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000
FXUS61 KRNK 180208
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1008 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
AND COOL THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ALONG THE GULF COAST ON SATURDAY BRINGING CLOUDY SKIES AND
A CHANCE OF RAIN TO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1003 PM EDT THURSDAY...

FROST ADVISORY REMAIN IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS
OVERNIGHT. 1042 MB HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE
EAST AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ENTERING THE GULF OF MEXICO. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN
THE COLDER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO AROUND 40 ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF
THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY.
HIGHS TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

AS OF 715 PM EDT THURSDAY...

EVENING UPDATE INCLUDED TWEAKING HOURLY GRIDS...ESPECIALLY WITH
HIGHER THAN EXPECTED DEW POINTS THIS EVENING. AS TEMPERATURES
RADIATE DOWN TONIGHT...AREAS OF FROST WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD.
ALSO ADDED FROST TO THE WEATHER GRIDS ACROSS SOUTHSIDE TO COINCIDE
WITH FROST ADVISORY.


AS OF 215 PM EDT THURSDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LIFT OUT OF NEW
ENGLAND...WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ENTERING THE GULF OF MEXICO.
HOWEVER...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STILL EXERT ENOUGH INFLUENCE SUCH
THAT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT. WITH
CURRENT DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S...DECOUPLING IS EXPECTED
AGAIN AND MIN TEMPS MAY SLIP A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE.
THUS...TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH EVEN ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT FOR
FROST...AND AFTER COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORS TO THE
SOUTH...EXPANDED THE CURRENT FROST ADVISORY TO OUR COMMON BORDER
WITH THE RALEIGH WFO. ACROSS THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT AND SOUTHERN
SHENANDOAH...TEMPS MAY VERY WELL REACH 32F OR BELOW AGAIN...BUT WILL
JUST KEEP A FROST INSTEAD OF A FREEZE FOR CONSISTENCY. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE WELL AHEAD OF THE GULF OF MEXICO/SOUTHEAST CONUS
DISTURBANCE...BUT PROBABLY NOT IN ENOUGH TIME TO STUNT DECOUPLING.
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND LOWER ON FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE
MADE A LARGE SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH REGARDS TO THE GULF OF MEXICO
SOUTHEAST CONUS DISTURBANCE TRACK...SUCH THAT SOME SLT CHC POPS WERE
NECESSARY ACROSS NW NC BY LATE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...

MODELS ARE CONTINUING TREND OF DEVELOPING A VIGOROUS SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF COAST BY EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. BOTH
EURO/GFS SHOW A CLOSED MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN FL BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHEAST UNDER
DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW EAST OF THE UPPER SYSTEM. HAVE RAISED
POPS TO LIKELY IN THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA TO CHC OVER CENTRAL
SECTIONS BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT AND MAINTAINED CHANCE THRU MUCH OF
THE DAY OVER AT LEAST SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA. THIS IS CONSIDERABLY
WETTER SOLUTION THAN EXISTING FORECAST BUT LESS THAN HPC QPF
SOLUTION WITH HAS UP TO 0.50 INCHES OVER OUR NC COUNTIES. KEPT
AMOUNTS GENERALLY TO UNDER 0.25 INCHES BUT IF THE NORTHWARD MODEL
TREND SOLUTION CONTINUES COULD WELL SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS. WITH UPPER
SYSTEM AND SURFACE REFLECTION TRACKING MORE OR LESS DUE EAST HAVE
KEPT NORTHERN THIRD OF CWA DRY ON SATURDAY. SE LOW CONTINUES INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY TAKING ANY PRECIP WITH IT AND
PROVIDING BETTER WEATHER FOR EASTER SUNDAY. WITH SURFACE RIDGE
REMAINING SLOW TO DISLODGE FROM NEW ENGLAND SHOULD SEE EASTERLY
FLOW PERSIST. IT WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT COOLER AS A RESULT GENERALLY
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF MID/LATE APRIL CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH THE ATLANTIC SYSTEM WELL OUT
TO SEA AND A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. MODELS BRING A FAIRLY
STRONG FRONT THROUGH THE CWA ON TUESDAY WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS DEPENDING ON MESOSCALE
FORCING IN PLACE AT THAT TIME. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND COOLER TEMPS BEHIND
THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM EDT THURSDAY...

VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. EASTERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN
AND BECOME CALM FOR SEVERAL HOURS TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES WILL THROW HIGH CLOUDS IN OUR
DIRECTION LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST. LATEST MODELS
SUGGEST THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TAKE A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK
THAN PAST SEVERAL RUNS...MEANING AN A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME MVF
AND/OR RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER. VFR FOR SUNDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO BRING MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR CIGS
AND -SHRA TO THE AREA DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL EARLY TO MID PART OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ022>024-
     032>035-043>047-058-059.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ004>006.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PC
NEAR TERM...KK/KM/RCS
SHORT TERM...DS/PC
LONG TERM...PC
AVIATION...KM/RCS



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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 180137
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
937 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFF TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINTAINING A COOL
NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST SATURDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM
EASTERN CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A ~1044MB HIGH OVER
ATLANTIC CANADA...WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE PLAINS. A
BAND OF SC HAS MOVED ONSHORE THIS EVENING AND HAS OVERSPREAD THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA. ELSEWHERE...THE SKY IS MOSTLY CLEAR.
THIS GENERAL TREND SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...AS THE COASTAL SC
IS NOT EXPECTED TO INTRUDE VERY FAR INLAND.

THE WIND WILL BE NEAR CALM ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS WITH A
NORTHEAST BREEZE PREVAILING EAST OF INTERSTATE 95. THE AIRMASS HAS
MODIFIED AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. IT
APPEARS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOW ENOUGH FOR PATCHY FROST TO
FORM AT NORMALLY COOLER LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE
95 AND EAST ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA. LOWS RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S INLAND TO AROUND 40 NEAR THE COAST.

THE SKY WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO
HOLD THE TEMPERATURE DOWN WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY
MILDER THAN THOSE OF THURSDAY. HIGHS RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S
AT THE COASTLINE TO AROUND 60 WELL INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
FORM A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE GULF COAST STATES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THIS IN TURN WILL PRODUCE A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO TO OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THE GFS HAS BEEN
FARTHER NORTH WITH THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED PCPN THAN OTHER
MODELS. THE NAM KEEPS PCPN TO THE SOUTH. THE EURO DID THE SAME AT
00Z BUT BROUGHT PCPN INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA LATE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. USED CONTINUITY AND COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND HAVE 30 TO 40 PERCENT POPS OVER THE NORTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA COUNTIES...MAINLY FROM 06Z/2AM EDT
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 18Z/2PM EDT SATURDAY. SLIGHT CHC POPS
REACH NORTH THROUGH THE METRO RICHMOND AREA AND THROUGH CUMBERLAND
COUNTY. TOTAL QPF IS GENERALLY UNDER ONE QUARTER INCH.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL HAVE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE NORTH WHERE THERE
WILL BE LITTLE OR NO PCPN AND SOME SUNSHINE. THERE READINGS SHOULD
BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO POSSIBLY 70 AND AROUND 60 IN THE NORTH
CAROLINA COUNTIES AND NEAR THE COAST. TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE MID
TO UPR 60S OVER INLAND AREAS ON SUNDAY. READINGS HOLD IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S TOWARD THE COAST. LOWS GENERALLY RUN IN THE 40S
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA SUN NIGHT INTO MON BEFORE SLIDING OFF
THE COAST MON NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A COASTAL LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO
RESIDE WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THIS TIME. AS
THE SFC HIGH SLIDES OFF THE COAST MON NIGHT...A RELATIVELY FLAT
(WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN TWD THE AREA MON
NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON TUE/TUE
NIGHT...MOVING OFFSHORE BY WED MORNING. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A
SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW TRAVELING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER
SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. GFS MODEL
DATA CONTINUES TO BE FAST BUT IS STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER
ALIGNMENT WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S
POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE NC COASTS). AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH WED...THE
TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM
SECTOR DEVELOPS. OVERALL...EXPECT A WARMING TREND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
HIGHS WILL BE AT TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S (MID-UPPER 60S POSSIBLE AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST). LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE 50S EACH NIGHT NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ARE COMBINING TO KEEP WINDS
FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH 950 TO 850 MB WINDS BECOMING MORE EAST.
ALL MODELS SHOW SIMILAR TIMING OF CLOUDS ARRIVING TONIGHT. WILL BRING
BROKEN MVFR CIGS TO ALL BUT RIC DURING THE EVENING WITH MVFR CIGS
REACHING RIC AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT MOISTURE ON
FRIDAY WITH CLOUDS LIFTING TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...DUE TO CONTINUED STRONG HI PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...THE CHC FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
FRI NGT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE PORTIONS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHC
FOR SHOWERS FRI NGT. ALSO STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY FOR
CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AS A LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FLAGS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED FOR NRN CHES BAY. WINDS ARE AVERAGING
10 TO 15 KT WHICH IS BELOW SCA WIND SPEED CRITERIA. SCA FLAGS REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR SRN CHES BAY...CURRITUCK SOUND AND ALL COASTAL
WATERS. SCA FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS WAS EXTENDED THROUGH SAT
EVENING DUE TO SEAS REMAINING AT OR ABOVE 5 FT DUE TO PROLONGED
ONSHORE WINDS DURING THIS TIME. SEAS MAY EVEN STAY ABOVE 5 FT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HI PRES SLIDES ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT THRU FRI...MAINTAINING NE
WINDS OVR THE WTRS. FRI NGT THRU MON...LO PRES WILL TRACK ACRS
FLORIDA...THEN ENE WELL OFF THE MID ATLC CST AS HI PRES MOVES FM
THE NRN GRT LAKES EWD ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND OFF THE CST. THIS
SCENARIO WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY N OR NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT ACRS
THE WTRS FRI NGT THRU MON. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SCA WINDS TO
OCCUR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN DUE TO A QUICK SHOT OF COOLER AIR PASSING
OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE REGION. WILL MONITOR THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LSA
NEAR TERM...LSA/AJZ
SHORT TERM...LSA
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...DAP/JAB
MARINE...BMD




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000
FXUS61 KLWX 180134 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
934 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL STRETCH SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA SATURDAY. A SECOND
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CAD REGIME CONTINUES OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AS 1042 MB HIGH
HOLDS IN PLACE JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. PERSISTENT EASTERLY
FETCH HAS DEVELOPED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION SLOWLY
PUSHING WEST ACROSS THE BAY. WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 AS MARINE
LAYER SETTLES IN. BIG QUESTION REMAINS HOW FAR WEST THE MARINE
LAYER PUSHES. THINKING IT COULD CLIP DC AND BALTIMORE METRO AREAS
BRINGING STRATUS DECK BY DAWN. FURTHER WEST...DRIER AIR WITH ONLY
SOME CIRRUS WILL HELP RADIATIONAL COOLING PROCESSES AND FALLING
TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. FROST ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE SAME COUNTIES.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NUDGE A LITTLE EAST ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WE/LL LIKELY HAVE MORE CLOUD COVER
ON FRIDAY COMPARED TO TODAY...BUT FORECAST WILL BE DRY. MAXIMA
SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM LOWS WILL SPLIT THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND. IN THE NORTHERN STREAM...LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES WILL PRODUCE A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL DETERIORATE AS IT
MOVES OVER THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. THIS FRONT WILL BE DRY BY THE
TIME IT REACHES OUR AREA SATURDAY MORNING...THOUGH IT COULD PROVIDE
A BIT OF A REINFORCEMENT OF COOL AIR FOR THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

THE FEATURE THAT WILL HAVE A STRONGER INFLUENCE ON THE MID ATLANTIC
WEATHER WILL BE A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW THAT WILL CUT OFF FROM THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE GULF STATES FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR THE GA/FL BORDER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE
PRIMARY MODEL DIVERGENCE AT THIS TIME IS WITH THE TRACK OF THIS LOW
AND THE SIZE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH IT. ECMWF
AND NAM KEEP US DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE THE GFS IS WETTER
OVERALL...WITH PRECIPITATION COVERING THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. HAVE LEFT ANY CHANCE OF POPS OUT OF
THE FORECAST GIVEN THAT THE GFS IS CLEARLY THE OUTLIER.

EXPECT PLEANTY OF SUNSHINE TO REACH THE GROUND BETWEEN SOME DAYTIME
CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS WEEKEND EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR THE MOST SOUTHERLY
TIER OF COUNTIES IN THE CWA AS STRATUS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW STAY MOSTLY TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. WITH THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH AND
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH SOME COLD AIR WEDGING IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH NORTH TO NERLY 850 MB FLOW A STRONG CAD EVENT
IS NOT EXPECTED...MOSTLY JUST A WEAK INFLUX OF COOL AIR AT THE
SURFACE WHICH SHOULD BE EASILY OVERCOME BY DAYTIME HEATING. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S SAT AND SUN AND WEAK NWRLY FLOW WILL
KEEP NIGHTS COLD...WITH SAT AND SUN LOWS NEAR 40 EVERYWHERE EXCEPT
THE CITIES...WHERE MID TO UPPER 40S ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS OFF
THE GA/FL COAST AND EAST TOWARDS BERMUDA...WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. A
GENERALLY LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN
THESE TWO FEATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS AT OR ABOVE 70 FOR MOST OF
THE AREA /WARMEST WEST AWAY FROM THE COOLER WATER/ AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50.

THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE A
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY WITH
VARYING INTENSITY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO
THE AREA...AND COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEPENDING
ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES WITH BRIEFLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO START WARMING AGAIN BY NEXT THURSDAY AS THE
HIGH PUSHES TO THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONFIDENCE INCREASING FOR SUB VFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 09-13Z
FRIDAY. PERSISTENT EASTERLY WIND WILL AID IN STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT...AFFECTING TERMINALS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. IFR
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY KBWI/KMTN/KDCA. STRATUS WILL LIFT BY MID
MORNING WITH CIRRUS AND VFR THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS IN EASTERLY FLOW OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS IS
FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE WATERS OVERNIGHT. CURRENT FORECASTS
ARE FOR WINDS UNDER SCA CRITERIA FRIDAY.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THE LOWER MARYLAND
CHESAPEAKE BAY SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC SEABOARD. SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN GENERALLY LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN MODEST SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT BY TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY IN GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND DEPARTING COLD
FRONT AND AHEAD OF APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MDZ004>007-
     009>011.
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ036>040-042-
     050-051-501-502.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ531>534-
     536>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...CEB
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...CEB/KRW/DFH
MARINE...CEB/KRW/DFH








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 172338
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
738 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFF TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINTAINING A COOL
NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST SATURDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM
EASTERN CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A STRONG HIGH OVER MAINE AND NEW BRUNSWICK WITH
RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLC. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
PLAINS STATES WILL MOVE TO THE EAST.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH THIN CLOUDS WERE INDICATED BY SATELLITE BUT
SUNSHINE PREVAILED EXCEPT ON THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE. IN THIS AREA
STRATOCUMULUS COVERED THE SKY DURING PART OF THE DAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WERE WELL INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES INLAND WITH
READINGS OF AROUND 50 TOWARD THE COAST.

THE SKY WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY
TOWARD THE COAST. WINDS WILL BE NEAR CALM ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS
WITH A NORTHEAST BREEZE PREVAILING EAST OF INTERSTATE 95. THE
AIRMASS HAS MODIFIED AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING. IT APPEARS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOW ENOUGH FOR
PATCHY FROST TO FORM AT NORMALLY COOLER LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY
WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 AND EAST ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL
VIRGINIA. LOWS RANGE FROM THE MID 30S INLAND TO AROUND 40 NEAR THE
COAST.

THE SKY WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO
HOLD THE TEMPERATURE DOWN WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY
MILDER THAN THOSE OF THURSDAY. HIGHS RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S
AT THE COASTLINE TO AROUND 60 WELL INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
FORM A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE GULF COAST STATES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THIS IN TURN WILL PRODUCE A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO TO OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THE GFS HAS BEEN
FARTHER NORTH WITH THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED PCPN THAN OTHER
MODELS. THE NAM KEEPS PCPN TO THE SOUTH. THE EURO DID THE SAME AT
00Z BUT BROUGHT PCPN INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA LATE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. USED CONTINUITY AND COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND HAVE 30 TO 40 PERCENT POPS OVER THE NORTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA COUNTIES...MAINLY FROM 06Z/2AM EDT
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 18Z/2PM EDT SATURDAY. SLIGHT CHC POPS
REACH NORTH THROUGH THE METRO RICHMOND AREA AND THROUGH CUMBERLAND
COUNTY. TOTAL QPF IS GENERALLY UNDER ONE QUARTER INCH.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL HAVE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOU

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE NORTH WHERE THERE
WILL BE LITTLE OR NO PCPN AND SOME SUNSHINE. THERE READINGS SHOULD
BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO POSSIBLY 70 AND AROUND 60 IN THE NORTH
CAROLINA COUNTIES AND NEAR THE COAST. TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE MID
TO UPR 60S OVER INLAND AREAS ON SUNDAY. READINGS HOLD IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S TOWARD THE COAST. LOWS GENERALLY RUN IN THE 40S
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA SUN NIGHT INTO MON BEFORE SLIDING OFF
THE COAST MON NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A COASTAL LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO
RESIDE WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THIS TIME. AS
THE SFC HIGH SLIDES OFF THE COAST MON NIGHT...A RELATIVELY FLAT
(WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN TWD THE AREA MON
NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON TUE/TUE
NIGHT...MOVING OFFSHORE BY WED MORNING. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A
SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW TRAVELING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER
SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. GFS MODEL
DATA CONTINUES TO BE FAST BUT IS STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER
ALIGNMENT WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S
POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE NC COASTS). AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH WED...THE
TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM
SECTOR DEVELOPS. OVERALL...EXPECT A WARMING TREND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
HIGHS WILL BE AT TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S (MID-UPPER 60S POSSIBLE AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST). LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE 50S EACH NIGHT NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ARE COMBINING TO KEEP WINDS
FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH 950 TO 850 MB WINDS BECOMING MORE EAST.
ALL MODELS SHOW SIMILAR TIMING OF CLOUDS ARRIVING TONIGHT. WILL BRING
BROKEN MVFR CIGS TO ALL BUT RIC DURING THE EVENING WITH MVFR CIGS
REACHING RIC AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT MOISTURE ON
FRIDAY WITH CLOUDS LIFTING TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...DUE TO CONTINUED STRONG HI PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...THE CHC FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
FRI NGT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE PORTIONS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHC
FOR SHOWERS FRI NGT. ALSO STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY FOR
CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AS A LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FLAGS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED FOR NRN CHES BAY. WINDS ARE AVERAGING
10 TO 15 KT WHICH IS BELOW SCA WIND SPEED CRITERIA. SCA FLAGS REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR SRN CHES BAY...CURRITUCK SOUND AND ALL COASTAL
WATERS. SCA FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS WAS EXTENDED THROUGH SAT
EVENING DUE TO SEAS REMAINING AT OR ABOVE 5 FT DUE TO PROLONGED
ONSHORE WINDS DURING THIS TIME. SEAS MAY EVEN STAY ABOVE 5 FT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HI PRES SLIDES ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT THRU FRI...MAINTAINING NE
WINDS OVR THE WTRS. FRI NGT THRU MON...LO PRES WILL TRACK ACRS
FLORIDA...THEN ENE WELL OFF THE MID ATLC CST AS HI PRES MOVES FM
THE NRN GRT LAKES EWD ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND OFF THE CST. THIS
SCENARIO WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY N OR NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT ACRS
THE WTRS FRI NGT THRU MON. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SCA WINDS TO
OCCUR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN DUE TO A QUICK SHOT OF COOLER AIR PASSING
OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE REGION. WILL MONITOR THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LSA
NEAR TERM...LSA
SHORT TERM...LSA
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...DAP/JAB
MARINE...BMD







000
FXUS61 KRNK 172319
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
719 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
AND COOL THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ALONG THE GULF COAST ON SATURDAY BRINGING CLOUDY SKIES AND
A CHANCE OF RAIN TO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM EDT THURSDAY...

EVENING UPDATE INCLUDED TWEAKING HOURLY GRIDS...ESPECIALLY WITH
HIGHER THAN EXPECTED DEW POINTS THIS EVENING. AS TEMPERATURES
RADIATE DOWN TONIGHT...AREAS OF FROST WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD.
ALSO ADDED FROST TO THE WEATHER GRIDS ACROSS SOUTHSIDE TO COINCIDE
WITH FROST ADVISORY.


AS OF 215 PM EDT THURSDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LIFT OUT OF NEW
ENGLAND...WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ENTERING THE GULF OF MEXICO.
HOWEVER...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STILL EXERT ENOUGH INFLUENCE SUCH
THAT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT. WITH
CURRENT DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S...DECOUPLING IS EXPECTED
AGAIN AND MIN TEMPS MAY SLIP A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE.
THUS...TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH EVEN ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT FOR
FROST...AND AFTER COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORS TO THE
SOUTH...EXPANDED THE CURRENT FROST ADVISORY TO OUR COMMON BORDER
WITH THE RALEIGH WFO. ACROSS THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT AND SOUTHERN
SHENANDOAH...TEMPS MAY VERY WELL REACH 32F OR BELOW AGAIN...BUT WILL
JUST KEEP A FROST INSTEAD OF A FREEZE FOR CONSISTENCY. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE WELL AHEAD OF THE GULF OF MEXICO/SOUTHEAST CONUS
DISTURBANCE...BUT PROBABLY NOT IN ENOUGH TIME TO STUNT DECOUPLING.
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND LOWER ON FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE
MADE A LARGE SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH REGARDS TO THE GULF OF MEXICO
SOUTHEAST CONUS DISTURBANCE TRACK...SUCH THAT SOME SLT CHC POPS WERE
NECESSARY ACROSS NW NC BY LATE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...

MODELS ARE CONTINUING TREND OF DEVELOPING A VIGOROUS SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF COAST BY EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. BOTH
EURO/GFS SHOW A CLOSED MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN FL BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHEAST UNDER
DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW EAST OF THE UPPER SYSTEM. HAVE RAISED
POPS TO LIKELY IN THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA TO CHC OVER CENTRAL
SECTIONS BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT AND MAINTAINED CHANCE THRU MUCH OF
THE DAY OVER AT LEAST SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA. THIS IS CONSIDERABLY
WETTER SOLUTION THAN EXISTING FORECAST BUT LESS THAN HPC QPF
SOLUTION WITH HAS UP TO 0.50 INCHES OVER OUR NC COUNTIES. KEPT
AMOUNTS GENERALLY TO UNDER 0.25 INCHES BUT IF THE NORTHWARD MODEL
TREND SOLUTION CONTINUES COULD WELL SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS. WITH UPPER
SYSTEM AND SURFACE REFLECTION TRACKING MORE OR LESS DUE EAST HAVE
KEPT NORTHERN THIRD OF CWA DRY ON SATURDAY. SE LOW CONTINUES INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY TAKING ANY PRECIP WITH IT AND
PROVIDING BETTER WEATHER FOR EASTER SUNDAY. WITH SURFACE RIDGE
REMAINING SLOW TO DISLODGE FROM NEW ENGLAND SHOULD SEE EASTERLY
FLOW PERSIST. IT WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT COOLER AS A RESULT GENERALLY
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF MID/LATE APRIL CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH THE ATLANTIC SYSTEM WELL OUT
TO SEA AND A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. MODELS BRING A FAIRLY
STRONG FRONT THROUGH THE CWA ON TUESDAY WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS DEPENDING ON MESOSCALE
FORCING IN PLACE AT THAT TIME. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND COOLER TEMPS BEHIND
THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM EDT THURSDAY...

VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. EASTERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN
AND BECOME CALM FOR SEVERAL HOURS TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES WILL THROW HIGH CLOUDS IN OUR
DIRECTION LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST. LATEST MODELS
SUGGEST THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TAKE A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK
THAN PAST SEVERAL RUNS...MEANING AN A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME MVF
AND/OR RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER. VFR FOR SUNDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO BRING MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR CIGS
AND -SHRA TO THE AREA DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL EARLY TO MID PART OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ022>024-
     032>035-043>047-058-059.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ004>006.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PC
NEAR TERM...KM/RCS
SHORT TERM...DS/PC
LONG TERM...PC
AVIATION...KM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 172010
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
410 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFF TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINTAINING A COOL
NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST SATURDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM
EASTERN CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A STRONG HIGH OVER MAINE AND NEW BRUNSWICK WITH
RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLC. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
PLAINS STATES WILL MOVE TO THE EAST.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH THIN CLOUDS WERE INDICATED BY SATELLITE BUT
SUNSHINE PREVAILED EXCEPT ON THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE. IN THIS AREA
     STRATOCUMULUS COVERED THE SKY DURING PART OF THE DAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WERE WELL INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES INLAND WITH
READINGS OF AROUND 50 TOWARD THE COAST.

THE SKY WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY
TOWARD THE COAST. WINDS WILL BE NEAR CALM ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS
WITH A NORTHEAST BREEZE PREVAILING EAST OF INTERSTATE 95. THE
AIRMASS HAS MODIFIED AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING. IT APPEARS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOW ENOUGH FOR
PATCHY FROST TO FORM AT NORMALLY COOLER LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY
WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 AND EAST ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL
VIRGINIA. LOWS RANGE FROM THE MID 30S INLAND TO AROUND 40 NEAR THE
COAST.

THE SKY WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO
HOLD THE TEMPERATURE DOWN WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY
MILDER THAN THOSE OF THURSDAY. HIGHS RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S
AT THE COASTLINE TO AROUND 60 WELL INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
FORM A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE GULF COAST STATES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THIS IN TURN WILL PRODUCE A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO TO OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THE GFS HAS BEEN
FARTHER NORTH WITH THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED PCPN THAN OTHER
MODELS. THE NAM KEEPS PCPN TO THE SOUTH. THE EURO DID THE SAME AT
00Z BUT BROUGHT PCPN INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA LATE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. USED CONTINUITY AND COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND HAVE 30 TO 40 PERCENT POPS OVER THE NORTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA COUNTIES...MAINLY FROM 06Z/2AM EDT
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 18Z/2PM EDT SATURDAY. SLIGHT CHC POPS
REACH NORTH THROUGH THE METRO RICHMOND AREA AND THROUGH CUMBERLAND
COUNTY. TOTAL QPF IS GENERALLY UNDER ONE QUARTER INCH.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL HAVE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOU

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE NORTH WHERE THERE
WILL BE LITTLE OR NO PCPN AND SOME SUNSHINE. THERE READINGS SHOULD
BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO POSSIBLY 70 AND AROUND 60 IN THE NORTH
CAROLINA COUNTIES AND NEAR THE COAST. TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE MID
TO UPR 60S OVER INLAND AREAS ON SUNDAY. READINGS HOLD IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S TOWARD THE COAST. LOWS GENERALLY RUN IN THE 40S
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA SUN NIGHT INTO MON BEFORE SLIDING OFF
THE COAST MON NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A COASTAL LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO
RESIDE WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THIS TIME. AS
THE SFC HIGH SLIDES OFF THE COAST MON NIGHT...A RELATIVELY FLAT
(WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN TWD THE AREA MON
NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON TUE/TUE
NIGHT...MOVING OFFSHORE BY WED MORNING. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A
SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW TRAVELING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER
SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. GFS MODEL
DATA CONTINUES TO BE FAST BUT IS STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER
ALIGNMENT WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S
POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE NC COASTS). AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH WED...THE
TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM
SECTOR DEVELOPS. OVERALL...EXPECT A WARMING TREND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
HIGHS WILL BE AT TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S (MID-UPPER 60S POSSIBLE AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST). LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE 50S EACH NIGHT NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ARE COMBINING TO KEEP WINDS
FROM THE NORTHEAST. WINDS FROM 950 TO 850 MB ARE BECOMING MORE
EAST AND CAN SEE THE CLOUDS WORKING BACK INTO THE COAST LINE NOW.
THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW THESE CLOUDS RETURNING. USING THE
EXPERIMENTAL GOES MVFR PROBABILITY IMAGES CAN SEE THE PROBABILITY
OF CLOUDS BEING MVFR INCREASING OVER THE OCEAN. AT THIS TIME DO
NOT BELIEVE CIGS WILL DROP INTO THE IFR RANGE. HOWEVER THE SREF
PROBABILITIES DO SHOW SOME CHANCE ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOST EASTER
TERMINALS FOR THE PERIOD FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
NONE OF THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS ANYTHING BUT VFR
CONDITIONS. ALL MODELS SHOW SIMILAR TIMING ON THE CLOUDS ARRIVING
AND WILL BRING BROKEN MVFR CIGS TO ALL BUT RIC DURING THE EVENING
AND REACHING RIC AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT THE
MOISTURE ON FRIDAY WITH CLOUDS LIFTING TO VFR FROM THE WEST TO THE
EAST DURING THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...DUE TO CONTINUED RATHER STRONG HI PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...THE CHC FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN FRI NGT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE PORTIONS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHC
FOR SHOWERS FRI NGT. ALSO STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY FOR
CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AS A LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US BUT
BY SUNDAY SHOULD BE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FLAGS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED FOR NRN CHES BAY. WINDS ARE AVERAGING
10 TO 15 KT WHICH IS BELOW SCA WIND SPEED CRITERIA. SCA FLAGS REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER JAMES RIVER...SRN CHES BAY...CURRITUCK SOUND
AND ALL COASTAL WATERS. SCA FOR THE LOWER JAMES RIVER WAS EXTENDED
UNTIL 7 PM TONIGHT DUE TO NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT...AND SCA FOR ALL
COASTAL WATERS WAS EXTENDED THROUGH SAT EVENING DUE TO SEAS
REMAINING AT OR ABOVE 5 FT DUE TO PROLONGED ONSHORE WINDS DURING
THIS TIME. SEAS MAY EVEN STAY ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
HI PRES SLIDES ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
TONIGHT THRU FRI...MAINTAINING NE WINDS OVR THE WTRS. FRI NGT THRU
MON...LO PRES WILL TRACK ACRS FLORIDA...THEN ENE WELL OFF THE MID
ATLC CST AS HI PRES MOVES FM THE NRN GRT LAKES EWD ACRS NEW ENGLAND
AND OFF THE CST. THIS SCENARIO WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY N OR NE WINDS
10 TO 15 KT ACRS THE WTRS FRI NGT THRU MON. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
SCA WINDS TO OCCUR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN DUE TO A QUICK SHOT OF COOLER
AIR PASSING OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE REGION. WILL MONITOR THROUGHOUT
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LSA
NEAR TERM...LSA
SHORT TERM...LSA
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...TMG/JAB
MARINE...TMG/JAB







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 172006
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
406 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFF TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINTAINING A COOL
NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST SATURDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH FROM EASTERN CANADA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A STRONG HIGH OVER MAINE AND NEW BRUNSWICK WITH
RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLC. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
PLAINS STATES WILL MOVE TO THE EAST.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH THIN CLOUDS WERE INDICATED BY SATELLITE BUT
SUNSHINE PREVAILED EXCEPT ON THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE. IN THIS AREA
...STRATOCUMULUS COVERED THE SKY DURING PART OF THE DAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WERE WELL INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES INLAND WITH
READINGS OF AROUND 50 TOWARD THE COAST.

THE SKY WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY
TOWARD THE COAST. WINDS WILL BE NEAR CALM ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS
WITH A NORTHEAST BREEZE PREVAILING EAST OF INTERSTATE 95. THE
AIRMASS HAS MODIFIED AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING. IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE COOL ENOUGH FOR PATCHY FROST TO
FORM AT NORMALLY COOLER LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 95
AND EAST ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA. LOWS RANGE FROM THE
MID 30S INLAND TO AROUND 40 NEAR THE COAST.

THE SKY WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO
HOLD THE TEMPERATURE DOWN WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY
MILDER THAN THOSE OF THURSDAY. HIGHS RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S
AT THE COASTLINE TO AROUND 60 WELL INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
FORM A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE GULF COAST STATES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THIS IN TURN WILL PRODUCE A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO TO OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THE GFS HAS BEEN
FURTHER NORTH WITH THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED PCPN THAN OTHER
MODELS. THE NAM KEEPS PCPN TO THE SOUTH. THE EURO DID THE SAME AT
00Z BUT BROUGHT PCPN INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. USED CONTINUITY AND COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES AND HAVE 30 TO 40 PERCENT POPS OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHERN VIRGINIA COUNTIES...MAINLY FROM 06Z/2AM EDT SATURDAY
MORNING THROUGH 18Z/2PM EDT SATURDAY.  SLIGHT CHC POPS REACH NORTH
THROUGH THE METRO RICHMOND AREA AND THROUGH CUMBERLAND COUNTY. TOTAL
QPF IS GENERALLY UNDER ONE QUARTER INCH.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL HAVE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOU

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE NORTH WHERE THERE
WILL BE LITTLE OR NO PCPN AND SOME SUNSHINE. THERE READINGS SHOULD
BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO POSSIBLY 70 AND AROUND 60 IN THE NORTH
CAROLINA COUNTIES AND NEAR THE COAST. TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE MID
TO UPR 60S OVER INLAND AREAS ON SUNDAY. READINGS HOLD IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S TOWARD THE COAST. LOWS GENERALLY RUN IN THE 40S
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA SUN NIGHT INTO MON BEFORE SLIDING OFF
THE COAST MON NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A COASTAL LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO
RESIDE WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THIS TIME. AS
THE SFC HIGH SLIDES OFF THE COAST MON NIGHT...A RELATIVELY FLAT
(WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN TWD THE AREA MON
NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON TUE/TUE
NIGHT...MOVING OFFSHORE BY WED MORNING. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A
SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW TRAVELING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER
SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. GFS MODEL
DATA CONTINUES TO BE FAST BUT IS STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER
ALIGNMENT WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S
POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE NC COASTS). AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH WED...THE
TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM
SECTOR DEVELOPS. OVERALL...EXPECT A WARMING TREND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
HIGHS WILL BE AT TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S (MID-UPPER 60S POSSIBLE AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST). LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE 50S EACH NIGHT NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ARE COMBINING TO KEEP WINDS
FROM THE NORTHEAST. WINDS FROM 950 TO 850 MB ARE BECOMING MORE
EAST AND CAN SEE THE CLOUDS WORKING BACK INTO THE COAST LINE NOW.
THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW THESE CLOUDS RETURNING. USING THE
EXPERIMENTAL GOES MVFR PROBABILITY IMAGES CAN SEE THE PROBABILITY
OF CLOUDS BEING MVFR INCREASING OVER THE OCEAN. AT THIS TIME DO
NOT BELIEVE CIGS WILL DROP INTO THE IFR RANGE. HOWEVER THE SREF
PROBABILITIES DO SHOW SOME CHANCE ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOST EASTER
TERMINALS FOR THE PERIOD FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
NONE OF THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS ANYTHING BUT VFR
CONDITIONS. ALL MODELS SHOW SIMILAR TIMING ON THE CLOUDS ARRIVING
AND WILL BRING BROKEN MVFR CIGS TO ALL BUT RIC DURING THE EVENING
AND REACHING RIC AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT THE
MOISTURE ON FRIDAY WITH CLOUDS LIFTING TO VFR FROM THE WEST TO THE
EAST DURING THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...DUE TO CONTINUED RATHER STRONG HI PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...THE CHC FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN FRI NGT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE PORTIONS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHC
FOR SHOWERS FRI NGT. ALSO STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY FOR
CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AS A LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US BUT
BY SUNDAY SHOULD BE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FLAGS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED FOR NRN CHES BAY. WINDS ARE AVERAGING
10 TO 15 KT WHICH IS BELOW SCA WIND SPEED CRITERIA. SCA FLAGS REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER JAMES RIVER...SRN CHES BAY...CURRITUCK SOUND
AND ALL COASTAL WATERS. SCA FOR THE LOWER JAMES RIVER WAS EXTENDED
UNTIL 7 PM TONIGHT DUE TO NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT...AND SCA FOR ALL
COASTAL WATERS WAS EXTENDED THROUGH SAT EVENING DUE TO SEAS
REMAINING AT OR ABOVE 5 FT DUE TO PROLONGED ONSHORE WINDS DURING
THIS TIME. SEAS MAY EVEN STAY ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
HI PRES SLIDES ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
TONIGHT THRU FRI...MAINTAINING NE WINDS OVR THE WTRS. FRI NGT THRU
MON...LO PRES WILL TRACK ACRS FLORIDA...THEN ENE WELL OFF THE MID
ATLC CST AS HI PRES MOVES FM THE NRN GRT LAKES EWD ACRS NEW ENGLAND
AND OFF THE CST. THIS SCENARIO WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY N OR NE WINDS
10 TO 15 KT ACRS THE WTRS FRI NGT THRU MON. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
SCA WINDS TO OCCUR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN DUE TO A QUICK SHOT OF COOLER
AIR PASSING OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE REGION. WILL MONITOR THROUGHOUT
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LSA
NEAR TERM...LSA
SHORT TERM...LSA
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...TMG/JAB
MARINE...TMG/JAB







000
FXUS61 KLWX 171935 CCA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
301 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL STRETCH SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA SATURDAY. A SECOND
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER MAINE CONTINUES TO EXTEND SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING ACROSS THE CWA...AND ALSO A FEW STRATOCU ADVECTING
WESTWARD INTO N/C MARYLAND. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES HAVE
PREVAILED UNDER A MODIFIED COOL AIR MASS.

TONIGHT WILL BE DRY AND COOL AGAIN...ALTHOUGH PERHAPS NOT QUITE AS
COOL AS LAST NIGHT UNDER A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW REGIME. IT IS
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH LOW CLOUD COVER MAY PUSH WESTWARD FROM
THE OCEAN. BEST CHANCE FOR STRATUS APPEARS TO BE IN SOUTHERN
MARYLAND INTO THE NORTHERN VA PIEDMONT. THIS WOULD ALSO TEND TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE HIGHER. BUT FURTHER NORTHWEST...MID 30S/LIGHT
WINDS SUPPORTS A FROST ADVISORY IN THOSE COUNTIES EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE THAT ARE IN THE OFFICIAL GROWING SEASON. THIS LASTS TIL 8 AM
FRIDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NUDGE A LITTLE EAST ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WE/LL LIKELY HAVE MORE CLOUD COVER
ON FRIDAY COMPARED TO TODAY...BUT FORECAST WILL BE DRY. MAXIMA
SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM LOWS WILL SPLIT THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND. IN THE NORTHERN STREAM...LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES WILL PRODUCE A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL DETERIORATE AS IT
MOVES OVER THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. THIS FRONT WILL BE DRY BY THE
TIME IT REACHES OUR AREA SATURDAY MORNING...THOUGH IT COULD PROVIDE
A BIT OF A REINFORCEMENT OF COOL AIR FOR THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

THE FEATURE THAT WILL HAVE A STRONGER INFLUENCE ON THE MID ATLANTIC
WEATHER WILL BE A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW THAT WILL CUT OFF FROM THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE GULF STATES FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR THE GA/FL BORDER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE
PRIMARY MODEL DIVERGENCE AT THIS TIME IS WITH THE TRACK OF THIS LOW
AND THE SIZE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH IT. ECMWF
AND NAM KEEP US DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE THE GFS IS WETTER
OVERALL...WITH PRECIPITATION COVERING THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. HAVE LEFT ANY CHANCE OF POPS OUT OF
THE FORECAST GIVEN THAT THE GFS IS CLEARLY THE OUTLIER.

EXPECT PLEANTY OF SUNSHINE TO REACH THE GROUND BETWEEN SOME DAYTIME
CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS WEEKEND EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR THE MOST SOUTHERLY
TIER OF COUNTIES IN THE CWA AS STRATUS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW STAY MOSTLY TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. WITH THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH AND
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH SOME COLD AIR WEDGING IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH NORTH TO NERLY 850 MB FLOW A STRONG CAD EVENT
IS NOT EXPECTED...MOSTLY JUST A WEAK INFLUX OF COOL AIR AT THE
SURFACE WHICH SHOULD BE EASILY OVERCOME BY DAYTIME HEATING. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S SAT AND SUN AND WEAK NWRLY FLOW WILL
KEEP NIGHTS COLD...WITH SAT AND SUN LOWS NEAR 40 EVERYWHERE EXCEPT
THE CITIES...WHERE MID TO UPPER 40S ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS OFF
THE GA/FL COAST AND EAST TOWARDS BERMUDA...WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. A
GENERALLY LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN
THESE TWO FEATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS AT OR ABOVE 70 FOR MOST OF
THE AREA /WARMEST WEST AWAY FROM THE COOLER WATER/ AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50.

THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE A
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY WITH
VARYING INTENSITY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO
THE AREA...AND COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEPENDING
ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES WITH BRIEFLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO START WARMING AGAIN BY NEXT THURSDAY AS THE
HIGH PUSHES TO THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY UNDER LIGHT EAST FLOW.
SREFS SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF LOWER CIGS DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW SIDE...BUT GIVEN
EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE OCEAN THIS CAN/T BE RULED OUT.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS IN EASTERLY FLOW OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS IS
FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE ABATED A LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE AGAIN THIS EVENING IN E/SE FLOW. SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS
OF THE BAY INTO THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC INTO TONIGHT. CURRENT
FORECASTS ARE FOR WINDS UNDER SCA CRITERIA FRIDAY.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THE LOWER MARYLAND
CHESAPEAKE BAY SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC SEABOARD. SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN GENERALLY LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN MODEST SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT BY TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY IN GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND DEPARTING COLD
FRONT AND AHEAD OF APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THIS MORNING WAS ANOTHER ABNORMALLY COLD MORNING FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA EXPERIENCING LOW TEMPERATURES AT OR
BELOW FREEZING /AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL/. DESPITE THE
COLD...NO RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WERE OBSERVED. BELOW IS A LIST
OF WHAT THE RECORD LOWS ARE FOR TODAY COMPARED TO THE PRELIMINARY
LOW TEMPERATURES THAT WERE OBSERVED THIS MORNING.

SITE...RECORD........LOW TEMP...
DCA....26 F (1875)...39 F.......
BWI....26 F (1962)...30 F.......
IAD....27 F (1983)...28 F.......

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MDZ004>007-
     009>011.
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ036>040-042-
     050-051-501-502.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
ANZ532>534-537-     540-541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ531-536-538-539-542.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...CEB
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...BPP/CEB/DFH
MARINE...BPP/CEB/DFH











000
FXUS61 KRNK 171931
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
331 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
AND COOL THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ALONG THE GULF COAST ON SATURDAY BRINGING CLOUDY SKIES AND
A CHANCE OF RAIN TO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT THURSDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LIFT OUT OF NEW
ENGLAND...WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ENTERING THE GULF OF MEXICO.
HOWEVER...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STILL EXERT ENOUGH INFLUENCE SUCH
THAT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT. WITH
CURRENT DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S...DECOUPLING IS EXPECTED
AGAIN AND MIN TEMPS MAY SLIP A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE.
THUS...TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH EVEN ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT FOR
FROST...AND AFTER COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORS TO THE
SOUTH...EXPANDED THE CURRENT FROST ADVISORY TO OUR COMMON BORDER
WITH THE RALEIGH WFO. ACROSS THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT AND SOUTHERN
SHENANDOAH...TEMPS MAY VERY WELL REACH 32F OR BELOW AGAIN...BUT WILL
JUST KEEP A FROST INSTEAD OF A FREEZE FOR CONSISTENCY. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE WELL AHEAD OF THE GULF OF MEXICO/SOUTHEAST CONUS
DISTURBANCE...BUT PROBABLY NOT IN ENOUGH TIME TO STUNT DECOUPLING.
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND LOWER ON FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE
MADE A LARGE SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH REGARDS TO THE GULF OF MEXICO
SOUTHEAST CONUS DISTURBANCE TRACK...SUCH THAT SOME SLT CHC POPS WERE
NECESSARY ACROSS NW NC BY LATE DAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...

MODELS ARE CONTINUING TREND OF DEVELOPING A VIGOROUS SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF COAST BY EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. BOTH
EURO/GFS SHOW A CLOSED MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN FL BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHEAST UNDER
DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW EAST OF THE UPPER SYSTEM. HAVE RAISED
POPS TO LIKELY IN THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA TO CHC OVER CENTRAL
SECTIONS BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT AND MAINTAINED CHANCE THRU MUCH OF
THE DAY OVER AT LEAST SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA. THIS IS CONSIDERABLY
WETTER SOLUTION THAN EXISTING FORECAST BUT LESS THAN HPC QPF
SOLUTION WITH HAS UP TO 0.50 INCHES OVER OUR NC COUNTIES. KEPT
AMOUNTS GENERALLY TO UNDER 0.25 INCHES BUT IF THE NORTHWARD MODEL
TREND SOLUTION CONTINUES COULD WELL SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS. WITH UPPER
SYSTEM AND SURFACE REFLECTION TRACKING MORE OR LESS DUE EAST HAVE
KEPT NORTHERN THIRD OF CWA DRY ON SATURDAY. SE LOW CONTINUES INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY TAKING ANY PRECIP WITH IT AND
PROVIDING BETTER WEATHER FOR EASTER SUNDAY. WITH SURFACE RIDGE
REMAINING SLOW TO DISLODGE FROM NEW ENGLAND SHOULD SEE EASTERLY
FLOW PERSIST. IT WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT COOLER AS A RESULT GENERALLY
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF MID/LATE APRIL CLIMO.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH THE ATLANTIC SYSTEM WELL OUT
TO SEA AND A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. MODELS BRING A FAIRLY
STRONG FRONT THROUGH THE CWA ON TUESDAY WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS DEPENDING ON MESOSCALE
FORCING IN PLACE AT THAT TIME. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND COOLER TEMPS BEHIND
THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT THURSDAY...

VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. EASTERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN
AND BECOME CALM FOR SEVERAL HOURS TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES WILL THROW HIGH CLOUDS IN OUR
DIRECTION LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST. LATEST MODELS
SUGGEST THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TAKE A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK
THAN PAST SEVERAL RUNS...MEANING AN A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME MVF
AND/OR RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER. VFR FOR SUNDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO BRING MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR CIGS
AND -SHRA TO THE AREA DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL EARLY TO MID PART OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ022>024-
     032>035-043>047-058-059.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ004>006.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PC
NEAR TERM...KM
SHORT TERM...DS/PC
LONG TERM...PC
AVIATION...KM




000
FXUS61 KLWX 171901
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
301 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL STRETCH SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA SATURDAY. A SECOND
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER MAINE CONTINUES TO EXTEND SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING ACROSS THE CWA...AND ALSO A FEW STRATOCU ADVECTING
WESTWARD INTO N/C MARYLAND. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES HAVE
PREVAILED UNDER A MODIFIED COOL AIR MASS.

TONIGHT WILL BE DRY AND COOL AGAIN...ALTHOUGH PERHAPS NOT QUITE AS
COOL AS LAST NIGHT UNDER A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW REGIME. IT IS
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH LOW CLOUD COVER MAY PUSH WESTWARD FROM
THE OCEAN. BEST CHANCE FOR STRATUS APPEARS TO BE IN SOUTHERN
MARYLAND INTO THE NORTHERN VA PIEDMONT. THIS WOULD ALSO TEND TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE HIGHER. BUT FURTHER NORTHWEST...MID 30S/LIGHT
WINDS SUPPORTS A FROST ADVISORY IN THOSE COUNTIES EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE THAT ARE IN THE OFFICIAL GROWING SEASON. THIS LASTS TIL 8 AM
FRIDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NUDGE A LITTLE EAST ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WE/LL LIKELY HAVE MORE CLOUD COVER
ON FRIDAY COMPARED TO TODAY...BUT FORECAST WILL BE DRY. MAXIMA
SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM LOWS WILL SPLIT THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND. IN THE NORTHERN STREAM...LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES WILL PRODUCE A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL DETERIORATE AS IT
MOVES OVER THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. THIS FRONT WILL BE DRY BY THE
TIME IT REACHES OUR AREA SATURDAY MORNING...THOUGH IT COULD PROVIDE
A BIT OF A REINFORCEMENT OF COOL AIR FOR THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

THE FEATURE THAT WILL HAVE A STRONGER INFLUENCE ON THE MID ATLANTIC
WEATHER WILL BE A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW THAT WILL CUT OFF FROM THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE GULF STATES FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR THE GA/FL BORDER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE
PRIMARY MODEL DIVERGENCE AT THIS TIME IS WITH THE TRACK OF THIS LOW
AND THE SIZE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH IT. ECMWF
AND NAM KEEP US DRY THROUGH HE WEEKEND WHILE THE GFS IS WETTER
OVERALL...WITH PRECIPITATION COVERING THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. HAVE LEFT ANY CHANCE OF POPS OUT OF
THE FORECAST GIVEN THAT THE GFS IS CLEARLY THE OUTLIER.

DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR FOR THE WEEKEND WITH CLOUD
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW STAYING MOSTLY TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. WITH
THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH SOME COLD AIR
WEDGING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH NERLY 850 MB FLOW A
STRONG CAD EVENT IS NOT EXPECTED...MOSTLY JUST WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S SAT AND SUN
THANKS TO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THE WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
NIGHTS COLD...WITH SAT LOWS IN THE 30S AND SUNDAY LOWS NEAR 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS OFF
THE GA/FL COAST AND EAST TOWARDS BERMUDA...WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. A
GENERALLY LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN
THESE TWO FEATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS AT OR ABOVE 70 FOR MOST OF
THE AREA /WARMEST WEST AWAY FROM THE COOLER WATER/ AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50.

THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE A
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY WITH
VARYING INTENSITY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO
THE AREA...AND COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEPENDING
ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES WITH BRIEFLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO START WARMING AGAIN BY NEXT THURSDAY AS THE
HIGH PUSHES TO THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY UNDER LIGHT EAST FLOW.
SREFS SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF LOWER CIGS DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW SIDE...BUT GIVEN
EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE OCEAN THIS CAN/T BE RULED OUT.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS IN EASTERLY FLOW OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS IS
FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE ABATED A LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE AGAIN THIS EVENING IN E/SE FLOW. SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS
OF THE BAY INTO THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC INTO TONIGHT. CURRENT
FORECASTS ARE FOR WINDS UNDER SCA CRITERIA FRIDAY.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THE LOWER MARYLAND
CHESAPEAKE BAY SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC SEABOARD. SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN GENERALLY LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN MODEST SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT BY TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY IN GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND DEPARTING COLD
FRONT AND AHEAD OF APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THIS MORNING WAS ANOTHER ABNORMALLY COLD MORNING FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA EXPERIENCING LOW TEMPERATURES AT OR
BELOW FREEZING /AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL/. DESPITE THE
COLD...NO RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WERE OBSERVED. BELOW IS A LIST
OF WHAT THE RECORD LOWS ARE FOR TODAY COMPARED TO THE PRELIMINARY
LOW TEMPERATURES THAT WERE OBSERVED THIS MORNING.

SITE...RECORD........LOW TEMP...
DCA....26 F (1875)...39 F.......
BWI....26 F (1962)...30 F.......
IAD....27 F (1983)...28 F.......

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MDZ004>007-
     009>011.
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ036>040-042-
     050-051-501-502.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     540-541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ531-536-538-539-542.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...CEB
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...BPP/CEB/DFH
MARINE...BPP/CEB/DFH








000
FXUS61 KRNK 171743
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
143 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
U.S. THROUGH FRIDAY KEEPING A RELATIVELY COOL AIR MASS ACROSS THE
REGION. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY THROUGH THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES INTO SATURDAY...WHICH WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE
ENTIRE AREA AND A CHANCE OF RAIN TO NORTH CAROLINA AND FAR
SOUTHERN VIRGINIA. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 940 AM EDT THURSDAY...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVER
NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OUR REGION. INCREASED CLOUD
COVER SLIGHTLY AS HIGH CLOUDS SHOWN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE WERE
DRIFTING OVER AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460 THIS MORNING. CANADIAN
MODEL FORECAST SHOWS THESE CLOUDS WILL THIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...FORECAST TEMPS RUNNING JUST A TAD COOLER THAN 13Z
OBSERVATIONS...SO ADJUSTED READINGS UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES CLOSER
TO THE ADJUSTED NAM MOS GUIDANCE.

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES/EASTERN GULF
LATE IN THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY FAR SOUTH THROUGH THIS
TIME FRAME TO HAVE NO IMPACT ON THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME
FRAME. A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL ALSO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT OTHER THAN ALSO SOME HIGH
CLOUDS LATE IN THE PERIOD. MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND FROST POTENTIAL.  FOR
FRIDAY MORNING...ANY FREEZING TEMPERATURES LOOK VERY SPOTTY AS AIR
MASS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MODIFY. MORE IMPORTANTLY...HOWEVER...WILL
BE STRENGTHENING EASTERLY FLOW IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHEAST. THE EXTENT OF THIS WIND FLOW IS NOT
TOTALLY CLEAR AT THIS POINT...BUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY THAT ENOUGH
DECOUPLING WILL EXIST FOR DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD FROST AS
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S AFTER LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. THUS...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A FROST
ADVISORY FOR BOTETOURT...AMHERST...AND ROCKBRIDGE...THE MAIN AREA
OF CONCERN AT THIS POINT. DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO CONSIDER EXPANDING
THIS FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN
DECOUPLING ALLOWING FOR FROST FORMATION. GROUND IS QUITE
MOIST...SO IF WINDS REMAIN LIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR FROST TO DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT THURSDAY...

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...A COLD AIR DAMMING RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. PROGRESSIVELY INCREASING
MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL PROGRESS INTO THE AREA ON SOUTHEAST
WINDS...ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE RIDGE. ANTICIPATE AT LEAST A MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKY ON FRIDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER FRIDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER FEATURE ALSO WILL BE CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASED CLOUD
COVER TO AREA IN GENERAL...AND POTENTIALLY SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE REGION. 00Z/8PM GUIDANCE
AMONG THE GFS...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS BRING A CLOSED LOW
SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES WITH THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD BRUSHING OUR SOUTHERN TIER
COUNTIES BY FRIDAY EVENING...CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND
CONCLUDING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE LOW ITSELF IS PROGGED TO
CONTINUE A SLOW NORTHEAST TRACK AND EXIT THE U.S. OFF THE GA/SC
COAST AROUND SATURDAY EVENING.

WHILE THESE THREE SOLUTIONS ARE SIMILAR...THEY ARE A SHIFT NORTH
AS COMPARED TO THEIR EARLIER COUNTERPARTS THAT HAD DRY
SOLUTIONS...AND THE 00Z/8PM NAM SOLUTION HAS MAINTAINED A MORE
SOUTHERLY...AND THUS DRIER AND WARMER SOLUTION FOR OUR REGION. GIVEN
THIS...WILL OFFER NO MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN FROM
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NC EASTWARD ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER DURING
THE FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT TIME FRAME...AND GREATER CLOUD COVER...AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS A WHOLE.

WILL REFRAIN FROM CONTINUING THE SLIGHT CHANCE INTO SATURDAY AT THIS
POINT...AND ALLOW OUR FORECAST TO CONTINUE FORWARD NEARLY UNCHANGED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THIS SOLUTION IS ONE THAT
KEEPS THE REGION WITHIN A ZONE OF DRY...HIGH PRESSURE...WITH EVER
SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE THE CLOSED LOW
SPINS OFF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

UPPER RIDGING BUILDING BEHIND A CLOSE UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WILL PROVIDE A NICE BOOST IN TEMPS FOR MUCH OF THE LONG
TERM. DESPITE CLOUDS AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES...WARM SW FLOW SHOULD SHOVE +10C H85 AIR OUR WAY
INTO TUESDAY. H8H TEMPS ARE ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLED BY THIS BOUNDARY
WITH SHOWERS PROBABLY CONFINED TO TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY
MORNING. HEIGHTS BUILD QUICKLY BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE IN RESPONSE
TO A CLOSED LOW AND DIGGING NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH THROUGH THE
ROCKIES...WITH THE WARM PATTERN CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT THURSDAY...

VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. EASTERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN
AND BECOME CALM FOR SEVERAL HOURS TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES WILL THROW HIGH CLOUDS IN OUR
DIRECTION LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST. LATEST MODELS
SUGGEST THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TAKE A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK
THAN PAST SEVERAL RUNS...MEANING AN A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME MVF
AND/OR RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER. VFR FOR SUNDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO BRING MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR CIGS
AND -SHRA TO THE AREA DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL EARLY TO MID PART OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 1000 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

RECORD LOWS AT BLACKSBURG...BLUEFIELD AND LEWISBURG THIS MORNING.

BLACKSBURG TIED AT 24F...BLUEFIELD TIED AT 23F AND LEWISBURG
BROKE THEIR RECORD 23F.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ023-024-035.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...PH/RAB
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...KM
AVIATION...KK/KM/RAB
CLIMATE...JC/KM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 171742
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
142 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFF TO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINTAINING
A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A SLOW MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PERSIST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OVER THE
WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A STRONG HIGH OVER MAINE (1045 MB AT BANGOR
AT 14Z) RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLC. MOST OF THE AREA HAD A
CLEAR SKY. STRATOCUMULUS COVERED THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE
AND HIGH THIN CLOUDS WERE SLOWLY INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH.

EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS TOWARD THE COAST BUT MOST OF
THE REGION WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY UNDER THE DOMINANCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH 55 TO 60 WELL
INLAND WITH 50 TO 55 NEAR THE COAST. THE BEACHES OF THE LOWER
EASTERN SHORE MAY STAY BELOW 50.

FOR TONIGHT...TRENDS IN MODELS SUGGEST A BIT LESS IN THE WAY OF
CLOUD COVER. AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY SO EVEN WITH A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY EXPECT LITTLE OR NO FREEZING TEMPERATURES. LOWS
INLAND MAINLY 35-40 F...40-45 F NEAR THE COAST. WILL ASSESS THE
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST IN RURAL AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 95
WITH THE AFTN FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS AGREE WITH TROUGH PUSHING A BIT CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA
(ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW OVER GA/FL) FRI INTO EARLY SAT. IN MID
LEVELS THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVING
ALONG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US. THIS ENERGY IS NOT WELL HANDLED BY
ANY OF THE MODELS, SO PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. FOR NOW, HAVE
LEANED MORE TOWARD THE DRIER NAM/ECMWF (GFS IS AN OUTLIER IN
BRINGING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FRI
NIGHT/SAT). STILL...WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
OVER THE SOUTHERN/SE 1/3 OF THE AREA, WITH CHANCE POPS OVER PARTS
OF NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY
FOLLOWED MOS GUIDANCE, WHICH KEEPS MOST MINS IN THE 40S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
BY SAT AFTN ALL MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK FRONT CROSSING THE AREA
WITH HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CLEAR THE
SKIES ACROSS THE AREA AS IT PUSHES THE TROUGH FARTHER OFF THE
COAST. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON SATURDAY GETTING BACK TO THE MID 60S SE TO AROUND 70 F NW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL
EXTEND INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND OH/TN VALLEYS SAT NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A COASTAL LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS NOW EXPECTED
TO STAY SHUNTED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND THEN TRACK NE
WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH SUN. THE STRETCHED OUT SFC
HIGH AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER RIDGING WILL PASS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION SUN INTO EARLY MON. THE SFC HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF
THE COAST DURING THE DAY AS THE MID/UPPER RIDGING FLATTENS. A
RELATIVELY FLAT (WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN
INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE...MOVING OFFSHORE BY WED MORNING.
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW TRAVELING ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
ON MON/TUE. GFS PRECIP-GENERATION AND GENERAL MOVEMENT CONTINUES
TO BE AGGRESSIVE/FAST VERSUS THE ECMWF. HAVE THEREFORE TRIED TO
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH THE POP FORECAST...LEANING TWD SLIGHTLY
SLOWER TIMING TO THE ONSET OF PRECIP MON NIGHT AND LIMITING
OVERALL COVERAGE ON TUE TO NO HIGHER THAN 40 PERCENT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRAIGHT-FORWARD SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS NEAR
NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COASTS). HIGHS SAT/SUN RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 65 DEGREES FAR NE TO 70
DEGREES SW. AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH WED...THE TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY
IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM SECTOR DEVELOPS. WITH PRECIP
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AT SOME POINT MON NIGHT...INCREASING
CIRRUS DURING THE DAY MON SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S
WEST OF I-95 WITH WARMER TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S EAST OF I-95
(MID-UPPER 60S MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS TUE SHOULD BE IN THE
LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE CHES
BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES WITH HIGHS
ON WED IN THE MID 70S INLAND TO UPPER 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
LOW TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE ON MON/TUE/WED NIGHTS SHOULD ALSO BE
WARM WITH READINGS IN THE 50S (OR ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ARE COMBINING TO KEEP WINDS
FROM THE NORTHEAST. WINDS FROM 950 TO 850 MB ARE BECOMING MORE
EAST AND CAN SEE THE CLOUDS WORKING BACK INTO THE COAST LINE NOW.
THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW THESE CLOUDS RETURNING. USING THE
EXPERIMENTAL GOES MVFR PROBABILITY IMAGES CAN SEE THE PROBABILITY
OF CLOUDS BEING MVFR INCREASING OVER THE OCEAN. AT THIS TIME DO
NOT BELIEVE CIGS WILL DROP INTO THE IFR RANGE. HOWEVER THE SREF
PROBABILITIES DO SHOW SOME CHANCE ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOST EASTER
TERMINALS FOR THE PERIOD FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
NONE OF THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS ANYTHING BUT VFR
CONDITIONS. ALL MODELS SHOW SIMILAR TIMING ON THE CLOUDS ARRIVING
AND WILL BRING BROKEN MVFR CIGS TO ALL BUT RIC DURING THE EVENING
AND REACHING RIC AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT THE
MOISTURE ON FRIDAY WITH CLOUDS LIFTING TO VFR FROM THE WEST TO THE
EAST DURING THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...DUE TO CONTINUED RATHER STRONG HI PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...THE CHC FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN FRI NGT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE PORTIONS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHC
FOR SHOWERS FRI NGT. ALSO STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY FOR
CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AS A LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US BUT
BY SUNDAY SHOULD BE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS OVER THE RIVERS HAVE DROPPED TO 10 TO 15 KTS. OVER THE BAY
AND COAST WINDS CONTINUE 15 TO 20 KTS. SCA FLAGS REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH THIS AFTN FOR NRN CHES BAY ZNS...AND THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR THE SRN CHES BAY. HI PRES WILL SLIDE ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY THRU FRI...MAINTAINING NE WINDS OVR
THE WTRS. THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE SEAS TO REMAIN AT
OR ABOVE 5 FT FOR ALL CSTL WTRS THRU AT LEAST LATE FRI NGT. FRI
NGT THRU MON...LO PRES WILL TRACK ACRS FLORIDA...THEN ENE WELL OFF
THE MID ATLC CST. WHILE...HI PRES WILL BLD FM THE NRN GRT LAKES
EWRD ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND OFF THE CST. THIS SCENARIO WILL MAINTAIN
GENERALLY N OR NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT ACRS THE WTRS FRI NGT THRU
MON.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ630-
     631-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/LSA
SHORT TERM...LKB/JAB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...TMG/JAB
MARINE...TMG/JAB







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 171513
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1113 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFF TO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINTAINING
A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A SLOW MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PERSIST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OVER THE
WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A STRONG HIGH OVER MAINE (1045 MB AT BANGOR
AT 14Z) RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLC. MOST OF THE AREA HAD A
CLEAR SKY. STRATOCUMULUS COVERED THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE
AND HIGH THIN CLOUDS WERE SLOWLY INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH.

EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS TOWARD THE COAST BUT MOST OF
THE REGION WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY UNDER THE DOMINANCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH 55 TO 60 WELL
INLAND WITH 50 TO 55 NEAR THE COAST. THE BEACHES OF THE LOWER
EASTERN SHORE MAY STAY BELOW 50.

FOR TONIGHT...TRENDS IN MODELS SUGGEST A BIT LESS IN THE WAY OF
CLOUD COVER. AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY SO EVEN WITH A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY EXPECT LITTLE OR NO FREEZING TEMPERATURES. LOWS
INLAND MAINLY 35-40 F...40-45 F NEAR THE COAST. WILL ASSESS THE
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST IN RURAL AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 95
WITH THE AFTN FORCAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS AGREE WITH TROUGH PUSHING A BIT CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA
(ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW OVER GA/FL) FRI INTO EARLY SAT. IN MID
LEVELS THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVING
ALONG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US. THIS ENERGY IS NOT WELL HANDLED BY
ANY OF THE MODELS, SO PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. FOR NOW, HAVE
LEANED MORE TOWARD THE DRIER NAM/ECMWF (GFS IS AN OUTLIER IN
BRINGING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FRI
NIGHT/SAT). STILL...WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
OVER THE SOUTHERN/SE 1/3 OF THE AREA, WITH CHANCE POPS OVER PARTS
OF NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY
FOLLOWED MOS GUIDANCE, WHICH KEEPS MOST MINS IN THE 40S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
BY SAT AFTN ALL MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK FRONT CROSSING THE AREA
WITH HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CLEAR THE
SKIES ACROSS THE AREA AS IT PUSHES THE TROUGH FARTHER OFF THE
COAST. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON SATURDAY GETTING BACK TO THE MID 60S SE TO AROUND 70 F NW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL
EXTEND INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND OH/TN VALLEYS SAT NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A COASTAL LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS NOW EXPECTED
TO STAY SHUNTED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND THEN TRACK NE
WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH SUN. THE STRETCHED OUT SFC
HIGH AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER RIDGING WILL PASS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION SUN INTO EARLY MON. THE SFC HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF
THE COAST DURING THE DAY AS THE MID/UPPER RIDGING FLATTENS. A
RELATIVELY FLAT (WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN
INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE...MOVING OFFSHORE BY WED MORNING.
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW TRAVELING ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
ON MON/TUE. GFS PRECIP-GENERATION AND GENERAL MOVEMENT CONTINUES
TO BE AGGRESSIVE/FAST VERSUS THE ECMWF. HAVE THEREFORE TRIED TO
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH THE POP FORECAST...LEANING TWD SLIGHTLY
SLOWER TIMING TO THE ONSET OF PRECIP MON NIGHT AND LIMITING
OVERALL COVERAGE ON TUE TO NO HIGHER THAN 40 PERCENT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRAIGHT-FORWARD SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS NEAR
NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COASTS). HIGHS SAT/SUN RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 65 DEGREES FAR NE TO 70
DEGREES SW. AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH WED...THE TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY
IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM SECTOR DEVELOPS. WITH PRECIP
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AT SOME POINT MON NIGHT...INCREASING
CIRRUS DURING THE DAY MON SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S
WEST OF I-95 WITH WARMER TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S EAST OF I-95
(MID-UPPER 60S MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS TUE SHOULD BE IN THE
LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE CHES
BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES WITH HIGHS
ON WED IN THE MID 70S INLAND TO UPPER 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
LOW TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE ON MON/TUE/WED NIGHTS SHOULD ALSO BE
WARM WITH READINGS IN THE 50S (OR ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED THRU EARLY THIS MORNING. SFC RIDGING
FM THE NE WILL THEN HELP TO BRING IN STRATOCU CLOUDS...WHICH COULD
GO TO MVFR CIGS...OVER SE VA/NE NC TAF SITES (ORF/ECG) DURING
TODAY...DUE TO MOIST ONSHORE FLOW. NE WINDS MAY BE GUSTY ONCE
AGAIN AT THESE SITES ALSO FM LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENG.

OUTLOOK...DUE TO CONTINUED RATHER STRONG HI PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...THE CHC FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
INCREASE THRU FRI NGT...ESPLY ACRS SE PORTIONS. THERE WILL ALSO
BE A CHC FOR SHOWERS LATE FRI AND FRI NGT.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FLAGS REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
RIVERS AND THROUGH THIS AFTN FOR NRN CHES BAY ZNS...AND THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR THE SRN CHES BAY. HI PRES WILL SLIDE ACRS NEW
ENGLAND AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY THRU
FRI...MAINTAINING NE WINDS OVR THE WTRS. THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CAUSE SEAS TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT FOR ALL CSTL WTRS
THRU AT LEAST LATE FRI NGT. FRI NGT THRU MON...LO PRES WILL TRACK
ACRS FLORIDA...THEN ENE WELL OFF THE MID ATLC CST. WHILE...HI PRES
WILL BLD FM THE NRN GRT LAKES EWRD ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND OFF THE
CST. THIS SCENARIO WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY N OR NE WINDS 10 TO 15
KT ACRS THE WTRS FRI NGT THRU MON.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ630-
     631-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/LSA
SHORT TERM...LKB/JAB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG/JAB







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 171450
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1050 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFF TO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINTAINING
A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A SLOW MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PERSIST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OVER THE
WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A STRONG HIGH OVER MAINE (1045 MB AT BANGOR
AT 14Z) RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLC. MOST OF THE AREA HAD A
CLEAR SKY. STRATOCUMULUS COVERED THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE
AND HIGH THIN CLOUDS WERE SLOWLY INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH.

EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS TOWARD THE COAST BUT MOST OF
THE REGION WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY UNDER THE DOMINANCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH 55 TO 60 WELL
INLAND WITH 50 TO 55 NEAR THE COAST. THE BEACHES OF THE LOWER
EASTERN SHORE MAY STAY BELOW 50.

FOR TONIGHT...TRENDS IN MODELS SUGGEST A BIT LESS IN THE WAY OF
CLOUD COVER. AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY SO EVEN WITH A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY EXPECT LITTLE OR NO FREEZING TEMPERATURES. LOWS
INLAND MAINLY 35-40 F...40-45 F NEAR THE COAST. WILL ASSESS THE
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST IN RURAL AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 95
WITH THE AFTN FORCAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS AGREE WITH TROUGH PUSHING A BIT CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA
(ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW OVER GA/FL) FRI INTO EARLY SAT. IN MID
LEVELS THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVING
ALONG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US. THIS ENERGY IS NOT WELL HANDLED BY
ANY OF THE MODELS, SO PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. FOR NOW, HAVE
LEANED MORE TOWARD THE DRIER NAM/ECMWF (GFS IS AN OUTLIER IN
BRINGING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FRI
NIGHT/SAT). STILL...WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
OVER THE SOUTHERN/SE 1/3 OF THE AREA, WITH CHANCE POPS OVER PARTS
OF NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY
FOLLOWED MOS GUIDANCE, WHICH KEEPS MOST MINS IN THE 40S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
BY SAT AFTN ALL MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK FRONT CROSSING THE AREA
WITH HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CLEAR THE
SKIES ACROSS THE AREA AS IT PUSHES THE TROUGH FARTHER OFF THE
COAST. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON SATURDAY GETTING BACK TO THE MID 60S SE TO AROUND 70 F NW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL
EXTEND INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND OH/TN VALLEYS SAT NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A COASTAL LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS NOW EXPECTED
TO STAY SHUNTED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND THEN TRACK NE
WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH SUN. THE STRETCHED OUT SFC
HIGH AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER RIDGING WILL PASS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION SUN INTO EARLY MON. THE SFC HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF
THE COAST DURING THE DAY AS THE MID/UPPER RIDGING FLATTENS. A
RELATIVELY FLAT (WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN
INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE...MOVING OFFSHORE BY WED MORNING.
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW TRAVELING ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
ON MON/TUE. GFS PRECIP-GENERATION AND GENERAL MOVEMENT CONTINUES
TO BE AGGRESSIVE/FAST VERSUS THE ECMWF. HAVE THEREFORE TRIED TO
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH THE POP FORECAST...LEANING TWD SLIGHTLY
SLOWER TIMING TO THE ONSET OF PRECIP MON NIGHT AND LIMITING
OVERALL COVERAGE ON TUE TO NO HIGHER THAN 40 PERCENT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRAIGHT-FORWARD SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS NEAR
NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COASTS). HIGHS SAT/SUN RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 65 DEGREES FAR NE TO 70
DEGREES SW. AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH WED...THE TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY
IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM SECTOR DEVELOPS. WITH PRECIP
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AT SOME POINT MON NIGHT...INCREASING
CIRRUS DURING THE DAY MON SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S
WEST OF I-95 WITH WARMER TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S EAST OF I-95
(MID-UPPER 60S MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS TUE SHOULD BE IN THE
LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE CHES
BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES WITH HIGHS
ON WED IN THE MID 70S INLAND TO UPPER 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
LOW TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE ON MON/TUE/WED NIGHTS SHOULD ALSO BE
WARM WITH READINGS IN THE 50S (OR ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED THRU EARLY THIS MORNING. SFC RIDGING
FM THE NE WILL THEN HELP TO BRING IN STRATOCU CLOUDS...WHICH COULD
GO TO MVFR CIGS...OVER SE VA/NE NC TAF SITES (ORF/ECG) DURING
TODAY...DUE TO MOIST ONSHORE FLOW. NE WINDS MAY BE GUSTY ONCE
AGAIN AT THESE SITES ALSO FM LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENG.

OUTLOOK...DUE TO CONTINUED RATHER STRONG HI PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...THE CHC FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
INCREASE THRU FRI NGT...ESPLY ACRS SE PORTIONS. THERE WILL ALSO
BE A CHC FOR SHOWERS LATE FRI AND FRI NGT.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FLAGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTN FOR THE ERN VA
RIVERS AND NRN CHES BAY ZNS...AND THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE SRN
CHES BAY. HI PRES WILL SLIDE ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY THRU FRI...MAINTAINING NE WINDS OVR THE
WTRS. THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE SEAS TO REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE 5 FT FOR ALL CSTL WTRS THRU AT LEAST LATE FRI NGT. FRI NGT
THRU MON...LO PRES WILL TRACK ACRS FLORIDA...THEN ENE WELL OFF THE
MID ATLC CST. WHILE...HI PRES WILL BLD FM THE NRN GRT LAKES EWRD
ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND OFF THE CST. THIS SCENARIO WILL MAINTAIN
GENERALLY N OR NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT ACRS THE WTRS FRI NGT THRU
MON.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ630-
     631-635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/LSA
SHORT TERM...LKB/JAB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG







000
FXUS61 KLWX 171428
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1028 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL STRETCH SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA SATURDAY. A SECOND
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MAINE STRETCHES DOWN THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES. IT WAS ANOTHER COLD MORNING...BUT THE COLD AIR
MASS WILL MODIFY TODAY UNDER THE MID-APRIL SUN. WE ARE BEGINNING
THE DAY WITH SUNSHINE THROUGH HIGH CIRRUS. AM WATCHING SOME
STRATOCU ADVECT ONTO THE EASTERN SHORE...AND THESE MAY EXTEND WEST
OF THE BAY THIS AFTERNOON...AFFECTING AT LEAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MARYLAND FOR A TRANSITION TO PARTLY SUNNY...MAYBE EVEN
MOSTLY CLOUDY. MORE SUNSHINE WILL BE SEEN FURTHER WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE QUESTION FOR TONIGHT IS WILL LIGHT FLOW PREVENT DECOUPLING AND
WILL LOW CLOUDS SPREAD ACROSS AT LEAST EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA.
NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE CLOUDIER THAN GFS ONES...AND THUS MET
GUIDANCE MIN TEMPERATURES ARE HIGHER THAN MAV ONES. NORTH CENTRAL
MARYLAND SEEMS TO BE THE COLDEST AREAS WITH AN ACTIVE GROWING SEASON
TONIGHT. WITH MINS FORECAST IN THE LOW 30S...WENT AHEAD WITH A
FREEZE WATCH FOR FREDERICK MD TO HARFORD. DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO
DETERMINE IF A FROST/FREEZE OR NEITHER IS NECESSARY.

FRIDAY...MODIFICATION/MODERATION CONTINUES WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPR
50S EAST TO MID 60S WEST. CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY AN
IMPORTANT ROLE WITH THE SFC RIDGE AXIS NEARLY STATIONARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MID ATLC HAS XPRNCD WHAT SEEMED LK A NEVERENDING SERIES OF WVS.
BUT FOR A CHG THE WX SHOULD BE RLVTLY BENIGN IN THE XTND - NO
WINTRY CONCERNS FOR ONE THING. OVERALL UPR LVL FLOW COULD BE
CHARACTERIZED AS A FAIRLY HIGH ZNL NEAR THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER.
THIS WL AID IN KEEPING TEMPS ON THE MODERATE SIDE - NEITHER TOO
HOT OR COLD...MORE LK WHAT SHOULD BE OCCURRING IN MID APR. ONE
SHORT WV IS XPCTD TO PUSH THRU THE NERN U.S. BUT THIS IS LOOKING
LESS AND LESS LK A PCPN PRODUCER.

THE NEXT PCPN CHC LOOKS TO BE ON TUE W/ ANOTHER FROPA. NO COLD
TEMPS TO WORRY ABT - HIGHS IN THE L70S...LOWS IN THE U40S/L50S.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR AT LEAST INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TERMINALS...WITH
STRATOCU AROUND 3-4K FT POSSIBLY MAKING THEIR WAY TO BWI/DCA THIS
AFTERNOON. RISK FOR MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING BEGINNING THIS
EVENING...CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

VFR CONDS ARE XPCTD FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE XTND PD.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE MADE MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO SCA FOR TODAY. EASTERLY FLOW 10
TO 15 KT WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH GUSTS LIKELY NEAR 20 KT FOR THE
LOWER BAY/POTOMAC WHERE SCA IS IN EFFECT. SCA MAY EXPAND FURTHER
NORTH TONIGHT...AND KEPT HEADLINES THE SAME.

ONSHORE FLOW LOOKS TO BE SUB SCA FOR FRIDAY. WINDS MAY GUST TO 20
KT ON SAT. NO PROBS FORESEEN SUNDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     MDZ004>007.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ531-536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     540-541-543.

&&

$$
BPP/BAJ/WOODY!









000
FXUS61 KRNK 171351
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
951 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
U.S. THROUGH FRIDAY KEEPING A RELATIVELY COOL AIR MASS ACROSS THE
REGION. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY THROUGH THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES INTO SATURDAY...WHICH WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE
ENTIRE AREA AND A CHANCE OF RAIN TO NORTH CAROLINA AND FAR
SOUTHERN VIRGINIA. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 940 AM EDT THURSDAY...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVER
NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OUR REGION. INCREASED CLOUD
COVER SLIGHTLY AS HIGH CLOUDS SHOWN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE WERE
DRIFTING OVER AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460 THIS MORNING. CANADIAN
MODEL FORECAST SHOWS THESE CLOUDS WILL THIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...FORECAST TEMPS RUNNING JUST A TAD COOLER THAN 13Z
OBSERVATIONS...SO ADJUSTED READINGS UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES CLOSER
TO THE ADJUSTED NAM MOS GUIDANCE.

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES/EASTERN GULF
LATE IN THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY FAR SOUTH THROUGH THIS
TIME FRAME TO HAVE NO IMPACT ON THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME
FRAME. A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL ALSO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT OTHER THAN ALSO SOME HIGH
CLOUDS LATE IN THE PERIOD. MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND FROST POTENTIAL.  FOR
FRIDAY MORNING...ANY FREEZING TEMPERATURES LOOK VERY SPOTTY AS AIR
MASS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MODIFY. MORE IMPORTANTLY...HOWEVER...WILL
BE STRENGTHENING EASTERLY FLOW IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHEAST. THE EXTENT OF THIS WIND FLOW IS NOT
TOTALLY CLEAR AT THIS POINT...BUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY THAT ENOUGH
DECOUPLING WILL EXIST FOR DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD FROST AS
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S AFTER LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. THUS...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A FROST
ADVISORY FOR BOTETOURT...AMHERST...AND ROCKBRIDGE...THE MAIN AREA
OF CONCERN AT THIS POINT. DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO CONSIDER EXPANDING
THIS FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN
DECOUPLING ALLOWING FOR FROST FORMATION. GROUND IS QUITE
MOIST...SO IF WINDS REMAIN LIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR FROST TO DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT THURSDAY...

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...A COLD AIR DAMMING RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. PROGRESSIVELY INCREASING
MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL PROGRESS INTO THE AREA ON SOUTHEAST
WINDS...ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE RIDGE. ANTICIPATE AT LEAST A MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKY ON FRIDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER FRIDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER FEATURE ALSO WILL BE CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASED CLOUD
COVER TO AREA IN GENERAL...AND POTENTIALLY SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE REGION. 00Z/8PM GUIDANCE
AMONG THE GFS...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS BRING A CLOSED LOW
SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES WITH THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD BRUSHING OUR SOUTHERN TIER
COUNTIES BY FRIDAY EVENING...CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND
CONCLUDING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE LOW ITSELF IS PROGGED TO
CONTINUE A SLOW NORTHEAST TRACK AND EXIT THE U.S. OFF THE GA/SC
COAST AROUND SATURDAY EVENING.

WHILE THESE THREE SOLUTIONS ARE SIMILAR...THEY ARE A SHIFT NORTH
AS COMPARED TO THEIR EARLIER COUNTERPARTS THAT HAD DRY
SOLUTIONS...AND THE 00Z/8PM NAM SOLUTION HAS MAINTAINED A MORE
SOUTHERLY...AND THUS DRIER AND WARMER SOLUTION FOR OUR REGION. GIVEN
THIS...WILL OFFER NO MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN FROM
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NC EASTWARD ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER DURING
THE FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT TIME FRAME...AND GREATER CLOUD COVER...AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS A WHOLE.

WILL REFRAIN FROM CONTINUING THE SLIGHT CHANCE INTO SATURDAY AT THIS
POINT...AND ALLOW OUR FORECAST TO CONTINUE FORWARD NEARLY UNCHANGED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THIS SOLUTION IS ONE THAT
KEEPS THE REGION WITHIN A ZONE OF DRY...HIGH PRESSURE...WITH EVER
SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE THE CLOSED LOW
SPINS OFF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

UPPER RIDGING BUILDING BEHIND A CLOSE UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WILL PROVIDE A NICE BOOST IN TEMPS FOR MUCH OF THE LONG
TERM. DESPITE CLOUDS AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES...WARM SW FLOW SHOULD SHOVE +10C H85 AIR OUR WAY
INTO TUESDAY. H8H TEMPS ARE ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLED BY THIS BOUNDARY
WITH SHOWERS PROBABLY CONFINED TO TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY
MORNING. HEIGHTS BUILD QUICKLY BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE IN RESPONSE
TO A CLOSED LOW AND DIGGING NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH THROUGH THE
ROCKIES...WITH THE WARM PATTERN CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT THURSDAY...

VFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A LARGE
COLD...DRY HIGH PRESSURE AREA ANCHORS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE DEEPENING ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF SE GA/SC/NORTHERN FL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH
WILL PROLONG THE E-NE SFC FLOW INTO THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ESE-SE THU NIGHT INTO FRI AND INCREASED
MARITIME FLOW...SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE AREAS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT
THIS SHOULD REMAIN BEYOND THIS VALID TAF PERIOD. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
WILL SKIRT THE AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY...BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE CONSIDERABLY OVERNIGHT AND AFT 06Z COULD BECOME BKN-OVC
IN MOST AREAS AT 250. WINDS ENE- ESE THROUGH THE PERIOD AT
6-9KTS...WITH LOW END GUSTS POSSIBLE LYH/ROA DURING THE DAYTIME.
BLF CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT TYPICALLY GUSTY SE WINDS FOR SYNOPTIC
PATTERN...AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF VALID
PERIOD WITH PERIODIC GUSTS TO 20KTS POSSIBLE.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY WHILE ANOTHER
SYSTEM STAYS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASE CLOUDS FRIDAY-SATURDAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST BUT MOST PLACES
SHOULD STAY VFR...POTENTIALLY MVFR EARLY FRI ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
VFR FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
AND MID ATLANTIC. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO BRING MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR
CIGS AND -SHRA TO THE AREA DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL EARLY TO MID PART
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 1000 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

RECORD LOWS AT BLACKSBURG...BLUEFIELD AND LEWISBURG THIS MORNING

BLACKSBURG TIED THEIRS AT 24...BLUEFIELD TIED THEIRS AT 23 AND
LEWISBURG BROKE THEIRS AT 23.


APRIL 17TH RECORD LOWS

ROANOKE 27F 1980......FORECASTED LOW 31F.
LYNCHBURG 27F 1904....FORECASTED LOW 30F.
DANVILLE 28F 1962.....FORECASTED LOW 30F.
BLUEFIELD 25F 2001....FORECASTED LOW 32F.
BLACKSBURG 20F 1974...FORECASTED LOW 26F.
LEWISBURG 25F 2001....FORECASTED LOW 20F.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ023-024-035.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...PH/RAB
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...KM
AVIATION...KK/RAB
CLIMATE...JC/KM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 171340
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
940 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFF TO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINTAINING
A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A SLOW MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PERSIST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OVER THE
WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A STRONG/1044 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLC. CLEAR SKIES
PREVAIL...BUT WITH LOW STRATUS NOT FAR OFF THE COAST AND SLOWLY
PUSHING TO THE WEST. THE STRATUS OFF THE COAST HAS NOT MADE MUCH
PROGRESS TO THE EAST EXCEPT OVER THE MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE
UPDATED THE GRIDS TO INDICATE A SLOWER INCREASE IN THE CLOUDS WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING THIS
AFTERNOON FROM INTERSTATE 95 AND WEST. HIGH THIN CLOUDS ADVECTING
FROM THE SOUTH.

EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY 50-55 F NEAR THE COAST (LOCALLY UPPER 40S IN
A FEW SPOTS ON THE ERN SHORE) TO 55-60 F WELL INLAND.

FOR TONIGHT...TRENDS IN MODELS SUGGEST A BIT LESS IN THE WAY OF
CLOUD COVER SO HAVE DROPPED MINS A FEW DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY SO EVEN WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WELL INLAND DO NOT EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP TO 32
F...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE CLOSE IN SOME AREAS WEST OF I-95 SO WILL
MENTION THIS IN THE HWO. OTHERWISE...LOWS MAINLY 35-40 F...EXCEPT
40-45 F NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS AGREE WITH TROUGH PUSHING A BIT CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA
(ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW OVER GA/FL) FRI INTO EARLY SAT. IN MID
LEVELS THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVING
ALONG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US. THIS ENERGY IS NOT WELL HANDLED BY
ANY OF THE MODELS, SO PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. FOR NOW, HAVE
LEANED MORE TOWARD THE DRIER NAM/ECMWF (GFS IS AN OUTLIER IN
BRINGING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FRI
NIGHT/SAT). STILL...WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
OVER THE SOUTHERN/SE 1/3 OF THE AREA, WITH CHANCE POPS OVER PARTS
OF NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY
FOLLOWED MOS GUIDANCE, WHICH KEEPS MOST MINS IN THE 40S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
BY SAT AFTN ALL MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK FRONT CROSSING THE AREA
WITH HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CLEAR THE
SKIES ACROSS THE AREA AS IT PUSHES THE TROUGH FARTHER OFF THE
COAST. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON SATURDAY GETTING BACK TO THE MID 60S SE TO AROUND 70 F NW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL
EXTEND INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND OH/TN VALLEYS SAT NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A COASTAL LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS NOW EXPECTED
TO STAY SHUNTED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND THEN TRACK NE
WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH SUN. THE STRETCHED OUT SFC
HIGH AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER RIDGING WILL PASS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION SUN INTO EARLY MON. THE SFC HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF
THE COAST DURING THE DAY AS THE MID/UPPER RIDGING FLATTENS. A
RELATIVELY FLAT (WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN
INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE...MOVING OFFSHORE BY WED MORNING.
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW TRAVELING ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
ON MON/TUE. GFS PRECIP-GENERATION AND GENERAL MOVEMENT CONTINUES
TO BE AGGRESSIVE/FAST VERSUS THE ECMWF. HAVE THEREFORE TRIED TO
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH THE POP FORECAST...LEANING TWD SLIGHTLY
SLOWER TIMING TO THE ONSET OF PRECIP MON NIGHT AND LIMITING
OVERALL COVERAGE ON TUE TO NO HIGHER THAN 40 PERCENT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRAIGHT-FORWARD SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS NEAR
NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COASTS). HIGHS SAT/SUN RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 65 DEGREES FAR NE TO 70
DEGREES SW. AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH WED...THE TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY
IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM SECTOR DEVELOPS. WITH PRECIP
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AT SOME POINT MON NIGHT...INCREASING
CIRRUS DURING THE DAY MON SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S
WEST OF I-95 WITH WARMER TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S EAST OF I-95
(MID-UPPER 60S MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS TUE SHOULD BE IN THE
LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE CHES
BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES WITH HIGHS
ON WED IN THE MID 70S INLAND TO UPPER 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
LOW TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE ON MON/TUE/WED NIGHTS SHOULD ALSO BE
WARM WITH READINGS IN THE 50S (OR ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED THRU EARLY THIS MORNING. SFC RIDGING
FM THE NE WILL THEN HELP TO BRING IN STRATOCU CLOUDS...WHICH COULD
GO TO MVFR CIGS...OVER SE VA/NE NC TAF SITES (ORF/ECG) DURING
TODAY...DUE TO MOIST ONSHORE FLOW. NE WINDS MAY BE GUSTY ONCE
AGAIN AT THESE SITES ALSO FM LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENG.

OUTLOOK...DUE TO CONTINUED RATHER STRONG HI PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...THE CHC FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
INCREASE THRU FRI NGT...ESPLY ACRS SE PORTIONS. THERE WILL ALSO
BE A CHC FOR SHOWERS LATE FRI AND FRI NGT.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FLAGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTN FOR THE ERN VA
RIVERS AND NRN CHES BAY ZNS...AND THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE SRN
CHES BAY. HI PRES WILL SLIDE ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY THRU FRI...MAINTAINING NE WINDS OVR THE
WTRS. THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE SEAS TO REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE 5 FT FOR ALL CSTL WTRS THRU AT LEAST LATE FRI NGT. FRI NGT
THRU MON...LO PRES WILL TRACK ACRS FLORIDA...THEN ENE WELL OFF THE
MID ATLC CST. WHILE...HI PRES WILL BLD FM THE NRN GRT LAKES EWRD
ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND OFF THE CST. THIS SCENARIO WILL MAINTAIN
GENERALLY N OR NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT ACRS THE WTRS FRI NGT THRU
MON.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ630-
     631-635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/LSA
SHORT TERM...LKB/JAB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG







000
FXUS61 KRNK 171133
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
733 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
U.S. THROUGH FRIDAY KEEPING A RELATIVELY COOL AIR MASS ACROSS THE
REGION. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY THROUGH THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES INTO SATURDAY...WHICH WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE
ENTIRE AREA AND A CHANCE OF RAIN TO NORTH CAROLINA AND FAR
SOUTHERN VIRGINIA. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT THURSDAY...

BENIGN FORECAST THROUGH THE NEAR TERM AS LARGE AREA OF COLD...DRY
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND DOMINATES THE REGION. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES/EASTERN GULF LATE
IN THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY FAR SOUTH THROUGH THIS TIME
FRAME TO HAVE NO IMPACT ON THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. A
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST
WILL ALSO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT OTHER THAN ALSO SOME HIGH CLOUDS
LATE IN THE PERIOD. MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND FROST POTENTIAL. WILL LET
CURRENT FREEZE WARNING FOR THE PIEDMONT RUNS ITS COURSE THROUGH 9
AM. FOR FRIDAY MORNING...ANY FREEZING TEMPERATURES LOOK VERY
SPOTTY AS AIR MASS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MODIFY. MORE
IMPORTANTLY...HOWEVER...WILL BE STRENGTHENING EASTERLY FLOW IN
RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHEAST. THE EXTENT
OF THIS WIND FLOW IS NOT TOTALLY CLEAR AT THIS POINT...BUT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE THAT WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH
VALLEY THAT ENOUGH DECOUPLING WILL EXIST FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
WIDESPREAD FROST AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S
AFTER LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. THUS...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED
A FROST ADVISORY FOR BOTETOURT...AMHERST...AND ROCKBRIDGE...THE
MAIN AREA OF CONCERN AT THIS POINT. DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO CONSIDER
EXPANDING THIS FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF
CONFIDENCE IN DECOUPLING ALLOWING FOR FROST FORMATION. GROUND IS
QUITE MOIST...SO IF WINDS REMAIN LIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
COLD ENOUGH FOR FROST TO DEVELOP.

FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE ONCE AGAIN FAVORED THE COLDER ECMWF MOS
GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS BEEN HANDLING THE LAST FEW DAYS QUITE WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT THURSDAY...

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...A COLD AIR DAMMING RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. PROGRESSIVELY INCREASING
MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL PROGRESS INTO THE AREA ON SOUTHEAST
WINDS...ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE RIDGE. ANTICIPATE AT LEAST A MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKY ON FRIDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER FRIDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER FEATURE ALSO WILL BE CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASED CLOUD
COVER TO AREA IN GENERAL...AND POTENTIALLY SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE REGION. 00Z/8PM GUIDANCE
AMONG THE GFS...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS BRING A CLOSED LOW
SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES WITH THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD BRUSHING OUR SOUTHERN TIER
COUNTIES BY FRIDAY EVENING...CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND
CONCLUDING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE LOW ITSELF IS PROGGED TO
CONTINUE A SLOW NORTHEAST TRACK AND EXIT THE U.S. OFF THE GA/SC
COAST AROUND SATURDAY EVENING.

WHILE THESE THREE SOLUTIONS ARE SIMILAR...THEY ARE A SHIFT NORTH
AS COMPARED TO THEIR EARLIER COUNTERPARTS THAT HAD DRY
SOLUTIONS...AND THE 00Z/8PM NAM SOLUTION HAS MAINTAINED A MORE
SOUTHERLY...AND THUS DRIER AND WARMER SOLUTION FOR OUR REGION. GIVEN
THIS...WILL OFFER NO MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN FROM
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NC EASTWARD ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER DURING
THE FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT TIME FRAME...AND GREATER CLOUD COVER...AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS A WHOLE.

WILL REFRAIN FROM CONTINUING THE SLIGHT CHANCE INTO SATURDAY AT THIS
POINT...AND ALLOW OUR FORECAST TO CONTINUE FORWARD NEARLY UNCHANGED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THIS SOLUTION IS ONE THAT
KEEPS THE REGION WITHIN A ZONE OF DRY...HIGH PRESSURE...WITH EVER
SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE THE CLOSED LOW
SPINS OFF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

UPPER RIDGING BUILDING BEHIND A CLOSE UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WILL PROVIDE A NICE BOOST IN TEMPS FOR MUCH OF THE LONG
TERM. DESPITE CLOUDS AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES...WARM SW FLOW SHOULD SHOVE +10C H85 AIR OUR WAY
INTO TUESDAY. H8H TEMPS ARE ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLED BY THIS BOUNDARY
WITH SHOWERS PROBABLY CONFINED TO TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY
MORNING. HEIGHTS BUILD QUICKLY BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE IN RESPONSE
TO A CLOSED LOW AND DIGGING NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH THROUGH THE
ROCKIES...WITH THE WARM PATTERN CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT THURSDAY...

VFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A LARGE
COLD...DRY HIGH PRESSURE AREA ANCHORS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE DEEPENING ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF SE GA/SC/NORTHERN FL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH
WILL PROLONG THE E-NE SFC FLOW INTO THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ESE-SE THU NIGHT INTO FRI AND INCREASED
MARITIME FLOW...SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE AREAS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT
THIS SHOULD REMAIN BEYOND THIS VALID TAF PERIOD. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
WILL SKIRT THE AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY...BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE CONSIDERABLY OVERNIGHT AND AFT 06Z COULD BECOME BKN-OVC
IN MOST AREAS AT 250. WINDS ENE- ESE THROUGH THE PERIOD AT
6-9KTS...WITH LOW END GUSTS POSSIBLE LYH/ROA DURING THE DAYTIME.
BLF CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT TYPICALLY GUSTY SE WINDS FOR SYNOPTIC
PATTERN...AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF VALID
PERIOD WITH PERIODIC GUSTS TO 20KTS POSSIBLE.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY WHILE ANOTHER
SYSTEM STAYS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASE CLOUDS FRIDAY-SATURDAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST BUT MOST PLACES
SHOULD STAY VFR...POTENTIALLY MVFR EARLY FRI ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
VFR FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
AND MID ATLANTIC. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO BRING MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR
CIGS AND -SHRA TO THE AREA DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL EARLY TO MID PART
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 1000 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

RECORD LOWS AT BLACKSBURG...BLUEFIELD AND LEWISBURG THIS MORNING

BLACKSBURG TIED THEIRS AT 24...BLUEFIELD TIED THEIRS AT 23 AND
LEWISBURG BROKE THEIRS AT 23.


APRIL 17TH RECORD LOWS

ROANOKE 27F 1980......FORECASTED LOW 31F.
LYNCHBURG 27F 1904....FORECASTED LOW 30F.
DANVILLE 28F 1962.....FORECASTED LOW 30F.
BLUEFIELD 25F 2001....FORECASTED LOW 32F.
BLACKSBURG 20F 1974...FORECASTED LOW 26F.
LEWISBURG 25F 2001....FORECASTED LOW 20F.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ022>024-
     032>035-043>047-058-059.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ023-024-035.
NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ003>006-019-
     020.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...RAB
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...KM
AVIATION...KK/RAB
CLIMATE...JC/KM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 170845
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
445 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFF TO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINTAINING
A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A SLOW MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PERSIST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OVER THE
WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NPW/FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 13Z WITH NO CHANGES
PLANNED. LATEST TEMPERATURES ARE GENLY IN THE 30 TO 35 F RANGE
WITHIN THE WARNED AREA...WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO BE STEADY OR
DROP ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO THROUGH SUNRISE. TEMPS IN THE 40S ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH ONSHORE FLOW. SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A
STRONG/1040 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY RIDGING
SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLC. CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL...BUT WITH LOW
STRATUS NOT FAR OFF THE COAST AND SLOWLY PUSHING TO THE WEST.

FOR TODAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER OFFSHORE SHOULD BE ABLE
TO MIGRATE INTO AT LEAST THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTN. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH
THE GFS GENLY BEING THE CLOUDIEST (PROBABLY TOO CLOUDY FOR AREAS
WELL INLAND BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS). OVERALL...WILL EXPECT SKIES
TO REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WELL INLAND...WHILE BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER THE ERN SHORE AS WELL AS FAR SE VA/NE NC. TOO
SHALLOW OF A MOISTURE LAYER TO INCLUDE ANY PRECIP CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST. THE NE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVG AGAIN TODAY
(ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS CHILLY AS YESTERDAY). EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY
50-55 F NEAR THE COAST (LOCALLY UPPER 40S IN A FEW SPOTS ON THE
ERN SHORE) TO 55-60 F WELL INLAND.

FOR TONIGHT...TRENDS IN MODELS SUGGEST A BIT LESS IN THE WAY OF
CLOUD COVER SO HAVE DROPPED MINS A FEW DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY SO EVEN WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WELL INLAND DO NOT EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP TO 32
F...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE CLOSE IN SOME AREAS WEST OF I-95 SO WILL
MENTION THIS IN THE HWO. OTHERWISE...LOWS MAINLY 35-40 F...EXCEPT
40-45 F NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS AGREE WITH TROUGH PUSHING A BIT CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA
(ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW OVER GA/FL) FRI INTO EARLY SAT. IN MID
LEVELS THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVING
ALONG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US. THIS ENERGY IS NOT WELL HANDLED BY
ANY OF THE MODELS, SO PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. FOR NOW, HAVE
LEANED MORE TOWARD THE DRIER NAM/ECMWF (GFS IS AN OUTLIER IN
BRINGING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FRI
NIGHT/SAT). STILL...WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
OVER THE SOUTHERN/SE 1/3 OF THE AREA, WITH CHANCE POPS OVER PARTS
OF NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY
FOLLOWED MOS GUIDANCE, WHICH KEEPS MOST MINS IN THE 40S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
BY SAT AFTN ALL MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK FRONT CROSSING THE AREA
WITH HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CLEAR THE
SKIES ACROSS THE AREA AS IT PUSHES THE TROUGH FARTHER OFF THE
COAST. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON SATURDAY GETTING BACK TO THE MID 60S SE TO AROUND 70 F NW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL
EXTEND INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND OH/TN VALLEYS SAT NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A COASTAL LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS NOW EXPECTED
TO STAY SHUNTED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND THEN TRACK NE
WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH SUN. THE STRETCHED OUT SFC
HIGH AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER RIDGING WILL PASS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION SUN INTO EARLY MON. THE SFC HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF
THE COAST DURING THE DAY AS THE MID/UPPER RIDGING FLATTENS. A
RELATIVELY FLAT (WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN
INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE...MOVING OFFSHORE BY WED MORNING.
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW TRAVELING ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
ON MON/TUE. GFS PRECIP-GENERATION AND GENERAL MOVEMENT CONTINUES
TO BE AGGRESSIVE/FAST VERSUS THE ECMWF. HAVE THEREFORE TRIED TO
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH THE POP FORECAST...LEANING TWD SLIGHTLY
SLOWER TIMING TO THE ONSET OF PRECIP MON NIGHT AND LIMITING
OVERALL COVERAGE ON TUE TO NO HIGHER THAN 40 PERCENT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRAIGHT-FORWARD SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS NEAR
NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COASTS). HIGHS SAT/SUN RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 65 DEGREES FAR NE TO 70
DEGREES SW. AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH WED...THE TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY
IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM SECTOR DEVELOPS. WITH PRECIP
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AT SOME POINT MON NIGHT...INCREASING
CIRRUS DURING THE DAY MON SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S
WEST OF I-95 WITH WARMER TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S EAST OF I-95
(MID-UPPER 60S MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS TUE SHOULD BE IN THE
LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE CHES
BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES WITH HIGHS
ON WED IN THE MID 70S INLAND TO UPPER 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
LOW TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE ON MON/TUE/WED NIGHTS SHOULD ALSO BE
WARM WITH READINGS IN THE 50S (OR ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED THRU EARLY THIS MORNING. SFC RIDGING
FM THE NE WILL THEN HELP TO BRING IN STRATOCU CLOUDS...WHICH COULD
GO TO MVFR CIGS...OVER SE VA/NE NC TAF SITES (ORF/ECG) DURING
TODAY...DUE TO MOIST ONSHORE FLOW. NE WINDS MAY BE GUSTY ONCE
AGAIN AT THESE SITES ALSO FM LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENG.

OUTLOOK...DUE TO CONTINUED RATHER STRONG HI PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...THE CHC FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
INCREASE THRU FRI NGT...ESPLY ACRS SE PORTIONS. THERE WILL ALSO
BE A CHC FOR SHOWERS LATE FRI AND FRI NGT.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FLAGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTN FOR THE ERN VA
RIVERS AND NRN CHES BAY ZNS...AND THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE SRN
CHES BAY. HI PRES WILL SLIDE ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY THRU FRI...MAINTAINING NE WINDS OVR THE
WTRS. THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE SEAS TO REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE 5 FT FOR ALL CSTL WTRS THRU AT LEAST LATE FRI NGT. FRI NGT
THRU MON...LO PRES WILL TRACK ACRS FLORIDA...THEN ENE WELL OFF THE
MID ATLC CST. WHILE...HI PRES WILL BLD FM THE NRN GRT LAKES EWRD
ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND OFF THE CST. THIS SCENARIO WILL MAINTAIN
GENERALLY N OR NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT ACRS THE WTRS FRI NGT THRU
MON.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ021>024.
NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ012.
VA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ048-049-
     060>085-087>090-092.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ630-
     631-635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/JAB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG







000
FXUS61 KRNK 170825
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
425 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
U.S. THROUGH FRIDAY KEEPING A RELATIVELY COOL AIR MASS ACROSS THE
REGION. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY THROUGH THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES INTO SATURDAY...WHICH WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE
ENTIRE AREA AND A CHANCE OF RAIN TO NORTH CAROLINA AND FAR
SOUTHERN VIRGINIA. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT THURSDAY...

BENIGN FORECAST THROUGH THE NEAR TERM AS LARGE AREA OF COLD...DRY
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND DOMINATES THE REGION. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES/EASTERN GULF LATE
IN THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY FAR SOUTH THROUGH THIS TIME
FRAME TO HAVE NO IMPACT ON THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. A
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST
WILL ALSO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT OTHER THAN ALSO SOME HIGH CLOUDS
LATE IN THE PERIOD. MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND FROST POTENTIAL. WILL LET
CURRENT FREEZE WARNING FOR THE PIEDMONT RUNS ITS COURSE THROUGH 9
AM. FOR FRIDAY MORNING...ANY FREEZING TEMPERATURES LOOK VERY
SPOTTY AS AIR MASS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MODIFY. MORE
IMPORTANTLY...HOWEVER...WILL BE STRENGTHENING EASTERLY FLOW IN
RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHEAST. THE EXTENT
OF THIS WIND FLOW IS NOT TOTALLY CLEAR AT THIS POINT...BUT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE THAT WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH
VALLEY THAT ENOUGH DECOUPLING WILL EXIST FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
WIDESPREAD FROST AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S
AFTER LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. THUS...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED
A FROST ADVISORY FOR BOTETOURT...AMHERST...AND ROCKBRIDGE...THE
MAIN AREA OF CONCERN AT THIS POINT. DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO CONSIDER
EXPANDING THIS FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF
CONFIDENCE IN DECOUPLING ALLOWING FOR FROST FORMATION. GROUND IS
QUITE MOIST...SO IF WINDS REMAIN LIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
COLD ENOUGH FOR FROST TO DEVELOP.

FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE ONCE AGAIN FAVORED THE COLDER ECMWF MOS
GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS BEEN HANDLING THE LAST FEW DAYS QUITE WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT THURSDAY...

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...A COLD AIR DAMMING RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. PROGRESSIVELY INCREASING
MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL PROGRESS INTO THE AREA ON SOUTHEAST
WINDS...ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE RIDGE. ANTICIPATE AT LEAST A MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKY ON FRIDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER FRIDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER FEATURE ALSO WILL BE CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASED CLOUD
COVER TO AREA IN GENERAL...AND POTENTIALLY SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE REGION. 00Z/8PM GUIDANCE
AMONG THE GFS...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS BRING A CLOSED LOW
SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES WITH THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD BRUSHING OUR SOUTHERN TIER
COUNTIES BY FRIDAY EVENING...CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND
CONCLUDING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE LOW ITSELF IS PROGGED TO
CONTINUE A SLOW NORTHEAST TRACK AND EXIT THE U.S. OFF THE GA/SC
COAST AROUND SATURDAY EVENING.

WHILE THESE THREE SOLUTIONS ARE SIMILAR...THEY ARE A SHIFT NORTH
AS COMPARED TO THEIR EARLIER COUNTERPARTS THAT HAD DRY
SOLUTIONS...AND THE 00Z/8PM NAM SOLUTION HAS MAINTAINED A MORE
SOUTHERLY...AND THUS DRIER AND WARMER SOLUTION FOR OUR REGION. GIVEN
THIS...WILL OFFER NO MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN FROM
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NC EASTWARD ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER DURING
THE FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT TIME FRAME...AND GREATER CLOUD COVER...AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS A WHOLE.

WILL REFRAIN FROM CONTINUING THE SLIGHT CHANCE INTO SATURDAY AT THIS
POINT...AND ALLOW OUR FORECAST TO CONTINUE FORWARD NEARLY UNCHANGED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THIS SOLUTION IS ONE THAT
KEEPS THE REGION WITHIN A ZONE OF DRY...HIGH PRESSURE...WITH EVER
SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE THE CLOSED LOW
SPINS OFF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

UPPER RIDGING BUILDING BEHIND A CLOSE UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WILL PROVIDE A NICE BOOST IN TEMPS FOR MUCH OF THE LONG
TERM. DESPITE CLOUDS AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES...WARM SW FLOW SHOULD SHOVE +10C H85 AIR OUR WAY
INTO TUESDAY. H8H TEMPS ARE ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLED BY THIS BOUNDARY
WITH SHOWERS PROBABLY CONFINED TO TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY
MORNING. HEIGHTS BUILD QUICKLY BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE IN RESPONSE
TO A CLOSED LOW AND DIGGING NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH THROUGH THE
ROCKIES...WITH THE WARM PATTERN CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM EDT THURSDAY...

VFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A LARGE
COLD...DRY HIGH PRESSURE AREA CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE
DEEPENING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF SE GA/SC/NORTHERN FL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WHICH WILL PROLONG THE E-NE SFC FLOW INTO THE REGION FOR
SEVERAL DAYS. AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ESE-SE THU NIGHT INTO
FRI AND INCREASED MARITIME FLOW...SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE AREAS ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT THIS IS WELL BEYOND THIS VALID TAF PERIOD.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO SPREAD TOWARD THE REGION BY THE END OF THIS
TAF VALID PERIOD AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE MIDWEST.
JUST BEYOND 00Z FRI...EXPECT BKN-OVC 250 TO DEVELOP...BUT NOT
UNTIL THEN. WINDS ENE-ESE THROUGH THE PERIOD AT 6-9KTS...WITH LOW
END GUSTS POSSIBLE LYH/ROA DURING THE DAYTIME AND ALL HOURS AT
BLF.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY WHILE ANOTHER
SYSTEM STAYS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASE CLOUDS FRIDAY-SATURDAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST BUT MOST PLACES
SHOULD STAY VFR...POTENTIALLY MVFR EARLY FRI ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
VFR FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
AND MID ATLANTIC. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO BRING MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR
CIGS AND -SHRA TO THE AREA DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL EARLY TO MID PART
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 1000 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

RECORD LOWS AT BLACKSBURG...BLUEFIELD AND LEWISBURG THIS MORNING

BLACKSBURG TIED THEIRS AT 24...BLUEFIELD TIED THEIRS AT 23 AND
LEWISBURG BROKE THEIRS AT 23.


APRIL 17TH RECORD LOWS

ROANOKE 27F 1980......FORECASTED LOW 31F.
LYNCHBURG 27F 1904....FORECASTED LOW 30F.
DANVILLE 28F 1962.....FORECASTED LOW 30F.
BLUEFIELD 25F 2001....FORECASTED LOW 32F.
BLACKSBURG 20F 1974...FORECASTED LOW 26F.
LEWISBURG 25F 2001....FORECASTED LOW 20F.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ022>024-
     032>035-043>047-058-059.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ023-024-035.
NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ003>006-019-
     020.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...RAB
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...KM
AVIATION...KK/RAB
CLIMATE...JC/KM




000
FXUS61 KLWX 170800
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL RIDGE SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA SATURDAY. A SECOND
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

AS OF 07Z...1041MB SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER NRN MAINE WITH A SFC
RIDGE/COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST DOWN THE PIEDMONT
TO THE DEEP SOUTH STATES. THE RIDGE AXIS ROUGHLY EXTENDS DOWN I-95
WITH ELY FLOW OVER THE BAY AND SRN MD AND MAINLY CALM CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE. SKIES ARE CLEAR WITH OFFSHORE LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE GULF
STREAM/LABRADOR CURRENT BOUNDARY OFF THE DELMARVA (ACCORDING TO
GOES-EAST IR IMAGERY). TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY LOW TO MID 30S
WITH UPR 30S FOR NEARSHORE AND URBAN AREAS.

THE WEDGE PERSISTS TODAY. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AGAIN...THOUGH EAST OF
THE RIDGE AXIS COULD SEE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS SPREAD IN FROM THE
OCEAN (THE DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS). THE WARM MID APRIL
SUN WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY THE AIRMASS WITH MAX TEMPS GENERALLY MID
50S ACROSS THE BALT-WASH METRO WITH UPR 50S TO LOW 60S OVER WEST AND
SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE CWA. AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SHOULD
BE WELL PROTECTED FROM LOW CLOUDS AND COULD WARM INTO THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THE QUESTION FOR TONIGHT IS WILL LIGHT FLOW PREVENT DECOUPLING AND
WILL LOW CLOUDS SPREAD ACROSS AT LEAST EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA.
NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE CLOUDIER THAN GFS ONES...AND THUS MET
GUIDANCE MIN TEMPERATURES ARE HIGHER THAN MAV ONES. NORTH CENTRAL
MARYLAND SEEMS TO BE THE COLDEST AREAS WITH AN ACTIVE GROWING SEASON
TONIGHT. WITH MINS FORECAST IN THE LOW 30S...WENT AHEAD WITH A
FREEZE WATCH FOR FREDERICK MD TO HARFORD. DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO
DETERMINE IF A FROST/FREEZE OR NEITHER IS NECESSARY.

FRIDAY...MODIFICATION/MODERATION CONTINUES WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPR
50S EAST TO MID 60S WEST. CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY AN
IMPORTANT ROLE WITH THE SFC RIDGE AXIS NEARLY STATIONARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MID ATLC HAS XPRNCD WHAT SEEMED LK A NEVERENDING SERIES OF WVS.
BUT FOR A CHG THE WX SHOULD BE RLVTLY BENIGN IN THE XTND - NO
WINTRY CONCERNS FOR ONE THING. OVERALL UPR LVL FLOW COULD BE
CHARACTERIZED AS A FAIRLY HIGH ZNL NEAR THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER.
THIS WL AID IN KEEPING TEMPS ON THE MODERATE SIDE - NEITHER TOO
HOT OR COLD...MORE LK WHAT SHOULD BE OCCURRING IN MID APR. ONE
SHORT WV IS XPCTD TO PUSH THRU THE NERN U.S. BUT THIS IS LOOKING
LESS AND LESS LK A PCPN PRODUCER.

THE NEXT PCPN CHC LOOKS TO BE ON TUE W/ ANOTHER FROPA. NO COLD
TEMPS TO WORRY ABT - HIGHS IN THE L70S...LOWS IN THE U40S/L50S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

VFR AT LEAST INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TERMINALS. A SFC RIDGE
WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW I-95 AND EAST. OCEAN
CLOUDS WITH MVFR CIGS MAY MOVE IN LATE TODAY/TONIGHT IN THIS ONSHORE
FLOW. RISK FOR MVFR CIGS ALSO FOR FRIDAY.

VFR CONDS ARE XPCTD FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE XTND PD.

&&

.MARINE...

ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS. OFTEN TIMES THIS FLOW IS STRONGER
THAN PROGGED BY MODELS. SO FAR HOWEVER...ELY FLOW HAS MAINLY BEEN
GUSTING TO 15 KT...LESS THAN PROGGED BY MODELS. STILL EXPECT IT TO
INCREASE THIS MORNING AS NELY FLOW OVERSPREADS THE WATERS. A BIT OF
A LULL DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AGAIN. SCA
MOST OF THE MD PART OF THE BAY THIS MORNING...THEN SRN MD WATERS FOR
THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE WATERS IN AN SCA TONIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW
LOOKS TO BE SUB SCA FOR FRIDAY.

WINDS MAY GUST TO 20 KT ON SAT. NO PROBS FORESEEN SUNDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOWS FOR APRIL 17...
                     3 AM TEMP
BWI...26F IN 1962    33
DCA...26F IN 1875    41
IAD...27F IN 1983    30

&&

.EQUIPMENT...

MANASSAS NWR XTMR IS WORKING INTERMITTENTLY. PHONE TECHNICIANS HAVE
BEEN NOTIFIED.



&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR DCZ001.
MD...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ004>007-
     009>011-013-014-016>018.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     MDZ004>007.
VA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ036>040-042-
     050>057-501-502.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     540-541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ531-536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ530-
     531-538-539.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...BAJ/WOODY!







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 170800
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
400 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFF TO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINTAINING
A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A SLOW MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PERSIST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OVER THE
WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NPW/FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 13Z WITH NO CHANGES
PLANNED. LATEST TEMPERATURES ARE GENLY IN THE 30 TO 35 F RANGE
WITHIN THE WARNED AREA...WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO BE STEADY OR
DROP ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO THROUGH SUNRISE. TEMPS IN THE 40S ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH ONSHORE FLOW. SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A
STRONG/1040 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY RIDGING
SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLC. CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL...BUT WITH LOW
STRATUS NOT FAR OFF THE COAST AND SLOWLY PUSHING TO THE WEST.

FOR TODAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER OFFSHORE SHOULD BE ABLE
TO MIGRATE INTO AT LEAST THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTN. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH
THE GFS GENLY BEING THE CLOUDIEST (PROBABLY TOO CLOUDY FOR AREAS
WELL INLAND BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS). OVERALL...WILL EXPECT SKIES
TO REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WELL INLAND...WHILE BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER THE ERN SHORE AS WELL AS FAR SE VA/NE NC. TOO
SHALLOW OF A MOISTURE LAYER TO INCLUDE ANY PRECIP CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST. THE NE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVG AGAIN TODAY
(ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS CHILLY AS YESTERDAY). EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY
50-55 F NEAR THE COAST (LOCALLY UPPER 40S IN A FEW SPOTS ON THE
ERN SHORE) TO 55-60 F WELL INLAND.

FOR TONIGHT...TRENDS IN MODELS SUGGEST A BIT LESS IN THE WAY OF
CLOUD COVER SO HAVE DROPPED MINS A FEW DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY SO EVEN WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WELL INLAND DO NOT EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP TO 32
F...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE CLOSE IN SOME AREAS WEST OF I-95 SO WILL
MENTION THIS IN THE HWO. OTHERWISE...LOWS MAINLY 35-40 F...EXCEPT
40-45 F NEAR THE COAST.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS AGREE WITH TROUGH PUSHING A BIT CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA
(ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW OVER GA/FL) FRI INTO EARLY SAT. IN MID
LEVELS THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVING
ALONG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US. THIS ENERGY IS NOT WELL HANDLED BY
ANY OF THE MODELS, SO PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. FOR NOW, HAVE
LEANED MORE TOWARD THE DRIER NAM/ECMWF (GFS IS AN OUTLIER IN
BRINGING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FRI
NIGHT/SAT). STILL...WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
OVER THE SOUTHERN/SE 1/3 OF THE AREA, WITH CHANCE POPS OVER PARTS
OF NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY
FOLLOWED MOS GUIDANCE, WHICH KEEPS MOST MINS IN THE 40S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
BY SAT AFTN ALL MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK FRONT CROSSING THE AREA
WITH HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CLEAR THE
SKIES ACROSS THE AREA AS IT PUSHES THE TROUGH FARTHER OFF THE
COAST. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON SATURDAY GETTING BACK TO THE MID 60S SE TO AROUND 70 F NW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL
EXTEND INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND OH/TN VALLEYS SAT NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A COASTAL LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS NOW EXPECTED
TO STAY SHUNTED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND THEN TRACK NE
WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH SUN. THE STRETCHED OUT SFC
HIGH AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER RIDGING WILL PASS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION SUN INTO EARLY MON. THE SFC HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF
THE COAST DURING THE DAY AS THE MID/UPPER RIDGING FLATTENS. A
RELATIVELY FLAT (WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN
INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE...MOVING OFFSHORE BY WED MORNING.
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW TRAVELING ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
ON MON/TUE. GFS PRECIP-GENERATION AND GENERAL MOVEMENT CONTINUES
TO BE AGGRESSIVE/FAST VERSUS THE ECMWF. HAVE THEREFORE TRIED TO
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH THE POP FORECAST...LEANING TWD SLIGHTLY
SLOWER TIMING TO THE ONSET OF PRECIP MON NIGHT AND LIMITING
OVERALL COVERAGE ON TUE TO NO HIGHER THAN 40 PERCENT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRAIGHT-FORWARD SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS NEAR
NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COASTS). HIGHS SAT/SUN RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 65 DEGREES FAR NE TO 70
DEGREES SW. AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH WED...THE TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY
IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM SECTOR DEVELOPS. WITH PRECIP
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AT SOME POINT MON NIGHT...INCREASING
CIRRUS DURING THE DAY MON SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S
WEST OF I-95 WITH WARMER TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S EAST OF I-95
(MID-UPPER 60S MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS TUE SHOULD BE IN THE
LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE CHES
BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES WITH HIGHS
ON WED IN THE MID 70S INLAND TO UPPER 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
LOW TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE ON MON/TUE/WED NIGHTS SHOULD ALSO BE
WARM WITH READINGS IN THE 50S (OR ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED THRU EARLY THIS MORNING. SFC RIDGING
FM THE NE WILL THEN HELP TO BRING IN STRATOCU CLOUDS...WHICH COULD
GO TO MVFR CIGS...OVER SE VA/NE NC TAF SITES (ORF/ECG) DURING
TODAY...DUE TO MOIST ONSHORE FLOW. NE WINDS MAY BE GUSTY ONCE
AGAIN AT THESE SITES ALSO FM LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENG.

OUTLOOK...DUE TO CONTINUED RATHER STRONG HI PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...THE CHC FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
INCREASE THRU FRI NGT...ESPLY ACRS SE PORTIONS. THERE WILL ALSO
BE A CHC FOR SHOWERS LATE FRI AND FRI NGT.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FLAGS NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THU AFTN FOR ERN VA RIVERS
AND NRN CHES BAY...AND THROUGH THU EVENING FOR SRN CHES BAY. AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...
WINDS TURN TO THE NE AND ANOTHER PUSH OF COLD AIR (ALBEIT WEAKER)
IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THU AFTN...WHICH WILL
INCREASE SPEEDS INTO SCA THRESHOLDS DURING THIS TIME. ALSO...THE
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE SEAS TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT
FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH FRI EVENING. PROLONGED SCA FLAGS
ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME BUT
WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED THROUGH SAT DUE TO SEAS STAYING AT OR
ABOVE 5 FT IN PERSISTENT NE/ONSHORE FLOW.

THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS APPEARS TO BE SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN MORNING AS A WEAK LOW PASSING ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND
PUSHES A WEAK BACKDOOR TROUGH AND A COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS THE
WATERS. WIND DIRECTION REMAINS IN AN ONSHORE DIRECTION AND SEAS
COULD BRIEFLY REACH ABOVE 5 FT AGAIN.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ021>024.
NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ012.
VA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ048-049-
     060>085-087>090-092.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-650-652-
     654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ630-
     631-635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ632-634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/JAB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 170549
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
149 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
STATES TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BECOME CENTERED FROM NEW ENGLAND TO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINTAINING NORTHEAST
FLOW AND MUCH COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO FREEZE WARNING...ADDING INLAND
WORCESTER MD AND GLOUCESTER/WILLIAMSBURG. OTHERWISE, NPW/FREEZE
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 13Z.

EARLY EVENING WEATHER ANALYSIS FEATURES SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER WESTERN NEW YORK/ERN GREAT LAKES, WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING DOWN OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. RESULTANT NE FLOW OFF THE
STILL COOL WATERS HAS ALLOWED COASTAL LOCALES TO AVERAGE BETWEEN
3-5 DEG COOLER THAN INLAND SECTIONS, WHERE WINDS ARE LIGHT...AND
SHOULD REMAIN SO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONSIDERING CLEAR
SKY AND LIGHT WINDS, STILL EXPECTING TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO
THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S OVER MOST INLAND SECTIONS (HENCE THE
PREVIOUSLY REFERENCED FREEZE WARNING) OVERNIGHT. SEE CLIMO SECTION
FOR RECORD LOW TEMP VALUES.

TOUGH CALL ACROSS SE PERIPHERY OF WARNING..AND EXPECT SOME AREAS
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST RIGHT UP AGAINST NPW WILL (BRIEFLY)
FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S BY DAWN. WILL HANDLE THIS WITH A BUFFER
AREA HWO MENTIONING NEAR FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS SE VA/NE NC COASTAL
PLAIN. HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LOW SC PUSHING INLAND
ACROSS NC COASTAL PLAIN...AND EVENTUALLY SE VA BY MORNING.
HOWEVER, APPEARS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. EARLY MORNING LOWS WL RANGE FROM UPPER 20S FAR
WEST...TO UPPER 30S SE COASTAL AREAS.

THURSDAY...
ON THURSDAY CLOUDS IN ASSOCIATION W/COASTAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO LINGER ACROSS THE SE COAST. ANOTHER CHILLY DAY ON THURSDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. THE MILDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
WESTERN SECTIONS WHERE A SUNNY SKY PERSISTS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
OCEAN INFLUENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS AGREE WITH TROUGH DEVELOPING JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY MOVING ALONG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US. THIS ENERGY IS
NOT WELL HANDLED BY ANY OF THE MODELS, SO PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS. FOR NOW, HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE DRIER NAM BUT WILL
BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE AREA, WITH CHANCE POPS OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY
FOLLOWED MOS GUIDANCE, WHICH KEEPS MOST MINS IN THE 40S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY BACK INTO THE 60S. BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
ALL MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WITH
HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CLEAR THE SKIES
ACROSS THE AREA AS IT PUSHES THE TROUGH FARTHER OFF THE COAST.
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY GETTING BACK TO AROUND NORMAL IN THE LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL
EXTEND INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND OH/TN VALLEYS SAT NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A COASTAL LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS NOW EXPECTED
TO STAY SHUNTED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND THEN TRACK NE
WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH SUN. THE STRETCHED OUT SFC
HIGH AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER RIDGING WILL PASS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION SUN INTO EARLY MON. THE SFC HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF
THE COAST DURING THE DAY AS THE MID/UPPER RIDGING FLATTENS. A
RELATIVELY FLAT (WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN
INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE...MOVING OFFSHORE BY WED MORNING.
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW TRAVELING ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
ON MON/TUE. GFS PRECIP-GENERATION AND GENERAL MOVEMENT CONTINUES
TO BE AGGRESSIVE/FAST VERSUS THE ECMWF. HAVE THEREFORE TRIED TO
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH THE POP FORECAST...LEANING TWD SLIGHTLY
SLOWER TIMING TO THE ONSET OF PRECIP MON NIGHT AND LIMITING
OVERALL COVERAGE ON TUE TO NO HIGHER THAN 40 PERCENT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRAIGHT-FORWARD SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS NEAR
NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COASTS). HIGHS SAT/SUN RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 65 DEGREES FAR NE TO 70
DEGREES SW. AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH WED...THE TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY
IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM SECTOR DEVELOPS. WITH PRECIP
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AT SOME POINT MON NIGHT...INCREASING
CIRRUS DURING THE DAY MON SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S
WEST OF I-95 WITH WARMER TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S EAST OF I-95
(MID-UPPER 60S MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS TUE SHOULD BE IN THE
LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE CHES
BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES WITH HIGHS
ON WED IN THE MID 70S INLAND TO UPPER 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
LOW TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE ON MON/TUE/WED NIGHTS SHOULD ALSO BE
WARM WITH READINGS IN THE 50S (OR ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED THRU EARLY THIS MORNING. SFC RIDGING
FM THE NE WILL THEN HELP TO BRING IN STRATOCU CLOUDS...WHICH COULD
GO TO MVFR CIGS...OVER SE VA/NE NC TAF SITES (ORF/ECG) DURING
TODAY...DUE TO MOIST ONSHORE FLOW. NE WINDS MAY BE GUSTY ONCE
AGAIN AT THESE SITES ALSO FM LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENG.

OUTLOOK...DUE TO CONTINUED RATHER STRONG HI PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...THE CHC FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
INCREASE THRU FRI NGT...ESPLY ACRS SE PORTIONS. THERE WILL ALSO
BE A CHC FOR SHOWERS LATE FRI AND FRI NGT.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FLAGS NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THU AFTN FOR ERN VA RIVERS
AND NRN CHES BAY...AND THROUGH THU EVENING FOR SRN CHES BAY. AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...
WINDS TURN TO THE NE AND ANOTHER PUSH OF COLD AIR (ALBEIT WEAKER)
IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THU AFTN...WHICH WILL
INCREASE SPEEDS INTO SCA THRESHOLDS DURING THIS TIME. ALSO...THE
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE SEAS TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT
FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH FRI EVENING. PROLONGED SCA FLAGS
ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME BUT
WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED THROUGH SAT DUE TO SEAS STAYING AT OR
ABOVE 5 FT IN PERSISTENT NE/ONSHORE FLOW.

THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS APPEARS TO BE SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN MORNING AS A WEAK LOW PASSING ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND
PUSHES A WEAK BACKDOOR TROUGH AND A COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS THE
WATERS. WIND DIRECTION REMAINS IN AN ONSHORE DIRECTION AND SEAS
COULD BRIEFLY REACH ABOVE 5 FT AGAIN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY 4/16 (AND UNOFFICIAL HIGHS):

RIC...45 (1929) (UNOFFICIAL HIGH 53)
ORF...46 (1935) (47)
SBY...45 (1935) (51)
ECG...52 (1962 & 1952) (50)

RECORD LOWS FOR THU 4/17:

RIC...31 (1949)
ORF...34 (1875)
SBY...26 (2008)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ021>024.
NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ012.
VA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ048-049-
     060>085-087>090-092.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-650-652-
     654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ630-
     631-635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ632-634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...MAM/JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...BMD
CLIMATE...AKQ







000
FXUS61 KRNK 170542
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
142 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN FACE OF THE
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
OF THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING
TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOR EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1036 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

1036MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND BUILDING DOWN THE
EAST COAST. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING...CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW FREEZING.
THE FREEZE WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING IN THE EAST WHERE FROST- FREEZE PROGRAM ON GOING. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 20 DEGREES IN THE
COLDEST MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO THE LOWER 30S ALONG THE SOUTHERN
FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGH CENTER WILL REMAIN
IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THURSDAY. A EASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN
HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE LOWER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S. WILL HAVE
TO LOOK AT LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR ANOTHER FREEZE. HAVE A GOOD NIGHT.

AS OF 726 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN ISC GRIDS. FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE
FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

AS OF 300 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

ANOTHER COOL NIGHT AHEAD WITH HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING SOUTHWEST FROM
THE CENTER IN NEW YORK. APPEARS A FREEZE ALREADY HEADLINED IN THE
EAST WILL BE CERTAIN. RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION INTO
THURSDAY WITH THE LOW LVL FLOW WORKING MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST. MODELS
SHOWING SOME SMALL INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS LATE BUT OVERALL A DRY DAY.

NOT EXPECTING MUCH CLOUD COVER OUTSIDE ANY THIN CIRRUS.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE NEAR 20 IN THE VALLEYS THE MID
TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...AND MAYBE AROUND 30 IN
BLF/RICHLANDS PER SE FLOW LATE.

DRY WEDGE THURSDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPS COOL BUT NOT
COLD...WITH HIGHS ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOOKING FOR
READINGS IN THE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT AROUND 60
SOUTHEAST AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WEST OF BLF/MKJ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

A FREEZE WATCH COULD BE CONSIDERED AGAIN FOR PARTS OF THE PIEDMONT
TOMORROW NIGHT...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE OF FREEZING TEMPS IS NOT
EXPECTED BE AS WIDESPREAD AS WED AND THURSDAY MORNING. UNEVENTFUL
PERIOD...WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE DEPARTING...AND WEAK
BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH PASSING BY MAINLY DRY FRIDAY EVENING.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT AND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE AGAIN FOR SUNDAY MORNING...MIN TEMPS MAY DIP AT
LEAST A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE TO START SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

UPPER RIDGING BUILDING BEHIND A CLOSE UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WILL PROVIDE A NICE BOOST IN TEMPS FOR MUCH OF THE LONG
TERM. DESPITE CLOUDS AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES...WARM SW FLOW SHOULD SHOVE +10C H85 AIR OUR WAY
INTO TUESDAY. H8H TEMPS ARE ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLED BY THIS BOUNDARY
WITH SHOWERS PROBABLY CONFINED TO TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY
MORNING. HEIGHTS BUILD QUICKLY BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE IN RESPONSE
TO A CLOSED LOW AND DIGGING NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH THROUGH THE
ROCKIES...WITH THE WARM PATTERN CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM EDT THURSDAY...

VFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A LARGE
COLD...DRY HIGH PRESSURE AREA CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE
DEEPENING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF SE GA/SC/NORTHERN FL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WHICH WILL PROLONG THE E-NE SFC FLOW INTO THE REGION FOR
SEVERAL DAYS. AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ESE-SE THU NIGHT INTO
FRI AND INCREASED MARITIME FLOW...SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE AREAS ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT THIS IS WELL BEYOND THIS VALID TAF PERIOD.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO SPREAD TOWARD THE REGION BY THE END OF THIS
TAF VALID PERIOD AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE MIDWEST.
JUST BEYOND 00Z FRI...EXPECT BKN-OVC 250 TO DEVELOP...BUT NOT
UNTIL THEN. WINDS ENE-ESE THROUGH THE PERIOD AT 6-9KTS...WITH LOW
END GUSTS POSSIBLE LYH/ROA DURING THE DAYTIME AND ALL HOURS AT
BLF.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY WHILE ANOTHER
SYSTEM STAYS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASE CLOUDS FRIDAY-SATURDAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST BUT MOST PLACES
SHOULD STAY VFR...POTENTIALLY MVFR EARLY FRI ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
VFR FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
AND MID ATLANTIC. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO BRING MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR
CIGS AND -SHRA TO THE AREA DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL EARLY TO MID PART
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 1000 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

RECORD LOWS AT BLACKSBURG...BLUEFIELD AND LEWISBURG THIS MORNING

BLACKSBURG TIED THEIRS AT 24...BLUEFIELD TIED THEIRS AT 23 AND
LEWISBURG BROKE THEIRS AT 23.


APRIL 17TH RECORD LOWS

ROANOKE 27F 1980......FORECASTED LOW 31F.
LYNCHBURG 27F 1904....FORECASTED LOW 30F.
DANVILLE 28F 1962.....FORECASTED LOW 30F.
BLUEFIELD 25F 2001....FORECASTED LOW 32F.
BLACKSBURG 20F 1974...FORECASTED LOW 26F.
LEWISBURG 25F 2001....FORECASTED LOW 20F.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ022>024-
     032>035-043>047-058-059.
NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ003>006-019-
     020.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF/WP
NEAR TERM...KK/WP
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...KM
AVIATION...KK/RAB
CLIMATE...JC/KM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 170237
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1037 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN FACE OF THE
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
OF THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING
TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOR EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1036 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

1036MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND BUILDING DOWN THE
EAST COAST. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING...CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW FREEZING.
THE FREEZE WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING IN THE EAST WHERE FROST- FREEZE PROGRAM ON GOING. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 20 DEGREES IN THE
COLDEST MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO THE LOWER 30S ALONG THE SOUTHERN
FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGH CENTER WILL REMAIN
IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THURSDAY. A EASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN
HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE LOWER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S. WILL HAVE
TO LOOK AT LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR ANOTHER FREEZE. HAVE A GOOD NIGHT.

AS OF 726 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN ISC GRIDS. FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE
FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

AS OF 300 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

ANOTHER COOL NIGHT AHEAD WITH HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING SOUTHWEST FROM
THE CENTER IN NEW YORK. APPEARS A FREEZE ALREADY HEADLINED IN THE
EAST WILL BE CERTAIN. RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION INTO
THURSDAY WITH THE LOW LVL FLOW WORKING MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST. MODELS
SHOWING SOME SMALL INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS LATE BUT OVERALL A DRY DAY.

NOT EXPECTING MUCH CLOUD COVER OUTSIDE ANY THIN CIRRUS.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE NEAR 20 IN THE VALLEYS THE MID
TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...AND MAYBE AROUND 30 IN
BLF/RICHLANDS PER SE FLOW LATE.

DRY WEDGE THURSDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPS COOL BUT NOT
COLD...WITH HIGHS ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOOKING FOR
READINGS IN THE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT AROUND 60
SOUTHEAST AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WEST OF BLF/MKJ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

A FREEZE WATCH COULD BE CONSIDERED AGAIN FOR PARTS OF THE PIEDMONT
TOMORROW NIGHT...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE OF FREEZING TEMPS IS NOT
EXPECTED BE AS WIDESPREAD AS WED AND THURSDAY MORNING. UNEVENTFUL
PERIOD...WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE DEPARTING...AND WEAK
BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH PASSING BY MAINLY DRY FRIDAY EVENING.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT AND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE AGAIN FOR SUNDAY MORNING...MIN TEMPS MAY DIP AT
LEAST A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE TO START SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

UPPER RIDGING BUILDING BEHIND A CLOSE UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WILL PROVIDE A NICE BOOST IN TEMPS FOR MUCH OF THE LONG
TERM. DESPITE CLOUDS AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES...WARM SW FLOW SHOULD SHOVE +10C H85 AIR OUR WAY
INTO TUESDAY. H8H TEMPS ARE ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLED BY THIS BOUNDARY
WITH SHOWERS PROBABLY CONFINED TO TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY
MORNING. HEIGHTS BUILD QUICKLY BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE IN RESPONSE
TO A CLOSED LOW AND DIGGING NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH THROUGH THE
ROCKIES...WITH THE WARM PATTERN CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 729 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND WHILE WEDGING SOUTHWEST INTO OUR THRU THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NE-E TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY.

SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CIGS THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY MORNING PER
SE FLOW AND INCREASE MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT LYH/DAN.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WIND
FORECAST DURING THE TAF PERIOD.


THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY WHILE ANOTHER
SYSTEM STAYS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASE CLOUDS FRIDAY-SATURDAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST BUT MOST PLACES
SHOULD STAY VFR. VFR FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 1000 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

RIVER FLOOD WARNING FOR MINOR FLOODING AT SOUTH BOSTON THROUGH
TOMORROW. REST OF THE RIVERS ARE GOING TO CREST BELOW FLOOD
STAGE...BUT RISES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 1000 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

RECORD LOWS AT BLACKSBURG...BLUEFIELD AND LEWISBURG THIS MORNING

BLACKSBURG TIED THEIRS AT 24...BLUEFIELD TIED THEIRS AT 23 AND
LEWISBURG BROKE THEIRS AT 23.


APRIL 17TH RECORD LOWS

ROANOKE 27F 1980......FORECASTED LOW 31F.
LYNCHBURG 27F 1904....FORECASTED LOW 30F.
DANVILLE 28F 1962.....FORECASTED LOW 30F.
BLUEFIELD 25F 2001....FORECASTED LOW 32F.
BLACKSBURG 20F 1974...FORECASTED LOW 26F.
LEWISBURG 25F 2001....FORECASTED LOW 20F.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ022>024-032>035-
     043>047-058-059.
NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ003>006-019-020.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF/WP
NEAR TERM...KK/WP
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...KM
AVIATION...KK/WP
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...JC/KM/WP




000
FXUS61 KLWX 170129
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
929 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL RIDGE SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A 1036 MB SFC HIGH THAT IS CENTERED OVER NRN NEW ENGLAND AT 00Z
RIDGES SWD INTO OUR REGION. WINDS HAD ALREADY DECOUPLED AT THE SFC
IN MOST LOCATIONS AFTER SUNSET AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
PRESENT...SETTING THE STAGE FOR TEMPS TO DROP QUICKLY TNGT UNDER A
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP. EXCEPT FOR SOME LOCATIONS ALONG
THE WATERS AND IN THE CITIES...TEMPS WILL FALL AOB FREEZING OVNGT.
FOR THE SECOND STRAIGHT NIGHT...FREEZE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR
ALL COUNTIES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE THE GROWING SEASON IS
ACTIVE. A HARD FREEZE IS POSSIBLE IN THE MORE RURAL AREAS WEST OF
I-95.

N-NELY WINDS AROUND THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY VEER OUT OF THE EAST
LATE TNGT AND THU AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST. MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT INLAND UNDER ONSHORE
FLOW IN THE LLVLS. MODELS SHOW MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION TO THE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER ACCORDINGLY ACROSS THE ERN CWA DURING THE LATE MRNG AND
AFTN. MAX TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AND IN THE 50S. SOME
SPOTS IN THE CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VLY AND VLYS OF THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS MAY REACH 60F WITH MORE SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE CAROLINAS WILL
INTERACT WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BETWEEN THE EAST
COAST AND BERMUDA TO PRODUCE A MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THURSDAY EVENING BUT THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

AS THE HIGH PRESSURE PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL PIVOT ACROSS
EAST-CENTRAL CANADA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT BUT SHOULD BE A DRY
FRONT AS THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN.

AS THE SURFACE FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND EAST SATURDAY MORNING...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
SATURDAY BUT SHOULD DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TO THE AREA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RIDGING ERODES BY MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. RIDGING THEN
RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
LEADING TO A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THURSDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE VALID TAF PERIOD...WITH WINDS
VEERING FROM NORTHEAST TO EAST LATE TNGT AND THU. STRATOCU DECK
ASSOCIATED WITH MARINE LAYER MAY BECOME BKN AFTER 15Z THU OVER ERN
TERMINALS. CIGS WOULD LIKELY BE AROUND 4 KFT.

MARINE STRATOCU HOVERING NEAR VFR-MVFR LVLS THU NIGHT.

VFR FRI THROUGH SATURDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS MAY GUST 15 TO 20 KNOTS
THURSDAY NIGHT NEAR MTN...BWI AND DCA WITH A PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SATURDAY...WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND GUST 20 TO 30 KNOTS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED OUT OF THE E-NE THIS EVE AND SUBSIDED TO 10-15
KT. WINDS MAY INCREASE A BIT LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS VEER TO THE
EAST AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS EVER SO SLIGHTLY. SCA
IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND ACROSS THE WATERS ON THURSDAY.

NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST 20 TO 30 KNOTS. SUB-SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVELS REMAIN 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL BUT AS WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED AND THEN VEER TO THE EAST NEGATIVE DEPARTURES WILL
DECREASE THRU THU.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING...

TWO OF THE THREE MAJOR METRO AREA AIRPORTS...BWI AND IAD...GOT CLOSE
TO THEIR DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING.

AT REAGAN NATIONAL AIRPORT...DCA...A MORNING LOW OF 34F WAS WELL
ABOVE THE RECORD OF 29F SET ON THIS DATE IN 1928.

AT BALTIMORE-WASHINGTON INTERNATIONAL...BWI...A MORNING LOW TODAY OF
31F WAS JUST ONE DEGREE OFF THE RECORD LOW FOR THE DATE SET IN 1962.

AT DULLES...IAD...THE MIN OF 30F THIS MORNING WAS TWO DEGREES SHY OF
THE DAILY RECORD LOW OF 28F SET ON THIS DATE IN 1981.

REGARDING RECORD LOW DAILY MAX TEMPERATURES FOR APRIL 16...AS OF 3PM
TODAY...DULLES IS STILL TIED WITH ITS DAILY RECORD LOW-MAX OF 46F
BUT WITH SEVERAL HOURS LEFT OF SUN WILL LIKELY RISE ABOVE 46F. BOTH
BWI AND DCA HAVE RISEN ABOVE THEIR RESPECTIVE DAILY RECORD LOW-MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR APRIL 16.

RECORD LOWS FOR APRIL 17...

BWI...26F IN 1962
DCA...26F IN 1875
IAD...27F IN 1983

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MDZ004>007-
     009>011-013-014-016>018.
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ036>040-
     042-050>057-501-502.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ530>533-538>541.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ536-
     542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ534-537-
     543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JRK/BPP
NEAR TERM...JRK
SHORT TERM...KLW
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...JRK/KLW/DFH
MARINE...JRK/BPP/KLW/DFH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BPP/JRK
CLIMATE...SMZ








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 170055
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
855 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
STATES TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BECOME CENTERED FROM NEW ENGLAND TO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINTAINING NORTHEAST
FLOW AND MUCH COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO FREEZE WARNING...ADDING INLAND
WORCESTER MD AND GLOUCESTER/WILLIAMSBURG. OTHERWISE, NPW/FREEZE
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 13Z.

EARLY EVENING WEATHER ANALYSIS FEATURES SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER WESTERN NEW YORK/ERN GREAT LAKES, WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING DOWN OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. RESULTANT NE FLOW OFF THE
STILL COOL WATERS HAS ALLOWED COASTAL LOCALES TO AVERAGE BETWEEN
3-5 DEG COOLER THAN INLAND SECTIONS, WHERE WINDS ARE LIGHT...AND
SHOULD REMAIN SO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONSIDERING CLEAR
SKY AND LIGHT WINDS, STILL EXPECTING TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO
THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S OVER MOST INLAND SECTIONS (HENCE THE
PREVIOUSLY REFERENCED FREEZE WARNING) OVERNIGHT. SEE CLIMO SECTION
FOR RECORD LOW TEMP VALUES.

TOUGH CALL ACROSS SE PERIPHERY OF WARNING..AND EXPECT SOME AREAS
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST RIGHT UP AGAINST NPW WILL (BRIEFLY)
FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S BY DAWN. WILL HANDLE THIS WITH A BUFFER
AREA HWO MENTIONING NEAR FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS SE VA/NE NC COASTAL
PLAIN. HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LOW SC PUSHING INLAND
ACROSS NC COASTAL PLAIN...AND EVENTUALLY SE VA BY MORNING.
HOWEVER, APPEARS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. EARLY MORNING LOWS WL RANGE FROM UPPER 20S FAR
WEST...TO UPPER 30S SE COASTAL AREAS.

THURSDAY...
ON THURSDAY CLOUDS IN ASSOCIATION W/COASTAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO LINGER ACROSS THE SE COAST. ANOTHER CHILLY DAY ON THURSDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. THE MILDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
WESTERN SECTIONS WHERE A SUNNY SKY PERSISTS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
OCEAN INFLUENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS AGREE WITH TROUGH DEVELOPING JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY MOVING ALONG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US. THIS ENERGY IS
NOT WELL HANDLED BY ANY OF THE MODELS, SO PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS. FOR NOW, HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE DRIER NAM BUT WILL
BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE AREA, WITH CHANCE POPS OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY
FOLLOWED MOS GUIDANCE, WHICH KEEPS MOST MINS IN THE 40S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY BACK INTO THE 60S. BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
ALL MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WITH
HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CLEAR THE SKIES
ACROSS THE AREA AS IT PUSHES THE TROUGH FARTHER OFF THE COAST.
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY GETTING BACK TO AROUND NORMAL IN THE LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL
EXTEND INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND OH/TN VALLEYS SAT NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A COASTAL LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS NOW EXPECTED
TO STAY SHUNTED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND THEN TRACK NE
WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH SUN. THE STRETCHED OUT SFC
HIGH AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER RIDGING WILL PASS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION SUN INTO EARLY MON. THE SFC HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF
THE COAST DURING THE DAY AS THE MID/UPPER RIDGING FLATTENS. A
RELATIVELY FLAT (WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN
INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE...MOVING OFFSHORE BY WED MORNING.
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW TRAVELING ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
ON MON/TUE. GFS PRECIP-GENERATION AND GENERAL MOVEMENT CONTINUES
TO BE AGGRESSIVE/FAST VERSUS THE ECMWF. HAVE THEREFORE TRIED TO
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH THE POP FORECAST...LEANING TWD SLIGHTLY
SLOWER TIMING TO THE ONSET OF PRECIP MON NIGHT AND LIMITING
OVERALL COVERAGE ON TUE TO NO HIGHER THAN 40 PERCENT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRAIGHT-FORWARD SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS NEAR
NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COASTS). HIGHS SAT/SUN RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 65 DEGREES FAR NE TO 70
DEGREES SW. AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH WED...THE TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY
IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM SECTOR DEVELOPS. WITH PRECIP
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AT SOME POINT MON NIGHT...INCREASING
CIRRUS DURING THE DAY MON SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S
WEST OF I-95 WITH WARMER TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S EAST OF I-95
(MID-UPPER 60S MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS TUE SHOULD BE IN THE
LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE CHES
BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES WITH HIGHS
ON WED IN THE MID 70S INLAND TO UPPER 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
LOW TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE ON MON/TUE/WED NIGHTS SHOULD ALSO BE
WARM WITH READINGS IN THE 50S (OR ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL HELP TO BRING IN STRATOCU
CLOUDS...WHICH COULD GO MVFR...OVER SE VA/NE NC TAF SITES
THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO MOIST ONSHORE FLOW. NE WINDS MAY BE GUSTY
ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...THE CHANCES FOR MVFR CONDS INCREASE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE PORTIONS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FLAGS NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THU AFTN FOR ERN VA RIVERS
AND NRN CHES BAY...AND THROUGH THU EVENING FOR SRN CHES BAY. AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...
WINDS TURN TO THE NE AND ANOTHER PUSH OF COLD AIR (ALBEIT WEAKER)
IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THU AFTN...WHICH WILL
INCREASE SPEEDS INTO SCA THRESHOLDS DURING THIS TIME. ALSO...THE
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE SEAS TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT
FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH FRI EVENING. PROLONGED SCA FLAGS
ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME BUT
WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED THROUGH SAT DUE TO SEAS STAYING AT OR
ABOVE 5 FT IN PERSISTENT NE/ONSHORE FLOW.

THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS APPEARS TO BE SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN MORNING AS A WEAK LOW PASSING ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND
PUSHES A WEAK BACKDOOR TROUGH AND A COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS THE
WATERS. WIND DIRECTION REMAINS IN AN ONSHORE DIRECTION AND SEAS
COULD BRIEFLY REACH ABOVE 5 FT AGAIN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY 4/16 (AND UNOFFICIAL HIGHS):

RIC...45 (1929) (UNOFFICIAL HIGH 53)
ORF...46 (1935) (47)
SBY...45 (1935) (51)
ECG...52 (1962 & 1952) (50)

RECORD LOWS FOR THU 4/17:

RIC...31 (1949)
ORF...34 (1875)
SBY...26 (2008)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MDZ021>024.
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ012.
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ048-049-
     060>085-087>090-092.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-650-652-
     654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630-631-
     638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...MAM/JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...BMD
CLIMATE...










000
FXUS61 KRNK 162329
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
729 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN FACE OF THE
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
OF THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING
TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOR EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 726 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN ISC GRIDS. FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE
FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

AS OF 300 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

ANOTHER COOL NIGHT AHEAD WITH HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING SOUTHWEST FROM
THE CENTER IN NEW YORK. APPEARS A FREEZE ALREADY HEADLINED IN THE
EAST WILL BE CERTAIN. RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION INTO
THURSDAY WITH THE LOW LVL FLOW WORKING MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST. MODELS
SHOWING SOME SMALL INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS LATE BUT OVERALL A DRY DAY.

NOT EXPECTING MUCH CLOUD COVER OUTSIDE ANY THIN CIRRUS.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE NEAR 20 IN THE VALLEYS THE MID
TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...AND MAYBE AROUND 30 IN
BLF/RICHLANDS PER SE FLOW LATE.

DRY WEDGE THURSDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPS COOL BUT NOT
COLD...WITH HIGHS ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOOKING FOR
READINGS IN THE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT AROUND 60
SOUTHEAST AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WEST OF BLF/MKJ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

A FREEZE WATCH COULD BE CONSIDERED AGAIN FOR PARTS OF THE PIEDMONT
TOMORROW NIGHT...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE OF FREEZING TEMPS IS NOT
EXPECTED BE AS WIDESPREAD AS WED AND THURSDAY MORNING. UNEVENTFUL
PERIOD...WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE DEPARTING...AND WEAK
BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH PASSING BY MAINLY DRY FRIDAY EVENING.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT AND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE AGAIN FOR SUNDAY MORNING...MIN TEMPS MAY DIP AT
LEAST A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE TO START SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

UPPER RIDGING BUILDING BEHIND A CLOSE UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WILL PROVIDE A NICE BOOST IN TEMPS FOR MUCH OF THE LONG
TERM. DESPITE CLOUDS AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES...WARM SW FLOW SHOULD SHOVE +10C H85 AIR OUR WAY
INTO TUESDAY. H8H TEMPS ARE ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLED BY THIS BOUNDARY
WITH SHOWERS PROBABLY CONFINED TO TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY
MORNING. HEIGHTS BUILD QUICKLY BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE IN RESPONSE
TO A CLOSED LOW AND DIGGING NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH THROUGH THE
ROCKIES...WITH THE WARM PATTERN CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 729 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND WHILE WEDGING SOUTHWEST INTO OUR THRU THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NE-E TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY.

SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CIGS THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY MORNING PER
SE FLOW AND INCREASE MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT LYH/DAN.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WIND
FORECAST DURING THE TAF PERIOD.


THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY WHILE ANOTHER
SYSTEM STAYS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASE CLOUDS FRIDAY-SATURDAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST BUT MOST PLACES
SHOULD STAY VFR. VFR FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 100 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

RIVER FLOOD WARNING FOR MINOR FLOODING AT SOUTH BOSTON THROUGH
TOMORROW. REST OF THE RIVERS ARE GOING TO CREST BELOW FLOOD
STAGE...BUT RISES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 1000 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

RECORD LOWS AT BLACKSBURG...BLUEFIELD AND LEWISBURG THIS MORNING

BLACKSBURG TIED THEIRS AT 24...BLUEFIELD TIED THEIRS AT 23 AND
LEWISBURG BROKE THEIRS AT 23.


APRIL 17TH RECORD LOWS

ROANOKE 27F 1980......FORECASTED LOW 31F.
LYNCHBURG 27F 1904....FORECASTED LOW 30F.
DANVILLE 28F 1962.....FORECASTED LOW 30F.
BLUEFIELD 25F 2001....FORECASTED LOW 32F.
BLACKSBURG 20F 1974...FORECASTED LOW 26F.
LEWISBURG 25F 2001....FORECASTED LOW 20F.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     VAZ022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     NCZ003>006-019-020.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF/WP
NEAR TERM...KK/WP
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...KM
AVIATION...KK/WP
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...JC/KM/WP




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 162034
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
434 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
STATES TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BECOME CENTERED FROM NEW ENGLAND TO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINTAINING NORTHEAST
FLOW AND MUCH COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW YORK THIS EVENING WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST AND BECOME CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL RIDGE DOWN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE FA TONIGHT. THIS
COMBINED WITH THE STILL COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE AND CLEAR SKIES
OVERHEAD WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER WIDESPREAD FREEZE EVENT.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S. HAVE ISSUED
A FREEZE WARNING FOR THIS AREA. FARTHER TO THE EAST...THE WINDS
WILL TURN MORE NORTHEAST AND COME OFF THE WATER. THIS WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPERATURES UP SOME WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
ALSO THE NAM AND RUC BOTH INDICATE SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE
AROUND 950 MB TONIGHT WITH THE EAST FLOW DEVELOPING THERE. NOT
SURE THE EXTENT TO WHICH CLOUDS WILL RETURN BUT WENT AHEAD AND
DEVELOPED CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. ON THURSDAY THESE CLOUDS SHOULD SLOWLY SPREAD TO THE
WEST AND NORTH AS MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS BROUGHT IN OFF THE
ATLANTIC. ANOTHER COLD DAY ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
50S. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN WESTERN SECTIONS WHERE
THE CLOUDS WILL BE THE LEAST AND FARTHER AWAY FROM THE OCEAN
INFLUENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ALL AGREE ON A TROUGH DEVELOPING JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS IS DUE TO SOME
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVING ALONG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US. THIS
ENERGY IS NOT WELL HANDLED BY ANY OF THE MODELS SO THERE IS PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY. HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE DRIER NAM BUT WILL
BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE POPS OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME MILDER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GENERALLY FOLLOWED MOS GUIDANCE WHICH KEEPS MOST MINS IN THE 40S
THURSDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY BACK INTO THE 60S. BY LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT ALL MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
AREA WITH ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS
WILL CLEAR THE SKIES ACROSS THE AREA AS IT PUSHES THE TROUGH
FARTHER OFF THE COAST. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY GETTING BACK TO AROUND NORMAL IN THE
LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL
EXTEND INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND OH/TN VALLEYS SAT NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A COASTAL LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS NOW EXPECTED
TO STAY SHUNTED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND THEN TRACK NE
WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH SUN. THE STRETCHED OUT SFC
HIGH AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER RIDGING WILL PASS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION SUN INTO EARLY MON. THE SFC HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF
THE COAST DURING THE DAY AS THE MID/UPPER RIDGING FLATTENS. A
RELATIVELY FLAT (WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN
INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE...MOVING OFFSHORE BY WED MORNING.
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW TRAVELING ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
ON MON/TUE. GFS PRECIP-GENERATION AND GENERAL MOVEMENT CONTINUES
TO BE AGGRESSIVE/FAST VERSUS THE ECMWF. HAVE THEREFORE TRIED TO
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH THE POP FORECAST...LEANING TWD SLIGHTLY
SLOWER TIMING TO THE ONSET OF PRECIP MON NIGHT AND LIMITING
OVERALL COVERAGE ON TUE TO NO HIGHER THAN 40 PERCENT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRAIGHT-FORWARD SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS NEAR
NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COASTS). HIGHS SAT/SUN RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 65 DEGREES FAR NE TO 70
DEGREES SW. AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH WED...THE TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY
IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM SECTOR DEVELOPS. WITH PRECIP
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AT SOME POINT MON NIGHT...INCREASING
CIRRUS DURING THE DAY MON SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S
WEST OF I-95 WITH WARMER TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S EAST OF I-95
(MID-UPPER 60S MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS TUE SHOULD BE IN THE
LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE CHES
BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES WITH HIGHS
ON WED IN THE MID 70S INLAND TO UPPER 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
LOW TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE ON MON/TUE/WED NIGHTS SHOULD ALSO BE
WARM WITH READINGS IN THE 50S (OR ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
GUSTY N WINDS BECOME NE THIS AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY DIMINISH TOWARD
EVENING. WINDS HAVE TENDED TO BE SLIGHTLY BACKED FROM MOS
FORECASTS AND MADE ADJUSTMENTS ACCORDINGLY. NE WINDS MAY BE GUSTY
ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY. STRATOCU CLOUDS WHICH COULD GO MVFR DEVELOP
OVER SE VA/NE NC TAF SITES THURSDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH
ONSHORE FLOW.

OUTLOOK...AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...THE CHANCES FOR MVFR CONDS INCREASE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SE PORTIONS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY BUT THE TREND TOWARD ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FLAGS NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THU AFTN FOR ERN VA RIVERS
AND NRN CHES BAY...AND THROUGH THU EVENING FOR SRN CHES BAY. AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...
WINDS TURN TO THE NE AND ANOTHER PUSH OF COLD AIR (ALBEIT WEAKER)
IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THU AFTN...WHICH WILL
INCREASE SPEEDS INTO SCA THRESHOLDS DURING THIS TIME. ALSO...THE
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE SEAS TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT
FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH FRI EVENING. PROLONGED SCA FLAGS
ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME BUT
WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED THROUGH SAT DUE TO SEAS STAYING AT OR
ABOVE 5 FT IN PERSISTENT NE/ONSHORE FLOW.

THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS APPEARS TO BE SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN MORNING AS A WEAK LOW PASSING ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND
PUSHES A WEAK BACKDOOR TROUGH AND A COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS THE
WATERS. WIND DIRECTION REMAINS IN AN ONSHORE DIRECTION AND SEAS
COULD BRIEFLY REACH ABOVE 5 FT AGAIN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY 4/16:

RIC...45 (1929)
ORF...46 (1935)
SBY...45 (1935)
ECG...52 (1962 & 1952)

RECORD LOWS THU 4/17:

RIC...31 (1949)
ORF...34 (1875)
SBY...26 (2008)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MDZ021>023.
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ012.
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ048-049-
     060>083-085-087>089-092.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-650-652-
     654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630-631-
     638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...BMD
CLIMATE...AKQ










000
FXUS61 KRNK 162002
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
402 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN FACE OF THE
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
OF THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING
TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOR EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

ANOTHER COOL NIGHT AHEAD WITH HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING SOUTHWEST FROM
THE CENTER IN NEW YORK. APPEARS A FREEZE ALREADY HEADLINED IN THE
EAST WILL BE CERTAIN. RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION INTO
THURSDAY WITH THE LOW LVL FLOW WORKING MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST. MODELS
SHOWING SOME SMALL INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS LATE BUT OVERALL A DRY DAY.

NOT EXPECTING MUCH CLOUD COVER OUTSIDE ANY THIN CIRRUS.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE NEAR 20 IN THE VALLEYS THE MID
TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...AND MAYBE AROUND 30 IN
BLF/RICHLANDS PER SE FLOW LATE.

DRY WEDGE THURSDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPS COOL BUT NOT
COLD...WITH HIGHS ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOOKING FOR
READINGS IN THE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT AROUND 60
SOUTHEAST AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WEST OF BLF/MKJ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

A FREEZE WATCH COULD BE CONSIDERED AGAIN FOR PARTS OF THE PIEDMONT
TOMORROW NIGHT...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE OF FREEZING TEMPS IS NOT
EXPECTED BE AS WIDESPREAD AS WED AND THURSDAY MORNING. UNEVENTFUL
PERIOD...WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE DEPARTING...AND WEAK
BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH PASSING BY MAINLY DRY FRIDAY EVENING.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT AND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE AGAIN FOR SUNDAY MORNING...MIN TEMPS MAY DIP AT
LEAST A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE TO START SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

UPPER RIDGING BUILDING BEHIND A CLOSE UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WILL PROVIDE A NICE BOOST IN TEMPS FOR MUCH OF THE LONG
TERM. DESPITE CLOUDS AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES...WARM SW FLOW SHOULD SHOVE +10C H85 AIR OUR WAY
INTO TUESDAY. H8H TEMPS ARE ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLED BY THIS BOUNDARY
WITH SHOWERS PROBABLY CONFINED TO TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY
MORNING. HEIGHTS BUILD QUICKLY BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE IN RESPONSE
TO A CLOSED LOW AND DIGGING NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH THROUGH THE
ROCKIES...WITH THE WARM PATTERN CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND WHILE WEDGING SOUTHWEST INTO OUR THRU THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NE-E TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH LATE
TOMORROW.

SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CIGS THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY MORNING PER
SE FLOW AND INCREASE MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT LYH/DAN.


THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY WHILE ANOTHER
SYSTEM STAYS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASE CLOUDS FRIDAY-SATURDAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST BUT MOST PLACES
SHOULD STAY VFR. VFR FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 100 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

RIVER FLOOD WARNING FOR MINOR FLOODING AT SOUTH BOSTON THROUGH
TOMORROW. REST OF THE RIVERS ARE GOING TO CREST BELOW FLOOD
STAGE...BUT RISES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 1000 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

RECORD LOWS AT BLACKSBURG...BLUEFIELD AND LEWISBURG THIS MORNING

BLACKSBURG TIED THEIRS AT 24...BLUEFIELD TIED THEIRS AT 23 AND
LEWISBURG BROKE THEIRS AT 23.


APRIL 17TH RECORD LOWS

ROANOKE 27F 1980......FORECASTED LOW 31F.
LYNCHBURG 27F 1904....FORECASTED LOW 30F.
DANVILLE 28F 1962.....FORECASTED LOW 30F.
BLUEFIELD 25F 2001....FORECASTED LOW 32F.
BLACKSBURG 20F 1974...FORECASTED LOW 26F.
LEWISBURG 25F 2001....FORECASTED LOW 20F.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     VAZ022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     NCZ003>006-019-020.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...KM
AVIATION...WP
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...JC/KM/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 161956
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
356 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN FACE OF THE
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
OF THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING
TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOR EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

ANOTHER COOL NIGHT AHEAD WITH HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING SOUTHWEST FROM
THE CENTER IN NEW YORK. APPEARS A FREEZE ALREADY HEADLINED IN THE
EAST WILL BE CERTAIN. RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION INTO
THURSDAY WITH THE LOW LVL FLOW WORKING MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST. MODELS
SHOWING SOME SMALL INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS LATE BUT OVERALL A DRY DAY.

NOT EXPECTING MUCH CLOUD COVER OUTSIDE ANY THIN CIRRUS.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE NEAR 20 IN THE VALLEYS THE MID
TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...AND MAYBE AROUND 30 IN
BLF/RICHLANDS PER SE FLOW LATE.

DRY WEDGE THURSDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPS COOL BUT NOT
COLD...WITH HIGHS ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOOKING FOR
READINGS IN THE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT AROUND 60
SOUTHEAST AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WEST OF BLF/MKJ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

UNEVENTFUL PERIOD...WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE DEPARTING...AND
WEAK BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH PASSING BY MAINLY DRY FRIDAY EVENING.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT AND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE AGAIN FOR SUNDAY MORNING...MIN TEMPS MAY DIP AT
LEAST A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE TO START SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

UPPER RIDGING BUILDING BEHIND A CLOSE UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WILL PROVIDE A NICE BOOST IN TEMPS FOR MUCH OF THE LONG
TERM. DESPITE CLOUDS AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES...WARM SW FLOW SHOULD SHOVE +10C H85 AIR OUR WAY
INTO TUESDAY. H8H TEMPS ARE ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLED BY THIS BOUNDARY
WITH SHOWERS PROBABLY CONFINED TO TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY
MORNING. HEIGHTS BUILD QUICKLY BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE IN RESPONSE
TO A CLOSED LOW AND DIGGING NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH THROUGH THE
ROCKIES...WITH THE WARM PATTERN CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND WHILE WEDGING SOUTHWEST INTO OUR THRU THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NE-E TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH LATE
TOMORROW.

SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CIGS THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY MORNING PER
SE FLOW AND INCREASE MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT LYH/DAN.


THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY WHILE ANOTHER
SYSTEM STAYS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASE CLOUDS FRIDAY-SATURDAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST BUT MOST PLACES
SHOULD STAY VFR. VFR FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 100 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

RIVER FLOOD WARNING FOR MINOR FLOODING AT SOUTH BOSTON THROUGH
TOMORROW. REST OF THE RIVERS ARE GOING TO CREST BELOW FLOOD
STAGE...BUT RISES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 1000 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

RECORD LOWS AT BLACKSBURG...BLUEFIELD AND LEWISBURG THIS MORNING

BLACKSBURG TIED THEIRS AT 24...BLUEFIELD TIED THEIRS AT 23 AND
LEWISBURG BROKE THEIRS AT 23.


APRIL 17TH RECORD LOWS

ROANOKE 27F 1980......FORECASTED LOW 31F.
LYNCHBURG 27F 1904....FORECASTED LOW 30F.
DANVILLE 28F 1962.....FORECASTED LOW 30F.
BLUEFIELD 25F 2001....FORECASTED LOW 32F.
BLACKSBURG 20F 1974...FORECASTED LOW 26F.
LEWISBURG 25F 2001....FORECASTED LOW 20F.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     VAZ022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     NCZ003>006-019-020.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...KM
AVIATION...WP
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...JC/KM/WP




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 161937
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
337 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
STATES TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BECOME CENTERED FROM NEW ENGLAND TO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINTAINING NORTHEAST
FLOW AND MUCH COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW YORK THIS EVENING WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST AND BE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY.
THE HIGH WILL RIDGE DOWN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS TONIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
STILL COLD AIR MASS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
WIDESPREAD FREEZE EVENT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S
AND LOW 30S. HAVE ISSUES A FREEZE WARNING FOR THIS AREA. FARTHER
TO THE EAST THE WINDS WILL TURN MORE NORTHEAST AND COME OFF THE
WATER. THIS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES UP SOME WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. ALSO THE NAM AND RUC BOTH INDICATE SOME
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AROUND 950 MB TONIGHT WITH THE EAST FLOW
DEVELOPING THERE. NOT SURE HOW MUCH CLOUDS WILL RETURN BUT DID
DEVELOP CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
ON THURSDAY THESE CLOUDS SLOWLY SPREAD TO THE WEST AND NORTH AS
MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS BROUGHT IN OFF THE ATLANTIC. ANOTHER
COLL DAY ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN WESTERN SECTIONS WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL BE
THE LEAST AND FARTHER AWAY FROM THE OCEAN INFLUENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ALL AGREE ON TROUGHING DEVELOPING JUST OF THE COAST THURSDAY
NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS IS DUE TO SOME SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY MOVING ALONG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US. THIS ENERGY IS NOT
WELL HANDLED BY ANY OF THE MODELS SO WILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY. HAVE
LEANED MORE TOWARD THE DRIER NAM BUT WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE
POPS OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME
MILDER THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY FOLLOWED MOS GUIDANCE WHICH
KEEPS MOST MINS IN THE 40S THURSDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY BACK
INTO THE 60S. BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ALL MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WITH ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CLEAR THE SKIES ACROSS THE AREA AS IT
PUSHES THE TROUGH FARTHER OFF THE COAST. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 40S WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY GETTING BACK TO
AROUND NORMAL IN THE LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON A STALLED
BOUNDARY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRI NIGHT. THE LOW SHOULD TRACK NE
WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON SAT. THIS FEATURE MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO FAR SE VA/NE NC DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SWING
INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT AND SKIRT ACROSS NRN VA ON SAT. A
WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND MAY BRING A
BRIEF ROUND OF SHOWERS TO FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE FA (INCLUDING THE
MD/VA EASTERN SHORE) SAT AFTN/EARLY EVENING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE
AND DISSIPATING. THE SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW SAT
NIGHT...BUT THIS SHOULD OCCUR OVER NEW ENGLAND AND HAVE VERY LITTLE
IMPACT TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION SUN...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE BY SUN EVENING AS A RELATIVELY
FLAT (WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN INTO THE
AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SUBSEQUENT SFC
LOW TRAVELING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA ON MON/TUE. GFS PRECIP-GENERATION AND
GENERAL MOVEMENT IS A BIT AGGRESSIVE VERSUS THE ECMWF...THEREFORE
TRIED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH THE POP FORECAST AND LIMITED
COVERAGE TO NO HIGHER THAN 40 PERCENT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRAIGHT-FORWARD SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS NEAR
NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COASTS). HIGHS SAT/SUN RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 65 DEGREES FAR NE TO 70
DEGREES SW. AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH TUE...THE TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY
IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM SECTOR DEVELOPS. WITH PRECIP
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA ON MON...INCREASING CIRRUS SHOULD KEEP
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S WEST OF I-95 WITH WARMER TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 70S EAST OF I-95 (MID-UPPER 60S MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS
TUE SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE CHES BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS. LOW TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE ON
MON/TUE NIGHT SHOULD ALSO BE WARM WITH READINGS IN THE 50S (OR ABOUT
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GUSTY
N WINDS BECOME NE THIS AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY DIMINISH TOWARD
EVENING. WINDS HAVE TENDED TO BE SLIGHTLY BACKED FROM MOS FORECASTS
AND MADE ADJUSTMENTS ACCORDINGLY. NE WINDS MAY BE GUSTY ONCE AGAIN
THURSDAY. STRATOCU CLOUDS WHICH COULD GO MVFR DEVELOP OVER SE
SECTIONS THURSDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH ONSHORE FLOW.

OUTLOOK...AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...THE CHANCES FOR MVFR CONDS INCREASE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SE PORTIONS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY BUT THE TREND TOWARD ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...REMAINING GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CONVERTED INTO SCA
FLAGS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WINDS TURN TO THE
NE AND RESULT IN PERSISTENT SEAS OF 5 FT OR HIGHER. ANOTHER BUT
WEAKER PUSH OF COLD AIR IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY...WHICH WILL INCREASE WINDS INTO SCA THRESHOLDS
DURING THIS TIME. IT IS LIKELY THAT SCA CONDITIONS DUE TO SEAS
ABOVE 5 FT WILL CONTINUE BEYOND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WILL HAVE
A FINAL DECISION MADE REGARDING HEADLINES BY THE AFTN FORECAST
PACKAGE (ISSUED BY 4 PM TODAY).

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HI PRES SLIDES NE ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TNGT INTO FRI...AS A WEAK CSTL TROF
DEVELOPS OFF THE SE AND MID ATLC CST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF NE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS THRU THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY 4/16:

RIC...45 (1929)
ORF...46 (1935)
SBY...45 (1935)
ECG...52 (1962 & 1952)

RECORD LOWS THU 4/17:

RIC...31 (1949)
ORF...34 (1875)
SBY...26 (2008)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MDZ021>023.
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ012.
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ048-049-
     060>083-085-087>089-092.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-650-652-
     654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630-631-
     638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...BMD/TMG
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KLWX 161918
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
318 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD DURING MIDWEEK...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE
LATE IN THE WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT MAY
AFFECT THE AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...COLD AIR MASS/NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE HELD
TEMPERATURES DOWN ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC TODAY. THIS WILL PAVE THE
WAY FOR ANOTHER COLD NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
INTO NEW ENGLAND. CLEAR SKIES IN THE EVENING WILL PROMOTE DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY INCREASE OVERNIGHT...BUT
LIKELY NOT ENOUGH TO PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING NEAR OR
BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT. FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE WHERE THE GROWING SEASON IS OFFICIALLY UNDERWAY.
TEMPERATURES MAY BE A LITTLE MORE MARGINAL NEAR THE BAY IN SOUTHERN
MARYLAND BUT INTERIOR PORTIONS SHOULD BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING EVEN
IF THERE/S STILL A LIGHT WIND.

AFTER THE COLD START THURSDAY...MODIFIED AIR MASS AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES SHOULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE 50S. BUT
WITH A COLD WEDGE AND EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE CAROLINAS WILL
INTERACT WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BETWEEN THE EAST
COAST AND BERMUDA TO PRODUCE A MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THURSDAY EVENING BUT THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

AS THE HIGH PRESSURE PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL PIVOT ACROSS
EAST-CENTRAL CANADA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT BUT SHOULD BE A DRY
FRONT AS THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN.

AS THE SURFACE FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND EAST SATURDAY MORNING...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
SATURDAY BUT SHOULD DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TO THE AREA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RIDGING ERODES BY MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. RIDGING THEN
RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
LEADING TO A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THURSDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE VALID TAF PERIOD...WITH WINDS
VEERING FROM NORTH TO EAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS MAY
GUST 15 TO 20 KNOTS THURSDAY NIGHT NEAR MTN...BWI AND DCA WITH A
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
SATURDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND GUST 20 TO 30 KNOTS. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH
OF THE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. WIND GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH
LATE...BUT MAY INCREASE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS VEER TO THE
EAST. SCA IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND ACROSS THE WATERS ON THURSDAY.

NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST 20 TO 30 KNOTS. SUB-SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVELS REMAIN 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL BUT AS WINDS DIMINISH
AND THEN VEER TO THE EAST NEGATIVE DEPARTURES WILL CONTINUE TO
EASE TONIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
...NEAR RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING...

TWO OF THE THREE MAJOR METRO AREA AIRPORTS...BWI AND IAD...GOT CLOSE
TO THEIR DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING.

AT REAGAN NATIONAL AIRPORT...DCA...A MORNING LOW OF 34F WAS WELL
ABOVE THE RECORD OF 29F SET ON THIS DATE IN 1928.

AT BALTIMORE-WASHINGTON INTERNATIONAL...BWI...A MORNING LOW TODAY OF
31F WAS JUST ONE DEGREE OFF THE RECORD LOW FOR THE DATE SET IN 1962.

AT DULLES...IAD...THE MIN OF 30F THIS MORNING WAS TWO DEGREES SHY OF
THE DAILY RECORD LOW OF 28F SET ON THIS DATE IN 1981.

REGARDING RECORD LOW DAILY MAX TEMPERATURES FOR APRIL 16...AS OF 3PM
TODAY...DULLES IS STILL TIED WITH ITS DAILY RECORD LOW-MAX OF 46F
BUT WITH SEVERAL HOURS LEFT OF SUN WILL LIKELY RISE ABOVE 46F. BOTH
BWI AND DCA HAVE RISEN ABOVE THEIR RESPECTIVE DAILY RECORD LOW-MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR APRIL 16.

RECORD LOWS FOR APRIL 17...

BWI...26F IN 1962
DCA...26F IN 1875
IAD...27F IN 1983

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MDZ004>007-
     009>011-013-014-016>018.
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ036>040-
     042-050>057-501-502.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ531>534-537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ530>533-538>541.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ536-
     542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...KLW
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...BPP/KLW/DFH
MARINE...BPP/KLW/DFH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BPP
CLIMATE...SMZ








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 161818
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
218 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AND
SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BECOME CENTERED FROM NEW ENGLAND TO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINTAINING NORTHEAST
FLOW AND MUCH COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM MI SOUTH
INTO NORTHERN KY...AND BEGINNING TO RIDGE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS
EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS REMAIN GUSTY...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
COAST DUE TO RAPID PRESSURE RISES AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION BUT
WIND SPEEDS HAVE DROPPED OFF SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST FEW HRS. SKIES
HAVE GENLY CLEARED EXCEPT ACRS HAMPTON ROADS AND NE NC WHERE BKN
CLOUD COVER PERSISTS THROUGH MID MORNING.  PERHAPS EVEN MORE
IMPRESSIVE WILL BE HOW COLD TODAY`S HIGHS WILL BE EVEN WITH AMPLE
SUNSHINE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST GUIDANCE VALUES OF THE
MID-UPPER 40S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO THE LOWER 50S OVER
INTERIOR SOUTHERN VA SHOULD BE ABOUT AS WARM AS IT WILL GET (THIS
IS AROUND 20 F BELOW AVG). HAVE INCLUDED A CLIMATE SECTION AS THIS
MAY RIVAL RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPS AT NORFOLK.


HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE. WILL LIKELY NEED ANOTHER FREEZE
WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT/THU MORNING. WITH SW FLOW
ALOFT AND THE SFC HIGH BECOMING CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT...THERE WILL TEND TO BE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND CLOUD COVER FROM THE SE. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACRS SE VA AND NE NC OVERNIGHT SO TEMPS SHOULD
REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING THERE (LOWS IN UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S)...WITH
A FREEZE MORE PROBABLE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA WHERE
SKIES GENLY STAY MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS DECOUPLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE TREND THAT STARTS TONIGHT/EARLY THU MORNING LOOKS TO CONTINUE
ON THU. SETUP SUPPORTS A STRONG INVERSION ABOVE 900 MB WHICH WILL
TEND TO TRAP ANY DEVELOPING MARINE LAYER CLOUDINESS. NOT MUCH
CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP GIVEN A VERY DRY AIRMASS ABOVE THE
INVERSION...BUT DO THINK SKIES WILL END UP MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST
OF THE CWA FROM I-95 EAST. THIS WILL KEEP HIGHS WELL BELOW
AVG...MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...WITH UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60
F OVER THE PIEDMONT. A DEEPER LAYER OF MOISTURE FROM 950 TO ABOUT
800 MB WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO ALL AREAS THU NIGHT/FRI AS A
COASTAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH CLOSER TO THE COAST. WILL CARRY A
SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) POPS THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI. WHILE THE OVERALL
AIRMASS WARMS QUITE A BIT ON FRI...HAVE SIDED ON COOLER EDGE OF
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS DUE TO CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT NE FLOW. LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 40S THU NIGHT WITH HIGHS FRI GENLY 55-60 F.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON A STALLED
BOUNDARY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRI NIGHT. THE LOW SHOULD TRACK NE
WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON SAT. THIS FEATURE MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO FAR SE VA/NE NC DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SWING
INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT AND SKIRT ACROSS NRN VA ON SAT. A
WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND MAY BRING A
BRIEF ROUND OF SHOWERS TO FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE FA (INCLUDING THE
MD/VA EASTERN SHORE) SAT AFTN/EARLY EVENING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE
AND DISSIPATING. THE SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW SAT
NIGHT...BUT THIS SHOULD OCCUR OVER NEW ENGLAND AND HAVE VERY LITTLE
IMPACT TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION SUN...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE BY SUN EVENING AS A RELATIVELY
FLAT (WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN INTO THE
AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SUBSEQUENT SFC
LOW TRAVELING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA ON MON/TUE. GFS PRECIP-GENERATION AND
GENERAL MOVEMENT IS A BIT AGGRESSIVE VERSUS THE ECMWF...THEREFORE
TRIED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH THE POP FORECAST AND LIMITED
COVERAGE TO NO HIGHER THAN 40 PERCENT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRAIGHT-FORWARD SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS NEAR
NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COASTS). HIGHS SAT/SUN RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 65 DEGREES FAR NE TO 70
DEGREES SW. AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH TUE...THE TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY
IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM SECTOR DEVELOPS. WITH PRECIP
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA ON MON...INCREASING CIRRUS SHOULD KEEP
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S WEST OF I-95 WITH WARMER TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 70S EAST OF I-95 (MID-UPPER 60S MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS
TUE SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE CHES BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS. LOW TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE ON
MON/TUE NIGHT SHOULD ALSO BE WARM WITH READINGS IN THE 50S (OR ABOUT
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GUSTY
N WINDS BECOME NE THIS AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY DIMINISH TOWARD
EVENING. WINDS HAVE TENDED TO BE SLIGHTLY BACKED FROM MOS FORECASTS
AND MADE ADJUSTMENTS ACCORDINGLY. NE WINDS MAY BE GUSTY ONCE AGAIN
THURSDAY. STRATOCU CLOUDS WHICH COULD GO MVFR DEVELOP OVER SE
SECTIONS THURSDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH ONSHORE FLOW.

OUTLOOK...AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...THE CHANCES FOR MVFR CONDS INCREASE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SE PORTIONS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY BUT THE TREND TOWARD ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...REMAINING GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CONVERTED INTO SCA
FLAGS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WINDS TURN TO THE
NE AND RESULT IN PERSISTENT SEAS OF 5 FT OR HIGHER. ANOTHER BUT
WEAKER PUSH OF COLD AIR IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY...WHICH WILL INCREASE WINDS INTO SCA THRESHOLDS
DURING THIS TIME. IT IS LIKELY THAT SCA CONDITIONS DUE TO SEAS
ABOVE 5 FT WILL CONTINUE BEYOND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WILL HAVE
A FINAL DECISION MADE REGARDING HEADLINES BY THE AFTN FORECAST
PACKAGE (ISSUED BY 4 PM TODAY).

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HI PRES SLIDES NE ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TNGT INTO FRI...AS A WEAK CSTL TROF
DEVELOPS OFF THE SE AND MID ATLC CST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF NE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS THRU THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY 4/16:

RIC...45 (1929)
ORF...46 (1935)
SBY...45 (1935)
ECG...52 (1962 & 1952)

RECORD LOWS THU 4/17:

RIC...31 (1949)
ORF...34 (1875)
SBY...26 (2008)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>634-
     638-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/JAB
SHORT TERM...LKB/LSA
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...BMD/TMG
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KRNK 161724
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
124 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN FACE OF THE
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
OF THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING
TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOR EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST TODAY FROM ERN OHIO TO NY BUT
WEDGE SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA. THE FEW SC OVER THE MTNS OF WV WILL
CLEAR OUT SOON WITH EVERYONE EXPERIENCING SUNNY SKIES. NOT MUCH
CHANGE TO FORECAST HIGH TEMPS WHICH WILL RUN ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOW
50S AREAWIDE.

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT BY SUNSET AND...WHEN COMBINED WITH
CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES...WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER NIGHT OF STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE TO AGAIN FALL
BELOW FREEZING. IN ADDITION...THE LACK OF ATMOSPHERIC MIXING WILL
ALSO PROMOTE AREAS OF FROST. WILL THEREFORE ISSUE ANOTHER FREEZE
WARNING FOR AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO THE LOW
30S MOST LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW VALLEY BOTTOMS FALLING INTO THE
UPPER TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD AS A LARGE
CANADIAN HIGH DRIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. THIS WILL SET
UP A WEDGE PATTERN...INITIALLY DRY. 850MB TEMPS REBOUND TOWARD 0C
THU FROM THE VERY COLD -12C CURRENTLY IN PLACE...BUT THEN HOVER IN
THE -2C TO 4C RANGE NORTH-SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY AS NE FLOW FROM THE
PARENT SFC HIGH SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION THUS RETARDING ANY
APPRECIABLE WARMING. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY THU...HELPING
TO WARM TEMPS FROM WIDESPREAD BELOW FREEZING TEMPS AGAIN DURING THE
EARLY MORNING. GIVEN THE PATTERN...HAVE FAVORED THE COLDER ECMWF MOS
GUIDANCE.

FRIDAY...THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE...WHICH BECOMES A MORE
APPRECIABLE DIVERGENCE BY SATURDAY...ON THE TRACK/INTENSITY OF A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND THE TRACK/INTENSITY/DEVELOPMENT OF A
SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. HPC MODEL
PREFERENCE IS WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH FAVORS DEVELOPMENT OF
A FAIRLY DEEP CLOSED LOW ALONG THE NE FL/GA/SC COAST. THE GFS
FAVORS THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE...AND AS A RESULT SHOWS
ANOTHER FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY WITH UPSLOPE -SHRA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS. WHILE
THE ECMWF DOES NOT DISCOUNT THIS TROUGH...IT SHOWS LITTLE PCPN AND
LITTLE APPRECIABLE COLD ADVECTION...FOCUSING MORE ENERGY INTO THE SE
U.S. SYSTEM...HENCE INDICATING MORE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS OUR CWA. THE
NAM AND CANADIAN OFFER SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS AS WELL...BOTH
SHOWING GREATER POTENTIAL FOR -SHRA FURTHER NORTH WITH THE SOUTHERN
SYSTEM AND THE NAM HAVING MORE FROM BOTH. AT ANY RATE...AT LEAST
THROUGH SAT AND UNTIL THE MODELS CAN COME TO BETTER CONSENSUS...HAVE
KEPT THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES DRY...BUT DID INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE NC
PIEDMONT TO 14 PERCENT LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF. FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...HAVE SHOWN SLIGHT CHC POPS INTO GREENBRIER/SUMMERS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH NW FLOW SHORT WAVE...DEPICTED TO SOME EXTENT BY ALL
MODELS. USED A ECMWF/GFS BLEND FOR TEMPS FRI-SAT...BUT HAVE LEANED
TOWARD THE COLDER ECMWF MOS AS NOTED ABOVE WITH PREVAILING NE FLOW
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND/OR COLDER NW FLOW SAT BEHIND SHORT WAVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

MUCH OF WHAT OCCURS...AT LEAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS
PERIOD...WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THE SE U.S. UPPER LOW. BY
MON...THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO NO LONGER INFLUENCE
THE AREA. OVERALL...MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED...BUT WILL NEED
TO WATCH SE-E PARTS OF THE CWA FOR CLOUD COVER AND COOL...MARITIME
EASTERLY FLOW AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. A
WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE TOP OF THE SE UPPER LOW
PROMISING TO CONTINUE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT AGAIN LIKELY TEMPERED BY THE EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE
BETWEEN THE LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTHEAST. MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO BE QUITE SIGNIFICANT WITH
RESPECT TO THE NEXT SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING ANOTHER AREA OF CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE...ALBEIT WEAKER...INTO THE SE U.S. CLOSED LOW...WHILE THE
GFS BRINGS MORE OF AN OPEN TROUGH TOWARD THE REGION. AT ANY
RATE...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN BY MON-TUE OF NEXT WEEK.
INSTABILITY APPEARS MARGINAL AT THIS POINT...ESPECIALLY PER ECMWF
SOLUTION. THUS...HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO CURRENT LONG TERM GRIDS
WITH LOW CHC POPS AND NO MENTION OF TSRA.

 SURFACE HIGH FILLING IN BEHIND FRIDAY`S WEAK BOUNDARY
EVENTUALLY COVERS NEW ENGLAND AND THE ENTIRE MIDDLE ATLANTIC TO
CLOSE THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...THIS HIGH MAY EVENTUALLY PARK OVER NEW
ENGLAND SETTING UP ANOTHER DRY WEDGE PER THE ECMWF. THUS...SUNDAY
MAY BE COLDER THAN SATURDAY. THE GFS HAS ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH JUST
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...WITH ELIMINATES THE EASTERLY COMPONENT/DRY
WEDGE...GIVING MORE OF A SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND A WARMER SUNDAY. WILL
GO BETWEEN THE MEX AND ECMWF MOS FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY. THE PATTERN
REMAINS DRY AND BENIGN...UNTIL NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT...WHEN BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON A FRONT WITH RAIN SHOWERS. WENT WITH CHC POPS
AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH THE MODEL AGREEMENT AT THIS
TIMERANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND WHILE WEDGING SOUTHWEST INTO OUR THRU THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NE-E TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH LATE
TOMORROW.

SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CIGS THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY MORNING PER
SE FLOW AND INCREASE MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT LYH/DAN.


THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY WHILE ANOTHER
SYSTEM STAYS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASE CLOUDS FRIDAY-SATURDAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST BUT MOST PLACES
SHOULD STAY VFR. VFR FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 100 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

RIVER FLOOD WARNING FOR MINOR FLOODING AT SOUTH BOSTON THROUGH
TOMORROW. REST OF THE RIVERS ARE GOING TO CREST BELOW FLOOD
STAGE...BUT RISES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE.



&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 1000 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

RECORD LOWS AT BLACKSBURG...BLUEFIELD AND LEWISBURG THIS MORNING

BLACKSBURG TIED THEIRS AT 24...BLUEFIELD TIED THEIRS AT 23 AND
LEWISBURG BROKE THEIRS AT 23.


APRIL 17TH RECORD LOWS

ROANOKE 27F 1980......FORECASTED LOW 31F.
LYNCHBURG 27F 1904....FORECASTED LOW 30F.
DANVILLE 28F 1962.....FORECASTED LOW 30F.
BLUEFIELD 25F 2001....FORECASTED LOW 32F.
BLACKSBURG 20F 1974...FORECASTED LOW 26F.
LEWISBURG 25F 2001....FORECASTED LOW 20F.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     VAZ022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     NCZ003>006-019-020.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF/WP
NEAR TERM...NF/WP
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...KM
AVIATION...WP
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...JC/KM/WP




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 161700
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
100 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AND
SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BECOME CENTERED FROM NEW ENGLAND TO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINTAINING NORTHEAST
FLOW AND MUCH COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM MI SOUTH
INTO NORTHERN KY...AND BEGINNING TO RIDGE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS
EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS REMAIN GUSTY...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
COAST DUE TO RAPID PRESSURE RISES AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION BUT
WIND SPEEDS HAVE DROPPED OFF SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST FEW HRS. SKIES
HAVE GENLY CLEARED EXCEPT ACRS HAMPTON ROADS AND NE NC WHERE BKN
CLOUD COVER PERSISTS THROUGH MID MORNING.  PERHAPS EVEN MORE
IMPRESSIVE WILL BE HOW COLD TODAY`S HIGHS WILL BE EVEN WITH AMPLE
SUNSHINE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST GUIDANCE VALUES OF THE
MID-UPPER 40S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO THE LOWER 50S OVER
INTERIOR SOUTHERN VA SHOULD BE ABOUT AS WARM AS IT WILL GET (THIS
IS AROUND 20 F BELOW AVG). HAVE INCLUDED A CLIMATE SECTION AS THIS
MAY RIVAL RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPS AT NORFOLK.


HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE. WILL LIKELY NEED ANOTHER FREEZE
WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT/THU MORNING. WITH SW FLOW
ALOFT AND THE SFC HIGH BECOMING CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT...THERE WILL TEND TO BE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND CLOUD COVER FROM THE SE. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACRS SE VA AND NE NC OVERNIGHT SO TEMPS SHOULD
REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING THERE (LOWS IN UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S)...WITH
A FREEZE MORE PROBABLE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA WHERE
SKIES GENLY STAY MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS DECOUPLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE TREND THAT STARTS TONIGHT/EARLY THU MORNING LOOKS TO CONTINUE
ON THU. SETUP SUPPORTS A STRONG INVERSION ABOVE 900 MB WHICH WILL
TEND TO TRAP ANY DEVELOPING MARINE LAYER CLOUDINESS. NOT MUCH
CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP GIVEN A VERY DRY AIRMASS ABOVE THE
INVERSION...BUT DO THINK SKIES WILL END UP MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST
OF THE CWA FROM I-95 EAST. THIS WILL KEEP HIGHS WELL BELOW
AVG...MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...WITH UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60
F OVER THE PIEDMONT. A DEEPER LAYER OF MOISTURE FROM 950 TO ABOUT
800 MB WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO ALL AREAS THU NIGHT/FRI AS A
COASTAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH CLOSER TO THE COAST. WILL CARRY A
SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) POPS THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI. WHILE THE OVERALL
AIRMASS WARMS QUITE A BIT ON FRI...HAVE SIDED ON COOLER EDGE OF
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS DUE TO CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT NE FLOW. LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 40S THU NIGHT WITH HIGHS FRI GENLY 55-60 F.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON A STALLED
BOUNDARY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRI NIGHT. THE LOW SHOULD TRACK NE
WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON SAT. THIS FEATURE MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO FAR SE VA/NE NC DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SWING
INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT AND SKIRT ACROSS NRN VA ON SAT. A
WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND MAY BRING A
BRIEF ROUND OF SHOWERS TO FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE FA (INCLUDING THE
MD/VA EASTERN SHORE) SAT AFTN/EARLY EVENING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE
AND DISSIPATING. THE SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW SAT
NIGHT...BUT THIS SHOULD OCCUR OVER NEW ENGLAND AND HAVE VERY LITTLE
IMPACT TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION SUN...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE BY SUN EVENING AS A RELATIVELY
FLAT (WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN INTO THE
AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SUBSEQUENT SFC
LOW TRAVELING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA ON MON/TUE. GFS PRECIP-GENERATION AND
GENERAL MOVEMENT IS A BIT AGGRESSIVE VERSUS THE ECMWF...THEREFORE
TRIED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH THE POP FORECAST AND LIMITED
COVERAGE TO NO HIGHER THAN 40 PERCENT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRAIGHT-FORWARD SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS NEAR
NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COASTS). HIGHS SAT/SUN RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 65 DEGREES FAR NE TO 70
DEGREES SW. AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH TUE...THE TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY
IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM SECTOR DEVELOPS. WITH PRECIP
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA ON MON...INCREASING CIRRUS SHOULD KEEP
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S WEST OF I-95 WITH WARMER TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 70S EAST OF I-95 (MID-UPPER 60S MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS
TUE SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE CHES BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS. LOW TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE ON
MON/TUE NIGHT SHOULD ALSO BE WARM WITH READINGS IN THE 50S (OR ABOUT
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. N WINDS
GUSTING TO OVER 20 KNOTS WILL BECOME NE AND DIMINISH OVR MOST OF
THE AREA LATER THIS AFTN INTO EARLY THIS EVENG...AS THE HI BLDS
OVR THE REGION THEN SHIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND. NE WINDS WILL REMAIN
AT 10 TO 15 KT AT ORF AND ECG TNGT THRU THU...AS THE HI
STRENGTHENS OVR NRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. NE OR
E FLO WILL PUSH SC DECK OF CLOUDS BACK INTO THE AREA LATE WED NGT
THRU THU.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...REMAINING GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CONVERTED INTO SCA
FLAGS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WINDS TURN TO THE
NE AND RESULT IN PERSISTENT SEAS OF 5 FT OR HIGHER. ANOTHER BUT
WEAKER PUSH OF COLD AIR IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY...WHICH WILL INCREASE WINDS INTO SCA THRESHOLDS
DURING THIS TIME. IT IS LIKELY THAT SCA CONDITIONS DUE TO SEAS
ABOVE 5 FT WILL CONTINUE BEYOND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WILL HAVE
A FINAL DECISION MADE REGARDING HEADLINES BY THE AFTN FORECAST
PACKAGE (ISSUED BY 4 PM TODAY).

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HI PRES SLIDES NE ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TNGT INTO FRI...AS A WEAK CSTL TROF
DEVELOPS OFF THE SE AND MID ATLC CST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF NE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS THRU THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY 4/16:

RIC...45 (1929)
ORF...46 (1935)
SBY...45 (1935)
ECG...52 (1962 & 1952)

RECORD LOWS THU 4/17:

RIC...31 (1949)
ORF...34 (1875)
SBY...26 (2008)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>634-
     638-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/JAB
SHORT TERM...LKB/LSA
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...TMG/LSA
MARINE...BMD/TMG
CLIMATE...AKQ











000
FXUS61 KLWX 161431
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1031 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD DURING MIDWEEK...BEFORE MOVE OFFSHORE
LATE IN THE WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT THE AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS THIS
MORNING SHOULD DIMINISH INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT
RELAXES. ASIDE FROM A FEW CIRRUS THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
TODAY BUT DESPITE THE SUNSHINE MAXIMA WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE
THE 50 DEGREE MARK GIVEN THE COLD AIR MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE MODERATED FROM NELY FLOW COMING OFF MID
40S OCEAN TEMPS AND LOW 50S BAY TEMPS. LEFT FREEZE WARNING DECISION
TO DAY SHIFT SINCE MOST GUIDANCE HAS ZONES IN THE LOW 30S. PIEDMONT
AND CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AREAS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
SUBFREEZING TEMPS TONIGHT.

LOW CLOUDS SPREAD EAST INTO SRN MD THURSDAY AS THE ONSHORE FLOW
SATURATES. MAX TEMPS GENERALLY INCREASE NE TO SW BASED ON ONSHORE
FLOW...MID 50S FOR NERN MD TO UPR 50S/LOW 60S IN CNTRL SHEN VLY/KCHO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRES OVR NEW ENGLAND WL BE TRACKING SLOWLY NE THU NGT AND
FRI...LVG THE MID ATLC IN A WEDGING SITUATION WHICH IS XPCTD TO
LEAD TO A PD OF CAD CONDITIONS - NERLY LO LVL WINDS WHICH WL
CREATE A LOW CLD DECK OVR THE RGN E OF THE MTNS. THE SUNNIEST
PLACE IN THE FCST AREA FRI WL LKLY BE W OF THE BLUE RDG. NO PCPN
IS XPCTD - IF ANYTHING WERE TO DVLP IT WOULD BE DZ. LOWS THU NGT
IN THE 30S/L40S. HIGHS FRI 55-60.

ON SAT AN UPR LVL TROF WL TRACK N OF THE AREA...BUT WL DRAG A CD
FNT THRU THE RGN. SOMETIMES CAD ENVIRONMENTS OF LO CLDS CAN HANG
ARND IN THE MID ATLC UP TO 4 DAYS...BUT THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO BE
THE CASE THIS TIME...AS CD FOPA IS PRBLY THE #1 WAY TO DISLODGE
CAD. BUT W/ THIS WL ALSO COME THE PSBLTY OF RA. HIGHS SAT IN THE
M60S.

SUN LOOKING TO BE THE BETTER DAY OF THE WKND FOR OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES - SKIES SHOULD CLR AS HIGH PRES RETURNS. LOWS SAT NGT
U30S/L40S. HIGHS IN THE LM60S.

TEMPS XPCTD TO SLOWLY CLIMB DURG THE 1ST PART OF THE NEW WK W/ UPR
LVL FLOW MORE OR LESS ZNL. BY TUE HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE BACK ABV 70
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR THROUGH TAF PERIOD AND GUSTY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. ONSHORE FLOW FROM
COLD AIR DAMMING RIDGE TONIGHT...THURSDAY (CONTINUING INTO
SATURDAY).

A CAD SET UP IN XPCTD THU NGT/FRI. THIS WOULD LKLY LEAD TO CIGS IN
THE MVFR RNG. A CD FNT IS XPCTD TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SAT WHICH
COULD PSBLY SPAWN RA/RW. VFR CONDS XPCTD SUN AS HIGH PRES RETURNS.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE ALLOWED GALES TO EXPIRE AS WIND GUSTS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 30
KT...BUT SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO LAST WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE GRADIENT RELAXES ENOUGH. FLOW BECOMES NELY THIS
EVENING...INCREASING TO 20 KT FOR LOWER SRN MD WATERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT (WHEN AN SCA GOES INTO EFFECT)...THEN EXPANDING UP THE
REST OF THE MD BAY BEFORE SUNRISE. ALL BUT THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC
IN AN SCA FOR THE DAY THURSDAY WITH NELY FLOW GUSTING AROUND 20
KT.


SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF
THE WATERS SAT NIGHT IN A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
LOW PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NW WINDS HV CAUSED WATER LEVELS IN THE CHES BAY TO DROP TO
2 FT OR MORE FT BLO NRML. TIDAL BLOWOUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TODAY. MWS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS. WATER LVLS SHOULD
BEGIN TO RECOVER THIS AFTN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A VERY COLD AIRMASS FOR MID APRIL IS CAUSING TEMPS TO APPROACH
RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING. BELOW IS A TABLE OF RECORD
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR APRIL 16 ALONG WITH THE 3 AM TEMPS.

SITE...RECORD LOW TEMP   3 AM WED TEMP
DCA....29 F IN 1928      35
BWI....30 F IN 1962      33
IAD....28 F IN 1981      32

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     DCZ001.
MD...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     MDZ004>007-009>011-013-014-016>018.
VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     VAZ036>040-042-050>057-501-502.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ531>534-537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ530>533-538>541.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ530-
     535-536-538-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ536-
     542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$
BPP/BAJ/WOODY!







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 161423
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1023 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AND
SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BECOME CENTERED FROM NEW ENGLAND TO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINTAINING NORTHEAST
FLOW AND MUCH COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM MI SOUTH
INTO NORTHERN KY...AND BEGINNING TO RIDGE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS
EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS REMAIN GUSTY...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
COAST DUE TO RAPID PRESSURE RISES AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION BUT
WIND SPEEDS HAVE DROPPED OFF SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST FEW HRS. SKIES
HAVE GENLY CLEARED EXCEPT ACRS HAMPTON ROADS AND NE NC WHERE BKN
CLOUD COVER PERSISTS THROUGH MID MORNING.  PERHAPS EVEN MORE
IMPRESSIVE WILL BE HOW COLD TODAY`S HIGHS WILL BE EVEN WITH AMPLE
SUNSHINE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST GUIDANCE VALUES OF THE
MID-UPPER 40S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO THE LOWER 50S OVER
INTERIOR SOUTHERN VA SHOULD BE ABOUT AS WARM AS IT WILL GET (THIS
IS AROUND 20 F BELOW AVG). HAVE INCLUDED A CLIMATE SECTION AS THIS
MAY RIVAL RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPS AT NORFOLK.


HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE. WILL LIKELY NEED ANOTHER FREEZE
WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT/THU MORNING. WITH SW FLOW
ALOFT AND THE SFC HIGH BECOMING CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT...THERE WILL TEND TO BE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND CLOUD COVER FROM THE SE. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACRS SE VA AND NE NC OVERNIGHT SO TEMPS SHOULD
REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING THERE (LOWS IN UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S)...WITH
A FREEZE MORE PROBABLE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA WHERE
SKIES GENLY STAY MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS DECOUPLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE TREND THAT STARTS TONIGHT/EARLY THU MORNING LOOKS TO CONTINUE
ON THU. SETUP SUPPORTS A STRONG INVERSION ABOVE 900 MB WHICH WILL
TEND TO TRAP ANY DEVELOPING MARINE LAYER CLOUDINESS. NOT MUCH
CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP GIVEN A VERY DRY AIRMASS ABOVE THE
INVERSION...BUT DO THINK SKIES WILL END UP MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST
OF THE CWA FROM I-95 EAST. THIS WILL KEEP HIGHS WELL BELOW
AVG...MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...WITH UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60
F OVER THE PIEDMONT. A DEEPER LAYER OF MOISTURE FROM 950 TO ABOUT
800 MB WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO ALL AREAS THU NIGHT/FRI AS A
COASTAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH CLOSER TO THE COAST. WILL CARRY A
SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) POPS THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI. WHILE THE OVERALL
AIRMASS WARMS QUITE A BIT ON FRI...HAVE SIDED ON COOLER EDGE OF
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS DUE TO CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT NE FLOW. LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 40S THU NIGHT WITH HIGHS FRI GENLY 55-60 F.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON A STALLED
BOUNDARY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRI NIGHT. THE LOW SHOULD TRACK NE
WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON SAT. THIS FEATURE MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO FAR SE VA/NE NC DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SWING
INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT AND SKIRT ACROSS NRN VA ON SAT. A
WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND MAY BRING A
BRIEF ROUND OF SHOWERS TO FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE FA (INCLUDING THE
MD/VA EASTERN SHORE) SAT AFTN/EARLY EVENING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE
AND DISSIPATING. THE SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW SAT
NIGHT...BUT THIS SHOULD OCCUR OVER NEW ENGLAND AND HAVE VERY LITTLE
IMPACT TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION SUN...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE BY SUN EVENING AS A RELATIVELY
FLAT (WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN INTO THE
AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SUBSEQUENT SFC
LOW TRAVELING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA ON MON/TUE. GFS PRECIP-GENERATION AND
GENERAL MOVEMENT IS A BIT AGGRESSIVE VERSUS THE ECMWF...THEREFORE
TRIED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH THE POP FORECAST AND LIMITED
COVERAGE TO NO HIGHER THAN 40 PERCENT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRAIGHT-FORWARD SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS NEAR
NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COASTS). HIGHS SAT/SUN RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 65 DEGREES FAR NE TO 70
DEGREES SW. AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH TUE...THE TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY
IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM SECTOR DEVELOPS. WITH PRECIP
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA ON MON...INCREASING CIRRUS SHOULD KEEP
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S WEST OF I-95 WITH WARMER TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 70S EAST OF I-95 (MID-UPPER 60S MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS
TUE SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE CHES BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS. LOW TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE ON
MON/TUE NIGHT SHOULD ALSO BE WARM WITH READINGS IN THE 50S (OR ABOUT
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. N WINDS
GUSTING TO OVER 20 KNOTS WILL BECOME NE AND DIMINISH OVR MOST OF
THE AREA LATER THIS AFTN INTO EARLY THIS EVENG...AS THE HI BLDS
OVR THE REGION THEN SHIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND. NE WINDS WILL REMAIN
AT 10 TO 15 KT AT ORF AND ECG TNGT THRU THU...AS THE HI
STRENGTHENS OVR NRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. NE OR
E FLO WILL PUSH SC DECK OF CLOUDS BACK INTO THE AREA LATE WED NGT
THRU THU.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING CONTINUES OVER THE CURRITUCK SOUND AND THE COASTAL
WATERS S OF CAPE CHARLES THROUGH 17Z. THE COASTAL WATERS N OF CAPE
CHARLES HAVE A SCA FOR WINDS AND LATER SEAS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY.
THE REST OF THE INLAND WATERS HAVE SCA FOR WINDS THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HI PRES SLIDES NE ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TNGT INTO FRI...AS A WEAK CSTL TROF DEVELOPS OFF THE SE
AND MID ATLC CST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NE
WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY 4/16:

RIC...45 (1929)
ORF...46 (1935)
SBY...45 (1935)
ECG...52 (1962 & 1952)

RECORD LOWS THU 4/17:

RIC...31 (1949)
ORF...34 (1875)
SBY...26 (2008)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/JAB
SHORT TERM...LKB/LSA
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...TMG/LSA
MARINE...MAS/LSA
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KRNK 161401
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1001 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN FACE OF THE
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
OF THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING
TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOR EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST TODAY FROM ERN OHIO TO NY BUT
WEDGE SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA. THE FEW SC OVER THE MTNS OF WV WILL
CLEAR OUT SOON WITH EVERYONE EXPERIENCING SUNNY SKIES. NOT MUCH
CHANGE TO FORECAST HIGH TEMPS WHICH WILL RUN ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOW
50S AREAWIDE.

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT BY SUNSET AND...WHEN COMBINED WITH
CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES...WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER NIGHT OF STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE TO AGAIN FALL
BELOW FREEZING. IN ADDITION...THE LACK OF ATMOSPHERIC MIXING WILL
ALSO PROMOTE AREAS OF FROST. WILL THEREFORE ISSUE ANOTHER FREEZE
WARNING FOR AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO THE LOW
30S MOST LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW VALLEY BOTTOMS FALLING INTO THE
UPPER TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD AS A LARGE
CANADIAN HIGH DRIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. THIS WILL SET
UP A WEDGE PATTERN...INITIALLY DRY. 850MB TEMPS REBOUND TOWARD 0C
THU FROM THE VERY COLD -12C CURRENTLY IN PLACE...BUT THEN HOVER IN
THE -2C TO 4C RANGE NORTH-SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY AS NE FLOW FROM THE
PARENT SFC HIGH SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION THUS RETARDING ANY
APPRECIABLE WARMING. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY THU...HELPING
TO WARM TEMPS FROM WIDESPREAD BELOW FREEZING TEMPS AGAIN DURING THE
EARLY MORNING. GIVEN THE PATTERN...HAVE FAVORED THE COLDER ECMWF MOS
GUIDANCE.

FRIDAY...THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE...WHICH BECOMES A MORE
APPRECIABLE DIVERGENCE BY SATURDAY...ON THE TRACK/INTENSITY OF A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND THE TRACK/INTENSITY/DEVELOPMENT OF A
SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. HPC MODEL
PREFERENCE IS WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH FAVORS DEVELOPMENT OF
A FAIRLY DEEP CLOSED LOW ALONG THE NE FL/GA/SC COAST. THE GFS
FAVORS THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE...AND AS A RESULT SHOWS
ANOTHER FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY WITH UPSLOPE -SHRA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS. WHILE
THE ECMWF DOES NOT DISCOUNT THIS TROUGH...IT SHOWS LITTLE PCPN AND
LITTLE APPRECIABLE COLD ADVECTION...FOCUSING MORE ENERGY INTO THE SE
U.S. SYSTEM...HENCE INDICATING MORE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS OUR CWA. THE
NAM AND CANADIAN OFFER SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS AS WELL...BOTH
SHOWING GREATER POTENTIAL FOR -SHRA FURTHER NORTH WITH THE SOUTHERN
SYSTEM AND THE NAM HAVING MORE FROM BOTH. AT ANY RATE...AT LEAST
THROUGH SAT AND UNTIL THE MODELS CAN COME TO BETTER CONSENSUS...HAVE
KEPT THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES DRY...BUT DID INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE NC
PIEDMONT TO 14 PERCENT LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF. FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...HAVE SHOWN SLIGHT CHC POPS INTO GREENBRIER/SUMMERS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH NW FLOW SHORT WAVE...DEPICTED TO SOME EXTENT BY ALL
MODELS. USED A ECMWF/GFS BLEND FOR TEMPS FRI-SAT...BUT HAVE LEANED
TOWARD THE COLDER ECMWF MOS AS NOTED ABOVE WITH PREVAILING NE FLOW
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND/OR COLDER NW FLOW SAT BEHIND SHORT WAVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

MUCH OF WHAT OCCURS...AT LEAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS
PERIOD...WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THE SE U.S. UPPER LOW. BY
MON...THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO NO LONGER INFLUENCE
THE AREA. OVERALL...MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED...BUT WILL NEED
TO WATCH SE-E PARTS OF THE CWA FOR CLOUD COVER AND COOL...MARITIME
EASTERLY FLOW AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. A
WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE TOP OF THE SE UPPER LOW
PROMISING TO CONTINUE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT AGAIN LIKELY TEMPERED BY THE EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE
BETWEEN THE LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTHEAST. MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO BE QUITE SIGNIFICANT WITH
RESPECT TO THE NEXT SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING ANOTHER AREA OF CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE...ALBEIT WEAKER...INTO THE SE U.S. CLOSED LOW...WHILE THE
GFS BRINGS MORE OF AN OPEN TROUGH TOWARD THE REGION. AT ANY
RATE...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN BY MON-TUE OF NEXT WEEK.
INSTABILITY APPEARS MARGINAL AT THIS POINT...ESPECIALLY PER ECMWF
SOLUTION. THUS...HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO CURRENT LONG TERM GRIDS
WITH LOW CHC POPS AND NO MENTION OF TSRA.

 SURFACE HIGH FILLING IN BEHIND FRIDAY`S WEAK BOUNDARY
EVENTUALLY COVERS NEW ENGLAND AND THE ENTIRE MIDDLE ATLANTIC TO
CLOSE THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...THIS HIGH MAY EVENTUALLY PARK OVER NEW
ENGLAND SETTING UP ANOTHER DRY WEDGE PER THE ECMWF. THUS...SUNDAY
MAY BE COLDER THAN SATURDAY. THE GFS HAS ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH JUST
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...WITH ELIMINATES THE EASTERLY COMPONENT/DRY
WEDGE...GIVING MORE OF A SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND A WARMER SUNDAY. WILL
GO BETWEEN THE MEX AND ECMWF MOS FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY. THE PATTERN
REMAINS DRY AND BENIGN...UNTIL NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT...WHEN BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON A FRONT WITH RAIN SHOWERS. WENT WITH CHC POPS
AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH THE MODEL AGREEMENT AT THIS
TIMERANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

LINGERING UPSLOPE LOW CLOUDS HAVE LIFTED NORTH AWAY FROM BLF/LWB
INTO POCAHONTAS AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES OF WV...WHERE THEY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING AS CONDITIONS FOR SUCH
BECOME LESS FAVORABLE. OTHERWISE...VFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF VALID PERIOD WITH SKC. IT APPEARS ANY UPSTREAM CIRRUS WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL THU AFTERNOON...SO HAVE GONE WITH SKC AT ALL TAF
SITES AFT 15Z THIS MORNING.

WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND GUSTINESS HAS GENERALLY ENDED.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW LOW END GUSTS THROUGH MID-MORNING AT THE
USUAL WINDIER LOCATIONS...SUCH AS ROA. HOWEVER...AS SFC HIGH
DRIFTS FAIRLY QUICKLY TO THE NE OF THE REGION...EXPECT WINDS TO
COME AROUND TO THE NE AND ENE THROUGH LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON...WITH LOW END GUSTS THEN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...ESPECIALLY LYH TO DAN. NE WINDS AT 5-7KTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD...BUT MAY TAKE
SLIGHTLY LONGER TO DEVELOP INTO EASTERN WV/FAR SW VA WEST OF THE
ALLEGHANY FRONT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY...MAINTAINING VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK UNDER LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST
FLOW.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY BUT APPEARS
SLOW AND WEAK ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN VFR DURING THE DAY FOR NOW. THIS
SYSTEM MAY BRING MVFR CIGS TO THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY...ALONG WITH
A FEW SHOWERS. OTRW VFR FOR THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 200 AM EDT TUESDAY...

RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ON TUESDAY WILL CAUSE RISES ALONG
MAINSTEM RIVERS INTO MIDWEEK. MUCH OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN OCCURRED
ALONG THE DAN RIVER BASIN WITH LEVELS FORECASTED TO REACH MINOR
FLOOD STAGE AT SOUTH BOSTON WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHER LOCATIONS
ALONG THE DAN AROUND DANVILLE AND PACES AS WELL AS RANDOLPH ALONG
THE LOWER ROANOKE RIVER WILL SEE BANKFULL CONDITIONS.

A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AT SOUTH BOSTON INTO LATE
THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 1000 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

RECORD LOWS AT BLACKSBURG...BLUEFIELD AND LEWISBURG THIS MORNING

BLACKSBURG TIED THEIRS AT 24...BLUEFIELD TIED THEIRS AT 23 AND
LEWISBURG BROKE THEIRS AT 23.


APRIL 17TH RECORD LOWS

ROANOKE 27F 1980......FORECASTED LOW 31F.
LYNCHBURG 27F 1904....FORECASTED LOW 30F.
DANVILLE 28F 1962.....FORECASTED LOW 30F.
BLUEFIELD 25F 2001....FORECASTED LOW 32F.
BLACKSBURG 20F 1974...FORECASTED LOW 26F.
LEWISBURG 25F 2001....FORECASTED LOW 20F.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     VAZ022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     NCZ003>006-019-020.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF/WP
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...KM
AVIATION...JH/NF/RAB
HYDROLOGY...JH
CLIMATE...JC/KM/WP




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 161401
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1001 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AND
SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BECOME CENTERED FROM NEW ENGLAND TO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINTAINING NORTHEAST
FLOW AND MUCH COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM MI SOUTH
INTO NORTHERN KY...AND BEGINNING TO RIDGE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS
EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS REMAIN GUSTY...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
COAST DUE TO RAPID PRESSURE RISES AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION BUT
WIND SPEEDS HAVE DROPPED OFF SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST FEW HRS. SKIES
HAVE GENLY CLEARED EXCEPT ACRS HAMPTON ROADS AND NE NC WHERE BKN
CLOUD COVER PERSISTS THROUGH MID MORNING.  PERHAPS EVEN MORE
IMPRESSIVE WILL BE HOW COLD TODAY`S HIGHS WILL BE EVEN WITH AMPLE
SUNSHINE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST GUIDANCE VALUES OF THE
MID-UPPER 40S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO THE LOWER 50S OVER
INTERIOR SOUTHERN VA SHOULD BE ABOUT AS WARM AS IT WILL GET (THIS
IS AROUND 20 F BELOW AVG). HAVE INCLUDED A CLIMATE SECTION AS THIS
MAY RIVAL RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPS AT NORFOLK.


HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE. WILL LIKELY NEED ANOTHER FREEZE
WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT/THU MORNING. WITH SW FLOW
ALOFT AND THE SFC HIGH BECOMING CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT...THERE WILL TEND TO BE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND CLOUD COVER FROM THE SE. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACRS SE VA AND NE NC OVERNIGHT SO TEMPS SHOULD
REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING THERE (LOWS IN UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S)...WITH
A FREEZE MORE PROBABLE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA WHERE
SKIES GENLY STAY MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS DECOUPLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE TREND THAT STARTS TONIGHT/EARLY THU MORNING LOOKS TO CONTINUE
ON THU. SETUP SUPPORTS A STRONG INVERSION ABOVE 900 MB WHICH WILL
TEND TO TRAP ANY DEVELOPING MARINE LAYER CLOUDINESS. NOT MUCH
CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP GIVEN A VERY DRY AIRMASS ABOVE THE
INVERSION...BUT DO THINK SKIES WILL END UP MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST
OF THE CWA FROM I-95 EAST. THIS WILL KEEP HIGHS WELL BELOW
AVG...MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...WITH UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60
F OVER THE PIEDMONT. A DEEPER LAYER OF MOISTURE FROM 950 TO ABOUT
800 MB WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO ALL AREAS THU NIGHT/FRI AS A
COASTAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH CLOSER TO THE COAST. WILL CARRY A
SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) POPS THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI. WHILE THE OVERALL
AIRMASS WARMS QUITE A BIT ON FRI...HAVE SIDED ON COOLER EDGE OF
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS DUE TO CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT NE FLOW. LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 40S THU NIGHT WITH HIGHS FRI GENLY 55-60 F.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON A STALLED
BOUNDARY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRI NIGHT. THE LOW SHOULD TRACK NE
WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON SAT. THIS FEATURE MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO FAR SE VA/NE NC DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SWING
INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT AND SKIRT ACROSS NRN VA ON SAT. A
WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND MAY BRING A
BRIEF ROUND OF SHOWERS TO FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE FA (INCLUDING THE
MD/VA EASTERN SHORE) SAT AFTN/EARLY EVENING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE
AND DISSIPATING. THE SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW SAT
NIGHT...BUT THIS SHOULD OCCUR OVER NEW ENGLAND AND HAVE VERY LITTLE
IMPACT TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION SUN...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE BY SUN EVENING AS A RELATIVELY
FLAT (WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN INTO THE
AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SUBSEQUENT SFC
LOW TRAVELING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA ON MON/TUE. GFS PRECIP-GENERATION AND
GENERAL MOVEMENT IS A BIT AGGRESSIVE VERSUS THE ECMWF...THEREFORE
TRIED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH THE POP FORECAST AND LIMITED
COVERAGE TO NO HIGHER THAN 40 PERCENT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRAIGHT-FORWARD SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS NEAR
NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COASTS). HIGHS SAT/SUN RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 65 DEGREES FAR NE TO 70
DEGREES SW. AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH TUE...THE TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY
IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM SECTOR DEVELOPS. WITH PRECIP
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA ON MON...INCREASING CIRRUS SHOULD KEEP
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S WEST OF I-95 WITH WARMER TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 70S EAST OF I-95 (MID-UPPER 60S MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS
TUE SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE CHES BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS. LOW TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE ON
MON/TUE NIGHT SHOULD ALSO BE WARM WITH READINGS IN THE 50S (OR ABOUT
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FARTHER OUT TO SEA THIS MORNG...AS
COLD HI PRES BLDS INTO THE AREA. BACK EDGE OF PCPN WILL MOVE WELL
OFF THE CST THIS MORNG...WITH ANY MVFR CONDITIONS QUICKLY BECOMING
VFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT N WINDS 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO ARND 30
KT THIS MORNG...TO BECOME NE AND DIMINISH OVR MOST OF THE AREA
LATER THIS AFTN INTO EARLY THIS EVENG...AS THE HI BLDS OVR THE
REGION THEN SHIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND. NE WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 10 TO
15 KT AND GUSTY AT ORF AND ECG TNGT THRU THU...AS THE HI
STRENGTHENS OVR NRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. NE OR
E FLO WILL PUSH SC DECK OF CLOUDS BACK INTO THE AREA LATE WED NGT
THRU THU.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE EXTENDED THE GALE WARNING FOR THE CHES BAY ZNS TIL 10 AM THIS
MORNG. OTHERWISE...GALE WARNINGS WILL GRADUALLY END AT 7 AM IN THE
RIVERS...AND 10 AM OR 1 PM TODAY OVR THE REMAINDER OF THE WTRS. THE
GALE WARNINGS WILL BE REPLACED WITH SCA`S LATER THIS MORNG INTO
EARLY THIS AFTN...AS HI PRES BLDS IN AND N WINDS GRADUALLY BEGIN TO
DIMINISH A BIT. HI PRES SLIDES NE ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES TNGT INTO FRI...AS A WEAK CSTL TROF DEVELOPS OFF
THE SE AND MID ATLC CST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
NE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY 4/16:

RIC...45 (1929)
ORF...46 (1935)
SBY...45 (1935)
ECG...52 (1962 & 1952)

RECORD LOWS THU 4/17:

RIC...31 (1949)
ORF...34 (1875)
SBY...26 (2008)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/JAB
SHORT TERM...LKB/LSA
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KRNK 161137
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
737 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...AND THEN BUILD SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN FACE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING TOWARD
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO THE REGION FOR EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATING WIND SPEEDS DIMINISHING AS HIGH
PRESSURE ADVANCES UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. STILL A FEW BANDS OF
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...BUT THESE BANDS WILL
CONTINUE TO FADE THROUGH THE MORNING AS WINDS BECOME INCREASINGLY
NORTHERLY AS THE HIGH APPROACHES. ALREADY OBSERVING TEMPERATURES
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT...AND AS
ATMOSPHERIC MIXING DECREASES WITH DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS...EXPECT
MORE LOCATIONS TO FALL BELOW FREEZING BEFORE SUNRISE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND
THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE ALSO BUILDING SOUTHWARD TO HUG THE EASTERN
FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS. AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN...WILL SEE WINDS
GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM NORTHERLY THIS MORNING...TO NORTHEASTERLY
BY THIS EVENING. FORECAST MODELS OFTEN UNDERESTIMATE THE STRENGTH
OF THESE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES HUGGING THE MOUNTAINS...AND WENT A
FEW DEGREES BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS...DESPITE THE
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S AREAWIDE.

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT BY SUNSET AND...WHEN COMBINED WITH
CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES...WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER NIGHT OF STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE TO AGAIN FALL
BELOW FREEZING. IN ADDITION...THE LACK OF ATMOSPHERIC MIXING WILL
ALSO PROMOTE AREAS OF FROST. WILL THEREFORE ISSUE ANOTHER FREEZE
WARNING FOR AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO THE LOW
30S MOST LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW VALLEY BOTTOMS FALLING INTO THE
UPPER TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD AS A LARGE
CANADIAN HIGH DRIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. THIS WILL SET
UP A WEDGE PATTERN...INITIALLY DRY. 850MB TEMPS REBOUND TOWARD 0C
THU FROM THE VERY COLD -12C CURRENTLY IN PLACE...BUT THEN HOVER IN
THE -2C TO 4C RANGE NORTH-SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY AS NE FLOW FROM THE
PARENT SFC HIGH SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION THUS RETARDING ANY
APPRECIABLE WARMING. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY THU...HELPING
TO WARM TEMPS FROM WIDESPREAD BELOW FREEZING TEMPS AGAIN DURING THE
EARLY MORNING. GIVEN THE PATTERN...HAVE FAVORED THE COLDER ECMWF MOS
GUIDANCE.

FRIDAY...THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE...WHICH BECOMES A MORE
APPRECIABLE DIVERGENCE BY SATURDAY...ON THE TRACK/INTENSITY OF A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND THE TRACK/INTENSITY/DEVELOPMENT OF A
SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. HPC MODEL
PREFERENCE IS WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH FAVORS DEVELOPMENT OF
A FAIRLY DEEP CLOSED LOW ALONG THE NE FL/GA/SC COAST. THE GFS
FAVORS THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE...AND AS A RESULT SHOWS
ANOTHER FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY WITH UPSLOPE -SHRA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS. WHILE
THE ECMWF DOES NOT DISCOUNT THIS TROUGH...IT SHOWS LITTLE PCPN AND
LITTLE APPRECIABLE COLD ADVECTION...FOCUSING MORE ENERGY INTO THE SE
U.S. SYSTEM...HENCE INDICATING MORE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS OUR CWA. THE
NAM AND CANADIAN OFFER SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS AS WELL...BOTH
SHOWING GREATER POTENTIAL FOR -SHRA FURTHER NORTH WITH THE SOUTHERN
SYSTEM AND THE NAM HAVING MORE FROM BOTH. AT ANY RATE...AT LEAST
THROUGH SAT AND UNTIL THE MODELS CAN COME TO BETTER CONSENSUS...HAVE
KEPT THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES DRY...BUT DID INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE NC
PIEDMONT TO 14 PERCENT LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF. FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...HAVE SHOWN SLIGHT CHC POPS INTO GREENBRIER/SUMMERS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH NW FLOW SHORT WAVE...DEPICTED TO SOME EXTENT BY ALL
MODELS. USED A ECMWF/GFS BLEND FOR TEMPS FRI-SAT...BUT HAVE LEANED
TOWARD THE COLDER ECMWF MOS AS NOTED ABOVE WITH PREVAILING NE FLOW
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND/OR COLDER NW FLOW SAT BEHIND SHORT WAVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

MUCH OF WHAT OCCURS...AT LEAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS
PERIOD...WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THE SE U.S. UPPER LOW. BY
MON...THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO NO LONGER INFLUENCE
THE AREA. OVERALL...MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED...BUT WILL NEED
TO WATCH SE-E PARTS OF THE CWA FOR CLOUD COVER AND COOL...MARITIME
EASTERLY FLOW AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. A
WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE TOP OF THE SE UPPER LOW
PROMISING TO CONTINUE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT AGAIN LIKELY TEMPERED BY THE EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE
BETWEEN THE LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTHEAST. MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO BE QUITE SIGNIFICANT WITH
RESPECT TO THE NEXT SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING ANOTHER AREA OF CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE...ALBEIT WEAKER...INTO THE SE U.S. CLOSED LOW...WHILE THE
GFS BRINGS MORE OF AN OPEN TROUGH TOWARD THE REGION. AT ANY
RATE...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN BY MON-TUE OF NEXT WEEK.
INSTABILITY APPEARS MARGINAL AT THIS POINT...ESPECIALLY PER ECMWF
SOLUTION. THUS...HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO CURRENT LONG TERM GRIDS
WITH LOW CHC POPS AND NO MENTION OF TSRA.

 SURFACE HIGH FILLING IN BEHIND FRIDAY`S WEAK BOUNDARY
EVENTUALLY COVERS NEW ENGLAND AND THE ENTIRE MIDDLE ATLANTIC TO
CLOSE THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...THIS HIGH MAY EVENTUALLY PARK OVER NEW
ENGLAND SETTING UP ANOTHER DRY WEDGE PER THE ECMWF. THUS...SUNDAY
MAY BE COLDER THAN SATURDAY. THE GFS HAS ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH JUST
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...WITH ELIMINATES THE EASTERLY COMPONENT/DRY
WEDGE...GIVING MORE OF A SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND A WARMER SUNDAY. WILL
GO BETWEEN THE MEX AND ECMWF MOS FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY. THE PATTERN
REMAINS DRY AND BENIGN...UNTIL NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT...WHEN BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON A FRONT WITH RAIN SHOWERS. WENT WITH CHC POPS
AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH THE MODEL AGREEMENT AT THIS
TIMERANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

LINGERING UPSLOPE LOW CLOUDS HAVE LIFTED NORTH AWAY FROM BLF/LWB
INTO POCAHONTAS AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES OF WV...WHERE THEY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING AS CONDITIONS FOR SUCH
BECOME LESS FAVORABLE. OTHERWISE...VFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF VALID PERIOD WITH SKC. IT APPEARS ANY UPSTREAM CIRRUS WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL THU AFTERNOON...SO HAVE GONE WITH SKC AT ALL TAF
SITES AFT 15Z THIS MORNING.

WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND GUSTINESS HAS GENERALLY ENDED.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW LOW END GUSTS THROUGH MID-MORNING AT THE
USUAL WINDIER LOCATIONS...SUCH AS ROA. HOWEVER...AS SFC HIGH
DRIFTS FAIRLY QUICKLY TO THE NE OF THE REGION...EXPECT WINDS TO
COME AROUND TO THE NE AND ENE THROUGH LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON...WITH LOW END GUSTS THEN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...ESPECIALLY LYH TO DAN. NE WINDS AT 5-7KTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD...BUT MAY TAKE
SLIGHTLY LONGER TO DEVELOP INTO EASTERN WV/FAR SW VA WEST OF THE
ALLEGHANY FRONT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY...MAINTAINING VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK UNDER LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST
FLOW.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY BUT APPEARS
SLOW AND WEAK ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN VFR DURING THE DAY FOR NOW. THIS
SYSTEM MAY BRING MVFR CIGS TO THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY...ALONG WITH
A FEW SHOWERS. OTRW VFR FOR THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 200 AM EDT TUESDAY...

RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ON TUESDAY WILL CAUSE RISES ALONG
MAINSTEM RIVERS INTO MIDWEEK. MUCH OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN OCCURRED
ALONG THE DAN RIVER BASIN WITH LEVELS FORECASTED TO REACH MINOR
FLOOD STAGE AT SOUTH BOSTON WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHER LOCATIONS
ALONG THE DAN AROUND DANVILLE AND PACES AS WELL AS RANDOLPH ALONG
THE LOWER ROANOKE RIVER WILL SEE BANKFULL CONDITIONS.

A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AT SOUTH BOSTON INTO LATE
THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

POSSIBLE RECORD LOWS FOR APRIL 16TH

BLACKSBURG 24F 2008...FORECASTED LOW 24F.
LEWISBURG 25F 2008....FORECASTED LOW 21F.


APRIL 17TH RECORD LOWS

ROANOKE 27F 1980......FORECASTED LOW 31F.
LYNCHBURG 27F 1904....FORECASTED LOW 30F.
DANVILLE 28F 1962.....FORECASTED LOW 30F.
BLUEFIELD 25F 2001....FORECASTED LOW 32F.
BLACKSBURG 20F 1974...FORECASTED LOW 26F.
LEWISBURG 25F 2001....FORECASTED LOW 20F.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ022>024-
     032>035-043>047-058-059.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     VAZ022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ003>006-019-
     020.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     NCZ003>006-019-020.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...KM
AVIATION...JH/NF/RAB
HYDROLOGY...JH
CLIMATE...JC/KM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 160842
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
442 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...AND THEN BUILD SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN FACE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING TOWARD
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO THE REGION FOR EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATING WIND SPEEDS DIMINISHING AS HIGH
PRESSURE ADVANCES UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. STILL A FEW BANDS OF
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...BUT THESE BANDS WILL
CONTINUE TO FADE THROUGH THE MORNING AS WINDS BECOME INCREASINGLY
NORTHERLY AS THE HIGH APPROACHES. ALREADY OBSERVING TEMPERATURES
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT...AND AS
ATMOSPHERIC MIXING DECREASES WITH DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS...EXPECT
MORE LOCATIONS TO FALL BELOW FREEZING BEFORE SUNRISE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND
THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE ALSO BUILDING SOUTHWARD TO HUG THE EASTERN
FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS. AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN...WILL SEE WINDS
GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM NORTHERLY THIS MORNING...TO NORTHEASTERLY
BY THIS EVENING. FORECAST MODELS OFTEN UNDERESTIMATE THE STRENGTH
OF THESE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES HUGGING THE MOUNTAINS...AND WENT A
FEW DEGREES BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS...DESPITE THE
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S AREAWIDE.

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT BY SUNSET AND...WHEN COMBINED WITH
CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES...WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER NIGHT OF STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE TO AGAIN FALL
BELOW FREEZING. IN ADDITION...THE LACK OF ATMOSPHERIC MIXING WILL
ALSO PROMOTE AREAS OF FROST. WILL THEREFORE ISSUE ANOTHER FREEZE
WARNING FOR AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO THE LOW
30S MOST LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW VALLEY BOTTOMS FALLING INTO THE
UPPER TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD AS A LARGE
CANADIAN HIGH DRIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. THIS WILL SET
UP A WEDGE PATTERN...INITIALLY DRY. 850MB TEMPS REBOUND TOWARD 0C
THU FROM THE VERY COLD -12C CURRENTLY IN PLACE...BUT THEN HOVER IN
THE -2C TO 4C RANGE NORTH-SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY AS NE FLOW FROM THE
PARENT SFC HIGH SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION THUS RETARDING ANY
APPRECIABLE WARMING. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY THU...HELPING
TO WARM TEMPS FROM WIDESPREAD BELOW FREEZING TEMPS AGAIN DURING THE
EARLY MORNING. GIVEN THE PATTERN...HAVE FAVORED THE COLDER ECMWF MOS
GUIDANCE.

FRIDAY...THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE...WHICH BECOMES A MORE
APPRECIABLE DIVERGENCE BY SATURDAY...ON THE TRACK/INTENSITY OF A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND THE TRACK/INTENSITY/DEVELOPMENT OF A
SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. HPC MODEL
PREFERENCE IS WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH FAVORS DEVELOPMENT OF
A FAIRLY DEEP CLOSED LOW ALONG THE NE FL/GA/SC COAST. THE GFS
FAVORS THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE...AND AS A RESULT SHOWS
ANOTHER FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY WITH UPSLOPE -SHRA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS. WHILE
THE ECMWF DOES NOT DISCOUNT THIS TROUGH...IT SHOWS LITTLE PCPN AND
LITTLE APPRECIABLE COLD ADVECTION...FOCUSING MORE ENERGY INTO THE SE
U.S. SYSTEM...HENCE INDICATING MORE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS OUR CWA. THE
NAM AND CANADIAN OFFER SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS AS WELL...BOTH
SHOWING GREATER POTENTIAL FOR -SHRA FURTHER NORTH WITH THE SOUTHERN
SYSTEM AND THE NAM HAVING MORE FROM BOTH. AT ANY RATE...AT LEAST
THROUGH SAT AND UNTIL THE MODELS CAN COME TO BETTER CONSENSUS...HAVE
KEPT THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES DRY...BUT DID INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE NC
PIEDMONT TO 14 PERCENT LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF. FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...HAVE SHOWN SLIGHT CHC POPS INTO GREENBRIER/SUMMERS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH NW FLOW SHORT WAVE...DEPICTED TO SOME EXTENT BY ALL
MODELS. USED A ECMWF/GFS BLEND FOR TEMPS FRI-SAT...BUT HAVE LEANED
TOWARD THE COLDER ECMWF MOS AS NOTED ABOVE WITH PREVAILING NE FLOW
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND/OR COLDER NW FLOW SAT BEHIND SHORT WAVE.

&&

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

MUCH OF WHAT OCCURS...AT LEAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS
PERIOD...WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THE SE U.S. UPPER LOW. BY
MON...THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO NO LONGER INFLUENCE
THE AREA. OVERALL...MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED...BUT WILL NEED
TO WATCH SE-E PARTS OF THE CWA FOR CLOUD COVER AND COOL...MARITIME
EASTERLY FLOW AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. A
WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE TOP OF THE SE UPPER LOW
PROMISING TO CONTINUE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT AGAIN LIKELY TEMPERED BY THE EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE
BETWEEN THE LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTHEAST. MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO BE QUITE SIGNIFICANT WITH
RESPECT TO THE NEXT SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING ANOTHER AREA OF CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE...ALBEIT WEAKER...INTO THE SE U.S. CLOSED LOW...WHILE THE
GFS BRINGS MORE OF AN OPEN TROUGH TOWARD THE REGION. AT ANY
RATE...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN BY MON-TUE OF NEXT WEEK.
INSTABILITY APPEARS MARGINAL AT THIS POINT...ESPECIALLY PER ECMWF
SOLUTION. THUS...HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO CURRENT LONG TERM GRIDS
WITH LOW CHC POPS AND NO MENTION OF TSRA.

 SURFACE HIGH FILLING IN BEHIND FRIDAY`S WEAK BOUNDARY
EVENTUALLY COVERS NEW ENGLAND AND THE ENTIRE MIDDLE ATLANTIC TO
CLOSE THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...THIS HIGH MAY EVENTUALLY PARK OVER NEW
ENGLAND SETTING UP ANOTHER DRY WEDGE PER THE ECMWF. THUS...SUNDAY
MAY BE COLDER THAN SATURDAY. THE GFS HAS ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH JUST
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...WITH ELIMINATES THE EASTERLY COMPONENT/DRY
WEDGE...GIVING MORE OF A SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND A WARMER SUNDAY. WILL
GO BETWEEN THE MEX AND ECMWF MOS FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY. THE PATTERN
REMAINS DRY AND BENIGN...UNTIL NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT...WHEN BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON A FRONT WITH RAIN SHOWERS. WENT WITH CHC POPS
AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH THE MODEL AGREEMENT AT THIS
TIMERANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

WIND SPEEDS CONTINUE TO ABATE THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN. WINDS WILL VEER AS THE HIGH CONTINUES EAST...
BECOMING NORTHERLY BY SUNRISE...WHICH WILL HELP ERODE REMAINING
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE.
CLEAR SKIES WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND...IT WILL ALSO BUILD
SOUTHWARD...WEDGING AGAINST THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS.
WINDS WILL BECOME EAST NORTHEASTERLY DURING EARLY AFTERNOON...AND
WILL REMAIN SO INTO THURSDAY. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AROUND 10KT DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS...AND
WILL DROP TO 2KT TO 4KT AFTER SUNSET.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY...MAINTAINING VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK UNDER LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST
FLOW.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY BUT APPEARS
SLOW AND WEAK ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN VFR DURING THE DAY FOR NOW. THIS
SYSTEM MAY BRING MVFR CIGS TO THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY...ALONG WITH
A FEW SHOWERS. OTRW VFR FOR THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 200 AM EDT TUESDAY...

RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ON TUESDAY WILL CAUSE RISES ALONG
MAINSTEM RIVERS INTO MIDWEEK. MUCH OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN OCCURRED
ALONG THE DAN RIVER BASIN WITH LEVELS FORECASTED TO REACH MINOR
FLOOD STAGE AT SOUTH BOSTON WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHER LOCATIONS
ALONG THE DAN AROUND DANVILLE AND PACES AS WELL AS RANDOLPH ALONG
THE LOWER ROANOKE RIVER WILL SEE BANKFULL CONDITIONS.

A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AT SOUTH BOSTON INTO LATE
THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

POSSIBLE RECORD LOWS FOR APRIL 16TH

BLACKSBURG 24F 2008...FORECASTED LOW 24F.
LEWISBURG 25F 2008....FORECASTED LOW 21F.


APRIL 17TH RECORD LOWS

ROANOKE 27F 1980......FORECASTED LOW 31F.
LYNCHBURG 27F 1904....FORECASTED LOW 30F.
DANVILLE 28F 1962.....FORECASTED LOW 30F.
BLUEFIELD 25F 2001....FORECASTED LOW 32F.
BLACKSBURG 20F 1974...FORECASTED LOW 26F.
LEWISBURG 25F 2001....FORECASTED LOW 20F.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ022>024-
     032>035-043>047-058-059.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     VAZ022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ003>006-019-
     020.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     NCZ003>006-019-020.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...KM/RAB
AVIATION...NF
HYDROLOGY...JH
CLIMATE...JC/KM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 160830
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
430 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AND
SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BECOME CENTERED FROM NEW ENGLAND TO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINTAINING NORTHEAST
FLOW AND MUCH COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM MI SOUTH
INTO NORTHERN KY...AND BEGINNING TO RIDGE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS
EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS REMAIN GUSTY...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
COAST DUE TO RAPID PRESSURE RISES AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION BUT
WIND SPEEDS HAVE DROPPED OFF SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST FEW HRS. SKIES
HAVE GENLY CLEARED EXCEPT ACRS HAMPTON ROADS AND NE NC WHERE BKN
CLOUD COVER PERSISTS THROUGH MID MORNING. WILL MAINTAIN FREEZE
WARNING THROUGH 9 AM...ALTHOUGH IT MAY HAVE SOME TROUBLE VERIFYING
OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS DUE TO CONTINUED MIXING (LOWS
MAY END UP CLOSER TO 33-34 F IN THESE AREAS). STILL IS QUITE COLD
FOR MID APRIL...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO FALL A FEW MORE
DEGREES THROUGH 7 AM...INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL VA AND INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S ALONG THE SE COASTAL AREAS.
PERHAPS EVEN MORE IMPRESSIVE WILL BE HOW COLD TODAY`S HIGHS WILL
BE EVEN WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST
GUIDANCE VALUES OF THE MID-UPPER 40S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO THE
LOWER 50S OVER INTERIOR SOUTHERN VA SHOULD BE ABOUT AS WARM AS IT
WILL GET (THIS IS AROUND 20 F BELOW AVG). HAVE INCLUDED A CLIMATE
SECTION AS THIS MAY RIVAL RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPS AT NORFOLK.


HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE. WILL LIKELY NEED ANOTHER FREEZE
WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT/THU MORNING. WITH SW FLOW
ALOFT AND THE SFC HIGH BECOMING CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT...THERE WILL TEND TO BE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND CLOUD COVER FROM THE SE. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACRS SE VA AND NE NC OVERNIGHT SO TEMPS SHOULD
REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING THERE (LOWS IN UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S)...WITH
A FREEZE MORE PROBABLE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA WHERE
SKIES GENLY STAY MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS DECOUPLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE TREND THAT STARTS TONIGHT/EARLY THU MORNING LOOKS TO CONTINUE
ON THU. SETUP SUPPORTS A STRONG INVERSION ABOVE 900 MB WHICH WILL
TEND TO TRAP ANY DEVELOPING MARINE LAYER CLOUDINESS. NOT MUCH
CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP GIVEN A VERY DRY AIRMASS ABOVE THE
INVERSION...BUT DO THINK SKIES WILL END UP MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST
OF THE CWA FROM I-95 EAST. THIS WILL KEEP HIGHS WELL BELOW
AVG...MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...WITH UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60
F OVER THE PIEDMONT. A DEEPER LAYER OF MOISTURE FROM 950 TO ABOUT
800 MB WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO ALL AREAS THU NIGHT/FRI AS A
COASTAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH CLOSER TO THE COAST. WILL CARRY A
SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) POPS THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI. WHILE THE OVERALL
AIRMASS WARMS QUITE A BIT ON FRI...HAVE SIDED ON COOLER EDGE OF
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS DUE TO CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT NE FLOW. LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 40S THU NIGHT WITH HIGHS FRI GENLY 55-60 F.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON A STALLED
BOUNDARY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRI NIGHT. THE LOW SHOULD TRACK NE
WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON SAT. THIS FEATURE MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO FAR SE VA/NE NC DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SWING
INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT AND SKIRT ACROSS NRN VA ON SAT. A
WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND MAY BRING A
BRIEF ROUND OF SHOWERS TO FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE FA (INCLUDING THE
MD/VA EASTERN SHORE) SAT AFTN/EARLY EVENING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE
AND DISSIPATING. THE SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW SAT
NIGHT...BUT THIS SHOULD OCCUR OVER NEW ENGLAND AND HAVE VERY LITTLE
IMPACT TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION SUN...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE BY SUN EVENING AS A RELATIVELY
FLAT (WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN INTO THE
AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SUBSEQUENT SFC
LOW TRAVELING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA ON MON/TUE. GFS PRECIP-GENERATION AND
GENERAL MOVEMENT IS A BIT AGGRESSIVE VERSUS THE ECMWF...THEREFORE
TRIED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH THE POP FORECAST AND LIMITED
COVERAGE TO NO HIGHER THAN 40 PERCENT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRAIGHT-FORWARD SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS NEAR
NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COASTS). HIGHS SAT/SUN RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 65 DEGREES FAR NE TO 70
DEGREES SW. AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH TUE...THE TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY
IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM SECTOR DEVELOPS. WITH PRECIP
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA ON MON...INCREASING CIRRUS SHOULD KEEP
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S WEST OF I-95 WITH WARMER TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 70S EAST OF I-95 (MID-UPPER 60S MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS
TUE SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE CHES BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS. LOW TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE ON
MON/TUE NIGHT SHOULD ALSO BE WARM WITH READINGS IN THE 50S (OR ABOUT
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FARTHER OUT TO SEA THIS MORNG...AS
COLD HI PRES BLDS INTO THE AREA. BACK EDGE OF PCPN WILL MOVE WELL
OFF THE CST THIS MORNG...WITH ANY MVFR CONDITIONS QUICKLY BECOMING
VFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT N WINDS 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO ARND 30
KT THIS MORNG...TO BECOME NE AND DIMINISH OVR MOST OF THE AREA
LATER THIS AFTN INTO EARLY THIS EVENG...AS THE HI BLDS OVR THE
REGION THEN SHIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND. NE WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 10 TO
15 KT AND GUSTY AT ORF AND ECG TNGT THRU THU...AS THE HI
STRENGTHENS OVR NRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. NE OR
E FLO WILL PUSH SC DECK OF CLOUDS BACK INTO THE AREA LATE WED NGT
THRU THU.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE EXTENDED THE GALE WARNING FOR THE CHES BAY ZNS TIL 10 AM THIS
MORNG. OTHERWISE...GALE WARNINGS WILL GRADUALLY END AT 7 AM IN THE
RIVERS...AND 10 AM OR 1 PM TODAY OVR THE REMAINDER OF THE WTRS. THE
GALE WARNINGS WILL BE REPLACED WITH SCA`S LATER THIS MORNG INTO
EARLY THIS AFTN...AS HI PRES BLDS IN AND N WINDS GRADUALLY BEGIN TO
DIMINISH A BIT. HI PRES SLIDES NE ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES TNGT INTO FRI...AS A WEAK CSTL TROF DEVELOPS OFF
THE SE AND MID ATLC CST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
NE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY 4/16:

RIC...45 (1929)
ORF...46 (1935)
SBY...45 (1935)
ECG...52 (1962 & 1952)

RECORD LOWS THU 4/17:

RIC...31 (1949)
ORF...34 (1875)
SBY...26 (2008)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ021>024.
NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ012.
VA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ048-049-
     060>085-087>094.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     650-652-654.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/LSA
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...AKQ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 160801
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
401 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AND
SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINTAINING BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM MI SOUTH
INTO NORTHERN KY...AND BEGINNING TO RIDGE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS
EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS REMAIN GUSTY...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
COAST DUE TO RAPID PRESSURE RISES AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION BUT
WIND SPEEDS HAVE DROPPED OFF SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST FEW HRS. SKIES
HAVE GENLY CLEARED EXCEPT ACRS HAMPTON ROADS AND NE NC WHERE BKN
CLOUD COVER PERSISTS THROUGH MID MORNING. WILL MAINTAIN FREEZE
WARNING THROUGH 9 AM...ALTHOUGH IT MAY HAVE SOME TROUBLE VERIFYING
OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS DUE TO CONTINUED MIXING (LOWS
MAY END UP CLOSER TO 33-34 F IN THESE AREAS). STILL IS QUITE COLD
FOR MID APRIL...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO FALL A FEW MORE
DEGREES THROUGH 7 AM...INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL VA AND INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S ALONG THE SE COASTAL AREAS.
PERHAPS EVEN MORE IMPRESSIVE WILL BE HOW COLD TODAY`S HIGHS WILL
BE EVEN WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST
GUIDANCE VALUES OF THE MID-UPPER 40S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO THE
LOWER 50S OVER INTERIOR SOUTHERN VA SHOULD BE ABOUT AS WARM AS IT
WILL GET (THIS IS AROUND 20 F BELOW AVG). HAVE INCLUDED A CLIMATE
SECTION AS THIS MAY RIVAL RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPS AT NORFOLK.


HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE. WILL LIKELY NEED ANOTHER FREEZE
WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT/THU MORNING. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACRS SE AREAS
OVERNIGHT SO TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING THERE...WITH
A FREEZE MORE PROBABLE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...


TEMPERATURES WARM A BIT FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S OVER
INTERIOR AREAS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN TOWARD THE
COAST...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON A STALLED
BOUNDARY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRI NIGHT. THE LOW SHOULD TRACK NE
WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON SAT. THIS FEATURE MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO FAR SE VA/NE NC DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SWING
INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT AND SKIRT ACROSS NRN VA ON SAT. A
WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND MAY BRING A
BRIEF ROUND OF SHOWERS TO FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE FA (INCLUDING THE
MD/VA EASTERN SHORE) SAT AFTN/EARLY EVENING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE
AND DISSIPATING. THE SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW SAT
NIGHT...BUT THIS SHOULD OCCUR OVER NEW ENGLAND AND HAVE VERY LITTLE
IMPACT TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION SUN...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE BY SUN EVENING AS A RELATIVELY
FLAT (WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN INTO THE
AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SUBSEQUENT SFC
LOW TRAVELLING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA ON MON/TUE. GFS PRECIP-GENERATION AND
GENERAL MOVEMENT IS A BIT AGGRESSIVE VERSUS THE ECMWF...THEREFORE
TRIED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH THE POP FORECAST AND LIMITED
COVERAGE TO NO HIGHER THAN 40 PERCENT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRAIGHT-FORWARD SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS NEAR
NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COASTS). HIGHS SAT/SUN RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 65 DEGREES FAR NE TO 70
DEGREES SW. AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH TUE...THE TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY
IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM SECTOR DEVELOPS. WITH PRECIP
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA ON MON...INCREASING CIRRUS SHOULD KEEP
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S WEST OF I-95 WITH WARMER TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 70S EAST OF I-95 (MID-UPPER 60S MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS
TUE SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE CHES BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS. LOW TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE ON
MON/TUE NIGHT SHOULD ALSO BE WARM WITH READINGS IN THE 50S (OR ABOUT
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FARTHER OUT TO SEA THIS MORNG...AS
COLD HI PRES BLDS INTO THE AREA. BACK EDGE OF PCPN WILL MOVE WELL
OFF THE CST THIS MORNG...WITH ANY MVFR CONDITIONS QUICKLY BECOMING
VFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT N WINDS 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO ARND 30
KT THIS MORNG...TO BECOME NE AND DIMINISH OVR MOST OF THE AREA
LATER THIS AFTN INTO EARLY THIS EVENG...AS THE HI BLDS OVR THE
REGION THEN SHIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND. NE WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 10 TO
15 KT AND GUSTY AT ORF AND ECG TNGT THRU THU...AS THE HI
STRENGTHENS OVR NRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. NE OR
E FLO WILL PUSH SC DECK OF CLOUDS BACK INTO THE AREA LATE WED NGT
THRU THU.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNGS WILL CONTINUE AS PLANNED FOR ALL WTRS TDY INTO TNGT. A
STRONG COLD FRNT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE MID ATLANTIC
CST...WITH GUSTY SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRNT TO BE FOLLOWED BY
STRONGER NW FLOW BEHIND THE FRNT. EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 35-40 KT OVRNGT
AS THE FRNT PUSHES OFFSHORE AND HI PRES BLDS IN FROM THE W WITH
LARGE PRES RISES. WAVES WILL RISE TO 4 TO 6 FT OVR THE BAY...AND
SEAS WILL RISE TO 6 TO 9 FT ON THE CSTL WTRS. HI PRES CONTINUES TO
BLD IN THRU WED AFTN...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY. STILL HAVE THE GALES ENDING AT 7 AM FOR THE
BAY/RIVERS...AND HOLDING INTO THE ERLY AFTN FOR THE CST AND SOUND.
HI PRES SLIDES NE ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
WED NGT THRU FRI...AS A WEAK CSTL TROF DEVELOPS OFF THE SE CST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS THRU
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY 4/16:

RIC...45 (1929)
ORF...46 (1935)
SBY...45 (1935)

RECORD LOWS THU 4/17:

RIC...31 (1949)
ORF...34 (1875)
SBY...26 (2008)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ021>024.
NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ012.
VA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ048-049-
     060>085-087>094.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     650-652-654.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/LSA
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KLWX 160758
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
358 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD DURING MIDWEEK...BEFORE MOVE OFFSHORE
LATE IN THE WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT THE AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

AS OF 07Z...1028MB SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER SWRN OHIO WILL INTENSIFY
AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC TODAY. PRESSURE
GRADIENT SLOWLY DECREASES THROUGH THE DAY...WITH NWLY GUSTS OF 30 TO
35 MPH EASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND BECOMING NLY. NELY FLOW
TONIGHT AS A SFC RIDGE STALLS OVER THE AREA...SETTING UP COLD AIR
DAMMING THAT WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. MAX TEMPS AROUND 50F
TODAY CWA WIDE (LOW 50S S OF KCHO).

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE MODERATED FROM NELY FLOW COMING OFF MID
40S OCEAN TEMPS AND LOW 50S BAY TEMPS. LEFT FREEZE WARNING DECISION
TO DAY SHIFT SINCE MOST GUIDANCE HAS ZONES IN THE LOW 30S. PIEDMONT
AND CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AREAS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
SUBFREEZING TEMPS TONIGHT.

LOW CLOUDS SPREAD EAST INTO SRN MD THURSDAY AS THE ONSHORE FLOW
SATURATES. MAX TEMPS GENERALLY INCREASE NE TO SW BASED ON ONSHORE
FLOW...MID 50S FOR NERN MD TO UPR 50S/LOW 60S IN CNTRL SHEN VLY/KCHO.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGH PRES OVR NEW ENGLAND WL BE TRACKING SLOWLY NE THU NGT AND
FRI...LVG THE MID ATLC IN A WEDGING SITUATION WHICH IS XPCTD TO
LEAD TO A PD OF CAD CONDITIONS - NERLY LO LVL WINDS WHICH WL
CREATE A LOW CLD DECK OVR THE RGN E OF THE MTNS. THE SUNNIEST
PLACE IN THE FCST AREA FRI WL LKLY BE W OF THE BLUE RDG. NO PCPN
IS XPCTD - IF ANYTHING WERE TO DVLP IT WOULD BE DZ. LOWS THU NGT
IN THE 30S/L40S. HIGHS FRI 55-60.

ON SAT AN UPR LVL TROF WL TRACK N OF THE AREA...BUT WL DRAG A CD
FNT THRU THE RGN. SOMETIMES CAD ENVIRONMENTS OF LO CLDS CAN HANG
ARND IN THE MID ATLC UP TO 4 DAYS...BUT THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO BE
THE CASE THIS TIME...AS CD FOPA IS PRBLY THE #1 WAY TO DISLODGE
CAD. BUT W/ THIS WL ALSO COME THE PSBLTY OF RA. HIGHS SAT IN THE
M60S.

SUN LOOKING TO BE THE BETTER DAY OF THE WKND FOR OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES - SKIES SHOULD CLR AS HIGH PRES RETURNS. LOWS SAT NGT
U30S/L40S. HIGHS IN THE LM60S.

TEMPS XPCTD TO SLOWLY CLIMB DURG THE 1ST PART OF THE NEW WK W/ UPR
LVL FLOW MORE OR LESS ZNL. BY TUE HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE BACK ABV 70
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

VFR THROUGH TAF PERIOD AND GUSTY TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. NW WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30 KT EARLY
THIS MORNING SLOWLY EASE THROUGH THE DAY. ONSHORE FLOW FROM COLD AIR
DAMMING RIDGE TONIGHT...THURSDAY (CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY).

A CAD SET UP IN XPCTD THU NGT/FRI. THIS WOULD LKLY LEAD TO CIGS IN
THE MVFR RNG. A CD FNT IS XPCTD TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SAT WHICH
COULD PSBLY SPAWN RA/RW. VFR CONDS XPCTD SUN AS HIGH PRES RETURNS.

&&

.MARINE...

NWLY GALES OBS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY FEW AND FAR BETWEEN...EXCEPT WHERE
CHANNELING IS OCCURRING (SUCH AS AT COVE PT WHICH HAS HAD GUSTS
AROUND 40 KT). DCA HAD A 240 AM PEAK GUST OF 34 KT...SO THE GALE
WARNING WILL REMAIN UP FOR NOW FOR ALL WATERS. WILL PROBABLY BE ABLE
TO DROP BEFORE 6AM FOR NWRN PORTIONS OF THE WATERS...BUT EXTENDED
UNTIL 9AM FOR LOWER SRN MD WATERS FOR CONTINUED CHANNELING. SCA FOR
ALL WATERS TO 2PM AND MOST MD BAY UNTIL 6PM. FLOW BECOMES NELY THIS
EVENING...INCREASING TO 20 KT FOR LOWER SRN MD WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT
(WHEN AN SCA GOES INTO EFFECT)...THEN EXPANDING UP THE REST OF THE
MD BAY BEFORE SUNRISE. ALL BUT THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC IN AN SCA FOR
THE DAY THURSDAY WITH NELY FLOW GUSTING AROUND 20 KT.


SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF
THE WATERS SAT NIGHT IN A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
LOW PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

STRONG NW WINDS HV CAUSED WATER LEVELS IN THE CHES BAY TO DROP TO 1
TO 1.5 FT BLO NRML. TIDAL BLOWOUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TODAY WITH ANOMALIES UP TO 2 FEET BELOW NORMAL. MWS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THIS. WATER LVLS SHOULD BEGIN TO RECOVER THIS AFTN.

&&

.CLIMATE...

A VERY COLD AIRMASS FOR MID APRIL IS CAUSING TEMPS TO APPROACH
RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING. BELOW IS A TABLE OF RECORD
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR APRIL 16 ALONG WITH THE 3 AM TEMPS.

SITE...RECORD LOW TEMP   3 AM WED TEMP
DCA....29 F IN 1928      35
BWI....30 F IN 1962      33
IAD....28 F IN 1981      32

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     DCZ001.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR DCZ001.
MD...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     MDZ004>007-009>011-013-014-016>018.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ011-013-014-
     016>018.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ004>007-009-
     010.
VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     VAZ036>040-042-050>057-501-502.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ052>057.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ036>040-042-
     050-051-501-502.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ531-532-537-539>541.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ530>533-538>541.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ530>532-
     535>542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ530-535-536-538-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ536-
     542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ533-534-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ534-537-543.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ533-534-543.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...BAJ/WOODY!








000
FXUS61 KRNK 160614
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
214 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST BRINGING DRIER AND MUCH COLDER AIR OVERNIGHT. THIS AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN IN
CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY
BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOR EARLY IN THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1150 PM EDT TUESDAY...

QUICK UPDATE TO EXPIRE THE GOING WIND ADVISORY AS SPEEDS CONTINUE
TO DECREASE AND SHOULD DIMINISH FURTHER AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTRW
FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK WITH UPSLOPE CLOUDS FADING ALONG WITH
ISOLATED -SHSN FAR NW AND SKIES CLEARING ACROSS THE FREEZE WARNING
REGION OUT EAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 850 PM EDT TUESDAY...

FRONT IS NOW WELL EAST OF THE REGION WITH COLD ADVECTION ONGOING
AS THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT AND BEST SUBSIDENCE MOVE IN DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A PERIOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
IN SPOTS ALONG THE RIDGES THROUGH ABOUT 10-11 PM BEFORE THE
GRADIENT STARTS TO SLOWLY WEAKEN. THEREFORE KEEPING THE WIND
ADVISORY GOING GIVEN ONE MORE EXPECTED SURGE IN SPEEDS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTRW BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE HAS SLIPPED TO
THE EAST WITH DOWNSLOPING HELPING TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW LEVELS EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE REMOVING ANY LINGERING POPS. IN THE
WEST...BEST UPSLOPE ALONG WITH MOISTURE LOOKS TO LINGER THROUGH
ABOUT MIDNIGHT...BUT MAINLY NW GREENBRIER WHERE ANOTHER INCH OR SO
POSSIBLE. THUS LOWERED POPS AND SNOWFALL SOUTH OF THERE BUT
HOLDING ONTO LOW CLOUDS LONGER PER LATEST MODELS AND TENDENCY FOR
NW FLOW TO LINGER MOISTURE. SOME OF THIS CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH A
FLURRY MAY SPILL OUT TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS
BEFORE BETTER DRYING DEVELOPS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
ALLOWING MOST AREAS TO CLEAR.

FREEZE WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE EAST WHERE SHOULD GET CLOSE TO
IF NOT A BIT BELOW FREEZING MOST SPOTS PENDING JUST HOW FAST WINDS
DIMINISH WHICH MAY NOT HAPPEN UNTIL ALMOST DAWN. OTRW RUNNING WITH
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S WITHIN THE FREEZE WARNING TO LOW/MID 20S
WEST.

HIGH PRESSURE WORKS FROM KY/OHIO OVERNIGHT TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND
NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL SWING TO TO
THE NORTHEAST THEN EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLEARING TONIGHT
WITH SUNNY SKIES WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THE SUN...TEMPS WILL BE COOLER
THAN WHAT WE HAVE HAD AS 8H TEMPS DROP TO -5 TO -12C TONIGHT THEN
MODIFY TO NEAR 0C BY WED AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROVIDE HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 50S...WITH 40S AROUND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...

ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW ENGLAND...LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS COMBINED WITH WED PM DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE TEENS...WILL
LEAD TO A VERY COLD THURSDAY MORNING...WITH SOME RECORD LOWS
THREATENED. DRY WEDGE WITH EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL PERSIST UNTIL
SURFACE WINDS ARE VEERED WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH/WEAK
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. TOWNS ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE WILL BE COOLER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BECAUSE OF THE
UPSLOPE FLOW BOTH DAYS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY...BUT LLVLS ARE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANYTHING BUT
SPRINKLES THROUGH SE WEST VA LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH WARMER
SATURDAY MORNING THAN WED/THURS MORNINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...

SURFACE HIGH FILLING IN BEHIND FRIDAY`S WEAK BOUNDARY EVENTUALLY
COVERS NEW ENGLAND AND THE ENTIRE MIDDLE ATLANTIC TO CLOSE THE
WEEKEND. AGAIN...THIS HIGH MAY EVENTUALLY PARK OVER NEW ENGLAND
SETTING UP ANOTHER DRY WEDGE PER THE ECMWF. THUS...SUNDAY MAY BE
COLDER THAN SATURDAY. THE GFS HAS ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH JUST OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST...WITH ELIMINATES THE EASTERLY COMPONENT/DRY
WEDGE...GIVING MORE OF A SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND A WARMER SUNDAY.
WILL GO BETWEEN THE MEX AND ECMWF MOS FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY. THE
PATTERN REMAINS DRY AND BENIGN...UNTIL NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT...WHEN
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON A FRONT WITH RAIN SHOWERS. WENT
WITH CHC POPS AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH THE MODEL AGREEMENT
AT THIS TIMERANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

WIND SPEEDS CONTINUE TO ABATE THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN. WINDS WILL VEER AS THE HIGH CONTINUES EAST...
BECOMING NORTHERLY BY SUNRISE...WHICH WILL HELP ERODE REMAINING
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE.
CLEAR SKIES WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND...IT WILL ALSO BUILD
SOUTHWARD...WEDGING AGAINST THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS.
WINDS WILL BECOME EAST NORTHEASTERLY DURING EARLY AFTERNOON...AND
WILL REMAIN SO INTO THURSDAY. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AROUND 10KT DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS...AND
WILL DROP TO 2KT TO 4KT AFTER SUNSET.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY...MAINTAINING VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK UNDER LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST
FLOW.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY BUT APPEARS
SLOW AND WEAK ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN VFR DURING THE DAY FOR NOW. THIS
SYSTEM MAY BRING MVFR CIGS TO THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY...ALONG WITH
A FEW SHOWERS. OTRW VFR FOR THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 200 AM EDT TUESDAY...

RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ON TUESDAY WILL CAUSE RISES ALONG
MAINSTEM RIVERS INTO MIDWEEK. MUCH OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN OCCURRED
ALONG THE DAN RIVER BASIN WITH LEVELS FORECASTED TO REACH MINOR
FLOOD STAGE AT SOUTH BOSTON WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHER LOCATIONS
ALONG THE DAN AROUND DANVILLE AND PACES AS WELL AS RANDOLPH ALONG
THE LOWER ROANOKE RIVER WILL SEE BANKFULL CONDITIONS.

A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AT SOUTH BOSTON INTO LATE
THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 358 PM EDT TUESDAY...

APRIL 16TH RECORD LOWS

ROANOKE 24F 1943...FORECASTED LOW 26F.
LYNCHBURG 27F 1943...FORECASTED LOW 27F.
DANVILLE 27F 1950...FORECASTED LOW 30F.
BLUEFIELD 23F 1962...FORECASTED LOW 21F.
BLACKSBURG 24F 2008...FORECASTED LOW 23F.
LEWISBURG 25F 2008...FORECASTED LOW 21F.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     VAZ022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ022>024-
     032>035-043>047-058-059.
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     NCZ003>006-019-020.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ003>006-019-
     020.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/RAB/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...KM
AVIATION...JH/NF
HYDROLOGY...JH
CLIMATE...JC/KM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 160559
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
159 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND
SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
IN MY 20 YEARS HERE AT AKQ...NOT SURE I HAVE SEEN ALL THESE EVENTS
OCCURRED ACROSS THE FA AS THEY HAVE DURING THE PAST FEW HRS. 1) A
30 DEGREE TEMP DROP IN 2 HRS...2) WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE
BAY GUSTING BETWEEN 60-70 MPH...3) SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...4) SOME
SLEET BEING REPORTED W & N OF RIC. JUST ANTHR DAY IN PARADISE.

CULPRIT IS A STRONG COLD FRONT NOW PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFFSHORE THRU THE NIGHT. MDT TO
OCNL HVY RAINFALL CONTINUES ALONG AND E OF I95 WITH PCPN QUICKLY
TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WILL TREND GRIDS WITH HIGH POPS
NEXT 1-3 HRS THEN QUICKLY END W-E AFTR MIDNIGHT WITH ALL SHORT
RANGE MODELS SHOWING A FAIRLY QUICK DRYING OF THE COLUMN RESULTING
IN DCRG CLDNS AND CLRG EXPECTED AFTR 06Z. SOME SLEET MAY MIX IN
AS PCPN ENDS...BUT WON`T INDCT THIS IN GRIDS ATTM. THE GUSTY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 30-40 WITH HIGHER GUSTS ALONG THE COAST NEXT
SVRL HRS THEN SLOWLY BEGIN TO DMNSH LATE. INLAND WINDS 20-30 MPH
WILL DMNSH LATE AS WELL. LSR OF THIS EVENING EVENTS TO FOLLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST DURING THE
SHORT TERM. DUE TO N TO NW WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...
CLOUDS FROM STREAMERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH SIDE HAMPTON ROADS ON WEDNESDAY...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S. ON WEDNESDAY...
TEMPERATURES MAY GET NO HIGHER THAN THE MID TO UPR 40S ALONG THE
COAST INCLUDING THE NORFOLK AND VIRGINIA BEACH AREA AND THE LOWER
EASTERN SHORE. LOWS THURSDAY MORNING AGAIN ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO
AROUND 30 OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS. SOME FROST IS POSSIBLE AS WELL
INCLUDING LOCATIONS THAT ONLY FALL TO THE LOW TO MID 30S. ANY NEEDED
HEADLINES WILL BE DEFERRED TO LATER SHIFTS.

TEMPERATURES WARM A BIT FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S OVER
INTERIOR AREAS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN TOWARD THE
COAST...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON A STALLED
BOUNDARY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRI NIGHT. THE LOW SHOULD TRACK NE
WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON SAT. THIS FEATURE MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO FAR SE VA/NE NC DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SWING
INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT AND SKIRT ACROSS NRN VA ON SAT. A
WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND MAY BRING A
BRIEF ROUND OF SHOWERS TO FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE FA (INCLUDING THE
MD/VA EASTERN SHORE) SAT AFTN/EARLY EVENING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE
AND DISSIPATING. THE SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW SAT
NIGHT...BUT THIS SHOULD OCCUR OVER NEW ENGLAND AND HAVE VERY LITTLE
IMPACT TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION SUN...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE BY SUN EVENING AS A RELATIVELY
FLAT (WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN INTO THE
AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SUBSEQUENT SFC
LOW TRAVELLING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA ON MON/TUE. GFS PRECIP-GENERATION AND
GENERAL MOVEMENT IS A BIT AGGRESSIVE VERSUS THE ECMWF...THEREFORE
TRIED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH THE POP FORECAST AND LIMITED
COVERAGE TO NO HIGHER THAN 40 PERCENT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRAIGHT-FORWARD SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS NEAR
NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COASTS). HIGHS SAT/SUN RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 65 DEGREES FAR NE TO 70
DEGREES SW. AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH TUE...THE TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY
IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM SECTOR DEVELOPS. WITH PRECIP
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA ON MON...INCREASING CIRRUS SHOULD KEEP
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S WEST OF I-95 WITH WARMER TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 70S EAST OF I-95 (MID-UPPER 60S MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS
TUE SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE CHES BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS. LOW TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE ON
MON/TUE NIGHT SHOULD ALSO BE WARM WITH READINGS IN THE 50S (OR ABOUT
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FARTHER OUT TO SEA THIS MORNG...AS
COLD HI PRES BLDS INTO THE AREA. BACK EDGE OF PCPN WILL MOVE WELL
OFF THE CST THIS MORNG...WITH ANY MVFR CONDITIONS QUICKLY BECOMING
VFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT N WINDS 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO ARND 30
KT THIS MORNG...TO BECOME NE AND DIMINISH OVR MOST OF THE AREA
LATER THIS AFTN INTO EARLY THIS EVENG...AS THE HI BLDS OVR THE
REGION THEN SHIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND. NE WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 10 TO
15 KT AND GUSTY AT ORF AND ECG TNGT THRU THU...AS THE HI
STRENGTHENS OVR NRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. NE OR
E FLO WILL PUSH SC DECK OF CLOUDS BACK INTO THE AREA LATE WED NGT
THRU THU.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNGS WILL CONTINUE AS PLANNED FOR ALL WTRS TDY INTO TNGT. A
STRONG COLD FRNT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE MID ATLANTIC
CST...WITH GUSTY SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRNT TO BE FOLLOWED BY
STRONGER NW FLOW BEHIND THE FRNT. EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 35-40 KT OVRNGT
AS THE FRNT PUSHES OFFSHORE AND HI PRES BLDS IN FROM THE W WITH
LARGE PRES RISES. WAVES WILL RISE TO 4 TO 6 FT OVR THE BAY...AND
SEAS WILL RISE TO 6 TO 9 FT ON THE CSTL WTRS. HI PRES CONTINUES TO
BLD IN THRU WED AFTN...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY. STILL HAVE THE GALES ENDING AT 7 AM FOR THE
BAY/RIVERS...AND HOLDING INTO THE ERLY AFTN FOR THE CST AND SOUND.
HI PRES SLIDES NE ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
WED NGT THRU FRI...AS A WEAK CSTL TROF DEVELOPS OFF THE SE CST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS THRU
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ021>024.
NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ012.
VA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ048-049-
     060>085-087>094.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630>632-
     634>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LSA
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...LSA
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MAS







000
FXUS61 KRNK 160400 AAA
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1200 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST BRINGING DRIER AND MUCH COLDER AIR OVERNIGHT. THIS AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN IN
CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY
BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOR EARLY IN THE
WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1150 PM EDT TUESDAY...

QUICK UPDATE TO EXPIRE THE GOING WIND ADVISORY AS SPEEDS CONTINUE
TO DECREASE AND SHOULD DIMINISH FURTHER AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTRW
FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK WITH UPSLOPE CLOUDS FADING ALONG WITH
ISOLATED -SHSN FAR NW AND SKIES CLEARING ACROSS THE FREEZE WARNING
REGION OUT EAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 850 PM EDT TUESDAY...

FRONT IS NOW WELL EAST OF THE REGION WITH COLD ADVECTION ONGOING
AS THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT AND BEST SUBSIDENCE MOVE IN DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A PERIOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
IN SPOTS ALONG THE RIDGES THROUGH ABOUT 10-11 PM BEFORE THE
GRADIENT STARTS TO SLOWLY WEAKEN. THEREFORE KEEPING THE WIND
ADVISORY GOING GIVEN ONE MORE EXPECTED SURGE IN SPEEDS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTRW BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE HAS SLIPPED TO
THE EAST WITH DOWNSLOPING HELPING TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW LEVELS EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE REMOVING ANY LINGERING POPS. IN THE
WEST...BEST UPSLOPE ALONG WITH MOISTURE LOOKS TO LINGER THROUGH
ABOUT MIDNIGHT...BUT MAINLY NW GREENBRIER WHERE ANOTHER INCH OR SO
POSSIBLE. THUS LOWERED POPS AND SNOWFALL SOUTH OF THERE BUT
HOLDING ONTO LOW CLOUDS LONGER PER LATEST MODELS AND TENDENCY FOR
NW FLOW TO LINGER MOISTURE. SOME OF THIS CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH A
FLURRY MAY SPILL OUT TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS
BEFORE BETTER DRYING DEVELOPS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
ALLOWING MOST AREAS TO CLEAR.

FREEZE WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE EAST WHERE SHOULD GET CLOSE TO
IF NOT A BIT BELOW FREEZING MOST SPOTS PENDING JUST HOW FAST WINDS
DIMINISH WHICH MAY NOT HAPPEN UNTIL ALMOST DAWN. OTRW RUNNING WITH
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S WITHIN THE FREEZE WARNING TO LOW/MID 20S
WEST.

HIGH PRESSURE WORKS FROM KY/OHIO OVERNIGHT TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND
NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL SWING TO TO
THE NORTHEAST THEN EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLEARING TONIGHT
WITH SUNNY SKIES WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THE SUN...TEMPS WILL BE COOLER
THAN WHAT WE HAVE HAD AS 8H TEMPS DROP TO -5 TO -12C TONIGHT THEN
MODIFY TO NEAR 0C BY WED AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROVIDE HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 50S...WITH 40S AROUND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...

ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW ENGLAND...LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS COMBINED WITH WED PM DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE TEENS...WILL
LEAD TO A VERY COLD THURSDAY MORNING...WITH SOME RECORD LOWS
THREATENED. DRY WEDGE WITH EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL PERSIST UNTIL
SURFACE WINDS ARE VEERED WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH/WEAK
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. TOWNS ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE WILL BE COOLER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BECAUSE OF THE
UPSLOPE FLOW BOTH DAYS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY...BUT LLVLS ARE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANYTHING BUT
SPRINKLES THROUGH SE WEST VA LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH WARMER
SATURDAY MORNING THAN WED/THURS MORNINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...

SURFACE HIGH FILLING IN BEHIND FRIDAY`S WEAK BOUNDARY EVENTUALLY
COVERS NEW ENGLAND AND THE ENTIRE MIDDLE ATLANTIC TO CLOSE THE
WEEKEND. AGAIN...THIS HIGH MAY EVENTUALLY PARK OVER NEW ENGLAND
SETTING UP ANOTHER DRY WEDGE PER THE ECMWF. THUS...SUNDAY MAY BE
COLDER THAN SATURDAY. THE GFS HAS ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH JUST OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST...WITH ELIMINATES THE EASTERLY COMPONENT/DRY
WEDGE...GIVING MORE OF A SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND A WARMER SUNDAY.
WILL GO BETWEEN THE MEX AND ECMWF MOS FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY. THE
PATTERN REMAINS DRY AND BENIGN...UNTIL NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT...WHEN
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON A FRONT WITH RAIN SHOWERS. WENT
WITH CHC POPS AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH THE MODEL AGREEMENT
AT THIS TIMERANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 635 PM EDT TUESDAY...

CEILINGS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE ACROSS THE REGION AS DRIER
AIR SWINGS IN FROM THE SW EXCEPT ACROSS THE SE WVA LOCATIONS
WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW KEEPING MVFR TO OCNL IFR IN LOW CLOUDS. POST
FRONTAL RAINFALL REMAINS SLOW TO EXIT THE EAST BUT STILL APPEARS
MOST PRECIP WILL BE EAST OF THE LYH-DAN CORRIDOR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET IF NOT SOONER. OTRW EXPECTING A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN
CLOUD BASES THIS EVENING WITH ALL SITES EXCLUDING BLF/LWB SCATTERING
OUT OR GOING TOTALLY CLEAR BY MIDNIGHT. APPEARS MVFR TO VFR CIGS
MAY HOLD ESPCLY AROUND BLF UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING HOURS PER
LATEST NAM. NW WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE STRONG INTO THIS
EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT AND BECOMING LIGHT
TOWARD DAWN. APPEARS COULD STILL SEE GUSTS TO 35-40 KTS IN A SMALL
WINDOW THIS EVENING ESPCLY AROUND ROA-BCB AS SKIES CLEAR AND
STRONGER MIXING DEVELOPS WITH THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT
CROSSING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND LINGERS
INTO FRIDAY KEEPING WIDESPREAD VFR IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK UNDER LIGHT EAST TO NE FLOW.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY BUT APPEARS
SLOW AND WEAK ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN VFR DURING THE DAY FOR NOW. THIS
SYSTEM MAY BRING MVFR CIGS TO THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY ALONG WITH A
FEW SHOWERS. OTRW VFR FOR THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING
THIS SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 640 PM EDT TUESDAY...

HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE RISES ALONG MAINSTEM RIVERS INTO MIDWEEK.
MUCH OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN OCCURRED ALONG THE DAN RIVER BASIN WITH
LEVELS FORECASTED TO REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT SOUTH BOSTON
WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHER LOCATIONS ALONG THE DAN AROUND DANVILLE
AND PACES AS WELL AS RANDOLPH ALONG THE LOWER ROANOKE RIVER WILL
SEE BANKFULL CONDITIONS. A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
AT SOUTH BOSTON INTO LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 358 PM EDT TUESDAY...

APRIL 16TH RECORD LOWS

ROANOKE 24F 1943...FORECASTED LOW 26F.
LYNCHBURG 27F 1943...FORECASTED LOW 27F.
DANVILLE 27F 1950...FORECASTED LOW 30F.
BLUEFIELD 23F 1962...FORECASTED LOW 21F.
BLACKSBURG 24F 2008...FORECASTED LOW 23F.
LEWISBURG 25F 2008...FORECASTED LOW 21F.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VAZ022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ022>024-
     032>035-043>047-058-059.
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NCZ003>006-019-020.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ003>006-
     019-020.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/RAB/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...KM
AVIATION...JH/RAB/WP
HYDROLOGY...JH
CLIMATE...JC/KM




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