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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210306
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1106 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA AND OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 89 WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 1000 PM
THIS EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA AND
SHOWERS IN GENERAL HAVE DIMINISHED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF AND
COME TO AN END SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE SFC
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SITS FROM NCNTRL VA DOWN INTO SW/SCNTRL VA
LATE THIS EVENING AND WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY SUNRISE TUESDAY
MORNING. AREAS OF CLEARING CAN ALREADY BE SEEN OVER CNTRL VA INTO
CNTRL/WRN NC...WHICH FURTHER SUPPORTS AN END TO SHOWER ACTIVITY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS MAY FILL IN BRIEFLY OVERNIGHT BUT THEN
CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DUE TO DRYING DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY
FLOW. TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
UPDATE...THEREFORE EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 50S WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95 AND IN THE MID-UPPER 50S EWD (LOWER 60S AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STACKED UPPER LOW ANCHORS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SRN
CANADA THRU THE SHORT TERM PERIOD THANKS TO BLOCKY FLOW OVER THE
HIGH LATITUDES. IN WAKE OF TONIGHTS (MON NIGHTS) COLD FRONT...HIGH
PRESSURE FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE SE STATES TUES...EXTENDING
NEWD OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS AND A
WLY WIND. HIGHS FORECAST IN THE UPPER 60S E TO LOW 70S W UNDER A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL ROUND
THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW...WITH THE FIRST ROUNDING THE BASE TUES
NIGHT- WEDS. ASSOCIATED FAST MOVING COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE OH
VALLEY WEDS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE SE COAST WEDS...WITH
INCREASING SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA. WEAK FRONT
REACHES THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS WEDS AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE- CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NRN LOCAL AREA WEDS
AFTERNOON...CLOSEST TO BEST MOISTURE/DYNAMICS. HIGHS WEDS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 70S. FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
WEDS NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS ALONG THE
COAST WEDS NIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA EARLY THURS MORNING. WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY THURS MORNING AS SRN STREAM ENERGY
TRAVERSES THE GULF STATES. GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS KEEP MEASURABLE
PRECIP SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA THURS...BUT NAM/SREF SOLUTIONS
SPREAD PRECIP INTO S AND SE VA/NE NC. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THURS ACROSS THOSE AREAS BASED ON UNCERTAINTY. COOLER THURS
WITH WNW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA THURS NIGHT FOLLOWED BY COOL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW. DRY WITH LOWS BOTH THURS AND FRI
NIGHTS 40-50 XCPT A FEW U30S NWRN MOST CNTYS. HIGHS FRI M-U60S.

NXT SYSTM PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE CAROLINAS SAT. ECMWF SOMEWHAT
FRTHR SOUTH WITH ITS MOISTURE FIELDS THAN GFS. BEST SPRT FOR PCPN
WILL BE ACROSS SRN HALF OF FA WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED.
SLGHT CHC ACROSS THE NRTH. COOL SAT WITH HIGHS 60-65. PCPN ENDS SAT
EVE AS SYSTM EXITS OFF THE COAST. LOWS IN THE 40S.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES ERLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANY PCPN
STAYING SOUTH OF FA. DRY WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND. HIGHS SUN
IN THE L-M60S. LOWS SUN NIGHT IN THE 40S. HIGHS MON M-U60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...THE COLD FRONT WAS SITUATED OVER WEST VIRGINIA AND IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 10 AND 14Z. CONVECTION HAS
BEEN RATHER ISOLATED SO FAR AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING CUT OFF...
WIDESPREAD TSTMS ARE UNLIKELY. WITH TSTMS OVER MD/NRN VA MORE
WIDESPREAD...SHOWERS MAY REACH SBY AND HAVE THEM THERE AFT 04Z.
CANNOT RULE OUT A TSTM OVERNIGHT BUT NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAF.

S WINDS GRADUALLY VEER OVERNIGHT BECOMING W/NW FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AND
BACK TO THE WEST ON TUESDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS MAINLY AT RIC
AND SBY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
10 PM UPDATE...SCA HOISTED FOR THE BAY AND LOWER JAMES FOR S
WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND 4 TO 5 FT WAVES AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WITH THE SCA CURRENTLY SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 4 AM.

SEAS REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT...SO WILL CONT THE SCA HEADLINES WITH
AN EMPHASIS ON SUBSIDING CONDITIONS THROUGH TUES. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. SW WINDS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST BUT REMAIN BLO 20 KTS...SO NO HEADLINES (WIND
WISE) XPCTD BEHIND THE FRNT.

NEXT TROF / FRONT PROGGED ACROSS THE WATERS WED NIGHT / ERLY
THURSDAY SWITCHING THE WNDS TO A NW THEN N DIRECTION. ONCE
AGAIN...SURGE BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY NOT STRONG ENUF TO GENERATE
HEADLINES. NW FLOW SETS UP BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING BLO SCA LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
OVERNIGHT RAINFALL OF ONE TO ONE HALF INCH RESULTED IN RISES OVER
AREA RIVERS DURING THE DAY. MINOR FLOODING ON THE RIVANNA RIVER AT
PALMYRA SHOULD END BEFORE MIDNIGHT. RISES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT FOR THE JAMES RIVER...WITH THE RICHMOND WESTHAM GAUGE
APPROACHING MINOR FLOODING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THIS EVENING WILL HELP MAINTAIN ~1.0 FT
ANOMALIES IN THE MIDDLE BAY THROUGH TONIGHT. BISHOPS HEAD WILL
APPROACH THE MINOR THRESHOLD LATE TONIGHT. A COASTAL FLOOD
STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHER LOCATIONS IN
THE MIDDLE BAY SHOULD STAY BELOW MINOR THRESHOLDS. TIDAL
ANOMALIES WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES
OFFSHORE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/SAM
NEAR TERM...BMD/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ/MPR/LSA
HYDROLOGY...AKQ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210306
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1106 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA AND OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 89 WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 1000 PM
THIS EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA AND
SHOWERS IN GENERAL HAVE DIMINISHED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF AND
COME TO AN END SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE SFC
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SITS FROM NCNTRL VA DOWN INTO SW/SCNTRL VA
LATE THIS EVENING AND WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY SUNRISE TUESDAY
MORNING. AREAS OF CLEARING CAN ALREADY BE SEEN OVER CNTRL VA INTO
CNTRL/WRN NC...WHICH FURTHER SUPPORTS AN END TO SHOWER ACTIVITY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS MAY FILL IN BRIEFLY OVERNIGHT BUT THEN
CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DUE TO DRYING DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY
FLOW. TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
UPDATE...THEREFORE EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 50S WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95 AND IN THE MID-UPPER 50S EWD (LOWER 60S AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STACKED UPPER LOW ANCHORS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SRN
CANADA THRU THE SHORT TERM PERIOD THANKS TO BLOCKY FLOW OVER THE
HIGH LATITUDES. IN WAKE OF TONIGHTS (MON NIGHTS) COLD FRONT...HIGH
PRESSURE FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE SE STATES TUES...EXTENDING
NEWD OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS AND A
WLY WIND. HIGHS FORECAST IN THE UPPER 60S E TO LOW 70S W UNDER A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL ROUND
THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW...WITH THE FIRST ROUNDING THE BASE TUES
NIGHT- WEDS. ASSOCIATED FAST MOVING COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE OH
VALLEY WEDS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE SE COAST WEDS...WITH
INCREASING SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA. WEAK FRONT
REACHES THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS WEDS AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE- CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NRN LOCAL AREA WEDS
AFTERNOON...CLOSEST TO BEST MOISTURE/DYNAMICS. HIGHS WEDS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 70S. FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
WEDS NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS ALONG THE
COAST WEDS NIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA EARLY THURS MORNING. WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY THURS MORNING AS SRN STREAM ENERGY
TRAVERSES THE GULF STATES. GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS KEEP MEASURABLE
PRECIP SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA THURS...BUT NAM/SREF SOLUTIONS
SPREAD PRECIP INTO S AND SE VA/NE NC. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THURS ACROSS THOSE AREAS BASED ON UNCERTAINTY. COOLER THURS
WITH WNW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA THURS NIGHT FOLLOWED BY COOL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW. DRY WITH LOWS BOTH THURS AND FRI
NIGHTS 40-50 XCPT A FEW U30S NWRN MOST CNTYS. HIGHS FRI M-U60S.

NXT SYSTM PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE CAROLINAS SAT. ECMWF SOMEWHAT
FRTHR SOUTH WITH ITS MOISTURE FIELDS THAN GFS. BEST SPRT FOR PCPN
WILL BE ACROSS SRN HALF OF FA WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED.
SLGHT CHC ACROSS THE NRTH. COOL SAT WITH HIGHS 60-65. PCPN ENDS SAT
EVE AS SYSTM EXITS OFF THE COAST. LOWS IN THE 40S.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES ERLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANY PCPN
STAYING SOUTH OF FA. DRY WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND. HIGHS SUN
IN THE L-M60S. LOWS SUN NIGHT IN THE 40S. HIGHS MON M-U60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...THE COLD FRONT WAS SITUATED OVER WEST VIRGINIA AND IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 10 AND 14Z. CONVECTION HAS
BEEN RATHER ISOLATED SO FAR AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING CUT OFF...
WIDESPREAD TSTMS ARE UNLIKELY. WITH TSTMS OVER MD/NRN VA MORE
WIDESPREAD...SHOWERS MAY REACH SBY AND HAVE THEM THERE AFT 04Z.
CANNOT RULE OUT A TSTM OVERNIGHT BUT NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAF.

S WINDS GRADUALLY VEER OVERNIGHT BECOMING W/NW FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AND
BACK TO THE WEST ON TUESDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS MAINLY AT RIC
AND SBY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
10 PM UPDATE...SCA HOISTED FOR THE BAY AND LOWER JAMES FOR S
WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND 4 TO 5 FT WAVES AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WITH THE SCA CURRENTLY SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 4 AM.

SEAS REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT...SO WILL CONT THE SCA HEADLINES WITH
AN EMPHASIS ON SUBSIDING CONDITIONS THROUGH TUES. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. SW WINDS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST BUT REMAIN BLO 20 KTS...SO NO HEADLINES (WIND
WISE) XPCTD BEHIND THE FRNT.

NEXT TROF / FRONT PROGGED ACROSS THE WATERS WED NIGHT / ERLY
THURSDAY SWITCHING THE WNDS TO A NW THEN N DIRECTION. ONCE
AGAIN...SURGE BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY NOT STRONG ENUF TO GENERATE
HEADLINES. NW FLOW SETS UP BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING BLO SCA LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
OVERNIGHT RAINFALL OF ONE TO ONE HALF INCH RESULTED IN RISES OVER
AREA RIVERS DURING THE DAY. MINOR FLOODING ON THE RIVANNA RIVER AT
PALMYRA SHOULD END BEFORE MIDNIGHT. RISES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT FOR THE JAMES RIVER...WITH THE RICHMOND WESTHAM GAUGE
APPROACHING MINOR FLOODING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THIS EVENING WILL HELP MAINTAIN ~1.0 FT
ANOMALIES IN THE MIDDLE BAY THROUGH TONIGHT. BISHOPS HEAD WILL
APPROACH THE MINOR THRESHOLD LATE TONIGHT. A COASTAL FLOOD
STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHER LOCATIONS IN
THE MIDDLE BAY SHOULD STAY BELOW MINOR THRESHOLDS. TIDAL
ANOMALIES WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES
OFFSHORE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/SAM
NEAR TERM...BMD/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ/MPR/LSA
HYDROLOGY...AKQ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210306
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1106 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA AND OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 89 WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 1000 PM
THIS EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA AND
SHOWERS IN GENERAL HAVE DIMINISHED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF AND
COME TO AN END SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE SFC
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SITS FROM NCNTRL VA DOWN INTO SW/SCNTRL VA
LATE THIS EVENING AND WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY SUNRISE TUESDAY
MORNING. AREAS OF CLEARING CAN ALREADY BE SEEN OVER CNTRL VA INTO
CNTRL/WRN NC...WHICH FURTHER SUPPORTS AN END TO SHOWER ACTIVITY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS MAY FILL IN BRIEFLY OVERNIGHT BUT THEN
CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DUE TO DRYING DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY
FLOW. TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
UPDATE...THEREFORE EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 50S WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95 AND IN THE MID-UPPER 50S EWD (LOWER 60S AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STACKED UPPER LOW ANCHORS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SRN
CANADA THRU THE SHORT TERM PERIOD THANKS TO BLOCKY FLOW OVER THE
HIGH LATITUDES. IN WAKE OF TONIGHTS (MON NIGHTS) COLD FRONT...HIGH
PRESSURE FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE SE STATES TUES...EXTENDING
NEWD OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS AND A
WLY WIND. HIGHS FORECAST IN THE UPPER 60S E TO LOW 70S W UNDER A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL ROUND
THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW...WITH THE FIRST ROUNDING THE BASE TUES
NIGHT- WEDS. ASSOCIATED FAST MOVING COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE OH
VALLEY WEDS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE SE COAST WEDS...WITH
INCREASING SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA. WEAK FRONT
REACHES THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS WEDS AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE- CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NRN LOCAL AREA WEDS
AFTERNOON...CLOSEST TO BEST MOISTURE/DYNAMICS. HIGHS WEDS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 70S. FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
WEDS NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS ALONG THE
COAST WEDS NIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA EARLY THURS MORNING. WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY THURS MORNING AS SRN STREAM ENERGY
TRAVERSES THE GULF STATES. GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS KEEP MEASURABLE
PRECIP SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA THURS...BUT NAM/SREF SOLUTIONS
SPREAD PRECIP INTO S AND SE VA/NE NC. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THURS ACROSS THOSE AREAS BASED ON UNCERTAINTY. COOLER THURS
WITH WNW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA THURS NIGHT FOLLOWED BY COOL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW. DRY WITH LOWS BOTH THURS AND FRI
NIGHTS 40-50 XCPT A FEW U30S NWRN MOST CNTYS. HIGHS FRI M-U60S.

NXT SYSTM PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE CAROLINAS SAT. ECMWF SOMEWHAT
FRTHR SOUTH WITH ITS MOISTURE FIELDS THAN GFS. BEST SPRT FOR PCPN
WILL BE ACROSS SRN HALF OF FA WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED.
SLGHT CHC ACROSS THE NRTH. COOL SAT WITH HIGHS 60-65. PCPN ENDS SAT
EVE AS SYSTM EXITS OFF THE COAST. LOWS IN THE 40S.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES ERLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANY PCPN
STAYING SOUTH OF FA. DRY WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND. HIGHS SUN
IN THE L-M60S. LOWS SUN NIGHT IN THE 40S. HIGHS MON M-U60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...THE COLD FRONT WAS SITUATED OVER WEST VIRGINIA AND IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 10 AND 14Z. CONVECTION HAS
BEEN RATHER ISOLATED SO FAR AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING CUT OFF...
WIDESPREAD TSTMS ARE UNLIKELY. WITH TSTMS OVER MD/NRN VA MORE
WIDESPREAD...SHOWERS MAY REACH SBY AND HAVE THEM THERE AFT 04Z.
CANNOT RULE OUT A TSTM OVERNIGHT BUT NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAF.

S WINDS GRADUALLY VEER OVERNIGHT BECOMING W/NW FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AND
BACK TO THE WEST ON TUESDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS MAINLY AT RIC
AND SBY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
10 PM UPDATE...SCA HOISTED FOR THE BAY AND LOWER JAMES FOR S
WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND 4 TO 5 FT WAVES AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WITH THE SCA CURRENTLY SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 4 AM.

SEAS REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT...SO WILL CONT THE SCA HEADLINES WITH
AN EMPHASIS ON SUBSIDING CONDITIONS THROUGH TUES. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. SW WINDS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST BUT REMAIN BLO 20 KTS...SO NO HEADLINES (WIND
WISE) XPCTD BEHIND THE FRNT.

NEXT TROF / FRONT PROGGED ACROSS THE WATERS WED NIGHT / ERLY
THURSDAY SWITCHING THE WNDS TO A NW THEN N DIRECTION. ONCE
AGAIN...SURGE BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY NOT STRONG ENUF TO GENERATE
HEADLINES. NW FLOW SETS UP BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING BLO SCA LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
OVERNIGHT RAINFALL OF ONE TO ONE HALF INCH RESULTED IN RISES OVER
AREA RIVERS DURING THE DAY. MINOR FLOODING ON THE RIVANNA RIVER AT
PALMYRA SHOULD END BEFORE MIDNIGHT. RISES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT FOR THE JAMES RIVER...WITH THE RICHMOND WESTHAM GAUGE
APPROACHING MINOR FLOODING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THIS EVENING WILL HELP MAINTAIN ~1.0 FT
ANOMALIES IN THE MIDDLE BAY THROUGH TONIGHT. BISHOPS HEAD WILL
APPROACH THE MINOR THRESHOLD LATE TONIGHT. A COASTAL FLOOD
STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHER LOCATIONS IN
THE MIDDLE BAY SHOULD STAY BELOW MINOR THRESHOLDS. TIDAL
ANOMALIES WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES
OFFSHORE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/SAM
NEAR TERM...BMD/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ/MPR/LSA
HYDROLOGY...AKQ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210306
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1106 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA AND OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 89 WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 1000 PM
THIS EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA AND
SHOWERS IN GENERAL HAVE DIMINISHED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF AND
COME TO AN END SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE SFC
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SITS FROM NCNTRL VA DOWN INTO SW/SCNTRL VA
LATE THIS EVENING AND WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY SUNRISE TUESDAY
MORNING. AREAS OF CLEARING CAN ALREADY BE SEEN OVER CNTRL VA INTO
CNTRL/WRN NC...WHICH FURTHER SUPPORTS AN END TO SHOWER ACTIVITY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS MAY FILL IN BRIEFLY OVERNIGHT BUT THEN
CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DUE TO DRYING DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY
FLOW. TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
UPDATE...THEREFORE EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 50S WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95 AND IN THE MID-UPPER 50S EWD (LOWER 60S AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STACKED UPPER LOW ANCHORS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SRN
CANADA THRU THE SHORT TERM PERIOD THANKS TO BLOCKY FLOW OVER THE
HIGH LATITUDES. IN WAKE OF TONIGHTS (MON NIGHTS) COLD FRONT...HIGH
PRESSURE FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE SE STATES TUES...EXTENDING
NEWD OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS AND A
WLY WIND. HIGHS FORECAST IN THE UPPER 60S E TO LOW 70S W UNDER A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL ROUND
THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW...WITH THE FIRST ROUNDING THE BASE TUES
NIGHT- WEDS. ASSOCIATED FAST MOVING COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE OH
VALLEY WEDS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE SE COAST WEDS...WITH
INCREASING SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA. WEAK FRONT
REACHES THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS WEDS AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE- CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NRN LOCAL AREA WEDS
AFTERNOON...CLOSEST TO BEST MOISTURE/DYNAMICS. HIGHS WEDS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 70S. FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
WEDS NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS ALONG THE
COAST WEDS NIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA EARLY THURS MORNING. WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY THURS MORNING AS SRN STREAM ENERGY
TRAVERSES THE GULF STATES. GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS KEEP MEASURABLE
PRECIP SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA THURS...BUT NAM/SREF SOLUTIONS
SPREAD PRECIP INTO S AND SE VA/NE NC. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THURS ACROSS THOSE AREAS BASED ON UNCERTAINTY. COOLER THURS
WITH WNW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA THURS NIGHT FOLLOWED BY COOL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW. DRY WITH LOWS BOTH THURS AND FRI
NIGHTS 40-50 XCPT A FEW U30S NWRN MOST CNTYS. HIGHS FRI M-U60S.

NXT SYSTM PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE CAROLINAS SAT. ECMWF SOMEWHAT
FRTHR SOUTH WITH ITS MOISTURE FIELDS THAN GFS. BEST SPRT FOR PCPN
WILL BE ACROSS SRN HALF OF FA WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED.
SLGHT CHC ACROSS THE NRTH. COOL SAT WITH HIGHS 60-65. PCPN ENDS SAT
EVE AS SYSTM EXITS OFF THE COAST. LOWS IN THE 40S.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES ERLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANY PCPN
STAYING SOUTH OF FA. DRY WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND. HIGHS SUN
IN THE L-M60S. LOWS SUN NIGHT IN THE 40S. HIGHS MON M-U60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...THE COLD FRONT WAS SITUATED OVER WEST VIRGINIA AND IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 10 AND 14Z. CONVECTION HAS
BEEN RATHER ISOLATED SO FAR AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING CUT OFF...
WIDESPREAD TSTMS ARE UNLIKELY. WITH TSTMS OVER MD/NRN VA MORE
WIDESPREAD...SHOWERS MAY REACH SBY AND HAVE THEM THERE AFT 04Z.
CANNOT RULE OUT A TSTM OVERNIGHT BUT NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAF.

S WINDS GRADUALLY VEER OVERNIGHT BECOMING W/NW FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AND
BACK TO THE WEST ON TUESDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS MAINLY AT RIC
AND SBY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
10 PM UPDATE...SCA HOISTED FOR THE BAY AND LOWER JAMES FOR S
WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND 4 TO 5 FT WAVES AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WITH THE SCA CURRENTLY SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 4 AM.

SEAS REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT...SO WILL CONT THE SCA HEADLINES WITH
AN EMPHASIS ON SUBSIDING CONDITIONS THROUGH TUES. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. SW WINDS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST BUT REMAIN BLO 20 KTS...SO NO HEADLINES (WIND
WISE) XPCTD BEHIND THE FRNT.

NEXT TROF / FRONT PROGGED ACROSS THE WATERS WED NIGHT / ERLY
THURSDAY SWITCHING THE WNDS TO A NW THEN N DIRECTION. ONCE
AGAIN...SURGE BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY NOT STRONG ENUF TO GENERATE
HEADLINES. NW FLOW SETS UP BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING BLO SCA LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
OVERNIGHT RAINFALL OF ONE TO ONE HALF INCH RESULTED IN RISES OVER
AREA RIVERS DURING THE DAY. MINOR FLOODING ON THE RIVANNA RIVER AT
PALMYRA SHOULD END BEFORE MIDNIGHT. RISES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT FOR THE JAMES RIVER...WITH THE RICHMOND WESTHAM GAUGE
APPROACHING MINOR FLOODING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THIS EVENING WILL HELP MAINTAIN ~1.0 FT
ANOMALIES IN THE MIDDLE BAY THROUGH TONIGHT. BISHOPS HEAD WILL
APPROACH THE MINOR THRESHOLD LATE TONIGHT. A COASTAL FLOOD
STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHER LOCATIONS IN
THE MIDDLE BAY SHOULD STAY BELOW MINOR THRESHOLDS. TIDAL
ANOMALIES WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES
OFFSHORE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/SAM
NEAR TERM...BMD/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ/MPR/LSA
HYDROLOGY...AKQ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ


  [top]

000
FXUS61 KLWX 210252
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1052 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AN UPPER LOW WILL THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO
NEW ENGLAND THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TORNADO WATCH WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 10 PM EVERYWHERE EXCEPT
MARINE ZONES WITH DIMINISHING SEVERE THREAT. SCT SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO OCCUR AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
REGION...MAINLY THRU 07Z. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING GOOD
AMT OF DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...SO EXPECTING PCPN TO
END WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.

DP UPR LOW WL RESIDE NORTH OF THE GRTLKS TMRW...WHICH WL PROVIDE
FAST MID-LVL FLOW. KEEPING A DRY FCST W/ CLDY PERIODS AS IMPULSES
ZIP THRU THE FLOW. DOWNSLOPING WL PROVIDE THE WARMING IN SPITE OF
CAA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
NOT MUCH OF A BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS THE MID-ATLC STAYS JUST ON
THE OUTER FRINGE OF A LARGE UPPER GREAT LAKES TROUGH. ONE OF THE
WEAKER VORTS SLIDING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL SLIDE INTO
THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE APLCNS LATE TUE NIGHT. LITTLE MORE THAN
COOLER AIR WILL MAKE IT OVER THE MTNS...W/ THE MOISTURE DISSIPATING
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HEADING INTO EARLY WED...A STRONGER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING WELL TO OUR NORTH WHICH WILL ALSO
STRENGTHEN THE INCOMING COLD FRONT.

GUSTY SW WINDS WILL ARRIVE BEFORE ANY PRECIP E OF THE APLCNS...AND
GRADUALLY PULL UP OUR COOL TEMPS FROM OVERNIGHT BACK INTO A WARMER
REGIME BY MIDDAY. UNLIKE TODAY`S CONDITIONS...THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE
IS NOT EXPECTED TO MUSTER UP MUCH INSTABILITY. THE SRN HALF OF THE
CWA MAY SEE SOME WEAK CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA WILL SEE AT SOLID CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE
AVG FOR THE VA/MD PIEDMONT. QPF FAIRLY LIGHT FOR THIS PASSAGE AND A
RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF THE MID AFTN TO EVE. BY LATE EVE...MOST
OF THE PRECIP WILL BE SLIDING OUT OF THE SE PORTION OF THE CWA AND
CLOUDS WILL ALLOW EXIT OFF THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A COLD UPPER-LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM STALLED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS...WITH
PERSISTENT CHILLY WEST OR NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION.

A TROUGH MAY BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA SATURDAY...BUT OTHER
THAN THAT IT LOOKS MAINLY DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL /I.E. 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL/ THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
HIGH STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
40S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISO SHOWER/TSTM
STILL PSBL THRU 07Z AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS THERE AFTER. ANY TSTM COULD PRODUCE A GUST UP TO 35 KT.
OUTSIDE OF PCPN...WINDS MAINLY SLY AROUND 10 KTS...BCMG WLY LATE
TONIGHT. WIND SHIFT COULD BE DIFFERENT 1-2 HRS.

WLY WINDS OVNGT THRU TUE...W/ GUSTS UP TO 25 KT DURING THE DAY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWING THRU ON WED AFTN. GUSTY SW WINDS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AND MAINLY BRIEF/SCTD SHOWER ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT
SLIDE THRU DURING THE 2ND HALF OF THE DAY.

WLY FLOW 10 KT OR SO W/ MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THU-SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS...WITH THE UPPER TIDAL
POTOAMC ENDING AFTR 05Z. GUSTS INCREASE AGAIN AFTR DAYBREAK
TUES...SO SCA WILL BE BACK IN EFFECT FOR UPPER TIDAL
POTOMAC...ALONG WITH THE REMAINING WATERS.

SOLID SCA WINDS POSSIBLE ON WED AHEAD OF AND ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT
IS EXPECTED TO SWING THRU THE WATERS BY LATE EVE.

SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE IN WLY SURGE BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THURSDAY...THEN LIGHTER FLOW BELOW SCA CRITERIA LIKELY FRIDAY-
SATURDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OCCURRING ALONG THE POTOMAC RIVER NEAR
ALEXANDRIA...SO HAVE ISSUED AN ADVISORY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS THRU
MIDNIGHT TO HANDLE THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE. EXPECTING LVLS TO DROP
THERE AFTER.

THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
WITH TIDE LVLS BARELY REACHING ACTION STAGE AT THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE.

WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE W FOR TUES...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
FURTHER CONCERNS AFTER TONIGHTS CYCLE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ053-
     054.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ535-536.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ535-
     536.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ535.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KLWX 210252
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1052 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AN UPPER LOW WILL THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO
NEW ENGLAND THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TORNADO WATCH WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 10 PM EVERYWHERE EXCEPT
MARINE ZONES WITH DIMINISHING SEVERE THREAT. SCT SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO OCCUR AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
REGION...MAINLY THRU 07Z. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING GOOD
AMT OF DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...SO EXPECTING PCPN TO
END WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.

DP UPR LOW WL RESIDE NORTH OF THE GRTLKS TMRW...WHICH WL PROVIDE
FAST MID-LVL FLOW. KEEPING A DRY FCST W/ CLDY PERIODS AS IMPULSES
ZIP THRU THE FLOW. DOWNSLOPING WL PROVIDE THE WARMING IN SPITE OF
CAA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
NOT MUCH OF A BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS THE MID-ATLC STAYS JUST ON
THE OUTER FRINGE OF A LARGE UPPER GREAT LAKES TROUGH. ONE OF THE
WEAKER VORTS SLIDING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL SLIDE INTO
THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE APLCNS LATE TUE NIGHT. LITTLE MORE THAN
COOLER AIR WILL MAKE IT OVER THE MTNS...W/ THE MOISTURE DISSIPATING
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HEADING INTO EARLY WED...A STRONGER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING WELL TO OUR NORTH WHICH WILL ALSO
STRENGTHEN THE INCOMING COLD FRONT.

GUSTY SW WINDS WILL ARRIVE BEFORE ANY PRECIP E OF THE APLCNS...AND
GRADUALLY PULL UP OUR COOL TEMPS FROM OVERNIGHT BACK INTO A WARMER
REGIME BY MIDDAY. UNLIKE TODAY`S CONDITIONS...THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE
IS NOT EXPECTED TO MUSTER UP MUCH INSTABILITY. THE SRN HALF OF THE
CWA MAY SEE SOME WEAK CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA WILL SEE AT SOLID CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE
AVG FOR THE VA/MD PIEDMONT. QPF FAIRLY LIGHT FOR THIS PASSAGE AND A
RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF THE MID AFTN TO EVE. BY LATE EVE...MOST
OF THE PRECIP WILL BE SLIDING OUT OF THE SE PORTION OF THE CWA AND
CLOUDS WILL ALLOW EXIT OFF THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A COLD UPPER-LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM STALLED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS...WITH
PERSISTENT CHILLY WEST OR NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION.

A TROUGH MAY BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA SATURDAY...BUT OTHER
THAN THAT IT LOOKS MAINLY DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL /I.E. 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL/ THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
HIGH STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
40S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISO SHOWER/TSTM
STILL PSBL THRU 07Z AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS THERE AFTER. ANY TSTM COULD PRODUCE A GUST UP TO 35 KT.
OUTSIDE OF PCPN...WINDS MAINLY SLY AROUND 10 KTS...BCMG WLY LATE
TONIGHT. WIND SHIFT COULD BE DIFFERENT 1-2 HRS.

WLY WINDS OVNGT THRU TUE...W/ GUSTS UP TO 25 KT DURING THE DAY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWING THRU ON WED AFTN. GUSTY SW WINDS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AND MAINLY BRIEF/SCTD SHOWER ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT
SLIDE THRU DURING THE 2ND HALF OF THE DAY.

WLY FLOW 10 KT OR SO W/ MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THU-SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS...WITH THE UPPER TIDAL
POTOAMC ENDING AFTR 05Z. GUSTS INCREASE AGAIN AFTR DAYBREAK
TUES...SO SCA WILL BE BACK IN EFFECT FOR UPPER TIDAL
POTOMAC...ALONG WITH THE REMAINING WATERS.

SOLID SCA WINDS POSSIBLE ON WED AHEAD OF AND ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT
IS EXPECTED TO SWING THRU THE WATERS BY LATE EVE.

SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE IN WLY SURGE BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THURSDAY...THEN LIGHTER FLOW BELOW SCA CRITERIA LIKELY FRIDAY-
SATURDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OCCURRING ALONG THE POTOMAC RIVER NEAR
ALEXANDRIA...SO HAVE ISSUED AN ADVISORY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS THRU
MIDNIGHT TO HANDLE THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE. EXPECTING LVLS TO DROP
THERE AFTER.

THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
WITH TIDE LVLS BARELY REACHING ACTION STAGE AT THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE.

WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE W FOR TUES...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
FURTHER CONCERNS AFTER TONIGHTS CYCLE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ053-
     054.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ535-536.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ535-
     536.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ535.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KLWX 210252
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1052 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AN UPPER LOW WILL THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO
NEW ENGLAND THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TORNADO WATCH WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 10 PM EVERYWHERE EXCEPT
MARINE ZONES WITH DIMINISHING SEVERE THREAT. SCT SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO OCCUR AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
REGION...MAINLY THRU 07Z. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING GOOD
AMT OF DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...SO EXPECTING PCPN TO
END WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.

DP UPR LOW WL RESIDE NORTH OF THE GRTLKS TMRW...WHICH WL PROVIDE
FAST MID-LVL FLOW. KEEPING A DRY FCST W/ CLDY PERIODS AS IMPULSES
ZIP THRU THE FLOW. DOWNSLOPING WL PROVIDE THE WARMING IN SPITE OF
CAA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
NOT MUCH OF A BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS THE MID-ATLC STAYS JUST ON
THE OUTER FRINGE OF A LARGE UPPER GREAT LAKES TROUGH. ONE OF THE
WEAKER VORTS SLIDING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL SLIDE INTO
THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE APLCNS LATE TUE NIGHT. LITTLE MORE THAN
COOLER AIR WILL MAKE IT OVER THE MTNS...W/ THE MOISTURE DISSIPATING
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HEADING INTO EARLY WED...A STRONGER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING WELL TO OUR NORTH WHICH WILL ALSO
STRENGTHEN THE INCOMING COLD FRONT.

GUSTY SW WINDS WILL ARRIVE BEFORE ANY PRECIP E OF THE APLCNS...AND
GRADUALLY PULL UP OUR COOL TEMPS FROM OVERNIGHT BACK INTO A WARMER
REGIME BY MIDDAY. UNLIKE TODAY`S CONDITIONS...THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE
IS NOT EXPECTED TO MUSTER UP MUCH INSTABILITY. THE SRN HALF OF THE
CWA MAY SEE SOME WEAK CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA WILL SEE AT SOLID CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE
AVG FOR THE VA/MD PIEDMONT. QPF FAIRLY LIGHT FOR THIS PASSAGE AND A
RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF THE MID AFTN TO EVE. BY LATE EVE...MOST
OF THE PRECIP WILL BE SLIDING OUT OF THE SE PORTION OF THE CWA AND
CLOUDS WILL ALLOW EXIT OFF THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A COLD UPPER-LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM STALLED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS...WITH
PERSISTENT CHILLY WEST OR NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION.

A TROUGH MAY BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA SATURDAY...BUT OTHER
THAN THAT IT LOOKS MAINLY DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL /I.E. 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL/ THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
HIGH STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
40S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISO SHOWER/TSTM
STILL PSBL THRU 07Z AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS THERE AFTER. ANY TSTM COULD PRODUCE A GUST UP TO 35 KT.
OUTSIDE OF PCPN...WINDS MAINLY SLY AROUND 10 KTS...BCMG WLY LATE
TONIGHT. WIND SHIFT COULD BE DIFFERENT 1-2 HRS.

WLY WINDS OVNGT THRU TUE...W/ GUSTS UP TO 25 KT DURING THE DAY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWING THRU ON WED AFTN. GUSTY SW WINDS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AND MAINLY BRIEF/SCTD SHOWER ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT
SLIDE THRU DURING THE 2ND HALF OF THE DAY.

WLY FLOW 10 KT OR SO W/ MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THU-SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS...WITH THE UPPER TIDAL
POTOAMC ENDING AFTR 05Z. GUSTS INCREASE AGAIN AFTR DAYBREAK
TUES...SO SCA WILL BE BACK IN EFFECT FOR UPPER TIDAL
POTOMAC...ALONG WITH THE REMAINING WATERS.

SOLID SCA WINDS POSSIBLE ON WED AHEAD OF AND ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT
IS EXPECTED TO SWING THRU THE WATERS BY LATE EVE.

SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE IN WLY SURGE BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THURSDAY...THEN LIGHTER FLOW BELOW SCA CRITERIA LIKELY FRIDAY-
SATURDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OCCURRING ALONG THE POTOMAC RIVER NEAR
ALEXANDRIA...SO HAVE ISSUED AN ADVISORY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS THRU
MIDNIGHT TO HANDLE THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE. EXPECTING LVLS TO DROP
THERE AFTER.

THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
WITH TIDE LVLS BARELY REACHING ACTION STAGE AT THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE.

WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE W FOR TUES...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
FURTHER CONCERNS AFTER TONIGHTS CYCLE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ053-
     054.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ535-536.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ535-
     536.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ535.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210226
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1026 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA AND OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 89 WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 1000 PM
THIS EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA AND
SHOWERS IN GENERAL HAVE DIMINISHED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF AND
COME TO AN END SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE SFC
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SITS FROM NCNTRL VA DOWN INTO SW/SCNTRL VA
LATE THIS EVENING AND WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY SUNRISE TUESDAY
MORNING. AREAS OF CLEARING CAN ALREADY BE SEEN OVER CNTRL VA INTO
CNTRL/WRN NC...WHICH FURTHER SUPPORTS AN END TO SHOWER ACTIVITY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS MAY FILL IN BRIEFLY OVERNIGHT BUT THEN
CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DUE TO DRYING DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY
FLOW. TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
UPDATE...THEREFORE EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 50S WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95 AND IN THE MID-UPPER 50S EWD (LOWER 60S AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STACKED UPPER LOW ANCHORS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SRN
CANADA THRU THE SHORT TERM PERIOD THANKS TO BLOCKY FLOW OVER THE
HIGH LATITUDES. IN WAKE OF TONIGHTS (MON NIGHTS) COLD FRONT...HIGH
PRESSURE FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE SE STATES TUES...EXTENDING
NEWD OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS AND A
WLY WIND. HIGHS FORECAST IN THE UPPER 60S E TO LOW 70S W UNDER A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL ROUND
THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW...WITH THE FIRST ROUNDING THE BASE TUES
NIGHT- WEDS. ASSOCIATED FAST MOVING COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE OH
VALLEY WEDS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE SE COAST WEDS...WITH
INCREASING SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA. WEAK FRONT
REACHES THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS WEDS AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE- CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NRN LOCAL AREA WEDS
AFTERNOON...CLOSEST TO BEST MOISTURE/DYNAMICS. HIGHS WEDS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 70S. FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
WEDS NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS ALONG THE
COAST WEDS NIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA EARLY THURS MORNING. WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY THURS MORNING AS SRN STREAM ENERGY
TRAVERSES THE GULF STATES. GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS KEEP MEASURABLE
PRECIP SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA THURS...BUT NAM/SREF SOLUTIONS
SPREAD PRECIP INTO S AND SE VA/NE NC. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THURS ACROSS THOSE AREAS BASED ON UNCERTAINTY. COOLER THURS
WITH WNW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA THURS NIGHT FOLLOWED BY COOL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW. DRY WITH LOWS BOTH THURS AND FRI
NIGHTS 40-50 XCPT A FEW U30S NWRN MOST CNTYS. HIGHS FRI M-U60S.

NXT SYSTM PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE CAROLINAS SAT. ECMWF SOMEWHAT
FRTHR SOUTH WITH ITS MOISTURE FIELDS THAN GFS. BEST SPRT FOR PCPN
WILL BE ACROSS SRN HALF OF FA WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED.
SLGHT CHC ACROSS THE NRTH. COOL SAT WITH HIGHS 60-65. PCPN ENDS SAT
EVE AS SYSTM EXITS OFF THE COAST. LOWS IN THE 40S.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES ERLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANY PCPN
STAYING SOUTH OF FA. DRY WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND. HIGHS SUN
IN THE L-M60S. LOWS SUN NIGHT IN THE 40S. HIGHS MON M-U60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...THE COLD FRONT WAS SITUATED OVER WEST VIRGINIA AND IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 10 AND 14Z. CONVECTION HAS
BEEN RATHER ISOLATED SO FAR AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING CUT OFF...
WIDESPREAD TSTMS ARE UNLIKELY. WITH TSTMS OVER MD/NRN VA MORE
WIDESPREAD...SHOWERS MAY REACH SBY AND HAVE THEM THERE AFT 04Z.
CANNOT RULE OUT A TSTM OVERNIGHT BUT NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAF.

S WINDS GRADUALLY VEER OVERNIGHT BECOMING W/NW FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AND
BACK TO THE WEST ON TUESDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS MAINLY AT RIC
AND SBY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
10 PM UPDATE...SCA HOISTED FOR THE BAY AND LOWER JAMES FOR S
WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND 4 TO 5 FT WAVES AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WITH THE SCA CURRENTLY SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 4 AM.

SEAS REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT...SO WILL CONT THE SCA HEADLINES WITH
AN EMPHASIS ON SUBSIDING CONDITIONS THROUGH TUES. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. SW WINDS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST BUT REMAIN BLO 20 KTS...SO NO HEADLINES (WIND
WISE) XPCTD BEHIND THE FRNT.

NEXT TROF / FRONT PROGGED ACROSS THE WATERS WED NIGHT / ERLY
THURSDAY SWITCHING THE WNDS TO A NW THEN N DIRECTION. ONCE
AGAIN...SURGE BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY NOT STRONG ENUF TO GENERATE
HEADLINES. NW FLOW SETS UP BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING BLO SCA LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
OVERNIGHT RAINFALL OF ONE TO ONE HALF INCH RESULTED IN RISES OVER
AREA RIVERS DURING THE DAY. MINOR FLOODING ON THE RIVANNA RIVER AT
PALMYRA SHOULD END BEFORE MIDNIGHT. RISES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT FOR THE JAMES RIVER...WITH THE RICHMOND WESTHAM GAUGE
APPROACHING MINOR FLOODING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THIS EVENING WILL HELP MAINTAIN ~1.0 FT
ANOMALIES IN THE MIDDLE BAY THROUGH TONIGHT. TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES OFFSHORE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/SAM
NEAR TERM...BMD/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ/MPR/LSA
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210226
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1026 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA AND OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 89 WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 1000 PM
THIS EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA AND
SHOWERS IN GENERAL HAVE DIMINISHED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF AND
COME TO AN END SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE SFC
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SITS FROM NCNTRL VA DOWN INTO SW/SCNTRL VA
LATE THIS EVENING AND WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY SUNRISE TUESDAY
MORNING. AREAS OF CLEARING CAN ALREADY BE SEEN OVER CNTRL VA INTO
CNTRL/WRN NC...WHICH FURTHER SUPPORTS AN END TO SHOWER ACTIVITY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS MAY FILL IN BRIEFLY OVERNIGHT BUT THEN
CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DUE TO DRYING DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY
FLOW. TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
UPDATE...THEREFORE EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 50S WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95 AND IN THE MID-UPPER 50S EWD (LOWER 60S AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STACKED UPPER LOW ANCHORS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SRN
CANADA THRU THE SHORT TERM PERIOD THANKS TO BLOCKY FLOW OVER THE
HIGH LATITUDES. IN WAKE OF TONIGHTS (MON NIGHTS) COLD FRONT...HIGH
PRESSURE FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE SE STATES TUES...EXTENDING
NEWD OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS AND A
WLY WIND. HIGHS FORECAST IN THE UPPER 60S E TO LOW 70S W UNDER A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL ROUND
THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW...WITH THE FIRST ROUNDING THE BASE TUES
NIGHT- WEDS. ASSOCIATED FAST MOVING COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE OH
VALLEY WEDS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE SE COAST WEDS...WITH
INCREASING SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA. WEAK FRONT
REACHES THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS WEDS AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE- CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NRN LOCAL AREA WEDS
AFTERNOON...CLOSEST TO BEST MOISTURE/DYNAMICS. HIGHS WEDS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 70S. FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
WEDS NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS ALONG THE
COAST WEDS NIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA EARLY THURS MORNING. WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY THURS MORNING AS SRN STREAM ENERGY
TRAVERSES THE GULF STATES. GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS KEEP MEASURABLE
PRECIP SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA THURS...BUT NAM/SREF SOLUTIONS
SPREAD PRECIP INTO S AND SE VA/NE NC. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THURS ACROSS THOSE AREAS BASED ON UNCERTAINTY. COOLER THURS
WITH WNW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA THURS NIGHT FOLLOWED BY COOL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW. DRY WITH LOWS BOTH THURS AND FRI
NIGHTS 40-50 XCPT A FEW U30S NWRN MOST CNTYS. HIGHS FRI M-U60S.

NXT SYSTM PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE CAROLINAS SAT. ECMWF SOMEWHAT
FRTHR SOUTH WITH ITS MOISTURE FIELDS THAN GFS. BEST SPRT FOR PCPN
WILL BE ACROSS SRN HALF OF FA WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED.
SLGHT CHC ACROSS THE NRTH. COOL SAT WITH HIGHS 60-65. PCPN ENDS SAT
EVE AS SYSTM EXITS OFF THE COAST. LOWS IN THE 40S.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES ERLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANY PCPN
STAYING SOUTH OF FA. DRY WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND. HIGHS SUN
IN THE L-M60S. LOWS SUN NIGHT IN THE 40S. HIGHS MON M-U60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...THE COLD FRONT WAS SITUATED OVER WEST VIRGINIA AND IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 10 AND 14Z. CONVECTION HAS
BEEN RATHER ISOLATED SO FAR AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING CUT OFF...
WIDESPREAD TSTMS ARE UNLIKELY. WITH TSTMS OVER MD/NRN VA MORE
WIDESPREAD...SHOWERS MAY REACH SBY AND HAVE THEM THERE AFT 04Z.
CANNOT RULE OUT A TSTM OVERNIGHT BUT NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAF.

S WINDS GRADUALLY VEER OVERNIGHT BECOMING W/NW FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AND
BACK TO THE WEST ON TUESDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS MAINLY AT RIC
AND SBY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
10 PM UPDATE...SCA HOISTED FOR THE BAY AND LOWER JAMES FOR S
WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND 4 TO 5 FT WAVES AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WITH THE SCA CURRENTLY SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 4 AM.

SEAS REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT...SO WILL CONT THE SCA HEADLINES WITH
AN EMPHASIS ON SUBSIDING CONDITIONS THROUGH TUES. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. SW WINDS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST BUT REMAIN BLO 20 KTS...SO NO HEADLINES (WIND
WISE) XPCTD BEHIND THE FRNT.

NEXT TROF / FRONT PROGGED ACROSS THE WATERS WED NIGHT / ERLY
THURSDAY SWITCHING THE WNDS TO A NW THEN N DIRECTION. ONCE
AGAIN...SURGE BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY NOT STRONG ENUF TO GENERATE
HEADLINES. NW FLOW SETS UP BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING BLO SCA LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
OVERNIGHT RAINFALL OF ONE TO ONE HALF INCH RESULTED IN RISES OVER
AREA RIVERS DURING THE DAY. MINOR FLOODING ON THE RIVANNA RIVER AT
PALMYRA SHOULD END BEFORE MIDNIGHT. RISES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT FOR THE JAMES RIVER...WITH THE RICHMOND WESTHAM GAUGE
APPROACHING MINOR FLOODING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THIS EVENING WILL HELP MAINTAIN ~1.0 FT
ANOMALIES IN THE MIDDLE BAY THROUGH TONIGHT. TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES OFFSHORE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/SAM
NEAR TERM...BMD/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ/MPR/LSA
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210226
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1026 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA AND OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 89 WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 1000 PM
THIS EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA AND
SHOWERS IN GENERAL HAVE DIMINISHED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF AND
COME TO AN END SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE SFC
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SITS FROM NCNTRL VA DOWN INTO SW/SCNTRL VA
LATE THIS EVENING AND WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY SUNRISE TUESDAY
MORNING. AREAS OF CLEARING CAN ALREADY BE SEEN OVER CNTRL VA INTO
CNTRL/WRN NC...WHICH FURTHER SUPPORTS AN END TO SHOWER ACTIVITY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS MAY FILL IN BRIEFLY OVERNIGHT BUT THEN
CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DUE TO DRYING DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY
FLOW. TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
UPDATE...THEREFORE EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 50S WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95 AND IN THE MID-UPPER 50S EWD (LOWER 60S AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STACKED UPPER LOW ANCHORS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SRN
CANADA THRU THE SHORT TERM PERIOD THANKS TO BLOCKY FLOW OVER THE
HIGH LATITUDES. IN WAKE OF TONIGHTS (MON NIGHTS) COLD FRONT...HIGH
PRESSURE FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE SE STATES TUES...EXTENDING
NEWD OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS AND A
WLY WIND. HIGHS FORECAST IN THE UPPER 60S E TO LOW 70S W UNDER A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL ROUND
THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW...WITH THE FIRST ROUNDING THE BASE TUES
NIGHT- WEDS. ASSOCIATED FAST MOVING COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE OH
VALLEY WEDS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE SE COAST WEDS...WITH
INCREASING SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA. WEAK FRONT
REACHES THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS WEDS AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE- CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NRN LOCAL AREA WEDS
AFTERNOON...CLOSEST TO BEST MOISTURE/DYNAMICS. HIGHS WEDS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 70S. FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
WEDS NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS ALONG THE
COAST WEDS NIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA EARLY THURS MORNING. WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY THURS MORNING AS SRN STREAM ENERGY
TRAVERSES THE GULF STATES. GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS KEEP MEASURABLE
PRECIP SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA THURS...BUT NAM/SREF SOLUTIONS
SPREAD PRECIP INTO S AND SE VA/NE NC. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THURS ACROSS THOSE AREAS BASED ON UNCERTAINTY. COOLER THURS
WITH WNW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA THURS NIGHT FOLLOWED BY COOL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW. DRY WITH LOWS BOTH THURS AND FRI
NIGHTS 40-50 XCPT A FEW U30S NWRN MOST CNTYS. HIGHS FRI M-U60S.

NXT SYSTM PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE CAROLINAS SAT. ECMWF SOMEWHAT
FRTHR SOUTH WITH ITS MOISTURE FIELDS THAN GFS. BEST SPRT FOR PCPN
WILL BE ACROSS SRN HALF OF FA WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED.
SLGHT CHC ACROSS THE NRTH. COOL SAT WITH HIGHS 60-65. PCPN ENDS SAT
EVE AS SYSTM EXITS OFF THE COAST. LOWS IN THE 40S.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES ERLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANY PCPN
STAYING SOUTH OF FA. DRY WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND. HIGHS SUN
IN THE L-M60S. LOWS SUN NIGHT IN THE 40S. HIGHS MON M-U60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...THE COLD FRONT WAS SITUATED OVER WEST VIRGINIA AND IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 10 AND 14Z. CONVECTION HAS
BEEN RATHER ISOLATED SO FAR AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING CUT OFF...
WIDESPREAD TSTMS ARE UNLIKELY. WITH TSTMS OVER MD/NRN VA MORE
WIDESPREAD...SHOWERS MAY REACH SBY AND HAVE THEM THERE AFT 04Z.
CANNOT RULE OUT A TSTM OVERNIGHT BUT NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAF.

S WINDS GRADUALLY VEER OVERNIGHT BECOMING W/NW FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AND
BACK TO THE WEST ON TUESDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS MAINLY AT RIC
AND SBY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
10 PM UPDATE...SCA HOISTED FOR THE BAY AND LOWER JAMES FOR S
WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND 4 TO 5 FT WAVES AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WITH THE SCA CURRENTLY SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 4 AM.

SEAS REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT...SO WILL CONT THE SCA HEADLINES WITH
AN EMPHASIS ON SUBSIDING CONDITIONS THROUGH TUES. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. SW WINDS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST BUT REMAIN BLO 20 KTS...SO NO HEADLINES (WIND
WISE) XPCTD BEHIND THE FRNT.

NEXT TROF / FRONT PROGGED ACROSS THE WATERS WED NIGHT / ERLY
THURSDAY SWITCHING THE WNDS TO A NW THEN N DIRECTION. ONCE
AGAIN...SURGE BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY NOT STRONG ENUF TO GENERATE
HEADLINES. NW FLOW SETS UP BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING BLO SCA LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
OVERNIGHT RAINFALL OF ONE TO ONE HALF INCH RESULTED IN RISES OVER
AREA RIVERS DURING THE DAY. MINOR FLOODING ON THE RIVANNA RIVER AT
PALMYRA SHOULD END BEFORE MIDNIGHT. RISES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT FOR THE JAMES RIVER...WITH THE RICHMOND WESTHAM GAUGE
APPROACHING MINOR FLOODING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THIS EVENING WILL HELP MAINTAIN ~1.0 FT
ANOMALIES IN THE MIDDLE BAY THROUGH TONIGHT. TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES OFFSHORE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/SAM
NEAR TERM...BMD/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ/MPR/LSA
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210226
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1026 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA AND OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 89 WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 1000 PM
THIS EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA AND
SHOWERS IN GENERAL HAVE DIMINISHED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF AND
COME TO AN END SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE SFC
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SITS FROM NCNTRL VA DOWN INTO SW/SCNTRL VA
LATE THIS EVENING AND WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY SUNRISE TUESDAY
MORNING. AREAS OF CLEARING CAN ALREADY BE SEEN OVER CNTRL VA INTO
CNTRL/WRN NC...WHICH FURTHER SUPPORTS AN END TO SHOWER ACTIVITY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS MAY FILL IN BRIEFLY OVERNIGHT BUT THEN
CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DUE TO DRYING DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY
FLOW. TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
UPDATE...THEREFORE EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 50S WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95 AND IN THE MID-UPPER 50S EWD (LOWER 60S AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STACKED UPPER LOW ANCHORS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SRN
CANADA THRU THE SHORT TERM PERIOD THANKS TO BLOCKY FLOW OVER THE
HIGH LATITUDES. IN WAKE OF TONIGHTS (MON NIGHTS) COLD FRONT...HIGH
PRESSURE FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE SE STATES TUES...EXTENDING
NEWD OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS AND A
WLY WIND. HIGHS FORECAST IN THE UPPER 60S E TO LOW 70S W UNDER A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL ROUND
THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW...WITH THE FIRST ROUNDING THE BASE TUES
NIGHT- WEDS. ASSOCIATED FAST MOVING COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE OH
VALLEY WEDS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE SE COAST WEDS...WITH
INCREASING SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA. WEAK FRONT
REACHES THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS WEDS AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE- CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NRN LOCAL AREA WEDS
AFTERNOON...CLOSEST TO BEST MOISTURE/DYNAMICS. HIGHS WEDS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 70S. FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
WEDS NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS ALONG THE
COAST WEDS NIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA EARLY THURS MORNING. WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY THURS MORNING AS SRN STREAM ENERGY
TRAVERSES THE GULF STATES. GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS KEEP MEASURABLE
PRECIP SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA THURS...BUT NAM/SREF SOLUTIONS
SPREAD PRECIP INTO S AND SE VA/NE NC. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THURS ACROSS THOSE AREAS BASED ON UNCERTAINTY. COOLER THURS
WITH WNW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA THURS NIGHT FOLLOWED BY COOL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW. DRY WITH LOWS BOTH THURS AND FRI
NIGHTS 40-50 XCPT A FEW U30S NWRN MOST CNTYS. HIGHS FRI M-U60S.

NXT SYSTM PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE CAROLINAS SAT. ECMWF SOMEWHAT
FRTHR SOUTH WITH ITS MOISTURE FIELDS THAN GFS. BEST SPRT FOR PCPN
WILL BE ACROSS SRN HALF OF FA WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED.
SLGHT CHC ACROSS THE NRTH. COOL SAT WITH HIGHS 60-65. PCPN ENDS SAT
EVE AS SYSTM EXITS OFF THE COAST. LOWS IN THE 40S.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES ERLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANY PCPN
STAYING SOUTH OF FA. DRY WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND. HIGHS SUN
IN THE L-M60S. LOWS SUN NIGHT IN THE 40S. HIGHS MON M-U60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...THE COLD FRONT WAS SITUATED OVER WEST VIRGINIA AND IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 10 AND 14Z. CONVECTION HAS
BEEN RATHER ISOLATED SO FAR AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING CUT OFF...
WIDESPREAD TSTMS ARE UNLIKELY. WITH TSTMS OVER MD/NRN VA MORE
WIDESPREAD...SHOWERS MAY REACH SBY AND HAVE THEM THERE AFT 04Z.
CANNOT RULE OUT A TSTM OVERNIGHT BUT NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAF.

S WINDS GRADUALLY VEER OVERNIGHT BECOMING W/NW FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AND
BACK TO THE WEST ON TUESDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS MAINLY AT RIC
AND SBY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
10 PM UPDATE...SCA HOISTED FOR THE BAY AND LOWER JAMES FOR S
WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND 4 TO 5 FT WAVES AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WITH THE SCA CURRENTLY SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 4 AM.

SEAS REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT...SO WILL CONT THE SCA HEADLINES WITH
AN EMPHASIS ON SUBSIDING CONDITIONS THROUGH TUES. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. SW WINDS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST BUT REMAIN BLO 20 KTS...SO NO HEADLINES (WIND
WISE) XPCTD BEHIND THE FRNT.

NEXT TROF / FRONT PROGGED ACROSS THE WATERS WED NIGHT / ERLY
THURSDAY SWITCHING THE WNDS TO A NW THEN N DIRECTION. ONCE
AGAIN...SURGE BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY NOT STRONG ENUF TO GENERATE
HEADLINES. NW FLOW SETS UP BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING BLO SCA LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
OVERNIGHT RAINFALL OF ONE TO ONE HALF INCH RESULTED IN RISES OVER
AREA RIVERS DURING THE DAY. MINOR FLOODING ON THE RIVANNA RIVER AT
PALMYRA SHOULD END BEFORE MIDNIGHT. RISES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT FOR THE JAMES RIVER...WITH THE RICHMOND WESTHAM GAUGE
APPROACHING MINOR FLOODING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THIS EVENING WILL HELP MAINTAIN ~1.0 FT
ANOMALIES IN THE MIDDLE BAY THROUGH TONIGHT. TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES OFFSHORE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/SAM
NEAR TERM...BMD/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ/MPR/LSA
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210222
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1022 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA AND OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 89 WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 1000 PM
THIS EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA AND
SHOWERS IN GENERAL HAVE DIMINISHED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF AND
COME TO AN END SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE SFC
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SITS FROM NCNTRL VA DOWN INTO SW/SCNTRL VA
LATE THIS EVENING AND WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY SUNRISE TUESDAY
MORNING. AREAS OF CLEARING CAN ALREADY BE SEEN OVER CNTRL VA INTO
CNTRL/WRN NC...WHICH FURTHER SUPPORTS AN END TO SHOWER ACTIVITY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS MAY FILL IN BRIEFLY OVERNIGHT BUT THEN
CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DUE TO DRYING DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY
FLOW. TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
UPDATE...THEREFORE EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 50S WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95 AND IN THE MID-UPPER 50S EWD (LOWER 60S AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STACKED UPPER LOW ANCHORS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SRN
CANADA THRU THE SHORT TERM PERIOD THANKS TO BLOCKY FLOW OVER THE
HIGH LATITUDES. IN WAKE OF TONIGHTS (MON NIGHTS) COLD FRONT...HIGH
PRESSURE FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE SE STATES TUES...EXTENDING
NEWD OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS AND A
WLY WIND. HIGHS FORECAST IN THE UPPER 60S E TO LOW 70S W UNDER A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL ROUND
THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW...WITH THE FIRST ROUNDING THE BASE TUES
NIGHT- WEDS. ASSOCIATED FAST MOVING COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE OH
VALLEY WEDS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE SE COAST WEDS...WITH
INCREASING SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA. WEAK FRONT
REACHES THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS WEDS AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE- CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NRN LOCAL AREA WEDS
AFTERNOON...CLOSEST TO BEST MOISTURE/DYNAMICS. HIGHS WEDS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 70S. FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
WEDS NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS ALONG THE
COAST WEDS NIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA EARLY THURS MORNING. WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY THURS MORNING AS SRN STREAM ENERGY
TRAVERSES THE GULF STATES. GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS KEEP MEASURABLE
PRECIP SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA THURS...BUT NAM/SREF SOLUTIONS
SPREAD PRECIP INTO S AND SE VA/NE NC. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THURS ACROSS THOSE AREAS BASED ON UNCERTAINTY. COOLER THURS
WITH WNW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA THURS NIGHT FOLLOWED BY COOL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW. DRY WITH LOWS BOTH THURS AND FRI
NIGHTS 40-50 XCPT A FEW U30S NWRN MOST CNTYS. HIGHS FRI M-U60S.

NXT SYSTM PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE CAROLINAS SAT. ECMWF SOMEWHAT
FRTHR SOUTH WITH ITS MOISTURE FIELDS THAN GFS. BEST SPRT FOR PCPN
WILL BE ACROSS SRN HALF OF FA WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED.
SLGHT CHC ACROSS THE NRTH. COOL SAT WITH HIGHS 60-65. PCPN ENDS SAT
EVE AS SYSTM EXITS OFF THE COAST. LOWS IN THE 40S.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES ERLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANY PCPN
STAYING SOUTH OF FA. DRY WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND. HIGHS SUN
IN THE L-M60S. LOWS SUN NIGHT IN THE 40S. HIGHS MON M-U60S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...THE COLD FRONT WAS SITUATED OVER WEST VIRGINIA AND IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 10 AND 14Z. CONVECTION HAS
BEEN RATHER ISOLATED SO FAR AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING CUT OFF...
WIDESPREAD TSTMS ARE UNLIKELY. WITH TSTMS OVER MD/NRN VA MORE
WIDESPREAD...SHOWERS MAY REACH SBY AND HAVE THEM THERE AFT 04Z.
CANNOT RULE OUT A TSTM OVERNIGHT BUT NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAF.

S WINDS GRADUALLY VEER OVERNIGHT BECOMING W/NW FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AND
BACK TO THE WEST ON TUESDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS MAINLY AT RIC
AND SBY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT...SO WILL CONT THE SCA HEADLINES WITH
AN EMPHASIS ON SUBSIDING CONDITIONS THROUGH TUES. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. SW WINDS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST BUT REMAIN BLO 20 KTS...SO NO HEADLINES (WIND
WISE) XPCTD BEHIND THE FRNT.

NEXT TROF / FRONT PROGGED ACROSS THE WATERS WED NIGHT / ERLY
THURSDAY SWITCHING THE WNDS TO A NW THEN N DIRECTION. ONCE
AGAIN...SURGE BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY NOT STRONG ENUF TO GENERATE
HEADLINES. NW FLOW SETS UP BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING BLO SCA LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
OVERNIGHT RAINFALL OF ONE TO ONE HALF INCH RESULTED IN RISES OVER
AREA RIVERS DURING THE DAY. MINOR FLOODING ON THE RIVANNA RIVER AT
PALMYRA SHOULD END BEFORE MIDNIGHT. RISES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT FOR THE JAMES RIVER...WITH THE RICHMOND WESTHAM GAUGE
APPROACHING MINOR FLOODING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THIS EVENING WILL HELP MAINTAIN ~1.0 FT
ANOMALIES IN THE MIDDLE BAY THROUGH TONIGHT. TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES OFFSHORE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/SAM
NEAR TERM...BMD/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ/MPR
HYDROLOGY...AKQ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210222
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1022 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA AND OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 89 WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 1000 PM
THIS EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA AND
SHOWERS IN GENERAL HAVE DIMINISHED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF AND
COME TO AN END SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE SFC
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SITS FROM NCNTRL VA DOWN INTO SW/SCNTRL VA
LATE THIS EVENING AND WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY SUNRISE TUESDAY
MORNING. AREAS OF CLEARING CAN ALREADY BE SEEN OVER CNTRL VA INTO
CNTRL/WRN NC...WHICH FURTHER SUPPORTS AN END TO SHOWER ACTIVITY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS MAY FILL IN BRIEFLY OVERNIGHT BUT THEN
CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DUE TO DRYING DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY
FLOW. TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
UPDATE...THEREFORE EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 50S WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95 AND IN THE MID-UPPER 50S EWD (LOWER 60S AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STACKED UPPER LOW ANCHORS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SRN
CANADA THRU THE SHORT TERM PERIOD THANKS TO BLOCKY FLOW OVER THE
HIGH LATITUDES. IN WAKE OF TONIGHTS (MON NIGHTS) COLD FRONT...HIGH
PRESSURE FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE SE STATES TUES...EXTENDING
NEWD OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS AND A
WLY WIND. HIGHS FORECAST IN THE UPPER 60S E TO LOW 70S W UNDER A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL ROUND
THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW...WITH THE FIRST ROUNDING THE BASE TUES
NIGHT- WEDS. ASSOCIATED FAST MOVING COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE OH
VALLEY WEDS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE SE COAST WEDS...WITH
INCREASING SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA. WEAK FRONT
REACHES THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS WEDS AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE- CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NRN LOCAL AREA WEDS
AFTERNOON...CLOSEST TO BEST MOISTURE/DYNAMICS. HIGHS WEDS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 70S. FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
WEDS NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS ALONG THE
COAST WEDS NIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA EARLY THURS MORNING. WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY THURS MORNING AS SRN STREAM ENERGY
TRAVERSES THE GULF STATES. GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS KEEP MEASURABLE
PRECIP SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA THURS...BUT NAM/SREF SOLUTIONS
SPREAD PRECIP INTO S AND SE VA/NE NC. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THURS ACROSS THOSE AREAS BASED ON UNCERTAINTY. COOLER THURS
WITH WNW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA THURS NIGHT FOLLOWED BY COOL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW. DRY WITH LOWS BOTH THURS AND FRI
NIGHTS 40-50 XCPT A FEW U30S NWRN MOST CNTYS. HIGHS FRI M-U60S.

NXT SYSTM PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE CAROLINAS SAT. ECMWF SOMEWHAT
FRTHR SOUTH WITH ITS MOISTURE FIELDS THAN GFS. BEST SPRT FOR PCPN
WILL BE ACROSS SRN HALF OF FA WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED.
SLGHT CHC ACROSS THE NRTH. COOL SAT WITH HIGHS 60-65. PCPN ENDS SAT
EVE AS SYSTM EXITS OFF THE COAST. LOWS IN THE 40S.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES ERLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANY PCPN
STAYING SOUTH OF FA. DRY WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND. HIGHS SUN
IN THE L-M60S. LOWS SUN NIGHT IN THE 40S. HIGHS MON M-U60S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...THE COLD FRONT WAS SITUATED OVER WEST VIRGINIA AND IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 10 AND 14Z. CONVECTION HAS
BEEN RATHER ISOLATED SO FAR AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING CUT OFF...
WIDESPREAD TSTMS ARE UNLIKELY. WITH TSTMS OVER MD/NRN VA MORE
WIDESPREAD...SHOWERS MAY REACH SBY AND HAVE THEM THERE AFT 04Z.
CANNOT RULE OUT A TSTM OVERNIGHT BUT NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAF.

S WINDS GRADUALLY VEER OVERNIGHT BECOMING W/NW FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AND
BACK TO THE WEST ON TUESDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS MAINLY AT RIC
AND SBY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT...SO WILL CONT THE SCA HEADLINES WITH
AN EMPHASIS ON SUBSIDING CONDITIONS THROUGH TUES. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. SW WINDS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST BUT REMAIN BLO 20 KTS...SO NO HEADLINES (WIND
WISE) XPCTD BEHIND THE FRNT.

NEXT TROF / FRONT PROGGED ACROSS THE WATERS WED NIGHT / ERLY
THURSDAY SWITCHING THE WNDS TO A NW THEN N DIRECTION. ONCE
AGAIN...SURGE BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY NOT STRONG ENUF TO GENERATE
HEADLINES. NW FLOW SETS UP BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING BLO SCA LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
OVERNIGHT RAINFALL OF ONE TO ONE HALF INCH RESULTED IN RISES OVER
AREA RIVERS DURING THE DAY. MINOR FLOODING ON THE RIVANNA RIVER AT
PALMYRA SHOULD END BEFORE MIDNIGHT. RISES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT FOR THE JAMES RIVER...WITH THE RICHMOND WESTHAM GAUGE
APPROACHING MINOR FLOODING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THIS EVENING WILL HELP MAINTAIN ~1.0 FT
ANOMALIES IN THE MIDDLE BAY THROUGH TONIGHT. TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES OFFSHORE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/SAM
NEAR TERM...BMD/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ/MPR
HYDROLOGY...AKQ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ


  [top]

000
FXUS61 KRNK 210146
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
946 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
BRINGING AN END TO MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...A COOLER...BREEZY...AND
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVING WITH ANOTHER FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 935 PM EDT MONDAY...

WILL BE ALLOWING SEVERE WATCH 89 TO EXPIRE AT 10 PM. LATEST RADAR
TRENDS SHOW MUCH OF THE DEEPER CONVECTION IN A WEAKENED STATE WITH
LOSS OF HEATING. HOWEVER A FEW CLUSTERS RIGHT ALONG THE COLD
FRONT OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS MAY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BRIEF
STRONGER WIND GUSTS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. OTHERWISE WILL KEEP
THE GOING DRIER SCENARIO ESPCLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH MUCH DRIER AIR
SURGING IN BEHIND THE FRONT THAT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE REGION
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MODELS STILL SHOW A BIT OF UPSLOPE
DRIVEN SHOWERS REDEVELOPING WEST LATE SO KEPT IN SOME LOW POPS FOR
SCATTERED COVERAGE WHILE DRYING OUT AREAS FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING AS WELL. QUICK INCREASE IN 85H
WINDS ALONG WITH A BRIEF SHOT OF COOL ADVECTION AND DECENT
PRESSURE RISES SUPPORT SOME STRONGER POST FRONTAL GUSTS TO 35-40
MPH ON THE RIDGES TOWARD DAYBREAK SO BUMPED UP GUSTS. NOT A LOT OF
CHANGE WITH LOWS GIVEN CLOUDS WEST AND MIXING MOST SPOTS THAT
COULD HOLD LOCATIONS FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT
WITH MOSTLY 40S OUT WEST.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 310 PM EDT MONDAY...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 89 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG TO SEVERE WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AHEAD AND ALONG A COLD FRONT.  THE MAIN
THREATS ARE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE 18Z RNK SOUNDING SHOWED A
CAP AROUND 700 MB THAT WILL BREAK QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
HEATING AND EXPECTED CAPE ABOVE 1000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER 40
KTS AND STRONG UPDRAFTS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING.

REGIONAL WSR88D IMAGE SHOWED STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION OVER
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA EXPANDING NORTHEAST INTO OUR AREA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF OUR AREA THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. STRONG 6H PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING
BREEZY AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE PIEDMONT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA TUESDAY. HIGHS TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
TO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 214 PM EDT MONDAY...

UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SITUATED RIGHT OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
NEXT SFC FRONT WORKING ACROSS BY WEDNESDAY...THOUGH WITH MORE WNW
FLOW ALOFT AND LACK OF SOUTHERLY INFLOW AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. AS SUCH HAVE LIMITED CHANCE POPS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME CHANCE INTO THE NE PIEDMONT OF
VA...WITH LESS COVERAGE INTO THE NC PIEDMONT...AS WE SHOULD SEE SOME
DOWNSLOPE DRYING AND SHEARING OF THE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. JUST
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT TO MENTION THUNDER IN THE
AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. SHOULD BE A BREEZY DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 50S OVER SE WV TO LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH CONTINUED
UPPER TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT AXIS SHIFTING MORE OVER
THE COAST. NW FLOW MAY KEEP SHOWERS GOING INTO THE MOUNTAINS WED
EVENING.  UPPER RIDGING ARRIVES OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITH SFC
HIGH IN THE TN VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT MONDAY...

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THIS FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC BUILDS
SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO FRIDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW
ARRIVES OVER THE AR/OK BORDER BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH OVERRUNNING
CLOUDS WORKING INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. BY
SATURDAY ENOUGH MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO FORM BY SATURDAY
MORNING WITH BEST FORCING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THIS SYSTEM EXITS BY
SAT NIGHT WITH SUNDAY BEING A DRY AND COOL/MILD DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S MOUNTAINS TO 60S EAST. HIGH PRESSURE TO ASSUME POSITION OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS MONDAY TO KEEP THINGS DRY.
NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MAY WORK SOME SHOWERS OUR WAY BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 651 PM EDT MONDAY...

BROKEN BANDS OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION WILL LIKELY LINGER
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE FADING WITH LOSS OF HEATING AS A
COLD FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT. THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR IN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA
WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IF A HEAVIER CLUSTER MOVES RIGHT ACROSS A
TAF SITE. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THINGS MOSTLY VFR WITH INCLUSION OF A
TEMPO OR VICINITY MENTION TO COVER SHORT TERM COVERAGE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WITH MOST CELLS LIKELY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS FOR THE
MOST PART.

PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING BREEZY AND GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS TO THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
ALSO THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...SOME MVFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. UNCERTAINTY ON HOW LOW
CLOUD BASES WILL GET ONCE THE SHOWERS CLEAR OUT TONIGHT. ANOTHER
ISSUE IS THAT ANY LOCATION THAT RECEIVED OVER AN INCH OF RAIN MAY
SEE FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
RETURN LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS AND CONTINUED GUSTY NW
WINDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION...

THEN THE NEXT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE
IN THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. OVERRUNNING CLOUDS WORKING INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. BY SATURDAY...ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO FORM BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH BEST FORCING
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 940 PM EDT MONDAY...

AFTER THE IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL SINCE YESTERDAY MORNING...WHICH SAW
OVER 6 INCHES AT A FEW GAGES IN ALLEGHANY COUNTY NC...RIVERS AND
LARGE CREEKS IN THE NEW RIVER AND UPPER ROANOKE VALLEYS HAVE
MOSTLY CRESTED AND ARE FALLING EARLY TONIGHT. STAGES ALONG THE
MAINSTEM NEW WILL CONTINUE TO RISE DOWNSTREAM FROM RADFORD
OVERNIGHT WITH GLEN LYN EXPECTED TO JUST TOP THE 15 FOOT FLOOD
STAGE JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. RADFORD FLOODING WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT AS WATER FROM ABOVE CLAYTOR LAKE IS PASSED THROUGH.
ADDED RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS NOW ISSUED FOR THE LOWER ROANOKE RIVER
AT RANDOLPH AND AT SOUTH BOSTON ON THE DAN FOR MINOR FLOODING.
LOCATIONS AROUND DANVILLE WILL ALSO BE CLOSE TO FLOOD OVERNIGHT AS
WELL AS PACES LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/KK
NEAR TERM...JH/KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/JH/KK
HYDROLOGY...JH/PC



000
FXUS61 KRNK 210146
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
946 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
BRINGING AN END TO MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...A COOLER...BREEZY...AND
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVING WITH ANOTHER FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 935 PM EDT MONDAY...

WILL BE ALLOWING SEVERE WATCH 89 TO EXPIRE AT 10 PM. LATEST RADAR
TRENDS SHOW MUCH OF THE DEEPER CONVECTION IN A WEAKENED STATE WITH
LOSS OF HEATING. HOWEVER A FEW CLUSTERS RIGHT ALONG THE COLD
FRONT OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS MAY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BRIEF
STRONGER WIND GUSTS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. OTHERWISE WILL KEEP
THE GOING DRIER SCENARIO ESPCLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH MUCH DRIER AIR
SURGING IN BEHIND THE FRONT THAT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE REGION
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MODELS STILL SHOW A BIT OF UPSLOPE
DRIVEN SHOWERS REDEVELOPING WEST LATE SO KEPT IN SOME LOW POPS FOR
SCATTERED COVERAGE WHILE DRYING OUT AREAS FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING AS WELL. QUICK INCREASE IN 85H
WINDS ALONG WITH A BRIEF SHOT OF COOL ADVECTION AND DECENT
PRESSURE RISES SUPPORT SOME STRONGER POST FRONTAL GUSTS TO 35-40
MPH ON THE RIDGES TOWARD DAYBREAK SO BUMPED UP GUSTS. NOT A LOT OF
CHANGE WITH LOWS GIVEN CLOUDS WEST AND MIXING MOST SPOTS THAT
COULD HOLD LOCATIONS FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT
WITH MOSTLY 40S OUT WEST.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 310 PM EDT MONDAY...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 89 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG TO SEVERE WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AHEAD AND ALONG A COLD FRONT.  THE MAIN
THREATS ARE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE 18Z RNK SOUNDING SHOWED A
CAP AROUND 700 MB THAT WILL BREAK QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
HEATING AND EXPECTED CAPE ABOVE 1000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER 40
KTS AND STRONG UPDRAFTS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING.

REGIONAL WSR88D IMAGE SHOWED STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION OVER
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA EXPANDING NORTHEAST INTO OUR AREA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF OUR AREA THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. STRONG 6H PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING
BREEZY AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE PIEDMONT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA TUESDAY. HIGHS TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
TO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 214 PM EDT MONDAY...

UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SITUATED RIGHT OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
NEXT SFC FRONT WORKING ACROSS BY WEDNESDAY...THOUGH WITH MORE WNW
FLOW ALOFT AND LACK OF SOUTHERLY INFLOW AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. AS SUCH HAVE LIMITED CHANCE POPS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME CHANCE INTO THE NE PIEDMONT OF
VA...WITH LESS COVERAGE INTO THE NC PIEDMONT...AS WE SHOULD SEE SOME
DOWNSLOPE DRYING AND SHEARING OF THE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. JUST
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT TO MENTION THUNDER IN THE
AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. SHOULD BE A BREEZY DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 50S OVER SE WV TO LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH CONTINUED
UPPER TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT AXIS SHIFTING MORE OVER
THE COAST. NW FLOW MAY KEEP SHOWERS GOING INTO THE MOUNTAINS WED
EVENING.  UPPER RIDGING ARRIVES OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITH SFC
HIGH IN THE TN VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT MONDAY...

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THIS FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC BUILDS
SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO FRIDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW
ARRIVES OVER THE AR/OK BORDER BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH OVERRUNNING
CLOUDS WORKING INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. BY
SATURDAY ENOUGH MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO FORM BY SATURDAY
MORNING WITH BEST FORCING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THIS SYSTEM EXITS BY
SAT NIGHT WITH SUNDAY BEING A DRY AND COOL/MILD DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S MOUNTAINS TO 60S EAST. HIGH PRESSURE TO ASSUME POSITION OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS MONDAY TO KEEP THINGS DRY.
NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MAY WORK SOME SHOWERS OUR WAY BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 651 PM EDT MONDAY...

BROKEN BANDS OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION WILL LIKELY LINGER
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE FADING WITH LOSS OF HEATING AS A
COLD FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT. THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR IN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA
WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IF A HEAVIER CLUSTER MOVES RIGHT ACROSS A
TAF SITE. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THINGS MOSTLY VFR WITH INCLUSION OF A
TEMPO OR VICINITY MENTION TO COVER SHORT TERM COVERAGE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WITH MOST CELLS LIKELY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS FOR THE
MOST PART.

PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING BREEZY AND GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS TO THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
ALSO THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...SOME MVFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. UNCERTAINTY ON HOW LOW
CLOUD BASES WILL GET ONCE THE SHOWERS CLEAR OUT TONIGHT. ANOTHER
ISSUE IS THAT ANY LOCATION THAT RECEIVED OVER AN INCH OF RAIN MAY
SEE FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
RETURN LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS AND CONTINUED GUSTY NW
WINDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION...

THEN THE NEXT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE
IN THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. OVERRUNNING CLOUDS WORKING INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. BY SATURDAY...ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO FORM BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH BEST FORCING
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 940 PM EDT MONDAY...

AFTER THE IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL SINCE YESTERDAY MORNING...WHICH SAW
OVER 6 INCHES AT A FEW GAGES IN ALLEGHANY COUNTY NC...RIVERS AND
LARGE CREEKS IN THE NEW RIVER AND UPPER ROANOKE VALLEYS HAVE
MOSTLY CRESTED AND ARE FALLING EARLY TONIGHT. STAGES ALONG THE
MAINSTEM NEW WILL CONTINUE TO RISE DOWNSTREAM FROM RADFORD
OVERNIGHT WITH GLEN LYN EXPECTED TO JUST TOP THE 15 FOOT FLOOD
STAGE JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. RADFORD FLOODING WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT AS WATER FROM ABOVE CLAYTOR LAKE IS PASSED THROUGH.
ADDED RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS NOW ISSUED FOR THE LOWER ROANOKE RIVER
AT RANDOLPH AND AT SOUTH BOSTON ON THE DAN FOR MINOR FLOODING.
LOCATIONS AROUND DANVILLE WILL ALSO BE CLOSE TO FLOOD OVERNIGHT AS
WELL AS PACES LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/KK
NEAR TERM...JH/KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/JH/KK
HYDROLOGY...JH/PC




000
FXUS61 KLWX 210131
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
931 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AN UPPER LOW WILL THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO
NEW ENGLAND THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH 10 PM.

01Z ON GOING TSTM ACTIVITY WITH SCT SVR TSTMS...MAINLY OVER
EASTERN AREAS. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY POSITIONED BACK ACROSS
WV...WITH A WARM FRONT STILL NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE. LATEST
MESO RUNS SHOWING SCT ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL FRONTAL
PASSAGE...BETWEEN 04 AND 07Z. SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH HERE IN
THE NEXT 1-2 HRS WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING ALONG WITH A WORKED
OVER ENVIRONMENT FROM THE EARLIER STORMS. THERE AFTER EXPECTING
MAINLY SHOWERS...WITH PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAIN PSBL. LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING GOOD AMT OF DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...SO EXPECTING PCPN TO END WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.

DP UPR LOW WL RESIDE NORTH OF THE GRTLKS TMRW...WHICH WL PROVIDE
FAST MID-LVL FLOW. KEEPING A DRY FCST W/ CLDY PERIODS AS IMPULSES
ZIP THRU THE FLOW. DOWNSLOPING WL PROVIDE THE WARMING IN SPITE OF
CAA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
NOT MUCH OF A BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS THE MID-ATLC STAYS JUST ON
THE OUTER FRINGE OF A LARGE UPPER GREAT LAKES TROUGH. ONE OF THE
WEAKER VORTS SLIDING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL SLIDE INTO
THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE APLCNS LATE TUE NIGHT. LITTLE MORE THAN
COOLER AIR WILL MAKE IT OVER THE MTNS...W/ THE MOISTURE DISSIPATING
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HEADING INTO EARLY WED...A STRONGER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING WELL TO OUR NORTH WHICH WILL ALSO
STRENGTHEN THE INCOMING COLD FRONT.

GUSTY SW WINDS WILL ARRIVE BEFORE ANY PRECIP E OF THE APLCNS...AND
GRADUALLY PULL UP OUR COOL TEMPS FROM OVERNIGHT BACK INTO A WARMER
REGIME BY MIDDAY. UNLIKE TODAY`S CONDITIONS...THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE
IS NOT EXPECTED TO MUSTER UP MUCH INSTABILITY. THE SRN HALF OF THE
CWA MAY SEE SOME WEAK CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA WILL SEE AT SOLID CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE
AVG FOR THE VA/MD PIEDMONT. QPF FAIRLY LIGHT FOR THIS PASSAGE AND A
RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF THE MID AFTN TO EVE. BY LATE EVE...MOST
OF THE PRECIP WILL BE SLIDING OUT OF THE SE PORTION OF THE CWA AND
CLOUDS WILL ALLOW EXIT OFF THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A COLD UPPER-LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM STALLED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS...WITH
PERSISTENT CHILLY WEST OR NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION.

A TROUGH MAY BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA SATURDAY...BUT OTHER
THAN THAT IT LOOKS MAINLY DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL /I.E. 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL/ THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
HIGH STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
40S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISO SHOWER/TSTM
STILL PSBL THRU 07Z AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS THERE AFTER. ANY TSTM COULD PRODUCE A GUST UP TO 35 KT.
OUTSIDE OF PCPN...WINDS MAINLY SLY AROUND 10 KTS...BCMG WLY LATE
TONIGHT. WIND SHIFT COULD BE DIFFERENT 1-2 HRS.

WLY WINDS OVNGT THRU TUE...W/ GUSTS UP TO 25 KT DURING THE DAY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWING THRU ON WED AFTN. GUSTY SW WINDS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AND MAINLY BRIEF/SCTD SHOWER ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT
SLIDE THRU DURING THE 2ND HALF OF THE DAY.

WLY FLOW 10 KT OR SO W/ MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THU-SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS...WITH THE UPPER TIDAL
POTOAMC ENDING AFTR 05Z. GUSTS INCREASE AGAIN AFTR DAYBREAK
TUES...SO SCA WILL BE BACK IN EFFECT FOR UPPER TIDAL
POTOMAC...ALONG WITH THE REMAINING WATERS.

SOLID SCA WINDS POSSIBLE ON WED AHEAD OF AND ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT
IS EXPECTED TO SWING THRU THE WATERS BY LATE EVE.

SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE IN WLY SURGE BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THURSDAY...THEN LIGHTER FLOW BELOW SCA CRITERIA LIKELY FRIDAY-
SATURDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVELS STILL BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0 FT ABV ASTRO NORMS. AT THIS
RATE...WILL HAVE MINOR FLOODING AT ANNAPOLIS AND BALTIMORE. SLY
FLOW WILL REINFORCE THE POSITIVE DEPARTURES. HOWEVER...A COLD
FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING...SWINGING AROUND WIND DIRECTION RIGHT
NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. THAT MAKES IT LOWER CONFIDENCE...BUT
STILL OPTED TO ISSUE ADVY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ011-
     014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ535-536.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KLWX 210131
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
931 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AN UPPER LOW WILL THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO
NEW ENGLAND THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH 10 PM.

01Z ON GOING TSTM ACTIVITY WITH SCT SVR TSTMS...MAINLY OVER
EASTERN AREAS. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY POSITIONED BACK ACROSS
WV...WITH A WARM FRONT STILL NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE. LATEST
MESO RUNS SHOWING SCT ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL FRONTAL
PASSAGE...BETWEEN 04 AND 07Z. SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH HERE IN
THE NEXT 1-2 HRS WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING ALONG WITH A WORKED
OVER ENVIRONMENT FROM THE EARLIER STORMS. THERE AFTER EXPECTING
MAINLY SHOWERS...WITH PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAIN PSBL. LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING GOOD AMT OF DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...SO EXPECTING PCPN TO END WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.

DP UPR LOW WL RESIDE NORTH OF THE GRTLKS TMRW...WHICH WL PROVIDE
FAST MID-LVL FLOW. KEEPING A DRY FCST W/ CLDY PERIODS AS IMPULSES
ZIP THRU THE FLOW. DOWNSLOPING WL PROVIDE THE WARMING IN SPITE OF
CAA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
NOT MUCH OF A BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS THE MID-ATLC STAYS JUST ON
THE OUTER FRINGE OF A LARGE UPPER GREAT LAKES TROUGH. ONE OF THE
WEAKER VORTS SLIDING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL SLIDE INTO
THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE APLCNS LATE TUE NIGHT. LITTLE MORE THAN
COOLER AIR WILL MAKE IT OVER THE MTNS...W/ THE MOISTURE DISSIPATING
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HEADING INTO EARLY WED...A STRONGER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING WELL TO OUR NORTH WHICH WILL ALSO
STRENGTHEN THE INCOMING COLD FRONT.

GUSTY SW WINDS WILL ARRIVE BEFORE ANY PRECIP E OF THE APLCNS...AND
GRADUALLY PULL UP OUR COOL TEMPS FROM OVERNIGHT BACK INTO A WARMER
REGIME BY MIDDAY. UNLIKE TODAY`S CONDITIONS...THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE
IS NOT EXPECTED TO MUSTER UP MUCH INSTABILITY. THE SRN HALF OF THE
CWA MAY SEE SOME WEAK CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA WILL SEE AT SOLID CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE
AVG FOR THE VA/MD PIEDMONT. QPF FAIRLY LIGHT FOR THIS PASSAGE AND A
RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF THE MID AFTN TO EVE. BY LATE EVE...MOST
OF THE PRECIP WILL BE SLIDING OUT OF THE SE PORTION OF THE CWA AND
CLOUDS WILL ALLOW EXIT OFF THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A COLD UPPER-LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM STALLED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS...WITH
PERSISTENT CHILLY WEST OR NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION.

A TROUGH MAY BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA SATURDAY...BUT OTHER
THAN THAT IT LOOKS MAINLY DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL /I.E. 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL/ THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
HIGH STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
40S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISO SHOWER/TSTM
STILL PSBL THRU 07Z AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS THERE AFTER. ANY TSTM COULD PRODUCE A GUST UP TO 35 KT.
OUTSIDE OF PCPN...WINDS MAINLY SLY AROUND 10 KTS...BCMG WLY LATE
TONIGHT. WIND SHIFT COULD BE DIFFERENT 1-2 HRS.

WLY WINDS OVNGT THRU TUE...W/ GUSTS UP TO 25 KT DURING THE DAY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWING THRU ON WED AFTN. GUSTY SW WINDS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AND MAINLY BRIEF/SCTD SHOWER ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT
SLIDE THRU DURING THE 2ND HALF OF THE DAY.

WLY FLOW 10 KT OR SO W/ MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THU-SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS...WITH THE UPPER TIDAL
POTOAMC ENDING AFTR 05Z. GUSTS INCREASE AGAIN AFTR DAYBREAK
TUES...SO SCA WILL BE BACK IN EFFECT FOR UPPER TIDAL
POTOMAC...ALONG WITH THE REMAINING WATERS.

SOLID SCA WINDS POSSIBLE ON WED AHEAD OF AND ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT
IS EXPECTED TO SWING THRU THE WATERS BY LATE EVE.

SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE IN WLY SURGE BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THURSDAY...THEN LIGHTER FLOW BELOW SCA CRITERIA LIKELY FRIDAY-
SATURDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVELS STILL BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0 FT ABV ASTRO NORMS. AT THIS
RATE...WILL HAVE MINOR FLOODING AT ANNAPOLIS AND BALTIMORE. SLY
FLOW WILL REINFORCE THE POSITIVE DEPARTURES. HOWEVER...A COLD
FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING...SWINGING AROUND WIND DIRECTION RIGHT
NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. THAT MAKES IT LOWER CONFIDENCE...BUT
STILL OPTED TO ISSUE ADVY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ011-
     014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ535-536.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210119
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
919 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A
COLD FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 89 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
ERN VA PIEDMONT...CNTRL VA AND NRN VA UNTIL 10 PM.

LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE VA/NC PIEDMONT THIS
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN A FAVORABLE AIRMASS IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THETA-E ADVECTION AND TEMPS
IN THE MID-UPPER 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S HAS
RESULTED IN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WITH MLCAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG. VERY LITTLE INHIBITION ANALYZED WITH
MLCAPE ON THE RNK SOUNDING -35 J/KG. NOSE OF HIGHER PWATS AROUND
1 TO 1.2 INCHES ADVECTING INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. ALOFT...SHORTWAVE VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR LIFTING OVER THE
CAROLINAS WILL PROVIDE ADEQUATE UVM OVER THE REGION. THE RESULT
WILL BE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THRU LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE DISCRETE
CELLS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BASED ON 30-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR
EXPECT CELLS TO BECOME LINEAR EARLY THIS EVENING OVER THE
PIEDMONT. STORMS THEN LIFT QUICKLY NEWD IN 30-40 KT MEAN FLOW AS
THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING. DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE STILL THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS IN THE WATCH AREA. WHILE THERE IS SOME DIRECTION
SHEAR/HELICITY...LCL HEIGHTS OF 1000-1500 M WILL LIMIT THE TORNADO
THREAT. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO EXPECTED. ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE OVER SE VA/NE NC...BUT TIMING IS NOT
FAVORABLE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE DECREASE.

COLD FRONT REACHES THE COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT...PUSHING OFFSHORE
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. EXPECT ALL PRECIP TO BE OFFSHORE BY
MIDNIGHT...WITH CLEARING W TO E LATE. LOWS RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S
NW TO LOW 60S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STACKED UPPER LOW ANCHORS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SRN CANADA
THRU THE SHORT TERM PERIOD THANKS TO BLOCKY FLOW OVER THE HIGH
LATITUDES. IN WAKE OF TONIGHTS (MON NIGHTS) COLD FRONT...HIGH
PRESSURE FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE SE STATES TUES...EXTENDING
NEWD OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS AND A
WLY WIND. HIGHS FORECAST IN THE UPPER 60S E TO LOW 70S W UNDER A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL ROUND THE
BASE OF THE UPPER LOW...WITH THE FIRST ROUNDING THE BASE TUES NIGHT-
WEDS. ASSOCIATED FAST MOVING COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE OH VALLEY
WEDS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE SE COAST WEDS...WITH INCREASING
SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA. WEAK FRONT REACHES THE
CNTRL APPALACHIANS WEDS AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE-
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NRN LOCAL AREA WEDS AFTERNOON...CLOSEST TO
BEST MOISTURE/DYNAMICS. HIGHS WEDS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 70S.
FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WEDS NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE-CHANCE POPS ALONG THE COAST WEDS NIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THURS MORNING. WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY THURS MORNING
AS SRN STREAM ENERGY TRAVERSES THE GULF STATES. GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS
KEEP MEASURABLE PRECIP SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA THURS...BUT NAM/SREF
SOLUTIONS SPREAD PRECIP INTO S AND SE VA/NE NC. WILL CARRY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURS ACROSS THOSE AREAS BASED ON UNCERTAINTY. COOLER
THURS WITH WNW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA THURS NIGHT FOLLOWED BY COOL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW. DRY WITH LOWS BOTH THURS AND FRI
NIGHTS 40-50 XCPT A FEW U30S NWRN MOST CNTYS. HIGHS FRI M-U60S.

NXT SYSTM PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE CAROLINAS SAT. ECMWF SOMEWHAT
FRTHR SOUTH WITH ITS MOISTURE FIELDS THAN GFS. BEST SPRT FOR PCPN
WILL BE ACROSS SRN HALF OF FA WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED.
SLGHT CHC ACROSS THE NRTH. COOL SAT WITH HIGHS 60-65. PCPN ENDS SAT
EVE AS SYSTM EXITS OFF THE COAST. LOWS IN THE 40S.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES ERLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANY PCPN
STAYING SOUTH OF FA. DRY WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND. HIGHS SUN
IN THE L-M60S. LOWS SUN NIGHT IN THE 40S. HIGHS MON M-U60S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...THE COLD FRONT WAS SITUATED OVER WEST VIRGINIA AND IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 10 AND 14Z. CONVECTION HAS
BEEN RATHER ISOLATED SO FAR AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING CUT OFF...
WIDESPREAD TSTMS ARE UNLIKELY. WITH TSTMS OVER MD/NRN VA MORE
WIDESPREAD...SHOWERS MAY REACH SBY AND HAVE THEM THERE AFT 04Z.
CANNOT RULE OUT A TSTM OVERNIGHT BUT NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAF.

S WINDS GRADUALLY VEER OVERNIGHT BECOMING W/NW FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AND
BACK TO THE WEST ON TUESDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS MAINLY AT RIC
AND SBY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT...SO WILL CONT THE SCA HEADLINES WITH
AN EMPHASIS ON SUBSIDING CONDITIONS THROUGH TUES. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. SW WINDS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST BUT REMAIN BLO 20 KTS...SO NO HEADLINES (WIND
WISE) XPCTD BEHIND THE FRNT.

NEXT TROF / FRONT PROGGED ACROSS THE WATERS WED NIGHT / ERLY
THURSDAY SWITCHING THE WNDS TO A NW THEN N DIRECTION. ONCE
AGAIN...SURGE BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY NOT STRONG ENUF TO GENERATE
HEADLINES. NW FLOW SETS UP BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING BLO SCA LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
OVERNIGHT RAINFALL OF ONE TO ONE HALF INCH RESULTED IN RISES OVER
AREA RIVERS DURING THE DAY. MINOR FLOODING ON THE RIVANNA RIVER AT
PALMYRA SHOULD END BEFORE MIDNIGHT. RISES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT FOR THE JAMES RIVER...WITH THE RICHMOND WESTHAM GAUGE
APPROACHING MINOR FLOODING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THIS EVENING WILL HELP MAINTAIN ~1.0 FT
ANOMALIES IN THE MIDDLE BAY THROUGH TONIGHT. TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES OFFSHORE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/SAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ/MPR
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210119
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
919 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A
COLD FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 89 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
ERN VA PIEDMONT...CNTRL VA AND NRN VA UNTIL 10 PM.

LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE VA/NC PIEDMONT THIS
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN A FAVORABLE AIRMASS IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THETA-E ADVECTION AND TEMPS
IN THE MID-UPPER 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S HAS
RESULTED IN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WITH MLCAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG. VERY LITTLE INHIBITION ANALYZED WITH
MLCAPE ON THE RNK SOUNDING -35 J/KG. NOSE OF HIGHER PWATS AROUND
1 TO 1.2 INCHES ADVECTING INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. ALOFT...SHORTWAVE VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR LIFTING OVER THE
CAROLINAS WILL PROVIDE ADEQUATE UVM OVER THE REGION. THE RESULT
WILL BE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THRU LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE DISCRETE
CELLS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BASED ON 30-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR
EXPECT CELLS TO BECOME LINEAR EARLY THIS EVENING OVER THE
PIEDMONT. STORMS THEN LIFT QUICKLY NEWD IN 30-40 KT MEAN FLOW AS
THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING. DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE STILL THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS IN THE WATCH AREA. WHILE THERE IS SOME DIRECTION
SHEAR/HELICITY...LCL HEIGHTS OF 1000-1500 M WILL LIMIT THE TORNADO
THREAT. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO EXPECTED. ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE OVER SE VA/NE NC...BUT TIMING IS NOT
FAVORABLE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE DECREASE.

COLD FRONT REACHES THE COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT...PUSHING OFFSHORE
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. EXPECT ALL PRECIP TO BE OFFSHORE BY
MIDNIGHT...WITH CLEARING W TO E LATE. LOWS RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S
NW TO LOW 60S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STACKED UPPER LOW ANCHORS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SRN CANADA
THRU THE SHORT TERM PERIOD THANKS TO BLOCKY FLOW OVER THE HIGH
LATITUDES. IN WAKE OF TONIGHTS (MON NIGHTS) COLD FRONT...HIGH
PRESSURE FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE SE STATES TUES...EXTENDING
NEWD OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS AND A
WLY WIND. HIGHS FORECAST IN THE UPPER 60S E TO LOW 70S W UNDER A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL ROUND THE
BASE OF THE UPPER LOW...WITH THE FIRST ROUNDING THE BASE TUES NIGHT-
WEDS. ASSOCIATED FAST MOVING COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE OH VALLEY
WEDS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE SE COAST WEDS...WITH INCREASING
SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA. WEAK FRONT REACHES THE
CNTRL APPALACHIANS WEDS AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE-
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NRN LOCAL AREA WEDS AFTERNOON...CLOSEST TO
BEST MOISTURE/DYNAMICS. HIGHS WEDS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 70S.
FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WEDS NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE-CHANCE POPS ALONG THE COAST WEDS NIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THURS MORNING. WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY THURS MORNING
AS SRN STREAM ENERGY TRAVERSES THE GULF STATES. GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS
KEEP MEASURABLE PRECIP SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA THURS...BUT NAM/SREF
SOLUTIONS SPREAD PRECIP INTO S AND SE VA/NE NC. WILL CARRY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURS ACROSS THOSE AREAS BASED ON UNCERTAINTY. COOLER
THURS WITH WNW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA THURS NIGHT FOLLOWED BY COOL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW. DRY WITH LOWS BOTH THURS AND FRI
NIGHTS 40-50 XCPT A FEW U30S NWRN MOST CNTYS. HIGHS FRI M-U60S.

NXT SYSTM PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE CAROLINAS SAT. ECMWF SOMEWHAT
FRTHR SOUTH WITH ITS MOISTURE FIELDS THAN GFS. BEST SPRT FOR PCPN
WILL BE ACROSS SRN HALF OF FA WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED.
SLGHT CHC ACROSS THE NRTH. COOL SAT WITH HIGHS 60-65. PCPN ENDS SAT
EVE AS SYSTM EXITS OFF THE COAST. LOWS IN THE 40S.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES ERLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANY PCPN
STAYING SOUTH OF FA. DRY WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND. HIGHS SUN
IN THE L-M60S. LOWS SUN NIGHT IN THE 40S. HIGHS MON M-U60S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...THE COLD FRONT WAS SITUATED OVER WEST VIRGINIA AND IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 10 AND 14Z. CONVECTION HAS
BEEN RATHER ISOLATED SO FAR AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING CUT OFF...
WIDESPREAD TSTMS ARE UNLIKELY. WITH TSTMS OVER MD/NRN VA MORE
WIDESPREAD...SHOWERS MAY REACH SBY AND HAVE THEM THERE AFT 04Z.
CANNOT RULE OUT A TSTM OVERNIGHT BUT NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAF.

S WINDS GRADUALLY VEER OVERNIGHT BECOMING W/NW FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AND
BACK TO THE WEST ON TUESDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS MAINLY AT RIC
AND SBY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT...SO WILL CONT THE SCA HEADLINES WITH
AN EMPHASIS ON SUBSIDING CONDITIONS THROUGH TUES. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. SW WINDS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST BUT REMAIN BLO 20 KTS...SO NO HEADLINES (WIND
WISE) XPCTD BEHIND THE FRNT.

NEXT TROF / FRONT PROGGED ACROSS THE WATERS WED NIGHT / ERLY
THURSDAY SWITCHING THE WNDS TO A NW THEN N DIRECTION. ONCE
AGAIN...SURGE BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY NOT STRONG ENUF TO GENERATE
HEADLINES. NW FLOW SETS UP BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING BLO SCA LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
OVERNIGHT RAINFALL OF ONE TO ONE HALF INCH RESULTED IN RISES OVER
AREA RIVERS DURING THE DAY. MINOR FLOODING ON THE RIVANNA RIVER AT
PALMYRA SHOULD END BEFORE MIDNIGHT. RISES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT FOR THE JAMES RIVER...WITH THE RICHMOND WESTHAM GAUGE
APPROACHING MINOR FLOODING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THIS EVENING WILL HELP MAINTAIN ~1.0 FT
ANOMALIES IN THE MIDDLE BAY THROUGH TONIGHT. TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES OFFSHORE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/SAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ/MPR
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210119
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
919 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A
COLD FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 89 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
ERN VA PIEDMONT...CNTRL VA AND NRN VA UNTIL 10 PM.

LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE VA/NC PIEDMONT THIS
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN A FAVORABLE AIRMASS IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THETA-E ADVECTION AND TEMPS
IN THE MID-UPPER 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S HAS
RESULTED IN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WITH MLCAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG. VERY LITTLE INHIBITION ANALYZED WITH
MLCAPE ON THE RNK SOUNDING -35 J/KG. NOSE OF HIGHER PWATS AROUND
1 TO 1.2 INCHES ADVECTING INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. ALOFT...SHORTWAVE VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR LIFTING OVER THE
CAROLINAS WILL PROVIDE ADEQUATE UVM OVER THE REGION. THE RESULT
WILL BE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THRU LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE DISCRETE
CELLS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BASED ON 30-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR
EXPECT CELLS TO BECOME LINEAR EARLY THIS EVENING OVER THE
PIEDMONT. STORMS THEN LIFT QUICKLY NEWD IN 30-40 KT MEAN FLOW AS
THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING. DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE STILL THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS IN THE WATCH AREA. WHILE THERE IS SOME DIRECTION
SHEAR/HELICITY...LCL HEIGHTS OF 1000-1500 M WILL LIMIT THE TORNADO
THREAT. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO EXPECTED. ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE OVER SE VA/NE NC...BUT TIMING IS NOT
FAVORABLE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE DECREASE.

COLD FRONT REACHES THE COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT...PUSHING OFFSHORE
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. EXPECT ALL PRECIP TO BE OFFSHORE BY
MIDNIGHT...WITH CLEARING W TO E LATE. LOWS RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S
NW TO LOW 60S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STACKED UPPER LOW ANCHORS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SRN CANADA
THRU THE SHORT TERM PERIOD THANKS TO BLOCKY FLOW OVER THE HIGH
LATITUDES. IN WAKE OF TONIGHTS (MON NIGHTS) COLD FRONT...HIGH
PRESSURE FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE SE STATES TUES...EXTENDING
NEWD OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS AND A
WLY WIND. HIGHS FORECAST IN THE UPPER 60S E TO LOW 70S W UNDER A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL ROUND THE
BASE OF THE UPPER LOW...WITH THE FIRST ROUNDING THE BASE TUES NIGHT-
WEDS. ASSOCIATED FAST MOVING COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE OH VALLEY
WEDS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE SE COAST WEDS...WITH INCREASING
SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA. WEAK FRONT REACHES THE
CNTRL APPALACHIANS WEDS AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE-
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NRN LOCAL AREA WEDS AFTERNOON...CLOSEST TO
BEST MOISTURE/DYNAMICS. HIGHS WEDS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 70S.
FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WEDS NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE-CHANCE POPS ALONG THE COAST WEDS NIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THURS MORNING. WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY THURS MORNING
AS SRN STREAM ENERGY TRAVERSES THE GULF STATES. GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS
KEEP MEASURABLE PRECIP SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA THURS...BUT NAM/SREF
SOLUTIONS SPREAD PRECIP INTO S AND SE VA/NE NC. WILL CARRY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURS ACROSS THOSE AREAS BASED ON UNCERTAINTY. COOLER
THURS WITH WNW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA THURS NIGHT FOLLOWED BY COOL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW. DRY WITH LOWS BOTH THURS AND FRI
NIGHTS 40-50 XCPT A FEW U30S NWRN MOST CNTYS. HIGHS FRI M-U60S.

NXT SYSTM PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE CAROLINAS SAT. ECMWF SOMEWHAT
FRTHR SOUTH WITH ITS MOISTURE FIELDS THAN GFS. BEST SPRT FOR PCPN
WILL BE ACROSS SRN HALF OF FA WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED.
SLGHT CHC ACROSS THE NRTH. COOL SAT WITH HIGHS 60-65. PCPN ENDS SAT
EVE AS SYSTM EXITS OFF THE COAST. LOWS IN THE 40S.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES ERLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANY PCPN
STAYING SOUTH OF FA. DRY WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND. HIGHS SUN
IN THE L-M60S. LOWS SUN NIGHT IN THE 40S. HIGHS MON M-U60S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...THE COLD FRONT WAS SITUATED OVER WEST VIRGINIA AND IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 10 AND 14Z. CONVECTION HAS
BEEN RATHER ISOLATED SO FAR AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING CUT OFF...
WIDESPREAD TSTMS ARE UNLIKELY. WITH TSTMS OVER MD/NRN VA MORE
WIDESPREAD...SHOWERS MAY REACH SBY AND HAVE THEM THERE AFT 04Z.
CANNOT RULE OUT A TSTM OVERNIGHT BUT NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAF.

S WINDS GRADUALLY VEER OVERNIGHT BECOMING W/NW FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AND
BACK TO THE WEST ON TUESDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS MAINLY AT RIC
AND SBY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT...SO WILL CONT THE SCA HEADLINES WITH
AN EMPHASIS ON SUBSIDING CONDITIONS THROUGH TUES. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. SW WINDS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST BUT REMAIN BLO 20 KTS...SO NO HEADLINES (WIND
WISE) XPCTD BEHIND THE FRNT.

NEXT TROF / FRONT PROGGED ACROSS THE WATERS WED NIGHT / ERLY
THURSDAY SWITCHING THE WNDS TO A NW THEN N DIRECTION. ONCE
AGAIN...SURGE BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY NOT STRONG ENUF TO GENERATE
HEADLINES. NW FLOW SETS UP BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING BLO SCA LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
OVERNIGHT RAINFALL OF ONE TO ONE HALF INCH RESULTED IN RISES OVER
AREA RIVERS DURING THE DAY. MINOR FLOODING ON THE RIVANNA RIVER AT
PALMYRA SHOULD END BEFORE MIDNIGHT. RISES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT FOR THE JAMES RIVER...WITH THE RICHMOND WESTHAM GAUGE
APPROACHING MINOR FLOODING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THIS EVENING WILL HELP MAINTAIN ~1.0 FT
ANOMALIES IN THE MIDDLE BAY THROUGH TONIGHT. TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES OFFSHORE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/SAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ/MPR
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210119
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
919 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A
COLD FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 89 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
ERN VA PIEDMONT...CNTRL VA AND NRN VA UNTIL 10 PM.

LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE VA/NC PIEDMONT THIS
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN A FAVORABLE AIRMASS IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THETA-E ADVECTION AND TEMPS
IN THE MID-UPPER 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S HAS
RESULTED IN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WITH MLCAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG. VERY LITTLE INHIBITION ANALYZED WITH
MLCAPE ON THE RNK SOUNDING -35 J/KG. NOSE OF HIGHER PWATS AROUND
1 TO 1.2 INCHES ADVECTING INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. ALOFT...SHORTWAVE VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR LIFTING OVER THE
CAROLINAS WILL PROVIDE ADEQUATE UVM OVER THE REGION. THE RESULT
WILL BE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THRU LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE DISCRETE
CELLS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BASED ON 30-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR
EXPECT CELLS TO BECOME LINEAR EARLY THIS EVENING OVER THE
PIEDMONT. STORMS THEN LIFT QUICKLY NEWD IN 30-40 KT MEAN FLOW AS
THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING. DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE STILL THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS IN THE WATCH AREA. WHILE THERE IS SOME DIRECTION
SHEAR/HELICITY...LCL HEIGHTS OF 1000-1500 M WILL LIMIT THE TORNADO
THREAT. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO EXPECTED. ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE OVER SE VA/NE NC...BUT TIMING IS NOT
FAVORABLE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE DECREASE.

COLD FRONT REACHES THE COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT...PUSHING OFFSHORE
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. EXPECT ALL PRECIP TO BE OFFSHORE BY
MIDNIGHT...WITH CLEARING W TO E LATE. LOWS RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S
NW TO LOW 60S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STACKED UPPER LOW ANCHORS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SRN CANADA
THRU THE SHORT TERM PERIOD THANKS TO BLOCKY FLOW OVER THE HIGH
LATITUDES. IN WAKE OF TONIGHTS (MON NIGHTS) COLD FRONT...HIGH
PRESSURE FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE SE STATES TUES...EXTENDING
NEWD OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS AND A
WLY WIND. HIGHS FORECAST IN THE UPPER 60S E TO LOW 70S W UNDER A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL ROUND THE
BASE OF THE UPPER LOW...WITH THE FIRST ROUNDING THE BASE TUES NIGHT-
WEDS. ASSOCIATED FAST MOVING COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE OH VALLEY
WEDS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE SE COAST WEDS...WITH INCREASING
SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA. WEAK FRONT REACHES THE
CNTRL APPALACHIANS WEDS AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE-
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NRN LOCAL AREA WEDS AFTERNOON...CLOSEST TO
BEST MOISTURE/DYNAMICS. HIGHS WEDS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 70S.
FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WEDS NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE-CHANCE POPS ALONG THE COAST WEDS NIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THURS MORNING. WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY THURS MORNING
AS SRN STREAM ENERGY TRAVERSES THE GULF STATES. GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS
KEEP MEASURABLE PRECIP SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA THURS...BUT NAM/SREF
SOLUTIONS SPREAD PRECIP INTO S AND SE VA/NE NC. WILL CARRY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURS ACROSS THOSE AREAS BASED ON UNCERTAINTY. COOLER
THURS WITH WNW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA THURS NIGHT FOLLOWED BY COOL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW. DRY WITH LOWS BOTH THURS AND FRI
NIGHTS 40-50 XCPT A FEW U30S NWRN MOST CNTYS. HIGHS FRI M-U60S.

NXT SYSTM PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE CAROLINAS SAT. ECMWF SOMEWHAT
FRTHR SOUTH WITH ITS MOISTURE FIELDS THAN GFS. BEST SPRT FOR PCPN
WILL BE ACROSS SRN HALF OF FA WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED.
SLGHT CHC ACROSS THE NRTH. COOL SAT WITH HIGHS 60-65. PCPN ENDS SAT
EVE AS SYSTM EXITS OFF THE COAST. LOWS IN THE 40S.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES ERLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANY PCPN
STAYING SOUTH OF FA. DRY WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND. HIGHS SUN
IN THE L-M60S. LOWS SUN NIGHT IN THE 40S. HIGHS MON M-U60S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...THE COLD FRONT WAS SITUATED OVER WEST VIRGINIA AND IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 10 AND 14Z. CONVECTION HAS
BEEN RATHER ISOLATED SO FAR AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING CUT OFF...
WIDESPREAD TSTMS ARE UNLIKELY. WITH TSTMS OVER MD/NRN VA MORE
WIDESPREAD...SHOWERS MAY REACH SBY AND HAVE THEM THERE AFT 04Z.
CANNOT RULE OUT A TSTM OVERNIGHT BUT NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAF.

S WINDS GRADUALLY VEER OVERNIGHT BECOMING W/NW FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AND
BACK TO THE WEST ON TUESDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS MAINLY AT RIC
AND SBY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT...SO WILL CONT THE SCA HEADLINES WITH
AN EMPHASIS ON SUBSIDING CONDITIONS THROUGH TUES. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. SW WINDS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST BUT REMAIN BLO 20 KTS...SO NO HEADLINES (WIND
WISE) XPCTD BEHIND THE FRNT.

NEXT TROF / FRONT PROGGED ACROSS THE WATERS WED NIGHT / ERLY
THURSDAY SWITCHING THE WNDS TO A NW THEN N DIRECTION. ONCE
AGAIN...SURGE BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY NOT STRONG ENUF TO GENERATE
HEADLINES. NW FLOW SETS UP BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING BLO SCA LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
OVERNIGHT RAINFALL OF ONE TO ONE HALF INCH RESULTED IN RISES OVER
AREA RIVERS DURING THE DAY. MINOR FLOODING ON THE RIVANNA RIVER AT
PALMYRA SHOULD END BEFORE MIDNIGHT. RISES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT FOR THE JAMES RIVER...WITH THE RICHMOND WESTHAM GAUGE
APPROACHING MINOR FLOODING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THIS EVENING WILL HELP MAINTAIN ~1.0 FT
ANOMALIES IN THE MIDDLE BAY THROUGH TONIGHT. TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES OFFSHORE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/SAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ/MPR
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KRNK 202316
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
716 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...A COOLER...BREEZY...AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING WITH ANOTHER FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT MONDAY...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 89 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG TO SEVERE WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AHEAD AND ALONG A COLD FRONT.  THE MAIN
THREATS ARE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE 18Z RNK SOUNDING SHOWED A
CAP AROUND 700 MB THAT WILL BREAK QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
HEATING AND EXPECTED CAPE ABOVE 1000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER 40
KTS AND STRONG UPDRAFTS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING.

REGIONAL WSR88D IMAGE SHOWED STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION OVER
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA EXPANDING NORTHEAST INTO OUR AREA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF OUR AREA THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. STRONG 6H PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING
BREEZY AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE PIEDMONT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA TUESDAY. HIGHS TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
TO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 214 PM EDT MONDAY...

UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SITUATED RIGHT OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
NEXT SFC FRONT WORKING ACROSS BY WEDNESDAY...THOUGH WITH MORE WNW
FLOW ALOFT AND LACK OF SOUTHERLY INFLOW AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. AS SUCH HAVE LIMITED CHANCE POPS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME CHANCE INTO THE NE PIEDMONT OF
VA...WITH LESS COVERAGE INTO THE NC PIEDMONT...AS WE SHOULD SEE SOME
DOWNSLOPE DRYING AND SHEARING OF THE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. JUST
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT TO MENTION THUNDER IN THE
AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. SHOULD BE A BREEZY DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 50S OVER SE WV TO LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH CONTINUED
UPPER TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT AXIS SHIFTING MORE OVER
THE COAST. NW FLOW MAY KEEP SHOWERS GOING INTO THE MOUNTAINS WED
EVENING.  UPPER RIDGING ARRIVES OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITH SFC
HIGH IN THE TN VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT MONDAY...

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THIS FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC BUILDS
SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO FRIDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW
ARRIVES OVER THE AR/OK BORDER BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH OVERRUNNING
CLOUDS WORKING INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. BY
SATURDAY ENOUGH MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO FORM BY SATURDAY
MORNING WITH BEST FORCING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THIS SYSTEM EXITS BY
SAT NIGHT WITH SUNDAY BEING A DRY AND COOL/MILD DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S MOUNTAINS TO 60S EAST. HIGH PRESSURE TO ASSUME POSITION OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS MONDAY TO KEEP THINGS DRY.
NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MAY WORK SOME SHOWERS OUR WAY BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 651 PM EDT MONDAY...

BROKEN BANDS OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION WILL LIKELY LINGER
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE FADING WITH LOSS OF HEATING AS A
COLD FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT. THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR IN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA
WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IF A HEAVIER CLUSTER MOVES RIGHT ACROSS A
TAF SITE. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THINGS MOSTLY VFR WITH INCLUSION OF A
TEMPO OR VICINITY MENTION TO COVER SHORT TERM COVERAGE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WITH MOST CELLS LIKELY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS FOR THE
MOST PART.

PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING BREEZY AND GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS TO THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
ALSO THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...SOME MVFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. UNCERTAINTY ON HOW LOW
CLOUD BASES WILL GET ONCE THE SHOWERS CLEAR OUT TONIGHT. ANOTHER
ISSUE IS THAT ANY LOCATION THAT RECEIVED OVER AN INCH OF RAIN MAY
SEE FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
RETURN LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS AND CONTINUED GUSTY NW
WINDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION...

THEN THE NEXT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE
IN THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. OVERRUNNING CLOUDS WORKING INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. BY SATURDAY...ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO FORM BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH BEST FORCING
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 715 PM EDT MONDAY... AFTER THE IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL SINCE
YESTERDAY MORNING...WHICH SAW OVER 6 INCHES AT A FEW GAGES IN
ALLEGHANY COUNTY NC...RIVERS AND LARGE CREEKS IN THE NEW RIVER AND
UPPER ROANOKE VALLEYS HAVE MOSTLY CRESTED AND ARE FALLING EARLY
THIS EVENING. STAGES ALONG THE MAINSTEM NEW WILL CONTINUE TO RISE
DOWNSTREAM FROM RADFORD OVERNIGHT WITH GLEN LYN EXPECTED TO JUST
TOP THE 15 FOOT FLOOD STAGE AROUND MIDNIGHT. RADFORD FLOODING
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS WATER FROM ABOVE CLAYTOR LAKE IS
PASSED THROUGH. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WE COULD YET SEE RIVER
FLOOD WARNING FOR THE DAN RIVER FROM DANVILLE DOWNSTREAM TO SOUTH
BOSTON AND LOWER REACHES OF ROANOKE RIVER BUT MINOR RIVER
FLOODING APPEARS TO BE THE WORST CATEGORY TO EXPECT.
&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/JH/KK
HYDROLOGY...PC




000
FXUS61 KRNK 202316
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
716 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...A COOLER...BREEZY...AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING WITH ANOTHER FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT MONDAY...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 89 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG TO SEVERE WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AHEAD AND ALONG A COLD FRONT.  THE MAIN
THREATS ARE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE 18Z RNK SOUNDING SHOWED A
CAP AROUND 700 MB THAT WILL BREAK QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
HEATING AND EXPECTED CAPE ABOVE 1000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER 40
KTS AND STRONG UPDRAFTS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING.

REGIONAL WSR88D IMAGE SHOWED STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION OVER
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA EXPANDING NORTHEAST INTO OUR AREA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF OUR AREA THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. STRONG 6H PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING
BREEZY AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE PIEDMONT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA TUESDAY. HIGHS TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
TO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 214 PM EDT MONDAY...

UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SITUATED RIGHT OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
NEXT SFC FRONT WORKING ACROSS BY WEDNESDAY...THOUGH WITH MORE WNW
FLOW ALOFT AND LACK OF SOUTHERLY INFLOW AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. AS SUCH HAVE LIMITED CHANCE POPS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME CHANCE INTO THE NE PIEDMONT OF
VA...WITH LESS COVERAGE INTO THE NC PIEDMONT...AS WE SHOULD SEE SOME
DOWNSLOPE DRYING AND SHEARING OF THE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. JUST
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT TO MENTION THUNDER IN THE
AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. SHOULD BE A BREEZY DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 50S OVER SE WV TO LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH CONTINUED
UPPER TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT AXIS SHIFTING MORE OVER
THE COAST. NW FLOW MAY KEEP SHOWERS GOING INTO THE MOUNTAINS WED
EVENING.  UPPER RIDGING ARRIVES OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITH SFC
HIGH IN THE TN VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT MONDAY...

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THIS FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC BUILDS
SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO FRIDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW
ARRIVES OVER THE AR/OK BORDER BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH OVERRUNNING
CLOUDS WORKING INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. BY
SATURDAY ENOUGH MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO FORM BY SATURDAY
MORNING WITH BEST FORCING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THIS SYSTEM EXITS BY
SAT NIGHT WITH SUNDAY BEING A DRY AND COOL/MILD DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S MOUNTAINS TO 60S EAST. HIGH PRESSURE TO ASSUME POSITION OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS MONDAY TO KEEP THINGS DRY.
NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MAY WORK SOME SHOWERS OUR WAY BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 651 PM EDT MONDAY...

BROKEN BANDS OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION WILL LIKELY LINGER
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE FADING WITH LOSS OF HEATING AS A
COLD FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT. THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR IN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA
WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IF A HEAVIER CLUSTER MOVES RIGHT ACROSS A
TAF SITE. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THINGS MOSTLY VFR WITH INCLUSION OF A
TEMPO OR VICINITY MENTION TO COVER SHORT TERM COVERAGE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WITH MOST CELLS LIKELY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS FOR THE
MOST PART.

PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING BREEZY AND GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS TO THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
ALSO THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...SOME MVFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. UNCERTAINTY ON HOW LOW
CLOUD BASES WILL GET ONCE THE SHOWERS CLEAR OUT TONIGHT. ANOTHER
ISSUE IS THAT ANY LOCATION THAT RECEIVED OVER AN INCH OF RAIN MAY
SEE FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
RETURN LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS AND CONTINUED GUSTY NW
WINDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION...

THEN THE NEXT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE
IN THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. OVERRUNNING CLOUDS WORKING INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. BY SATURDAY...ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO FORM BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH BEST FORCING
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 715 PM EDT MONDAY... AFTER THE IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL SINCE
YESTERDAY MORNING...WHICH SAW OVER 6 INCHES AT A FEW GAGES IN
ALLEGHANY COUNTY NC...RIVERS AND LARGE CREEKS IN THE NEW RIVER AND
UPPER ROANOKE VALLEYS HAVE MOSTLY CRESTED AND ARE FALLING EARLY
THIS EVENING. STAGES ALONG THE MAINSTEM NEW WILL CONTINUE TO RISE
DOWNSTREAM FROM RADFORD OVERNIGHT WITH GLEN LYN EXPECTED TO JUST
TOP THE 15 FOOT FLOOD STAGE AROUND MIDNIGHT. RADFORD FLOODING
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS WATER FROM ABOVE CLAYTOR LAKE IS
PASSED THROUGH. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WE COULD YET SEE RIVER
FLOOD WARNING FOR THE DAN RIVER FROM DANVILLE DOWNSTREAM TO SOUTH
BOSTON AND LOWER REACHES OF ROANOKE RIVER BUT MINOR RIVER
FLOODING APPEARS TO BE THE WORST CATEGORY TO EXPECT.
&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/JH/KK
HYDROLOGY...PC



000
FXUS61 KRNK 202316
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
716 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...A COOLER...BREEZY...AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING WITH ANOTHER FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT MONDAY...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 89 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG TO SEVERE WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AHEAD AND ALONG A COLD FRONT.  THE MAIN
THREATS ARE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE 18Z RNK SOUNDING SHOWED A
CAP AROUND 700 MB THAT WILL BREAK QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
HEATING AND EXPECTED CAPE ABOVE 1000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER 40
KTS AND STRONG UPDRAFTS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING.

REGIONAL WSR88D IMAGE SHOWED STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION OVER
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA EXPANDING NORTHEAST INTO OUR AREA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF OUR AREA THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. STRONG 6H PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING
BREEZY AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE PIEDMONT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA TUESDAY. HIGHS TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
TO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 214 PM EDT MONDAY...

UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SITUATED RIGHT OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
NEXT SFC FRONT WORKING ACROSS BY WEDNESDAY...THOUGH WITH MORE WNW
FLOW ALOFT AND LACK OF SOUTHERLY INFLOW AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. AS SUCH HAVE LIMITED CHANCE POPS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME CHANCE INTO THE NE PIEDMONT OF
VA...WITH LESS COVERAGE INTO THE NC PIEDMONT...AS WE SHOULD SEE SOME
DOWNSLOPE DRYING AND SHEARING OF THE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. JUST
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT TO MENTION THUNDER IN THE
AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. SHOULD BE A BREEZY DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 50S OVER SE WV TO LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH CONTINUED
UPPER TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT AXIS SHIFTING MORE OVER
THE COAST. NW FLOW MAY KEEP SHOWERS GOING INTO THE MOUNTAINS WED
EVENING.  UPPER RIDGING ARRIVES OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITH SFC
HIGH IN THE TN VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT MONDAY...

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THIS FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC BUILDS
SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO FRIDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW
ARRIVES OVER THE AR/OK BORDER BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH OVERRUNNING
CLOUDS WORKING INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. BY
SATURDAY ENOUGH MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO FORM BY SATURDAY
MORNING WITH BEST FORCING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THIS SYSTEM EXITS BY
SAT NIGHT WITH SUNDAY BEING A DRY AND COOL/MILD DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S MOUNTAINS TO 60S EAST. HIGH PRESSURE TO ASSUME POSITION OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS MONDAY TO KEEP THINGS DRY.
NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MAY WORK SOME SHOWERS OUR WAY BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 651 PM EDT MONDAY...

BROKEN BANDS OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION WILL LIKELY LINGER
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE FADING WITH LOSS OF HEATING AS A
COLD FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT. THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR IN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA
WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IF A HEAVIER CLUSTER MOVES RIGHT ACROSS A
TAF SITE. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THINGS MOSTLY VFR WITH INCLUSION OF A
TEMPO OR VICINITY MENTION TO COVER SHORT TERM COVERAGE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WITH MOST CELLS LIKELY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS FOR THE
MOST PART.

PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING BREEZY AND GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS TO THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
ALSO THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...SOME MVFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. UNCERTAINTY ON HOW LOW
CLOUD BASES WILL GET ONCE THE SHOWERS CLEAR OUT TONIGHT. ANOTHER
ISSUE IS THAT ANY LOCATION THAT RECEIVED OVER AN INCH OF RAIN MAY
SEE FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
RETURN LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS AND CONTINUED GUSTY NW
WINDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION...

THEN THE NEXT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE
IN THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. OVERRUNNING CLOUDS WORKING INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. BY SATURDAY...ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO FORM BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH BEST FORCING
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 715 PM EDT MONDAY... AFTER THE IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL SINCE
YESTERDAY MORNING...WHICH SAW OVER 6 INCHES AT A FEW GAGES IN
ALLEGHANY COUNTY NC...RIVERS AND LARGE CREEKS IN THE NEW RIVER AND
UPPER ROANOKE VALLEYS HAVE MOSTLY CRESTED AND ARE FALLING EARLY
THIS EVENING. STAGES ALONG THE MAINSTEM NEW WILL CONTINUE TO RISE
DOWNSTREAM FROM RADFORD OVERNIGHT WITH GLEN LYN EXPECTED TO JUST
TOP THE 15 FOOT FLOOD STAGE AROUND MIDNIGHT. RADFORD FLOODING
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS WATER FROM ABOVE CLAYTOR LAKE IS
PASSED THROUGH. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WE COULD YET SEE RIVER
FLOOD WARNING FOR THE DAN RIVER FROM DANVILLE DOWNSTREAM TO SOUTH
BOSTON AND LOWER REACHES OF ROANOKE RIVER BUT MINOR RIVER
FLOODING APPEARS TO BE THE WORST CATEGORY TO EXPECT.
&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/JH/KK
HYDROLOGY...PC



000
FXUS61 KRNK 202316
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
716 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...A COOLER...BREEZY...AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING WITH ANOTHER FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT MONDAY...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 89 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG TO SEVERE WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AHEAD AND ALONG A COLD FRONT.  THE MAIN
THREATS ARE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE 18Z RNK SOUNDING SHOWED A
CAP AROUND 700 MB THAT WILL BREAK QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
HEATING AND EXPECTED CAPE ABOVE 1000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER 40
KTS AND STRONG UPDRAFTS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING.

REGIONAL WSR88D IMAGE SHOWED STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION OVER
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA EXPANDING NORTHEAST INTO OUR AREA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF OUR AREA THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. STRONG 6H PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING
BREEZY AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE PIEDMONT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA TUESDAY. HIGHS TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
TO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 214 PM EDT MONDAY...

UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SITUATED RIGHT OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
NEXT SFC FRONT WORKING ACROSS BY WEDNESDAY...THOUGH WITH MORE WNW
FLOW ALOFT AND LACK OF SOUTHERLY INFLOW AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. AS SUCH HAVE LIMITED CHANCE POPS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME CHANCE INTO THE NE PIEDMONT OF
VA...WITH LESS COVERAGE INTO THE NC PIEDMONT...AS WE SHOULD SEE SOME
DOWNSLOPE DRYING AND SHEARING OF THE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. JUST
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT TO MENTION THUNDER IN THE
AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. SHOULD BE A BREEZY DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 50S OVER SE WV TO LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH CONTINUED
UPPER TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT AXIS SHIFTING MORE OVER
THE COAST. NW FLOW MAY KEEP SHOWERS GOING INTO THE MOUNTAINS WED
EVENING.  UPPER RIDGING ARRIVES OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITH SFC
HIGH IN THE TN VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT MONDAY...

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THIS FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC BUILDS
SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO FRIDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW
ARRIVES OVER THE AR/OK BORDER BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH OVERRUNNING
CLOUDS WORKING INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. BY
SATURDAY ENOUGH MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO FORM BY SATURDAY
MORNING WITH BEST FORCING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THIS SYSTEM EXITS BY
SAT NIGHT WITH SUNDAY BEING A DRY AND COOL/MILD DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S MOUNTAINS TO 60S EAST. HIGH PRESSURE TO ASSUME POSITION OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS MONDAY TO KEEP THINGS DRY.
NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MAY WORK SOME SHOWERS OUR WAY BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 651 PM EDT MONDAY...

BROKEN BANDS OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION WILL LIKELY LINGER
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE FADING WITH LOSS OF HEATING AS A
COLD FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT. THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR IN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA
WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IF A HEAVIER CLUSTER MOVES RIGHT ACROSS A
TAF SITE. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THINGS MOSTLY VFR WITH INCLUSION OF A
TEMPO OR VICINITY MENTION TO COVER SHORT TERM COVERAGE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WITH MOST CELLS LIKELY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS FOR THE
MOST PART.

PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING BREEZY AND GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS TO THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
ALSO THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...SOME MVFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. UNCERTAINTY ON HOW LOW
CLOUD BASES WILL GET ONCE THE SHOWERS CLEAR OUT TONIGHT. ANOTHER
ISSUE IS THAT ANY LOCATION THAT RECEIVED OVER AN INCH OF RAIN MAY
SEE FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
RETURN LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS AND CONTINUED GUSTY NW
WINDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION...

THEN THE NEXT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE
IN THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. OVERRUNNING CLOUDS WORKING INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. BY SATURDAY...ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO FORM BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH BEST FORCING
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 715 PM EDT MONDAY... AFTER THE IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL SINCE
YESTERDAY MORNING...WHICH SAW OVER 6 INCHES AT A FEW GAGES IN
ALLEGHANY COUNTY NC...RIVERS AND LARGE CREEKS IN THE NEW RIVER AND
UPPER ROANOKE VALLEYS HAVE MOSTLY CRESTED AND ARE FALLING EARLY
THIS EVENING. STAGES ALONG THE MAINSTEM NEW WILL CONTINUE TO RISE
DOWNSTREAM FROM RADFORD OVERNIGHT WITH GLEN LYN EXPECTED TO JUST
TOP THE 15 FOOT FLOOD STAGE AROUND MIDNIGHT. RADFORD FLOODING
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS WATER FROM ABOVE CLAYTOR LAKE IS
PASSED THROUGH. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WE COULD YET SEE RIVER
FLOOD WARNING FOR THE DAN RIVER FROM DANVILLE DOWNSTREAM TO SOUTH
BOSTON AND LOWER REACHES OF ROANOKE RIVER BUT MINOR RIVER
FLOODING APPEARS TO BE THE WORST CATEGORY TO EXPECT.
&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/JH/KK
HYDROLOGY...PC




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 202116
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
516 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A
COLD FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 89 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
ERN VA PIEDMONT...CNTRL VA AND NRN VA UNTIL 10 PM.

LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE VA/NC PIEDMONT THIS
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN A FAVORABLE AIRMASS IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THETA-E ADVECTION AND TEMPS
IN THE MID-UPPER 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S HAS
RESULTED IN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WITH MLCAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG. VERY LITTLE INHIBITION ANALYZED WITH
MLCAPE ON THE RNK SOUNDING -35 J/KG. NOSE OF HIGHER PWATS AROUND
1 TO 1.2 INCHES ADVECTING INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. ALOFT...SHORTWAVE VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR LIFTING OVER THE
CAROLINAS WILL PROVIDE ADEQUATE UVM OVER THE REGION. THE RESULT
WILL BE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THRU LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE DISCRETE
CELLS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BASED ON 30-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR
EXPECT CELLS TO BECOME LINEAR EARLY THIS EVENING OVER THE
PIEDMONT. STORMS THEN LIFT QUICKLY NEWD IN 30-40 KT MEAN FLOW AS
THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING. DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE STILL THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS IN THE WATCH AREA. WHILE THERE IS SOME DIRECTION
SHEAR/HELICITY...LCL HEIGHTS OF 1000-1500 M WILL LIMIT THE TORNADO
THREAT. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO EXPECTED. ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE OVER SE VA/NE NC...BUT TIMING IS NOT
FAVORABLE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE DECREASE.

COLD FRONT REACHES THE COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT...PUSHING OFFSHORE
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. EXPECT ALL PRECIP TO BE OFFSHORE BY
MIDNIGHT...WITH CLEARING W TO E LATE. LOWS RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S
NW TO LOW 60S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STACKED UPPER LOW ANCHORS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SRN CANADA
THRU THE SHORT TERM PERIOD THANKS TO BLOCKY FLOW OVER THE HIGH
LATITUDES. IN WAKE OF TONIGHTS (MON NIGHTS) COLD FRONT...HIGH
PRESSURE FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE SE STATES TUES...EXTENDING
NEWD OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS AND A
WLY WIND. HIGHS FORECAST IN THE UPPER 60S E TO LOW 70S W UNDER A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL ROUND THE
BASE OF THE UPPER LOW...WITH THE FIRST ROUNDING THE BASE TUES NIGHT-
WEDS. ASSOCIATED FAST MOVING COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE OH VALLEY
WEDS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE SE COAST WEDS...WITH INCREASING
SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA. WEAK FRONT REACHES THE
CNTRL APPALACHIANS WEDS AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE-
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NRN LOCAL AREA WEDS AFTERNOON...CLOSEST TO
BEST MOISTURE/DYNAMICS. HIGHS WEDS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 70S.
FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WEDS NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE-CHANCE POPS ALONG THE COAST WEDS NIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THURS MORNING. WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY THURS MORNING
AS SRN STREAM ENERGY TRAVERSES THE GULF STATES. GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS
KEEP MEASURABLE PRECIP SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA THURS...BUT NAM/SREF
SOLUTIONS SPREAD PRECIP INTO S AND SE VA/NE NC. WILL CARRY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURS ACROSS THOSE AREAS BASED ON UNCERTAINTY. COOLER
THURS WITH WNW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA THURS NIGHT FOLLOWED BY COOL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW. DRY WITH LOWS BOTH THURS AND FRI
NIGHTS 40-50 XCPT A FEW U30S NWRN MOST CNTYS. HIGHS FRI M-U60S.

NXT SYSTM PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE CAROLINAS SAT. ECMWF SOMEWHAT
FRTHR SOUTH WITH ITS MOISTURE FIELDS THAN GFS. BEST SPRT FOR PCPN
WILL BE ACROSS SRN HALF OF FA WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED.
SLGHT CHC ACROSS THE NRTH. COOL SAT WITH HIGHS 60-65. PCPN ENDS SAT
EVE AS SYSTM EXITS OFF THE COAST. LOWS IN THE 40S.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES ERLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANY PCPN
STAYING SOUTH OF FA. DRY WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND. HIGHS SUN
IN THE L-M60S. LOWS SUN NIGHT IN THE 40S. HIGHS MON M-U60S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS VA AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH GA. SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
FORM ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT THIS AFTN AND EVENING BEFORE A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAKES ITS WAY WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. THE
COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST LATE TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION TUESDAY. EXPECT EXTREMELY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL DURING ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.

THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT...SO WILL CONT THE SCA HEADLINES WITH
AN EMPHASIS ON SUBSIDING CONDITIONS THROUGH TUES. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. SW WINDS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST BUT REMAIN BLO 20 KTS...SO NO HEADLINES (WIND
WISE) XPCTD BEHIND THE FRNT.

NEXT TROF / FRONT PROGGED ACROSS THE WATERS WED NIGHT / ERLY
THURSDAY SWITCHING THE WNDS TO A NW THEN N DIRECTION. ONCE
AGAIN...SURGE BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY NOT STRONG ENUF TO GENERATE
HEADLINES. NW FLOW SETS UP BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING BLO SCA LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
OVERNIGHT RAINFALL OF ONE TO ONE HALF INCH RESULTED IN RISES OVER
AREA RIVERS DURING THE DAY. A FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN POSTED FOR
THE RIVANNA RIVER AT PALMYRA...WHERE MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED.
RISES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT FOR THE JAMES RIVER...WITH
THE RICHMOND WESTHAM GAUGE APPROACHING MINOR FLOODING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THIS EVENING WILL HELP MAINTAIN ~1.0 FT
ANOMALIES IN THE MIDDLE BAY THROUGH TONIGHT. TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES OFFSHORE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/SAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...AJZ/MPR
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 202116
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
516 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A
COLD FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 89 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
ERN VA PIEDMONT...CNTRL VA AND NRN VA UNTIL 10 PM.

LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE VA/NC PIEDMONT THIS
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN A FAVORABLE AIRMASS IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THETA-E ADVECTION AND TEMPS
IN THE MID-UPPER 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S HAS
RESULTED IN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WITH MLCAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG. VERY LITTLE INHIBITION ANALYZED WITH
MLCAPE ON THE RNK SOUNDING -35 J/KG. NOSE OF HIGHER PWATS AROUND
1 TO 1.2 INCHES ADVECTING INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. ALOFT...SHORTWAVE VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR LIFTING OVER THE
CAROLINAS WILL PROVIDE ADEQUATE UVM OVER THE REGION. THE RESULT
WILL BE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THRU LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE DISCRETE
CELLS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BASED ON 30-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR
EXPECT CELLS TO BECOME LINEAR EARLY THIS EVENING OVER THE
PIEDMONT. STORMS THEN LIFT QUICKLY NEWD IN 30-40 KT MEAN FLOW AS
THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING. DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE STILL THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS IN THE WATCH AREA. WHILE THERE IS SOME DIRECTION
SHEAR/HELICITY...LCL HEIGHTS OF 1000-1500 M WILL LIMIT THE TORNADO
THREAT. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO EXPECTED. ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE OVER SE VA/NE NC...BUT TIMING IS NOT
FAVORABLE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE DECREASE.

COLD FRONT REACHES THE COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT...PUSHING OFFSHORE
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. EXPECT ALL PRECIP TO BE OFFSHORE BY
MIDNIGHT...WITH CLEARING W TO E LATE. LOWS RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S
NW TO LOW 60S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STACKED UPPER LOW ANCHORS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SRN CANADA
THRU THE SHORT TERM PERIOD THANKS TO BLOCKY FLOW OVER THE HIGH
LATITUDES. IN WAKE OF TONIGHTS (MON NIGHTS) COLD FRONT...HIGH
PRESSURE FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE SE STATES TUES...EXTENDING
NEWD OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS AND A
WLY WIND. HIGHS FORECAST IN THE UPPER 60S E TO LOW 70S W UNDER A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL ROUND THE
BASE OF THE UPPER LOW...WITH THE FIRST ROUNDING THE BASE TUES NIGHT-
WEDS. ASSOCIATED FAST MOVING COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE OH VALLEY
WEDS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE SE COAST WEDS...WITH INCREASING
SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA. WEAK FRONT REACHES THE
CNTRL APPALACHIANS WEDS AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE-
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NRN LOCAL AREA WEDS AFTERNOON...CLOSEST TO
BEST MOISTURE/DYNAMICS. HIGHS WEDS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 70S.
FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WEDS NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE-CHANCE POPS ALONG THE COAST WEDS NIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THURS MORNING. WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY THURS MORNING
AS SRN STREAM ENERGY TRAVERSES THE GULF STATES. GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS
KEEP MEASURABLE PRECIP SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA THURS...BUT NAM/SREF
SOLUTIONS SPREAD PRECIP INTO S AND SE VA/NE NC. WILL CARRY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURS ACROSS THOSE AREAS BASED ON UNCERTAINTY. COOLER
THURS WITH WNW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA THURS NIGHT FOLLOWED BY COOL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW. DRY WITH LOWS BOTH THURS AND FRI
NIGHTS 40-50 XCPT A FEW U30S NWRN MOST CNTYS. HIGHS FRI M-U60S.

NXT SYSTM PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE CAROLINAS SAT. ECMWF SOMEWHAT
FRTHR SOUTH WITH ITS MOISTURE FIELDS THAN GFS. BEST SPRT FOR PCPN
WILL BE ACROSS SRN HALF OF FA WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED.
SLGHT CHC ACROSS THE NRTH. COOL SAT WITH HIGHS 60-65. PCPN ENDS SAT
EVE AS SYSTM EXITS OFF THE COAST. LOWS IN THE 40S.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES ERLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANY PCPN
STAYING SOUTH OF FA. DRY WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND. HIGHS SUN
IN THE L-M60S. LOWS SUN NIGHT IN THE 40S. HIGHS MON M-U60S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS VA AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH GA. SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
FORM ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT THIS AFTN AND EVENING BEFORE A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAKES ITS WAY WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. THE
COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST LATE TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION TUESDAY. EXPECT EXTREMELY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL DURING ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.

THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT...SO WILL CONT THE SCA HEADLINES WITH
AN EMPHASIS ON SUBSIDING CONDITIONS THROUGH TUES. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. SW WINDS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST BUT REMAIN BLO 20 KTS...SO NO HEADLINES (WIND
WISE) XPCTD BEHIND THE FRNT.

NEXT TROF / FRONT PROGGED ACROSS THE WATERS WED NIGHT / ERLY
THURSDAY SWITCHING THE WNDS TO A NW THEN N DIRECTION. ONCE
AGAIN...SURGE BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY NOT STRONG ENUF TO GENERATE
HEADLINES. NW FLOW SETS UP BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING BLO SCA LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
OVERNIGHT RAINFALL OF ONE TO ONE HALF INCH RESULTED IN RISES OVER
AREA RIVERS DURING THE DAY. A FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN POSTED FOR
THE RIVANNA RIVER AT PALMYRA...WHERE MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED.
RISES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT FOR THE JAMES RIVER...WITH
THE RICHMOND WESTHAM GAUGE APPROACHING MINOR FLOODING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THIS EVENING WILL HELP MAINTAIN ~1.0 FT
ANOMALIES IN THE MIDDLE BAY THROUGH TONIGHT. TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES OFFSHORE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/SAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...AJZ/MPR
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 202011
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
411 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A
COLD FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 89 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
ERN VA PIEDMONT...CNTRL VA AND NRN VA UNTIL 10 PM.

LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE VA/NC PIEDMONT THIS
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN A FAVORABLE AIRMASS IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THETA-E ADVECTION AND TEMPS
IN THE MID-UPPER 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S HAS
RESULTED IN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WITH MLCAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG. VERY LITTLE INHIBITION ANALYZED WITH
MLCAPE ON THE RNK SOUNDING -35 J/KG. NOSE OF HIGHER PWATS AROUND
1 TO 1.2 INCHES ADVECTING INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. ALOFT...SHORTWAVE VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR LIFTING OVER THE
CAROLINAS WILL PROVIDE ADEQUATE UVM OVER THE REGION. THE RESULT
WILL BE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THRU LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE DISCRETE
CELLS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BASED ON 30-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR
EXPECT CELLS TO BECOME LINEAR EARLY THIS EVENING OVER THE
PIEDMONT. STORMS THEN LIFT QUICKLY NEWD IN 30-40 KT MEAN FLOW AS
THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING. DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE STILL THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS IN THE WATCH AREA. WHILE THERE IS SOME DIRECTION
SHEAR/HELICITY...LCL HEIGHTS OF 1000-1500 M WILL LIMIT THE TORNADO
THREAT. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO EXPECTED. ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE OVER SE VA/NE NC...BUT TIMING IS NOT
FAVORABLE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE DECREASE.

COLD FRONT REACHES THE COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT...PUSHING OFFSHORE
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. EXPECT ALL PRECIP TO BE OFFSHORE BY
MIDNIGHT...WITH CLEARING W TO E LATE. LOWS RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S
NW TO LOW 60S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STACKED UPPER LOW ANCHORS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SRN CANADA
THRU THE SHORT TERM PERIOD THANKS TO BLOCKY FLOW OVER THE HIGH
LATITUDES. IN WAKE OF TONIGHTS (MON NIGHTS) COLD FRONT...HIGH
PRESSURE FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE SE STATES TUES...EXTENDING
NEWD OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS AND A
WLY WIND. HIGHS FORECAST IN THE UPPER 60S E TO LOW 70S W UNDER A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL ROUND THE
BASE OF THE UPPER LOW...WITH THE FIRST ROUNDING THE BASE TUES NIGHT-
WEDS. ASSOCIATED FAST MOVING COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE OH VALLEY
WEDS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE SE COAST WEDS...WITH INCREASING
SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA. WEAK FRONT REACHES THE
CNTRL APPALACHIANS WEDS AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE-
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NRN LOCAL AREA WEDS AFTERNOON...CLOSEST TO
BEST MOISTURE/DYNAMICS. HIGHS WEDS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 70S.
FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WEDS NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE-CHANCE POPS ALONG THE COAST WEDS NIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THURS MORNING. WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY THURS MORNING
AS SRN STREAM ENERGY TRAVERSES THE GULF STATES. GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS
KEEP MEASURABLE PRECIP SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA THURS...BUT NAM/SREF
SOLUTIONS SPREAD PRECIP INTO S AND SE VA/NE NC. WILL CARRY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURS ACROSS THOSE AREAS BASED ON UNCERTAINTY. COOLER
THURS WITH WNW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA THURS NIGHT FOLLOWED BY COOL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW. DRY WITH LOWS BOTH THURS AND FRI
NIGHTS 40-50 XCPT A FEW U30S NWRN MOST CNTYS. HIGHS FRI M-U60S.

NXT SYSTM PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE CAROLINAS SAT. ECMWF SOMEWHAT
FRTHR SOUTH WITH ITS MOISTURE FIELDS THAN GFS. BEST SPRT FOR PCPN
WILL BE ACROSS SRN HALF OF FA WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED.
SLGHT CHC ACROSS THE NRTH. COOL SAT WITH HIGHS 60-65. PCPN ENDS SAT
EVE AS SYSTM EXITS OFF THE COAST. LOWS IN THE 40S.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES ERLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANY PCPN
STAYING SOUTH OF FA. DRY WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND. HIGHS SUN
IN THE L-M60S. LOWS SUN NIGHT IN THE 40S. HIGHS MON M-U60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS VA AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH GA. SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
FORM ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT THIS AFTN AND EVENING BEFORE A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAKES ITS WAY WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. THE
COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST LATE TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION TUESDAY. EXPECT EXTREMELY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL DURING ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.

THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT...SO WILL CONT THE SCA HEADLINES WITH
AN EMPHASIS ON SUBSIDING CONDITIONS THROUGH TUES. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. SW WINDS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST BUT REMAIN BLO 20 KTS...SO NO HEADLINES (WIND
WISE) XPCTD BEHIND THE FRNT.

NEXT TROF / FRONT PROGGED ACROSS THE WATERS WED NIGHT / ERLY
THURSDAY SWITCHING THE WNDS TO A NW THEN N DIRECTION. ONCE
AGAIN...SURGE BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY NOT STRONG ENUF TO GENERATE
HEADLINES. NW FLOW SETS UP BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING BLO SCA LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
OVERNIGHT RAINFALL OF ONE TO ONE HALF INCH RESULTED IN RISES OVER
AREA RIVERS DURING THE DAY. A FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN POSTED FOR
THE RIVANNA RIVER AT PALMYRA...WHERE MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED.
RISES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT FOR THE JAMES RIVER...WITH
THE RICHMOND WESTHAM GAUGE APPROACHING MINOR FLOODING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WILL HELP MAINTAIN ~1.0 FT
ANOMALIES IN THE MIDDLE BAY THROUGH TONIGHT. TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES OFFSHORE. NO
STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME...BUT BISHOPS HEAD WILL
COME CLOSE TO THEIR 3.25FT MINOR THRESHOLD.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/SAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...AJZ/MPR
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 202011
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
411 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A
COLD FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 89 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
ERN VA PIEDMONT...CNTRL VA AND NRN VA UNTIL 10 PM.

LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE VA/NC PIEDMONT THIS
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN A FAVORABLE AIRMASS IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THETA-E ADVECTION AND TEMPS
IN THE MID-UPPER 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S HAS
RESULTED IN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WITH MLCAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG. VERY LITTLE INHIBITION ANALYZED WITH
MLCAPE ON THE RNK SOUNDING -35 J/KG. NOSE OF HIGHER PWATS AROUND
1 TO 1.2 INCHES ADVECTING INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. ALOFT...SHORTWAVE VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR LIFTING OVER THE
CAROLINAS WILL PROVIDE ADEQUATE UVM OVER THE REGION. THE RESULT
WILL BE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THRU LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE DISCRETE
CELLS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BASED ON 30-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR
EXPECT CELLS TO BECOME LINEAR EARLY THIS EVENING OVER THE
PIEDMONT. STORMS THEN LIFT QUICKLY NEWD IN 30-40 KT MEAN FLOW AS
THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING. DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE STILL THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS IN THE WATCH AREA. WHILE THERE IS SOME DIRECTION
SHEAR/HELICITY...LCL HEIGHTS OF 1000-1500 M WILL LIMIT THE TORNADO
THREAT. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO EXPECTED. ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE OVER SE VA/NE NC...BUT TIMING IS NOT
FAVORABLE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE DECREASE.

COLD FRONT REACHES THE COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT...PUSHING OFFSHORE
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. EXPECT ALL PRECIP TO BE OFFSHORE BY
MIDNIGHT...WITH CLEARING W TO E LATE. LOWS RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S
NW TO LOW 60S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STACKED UPPER LOW ANCHORS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SRN CANADA
THRU THE SHORT TERM PERIOD THANKS TO BLOCKY FLOW OVER THE HIGH
LATITUDES. IN WAKE OF TONIGHTS (MON NIGHTS) COLD FRONT...HIGH
PRESSURE FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE SE STATES TUES...EXTENDING
NEWD OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS AND A
WLY WIND. HIGHS FORECAST IN THE UPPER 60S E TO LOW 70S W UNDER A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL ROUND THE
BASE OF THE UPPER LOW...WITH THE FIRST ROUNDING THE BASE TUES NIGHT-
WEDS. ASSOCIATED FAST MOVING COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE OH VALLEY
WEDS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE SE COAST WEDS...WITH INCREASING
SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA. WEAK FRONT REACHES THE
CNTRL APPALACHIANS WEDS AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE-
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NRN LOCAL AREA WEDS AFTERNOON...CLOSEST TO
BEST MOISTURE/DYNAMICS. HIGHS WEDS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 70S.
FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WEDS NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE-CHANCE POPS ALONG THE COAST WEDS NIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THURS MORNING. WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY THURS MORNING
AS SRN STREAM ENERGY TRAVERSES THE GULF STATES. GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS
KEEP MEASURABLE PRECIP SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA THURS...BUT NAM/SREF
SOLUTIONS SPREAD PRECIP INTO S AND SE VA/NE NC. WILL CARRY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURS ACROSS THOSE AREAS BASED ON UNCERTAINTY. COOLER
THURS WITH WNW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA THURS NIGHT FOLLOWED BY COOL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW. DRY WITH LOWS BOTH THURS AND FRI
NIGHTS 40-50 XCPT A FEW U30S NWRN MOST CNTYS. HIGHS FRI M-U60S.

NXT SYSTM PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE CAROLINAS SAT. ECMWF SOMEWHAT
FRTHR SOUTH WITH ITS MOISTURE FIELDS THAN GFS. BEST SPRT FOR PCPN
WILL BE ACROSS SRN HALF OF FA WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED.
SLGHT CHC ACROSS THE NRTH. COOL SAT WITH HIGHS 60-65. PCPN ENDS SAT
EVE AS SYSTM EXITS OFF THE COAST. LOWS IN THE 40S.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES ERLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANY PCPN
STAYING SOUTH OF FA. DRY WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND. HIGHS SUN
IN THE L-M60S. LOWS SUN NIGHT IN THE 40S. HIGHS MON M-U60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS VA AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH GA. SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
FORM ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT THIS AFTN AND EVENING BEFORE A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAKES ITS WAY WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. THE
COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST LATE TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION TUESDAY. EXPECT EXTREMELY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL DURING ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.

THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT...SO WILL CONT THE SCA HEADLINES WITH
AN EMPHASIS ON SUBSIDING CONDITIONS THROUGH TUES. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. SW WINDS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST BUT REMAIN BLO 20 KTS...SO NO HEADLINES (WIND
WISE) XPCTD BEHIND THE FRNT.

NEXT TROF / FRONT PROGGED ACROSS THE WATERS WED NIGHT / ERLY
THURSDAY SWITCHING THE WNDS TO A NW THEN N DIRECTION. ONCE
AGAIN...SURGE BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY NOT STRONG ENUF TO GENERATE
HEADLINES. NW FLOW SETS UP BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING BLO SCA LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
OVERNIGHT RAINFALL OF ONE TO ONE HALF INCH RESULTED IN RISES OVER
AREA RIVERS DURING THE DAY. A FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN POSTED FOR
THE RIVANNA RIVER AT PALMYRA...WHERE MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED.
RISES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT FOR THE JAMES RIVER...WITH
THE RICHMOND WESTHAM GAUGE APPROACHING MINOR FLOODING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WILL HELP MAINTAIN ~1.0 FT
ANOMALIES IN THE MIDDLE BAY THROUGH TONIGHT. TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES OFFSHORE. NO
STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME...BUT BISHOPS HEAD WILL
COME CLOSE TO THEIR 3.25FT MINOR THRESHOLD.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/SAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...AJZ/MPR
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 202011
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
411 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A
COLD FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 89 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
ERN VA PIEDMONT...CNTRL VA AND NRN VA UNTIL 10 PM.

LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE VA/NC PIEDMONT THIS
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN A FAVORABLE AIRMASS IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THETA-E ADVECTION AND TEMPS
IN THE MID-UPPER 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S HAS
RESULTED IN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WITH MLCAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG. VERY LITTLE INHIBITION ANALYZED WITH
MLCAPE ON THE RNK SOUNDING -35 J/KG. NOSE OF HIGHER PWATS AROUND
1 TO 1.2 INCHES ADVECTING INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. ALOFT...SHORTWAVE VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR LIFTING OVER THE
CAROLINAS WILL PROVIDE ADEQUATE UVM OVER THE REGION. THE RESULT
WILL BE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THRU LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE DISCRETE
CELLS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BASED ON 30-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR
EXPECT CELLS TO BECOME LINEAR EARLY THIS EVENING OVER THE
PIEDMONT. STORMS THEN LIFT QUICKLY NEWD IN 30-40 KT MEAN FLOW AS
THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING. DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE STILL THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS IN THE WATCH AREA. WHILE THERE IS SOME DIRECTION
SHEAR/HELICITY...LCL HEIGHTS OF 1000-1500 M WILL LIMIT THE TORNADO
THREAT. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO EXPECTED. ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE OVER SE VA/NE NC...BUT TIMING IS NOT
FAVORABLE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE DECREASE.

COLD FRONT REACHES THE COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT...PUSHING OFFSHORE
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. EXPECT ALL PRECIP TO BE OFFSHORE BY
MIDNIGHT...WITH CLEARING W TO E LATE. LOWS RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S
NW TO LOW 60S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STACKED UPPER LOW ANCHORS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SRN CANADA
THRU THE SHORT TERM PERIOD THANKS TO BLOCKY FLOW OVER THE HIGH
LATITUDES. IN WAKE OF TONIGHTS (MON NIGHTS) COLD FRONT...HIGH
PRESSURE FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE SE STATES TUES...EXTENDING
NEWD OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS AND A
WLY WIND. HIGHS FORECAST IN THE UPPER 60S E TO LOW 70S W UNDER A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL ROUND THE
BASE OF THE UPPER LOW...WITH THE FIRST ROUNDING THE BASE TUES NIGHT-
WEDS. ASSOCIATED FAST MOVING COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE OH VALLEY
WEDS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE SE COAST WEDS...WITH INCREASING
SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA. WEAK FRONT REACHES THE
CNTRL APPALACHIANS WEDS AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE-
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NRN LOCAL AREA WEDS AFTERNOON...CLOSEST TO
BEST MOISTURE/DYNAMICS. HIGHS WEDS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 70S.
FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WEDS NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE-CHANCE POPS ALONG THE COAST WEDS NIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THURS MORNING. WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY THURS MORNING
AS SRN STREAM ENERGY TRAVERSES THE GULF STATES. GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS
KEEP MEASURABLE PRECIP SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA THURS...BUT NAM/SREF
SOLUTIONS SPREAD PRECIP INTO S AND SE VA/NE NC. WILL CARRY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURS ACROSS THOSE AREAS BASED ON UNCERTAINTY. COOLER
THURS WITH WNW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA THURS NIGHT FOLLOWED BY COOL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW. DRY WITH LOWS BOTH THURS AND FRI
NIGHTS 40-50 XCPT A FEW U30S NWRN MOST CNTYS. HIGHS FRI M-U60S.

NXT SYSTM PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE CAROLINAS SAT. ECMWF SOMEWHAT
FRTHR SOUTH WITH ITS MOISTURE FIELDS THAN GFS. BEST SPRT FOR PCPN
WILL BE ACROSS SRN HALF OF FA WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED.
SLGHT CHC ACROSS THE NRTH. COOL SAT WITH HIGHS 60-65. PCPN ENDS SAT
EVE AS SYSTM EXITS OFF THE COAST. LOWS IN THE 40S.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES ERLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANY PCPN
STAYING SOUTH OF FA. DRY WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND. HIGHS SUN
IN THE L-M60S. LOWS SUN NIGHT IN THE 40S. HIGHS MON M-U60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS VA AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH GA. SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
FORM ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT THIS AFTN AND EVENING BEFORE A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAKES ITS WAY WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. THE
COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST LATE TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION TUESDAY. EXPECT EXTREMELY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL DURING ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.

THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT...SO WILL CONT THE SCA HEADLINES WITH
AN EMPHASIS ON SUBSIDING CONDITIONS THROUGH TUES. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. SW WINDS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST BUT REMAIN BLO 20 KTS...SO NO HEADLINES (WIND
WISE) XPCTD BEHIND THE FRNT.

NEXT TROF / FRONT PROGGED ACROSS THE WATERS WED NIGHT / ERLY
THURSDAY SWITCHING THE WNDS TO A NW THEN N DIRECTION. ONCE
AGAIN...SURGE BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY NOT STRONG ENUF TO GENERATE
HEADLINES. NW FLOW SETS UP BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING BLO SCA LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
OVERNIGHT RAINFALL OF ONE TO ONE HALF INCH RESULTED IN RISES OVER
AREA RIVERS DURING THE DAY. A FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN POSTED FOR
THE RIVANNA RIVER AT PALMYRA...WHERE MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED.
RISES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT FOR THE JAMES RIVER...WITH
THE RICHMOND WESTHAM GAUGE APPROACHING MINOR FLOODING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WILL HELP MAINTAIN ~1.0 FT
ANOMALIES IN THE MIDDLE BAY THROUGH TONIGHT. TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES OFFSHORE. NO
STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME...BUT BISHOPS HEAD WILL
COME CLOSE TO THEIR 3.25FT MINOR THRESHOLD.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/SAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...AJZ/MPR
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 202011
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
411 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A
COLD FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 89 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
ERN VA PIEDMONT...CNTRL VA AND NRN VA UNTIL 10 PM.

LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE VA/NC PIEDMONT THIS
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN A FAVORABLE AIRMASS IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THETA-E ADVECTION AND TEMPS
IN THE MID-UPPER 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S HAS
RESULTED IN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WITH MLCAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG. VERY LITTLE INHIBITION ANALYZED WITH
MLCAPE ON THE RNK SOUNDING -35 J/KG. NOSE OF HIGHER PWATS AROUND
1 TO 1.2 INCHES ADVECTING INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. ALOFT...SHORTWAVE VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR LIFTING OVER THE
CAROLINAS WILL PROVIDE ADEQUATE UVM OVER THE REGION. THE RESULT
WILL BE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THRU LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE DISCRETE
CELLS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BASED ON 30-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR
EXPECT CELLS TO BECOME LINEAR EARLY THIS EVENING OVER THE
PIEDMONT. STORMS THEN LIFT QUICKLY NEWD IN 30-40 KT MEAN FLOW AS
THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING. DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE STILL THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS IN THE WATCH AREA. WHILE THERE IS SOME DIRECTION
SHEAR/HELICITY...LCL HEIGHTS OF 1000-1500 M WILL LIMIT THE TORNADO
THREAT. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO EXPECTED. ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE OVER SE VA/NE NC...BUT TIMING IS NOT
FAVORABLE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE DECREASE.

COLD FRONT REACHES THE COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT...PUSHING OFFSHORE
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. EXPECT ALL PRECIP TO BE OFFSHORE BY
MIDNIGHT...WITH CLEARING W TO E LATE. LOWS RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S
NW TO LOW 60S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STACKED UPPER LOW ANCHORS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SRN CANADA
THRU THE SHORT TERM PERIOD THANKS TO BLOCKY FLOW OVER THE HIGH
LATITUDES. IN WAKE OF TONIGHTS (MON NIGHTS) COLD FRONT...HIGH
PRESSURE FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE SE STATES TUES...EXTENDING
NEWD OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS AND A
WLY WIND. HIGHS FORECAST IN THE UPPER 60S E TO LOW 70S W UNDER A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL ROUND THE
BASE OF THE UPPER LOW...WITH THE FIRST ROUNDING THE BASE TUES NIGHT-
WEDS. ASSOCIATED FAST MOVING COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE OH VALLEY
WEDS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE SE COAST WEDS...WITH INCREASING
SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA. WEAK FRONT REACHES THE
CNTRL APPALACHIANS WEDS AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE-
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NRN LOCAL AREA WEDS AFTERNOON...CLOSEST TO
BEST MOISTURE/DYNAMICS. HIGHS WEDS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 70S.
FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WEDS NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE-CHANCE POPS ALONG THE COAST WEDS NIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THURS MORNING. WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY THURS MORNING
AS SRN STREAM ENERGY TRAVERSES THE GULF STATES. GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS
KEEP MEASURABLE PRECIP SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA THURS...BUT NAM/SREF
SOLUTIONS SPREAD PRECIP INTO S AND SE VA/NE NC. WILL CARRY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURS ACROSS THOSE AREAS BASED ON UNCERTAINTY. COOLER
THURS WITH WNW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA THURS NIGHT FOLLOWED BY COOL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW. DRY WITH LOWS BOTH THURS AND FRI
NIGHTS 40-50 XCPT A FEW U30S NWRN MOST CNTYS. HIGHS FRI M-U60S.

NXT SYSTM PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE CAROLINAS SAT. ECMWF SOMEWHAT
FRTHR SOUTH WITH ITS MOISTURE FIELDS THAN GFS. BEST SPRT FOR PCPN
WILL BE ACROSS SRN HALF OF FA WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED.
SLGHT CHC ACROSS THE NRTH. COOL SAT WITH HIGHS 60-65. PCPN ENDS SAT
EVE AS SYSTM EXITS OFF THE COAST. LOWS IN THE 40S.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES ERLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANY PCPN
STAYING SOUTH OF FA. DRY WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND. HIGHS SUN
IN THE L-M60S. LOWS SUN NIGHT IN THE 40S. HIGHS MON M-U60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS VA AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH GA. SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
FORM ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT THIS AFTN AND EVENING BEFORE A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAKES ITS WAY WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. THE
COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST LATE TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION TUESDAY. EXPECT EXTREMELY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL DURING ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.

THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT...SO WILL CONT THE SCA HEADLINES WITH
AN EMPHASIS ON SUBSIDING CONDITIONS THROUGH TUES. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. SW WINDS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST BUT REMAIN BLO 20 KTS...SO NO HEADLINES (WIND
WISE) XPCTD BEHIND THE FRNT.

NEXT TROF / FRONT PROGGED ACROSS THE WATERS WED NIGHT / ERLY
THURSDAY SWITCHING THE WNDS TO A NW THEN N DIRECTION. ONCE
AGAIN...SURGE BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY NOT STRONG ENUF TO GENERATE
HEADLINES. NW FLOW SETS UP BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING BLO SCA LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
OVERNIGHT RAINFALL OF ONE TO ONE HALF INCH RESULTED IN RISES OVER
AREA RIVERS DURING THE DAY. A FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN POSTED FOR
THE RIVANNA RIVER AT PALMYRA...WHERE MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED.
RISES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT FOR THE JAMES RIVER...WITH
THE RICHMOND WESTHAM GAUGE APPROACHING MINOR FLOODING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WILL HELP MAINTAIN ~1.0 FT
ANOMALIES IN THE MIDDLE BAY THROUGH TONIGHT. TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES OFFSHORE. NO
STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME...BUT BISHOPS HEAD WILL
COME CLOSE TO THEIR 3.25FT MINOR THRESHOLD.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/SAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...AJZ/MPR
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 202001
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
401 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A
COLD FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 89 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
ERN VA PIEDMONT...CNTRL VA AND NRN VA UNTIL 10 PM.

LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE VA/NC PIEDMONT THIS
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN A FAVORABLE AIRMASS IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THETA-E ADVECTION AND TEMPS
IN THE MID-UPPER 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S HAS
RESULTED IN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WITH MLCAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG. VERY LITTLE INHIBITION ANALYZED WITH
MLCAPE ON THE RNK SOUNDING -35 J/KG. NOSE OF HIGHER PWATS AROUND
1 TO 1.2 INCHES ADVECTING INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. ALOFT...SHORTWAVE VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR LIFTING OVER THE
CAROLINAS WILL PROVIDE ADEQUATE UVM OVER THE REGION. THE RESULT
WILL BE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THRU LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE DISCRETE
CELLS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BASED ON 30-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR
EXPECT CELLS TO BECOME LINEAR EARLY THIS EVENING OVER THE
PIEDMONT. STORMS THEN LIFT QUICKLY NEWD IN 30-40 KT MEAN FLOW AS
THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING. DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE STILL THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS IN THE WATCH AREA. WHILE THERE IS SOME DIRECTION
SHEAR/HELICITY...LCL HEIGHTS OF 1000-1500 M WILL LIMIT THE TORNADO
THREAT. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO EXPECTED. ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE OVER SE VA/NE NC...BUT TIMING IS NOT
FAVORABLE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE DECREASE.

COLD FRONT REACHES THE COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT...PUSHING OFFSHORE
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. EXPECT ALL PRECIP TO BE OFFSHORE BY
MIDNIGHT...WITH CLEARING W TO E LATE. LOWS RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S
NW TO LOW 60S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STACKED UPPER LOW ANCHORS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SRN CANADA
THRU THE SHORT TERM PERIOD THANKS TO BLOCKY FLOW OVER THE HIGH
LATITUDES. IN WAKE OF TONIGHTS (MON NIGHTS) COLD FRONT...HIGH
PRESSURE FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE SE STATES TUES...EXTENDING
NEWD OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS AND A
WLY WIND. HIGHS FORECAST IN THE UPPER 60S E TO LOW 70S W UNDER A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL ROUND THE
BASE OF THE UPPER LOW...WITH THE FIRST ROUNDING THE BASE TUES NIGHT-
WEDS. ASSOCIATED FAST MOVING COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE OH VALLEY
WEDS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE SE COAST WEDS...WITH INCREASING
SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA. WEAK FRONT REACHES THE
CNTRL APPALACHIANS WEDS AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE-
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NRN LOCAL AREA WEDS AFTERNOON...CLOSEST TO
BEST MOISTURE/DYNAMICS. HIGHS WEDS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 70S.
FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WEDS NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE-CHANCE POPS ALONG THE COAST WEDS NIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THURS MORNING. WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY THURS MORNING
AS SRN STREAM ENERGY TRAVERSES THE GULF STATES. GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS
KEEP MEASURABLE PRECIP SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA THURS...BUT NAM/SREF
SOLUTIONS SPREAD PRECIP INTO S AND SE VA/NE NC. WILL CARRY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURS ACROSS THOSE AREAS BASED ON UNCERTAINTY. COOLER
THURS WITH WNW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA THURS NIGHT FOLLOWED BY COOL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW. DRY WITH LOWS BOTH THURS AND FRI
NIGHTS 40-50 XCPT A FEW U30S NWRN MOST CNTYS. HIGHS FRI M-U60S.

NXT SYSTM PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE CAROLINAS SAT. ECMWF SOMEWHAT
FRTHR SOUTH WITH ITS MOISTURE FIELDS THAN GFS. BEST SPRT FOR PCPN
WILL BE ACROSS SRN HALF OF FA WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED.
SLGHT CHC ACROSS THE NRTH. COOL SAT WITH HIGHS 60-65. PCPN ENDS SAT
EVE AS SYSTM EXITS OFF THE COAST. LOWS IN THE 40S.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES ERLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANY PCPN
STAYING SOUTH OF FA. DRY WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND. HIGHS SUN
IN THE L-M60S. LOWS SUN NIGHT IN THE 40S. HIGHS MON M-U60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS VA AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH GA. SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
FORM ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT THIS AFTN AND EVENING BEFORE A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAKES ITS WAY WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. THE
COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST LATE TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION TUESDAY. EXPECT EXTREMELY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL DURING ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.

THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT...SO WILL CONT THE SCA HEADLINES WITH
AN EMPHASIS ON SUBSIDING CONDITIONS THROUGH TUES. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. SW WINDS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST BUT REMAIN BLO 20 KTS...SO NO HEADLINES (WIND
WISE) XPCTD BEHIND THE FRNT.

NEXT TROF / FRONT PROGGED ACROSS THE WATERS WED NIGHT / ERLY
THURSDAY SWITCHING THE WNDS TO A NW THEN N DIRECTION. ONCE
AGAIN...SURGE BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY NOT STRONG ENUF TO GENERATE
HEADLINES. NW FLOW SETS UP BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING BLO SCA LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AVG QPF 0.75-2.00"...LOCALLY UP TO 2.50" OVR MOST OF THE RIVER
BASINS WILL RESULT IN RIVER LVLS TO PSBLY RISE TO 1/2-NR FULL
BANKFULL TUE INTO WED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WILL HELP MAINTAIN ~1.0 FT
ANOMALIES IN THE MIDDLE BAY THROUGH TONIGHT. TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES OFFSHORE. NO
STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME...BUT BISHOPS HEAD WILL
COME CLOSE TO THEIR 3.25FT MINOR THRESHOLD.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
      SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/SAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ/MPR
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 202001
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
401 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A
COLD FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 89 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
ERN VA PIEDMONT...CNTRL VA AND NRN VA UNTIL 10 PM.

LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE VA/NC PIEDMONT THIS
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN A FAVORABLE AIRMASS IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THETA-E ADVECTION AND TEMPS
IN THE MID-UPPER 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S HAS
RESULTED IN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WITH MLCAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG. VERY LITTLE INHIBITION ANALYZED WITH
MLCAPE ON THE RNK SOUNDING -35 J/KG. NOSE OF HIGHER PWATS AROUND
1 TO 1.2 INCHES ADVECTING INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. ALOFT...SHORTWAVE VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR LIFTING OVER THE
CAROLINAS WILL PROVIDE ADEQUATE UVM OVER THE REGION. THE RESULT
WILL BE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THRU LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE DISCRETE
CELLS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BASED ON 30-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR
EXPECT CELLS TO BECOME LINEAR EARLY THIS EVENING OVER THE
PIEDMONT. STORMS THEN LIFT QUICKLY NEWD IN 30-40 KT MEAN FLOW AS
THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING. DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE STILL THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS IN THE WATCH AREA. WHILE THERE IS SOME DIRECTION
SHEAR/HELICITY...LCL HEIGHTS OF 1000-1500 M WILL LIMIT THE TORNADO
THREAT. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO EXPECTED. ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE OVER SE VA/NE NC...BUT TIMING IS NOT
FAVORABLE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE DECREASE.

COLD FRONT REACHES THE COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT...PUSHING OFFSHORE
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. EXPECT ALL PRECIP TO BE OFFSHORE BY
MIDNIGHT...WITH CLEARING W TO E LATE. LOWS RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S
NW TO LOW 60S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STACKED UPPER LOW ANCHORS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SRN CANADA
THRU THE SHORT TERM PERIOD THANKS TO BLOCKY FLOW OVER THE HIGH
LATITUDES. IN WAKE OF TONIGHTS (MON NIGHTS) COLD FRONT...HIGH
PRESSURE FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE SE STATES TUES...EXTENDING
NEWD OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS AND A
WLY WIND. HIGHS FORECAST IN THE UPPER 60S E TO LOW 70S W UNDER A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL ROUND THE
BASE OF THE UPPER LOW...WITH THE FIRST ROUNDING THE BASE TUES NIGHT-
WEDS. ASSOCIATED FAST MOVING COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE OH VALLEY
WEDS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE SE COAST WEDS...WITH INCREASING
SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA. WEAK FRONT REACHES THE
CNTRL APPALACHIANS WEDS AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE-
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NRN LOCAL AREA WEDS AFTERNOON...CLOSEST TO
BEST MOISTURE/DYNAMICS. HIGHS WEDS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 70S.
FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WEDS NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE-CHANCE POPS ALONG THE COAST WEDS NIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THURS MORNING. WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY THURS MORNING
AS SRN STREAM ENERGY TRAVERSES THE GULF STATES. GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS
KEEP MEASURABLE PRECIP SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA THURS...BUT NAM/SREF
SOLUTIONS SPREAD PRECIP INTO S AND SE VA/NE NC. WILL CARRY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURS ACROSS THOSE AREAS BASED ON UNCERTAINTY. COOLER
THURS WITH WNW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA THURS NIGHT FOLLOWED BY COOL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW. DRY WITH LOWS BOTH THURS AND FRI
NIGHTS 40-50 XCPT A FEW U30S NWRN MOST CNTYS. HIGHS FRI M-U60S.

NXT SYSTM PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE CAROLINAS SAT. ECMWF SOMEWHAT
FRTHR SOUTH WITH ITS MOISTURE FIELDS THAN GFS. BEST SPRT FOR PCPN
WILL BE ACROSS SRN HALF OF FA WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED.
SLGHT CHC ACROSS THE NRTH. COOL SAT WITH HIGHS 60-65. PCPN ENDS SAT
EVE AS SYSTM EXITS OFF THE COAST. LOWS IN THE 40S.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES ERLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANY PCPN
STAYING SOUTH OF FA. DRY WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND. HIGHS SUN
IN THE L-M60S. LOWS SUN NIGHT IN THE 40S. HIGHS MON M-U60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS VA AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH GA. SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
FORM ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT THIS AFTN AND EVENING BEFORE A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAKES ITS WAY WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. THE
COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST LATE TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION TUESDAY. EXPECT EXTREMELY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL DURING ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.

THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT...SO WILL CONT THE SCA HEADLINES WITH
AN EMPHASIS ON SUBSIDING CONDITIONS THROUGH TUES. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. SW WINDS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST BUT REMAIN BLO 20 KTS...SO NO HEADLINES (WIND
WISE) XPCTD BEHIND THE FRNT.

NEXT TROF / FRONT PROGGED ACROSS THE WATERS WED NIGHT / ERLY
THURSDAY SWITCHING THE WNDS TO A NW THEN N DIRECTION. ONCE
AGAIN...SURGE BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY NOT STRONG ENUF TO GENERATE
HEADLINES. NW FLOW SETS UP BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING BLO SCA LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AVG QPF 0.75-2.00"...LOCALLY UP TO 2.50" OVR MOST OF THE RIVER
BASINS WILL RESULT IN RIVER LVLS TO PSBLY RISE TO 1/2-NR FULL
BANKFULL TUE INTO WED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WILL HELP MAINTAIN ~1.0 FT
ANOMALIES IN THE MIDDLE BAY THROUGH TONIGHT. TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES OFFSHORE. NO
STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME...BUT BISHOPS HEAD WILL
COME CLOSE TO THEIR 3.25FT MINOR THRESHOLD.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
      SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/SAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ/MPR
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KRNK 201926
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
326 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...A COOLER...BREEZY...AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING WITH ANOTHER FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT MONDAY...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 89 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG TO SEVERE WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AHEAD AND ALONG A COLD FRONT.  THE MAIN
THREATS ARE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE 18Z RNK SOUNDING SHOWED A
CAP AROUND 700 MB THAT WILL BREAK QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
HEATING AND EXPECTED CAPE ABOVE 1000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER 40
KTS AND STRONG UPDRAFTS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING.

REGIONAL WSR88D IMAGE SHOWED STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION OVER
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA EXPANDING NORTHEAST INTO OUR AREA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF OUR AREA THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. STRONG 6H PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING
BREEZY AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE PIEDMONT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA TUESDAY. HIGHS TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
TO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 214 PM EDT MONDAY...

UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SITUATED RIGHT OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
NEXT SFC FRONT WORKING ACROSS BY WEDNESDAY...THOUGH WITH MORE WNW
FLOW ALOFT AND LACK OF SOUTHERLY INFLOW AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. AS SUCH HAVE LIMITED CHANCE POPS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME CHANCE INTO THE NE PIEDMONT OF
VA...WITH LESS COVERAGE INTO THE NC PIEDMONT...AS WE SHOULD SEE SOME
DOWNSLOPE DRYING AND SHEARING OF THE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. JUST
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT TO MENTION THUNDER IN THE
AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. SHOULD BE A BREEZY DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 50S OVER SE WV TO LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH CONTINUED
UPPER TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT AXIS SHIFTING MORE OVER
THE COAST. NW FLOW MAY KEEP SHOWERS GOING INTO THE MOUNTAINS WED
EVENING.  UPPER RIDGING ARRIVES OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITH SFC
HIGH IN THE TN VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT MONDAY...

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THIS FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC BUILDS
SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO FRIDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW
ARRIVES OVER THE AR/OK BORDER BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH OVERRUNNING
CLOUDS WORKING INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. BY
SATURDAY ENOUGH MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO FORM BY SATURDAY
MORNING WITH BEST FORCING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THIS SYSTEM EXITS BY
SAT NIGHT WITH SUNDAY BEING A DRY AND COOL/MILD DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S MOUNTAINS TO 60S EAST. HIGH PRESSURE TO ASSUME POSITION OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS MONDAY TO KEEP THINGS DRY.
NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MAY WORK SOME SHOWERS OUR WAY BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT MONDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT IN
CONVECTION TO MVFR AND IFR AHEAD AND ALONG A COLD FRONT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY WITH THE COLD FRONT
AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION AND EXITS THIS EVENING.

THERE IS SLIGHT TO ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED GUSTS AROUND 50 KNOT MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.

PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING BREEZY AND GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS TO THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. ALSO
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...SOME MVFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. UNCERTAINTY ON HOW LOW CEILINGS
WILL GET ONCE THE SHOWERS CLEAR OUT TONIGHT. ANOTHER ISSUE IS THAT
ANY LOCATION THAT RECEIVED OVER AN INCH OF RAIN MAY SEE FOG
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN
LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS.


EXTENDED AVIATION...

THEN THE NEXT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE
IN THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. OVERRUNNING CLOUDS WORKING INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. BY SATURDAY...ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO FORM BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH BEST FORCING
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 325 PM EDT MONDAY...
AFTER THE IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL SINCE YESTERDAY MORNING...WHICH SAW
OVER 6 INCHES AT A FEW GAGES IN ALLEGHANY COUNTY NC...RIVERS AND
LARGE CREEKS IN THE NEW RIVER AND UPPER ROANOKE VALLEYS HAVE MOSTLY
CRESTED OR ARE NEARING CREST THIS AFTERNOON. STAGES ALONG THE
MAINSTEM NEW WILL CONTINUE TO RISE DOWNSTREAM FROM RADFORD OVERNIGHT
BUT EXPECTING  THE NEW TO REMAIN JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT GLEN LYN.
RADFORD FLOODING WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS WATER FROM ABOVE
CLAYTOR LAKE IS PASSED THROUGH. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WE COULD YET
SEE RIVER FLOOD WARNING FOR THE DAN RIVER FROM DANVILLE DOWNSTREAM
TO SOUTH BOSTON AND FOE LOWER REACHES OF ROANOKE RIVER BUT MINOR
RIVER FLOODING APPEARS TO BE THE WORST CATEGORY TO EXPECT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/KK
HYDROLOGY...PC




000
FXUS61 KRNK 201926
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
326 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...A COOLER...BREEZY...AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING WITH ANOTHER FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT MONDAY...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 89 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG TO SEVERE WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AHEAD AND ALONG A COLD FRONT.  THE MAIN
THREATS ARE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE 18Z RNK SOUNDING SHOWED A
CAP AROUND 700 MB THAT WILL BREAK QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
HEATING AND EXPECTED CAPE ABOVE 1000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER 40
KTS AND STRONG UPDRAFTS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING.

REGIONAL WSR88D IMAGE SHOWED STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION OVER
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA EXPANDING NORTHEAST INTO OUR AREA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF OUR AREA THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. STRONG 6H PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING
BREEZY AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE PIEDMONT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA TUESDAY. HIGHS TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
TO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 214 PM EDT MONDAY...

UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SITUATED RIGHT OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
NEXT SFC FRONT WORKING ACROSS BY WEDNESDAY...THOUGH WITH MORE WNW
FLOW ALOFT AND LACK OF SOUTHERLY INFLOW AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. AS SUCH HAVE LIMITED CHANCE POPS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME CHANCE INTO THE NE PIEDMONT OF
VA...WITH LESS COVERAGE INTO THE NC PIEDMONT...AS WE SHOULD SEE SOME
DOWNSLOPE DRYING AND SHEARING OF THE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. JUST
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT TO MENTION THUNDER IN THE
AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. SHOULD BE A BREEZY DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 50S OVER SE WV TO LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH CONTINUED
UPPER TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT AXIS SHIFTING MORE OVER
THE COAST. NW FLOW MAY KEEP SHOWERS GOING INTO THE MOUNTAINS WED
EVENING.  UPPER RIDGING ARRIVES OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITH SFC
HIGH IN THE TN VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT MONDAY...

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THIS FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC BUILDS
SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO FRIDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW
ARRIVES OVER THE AR/OK BORDER BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH OVERRUNNING
CLOUDS WORKING INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. BY
SATURDAY ENOUGH MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO FORM BY SATURDAY
MORNING WITH BEST FORCING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THIS SYSTEM EXITS BY
SAT NIGHT WITH SUNDAY BEING A DRY AND COOL/MILD DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S MOUNTAINS TO 60S EAST. HIGH PRESSURE TO ASSUME POSITION OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS MONDAY TO KEEP THINGS DRY.
NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MAY WORK SOME SHOWERS OUR WAY BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT MONDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT IN
CONVECTION TO MVFR AND IFR AHEAD AND ALONG A COLD FRONT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY WITH THE COLD FRONT
AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION AND EXITS THIS EVENING.

THERE IS SLIGHT TO ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED GUSTS AROUND 50 KNOT MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.

PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING BREEZY AND GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS TO THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. ALSO
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...SOME MVFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. UNCERTAINTY ON HOW LOW CEILINGS
WILL GET ONCE THE SHOWERS CLEAR OUT TONIGHT. ANOTHER ISSUE IS THAT
ANY LOCATION THAT RECEIVED OVER AN INCH OF RAIN MAY SEE FOG
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN
LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS.


EXTENDED AVIATION...

THEN THE NEXT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE
IN THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. OVERRUNNING CLOUDS WORKING INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. BY SATURDAY...ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO FORM BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH BEST FORCING
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 325 PM EDT MONDAY...
AFTER THE IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL SINCE YESTERDAY MORNING...WHICH SAW
OVER 6 INCHES AT A FEW GAGES IN ALLEGHANY COUNTY NC...RIVERS AND
LARGE CREEKS IN THE NEW RIVER AND UPPER ROANOKE VALLEYS HAVE MOSTLY
CRESTED OR ARE NEARING CREST THIS AFTERNOON. STAGES ALONG THE
MAINSTEM NEW WILL CONTINUE TO RISE DOWNSTREAM FROM RADFORD OVERNIGHT
BUT EXPECTING  THE NEW TO REMAIN JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT GLEN LYN.
RADFORD FLOODING WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS WATER FROM ABOVE
CLAYTOR LAKE IS PASSED THROUGH. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WE COULD YET
SEE RIVER FLOOD WARNING FOR THE DAN RIVER FROM DANVILLE DOWNSTREAM
TO SOUTH BOSTON AND FOE LOWER REACHES OF ROANOKE RIVER BUT MINOR
RIVER FLOODING APPEARS TO BE THE WORST CATEGORY TO EXPECT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/KK
HYDROLOGY...PC




000
FXUS61 KRNK 201926
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
326 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...A COOLER...BREEZY...AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING WITH ANOTHER FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT MONDAY...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 89 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG TO SEVERE WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AHEAD AND ALONG A COLD FRONT.  THE MAIN
THREATS ARE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE 18Z RNK SOUNDING SHOWED A
CAP AROUND 700 MB THAT WILL BREAK QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
HEATING AND EXPECTED CAPE ABOVE 1000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER 40
KTS AND STRONG UPDRAFTS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING.

REGIONAL WSR88D IMAGE SHOWED STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION OVER
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA EXPANDING NORTHEAST INTO OUR AREA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF OUR AREA THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. STRONG 6H PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING
BREEZY AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE PIEDMONT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA TUESDAY. HIGHS TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
TO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 214 PM EDT MONDAY...

UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SITUATED RIGHT OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
NEXT SFC FRONT WORKING ACROSS BY WEDNESDAY...THOUGH WITH MORE WNW
FLOW ALOFT AND LACK OF SOUTHERLY INFLOW AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. AS SUCH HAVE LIMITED CHANCE POPS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME CHANCE INTO THE NE PIEDMONT OF
VA...WITH LESS COVERAGE INTO THE NC PIEDMONT...AS WE SHOULD SEE SOME
DOWNSLOPE DRYING AND SHEARING OF THE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. JUST
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT TO MENTION THUNDER IN THE
AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. SHOULD BE A BREEZY DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 50S OVER SE WV TO LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH CONTINUED
UPPER TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT AXIS SHIFTING MORE OVER
THE COAST. NW FLOW MAY KEEP SHOWERS GOING INTO THE MOUNTAINS WED
EVENING.  UPPER RIDGING ARRIVES OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITH SFC
HIGH IN THE TN VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT MONDAY...

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THIS FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC BUILDS
SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO FRIDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW
ARRIVES OVER THE AR/OK BORDER BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH OVERRUNNING
CLOUDS WORKING INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. BY
SATURDAY ENOUGH MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO FORM BY SATURDAY
MORNING WITH BEST FORCING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THIS SYSTEM EXITS BY
SAT NIGHT WITH SUNDAY BEING A DRY AND COOL/MILD DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S MOUNTAINS TO 60S EAST. HIGH PRESSURE TO ASSUME POSITION OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS MONDAY TO KEEP THINGS DRY.
NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MAY WORK SOME SHOWERS OUR WAY BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT MONDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT IN
CONVECTION TO MVFR AND IFR AHEAD AND ALONG A COLD FRONT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY WITH THE COLD FRONT
AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION AND EXITS THIS EVENING.

THERE IS SLIGHT TO ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED GUSTS AROUND 50 KNOT MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.

PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING BREEZY AND GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS TO THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. ALSO
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...SOME MVFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. UNCERTAINTY ON HOW LOW CEILINGS
WILL GET ONCE THE SHOWERS CLEAR OUT TONIGHT. ANOTHER ISSUE IS THAT
ANY LOCATION THAT RECEIVED OVER AN INCH OF RAIN MAY SEE FOG
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN
LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS.


EXTENDED AVIATION...

THEN THE NEXT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE
IN THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. OVERRUNNING CLOUDS WORKING INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. BY SATURDAY...ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO FORM BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH BEST FORCING
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 325 PM EDT MONDAY...
AFTER THE IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL SINCE YESTERDAY MORNING...WHICH SAW
OVER 6 INCHES AT A FEW GAGES IN ALLEGHANY COUNTY NC...RIVERS AND
LARGE CREEKS IN THE NEW RIVER AND UPPER ROANOKE VALLEYS HAVE MOSTLY
CRESTED OR ARE NEARING CREST THIS AFTERNOON. STAGES ALONG THE
MAINSTEM NEW WILL CONTINUE TO RISE DOWNSTREAM FROM RADFORD OVERNIGHT
BUT EXPECTING  THE NEW TO REMAIN JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT GLEN LYN.
RADFORD FLOODING WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS WATER FROM ABOVE
CLAYTOR LAKE IS PASSED THROUGH. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WE COULD YET
SEE RIVER FLOOD WARNING FOR THE DAN RIVER FROM DANVILLE DOWNSTREAM
TO SOUTH BOSTON AND FOE LOWER REACHES OF ROANOKE RIVER BUT MINOR
RIVER FLOODING APPEARS TO BE THE WORST CATEGORY TO EXPECT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/KK
HYDROLOGY...PC




000
FXUS61 KRNK 201926
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
326 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...A COOLER...BREEZY...AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING WITH ANOTHER FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT MONDAY...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 89 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG TO SEVERE WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AHEAD AND ALONG A COLD FRONT.  THE MAIN
THREATS ARE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE 18Z RNK SOUNDING SHOWED A
CAP AROUND 700 MB THAT WILL BREAK QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
HEATING AND EXPECTED CAPE ABOVE 1000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER 40
KTS AND STRONG UPDRAFTS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING.

REGIONAL WSR88D IMAGE SHOWED STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION OVER
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA EXPANDING NORTHEAST INTO OUR AREA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF OUR AREA THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. STRONG 6H PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING
BREEZY AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE PIEDMONT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA TUESDAY. HIGHS TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
TO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 214 PM EDT MONDAY...

UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SITUATED RIGHT OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
NEXT SFC FRONT WORKING ACROSS BY WEDNESDAY...THOUGH WITH MORE WNW
FLOW ALOFT AND LACK OF SOUTHERLY INFLOW AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. AS SUCH HAVE LIMITED CHANCE POPS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME CHANCE INTO THE NE PIEDMONT OF
VA...WITH LESS COVERAGE INTO THE NC PIEDMONT...AS WE SHOULD SEE SOME
DOWNSLOPE DRYING AND SHEARING OF THE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. JUST
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT TO MENTION THUNDER IN THE
AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. SHOULD BE A BREEZY DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 50S OVER SE WV TO LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH CONTINUED
UPPER TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT AXIS SHIFTING MORE OVER
THE COAST. NW FLOW MAY KEEP SHOWERS GOING INTO THE MOUNTAINS WED
EVENING.  UPPER RIDGING ARRIVES OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITH SFC
HIGH IN THE TN VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT MONDAY...

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THIS FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC BUILDS
SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO FRIDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW
ARRIVES OVER THE AR/OK BORDER BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH OVERRUNNING
CLOUDS WORKING INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. BY
SATURDAY ENOUGH MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO FORM BY SATURDAY
MORNING WITH BEST FORCING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THIS SYSTEM EXITS BY
SAT NIGHT WITH SUNDAY BEING A DRY AND COOL/MILD DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S MOUNTAINS TO 60S EAST. HIGH PRESSURE TO ASSUME POSITION OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS MONDAY TO KEEP THINGS DRY.
NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MAY WORK SOME SHOWERS OUR WAY BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT MONDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT IN
CONVECTION TO MVFR AND IFR AHEAD AND ALONG A COLD FRONT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY WITH THE COLD FRONT
AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION AND EXITS THIS EVENING.

THERE IS SLIGHT TO ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED GUSTS AROUND 50 KNOT MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.

PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING BREEZY AND GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS TO THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. ALSO
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...SOME MVFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. UNCERTAINTY ON HOW LOW CEILINGS
WILL GET ONCE THE SHOWERS CLEAR OUT TONIGHT. ANOTHER ISSUE IS THAT
ANY LOCATION THAT RECEIVED OVER AN INCH OF RAIN MAY SEE FOG
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN
LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS.


EXTENDED AVIATION...

THEN THE NEXT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE
IN THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. OVERRUNNING CLOUDS WORKING INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. BY SATURDAY...ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO FORM BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH BEST FORCING
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 325 PM EDT MONDAY...
AFTER THE IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL SINCE YESTERDAY MORNING...WHICH SAW
OVER 6 INCHES AT A FEW GAGES IN ALLEGHANY COUNTY NC...RIVERS AND
LARGE CREEKS IN THE NEW RIVER AND UPPER ROANOKE VALLEYS HAVE MOSTLY
CRESTED OR ARE NEARING CREST THIS AFTERNOON. STAGES ALONG THE
MAINSTEM NEW WILL CONTINUE TO RISE DOWNSTREAM FROM RADFORD OVERNIGHT
BUT EXPECTING  THE NEW TO REMAIN JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT GLEN LYN.
RADFORD FLOODING WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS WATER FROM ABOVE
CLAYTOR LAKE IS PASSED THROUGH. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WE COULD YET
SEE RIVER FLOOD WARNING FOR THE DAN RIVER FROM DANVILLE DOWNSTREAM
TO SOUTH BOSTON AND FOE LOWER REACHES OF ROANOKE RIVER BUT MINOR
RIVER FLOODING APPEARS TO BE THE WORST CATEGORY TO EXPECT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/KK
HYDROLOGY...PC




000
FXUS61 KLWX 201925
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
325 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT RESIDES JUST NORTH OF THE AREA LATE TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. AN
UPPER LOW WILL THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC WMFNT HAS JUST SNUCK OVER THE MD/PA BORDER. CDFNT STILL ACROSS
WVA. ALTHO CWFA W/IN WARM SECTOR...A CPL OF CHALLENGES HAVE CROPPED
UP. FIRST IS THE DEBRIS CI WHICH HAS IMPEDED SGFNT WARMING. SECOND
ARE MID LVL CAPS AT H8 AND H6. THE COMBO OF THE TWO HV RESULTED IN A
COLUMN THAT STILL IS STBL. INITIATION HAS OCCURRED W OF THE CWFA...
IN A MORE FVRBL ENVIRONMENT.

TREND IN SOME GDNC IS TO DELAY ONSET OF PCPN. THE GDNC SETS THAT
HAVENT CAUGHT ONTO THIS TREND HV BEEN DVLPG PCPN TOO SOON...AND HV
BEEN NEGLECTED. BELIEVE THAT MID LVL COOLING WL STILL TAKE PLACE...
AND THE CI SOON TO DEPART. THEREFORE...STILL BELIEVE THAT WE WL
BE DSTBLZG SOON.

DECENT SHEAR AND INCRSG INSTBY SUGGESTS THAT A THREAT FOR SVR WX
STILL EXISTS. FURTHER...AS UPR LVL SPD MAX CREEPS UP COAST JUST AHD
OF APPRCHG CDFNT...WL HV NCSRY FORCING FOR ENHANCED LIFT. THEREFORE
WL HV DELAYED ONSET...OTRW HV MADE FEW CHGS TO GOING FCST TAFTN-
EVNG. AS NAM DEPICTS...ONCE INITIATION BEGINS XPCT RAPID DVLPMNT TO
TAKE PLACE. THINK ITLL BE MIXED MODE...W/ WIND AND HAIL THREATS. FZL
AND WBZ QUITE LOW WHILE LOW-MID LVL LAPSE RATES MDT-HIGH.  IN
ADDITION...HV BACKED LLVL FLOW NEAR WMFNT. AS A RESULT...SPC HAS
ISSUED A TOR WATCH FOR ENTIRE AREA TIL 02Z.

WL HV DECREASING THUNDER CHCS AFTR SUNSET...BUT PCPN MAY LINGER TIL
MIDNGT-ISH WHEN CDFNT CLEARS AREA. AFTER THAT LOOK FOR A RAPIDLY
DRYING AMS AS WLY WINDS INCREASE. HV HELD ONTO SOME CLDS THO DUE TO
MID LVL TROF AXIS.

DP UPR LOW WL RESIDE NORTH OF THE GRTLKS TMRW...WHICH WL PROVIDE
FAST MID-LVL FLOW. KEEPING A DRY FCST W/ CLDY PERIODS AS IMPULSES
ZIP THRU THE FLOW. DOWNSLOPING WL PROVIDE THE WARMING IN SPITE OF
CAA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

NOT MUCH OF A BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS THE MID-ATLC STAYS JUST ON
THE OUTER FRINGE OF A LARGE UPPER GREAT LAKES TROUGH. ONE OF THE
WEAKER VORTS SLIDING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL SLIDE INTO
THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE APLCNS LATE TUE NIGHT. LITTLE MORE THAN
COOLER AIR WILL MAKE IT OVER THE MTNS...W/ THE MOISTURE DISSIPATING
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HEADING INTO EARLY WED...A STRONGER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING WELL TO OUR NORTH WHICH WILL ALSO
STRENGTHEN THE INCOMING COLD FRONT.

GUSTY SW WINDS WILL ARRIVE BEFORE ANY PRECIP E OF THE APLCNS...AND
GRADUALLY PULL UP OUR COOL TEMPS FROM OVERNIGHT BACK INTO A WARMER
REGIME BY MIDDAY. UNLIKE TODAY`S CONDITIONS...THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE
IS NOT EXPECTED TO MUSTER UP MUCH INSTABILITY. THE SRN HALF OF THE
CWA MAY SEE SOME WEAK CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA WILL SEE AT SOLID CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE
AVG FOR THE VA/MD PIEDMONT. QPF FAIRLY LIGHT FOR THIS PASSAGE AND A
RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF THE MID AFTN TO EVE. BY LATE EVE...MOST
OF THE PRECIP WILL BE SLIDING OUT OF THE SE PORTION OF THE CWA AND
CLOUDS WILL ALLOW EXIT OFF THE COAST.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A COLD UPPER-LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM STALLED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS...WITH
PERSISTENT CHILLY WEST OR NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION.

A TROUGH MAY BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA SATURDAY...BUT OTHER
THAN THAT IT LOOKS MAINLY DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL /I.E. 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL/ THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
HIGH STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
40S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

AM KEEPING VFR TAFS THRU THE PD. HWVR...THERE ARE OTHER
CONSIDERATIONS. NMRS TSRA WL BE DVLPG TAFTN. XPCT BRIEF CIG/VIS
RESTRICTIONS W/IN ANY STORMS. THE MITIGATING FACTOR IS AREAL CVRG.
ONCE THAT BECOME CLEAR...THEN RESTRICTIONS WL BE ADDED TO TAFS.
THREAT WINDOW WL BE 20/21Z THRU 02Z.

WLY WINDS OVNGT THRU TUE...W/ GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ATTM.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWING THRU ON WED AFTN. GUSTY SW WINDS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AND MAINLY BRIEF/SCTD SHOWER ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT
SLIDE THRU DURING THE 2ND HALF OF THE DAY.

WLY FLOW 10 KT OR SO W/ MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THU-SAT.

&&

.MARINE...

SLY FLOW TAFTN-EVE...SCA AT TIMES. STORMS POSSIBLE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL. COLD FRONT CROSSES
TONIGHT WITH WIND SHIFT TO WEST. PERHAPS A WEAKENING OF WINDS NEAR
DAWN TUESDAY...BUT THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO SCA LEVELS DURING THE DAY.

SOLID SCA WINDS POSSIBLE ON WED AHEAD OF AND ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT
IS EXPECTED TO SWING THRU THE WATERS BY LATE EVE.

SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE IN WLY SURGE BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THURSDAY...THEN LIGHTER FLOW BELOW SCA CRITERIA LIKELY FRIDAY-
SATURDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVELS STILL BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0 FT ABV ASTRO NORMS. AT THIS
RATE...WILL HAVE MINOR FLOODING AT ANNAPOLIS AND BALTIMORE. SLY
FLOW WILL REINFORCE THE POSITIVE DEPARTURES. HOWEVER...A COLD
FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING...SWINGING AROUND WIND DIRECTION RIGHT
NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. THAT MAKES IT LOWER CONFIDENCE...BUT
STILL OPTED TO ISSUE ADVY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ011-
     014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ535-536.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...GMS/HTS/DFH
MARINE...GMS/HTS/DFH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS



000
FXUS61 KLWX 201925
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
325 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT RESIDES JUST NORTH OF THE AREA LATE TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. AN
UPPER LOW WILL THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC WMFNT HAS JUST SNUCK OVER THE MD/PA BORDER. CDFNT STILL ACROSS
WVA. ALTHO CWFA W/IN WARM SECTOR...A CPL OF CHALLENGES HAVE CROPPED
UP. FIRST IS THE DEBRIS CI WHICH HAS IMPEDED SGFNT WARMING. SECOND
ARE MID LVL CAPS AT H8 AND H6. THE COMBO OF THE TWO HV RESULTED IN A
COLUMN THAT STILL IS STBL. INITIATION HAS OCCURRED W OF THE CWFA...
IN A MORE FVRBL ENVIRONMENT.

TREND IN SOME GDNC IS TO DELAY ONSET OF PCPN. THE GDNC SETS THAT
HAVENT CAUGHT ONTO THIS TREND HV BEEN DVLPG PCPN TOO SOON...AND HV
BEEN NEGLECTED. BELIEVE THAT MID LVL COOLING WL STILL TAKE PLACE...
AND THE CI SOON TO DEPART. THEREFORE...STILL BELIEVE THAT WE WL
BE DSTBLZG SOON.

DECENT SHEAR AND INCRSG INSTBY SUGGESTS THAT A THREAT FOR SVR WX
STILL EXISTS. FURTHER...AS UPR LVL SPD MAX CREEPS UP COAST JUST AHD
OF APPRCHG CDFNT...WL HV NCSRY FORCING FOR ENHANCED LIFT. THEREFORE
WL HV DELAYED ONSET...OTRW HV MADE FEW CHGS TO GOING FCST TAFTN-
EVNG. AS NAM DEPICTS...ONCE INITIATION BEGINS XPCT RAPID DVLPMNT TO
TAKE PLACE. THINK ITLL BE MIXED MODE...W/ WIND AND HAIL THREATS. FZL
AND WBZ QUITE LOW WHILE LOW-MID LVL LAPSE RATES MDT-HIGH.  IN
ADDITION...HV BACKED LLVL FLOW NEAR WMFNT. AS A RESULT...SPC HAS
ISSUED A TOR WATCH FOR ENTIRE AREA TIL 02Z.

WL HV DECREASING THUNDER CHCS AFTR SUNSET...BUT PCPN MAY LINGER TIL
MIDNGT-ISH WHEN CDFNT CLEARS AREA. AFTER THAT LOOK FOR A RAPIDLY
DRYING AMS AS WLY WINDS INCREASE. HV HELD ONTO SOME CLDS THO DUE TO
MID LVL TROF AXIS.

DP UPR LOW WL RESIDE NORTH OF THE GRTLKS TMRW...WHICH WL PROVIDE
FAST MID-LVL FLOW. KEEPING A DRY FCST W/ CLDY PERIODS AS IMPULSES
ZIP THRU THE FLOW. DOWNSLOPING WL PROVIDE THE WARMING IN SPITE OF
CAA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

NOT MUCH OF A BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS THE MID-ATLC STAYS JUST ON
THE OUTER FRINGE OF A LARGE UPPER GREAT LAKES TROUGH. ONE OF THE
WEAKER VORTS SLIDING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL SLIDE INTO
THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE APLCNS LATE TUE NIGHT. LITTLE MORE THAN
COOLER AIR WILL MAKE IT OVER THE MTNS...W/ THE MOISTURE DISSIPATING
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HEADING INTO EARLY WED...A STRONGER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING WELL TO OUR NORTH WHICH WILL ALSO
STRENGTHEN THE INCOMING COLD FRONT.

GUSTY SW WINDS WILL ARRIVE BEFORE ANY PRECIP E OF THE APLCNS...AND
GRADUALLY PULL UP OUR COOL TEMPS FROM OVERNIGHT BACK INTO A WARMER
REGIME BY MIDDAY. UNLIKE TODAY`S CONDITIONS...THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE
IS NOT EXPECTED TO MUSTER UP MUCH INSTABILITY. THE SRN HALF OF THE
CWA MAY SEE SOME WEAK CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA WILL SEE AT SOLID CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE
AVG FOR THE VA/MD PIEDMONT. QPF FAIRLY LIGHT FOR THIS PASSAGE AND A
RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF THE MID AFTN TO EVE. BY LATE EVE...MOST
OF THE PRECIP WILL BE SLIDING OUT OF THE SE PORTION OF THE CWA AND
CLOUDS WILL ALLOW EXIT OFF THE COAST.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A COLD UPPER-LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM STALLED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS...WITH
PERSISTENT CHILLY WEST OR NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION.

A TROUGH MAY BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA SATURDAY...BUT OTHER
THAN THAT IT LOOKS MAINLY DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL /I.E. 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL/ THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
HIGH STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
40S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

AM KEEPING VFR TAFS THRU THE PD. HWVR...THERE ARE OTHER
CONSIDERATIONS. NMRS TSRA WL BE DVLPG TAFTN. XPCT BRIEF CIG/VIS
RESTRICTIONS W/IN ANY STORMS. THE MITIGATING FACTOR IS AREAL CVRG.
ONCE THAT BECOME CLEAR...THEN RESTRICTIONS WL BE ADDED TO TAFS.
THREAT WINDOW WL BE 20/21Z THRU 02Z.

WLY WINDS OVNGT THRU TUE...W/ GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ATTM.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWING THRU ON WED AFTN. GUSTY SW WINDS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AND MAINLY BRIEF/SCTD SHOWER ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT
SLIDE THRU DURING THE 2ND HALF OF THE DAY.

WLY FLOW 10 KT OR SO W/ MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THU-SAT.

&&

.MARINE...

SLY FLOW TAFTN-EVE...SCA AT TIMES. STORMS POSSIBLE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL. COLD FRONT CROSSES
TONIGHT WITH WIND SHIFT TO WEST. PERHAPS A WEAKENING OF WINDS NEAR
DAWN TUESDAY...BUT THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO SCA LEVELS DURING THE DAY.

SOLID SCA WINDS POSSIBLE ON WED AHEAD OF AND ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT
IS EXPECTED TO SWING THRU THE WATERS BY LATE EVE.

SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE IN WLY SURGE BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THURSDAY...THEN LIGHTER FLOW BELOW SCA CRITERIA LIKELY FRIDAY-
SATURDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVELS STILL BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0 FT ABV ASTRO NORMS. AT THIS
RATE...WILL HAVE MINOR FLOODING AT ANNAPOLIS AND BALTIMORE. SLY
FLOW WILL REINFORCE THE POSITIVE DEPARTURES. HOWEVER...A COLD
FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING...SWINGING AROUND WIND DIRECTION RIGHT
NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. THAT MAKES IT LOWER CONFIDENCE...BUT
STILL OPTED TO ISSUE ADVY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ011-
     014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ535-536.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...GMS/HTS/DFH
MARINE...GMS/HTS/DFH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS



000
FXUS61 KLWX 201925
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
325 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT RESIDES JUST NORTH OF THE AREA LATE TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. AN
UPPER LOW WILL THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC WMFNT HAS JUST SNUCK OVER THE MD/PA BORDER. CDFNT STILL ACROSS
WVA. ALTHO CWFA W/IN WARM SECTOR...A CPL OF CHALLENGES HAVE CROPPED
UP. FIRST IS THE DEBRIS CI WHICH HAS IMPEDED SGFNT WARMING. SECOND
ARE MID LVL CAPS AT H8 AND H6. THE COMBO OF THE TWO HV RESULTED IN A
COLUMN THAT STILL IS STBL. INITIATION HAS OCCURRED W OF THE CWFA...
IN A MORE FVRBL ENVIRONMENT.

TREND IN SOME GDNC IS TO DELAY ONSET OF PCPN. THE GDNC SETS THAT
HAVENT CAUGHT ONTO THIS TREND HV BEEN DVLPG PCPN TOO SOON...AND HV
BEEN NEGLECTED. BELIEVE THAT MID LVL COOLING WL STILL TAKE PLACE...
AND THE CI SOON TO DEPART. THEREFORE...STILL BELIEVE THAT WE WL
BE DSTBLZG SOON.

DECENT SHEAR AND INCRSG INSTBY SUGGESTS THAT A THREAT FOR SVR WX
STILL EXISTS. FURTHER...AS UPR LVL SPD MAX CREEPS UP COAST JUST AHD
OF APPRCHG CDFNT...WL HV NCSRY FORCING FOR ENHANCED LIFT. THEREFORE
WL HV DELAYED ONSET...OTRW HV MADE FEW CHGS TO GOING FCST TAFTN-
EVNG. AS NAM DEPICTS...ONCE INITIATION BEGINS XPCT RAPID DVLPMNT TO
TAKE PLACE. THINK ITLL BE MIXED MODE...W/ WIND AND HAIL THREATS. FZL
AND WBZ QUITE LOW WHILE LOW-MID LVL LAPSE RATES MDT-HIGH.  IN
ADDITION...HV BACKED LLVL FLOW NEAR WMFNT. AS A RESULT...SPC HAS
ISSUED A TOR WATCH FOR ENTIRE AREA TIL 02Z.

WL HV DECREASING THUNDER CHCS AFTR SUNSET...BUT PCPN MAY LINGER TIL
MIDNGT-ISH WHEN CDFNT CLEARS AREA. AFTER THAT LOOK FOR A RAPIDLY
DRYING AMS AS WLY WINDS INCREASE. HV HELD ONTO SOME CLDS THO DUE TO
MID LVL TROF AXIS.

DP UPR LOW WL RESIDE NORTH OF THE GRTLKS TMRW...WHICH WL PROVIDE
FAST MID-LVL FLOW. KEEPING A DRY FCST W/ CLDY PERIODS AS IMPULSES
ZIP THRU THE FLOW. DOWNSLOPING WL PROVIDE THE WARMING IN SPITE OF
CAA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

NOT MUCH OF A BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS THE MID-ATLC STAYS JUST ON
THE OUTER FRINGE OF A LARGE UPPER GREAT LAKES TROUGH. ONE OF THE
WEAKER VORTS SLIDING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL SLIDE INTO
THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE APLCNS LATE TUE NIGHT. LITTLE MORE THAN
COOLER AIR WILL MAKE IT OVER THE MTNS...W/ THE MOISTURE DISSIPATING
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HEADING INTO EARLY WED...A STRONGER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING WELL TO OUR NORTH WHICH WILL ALSO
STRENGTHEN THE INCOMING COLD FRONT.

GUSTY SW WINDS WILL ARRIVE BEFORE ANY PRECIP E OF THE APLCNS...AND
GRADUALLY PULL UP OUR COOL TEMPS FROM OVERNIGHT BACK INTO A WARMER
REGIME BY MIDDAY. UNLIKE TODAY`S CONDITIONS...THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE
IS NOT EXPECTED TO MUSTER UP MUCH INSTABILITY. THE SRN HALF OF THE
CWA MAY SEE SOME WEAK CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA WILL SEE AT SOLID CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE
AVG FOR THE VA/MD PIEDMONT. QPF FAIRLY LIGHT FOR THIS PASSAGE AND A
RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF THE MID AFTN TO EVE. BY LATE EVE...MOST
OF THE PRECIP WILL BE SLIDING OUT OF THE SE PORTION OF THE CWA AND
CLOUDS WILL ALLOW EXIT OFF THE COAST.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A COLD UPPER-LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM STALLED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS...WITH
PERSISTENT CHILLY WEST OR NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION.

A TROUGH MAY BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA SATURDAY...BUT OTHER
THAN THAT IT LOOKS MAINLY DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL /I.E. 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL/ THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
HIGH STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
40S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

AM KEEPING VFR TAFS THRU THE PD. HWVR...THERE ARE OTHER
CONSIDERATIONS. NMRS TSRA WL BE DVLPG TAFTN. XPCT BRIEF CIG/VIS
RESTRICTIONS W/IN ANY STORMS. THE MITIGATING FACTOR IS AREAL CVRG.
ONCE THAT BECOME CLEAR...THEN RESTRICTIONS WL BE ADDED TO TAFS.
THREAT WINDOW WL BE 20/21Z THRU 02Z.

WLY WINDS OVNGT THRU TUE...W/ GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ATTM.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWING THRU ON WED AFTN. GUSTY SW WINDS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AND MAINLY BRIEF/SCTD SHOWER ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT
SLIDE THRU DURING THE 2ND HALF OF THE DAY.

WLY FLOW 10 KT OR SO W/ MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THU-SAT.

&&

.MARINE...

SLY FLOW TAFTN-EVE...SCA AT TIMES. STORMS POSSIBLE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL. COLD FRONT CROSSES
TONIGHT WITH WIND SHIFT TO WEST. PERHAPS A WEAKENING OF WINDS NEAR
DAWN TUESDAY...BUT THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO SCA LEVELS DURING THE DAY.

SOLID SCA WINDS POSSIBLE ON WED AHEAD OF AND ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT
IS EXPECTED TO SWING THRU THE WATERS BY LATE EVE.

SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE IN WLY SURGE BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THURSDAY...THEN LIGHTER FLOW BELOW SCA CRITERIA LIKELY FRIDAY-
SATURDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVELS STILL BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0 FT ABV ASTRO NORMS. AT THIS
RATE...WILL HAVE MINOR FLOODING AT ANNAPOLIS AND BALTIMORE. SLY
FLOW WILL REINFORCE THE POSITIVE DEPARTURES. HOWEVER...A COLD
FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING...SWINGING AROUND WIND DIRECTION RIGHT
NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. THAT MAKES IT LOWER CONFIDENCE...BUT
STILL OPTED TO ISSUE ADVY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ011-
     014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ535-536.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...GMS/HTS/DFH
MARINE...GMS/HTS/DFH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 201925
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
325 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT RESIDES JUST NORTH OF THE AREA LATE TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. AN
UPPER LOW WILL THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC WMFNT HAS JUST SNUCK OVER THE MD/PA BORDER. CDFNT STILL ACROSS
WVA. ALTHO CWFA W/IN WARM SECTOR...A CPL OF CHALLENGES HAVE CROPPED
UP. FIRST IS THE DEBRIS CI WHICH HAS IMPEDED SGFNT WARMING. SECOND
ARE MID LVL CAPS AT H8 AND H6. THE COMBO OF THE TWO HV RESULTED IN A
COLUMN THAT STILL IS STBL. INITIATION HAS OCCURRED W OF THE CWFA...
IN A MORE FVRBL ENVIRONMENT.

TREND IN SOME GDNC IS TO DELAY ONSET OF PCPN. THE GDNC SETS THAT
HAVENT CAUGHT ONTO THIS TREND HV BEEN DVLPG PCPN TOO SOON...AND HV
BEEN NEGLECTED. BELIEVE THAT MID LVL COOLING WL STILL TAKE PLACE...
AND THE CI SOON TO DEPART. THEREFORE...STILL BELIEVE THAT WE WL
BE DSTBLZG SOON.

DECENT SHEAR AND INCRSG INSTBY SUGGESTS THAT A THREAT FOR SVR WX
STILL EXISTS. FURTHER...AS UPR LVL SPD MAX CREEPS UP COAST JUST AHD
OF APPRCHG CDFNT...WL HV NCSRY FORCING FOR ENHANCED LIFT. THEREFORE
WL HV DELAYED ONSET...OTRW HV MADE FEW CHGS TO GOING FCST TAFTN-
EVNG. AS NAM DEPICTS...ONCE INITIATION BEGINS XPCT RAPID DVLPMNT TO
TAKE PLACE. THINK ITLL BE MIXED MODE...W/ WIND AND HAIL THREATS. FZL
AND WBZ QUITE LOW WHILE LOW-MID LVL LAPSE RATES MDT-HIGH.  IN
ADDITION...HV BACKED LLVL FLOW NEAR WMFNT. AS A RESULT...SPC HAS
ISSUED A TOR WATCH FOR ENTIRE AREA TIL 02Z.

WL HV DECREASING THUNDER CHCS AFTR SUNSET...BUT PCPN MAY LINGER TIL
MIDNGT-ISH WHEN CDFNT CLEARS AREA. AFTER THAT LOOK FOR A RAPIDLY
DRYING AMS AS WLY WINDS INCREASE. HV HELD ONTO SOME CLDS THO DUE TO
MID LVL TROF AXIS.

DP UPR LOW WL RESIDE NORTH OF THE GRTLKS TMRW...WHICH WL PROVIDE
FAST MID-LVL FLOW. KEEPING A DRY FCST W/ CLDY PERIODS AS IMPULSES
ZIP THRU THE FLOW. DOWNSLOPING WL PROVIDE THE WARMING IN SPITE OF
CAA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

NOT MUCH OF A BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS THE MID-ATLC STAYS JUST ON
THE OUTER FRINGE OF A LARGE UPPER GREAT LAKES TROUGH. ONE OF THE
WEAKER VORTS SLIDING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL SLIDE INTO
THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE APLCNS LATE TUE NIGHT. LITTLE MORE THAN
COOLER AIR WILL MAKE IT OVER THE MTNS...W/ THE MOISTURE DISSIPATING
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HEADING INTO EARLY WED...A STRONGER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING WELL TO OUR NORTH WHICH WILL ALSO
STRENGTHEN THE INCOMING COLD FRONT.

GUSTY SW WINDS WILL ARRIVE BEFORE ANY PRECIP E OF THE APLCNS...AND
GRADUALLY PULL UP OUR COOL TEMPS FROM OVERNIGHT BACK INTO A WARMER
REGIME BY MIDDAY. UNLIKE TODAY`S CONDITIONS...THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE
IS NOT EXPECTED TO MUSTER UP MUCH INSTABILITY. THE SRN HALF OF THE
CWA MAY SEE SOME WEAK CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA WILL SEE AT SOLID CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE
AVG FOR THE VA/MD PIEDMONT. QPF FAIRLY LIGHT FOR THIS PASSAGE AND A
RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF THE MID AFTN TO EVE. BY LATE EVE...MOST
OF THE PRECIP WILL BE SLIDING OUT OF THE SE PORTION OF THE CWA AND
CLOUDS WILL ALLOW EXIT OFF THE COAST.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A COLD UPPER-LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM STALLED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS...WITH
PERSISTENT CHILLY WEST OR NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION.

A TROUGH MAY BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA SATURDAY...BUT OTHER
THAN THAT IT LOOKS MAINLY DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL /I.E. 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL/ THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
HIGH STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
40S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

AM KEEPING VFR TAFS THRU THE PD. HWVR...THERE ARE OTHER
CONSIDERATIONS. NMRS TSRA WL BE DVLPG TAFTN. XPCT BRIEF CIG/VIS
RESTRICTIONS W/IN ANY STORMS. THE MITIGATING FACTOR IS AREAL CVRG.
ONCE THAT BECOME CLEAR...THEN RESTRICTIONS WL BE ADDED TO TAFS.
THREAT WINDOW WL BE 20/21Z THRU 02Z.

WLY WINDS OVNGT THRU TUE...W/ GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ATTM.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWING THRU ON WED AFTN. GUSTY SW WINDS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AND MAINLY BRIEF/SCTD SHOWER ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT
SLIDE THRU DURING THE 2ND HALF OF THE DAY.

WLY FLOW 10 KT OR SO W/ MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THU-SAT.

&&

.MARINE...

SLY FLOW TAFTN-EVE...SCA AT TIMES. STORMS POSSIBLE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL. COLD FRONT CROSSES
TONIGHT WITH WIND SHIFT TO WEST. PERHAPS A WEAKENING OF WINDS NEAR
DAWN TUESDAY...BUT THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO SCA LEVELS DURING THE DAY.

SOLID SCA WINDS POSSIBLE ON WED AHEAD OF AND ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT
IS EXPECTED TO SWING THRU THE WATERS BY LATE EVE.

SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE IN WLY SURGE BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THURSDAY...THEN LIGHTER FLOW BELOW SCA CRITERIA LIKELY FRIDAY-
SATURDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVELS STILL BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0 FT ABV ASTRO NORMS. AT THIS
RATE...WILL HAVE MINOR FLOODING AT ANNAPOLIS AND BALTIMORE. SLY
FLOW WILL REINFORCE THE POSITIVE DEPARTURES. HOWEVER...A COLD
FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING...SWINGING AROUND WIND DIRECTION RIGHT
NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. THAT MAKES IT LOWER CONFIDENCE...BUT
STILL OPTED TO ISSUE ADVY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ011-
     014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ535-536.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...GMS/HTS/DFH
MARINE...GMS/HTS/DFH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201903
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
303 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A
COLD FRONT LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 89 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
ERN VA PIEDMONT...CNTRL VA AND NRN VA UNTIL 10 PM.

AS OF NOON...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS WARM FRONT JUST NORTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM ~985MB
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES SWD TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
ALOFT...UPPER LOW HAS LOCATED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING SWD ALONG THE MS VALLEY. LATEST REGIONAL RADAR
MOSAIC DEPICTS LAST NIGHTS SHOWERS WELL OFFSHORE WITH DRY
CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. SKIES AVG MOSTLY
CLOUDY.

FOR TODAY...SFC LOW LIFTS NWD INTO SRN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA. SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS IN
INCREASING SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL LIFT TOWARD THE REGION. THE
AIRMASS OVER THE LOCAL AREA WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY WARM/MOIST
AND UNSTABLE...ESPECIALLY WITH A FEW HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THETA E ADVECTION ALONG WITH TEMPS IN THE
LOW-MID 80S AND DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 WILL RESULT IN A MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WITH MLCAPE VALUES PER RAP GUIDANCE IN THE
1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. MODELS ALSO INDICATE VERY LITTLE MLCIN.
WHILE THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE INHIBITION THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT
PRECIP TO STAY TIED TO THE FRONT/CONVERGENCE ZONE. EXPECT
MOISTURE ADVECTION TO RAMP UP IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...WITH
PRECIP WATERS APPROACHING 1-1.25 INCHES.

COLD FRONT REACHES THE ERN VA PIEDMONT MID-LATE AFTERNOON. HI-RES
GUIDANCE INDICATING VERY LITTLE CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
CROSSES THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS...BUT ONCE THE FRONT REACHES THE
AIRMASS OVER THE PIEDMONT...MODELS INDICATE INITIATION AROUND
3-5PM THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE PIEDMONT. MODE EXPECTED TO START
OFF AS DISCRETE CELLS...BUT 30-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL
TRANSITION TO A LINE FROM THE PIEDMONT INTO CNTRL VIRGINIA. QUICK
W-SW MID LEVEL FLOW WILL PUSH STORMS QUICKLY TO THE E-NE...WITH
THE BEST CHANCES REMAINING ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS FROM THE
PIEDMONT INTO CNTRL VA. STORMS PROGGED TO REACH CNTRL VA LATE
TODAY-EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THEN POINTS EWD THRU THE EVENING.
WHILE MORE INSTABILITY IS PROGGED ACROSS THE SE...EVENING TIMING
AND DECREASING SHEAR IS NOT FAVORABLE TO MAINTAIN LINE SEGMENTS
INTO THAT AREA. HI-RES GUIDANCE ALSO BACKS THIS UP. HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT NEWD TO THE MD ERN SHORE...WITH
HIGH END CHANCE SOUTH AND EAST. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL
ARE POSSIBLE THANKS TO DEEP INSTABILITY...FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES
AND A RELATIVELY LOW FREEZING LEVEL. TORNADO RISK REMAINS LOW
THANKS TO GOOD MIXING AND HIGH LCL HEIGHTS. THE BEST RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS THE LIKELY POP AREA WITH ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE SE. BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL ALSO EXPECTED...BUT MOVEMENT WILL LIMIT ANY FLOODING
POTENTIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FA TONIGHT WITH CHC POPS...THEN
DRYING/COOLER WESTERLY FLOW TAKING OVR INTO TUE. PARTLY/MOSTLY
SUNNY TUE WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO NR 70 AT THE
COAST...AND LOW/MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

HIGH PRES MOVES TO NR THE SE CONUS COAST BY WED...PROVIDING WSW
FLOW AND CONTINUING MILD WX. A WEAK TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE WNW...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS (ISOLD TSTMS). LOW TEMPS TUE NGT
MID 40S WEST AND NORTH TO LOW 50S SE. HIGH TEMPS WED IN THE
LOW/MID 70S...EXCEPT 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS UPPER
CLOSED LOW REMAINS IN VIC OF THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD...FAST MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATE
WEDS NIGHT-EARLY THURS MORNING. GFS CONTINUES TO REMAIN ON THE
SLOWER SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE WRT FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH THE ECMWF
QUICKER. BASED ON WLY FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BACK OVER THE
MIDWEST...OPTED TO REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDS NIGHT OVER
THE NRN AND NERN ZONES AND THEN THURS SOUTH AND EAST OF
RICHMOND...TRENDING SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE SLOWER GFS. HIGHS THURS
AROUND NORMAL...LOW-MID 60S. THEREAFTER...COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SWD FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE MIDWEST...EXTENDING INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRI. HIGHS FRI GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S NE TO
MID 60S SE UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND NWLY WINDS. SRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO LIFT INTO THE MIDWEST FRI NIGHT-SAT WITH
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW FORECAST TO PROGRESS EWD ALONG A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF STATES SAT. MOISTURE RETURNS SAT TO GO ALONG
WITH OVERRUNNING AND WEAK PERTURBATIONS ALOFT. INCREASED POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE N TO CHANCE S. HIGHS SAT GENERALLY AROUND 60 ACROSS
THE REGION. SFC LOW MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SAT NIGHT...WITH
ANY REMAINING PRECIP EXPECTED ACROSS THE SE LOCAL AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS SUN...BUT COOL CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S NE TO LOW 60S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FRONTAL RAINBAND IS MOVING OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS
ARE IMPROVING AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. CLOUD
COVER ACTUALLY SCATTERING OUT BY THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A
GUSTY SW WIND. A SECONDARY IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING A CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. ANY
TSTMS COULD CONTAIN STRONG WIND GUSTS. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES OFF
THE COAST LATER TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION TUESDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE IS LIFTING NNE OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. 3 TO
5 FT WAVES IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTN. SEAS HAVE RISEN TO 5-8FT...AND WILL LIKELY REACH 6-9FT EARLY
TODAY...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PRESENTLY CROSSING THE AREA AND SHOULD MOVE
OFFSHORE BY 12Z (15Z FARTHER NE). EXPECT THE WIND TO BECOME
SOUTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SPEEDS RELAXING TO 10-15KT.
INHERITED SCA FLAGS REMAIN AS IS. HOWEVER...THE RIVERS COULD
POTENTIALLY END EARLIER THAN THE CURRENT 10 AM TIME. THIS WILL BE
RECONSIDERED AT THE 11Z/7 AM UPDATE. OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE W THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND MOVES ACROSS
THE COAST LATE TONIGHT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER
SHOWERS/TSTMS...WHICH WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING STRONG
WIND GUSTS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AVG QPF 0.75-2.00"...LOCALLY UP TO 2.50" OVR MOST OF THE RIVER
BASINS WILL RESULT IN RIVER LVLS TO PSBLY RISE TO 1/2-NR FULL
BANKFULL TUE INTO WED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WILL HELP MAINTAIN ~1.0 FT
ANOMALIES IN THE MIDDLE BAY THROUGH TONIGHT. TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES OFFSHORE. NO
STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME...BUT BISHOPS HEAD WILL
COME CLOSE TO THEIR 3.25FT MINOR THRESHOLD.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201903
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
303 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A
COLD FRONT LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 89 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
ERN VA PIEDMONT...CNTRL VA AND NRN VA UNTIL 10 PM.

AS OF NOON...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS WARM FRONT JUST NORTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM ~985MB
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES SWD TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
ALOFT...UPPER LOW HAS LOCATED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING SWD ALONG THE MS VALLEY. LATEST REGIONAL RADAR
MOSAIC DEPICTS LAST NIGHTS SHOWERS WELL OFFSHORE WITH DRY
CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. SKIES AVG MOSTLY
CLOUDY.

FOR TODAY...SFC LOW LIFTS NWD INTO SRN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA. SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS IN
INCREASING SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL LIFT TOWARD THE REGION. THE
AIRMASS OVER THE LOCAL AREA WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY WARM/MOIST
AND UNSTABLE...ESPECIALLY WITH A FEW HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THETA E ADVECTION ALONG WITH TEMPS IN THE
LOW-MID 80S AND DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 WILL RESULT IN A MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WITH MLCAPE VALUES PER RAP GUIDANCE IN THE
1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. MODELS ALSO INDICATE VERY LITTLE MLCIN.
WHILE THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE INHIBITION THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT
PRECIP TO STAY TIED TO THE FRONT/CONVERGENCE ZONE. EXPECT
MOISTURE ADVECTION TO RAMP UP IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...WITH
PRECIP WATERS APPROACHING 1-1.25 INCHES.

COLD FRONT REACHES THE ERN VA PIEDMONT MID-LATE AFTERNOON. HI-RES
GUIDANCE INDICATING VERY LITTLE CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
CROSSES THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS...BUT ONCE THE FRONT REACHES THE
AIRMASS OVER THE PIEDMONT...MODELS INDICATE INITIATION AROUND
3-5PM THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE PIEDMONT. MODE EXPECTED TO START
OFF AS DISCRETE CELLS...BUT 30-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL
TRANSITION TO A LINE FROM THE PIEDMONT INTO CNTRL VIRGINIA. QUICK
W-SW MID LEVEL FLOW WILL PUSH STORMS QUICKLY TO THE E-NE...WITH
THE BEST CHANCES REMAINING ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS FROM THE
PIEDMONT INTO CNTRL VA. STORMS PROGGED TO REACH CNTRL VA LATE
TODAY-EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THEN POINTS EWD THRU THE EVENING.
WHILE MORE INSTABILITY IS PROGGED ACROSS THE SE...EVENING TIMING
AND DECREASING SHEAR IS NOT FAVORABLE TO MAINTAIN LINE SEGMENTS
INTO THAT AREA. HI-RES GUIDANCE ALSO BACKS THIS UP. HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT NEWD TO THE MD ERN SHORE...WITH
HIGH END CHANCE SOUTH AND EAST. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL
ARE POSSIBLE THANKS TO DEEP INSTABILITY...FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES
AND A RELATIVELY LOW FREEZING LEVEL. TORNADO RISK REMAINS LOW
THANKS TO GOOD MIXING AND HIGH LCL HEIGHTS. THE BEST RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS THE LIKELY POP AREA WITH ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE SE. BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL ALSO EXPECTED...BUT MOVEMENT WILL LIMIT ANY FLOODING
POTENTIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FA TONIGHT WITH CHC POPS...THEN
DRYING/COOLER WESTERLY FLOW TAKING OVR INTO TUE. PARTLY/MOSTLY
SUNNY TUE WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO NR 70 AT THE
COAST...AND LOW/MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

HIGH PRES MOVES TO NR THE SE CONUS COAST BY WED...PROVIDING WSW
FLOW AND CONTINUING MILD WX. A WEAK TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE WNW...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS (ISOLD TSTMS). LOW TEMPS TUE NGT
MID 40S WEST AND NORTH TO LOW 50S SE. HIGH TEMPS WED IN THE
LOW/MID 70S...EXCEPT 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS UPPER
CLOSED LOW REMAINS IN VIC OF THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD...FAST MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATE
WEDS NIGHT-EARLY THURS MORNING. GFS CONTINUES TO REMAIN ON THE
SLOWER SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE WRT FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH THE ECMWF
QUICKER. BASED ON WLY FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BACK OVER THE
MIDWEST...OPTED TO REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDS NIGHT OVER
THE NRN AND NERN ZONES AND THEN THURS SOUTH AND EAST OF
RICHMOND...TRENDING SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE SLOWER GFS. HIGHS THURS
AROUND NORMAL...LOW-MID 60S. THEREAFTER...COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SWD FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE MIDWEST...EXTENDING INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRI. HIGHS FRI GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S NE TO
MID 60S SE UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND NWLY WINDS. SRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO LIFT INTO THE MIDWEST FRI NIGHT-SAT WITH
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW FORECAST TO PROGRESS EWD ALONG A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF STATES SAT. MOISTURE RETURNS SAT TO GO ALONG
WITH OVERRUNNING AND WEAK PERTURBATIONS ALOFT. INCREASED POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE N TO CHANCE S. HIGHS SAT GENERALLY AROUND 60 ACROSS
THE REGION. SFC LOW MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SAT NIGHT...WITH
ANY REMAINING PRECIP EXPECTED ACROSS THE SE LOCAL AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS SUN...BUT COOL CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S NE TO LOW 60S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FRONTAL RAINBAND IS MOVING OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS
ARE IMPROVING AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. CLOUD
COVER ACTUALLY SCATTERING OUT BY THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A
GUSTY SW WIND. A SECONDARY IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING A CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. ANY
TSTMS COULD CONTAIN STRONG WIND GUSTS. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES OFF
THE COAST LATER TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION TUESDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE IS LIFTING NNE OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. 3 TO
5 FT WAVES IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTN. SEAS HAVE RISEN TO 5-8FT...AND WILL LIKELY REACH 6-9FT EARLY
TODAY...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PRESENTLY CROSSING THE AREA AND SHOULD MOVE
OFFSHORE BY 12Z (15Z FARTHER NE). EXPECT THE WIND TO BECOME
SOUTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SPEEDS RELAXING TO 10-15KT.
INHERITED SCA FLAGS REMAIN AS IS. HOWEVER...THE RIVERS COULD
POTENTIALLY END EARLIER THAN THE CURRENT 10 AM TIME. THIS WILL BE
RECONSIDERED AT THE 11Z/7 AM UPDATE. OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE W THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND MOVES ACROSS
THE COAST LATE TONIGHT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER
SHOWERS/TSTMS...WHICH WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING STRONG
WIND GUSTS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AVG QPF 0.75-2.00"...LOCALLY UP TO 2.50" OVR MOST OF THE RIVER
BASINS WILL RESULT IN RIVER LVLS TO PSBLY RISE TO 1/2-NR FULL
BANKFULL TUE INTO WED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WILL HELP MAINTAIN ~1.0 FT
ANOMALIES IN THE MIDDLE BAY THROUGH TONIGHT. TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES OFFSHORE. NO
STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME...BUT BISHOPS HEAD WILL
COME CLOSE TO THEIR 3.25FT MINOR THRESHOLD.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KRNK 201814
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
214 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT AND BRING SHOWERS AND SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION. WE WILL THEN SETTLE INTO A COOLER...BREEZY...AND SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING WITH
ANOTHER FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1024 AM EDT MONDAY...

ACTIVE WEATHER DAY WITH LINGERING FLOODING ISSUES FROM SUNDAY TO
SUNDAY NIGHT HEAVY RAINS AND A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH COLD FRONT. SWODY1 HAS ADDED AN
ENHANCED POTENTIAL (30 PERCENT) TO SLIGHT RISK WHICH COVERS MUCH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE MAIN THREATS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. MODIFIED MORNING 12Z RNK SOUNDING SUPPORTS CONCERNS WITH
MODIFIED CAPES AROUND 1000 TO 2000 J/KG WITH HEALTHY SHEAR AROUND
40 KNOTS. ADJUSTED TIMING OF POPS CLOSER TO A BLEND OF HRRR AND
WRFRNK-ARW. MODIFIED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WITH SFC OBS AND
MODEL TRENDS. COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST ACROSS REGION THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING...THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND FRONT
TUESDAY. MORE CHANGES THIS AFTERNOON...


AS OF 525 AM EDT MONDAY...

THERE ARE LINGERING HYDRO ISSUES EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWING THE
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN FROM SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND SEVERAL
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE GRAYSON HIGHLANDS AND INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA UNTIL
AROUND 9AM. THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED WITH
ADJUSTMENTS MADE ACCORDINGLY.

THE NEXT CONCERN IS THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MESO MODELS DISSIPATE THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
CURRENTLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITH REDEVELOPMENT FIRING
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY FRONT HE BLUE RIDGE EAST. EARLY MORNING SATELLITE PICS
SHOW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AND WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 12C WE
SHOULD SEE SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE WELL INTO THE 70S TODAY. THIS
WILL GENERATE CAPE VALUES OF 1000J/KG TO 1500J/KG WHICH WILL BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT VIGOROUS CONVECTION. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL GIVE
US 0/6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40KTS TO 50KTS WITH A SOMEWHAT
LINEAR HODOGRAPH. THUS THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
PRESENT FOR A SEVERE THREAT...AND THE SPC SLIGHT RISK LOOKS TO BE
ON TARGET. WILL BE ANTICIPATING STORM CLUSTERS EVOLVING INTO
LINEAR ELEMENTS TO PRODUCE A WIND THREAT...AND THE MORE VIGOROUS
CELLS SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE TO SUPPORT
LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL AS WELL. WHILE SWATS REMAIN HIGH BELIEVE ANY
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LOCALIZED AND FURTHER EAST WHICH SHOULD HELP
AVOID AGGRAVATING THE HYDRO SITUATION. ENOUGH INGREDIENTS FOR A BUSY
AFTERNOON ON RADAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 214 PM EDT MONDAY...

UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SITUATED RIGHT OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
NEXT SFC FRONT WORKING ACROSS BY WEDNESDAY...THOUGH WITH MORE WNW
FLOW ALOFT AND LACK OF SOUTHERLY INFLOW AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. AS SUCH HAVE LIMITED CHANCE POPS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME CHANCE INTO THE NE PIEDMONT OF
VA...WITH LESS COVERAGE INTO THE NC PIEDMONT...AS WE SHOULD SEE SOME
DOWNSLOPE DRYING AND SHEARING OF THE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. JUST
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT TO MENTION THUNDER IN THE
AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. SHOULD BE A BREEZY DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 50S OVER SE WV TO LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH CONTINUED
UPPER TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT AXIS SHIFTING MORE OVER
THE COAST. NW FLOW MAY KEEP SHOWERS GOING INTO THE MOUNTAINS WED
EVENING.  UPPER RIDGING ARRIVES OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITH SFC
HIGH IN THE TN VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT MONDAY...

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THIS FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC BUILDS
SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO FRIDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW
ARRIVES OVER THE AR/OK BORDER BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH OVERRUNNING
CLOUDS WORKING INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. BY
SATURDAY ENOUGH MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO FORM BY SATURDAY
MORNING WITH BEST FORCING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THIS SYSTEM EXITS BY
SAT NIGHT WITH SUNDAY BEING A DRY AND COOL/MILD DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S MOUNTAINS TO 60S EAST. HIGH PRESSURE TO ASSUME POSITION OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS MONDAY TO KEEP THINGS DRY.
NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MAY WORK SOME SHOWERS OUR WAY BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT MONDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT IN
CONVECTION TO MVFR AND IFR AHEAD AND ALONG A COLD FRONT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY WITH THE COLD FRONT
AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION AND EXITS THIS EVENING.

THERE IS SLIGHT TO ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED GUSTS AROUND 50 KNOT MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.

PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING BREEZY AND GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS TO THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. ALSO
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...SOME MVFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. UNCERTAINTY ON HOW LOW CEILINGS
WILL GET ONCE THE SHOWERS CLEAR OUT TONIGHT. ANOTHER ISSUE IS THAT
ANY LOCATION THAT RECEIVED OVER AN INCH OF RAIN MAY SEE FOG
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN
LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS.


EXTENDED AVIATION...

THEN THE NEXT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE
IN THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. OVERRUNNING CLOUDS WORKING INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. BY SATURDAY...ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO FORM BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH BEST FORCING
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...KK/MBS
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/KK



000
FXUS61 KRNK 201814
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
214 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT AND BRING SHOWERS AND SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION. WE WILL THEN SETTLE INTO A COOLER...BREEZY...AND SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING WITH
ANOTHER FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1024 AM EDT MONDAY...

ACTIVE WEATHER DAY WITH LINGERING FLOODING ISSUES FROM SUNDAY TO
SUNDAY NIGHT HEAVY RAINS AND A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH COLD FRONT. SWODY1 HAS ADDED AN
ENHANCED POTENTIAL (30 PERCENT) TO SLIGHT RISK WHICH COVERS MUCH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE MAIN THREATS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. MODIFIED MORNING 12Z RNK SOUNDING SUPPORTS CONCERNS WITH
MODIFIED CAPES AROUND 1000 TO 2000 J/KG WITH HEALTHY SHEAR AROUND
40 KNOTS. ADJUSTED TIMING OF POPS CLOSER TO A BLEND OF HRRR AND
WRFRNK-ARW. MODIFIED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WITH SFC OBS AND
MODEL TRENDS. COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST ACROSS REGION THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING...THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND FRONT
TUESDAY. MORE CHANGES THIS AFTERNOON...


AS OF 525 AM EDT MONDAY...

THERE ARE LINGERING HYDRO ISSUES EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWING THE
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN FROM SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND SEVERAL
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE GRAYSON HIGHLANDS AND INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA UNTIL
AROUND 9AM. THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED WITH
ADJUSTMENTS MADE ACCORDINGLY.

THE NEXT CONCERN IS THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MESO MODELS DISSIPATE THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
CURRENTLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITH REDEVELOPMENT FIRING
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY FRONT HE BLUE RIDGE EAST. EARLY MORNING SATELLITE PICS
SHOW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AND WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 12C WE
SHOULD SEE SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE WELL INTO THE 70S TODAY. THIS
WILL GENERATE CAPE VALUES OF 1000J/KG TO 1500J/KG WHICH WILL BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT VIGOROUS CONVECTION. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL GIVE
US 0/6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40KTS TO 50KTS WITH A SOMEWHAT
LINEAR HODOGRAPH. THUS THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
PRESENT FOR A SEVERE THREAT...AND THE SPC SLIGHT RISK LOOKS TO BE
ON TARGET. WILL BE ANTICIPATING STORM CLUSTERS EVOLVING INTO
LINEAR ELEMENTS TO PRODUCE A WIND THREAT...AND THE MORE VIGOROUS
CELLS SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE TO SUPPORT
LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL AS WELL. WHILE SWATS REMAIN HIGH BELIEVE ANY
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LOCALIZED AND FURTHER EAST WHICH SHOULD HELP
AVOID AGGRAVATING THE HYDRO SITUATION. ENOUGH INGREDIENTS FOR A BUSY
AFTERNOON ON RADAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 214 PM EDT MONDAY...

UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SITUATED RIGHT OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
NEXT SFC FRONT WORKING ACROSS BY WEDNESDAY...THOUGH WITH MORE WNW
FLOW ALOFT AND LACK OF SOUTHERLY INFLOW AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. AS SUCH HAVE LIMITED CHANCE POPS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME CHANCE INTO THE NE PIEDMONT OF
VA...WITH LESS COVERAGE INTO THE NC PIEDMONT...AS WE SHOULD SEE SOME
DOWNSLOPE DRYING AND SHEARING OF THE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. JUST
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT TO MENTION THUNDER IN THE
AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. SHOULD BE A BREEZY DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 50S OVER SE WV TO LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH CONTINUED
UPPER TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT AXIS SHIFTING MORE OVER
THE COAST. NW FLOW MAY KEEP SHOWERS GOING INTO THE MOUNTAINS WED
EVENING.  UPPER RIDGING ARRIVES OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITH SFC
HIGH IN THE TN VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT MONDAY...

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THIS FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC BUILDS
SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO FRIDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW
ARRIVES OVER THE AR/OK BORDER BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH OVERRUNNING
CLOUDS WORKING INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. BY
SATURDAY ENOUGH MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO FORM BY SATURDAY
MORNING WITH BEST FORCING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THIS SYSTEM EXITS BY
SAT NIGHT WITH SUNDAY BEING A DRY AND COOL/MILD DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S MOUNTAINS TO 60S EAST. HIGH PRESSURE TO ASSUME POSITION OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS MONDAY TO KEEP THINGS DRY.
NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MAY WORK SOME SHOWERS OUR WAY BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT MONDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT IN
CONVECTION TO MVFR AND IFR AHEAD AND ALONG A COLD FRONT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY WITH THE COLD FRONT
AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION AND EXITS THIS EVENING.

THERE IS SLIGHT TO ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED GUSTS AROUND 50 KNOT MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.

PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING BREEZY AND GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS TO THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. ALSO
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...SOME MVFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. UNCERTAINTY ON HOW LOW CEILINGS
WILL GET ONCE THE SHOWERS CLEAR OUT TONIGHT. ANOTHER ISSUE IS THAT
ANY LOCATION THAT RECEIVED OVER AN INCH OF RAIN MAY SEE FOG
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN
LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS.


EXTENDED AVIATION...

THEN THE NEXT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE
IN THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. OVERRUNNING CLOUDS WORKING INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. BY SATURDAY...ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO FORM BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH BEST FORCING
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...KK/MBS
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/KK




000
FXUS61 KRNK 201756
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
156 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT AND BRING SHOWERS AND SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION. WE WILL THEN SETTLE INTO A COOLER...BREEZY...AND SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING WITH
ANOTHER FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1024 AM EDT MONDAY...

ACTIVE WEATHER DAY WITH LINGERING FLOODING ISSUES FROM SUNDAY TO
SUNDAY NIGHT HEAVY RAINS AND A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH COLD FRONT. SWODY1 HAS ADDED AN
ENHANCED POTENTIAL (30 PERCENT) TO SLIGHT RISK WHICH COVERS MUCH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE MAIN THREATS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. MODIFIED MORNING 12Z RNK SOUNDING SUPPORTS CONCERNS WITH
MODIFIED CAPES AROUND 1000 TO 2000 J/KG WITH HEALTHY SHEAR AROUND
40 KNOTS. ADJUSTED TIMING OF POPS CLOSER TO A BLEND OF HRRR AND
WRFRNK-ARW. MODIFIED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WITH SFC OBS AND
MODEL TRENDS. COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST ACROSS REGION THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING...THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND FRONT
TUESDAY. MORE CHANGES THIS AFTERNOON...


AS OF 525 AM EDT MONDAY...

THERE ARE LINGERING HYDRO ISSUES EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWING THE
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN FROM SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND SEVERAL
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE GRAYSON HIGHLANDS AND INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA UNTIL
AROUND 9AM. THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED WITH
ADJUSTMENTS MADE ACCORDINGLY.

THE NEXT CONCERN IS THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MESO MODELS DISSIPATE THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
CURRENTLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITH REDEVELOPMENT FIRING
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY FRONT HE BLUE RIDGE EAST. EARLY MORNING SATELLITE PICS
SHOW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AND WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 12C WE
SHOULD SEE SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE WELL INTO THE 70S TODAY. THIS
WILL GENERATE CAPE VALUES OF 1000J/KG TO 1500J/KG WHICH WILL BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT VIGOROUS CONVECTION. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL GIVE
US 0/6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40KTS TO 50KTS WITH A SOMEWHAT
LINEAR HODOGRAPH. THUS THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
PRESENT FOR A SEVERE THREAT...AND THE SPC SLIGHT RISK LOOKS TO BE
ON TARGET. WILL BE ANTICIPATING STORM CLUSTERS EVOLVING INTO
LINEAR ELEMENTS TO PRODUCE A WIND THREAT...AND THE MORE VIGOROUS
CELLS SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE TO SUPPORT
LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL AS WELL. WHILE SWATS REMAIN HIGH BELIEVE ANY
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LOCALIZED AND FURTHER EAST WHICH SHOULD HELP
AVOID AGGRAVATING THE HYDRO SITUATION. ENOUGH INGREDIENTS FOR A BUSY
AFTERNOON ON RADAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 525 AM EDT MONDAY...

BEHIND THE FRONT WE START TO SETTLE INTO A COOLER...BREEZY...AND
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN AS A BROAD CLOSED LOW TAKES UP
RESIDENCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFF TO OUR
EAST EARLY TONIGHT AND TAKE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
IT...LEAVING SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR WEST FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL DISSIPATE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY. COULD SEE THE
OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY OF COOKING UP SOME SHOWERS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BUT BELIEVE THE POPS ARE TOO SMALL TO MENTION SO WILL
KEEP THINGS UNDER 15 PERCENT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL ROTATE THROUGH
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL HAVE SOME SLIGHT INSTABILITY AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES TO WARRANT A MENTION OF THUNDER. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BRING WHAT LOOKS
TO BE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...

BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE AND DOMINATES THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...GRADUALLY SHIFTING FURTHER ESE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
THIS KEEPS THE REGION IN AN UNSTABLE/UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW WITH
NUMEROUS EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES. MODELS VARY CONSIDERABLY AS TO THE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE DISTURBANCES...BUT ENOUGH AGREEMENT
THAT POPS CANNOT BE DROPPED REALLY AT ANY TIME THE OVERALL TREND
IS TO PUSH THE BETTER MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES AND 850MB TEMPS DROP BELOW 0C IN THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES. THE ENTIRE PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH LOW CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WITH THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT THE
DRIEST. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...NO REAL CLEAR CONCERN AT THIS POINT FOR FROST/FREEZE
BECAUSE OF CYCLONIC FLOW AND CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT MONDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT IN
CONVECTION TO MVFR AND IFR AHEAD AND ALONG A COLD FRONT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY WITH THE COLD FRONT
AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION AND EXITS THIS EVENING.

THERE IS SLIGHT TO ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED GUSTS AROUND 50 KNOT MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.

PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING BREEZY AND GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS TO THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. ALSO
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...SOME MVFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. UNCERTAINITY ON HOW LOW CEILINGS
WILL GET ONCE THE SHOWERS CLEAR OUT TONIGHT. ANOTHER ISSUE IS
THAT ANY LOCATION THAT RECIEVED OVER AN INCH OF RAIN MAY SEE
FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
RETURN LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS.


EXTENDED AVIATION...

THEN THE NEXT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE
IN THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...KK/MBS
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS/KK




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201606
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1206 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A
COLD FRONT LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS WARM FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM ~985MB LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES SWD TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. ALOFT...UPPER LOW
HAS LOCATED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SWD
ALONG THE MS VALLEY. LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS LAST
NIGHTS SHOWERS WELL OFFSHORE WITH DRY CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION. SKIES AVG MOSTLY CLOUDY.

FOR TODAY...SFC LOW LIFTS NWD INTO SRN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA. SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS IN
INCREASING SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL LIFT TOWARD THE REGION. THE
AIRMASS OVER THE LOCAL AREA WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY WARM/MOIST
AND UNSTABLE...ESPECIALLY WITH A FEW HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THETA E ADVECTION ALONG WITH TEMPS IN THE
LOW-MID 80S AND DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 WILL RESULT IN A MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WITH MLCAPE VALUES PER RAP GUIDANCE IN THE
1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. MODELS ALSO INDICATE VERY LITTLE MLCIN.
WHILE THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE INHIBITION THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT
PRECIP TO STAY TIED TO THE FRONT/CONVERGENCE ZONE. EXPECT
MOISTURE ADVECTION TO RAMP UP IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...WITH
PRECIP WATERS APPROACHING 1-1.25 INCHES.

COLD FRONT REACHES THE ERN VA PIEDMONT MID-LATE AFTERNOON. HI-RES
GUIDANCE INDICATING VERY LITTLE CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
CROSSES THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS...BUT ONCE THE FRONT REACHES THE
AIRMASS OVER THE PIEDMONT...MODELS INDICATE INITIATION AROUND
3-5PM THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE PIEDMONT. MODE EXPECTED TO START
OFF AS DISCRETE CELLS...BUT 30-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL
TRANSITION TO A LINE FROM THE PIEDMONT INTO CNTRL VIRGINIA. QUICK
W-SW MID LEVEL FLOW WILL PUSH STORMS QUICKLY TO THE E-NE...WITH
THE BEST CHANCES REMAINING ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS FROM THE
PIEDMONT INTO CNTRL VA. STORMS PROGGED TO REACH CNTRL VA LATE
TODAY-EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THEN POINTS EWD THRU THE EVENING.
WHILE MORE INSTABILITY IS PROGGED ACROSS THE SE...EVENING TIMING
AND DECREASING SHEAR IS NOT FAVORABLE TO MAINTAIN LINE SEGMENTS
INTO THAT AREA. HI-RES GUIDANCE ALSO BACKS THIS UP. HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT NEWD TO THE MD ERN SHORE...WITH
HIGH END CHANCE SOUTH AND EAST. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL
ARE POSSIBLE THANKS TO DEEP INSTABILITY...FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES
AND A RELATIVELY LOW FREEZING LEVEL. TORNADO RISK REMAINS LOW
THANKS TO GOOD MIXING AND HIGH LCL HEIGHTS. THE BEST RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS THE LIKELY POP AREA WITH ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE SE. BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL ALSO EXPECTED...BUT MOVEMENT WILL LIMIT ANY FLOODING
POTENTIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FA TONIGHT WITH CHC POPS...THEN
DRYING/COOLER WESTERLY FLOW TAKING OVR INTO TUE. PARTLY/MOSTLY
SUNNY TUE WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO NR 70 AT THE
COAST...AND LOW/MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

HIGH PRES MOVES TO NR THE SE CONUS COAST BY WED...PROVIDING WSW
FLOW AND CONTINUING MILD WX. A WEAK TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE WNW...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS (ISOLD TSTMS). LOW TEMPS TUE NGT
MID 40S WEST AND NORTH TO LOW 50S SE. HIGH TEMPS WED IN THE
LOW/MID 70S...EXCEPT 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS UPPER
CLOSED LOW REMAINS IN VIC OF THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD...FAST MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATE
WEDS NIGHT-EARLY THURS MORNING. GFS CONTINUES TO REMAIN ON THE
SLOWER SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE WRT FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH THE ECMWF
QUICKER. BASED ON WLY FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BACK OVER THE
MIDWEST...OPTED TO REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDS NIGHT OVER
THE NRN AND NERN ZONES AND THEN THURS SOUTH AND EAST OF
RICHMOND...TRENDING SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE SLOWER GFS. HIGHS THURS
AROUND NORMAL...LOW-MID 60S. THEREAFTER...COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SWD FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE MIDWEST...EXTENDING INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRI. HIGHS FRI GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S NE TO
MID 60S SE UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND NWLY WINDS. SRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO LIFT INTO THE MIDWEST FRI NIGHT-SAT WITH
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW FORECAST TO PROGRESS EWD ALONG A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF STATES SAT. MOISTURE RETURNS SAT TO GO ALONG
WITH OVERRUNNING AND WEAK PERTURBATIONS ALOFT. INCREASED POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE N TO CHANCE S. HIGHS SAT GENERALLY AROUND 60 ACROSS
THE REGION. SFC LOW MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SAT NIGHT...WITH
ANY REMAINING PRECIP EXPECTED ACROSS THE SE LOCAL AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS SUN...BUT COOL CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S NE TO LOW 60S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FRONTAL RAINBAND IS MOVING OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS
ARE IMPROVING AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. CLOUD
COVER ACTUALLY SCATTERING OUT BY THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A
GUSTY SW WIND. A SECONDARY IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING A CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. ANY
TSTMS COULD CONTAIN STRONG WIND GUSTS. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES OFF
THE COAST LATER TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION TUESDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE IS LIFTING NNE OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. 3 TO
5 FT WAVES IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTN. SEAS HAVE RISEN TO 5-8FT...AND WILL LIKELY REACH 6-9FT EARLY
TODAY...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PRESENTLY CROSSING THE AREA AND SHOULD MOVE
OFFSHORE BY 12Z (15Z FARTHER NE). EXPECT THE WIND TO BECOME
SOUTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SPEEDS RELAXING TO 10-15KT.
INHERITED SCA FLAGS REMAIN AS IS. HOWEVER...THE RIVERS COULD
POTENTIALLY END EARLIER THAN THE CURRENT 10 AM TIME. THIS WILL BE
RECONSIDERED AT THE 11Z/7 AM UPDATE. OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE W THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND MOVES ACROSS
THE COAST LATE TONIGHT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER
SHOWERS/TSTMS...WHICH WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING STRONG
WIND GUSTS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AVG QPF 0.75-2.00"...LOCALLY UP TO 2.50" OVR MOST OF THE RIVER
BASINS WILL RESULT IN RIVER LVLS TO PSBLY RISE TO 1/2-NR FULL
BANKFULL TUE INTO WED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WILL HELP MAINTAIN ~1.0 FT
ANOMALIES IN THE MIDDLE BAY THROUGH TONIGHT. TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES OFFSHORE. NO
STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME...BUT BISHOPS HEAD WILL
COME CLOSE TO THEIR 3.25FT MINOR THRESHOLD.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/SAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201606
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1206 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A
COLD FRONT LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS WARM FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM ~985MB LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES SWD TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. ALOFT...UPPER LOW
HAS LOCATED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SWD
ALONG THE MS VALLEY. LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS LAST
NIGHTS SHOWERS WELL OFFSHORE WITH DRY CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION. SKIES AVG MOSTLY CLOUDY.

FOR TODAY...SFC LOW LIFTS NWD INTO SRN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA. SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS IN
INCREASING SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL LIFT TOWARD THE REGION. THE
AIRMASS OVER THE LOCAL AREA WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY WARM/MOIST
AND UNSTABLE...ESPECIALLY WITH A FEW HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THETA E ADVECTION ALONG WITH TEMPS IN THE
LOW-MID 80S AND DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 WILL RESULT IN A MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WITH MLCAPE VALUES PER RAP GUIDANCE IN THE
1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. MODELS ALSO INDICATE VERY LITTLE MLCIN.
WHILE THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE INHIBITION THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT
PRECIP TO STAY TIED TO THE FRONT/CONVERGENCE ZONE. EXPECT
MOISTURE ADVECTION TO RAMP UP IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...WITH
PRECIP WATERS APPROACHING 1-1.25 INCHES.

COLD FRONT REACHES THE ERN VA PIEDMONT MID-LATE AFTERNOON. HI-RES
GUIDANCE INDICATING VERY LITTLE CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
CROSSES THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS...BUT ONCE THE FRONT REACHES THE
AIRMASS OVER THE PIEDMONT...MODELS INDICATE INITIATION AROUND
3-5PM THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE PIEDMONT. MODE EXPECTED TO START
OFF AS DISCRETE CELLS...BUT 30-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL
TRANSITION TO A LINE FROM THE PIEDMONT INTO CNTRL VIRGINIA. QUICK
W-SW MID LEVEL FLOW WILL PUSH STORMS QUICKLY TO THE E-NE...WITH
THE BEST CHANCES REMAINING ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS FROM THE
PIEDMONT INTO CNTRL VA. STORMS PROGGED TO REACH CNTRL VA LATE
TODAY-EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THEN POINTS EWD THRU THE EVENING.
WHILE MORE INSTABILITY IS PROGGED ACROSS THE SE...EVENING TIMING
AND DECREASING SHEAR IS NOT FAVORABLE TO MAINTAIN LINE SEGMENTS
INTO THAT AREA. HI-RES GUIDANCE ALSO BACKS THIS UP. HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT NEWD TO THE MD ERN SHORE...WITH
HIGH END CHANCE SOUTH AND EAST. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL
ARE POSSIBLE THANKS TO DEEP INSTABILITY...FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES
AND A RELATIVELY LOW FREEZING LEVEL. TORNADO RISK REMAINS LOW
THANKS TO GOOD MIXING AND HIGH LCL HEIGHTS. THE BEST RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS THE LIKELY POP AREA WITH ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE SE. BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL ALSO EXPECTED...BUT MOVEMENT WILL LIMIT ANY FLOODING
POTENTIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FA TONIGHT WITH CHC POPS...THEN
DRYING/COOLER WESTERLY FLOW TAKING OVR INTO TUE. PARTLY/MOSTLY
SUNNY TUE WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO NR 70 AT THE
COAST...AND LOW/MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

HIGH PRES MOVES TO NR THE SE CONUS COAST BY WED...PROVIDING WSW
FLOW AND CONTINUING MILD WX. A WEAK TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE WNW...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS (ISOLD TSTMS). LOW TEMPS TUE NGT
MID 40S WEST AND NORTH TO LOW 50S SE. HIGH TEMPS WED IN THE
LOW/MID 70S...EXCEPT 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS UPPER
CLOSED LOW REMAINS IN VIC OF THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD...FAST MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATE
WEDS NIGHT-EARLY THURS MORNING. GFS CONTINUES TO REMAIN ON THE
SLOWER SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE WRT FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH THE ECMWF
QUICKER. BASED ON WLY FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BACK OVER THE
MIDWEST...OPTED TO REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDS NIGHT OVER
THE NRN AND NERN ZONES AND THEN THURS SOUTH AND EAST OF
RICHMOND...TRENDING SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE SLOWER GFS. HIGHS THURS
AROUND NORMAL...LOW-MID 60S. THEREAFTER...COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SWD FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE MIDWEST...EXTENDING INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRI. HIGHS FRI GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S NE TO
MID 60S SE UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND NWLY WINDS. SRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO LIFT INTO THE MIDWEST FRI NIGHT-SAT WITH
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW FORECAST TO PROGRESS EWD ALONG A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF STATES SAT. MOISTURE RETURNS SAT TO GO ALONG
WITH OVERRUNNING AND WEAK PERTURBATIONS ALOFT. INCREASED POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE N TO CHANCE S. HIGHS SAT GENERALLY AROUND 60 ACROSS
THE REGION. SFC LOW MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SAT NIGHT...WITH
ANY REMAINING PRECIP EXPECTED ACROSS THE SE LOCAL AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS SUN...BUT COOL CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S NE TO LOW 60S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FRONTAL RAINBAND IS MOVING OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS
ARE IMPROVING AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. CLOUD
COVER ACTUALLY SCATTERING OUT BY THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A
GUSTY SW WIND. A SECONDARY IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING A CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. ANY
TSTMS COULD CONTAIN STRONG WIND GUSTS. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES OFF
THE COAST LATER TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION TUESDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE IS LIFTING NNE OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. 3 TO
5 FT WAVES IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTN. SEAS HAVE RISEN TO 5-8FT...AND WILL LIKELY REACH 6-9FT EARLY
TODAY...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PRESENTLY CROSSING THE AREA AND SHOULD MOVE
OFFSHORE BY 12Z (15Z FARTHER NE). EXPECT THE WIND TO BECOME
SOUTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SPEEDS RELAXING TO 10-15KT.
INHERITED SCA FLAGS REMAIN AS IS. HOWEVER...THE RIVERS COULD
POTENTIALLY END EARLIER THAN THE CURRENT 10 AM TIME. THIS WILL BE
RECONSIDERED AT THE 11Z/7 AM UPDATE. OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE W THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND MOVES ACROSS
THE COAST LATE TONIGHT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER
SHOWERS/TSTMS...WHICH WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING STRONG
WIND GUSTS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AVG QPF 0.75-2.00"...LOCALLY UP TO 2.50" OVR MOST OF THE RIVER
BASINS WILL RESULT IN RIVER LVLS TO PSBLY RISE TO 1/2-NR FULL
BANKFULL TUE INTO WED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WILL HELP MAINTAIN ~1.0 FT
ANOMALIES IN THE MIDDLE BAY THROUGH TONIGHT. TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES OFFSHORE. NO
STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME...BUT BISHOPS HEAD WILL
COME CLOSE TO THEIR 3.25FT MINOR THRESHOLD.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/SAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201436
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1036 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LOCATED NORTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NORTH OF RICHMOND THIS MORNING AND SHOULD
CLEAR OUR NORTHERN FA IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. LAST BIT OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS MOVING OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING. MOST
LOCATIONS ENDED UP BETWEEN 0.50-2.00" OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION THROUGH AT LEAST THE MID-
AFTERNOON HOURS. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND GOOD MIXING (BREEZY THIS
AFTN) WILL BOOST MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOW/MID 70S AT THE COAST...AND
UPR 70S TO LOW/MID 80S ELSEWHERE. CONCERN THEN SHIFTS TO A TROUGH
ALOFT/COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY LATE THIS AFTN/EVE.
WARM TEMPS AND AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHWRS AND TSTMS. SPC CONTINUES TO HAVE
OUR FA OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN/EVE FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX IS CERTAINLY THERE GIVEN ML CAPE VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE...STEEP LAPSE
RATES...AND A MODEST SHEAR PROFILE. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
POSSIBLE STRONG/ISOLD SVR STORMS IN THE HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FA TONIGHT WITH CHC POPS...THEN
DRYING/COOLER WESTERLY FLOW TAKING OVR INTO TUE. PARTLY/MOSTLY
SUNNY TUE WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO NR 70 AT THE
COAST...AND LOW/MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

HIGH PRES MOVES TO NR THE SE CONUS COAST BY WED...PROVIDING WSW
FLOW AND CONTINUING MILD WX. A WEAK TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE WNW...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS (ISOLD TSTMS). LOW TEMPS TUE NGT
MID 40S WEST AND NORTH TO LOW 50S SE. HIGH TEMPS WED IN THE
LOW/MID 70S...EXCEPT 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS UPPER
CLOSED LOW REMAINS IN VIC OF THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD...FAST MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATE
WEDS NIGHT-EARLY THURS MORNING. GFS CONTINUES TO REMAIN ON THE
SLOWER SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE WRT FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH THE ECMWF
QUICKER. BASED ON WLY FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BACK OVER THE
MIDWEST...OPTED TO REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDS NIGHT OVER
THE NRN AND NERN ZONES AND THEN THURS SOUTH AND EAST OF
RICHMOND...TRENDING SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE SLOWER GFS. HIGHS THURS
AROUND NORMAL...LOW-MID 60S. THEREAFTER...COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SWD FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE MIDWEST...EXTENDING INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRI. HIGHS FRI GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S NE TO
MID 60S SE UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND NWLY WINDS. SRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO LIFT INTO THE MIDWEST FRI NIGHT-SAT WITH
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW FORECAST TO PROGRESS EWD ALONG A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF STATES SAT. MOISTURE RETURNS SAT TO GO ALONG
WITH OVERRUNNING AND WEAK PERTURBATIONS ALOFT. INCREASED POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE N TO CHANCE S. HIGHS SAT GENERALLY AROUND 60 ACROSS
THE REGION. SFC LOW MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SAT NIGHT...WITH
ANY REMAINING PRECIP EXPECTED ACROSS THE SE LOCAL AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS SUN...BUT COOL CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S NE TO LOW 60S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FRONTAL RAINBAND IS MOVING OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS
ARE IMPROVING AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. CLOUD
COVER ACTUALLY SCATTERING OUT BY THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A
GUSTY SW WIND. A SECONDARY IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING A CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. ANY
TSTMS COULD CONTAIN STRONG WIND GUSTS. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES OFF
THE COAST LATER TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION TUESDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE IS LIFTING NNE OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. 3 TO
5 FT WAVES IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTN. SEAS HAVE RISEN TO 5-8FT...AND WILL LIKELY REACH 6-9FT EARLY
TODAY...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PRESENTLY CROSSING THE AREA AND SHOULD MOVE
OFFSHORE BY 12Z (15Z FARTHER NE). EXPECT THE WIND TO BECOME
SOUTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SPEEDS RELAXING TO 10-15KT.
INHERITED SCA FLAGS REMAIN AS IS. HOWEVER...THE RIVERS COULD
POTENTIALLY END EARLIER THAN THE CURRENT 10 AM TIME. THIS WILL BE
RECONSIDERED AT THE 11Z/7 AM UPDATE. OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE W THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND MOVES ACROSS
THE COAST LATE TONIGHT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER
SHOWERS/TSTMS...WHICH WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING STRONG
WIND GUSTS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AVG QPF 0.75-2.00"...LOCALLY UP TO 2.50" OVR MOST OF THE RIVER
BASINS WILL RESULT IN RIVER LVLS TO PSBLY RISE TO 1/2-NR FULL
BANKFULL TUE INTO WED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WILL HELP MAINTAIN ~1.0 FT
ANOMALIES IN THE MIDDLE BAY THROUGH TONIGHT. TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES OFFSHORE. NO
STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME...BUT BISHOPS HEAD WILL
COME CLOSE TO THEIR 3.25FT MINOR THRESHOLD.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201436
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1036 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LOCATED NORTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NORTH OF RICHMOND THIS MORNING AND SHOULD
CLEAR OUR NORTHERN FA IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. LAST BIT OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS MOVING OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING. MOST
LOCATIONS ENDED UP BETWEEN 0.50-2.00" OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION THROUGH AT LEAST THE MID-
AFTERNOON HOURS. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND GOOD MIXING (BREEZY THIS
AFTN) WILL BOOST MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOW/MID 70S AT THE COAST...AND
UPR 70S TO LOW/MID 80S ELSEWHERE. CONCERN THEN SHIFTS TO A TROUGH
ALOFT/COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY LATE THIS AFTN/EVE.
WARM TEMPS AND AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHWRS AND TSTMS. SPC CONTINUES TO HAVE
OUR FA OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN/EVE FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX IS CERTAINLY THERE GIVEN ML CAPE VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE...STEEP LAPSE
RATES...AND A MODEST SHEAR PROFILE. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
POSSIBLE STRONG/ISOLD SVR STORMS IN THE HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FA TONIGHT WITH CHC POPS...THEN
DRYING/COOLER WESTERLY FLOW TAKING OVR INTO TUE. PARTLY/MOSTLY
SUNNY TUE WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO NR 70 AT THE
COAST...AND LOW/MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

HIGH PRES MOVES TO NR THE SE CONUS COAST BY WED...PROVIDING WSW
FLOW AND CONTINUING MILD WX. A WEAK TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE WNW...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS (ISOLD TSTMS). LOW TEMPS TUE NGT
MID 40S WEST AND NORTH TO LOW 50S SE. HIGH TEMPS WED IN THE
LOW/MID 70S...EXCEPT 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS UPPER
CLOSED LOW REMAINS IN VIC OF THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD...FAST MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATE
WEDS NIGHT-EARLY THURS MORNING. GFS CONTINUES TO REMAIN ON THE
SLOWER SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE WRT FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH THE ECMWF
QUICKER. BASED ON WLY FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BACK OVER THE
MIDWEST...OPTED TO REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDS NIGHT OVER
THE NRN AND NERN ZONES AND THEN THURS SOUTH AND EAST OF
RICHMOND...TRENDING SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE SLOWER GFS. HIGHS THURS
AROUND NORMAL...LOW-MID 60S. THEREAFTER...COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SWD FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE MIDWEST...EXTENDING INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRI. HIGHS FRI GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S NE TO
MID 60S SE UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND NWLY WINDS. SRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO LIFT INTO THE MIDWEST FRI NIGHT-SAT WITH
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW FORECAST TO PROGRESS EWD ALONG A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF STATES SAT. MOISTURE RETURNS SAT TO GO ALONG
WITH OVERRUNNING AND WEAK PERTURBATIONS ALOFT. INCREASED POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE N TO CHANCE S. HIGHS SAT GENERALLY AROUND 60 ACROSS
THE REGION. SFC LOW MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SAT NIGHT...WITH
ANY REMAINING PRECIP EXPECTED ACROSS THE SE LOCAL AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS SUN...BUT COOL CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S NE TO LOW 60S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FRONTAL RAINBAND IS MOVING OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS
ARE IMPROVING AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. CLOUD
COVER ACTUALLY SCATTERING OUT BY THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A
GUSTY SW WIND. A SECONDARY IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING A CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. ANY
TSTMS COULD CONTAIN STRONG WIND GUSTS. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES OFF
THE COAST LATER TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION TUESDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE IS LIFTING NNE OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. 3 TO
5 FT WAVES IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTN. SEAS HAVE RISEN TO 5-8FT...AND WILL LIKELY REACH 6-9FT EARLY
TODAY...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PRESENTLY CROSSING THE AREA AND SHOULD MOVE
OFFSHORE BY 12Z (15Z FARTHER NE). EXPECT THE WIND TO BECOME
SOUTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SPEEDS RELAXING TO 10-15KT.
INHERITED SCA FLAGS REMAIN AS IS. HOWEVER...THE RIVERS COULD
POTENTIALLY END EARLIER THAN THE CURRENT 10 AM TIME. THIS WILL BE
RECONSIDERED AT THE 11Z/7 AM UPDATE. OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE W THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND MOVES ACROSS
THE COAST LATE TONIGHT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER
SHOWERS/TSTMS...WHICH WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING STRONG
WIND GUSTS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AVG QPF 0.75-2.00"...LOCALLY UP TO 2.50" OVR MOST OF THE RIVER
BASINS WILL RESULT IN RIVER LVLS TO PSBLY RISE TO 1/2-NR FULL
BANKFULL TUE INTO WED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WILL HELP MAINTAIN ~1.0 FT
ANOMALIES IN THE MIDDLE BAY THROUGH TONIGHT. TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES OFFSHORE. NO
STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME...BUT BISHOPS HEAD WILL
COME CLOSE TO THEIR 3.25FT MINOR THRESHOLD.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201436
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1036 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LOCATED NORTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NORTH OF RICHMOND THIS MORNING AND SHOULD
CLEAR OUR NORTHERN FA IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. LAST BIT OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS MOVING OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING. MOST
LOCATIONS ENDED UP BETWEEN 0.50-2.00" OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION THROUGH AT LEAST THE MID-
AFTERNOON HOURS. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND GOOD MIXING (BREEZY THIS
AFTN) WILL BOOST MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOW/MID 70S AT THE COAST...AND
UPR 70S TO LOW/MID 80S ELSEWHERE. CONCERN THEN SHIFTS TO A TROUGH
ALOFT/COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY LATE THIS AFTN/EVE.
WARM TEMPS AND AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHWRS AND TSTMS. SPC CONTINUES TO HAVE
OUR FA OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN/EVE FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX IS CERTAINLY THERE GIVEN ML CAPE VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE...STEEP LAPSE
RATES...AND A MODEST SHEAR PROFILE. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
POSSIBLE STRONG/ISOLD SVR STORMS IN THE HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FA TONIGHT WITH CHC POPS...THEN
DRYING/COOLER WESTERLY FLOW TAKING OVR INTO TUE. PARTLY/MOSTLY
SUNNY TUE WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO NR 70 AT THE
COAST...AND LOW/MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

HIGH PRES MOVES TO NR THE SE CONUS COAST BY WED...PROVIDING WSW
FLOW AND CONTINUING MILD WX. A WEAK TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE WNW...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS (ISOLD TSTMS). LOW TEMPS TUE NGT
MID 40S WEST AND NORTH TO LOW 50S SE. HIGH TEMPS WED IN THE
LOW/MID 70S...EXCEPT 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS UPPER
CLOSED LOW REMAINS IN VIC OF THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD...FAST MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATE
WEDS NIGHT-EARLY THURS MORNING. GFS CONTINUES TO REMAIN ON THE
SLOWER SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE WRT FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH THE ECMWF
QUICKER. BASED ON WLY FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BACK OVER THE
MIDWEST...OPTED TO REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDS NIGHT OVER
THE NRN AND NERN ZONES AND THEN THURS SOUTH AND EAST OF
RICHMOND...TRENDING SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE SLOWER GFS. HIGHS THURS
AROUND NORMAL...LOW-MID 60S. THEREAFTER...COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SWD FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE MIDWEST...EXTENDING INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRI. HIGHS FRI GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S NE TO
MID 60S SE UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND NWLY WINDS. SRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO LIFT INTO THE MIDWEST FRI NIGHT-SAT WITH
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW FORECAST TO PROGRESS EWD ALONG A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF STATES SAT. MOISTURE RETURNS SAT TO GO ALONG
WITH OVERRUNNING AND WEAK PERTURBATIONS ALOFT. INCREASED POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE N TO CHANCE S. HIGHS SAT GENERALLY AROUND 60 ACROSS
THE REGION. SFC LOW MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SAT NIGHT...WITH
ANY REMAINING PRECIP EXPECTED ACROSS THE SE LOCAL AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS SUN...BUT COOL CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S NE TO LOW 60S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FRONTAL RAINBAND IS MOVING OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS
ARE IMPROVING AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. CLOUD
COVER ACTUALLY SCATTERING OUT BY THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A
GUSTY SW WIND. A SECONDARY IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING A CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. ANY
TSTMS COULD CONTAIN STRONG WIND GUSTS. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES OFF
THE COAST LATER TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION TUESDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE IS LIFTING NNE OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. 3 TO
5 FT WAVES IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTN. SEAS HAVE RISEN TO 5-8FT...AND WILL LIKELY REACH 6-9FT EARLY
TODAY...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PRESENTLY CROSSING THE AREA AND SHOULD MOVE
OFFSHORE BY 12Z (15Z FARTHER NE). EXPECT THE WIND TO BECOME
SOUTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SPEEDS RELAXING TO 10-15KT.
INHERITED SCA FLAGS REMAIN AS IS. HOWEVER...THE RIVERS COULD
POTENTIALLY END EARLIER THAN THE CURRENT 10 AM TIME. THIS WILL BE
RECONSIDERED AT THE 11Z/7 AM UPDATE. OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE W THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND MOVES ACROSS
THE COAST LATE TONIGHT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER
SHOWERS/TSTMS...WHICH WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING STRONG
WIND GUSTS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AVG QPF 0.75-2.00"...LOCALLY UP TO 2.50" OVR MOST OF THE RIVER
BASINS WILL RESULT IN RIVER LVLS TO PSBLY RISE TO 1/2-NR FULL
BANKFULL TUE INTO WED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WILL HELP MAINTAIN ~1.0 FT
ANOMALIES IN THE MIDDLE BAY THROUGH TONIGHT. TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES OFFSHORE. NO
STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME...BUT BISHOPS HEAD WILL
COME CLOSE TO THEIR 3.25FT MINOR THRESHOLD.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201436
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1036 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LOCATED NORTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NORTH OF RICHMOND THIS MORNING AND SHOULD
CLEAR OUR NORTHERN FA IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. LAST BIT OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS MOVING OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING. MOST
LOCATIONS ENDED UP BETWEEN 0.50-2.00" OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION THROUGH AT LEAST THE MID-
AFTERNOON HOURS. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND GOOD MIXING (BREEZY THIS
AFTN) WILL BOOST MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOW/MID 70S AT THE COAST...AND
UPR 70S TO LOW/MID 80S ELSEWHERE. CONCERN THEN SHIFTS TO A TROUGH
ALOFT/COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY LATE THIS AFTN/EVE.
WARM TEMPS AND AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHWRS AND TSTMS. SPC CONTINUES TO HAVE
OUR FA OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN/EVE FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX IS CERTAINLY THERE GIVEN ML CAPE VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE...STEEP LAPSE
RATES...AND A MODEST SHEAR PROFILE. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
POSSIBLE STRONG/ISOLD SVR STORMS IN THE HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FA TONIGHT WITH CHC POPS...THEN
DRYING/COOLER WESTERLY FLOW TAKING OVR INTO TUE. PARTLY/MOSTLY
SUNNY TUE WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO NR 70 AT THE
COAST...AND LOW/MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

HIGH PRES MOVES TO NR THE SE CONUS COAST BY WED...PROVIDING WSW
FLOW AND CONTINUING MILD WX. A WEAK TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE WNW...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS (ISOLD TSTMS). LOW TEMPS TUE NGT
MID 40S WEST AND NORTH TO LOW 50S SE. HIGH TEMPS WED IN THE
LOW/MID 70S...EXCEPT 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS UPPER
CLOSED LOW REMAINS IN VIC OF THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD...FAST MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATE
WEDS NIGHT-EARLY THURS MORNING. GFS CONTINUES TO REMAIN ON THE
SLOWER SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE WRT FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH THE ECMWF
QUICKER. BASED ON WLY FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BACK OVER THE
MIDWEST...OPTED TO REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDS NIGHT OVER
THE NRN AND NERN ZONES AND THEN THURS SOUTH AND EAST OF
RICHMOND...TRENDING SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE SLOWER GFS. HIGHS THURS
AROUND NORMAL...LOW-MID 60S. THEREAFTER...COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SWD FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE MIDWEST...EXTENDING INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRI. HIGHS FRI GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S NE TO
MID 60S SE UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND NWLY WINDS. SRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO LIFT INTO THE MIDWEST FRI NIGHT-SAT WITH
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW FORECAST TO PROGRESS EWD ALONG A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF STATES SAT. MOISTURE RETURNS SAT TO GO ALONG
WITH OVERRUNNING AND WEAK PERTURBATIONS ALOFT. INCREASED POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE N TO CHANCE S. HIGHS SAT GENERALLY AROUND 60 ACROSS
THE REGION. SFC LOW MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SAT NIGHT...WITH
ANY REMAINING PRECIP EXPECTED ACROSS THE SE LOCAL AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS SUN...BUT COOL CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S NE TO LOW 60S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FRONTAL RAINBAND IS MOVING OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS
ARE IMPROVING AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. CLOUD
COVER ACTUALLY SCATTERING OUT BY THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A
GUSTY SW WIND. A SECONDARY IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING A CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. ANY
TSTMS COULD CONTAIN STRONG WIND GUSTS. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES OFF
THE COAST LATER TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION TUESDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE IS LIFTING NNE OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. 3 TO
5 FT WAVES IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTN. SEAS HAVE RISEN TO 5-8FT...AND WILL LIKELY REACH 6-9FT EARLY
TODAY...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PRESENTLY CROSSING THE AREA AND SHOULD MOVE
OFFSHORE BY 12Z (15Z FARTHER NE). EXPECT THE WIND TO BECOME
SOUTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SPEEDS RELAXING TO 10-15KT.
INHERITED SCA FLAGS REMAIN AS IS. HOWEVER...THE RIVERS COULD
POTENTIALLY END EARLIER THAN THE CURRENT 10 AM TIME. THIS WILL BE
RECONSIDERED AT THE 11Z/7 AM UPDATE. OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE W THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND MOVES ACROSS
THE COAST LATE TONIGHT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER
SHOWERS/TSTMS...WHICH WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING STRONG
WIND GUSTS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AVG QPF 0.75-2.00"...LOCALLY UP TO 2.50" OVR MOST OF THE RIVER
BASINS WILL RESULT IN RIVER LVLS TO PSBLY RISE TO 1/2-NR FULL
BANKFULL TUE INTO WED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WILL HELP MAINTAIN ~1.0 FT
ANOMALIES IN THE MIDDLE BAY THROUGH TONIGHT. TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES OFFSHORE. NO
STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME...BUT BISHOPS HEAD WILL
COME CLOSE TO THEIR 3.25FT MINOR THRESHOLD.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KRNK 201425
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1025 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND BRING SHOWERS
AND SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. WE WILL THEN SETTLE
INTO A COOLER...BREEZY...AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING WITH ANOTHER FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1024 AM EDT MONDAY...

ACTIVE WEATHER DAY WITH LINGERING FLOODING ISSUES FROM SUNDAY TO
SUNDAY NIGHT HEAVY RAINS AND A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH COLD FRONT. SWODY1 HAS ADDED AN
ENHANCED POTENTIAL (30 PERCENT) TO SLIGHT RISK WHICH COVERS MUCH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE MAIN THREATS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. MODIFIED MORNING 12Z RNK SOUNDING SUPPORTS CONCERNS WITH
MODIFIED CAPES AROUND 1000 TO 2000 J/KG WITH HEALTHY SHEAR AROUND
40 KNOTS. ADJUSTED TIMING OF POPS CLOSER TO A BLEND OF HRRR AND
WRFRNK-ARW. MODIFIED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WITH SFC OBS AND
MODEL TRENDS. COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST ACROSS REGION THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING...THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND FRONT
TUESDAY. MORE CHANGES THIS AFTERNOON...


AS OF 525 AM EDT MONDAY...

THERE ARE LINGERING HYDRO ISSUES EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWING THE
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN FROM SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND SEVERAL
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE GRAYSON HIGHLANDS AND INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA UNTIL
AROUND 9AM. THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED WITH
ADJUSTMENTS MADE ACCORDINGLY.

THE NEXT CONCERN IS THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MESO MODELS DISSIPATE THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
CURRENTLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITH REDEVELOPMENT FIRING
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY FRONT HE BLUE RIDGE EAST. EARLY MORNING SATELLITE PICS
SHOW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AND WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 12C WE
SHOULD SEE SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE WELL INTO THE 70S TODAY. THIS
WILL GENERATE CAPE VALUES OF 1000J/KG TO 1500J/KG WHICH WILL BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT VIGOROUS CONVECTION. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL GIVE
US 0/6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40KTS TO 50KTS WITH A SOMEWHAT
LINEAR HODOGRAPH. THUS THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
PRESENT FOR A SEVERE THREAT...AND THE SPC SLIGHT RISK LOOKS TO BE
ON TARGET. WILL BE ANTICIPATING STORM CLUSTERS EVOLVING INTO
LINEAR ELEMENTS TO PRODUCE A WIND THREAT...AND THE MORE VIGOROUS
CELLS SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE TO SUPPORT
LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL AS WELL. WHILE SWATS REMAIN HIGH BELIEVE ANY
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LOCALIZED AND FURTHER EAST WHICH SHOULD HELP
AVOID AGGRAVATING THE HYDRO SITUATION. ENOUGH INGREDIENTS FOR A BUSY
AFTERNOON ON RADAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 525 AM EDT MONDAY...

BEHIND THE FRONT WE START TO SETTLE INTO A COOLER...BREEZY...AND
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN AS A BROAD CLOSED LOW TAKES UP
RESIDENCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFF TO OUR
EAST EARLY TONIGHT AND TAKE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
IT...LEAVING SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR WEST FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL DISSIPATE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY. COULD SEE THE
OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY OF COOKING UP SOME SHOWERS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BUT BELIEVE THE POPS ARE TOO SMALL TO MENTION SO WILL
KEEP THINGS UNDER 15 PERCENT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL ROTATE THROUGH
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL HAVE SOME SLIGHT INSTABILITY AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES TO WARRANT A MENTION OF THUNDER. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BRING WHAT LOOKS
TO BE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...

BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE AND DOMINATES THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...GRADUALLY SHIFTING FURTHER ESE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
THIS KEEPS THE REGION IN AN UNSTABLE/UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW WITH
NUMEROUS EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES. MODELS VARY CONSIDERABLY AS TO THE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE DISTURBANCES...BUT ENOUGH AGREEMENT
THAT POPS CANNOT BE DROPPED REALLY AT ANY TIME THE OVERALL TREND
IS TO PUSH THE BETTER MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES AND 850MB TEMPS DROP BELOW 0C IN THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES. THE ENTIRE PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH LOW CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WITH THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT THE
DRIEST. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...NO REAL CLEAR CONCERN AT THIS POINT FOR FROST/FREEZE
BECAUSE OF CYCLONIC FLOW AND CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 750 AM EDT MONDAY...

CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL
MOVE EAST INTO VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA THIS MORNING.
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS THIS PRECIPITATION WILL REACH KBLF
BEFORE 16Z.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL BRING BREEZY AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO THE AREA INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...SO WIND GUSTS WITH ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AT KLYH AND KDAN MAY APPROACH 50 KNOTS. DO NOT
EXPECT TO HAVE ANYTHING THAT INTENSE THAT FAR EAST UNTIL AFTER
18Z.

IN THE EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT...MODELS WERE INDICATING SOME MVFR
CEILINGS IN THE MOUNTAINS. ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE HOW LOW
CEILINGS WILL GET ONCE THE SHOWERS CLEAR OUT AFTER SUNSET.

EXTENDED AVIATION...

VFR RETURNS LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS.

THEN THE NEXT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE
IN THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...KK/MBS
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS/RCS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 201425
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1025 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES WILL
LIFT NORTH THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
REGION LATE MONDAY. AN UPPER LOW WILL THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CWFA IN THE LULL BTWN THE MRNG AND AFTN ROUND OF STORMS.HV HAD A
SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF CLRG BHD THE WMFNT...WHICH WL ALLOW FOR AMPLE
DESTABLILIZATION. THE 12Z ROAB FROM LWX DIDNT NEED MUCH OF A KICK.
THERE WAS PLENTY OF INSTBY AVBL ABV MRNG INVSN...WHICH IS FCST TO
BE ERODED. IN ADDITION...EXPECTING MID LVL HGT FALLS...WHICH WL
AIDE IN THE LIFT. AM FURTHER CONCERNED BY A H3 SPD MAX SLIDING UP
THE COAST JUST BEFORE FROPA.

THE MODIFIED RAOB COMES UP WITH SIMLR CAPE/SHEAR VALUES AS
PROJECTED BELOW. WBZ ON THE LOW SIDE...AND H8-5 LAPSE RATES 6.5+
C/KM. FORSEE BOTH A WIND AND HAIL THREAT...AS EVIDENCED BY THE ENH
THREAT AREA FROM SPC. LTST RUNS OF ALL GDNC CONVEY A SIMLR
SCENARIO...W/ TSRA INITIATING IN THE MTNS NEAR 18Z...AND MAKING IT
TO THE BAY AOA 00Z.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...
AIDED BY TERRAIN...DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE STORMS
WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
COVERAGE IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...BUT SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE. CONSISTENT INDICATIONS OF AROUND 1000 J/KG INSTBY AND
30 KT BULK SHEAR WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS.
THERE MAY BE SOME DISCRETE CELLS INITIALLY...EVENTUALLY MORPHING
INTO LINE SEGMENTS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DMGG WINDS...ALTHOUGH
STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL OF LARGE HAIL
TOO. WHILE HODOGRAPHS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...THERE IS SOME LLVL
VEERING AND A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF A TORNADO FROM ANY STRONG
DISCRETE CELLS. AT THIS TIME...NO AREA OF THE CWA IS PARTICULARLY
FAVORED...ALTHOUGH PARAMETERS MAY BE SLIGHTLY BETTER EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS.

STORMS WILL EXIT EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT
TRAILING THE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH WILL CROSS OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS MAY
LINGER LONGER IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS. TEMPS DROP INTO THE 40S
WEST...BUT SLOWER ADVECTION LIMITS LOWS TO THE 50S IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY WITH
WESTERLY FLOW LOCALLY. IT WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BUT
BREEZY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WILL HELP TEMPS RISE INTO THE 60S...WITH
NEAR 70 IN THE EAST.

AN ELONGATED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TUESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE RIDGES. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S.
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ADDITIONAL UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO AID IN
PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO COULD DEVELOP IN ANY ONE PORTION OF
THE REGION. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S WHILE
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP DOWN TO THE MIDDLE 40S...WITH
EXCEPTION TO THE UPPER 30S IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
EVOLVE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 7 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. THERE
COULD BE A FEW LINGERING RAIN OR PERHAPS A SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE
HIGHER RIDGES OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT DUE TO A SLIGHT UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY...MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION ONCE AGAIN. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO PASS ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF OUR CWA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

A FEW RAIN SHOWERS COULD STILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY BUT FOR THE MOST
PART HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO TAKE CONTROL BRIEFLY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT COULD SWING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

SOME TAFS AT VFR ATTM...BUT STILL HV MVFR/IFR AT A CPL SITES. WL
BE SEEING IMPRVG CONDS ELSW. VFR LIKELY DURING MIDDAY HOURS.
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND COULD CONTAIN
STRONG WIND GUSTS/HAIL. COVERAGE/ORGANIZATION NOT EXPECTED TO BE
DEFINED ENOUGH TO PLACE SPECIFICS IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
SHIFT TO S THIS MORNING WITH WARM FRONT...THEN W WITH COLD FRONT
TONIGHT. GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND TUE AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT. MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM. VFR
CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

WINDS SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS TUESDAY NIGHT BECOMING WEST TO
NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS WEDNESDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THEN WEST TO NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WL SHIFT SOUTH WITH WARM FRONT FOR TODAY...REMAINING AT SCA
LEVELS. STORMS POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH STRONG WINDS
AND HAIL. COLD FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT WITH WIND SHIFT TO WEST.
PERHAPS A WEAKENING OF WINDS NEAR DAWN TUESDAY...BUT THEN INCREASE
AGAIN TO SCA LEVELS DURING THE DAY.

NO MARINE HAZARDS TUESDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY WITH WIND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES. NO MARINE HAZARDS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ELEVATED WATER LVLS ATTM...BUT ANOMALIES HV DECREASED SINCE
EARLIER THIS MORNING. WL BE DROPPING CSTL FLOOD WARNING FOR
DC...AND OTHER ADVYS WILL END WITH THE PASSING TIDE CYCLE.

NEED TO MONITOR FOR ONE MORE CYCLE. ANOMALIES WILL BE HIGH...AND
SHUD BE SUSTAINED UNTIL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS THIS
EVENING.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO CHARLOTTESVILLE TRANSMITTER IS EXPECTED TO
HAVE INTERMITTENT OUTAGES DUE TO SCHEDULED MAINTENANCE BETWEEN 9
AM AND 1 PM EDT TODAY. IN ADDITION...AUDIO QUALITY MAY BE
DEGREGADED DURING TIMES WHEN THE TRANSMITTER IS OPERATIONAL BEFORE
THE MAINTENANCE IS COMPLETED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MDZ011-014.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR VAZ054.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ535-536.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ535-
     536.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ535.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADS
NEAR TERM...ADS/HTS
SHORT TERM...ADS/KLW
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...ADS/KLW
MARINE...ADS/KLW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS
EQUIPMENT...



000
FXUS61 KLWX 201425
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1025 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES WILL
LIFT NORTH THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
REGION LATE MONDAY. AN UPPER LOW WILL THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CWFA IN THE LULL BTWN THE MRNG AND AFTN ROUND OF STORMS.HV HAD A
SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF CLRG BHD THE WMFNT...WHICH WL ALLOW FOR AMPLE
DESTABLILIZATION. THE 12Z ROAB FROM LWX DIDNT NEED MUCH OF A KICK.
THERE WAS PLENTY OF INSTBY AVBL ABV MRNG INVSN...WHICH IS FCST TO
BE ERODED. IN ADDITION...EXPECTING MID LVL HGT FALLS...WHICH WL
AIDE IN THE LIFT. AM FURTHER CONCERNED BY A H3 SPD MAX SLIDING UP
THE COAST JUST BEFORE FROPA.

THE MODIFIED RAOB COMES UP WITH SIMLR CAPE/SHEAR VALUES AS
PROJECTED BELOW. WBZ ON THE LOW SIDE...AND H8-5 LAPSE RATES 6.5+
C/KM. FORSEE BOTH A WIND AND HAIL THREAT...AS EVIDENCED BY THE ENH
THREAT AREA FROM SPC. LTST RUNS OF ALL GDNC CONVEY A SIMLR
SCENARIO...W/ TSRA INITIATING IN THE MTNS NEAR 18Z...AND MAKING IT
TO THE BAY AOA 00Z.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...
AIDED BY TERRAIN...DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE STORMS
WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
COVERAGE IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...BUT SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE. CONSISTENT INDICATIONS OF AROUND 1000 J/KG INSTBY AND
30 KT BULK SHEAR WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS.
THERE MAY BE SOME DISCRETE CELLS INITIALLY...EVENTUALLY MORPHING
INTO LINE SEGMENTS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DMGG WINDS...ALTHOUGH
STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL OF LARGE HAIL
TOO. WHILE HODOGRAPHS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...THERE IS SOME LLVL
VEERING AND A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF A TORNADO FROM ANY STRONG
DISCRETE CELLS. AT THIS TIME...NO AREA OF THE CWA IS PARTICULARLY
FAVORED...ALTHOUGH PARAMETERS MAY BE SLIGHTLY BETTER EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS.

STORMS WILL EXIT EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT
TRAILING THE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH WILL CROSS OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS MAY
LINGER LONGER IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS. TEMPS DROP INTO THE 40S
WEST...BUT SLOWER ADVECTION LIMITS LOWS TO THE 50S IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY WITH
WESTERLY FLOW LOCALLY. IT WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BUT
BREEZY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WILL HELP TEMPS RISE INTO THE 60S...WITH
NEAR 70 IN THE EAST.

AN ELONGATED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TUESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE RIDGES. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S.
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ADDITIONAL UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO AID IN
PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO COULD DEVELOP IN ANY ONE PORTION OF
THE REGION. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S WHILE
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP DOWN TO THE MIDDLE 40S...WITH
EXCEPTION TO THE UPPER 30S IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
EVOLVE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 7 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. THERE
COULD BE A FEW LINGERING RAIN OR PERHAPS A SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE
HIGHER RIDGES OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT DUE TO A SLIGHT UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY...MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION ONCE AGAIN. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO PASS ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF OUR CWA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

A FEW RAIN SHOWERS COULD STILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY BUT FOR THE MOST
PART HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO TAKE CONTROL BRIEFLY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT COULD SWING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

SOME TAFS AT VFR ATTM...BUT STILL HV MVFR/IFR AT A CPL SITES. WL
BE SEEING IMPRVG CONDS ELSW. VFR LIKELY DURING MIDDAY HOURS.
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND COULD CONTAIN
STRONG WIND GUSTS/HAIL. COVERAGE/ORGANIZATION NOT EXPECTED TO BE
DEFINED ENOUGH TO PLACE SPECIFICS IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
SHIFT TO S THIS MORNING WITH WARM FRONT...THEN W WITH COLD FRONT
TONIGHT. GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND TUE AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT. MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM. VFR
CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

WINDS SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS TUESDAY NIGHT BECOMING WEST TO
NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS WEDNESDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THEN WEST TO NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WL SHIFT SOUTH WITH WARM FRONT FOR TODAY...REMAINING AT SCA
LEVELS. STORMS POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH STRONG WINDS
AND HAIL. COLD FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT WITH WIND SHIFT TO WEST.
PERHAPS A WEAKENING OF WINDS NEAR DAWN TUESDAY...BUT THEN INCREASE
AGAIN TO SCA LEVELS DURING THE DAY.

NO MARINE HAZARDS TUESDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY WITH WIND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES. NO MARINE HAZARDS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ELEVATED WATER LVLS ATTM...BUT ANOMALIES HV DECREASED SINCE
EARLIER THIS MORNING. WL BE DROPPING CSTL FLOOD WARNING FOR
DC...AND OTHER ADVYS WILL END WITH THE PASSING TIDE CYCLE.

NEED TO MONITOR FOR ONE MORE CYCLE. ANOMALIES WILL BE HIGH...AND
SHUD BE SUSTAINED UNTIL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS THIS
EVENING.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO CHARLOTTESVILLE TRANSMITTER IS EXPECTED TO
HAVE INTERMITTENT OUTAGES DUE TO SCHEDULED MAINTENANCE BETWEEN 9
AM AND 1 PM EDT TODAY. IN ADDITION...AUDIO QUALITY MAY BE
DEGREGADED DURING TIMES WHEN THE TRANSMITTER IS OPERATIONAL BEFORE
THE MAINTENANCE IS COMPLETED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MDZ011-014.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR VAZ054.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ535-536.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ535-
     536.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ535.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADS
NEAR TERM...ADS/HTS
SHORT TERM...ADS/KLW
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...ADS/KLW
MARINE...ADS/KLW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS
EQUIPMENT...



000
FXUS61 KRNK 201425
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1025 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND BRING SHOWERS
AND SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. WE WILL THEN SETTLE
INTO A COOLER...BREEZY...AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING WITH ANOTHER FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1024 AM EDT MONDAY...

ACTIVE WEATHER DAY WITH LINGERING FLOODING ISSUES FROM SUNDAY TO
SUNDAY NIGHT HEAVY RAINS AND A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH COLD FRONT. SWODY1 HAS ADDED AN
ENHANCED POTENTIAL (30 PERCENT) TO SLIGHT RISK WHICH COVERS MUCH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE MAIN THREATS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. MODIFIED MORNING 12Z RNK SOUNDING SUPPORTS CONCERNS WITH
MODIFIED CAPES AROUND 1000 TO 2000 J/KG WITH HEALTHY SHEAR AROUND
40 KNOTS. ADJUSTED TIMING OF POPS CLOSER TO A BLEND OF HRRR AND
WRFRNK-ARW. MODIFIED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WITH SFC OBS AND
MODEL TRENDS. COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST ACROSS REGION THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING...THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND FRONT
TUESDAY. MORE CHANGES THIS AFTERNOON...


AS OF 525 AM EDT MONDAY...

THERE ARE LINGERING HYDRO ISSUES EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWING THE
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN FROM SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND SEVERAL
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE GRAYSON HIGHLANDS AND INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA UNTIL
AROUND 9AM. THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED WITH
ADJUSTMENTS MADE ACCORDINGLY.

THE NEXT CONCERN IS THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MESO MODELS DISSIPATE THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
CURRENTLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITH REDEVELOPMENT FIRING
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY FRONT HE BLUE RIDGE EAST. EARLY MORNING SATELLITE PICS
SHOW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AND WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 12C WE
SHOULD SEE SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE WELL INTO THE 70S TODAY. THIS
WILL GENERATE CAPE VALUES OF 1000J/KG TO 1500J/KG WHICH WILL BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT VIGOROUS CONVECTION. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL GIVE
US 0/6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40KTS TO 50KTS WITH A SOMEWHAT
LINEAR HODOGRAPH. THUS THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
PRESENT FOR A SEVERE THREAT...AND THE SPC SLIGHT RISK LOOKS TO BE
ON TARGET. WILL BE ANTICIPATING STORM CLUSTERS EVOLVING INTO
LINEAR ELEMENTS TO PRODUCE A WIND THREAT...AND THE MORE VIGOROUS
CELLS SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE TO SUPPORT
LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL AS WELL. WHILE SWATS REMAIN HIGH BELIEVE ANY
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LOCALIZED AND FURTHER EAST WHICH SHOULD HELP
AVOID AGGRAVATING THE HYDRO SITUATION. ENOUGH INGREDIENTS FOR A BUSY
AFTERNOON ON RADAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 525 AM EDT MONDAY...

BEHIND THE FRONT WE START TO SETTLE INTO A COOLER...BREEZY...AND
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN AS A BROAD CLOSED LOW TAKES UP
RESIDENCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFF TO OUR
EAST EARLY TONIGHT AND TAKE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
IT...LEAVING SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR WEST FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL DISSIPATE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY. COULD SEE THE
OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY OF COOKING UP SOME SHOWERS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BUT BELIEVE THE POPS ARE TOO SMALL TO MENTION SO WILL
KEEP THINGS UNDER 15 PERCENT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL ROTATE THROUGH
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL HAVE SOME SLIGHT INSTABILITY AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES TO WARRANT A MENTION OF THUNDER. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BRING WHAT LOOKS
TO BE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...

BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE AND DOMINATES THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...GRADUALLY SHIFTING FURTHER ESE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
THIS KEEPS THE REGION IN AN UNSTABLE/UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW WITH
NUMEROUS EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES. MODELS VARY CONSIDERABLY AS TO THE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE DISTURBANCES...BUT ENOUGH AGREEMENT
THAT POPS CANNOT BE DROPPED REALLY AT ANY TIME THE OVERALL TREND
IS TO PUSH THE BETTER MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES AND 850MB TEMPS DROP BELOW 0C IN THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES. THE ENTIRE PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH LOW CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WITH THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT THE
DRIEST. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...NO REAL CLEAR CONCERN AT THIS POINT FOR FROST/FREEZE
BECAUSE OF CYCLONIC FLOW AND CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 750 AM EDT MONDAY...

CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL
MOVE EAST INTO VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA THIS MORNING.
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS THIS PRECIPITATION WILL REACH KBLF
BEFORE 16Z.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL BRING BREEZY AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO THE AREA INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...SO WIND GUSTS WITH ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AT KLYH AND KDAN MAY APPROACH 50 KNOTS. DO NOT
EXPECT TO HAVE ANYTHING THAT INTENSE THAT FAR EAST UNTIL AFTER
18Z.

IN THE EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT...MODELS WERE INDICATING SOME MVFR
CEILINGS IN THE MOUNTAINS. ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE HOW LOW
CEILINGS WILL GET ONCE THE SHOWERS CLEAR OUT AFTER SUNSET.

EXTENDED AVIATION...

VFR RETURNS LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS.

THEN THE NEXT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE
IN THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...KK/MBS
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS/RCS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 201425
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1025 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES WILL
LIFT NORTH THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
REGION LATE MONDAY. AN UPPER LOW WILL THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CWFA IN THE LULL BTWN THE MRNG AND AFTN ROUND OF STORMS.HV HAD A
SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF CLRG BHD THE WMFNT...WHICH WL ALLOW FOR AMPLE
DESTABLILIZATION. THE 12Z ROAB FROM LWX DIDNT NEED MUCH OF A KICK.
THERE WAS PLENTY OF INSTBY AVBL ABV MRNG INVSN...WHICH IS FCST TO
BE ERODED. IN ADDITION...EXPECTING MID LVL HGT FALLS...WHICH WL
AIDE IN THE LIFT. AM FURTHER CONCERNED BY A H3 SPD MAX SLIDING UP
THE COAST JUST BEFORE FROPA.

THE MODIFIED RAOB COMES UP WITH SIMLR CAPE/SHEAR VALUES AS
PROJECTED BELOW. WBZ ON THE LOW SIDE...AND H8-5 LAPSE RATES 6.5+
C/KM. FORSEE BOTH A WIND AND HAIL THREAT...AS EVIDENCED BY THE ENH
THREAT AREA FROM SPC. LTST RUNS OF ALL GDNC CONVEY A SIMLR
SCENARIO...W/ TSRA INITIATING IN THE MTNS NEAR 18Z...AND MAKING IT
TO THE BAY AOA 00Z.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...
AIDED BY TERRAIN...DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE STORMS
WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
COVERAGE IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...BUT SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE. CONSISTENT INDICATIONS OF AROUND 1000 J/KG INSTBY AND
30 KT BULK SHEAR WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS.
THERE MAY BE SOME DISCRETE CELLS INITIALLY...EVENTUALLY MORPHING
INTO LINE SEGMENTS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DMGG WINDS...ALTHOUGH
STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL OF LARGE HAIL
TOO. WHILE HODOGRAPHS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...THERE IS SOME LLVL
VEERING AND A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF A TORNADO FROM ANY STRONG
DISCRETE CELLS. AT THIS TIME...NO AREA OF THE CWA IS PARTICULARLY
FAVORED...ALTHOUGH PARAMETERS MAY BE SLIGHTLY BETTER EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS.

STORMS WILL EXIT EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT
TRAILING THE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH WILL CROSS OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS MAY
LINGER LONGER IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS. TEMPS DROP INTO THE 40S
WEST...BUT SLOWER ADVECTION LIMITS LOWS TO THE 50S IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY WITH
WESTERLY FLOW LOCALLY. IT WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BUT
BREEZY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WILL HELP TEMPS RISE INTO THE 60S...WITH
NEAR 70 IN THE EAST.

AN ELONGATED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TUESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE RIDGES. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S.
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ADDITIONAL UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO AID IN
PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO COULD DEVELOP IN ANY ONE PORTION OF
THE REGION. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S WHILE
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP DOWN TO THE MIDDLE 40S...WITH
EXCEPTION TO THE UPPER 30S IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
EVOLVE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 7 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. THERE
COULD BE A FEW LINGERING RAIN OR PERHAPS A SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE
HIGHER RIDGES OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT DUE TO A SLIGHT UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY...MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION ONCE AGAIN. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO PASS ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF OUR CWA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

A FEW RAIN SHOWERS COULD STILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY BUT FOR THE MOST
PART HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO TAKE CONTROL BRIEFLY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT COULD SWING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

SOME TAFS AT VFR ATTM...BUT STILL HV MVFR/IFR AT A CPL SITES. WL
BE SEEING IMPRVG CONDS ELSW. VFR LIKELY DURING MIDDAY HOURS.
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND COULD CONTAIN
STRONG WIND GUSTS/HAIL. COVERAGE/ORGANIZATION NOT EXPECTED TO BE
DEFINED ENOUGH TO PLACE SPECIFICS IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
SHIFT TO S THIS MORNING WITH WARM FRONT...THEN W WITH COLD FRONT
TONIGHT. GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND TUE AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT. MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM. VFR
CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

WINDS SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS TUESDAY NIGHT BECOMING WEST TO
NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS WEDNESDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THEN WEST TO NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WL SHIFT SOUTH WITH WARM FRONT FOR TODAY...REMAINING AT SCA
LEVELS. STORMS POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH STRONG WINDS
AND HAIL. COLD FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT WITH WIND SHIFT TO WEST.
PERHAPS A WEAKENING OF WINDS NEAR DAWN TUESDAY...BUT THEN INCREASE
AGAIN TO SCA LEVELS DURING THE DAY.

NO MARINE HAZARDS TUESDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY WITH WIND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES. NO MARINE HAZARDS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ELEVATED WATER LVLS ATTM...BUT ANOMALIES HV DECREASED SINCE
EARLIER THIS MORNING. WL BE DROPPING CSTL FLOOD WARNING FOR
DC...AND OTHER ADVYS WILL END WITH THE PASSING TIDE CYCLE.

NEED TO MONITOR FOR ONE MORE CYCLE. ANOMALIES WILL BE HIGH...AND
SHUD BE SUSTAINED UNTIL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS THIS
EVENING.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO CHARLOTTESVILLE TRANSMITTER IS EXPECTED TO
HAVE INTERMITTENT OUTAGES DUE TO SCHEDULED MAINTENANCE BETWEEN 9
AM AND 1 PM EDT TODAY. IN ADDITION...AUDIO QUALITY MAY BE
DEGREGADED DURING TIMES WHEN THE TRANSMITTER IS OPERATIONAL BEFORE
THE MAINTENANCE IS COMPLETED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MDZ011-014.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR VAZ054.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ535-536.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ535-
     536.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ535.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADS
NEAR TERM...ADS/HTS
SHORT TERM...ADS/KLW
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...ADS/KLW
MARINE...ADS/KLW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS
EQUIPMENT...



000
FXUS61 KLWX 201425
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1025 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES WILL
LIFT NORTH THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
REGION LATE MONDAY. AN UPPER LOW WILL THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CWFA IN THE LULL BTWN THE MRNG AND AFTN ROUND OF STORMS.HV HAD A
SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF CLRG BHD THE WMFNT...WHICH WL ALLOW FOR AMPLE
DESTABLILIZATION. THE 12Z ROAB FROM LWX DIDNT NEED MUCH OF A KICK.
THERE WAS PLENTY OF INSTBY AVBL ABV MRNG INVSN...WHICH IS FCST TO
BE ERODED. IN ADDITION...EXPECTING MID LVL HGT FALLS...WHICH WL
AIDE IN THE LIFT. AM FURTHER CONCERNED BY A H3 SPD MAX SLIDING UP
THE COAST JUST BEFORE FROPA.

THE MODIFIED RAOB COMES UP WITH SIMLR CAPE/SHEAR VALUES AS
PROJECTED BELOW. WBZ ON THE LOW SIDE...AND H8-5 LAPSE RATES 6.5+
C/KM. FORSEE BOTH A WIND AND HAIL THREAT...AS EVIDENCED BY THE ENH
THREAT AREA FROM SPC. LTST RUNS OF ALL GDNC CONVEY A SIMLR
SCENARIO...W/ TSRA INITIATING IN THE MTNS NEAR 18Z...AND MAKING IT
TO THE BAY AOA 00Z.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...
AIDED BY TERRAIN...DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE STORMS
WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
COVERAGE IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...BUT SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE. CONSISTENT INDICATIONS OF AROUND 1000 J/KG INSTBY AND
30 KT BULK SHEAR WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS.
THERE MAY BE SOME DISCRETE CELLS INITIALLY...EVENTUALLY MORPHING
INTO LINE SEGMENTS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DMGG WINDS...ALTHOUGH
STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL OF LARGE HAIL
TOO. WHILE HODOGRAPHS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...THERE IS SOME LLVL
VEERING AND A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF A TORNADO FROM ANY STRONG
DISCRETE CELLS. AT THIS TIME...NO AREA OF THE CWA IS PARTICULARLY
FAVORED...ALTHOUGH PARAMETERS MAY BE SLIGHTLY BETTER EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS.

STORMS WILL EXIT EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT
TRAILING THE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH WILL CROSS OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS MAY
LINGER LONGER IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS. TEMPS DROP INTO THE 40S
WEST...BUT SLOWER ADVECTION LIMITS LOWS TO THE 50S IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY WITH
WESTERLY FLOW LOCALLY. IT WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BUT
BREEZY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WILL HELP TEMPS RISE INTO THE 60S...WITH
NEAR 70 IN THE EAST.

AN ELONGATED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TUESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE RIDGES. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S.
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ADDITIONAL UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO AID IN
PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO COULD DEVELOP IN ANY ONE PORTION OF
THE REGION. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S WHILE
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP DOWN TO THE MIDDLE 40S...WITH
EXCEPTION TO THE UPPER 30S IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
EVOLVE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 7 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. THERE
COULD BE A FEW LINGERING RAIN OR PERHAPS A SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE
HIGHER RIDGES OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT DUE TO A SLIGHT UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY...MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION ONCE AGAIN. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO PASS ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF OUR CWA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

A FEW RAIN SHOWERS COULD STILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY BUT FOR THE MOST
PART HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO TAKE CONTROL BRIEFLY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT COULD SWING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

SOME TAFS AT VFR ATTM...BUT STILL HV MVFR/IFR AT A CPL SITES. WL
BE SEEING IMPRVG CONDS ELSW. VFR LIKELY DURING MIDDAY HOURS.
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND COULD CONTAIN
STRONG WIND GUSTS/HAIL. COVERAGE/ORGANIZATION NOT EXPECTED TO BE
DEFINED ENOUGH TO PLACE SPECIFICS IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
SHIFT TO S THIS MORNING WITH WARM FRONT...THEN W WITH COLD FRONT
TONIGHT. GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND TUE AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT. MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM. VFR
CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

WINDS SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS TUESDAY NIGHT BECOMING WEST TO
NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS WEDNESDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THEN WEST TO NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WL SHIFT SOUTH WITH WARM FRONT FOR TODAY...REMAINING AT SCA
LEVELS. STORMS POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH STRONG WINDS
AND HAIL. COLD FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT WITH WIND SHIFT TO WEST.
PERHAPS A WEAKENING OF WINDS NEAR DAWN TUESDAY...BUT THEN INCREASE
AGAIN TO SCA LEVELS DURING THE DAY.

NO MARINE HAZARDS TUESDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY WITH WIND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES. NO MARINE HAZARDS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ELEVATED WATER LVLS ATTM...BUT ANOMALIES HV DECREASED SINCE
EARLIER THIS MORNING. WL BE DROPPING CSTL FLOOD WARNING FOR
DC...AND OTHER ADVYS WILL END WITH THE PASSING TIDE CYCLE.

NEED TO MONITOR FOR ONE MORE CYCLE. ANOMALIES WILL BE HIGH...AND
SHUD BE SUSTAINED UNTIL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS THIS
EVENING.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO CHARLOTTESVILLE TRANSMITTER IS EXPECTED TO
HAVE INTERMITTENT OUTAGES DUE TO SCHEDULED MAINTENANCE BETWEEN 9
AM AND 1 PM EDT TODAY. IN ADDITION...AUDIO QUALITY MAY BE
DEGREGADED DURING TIMES WHEN THE TRANSMITTER IS OPERATIONAL BEFORE
THE MAINTENANCE IS COMPLETED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MDZ011-014.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR VAZ054.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ535-536.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ535-
     536.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ535.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADS
NEAR TERM...ADS/HTS
SHORT TERM...ADS/KLW
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...ADS/KLW
MARINE...ADS/KLW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS
EQUIPMENT...



000
FXUS61 KRNK 201425
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1025 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND BRING SHOWERS
AND SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. WE WILL THEN SETTLE
INTO A COOLER...BREEZY...AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING WITH ANOTHER FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1024 AM EDT MONDAY...

ACTIVE WEATHER DAY WITH LINGERING FLOODING ISSUES FROM SUNDAY TO
SUNDAY NIGHT HEAVY RAINS AND A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH COLD FRONT. SWODY1 HAS ADDED AN
ENHANCED POTENTIAL (30 PERCENT) TO SLIGHT RISK WHICH COVERS MUCH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE MAIN THREATS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. MODIFIED MORNING 12Z RNK SOUNDING SUPPORTS CONCERNS WITH
MODIFIED CAPES AROUND 1000 TO 2000 J/KG WITH HEALTHY SHEAR AROUND
40 KNOTS. ADJUSTED TIMING OF POPS CLOSER TO A BLEND OF HRRR AND
WRFRNK-ARW. MODIFIED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WITH SFC OBS AND
MODEL TRENDS. COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST ACROSS REGION THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING...THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND FRONT
TUESDAY. MORE CHANGES THIS AFTERNOON...


AS OF 525 AM EDT MONDAY...

THERE ARE LINGERING HYDRO ISSUES EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWING THE
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN FROM SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND SEVERAL
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE GRAYSON HIGHLANDS AND INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA UNTIL
AROUND 9AM. THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED WITH
ADJUSTMENTS MADE ACCORDINGLY.

THE NEXT CONCERN IS THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MESO MODELS DISSIPATE THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
CURRENTLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITH REDEVELOPMENT FIRING
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY FRONT HE BLUE RIDGE EAST. EARLY MORNING SATELLITE PICS
SHOW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AND WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 12C WE
SHOULD SEE SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE WELL INTO THE 70S TODAY. THIS
WILL GENERATE CAPE VALUES OF 1000J/KG TO 1500J/KG WHICH WILL BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT VIGOROUS CONVECTION. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL GIVE
US 0/6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40KTS TO 50KTS WITH A SOMEWHAT
LINEAR HODOGRAPH. THUS THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
PRESENT FOR A SEVERE THREAT...AND THE SPC SLIGHT RISK LOOKS TO BE
ON TARGET. WILL BE ANTICIPATING STORM CLUSTERS EVOLVING INTO
LINEAR ELEMENTS TO PRODUCE A WIND THREAT...AND THE MORE VIGOROUS
CELLS SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE TO SUPPORT
LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL AS WELL. WHILE SWATS REMAIN HIGH BELIEVE ANY
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LOCALIZED AND FURTHER EAST WHICH SHOULD HELP
AVOID AGGRAVATING THE HYDRO SITUATION. ENOUGH INGREDIENTS FOR A BUSY
AFTERNOON ON RADAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 525 AM EDT MONDAY...

BEHIND THE FRONT WE START TO SETTLE INTO A COOLER...BREEZY...AND
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN AS A BROAD CLOSED LOW TAKES UP
RESIDENCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFF TO OUR
EAST EARLY TONIGHT AND TAKE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
IT...LEAVING SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR WEST FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL DISSIPATE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY. COULD SEE THE
OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY OF COOKING UP SOME SHOWERS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BUT BELIEVE THE POPS ARE TOO SMALL TO MENTION SO WILL
KEEP THINGS UNDER 15 PERCENT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL ROTATE THROUGH
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL HAVE SOME SLIGHT INSTABILITY AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES TO WARRANT A MENTION OF THUNDER. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BRING WHAT LOOKS
TO BE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...

BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE AND DOMINATES THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...GRADUALLY SHIFTING FURTHER ESE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
THIS KEEPS THE REGION IN AN UNSTABLE/UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW WITH
NUMEROUS EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES. MODELS VARY CONSIDERABLY AS TO THE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE DISTURBANCES...BUT ENOUGH AGREEMENT
THAT POPS CANNOT BE DROPPED REALLY AT ANY TIME THE OVERALL TREND
IS TO PUSH THE BETTER MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES AND 850MB TEMPS DROP BELOW 0C IN THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES. THE ENTIRE PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH LOW CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WITH THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT THE
DRIEST. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...NO REAL CLEAR CONCERN AT THIS POINT FOR FROST/FREEZE
BECAUSE OF CYCLONIC FLOW AND CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 750 AM EDT MONDAY...

CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL
MOVE EAST INTO VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA THIS MORNING.
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS THIS PRECIPITATION WILL REACH KBLF
BEFORE 16Z.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL BRING BREEZY AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO THE AREA INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...SO WIND GUSTS WITH ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AT KLYH AND KDAN MAY APPROACH 50 KNOTS. DO NOT
EXPECT TO HAVE ANYTHING THAT INTENSE THAT FAR EAST UNTIL AFTER
18Z.

IN THE EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT...MODELS WERE INDICATING SOME MVFR
CEILINGS IN THE MOUNTAINS. ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE HOW LOW
CEILINGS WILL GET ONCE THE SHOWERS CLEAR OUT AFTER SUNSET.

EXTENDED AVIATION...

VFR RETURNS LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS.

THEN THE NEXT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE
IN THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...KK/MBS
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS/RCS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 201425
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1025 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES WILL
LIFT NORTH THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
REGION LATE MONDAY. AN UPPER LOW WILL THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CWFA IN THE LULL BTWN THE MRNG AND AFTN ROUND OF STORMS.HV HAD A
SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF CLRG BHD THE WMFNT...WHICH WL ALLOW FOR AMPLE
DESTABLILIZATION. THE 12Z ROAB FROM LWX DIDNT NEED MUCH OF A KICK.
THERE WAS PLENTY OF INSTBY AVBL ABV MRNG INVSN...WHICH IS FCST TO
BE ERODED. IN ADDITION...EXPECTING MID LVL HGT FALLS...WHICH WL
AIDE IN THE LIFT. AM FURTHER CONCERNED BY A H3 SPD MAX SLIDING UP
THE COAST JUST BEFORE FROPA.

THE MODIFIED RAOB COMES UP WITH SIMLR CAPE/SHEAR VALUES AS
PROJECTED BELOW. WBZ ON THE LOW SIDE...AND H8-5 LAPSE RATES 6.5+
C/KM. FORSEE BOTH A WIND AND HAIL THREAT...AS EVIDENCED BY THE ENH
THREAT AREA FROM SPC. LTST RUNS OF ALL GDNC CONVEY A SIMLR
SCENARIO...W/ TSRA INITIATING IN THE MTNS NEAR 18Z...AND MAKING IT
TO THE BAY AOA 00Z.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...
AIDED BY TERRAIN...DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE STORMS
WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
COVERAGE IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...BUT SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE. CONSISTENT INDICATIONS OF AROUND 1000 J/KG INSTBY AND
30 KT BULK SHEAR WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS.
THERE MAY BE SOME DISCRETE CELLS INITIALLY...EVENTUALLY MORPHING
INTO LINE SEGMENTS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DMGG WINDS...ALTHOUGH
STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL OF LARGE HAIL
TOO. WHILE HODOGRAPHS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...THERE IS SOME LLVL
VEERING AND A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF A TORNADO FROM ANY STRONG
DISCRETE CELLS. AT THIS TIME...NO AREA OF THE CWA IS PARTICULARLY
FAVORED...ALTHOUGH PARAMETERS MAY BE SLIGHTLY BETTER EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS.

STORMS WILL EXIT EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT
TRAILING THE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH WILL CROSS OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS MAY
LINGER LONGER IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS. TEMPS DROP INTO THE 40S
WEST...BUT SLOWER ADVECTION LIMITS LOWS TO THE 50S IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY WITH
WESTERLY FLOW LOCALLY. IT WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BUT
BREEZY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WILL HELP TEMPS RISE INTO THE 60S...WITH
NEAR 70 IN THE EAST.

AN ELONGATED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TUESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE RIDGES. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S.
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ADDITIONAL UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO AID IN
PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO COULD DEVELOP IN ANY ONE PORTION OF
THE REGION. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S WHILE
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP DOWN TO THE MIDDLE 40S...WITH
EXCEPTION TO THE UPPER 30S IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
EVOLVE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 7 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. THERE
COULD BE A FEW LINGERING RAIN OR PERHAPS A SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE
HIGHER RIDGES OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT DUE TO A SLIGHT UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY...MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION ONCE AGAIN. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO PASS ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF OUR CWA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

A FEW RAIN SHOWERS COULD STILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY BUT FOR THE MOST
PART HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO TAKE CONTROL BRIEFLY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT COULD SWING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

SOME TAFS AT VFR ATTM...BUT STILL HV MVFR/IFR AT A CPL SITES. WL
BE SEEING IMPRVG CONDS ELSW. VFR LIKELY DURING MIDDAY HOURS.
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND COULD CONTAIN
STRONG WIND GUSTS/HAIL. COVERAGE/ORGANIZATION NOT EXPECTED TO BE
DEFINED ENOUGH TO PLACE SPECIFICS IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
SHIFT TO S THIS MORNING WITH WARM FRONT...THEN W WITH COLD FRONT
TONIGHT. GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND TUE AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT. MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM. VFR
CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

WINDS SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS TUESDAY NIGHT BECOMING WEST TO
NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS WEDNESDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THEN WEST TO NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WL SHIFT SOUTH WITH WARM FRONT FOR TODAY...REMAINING AT SCA
LEVELS. STORMS POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH STRONG WINDS
AND HAIL. COLD FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT WITH WIND SHIFT TO WEST.
PERHAPS A WEAKENING OF WINDS NEAR DAWN TUESDAY...BUT THEN INCREASE
AGAIN TO SCA LEVELS DURING THE DAY.

NO MARINE HAZARDS TUESDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY WITH WIND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES. NO MARINE HAZARDS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ELEVATED WATER LVLS ATTM...BUT ANOMALIES HV DECREASED SINCE
EARLIER THIS MORNING. WL BE DROPPING CSTL FLOOD WARNING FOR
DC...AND OTHER ADVYS WILL END WITH THE PASSING TIDE CYCLE.

NEED TO MONITOR FOR ONE MORE CYCLE. ANOMALIES WILL BE HIGH...AND
SHUD BE SUSTAINED UNTIL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS THIS
EVENING.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO CHARLOTTESVILLE TRANSMITTER IS EXPECTED TO
HAVE INTERMITTENT OUTAGES DUE TO SCHEDULED MAINTENANCE BETWEEN 9
AM AND 1 PM EDT TODAY. IN ADDITION...AUDIO QUALITY MAY BE
DEGREGADED DURING TIMES WHEN THE TRANSMITTER IS OPERATIONAL BEFORE
THE MAINTENANCE IS COMPLETED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MDZ011-014.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR VAZ054.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ535-536.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ535-
     536.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ535.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADS
NEAR TERM...ADS/HTS
SHORT TERM...ADS/KLW
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...ADS/KLW
MARINE...ADS/KLW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS
EQUIPMENT...



000
FXUS61 KLWX 201425
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1025 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES WILL
LIFT NORTH THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
REGION LATE MONDAY. AN UPPER LOW WILL THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CWFA IN THE LULL BTWN THE MRNG AND AFTN ROUND OF STORMS.HV HAD A
SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF CLRG BHD THE WMFNT...WHICH WL ALLOW FOR AMPLE
DESTABLILIZATION. THE 12Z ROAB FROM LWX DIDNT NEED MUCH OF A KICK.
THERE WAS PLENTY OF INSTBY AVBL ABV MRNG INVSN...WHICH IS FCST TO
BE ERODED. IN ADDITION...EXPECTING MID LVL HGT FALLS...WHICH WL
AIDE IN THE LIFT. AM FURTHER CONCERNED BY A H3 SPD MAX SLIDING UP
THE COAST JUST BEFORE FROPA.

THE MODIFIED RAOB COMES UP WITH SIMLR CAPE/SHEAR VALUES AS
PROJECTED BELOW. WBZ ON THE LOW SIDE...AND H8-5 LAPSE RATES 6.5+
C/KM. FORSEE BOTH A WIND AND HAIL THREAT...AS EVIDENCED BY THE ENH
THREAT AREA FROM SPC. LTST RUNS OF ALL GDNC CONVEY A SIMLR
SCENARIO...W/ TSRA INITIATING IN THE MTNS NEAR 18Z...AND MAKING IT
TO THE BAY AOA 00Z.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...
AIDED BY TERRAIN...DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE STORMS
WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
COVERAGE IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...BUT SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE. CONSISTENT INDICATIONS OF AROUND 1000 J/KG INSTBY AND
30 KT BULK SHEAR WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS.
THERE MAY BE SOME DISCRETE CELLS INITIALLY...EVENTUALLY MORPHING
INTO LINE SEGMENTS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DMGG WINDS...ALTHOUGH
STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL OF LARGE HAIL
TOO. WHILE HODOGRAPHS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...THERE IS SOME LLVL
VEERING AND A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF A TORNADO FROM ANY STRONG
DISCRETE CELLS. AT THIS TIME...NO AREA OF THE CWA IS PARTICULARLY
FAVORED...ALTHOUGH PARAMETERS MAY BE SLIGHTLY BETTER EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS.

STORMS WILL EXIT EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT
TRAILING THE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH WILL CROSS OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS MAY
LINGER LONGER IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS. TEMPS DROP INTO THE 40S
WEST...BUT SLOWER ADVECTION LIMITS LOWS TO THE 50S IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY WITH
WESTERLY FLOW LOCALLY. IT WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BUT
BREEZY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WILL HELP TEMPS RISE INTO THE 60S...WITH
NEAR 70 IN THE EAST.

AN ELONGATED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TUESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE RIDGES. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S.
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ADDITIONAL UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO AID IN
PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO COULD DEVELOP IN ANY ONE PORTION OF
THE REGION. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S WHILE
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP DOWN TO THE MIDDLE 40S...WITH
EXCEPTION TO THE UPPER 30S IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
EVOLVE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 7 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. THERE
COULD BE A FEW LINGERING RAIN OR PERHAPS A SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE
HIGHER RIDGES OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT DUE TO A SLIGHT UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY...MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION ONCE AGAIN. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO PASS ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF OUR CWA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

A FEW RAIN SHOWERS COULD STILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY BUT FOR THE MOST
PART HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO TAKE CONTROL BRIEFLY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT COULD SWING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

SOME TAFS AT VFR ATTM...BUT STILL HV MVFR/IFR AT A CPL SITES. WL
BE SEEING IMPRVG CONDS ELSW. VFR LIKELY DURING MIDDAY HOURS.
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND COULD CONTAIN
STRONG WIND GUSTS/HAIL. COVERAGE/ORGANIZATION NOT EXPECTED TO BE
DEFINED ENOUGH TO PLACE SPECIFICS IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
SHIFT TO S THIS MORNING WITH WARM FRONT...THEN W WITH COLD FRONT
TONIGHT. GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND TUE AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT. MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM. VFR
CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

WINDS SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS TUESDAY NIGHT BECOMING WEST TO
NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS WEDNESDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THEN WEST TO NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WL SHIFT SOUTH WITH WARM FRONT FOR TODAY...REMAINING AT SCA
LEVELS. STORMS POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH STRONG WINDS
AND HAIL. COLD FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT WITH WIND SHIFT TO WEST.
PERHAPS A WEAKENING OF WINDS NEAR DAWN TUESDAY...BUT THEN INCREASE
AGAIN TO SCA LEVELS DURING THE DAY.

NO MARINE HAZARDS TUESDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY WITH WIND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES. NO MARINE HAZARDS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ELEVATED WATER LVLS ATTM...BUT ANOMALIES HV DECREASED SINCE
EARLIER THIS MORNING. WL BE DROPPING CSTL FLOOD WARNING FOR
DC...AND OTHER ADVYS WILL END WITH THE PASSING TIDE CYCLE.

NEED TO MONITOR FOR ONE MORE CYCLE. ANOMALIES WILL BE HIGH...AND
SHUD BE SUSTAINED UNTIL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS THIS
EVENING.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO CHARLOTTESVILLE TRANSMITTER IS EXPECTED TO
HAVE INTERMITTENT OUTAGES DUE TO SCHEDULED MAINTENANCE BETWEEN 9
AM AND 1 PM EDT TODAY. IN ADDITION...AUDIO QUALITY MAY BE
DEGREGADED DURING TIMES WHEN THE TRANSMITTER IS OPERATIONAL BEFORE
THE MAINTENANCE IS COMPLETED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MDZ011-014.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR VAZ054.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ535-536.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ535-
     536.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ535.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADS
NEAR TERM...ADS/HTS
SHORT TERM...ADS/KLW
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...ADS/KLW
MARINE...ADS/KLW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS
EQUIPMENT...



000
FXUS61 KLWX 201425
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1025 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES WILL
LIFT NORTH THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
REGION LATE MONDAY. AN UPPER LOW WILL THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CWFA IN THE LULL BTWN THE MRNG AND AFTN ROUND OF STORMS.HV HAD A
SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF CLRG BHD THE WMFNT...WHICH WL ALLOW FOR AMPLE
DESTABLILIZATION. THE 12Z ROAB FROM LWX DIDNT NEED MUCH OF A KICK.
THERE WAS PLENTY OF INSTBY AVBL ABV MRNG INVSN...WHICH IS FCST TO
BE ERODED. IN ADDITION...EXPECTING MID LVL HGT FALLS...WHICH WL
AIDE IN THE LIFT. AM FURTHER CONCERNED BY A H3 SPD MAX SLIDING UP
THE COAST JUST BEFORE FROPA.

THE MODIFIED RAOB COMES UP WITH SIMLR CAPE/SHEAR VALUES AS
PROJECTED BELOW. WBZ ON THE LOW SIDE...AND H8-5 LAPSE RATES 6.5+
C/KM. FORSEE BOTH A WIND AND HAIL THREAT...AS EVIDENCED BY THE ENH
THREAT AREA FROM SPC. LTST RUNS OF ALL GDNC CONVEY A SIMLR
SCENARIO...W/ TSRA INITIATING IN THE MTNS NEAR 18Z...AND MAKING IT
TO THE BAY AOA 00Z.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...
AIDED BY TERRAIN...DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE STORMS
WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
COVERAGE IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...BUT SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE. CONSISTENT INDICATIONS OF AROUND 1000 J/KG INSTBY AND
30 KT BULK SHEAR WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS.
THERE MAY BE SOME DISCRETE CELLS INITIALLY...EVENTUALLY MORPHING
INTO LINE SEGMENTS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DMGG WINDS...ALTHOUGH
STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL OF LARGE HAIL
TOO. WHILE HODOGRAPHS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...THERE IS SOME LLVL
VEERING AND A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF A TORNADO FROM ANY STRONG
DISCRETE CELLS. AT THIS TIME...NO AREA OF THE CWA IS PARTICULARLY
FAVORED...ALTHOUGH PARAMETERS MAY BE SLIGHTLY BETTER EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS.

STORMS WILL EXIT EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT
TRAILING THE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH WILL CROSS OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS MAY
LINGER LONGER IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS. TEMPS DROP INTO THE 40S
WEST...BUT SLOWER ADVECTION LIMITS LOWS TO THE 50S IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY WITH
WESTERLY FLOW LOCALLY. IT WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BUT
BREEZY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WILL HELP TEMPS RISE INTO THE 60S...WITH
NEAR 70 IN THE EAST.

AN ELONGATED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TUESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE RIDGES. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S.
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ADDITIONAL UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO AID IN
PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO COULD DEVELOP IN ANY ONE PORTION OF
THE REGION. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S WHILE
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP DOWN TO THE MIDDLE 40S...WITH
EXCEPTION TO THE UPPER 30S IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
EVOLVE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 7 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. THERE
COULD BE A FEW LINGERING RAIN OR PERHAPS A SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE
HIGHER RIDGES OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT DUE TO A SLIGHT UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY...MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION ONCE AGAIN. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO PASS ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF OUR CWA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

A FEW RAIN SHOWERS COULD STILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY BUT FOR THE MOST
PART HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO TAKE CONTROL BRIEFLY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT COULD SWING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

SOME TAFS AT VFR ATTM...BUT STILL HV MVFR/IFR AT A CPL SITES. WL
BE SEEING IMPRVG CONDS ELSW. VFR LIKELY DURING MIDDAY HOURS.
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND COULD CONTAIN
STRONG WIND GUSTS/HAIL. COVERAGE/ORGANIZATION NOT EXPECTED TO BE
DEFINED ENOUGH TO PLACE SPECIFICS IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
SHIFT TO S THIS MORNING WITH WARM FRONT...THEN W WITH COLD FRONT
TONIGHT. GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND TUE AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT. MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM. VFR
CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

WINDS SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS TUESDAY NIGHT BECOMING WEST TO
NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS WEDNESDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THEN WEST TO NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WL SHIFT SOUTH WITH WARM FRONT FOR TODAY...REMAINING AT SCA
LEVELS. STORMS POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH STRONG WINDS
AND HAIL. COLD FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT WITH WIND SHIFT TO WEST.
PERHAPS A WEAKENING OF WINDS NEAR DAWN TUESDAY...BUT THEN INCREASE
AGAIN TO SCA LEVELS DURING THE DAY.

NO MARINE HAZARDS TUESDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY WITH WIND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES. NO MARINE HAZARDS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ELEVATED WATER LVLS ATTM...BUT ANOMALIES HV DECREASED SINCE
EARLIER THIS MORNING. WL BE DROPPING CSTL FLOOD WARNING FOR
DC...AND OTHER ADVYS WILL END WITH THE PASSING TIDE CYCLE.

NEED TO MONITOR FOR ONE MORE CYCLE. ANOMALIES WILL BE HIGH...AND
SHUD BE SUSTAINED UNTIL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS THIS
EVENING.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO CHARLOTTESVILLE TRANSMITTER IS EXPECTED TO
HAVE INTERMITTENT OUTAGES DUE TO SCHEDULED MAINTENANCE BETWEEN 9
AM AND 1 PM EDT TODAY. IN ADDITION...AUDIO QUALITY MAY BE
DEGREGADED DURING TIMES WHEN THE TRANSMITTER IS OPERATIONAL BEFORE
THE MAINTENANCE IS COMPLETED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MDZ011-014.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR VAZ054.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ535-536.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ535-
     536.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ535.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADS
NEAR TERM...ADS/HTS
SHORT TERM...ADS/KLW
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...ADS/KLW
MARINE...ADS/KLW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS
EQUIPMENT...



000
FXUS61 KRNK 201425
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1025 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND BRING SHOWERS
AND SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. WE WILL THEN SETTLE
INTO A COOLER...BREEZY...AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING WITH ANOTHER FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1024 AM EDT MONDAY...

ACTIVE WEATHER DAY WITH LINGERING FLOODING ISSUES FROM SUNDAY TO
SUNDAY NIGHT HEAVY RAINS AND A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH COLD FRONT. SWODY1 HAS ADDED AN
ENHANCED POTENTIAL (30 PERCENT) TO SLIGHT RISK WHICH COVERS MUCH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE MAIN THREATS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. MODIFIED MORNING 12Z RNK SOUNDING SUPPORTS CONCERNS WITH
MODIFIED CAPES AROUND 1000 TO 2000 J/KG WITH HEALTHY SHEAR AROUND
40 KNOTS. ADJUSTED TIMING OF POPS CLOSER TO A BLEND OF HRRR AND
WRFRNK-ARW. MODIFIED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WITH SFC OBS AND
MODEL TRENDS. COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST ACROSS REGION THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING...THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND FRONT
TUESDAY. MORE CHANGES THIS AFTERNOON...


AS OF 525 AM EDT MONDAY...

THERE ARE LINGERING HYDRO ISSUES EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWING THE
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN FROM SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND SEVERAL
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE GRAYSON HIGHLANDS AND INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA UNTIL
AROUND 9AM. THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED WITH
ADJUSTMENTS MADE ACCORDINGLY.

THE NEXT CONCERN IS THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MESO MODELS DISSIPATE THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
CURRENTLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITH REDEVELOPMENT FIRING
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY FRONT HE BLUE RIDGE EAST. EARLY MORNING SATELLITE PICS
SHOW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AND WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 12C WE
SHOULD SEE SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE WELL INTO THE 70S TODAY. THIS
WILL GENERATE CAPE VALUES OF 1000J/KG TO 1500J/KG WHICH WILL BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT VIGOROUS CONVECTION. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL GIVE
US 0/6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40KTS TO 50KTS WITH A SOMEWHAT
LINEAR HODOGRAPH. THUS THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
PRESENT FOR A SEVERE THREAT...AND THE SPC SLIGHT RISK LOOKS TO BE
ON TARGET. WILL BE ANTICIPATING STORM CLUSTERS EVOLVING INTO
LINEAR ELEMENTS TO PRODUCE A WIND THREAT...AND THE MORE VIGOROUS
CELLS SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE TO SUPPORT
LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL AS WELL. WHILE SWATS REMAIN HIGH BELIEVE ANY
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LOCALIZED AND FURTHER EAST WHICH SHOULD HELP
AVOID AGGRAVATING THE HYDRO SITUATION. ENOUGH INGREDIENTS FOR A BUSY
AFTERNOON ON RADAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 525 AM EDT MONDAY...

BEHIND THE FRONT WE START TO SETTLE INTO A COOLER...BREEZY...AND
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN AS A BROAD CLOSED LOW TAKES UP
RESIDENCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFF TO OUR
EAST EARLY TONIGHT AND TAKE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
IT...LEAVING SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR WEST FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL DISSIPATE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY. COULD SEE THE
OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY OF COOKING UP SOME SHOWERS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BUT BELIEVE THE POPS ARE TOO SMALL TO MENTION SO WILL
KEEP THINGS UNDER 15 PERCENT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL ROTATE THROUGH
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL HAVE SOME SLIGHT INSTABILITY AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES TO WARRANT A MENTION OF THUNDER. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BRING WHAT LOOKS
TO BE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...

BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE AND DOMINATES THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...GRADUALLY SHIFTING FURTHER ESE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
THIS KEEPS THE REGION IN AN UNSTABLE/UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW WITH
NUMEROUS EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES. MODELS VARY CONSIDERABLY AS TO THE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE DISTURBANCES...BUT ENOUGH AGREEMENT
THAT POPS CANNOT BE DROPPED REALLY AT ANY TIME THE OVERALL TREND
IS TO PUSH THE BETTER MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES AND 850MB TEMPS DROP BELOW 0C IN THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES. THE ENTIRE PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH LOW CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WITH THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT THE
DRIEST. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...NO REAL CLEAR CONCERN AT THIS POINT FOR FROST/FREEZE
BECAUSE OF CYCLONIC FLOW AND CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 750 AM EDT MONDAY...

CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL
MOVE EAST INTO VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA THIS MORNING.
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS THIS PRECIPITATION WILL REACH KBLF
BEFORE 16Z.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL BRING BREEZY AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO THE AREA INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...SO WIND GUSTS WITH ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AT KLYH AND KDAN MAY APPROACH 50 KNOTS. DO NOT
EXPECT TO HAVE ANYTHING THAT INTENSE THAT FAR EAST UNTIL AFTER
18Z.

IN THE EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT...MODELS WERE INDICATING SOME MVFR
CEILINGS IN THE MOUNTAINS. ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE HOW LOW
CEILINGS WILL GET ONCE THE SHOWERS CLEAR OUT AFTER SUNSET.

EXTENDED AVIATION...

VFR RETURNS LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS.

THEN THE NEXT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE
IN THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...KK/MBS
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS/RCS



000
FXUS61 KRNK 201425
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1025 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND BRING SHOWERS
AND SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. WE WILL THEN SETTLE
INTO A COOLER...BREEZY...AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING WITH ANOTHER FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1024 AM EDT MONDAY...

ACTIVE WEATHER DAY WITH LINGERING FLOODING ISSUES FROM SUNDAY TO
SUNDAY NIGHT HEAVY RAINS AND A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH COLD FRONT. SWODY1 HAS ADDED AN
ENHANCED POTENTIAL (30 PERCENT) TO SLIGHT RISK WHICH COVERS MUCH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE MAIN THREATS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. MODIFIED MORNING 12Z RNK SOUNDING SUPPORTS CONCERNS WITH
MODIFIED CAPES AROUND 1000 TO 2000 J/KG WITH HEALTHY SHEAR AROUND
40 KNOTS. ADJUSTED TIMING OF POPS CLOSER TO A BLEND OF HRRR AND
WRFRNK-ARW. MODIFIED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WITH SFC OBS AND
MODEL TRENDS. COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST ACROSS REGION THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING...THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND FRONT
TUESDAY. MORE CHANGES THIS AFTERNOON...


AS OF 525 AM EDT MONDAY...

THERE ARE LINGERING HYDRO ISSUES EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWING THE
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN FROM SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND SEVERAL
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE GRAYSON HIGHLANDS AND INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA UNTIL
AROUND 9AM. THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED WITH
ADJUSTMENTS MADE ACCORDINGLY.

THE NEXT CONCERN IS THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MESO MODELS DISSIPATE THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
CURRENTLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITH REDEVELOPMENT FIRING
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY FRONT HE BLUE RIDGE EAST. EARLY MORNING SATELLITE PICS
SHOW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AND WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 12C WE
SHOULD SEE SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE WELL INTO THE 70S TODAY. THIS
WILL GENERATE CAPE VALUES OF 1000J/KG TO 1500J/KG WHICH WILL BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT VIGOROUS CONVECTION. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL GIVE
US 0/6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40KTS TO 50KTS WITH A SOMEWHAT
LINEAR HODOGRAPH. THUS THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
PRESENT FOR A SEVERE THREAT...AND THE SPC SLIGHT RISK LOOKS TO BE
ON TARGET. WILL BE ANTICIPATING STORM CLUSTERS EVOLVING INTO
LINEAR ELEMENTS TO PRODUCE A WIND THREAT...AND THE MORE VIGOROUS
CELLS SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE TO SUPPORT
LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL AS WELL. WHILE SWATS REMAIN HIGH BELIEVE ANY
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LOCALIZED AND FURTHER EAST WHICH SHOULD HELP
AVOID AGGRAVATING THE HYDRO SITUATION. ENOUGH INGREDIENTS FOR A BUSY
AFTERNOON ON RADAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 525 AM EDT MONDAY...

BEHIND THE FRONT WE START TO SETTLE INTO A COOLER...BREEZY...AND
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN AS A BROAD CLOSED LOW TAKES UP
RESIDENCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFF TO OUR
EAST EARLY TONIGHT AND TAKE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
IT...LEAVING SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR WEST FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL DISSIPATE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY. COULD SEE THE
OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY OF COOKING UP SOME SHOWERS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BUT BELIEVE THE POPS ARE TOO SMALL TO MENTION SO WILL
KEEP THINGS UNDER 15 PERCENT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL ROTATE THROUGH
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL HAVE SOME SLIGHT INSTABILITY AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES TO WARRANT A MENTION OF THUNDER. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BRING WHAT LOOKS
TO BE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...

BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE AND DOMINATES THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...GRADUALLY SHIFTING FURTHER ESE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
THIS KEEPS THE REGION IN AN UNSTABLE/UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW WITH
NUMEROUS EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES. MODELS VARY CONSIDERABLY AS TO THE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE DISTURBANCES...BUT ENOUGH AGREEMENT
THAT POPS CANNOT BE DROPPED REALLY AT ANY TIME THE OVERALL TREND
IS TO PUSH THE BETTER MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES AND 850MB TEMPS DROP BELOW 0C IN THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES. THE ENTIRE PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH LOW CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WITH THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT THE
DRIEST. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...NO REAL CLEAR CONCERN AT THIS POINT FOR FROST/FREEZE
BECAUSE OF CYCLONIC FLOW AND CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 750 AM EDT MONDAY...

CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL
MOVE EAST INTO VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA THIS MORNING.
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS THIS PRECIPITATION WILL REACH KBLF
BEFORE 16Z.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL BRING BREEZY AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO THE AREA INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...SO WIND GUSTS WITH ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AT KLYH AND KDAN MAY APPROACH 50 KNOTS. DO NOT
EXPECT TO HAVE ANYTHING THAT INTENSE THAT FAR EAST UNTIL AFTER
18Z.

IN THE EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT...MODELS WERE INDICATING SOME MVFR
CEILINGS IN THE MOUNTAINS. ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE HOW LOW
CEILINGS WILL GET ONCE THE SHOWERS CLEAR OUT AFTER SUNSET.

EXTENDED AVIATION...

VFR RETURNS LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS.

THEN THE NEXT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE
IN THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...KK/MBS
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS/RCS



000
FXUS61 KRNK 201425
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1025 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND BRING SHOWERS
AND SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. WE WILL THEN SETTLE
INTO A COOLER...BREEZY...AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING WITH ANOTHER FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1024 AM EDT MONDAY...

ACTIVE WEATHER DAY WITH LINGERING FLOODING ISSUES FROM SUNDAY TO
SUNDAY NIGHT HEAVY RAINS AND A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH COLD FRONT. SWODY1 HAS ADDED AN
ENHANCED POTENTIAL (30 PERCENT) TO SLIGHT RISK WHICH COVERS MUCH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE MAIN THREATS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. MODIFIED MORNING 12Z RNK SOUNDING SUPPORTS CONCERNS WITH
MODIFIED CAPES AROUND 1000 TO 2000 J/KG WITH HEALTHY SHEAR AROUND
40 KNOTS. ADJUSTED TIMING OF POPS CLOSER TO A BLEND OF HRRR AND
WRFRNK-ARW. MODIFIED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WITH SFC OBS AND
MODEL TRENDS. COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST ACROSS REGION THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING...THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND FRONT
TUESDAY. MORE CHANGES THIS AFTERNOON...


AS OF 525 AM EDT MONDAY...

THERE ARE LINGERING HYDRO ISSUES EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWING THE
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN FROM SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND SEVERAL
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE GRAYSON HIGHLANDS AND INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA UNTIL
AROUND 9AM. THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED WITH
ADJUSTMENTS MADE ACCORDINGLY.

THE NEXT CONCERN IS THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MESO MODELS DISSIPATE THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
CURRENTLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITH REDEVELOPMENT FIRING
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY FRONT HE BLUE RIDGE EAST. EARLY MORNING SATELLITE PICS
SHOW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AND WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 12C WE
SHOULD SEE SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE WELL INTO THE 70S TODAY. THIS
WILL GENERATE CAPE VALUES OF 1000J/KG TO 1500J/KG WHICH WILL BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT VIGOROUS CONVECTION. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL GIVE
US 0/6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40KTS TO 50KTS WITH A SOMEWHAT
LINEAR HODOGRAPH. THUS THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
PRESENT FOR A SEVERE THREAT...AND THE SPC SLIGHT RISK LOOKS TO BE
ON TARGET. WILL BE ANTICIPATING STORM CLUSTERS EVOLVING INTO
LINEAR ELEMENTS TO PRODUCE A WIND THREAT...AND THE MORE VIGOROUS
CELLS SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE TO SUPPORT
LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL AS WELL. WHILE SWATS REMAIN HIGH BELIEVE ANY
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LOCALIZED AND FURTHER EAST WHICH SHOULD HELP
AVOID AGGRAVATING THE HYDRO SITUATION. ENOUGH INGREDIENTS FOR A BUSY
AFTERNOON ON RADAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 525 AM EDT MONDAY...

BEHIND THE FRONT WE START TO SETTLE INTO A COOLER...BREEZY...AND
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN AS A BROAD CLOSED LOW TAKES UP
RESIDENCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFF TO OUR
EAST EARLY TONIGHT AND TAKE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
IT...LEAVING SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR WEST FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL DISSIPATE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY. COULD SEE THE
OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY OF COOKING UP SOME SHOWERS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BUT BELIEVE THE POPS ARE TOO SMALL TO MENTION SO WILL
KEEP THINGS UNDER 15 PERCENT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL ROTATE THROUGH
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL HAVE SOME SLIGHT INSTABILITY AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES TO WARRANT A MENTION OF THUNDER. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BRING WHAT LOOKS
TO BE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...

BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE AND DOMINATES THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...GRADUALLY SHIFTING FURTHER ESE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
THIS KEEPS THE REGION IN AN UNSTABLE/UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW WITH
NUMEROUS EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES. MODELS VARY CONSIDERABLY AS TO THE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE DISTURBANCES...BUT ENOUGH AGREEMENT
THAT POPS CANNOT BE DROPPED REALLY AT ANY TIME THE OVERALL TREND
IS TO PUSH THE BETTER MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES AND 850MB TEMPS DROP BELOW 0C IN THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES. THE ENTIRE PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH LOW CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WITH THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT THE
DRIEST. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...NO REAL CLEAR CONCERN AT THIS POINT FOR FROST/FREEZE
BECAUSE OF CYCLONIC FLOW AND CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 750 AM EDT MONDAY...

CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL
MOVE EAST INTO VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA THIS MORNING.
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS THIS PRECIPITATION WILL REACH KBLF
BEFORE 16Z.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL BRING BREEZY AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO THE AREA INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...SO WIND GUSTS WITH ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AT KLYH AND KDAN MAY APPROACH 50 KNOTS. DO NOT
EXPECT TO HAVE ANYTHING THAT INTENSE THAT FAR EAST UNTIL AFTER
18Z.

IN THE EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT...MODELS WERE INDICATING SOME MVFR
CEILINGS IN THE MOUNTAINS. ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE HOW LOW
CEILINGS WILL GET ONCE THE SHOWERS CLEAR OUT AFTER SUNSET.

EXTENDED AVIATION...

VFR RETURNS LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS.

THEN THE NEXT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE
IN THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...KK/MBS
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS/RCS



000
FXUS61 KRNK 201425
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1025 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND BRING SHOWERS
AND SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. WE WILL THEN SETTLE
INTO A COOLER...BREEZY...AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING WITH ANOTHER FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1024 AM EDT MONDAY...

ACTIVE WEATHER DAY WITH LINGERING FLOODING ISSUES FROM SUNDAY TO
SUNDAY NIGHT HEAVY RAINS AND A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH COLD FRONT. SWODY1 HAS ADDED AN
ENHANCED POTENTIAL (30 PERCENT) TO SLIGHT RISK WHICH COVERS MUCH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE MAIN THREATS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. MODIFIED MORNING 12Z RNK SOUNDING SUPPORTS CONCERNS WITH
MODIFIED CAPES AROUND 1000 TO 2000 J/KG WITH HEALTHY SHEAR AROUND
40 KNOTS. ADJUSTED TIMING OF POPS CLOSER TO A BLEND OF HRRR AND
WRFRNK-ARW. MODIFIED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WITH SFC OBS AND
MODEL TRENDS. COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST ACROSS REGION THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING...THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND FRONT
TUESDAY. MORE CHANGES THIS AFTERNOON...


AS OF 525 AM EDT MONDAY...

THERE ARE LINGERING HYDRO ISSUES EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWING THE
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN FROM SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND SEVERAL
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE GRAYSON HIGHLANDS AND INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA UNTIL
AROUND 9AM. THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED WITH
ADJUSTMENTS MADE ACCORDINGLY.

THE NEXT CONCERN IS THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MESO MODELS DISSIPATE THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
CURRENTLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITH REDEVELOPMENT FIRING
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY FRONT HE BLUE RIDGE EAST. EARLY MORNING SATELLITE PICS
SHOW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AND WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 12C WE
SHOULD SEE SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE WELL INTO THE 70S TODAY. THIS
WILL GENERATE CAPE VALUES OF 1000J/KG TO 1500J/KG WHICH WILL BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT VIGOROUS CONVECTION. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL GIVE
US 0/6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40KTS TO 50KTS WITH A SOMEWHAT
LINEAR HODOGRAPH. THUS THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
PRESENT FOR A SEVERE THREAT...AND THE SPC SLIGHT RISK LOOKS TO BE
ON TARGET. WILL BE ANTICIPATING STORM CLUSTERS EVOLVING INTO
LINEAR ELEMENTS TO PRODUCE A WIND THREAT...AND THE MORE VIGOROUS
CELLS SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE TO SUPPORT
LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL AS WELL. WHILE SWATS REMAIN HIGH BELIEVE ANY
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LOCALIZED AND FURTHER EAST WHICH SHOULD HELP
AVOID AGGRAVATING THE HYDRO SITUATION. ENOUGH INGREDIENTS FOR A BUSY
AFTERNOON ON RADAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 525 AM EDT MONDAY...

BEHIND THE FRONT WE START TO SETTLE INTO A COOLER...BREEZY...AND
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN AS A BROAD CLOSED LOW TAKES UP
RESIDENCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFF TO OUR
EAST EARLY TONIGHT AND TAKE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
IT...LEAVING SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR WEST FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL DISSIPATE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY. COULD SEE THE
OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY OF COOKING UP SOME SHOWERS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BUT BELIEVE THE POPS ARE TOO SMALL TO MENTION SO WILL
KEEP THINGS UNDER 15 PERCENT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL ROTATE THROUGH
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL HAVE SOME SLIGHT INSTABILITY AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES TO WARRANT A MENTION OF THUNDER. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BRING WHAT LOOKS
TO BE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...

BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE AND DOMINATES THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...GRADUALLY SHIFTING FURTHER ESE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
THIS KEEPS THE REGION IN AN UNSTABLE/UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW WITH
NUMEROUS EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES. MODELS VARY CONSIDERABLY AS TO THE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE DISTURBANCES...BUT ENOUGH AGREEMENT
THAT POPS CANNOT BE DROPPED REALLY AT ANY TIME THE OVERALL TREND
IS TO PUSH THE BETTER MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES AND 850MB TEMPS DROP BELOW 0C IN THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES. THE ENTIRE PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH LOW CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WITH THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT THE
DRIEST. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...NO REAL CLEAR CONCERN AT THIS POINT FOR FROST/FREEZE
BECAUSE OF CYCLONIC FLOW AND CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 750 AM EDT MONDAY...

CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL
MOVE EAST INTO VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA THIS MORNING.
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS THIS PRECIPITATION WILL REACH KBLF
BEFORE 16Z.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL BRING BREEZY AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO THE AREA INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...SO WIND GUSTS WITH ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AT KLYH AND KDAN MAY APPROACH 50 KNOTS. DO NOT
EXPECT TO HAVE ANYTHING THAT INTENSE THAT FAR EAST UNTIL AFTER
18Z.

IN THE EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT...MODELS WERE INDICATING SOME MVFR
CEILINGS IN THE MOUNTAINS. ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE HOW LOW
CEILINGS WILL GET ONCE THE SHOWERS CLEAR OUT AFTER SUNSET.

EXTENDED AVIATION...

VFR RETURNS LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS.

THEN THE NEXT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE
IN THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...KK/MBS
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS/RCS



000
FXUS61 KLWX 201425
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1025 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES WILL
LIFT NORTH THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
REGION LATE MONDAY. AN UPPER LOW WILL THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CWFA IN THE LULL BTWN THE MRNG AND AFTN ROUND OF STORMS.HV HAD A
SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF CLRG BHD THE WMFNT...WHICH WL ALLOW FOR AMPLE
DESTABLILIZATION. THE 12Z ROAB FROM LWX DIDNT NEED MUCH OF A KICK.
THERE WAS PLENTY OF INSTBY AVBL ABV MRNG INVSN...WHICH IS FCST TO
BE ERODED. IN ADDITION...EXPECTING MID LVL HGT FALLS...WHICH WL
AIDE IN THE LIFT. AM FURTHER CONCERNED BY A H3 SPD MAX SLIDING UP
THE COAST JUST BEFORE FROPA.

THE MODIFIED RAOB COMES UP WITH SIMLR CAPE/SHEAR VALUES AS
PROJECTED BELOW. WBZ ON THE LOW SIDE...AND H8-5 LAPSE RATES 6.5+
C/KM. FORSEE BOTH A WIND AND HAIL THREAT...AS EVIDENCED BY THE ENH
THREAT AREA FROM SPC. LTST RUNS OF ALL GDNC CONVEY A SIMLR
SCENARIO...W/ TSRA INITIATING IN THE MTNS NEAR 18Z...AND MAKING IT
TO THE BAY AOA 00Z.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...
AIDED BY TERRAIN...DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE STORMS
WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
COVERAGE IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...BUT SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE. CONSISTENT INDICATIONS OF AROUND 1000 J/KG INSTBY AND
30 KT BULK SHEAR WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS.
THERE MAY BE SOME DISCRETE CELLS INITIALLY...EVENTUALLY MORPHING
INTO LINE SEGMENTS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DMGG WINDS...ALTHOUGH
STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL OF LARGE HAIL
TOO. WHILE HODOGRAPHS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...THERE IS SOME LLVL
VEERING AND A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF A TORNADO FROM ANY STRONG
DISCRETE CELLS. AT THIS TIME...NO AREA OF THE CWA IS PARTICULARLY
FAVORED...ALTHOUGH PARAMETERS MAY BE SLIGHTLY BETTER EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS.

STORMS WILL EXIT EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT
TRAILING THE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH WILL CROSS OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS MAY
LINGER LONGER IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS. TEMPS DROP INTO THE 40S
WEST...BUT SLOWER ADVECTION LIMITS LOWS TO THE 50S IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY WITH
WESTERLY FLOW LOCALLY. IT WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BUT
BREEZY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WILL HELP TEMPS RISE INTO THE 60S...WITH
NEAR 70 IN THE EAST.

AN ELONGATED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TUESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE RIDGES. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S.
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ADDITIONAL UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO AID IN
PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO COULD DEVELOP IN ANY ONE PORTION OF
THE REGION. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S WHILE
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP DOWN TO THE MIDDLE 40S...WITH
EXCEPTION TO THE UPPER 30S IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
EVOLVE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 7 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. THERE
COULD BE A FEW LINGERING RAIN OR PERHAPS A SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE
HIGHER RIDGES OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT DUE TO A SLIGHT UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY...MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION ONCE AGAIN. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO PASS ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF OUR CWA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

A FEW RAIN SHOWERS COULD STILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY BUT FOR THE MOST
PART HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO TAKE CONTROL BRIEFLY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT COULD SWING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

SOME TAFS AT VFR ATTM...BUT STILL HV MVFR/IFR AT A CPL SITES. WL
BE SEEING IMPRVG CONDS ELSW. VFR LIKELY DURING MIDDAY HOURS.
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND COULD CONTAIN
STRONG WIND GUSTS/HAIL. COVERAGE/ORGANIZATION NOT EXPECTED TO BE
DEFINED ENOUGH TO PLACE SPECIFICS IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
SHIFT TO S THIS MORNING WITH WARM FRONT...THEN W WITH COLD FRONT
TONIGHT. GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND TUE AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT. MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM. VFR
CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

WINDS SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS TUESDAY NIGHT BECOMING WEST TO
NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS WEDNESDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THEN WEST TO NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WL SHIFT SOUTH WITH WARM FRONT FOR TODAY...REMAINING AT SCA
LEVELS. STORMS POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH STRONG WINDS
AND HAIL. COLD FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT WITH WIND SHIFT TO WEST.
PERHAPS A WEAKENING OF WINDS NEAR DAWN TUESDAY...BUT THEN INCREASE
AGAIN TO SCA LEVELS DURING THE DAY.

NO MARINE HAZARDS TUESDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY WITH WIND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES. NO MARINE HAZARDS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ELEVATED WATER LVLS ATTM...BUT ANOMALIES HV DECREASED SINCE
EARLIER THIS MORNING. WL BE DROPPING CSTL FLOOD WARNING FOR
DC...AND OTHER ADVYS WILL END WITH THE PASSING TIDE CYCLE.

NEED TO MONITOR FOR ONE MORE CYCLE. ANOMALIES WILL BE HIGH...AND
SHUD BE SUSTAINED UNTIL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS THIS
EVENING.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO CHARLOTTESVILLE TRANSMITTER IS EXPECTED TO
HAVE INTERMITTENT OUTAGES DUE TO SCHEDULED MAINTENANCE BETWEEN 9
AM AND 1 PM EDT TODAY. IN ADDITION...AUDIO QUALITY MAY BE
DEGREGADED DURING TIMES WHEN THE TRANSMITTER IS OPERATIONAL BEFORE
THE MAINTENANCE IS COMPLETED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MDZ011-014.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR VAZ054.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ535-536.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ535-
     536.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ535.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADS
NEAR TERM...ADS/HTS
SHORT TERM...ADS/KLW
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...ADS/KLW
MARINE...ADS/KLW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KLWX 201226
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
826 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES WILL
LIFT NORTH THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
REGION LATE MONDAY. AN UPPER LOW WILL THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WASHINGTON DC.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IN THE TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING SECTION
BELOW.

...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS MORNING...PRIMARY SFC LOW IS CENTERED OVER MI...WITH
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL VA. LLJ/UPPER JET STREAK
INDUCED MDT/HVY RAINFALL IS PIVOTING NE...WITH DRYING NOTED IN WV
IMAGERY.

A WARM FRONT LOCATED OVER CENTRAL VA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY
LIFT TO THE NORTH...LEADING TO A RELATIVE DRY BREAK INTO THE MIDDAY
HOURS. HOW THE ATMOSPHERE IS ABLE TO RECOVER WILL DETERMINE SVR WX
CHANCES LATER TODAY. MAY TAKE LLVL CLOUDS A BIT TO SCOUR OUT...THEN
QUESTION BECOMES HOW MUCH MID/HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUD PERSISTS.
MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR HIGHS IN THE 70S...ALTHOUGH READINGS WILL
SOAR IF PROLONGED SUN DEVELOPS.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH...AIDED BY TERRAIN...DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE
STORMS WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. COVERAGE IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...BUT SCATTERED-NUMEROUS
SEEMS PLAUSIBLE. CONSISTENT INDICATIONS OF AROUND 1000 J/KG INSTBY
AND 30 KT BULK SHEAR WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS. THERE MAY BE SOME DISCRETE CELLS INITIALLY...EVENTUALLY
MORPHING INTO LINE SEGMENTS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DMGG
WINDS...ALTHOUGH STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL OF LARGE HAIL TOO. WHILE HODOGRAPHS NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE...THERE IS SOME LLVL VEERING AND A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF
A TORNADO FROM ANY STRONG DISCRETE CELLS. AT THIS TIME...NO AREA
OF THE CWA IS PARTICULARLY FAVORED...ALTHOUGH PARAMETERS MAY BE
SLIGHTLY BETTER EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.

STORMS WILL EXIT EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT
TRAILING THE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH WILL CROSS OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS MAY
LINGER LONGER IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS. TEMPS DROP INTO THE 40S
WEST...BUT SLOWER ADVECTION LIMITS LOWS TO THE 50S IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY WITH
WESTERLY FLOW LOCALLY. IT WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BUT
BREEZY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WILL HELP TEMPS RISE INTO THE 60S...WITH
NEAR 70 IN THE EAST.

AN ELONGATED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TUESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE RIDGES. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S.
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ADDITIONAL UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO AID IN
PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO COULD DEVELOP IN ANY ONE PORTION OF
THE REGION. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S WHILE
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP DOWN TO THE MIDDLE 40S...WITH
EXCEPTION TO THE UPPER 30S IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
EVOLVE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 7 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. THERE
COULD BE A FEW LINGERING RAIN OR PERHAPS A SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE
HIGHER RIDGES OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT DUE TO A SLIGHT UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY...MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION ONCE AGAIN. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO PASS ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF OUR CWA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

A FEW RAIN SHOWERS COULD STILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY BUT FOR THE MOST
PART HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO TAKE CONTROL BRIEFLY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT COULD SWING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MDT/LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL EXIT FROM S TO N EARLY THIS MORNING.
VSBYS WILL IMPROVE BUT QUESTIONABLE HOW QUICKLY MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL
SCOUR OUT...LIKELY BY MID/LATE MORNING. VFR LIKELY DURING MIDDAY
HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND COULD
CONTAIN STRONG WIND GUSTS/HAIL. COVERAGE/ORGANIZATION NOT EXPECTED
TO BE DEFINED ENOUGH TO PLACE SPECIFICS IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
SHIFT TO S THIS MORNING WITH WARM FRONT...THEN W WITH COLD FRONT
TONIGHT. GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND TUE AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT. MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM. VFR
CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
WINDS SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS TUESDAY NIGHT BECOMING WEST TO
NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS WEDNESDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THEN WEST TO NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ONCE HEAVIER RAIN EXITS AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...THE THREAT OF
GALE GUSTS WILL END. WINDS THEN SHIFT SOUTH WITH WARM FRONT FOR
TODAY...REMAINING AT SCA LEVELS. STORMS POSSIBLE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL. COLD FRONT CROSSES
TONIGHT WITH WIND SHIFT TO WEST. PERHAPS A WEAKENING OF WINDS NEAR
DAWN TUESDAY...BUT THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO SCA LEVELS DURING THE
DAY.

NO MARINE HAZARDS TUESDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY WITH WIND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES. NO MARINE HAZARDS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE POTOMAC RIVER AT
WASHINGTON DC. MAIN CONCERN IS THE AREA NEAR WASHINGTON CHANNEL AT
SW WATERFRONT...WHERE ANOMALIES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO 2 FEET...WHICH
WOULD RESULT IN MODERATE FLOODING. THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR
THE ALEXANDRIA SIDE OF THE POTOMAC HAS BEEN EXTENDED FROM 8 AM TO
NOON.

...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ESE WINDS HAVE CAUSED WATER LEVELS TO RISE TO AROUND A FOOT OR
SLIGHTLY HIGHER ABOVE ASTRO NORMS. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS
MOST LIKELY AT ANNAPOLIS...BALTIMORE AND DC/ALEXANDRIA FOR THE
MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE. FLOW BECOMES SWLY LATER TODAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT SO THE COASTAL FLOOD THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
PAST HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO CHARLOTTESVILLE TRANSMITTER IS EXPECTED TO
HAVE INTERMITTENT OUTAGES DUE TO SCHEDULED MAINTENANCE BETWEEN 9
AM AND 1 PM EDT TODAY. IN ADDITION...AUDIO QUALITY MAY BE
DEGREGADED DURING TIMES WHEN THE TRANSMITTER IS OPERATIONAL BEFORE
THE MAINTENANCE IS COMPLETED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ011-
     014.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR VAZ054.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ535-536.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ535-
     536.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ535.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADS
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...ADS/KLW
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...ADS/KLW
MARINE...ADS/KLW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KCS
EQUIPMENT...KCS



000
FXUS61 KLWX 201226
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
826 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES WILL
LIFT NORTH THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
REGION LATE MONDAY. AN UPPER LOW WILL THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WASHINGTON DC.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IN THE TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING SECTION
BELOW.

...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS MORNING...PRIMARY SFC LOW IS CENTERED OVER MI...WITH
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL VA. LLJ/UPPER JET STREAK
INDUCED MDT/HVY RAINFALL IS PIVOTING NE...WITH DRYING NOTED IN WV
IMAGERY.

A WARM FRONT LOCATED OVER CENTRAL VA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY
LIFT TO THE NORTH...LEADING TO A RELATIVE DRY BREAK INTO THE MIDDAY
HOURS. HOW THE ATMOSPHERE IS ABLE TO RECOVER WILL DETERMINE SVR WX
CHANCES LATER TODAY. MAY TAKE LLVL CLOUDS A BIT TO SCOUR OUT...THEN
QUESTION BECOMES HOW MUCH MID/HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUD PERSISTS.
MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR HIGHS IN THE 70S...ALTHOUGH READINGS WILL
SOAR IF PROLONGED SUN DEVELOPS.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH...AIDED BY TERRAIN...DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE
STORMS WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. COVERAGE IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...BUT SCATTERED-NUMEROUS
SEEMS PLAUSIBLE. CONSISTENT INDICATIONS OF AROUND 1000 J/KG INSTBY
AND 30 KT BULK SHEAR WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS. THERE MAY BE SOME DISCRETE CELLS INITIALLY...EVENTUALLY
MORPHING INTO LINE SEGMENTS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DMGG
WINDS...ALTHOUGH STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL OF LARGE HAIL TOO. WHILE HODOGRAPHS NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE...THERE IS SOME LLVL VEERING AND A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF
A TORNADO FROM ANY STRONG DISCRETE CELLS. AT THIS TIME...NO AREA
OF THE CWA IS PARTICULARLY FAVORED...ALTHOUGH PARAMETERS MAY BE
SLIGHTLY BETTER EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.

STORMS WILL EXIT EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT
TRAILING THE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH WILL CROSS OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS MAY
LINGER LONGER IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS. TEMPS DROP INTO THE 40S
WEST...BUT SLOWER ADVECTION LIMITS LOWS TO THE 50S IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY WITH
WESTERLY FLOW LOCALLY. IT WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BUT
BREEZY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WILL HELP TEMPS RISE INTO THE 60S...WITH
NEAR 70 IN THE EAST.

AN ELONGATED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TUESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE RIDGES. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S.
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ADDITIONAL UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO AID IN
PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO COULD DEVELOP IN ANY ONE PORTION OF
THE REGION. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S WHILE
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP DOWN TO THE MIDDLE 40S...WITH
EXCEPTION TO THE UPPER 30S IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
EVOLVE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 7 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. THERE
COULD BE A FEW LINGERING RAIN OR PERHAPS A SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE
HIGHER RIDGES OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT DUE TO A SLIGHT UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY...MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION ONCE AGAIN. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO PASS ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF OUR CWA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

A FEW RAIN SHOWERS COULD STILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY BUT FOR THE MOST
PART HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO TAKE CONTROL BRIEFLY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT COULD SWING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MDT/LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL EXIT FROM S TO N EARLY THIS MORNING.
VSBYS WILL IMPROVE BUT QUESTIONABLE HOW QUICKLY MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL
SCOUR OUT...LIKELY BY MID/LATE MORNING. VFR LIKELY DURING MIDDAY
HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND COULD
CONTAIN STRONG WIND GUSTS/HAIL. COVERAGE/ORGANIZATION NOT EXPECTED
TO BE DEFINED ENOUGH TO PLACE SPECIFICS IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
SHIFT TO S THIS MORNING WITH WARM FRONT...THEN W WITH COLD FRONT
TONIGHT. GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND TUE AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT. MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM. VFR
CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
WINDS SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS TUESDAY NIGHT BECOMING WEST TO
NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS WEDNESDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THEN WEST TO NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ONCE HEAVIER RAIN EXITS AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...THE THREAT OF
GALE GUSTS WILL END. WINDS THEN SHIFT SOUTH WITH WARM FRONT FOR
TODAY...REMAINING AT SCA LEVELS. STORMS POSSIBLE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL. COLD FRONT CROSSES
TONIGHT WITH WIND SHIFT TO WEST. PERHAPS A WEAKENING OF WINDS NEAR
DAWN TUESDAY...BUT THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO SCA LEVELS DURING THE
DAY.

NO MARINE HAZARDS TUESDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY WITH WIND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES. NO MARINE HAZARDS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE POTOMAC RIVER AT
WASHINGTON DC. MAIN CONCERN IS THE AREA NEAR WASHINGTON CHANNEL AT
SW WATERFRONT...WHERE ANOMALIES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO 2 FEET...WHICH
WOULD RESULT IN MODERATE FLOODING. THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR
THE ALEXANDRIA SIDE OF THE POTOMAC HAS BEEN EXTENDED FROM 8 AM TO
NOON.

...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ESE WINDS HAVE CAUSED WATER LEVELS TO RISE TO AROUND A FOOT OR
SLIGHTLY HIGHER ABOVE ASTRO NORMS. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS
MOST LIKELY AT ANNAPOLIS...BALTIMORE AND DC/ALEXANDRIA FOR THE
MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE. FLOW BECOMES SWLY LATER TODAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT SO THE COASTAL FLOOD THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
PAST HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO CHARLOTTESVILLE TRANSMITTER IS EXPECTED TO
HAVE INTERMITTENT OUTAGES DUE TO SCHEDULED MAINTENANCE BETWEEN 9
AM AND 1 PM EDT TODAY. IN ADDITION...AUDIO QUALITY MAY BE
DEGREGADED DURING TIMES WHEN THE TRANSMITTER IS OPERATIONAL BEFORE
THE MAINTENANCE IS COMPLETED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ011-
     014.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR VAZ054.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ535-536.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ535-
     536.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ535.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADS
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...ADS/KLW
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...ADS/KLW
MARINE...ADS/KLW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KCS
EQUIPMENT...KCS



000
FXUS61 KLWX 201226
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
826 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES WILL
LIFT NORTH THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
REGION LATE MONDAY. AN UPPER LOW WILL THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WASHINGTON DC.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IN THE TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING SECTION
BELOW.

...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS MORNING...PRIMARY SFC LOW IS CENTERED OVER MI...WITH
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL VA. LLJ/UPPER JET STREAK
INDUCED MDT/HVY RAINFALL IS PIVOTING NE...WITH DRYING NOTED IN WV
IMAGERY.

A WARM FRONT LOCATED OVER CENTRAL VA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY
LIFT TO THE NORTH...LEADING TO A RELATIVE DRY BREAK INTO THE MIDDAY
HOURS. HOW THE ATMOSPHERE IS ABLE TO RECOVER WILL DETERMINE SVR WX
CHANCES LATER TODAY. MAY TAKE LLVL CLOUDS A BIT TO SCOUR OUT...THEN
QUESTION BECOMES HOW MUCH MID/HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUD PERSISTS.
MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR HIGHS IN THE 70S...ALTHOUGH READINGS WILL
SOAR IF PROLONGED SUN DEVELOPS.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH...AIDED BY TERRAIN...DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE
STORMS WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. COVERAGE IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...BUT SCATTERED-NUMEROUS
SEEMS PLAUSIBLE. CONSISTENT INDICATIONS OF AROUND 1000 J/KG INSTBY
AND 30 KT BULK SHEAR WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS. THERE MAY BE SOME DISCRETE CELLS INITIALLY...EVENTUALLY
MORPHING INTO LINE SEGMENTS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DMGG
WINDS...ALTHOUGH STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL OF LARGE HAIL TOO. WHILE HODOGRAPHS NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE...THERE IS SOME LLVL VEERING AND A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF
A TORNADO FROM ANY STRONG DISCRETE CELLS. AT THIS TIME...NO AREA
OF THE CWA IS PARTICULARLY FAVORED...ALTHOUGH PARAMETERS MAY BE
SLIGHTLY BETTER EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.

STORMS WILL EXIT EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT
TRAILING THE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH WILL CROSS OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS MAY
LINGER LONGER IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS. TEMPS DROP INTO THE 40S
WEST...BUT SLOWER ADVECTION LIMITS LOWS TO THE 50S IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY WITH
WESTERLY FLOW LOCALLY. IT WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BUT
BREEZY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WILL HELP TEMPS RISE INTO THE 60S...WITH
NEAR 70 IN THE EAST.

AN ELONGATED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TUESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE RIDGES. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S.
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ADDITIONAL UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO AID IN
PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO COULD DEVELOP IN ANY ONE PORTION OF
THE REGION. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S WHILE
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP DOWN TO THE MIDDLE 40S...WITH
EXCEPTION TO THE UPPER 30S IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
EVOLVE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 7 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. THERE
COULD BE A FEW LINGERING RAIN OR PERHAPS A SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE
HIGHER RIDGES OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT DUE TO A SLIGHT UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY...MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION ONCE AGAIN. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO PASS ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF OUR CWA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

A FEW RAIN SHOWERS COULD STILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY BUT FOR THE MOST
PART HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO TAKE CONTROL BRIEFLY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT COULD SWING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MDT/LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL EXIT FROM S TO N EARLY THIS MORNING.
VSBYS WILL IMPROVE BUT QUESTIONABLE HOW QUICKLY MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL
SCOUR OUT...LIKELY BY MID/LATE MORNING. VFR LIKELY DURING MIDDAY
HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND COULD
CONTAIN STRONG WIND GUSTS/HAIL. COVERAGE/ORGANIZATION NOT EXPECTED
TO BE DEFINED ENOUGH TO PLACE SPECIFICS IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
SHIFT TO S THIS MORNING WITH WARM FRONT...THEN W WITH COLD FRONT
TONIGHT. GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND TUE AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT. MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM. VFR
CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
WINDS SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS TUESDAY NIGHT BECOMING WEST TO
NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS WEDNESDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THEN WEST TO NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ONCE HEAVIER RAIN EXITS AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...THE THREAT OF
GALE GUSTS WILL END. WINDS THEN SHIFT SOUTH WITH WARM FRONT FOR
TODAY...REMAINING AT SCA LEVELS. STORMS POSSIBLE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL. COLD FRONT CROSSES
TONIGHT WITH WIND SHIFT TO WEST. PERHAPS A WEAKENING OF WINDS NEAR
DAWN TUESDAY...BUT THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO SCA LEVELS DURING THE
DAY.

NO MARINE HAZARDS TUESDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY WITH WIND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES. NO MARINE HAZARDS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE POTOMAC RIVER AT
WASHINGTON DC. MAIN CONCERN IS THE AREA NEAR WASHINGTON CHANNEL AT
SW WATERFRONT...WHERE ANOMALIES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO 2 FEET...WHICH
WOULD RESULT IN MODERATE FLOODING. THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR
THE ALEXANDRIA SIDE OF THE POTOMAC HAS BEEN EXTENDED FROM 8 AM TO
NOON.

...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ESE WINDS HAVE CAUSED WATER LEVELS TO RISE TO AROUND A FOOT OR
SLIGHTLY HIGHER ABOVE ASTRO NORMS. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS
MOST LIKELY AT ANNAPOLIS...BALTIMORE AND DC/ALEXANDRIA FOR THE
MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE. FLOW BECOMES SWLY LATER TODAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT SO THE COASTAL FLOOD THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
PAST HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO CHARLOTTESVILLE TRANSMITTER IS EXPECTED TO
HAVE INTERMITTENT OUTAGES DUE TO SCHEDULED MAINTENANCE BETWEEN 9
AM AND 1 PM EDT TODAY. IN ADDITION...AUDIO QUALITY MAY BE
DEGREGADED DURING TIMES WHEN THE TRANSMITTER IS OPERATIONAL BEFORE
THE MAINTENANCE IS COMPLETED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ011-
     014.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR VAZ054.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ535-536.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ535-
     536.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ535.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADS
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...ADS/KLW
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...ADS/KLW
MARINE...ADS/KLW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KCS
EQUIPMENT...KCS



000
FXUS61 KLWX 201226
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
826 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES WILL
LIFT NORTH THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
REGION LATE MONDAY. AN UPPER LOW WILL THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WASHINGTON DC.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IN THE TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING SECTION
BELOW.

...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS MORNING...PRIMARY SFC LOW IS CENTERED OVER MI...WITH
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL VA. LLJ/UPPER JET STREAK
INDUCED MDT/HVY RAINFALL IS PIVOTING NE...WITH DRYING NOTED IN WV
IMAGERY.

A WARM FRONT LOCATED OVER CENTRAL VA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY
LIFT TO THE NORTH...LEADING TO A RELATIVE DRY BREAK INTO THE MIDDAY
HOURS. HOW THE ATMOSPHERE IS ABLE TO RECOVER WILL DETERMINE SVR WX
CHANCES LATER TODAY. MAY TAKE LLVL CLOUDS A BIT TO SCOUR OUT...THEN
QUESTION BECOMES HOW MUCH MID/HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUD PERSISTS.
MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR HIGHS IN THE 70S...ALTHOUGH READINGS WILL
SOAR IF PROLONGED SUN DEVELOPS.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH...AIDED BY TERRAIN...DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE
STORMS WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. COVERAGE IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...BUT SCATTERED-NUMEROUS
SEEMS PLAUSIBLE. CONSISTENT INDICATIONS OF AROUND 1000 J/KG INSTBY
AND 30 KT BULK SHEAR WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS. THERE MAY BE SOME DISCRETE CELLS INITIALLY...EVENTUALLY
MORPHING INTO LINE SEGMENTS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DMGG
WINDS...ALTHOUGH STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL OF LARGE HAIL TOO. WHILE HODOGRAPHS NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE...THERE IS SOME LLVL VEERING AND A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF
A TORNADO FROM ANY STRONG DISCRETE CELLS. AT THIS TIME...NO AREA
OF THE CWA IS PARTICULARLY FAVORED...ALTHOUGH PARAMETERS MAY BE
SLIGHTLY BETTER EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.

STORMS WILL EXIT EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT
TRAILING THE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH WILL CROSS OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS MAY
LINGER LONGER IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS. TEMPS DROP INTO THE 40S
WEST...BUT SLOWER ADVECTION LIMITS LOWS TO THE 50S IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY WITH
WESTERLY FLOW LOCALLY. IT WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BUT
BREEZY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WILL HELP TEMPS RISE INTO THE 60S...WITH
NEAR 70 IN THE EAST.

AN ELONGATED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TUESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE RIDGES. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S.
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ADDITIONAL UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO AID IN
PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO COULD DEVELOP IN ANY ONE PORTION OF
THE REGION. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S WHILE
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP DOWN TO THE MIDDLE 40S...WITH
EXCEPTION TO THE UPPER 30S IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
EVOLVE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 7 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. THERE
COULD BE A FEW LINGERING RAIN OR PERHAPS A SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE
HIGHER RIDGES OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT DUE TO A SLIGHT UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY...MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION ONCE AGAIN. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO PASS ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF OUR CWA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

A FEW RAIN SHOWERS COULD STILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY BUT FOR THE MOST
PART HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO TAKE CONTROL BRIEFLY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT COULD SWING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MDT/LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL EXIT FROM S TO N EARLY THIS MORNING.
VSBYS WILL IMPROVE BUT QUESTIONABLE HOW QUICKLY MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL
SCOUR OUT...LIKELY BY MID/LATE MORNING. VFR LIKELY DURING MIDDAY
HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND COULD
CONTAIN STRONG WIND GUSTS/HAIL. COVERAGE/ORGANIZATION NOT EXPECTED
TO BE DEFINED ENOUGH TO PLACE SPECIFICS IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
SHIFT TO S THIS MORNING WITH WARM FRONT...THEN W WITH COLD FRONT
TONIGHT. GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND TUE AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT. MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM. VFR
CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
WINDS SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS TUESDAY NIGHT BECOMING WEST TO
NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS WEDNESDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THEN WEST TO NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ONCE HEAVIER RAIN EXITS AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...THE THREAT OF
GALE GUSTS WILL END. WINDS THEN SHIFT SOUTH WITH WARM FRONT FOR
TODAY...REMAINING AT SCA LEVELS. STORMS POSSIBLE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL. COLD FRONT CROSSES
TONIGHT WITH WIND SHIFT TO WEST. PERHAPS A WEAKENING OF WINDS NEAR
DAWN TUESDAY...BUT THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO SCA LEVELS DURING THE
DAY.

NO MARINE HAZARDS TUESDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY WITH WIND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES. NO MARINE HAZARDS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE POTOMAC RIVER AT
WASHINGTON DC. MAIN CONCERN IS THE AREA NEAR WASHINGTON CHANNEL AT
SW WATERFRONT...WHERE ANOMALIES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO 2 FEET...WHICH
WOULD RESULT IN MODERATE FLOODING. THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR
THE ALEXANDRIA SIDE OF THE POTOMAC HAS BEEN EXTENDED FROM 8 AM TO
NOON.

...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ESE WINDS HAVE CAUSED WATER LEVELS TO RISE TO AROUND A FOOT OR
SLIGHTLY HIGHER ABOVE ASTRO NORMS. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS
MOST LIKELY AT ANNAPOLIS...BALTIMORE AND DC/ALEXANDRIA FOR THE
MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE. FLOW BECOMES SWLY LATER TODAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT SO THE COASTAL FLOOD THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
PAST HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO CHARLOTTESVILLE TRANSMITTER IS EXPECTED TO
HAVE INTERMITTENT OUTAGES DUE TO SCHEDULED MAINTENANCE BETWEEN 9
AM AND 1 PM EDT TODAY. IN ADDITION...AUDIO QUALITY MAY BE
DEGREGADED DURING TIMES WHEN THE TRANSMITTER IS OPERATIONAL BEFORE
THE MAINTENANCE IS COMPLETED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ011-
     014.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR VAZ054.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ535-536.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ535-
     536.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ535.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADS
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...ADS/KLW
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...ADS/KLW
MARINE...ADS/KLW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KCS
EQUIPMENT...KCS



000
FXUS61 KLWX 201226
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
826 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES WILL
LIFT NORTH THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
REGION LATE MONDAY. AN UPPER LOW WILL THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WASHINGTON DC.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IN THE TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING SECTION
BELOW.

...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS MORNING...PRIMARY SFC LOW IS CENTERED OVER MI...WITH
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL VA. LLJ/UPPER JET STREAK
INDUCED MDT/HVY RAINFALL IS PIVOTING NE...WITH DRYING NOTED IN WV
IMAGERY.

A WARM FRONT LOCATED OVER CENTRAL VA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY
LIFT TO THE NORTH...LEADING TO A RELATIVE DRY BREAK INTO THE MIDDAY
HOURS. HOW THE ATMOSPHERE IS ABLE TO RECOVER WILL DETERMINE SVR WX
CHANCES LATER TODAY. MAY TAKE LLVL CLOUDS A BIT TO SCOUR OUT...THEN
QUESTION BECOMES HOW MUCH MID/HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUD PERSISTS.
MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR HIGHS IN THE 70S...ALTHOUGH READINGS WILL
SOAR IF PROLONGED SUN DEVELOPS.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH...AIDED BY TERRAIN...DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE
STORMS WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. COVERAGE IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...BUT SCATTERED-NUMEROUS
SEEMS PLAUSIBLE. CONSISTENT INDICATIONS OF AROUND 1000 J/KG INSTBY
AND 30 KT BULK SHEAR WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS. THERE MAY BE SOME DISCRETE CELLS INITIALLY...EVENTUALLY
MORPHING INTO LINE SEGMENTS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DMGG
WINDS...ALTHOUGH STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL OF LARGE HAIL TOO. WHILE HODOGRAPHS NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE...THERE IS SOME LLVL VEERING AND A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF
A TORNADO FROM ANY STRONG DISCRETE CELLS. AT THIS TIME...NO AREA
OF THE CWA IS PARTICULARLY FAVORED...ALTHOUGH PARAMETERS MAY BE
SLIGHTLY BETTER EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.

STORMS WILL EXIT EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT
TRAILING THE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH WILL CROSS OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS MAY
LINGER LONGER IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS. TEMPS DROP INTO THE 40S
WEST...BUT SLOWER ADVECTION LIMITS LOWS TO THE 50S IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY WITH
WESTERLY FLOW LOCALLY. IT WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BUT
BREEZY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WILL HELP TEMPS RISE INTO THE 60S...WITH
NEAR 70 IN THE EAST.

AN ELONGATED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TUESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE RIDGES. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S.
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ADDITIONAL UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO AID IN
PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO COULD DEVELOP IN ANY ONE PORTION OF
THE REGION. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S WHILE
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP DOWN TO THE MIDDLE 40S...WITH
EXCEPTION TO THE UPPER 30S IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
EVOLVE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 7 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. THERE
COULD BE A FEW LINGERING RAIN OR PERHAPS A SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE
HIGHER RIDGES OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT DUE TO A SLIGHT UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY...MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION ONCE AGAIN. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO PASS ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF OUR CWA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

A FEW RAIN SHOWERS COULD STILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY BUT FOR THE MOST
PART HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO TAKE CONTROL BRIEFLY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT COULD SWING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MDT/LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL EXIT FROM S TO N EARLY THIS MORNING.
VSBYS WILL IMPROVE BUT QUESTIONABLE HOW QUICKLY MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL
SCOUR OUT...LIKELY BY MID/LATE MORNING. VFR LIKELY DURING MIDDAY
HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND COULD
CONTAIN STRONG WIND GUSTS/HAIL. COVERAGE/ORGANIZATION NOT EXPECTED
TO BE DEFINED ENOUGH TO PLACE SPECIFICS IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
SHIFT TO S THIS MORNING WITH WARM FRONT...THEN W WITH COLD FRONT
TONIGHT. GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND TUE AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT. MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM. VFR
CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
WINDS SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS TUESDAY NIGHT BECOMING WEST TO
NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS WEDNESDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THEN WEST TO NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ONCE HEAVIER RAIN EXITS AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...THE THREAT OF
GALE GUSTS WILL END. WINDS THEN SHIFT SOUTH WITH WARM FRONT FOR
TODAY...REMAINING AT SCA LEVELS. STORMS POSSIBLE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL. COLD FRONT CROSSES
TONIGHT WITH WIND SHIFT TO WEST. PERHAPS A WEAKENING OF WINDS NEAR
DAWN TUESDAY...BUT THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO SCA LEVELS DURING THE
DAY.

NO MARINE HAZARDS TUESDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY WITH WIND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES. NO MARINE HAZARDS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE POTOMAC RIVER AT
WASHINGTON DC. MAIN CONCERN IS THE AREA NEAR WASHINGTON CHANNEL AT
SW WATERFRONT...WHERE ANOMALIES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO 2 FEET...WHICH
WOULD RESULT IN MODERATE FLOODING. THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR
THE ALEXANDRIA SIDE OF THE POTOMAC HAS BEEN EXTENDED FROM 8 AM TO
NOON.

...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ESE WINDS HAVE CAUSED WATER LEVELS TO RISE TO AROUND A FOOT OR
SLIGHTLY HIGHER ABOVE ASTRO NORMS. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS
MOST LIKELY AT ANNAPOLIS...BALTIMORE AND DC/ALEXANDRIA FOR THE
MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE. FLOW BECOMES SWLY LATER TODAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT SO THE COASTAL FLOOD THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
PAST HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO CHARLOTTESVILLE TRANSMITTER IS EXPECTED TO
HAVE INTERMITTENT OUTAGES DUE TO SCHEDULED MAINTENANCE BETWEEN 9
AM AND 1 PM EDT TODAY. IN ADDITION...AUDIO QUALITY MAY BE
DEGREGADED DURING TIMES WHEN THE TRANSMITTER IS OPERATIONAL BEFORE
THE MAINTENANCE IS COMPLETED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ011-
     014.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR VAZ054.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ535-536.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ535-
     536.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ535.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADS
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...ADS/KLW
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...ADS/KLW
MARINE...ADS/KLW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KCS
EQUIPMENT...KCS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 201226
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
826 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES WILL
LIFT NORTH THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
REGION LATE MONDAY. AN UPPER LOW WILL THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WASHINGTON DC.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IN THE TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING SECTION
BELOW.

...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS MORNING...PRIMARY SFC LOW IS CENTERED OVER MI...WITH
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL VA. LLJ/UPPER JET STREAK
INDUCED MDT/HVY RAINFALL IS PIVOTING NE...WITH DRYING NOTED IN WV
IMAGERY.

A WARM FRONT LOCATED OVER CENTRAL VA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY
LIFT TO THE NORTH...LEADING TO A RELATIVE DRY BREAK INTO THE MIDDAY
HOURS. HOW THE ATMOSPHERE IS ABLE TO RECOVER WILL DETERMINE SVR WX
CHANCES LATER TODAY. MAY TAKE LLVL CLOUDS A BIT TO SCOUR OUT...THEN
QUESTION BECOMES HOW MUCH MID/HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUD PERSISTS.
MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR HIGHS IN THE 70S...ALTHOUGH READINGS WILL
SOAR IF PROLONGED SUN DEVELOPS.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH...AIDED BY TERRAIN...DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE
STORMS WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. COVERAGE IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...BUT SCATTERED-NUMEROUS
SEEMS PLAUSIBLE. CONSISTENT INDICATIONS OF AROUND 1000 J/KG INSTBY
AND 30 KT BULK SHEAR WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS. THERE MAY BE SOME DISCRETE CELLS INITIALLY...EVENTUALLY
MORPHING INTO LINE SEGMENTS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DMGG
WINDS...ALTHOUGH STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL OF LARGE HAIL TOO. WHILE HODOGRAPHS NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE...THERE IS SOME LLVL VEERING AND A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF
A TORNADO FROM ANY STRONG DISCRETE CELLS. AT THIS TIME...NO AREA
OF THE CWA IS PARTICULARLY FAVORED...ALTHOUGH PARAMETERS MAY BE
SLIGHTLY BETTER EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.

STORMS WILL EXIT EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT
TRAILING THE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH WILL CROSS OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS MAY
LINGER LONGER IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS. TEMPS DROP INTO THE 40S
WEST...BUT SLOWER ADVECTION LIMITS LOWS TO THE 50S IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY WITH
WESTERLY FLOW LOCALLY. IT WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BUT
BREEZY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WILL HELP TEMPS RISE INTO THE 60S...WITH
NEAR 70 IN THE EAST.

AN ELONGATED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TUESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE RIDGES. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S.
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ADDITIONAL UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO AID IN
PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO COULD DEVELOP IN ANY ONE PORTION OF
THE REGION. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S WHILE
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP DOWN TO THE MIDDLE 40S...WITH
EXCEPTION TO THE UPPER 30S IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
EVOLVE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 7 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. THERE
COULD BE A FEW LINGERING RAIN OR PERHAPS A SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE
HIGHER RIDGES OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT DUE TO A SLIGHT UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY...MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION ONCE AGAIN. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO PASS ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF OUR CWA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

A FEW RAIN SHOWERS COULD STILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY BUT FOR THE MOST
PART HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO TAKE CONTROL BRIEFLY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT COULD SWING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MDT/LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL EXIT FROM S TO N EARLY THIS MORNING.
VSBYS WILL IMPROVE BUT QUESTIONABLE HOW QUICKLY MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL
SCOUR OUT...LIKELY BY MID/LATE MORNING. VFR LIKELY DURING MIDDAY
HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND COULD
CONTAIN STRONG WIND GUSTS/HAIL. COVERAGE/ORGANIZATION NOT EXPECTED
TO BE DEFINED ENOUGH TO PLACE SPECIFICS IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
SHIFT TO S THIS MORNING WITH WARM FRONT...THEN W WITH COLD FRONT
TONIGHT. GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND TUE AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT. MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM. VFR
CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
WINDS SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS TUESDAY NIGHT BECOMING WEST TO
NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS WEDNESDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THEN WEST TO NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ONCE HEAVIER RAIN EXITS AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...THE THREAT OF
GALE GUSTS WILL END. WINDS THEN SHIFT SOUTH WITH WARM FRONT FOR
TODAY...REMAINING AT SCA LEVELS. STORMS POSSIBLE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL. COLD FRONT CROSSES
TONIGHT WITH WIND SHIFT TO WEST. PERHAPS A WEAKENING OF WINDS NEAR
DAWN TUESDAY...BUT THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO SCA LEVELS DURING THE
DAY.

NO MARINE HAZARDS TUESDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY WITH WIND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES. NO MARINE HAZARDS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE POTOMAC RIVER AT
WASHINGTON DC. MAIN CONCERN IS THE AREA NEAR WASHINGTON CHANNEL AT
SW WATERFRONT...WHERE ANOMALIES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO 2 FEET...WHICH
WOULD RESULT IN MODERATE FLOODING. THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR
THE ALEXANDRIA SIDE OF THE POTOMAC HAS BEEN EXTENDED FROM 8 AM TO
NOON.

...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ESE WINDS HAVE CAUSED WATER LEVELS TO RISE TO AROUND A FOOT OR
SLIGHTLY HIGHER ABOVE ASTRO NORMS. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS
MOST LIKELY AT ANNAPOLIS...BALTIMORE AND DC/ALEXANDRIA FOR THE
MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE. FLOW BECOMES SWLY LATER TODAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT SO THE COASTAL FLOOD THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
PAST HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO CHARLOTTESVILLE TRANSMITTER IS EXPECTED TO
HAVE INTERMITTENT OUTAGES DUE TO SCHEDULED MAINTENANCE BETWEEN 9
AM AND 1 PM EDT TODAY. IN ADDITION...AUDIO QUALITY MAY BE
DEGREGADED DURING TIMES WHEN THE TRANSMITTER IS OPERATIONAL BEFORE
THE MAINTENANCE IS COMPLETED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ011-
     014.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR VAZ054.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ535-536.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ535-
     536.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ535.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADS
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...ADS/KLW
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...ADS/KLW
MARINE...ADS/KLW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KCS
EQUIPMENT...KCS



000
FXUS61 KRNK 201151
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
751 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND BRING SHOWERS
AND SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. WE WILL THEN SETTLE
INTO A COOLER...BREEZY...AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING WITH ANOTHER FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 525 AM EDT MONDAY...

THERE ARE LINGERING HYDRO ISSUES EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWING THE
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN FROM SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND SEVERAL
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE GRAYSON HIGHLANDS AND INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA UNTIL
AROUND 9AM. THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED WITH
ADJUSTMENTS MADE ACCORDINGLY.

THE NEXT CONCERN IS THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MESO MODELS DISSIPATE THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
CURRENTLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITH REDEVELOPMENT FIRING
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY FRONT HE BLUE RIDGE EAST. EARLY MORNING SATELLITE PICS
SHOW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AND WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 12C WE
SHOULD SEE SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE WELL INTO THE 70S TODAY. THIS
WILL GENERATE CAPE VALUES OF 1000J/KG TO 1500J/KG WHICH WILL BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT VIGOROUS CONVECTION. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL GIVE
US 0/6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40KTS TO 50KTS WITH A SOMEWHAT
LINEAR HODOGRAPH. THUS THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
PRESENT FOR A SEVERE THREAT...AND THE SPC SLIGHT RISK LOOKS TO BE
ON TARGET. WILL BE ANTICIPATING STORM CLUSTERS EVOLVING INTO
LINEAR ELEMENTS TO PRODUCE A WIND THREAT...AND THE MORE VIGOROUS
CELLS SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE TO SUPPORT
LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL AS WELL. WHILE SWATS REMAIN HIGH BELIEVE ANY
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LOCALIZED AND FURTHER EAST WHICH SHOULD HELP
AVOID AGGRAVATING THE HYDRO SITUATION. ENOUGH INGREDIENTS FOR A BUSY
AFTERNOON ON RADAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 525 AM EDT MONDAY...

BEHIND THE FRONT WE START TO SETTLE INTO A COOLER...BREEZY...AND
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN AS A BROAD CLOSED LOW TAKES UP
RESIDENCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFF TO OUR
EAST EARLY TONIGHT AND TAKE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
IT...LEAVING SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR WEST FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL DISSIPATE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY. COULD SEE THE
OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY OF COOKING UP SOME SHOWERS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BUT BELIEVE THE POPS ARE TOO SMALL TO MENTION SO WILL
KEEP THINGS UNDER 15 PERCENT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL ROTATE THROUGH
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL HAVE SOME SLIGHT INSTABILITY AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES TO WARRANT A MENTION OF THUNDER. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BRING WHAT LOOKS
TO BE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...

BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE AND DOMINATES THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...GRADUALLY SHIFTING FURTHER ESE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
THIS KEEPS THE REGION IN AN UNSTABLE/UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW WITH
NUMEROUS EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES. MODELS VARY CONSIDERABLY AS TO THE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE DISTURBANCES...BUT ENOUGH AGREEMENT
THAT POPS CANNOT BE DROPPED REALLY AT ANY TIME THE OVERALL TREND
IS TO PUSH THE BETTER MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES AND 850MB TEMPS DROP BELOW 0C IN THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES. THE ENTIRE PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH LOW CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WITH THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT THE
DRIEST. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...NO REAL CLEAR CONCERN AT THIS POINT FOR FROST/FREEZE
BECAUSE OF CYCLONIC FLOW AND CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 750 AM EDT MONDAY...

CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL
MOVE EAST INTO VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA THIS MORNING.
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS THIS PRECIPITATION WILL REACH KBLF
BEFORE 16Z.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL BRING BREEZY AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO THE AREA INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...SO WIND GUSTS WITH ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AT KLYH AND KDAN MAY APPROACH 50 KNOTS. DO NOT
EXPECT TO HAVE ANYTHING THAT INTENSE THAT FAR EAST UNTIL AFTER
18Z.

IN THE EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT...MODELS WERE INDICATING SOME MVFR
CEILINGS IN THE MOUNTAINS. ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE HOW LOW
CEILINGS WILL GET ONCE THE SHOWERS CLEAR OUT AFTER SUNSET.

EXTENDED AVIATION...

VFR RETURNS LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS.

THEN THE NEXT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE
IN THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS/RCS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 201151
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
751 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND BRING SHOWERS
AND SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. WE WILL THEN SETTLE
INTO A COOLER...BREEZY...AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING WITH ANOTHER FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 525 AM EDT MONDAY...

THERE ARE LINGERING HYDRO ISSUES EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWING THE
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN FROM SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND SEVERAL
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE GRAYSON HIGHLANDS AND INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA UNTIL
AROUND 9AM. THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED WITH
ADJUSTMENTS MADE ACCORDINGLY.

THE NEXT CONCERN IS THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MESO MODELS DISSIPATE THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
CURRENTLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITH REDEVELOPMENT FIRING
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY FRONT HE BLUE RIDGE EAST. EARLY MORNING SATELLITE PICS
SHOW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AND WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 12C WE
SHOULD SEE SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE WELL INTO THE 70S TODAY. THIS
WILL GENERATE CAPE VALUES OF 1000J/KG TO 1500J/KG WHICH WILL BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT VIGOROUS CONVECTION. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL GIVE
US 0/6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40KTS TO 50KTS WITH A SOMEWHAT
LINEAR HODOGRAPH. THUS THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
PRESENT FOR A SEVERE THREAT...AND THE SPC SLIGHT RISK LOOKS TO BE
ON TARGET. WILL BE ANTICIPATING STORM CLUSTERS EVOLVING INTO
LINEAR ELEMENTS TO PRODUCE A WIND THREAT...AND THE MORE VIGOROUS
CELLS SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE TO SUPPORT
LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL AS WELL. WHILE SWATS REMAIN HIGH BELIEVE ANY
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LOCALIZED AND FURTHER EAST WHICH SHOULD HELP
AVOID AGGRAVATING THE HYDRO SITUATION. ENOUGH INGREDIENTS FOR A BUSY
AFTERNOON ON RADAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 525 AM EDT MONDAY...

BEHIND THE FRONT WE START TO SETTLE INTO A COOLER...BREEZY...AND
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN AS A BROAD CLOSED LOW TAKES UP
RESIDENCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFF TO OUR
EAST EARLY TONIGHT AND TAKE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
IT...LEAVING SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR WEST FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL DISSIPATE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY. COULD SEE THE
OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY OF COOKING UP SOME SHOWERS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BUT BELIEVE THE POPS ARE TOO SMALL TO MENTION SO WILL
KEEP THINGS UNDER 15 PERCENT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL ROTATE THROUGH
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL HAVE SOME SLIGHT INSTABILITY AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES TO WARRANT A MENTION OF THUNDER. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BRING WHAT LOOKS
TO BE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...

BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE AND DOMINATES THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...GRADUALLY SHIFTING FURTHER ESE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
THIS KEEPS THE REGION IN AN UNSTABLE/UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW WITH
NUMEROUS EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES. MODELS VARY CONSIDERABLY AS TO THE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE DISTURBANCES...BUT ENOUGH AGREEMENT
THAT POPS CANNOT BE DROPPED REALLY AT ANY TIME THE OVERALL TREND
IS TO PUSH THE BETTER MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES AND 850MB TEMPS DROP BELOW 0C IN THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES. THE ENTIRE PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH LOW CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WITH THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT THE
DRIEST. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...NO REAL CLEAR CONCERN AT THIS POINT FOR FROST/FREEZE
BECAUSE OF CYCLONIC FLOW AND CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 750 AM EDT MONDAY...

CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL
MOVE EAST INTO VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA THIS MORNING.
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS THIS PRECIPITATION WILL REACH KBLF
BEFORE 16Z.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL BRING BREEZY AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO THE AREA INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...SO WIND GUSTS WITH ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AT KLYH AND KDAN MAY APPROACH 50 KNOTS. DO NOT
EXPECT TO HAVE ANYTHING THAT INTENSE THAT FAR EAST UNTIL AFTER
18Z.

IN THE EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT...MODELS WERE INDICATING SOME MVFR
CEILINGS IN THE MOUNTAINS. ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE HOW LOW
CEILINGS WILL GET ONCE THE SHOWERS CLEAR OUT AFTER SUNSET.

EXTENDED AVIATION...

VFR RETURNS LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS.

THEN THE NEXT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE
IN THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS/RCS



000
FXUS61 KRNK 201151
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
751 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND BRING SHOWERS
AND SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. WE WILL THEN SETTLE
INTO A COOLER...BREEZY...AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING WITH ANOTHER FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 525 AM EDT MONDAY...

THERE ARE LINGERING HYDRO ISSUES EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWING THE
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN FROM SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND SEVERAL
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE GRAYSON HIGHLANDS AND INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA UNTIL
AROUND 9AM. THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED WITH
ADJUSTMENTS MADE ACCORDINGLY.

THE NEXT CONCERN IS THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MESO MODELS DISSIPATE THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
CURRENTLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITH REDEVELOPMENT FIRING
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY FRONT HE BLUE RIDGE EAST. EARLY MORNING SATELLITE PICS
SHOW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AND WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 12C WE
SHOULD SEE SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE WELL INTO THE 70S TODAY. THIS
WILL GENERATE CAPE VALUES OF 1000J/KG TO 1500J/KG WHICH WILL BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT VIGOROUS CONVECTION. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL GIVE
US 0/6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40KTS TO 50KTS WITH A SOMEWHAT
LINEAR HODOGRAPH. THUS THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
PRESENT FOR A SEVERE THREAT...AND THE SPC SLIGHT RISK LOOKS TO BE
ON TARGET. WILL BE ANTICIPATING STORM CLUSTERS EVOLVING INTO
LINEAR ELEMENTS TO PRODUCE A WIND THREAT...AND THE MORE VIGOROUS
CELLS SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE TO SUPPORT
LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL AS WELL. WHILE SWATS REMAIN HIGH BELIEVE ANY
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LOCALIZED AND FURTHER EAST WHICH SHOULD HELP
AVOID AGGRAVATING THE HYDRO SITUATION. ENOUGH INGREDIENTS FOR A BUSY
AFTERNOON ON RADAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 525 AM EDT MONDAY...

BEHIND THE FRONT WE START TO SETTLE INTO A COOLER...BREEZY...AND
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN AS A BROAD CLOSED LOW TAKES UP
RESIDENCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFF TO OUR
EAST EARLY TONIGHT AND TAKE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
IT...LEAVING SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR WEST FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL DISSIPATE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY. COULD SEE THE
OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY OF COOKING UP SOME SHOWERS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BUT BELIEVE THE POPS ARE TOO SMALL TO MENTION SO WILL
KEEP THINGS UNDER 15 PERCENT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL ROTATE THROUGH
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL HAVE SOME SLIGHT INSTABILITY AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES TO WARRANT A MENTION OF THUNDER. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BRING WHAT LOOKS
TO BE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...

BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE AND DOMINATES THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...GRADUALLY SHIFTING FURTHER ESE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
THIS KEEPS THE REGION IN AN UNSTABLE/UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW WITH
NUMEROUS EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES. MODELS VARY CONSIDERABLY AS TO THE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE DISTURBANCES...BUT ENOUGH AGREEMENT
THAT POPS CANNOT BE DROPPED REALLY AT ANY TIME THE OVERALL TREND
IS TO PUSH THE BETTER MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES AND 850MB TEMPS DROP BELOW 0C IN THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES. THE ENTIRE PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH LOW CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WITH THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT THE
DRIEST. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...NO REAL CLEAR CONCERN AT THIS POINT FOR FROST/FREEZE
BECAUSE OF CYCLONIC FLOW AND CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 750 AM EDT MONDAY...

CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL
MOVE EAST INTO VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA THIS MORNING.
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS THIS PRECIPITATION WILL REACH KBLF
BEFORE 16Z.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL BRING BREEZY AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO THE AREA INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...SO WIND GUSTS WITH ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AT KLYH AND KDAN MAY APPROACH 50 KNOTS. DO NOT
EXPECT TO HAVE ANYTHING THAT INTENSE THAT FAR EAST UNTIL AFTER
18Z.

IN THE EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT...MODELS WERE INDICATING SOME MVFR
CEILINGS IN THE MOUNTAINS. ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE HOW LOW
CEILINGS WILL GET ONCE THE SHOWERS CLEAR OUT AFTER SUNSET.

EXTENDED AVIATION...

VFR RETURNS LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS.

THEN THE NEXT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE
IN THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS/RCS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 201151
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
751 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND BRING SHOWERS
AND SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. WE WILL THEN SETTLE
INTO A COOLER...BREEZY...AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING WITH ANOTHER FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 525 AM EDT MONDAY...

THERE ARE LINGERING HYDRO ISSUES EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWING THE
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN FROM SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND SEVERAL
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE GRAYSON HIGHLANDS AND INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA UNTIL
AROUND 9AM. THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED WITH
ADJUSTMENTS MADE ACCORDINGLY.

THE NEXT CONCERN IS THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MESO MODELS DISSIPATE THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
CURRENTLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITH REDEVELOPMENT FIRING
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY FRONT HE BLUE RIDGE EAST. EARLY MORNING SATELLITE PICS
SHOW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AND WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 12C WE
SHOULD SEE SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE WELL INTO THE 70S TODAY. THIS
WILL GENERATE CAPE VALUES OF 1000J/KG TO 1500J/KG WHICH WILL BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT VIGOROUS CONVECTION. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL GIVE
US 0/6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40KTS TO 50KTS WITH A SOMEWHAT
LINEAR HODOGRAPH. THUS THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
PRESENT FOR A SEVERE THREAT...AND THE SPC SLIGHT RISK LOOKS TO BE
ON TARGET. WILL BE ANTICIPATING STORM CLUSTERS EVOLVING INTO
LINEAR ELEMENTS TO PRODUCE A WIND THREAT...AND THE MORE VIGOROUS
CELLS SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE TO SUPPORT
LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL AS WELL. WHILE SWATS REMAIN HIGH BELIEVE ANY
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LOCALIZED AND FURTHER EAST WHICH SHOULD HELP
AVOID AGGRAVATING THE HYDRO SITUATION. ENOUGH INGREDIENTS FOR A BUSY
AFTERNOON ON RADAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 525 AM EDT MONDAY...

BEHIND THE FRONT WE START TO SETTLE INTO A COOLER...BREEZY...AND
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN AS A BROAD CLOSED LOW TAKES UP
RESIDENCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFF TO OUR
EAST EARLY TONIGHT AND TAKE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
IT...LEAVING SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR WEST FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL DISSIPATE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY. COULD SEE THE
OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY OF COOKING UP SOME SHOWERS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BUT BELIEVE THE POPS ARE TOO SMALL TO MENTION SO WILL
KEEP THINGS UNDER 15 PERCENT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL ROTATE THROUGH
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL HAVE SOME SLIGHT INSTABILITY AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES TO WARRANT A MENTION OF THUNDER. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BRING WHAT LOOKS
TO BE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...

BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE AND DOMINATES THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...GRADUALLY SHIFTING FURTHER ESE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
THIS KEEPS THE REGION IN AN UNSTABLE/UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW WITH
NUMEROUS EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES. MODELS VARY CONSIDERABLY AS TO THE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE DISTURBANCES...BUT ENOUGH AGREEMENT
THAT POPS CANNOT BE DROPPED REALLY AT ANY TIME THE OVERALL TREND
IS TO PUSH THE BETTER MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES AND 850MB TEMPS DROP BELOW 0C IN THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES. THE ENTIRE PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH LOW CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WITH THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT THE
DRIEST. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...NO REAL CLEAR CONCERN AT THIS POINT FOR FROST/FREEZE
BECAUSE OF CYCLONIC FLOW AND CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 750 AM EDT MONDAY...

CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL
MOVE EAST INTO VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA THIS MORNING.
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS THIS PRECIPITATION WILL REACH KBLF
BEFORE 16Z.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL BRING BREEZY AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO THE AREA INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...SO WIND GUSTS WITH ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AT KLYH AND KDAN MAY APPROACH 50 KNOTS. DO NOT
EXPECT TO HAVE ANYTHING THAT INTENSE THAT FAR EAST UNTIL AFTER
18Z.

IN THE EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT...MODELS WERE INDICATING SOME MVFR
CEILINGS IN THE MOUNTAINS. ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE HOW LOW
CEILINGS WILL GET ONCE THE SHOWERS CLEAR OUT AFTER SUNSET.

EXTENDED AVIATION...

VFR RETURNS LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS.

THEN THE NEXT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE
IN THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS/RCS



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201110
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
710 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. A COLD
FRONT THEN CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NORTH OF RICHMOND THIS MORNING AND SHOULD
CLEAR OUR NORTHERN FA IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. LAST BIT OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS MOVING OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING. MOST
LOCATIONS ENDED UP BETWEEN 0.50-2.00" OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION THROUGH AT LEAST THE MID-
AFTERNOON HOURS. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND GOOD MIXING (BREEZY THIS
AFTN) WILL BOOST MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOW/MID 70S AT THE COAST...AND
UPR 70S TO LOW/MID 80S ELSEWHERE. CONCERN THEN SHIFTS TO A TROUGH
ALOFT/COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY LATE THIS AFTN/EVE.
WARM TEMPS AND AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHWRS AND TSTMS. SPC CONTINUES TO HAVE
OUR FA OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN/EVE FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX IS CERTAINLY THERE GIVEN ML CAPE VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE...STEEP LAPSE
RATES...AND A MODEST SHEAR PROFILE. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
POSSIBLE STRONG/ISOLD SVR STORMS IN THE HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FA TONIGHT WITH CHC POPS...THEN
DRYING/COOLER WESTERLY FLOW TAKING OVR INTO TUE. PARTLY/MOSTLY
SUNNY TUE WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO NR 70 AT THE
COAST...AND LOW/MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

HIGH PRES MOVES TO NR THE SE CONUS COAST BY WED...PROVIDING WSW
FLOW AND CONTINUING MILD WX. A WEAK TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE WNW...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS (ISOLD TSTMS). LOW TEMPS TUE NGT
MID 40S WEST AND NORTH TO LOW 50S SE. HIGH TEMPS WED IN THE
LOW/MID 70S...EXCEPT 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS UPPER
CLOSED LOW REMAINS IN VIC OF THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD...FAST MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATE
WEDS NIGHT-EARLY THURS MORNING. GFS CONTINUES TO REMAIN ON THE
SLOWER SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE WRT FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH THE ECMWF
QUICKER. BASED ON WLY FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BACK OVER THE
MIDWEST...OPTED TO REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDS NIGHT OVER
THE NRN AND NERN ZONES AND THEN THURS SOUTH AND EAST OF
RICHMOND...TRENDING SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE SLOWER GFS. HIGHS THURS
AROUND NORMAL...LOW-MID 60S. THEREAFTER...COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SWD FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE MIDWEST...EXTENDING INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRI. HIGHS FRI GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S NE TO
MID 60S SE UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND NWLY WINDS. SRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO LIFT INTO THE MIDWEST FRI NIGHT-SAT WITH
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW FORECAST TO PROGRESS EWD ALONG A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF STATES SAT. MOISTURE RETURNS SAT TO GO ALONG
WITH OVERRUNNING AND WEAK PERTURBATIONS ALOFT. INCREASED POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE N TO CHANCE S. HIGHS SAT GENERALLY AROUND 60 ACROSS
THE REGION. SFC LOW MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SAT NIGHT...WITH
ANY REMAINING PRECIP EXPECTED ACROSS THE SE LOCAL AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS SUN...BUT COOL CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S NE TO LOW 60S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FRONTAL RAINBAND IS MOVING OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS
ARE IMPROVING AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. CLOUD
COVER ACTUALLY SCATTERING OUT BY THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A
GUSTY SW WIND. A SECONDARY IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING A CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. ANY
TSTMS COULD CONTAIN STRONG WIND GUSTS. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES OFF
THE COAST LATER TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION TUESDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE IS LIFTING NNE OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS
COMBINATION IS PRODUCING SOLID SCA CONDITIONS IN SE FLOW WITH WIND
SPEEDS AVERAGING 20-25KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. ADDITIONALLY...SEAS
HAVE RISEN TO 5-8FT...AND WILL LIKELY REACH 6-9FT EARLY
TODAY...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PRESENTLY CROSSING THE AREA AND SHOULD MOVE
OFFSHORE BY 12Z (15Z FARTHER NE). EXPECT THE WIND TO BECOME
SOUTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SPEEDS RELAXING TO 10-15KT.
INHERITED SCA FLAGS REMAIN AS IS. HOWEVER...THE RIVERS COULD
POTENTIALLY END EARLIER THAN THE CURRENT 10 AM TIME. THIS WILL BE
RECONSIDERED AT THE 11Z/7 AM UPDATE. OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE W THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND MOVES ACROSS THE
COAST LATE TONIGHT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER
SHOWERS/TSTMS...WHICH WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING STRONG
WIND GUSTS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AVG QPF 0.75-2.00"...LOCALLY UP TO 2.50" OVR MOST OF THE RIVER
BASINS WILL RESULT IN RIVER LVLS TO PSBLY RISE TO 1/2-NR FULL
BANKFULL TUE INTO WED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WILL HELP MAINTAIN ~1.0 FT
ANOMALIES IN THE MIDDLE BAY THROUGH TONIGHT. TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES OFFSHORE. NO
STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME...BUT BISHOPS HEAD WILL
COME CLOSE TO THEIR 3.25FT MINOR THRESHOLD.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201101
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
701 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. A COLD
FRONT THEN CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NORTH OF RICHMOND THIS MORNING AND SHOULD
CLEAR OUR NORTHERN FA IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. LAST BIT OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS MOVING OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING. MOST
LOCATIONS ENDED UP BETWEEN 0.50-2.00" OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION THROUGH AT LEAST THE MID-
AFTERNOON HOURS. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND GOOD MIXING (BREEZY THIS
AFTN) WILL BOOST MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOW/MID 70S AT THE COAST...AND
UPR 70S TO LOW/MID 80S ELSEWHERE. CONCERN THEN SHIFTS TO A TROUGH
ALOFT/COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY LATE THIS AFTN/EVE.
WARM TEMPS AND AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHWRS AND TSTMS. SPC CONTINUES TO HAVE
OUR FA OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN/EVE FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX IS CERTAINLY THERE GIVEN ML CAPE VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE...STEEP LAPSE
RATES...AND A MODEST SHEAR PROFILE. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
POSSIBLE STRONG/ISOLD SVR STORMS IN THE HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FA TONIGHT WITH CHC POPS...THEN
DRYING/COOLER WESTERLY FLOW TAKING OVR INTO TUE. PARTLY/MOSTLY
SUNNY TUE WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO NR 70 AT THE
COAST...AND LOW/MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

HIGH PRES MOVES TO NR THE SE CONUS COAST BY WED...PROVIDING WSW
FLOW AND CONTINUING MILD WX. A WEAK TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE WNW...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS (ISOLD TSTMS). LOW TEMPS TUE NGT
MID 40S WEST AND NORTH TO LOW 50S SE. HIGH TEMPS WED IN THE
LOW/MID 70S...EXCEPT 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS UPPER
CLOSED LOW REMAINS IN VIC OF THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD...FAST MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATE
WEDS NIGHT-EARLY THURS MORNING. GFS CONTINUES TO REMAIN ON THE
SLOWER SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE WRT FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH THE ECMWF
QUICKER. BASED ON WLY FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BACK OVER THE
MIDWEST...OPTED TO REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDS NIGHT OVER
THE NRN AND NERN ZONES AND THEN THURS SOUTH AND EAST OF
RICHMOND...TRENDING SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE SLOWER GFS. HIGHS THURS
AROUND NORMAL...LOW-MID 60S. THEREAFTER...COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SWD FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE MIDWEST...EXTENDING INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRI. HIGHS FRI GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S NE TO
MID 60S SE UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND NWLY WINDS. SRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO LIFT INTO THE MIDWEST FRI NIGHT-SAT WITH
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW FORECAST TO PROGRESS EWD ALONG A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF STATES SAT. MOISTURE RETURNS SAT TO GO ALONG
WITH OVERRUNNING AND WEAK PERTURBATIONS ALOFT. INCREASED POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE N TO CHANCE S. HIGHS SAT GENERALLY AROUND 60 ACROSS
THE REGION. SFC LOW MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SAT NIGHT...WITH
ANY REMAINING PRECIP EXPECTED ACROSS THE SE LOCAL AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS SUN...BUT COOL CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S NE TO LOW 60S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS LIFTING NNE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS OF
06Z...WITH A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE PIEDMONT. A BAND OF
RAIN IS TRACKING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH EVEN A LINE OF CONVECTION OVER E-CENTRAL NC. CIGS
HAVE BEEN VARIABLE UP TO THIS TIME...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
AT IFR BETWEEN 07-10Z...WITH A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM SW-NE
BETWEEN 10-13Z. VSBY HAS BEEN VARIABLE AS WELL AND HAS LARGELY
BEEN IMPACTED BY THE INTENSITY OF THE RAIN. EXPECT VSBY TO AVERAGE
3-5SM...WITH 1-2SM IN HEAVIER RAIN AND ANY TSTMS. A SE WIND WILL
AVERAGE 15-20KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25KT AS THE FRONTAL RAIN BAND
PASSES THROUGH...AND THEN BECOME S AND DIMINISH TO 10-15KT THIS
MORNING. A MENTION OF LLWS HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AT SBY/PHF/ORF.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING CLOUD COVER ACTUALLY
SCATTERING OUT BY THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A GUSTY SW WIND. A
SECONDARY IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BRINGING A CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. ANY TSTMS COULD CONTAIN
STRONG WIND GUSTS. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST LATER
TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE IS LIFTING NNE OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS
COMBINATION IS PRODUCING SOLID SCA CONDITIONS IN SE FLOW WITH WIND
SPEEDS AVERAGING 20-25KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. ADDITIONALLY...SEAS
HAVE RISEN TO 5-8FT...AND WILL LIKELY REACH 6-9FT EARLY
TODAY...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PRESENTLY CROSSING THE AREA AND SHOULD MOVE
OFFSHORE BY 12Z (15Z FARTHER NE). EXPECT THE WIND TO BECOME
SOUTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SPEEDS RELAXING TO 10-15KT.
INHERITED SCA FLAGS REMAIN AS IS. HOWEVER...THE RIVERS COULD
POTENTIALLY END EARLIER THAN THE CURRENT 10 AM TIME. THIS WILL BE
RECONSIDERED AT THE 11Z/7 AM UPDATE. OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE W THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND MOVES ACROSS THE
COAST LATE TONIGHT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER
SHOWERS/TSTMS...WHICH WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING STRONG
WIND GUSTS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AVG QPF 0.75-2.00"...LOCALLY UP TO 2.50" OVR MOST OF THE RIVER
BASINS WILL RESULT IN RIVER LVLS TO PSBLY RISE TO 1/2-NR FULL
BANKFULL TUE INTO WED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW TODAY FOLLOWED BY MODEST SE FLOW TONIGHT
WILL ALLOW TIDAL ANOMALIES TO BUILD TO ~1.0FT ABOVE NORMAL LATER
TONIGHT PRIMARILY IN THE MIDDLE BAY AND ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
OF THE MD/VA ERN SHORE. SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING
WILL HELP MAINTAIN ~1.0 FT ANOMALIES IN THE MIDDLE BAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY AS THE
FLOW BECOMES OFFSHORE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201101
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
701 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. A COLD
FRONT THEN CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NORTH OF RICHMOND THIS MORNING AND SHOULD
CLEAR OUR NORTHERN FA IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. LAST BIT OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS MOVING OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING. MOST
LOCATIONS ENDED UP BETWEEN 0.50-2.00" OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION THROUGH AT LEAST THE MID-
AFTERNOON HOURS. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND GOOD MIXING (BREEZY THIS
AFTN) WILL BOOST MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOW/MID 70S AT THE COAST...AND
UPR 70S TO LOW/MID 80S ELSEWHERE. CONCERN THEN SHIFTS TO A TROUGH
ALOFT/COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY LATE THIS AFTN/EVE.
WARM TEMPS AND AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHWRS AND TSTMS. SPC CONTINUES TO HAVE
OUR FA OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN/EVE FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX IS CERTAINLY THERE GIVEN ML CAPE VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE...STEEP LAPSE
RATES...AND A MODEST SHEAR PROFILE. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
POSSIBLE STRONG/ISOLD SVR STORMS IN THE HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FA TONIGHT WITH CHC POPS...THEN
DRYING/COOLER WESTERLY FLOW TAKING OVR INTO TUE. PARTLY/MOSTLY
SUNNY TUE WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO NR 70 AT THE
COAST...AND LOW/MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

HIGH PRES MOVES TO NR THE SE CONUS COAST BY WED...PROVIDING WSW
FLOW AND CONTINUING MILD WX. A WEAK TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE WNW...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS (ISOLD TSTMS). LOW TEMPS TUE NGT
MID 40S WEST AND NORTH TO LOW 50S SE. HIGH TEMPS WED IN THE
LOW/MID 70S...EXCEPT 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS UPPER
CLOSED LOW REMAINS IN VIC OF THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD...FAST MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATE
WEDS NIGHT-EARLY THURS MORNING. GFS CONTINUES TO REMAIN ON THE
SLOWER SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE WRT FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH THE ECMWF
QUICKER. BASED ON WLY FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BACK OVER THE
MIDWEST...OPTED TO REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDS NIGHT OVER
THE NRN AND NERN ZONES AND THEN THURS SOUTH AND EAST OF
RICHMOND...TRENDING SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE SLOWER GFS. HIGHS THURS
AROUND NORMAL...LOW-MID 60S. THEREAFTER...COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SWD FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE MIDWEST...EXTENDING INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRI. HIGHS FRI GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S NE TO
MID 60S SE UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND NWLY WINDS. SRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO LIFT INTO THE MIDWEST FRI NIGHT-SAT WITH
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW FORECAST TO PROGRESS EWD ALONG A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF STATES SAT. MOISTURE RETURNS SAT TO GO ALONG
WITH OVERRUNNING AND WEAK PERTURBATIONS ALOFT. INCREASED POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE N TO CHANCE S. HIGHS SAT GENERALLY AROUND 60 ACROSS
THE REGION. SFC LOW MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SAT NIGHT...WITH
ANY REMAINING PRECIP EXPECTED ACROSS THE SE LOCAL AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS SUN...BUT COOL CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S NE TO LOW 60S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS LIFTING NNE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS OF
06Z...WITH A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE PIEDMONT. A BAND OF
RAIN IS TRACKING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH EVEN A LINE OF CONVECTION OVER E-CENTRAL NC. CIGS
HAVE BEEN VARIABLE UP TO THIS TIME...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
AT IFR BETWEEN 07-10Z...WITH A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM SW-NE
BETWEEN 10-13Z. VSBY HAS BEEN VARIABLE AS WELL AND HAS LARGELY
BEEN IMPACTED BY THE INTENSITY OF THE RAIN. EXPECT VSBY TO AVERAGE
3-5SM...WITH 1-2SM IN HEAVIER RAIN AND ANY TSTMS. A SE WIND WILL
AVERAGE 15-20KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25KT AS THE FRONTAL RAIN BAND
PASSES THROUGH...AND THEN BECOME S AND DIMINISH TO 10-15KT THIS
MORNING. A MENTION OF LLWS HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AT SBY/PHF/ORF.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING CLOUD COVER ACTUALLY
SCATTERING OUT BY THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A GUSTY SW WIND. A
SECONDARY IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BRINGING A CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. ANY TSTMS COULD CONTAIN
STRONG WIND GUSTS. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST LATER
TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE IS LIFTING NNE OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS
COMBINATION IS PRODUCING SOLID SCA CONDITIONS IN SE FLOW WITH WIND
SPEEDS AVERAGING 20-25KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. ADDITIONALLY...SEAS
HAVE RISEN TO 5-8FT...AND WILL LIKELY REACH 6-9FT EARLY
TODAY...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PRESENTLY CROSSING THE AREA AND SHOULD MOVE
OFFSHORE BY 12Z (15Z FARTHER NE). EXPECT THE WIND TO BECOME
SOUTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SPEEDS RELAXING TO 10-15KT.
INHERITED SCA FLAGS REMAIN AS IS. HOWEVER...THE RIVERS COULD
POTENTIALLY END EARLIER THAN THE CURRENT 10 AM TIME. THIS WILL BE
RECONSIDERED AT THE 11Z/7 AM UPDATE. OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE W THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND MOVES ACROSS THE
COAST LATE TONIGHT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER
SHOWERS/TSTMS...WHICH WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING STRONG
WIND GUSTS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AVG QPF 0.75-2.00"...LOCALLY UP TO 2.50" OVR MOST OF THE RIVER
BASINS WILL RESULT IN RIVER LVLS TO PSBLY RISE TO 1/2-NR FULL
BANKFULL TUE INTO WED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW TODAY FOLLOWED BY MODEST SE FLOW TONIGHT
WILL ALLOW TIDAL ANOMALIES TO BUILD TO ~1.0FT ABOVE NORMAL LATER
TONIGHT PRIMARILY IN THE MIDDLE BAY AND ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
OF THE MD/VA ERN SHORE. SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING
WILL HELP MAINTAIN ~1.0 FT ANOMALIES IN THE MIDDLE BAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY AS THE
FLOW BECOMES OFFSHORE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201101
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
701 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. A COLD
FRONT THEN CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NORTH OF RICHMOND THIS MORNING AND SHOULD
CLEAR OUR NORTHERN FA IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. LAST BIT OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS MOVING OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING. MOST
LOCATIONS ENDED UP BETWEEN 0.50-2.00" OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION THROUGH AT LEAST THE MID-
AFTERNOON HOURS. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND GOOD MIXING (BREEZY THIS
AFTN) WILL BOOST MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOW/MID 70S AT THE COAST...AND
UPR 70S TO LOW/MID 80S ELSEWHERE. CONCERN THEN SHIFTS TO A TROUGH
ALOFT/COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY LATE THIS AFTN/EVE.
WARM TEMPS AND AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHWRS AND TSTMS. SPC CONTINUES TO HAVE
OUR FA OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN/EVE FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX IS CERTAINLY THERE GIVEN ML CAPE VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE...STEEP LAPSE
RATES...AND A MODEST SHEAR PROFILE. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
POSSIBLE STRONG/ISOLD SVR STORMS IN THE HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FA TONIGHT WITH CHC POPS...THEN
DRYING/COOLER WESTERLY FLOW TAKING OVR INTO TUE. PARTLY/MOSTLY
SUNNY TUE WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO NR 70 AT THE
COAST...AND LOW/MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

HIGH PRES MOVES TO NR THE SE CONUS COAST BY WED...PROVIDING WSW
FLOW AND CONTINUING MILD WX. A WEAK TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE WNW...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS (ISOLD TSTMS). LOW TEMPS TUE NGT
MID 40S WEST AND NORTH TO LOW 50S SE. HIGH TEMPS WED IN THE
LOW/MID 70S...EXCEPT 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS UPPER
CLOSED LOW REMAINS IN VIC OF THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD...FAST MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATE
WEDS NIGHT-EARLY THURS MORNING. GFS CONTINUES TO REMAIN ON THE
SLOWER SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE WRT FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH THE ECMWF
QUICKER. BASED ON WLY FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BACK OVER THE
MIDWEST...OPTED TO REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDS NIGHT OVER
THE NRN AND NERN ZONES AND THEN THURS SOUTH AND EAST OF
RICHMOND...TRENDING SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE SLOWER GFS. HIGHS THURS
AROUND NORMAL...LOW-MID 60S. THEREAFTER...COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SWD FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE MIDWEST...EXTENDING INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRI. HIGHS FRI GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S NE TO
MID 60S SE UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND NWLY WINDS. SRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO LIFT INTO THE MIDWEST FRI NIGHT-SAT WITH
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW FORECAST TO PROGRESS EWD ALONG A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF STATES SAT. MOISTURE RETURNS SAT TO GO ALONG
WITH OVERRUNNING AND WEAK PERTURBATIONS ALOFT. INCREASED POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE N TO CHANCE S. HIGHS SAT GENERALLY AROUND 60 ACROSS
THE REGION. SFC LOW MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SAT NIGHT...WITH
ANY REMAINING PRECIP EXPECTED ACROSS THE SE LOCAL AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS SUN...BUT COOL CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S NE TO LOW 60S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS LIFTING NNE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS OF
06Z...WITH A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE PIEDMONT. A BAND OF
RAIN IS TRACKING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH EVEN A LINE OF CONVECTION OVER E-CENTRAL NC. CIGS
HAVE BEEN VARIABLE UP TO THIS TIME...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
AT IFR BETWEEN 07-10Z...WITH A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM SW-NE
BETWEEN 10-13Z. VSBY HAS BEEN VARIABLE AS WELL AND HAS LARGELY
BEEN IMPACTED BY THE INTENSITY OF THE RAIN. EXPECT VSBY TO AVERAGE
3-5SM...WITH 1-2SM IN HEAVIER RAIN AND ANY TSTMS. A SE WIND WILL
AVERAGE 15-20KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25KT AS THE FRONTAL RAIN BAND
PASSES THROUGH...AND THEN BECOME S AND DIMINISH TO 10-15KT THIS
MORNING. A MENTION OF LLWS HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AT SBY/PHF/ORF.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING CLOUD COVER ACTUALLY
SCATTERING OUT BY THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A GUSTY SW WIND. A
SECONDARY IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BRINGING A CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. ANY TSTMS COULD CONTAIN
STRONG WIND GUSTS. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST LATER
TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE IS LIFTING NNE OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS
COMBINATION IS PRODUCING SOLID SCA CONDITIONS IN SE FLOW WITH WIND
SPEEDS AVERAGING 20-25KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. ADDITIONALLY...SEAS
HAVE RISEN TO 5-8FT...AND WILL LIKELY REACH 6-9FT EARLY
TODAY...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PRESENTLY CROSSING THE AREA AND SHOULD MOVE
OFFSHORE BY 12Z (15Z FARTHER NE). EXPECT THE WIND TO BECOME
SOUTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SPEEDS RELAXING TO 10-15KT.
INHERITED SCA FLAGS REMAIN AS IS. HOWEVER...THE RIVERS COULD
POTENTIALLY END EARLIER THAN THE CURRENT 10 AM TIME. THIS WILL BE
RECONSIDERED AT THE 11Z/7 AM UPDATE. OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE W THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND MOVES ACROSS THE
COAST LATE TONIGHT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER
SHOWERS/TSTMS...WHICH WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING STRONG
WIND GUSTS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AVG QPF 0.75-2.00"...LOCALLY UP TO 2.50" OVR MOST OF THE RIVER
BASINS WILL RESULT IN RIVER LVLS TO PSBLY RISE TO 1/2-NR FULL
BANKFULL TUE INTO WED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW TODAY FOLLOWED BY MODEST SE FLOW TONIGHT
WILL ALLOW TIDAL ANOMALIES TO BUILD TO ~1.0FT ABOVE NORMAL LATER
TONIGHT PRIMARILY IN THE MIDDLE BAY AND ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
OF THE MD/VA ERN SHORE. SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING
WILL HELP MAINTAIN ~1.0 FT ANOMALIES IN THE MIDDLE BAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY AS THE
FLOW BECOMES OFFSHORE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201101
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
701 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. A COLD
FRONT THEN CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NORTH OF RICHMOND THIS MORNING AND SHOULD
CLEAR OUR NORTHERN FA IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. LAST BIT OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS MOVING OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING. MOST
LOCATIONS ENDED UP BETWEEN 0.50-2.00" OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION THROUGH AT LEAST THE MID-
AFTERNOON HOURS. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND GOOD MIXING (BREEZY THIS
AFTN) WILL BOOST MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOW/MID 70S AT THE COAST...AND
UPR 70S TO LOW/MID 80S ELSEWHERE. CONCERN THEN SHIFTS TO A TROUGH
ALOFT/COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY LATE THIS AFTN/EVE.
WARM TEMPS AND AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHWRS AND TSTMS. SPC CONTINUES TO HAVE
OUR FA OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN/EVE FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX IS CERTAINLY THERE GIVEN ML CAPE VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE...STEEP LAPSE
RATES...AND A MODEST SHEAR PROFILE. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
POSSIBLE STRONG/ISOLD SVR STORMS IN THE HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FA TONIGHT WITH CHC POPS...THEN
DRYING/COOLER WESTERLY FLOW TAKING OVR INTO TUE. PARTLY/MOSTLY
SUNNY TUE WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO NR 70 AT THE
COAST...AND LOW/MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

HIGH PRES MOVES TO NR THE SE CONUS COAST BY WED...PROVIDING WSW
FLOW AND CONTINUING MILD WX. A WEAK TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE WNW...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS (ISOLD TSTMS). LOW TEMPS TUE NGT
MID 40S WEST AND NORTH TO LOW 50S SE. HIGH TEMPS WED IN THE
LOW/MID 70S...EXCEPT 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS UPPER
CLOSED LOW REMAINS IN VIC OF THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD...FAST MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATE
WEDS NIGHT-EARLY THURS MORNING. GFS CONTINUES TO REMAIN ON THE
SLOWER SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE WRT FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH THE ECMWF
QUICKER. BASED ON WLY FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BACK OVER THE
MIDWEST...OPTED TO REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDS NIGHT OVER
THE NRN AND NERN ZONES AND THEN THURS SOUTH AND EAST OF
RICHMOND...TRENDING SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE SLOWER GFS. HIGHS THURS
AROUND NORMAL...LOW-MID 60S. THEREAFTER...COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SWD FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE MIDWEST...EXTENDING INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRI. HIGHS FRI GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S NE TO
MID 60S SE UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND NWLY WINDS. SRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO LIFT INTO THE MIDWEST FRI NIGHT-SAT WITH
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW FORECAST TO PROGRESS EWD ALONG A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF STATES SAT. MOISTURE RETURNS SAT TO GO ALONG
WITH OVERRUNNING AND WEAK PERTURBATIONS ALOFT. INCREASED POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE N TO CHANCE S. HIGHS SAT GENERALLY AROUND 60 ACROSS
THE REGION. SFC LOW MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SAT NIGHT...WITH
ANY REMAINING PRECIP EXPECTED ACROSS THE SE LOCAL AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS SUN...BUT COOL CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S NE TO LOW 60S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS LIFTING NNE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS OF
06Z...WITH A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE PIEDMONT. A BAND OF
RAIN IS TRACKING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH EVEN A LINE OF CONVECTION OVER E-CENTRAL NC. CIGS
HAVE BEEN VARIABLE UP TO THIS TIME...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
AT IFR BETWEEN 07-10Z...WITH A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM SW-NE
BETWEEN 10-13Z. VSBY HAS BEEN VARIABLE AS WELL AND HAS LARGELY
BEEN IMPACTED BY THE INTENSITY OF THE RAIN. EXPECT VSBY TO AVERAGE
3-5SM...WITH 1-2SM IN HEAVIER RAIN AND ANY TSTMS. A SE WIND WILL
AVERAGE 15-20KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25KT AS THE FRONTAL RAIN BAND
PASSES THROUGH...AND THEN BECOME S AND DIMINISH TO 10-15KT THIS
MORNING. A MENTION OF LLWS HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AT SBY/PHF/ORF.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING CLOUD COVER ACTUALLY
SCATTERING OUT BY THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A GUSTY SW WIND. A
SECONDARY IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BRINGING A CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. ANY TSTMS COULD CONTAIN
STRONG WIND GUSTS. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST LATER
TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE IS LIFTING NNE OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS
COMBINATION IS PRODUCING SOLID SCA CONDITIONS IN SE FLOW WITH WIND
SPEEDS AVERAGING 20-25KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. ADDITIONALLY...SEAS
HAVE RISEN TO 5-8FT...AND WILL LIKELY REACH 6-9FT EARLY
TODAY...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PRESENTLY CROSSING THE AREA AND SHOULD MOVE
OFFSHORE BY 12Z (15Z FARTHER NE). EXPECT THE WIND TO BECOME
SOUTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SPEEDS RELAXING TO 10-15KT.
INHERITED SCA FLAGS REMAIN AS IS. HOWEVER...THE RIVERS COULD
POTENTIALLY END EARLIER THAN THE CURRENT 10 AM TIME. THIS WILL BE
RECONSIDERED AT THE 11Z/7 AM UPDATE. OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE W THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND MOVES ACROSS THE
COAST LATE TONIGHT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER
SHOWERS/TSTMS...WHICH WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING STRONG
WIND GUSTS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AVG QPF 0.75-2.00"...LOCALLY UP TO 2.50" OVR MOST OF THE RIVER
BASINS WILL RESULT IN RIVER LVLS TO PSBLY RISE TO 1/2-NR FULL
BANKFULL TUE INTO WED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW TODAY FOLLOWED BY MODEST SE FLOW TONIGHT
WILL ALLOW TIDAL ANOMALIES TO BUILD TO ~1.0FT ABOVE NORMAL LATER
TONIGHT PRIMARILY IN THE MIDDLE BAY AND ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
OF THE MD/VA ERN SHORE. SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING
WILL HELP MAINTAIN ~1.0 FT ANOMALIES IN THE MIDDLE BAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY AS THE
FLOW BECOMES OFFSHORE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201101
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
701 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. A COLD
FRONT THEN CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NORTH OF RICHMOND THIS MORNING AND SHOULD
CLEAR OUR NORTHERN FA IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. LAST BIT OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS MOVING OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING. MOST
LOCATIONS ENDED UP BETWEEN 0.50-2.00" OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION THROUGH AT LEAST THE MID-
AFTERNOON HOURS. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND GOOD MIXING (BREEZY THIS
AFTN) WILL BOOST MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOW/MID 70S AT THE COAST...AND
UPR 70S TO LOW/MID 80S ELSEWHERE. CONCERN THEN SHIFTS TO A TROUGH
ALOFT/COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY LATE THIS AFTN/EVE.
WARM TEMPS AND AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHWRS AND TSTMS. SPC CONTINUES TO HAVE
OUR FA OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN/EVE FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX IS CERTAINLY THERE GIVEN ML CAPE VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE...STEEP LAPSE
RATES...AND A MODEST SHEAR PROFILE. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
POSSIBLE STRONG/ISOLD SVR STORMS IN THE HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FA TONIGHT WITH CHC POPS...THEN
DRYING/COOLER WESTERLY FLOW TAKING OVR INTO TUE. PARTLY/MOSTLY
SUNNY TUE WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO NR 70 AT THE
COAST...AND LOW/MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

HIGH PRES MOVES TO NR THE SE CONUS COAST BY WED...PROVIDING WSW
FLOW AND CONTINUING MILD WX. A WEAK TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE WNW...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS (ISOLD TSTMS). LOW TEMPS TUE NGT
MID 40S WEST AND NORTH TO LOW 50S SE. HIGH TEMPS WED IN THE
LOW/MID 70S...EXCEPT 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS UPPER
CLOSED LOW REMAINS IN VIC OF THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD...FAST MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATE
WEDS NIGHT-EARLY THURS MORNING. GFS CONTINUES TO REMAIN ON THE
SLOWER SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE WRT FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH THE ECMWF
QUICKER. BASED ON WLY FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BACK OVER THE
MIDWEST...OPTED TO REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDS NIGHT OVER
THE NRN AND NERN ZONES AND THEN THURS SOUTH AND EAST OF
RICHMOND...TRENDING SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE SLOWER GFS. HIGHS THURS
AROUND NORMAL...LOW-MID 60S. THEREAFTER...COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SWD FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE MIDWEST...EXTENDING INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRI. HIGHS FRI GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S NE TO
MID 60S SE UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND NWLY WINDS. SRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO LIFT INTO THE MIDWEST FRI NIGHT-SAT WITH
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW FORECAST TO PROGRESS EWD ALONG A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF STATES SAT. MOISTURE RETURNS SAT TO GO ALONG
WITH OVERRUNNING AND WEAK PERTURBATIONS ALOFT. INCREASED POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE N TO CHANCE S. HIGHS SAT GENERALLY AROUND 60 ACROSS
THE REGION. SFC LOW MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SAT NIGHT...WITH
ANY REMAINING PRECIP EXPECTED ACROSS THE SE LOCAL AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS SUN...BUT COOL CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S NE TO LOW 60S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS LIFTING NNE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS OF
06Z...WITH A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE PIEDMONT. A BAND OF
RAIN IS TRACKING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH EVEN A LINE OF CONVECTION OVER E-CENTRAL NC. CIGS
HAVE BEEN VARIABLE UP TO THIS TIME...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
AT IFR BETWEEN 07-10Z...WITH A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM SW-NE
BETWEEN 10-13Z. VSBY HAS BEEN VARIABLE AS WELL AND HAS LARGELY
BEEN IMPACTED BY THE INTENSITY OF THE RAIN. EXPECT VSBY TO AVERAGE
3-5SM...WITH 1-2SM IN HEAVIER RAIN AND ANY TSTMS. A SE WIND WILL
AVERAGE 15-20KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25KT AS THE FRONTAL RAIN BAND
PASSES THROUGH...AND THEN BECOME S AND DIMINISH TO 10-15KT THIS
MORNING. A MENTION OF LLWS HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AT SBY/PHF/ORF.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING CLOUD COVER ACTUALLY
SCATTERING OUT BY THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A GUSTY SW WIND. A
SECONDARY IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BRINGING A CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. ANY TSTMS COULD CONTAIN
STRONG WIND GUSTS. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST LATER
TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE IS LIFTING NNE OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS
COMBINATION IS PRODUCING SOLID SCA CONDITIONS IN SE FLOW WITH WIND
SPEEDS AVERAGING 20-25KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. ADDITIONALLY...SEAS
HAVE RISEN TO 5-8FT...AND WILL LIKELY REACH 6-9FT EARLY
TODAY...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PRESENTLY CROSSING THE AREA AND SHOULD MOVE
OFFSHORE BY 12Z (15Z FARTHER NE). EXPECT THE WIND TO BECOME
SOUTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SPEEDS RELAXING TO 10-15KT.
INHERITED SCA FLAGS REMAIN AS IS. HOWEVER...THE RIVERS COULD
POTENTIALLY END EARLIER THAN THE CURRENT 10 AM TIME. THIS WILL BE
RECONSIDERED AT THE 11Z/7 AM UPDATE. OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE W THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND MOVES ACROSS THE
COAST LATE TONIGHT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER
SHOWERS/TSTMS...WHICH WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING STRONG
WIND GUSTS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AVG QPF 0.75-2.00"...LOCALLY UP TO 2.50" OVR MOST OF THE RIVER
BASINS WILL RESULT IN RIVER LVLS TO PSBLY RISE TO 1/2-NR FULL
BANKFULL TUE INTO WED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW TODAY FOLLOWED BY MODEST SE FLOW TONIGHT
WILL ALLOW TIDAL ANOMALIES TO BUILD TO ~1.0FT ABOVE NORMAL LATER
TONIGHT PRIMARILY IN THE MIDDLE BAY AND ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
OF THE MD/VA ERN SHORE. SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING
WILL HELP MAINTAIN ~1.0 FT ANOMALIES IN THE MIDDLE BAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY AS THE
FLOW BECOMES OFFSHORE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201101
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
701 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. A COLD
FRONT THEN CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NORTH OF RICHMOND THIS MORNING AND SHOULD
CLEAR OUR NORTHERN FA IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. LAST BIT OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS MOVING OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING. MOST
LOCATIONS ENDED UP BETWEEN 0.50-2.00" OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION THROUGH AT LEAST THE MID-
AFTERNOON HOURS. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND GOOD MIXING (BREEZY THIS
AFTN) WILL BOOST MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOW/MID 70S AT THE COAST...AND
UPR 70S TO LOW/MID 80S ELSEWHERE. CONCERN THEN SHIFTS TO A TROUGH
ALOFT/COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY LATE THIS AFTN/EVE.
WARM TEMPS AND AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHWRS AND TSTMS. SPC CONTINUES TO HAVE
OUR FA OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN/EVE FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX IS CERTAINLY THERE GIVEN ML CAPE VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE...STEEP LAPSE
RATES...AND A MODEST SHEAR PROFILE. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
POSSIBLE STRONG/ISOLD SVR STORMS IN THE HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FA TONIGHT WITH CHC POPS...THEN
DRYING/COOLER WESTERLY FLOW TAKING OVR INTO TUE. PARTLY/MOSTLY
SUNNY TUE WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO NR 70 AT THE
COAST...AND LOW/MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

HIGH PRES MOVES TO NR THE SE CONUS COAST BY WED...PROVIDING WSW
FLOW AND CONTINUING MILD WX. A WEAK TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE WNW...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS (ISOLD TSTMS). LOW TEMPS TUE NGT
MID 40S WEST AND NORTH TO LOW 50S SE. HIGH TEMPS WED IN THE
LOW/MID 70S...EXCEPT 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS UPPER
CLOSED LOW REMAINS IN VIC OF THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD...FAST MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATE
WEDS NIGHT-EARLY THURS MORNING. GFS CONTINUES TO REMAIN ON THE
SLOWER SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE WRT FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH THE ECMWF
QUICKER. BASED ON WLY FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BACK OVER THE
MIDWEST...OPTED TO REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDS NIGHT OVER
THE NRN AND NERN ZONES AND THEN THURS SOUTH AND EAST OF
RICHMOND...TRENDING SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE SLOWER GFS. HIGHS THURS
AROUND NORMAL...LOW-MID 60S. THEREAFTER...COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SWD FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE MIDWEST...EXTENDING INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRI. HIGHS FRI GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S NE TO
MID 60S SE UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND NWLY WINDS. SRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO LIFT INTO THE MIDWEST FRI NIGHT-SAT WITH
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW FORECAST TO PROGRESS EWD ALONG A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF STATES SAT. MOISTURE RETURNS SAT TO GO ALONG
WITH OVERRUNNING AND WEAK PERTURBATIONS ALOFT. INCREASED POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE N TO CHANCE S. HIGHS SAT GENERALLY AROUND 60 ACROSS
THE REGION. SFC LOW MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SAT NIGHT...WITH
ANY REMAINING PRECIP EXPECTED ACROSS THE SE LOCAL AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS SUN...BUT COOL CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S NE TO LOW 60S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS LIFTING NNE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS OF
06Z...WITH A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE PIEDMONT. A BAND OF
RAIN IS TRACKING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH EVEN A LINE OF CONVECTION OVER E-CENTRAL NC. CIGS
HAVE BEEN VARIABLE UP TO THIS TIME...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
AT IFR BETWEEN 07-10Z...WITH A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM SW-NE
BETWEEN 10-13Z. VSBY HAS BEEN VARIABLE AS WELL AND HAS LARGELY
BEEN IMPACTED BY THE INTENSITY OF THE RAIN. EXPECT VSBY TO AVERAGE
3-5SM...WITH 1-2SM IN HEAVIER RAIN AND ANY TSTMS. A SE WIND WILL
AVERAGE 15-20KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25KT AS THE FRONTAL RAIN BAND
PASSES THROUGH...AND THEN BECOME S AND DIMINISH TO 10-15KT THIS
MORNING. A MENTION OF LLWS HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AT SBY/PHF/ORF.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING CLOUD COVER ACTUALLY
SCATTERING OUT BY THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A GUSTY SW WIND. A
SECONDARY IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BRINGING A CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. ANY TSTMS COULD CONTAIN
STRONG WIND GUSTS. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST LATER
TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE IS LIFTING NNE OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS
COMBINATION IS PRODUCING SOLID SCA CONDITIONS IN SE FLOW WITH WIND
SPEEDS AVERAGING 20-25KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. ADDITIONALLY...SEAS
HAVE RISEN TO 5-8FT...AND WILL LIKELY REACH 6-9FT EARLY
TODAY...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PRESENTLY CROSSING THE AREA AND SHOULD MOVE
OFFSHORE BY 12Z (15Z FARTHER NE). EXPECT THE WIND TO BECOME
SOUTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SPEEDS RELAXING TO 10-15KT.
INHERITED SCA FLAGS REMAIN AS IS. HOWEVER...THE RIVERS COULD
POTENTIALLY END EARLIER THAN THE CURRENT 10 AM TIME. THIS WILL BE
RECONSIDERED AT THE 11Z/7 AM UPDATE. OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE W THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND MOVES ACROSS THE
COAST LATE TONIGHT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER
SHOWERS/TSTMS...WHICH WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING STRONG
WIND GUSTS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AVG QPF 0.75-2.00"...LOCALLY UP TO 2.50" OVR MOST OF THE RIVER
BASINS WILL RESULT IN RIVER LVLS TO PSBLY RISE TO 1/2-NR FULL
BANKFULL TUE INTO WED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW TODAY FOLLOWED BY MODEST SE FLOW TONIGHT
WILL ALLOW TIDAL ANOMALIES TO BUILD TO ~1.0FT ABOVE NORMAL LATER
TONIGHT PRIMARILY IN THE MIDDLE BAY AND ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
OF THE MD/VA ERN SHORE. SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING
WILL HELP MAINTAIN ~1.0 FT ANOMALIES IN THE MIDDLE BAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY AS THE
FLOW BECOMES OFFSHORE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201101
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
701 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. A COLD
FRONT THEN CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NORTH OF RICHMOND THIS MORNING AND SHOULD
CLEAR OUR NORTHERN FA IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. LAST BIT OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS MOVING OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING. MOST
LOCATIONS ENDED UP BETWEEN 0.50-2.00" OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION THROUGH AT LEAST THE MID-
AFTERNOON HOURS. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND GOOD MIXING (BREEZY THIS
AFTN) WILL BOOST MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOW/MID 70S AT THE COAST...AND
UPR 70S TO LOW/MID 80S ELSEWHERE. CONCERN THEN SHIFTS TO A TROUGH
ALOFT/COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY LATE THIS AFTN/EVE.
WARM TEMPS AND AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHWRS AND TSTMS. SPC CONTINUES TO HAVE
OUR FA OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN/EVE FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX IS CERTAINLY THERE GIVEN ML CAPE VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE...STEEP LAPSE
RATES...AND A MODEST SHEAR PROFILE. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
POSSIBLE STRONG/ISOLD SVR STORMS IN THE HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FA TONIGHT WITH CHC POPS...THEN
DRYING/COOLER WESTERLY FLOW TAKING OVR INTO TUE. PARTLY/MOSTLY
SUNNY TUE WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO NR 70 AT THE
COAST...AND LOW/MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

HIGH PRES MOVES TO NR THE SE CONUS COAST BY WED...PROVIDING WSW
FLOW AND CONTINUING MILD WX. A WEAK TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE WNW...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS (ISOLD TSTMS). LOW TEMPS TUE NGT
MID 40S WEST AND NORTH TO LOW 50S SE. HIGH TEMPS WED IN THE
LOW/MID 70S...EXCEPT 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS UPPER
CLOSED LOW REMAINS IN VIC OF THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD...FAST MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATE
WEDS NIGHT-EARLY THURS MORNING. GFS CONTINUES TO REMAIN ON THE
SLOWER SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE WRT FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH THE ECMWF
QUICKER. BASED ON WLY FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BACK OVER THE
MIDWEST...OPTED TO REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDS NIGHT OVER
THE NRN AND NERN ZONES AND THEN THURS SOUTH AND EAST OF
RICHMOND...TRENDING SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE SLOWER GFS. HIGHS THURS
AROUND NORMAL...LOW-MID 60S. THEREAFTER...COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SWD FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE MIDWEST...EXTENDING INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRI. HIGHS FRI GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S NE TO
MID 60S SE UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND NWLY WINDS. SRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO LIFT INTO THE MIDWEST FRI NIGHT-SAT WITH
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW FORECAST TO PROGRESS EWD ALONG A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF STATES SAT. MOISTURE RETURNS SAT TO GO ALONG
WITH OVERRUNNING AND WEAK PERTURBATIONS ALOFT. INCREASED POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE N TO CHANCE S. HIGHS SAT GENERALLY AROUND 60 ACROSS
THE REGION. SFC LOW MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SAT NIGHT...WITH
ANY REMAINING PRECIP EXPECTED ACROSS THE SE LOCAL AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS SUN...BUT COOL CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S NE TO LOW 60S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS LIFTING NNE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS OF
06Z...WITH A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE PIEDMONT. A BAND OF
RAIN IS TRACKING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH EVEN A LINE OF CONVECTION OVER E-CENTRAL NC. CIGS
HAVE BEEN VARIABLE UP TO THIS TIME...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
AT IFR BETWEEN 07-10Z...WITH A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM SW-NE
BETWEEN 10-13Z. VSBY HAS BEEN VARIABLE AS WELL AND HAS LARGELY
BEEN IMPACTED BY THE INTENSITY OF THE RAIN. EXPECT VSBY TO AVERAGE
3-5SM...WITH 1-2SM IN HEAVIER RAIN AND ANY TSTMS. A SE WIND WILL
AVERAGE 15-20KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25KT AS THE FRONTAL RAIN BAND
PASSES THROUGH...AND THEN BECOME S AND DIMINISH TO 10-15KT THIS
MORNING. A MENTION OF LLWS HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AT SBY/PHF/ORF.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING CLOUD COVER ACTUALLY
SCATTERING OUT BY THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A GUSTY SW WIND. A
SECONDARY IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BRINGING A CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. ANY TSTMS COULD CONTAIN
STRONG WIND GUSTS. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST LATER
TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE IS LIFTING NNE OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS
COMBINATION IS PRODUCING SOLID SCA CONDITIONS IN SE FLOW WITH WIND
SPEEDS AVERAGING 20-25KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. ADDITIONALLY...SEAS
HAVE RISEN TO 5-8FT...AND WILL LIKELY REACH 6-9FT EARLY
TODAY...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PRESENTLY CROSSING THE AREA AND SHOULD MOVE
OFFSHORE BY 12Z (15Z FARTHER NE). EXPECT THE WIND TO BECOME
SOUTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SPEEDS RELAXING TO 10-15KT.
INHERITED SCA FLAGS REMAIN AS IS. HOWEVER...THE RIVERS COULD
POTENTIALLY END EARLIER THAN THE CURRENT 10 AM TIME. THIS WILL BE
RECONSIDERED AT THE 11Z/7 AM UPDATE. OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE W THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND MOVES ACROSS THE
COAST LATE TONIGHT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER
SHOWERS/TSTMS...WHICH WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING STRONG
WIND GUSTS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AVG QPF 0.75-2.00"...LOCALLY UP TO 2.50" OVR MOST OF THE RIVER
BASINS WILL RESULT IN RIVER LVLS TO PSBLY RISE TO 1/2-NR FULL
BANKFULL TUE INTO WED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW TODAY FOLLOWED BY MODEST SE FLOW TONIGHT
WILL ALLOW TIDAL ANOMALIES TO BUILD TO ~1.0FT ABOVE NORMAL LATER
TONIGHT PRIMARILY IN THE MIDDLE BAY AND ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
OF THE MD/VA ERN SHORE. SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING
WILL HELP MAINTAIN ~1.0 FT ANOMALIES IN THE MIDDLE BAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY AS THE
FLOW BECOMES OFFSHORE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201101
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
701 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. A COLD
FRONT THEN CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NORTH OF RICHMOND THIS MORNING AND SHOULD
CLEAR OUR NORTHERN FA IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. LAST BIT OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS MOVING OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING. MOST
LOCATIONS ENDED UP BETWEEN 0.50-2.00" OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION THROUGH AT LEAST THE MID-
AFTERNOON HOURS. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND GOOD MIXING (BREEZY THIS
AFTN) WILL BOOST MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOW/MID 70S AT THE COAST...AND
UPR 70S TO LOW/MID 80S ELSEWHERE. CONCERN THEN SHIFTS TO A TROUGH
ALOFT/COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY LATE THIS AFTN/EVE.
WARM TEMPS AND AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHWRS AND TSTMS. SPC CONTINUES TO HAVE
OUR FA OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN/EVE FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX IS CERTAINLY THERE GIVEN ML CAPE VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE...STEEP LAPSE
RATES...AND A MODEST SHEAR PROFILE. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
POSSIBLE STRONG/ISOLD SVR STORMS IN THE HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FA TONIGHT WITH CHC POPS...THEN
DRYING/COOLER WESTERLY FLOW TAKING OVR INTO TUE. PARTLY/MOSTLY
SUNNY TUE WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO NR 70 AT THE
COAST...AND LOW/MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

HIGH PRES MOVES TO NR THE SE CONUS COAST BY WED...PROVIDING WSW
FLOW AND CONTINUING MILD WX. A WEAK TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE WNW...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS (ISOLD TSTMS). LOW TEMPS TUE NGT
MID 40S WEST AND NORTH TO LOW 50S SE. HIGH TEMPS WED IN THE
LOW/MID 70S...EXCEPT 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS UPPER
CLOSED LOW REMAINS IN VIC OF THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD...FAST MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATE
WEDS NIGHT-EARLY THURS MORNING. GFS CONTINUES TO REMAIN ON THE
SLOWER SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE WRT FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH THE ECMWF
QUICKER. BASED ON WLY FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BACK OVER THE
MIDWEST...OPTED TO REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDS NIGHT OVER
THE NRN AND NERN ZONES AND THEN THURS SOUTH AND EAST OF
RICHMOND...TRENDING SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE SLOWER GFS. HIGHS THURS
AROUND NORMAL...LOW-MID 60S. THEREAFTER...COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SWD FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE MIDWEST...EXTENDING INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRI. HIGHS FRI GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S NE TO
MID 60S SE UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND NWLY WINDS. SRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO LIFT INTO THE MIDWEST FRI NIGHT-SAT WITH
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW FORECAST TO PROGRESS EWD ALONG A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF STATES SAT. MOISTURE RETURNS SAT TO GO ALONG
WITH OVERRUNNING AND WEAK PERTURBATIONS ALOFT. INCREASED POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE N TO CHANCE S. HIGHS SAT GENERALLY AROUND 60 ACROSS
THE REGION. SFC LOW MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SAT NIGHT...WITH
ANY REMAINING PRECIP EXPECTED ACROSS THE SE LOCAL AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS SUN...BUT COOL CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S NE TO LOW 60S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS LIFTING NNE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS OF
06Z...WITH A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE PIEDMONT. A BAND OF
RAIN IS TRACKING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH EVEN A LINE OF CONVECTION OVER E-CENTRAL NC. CIGS
HAVE BEEN VARIABLE UP TO THIS TIME...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
AT IFR BETWEEN 07-10Z...WITH A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM SW-NE
BETWEEN 10-13Z. VSBY HAS BEEN VARIABLE AS WELL AND HAS LARGELY
BEEN IMPACTED BY THE INTENSITY OF THE RAIN. EXPECT VSBY TO AVERAGE
3-5SM...WITH 1-2SM IN HEAVIER RAIN AND ANY TSTMS. A SE WIND WILL
AVERAGE 15-20KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25KT AS THE FRONTAL RAIN BAND
PASSES THROUGH...AND THEN BECOME S AND DIMINISH TO 10-15KT THIS
MORNING. A MENTION OF LLWS HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AT SBY/PHF/ORF.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING CLOUD COVER ACTUALLY
SCATTERING OUT BY THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A GUSTY SW WIND. A
SECONDARY IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BRINGING A CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. ANY TSTMS COULD CONTAIN
STRONG WIND GUSTS. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST LATER
TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE IS LIFTING NNE OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS
COMBINATION IS PRODUCING SOLID SCA CONDITIONS IN SE FLOW WITH WIND
SPEEDS AVERAGING 20-25KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. ADDITIONALLY...SEAS
HAVE RISEN TO 5-8FT...AND WILL LIKELY REACH 6-9FT EARLY
TODAY...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PRESENTLY CROSSING THE AREA AND SHOULD MOVE
OFFSHORE BY 12Z (15Z FARTHER NE). EXPECT THE WIND TO BECOME
SOUTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SPEEDS RELAXING TO 10-15KT.
INHERITED SCA FLAGS REMAIN AS IS. HOWEVER...THE RIVERS COULD
POTENTIALLY END EARLIER THAN THE CURRENT 10 AM TIME. THIS WILL BE
RECONSIDERED AT THE 11Z/7 AM UPDATE. OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE W THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND MOVES ACROSS THE
COAST LATE TONIGHT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER
SHOWERS/TSTMS...WHICH WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING STRONG
WIND GUSTS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AVG QPF 0.75-2.00"...LOCALLY UP TO 2.50" OVR MOST OF THE RIVER
BASINS WILL RESULT IN RIVER LVLS TO PSBLY RISE TO 1/2-NR FULL
BANKFULL TUE INTO WED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW TODAY FOLLOWED BY MODEST SE FLOW TONIGHT
WILL ALLOW TIDAL ANOMALIES TO BUILD TO ~1.0FT ABOVE NORMAL LATER
TONIGHT PRIMARILY IN THE MIDDLE BAY AND ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
OF THE MD/VA ERN SHORE. SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING
WILL HELP MAINTAIN ~1.0 FT ANOMALIES IN THE MIDDLE BAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY AS THE
FLOW BECOMES OFFSHORE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KLWX 200959
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
559 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES WILL
LIFT NORTH THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
REGION LATE MONDAY. AN UPPER LOW WILL THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED FORECAST TO CANCEL FLOOD WATCH. THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS
EXITING THE AREA...SO OTHER THAN LEFTOVER STANDING WATER...THE
FLOOD THREAT IS OVER.

EARLY THIS MORNING...PRIMARY SFC LOW IS CENTERED OVER MI...WITH
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL VA. LLJ/UPPER JET STREAK
INDUCED MDT/HVY RAINFALL IS PIVOTING NE...WITH DRYING NOTED IN WV
IMAGERY.

A WARM FRONT LOCATED OVER CENTRAL VA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY
LIFT TO THE NORTH...LEADING TO A RELATIVE DRY BREAK INTO THE MIDDAY
HOURS. HOW THE ATMOSPHERE IS ABLE TO RECOVER WILL DETERMINE SVR WX
CHANCES LATER TODAY. MAY TAKE LLVL CLOUDS A BIT TO SCOUR OUT...THEN
QUESTION BECOMES HOW MUCH MID/HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUD PERSISTS.
MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR HIGHS IN THE 70S...ALTHOUGH READINGS WILL
SOAR IF PROLONGED SUN DEVELOPS.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH...AIDED BY TERRAIN...DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE
STORMS WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. COVERAGE IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...BUT SCATTERED-NUMEROUS
SEEMS PLAUSIBLE. CONSISTENT INDICATIONS OF AROUND 1000 J/KG INSTBY
AND 30 KT BULK SHEAR WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS. THERE MAY BE SOME DISCRETE CELLS INITIALLY...EVENTUALLY
MORPHING INTO LINE SEGMENTS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DMGG
WINDS...ALTHOUGH STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL OF LARGE HAIL TOO. WHILE HODOGRAPHS NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE...THERE IS SOME LLVL VEERING AND A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF
A TORNADO FROM ANY STRONG DISCRETE CELLS. AT THIS TIME...NO AREA
OF THE CWA IS PARTICULARLY FAVORED...ALTHOUGH PARAMETERS MAY BE
SLIGHTLY BETTER EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.

STORMS WILL EXIT EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT
TRAILING THE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH WILL CROSS OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS MAY
LINGER LONGER IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS. TEMPS DROP INTO THE 40S
WEST...BUT SLOWER ADVECTION LIMITS LOWS TO THE 50S IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY WITH
WESTERLY FLOW LOCALLY. IT WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BUT
BREEZY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WILL HELP TEMPS RISE INTO THE 60S...WITH
NEAR 70 IN THE EAST.

AN ELONGATED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TUESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE RIDGES. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S.
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ADDITIONAL UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO AID IN
PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO COULD DEVELOP IN ANY ONE PORTION OF
THE REGION. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S WHILE
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP DOWN TO THE MIDDLE 40S...WITH
EXCEPTION TO THE UPPER 30S IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
EVOLVE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 7 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. THERE
COULD BE A FEW LINGERING RAIN OR PERHAPS A SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE
HIGHER RIDGES OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT DUE TO A SLIGHT UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY...MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION ONCE AGAIN. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO PASS ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF OUR CWA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

A FEW RAIN SHOWERS COULD STILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY BUT FOR THE MOST
PART HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO TAKE CONTROL BRIEFLY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT COULD SWING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MDT/LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL EXIT FROM S TO N EARLY THIS MORNING.
VSBYS WILL IMPROVE BUT QUESTIONABLE HOW QUICKLY MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL
SCOUR OUT...LIKELY BY MID/LATE MORNING. VFR LIKELY DURING MIDDAY
HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND COULD
CONTAIN STRONG WIND GUSTS/HAIL. COVERAGE/ORGANIZATION NOT EXPECTED
TO BE DEFINED ENOUGH TO PLACE SPECIFICS IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
SHIFT TO S THIS MORNING WITH WARM FRONT...THEN W WITH COLD FRONT
TONIGHT. GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND TUE AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT. MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM. VFR
CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
WINDS SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS TUESDAY NIGHT BECOMING WEST TO
NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS WEDNESDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THEN WEST TO NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ONCE HEAVIER RAIN EXITS AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...THE THREAT OF
GALE GUSTS WILL END. WINDS THEN SHIFT SOUTH WITH WARM FRONT FOR
TODAY...REMAINING AT SCA LEVELS. STORMS POSSIBLE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL. COLD FRONT CROSSES
TONIGHT WITH WIND SHIFT TO WEST. PERHAPS A WEAKENING OF WINDS NEAR
DAWN TUESDAY...BUT THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO SCA LEVELS DURING THE
DAY.

NO MARINE HAZARDS TUESDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY WITH WIND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES. NO MARINE HAZARDS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ESE WINDS HAVE CAUSED WATER LEVELS TO RISE TO AROUND A FOOT OR
SLIGHTLY HIGHER ABOVE ASTRO NORMS. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS
MOST LIKELY AT ANNAPOLIS...BALTIMORE AND DC/ALEXANDRIA FOR THE
MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE. FLOW BECOMES SWLY LATER TODAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT SO THE COASTAL FLOOD THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
PAST HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AUDIO DEGRADATION AT THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO CHARLOTTESVILLE
TRANSMITTER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
TECHNICIANS ARE SCHEDULED TO PERFORM MAINTENANCE AT THE
TRANSMITTER SITE TODAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     DCZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ011-
     014.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ054.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     538>543.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ530>534-
     538>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ535-536.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ535-
     536.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ535.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ537.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADS
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...ADS/KLW
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...ADS/KLW
MARINE...ADS/KLW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ADS/CAS
EQUIPMENT...LWX



000
FXUS61 KLWX 200959
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
559 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES WILL
LIFT NORTH THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
REGION LATE MONDAY. AN UPPER LOW WILL THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED FORECAST TO CANCEL FLOOD WATCH. THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS
EXITING THE AREA...SO OTHER THAN LEFTOVER STANDING WATER...THE
FLOOD THREAT IS OVER.

EARLY THIS MORNING...PRIMARY SFC LOW IS CENTERED OVER MI...WITH
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL VA. LLJ/UPPER JET STREAK
INDUCED MDT/HVY RAINFALL IS PIVOTING NE...WITH DRYING NOTED IN WV
IMAGERY.

A WARM FRONT LOCATED OVER CENTRAL VA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY
LIFT TO THE NORTH...LEADING TO A RELATIVE DRY BREAK INTO THE MIDDAY
HOURS. HOW THE ATMOSPHERE IS ABLE TO RECOVER WILL DETERMINE SVR WX
CHANCES LATER TODAY. MAY TAKE LLVL CLOUDS A BIT TO SCOUR OUT...THEN
QUESTION BECOMES HOW MUCH MID/HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUD PERSISTS.
MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR HIGHS IN THE 70S...ALTHOUGH READINGS WILL
SOAR IF PROLONGED SUN DEVELOPS.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH...AIDED BY TERRAIN...DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE
STORMS WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. COVERAGE IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...BUT SCATTERED-NUMEROUS
SEEMS PLAUSIBLE. CONSISTENT INDICATIONS OF AROUND 1000 J/KG INSTBY
AND 30 KT BULK SHEAR WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS. THERE MAY BE SOME DISCRETE CELLS INITIALLY...EVENTUALLY
MORPHING INTO LINE SEGMENTS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DMGG
WINDS...ALTHOUGH STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL OF LARGE HAIL TOO. WHILE HODOGRAPHS NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE...THERE IS SOME LLVL VEERING AND A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF
A TORNADO FROM ANY STRONG DISCRETE CELLS. AT THIS TIME...NO AREA
OF THE CWA IS PARTICULARLY FAVORED...ALTHOUGH PARAMETERS MAY BE
SLIGHTLY BETTER EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.

STORMS WILL EXIT EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT
TRAILING THE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH WILL CROSS OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS MAY
LINGER LONGER IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS. TEMPS DROP INTO THE 40S
WEST...BUT SLOWER ADVECTION LIMITS LOWS TO THE 50S IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY WITH
WESTERLY FLOW LOCALLY. IT WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BUT
BREEZY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WILL HELP TEMPS RISE INTO THE 60S...WITH
NEAR 70 IN THE EAST.

AN ELONGATED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TUESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE RIDGES. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S.
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ADDITIONAL UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO AID IN
PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO COULD DEVELOP IN ANY ONE PORTION OF
THE REGION. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S WHILE
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP DOWN TO THE MIDDLE 40S...WITH
EXCEPTION TO THE UPPER 30S IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
EVOLVE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 7 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. THERE
COULD BE A FEW LINGERING RAIN OR PERHAPS A SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE
HIGHER RIDGES OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT DUE TO A SLIGHT UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY...MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION ONCE AGAIN. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO PASS ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF OUR CWA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

A FEW RAIN SHOWERS COULD STILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY BUT FOR THE MOST
PART HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO TAKE CONTROL BRIEFLY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT COULD SWING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MDT/LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL EXIT FROM S TO N EARLY THIS MORNING.
VSBYS WILL IMPROVE BUT QUESTIONABLE HOW QUICKLY MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL
SCOUR OUT...LIKELY BY MID/LATE MORNING. VFR LIKELY DURING MIDDAY
HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND COULD
CONTAIN STRONG WIND GUSTS/HAIL. COVERAGE/ORGANIZATION NOT EXPECTED
TO BE DEFINED ENOUGH TO PLACE SPECIFICS IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
SHIFT TO S THIS MORNING WITH WARM FRONT...THEN W WITH COLD FRONT
TONIGHT. GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND TUE AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT. MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM. VFR
CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
WINDS SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS TUESDAY NIGHT BECOMING WEST TO
NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS WEDNESDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THEN WEST TO NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ONCE HEAVIER RAIN EXITS AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...THE THREAT OF
GALE GUSTS WILL END. WINDS THEN SHIFT SOUTH WITH WARM FRONT FOR
TODAY...REMAINING AT SCA LEVELS. STORMS POSSIBLE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL. COLD FRONT CROSSES
TONIGHT WITH WIND SHIFT TO WEST. PERHAPS A WEAKENING OF WINDS NEAR
DAWN TUESDAY...BUT THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO SCA LEVELS DURING THE
DAY.

NO MARINE HAZARDS TUESDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY WITH WIND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES. NO MARINE HAZARDS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ESE WINDS HAVE CAUSED WATER LEVELS TO RISE TO AROUND A FOOT OR
SLIGHTLY HIGHER ABOVE ASTRO NORMS. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS
MOST LIKELY AT ANNAPOLIS...BALTIMORE AND DC/ALEXANDRIA FOR THE
MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE. FLOW BECOMES SWLY LATER TODAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT SO THE COASTAL FLOOD THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
PAST HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AUDIO DEGRADATION AT THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO CHARLOTTESVILLE
TRANSMITTER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
TECHNICIANS ARE SCHEDULED TO PERFORM MAINTENANCE AT THE
TRANSMITTER SITE TODAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     DCZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ011-
     014.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ054.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     538>543.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ530>534-
     538>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ535-536.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ535-
     536.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ535.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ537.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADS
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...ADS/KLW
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...ADS/KLW
MARINE...ADS/KLW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ADS/CAS
EQUIPMENT...LWX




000
FXUS61 KLWX 200959
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
559 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES WILL
LIFT NORTH THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
REGION LATE MONDAY. AN UPPER LOW WILL THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED FORECAST TO CANCEL FLOOD WATCH. THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS
EXITING THE AREA...SO OTHER THAN LEFTOVER STANDING WATER...THE
FLOOD THREAT IS OVER.

EARLY THIS MORNING...PRIMARY SFC LOW IS CENTERED OVER MI...WITH
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL VA. LLJ/UPPER JET STREAK
INDUCED MDT/HVY RAINFALL IS PIVOTING NE...WITH DRYING NOTED IN WV
IMAGERY.

A WARM FRONT LOCATED OVER CENTRAL VA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY
LIFT TO THE NORTH...LEADING TO A RELATIVE DRY BREAK INTO THE MIDDAY
HOURS. HOW THE ATMOSPHERE IS ABLE TO RECOVER WILL DETERMINE SVR WX
CHANCES LATER TODAY. MAY TAKE LLVL CLOUDS A BIT TO SCOUR OUT...THEN
QUESTION BECOMES HOW MUCH MID/HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUD PERSISTS.
MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR HIGHS IN THE 70S...ALTHOUGH READINGS WILL
SOAR IF PROLONGED SUN DEVELOPS.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH...AIDED BY TERRAIN...DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE
STORMS WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. COVERAGE IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...BUT SCATTERED-NUMEROUS
SEEMS PLAUSIBLE. CONSISTENT INDICATIONS OF AROUND 1000 J/KG INSTBY
AND 30 KT BULK SHEAR WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS. THERE MAY BE SOME DISCRETE CELLS INITIALLY...EVENTUALLY
MORPHING INTO LINE SEGMENTS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DMGG
WINDS...ALTHOUGH STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL OF LARGE HAIL TOO. WHILE HODOGRAPHS NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE...THERE IS SOME LLVL VEERING AND A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF
A TORNADO FROM ANY STRONG DISCRETE CELLS. AT THIS TIME...NO AREA
OF THE CWA IS PARTICULARLY FAVORED...ALTHOUGH PARAMETERS MAY BE
SLIGHTLY BETTER EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.

STORMS WILL EXIT EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT
TRAILING THE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH WILL CROSS OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS MAY
LINGER LONGER IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS. TEMPS DROP INTO THE 40S
WEST...BUT SLOWER ADVECTION LIMITS LOWS TO THE 50S IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY WITH
WESTERLY FLOW LOCALLY. IT WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BUT
BREEZY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WILL HELP TEMPS RISE INTO THE 60S...WITH
NEAR 70 IN THE EAST.

AN ELONGATED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TUESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE RIDGES. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S.
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ADDITIONAL UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO AID IN
PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO COULD DEVELOP IN ANY ONE PORTION OF
THE REGION. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S WHILE
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP DOWN TO THE MIDDLE 40S...WITH
EXCEPTION TO THE UPPER 30S IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
EVOLVE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 7 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. THERE
COULD BE A FEW LINGERING RAIN OR PERHAPS A SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE
HIGHER RIDGES OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT DUE TO A SLIGHT UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY...MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION ONCE AGAIN. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO PASS ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF OUR CWA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

A FEW RAIN SHOWERS COULD STILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY BUT FOR THE MOST
PART HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO TAKE CONTROL BRIEFLY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT COULD SWING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MDT/LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL EXIT FROM S TO N EARLY THIS MORNING.
VSBYS WILL IMPROVE BUT QUESTIONABLE HOW QUICKLY MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL
SCOUR OUT...LIKELY BY MID/LATE MORNING. VFR LIKELY DURING MIDDAY
HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND COULD
CONTAIN STRONG WIND GUSTS/HAIL. COVERAGE/ORGANIZATION NOT EXPECTED
TO BE DEFINED ENOUGH TO PLACE SPECIFICS IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
SHIFT TO S THIS MORNING WITH WARM FRONT...THEN W WITH COLD FRONT
TONIGHT. GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND TUE AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT. MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM. VFR
CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
WINDS SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS TUESDAY NIGHT BECOMING WEST TO
NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS WEDNESDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THEN WEST TO NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ONCE HEAVIER RAIN EXITS AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...THE THREAT OF
GALE GUSTS WILL END. WINDS THEN SHIFT SOUTH WITH WARM FRONT FOR
TODAY...REMAINING AT SCA LEVELS. STORMS POSSIBLE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL. COLD FRONT CROSSES
TONIGHT WITH WIND SHIFT TO WEST. PERHAPS A WEAKENING OF WINDS NEAR
DAWN TUESDAY...BUT THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO SCA LEVELS DURING THE
DAY.

NO MARINE HAZARDS TUESDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY WITH WIND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES. NO MARINE HAZARDS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ESE WINDS HAVE CAUSED WATER LEVELS TO RISE TO AROUND A FOOT OR
SLIGHTLY HIGHER ABOVE ASTRO NORMS. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS
MOST LIKELY AT ANNAPOLIS...BALTIMORE AND DC/ALEXANDRIA FOR THE
MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE. FLOW BECOMES SWLY LATER TODAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT SO THE COASTAL FLOOD THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
PAST HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AUDIO DEGRADATION AT THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO CHARLOTTESVILLE
TRANSMITTER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
TECHNICIANS ARE SCHEDULED TO PERFORM MAINTENANCE AT THE
TRANSMITTER SITE TODAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     DCZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ011-
     014.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ054.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     538>543.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ530>534-
     538>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ535-536.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ535-
     536.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ535.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ537.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADS
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...ADS/KLW
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...ADS/KLW
MARINE...ADS/KLW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ADS/CAS
EQUIPMENT...LWX




000
FXUS61 KLWX 200959
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
559 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES WILL
LIFT NORTH THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
REGION LATE MONDAY. AN UPPER LOW WILL THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED FORECAST TO CANCEL FLOOD WATCH. THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS
EXITING THE AREA...SO OTHER THAN LEFTOVER STANDING WATER...THE
FLOOD THREAT IS OVER.

EARLY THIS MORNING...PRIMARY SFC LOW IS CENTERED OVER MI...WITH
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL VA. LLJ/UPPER JET STREAK
INDUCED MDT/HVY RAINFALL IS PIVOTING NE...WITH DRYING NOTED IN WV
IMAGERY.

A WARM FRONT LOCATED OVER CENTRAL VA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY
LIFT TO THE NORTH...LEADING TO A RELATIVE DRY BREAK INTO THE MIDDAY
HOURS. HOW THE ATMOSPHERE IS ABLE TO RECOVER WILL DETERMINE SVR WX
CHANCES LATER TODAY. MAY TAKE LLVL CLOUDS A BIT TO SCOUR OUT...THEN
QUESTION BECOMES HOW MUCH MID/HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUD PERSISTS.
MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR HIGHS IN THE 70S...ALTHOUGH READINGS WILL
SOAR IF PROLONGED SUN DEVELOPS.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH...AIDED BY TERRAIN...DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE
STORMS WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. COVERAGE IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...BUT SCATTERED-NUMEROUS
SEEMS PLAUSIBLE. CONSISTENT INDICATIONS OF AROUND 1000 J/KG INSTBY
AND 30 KT BULK SHEAR WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS. THERE MAY BE SOME DISCRETE CELLS INITIALLY...EVENTUALLY
MORPHING INTO LINE SEGMENTS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DMGG
WINDS...ALTHOUGH STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL OF LARGE HAIL TOO. WHILE HODOGRAPHS NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE...THERE IS SOME LLVL VEERING AND A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF
A TORNADO FROM ANY STRONG DISCRETE CELLS. AT THIS TIME...NO AREA
OF THE CWA IS PARTICULARLY FAVORED...ALTHOUGH PARAMETERS MAY BE
SLIGHTLY BETTER EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.

STORMS WILL EXIT EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT
TRAILING THE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH WILL CROSS OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS MAY
LINGER LONGER IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS. TEMPS DROP INTO THE 40S
WEST...BUT SLOWER ADVECTION LIMITS LOWS TO THE 50S IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY WITH
WESTERLY FLOW LOCALLY. IT WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BUT
BREEZY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WILL HELP TEMPS RISE INTO THE 60S...WITH
NEAR 70 IN THE EAST.

AN ELONGATED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TUESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE RIDGES. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S.
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ADDITIONAL UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO AID IN
PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO COULD DEVELOP IN ANY ONE PORTION OF
THE REGION. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S WHILE
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP DOWN TO THE MIDDLE 40S...WITH
EXCEPTION TO THE UPPER 30S IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
EVOLVE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 7 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. THERE
COULD BE A FEW LINGERING RAIN OR PERHAPS A SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE
HIGHER RIDGES OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT DUE TO A SLIGHT UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY...MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION ONCE AGAIN. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO PASS ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF OUR CWA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

A FEW RAIN SHOWERS COULD STILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY BUT FOR THE MOST
PART HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO TAKE CONTROL BRIEFLY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT COULD SWING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MDT/LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL EXIT FROM S TO N EARLY THIS MORNING.
VSBYS WILL IMPROVE BUT QUESTIONABLE HOW QUICKLY MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL
SCOUR OUT...LIKELY BY MID/LATE MORNING. VFR LIKELY DURING MIDDAY
HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND COULD
CONTAIN STRONG WIND GUSTS/HAIL. COVERAGE/ORGANIZATION NOT EXPECTED
TO BE DEFINED ENOUGH TO PLACE SPECIFICS IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
SHIFT TO S THIS MORNING WITH WARM FRONT...THEN W WITH COLD FRONT
TONIGHT. GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND TUE AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT. MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM. VFR
CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
WINDS SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS TUESDAY NIGHT BECOMING WEST TO
NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS WEDNESDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THEN WEST TO NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ONCE HEAVIER RAIN EXITS AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...THE THREAT OF
GALE GUSTS WILL END. WINDS THEN SHIFT SOUTH WITH WARM FRONT FOR
TODAY...REMAINING AT SCA LEVELS. STORMS POSSIBLE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL. COLD FRONT CROSSES
TONIGHT WITH WIND SHIFT TO WEST. PERHAPS A WEAKENING OF WINDS NEAR
DAWN TUESDAY...BUT THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO SCA LEVELS DURING THE
DAY.

NO MARINE HAZARDS TUESDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY WITH WIND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES. NO MARINE HAZARDS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ESE WINDS HAVE CAUSED WATER LEVELS TO RISE TO AROUND A FOOT OR
SLIGHTLY HIGHER ABOVE ASTRO NORMS. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS
MOST LIKELY AT ANNAPOLIS...BALTIMORE AND DC/ALEXANDRIA FOR THE
MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE. FLOW BECOMES SWLY LATER TODAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT SO THE COASTAL FLOOD THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
PAST HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AUDIO DEGRADATION AT THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO CHARLOTTESVILLE
TRANSMITTER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
TECHNICIANS ARE SCHEDULED TO PERFORM MAINTENANCE AT THE
TRANSMITTER SITE TODAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     DCZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ011-
     014.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ054.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     538>543.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ530>534-
     538>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ535-536.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ535-
     536.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ535.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ537.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADS
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...ADS/KLW
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...ADS/KLW
MARINE...ADS/KLW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ADS/CAS
EQUIPMENT...LWX




000
FXUS61 KLWX 200959
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
559 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES WILL
LIFT NORTH THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
REGION LATE MONDAY. AN UPPER LOW WILL THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED FORECAST TO CANCEL FLOOD WATCH. THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS
EXITING THE AREA...SO OTHER THAN LEFTOVER STANDING WATER...THE
FLOOD THREAT IS OVER.

EARLY THIS MORNING...PRIMARY SFC LOW IS CENTERED OVER MI...WITH
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL VA. LLJ/UPPER JET STREAK
INDUCED MDT/HVY RAINFALL IS PIVOTING NE...WITH DRYING NOTED IN WV
IMAGERY.

A WARM FRONT LOCATED OVER CENTRAL VA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY
LIFT TO THE NORTH...LEADING TO A RELATIVE DRY BREAK INTO THE MIDDAY
HOURS. HOW THE ATMOSPHERE IS ABLE TO RECOVER WILL DETERMINE SVR WX
CHANCES LATER TODAY. MAY TAKE LLVL CLOUDS A BIT TO SCOUR OUT...THEN
QUESTION BECOMES HOW MUCH MID/HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUD PERSISTS.
MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR HIGHS IN THE 70S...ALTHOUGH READINGS WILL
SOAR IF PROLONGED SUN DEVELOPS.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH...AIDED BY TERRAIN...DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE
STORMS WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. COVERAGE IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...BUT SCATTERED-NUMEROUS
SEEMS PLAUSIBLE. CONSISTENT INDICATIONS OF AROUND 1000 J/KG INSTBY
AND 30 KT BULK SHEAR WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS. THERE MAY BE SOME DISCRETE CELLS INITIALLY...EVENTUALLY
MORPHING INTO LINE SEGMENTS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DMGG
WINDS...ALTHOUGH STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL OF LARGE HAIL TOO. WHILE HODOGRAPHS NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE...THERE IS SOME LLVL VEERING AND A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF
A TORNADO FROM ANY STRONG DISCRETE CELLS. AT THIS TIME...NO AREA
OF THE CWA IS PARTICULARLY FAVORED...ALTHOUGH PARAMETERS MAY BE
SLIGHTLY BETTER EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.

STORMS WILL EXIT EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT
TRAILING THE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH WILL CROSS OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS MAY
LINGER LONGER IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS. TEMPS DROP INTO THE 40S
WEST...BUT SLOWER ADVECTION LIMITS LOWS TO THE 50S IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY WITH
WESTERLY FLOW LOCALLY. IT WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BUT
BREEZY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WILL HELP TEMPS RISE INTO THE 60S...WITH
NEAR 70 IN THE EAST.

AN ELONGATED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TUESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE RIDGES. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S.
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ADDITIONAL UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO AID IN
PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO COULD DEVELOP IN ANY ONE PORTION OF
THE REGION. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S WHILE
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP DOWN TO THE MIDDLE 40S...WITH
EXCEPTION TO THE UPPER 30S IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
EVOLVE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 7 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. THERE
COULD BE A FEW LINGERING RAIN OR PERHAPS A SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE
HIGHER RIDGES OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT DUE TO A SLIGHT UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY...MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION ONCE AGAIN. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO PASS ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF OUR CWA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

A FEW RAIN SHOWERS COULD STILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY BUT FOR THE MOST
PART HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO TAKE CONTROL BRIEFLY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT COULD SWING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MDT/LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL EXIT FROM S TO N EARLY THIS MORNING.
VSBYS WILL IMPROVE BUT QUESTIONABLE HOW QUICKLY MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL
SCOUR OUT...LIKELY BY MID/LATE MORNING. VFR LIKELY DURING MIDDAY
HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND COULD
CONTAIN STRONG WIND GUSTS/HAIL. COVERAGE/ORGANIZATION NOT EXPECTED
TO BE DEFINED ENOUGH TO PLACE SPECIFICS IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
SHIFT TO S THIS MORNING WITH WARM FRONT...THEN W WITH COLD FRONT
TONIGHT. GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND TUE AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT. MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM. VFR
CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
WINDS SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS TUESDAY NIGHT BECOMING WEST TO
NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS WEDNESDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THEN WEST TO NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ONCE HEAVIER RAIN EXITS AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...THE THREAT OF
GALE GUSTS WILL END. WINDS THEN SHIFT SOUTH WITH WARM FRONT FOR
TODAY...REMAINING AT SCA LEVELS. STORMS POSSIBLE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL. COLD FRONT CROSSES
TONIGHT WITH WIND SHIFT TO WEST. PERHAPS A WEAKENING OF WINDS NEAR
DAWN TUESDAY...BUT THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO SCA LEVELS DURING THE
DAY.

NO MARINE HAZARDS TUESDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY WITH WIND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES. NO MARINE HAZARDS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ESE WINDS HAVE CAUSED WATER LEVELS TO RISE TO AROUND A FOOT OR
SLIGHTLY HIGHER ABOVE ASTRO NORMS. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS
MOST LIKELY AT ANNAPOLIS...BALTIMORE AND DC/ALEXANDRIA FOR THE
MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE. FLOW BECOMES SWLY LATER TODAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT SO THE COASTAL FLOOD THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
PAST HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AUDIO DEGRADATION AT THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO CHARLOTTESVILLE
TRANSMITTER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
TECHNICIANS ARE SCHEDULED TO PERFORM MAINTENANCE AT THE
TRANSMITTER SITE TODAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     DCZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ011-
     014.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ054.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     538>543.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ530>534-
     538>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ535-536.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ535-
     536.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ535.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ537.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADS
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...ADS/KLW
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...ADS/KLW
MARINE...ADS/KLW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ADS/CAS
EQUIPMENT...LWX




000
FXUS61 KLWX 200959
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
559 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES WILL
LIFT NORTH THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
REGION LATE MONDAY. AN UPPER LOW WILL THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED FORECAST TO CANCEL FLOOD WATCH. THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS
EXITING THE AREA...SO OTHER THAN LEFTOVER STANDING WATER...THE
FLOOD THREAT IS OVER.

EARLY THIS MORNING...PRIMARY SFC LOW IS CENTERED OVER MI...WITH
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL VA. LLJ/UPPER JET STREAK
INDUCED MDT/HVY RAINFALL IS PIVOTING NE...WITH DRYING NOTED IN WV
IMAGERY.

A WARM FRONT LOCATED OVER CENTRAL VA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY
LIFT TO THE NORTH...LEADING TO A RELATIVE DRY BREAK INTO THE MIDDAY
HOURS. HOW THE ATMOSPHERE IS ABLE TO RECOVER WILL DETERMINE SVR WX
CHANCES LATER TODAY. MAY TAKE LLVL CLOUDS A BIT TO SCOUR OUT...THEN
QUESTION BECOMES HOW MUCH MID/HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUD PERSISTS.
MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR HIGHS IN THE 70S...ALTHOUGH READINGS WILL
SOAR IF PROLONGED SUN DEVELOPS.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH...AIDED BY TERRAIN...DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE
STORMS WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. COVERAGE IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...BUT SCATTERED-NUMEROUS
SEEMS PLAUSIBLE. CONSISTENT INDICATIONS OF AROUND 1000 J/KG INSTBY
AND 30 KT BULK SHEAR WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS. THERE MAY BE SOME DISCRETE CELLS INITIALLY...EVENTUALLY
MORPHING INTO LINE SEGMENTS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DMGG
WINDS...ALTHOUGH STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL OF LARGE HAIL TOO. WHILE HODOGRAPHS NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE...THERE IS SOME LLVL VEERING AND A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF
A TORNADO FROM ANY STRONG DISCRETE CELLS. AT THIS TIME...NO AREA
OF THE CWA IS PARTICULARLY FAVORED...ALTHOUGH PARAMETERS MAY BE
SLIGHTLY BETTER EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.

STORMS WILL EXIT EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT
TRAILING THE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH WILL CROSS OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS MAY
LINGER LONGER IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS. TEMPS DROP INTO THE 40S
WEST...BUT SLOWER ADVECTION LIMITS LOWS TO THE 50S IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY WITH
WESTERLY FLOW LOCALLY. IT WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BUT
BREEZY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WILL HELP TEMPS RISE INTO THE 60S...WITH
NEAR 70 IN THE EAST.

AN ELONGATED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TUESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE RIDGES. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S.
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ADDITIONAL UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO AID IN
PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO COULD DEVELOP IN ANY ONE PORTION OF
THE REGION. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S WHILE
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP DOWN TO THE MIDDLE 40S...WITH
EXCEPTION TO THE UPPER 30S IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
EVOLVE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 7 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. THERE
COULD BE A FEW LINGERING RAIN OR PERHAPS A SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE
HIGHER RIDGES OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT DUE TO A SLIGHT UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY...MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION ONCE AGAIN. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO PASS ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF OUR CWA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

A FEW RAIN SHOWERS COULD STILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY BUT FOR THE MOST
PART HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO TAKE CONTROL BRIEFLY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT COULD SWING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MDT/LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL EXIT FROM S TO N EARLY THIS MORNING.
VSBYS WILL IMPROVE BUT QUESTIONABLE HOW QUICKLY MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL
SCOUR OUT...LIKELY BY MID/LATE MORNING. VFR LIKELY DURING MIDDAY
HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND COULD
CONTAIN STRONG WIND GUSTS/HAIL. COVERAGE/ORGANIZATION NOT EXPECTED
TO BE DEFINED ENOUGH TO PLACE SPECIFICS IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
SHIFT TO S THIS MORNING WITH WARM FRONT...THEN W WITH COLD FRONT
TONIGHT. GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND TUE AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT. MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM. VFR
CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
WINDS SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS TUESDAY NIGHT BECOMING WEST TO
NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS WEDNESDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THEN WEST TO NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ONCE HEAVIER RAIN EXITS AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...THE THREAT OF
GALE GUSTS WILL END. WINDS THEN SHIFT SOUTH WITH WARM FRONT FOR
TODAY...REMAINING AT SCA LEVELS. STORMS POSSIBLE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL. COLD FRONT CROSSES
TONIGHT WITH WIND SHIFT TO WEST. PERHAPS A WEAKENING OF WINDS NEAR
DAWN TUESDAY...BUT THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO SCA LEVELS DURING THE
DAY.

NO MARINE HAZARDS TUESDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY WITH WIND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES. NO MARINE HAZARDS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ESE WINDS HAVE CAUSED WATER LEVELS TO RISE TO AROUND A FOOT OR
SLIGHTLY HIGHER ABOVE ASTRO NORMS. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS
MOST LIKELY AT ANNAPOLIS...BALTIMORE AND DC/ALEXANDRIA FOR THE
MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE. FLOW BECOMES SWLY LATER TODAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT SO THE COASTAL FLOOD THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
PAST HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AUDIO DEGRADATION AT THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO CHARLOTTESVILLE
TRANSMITTER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
TECHNICIANS ARE SCHEDULED TO PERFORM MAINTENANCE AT THE
TRANSMITTER SITE TODAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     DCZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ011-
     014.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ054.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     538>543.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ530>534-
     538>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ535-536.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ535-
     536.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ535.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ537.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADS
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...ADS/KLW
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...ADS/KLW
MARINE...ADS/KLW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ADS/CAS
EQUIPMENT...LWX




000
FXUS61 KRNK 200932
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
532 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND BRING SHOWERS
AND SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. WE WILL THEN SETTLE
INTO A COOLER...BREEZY...AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING WITH ANOTHER FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 525 AM EDT MONDAY...

THERE ARE LINGERING HYDRO ISSUES EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWING THE
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN FROM SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND SEVERAL
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE GRAYSON HIGHLANDS AND INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA UNTIL
AROUND 9AM. THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED WITH
ADJUSTMENTS MADE ACCORDINGLY.

THE NEXT CONCERN IS THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MESO MODELS DISSIPATE THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
CURRENTLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITH REDEVELOPMENT FIRING
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY FROMT HE BLUE RIDGE EAST. EARLY MORNING SATELLITE PICS
SHOW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AND WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 12C WE
SHOULD SEE SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE WELL INTO THE 70S TODAY. THIS
WILL GENERATE CAPE VALUES OF 1000J/KG TO 1500J/KG WHICH WILL BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT VIGOROUS CONVECTION. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL GIVE
US 0/6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40KTS TO 50KTS WITH A SOMEWHAT
LINEAR HODOGRAPH. THUS THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
PRESENT FOR A SEVERE THREAT...AND THE SPC SLIGHT RISK LOOKS TO BE
ON TARGET. WILL BE ANTICIPATING STORM CLUSTERS EVOLVING INTO
LINEAR ELEMENTS TO PRODUCE A WIND THREAT...AND THE MORE VIGOROUS
CELLS SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE TO SUPPORT
LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL AS WELL. WHILE SWATS REMAIN HIGH BELIEVE ANY
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LOCALIZED AND FURTHER EAST WHICH SHOULD HELP
AVOID AGGRAVATING THE HYDRO SITUATION. ENOUGH INGREDIENTS FOR A BUSY
AFTERNOON ON RADAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 525 AM EDT MONDAY...

BEHIND THE FRONT WE START TO SETTLE INTO A COOLER...BREEZY...AND
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN AS A BROAD CLOSED LOW TAKES UP
RESIDENCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFF TO OUR
EAST EARLY TONIGHT AND TAKE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
IT...LEAVING SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR WEST FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL DISSIPATE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY. COULD SEE THE
OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY OF COOKING UP SOME SHOWERS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BUT BELIEVE THE POPS ARE TOO SMALL TO MENTION SO WILL
KEEP THINGS UNDER 15 PERCENT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL ROTATE THROUGH
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL HAVE SOME SLIGHT INSTABILITY AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES TO WARRANT A MENTION OF THUNDER. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BRING WHAT LOOKS
TO BE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...

BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE AND DOMINATES THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...GRADUALLY SHIFTING FURTHER ESE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
THIS KEEPS THE REGION IN AN UNSTABLE/UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW WITH
NUMEROUS EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES. MODELS VARY CONSIDERABLY AS TO THE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE DISTURBANCES...BUT ENOUGH AGREEMENT
THAT POPS CANNOT BE DROPPED REALLY AT ANY TIME THE OVERALL TREND
IS TO PUSH THE BETTER MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES AND 850MB TEMPS DROP BELOW 0C IN THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES. THE ENTIRE PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH LOW CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WITH THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT THE
DRIEST. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...NO REAL CLEAR CONCERN AT THIS POINT FOR FROST/FREEZE
BECAUSE OF CYCLONIC FLOW AND CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 110 AM EDT MONDAY...

BULK OF THE RAIN IS HEADING NORTH OF THE AREA WITH THE WIND BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY AS LIGHT RAIN
TRACKS TO THE NORTH BY 08Z...THEN CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR
WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER...DEFINITELY BY 12Z MONDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT. PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL BRING BREEZY AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO THE AREA INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION...

VFR RETURNS LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS.

THEN THE NEXT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE
IN THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...RCS



000
FXUS61 KRNK 200932
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
532 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND BRING SHOWERS
AND SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. WE WILL THEN SETTLE
INTO A COOLER...BREEZY...AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING WITH ANOTHER FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 525 AM EDT MONDAY...

THERE ARE LINGERING HYDRO ISSUES EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWING THE
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN FROM SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND SEVERAL
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE GRAYSON HIGHLANDS AND INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA UNTIL
AROUND 9AM. THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED WITH
ADJUSTMENTS MADE ACCORDINGLY.

THE NEXT CONCERN IS THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MESO MODELS DISSIPATE THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
CURRENTLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITH REDEVELOPMENT FIRING
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY FROMT HE BLUE RIDGE EAST. EARLY MORNING SATELLITE PICS
SHOW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AND WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 12C WE
SHOULD SEE SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE WELL INTO THE 70S TODAY. THIS
WILL GENERATE CAPE VALUES OF 1000J/KG TO 1500J/KG WHICH WILL BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT VIGOROUS CONVECTION. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL GIVE
US 0/6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40KTS TO 50KTS WITH A SOMEWHAT
LINEAR HODOGRAPH. THUS THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
PRESENT FOR A SEVERE THREAT...AND THE SPC SLIGHT RISK LOOKS TO BE
ON TARGET. WILL BE ANTICIPATING STORM CLUSTERS EVOLVING INTO
LINEAR ELEMENTS TO PRODUCE A WIND THREAT...AND THE MORE VIGOROUS
CELLS SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE TO SUPPORT
LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL AS WELL. WHILE SWATS REMAIN HIGH BELIEVE ANY
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LOCALIZED AND FURTHER EAST WHICH SHOULD HELP
AVOID AGGRAVATING THE HYDRO SITUATION. ENOUGH INGREDIENTS FOR A BUSY
AFTERNOON ON RADAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 525 AM EDT MONDAY...

BEHIND THE FRONT WE START TO SETTLE INTO A COOLER...BREEZY...AND
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN AS A BROAD CLOSED LOW TAKES UP
RESIDENCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFF TO OUR
EAST EARLY TONIGHT AND TAKE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
IT...LEAVING SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR WEST FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL DISSIPATE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY. COULD SEE THE
OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY OF COOKING UP SOME SHOWERS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BUT BELIEVE THE POPS ARE TOO SMALL TO MENTION SO WILL
KEEP THINGS UNDER 15 PERCENT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL ROTATE THROUGH
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL HAVE SOME SLIGHT INSTABILITY AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES TO WARRANT A MENTION OF THUNDER. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BRING WHAT LOOKS
TO BE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...

BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE AND DOMINATES THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...GRADUALLY SHIFTING FURTHER ESE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
THIS KEEPS THE REGION IN AN UNSTABLE/UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW WITH
NUMEROUS EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES. MODELS VARY CONSIDERABLY AS TO THE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE DISTURBANCES...BUT ENOUGH AGREEMENT
THAT POPS CANNOT BE DROPPED REALLY AT ANY TIME THE OVERALL TREND
IS TO PUSH THE BETTER MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES AND 850MB TEMPS DROP BELOW 0C IN THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES. THE ENTIRE PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH LOW CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WITH THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT THE
DRIEST. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...NO REAL CLEAR CONCERN AT THIS POINT FOR FROST/FREEZE
BECAUSE OF CYCLONIC FLOW AND CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 110 AM EDT MONDAY...

BULK OF THE RAIN IS HEADING NORTH OF THE AREA WITH THE WIND BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY AS LIGHT RAIN
TRACKS TO THE NORTH BY 08Z...THEN CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR
WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER...DEFINITELY BY 12Z MONDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT. PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL BRING BREEZY AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO THE AREA INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION...

VFR RETURNS LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS.

THEN THE NEXT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE
IN THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...RCS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 200813
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
413 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. A
COLD FRONT THEN CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT CURRENTLY RESIDES ALONG THE HWY-460
CORRIDOR. THIS WARM FRONT WILL QUICKLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND SHOULD FINALLY CLEAR THE MD EASTERN SHORE
BETWEEN 15-18Z. PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS BEING ENHANCED
BY A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE THAT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA BY 12Z
OR SO. FOR THE MOST PART...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PCPN HAS MOVED
EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS MORNING. ALSO CONTINUE TO
WATCH A LINE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS/EMBEDDED TSTMS THAT IS MOVING
THROUGH SE VA/NE NC (ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT). SO FAR
THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEHAVED DUE TO WEAK SFC INSTABILITY AT THIS
EARLY HOUR...MEANING WE DON`T EXPECT ANY SVR WX. HOWEVER...THIS
LINE IS GENERATING SOME HEAVY RAIN WHICH WILL BE IMPACTING
HAMPTON ROADS JUST IN TIME FOR THE EARLY MORNING COMMUTE. THE
ENTIRE PCPN SHIELD WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST BY MID/LATE MORNING
(HOLDING ON THE LONGEST OVER THE EASTERN SHORE).

THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION AFTER THIS CURRENT ROUND OF
PCPN PASSES INTO THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. WE CAN EXPECT SOME
SUNSHINE TO RETURN AND TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 70S AT THE
COAST...AND UPR 70S TO LOW 80S ELSEWHERE (PERHAPS MID 80S
INTERIOR NE NC). CONCERN THEN SHIFTS TO A TROUGH ALOFT/COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY LATE THIS AFTN/EVE. WARM TEMPS AND AN
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
SHWRS AND TSTMS. SPC CONTINUES TO HAVE OUR FA OUTLOOKED IN A
SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN/EVE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLD
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX IS
CERTAINLY THERE GIVEN ML CAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
1000-1500 J/KG RANGE...STEEP LAPSE RATES...AND A MODEST SHEAR
PROFILE. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT POSSIBLE STRONG/ISOLD SVR
STORMS IN THE HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FA TONIGHT WITH CHC POPS...THEN
DRYING/COOLER WESTERLY FLOW TAKING OVR INTO TUE. PARTLY/MOSTLY
SUNNY TUE WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO NR 70 AT THE
COAST...AND LOW/MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

HIGH PRES MOVES TO NR THE SE CONUS COAST BY WED...PROVIDING WSW
FLOW AND CONTINUING MILD WX. A WEAK TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE WNW...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS (ISOLD TSTMS). LOW TEMPS TUE NGT
MID 40S WEST AND NORTH TO LOW 50S SE. HIGH TEMPS WED IN THE
LOW/MID 70S...EXCEPT 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS UPPER
CLOSED LOW REMAINS IN VIC OF THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD...FAST MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATE
WEDS NIGHT-EARLY THURS MORNING. GFS CONTINUES TO REMAIN ON THE
SLOWER SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE WRT FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH THE ECMWF
QUICKER. BASED ON WLY FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BACK OVER THE
MIDWEST...OPTED TO REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDS NIGHT OVER
THE NRN AND NERN ZONES AND THEN THURS SOUTH AND EAST OF
RICHMOND...TRENDING SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE SLOWER GFS. HIGHS THURS
AROUND NORMAL...LOW-MID 60S. THEREAFTER...COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SWD FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE MIDWEST...EXTENDING INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRI. HIGHS FRI GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S NE TO
MID 60S SE UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND NWLY WINDS. SRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO LIFT INTO THE MIDWEST FRI NIGHT-SAT WITH
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW FORECAST TO PROGRESS EWD ALONG A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF STATES SAT. MOISTURE RETURNS SAT TO GO ALONG
WITH OVERRUNNING AND WEAK PERTURBATIONS ALOFT. INCREASED POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE N TO CHANCE S. HIGHS SAT GENERALLY AROUND 60 ACROSS
THE REGION. SFC LOW MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SAT NIGHT...WITH
ANY REMAINING PRECIP EXPECTED ACROSS THE SE LOCAL AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS SUN...BUT COOL CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S NE TO LOW 60S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS LIFTING NNE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS OF
06Z...WITH A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE PIEDMONT. A BAND OF
RAIN IS TRACKING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH EVEN A LINE OF CONVECTION OVER E-CENTRAL NC. CIGS
HAVE BEEN VARIABLE UP TO THIS TIME...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
AT IFR BETWEEN 07-10Z...WITH A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM SW-NE
BETWEEN 10-13Z. VSBY HAS BEEN VARIABLE AS WELL AND HAS LARGELY
BEEN IMPACTED BY THE INTENSITY OF THE RAIN. EXPECT VSBY TO AVERAGE
3-5SM...WITH 1-2SM IN HEAVIER RAIN AND ANY TSTMS. A SE WIND WILL
AVERAGE 15-20KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25KT AS THE FRONTAL RAIN BAND
PASSES THROUGH...AND THEN BECOME S AND DIMINISH TO 10-15KT THIS
MORNING. A MENTION OF LLWS HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AT SBY/PHF/ORF.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING CLOUD COVER ACTUALLY
SCATTERING OUT BY THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A GUSTY SW WIND. A
SECONDARY IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BRINGING A CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. ANY TSTMS COULD CONTAIN
STRONG WIND GUSTS. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST LATER
TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE IS LIFTING NNE OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS
COMBINATION IS PRODUCING SOLID SCA CONDITIONS IN SE FLOW WITH WIND
SPEEDS AVERAGING 20-25KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. ADDITIONALLY...SEAS
HAVE RISEN TO 5-8FT...AND WILL LIKELY REACH 6-9FT EARLY
TODAY...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PRESENTLY CROSSING THE AREA AND SHOULD MOVE
OFFSHORE BY 12Z (15Z FARTHER NE). EXPECT THE WIND TO BECOME
SOUTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SPEEDS RELAXING TO 10-15KT.
INHERITED SCA FLAGS REMAIN AS IS. HOWEVER...THE RIVERS COULD
POTENTIALLY END EARLIER THAN THE CURRENT 10 AM TIME. THIS WILL BE
RECONSIDERED AT THE 11Z/7 AM UPDATE. OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE W THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND MOVES ACROSS THE
COAST LATE TONIGHT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER
SHOWERS/TSTMS...WHICH WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING STRONG
WIND GUSTS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AVG QPF 0.75-1.50"...LOCALLY UP TO 2.00" OVR MOST OF THE RIVER
BASINS WILL RESULT IN RIVER LVLS TO PSBLY RISE TO 1/2-NR FULL
BANKFULL TUE INTO WED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW TODAY FOLLOWED BY MODEST SE FLOW TONIGHT
WILL ALLOW TIDAL ANOMALIES TO BUILD TO ~1.0FT ABOVE NORMAL LATER
TONIGHT PRIMARILY IN THE MIDDLE BAY AND ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
OF THE MD/VA ERN SHORE. SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING
WILL HELP MAINTAIN ~1.0 FT ANOMALIES IN THE MIDDLE BAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY AS THE
FLOW BECOMES OFFSHORE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 200813
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
413 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. A
COLD FRONT THEN CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT CURRENTLY RESIDES ALONG THE HWY-460
CORRIDOR. THIS WARM FRONT WILL QUICKLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND SHOULD FINALLY CLEAR THE MD EASTERN SHORE
BETWEEN 15-18Z. PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS BEING ENHANCED
BY A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE THAT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA BY 12Z
OR SO. FOR THE MOST PART...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PCPN HAS MOVED
EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS MORNING. ALSO CONTINUE TO
WATCH A LINE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS/EMBEDDED TSTMS THAT IS MOVING
THROUGH SE VA/NE NC (ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT). SO FAR
THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEHAVED DUE TO WEAK SFC INSTABILITY AT THIS
EARLY HOUR...MEANING WE DON`T EXPECT ANY SVR WX. HOWEVER...THIS
LINE IS GENERATING SOME HEAVY RAIN WHICH WILL BE IMPACTING
HAMPTON ROADS JUST IN TIME FOR THE EARLY MORNING COMMUTE. THE
ENTIRE PCPN SHIELD WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST BY MID/LATE MORNING
(HOLDING ON THE LONGEST OVER THE EASTERN SHORE).

THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION AFTER THIS CURRENT ROUND OF
PCPN PASSES INTO THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. WE CAN EXPECT SOME
SUNSHINE TO RETURN AND TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 70S AT THE
COAST...AND UPR 70S TO LOW 80S ELSEWHERE (PERHAPS MID 80S
INTERIOR NE NC). CONCERN THEN SHIFTS TO A TROUGH ALOFT/COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY LATE THIS AFTN/EVE. WARM TEMPS AND AN
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
SHWRS AND TSTMS. SPC CONTINUES TO HAVE OUR FA OUTLOOKED IN A
SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN/EVE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLD
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX IS
CERTAINLY THERE GIVEN ML CAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
1000-1500 J/KG RANGE...STEEP LAPSE RATES...AND A MODEST SHEAR
PROFILE. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT POSSIBLE STRONG/ISOLD SVR
STORMS IN THE HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FA TONIGHT WITH CHC POPS...THEN
DRYING/COOLER WESTERLY FLOW TAKING OVR INTO TUE. PARTLY/MOSTLY
SUNNY TUE WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO NR 70 AT THE
COAST...AND LOW/MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

HIGH PRES MOVES TO NR THE SE CONUS COAST BY WED...PROVIDING WSW
FLOW AND CONTINUING MILD WX. A WEAK TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE WNW...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS (ISOLD TSTMS). LOW TEMPS TUE NGT
MID 40S WEST AND NORTH TO LOW 50S SE. HIGH TEMPS WED IN THE
LOW/MID 70S...EXCEPT 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS UPPER
CLOSED LOW REMAINS IN VIC OF THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD...FAST MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATE
WEDS NIGHT-EARLY THURS MORNING. GFS CONTINUES TO REMAIN ON THE
SLOWER SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE WRT FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH THE ECMWF
QUICKER. BASED ON WLY FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BACK OVER THE
MIDWEST...OPTED TO REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDS NIGHT OVER
THE NRN AND NERN ZONES AND THEN THURS SOUTH AND EAST OF
RICHMOND...TRENDING SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE SLOWER GFS. HIGHS THURS
AROUND NORMAL...LOW-MID 60S. THEREAFTER...COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SWD FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE MIDWEST...EXTENDING INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRI. HIGHS FRI GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S NE TO
MID 60S SE UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND NWLY WINDS. SRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO LIFT INTO THE MIDWEST FRI NIGHT-SAT WITH
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW FORECAST TO PROGRESS EWD ALONG A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF STATES SAT. MOISTURE RETURNS SAT TO GO ALONG
WITH OVERRUNNING AND WEAK PERTURBATIONS ALOFT. INCREASED POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE N TO CHANCE S. HIGHS SAT GENERALLY AROUND 60 ACROSS
THE REGION. SFC LOW MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SAT NIGHT...WITH
ANY REMAINING PRECIP EXPECTED ACROSS THE SE LOCAL AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS SUN...BUT COOL CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S NE TO LOW 60S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS LIFTING NNE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS OF
06Z...WITH A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE PIEDMONT. A BAND OF
RAIN IS TRACKING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH EVEN A LINE OF CONVECTION OVER E-CENTRAL NC. CIGS
HAVE BEEN VARIABLE UP TO THIS TIME...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
AT IFR BETWEEN 07-10Z...WITH A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM SW-NE
BETWEEN 10-13Z. VSBY HAS BEEN VARIABLE AS WELL AND HAS LARGELY
BEEN IMPACTED BY THE INTENSITY OF THE RAIN. EXPECT VSBY TO AVERAGE
3-5SM...WITH 1-2SM IN HEAVIER RAIN AND ANY TSTMS. A SE WIND WILL
AVERAGE 15-20KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25KT AS THE FRONTAL RAIN BAND
PASSES THROUGH...AND THEN BECOME S AND DIMINISH TO 10-15KT THIS
MORNING. A MENTION OF LLWS HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AT SBY/PHF/ORF.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING CLOUD COVER ACTUALLY
SCATTERING OUT BY THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A GUSTY SW WIND. A
SECONDARY IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BRINGING A CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. ANY TSTMS COULD CONTAIN
STRONG WIND GUSTS. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST LATER
TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE IS LIFTING NNE OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS
COMBINATION IS PRODUCING SOLID SCA CONDITIONS IN SE FLOW WITH WIND
SPEEDS AVERAGING 20-25KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. ADDITIONALLY...SEAS
HAVE RISEN TO 5-8FT...AND WILL LIKELY REACH 6-9FT EARLY
TODAY...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PRESENTLY CROSSING THE AREA AND SHOULD MOVE
OFFSHORE BY 12Z (15Z FARTHER NE). EXPECT THE WIND TO BECOME
SOUTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SPEEDS RELAXING TO 10-15KT.
INHERITED SCA FLAGS REMAIN AS IS. HOWEVER...THE RIVERS COULD
POTENTIALLY END EARLIER THAN THE CURRENT 10 AM TIME. THIS WILL BE
RECONSIDERED AT THE 11Z/7 AM UPDATE. OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE W THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND MOVES ACROSS THE
COAST LATE TONIGHT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER
SHOWERS/TSTMS...WHICH WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING STRONG
WIND GUSTS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AVG QPF 0.75-1.50"...LOCALLY UP TO 2.00" OVR MOST OF THE RIVER
BASINS WILL RESULT IN RIVER LVLS TO PSBLY RISE TO 1/2-NR FULL
BANKFULL TUE INTO WED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW TODAY FOLLOWED BY MODEST SE FLOW TONIGHT
WILL ALLOW TIDAL ANOMALIES TO BUILD TO ~1.0FT ABOVE NORMAL LATER
TONIGHT PRIMARILY IN THE MIDDLE BAY AND ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
OF THE MD/VA ERN SHORE. SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING
WILL HELP MAINTAIN ~1.0 FT ANOMALIES IN THE MIDDLE BAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY AS THE
FLOW BECOMES OFFSHORE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 200813
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
413 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. A
COLD FRONT THEN CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT CURRENTLY RESIDES ALONG THE HWY-460
CORRIDOR. THIS WARM FRONT WILL QUICKLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND SHOULD FINALLY CLEAR THE MD EASTERN SHORE
BETWEEN 15-18Z. PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS BEING ENHANCED
BY A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE THAT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA BY 12Z
OR SO. FOR THE MOST PART...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PCPN HAS MOVED
EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS MORNING. ALSO CONTINUE TO
WATCH A LINE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS/EMBEDDED TSTMS THAT IS MOVING
THROUGH SE VA/NE NC (ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT). SO FAR
THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEHAVED DUE TO WEAK SFC INSTABILITY AT THIS
EARLY HOUR...MEANING WE DON`T EXPECT ANY SVR WX. HOWEVER...THIS
LINE IS GENERATING SOME HEAVY RAIN WHICH WILL BE IMPACTING
HAMPTON ROADS JUST IN TIME FOR THE EARLY MORNING COMMUTE. THE
ENTIRE PCPN SHIELD WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST BY MID/LATE MORNING
(HOLDING ON THE LONGEST OVER THE EASTERN SHORE).

THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION AFTER THIS CURRENT ROUND OF
PCPN PASSES INTO THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. WE CAN EXPECT SOME
SUNSHINE TO RETURN AND TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 70S AT THE
COAST...AND UPR 70S TO LOW 80S ELSEWHERE (PERHAPS MID 80S
INTERIOR NE NC). CONCERN THEN SHIFTS TO A TROUGH ALOFT/COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY LATE THIS AFTN/EVE. WARM TEMPS AND AN
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
SHWRS AND TSTMS. SPC CONTINUES TO HAVE OUR FA OUTLOOKED IN A
SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN/EVE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLD
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX IS
CERTAINLY THERE GIVEN ML CAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
1000-1500 J/KG RANGE...STEEP LAPSE RATES...AND A MODEST SHEAR
PROFILE. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT POSSIBLE STRONG/ISOLD SVR
STORMS IN THE HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FA TONIGHT WITH CHC POPS...THEN
DRYING/COOLER WESTERLY FLOW TAKING OVR INTO TUE. PARTLY/MOSTLY
SUNNY TUE WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO NR 70 AT THE
COAST...AND LOW/MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

HIGH PRES MOVES TO NR THE SE CONUS COAST BY WED...PROVIDING WSW
FLOW AND CONTINUING MILD WX. A WEAK TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE WNW...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS (ISOLD TSTMS). LOW TEMPS TUE NGT
MID 40S WEST AND NORTH TO LOW 50S SE. HIGH TEMPS WED IN THE
LOW/MID 70S...EXCEPT 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS UPPER
CLOSED LOW REMAINS IN VIC OF THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD...FAST MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATE
WEDS NIGHT-EARLY THURS MORNING. GFS CONTINUES TO REMAIN ON THE
SLOWER SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE WRT FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH THE ECMWF
QUICKER. BASED ON WLY FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BACK OVER THE
MIDWEST...OPTED TO REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDS NIGHT OVER
THE NRN AND NERN ZONES AND THEN THURS SOUTH AND EAST OF
RICHMOND...TRENDING SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE SLOWER GFS. HIGHS THURS
AROUND NORMAL...LOW-MID 60S. THEREAFTER...COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SWD FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE MIDWEST...EXTENDING INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRI. HIGHS FRI GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S NE TO
MID 60S SE UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND NWLY WINDS. SRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO LIFT INTO THE MIDWEST FRI NIGHT-SAT WITH
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW FORECAST TO PROGRESS EWD ALONG A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF STATES SAT. MOISTURE RETURNS SAT TO GO ALONG
WITH OVERRUNNING AND WEAK PERTURBATIONS ALOFT. INCREASED POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE N TO CHANCE S. HIGHS SAT GENERALLY AROUND 60 ACROSS
THE REGION. SFC LOW MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SAT NIGHT...WITH
ANY REMAINING PRECIP EXPECTED ACROSS THE SE LOCAL AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS SUN...BUT COOL CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S NE TO LOW 60S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS LIFTING NNE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS OF
06Z...WITH A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE PIEDMONT. A BAND OF
RAIN IS TRACKING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH EVEN A LINE OF CONVECTION OVER E-CENTRAL NC. CIGS
HAVE BEEN VARIABLE UP TO THIS TIME...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
AT IFR BETWEEN 07-10Z...WITH A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM SW-NE
BETWEEN 10-13Z. VSBY HAS BEEN VARIABLE AS WELL AND HAS LARGELY
BEEN IMPACTED BY THE INTENSITY OF THE RAIN. EXPECT VSBY TO AVERAGE
3-5SM...WITH 1-2SM IN HEAVIER RAIN AND ANY TSTMS. A SE WIND WILL
AVERAGE 15-20KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25KT AS THE FRONTAL RAIN BAND
PASSES THROUGH...AND THEN BECOME S AND DIMINISH TO 10-15KT THIS
MORNING. A MENTION OF LLWS HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AT SBY/PHF/ORF.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING CLOUD COVER ACTUALLY
SCATTERING OUT BY THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A GUSTY SW WIND. A
SECONDARY IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BRINGING A CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. ANY TSTMS COULD CONTAIN
STRONG WIND GUSTS. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST LATER
TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE IS LIFTING NNE OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS
COMBINATION IS PRODUCING SOLID SCA CONDITIONS IN SE FLOW WITH WIND
SPEEDS AVERAGING 20-25KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. ADDITIONALLY...SEAS
HAVE RISEN TO 5-8FT...AND WILL LIKELY REACH 6-9FT EARLY
TODAY...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PRESENTLY CROSSING THE AREA AND SHOULD MOVE
OFFSHORE BY 12Z (15Z FARTHER NE). EXPECT THE WIND TO BECOME
SOUTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SPEEDS RELAXING TO 10-15KT.
INHERITED SCA FLAGS REMAIN AS IS. HOWEVER...THE RIVERS COULD
POTENTIALLY END EARLIER THAN THE CURRENT 10 AM TIME. THIS WILL BE
RECONSIDERED AT THE 11Z/7 AM UPDATE. OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE W THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND MOVES ACROSS THE
COAST LATE TONIGHT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER
SHOWERS/TSTMS...WHICH WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING STRONG
WIND GUSTS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AVG QPF 0.75-1.50"...LOCALLY UP TO 2.00" OVR MOST OF THE RIVER
BASINS WILL RESULT IN RIVER LVLS TO PSBLY RISE TO 1/2-NR FULL
BANKFULL TUE INTO WED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW TODAY FOLLOWED BY MODEST SE FLOW TONIGHT
WILL ALLOW TIDAL ANOMALIES TO BUILD TO ~1.0FT ABOVE NORMAL LATER
TONIGHT PRIMARILY IN THE MIDDLE BAY AND ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
OF THE MD/VA ERN SHORE. SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING
WILL HELP MAINTAIN ~1.0 FT ANOMALIES IN THE MIDDLE BAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY AS THE
FLOW BECOMES OFFSHORE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 200813
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
413 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. A
COLD FRONT THEN CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT CURRENTLY RESIDES ALONG THE HWY-460
CORRIDOR. THIS WARM FRONT WILL QUICKLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND SHOULD FINALLY CLEAR THE MD EASTERN SHORE
BETWEEN 15-18Z. PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS BEING ENHANCED
BY A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE THAT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA BY 12Z
OR SO. FOR THE MOST PART...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PCPN HAS MOVED
EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS MORNING. ALSO CONTINUE TO
WATCH A LINE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS/EMBEDDED TSTMS THAT IS MOVING
THROUGH SE VA/NE NC (ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT). SO FAR
THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEHAVED DUE TO WEAK SFC INSTABILITY AT THIS
EARLY HOUR...MEANING WE DON`T EXPECT ANY SVR WX. HOWEVER...THIS
LINE IS GENERATING SOME HEAVY RAIN WHICH WILL BE IMPACTING
HAMPTON ROADS JUST IN TIME FOR THE EARLY MORNING COMMUTE. THE
ENTIRE PCPN SHIELD WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST BY MID/LATE MORNING
(HOLDING ON THE LONGEST OVER THE EASTERN SHORE).

THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION AFTER THIS CURRENT ROUND OF
PCPN PASSES INTO THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. WE CAN EXPECT SOME
SUNSHINE TO RETURN AND TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 70S AT THE
COAST...AND UPR 70S TO LOW 80S ELSEWHERE (PERHAPS MID 80S
INTERIOR NE NC). CONCERN THEN SHIFTS TO A TROUGH ALOFT/COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY LATE THIS AFTN/EVE. WARM TEMPS AND AN
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
SHWRS AND TSTMS. SPC CONTINUES TO HAVE OUR FA OUTLOOKED IN A
SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN/EVE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLD
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX IS
CERTAINLY THERE GIVEN ML CAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
1000-1500 J/KG RANGE...STEEP LAPSE RATES...AND A MODEST SHEAR
PROFILE. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT POSSIBLE STRONG/ISOLD SVR
STORMS IN THE HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FA TONIGHT WITH CHC POPS...THEN
DRYING/COOLER WESTERLY FLOW TAKING OVR INTO TUE. PARTLY/MOSTLY
SUNNY TUE WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO NR 70 AT THE
COAST...AND LOW/MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

HIGH PRES MOVES TO NR THE SE CONUS COAST BY WED...PROVIDING WSW
FLOW AND CONTINUING MILD WX. A WEAK TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE WNW...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS (ISOLD TSTMS). LOW TEMPS TUE NGT
MID 40S WEST AND NORTH TO LOW 50S SE. HIGH TEMPS WED IN THE
LOW/MID 70S...EXCEPT 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS UPPER
CLOSED LOW REMAINS IN VIC OF THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD...FAST MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATE
WEDS NIGHT-EARLY THURS MORNING. GFS CONTINUES TO REMAIN ON THE
SLOWER SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE WRT FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH THE ECMWF
QUICKER. BASED ON WLY FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BACK OVER THE
MIDWEST...OPTED TO REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDS NIGHT OVER
THE NRN AND NERN ZONES AND THEN THURS SOUTH AND EAST OF
RICHMOND...TRENDING SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE SLOWER GFS. HIGHS THURS
AROUND NORMAL...LOW-MID 60S. THEREAFTER...COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SWD FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE MIDWEST...EXTENDING INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRI. HIGHS FRI GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S NE TO
MID 60S SE UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND NWLY WINDS. SRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO LIFT INTO THE MIDWEST FRI NIGHT-SAT WITH
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW FORECAST TO PROGRESS EWD ALONG A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF STATES SAT. MOISTURE RETURNS SAT TO GO ALONG
WITH OVERRUNNING AND WEAK PERTURBATIONS ALOFT. INCREASED POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE N TO CHANCE S. HIGHS SAT GENERALLY AROUND 60 ACROSS
THE REGION. SFC LOW MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SAT NIGHT...WITH
ANY REMAINING PRECIP EXPECTED ACROSS THE SE LOCAL AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS SUN...BUT COOL CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S NE TO LOW 60S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS LIFTING NNE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS OF
06Z...WITH A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE PIEDMONT. A BAND OF
RAIN IS TRACKING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH EVEN A LINE OF CONVECTION OVER E-CENTRAL NC. CIGS
HAVE BEEN VARIABLE UP TO THIS TIME...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
AT IFR BETWEEN 07-10Z...WITH A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM SW-NE
BETWEEN 10-13Z. VSBY HAS BEEN VARIABLE AS WELL AND HAS LARGELY
BEEN IMPACTED BY THE INTENSITY OF THE RAIN. EXPECT VSBY TO AVERAGE
3-5SM...WITH 1-2SM IN HEAVIER RAIN AND ANY TSTMS. A SE WIND WILL
AVERAGE 15-20KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25KT AS THE FRONTAL RAIN BAND
PASSES THROUGH...AND THEN BECOME S AND DIMINISH TO 10-15KT THIS
MORNING. A MENTION OF LLWS HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AT SBY/PHF/ORF.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING CLOUD COVER ACTUALLY
SCATTERING OUT BY THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A GUSTY SW WIND. A
SECONDARY IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BRINGING A CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. ANY TSTMS COULD CONTAIN
STRONG WIND GUSTS. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST LATER
TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE IS LIFTING NNE OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS
COMBINATION IS PRODUCING SOLID SCA CONDITIONS IN SE FLOW WITH WIND
SPEEDS AVERAGING 20-25KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. ADDITIONALLY...SEAS
HAVE RISEN TO 5-8FT...AND WILL LIKELY REACH 6-9FT EARLY
TODAY...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PRESENTLY CROSSING THE AREA AND SHOULD MOVE
OFFSHORE BY 12Z (15Z FARTHER NE). EXPECT THE WIND TO BECOME
SOUTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SPEEDS RELAXING TO 10-15KT.
INHERITED SCA FLAGS REMAIN AS IS. HOWEVER...THE RIVERS COULD
POTENTIALLY END EARLIER THAN THE CURRENT 10 AM TIME. THIS WILL BE
RECONSIDERED AT THE 11Z/7 AM UPDATE. OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE W THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND MOVES ACROSS THE
COAST LATE TONIGHT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER
SHOWERS/TSTMS...WHICH WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING STRONG
WIND GUSTS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AVG QPF 0.75-1.50"...LOCALLY UP TO 2.00" OVR MOST OF THE RIVER
BASINS WILL RESULT IN RIVER LVLS TO PSBLY RISE TO 1/2-NR FULL
BANKFULL TUE INTO WED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW TODAY FOLLOWED BY MODEST SE FLOW TONIGHT
WILL ALLOW TIDAL ANOMALIES TO BUILD TO ~1.0FT ABOVE NORMAL LATER
TONIGHT PRIMARILY IN THE MIDDLE BAY AND ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
OF THE MD/VA ERN SHORE. SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING
WILL HELP MAINTAIN ~1.0 FT ANOMALIES IN THE MIDDLE BAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY AS THE
FLOW BECOMES OFFSHORE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ



000
FXUS61 KLWX 200800
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES WILL
LIFT NORTH THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
REGION LATE MONDAY. AN UPPER LOW WILL THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...PRIMARY SFC LOW IS CENTERED OVER MI...WITH
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL VA. LLJ/UPPER JET STREAK
INDUCED MDT/HVY RAINFALL IS PIVOTING NE...WITH DRYING NOTED IN WV
IMAGERY. MOST OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL LIKELY EXIT TO THE NE BY
AROUND 8 AM IF NOT SOONER. HAVE CANCELLED THE FLOOD WATCH WHERE
HEAVY RAIN ENDED...AND WILL FOLLOW SUIT AS SOON AS THE REST EXITS.
A FEW LIGHTER SHOWERS MAY LINGER.

A WARM FRONT LOCATED OVER CENTRAL VA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY
LIFT TO THE NORTH...LEADING TO A RELATIVE DRY BREAK INTO THE MIDDAY
HOURS. HOW THE ATMOSPHERE IS ABLE TO RECOVER WILL DETERMINE SVR WX
CHANCES LATER TODAY. MAY TAKE LLVL CLOUDS A BIT TO SCOUR OUT...THEN
QUESTION BECOMES HOW MUCH MID/HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUD PERSISTS.
MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR HIGHS IN THE 70S...ALTHOUGH READINGS WILL
SOAR IF PROLONGED SUN DEVELOPS.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH...AIDED BY TERRAIN...DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE
STORMS WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. COVERAGE IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...BUT SCATTERED-NUMEROUS
SEEMS PLAUSIBLE. CONSISTENT INDICATIONS OF AROUND 1000 J/KG INSTBY
AND 30 KT BULK SHEAR WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS. THERE MAY BE SOME DISCRETE CELLS INITIALLY...EVENTUALLY
MORPHING INTO LINE SEGMENTS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DMGG
WINDS...ALTHOUGH STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL OF LARGE HAIL TOO. WHILE HODOGRAPHS NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE...THERE IS SOME LLVL VEERING AND A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF
A TORNADO FROM ANY STRONG DISCRETE CELLS. AT THIS TIME...NO AREA
OF THE CWA IS PARTICULARLY FAVORED...ALTHOUGH PARAMETERS MAY BE
SLIGHTLY BETTER EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.

STORMS WILL EXIT EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT
TRAILING THE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH WILL CROSS OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS MAY
LINGER LONGER IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS. TEMPS DROP INTO THE 40S
WEST...BUT SLOWER ADVECTION LIMITS LOWS TO THE 50S IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY WITH
WESTERLY FLOW LOCALLY. IT WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BUT
BREEZY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WILL HELP TEMPS RISE INTO THE 60S...WITH
NEAR 70 IN THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN ELONGATED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TUESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE RIDGES. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S.
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ADDITIONAL UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO AID IN
PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO COULD DEVELOP IN ANY ONE PORTION OF
THE REGION. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S WHILE
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP DOWN TO THE MIDDLE 40S...WITH
EXCEPTION TO THE UPPER 30S IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL EVOLVE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 7 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. THERE COULD BE A
FEW LINGERING RAIN OR PERHAPS A SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE HIGHER RIDGES
OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO A
SLIGHT UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY...MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION ONCE AGAIN. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO PASS ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF OUR CWA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

A FEW RAIN SHOWERS COULD STILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY BUT FOR THE MOST
PART HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO TAKE CONTROL BRIEFLY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT COULD SWING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MDT/LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL EXIT FROM S TO N EARLY THIS MORNING.
VSBYS WILL IMPROVE BUT QUESTIONABLE HOW QUICKLY MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL
SCOUR OUT...LIKELY BY MID/LATE MORNING. VFR LIKELY DURING MIDDAY
HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND COULD
CONTAIN STRONG WIND GUSTS/HAIL. COVERAGE/ORGANIZATION NOT EXPECTED
TO BE DEFINED ENOUGH TO PLACE SPECIFICS IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
SHIFT TO S THIS MORNING WITH WARM FRONT...THEN W WITH COLD FRONT
TONIGHT. GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND TUE AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT. MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM. VFR
CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
WINDS SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS TUESDAY NIGHT BECOMING WEST TO
NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS WEDNESDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THEN WEST TO NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOME GALE GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH DAWN WITH LLJ. WINDS THEN SHIFT
SOUTH WITH WARM FRONT FOR TODAY...REMAINING AT SCA LEVELS. STORMS
POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL. COLD
FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT WITH WIND SHIFT TO WEST. PERHAPS A WEAKENING
OF WINDS NEAR DAWN TUESDAY...BUT THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO SCA LEVELS
DURING THE DAY.

NO MARINE HAZARDS TUESDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY WITH WIND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES. NO MARINE HAZARDS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ESE WINDS HAVE CAUSED WATER LEVELS TO RISE. MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AT ANNAPOLIS AND BALTIMORE FOR HIGH TIDES
MONDAY MORNING. WILL MONITOR RISES AT OTHER SITES. FLOW BECOMES
SWLY LATER TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SO THE COASTAL FLOOD
THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PAST HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AUDIO DEGRADATION AT THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO CHARLOTTESVILLE
TRANSMITTER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
TECHNICIANS ARE SCHEDULED TO PERFORM MAINTENANCE AT THE
TRANSMITTER SITE MONDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR DCZ001.
MD...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ004>006-011-
     013-014-503>508.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ011-
     014.
VA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ052>054-505-
     506.
WV...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ053.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ530>534-537>543.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ530>543.
     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ535.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ535-536.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADS
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...ADS/KLW
MARINE...ADS/KLW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ADS
EQUIPMENT...LWX



000
FXUS61 KLWX 200800
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES WILL
LIFT NORTH THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
REGION LATE MONDAY. AN UPPER LOW WILL THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...PRIMARY SFC LOW IS CENTERED OVER MI...WITH
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL VA. LLJ/UPPER JET STREAK
INDUCED MDT/HVY RAINFALL IS PIVOTING NE...WITH DRYING NOTED IN WV
IMAGERY. MOST OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL LIKELY EXIT TO THE NE BY
AROUND 8 AM IF NOT SOONER. HAVE CANCELLED THE FLOOD WATCH WHERE
HEAVY RAIN ENDED...AND WILL FOLLOW SUIT AS SOON AS THE REST EXITS.
A FEW LIGHTER SHOWERS MAY LINGER.

A WARM FRONT LOCATED OVER CENTRAL VA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY
LIFT TO THE NORTH...LEADING TO A RELATIVE DRY BREAK INTO THE MIDDAY
HOURS. HOW THE ATMOSPHERE IS ABLE TO RECOVER WILL DETERMINE SVR WX
CHANCES LATER TODAY. MAY TAKE LLVL CLOUDS A BIT TO SCOUR OUT...THEN
QUESTION BECOMES HOW MUCH MID/HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUD PERSISTS.
MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR HIGHS IN THE 70S...ALTHOUGH READINGS WILL
SOAR IF PROLONGED SUN DEVELOPS.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH...AIDED BY TERRAIN...DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE
STORMS WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. COVERAGE IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...BUT SCATTERED-NUMEROUS
SEEMS PLAUSIBLE. CONSISTENT INDICATIONS OF AROUND 1000 J/KG INSTBY
AND 30 KT BULK SHEAR WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS. THERE MAY BE SOME DISCRETE CELLS INITIALLY...EVENTUALLY
MORPHING INTO LINE SEGMENTS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DMGG
WINDS...ALTHOUGH STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL OF LARGE HAIL TOO. WHILE HODOGRAPHS NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE...THERE IS SOME LLVL VEERING AND A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF
A TORNADO FROM ANY STRONG DISCRETE CELLS. AT THIS TIME...NO AREA
OF THE CWA IS PARTICULARLY FAVORED...ALTHOUGH PARAMETERS MAY BE
SLIGHTLY BETTER EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.

STORMS WILL EXIT EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT
TRAILING THE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH WILL CROSS OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS MAY
LINGER LONGER IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS. TEMPS DROP INTO THE 40S
WEST...BUT SLOWER ADVECTION LIMITS LOWS TO THE 50S IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY WITH
WESTERLY FLOW LOCALLY. IT WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BUT
BREEZY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WILL HELP TEMPS RISE INTO THE 60S...WITH
NEAR 70 IN THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN ELONGATED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TUESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE RIDGES. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S.
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ADDITIONAL UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO AID IN
PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO COULD DEVELOP IN ANY ONE PORTION OF
THE REGION. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S WHILE
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP DOWN TO THE MIDDLE 40S...WITH
EXCEPTION TO THE UPPER 30S IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL EVOLVE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 7 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. THERE COULD BE A
FEW LINGERING RAIN OR PERHAPS A SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE HIGHER RIDGES
OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO A
SLIGHT UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY...MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION ONCE AGAIN. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO PASS ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF OUR CWA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

A FEW RAIN SHOWERS COULD STILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY BUT FOR THE MOST
PART HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO TAKE CONTROL BRIEFLY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT COULD SWING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MDT/LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL EXIT FROM S TO N EARLY THIS MORNING.
VSBYS WILL IMPROVE BUT QUESTIONABLE HOW QUICKLY MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL
SCOUR OUT...LIKELY BY MID/LATE MORNING. VFR LIKELY DURING MIDDAY
HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND COULD
CONTAIN STRONG WIND GUSTS/HAIL. COVERAGE/ORGANIZATION NOT EXPECTED
TO BE DEFINED ENOUGH TO PLACE SPECIFICS IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
SHIFT TO S THIS MORNING WITH WARM FRONT...THEN W WITH COLD FRONT
TONIGHT. GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND TUE AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT. MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM. VFR
CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
WINDS SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS TUESDAY NIGHT BECOMING WEST TO
NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS WEDNESDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THEN WEST TO NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOME GALE GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH DAWN WITH LLJ. WINDS THEN SHIFT
SOUTH WITH WARM FRONT FOR TODAY...REMAINING AT SCA LEVELS. STORMS
POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL. COLD
FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT WITH WIND SHIFT TO WEST. PERHAPS A WEAKENING
OF WINDS NEAR DAWN TUESDAY...BUT THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO SCA LEVELS
DURING THE DAY.

NO MARINE HAZARDS TUESDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY WITH WIND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES. NO MARINE HAZARDS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ESE WINDS HAVE CAUSED WATER LEVELS TO RISE. MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AT ANNAPOLIS AND BALTIMORE FOR HIGH TIDES
MONDAY MORNING. WILL MONITOR RISES AT OTHER SITES. FLOW BECOMES
SWLY LATER TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SO THE COASTAL FLOOD
THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PAST HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AUDIO DEGRADATION AT THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO CHARLOTTESVILLE
TRANSMITTER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
TECHNICIANS ARE SCHEDULED TO PERFORM MAINTENANCE AT THE
TRANSMITTER SITE MONDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR DCZ001.
MD...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ004>006-011-
     013-014-503>508.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ011-
     014.
VA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ052>054-505-
     506.
WV...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ053.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ530>534-537>543.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ530>543.
     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ535.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ535-536.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADS
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...ADS/KLW
MARINE...ADS/KLW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ADS
EQUIPMENT...LWX




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 200622
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
222 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER INDIANA WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTH INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT...PUSHING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE
LOCAL AREA. A COLD FRONT THEN CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWING DEEP SFC LOW ~995 MB OVER CENTRAL
INDIANA...WITH HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
SFC WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING IN FROM THE SE AND PUSHING
THROUGH NE NC AND WILL PROGRESS INTO SE VA OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS.
WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER THE ENTIRE REGION...EXCEPT IN THE MD ERN
SHORE...ALTHOUGH RAIN WILL BE MOVING IN THERE SHORTLY.
TEMPERATURES IN THE E/NE FLOW NORTH OF THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT
HAVE DIPPED INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/ERN
VA..AND DOWN TO 50 F AT OCEAN CITY MD. TEMPERATURES IN FAR SRN VA
AND NE NC ARE IN THE 60S. THUS FAR...INSTABILITY AND TSTMS HAVE
REMAINED SOUTH OF THE CWA NOW PUSHING INTO SRN/SE PORTIONS OF NC.
GIVEN SOMEWHAT OF AN IN-SITU WEDGE PATTERN...EXPECT THIS
CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE N/NE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HRS...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR TSTMS INTO AKQ CWA NOT ARRIVING FOR AT
LEAST A FEW MORE HRS (ABOUT 11 PM AT EARLIEST)...AND PRIMARILY
AFFECTING THE FAR SE ZONES. SEVERE WX MOST LIKELY STAYING SOUTH OF
THE CWA AS INSTABILITY TENDS TO SHIFT OFF THE ERN NC COAST INTO
THE GULF STREAM.

RAIN TOTALS SO FAR HAVE AVERAGED FROM ABOUT 0.25" TO 0.50" ACRS
CENTRAL AND SRN VA AND NE NC. BEST LIFT/FORCING AND INCREASING
LOW LEVEL THETA-E AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE YET TO
ARRIVE...SO A WIDESPREAD ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 0.75"
TO 1.50" IS ANTICIPATED. HAVE CONTD MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN (ALTHOUGH
DELAYED UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT ACRS THE NE). PCPN AMTS TO RMN BLO
6-12 HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE SO NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE
ISSUED. MAJORITY OF THE RAIN SHIFTS TO THE CST BY 12Z/20. THERE
WILL ALSO BE GUSTY ESE WINDS TO 20-30 MPH...HIGHEST NR THE CST.
ADDED AREAS OF FOG (VSBYS 1-3NM) OVR THE WTRS - AFT MDNGT...DUE
TO WARMER AIR SPREADING OVR COOLER WTRS. LOW TEMPS ARE OCCURRING
NOW IN MANY AREAS...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S MD ERN SHORE...TO THE
LOWER-MID 60S IN NE NC...WITH TEMPS STEADY TO SLOWLY RISING
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE AREA OF RAIN WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST MON MRNG...THEN CONCERN
SHIFTS TO A TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY LATE MON
AFTN/EVE (LIKELY LEADING TO SCT SHWRS/TSTMS). SPC CONTS TO PUT THE
AREA OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MON AFTN/EVE FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX IS CERTAINLY THERE GIVEN ML CAPE VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE...STEEP LAPSE
RATES...AND A MODEST SHEAR PROFILE. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT POSSIBLE
STRONG/ISOLD SVR STORMS IN THE HWO FOR LATE MON AFTN/EVE. OTW...VRB
CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY AND BREEZY/WARMER MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON. HI TEMPS
IN THE 70S AT THE CST...80 TO 85 ELSW.

COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FA MON NGT WITH CHC POPS...THEN
DRYING/COOLER WESTERLY FLOW TAKING OVR INTO TUE. PARTLY/MOSTLY
SUNNY TUE WITH HI TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO NR 70 AT THE
COAST...AND L/M70S ELSW.

HI PRES MOVES TO NR THE SE CONUS CST BY WED...PROVIDING WSW FLO
AND CONTG MILD WX. A WK TROUGH SFC-ALOFT WILL BE APPROACHING FM
THE WNW...WHICH MAY RESULT IN INCRSG CLDNS W AND N...ALG W/ PSBL
ISOLD/SCT SHRAS/TSTMS (HWVR WILL CAP POPS AT 14% THOSE AREAS FOR
NOW). LO TEMPS TUE NGT M40S W AND N TO FAR L50S SE. HI TEMPS WED
IN THE L/M70S N AND NW...TO M/U70S CNTRL/SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS UPPER
CLOSED LOW REMAINS IN VIC OF THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD...FAST MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATE
WEDS NIGHT-EARLY THURS MORNING. GFS CONTINUES TO REMAIN ON THE
SLOWER SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE WRT FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH THE ECMWF
QUICKER. BASED ON WLY FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BACK OVER THE
MIDWEST...OPTED TO REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDS NIGHT OVER
THE NRN AND NERN ZONES AND THEN THURS SOUTH AND EAST OF
RICHMOND...TRENDING SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE SLOWER GFS. HIGHS THURS
AROUND NORMAL...LOW-MID 60S. THEREAFTER...COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SWD FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE MIDWEST...EXTENDING INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRI. HIGHS FRI GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S NE TO
MID 60S SE UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND NWLY WINDS. SRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO LIFT INTO THE MIDWEST FRI NIGHT-SAT WITH
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW FORECAST TO PROGRESS EWD ALONG A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF STATES SAT. MOISTURE RETURNS SAT TO GO ALONG
WITH OVERRUNNING AND WEAK PERTURBATIONS ALOFT. INCREASED POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE N TO CHANCE S. HIGHS SAT GENERALLY AROUND 60 ACROSS
THE REGION. SFC LOW MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SAT NIGHT...WITH
ANY REMAINING PRECIP EXPECTED ACROSS THE SE LOCAL AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS SUN...BUT COOL CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S NE TO LOW 60S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS LIFTING NNE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS OF
06Z...WITH A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE PIEDMONT. A BAND OF
RAIN IS TRACKING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH EVEN A LINE OF CONVECTION OVER E-CENTRAL NC. CIGS
HAVE BEEN VARIABLE UP TO THIS TIME...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
AT IFR BETWEEN 07-10Z...WITH A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM SW-NE
BETWEEN 10-13Z. VSBY HAS BEEN VARIABLE AS WELL AND HAS LARGELY
BEEN IMPACTED BY THE INTENSITY OF THE RAIN. EXPECT VSBY TO AVERAGE
3-5SM...WITH 1-2SM IN HEAVIER RAIN AND ANY TSTMS. A SE WIND WILL
AVERAGE 15-20KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25KT AS THE FRONTAL RAIN BAND
PASSES THROUGH...AND THEN BECOME S AND DIMINISH TO 10-15KT THIS
MORNING. A MENTION OF LLWS HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AT SBY/PHF/ORF.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING CLOUD COVER ACTUALLY
SCATTERING OUT BY THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A GUSTY SW WIND. A
SECONDARY IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BRINGING A CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. ANY TSTMS COULD CONTAIN
STRONG WIND GUSTS. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST LATER
TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID MS
VALLEY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NE COAST AND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
LOCATED NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER. GRADIENT HAS RESULTED IN INCREASING
ELY WINDS OVER THE WATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SCA HEADLINES NOW IN
EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS. SPEEDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS HAVE BUILT
TO 6 FT IN THE NRN WATERS AND 3-4 FT ELSEWHERE. WAVES GENERALLY 2-3
FT. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT...WITH
SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THIS
IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR A SHORT DURATION (~3-5 HR) OF STRONG SCA
CONDITIONS IN SE FLOW. HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE
MIDNIGHT TO 4-5AM TIMEFRAME FOR THE STRONGEST SE WINDS OF 20-25 KT
WITH GUSTS OF 30 KT. BUMPED UP SEAS TO 6-9 FT (HIGHEST IN THE NRN
COASTAL WATERS) LATE TONIGHT. FOG ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS
TONIGHT AS WAA OCCURS OVER COOL WATER. GRADIENT WINDS DIMINISH MON
MORNING AS FLOW BECOMES SLY 10-15 KT. FAVORABLE FETCH/SWELL WILL
KEEP SEAS ELEVATED THRU THE DAY...BUT SUBSIDING TO 4 TO 6 FT. COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE MON...CROSSING THE REGION TUES
NIGHT. SLIGHT UPTICK IN SLY WINDS EXPECTED MON EVENING IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT...AROUND 15 KT IN THE BAY AND 20 KT COASTAL WATERS.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT...WITH STRONG GUSTY
WINDS POSSIBLE. SEAS SUBSIDE LAST MON NIGHT-TUES MORNING THANKS TO
WLY WINDS. SCA CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. HEADLINES
HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THRU 7AM TUES FOR COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF
PARRAMORE ISLAND AND THRU 1PM TUES NORTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AVG QPF 0.75-1.50"...LOCALLY UP TO 2.00" OVR MOST OF THE RIVER
BASINS WILL RESULT IN RIVER LVLS TO PSBLY RISE TO 1/2-NR FULL
BANKFULL TUE INTO WED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW TODAY FOLLOWED BY MODEST SE FLOW TONIGHT
WILL ALLOW TIDAL ANOMALIES TO BUILD TO ~1.0FT ABOVE NORMAL LATER
TONIGHT PRIMARILY IN THE MIDDLE BAY AND ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
OF THE MD/VA ERN SHORE. SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING
WILL HELP MAINTAIN ~1.0 FT ANOMALIES IN THE MIDDLE BAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY AS THE
FLOW BECOMES OFFSHORE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...SAM
HYDROLOGY...AKQ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 200622
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
222 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER INDIANA WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTH INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT...PUSHING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE
LOCAL AREA. A COLD FRONT THEN CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWING DEEP SFC LOW ~995 MB OVER CENTRAL
INDIANA...WITH HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
SFC WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING IN FROM THE SE AND PUSHING
THROUGH NE NC AND WILL PROGRESS INTO SE VA OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS.
WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER THE ENTIRE REGION...EXCEPT IN THE MD ERN
SHORE...ALTHOUGH RAIN WILL BE MOVING IN THERE SHORTLY.
TEMPERATURES IN THE E/NE FLOW NORTH OF THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT
HAVE DIPPED INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/ERN
VA..AND DOWN TO 50 F AT OCEAN CITY MD. TEMPERATURES IN FAR SRN VA
AND NE NC ARE IN THE 60S. THUS FAR...INSTABILITY AND TSTMS HAVE
REMAINED SOUTH OF THE CWA NOW PUSHING INTO SRN/SE PORTIONS OF NC.
GIVEN SOMEWHAT OF AN IN-SITU WEDGE PATTERN...EXPECT THIS
CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE N/NE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HRS...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR TSTMS INTO AKQ CWA NOT ARRIVING FOR AT
LEAST A FEW MORE HRS (ABOUT 11 PM AT EARLIEST)...AND PRIMARILY
AFFECTING THE FAR SE ZONES. SEVERE WX MOST LIKELY STAYING SOUTH OF
THE CWA AS INSTABILITY TENDS TO SHIFT OFF THE ERN NC COAST INTO
THE GULF STREAM.

RAIN TOTALS SO FAR HAVE AVERAGED FROM ABOUT 0.25" TO 0.50" ACRS
CENTRAL AND SRN VA AND NE NC. BEST LIFT/FORCING AND INCREASING
LOW LEVEL THETA-E AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE YET TO
ARRIVE...SO A WIDESPREAD ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 0.75"
TO 1.50" IS ANTICIPATED. HAVE CONTD MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN (ALTHOUGH
DELAYED UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT ACRS THE NE). PCPN AMTS TO RMN BLO
6-12 HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE SO NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE
ISSUED. MAJORITY OF THE RAIN SHIFTS TO THE CST BY 12Z/20. THERE
WILL ALSO BE GUSTY ESE WINDS TO 20-30 MPH...HIGHEST NR THE CST.
ADDED AREAS OF FOG (VSBYS 1-3NM) OVR THE WTRS - AFT MDNGT...DUE
TO WARMER AIR SPREADING OVR COOLER WTRS. LOW TEMPS ARE OCCURRING
NOW IN MANY AREAS...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S MD ERN SHORE...TO THE
LOWER-MID 60S IN NE NC...WITH TEMPS STEADY TO SLOWLY RISING
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE AREA OF RAIN WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST MON MRNG...THEN CONCERN
SHIFTS TO A TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY LATE MON
AFTN/EVE (LIKELY LEADING TO SCT SHWRS/TSTMS). SPC CONTS TO PUT THE
AREA OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MON AFTN/EVE FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX IS CERTAINLY THERE GIVEN ML CAPE VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE...STEEP LAPSE
RATES...AND A MODEST SHEAR PROFILE. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT POSSIBLE
STRONG/ISOLD SVR STORMS IN THE HWO FOR LATE MON AFTN/EVE. OTW...VRB
CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY AND BREEZY/WARMER MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON. HI TEMPS
IN THE 70S AT THE CST...80 TO 85 ELSW.

COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FA MON NGT WITH CHC POPS...THEN
DRYING/COOLER WESTERLY FLOW TAKING OVR INTO TUE. PARTLY/MOSTLY
SUNNY TUE WITH HI TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO NR 70 AT THE
COAST...AND L/M70S ELSW.

HI PRES MOVES TO NR THE SE CONUS CST BY WED...PROVIDING WSW FLO
AND CONTG MILD WX. A WK TROUGH SFC-ALOFT WILL BE APPROACHING FM
THE WNW...WHICH MAY RESULT IN INCRSG CLDNS W AND N...ALG W/ PSBL
ISOLD/SCT SHRAS/TSTMS (HWVR WILL CAP POPS AT 14% THOSE AREAS FOR
NOW). LO TEMPS TUE NGT M40S W AND N TO FAR L50S SE. HI TEMPS WED
IN THE L/M70S N AND NW...TO M/U70S CNTRL/SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS UPPER
CLOSED LOW REMAINS IN VIC OF THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD...FAST MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATE
WEDS NIGHT-EARLY THURS MORNING. GFS CONTINUES TO REMAIN ON THE
SLOWER SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE WRT FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH THE ECMWF
QUICKER. BASED ON WLY FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BACK OVER THE
MIDWEST...OPTED TO REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDS NIGHT OVER
THE NRN AND NERN ZONES AND THEN THURS SOUTH AND EAST OF
RICHMOND...TRENDING SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE SLOWER GFS. HIGHS THURS
AROUND NORMAL...LOW-MID 60S. THEREAFTER...COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SWD FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE MIDWEST...EXTENDING INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRI. HIGHS FRI GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S NE TO
MID 60S SE UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND NWLY WINDS. SRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO LIFT INTO THE MIDWEST FRI NIGHT-SAT WITH
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW FORECAST TO PROGRESS EWD ALONG A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF STATES SAT. MOISTURE RETURNS SAT TO GO ALONG
WITH OVERRUNNING AND WEAK PERTURBATIONS ALOFT. INCREASED POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE N TO CHANCE S. HIGHS SAT GENERALLY AROUND 60 ACROSS
THE REGION. SFC LOW MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SAT NIGHT...WITH
ANY REMAINING PRECIP EXPECTED ACROSS THE SE LOCAL AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS SUN...BUT COOL CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S NE TO LOW 60S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS LIFTING NNE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS OF
06Z...WITH A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE PIEDMONT. A BAND OF
RAIN IS TRACKING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH EVEN A LINE OF CONVECTION OVER E-CENTRAL NC. CIGS
HAVE BEEN VARIABLE UP TO THIS TIME...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
AT IFR BETWEEN 07-10Z...WITH A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM SW-NE
BETWEEN 10-13Z. VSBY HAS BEEN VARIABLE AS WELL AND HAS LARGELY
BEEN IMPACTED BY THE INTENSITY OF THE RAIN. EXPECT VSBY TO AVERAGE
3-5SM...WITH 1-2SM IN HEAVIER RAIN AND ANY TSTMS. A SE WIND WILL
AVERAGE 15-20KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25KT AS THE FRONTAL RAIN BAND
PASSES THROUGH...AND THEN BECOME S AND DIMINISH TO 10-15KT THIS
MORNING. A MENTION OF LLWS HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AT SBY/PHF/ORF.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING CLOUD COVER ACTUALLY
SCATTERING OUT BY THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A GUSTY SW WIND. A
SECONDARY IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BRINGING A CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. ANY TSTMS COULD CONTAIN
STRONG WIND GUSTS. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST LATER
TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID MS
VALLEY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NE COAST AND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
LOCATED NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER. GRADIENT HAS RESULTED IN INCREASING
ELY WINDS OVER THE WATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SCA HEADLINES NOW IN
EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS. SPEEDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS HAVE BUILT
TO 6 FT IN THE NRN WATERS AND 3-4 FT ELSEWHERE. WAVES GENERALLY 2-3
FT. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT...WITH
SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THIS
IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR A SHORT DURATION (~3-5 HR) OF STRONG SCA
CONDITIONS IN SE FLOW. HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE
MIDNIGHT TO 4-5AM TIMEFRAME FOR THE STRONGEST SE WINDS OF 20-25 KT
WITH GUSTS OF 30 KT. BUMPED UP SEAS TO 6-9 FT (HIGHEST IN THE NRN
COASTAL WATERS) LATE TONIGHT. FOG ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS
TONIGHT AS WAA OCCURS OVER COOL WATER. GRADIENT WINDS DIMINISH MON
MORNING AS FLOW BECOMES SLY 10-15 KT. FAVORABLE FETCH/SWELL WILL
KEEP SEAS ELEVATED THRU THE DAY...BUT SUBSIDING TO 4 TO 6 FT. COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE MON...CROSSING THE REGION TUES
NIGHT. SLIGHT UPTICK IN SLY WINDS EXPECTED MON EVENING IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT...AROUND 15 KT IN THE BAY AND 20 KT COASTAL WATERS.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT...WITH STRONG GUSTY
WINDS POSSIBLE. SEAS SUBSIDE LAST MON NIGHT-TUES MORNING THANKS TO
WLY WINDS. SCA CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. HEADLINES
HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THRU 7AM TUES FOR COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF
PARRAMORE ISLAND AND THRU 1PM TUES NORTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AVG QPF 0.75-1.50"...LOCALLY UP TO 2.00" OVR MOST OF THE RIVER
BASINS WILL RESULT IN RIVER LVLS TO PSBLY RISE TO 1/2-NR FULL
BANKFULL TUE INTO WED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW TODAY FOLLOWED BY MODEST SE FLOW TONIGHT
WILL ALLOW TIDAL ANOMALIES TO BUILD TO ~1.0FT ABOVE NORMAL LATER
TONIGHT PRIMARILY IN THE MIDDLE BAY AND ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
OF THE MD/VA ERN SHORE. SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING
WILL HELP MAINTAIN ~1.0 FT ANOMALIES IN THE MIDDLE BAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY AS THE
FLOW BECOMES OFFSHORE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...SAM
HYDROLOGY...AKQ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 200622
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
222 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER INDIANA WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTH INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT...PUSHING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE
LOCAL AREA. A COLD FRONT THEN CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWING DEEP SFC LOW ~995 MB OVER CENTRAL
INDIANA...WITH HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
SFC WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING IN FROM THE SE AND PUSHING
THROUGH NE NC AND WILL PROGRESS INTO SE VA OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS.
WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER THE ENTIRE REGION...EXCEPT IN THE MD ERN
SHORE...ALTHOUGH RAIN WILL BE MOVING IN THERE SHORTLY.
TEMPERATURES IN THE E/NE FLOW NORTH OF THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT
HAVE DIPPED INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/ERN
VA..AND DOWN TO 50 F AT OCEAN CITY MD. TEMPERATURES IN FAR SRN VA
AND NE NC ARE IN THE 60S. THUS FAR...INSTABILITY AND TSTMS HAVE
REMAINED SOUTH OF THE CWA NOW PUSHING INTO SRN/SE PORTIONS OF NC.
GIVEN SOMEWHAT OF AN IN-SITU WEDGE PATTERN...EXPECT THIS
CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE N/NE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HRS...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR TSTMS INTO AKQ CWA NOT ARRIVING FOR AT
LEAST A FEW MORE HRS (ABOUT 11 PM AT EARLIEST)...AND PRIMARILY
AFFECTING THE FAR SE ZONES. SEVERE WX MOST LIKELY STAYING SOUTH OF
THE CWA AS INSTABILITY TENDS TO SHIFT OFF THE ERN NC COAST INTO
THE GULF STREAM.

RAIN TOTALS SO FAR HAVE AVERAGED FROM ABOUT 0.25" TO 0.50" ACRS
CENTRAL AND SRN VA AND NE NC. BEST LIFT/FORCING AND INCREASING
LOW LEVEL THETA-E AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE YET TO
ARRIVE...SO A WIDESPREAD ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 0.75"
TO 1.50" IS ANTICIPATED. HAVE CONTD MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN (ALTHOUGH
DELAYED UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT ACRS THE NE). PCPN AMTS TO RMN BLO
6-12 HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE SO NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE
ISSUED. MAJORITY OF THE RAIN SHIFTS TO THE CST BY 12Z/20. THERE
WILL ALSO BE GUSTY ESE WINDS TO 20-30 MPH...HIGHEST NR THE CST.
ADDED AREAS OF FOG (VSBYS 1-3NM) OVR THE WTRS - AFT MDNGT...DUE
TO WARMER AIR SPREADING OVR COOLER WTRS. LOW TEMPS ARE OCCURRING
NOW IN MANY AREAS...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S MD ERN SHORE...TO THE
LOWER-MID 60S IN NE NC...WITH TEMPS STEADY TO SLOWLY RISING
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE AREA OF RAIN WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST MON MRNG...THEN CONCERN
SHIFTS TO A TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY LATE MON
AFTN/EVE (LIKELY LEADING TO SCT SHWRS/TSTMS). SPC CONTS TO PUT THE
AREA OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MON AFTN/EVE FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX IS CERTAINLY THERE GIVEN ML CAPE VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE...STEEP LAPSE
RATES...AND A MODEST SHEAR PROFILE. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT POSSIBLE
STRONG/ISOLD SVR STORMS IN THE HWO FOR LATE MON AFTN/EVE. OTW...VRB
CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY AND BREEZY/WARMER MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON. HI TEMPS
IN THE 70S AT THE CST...80 TO 85 ELSW.

COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FA MON NGT WITH CHC POPS...THEN
DRYING/COOLER WESTERLY FLOW TAKING OVR INTO TUE. PARTLY/MOSTLY
SUNNY TUE WITH HI TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO NR 70 AT THE
COAST...AND L/M70S ELSW.

HI PRES MOVES TO NR THE SE CONUS CST BY WED...PROVIDING WSW FLO
AND CONTG MILD WX. A WK TROUGH SFC-ALOFT WILL BE APPROACHING FM
THE WNW...WHICH MAY RESULT IN INCRSG CLDNS W AND N...ALG W/ PSBL
ISOLD/SCT SHRAS/TSTMS (HWVR WILL CAP POPS AT 14% THOSE AREAS FOR
NOW). LO TEMPS TUE NGT M40S W AND N TO FAR L50S SE. HI TEMPS WED
IN THE L/M70S N AND NW...TO M/U70S CNTRL/SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS UPPER
CLOSED LOW REMAINS IN VIC OF THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD...FAST MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATE
WEDS NIGHT-EARLY THURS MORNING. GFS CONTINUES TO REMAIN ON THE
SLOWER SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE WRT FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH THE ECMWF
QUICKER. BASED ON WLY FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BACK OVER THE
MIDWEST...OPTED TO REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDS NIGHT OVER
THE NRN AND NERN ZONES AND THEN THURS SOUTH AND EAST OF
RICHMOND...TRENDING SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE SLOWER GFS. HIGHS THURS
AROUND NORMAL...LOW-MID 60S. THEREAFTER...COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SWD FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE MIDWEST...EXTENDING INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRI. HIGHS FRI GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S NE TO
MID 60S SE UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND NWLY WINDS. SRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO LIFT INTO THE MIDWEST FRI NIGHT-SAT WITH
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW FORECAST TO PROGRESS EWD ALONG A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF STATES SAT. MOISTURE RETURNS SAT TO GO ALONG
WITH OVERRUNNING AND WEAK PERTURBATIONS ALOFT. INCREASED POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE N TO CHANCE S. HIGHS SAT GENERALLY AROUND 60 ACROSS
THE REGION. SFC LOW MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SAT NIGHT...WITH
ANY REMAINING PRECIP EXPECTED ACROSS THE SE LOCAL AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS SUN...BUT COOL CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S NE TO LOW 60S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS LIFTING NNE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS OF
06Z...WITH A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE PIEDMONT. A BAND OF
RAIN IS TRACKING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH EVEN A LINE OF CONVECTION OVER E-CENTRAL NC. CIGS
HAVE BEEN VARIABLE UP TO THIS TIME...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
AT IFR BETWEEN 07-10Z...WITH A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM SW-NE
BETWEEN 10-13Z. VSBY HAS BEEN VARIABLE AS WELL AND HAS LARGELY
BEEN IMPACTED BY THE INTENSITY OF THE RAIN. EXPECT VSBY TO AVERAGE
3-5SM...WITH 1-2SM IN HEAVIER RAIN AND ANY TSTMS. A SE WIND WILL
AVERAGE 15-20KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25KT AS THE FRONTAL RAIN BAND
PASSES THROUGH...AND THEN BECOME S AND DIMINISH TO 10-15KT THIS
MORNING. A MENTION OF LLWS HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AT SBY/PHF/ORF.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING CLOUD COVER ACTUALLY
SCATTERING OUT BY THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A GUSTY SW WIND. A
SECONDARY IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BRINGING A CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. ANY TSTMS COULD CONTAIN
STRONG WIND GUSTS. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST LATER
TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID MS
VALLEY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NE COAST AND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
LOCATED NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER. GRADIENT HAS RESULTED IN INCREASING
ELY WINDS OVER THE WATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SCA HEADLINES NOW IN
EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS. SPEEDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS HAVE BUILT
TO 6 FT IN THE NRN WATERS AND 3-4 FT ELSEWHERE. WAVES GENERALLY 2-3
FT. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT...WITH
SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THIS
IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR A SHORT DURATION (~3-5 HR) OF STRONG SCA
CONDITIONS IN SE FLOW. HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE
MIDNIGHT TO 4-5AM TIMEFRAME FOR THE STRONGEST SE WINDS OF 20-25 KT
WITH GUSTS OF 30 KT. BUMPED UP SEAS TO 6-9 FT (HIGHEST IN THE NRN
COASTAL WATERS) LATE TONIGHT. FOG ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS
TONIGHT AS WAA OCCURS OVER COOL WATER. GRADIENT WINDS DIMINISH MON
MORNING AS FLOW BECOMES SLY 10-15 KT. FAVORABLE FETCH/SWELL WILL
KEEP SEAS ELEVATED THRU THE DAY...BUT SUBSIDING TO 4 TO 6 FT. COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE MON...CROSSING THE REGION TUES
NIGHT. SLIGHT UPTICK IN SLY WINDS EXPECTED MON EVENING IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT...AROUND 15 KT IN THE BAY AND 20 KT COASTAL WATERS.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT...WITH STRONG GUSTY
WINDS POSSIBLE. SEAS SUBSIDE LAST MON NIGHT-TUES MORNING THANKS TO
WLY WINDS. SCA CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. HEADLINES
HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THRU 7AM TUES FOR COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF
PARRAMORE ISLAND AND THRU 1PM TUES NORTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AVG QPF 0.75-1.50"...LOCALLY UP TO 2.00" OVR MOST OF THE RIVER
BASINS WILL RESULT IN RIVER LVLS TO PSBLY RISE TO 1/2-NR FULL
BANKFULL TUE INTO WED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW TODAY FOLLOWED BY MODEST SE FLOW TONIGHT
WILL ALLOW TIDAL ANOMALIES TO BUILD TO ~1.0FT ABOVE NORMAL LATER
TONIGHT PRIMARILY IN THE MIDDLE BAY AND ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
OF THE MD/VA ERN SHORE. SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING
WILL HELP MAINTAIN ~1.0 FT ANOMALIES IN THE MIDDLE BAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY AS THE
FLOW BECOMES OFFSHORE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...SAM
HYDROLOGY...AKQ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 200622
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
222 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER INDIANA WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTH INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT...PUSHING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE
LOCAL AREA. A COLD FRONT THEN CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWING DEEP SFC LOW ~995 MB OVER CENTRAL
INDIANA...WITH HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
SFC WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING IN FROM THE SE AND PUSHING
THROUGH NE NC AND WILL PROGRESS INTO SE VA OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS.
WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER THE ENTIRE REGION...EXCEPT IN THE MD ERN
SHORE...ALTHOUGH RAIN WILL BE MOVING IN THERE SHORTLY.
TEMPERATURES IN THE E/NE FLOW NORTH OF THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT
HAVE DIPPED INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/ERN
VA..AND DOWN TO 50 F AT OCEAN CITY MD. TEMPERATURES IN FAR SRN VA
AND NE NC ARE IN THE 60S. THUS FAR...INSTABILITY AND TSTMS HAVE
REMAINED SOUTH OF THE CWA NOW PUSHING INTO SRN/SE PORTIONS OF NC.
GIVEN SOMEWHAT OF AN IN-SITU WEDGE PATTERN...EXPECT THIS
CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE N/NE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HRS...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR TSTMS INTO AKQ CWA NOT ARRIVING FOR AT
LEAST A FEW MORE HRS (ABOUT 11 PM AT EARLIEST)...AND PRIMARILY
AFFECTING THE FAR SE ZONES. SEVERE WX MOST LIKELY STAYING SOUTH OF
THE CWA AS INSTABILITY TENDS TO SHIFT OFF THE ERN NC COAST INTO
THE GULF STREAM.

RAIN TOTALS SO FAR HAVE AVERAGED FROM ABOUT 0.25" TO 0.50" ACRS
CENTRAL AND SRN VA AND NE NC. BEST LIFT/FORCING AND INCREASING
LOW LEVEL THETA-E AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE YET TO
ARRIVE...SO A WIDESPREAD ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 0.75"
TO 1.50" IS ANTICIPATED. HAVE CONTD MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN (ALTHOUGH
DELAYED UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT ACRS THE NE). PCPN AMTS TO RMN BLO
6-12 HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE SO NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE
ISSUED. MAJORITY OF THE RAIN SHIFTS TO THE CST BY 12Z/20. THERE
WILL ALSO BE GUSTY ESE WINDS TO 20-30 MPH...HIGHEST NR THE CST.
ADDED AREAS OF FOG (VSBYS 1-3NM) OVR THE WTRS - AFT MDNGT...DUE
TO WARMER AIR SPREADING OVR COOLER WTRS. LOW TEMPS ARE OCCURRING
NOW IN MANY AREAS...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S MD ERN SHORE...TO THE
LOWER-MID 60S IN NE NC...WITH TEMPS STEADY TO SLOWLY RISING
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE AREA OF RAIN WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST MON MRNG...THEN CONCERN
SHIFTS TO A TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY LATE MON
AFTN/EVE (LIKELY LEADING TO SCT SHWRS/TSTMS). SPC CONTS TO PUT THE
AREA OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MON AFTN/EVE FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX IS CERTAINLY THERE GIVEN ML CAPE VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE...STEEP LAPSE
RATES...AND A MODEST SHEAR PROFILE. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT POSSIBLE
STRONG/ISOLD SVR STORMS IN THE HWO FOR LATE MON AFTN/EVE. OTW...VRB
CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY AND BREEZY/WARMER MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON. HI TEMPS
IN THE 70S AT THE CST...80 TO 85 ELSW.

COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FA MON NGT WITH CHC POPS...THEN
DRYING/COOLER WESTERLY FLOW TAKING OVR INTO TUE. PARTLY/MOSTLY
SUNNY TUE WITH HI TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO NR 70 AT THE
COAST...AND L/M70S ELSW.

HI PRES MOVES TO NR THE SE CONUS CST BY WED...PROVIDING WSW FLO
AND CONTG MILD WX. A WK TROUGH SFC-ALOFT WILL BE APPROACHING FM
THE WNW...WHICH MAY RESULT IN INCRSG CLDNS W AND N...ALG W/ PSBL
ISOLD/SCT SHRAS/TSTMS (HWVR WILL CAP POPS AT 14% THOSE AREAS FOR
NOW). LO TEMPS TUE NGT M40S W AND N TO FAR L50S SE. HI TEMPS WED
IN THE L/M70S N AND NW...TO M/U70S CNTRL/SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS UPPER
CLOSED LOW REMAINS IN VIC OF THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD...FAST MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATE
WEDS NIGHT-EARLY THURS MORNING. GFS CONTINUES TO REMAIN ON THE
SLOWER SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE WRT FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH THE ECMWF
QUICKER. BASED ON WLY FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BACK OVER THE
MIDWEST...OPTED TO REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDS NIGHT OVER
THE NRN AND NERN ZONES AND THEN THURS SOUTH AND EAST OF
RICHMOND...TRENDING SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE SLOWER GFS. HIGHS THURS
AROUND NORMAL...LOW-MID 60S. THEREAFTER...COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SWD FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE MIDWEST...EXTENDING INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRI. HIGHS FRI GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S NE TO
MID 60S SE UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND NWLY WINDS. SRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO LIFT INTO THE MIDWEST FRI NIGHT-SAT WITH
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW FORECAST TO PROGRESS EWD ALONG A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF STATES SAT. MOISTURE RETURNS SAT TO GO ALONG
WITH OVERRUNNING AND WEAK PERTURBATIONS ALOFT. INCREASED POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE N TO CHANCE S. HIGHS SAT GENERALLY AROUND 60 ACROSS
THE REGION. SFC LOW MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SAT NIGHT...WITH
ANY REMAINING PRECIP EXPECTED ACROSS THE SE LOCAL AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS SUN...BUT COOL CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S NE TO LOW 60S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS LIFTING NNE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS OF
06Z...WITH A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE PIEDMONT. A BAND OF
RAIN IS TRACKING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH EVEN A LINE OF CONVECTION OVER E-CENTRAL NC. CIGS
HAVE BEEN VARIABLE UP TO THIS TIME...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
AT IFR BETWEEN 07-10Z...WITH A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM SW-NE
BETWEEN 10-13Z. VSBY HAS BEEN VARIABLE AS WELL AND HAS LARGELY
BEEN IMPACTED BY THE INTENSITY OF THE RAIN. EXPECT VSBY TO AVERAGE
3-5SM...WITH 1-2SM IN HEAVIER RAIN AND ANY TSTMS. A SE WIND WILL
AVERAGE 15-20KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25KT AS THE FRONTAL RAIN BAND
PASSES THROUGH...AND THEN BECOME S AND DIMINISH TO 10-15KT THIS
MORNING. A MENTION OF LLWS HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AT SBY/PHF/ORF.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING CLOUD COVER ACTUALLY
SCATTERING OUT BY THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A GUSTY SW WIND. A
SECONDARY IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BRINGING A CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. ANY TSTMS COULD CONTAIN
STRONG WIND GUSTS. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST LATER
TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID MS
VALLEY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NE COAST AND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
LOCATED NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER. GRADIENT HAS RESULTED IN INCREASING
ELY WINDS OVER THE WATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SCA HEADLINES NOW IN
EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS. SPEEDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS HAVE BUILT
TO 6 FT IN THE NRN WATERS AND 3-4 FT ELSEWHERE. WAVES GENERALLY 2-3
FT. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT...WITH
SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THIS
IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR A SHORT DURATION (~3-5 HR) OF STRONG SCA
CONDITIONS IN SE FLOW. HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE
MIDNIGHT TO 4-5AM TIMEFRAME FOR THE STRONGEST SE WINDS OF 20-25 KT
WITH GUSTS OF 30 KT. BUMPED UP SEAS TO 6-9 FT (HIGHEST IN THE NRN
COASTAL WATERS) LATE TONIGHT. FOG ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS
TONIGHT AS WAA OCCURS OVER COOL WATER. GRADIENT WINDS DIMINISH MON
MORNING AS FLOW BECOMES SLY 10-15 KT. FAVORABLE FETCH/SWELL WILL
KEEP SEAS ELEVATED THRU THE DAY...BUT SUBSIDING TO 4 TO 6 FT. COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE MON...CROSSING THE REGION TUES
NIGHT. SLIGHT UPTICK IN SLY WINDS EXPECTED MON EVENING IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT...AROUND 15 KT IN THE BAY AND 20 KT COASTAL WATERS.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT...WITH STRONG GUSTY
WINDS POSSIBLE. SEAS SUBSIDE LAST MON NIGHT-TUES MORNING THANKS TO
WLY WINDS. SCA CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. HEADLINES
HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THRU 7AM TUES FOR COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF
PARRAMORE ISLAND AND THRU 1PM TUES NORTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AVG QPF 0.75-1.50"...LOCALLY UP TO 2.00" OVR MOST OF THE RIVER
BASINS WILL RESULT IN RIVER LVLS TO PSBLY RISE TO 1/2-NR FULL
BANKFULL TUE INTO WED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW TODAY FOLLOWED BY MODEST SE FLOW TONIGHT
WILL ALLOW TIDAL ANOMALIES TO BUILD TO ~1.0FT ABOVE NORMAL LATER
TONIGHT PRIMARILY IN THE MIDDLE BAY AND ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
OF THE MD/VA ERN SHORE. SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING
WILL HELP MAINTAIN ~1.0 FT ANOMALIES IN THE MIDDLE BAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY AS THE
FLOW BECOMES OFFSHORE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...SAM
HYDROLOGY...AKQ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ



000
FXUS61 KRNK 200510
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
110 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST
AND COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON
MONDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT MONDAY...

HEAVY RAIN HAS MOVED NORTH OF THE AREA...THEREFORE THE FLOOD WATCH
HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 333 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH THIS EVENING AND CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE AND HIGHER PWATS WILL
INCREASE IN THE WARM ADVECTION WITH THE NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. THE REGIONAL RADAR IMAGE SHOWED WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTHEAST US. THERE ARE
SOME CONCERNS OF STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON MAY
TAKE SOME OF THE MOISTURE AWAY FROM OUR AREA. OUR LOCAL RNK
WRFARW...HIRESW-ARW...NAM AND GFS WAIT UNTIL AFTER 00Z BEFORE
BRINGING IN HEAVIER CONVECTION THIS EVENING...WHILE HRRR AND ECMWF
ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH TIMING. THE HRRR AND HIRESW-ARW LIFTS THE
PRECIPITATION NORTHEAST WITH MOST OF RAIN PULLING OUT BY 06-08Z.
USED A BLEND OF HRRR AND NAM FOR POPS...TAPERING POPS BACK AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
WITH CLOUD COVER HINDERING INSTABILITIES. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL
JET INCREASING TO 50-60 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL RESULT IN
STRONG UPSLOPE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE STRONG WINDS THROUGH A
DEEP LAYER WILL PROVIDE LARGE HELICITY VALUES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. THE DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK (SWODY1) PLACED
A MARGINAL (5 PERCENT CHANCE OF WIND) ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
CWA. PLAYED LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO ADJMAV WITH READINGS FROM
THE UPPER 40S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN
THE PIEDMONT.

A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXPECTED MONDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MONDAY. INITIALLY CUT BACK POPS CLOSER
TO NAM FOR MONDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASED TO LIKELY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SPC CONTINUES OUR SLIGHT RISK FOR MONDAY ACROSS MOST OF
OUR CWA. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE DYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH HEALTHY
SHEAR AND DECENT CAPES AROUND 2K.  IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE BREEZY WITH
EFFICIENT DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER IN A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.
THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLEARING MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT SUNDAY...

TAIL END OF COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL BE EXITING
THE AREA JUST AFT 00Z. HOWEVER...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH...ALMOST
WINTERLIKE PATTERN CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AND DEEPEN ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WITH NUMEROUS SPOKES OF PVA/SHORT WAVES REMAINING
UPSTREAM. THIS LEAVES THE REGION...ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
A VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN. AT A MINIMUM...EXPECT VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS. TIMING OF EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL BE THE KEY TO THE
TIMES FOR THE BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS. FOR SEVERAL DAYS...THE
GFS HAS INSISTED ON A SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION WED WITH WIDESPREAD -SHRA AS A RESULT. THE OTHER MODELS
REMAIN LACKLUSTER WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT DO SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME
SMALL CHANCE WITHIN THIS TIME FRAME. GIVEN THE UNSETTLED NATURE OF
THE PATTERN WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME UPPER
DISTURBANCES...CANNOT REALLY DROP POPS AT ANY TIME. BEST FOCUS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF WV/FAR SW VA. IN
ADDITION...ENOUGH INSTABILITY SUGGESTED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT...TO
INTRODUCE ISOLD TSRA WITH THE WED DISTURBANCE AS WELL.

850MB TEMPS DROP TO NEAR 0C ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY WED...BUT THE BETTER COLD ADVECTION COMES IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD BEHIND THE WED DISTURBANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...

BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE AND DOMINATES THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...GRADUALLY SHIFTING FURTHER ESE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
THIS KEEPS THE REGION IN AN UNSTABLE/UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW WITH
NUMEROUS EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES. MODELS VARY CONSIDERABLY AS TO THE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE DISTURBANCES...BUT ENOUGH AGREEMENT
THAT POPS CANNOT BE DROPPED REALLY AT ANY TIME THE OVERALL TREND
IS TO PUSH THE BETTER MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES AND 850MB TEMPS DROP BELOW 0C IN THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES. THE ENTIRE PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH LOW CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WITH THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT THE
DRIEST. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...NO REAL CLEAR CONCERN AT THIS POINT FOR FROST/FREEZE
BECAUSE OF CYCLONIC FLOW AND CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 110 AM EDT MONDAY...

BULK OF THE RAIN IS HEADING NORTH OF THE AREA WITH THE WIND BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY AS LIGHT RAIN
TRACKS TO THE NORTH BY 08Z...THEN CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR
WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER...DEFINITELY BY 12Z MONDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT. PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL BRING BREEZY AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO THE AREA INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION...

VFR RETURNS LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS.

THEN THE NEXT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE
IN THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/KK
NEAR TERM...KK/RCS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS/KK/RCS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 200510
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
110 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST
AND COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON
MONDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT MONDAY...

HEAVY RAIN HAS MOVED NORTH OF THE AREA...THEREFORE THE FLOOD WATCH
HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 333 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH THIS EVENING AND CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE AND HIGHER PWATS WILL
INCREASE IN THE WARM ADVECTION WITH THE NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. THE REGIONAL RADAR IMAGE SHOWED WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTHEAST US. THERE ARE
SOME CONCERNS OF STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON MAY
TAKE SOME OF THE MOISTURE AWAY FROM OUR AREA. OUR LOCAL RNK
WRFARW...HIRESW-ARW...NAM AND GFS WAIT UNTIL AFTER 00Z BEFORE
BRINGING IN HEAVIER CONVECTION THIS EVENING...WHILE HRRR AND ECMWF
ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH TIMING. THE HRRR AND HIRESW-ARW LIFTS THE
PRECIPITATION NORTHEAST WITH MOST OF RAIN PULLING OUT BY 06-08Z.
USED A BLEND OF HRRR AND NAM FOR POPS...TAPERING POPS BACK AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
WITH CLOUD COVER HINDERING INSTABILITIES. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL
JET INCREASING TO 50-60 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL RESULT IN
STRONG UPSLOPE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE STRONG WINDS THROUGH A
DEEP LAYER WILL PROVIDE LARGE HELICITY VALUES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. THE DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK (SWODY1) PLACED
A MARGINAL (5 PERCENT CHANCE OF WIND) ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
CWA. PLAYED LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO ADJMAV WITH READINGS FROM
THE UPPER 40S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN
THE PIEDMONT.

A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXPECTED MONDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MONDAY. INITIALLY CUT BACK POPS CLOSER
TO NAM FOR MONDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASED TO LIKELY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SPC CONTINUES OUR SLIGHT RISK FOR MONDAY ACROSS MOST OF
OUR CWA. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE DYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH HEALTHY
SHEAR AND DECENT CAPES AROUND 2K.  IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE BREEZY WITH
EFFICIENT DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER IN A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.
THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLEARING MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT SUNDAY...

TAIL END OF COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL BE EXITING
THE AREA JUST AFT 00Z. HOWEVER...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH...ALMOST
WINTERLIKE PATTERN CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AND DEEPEN ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WITH NUMEROUS SPOKES OF PVA/SHORT WAVES REMAINING
UPSTREAM. THIS LEAVES THE REGION...ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
A VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN. AT A MINIMUM...EXPECT VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS. TIMING OF EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL BE THE KEY TO THE
TIMES FOR THE BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS. FOR SEVERAL DAYS...THE
GFS HAS INSISTED ON A SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION WED WITH WIDESPREAD -SHRA AS A RESULT. THE OTHER MODELS
REMAIN LACKLUSTER WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT DO SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME
SMALL CHANCE WITHIN THIS TIME FRAME. GIVEN THE UNSETTLED NATURE OF
THE PATTERN WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME UPPER
DISTURBANCES...CANNOT REALLY DROP POPS AT ANY TIME. BEST FOCUS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF WV/FAR SW VA. IN
ADDITION...ENOUGH INSTABILITY SUGGESTED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT...TO
INTRODUCE ISOLD TSRA WITH THE WED DISTURBANCE AS WELL.

850MB TEMPS DROP TO NEAR 0C ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY WED...BUT THE BETTER COLD ADVECTION COMES IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD BEHIND THE WED DISTURBANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...

BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE AND DOMINATES THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...GRADUALLY SHIFTING FURTHER ESE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
THIS KEEPS THE REGION IN AN UNSTABLE/UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW WITH
NUMEROUS EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES. MODELS VARY CONSIDERABLY AS TO THE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE DISTURBANCES...BUT ENOUGH AGREEMENT
THAT POPS CANNOT BE DROPPED REALLY AT ANY TIME THE OVERALL TREND
IS TO PUSH THE BETTER MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES AND 850MB TEMPS DROP BELOW 0C IN THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES. THE ENTIRE PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH LOW CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WITH THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT THE
DRIEST. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...NO REAL CLEAR CONCERN AT THIS POINT FOR FROST/FREEZE
BECAUSE OF CYCLONIC FLOW AND CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 110 AM EDT MONDAY...

BULK OF THE RAIN IS HEADING NORTH OF THE AREA WITH THE WIND BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY AS LIGHT RAIN
TRACKS TO THE NORTH BY 08Z...THEN CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR
WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER...DEFINITELY BY 12Z MONDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT. PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL BRING BREEZY AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO THE AREA INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION...

VFR RETURNS LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS.

THEN THE NEXT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE
IN THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/KK
NEAR TERM...KK/RCS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS/KK/RCS



000
FXUS61 KRNK 200510
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
110 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST
AND COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON
MONDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT MONDAY...

HEAVY RAIN HAS MOVED NORTH OF THE AREA...THEREFORE THE FLOOD WATCH
HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 333 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH THIS EVENING AND CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE AND HIGHER PWATS WILL
INCREASE IN THE WARM ADVECTION WITH THE NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. THE REGIONAL RADAR IMAGE SHOWED WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTHEAST US. THERE ARE
SOME CONCERNS OF STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON MAY
TAKE SOME OF THE MOISTURE AWAY FROM OUR AREA. OUR LOCAL RNK
WRFARW...HIRESW-ARW...NAM AND GFS WAIT UNTIL AFTER 00Z BEFORE
BRINGING IN HEAVIER CONVECTION THIS EVENING...WHILE HRRR AND ECMWF
ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH TIMING. THE HRRR AND HIRESW-ARW LIFTS THE
PRECIPITATION NORTHEAST WITH MOST OF RAIN PULLING OUT BY 06-08Z.
USED A BLEND OF HRRR AND NAM FOR POPS...TAPERING POPS BACK AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
WITH CLOUD COVER HINDERING INSTABILITIES. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL
JET INCREASING TO 50-60 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL RESULT IN
STRONG UPSLOPE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE STRONG WINDS THROUGH A
DEEP LAYER WILL PROVIDE LARGE HELICITY VALUES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. THE DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK (SWODY1) PLACED
A MARGINAL (5 PERCENT CHANCE OF WIND) ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
CWA. PLAYED LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO ADJMAV WITH READINGS FROM
THE UPPER 40S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN
THE PIEDMONT.

A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXPECTED MONDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MONDAY. INITIALLY CUT BACK POPS CLOSER
TO NAM FOR MONDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASED TO LIKELY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SPC CONTINUES OUR SLIGHT RISK FOR MONDAY ACROSS MOST OF
OUR CWA. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE DYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH HEALTHY
SHEAR AND DECENT CAPES AROUND 2K.  IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE BREEZY WITH
EFFICIENT DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER IN A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.
THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLEARING MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT SUNDAY...

TAIL END OF COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL BE EXITING
THE AREA JUST AFT 00Z. HOWEVER...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH...ALMOST
WINTERLIKE PATTERN CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AND DEEPEN ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WITH NUMEROUS SPOKES OF PVA/SHORT WAVES REMAINING
UPSTREAM. THIS LEAVES THE REGION...ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
A VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN. AT A MINIMUM...EXPECT VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS. TIMING OF EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL BE THE KEY TO THE
TIMES FOR THE BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS. FOR SEVERAL DAYS...THE
GFS HAS INSISTED ON A SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION WED WITH WIDESPREAD -SHRA AS A RESULT. THE OTHER MODELS
REMAIN LACKLUSTER WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT DO SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME
SMALL CHANCE WITHIN THIS TIME FRAME. GIVEN THE UNSETTLED NATURE OF
THE PATTERN WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME UPPER
DISTURBANCES...CANNOT REALLY DROP POPS AT ANY TIME. BEST FOCUS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF WV/FAR SW VA. IN
ADDITION...ENOUGH INSTABILITY SUGGESTED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT...TO
INTRODUCE ISOLD TSRA WITH THE WED DISTURBANCE AS WELL.

850MB TEMPS DROP TO NEAR 0C ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY WED...BUT THE BETTER COLD ADVECTION COMES IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD BEHIND THE WED DISTURBANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...

BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE AND DOMINATES THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...GRADUALLY SHIFTING FURTHER ESE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
THIS KEEPS THE REGION IN AN UNSTABLE/UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW WITH
NUMEROUS EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES. MODELS VARY CONSIDERABLY AS TO THE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE DISTURBANCES...BUT ENOUGH AGREEMENT
THAT POPS CANNOT BE DROPPED REALLY AT ANY TIME THE OVERALL TREND
IS TO PUSH THE BETTER MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES AND 850MB TEMPS DROP BELOW 0C IN THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES. THE ENTIRE PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH LOW CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WITH THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT THE
DRIEST. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...NO REAL CLEAR CONCERN AT THIS POINT FOR FROST/FREEZE
BECAUSE OF CYCLONIC FLOW AND CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 110 AM EDT MONDAY...

BULK OF THE RAIN IS HEADING NORTH OF THE AREA WITH THE WIND BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY AS LIGHT RAIN
TRACKS TO THE NORTH BY 08Z...THEN CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR
WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER...DEFINITELY BY 12Z MONDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT. PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL BRING BREEZY AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO THE AREA INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION...

VFR RETURNS LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS.

THEN THE NEXT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE
IN THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/KK
NEAR TERM...KK/RCS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS/KK/RCS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 200510
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
110 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST
AND COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON
MONDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT MONDAY...

HEAVY RAIN HAS MOVED NORTH OF THE AREA...THEREFORE THE FLOOD WATCH
HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 333 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH THIS EVENING AND CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE AND HIGHER PWATS WILL
INCREASE IN THE WARM ADVECTION WITH THE NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. THE REGIONAL RADAR IMAGE SHOWED WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTHEAST US. THERE ARE
SOME CONCERNS OF STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON MAY
TAKE SOME OF THE MOISTURE AWAY FROM OUR AREA. OUR LOCAL RNK
WRFARW...HIRESW-ARW...NAM AND GFS WAIT UNTIL AFTER 00Z BEFORE
BRINGING IN HEAVIER CONVECTION THIS EVENING...WHILE HRRR AND ECMWF
ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH TIMING. THE HRRR AND HIRESW-ARW LIFTS THE
PRECIPITATION NORTHEAST WITH MOST OF RAIN PULLING OUT BY 06-08Z.
USED A BLEND OF HRRR AND NAM FOR POPS...TAPERING POPS BACK AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
WITH CLOUD COVER HINDERING INSTABILITIES. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL
JET INCREASING TO 50-60 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL RESULT IN
STRONG UPSLOPE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE STRONG WINDS THROUGH A
DEEP LAYER WILL PROVIDE LARGE HELICITY VALUES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. THE DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK (SWODY1) PLACED
A MARGINAL (5 PERCENT CHANCE OF WIND) ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
CWA. PLAYED LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO ADJMAV WITH READINGS FROM
THE UPPER 40S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN
THE PIEDMONT.

A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXPECTED MONDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MONDAY. INITIALLY CUT BACK POPS CLOSER
TO NAM FOR MONDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASED TO LIKELY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SPC CONTINUES OUR SLIGHT RISK FOR MONDAY ACROSS MOST OF
OUR CWA. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE DYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH HEALTHY
SHEAR AND DECENT CAPES AROUND 2K.  IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE BREEZY WITH
EFFICIENT DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER IN A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.
THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLEARING MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT SUNDAY...

TAIL END OF COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL BE EXITING
THE AREA JUST AFT 00Z. HOWEVER...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH...ALMOST
WINTERLIKE PATTERN CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AND DEEPEN ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WITH NUMEROUS SPOKES OF PVA/SHORT WAVES REMAINING
UPSTREAM. THIS LEAVES THE REGION...ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
A VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN. AT A MINIMUM...EXPECT VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS. TIMING OF EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL BE THE KEY TO THE
TIMES FOR THE BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS. FOR SEVERAL DAYS...THE
GFS HAS INSISTED ON A SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION WED WITH WIDESPREAD -SHRA AS A RESULT. THE OTHER MODELS
REMAIN LACKLUSTER WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT DO SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME
SMALL CHANCE WITHIN THIS TIME FRAME. GIVEN THE UNSETTLED NATURE OF
THE PATTERN WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME UPPER
DISTURBANCES...CANNOT REALLY DROP POPS AT ANY TIME. BEST FOCUS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF WV/FAR SW VA. IN
ADDITION...ENOUGH INSTABILITY SUGGESTED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT...TO
INTRODUCE ISOLD TSRA WITH THE WED DISTURBANCE AS WELL.

850MB TEMPS DROP TO NEAR 0C ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY WED...BUT THE BETTER COLD ADVECTION COMES IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD BEHIND THE WED DISTURBANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...

BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE AND DOMINATES THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...GRADUALLY SHIFTING FURTHER ESE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
THIS KEEPS THE REGION IN AN UNSTABLE/UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW WITH
NUMEROUS EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES. MODELS VARY CONSIDERABLY AS TO THE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE DISTURBANCES...BUT ENOUGH AGREEMENT
THAT POPS CANNOT BE DROPPED REALLY AT ANY TIME THE OVERALL TREND
IS TO PUSH THE BETTER MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES AND 850MB TEMPS DROP BELOW 0C IN THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES. THE ENTIRE PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH LOW CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WITH THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT THE
DRIEST. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...NO REAL CLEAR CONCERN AT THIS POINT FOR FROST/FREEZE
BECAUSE OF CYCLONIC FLOW AND CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 110 AM EDT MONDAY...

BULK OF THE RAIN IS HEADING NORTH OF THE AREA WITH THE WIND BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY AS LIGHT RAIN
TRACKS TO THE NORTH BY 08Z...THEN CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR
WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER...DEFINITELY BY 12Z MONDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT. PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL BRING BREEZY AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO THE AREA INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION...

VFR RETURNS LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS.

THEN THE NEXT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE
IN THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/KK
NEAR TERM...KK/RCS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS/KK/RCS



000
FXUS61 KRNK 200354 RRC
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...DELAYED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1154 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST
AND COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON
MONDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1150 PM EDT SUNDAY...

FLOOD WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT TONIGHT.

MESO-SCALE WAVE TRACKING NORTH ALONG THE APPALACHIANS AT
MIDNIGHT...WILL PULL THE BULK OF THE HEAVY RAIN WITH IT. SINCE THE
ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS AND SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY DID NOT HAVE RAIN
ALL DAY AND MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN HAS ONLY FALLEN FOR A FEW
HOURS...THE FLOOD THREAT IS DIMINISHING QUICKLY. WE WILL CONTINUE
THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ROANOKE VALLEY NORTHWARD UNTIL THE RAIN
EXITS THE AREA...POSSIBLY BY 2AM. THE FLOOD WATCH TO THE SOUTH
INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA HIGHLAND WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 333 PM EDT SUNDAY...

FLOOD WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO TONIGHT.

A WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH THIS EVENING AND CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE AND HIGHER PWATS WILL
INCREASE IN THE WARM ADVECTION WITH THE NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. THE REGIONAL RADAR IMAGE SHOWED WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTHEAST US. THERE ARE
SOME CONCERNS OF STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON MAY
TAKE SOME OF THE MOISTURE AWAY FROM OUR AREA. OUR LOCAL RNK
WRFARW...HIRESW-ARW...NAM AND GFS WAIT UNTIL AFTER 00Z BEFORE
BRINGING IN HEAVIER CONVECTION THIS EVENING...WHILE HRRR AND ECMWF
ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH TIMING. THE HRRR AND HIRESW-ARW LIFTS THE
PRECIPITATION NORTHEAST WITH MOST OF RAIN PULLING OUT BY 06-08Z.
USED A BLEND OF HRRR AND NAM FOR POPS...TAPERING POPS BACK AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
WITH CLOUD COVER HINDERING INSTABILITIES. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL
JET INCREASING TO 50-60 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL RESULT IN
STRONG UPSLOPE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE STRONG WINDS THROUGH A
DEEP LAYER WILL PROVIDE LARGE HELICITY VALUES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. THE DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK (SWODY1) PLACED
A MARGINAL (5 PERCENT CHANCE OF WIND) ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
CWA. PLAYED LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO ADJMAV WITH READINGS FROM
THE UPPER 40S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN
THE PIEDMONT.

A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXPECTED MONDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MONDAY. INITIALLY CUT BACK POPS CLOSER
TO NAM FOR MONDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASED TO LIKELY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SPC CONTINUES OUR SLIGHT RISK FOR MONDAY ACROSS MOST OF
OUR CWA. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE DYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH HEALTHY
SHEAR AND DECENT CAPES AROUND 2K.  IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE BREEZY WITH
EFFICIENT DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER IN A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.
THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLEARING MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT SUNDAY...

TAIL END OF COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL BE EXITING
THE AREA JUST AFT 00Z. HOWEVER...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH...ALMOST
WINTERLIKE PATTERN CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AND DEEPEN ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WITH NUMEROUS SPOKES OF PVA/SHORT WAVES REMAINING
UPSTREAM. THIS LEAVES THE REGION...ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
A VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN. AT A MINIMUM...EXPECT VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS. TIMING OF EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL BE THE KEY TO THE
TIMES FOR THE BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS. FOR SEVERAL DAYS...THE
GFS HAS INSISTED ON A SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION WED WITH WIDESPREAD -SHRA AS A RESULT. THE OTHER MODELS
REMAIN LACKLUSTER WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT DO SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME
SMALL CHANCE WITHIN THIS TIME FRAME. GIVEN THE UNSETTLED NATURE OF
THE PATTERN WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME UPPER
DISTURBANCES...CANNOT REALLY DROP POPS AT ANY TIME. BEST FOCUS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF WV/FAR SW VA. IN
ADDITION...ENOUGH INSTABILITY SUGGESTED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT...TO
INTRODUCE ISOLD TSRA WITH THE WED DISTURBANCE AS WELL.

850MB TEMPS DROP TO NEAR 0C ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY WED...BUT THE BETTER COLD ADVECTION COMES IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD BEHIND THE WED DISTURBANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...

BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE AND DOMINATES THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...GRADUALLY SHIFTING FURTHER ESE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
THIS KEEPS THE REGION IN AN UNSTABLE/UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW WITH
NUMEROUS EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES. MODELS VARY CONSIDERABLY AS TO THE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE DISTURBANCES...BUT ENOUGH AGREEMENT
THAT POPS CANNOT BE DROPPED REALLY AT ANY TIME THE OVERALL TREND
IS TO PUSH THE BETTER MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES AND 850MB TEMPS DROP BELOW 0C IN THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES. THE ENTIRE PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH LOW CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WITH THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT THE
DRIEST. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...NO REAL CLEAR CONCERN AT THIS POINT FOR FROST/FREEZE
BECAUSE OF CYCLONIC FLOW AND CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 742 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A STRONG SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIND GUSTS
UP TO 30KTS ALONG WITH 1-2 HOURS OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING. LOW-END MVFR RESTRICTIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH VISIBILITIES IMPROVING AS RAIN EXITS. VFR
CONDITIONS HIGHLY LIKELY MONDAY MORNING...THEN CONVECTION WITH THE
COLD FRONT EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION WILL EXIT
THE MOUNTAINS BY 18Z AND THE PIEDMONT BY 22Z MONDAY.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION...

VFR RETURNS LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS.

THEN THE NEXT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE
IN THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ018>020-022>024-
     033>035.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/KK
NEAR TERM...KK/RCS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS/KK/RCS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 200354 RRC
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...DELAYED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1154 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST
AND COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON
MONDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1150 PM EDT SUNDAY...

FLOOD WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT TONIGHT.

MESO-SCALE WAVE TRACKING NORTH ALONG THE APPALACHIANS AT
MIDNIGHT...WILL PULL THE BULK OF THE HEAVY RAIN WITH IT. SINCE THE
ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS AND SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY DID NOT HAVE RAIN
ALL DAY AND MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN HAS ONLY FALLEN FOR A FEW
HOURS...THE FLOOD THREAT IS DIMINISHING QUICKLY. WE WILL CONTINUE
THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ROANOKE VALLEY NORTHWARD UNTIL THE RAIN
EXITS THE AREA...POSSIBLY BY 2AM. THE FLOOD WATCH TO THE SOUTH
INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA HIGHLAND WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 333 PM EDT SUNDAY...

FLOOD WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO TONIGHT.

A WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH THIS EVENING AND CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE AND HIGHER PWATS WILL
INCREASE IN THE WARM ADVECTION WITH THE NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. THE REGIONAL RADAR IMAGE SHOWED WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTHEAST US. THERE ARE
SOME CONCERNS OF STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON MAY
TAKE SOME OF THE MOISTURE AWAY FROM OUR AREA. OUR LOCAL RNK
WRFARW...HIRESW-ARW...NAM AND GFS WAIT UNTIL AFTER 00Z BEFORE
BRINGING IN HEAVIER CONVECTION THIS EVENING...WHILE HRRR AND ECMWF
ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH TIMING. THE HRRR AND HIRESW-ARW LIFTS THE
PRECIPITATION NORTHEAST WITH MOST OF RAIN PULLING OUT BY 06-08Z.
USED A BLEND OF HRRR AND NAM FOR POPS...TAPERING POPS BACK AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
WITH CLOUD COVER HINDERING INSTABILITIES. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL
JET INCREASING TO 50-60 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL RESULT IN
STRONG UPSLOPE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE STRONG WINDS THROUGH A
DEEP LAYER WILL PROVIDE LARGE HELICITY VALUES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. THE DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK (SWODY1) PLACED
A MARGINAL (5 PERCENT CHANCE OF WIND) ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
CWA. PLAYED LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO ADJMAV WITH READINGS FROM
THE UPPER 40S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN
THE PIEDMONT.

A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXPECTED MONDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MONDAY. INITIALLY CUT BACK POPS CLOSER
TO NAM FOR MONDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASED TO LIKELY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SPC CONTINUES OUR SLIGHT RISK FOR MONDAY ACROSS MOST OF
OUR CWA. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE DYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH HEALTHY
SHEAR AND DECENT CAPES AROUND 2K.  IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE BREEZY WITH
EFFICIENT DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER IN A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.
THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLEARING MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT SUNDAY...

TAIL END OF COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL BE EXITING
THE AREA JUST AFT 00Z. HOWEVER...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH...ALMOST
WINTERLIKE PATTERN CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AND DEEPEN ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WITH NUMEROUS SPOKES OF PVA/SHORT WAVES REMAINING
UPSTREAM. THIS LEAVES THE REGION...ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
A VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN. AT A MINIMUM...EXPECT VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS. TIMING OF EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL BE THE KEY TO THE
TIMES FOR THE BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS. FOR SEVERAL DAYS...THE
GFS HAS INSISTED ON A SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION WED WITH WIDESPREAD -SHRA AS A RESULT. THE OTHER MODELS
REMAIN LACKLUSTER WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT DO SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME
SMALL CHANCE WITHIN THIS TIME FRAME. GIVEN THE UNSETTLED NATURE OF
THE PATTERN WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME UPPER
DISTURBANCES...CANNOT REALLY DROP POPS AT ANY TIME. BEST FOCUS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF WV/FAR SW VA. IN
ADDITION...ENOUGH INSTABILITY SUGGESTED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT...TO
INTRODUCE ISOLD TSRA WITH THE WED DISTURBANCE AS WELL.

850MB TEMPS DROP TO NEAR 0C ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY WED...BUT THE BETTER COLD ADVECTION COMES IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD BEHIND THE WED DISTURBANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...

BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE AND DOMINATES THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...GRADUALLY SHIFTING FURTHER ESE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
THIS KEEPS THE REGION IN AN UNSTABLE/UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW WITH
NUMEROUS EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES. MODELS VARY CONSIDERABLY AS TO THE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE DISTURBANCES...BUT ENOUGH AGREEMENT
THAT POPS CANNOT BE DROPPED REALLY AT ANY TIME THE OVERALL TREND
IS TO PUSH THE BETTER MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES AND 850MB TEMPS DROP BELOW 0C IN THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES. THE ENTIRE PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH LOW CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WITH THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT THE
DRIEST. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...NO REAL CLEAR CONCERN AT THIS POINT FOR FROST/FREEZE
BECAUSE OF CYCLONIC FLOW AND CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 742 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A STRONG SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIND GUSTS
UP TO 30KTS ALONG WITH 1-2 HOURS OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING. LOW-END MVFR RESTRICTIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH VISIBILITIES IMPROVING AS RAIN EXITS. VFR
CONDITIONS HIGHLY LIKELY MONDAY MORNING...THEN CONVECTION WITH THE
COLD FRONT EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION WILL EXIT
THE MOUNTAINS BY 18Z AND THE PIEDMONT BY 22Z MONDAY.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION...

VFR RETURNS LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS.

THEN THE NEXT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE
IN THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ018>020-022>024-
     033>035.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/KK
NEAR TERM...KK/RCS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS/KK/RCS



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 200045
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
845 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER INDIANA WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTH INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT...PUSHING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE
LOCAL AREA. A COLD FRONT THEN CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWING DEEP SFC LOW ~995 MB OVER CENTRAL
INDIANA...WITH HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
SFC WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING IN FROM THE SE AND PUSHING
THROUGH NE NC AND WILL PROGRESS INTO SE VA OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS.
WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER THE ENTIRE REGION...EXCEPT IN THE MD ERN
SHORE...ALTHOUGH RAIN WILL BE MOVING IN THERE SHORTLY.
TEMPERATURES IN THE E/NE FLOW NORTH OF THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT
HAVE DIPPED INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/ERN
VA..AND DOWN TO 50 F AT OCEAN CITY MD. TEMPERATURES IN FAR SRN VA
AND NE NC ARE IN THE 60S. THUS FAR...INSTABILITY AND TSTMS HAVE
REMAINED SOUTH OF THE CWA NOW PUSHING INTO SRN/SE PORTIONS OF NC.
GIVEN SOMEWHAT OF AN IN-SITU WEDGE PATTERN...EXPECT THIS
CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE N/NE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HRS...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR TSTMS INTO AKQ CWA NOT ARRIVING FOR AT
LEAST A FEW MORE HRS (ABOUT 11 PM AT EARLIEST)...AND PRIMARILY
AFFECTING THE FAR SE ZONES. SEVERE WX MOST LIKELY STAYING SOUTH OF
THE CWA AS INSTABILITY TENDS TO SHIFT OFF THE ERN NC COAST INTO
THE GULF STREAM.

RAIN TOTALS SO FAR HAVE AVERAGED FROM ABOUT 0.25" TO 0.50" ACRS
CENTRAL AND SRN VA AND NE NC. BEST LIFT/FORCING AND INCREASING
LOW LEVEL THETA-E AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE YET TO
ARRIVE...SO A WIDESPREAD ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 0.75"
TO 1.50" IS ANTICIPATED. HAVE CONTD MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN (ALTHOUGH
DELAYED UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT ACRS THE NE). PCPN AMTS TO RMN BLO
6-12 HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE SO NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE
ISSUED. MAJORITY OF THE RAIN SHIFTS TO THE CST BY 12Z/20. THERE
WILL ALSO BE GUSTY ESE WINDS TO 20-30 MPH...HIGHEST NR THE CST.
ADDED AREAS OF FOG (VSBYS 1-3NM) OVR THE WTRS - AFT MDNGT...DUE
TO WARMER AIR SPREADING OVR COOLER WTRS. LOW TEMPS ARE OCCURRING
NOW IN MANY AREAS...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S MD ERN SHORE...TO THE
LOWER-MID 60S IN NE NC...WITH TEMPS STEADY TO SLOWLY RISING
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE AREA OF RAIN WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST MON MRNG...THEN CONCERN
SHIFTS TO A TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY LATE MON
AFTN/EVE (LIKELY LEADING TO SCT SHWRS/TSTMS). SPC CONTS TO PUT THE
AREA OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MON AFTN/EVE FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX IS CERTAINLY THERE GIVEN ML CAPE VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE...STEEP LAPSE
RATES...AND A MODEST SHEAR PROFILE. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT POSSIBLE
STRONG/ISOLD SVR STORMS IN THE HWO FOR LATE MON AFTN/EVE. OTW...VRB
CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY AND BREEZY/WARMER MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON. HI TEMPS
IN THE 70S AT THE CST...80 TO 85 ELSW.

COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FA MON NGT WITH CHC POPS...THEN
DRYING/COOLER WESTERLY FLOW TAKING OVR INTO TUE. PARTLY/MOSTLY
SUNNY TUE WITH HI TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO NR 70 AT THE
COAST...AND L/M70S ELSW.

HI PRES MOVES TO NR THE SE CONUS CST BY WED...PROVIDING WSW FLO
AND CONTG MILD WX. A WK TROUGH SFC-ALOFT WILL BE APPROACHING FM
THE WNW...WHICH MAY RESULT IN INCRSG CLDNS W AND N...ALG W/ PSBL
ISOLD/SCT SHRAS/TSTMS (HWVR WILL CAP POPS AT 14% THOSE AREAS FOR
NOW). LO TEMPS TUE NGT M40S W AND N TO FAR L50S SE. HI TEMPS WED
IN THE L/M70S N AND NW...TO M/U70S CNTRL/SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS UPPER
CLOSED LOW REMAINS IN VIC OF THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD...FAST MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATE
WEDS NIGHT-EARLY THURS MORNING. GFS CONTINUES TO REMAIN ON THE
SLOWER SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE WRT FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH THE ECMWF
QUICKER. BASED ON WLY FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BACK OVER THE
MIDWEST...OPTED TO REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDS NIGHT OVER
THE NRN AND NERN ZONES AND THEN THURS SOUTH AND EAST OF
RICHMOND...TRENDING SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE SLOWER GFS. HIGHS THURS
AROUND NORMAL...LOW-MID 60S. THEREAFTER...COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SWD FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE MIDWEST...EXTENDING INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRI. HIGHS FRI GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S NE TO
MID 60S SE UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND NWLY WINDS. SRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO LIFT INTO THE MIDWEST FRI NIGHT-SAT WITH
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW FORECAST TO PROGRESS EWD ALONG A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF STATES SAT. MOISTURE RETURNS SAT TO GO ALONG
WITH OVERRUNNING AND WEAK PERTURBATIONS ALOFT. INCREASED POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE N TO CHANCE S. HIGHS SAT GENERALLY AROUND 60 ACROSS
THE REGION. SFC LOW MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SAT NIGHT...WITH
ANY REMAINING PRECIP EXPECTED ACROSS THE SE LOCAL AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS SUN...BUT COOL CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S NE TO LOW 60S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RAIN HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE TAF SITES...JUST STARTING
TO GET TO SBY AT 00Z TAF ISSUANCE. IFR CONDS HAVE BEEN INTERMITTENT
TO THIS POINT BUT IT APPEARS THAT THEY WILL BECOME MORE PERSISTENT
LATER IN THE EVENING.

WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SE OVERNIGHT AS A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
PULLS NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD
OF A WARM FRONT. WILL ASSESS THE NEED FOR LLWS MENTION IN THE TAFS
FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS LATER THIS EVENING AND AMEND THE TAFS IF
NEEDED. THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NE THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
MONDAY MORNING.

THE MAIN PART OF THE RAIN PULLS NE OUT OF THE AREA BETWEEN 10-15Z
WITH LOW CLOUDS/LIGHT DRIZZLE CONTINUING INTO THE MID TO LATE
MORNING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR TOWARD MIDDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP TOWARD THE END OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD AND INTO MONDAY
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT. AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK STARTING TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID MS
VALLEY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NE COAST AND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
LOCATED NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER. GRADIENT HAS RESULTED IN INCREASING
ELY WINDS OVER THE WATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SCA HEADLINES NOW IN
EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS. SPEEDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS HAVE BUILT
TO 6 FT IN THE NRN WATERS AND 3-4 FT ELSEWHERE. WAVES GENERALLY 2-3
FT. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT...WITH
SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THIS
IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR A SHORT DURATION (~3-5 HR) OF STRONG SCA
CONDITIONS IN SE FLOW. HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE
MIDNIGHT TO 4-5AM TIMEFRAME FOR THE STRONGEST SE WINDS OF 20-25 KT
WITH GUSTS OF 30 KT. BUMPED UP SEAS TO 6-9 FT (HIGHEST IN THE NRN
COASTAL WATERS) LATE TONIGHT. FOG ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS
TONIGHT AS WAA OCCURS OVER COOL WATER. GRADIENT WINDS DIMINISH MON
MORNING AS FLOW BECOMES SLY 10-15 KT. FAVORABLE FETCH/SWELL WILL
KEEP SEAS ELEVATED THRU THE DAY...BUT SUBSIDING TO 4 TO 6 FT. COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE MON...CROSSING THE REGION TUES
NIGHT. SLIGHT UPTICK IN SLY WINDS EXPECTED MON EVENING IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT...AROUND 15 KT IN THE BAY AND 20 KT COASTAL WATERS.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT...WITH STRONG GUSTY
WINDS POSSIBLE. SEAS SUBSIDE LAST MON NIGHT-TUES MORNING THANKS TO
WLY WINDS. SCA CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. HEADLINES
HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THRU 7AM TUES FOR COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF
PARRAMORE ISLAND AND THRU 1PM TUES NORTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AVG QPF 0.75-1.50"...LOCALLY UP TO 2.00" OVR MOST OF THE RIVER
BASINS WILL RESULT IN RIVER LVLS TO PSBLY RISE TO 1/2-NR FULL
BANKFULL TUE INTO WED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW TODAY FOLLOWED BY MODEST SE FLOW TONIGHT
WILL ALLOW TIDAL ANOMALIES TO BUILD TO ~1.0FT ABOVE NORMAL LATER
TONIGHT PRIMARILY IN THE MIDDLE BAY AND ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
OF THE MD/VA ERN SHORE. SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING
WILL HELP MAINTAIN ~1.0 FT ANOMALIES IN THE MIDDLE BAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY AS THE
FLOW BECOMES OFFSHORE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM
HYDROLOGY...AKQ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 200045
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
845 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER INDIANA WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTH INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT...PUSHING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE
LOCAL AREA. A COLD FRONT THEN CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWING DEEP SFC LOW ~995 MB OVER CENTRAL
INDIANA...WITH HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
SFC WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING IN FROM THE SE AND PUSHING
THROUGH NE NC AND WILL PROGRESS INTO SE VA OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS.
WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER THE ENTIRE REGION...EXCEPT IN THE MD ERN
SHORE...ALTHOUGH RAIN WILL BE MOVING IN THERE SHORTLY.
TEMPERATURES IN THE E/NE FLOW NORTH OF THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT
HAVE DIPPED INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/ERN
VA..AND DOWN TO 50 F AT OCEAN CITY MD. TEMPERATURES IN FAR SRN VA
AND NE NC ARE IN THE 60S. THUS FAR...INSTABILITY AND TSTMS HAVE
REMAINED SOUTH OF THE CWA NOW PUSHING INTO SRN/SE PORTIONS OF NC.
GIVEN SOMEWHAT OF AN IN-SITU WEDGE PATTERN...EXPECT THIS
CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE N/NE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HRS...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR TSTMS INTO AKQ CWA NOT ARRIVING FOR AT
LEAST A FEW MORE HRS (ABOUT 11 PM AT EARLIEST)...AND PRIMARILY
AFFECTING THE FAR SE ZONES. SEVERE WX MOST LIKELY STAYING SOUTH OF
THE CWA AS INSTABILITY TENDS TO SHIFT OFF THE ERN NC COAST INTO
THE GULF STREAM.

RAIN TOTALS SO FAR HAVE AVERAGED FROM ABOUT 0.25" TO 0.50" ACRS
CENTRAL AND SRN VA AND NE NC. BEST LIFT/FORCING AND INCREASING
LOW LEVEL THETA-E AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE YET TO
ARRIVE...SO A WIDESPREAD ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 0.75"
TO 1.50" IS ANTICIPATED. HAVE CONTD MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN (ALTHOUGH
DELAYED UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT ACRS THE NE). PCPN AMTS TO RMN BLO
6-12 HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE SO NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE
ISSUED. MAJORITY OF THE RAIN SHIFTS TO THE CST BY 12Z/20. THERE
WILL ALSO BE GUSTY ESE WINDS TO 20-30 MPH...HIGHEST NR THE CST.
ADDED AREAS OF FOG (VSBYS 1-3NM) OVR THE WTRS - AFT MDNGT...DUE
TO WARMER AIR SPREADING OVR COOLER WTRS. LOW TEMPS ARE OCCURRING
NOW IN MANY AREAS...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S MD ERN SHORE...TO THE
LOWER-MID 60S IN NE NC...WITH TEMPS STEADY TO SLOWLY RISING
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE AREA OF RAIN WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST MON MRNG...THEN CONCERN
SHIFTS TO A TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY LATE MON
AFTN/EVE (LIKELY LEADING TO SCT SHWRS/TSTMS). SPC CONTS TO PUT THE
AREA OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MON AFTN/EVE FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX IS CERTAINLY THERE GIVEN ML CAPE VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE...STEEP LAPSE
RATES...AND A MODEST SHEAR PROFILE. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT POSSIBLE
STRONG/ISOLD SVR STORMS IN THE HWO FOR LATE MON AFTN/EVE. OTW...VRB
CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY AND BREEZY/WARMER MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON. HI TEMPS
IN THE 70S AT THE CST...80 TO 85 ELSW.

COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FA MON NGT WITH CHC POPS...THEN
DRYING/COOLER WESTERLY FLOW TAKING OVR INTO TUE. PARTLY/MOSTLY
SUNNY TUE WITH HI TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO NR 70 AT THE
COAST...AND L/M70S ELSW.

HI PRES MOVES TO NR THE SE CONUS CST BY WED...PROVIDING WSW FLO
AND CONTG MILD WX. A WK TROUGH SFC-ALOFT WILL BE APPROACHING FM
THE WNW...WHICH MAY RESULT IN INCRSG CLDNS W AND N...ALG W/ PSBL
ISOLD/SCT SHRAS/TSTMS (HWVR WILL CAP POPS AT 14% THOSE AREAS FOR
NOW). LO TEMPS TUE NGT M40S W AND N TO FAR L50S SE. HI TEMPS WED
IN THE L/M70S N AND NW...TO M/U70S CNTRL/SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS UPPER
CLOSED LOW REMAINS IN VIC OF THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD...FAST MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATE
WEDS NIGHT-EARLY THURS MORNING. GFS CONTINUES TO REMAIN ON THE
SLOWER SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE WRT FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH THE ECMWF
QUICKER. BASED ON WLY FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BACK OVER THE
MIDWEST...OPTED TO REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDS NIGHT OVER
THE NRN AND NERN ZONES AND THEN THURS SOUTH AND EAST OF
RICHMOND...TRENDING SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE SLOWER GFS. HIGHS THURS
AROUND NORMAL...LOW-MID 60S. THEREAFTER...COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SWD FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE MIDWEST...EXTENDING INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRI. HIGHS FRI GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S NE TO
MID 60S SE UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND NWLY WINDS. SRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO LIFT INTO THE MIDWEST FRI NIGHT-SAT WITH
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW FORECAST TO PROGRESS EWD ALONG A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF STATES SAT. MOISTURE RETURNS SAT TO GO ALONG
WITH OVERRUNNING AND WEAK PERTURBATIONS ALOFT. INCREASED POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE N TO CHANCE S. HIGHS SAT GENERALLY AROUND 60 ACROSS
THE REGION. SFC LOW MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SAT NIGHT...WITH
ANY REMAINING PRECIP EXPECTED ACROSS THE SE LOCAL AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS SUN...BUT COOL CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S NE TO LOW 60S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RAIN HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE TAF SITES...JUST STARTING
TO GET TO SBY AT 00Z TAF ISSUANCE. IFR CONDS HAVE BEEN INTERMITTENT
TO THIS POINT BUT IT APPEARS THAT THEY WILL BECOME MORE PERSISTENT
LATER IN THE EVENING.

WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SE OVERNIGHT AS A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
PULLS NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD
OF A WARM FRONT. WILL ASSESS THE NEED FOR LLWS MENTION IN THE TAFS
FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS LATER THIS EVENING AND AMEND THE TAFS IF
NEEDED. THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NE THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
MONDAY MORNING.

THE MAIN PART OF THE RAIN PULLS NE OUT OF THE AREA BETWEEN 10-15Z
WITH LOW CLOUDS/LIGHT DRIZZLE CONTINUING INTO THE MID TO LATE
MORNING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR TOWARD MIDDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP TOWARD THE END OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD AND INTO MONDAY
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT. AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK STARTING TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID MS
VALLEY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NE COAST AND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
LOCATED NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER. GRADIENT HAS RESULTED IN INCREASING
ELY WINDS OVER THE WATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SCA HEADLINES NOW IN
EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS. SPEEDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS HAVE BUILT
TO 6 FT IN THE NRN WATERS AND 3-4 FT ELSEWHERE. WAVES GENERALLY 2-3
FT. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT...WITH
SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THIS
IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR A SHORT DURATION (~3-5 HR) OF STRONG SCA
CONDITIONS IN SE FLOW. HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE
MIDNIGHT TO 4-5AM TIMEFRAME FOR THE STRONGEST SE WINDS OF 20-25 KT
WITH GUSTS OF 30 KT. BUMPED UP SEAS TO 6-9 FT (HIGHEST IN THE NRN
COASTAL WATERS) LATE TONIGHT. FOG ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS
TONIGHT AS WAA OCCURS OVER COOL WATER. GRADIENT WINDS DIMINISH MON
MORNING AS FLOW BECOMES SLY 10-15 KT. FAVORABLE FETCH/SWELL WILL
KEEP SEAS ELEVATED THRU THE DAY...BUT SUBSIDING TO 4 TO 6 FT. COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE MON...CROSSING THE REGION TUES
NIGHT. SLIGHT UPTICK IN SLY WINDS EXPECTED MON EVENING IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT...AROUND 15 KT IN THE BAY AND 20 KT COASTAL WATERS.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT...WITH STRONG GUSTY
WINDS POSSIBLE. SEAS SUBSIDE LAST MON NIGHT-TUES MORNING THANKS TO
WLY WINDS. SCA CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. HEADLINES
HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THRU 7AM TUES FOR COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF
PARRAMORE ISLAND AND THRU 1PM TUES NORTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AVG QPF 0.75-1.50"...LOCALLY UP TO 2.00" OVR MOST OF THE RIVER
BASINS WILL RESULT IN RIVER LVLS TO PSBLY RISE TO 1/2-NR FULL
BANKFULL TUE INTO WED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW TODAY FOLLOWED BY MODEST SE FLOW TONIGHT
WILL ALLOW TIDAL ANOMALIES TO BUILD TO ~1.0FT ABOVE NORMAL LATER
TONIGHT PRIMARILY IN THE MIDDLE BAY AND ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
OF THE MD/VA ERN SHORE. SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING
WILL HELP MAINTAIN ~1.0 FT ANOMALIES IN THE MIDDLE BAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY AS THE
FLOW BECOMES OFFSHORE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM
HYDROLOGY...AKQ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KRNK 192356
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
756 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST
AND COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON
MONDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT SUNDAY...

FLOOD WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO TONIGHT.

LAST BAND OF HEAVY RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. VERY
HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH
WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES HAVE
BEEN REPORTED FROM WATAUGA COUNTY NC TO PATRICK COUNTY VA. CREEKS
AND STREAMS ARE COMING OUT OF THEIR BANKS...THEREFORE WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE FLOOD WATCH UNTIL THE THREAT IS OVER...POSSIBLY
BY MIDNIGHT.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 333 PM EDT SUNDAY...

FLOOD WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO TONIGHT.

A WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH THIS EVENING AND CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE AND HIGHER PWATS WILL
INCREASE IN THE WARM ADVECTION WITH THE NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. THE REGIONAL RADAR IMAGE SHOWED WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTHEAST US. THERE ARE
SOME CONCERNS OF STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON MAY
TAKE SOME OF THE MOISTURE AWAY FROM OUR AREA. OUR LOCAL RNK
WRFARW...HIRESW-ARW...NAM AND GFS WAIT UNTIL AFTER 00Z BEFORE
BRINGING IN HEAVIER CONVECTION THIS EVENING...WHILE HRRR AND ECMWF
ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH TIMING. THE HRRR AND HIRESW-ARW LIFTS THE
PRECIPITATION NORTHEAST WITH MOST OF RAIN PULLING OUT BY 06-08Z.
USED A BLEND OF HRRR AND NAM FOR POPS...TAPERING POPS BACK AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
WITH CLOUD COVER HINDERING INSTABILITIES. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL
JET INCREASING TO 50-60 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL RESULT IN
STRONG UPSLOPE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE STRONG WINDS THROUGH A
DEEP LAYER WILL PROVIDE LARGE HELICITY VALUES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. THE DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK (SWODY1) PLACED
A MARGINAL (5 PERCENT CHANCE OF WIND) ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
CWA. PLAYED LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO ADJMAV WITH READINGS FROM
THE UPPER 40S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN
THE PIEDMONT.

A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXPECTED MONDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MONDAY. INITIALLY CUT BACK POPS CLOSER
TO NAM FOR MONDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASED TO LIKELY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SPC CONTINUES OUR SLIGHT RISK FOR MONDAY ACROSS MOST OF
OUR CWA. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE DYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH HEALTHY
SHEAR AND DECENT CAPES AROUND 2K.  IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE BREEZY WITH
EFFICIENT DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER IN A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.
THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLEARING MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT SUNDAY...

TAIL END OF COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL BE EXITING
THE AREA JUST AFT 00Z. HOWEVER...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH...ALMOST
WINTERLIKE PATTERN CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AND DEEPEN ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WITH NUMEROUS SPOKES OF PVA/SHORT WAVES REMAINING
UPSTREAM. THIS LEAVES THE REGION...ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
A VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN. AT A MINIMUM...EXPECT VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS. TIMING OF EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL BE THE KEY TO THE
TIMES FOR THE BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS. FOR SEVERAL DAYS...THE
GFS HAS INSISTED ON A SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION WED WITH WIDESPREAD -SHRA AS A RESULT. THE OTHER MODELS
REMAIN LACKLUSTER WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT DO SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME
SMALL CHANCE WITHIN THIS TIME FRAME. GIVEN THE UNSETTLED NATURE OF
THE PATTERN WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME UPPER
DISTURBANCES...CANNOT REALLY DROP POPS AT ANY TIME. BEST FOCUS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF WV/FAR SW VA. IN
ADDITION...ENOUGH INSTABILITY SUGGESTED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT...TO
INTRODUCE ISOLD TSRA WITH THE WED DISTURBANCE AS WELL.

850MB TEMPS DROP TO NEAR 0C ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY WED...BUT THE BETTER COLD ADVECTION COMES IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD BEHIND THE WED DISTURBANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...

BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE AND DOMINATES THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...GRADUALLY SHIFTING FURTHER ESE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
THIS KEEPS THE REGION IN AN UNSTABLE/UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW WITH
NUMEROUS EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES. MODELS VARY CONSIDERABLY AS TO THE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE DISTURBANCES...BUT ENOUGH AGREEMENT
THAT POPS CANNOT BE DROPPED REALLY AT ANY TIME THE OVERALL TREND
IS TO PUSH THE BETTER MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES AND 850MB TEMPS DROP BELOW 0C IN THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES. THE ENTIRE PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH LOW CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WITH THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT THE
DRIEST. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...NO REAL CLEAR CONCERN AT THIS POINT FOR FROST/FREEZE
BECAUSE OF CYCLONIC FLOW AND CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 742 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A STRONG SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIND GUSTS
UP TO 30KTS ALONG WITH 1-2 HOURS OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING. LOW-END MVFR RESTRICTIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH VISIBILITIES IMPROVING AS RAIN EXITS. VFR
CONDITIONS HIGHLY LIKELY MONDAY MORNING...THEN CONVECTION WITH THE
COLD FRONT EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION WILL EXIT
THE MOUNTAINS BY 18Z AND THE PIEDMONT BY 22Z MONDAY.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION...

VFR RETURNS LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS.

THEN THE NEXT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE
IN THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SUNDAY...

HAVE EXPANDED THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS OF
VIRGINIA.

A DEEP LAYER FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE OF SOUTHEAST WINDS...WILL BE INCREASING TO AROUND 50
KNOTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
JUST ABOVE 1.5 INCHES WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE
STRONGEST LIFT AND HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE FROM 18Z/2PM
THROUGH 06Z/2AM SO HAVE ADDED HEAVY RAIN TO THE FORECAST ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH
12Z/8AM MONDAY. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES WERE ROUGHLY 1.5 TO
2.5 INCHES FOR 3 HOURS. SO THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FLOODING ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS.

PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE FOR MAINSTEM RIVERS SUGGESTS A SMALL
POSSIBILITY FOR MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE DAN RIVER AND NEW RIVER.
HOWEVER...THE IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ018>020-022>024-
     033>035.
     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ009-012>017-032.
NC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ001>003-018>020.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/KK
NEAR TERM...KK/RCS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS/KK/RCS
HYDROLOGY...KK



000
FXUS61 KRNK 192356
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
756 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST
AND COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON
MONDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT SUNDAY...

FLOOD WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO TONIGHT.

LAST BAND OF HEAVY RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. VERY
HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH
WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES HAVE
BEEN REPORTED FROM WATAUGA COUNTY NC TO PATRICK COUNTY VA. CREEKS
AND STREAMS ARE COMING OUT OF THEIR BANKS...THEREFORE WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE FLOOD WATCH UNTIL THE THREAT IS OVER...POSSIBLY
BY MIDNIGHT.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 333 PM EDT SUNDAY...

FLOOD WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO TONIGHT.

A WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH THIS EVENING AND CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE AND HIGHER PWATS WILL
INCREASE IN THE WARM ADVECTION WITH THE NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. THE REGIONAL RADAR IMAGE SHOWED WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTHEAST US. THERE ARE
SOME CONCERNS OF STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON MAY
TAKE SOME OF THE MOISTURE AWAY FROM OUR AREA. OUR LOCAL RNK
WRFARW...HIRESW-ARW...NAM AND GFS WAIT UNTIL AFTER 00Z BEFORE
BRINGING IN HEAVIER CONVECTION THIS EVENING...WHILE HRRR AND ECMWF
ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH TIMING. THE HRRR AND HIRESW-ARW LIFTS THE
PRECIPITATION NORTHEAST WITH MOST OF RAIN PULLING OUT BY 06-08Z.
USED A BLEND OF HRRR AND NAM FOR POPS...TAPERING POPS BACK AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
WITH CLOUD COVER HINDERING INSTABILITIES. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL
JET INCREASING TO 50-60 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL RESULT IN
STRONG UPSLOPE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE STRONG WINDS THROUGH A
DEEP LAYER WILL PROVIDE LARGE HELICITY VALUES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. THE DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK (SWODY1) PLACED
A MARGINAL (5 PERCENT CHANCE OF WIND) ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
CWA. PLAYED LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO ADJMAV WITH READINGS FROM
THE UPPER 40S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN
THE PIEDMONT.

A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXPECTED MONDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MONDAY. INITIALLY CUT BACK POPS CLOSER
TO NAM FOR MONDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASED TO LIKELY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SPC CONTINUES OUR SLIGHT RISK FOR MONDAY ACROSS MOST OF
OUR CWA. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE DYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH HEALTHY
SHEAR AND DECENT CAPES AROUND 2K.  IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE BREEZY WITH
EFFICIENT DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER IN A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.
THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLEARING MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT SUNDAY...

TAIL END OF COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL BE EXITING
THE AREA JUST AFT 00Z. HOWEVER...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH...ALMOST
WINTERLIKE PATTERN CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AND DEEPEN ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WITH NUMEROUS SPOKES OF PVA/SHORT WAVES REMAINING
UPSTREAM. THIS LEAVES THE REGION...ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
A VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN. AT A MINIMUM...EXPECT VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS. TIMING OF EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL BE THE KEY TO THE
TIMES FOR THE BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS. FOR SEVERAL DAYS...THE
GFS HAS INSISTED ON A SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION WED WITH WIDESPREAD -SHRA AS A RESULT. THE OTHER MODELS
REMAIN LACKLUSTER WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT DO SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME
SMALL CHANCE WITHIN THIS TIME FRAME. GIVEN THE UNSETTLED NATURE OF
THE PATTERN WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME UPPER
DISTURBANCES...CANNOT REALLY DROP POPS AT ANY TIME. BEST FOCUS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF WV/FAR SW VA. IN
ADDITION...ENOUGH INSTABILITY SUGGESTED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT...TO
INTRODUCE ISOLD TSRA WITH THE WED DISTURBANCE AS WELL.

850MB TEMPS DROP TO NEAR 0C ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY WED...BUT THE BETTER COLD ADVECTION COMES IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD BEHIND THE WED DISTURBANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...

BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE AND DOMINATES THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...GRADUALLY SHIFTING FURTHER ESE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
THIS KEEPS THE REGION IN AN UNSTABLE/UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW WITH
NUMEROUS EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES. MODELS VARY CONSIDERABLY AS TO THE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE DISTURBANCES...BUT ENOUGH AGREEMENT
THAT POPS CANNOT BE DROPPED REALLY AT ANY TIME THE OVERALL TREND
IS TO PUSH THE BETTER MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES AND 850MB TEMPS DROP BELOW 0C IN THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES. THE ENTIRE PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH LOW CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WITH THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT THE
DRIEST. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...NO REAL CLEAR CONCERN AT THIS POINT FOR FROST/FREEZE
BECAUSE OF CYCLONIC FLOW AND CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 742 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A STRONG SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIND GUSTS
UP TO 30KTS ALONG WITH 1-2 HOURS OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING. LOW-END MVFR RESTRICTIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH VISIBILITIES IMPROVING AS RAIN EXITS. VFR
CONDITIONS HIGHLY LIKELY MONDAY MORNING...THEN CONVECTION WITH THE
COLD FRONT EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION WILL EXIT
THE MOUNTAINS BY 18Z AND THE PIEDMONT BY 22Z MONDAY.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION...

VFR RETURNS LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS.

THEN THE NEXT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE
IN THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SUNDAY...

HAVE EXPANDED THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS OF
VIRGINIA.

A DEEP LAYER FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE OF SOUTHEAST WINDS...WILL BE INCREASING TO AROUND 50
KNOTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
JUST ABOVE 1.5 INCHES WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE
STRONGEST LIFT AND HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE FROM 18Z/2PM
THROUGH 06Z/2AM SO HAVE ADDED HEAVY RAIN TO THE FORECAST ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH
12Z/8AM MONDAY. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES WERE ROUGHLY 1.5 TO
2.5 INCHES FOR 3 HOURS. SO THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FLOODING ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS.

PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE FOR MAINSTEM RIVERS SUGGESTS A SMALL
POSSIBILITY FOR MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE DAN RIVER AND NEW RIVER.
HOWEVER...THE IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ018>020-022>024-
     033>035.
     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ009-012>017-032.
NC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ001>003-018>020.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/KK
NEAR TERM...KK/RCS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS/KK/RCS
HYDROLOGY...KK



000
FXUS61 KRNK 192356
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
756 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST
AND COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON
MONDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT SUNDAY...

FLOOD WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO TONIGHT.

LAST BAND OF HEAVY RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. VERY
HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH
WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES HAVE
BEEN REPORTED FROM WATAUGA COUNTY NC TO PATRICK COUNTY VA. CREEKS
AND STREAMS ARE COMING OUT OF THEIR BANKS...THEREFORE WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE FLOOD WATCH UNTIL THE THREAT IS OVER...POSSIBLY
BY MIDNIGHT.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 333 PM EDT SUNDAY...

FLOOD WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO TONIGHT.

A WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH THIS EVENING AND CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE AND HIGHER PWATS WILL
INCREASE IN THE WARM ADVECTION WITH THE NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. THE REGIONAL RADAR IMAGE SHOWED WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTHEAST US. THERE ARE
SOME CONCERNS OF STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON MAY
TAKE SOME OF THE MOISTURE AWAY FROM OUR AREA. OUR LOCAL RNK
WRFARW...HIRESW-ARW...NAM AND GFS WAIT UNTIL AFTER 00Z BEFORE
BRINGING IN HEAVIER CONVECTION THIS EVENING...WHILE HRRR AND ECMWF
ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH TIMING. THE HRRR AND HIRESW-ARW LIFTS THE
PRECIPITATION NORTHEAST WITH MOST OF RAIN PULLING OUT BY 06-08Z.
USED A BLEND OF HRRR AND NAM FOR POPS...TAPERING POPS BACK AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
WITH CLOUD COVER HINDERING INSTABILITIES. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL
JET INCREASING TO 50-60 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL RESULT IN
STRONG UPSLOPE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE STRONG WINDS THROUGH A
DEEP LAYER WILL PROVIDE LARGE HELICITY VALUES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. THE DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK (SWODY1) PLACED
A MARGINAL (5 PERCENT CHANCE OF WIND) ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
CWA. PLAYED LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO ADJMAV WITH READINGS FROM
THE UPPER 40S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN
THE PIEDMONT.

A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXPECTED MONDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MONDAY. INITIALLY CUT BACK POPS CLOSER
TO NAM FOR MONDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASED TO LIKELY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SPC CONTINUES OUR SLIGHT RISK FOR MONDAY ACROSS MOST OF
OUR CWA. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE DYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH HEALTHY
SHEAR AND DECENT CAPES AROUND 2K.  IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE BREEZY WITH
EFFICIENT DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER IN A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.
THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLEARING MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT SUNDAY...

TAIL END OF COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL BE EXITING
THE AREA JUST AFT 00Z. HOWEVER...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH...ALMOST
WINTERLIKE PATTERN CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AND DEEPEN ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WITH NUMEROUS SPOKES OF PVA/SHORT WAVES REMAINING
UPSTREAM. THIS LEAVES THE REGION...ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
A VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN. AT A MINIMUM...EXPECT VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS. TIMING OF EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL BE THE KEY TO THE
TIMES FOR THE BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS. FOR SEVERAL DAYS...THE
GFS HAS INSISTED ON A SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION WED WITH WIDESPREAD -SHRA AS A RESULT. THE OTHER MODELS
REMAIN LACKLUSTER WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT DO SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME
SMALL CHANCE WITHIN THIS TIME FRAME. GIVEN THE UNSETTLED NATURE OF
THE PATTERN WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME UPPER
DISTURBANCES...CANNOT REALLY DROP POPS AT ANY TIME. BEST FOCUS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF WV/FAR SW VA. IN
ADDITION...ENOUGH INSTABILITY SUGGESTED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT...TO
INTRODUCE ISOLD TSRA WITH THE WED DISTURBANCE AS WELL.

850MB TEMPS DROP TO NEAR 0C ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY WED...BUT THE BETTER COLD ADVECTION COMES IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD BEHIND THE WED DISTURBANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...

BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE AND DOMINATES THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...GRADUALLY SHIFTING FURTHER ESE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
THIS KEEPS THE REGION IN AN UNSTABLE/UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW WITH
NUMEROUS EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES. MODELS VARY CONSIDERABLY AS TO THE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE DISTURBANCES...BUT ENOUGH AGREEMENT
THAT POPS CANNOT BE DROPPED REALLY AT ANY TIME THE OVERALL TREND
IS TO PUSH THE BETTER MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES AND 850MB TEMPS DROP BELOW 0C IN THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES. THE ENTIRE PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH LOW CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WITH THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT THE
DRIEST. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...NO REAL CLEAR CONCERN AT THIS POINT FOR FROST/FREEZE
BECAUSE OF CYCLONIC FLOW AND CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 742 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A STRONG SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIND GUSTS
UP TO 30KTS ALONG WITH 1-2 HOURS OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING. LOW-END MVFR RESTRICTIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH VISIBILITIES IMPROVING AS RAIN EXITS. VFR
CONDITIONS HIGHLY LIKELY MONDAY MORNING...THEN CONVECTION WITH THE
COLD FRONT EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION WILL EXIT
THE MOUNTAINS BY 18Z AND THE PIEDMONT BY 22Z MONDAY.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION...

VFR RETURNS LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS.

THEN THE NEXT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE
IN THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SUNDAY...

HAVE EXPANDED THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS OF
VIRGINIA.

A DEEP LAYER FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE OF SOUTHEAST WINDS...WILL BE INCREASING TO AROUND 50
KNOTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
JUST ABOVE 1.5 INCHES WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE
STRONGEST LIFT AND HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE FROM 18Z/2PM
THROUGH 06Z/2AM SO HAVE ADDED HEAVY RAIN TO THE FORECAST ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH
12Z/8AM MONDAY. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES WERE ROUGHLY 1.5 TO
2.5 INCHES FOR 3 HOURS. SO THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FLOODING ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS.

PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE FOR MAINSTEM RIVERS SUGGESTS A SMALL
POSSIBILITY FOR MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE DAN RIVER AND NEW RIVER.
HOWEVER...THE IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ018>020-022>024-
     033>035.
     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ009-012>017-032.
NC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ001>003-018>020.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/KK
NEAR TERM...KK/RCS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS/KK/RCS
HYDROLOGY...KK



000
FXUS61 KRNK 192356
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
756 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST
AND COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON
MONDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT SUNDAY...

FLOOD WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO TONIGHT.

LAST BAND OF HEAVY RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. VERY
HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH
WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES HAVE
BEEN REPORTED FROM WATAUGA COUNTY NC TO PATRICK COUNTY VA. CREEKS
AND STREAMS ARE COMING OUT OF THEIR BANKS...THEREFORE WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE FLOOD WATCH UNTIL THE THREAT IS OVER...POSSIBLY
BY MIDNIGHT.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 333 PM EDT SUNDAY...

FLOOD WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO TONIGHT.

A WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH THIS EVENING AND CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE AND HIGHER PWATS WILL
INCREASE IN THE WARM ADVECTION WITH THE NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. THE REGIONAL RADAR IMAGE SHOWED WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTHEAST US. THERE ARE
SOME CONCERNS OF STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON MAY
TAKE SOME OF THE MOISTURE AWAY FROM OUR AREA. OUR LOCAL RNK
WRFARW...HIRESW-ARW...NAM AND GFS WAIT UNTIL AFTER 00Z BEFORE
BRINGING IN HEAVIER CONVECTION THIS EVENING...WHILE HRRR AND ECMWF
ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH TIMING. THE HRRR AND HIRESW-ARW LIFTS THE
PRECIPITATION NORTHEAST WITH MOST OF RAIN PULLING OUT BY 06-08Z.
USED A BLEND OF HRRR AND NAM FOR POPS...TAPERING POPS BACK AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
WITH CLOUD COVER HINDERING INSTABILITIES. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL
JET INCREASING TO 50-60 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL RESULT IN
STRONG UPSLOPE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE STRONG WINDS THROUGH A
DEEP LAYER WILL PROVIDE LARGE HELICITY VALUES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. THE DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK (SWODY1) PLACED
A MARGINAL (5 PERCENT CHANCE OF WIND) ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
CWA. PLAYED LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO ADJMAV WITH READINGS FROM
THE UPPER 40S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN
THE PIEDMONT.

A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXPECTED MONDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MONDAY. INITIALLY CUT BACK POPS CLOSER
TO NAM FOR MONDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASED TO LIKELY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SPC CONTINUES OUR SLIGHT RISK FOR MONDAY ACROSS MOST OF
OUR CWA. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE DYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH HEALTHY
SHEAR AND DECENT CAPES AROUND 2K.  IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE BREEZY WITH
EFFICIENT DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER IN A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.
THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLEARING MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT SUNDAY...

TAIL END OF COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL BE EXITING
THE AREA JUST AFT 00Z. HOWEVER...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH...ALMOST
WINTERLIKE PATTERN CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AND DEEPEN ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WITH NUMEROUS SPOKES OF PVA/SHORT WAVES REMAINING
UPSTREAM. THIS LEAVES THE REGION...ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
A VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN. AT A MINIMUM...EXPECT VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS. TIMING OF EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL BE THE KEY TO THE
TIMES FOR THE BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS. FOR SEVERAL DAYS...THE
GFS HAS INSISTED ON A SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION WED WITH WIDESPREAD -SHRA AS A RESULT. THE OTHER MODELS
REMAIN LACKLUSTER WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT DO SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME
SMALL CHANCE WITHIN THIS TIME FRAME. GIVEN THE UNSETTLED NATURE OF
THE PATTERN WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME UPPER
DISTURBANCES...CANNOT REALLY DROP POPS AT ANY TIME. BEST FOCUS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF WV/FAR SW VA. IN
ADDITION...ENOUGH INSTABILITY SUGGESTED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT...TO
INTRODUCE ISOLD TSRA WITH THE WED DISTURBANCE AS WELL.

850MB TEMPS DROP TO NEAR 0C ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY WED...BUT THE BETTER COLD ADVECTION COMES IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD BEHIND THE WED DISTURBANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...

BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE AND DOMINATES THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...GRADUALLY SHIFTING FURTHER ESE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
THIS KEEPS THE REGION IN AN UNSTABLE/UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW WITH
NUMEROUS EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES. MODELS VARY CONSIDERABLY AS TO THE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE DISTURBANCES...BUT ENOUGH AGREEMENT
THAT POPS CANNOT BE DROPPED REALLY AT ANY TIME THE OVERALL TREND
IS TO PUSH THE BETTER MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES AND 850MB TEMPS DROP BELOW 0C IN THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES. THE ENTIRE PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH LOW CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WITH THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT THE
DRIEST. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...NO REAL CLEAR CONCERN AT THIS POINT FOR FROST/FREEZE
BECAUSE OF CYCLONIC FLOW AND CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 742 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A STRONG SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIND GUSTS
UP TO 30KTS ALONG WITH 1-2 HOURS OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING. LOW-END MVFR RESTRICTIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH VISIBILITIES IMPROVING AS RAIN EXITS. VFR
CONDITIONS HIGHLY LIKELY MONDAY MORNING...THEN CONVECTION WITH THE
COLD FRONT EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION WILL EXIT
THE MOUNTAINS BY 18Z AND THE PIEDMONT BY 22Z MONDAY.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION...

VFR RETURNS LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS.

THEN THE NEXT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE
IN THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SUNDAY...

HAVE EXPANDED THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS OF
VIRGINIA.

A DEEP LAYER FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE OF SOUTHEAST WINDS...WILL BE INCREASING TO AROUND 50
KNOTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
JUST ABOVE 1.5 INCHES WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE
STRONGEST LIFT AND HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE FROM 18Z/2PM
THROUGH 06Z/2AM SO HAVE ADDED HEAVY RAIN TO THE FORECAST ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH
12Z/8AM MONDAY. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES WERE ROUGHLY 1.5 TO
2.5 INCHES FOR 3 HOURS. SO THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FLOODING ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS.

PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE FOR MAINSTEM RIVERS SUGGESTS A SMALL
POSSIBILITY FOR MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE DAN RIVER AND NEW RIVER.
HOWEVER...THE IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ018>020-022>024-
     033>035.
     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ009-012>017-032.
NC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ001>003-018>020.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/KK
NEAR TERM...KK/RCS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS/KK/RCS
HYDROLOGY...KK



000
FXUS61 KRNK 192356
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
756 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST
AND COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON
MONDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT SUNDAY...

FLOOD WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO TONIGHT.

LAST BAND OF HEAVY RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. VERY
HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH
WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES HAVE
BEEN REPORTED FROM WATAUGA COUNTY NC TO PATRICK COUNTY VA. CREEKS
AND STREAMS ARE COMING OUT OF THEIR BANKS...THEREFORE WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE FLOOD WATCH UNTIL THE THREAT IS OVER...POSSIBLY
BY MIDNIGHT.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 333 PM EDT SUNDAY...

FLOOD WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO TONIGHT.

A WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH THIS EVENING AND CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE AND HIGHER PWATS WILL
INCREASE IN THE WARM ADVECTION WITH THE NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. THE REGIONAL RADAR IMAGE SHOWED WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTHEAST US. THERE ARE
SOME CONCERNS OF STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON MAY
TAKE SOME OF THE MOISTURE AWAY FROM OUR AREA. OUR LOCAL RNK
WRFARW...HIRESW-ARW...NAM AND GFS WAIT UNTIL AFTER 00Z BEFORE
BRINGING IN HEAVIER CONVECTION THIS EVENING...WHILE HRRR AND ECMWF
ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH TIMING. THE HRRR AND HIRESW-ARW LIFTS THE
PRECIPITATION NORTHEAST WITH MOST OF RAIN PULLING OUT BY 06-08Z.
USED A BLEND OF HRRR AND NAM FOR POPS...TAPERING POPS BACK AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
WITH CLOUD COVER HINDERING INSTABILITIES. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL
JET INCREASING TO 50-60 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL RESULT IN
STRONG UPSLOPE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE STRONG WINDS THROUGH A
DEEP LAYER WILL PROVIDE LARGE HELICITY VALUES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. THE DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK (SWODY1) PLACED
A MARGINAL (5 PERCENT CHANCE OF WIND) ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
CWA. PLAYED LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO ADJMAV WITH READINGS FROM
THE UPPER 40S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN
THE PIEDMONT.

A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXPECTED MONDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MONDAY. INITIALLY CUT BACK POPS CLOSER
TO NAM FOR MONDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASED TO LIKELY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SPC CONTINUES OUR SLIGHT RISK FOR MONDAY ACROSS MOST OF
OUR CWA. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE DYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH HEALTHY
SHEAR AND DECENT CAPES AROUND 2K.  IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE BREEZY WITH
EFFICIENT DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER IN A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.
THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLEARING MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT SUNDAY...

TAIL END OF COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL BE EXITING
THE AREA JUST AFT 00Z. HOWEVER...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH...ALMOST
WINTERLIKE PATTERN CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AND DEEPEN ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WITH NUMEROUS SPOKES OF PVA/SHORT WAVES REMAINING
UPSTREAM. THIS LEAVES THE REGION...ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
A VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN. AT A MINIMUM...EXPECT VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS. TIMING OF EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL BE THE KEY TO THE
TIMES FOR THE BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS. FOR SEVERAL DAYS...THE
GFS HAS INSISTED ON A SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION WED WITH WIDESPREAD -SHRA AS A RESULT. THE OTHER MODELS
REMAIN LACKLUSTER WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT DO SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME
SMALL CHANCE WITHIN THIS TIME FRAME. GIVEN THE UNSETTLED NATURE OF
THE PATTERN WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME UPPER
DISTURBANCES...CANNOT REALLY DROP POPS AT ANY TIME. BEST FOCUS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF WV/FAR SW VA. IN
ADDITION...ENOUGH INSTABILITY SUGGESTED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT...TO
INTRODUCE ISOLD TSRA WITH THE WED DISTURBANCE AS WELL.

850MB TEMPS DROP TO NEAR 0C ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY WED...BUT THE BETTER COLD ADVECTION COMES IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD BEHIND THE WED DISTURBANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...

BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE AND DOMINATES THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...GRADUALLY SHIFTING FURTHER ESE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
THIS KEEPS THE REGION IN AN UNSTABLE/UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW WITH
NUMEROUS EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES. MODELS VARY CONSIDERABLY AS TO THE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE DISTURBANCES...BUT ENOUGH AGREEMENT
THAT POPS CANNOT BE DROPPED REALLY AT ANY TIME THE OVERALL TREND
IS TO PUSH THE BETTER MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES AND 850MB TEMPS DROP BELOW 0C IN THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES. THE ENTIRE PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH LOW CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WITH THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT THE
DRIEST. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...NO REAL CLEAR CONCERN AT THIS POINT FOR FROST/FREEZE
BECAUSE OF CYCLONIC FLOW AND CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 742 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A STRONG SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIND GUSTS
UP TO 30KTS ALONG WITH 1-2 HOURS OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING. LOW-END MVFR RESTRICTIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH VISIBILITIES IMPROVING AS RAIN EXITS. VFR
CONDITIONS HIGHLY LIKELY MONDAY MORNING...THEN CONVECTION WITH THE
COLD FRONT EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION WILL EXIT
THE MOUNTAINS BY 18Z AND THE PIEDMONT BY 22Z MONDAY.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION...

VFR RETURNS LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS.

THEN THE NEXT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE
IN THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SUNDAY...

HAVE EXPANDED THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS OF
VIRGINIA.

A DEEP LAYER FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE OF SOUTHEAST WINDS...WILL BE INCREASING TO AROUND 50
KNOTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
JUST ABOVE 1.5 INCHES WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE
STRONGEST LIFT AND HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE FROM 18Z/2PM
THROUGH 06Z/2AM SO HAVE ADDED HEAVY RAIN TO THE FORECAST ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH
12Z/8AM MONDAY. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES WERE ROUGHLY 1.5 TO
2.5 INCHES FOR 3 HOURS. SO THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FLOODING ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS.

PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE FOR MAINSTEM RIVERS SUGGESTS A SMALL
POSSIBILITY FOR MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE DAN RIVER AND NEW RIVER.
HOWEVER...THE IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ018>020-022>024-
     033>035.
     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ009-012>017-032.
NC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ001>003-018>020.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/KK
NEAR TERM...KK/RCS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS/KK/RCS
HYDROLOGY...KK




000
FXUS61 KRNK 192356
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
756 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST
AND COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON
MONDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT SUNDAY...

FLOOD WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO TONIGHT.

LAST BAND OF HEAVY RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. VERY
HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH
WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES HAVE
BEEN REPORTED FROM WATAUGA COUNTY NC TO PATRICK COUNTY VA. CREEKS
AND STREAMS ARE COMING OUT OF THEIR BANKS...THEREFORE WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE FLOOD WATCH UNTIL THE THREAT IS OVER...POSSIBLY
BY MIDNIGHT.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 333 PM EDT SUNDAY...

FLOOD WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO TONIGHT.

A WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH THIS EVENING AND CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE AND HIGHER PWATS WILL
INCREASE IN THE WARM ADVECTION WITH THE NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. THE REGIONAL RADAR IMAGE SHOWED WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTHEAST US. THERE ARE
SOME CONCERNS OF STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON MAY
TAKE SOME OF THE MOISTURE AWAY FROM OUR AREA. OUR LOCAL RNK
WRFARW...HIRESW-ARW...NAM AND GFS WAIT UNTIL AFTER 00Z BEFORE
BRINGING IN HEAVIER CONVECTION THIS EVENING...WHILE HRRR AND ECMWF
ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH TIMING. THE HRRR AND HIRESW-ARW LIFTS THE
PRECIPITATION NORTHEAST WITH MOST OF RAIN PULLING OUT BY 06-08Z.
USED A BLEND OF HRRR AND NAM FOR POPS...TAPERING POPS BACK AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
WITH CLOUD COVER HINDERING INSTABILITIES. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL
JET INCREASING TO 50-60 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL RESULT IN
STRONG UPSLOPE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE STRONG WINDS THROUGH A
DEEP LAYER WILL PROVIDE LARGE HELICITY VALUES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. THE DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK (SWODY1) PLACED
A MARGINAL (5 PERCENT CHANCE OF WIND) ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
CWA. PLAYED LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO ADJMAV WITH READINGS FROM
THE UPPER 40S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN
THE PIEDMONT.

A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXPECTED MONDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MONDAY. INITIALLY CUT BACK POPS CLOSER
TO NAM FOR MONDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASED TO LIKELY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SPC CONTINUES OUR SLIGHT RISK FOR MONDAY ACROSS MOST OF
OUR CWA. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE DYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH HEALTHY
SHEAR AND DECENT CAPES AROUND 2K.  IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE BREEZY WITH
EFFICIENT DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER IN A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.
THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLEARING MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT SUNDAY...

TAIL END OF COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL BE EXITING
THE AREA JUST AFT 00Z. HOWEVER...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH...ALMOST
WINTERLIKE PATTERN CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AND DEEPEN ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WITH NUMEROUS SPOKES OF PVA/SHORT WAVES REMAINING
UPSTREAM. THIS LEAVES THE REGION...ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
A VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN. AT A MINIMUM...EXPECT VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS. TIMING OF EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL BE THE KEY TO THE
TIMES FOR THE BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS. FOR SEVERAL DAYS...THE
GFS HAS INSISTED ON A SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION WED WITH WIDESPREAD -SHRA AS A RESULT. THE OTHER MODELS
REMAIN LACKLUSTER WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT DO SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME
SMALL CHANCE WITHIN THIS TIME FRAME. GIVEN THE UNSETTLED NATURE OF
THE PATTERN WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME UPPER
DISTURBANCES...CANNOT REALLY DROP POPS AT ANY TIME. BEST FOCUS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF WV/FAR SW VA. IN
ADDITION...ENOUGH INSTABILITY SUGGESTED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT...TO
INTRODUCE ISOLD TSRA WITH THE WED DISTURBANCE AS WELL.

850MB TEMPS DROP TO NEAR 0C ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY WED...BUT THE BETTER COLD ADVECTION COMES IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD BEHIND THE WED DISTURBANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...

BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE AND DOMINATES THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...GRADUALLY SHIFTING FURTHER ESE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
THIS KEEPS THE REGION IN AN UNSTABLE/UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW WITH
NUMEROUS EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES. MODELS VARY CONSIDERABLY AS TO THE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE DISTURBANCES...BUT ENOUGH AGREEMENT
THAT POPS CANNOT BE DROPPED REALLY AT ANY TIME THE OVERALL TREND
IS TO PUSH THE BETTER MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES AND 850MB TEMPS DROP BELOW 0C IN THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES. THE ENTIRE PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH LOW CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WITH THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT THE
DRIEST. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...NO REAL CLEAR CONCERN AT THIS POINT FOR FROST/FREEZE
BECAUSE OF CYCLONIC FLOW AND CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 742 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A STRONG SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIND GUSTS
UP TO 30KTS ALONG WITH 1-2 HOURS OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING. LOW-END MVFR RESTRICTIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH VISIBILITIES IMPROVING AS RAIN EXITS. VFR
CONDITIONS HIGHLY LIKELY MONDAY MORNING...THEN CONVECTION WITH THE
COLD FRONT EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION WILL EXIT
THE MOUNTAINS BY 18Z AND THE PIEDMONT BY 22Z MONDAY.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION...

VFR RETURNS LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS.

THEN THE NEXT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE
IN THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SUNDAY...

HAVE EXPANDED THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS OF
VIRGINIA.

A DEEP LAYER FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE OF SOUTHEAST WINDS...WILL BE INCREASING TO AROUND 50
KNOTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
JUST ABOVE 1.5 INCHES WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE
STRONGEST LIFT AND HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE FROM 18Z/2PM
THROUGH 06Z/2AM SO HAVE ADDED HEAVY RAIN TO THE FORECAST ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH
12Z/8AM MONDAY. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES WERE ROUGHLY 1.5 TO
2.5 INCHES FOR 3 HOURS. SO THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FLOODING ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS.

PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE FOR MAINSTEM RIVERS SUGGESTS A SMALL
POSSIBILITY FOR MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE DAN RIVER AND NEW RIVER.
HOWEVER...THE IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ018>020-022>024-
     033>035.
     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ009-012>017-032.
NC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ001>003-018>020.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/KK
NEAR TERM...KK/RCS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS/KK/RCS
HYDROLOGY...KK



000
FXUS61 KLWX 192256
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
656 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ILLINOIS WILL
LIFT NORTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY. AN UPPER LOW WILL THEN
PERSIST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
LGT RA HAS OVRSPREAD THE AREA. RCVD A REPORT OF.36" NEAR MAYSVILLE
IN GRANT CO BUT OVRALL TOTALS HV BEEN LGT SO FAR. EYES ARE ON THE
HVIER PCPN PRESENTLY XNTDG FM SWRN VA TO SC. THIS WL LKLY IMPACT
THE FCST AREA BTWN 03Z AND 12Z AND IS THE BASIS FOR THE FLD WTCH.
1.5IN PW WOULD BE AROUND THE MAX FOR THE MID APRIL RECORD AT IAD
PER SPC SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY.

FLOOD THREAT IS HIGHEST FOR ERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE THE
ELY THEN SELY FLOW ON THE RIDGE WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION TO AROUND
2 INCHES...AS WELL AS THE URBAN AREAS IN THE BALTIMORE-WASHINGTON
METRO. THESE AREAS HAVE THE LOWEST FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE OF AROUND
1.5 INCHES (APPROX STORM TOTAL QPF) IN SIX HOURS. THE FLOOD WATCH
INCLUDES OTHER PROBLEMATIC AREAS SUCH AS THE RIDGE/VALLEYS WEST
FROM THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY.

MESOLOW ALONG THE WARM FRONT WILL DIRECT THE PATHS OF A 40KT
SLY/SELY LLJ AROUND 2 KFT LATE TONIGHT. THE GREATEST CONCERN FOR
THESE WINDS ARE FOR MARINE AREAS (SEE MARINE SECTION BELOW). ADDED
ISO THUNDER WORDING FOR SRN MD LATE TONIGHT AS THE HEAD OF THE
THETA-E RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OVER THE AREA.

EXPECT MINS AROUND 50F FOR THE NRN TIER OF COUNTIES...THEN MID TO
UPR 50S AS YOU HEAD SOUTH FROM THERE.

MONDAY...WARM FRONT CLEARS NERN MD IN THE MID-MORNING WITH LITTLE
RAIN IMMEDIATELY BEHIND. ADJUSTED POPS TO BE SILENT/SCHC FOR LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT CROSSES FROM THE WEST LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. EXPECT CLOUD BREAKS TO ALLOW
SOME SUNSHINE AND DESTABILIZATION. AGREE WITH A SLIGHT RISK OVER THE
AREA AS 500-1000 J/KG SBCAPE AND 30 KT BULK SHEAR COULD ENABLE
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH BOTH HAIL AND WIND THREATS. MAX
TEMPS GENERALLY MDI TO UPR 70S...THOUGH MORE 80S (AND STRONGER
STORMS) CAN BE EXPECTED WITH MORE SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CDFNT LKLY TO BE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE BLURDG AT START OF PD...AND WL
BE PUSHING EAST OF THE DELMARVA THRU THE EVNG. IN APRIL...SUNSET
TYPICALLY MARKS THE END OF ANY STRONG THUNDER THREAT...BUT GFS
SUGGESTING THAT LAPSE RATES WL STILL BE STEEP STRAIGHT THRU FROPA.
ANTICIPATE THAT TSTMS WL CONT BUT SEVERITY MAY START TO WEAKEN. WL
CARRY A LWR ORDER THUNDER THREAT.

OTRW...MON NGT WL BE MARKED BY RAPID DRYING AND STRONG CAA. HV SKIES
MOSTLY CLRG OUT OVNGT E OF APLCNS. THINK THERE WL BE PARTIAL DCPLG
BY DAWN...SO AM FOCUSING ON HILLTOPS FOR THE HIER WNDS /20 KT/. AM A
PINCH ON THE HIER SIDE FOR MIN-T DUE TO THE CONTD MIXING OVNGT.

FAST ZONAL FLOW WL DOMINATE TUE-TUE NGT AS CYCLONE SITS N OF THE
GRTLKS. WL BE KEEPING FCST DRY THO THERE WL BE PDS OF CLDS AT TIMES
AS WELL AS 20 KT BREEZES. TEMP FCST LEANED MORE ON A MOS BLEND FOR
THE MAXT AND MORE ON ENS BLEND FOR MIN-T.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED WITH THE EXTENDED...A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DOMINATE THE WX PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. ONLY CHANGE IS WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
WED...GUIDANCE IS NOW SUGGESTING THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
DURING THE DAY WED. WITHOUT A DECENT MOISTURE CONNECTION...
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE.

IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED...AS A RESULT OF PERSISTENT WLY WINDS FROM THE LOW TO OUR
NORTH/NORTHEAST. STILL A CHANCE FOR SOME FROST FRI AND SAT IN
WESTERN MD ALONG MASON-DIXON. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES AREA SAT...
BUT NOT ALL GUIDANCE BRINGS QPF OVER OUR CWA. WENT WITH HPC
GUIDANCE FOR NOW...UNTIL GUIDANCE COMES INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR GIVES WAY TO MVFR THEN IFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TONIGHT AS
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SPREADS ACROSS THE TERMINALS AHEAD
OF A WARM FRONT. ELY FLOW 15 KT GUST UP TO 25 KT BECOMING SELY
TONIGHT WITH RAIN ONSET.

LULL IN RAIN/IMPRVG CONDS MONDAY MORNING AS RAIN TAPERS OFF BY
MID MORNING. COLD FRONT CROSSES TERMINALS MONDAY EVENING WITH LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING POTENTIALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

SHRA/TSRA WL BE EXITING THE BALT-DC TERMINALS DURING THE ELY MON EVNG.
UNCERTAINTIES REVOLVE AROUND TIMING AND COVERAGE. MVFR CONDS MAY
LINGER A CPL HRS THEREAFTR.

TUE...PRIMARILY VFR. WLY WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20-25 KT. SUB-VFR
POSSIBLE BEGINNING WED IN VICINITY OF SHOWERS. VFR RETURNS THU.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA ALL WATERS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. ELY FLOW 15 KT GUST 25 KT
SHIFTS SELY TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS OVER THE AREA. HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY SHOWERS OVR THE WATERS TONIGHT. SMWS OR GALE
LIKELY LATE TONIGHT AS STRONG WIND FIELD CROSSES.

MONDAY...SWLY 15 TO 20 KT FLOW DEVELOPS AFTER A MID MORNING LULL.
DECIDED TO MAINTAIN SCA. POTENTIALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH
MONDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

NWLY FLOW BEGINS IN WAKE OF CDFNT TOMORROW NGT. SCA WINDS AVBL IN NW
FLOW BUT MIXING BECOME A BIT MORE OF A CONCERN. WL CONT SCA FOR ALL
WATERS THRU THE EVNG...AND THEN XTND THE MD BAY AND LWR PTMC RIVER
THRU THE REST OF THE NGT. SOLID SCA CONDS LKLY WL CONT AREAWIDE INTO
TUE. NEAR GLW WINDS DO EXIST AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LYR...BUT AM
HAVING DOUBTS AS TO WHETHER FULL MIXING CAN BE REALIZED.

SCA POSSIBLE WED AHEAD OF FRONTAL PASSAGE AND AGAIN THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ELY FLOW 15 TO 20 KT CAUING SOMEE WATER LEVEL RISES. FLOW BECOMES
SELY TONIGHT. WATER LEVELS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE BAY TONIGHT.
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE BY THE HIGH TIDES MONDAY
MORNING. FLOW BECOMES SWLY MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SO THE
COASTAL FLOOD THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PAST MONDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AUDIO DEGRADATION AT THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO CHARLOTTESVILLE
TRANSMITTER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
TECHNICIANS ARE SCHEDULED TO PERFORM MAINTENANCE AT THE
TRANSMITTER SITE MONDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR DCZ001.
MD...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR MDZ004>006-011-013-014-
     503>508.
VA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ025>031-036>040-050-
     051-055-056-501>504-507-508.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR VAZ052>054-505-506.
WV...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ050-055-505-506.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR WVZ053.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR ANZ535.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...BAJ/HTS/MSE



000
FXUS61 KLWX 192256
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
656 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ILLINOIS WILL
LIFT NORTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY. AN UPPER LOW WILL THEN
PERSIST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
LGT RA HAS OVRSPREAD THE AREA. RCVD A REPORT OF.36" NEAR MAYSVILLE
IN GRANT CO BUT OVRALL TOTALS HV BEEN LGT SO FAR. EYES ARE ON THE
HVIER PCPN PRESENTLY XNTDG FM SWRN VA TO SC. THIS WL LKLY IMPACT
THE FCST AREA BTWN 03Z AND 12Z AND IS THE BASIS FOR THE FLD WTCH.
1.5IN PW WOULD BE AROUND THE MAX FOR THE MID APRIL RECORD AT IAD
PER SPC SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY.

FLOOD THREAT IS HIGHEST FOR ERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE THE
ELY THEN SELY FLOW ON THE RIDGE WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION TO AROUND
2 INCHES...AS WELL AS THE URBAN AREAS IN THE BALTIMORE-WASHINGTON
METRO. THESE AREAS HAVE THE LOWEST FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE OF AROUND
1.5 INCHES (APPROX STORM TOTAL QPF) IN SIX HOURS. THE FLOOD WATCH
INCLUDES OTHER PROBLEMATIC AREAS SUCH AS THE RIDGE/VALLEYS WEST
FROM THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY.

MESOLOW ALONG THE WARM FRONT WILL DIRECT THE PATHS OF A 40KT
SLY/SELY LLJ AROUND 2 KFT LATE TONIGHT. THE GREATEST CONCERN FOR
THESE WINDS ARE FOR MARINE AREAS (SEE MARINE SECTION BELOW). ADDED
ISO THUNDER WORDING FOR SRN MD LATE TONIGHT AS THE HEAD OF THE
THETA-E RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OVER THE AREA.

EXPECT MINS AROUND 50F FOR THE NRN TIER OF COUNTIES...THEN MID TO
UPR 50S AS YOU HEAD SOUTH FROM THERE.

MONDAY...WARM FRONT CLEARS NERN MD IN THE MID-MORNING WITH LITTLE
RAIN IMMEDIATELY BEHIND. ADJUSTED POPS TO BE SILENT/SCHC FOR LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT CROSSES FROM THE WEST LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. EXPECT CLOUD BREAKS TO ALLOW
SOME SUNSHINE AND DESTABILIZATION. AGREE WITH A SLIGHT RISK OVER THE
AREA AS 500-1000 J/KG SBCAPE AND 30 KT BULK SHEAR COULD ENABLE
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH BOTH HAIL AND WIND THREATS. MAX
TEMPS GENERALLY MDI TO UPR 70S...THOUGH MORE 80S (AND STRONGER
STORMS) CAN BE EXPECTED WITH MORE SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CDFNT LKLY TO BE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE BLURDG AT START OF PD...AND WL
BE PUSHING EAST OF THE DELMARVA THRU THE EVNG. IN APRIL...SUNSET
TYPICALLY MARKS THE END OF ANY STRONG THUNDER THREAT...BUT GFS
SUGGESTING THAT LAPSE RATES WL STILL BE STEEP STRAIGHT THRU FROPA.
ANTICIPATE THAT TSTMS WL CONT BUT SEVERITY MAY START TO WEAKEN. WL
CARRY A LWR ORDER THUNDER THREAT.

OTRW...MON NGT WL BE MARKED BY RAPID DRYING AND STRONG CAA. HV SKIES
MOSTLY CLRG OUT OVNGT E OF APLCNS. THINK THERE WL BE PARTIAL DCPLG
BY DAWN...SO AM FOCUSING ON HILLTOPS FOR THE HIER WNDS /20 KT/. AM A
PINCH ON THE HIER SIDE FOR MIN-T DUE TO THE CONTD MIXING OVNGT.

FAST ZONAL FLOW WL DOMINATE TUE-TUE NGT AS CYCLONE SITS N OF THE
GRTLKS. WL BE KEEPING FCST DRY THO THERE WL BE PDS OF CLDS AT TIMES
AS WELL AS 20 KT BREEZES. TEMP FCST LEANED MORE ON A MOS BLEND FOR
THE MAXT AND MORE ON ENS BLEND FOR MIN-T.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED WITH THE EXTENDED...A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DOMINATE THE WX PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. ONLY CHANGE IS WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
WED...GUIDANCE IS NOW SUGGESTING THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
DURING THE DAY WED. WITHOUT A DECENT MOISTURE CONNECTION...
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE.

IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED...AS A RESULT OF PERSISTENT WLY WINDS FROM THE LOW TO OUR
NORTH/NORTHEAST. STILL A CHANCE FOR SOME FROST FRI AND SAT IN
WESTERN MD ALONG MASON-DIXON. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES AREA SAT...
BUT NOT ALL GUIDANCE BRINGS QPF OVER OUR CWA. WENT WITH HPC
GUIDANCE FOR NOW...UNTIL GUIDANCE COMES INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR GIVES WAY TO MVFR THEN IFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TONIGHT AS
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SPREADS ACROSS THE TERMINALS AHEAD
OF A WARM FRONT. ELY FLOW 15 KT GUST UP TO 25 KT BECOMING SELY
TONIGHT WITH RAIN ONSET.

LULL IN RAIN/IMPRVG CONDS MONDAY MORNING AS RAIN TAPERS OFF BY
MID MORNING. COLD FRONT CROSSES TERMINALS MONDAY EVENING WITH LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING POTENTIALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

SHRA/TSRA WL BE EXITING THE BALT-DC TERMINALS DURING THE ELY MON EVNG.
UNCERTAINTIES REVOLVE AROUND TIMING AND COVERAGE. MVFR CONDS MAY
LINGER A CPL HRS THEREAFTR.

TUE...PRIMARILY VFR. WLY WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20-25 KT. SUB-VFR
POSSIBLE BEGINNING WED IN VICINITY OF SHOWERS. VFR RETURNS THU.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA ALL WATERS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. ELY FLOW 15 KT GUST 25 KT
SHIFTS SELY TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS OVER THE AREA. HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY SHOWERS OVR THE WATERS TONIGHT. SMWS OR GALE
LIKELY LATE TONIGHT AS STRONG WIND FIELD CROSSES.

MONDAY...SWLY 15 TO 20 KT FLOW DEVELOPS AFTER A MID MORNING LULL.
DECIDED TO MAINTAIN SCA. POTENTIALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH
MONDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

NWLY FLOW BEGINS IN WAKE OF CDFNT TOMORROW NGT. SCA WINDS AVBL IN NW
FLOW BUT MIXING BECOME A BIT MORE OF A CONCERN. WL CONT SCA FOR ALL
WATERS THRU THE EVNG...AND THEN XTND THE MD BAY AND LWR PTMC RIVER
THRU THE REST OF THE NGT. SOLID SCA CONDS LKLY WL CONT AREAWIDE INTO
TUE. NEAR GLW WINDS DO EXIST AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LYR...BUT AM
HAVING DOUBTS AS TO WHETHER FULL MIXING CAN BE REALIZED.

SCA POSSIBLE WED AHEAD OF FRONTAL PASSAGE AND AGAIN THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ELY FLOW 15 TO 20 KT CAUING SOMEE WATER LEVEL RISES. FLOW BECOMES
SELY TONIGHT. WATER LEVELS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE BAY TONIGHT.
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE BY THE HIGH TIDES MONDAY
MORNING. FLOW BECOMES SWLY MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SO THE
COASTAL FLOOD THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PAST MONDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AUDIO DEGRADATION AT THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO CHARLOTTESVILLE
TRANSMITTER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
TECHNICIANS ARE SCHEDULED TO PERFORM MAINTENANCE AT THE
TRANSMITTER SITE MONDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR DCZ001.
MD...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR MDZ004>006-011-013-014-
     503>508.
VA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ025>031-036>040-050-
     051-055-056-501>504-507-508.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR VAZ052>054-505-506.
WV...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ050-055-505-506.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR WVZ053.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR ANZ535.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...BAJ/HTS/MSE




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 192205
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
605 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT...PUSHING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE
LOCAL AREA. A COLD FRONT THEN CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CLDNS HAS SPREAD ACRS MOST OF THE FA AS OF MID AFTN...W/ RA MAKING
STEADY PROGRESS INTO CNTRL/SRN PORTIONS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN SETTING
UP FOR A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVR THE FA. W/ HI PRES
OFF OF NEW ENG...AND LO PRES W OF THE MTNS...A SIGNFICANT INFLO OF
DP LYRD MOISTURE XPCD OVRNGT AS A WARM FRONT PROGRESSES NE
THROUGH THE FA. HAVE CONTD MENTION OF HVY RA...AND MDLS DO HINT AT
MINIMAL INSTABILITY PUSHING NWD INVOF ERN PORTIONS OF VA AND OVR
NE NC LT THIS EVE/AFT MDNGT SO ADDED SLGT CHC-CHC THUNDER. QPF
AVGG 0.75-1.50"...MAYBE LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS. PCPN AMTS TO RMN BLO
6-12 HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE SO NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE
ISSUED. MAJORITY OF THE RA SHIFTS TO THE CST BY 12Z/20. THERE WILL
ALSO BE GUSTY ESE WNDS TO 20-30 MPH...HIGHEST NR THE CST. ADDED
AREAS OF FG (VSBYS 1-3NM) OVR THE WTRS - AFT MDNGT...DUE TO WARMER
AIR SPREADING OVR COOLER WTRS. LO TEMPS TNGT FM THE M50S TO M60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE AREA OF RAIN WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST MON MRNG...THEN CONCERN
SHIFTS TO A TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY LATE MON
AFTN/EVE (LIKELY LEADING TO SCT SHWRS/TSTMS). SPC CONTS TO PUT THE
AREA OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MON AFTN/EVE FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX IS CERTAINLY THERE GIVEN ML CAPE VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE...STEEP LAPSE
RATES...AND A MODEST SHEAR PROFILE. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT POSSIBLE
STRONG/ISOLD SVR STORMS IN THE HWO FOR LATE MON AFTN/EVE. OTW...VRB
CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY AND BREEZY/WARMER MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON. HI TEMPS
IN THE 70S AT THE CST...80 TO 85 ELSW.

COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FA MON NGT WITH CHC POPS...THEN
DRYING/COOLER WESTERLY FLOW TAKING OVR INTO TUE. PARTLY/MOSTLY
SUNNY TUE WITH HI TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO NR 70 AT THE
COAST...AND L/M70S ELSW.

HI PRES MOVES TO NR THE SE CONUS CST BY WED...PROVIDING WSW FLO
AND CONTG MILD WX. A WK TROUGH SFC-ALOFT WILL BE APPROACHING FM
THE WNW...WHICH MAY RESULT IN INCRSG CLDNS W AND N...ALG W/ PSBL
ISOLD/SCT SHRAS/TSTMS (HWVR WILL CAP POPS AT 14% THOSE AREAS FOR
NOW). LO TEMPS TUE NGT M40S W AND N TO FAR L50S SE. HI TEMPS WED
IN THE L/M70S N AND NW...TO M/U70S CNTRL/SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS UPPER
CLOSED LOW REMAINS IN VIC OF THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD...FAST MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATE
WEDS NIGHT-EARLY THURS MORNING. GFS CONTINUES TO REMAIN ON THE
SLOWER SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE WRT FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH THE ECMWF
QUICKER. BASED ON WLY FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BACK OVER THE
MIDWEST...OPTED TO REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDS NIGHT OVER
THE NRN AND NERN ZONES AND THEN THURS SOUTH AND EAST OF
RICHMOND...TRENDING SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE SLOWER GFS. HIGHS THURS
AROUND NORMAL...LOW-MID 60S. THEREAFTER...COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SWD FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE MIDWEST...EXTENDING INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRI. HIGHS FRI GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S NE TO
MID 60S SE UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND NWLY WINDS. SRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO LIFT INTO THE MIDWEST FRI NIGHT-SAT WITH
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW FORECAST TO PROGRESS EWD ALONG A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF STATES SAT. MOISTURE RETURNS SAT TO GO ALONG
WITH OVERRUNNING AND WEAK PERTURBATIONS ALOFT. INCREASED POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE N TO CHANCE S. HIGHS SAT GENERALLY AROUND 60 ACROSS
THE REGION. SFC LOW MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SAT NIGHT...WITH
ANY REMAINING PRECIP EXPECTED ACROSS THE SE LOCAL AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS SUN...BUT COOL CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S NE TO LOW 60S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS
RESULTING IN ENE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS NEAR
THE COAST WILL INCREASE TO 15-20KT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MVFR AND
IFR CONDITIONS SPREADING RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. IFR
CEILINGS AND OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES. EXPECT SEVERAL HOURS OF
IFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION FROM AROUND 00-03Z
THROUGH AT LEAST 12-15Z. WIDESPREAD RAIN WHICH IS ALREADY MOVING
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VA WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST AND WILL NOT DIMINISH
FROM SW- NE UNTIL 09Z TO 12Z MONDAY. ANOTHER IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING A CHC OF SHRA/TSRA.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY
CONDITIONS TO RETURN. A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID MS
VALLEY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NE COAST AND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
LOCATED NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER. GRADIENT HAS RESULTED IN INCREASING
ELY WINDS OVER THE WATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SCA HEADLINES NOW IN
EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS. SPEEDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS HAVE BUILT
TO 6 FT IN THE NRN WATERS AND 3-4 FT ELSEWHERE. WAVES GENERALLY 2-3
FT. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT...WITH
SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THIS
IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR A SHORT DURATION (~3-5 HR) OF STRONG SCA
CONDITIONS IN SE FLOW. HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE
MIDNIGHT TO 4-5AM TIMEFRAME FOR THE STRONGEST SE WINDS OF 20-25 KT
WITH GUSTS OF 30 KT. BUMPED UP SEAS TO 6-9 FT (HIGHEST IN THE NRN
COASTAL WATERS) LATE TONIGHT. FOG ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS
TONIGHT AS WAA OCCURS OVER COOL WATER. GRADIENT WINDS DIMINISH MON
MORNING AS FLOW BECOMES SLY 10-15 KT. FAVORABLE FETCH/SWELL WILL
KEEP SEAS ELEVATED THRU THE DAY...BUT SUBSIDING TO 4 TO 6 FT. COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE MON...CROSSING THE REGION TUES
NIGHT. SLIGHT UPTICK IN SLY WINDS EXPECTED MON EVENING IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT...AROUND 15 KT IN THE BAY AND 20 KT COASTAL WATERS.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT...WITH STRONG GUSTY
WINDS POSSIBLE. SEAS SUBSIDE LAST MON NIGHT-TUES MORNING THANKS TO
WLY WINDS. SCA CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. HEADLINES
HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THRU 7AM TUES FOR COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF
PARRAMORE ISLAND AND THRU 1PM TUES NORTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AVG QPF 0.75-1.50" TNGT OVR MOST OF THE RIVER BASINS WILL RESULT
IN RIVER LVLS TO PSBLY RISE TO 1/2-NR FULL BANKFULL TUE INTO WED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW TODAY FOLLOWED BY MODEST SE FLOW TONIGHT
WILL ALLOW TIDAL ANOMALIES TO BUILD TO ~1.0FT ABOVE NORMAL LATER
TONIGHT PRIMARILY IN THE MIDDLE BAY AND ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
OF THE MD ERN SHORE. SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING
WILL HELP MAINTAIN ~1.0 FT ANOMALIES IN THE MIDDLE BAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY AS THE
FLOW BECOMES OFFSHORE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM
NEAR TERM...ALB/JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ/JAO
MARINE...SAM
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 192205
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
605 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT...PUSHING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE
LOCAL AREA. A COLD FRONT THEN CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CLDNS HAS SPREAD ACRS MOST OF THE FA AS OF MID AFTN...W/ RA MAKING
STEADY PROGRESS INTO CNTRL/SRN PORTIONS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN SETTING
UP FOR A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVR THE FA. W/ HI PRES
OFF OF NEW ENG...AND LO PRES W OF THE MTNS...A SIGNFICANT INFLO OF
DP LYRD MOISTURE XPCD OVRNGT AS A WARM FRONT PROGRESSES NE
THROUGH THE FA. HAVE CONTD MENTION OF HVY RA...AND MDLS DO HINT AT
MINIMAL INSTABILITY PUSHING NWD INVOF ERN PORTIONS OF VA AND OVR
NE NC LT THIS EVE/AFT MDNGT SO ADDED SLGT CHC-CHC THUNDER. QPF
AVGG 0.75-1.50"...MAYBE LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS. PCPN AMTS TO RMN BLO
6-12 HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE SO NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE
ISSUED. MAJORITY OF THE RA SHIFTS TO THE CST BY 12Z/20. THERE WILL
ALSO BE GUSTY ESE WNDS TO 20-30 MPH...HIGHEST NR THE CST. ADDED
AREAS OF FG (VSBYS 1-3NM) OVR THE WTRS - AFT MDNGT...DUE TO WARMER
AIR SPREADING OVR COOLER WTRS. LO TEMPS TNGT FM THE M50S TO M60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE AREA OF RAIN WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST MON MRNG...THEN CONCERN
SHIFTS TO A TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY LATE MON
AFTN/EVE (LIKELY LEADING TO SCT SHWRS/TSTMS). SPC CONTS TO PUT THE
AREA OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MON AFTN/EVE FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX IS CERTAINLY THERE GIVEN ML CAPE VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE...STEEP LAPSE
RATES...AND A MODEST SHEAR PROFILE. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT POSSIBLE
STRONG/ISOLD SVR STORMS IN THE HWO FOR LATE MON AFTN/EVE. OTW...VRB
CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY AND BREEZY/WARMER MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON. HI TEMPS
IN THE 70S AT THE CST...80 TO 85 ELSW.

COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FA MON NGT WITH CHC POPS...THEN
DRYING/COOLER WESTERLY FLOW TAKING OVR INTO TUE. PARTLY/MOSTLY
SUNNY TUE WITH HI TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO NR 70 AT THE
COAST...AND L/M70S ELSW.

HI PRES MOVES TO NR THE SE CONUS CST BY WED...PROVIDING WSW FLO
AND CONTG MILD WX. A WK TROUGH SFC-ALOFT WILL BE APPROACHING FM
THE WNW...WHICH MAY RESULT IN INCRSG CLDNS W AND N...ALG W/ PSBL
ISOLD/SCT SHRAS/TSTMS (HWVR WILL CAP POPS AT 14% THOSE AREAS FOR
NOW). LO TEMPS TUE NGT M40S W AND N TO FAR L50S SE. HI TEMPS WED
IN THE L/M70S N AND NW...TO M/U70S CNTRL/SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS UPPER
CLOSED LOW REMAINS IN VIC OF THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD...FAST MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATE
WEDS NIGHT-EARLY THURS MORNING. GFS CONTINUES TO REMAIN ON THE
SLOWER SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE WRT FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH THE ECMWF
QUICKER. BASED ON WLY FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BACK OVER THE
MIDWEST...OPTED TO REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDS NIGHT OVER
THE NRN AND NERN ZONES AND THEN THURS SOUTH AND EAST OF
RICHMOND...TRENDING SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE SLOWER GFS. HIGHS THURS
AROUND NORMAL...LOW-MID 60S. THEREAFTER...COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SWD FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE MIDWEST...EXTENDING INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRI. HIGHS FRI GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S NE TO
MID 60S SE UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND NWLY WINDS. SRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO LIFT INTO THE MIDWEST FRI NIGHT-SAT WITH
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW FORECAST TO PROGRESS EWD ALONG A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF STATES SAT. MOISTURE RETURNS SAT TO GO ALONG
WITH OVERRUNNING AND WEAK PERTURBATIONS ALOFT. INCREASED POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE N TO CHANCE S. HIGHS SAT GENERALLY AROUND 60 ACROSS
THE REGION. SFC LOW MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SAT NIGHT...WITH
ANY REMAINING PRECIP EXPECTED ACROSS THE SE LOCAL AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS SUN...BUT COOL CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S NE TO LOW 60S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS
RESULTING IN ENE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS NEAR
THE COAST WILL INCREASE TO 15-20KT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MVFR AND
IFR CONDITIONS SPREADING RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. IFR
CEILINGS AND OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES. EXPECT SEVERAL HOURS OF
IFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION FROM AROUND 00-03Z
THROUGH AT LEAST 12-15Z. WIDESPREAD RAIN WHICH IS ALREADY MOVING
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VA WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST AND WILL NOT DIMINISH
FROM SW- NE UNTIL 09Z TO 12Z MONDAY. ANOTHER IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING A CHC OF SHRA/TSRA.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY
CONDITIONS TO RETURN. A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID MS
VALLEY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NE COAST AND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
LOCATED NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER. GRADIENT HAS RESULTED IN INCREASING
ELY WINDS OVER THE WATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SCA HEADLINES NOW IN
EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS. SPEEDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS HAVE BUILT
TO 6 FT IN THE NRN WATERS AND 3-4 FT ELSEWHERE. WAVES GENERALLY 2-3
FT. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT...WITH
SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THIS
IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR A SHORT DURATION (~3-5 HR) OF STRONG SCA
CONDITIONS IN SE FLOW. HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE
MIDNIGHT TO 4-5AM TIMEFRAME FOR THE STRONGEST SE WINDS OF 20-25 KT
WITH GUSTS OF 30 KT. BUMPED UP SEAS TO 6-9 FT (HIGHEST IN THE NRN
COASTAL WATERS) LATE TONIGHT. FOG ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS
TONIGHT AS WAA OCCURS OVER COOL WATER. GRADIENT WINDS DIMINISH MON
MORNING AS FLOW BECOMES SLY 10-15 KT. FAVORABLE FETCH/SWELL WILL
KEEP SEAS ELEVATED THRU THE DAY...BUT SUBSIDING TO 4 TO 6 FT. COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE MON...CROSSING THE REGION TUES
NIGHT. SLIGHT UPTICK IN SLY WINDS EXPECTED MON EVENING IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT...AROUND 15 KT IN THE BAY AND 20 KT COASTAL WATERS.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT...WITH STRONG GUSTY
WINDS POSSIBLE. SEAS SUBSIDE LAST MON NIGHT-TUES MORNING THANKS TO
WLY WINDS. SCA CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. HEADLINES
HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THRU 7AM TUES FOR COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF
PARRAMORE ISLAND AND THRU 1PM TUES NORTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AVG QPF 0.75-1.50" TNGT OVR MOST OF THE RIVER BASINS WILL RESULT
IN RIVER LVLS TO PSBLY RISE TO 1/2-NR FULL BANKFULL TUE INTO WED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW TODAY FOLLOWED BY MODEST SE FLOW TONIGHT
WILL ALLOW TIDAL ANOMALIES TO BUILD TO ~1.0FT ABOVE NORMAL LATER
TONIGHT PRIMARILY IN THE MIDDLE BAY AND ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
OF THE MD ERN SHORE. SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING
WILL HELP MAINTAIN ~1.0 FT ANOMALIES IN THE MIDDLE BAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY AS THE
FLOW BECOMES OFFSHORE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM
NEAR TERM...ALB/JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ/JAO
MARINE...SAM
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 192205
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
605 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT...PUSHING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE
LOCAL AREA. A COLD FRONT THEN CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CLDNS HAS SPREAD ACRS MOST OF THE FA AS OF MID AFTN...W/ RA MAKING
STEADY PROGRESS INTO CNTRL/SRN PORTIONS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN SETTING
UP FOR A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVR THE FA. W/ HI PRES
OFF OF NEW ENG...AND LO PRES W OF THE MTNS...A SIGNFICANT INFLO OF
DP LYRD MOISTURE XPCD OVRNGT AS A WARM FRONT PROGRESSES NE
THROUGH THE FA. HAVE CONTD MENTION OF HVY RA...AND MDLS DO HINT AT
MINIMAL INSTABILITY PUSHING NWD INVOF ERN PORTIONS OF VA AND OVR
NE NC LT THIS EVE/AFT MDNGT SO ADDED SLGT CHC-CHC THUNDER. QPF
AVGG 0.75-1.50"...MAYBE LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS. PCPN AMTS TO RMN BLO
6-12 HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE SO NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE
ISSUED. MAJORITY OF THE RA SHIFTS TO THE CST BY 12Z/20. THERE WILL
ALSO BE GUSTY ESE WNDS TO 20-30 MPH...HIGHEST NR THE CST. ADDED
AREAS OF FG (VSBYS 1-3NM) OVR THE WTRS - AFT MDNGT...DUE TO WARMER
AIR SPREADING OVR COOLER WTRS. LO TEMPS TNGT FM THE M50S TO M60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE AREA OF RAIN WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST MON MRNG...THEN CONCERN
SHIFTS TO A TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY LATE MON
AFTN/EVE (LIKELY LEADING TO SCT SHWRS/TSTMS). SPC CONTS TO PUT THE
AREA OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MON AFTN/EVE FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX IS CERTAINLY THERE GIVEN ML CAPE VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE...STEEP LAPSE
RATES...AND A MODEST SHEAR PROFILE. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT POSSIBLE
STRONG/ISOLD SVR STORMS IN THE HWO FOR LATE MON AFTN/EVE. OTW...VRB
CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY AND BREEZY/WARMER MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON. HI TEMPS
IN THE 70S AT THE CST...80 TO 85 ELSW.

COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FA MON NGT WITH CHC POPS...THEN
DRYING/COOLER WESTERLY FLOW TAKING OVR INTO TUE. PARTLY/MOSTLY
SUNNY TUE WITH HI TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO NR 70 AT THE
COAST...AND L/M70S ELSW.

HI PRES MOVES TO NR THE SE CONUS CST BY WED...PROVIDING WSW FLO
AND CONTG MILD WX. A WK TROUGH SFC-ALOFT WILL BE APPROACHING FM
THE WNW...WHICH MAY RESULT IN INCRSG CLDNS W AND N...ALG W/ PSBL
ISOLD/SCT SHRAS/TSTMS (HWVR WILL CAP POPS AT 14% THOSE AREAS FOR
NOW). LO TEMPS TUE NGT M40S W AND N TO FAR L50S SE. HI TEMPS WED
IN THE L/M70S N AND NW...TO M/U70S CNTRL/SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS UPPER
CLOSED LOW REMAINS IN VIC OF THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD...FAST MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATE
WEDS NIGHT-EARLY THURS MORNING. GFS CONTINUES TO REMAIN ON THE
SLOWER SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE WRT FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH THE ECMWF
QUICKER. BASED ON WLY FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BACK OVER THE
MIDWEST...OPTED TO REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDS NIGHT OVER
THE NRN AND NERN ZONES AND THEN THURS SOUTH AND EAST OF
RICHMOND...TRENDING SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE SLOWER GFS. HIGHS THURS
AROUND NORMAL...LOW-MID 60S. THEREAFTER...COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SWD FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE MIDWEST...EXTENDING INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRI. HIGHS FRI GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S NE TO
MID 60S SE UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND NWLY WINDS. SRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO LIFT INTO THE MIDWEST FRI NIGHT-SAT WITH
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW FORECAST TO PROGRESS EWD ALONG A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF STATES SAT. MOISTURE RETURNS SAT TO GO ALONG
WITH OVERRUNNING AND WEAK PERTURBATIONS ALOFT. INCREASED POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE N TO CHANCE S. HIGHS SAT GENERALLY AROUND 60 ACROSS
THE REGION. SFC LOW MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SAT NIGHT...WITH
ANY REMAINING PRECIP EXPECTED ACROSS THE SE LOCAL AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS SUN...BUT COOL CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S NE TO LOW 60S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS
RESULTING IN ENE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS NEAR
THE COAST WILL INCREASE TO 15-20KT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MVFR AND
IFR CONDITIONS SPREADING RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. IFR
CEILINGS AND OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES. EXPECT SEVERAL HOURS OF
IFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION FROM AROUND 00-03Z
THROUGH AT LEAST 12-15Z. WIDESPREAD RAIN WHICH IS ALREADY MOVING
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VA WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST AND WILL NOT DIMINISH
FROM SW- NE UNTIL 09Z TO 12Z MONDAY. ANOTHER IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING A CHC OF SHRA/TSRA.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY
CONDITIONS TO RETURN. A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID MS
VALLEY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NE COAST AND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
LOCATED NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER. GRADIENT HAS RESULTED IN INCREASING
ELY WINDS OVER THE WATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SCA HEADLINES NOW IN
EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS. SPEEDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS HAVE BUILT
TO 6 FT IN THE NRN WATERS AND 3-4 FT ELSEWHERE. WAVES GENERALLY 2-3
FT. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT...WITH
SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THIS
IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR A SHORT DURATION (~3-5 HR) OF STRONG SCA
CONDITIONS IN SE FLOW. HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE
MIDNIGHT TO 4-5AM TIMEFRAME FOR THE STRONGEST SE WINDS OF 20-25 KT
WITH GUSTS OF 30 KT. BUMPED UP SEAS TO 6-9 FT (HIGHEST IN THE NRN
COASTAL WATERS) LATE TONIGHT. FOG ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS
TONIGHT AS WAA OCCURS OVER COOL WATER. GRADIENT WINDS DIMINISH MON
MORNING AS FLOW BECOMES SLY 10-15 KT. FAVORABLE FETCH/SWELL WILL
KEEP SEAS ELEVATED THRU THE DAY...BUT SUBSIDING TO 4 TO 6 FT. COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE MON...CROSSING THE REGION TUES
NIGHT. SLIGHT UPTICK IN SLY WINDS EXPECTED MON EVENING IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT...AROUND 15 KT IN THE BAY AND 20 KT COASTAL WATERS.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT...WITH STRONG GUSTY
WINDS POSSIBLE. SEAS SUBSIDE LAST MON NIGHT-TUES MORNING THANKS TO
WLY WINDS. SCA CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. HEADLINES
HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THRU 7AM TUES FOR COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF
PARRAMORE ISLAND AND THRU 1PM TUES NORTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AVG QPF 0.75-1.50" TNGT OVR MOST OF THE RIVER BASINS WILL RESULT
IN RIVER LVLS TO PSBLY RISE TO 1/2-NR FULL BANKFULL TUE INTO WED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW TODAY FOLLOWED BY MODEST SE FLOW TONIGHT
WILL ALLOW TIDAL ANOMALIES TO BUILD TO ~1.0FT ABOVE NORMAL LATER
TONIGHT PRIMARILY IN THE MIDDLE BAY AND ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
OF THE MD ERN SHORE. SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING
WILL HELP MAINTAIN ~1.0 FT ANOMALIES IN THE MIDDLE BAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY AS THE
FLOW BECOMES OFFSHORE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM
NEAR TERM...ALB/JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ/JAO
MARINE...SAM
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 192205
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
605 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT...PUSHING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE
LOCAL AREA. A COLD FRONT THEN CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CLDNS HAS SPREAD ACRS MOST OF THE FA AS OF MID AFTN...W/ RA MAKING
STEADY PROGRESS INTO CNTRL/SRN PORTIONS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN SETTING
UP FOR A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVR THE FA. W/ HI PRES
OFF OF NEW ENG...AND LO PRES W OF THE MTNS...A SIGNFICANT INFLO OF
DP LYRD MOISTURE XPCD OVRNGT AS A WARM FRONT PROGRESSES NE
THROUGH THE FA. HAVE CONTD MENTION OF HVY RA...AND MDLS DO HINT AT
MINIMAL INSTABILITY PUSHING NWD INVOF ERN PORTIONS OF VA AND OVR
NE NC LT THIS EVE/AFT MDNGT SO ADDED SLGT CHC-CHC THUNDER. QPF
AVGG 0.75-1.50"...MAYBE LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS. PCPN AMTS TO RMN BLO
6-12 HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE SO NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE
ISSUED. MAJORITY OF THE RA SHIFTS TO THE CST BY 12Z/20. THERE WILL
ALSO BE GUSTY ESE WNDS TO 20-30 MPH...HIGHEST NR THE CST. ADDED
AREAS OF FG (VSBYS 1-3NM) OVR THE WTRS - AFT MDNGT...DUE TO WARMER
AIR SPREADING OVR COOLER WTRS. LO TEMPS TNGT FM THE M50S TO M60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE AREA OF RAIN WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST MON MRNG...THEN CONCERN
SHIFTS TO A TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY LATE MON
AFTN/EVE (LIKELY LEADING TO SCT SHWRS/TSTMS). SPC CONTS TO PUT THE
AREA OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MON AFTN/EVE FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX IS CERTAINLY THERE GIVEN ML CAPE VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE...STEEP LAPSE
RATES...AND A MODEST SHEAR PROFILE. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT POSSIBLE
STRONG/ISOLD SVR STORMS IN THE HWO FOR LATE MON AFTN/EVE. OTW...VRB
CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY AND BREEZY/WARMER MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON. HI TEMPS
IN THE 70S AT THE CST...80 TO 85 ELSW.

COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FA MON NGT WITH CHC POPS...THEN
DRYING/COOLER WESTERLY FLOW TAKING OVR INTO TUE. PARTLY/MOSTLY
SUNNY TUE WITH HI TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO NR 70 AT THE
COAST...AND L/M70S ELSW.

HI PRES MOVES TO NR THE SE CONUS CST BY WED...PROVIDING WSW FLO
AND CONTG MILD WX. A WK TROUGH SFC-ALOFT WILL BE APPROACHING FM
THE WNW...WHICH MAY RESULT IN INCRSG CLDNS W AND N...ALG W/ PSBL
ISOLD/SCT SHRAS/TSTMS (HWVR WILL CAP POPS AT 14% THOSE AREAS FOR
NOW). LO TEMPS TUE NGT M40S W AND N TO FAR L50S SE. HI TEMPS WED
IN THE L/M70S N AND NW...TO M/U70S CNTRL/SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS UPPER
CLOSED LOW REMAINS IN VIC OF THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD...FAST MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATE
WEDS NIGHT-EARLY THURS MORNING. GFS CONTINUES TO REMAIN ON THE
SLOWER SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE WRT FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH THE ECMWF
QUICKER. BASED ON WLY FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BACK OVER THE
MIDWEST...OPTED TO REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDS NIGHT OVER
THE NRN AND NERN ZONES AND THEN THURS SOUTH AND EAST OF
RICHMOND...TRENDING SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE SLOWER GFS. HIGHS THURS
AROUND NORMAL...LOW-MID 60S. THEREAFTER...COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SWD FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE MIDWEST...EXTENDING INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRI. HIGHS FRI GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S NE TO
MID 60S SE UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND NWLY WINDS. SRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO LIFT INTO THE MIDWEST FRI NIGHT-SAT WITH
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW FORECAST TO PROGRESS EWD ALONG A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF STATES SAT. MOISTURE RETURNS SAT TO GO ALONG
WITH OVERRUNNING AND WEAK PERTURBATIONS ALOFT. INCREASED POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE N TO CHANCE S. HIGHS SAT GENERALLY AROUND 60 ACROSS
THE REGION. SFC LOW MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SAT NIGHT...WITH
ANY REMAINING PRECIP EXPECTED ACROSS THE SE LOCAL AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS SUN...BUT COOL CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S NE TO LOW 60S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS
RESULTING IN ENE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS NEAR
THE COAST WILL INCREASE TO 15-20KT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MVFR AND
IFR CONDITIONS SPREADING RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. IFR
CEILINGS AND OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES. EXPECT SEVERAL HOURS OF
IFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION FROM AROUND 00-03Z
THROUGH AT LEAST 12-15Z. WIDESPREAD RAIN WHICH IS ALREADY MOVING
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VA WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST AND WILL NOT DIMINISH
FROM SW- NE UNTIL 09Z TO 12Z MONDAY. ANOTHER IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING A CHC OF SHRA/TSRA.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY
CONDITIONS TO RETURN. A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID MS
VALLEY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NE COAST AND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
LOCATED NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER. GRADIENT HAS RESULTED IN INCREASING
ELY WINDS OVER THE WATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SCA HEADLINES NOW IN
EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS. SPEEDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS HAVE BUILT
TO 6 FT IN THE NRN WATERS AND 3-4 FT ELSEWHERE. WAVES GENERALLY 2-3
FT. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT...WITH
SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THIS
IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR A SHORT DURATION (~3-5 HR) OF STRONG SCA
CONDITIONS IN SE FLOW. HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE
MIDNIGHT TO 4-5AM TIMEFRAME FOR THE STRONGEST SE WINDS OF 20-25 KT
WITH GUSTS OF 30 KT. BUMPED UP SEAS TO 6-9 FT (HIGHEST IN THE NRN
COASTAL WATERS) LATE TONIGHT. FOG ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS
TONIGHT AS WAA OCCURS OVER COOL WATER. GRADIENT WINDS DIMINISH MON
MORNING AS FLOW BECOMES SLY 10-15 KT. FAVORABLE FETCH/SWELL WILL
KEEP SEAS ELEVATED THRU THE DAY...BUT SUBSIDING TO 4 TO 6 FT. COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE MON...CROSSING THE REGION TUES
NIGHT. SLIGHT UPTICK IN SLY WINDS EXPECTED MON EVENING IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT...AROUND 15 KT IN THE BAY AND 20 KT COASTAL WATERS.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT...WITH STRONG GUSTY
WINDS POSSIBLE. SEAS SUBSIDE LAST MON NIGHT-TUES MORNING THANKS TO
WLY WINDS. SCA CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. HEADLINES
HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THRU 7AM TUES FOR COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF
PARRAMORE ISLAND AND THRU 1PM TUES NORTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AVG QPF 0.75-1.50" TNGT OVR MOST OF THE RIVER BASINS WILL RESULT
IN RIVER LVLS TO PSBLY RISE TO 1/2-NR FULL BANKFULL TUE INTO WED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW TODAY FOLLOWED BY MODEST SE FLOW TONIGHT
WILL ALLOW TIDAL ANOMALIES TO BUILD TO ~1.0FT ABOVE NORMAL LATER
TONIGHT PRIMARILY IN THE MIDDLE BAY AND ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
OF THE MD ERN SHORE. SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING
WILL HELP MAINTAIN ~1.0 FT ANOMALIES IN THE MIDDLE BAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY AS THE
FLOW BECOMES OFFSHORE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM
NEAR TERM...ALB/JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ/JAO
MARINE...SAM
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KRNK 192033 CCA
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
412 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST
AND COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON
MONDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 333 PM EDT SUNDAY...

FLOOD WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO TONIGHT.

A WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH THIS EVENING AND CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE AND HIGHER PWATS WILL
INCREASE IN THE WARM ADVECTION WITH THE NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. THE REGIONAL RADAR IMAGE SHOWED WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTHEAST US. THERE ARE
SOME CONCERNS OF STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON MAY
TAKE SOME OF THE MOISTURE AWAY FROM OUR AREA. OUR LOCAL RNK
WRFARW...HIRESW-ARW...NAM AND GFS WAIT UNTIL AFTER 00Z BEFORE
BRINGING IN HEAVIER CONVECTION THIS EVENING...WHILE HRRR AND ECMWF
ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH TIMING. THE HRRR AND HIRESW-ARW LIFTS THE
PRECIPITATION NORTHEAST WITH MOST OF RAIN PULLING OUT BY 06-08Z.
USED A BLEND OF HRRR AND NAM FOR POPS...TAPERING POPS BACK AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
WITH CLOUD COVER HINDERING INSTABILITIES. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL
JET INCREASING TO 50-60 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL RESULT IN
STRONG UPSLOPE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE STRONG WINDS THROUGH A
DEEP LAYER WILL PROVIDE LARGE HELICITY VALUES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. THE DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK (SWODY1) PLACED
A MARGINAL (5 PERCENT CHANCE OF WIND) ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
CWA. PLAYED LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO ADJMAV WITH READINGS FROM
THE UPPER 40S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN
THE PIEDMONT.

A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXPECTED MONDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MONDAY. INITIALLY CUT BACK POPS CLOSER
TO NAM FOR MONDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASED TO LIKELY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SPC CONTINUES OUR SLIGHT RISK FOR MONDAY ACROSS MOST OF
OUR CWA. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE DYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH HEALTHY
SHEAR AND DECENT CAPES AROUND 2K.  IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE BREEZY WITH
EFFICIENT DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER IN A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.
THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLEARING MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT SUNDAY...

TAIL END OF COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL BE EXITING
THE AREA JUST AFT 00Z. HOWEVER...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH...ALMOST
WINTERLIKE PATTERN CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AND DEEPEN ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WITH NUMEROUS SPOKES OF PVA/SHORT WAVES REMAINING
UPSTREAM. THIS LEAVES THE REGION...ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
A VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN. AT A MINIMUM...EXPECT VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS. TIMING OF EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL BE THE KEY TO THE
TIMES FOR THE BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS. FOR SEVERAL DAYS...THE
GFS HAS INSISTED ON A SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION WED WITH WIDESPREAD -SHRA AS A RESULT. THE OTHER MODELS
REMAIN LACKLUSTER WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT DO SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME
SMALL CHANCE WITHIN THIS TIME FRAME. GIVEN THE UNSETTLED NATURE OF
THE PATTERN WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME UPPER
DISTURBANCES...CANNOT REALLY DROP POPS AT ANY TIME. BEST FOCUS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF WV/FAR SW VA. IN
ADDITION...ENOUGH INSTABILITY SUGGESTED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT...TO
INTRODUCE ISOLD TSRA WITH THE WED DISTURBANCE AS WELL.

850MB TEMPS DROP TO NEAR 0C ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY WED...BUT THE BETTER COLD ADVECTION COMES IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD BEHIND THE WED DISTURBANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...

BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE AND DOMINATES THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...GRADUALLY SHIFTING FURTHER ESE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
THIS KEEPS THE REGION IN AN UNSTABLE/UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW WITH
NUMEROUS EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES. MODELS VARY CONSIDERABLY AS TO THE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE DISTURBANCES...BUT ENOUGH AGREEMENT
THAT POPS CANNOT BE DROPPED REALLY AT ANY TIME THE OVERALL TREND
IS TO PUSH THE BETTER MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES AND 850MB TEMPS DROP BELOW 0C IN THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES. THE ENTIRE PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH LOW CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WITH THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT THE
DRIEST. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...NO REAL CLEAR CONCERN AT THIS POINT FOR FROST/FREEZE
BECAUSE OF CYCLONIC FLOW AND CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 142 PM EDT SUNDAY...

KFCX WSR-88D SHOWED RAIN SPREADING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AND IFR WITH RAIN.

A STRONG SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WHICH WILL BRING WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30
KTS. WITH A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...AFTER SUNSET THESE STRONG WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH THE SURFACE. SHORTEN THE TIME WINDOW AND KEPT LLWS IN THE
KLWB AND KBCB TAFS AFTER 00Z/8PM.

CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AND WILL
REMAIN LOW OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER MONDAY
WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
FRONT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS IS LIKELY TO KEEP
PERIODS OF MVFR AND BRIEF IFR IN STORMS UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS THE
REGION MONDAY EVENING.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION...

VFR RETURNS LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS.

THEN THE NEXT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE
IN THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SUNDAY...

HAVE EXPANDED THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS OF
VIRGINIA.

A DEEP LAYER FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE OF SOUTHEAST WINDS...WILL BE INCREASING TO AROUND 50
KNOTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
JUST ABOVE 1.5 INCHES WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE
STRONGEST LIFT AND HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE FROM 18Z/2PM
THROUGH 06Z/2AM SO HAVE ADDED HEAVY RAIN TO THE FORECAST ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH
12Z/8AM MONDAY. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES WERE ROUGHLY 1.5 TO
2.5 INCHES FOR 3 HOURS. SO THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FLOODING ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS.

PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE FOR MAINSTEM RIVERS SUGGESTS A SMALL
POSSIBILITY FOR MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE DAN RIVER AND NEW RIVER.
HOWEVER...THE IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ018>020-022>024-
     033>035.
     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ009-012>017-032.
NC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ001>003-018>020.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS/KK
HYDROLOGY...KK



000
FXUS61 KRNK 192033 CCA
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
412 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST
AND COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON
MONDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 333 PM EDT SUNDAY...

FLOOD WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO TONIGHT.

A WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH THIS EVENING AND CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE AND HIGHER PWATS WILL
INCREASE IN THE WARM ADVECTION WITH THE NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. THE REGIONAL RADAR IMAGE SHOWED WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTHEAST US. THERE ARE
SOME CONCERNS OF STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON MAY
TAKE SOME OF THE MOISTURE AWAY FROM OUR AREA. OUR LOCAL RNK
WRFARW...HIRESW-ARW...NAM AND GFS WAIT UNTIL AFTER 00Z BEFORE
BRINGING IN HEAVIER CONVECTION THIS EVENING...WHILE HRRR AND ECMWF
ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH TIMING. THE HRRR AND HIRESW-ARW LIFTS THE
PRECIPITATION NORTHEAST WITH MOST OF RAIN PULLING OUT BY 06-08Z.
USED A BLEND OF HRRR AND NAM FOR POPS...TAPERING POPS BACK AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
WITH CLOUD COVER HINDERING INSTABILITIES. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL
JET INCREASING TO 50-60 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL RESULT IN
STRONG UPSLOPE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE STRONG WINDS THROUGH A
DEEP LAYER WILL PROVIDE LARGE HELICITY VALUES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. THE DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK (SWODY1) PLACED
A MARGINAL (5 PERCENT CHANCE OF WIND) ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
CWA. PLAYED LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO ADJMAV WITH READINGS FROM
THE UPPER 40S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN
THE PIEDMONT.

A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXPECTED MONDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MONDAY. INITIALLY CUT BACK POPS CLOSER
TO NAM FOR MONDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASED TO LIKELY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SPC CONTINUES OUR SLIGHT RISK FOR MONDAY ACROSS MOST OF
OUR CWA. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE DYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH HEALTHY
SHEAR AND DECENT CAPES AROUND 2K.  IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE BREEZY WITH
EFFICIENT DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER IN A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.
THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLEARING MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT SUNDAY...

TAIL END OF COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL BE EXITING
THE AREA JUST AFT 00Z. HOWEVER...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH...ALMOST
WINTERLIKE PATTERN CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AND DEEPEN ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WITH NUMEROUS SPOKES OF PVA/SHORT WAVES REMAINING
UPSTREAM. THIS LEAVES THE REGION...ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
A VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN. AT A MINIMUM...EXPECT VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS. TIMING OF EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL BE THE KEY TO THE
TIMES FOR THE BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS. FOR SEVERAL DAYS...THE
GFS HAS INSISTED ON A SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION WED WITH WIDESPREAD -SHRA AS A RESULT. THE OTHER MODELS
REMAIN LACKLUSTER WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT DO SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME
SMALL CHANCE WITHIN THIS TIME FRAME. GIVEN THE UNSETTLED NATURE OF
THE PATTERN WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME UPPER
DISTURBANCES...CANNOT REALLY DROP POPS AT ANY TIME. BEST FOCUS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF WV/FAR SW VA. IN
ADDITION...ENOUGH INSTABILITY SUGGESTED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT...TO
INTRODUCE ISOLD TSRA WITH THE WED DISTURBANCE AS WELL.

850MB TEMPS DROP TO NEAR 0C ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY WED...BUT THE BETTER COLD ADVECTION COMES IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD BEHIND THE WED DISTURBANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...

BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE AND DOMINATES THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...GRADUALLY SHIFTING FURTHER ESE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
THIS KEEPS THE REGION IN AN UNSTABLE/UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW WITH
NUMEROUS EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES. MODELS VARY CONSIDERABLY AS TO THE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE DISTURBANCES...BUT ENOUGH AGREEMENT
THAT POPS CANNOT BE DROPPED REALLY AT ANY TIME THE OVERALL TREND
IS TO PUSH THE BETTER MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES AND 850MB TEMPS DROP BELOW 0C IN THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES. THE ENTIRE PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH LOW CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WITH THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT THE
DRIEST. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...NO REAL CLEAR CONCERN AT THIS POINT FOR FROST/FREEZE
BECAUSE OF CYCLONIC FLOW AND CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 142 PM EDT SUNDAY...

KFCX WSR-88D SHOWED RAIN SPREADING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AND IFR WITH RAIN.

A STRONG SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WHICH WILL BRING WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30
KTS. WITH A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...AFTER SUNSET THESE STRONG WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH THE SURFACE. SHORTEN THE TIME WINDOW AND KEPT LLWS IN THE
KLWB AND KBCB TAFS AFTER 00Z/8PM.

CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AND WILL
REMAIN LOW OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER MONDAY
WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
FRONT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS IS LIKELY TO KEEP
PERIODS OF MVFR AND BRIEF IFR IN STORMS UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS THE
REGION MONDAY EVENING.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION...

VFR RETURNS LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS.

THEN THE NEXT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE
IN THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SUNDAY...

HAVE EXPANDED THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS OF
VIRGINIA.

A DEEP LAYER FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE OF SOUTHEAST WINDS...WILL BE INCREASING TO AROUND 50
KNOTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
JUST ABOVE 1.5 INCHES WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE
STRONGEST LIFT AND HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE FROM 18Z/2PM
THROUGH 06Z/2AM SO HAVE ADDED HEAVY RAIN TO THE FORECAST ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH
12Z/8AM MONDAY. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES WERE ROUGHLY 1.5 TO
2.5 INCHES FOR 3 HOURS. SO THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FLOODING ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS.

PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE FOR MAINSTEM RIVERS SUGGESTS A SMALL
POSSIBILITY FOR MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE DAN RIVER AND NEW RIVER.
HOWEVER...THE IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ018>020-022>024-
     033>035.
     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ009-012>017-032.
NC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ001>003-018>020.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS/KK
HYDROLOGY...KK



000
FXUS61 KRNK 192033 CCA
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
412 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST
AND COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON
MONDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 333 PM EDT SUNDAY...

FLOOD WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO TONIGHT.

A WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH THIS EVENING AND CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE AND HIGHER PWATS WILL
INCREASE IN THE WARM ADVECTION WITH THE NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. THE REGIONAL RADAR IMAGE SHOWED WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTHEAST US. THERE ARE
SOME CONCERNS OF STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON MAY
TAKE SOME OF THE MOISTURE AWAY FROM OUR AREA. OUR LOCAL RNK
WRFARW...HIRESW-ARW...NAM AND GFS WAIT UNTIL AFTER 00Z BEFORE
BRINGING IN HEAVIER CONVECTION THIS EVENING...WHILE HRRR AND ECMWF
ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH TIMING. THE HRRR AND HIRESW-ARW LIFTS THE
PRECIPITATION NORTHEAST WITH MOST OF RAIN PULLING OUT BY 06-08Z.
USED A BLEND OF HRRR AND NAM FOR POPS...TAPERING POPS BACK AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
WITH CLOUD COVER HINDERING INSTABILITIES. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL
JET INCREASING TO 50-60 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL RESULT IN
STRONG UPSLOPE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE STRONG WINDS THROUGH A
DEEP LAYER WILL PROVIDE LARGE HELICITY VALUES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. THE DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK (SWODY1) PLACED
A MARGINAL (5 PERCENT CHANCE OF WIND) ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
CWA. PLAYED LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO ADJMAV WITH READINGS FROM
THE UPPER 40S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN
THE PIEDMONT.

A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXPECTED MONDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MONDAY. INITIALLY CUT BACK POPS CLOSER
TO NAM FOR MONDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASED TO LIKELY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SPC CONTINUES OUR SLIGHT RISK FOR MONDAY ACROSS MOST OF
OUR CWA. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE DYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH HEALTHY
SHEAR AND DECENT CAPES AROUND 2K.  IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE BREEZY WITH
EFFICIENT DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER IN A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.
THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLEARING MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT SUNDAY...

TAIL END OF COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL BE EXITING
THE AREA JUST AFT 00Z. HOWEVER...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH...ALMOST
WINTERLIKE PATTERN CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AND DEEPEN ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WITH NUMEROUS SPOKES OF PVA/SHORT WAVES REMAINING
UPSTREAM. THIS LEAVES THE REGION...ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
A VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN. AT A MINIMUM...EXPECT VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS. TIMING OF EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL BE THE KEY TO THE
TIMES FOR THE BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS. FOR SEVERAL DAYS...THE
GFS HAS INSISTED ON A SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION WED WITH WIDESPREAD -SHRA AS A RESULT. THE OTHER MODELS
REMAIN LACKLUSTER WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT DO SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME
SMALL CHANCE WITHIN THIS TIME FRAME. GIVEN THE UNSETTLED NATURE OF
THE PATTERN WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME UPPER
DISTURBANCES...CANNOT REALLY DROP POPS AT ANY TIME. BEST FOCUS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF WV/FAR SW VA. IN
ADDITION...ENOUGH INSTABILITY SUGGESTED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT...TO
INTRODUCE ISOLD TSRA WITH THE WED DISTURBANCE AS WELL.

850MB TEMPS DROP TO NEAR 0C ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY WED...BUT THE BETTER COLD ADVECTION COMES IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD BEHIND THE WED DISTURBANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...

BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE AND DOMINATES THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...GRADUALLY SHIFTING FURTHER ESE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
THIS KEEPS THE REGION IN AN UNSTABLE/UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW WITH
NUMEROUS EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES. MODELS VARY CONSIDERABLY AS TO THE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE DISTURBANCES...BUT ENOUGH AGREEMENT
THAT POPS CANNOT BE DROPPED REALLY AT ANY TIME THE OVERALL TREND
IS TO PUSH THE BETTER MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES AND 850MB TEMPS DROP BELOW 0C IN THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES. THE ENTIRE PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH LOW CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WITH THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT THE
DRIEST. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...NO REAL CLEAR CONCERN AT THIS POINT FOR FROST/FREEZE
BECAUSE OF CYCLONIC FLOW AND CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 142 PM EDT SUNDAY...

KFCX WSR-88D SHOWED RAIN SPREADING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AND IFR WITH RAIN.

A STRONG SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WHICH WILL BRING WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30
KTS. WITH A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...AFTER SUNSET THESE STRONG WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH THE SURFACE. SHORTEN THE TIME WINDOW AND KEPT LLWS IN THE
KLWB AND KBCB TAFS AFTER 00Z/8PM.

CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AND WILL
REMAIN LOW OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER MONDAY
WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
FRONT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS IS LIKELY TO KEEP
PERIODS OF MVFR AND BRIEF IFR IN STORMS UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS THE
REGION MONDAY EVENING.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION...

VFR RETURNS LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS.

THEN THE NEXT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE
IN THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SUNDAY...

HAVE EXPANDED THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS OF
VIRGINIA.

A DEEP LAYER FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE OF SOUTHEAST WINDS...WILL BE INCREASING TO AROUND 50
KNOTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
JUST ABOVE 1.5 INCHES WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE
STRONGEST LIFT AND HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE FROM 18Z/2PM
THROUGH 06Z/2AM SO HAVE ADDED HEAVY RAIN TO THE FORECAST ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH
12Z/8AM MONDAY. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES WERE ROUGHLY 1.5 TO
2.5 INCHES FOR 3 HOURS. SO THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FLOODING ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS.

PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE FOR MAINSTEM RIVERS SUGGESTS A SMALL
POSSIBILITY FOR MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE DAN RIVER AND NEW RIVER.
HOWEVER...THE IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ018>020-022>024-
     033>035.
     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ009-012>017-032.
NC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ001>003-018>020.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS/KK
HYDROLOGY...KK



000
FXUS61 KRNK 192033 CCA
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
412 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST
AND COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON
MONDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 333 PM EDT SUNDAY...

FLOOD WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO TONIGHT.

A WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH THIS EVENING AND CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE AND HIGHER PWATS WILL
INCREASE IN THE WARM ADVECTION WITH THE NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. THE REGIONAL RADAR IMAGE SHOWED WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTHEAST US. THERE ARE
SOME CONCERNS OF STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON MAY
TAKE SOME OF THE MOISTURE AWAY FROM OUR AREA. OUR LOCAL RNK
WRFARW...HIRESW-ARW...NAM AND GFS WAIT UNTIL AFTER 00Z BEFORE
BRINGING IN HEAVIER CONVECTION THIS EVENING...WHILE HRRR AND ECMWF
ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH TIMING. THE HRRR AND HIRESW-ARW LIFTS THE
PRECIPITATION NORTHEAST WITH MOST OF RAIN PULLING OUT BY 06-08Z.
USED A BLEND OF HRRR AND NAM FOR POPS...TAPERING POPS BACK AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
WITH CLOUD COVER HINDERING INSTABILITIES. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL
JET INCREASING TO 50-60 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL RESULT IN
STRONG UPSLOPE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE STRONG WINDS THROUGH A
DEEP LAYER WILL PROVIDE LARGE HELICITY VALUES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. THE DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK (SWODY1) PLACED
A MARGINAL (5 PERCENT CHANCE OF WIND) ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
CWA. PLAYED LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO ADJMAV WITH READINGS FROM
THE UPPER 40S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN
THE PIEDMONT.

A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXPECTED MONDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MONDAY. INITIALLY CUT BACK POPS CLOSER
TO NAM FOR MONDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASED TO LIKELY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SPC CONTINUES OUR SLIGHT RISK FOR MONDAY ACROSS MOST OF
OUR CWA. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE DYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH HEALTHY
SHEAR AND DECENT CAPES AROUND 2K.  IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE BREEZY WITH
EFFICIENT DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER IN A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.
THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLEARING MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT SUNDAY...

TAIL END OF COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL BE EXITING
THE AREA JUST AFT 00Z. HOWEVER...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH...ALMOST
WINTERLIKE PATTERN CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AND DEEPEN ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WITH NUMEROUS SPOKES OF PVA/SHORT WAVES REMAINING
UPSTREAM. THIS LEAVES THE REGION...ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
A VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN. AT A MINIMUM...EXPECT VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS. TIMING OF EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL BE THE KEY TO THE
TIMES FOR THE BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS. FOR SEVERAL DAYS...THE
GFS HAS INSISTED ON A SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION WED WITH WIDESPREAD -SHRA AS A RESULT. THE OTHER MODELS
REMAIN LACKLUSTER WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT DO SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME
SMALL CHANCE WITHIN THIS TIME FRAME. GIVEN THE UNSETTLED NATURE OF
THE PATTERN WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME UPPER
DISTURBANCES...CANNOT REALLY DROP POPS AT ANY TIME. BEST FOCUS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF WV/FAR SW VA. IN
ADDITION...ENOUGH INSTABILITY SUGGESTED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT...TO
INTRODUCE ISOLD TSRA WITH THE WED DISTURBANCE AS WELL.

850MB TEMPS DROP TO NEAR 0C ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY WED...BUT THE BETTER COLD ADVECTION COMES IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD BEHIND THE WED DISTURBANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...

BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE AND DOMINATES THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...GRADUALLY SHIFTING FURTHER ESE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
THIS KEEPS THE REGION IN AN UNSTABLE/UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW WITH
NUMEROUS EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES. MODELS VARY CONSIDERABLY AS TO THE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE DISTURBANCES...BUT ENOUGH AGREEMENT
THAT POPS CANNOT BE DROPPED REALLY AT ANY TIME THE OVERALL TREND
IS TO PUSH THE BETTER MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES AND 850MB TEMPS DROP BELOW 0C IN THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES. THE ENTIRE PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH LOW CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WITH THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT THE
DRIEST. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...NO REAL CLEAR CONCERN AT THIS POINT FOR FROST/FREEZE
BECAUSE OF CYCLONIC FLOW AND CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 142 PM EDT SUNDAY...

KFCX WSR-88D SHOWED RAIN SPREADING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AND IFR WITH RAIN.

A STRONG SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WHICH WILL BRING WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30
KTS. WITH A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...AFTER SUNSET THESE STRONG WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH THE SURFACE. SHORTEN THE TIME WINDOW AND KEPT LLWS IN THE
KLWB AND KBCB TAFS AFTER 00Z/8PM.

CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AND WILL
REMAIN LOW OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER MONDAY
WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
FRONT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS IS LIKELY TO KEEP
PERIODS OF MVFR AND BRIEF IFR IN STORMS UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS THE
REGION MONDAY EVENING.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION...

VFR RETURNS LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS.

THEN THE NEXT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE
IN THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SUNDAY...

HAVE EXPANDED THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS OF
VIRGINIA.

A DEEP LAYER FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE OF SOUTHEAST WINDS...WILL BE INCREASING TO AROUND 50
KNOTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
JUST ABOVE 1.5 INCHES WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE
STRONGEST LIFT AND HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE FROM 18Z/2PM
THROUGH 06Z/2AM SO HAVE ADDED HEAVY RAIN TO THE FORECAST ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH
12Z/8AM MONDAY. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES WERE ROUGHLY 1.5 TO
2.5 INCHES FOR 3 HOURS. SO THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FLOODING ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS.

PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE FOR MAINSTEM RIVERS SUGGESTS A SMALL
POSSIBILITY FOR MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE DAN RIVER AND NEW RIVER.
HOWEVER...THE IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ018>020-022>024-
     033>035.
     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ009-012>017-032.
NC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ001>003-018>020.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS/KK
HYDROLOGY...KK



000
FXUS61 KRNK 192033 CCA
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
412 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST
AND COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON
MONDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 333 PM EDT SUNDAY...

FLOOD WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO TONIGHT.

A WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH THIS EVENING AND CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE AND HIGHER PWATS WILL
INCREASE IN THE WARM ADVECTION WITH THE NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. THE REGIONAL RADAR IMAGE SHOWED WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTHEAST US. THERE ARE
SOME CONCERNS OF STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON MAY
TAKE SOME OF THE MOISTURE AWAY FROM OUR AREA. OUR LOCAL RNK
WRFARW...HIRESW-ARW...NAM AND GFS WAIT UNTIL AFTER 00Z BEFORE
BRINGING IN HEAVIER CONVECTION THIS EVENING...WHILE HRRR AND ECMWF
ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH TIMING. THE HRRR AND HIRESW-ARW LIFTS THE
PRECIPITATION NORTHEAST WITH MOST OF RAIN PULLING OUT BY 06-08Z.
USED A BLEND OF HRRR AND NAM FOR POPS...TAPERING POPS BACK AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
WITH CLOUD COVER HINDERING INSTABILITIES. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL
JET INCREASING TO 50-60 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL RESULT IN
STRONG UPSLOPE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE STRONG WINDS THROUGH A
DEEP LAYER WILL PROVIDE LARGE HELICITY VALUES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. THE DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK (SWODY1) PLACED
A MARGINAL (5 PERCENT CHANCE OF WIND) ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
CWA. PLAYED LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO ADJMAV WITH READINGS FROM
THE UPPER 40S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN
THE PIEDMONT.

A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXPECTED MONDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MONDAY. INITIALLY CUT BACK POPS CLOSER
TO NAM FOR MONDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASED TO LIKELY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SPC CONTINUES OUR SLIGHT RISK FOR MONDAY ACROSS MOST OF
OUR CWA. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE DYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH HEALTHY
SHEAR AND DECENT CAPES AROUND 2K.  IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE BREEZY WITH
EFFICIENT DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER IN A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.
THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLEARING MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT SUNDAY...

TAIL END OF COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL BE EXITING
THE AREA JUST AFT 00Z. HOWEVER...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH...ALMOST
WINTERLIKE PATTERN CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AND DEEPEN ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WITH NUMEROUS SPOKES OF PVA/SHORT WAVES REMAINING
UPSTREAM. THIS LEAVES THE REGION...ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
A VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN. AT A MINIMUM...EXPECT VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS. TIMING OF EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL BE THE KEY TO THE
TIMES FOR THE BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS. FOR SEVERAL DAYS...THE
GFS HAS INSISTED ON A SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION WED WITH WIDESPREAD -SHRA AS A RESULT. THE OTHER MODELS
REMAIN LACKLUSTER WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT DO SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME
SMALL CHANCE WITHIN THIS TIME FRAME. GIVEN THE UNSETTLED NATURE OF
THE PATTERN WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME UPPER
DISTURBANCES...CANNOT REALLY DROP POPS AT ANY TIME. BEST FOCUS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF WV/FAR SW VA. IN
ADDITION...ENOUGH INSTABILITY SUGGESTED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT...TO
INTRODUCE ISOLD TSRA WITH THE WED DISTURBANCE AS WELL.

850MB TEMPS DROP TO NEAR 0C ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY WED...BUT THE BETTER COLD ADVECTION COMES IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD BEHIND THE WED DISTURBANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...

BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE AND DOMINATES THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...GRADUALLY SHIFTING FURTHER ESE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
THIS KEEPS THE REGION IN AN UNSTABLE/UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW WITH
NUMEROUS EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES. MODELS VARY CONSIDERABLY AS TO THE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE DISTURBANCES...BUT ENOUGH AGREEMENT
THAT POPS CANNOT BE DROPPED REALLY AT ANY TIME THE OVERALL TREND
IS TO PUSH THE BETTER MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES AND 850MB TEMPS DROP BELOW 0C IN THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES. THE ENTIRE PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH LOW CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WITH THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT THE
DRIEST. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...NO REAL CLEAR CONCERN AT THIS POINT FOR FROST/FREEZE
BECAUSE OF CYCLONIC FLOW AND CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 142 PM EDT SUNDAY...

KFCX WSR-88D SHOWED RAIN SPREADING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AND IFR WITH RAIN.

A STRONG SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WHICH WILL BRING WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30
KTS. WITH A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...AFTER SUNSET THESE STRONG WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH THE SURFACE. SHORTEN THE TIME WINDOW AND KEPT LLWS IN THE
KLWB AND KBCB TAFS AFTER 00Z/8PM.

CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AND WILL
REMAIN LOW OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER MONDAY
WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
FRONT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS IS LIKELY TO KEEP
PERIODS OF MVFR AND BRIEF IFR IN STORMS UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS THE
REGION MONDAY EVENING.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION...

VFR RETURNS LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS.

THEN THE NEXT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE
IN THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SUNDAY...

HAVE EXPANDED THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS OF
VIRGINIA.

A DEEP LAYER FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE OF SOUTHEAST WINDS...WILL BE INCREASING TO AROUND 50
KNOTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
JUST ABOVE 1.5 INCHES WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE
STRONGEST LIFT AND HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE FROM 18Z/2PM
THROUGH 06Z/2AM SO HAVE ADDED HEAVY RAIN TO THE FORECAST ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH
12Z/8AM MONDAY. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES WERE ROUGHLY 1.5 TO
2.5 INCHES FOR 3 HOURS. SO THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FLOODING ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS.

PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE FOR MAINSTEM RIVERS SUGGESTS A SMALL
POSSIBILITY FOR MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE DAN RIVER AND NEW RIVER.
HOWEVER...THE IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ018>020-022>024-
     033>035.
     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ009-012>017-032.
NC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ001>003-018>020.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS/KK
HYDROLOGY...KK




000
FXUS61 KRNK 192033 CCA
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
412 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST
AND COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON
MONDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 333 PM EDT SUNDAY...

FLOOD WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO TONIGHT.

A WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH THIS EVENING AND CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE AND HIGHER PWATS WILL
INCREASE IN THE WARM ADVECTION WITH THE NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. THE REGIONAL RADAR IMAGE SHOWED WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTHEAST US. THERE ARE
SOME CONCERNS OF STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON MAY
TAKE SOME OF THE MOISTURE AWAY FROM OUR AREA. OUR LOCAL RNK
WRFARW...HIRESW-ARW...NAM AND GFS WAIT UNTIL AFTER 00Z BEFORE
BRINGING IN HEAVIER CONVECTION THIS EVENING...WHILE HRRR AND ECMWF
ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH TIMING. THE HRRR AND HIRESW-ARW LIFTS THE
PRECIPITATION NORTHEAST WITH MOST OF RAIN PULLING OUT BY 06-08Z.
USED A BLEND OF HRRR AND NAM FOR POPS...TAPERING POPS BACK AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
WITH CLOUD COVER HINDERING INSTABILITIES. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL
JET INCREASING TO 50-60 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL RESULT IN
STRONG UPSLOPE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE STRONG WINDS THROUGH A
DEEP LAYER WILL PROVIDE LARGE HELICITY VALUES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. THE DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK (SWODY1) PLACED
A MARGINAL (5 PERCENT CHANCE OF WIND) ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
CWA. PLAYED LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO ADJMAV WITH READINGS FROM
THE UPPER 40S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN
THE PIEDMONT.

A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXPECTED MONDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MONDAY. INITIALLY CUT BACK POPS CLOSER
TO NAM FOR MONDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASED TO LIKELY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SPC CONTINUES OUR SLIGHT RISK FOR MONDAY ACROSS MOST OF
OUR CWA. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE DYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH HEALTHY
SHEAR AND DECENT CAPES AROUND 2K.  IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE BREEZY WITH
EFFICIENT DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER IN A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.
THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLEARING MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT SUNDAY...

TAIL END OF COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL BE EXITING
THE AREA JUST AFT 00Z. HOWEVER...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH...ALMOST
WINTERLIKE PATTERN CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AND DEEPEN ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WITH NUMEROUS SPOKES OF PVA/SHORT WAVES REMAINING
UPSTREAM. THIS LEAVES THE REGION...ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
A VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN. AT A MINIMUM...EXPECT VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS. TIMING OF EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL BE THE KEY TO THE
TIMES FOR THE BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS. FOR SEVERAL DAYS...THE
GFS HAS INSISTED ON A SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION WED WITH WIDESPREAD -SHRA AS A RESULT. THE OTHER MODELS
REMAIN LACKLUSTER WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT DO SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME
SMALL CHANCE WITHIN THIS TIME FRAME. GIVEN THE UNSETTLED NATURE OF
THE PATTERN WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME UPPER
DISTURBANCES...CANNOT REALLY DROP POPS AT ANY TIME. BEST FOCUS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF WV/FAR SW VA. IN
ADDITION...ENOUGH INSTABILITY SUGGESTED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT...TO
INTRODUCE ISOLD TSRA WITH THE WED DISTURBANCE AS WELL.

850MB TEMPS DROP TO NEAR 0C ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY WED...BUT THE BETTER COLD ADVECTION COMES IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD BEHIND THE WED DISTURBANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...

BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE AND DOMINATES THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...GRADUALLY SHIFTING FURTHER ESE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
THIS KEEPS THE REGION IN AN UNSTABLE/UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW WITH
NUMEROUS EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES. MODELS VARY CONSIDERABLY AS TO THE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE DISTURBANCES...BUT ENOUGH AGREEMENT
THAT POPS CANNOT BE DROPPED REALLY AT ANY TIME THE OVERALL TREND
IS TO PUSH THE BETTER MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES AND 850MB TEMPS DROP BELOW 0C IN THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES. THE ENTIRE PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH LOW CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WITH THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT THE
DRIEST. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...NO REAL CLEAR CONCERN AT THIS POINT FOR FROST/FREEZE
BECAUSE OF CYCLONIC FLOW AND CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 142 PM EDT SUNDAY...

KFCX WSR-88D SHOWED RAIN SPREADING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AND IFR WITH RAIN.

A STRONG SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WHICH WILL BRING WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30
KTS. WITH A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...AFTER SUNSET THESE STRONG WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH THE SURFACE. SHORTEN THE TIME WINDOW AND KEPT LLWS IN THE
KLWB AND KBCB TAFS AFTER 00Z/8PM.

CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AND WILL
REMAIN LOW OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER MONDAY
WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
FRONT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS IS LIKELY TO KEEP
PERIODS OF MVFR AND BRIEF IFR IN STORMS UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS THE
REGION MONDAY EVENING.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION...

VFR RETURNS LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS.

THEN THE NEXT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE
IN THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SUNDAY...

HAVE EXPANDED THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS OF
VIRGINIA.

A DEEP LAYER FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE OF SOUTHEAST WINDS...WILL BE INCREASING TO AROUND 50
KNOTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
JUST ABOVE 1.5 INCHES WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE
STRONGEST LIFT AND HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE FROM 18Z/2PM
THROUGH 06Z/2AM SO HAVE ADDED HEAVY RAIN TO THE FORECAST ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH
12Z/8AM MONDAY. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES WERE ROUGHLY 1.5 TO
2.5 INCHES FOR 3 HOURS. SO THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FLOODING ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS.

PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE FOR MAINSTEM RIVERS SUGGESTS A SMALL
POSSIBILITY FOR MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE DAN RIVER AND NEW RIVER.
HOWEVER...THE IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ018>020-022>024-
     033>035.
     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ009-012>017-032.
NC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ001>003-018>020.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS/KK
HYDROLOGY...KK




000
FXUS61 KRNK 192033 CCA
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
412 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST
AND COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON
MONDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 333 PM EDT SUNDAY...

FLOOD WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO TONIGHT.

A WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH THIS EVENING AND CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE AND HIGHER PWATS WILL
INCREASE IN THE WARM ADVECTION WITH THE NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. THE REGIONAL RADAR IMAGE SHOWED WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTHEAST US. THERE ARE
SOME CONCERNS OF STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON MAY
TAKE SOME OF THE MOISTURE AWAY FROM OUR AREA. OUR LOCAL RNK
WRFARW...HIRESW-ARW...NAM AND GFS WAIT UNTIL AFTER 00Z BEFORE
BRINGING IN HEAVIER CONVECTION THIS EVENING...WHILE HRRR AND ECMWF
ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH TIMING. THE HRRR AND HIRESW-ARW LIFTS THE
PRECIPITATION NORTHEAST WITH MOST OF RAIN PULLING OUT BY 06-08Z.
USED A BLEND OF HRRR AND NAM FOR POPS...TAPERING POPS BACK AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
WITH CLOUD COVER HINDERING INSTABILITIES. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL
JET INCREASING TO 50-60 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL RESULT IN
STRONG UPSLOPE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE STRONG WINDS THROUGH A
DEEP LAYER WILL PROVIDE LARGE HELICITY VALUES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. THE DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK (SWODY1) PLACED
A MARGINAL (5 PERCENT CHANCE OF WIND) ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
CWA. PLAYED LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO ADJMAV WITH READINGS FROM
THE UPPER 40S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN
THE PIEDMONT.

A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXPECTED MONDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MONDAY. INITIALLY CUT BACK POPS CLOSER
TO NAM FOR MONDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASED TO LIKELY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SPC CONTINUES OUR SLIGHT RISK FOR MONDAY ACROSS MOST OF
OUR CWA. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE DYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH HEALTHY
SHEAR AND DECENT CAPES AROUND 2K.  IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE BREEZY WITH
EFFICIENT DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER IN A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.
THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLEARING MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT SUNDAY...

TAIL END OF COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL BE EXITING
THE AREA JUST AFT 00Z. HOWEVER...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH...ALMOST
WINTERLIKE PATTERN CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AND DEEPEN ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WITH NUMEROUS SPOKES OF PVA/SHORT WAVES REMAINING
UPSTREAM. THIS LEAVES THE REGION...ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
A VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN. AT A MINIMUM...EXPECT VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS. TIMING OF EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL BE THE KEY TO THE
TIMES FOR THE BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS. FOR SEVERAL DAYS...THE
GFS HAS INSISTED ON A SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION WED WITH WIDESPREAD -SHRA AS A RESULT. THE OTHER MODELS
REMAIN LACKLUSTER WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT DO SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME
SMALL CHANCE WITHIN THIS TIME FRAME. GIVEN THE UNSETTLED NATURE OF
THE PATTERN WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME UPPER
DISTURBANCES...CANNOT REALLY DROP POPS AT ANY TIME. BEST FOCUS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF WV/FAR SW VA. IN
ADDITION...ENOUGH INSTABILITY SUGGESTED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT...TO
INTRODUCE ISOLD TSRA WITH THE WED DISTURBANCE AS WELL.

850MB TEMPS DROP TO NEAR 0C ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY WED...BUT THE BETTER COLD ADVECTION COMES IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD BEHIND THE WED DISTURBANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...

BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE AND DOMINATES THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...GRADUALLY SHIFTING FURTHER ESE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
THIS KEEPS THE REGION IN AN UNSTABLE/UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW WITH
NUMEROUS EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES. MODELS VARY CONSIDERABLY AS TO THE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE DISTURBANCES...BUT ENOUGH AGREEMENT
THAT POPS CANNOT BE DROPPED REALLY AT ANY TIME THE OVERALL TREND
IS TO PUSH THE BETTER MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES AND 850MB TEMPS DROP BELOW 0C IN THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES. THE ENTIRE PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH LOW CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WITH THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT THE
DRIEST. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...NO REAL CLEAR CONCERN AT THIS POINT FOR FROST/FREEZE
BECAUSE OF CYCLONIC FLOW AND CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 142 PM EDT SUNDAY...

KFCX WSR-88D SHOWED RAIN SPREADING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AND IFR WITH RAIN.

A STRONG SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WHICH WILL BRING WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30
KTS. WITH A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...AFTER SUNSET THESE STRONG WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH THE SURFACE. SHORTEN THE TIME WINDOW AND KEPT LLWS IN THE
KLWB AND KBCB TAFS AFTER 00Z/8PM.

CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AND WILL
REMAIN LOW OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER MONDAY
WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
FRONT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS IS LIKELY TO KEEP
PERIODS OF MVFR AND BRIEF IFR IN STORMS UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS THE
REGION MONDAY EVENING.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION...

VFR RETURNS LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS.

THEN THE NEXT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE
IN THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SUNDAY...

HAVE EXPANDED THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS OF
VIRGINIA.

A DEEP LAYER FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE OF SOUTHEAST WINDS...WILL BE INCREASING TO AROUND 50
KNOTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
JUST ABOVE 1.5 INCHES WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE
STRONGEST LIFT AND HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE FROM 18Z/2PM
THROUGH 06Z/2AM SO HAVE ADDED HEAVY RAIN TO THE FORECAST ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH
12Z/8AM MONDAY. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES WERE ROUGHLY 1.5 TO
2.5 INCHES FOR 3 HOURS. SO THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FLOODING ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS.

PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE FOR MAINSTEM RIVERS SUGGESTS A SMALL
POSSIBILITY FOR MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE DAN RIVER AND NEW RIVER.
HOWEVER...THE IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ018>020-022>024-
     033>035.
     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ009-012>017-032.
NC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ001>003-018>020.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS/KK
HYDROLOGY...KK




000
FXUS61 KRNK 192033 CCA
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
412 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST
AND COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON
MONDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 333 PM EDT SUNDAY...

FLOOD WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO TONIGHT.

A WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH THIS EVENING AND CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE AND HIGHER PWATS WILL
INCREASE IN THE WARM ADVECTION WITH THE NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. THE REGIONAL RADAR IMAGE SHOWED WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTHEAST US. THERE ARE
SOME CONCERNS OF STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON MAY
TAKE SOME OF THE MOISTURE AWAY FROM OUR AREA. OUR LOCAL RNK
WRFARW...HIRESW-ARW...NAM AND GFS WAIT UNTIL AFTER 00Z BEFORE
BRINGING IN HEAVIER CONVECTION THIS EVENING...WHILE HRRR AND ECMWF
ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH TIMING. THE HRRR AND HIRESW-ARW LIFTS THE
PRECIPITATION NORTHEAST WITH MOST OF RAIN PULLING OUT BY 06-08Z.
USED A BLEND OF HRRR AND NAM FOR POPS...TAPERING POPS BACK AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
WITH CLOUD COVER HINDERING INSTABILITIES. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL
JET INCREASING TO 50-60 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL RESULT IN
STRONG UPSLOPE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE STRONG WINDS THROUGH A
DEEP LAYER WILL PROVIDE LARGE HELICITY VALUES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. THE DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK (SWODY1) PLACED
A MARGINAL (5 PERCENT CHANCE OF WIND) ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
CWA. PLAYED LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO ADJMAV WITH READINGS FROM
THE UPPER 40S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN
THE PIEDMONT.

A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXPECTED MONDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MONDAY. INITIALLY CUT BACK POPS CLOSER
TO NAM FOR MONDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASED TO LIKELY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SPC CONTINUES OUR SLIGHT RISK FOR MONDAY ACROSS MOST OF
OUR CWA. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE DYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH HEALTHY
SHEAR AND DECENT CAPES AROUND 2K.  IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE BREEZY WITH
EFFICIENT DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER IN A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.
THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLEARING MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT SUNDAY...

TAIL END OF COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL BE EXITING
THE AREA JUST AFT 00Z. HOWEVER...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH...ALMOST
WINTERLIKE PATTERN CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AND DEEPEN ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WITH NUMEROUS SPOKES OF PVA/SHORT WAVES REMAINING
UPSTREAM. THIS LEAVES THE REGION...ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
A VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN. AT A MINIMUM...EXPECT VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS. TIMING OF EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL BE THE KEY TO THE
TIMES FOR THE BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS. FOR SEVERAL DAYS...THE
GFS HAS INSISTED ON A SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION WED WITH WIDESPREAD -SHRA AS A RESULT. THE OTHER MODELS
REMAIN LACKLUSTER WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT DO SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME
SMALL CHANCE WITHIN THIS TIME FRAME. GIVEN THE UNSETTLED NATURE OF
THE PATTERN WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME UPPER
DISTURBANCES...CANNOT REALLY DROP POPS AT ANY TIME. BEST FOCUS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF WV/FAR SW VA. IN
ADDITION...ENOUGH INSTABILITY SUGGESTED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT...TO
INTRODUCE ISOLD TSRA WITH THE WED DISTURBANCE AS WELL.

850MB TEMPS DROP TO NEAR 0C ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY WED...BUT THE BETTER COLD ADVECTION COMES IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD BEHIND THE WED DISTURBANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...

BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE AND DOMINATES THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...GRADUALLY SHIFTING FURTHER ESE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
THIS KEEPS THE REGION IN AN UNSTABLE/UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW WITH
NUMEROUS EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES. MODELS VARY CONSIDERABLY AS TO THE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE DISTURBANCES...BUT ENOUGH AGREEMENT
THAT POPS CANNOT BE DROPPED REALLY AT ANY TIME THE OVERALL TREND
IS TO PUSH THE BETTER MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES AND 850MB TEMPS DROP BELOW 0C IN THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES. THE ENTIRE PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH LOW CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WITH THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT THE
DRIEST. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...NO REAL CLEAR CONCERN AT THIS POINT FOR FROST/FREEZE
BECAUSE OF CYCLONIC FLOW AND CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 142 PM EDT SUNDAY...

KFCX WSR-88D SHOWED RAIN SPREADING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AND IFR WITH RAIN.

A STRONG SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WHICH WILL BRING WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30
KTS. WITH A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...AFTER SUNSET THESE STRONG WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH THE SURFACE. SHORTEN THE TIME WINDOW AND KEPT LLWS IN THE
KLWB AND KBCB TAFS AFTER 00Z/8PM.

CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AND WILL
REMAIN LOW OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER MONDAY
WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
FRONT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS IS LIKELY TO KEEP
PERIODS OF MVFR AND BRIEF IFR IN STORMS UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS THE
REGION MONDAY EVENING.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION...

VFR RETURNS LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS.

THEN THE NEXT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE
IN THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SUNDAY...

HAVE EXPANDED THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS OF
VIRGINIA.

A DEEP LAYER FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE OF SOUTHEAST WINDS...WILL BE INCREASING TO AROUND 50
KNOTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
JUST ABOVE 1.5 INCHES WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE
STRONGEST LIFT AND HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE FROM 18Z/2PM
THROUGH 06Z/2AM SO HAVE ADDED HEAVY RAIN TO THE FORECAST ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH
12Z/8AM MONDAY. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES WERE ROUGHLY 1.5 TO
2.5 INCHES FOR 3 HOURS. SO THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FLOODING ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS.

PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE FOR MAINSTEM RIVERS SUGGESTS A SMALL
POSSIBILITY FOR MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE DAN RIVER AND NEW RIVER.
HOWEVER...THE IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ018>020-022>024-
     033>035.
     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ009-012>017-032.
NC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ001>003-018>020.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS/KK
HYDROLOGY...KK




000
FXUS61 KRNK 192012
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
412 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST
AND COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON
MONDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 333 PM EDT SUNDAY...

FLOOD WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO TONIGHT.

A WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH THIS EVENING AND CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE AND HIGHER PWATS WILL
INCREASE IN THE WARM ADVECTION WITH THE NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. THE REGIONAL RADAR IMAGE SHOWED WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTHEAST US. THERE ARE
SOME CONCERNS OF STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON MAY
TAKE SOME OF THE MOISTURE AWAY FROM OUR AREA. OUR LOCAL RNK
WRFARW...HIRESW-ARW...NAM AND GFS WAIT UNTIL AFTER 00Z BEFORE
BRINGING IN HEAVIER CONVECTION THIS EVENING...WHILE HRRR AND ECMWF
ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH TIMING. THE HRRR AND HIRESW-ARW LIFTS THE
PRECIPITATION NORTHEAST WITH MOST OF RAIN PULLING OUT BY 06-08Z.
USED A BLEND OF HRRR AND NAM FOR POPS...TAPERING POPS BACK AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
WITH CLOUD COVER HINDERING INSTABILITIES. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL
JET INCREASING TO 50-60 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL RESULT IN
STRONG UPSLOPE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE STRONG WINDS THROUGH A
DEEP LAYER WILL PROVIDE LARGE HELICITY VALUES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. THE DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK (SWODY1) PLACED
A MARGINAL (5 PERCENT CHANCE OF WIND) ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
CWA. PLAYED LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO ADJMAV WITH READINGS FROM
THE UPPER 40S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN
THE PIEDMONT.

A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXPECTED MONDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MONDAY. INITIALLY CUT BACK POPS CLOSER
TO NAM FOR MONDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASED TO LIKELY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SPC CONTINUES OUR SLIGHT RISK FOR MONDAY ACROSS MOST OF
OUR CWA. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE DYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH HEALTHY
SHEAR AND DECENT CAPES AROUND 2K.  IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE BREEZY WITH
EFFICIENT DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER IN A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.
THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLEARING MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT SUNDAY...

TAIL END OF COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL BE EXITING
THE AREA JUST AFT 00Z. HOWEVER...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH...ALMOST
WINTERLIKE PATTERN CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AND DEEPEN ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WITH NUMEROUS SPOKES OF PVA/SHORT WAVES REMAINING
UPSTREAM. THIS LEAVES THE REGION...ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
A VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN. AT A MINIMUM...EXPECT VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS. TIMING OF EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL BE THE KEY TO THE
TIMES FOR THE BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS. FOR SEVERAL DAYS...THE
GFS HAS INSISTED ON A SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION WED WITH WIDESPREAD -SHRA AS A RESULT. THE OTHER MODELS
REMAIN LACKLUSTER WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT DO SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME
SMALL CHANCE WITHIN THIS TIME FRAME. GIVEN THE UNSETTLED NATURE OF
THE PATTERN WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME UPPER
DISTURBANCES...CANNOT REALLY DROP POPS AT ANY TIME. BEST FOCUS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF WV/FAR SW VA. IN
ADDITION...ENOUGH INSTABILITY SUGGESTED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT...TO
INTRODUCE ISOLD TSRA WITH THE WED DISTURBANCE AS WELL.

850MB TEMPS DROP TO NEAR 0C ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY WED...BUT THE BETTER COLD ADVECTION COMES IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD BEHIND THE WED DISTURBANCE.A&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...

BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE AND DOMINATES THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...GRADUALLY SHIFTING FURTHER ESE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
THIS KEEPS THE REGION IN AN UNSTABLE/UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW WITH
NUMEROUS EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES. MODELS VARY CONSIDERABLY AS TO THE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE DISTURBANCES...BUT ENOUGH AGREEMENT
THAT POPS CANNOT BE DROPPED REALLY AT ANY TIME THE OVERALL TREND
IS TO PUSH THE BETTER MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES AND 850MB TEMPS DROP BELOW 0C IN THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES. THE ENTIRE PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH LOW CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WITH THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT THE
DRIEST. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...NO REAL CLEAR CONCERN AT THIS POINT FOR FROST/FREEZE
BECAUSE OF CYCLONIC FLOW AND CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 142 PM EDT SUNDAY...

KFCX WSR-88D SHOWED RAIN SPREADING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AND IFR WITH RAIN.

A STRONG SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WHICH WILL BRING WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30
KTS. WITH A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...AFTER SUNSET THESE STRONG WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH THE SURFACE. SHORTEN THE TIME WINDOW AND KEPT LLWS IN THE
KLWB AND KBCB TAFS AFTER 00Z/8PM.

CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AND WILL
REMAIN LOW OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER MONDAY
WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
FRONT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS IS LIKELY TO KEEP
PERIODS OF MVFR AND BRIEF IFR IN STORMS UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS THE
REGION MONDAY EVENING.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION...

VFR RETURNS LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS.

THEN THE NEXT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE
IN THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SUNDAY...

HAVE EXPANDED THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS OF
VIRGINIA.

A DEEP LAYER FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE OF SOUTHEAST WINDS...WILL BE INCREASING TO AROUND 50
KNOTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
JUST ABOVE 1.5 INCHES WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE
STRONGEST LIFT AND HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE FROM 18Z/2PM
THROUGH 06Z/2AM SO HAVE ADDED HEAVY RAIN TO THE FORECAST ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH
12Z/8AM MONDAY. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES WERE ROUGHLY 1.5 TO
2.5 INCHES FOR 3 HOURS. SO THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FLOODING ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS.

PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE FOR MAINSTEM RIVERS SUGGESTS A SMALL
POSSIBILITY FOR MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE DAN RIVER AND NEW RIVER.
HOWEVER...THE IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ018>020-022>024-
     033>035.
     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ009-012>017-032.
NC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ001>003-018>020.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS/KK
HYDROLOGY...KK



000
FXUS61 KRNK 192012
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
412 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST
AND COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON
MONDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 333 PM EDT SUNDAY...

FLOOD WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO TONIGHT.

A WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH THIS EVENING AND CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE AND HIGHER PWATS WILL
INCREASE IN THE WARM ADVECTION WITH THE NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. THE REGIONAL RADAR IMAGE SHOWED WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTHEAST US. THERE ARE
SOME CONCERNS OF STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON MAY
TAKE SOME OF THE MOISTURE AWAY FROM OUR AREA. OUR LOCAL RNK
WRFARW...HIRESW-ARW...NAM AND GFS WAIT UNTIL AFTER 00Z BEFORE
BRINGING IN HEAVIER CONVECTION THIS EVENING...WHILE HRRR AND ECMWF
ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH TIMING. THE HRRR AND HIRESW-ARW LIFTS THE
PRECIPITATION NORTHEAST WITH MOST OF RAIN PULLING OUT BY 06-08Z.
USED A BLEND OF HRRR AND NAM FOR POPS...TAPERING POPS BACK AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
WITH CLOUD COVER HINDERING INSTABILITIES. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL
JET INCREASING TO 50-60 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL RESULT IN
STRONG UPSLOPE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE STRONG WINDS THROUGH A
DEEP LAYER WILL PROVIDE LARGE HELICITY VALUES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. THE DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK (SWODY1) PLACED
A MARGINAL (5 PERCENT CHANCE OF WIND) ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
CWA. PLAYED LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO ADJMAV WITH READINGS FROM
THE UPPER 40S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN
THE PIEDMONT.

A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXPECTED MONDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MONDAY. INITIALLY CUT BACK POPS CLOSER
TO NAM FOR MONDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASED TO LIKELY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SPC CONTINUES OUR SLIGHT RISK FOR MONDAY ACROSS MOST OF
OUR CWA. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE DYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH HEALTHY
SHEAR AND DECENT CAPES AROUND 2K.  IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE BREEZY WITH
EFFICIENT DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER IN A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.
THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLEARING MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT SUNDAY...

TAIL END OF COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL BE EXITING
THE AREA JUST AFT 00Z. HOWEVER...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH...ALMOST
WINTERLIKE PATTERN CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AND DEEPEN ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WITH NUMEROUS SPOKES OF PVA/SHORT WAVES REMAINING
UPSTREAM. THIS LEAVES THE REGION...ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
A VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN. AT A MINIMUM...EXPECT VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS. TIMING OF EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL BE THE KEY TO THE
TIMES FOR THE BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS. FOR SEVERAL DAYS...THE
GFS HAS INSISTED ON A SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION WED WITH WIDESPREAD -SHRA AS A RESULT. THE OTHER MODELS
REMAIN LACKLUSTER WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT DO SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME
SMALL CHANCE WITHIN THIS TIME FRAME. GIVEN THE UNSETTLED NATURE OF
THE PATTERN WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME UPPER
DISTURBANCES...CANNOT REALLY DROP POPS AT ANY TIME. BEST FOCUS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF WV/FAR SW VA. IN
ADDITION...ENOUGH INSTABILITY SUGGESTED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT...TO
INTRODUCE ISOLD TSRA WITH THE WED DISTURBANCE AS WELL.

850MB TEMPS DROP TO NEAR 0C ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY WED...BUT THE BETTER COLD ADVECTION COMES IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD BEHIND THE WED DISTURBANCE.A&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...

BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE AND DOMINATES THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...GRADUALLY SHIFTING FURTHER ESE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
THIS KEEPS THE REGION IN AN UNSTABLE/UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW WITH
NUMEROUS EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES. MODELS VARY CONSIDERABLY AS TO THE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE DISTURBANCES...BUT ENOUGH AGREEMENT
THAT POPS CANNOT BE DROPPED REALLY AT ANY TIME THE OVERALL TREND
IS TO PUSH THE BETTER MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES AND 850MB TEMPS DROP BELOW 0C IN THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES. THE ENTIRE PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH LOW CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WITH THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT THE
DRIEST. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...NO REAL CLEAR CONCERN AT THIS POINT FOR FROST/FREEZE
BECAUSE OF CYCLONIC FLOW AND CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 142 PM EDT SUNDAY...

KFCX WSR-88D SHOWED RAIN SPREADING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AND IFR WITH RAIN.

A STRONG SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WHICH WILL BRING WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30
KTS. WITH A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...AFTER SUNSET THESE STRONG WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH THE SURFACE. SHORTEN THE TIME WINDOW AND KEPT LLWS IN THE
KLWB AND KBCB TAFS AFTER 00Z/8PM.

CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AND WILL
REMAIN LOW OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER MONDAY
WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
FRONT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS IS LIKELY TO KEEP
PERIODS OF MVFR AND BRIEF IFR IN STORMS UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS THE
REGION MONDAY EVENING.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION...

VFR RETURNS LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS.

THEN THE NEXT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE
IN THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SUNDAY...

HAVE EXPANDED THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS OF
VIRGINIA.

A DEEP LAYER FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE OF SOUTHEAST WINDS...WILL BE INCREASING TO AROUND 50
KNOTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
JUST ABOVE 1.5 INCHES WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE
STRONGEST LIFT AND HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE FROM 18Z/2PM
THROUGH 06Z/2AM SO HAVE ADDED HEAVY RAIN TO THE FORECAST ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH
12Z/8AM MONDAY. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES WERE ROUGHLY 1.5 TO
2.5 INCHES FOR 3 HOURS. SO THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FLOODING ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS.

PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE FOR MAINSTEM RIVERS SUGGESTS A SMALL
POSSIBILITY FOR MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE DAN RIVER AND NEW RIVER.
HOWEVER...THE IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ018>020-022>024-
     033>035.
     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ009-012>017-032.
NC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ001>003-018>020.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS/KK
HYDROLOGY...KK



000
FXUS61 KRNK 192012
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
412 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST
AND COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON
MONDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 333 PM EDT SUNDAY...

FLOOD WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO TONIGHT.

A WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH THIS EVENING AND CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE AND HIGHER PWATS WILL
INCREASE IN THE WARM ADVECTION WITH THE NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. THE REGIONAL RADAR IMAGE SHOWED WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTHEAST US. THERE ARE
SOME CONCERNS OF STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON MAY
TAKE SOME OF THE MOISTURE AWAY FROM OUR AREA. OUR LOCAL RNK
WRFARW...HIRESW-ARW...NAM AND GFS WAIT UNTIL AFTER 00Z BEFORE
BRINGING IN HEAVIER CONVECTION THIS EVENING...WHILE HRRR AND ECMWF
ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH TIMING. THE HRRR AND HIRESW-ARW LIFTS THE
PRECIPITATION NORTHEAST WITH MOST OF RAIN PULLING OUT BY 06-08Z.
USED A BLEND OF HRRR AND NAM FOR POPS...TAPERING POPS BACK AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
WITH CLOUD COVER HINDERING INSTABILITIES. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL
JET INCREASING TO 50-60 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL RESULT IN
STRONG UPSLOPE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE STRONG WINDS THROUGH A
DEEP LAYER WILL PROVIDE LARGE HELICITY VALUES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. THE DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK (SWODY1) PLACED
A MARGINAL (5 PERCENT CHANCE OF WIND) ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
CWA. PLAYED LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO ADJMAV WITH READINGS FROM
THE UPPER 40S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN
THE PIEDMONT.

A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXPECTED MONDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MONDAY. INITIALLY CUT BACK POPS CLOSER
TO NAM FOR MONDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASED TO LIKELY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SPC CONTINUES OUR SLIGHT RISK FOR MONDAY ACROSS MOST OF
OUR CWA. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE DYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH HEALTHY
SHEAR AND DECENT CAPES AROUND 2K.  IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE BREEZY WITH
EFFICIENT DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER IN A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.
THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLEARING MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT SUNDAY...

TAIL END OF COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL BE EXITING
THE AREA JUST AFT 00Z. HOWEVER...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH...ALMOST
WINTERLIKE PATTERN CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AND DEEPEN ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WITH NUMEROUS SPOKES OF PVA/SHORT WAVES REMAINING
UPSTREAM. THIS LEAVES THE REGION...ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
A VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN. AT A MINIMUM...EXPECT VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS. TIMING OF EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL BE THE KEY TO THE
TIMES FOR THE BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS. FOR SEVERAL DAYS...THE
GFS HAS INSISTED ON A SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION WED WITH WIDESPREAD -SHRA AS A RESULT. THE OTHER MODELS
REMAIN LACKLUSTER WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT DO SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME
SMALL CHANCE WITHIN THIS TIME FRAME. GIVEN THE UNSETTLED NATURE OF
THE PATTERN WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME UPPER
DISTURBANCES...CANNOT REALLY DROP POPS AT ANY TIME. BEST FOCUS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF WV/FAR SW VA. IN
ADDITION...ENOUGH INSTABILITY SUGGESTED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT...TO
INTRODUCE ISOLD TSRA WITH THE WED DISTURBANCE AS WELL.

850MB TEMPS DROP TO NEAR 0C ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY WED...BUT THE BETTER COLD ADVECTION COMES IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD BEHIND THE WED DISTURBANCE.A&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...

BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE AND DOMINATES THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...GRADUALLY SHIFTING FURTHER ESE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
THIS KEEPS THE REGION IN AN UNSTABLE/UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW WITH
NUMEROUS EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES. MODELS VARY CONSIDERABLY AS TO THE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE DISTURBANCES...BUT ENOUGH AGREEMENT
THAT POPS CANNOT BE DROPPED REALLY AT ANY TIME THE OVERALL TREND
IS TO PUSH THE BETTER MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES AND 850MB TEMPS DROP BELOW 0C IN THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES. THE ENTIRE PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH LOW CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WITH THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT THE
DRIEST. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...NO REAL CLEAR CONCERN AT THIS POINT FOR FROST/FREEZE
BECAUSE OF CYCLONIC FLOW AND CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 142 PM EDT SUNDAY...

KFCX WSR-88D SHOWED RAIN SPREADING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AND IFR WITH RAIN.

A STRONG SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WHICH WILL BRING WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30
KTS. WITH A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...AFTER SUNSET THESE STRONG WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH THE SURFACE. SHORTEN THE TIME WINDOW AND KEPT LLWS IN THE
KLWB AND KBCB TAFS AFTER 00Z/8PM.

CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AND WILL
REMAIN LOW OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER MONDAY
WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
FRONT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS IS LIKELY TO KEEP
PERIODS OF MVFR AND BRIEF IFR IN STORMS UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS THE
REGION MONDAY EVENING.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION...

VFR RETURNS LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS.

THEN THE NEXT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE
IN THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SUNDAY...

HAVE EXPANDED THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS OF
VIRGINIA.

A DEEP LAYER FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE OF SOUTHEAST WINDS...WILL BE INCREASING TO AROUND 50
KNOTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
JUST ABOVE 1.5 INCHES WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE
STRONGEST LIFT AND HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE FROM 18Z/2PM
THROUGH 06Z/2AM SO HAVE ADDED HEAVY RAIN TO THE FORECAST ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH
12Z/8AM MONDAY. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES WERE ROUGHLY 1.5 TO
2.5 INCHES FOR 3 HOURS. SO THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FLOODING ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS.

PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE FOR MAINSTEM RIVERS SUGGESTS A SMALL
POSSIBILITY FOR MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE DAN RIVER AND NEW RIVER.
HOWEVER...THE IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ018>020-022>024-
     033>035.
     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ009-012>017-032.
NC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ001>003-018>020.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS/KK
HYDROLOGY...KK



000
FXUS61 KRNK 192012
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
412 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST
AND COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON
MONDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 333 PM EDT SUNDAY...

FLOOD WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO TONIGHT.

A WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH THIS EVENING AND CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE AND HIGHER PWATS WILL
INCREASE IN THE WARM ADVECTION WITH THE NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. THE REGIONAL RADAR IMAGE SHOWED WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTHEAST US. THERE ARE
SOME CONCERNS OF STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON MAY
TAKE SOME OF THE MOISTURE AWAY FROM OUR AREA. OUR LOCAL RNK
WRFARW...HIRESW-ARW...NAM AND GFS WAIT UNTIL AFTER 00Z BEFORE
BRINGING IN HEAVIER CONVECTION THIS EVENING...WHILE HRRR AND ECMWF
ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH TIMING. THE HRRR AND HIRESW-ARW LIFTS THE
PRECIPITATION NORTHEAST WITH MOST OF RAIN PULLING OUT BY 06-08Z.
USED A BLEND OF HRRR AND NAM FOR POPS...TAPERING POPS BACK AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
WITH CLOUD COVER HINDERING INSTABILITIES. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL
JET INCREASING TO 50-60 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL RESULT IN
STRONG UPSLOPE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE STRONG WINDS THROUGH A
DEEP LAYER WILL PROVIDE LARGE HELICITY VALUES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. THE DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK (SWODY1) PLACED
A MARGINAL (5 PERCENT CHANCE OF WIND) ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
CWA. PLAYED LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO ADJMAV WITH READINGS FROM
THE UPPER 40S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN
THE PIEDMONT.

A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXPECTED MONDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MONDAY. INITIALLY CUT BACK POPS CLOSER
TO NAM FOR MONDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASED TO LIKELY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SPC CONTINUES OUR SLIGHT RISK FOR MONDAY ACROSS MOST OF
OUR CWA. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE DYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH HEALTHY
SHEAR AND DECENT CAPES AROUND 2K.  IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE BREEZY WITH
EFFICIENT DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER IN A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.
THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLEARING MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT SUNDAY...

TAIL END OF COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL BE EXITING
THE AREA JUST AFT 00Z. HOWEVER...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH...ALMOST
WINTERLIKE PATTERN CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AND DEEPEN ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WITH NUMEROUS SPOKES OF PVA/SHORT WAVES REMAINING
UPSTREAM. THIS LEAVES THE REGION...ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
A VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN. AT A MINIMUM...EXPECT VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS. TIMING OF EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL BE THE KEY TO THE
TIMES FOR THE BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS. FOR SEVERAL DAYS...THE
GFS HAS INSISTED ON A SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION WED WITH WIDESPREAD -SHRA AS A RESULT. THE OTHER MODELS
REMAIN LACKLUSTER WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT DO SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME
SMALL CHANCE WITHIN THIS TIME FRAME. GIVEN THE UNSETTLED NATURE OF
THE PATTERN WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME UPPER
DISTURBANCES...CANNOT REALLY DROP POPS AT ANY TIME. BEST FOCUS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF WV/FAR SW VA. IN
ADDITION...ENOUGH INSTABILITY SUGGESTED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT...TO
INTRODUCE ISOLD TSRA WITH THE WED DISTURBANCE AS WELL.

850MB TEMPS DROP TO NEAR 0C ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY WED...BUT THE BETTER COLD ADVECTION COMES IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD BEHIND THE WED DISTURBANCE.A&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...

BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE AND DOMINATES THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...GRADUALLY SHIFTING FURTHER ESE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
THIS KEEPS THE REGION IN AN UNSTABLE/UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW WITH
NUMEROUS EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES. MODELS VARY CONSIDERABLY AS TO THE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE DISTURBANCES...BUT ENOUGH AGREEMENT
THAT POPS CANNOT BE DROPPED REALLY AT ANY TIME THE OVERALL TREND
IS TO PUSH THE BETTER MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES AND 850MB TEMPS DROP BELOW 0C IN THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES. THE ENTIRE PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH LOW CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WITH THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT THE
DRIEST. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...NO REAL CLEAR CONCERN AT THIS POINT FOR FROST/FREEZE
BECAUSE OF CYCLONIC FLOW AND CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 142 PM EDT SUNDAY...

KFCX WSR-88D SHOWED RAIN SPREADING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AND IFR WITH RAIN.

A STRONG SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WHICH WILL BRING WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30
KTS. WITH A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...AFTER SUNSET THESE STRONG WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH THE SURFACE. SHORTEN THE TIME WINDOW AND KEPT LLWS IN THE
KLWB AND KBCB TAFS AFTER 00Z/8PM.

CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AND WILL
REMAIN LOW OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER MONDAY
WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
FRONT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS IS LIKELY TO KEEP
PERIODS OF MVFR AND BRIEF IFR IN STORMS UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS THE
REGION MONDAY EVENING.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION...

VFR RETURNS LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS.

THEN THE NEXT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE
IN THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SUNDAY...

HAVE EXPANDED THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS OF
VIRGINIA.

A DEEP LAYER FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE OF SOUTHEAST WINDS...WILL BE INCREASING TO AROUND 50
KNOTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
JUST ABOVE 1.5 INCHES WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE
STRONGEST LIFT AND HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE FROM 18Z/2PM
THROUGH 06Z/2AM SO HAVE ADDED HEAVY RAIN TO THE FORECAST ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH
12Z/8AM MONDAY. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES WERE ROUGHLY 1.5 TO
2.5 INCHES FOR 3 HOURS. SO THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FLOODING ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS.

PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE FOR MAINSTEM RIVERS SUGGESTS A SMALL
POSSIBILITY FOR MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE DAN RIVER AND NEW RIVER.
HOWEVER...THE IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ018>020-022>024-
     033>035.
     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ009-012>017-032.
NC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ001>003-018>020.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS/KK
HYDROLOGY...KK



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 191944
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
344 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT...PUSHING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE
LOCAL AREA. A COLD FRONT THEN CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CLDNS HAS SPREAD ACRS MOST OF THE FA AS OF MID AFTN...W/ RA MAKING
STEADY PROGRESS INTO CNTRL/SRN PORTIONS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN SETTING
UP FOR A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVR THE FA. W/ HI PRES
OFF OF NEW ENG...AND LO PRES W OF THE MTNS...A SIGNFICANT INFLO OF
DP LYRD MOISTURE XPCD OVRNGT AS A WARM FRONT PROGRESSES NE
THROUGH THE FA. HAVE CONTD MENTION OF HVY RA...AND MDLS DO HINT AT
MINIMAL INSTABILITY PUSHING NWD INVOF ERN PORTIONS OF VA AND OVR
NE NC LT THIS EVE/AFT MDNGT SO ADDED SLGT CHC-CHC THUNDER. QPF
AVGG 0.75-1.50"...MAYBE LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS. PCPN AMTS TO RMN BLO
6-12 HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE SO NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE
ISSUED. MAJORITY OF THE RA SHIFTS TO THE CST BY 12Z/20. THERE WILL
ALSO BE GUSTY ESE WNDS TO 20-30 MPH...HIGHEST NR THE CST. ADDED
AREAS OF FG (VSBYS 1-3NM) OVR THE WTRS - AFT MDNGT...DUE TO WARMER
AIR SPREADING OVR COOLER WTRS. LO TEMPS TNGT FM THE M50S TO M60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE AREA OF RAIN WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST MON MRNG...THEN CONCERN
SHIFTS TO A TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY LATE MON
AFTN/EVE (LIKELY LEADING TO SCT SHWRS/TSTMS). SPC CONTS TO PUT THE
AREA OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MON AFTN/EVE FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX IS CERTAINLY THERE GIVEN ML CAPE VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE...STEEP LAPSE
RATES...AND A MODEST SHEAR PROFILE. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT POSSIBLE
STRONG/ISOLD SVR STORMS IN THE HWO FOR LATE MON AFTN/EVE. OTW...VRB
CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY AND BREEZY/WARMER MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON. HI TEMPS
IN THE 70S AT THE CST...80 TO 85 ELSW.

COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FA MON NGT WITH CHC POPS...THEN
DRYING/COOLER WESTERLY FLOW TAKING OVR INTO TUE. PARTLY/MOSTLY
SUNNY TUE WITH HI TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO NR 70 AT THE
COAST...AND L/M70S ELSW.

HI PRES MOVES TO NR THE SE CONUS CST BY WED...PROVIDING WSW FLO
AND CONTG MILD WX. A WK TROUGH SFC-ALOFT WILL BE APPROACHING FM
THE WNW...WHICH MAY RESULT IN INCRSG CLDNS W AND N...ALG W/ PSBL
ISOLD/SCT SHRAS/TSTMS (HWVR WILL CAP POPS AT 14% THOSE AREAS FOR
NOW). LO TEMPS TUE NGT M40S W AND N TO FAR L50S SE. HI TEMPS WED
IN THE L/M70S N AND NW...TO M/U70S CNTRL/SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS UPPER
CLOSED LOW REMAINS IN VIC OF THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD...FAST MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATE
WEDS NIGHT-EARLY THURS MORNING. GFS CONTINUES TO REMAIN ON THE
SLOWER SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE WRT FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH THE ECMWF
QUICKER. BASED ON WLY FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BACK OVER THE
MIDWEST...OPTED TO REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDS NIGHT OVER
THE NRN AND NERN ZONES AND THEN THURS SOUTH AND EAST OF
RICHMOND...TRENDING SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE SLOWER GFS. HIGHS THURS
AROUND NORMAL...LOW-MID 60S. THEREAFTER...COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SWD FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE MIDWEST...EXTENDING INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRI. HIGHS FRI GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S NE TO
MID 60S SE UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND NWLY WINDS. SRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO LIFT INTO THE MIDWEST FRI NIGHT-SAT WITH
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW FORECAST TO PROGRESS EWD ALONG A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF STATES SAT. MOISTURE RETURNS SAT TO GO ALONG
WITH OVERRUNNING AND WEAK PERTURBATIONS ALOFT. INCREASED POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE N TO CHANCE S. HIGHS SAT GENERALLY AROUND 60 ACROSS
THE REGION. SFC LOW MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SAT NIGHT...WITH
ANY REMAINING PRECIP EXPECTED ACROSS THE SE LOCAL AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS SUN...BUT COOL CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S NE TO LOW 60S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS
RESULTING IN ENE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS NEAR
THE COAST WILL INCREASE TO 15-20KT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MVFR AND
IFR CONDITIONS SPREADING RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. IFR
CEILINGS AND OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES. EXPECT SEVERAL HOURS OF
IFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION FROM AROUND 00-03Z
THROUGH AT LEAST 12-15Z. WIDESPREAD RAIN WHICH IS ALREADY MOVING
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VA WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST AND WILL NOT DIMINISH
FROM SW- NE UNTIL 09Z TO 12Z MONDAY. ANOTHER IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING A CHC OF SHRA/TSRA.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY
CONDITIONS TO RETURN. A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID MS
VALLEY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NE COAST AND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
LOCATED NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER. GRADIENT HAS RESULTED IN INCREASING
ELY WINDS OVER THE WATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SCA HEADLINES NOW IN
EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS. SPEEDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS HAVE BUILT
TO 6 FT IN THE NRN WATERS AND 3-4 FT ELSEWHERE. WAVES GENERALLY 2-3
FT. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT...WITH
SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THIS
IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR A SHORT DURATION (~3-5 HR) OF STRONG SCA
CONDITIONS IN SE FLOW. HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE
MIDNIGHT TO 4-5AM TIMEFRAME FOR THE STRONGEST SE WINDS OF 20-25 KT
WITH GUSTS OF 30 KT. BUMPED UP SEAS TO 6-9 FT (HIGHEST IN THE NRN
COASTAL WATERS) LATE TONIGHT. FOG ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS
TONIGHT AS WAA OCCURS OVER COOL WATER. GRADIENT WINDS DIMINISH MON
MORNING AS FLOW BECOMES SLY 10-15 KT. FAVORABLE FETCH/SWELL WILL
KEEP SEAS ELEVATED THRU THE DAY...BUT SUBSIDING TO 4 TO 6 FT. COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE MON...CROSSING THE REGION TUES
NIGHT. SLIGHT UPTICK IN SLY WINDS EXPECTED MON EVENING IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT...AROUND 15 KT IN THE BAY AND 20 KT COASTAL WATERS.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT...WITH STRONG GUSTY
WINDS POSSIBLE. SEAS SUBSIDE LAST MON NIGHT-TUES MORNING THANKS TO
WLY WINDS. SCA CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. HEADLINES
HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THRU 7AM TUES FOR COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF
PARRAMORE ISLAND AND THRU 1PM TUES NORTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AVG QPF 0.75-1.50" TNGT OVR MOST OF THE RIVER BASINS WILL RESULT
IN RIVER LVLS TO PSBLY RISE TO 1/2-NR FULL BANKFULL TUE INTO WED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW TODAY FOLLOWED BY MODEST SE FLOW TONIGHT
WILL ALLOW TIDAL ANOMALIES TO BUILD TO ~1.0FT ABOVE NORMAL LATER
TONIGHT PRIMARILY IN THE MIDDLE BAY AND ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
OF THE MD ERN SHORE. SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING
WILL HELP MAINTAIN ~1.0FT ANOMALIES IN THE MIDDLE BAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY AS
THE FLOW SHIFTS TO OFFSHORE. THE COMBINATION OF TIDAL ANOMALIES
AND HIGH ASTRO TIDES (NEW MOON PHASE) WILL PUSH MOST SITES OVER
HAT DURING HIGH TIDE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. PORTIONS OF THE
MIDDLE BAY AND OCEAN CITY WILL APPROACH MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM
NEAR TERM...ALB/JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ/JAO
MARINE...SAM
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KRNK 191934
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
334 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST
AND COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON
MONDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 333 PM EDT SUNDAY...

FLOOD WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO TONIGHT.

A WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH THIS EVENING AND CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE AND HIGHER PWATS WILL
INCREASE IN THE WARM ADVECTION WITH THE NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. THE REGIONAL RADAR IMAGE SHOWED WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTHEAST US. THERE ARE
SOME CONCERNS OF STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON MAY
TAKE SOME OF THE MOISTURE AWAY FROM OUR AREA. OUR LOCAL RNK
WRFARW...HIRESW-ARW...NAM AND GFS WAIT UNTIL AFTER 00Z BEFORE
BRINGING IN HEAVIER CONVECTION THIS EVENING...WHILE HRRR AND ECMWF
ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH TIMING. THE HRRR AND HIRESW-ARW LIFTS THE
PRECIPITATION NORTHEAST WITH MOST OF RAIN PULLING OUT BY 06-08Z.
USED A BLEND OF HRRR AND NAM FOR POPS...TAPERING POPS BACK AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
WITH CLOUD COVER HINDERING INSTABILITIES. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL
JET INCREASING TO 50-60 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL RESULT IN
STRONG UPSLOPE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE STRONG WINDS THROUGH A
DEEP LAYER WILL PROVIDE LARGE HELICITY VALUES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. THE DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK (SWODY1) PLACED
A MARGINAL (5 PERCENT CHANCE OF WIND) ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
CWA. PLAYED LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO ADJMAV WITH READINGS FROM
THE UPPER 40S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN
THE PIEDMONT.

A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXPECTED MONDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MONDAY. INITIALLY CUT BACK POPS CLOSER
TO NAM FOR MONDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASED TO LIKELY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SPC CONTINUES OUR SLIGHT RISK FOR MONDAY ACROSS MOST OF
OUR CWA. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE DYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH HEALTHY
SHEAR AND DECENT CAPES AROUND 2K.  IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE BREEZY WITH
EFFICIENT DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER IN A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.
THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLEARING MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE
PIEDMONT.



&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SUNDAY...


COLDER AIR WORKING IN ON NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO GENERATE SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR
WESTERN SLOPES MONDAY NIGHT.

A BROAD CLOSED UPPER LOW BUILDING IN OVER THE NORTHEAST US WILL THEN
KEEP COOL...BREEZY...AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MIDWEEK. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR A BREAK IN THE
ACTION AS ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR WEST DISSIPATE BY EARLY
MORNING. BY WEDNESDAY THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE ROTATING IN FROM THE
WEST WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND MAYBE SOME THUNDER ESPECIALLY WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE RUNNING
AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND MID 60S TO AROUND 70 EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT SATURDAY...

MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY ON A DEEP AND BROAD UPPER LOW
CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES DOMINATING THE WEATHER
THROUGH MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL LEAVE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...SOMEWHAT LESS SO ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. FOLLOWING THIS DISTURBANCE COMES THE BONAFIDE COLDER AIR
WHICH PROMISES TO PUSH 850MB TEMPS DOWN TO 0C OR BELOW FOR MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. THE UPPER TROUGH
GRADUALLY SHIFTS MORE TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE IN THE
PERIOD...STRENGTHENING THE NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...AND
ALLOWING 850MB TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT ACROSS THE NORTH AROUND -5C BY
SATURDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE FROM THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS WITH CLOUDS AND
VARIABLE CLOUDS/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MORE SUNNY/DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...PERHAPS MUCH BELOW IN THE WEST. MEXMOS
SHOWS SEVERAL DAYS WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S/60S WEST AND LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. WIND AND CLOUDS SHOULD PREVENT ANY FROST/FREEZE
CONCERN AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 142 PM EDT SUNDAY...

KFCX WSR-88D SHOWED RAIN SPREADING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AND IFR WITH RAIN.

A STRONG SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WHICH WILL BRING WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30
KTS. WITH A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...AFTER SUNSET THESE STRONG WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH THE SURFACE. SHORTEN THE TIME WINDOW AND KEPT LLWS IN THE
KLWB AND KBCB TAFS AFTER 00Z/8PM.

CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AND WILL
REMAIN LOW OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER MONDAY
WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
FRONT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS IS LIKELY TO KEEP
PERIODS OF MVFR AND BRIEF IFR IN STORMS UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS THE
REGION MONDAY EVENING.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION...

VFR RETURNS LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS.

THEN THE NEXT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE
IN THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SUNDAY...

HAVE EXPANDED THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS OF
VIRGINIA.

A DEEP LAYER FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE OF SOUTHEAST WINDS...WILL BE INCREASING TO AROUND 50
KNOTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
JUST ABOVE 1.5 INCHES WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE
STRONGEST LIFT AND HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE FROM 18Z/2PM
THROUGH 06Z/2AM SO HAVE ADDED HEAVY RAIN TO THE FORECAST ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH
12Z/8AM MONDAY. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES WERE ROUGHLY 1.5 TO
2.5 INCHES FOR 3 HOURS. SO THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FLOODING ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS.

PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE FOR MAINSTEM RIVERS SUGGESTS A SMALL
POSSIBILITY FOR MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE DAN RIVER AND NEW RIVER.
HOWEVER...THE IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ018>020-022>024-
     033>035.
     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ009-012>017-032.
NC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ001>003-018>020.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS/KK
HYDROLOGY...AMS/KK



000
FXUS61 KRNK 191934
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
334 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST
AND COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON
MONDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 333 PM EDT SUNDAY...

FLOOD WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO TONIGHT.

A WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH THIS EVENING AND CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE AND HIGHER PWATS WILL
INCREASE IN THE WARM ADVECTION WITH THE NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. THE REGIONAL RADAR IMAGE SHOWED WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTHEAST US. THERE ARE
SOME CONCERNS OF STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON MAY
TAKE SOME OF THE MOISTURE AWAY FROM OUR AREA. OUR LOCAL RNK
WRFARW...HIRESW-ARW...NAM AND GFS WAIT UNTIL AFTER 00Z BEFORE
BRINGING IN HEAVIER CONVECTION THIS EVENING...WHILE HRRR AND ECMWF
ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH TIMING. THE HRRR AND HIRESW-ARW LIFTS THE
PRECIPITATION NORTHEAST WITH MOST OF RAIN PULLING OUT BY 06-08Z.
USED A BLEND OF HRRR AND NAM FOR POPS...TAPERING POPS BACK AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
WITH CLOUD COVER HINDERING INSTABILITIES. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL
JET INCREASING TO 50-60 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL RESULT IN
STRONG UPSLOPE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE STRONG WINDS THROUGH A
DEEP LAYER WILL PROVIDE LARGE HELICITY VALUES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. THE DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK (SWODY1) PLACED
A MARGINAL (5 PERCENT CHANCE OF WIND) ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
CWA. PLAYED LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO ADJMAV WITH READINGS FROM
THE UPPER 40S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN
THE PIEDMONT.

A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXPECTED MONDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MONDAY. INITIALLY CUT BACK POPS CLOSER
TO NAM FOR MONDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASED TO LIKELY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SPC CONTINUES OUR SLIGHT RISK FOR MONDAY ACROSS MOST OF
OUR CWA. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE DYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH HEALTHY
SHEAR AND DECENT CAPES AROUND 2K.  IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE BREEZY WITH
EFFICIENT DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER IN A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.
THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLEARING MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE
PIEDMONT.



&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SUNDAY...


COLDER AIR WORKING IN ON NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO GENERATE SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR
WESTERN SLOPES MONDAY NIGHT.

A BROAD CLOSED UPPER LOW BUILDING IN OVER THE NORTHEAST US WILL THEN
KEEP COOL...BREEZY...AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MIDWEEK. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR A BREAK IN THE
ACTION AS ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR WEST DISSIPATE BY EARLY
MORNING. BY WEDNESDAY THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE ROTATING IN FROM THE
WEST WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND MAYBE SOME THUNDER ESPECIALLY WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE RUNNING
AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND MID 60S TO AROUND 70 EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT SATURDAY...

MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY ON A DEEP AND BROAD UPPER LOW
CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES DOMINATING THE WEATHER
THROUGH MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL LEAVE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...SOMEWHAT LESS SO ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. FOLLOWING THIS DISTURBANCE COMES THE BONAFIDE COLDER AIR
WHICH PROMISES TO PUSH 850MB TEMPS DOWN TO 0C OR BELOW FOR MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. THE UPPER TROUGH
GRADUALLY SHIFTS MORE TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE IN THE
PERIOD...STRENGTHENING THE NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...AND
ALLOWING 850MB TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT ACROSS THE NORTH AROUND -5C BY
SATURDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE FROM THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS WITH CLOUDS AND
VARIABLE CLOUDS/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MORE SUNNY/DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...PERHAPS MUCH BELOW IN THE WEST. MEXMOS
SHOWS SEVERAL DAYS WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S/60S WEST AND LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. WIND AND CLOUDS SHOULD PREVENT ANY FROST/FREEZE
CONCERN AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 142 PM EDT SUNDAY...

KFCX WSR-88D SHOWED RAIN SPREADING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AND IFR WITH RAIN.

A STRONG SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WHICH WILL BRING WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30
KTS. WITH A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...AFTER SUNSET THESE STRONG WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH THE SURFACE. SHORTEN THE TIME WINDOW AND KEPT LLWS IN THE
KLWB AND KBCB TAFS AFTER 00Z/8PM.

CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AND WILL
REMAIN LOW OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER MONDAY
WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
FRONT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS IS LIKELY TO KEEP
PERIODS OF MVFR AND BRIEF IFR IN STORMS UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS THE
REGION MONDAY EVENING.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION...

VFR RETURNS LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS.

THEN THE NEXT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE
IN THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SUNDAY...

HAVE EXPANDED THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS OF
VIRGINIA.

A DEEP LAYER FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE OF SOUTHEAST WINDS...WILL BE INCREASING TO AROUND 50
KNOTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
JUST ABOVE 1.5 INCHES WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE
STRONGEST LIFT AND HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE FROM 18Z/2PM
THROUGH 06Z/2AM SO HAVE ADDED HEAVY RAIN TO THE FORECAST ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH
12Z/8AM MONDAY. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES WERE ROUGHLY 1.5 TO
2.5 INCHES FOR 3 HOURS. SO THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FLOODING ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS.

PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE FOR MAINSTEM RIVERS SUGGESTS A SMALL
POSSIBILITY FOR MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE DAN RIVER AND NEW RIVER.
HOWEVER...THE IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ018>020-022>024-
     033>035.
     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ009-012>017-032.
NC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ001>003-018>020.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS/KK
HYDROLOGY...AMS/KK




000
FXUS61 KRNK 191934
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
334 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST
AND COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON
MONDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 333 PM EDT SUNDAY...

FLOOD WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO TONIGHT.

A WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH THIS EVENING AND CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE AND HIGHER PWATS WILL
INCREASE IN THE WARM ADVECTION WITH THE NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. THE REGIONAL RADAR IMAGE SHOWED WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTHEAST US. THERE ARE
SOME CONCERNS OF STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON MAY
TAKE SOME OF THE MOISTURE AWAY FROM OUR AREA. OUR LOCAL RNK
WRFARW...HIRESW-ARW...NAM AND GFS WAIT UNTIL AFTER 00Z BEFORE
BRINGING IN HEAVIER CONVECTION THIS EVENING...WHILE HRRR AND ECMWF
ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH TIMING. THE HRRR AND HIRESW-ARW LIFTS THE
PRECIPITATION NORTHEAST WITH MOST OF RAIN PULLING OUT BY 06-08Z.
USED A BLEND OF HRRR AND NAM FOR POPS...TAPERING POPS BACK AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
WITH CLOUD COVER HINDERING INSTABILITIES. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL
JET INCREASING TO 50-60 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL RESULT IN
STRONG UPSLOPE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE STRONG WINDS THROUGH A
DEEP LAYER WILL PROVIDE LARGE HELICITY VALUES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. THE DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK (SWODY1) PLACED
A MARGINAL (5 PERCENT CHANCE OF WIND) ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
CWA. PLAYED LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO ADJMAV WITH READINGS FROM
THE UPPER 40S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN
THE PIEDMONT.

A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXPECTED MONDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MONDAY. INITIALLY CUT BACK POPS CLOSER
TO NAM FOR MONDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASED TO LIKELY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SPC CONTINUES OUR SLIGHT RISK FOR MONDAY ACROSS MOST OF
OUR CWA. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE DYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH HEALTHY
SHEAR AND DECENT CAPES AROUND 2K.  IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE BREEZY WITH
EFFICIENT DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER IN A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.
THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLEARING MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE
PIEDMONT.



&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SUNDAY...


COLDER AIR WORKING IN ON NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO GENERATE SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR
WESTERN SLOPES MONDAY NIGHT.

A BROAD CLOSED UPPER LOW BUILDING IN OVER THE NORTHEAST US WILL THEN
KEEP COOL...BREEZY...AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MIDWEEK. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR A BREAK IN THE
ACTION AS ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR WEST DISSIPATE BY EARLY
MORNING. BY WEDNESDAY THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE ROTATING IN FROM THE
WEST WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND MAYBE SOME THUNDER ESPECIALLY WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE RUNNING
AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND MID 60S TO AROUND 70 EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT SATURDAY...

MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY ON A DEEP AND BROAD UPPER LOW
CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES DOMINATING THE WEATHER
THROUGH MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL LEAVE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...SOMEWHAT LESS SO ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. FOLLOWING THIS DISTURBANCE COMES THE BONAFIDE COLDER AIR
WHICH PROMISES TO PUSH 850MB TEMPS DOWN TO 0C OR BELOW FOR MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. THE UPPER TROUGH
GRADUALLY SHIFTS MORE TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE IN THE
PERIOD...STRENGTHENING THE NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...AND
ALLOWING 850MB TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT ACROSS THE NORTH AROUND -5C BY
SATURDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE FROM THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS WITH CLOUDS AND
VARIABLE CLOUDS/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MORE SUNNY/DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...PERHAPS MUCH BELOW IN THE WEST. MEXMOS
SHOWS SEVERAL DAYS WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S/60S WEST AND LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. WIND AND CLOUDS SHOULD PREVENT ANY FROST/FREEZE
CONCERN AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 142 PM EDT SUNDAY...

KFCX WSR-88D SHOWED RAIN SPREADING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AND IFR WITH RAIN.

A STRONG SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WHICH WILL BRING WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30
KTS. WITH A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...AFTER SUNSET THESE STRONG WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH THE SURFACE. SHORTEN THE TIME WINDOW AND KEPT LLWS IN THE
KLWB AND KBCB TAFS AFTER 00Z/8PM.

CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AND WILL
REMAIN LOW OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER MONDAY
WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
FRONT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS IS LIKELY TO KEEP
PERIODS OF MVFR AND BRIEF IFR IN STORMS UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS THE
REGION MONDAY EVENING.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION...

VFR RETURNS LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS.

THEN THE NEXT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE
IN THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SUNDAY...

HAVE EXPANDED THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS OF
VIRGINIA.

A DEEP LAYER FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE OF SOUTHEAST WINDS...WILL BE INCREASING TO AROUND 50
KNOTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
JUST ABOVE 1.5 INCHES WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE
STRONGEST LIFT AND HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE FROM 18Z/2PM
THROUGH 06Z/2AM SO HAVE ADDED HEAVY RAIN TO THE FORECAST ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH
12Z/8AM MONDAY. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES WERE ROUGHLY 1.5 TO
2.5 INCHES FOR 3 HOURS. SO THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FLOODING ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS.

PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE FOR MAINSTEM RIVERS SUGGESTS A SMALL
POSSIBILITY FOR MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE DAN RIVER AND NEW RIVER.
HOWEVER...THE IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ018>020-022>024-
     033>035.
     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ009-012>017-032.
NC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ001>003-018>020.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS/KK
HYDROLOGY...AMS/KK




000
FXUS61 KRNK 191934
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
334 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST
AND COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON
MONDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 333 PM EDT SUNDAY...

FLOOD WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO TONIGHT.

A WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH THIS EVENING AND CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE AND HIGHER PWATS WILL
INCREASE IN THE WARM ADVECTION WITH THE NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. THE REGIONAL RADAR IMAGE SHOWED WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTHEAST US. THERE ARE
SOME CONCERNS OF STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON MAY
TAKE SOME OF THE MOISTURE AWAY FROM OUR AREA. OUR LOCAL RNK
WRFARW...HIRESW-ARW...NAM AND GFS WAIT UNTIL AFTER 00Z BEFORE
BRINGING IN HEAVIER CONVECTION THIS EVENING...WHILE HRRR AND ECMWF
ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH TIMING. THE HRRR AND HIRESW-ARW LIFTS THE
PRECIPITATION NORTHEAST WITH MOST OF RAIN PULLING OUT BY 06-08Z.
USED A BLEND OF HRRR AND NAM FOR POPS...TAPERING POPS BACK AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
WITH CLOUD COVER HINDERING INSTABILITIES. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL
JET INCREASING TO 50-60 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL RESULT IN
STRONG UPSLOPE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE STRONG WINDS THROUGH A
DEEP LAYER WILL PROVIDE LARGE HELICITY VALUES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. THE DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK (SWODY1) PLACED
A MARGINAL (5 PERCENT CHANCE OF WIND) ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
CWA. PLAYED LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO ADJMAV WITH READINGS FROM
THE UPPER 40S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN
THE PIEDMONT.

A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXPECTED MONDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MONDAY. INITIALLY CUT BACK POPS CLOSER
TO NAM FOR MONDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASED TO LIKELY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SPC CONTINUES OUR SLIGHT RISK FOR MONDAY ACROSS MOST OF
OUR CWA. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE DYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH HEALTHY
SHEAR AND DECENT CAPES AROUND 2K.  IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE BREEZY WITH
EFFICIENT DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER IN A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.
THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLEARING MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE
PIEDMONT.



&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SUNDAY...


COLDER AIR WORKING IN ON NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO GENERATE SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR
WESTERN SLOPES MONDAY NIGHT.

A BROAD CLOSED UPPER LOW BUILDING IN OVER THE NORTHEAST US WILL THEN
KEEP COOL...BREEZY...AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MIDWEEK. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR A BREAK IN THE
ACTION AS ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR WEST DISSIPATE BY EARLY
MORNING. BY WEDNESDAY THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE ROTATING IN FROM THE
WEST WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND MAYBE SOME THUNDER ESPECIALLY WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE RUNNING
AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND MID 60S TO AROUND 70 EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT SATURDAY...

MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY ON A DEEP AND BROAD UPPER LOW
CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES DOMINATING THE WEATHER
THROUGH MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL LEAVE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...SOMEWHAT LESS SO ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. FOLLOWING THIS DISTURBANCE COMES THE BONAFIDE COLDER AIR
WHICH PROMISES TO PUSH 850MB TEMPS DOWN TO 0C OR BELOW FOR MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. THE UPPER TROUGH
GRADUALLY SHIFTS MORE TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE IN THE
PERIOD...STRENGTHENING THE NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...AND
ALLOWING 850MB TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT ACROSS THE NORTH AROUND -5C BY
SATURDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE FROM THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS WITH CLOUDS AND
VARIABLE CLOUDS/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MORE SUNNY/DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...PERHAPS MUCH BELOW IN THE WEST. MEXMOS
SHOWS SEVERAL DAYS WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S/60S WEST AND LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. WIND AND CLOUDS SHOULD PREVENT ANY FROST/FREEZE
CONCERN AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 142 PM EDT SUNDAY...

KFCX WSR-88D SHOWED RAIN SPREADING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AND IFR WITH RAIN.

A STRONG SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WHICH WILL BRING WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30
KTS. WITH A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...AFTER SUNSET THESE STRONG WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH THE SURFACE. SHORTEN THE TIME WINDOW AND KEPT LLWS IN THE
KLWB AND KBCB TAFS AFTER 00Z/8PM.

CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AND WILL
REMAIN LOW OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER MONDAY
WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
FRONT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS IS LIKELY TO KEEP
PERIODS OF MVFR AND BRIEF IFR IN STORMS UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS THE
REGION MONDAY EVENING.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION...

VFR RETURNS LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS.

THEN THE NEXT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE
IN THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SUNDAY...

HAVE EXPANDED THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS OF
VIRGINIA.

A DEEP LAYER FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE OF SOUTHEAST WINDS...WILL BE INCREASING TO AROUND 50
KNOTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
JUST ABOVE 1.5 INCHES WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE
STRONGEST LIFT AND HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE FROM 18Z/2PM
THROUGH 06Z/2AM SO HAVE ADDED HEAVY RAIN TO THE FORECAST ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH
12Z/8AM MONDAY. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES WERE ROUGHLY 1.5 TO
2.5 INCHES FOR 3 HOURS. SO THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FLOODING ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS.

PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE FOR MAINSTEM RIVERS SUGGESTS A SMALL
POSSIBILITY FOR MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE DAN RIVER AND NEW RIVER.
HOWEVER...THE IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ018>020-022>024-
     033>035.
     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ009-012>017-032.
NC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ001>003-018>020.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS/KK
HYDROLOGY...AMS/KK




000
FXUS61 KRNK 191934
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
334 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST
AND COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON
MONDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 333 PM EDT SUNDAY...

FLOOD WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO TONIGHT.

A WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH THIS EVENING AND CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE AND HIGHER PWATS WILL
INCREASE IN THE WARM ADVECTION WITH THE NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. THE REGIONAL RADAR IMAGE SHOWED WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTHEAST US. THERE ARE
SOME CONCERNS OF STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON MAY
TAKE SOME OF THE MOISTURE AWAY FROM OUR AREA. OUR LOCAL RNK
WRFARW...HIRESW-ARW...NAM AND GFS WAIT UNTIL AFTER 00Z BEFORE
BRINGING IN HEAVIER CONVECTION THIS EVENING...WHILE HRRR AND ECMWF
ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH TIMING. THE HRRR AND HIRESW-ARW LIFTS THE
PRECIPITATION NORTHEAST WITH MOST OF RAIN PULLING OUT BY 06-08Z.
USED A BLEND OF HRRR AND NAM FOR POPS...TAPERING POPS BACK AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
WITH CLOUD COVER HINDERING INSTABILITIES. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL
JET INCREASING TO 50-60 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL RESULT IN
STRONG UPSLOPE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE STRONG WINDS THROUGH A
DEEP LAYER WILL PROVIDE LARGE HELICITY VALUES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. THE DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK (SWODY1) PLACED
A MARGINAL (5 PERCENT CHANCE OF WIND) ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
CWA. PLAYED LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO ADJMAV WITH READINGS FROM
THE UPPER 40S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN
THE PIEDMONT.

A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXPECTED MONDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MONDAY. INITIALLY CUT BACK POPS CLOSER
TO NAM FOR MONDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASED TO LIKELY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SPC CONTINUES OUR SLIGHT RISK FOR MONDAY ACROSS MOST OF
OUR CWA. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE DYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH HEALTHY
SHEAR AND DECENT CAPES AROUND 2K.  IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE BREEZY WITH
EFFICIENT DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER IN A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.
THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLEARING MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE
PIEDMONT.



&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SUNDAY...


COLDER AIR WORKING IN ON NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO GENERATE SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR
WESTERN SLOPES MONDAY NIGHT.

A BROAD CLOSED UPPER LOW BUILDING IN OVER THE NORTHEAST US WILL THEN
KEEP COOL...BREEZY...AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MIDWEEK. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR A BREAK IN THE
ACTION AS ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR WEST DISSIPATE BY EARLY
MORNING. BY WEDNESDAY THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE ROTATING IN FROM THE
WEST WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND MAYBE SOME THUNDER ESPECIALLY WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE RUNNING
AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND MID 60S TO AROUND 70 EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT SATURDAY...

MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY ON A DEEP AND BROAD UPPER LOW
CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES DOMINATING THE WEATHER
THROUGH MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL LEAVE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...SOMEWHAT LESS SO ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. FOLLOWING THIS DISTURBANCE COMES THE BONAFIDE COLDER AIR
WHICH PROMISES TO PUSH 850MB TEMPS DOWN TO 0C OR BELOW FOR MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. THE UPPER TROUGH
GRADUALLY SHIFTS MORE TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE IN THE
PERIOD...STRENGTHENING THE NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...AND
ALLOWING 850MB TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT ACROSS THE NORTH AROUND -5C BY
SATURDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE FROM THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS WITH CLOUDS AND
VARIABLE CLOUDS/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MORE SUNNY/DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...PERHAPS MUCH BELOW IN THE WEST. MEXMOS
SHOWS SEVERAL DAYS WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S/60S WEST AND LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. WIND AND CLOUDS SHOULD PREVENT ANY FROST/FREEZE
CONCERN AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 142 PM EDT SUNDAY...

KFCX WSR-88D SHOWED RAIN SPREADING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AND IFR WITH RAIN.

A STRONG SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WHICH WILL BRING WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30
KTS. WITH A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...AFTER SUNSET THESE STRONG WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH THE SURFACE. SHORTEN THE TIME WINDOW AND KEPT LLWS IN THE
KLWB AND KBCB TAFS AFTER 00Z/8PM.

CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AND WILL
REMAIN LOW OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER MONDAY
WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
FRONT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS IS LIKELY TO KEEP
PERIODS OF MVFR AND BRIEF IFR IN STORMS UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS THE
REGION MONDAY EVENING.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION...

VFR RETURNS LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS.

THEN THE NEXT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE
IN THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SUNDAY...

HAVE EXPANDED THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS OF
VIRGINIA.

A DEEP LAYER FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE OF SOUTHEAST WINDS...WILL BE INCREASING TO AROUND 50
KNOTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
JUST ABOVE 1.5 INCHES WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE
STRONGEST LIFT AND HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE FROM 18Z/2PM
THROUGH 06Z/2AM SO HAVE ADDED HEAVY RAIN TO THE FORECAST ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH
12Z/8AM MONDAY. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES WERE ROUGHLY 1.5 TO
2.5 INCHES FOR 3 HOURS. SO THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FLOODING ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS.

PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE FOR MAINSTEM RIVERS SUGGESTS A SMALL
POSSIBILITY FOR MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE DAN RIVER AND NEW RIVER.
HOWEVER...THE IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ018>020-022>024-
     033>035.
     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ009-012>017-032.
NC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ001>003-018>020.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS/KK
HYDROLOGY...AMS/KK




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 191922
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
322 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT...PUSHING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE
LOCAL AREA. A COLD FRONT THEN CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CLDNS HAS SPREAD ACRS MOST OF THE FA AS OF MID AFTN...W/ RA MAKING
STEADY PROGRESS INTO CNTRL/SRN PORTIONS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN SETTING
UP FOR A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVR THE FA. W/ HI PRES
OFF OF NEW ENG...AND LO PRES W OF THE MTNS...A SIGNFICANT INFLO OF
DP LYRD MOISTURE XPCD OVRNGT AS A WARM FRONT PROGRESSES NE
THROUGH THE FA. HAVE CONTD MENTION OF HVY RA...AND MDLS DO HINT AT
MINIMAL INSTABILITY PUSHING NWD INVOF ERN PORTIONS OF VA AND OVR
NE NC LT THIS EVE/AFT MDNGT SO ADDED SLGT CHC-CHC THUNDER. QPF
AVGG 0.75-1.50"...MAYBE LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS. PCPN AMTS TO RMN BLO
6-12 HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE SO NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE
ISSUED. MAJORITY OF THE RA SHIFTS TO THE CST BY 12Z/20. THERE WILL
ALSO BE GUSTY ESE WNDS TO 20-30 MPH...HIGHEST NR THE CST. ADDED
AREAS OF FG (VSBYS 1-3NM) OVR THE WTRS - AFT MDNGT...DUE TO WARMER
AIR SPREADING OVR COOLER WTRS. LO TEMPS TNGT FM THE M50S TO M60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE AREA OF RAIN WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST MON MRNG...THEN CONCERN
SHIFTS TO A TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY LATE MON
AFTN/EVE (LIKELY LEADING TO SCT SHWRS/TSTMS). SPC CONTS TO PUT THE
AREA OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MON AFTN/EVE FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX IS CERTAINLY THERE GIVEN ML CAPE VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE...STEEP LAPSE
RATES...AND A MODEST SHEAR PROFILE. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT POSSIBLE
STRONG/ISOLD SVR STORMS IN THE HWO FOR LATE MON AFTN/EVE. OTW...VRB
CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY AND BREEZY/WARMER MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON. HI TEMPS
IN THE 70S AT THE CST...80 TO 85 ELSW.

COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FA MON NGT WITH CHC POPS...THEN
DRYING/COOLER WESTERLY FLOW TAKING OVR INTO TUE. PARTLY/MOSTLY
SUNNY TUE WITH HI TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO NR 70 AT THE
COAST...AND L/M70S ELSW.

HI PRES MOVES TO NR THE SE CONUS CST BY WED...PROVIDING WSW FLO
AND CONTG MILD WX. A WK TROUGH SFC-ALOFT WILL BE APPROACHING FM
THE WNW...WHICH MAY RESULT IN INCRSG CLDNS W AND N...ALG W/ PSBL
ISOLD/SCT SHRAS/TSTMS (HWVR WILL CAP POPS AT 14% THOSE AREAS FOR
NOW). LO TEMPS TUE NGT M40S W AND N TO FAR L50S SE. HI TEMPS WED
IN THE L/M70S N AND NW...TO M/U70S CNTRL/SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LOW REMAINS IN VIC OF THE GREAT LAKES THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD
THANKS TO BLOCKY FLOW OVER THE HIGHER LATITUDES. FAST WLY/ZONAL FLOW
PROGGED OVER THE LOCAL AREA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SE
STATES/SRN MID ATLANTIC TUES NIGHT-WEDS MORNING...SLIDING OFFSHORE
WEDS AFTERNOON. THE RESULT IS A MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WEDS WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...UPPER 60S TO 70 INLAND AND MID-
UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
STACKED UPPER LOW INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE WEDS-WEDS NIGHT.
ASSOCIATED FAST MOVING COLD FRONT REACHED THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS
WEDS NIGHT...CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THURS. FRONT EXPECTED TO
STALL VIC NC THURS NIGHT DUE TO WLY FLOW ALOFT. QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH MOISTURE RETURN THERE IS THURS AS ECMWF REMAINS DRY AND THE GFS
RATHER MOIST. DIFFERENCE IS LOW LEVEL SWLY FLOW IN GFS COMPARED TO
WLY FLOW IN THE ECMWF. TRENDED TOWARD DRIER ECMWF...DROPPING POPS TO
SILENT THURS-THURS NIGHT. HIGHS THURS REMAINING AROUND
NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE OH VALLEY THURS NIGHT-FRI...EXTENDING INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS...NWLY
WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FRI...GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S
INLAND TO UPPER 50S-LOW 60S COASTAL AREAS. MODELS PICKING UP ON A
SRN STREAM SYSTEM CROSSING THE SE STATES SAT. MENTIONED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SRN VA/NE NC...CLOSEST TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BEST
MOISTURE RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS
RESULTING IN ENE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS NEAR
THE COAST WILL INCREASE TO 15-20KT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MVFR AND
IFR CONDITIONS SPREADING RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. IFR
CEILINGS AND OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES. EXPECT SEVERAL HOURS OF
IFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION FROM AROUND 00-03Z
THROUGH AT LEAST 12-15Z. WIDESPREAD RAIN WHICH IS ALREADY MOVING
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VA WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST AND WILL NOT DIMINISH
FROM SW- NE UNTIL 09Z TO 12Z MONDAY. ANOTHER IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING A CHC OF SHRA/TSRA.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY
CONDITIONS TO RETURN. A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PRESENTLY ENTERING THE NRN OCEAN ZONES WILL
DROP N-S ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL PRODUCE A
WIND SHIFT TO NE. SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10-
15KT...ALTHOUGH SPEEDS COULD BRIEFLY REACH 20KT IN THE IMMEDIATE
WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH SECONDARY
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT. THIS IS A
FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR A SHORT DURATION (~3-5 HR)OF STRONG SCA
CONDITIONS IN SE FLOW. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS TO BE CENTERED
AROUND 09Z TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
15-20KT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE INCREASING TO 20-25KT
WITH GUSTS ~30KT LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. SEAS BUILD TO
4-5FT TODAY...AND THEN 5-7FT TONIGHT...BEFORE BEGINNING TO
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE MONDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. INHERITED SCAS REMAIN SIMILAR. THE MAIN
CHANGES WERE TO ADD THE UPPER JAMES...AND EXTEND THE
BAY/SOUND/RIVERS SEGMENTS THROUGH 10AM MONDAY. ADDITIONALLY...THE
NRN OCEAN ZONES (N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND) WERE EXTENDED THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WHERE SEAS WILL REMAIN 4-5FT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE W MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND MOVES ACROSS THE COAST
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER
SHOWERS/TSTMS...WHICH WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING STRONG
WIND GUSTS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AVG QPF 0.75-1.50" TNGT OVR MOST OF THE RIVER BASINS WILL RESULT
IN RIVER LVLS TO PSBLY RISE TO 1/2-NR FULL BANKFULL TUE INTO WED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW TODAY FOLLOWED BY MODEST SE FLOW TONIGHT
WILL ALLOW TIDAL ANOMALIES TO BUILD TO ~1.0FT ABOVE NORMAL LATER
TONIGHT PRIMARILY IN THE MIDDLE BAY AND ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
OF THE MD ERN SHORE. SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING
WILL HELP MAINTAIN ~1.0FT ANOMALIES IN THE MIDDLE BAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY AS
THE FLOW SHIFTS TO OFFSHORE. THE COMBINATION OF TIDAL ANOMALIES
AND HIGH ASTRO TIDES (NEW MOON PHASE) WILL PUSH MOST SITES OVER
HAT DURING HIGH TIDE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. PORTIONS OF THE
MIDDLE BAY AND OCEAN CITY WILL APPROACH MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM
NEAR TERM...ALB/JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ/JAO
MARINE...SAM
HYDROLOGY...AKQ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 191922
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
322 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT...PUSHING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE
LOCAL AREA. A COLD FRONT THEN CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CLDNS HAS SPREAD ACRS MOST OF THE FA AS OF MID AFTN...W/ RA MAKING
STEADY PROGRESS INTO CNTRL/SRN PORTIONS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN SETTING
UP FOR A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVR THE FA. W/ HI PRES
OFF OF NEW ENG...AND LO PRES W OF THE MTNS...A SIGNFICANT INFLO OF
DP LYRD MOISTURE XPCD OVRNGT AS A WARM FRONT PROGRESSES NE
THROUGH THE FA. HAVE CONTD MENTION OF HVY RA...AND MDLS DO HINT AT
MINIMAL INSTABILITY PUSHING NWD INVOF ERN PORTIONS OF VA AND OVR
NE NC LT THIS EVE/AFT MDNGT SO ADDED SLGT CHC-CHC THUNDER. QPF
AVGG 0.75-1.50"...MAYBE LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS. PCPN AMTS TO RMN BLO
6-12 HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE SO NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE
ISSUED. MAJORITY OF THE RA SHIFTS TO THE CST BY 12Z/20. THERE WILL
ALSO BE GUSTY ESE WNDS TO 20-30 MPH...HIGHEST NR THE CST. ADDED
AREAS OF FG (VSBYS 1-3NM) OVR THE WTRS - AFT MDNGT...DUE TO WARMER
AIR SPREADING OVR COOLER WTRS. LO TEMPS TNGT FM THE M50S TO M60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE AREA OF RAIN WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST MON MRNG...THEN CONCERN
SHIFTS TO A TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY LATE MON
AFTN/EVE (LIKELY LEADING TO SCT SHWRS/TSTMS). SPC CONTS TO PUT THE
AREA OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MON AFTN/EVE FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX IS CERTAINLY THERE GIVEN ML CAPE VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE...STEEP LAPSE
RATES...AND A MODEST SHEAR PROFILE. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT POSSIBLE
STRONG/ISOLD SVR STORMS IN THE HWO FOR LATE MON AFTN/EVE. OTW...VRB
CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY AND BREEZY/WARMER MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON. HI TEMPS
IN THE 70S AT THE CST...80 TO 85 ELSW.

COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FA MON NGT WITH CHC POPS...THEN
DRYING/COOLER WESTERLY FLOW TAKING OVR INTO TUE. PARTLY/MOSTLY
SUNNY TUE WITH HI TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO NR 70 AT THE
COAST...AND L/M70S ELSW.

HI PRES MOVES TO NR THE SE CONUS CST BY WED...PROVIDING WSW FLO
AND CONTG MILD WX. A WK TROUGH SFC-ALOFT WILL BE APPROACHING FM
THE WNW...WHICH MAY RESULT IN INCRSG CLDNS W AND N...ALG W/ PSBL
ISOLD/SCT SHRAS/TSTMS (HWVR WILL CAP POPS AT 14% THOSE AREAS FOR
NOW). LO TEMPS TUE NGT M40S W AND N TO FAR L50S SE. HI TEMPS WED
IN THE L/M70S N AND NW...TO M/U70S CNTRL/SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LOW REMAINS IN VIC OF THE GREAT LAKES THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD
THANKS TO BLOCKY FLOW OVER THE HIGHER LATITUDES. FAST WLY/ZONAL FLOW
PROGGED OVER THE LOCAL AREA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SE
STATES/SRN MID ATLANTIC TUES NIGHT-WEDS MORNING...SLIDING OFFSHORE
WEDS AFTERNOON. THE RESULT IS A MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WEDS WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...UPPER 60S TO 70 INLAND AND MID-
UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
STACKED UPPER LOW INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE WEDS-WEDS NIGHT.
ASSOCIATED FAST MOVING COLD FRONT REACHED THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS
WEDS NIGHT...CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THURS. FRONT EXPECTED TO
STALL VIC NC THURS NIGHT DUE TO WLY FLOW ALOFT. QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH MOISTURE RETURN THERE IS THURS AS ECMWF REMAINS DRY AND THE GFS
RATHER MOIST. DIFFERENCE IS LOW LEVEL SWLY FLOW IN GFS COMPARED TO
WLY FLOW IN THE ECMWF. TRENDED TOWARD DRIER ECMWF...DROPPING POPS TO
SILENT THURS-THURS NIGHT. HIGHS THURS REMAINING AROUND
NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE OH VALLEY THURS NIGHT-FRI...EXTENDING INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS...NWLY
WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FRI...GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S
INLAND TO UPPER 50S-LOW 60S COASTAL AREAS. MODELS PICKING UP ON A
SRN STREAM SYSTEM CROSSING THE SE STATES SAT. MENTIONED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SRN VA/NE NC...CLOSEST TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BEST
MOISTURE RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS
RESULTING IN ENE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS NEAR
THE COAST WILL INCREASE TO 15-20KT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MVFR AND
IFR CONDITIONS SPREADING RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. IFR
CEILINGS AND OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES. EXPECT SEVERAL HOURS OF
IFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION FROM AROUND 00-03Z
THROUGH AT LEAST 12-15Z. WIDESPREAD RAIN WHICH IS ALREADY MOVING
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VA WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST AND WILL NOT DIMINISH
FROM SW- NE UNTIL 09Z TO 12Z MONDAY. ANOTHER IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING A CHC OF SHRA/TSRA.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY
CONDITIONS TO RETURN. A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PRESENTLY ENTERING THE NRN OCEAN ZONES WILL
DROP N-S ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL PRODUCE A
WIND SHIFT TO NE. SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10-
15KT...ALTHOUGH SPEEDS COULD BRIEFLY REACH 20KT IN THE IMMEDIATE
WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH SECONDARY
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT. THIS IS A
FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR A SHORT DURATION (~3-5 HR)OF STRONG SCA
CONDITIONS IN SE FLOW. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS TO BE CENTERED
AROUND 09Z TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
15-20KT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE INCREASING TO 20-25KT
WITH GUSTS ~30KT LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. SEAS BUILD TO
4-5FT TODAY...AND THEN 5-7FT TONIGHT...BEFORE BEGINNING TO
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE MONDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. INHERITED SCAS REMAIN SIMILAR. THE MAIN
CHANGES WERE TO ADD THE UPPER JAMES...AND EXTEND THE
BAY/SOUND/RIVERS SEGMENTS THROUGH 10AM MONDAY. ADDITIONALLY...THE
NRN OCEAN ZONES (N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND) WERE EXTENDED THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WHERE SEAS WILL REMAIN 4-5FT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE W MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND MOVES ACROSS THE COAST
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER
SHOWERS/TSTMS...WHICH WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING STRONG
WIND GUSTS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AVG QPF 0.75-1.50" TNGT OVR MOST OF THE RIVER BASINS WILL RESULT
IN RIVER LVLS TO PSBLY RISE TO 1/2-NR FULL BANKFULL TUE INTO WED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW TODAY FOLLOWED BY MODEST SE FLOW TONIGHT
WILL ALLOW TIDAL ANOMALIES TO BUILD TO ~1.0FT ABOVE NORMAL LATER
TONIGHT PRIMARILY IN THE MIDDLE BAY AND ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
OF THE MD ERN SHORE. SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING
WILL HELP MAINTAIN ~1.0FT ANOMALIES IN THE MIDDLE BAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY AS
THE FLOW SHIFTS TO OFFSHORE. THE COMBINATION OF TIDAL ANOMALIES
AND HIGH ASTRO TIDES (NEW MOON PHASE) WILL PUSH MOST SITES OVER
HAT DURING HIGH TIDE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. PORTIONS OF THE
MIDDLE BAY AND OCEAN CITY WILL APPROACH MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM
NEAR TERM...ALB/JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ/JAO
MARINE...SAM
HYDROLOGY...AKQ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 191922
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
322 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT...PUSHING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE
LOCAL AREA. A COLD FRONT THEN CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CLDNS HAS SPREAD ACRS MOST OF THE FA AS OF MID AFTN...W/ RA MAKING
STEADY PROGRESS INTO CNTRL/SRN PORTIONS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN SETTING
UP FOR A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVR THE FA. W/ HI PRES
OFF OF NEW ENG...AND LO PRES W OF THE MTNS...A SIGNFICANT INFLO OF
DP LYRD MOISTURE XPCD OVRNGT AS A WARM FRONT PROGRESSES NE
THROUGH THE FA. HAVE CONTD MENTION OF HVY RA...AND MDLS DO HINT AT
MINIMAL INSTABILITY PUSHING NWD INVOF ERN PORTIONS OF VA AND OVR
NE NC LT THIS EVE/AFT MDNGT SO ADDED SLGT CHC-CHC THUNDER. QPF
AVGG 0.75-1.50"...MAYBE LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS. PCPN AMTS TO RMN BLO
6-12 HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE SO NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE
ISSUED. MAJORITY OF THE RA SHIFTS TO THE CST BY 12Z/20. THERE WILL
ALSO BE GUSTY ESE WNDS TO 20-30 MPH...HIGHEST NR THE CST. ADDED
AREAS OF FG (VSBYS 1-3NM) OVR THE WTRS - AFT MDNGT...DUE TO WARMER
AIR SPREADING OVR COOLER WTRS. LO TEMPS TNGT FM THE M50S TO M60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE AREA OF RAIN WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST MON MRNG...THEN CONCERN
SHIFTS TO A TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY LATE MON
AFTN/EVE (LIKELY LEADING TO SCT SHWRS/TSTMS). SPC CONTS TO PUT THE
AREA OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MON AFTN/EVE FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX IS CERTAINLY THERE GIVEN ML CAPE VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE...STEEP LAPSE
RATES...AND A MODEST SHEAR PROFILE. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT POSSIBLE
STRONG/ISOLD SVR STORMS IN THE HWO FOR LATE MON AFTN/EVE. OTW...VRB
CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY AND BREEZY/WARMER MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON. HI TEMPS
IN THE 70S AT THE CST...80 TO 85 ELSW.

COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FA MON NGT WITH CHC POPS...THEN
DRYING/COOLER WESTERLY FLOW TAKING OVR INTO TUE. PARTLY/MOSTLY
SUNNY TUE WITH HI TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO NR 70 AT THE
COAST...AND L/M70S ELSW.

HI PRES MOVES TO NR THE SE CONUS CST BY WED...PROVIDING WSW FLO
AND CONTG MILD WX. A WK TROUGH SFC-ALOFT WILL BE APPROACHING FM
THE WNW...WHICH MAY RESULT IN INCRSG CLDNS W AND N...ALG W/ PSBL
ISOLD/SCT SHRAS/TSTMS (HWVR WILL CAP POPS AT 14% THOSE AREAS FOR
NOW). LO TEMPS TUE NGT M40S W AND N TO FAR L50S SE. HI TEMPS WED
IN THE L/M70S N AND NW...TO M/U70S CNTRL/SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LOW REMAINS IN VIC OF THE GREAT LAKES THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD
THANKS TO BLOCKY FLOW OVER THE HIGHER LATITUDES. FAST WLY/ZONAL FLOW
PROGGED OVER THE LOCAL AREA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SE
STATES/SRN MID ATLANTIC TUES NIGHT-WEDS MORNING...SLIDING OFFSHORE
WEDS AFTERNOON. THE RESULT IS A MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WEDS WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...UPPER 60S TO 70 INLAND AND MID-
UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
STACKED UPPER LOW INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE WEDS-WEDS NIGHT.
ASSOCIATED FAST MOVING COLD FRONT REACHED THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS
WEDS NIGHT...CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THURS. FRONT EXPECTED TO
STALL VIC NC THURS NIGHT DUE TO WLY FLOW ALOFT. QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH MOISTURE RETURN THERE IS THURS AS ECMWF REMAINS DRY AND THE GFS
RATHER MOIST. DIFFERENCE IS LOW LEVEL SWLY FLOW IN GFS COMPARED TO
WLY FLOW IN THE ECMWF. TRENDED TOWARD DRIER ECMWF...DROPPING POPS TO
SILENT THURS-THURS NIGHT. HIGHS THURS REMAINING AROUND
NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE OH VALLEY THURS NIGHT-FRI...EXTENDING INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS...NWLY
WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FRI...GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S
INLAND TO UPPER 50S-LOW 60S COASTAL AREAS. MODELS PICKING UP ON A
SRN STREAM SYSTEM CROSSING THE SE STATES SAT. MENTIONED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SRN VA/NE NC...CLOSEST TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BEST
MOISTURE RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS
RESULTING IN ENE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS NEAR
THE COAST WILL INCREASE TO 15-20KT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MVFR AND
IFR CONDITIONS SPREADING RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. IFR
CEILINGS AND OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES. EXPECT SEVERAL HOURS OF
IFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION FROM AROUND 00-03Z
THROUGH AT LEAST 12-15Z. WIDESPREAD RAIN WHICH IS ALREADY MOVING
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VA WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST AND WILL NOT DIMINISH
FROM SW- NE UNTIL 09Z TO 12Z MONDAY. ANOTHER IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING A CHC OF SHRA/TSRA.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY
CONDITIONS TO RETURN. A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PRESENTLY ENTERING THE NRN OCEAN ZONES WILL
DROP N-S ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL PRODUCE A
WIND SHIFT TO NE. SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10-
15KT...ALTHOUGH SPEEDS COULD BRIEFLY REACH 20KT IN THE IMMEDIATE
WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH SECONDARY
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT. THIS IS A
FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR A SHORT DURATION (~3-5 HR)OF STRONG SCA
CONDITIONS IN SE FLOW. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS TO BE CENTERED
AROUND 09Z TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
15-20KT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE INCREASING TO 20-25KT
WITH GUSTS ~30KT LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. SEAS BUILD TO
4-5FT TODAY...AND THEN 5-7FT TONIGHT...BEFORE BEGINNING TO
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE MONDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. INHERITED SCAS REMAIN SIMILAR. THE MAIN
CHANGES WERE TO ADD THE UPPER JAMES...AND EXTEND THE
BAY/SOUND/RIVERS SEGMENTS THROUGH 10AM MONDAY. ADDITIONALLY...THE
NRN OCEAN ZONES (N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND) WERE EXTENDED THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WHERE SEAS WILL REMAIN 4-5FT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE W MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND MOVES ACROSS THE COAST
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER
SHOWERS/TSTMS...WHICH WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING STRONG
WIND GUSTS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AVG QPF 0.75-1.50" TNGT OVR MOST OF THE RIVER BASINS WILL RESULT
IN RIVER LVLS TO PSBLY RISE TO 1/2-NR FULL BANKFULL TUE INTO WED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW TODAY FOLLOWED BY MODEST SE FLOW TONIGHT
WILL ALLOW TIDAL ANOMALIES TO BUILD TO ~1.0FT ABOVE NORMAL LATER
TONIGHT PRIMARILY IN THE MIDDLE BAY AND ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
OF THE MD ERN SHORE. SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING
WILL HELP MAINTAIN ~1.0FT ANOMALIES IN THE MIDDLE BAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY AS
THE FLOW SHIFTS TO OFFSHORE. THE COMBINATION OF TIDAL ANOMALIES
AND HIGH ASTRO TIDES (NEW MOON PHASE) WILL PUSH MOST SITES OVER
HAT DURING HIGH TIDE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. PORTIONS OF THE
MIDDLE BAY AND OCEAN CITY WILL APPROACH MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM
NEAR TERM...ALB/JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ/JAO
MARINE...SAM
HYDROLOGY...AKQ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 191922
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
322 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT...PUSHING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE
LOCAL AREA. A COLD FRONT THEN CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CLDNS HAS SPREAD ACRS MOST OF THE FA AS OF MID AFTN...W/ RA MAKING
STEADY PROGRESS INTO CNTRL/SRN PORTIONS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN SETTING
UP FOR A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVR THE FA. W/ HI PRES
OFF OF NEW ENG...AND LO PRES W OF THE MTNS...A SIGNFICANT INFLO OF
DP LYRD MOISTURE XPCD OVRNGT AS A WARM FRONT PROGRESSES NE
THROUGH THE FA. HAVE CONTD MENTION OF HVY RA...AND MDLS DO HINT AT
MINIMAL INSTABILITY PUSHING NWD INVOF ERN PORTIONS OF VA AND OVR
NE NC LT THIS EVE/AFT MDNGT SO ADDED SLGT CHC-CHC THUNDER. QPF
AVGG 0.75-1.50"...MAYBE LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS. PCPN AMTS TO RMN BLO
6-12 HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE SO NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE
ISSUED. MAJORITY OF THE RA SHIFTS TO THE CST BY 12Z/20. THERE WILL
ALSO BE GUSTY ESE WNDS TO 20-30 MPH...HIGHEST NR THE CST. ADDED
AREAS OF FG (VSBYS 1-3NM) OVR THE WTRS - AFT MDNGT...DUE TO WARMER
AIR SPREADING OVR COOLER WTRS. LO TEMPS TNGT FM THE M50S TO M60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE AREA OF RAIN WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST MON MRNG...THEN CONCERN
SHIFTS TO A TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY LATE MON
AFTN/EVE (LIKELY LEADING TO SCT SHWRS/TSTMS). SPC CONTS TO PUT THE
AREA OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MON AFTN/EVE FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX IS CERTAINLY THERE GIVEN ML CAPE VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE...STEEP LAPSE
RATES...AND A MODEST SHEAR PROFILE. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT POSSIBLE
STRONG/ISOLD SVR STORMS IN THE HWO FOR LATE MON AFTN/EVE. OTW...VRB
CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY AND BREEZY/WARMER MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON. HI TEMPS
IN THE 70S AT THE CST...80 TO 85 ELSW.

COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FA MON NGT WITH CHC POPS...THEN
DRYING/COOLER WESTERLY FLOW TAKING OVR INTO TUE. PARTLY/MOSTLY
SUNNY TUE WITH HI TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO NR 70 AT THE
COAST...AND L/M70S ELSW.

HI PRES MOVES TO NR THE SE CONUS CST BY WED...PROVIDING WSW FLO
AND CONTG MILD WX. A WK TROUGH SFC-ALOFT WILL BE APPROACHING FM
THE WNW...WHICH MAY RESULT IN INCRSG CLDNS W AND N...ALG W/ PSBL
ISOLD/SCT SHRAS/TSTMS (HWVR WILL CAP POPS AT 14% THOSE AREAS FOR
NOW). LO TEMPS TUE NGT M40S W AND N TO FAR L50S SE. HI TEMPS WED
IN THE L/M70S N AND NW...TO M/U70S CNTRL/SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LOW REMAINS IN VIC OF THE GREAT LAKES THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD
THANKS TO BLOCKY FLOW OVER THE HIGHER LATITUDES. FAST WLY/ZONAL FLOW
PROGGED OVER THE LOCAL AREA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SE
STATES/SRN MID ATLANTIC TUES NIGHT-WEDS MORNING...SLIDING OFFSHORE
WEDS AFTERNOON. THE RESULT IS A MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WEDS WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...UPPER 60S TO 70 INLAND AND MID-
UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
STACKED UPPER LOW INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE WEDS-WEDS NIGHT.
ASSOCIATED FAST MOVING COLD FRONT REACHED THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS
WEDS NIGHT...CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THURS. FRONT EXPECTED TO
STALL VIC NC THURS NIGHT DUE TO WLY FLOW ALOFT. QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH MOISTURE RETURN THERE IS THURS AS ECMWF REMAINS DRY AND THE GFS
RATHER MOIST. DIFFERENCE IS LOW LEVEL SWLY FLOW IN GFS COMPARED TO
WLY FLOW IN THE ECMWF. TRENDED TOWARD DRIER ECMWF...DROPPING POPS TO
SILENT THURS-THURS NIGHT. HIGHS THURS REMAINING AROUND
NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE OH VALLEY THURS NIGHT-FRI...EXTENDING INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS...NWLY
WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FRI...GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S
INLAND TO UPPER 50S-LOW 60S COASTAL AREAS. MODELS PICKING UP ON A
SRN STREAM SYSTEM CROSSING THE SE STATES SAT. MENTIONED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SRN VA/NE NC...CLOSEST TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BEST
MOISTURE RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS
RESULTING IN ENE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS NEAR
THE COAST WILL INCREASE TO 15-20KT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MVFR AND
IFR CONDITIONS SPREADING RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. IFR
CEILINGS AND OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES. EXPECT SEVERAL HOURS OF
IFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION FROM AROUND 00-03Z
THROUGH AT LEAST 12-15Z. WIDESPREAD RAIN WHICH IS ALREADY MOVING
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VA WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST AND WILL NOT DIMINISH
FROM SW- NE UNTIL 09Z TO 12Z MONDAY. ANOTHER IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING A CHC OF SHRA/TSRA.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY
CONDITIONS TO RETURN. A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PRESENTLY ENTERING THE NRN OCEAN ZONES WILL
DROP N-S ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL PRODUCE A
WIND SHIFT TO NE. SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10-
15KT...ALTHOUGH SPEEDS COULD BRIEFLY REACH 20KT IN THE IMMEDIATE
WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH SECONDARY
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT. THIS IS A
FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR A SHORT DURATION (~3-5 HR)OF STRONG SCA
CONDITIONS IN SE FLOW. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS TO BE CENTERED
AROUND 09Z TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
15-20KT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE INCREASING TO 20-25KT
WITH GUSTS ~30KT LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. SEAS BUILD TO
4-5FT TODAY...AND THEN 5-7FT TONIGHT...BEFORE BEGINNING TO
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE MONDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. INHERITED SCAS REMAIN SIMILAR. THE MAIN
CHANGES WERE TO ADD THE UPPER JAMES...AND EXTEND THE
BAY/SOUND/RIVERS SEGMENTS THROUGH 10AM MONDAY. ADDITIONALLY...THE
NRN OCEAN ZONES (N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND) WERE EXTENDED THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WHERE SEAS WILL REMAIN 4-5FT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE W MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND MOVES ACROSS THE COAST
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER
SHOWERS/TSTMS...WHICH WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING STRONG
WIND GUSTS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AVG QPF 0.75-1.50" TNGT OVR MOST OF THE RIVER BASINS WILL RESULT
IN RIVER LVLS TO PSBLY RISE TO 1/2-NR FULL BANKFULL TUE INTO WED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW TODAY FOLLOWED BY MODEST SE FLOW TONIGHT
WILL ALLOW TIDAL ANOMALIES TO BUILD TO ~1.0FT ABOVE NORMAL LATER
TONIGHT PRIMARILY IN THE MIDDLE BAY AND ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
OF THE MD ERN SHORE. SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING
WILL HELP MAINTAIN ~1.0FT ANOMALIES IN THE MIDDLE BAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY AS
THE FLOW SHIFTS TO OFFSHORE. THE COMBINATION OF TIDAL ANOMALIES
AND HIGH ASTRO TIDES (NEW MOON PHASE) WILL PUSH MOST SITES OVER
HAT DURING HIGH TIDE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. PORTIONS OF THE
MIDDLE BAY AND OCEAN CITY WILL APPROACH MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM
NEAR TERM...ALB/JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ/JAO
MARINE...SAM
HYDROLOGY...AKQ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ



000
FXUS61 KLWX 191921
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
321 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM QUEBEC ACROSS NEW ENGLAND DOWN TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT FROM
A LOW OVER THE MIDWEST WILL LIFT NORTH FROM THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY
AND THE CAROLINAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY. AN UPPER LOW
WILL THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

AS OF 18Z...1025-1027MB SFC RIDGE STRETCHES FROM CENTRAL QUEBEC TO
THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST...THEN DOWN THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. ELY
FLOW OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH IS ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS IS A DRY WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS IMPEDING RAIN FROM
QUICKLY ADVANCING NORTH FROM SWRN VA AND CNTRL NC. HOWEVER...THE
RAIN WILL EVENTUALLY WIN OUT AS IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING
LOW LIFTING NORTH OVER THE MIDWEST.

FLOOD THREAT IS HIGHEST FOR ERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE THE
ELY THEN SELY FLOW ON THE RIDGE WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION TO AROUND
2 INCHES...AS WELL AS THE URBAN AREAS IN THE BALTIMORE-WASHINGTON
METRO. THESE AREAS HAVE THE LOWEST FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE OF AROUND
1.5 INCHES (APPROX STORM TOTAL QPF) IN SIX HOURS. THE FLOOD WATCH
EXPANDS THESE AREAS TO INCLUDE OTHER PROBLEMATIC AREAS SUCH AS THE
RIDGE/VALLEYS WEST FROM THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. TIMING WAS BASED ON
HEAVIER RAIN ONSET...THOUGH THE ACTUAL FLOOD THREAT BEGINS THIS
EVENING FOR THE SWRN ZONES AND OVERNIGHT FOR THE METRO AREAS.

PWATS ARE AROUND 1.5IN IN SWRN VA ACCORDING TO GPS DATA IN THE
BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT. THIS WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA. 1.5IN PW WOULD BE AROUND THE MAX FOR THE MID APRIL
RECORD AT IAD PER SPC SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY.

ONE FACTOR TO ALWAYS CONSIDER WITH GULF PLUMES IS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IN THE SERN STATES THAT SQUEEZES OUT MUCH OF THE MOISTURE.
THIS IS OCCURRING OVER GA. HOWEVER...THERE IS ADDITIONAL FETCH FROM
THE GULF STREAM OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...SO AMPLE MOISTURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO CAUSE HEAVY RAIN AND LOW END FLOODING CONCERNS.

MESOLOW ALONG THE WARM FRONT WILL DIRECT THE PATHS OF A 50KT
SLY/SELY LLJ AROUND 2 KFT LATE TONIGHT. THE 12Z GFS SHIFTED THE LOW
TRACK WEST TO THE BLUE RIDGE (PREVIOUSLY THE PIEDMONT). THERE WILL
BE AN INVERSION WITH THIS...BUT THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS COULD MIX DOWN
GUSTY WINDS EAST OF I-95.  THE GREATEST CONCERN FOR THESE WINDS ARE
FOR MARINE AREAS (SEE MARINE SECTION BELOW). ADDED ISO THUNDER
WORDING FOR SRN MD LATE TONIGHT AS THE HEAD OF THE THETA-E RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST OVER THE AREA.

SREF TYPICALLY DOES A GOOD JOB WITH MIN TEMPS DURING RAINY NIGHTS
SUCH AS TONIGHT. EXPECT MINS AROUND 50F FOR THE NRN TIER OF
COUNTIES...THEN MID TO UPR 50S AS YOU HEAD SOUTH FROM THERE.

MONDAY...WARM FRONT CLEARS NERN MD IN THE MID-MORNING WITH LITTLE
RAIN IMMEDIATELY BEHIND. ADJUSTED POPS TO BE SILENT/SCHC FOR LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT CROSSES FROM THE WEST LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. EXPECT CLOUD BREAKS TO ALLOW
SOME SUNSHINE AND DESTABILIZATION. AGREE WITH A SLIGHT RISK OVER THE
AREA AS 500-1000 J/KG SBCAPE AND 30 KT BULK SHEAR COULD ENABLE
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH BOTH HAIL AND WIND THREATS. MAX
TEMPS GENERALLY MDI TO UPR 70S...THOUGH MORE 80S (AND STRONGER
STORMS) CAN BE EXPECTED WITH MORE SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CDFNT LKLY TO BE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE BLURDG AT START OF PD...AND WL
BE PUSHING EAST OF THE DELMARVA THRU THE EVNG. IN APRIL...SUNSET
TYPICALLY MARKS THE END OF ANY STRONG THUNDER THREAT...BUT GFS
SUGGESTING THAT LAPSE RATES WL STILL BE STEEP STRAIGHT THRU FROPA.
ANTICIPATE THAT TSTMS WL CONT BUT SEVERITY MAY START TO WEAKEN. WL
CARRY A LWR ORDER THUNDER THREAT.

OTRW...MON NGT WL BE MARKED BY RAPID DRYING AND STRONG CAA. HV SKIES
MOSTLY CLRG OUT OVNGT E OF APLCNS. THINK THERE WL BE PARTIAL DCPLG
BY DAWN...SO AM FOCUSING ON HILLTOPS FOR THE HIER WNDS /20 KT/. AM A
PINCH ON THE HIER SIDE FOR MIN-T DUE TO THE CONTD MIXING OVNGT.

FAST ZONAL FLOW WL DOMINATE TUE-TUE NGT AS CYCLONE SITS N OF THE
GRTLKS. WL BE KEEPING FCST DRY THO THERE WL BE PDS OF CLDS AT TIMES
AS WELL AS 20 KT BREEZES. TEMP FCST LEANED MORE ON A MOS BLEND FOR
THE MAXT AND MORE ON ENS BLEND FOR MIN-T.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED WITH THE EXTENDED...A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DOMINATE THE WX PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. ONLY CHANGE IS WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
WED...GUIDANCE IS NOW SUGGESTING THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
DURING THE DAY WED. WITHOUT A DECENT MOISTURE CONNECTION...
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE.

IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED...AS A RESULT OF PERSISTENT WLY WINDS FROM THE LOW TO OUR
NORTH/NORTHEAST. STILL A CHANCE FOR SOME FROST FRI AND SAT IN
WESTERN MD ALONG MASON-DIXON. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES AREA SAT...
BUT NOT ALL GUIDANCE BRINGS QPF OVER OUR CWA. WENT WITH HPC
GUIDANCE FOR NOW...UNTIL GUIDANCE COMES INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

VFR GIVES WAY TO MVFR THEN IFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SPREADS
ACROSS THE TERMINALS AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. ELY FLOW 15 KT GUST UP
TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON BECOMES SELY TONIGHT WITH RAIN ONSET. GUSTY
SHOWER THREAT MAINLY I-95 AND EAST LATE TONIGHT.

LULL IN RAIN/INCREASING CONDS MONDAY MORNING AS RAIN TAPERS OFF BY
MID MORNING. COLD FRONT CROSSES TERMINALS MONDAY EVENING WITH LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING POTENTIALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

SHRA/TSRA WL BE EXITING THE BALT-DC TERMINALS DURING THE ELY EVNG.
SGFNT FLGT RESTRICTIONS WUD BE LIMITED IN SCOPE DEPENDING ON
EVOLUTION OF STORMS. UNCERTAINTIES REVOLVE AROUND TIMING AND
COVERAGE.  MVFR CONDS MAY LINGER A CPL HRS THEREAFTR.

TUE...PRIMARILY VFR. WLY WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20-25 KT. SUB-VFR
POSSIBLE BEGINNING WED IN VICINITY OF SHOWERS. VFR RETURNS THU.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA ALL WATERS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. ELY FLOW 15 KT GUST 25 KT
THIS AFTERNOON SHIFTS SELY TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS OVER THE
AREA. WARM FRONT WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY SHOWERS CROSSES THE
WATERS TONIGHT. SMWS OR GALE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT AS STRONG WIND
FIELD CROSSES.

MONDAY...SWLY 15 TO 20 KT FLOW DEVELOPS AFTER A MID MORNING LULL.
DECIDED TO MAINTAIN SCA. POTENTIALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH
MONDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

NWLY FLOW BEGINS IN WAKE OF CDFNT TOMORROW NGT. SCA WINDS AVBL IN NW
FLOW BUT MIXING BECOME A BIT MORE OF A CONCERN. WL CONT SCA FOR ALL
WATERS THRU THE EVNG...AND THEN XTND THE MD BAY AND LWR PTMC RIVER
THRU THE REST OF THE NGT. SOLID SCA CONDS LKLY WL CONT AREAWIDE INTO
TUE. NEAR GLW WINDS DO EXIST AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LYR...BUT AM
HAVING DOUBTS AS TO WHETHER FULL MIXING CAN BE REALIZED.

SCA POSSIBLE WED AHEAD OF FRONTAL PASSAGE AND AGAIN THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ELY FLOW 15 TO 20 KT JUST STARTING TO CAUSE WATER LEVEL RISES
THIS AFTERNOON. FLOW BECOMES SELY TONIGHT. WATER LEVELS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE BAY TONIGHT. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE BY THE HIGH TIDES MONDAY MORNING. FLOW BECOMES SWLY
MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SO THE COASTAL FLOOD THREAT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PAST MONDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AUDIO DEGRADATION AT THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO CHARLOTTESVILLE
TRANSMITTER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
TECHNICIANS ARE SCHEDULED TO PERFORM MAINTENANCE AT THE
TRANSMITTER SITE MONDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR DCZ001.
MD...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR MDZ004>006-011-013-014-503>508.
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ025-026-029-036>040-
     503-504-507-508.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR VAZ052>054-505-506.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ027-028-030-031-050-
     051-055-056-501-502.
WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ505-506.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR WVZ053.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ050-055.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...BAJ
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...HTS/BAJ/MSE
MARINE...HTS/BAJ/MSE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BAJ
EQUIPMENT...HTS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 191745
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
145 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE ORGANIZING OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL
AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT THEN CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HI PRES CONTS TO MOVE E OF NEW ENG THROUGH THIS AFTN...AS LO
PRES DEVELOPS INVOF LWR/MID MS VLY. WNDS WILL BE GRADUALLY
BECOMING MORE E THROUGH REST OF THE DAY...GUSTY TO 20-25 MPH.
CLDS BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO THE FA FM THE WSW...AND CIGS WILL
BE LWRG THROUGH LT AFTN/EARLY EVE. PATCHY -RA BEGINNING TO ARRIVE
INVOF FAR SSW LOCATIONS (IN SCNTRL VA/INTERIOR NE NC)...AND THAT
TREND WILL BE INCRSG (FM SW-NE). NUDGED CLD COVER AND POPS UP BY
ABT 10-20% OVR MUCH OF THE FA...W/ RA HOLDING OFF FM BAY TO THE
ERN SHORE UNTIL AFT 21Z/19. MOST HI TEMPS WILL BE REACHED BEFORE
RA ARRIVES...RANGING FM 65 TO 70F...U50S-L60S RIGHT ALG THE
IMMEDIATE CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
AS A WARM FRONT MAKES PROGRESS NE THROUGH THE FA. MAY BE PERIODS
OF MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLD (ELEVATED)
THUNDER. MAJORITY OF THE RAIN SHIFTS TO THE COAST BY 12Z
MONDAY...SO WILL SHOW LOWERING POPS FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT. RAIN MAY BE ALL OVER IN OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES BY
DAYBREAK. TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS THRU TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
0.75"-1.50" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 2.00". DESPITE THE
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...PCPN AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN BELOW
6-12HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE SO A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOT NECESSARY.
LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

THE AREA OF RAIN WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST MON MORN...THEN CONCERN
SHIFTS TO A TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY LATE MON
AFTN/EVE (LIKELY LEADING TO SCT SHWRS/TSTMS). SPC CURRENTLY HAS
THE AREA OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MON AFTN/EVE FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX IS CERTAINLY THERE GIVEN ML CAPE VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE...STEEP LAPSE
RATES...AND A MODEST SHEAR PROFILE. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
POSSIBLE STRONG/ISOLD SVR STORMS IN THE HWO FOR LATE MON AFTN/EVE.
OTW...VRB CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON. HIGH TEMPS IN
THE 70S AT THE CST...80 TO 85 ELSEWHERE.

COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FA MON NIGHT WITH CHC POPS (HIGHEST NNE-
CNTRL)...THEN DRYING/COOLER WESTERLY FLOW TAKING OVR INTO TUE.
PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY TUE WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO NR 70 AT
THE COAST...AND LOW/MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW REMAINS IN VIC OF THE GREAT LAKES THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD
THANKS TO BLOCKY FLOW OVER THE HIGHER LATITUDES. FAST WLY/ZONAL FLOW
PROGGED OVER THE LOCAL AREA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SE
STATES/SRN MID ATLANTIC TUES NIGHT-WEDS MORNING...SLIDING OFFSHORE
WEDS AFTERNOON. THE RESULT IS A MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WEDS WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...UPPER 60S TO 70 INLAND AND MID-
UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
STACKED UPPER LOW INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE WEDS-WEDS NIGHT.
ASSOCIATED FAST MOVING COLD FRONT REACHED THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS
WEDS NIGHT...CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THURS. FRONT EXPECTED TO
STALL VIC NC THURS NIGHT DUE TO WLY FLOW ALOFT. QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH MOISTURE RETURN THERE IS THURS AS ECMWF REMAINS DRY AND THE GFS
RATHER MOIST. DIFFERENCE IS LOW LEVEL SWLY FLOW IN GFS COMPARED TO
WLY FLOW IN THE ECMWF. TRENDED TOWARD DRIER ECMWF...DROPPING POPS TO
SILENT THURS-THURS NIGHT. HIGHS THURS REMAINING AROUND
NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE OH VALLEY THURS NIGHT-FRI...EXTENDING INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS...NWLY
WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FRI...GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S
INLAND TO UPPER 50S-LOW 60S COASTAL AREAS. MODELS PICKING UP ON A
SRN STREAM SYSTEM CROSSING THE SE STATES SAT. MENTIONED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SRN VA/NE NC...CLOSEST TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BEST
MOISTURE RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS
RESULTING IN ENE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS NEAR
THE COAST WILL INCREASE TO 15-20KT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MVFR AND
IFR CONDITIONS SPREADING RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. IFR
CEILINGS AND OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES. EXPECT SEVERAL HOURS OF
IFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION FROM AROUND 00-03Z
THROUGH AT LEAST 12-15Z. WIDESPREAD RAIN WHICH IS ALREADY MOVING
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VA WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST AND WILL NOT DIMINISH
FROM SW- NE UNTIL 09Z TO 12Z MONDAY. ANOTHER IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING A CHC OF SHRA/TSRA.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY
CONDITIONS TO RETURN. A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PRESENTLY ENTERING THE NRN OCEAN ZONES WILL
DROP N-S ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL PRODUCE A
WIND SHIFT TO NE. SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10-
15KT...ALTHOUGH SPEEDS COULD BRIEFLY REACH 20KT IN THE IMMEDIATE
WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH SECONDARY
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT. THIS IS A
FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR A SHORT DURATION (~3-5 HR)OF STRONG SCA
CONDITIONS IN SE FLOW. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS TO BE CENTERED
AROUND 09Z TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
15-20KT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE INCREASING TO 20-25KT
WITH GUSTS ~30KT LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. SEAS BUILD TO
4-5FT TODAY...AND THEN 5-7FT TONIGHT...BEFORE BEGINNING TO
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE MONDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. INHERITED SCAS REMAIN SIMILAR. THE MAIN
CHANGES WERE TO ADD THE UPPER JAMES...AND EXTEND THE
BAY/SOUND/RIVERS SEGMENTS THROUGH 10AM MONDAY. ADDITIONALLY...THE
NRN OCEAN ZONES (N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND) WERE EXTENDED THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WHERE SEAS WILL REMAIN 4-5FT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE W MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND MOVES ACROSS THE COAST
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER
SHOWERS/TSTMS...WHICH WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING STRONG
WIND GUSTS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW TODAY FOLLOWED BY MODEST SE FLOW TONIGHT
WILL ALLOW TIDAL ANOMALIES TO BUILD TO ~1.0FT ABOVE NORMAL LATER
TONIGHT PRIMARILY IN THE MIDDLE BAY AND ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
OF THE MD ERN SHORE. SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING
WILL HELP MAINTAIN ~1.0FT ANOMALIES IN THE MIDDLE BAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY AS
THE FLOW SHIFTS TO OFFSHORE. THE COMBINATION OF TIDAL ANOMALIES
AND HIGH ASTRO TIDES (NEW MOON PHASE) WILL PUSH MOST SITES OVER
HAT DURING HIGH TIDE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. PORTIONS OF THE
MIDDLE BAY AND OCEAN CITY WILL APPROACH MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM
NEAR TERM...ALB/JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ/JAO
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 191745
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
145 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE ORGANIZING OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL
AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT THEN CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HI PRES CONTS TO MOVE E OF NEW ENG THROUGH THIS AFTN...AS LO
PRES DEVELOPS INVOF LWR/MID MS VLY. WNDS WILL BE GRADUALLY
BECOMING MORE E THROUGH REST OF THE DAY...GUSTY TO 20-25 MPH.
CLDS BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO THE FA FM THE WSW...AND CIGS WILL
BE LWRG THROUGH LT AFTN/EARLY EVE. PATCHY -RA BEGINNING TO ARRIVE
INVOF FAR SSW LOCATIONS (IN SCNTRL VA/INTERIOR NE NC)...AND THAT
TREND WILL BE INCRSG (FM SW-NE). NUDGED CLD COVER AND POPS UP BY
ABT 10-20% OVR MUCH OF THE FA...W/ RA HOLDING OFF FM BAY TO THE
ERN SHORE UNTIL AFT 21Z/19. MOST HI TEMPS WILL BE REACHED BEFORE
RA ARRIVES...RANGING FM 65 TO 70F...U50S-L60S RIGHT ALG THE
IMMEDIATE CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
AS A WARM FRONT MAKES PROGRESS NE THROUGH THE FA. MAY BE PERIODS
OF MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLD (ELEVATED)
THUNDER. MAJORITY OF THE RAIN SHIFTS TO THE COAST BY 12Z
MONDAY...SO WILL SHOW LOWERING POPS FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT. RAIN MAY BE ALL OVER IN OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES BY
DAYBREAK. TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS THRU TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
0.75"-1.50" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 2.00". DESPITE THE
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...PCPN AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN BELOW
6-12HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE SO A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOT NECESSARY.
LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

THE AREA OF RAIN WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST MON MORN...THEN CONCERN
SHIFTS TO A TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY LATE MON
AFTN/EVE (LIKELY LEADING TO SCT SHWRS/TSTMS). SPC CURRENTLY HAS
THE AREA OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MON AFTN/EVE FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX IS CERTAINLY THERE GIVEN ML CAPE VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE...STEEP LAPSE
RATES...AND A MODEST SHEAR PROFILE. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
POSSIBLE STRONG/ISOLD SVR STORMS IN THE HWO FOR LATE MON AFTN/EVE.
OTW...VRB CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON. HIGH TEMPS IN
THE 70S AT THE CST...80 TO 85 ELSEWHERE.

COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FA MON NIGHT WITH CHC POPS (HIGHEST NNE-
CNTRL)...THEN DRYING/COOLER WESTERLY FLOW TAKING OVR INTO TUE.
PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY TUE WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO NR 70 AT
THE COAST...AND LOW/MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW REMAINS IN VIC OF THE GREAT LAKES THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD
THANKS TO BLOCKY FLOW OVER THE HIGHER LATITUDES. FAST WLY/ZONAL FLOW
PROGGED OVER THE LOCAL AREA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SE
STATES/SRN MID ATLANTIC TUES NIGHT-WEDS MORNING...SLIDING OFFSHORE
WEDS AFTERNOON. THE RESULT IS A MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WEDS WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...UPPER 60S TO 70 INLAND AND MID-
UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
STACKED UPPER LOW INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE WEDS-WEDS NIGHT.
ASSOCIATED FAST MOVING COLD FRONT REACHED THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS
WEDS NIGHT...CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THURS. FRONT EXPECTED TO
STALL VIC NC THURS NIGHT DUE TO WLY FLOW ALOFT. QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH MOISTURE RETURN THERE IS THURS AS ECMWF REMAINS DRY AND THE GFS
RATHER MOIST. DIFFERENCE IS LOW LEVEL SWLY FLOW IN GFS COMPARED TO
WLY FLOW IN THE ECMWF. TRENDED TOWARD DRIER ECMWF...DROPPING POPS TO
SILENT THURS-THURS NIGHT. HIGHS THURS REMAINING AROUND
NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE OH VALLEY THURS NIGHT-FRI...EXTENDING INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS...NWLY
WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FRI...GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S
INLAND TO UPPER 50S-LOW 60S COASTAL AREAS. MODELS PICKING UP ON A
SRN STREAM SYSTEM CROSSING THE SE STATES SAT. MENTIONED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SRN VA/NE NC...CLOSEST TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BEST
MOISTURE RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS
RESULTING IN ENE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS NEAR
THE COAST WILL INCREASE TO 15-20KT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MVFR AND
IFR CONDITIONS SPREADING RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. IFR
CEILINGS AND OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES. EXPECT SEVERAL HOURS OF
IFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION FROM AROUND 00-03Z
THROUGH AT LEAST 12-15Z. WIDESPREAD RAIN WHICH IS ALREADY MOVING
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VA WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST AND WILL NOT DIMINISH
FROM SW- NE UNTIL 09Z TO 12Z MONDAY. ANOTHER IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING A CHC OF SHRA/TSRA.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY
CONDITIONS TO RETURN. A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PRESENTLY ENTERING THE NRN OCEAN ZONES WILL
DROP N-S ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL PRODUCE A
WIND SHIFT TO NE. SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10-
15KT...ALTHOUGH SPEEDS COULD BRIEFLY REACH 20KT IN THE IMMEDIATE
WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH SECONDARY
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT. THIS IS A
FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR A SHORT DURATION (~3-5 HR)OF STRONG SCA
CONDITIONS IN SE FLOW. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS TO BE CENTERED
AROUND 09Z TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
15-20KT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE INCREASING TO 20-25KT
WITH GUSTS ~30KT LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. SEAS BUILD TO
4-5FT TODAY...AND THEN 5-7FT TONIGHT...BEFORE BEGINNING TO
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE MONDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. INHERITED SCAS REMAIN SIMILAR. THE MAIN
CHANGES WERE TO ADD THE UPPER JAMES...AND EXTEND THE
BAY/SOUND/RIVERS SEGMENTS THROUGH 10AM MONDAY. ADDITIONALLY...THE
NRN OCEAN ZONES (N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND) WERE EXTENDED THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WHERE SEAS WILL REMAIN 4-5FT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE W MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND MOVES ACROSS THE COAST
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER
SHOWERS/TSTMS...WHICH WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING STRONG
WIND GUSTS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW TODAY FOLLOWED BY MODEST SE FLOW TONIGHT
WILL ALLOW TIDAL ANOMALIES TO BUILD TO ~1.0FT ABOVE NORMAL LATER
TONIGHT PRIMARILY IN THE MIDDLE BAY AND ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
OF THE MD ERN SHORE. SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING
WILL HELP MAINTAIN ~1.0FT ANOMALIES IN THE MIDDLE BAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY AS
THE FLOW SHIFTS TO OFFSHORE. THE COMBINATION OF TIDAL ANOMALIES
AND HIGH ASTRO TIDES (NEW MOON PHASE) WILL PUSH MOST SITES OVER
HAT DURING HIGH TIDE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. PORTIONS OF THE
MIDDLE BAY AND OCEAN CITY WILL APPROACH MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM
NEAR TERM...ALB/JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ/JAO
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KLWX 191530
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1130 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL TRACK EAST TO MAINE TODAY.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID-SOUTH STATES WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TO THE
OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...BRINGING A WARM FRONT
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA LATE MONDAY. AN UPPER LOW BRINGS COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATE
PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EXPANDED FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE GREATER BALTIMORE-WASHINGTON METRO
(NOT SRN MD WHERE FLOOD GUIDANCE IS HIGHER)...THE REST OF THE
SHENANDOAH VALLEY...AND MORE OF N-CNTRL VA AND THE ALLEGHENY
HIGHLANDS. THREE START TIMES...CONTINUED 2PM FOR SWRN ZONES...5PM
FOR CENTRAL...AND 7PM FOR BALT-WASH. 1.5 INCHES IS NEAR OR
EXCEEDING THE 6HR FLOOD GUIDANCE. WILL BUMP UP QPF A BIT BASED ON
LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE. 2 INCHES STILL GENERALLY CONTAINED TO THE
EAST SIDE OF CNTRL VA BLUE RIDGE.

PREVIOUS...
AS OF 14Z...1029MB SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER WRN QUEBEC WITH A SFC
RIDGE ARCING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. 1002MB SFC
LOW IS OVER THE MID-SOUTH AND WILL DEVELOP AS IT LIFTS NORTH TO
SRN MICHIGAN THIS EVENING.

GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL LIFT FROM THE SERN STATES
THIS MORNING TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND ERN OHIO VALLEY THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS MOISTURE WILL OVERRUN THE RATHER DRY AIRMASS
CURRENTLY BEING REINFORCED BY ELY FLOW OF 15 TO 20 MPH. RAIN IS
DRIFTING NORTH TO CENTRAL VA AND WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS NORTH...
REACHING DC BY 6PM OR SO. INTENSITY WILL INCREASE TO HEAVY WITHIN
A COUPLE HOURS OF ONSET...ACROSS THE AREA.

AS THE LOW DEEPENS INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AND A MESOLOW DEVELOPS
AND LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA (ROUGHLY ALONG THE PIEDMONT) A
STRONG SE LLVL JET WILL DEVELOP BY THIS EVENING...TRANSPORTING
COPIOUS MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. PWATS WILL CLIMB TO NEAR MAXIMUM
CLIMO VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (UPWARDS OF 1.5 INCHES) AND
WARM CLOUD DEPTHS ARE FORECAST TO AOA 3 KM...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. COMBINED WITH THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT...EXPECT
HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS APPROACHING 2 INCHES TO BE FOCUSED NEAR THE
CENTRAL BLUE RIDGE. WILL BE RAISING A FLOOD WATCH IN THIS AREA AS
6 HR FFG IS AROUND 1.5 INCHES IN SPOTS. HOWEVER THE ENTIRE AREA
WILL GET A GOOD SOAKING RAIN AS THE WARM FRONTAL BAND LIFTS
THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH MANY SPOTS TOPPING AN INCH. WILL ALLOW THE
DAYSHIFT TO ASSESS THE NEED TO EXPAND THE WATCH...WITH THE MOST
LIKELY CANDIDATES BEING INTO THE URBAN AREAS. HOWEVER...WOULD
EXPECT PONDING OF WATER WOULD BE THE MAIN CONCERN.

INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY LIMIT TEMPS TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.
TEMPS HOLD STEADY OR PERHAPS RISE A LITTLE IN EASTERN AREAS TONIGHT
WITH THE RAIN. LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER THE WARM FRONTAL BAND PASSES EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THERE MAY
BE A FAIRLY PROLONGED BREAK INTO THE MIDDAY HOURS AS THE AREA
BECOMES WARM SECTORED...AND THERE MAY BE A CAP IN PLACE AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 70S...AND FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
60S DEW POINTS ESPECIALLY EAST OF BLUE RIDGE. DECENT PROBS OF
MUCAPE GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AOA 30 KT. HI-
RES GUIDANCE SUGGEST STORMS FIRST FIRE ALONG THE MOUNTAINS NEAR A
PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT
TO THE WEST. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED MOST OF THE AREA FOR A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS. UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR
LINEAR FEATURES. GIVEN SOME MID LEVEL DRYING AND STEEP LLVL LAPSE
RATES...THINK DMG WINDS WILL BE MORE LIKELY THAN LARGE HAIL.

COLD FRONT SWEEPS OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO ANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TO EAST...LIKELY BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE A FEW SHOWERS LINGER NEAR THE BAY INTO THE
WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...BREEZY AND DRIER
OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

PRESSURE SURGE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT COULD BRING DOWN STRONG GUSTY
WINDS NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS ESPECIALLY OVER THE RIDGELINES MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE AND DEEP UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DIVE OUT OF
CANADA AND SET UP SHOP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS FOR MUCH OF
THE MIDDLE AND LATER PART OF THE WEEK. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE MAY BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED SO KEPT POPS AT CHANCE FOR NOW. SEEMS LIKE A SCATTERED
SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DAY ENHANCED OVER TERRAIN
AREAS...MORE ISOLATED FURTHER EAST.

BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL COME A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 50S THURSDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY WITH ELY WINDS GUSTING
AROUND 20 KT. RAIN WILL SPREAD S TO N THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH FLIGHT CONDITIONS DETERIORATING FIRST AT CHO. AS
THE RAIN SPREADS THROUGH TONIGHT...MDT TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE. THUNDER CHANCES LOOK BEST SOUTHEAST OF DC LATE TONIGHT. IFR
OR LOWER CIGS AND IFR VSBYS ARE LIKELY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
MONDAY MORNING AS THE RAIN EXITS A