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000
FXUS61 KRNK 040058
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
858 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING BEFORE
WEAKENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
LATE TONIGHT. THIS FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY BEFORE
STALLING OVER THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 857 PM EDT MONDAY...

FOCUS FOR THE NEAR TERM FORECAST IS ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER ACROSS NE KY/SW OH THIS EVENING. THERE ARE
SEVERAL FACTORS THAT SUGGEST THIS CLUSTER WILL WEAKEN BY THE TIME
IT REACHES OUR FORECAST AREA. FIRST...THIS CLUSTER IS MOVING INTO
A REGION OF LOWER THETA-E AIR. SECOND...IT IS MOVING INTO A REGION
OF WEAKER LOW LEVEL INFLOW/WINDS. FINALLY...AS WE LOSE THE HEATING
FROM THE SUN...INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. ALL OF THESE
FACTORS LEAD US TO LEAN TOWARD MANY OF MESOSCALE MODEL SOLUTIONS
OF WEAKENING THIS CLUSTER AS IT ENTERS OUR SE WV COUNTIES AFTER
03Z/11 PM EDT. STORMS MAY PROPOGATE SOUTH INTO RICHER THETA-E
AIR/HIGHER INSTABILITY AXIS IN ERN KY. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP CHC
POPS IN OUR NW COUNTIES AFTER 03Z.

WITH DEBRIS CLOUDINESS MOVING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN THE WEST...PUSHED UP TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO.

AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA TUESDAY
EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS
APPEAR MORE BULLISH ON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER
DYNAMICS BUT INSTABILITY IS LIMITED SO SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
MARGINAL AT BEST AND CONFINED TO EASTERN SECTIONS AS PER THE
CURRENT SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY
AND WAIT TO SEE HOW THE SITUATION UNFOLDS TONIGHT TO MAKE ANY
NECESSARY ADJUSTMENTS.

HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE AIDED BY WARM AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING
DOWNSLOPE WINDS...SO HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 90S EAST
TO MID/UPPER 80S WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT MONDAY...

COLD FRONT WILL HAVE JUMPED INTO THE PIEDMONT LEE TROUGH BY EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE PUSHING EAST ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN
FROM THE NW THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH STRONG DOWNSLOPING IN PLACE...POPS
APPEAR QUITE IFFY TUESDAY EVENING EXCEPT PERHAPS OVER THE FAR WEST
WHERE CLOSER TO A DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS TO THE WEST...AND ALONG THE
EASTERN PERIMETER GIVEN WEAKER DOWNSLOPE ESPCLY WHEN MIXING WEAKENS.
HOWEVER INSTABILITY NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE SO RUNNING WITH ONLY ISOLATED
EVENING POPS IN THESE SPOTS BEFORE DRY ADVECTION WINS OUT OVERNIGHT.
AREA WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN FEATURES AND UNDER A BUBBLE HIGH WEDNESDAY
AIDED BY WEST/NW FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN AND LOWER PWATS. MOST GUIDANCE
INCLUDING THE LATEST ENSEMBLES HAVE LITTLE PRECIP UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE
WEDNESDAY SO TRIMMED BACK TO ONLY ISOLATED POPS ACROSS THE SW AND FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY DON`T APPEAR
QUITE AS HOT AS EARLIER GIVEN DECENT 85H COOLING DESPITE DOWNSLOPE
ALOFT AND MORE SUN. STILL THINK SOME LOW/MID 90S LIKELY EAST AND 80S
WEST.

MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN INITIAL WAVE
HEADS EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND BEGINS TO LIFT THE FRONT BACK
NORTH WITH WEAK OVERRUNNING IN PLACE. GUIDANCE REMAINS SLOW TO MOISTEN
THINGS UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST FLUX OF DEEP MOISTURE NOT
RETURNING UNTIL THURSDAY PER THE LATEST GFS/EURO. SINCE APPEARS BEST
MOISTURE/LIFT WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE FAR WEST/NORTH WITH THE
FRONT...WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SLIGHTS
OUT EAST.

PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS IN WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MODELS SHOWING DECENT INSTABILITY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS WELL AS LIFT WITH THE SURFACE WAVE THURSDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN EXACTLY WHERE THE CORE OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL TRACK WITH SOME SOLUTIONS FARTHER WEST WHICH WOULD
LIMIT FOCUS UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT AFTER LOSS OF HEATING. THEREFORE
KEEPING LIKELY POPS CONFINED TO THE WEST AND CHANCE OUT EAST FOR
NOW. LEFT TEMPS CLOSER TO A MORE BLENDED SOLUTION PENDING DEGREE
OF SHOWER COVERAGE WHICH COULD MAKE THINGS COOLER THAN THE 80S TO
AROUND 90 SE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT MONDAY...

STRONG SHORTWAVE FOR EARLY AUGUST WILL PASS ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE
REGION TO START THE PERIOD ALLOWING A TRAILING COLD FRONT TO SLIDE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS BY LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER DIGGING 5H TROUGH THAT WILL BRING THE ONSET OF
THE NEXT ROUND OF SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
HOWEVER NEW GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FLIP FLOP AS SOME SOLUTIONS NOW NOT
AS DEEP OR PROLONGED WITH THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH IN HAVING A PASSING
5H COOL POOL EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BEFORE RETURNING TO MORE ZONAL FLOW
AND SOME RETURN IN MOISTURE BY DAY7. THIS AHEAD OF ADDED UPSTREAM
CLIPPER TYPE ENERGY THAT SHOULD GIVE THE INITIAL SYSTEM A BIT OF A
BOOT TO START. THIS COULD ALSO KEEP MORE CLOUDS AROUND AT TIMES DESPITE
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IN PLACE...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
SW SUNDAY AND MAINLY OVER THE WEST MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE.

THUS AFTER HIGHER CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS ESPCLY NORTH/WEST WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY...WILL HANG ONTO SOME ISOLATED TO LOW CHANCE
POPS SATURDAY AND OVER THE FAR SW SUNDAY DESPITE THE SURFACE FRONT WELL
TO THE SOUTH. OTRW THINKING THAT MUCH OF THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY WILL
REMAIN DRY PENDING LATER TRENDS WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION FROM LATE IN THE WEEK. TEMPS TO COOL BACK TO JUST
BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS BUT NOT QUITE AS COOL AS SEEN YESTERDAY FOR
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM EDT MONDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE NWS BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA
AT 23Z/7 PM EDT AS OUR REGION IS CURRENTLY SANDWICHED BETWEEN
SYSTEMS. A COLD FRONT WAS NOTED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH A WEAK
WARM FRONT NOTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST VA/EASTERN NC.

THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY IN THE MESO MODELS AS TO WHEN SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS OHIO/N KY WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST.
AMONG THE MESO MODELS...THE HRRR IS HANDLING THIS COMPLEX OF STORM
THE BEST AND SHOWS DECAYING PRECIP ARRIVING AFTER 03Z. AS THIS
CLUSTER OF STORMS APPROACHES...IT WILL BE ENCOUNTERING DRIER AIR
AND WEAKENING INFLOW WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN THIS ACTIVITY
DIMINISHING...BUT WILL BRING POTENTIALLY MVFR CIGS TO THE
MOUNTAIN TAF SITES AFTER 05Z/01 AM EDT.

THE ANTICIPATED CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION WILL COMPLICATE THE FOG
FORECAST TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FOG TONIGHT...MAY BE IN THE
FAR EAST WHERE BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST.
CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
BUT THE EXACT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL PLAY A BIG
ROLE IN FOG POTENTIAL. CURRENTLY FEEL CONDITIONS WILL NOT FAVOR
FOG AND WILL CONTINUE TO OMIT FOG FROM TAFS THIS PACKAGE.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW
AND EXPECT SOME SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD....THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING AND
LOCATION...BUT SIGNALS IN THE MODELS SUGGEST BEST CHANCE FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AND AS A RESULT...ADDED VCTS TO KDAN.

EXPECT WINDS TO BE WESTERLY WITH SOME LOW LEVEL GUSTS POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY TOMORROW AS WINDS BECOME MORE NWLY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC BY LATE WEEK WHICH COULD
BRING A BIT MORE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. THE THREAT OF SUB- VFR REMAINS LOW UNTIL
THURSDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL FOG POTENTIAL AT KLWB/KBCB EACH
MORNING BETWEEN 09-13Z.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...MBS/PH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...MBS/PH




000
FXUS61 KRNK 040058
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
858 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING BEFORE
WEAKENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
LATE TONIGHT. THIS FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY BEFORE
STALLING OVER THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 857 PM EDT MONDAY...

FOCUS FOR THE NEAR TERM FORECAST IS ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER ACROSS NE KY/SW OH THIS EVENING. THERE ARE
SEVERAL FACTORS THAT SUGGEST THIS CLUSTER WILL WEAKEN BY THE TIME
IT REACHES OUR FORECAST AREA. FIRST...THIS CLUSTER IS MOVING INTO
A REGION OF LOWER THETA-E AIR. SECOND...IT IS MOVING INTO A REGION
OF WEAKER LOW LEVEL INFLOW/WINDS. FINALLY...AS WE LOSE THE HEATING
FROM THE SUN...INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. ALL OF THESE
FACTORS LEAD US TO LEAN TOWARD MANY OF MESOSCALE MODEL SOLUTIONS
OF WEAKENING THIS CLUSTER AS IT ENTERS OUR SE WV COUNTIES AFTER
03Z/11 PM EDT. STORMS MAY PROPOGATE SOUTH INTO RICHER THETA-E
AIR/HIGHER INSTABILITY AXIS IN ERN KY. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP CHC
POPS IN OUR NW COUNTIES AFTER 03Z.

WITH DEBRIS CLOUDINESS MOVING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN THE WEST...PUSHED UP TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO.

AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA TUESDAY
EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS
APPEAR MORE BULLISH ON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER
DYNAMICS BUT INSTABILITY IS LIMITED SO SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
MARGINAL AT BEST AND CONFINED TO EASTERN SECTIONS AS PER THE
CURRENT SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY
AND WAIT TO SEE HOW THE SITUATION UNFOLDS TONIGHT TO MAKE ANY
NECESSARY ADJUSTMENTS.

HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE AIDED BY WARM AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING
DOWNSLOPE WINDS...SO HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 90S EAST
TO MID/UPPER 80S WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT MONDAY...

COLD FRONT WILL HAVE JUMPED INTO THE PIEDMONT LEE TROUGH BY EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE PUSHING EAST ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN
FROM THE NW THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH STRONG DOWNSLOPING IN PLACE...POPS
APPEAR QUITE IFFY TUESDAY EVENING EXCEPT PERHAPS OVER THE FAR WEST
WHERE CLOSER TO A DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS TO THE WEST...AND ALONG THE
EASTERN PERIMETER GIVEN WEAKER DOWNSLOPE ESPCLY WHEN MIXING WEAKENS.
HOWEVER INSTABILITY NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE SO RUNNING WITH ONLY ISOLATED
EVENING POPS IN THESE SPOTS BEFORE DRY ADVECTION WINS OUT OVERNIGHT.
AREA WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN FEATURES AND UNDER A BUBBLE HIGH WEDNESDAY
AIDED BY WEST/NW FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN AND LOWER PWATS. MOST GUIDANCE
INCLUDING THE LATEST ENSEMBLES HAVE LITTLE PRECIP UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE
WEDNESDAY SO TRIMMED BACK TO ONLY ISOLATED POPS ACROSS THE SW AND FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY DON`T APPEAR
QUITE AS HOT AS EARLIER GIVEN DECENT 85H COOLING DESPITE DOWNSLOPE
ALOFT AND MORE SUN. STILL THINK SOME LOW/MID 90S LIKELY EAST AND 80S
WEST.

MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN INITIAL WAVE
HEADS EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND BEGINS TO LIFT THE FRONT BACK
NORTH WITH WEAK OVERRUNNING IN PLACE. GUIDANCE REMAINS SLOW TO MOISTEN
THINGS UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST FLUX OF DEEP MOISTURE NOT
RETURNING UNTIL THURSDAY PER THE LATEST GFS/EURO. SINCE APPEARS BEST
MOISTURE/LIFT WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE FAR WEST/NORTH WITH THE
FRONT...WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SLIGHTS
OUT EAST.

PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS IN WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MODELS SHOWING DECENT INSTABILITY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS WELL AS LIFT WITH THE SURFACE WAVE THURSDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN EXACTLY WHERE THE CORE OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL TRACK WITH SOME SOLUTIONS FARTHER WEST WHICH WOULD
LIMIT FOCUS UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT AFTER LOSS OF HEATING. THEREFORE
KEEPING LIKELY POPS CONFINED TO THE WEST AND CHANCE OUT EAST FOR
NOW. LEFT TEMPS CLOSER TO A MORE BLENDED SOLUTION PENDING DEGREE
OF SHOWER COVERAGE WHICH COULD MAKE THINGS COOLER THAN THE 80S TO
AROUND 90 SE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT MONDAY...

STRONG SHORTWAVE FOR EARLY AUGUST WILL PASS ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE
REGION TO START THE PERIOD ALLOWING A TRAILING COLD FRONT TO SLIDE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS BY LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER DIGGING 5H TROUGH THAT WILL BRING THE ONSET OF
THE NEXT ROUND OF SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
HOWEVER NEW GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FLIP FLOP AS SOME SOLUTIONS NOW NOT
AS DEEP OR PROLONGED WITH THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH IN HAVING A PASSING
5H COOL POOL EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BEFORE RETURNING TO MORE ZONAL FLOW
AND SOME RETURN IN MOISTURE BY DAY7. THIS AHEAD OF ADDED UPSTREAM
CLIPPER TYPE ENERGY THAT SHOULD GIVE THE INITIAL SYSTEM A BIT OF A
BOOT TO START. THIS COULD ALSO KEEP MORE CLOUDS AROUND AT TIMES DESPITE
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IN PLACE...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
SW SUNDAY AND MAINLY OVER THE WEST MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE.

THUS AFTER HIGHER CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS ESPCLY NORTH/WEST WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY...WILL HANG ONTO SOME ISOLATED TO LOW CHANCE
POPS SATURDAY AND OVER THE FAR SW SUNDAY DESPITE THE SURFACE FRONT WELL
TO THE SOUTH. OTRW THINKING THAT MUCH OF THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY WILL
REMAIN DRY PENDING LATER TRENDS WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION FROM LATE IN THE WEEK. TEMPS TO COOL BACK TO JUST
BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS BUT NOT QUITE AS COOL AS SEEN YESTERDAY FOR
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM EDT MONDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE NWS BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA
AT 23Z/7 PM EDT AS OUR REGION IS CURRENTLY SANDWICHED BETWEEN
SYSTEMS. A COLD FRONT WAS NOTED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH A WEAK
WARM FRONT NOTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST VA/EASTERN NC.

THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY IN THE MESO MODELS AS TO WHEN SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS OHIO/N KY WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST.
AMONG THE MESO MODELS...THE HRRR IS HANDLING THIS COMPLEX OF STORM
THE BEST AND SHOWS DECAYING PRECIP ARRIVING AFTER 03Z. AS THIS
CLUSTER OF STORMS APPROACHES...IT WILL BE ENCOUNTERING DRIER AIR
AND WEAKENING INFLOW WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN THIS ACTIVITY
DIMINISHING...BUT WILL BRING POTENTIALLY MVFR CIGS TO THE
MOUNTAIN TAF SITES AFTER 05Z/01 AM EDT.

THE ANTICIPATED CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION WILL COMPLICATE THE FOG
FORECAST TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FOG TONIGHT...MAY BE IN THE
FAR EAST WHERE BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST.
CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
BUT THE EXACT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL PLAY A BIG
ROLE IN FOG POTENTIAL. CURRENTLY FEEL CONDITIONS WILL NOT FAVOR
FOG AND WILL CONTINUE TO OMIT FOG FROM TAFS THIS PACKAGE.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW
AND EXPECT SOME SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD....THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING AND
LOCATION...BUT SIGNALS IN THE MODELS SUGGEST BEST CHANCE FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AND AS A RESULT...ADDED VCTS TO KDAN.

EXPECT WINDS TO BE WESTERLY WITH SOME LOW LEVEL GUSTS POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY TOMORROW AS WINDS BECOME MORE NWLY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC BY LATE WEEK WHICH COULD
BRING A BIT MORE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. THE THREAT OF SUB- VFR REMAINS LOW UNTIL
THURSDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL FOG POTENTIAL AT KLWB/KBCB EACH
MORNING BETWEEN 09-13Z.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...MBS/PH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...MBS/PH



000
FXUS61 KRNK 032314
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
714 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING BEFORE
WEAKENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
LATE TONIGHT. THIS FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY BEFORE
STALLING OVER THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...

MCS ACTIVITY THAT DISSIPATED OVER WV BEFORE SUNRISE HAS LEFT A BUBBLE
HIGH ACROSS THE REGION THAT HAS SUPPRESSED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE REGION AND PUSHED STORM DEVELOPMENT OFF TO OUR EAST. THIS SHOULD
YIELD A DRY EVENING BEFORE ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND ARRIVES AT THE WESTERN SLOPES
OF THE APPALACHIANS. THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY IN WHEN THE
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES BUT BELIEVE THE MOST LIKELY TIMING WILL BE NO
EARLIER THAN 06Z AND EXPECT CONVECTION WILL BE ON THE DECLINE WHEN IT
ARRIVES SO DO NOT EXPECT IT TO MAKE MUCH HEADWAY PAST SOUTHEAST WV AND
THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION OF VA.

THE FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW AND EXPECT
THIS TO TRIGGER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS APPEAR MORE BULLISH ON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH
SLIGHTLY BETTER DYNAMICS BUT INSTABILITY IS LIMITED SO SEVERE THREAT
WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST AND CONFINED TO EASTERN SECTIONS AS PER THE
CURRENT SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY AND
WAIT TO SEE HOW THE SITUATION UNFOLDS TONIGHT TO MAKE ANY NECESSARY
ADJUSTMENTS.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT MORE MILD TONIGHT AS CLOUDS AND DEW
POINTS START TO INCREASE. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM UPPER
60S/AROUND 70 EAST TO LOW/MID 60S WEST. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE AIDED BY
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING DOWNSLOPE WINDS...SO HIGHS
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 90S EAST TO MID/UPPER 80S WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT MONDAY...

COLD FRONT WILL HAVE JUMPED INTO THE PIEDMONT LEE TROUGH BY EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE PUSHING EAST ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN
FROM THE NW THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH STRONG DOWNSLOPING IN PLACE...POPS
APPEAR QUITE IFFY TUESDAY EVENING EXCEPT PERHAPS OVER THE FAR WEST
WHERE CLOSER TO A DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS TO THE WEST...AND ALONG THE
EASTERN PERIMETER GIVEN WEAKER DOWNSLOPE ESPCLY WHEN MIXING WEAKENS.
HOWEVER INSTABILITY NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE SO RUNNING WITH ONLY ISOLATED
EVENING POPS IN THESE SPOTS BEFORE DRY ADVECTION WINS OUT OVERNIGHT.
AREA WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN FEATURES AND UNDER A BUBBLE HIGH WEDNESDAY
AIDED BY WEST/NW FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN AND LOWER PWATS. MOST GUIDANCE
INCLUDING THE LATEST ENSEMBLES HAVE LITTLE PRECIP UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE
WEDNESDAY SO TRIMMED BACK TO ONLY ISOLATED POPS ACROSS THE SW AND FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY DON`T APPEAR
QUITE AS HOT AS EARLIER GIVEN DECENT 85H COOLING DESPITE DOWNSLOPE
ALOFT AND MORE SUN. STILL THINK SOME LOW/MID 90S LIKELY EAST AND 80S
WEST.

MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN INITIAL WAVE
HEADS EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND BEGINS TO LIFT THE FRONT BACK
NORTH WITH WEAK OVERRUNNING IN PLACE. GUIDANCE REMAINS SLOW TO MOISTEN
THINGS UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST FLUX OF DEEP MOISTURE NOT
RETURNING UNTIL THURSDAY PER THE LATEST GFS/EURO. SINCE APPEARS BEST
MOISTURE/LIFT WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE FAR WEST/NORTH WITH THE
FRONT...WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SLIGHTS
OUT EAST.

PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS IN WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MODELS SHOWING DECENT INSTABILITY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS WELL AS LIFT WITH THE SURFACE WAVE THURSDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN EXACTLY WHERE THE CORE OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL TRACK WITH SOME SOLUTIONS FARTHER WEST WHICH WOULD
LIMIT FOCUS UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT AFTER LOSS OF HEATING. THEREFORE
KEEPING LIKELY POPS CONFINED TO THE WEST AND CHANCE OUT EAST FOR
NOW. LEFT TEMPS CLOSER TO A MORE BLENDED SOLUTION PENDING DEGREE
OF SHOWER COVERAGE WHICH COULD MAKE THINGS COOLER THAN THE 80S TO
AROUND 90 SE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT MONDAY...

STRONG SHORTWAVE FOR EARLY AUGUST WILL PASS ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE
REGION TO START THE PERIOD ALLOWING A TRAILING COLD FRONT TO SLIDE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS BY LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER DIGGING 5H TROUGH THAT WILL BRING THE ONSET OF
THE NEXT ROUND OF SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
HOWEVER NEW GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FLIP FLOP AS SOME SOLUTIONS NOW NOT
AS DEEP OR PROLONGED WITH THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH IN HAVING A PASSING
5H COOL POOL EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BEFORE RETURNING TO MORE ZONAL FLOW
AND SOME RETURN IN MOISTURE BY DAY7. THIS AHEAD OF ADDED UPSTREAM
CLIPPER TYPE ENERGY THAT SHOULD GIVE THE INITIAL SYSTEM A BIT OF A
BOOT TO START. THIS COULD ALSO KEEP MORE CLOUDS AROUND AT TIMES DESPITE
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IN PLACE...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
SW SUNDAY AND MAINLY OVER THE WEST MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE.

THUS AFTER HIGHER CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS ESPCLY NORTH/WEST WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY...WILL HANG ONTO SOME ISOLATED TO LOW CHANCE
POPS SATURDAY AND OVER THE FAR SW SUNDAY DESPITE THE SURFACE FRONT WELL
TO THE SOUTH. OTRW THINKING THAT MUCH OF THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY WILL
REMAIN DRY PENDING LATER TRENDS WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION FROM LATE IN THE WEEK. TEMPS TO COOL BACK TO JUST
BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS BUT NOT QUITE AS COOL AS SEEN YESTERDAY FOR
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM EDT MONDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE NWS BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA
AT 23Z/7 PM EDT AS OUR REGION IS CURRENTLY SANDWICHED BETWEEN
SYSTEMS. A COLD FRONT WAS NOTED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH A WEAK
WARM FRONT NOTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST VA/EASTERN NC.

THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY IN THE MESO MODELS AS TO WHEN SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS OHIO/N KY WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST.
AMONG THE MESO MODELS...THE HRRR IS HANDLING THIS COMPLEX OF STORM
THE BEST AND SHOWS DECAYING PRECIP ARRIVING AFTER 03Z. AS THIS
CLUSTER OF STORMS APPROACHES...IT WILL BE ENCOUNTERING DRIER AIR
AND WEAKENING INFLOW WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN THIS ACTIVITY
DIMINISHING...BUT WILL BRING POTENTIALLY MVFR CIGS TO THE
MOUNTAIN TAF SITES AFTER 05Z/01 AM EDT.

THE ANTICIPATED CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION WILL COMPLICATE THE FOG
FORECAST TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FOG TONIGHT...MAY BE IN THE
FAR EAST WHERE BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST.
CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
BUT THE EXACT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL PLAY A BIG
ROLE IN FOG POTENTIAL. CURRENTLY FEEL CONDITIONS WILL NOT FAVOR
FOG AND WILL CONTINUE TO OMIT FOG FROM TAFS THIS PACKAGE.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW
AND EXPECT SOME SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD....THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING AND
LOCATION...BUT SIGNALS IN THE MODELS SUGGEST BEST CHANCE FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AND AS A RESULT...ADDED VCTS TO KDAN.

EXPECT WINDS TO BE WESTERLY WITH SOME LOW LEVEL GUSTS POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY TOMORROW AS WINDS BECOME MORE NWLY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC BY LATE WEEK WHICH COULD
BRING A BIT MORE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. THE THREAT OF SUB- VFR REMAINS LOW UNTIL
THURSDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL FOG POTENTIAL AT KLWB/KBCB EACH
MORNING BETWEEN 09-13Z.
&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...MBS/PH




000
FXUS61 KRNK 032314
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
714 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING BEFORE
WEAKENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
LATE TONIGHT. THIS FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY BEFORE
STALLING OVER THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...

MCS ACTIVITY THAT DISSIPATED OVER WV BEFORE SUNRISE HAS LEFT A BUBBLE
HIGH ACROSS THE REGION THAT HAS SUPPRESSED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE REGION AND PUSHED STORM DEVELOPMENT OFF TO OUR EAST. THIS SHOULD
YIELD A DRY EVENING BEFORE ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND ARRIVES AT THE WESTERN SLOPES
OF THE APPALACHIANS. THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY IN WHEN THE
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES BUT BELIEVE THE MOST LIKELY TIMING WILL BE NO
EARLIER THAN 06Z AND EXPECT CONVECTION WILL BE ON THE DECLINE WHEN IT
ARRIVES SO DO NOT EXPECT IT TO MAKE MUCH HEADWAY PAST SOUTHEAST WV AND
THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION OF VA.

THE FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW AND EXPECT
THIS TO TRIGGER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS APPEAR MORE BULLISH ON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH
SLIGHTLY BETTER DYNAMICS BUT INSTABILITY IS LIMITED SO SEVERE THREAT
WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST AND CONFINED TO EASTERN SECTIONS AS PER THE
CURRENT SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY AND
WAIT TO SEE HOW THE SITUATION UNFOLDS TONIGHT TO MAKE ANY NECESSARY
ADJUSTMENTS.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT MORE MILD TONIGHT AS CLOUDS AND DEW
POINTS START TO INCREASE. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM UPPER
60S/AROUND 70 EAST TO LOW/MID 60S WEST. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE AIDED BY
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING DOWNSLOPE WINDS...SO HIGHS
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 90S EAST TO MID/UPPER 80S WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT MONDAY...

COLD FRONT WILL HAVE JUMPED INTO THE PIEDMONT LEE TROUGH BY EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE PUSHING EAST ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN
FROM THE NW THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH STRONG DOWNSLOPING IN PLACE...POPS
APPEAR QUITE IFFY TUESDAY EVENING EXCEPT PERHAPS OVER THE FAR WEST
WHERE CLOSER TO A DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS TO THE WEST...AND ALONG THE
EASTERN PERIMETER GIVEN WEAKER DOWNSLOPE ESPCLY WHEN MIXING WEAKENS.
HOWEVER INSTABILITY NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE SO RUNNING WITH ONLY ISOLATED
EVENING POPS IN THESE SPOTS BEFORE DRY ADVECTION WINS OUT OVERNIGHT.
AREA WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN FEATURES AND UNDER A BUBBLE HIGH WEDNESDAY
AIDED BY WEST/NW FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN AND LOWER PWATS. MOST GUIDANCE
INCLUDING THE LATEST ENSEMBLES HAVE LITTLE PRECIP UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE
WEDNESDAY SO TRIMMED BACK TO ONLY ISOLATED POPS ACROSS THE SW AND FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY DON`T APPEAR
QUITE AS HOT AS EARLIER GIVEN DECENT 85H COOLING DESPITE DOWNSLOPE
ALOFT AND MORE SUN. STILL THINK SOME LOW/MID 90S LIKELY EAST AND 80S
WEST.

MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN INITIAL WAVE
HEADS EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND BEGINS TO LIFT THE FRONT BACK
NORTH WITH WEAK OVERRUNNING IN PLACE. GUIDANCE REMAINS SLOW TO MOISTEN
THINGS UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST FLUX OF DEEP MOISTURE NOT
RETURNING UNTIL THURSDAY PER THE LATEST GFS/EURO. SINCE APPEARS BEST
MOISTURE/LIFT WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE FAR WEST/NORTH WITH THE
FRONT...WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SLIGHTS
OUT EAST.

PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS IN WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MODELS SHOWING DECENT INSTABILITY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS WELL AS LIFT WITH THE SURFACE WAVE THURSDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN EXACTLY WHERE THE CORE OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL TRACK WITH SOME SOLUTIONS FARTHER WEST WHICH WOULD
LIMIT FOCUS UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT AFTER LOSS OF HEATING. THEREFORE
KEEPING LIKELY POPS CONFINED TO THE WEST AND CHANCE OUT EAST FOR
NOW. LEFT TEMPS CLOSER TO A MORE BLENDED SOLUTION PENDING DEGREE
OF SHOWER COVERAGE WHICH COULD MAKE THINGS COOLER THAN THE 80S TO
AROUND 90 SE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT MONDAY...

STRONG SHORTWAVE FOR EARLY AUGUST WILL PASS ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE
REGION TO START THE PERIOD ALLOWING A TRAILING COLD FRONT TO SLIDE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS BY LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER DIGGING 5H TROUGH THAT WILL BRING THE ONSET OF
THE NEXT ROUND OF SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
HOWEVER NEW GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FLIP FLOP AS SOME SOLUTIONS NOW NOT
AS DEEP OR PROLONGED WITH THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH IN HAVING A PASSING
5H COOL POOL EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BEFORE RETURNING TO MORE ZONAL FLOW
AND SOME RETURN IN MOISTURE BY DAY7. THIS AHEAD OF ADDED UPSTREAM
CLIPPER TYPE ENERGY THAT SHOULD GIVE THE INITIAL SYSTEM A BIT OF A
BOOT TO START. THIS COULD ALSO KEEP MORE CLOUDS AROUND AT TIMES DESPITE
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IN PLACE...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
SW SUNDAY AND MAINLY OVER THE WEST MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE.

THUS AFTER HIGHER CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS ESPCLY NORTH/WEST WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY...WILL HANG ONTO SOME ISOLATED TO LOW CHANCE
POPS SATURDAY AND OVER THE FAR SW SUNDAY DESPITE THE SURFACE FRONT WELL
TO THE SOUTH. OTRW THINKING THAT MUCH OF THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY WILL
REMAIN DRY PENDING LATER TRENDS WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION FROM LATE IN THE WEEK. TEMPS TO COOL BACK TO JUST
BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS BUT NOT QUITE AS COOL AS SEEN YESTERDAY FOR
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM EDT MONDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE NWS BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA
AT 23Z/7 PM EDT AS OUR REGION IS CURRENTLY SANDWICHED BETWEEN
SYSTEMS. A COLD FRONT WAS NOTED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH A WEAK
WARM FRONT NOTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST VA/EASTERN NC.

THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY IN THE MESO MODELS AS TO WHEN SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS OHIO/N KY WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST.
AMONG THE MESO MODELS...THE HRRR IS HANDLING THIS COMPLEX OF STORM
THE BEST AND SHOWS DECAYING PRECIP ARRIVING AFTER 03Z. AS THIS
CLUSTER OF STORMS APPROACHES...IT WILL BE ENCOUNTERING DRIER AIR
AND WEAKENING INFLOW WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN THIS ACTIVITY
DIMINISHING...BUT WILL BRING POTENTIALLY MVFR CIGS TO THE
MOUNTAIN TAF SITES AFTER 05Z/01 AM EDT.

THE ANTICIPATED CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION WILL COMPLICATE THE FOG
FORECAST TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FOG TONIGHT...MAY BE IN THE
FAR EAST WHERE BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST.
CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
BUT THE EXACT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL PLAY A BIG
ROLE IN FOG POTENTIAL. CURRENTLY FEEL CONDITIONS WILL NOT FAVOR
FOG AND WILL CONTINUE TO OMIT FOG FROM TAFS THIS PACKAGE.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW
AND EXPECT SOME SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD....THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING AND
LOCATION...BUT SIGNALS IN THE MODELS SUGGEST BEST CHANCE FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AND AS A RESULT...ADDED VCTS TO KDAN.

EXPECT WINDS TO BE WESTERLY WITH SOME LOW LEVEL GUSTS POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY TOMORROW AS WINDS BECOME MORE NWLY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC BY LATE WEEK WHICH COULD
BRING A BIT MORE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. THE THREAT OF SUB- VFR REMAINS LOW UNTIL
THURSDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL FOG POTENTIAL AT KLWB/KBCB EACH
MORNING BETWEEN 09-13Z.
&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...MBS/PH



000
FXUS61 KRNK 032314
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
714 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING BEFORE
WEAKENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
LATE TONIGHT. THIS FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY BEFORE
STALLING OVER THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...

MCS ACTIVITY THAT DISSIPATED OVER WV BEFORE SUNRISE HAS LEFT A BUBBLE
HIGH ACROSS THE REGION THAT HAS SUPPRESSED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE REGION AND PUSHED STORM DEVELOPMENT OFF TO OUR EAST. THIS SHOULD
YIELD A DRY EVENING BEFORE ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND ARRIVES AT THE WESTERN SLOPES
OF THE APPALACHIANS. THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY IN WHEN THE
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES BUT BELIEVE THE MOST LIKELY TIMING WILL BE NO
EARLIER THAN 06Z AND EXPECT CONVECTION WILL BE ON THE DECLINE WHEN IT
ARRIVES SO DO NOT EXPECT IT TO MAKE MUCH HEADWAY PAST SOUTHEAST WV AND
THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION OF VA.

THE FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW AND EXPECT
THIS TO TRIGGER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS APPEAR MORE BULLISH ON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH
SLIGHTLY BETTER DYNAMICS BUT INSTABILITY IS LIMITED SO SEVERE THREAT
WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST AND CONFINED TO EASTERN SECTIONS AS PER THE
CURRENT SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY AND
WAIT TO SEE HOW THE SITUATION UNFOLDS TONIGHT TO MAKE ANY NECESSARY
ADJUSTMENTS.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT MORE MILD TONIGHT AS CLOUDS AND DEW
POINTS START TO INCREASE. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM UPPER
60S/AROUND 70 EAST TO LOW/MID 60S WEST. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE AIDED BY
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING DOWNSLOPE WINDS...SO HIGHS
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 90S EAST TO MID/UPPER 80S WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT MONDAY...

COLD FRONT WILL HAVE JUMPED INTO THE PIEDMONT LEE TROUGH BY EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE PUSHING EAST ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN
FROM THE NW THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH STRONG DOWNSLOPING IN PLACE...POPS
APPEAR QUITE IFFY TUESDAY EVENING EXCEPT PERHAPS OVER THE FAR WEST
WHERE CLOSER TO A DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS TO THE WEST...AND ALONG THE
EASTERN PERIMETER GIVEN WEAKER DOWNSLOPE ESPCLY WHEN MIXING WEAKENS.
HOWEVER INSTABILITY NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE SO RUNNING WITH ONLY ISOLATED
EVENING POPS IN THESE SPOTS BEFORE DRY ADVECTION WINS OUT OVERNIGHT.
AREA WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN FEATURES AND UNDER A BUBBLE HIGH WEDNESDAY
AIDED BY WEST/NW FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN AND LOWER PWATS. MOST GUIDANCE
INCLUDING THE LATEST ENSEMBLES HAVE LITTLE PRECIP UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE
WEDNESDAY SO TRIMMED BACK TO ONLY ISOLATED POPS ACROSS THE SW AND FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY DON`T APPEAR
QUITE AS HOT AS EARLIER GIVEN DECENT 85H COOLING DESPITE DOWNSLOPE
ALOFT AND MORE SUN. STILL THINK SOME LOW/MID 90S LIKELY EAST AND 80S
WEST.

MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN INITIAL WAVE
HEADS EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND BEGINS TO LIFT THE FRONT BACK
NORTH WITH WEAK OVERRUNNING IN PLACE. GUIDANCE REMAINS SLOW TO MOISTEN
THINGS UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST FLUX OF DEEP MOISTURE NOT
RETURNING UNTIL THURSDAY PER THE LATEST GFS/EURO. SINCE APPEARS BEST
MOISTURE/LIFT WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE FAR WEST/NORTH WITH THE
FRONT...WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SLIGHTS
OUT EAST.

PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS IN WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MODELS SHOWING DECENT INSTABILITY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS WELL AS LIFT WITH THE SURFACE WAVE THURSDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN EXACTLY WHERE THE CORE OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL TRACK WITH SOME SOLUTIONS FARTHER WEST WHICH WOULD
LIMIT FOCUS UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT AFTER LOSS OF HEATING. THEREFORE
KEEPING LIKELY POPS CONFINED TO THE WEST AND CHANCE OUT EAST FOR
NOW. LEFT TEMPS CLOSER TO A MORE BLENDED SOLUTION PENDING DEGREE
OF SHOWER COVERAGE WHICH COULD MAKE THINGS COOLER THAN THE 80S TO
AROUND 90 SE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT MONDAY...

STRONG SHORTWAVE FOR EARLY AUGUST WILL PASS ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE
REGION TO START THE PERIOD ALLOWING A TRAILING COLD FRONT TO SLIDE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS BY LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER DIGGING 5H TROUGH THAT WILL BRING THE ONSET OF
THE NEXT ROUND OF SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
HOWEVER NEW GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FLIP FLOP AS SOME SOLUTIONS NOW NOT
AS DEEP OR PROLONGED WITH THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH IN HAVING A PASSING
5H COOL POOL EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BEFORE RETURNING TO MORE ZONAL FLOW
AND SOME RETURN IN MOISTURE BY DAY7. THIS AHEAD OF ADDED UPSTREAM
CLIPPER TYPE ENERGY THAT SHOULD GIVE THE INITIAL SYSTEM A BIT OF A
BOOT TO START. THIS COULD ALSO KEEP MORE CLOUDS AROUND AT TIMES DESPITE
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IN PLACE...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
SW SUNDAY AND MAINLY OVER THE WEST MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE.

THUS AFTER HIGHER CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS ESPCLY NORTH/WEST WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY...WILL HANG ONTO SOME ISOLATED TO LOW CHANCE
POPS SATURDAY AND OVER THE FAR SW SUNDAY DESPITE THE SURFACE FRONT WELL
TO THE SOUTH. OTRW THINKING THAT MUCH OF THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY WILL
REMAIN DRY PENDING LATER TRENDS WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION FROM LATE IN THE WEEK. TEMPS TO COOL BACK TO JUST
BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS BUT NOT QUITE AS COOL AS SEEN YESTERDAY FOR
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM EDT MONDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE NWS BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA
AT 23Z/7 PM EDT AS OUR REGION IS CURRENTLY SANDWICHED BETWEEN
SYSTEMS. A COLD FRONT WAS NOTED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH A WEAK
WARM FRONT NOTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST VA/EASTERN NC.

THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY IN THE MESO MODELS AS TO WHEN SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS OHIO/N KY WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST.
AMONG THE MESO MODELS...THE HRRR IS HANDLING THIS COMPLEX OF STORM
THE BEST AND SHOWS DECAYING PRECIP ARRIVING AFTER 03Z. AS THIS
CLUSTER OF STORMS APPROACHES...IT WILL BE ENCOUNTERING DRIER AIR
AND WEAKENING INFLOW WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN THIS ACTIVITY
DIMINISHING...BUT WILL BRING POTENTIALLY MVFR CIGS TO THE
MOUNTAIN TAF SITES AFTER 05Z/01 AM EDT.

THE ANTICIPATED CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION WILL COMPLICATE THE FOG
FORECAST TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FOG TONIGHT...MAY BE IN THE
FAR EAST WHERE BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST.
CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
BUT THE EXACT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL PLAY A BIG
ROLE IN FOG POTENTIAL. CURRENTLY FEEL CONDITIONS WILL NOT FAVOR
FOG AND WILL CONTINUE TO OMIT FOG FROM TAFS THIS PACKAGE.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW
AND EXPECT SOME SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD....THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING AND
LOCATION...BUT SIGNALS IN THE MODELS SUGGEST BEST CHANCE FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AND AS A RESULT...ADDED VCTS TO KDAN.

EXPECT WINDS TO BE WESTERLY WITH SOME LOW LEVEL GUSTS POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY TOMORROW AS WINDS BECOME MORE NWLY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC BY LATE WEEK WHICH COULD
BRING A BIT MORE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. THE THREAT OF SUB- VFR REMAINS LOW UNTIL
THURSDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL FOG POTENTIAL AT KLWB/KBCB EACH
MORNING BETWEEN 09-13Z.
&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...MBS/PH




000
FXUS61 KRNK 032314
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
714 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING BEFORE
WEAKENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
LATE TONIGHT. THIS FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY BEFORE
STALLING OVER THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...

MCS ACTIVITY THAT DISSIPATED OVER WV BEFORE SUNRISE HAS LEFT A BUBBLE
HIGH ACROSS THE REGION THAT HAS SUPPRESSED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE REGION AND PUSHED STORM DEVELOPMENT OFF TO OUR EAST. THIS SHOULD
YIELD A DRY EVENING BEFORE ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND ARRIVES AT THE WESTERN SLOPES
OF THE APPALACHIANS. THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY IN WHEN THE
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES BUT BELIEVE THE MOST LIKELY TIMING WILL BE NO
EARLIER THAN 06Z AND EXPECT CONVECTION WILL BE ON THE DECLINE WHEN IT
ARRIVES SO DO NOT EXPECT IT TO MAKE MUCH HEADWAY PAST SOUTHEAST WV AND
THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION OF VA.

THE FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW AND EXPECT
THIS TO TRIGGER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS APPEAR MORE BULLISH ON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH
SLIGHTLY BETTER DYNAMICS BUT INSTABILITY IS LIMITED SO SEVERE THREAT
WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST AND CONFINED TO EASTERN SECTIONS AS PER THE
CURRENT SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY AND
WAIT TO SEE HOW THE SITUATION UNFOLDS TONIGHT TO MAKE ANY NECESSARY
ADJUSTMENTS.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT MORE MILD TONIGHT AS CLOUDS AND DEW
POINTS START TO INCREASE. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM UPPER
60S/AROUND 70 EAST TO LOW/MID 60S WEST. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE AIDED BY
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING DOWNSLOPE WINDS...SO HIGHS
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 90S EAST TO MID/UPPER 80S WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT MONDAY...

COLD FRONT WILL HAVE JUMPED INTO THE PIEDMONT LEE TROUGH BY EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE PUSHING EAST ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN
FROM THE NW THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH STRONG DOWNSLOPING IN PLACE...POPS
APPEAR QUITE IFFY TUESDAY EVENING EXCEPT PERHAPS OVER THE FAR WEST
WHERE CLOSER TO A DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS TO THE WEST...AND ALONG THE
EASTERN PERIMETER GIVEN WEAKER DOWNSLOPE ESPCLY WHEN MIXING WEAKENS.
HOWEVER INSTABILITY NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE SO RUNNING WITH ONLY ISOLATED
EVENING POPS IN THESE SPOTS BEFORE DRY ADVECTION WINS OUT OVERNIGHT.
AREA WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN FEATURES AND UNDER A BUBBLE HIGH WEDNESDAY
AIDED BY WEST/NW FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN AND LOWER PWATS. MOST GUIDANCE
INCLUDING THE LATEST ENSEMBLES HAVE LITTLE PRECIP UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE
WEDNESDAY SO TRIMMED BACK TO ONLY ISOLATED POPS ACROSS THE SW AND FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY DON`T APPEAR
QUITE AS HOT AS EARLIER GIVEN DECENT 85H COOLING DESPITE DOWNSLOPE
ALOFT AND MORE SUN. STILL THINK SOME LOW/MID 90S LIKELY EAST AND 80S
WEST.

MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN INITIAL WAVE
HEADS EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND BEGINS TO LIFT THE FRONT BACK
NORTH WITH WEAK OVERRUNNING IN PLACE. GUIDANCE REMAINS SLOW TO MOISTEN
THINGS UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST FLUX OF DEEP MOISTURE NOT
RETURNING UNTIL THURSDAY PER THE LATEST GFS/EURO. SINCE APPEARS BEST
MOISTURE/LIFT WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE FAR WEST/NORTH WITH THE
FRONT...WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SLIGHTS
OUT EAST.

PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS IN WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MODELS SHOWING DECENT INSTABILITY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS WELL AS LIFT WITH THE SURFACE WAVE THURSDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN EXACTLY WHERE THE CORE OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL TRACK WITH SOME SOLUTIONS FARTHER WEST WHICH WOULD
LIMIT FOCUS UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT AFTER LOSS OF HEATING. THEREFORE
KEEPING LIKELY POPS CONFINED TO THE WEST AND CHANCE OUT EAST FOR
NOW. LEFT TEMPS CLOSER TO A MORE BLENDED SOLUTION PENDING DEGREE
OF SHOWER COVERAGE WHICH COULD MAKE THINGS COOLER THAN THE 80S TO
AROUND 90 SE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT MONDAY...

STRONG SHORTWAVE FOR EARLY AUGUST WILL PASS ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE
REGION TO START THE PERIOD ALLOWING A TRAILING COLD FRONT TO SLIDE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS BY LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER DIGGING 5H TROUGH THAT WILL BRING THE ONSET OF
THE NEXT ROUND OF SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
HOWEVER NEW GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FLIP FLOP AS SOME SOLUTIONS NOW NOT
AS DEEP OR PROLONGED WITH THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH IN HAVING A PASSING
5H COOL POOL EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BEFORE RETURNING TO MORE ZONAL FLOW
AND SOME RETURN IN MOISTURE BY DAY7. THIS AHEAD OF ADDED UPSTREAM
CLIPPER TYPE ENERGY THAT SHOULD GIVE THE INITIAL SYSTEM A BIT OF A
BOOT TO START. THIS COULD ALSO KEEP MORE CLOUDS AROUND AT TIMES DESPITE
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IN PLACE...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
SW SUNDAY AND MAINLY OVER THE WEST MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE.

THUS AFTER HIGHER CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS ESPCLY NORTH/WEST WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY...WILL HANG ONTO SOME ISOLATED TO LOW CHANCE
POPS SATURDAY AND OVER THE FAR SW SUNDAY DESPITE THE SURFACE FRONT WELL
TO THE SOUTH. OTRW THINKING THAT MUCH OF THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY WILL
REMAIN DRY PENDING LATER TRENDS WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION FROM LATE IN THE WEEK. TEMPS TO COOL BACK TO JUST
BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS BUT NOT QUITE AS COOL AS SEEN YESTERDAY FOR
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM EDT MONDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE NWS BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA
AT 23Z/7 PM EDT AS OUR REGION IS CURRENTLY SANDWICHED BETWEEN
SYSTEMS. A COLD FRONT WAS NOTED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH A WEAK
WARM FRONT NOTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST VA/EASTERN NC.

THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY IN THE MESO MODELS AS TO WHEN SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS OHIO/N KY WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST.
AMONG THE MESO MODELS...THE HRRR IS HANDLING THIS COMPLEX OF STORM
THE BEST AND SHOWS DECAYING PRECIP ARRIVING AFTER 03Z. AS THIS
CLUSTER OF STORMS APPROACHES...IT WILL BE ENCOUNTERING DRIER AIR
AND WEAKENING INFLOW WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN THIS ACTIVITY
DIMINISHING...BUT WILL BRING POTENTIALLY MVFR CIGS TO THE
MOUNTAIN TAF SITES AFTER 05Z/01 AM EDT.

THE ANTICIPATED CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION WILL COMPLICATE THE FOG
FORECAST TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FOG TONIGHT...MAY BE IN THE
FAR EAST WHERE BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST.
CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
BUT THE EXACT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL PLAY A BIG
ROLE IN FOG POTENTIAL. CURRENTLY FEEL CONDITIONS WILL NOT FAVOR
FOG AND WILL CONTINUE TO OMIT FOG FROM TAFS THIS PACKAGE.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW
AND EXPECT SOME SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD....THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING AND
LOCATION...BUT SIGNALS IN THE MODELS SUGGEST BEST CHANCE FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AND AS A RESULT...ADDED VCTS TO KDAN.

EXPECT WINDS TO BE WESTERLY WITH SOME LOW LEVEL GUSTS POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY TOMORROW AS WINDS BECOME MORE NWLY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC BY LATE WEEK WHICH COULD
BRING A BIT MORE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. THE THREAT OF SUB- VFR REMAINS LOW UNTIL
THURSDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL FOG POTENTIAL AT KLWB/KBCB EACH
MORNING BETWEEN 09-13Z.
&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...MBS/PH


  [top]

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031930
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
330 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN STALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY.
THIS BOUNDARY MOVES BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SCT CONVECTION SHUD CONT BUT TRANSLATE TOWARD THE SE COAST THRU
00Z AS MID LEVEL TROF MOVES EAST. SFC HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE
TONIGHT PLACING FA IN BTWN TWO FRNTL BNDRYS. EXPECT THE CONVECTION
TO DSPT THIS EVENING AS BEST FORCING AND MSTR REMAINS SOUTH OF THE
FA WITH THE BNDRY ACROSS NC AND NORTH OF THE FA ALONG THE APPRCHG
CDFRNT. MSTLY CLR TO PT CLDY AND A BIT WRMR THAN PAST FEW NITES.
LOWS U60S-L70S XCPT M70S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHARPENING TROF ALLOWS A COLD FRONT TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUE. LATEST DATA SUGGESTS THIS BNDRY STALLS THEN REMAINS NRLY STNRY
ACROSS NRN NC TUE NIGHT AND WED BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT THURSDAY. THE KEY TO THE MID WEEK FCST WILL BE THE EXACT LCTN
OF THIS BNDRY AS IT WILL LIKELY ACT TO SERVE AS A TRIGGER FOR TSTMS.

ANTHR HOT DAY AHEAD OF ANY CONVECTION TUE. H85 TMPS SPRTS HIGHS IN
THE L-M90S (HEAT INDEX ARND 100). SPC HAS THE FA IN A MARGINAL RISK
TUE. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SVR NOT XPCTD...CAN`T RULE OUT STRNG WND
GUSTS ALONG WITH LCLLY HVY DOWNPOURS WITH SCT AFTRN AND EVE TSTRMS.

HIGH PRS TO THE NORTH PUSHES FRNTL BNDRY INTO NRN NC LATE TUE NIGHT.
BCMG PT CLDY AFTR MIDNIGHT. LOWS M-U60S NORTY...U60S-L70S SOUTH.

DATA NOW DRIER WED AND WED NIGHT AS THE HIGH PUSHES SPRT FOR PCPN TO
THE SOUTH. KEPT SLGHT CHC POPS ACROSS SWRN CNTYS CLOSER TO ANY
INSTAB WED AFTRN. OTW...DRY UNDER PT TO MSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS
U80S-L90S. LOWS WED NIGHT U60S-M70S.

MODEL DIFFERENCES MAKE FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE FCST THU. GFS AND TO A
CERTAIN EXTEND THE SREF NOW RTHR DRY WITH MOST SPRT FOR PCPN STAYING
N AND W OF FA WHILE NAM HAS PCPN OVRSPRDG THE FA AFTR 18Z. FOR NOW...
REMOVED MORNING POPS BUT KEPT CHC POPS AFTR 18Z...HIGHEST CHC W.
HIGHS M80S-L90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WX TO START OFF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH FREQUENT CHANCES
OF RAIN DUE TO AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN CONUS AND
TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC REGION. 12Z
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON EXACT TIMING OF PCPN...BUT FOR NOW
THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF RAIN THUR NIGHT THRU FRI
NIGHT. DRYING TREND THEN COMMENCES INTO THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPR-
LEVEL TROF AXIS PULLS OFFSHORE AND SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W. AS
FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL RANGE THRU THE 80S EVERY DAY WITH LOWS AVGG
IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK TROF OF LO PRES WAS STRETCHING FM ESE MD SW THRU EAST-CNTRL
VA AND INTO NCNTRL NC THIS AFTN. RDR INDICATED ISLTD SHOWERS AND
TSTMS DEVELOPING ALNG THE BNDRY FM CNTRL VA (JUST ENE RIC) SW INTO
NCNTRL NC. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY ONLY LAST INTO EARLY THIS
EVENG BEFORE DISSIPATING. OTHERWISE...MORE PCPN WAS ALNG THE NC
OUTER BANKS CLOSER TO A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BNDRY. DID NOT PUT ANY
PCPN IN THE 18Z TAFS...AND JUST EXPECT VFR CONDS WITH SCT SC AND
AC FOR THE TAF SITES THRU THE TAF PERIOD. ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL
THEN SLOWLY PUSH INTO AND ACRS THE REGION TUE INTO WED
MORNG...PROVIDING SLGT TO SML CHCS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS. BREEZY SW
WINDS PERSIST ON TUE...BECOMING MORE W-NW ON WED. CONDITIONS
BECOME MORE UNSETTLED LATER THU THRU FRI...AS LO PRES AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AFFECT THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE AS PLANNED FOR THE BAY/SOUND/CSTL WTRS N OF
THE NC/VA BORDER AS THE PRES GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO PICK UP THIS AFTN BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT OVER THE WTRS LATER THIS EVENG...WITH GUSTS TO
25 KT. SCA OVER THE OCEAN IS MAINLY FOR 5 FT SEAS. ALL HEADLINES END
MORNG TO MIDDAY TUE AS WINDS/WAVES/SEAS DECREASE. ANOTHER WEAK SLY
SURGE IS EXPECTED LATE TUE AFTN/EVENG AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRNTAL
BNDRY...BUT CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY JUST SHY OF SCA THRESHOLDS
ATTM. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. THE FRNT DROPS THRU THE AREA LATE
TUE NIGHT...WITH NW FLOW WED FOLLOWING THE FROPA. SUB-SCA CONDS THEN
EXPECTED THRU FRI.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ633-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MAS



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031930
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
330 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN STALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY.
THIS BOUNDARY MOVES BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SCT CONVECTION SHUD CONT BUT TRANSLATE TOWARD THE SE COAST THRU
00Z AS MID LEVEL TROF MOVES EAST. SFC HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE
TONIGHT PLACING FA IN BTWN TWO FRNTL BNDRYS. EXPECT THE CONVECTION
TO DSPT THIS EVENING AS BEST FORCING AND MSTR REMAINS SOUTH OF THE
FA WITH THE BNDRY ACROSS NC AND NORTH OF THE FA ALONG THE APPRCHG
CDFRNT. MSTLY CLR TO PT CLDY AND A BIT WRMR THAN PAST FEW NITES.
LOWS U60S-L70S XCPT M70S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHARPENING TROF ALLOWS A COLD FRONT TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUE. LATEST DATA SUGGESTS THIS BNDRY STALLS THEN REMAINS NRLY STNRY
ACROSS NRN NC TUE NIGHT AND WED BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT THURSDAY. THE KEY TO THE MID WEEK FCST WILL BE THE EXACT LCTN
OF THIS BNDRY AS IT WILL LIKELY ACT TO SERVE AS A TRIGGER FOR TSTMS.

ANTHR HOT DAY AHEAD OF ANY CONVECTION TUE. H85 TMPS SPRTS HIGHS IN
THE L-M90S (HEAT INDEX ARND 100). SPC HAS THE FA IN A MARGINAL RISK
TUE. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SVR NOT XPCTD...CAN`T RULE OUT STRNG WND
GUSTS ALONG WITH LCLLY HVY DOWNPOURS WITH SCT AFTRN AND EVE TSTRMS.

HIGH PRS TO THE NORTH PUSHES FRNTL BNDRY INTO NRN NC LATE TUE NIGHT.
BCMG PT CLDY AFTR MIDNIGHT. LOWS M-U60S NORTY...U60S-L70S SOUTH.

DATA NOW DRIER WED AND WED NIGHT AS THE HIGH PUSHES SPRT FOR PCPN TO
THE SOUTH. KEPT SLGHT CHC POPS ACROSS SWRN CNTYS CLOSER TO ANY
INSTAB WED AFTRN. OTW...DRY UNDER PT TO MSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS
U80S-L90S. LOWS WED NIGHT U60S-M70S.

MODEL DIFFERENCES MAKE FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE FCST THU. GFS AND TO A
CERTAIN EXTEND THE SREF NOW RTHR DRY WITH MOST SPRT FOR PCPN STAYING
N AND W OF FA WHILE NAM HAS PCPN OVRSPRDG THE FA AFTR 18Z. FOR NOW...
REMOVED MORNING POPS BUT KEPT CHC POPS AFTR 18Z...HIGHEST CHC W.
HIGHS M80S-L90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WX TO START OFF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH FREQUENT CHANCES
OF RAIN DUE TO AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN CONUS AND
TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC REGION. 12Z
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON EXACT TIMING OF PCPN...BUT FOR NOW
THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF RAIN THUR NIGHT THRU FRI
NIGHT. DRYING TREND THEN COMMENCES INTO THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPR-
LEVEL TROF AXIS PULLS OFFSHORE AND SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W. AS
FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL RANGE THRU THE 80S EVERY DAY WITH LOWS AVGG
IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK TROF OF LO PRES WAS STRETCHING FM ESE MD SW THRU EAST-CNTRL
VA AND INTO NCNTRL NC THIS AFTN. RDR INDICATED ISLTD SHOWERS AND
TSTMS DEVELOPING ALNG THE BNDRY FM CNTRL VA (JUST ENE RIC) SW INTO
NCNTRL NC. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY ONLY LAST INTO EARLY THIS
EVENG BEFORE DISSIPATING. OTHERWISE...MORE PCPN WAS ALNG THE NC
OUTER BANKS CLOSER TO A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BNDRY. DID NOT PUT ANY
PCPN IN THE 18Z TAFS...AND JUST EXPECT VFR CONDS WITH SCT SC AND
AC FOR THE TAF SITES THRU THE TAF PERIOD. ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL
THEN SLOWLY PUSH INTO AND ACRS THE REGION TUE INTO WED
MORNG...PROVIDING SLGT TO SML CHCS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS. BREEZY SW
WINDS PERSIST ON TUE...BECOMING MORE W-NW ON WED. CONDITIONS
BECOME MORE UNSETTLED LATER THU THRU FRI...AS LO PRES AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AFFECT THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE AS PLANNED FOR THE BAY/SOUND/CSTL WTRS N OF
THE NC/VA BORDER AS THE PRES GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO PICK UP THIS AFTN BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT OVER THE WTRS LATER THIS EVENG...WITH GUSTS TO
25 KT. SCA OVER THE OCEAN IS MAINLY FOR 5 FT SEAS. ALL HEADLINES END
MORNG TO MIDDAY TUE AS WINDS/WAVES/SEAS DECREASE. ANOTHER WEAK SLY
SURGE IS EXPECTED LATE TUE AFTN/EVENG AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRNTAL
BNDRY...BUT CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY JUST SHY OF SCA THRESHOLDS
ATTM. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. THE FRNT DROPS THRU THE AREA LATE
TUE NIGHT...WITH NW FLOW WED FOLLOWING THE FROPA. SUB-SCA CONDS THEN
EXPECTED THRU FRI.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ633-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MAS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 031927
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
327 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING BEFORE
WEAKENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
LATE TONIGHT. THIS FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY BEFORE
STALLING OVER THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...

MCS ACTIVITY THAT DISSIPATED OVER WV BEFORE SUNRISE HAS LEFT A BUBBLE
HIGH ACROSS THE REGION THAT HAS SUPPRESSED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE REGION AND PUSHED STORM DEVELOPMENT OFF TO OUR EAST. THIS SHOULD
YIELD A DRY EVENING BEFORE ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND ARRIVES AT THE WESTERN SLOPES
OF THE APPALACHIANS. THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY IN WHEN THE
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES BUT BELIEVE THE MOST LIKELY TIMING WILL BE NO
EARLIER THAN 06Z AND EXPECT CONVECTION WILL BE ON THE DECLINE WHEN IT
ARRIVES SO DO NOT EXPECT IT TO MAKE MUCH HEADWAY PAST SOUTHEAST WV AND
THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION OF VA.

THE FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW AND EXPECT
THIS TO TRIGGER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS APPEAR MORE BULLISH ON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH
SLIGHTLY BETTER DYNAMICS BUT INSTABILITY IS LIMITED SO SEVERE THREAT
WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST AND CONFINED TO EASTERN SECTIONS AS PER THE
CURRENT SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY AND
WAIT TO SEE HOW THE SITUATION UNFOLDS TONIGHT TO MAKE ANY NECESSARY
ADJUSTMENTS.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT MORE MILD TONIGHT AS CLOUDS AND DEW
POINTS START TO INCREASE. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM UPPER
60S/AROUND 70 EAST TO LOW/MID 60S WEST. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE AIDED BY
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING DOWNSLOPE WINDS...SO HIGHS
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 90S EAST TO MID/UPPER 80S WEST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT MONDAY...

COLD FRONT WILL HAVE JUMPED INTO THE PIEDMONT LEE TROUGH BY EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE PUSHING EAST ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN
FROM THE NW THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH STRONG DOWNSLOPING IN PLACE...POPS
APPEAR QUITE IFFY TUESDAY EVENING EXCEPT PERHAPS OVER THE FAR WEST
WHERE CLOSER TO A DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS TO THE WEST...AND ALONG THE
EASTERN PERIMETER GIVEN WEAKER DOWNSLOPE ESPCLY WHEN MIXING WEAKENS.
HOWEVER INSTABILITY NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE SO RUNNING WITH ONLY ISOLATED
EVENING POPS IN THESE SPOTS BEFORE DRY ADVECTION WINS OUT OVERNIGHT.
AREA WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN FEATURES AND UNDER A BUBBLE HIGH WEDNESDAY
AIDED BY WEST/NW FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN AND LOWER PWATS. MOST GUIDANCE
INCLUDING THE LATEST ENSEMBLES HAVE LITTLE PRECIP UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE
WEDNESDAY SO TRIMMED BACK TO ONLY ISOLATED POPS ACROSS THE SW AND FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY DON`T APPEAR
QUITE AS HOT AS EARLIER GIVEN DECENT 85H COOLING DESPITE DOWNSLOPE
ALOFT AND MORE SUN. STILL THINK SOME LOW/MID 90S LIKELY EAST AND 80S
WEST.

MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN INITIAL WAVE
HEADS EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND BEGINS TO LIFT THE FRONT BACK
NORTH WITH WEAK OVERRUNNING IN PLACE. GUIDANCE REMAINS SLOW TO MOISTEN
THINGS UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST FLUX OF DEEP MOISTURE NOT
RETURNING UNTIL THURSDAY PER THE LATEST GFS/EURO. SINCE APPEARS BEST
MOISTURE/LIFT WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE FAR WEST/NORTH WITH THE
FRONT...WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SLIGHTS
OUT EAST.

PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS IN WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MODELS SHOWING DECENT INSTABILITY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS WELL AS LIFT WITH THE SURFACE WAVE THURSDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN EXACTLY WHERE THE CORE OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL TRACK WITH SOME SOLUTIONS FARTHER WEST WHICH WOULD
LIMIT FOCUS UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT AFTER LOSS OF HEATING. THEREFORE
KEEPING LIKELY POPS CONFINED TO THE WEST AND CHANCE OUT EAST FOR
NOW. LEFT TEMPS CLOSER TO A MORE BLENDED SOLUTION PENDING DEGREE
OF SHOWER COVERAGE WHICH COULD MAKE THINGS COOLER THAN THE 80S TO
AROUND 90 SE ON THURSDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT MONDAY...

STRONG SHORTWAVE FOR EARLY AUGUST WILL PASS ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE
REGION TO START THE PERIOD ALLOWING A TRAILING COLD FRONT TO SLIDE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS BY LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER DIGGING 5H TROUGH THAT WILL BRING THE ONSET OF
THE NEXT ROUND OF SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
HOWEVER NEW GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FLIP FLOP AS SOME SOLUTIONS NOW NOT
AS DEEP OR PROLONGED WITH THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH IN HAVING A PASSING
5H COOL POOL EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BEFORE RETURNING TO MORE ZONAL FLOW
AND SOME RETURN IN MOISTURE BY DAY7. THIS AHEAD OF ADDED UPSTREAM
CLIPPER TYPE ENERGY THAT SHOULD GIVE THE INITIAL SYSTEM A BIT OF A
BOOT TO START. THIS COULD ALSO KEEP MORE CLOUDS AROUND AT TIMES DESPITE
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IN PLACE...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
SW SUNDAY AND MAINLY OVER THE WEST MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE.

THUS AFTER HIGHER CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS ESPCLY NORTH/WEST WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY...WILL HANG ONTO SOME ISOLATED TO LOW CHANCE
POPS SATURDAY AND OVER THE FAR SW SUNDAY DESPITE THE SURFACE FRONT WELL
TO THE SOUTH. OTRW THINKING THAT MUCH OF THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY WILL
REMAIN DRY PENDING LATER TRENDS WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION FROM LATE IN THE WEEK. TEMPS TO COOL BACK TO JUST
BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS BUT NOT QUITE AS COOL AS SEEN YESTERDAY FOR
NOW.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT MONDAY...

THERE ARE A LOT OF SUBTLE FEATURES TO CONSIDER THAT MAKE FOR SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS TAF PACKAGE. THE REGION IS CURRENTLY BETWEEN
SYSTEMS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH A
TROF/BOUNDARY TO OUR EAST. RADAR SHOES THAT STORMS HAVE FIRED
ALONG THE TROF/BOUNDARY EAST OF THE AREA AND BELIEVE ANY
REDEVELOPMENT FURTHER WEST WILL BE ISOLATED AND NOT WORTH A VCTS
MENTION...AND MESO MODELS INDICATE ANY ACTIVITY APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 00Z. THIS WILL YIELD VFR
TAFS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD.

THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY IN THE MESO MODELS AS TO WHEN ACTIVITY
WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST. BELIEVE THE MOST LIKELY TIMING IS
FOR ACTIVITY TO ARRIVE NO EARLIER THAN 06Z AND BE DIMINISHING AS
IT APPROACHES. WILL INTRODUCE AN MVFR CIG AT KBLF/KLWB BUT KEEP
VFR CLOUDS ELSEWHERE.

THE ANTICIPATED CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION WILL COMPLICATE THE FOG
FORECAST TONIGHT. TO THE EAST CONDITIONS SHOULD FAVOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND SOME THIN FOG DEVELOPMENT. FOG AND STRATUS WAS NOT
TOO FAR OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AND INDICATIONS ARE THAT
KDAN WILL GET INTO SOME MVFR FOG AND SOME SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS
TOWARD DAYBREAK. CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING WEST
OF THE RIDGE BUT THE EXACT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL
PLAY A BIG ROLE IN FOG POTENTIAL. CURRENTLY FEEL CONDITIONS WILL
NOT FAVOR FOG AND WILL OMIT FROM TAFS THIS PACKAGE. IF UPSTREAM
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION ARE LESS THAN ANTICIPATED EARLY TONIGHT THIS
WILL TIP THE SCALES IN FAVOR OF FOG AND IT MAY BECOME NECESSARY TO
ADD MVFR CONDITIONS AT KBLF/KBCB WITH SOME IFR/LIFR AT KLWB.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW
AND EXPECT SOME SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD...BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND LOCATION
WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF TS/SHRA WITH THIS PACKAGE.

EXPECT WINDS TO BE WESTERLY WITH SOME LOW LEVEL GUSTS POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY TOMORROW AS WINDS BECOME MORE NWLY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC FOR MID WEEK WHICH COULD
BRING A BIT MORE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATER
WEDNESDAY AND A BETTER CHANCE THURSDAY. THE THREAT OF SUB-VFR
REMAINS LOW UNTIL THURSDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL FOG POTENTIAL
AT KLWB/KBCB EACH MORNING BETWEEN 09-13Z.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...MBS/PM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 031927
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
327 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING BEFORE
WEAKENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
LATE TONIGHT. THIS FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY BEFORE
STALLING OVER THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...

MCS ACTIVITY THAT DISSIPATED OVER WV BEFORE SUNRISE HAS LEFT A BUBBLE
HIGH ACROSS THE REGION THAT HAS SUPPRESSED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE REGION AND PUSHED STORM DEVELOPMENT OFF TO OUR EAST. THIS SHOULD
YIELD A DRY EVENING BEFORE ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND ARRIVES AT THE WESTERN SLOPES
OF THE APPALACHIANS. THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY IN WHEN THE
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES BUT BELIEVE THE MOST LIKELY TIMING WILL BE NO
EARLIER THAN 06Z AND EXPECT CONVECTION WILL BE ON THE DECLINE WHEN IT
ARRIVES SO DO NOT EXPECT IT TO MAKE MUCH HEADWAY PAST SOUTHEAST WV AND
THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION OF VA.

THE FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW AND EXPECT
THIS TO TRIGGER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS APPEAR MORE BULLISH ON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH
SLIGHTLY BETTER DYNAMICS BUT INSTABILITY IS LIMITED SO SEVERE THREAT
WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST AND CONFINED TO EASTERN SECTIONS AS PER THE
CURRENT SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY AND
WAIT TO SEE HOW THE SITUATION UNFOLDS TONIGHT TO MAKE ANY NECESSARY
ADJUSTMENTS.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT MORE MILD TONIGHT AS CLOUDS AND DEW
POINTS START TO INCREASE. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM UPPER
60S/AROUND 70 EAST TO LOW/MID 60S WEST. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE AIDED BY
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING DOWNSLOPE WINDS...SO HIGHS
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 90S EAST TO MID/UPPER 80S WEST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT MONDAY...

COLD FRONT WILL HAVE JUMPED INTO THE PIEDMONT LEE TROUGH BY EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE PUSHING EAST ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN
FROM THE NW THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH STRONG DOWNSLOPING IN PLACE...POPS
APPEAR QUITE IFFY TUESDAY EVENING EXCEPT PERHAPS OVER THE FAR WEST
WHERE CLOSER TO A DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS TO THE WEST...AND ALONG THE
EASTERN PERIMETER GIVEN WEAKER DOWNSLOPE ESPCLY WHEN MIXING WEAKENS.
HOWEVER INSTABILITY NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE SO RUNNING WITH ONLY ISOLATED
EVENING POPS IN THESE SPOTS BEFORE DRY ADVECTION WINS OUT OVERNIGHT.
AREA WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN FEATURES AND UNDER A BUBBLE HIGH WEDNESDAY
AIDED BY WEST/NW FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN AND LOWER PWATS. MOST GUIDANCE
INCLUDING THE LATEST ENSEMBLES HAVE LITTLE PRECIP UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE
WEDNESDAY SO TRIMMED BACK TO ONLY ISOLATED POPS ACROSS THE SW AND FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY DON`T APPEAR
QUITE AS HOT AS EARLIER GIVEN DECENT 85H COOLING DESPITE DOWNSLOPE
ALOFT AND MORE SUN. STILL THINK SOME LOW/MID 90S LIKELY EAST AND 80S
WEST.

MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN INITIAL WAVE
HEADS EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND BEGINS TO LIFT THE FRONT BACK
NORTH WITH WEAK OVERRUNNING IN PLACE. GUIDANCE REMAINS SLOW TO MOISTEN
THINGS UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST FLUX OF DEEP MOISTURE NOT
RETURNING UNTIL THURSDAY PER THE LATEST GFS/EURO. SINCE APPEARS BEST
MOISTURE/LIFT WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE FAR WEST/NORTH WITH THE
FRONT...WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SLIGHTS
OUT EAST.

PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS IN WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MODELS SHOWING DECENT INSTABILITY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS WELL AS LIFT WITH THE SURFACE WAVE THURSDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN EXACTLY WHERE THE CORE OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL TRACK WITH SOME SOLUTIONS FARTHER WEST WHICH WOULD
LIMIT FOCUS UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT AFTER LOSS OF HEATING. THEREFORE
KEEPING LIKELY POPS CONFINED TO THE WEST AND CHANCE OUT EAST FOR
NOW. LEFT TEMPS CLOSER TO A MORE BLENDED SOLUTION PENDING DEGREE
OF SHOWER COVERAGE WHICH COULD MAKE THINGS COOLER THAN THE 80S TO
AROUND 90 SE ON THURSDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT MONDAY...

STRONG SHORTWAVE FOR EARLY AUGUST WILL PASS ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE
REGION TO START THE PERIOD ALLOWING A TRAILING COLD FRONT TO SLIDE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS BY LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER DIGGING 5H TROUGH THAT WILL BRING THE ONSET OF
THE NEXT ROUND OF SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
HOWEVER NEW GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FLIP FLOP AS SOME SOLUTIONS NOW NOT
AS DEEP OR PROLONGED WITH THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH IN HAVING A PASSING
5H COOL POOL EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BEFORE RETURNING TO MORE ZONAL FLOW
AND SOME RETURN IN MOISTURE BY DAY7. THIS AHEAD OF ADDED UPSTREAM
CLIPPER TYPE ENERGY THAT SHOULD GIVE THE INITIAL SYSTEM A BIT OF A
BOOT TO START. THIS COULD ALSO KEEP MORE CLOUDS AROUND AT TIMES DESPITE
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IN PLACE...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
SW SUNDAY AND MAINLY OVER THE WEST MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE.

THUS AFTER HIGHER CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS ESPCLY NORTH/WEST WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY...WILL HANG ONTO SOME ISOLATED TO LOW CHANCE
POPS SATURDAY AND OVER THE FAR SW SUNDAY DESPITE THE SURFACE FRONT WELL
TO THE SOUTH. OTRW THINKING THAT MUCH OF THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY WILL
REMAIN DRY PENDING LATER TRENDS WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION FROM LATE IN THE WEEK. TEMPS TO COOL BACK TO JUST
BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS BUT NOT QUITE AS COOL AS SEEN YESTERDAY FOR
NOW.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT MONDAY...

THERE ARE A LOT OF SUBTLE FEATURES TO CONSIDER THAT MAKE FOR SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS TAF PACKAGE. THE REGION IS CURRENTLY BETWEEN
SYSTEMS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH A
TROF/BOUNDARY TO OUR EAST. RADAR SHOES THAT STORMS HAVE FIRED
ALONG THE TROF/BOUNDARY EAST OF THE AREA AND BELIEVE ANY
REDEVELOPMENT FURTHER WEST WILL BE ISOLATED AND NOT WORTH A VCTS
MENTION...AND MESO MODELS INDICATE ANY ACTIVITY APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 00Z. THIS WILL YIELD VFR
TAFS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD.

THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY IN THE MESO MODELS AS TO WHEN ACTIVITY
WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST. BELIEVE THE MOST LIKELY TIMING IS
FOR ACTIVITY TO ARRIVE NO EARLIER THAN 06Z AND BE DIMINISHING AS
IT APPROACHES. WILL INTRODUCE AN MVFR CIG AT KBLF/KLWB BUT KEEP
VFR CLOUDS ELSEWHERE.

THE ANTICIPATED CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION WILL COMPLICATE THE FOG
FORECAST TONIGHT. TO THE EAST CONDITIONS SHOULD FAVOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND SOME THIN FOG DEVELOPMENT. FOG AND STRATUS WAS NOT
TOO FAR OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AND INDICATIONS ARE THAT
KDAN WILL GET INTO SOME MVFR FOG AND SOME SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS
TOWARD DAYBREAK. CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING WEST
OF THE RIDGE BUT THE EXACT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL
PLAY A BIG ROLE IN FOG POTENTIAL. CURRENTLY FEEL CONDITIONS WILL
NOT FAVOR FOG AND WILL OMIT FROM TAFS THIS PACKAGE. IF UPSTREAM
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION ARE LESS THAN ANTICIPATED EARLY TONIGHT THIS
WILL TIP THE SCALES IN FAVOR OF FOG AND IT MAY BECOME NECESSARY TO
ADD MVFR CONDITIONS AT KBLF/KBCB WITH SOME IFR/LIFR AT KLWB.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW
AND EXPECT SOME SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD...BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND LOCATION
WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF TS/SHRA WITH THIS PACKAGE.

EXPECT WINDS TO BE WESTERLY WITH SOME LOW LEVEL GUSTS POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY TOMORROW AS WINDS BECOME MORE NWLY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC FOR MID WEEK WHICH COULD
BRING A BIT MORE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATER
WEDNESDAY AND A BETTER CHANCE THURSDAY. THE THREAT OF SUB-VFR
REMAINS LOW UNTIL THURSDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL FOG POTENTIAL
AT KLWB/KBCB EACH MORNING BETWEEN 09-13Z.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...MBS/PM


  [top]

000
FXUS61 KLWX 031906
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
306 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDES EASTWARD ALONG IT. THIS LOW WILL CLEAR THE AREA FRIDAY
TAKING THE FRONT WITH IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT
AND DOMINATE OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED IN QUEBEC THIS AFTERNOON WHILE A COLD
FRONT STRETCHES INTO THE MIDWEST. A BERMUDA HIGH PERSISTS TO THE
EAST. A SFC TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC.

TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS THE REGION. A
CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED IN VICINITY OF THE SFC TROUGH MAINLY ACROSS
SE VA THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ACROSS
THE TIDEWATER REGION WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE 1-2K J/KG AND DEWPTS
ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70. FURTHER NORTH...DEWPTS ARE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AND IT HAS TAKEN MORE TIME TO DEVELOP A CU
FIELD. LITTLE FORCING WILL LIMIT CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.

THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE EASTWARD THIS EVENING
AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. ISO-SCT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS BUT MOST SHOULD STAY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND THEREFORE
THE POTENTIAL FOR A THUNDERSTORM EXISTS OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. FCST MIN TEMPS RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO THE LOW TO MID 70S ALONG AND EAST OF
I-95.

THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR TUESDAY. COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT BUT WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE FRONT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON TUESDAY
EAST OF I-95 WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS SOUTHERN MD AND
SURROUNDING WATERS. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL OF 2-3K J/KG
OF INSTABILITY AND GT 30KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. AN UPPER LEVEL JET
WILL ALSO BE LOCATED ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC THAT SHOULD
ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
ACROSS THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND SHIFT SLOWLY EAST FROM THERE...REACHING THE DC METRO
THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER AND DEW POINTS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S IN MANY AREAS.
SUNSHINE WILL ALSO PREDOMINATE WEDNESDAY...BUT AN APPROACHING
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL CAUSE CLOUDS TO INCREASE BY
THURSDAY MORNING. AS THIS WAVE APPROACHES DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY...RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN
TO ENCROACH FROM WEST TO EAST. CLOUDS WILL TEND TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER ON THURSDAY BUT DEW POINTS WILL RISE
BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 60S IN MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF THE TIMING OF A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE
TRACK AND STRENGTH STILL DIFFERS FROM MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO
RUN. FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN A PSEUDO WARM AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND ON IF THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA PASSES NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE AREA.

THE LOW WILL PASS EAST AND OUT TO SEA...LIKELY BRINGING THE FRONT
WITH IT BY THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN OVER THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. SHRA/TSRA ARE
POSSIBLE MRB TONIGHT. ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
AND COVERAGE SEEMS TO BE ISOLATED. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE AT BWI/MTN
TUES AFTERNOON. SRLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TERMINALS TONIGHT.
WINDS SHOULD BECOME WESTERLY TUESDAY.

VFR TUE NIGHT-THU MORNING ALL TERMINALS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT.

SUB-VFR LIKELY IN SHRA/ISO TSRA THU AFT-FRI AS LOW PRES MOVES
ACROSS. WIND SPEED/DIRECTION FORECAST UNCERTAIN WITH LOW MOVING
VERY NEAR THE AREA. VFR SHOULD RETURN ALONG W/ NWLY FLOW AROUND 10
KT SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
SRLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON THE WATERS AND SCA CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL LIKELY SUBSIDE ON THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TIDAL
POTOMAC TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WATERS MAINLY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE WATERS TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME STORMS MAY
BECOME STRONG AND SMW MAY BE WARRENTED.

SUB SCA WINDS WITH DRY CONDITIONS TUE NIGHT-THU MORNING UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE.

WIND FORECAST OVER THE WATERS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN THURSDAY AFT
THRU FRIDAY DUE TO LOW PRESSURE PASSING VERY NEAR OR OVERHEAD.
HOWEVER...SOME GUSTS IN SOUTHERLY CHANNELING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY IF THE LOW TRACK PASSES
FURTHER NORTH. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO LIKELY
OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES REMAIN BELOW A HALF FOOT THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ELEVATE
TIDAL ANOMALIES THROUGH TONIGHT. WATER LEVELS MAY COME CLOSE TO
MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS FOR SENSITIVE AREAS AROUND HIGH TIDE
TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO KEEP WATER LEVELS BELOW THOSE MINOR
THRESHOLDS...WHICH MAKES SENSE SINCE THIS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT WEST OF SOUTH LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WATER LEVELS WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED...SINCE IT WILL BE CLOSE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ530-531-538-
     539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     540>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...RCM
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...HAS/RCM/DFH
MARINE...HAS/RCM/DFH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RCM



000
FXUS61 KLWX 031906
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
306 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDES EASTWARD ALONG IT. THIS LOW WILL CLEAR THE AREA FRIDAY
TAKING THE FRONT WITH IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT
AND DOMINATE OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED IN QUEBEC THIS AFTERNOON WHILE A COLD
FRONT STRETCHES INTO THE MIDWEST. A BERMUDA HIGH PERSISTS TO THE
EAST. A SFC TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC.

TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS THE REGION. A
CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED IN VICINITY OF THE SFC TROUGH MAINLY ACROSS
SE VA THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ACROSS
THE TIDEWATER REGION WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE 1-2K J/KG AND DEWPTS
ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70. FURTHER NORTH...DEWPTS ARE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AND IT HAS TAKEN MORE TIME TO DEVELOP A CU
FIELD. LITTLE FORCING WILL LIMIT CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.

THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE EASTWARD THIS EVENING
AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. ISO-SCT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS BUT MOST SHOULD STAY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND THEREFORE
THE POTENTIAL FOR A THUNDERSTORM EXISTS OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. FCST MIN TEMPS RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO THE LOW TO MID 70S ALONG AND EAST OF
I-95.

THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR TUESDAY. COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT BUT WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE FRONT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON TUESDAY
EAST OF I-95 WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS SOUTHERN MD AND
SURROUNDING WATERS. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL OF 2-3K J/KG
OF INSTABILITY AND GT 30KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. AN UPPER LEVEL JET
WILL ALSO BE LOCATED ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC THAT SHOULD
ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
ACROSS THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND SHIFT SLOWLY EAST FROM THERE...REACHING THE DC METRO
THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER AND DEW POINTS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S IN MANY AREAS.
SUNSHINE WILL ALSO PREDOMINATE WEDNESDAY...BUT AN APPROACHING
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL CAUSE CLOUDS TO INCREASE BY
THURSDAY MORNING. AS THIS WAVE APPROACHES DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY...RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN
TO ENCROACH FROM WEST TO EAST. CLOUDS WILL TEND TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER ON THURSDAY BUT DEW POINTS WILL RISE
BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 60S IN MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF THE TIMING OF A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE
TRACK AND STRENGTH STILL DIFFERS FROM MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO
RUN. FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN A PSEUDO WARM AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND ON IF THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA PASSES NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE AREA.

THE LOW WILL PASS EAST AND OUT TO SEA...LIKELY BRINGING THE FRONT
WITH IT BY THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN OVER THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. SHRA/TSRA ARE
POSSIBLE MRB TONIGHT. ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
AND COVERAGE SEEMS TO BE ISOLATED. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE AT BWI/MTN
TUES AFTERNOON. SRLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TERMINALS TONIGHT.
WINDS SHOULD BECOME WESTERLY TUESDAY.

VFR TUE NIGHT-THU MORNING ALL TERMINALS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT.

SUB-VFR LIKELY IN SHRA/ISO TSRA THU AFT-FRI AS LOW PRES MOVES
ACROSS. WIND SPEED/DIRECTION FORECAST UNCERTAIN WITH LOW MOVING
VERY NEAR THE AREA. VFR SHOULD RETURN ALONG W/ NWLY FLOW AROUND 10
KT SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
SRLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON THE WATERS AND SCA CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL LIKELY SUBSIDE ON THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TIDAL
POTOMAC TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WATERS MAINLY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE WATERS TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME STORMS MAY
BECOME STRONG AND SMW MAY BE WARRENTED.

SUB SCA WINDS WITH DRY CONDITIONS TUE NIGHT-THU MORNING UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE.

WIND FORECAST OVER THE WATERS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN THURSDAY AFT
THRU FRIDAY DUE TO LOW PRESSURE PASSING VERY NEAR OR OVERHEAD.
HOWEVER...SOME GUSTS IN SOUTHERLY CHANNELING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY IF THE LOW TRACK PASSES
FURTHER NORTH. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO LIKELY
OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES REMAIN BELOW A HALF FOOT THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ELEVATE
TIDAL ANOMALIES THROUGH TONIGHT. WATER LEVELS MAY COME CLOSE TO
MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS FOR SENSITIVE AREAS AROUND HIGH TIDE
TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO KEEP WATER LEVELS BELOW THOSE MINOR
THRESHOLDS...WHICH MAKES SENSE SINCE THIS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT WEST OF SOUTH LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WATER LEVELS WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED...SINCE IT WILL BE CLOSE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ530-531-538-
     539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     540>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...RCM
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...HAS/RCM/DFH
MARINE...HAS/RCM/DFH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RCM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 031826
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
226 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY PROVIDING MAINLY
DRY WEATHER. A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION BY
TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT MIDWEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG
THE FRONT BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT MONDAY...

ADJUSTED THE CLOUD COVER TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS AND REMOVED THE
LOW CHANCE POPS THAT WERE IN FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALL OTHER
NEAR TERM FORECAST DETAILS FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION REMAIN INTACT.

AS OF 500 AM EDT MONDAY...

FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR COURTESY OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION. THIS DOME OF FAIR WEATHER IS
GRADUALLY FADING PER DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
OOZING NORTH...AND A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO DRAW HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE REGION...BUT LACK OF
FORCING WILL KEEP POPS AT A MINIMUM. MAIN THREAT FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ALONG THE APPROACHING
FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA...WV
COUNTIES...TOWARD SUNSET. MODELS INSIST THAT ACTIVITY WILL DRY UP
AS IT TRIES TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THE LEE TROF OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CWA...PIEDMONT COUNTIES...THIS AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE
LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE A MOSTLY SUNNY...VERY
WARM AND MAINLY DRY AFTERNOON. 85H TEMPS OF +20 DEG C SHOULD
PROMOTE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...AND INTO THE LOWER 90S ALONG AND EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FEET SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY IN THE
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT MONDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LESS PRONOUNCED OVER THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH MID WEEK...ALLOWING WINDS ALOFT TO BECOME
GENERALLY WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC...THEREBY OPENING OUR
AREA TO THE APPROACH OF DISTURBANCES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
MIDWEST.

ONE DISTURBANCE PASSING NEAR THE OHIO RIVER EARLY TUESDAY WILL HELP
PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY. WITH
ONLY MODEST MOISTURE RETURNING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...BELIEVE THAT
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING WITH AFTERNOON HEATING
WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOUND SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 460. THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR OUR AREA TO THE SOUTH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH POST FRONTAL NORTHWESTERLY WINDFLOW HELPING TO
DIMINISH ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MAKE FOR DRY
CONDITIONS MOST AREAS FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH PERHAPS A FEW PULSE
VARIETY SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AGAIN...BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FOUND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
460...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHLANDS OF NORTH CAROLINA WHERE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE RIDGETOPS MAY TRIGGER BETTER SLIGHTLY COVERAGE
OF CONVECTION IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT WAVES OF ENERGY RIDING AHEAD OF
THE LOW WILL PASS ACROSS OUR AREA...AND SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO LIFT BACK TO THE
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

THE LOW WILL PUSH UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY. EXPECT TO
START THE DAY WITH ONLY SPOTTY RAIN ACTIVITY...HOWEVER SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE DURING THE EVENING AS THE LOW
APPROACHES THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. THE LOW WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF
OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE
MOUNTAINS BEFORE DAWN. OF NOTE IS THE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
MODELS IN THE INTENSITY OF THE LOW AS IT PASSES OUR AREA. THE GFS
MODEL IS FAR WEAKER THAN THE ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS IN ITS DEPICTION
OF THE LOW...WITH THE STRONGER SOLUTIONS INDICATING A THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE NIGHT. RIGHT NOW...BELIEVE THE ECMWF/
CANADIAN SOLUTIONS ARE A LITTLE TOO STRONG GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR
AND LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...SO FOR NOW WILL STICK CLOSER TO
THE WEAKER GFS SOLUTION AND SIMPLY CONTINUE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION
OF THIS SYSTEM IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT SUNDAY...

TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE PERIOD
AS THE REGION GETS CAUGHT UNDER THE SURFACE-850 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE
AND WITHIN A NEARBY FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHED BACK INTO THE MIDWEST.
STRONGER ENERGY ALOFT DROPPING OVER THE CENTRAL STATES UPPER RIDGE
WILL THEN START TO DIG OUT ANOTHER RATHER STRONG 5H TROUGH TO THE NW
FRIDAY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE HELPING TO DRIVE THE NEXT
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY FRIDAY EVENING.

SIMILAR TO THE LAST WEEK OR TWO...APPEARS ANOTHER SURGE OF MUCH
DRIER/COOLER AIR LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT NEXT WEEKEND AS YET ANOTHER
5H TROUGH CARVES ITSELF OUT ACROSS THE EAST. GUIDANCE EVEN COOLER
ALOFT WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN PROGGED 850 MB TEMPS AS COOL AS +12C
MOUNTAINS BUT MAY BE TOO COOL THAT FAR OUT. HOWEVER STILL ENOUGH TO
DROP HIGHS BACK IN THE 70S MOUNTAINS AND ONLY LOW/MID 80S OUT EAST
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS/WEDGES IN FROM THE NORTH. RESIDUAL POPS A
BIT TRICKY TOWARD DAYS 6/7 BUT SHOULD BE DRIER WITH PERHAPS SOME
LEFTOVER UPSLOPE SHOWERS WEST SATURDAY AND ONLY ISOLATED FAR
SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT MONDAY...

THERE ARE A LOT OF SUBTLE FEATURES TO CONSIDER THAT MAKE FOR SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS TAF PACKAGE. THE REGION IS CURRENTLY BETWEEN
SYSTEMS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH A
TROF/BOUNDARY TO OUR EAST. RADAR SHOES THAT STORMS HAVE FIRED
ALONG THE TROF/BOUNDARY EAST OF THE AREA AND BELIEVE ANY
REDEVELOPMENT FURTHER WEST WILL BE ISOLATED AND NOT WORTH A VCTS
MENTION...AND MESO MODELS INDICATE ANY ACTIVITY APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 00Z. THIS WILL YIELD VFR
TAFS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD.

THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY IN THE MESO MODELS AS TO WHEN ACTIVITY
WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST. BELIEVE THE MOST LIKELY TIMING IS
FOR ACTIVITY TO ARRIVE NO EARLIER THAN 06Z AND BE DIMINISHING AS
IT APPROACHES. WILL INTRODUCE AN MVFR CIG AT KBLF/KLWB BUT KEEP
VFR CLOUDS ELSEWHERE.

THE ANTICIPATED CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION WILL COMPLICATE THE FOG
FORECAST TONIGHT. TO THE EAST CONDITIONS SHOULD FAVOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND SOME THIN FOG DEVELOPMENT. FOG AND STRATUS WAS NOT
TOO FAR OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AND INDICATIONS ARE THAT
KDAN WILL GET INTO SOME MVFR FOG AND SOME SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS
TOWARD DAYBREAK. CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING WEST
OF THE RIDGE BUT THE EXACT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL
PLAY A BIG ROLE IN FOG POTENTIAL. CURRENTLY FEEL CONDITIONS WILL
NOT FAVOR FOG AND WILL OMIT FROM TAFS THIS PACKAGE. IF UPSTREAM
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION ARE LESS THAN ANTICIPATED EARLY TONIGHT THIS
WILL TIP THE SCALES IN FAVOR OF FOG AND IT MAY BECOME NECESSARY TO
ADD MVFR CONDITIONS AT KBLF/KBCB WITH SOME IFR/LIFR AT KLWB.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW
AND EXPECT SOME SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD...BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND LOCATION
WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF TS/SHRA WITH THIS PACKAGE.

EXPECT WINDS TO BE WESTERLY WITH SOME LOW LEVEL GUSTS POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY TOMORROW AS WINDS BECOME MORE NWLY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC FOR MID WEEK WHICH COULD
BRING A BIT MORE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATER
WEDNESDAY AND A BETTER CHANCE THURSDAY. THE THREAT OF SUB-VFR
REMAINS LOW UNTIL THURSDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL FOG POTENTIAL
AT KLWB/KBCB EACH MORNING BETWEEN 09-13Z.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...CF/PM
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...MBS/PM



000
FXUS61 KRNK 031826
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
226 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY PROVIDING MAINLY
DRY WEATHER. A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION BY
TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT MIDWEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG
THE FRONT BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT MONDAY...

ADJUSTED THE CLOUD COVER TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS AND REMOVED THE
LOW CHANCE POPS THAT WERE IN FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALL OTHER
NEAR TERM FORECAST DETAILS FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION REMAIN INTACT.

AS OF 500 AM EDT MONDAY...

FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR COURTESY OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION. THIS DOME OF FAIR WEATHER IS
GRADUALLY FADING PER DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
OOZING NORTH...AND A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO DRAW HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE REGION...BUT LACK OF
FORCING WILL KEEP POPS AT A MINIMUM. MAIN THREAT FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ALONG THE APPROACHING
FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA...WV
COUNTIES...TOWARD SUNSET. MODELS INSIST THAT ACTIVITY WILL DRY UP
AS IT TRIES TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THE LEE TROF OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CWA...PIEDMONT COUNTIES...THIS AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE
LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE A MOSTLY SUNNY...VERY
WARM AND MAINLY DRY AFTERNOON. 85H TEMPS OF +20 DEG C SHOULD
PROMOTE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...AND INTO THE LOWER 90S ALONG AND EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FEET SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY IN THE
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT MONDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LESS PRONOUNCED OVER THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH MID WEEK...ALLOWING WINDS ALOFT TO BECOME
GENERALLY WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC...THEREBY OPENING OUR
AREA TO THE APPROACH OF DISTURBANCES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
MIDWEST.

ONE DISTURBANCE PASSING NEAR THE OHIO RIVER EARLY TUESDAY WILL HELP
PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY. WITH
ONLY MODEST MOISTURE RETURNING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...BELIEVE THAT
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING WITH AFTERNOON HEATING
WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOUND SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 460. THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR OUR AREA TO THE SOUTH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH POST FRONTAL NORTHWESTERLY WINDFLOW HELPING TO
DIMINISH ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MAKE FOR DRY
CONDITIONS MOST AREAS FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH PERHAPS A FEW PULSE
VARIETY SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AGAIN...BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FOUND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
460...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHLANDS OF NORTH CAROLINA WHERE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE RIDGETOPS MAY TRIGGER BETTER SLIGHTLY COVERAGE
OF CONVECTION IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT WAVES OF ENERGY RIDING AHEAD OF
THE LOW WILL PASS ACROSS OUR AREA...AND SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO LIFT BACK TO THE
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

THE LOW WILL PUSH UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY. EXPECT TO
START THE DAY WITH ONLY SPOTTY RAIN ACTIVITY...HOWEVER SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE DURING THE EVENING AS THE LOW
APPROACHES THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. THE LOW WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF
OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE
MOUNTAINS BEFORE DAWN. OF NOTE IS THE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
MODELS IN THE INTENSITY OF THE LOW AS IT PASSES OUR AREA. THE GFS
MODEL IS FAR WEAKER THAN THE ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS IN ITS DEPICTION
OF THE LOW...WITH THE STRONGER SOLUTIONS INDICATING A THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE NIGHT. RIGHT NOW...BELIEVE THE ECMWF/
CANADIAN SOLUTIONS ARE A LITTLE TOO STRONG GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR
AND LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...SO FOR NOW WILL STICK CLOSER TO
THE WEAKER GFS SOLUTION AND SIMPLY CONTINUE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION
OF THIS SYSTEM IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT SUNDAY...

TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE PERIOD
AS THE REGION GETS CAUGHT UNDER THE SURFACE-850 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE
AND WITHIN A NEARBY FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHED BACK INTO THE MIDWEST.
STRONGER ENERGY ALOFT DROPPING OVER THE CENTRAL STATES UPPER RIDGE
WILL THEN START TO DIG OUT ANOTHER RATHER STRONG 5H TROUGH TO THE NW
FRIDAY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE HELPING TO DRIVE THE NEXT
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY FRIDAY EVENING.

SIMILAR TO THE LAST WEEK OR TWO...APPEARS ANOTHER SURGE OF MUCH
DRIER/COOLER AIR LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT NEXT WEEKEND AS YET ANOTHER
5H TROUGH CARVES ITSELF OUT ACROSS THE EAST. GUIDANCE EVEN COOLER
ALOFT WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN PROGGED 850 MB TEMPS AS COOL AS +12C
MOUNTAINS BUT MAY BE TOO COOL THAT FAR OUT. HOWEVER STILL ENOUGH TO
DROP HIGHS BACK IN THE 70S MOUNTAINS AND ONLY LOW/MID 80S OUT EAST
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS/WEDGES IN FROM THE NORTH. RESIDUAL POPS A
BIT TRICKY TOWARD DAYS 6/7 BUT SHOULD BE DRIER WITH PERHAPS SOME
LEFTOVER UPSLOPE SHOWERS WEST SATURDAY AND ONLY ISOLATED FAR
SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT MONDAY...

THERE ARE A LOT OF SUBTLE FEATURES TO CONSIDER THAT MAKE FOR SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS TAF PACKAGE. THE REGION IS CURRENTLY BETWEEN
SYSTEMS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH A
TROF/BOUNDARY TO OUR EAST. RADAR SHOES THAT STORMS HAVE FIRED
ALONG THE TROF/BOUNDARY EAST OF THE AREA AND BELIEVE ANY
REDEVELOPMENT FURTHER WEST WILL BE ISOLATED AND NOT WORTH A VCTS
MENTION...AND MESO MODELS INDICATE ANY ACTIVITY APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 00Z. THIS WILL YIELD VFR
TAFS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD.

THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY IN THE MESO MODELS AS TO WHEN ACTIVITY
WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST. BELIEVE THE MOST LIKELY TIMING IS
FOR ACTIVITY TO ARRIVE NO EARLIER THAN 06Z AND BE DIMINISHING AS
IT APPROACHES. WILL INTRODUCE AN MVFR CIG AT KBLF/KLWB BUT KEEP
VFR CLOUDS ELSEWHERE.

THE ANTICIPATED CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION WILL COMPLICATE THE FOG
FORECAST TONIGHT. TO THE EAST CONDITIONS SHOULD FAVOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND SOME THIN FOG DEVELOPMENT. FOG AND STRATUS WAS NOT
TOO FAR OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AND INDICATIONS ARE THAT
KDAN WILL GET INTO SOME MVFR FOG AND SOME SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS
TOWARD DAYBREAK. CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING WEST
OF THE RIDGE BUT THE EXACT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL
PLAY A BIG ROLE IN FOG POTENTIAL. CURRENTLY FEEL CONDITIONS WILL
NOT FAVOR FOG AND WILL OMIT FROM TAFS THIS PACKAGE. IF UPSTREAM
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION ARE LESS THAN ANTICIPATED EARLY TONIGHT THIS
WILL TIP THE SCALES IN FAVOR OF FOG AND IT MAY BECOME NECESSARY TO
ADD MVFR CONDITIONS AT KBLF/KBCB WITH SOME IFR/LIFR AT KLWB.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW
AND EXPECT SOME SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD...BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND LOCATION
WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF TS/SHRA WITH THIS PACKAGE.

EXPECT WINDS TO BE WESTERLY WITH SOME LOW LEVEL GUSTS POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY TOMORROW AS WINDS BECOME MORE NWLY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC FOR MID WEEK WHICH COULD
BRING A BIT MORE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATER
WEDNESDAY AND A BETTER CHANCE THURSDAY. THE THREAT OF SUB-VFR
REMAINS LOW UNTIL THURSDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL FOG POTENTIAL
AT KLWB/KBCB EACH MORNING BETWEEN 09-13Z.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...CF/PM
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...MBS/PM



000
FXUS61 KRNK 031826
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
226 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY PROVIDING MAINLY
DRY WEATHER. A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION BY
TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT MIDWEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG
THE FRONT BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT MONDAY...

ADJUSTED THE CLOUD COVER TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS AND REMOVED THE
LOW CHANCE POPS THAT WERE IN FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALL OTHER
NEAR TERM FORECAST DETAILS FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION REMAIN INTACT.

AS OF 500 AM EDT MONDAY...

FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR COURTESY OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION. THIS DOME OF FAIR WEATHER IS
GRADUALLY FADING PER DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
OOZING NORTH...AND A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO DRAW HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE REGION...BUT LACK OF
FORCING WILL KEEP POPS AT A MINIMUM. MAIN THREAT FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ALONG THE APPROACHING
FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA...WV
COUNTIES...TOWARD SUNSET. MODELS INSIST THAT ACTIVITY WILL DRY UP
AS IT TRIES TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THE LEE TROF OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CWA...PIEDMONT COUNTIES...THIS AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE
LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE A MOSTLY SUNNY...VERY
WARM AND MAINLY DRY AFTERNOON. 85H TEMPS OF +20 DEG C SHOULD
PROMOTE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...AND INTO THE LOWER 90S ALONG AND EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FEET SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY IN THE
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT MONDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LESS PRONOUNCED OVER THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH MID WEEK...ALLOWING WINDS ALOFT TO BECOME
GENERALLY WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC...THEREBY OPENING OUR
AREA TO THE APPROACH OF DISTURBANCES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
MIDWEST.

ONE DISTURBANCE PASSING NEAR THE OHIO RIVER EARLY TUESDAY WILL HELP
PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY. WITH
ONLY MODEST MOISTURE RETURNING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...BELIEVE THAT
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING WITH AFTERNOON HEATING
WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOUND SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 460. THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR OUR AREA TO THE SOUTH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH POST FRONTAL NORTHWESTERLY WINDFLOW HELPING TO
DIMINISH ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MAKE FOR DRY
CONDITIONS MOST AREAS FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH PERHAPS A FEW PULSE
VARIETY SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AGAIN...BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FOUND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
460...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHLANDS OF NORTH CAROLINA WHERE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE RIDGETOPS MAY TRIGGER BETTER SLIGHTLY COVERAGE
OF CONVECTION IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT WAVES OF ENERGY RIDING AHEAD OF
THE LOW WILL PASS ACROSS OUR AREA...AND SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO LIFT BACK TO THE
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

THE LOW WILL PUSH UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY. EXPECT TO
START THE DAY WITH ONLY SPOTTY RAIN ACTIVITY...HOWEVER SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE DURING THE EVENING AS THE LOW
APPROACHES THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. THE LOW WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF
OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE
MOUNTAINS BEFORE DAWN. OF NOTE IS THE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
MODELS IN THE INTENSITY OF THE LOW AS IT PASSES OUR AREA. THE GFS
MODEL IS FAR WEAKER THAN THE ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS IN ITS DEPICTION
OF THE LOW...WITH THE STRONGER SOLUTIONS INDICATING A THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE NIGHT. RIGHT NOW...BELIEVE THE ECMWF/
CANADIAN SOLUTIONS ARE A LITTLE TOO STRONG GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR
AND LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...SO FOR NOW WILL STICK CLOSER TO
THE WEAKER GFS SOLUTION AND SIMPLY CONTINUE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION
OF THIS SYSTEM IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT SUNDAY...

TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE PERIOD
AS THE REGION GETS CAUGHT UNDER THE SURFACE-850 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE
AND WITHIN A NEARBY FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHED BACK INTO THE MIDWEST.
STRONGER ENERGY ALOFT DROPPING OVER THE CENTRAL STATES UPPER RIDGE
WILL THEN START TO DIG OUT ANOTHER RATHER STRONG 5H TROUGH TO THE NW
FRIDAY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE HELPING TO DRIVE THE NEXT
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY FRIDAY EVENING.

SIMILAR TO THE LAST WEEK OR TWO...APPEARS ANOTHER SURGE OF MUCH
DRIER/COOLER AIR LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT NEXT WEEKEND AS YET ANOTHER
5H TROUGH CARVES ITSELF OUT ACROSS THE EAST. GUIDANCE EVEN COOLER
ALOFT WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN PROGGED 850 MB TEMPS AS COOL AS +12C
MOUNTAINS BUT MAY BE TOO COOL THAT FAR OUT. HOWEVER STILL ENOUGH TO
DROP HIGHS BACK IN THE 70S MOUNTAINS AND ONLY LOW/MID 80S OUT EAST
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS/WEDGES IN FROM THE NORTH. RESIDUAL POPS A
BIT TRICKY TOWARD DAYS 6/7 BUT SHOULD BE DRIER WITH PERHAPS SOME
LEFTOVER UPSLOPE SHOWERS WEST SATURDAY AND ONLY ISOLATED FAR
SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT MONDAY...

THERE ARE A LOT OF SUBTLE FEATURES TO CONSIDER THAT MAKE FOR SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS TAF PACKAGE. THE REGION IS CURRENTLY BETWEEN
SYSTEMS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH A
TROF/BOUNDARY TO OUR EAST. RADAR SHOES THAT STORMS HAVE FIRED
ALONG THE TROF/BOUNDARY EAST OF THE AREA AND BELIEVE ANY
REDEVELOPMENT FURTHER WEST WILL BE ISOLATED AND NOT WORTH A VCTS
MENTION...AND MESO MODELS INDICATE ANY ACTIVITY APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 00Z. THIS WILL YIELD VFR
TAFS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD.

THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY IN THE MESO MODELS AS TO WHEN ACTIVITY
WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST. BELIEVE THE MOST LIKELY TIMING IS
FOR ACTIVITY TO ARRIVE NO EARLIER THAN 06Z AND BE DIMINISHING AS
IT APPROACHES. WILL INTRODUCE AN MVFR CIG AT KBLF/KLWB BUT KEEP
VFR CLOUDS ELSEWHERE.

THE ANTICIPATED CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION WILL COMPLICATE THE FOG
FORECAST TONIGHT. TO THE EAST CONDITIONS SHOULD FAVOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND SOME THIN FOG DEVELOPMENT. FOG AND STRATUS WAS NOT
TOO FAR OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AND INDICATIONS ARE THAT
KDAN WILL GET INTO SOME MVFR FOG AND SOME SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS
TOWARD DAYBREAK. CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING WEST
OF THE RIDGE BUT THE EXACT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL
PLAY A BIG ROLE IN FOG POTENTIAL. CURRENTLY FEEL CONDITIONS WILL
NOT FAVOR FOG AND WILL OMIT FROM TAFS THIS PACKAGE. IF UPSTREAM
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION ARE LESS THAN ANTICIPATED EARLY TONIGHT THIS
WILL TIP THE SCALES IN FAVOR OF FOG AND IT MAY BECOME NECESSARY TO
ADD MVFR CONDITIONS AT KBLF/KBCB WITH SOME IFR/LIFR AT KLWB.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW
AND EXPECT SOME SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD...BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND LOCATION
WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF TS/SHRA WITH THIS PACKAGE.

EXPECT WINDS TO BE WESTERLY WITH SOME LOW LEVEL GUSTS POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY TOMORROW AS WINDS BECOME MORE NWLY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC FOR MID WEEK WHICH COULD
BRING A BIT MORE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATER
WEDNESDAY AND A BETTER CHANCE THURSDAY. THE THREAT OF SUB-VFR
REMAINS LOW UNTIL THURSDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL FOG POTENTIAL
AT KLWB/KBCB EACH MORNING BETWEEN 09-13Z.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...CF/PM
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...MBS/PM



000
FXUS61 KRNK 031826
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
226 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY PROVIDING MAINLY
DRY WEATHER. A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION BY
TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT MIDWEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG
THE FRONT BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT MONDAY...

ADJUSTED THE CLOUD COVER TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS AND REMOVED THE
LOW CHANCE POPS THAT WERE IN FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALL OTHER
NEAR TERM FORECAST DETAILS FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION REMAIN INTACT.

AS OF 500 AM EDT MONDAY...

FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR COURTESY OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION. THIS DOME OF FAIR WEATHER IS
GRADUALLY FADING PER DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
OOZING NORTH...AND A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO DRAW HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE REGION...BUT LACK OF
FORCING WILL KEEP POPS AT A MINIMUM. MAIN THREAT FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ALONG THE APPROACHING
FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA...WV
COUNTIES...TOWARD SUNSET. MODELS INSIST THAT ACTIVITY WILL DRY UP
AS IT TRIES TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THE LEE TROF OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CWA...PIEDMONT COUNTIES...THIS AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE
LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE A MOSTLY SUNNY...VERY
WARM AND MAINLY DRY AFTERNOON. 85H TEMPS OF +20 DEG C SHOULD
PROMOTE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...AND INTO THE LOWER 90S ALONG AND EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FEET SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY IN THE
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT MONDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LESS PRONOUNCED OVER THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH MID WEEK...ALLOWING WINDS ALOFT TO BECOME
GENERALLY WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC...THEREBY OPENING OUR
AREA TO THE APPROACH OF DISTURBANCES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
MIDWEST.

ONE DISTURBANCE PASSING NEAR THE OHIO RIVER EARLY TUESDAY WILL HELP
PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY. WITH
ONLY MODEST MOISTURE RETURNING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...BELIEVE THAT
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING WITH AFTERNOON HEATING
WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOUND SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 460. THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR OUR AREA TO THE SOUTH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH POST FRONTAL NORTHWESTERLY WINDFLOW HELPING TO
DIMINISH ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MAKE FOR DRY
CONDITIONS MOST AREAS FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH PERHAPS A FEW PULSE
VARIETY SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AGAIN...BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FOUND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
460...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHLANDS OF NORTH CAROLINA WHERE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE RIDGETOPS MAY TRIGGER BETTER SLIGHTLY COVERAGE
OF CONVECTION IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT WAVES OF ENERGY RIDING AHEAD OF
THE LOW WILL PASS ACROSS OUR AREA...AND SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO LIFT BACK TO THE
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

THE LOW WILL PUSH UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY. EXPECT TO
START THE DAY WITH ONLY SPOTTY RAIN ACTIVITY...HOWEVER SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE DURING THE EVENING AS THE LOW
APPROACHES THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. THE LOW WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF
OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE
MOUNTAINS BEFORE DAWN. OF NOTE IS THE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
MODELS IN THE INTENSITY OF THE LOW AS IT PASSES OUR AREA. THE GFS
MODEL IS FAR WEAKER THAN THE ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS IN ITS DEPICTION
OF THE LOW...WITH THE STRONGER SOLUTIONS INDICATING A THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE NIGHT. RIGHT NOW...BELIEVE THE ECMWF/
CANADIAN SOLUTIONS ARE A LITTLE TOO STRONG GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR
AND LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...SO FOR NOW WILL STICK CLOSER TO
THE WEAKER GFS SOLUTION AND SIMPLY CONTINUE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION
OF THIS SYSTEM IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT SUNDAY...

TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE PERIOD
AS THE REGION GETS CAUGHT UNDER THE SURFACE-850 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE
AND WITHIN A NEARBY FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHED BACK INTO THE MIDWEST.
STRONGER ENERGY ALOFT DROPPING OVER THE CENTRAL STATES UPPER RIDGE
WILL THEN START TO DIG OUT ANOTHER RATHER STRONG 5H TROUGH TO THE NW
FRIDAY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE HELPING TO DRIVE THE NEXT
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY FRIDAY EVENING.

SIMILAR TO THE LAST WEEK OR TWO...APPEARS ANOTHER SURGE OF MUCH
DRIER/COOLER AIR LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT NEXT WEEKEND AS YET ANOTHER
5H TROUGH CARVES ITSELF OUT ACROSS THE EAST. GUIDANCE EVEN COOLER
ALOFT WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN PROGGED 850 MB TEMPS AS COOL AS +12C
MOUNTAINS BUT MAY BE TOO COOL THAT FAR OUT. HOWEVER STILL ENOUGH TO
DROP HIGHS BACK IN THE 70S MOUNTAINS AND ONLY LOW/MID 80S OUT EAST
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS/WEDGES IN FROM THE NORTH. RESIDUAL POPS A
BIT TRICKY TOWARD DAYS 6/7 BUT SHOULD BE DRIER WITH PERHAPS SOME
LEFTOVER UPSLOPE SHOWERS WEST SATURDAY AND ONLY ISOLATED FAR
SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT MONDAY...

THERE ARE A LOT OF SUBTLE FEATURES TO CONSIDER THAT MAKE FOR SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS TAF PACKAGE. THE REGION IS CURRENTLY BETWEEN
SYSTEMS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH A
TROF/BOUNDARY TO OUR EAST. RADAR SHOES THAT STORMS HAVE FIRED
ALONG THE TROF/BOUNDARY EAST OF THE AREA AND BELIEVE ANY
REDEVELOPMENT FURTHER WEST WILL BE ISOLATED AND NOT WORTH A VCTS
MENTION...AND MESO MODELS INDICATE ANY ACTIVITY APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 00Z. THIS WILL YIELD VFR
TAFS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD.

THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY IN THE MESO MODELS AS TO WHEN ACTIVITY
WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST. BELIEVE THE MOST LIKELY TIMING IS
FOR ACTIVITY TO ARRIVE NO EARLIER THAN 06Z AND BE DIMINISHING AS
IT APPROACHES. WILL INTRODUCE AN MVFR CIG AT KBLF/KLWB BUT KEEP
VFR CLOUDS ELSEWHERE.

THE ANTICIPATED CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION WILL COMPLICATE THE FOG
FORECAST TONIGHT. TO THE EAST CONDITIONS SHOULD FAVOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND SOME THIN FOG DEVELOPMENT. FOG AND STRATUS WAS NOT
TOO FAR OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AND INDICATIONS ARE THAT
KDAN WILL GET INTO SOME MVFR FOG AND SOME SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS
TOWARD DAYBREAK. CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING WEST
OF THE RIDGE BUT THE EXACT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL
PLAY A BIG ROLE IN FOG POTENTIAL. CURRENTLY FEEL CONDITIONS WILL
NOT FAVOR FOG AND WILL OMIT FROM TAFS THIS PACKAGE. IF UPSTREAM
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION ARE LESS THAN ANTICIPATED EARLY TONIGHT THIS
WILL TIP THE SCALES IN FAVOR OF FOG AND IT MAY BECOME NECESSARY TO
ADD MVFR CONDITIONS AT KBLF/KBCB WITH SOME IFR/LIFR AT KLWB.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW
AND EXPECT SOME SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD...BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND LOCATION
WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF TS/SHRA WITH THIS PACKAGE.

EXPECT WINDS TO BE WESTERLY WITH SOME LOW LEVEL GUSTS POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY TOMORROW AS WINDS BECOME MORE NWLY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC FOR MID WEEK WHICH COULD
BRING A BIT MORE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATER
WEDNESDAY AND A BETTER CHANCE THURSDAY. THE THREAT OF SUB-VFR
REMAINS LOW UNTIL THURSDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL FOG POTENTIAL
AT KLWB/KBCB EACH MORNING BETWEEN 09-13Z.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...CF/PM
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...MBS/PM



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031803
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
203 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN STALLS ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHWRS DVLPNG ERLY THIS AFTRN AS WEAK MID LVL TROF DRIFTS SE ACROSS
THE FA. ADDED SLGHT CHC POPS ACROSS SRN HALF OF FA TO ACCOUNT FOR
THERE. OTW..NO CHANGES MADE.

ADJUSTED GRIDS A BIT PER CRNT TRENDS. PCPN NOW WELL SOUTH OF THE
RGN SO DROPPED POPS ACROSS NE NC ZONES FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS. MSAS
INDCTG SFC BNDRY LCTD ACROSS SERN VA SNAKING ITS WAY SW INTO THE
NC PIEDMONT. HIGH RES DATA SUGGESTS SCT CONVECTION DVLPNG ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THIS BNDRY AFTR 18Z...SO KEPT 20-30 POP THERE...
HIGHEST IVOF ALREMARLE SND. CDFRNT REMAINS WELL NW OF FA TDY WITH
SFC TROF DVLMNG OUT AHEAD OF IT. LTST DATA SHOWS LITTLE IF ANY
SPRT FOR CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE. HOT AND A BIT MORE HUMID
WITH HIGHS IN THE L-M90S...XCPT U80S AT THE BEACHES. HEAT INDEX
VALUES XPCTD TO REMAIN BLO 100.

PVS DSCN:
M CLR TO PT CLOUDY TONIGHT. WEAK SHEAR AND BEST FORCING/MOISTURE
REMAINING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANY LINGERING
CONVECTION TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SS. LOWS U60S-L70S EXCEPT
M70S BEACH AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ERN TROUGH SHARPENS A BIT MORE TO ALLOW THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO DROP ACROSS THE FA FROM THE N. BEST DYNAMICS/FORCING
LOOK TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER, LLVL CONVERGENCE,
MOISTURE/RH POOLING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY ALL SEEM TO POINT TOWARD SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING,
WITH BEST AREAL COVERAGE EXPECTED FROM CENTRAL VA OVER TO THE NRN
NECK AND ERN SHORE, WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED. OTW, WILL
CARRY SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE SE FARTHER AWAY FROM BETTER FORCING
AND LIFT. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN 90-95...BUT WL FEEL A BIT HOTTER WITH
INCREASED HUMIDITY. SLIGHTLY COOLER U80S TO AROUND 90 AGAIN AT
COASTAL/BEACH AREAS. ANY CONVECTION DISSIPATES AFTER SS. MILD TUE
NIGHT W/LOWS U60S-M70S.

BOUNDARY WASHES OUT / DISSIPATES OVER THE REGION WED/THU, AS FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL. HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC
POP FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION, AS
ADDITIONAL WEAK PERTURBATIONS PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. CONTINUED
VERY WARM AND STILL MODERATELY HUMID WITH HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE ELEVATED EACH DAY THRU THE PERIOD AND SHOULD
TOP OUT ~ 100 DEG F TUE/WED WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS
INTERIOR SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK TROF OF LO PRES WAS STRETCHING FM ESE MD SW THRU EAST-CNTRL
VA AND INTO NCNTRL NC THIS AFTN. RDR INDICATED ISLTD SHOWERS AND
TSTMS DEVELOPING ALNG THE BNDRY FM CNTRL VA (JUST ENE RIC) SW INTO
NCNTRL NC. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY ONLY LAST INTO EARLY THIS
EVENG BEFORE DISSIPATING. OTHERWISE...MORE PCPN WAS ALNG THE NC
OUTER BANKS CLOSER TO A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BNDRY. DID NOT PUT ANY
PCPN IN THE 18Z TAFS...AND JUST EXPECT VFR CONDS WITH SCT SC AND
AC FOR THE TAF SITES THRU THE TAF PERIOD. ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL
THEN SLOWLY PUSH INTO AND ACRS THE REGION TUE INTO WED
MORNG...PROVIDING SLGT TO SML CHCS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS. BREEZY SW
WINDS PERSIST ON TUE...BECOMING MORE W-NW ON WED. CONDITIONS
BECOME MORE UNSETTLED LATER THU THRU FRI...AS LO PRES AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AFFECT THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. PREDOMINANTLY S-SW WINDS
WILL AVERAGE AOB 15 KT...BECOMING MORE BREEZY BY THIS AFTN.
LOW-END SCA WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER THE BAY/SOUND AND COASTAL
WATERS NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER...PERSISTING INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 25 KT OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL WATERS.
1-2 FT WAVES BUILD TO 3-4 FT THIS EVENING...AND 2-3 FT SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT. WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL BELOW 15 KT
AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER SEAS WILL BE SLOW
TO DROP BELOW 5 FT UNTIL EARLY AFTN.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE
WITH THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS
BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS. BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY...
BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT (AOB 10 KT) ON WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...EXPECT S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS
2-3 FT (UP TO 4 FT AT TIMES NEAR 20 NM).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ633-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...BMD



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031803
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
203 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN STALLS ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHWRS DVLPNG ERLY THIS AFTRN AS WEAK MID LVL TROF DRIFTS SE ACROSS
THE FA. ADDED SLGHT CHC POPS ACROSS SRN HALF OF FA TO ACCOUNT FOR
THERE. OTW..NO CHANGES MADE.

ADJUSTED GRIDS A BIT PER CRNT TRENDS. PCPN NOW WELL SOUTH OF THE
RGN SO DROPPED POPS ACROSS NE NC ZONES FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS. MSAS
INDCTG SFC BNDRY LCTD ACROSS SERN VA SNAKING ITS WAY SW INTO THE
NC PIEDMONT. HIGH RES DATA SUGGESTS SCT CONVECTION DVLPNG ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THIS BNDRY AFTR 18Z...SO KEPT 20-30 POP THERE...
HIGHEST IVOF ALREMARLE SND. CDFRNT REMAINS WELL NW OF FA TDY WITH
SFC TROF DVLMNG OUT AHEAD OF IT. LTST DATA SHOWS LITTLE IF ANY
SPRT FOR CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE. HOT AND A BIT MORE HUMID
WITH HIGHS IN THE L-M90S...XCPT U80S AT THE BEACHES. HEAT INDEX
VALUES XPCTD TO REMAIN BLO 100.

PVS DSCN:
M CLR TO PT CLOUDY TONIGHT. WEAK SHEAR AND BEST FORCING/MOISTURE
REMAINING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANY LINGERING
CONVECTION TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SS. LOWS U60S-L70S EXCEPT
M70S BEACH AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ERN TROUGH SHARPENS A BIT MORE TO ALLOW THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO DROP ACROSS THE FA FROM THE N. BEST DYNAMICS/FORCING
LOOK TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER, LLVL CONVERGENCE,
MOISTURE/RH POOLING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY ALL SEEM TO POINT TOWARD SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING,
WITH BEST AREAL COVERAGE EXPECTED FROM CENTRAL VA OVER TO THE NRN
NECK AND ERN SHORE, WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED. OTW, WILL
CARRY SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE SE FARTHER AWAY FROM BETTER FORCING
AND LIFT. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN 90-95...BUT WL FEEL A BIT HOTTER WITH
INCREASED HUMIDITY. SLIGHTLY COOLER U80S TO AROUND 90 AGAIN AT
COASTAL/BEACH AREAS. ANY CONVECTION DISSIPATES AFTER SS. MILD TUE
NIGHT W/LOWS U60S-M70S.

BOUNDARY WASHES OUT / DISSIPATES OVER THE REGION WED/THU, AS FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL. HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC
POP FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION, AS
ADDITIONAL WEAK PERTURBATIONS PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. CONTINUED
VERY WARM AND STILL MODERATELY HUMID WITH HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE ELEVATED EACH DAY THRU THE PERIOD AND SHOULD
TOP OUT ~ 100 DEG F TUE/WED WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS
INTERIOR SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK TROF OF LO PRES WAS STRETCHING FM ESE MD SW THRU EAST-CNTRL
VA AND INTO NCNTRL NC THIS AFTN. RDR INDICATED ISLTD SHOWERS AND
TSTMS DEVELOPING ALNG THE BNDRY FM CNTRL VA (JUST ENE RIC) SW INTO
NCNTRL NC. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY ONLY LAST INTO EARLY THIS
EVENG BEFORE DISSIPATING. OTHERWISE...MORE PCPN WAS ALNG THE NC
OUTER BANKS CLOSER TO A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BNDRY. DID NOT PUT ANY
PCPN IN THE 18Z TAFS...AND JUST EXPECT VFR CONDS WITH SCT SC AND
AC FOR THE TAF SITES THRU THE TAF PERIOD. ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL
THEN SLOWLY PUSH INTO AND ACRS THE REGION TUE INTO WED
MORNG...PROVIDING SLGT TO SML CHCS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS. BREEZY SW
WINDS PERSIST ON TUE...BECOMING MORE W-NW ON WED. CONDITIONS
BECOME MORE UNSETTLED LATER THU THRU FRI...AS LO PRES AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AFFECT THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. PREDOMINANTLY S-SW WINDS
WILL AVERAGE AOB 15 KT...BECOMING MORE BREEZY BY THIS AFTN.
LOW-END SCA WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER THE BAY/SOUND AND COASTAL
WATERS NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER...PERSISTING INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 25 KT OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL WATERS.
1-2 FT WAVES BUILD TO 3-4 FT THIS EVENING...AND 2-3 FT SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT. WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL BELOW 15 KT
AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER SEAS WILL BE SLOW
TO DROP BELOW 5 FT UNTIL EARLY AFTN.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE
WITH THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS
BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS. BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY...
BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT (AOB 10 KT) ON WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...EXPECT S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS
2-3 FT (UP TO 4 FT AT TIMES NEAR 20 NM).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ633-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...BMD



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031803
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
203 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN STALLS ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHWRS DVLPNG ERLY THIS AFTRN AS WEAK MID LVL TROF DRIFTS SE ACROSS
THE FA. ADDED SLGHT CHC POPS ACROSS SRN HALF OF FA TO ACCOUNT FOR
THERE. OTW..NO CHANGES MADE.

ADJUSTED GRIDS A BIT PER CRNT TRENDS. PCPN NOW WELL SOUTH OF THE
RGN SO DROPPED POPS ACROSS NE NC ZONES FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS. MSAS
INDCTG SFC BNDRY LCTD ACROSS SERN VA SNAKING ITS WAY SW INTO THE
NC PIEDMONT. HIGH RES DATA SUGGESTS SCT CONVECTION DVLPNG ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THIS BNDRY AFTR 18Z...SO KEPT 20-30 POP THERE...
HIGHEST IVOF ALREMARLE SND. CDFRNT REMAINS WELL NW OF FA TDY WITH
SFC TROF DVLMNG OUT AHEAD OF IT. LTST DATA SHOWS LITTLE IF ANY
SPRT FOR CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE. HOT AND A BIT MORE HUMID
WITH HIGHS IN THE L-M90S...XCPT U80S AT THE BEACHES. HEAT INDEX
VALUES XPCTD TO REMAIN BLO 100.

PVS DSCN:
M CLR TO PT CLOUDY TONIGHT. WEAK SHEAR AND BEST FORCING/MOISTURE
REMAINING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANY LINGERING
CONVECTION TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SS. LOWS U60S-L70S EXCEPT
M70S BEACH AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ERN TROUGH SHARPENS A BIT MORE TO ALLOW THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO DROP ACROSS THE FA FROM THE N. BEST DYNAMICS/FORCING
LOOK TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER, LLVL CONVERGENCE,
MOISTURE/RH POOLING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY ALL SEEM TO POINT TOWARD SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING,
WITH BEST AREAL COVERAGE EXPECTED FROM CENTRAL VA OVER TO THE NRN
NECK AND ERN SHORE, WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED. OTW, WILL
CARRY SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE SE FARTHER AWAY FROM BETTER FORCING
AND LIFT. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN 90-95...BUT WL FEEL A BIT HOTTER WITH
INCREASED HUMIDITY. SLIGHTLY COOLER U80S TO AROUND 90 AGAIN AT
COASTAL/BEACH AREAS. ANY CONVECTION DISSIPATES AFTER SS. MILD TUE
NIGHT W/LOWS U60S-M70S.

BOUNDARY WASHES OUT / DISSIPATES OVER THE REGION WED/THU, AS FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL. HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC
POP FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION, AS
ADDITIONAL WEAK PERTURBATIONS PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. CONTINUED
VERY WARM AND STILL MODERATELY HUMID WITH HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE ELEVATED EACH DAY THRU THE PERIOD AND SHOULD
TOP OUT ~ 100 DEG F TUE/WED WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS
INTERIOR SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK TROF OF LO PRES WAS STRETCHING FM ESE MD SW THRU EAST-CNTRL
VA AND INTO NCNTRL NC THIS AFTN. RDR INDICATED ISLTD SHOWERS AND
TSTMS DEVELOPING ALNG THE BNDRY FM CNTRL VA (JUST ENE RIC) SW INTO
NCNTRL NC. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY ONLY LAST INTO EARLY THIS
EVENG BEFORE DISSIPATING. OTHERWISE...MORE PCPN WAS ALNG THE NC
OUTER BANKS CLOSER TO A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BNDRY. DID NOT PUT ANY
PCPN IN THE 18Z TAFS...AND JUST EXPECT VFR CONDS WITH SCT SC AND
AC FOR THE TAF SITES THRU THE TAF PERIOD. ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL
THEN SLOWLY PUSH INTO AND ACRS THE REGION TUE INTO WED
MORNG...PROVIDING SLGT TO SML CHCS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS. BREEZY SW
WINDS PERSIST ON TUE...BECOMING MORE W-NW ON WED. CONDITIONS
BECOME MORE UNSETTLED LATER THU THRU FRI...AS LO PRES AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AFFECT THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. PREDOMINANTLY S-SW WINDS
WILL AVERAGE AOB 15 KT...BECOMING MORE BREEZY BY THIS AFTN.
LOW-END SCA WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER THE BAY/SOUND AND COASTAL
WATERS NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER...PERSISTING INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 25 KT OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL WATERS.
1-2 FT WAVES BUILD TO 3-4 FT THIS EVENING...AND 2-3 FT SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT. WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL BELOW 15 KT
AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER SEAS WILL BE SLOW
TO DROP BELOW 5 FT UNTIL EARLY AFTN.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE
WITH THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS
BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS. BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY...
BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT (AOB 10 KT) ON WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...EXPECT S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS
2-3 FT (UP TO 4 FT AT TIMES NEAR 20 NM).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ633-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...BMD



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031803
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
203 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN STALLS ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHWRS DVLPNG ERLY THIS AFTRN AS WEAK MID LVL TROF DRIFTS SE ACROSS
THE FA. ADDED SLGHT CHC POPS ACROSS SRN HALF OF FA TO ACCOUNT FOR
THERE. OTW..NO CHANGES MADE.

ADJUSTED GRIDS A BIT PER CRNT TRENDS. PCPN NOW WELL SOUTH OF THE
RGN SO DROPPED POPS ACROSS NE NC ZONES FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS. MSAS
INDCTG SFC BNDRY LCTD ACROSS SERN VA SNAKING ITS WAY SW INTO THE
NC PIEDMONT. HIGH RES DATA SUGGESTS SCT CONVECTION DVLPNG ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THIS BNDRY AFTR 18Z...SO KEPT 20-30 POP THERE...
HIGHEST IVOF ALREMARLE SND. CDFRNT REMAINS WELL NW OF FA TDY WITH
SFC TROF DVLMNG OUT AHEAD OF IT. LTST DATA SHOWS LITTLE IF ANY
SPRT FOR CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE. HOT AND A BIT MORE HUMID
WITH HIGHS IN THE L-M90S...XCPT U80S AT THE BEACHES. HEAT INDEX
VALUES XPCTD TO REMAIN BLO 100.

PVS DSCN:
M CLR TO PT CLOUDY TONIGHT. WEAK SHEAR AND BEST FORCING/MOISTURE
REMAINING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANY LINGERING
CONVECTION TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SS. LOWS U60S-L70S EXCEPT
M70S BEACH AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ERN TROUGH SHARPENS A BIT MORE TO ALLOW THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO DROP ACROSS THE FA FROM THE N. BEST DYNAMICS/FORCING
LOOK TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER, LLVL CONVERGENCE,
MOISTURE/RH POOLING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY ALL SEEM TO POINT TOWARD SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING,
WITH BEST AREAL COVERAGE EXPECTED FROM CENTRAL VA OVER TO THE NRN
NECK AND ERN SHORE, WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED. OTW, WILL
CARRY SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE SE FARTHER AWAY FROM BETTER FORCING
AND LIFT. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN 90-95...BUT WL FEEL A BIT HOTTER WITH
INCREASED HUMIDITY. SLIGHTLY COOLER U80S TO AROUND 90 AGAIN AT
COASTAL/BEACH AREAS. ANY CONVECTION DISSIPATES AFTER SS. MILD TUE
NIGHT W/LOWS U60S-M70S.

BOUNDARY WASHES OUT / DISSIPATES OVER THE REGION WED/THU, AS FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL. HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC
POP FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION, AS
ADDITIONAL WEAK PERTURBATIONS PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. CONTINUED
VERY WARM AND STILL MODERATELY HUMID WITH HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE ELEVATED EACH DAY THRU THE PERIOD AND SHOULD
TOP OUT ~ 100 DEG F TUE/WED WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS
INTERIOR SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK TROF OF LO PRES WAS STRETCHING FM ESE MD SW THRU EAST-CNTRL
VA AND INTO NCNTRL NC THIS AFTN. RDR INDICATED ISLTD SHOWERS AND
TSTMS DEVELOPING ALNG THE BNDRY FM CNTRL VA (JUST ENE RIC) SW INTO
NCNTRL NC. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY ONLY LAST INTO EARLY THIS
EVENG BEFORE DISSIPATING. OTHERWISE...MORE PCPN WAS ALNG THE NC
OUTER BANKS CLOSER TO A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BNDRY. DID NOT PUT ANY
PCPN IN THE 18Z TAFS...AND JUST EXPECT VFR CONDS WITH SCT SC AND
AC FOR THE TAF SITES THRU THE TAF PERIOD. ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL
THEN SLOWLY PUSH INTO AND ACRS THE REGION TUE INTO WED
MORNG...PROVIDING SLGT TO SML CHCS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS. BREEZY SW
WINDS PERSIST ON TUE...BECOMING MORE W-NW ON WED. CONDITIONS
BECOME MORE UNSETTLED LATER THU THRU FRI...AS LO PRES AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AFFECT THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. PREDOMINANTLY S-SW WINDS
WILL AVERAGE AOB 15 KT...BECOMING MORE BREEZY BY THIS AFTN.
LOW-END SCA WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER THE BAY/SOUND AND COASTAL
WATERS NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER...PERSISTING INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 25 KT OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL WATERS.
1-2 FT WAVES BUILD TO 3-4 FT THIS EVENING...AND 2-3 FT SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT. WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL BELOW 15 KT
AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER SEAS WILL BE SLOW
TO DROP BELOW 5 FT UNTIL EARLY AFTN.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE
WITH THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS
BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS. BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY...
BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT (AOB 10 KT) ON WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...EXPECT S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS
2-3 FT (UP TO 4 FT AT TIMES NEAR 20 NM).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ633-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...BMD



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031715
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
115 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN STALLS ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHWRS DVLPNG ERLY THIS AFTRN AS WEAK MID LVL TROF DRIFTS SE ACROSS
THE FA. ADDED SLGHT CHC POPS ACROSS SRN HALF OF FA TO ACCOUNT FOR
THERE. OTW..NO CHANGES MADE.

ADJUSTED GRIDS A BIT PER CRNT TRENDS. PCPN NOW WELL SOUTH OF THE
RGN SO DROPPED POPS ACROSS NE NC ZONES FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS. MSAS
INDCTG SFC BNDRY LCTD ACROSS SERN VA SNAKING ITS WAY SW INTO THE
NC PIEDMONT. HIGH RES DATA SUGGESTS SCT CONVECTION DVLPNG ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THIS BNDRY AFTR 18Z...SO KEPT 20-30 POP THERE...
HIGHEST IVOF ALREMARLE SND. CDFRNT REMAINS WELL NW OF FA TDY WITH
SFC TROF DVLMNG OUT AHEAD OF IT. LTST DATA SHOWS LITTLE IF ANY
SPRT FOR CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE. HOT AND A BIT MORE HUMID
WITH HIGHS IN THE L-M90S...XCPT U80S AT THE BEACHES. HEAT INDEX
VALUES XPCTD TO REMAIN BLO 100.

PVS DSCN:
M CLR TO PT CLOUDY TONIGHT. WEAK SHEAR AND BEST FORCING/MOISTURE
REMAINING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANY LINGERING
CONVECTION TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SS. LOWS U60S-L70S EXCEPT
M70S BEACH AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ERN TROUGH SHARPENS A BIT MORE TO ALLOW THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO DROP ACROSS THE FA FROM THE N. BEST DYNAMICS/FORCING
LOOK TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER, LLVL CONVERGENCE,
MOISTURE/RH POOLING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY ALL SEEM TO POINT TOWARD SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING,
WITH BEST AREAL COVERAGE EXPECTED FROM CENTRAL VA OVER TO THE NRN
NECK AND ERN SHORE, WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED. OTW, WILL
CARRY SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE SE FARTHER AWAY FROM BETTER FORCING
AND LIFT. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN 90-95...BUT WL FEEL A BIT HOTTER WITH
INCREASED HUMIDITY. SLIGHTLY COOLER U80S TO AROUND 90 AGAIN AT
COASTAL/BEACH AREAS. ANY CONVECTION DISSIPATES AFTER SS. MILD TUE
NIGHT W/LOWS U60S-M70S.

BOUNDARY WASHES OUT / DISSIPATES OVER THE REGION WED/THU, AS FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL. HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC
POP FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION, AS
ADDITIONAL WEAK PERTURBATIONS PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. CONTINUED
VERY WARM AND STILL MODERATELY HUMID WITH HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE ELEVATED EACH DAY THRU THE PERIOD AND SHOULD
TOP OUT ~ 100 DEG F TUE/WED WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS
INTERIOR SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPDATE...SHOWERS RIDING ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING
SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF ALBEMARLE SOUND. THEREFORE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
IMPACTS TO FLIGHT CONDITIONS AT KECG.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR
SE VA AND NC EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH SOUTH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY BY
THIS AFTN. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS
AT KECG... OTHERWISE THE REMAINING TAF SITES WILL BE DRY DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE WITH
THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS.
BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY... BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT
ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. PREDOMINANTLY S-SW WINDS
WILL AVERAGE AOB 15 KT...BECOMING MORE BREEZY BY THIS AFTN.
LOW-END SCA WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER THE BAY/SOUND AND COASTAL
WATERS NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER...PERSISTING INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 25 KT OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL WATERS.
1-2 FT WAVES BUILD TO 3-4 FT THIS EVENING...AND 2-3 FT SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT. WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL BELOW 15 KT
AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER SEAS WILL BE SLOW
TO DROP BELOW 5 FT UNTIL EARLY AFTN.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE
WITH THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS
BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS. BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY...
BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT (AOB 10 KT) ON WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...EXPECT S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS
2-3 FT (UP TO 4 FT AT TIMES NEAR 20 NM).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ633-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD



000
FXUS61 KRNK 031643
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1243 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY PROVIDING MAINLY
DRY WEATHER. A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION BY
TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT MIDWEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG
THE FRONT BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT MONDAY...

ADJUSTED THE CLOUD COVER TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS AND REMOVED THE
LOW CHANCE POPS THAT WERE IN FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALL OTHER
NEAR TERM FORECAST DETAILS FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION REMAIN INTACT.

AS OF 500 AM EDT MONDAY...

FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR COURTESY OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION. THIS DOME OF FAIR WEATHER IS
GRADUALLY FADING PER DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
OOZING NORTH...AND A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO DRAW HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE REGION...BUT LACK OF
FORCING WILL KEEP POPS AT A MINIMUM. MAIN THREAT FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ALONG THE APPROACHING
FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA...WV
COUNTIES...TOWARD SUNSET. MODELS INSIST THAT ACTIVITY WILL DRY UP
AS IT TRIES TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THE LEE TROF OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CWA...PIEDMONT COUNTIES...THIS AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE
LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE A MOSTLY SUNNY...VERY
WARM AND MAINLY DRY AFTERNOON. 85H TEMPS OF +20 DEG C SHOULD
PROMOTE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...AND INTO THE LOWER 90S ALONG AND EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FEET SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY IN THE
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT MONDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LESS PRONOUNCED OVER THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH MID WEEK...ALLOWING WINDS ALOFT TO BECOME
GENERALLY WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC...THEREBY OPENING OUR
AREA TO THE APPROACH OF DISTURBANCES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
MIDWEST.

ONE DISTURBANCE PASSING NEAR THE OHIO RIVER EARLY TUESDAY WILL HELP
PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY. WITH
ONLY MODEST MOISTURE RETURNING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...BELIEVE THAT
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING WITH AFTERNOON HEATING
WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOUND SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 460. THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR OUR AREA TO THE SOUTH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH POST FRONTAL NORTHWESTERLY WINDFLOW HELPING TO
DIMINISH ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MAKE FOR DRY
CONDITIONS MOST AREAS FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH PERHAPS A FEW PULSE
VARIETY SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AGAIN...BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FOUND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
460...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHLANDS OF NORTH CAROLINA WHERE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE RIDGETOPS MAY TRIGGER BETTER SLIGHTLY COVERAGE
OF CONVECTION IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT WAVES OF ENERGY RIDING AHEAD OF
THE LOW WILL PASS ACROSS OUR AREA...AND SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO LIFT BACK TO THE
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

THE LOW WILL PUSH UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY. EXPECT TO
START THE DAY WITH ONLY SPOTTY RAIN ACTIVITY...HOWEVER SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE DURING THE EVENING AS THE LOW
APPROACHES THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. THE LOW WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF
OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE
MOUNTAINS BEFORE DAWN. OF NOTE IS THE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
MODELS IN THE INTENSITY OF THE LOW AS IT PASSES OUR AREA. THE GFS
MODEL IS FAR WEAKER THAN THE ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS IN ITS DEPICTION
OF THE LOW...WITH THE STRONGER SOLUTIONS INDICATING A THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE NIGHT. RIGHT NOW...BELIEVE THE ECMWF/
CANADIAN SOLUTIONS ARE A LITTLE TOO STRONG GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR
AND LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...SO FOR NOW WILL STICK CLOSER TO
THE WEAKER GFS SOLUTION AND SIMPLY CONTINUE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION
OF THIS SYSTEM IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT SUNDAY...

TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE PERIOD
AS THE REGION GETS CAUGHT UNDER THE SURFACE-850 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE
AND WITHIN A NEARBY FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHED BACK INTO THE MIDWEST.
STRONGER ENERGY ALOFT DROPPING OVER THE CENTRAL STATES UPPER RIDGE
WILL THEN START TO DIG OUT ANOTHER RATHER STRONG 5H TROUGH TO THE NW
FRIDAY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE HELPING TO DRIVE THE NEXT
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY FRIDAY EVENING.

SIMILAR TO THE LAST WEEK OR TWO...APPEARS ANOTHER SURGE OF MUCH
DRIER/COOLER AIR LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT NEXT WEEKEND AS YET ANOTHER
5H TROUGH CARVES ITSELF OUT ACROSS THE EAST. GUIDANCE EVEN COOLER
ALOFT WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN PROGGED 850 MB TEMPS AS COOL AS +12C
MOUNTAINS BUT MAY BE TOO COOL THAT FAR OUT. HOWEVER STILL ENOUGH TO
DROP HIGHS BACK IN THE 70S MOUNTAINS AND ONLY LOW/MID 80S OUT EAST
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS/WEDGES IN FROM THE NORTH. RESIDUAL POPS A
BIT TRICKY TOWARD DAYS 6/7 BUT SHOULD BE DRIER WITH PERHAPS SOME
LEFTOVER UPSLOPE SHOWERS WEST SATURDAY AND ONLY ISOLATED FAR
SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT MONDAY...

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD AS
A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BE INCREASING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. MAIN CONCERN FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FROM NORTHERN
KY UP THROUGH EASTERN OHIO ALONG THE OHIO RIVER INTO PENNSYLVANIA.
STORMS THAT FORM ALONG THIS FRONT TODAY MAY APPROACH KBLF/KLWB
LATE IN THE DAY...BUT CONFIDENCE LOW AS TO WHETHER THIS ACTIVITY
WILL BE ABLE TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS...THUS OMITTING FROM THE
KBLF/KLWB TAFS ATTM. OVER AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...CAN`T RULE
OUT A LATE AFTERNOON AIRMASS THUNDERSHOWER...BUT COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED.

FOG CONCERNS REMAIN MINIMAL AS AIR MASS IS VERY DRY. HOWEVER...AS
IS OFTEN THE CASE FOR LWB IN THE GREENBRIER VALLEY...RADIATIONAL
COOLING MAY PERMIT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR/LIFR EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...CONFIDENCE IN ANY
FOG IS LOW...AND WILL KEEP IT OUT OF THE TAFS ATTM.

WINDS TODAY BECOMING SOUTHWEST MONDAY MID-MORNING AND INCREASING
INTO THE 6-9KT RANGE MOST SITES BY LATE MORNING. SOME LOW END
GUSTS POSSIBLE AT BLF JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF
VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC FOR MID WEEK WHICH COULD
BRING A FEW SHRA/TSRA BY TUESDAY...WITH A BIT MORE COVERAGE LATER
WEDNESDAY AND A BETTER CHANCE THURSDAY. THE THREAT OF SUB-VFR
REMAINS LOW UNTIL THURSDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL FOG POTENTIAL
AT KLWB/KBCB EACH MORNING BETWEEN 09-13Z.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...CF/PM
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...PM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 031643
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1243 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY PROVIDING MAINLY
DRY WEATHER. A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION BY
TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT MIDWEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG
THE FRONT BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT MONDAY...

ADJUSTED THE CLOUD COVER TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS AND REMOVED THE
LOW CHANCE POPS THAT WERE IN FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALL OTHER
NEAR TERM FORECAST DETAILS FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION REMAIN INTACT.

AS OF 500 AM EDT MONDAY...

FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR COURTESY OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION. THIS DOME OF FAIR WEATHER IS
GRADUALLY FADING PER DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
OOZING NORTH...AND A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO DRAW HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE REGION...BUT LACK OF
FORCING WILL KEEP POPS AT A MINIMUM. MAIN THREAT FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ALONG THE APPROACHING
FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA...WV
COUNTIES...TOWARD SUNSET. MODELS INSIST THAT ACTIVITY WILL DRY UP
AS IT TRIES TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THE LEE TROF OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CWA...PIEDMONT COUNTIES...THIS AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE
LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE A MOSTLY SUNNY...VERY
WARM AND MAINLY DRY AFTERNOON. 85H TEMPS OF +20 DEG C SHOULD
PROMOTE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...AND INTO THE LOWER 90S ALONG AND EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FEET SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY IN THE
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT MONDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LESS PRONOUNCED OVER THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH MID WEEK...ALLOWING WINDS ALOFT TO BECOME
GENERALLY WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC...THEREBY OPENING OUR
AREA TO THE APPROACH OF DISTURBANCES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
MIDWEST.

ONE DISTURBANCE PASSING NEAR THE OHIO RIVER EARLY TUESDAY WILL HELP
PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY. WITH
ONLY MODEST MOISTURE RETURNING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...BELIEVE THAT
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING WITH AFTERNOON HEATING
WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOUND SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 460. THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR OUR AREA TO THE SOUTH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH POST FRONTAL NORTHWESTERLY WINDFLOW HELPING TO
DIMINISH ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MAKE FOR DRY
CONDITIONS MOST AREAS FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH PERHAPS A FEW PULSE
VARIETY SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AGAIN...BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FOUND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
460...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHLANDS OF NORTH CAROLINA WHERE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE RIDGETOPS MAY TRIGGER BETTER SLIGHTLY COVERAGE
OF CONVECTION IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT WAVES OF ENERGY RIDING AHEAD OF
THE LOW WILL PASS ACROSS OUR AREA...AND SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO LIFT BACK TO THE
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

THE LOW WILL PUSH UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY. EXPECT TO
START THE DAY WITH ONLY SPOTTY RAIN ACTIVITY...HOWEVER SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE DURING THE EVENING AS THE LOW
APPROACHES THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. THE LOW WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF
OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE
MOUNTAINS BEFORE DAWN. OF NOTE IS THE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
MODELS IN THE INTENSITY OF THE LOW AS IT PASSES OUR AREA. THE GFS
MODEL IS FAR WEAKER THAN THE ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS IN ITS DEPICTION
OF THE LOW...WITH THE STRONGER SOLUTIONS INDICATING A THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE NIGHT. RIGHT NOW...BELIEVE THE ECMWF/
CANADIAN SOLUTIONS ARE A LITTLE TOO STRONG GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR
AND LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...SO FOR NOW WILL STICK CLOSER TO
THE WEAKER GFS SOLUTION AND SIMPLY CONTINUE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION
OF THIS SYSTEM IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT SUNDAY...

TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE PERIOD
AS THE REGION GETS CAUGHT UNDER THE SURFACE-850 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE
AND WITHIN A NEARBY FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHED BACK INTO THE MIDWEST.
STRONGER ENERGY ALOFT DROPPING OVER THE CENTRAL STATES UPPER RIDGE
WILL THEN START TO DIG OUT ANOTHER RATHER STRONG 5H TROUGH TO THE NW
FRIDAY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE HELPING TO DRIVE THE NEXT
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY FRIDAY EVENING.

SIMILAR TO THE LAST WEEK OR TWO...APPEARS ANOTHER SURGE OF MUCH
DRIER/COOLER AIR LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT NEXT WEEKEND AS YET ANOTHER
5H TROUGH CARVES ITSELF OUT ACROSS THE EAST. GUIDANCE EVEN COOLER
ALOFT WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN PROGGED 850 MB TEMPS AS COOL AS +12C
MOUNTAINS BUT MAY BE TOO COOL THAT FAR OUT. HOWEVER STILL ENOUGH TO
DROP HIGHS BACK IN THE 70S MOUNTAINS AND ONLY LOW/MID 80S OUT EAST
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS/WEDGES IN FROM THE NORTH. RESIDUAL POPS A
BIT TRICKY TOWARD DAYS 6/7 BUT SHOULD BE DRIER WITH PERHAPS SOME
LEFTOVER UPSLOPE SHOWERS WEST SATURDAY AND ONLY ISOLATED FAR
SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT MONDAY...

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD AS
A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BE INCREASING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. MAIN CONCERN FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FROM NORTHERN
KY UP THROUGH EASTERN OHIO ALONG THE OHIO RIVER INTO PENNSYLVANIA.
STORMS THAT FORM ALONG THIS FRONT TODAY MAY APPROACH KBLF/KLWB
LATE IN THE DAY...BUT CONFIDENCE LOW AS TO WHETHER THIS ACTIVITY
WILL BE ABLE TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS...THUS OMITTING FROM THE
KBLF/KLWB TAFS ATTM. OVER AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...CAN`T RULE
OUT A LATE AFTERNOON AIRMASS THUNDERSHOWER...BUT COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED.

FOG CONCERNS REMAIN MINIMAL AS AIR MASS IS VERY DRY. HOWEVER...AS
IS OFTEN THE CASE FOR LWB IN THE GREENBRIER VALLEY...RADIATIONAL
COOLING MAY PERMIT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR/LIFR EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...CONFIDENCE IN ANY
FOG IS LOW...AND WILL KEEP IT OUT OF THE TAFS ATTM.

WINDS TODAY BECOMING SOUTHWEST MONDAY MID-MORNING AND INCREASING
INTO THE 6-9KT RANGE MOST SITES BY LATE MORNING. SOME LOW END
GUSTS POSSIBLE AT BLF JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF
VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC FOR MID WEEK WHICH COULD
BRING A FEW SHRA/TSRA BY TUESDAY...WITH A BIT MORE COVERAGE LATER
WEDNESDAY AND A BETTER CHANCE THURSDAY. THE THREAT OF SUB-VFR
REMAINS LOW UNTIL THURSDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL FOG POTENTIAL
AT KLWB/KBCB EACH MORNING BETWEEN 09-13Z.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...CF/PM
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...PM



000
FXUS61 KRNK 031643
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1243 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY PROVIDING MAINLY
DRY WEATHER. A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION BY
TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT MIDWEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG
THE FRONT BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT MONDAY...

ADJUSTED THE CLOUD COVER TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS AND REMOVED THE
LOW CHANCE POPS THAT WERE IN FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALL OTHER
NEAR TERM FORECAST DETAILS FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION REMAIN INTACT.

AS OF 500 AM EDT MONDAY...

FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR COURTESY OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION. THIS DOME OF FAIR WEATHER IS
GRADUALLY FADING PER DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
OOZING NORTH...AND A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO DRAW HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE REGION...BUT LACK OF
FORCING WILL KEEP POPS AT A MINIMUM. MAIN THREAT FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ALONG THE APPROACHING
FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA...WV
COUNTIES...TOWARD SUNSET. MODELS INSIST THAT ACTIVITY WILL DRY UP
AS IT TRIES TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THE LEE TROF OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CWA...PIEDMONT COUNTIES...THIS AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE
LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE A MOSTLY SUNNY...VERY
WARM AND MAINLY DRY AFTERNOON. 85H TEMPS OF +20 DEG C SHOULD
PROMOTE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...AND INTO THE LOWER 90S ALONG AND EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FEET SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY IN THE
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT MONDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LESS PRONOUNCED OVER THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH MID WEEK...ALLOWING WINDS ALOFT TO BECOME
GENERALLY WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC...THEREBY OPENING OUR
AREA TO THE APPROACH OF DISTURBANCES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
MIDWEST.

ONE DISTURBANCE PASSING NEAR THE OHIO RIVER EARLY TUESDAY WILL HELP
PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY. WITH
ONLY MODEST MOISTURE RETURNING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...BELIEVE THAT
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING WITH AFTERNOON HEATING
WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOUND SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 460. THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR OUR AREA TO THE SOUTH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH POST FRONTAL NORTHWESTERLY WINDFLOW HELPING TO
DIMINISH ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MAKE FOR DRY
CONDITIONS MOST AREAS FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH PERHAPS A FEW PULSE
VARIETY SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AGAIN...BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FOUND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
460...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHLANDS OF NORTH CAROLINA WHERE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE RIDGETOPS MAY TRIGGER BETTER SLIGHTLY COVERAGE
OF CONVECTION IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT WAVES OF ENERGY RIDING AHEAD OF
THE LOW WILL PASS ACROSS OUR AREA...AND SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO LIFT BACK TO THE
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

THE LOW WILL PUSH UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY. EXPECT TO
START THE DAY WITH ONLY SPOTTY RAIN ACTIVITY...HOWEVER SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE DURING THE EVENING AS THE LOW
APPROACHES THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. THE LOW WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF
OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE
MOUNTAINS BEFORE DAWN. OF NOTE IS THE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
MODELS IN THE INTENSITY OF THE LOW AS IT PASSES OUR AREA. THE GFS
MODEL IS FAR WEAKER THAN THE ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS IN ITS DEPICTION
OF THE LOW...WITH THE STRONGER SOLUTIONS INDICATING A THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE NIGHT. RIGHT NOW...BELIEVE THE ECMWF/
CANADIAN SOLUTIONS ARE A LITTLE TOO STRONG GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR
AND LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...SO FOR NOW WILL STICK CLOSER TO
THE WEAKER GFS SOLUTION AND SIMPLY CONTINUE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION
OF THIS SYSTEM IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT SUNDAY...

TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE PERIOD
AS THE REGION GETS CAUGHT UNDER THE SURFACE-850 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE
AND WITHIN A NEARBY FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHED BACK INTO THE MIDWEST.
STRONGER ENERGY ALOFT DROPPING OVER THE CENTRAL STATES UPPER RIDGE
WILL THEN START TO DIG OUT ANOTHER RATHER STRONG 5H TROUGH TO THE NW
FRIDAY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE HELPING TO DRIVE THE NEXT
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY FRIDAY EVENING.

SIMILAR TO THE LAST WEEK OR TWO...APPEARS ANOTHER SURGE OF MUCH
DRIER/COOLER AIR LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT NEXT WEEKEND AS YET ANOTHER
5H TROUGH CARVES ITSELF OUT ACROSS THE EAST. GUIDANCE EVEN COOLER
ALOFT WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN PROGGED 850 MB TEMPS AS COOL AS +12C
MOUNTAINS BUT MAY BE TOO COOL THAT FAR OUT. HOWEVER STILL ENOUGH TO
DROP HIGHS BACK IN THE 70S MOUNTAINS AND ONLY LOW/MID 80S OUT EAST
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS/WEDGES IN FROM THE NORTH. RESIDUAL POPS A
BIT TRICKY TOWARD DAYS 6/7 BUT SHOULD BE DRIER WITH PERHAPS SOME
LEFTOVER UPSLOPE SHOWERS WEST SATURDAY AND ONLY ISOLATED FAR
SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT MONDAY...

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD AS
A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BE INCREASING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. MAIN CONCERN FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FROM NORTHERN
KY UP THROUGH EASTERN OHIO ALONG THE OHIO RIVER INTO PENNSYLVANIA.
STORMS THAT FORM ALONG THIS FRONT TODAY MAY APPROACH KBLF/KLWB
LATE IN THE DAY...BUT CONFIDENCE LOW AS TO WHETHER THIS ACTIVITY
WILL BE ABLE TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS...THUS OMITTING FROM THE
KBLF/KLWB TAFS ATTM. OVER AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...CAN`T RULE
OUT A LATE AFTERNOON AIRMASS THUNDERSHOWER...BUT COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED.

FOG CONCERNS REMAIN MINIMAL AS AIR MASS IS VERY DRY. HOWEVER...AS
IS OFTEN THE CASE FOR LWB IN THE GREENBRIER VALLEY...RADIATIONAL
COOLING MAY PERMIT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR/LIFR EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...CONFIDENCE IN ANY
FOG IS LOW...AND WILL KEEP IT OUT OF THE TAFS ATTM.

WINDS TODAY BECOMING SOUTHWEST MONDAY MID-MORNING AND INCREASING
INTO THE 6-9KT RANGE MOST SITES BY LATE MORNING. SOME LOW END
GUSTS POSSIBLE AT BLF JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF
VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC FOR MID WEEK WHICH COULD
BRING A FEW SHRA/TSRA BY TUESDAY...WITH A BIT MORE COVERAGE LATER
WEDNESDAY AND A BETTER CHANCE THURSDAY. THE THREAT OF SUB-VFR
REMAINS LOW UNTIL THURSDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL FOG POTENTIAL
AT KLWB/KBCB EACH MORNING BETWEEN 09-13Z.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...CF/PM
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...PM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 031643
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1243 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY PROVIDING MAINLY
DRY WEATHER. A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION BY
TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT MIDWEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG
THE FRONT BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT MONDAY...

ADJUSTED THE CLOUD COVER TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS AND REMOVED THE
LOW CHANCE POPS THAT WERE IN FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALL OTHER
NEAR TERM FORECAST DETAILS FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION REMAIN INTACT.

AS OF 500 AM EDT MONDAY...

FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR COURTESY OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION. THIS DOME OF FAIR WEATHER IS
GRADUALLY FADING PER DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
OOZING NORTH...AND A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO DRAW HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE REGION...BUT LACK OF
FORCING WILL KEEP POPS AT A MINIMUM. MAIN THREAT FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ALONG THE APPROACHING
FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA...WV
COUNTIES...TOWARD SUNSET. MODELS INSIST THAT ACTIVITY WILL DRY UP
AS IT TRIES TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THE LEE TROF OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CWA...PIEDMONT COUNTIES...THIS AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE
LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE A MOSTLY SUNNY...VERY
WARM AND MAINLY DRY AFTERNOON. 85H TEMPS OF +20 DEG C SHOULD
PROMOTE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...AND INTO THE LOWER 90S ALONG AND EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FEET SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY IN THE
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT MONDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LESS PRONOUNCED OVER THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH MID WEEK...ALLOWING WINDS ALOFT TO BECOME
GENERALLY WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC...THEREBY OPENING OUR
AREA TO THE APPROACH OF DISTURBANCES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
MIDWEST.

ONE DISTURBANCE PASSING NEAR THE OHIO RIVER EARLY TUESDAY WILL HELP
PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY. WITH
ONLY MODEST MOISTURE RETURNING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...BELIEVE THAT
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING WITH AFTERNOON HEATING
WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOUND SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 460. THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR OUR AREA TO THE SOUTH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH POST FRONTAL NORTHWESTERLY WINDFLOW HELPING TO
DIMINISH ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MAKE FOR DRY
CONDITIONS MOST AREAS FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH PERHAPS A FEW PULSE
VARIETY SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AGAIN...BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FOUND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
460...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHLANDS OF NORTH CAROLINA WHERE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE RIDGETOPS MAY TRIGGER BETTER SLIGHTLY COVERAGE
OF CONVECTION IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT WAVES OF ENERGY RIDING AHEAD OF
THE LOW WILL PASS ACROSS OUR AREA...AND SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO LIFT BACK TO THE
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

THE LOW WILL PUSH UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY. EXPECT TO
START THE DAY WITH ONLY SPOTTY RAIN ACTIVITY...HOWEVER SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE DURING THE EVENING AS THE LOW
APPROACHES THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. THE LOW WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF
OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE
MOUNTAINS BEFORE DAWN. OF NOTE IS THE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
MODELS IN THE INTENSITY OF THE LOW AS IT PASSES OUR AREA. THE GFS
MODEL IS FAR WEAKER THAN THE ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS IN ITS DEPICTION
OF THE LOW...WITH THE STRONGER SOLUTIONS INDICATING A THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE NIGHT. RIGHT NOW...BELIEVE THE ECMWF/
CANADIAN SOLUTIONS ARE A LITTLE TOO STRONG GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR
AND LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...SO FOR NOW WILL STICK CLOSER TO
THE WEAKER GFS SOLUTION AND SIMPLY CONTINUE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION
OF THIS SYSTEM IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT SUNDAY...

TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE PERIOD
AS THE REGION GETS CAUGHT UNDER THE SURFACE-850 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE
AND WITHIN A NEARBY FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHED BACK INTO THE MIDWEST.
STRONGER ENERGY ALOFT DROPPING OVER THE CENTRAL STATES UPPER RIDGE
WILL THEN START TO DIG OUT ANOTHER RATHER STRONG 5H TROUGH TO THE NW
FRIDAY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE HELPING TO DRIVE THE NEXT
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY FRIDAY EVENING.

SIMILAR TO THE LAST WEEK OR TWO...APPEARS ANOTHER SURGE OF MUCH
DRIER/COOLER AIR LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT NEXT WEEKEND AS YET ANOTHER
5H TROUGH CARVES ITSELF OUT ACROSS THE EAST. GUIDANCE EVEN COOLER
ALOFT WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN PROGGED 850 MB TEMPS AS COOL AS +12C
MOUNTAINS BUT MAY BE TOO COOL THAT FAR OUT. HOWEVER STILL ENOUGH TO
DROP HIGHS BACK IN THE 70S MOUNTAINS AND ONLY LOW/MID 80S OUT EAST
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS/WEDGES IN FROM THE NORTH. RESIDUAL POPS A
BIT TRICKY TOWARD DAYS 6/7 BUT SHOULD BE DRIER WITH PERHAPS SOME
LEFTOVER UPSLOPE SHOWERS WEST SATURDAY AND ONLY ISOLATED FAR
SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT MONDAY...

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD AS
A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BE INCREASING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. MAIN CONCERN FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FROM NORTHERN
KY UP THROUGH EASTERN OHIO ALONG THE OHIO RIVER INTO PENNSYLVANIA.
STORMS THAT FORM ALONG THIS FRONT TODAY MAY APPROACH KBLF/KLWB
LATE IN THE DAY...BUT CONFIDENCE LOW AS TO WHETHER THIS ACTIVITY
WILL BE ABLE TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS...THUS OMITTING FROM THE
KBLF/KLWB TAFS ATTM. OVER AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...CAN`T RULE
OUT A LATE AFTERNOON AIRMASS THUNDERSHOWER...BUT COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED.

FOG CONCERNS REMAIN MINIMAL AS AIR MASS IS VERY DRY. HOWEVER...AS
IS OFTEN THE CASE FOR LWB IN THE GREENBRIER VALLEY...RADIATIONAL
COOLING MAY PERMIT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR/LIFR EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...CONFIDENCE IN ANY
FOG IS LOW...AND WILL KEEP IT OUT OF THE TAFS ATTM.

WINDS TODAY BECOMING SOUTHWEST MONDAY MID-MORNING AND INCREASING
INTO THE 6-9KT RANGE MOST SITES BY LATE MORNING. SOME LOW END
GUSTS POSSIBLE AT BLF JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF
VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC FOR MID WEEK WHICH COULD
BRING A FEW SHRA/TSRA BY TUESDAY...WITH A BIT MORE COVERAGE LATER
WEDNESDAY AND A BETTER CHANCE THURSDAY. THE THREAT OF SUB-VFR
REMAINS LOW UNTIL THURSDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL FOG POTENTIAL
AT KLWB/KBCB EACH MORNING BETWEEN 09-13Z.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...CF/PM
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...PM



000
FXUS61 KLWX 031340
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
940 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TODAY BEFORE STALLING OUT
OVERHEAD TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE A STALLED
FRONT...PASSING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH THEN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. A DECAYING SQUALL LINE IS
MOVING INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SOUTH THIS MORNING. A SFC TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO FORM BY THIS AFTERNOON AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN MD AND SURROUNDING WATERS AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES IN THIS LOCATION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
THIS MORNING. POTENT UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN
OVER THE HUDSON BAY AND THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM EXTENDS SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH AND EAST APPROACHING OUR
AREA TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH A DEEP
MIXING LAYER AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW FOR UNSEASONABLY
HOT CONDITIONS. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH TODAY...SO DEWPOINTS SHOULD MIX DOWN INTO
THE 50S AND 60S TODAY...KEEPING HEAT INDICES CLOSER TO AIR
TEMPERATURES.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING. A THETA-E
RIDGE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY MAY INCREASE INSTABILITY SOME...AND
THIS WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND INTO THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WHERE FORCING ON THE BOUNDARY WILL BE STRONGER.
THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT...AND A COUPLE
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME...BUT MOST OF THE TIME SHOULD BE DRY SINCE FORCING ON THE
FRONT WILL BE WEAK. THERE WILL BE LITTLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE FRONT...BUT IT WILL BE WARMER AND MORE HUMID NEAR AND
EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S
ACROSS MOST AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID AND
UPPER 70S NEAR DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON/BALTIMORE AND ALSO EAST OF
INTERSTATE 95.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED OVERHEAD...MOST LIKELY NEAR
INTESTATE 95 SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. AGAIN...LITTLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE BOUNDARY SO MOST AREAS WILL TURN OUT QUITE WARM WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MANY LOCATIONS. A COUPLE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.

THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THE BOUNDARY MAY SHIFT A BIT FARTHER SOUTH FOR WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IT SHOULD NOT MOVE
TOO FAR. A WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MORE WARM CONDITIONS
ACROSS ALL AREAS...BUT HUMIDITY MAY BE A BIT HIGHER ACROSS
SOUTHERN MARYLAND AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY.
THEREFORE...A COUPLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THESE AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...MOST AREAS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY SINCE THE BOUNDARY WILL BE WEAK.

A POTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE MIDWEST
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS SYSTEM BEING A BIT
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. THEREFORE...POPS HAVE BEEN
TWEAKED DOWN A BIT WITH THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATE. WILL CONTINUE
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT BUT IF THE
LATEST TRENDS CONTINUE IT ACTUALLY END UP DRY DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z MODEL SUITE HAS A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT POSITIONED OVER
SOUTHERN VA BY 12Z THURS. SOME INCONSISTENCIES ON SFC LOW PRESSURE
ORGANIZING OVER THE MIDWEST...WITH ALL BUT THE GFS DEVELOPING A
CLOSED LOW THAT THEN PROCEEDS TO DEEPEN AS IT RIDES THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. WILL GO WITH MORE OF THE CONSISTENT SOLUTION AND BRING
THE CLOSED SFC LOW INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THURS NIGHT. CONCERNING
PCPN...USING THIS SOLUTION WOULD HAVE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS
OVERSPREADING THE REGION DURING THE DAY THURS AND THRU THE NIGHT
INTO FRI...CORRESPONDING WITH THE PASSAGE WITH MID LVL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY. THE EXACT PATH OF THE LOW WILL DICTATE THE EXTEND OF ANY
TSTM ACTIVITY...WITH THE BETTER CHC IN THE LATEST RUNS INDICATING
CENTRAL VA AND SOUTH.

THE LOW PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA
THEN ATTEMPTING TO BUILD SOUTH. AM KEEPING SLIGHT CHC POPS IN DURING
THE WEEKEND TO ACCOUNT FOR MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES MVG THRU THE REGION
WHICH COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AND PSBL
EVEN TSTMS.

TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THRU THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY BR MAY REDUCE VSBYS BRIEFLY TO MVFR LEVELS
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS KMRB BUT CONVECTION
SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED/SCATTERED. A COUPLE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP NEAR THE EASTERN TERMINALS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THURS INTO FRI WITH DEVELOPING SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. PCPN WILL BE MORE OCNL IN NATURE DURING THE DAY
THURS...BCMG MORE WIDESPREAD THURS NIGHT AND FRI BEFORE TAPERING
OFF BY FRI NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS TODAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL STRENGTHEN DUE TO AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY
CHANNEL UP THE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MARYLAND
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER TONIGHT...AND FOR THE
MIDDLE PORTION OF THE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER TUESDAY
MORNING.

A BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE WATERS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
A COUPLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CONVECTION MAY BE SUPPRESSED FURTHER SOUTH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CURRENTLY EXPECTED THURS AND FRI.
DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW...COULD SEE SCA CONDITIONS
THURS NIGHT INTO FRI. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES REMAIN BELOW A HALF FOOT EARLY THIS MORNING.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ELEVATE
TIDAL ANOMALIES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. WATER LEVELS MAY
COME CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS FOR SENSITIVE AREAS
AROUND HIGH TIDE TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP WATER LEVELS BELOW
THOSE MINOR THRESHOLDS...WHICH MAKES SENSE SINCE THIS WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT WEST OF SOUTH LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WATER
LEVELS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED...SINCE IT WILL BE CLOSE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ530-531-538-
     539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     540>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL/HAS
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL/SEARS
AVIATION...BJL/SEARS
MARINE...BJL/SEARS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KLWX 031340
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
940 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TODAY BEFORE STALLING OUT
OVERHEAD TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE A STALLED
FRONT...PASSING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH THEN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. A DECAYING SQUALL LINE IS
MOVING INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SOUTH THIS MORNING. A SFC TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO FORM BY THIS AFTERNOON AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN MD AND SURROUNDING WATERS AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES IN THIS LOCATION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
THIS MORNING. POTENT UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN
OVER THE HUDSON BAY AND THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM EXTENDS SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH AND EAST APPROACHING OUR
AREA TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH A DEEP
MIXING LAYER AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW FOR UNSEASONABLY
HOT CONDITIONS. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH TODAY...SO DEWPOINTS SHOULD MIX DOWN INTO
THE 50S AND 60S TODAY...KEEPING HEAT INDICES CLOSER TO AIR
TEMPERATURES.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING. A THETA-E
RIDGE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY MAY INCREASE INSTABILITY SOME...AND
THIS WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND INTO THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WHERE FORCING ON THE BOUNDARY WILL BE STRONGER.
THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT...AND A COUPLE
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME...BUT MOST OF THE TIME SHOULD BE DRY SINCE FORCING ON THE
FRONT WILL BE WEAK. THERE WILL BE LITTLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE FRONT...BUT IT WILL BE WARMER AND MORE HUMID NEAR AND
EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S
ACROSS MOST AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID AND
UPPER 70S NEAR DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON/BALTIMORE AND ALSO EAST OF
INTERSTATE 95.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED OVERHEAD...MOST LIKELY NEAR
INTESTATE 95 SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. AGAIN...LITTLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE BOUNDARY SO MOST AREAS WILL TURN OUT QUITE WARM WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MANY LOCATIONS. A COUPLE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.

THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THE BOUNDARY MAY SHIFT A BIT FARTHER SOUTH FOR WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IT SHOULD NOT MOVE
TOO FAR. A WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MORE WARM CONDITIONS
ACROSS ALL AREAS...BUT HUMIDITY MAY BE A BIT HIGHER ACROSS
SOUTHERN MARYLAND AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY.
THEREFORE...A COUPLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THESE AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...MOST AREAS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY SINCE THE BOUNDARY WILL BE WEAK.

A POTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE MIDWEST
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS SYSTEM BEING A BIT
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. THEREFORE...POPS HAVE BEEN
TWEAKED DOWN A BIT WITH THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATE. WILL CONTINUE
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT BUT IF THE
LATEST TRENDS CONTINUE IT ACTUALLY END UP DRY DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z MODEL SUITE HAS A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT POSITIONED OVER
SOUTHERN VA BY 12Z THURS. SOME INCONSISTENCIES ON SFC LOW PRESSURE
ORGANIZING OVER THE MIDWEST...WITH ALL BUT THE GFS DEVELOPING A
CLOSED LOW THAT THEN PROCEEDS TO DEEPEN AS IT RIDES THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. WILL GO WITH MORE OF THE CONSISTENT SOLUTION AND BRING
THE CLOSED SFC LOW INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THURS NIGHT. CONCERNING
PCPN...USING THIS SOLUTION WOULD HAVE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS
OVERSPREADING THE REGION DURING THE DAY THURS AND THRU THE NIGHT
INTO FRI...CORRESPONDING WITH THE PASSAGE WITH MID LVL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY. THE EXACT PATH OF THE LOW WILL DICTATE THE EXTEND OF ANY
TSTM ACTIVITY...WITH THE BETTER CHC IN THE LATEST RUNS INDICATING
CENTRAL VA AND SOUTH.

THE LOW PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA
THEN ATTEMPTING TO BUILD SOUTH. AM KEEPING SLIGHT CHC POPS IN DURING
THE WEEKEND TO ACCOUNT FOR MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES MVG THRU THE REGION
WHICH COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AND PSBL
EVEN TSTMS.

TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THRU THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY BR MAY REDUCE VSBYS BRIEFLY TO MVFR LEVELS
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS KMRB BUT CONVECTION
SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED/SCATTERED. A COUPLE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP NEAR THE EASTERN TERMINALS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THURS INTO FRI WITH DEVELOPING SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. PCPN WILL BE MORE OCNL IN NATURE DURING THE DAY
THURS...BCMG MORE WIDESPREAD THURS NIGHT AND FRI BEFORE TAPERING
OFF BY FRI NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS TODAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL STRENGTHEN DUE TO AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY
CHANNEL UP THE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MARYLAND
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER TONIGHT...AND FOR THE
MIDDLE PORTION OF THE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER TUESDAY
MORNING.

A BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE WATERS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
A COUPLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CONVECTION MAY BE SUPPRESSED FURTHER SOUTH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CURRENTLY EXPECTED THURS AND FRI.
DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW...COULD SEE SCA CONDITIONS
THURS NIGHT INTO FRI. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES REMAIN BELOW A HALF FOOT EARLY THIS MORNING.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ELEVATE
TIDAL ANOMALIES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. WATER LEVELS MAY
COME CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS FOR SENSITIVE AREAS
AROUND HIGH TIDE TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP WATER LEVELS BELOW
THOSE MINOR THRESHOLDS...WHICH MAKES SENSE SINCE THIS WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT WEST OF SOUTH LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WATER
LEVELS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED...SINCE IT WILL BE CLOSE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ530-531-538-
     539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     540>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL/HAS
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL/SEARS
AVIATION...BJL/SEARS
MARINE...BJL/SEARS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031335
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
935 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN STALLS ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ADJUSTED GRIDS A BIT PER CRNT TRENDS. PCPN NOW WELL SOUTH OF THE
RGN SO DROPPED POPS ACROSS NE NC ZONES FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS. MSAS
INDCTG SFC BNDRY LCTD ACROSS SERN VA SNAKING ITS WAY SW INTO THE
NC PIEDMONT. HIGH RES DATA SUGGESTS SCT CONVECTION DVLPNG ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THIS BNDRY AFTR 18Z...SO KEPT 20-30 POP THERE...
HIGHEST IVOF ALREMARLE SND. CDFRNT REMAINS WELL NW OF FA TDY WITH
SFC TROF DVLMNG OUT AHEAD OF IT. LTST DATA SHOWS LITTLE IF ANY
SPRT FOR CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE. HOT AND A BIT MORE HUMID
WITH HIGHS IN THE L-M90S...XCPT U80S AT THE BEACHES. HEAT INDEX
VALUES XPCTD TO REMAIN BLO 100.

PVS DSCN:
M CLR TO PT CLOUDY TONIGHT. WEAK SHEAR AND BEST FORCING/MOISTURE
REMAINING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANY LINGERING
CONVECTION TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SS. LOWS U60S-L70S EXCEPT
M70S BEACH AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ERN TROUGH SHARPENS A BIT MORE TO ALLOW THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO DROP ACROSS THE FA FROM THE N. BEST DYNAMICS/FORCING
LOOK TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER, LLVL CONVERGENCE,
MOISTURE/RH POOLING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY ALL SEEM TO POINT TOWARD SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING,
WITH BEST AREAL COVERAGE EXPECTED FROM CENTRAL VA OVER TO THE NRN
NECK AND ERN SHORE, WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED. OTW, WILL
CARRY SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE SE FARTHER AWAY FROM BETTER FORCING
AND LIFT. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN 90-95...BUT WL FEEL A BIT HOTTER WITH
INCREASED HUMIDITY. SLIGHTLY COOLER U80S TO AROUND 90 AGAIN AT
COASTAL/BEACH AREAS. ANY CONVECTION DISSIPATES AFTER SS. MILD TUE
NIGHT W/LOWS U60S-M70S.

BOUNDARY WASHES OUT / DISSIPATES OVER THE REGION WED/THU, AS FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL. HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC
POP FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION, AS
ADDITIONAL WEAK PERTURBATIONS PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. CONTINUED
VERY WARM AND STILL MODERATELY HUMID WITH HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE ELEVATED EACH DAY THRU THE PERIOD AND SHOULD
TOP OUT ~ 100 DEG F TUE/WED WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS
INTERIOR SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPDATE...SHOWERS RIDING ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING
SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF ALBEMARLE SOUND. THEREFORE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
IMPACTS TO FLIGHT CONDITIONS AT KECG.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR
SE VA AND NC EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH SOUTH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY BY
THIS AFTN. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS
AT KECG... OTHERWISE THE REMAINING TAF SITES WILL BE DRY DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE WITH
THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS.
BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY... BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT
ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. PREDOMINANTLY S-SW WINDS
WILL AVERAGE AOB 15 KT...BECOMING MORE BREEZY BY THIS AFTN.
LOW-END SCA WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER THE BAY/SOUND AND COASTAL
WATERS NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER...PERSISTING INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 25 KT OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL WATERS.
1-2 FT WAVES BUILD TO 3-4 FT THIS EVENING...AND 2-3 FT SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT. WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL BELOW 15 KT
AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER SEAS WILL BE SLOW
TO DROP BELOW 5 FT UNTIL EARLY AFTN.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE
WITH THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS
BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS. BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY...
BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT (AOB 10 KT) ON WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...EXPECT S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS
2-3 FT (UP TO 4 FT AT TIMES NEAR 20 NM).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ656.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031335
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
935 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN STALLS ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ADJUSTED GRIDS A BIT PER CRNT TRENDS. PCPN NOW WELL SOUTH OF THE
RGN SO DROPPED POPS ACROSS NE NC ZONES FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS. MSAS
INDCTG SFC BNDRY LCTD ACROSS SERN VA SNAKING ITS WAY SW INTO THE
NC PIEDMONT. HIGH RES DATA SUGGESTS SCT CONVECTION DVLPNG ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THIS BNDRY AFTR 18Z...SO KEPT 20-30 POP THERE...
HIGHEST IVOF ALREMARLE SND. CDFRNT REMAINS WELL NW OF FA TDY WITH
SFC TROF DVLMNG OUT AHEAD OF IT. LTST DATA SHOWS LITTLE IF ANY
SPRT FOR CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE. HOT AND A BIT MORE HUMID
WITH HIGHS IN THE L-M90S...XCPT U80S AT THE BEACHES. HEAT INDEX
VALUES XPCTD TO REMAIN BLO 100.

PVS DSCN:
M CLR TO PT CLOUDY TONIGHT. WEAK SHEAR AND BEST FORCING/MOISTURE
REMAINING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANY LINGERING
CONVECTION TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SS. LOWS U60S-L70S EXCEPT
M70S BEACH AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ERN TROUGH SHARPENS A BIT MORE TO ALLOW THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO DROP ACROSS THE FA FROM THE N. BEST DYNAMICS/FORCING
LOOK TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER, LLVL CONVERGENCE,
MOISTURE/RH POOLING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY ALL SEEM TO POINT TOWARD SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING,
WITH BEST AREAL COVERAGE EXPECTED FROM CENTRAL VA OVER TO THE NRN
NECK AND ERN SHORE, WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED. OTW, WILL
CARRY SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE SE FARTHER AWAY FROM BETTER FORCING
AND LIFT. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN 90-95...BUT WL FEEL A BIT HOTTER WITH
INCREASED HUMIDITY. SLIGHTLY COOLER U80S TO AROUND 90 AGAIN AT
COASTAL/BEACH AREAS. ANY CONVECTION DISSIPATES AFTER SS. MILD TUE
NIGHT W/LOWS U60S-M70S.

BOUNDARY WASHES OUT / DISSIPATES OVER THE REGION WED/THU, AS FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL. HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC
POP FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION, AS
ADDITIONAL WEAK PERTURBATIONS PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. CONTINUED
VERY WARM AND STILL MODERATELY HUMID WITH HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE ELEVATED EACH DAY THRU THE PERIOD AND SHOULD
TOP OUT ~ 100 DEG F TUE/WED WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS
INTERIOR SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPDATE...SHOWERS RIDING ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING
SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF ALBEMARLE SOUND. THEREFORE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
IMPACTS TO FLIGHT CONDITIONS AT KECG.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR
SE VA AND NC EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH SOUTH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY BY
THIS AFTN. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS
AT KECG... OTHERWISE THE REMAINING TAF SITES WILL BE DRY DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE WITH
THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS.
BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY... BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT
ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. PREDOMINANTLY S-SW WINDS
WILL AVERAGE AOB 15 KT...BECOMING MORE BREEZY BY THIS AFTN.
LOW-END SCA WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER THE BAY/SOUND AND COASTAL
WATERS NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER...PERSISTING INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 25 KT OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL WATERS.
1-2 FT WAVES BUILD TO 3-4 FT THIS EVENING...AND 2-3 FT SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT. WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL BELOW 15 KT
AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER SEAS WILL BE SLOW
TO DROP BELOW 5 FT UNTIL EARLY AFTN.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE
WITH THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS
BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS. BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY...
BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT (AOB 10 KT) ON WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...EXPECT S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS
2-3 FT (UP TO 4 FT AT TIMES NEAR 20 NM).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ656.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031111
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
711 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST RATIONALE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. H5 UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER JAMES BAY TODAY, AS THE
LEAD UPPER SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS
FEATURE WILL PUSH FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST
TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS, THE SYSTEM WILL DRAG THE
TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE, CLOSER TO HOME...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...PRE-FRONTAL/SFC LEE
TROUGHING WILL SHARPEN TO THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING
FRONT TODAY. ALSO, SFC TROUGH/DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS
BEEN TO OUR SE THIS PAST WEEKEND WILL BE SHUNTED BACK TOWARD THE
AREA BY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING NE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
FROM FL/GA COAST.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING MUCH OF THE AREA DRY
TODAY, A RESULT OF LLVL DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND WARM, DRY AIR ALOFT
WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS DEPICTED OUT AHEAD OF THE RETURNING BOUNDARY
TO THE SOUTH TO WARRANT KEEPING POPS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. HAVE THEREFORE BUMPED POP UPWARD INTO LOW END CHANCE
RANGE FOR SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION LATE AFTN/EVENING ACROSS FAR SE
VA/NE NC.

LLVL THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATE MODEST BUMP UPWARD, BUT DID TEMPER
THAT A BIT WITH COOLER MET GUIDANCE ACROSS THE SE IN EXPECTATION
OF INCREASING CLDS/POSSIBLE TSRAS. HIGHS L-M90S...EXCEPT M-U80S
AT THE BEACHES.

M CLR TO PT CLOUDY TONIGHT. WEAK SHEAR AND BEST FORCING/MOISTURE
REMAINING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANY LINGERING
CONVECTION TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SS. LOWS U60S-L70S EXCEPT
M70S BEACH AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ERN TROUGH SHARPENS A BIT MORE TO ALLOW THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO DROP ACROSS THE FA FROM THE N. BEST DYNAMICS/FORCING
LOOK TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER, LLVL CONVERGENCE,
MOISTURE/RH POOLING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY ALL SEEM TO POINT TOWARD SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING,
WITH BEST AREAL COVERAGE EXPECTED FROM CENTRAL VA OVER TO THE NRN
NECK AND ERN SHORE, WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED. OTW, WILL
CARRY SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE SE FARTHER AWAY FROM BETTER FORCING
AND LIFT. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN 90-95...BUT WL FEEL A BIT HOTTER WITH
INCREASED HUMIDITY. SLIGHTLY COOLER U80S TO AROUND 90 AGAIN AT
COASTAL/BEACH AREAS. ANY CONVECTION DISSIPATES AFTER SS. MILD TUE
NIGHT W/LOWS U60S-M70S.

BOUNDARY WASHES OUT / DISSIPATES OVER THE REGION WED/THU, AS FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL. HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC
POP FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION, AS
ADDITIONAL WEAK PERTURBATIONS PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. CONTINUED
VERY WARM AND STILL MODERATELY HUMID WITH HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE ELEVATED EACH DAY THRU THE PERIOD AND SHOULD
TOP OUT ~ 100 DEG F TUE/WED WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS
INTERIOR SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPDATE...SHOWERS RIDING ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING
SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF ALBEMARLE SOUND. THEREFORE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
IMPACTS TO FLIGHT CONDITIONS AT KECG.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR
SE VA AND NC EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH SOUTH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY BY
THIS AFTN. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS
AT KECG... OTHERWISE THE REMAINING TAF SITES WILL BE DRY DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE WITH
THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS.
BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY... BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT
ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. PREDOMINANTLY S-SW WINDS
WILL AVERAGE AOB 15 KT...BECOMING MORE BREEZY BY THIS AFTN.
LOW-END SCA WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER THE BAY/SOUND AND COASTAL
WATERS NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER...PERSISTING INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 25 KT OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL WATERS.
1-2 FT WAVES BUILD TO 3-4 FT THIS EVENING...AND 2-3 FT SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT. WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL BELOW 15 KT
AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER SEAS WILL BE SLOW
TO DROP BELOW 5 FT UNTIL EARLY AFTN.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE
WITH THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS
BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS. BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY...
BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT (AOB 10 KT) ON WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...EXPECT S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS
2-3 FT (UP TO 4 FT AT TIMES NEAR 20 NM).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ656.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031033
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
633 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST RATIONALE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. H5 UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER JAMES BAY TODAY, AS THE
LEAD UPPER SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS
FEATURE WILL PUSH FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST
TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS, THE SYSTEM WILL DRAG THE
TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE, CLOSER TO HOME...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...PRE-FRONTAL/SFC LEE
TROUGHING WILL SHARPEN TO THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING
FRONT TODAY. ALSO, SFC TROUGH/DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS
BEEN TO OUR SE THIS PAST WEEKEND WILL BE SHUNTED BACK TOWARD THE
AREA BY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING NE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
FROM FL/GA COAST.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING MUCH OF THE AREA DRY
TODAY, A RESULT OF LLVL DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND WARM, DRY AIR ALOFT
WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS DEPICTED OUT AHEAD OF THE RETURNING BOUNDARY
TO THE SOUTH TO WARRANT KEEPING POPS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. HAVE THEREFORE BUMPED POP UPWARD INTO LOW END CHANCE
RANGE FOR SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION LATE AFTN/EVENING ACROSS FAR SE
VA/NE NC.

LLVL THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATE MODEST BUMP UPWARD, BUT DID TEMPER
THAT A BIT WITH COOLER MET GUIDANCE ACROSS THE SE IN EXPECTATION
OF INCREASING CLDS/POSSIBLE TSRAS. HIGHS L-M90S...EXCEPT M-U80S
AT THE BEACHES.

M CLR TO PT CLOUDY TONIGHT. WEAK SHEAR AND BEST FORCING/MOISTURE
REMAINING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANY LINGERING
CONVECTION TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SS. LOWS U60S-L70S EXCEPT
M70S BEACH AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ERN TROUGH SHARPENS A BIT MORE TO ALLOW THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO DROP ACROSS THE FA FROM THE N. BEST DYNAMICS/FORCING
LOOK TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER, LLVL CONVERGENCE,
MOISTURE/RH POOLING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY ALL SEEM TO POINT TOWARD SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING,
WITH BEST AREAL COVERAGE EXPECTED FROM CENTRAL VA OVER TO THE NRN
NECK AND ERN SHORE, WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED. OTW, WILL
CARRY SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE SE FARTHER AWAY FROM BETTER FORCING
AND LIFT. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN 90-95...BUT WL FEEL A BIT HOTTER WITH
INCREASED HUMIDITY. SLIGHTLY COOLER U80S TO AROUND 90 AGAIN AT
COASTAL/BEACH AREAS. ANY CONVECTION DISSIPATES AFTER SS. MILD TUE
NIGHT W/LOWS U60S-M70S.

BOUNDARY WASHES OUT / DISSIPATES OVER THE REGION WED/THU, AS FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL. HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC
POP FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION, AS
ADDITIONAL WEAK PERTURBATIONS PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. CONTINUED
VERY WARM AND STILL MODERATELY HUMID WITH HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE ELEVATED EACH DAY THRU THE PERIOD AND SHOULD
TOP OUT ~ 100 DEG F TUE/WED WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS
INTERIOR SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY WITH SOUTH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY BY THIS AFTN. THERE REMAINS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS AT KECG... OTHERWISE
THE REMAINING TAF SITES WILL BE DRY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE WITH
THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS.
BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY... BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT
ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. PREDOMINANTLY S-SW WINDS
WILL AVERAGE AOB 15 KT...BECOMING MORE BREEZY BY THIS AFTN.
LOW-END SCA WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER THE BAY/SOUND AND COASTAL
WATERS NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER...PERSISTING INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 25 KT OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL WATERS.
1-2 FT WAVES BUILD TO 3-4 FT THIS EVENING...AND 2-3 FT SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT. WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL BELOW 15 KT
AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER SEAS WILL BE SLOW
TO DROP BELOW 5 FT UNTIL EARLY AFTN.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE
WITH THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS
BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS. BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY...
BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT (AOB 10 KT) ON WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...EXPECT S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS
2-3 FT (UP TO 4 FT AT TIMES NEAR 20 NM).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ656.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031033
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
633 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST RATIONALE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. H5 UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER JAMES BAY TODAY, AS THE
LEAD UPPER SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS
FEATURE WILL PUSH FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST
TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS, THE SYSTEM WILL DRAG THE
TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE, CLOSER TO HOME...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...PRE-FRONTAL/SFC LEE
TROUGHING WILL SHARPEN TO THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING
FRONT TODAY. ALSO, SFC TROUGH/DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS
BEEN TO OUR SE THIS PAST WEEKEND WILL BE SHUNTED BACK TOWARD THE
AREA BY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING NE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
FROM FL/GA COAST.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING MUCH OF THE AREA DRY
TODAY, A RESULT OF LLVL DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND WARM, DRY AIR ALOFT
WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS DEPICTED OUT AHEAD OF THE RETURNING BOUNDARY
TO THE SOUTH TO WARRANT KEEPING POPS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. HAVE THEREFORE BUMPED POP UPWARD INTO LOW END CHANCE
RANGE FOR SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION LATE AFTN/EVENING ACROSS FAR SE
VA/NE NC.

LLVL THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATE MODEST BUMP UPWARD, BUT DID TEMPER
THAT A BIT WITH COOLER MET GUIDANCE ACROSS THE SE IN EXPECTATION
OF INCREASING CLDS/POSSIBLE TSRAS. HIGHS L-M90S...EXCEPT M-U80S
AT THE BEACHES.

M CLR TO PT CLOUDY TONIGHT. WEAK SHEAR AND BEST FORCING/MOISTURE
REMAINING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANY LINGERING
CONVECTION TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SS. LOWS U60S-L70S EXCEPT
M70S BEACH AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ERN TROUGH SHARPENS A BIT MORE TO ALLOW THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO DROP ACROSS THE FA FROM THE N. BEST DYNAMICS/FORCING
LOOK TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER, LLVL CONVERGENCE,
MOISTURE/RH POOLING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY ALL SEEM TO POINT TOWARD SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING,
WITH BEST AREAL COVERAGE EXPECTED FROM CENTRAL VA OVER TO THE NRN
NECK AND ERN SHORE, WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED. OTW, WILL
CARRY SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE SE FARTHER AWAY FROM BETTER FORCING
AND LIFT. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN 90-95...BUT WL FEEL A BIT HOTTER WITH
INCREASED HUMIDITY. SLIGHTLY COOLER U80S TO AROUND 90 AGAIN AT
COASTAL/BEACH AREAS. ANY CONVECTION DISSIPATES AFTER SS. MILD TUE
NIGHT W/LOWS U60S-M70S.

BOUNDARY WASHES OUT / DISSIPATES OVER THE REGION WED/THU, AS FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL. HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC
POP FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION, AS
ADDITIONAL WEAK PERTURBATIONS PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. CONTINUED
VERY WARM AND STILL MODERATELY HUMID WITH HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE ELEVATED EACH DAY THRU THE PERIOD AND SHOULD
TOP OUT ~ 100 DEG F TUE/WED WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS
INTERIOR SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY WITH SOUTH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY BY THIS AFTN. THERE REMAINS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS AT KECG... OTHERWISE
THE REMAINING TAF SITES WILL BE DRY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE WITH
THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS.
BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY... BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT
ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. PREDOMINANTLY S-SW WINDS
WILL AVERAGE AOB 15 KT...BECOMING MORE BREEZY BY THIS AFTN.
LOW-END SCA WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER THE BAY/SOUND AND COASTAL
WATERS NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER...PERSISTING INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 25 KT OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL WATERS.
1-2 FT WAVES BUILD TO 3-4 FT THIS EVENING...AND 2-3 FT SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT. WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL BELOW 15 KT
AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER SEAS WILL BE SLOW
TO DROP BELOW 5 FT UNTIL EARLY AFTN.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE
WITH THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS
BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS. BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY...
BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT (AOB 10 KT) ON WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...EXPECT S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS
2-3 FT (UP TO 4 FT AT TIMES NEAR 20 NM).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ656.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031033
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
633 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST RATIONALE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. H5 UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER JAMES BAY TODAY, AS THE
LEAD UPPER SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS
FEATURE WILL PUSH FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST
TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS, THE SYSTEM WILL DRAG THE
TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE, CLOSER TO HOME...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...PRE-FRONTAL/SFC LEE
TROUGHING WILL SHARPEN TO THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING
FRONT TODAY. ALSO, SFC TROUGH/DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS
BEEN TO OUR SE THIS PAST WEEKEND WILL BE SHUNTED BACK TOWARD THE
AREA BY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING NE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
FROM FL/GA COAST.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING MUCH OF THE AREA DRY
TODAY, A RESULT OF LLVL DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND WARM, DRY AIR ALOFT
WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS DEPICTED OUT AHEAD OF THE RETURNING BOUNDARY
TO THE SOUTH TO WARRANT KEEPING POPS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. HAVE THEREFORE BUMPED POP UPWARD INTO LOW END CHANCE
RANGE FOR SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION LATE AFTN/EVENING ACROSS FAR SE
VA/NE NC.

LLVL THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATE MODEST BUMP UPWARD, BUT DID TEMPER
THAT A BIT WITH COOLER MET GUIDANCE ACROSS THE SE IN EXPECTATION
OF INCREASING CLDS/POSSIBLE TSRAS. HIGHS L-M90S...EXCEPT M-U80S
AT THE BEACHES.

M CLR TO PT CLOUDY TONIGHT. WEAK SHEAR AND BEST FORCING/MOISTURE
REMAINING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANY LINGERING
CONVECTION TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SS. LOWS U60S-L70S EXCEPT
M70S BEACH AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ERN TROUGH SHARPENS A BIT MORE TO ALLOW THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO DROP ACROSS THE FA FROM THE N. BEST DYNAMICS/FORCING
LOOK TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER, LLVL CONVERGENCE,
MOISTURE/RH POOLING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY ALL SEEM TO POINT TOWARD SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING,
WITH BEST AREAL COVERAGE EXPECTED FROM CENTRAL VA OVER TO THE NRN
NECK AND ERN SHORE, WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED. OTW, WILL
CARRY SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE SE FARTHER AWAY FROM BETTER FORCING
AND LIFT. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN 90-95...BUT WL FEEL A BIT HOTTER WITH
INCREASED HUMIDITY. SLIGHTLY COOLER U80S TO AROUND 90 AGAIN AT
COASTAL/BEACH AREAS. ANY CONVECTION DISSIPATES AFTER SS. MILD TUE
NIGHT W/LOWS U60S-M70S.

BOUNDARY WASHES OUT / DISSIPATES OVER THE REGION WED/THU, AS FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL. HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC
POP FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION, AS
ADDITIONAL WEAK PERTURBATIONS PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. CONTINUED
VERY WARM AND STILL MODERATELY HUMID WITH HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE ELEVATED EACH DAY THRU THE PERIOD AND SHOULD
TOP OUT ~ 100 DEG F TUE/WED WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS
INTERIOR SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY WITH SOUTH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY BY THIS AFTN. THERE REMAINS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS AT KECG... OTHERWISE
THE REMAINING TAF SITES WILL BE DRY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE WITH
THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS.
BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY... BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT
ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. PREDOMINANTLY S-SW WINDS
WILL AVERAGE AOB 15 KT...BECOMING MORE BREEZY BY THIS AFTN.
LOW-END SCA WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER THE BAY/SOUND AND COASTAL
WATERS NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER...PERSISTING INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 25 KT OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL WATERS.
1-2 FT WAVES BUILD TO 3-4 FT THIS EVENING...AND 2-3 FT SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT. WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL BELOW 15 KT
AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER SEAS WILL BE SLOW
TO DROP BELOW 5 FT UNTIL EARLY AFTN.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE
WITH THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS
BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS. BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY...
BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT (AOB 10 KT) ON WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...EXPECT S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS
2-3 FT (UP TO 4 FT AT TIMES NEAR 20 NM).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ656.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031033
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
633 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST RATIONALE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. H5 UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER JAMES BAY TODAY, AS THE
LEAD UPPER SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS
FEATURE WILL PUSH FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST
TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS, THE SYSTEM WILL DRAG THE
TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE, CLOSER TO HOME...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...PRE-FRONTAL/SFC LEE
TROUGHING WILL SHARPEN TO THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING
FRONT TODAY. ALSO, SFC TROUGH/DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS
BEEN TO OUR SE THIS PAST WEEKEND WILL BE SHUNTED BACK TOWARD THE
AREA BY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING NE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
FROM FL/GA COAST.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING MUCH OF THE AREA DRY
TODAY, A RESULT OF LLVL DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND WARM, DRY AIR ALOFT
WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS DEPICTED OUT AHEAD OF THE RETURNING BOUNDARY
TO THE SOUTH TO WARRANT KEEPING POPS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. HAVE THEREFORE BUMPED POP UPWARD INTO LOW END CHANCE
RANGE FOR SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION LATE AFTN/EVENING ACROSS FAR SE
VA/NE NC.

LLVL THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATE MODEST BUMP UPWARD, BUT DID TEMPER
THAT A BIT WITH COOLER MET GUIDANCE ACROSS THE SE IN EXPECTATION
OF INCREASING CLDS/POSSIBLE TSRAS. HIGHS L-M90S...EXCEPT M-U80S
AT THE BEACHES.

M CLR TO PT CLOUDY TONIGHT. WEAK SHEAR AND BEST FORCING/MOISTURE
REMAINING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANY LINGERING
CONVECTION TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SS. LOWS U60S-L70S EXCEPT
M70S BEACH AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ERN TROUGH SHARPENS A BIT MORE TO ALLOW THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO DROP ACROSS THE FA FROM THE N. BEST DYNAMICS/FORCING
LOOK TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER, LLVL CONVERGENCE,
MOISTURE/RH POOLING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY ALL SEEM TO POINT TOWARD SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING,
WITH BEST AREAL COVERAGE EXPECTED FROM CENTRAL VA OVER TO THE NRN
NECK AND ERN SHORE, WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED. OTW, WILL
CARRY SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE SE FARTHER AWAY FROM BETTER FORCING
AND LIFT. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN 90-95...BUT WL FEEL A BIT HOTTER WITH
INCREASED HUMIDITY. SLIGHTLY COOLER U80S TO AROUND 90 AGAIN AT
COASTAL/BEACH AREAS. ANY CONVECTION DISSIPATES AFTER SS. MILD TUE
NIGHT W/LOWS U60S-M70S.

BOUNDARY WASHES OUT / DISSIPATES OVER THE REGION WED/THU, AS FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL. HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC
POP FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION, AS
ADDITIONAL WEAK PERTURBATIONS PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. CONTINUED
VERY WARM AND STILL MODERATELY HUMID WITH HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE ELEVATED EACH DAY THRU THE PERIOD AND SHOULD
TOP OUT ~ 100 DEG F TUE/WED WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS
INTERIOR SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY WITH SOUTH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY BY THIS AFTN. THERE REMAINS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS AT KECG... OTHERWISE
THE REMAINING TAF SITES WILL BE DRY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE WITH
THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS.
BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY... BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT
ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. PREDOMINANTLY S-SW WINDS
WILL AVERAGE AOB 15 KT...BECOMING MORE BREEZY BY THIS AFTN.
LOW-END SCA WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER THE BAY/SOUND AND COASTAL
WATERS NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER...PERSISTING INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 25 KT OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL WATERS.
1-2 FT WAVES BUILD TO 3-4 FT THIS EVENING...AND 2-3 FT SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT. WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL BELOW 15 KT
AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER SEAS WILL BE SLOW
TO DROP BELOW 5 FT UNTIL EARLY AFTN.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE
WITH THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS
BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS. BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY...
BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT (AOB 10 KT) ON WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...EXPECT S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS
2-3 FT (UP TO 4 FT AT TIMES NEAR 20 NM).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ656.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031033
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
633 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST RATIONALE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. H5 UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER JAMES BAY TODAY, AS THE
LEAD UPPER SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS
FEATURE WILL PUSH FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST
TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS, THE SYSTEM WILL DRAG THE
TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE, CLOSER TO HOME...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...PRE-FRONTAL/SFC LEE
TROUGHING WILL SHARPEN TO THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING
FRONT TODAY. ALSO, SFC TROUGH/DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS
BEEN TO OUR SE THIS PAST WEEKEND WILL BE SHUNTED BACK TOWARD THE
AREA BY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING NE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
FROM FL/GA COAST.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING MUCH OF THE AREA DRY
TODAY, A RESULT OF LLVL DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND WARM, DRY AIR ALOFT
WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS DEPICTED OUT AHEAD OF THE RETURNING BOUNDARY
TO THE SOUTH TO WARRANT KEEPING POPS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. HAVE THEREFORE BUMPED POP UPWARD INTO LOW END CHANCE
RANGE FOR SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION LATE AFTN/EVENING ACROSS FAR SE
VA/NE NC.

LLVL THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATE MODEST BUMP UPWARD, BUT DID TEMPER
THAT A BIT WITH COOLER MET GUIDANCE ACROSS THE SE IN EXPECTATION
OF INCREASING CLDS/POSSIBLE TSRAS. HIGHS L-M90S...EXCEPT M-U80S
AT THE BEACHES.

M CLR TO PT CLOUDY TONIGHT. WEAK SHEAR AND BEST FORCING/MOISTURE
REMAINING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANY LINGERING
CONVECTION TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SS. LOWS U60S-L70S EXCEPT
M70S BEACH AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ERN TROUGH SHARPENS A BIT MORE TO ALLOW THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO DROP ACROSS THE FA FROM THE N. BEST DYNAMICS/FORCING
LOOK TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER, LLVL CONVERGENCE,
MOISTURE/RH POOLING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY ALL SEEM TO POINT TOWARD SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING,
WITH BEST AREAL COVERAGE EXPECTED FROM CENTRAL VA OVER TO THE NRN
NECK AND ERN SHORE, WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED. OTW, WILL
CARRY SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE SE FARTHER AWAY FROM BETTER FORCING
AND LIFT. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN 90-95...BUT WL FEEL A BIT HOTTER WITH
INCREASED HUMIDITY. SLIGHTLY COOLER U80S TO AROUND 90 AGAIN AT
COASTAL/BEACH AREAS. ANY CONVECTION DISSIPATES AFTER SS. MILD TUE
NIGHT W/LOWS U60S-M70S.

BOUNDARY WASHES OUT / DISSIPATES OVER THE REGION WED/THU, AS FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL. HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC
POP FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION, AS
ADDITIONAL WEAK PERTURBATIONS PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. CONTINUED
VERY WARM AND STILL MODERATELY HUMID WITH HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE ELEVATED EACH DAY THRU THE PERIOD AND SHOULD
TOP OUT ~ 100 DEG F TUE/WED WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS
INTERIOR SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY WITH SOUTH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY BY THIS AFTN. THERE REMAINS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS AT KECG... OTHERWISE
THE REMAINING TAF SITES WILL BE DRY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE WITH
THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS.
BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY... BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT
ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. PREDOMINANTLY S-SW WINDS
WILL AVERAGE AOB 15 KT...BECOMING MORE BREEZY BY THIS AFTN.
LOW-END SCA WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER THE BAY/SOUND AND COASTAL
WATERS NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER...PERSISTING INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 25 KT OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL WATERS.
1-2 FT WAVES BUILD TO 3-4 FT THIS EVENING...AND 2-3 FT SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT. WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL BELOW 15 KT
AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER SEAS WILL BE SLOW
TO DROP BELOW 5 FT UNTIL EARLY AFTN.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE
WITH THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS
BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS. BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY...
BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT (AOB 10 KT) ON WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...EXPECT S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS
2-3 FT (UP TO 4 FT AT TIMES NEAR 20 NM).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ656.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031033
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
633 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST RATIONALE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. H5 UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER JAMES BAY TODAY, AS THE
LEAD UPPER SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS
FEATURE WILL PUSH FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST
TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS, THE SYSTEM WILL DRAG THE
TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE, CLOSER TO HOME...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...PRE-FRONTAL/SFC LEE
TROUGHING WILL SHARPEN TO THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING
FRONT TODAY. ALSO, SFC TROUGH/DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS
BEEN TO OUR SE THIS PAST WEEKEND WILL BE SHUNTED BACK TOWARD THE
AREA BY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING NE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
FROM FL/GA COAST.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING MUCH OF THE AREA DRY
TODAY, A RESULT OF LLVL DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND WARM, DRY AIR ALOFT
WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS DEPICTED OUT AHEAD OF THE RETURNING BOUNDARY
TO THE SOUTH TO WARRANT KEEPING POPS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. HAVE THEREFORE BUMPED POP UPWARD INTO LOW END CHANCE
RANGE FOR SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION LATE AFTN/EVENING ACROSS FAR SE
VA/NE NC.

LLVL THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATE MODEST BUMP UPWARD, BUT DID TEMPER
THAT A BIT WITH COOLER MET GUIDANCE ACROSS THE SE IN EXPECTATION
OF INCREASING CLDS/POSSIBLE TSRAS. HIGHS L-M90S...EXCEPT M-U80S
AT THE BEACHES.

M CLR TO PT CLOUDY TONIGHT. WEAK SHEAR AND BEST FORCING/MOISTURE
REMAINING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANY LINGERING
CONVECTION TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SS. LOWS U60S-L70S EXCEPT
M70S BEACH AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ERN TROUGH SHARPENS A BIT MORE TO ALLOW THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO DROP ACROSS THE FA FROM THE N. BEST DYNAMICS/FORCING
LOOK TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER, LLVL CONVERGENCE,
MOISTURE/RH POOLING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY ALL SEEM TO POINT TOWARD SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING,
WITH BEST AREAL COVERAGE EXPECTED FROM CENTRAL VA OVER TO THE NRN
NECK AND ERN SHORE, WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED. OTW, WILL
CARRY SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE SE FARTHER AWAY FROM BETTER FORCING
AND LIFT. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN 90-95...BUT WL FEEL A BIT HOTTER WITH
INCREASED HUMIDITY. SLIGHTLY COOLER U80S TO AROUND 90 AGAIN AT
COASTAL/BEACH AREAS. ANY CONVECTION DISSIPATES AFTER SS. MILD TUE
NIGHT W/LOWS U60S-M70S.

BOUNDARY WASHES OUT / DISSIPATES OVER THE REGION WED/THU, AS FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL. HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC
POP FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION, AS
ADDITIONAL WEAK PERTURBATIONS PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. CONTINUED
VERY WARM AND STILL MODERATELY HUMID WITH HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE ELEVATED EACH DAY THRU THE PERIOD AND SHOULD
TOP OUT ~ 100 DEG F TUE/WED WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS
INTERIOR SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY WITH SOUTH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY BY THIS AFTN. THERE REMAINS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS AT KECG... OTHERWISE
THE REMAINING TAF SITES WILL BE DRY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE WITH
THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS.
BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY... BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT
ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. PREDOMINANTLY S-SW WINDS
WILL AVERAGE AOB 15 KT...BECOMING MORE BREEZY BY THIS AFTN.
LOW-END SCA WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER THE BAY/SOUND AND COASTAL
WATERS NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER...PERSISTING INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 25 KT OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL WATERS.
1-2 FT WAVES BUILD TO 3-4 FT THIS EVENING...AND 2-3 FT SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT. WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL BELOW 15 KT
AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER SEAS WILL BE SLOW
TO DROP BELOW 5 FT UNTIL EARLY AFTN.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE
WITH THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS
BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS. BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY...
BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT (AOB 10 KT) ON WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...EXPECT S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS
2-3 FT (UP TO 4 FT AT TIMES NEAR 20 NM).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ656.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031024
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
624 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST RATIONALE IN EITHER THE NEAR/SHORT
TERM PERIOD. H5 UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER JAMES BAY. LEAD
UPPER SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW EMBEDDED IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE
NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS, THE SYSTEM WILL DRAG
TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE, SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
HOWEVER...PRE-FRONTAL/SFC LEE TROUGHING WILL SHARPEN TO THE WEST
IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING FRONT. ALSO, SFC TROUGH/DIFFUSE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN TO OUR SE THIS PAST WEEKEND WILL BE SHUNTED
BACK TOWARD THE AREA BY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING NE ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS FROM FL/GA COAST.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING MUCH OF THE AREA DRY
TODAY, A RESULT OF LLVL DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND WARM, DRY AIR ALOFT
WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS DEPICTED OUT AHEAD OF THE RETURNING BOUNDARY
TO THE SOUTH TO WARRANT KEEPING POPS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. HAVE THEREFORE BUMPED POP UPWARD INTO LOW END CHANCE
RANGE FOR SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION LATE AFTN/EVENING ACROSS FAR SE
VA/NE NC.

LLVL THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATE MODEST BUMP UPWARD, BUT DID TEMPER
THAT A BIT WITH COOLER MET GUIDANCE ACROSS THE SE IN EXPECTATION
OF INCREASING CLDS/POSSIBLE TSRAS. HIGHS L-M90S...EXCEPT M-U80S
AT THE BEACHES.

M CLR TO PT CLOUDY TONIGHT. WEAK SHEAR AND BEST FORCING/MOISTURE
REMAINING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANY LINGERING
CONVECTION TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SS. LOWS U60S-L70S EXCEPT
M70S BEACH AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ERN TROUGH SHARPENS A BIT MORE TO ALLOW THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO DROP ACROSS THE FA FROM THE N. BEST DYNAMICS/FORCING
LOOK TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER, LLVL CONVERGENCE,
MOISTURE/RH POOLING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY ALL SEEM TO POINT TOWARD SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING,
WITH BEST AREAL COVERAGE EXPECTED FROM CENTRAL VA OVER TO THE NRN
NECK AND ERN SHORE, WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED. OTW, WILL
CARRY SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE SE FARTHER AWAY FROM BETTER FORCING
AND LIFT. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN 90-95...BUT WL FEEL A BIT HOTTER WITH
INCREASED HUMIDITY. SLIGHTLY COOLER U80S TO AROUND 90 AGAIN AT
COASTAL/BEACH AREAS. ANY CONVECTION DISSIPATES AFTER SS. MILD TUE
NIGHT W/LOWS U60S-M70S.

BOUNDARY WASHES OUT / DISSIPATES OVER THE REGION WED/THU, AS FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL. HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC
POP FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION, AS
ADDITIONAL WEAK PERTURBATIONS PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. CONTINUED
VERY WARM AND STILL MODERATELY HUMID WITH HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE ELEVATED EACH DAY THRU THE PERIOD AND SHOULD
TOP OUT ~ 100 DEG F TUE/WED WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS
INTERIOR SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY WITH SOUTH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY BY THIS AFTN. THERE REMAINS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS AT KECG... OTHERWISE
THE REMAINING TAF SITES WILL BE DRY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE WITH
THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS.
BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY... BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT
ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. PREDOMINANTLY S-SW WINDS
WILL AVERAGE AOB 15 KT...BECOMING MORE BREEZY BY THIS AFTN.
LOW-END SCA WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER THE BAY/SOUND AND COASTAL
WATERS NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER...PERSISTING INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 25 KT OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL WATERS.
1-2 FT WAVES BUILD TO 3-4 FT THIS EVENING...AND 2-3 FT SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT. WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL BELOW 15 KT
AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER SEAS WILL BE SLOW
TO DROP BELOW 5 FT UNTIL EARLY AFTN.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE
WITH THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS
BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS. BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY...
BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT (AOB 10 KT) ON WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...EXPECT S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS
2-3 FT (UP TO 4 FT AT TIMES NEAR 20 NM).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ656.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031024
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
624 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST RATIONALE IN EITHER THE NEAR/SHORT
TERM PERIOD. H5 UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER JAMES BAY. LEAD
UPPER SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW EMBEDDED IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE
NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS, THE SYSTEM WILL DRAG
TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE, SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
HOWEVER...PRE-FRONTAL/SFC LEE TROUGHING WILL SHARPEN TO THE WEST
IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING FRONT. ALSO, SFC TROUGH/DIFFUSE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN TO OUR SE THIS PAST WEEKEND WILL BE SHUNTED
BACK TOWARD THE AREA BY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING NE ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS FROM FL/GA COAST.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING MUCH OF THE AREA DRY
TODAY, A RESULT OF LLVL DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND WARM, DRY AIR ALOFT
WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS DEPICTED OUT AHEAD OF THE RETURNING BOUNDARY
TO THE SOUTH TO WARRANT KEEPING POPS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. HAVE THEREFORE BUMPED POP UPWARD INTO LOW END CHANCE
RANGE FOR SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION LATE AFTN/EVENING ACROSS FAR SE
VA/NE NC.

LLVL THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATE MODEST BUMP UPWARD, BUT DID TEMPER
THAT A BIT WITH COOLER MET GUIDANCE ACROSS THE SE IN EXPECTATION
OF INCREASING CLDS/POSSIBLE TSRAS. HIGHS L-M90S...EXCEPT M-U80S
AT THE BEACHES.

M CLR TO PT CLOUDY TONIGHT. WEAK SHEAR AND BEST FORCING/MOISTURE
REMAINING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANY LINGERING
CONVECTION TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SS. LOWS U60S-L70S EXCEPT
M70S BEACH AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ERN TROUGH SHARPENS A BIT MORE TO ALLOW THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO DROP ACROSS THE FA FROM THE N. BEST DYNAMICS/FORCING
LOOK TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER, LLVL CONVERGENCE,
MOISTURE/RH POOLING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY ALL SEEM TO POINT TOWARD SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING,
WITH BEST AREAL COVERAGE EXPECTED FROM CENTRAL VA OVER TO THE NRN
NECK AND ERN SHORE, WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED. OTW, WILL
CARRY SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE SE FARTHER AWAY FROM BETTER FORCING
AND LIFT. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN 90-95...BUT WL FEEL A BIT HOTTER WITH
INCREASED HUMIDITY. SLIGHTLY COOLER U80S TO AROUND 90 AGAIN AT
COASTAL/BEACH AREAS. ANY CONVECTION DISSIPATES AFTER SS. MILD TUE
NIGHT W/LOWS U60S-M70S.

BOUNDARY WASHES OUT / DISSIPATES OVER THE REGION WED/THU, AS FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL. HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC
POP FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION, AS
ADDITIONAL WEAK PERTURBATIONS PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. CONTINUED
VERY WARM AND STILL MODERATELY HUMID WITH HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE ELEVATED EACH DAY THRU THE PERIOD AND SHOULD
TOP OUT ~ 100 DEG F TUE/WED WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS
INTERIOR SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY WITH SOUTH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY BY THIS AFTN. THERE REMAINS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS AT KECG... OTHERWISE
THE REMAINING TAF SITES WILL BE DRY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE WITH
THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS.
BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY... BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT
ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. PREDOMINANTLY S-SW WINDS
WILL AVERAGE AOB 15 KT...BECOMING MORE BREEZY BY THIS AFTN.
LOW-END SCA WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER THE BAY/SOUND AND COASTAL
WATERS NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER...PERSISTING INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 25 KT OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL WATERS.
1-2 FT WAVES BUILD TO 3-4 FT THIS EVENING...AND 2-3 FT SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT. WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL BELOW 15 KT
AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER SEAS WILL BE SLOW
TO DROP BELOW 5 FT UNTIL EARLY AFTN.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE
WITH THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS
BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS. BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY...
BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT (AOB 10 KT) ON WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...EXPECT S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS
2-3 FT (UP TO 4 FT AT TIMES NEAR 20 NM).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ656.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031024
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
624 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST RATIONALE IN EITHER THE NEAR/SHORT
TERM PERIOD. H5 UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER JAMES BAY. LEAD
UPPER SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW EMBEDDED IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE
NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS, THE SYSTEM WILL DRAG
TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE, SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
HOWEVER...PRE-FRONTAL/SFC LEE TROUGHING WILL SHARPEN TO THE WEST
IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING FRONT. ALSO, SFC TROUGH/DIFFUSE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN TO OUR SE THIS PAST WEEKEND WILL BE SHUNTED
BACK TOWARD THE AREA BY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING NE ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS FROM FL/GA COAST.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING MUCH OF THE AREA DRY
TODAY, A RESULT OF LLVL DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND WARM, DRY AIR ALOFT
WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS DEPICTED OUT AHEAD OF THE RETURNING BOUNDARY
TO THE SOUTH TO WARRANT KEEPING POPS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. HAVE THEREFORE BUMPED POP UPWARD INTO LOW END CHANCE
RANGE FOR SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION LATE AFTN/EVENING ACROSS FAR SE
VA/NE NC.

LLVL THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATE MODEST BUMP UPWARD, BUT DID TEMPER
THAT A BIT WITH COOLER MET GUIDANCE ACROSS THE SE IN EXPECTATION
OF INCREASING CLDS/POSSIBLE TSRAS. HIGHS L-M90S...EXCEPT M-U80S
AT THE BEACHES.

M CLR TO PT CLOUDY TONIGHT. WEAK SHEAR AND BEST FORCING/MOISTURE
REMAINING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANY LINGERING
CONVECTION TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SS. LOWS U60S-L70S EXCEPT
M70S BEACH AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ERN TROUGH SHARPENS A BIT MORE TO ALLOW THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO DROP ACROSS THE FA FROM THE N. BEST DYNAMICS/FORCING
LOOK TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER, LLVL CONVERGENCE,
MOISTURE/RH POOLING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY ALL SEEM TO POINT TOWARD SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING,
WITH BEST AREAL COVERAGE EXPECTED FROM CENTRAL VA OVER TO THE NRN
NECK AND ERN SHORE, WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED. OTW, WILL
CARRY SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE SE FARTHER AWAY FROM BETTER FORCING
AND LIFT. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN 90-95...BUT WL FEEL A BIT HOTTER WITH
INCREASED HUMIDITY. SLIGHTLY COOLER U80S TO AROUND 90 AGAIN AT
COASTAL/BEACH AREAS. ANY CONVECTION DISSIPATES AFTER SS. MILD TUE
NIGHT W/LOWS U60S-M70S.

BOUNDARY WASHES OUT / DISSIPATES OVER THE REGION WED/THU, AS FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL. HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC
POP FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION, AS
ADDITIONAL WEAK PERTURBATIONS PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. CONTINUED
VERY WARM AND STILL MODERATELY HUMID WITH HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE ELEVATED EACH DAY THRU THE PERIOD AND SHOULD
TOP OUT ~ 100 DEG F TUE/WED WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS
INTERIOR SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY WITH SOUTH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY BY THIS AFTN. THERE REMAINS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS AT KECG... OTHERWISE
THE REMAINING TAF SITES WILL BE DRY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE WITH
THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS.
BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY... BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT
ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. PREDOMINANTLY S-SW WINDS
WILL AVERAGE AOB 15 KT...BECOMING MORE BREEZY BY THIS AFTN.
LOW-END SCA WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER THE BAY/SOUND AND COASTAL
WATERS NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER...PERSISTING INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 25 KT OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL WATERS.
1-2 FT WAVES BUILD TO 3-4 FT THIS EVENING...AND 2-3 FT SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT. WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL BELOW 15 KT
AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER SEAS WILL BE SLOW
TO DROP BELOW 5 FT UNTIL EARLY AFTN.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE
WITH THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS
BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS. BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY...
BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT (AOB 10 KT) ON WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...EXPECT S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS
2-3 FT (UP TO 4 FT AT TIMES NEAR 20 NM).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ656.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031024
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
624 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST RATIONALE IN EITHER THE NEAR/SHORT
TERM PERIOD. H5 UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER JAMES BAY. LEAD
UPPER SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW EMBEDDED IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE
NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS, THE SYSTEM WILL DRAG
TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE, SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
HOWEVER...PRE-FRONTAL/SFC LEE TROUGHING WILL SHARPEN TO THE WEST
IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING FRONT. ALSO, SFC TROUGH/DIFFUSE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN TO OUR SE THIS PAST WEEKEND WILL BE SHUNTED
BACK TOWARD THE AREA BY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING NE ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS FROM FL/GA COAST.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING MUCH OF THE AREA DRY
TODAY, A RESULT OF LLVL DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND WARM, DRY AIR ALOFT
WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS DEPICTED OUT AHEAD OF THE RETURNING BOUNDARY
TO THE SOUTH TO WARRANT KEEPING POPS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. HAVE THEREFORE BUMPED POP UPWARD INTO LOW END CHANCE
RANGE FOR SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION LATE AFTN/EVENING ACROSS FAR SE
VA/NE NC.

LLVL THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATE MODEST BUMP UPWARD, BUT DID TEMPER
THAT A BIT WITH COOLER MET GUIDANCE ACROSS THE SE IN EXPECTATION
OF INCREASING CLDS/POSSIBLE TSRAS. HIGHS L-M90S...EXCEPT M-U80S
AT THE BEACHES.

M CLR TO PT CLOUDY TONIGHT. WEAK SHEAR AND BEST FORCING/MOISTURE
REMAINING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANY LINGERING
CONVECTION TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SS. LOWS U60S-L70S EXCEPT
M70S BEACH AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ERN TROUGH SHARPENS A BIT MORE TO ALLOW THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO DROP ACROSS THE FA FROM THE N. BEST DYNAMICS/FORCING
LOOK TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER, LLVL CONVERGENCE,
MOISTURE/RH POOLING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY ALL SEEM TO POINT TOWARD SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING,
WITH BEST AREAL COVERAGE EXPECTED FROM CENTRAL VA OVER TO THE NRN
NECK AND ERN SHORE, WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED. OTW, WILL
CARRY SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE SE FARTHER AWAY FROM BETTER FORCING
AND LIFT. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN 90-95...BUT WL FEEL A BIT HOTTER WITH
INCREASED HUMIDITY. SLIGHTLY COOLER U80S TO AROUND 90 AGAIN AT
COASTAL/BEACH AREAS. ANY CONVECTION DISSIPATES AFTER SS. MILD TUE
NIGHT W/LOWS U60S-M70S.

BOUNDARY WASHES OUT / DISSIPATES OVER THE REGION WED/THU, AS FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL. HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC
POP FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION, AS
ADDITIONAL WEAK PERTURBATIONS PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. CONTINUED
VERY WARM AND STILL MODERATELY HUMID WITH HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE ELEVATED EACH DAY THRU THE PERIOD AND SHOULD
TOP OUT ~ 100 DEG F TUE/WED WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS
INTERIOR SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY WITH SOUTH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY BY THIS AFTN. THERE REMAINS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS AT KECG... OTHERWISE
THE REMAINING TAF SITES WILL BE DRY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE WITH
THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS.
BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY... BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT
ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. PREDOMINANTLY S-SW WINDS
WILL AVERAGE AOB 15 KT...BECOMING MORE BREEZY BY THIS AFTN.
LOW-END SCA WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER THE BAY/SOUND AND COASTAL
WATERS NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER...PERSISTING INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 25 KT OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL WATERS.
1-2 FT WAVES BUILD TO 3-4 FT THIS EVENING...AND 2-3 FT SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT. WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL BELOW 15 KT
AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER SEAS WILL BE SLOW
TO DROP BELOW 5 FT UNTIL EARLY AFTN.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE
WITH THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS
BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS. BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY...
BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT (AOB 10 KT) ON WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...EXPECT S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS
2-3 FT (UP TO 4 FT AT TIMES NEAR 20 NM).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ656.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031024
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
624 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST RATIONALE IN EITHER THE NEAR/SHORT
TERM PERIOD. H5 UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER JAMES BAY. LEAD
UPPER SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW EMBEDDED IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE
NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS, THE SYSTEM WILL DRAG
TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE, SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
HOWEVER...PRE-FRONTAL/SFC LEE TROUGHING WILL SHARPEN TO THE WEST
IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING FRONT. ALSO, SFC TROUGH/DIFFUSE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN TO OUR SE THIS PAST WEEKEND WILL BE SHUNTED
BACK TOWARD THE AREA BY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING NE ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS FROM FL/GA COAST.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING MUCH OF THE AREA DRY
TODAY, A RESULT OF LLVL DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND WARM, DRY AIR ALOFT
WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS DEPICTED OUT AHEAD OF THE RETURNING BOUNDARY
TO THE SOUTH TO WARRANT KEEPING POPS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. HAVE THEREFORE BUMPED POP UPWARD INTO LOW END CHANCE
RANGE FOR SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION LATE AFTN/EVENING ACROSS FAR SE
VA/NE NC.

LLVL THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATE MODEST BUMP UPWARD, BUT DID TEMPER
THAT A BIT WITH COOLER MET GUIDANCE ACROSS THE SE IN EXPECTATION
OF INCREASING CLDS/POSSIBLE TSRAS. HIGHS L-M90S...EXCEPT M-U80S
AT THE BEACHES.

M CLR TO PT CLOUDY TONIGHT. WEAK SHEAR AND BEST FORCING/MOISTURE
REMAINING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANY LINGERING
CONVECTION TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SS. LOWS U60S-L70S EXCEPT
M70S BEACH AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ERN TROUGH SHARPENS A BIT MORE TO ALLOW THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO DROP ACROSS THE FA FROM THE N. BEST DYNAMICS/FORCING
LOOK TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER, LLVL CONVERGENCE,
MOISTURE/RH POOLING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY ALL SEEM TO POINT TOWARD SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING,
WITH BEST AREAL COVERAGE EXPECTED FROM CENTRAL VA OVER TO THE NRN
NECK AND ERN SHORE, WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED. OTW, WILL
CARRY SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE SE FARTHER AWAY FROM BETTER FORCING
AND LIFT. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN 90-95...BUT WL FEEL A BIT HOTTER WITH
INCREASED HUMIDITY. SLIGHTLY COOLER U80S TO AROUND 90 AGAIN AT
COASTAL/BEACH AREAS. ANY CONVECTION DISSIPATES AFTER SS. MILD TUE
NIGHT W/LOWS U60S-M70S.

BOUNDARY WASHES OUT / DISSIPATES OVER THE REGION WED/THU, AS FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL. HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC
POP FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION, AS
ADDITIONAL WEAK PERTURBATIONS PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. CONTINUED
VERY WARM AND STILL MODERATELY HUMID WITH HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE ELEVATED EACH DAY THRU THE PERIOD AND SHOULD
TOP OUT ~ 100 DEG F TUE/WED WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS
INTERIOR SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY WITH SOUTH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY BY THIS AFTN. THERE REMAINS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS AT KECG... OTHERWISE
THE REMAINING TAF SITES WILL BE DRY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE WITH
THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS.
BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY... BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT
ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. PREDOMINANTLY S-SW WINDS
WILL AVERAGE AOB 15 KT...BECOMING MORE BREEZY BY THIS AFTN.
LOW-END SCA WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER THE BAY/SOUND AND COASTAL
WATERS NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER...PERSISTING INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 25 KT OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL WATERS.
1-2 FT WAVES BUILD TO 3-4 FT THIS EVENING...AND 2-3 FT SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT. WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL BELOW 15 KT
AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER SEAS WILL BE SLOW
TO DROP BELOW 5 FT UNTIL EARLY AFTN.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE
WITH THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS
BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS. BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY...
BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT (AOB 10 KT) ON WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...EXPECT S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS
2-3 FT (UP TO 4 FT AT TIMES NEAR 20 NM).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ656.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031024
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
624 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST RATIONALE IN EITHER THE NEAR/SHORT
TERM PERIOD. H5 UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER JAMES BAY. LEAD
UPPER SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW EMBEDDED IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE
NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS, THE SYSTEM WILL DRAG
TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE, SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
HOWEVER...PRE-FRONTAL/SFC LEE TROUGHING WILL SHARPEN TO THE WEST
IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING FRONT. ALSO, SFC TROUGH/DIFFUSE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN TO OUR SE THIS PAST WEEKEND WILL BE SHUNTED
BACK TOWARD THE AREA BY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING NE ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS FROM FL/GA COAST.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING MUCH OF THE AREA DRY
TODAY, A RESULT OF LLVL DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND WARM, DRY AIR ALOFT
WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS DEPICTED OUT AHEAD OF THE RETURNING BOUNDARY
TO THE SOUTH TO WARRANT KEEPING POPS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. HAVE THEREFORE BUMPED POP UPWARD INTO LOW END CHANCE
RANGE FOR SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION LATE AFTN/EVENING ACROSS FAR SE
VA/NE NC.

LLVL THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATE MODEST BUMP UPWARD, BUT DID TEMPER
THAT A BIT WITH COOLER MET GUIDANCE ACROSS THE SE IN EXPECTATION
OF INCREASING CLDS/POSSIBLE TSRAS. HIGHS L-M90S...EXCEPT M-U80S
AT THE BEACHES.

M CLR TO PT CLOUDY TONIGHT. WEAK SHEAR AND BEST FORCING/MOISTURE
REMAINING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANY LINGERING
CONVECTION TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SS. LOWS U60S-L70S EXCEPT
M70S BEACH AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ERN TROUGH SHARPENS A BIT MORE TO ALLOW THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO DROP ACROSS THE FA FROM THE N. BEST DYNAMICS/FORCING
LOOK TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER, LLVL CONVERGENCE,
MOISTURE/RH POOLING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY ALL SEEM TO POINT TOWARD SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING,
WITH BEST AREAL COVERAGE EXPECTED FROM CENTRAL VA OVER TO THE NRN
NECK AND ERN SHORE, WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED. OTW, WILL
CARRY SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE SE FARTHER AWAY FROM BETTER FORCING
AND LIFT. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN 90-95...BUT WL FEEL A BIT HOTTER WITH
INCREASED HUMIDITY. SLIGHTLY COOLER U80S TO AROUND 90 AGAIN AT
COASTAL/BEACH AREAS. ANY CONVECTION DISSIPATES AFTER SS. MILD TUE
NIGHT W/LOWS U60S-M70S.

BOUNDARY WASHES OUT / DISSIPATES OVER THE REGION WED/THU, AS FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL. HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC
POP FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION, AS
ADDITIONAL WEAK PERTURBATIONS PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. CONTINUED
VERY WARM AND STILL MODERATELY HUMID WITH HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE ELEVATED EACH DAY THRU THE PERIOD AND SHOULD
TOP OUT ~ 100 DEG F TUE/WED WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS
INTERIOR SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY WITH SOUTH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY BY THIS AFTN. THERE REMAINS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS AT KECG... OTHERWISE
THE REMAINING TAF SITES WILL BE DRY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE WITH
THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS.
BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY... BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT
ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. PREDOMINANTLY S-SW WINDS
WILL AVERAGE AOB 15 KT...BECOMING MORE BREEZY BY THIS AFTN.
LOW-END SCA WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER THE BAY/SOUND AND COASTAL
WATERS NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER...PERSISTING INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 25 KT OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL WATERS.
1-2 FT WAVES BUILD TO 3-4 FT THIS EVENING...AND 2-3 FT SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT. WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL BELOW 15 KT
AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER SEAS WILL BE SLOW
TO DROP BELOW 5 FT UNTIL EARLY AFTN.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE
WITH THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS
BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS. BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY...
BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT (AOB 10 KT) ON WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...EXPECT S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS
2-3 FT (UP TO 4 FT AT TIMES NEAR 20 NM).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ656.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD




000
FXUS61 KRNK 030904
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
504 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY PROVIDING MAINLY
DRY WEATHER. A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION BY
TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT MIDWEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG
THE FRONT BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT MONDAY...

FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR COURTESY OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION. THIS DOME OF FAIR WEATHER IS
GRADUALLY FADING PER DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
OOZING NORTH...AND A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO DRAW HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE REGION...BUT LACK OF
FORCING WILL KEEP POPS AT A MINIMUM. MAIN THREAT FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ALONG THE APPROACHING
FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA...WV
COUNTIES...TOWARD SUNSET. MODELS INSIST THAT ACTIVITY WILL DRY UP
AS IT TRIES TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THE LEE TROF OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CWA...PIEDMONT COUNTIES...THIS AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE
LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE A MOSTLY SUNNY...VERY
WARM AND MAINLY DRY AFTERNOON. 85H TEMPS OF +20 DEG C SHOULD
PROMOTE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...AND INTO THE LOWER 90S ALONG AND EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FEET SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY IN THE
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT MONDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LESS PRONOUNCED OVER THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH MID WEEK...ALLOWING WINDS ALOFT TO BECOME
GENERALLY WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC...THEREBY OPENING OUR
AREA TO THE APPROACH OF DISTURBANCES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
MIDWEST.

ONE DISTURBANCE PASSING NEAR THE OHIO RIVER EARLY TUESDAY WILL HELP
PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY. WITH
ONLY MODEST MOISTURE RETURNING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...BELIEVE THAT
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING WITH AFTERNOON HEATING
WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOUND SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 460. THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR OUR AREA TO THE SOUTH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH POST FRONTAL NORTHWESTERLY WINDFLOW HELPING TO
DIMINISH ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MAKE FOR DRY
CONDITIONS MOST AREAS FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH PERHAPS A FEW PULSE
VARIETY SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AGAIN...BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FOUND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
460...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHLANDS OF NORTH CAROLINA WHERE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE RIDGETOPS MAY TRIGGER BETTER SLIGHTLY COVERAGE
OF CONVECTION IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT WAVES OF ENERGY RIDING AHEAD OF
THE LOW WILL PASS ACROSS OUR AREA...AND SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO LIFT BACK TO THE
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

THE LOW WILL PUSH UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY. EXPECT TO
START THE DAY WITH ONLY SPOTTY RAIN ACTIVITY...HOWEVER SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE DURING THE EVENING AS THE LOW
APPROACHES THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. THE LOW WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF
OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE
MOUNTAINS BEFORE DAWN. OF NOTE IS THE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
MODELS IN THE INTENSITY OF THE LOW AS IT PASSES OUR AREA. THE GFS
MODEL IS FAR WEAKER THAN THE ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS IN ITS DEPICTION
OF THE LOW...WITH THE STRONGER SOLUTIONS INDICATING A THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE NIGHT. RIGHT NOW...BELIEVE THE ECMWF/
CANADIAN SOLUTIONS ARE A LITTLE TOO STRONG GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR
AND LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...SO FOR NOW WILL STICK CLOSER TO
THE WEAKER GFS SOLUTION AND SIMPLY CONTINUE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION
OF THIS SYSTEM IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT SUNDAY...

TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE PERIOD
AS THE REGION GETS CAUGHT UNDER THE SURFACE-850 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE
AND WITHIN A NEARBY FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHED BACK INTO THE MIDWEST.
STRONGER ENERGY ALOFT DROPPING OVER THE CENTRAL STATES UPPER RIDGE
WILL THEN START TO DIG OUT ANOTHER RATHER STRONG 5H TROUGH TO THE NW
FRIDAY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE HELPING TO DRIVE THE NEXT
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY FRIDAY EVENING.

SIMILAR TO THE LAST WEEK OR TWO...APPEARS ANOTHER SURGE OF MUCH
DRIER/COOLER AIR LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT NEXT WEEKEND AS YET ANOTHER
5H TROUGH CARVES ITSELF OUT ACROSS THE EAST. GUIDANCE EVEN COOLER
ALOFT WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN PROGGED 850 MB TEMPS AS COOL AS +12C
MOUNTAINS BUT MAY BE TOO COOL THAT FAR OUT. HOWEVER STILL ENOUGH TO
DROP HIGHS BACK IN THE 70S MOUNTAINS AND ONLY LOW/MID 80S OUT EAST
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS/WEDGES IN FROM THE NORTH. RESIDUAL POPS A
BIT TRICKY TOWARD DAYS 6/7 BUT SHOULD BE DRIER WITH PERHAPS SOME
LEFTOVER UPSLOPE SHOWERS WEST SATURDAY AND ONLY ISOLATED FAR
SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT MONDAY...

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD AS
A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BE INCREASING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. MAIN CONCERN FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FROM NORTHERN
KY UP THROUGH EASTERN OHIO ALONG THE OHIO RIVER INTO PENNSYLVANIA.
STORMS THAT FORM ALONG THIS FRONT TODAY MAY APPROACH KBLF/KLWB
LATE IN THE DAY...BUT CONFIDENCE LOW AS TO WHETHER THIS ACTIVITY
WILL BE ABLE TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS...THUS OMITTING FROM THE
KBLF/KLWB TAFS ATTM. OVER AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...CAN`T RULE
OUT A LATE AFTERNOON AIRMASS THUNDERSHOWER...BUT COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED.

FOG CONCERNS REMAIN MINIMAL AS AIR MASS IS VERY DRY. HOWEVER...AS
IS OFTEN THE CASE FOR LWB IN THE GREENBRIER VALLEY...RADIATIONAL
COOLING MAY PERMIT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR/LIFR EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...CONFIDENCE IN ANY
FOG IS LOW...AND WILL KEEP IT OUT OF THE TAFS ATTM.

WINDS TODAY BECOMING SOUTHWEST MONDAY MID-MORNING AND INCREASING
INTO THE 6-9KT RANGE MOST SITES BY LATE MORNING. SOME LOW END
GUSTS POSSIBLE AT BLF JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF
VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC FOR MID WEEK WHICH COULD
BRING A FEW SHRA/TSRA BY TUESDAY...WITH A BIT MORE COVERAGE LATER
WEDNESDAY AND A BETTER CHANCE THURSDAY. THE THREAT OF SUB-VFR
REMAINS LOW UNTIL THURSDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL FOG POTENTIAL
AT KLWB/KBCB EACH MORNING BETWEEN 09-13Z.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...PM



000
FXUS61 KRNK 030904
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
504 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY PROVIDING MAINLY
DRY WEATHER. A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION BY
TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT MIDWEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG
THE FRONT BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT MONDAY...

FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR COURTESY OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION. THIS DOME OF FAIR WEATHER IS
GRADUALLY FADING PER DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
OOZING NORTH...AND A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO DRAW HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE REGION...BUT LACK OF
FORCING WILL KEEP POPS AT A MINIMUM. MAIN THREAT FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ALONG THE APPROACHING
FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA...WV
COUNTIES...TOWARD SUNSET. MODELS INSIST THAT ACTIVITY WILL DRY UP
AS IT TRIES TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THE LEE TROF OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CWA...PIEDMONT COUNTIES...THIS AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE
LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE A MOSTLY SUNNY...VERY
WARM AND MAINLY DRY AFTERNOON. 85H TEMPS OF +20 DEG C SHOULD
PROMOTE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...AND INTO THE LOWER 90S ALONG AND EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FEET SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY IN THE
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT MONDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LESS PRONOUNCED OVER THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH MID WEEK...ALLOWING WINDS ALOFT TO BECOME
GENERALLY WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC...THEREBY OPENING OUR
AREA TO THE APPROACH OF DISTURBANCES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
MIDWEST.

ONE DISTURBANCE PASSING NEAR THE OHIO RIVER EARLY TUESDAY WILL HELP
PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY. WITH
ONLY MODEST MOISTURE RETURNING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...BELIEVE THAT
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING WITH AFTERNOON HEATING
WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOUND SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 460. THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR OUR AREA TO THE SOUTH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH POST FRONTAL NORTHWESTERLY WINDFLOW HELPING TO
DIMINISH ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MAKE FOR DRY
CONDITIONS MOST AREAS FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH PERHAPS A FEW PULSE
VARIETY SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AGAIN...BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FOUND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
460...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHLANDS OF NORTH CAROLINA WHERE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE RIDGETOPS MAY TRIGGER BETTER SLIGHTLY COVERAGE
OF CONVECTION IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT WAVES OF ENERGY RIDING AHEAD OF
THE LOW WILL PASS ACROSS OUR AREA...AND SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO LIFT BACK TO THE
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

THE LOW WILL PUSH UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY. EXPECT TO
START THE DAY WITH ONLY SPOTTY RAIN ACTIVITY...HOWEVER SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE DURING THE EVENING AS THE LOW
APPROACHES THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. THE LOW WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF
OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE
MOUNTAINS BEFORE DAWN. OF NOTE IS THE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
MODELS IN THE INTENSITY OF THE LOW AS IT PASSES OUR AREA. THE GFS
MODEL IS FAR WEAKER THAN THE ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS IN ITS DEPICTION
OF THE LOW...WITH THE STRONGER SOLUTIONS INDICATING A THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE NIGHT. RIGHT NOW...BELIEVE THE ECMWF/
CANADIAN SOLUTIONS ARE A LITTLE TOO STRONG GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR
AND LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...SO FOR NOW WILL STICK CLOSER TO
THE WEAKER GFS SOLUTION AND SIMPLY CONTINUE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION
OF THIS SYSTEM IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT SUNDAY...

TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE PERIOD
AS THE REGION GETS CAUGHT UNDER THE SURFACE-850 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE
AND WITHIN A NEARBY FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHED BACK INTO THE MIDWEST.
STRONGER ENERGY ALOFT DROPPING OVER THE CENTRAL STATES UPPER RIDGE
WILL THEN START TO DIG OUT ANOTHER RATHER STRONG 5H TROUGH TO THE NW
FRIDAY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE HELPING TO DRIVE THE NEXT
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY FRIDAY EVENING.

SIMILAR TO THE LAST WEEK OR TWO...APPEARS ANOTHER SURGE OF MUCH
DRIER/COOLER AIR LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT NEXT WEEKEND AS YET ANOTHER
5H TROUGH CARVES ITSELF OUT ACROSS THE EAST. GUIDANCE EVEN COOLER
ALOFT WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN PROGGED 850 MB TEMPS AS COOL AS +12C
MOUNTAINS BUT MAY BE TOO COOL THAT FAR OUT. HOWEVER STILL ENOUGH TO
DROP HIGHS BACK IN THE 70S MOUNTAINS AND ONLY LOW/MID 80S OUT EAST
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS/WEDGES IN FROM THE NORTH. RESIDUAL POPS A
BIT TRICKY TOWARD DAYS 6/7 BUT SHOULD BE DRIER WITH PERHAPS SOME
LEFTOVER UPSLOPE SHOWERS WEST SATURDAY AND ONLY ISOLATED FAR
SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT MONDAY...

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD AS
A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BE INCREASING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. MAIN CONCERN FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FROM NORTHERN
KY UP THROUGH EASTERN OHIO ALONG THE OHIO RIVER INTO PENNSYLVANIA.
STORMS THAT FORM ALONG THIS FRONT TODAY MAY APPROACH KBLF/KLWB
LATE IN THE DAY...BUT CONFIDENCE LOW AS TO WHETHER THIS ACTIVITY
WILL BE ABLE TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS...THUS OMITTING FROM THE
KBLF/KLWB TAFS ATTM. OVER AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...CAN`T RULE
OUT A LATE AFTERNOON AIRMASS THUNDERSHOWER...BUT COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED.

FOG CONCERNS REMAIN MINIMAL AS AIR MASS IS VERY DRY. HOWEVER...AS
IS OFTEN THE CASE FOR LWB IN THE GREENBRIER VALLEY...RADIATIONAL
COOLING MAY PERMIT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR/LIFR EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...CONFIDENCE IN ANY
FOG IS LOW...AND WILL KEEP IT OUT OF THE TAFS ATTM.

WINDS TODAY BECOMING SOUTHWEST MONDAY MID-MORNING AND INCREASING
INTO THE 6-9KT RANGE MOST SITES BY LATE MORNING. SOME LOW END
GUSTS POSSIBLE AT BLF JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF
VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC FOR MID WEEK WHICH COULD
BRING A FEW SHRA/TSRA BY TUESDAY...WITH A BIT MORE COVERAGE LATER
WEDNESDAY AND A BETTER CHANCE THURSDAY. THE THREAT OF SUB-VFR
REMAINS LOW UNTIL THURSDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL FOG POTENTIAL
AT KLWB/KBCB EACH MORNING BETWEEN 09-13Z.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...PM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 030903
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
503 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY PROVIDING MAINLY
DRY WEATHER. A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION BY
TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT MIDWEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG
THE FRONT BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT SUNDAY...

FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR COURTESY OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION. THIS DOME OF FAIR WEATHER IS
GRADUALLY FADING PER DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
OOZING NORTH...AND A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO DRAW HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE REGION...BUT LACK OF
FORCING WILL KEEP POPS AT A MINIMUM. MAIN THREAT FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ALONG THE APPROACHING
FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA...WV
COUNTIES...TOWARD SUNSET. MODELS INSIST THAT ACTIVITY WILL DRY UP
AS IT TRIES TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THE LEE TROF OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CWA...PIEDMONT COUNTIES...THIS AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE
LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE A MOSTLY SUNNY...VERY
WARM AND MAINLY DRY AFTERNOON. 85H TEMPS OF +20 DEG C SHOULD
PROMOTE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...AND INTO THE LOWER 90S ALONG AND EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FEET SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY IN THE
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT MONDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LESS PRONOUNCED OVER THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH MID WEEK...ALLOWING WINDS ALOFT TO BECOME
GENERALLY WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC...THEREBY OPENING OUR
AREA TO THE APPROACH OF DISTURBANCES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
MIDWEST.

ONE DISTURBANCE PASSING NEAR THE OHIO RIVER EARLY TUESDAY WILL HELP
PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY. WITH
ONLY MODEST MOISTURE RETURNING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...BELIEVE THAT
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING WITH AFTERNOON HEATING
WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOUND SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 460. THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR OUR AREA TO THE SOUTH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH POST FRONTAL NORTHWESTERLY WINDFLOW HELPING TO
DIMINISH ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MAKE FOR DRY
CONDITIONS MOST AREAS FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH PERHAPS A FEW PULSE
VARIETY SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AGAIN...BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FOUND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
460...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHLANDS OF NORTH CAROLINA WHERE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE RIDGETOPS MAY TRIGGER BETTER SLIGHTLY COVERAGE
OF CONVECTION IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT WAVES OF ENERGY RIDING AHEAD OF
THE LOW WILL PASS ACROSS OUR AREA...AND SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO LIFT BACK TO THE
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

THE LOW WILL PUSH UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY. EXPECT TO
START THE DAY WITH ONLY SPOTTY RAIN ACTIVITY...HOWEVER SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE DURING THE EVENING AS THE LOW
APPROACHES THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. THE LOW WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF
OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE
MOUNTAINS BEFORE DAWN. OF NOTE IS THE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
MODELS IN THE INTENSITY OF THE LOW AS IT PASSES OUR AREA. THE GFS
MODEL IS FAR WEAKER THAN THE ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS IN ITS DEPICTION
OF THE LOW...WITH THE STRONGER SOLUTIONS INDICATING A THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE NIGHT. RIGHT NOW...BELIEVE THE ECMWF/
CANADIAN SOLUTIONS ARE A LITTLE TOO STRONG GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR
AND LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...SO FOR NOW WILL STICK CLOSER TO
THE WEAKER GFS SOLUTION AND SIMPLY CONTINUE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION
OF THIS SYSTEM IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT SUNDAY...

TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE PERIOD
AS THE REGION GETS CAUGHT UNDER THE SURFACE-850 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE
AND WITHIN A NEARBY FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHED BACK INTO THE MIDWEST.
STRONGER ENERGY ALOFT DROPPING OVER THE CENTRAL STATES UPPER RIDGE
WILL THEN START TO DIG OUT ANOTHER RATHER STRONG 5H TROUGH TO THE NW
FRIDAY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE HELPING TO DRIVE THE NEXT
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY FRIDAY EVENING.

SIMILAR TO THE LAST WEEK OR TWO...APPEARS ANOTHER SURGE OF MUCH
DRIER/COOLER AIR LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT NEXT WEEKEND AS YET ANOTHER
5H TROUGH CARVES ITSELF OUT ACROSS THE EAST. GUIDANCE EVEN COOLER
ALOFT WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN PROGGED 850 MB TEMPS AS COOL AS +12C
MOUNTAINS BUT MAY BE TOO COOL THAT FAR OUT. HOWEVER STILL ENOUGH TO
DROP HIGHS BACK IN THE 70S MOUNTAINS AND ONLY LOW/MID 80S OUT EAST
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS/WEDGES IN FROM THE NORTH. RESIDUAL POPS A
BIT TRICKY TOWARD DAYS 6/7 BUT SHOULD BE DRIER WITH PERHAPS SOME
LEFTOVER UPSLOPE SHOWERS WEST SATURDAY AND ONLY ISOLATED FAR
SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT MONDAY...

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD AS
A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BE INCREASING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. MAIN CONCERN FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FROM NORTHERN
KY UP THROUGH EASTERN OHIO ALONG THE OHIO RIVER INTO PENNSYLVANIA.
STORMS THAT FORM ALONG THIS FRONT TODAY MAY APPROACH KBLF/KLWB
LATE IN THE DAY...BUT CONFIDENCE LOW AS TO WHETHER THIS ACTIVITY
WILL BE ABLE TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS...THUS OMITTING FROM THE
KBLF/KLWB TAFS ATTM. OVER AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...CAN`T RULE
OUT A LATE AFTERNOON AIRMASS THUNDERSHOWER...BUT COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED.

FOG CONCERNS REMAIN MINIMAL AS AIR MASS IS VERY DRY. HOWEVER...AS
IS OFTEN THE CASE FOR LWB IN THE GREENBRIER VALLEY...RADIATIONAL
COOLING MAY PERMIT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR/LIFR EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...CONFIDENCE IN ANY
FOG IS LOW...AND WILL KEEP IT OUT OF THE TAFS ATTM.

WINDS TODAY BECOMING SOUTHWEST MONDAY MID-MORNING AND INCREASING
INTO THE 6-9KT RANGE MOST SITES BY LATE MORNING. SOME LOW END
GUSTS POSSIBLE AT BLF JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF
VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC FOR MID WEEK WHICH COULD
BRING A FEW SHRA/TSRA BY TUESDAY...WITH A BIT MORE COVERAGE LATER
WEDNESDAY AND A BETTER CHANCE THURSDAY. THE THREAT OF SUB-VFR
REMAINS LOW UNTIL THURSDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL FOG POTENTIAL
AT KLWB/KBCB EACH MORNING BETWEEN 09-13Z.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...PM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 030903
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
503 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY PROVIDING MAINLY
DRY WEATHER. A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION BY
TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT MIDWEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG
THE FRONT BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT SUNDAY...

FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR COURTESY OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION. THIS DOME OF FAIR WEATHER IS
GRADUALLY FADING PER DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
OOZING NORTH...AND A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO DRAW HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE REGION...BUT LACK OF
FORCING WILL KEEP POPS AT A MINIMUM. MAIN THREAT FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ALONG THE APPROACHING
FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA...WV
COUNTIES...TOWARD SUNSET. MODELS INSIST THAT ACTIVITY WILL DRY UP
AS IT TRIES TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THE LEE TROF OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CWA...PIEDMONT COUNTIES...THIS AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE
LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE A MOSTLY SUNNY...VERY
WARM AND MAINLY DRY AFTERNOON. 85H TEMPS OF +20 DEG C SHOULD
PROMOTE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...AND INTO THE LOWER 90S ALONG AND EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FEET SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY IN THE
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT MONDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LESS PRONOUNCED OVER THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH MID WEEK...ALLOWING WINDS ALOFT TO BECOME
GENERALLY WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC...THEREBY OPENING OUR
AREA TO THE APPROACH OF DISTURBANCES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
MIDWEST.

ONE DISTURBANCE PASSING NEAR THE OHIO RIVER EARLY TUESDAY WILL HELP
PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY. WITH
ONLY MODEST MOISTURE RETURNING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...BELIEVE THAT
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING WITH AFTERNOON HEATING
WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOUND SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 460. THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR OUR AREA TO THE SOUTH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH POST FRONTAL NORTHWESTERLY WINDFLOW HELPING TO
DIMINISH ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MAKE FOR DRY
CONDITIONS MOST AREAS FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH PERHAPS A FEW PULSE
VARIETY SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AGAIN...BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FOUND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
460...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHLANDS OF NORTH CAROLINA WHERE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE RIDGETOPS MAY TRIGGER BETTER SLIGHTLY COVERAGE
OF CONVECTION IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT WAVES OF ENERGY RIDING AHEAD OF
THE LOW WILL PASS ACROSS OUR AREA...AND SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO LIFT BACK TO THE
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

THE LOW WILL PUSH UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY. EXPECT TO
START THE DAY WITH ONLY SPOTTY RAIN ACTIVITY...HOWEVER SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE DURING THE EVENING AS THE LOW
APPROACHES THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. THE LOW WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF
OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE
MOUNTAINS BEFORE DAWN. OF NOTE IS THE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
MODELS IN THE INTENSITY OF THE LOW AS IT PASSES OUR AREA. THE GFS
MODEL IS FAR WEAKER THAN THE ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS IN ITS DEPICTION
OF THE LOW...WITH THE STRONGER SOLUTIONS INDICATING A THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE NIGHT. RIGHT NOW...BELIEVE THE ECMWF/
CANADIAN SOLUTIONS ARE A LITTLE TOO STRONG GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR
AND LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...SO FOR NOW WILL STICK CLOSER TO
THE WEAKER GFS SOLUTION AND SIMPLY CONTINUE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION
OF THIS SYSTEM IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT SUNDAY...

TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE PERIOD
AS THE REGION GETS CAUGHT UNDER THE SURFACE-850 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE
AND WITHIN A NEARBY FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHED BACK INTO THE MIDWEST.
STRONGER ENERGY ALOFT DROPPING OVER THE CENTRAL STATES UPPER RIDGE
WILL THEN START TO DIG OUT ANOTHER RATHER STRONG 5H TROUGH TO THE NW
FRIDAY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE HELPING TO DRIVE THE NEXT
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY FRIDAY EVENING.

SIMILAR TO THE LAST WEEK OR TWO...APPEARS ANOTHER SURGE OF MUCH
DRIER/COOLER AIR LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT NEXT WEEKEND AS YET ANOTHER
5H TROUGH CARVES ITSELF OUT ACROSS THE EAST. GUIDANCE EVEN COOLER
ALOFT WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN PROGGED 850 MB TEMPS AS COOL AS +12C
MOUNTAINS BUT MAY BE TOO COOL THAT FAR OUT. HOWEVER STILL ENOUGH TO
DROP HIGHS BACK IN THE 70S MOUNTAINS AND ONLY LOW/MID 80S OUT EAST
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS/WEDGES IN FROM THE NORTH. RESIDUAL POPS A
BIT TRICKY TOWARD DAYS 6/7 BUT SHOULD BE DRIER WITH PERHAPS SOME
LEFTOVER UPSLOPE SHOWERS WEST SATURDAY AND ONLY ISOLATED FAR
SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT MONDAY...

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD AS
A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BE INCREASING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. MAIN CONCERN FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FROM NORTHERN
KY UP THROUGH EASTERN OHIO ALONG THE OHIO RIVER INTO PENNSYLVANIA.
STORMS THAT FORM ALONG THIS FRONT TODAY MAY APPROACH KBLF/KLWB
LATE IN THE DAY...BUT CONFIDENCE LOW AS TO WHETHER THIS ACTIVITY
WILL BE ABLE TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS...THUS OMITTING FROM THE
KBLF/KLWB TAFS ATTM. OVER AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...CAN`T RULE
OUT A LATE AFTERNOON AIRMASS THUNDERSHOWER...BUT COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED.

FOG CONCERNS REMAIN MINIMAL AS AIR MASS IS VERY DRY. HOWEVER...AS
IS OFTEN THE CASE FOR LWB IN THE GREENBRIER VALLEY...RADIATIONAL
COOLING MAY PERMIT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR/LIFR EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...CONFIDENCE IN ANY
FOG IS LOW...AND WILL KEEP IT OUT OF THE TAFS ATTM.

WINDS TODAY BECOMING SOUTHWEST MONDAY MID-MORNING AND INCREASING
INTO THE 6-9KT RANGE MOST SITES BY LATE MORNING. SOME LOW END
GUSTS POSSIBLE AT BLF JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF
VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC FOR MID WEEK WHICH COULD
BRING A FEW SHRA/TSRA BY TUESDAY...WITH A BIT MORE COVERAGE LATER
WEDNESDAY AND A BETTER CHANCE THURSDAY. THE THREAT OF SUB-VFR
REMAINS LOW UNTIL THURSDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL FOG POTENTIAL
AT KLWB/KBCB EACH MORNING BETWEEN 09-13Z.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...PM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 030903
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
503 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY PROVIDING MAINLY
DRY WEATHER. A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION BY
TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT MIDWEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG
THE FRONT BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT SUNDAY...

FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR COURTESY OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION. THIS DOME OF FAIR WEATHER IS
GRADUALLY FADING PER DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
OOZING NORTH...AND A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO DRAW HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE REGION...BUT LACK OF
FORCING WILL KEEP POPS AT A MINIMUM. MAIN THREAT FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ALONG THE APPROACHING
FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA...WV
COUNTIES...TOWARD SUNSET. MODELS INSIST THAT ACTIVITY WILL DRY UP
AS IT TRIES TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THE LEE TROF OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CWA...PIEDMONT COUNTIES...THIS AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE
LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE A MOSTLY SUNNY...VERY
WARM AND MAINLY DRY AFTERNOON. 85H TEMPS OF +20 DEG C SHOULD
PROMOTE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...AND INTO THE LOWER 90S ALONG AND EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FEET SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY IN THE
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT MONDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LESS PRONOUNCED OVER THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH MID WEEK...ALLOWING WINDS ALOFT TO BECOME
GENERALLY WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC...THEREBY OPENING OUR
AREA TO THE APPROACH OF DISTURBANCES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
MIDWEST.

ONE DISTURBANCE PASSING NEAR THE OHIO RIVER EARLY TUESDAY WILL HELP
PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY. WITH
ONLY MODEST MOISTURE RETURNING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...BELIEVE THAT
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING WITH AFTERNOON HEATING
WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOUND SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 460. THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR OUR AREA TO THE SOUTH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH POST FRONTAL NORTHWESTERLY WINDFLOW HELPING TO
DIMINISH ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MAKE FOR DRY
CONDITIONS MOST AREAS FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH PERHAPS A FEW PULSE
VARIETY SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AGAIN...BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FOUND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
460...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHLANDS OF NORTH CAROLINA WHERE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE RIDGETOPS MAY TRIGGER BETTER SLIGHTLY COVERAGE
OF CONVECTION IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT WAVES OF ENERGY RIDING AHEAD OF
THE LOW WILL PASS ACROSS OUR AREA...AND SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO LIFT BACK TO THE
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

THE LOW WILL PUSH UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY. EXPECT TO
START THE DAY WITH ONLY SPOTTY RAIN ACTIVITY...HOWEVER SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE DURING THE EVENING AS THE LOW
APPROACHES THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. THE LOW WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF
OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE
MOUNTAINS BEFORE DAWN. OF NOTE IS THE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
MODELS IN THE INTENSITY OF THE LOW AS IT PASSES OUR AREA. THE GFS
MODEL IS FAR WEAKER THAN THE ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS IN ITS DEPICTION
OF THE LOW...WITH THE STRONGER SOLUTIONS INDICATING A THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE NIGHT. RIGHT NOW...BELIEVE THE ECMWF/
CANADIAN SOLUTIONS ARE A LITTLE TOO STRONG GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR
AND LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...SO FOR NOW WILL STICK CLOSER TO
THE WEAKER GFS SOLUTION AND SIMPLY CONTINUE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION
OF THIS SYSTEM IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT SUNDAY...

TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE PERIOD
AS THE REGION GETS CAUGHT UNDER THE SURFACE-850 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE
AND WITHIN A NEARBY FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHED BACK INTO THE MIDWEST.
STRONGER ENERGY ALOFT DROPPING OVER THE CENTRAL STATES UPPER RIDGE
WILL THEN START TO DIG OUT ANOTHER RATHER STRONG 5H TROUGH TO THE NW
FRIDAY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE HELPING TO DRIVE THE NEXT
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY FRIDAY EVENING.

SIMILAR TO THE LAST WEEK OR TWO...APPEARS ANOTHER SURGE OF MUCH
DRIER/COOLER AIR LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT NEXT WEEKEND AS YET ANOTHER
5H TROUGH CARVES ITSELF OUT ACROSS THE EAST. GUIDANCE EVEN COOLER
ALOFT WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN PROGGED 850 MB TEMPS AS COOL AS +12C
MOUNTAINS BUT MAY BE TOO COOL THAT FAR OUT. HOWEVER STILL ENOUGH TO
DROP HIGHS BACK IN THE 70S MOUNTAINS AND ONLY LOW/MID 80S OUT EAST
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS/WEDGES IN FROM THE NORTH. RESIDUAL POPS A
BIT TRICKY TOWARD DAYS 6/7 BUT SHOULD BE DRIER WITH PERHAPS SOME
LEFTOVER UPSLOPE SHOWERS WEST SATURDAY AND ONLY ISOLATED FAR
SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT MONDAY...

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD AS
A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BE INCREASING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. MAIN CONCERN FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FROM NORTHERN
KY UP THROUGH EASTERN OHIO ALONG THE OHIO RIVER INTO PENNSYLVANIA.
STORMS THAT FORM ALONG THIS FRONT TODAY MAY APPROACH KBLF/KLWB
LATE IN THE DAY...BUT CONFIDENCE LOW AS TO WHETHER THIS ACTIVITY
WILL BE ABLE TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS...THUS OMITTING FROM THE
KBLF/KLWB TAFS ATTM. OVER AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...CAN`T RULE
OUT A LATE AFTERNOON AIRMASS THUNDERSHOWER...BUT COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED.

FOG CONCERNS REMAIN MINIMAL AS AIR MASS IS VERY DRY. HOWEVER...AS
IS OFTEN THE CASE FOR LWB IN THE GREENBRIER VALLEY...RADIATIONAL
COOLING MAY PERMIT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR/LIFR EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...CONFIDENCE IN ANY
FOG IS LOW...AND WILL KEEP IT OUT OF THE TAFS ATTM.

WINDS TODAY BECOMING SOUTHWEST MONDAY MID-MORNING AND INCREASING
INTO THE 6-9KT RANGE MOST SITES BY LATE MORNING. SOME LOW END
GUSTS POSSIBLE AT BLF JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF
VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC FOR MID WEEK WHICH COULD
BRING A FEW SHRA/TSRA BY TUESDAY...WITH A BIT MORE COVERAGE LATER
WEDNESDAY AND A BETTER CHANCE THURSDAY. THE THREAT OF SUB-VFR
REMAINS LOW UNTIL THURSDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL FOG POTENTIAL
AT KLWB/KBCB EACH MORNING BETWEEN 09-13Z.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...PM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 030903
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
503 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY PROVIDING MAINLY
DRY WEATHER. A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION BY
TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT MIDWEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG
THE FRONT BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT SUNDAY...

FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR COURTESY OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION. THIS DOME OF FAIR WEATHER IS
GRADUALLY FADING PER DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
OOZING NORTH...AND A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO DRAW HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE REGION...BUT LACK OF
FORCING WILL KEEP POPS AT A MINIMUM. MAIN THREAT FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ALONG THE APPROACHING
FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA...WV
COUNTIES...TOWARD SUNSET. MODELS INSIST THAT ACTIVITY WILL DRY UP
AS IT TRIES TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THE LEE TROF OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CWA...PIEDMONT COUNTIES...THIS AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE
LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE A MOSTLY SUNNY...VERY
WARM AND MAINLY DRY AFTERNOON. 85H TEMPS OF +20 DEG C SHOULD
PROMOTE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...AND INTO THE LOWER 90S ALONG AND EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FEET SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY IN THE
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT MONDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LESS PRONOUNCED OVER THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH MID WEEK...ALLOWING WINDS ALOFT TO BECOME
GENERALLY WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC...THEREBY OPENING OUR
AREA TO THE APPROACH OF DISTURBANCES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
MIDWEST.

ONE DISTURBANCE PASSING NEAR THE OHIO RIVER EARLY TUESDAY WILL HELP
PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY. WITH
ONLY MODEST MOISTURE RETURNING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...BELIEVE THAT
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING WITH AFTERNOON HEATING
WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOUND SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 460. THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR OUR AREA TO THE SOUTH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH POST FRONTAL NORTHWESTERLY WINDFLOW HELPING TO
DIMINISH ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MAKE FOR DRY
CONDITIONS MOST AREAS FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH PERHAPS A FEW PULSE
VARIETY SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AGAIN...BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FOUND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
460...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHLANDS OF NORTH CAROLINA WHERE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE RIDGETOPS MAY TRIGGER BETTER SLIGHTLY COVERAGE
OF CONVECTION IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT WAVES OF ENERGY RIDING AHEAD OF
THE LOW WILL PASS ACROSS OUR AREA...AND SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO LIFT BACK TO THE
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

THE LOW WILL PUSH UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY. EXPECT TO
START THE DAY WITH ONLY SPOTTY RAIN ACTIVITY...HOWEVER SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE DURING THE EVENING AS THE LOW
APPROACHES THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. THE LOW WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF
OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE
MOUNTAINS BEFORE DAWN. OF NOTE IS THE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
MODELS IN THE INTENSITY OF THE LOW AS IT PASSES OUR AREA. THE GFS
MODEL IS FAR WEAKER THAN THE ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS IN ITS DEPICTION
OF THE LOW...WITH THE STRONGER SOLUTIONS INDICATING A THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE NIGHT. RIGHT NOW...BELIEVE THE ECMWF/
CANADIAN SOLUTIONS ARE A LITTLE TOO STRONG GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR
AND LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...SO FOR NOW WILL STICK CLOSER TO
THE WEAKER GFS SOLUTION AND SIMPLY CONTINUE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION
OF THIS SYSTEM IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT SUNDAY...

TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE PERIOD
AS THE REGION GETS CAUGHT UNDER THE SURFACE-850 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE
AND WITHIN A NEARBY FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHED BACK INTO THE MIDWEST.
STRONGER ENERGY ALOFT DROPPING OVER THE CENTRAL STATES UPPER RIDGE
WILL THEN START TO DIG OUT ANOTHER RATHER STRONG 5H TROUGH TO THE NW
FRIDAY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE HELPING TO DRIVE THE NEXT
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY FRIDAY EVENING.

SIMILAR TO THE LAST WEEK OR TWO...APPEARS ANOTHER SURGE OF MUCH
DRIER/COOLER AIR LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT NEXT WEEKEND AS YET ANOTHER
5H TROUGH CARVES ITSELF OUT ACROSS THE EAST. GUIDANCE EVEN COOLER
ALOFT WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN PROGGED 850 MB TEMPS AS COOL AS +12C
MOUNTAINS BUT MAY BE TOO COOL THAT FAR OUT. HOWEVER STILL ENOUGH TO
DROP HIGHS BACK IN THE 70S MOUNTAINS AND ONLY LOW/MID 80S OUT EAST
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS/WEDGES IN FROM THE NORTH. RESIDUAL POPS A
BIT TRICKY TOWARD DAYS 6/7 BUT SHOULD BE DRIER WITH PERHAPS SOME
LEFTOVER UPSLOPE SHOWERS WEST SATURDAY AND ONLY ISOLATED FAR
SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT MONDAY...

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD AS
A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BE INCREASING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. MAIN CONCERN FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FROM NORTHERN
KY UP THROUGH EASTERN OHIO ALONG THE OHIO RIVER INTO PENNSYLVANIA.
STORMS THAT FORM ALONG THIS FRONT TODAY MAY APPROACH KBLF/KLWB
LATE IN THE DAY...BUT CONFIDENCE LOW AS TO WHETHER THIS ACTIVITY
WILL BE ABLE TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS...THUS OMITTING FROM THE
KBLF/KLWB TAFS ATTM. OVER AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...CAN`T RULE
OUT A LATE AFTERNOON AIRMASS THUNDERSHOWER...BUT COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED.

FOG CONCERNS REMAIN MINIMAL AS AIR MASS IS VERY DRY. HOWEVER...AS
IS OFTEN THE CASE FOR LWB IN THE GREENBRIER VALLEY...RADIATIONAL
COOLING MAY PERMIT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR/LIFR EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...CONFIDENCE IN ANY
FOG IS LOW...AND WILL KEEP IT OUT OF THE TAFS ATTM.

WINDS TODAY BECOMING SOUTHWEST MONDAY MID-MORNING AND INCREASING
INTO THE 6-9KT RANGE MOST SITES BY LATE MORNING. SOME LOW END
GUSTS POSSIBLE AT BLF JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF
VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC FOR MID WEEK WHICH COULD
BRING A FEW SHRA/TSRA BY TUESDAY...WITH A BIT MORE COVERAGE LATER
WEDNESDAY AND A BETTER CHANCE THURSDAY. THE THREAT OF SUB-VFR
REMAINS LOW UNTIL THURSDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL FOG POTENTIAL
AT KLWB/KBCB EACH MORNING BETWEEN 09-13Z.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...PM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030742
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
342 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST RATIONALE IN EITHER THE NEAR/SHORT
TERM PERIOD. H5 UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER JAMES BAY. LEAD
UPPER SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW EMBEDDED IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE
NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS, THE SYSTEM WILL DRAG
TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE, SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
HOWEVER...PRE-FRONTAL/SFC LEE TROUGHING WILL SHARPEN TO THE WEST
IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING FRONT. ALSO, SFC TROUGH/DIFFUSE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN TO OUR SE THIS PAST WEEKEND WILL BE SHUNTED
BACK TOWARD THE AREA BY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING NE ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS FROM FL/GA COAST.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING MOST OF THE AREA DRY
TODAY, A RESULT OF LLVL DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND WARM, DRY AIR ALOFT
WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS DEPICTED OUT AHEAD OF THE RETURNING BOUNDARY
TO THE SOUTH TO KEEP POPS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AND HAVE
BUMPED UPWARD INTO LOW END CHANCE RANGE FOR SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION
ACROSS SE VA/NE NC.

LLVL THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATE MODEST BUMP UPWARD, BUT DID TEMPER
THAT A BIT WITH COOLER MET GUIDANCE ACROSS THE SE IN EXPECTATION
OF AFTN CONVECTION. HIGHS L-M90S...EXCEPT M-U80S AT THE BEACHES.

M CLR TO PT CLOUDY TONIGHT. WEAK SHEAR AND BEST FORCING/MOISTURE
REMAINING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANY LINGERING
CONVECTION TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SS. LOWS U60S-L70S EXCEPT
M70S BEACH AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ERN TROUGH SHARPENS A BIT MORE TO ALLOW THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO DROP ACROSS THE FA FROM THE N. BEST DYNAMICS/FORCING
LOOK TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER, LLVL CONVERGENCE,
MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY ALL SEEM TO POINT TOWARD SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING,
WITH BEST AREAL COVERAGE EXPECTED FROM CENTRAL VA OVER TO THE NRN
NECK AND ERN SHORE, WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED. OTW, WILL
CARRY SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE SE FARTHER AWAY FROM BETTER FORCING
AND LIFT. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS 90-95...WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER M-U80S COASTAL/BEACH AREAS. ANY CONVECTION
DISSIPATES AFTER SS. LOWS TUE NIGHT U60S-M70S.

BOUNDARY WASHES OUT / DISSIPATES OVER THE REGION WED, AS FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL. HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC POP
FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION, AS ADDITIONAL
WEAK PERTURBATIONS PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. CONTINUED VERY WARM
AND MODERATELY HUMID WITH HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES EACH DAY THRU THE PERIOD SHOULD TOP OUT ~ 100
DEG F WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS INTERIOR SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY WITH SOUTH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY BY THIS AFTN. THERE REMAINS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS AT KECG... OTHERWISE
THE REMAINING TAF SITES WILL BE DRY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE WITH
THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS.
BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY... BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT
ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. PREDOMINANTLY S-SW WINDS
WILL AVERAGE AOB 15 KT...BECOMING MORE BREEZY BY THIS AFTN.
LOW-END SCA WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER THE BAY/SOUND AND COASTAL
WATERS NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER...PERSISTING INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 25 KT OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL WATERS.
1-2 FT WAVES BUILD TO 3-4 FT THIS EVENING...AND 2-3 FT SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT. WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL BELOW 15 KT
AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER SEAS WILL BE SLOW
TO DROP BELOW 5 FT UNTIL EARLY AFTN.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE
WITH THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS
BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS. BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY...
BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT (AOB 10 KT) ON WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...EXPECT S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS
2-3 FT (UP TO 4 FT AT TIMES NEAR 20 NM).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD



000
FXUS61 KLWX 030713
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
313 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TODAY BEFORE STALLING OUT
OVERHEAD TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE A STALLED
FRONT...PASSING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH THEN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
THIS MORNING. POTENT UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN
OVER THE HUDSON BAY AND THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM EXTENDS SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC.

A SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. CURRENT FEELING IS THAT THIS
WILL WEAKEN AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...SO IT SHOULD NOT IMPACT
OUR AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH AND EAST
APPROACHING OUR AREA TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ALONG WITH A DEEP MIXING LAYER AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW
FOR UNSEASONABLY HOT CONDITIONS. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 90S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH TODAY...SO DEWPOINTS SHOULD MIX
DOWN INTO THE 50S AND 60S TODAY...KEEPING HEAT INDICES CLOSER TO
AIR TEMPERATURES.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING. A THETA-E
RIDGE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY MAY INCREASE INSTABILITY SOME...AND
THIS WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND INTO THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WHERE FORCING ON THE BOUNDARY WILL BE STRONGER.
THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT...AND A COUPLE
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME...BUT MOST OF THE TIME SHOULD BE DRY SINCE FORCING ON THE
FRONT WILL BE WEAK. THERE WILL BE LITTLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE FRONT...BUT IT WILL BE WARMER AND MORE HUMID NEAR AND
EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S
ACROSS MOST AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID AND
UPPER 70S NEAR DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON/BALTIMORE AND ALSO EAST OF
INTERSTATE 95.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED OVERHEAD...MOST LIKELY NEAR
INTESTATE 95 SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. AGAIN...LITTLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE BOUNDARY SO MOST AREAS WILL TURN OUT QUITE WARM WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MANY LOCATIONS. A COUPLE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.

THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THE BOUNDARY MAY SHIFT A BIT FARTHER SOUTH FOR WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IT SHOULD NOT MOVE
TOO FAR. A WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MORE WARM CONDITIONS
ACROSS ALL AREAS...BUT HUMIDITY MAY BE A BIT HIGHER ACROSS
SOUTHERN MARYLAND AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY.
THEREFORE...A COUPLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THESE AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...MOST AREAS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY SINCE THE BOUNDARY WILL BE WEAK.

A POTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE MIDWEST
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS SYSTEM BEING A BIT
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. THEREFORE...POPS HAVE BEEN
TWEAKED DOWN A BIT WITH THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATE. WILL CONTINUE
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT BUT IF THE
LATEST TRENDS CONTINUE IT ACTUALLY END UP DRY DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z MODEL SUITE HAS A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT POSITIONED OVER
SOUTHERN VA BY 12Z THURS. SOME INCONSISTENCIES ON SFC LOW PRESSURE
ORGANIZING OVER THE MIDWEST...WITH ALL BUT THE GFS DEVELOPING A
CLOSED LOW THAT THEN PROCEEDS TO DEEPEN AS IT RIDES THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. WILL GO WITH MORE OF THE CONSISTENT SOLUTION AND BRING
THE CLOSED SFC LOW INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THURS NIGHT. CONCERNING
PCPN...USING THIS SOLUTION WOULD HAVE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS
OVERSPREADING THE REGION DURING THE DAY THURS AND THRU THE NIGHT
INTO FRI...CORRESPONDING WITH THE PASSAGE WITH MID LVL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY. THE EXACT PATH OF THE LOW WILL DICTATE THE EXTEND OF ANY
TSTM ACTIVITY...WITH THE BETTER CHC IN THE LATEST RUNS INDICATING
CENTRAL VA AND SOUTH.

THE LOW PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA
THEN ATTEMPTING TO BUILD SOUTH. AM KEEPING SLIGHT CHC POPS IN DURING
THE WEEKEND TO ACCOUNT FOR MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES MVG THRU THE REGION
WHICH COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AND PSBL
EVEN TSTMS.

TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THRU THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY BR MAY REDUCE VSBYS BRIEFLY TO MVFR LEVELS
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS KMRB BUT CONVECTION
SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED/SCATTERED. A COUPLE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP NEAR THE EASTERN TERMINALS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THURS INTO FRI WITH DEVELOPING SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. PCPN WILL BE MORE OCNL IN NATURE DURING THE DAY
THURS...BCMG MORE WIDESPREAD THURS NIGHT AND FRI BEFORE TAPERING
OFF BY FRI NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS TODAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL STRENGTHEN DUE TO AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY
CHANNEL UP THE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MARYLAND
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER TONIGHT...AND FOR THE
MIDDLE PORTION OF THE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER TUESDAY
MORNING.

A BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE WATERS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
A COUPLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CONVECTION MAY BE SUPPRESSED FURTHER SOUTH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CURRENTLY EXPECTED THURS AND FRI.
DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW...COULD SEE SCA CONDITIONS
THURS NIGHT INTO FRI. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES REMAIN BELOW A HALF FOOT EARLY THIS MORNING.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ELEVATE
TIDAL ANOMALIES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. WATER LEVELS MAY
COME CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS FOR SENSITIVE AREAS
AROUND HIGH TIDE TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP WATER LEVELS BELOW
THOSE MINOR THRESHOLDS...WHICH MAKES SENSE SINCE THIS WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT WEST OF SOUTH LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WATER
LEVELS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED...SINCE IT WILL BE CLOSE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ530-531-538-539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ532>534-537-540>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL/SEARS
AVIATION...BJL/SEARS
MARINE...BJL/SEARS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL




000
FXUS61 KLWX 030713
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
313 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TODAY BEFORE STALLING OUT
OVERHEAD TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE A STALLED
FRONT...PASSING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH THEN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
THIS MORNING. POTENT UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN
OVER THE HUDSON BAY AND THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM EXTENDS SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC.

A SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. CURRENT FEELING IS THAT THIS
WILL WEAKEN AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...SO IT SHOULD NOT IMPACT
OUR AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH AND EAST
APPROACHING OUR AREA TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ALONG WITH A DEEP MIXING LAYER AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW
FOR UNSEASONABLY HOT CONDITIONS. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 90S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH TODAY...SO DEWPOINTS SHOULD MIX
DOWN INTO THE 50S AND 60S TODAY...KEEPING HEAT INDICES CLOSER TO
AIR TEMPERATURES.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING. A THETA-E
RIDGE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY MAY INCREASE INSTABILITY SOME...AND
THIS WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND INTO THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WHERE FORCING ON THE BOUNDARY WILL BE STRONGER.
THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT...AND A COUPLE
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME...BUT MOST OF THE TIME SHOULD BE DRY SINCE FORCING ON THE
FRONT WILL BE WEAK. THERE WILL BE LITTLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE FRONT...BUT IT WILL BE WARMER AND MORE HUMID NEAR AND
EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S
ACROSS MOST AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID AND
UPPER 70S NEAR DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON/BALTIMORE AND ALSO EAST OF
INTERSTATE 95.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED OVERHEAD...MOST LIKELY NEAR
INTESTATE 95 SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. AGAIN...LITTLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE BOUNDARY SO MOST AREAS WILL TURN OUT QUITE WARM WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MANY LOCATIONS. A COUPLE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.

THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THE BOUNDARY MAY SHIFT A BIT FARTHER SOUTH FOR WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IT SHOULD NOT MOVE
TOO FAR. A WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MORE WARM CONDITIONS
ACROSS ALL AREAS...BUT HUMIDITY MAY BE A BIT HIGHER ACROSS
SOUTHERN MARYLAND AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY.
THEREFORE...A COUPLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THESE AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...MOST AREAS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY SINCE THE BOUNDARY WILL BE WEAK.

A POTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE MIDWEST
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS SYSTEM BEING A BIT
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. THEREFORE...POPS HAVE BEEN
TWEAKED DOWN A BIT WITH THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATE. WILL CONTINUE
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT BUT IF THE
LATEST TRENDS CONTINUE IT ACTUALLY END UP DRY DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z MODEL SUITE HAS A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT POSITIONED OVER
SOUTHERN VA BY 12Z THURS. SOME INCONSISTENCIES ON SFC LOW PRESSURE
ORGANIZING OVER THE MIDWEST...WITH ALL BUT THE GFS DEVELOPING A
CLOSED LOW THAT THEN PROCEEDS TO DEEPEN AS IT RIDES THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. WILL GO WITH MORE OF THE CONSISTENT SOLUTION AND BRING
THE CLOSED SFC LOW INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THURS NIGHT. CONCERNING
PCPN...USING THIS SOLUTION WOULD HAVE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS
OVERSPREADING THE REGION DURING THE DAY THURS AND THRU THE NIGHT
INTO FRI...CORRESPONDING WITH THE PASSAGE WITH MID LVL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY. THE EXACT PATH OF THE LOW WILL DICTATE THE EXTEND OF ANY
TSTM ACTIVITY...WITH THE BETTER CHC IN THE LATEST RUNS INDICATING
CENTRAL VA AND SOUTH.

THE LOW PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA
THEN ATTEMPTING TO BUILD SOUTH. AM KEEPING SLIGHT CHC POPS IN DURING
THE WEEKEND TO ACCOUNT FOR MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES MVG THRU THE REGION
WHICH COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AND PSBL
EVEN TSTMS.

TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THRU THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY BR MAY REDUCE VSBYS BRIEFLY TO MVFR LEVELS
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS KMRB BUT CONVECTION
SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED/SCATTERED. A COUPLE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP NEAR THE EASTERN TERMINALS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THURS INTO FRI WITH DEVELOPING SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. PCPN WILL BE MORE OCNL IN NATURE DURING THE DAY
THURS...BCMG MORE WIDESPREAD THURS NIGHT AND FRI BEFORE TAPERING
OFF BY FRI NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS TODAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL STRENGTHEN DUE TO AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY
CHANNEL UP THE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MARYLAND
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER TONIGHT...AND FOR THE
MIDDLE PORTION OF THE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER TUESDAY
MORNING.

A BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE WATERS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
A COUPLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CONVECTION MAY BE SUPPRESSED FURTHER SOUTH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CURRENTLY EXPECTED THURS AND FRI.
DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW...COULD SEE SCA CONDITIONS
THURS NIGHT INTO FRI. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES REMAIN BELOW A HALF FOOT EARLY THIS MORNING.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ELEVATE
TIDAL ANOMALIES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. WATER LEVELS MAY
COME CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS FOR SENSITIVE AREAS
AROUND HIGH TIDE TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP WATER LEVELS BELOW
THOSE MINOR THRESHOLDS...WHICH MAKES SENSE SINCE THIS WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT WEST OF SOUTH LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WATER
LEVELS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED...SINCE IT WILL BE CLOSE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ530-531-538-539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ532>534-537-540>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL/SEARS
AVIATION...BJL/SEARS
MARINE...BJL/SEARS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL




000
FXUS61 KLWX 030713
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
313 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TODAY BEFORE STALLING OUT
OVERHEAD TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE A STALLED
FRONT...PASSING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH THEN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
THIS MORNING. POTENT UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN
OVER THE HUDSON BAY AND THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM EXTENDS SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC.

A SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. CURRENT FEELING IS THAT THIS
WILL WEAKEN AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...SO IT SHOULD NOT IMPACT
OUR AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH AND EAST
APPROACHING OUR AREA TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ALONG WITH A DEEP MIXING LAYER AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW
FOR UNSEASONABLY HOT CONDITIONS. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 90S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH TODAY...SO DEWPOINTS SHOULD MIX
DOWN INTO THE 50S AND 60S TODAY...KEEPING HEAT INDICES CLOSER TO
AIR TEMPERATURES.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING. A THETA-E
RIDGE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY MAY INCREASE INSTABILITY SOME...AND
THIS WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND INTO THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WHERE FORCING ON THE BOUNDARY WILL BE STRONGER.
THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT...AND A COUPLE
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME...BUT MOST OF THE TIME SHOULD BE DRY SINCE FORCING ON THE
FRONT WILL BE WEAK. THERE WILL BE LITTLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE FRONT...BUT IT WILL BE WARMER AND MORE HUMID NEAR AND
EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S
ACROSS MOST AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID AND
UPPER 70S NEAR DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON/BALTIMORE AND ALSO EAST OF
INTERSTATE 95.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED OVERHEAD...MOST LIKELY NEAR
INTESTATE 95 SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. AGAIN...LITTLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE BOUNDARY SO MOST AREAS WILL TURN OUT QUITE WARM WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MANY LOCATIONS. A COUPLE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.

THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THE BOUNDARY MAY SHIFT A BIT FARTHER SOUTH FOR WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IT SHOULD NOT MOVE
TOO FAR. A WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MORE WARM CONDITIONS
ACROSS ALL AREAS...BUT HUMIDITY MAY BE A BIT HIGHER ACROSS
SOUTHERN MARYLAND AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY.
THEREFORE...A COUPLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THESE AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...MOST AREAS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY SINCE THE BOUNDARY WILL BE WEAK.

A POTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE MIDWEST
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS SYSTEM BEING A BIT
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. THEREFORE...POPS HAVE BEEN
TWEAKED DOWN A BIT WITH THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATE. WILL CONTINUE
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT BUT IF THE
LATEST TRENDS CONTINUE IT ACTUALLY END UP DRY DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z MODEL SUITE HAS A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT POSITIONED OVER
SOUTHERN VA BY 12Z THURS. SOME INCONSISTENCIES ON SFC LOW PRESSURE
ORGANIZING OVER THE MIDWEST...WITH ALL BUT THE GFS DEVELOPING A
CLOSED LOW THAT THEN PROCEEDS TO DEEPEN AS IT RIDES THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. WILL GO WITH MORE OF THE CONSISTENT SOLUTION AND BRING
THE CLOSED SFC LOW INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THURS NIGHT. CONCERNING
PCPN...USING THIS SOLUTION WOULD HAVE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS
OVERSPREADING THE REGION DURING THE DAY THURS AND THRU THE NIGHT
INTO FRI...CORRESPONDING WITH THE PASSAGE WITH MID LVL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY. THE EXACT PATH OF THE LOW WILL DICTATE THE EXTEND OF ANY
TSTM ACTIVITY...WITH THE BETTER CHC IN THE LATEST RUNS INDICATING
CENTRAL VA AND SOUTH.

THE LOW PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA
THEN ATTEMPTING TO BUILD SOUTH. AM KEEPING SLIGHT CHC POPS IN DURING
THE WEEKEND TO ACCOUNT FOR MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES MVG THRU THE REGION
WHICH COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AND PSBL
EVEN TSTMS.

TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THRU THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY BR MAY REDUCE VSBYS BRIEFLY TO MVFR LEVELS
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS KMRB BUT CONVECTION
SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED/SCATTERED. A COUPLE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP NEAR THE EASTERN TERMINALS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THURS INTO FRI WITH DEVELOPING SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. PCPN WILL BE MORE OCNL IN NATURE DURING THE DAY
THURS...BCMG MORE WIDESPREAD THURS NIGHT AND FRI BEFORE TAPERING
OFF BY FRI NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS TODAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL STRENGTHEN DUE TO AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY
CHANNEL UP THE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MARYLAND
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER TONIGHT...AND FOR THE
MIDDLE PORTION OF THE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER TUESDAY
MORNING.

A BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE WATERS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
A COUPLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CONVECTION MAY BE SUPPRESSED FURTHER SOUTH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CURRENTLY EXPECTED THURS AND FRI.
DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW...COULD SEE SCA CONDITIONS
THURS NIGHT INTO FRI. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES REMAIN BELOW A HALF FOOT EARLY THIS MORNING.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ELEVATE
TIDAL ANOMALIES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. WATER LEVELS MAY
COME CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS FOR SENSITIVE AREAS
AROUND HIGH TIDE TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP WATER LEVELS BELOW
THOSE MINOR THRESHOLDS...WHICH MAKES SENSE SINCE THIS WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT WEST OF SOUTH LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WATER
LEVELS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED...SINCE IT WILL BE CLOSE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ530-531-538-539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ532>534-537-540>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL/SEARS
AVIATION...BJL/SEARS
MARINE...BJL/SEARS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL



000
FXUS61 KLWX 030713
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
313 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TODAY BEFORE STALLING OUT
OVERHEAD TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE A STALLED
FRONT...PASSING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH THEN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
THIS MORNING. POTENT UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN
OVER THE HUDSON BAY AND THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM EXTENDS SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC.

A SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. CURRENT FEELING IS THAT THIS
WILL WEAKEN AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...SO IT SHOULD NOT IMPACT
OUR AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH AND EAST
APPROACHING OUR AREA TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ALONG WITH A DEEP MIXING LAYER AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW
FOR UNSEASONABLY HOT CONDITIONS. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 90S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH TODAY...SO DEWPOINTS SHOULD MIX
DOWN INTO THE 50S AND 60S TODAY...KEEPING HEAT INDICES CLOSER TO
AIR TEMPERATURES.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING. A THETA-E
RIDGE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY MAY INCREASE INSTABILITY SOME...AND
THIS WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND INTO THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WHERE FORCING ON THE BOUNDARY WILL BE STRONGER.
THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT...AND A COUPLE
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME...BUT MOST OF THE TIME SHOULD BE DRY SINCE FORCING ON THE
FRONT WILL BE WEAK. THERE WILL BE LITTLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE FRONT...BUT IT WILL BE WARMER AND MORE HUMID NEAR AND
EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S
ACROSS MOST AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID AND
UPPER 70S NEAR DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON/BALTIMORE AND ALSO EAST OF
INTERSTATE 95.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED OVERHEAD...MOST LIKELY NEAR
INTESTATE 95 SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. AGAIN...LITTLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE BOUNDARY SO MOST AREAS WILL TURN OUT QUITE WARM WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MANY LOCATIONS. A COUPLE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.

THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THE BOUNDARY MAY SHIFT A BIT FARTHER SOUTH FOR WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IT SHOULD NOT MOVE
TOO FAR. A WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MORE WARM CONDITIONS
ACROSS ALL AREAS...BUT HUMIDITY MAY BE A BIT HIGHER ACROSS
SOUTHERN MARYLAND AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY.
THEREFORE...A COUPLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THESE AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...MOST AREAS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY SINCE THE BOUNDARY WILL BE WEAK.

A POTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE MIDWEST
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS SYSTEM BEING A BIT
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. THEREFORE...POPS HAVE BEEN
TWEAKED DOWN A BIT WITH THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATE. WILL CONTINUE
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT BUT IF THE
LATEST TRENDS CONTINUE IT ACTUALLY END UP DRY DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z MODEL SUITE HAS A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT POSITIONED OVER
SOUTHERN VA BY 12Z THURS. SOME INCONSISTENCIES ON SFC LOW PRESSURE
ORGANIZING OVER THE MIDWEST...WITH ALL BUT THE GFS DEVELOPING A
CLOSED LOW THAT THEN PROCEEDS TO DEEPEN AS IT RIDES THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. WILL GO WITH MORE OF THE CONSISTENT SOLUTION AND BRING
THE CLOSED SFC LOW INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THURS NIGHT. CONCERNING
PCPN...USING THIS SOLUTION WOULD HAVE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS
OVERSPREADING THE REGION DURING THE DAY THURS AND THRU THE NIGHT
INTO FRI...CORRESPONDING WITH THE PASSAGE WITH MID LVL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY. THE EXACT PATH OF THE LOW WILL DICTATE THE EXTEND OF ANY
TSTM ACTIVITY...WITH THE BETTER CHC IN THE LATEST RUNS INDICATING
CENTRAL VA AND SOUTH.

THE LOW PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA
THEN ATTEMPTING TO BUILD SOUTH. AM KEEPING SLIGHT CHC POPS IN DURING
THE WEEKEND TO ACCOUNT FOR MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES MVG THRU THE REGION
WHICH COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AND PSBL
EVEN TSTMS.

TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THRU THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY BR MAY REDUCE VSBYS BRIEFLY TO MVFR LEVELS
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS KMRB BUT CONVECTION
SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED/SCATTERED. A COUPLE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP NEAR THE EASTERN TERMINALS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THURS INTO FRI WITH DEVELOPING SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. PCPN WILL BE MORE OCNL IN NATURE DURING THE DAY
THURS...BCMG MORE WIDESPREAD THURS NIGHT AND FRI BEFORE TAPERING
OFF BY FRI NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS TODAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL STRENGTHEN DUE TO AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY
CHANNEL UP THE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MARYLAND
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER TONIGHT...AND FOR THE
MIDDLE PORTION OF THE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER TUESDAY
MORNING.

A BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE WATERS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
A COUPLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CONVECTION MAY BE SUPPRESSED FURTHER SOUTH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CURRENTLY EXPECTED THURS AND FRI.
DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW...COULD SEE SCA CONDITIONS
THURS NIGHT INTO FRI. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES REMAIN BELOW A HALF FOOT EARLY THIS MORNING.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ELEVATE
TIDAL ANOMALIES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. WATER LEVELS MAY
COME CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS FOR SENSITIVE AREAS
AROUND HIGH TIDE TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP WATER LEVELS BELOW
THOSE MINOR THRESHOLDS...WHICH MAKES SENSE SINCE THIS WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT WEST OF SOUTH LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WATER
LEVELS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED...SINCE IT WILL BE CLOSE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ530-531-538-539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ532>534-537-540>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL/SEARS
AVIATION...BJL/SEARS
MARINE...BJL/SEARS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030616
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
216 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CONVERGENCE INVOF LO LVL BNDRY INVOF ALBEMARLE SOUND AND JUST OFF
THE CST OF CURRITUCK COUNTY HAS RESULTED IN SCT TSTMS DEVELOPING
PAST COUPLE HRS. LIMITED MOVEMENT N IS XPCD NEXT COUPLE OF
HRS...WILL HOLD ONTO 20-40% POPS INVOF COUNTIES NR THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND/CURRITUCK SND AND OCN UNTIL ABT MIDNGT. OTRW...ITS BEEN A
ANOTHER PLEASANT MID SUMMER EVE...AND WILL BE ANOTHER QUIET/RATHER
COMFORTABLE OVRNGT W/ MNLY SKC. FOG DID NOT MATERIALIZE (INLAND)
LAST NGT...WILL KEEP OUT ANY MENTION OVRNGT. L/M60S WELL INLAND
TO L70S AT THE CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY WILL BE MUCH LIKE TODAY AS HIGH PRS DOMINATES. HOWEVER...A
LEE TROF PROGGED IN ADVANCE OF APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY WITH ANTHR WEAK
DISTURBANCE TRACKING NE ALONG THE STALLED BNDRY ACROSS NC. THE
DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND LACK OF INSTAB SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...HOWEVER ENUF MSTR / WND CONVERGENCE
SEEN TO KEEP ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION MENTIONED ACROSS SE VA/NE NC.
H85 TMPS SPRT HIGHS L-M90S XPCT M-U80S AT THE BEACHES. M CLR TO PT
CLDY MON NIGHT WITH ANY CONVECTION DSPTG AFTR SS. LOWS U60S-L70S
XCPT M70S BEACH AREAS.

ERN TROF SHARPENS ENUF TO ALLOW THE APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY TO ENTER THE
FA FROM THE N. BEST MSTR AND INSTAB SPRT FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DVLP PROGGED ACROSS NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE
MAINTAINED. OTW...SLGHT CHC AS BNDRY SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE RGN. STILL
ABOVE NRML WITH H85 TMPS SPRTG HIGHS 90-95...XCPT M-U80S BEACH AREAS
BEFORE ANY CONVECTION. ANY CONVECTION DSPTS AFTR SS. LOWS TUE NIGHT
U60S-M70S.

BNDRY WASHES OUT / DSPTS ACROSS THE REGION WED. STILL ENUF SPRT FOR
ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION. HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES THRU WED TOP OUT ARND 100 DEGREES WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES ACROSS INTERIOR SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY WITH SOUTH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY BY THIS AFTN. THERE REMAINS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS AT KECG... OTHERWISE
THE REMAINING TAF SITES WILL BE DRY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE WITH
THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS.
BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY... BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT
ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...ADDITIONAL SCA FLAGS RAISED FOR LATE AFTN INTO TUE
MORNING FOR CURRITUCK SOUND AND COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES
LIGHT TO THE VA/NC BORDER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SLY WINDS ~10 KT WITH 1-2 FT WAVES OVER THE
BAY AND 2-3 FT SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS. A WEAK TROF OF LO PRES THEN
APPROACHES FM THE NW MON WITH WINDS SLOWLY INCREASING THRU THE
DAY. SCA CONDS WILL COMMENCE OVER THE BAY AND NRN CSTL WTRS AROUND
LATE AFTN MON AS THE PRES GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE AREA. EXPECT
15-20 KT WINDS OVER THE BAY THRU ERLY TUE MORNG...WITH 4-5 FT SEAS
AND 15-25 KT WINDS OVER CSTL WTRS N OF THE VA/NC BORDER. SEAS
SHOULD DROP BLO 5 FT BY MIDDAY/AFTN TUE. WEAK SFC HI PRES RETURNS
TO THE REGION LATE TUE THRU WED WITH S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND
WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ656.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD/MAS



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030616
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
216 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CONVERGENCE INVOF LO LVL BNDRY INVOF ALBEMARLE SOUND AND JUST OFF
THE CST OF CURRITUCK COUNTY HAS RESULTED IN SCT TSTMS DEVELOPING
PAST COUPLE HRS. LIMITED MOVEMENT N IS XPCD NEXT COUPLE OF
HRS...WILL HOLD ONTO 20-40% POPS INVOF COUNTIES NR THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND/CURRITUCK SND AND OCN UNTIL ABT MIDNGT. OTRW...ITS BEEN A
ANOTHER PLEASANT MID SUMMER EVE...AND WILL BE ANOTHER QUIET/RATHER
COMFORTABLE OVRNGT W/ MNLY SKC. FOG DID NOT MATERIALIZE (INLAND)
LAST NGT...WILL KEEP OUT ANY MENTION OVRNGT. L/M60S WELL INLAND
TO L70S AT THE CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY WILL BE MUCH LIKE TODAY AS HIGH PRS DOMINATES. HOWEVER...A
LEE TROF PROGGED IN ADVANCE OF APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY WITH ANTHR WEAK
DISTURBANCE TRACKING NE ALONG THE STALLED BNDRY ACROSS NC. THE
DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND LACK OF INSTAB SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...HOWEVER ENUF MSTR / WND CONVERGENCE
SEEN TO KEEP ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION MENTIONED ACROSS SE VA/NE NC.
H85 TMPS SPRT HIGHS L-M90S XPCT M-U80S AT THE BEACHES. M CLR TO PT
CLDY MON NIGHT WITH ANY CONVECTION DSPTG AFTR SS. LOWS U60S-L70S
XCPT M70S BEACH AREAS.

ERN TROF SHARPENS ENUF TO ALLOW THE APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY TO ENTER THE
FA FROM THE N. BEST MSTR AND INSTAB SPRT FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DVLP PROGGED ACROSS NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE
MAINTAINED. OTW...SLGHT CHC AS BNDRY SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE RGN. STILL
ABOVE NRML WITH H85 TMPS SPRTG HIGHS 90-95...XCPT M-U80S BEACH AREAS
BEFORE ANY CONVECTION. ANY CONVECTION DSPTS AFTR SS. LOWS TUE NIGHT
U60S-M70S.

BNDRY WASHES OUT / DSPTS ACROSS THE REGION WED. STILL ENUF SPRT FOR
ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION. HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES THRU WED TOP OUT ARND 100 DEGREES WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES ACROSS INTERIOR SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY WITH SOUTH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY BY THIS AFTN. THERE REMAINS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS AT KECG... OTHERWISE
THE REMAINING TAF SITES WILL BE DRY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE WITH
THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS.
BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY... BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT
ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...ADDITIONAL SCA FLAGS RAISED FOR LATE AFTN INTO TUE
MORNING FOR CURRITUCK SOUND AND COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES
LIGHT TO THE VA/NC BORDER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SLY WINDS ~10 KT WITH 1-2 FT WAVES OVER THE
BAY AND 2-3 FT SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS. A WEAK TROF OF LO PRES THEN
APPROACHES FM THE NW MON WITH WINDS SLOWLY INCREASING THRU THE
DAY. SCA CONDS WILL COMMENCE OVER THE BAY AND NRN CSTL WTRS AROUND
LATE AFTN MON AS THE PRES GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE AREA. EXPECT
15-20 KT WINDS OVER THE BAY THRU ERLY TUE MORNG...WITH 4-5 FT SEAS
AND 15-25 KT WINDS OVER CSTL WTRS N OF THE VA/NC BORDER. SEAS
SHOULD DROP BLO 5 FT BY MIDDAY/AFTN TUE. WEAK SFC HI PRES RETURNS
TO THE REGION LATE TUE THRU WED WITH S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND
WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ656.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD/MAS



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030616
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
216 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CONVERGENCE INVOF LO LVL BNDRY INVOF ALBEMARLE SOUND AND JUST OFF
THE CST OF CURRITUCK COUNTY HAS RESULTED IN SCT TSTMS DEVELOPING
PAST COUPLE HRS. LIMITED MOVEMENT N IS XPCD NEXT COUPLE OF
HRS...WILL HOLD ONTO 20-40% POPS INVOF COUNTIES NR THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND/CURRITUCK SND AND OCN UNTIL ABT MIDNGT. OTRW...ITS BEEN A
ANOTHER PLEASANT MID SUMMER EVE...AND WILL BE ANOTHER QUIET/RATHER
COMFORTABLE OVRNGT W/ MNLY SKC. FOG DID NOT MATERIALIZE (INLAND)
LAST NGT...WILL KEEP OUT ANY MENTION OVRNGT. L/M60S WELL INLAND
TO L70S AT THE CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY WILL BE MUCH LIKE TODAY AS HIGH PRS DOMINATES. HOWEVER...A
LEE TROF PROGGED IN ADVANCE OF APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY WITH ANTHR WEAK
DISTURBANCE TRACKING NE ALONG THE STALLED BNDRY ACROSS NC. THE
DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND LACK OF INSTAB SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...HOWEVER ENUF MSTR / WND CONVERGENCE
SEEN TO KEEP ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION MENTIONED ACROSS SE VA/NE NC.
H85 TMPS SPRT HIGHS L-M90S XPCT M-U80S AT THE BEACHES. M CLR TO PT
CLDY MON NIGHT WITH ANY CONVECTION DSPTG AFTR SS. LOWS U60S-L70S
XCPT M70S BEACH AREAS.

ERN TROF SHARPENS ENUF TO ALLOW THE APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY TO ENTER THE
FA FROM THE N. BEST MSTR AND INSTAB SPRT FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DVLP PROGGED ACROSS NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE
MAINTAINED. OTW...SLGHT CHC AS BNDRY SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE RGN. STILL
ABOVE NRML WITH H85 TMPS SPRTG HIGHS 90-95...XCPT M-U80S BEACH AREAS
BEFORE ANY CONVECTION. ANY CONVECTION DSPTS AFTR SS. LOWS TUE NIGHT
U60S-M70S.

BNDRY WASHES OUT / DSPTS ACROSS THE REGION WED. STILL ENUF SPRT FOR
ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION. HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES THRU WED TOP OUT ARND 100 DEGREES WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES ACROSS INTERIOR SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY WITH SOUTH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY BY THIS AFTN. THERE REMAINS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS AT KECG... OTHERWISE
THE REMAINING TAF SITES WILL BE DRY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE WITH
THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS.
BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY... BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT
ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...ADDITIONAL SCA FLAGS RAISED FOR LATE AFTN INTO TUE
MORNING FOR CURRITUCK SOUND AND COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES
LIGHT TO THE VA/NC BORDER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SLY WINDS ~10 KT WITH 1-2 FT WAVES OVER THE
BAY AND 2-3 FT SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS. A WEAK TROF OF LO PRES THEN
APPROACHES FM THE NW MON WITH WINDS SLOWLY INCREASING THRU THE
DAY. SCA CONDS WILL COMMENCE OVER THE BAY AND NRN CSTL WTRS AROUND
LATE AFTN MON AS THE PRES GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE AREA. EXPECT
15-20 KT WINDS OVER THE BAY THRU ERLY TUE MORNG...WITH 4-5 FT SEAS
AND 15-25 KT WINDS OVER CSTL WTRS N OF THE VA/NC BORDER. SEAS
SHOULD DROP BLO 5 FT BY MIDDAY/AFTN TUE. WEAK SFC HI PRES RETURNS
TO THE REGION LATE TUE THRU WED WITH S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND
WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ656.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD/MAS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030616
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
216 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CONVERGENCE INVOF LO LVL BNDRY INVOF ALBEMARLE SOUND AND JUST OFF
THE CST OF CURRITUCK COUNTY HAS RESULTED IN SCT TSTMS DEVELOPING
PAST COUPLE HRS. LIMITED MOVEMENT N IS XPCD NEXT COUPLE OF
HRS...WILL HOLD ONTO 20-40% POPS INVOF COUNTIES NR THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND/CURRITUCK SND AND OCN UNTIL ABT MIDNGT. OTRW...ITS BEEN A
ANOTHER PLEASANT MID SUMMER EVE...AND WILL BE ANOTHER QUIET/RATHER
COMFORTABLE OVRNGT W/ MNLY SKC. FOG DID NOT MATERIALIZE (INLAND)
LAST NGT...WILL KEEP OUT ANY MENTION OVRNGT. L/M60S WELL INLAND
TO L70S AT THE CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY WILL BE MUCH LIKE TODAY AS HIGH PRS DOMINATES. HOWEVER...A
LEE TROF PROGGED IN ADVANCE OF APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY WITH ANTHR WEAK
DISTURBANCE TRACKING NE ALONG THE STALLED BNDRY ACROSS NC. THE
DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND LACK OF INSTAB SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...HOWEVER ENUF MSTR / WND CONVERGENCE
SEEN TO KEEP ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION MENTIONED ACROSS SE VA/NE NC.
H85 TMPS SPRT HIGHS L-M90S XPCT M-U80S AT THE BEACHES. M CLR TO PT
CLDY MON NIGHT WITH ANY CONVECTION DSPTG AFTR SS. LOWS U60S-L70S
XCPT M70S BEACH AREAS.

ERN TROF SHARPENS ENUF TO ALLOW THE APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY TO ENTER THE
FA FROM THE N. BEST MSTR AND INSTAB SPRT FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DVLP PROGGED ACROSS NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE
MAINTAINED. OTW...SLGHT CHC AS BNDRY SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE RGN. STILL
ABOVE NRML WITH H85 TMPS SPRTG HIGHS 90-95...XCPT M-U80S BEACH AREAS
BEFORE ANY CONVECTION. ANY CONVECTION DSPTS AFTR SS. LOWS TUE NIGHT
U60S-M70S.

BNDRY WASHES OUT / DSPTS ACROSS THE REGION WED. STILL ENUF SPRT FOR
ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION. HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES THRU WED TOP OUT ARND 100 DEGREES WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES ACROSS INTERIOR SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY WITH SOUTH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY BY THIS AFTN. THERE REMAINS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS AT KECG... OTHERWISE
THE REMAINING TAF SITES WILL BE DRY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE WITH
THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS.
BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY... BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT
ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...ADDITIONAL SCA FLAGS RAISED FOR LATE AFTN INTO TUE
MORNING FOR CURRITUCK SOUND AND COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES
LIGHT TO THE VA/NC BORDER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SLY WINDS ~10 KT WITH 1-2 FT WAVES OVER THE
BAY AND 2-3 FT SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS. A WEAK TROF OF LO PRES THEN
APPROACHES FM THE NW MON WITH WINDS SLOWLY INCREASING THRU THE
DAY. SCA CONDS WILL COMMENCE OVER THE BAY AND NRN CSTL WTRS AROUND
LATE AFTN MON AS THE PRES GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE AREA. EXPECT
15-20 KT WINDS OVER THE BAY THRU ERLY TUE MORNG...WITH 4-5 FT SEAS
AND 15-25 KT WINDS OVER CSTL WTRS N OF THE VA/NC BORDER. SEAS
SHOULD DROP BLO 5 FT BY MIDDAY/AFTN TUE. WEAK SFC HI PRES RETURNS
TO THE REGION LATE TUE THRU WED WITH S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND
WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ656.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD/MAS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030616
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
216 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CONVERGENCE INVOF LO LVL BNDRY INVOF ALBEMARLE SOUND AND JUST OFF
THE CST OF CURRITUCK COUNTY HAS RESULTED IN SCT TSTMS DEVELOPING
PAST COUPLE HRS. LIMITED MOVEMENT N IS XPCD NEXT COUPLE OF
HRS...WILL HOLD ONTO 20-40% POPS INVOF COUNTIES NR THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND/CURRITUCK SND AND OCN UNTIL ABT MIDNGT. OTRW...ITS BEEN A
ANOTHER PLEASANT MID SUMMER EVE...AND WILL BE ANOTHER QUIET/RATHER
COMFORTABLE OVRNGT W/ MNLY SKC. FOG DID NOT MATERIALIZE (INLAND)
LAST NGT...WILL KEEP OUT ANY MENTION OVRNGT. L/M60S WELL INLAND
TO L70S AT THE CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY WILL BE MUCH LIKE TODAY AS HIGH PRS DOMINATES. HOWEVER...A
LEE TROF PROGGED IN ADVANCE OF APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY WITH ANTHR WEAK
DISTURBANCE TRACKING NE ALONG THE STALLED BNDRY ACROSS NC. THE
DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND LACK OF INSTAB SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...HOWEVER ENUF MSTR / WND CONVERGENCE
SEEN TO KEEP ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION MENTIONED ACROSS SE VA/NE NC.
H85 TMPS SPRT HIGHS L-M90S XPCT M-U80S AT THE BEACHES. M CLR TO PT
CLDY MON NIGHT WITH ANY CONVECTION DSPTG AFTR SS. LOWS U60S-L70S
XCPT M70S BEACH AREAS.

ERN TROF SHARPENS ENUF TO ALLOW THE APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY TO ENTER THE
FA FROM THE N. BEST MSTR AND INSTAB SPRT FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DVLP PROGGED ACROSS NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE
MAINTAINED. OTW...SLGHT CHC AS BNDRY SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE RGN. STILL
ABOVE NRML WITH H85 TMPS SPRTG HIGHS 90-95...XCPT M-U80S BEACH AREAS
BEFORE ANY CONVECTION. ANY CONVECTION DSPTS AFTR SS. LOWS TUE NIGHT
U60S-M70S.

BNDRY WASHES OUT / DSPTS ACROSS THE REGION WED. STILL ENUF SPRT FOR
ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION. HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES THRU WED TOP OUT ARND 100 DEGREES WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES ACROSS INTERIOR SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY WITH SOUTH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY BY THIS AFTN. THERE REMAINS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS AT KECG... OTHERWISE
THE REMAINING TAF SITES WILL BE DRY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE WITH
THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS.
BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY... BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT
ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...ADDITIONAL SCA FLAGS RAISED FOR LATE AFTN INTO TUE
MORNING FOR CURRITUCK SOUND AND COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES
LIGHT TO THE VA/NC BORDER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SLY WINDS ~10 KT WITH 1-2 FT WAVES OVER THE
BAY AND 2-3 FT SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS. A WEAK TROF OF LO PRES THEN
APPROACHES FM THE NW MON WITH WINDS SLOWLY INCREASING THRU THE
DAY. SCA CONDS WILL COMMENCE OVER THE BAY AND NRN CSTL WTRS AROUND
LATE AFTN MON AS THE PRES GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE AREA. EXPECT
15-20 KT WINDS OVER THE BAY THRU ERLY TUE MORNG...WITH 4-5 FT SEAS
AND 15-25 KT WINDS OVER CSTL WTRS N OF THE VA/NC BORDER. SEAS
SHOULD DROP BLO 5 FT BY MIDDAY/AFTN TUE. WEAK SFC HI PRES RETURNS
TO THE REGION LATE TUE THRU WED WITH S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND
WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ656.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD/MAS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030616
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
216 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CONVERGENCE INVOF LO LVL BNDRY INVOF ALBEMARLE SOUND AND JUST OFF
THE CST OF CURRITUCK COUNTY HAS RESULTED IN SCT TSTMS DEVELOPING
PAST COUPLE HRS. LIMITED MOVEMENT N IS XPCD NEXT COUPLE OF
HRS...WILL HOLD ONTO 20-40% POPS INVOF COUNTIES NR THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND/CURRITUCK SND AND OCN UNTIL ABT MIDNGT. OTRW...ITS BEEN A
ANOTHER PLEASANT MID SUMMER EVE...AND WILL BE ANOTHER QUIET/RATHER
COMFORTABLE OVRNGT W/ MNLY SKC. FOG DID NOT MATERIALIZE (INLAND)
LAST NGT...WILL KEEP OUT ANY MENTION OVRNGT. L/M60S WELL INLAND
TO L70S AT THE CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY WILL BE MUCH LIKE TODAY AS HIGH PRS DOMINATES. HOWEVER...A
LEE TROF PROGGED IN ADVANCE OF APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY WITH ANTHR WEAK
DISTURBANCE TRACKING NE ALONG THE STALLED BNDRY ACROSS NC. THE
DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND LACK OF INSTAB SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...HOWEVER ENUF MSTR / WND CONVERGENCE
SEEN TO KEEP ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION MENTIONED ACROSS SE VA/NE NC.
H85 TMPS SPRT HIGHS L-M90S XPCT M-U80S AT THE BEACHES. M CLR TO PT
CLDY MON NIGHT WITH ANY CONVECTION DSPTG AFTR SS. LOWS U60S-L70S
XCPT M70S BEACH AREAS.

ERN TROF SHARPENS ENUF TO ALLOW THE APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY TO ENTER THE
FA FROM THE N. BEST MSTR AND INSTAB SPRT FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DVLP PROGGED ACROSS NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE
MAINTAINED. OTW...SLGHT CHC AS BNDRY SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE RGN. STILL
ABOVE NRML WITH H85 TMPS SPRTG HIGHS 90-95...XCPT M-U80S BEACH AREAS
BEFORE ANY CONVECTION. ANY CONVECTION DSPTS AFTR SS. LOWS TUE NIGHT
U60S-M70S.

BNDRY WASHES OUT / DSPTS ACROSS THE REGION WED. STILL ENUF SPRT FOR
ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION. HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES THRU WED TOP OUT ARND 100 DEGREES WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES ACROSS INTERIOR SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY WITH SOUTH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY BY THIS AFTN. THERE REMAINS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS AT KECG... OTHERWISE
THE REMAINING TAF SITES WILL BE DRY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE WITH
THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS.
BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY... BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT
ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...ADDITIONAL SCA FLAGS RAISED FOR LATE AFTN INTO TUE
MORNING FOR CURRITUCK SOUND AND COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES
LIGHT TO THE VA/NC BORDER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SLY WINDS ~10 KT WITH 1-2 FT WAVES OVER THE
BAY AND 2-3 FT SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS. A WEAK TROF OF LO PRES THEN
APPROACHES FM THE NW MON WITH WINDS SLOWLY INCREASING THRU THE
DAY. SCA CONDS WILL COMMENCE OVER THE BAY AND NRN CSTL WTRS AROUND
LATE AFTN MON AS THE PRES GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE AREA. EXPECT
15-20 KT WINDS OVER THE BAY THRU ERLY TUE MORNG...WITH 4-5 FT SEAS
AND 15-25 KT WINDS OVER CSTL WTRS N OF THE VA/NC BORDER. SEAS
SHOULD DROP BLO 5 FT BY MIDDAY/AFTN TUE. WEAK SFC HI PRES RETURNS
TO THE REGION LATE TUE THRU WED WITH S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND
WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ656.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD/MAS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 030136
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
936 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
KEEPING MAINLY DRY WEATHER IN PLACE. A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST
INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT DURING MIDWEEK.
LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 930 PM EDT SUNDAY...

NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE BEING MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. THE AREA STILL LOOKS TO HAVE A RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT WITH
A MIX OF MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND AROUND 60 TO
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT AND SKY COVER THROUGH
THE NEXT FEW HOURS BASED UPON THE LASTEST OBSERVATIONS AND
EXPECTED TRENDS.

AS OF 630 PM EDT SUNDAY...

HEADING INTO THE EVENING HOURS...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR
WINDS TO BECOME CALM WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER. BY 1000 PM...TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND THE
LOWER 70S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

AS OF 310 PM EDT SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER TO THE
REGION ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. EXPECTED LIGHT WINDS...SCANT CLOUD
COVER...AND LOW DEW POINTS WILL MAKE FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND A REPEAT OF CHILLY TEMPERATURES BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. MOST
GUIDANCE FROM THE 12Z RUN SEEMS TOO WARM BASED ON THE LOWS THAT
OCCURRED UNDER SIMILAR CONDITIONS LAST NIGHT...SO WILL BE USING
MOS GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT WHICH IS NOTABLY COOLER THAN OTHER
SOLUTIONS. EXPECT UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH
LOW/MID 50S WEST AND SOME COOLER READINGS IN THE COLDEST VALLEYS.
ALSO EXPECT SOME VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE NEAR THE RIVERS BY DAYBREAK.

THE REGION WILL BE GETTING SQUEEZED BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON MONDAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND A TROF/FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTHEAST GETS A PUSH BACK IN OUR DIRECTION AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE CAROLINAS. BEST CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WILL BE WITH
BETTER DYNAMICS OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA TO THE NORTH AND TIMING OF FRONT IS
LATE SO SLGT/LOW CHANCE POPS FOR A LATE DAY THUNDERSTORM ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WV SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT. SWLY FLOW EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHER DEWPOINTS TO MOVE IN AND HELP GENERATE SOME
INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT FEATURES
WEAK DYNAMICS...OROGRAPHIC FORCING JUST EAST OF THE RIDGE COMBINED
WITH CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROF/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY MORE SLGT/LOW CHC POPS FOR A THUNDERSTORM TO THE
EAST. THE END RESULT WILL BE DRY EARLY WITH THE CHANCE FOR A LATE
DAY THUNDERSTORM MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WV. IT WILL ALSO BE WARMER AS TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO
THE LOWER 90S EAST WITH GENERALLY MID 80S WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...

LINGERING UPPER TROUGH WELL TO THE NORTH WILL SWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE NW MONDAY NIGHT WITH THIS BOUNDARY BASICALLY
JUMPING TO THE EASTERN LEE TROUGH ON TUESDAY. FRONT LIKELY TO BE
PRECEDED BY A BROKEN BAND OF CONVECTION JUST NW OF THE CWA EARLY MONDAY
EVENING BEFORE LIKELY SPLITTING/WEAKENING UPON CROSSING THE WESTERN
RIDGES INTO DRIER AIR DURING LOSS OF HEATING. HOWEVER WITH GUIDANCE
SHOWING SOME LEFTOVER INSTABILITY NW COUNTIES AND POTENTIAL FOR MOMENTUM
TO CARRY CONVECTION A BIT FARTHER TO THE SE PENDING ORGANIZATION...INCLUDING
SOME LOW CHANCE POPS NW THIRD TUESDAY NIGHT BUT DRY ELSEWHERE.

GUIDANCE SHOWING MUCH OF THE AREA IN A SUBSIDENCE REGION TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT AIDED BY DEEP WESTERLY FLOW AND
LITTLE FOCUS. CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA FAR WEST/SW WITH
THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW AND HIGHER THETA-E...AS WELL AS THE FAR
EASTERN PERIMETER WHERE WILL BE CLOSER TO THE BETTER INSTABILITY NEAR
THE LEE TROUGH. THIS AREA ALSO WHERE MAY BE FAR ENOUGH REMOVED
FROM DOWNSLOPING AND BETTER MIXING IN THE EVENING TO POP A SHOWER
OR TWO SO RUNNING WITH 20ISH POPS IN THESE LOCATIONS. OTRW
PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY BUT QUITE WARM/HOT VIA COMPRESSION TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS MID/UPPER 80S WEST AND LOW/MID 90S EAST.

NEXT RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY
AND ATTEMPT TO LIFT THE BOUNDARY BACK NORTH THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS WARM FRONT AS THE WAVE PASSES TO THE NW. BEST INSTABILITY
AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE OVER THE FAR WEST LATER WEDNESDAY WITH
MORE OVERRUNNING OF THE FRONT POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT PENDING
JUST HOW FAR WEST THIS WAVE ENDS UP TRACKING. LATEST MODELS SUGGEST
COULD BE TOO FAR REMOVED FOR MUCH MORE THAN MID RANGE CHANCE POPS
FAR NORTH-WEST FROM LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LACK
OF DEEP CONVECTION PER ONLY WEAK LIFT/INSTABILITY. HOWEVER FOR NOW
WILL LEAVE IN SOME CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION AND SEE HOW LATER
RUNS EVOLVE GIVEN SUCH UNCERTAINTY. SHOULD AGAIN BE QUITE WARM/MUGGY
WEDNESDAY WITH THE 850 MB BOUNDARY SLIDING BACK NORTH ALLOWING
MORE OF A SW TRAJECTORY WHICH SHOULD AT LEAST HOLD HIGHS A CATEGORY
OR SO BELOW VALUES SEEN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT SUNDAY...

TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS
THE REGION GETS CAUGHT UNDER THE SURFACE-850 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
WITHIN A NEARBY FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHED BACK INTO THE MIDWEST. A COUPLE
OF SHORTWAVES RIDING ALONG THESE FEATURES TO AID CONVECTIVE CHANCES...ESPCLY
NORTH/WEST THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS DECENT LOW PRESSURE PASSES
JUST NORTH...SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS. STRONGER
ENERGY ALOFT DROPPING OVER THE CENTRAL STATES UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN
START TO DIG OUT ANOTHER RATHER STRONG 5H TROUGH TO THE NW FRIDAY...WITH
AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE HELPING TO DRIVE THE NEXT COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION BY FRIDAY EVENING. EARLIER MODELS AGREED ON QUITE
A BIT OF DEEP MOISTURE BEING PULLED NORTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT/WAVE
ON FRIDAY WITH GOOD DYNAMICS AND JET FEATURES ALOFT. THIS WOULD
SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS FRIDAY UNLESS THE FRONT IS
FASTER SIMILAR TO THE LATEST GFS WHICH WOULD TREND THE BEST
COVERAGE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THUS HAVE TRENDED THE
HIGHEST CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
WHILE KEEPING HIGH CHANCES FRIDAY FOR CONSISTENCY AND LINE WITH
THE CURRENT CMC AND EARLIER ECMWF. WILL BE A BIT COOLER BUT STILL
HUMID PER MORE CLOUDS/SHRA WITH HIGHS MOSTLY 80S THURSDAY...
LOWERING TO 70S WEST TO MID 80S EAST FRIDAY.

SIMILAR TO THE LAST WEEK OR TWO...APPEARS ANOTHER SURGE OF MUCH DRIER/COOLER
AIR LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT NEXT WEEKEND AS YET ANOTHER 5H TROUGH
CARVES ITSELF OUT ACROSS THE EAST. GUIDANCE EVEN COOLER ALOFT
WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN PROGGED 850 MB TEMPS AS COOL AS +12C MOUNTAINS
BUT MAY BE TOO COOL THAT FAR OUT. HOWEVER STILL ENOUGH TO DROP
HIGHS BACK IN THE 70S MOUNTAINS AND ONLY LOW/MID 80S OUT EAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS/WEDGES IN FROM THE NORTH. RESIDUAL POPS A BIT
TRICKY TOWARD DAYS 6/7 BUT SHOULD BE DRIER WITH PERHAPS SOME
LEFTOVER UPSLOPE SHOWERS WEST SATURDAY AND ONLY ISOLATED FAR
SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT SUNDAY...

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD AS
A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BE INCREASING THROUGH THE PERIOD ON THE HEELS
OF SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED TO EVOLVE MORE EARNESTLY ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT INTO EASTERN KY...FAR WESTERN WV...BEFORE
DISSIPATING AS THE ACTIVITY ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS
DURING THE EVENING AND INTO A MUCH MORE STABLE AIR MASS IN OUR
REGION. HAVE NOT ADVERTISED ANY PRECIPITATION THIS TAF VALID
PERIOD.

FOG CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL AS AIR MASS IS VERY DRY. HOWEVER...AS IS
OFTEN THE CASE FOR LWB IN THE GREENBRIER VALLEY...RADIATIONAL
COOLING SHOULD SUPPORT FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING AND THUS HAVE ADVERTISED A PERIOD OF 1/4SM FG VV001.
ELSEWHERE...CONFIDENCE IN ANY FOG IS LOW...PERHAPS A PERIOD OF
MVFR BR AND BCB/LYH.

WINDS...MOSTLY CALM OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHWEST MONDAY MID-
MORNING AND INCREASING INTO THE 7-8KT RANGE MOST SITES BY LATE
MORNING. SOME LOW END GUSTS POSSIBLE BLF AND ROA...BUT HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THOSE IN THE TAF JUST YET.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF
VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONT
WILL SET UP IN THE MID ATLANTIC WHICH COULD BRING A FEW SHRA/TSRA
BY TUESDAY...WITH PERHAPS A BIT MORE COVERAGE LATER WEDNESDAY AT
THIS POINT. THUS THE THREAT OF SUB-VFR REMAINS LOW UNTIL AROUND
MIDWEEK...EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL FOG POTENTIAL AT KLWB/KBCB EACH
MORNING BETWEEN 09-13Z.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...DS/MBS
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...MBS/RAB



000
FXUS61 KRNK 030136
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
936 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
KEEPING MAINLY DRY WEATHER IN PLACE. A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST
INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT DURING MIDWEEK.
LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 930 PM EDT SUNDAY...

NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE BEING MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. THE AREA STILL LOOKS TO HAVE A RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT WITH
A MIX OF MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND AROUND 60 TO
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT AND SKY COVER THROUGH
THE NEXT FEW HOURS BASED UPON THE LASTEST OBSERVATIONS AND
EXPECTED TRENDS.

AS OF 630 PM EDT SUNDAY...

HEADING INTO THE EVENING HOURS...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR
WINDS TO BECOME CALM WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER. BY 1000 PM...TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND THE
LOWER 70S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

AS OF 310 PM EDT SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER TO THE
REGION ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. EXPECTED LIGHT WINDS...SCANT CLOUD
COVER...AND LOW DEW POINTS WILL MAKE FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND A REPEAT OF CHILLY TEMPERATURES BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. MOST
GUIDANCE FROM THE 12Z RUN SEEMS TOO WARM BASED ON THE LOWS THAT
OCCURRED UNDER SIMILAR CONDITIONS LAST NIGHT...SO WILL BE USING
MOS GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT WHICH IS NOTABLY COOLER THAN OTHER
SOLUTIONS. EXPECT UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH
LOW/MID 50S WEST AND SOME COOLER READINGS IN THE COLDEST VALLEYS.
ALSO EXPECT SOME VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE NEAR THE RIVERS BY DAYBREAK.

THE REGION WILL BE GETTING SQUEEZED BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON MONDAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND A TROF/FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTHEAST GETS A PUSH BACK IN OUR DIRECTION AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE CAROLINAS. BEST CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WILL BE WITH
BETTER DYNAMICS OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA TO THE NORTH AND TIMING OF FRONT IS
LATE SO SLGT/LOW CHANCE POPS FOR A LATE DAY THUNDERSTORM ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WV SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT. SWLY FLOW EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHER DEWPOINTS TO MOVE IN AND HELP GENERATE SOME
INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT FEATURES
WEAK DYNAMICS...OROGRAPHIC FORCING JUST EAST OF THE RIDGE COMBINED
WITH CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROF/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY MORE SLGT/LOW CHC POPS FOR A THUNDERSTORM TO THE
EAST. THE END RESULT WILL BE DRY EARLY WITH THE CHANCE FOR A LATE
DAY THUNDERSTORM MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WV. IT WILL ALSO BE WARMER AS TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO
THE LOWER 90S EAST WITH GENERALLY MID 80S WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...

LINGERING UPPER TROUGH WELL TO THE NORTH WILL SWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE NW MONDAY NIGHT WITH THIS BOUNDARY BASICALLY
JUMPING TO THE EASTERN LEE TROUGH ON TUESDAY. FRONT LIKELY TO BE
PRECEDED BY A BROKEN BAND OF CONVECTION JUST NW OF THE CWA EARLY MONDAY
EVENING BEFORE LIKELY SPLITTING/WEAKENING UPON CROSSING THE WESTERN
RIDGES INTO DRIER AIR DURING LOSS OF HEATING. HOWEVER WITH GUIDANCE
SHOWING SOME LEFTOVER INSTABILITY NW COUNTIES AND POTENTIAL FOR MOMENTUM
TO CARRY CONVECTION A BIT FARTHER TO THE SE PENDING ORGANIZATION...INCLUDING
SOME LOW CHANCE POPS NW THIRD TUESDAY NIGHT BUT DRY ELSEWHERE.

GUIDANCE SHOWING MUCH OF THE AREA IN A SUBSIDENCE REGION TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT AIDED BY DEEP WESTERLY FLOW AND
LITTLE FOCUS. CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA FAR WEST/SW WITH
THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW AND HIGHER THETA-E...AS WELL AS THE FAR
EASTERN PERIMETER WHERE WILL BE CLOSER TO THE BETTER INSTABILITY NEAR
THE LEE TROUGH. THIS AREA ALSO WHERE MAY BE FAR ENOUGH REMOVED
FROM DOWNSLOPING AND BETTER MIXING IN THE EVENING TO POP A SHOWER
OR TWO SO RUNNING WITH 20ISH POPS IN THESE LOCATIONS. OTRW
PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY BUT QUITE WARM/HOT VIA COMPRESSION TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS MID/UPPER 80S WEST AND LOW/MID 90S EAST.

NEXT RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY
AND ATTEMPT TO LIFT THE BOUNDARY BACK NORTH THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS WARM FRONT AS THE WAVE PASSES TO THE NW. BEST INSTABILITY
AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE OVER THE FAR WEST LATER WEDNESDAY WITH
MORE OVERRUNNING OF THE FRONT POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT PENDING
JUST HOW FAR WEST THIS WAVE ENDS UP TRACKING. LATEST MODELS SUGGEST
COULD BE TOO FAR REMOVED FOR MUCH MORE THAN MID RANGE CHANCE POPS
FAR NORTH-WEST FROM LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LACK
OF DEEP CONVECTION PER ONLY WEAK LIFT/INSTABILITY. HOWEVER FOR NOW
WILL LEAVE IN SOME CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION AND SEE HOW LATER
RUNS EVOLVE GIVEN SUCH UNCERTAINTY. SHOULD AGAIN BE QUITE WARM/MUGGY
WEDNESDAY WITH THE 850 MB BOUNDARY SLIDING BACK NORTH ALLOWING
MORE OF A SW TRAJECTORY WHICH SHOULD AT LEAST HOLD HIGHS A CATEGORY
OR SO BELOW VALUES SEEN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT SUNDAY...

TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS
THE REGION GETS CAUGHT UNDER THE SURFACE-850 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
WITHIN A NEARBY FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHED BACK INTO THE MIDWEST. A COUPLE
OF SHORTWAVES RIDING ALONG THESE FEATURES TO AID CONVECTIVE CHANCES...ESPCLY
NORTH/WEST THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS DECENT LOW PRESSURE PASSES
JUST NORTH...SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS. STRONGER
ENERGY ALOFT DROPPING OVER THE CENTRAL STATES UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN
START TO DIG OUT ANOTHER RATHER STRONG 5H TROUGH TO THE NW FRIDAY...WITH
AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE HELPING TO DRIVE THE NEXT COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION BY FRIDAY EVENING. EARLIER MODELS AGREED ON QUITE
A BIT OF DEEP MOISTURE BEING PULLED NORTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT/WAVE
ON FRIDAY WITH GOOD DYNAMICS AND JET FEATURES ALOFT. THIS WOULD
SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS FRIDAY UNLESS THE FRONT IS
FASTER SIMILAR TO THE LATEST GFS WHICH WOULD TREND THE BEST
COVERAGE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THUS HAVE TRENDED THE
HIGHEST CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
WHILE KEEPING HIGH CHANCES FRIDAY FOR CONSISTENCY AND LINE WITH
THE CURRENT CMC AND EARLIER ECMWF. WILL BE A BIT COOLER BUT STILL
HUMID PER MORE CLOUDS/SHRA WITH HIGHS MOSTLY 80S THURSDAY...
LOWERING TO 70S WEST TO MID 80S EAST FRIDAY.

SIMILAR TO THE LAST WEEK OR TWO...APPEARS ANOTHER SURGE OF MUCH DRIER/COOLER
AIR LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT NEXT WEEKEND AS YET ANOTHER 5H TROUGH
CARVES ITSELF OUT ACROSS THE EAST. GUIDANCE EVEN COOLER ALOFT
WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN PROGGED 850 MB TEMPS AS COOL AS +12C MOUNTAINS
BUT MAY BE TOO COOL THAT FAR OUT. HOWEVER STILL ENOUGH TO DROP
HIGHS BACK IN THE 70S MOUNTAINS AND ONLY LOW/MID 80S OUT EAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS/WEDGES IN FROM THE NORTH. RESIDUAL POPS A BIT
TRICKY TOWARD DAYS 6/7 BUT SHOULD BE DRIER WITH PERHAPS SOME
LEFTOVER UPSLOPE SHOWERS WEST SATURDAY AND ONLY ISOLATED FAR
SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT SUNDAY...

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD AS
A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BE INCREASING THROUGH THE PERIOD ON THE HEELS
OF SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED TO EVOLVE MORE EARNESTLY ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT INTO EASTERN KY...FAR WESTERN WV...BEFORE
DISSIPATING AS THE ACTIVITY ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS
DURING THE EVENING AND INTO A MUCH MORE STABLE AIR MASS IN OUR
REGION. HAVE NOT ADVERTISED ANY PRECIPITATION THIS TAF VALID
PERIOD.

FOG CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL AS AIR MASS IS VERY DRY. HOWEVER...AS IS
OFTEN THE CASE FOR LWB IN THE GREENBRIER VALLEY...RADIATIONAL
COOLING SHOULD SUPPORT FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING AND THUS HAVE ADVERTISED A PERIOD OF 1/4SM FG VV001.
ELSEWHERE...CONFIDENCE IN ANY FOG IS LOW...PERHAPS A PERIOD OF
MVFR BR AND BCB/LYH.

WINDS...MOSTLY CALM OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHWEST MONDAY MID-
MORNING AND INCREASING INTO THE 7-8KT RANGE MOST SITES BY LATE
MORNING. SOME LOW END GUSTS POSSIBLE BLF AND ROA...BUT HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THOSE IN THE TAF JUST YET.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF
VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONT
WILL SET UP IN THE MID ATLANTIC WHICH COULD BRING A FEW SHRA/TSRA
BY TUESDAY...WITH PERHAPS A BIT MORE COVERAGE LATER WEDNESDAY AT
THIS POINT. THUS THE THREAT OF SUB-VFR REMAINS LOW UNTIL AROUND
MIDWEEK...EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL FOG POTENTIAL AT KLWB/KBCB EACH
MORNING BETWEEN 09-13Z.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...DS/MBS
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...MBS/RAB




000
FXUS61 KLWX 030115
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
915 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND ENTER THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL IN THE AREA TUESDAY...SLIDE SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY...THEN LIFT BACK NORTH THURSDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL THEN RIDE EAST ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY. AFTER THIS LOW PASSES
THE FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT IS DROPPING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. AS THE PATCH OF DENSER CIRRUS EXITS TO THE EAST...THE
BULK OF THE NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH SOME ADDITIONAL
HIGH CLOUDS COULD ENTER FROM THE WEST LATE. COMBINED WITH LIGHT
WINDS...THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE TYPICAL SPOTS IN
CENTRAL VA AND THE WESTERN VALLEYS...BUT THE DRY AIRMASS LOOKS TO
HOLD FIRM AND LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL. IT LOOKS LIKE IF THERE IS DEW
POINT ADVECTION...IT WILL BE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...SO
SOME OF THE VALLEYS COULD STILL RADIATE OUT INTO THE 50S.
OTHERWISE 60S FOR MOST AND 70S URBAN CENTERS/BAYSHORE.

ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL APPROACH US MONDAY...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
NOT MOISTEN APPRECIABLY (WESTERLY FLOW EXCEPT AT THE LOW LEVELS)
AND THE BULK OF THE FORCING WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH. DEPENDING ON
THE MODEL OF CHOICE...SOME CONVECTION MAY SNEAK INTO THE NORTHERN
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS (TO PERHAPS AS FAR EAST AS THE MARTINSBURG AREA)
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. IF ANYTHING DOES HOLD TOGETHER FROM THE
NORTHWEST...THE TIME OF ARRIVAL LOOKS TO BE MORE IN THE EVENING
TIME FRAME THOUGH. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP SO THERE
COULD BE SOME GUSTS AROUND 20-25 MPH. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
DRAG WARMER AIR NORTH SO HIGHS WILL RISE SEVERAL DEGREES COMPARED
TO TODAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 90S IN MOST AREAS WITH MID 90S
IN THE HOTTEST SPOTS. HOWEVER DEW POINTS WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S SO THE HEAT INDICES WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER THAN THE AIR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONT MOVES IN MONDAY NIGHT. SHEAR DOES
INCREASE...HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY LIMITED
AND THIS WILL IN TURN LIMIT CAPE...SO THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAVING TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA RATHER THAN
DEVELOP LOCALLY. BEST FORCING ALOFT WILL STAY NORTH. THUS...IT
APPEARS THAT STORMS WHICH DEVELOP TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL ENTER THE
CWA DURING THE EVENING...BUT APPEAR LIKELY TO DIMINISH TO SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY EVEN BEFORE REACHING THE METRO AREA. THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER SHOULD HOLD LOWS UP A BIT WARMER THAN
TONIGHT`S READINGS. PLACES THAT RECEIVE ANY RAIN COULD ALSO SEE
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT IF SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP.

LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL BE MOVING NORTHWARD WHILE A
BERMUDA HIGH PERSISTS IN THE ATLANTIC TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BE STALLED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR TUESDAY. DUE TO THE TIME OF YEAR...THE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT IS WEAK BUT DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS. IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND IN THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR
ISO-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. FCST SOUNDINGS AT
DCA-NHK SHOW 1-2K J/KG OF SBCAPE WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR. A
STABLE LAYER WILL LIKELY BE OVERCOME BY LATE AFTERNOON AND SOME
STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS S MD AND
SURROUNDING WATERS.

THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS GRADUALLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING OF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A STALLED
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WHILE FINER
SCALE DETAILS REMAIN TO BE SEEN...FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH
HIGH CHANCE POPS AS THE WAVE PASSES. CONVECTION POTENTIAL WILL
DEPEND ON EXACT TIMING/PLACEMENT OF THE WAVE.

GUIDANCE DIVERGES AFTER THURSDAY...WITH SOME SOLUTIONS SUGGESTING
THE FRONT SAGS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO LEAVE THE AREA DRY...WHILE
OTHER SOLUTIONS KEEP THE FRONT STALLED OVER THE AREA WITH A SECOND
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. CLIMATOLOGY WOULD
SUGGEST A SLOWER SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT...AND AS SUCH
HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ATTEMPT TO MAKE A RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. DO NOT HAVE VERY
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VSBY REDUCTIONS IN BR AT THE WESTERN TERMINALS
BUT IF IT DOES OCCUR CHO WOULD HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE. A FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW MONDAY...RESULTING IN INCREASING S/SW WIND
GUSTS TO AROUND 15-20 KT...BUT OTHERWISE NO AVIATION IMPACTS WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.

MRB WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER/STORM BY EARLY MONDAY
EVENING. LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW FAR S/E (I.E. THE METRO SITES)
THIS ACTIVITY MAKES IT BEFORE WEAKENING. IF IT DOES HOLD TOGETHER...SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF BR LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AT MRB/CHO AS WELL AS ANY LOCATION WHICH SEES RAIN.

A STALLED COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE I-95 TERMINALS TUESDAY AND
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN LWR CIGS/VSBYS ASSOCIATED W/ SHWRS/TSTMS WED
NIGHT- THU. WIND DIRECTION FORECAST UNCERTAIN AND DEPENDS ON
PLACEMENT OF STALLED FRONT...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AOB 10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
GUSTIEST WINDS (UP TO 15 KT) THIS EVENING ARE OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE BAY. ALTHOUGH WINDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY
LIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...THERE MAY BE A FEW CONTINUED
GUSTS TO 15 KT DUE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE BAY.

WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE SOUTH ON MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
HELP WINDS TO REACH SCA LEVELS BY AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT SCA GOING
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING ALL WATERS...WITH THE SCA FOR THE BAY AND
ADJACENT WATERS CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE NW MONDAY EVENING...BUT SHOULD BE ON
A WEAKENING TREND IF THEY DO.

A STALLED COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE WATERS TUESDAY AND SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS THAT MAY WARRANT A SMW.
DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE GRADIENT...A SCA MAY BE NEEDED
TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.

WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ON
THURSDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE WATERS ALONG THE
FRONT. SHOULD THIS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE BE STRONGER THAN WHAT THE
CURRENT CONSENSUS SUGGEST THEN THERE IS A CHANCE OF SCA GUSTS
THURSDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION IS LOW AT THIS TIME
GIVEN MODEL SPREAD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES REMAIN BELOW A HALF FOOT THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT WILL ELEVATE TIDAL ANOMALIES ON
MONDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MINOR FLOODING.
THIS POSSIBILITY WILL REQUIRE MONITORING HOWEVER.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...ADS/RCM
SHORT TERM...HAS/RCM
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...ADS/HAS/DFH
MARINE...ADS/HAS/RCM/DFH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ADS/RCM




000
FXUS61 KLWX 030115
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
915 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND ENTER THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL IN THE AREA TUESDAY...SLIDE SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY...THEN LIFT BACK NORTH THURSDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL THEN RIDE EAST ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY. AFTER THIS LOW PASSES
THE FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT IS DROPPING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. AS THE PATCH OF DENSER CIRRUS EXITS TO THE EAST...THE
BULK OF THE NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH SOME ADDITIONAL
HIGH CLOUDS COULD ENTER FROM THE WEST LATE. COMBINED WITH LIGHT
WINDS...THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE TYPICAL SPOTS IN
CENTRAL VA AND THE WESTERN VALLEYS...BUT THE DRY AIRMASS LOOKS TO
HOLD FIRM AND LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL. IT LOOKS LIKE IF THERE IS DEW
POINT ADVECTION...IT WILL BE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...SO
SOME OF THE VALLEYS COULD STILL RADIATE OUT INTO THE 50S.
OTHERWISE 60S FOR MOST AND 70S URBAN CENTERS/BAYSHORE.

ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL APPROACH US MONDAY...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
NOT MOISTEN APPRECIABLY (WESTERLY FLOW EXCEPT AT THE LOW LEVELS)
AND THE BULK OF THE FORCING WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH. DEPENDING ON
THE MODEL OF CHOICE...SOME CONVECTION MAY SNEAK INTO THE NORTHERN
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS (TO PERHAPS AS FAR EAST AS THE MARTINSBURG AREA)
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. IF ANYTHING DOES HOLD TOGETHER FROM THE
NORTHWEST...THE TIME OF ARRIVAL LOOKS TO BE MORE IN THE EVENING
TIME FRAME THOUGH. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP SO THERE
COULD BE SOME GUSTS AROUND 20-25 MPH. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
DRAG WARMER AIR NORTH SO HIGHS WILL RISE SEVERAL DEGREES COMPARED
TO TODAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 90S IN MOST AREAS WITH MID 90S
IN THE HOTTEST SPOTS. HOWEVER DEW POINTS WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S SO THE HEAT INDICES WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER THAN THE AIR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONT MOVES IN MONDAY NIGHT. SHEAR DOES
INCREASE...HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY LIMITED
AND THIS WILL IN TURN LIMIT CAPE...SO THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAVING TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA RATHER THAN
DEVELOP LOCALLY. BEST FORCING ALOFT WILL STAY NORTH. THUS...IT
APPEARS THAT STORMS WHICH DEVELOP TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL ENTER THE
CWA DURING THE EVENING...BUT APPEAR LIKELY TO DIMINISH TO SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY EVEN BEFORE REACHING THE METRO AREA. THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER SHOULD HOLD LOWS UP A BIT WARMER THAN
TONIGHT`S READINGS. PLACES THAT RECEIVE ANY RAIN COULD ALSO SEE
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT IF SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP.

LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL BE MOVING NORTHWARD WHILE A
BERMUDA HIGH PERSISTS IN THE ATLANTIC TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BE STALLED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR TUESDAY. DUE TO THE TIME OF YEAR...THE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT IS WEAK BUT DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS. IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND IN THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR
ISO-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. FCST SOUNDINGS AT
DCA-NHK SHOW 1-2K J/KG OF SBCAPE WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR. A
STABLE LAYER WILL LIKELY BE OVERCOME BY LATE AFTERNOON AND SOME
STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS S MD AND
SURROUNDING WATERS.

THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS GRADUALLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING OF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A STALLED
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WHILE FINER
SCALE DETAILS REMAIN TO BE SEEN...FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH
HIGH CHANCE POPS AS THE WAVE PASSES. CONVECTION POTENTIAL WILL
DEPEND ON EXACT TIMING/PLACEMENT OF THE WAVE.

GUIDANCE DIVERGES AFTER THURSDAY...WITH SOME SOLUTIONS SUGGESTING
THE FRONT SAGS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO LEAVE THE AREA DRY...WHILE
OTHER SOLUTIONS KEEP THE FRONT STALLED OVER THE AREA WITH A SECOND
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. CLIMATOLOGY WOULD
SUGGEST A SLOWER SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT...AND AS SUCH
HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ATTEMPT TO MAKE A RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. DO NOT HAVE VERY
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VSBY REDUCTIONS IN BR AT THE WESTERN TERMINALS
BUT IF IT DOES OCCUR CHO WOULD HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE. A FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW MONDAY...RESULTING IN INCREASING S/SW WIND
GUSTS TO AROUND 15-20 KT...BUT OTHERWISE NO AVIATION IMPACTS WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.

MRB WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER/STORM BY EARLY MONDAY
EVENING. LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW FAR S/E (I.E. THE METRO SITES)
THIS ACTIVITY MAKES IT BEFORE WEAKENING. IF IT DOES HOLD TOGETHER...SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF BR LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AT MRB/CHO AS WELL AS ANY LOCATION WHICH SEES RAIN.

A STALLED COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE I-95 TERMINALS TUESDAY AND
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN LWR CIGS/VSBYS ASSOCIATED W/ SHWRS/TSTMS WED
NIGHT- THU. WIND DIRECTION FORECAST UNCERTAIN AND DEPENDS ON
PLACEMENT OF STALLED FRONT...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AOB 10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
GUSTIEST WINDS (UP TO 15 KT) THIS EVENING ARE OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE BAY. ALTHOUGH WINDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY
LIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...THERE MAY BE A FEW CONTINUED
GUSTS TO 15 KT DUE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE BAY.

WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE SOUTH ON MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
HELP WINDS TO REACH SCA LEVELS BY AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT SCA GOING
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING ALL WATERS...WITH THE SCA FOR THE BAY AND
ADJACENT WATERS CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE NW MONDAY EVENING...BUT SHOULD BE ON
A WEAKENING TREND IF THEY DO.

A STALLED COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE WATERS TUESDAY AND SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS THAT MAY WARRANT A SMW.
DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE GRADIENT...A SCA MAY BE NEEDED
TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.

WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ON
THURSDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE WATERS ALONG THE
FRONT. SHOULD THIS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE BE STRONGER THAN WHAT THE
CURRENT CONSENSUS SUGGEST THEN THERE IS A CHANCE OF SCA GUSTS
THURSDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION IS LOW AT THIS TIME
GIVEN MODEL SPREAD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES REMAIN BELOW A HALF FOOT THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT WILL ELEVATE TIDAL ANOMALIES ON
MONDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MINOR FLOODING.
THIS POSSIBILITY WILL REQUIRE MONITORING HOWEVER.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...ADS/RCM
SHORT TERM...HAS/RCM
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...ADS/HAS/DFH
MARINE...ADS/HAS/RCM/DFH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ADS/RCM



000
FXUS61 KLWX 030115
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
915 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND ENTER THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL IN THE AREA TUESDAY...SLIDE SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY...THEN LIFT BACK NORTH THURSDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL THEN RIDE EAST ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY. AFTER THIS LOW PASSES
THE FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT IS DROPPING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. AS THE PATCH OF DENSER CIRRUS EXITS TO THE EAST...THE
BULK OF THE NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH SOME ADDITIONAL
HIGH CLOUDS COULD ENTER FROM THE WEST LATE. COMBINED WITH LIGHT
WINDS...THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE TYPICAL SPOTS IN
CENTRAL VA AND THE WESTERN VALLEYS...BUT THE DRY AIRMASS LOOKS TO
HOLD FIRM AND LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL. IT LOOKS LIKE IF THERE IS DEW
POINT ADVECTION...IT WILL BE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...SO
SOME OF THE VALLEYS COULD STILL RADIATE OUT INTO THE 50S.
OTHERWISE 60S FOR MOST AND 70S URBAN CENTERS/BAYSHORE.

ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL APPROACH US MONDAY...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
NOT MOISTEN APPRECIABLY (WESTERLY FLOW EXCEPT AT THE LOW LEVELS)
AND THE BULK OF THE FORCING WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH. DEPENDING ON
THE MODEL OF CHOICE...SOME CONVECTION MAY SNEAK INTO THE NORTHERN
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS (TO PERHAPS AS FAR EAST AS THE MARTINSBURG AREA)
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. IF ANYTHING DOES HOLD TOGETHER FROM THE
NORTHWEST...THE TIME OF ARRIVAL LOOKS TO BE MORE IN THE EVENING
TIME FRAME THOUGH. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP SO THERE
COULD BE SOME GUSTS AROUND 20-25 MPH. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
DRAG WARMER AIR NORTH SO HIGHS WILL RISE SEVERAL DEGREES COMPARED
TO TODAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 90S IN MOST AREAS WITH MID 90S
IN THE HOTTEST SPOTS. HOWEVER DEW POINTS WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S SO THE HEAT INDICES WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER THAN THE AIR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONT MOVES IN MONDAY NIGHT. SHEAR DOES
INCREASE...HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY LIMITED
AND THIS WILL IN TURN LIMIT CAPE...SO THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAVING TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA RATHER THAN
DEVELOP LOCALLY. BEST FORCING ALOFT WILL STAY NORTH. THUS...IT
APPEARS THAT STORMS WHICH DEVELOP TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL ENTER THE
CWA DURING THE EVENING...BUT APPEAR LIKELY TO DIMINISH TO SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY EVEN BEFORE REACHING THE METRO AREA. THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER SHOULD HOLD LOWS UP A BIT WARMER THAN
TONIGHT`S READINGS. PLACES THAT RECEIVE ANY RAIN COULD ALSO SEE
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT IF SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP.

LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL BE MOVING NORTHWARD WHILE A
BERMUDA HIGH PERSISTS IN THE ATLANTIC TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BE STALLED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR TUESDAY. DUE TO THE TIME OF YEAR...THE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT IS WEAK BUT DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS. IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND IN THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR
ISO-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. FCST SOUNDINGS AT
DCA-NHK SHOW 1-2K J/KG OF SBCAPE WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR. A
STABLE LAYER WILL LIKELY BE OVERCOME BY LATE AFTERNOON AND SOME
STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS S MD AND
SURROUNDING WATERS.

THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS GRADUALLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING OF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A STALLED
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WHILE FINER
SCALE DETAILS REMAIN TO BE SEEN...FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH
HIGH CHANCE POPS AS THE WAVE PASSES. CONVECTION POTENTIAL WILL
DEPEND ON EXACT TIMING/PLACEMENT OF THE WAVE.

GUIDANCE DIVERGES AFTER THURSDAY...WITH SOME SOLUTIONS SUGGESTING
THE FRONT SAGS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO LEAVE THE AREA DRY...WHILE
OTHER SOLUTIONS KEEP THE FRONT STALLED OVER THE AREA WITH A SECOND
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. CLIMATOLOGY WOULD
SUGGEST A SLOWER SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT...AND AS SUCH
HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ATTEMPT TO MAKE A RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. DO NOT HAVE VERY
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VSBY REDUCTIONS IN BR AT THE WESTERN TERMINALS
BUT IF IT DOES OCCUR CHO WOULD HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE. A FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW MONDAY...RESULTING IN INCREASING S/SW WIND
GUSTS TO AROUND 15-20 KT...BUT OTHERWISE NO AVIATION IMPACTS WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.

MRB WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER/STORM BY EARLY MONDAY
EVENING. LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW FAR S/E (I.E. THE METRO SITES)
THIS ACTIVITY MAKES IT BEFORE WEAKENING. IF IT DOES HOLD TOGETHER...SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF BR LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AT MRB/CHO AS WELL AS ANY LOCATION WHICH SEES RAIN.

A STALLED COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE I-95 TERMINALS TUESDAY AND
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN LWR CIGS/VSBYS ASSOCIATED W/ SHWRS/TSTMS WED
NIGHT- THU. WIND DIRECTION FORECAST UNCERTAIN AND DEPENDS ON
PLACEMENT OF STALLED FRONT...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AOB 10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
GUSTIEST WINDS (UP TO 15 KT) THIS EVENING ARE OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE BAY. ALTHOUGH WINDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY
LIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...THERE MAY BE A FEW CONTINUED
GUSTS TO 15 KT DUE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE BAY.

WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE SOUTH ON MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
HELP WINDS TO REACH SCA LEVELS BY AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT SCA GOING
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING ALL WATERS...WITH THE SCA FOR THE BAY AND
ADJACENT WATERS CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE NW MONDAY EVENING...BUT SHOULD BE ON
A WEAKENING TREND IF THEY DO.

A STALLED COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE WATERS TUESDAY AND SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS THAT MAY WARRANT A SMW.
DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE GRADIENT...A SCA MAY BE NEEDED
TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.

WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ON
THURSDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE WATERS ALONG THE
FRONT. SHOULD THIS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE BE STRONGER THAN WHAT THE
CURRENT CONSENSUS SUGGEST THEN THERE IS A CHANCE OF SCA GUSTS
THURSDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION IS LOW AT THIS TIME
GIVEN MODEL SPREAD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES REMAIN BELOW A HALF FOOT THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT WILL ELEVATE TIDAL ANOMALIES ON
MONDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MINOR FLOODING.
THIS POSSIBILITY WILL REQUIRE MONITORING HOWEVER.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...ADS/RCM
SHORT TERM...HAS/RCM
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...ADS/HAS/DFH
MARINE...ADS/HAS/RCM/DFH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ADS/RCM



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030058
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
858 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONVERGENCE INVOF LO LVL BNDRY INVOF ALBEMARLE SOUND AND JUST OFF
THE CST OF CURRITUCK COUNTY HAS RESULTED IN SCT TSTMS DEVELOPING
PAST COUPLE HRS. LIMITED MOVEMENT N IS XPCD NEXT COUPLE OF
HRS...WILL HOLD ONTO 20-40% POPS INVOF COUNTIES NR THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND/CURRITUCK SND AND OCN UNTIL ABT MIDNGT. OTRW...ITS BEEN A
ANOTHER PLEASANT MID SUMMER EVE...AND WILL BE ANOTHER QUIET/RATHER
COMFORTABLE OVRNGT W/ MNLY SKC. FOG DID NOT MATERIALIZE (INLAND)
LAST NGT...WILL KEEP OUT ANY MENTION OVRNGT. L/M60S WELL INLAND
TO L70S AT THE CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY WILL BE MUCH LIKE TODAY AS HIGH PRS DOMINATES. HOWEVER...A
LEE TROF PROGGED IN ADVANCE OF APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY WITH ANTHR WEAK
DISTURBANCE TRACKING NE ALONG THE STALLED BNDRY ACROSS NC. THE
DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND LACK OF INSTAB SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...HOWEVER ENUF MSTR / WND CONVERGENCE
SEEN TO KEEP ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION MENTIONED ACROSS SE VA/NE NC.
H85 TMPS SPRT HIGHS L-M90S XPCT M-U80S AT THE BEACHES. M CLR TO PT
CLDY MON NIGHT WITH ANY CONVECTION DSPTG AFTR SS. LOWS U60S-L70S
XCPT M70S BEACH AREAS.

ERN TROF SHARPENS ENUF TO ALLOW THE APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY TO ENTER THE
FA FROM THE N. BEST MSTR AND INSTAB SPRT FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DVLP PROGGED ACROSS NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE
MAINTAINED. OTW...SLGHT CHC AS BNDRY SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE RGN. STILL
ABOVE NRML WITH H85 TMPS SPRTG HIGHS 90-95...XCPT M-U80S BEACH AREAS
BEFORE ANY CONVECTION. ANY CONVECTION DSPTS AFTR SS. LOWS TUE NIGHT
U60S-M70S.

BNDRY WASHES OUT / DSPTS ACROSS THE REGION WED. STILL ENUF SPRT FOR
ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION. HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES THRU WED TOP OUT ARND 100 DEGREES WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES ACROSS INTERION SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

TSTMS JUST S OF ECG IN THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AT 2330Z WILL
DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING. WIND DIRECTIONS THAT ARE FROM NE
WILL GO AROUND TO SE/S OVERNIGHT. FOG LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW
BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THOSE LOCATIONS THAT GO CALM. BOUNDARY
LAYER DRYNESS WILL INHIBIT FOG AT RIC AND SBY. WINDS TURN TO S/SW
ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...A DAILY CHANCE FOR AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTN WITH SEABREEZES NR THE CST.
WINDS BCM SLY AFTR MIDNITE ~10 KT WITH 1-2 FT WAVES OVER THE BAY AND
2-3 FT SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS. A WEAK TROF LO PRES THEN APPROACHES FM
THE NW MON WITH WINDS SLOWLY INCREASING THRU THE DAY. SCA CONDS WILL
COMMENCE OVER THE BAY AND NRN CSTL WTRS AROUND LATE AFTN MON AS THE
PRES GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE AREA. EXPECT 15-20 KT WINDS OVER
THE BAY THRU ERLY TUE MORNG...WITH 4-5 FT SEAS AND 15-25 KT WINDS
OVER CSTL WTRS N OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT. SEAS SHOULD DROP BLO 5 FT BY
MIDDAY/AFTN TUE. WEAK SFC HI PRES RETURNS TO THE REGION LATE TUE
THRU WED WITH S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MPR




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030058
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
858 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONVERGENCE INVOF LO LVL BNDRY INVOF ALBEMARLE SOUND AND JUST OFF
THE CST OF CURRITUCK COUNTY HAS RESULTED IN SCT TSTMS DEVELOPING
PAST COUPLE HRS. LIMITED MOVEMENT N IS XPCD NEXT COUPLE OF
HRS...WILL HOLD ONTO 20-40% POPS INVOF COUNTIES NR THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND/CURRITUCK SND AND OCN UNTIL ABT MIDNGT. OTRW...ITS BEEN A
ANOTHER PLEASANT MID SUMMER EVE...AND WILL BE ANOTHER QUIET/RATHER
COMFORTABLE OVRNGT W/ MNLY SKC. FOG DID NOT MATERIALIZE (INLAND)
LAST NGT...WILL KEEP OUT ANY MENTION OVRNGT. L/M60S WELL INLAND
TO L70S AT THE CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY WILL BE MUCH LIKE TODAY AS HIGH PRS DOMINATES. HOWEVER...A
LEE TROF PROGGED IN ADVANCE OF APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY WITH ANTHR WEAK
DISTURBANCE TRACKING NE ALONG THE STALLED BNDRY ACROSS NC. THE
DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND LACK OF INSTAB SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...HOWEVER ENUF MSTR / WND CONVERGENCE
SEEN TO KEEP ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION MENTIONED ACROSS SE VA/NE NC.
H85 TMPS SPRT HIGHS L-M90S XPCT M-U80S AT THE BEACHES. M CLR TO PT
CLDY MON NIGHT WITH ANY CONVECTION DSPTG AFTR SS. LOWS U60S-L70S
XCPT M70S BEACH AREAS.

ERN TROF SHARPENS ENUF TO ALLOW THE APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY TO ENTER THE
FA FROM THE N. BEST MSTR AND INSTAB SPRT FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DVLP PROGGED ACROSS NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE
MAINTAINED. OTW...SLGHT CHC AS BNDRY SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE RGN. STILL
ABOVE NRML WITH H85 TMPS SPRTG HIGHS 90-95...XCPT M-U80S BEACH AREAS
BEFORE ANY CONVECTION. ANY CONVECTION DSPTS AFTR SS. LOWS TUE NIGHT
U60S-M70S.

BNDRY WASHES OUT / DSPTS ACROSS THE REGION WED. STILL ENUF SPRT FOR
ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION. HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES THRU WED TOP OUT ARND 100 DEGREES WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES ACROSS INTERION SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

TSTMS JUST S OF ECG IN THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AT 2330Z WILL
DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING. WIND DIRECTIONS THAT ARE FROM NE
WILL GO AROUND TO SE/S OVERNIGHT. FOG LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW
BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THOSE LOCATIONS THAT GO CALM. BOUNDARY
LAYER DRYNESS WILL INHIBIT FOG AT RIC AND SBY. WINDS TURN TO S/SW
ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...A DAILY CHANCE FOR AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTN WITH SEABREEZES NR THE CST.
WINDS BCM SLY AFTR MIDNITE ~10 KT WITH 1-2 FT WAVES OVER THE BAY AND
2-3 FT SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS. A WEAK TROF LO PRES THEN APPROACHES FM
THE NW MON WITH WINDS SLOWLY INCREASING THRU THE DAY. SCA CONDS WILL
COMMENCE OVER THE BAY AND NRN CSTL WTRS AROUND LATE AFTN MON AS THE
PRES GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE AREA. EXPECT 15-20 KT WINDS OVER
THE BAY THRU ERLY TUE MORNG...WITH 4-5 FT SEAS AND 15-25 KT WINDS
OVER CSTL WTRS N OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT. SEAS SHOULD DROP BLO 5 FT BY
MIDDAY/AFTN TUE. WEAK SFC HI PRES RETURNS TO THE REGION LATE TUE
THRU WED WITH S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MPR



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030049
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
849 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONVECTION FM EARLIER THIS AFTN IN SE VA HAS DISSIPATED. POPS AOB
14% FOR REST OF THE EVE/OVRNGT. MOSTLY SKC TO PARTLY CLOUDY AS
SFC HI PRES RMNS OVR THE RGN. LOWS M60S-L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY WILL BE MUCH LIKE TODAY AS HIGH PRS DOMINATES. HOWEVER...A
LEE TROF PROGGED IN ADVANCE OF APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY WITH ANTHR WEAK
DISTURBANCE TRACKING NE ALONG THE STALLED BNDRY ACROSS NC. THE
DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND LACK OF INSTAB SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...HOWEVER ENUF MSTR / WND CONVERGENCE
SEEN TO KEEP ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION MENTIONED ACROSS SE VA/NE NC.
H85 TMPS SPRT HIGHS L-M90S XPCT M-U80S AT THE BEACHES. M CLR TO PT
CLDY MON NIGHT WITH ANY CONVECTION DSPTG AFTR SS. LOWS U60S-L70S
XCPT M70S BEACH AREAS.

ERN TROF SHARPENS ENUF TO ALLOW THE APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY TO ENTER THE
FA FROM THE N. BEST MSTR AND INSTAB SPRT FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DVLP PROGGED ACROSS NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE
MAINTAINED. OTW...SLGHT CHC AS BNDRY SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE RGN. STILL
ABOVE NRML WITH H85 TMPS SPRTG HIGHS 90-95...XCPT M-U80S BEACH AREAS
BEFORE ANY CONVECTION. ANY CONVECTION DSPTS AFTR SS. LOWS TUE NIGHT
U60S-M70S.

BNDRY WASHES OUT / DSPTS ACROSS THE REGION WED. STILL ENUF SPRT FOR
ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION. HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES THRU WED TOP OUT ARND 100 DEGREES WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES ACROSS INTERION SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

TSTMS JUST S OF ECG IN THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AT 2330Z WILL
DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING. WIND DIRECTIONS THAT ARE FROM NE
WILL GO AROUND TO SE/S OVERNIGHT. FOG LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW
BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THOSE LOCATIONS THAT GO CALM. BOUNDARY
LAYER DRYNESS WILL INHIBIT FOG AT RIC AND SBY. WINDS TURN TO S/SW
ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...A DAILY CHANCE FOR AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTN WITH SEABREEZES NR THE CST.
WINDS BCM SLY AFTR MIDNITE ~10 KT WITH 1-2 FT WAVES OVER THE BAY AND
2-3 FT SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS. A WEAK TROF LO PRES THEN APPROACHES FM
THE NW MON WITH WINDS SLOWLY INCREASING THRU THE DAY. SCA CONDS WILL
COMMENCE OVER THE BAY AND NRN CSTL WTRS AROUND LATE AFTN MON AS THE
PRES GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE AREA. EXPECT 15-20 KT WINDS OVER
THE BAY THRU ERLY TUE MORNG...WITH 4-5 FT SEAS AND 15-25 KT WINDS
OVER CSTL WTRS N OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT. SEAS SHOULD DROP BLO 5 FT BY
MIDDAY/AFTN TUE. WEAK SFC HI PRES RETURNS TO THE REGION LATE TUE
THRU WED WITH S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MPR



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030049
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
849 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONVECTION FM EARLIER THIS AFTN IN SE VA HAS DISSIPATED. POPS AOB
14% FOR REST OF THE EVE/OVRNGT. MOSTLY SKC TO PARTLY CLOUDY AS
SFC HI PRES RMNS OVR THE RGN. LOWS M60S-L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY WILL BE MUCH LIKE TODAY AS HIGH PRS DOMINATES. HOWEVER...A
LEE TROF PROGGED IN ADVANCE OF APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY WITH ANTHR WEAK
DISTURBANCE TRACKING NE ALONG THE STALLED BNDRY ACROSS NC. THE
DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND LACK OF INSTAB SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...HOWEVER ENUF MSTR / WND CONVERGENCE
SEEN TO KEEP ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION MENTIONED ACROSS SE VA/NE NC.
H85 TMPS SPRT HIGHS L-M90S XPCT M-U80S AT THE BEACHES. M CLR TO PT
CLDY MON NIGHT WITH ANY CONVECTION DSPTG AFTR SS. LOWS U60S-L70S
XCPT M70S BEACH AREAS.

ERN TROF SHARPENS ENUF TO ALLOW THE APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY TO ENTER THE
FA FROM THE N. BEST MSTR AND INSTAB SPRT FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DVLP PROGGED ACROSS NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE
MAINTAINED. OTW...SLGHT CHC AS BNDRY SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE RGN. STILL
ABOVE NRML WITH H85 TMPS SPRTG HIGHS 90-95...XCPT M-U80S BEACH AREAS
BEFORE ANY CONVECTION. ANY CONVECTION DSPTS AFTR SS. LOWS TUE NIGHT
U60S-M70S.

BNDRY WASHES OUT / DSPTS ACROSS THE REGION WED. STILL ENUF SPRT FOR
ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION. HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES THRU WED TOP OUT ARND 100 DEGREES WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES ACROSS INTERION SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

TSTMS JUST S OF ECG IN THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AT 2330Z WILL
DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING. WIND DIRECTIONS THAT ARE FROM NE
WILL GO AROUND TO SE/S OVERNIGHT. FOG LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW
BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THOSE LOCATIONS THAT GO CALM. BOUNDARY
LAYER DRYNESS WILL INHIBIT FOG AT RIC AND SBY. WINDS TURN TO S/SW
ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...A DAILY CHANCE FOR AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTN WITH SEABREEZES NR THE CST.
WINDS BCM SLY AFTR MIDNITE ~10 KT WITH 1-2 FT WAVES OVER THE BAY AND
2-3 FT SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS. A WEAK TROF LO PRES THEN APPROACHES FM
THE NW MON WITH WINDS SLOWLY INCREASING THRU THE DAY. SCA CONDS WILL
COMMENCE OVER THE BAY AND NRN CSTL WTRS AROUND LATE AFTN MON AS THE
PRES GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE AREA. EXPECT 15-20 KT WINDS OVER
THE BAY THRU ERLY TUE MORNG...WITH 4-5 FT SEAS AND 15-25 KT WINDS
OVER CSTL WTRS N OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT. SEAS SHOULD DROP BLO 5 FT BY
MIDDAY/AFTN TUE. WEAK SFC HI PRES RETURNS TO THE REGION LATE TUE
THRU WED WITH S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MPR




000
FXUS61 KRNK 022346
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
746 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
KEEPING MAINLY DRY WEATHER IN PLACE. A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST
INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT DURING MIDWEEK.
LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM EDT SUNDAY...

HEADING INTO THE EVENING HOURS...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR
WINDS TO BECOME CALM WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER. BY 1000 PM...TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND THE
LOWER 70S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

AS OF 310 PM EDT SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER TO THE
REGION ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. EXPECTED LIGHT WINDS...SCANT CLOUD
COVER...AND LOW DEW POINTS WILL MAKE FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND A REPEAT OF CHILLY TEMPERATURES BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. MOST
GUIDANCE FROM THE 12Z RUN SEEMS TOO WARM BASED ON THE LOWS THAT
OCCURRED UNDER SIMILAR CONDITIONS LAST NIGHT...SO WILL BE USING
MOS GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT WHICH IS NOTABLY COOLER THAN OTHER
SOLUTIONS. EXPECT UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH
LOW/MID 50S WEST AND SOME COOLER READINGS IN THE COLDEST VALLEYS.
ALSO EXPECT SOME VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE NEAR THE RIVERS BY DAYBREAK.

THE REGION WILL BE GETTING SQUEEZED BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON MONDAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND A TROF/FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTHEAST GETS A PUSH BACK IN OUR DIRECTION AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE CAROLINAS. BEST CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WILL BE WITH
BETTER DYNAMICS OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA TO THE NORTH AND TIMING OF FRONT IS
LATE SO SLGT/LOW CHANCE POPS FOR A LATE DAY THUNDERSTORM ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WV SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT. SWLY FLOW EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHER DEWPOINTS TO MOVE IN AND HELP GENERATE SOME
INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT FEATURES
WEAK DYNAMICS...OROGRAPHIC FORCING JUST EAST OF THE RIDGE COMBINED
WITH CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROF/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY MORE SLGT/LOW CHC POPS FOR A THUNDERSTORM TO THE
EAST. THE END RESULT WILL BE DRY EARLY WITH THE CHANCE FOR A LATE
DAY THUNDERSTORM MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WV. IT WILL ALSO BE WARMER AS TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO
THE LOWER 90S EAST WITH GENERALLY MID 80S WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...

LINGERING UPPER TROUGH WELL TO THE NORTH WILL SWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE NW MONDAY NIGHT WITH THIS BOUNDARY BASICALLY
JUMPING TO THE EASTERN LEE TROUGH ON TUESDAY. FRONT LIKELY TO BE
PRECEDED BY A BROKEN BAND OF CONVECTION JUST NW OF THE CWA EARLY MONDAY
EVENING BEFORE LIKELY SPLITTING/WEAKENING UPON CROSSING THE WESTERN
RIDGES INTO DRIER AIR DURING LOSS OF HEATING. HOWEVER WITH GUIDANCE
SHOWING SOME LEFTOVER INSTABILITY NW COUNTIES AND POTENTIAL FOR MOMENTUM
TO CARRY CONVECTION A BIT FARTHER TO THE SE PENDING ORGANIZATION...INCLUDING
SOME LOW CHANCE POPS NW THIRD TUESDAY NIGHT BUT DRY ELSEWHERE.

GUIDANCE SHOWING MUCH OF THE AREA IN A SUBSIDENCE REGION TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT AIDED BY DEEP WESTERLY FLOW AND
LITTLE FOCUS. CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA FAR WEST/SW WITH
THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW AND HIGHER THETA-E...AS WELL AS THE FAR
EASTERN PERIMETER WHERE WILL BE CLOSER TO THE BETTER INSTABILITY NEAR
THE LEE TROUGH. THIS AREA ALSO WHERE MAY BE FAR ENOUGH REMOVED
FROM DOWNSLOPING AND BETTER MIXING IN THE EVENING TO POP A SHOWER
OR TWO SO RUNNING WITH 20ISH POPS IN THESE LOCATIONS. OTRW
PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY BUT QUITE WARM/HOT VIA COMPRESSION TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS MID/UPPER 80S WEST AND LOW/MID 90S EAST.

NEXT RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY
AND ATTEMPT TO LIFT THE BOUNDARY BACK NORTH THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS WARM FRONT AS THE WAVE PASSES TO THE NW. BEST INSTABILITY
AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE OVER THE FAR WEST LATER WEDNESDAY WITH
MORE OVERRUNNING OF THE FRONT POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT PENDING
JUST HOW FAR WEST THIS WAVE ENDS UP TRACKING. LATEST MODELS SUGGEST
COULD BE TOO FAR REMOVED FOR MUCH MORE THAN MID RANGE CHANCE POPS
FAR NORTH-WEST FROM LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LACK
OF DEEP CONVECTION PER ONLY WEAK LIFT/INSTABILITY. HOWEVER FOR NOW
WILL LEAVE IN SOME CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION AND SEE HOW LATER
RUNS EVOLVE GIVEN SUCH UNCERTAINTY. SHOULD AGAIN BE QUITE WARM/MUGGY
WEDNESDAY WITH THE 850 MB BOUNDARY SLIDING BACK NORTH ALLOWING
MORE OF A SW TRAJECTORY WHICH SHOULD AT LEAST HOLD HIGHS A CATEGORY
OR SO BELOW VALUES SEEN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT SUNDAY...

TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS
THE REGION GETS CAUGHT UNDER THE SURFACE-850 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
WITHIN A NEARBY FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHED BACK INTO THE MIDWEST. A COUPLE
OF SHORTWAVES RIDING ALONG THESE FEATURES TO AID CONVECTIVE CHANCES...ESPCLY
NORTH/WEST THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS DECENT LOW PRESSURE PASSES
JUST NORTH...SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS. STRONGER
ENERGY ALOFT DROPPING OVER THE CENTRAL STATES UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN
START TO DIG OUT ANOTHER RATHER STRONG 5H TROUGH TO THE NW FRIDAY...WITH
AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE HELPING TO DRIVE THE NEXT COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION BY FRIDAY EVENING. EARLIER MODELS AGREED ON QUITE
A BIT OF DEEP MOISTURE BEING PULLED NORTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT/WAVE
ON FRIDAY WITH GOOD DYNAMICS AND JET FEATURES ALOFT. THIS WOULD
SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS FRIDAY UNLESS THE FRONT IS
FASTER SIMILAR TO THE LATEST GFS WHICH WOULD TREND THE BEST
COVERAGE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THUS HAVE TRENDED THE
HIGHEST CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
WHILE KEEPING HIGH CHANCES FRIDAY FOR CONSISTENCY AND LINE WITH
THE CURRENT CMC AND EARLIER ECMWF. WILL BE A BIT COOLER BUT STILL
HUMID PER MORE CLOUDS/SHRA WITH HIGHS MOSTLY 80S THURSDAY...
LOWERING TO 70S WEST TO MID 80S EAST FRIDAY.

SIMILAR TO THE LAST WEEK OR TWO...APPEARS ANOTHER SURGE OF MUCH DRIER/COOLER
AIR LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT NEXT WEEKEND AS YET ANOTHER 5H TROUGH
CARVES ITSELF OUT ACROSS THE EAST. GUIDANCE EVEN COOLER ALOFT
WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN PROGGED 850 MB TEMPS AS COOL AS +12C MOUNTAINS
BUT MAY BE TOO COOL THAT FAR OUT. HOWEVER STILL ENOUGH TO DROP
HIGHS BACK IN THE 70S MOUNTAINS AND ONLY LOW/MID 80S OUT EAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS/WEDGES IN FROM THE NORTH. RESIDUAL POPS A BIT
TRICKY TOWARD DAYS 6/7 BUT SHOULD BE DRIER WITH PERHAPS SOME
LEFTOVER UPSLOPE SHOWERS WEST SATURDAY AND ONLY ISOLATED FAR
SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT SUNDAY...

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD AS
A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BE INCREASING THROUGH THE PERIOD ON THE HEELS
OF SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED TO EVOLVE MORE EARNESTLY ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT INTO EASTERN KY...FAR WESTERN WV...BEFORE
DISSIPATING AS THE ACTIVITY ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS
DURING THE EVENING AND INTO A MUCH MORE STABLE AIR MASS IN OUR
REGION. HAVE NOT ADVERTISED ANY PRECIPITATION THIS TAF VALID
PERIOD.

FOG CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL AS AIR MASS IS VERY DRY. HOWEVER...AS IS
OFTEN THE CASE FOR LWB IN THE GREENBRIER VALLEY...RADIATIONAL
COOLING SHOULD SUPPORT FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING AND THUS HAVE ADVERTISED A PERIOD OF 1/4SM FG VV001.
ELSEWHERE...CONFIDENCE IN ANY FOG IS LOW...PERHAPS A PERIOD OF
MVFR BR AND BCB/LYH.

WINDS...MOSTLY CALM OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHWEST MONDAY MID-
MORNING AND INCREASING INTO THE 7-8KT RANGE MOST SITES BY LATE
MORNING. SOME LOW END GUSTS POSSIBLE BLF AND ROA...BUT HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THOSE IN THE TAF JUST YET.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF
VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONT
WILL SET UP IN THE MID ATLANTIC WHICH COULD BRING A FEW SHRA/TSRA
BY TUESDAY...WITH PERHAPS A BIT MORE COVERAGE LATER WEDNESDAY AT
THIS POINT. THUS THE THREAT OF SUB-VFR REMAINS LOW UNTIL AROUND
MIDWEEK...EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL FOG POTENTIAL AT KLWB/KBCB EACH
MORNING BETWEEN 09-13Z.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...DS/MBS
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...MBS/RAB



000
FXUS61 KRNK 022235
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
635 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
KEEPING MAINLY DRY WEATHER IN PLACE. A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST
INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT DURING MIDWEEK.
LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM EDT SUNDAY...

HEADING INTO THE EVENING HOURS...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR
WINDS TO BECOME CALM WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER. BY 1000 PM...TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND THE
LOWER 70S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

AS OF 310 PM EDT SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL QUIET WEATHER TO THE REGION ONCE
AGAIN TONIGHT. EXPECTED LIGHT WINDS...SCANT CLOUD COVER...AND LOW DEW
POINTS WILL MAKE FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND A REPEAT OF CHILLY
TEMPERATURES BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. MOST GUIDANCE FROM THE 12Z RUN SEEMS
TOO WARM BASED ON THE LOWS THAT OCCURRED UNDER SIMILAR CONDITIONS LATS
NIGHT...SO WILL BE USING MOS GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT WHICH IS NOTABLY
COOLER THAN OTHER SOLUTIONS. EXPECT UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE WITH LOW/MID 50S WEST AND SOME COOLER READINGS IN THE
COLDEST VALLEYS. ALSO EXPECT SOME VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE AND BECOME LOCALLY DENSE NEAR THE RIVERS BY DAYBREAK.

THE REGION WILL BE GETTING SQUEEZED BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON MONDAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND A TROF/FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTHEAST GETS A PUSH BACK IN OUR DIRECTION AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE CAROLINAS. BEST CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WILL BE WITH
BETTER DYNAMICS OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA TO THE NORTH AND TIMING OF FRONT IS
LATE SO SLGT/LOW CHANCE POPS FOR A LATE DAY THUNDERSTORM ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WV SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT. SWLY FLOW EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHER DEWPOINTS TO MOVE IN AND HELP GENERATE SOME
INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT FEATURES
WEAK DYNAMICS...OROGRAPHIC FORCING JUST EAST OF THE RIDGE COMBINED
WITH CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROF/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY MORE SLGT/LOW CHC POPS FOR A THUNDERSTORM TO THE
EAST. THE END RESULT WILL BE DRY EARLY WITH THE CHANCE FOR A LATE
DAY THUNDERSTORM MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WV. IT WILL ALSO BE WARMER AS TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO
THE LOWER 90S EAST WITH GENERALLY MID 80S WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...

LINGERING UPPER TROUGH WELL TO THE NORTH WILL SWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE NW MONDAY NIGHT WITH THIS BOUNDARY BASICALLY
JUMPING TO THE EASTERN LEE TROUGH ON TUESDAY. FRONT LIKELY TO BE
PRECEDED BY A BROKEN BAND OF CONVECTION JUST NW OF THE CWA EARLY MONDAY
EVENING BEFORE LIKELY SPLITTING/WEAKENING UPON CROSSING THE WESTERN
RIDGES INTO DRIER AIR DURING LOSS OF HEATING. HOWEVER WITH GUIDANCE
SHOWING SOME LEFTOVER INSTABILITY NW COUNTIES AND POTENTIAL FOR MOMENTUM
TO CARRY CONVECTION A BIT FARTHER TO THE SE PENDING ORGANIZATION...INCLUDING
SOME LOW CHANCE POPS NW THIRD TUESDAY NIGHT BUT DRY ELSEWHERE.

GUIDANCE SHOWING MUCH OF THE AREA IN A SUBSIDENCE REGION TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT AIDED BY DEEP WESTERLY FLOW AND
LITTLE FOCUS. CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA FAR WEST/SW WITH
THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW AND HIGHER THETA-E...AS WELL AS THE FAR
EASTERN PERIMETER WHERE WILL BE CLOSER TO THE BETTER INSTABILITY NEAR
THE LEE TROUGH. THIS ALSO WHERE MAY BE FAR ENOUGH REMOVED FROM DOWNSLOPING
AND BETTER MIXING IN THE EVENING TO POP A SHOWER OR TWO SO RUNNING
WITH 20ISH POPS IN THESE LOCATIONS. OTRW PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY BUT QUITE
WARM/HOT VIA COMPRESSION TUESDAY WITH HIGHS MID/UPPER 80S WEST AND
LOW/MID 90S EAST.

NEXT RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY
AND ATTEMPT TO LIFT THE BOUNDARY BACK NORTH THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS WARM FRONT AS THE WAVE PASSES TO THE NW. BEST INSTABILITY
AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE OVER THE FAR WEST LATER WEDNESDAY WITH
MORE OVERRUNNING OF THE FRONT POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT PENDING
JUST HOW FAR WEST THIS WAVE ENDS UP TRACKING. LATEST MODELS SUGGEST
COULD BE TOO FAR REMOVED FOR MUCH MORE THAN MID RANGE CHANCE POPS
FAR NORTH-WEST FROM LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LACK
OF DEEP CONVECTION PER ONLY WEAK LIFT/INSTABILITY. HOWEVER FOR NOW
WILL LEAVE IN SOME CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION AND SEE HOW LATER
RUNS EVOLVE GIVEN SUCH UNCERTAINTY. SHOULD AGAIN BE QUITE WARM/MUGGY
WEDNESDAY WITH THE 850 MB BOUNDARY SLIDING BACK NORTH ALLOWING
MORE OF A SW TRAJECTORY WHICH SHOULD AT LEAST HOLD HIGHS A CATEGORY
OR SO BELOW VALUES SEEN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT SUNDAY...

TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS
THE REGION GETS CAUGHT UNDER THE SURFACE-850 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
WITHIN A NEARBY FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHED BACK INTO THE MIDWEST. A COUPLE
OF SHORTWAVES RIDING ALONG THESE FEATURES TO AID CONVECTIVE CHANCES...ESPCLY
NORTH/WEST THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS DECENT LOW PRESSURE PASSES
JUST NORTH...SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS. STRONGER
ENERGY ALOFT DROPPING OVER THE CENTRAL STATES UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN
START TO DIG OUT ANOTHER RATHER STRONG 5H TROUGH TO THE NW FRIDAY...WITH
AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE HELPING TO DRIVE THE NEXT COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION BY FRIDAY EVENING. EARLIER MODELS AGREED ON QUITE
A BIT OF DEEP MOISTURE BEING PULLED NORTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT/WAVE
ON FRIDAY WITH GOOD DYNAMICS AND JET FEATURES ALOFT. THIS WOULD
SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS FRIDAY UNLESS THE FRONT IS
FASTER SIMILAR TO THE LATEST GFS WHICH WOULD TREND THE BEST
COVERAGE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THUS HAVE TRENDED THE
HIGHEST CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
WHILE KEEPING HIGH CHANCES FRIDAY FOR CONSISTENCY AND LINE WITH
THE CURRENT CMC AND EARLIER ECMWF. WILL BE A BIT COOLER BUT STILL
HUMID PER MORE CLOUDS/SHRA WITH HIGHS MOSTLY 80S THURSDAY...
LOWERING TO 70S WEST TO MID 80S EAST FRIDAY.

SIMILAR TO THE LAST WEEK OR TWO...APPEARS ANOTHER SURGE OF MUCH DRIER/COOLER
AIR LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT NEXT WEEKEND AS YET ANOTHER 5H TROUGH
CARVES ITSELF OUT ACROSS THE EAST. GUIDANCE EVEN COOLER ALOFT
WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN PROGGED 850 MB TEMPS AS COOL AS +12C MOUNTAINS
BUT MAY BE TOO COOL THAT FAR OUT. HOWEVER STILL ENOUGH TO DROP
HIGHS BACK IN THE 70S MOUNTAINS AND ONLY LOW/MID 80S OUT EAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS/WEDGES IN FROM THE NORTH. RESIDUAL POPS A BIT
TRICKY TOWARD DAYS 6/7 BUT SHOULD BE DRIER WITH PERHAPS SOME
LEFTOVER UPSLOPE SHOWERS WEST SATURDAY AND ONLY ISOLATED FAR
SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT SUNDAY...

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FIRST PORTION OF THE VALID PERIOD...THEN EXPECT SOME
RADIATIONAL FOG/STRATUS TO DEVELOP AFTER DARK. FOG/STRATUS WAS NOT
WIDESPREAD LAST NIGHT AND BELIEVE THE MOST SITES WILL GET BY WITH
A PERIOD OF MVFR TOWARD DAYBREAK...EXCEPT AT KLWB WHERE CONDITIONS
LOOK TO FAVOR TYPICAL LIFR DEVELOPMENT BY ABOUT 08Z. THERE ARE
ALSO SOME INDICATIONS IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS OF AN INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT SO WILL
INTRODUCE SOME SCATTERED MVFR CLOUDS WITH THE TEMPO FOR FOG.

ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF AFTER DAYBREAK TOMORROW FOLLOWED
BY SCT VFR CU. THE AREA WILL THEN BE GETTING SQUEEZED BY AN
APPROACHING FRONT FRONT THE NORTH AND A LOW MOVING UP THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS AND PUSHING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN OUR DIRECTION FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. BELIEVE ANY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE FEATURES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THIS VALID PERIOD SO WILL
KEEP TAFS DRY WITH NO MENTION OF A CIG...THROUGH A VFR BKN CIG IS
POSSIBLE VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT SATURDAY...

MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONT
WILL SET UP IN THE MID ATLANTIC WHICH COULD BRING A FEW SHRA/TSRA
BY TUESDAY...WITH PERHAPS A BIT MORE COVERAGE LATER WEDNESDAY AT
THIS POINT. THUS THE THREAT OF SUB-VFR REMAINS LOW UNTIL AROUND
MIDWEEK...EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL FOG POTENTIAL AT KLWB/KBCB EACH
MORNING BETWEEN 09-13Z.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...DS/MBS
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...MBS/WP



000
FXUS61 KRNK 022235
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
635 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
KEEPING MAINLY DRY WEATHER IN PLACE. A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST
INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT DURING MIDWEEK.
LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM EDT SUNDAY...

HEADING INTO THE EVENING HOURS...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR
WINDS TO BECOME CALM WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER. BY 1000 PM...TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND THE
LOWER 70S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

AS OF 310 PM EDT SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL QUIET WEATHER TO THE REGION ONCE
AGAIN TONIGHT. EXPECTED LIGHT WINDS...SCANT CLOUD COVER...AND LOW DEW
POINTS WILL MAKE FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND A REPEAT OF CHILLY
TEMPERATURES BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. MOST GUIDANCE FROM THE 12Z RUN SEEMS
TOO WARM BASED ON THE LOWS THAT OCCURRED UNDER SIMILAR CONDITIONS LATS
NIGHT...SO WILL BE USING MOS GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT WHICH IS NOTABLY
COOLER THAN OTHER SOLUTIONS. EXPECT UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE WITH LOW/MID 50S WEST AND SOME COOLER READINGS IN THE
COLDEST VALLEYS. ALSO EXPECT SOME VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE AND BECOME LOCALLY DENSE NEAR THE RIVERS BY DAYBREAK.

THE REGION WILL BE GETTING SQUEEZED BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON MONDAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND A TROF/FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTHEAST GETS A PUSH BACK IN OUR DIRECTION AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE CAROLINAS. BEST CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WILL BE WITH
BETTER DYNAMICS OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA TO THE NORTH AND TIMING OF FRONT IS
LATE SO SLGT/LOW CHANCE POPS FOR A LATE DAY THUNDERSTORM ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WV SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT. SWLY FLOW EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHER DEWPOINTS TO MOVE IN AND HELP GENERATE SOME
INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT FEATURES
WEAK DYNAMICS...OROGRAPHIC FORCING JUST EAST OF THE RIDGE COMBINED
WITH CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROF/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY MORE SLGT/LOW CHC POPS FOR A THUNDERSTORM TO THE
EAST. THE END RESULT WILL BE DRY EARLY WITH THE CHANCE FOR A LATE
DAY THUNDERSTORM MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WV. IT WILL ALSO BE WARMER AS TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO
THE LOWER 90S EAST WITH GENERALLY MID 80S WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...

LINGERING UPPER TROUGH WELL TO THE NORTH WILL SWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE NW MONDAY NIGHT WITH THIS BOUNDARY BASICALLY
JUMPING TO THE EASTERN LEE TROUGH ON TUESDAY. FRONT LIKELY TO BE
PRECEDED BY A BROKEN BAND OF CONVECTION JUST NW OF THE CWA EARLY MONDAY
EVENING BEFORE LIKELY SPLITTING/WEAKENING UPON CROSSING THE WESTERN
RIDGES INTO DRIER AIR DURING LOSS OF HEATING. HOWEVER WITH GUIDANCE
SHOWING SOME LEFTOVER INSTABILITY NW COUNTIES AND POTENTIAL FOR MOMENTUM
TO CARRY CONVECTION A BIT FARTHER TO THE SE PENDING ORGANIZATION...INCLUDING
SOME LOW CHANCE POPS NW THIRD TUESDAY NIGHT BUT DRY ELSEWHERE.

GUIDANCE SHOWING MUCH OF THE AREA IN A SUBSIDENCE REGION TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT AIDED BY DEEP WESTERLY FLOW AND
LITTLE FOCUS. CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA FAR WEST/SW WITH
THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW AND HIGHER THETA-E...AS WELL AS THE FAR
EASTERN PERIMETER WHERE WILL BE CLOSER TO THE BETTER INSTABILITY NEAR
THE LEE TROUGH. THIS ALSO WHERE MAY BE FAR ENOUGH REMOVED FROM DOWNSLOPING
AND BETTER MIXING IN THE EVENING TO POP A SHOWER OR TWO SO RUNNING
WITH 20ISH POPS IN THESE LOCATIONS. OTRW PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY BUT QUITE
WARM/HOT VIA COMPRESSION TUESDAY WITH HIGHS MID/UPPER 80S WEST AND
LOW/MID 90S EAST.

NEXT RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY
AND ATTEMPT TO LIFT THE BOUNDARY BACK NORTH THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS WARM FRONT AS THE WAVE PASSES TO THE NW. BEST INSTABILITY
AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE OVER THE FAR WEST LATER WEDNESDAY WITH
MORE OVERRUNNING OF THE FRONT POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT PENDING
JUST HOW FAR WEST THIS WAVE ENDS UP TRACKING. LATEST MODELS SUGGEST
COULD BE TOO FAR REMOVED FOR MUCH MORE THAN MID RANGE CHANCE POPS
FAR NORTH-WEST FROM LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LACK
OF DEEP CONVECTION PER ONLY WEAK LIFT/INSTABILITY. HOWEVER FOR NOW
WILL LEAVE IN SOME CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION AND SEE HOW LATER
RUNS EVOLVE GIVEN SUCH UNCERTAINTY. SHOULD AGAIN BE QUITE WARM/MUGGY
WEDNESDAY WITH THE 850 MB BOUNDARY SLIDING BACK NORTH ALLOWING
MORE OF A SW TRAJECTORY WHICH SHOULD AT LEAST HOLD HIGHS A CATEGORY
OR SO BELOW VALUES SEEN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT SUNDAY...

TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS
THE REGION GETS CAUGHT UNDER THE SURFACE-850 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
WITHIN A NEARBY FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHED BACK INTO THE MIDWEST. A COUPLE
OF SHORTWAVES RIDING ALONG THESE FEATURES TO AID CONVECTIVE CHANCES...ESPCLY
NORTH/WEST THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS DECENT LOW PRESSURE PASSES
JUST NORTH...SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS. STRONGER
ENERGY ALOFT DROPPING OVER THE CENTRAL STATES UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN
START TO DIG OUT ANOTHER RATHER STRONG 5H TROUGH TO THE NW FRIDAY...WITH
AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE HELPING TO DRIVE THE NEXT COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION BY FRIDAY EVENING. EARLIER MODELS AGREED ON QUITE
A BIT OF DEEP MOISTURE BEING PULLED NORTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT/WAVE
ON FRIDAY WITH GOOD DYNAMICS AND JET FEATURES ALOFT. THIS WOULD
SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS FRIDAY UNLESS THE FRONT IS
FASTER SIMILAR TO THE LATEST GFS WHICH WOULD TREND THE BEST
COVERAGE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THUS HAVE TRENDED THE
HIGHEST CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
WHILE KEEPING HIGH CHANCES FRIDAY FOR CONSISTENCY AND LINE WITH
THE CURRENT CMC AND EARLIER ECMWF. WILL BE A BIT COOLER BUT STILL
HUMID PER MORE CLOUDS/SHRA WITH HIGHS MOSTLY 80S THURSDAY...
LOWERING TO 70S WEST TO MID 80S EAST FRIDAY.

SIMILAR TO THE LAST WEEK OR TWO...APPEARS ANOTHER SURGE OF MUCH DRIER/COOLER
AIR LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT NEXT WEEKEND AS YET ANOTHER 5H TROUGH
CARVES ITSELF OUT ACROSS THE EAST. GUIDANCE EVEN COOLER ALOFT
WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN PROGGED 850 MB TEMPS AS COOL AS +12C MOUNTAINS
BUT MAY BE TOO COOL THAT FAR OUT. HOWEVER STILL ENOUGH TO DROP
HIGHS BACK IN THE 70S MOUNTAINS AND ONLY LOW/MID 80S OUT EAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS/WEDGES IN FROM THE NORTH. RESIDUAL POPS A BIT
TRICKY TOWARD DAYS 6/7 BUT SHOULD BE DRIER WITH PERHAPS SOME
LEFTOVER UPSLOPE SHOWERS WEST SATURDAY AND ONLY ISOLATED FAR
SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT SUNDAY...

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FIRST PORTION OF THE VALID PERIOD...THEN EXPECT SOME
RADIATIONAL FOG/STRATUS TO DEVELOP AFTER DARK. FOG/STRATUS WAS NOT
WIDESPREAD LAST NIGHT AND BELIEVE THE MOST SITES WILL GET BY WITH
A PERIOD OF MVFR TOWARD DAYBREAK...EXCEPT AT KLWB WHERE CONDITIONS
LOOK TO FAVOR TYPICAL LIFR DEVELOPMENT BY ABOUT 08Z. THERE ARE
ALSO SOME INDICATIONS IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS OF AN INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT SO WILL
INTRODUCE SOME SCATTERED MVFR CLOUDS WITH THE TEMPO FOR FOG.

ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF AFTER DAYBREAK TOMORROW FOLLOWED
BY SCT VFR CU. THE AREA WILL THEN BE GETTING SQUEEZED BY AN
APPROACHING FRONT FRONT THE NORTH AND A LOW MOVING UP THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS AND PUSHING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN OUR DIRECTION FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. BELIEVE ANY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE FEATURES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THIS VALID PERIOD SO WILL
KEEP TAFS DRY WITH NO MENTION OF A CIG...THROUGH A VFR BKN CIG IS
POSSIBLE VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT SATURDAY...

MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONT
WILL SET UP IN THE MID ATLANTIC WHICH COULD BRING A FEW SHRA/TSRA
BY TUESDAY...WITH PERHAPS A BIT MORE COVERAGE LATER WEDNESDAY AT
THIS POINT. THUS THE THREAT OF SUB-VFR REMAINS LOW UNTIL AROUND
MIDWEEK...EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL FOG POTENTIAL AT KLWB/KBCB EACH
MORNING BETWEEN 09-13Z.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...DS/MBS
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...MBS/WP




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 022109
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
509 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CONVECTION FM EARLIER THIS AFTN IN SE VA HAS DISSIPATED. POPS AOB
14% FOR REST OF THE EVE/OVRNGT. MOSTLY SKC TO PARTLY CLOUDY AS
SFC HI PRES RMNS OVR THE RGN. LOWS M60S-L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY WILL BE MUCH LIKE TODAY AS HIGH PRS DOMINATES. HOWEVER...A
LEE TROF PROGGED IN ADVANCE OF APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY WITH ANTHR WEAK
DISTURBANCE TRACKING NE ALONG THE STALLED BNDRY ACROSS NC. THE
DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND LACK OF INSTAB SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...HOWEVER ENUF MSTR / WND CONVERGENCE
SEEN TO KEEP ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION MENTIONED ACROSS SE VA/NE NC.
H85 TMPS SPRT HIGHS L-M90S XPCT M-U80S AT THE BEACHES. M CLR TO PT
CLDY MON NIGHT WITH ANY CONVECTION DSPTG AFTR SS. LOWS U60S-L70S
XCPT M70S BEACH AREAS.

ERN TROF SHARPENS ENUF TO ALLOW THE APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY TO ENTER THE
FA FROM THE N. BEST MSTR AND INSTAB SPRT FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DVLP PROGGED ACROSS NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE
MAINTAINED. OTW...SLGHT CHC AS BNDRY SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE RGN. STILL
ABOVE NRML WITH H85 TMPS SPRTG HIGHS 90-95...XCPT M-U80S BEACH AREAS
BEFORE ANY CONVECTION. ANY CONVECTION DSPTS AFTR SS. LOWS TUE NIGHT
U60S-M70S.

BNDRY WASHES OUT / DSPTS ACROSS THE REGION WED. STILL ENUF SPRT FOR
ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION. HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES THRU WED TOP OUT ARND 100 DEGREES WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES ACROSS INTERION SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK SFC HI PRES WILL NUDGE IN FM THE W THIS AFTN. MEANWHILE...A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ALNG THE NC CST THIS AFTN INTO MON.
THIS BOUNDARY AND SEA BREEZE INTERACTION COULD PRODUCE ISLTD
SHOWERS OR TSTMS OVR SE VA (KORF) AND NE NC (KECG) THIS AFTN INTO
EARLY THIS EVENG. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS INTO
MON AFTN...WITH JUST SCTD CU/AC/CI AND WINDS TURNING FM THE NE TO
THE SSW.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FM THE NW MON NGT...THEN SLOWLY
DROPS ACRS THE REGION TUE INTO WED MORNG. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE
SML CHCS FOR MAINLY AFTN/EVENG SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTN WITH SEABREEZES NR THE CST.
WINDS BCM SLY AFTR MIDNITE ~10 KT WITH 1-2 FT WAVES OVER THE BAY AND
2-3 FT SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS. A WEAK TROF LO PRES THEN APPROACHES FM
THE NW MON WITH WINDS SLOWLY INCREASING THRU THE DAY. SCA CONDS WILL
COMMENCE OVER THE BAY AND NRN CSTL WTRS AROUND LATE AFTN MON AS THE
PRES GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE AREA. EXPECT 15-20 KT WINDS OVER
THE BAY THRU ERLY TUE MORNG...WITH 4-5 FT SEAS AND 15-25 KT WINDS
OVER CSTL WTRS N OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT. SEAS SHOULD DROP BLO 5 FT BY
MIDDAY/AFTN TUE. WEAK SFC HI PRES RETURNS TO THE REGION LATE TUE
THRU WED WITH S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MPR



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 022109
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
509 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CONVECTION FM EARLIER THIS AFTN IN SE VA HAS DISSIPATED. POPS AOB
14% FOR REST OF THE EVE/OVRNGT. MOSTLY SKC TO PARTLY CLOUDY AS
SFC HI PRES RMNS OVR THE RGN. LOWS M60S-L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY WILL BE MUCH LIKE TODAY AS HIGH PRS DOMINATES. HOWEVER...A
LEE TROF PROGGED IN ADVANCE OF APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY WITH ANTHR WEAK
DISTURBANCE TRACKING NE ALONG THE STALLED BNDRY ACROSS NC. THE
DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND LACK OF INSTAB SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...HOWEVER ENUF MSTR / WND CONVERGENCE
SEEN TO KEEP ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION MENTIONED ACROSS SE VA/NE NC.
H85 TMPS SPRT HIGHS L-M90S XPCT M-U80S AT THE BEACHES. M CLR TO PT
CLDY MON NIGHT WITH ANY CONVECTION DSPTG AFTR SS. LOWS U60S-L70S
XCPT M70S BEACH AREAS.

ERN TROF SHARPENS ENUF TO ALLOW THE APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY TO ENTER THE
FA FROM THE N. BEST MSTR AND INSTAB SPRT FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DVLP PROGGED ACROSS NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE
MAINTAINED. OTW...SLGHT CHC AS BNDRY SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE RGN. STILL
ABOVE NRML WITH H85 TMPS SPRTG HIGHS 90-95...XCPT M-U80S BEACH AREAS
BEFORE ANY CONVECTION. ANY CONVECTION DSPTS AFTR SS. LOWS TUE NIGHT
U60S-M70S.

BNDRY WASHES OUT / DSPTS ACROSS THE REGION WED. STILL ENUF SPRT FOR
ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION. HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES THRU WED TOP OUT ARND 100 DEGREES WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES ACROSS INTERION SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK SFC HI PRES WILL NUDGE IN FM THE W THIS AFTN. MEANWHILE...A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ALNG THE NC CST THIS AFTN INTO MON.
THIS BOUNDARY AND SEA BREEZE INTERACTION COULD PRODUCE ISLTD
SHOWERS OR TSTMS OVR SE VA (KORF) AND NE NC (KECG) THIS AFTN INTO
EARLY THIS EVENG. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS INTO
MON AFTN...WITH JUST SCTD CU/AC/CI AND WINDS TURNING FM THE NE TO
THE SSW.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FM THE NW MON NGT...THEN SLOWLY
DROPS ACRS THE REGION TUE INTO WED MORNG. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE
SML CHCS FOR MAINLY AFTN/EVENG SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTN WITH SEABREEZES NR THE CST.
WINDS BCM SLY AFTR MIDNITE ~10 KT WITH 1-2 FT WAVES OVER THE BAY AND
2-3 FT SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS. A WEAK TROF LO PRES THEN APPROACHES FM
THE NW MON WITH WINDS SLOWLY INCREASING THRU THE DAY. SCA CONDS WILL
COMMENCE OVER THE BAY AND NRN CSTL WTRS AROUND LATE AFTN MON AS THE
PRES GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE AREA. EXPECT 15-20 KT WINDS OVER
THE BAY THRU ERLY TUE MORNG...WITH 4-5 FT SEAS AND 15-25 KT WINDS
OVER CSTL WTRS N OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT. SEAS SHOULD DROP BLO 5 FT BY
MIDDAY/AFTN TUE. WEAK SFC HI PRES RETURNS TO THE REGION LATE TUE
THRU WED WITH S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MPR




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 022109
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
509 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CONVECTION FM EARLIER THIS AFTN IN SE VA HAS DISSIPATED. POPS AOB
14% FOR REST OF THE EVE/OVRNGT. MOSTLY SKC TO PARTLY CLOUDY AS
SFC HI PRES RMNS OVR THE RGN. LOWS M60S-L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY WILL BE MUCH LIKE TODAY AS HIGH PRS DOMINATES. HOWEVER...A
LEE TROF PROGGED IN ADVANCE OF APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY WITH ANTHR WEAK
DISTURBANCE TRACKING NE ALONG THE STALLED BNDRY ACROSS NC. THE
DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND LACK OF INSTAB SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...HOWEVER ENUF MSTR / WND CONVERGENCE
SEEN TO KEEP ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION MENTIONED ACROSS SE VA/NE NC.
H85 TMPS SPRT HIGHS L-M90S XPCT M-U80S AT THE BEACHES. M CLR TO PT
CLDY MON NIGHT WITH ANY CONVECTION DSPTG AFTR SS. LOWS U60S-L70S
XCPT M70S BEACH AREAS.

ERN TROF SHARPENS ENUF TO ALLOW THE APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY TO ENTER THE
FA FROM THE N. BEST MSTR AND INSTAB SPRT FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DVLP PROGGED ACROSS NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE
MAINTAINED. OTW...SLGHT CHC AS BNDRY SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE RGN. STILL
ABOVE NRML WITH H85 TMPS SPRTG HIGHS 90-95...XCPT M-U80S BEACH AREAS
BEFORE ANY CONVECTION. ANY CONVECTION DSPTS AFTR SS. LOWS TUE NIGHT
U60S-M70S.

BNDRY WASHES OUT / DSPTS ACROSS THE REGION WED. STILL ENUF SPRT FOR
ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION. HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES THRU WED TOP OUT ARND 100 DEGREES WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES ACROSS INTERION SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK SFC HI PRES WILL NUDGE IN FM THE W THIS AFTN. MEANWHILE...A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ALNG THE NC CST THIS AFTN INTO MON.
THIS BOUNDARY AND SEA BREEZE INTERACTION COULD PRODUCE ISLTD
SHOWERS OR TSTMS OVR SE VA (KORF) AND NE NC (KECG) THIS AFTN INTO
EARLY THIS EVENG. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS INTO
MON AFTN...WITH JUST SCTD CU/AC/CI AND WINDS TURNING FM THE NE TO
THE SSW.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FM THE NW MON NGT...THEN SLOWLY
DROPS ACRS THE REGION TUE INTO WED MORNG. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE
SML CHCS FOR MAINLY AFTN/EVENG SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTN WITH SEABREEZES NR THE CST.
WINDS BCM SLY AFTR MIDNITE ~10 KT WITH 1-2 FT WAVES OVER THE BAY AND
2-3 FT SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS. A WEAK TROF LO PRES THEN APPROACHES FM
THE NW MON WITH WINDS SLOWLY INCREASING THRU THE DAY. SCA CONDS WILL
COMMENCE OVER THE BAY AND NRN CSTL WTRS AROUND LATE AFTN MON AS THE
PRES GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE AREA. EXPECT 15-20 KT WINDS OVER
THE BAY THRU ERLY TUE MORNG...WITH 4-5 FT SEAS AND 15-25 KT WINDS
OVER CSTL WTRS N OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT. SEAS SHOULD DROP BLO 5 FT BY
MIDDAY/AFTN TUE. WEAK SFC HI PRES RETURNS TO THE REGION LATE TUE
THRU WED WITH S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MPR



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 022109
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
509 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CONVECTION FM EARLIER THIS AFTN IN SE VA HAS DISSIPATED. POPS AOB
14% FOR REST OF THE EVE/OVRNGT. MOSTLY SKC TO PARTLY CLOUDY AS
SFC HI PRES RMNS OVR THE RGN. LOWS M60S-L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY WILL BE MUCH LIKE TODAY AS HIGH PRS DOMINATES. HOWEVER...A
LEE TROF PROGGED IN ADVANCE OF APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY WITH ANTHR WEAK
DISTURBANCE TRACKING NE ALONG THE STALLED BNDRY ACROSS NC. THE
DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND LACK OF INSTAB SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...HOWEVER ENUF MSTR / WND CONVERGENCE
SEEN TO KEEP ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION MENTIONED ACROSS SE VA/NE NC.
H85 TMPS SPRT HIGHS L-M90S XPCT M-U80S AT THE BEACHES. M CLR TO PT
CLDY MON NIGHT WITH ANY CONVECTION DSPTG AFTR SS. LOWS U60S-L70S
XCPT M70S BEACH AREAS.

ERN TROF SHARPENS ENUF TO ALLOW THE APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY TO ENTER THE
FA FROM THE N. BEST MSTR AND INSTAB SPRT FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DVLP PROGGED ACROSS NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE
MAINTAINED. OTW...SLGHT CHC AS BNDRY SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE RGN. STILL
ABOVE NRML WITH H85 TMPS SPRTG HIGHS 90-95...XCPT M-U80S BEACH AREAS
BEFORE ANY CONVECTION. ANY CONVECTION DSPTS AFTR SS. LOWS TUE NIGHT
U60S-M70S.

BNDRY WASHES OUT / DSPTS ACROSS THE REGION WED. STILL ENUF SPRT FOR
ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION. HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES THRU WED TOP OUT ARND 100 DEGREES WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES ACROSS INTERION SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK SFC HI PRES WILL NUDGE IN FM THE W THIS AFTN. MEANWHILE...A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ALNG THE NC CST THIS AFTN INTO MON.
THIS BOUNDARY AND SEA BREEZE INTERACTION COULD PRODUCE ISLTD
SHOWERS OR TSTMS OVR SE VA (KORF) AND NE NC (KECG) THIS AFTN INTO
EARLY THIS EVENG. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS INTO
MON AFTN...WITH JUST SCTD CU/AC/CI AND WINDS TURNING FM THE NE TO
THE SSW.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FM THE NW MON NGT...THEN SLOWLY
DROPS ACRS THE REGION TUE INTO WED MORNG. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE
SML CHCS FOR MAINLY AFTN/EVENG SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTN WITH SEABREEZES NR THE CST.
WINDS BCM SLY AFTR MIDNITE ~10 KT WITH 1-2 FT WAVES OVER THE BAY AND
2-3 FT SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS. A WEAK TROF LO PRES THEN APPROACHES FM
THE NW MON WITH WINDS SLOWLY INCREASING THRU THE DAY. SCA CONDS WILL
COMMENCE OVER THE BAY AND NRN CSTL WTRS AROUND LATE AFTN MON AS THE
PRES GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE AREA. EXPECT 15-20 KT WINDS OVER
THE BAY THRU ERLY TUE MORNG...WITH 4-5 FT SEAS AND 15-25 KT WINDS
OVER CSTL WTRS N OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT. SEAS SHOULD DROP BLO 5 FT BY
MIDDAY/AFTN TUE. WEAK SFC HI PRES RETURNS TO THE REGION LATE TUE
THRU WED WITH S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MPR




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021952
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
352 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
WILL KEEP LOW CHC FOR SEA BREEZE CONVECTION GOING ACROSS SERN VA
AND NE NC THRU 00Z. OTW...MSTLY CLR TO PT CLDY AS HIGH PRS REMAINS
OVR THE RGN. LOWS M60S-L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY WILL BE MUCH LIKE TODAY AS HIGH PRS DOMINATES. HOWEVER...A
LEE TROF PROGGED IN ADVANCE OF APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY WITH ANTHR WEAK
DISTURBANCE TRACKING NE ALONG THE STALLED BNDRY ACROSS NC. THE
DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND LACK OF INSTAB SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...HOWEVER ENUF MSTR / WND CONVERGENCE
SEEN TO KEEP ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION MENTIONED ACROSS SE VA/NE NC.
H85 TMPS SPRT HIGHS L-M90S XPCT M-U80S AT THE BEACHES. M CLR TO PT
CLDY MON NIGHT WITH ANY CONVECTION DSPTG AFTR SS. LOWS U60S-L70S
XCPT M70S BEACH AREAS.

ERN TROF SHARPENS ENUF TO ALLOW THE APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY TO ENTER THE
FA FROM THE N. BEST MSTR AND INSTAB SPRT FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DVLP PROGGED ACROSS NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE
MAINTAINED. OTW...SLGHT CHC AS BNDRY SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE RGN. STILL
ABOVE NRML WITH H85 TMPS SPRTG HIGHS 90-95...XCPT M-U80S BEACH AREAS
BEFORE ANY CONVECTION. ANY CONVECTION DSPTS AFTR SS. LOWS TUE NIGHT
U60S-M70S.

BNDRY WASHES OUT / DSPTS ACROSS THE REGION WED. STILL ENUF SPRT FOR
ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION. HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES THRU WED TOP OUT ARND 100 DEGREES WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES ACROSS INTERION SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK SFC HI PRES WILL NUDGE IN FM THE W THIS AFTN. MEANWHILE...A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ALNG THE NC CST THIS AFTN INTO MON.
THIS BOUNDARY AND SEA BREEZE INTERACTION COULD PRODUCE ISLTD
SHOWERS OR TSTMS OVR SE VA (KORF) AND NE NC (KECG) THIS AFTN INTO
EARLY THIS EVENG. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS INTO
MON AFTN...WITH JUST SCTD CU/AC/CI AND WINDS TURNING FM THE NE TO
THE SSW.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FM THE NW MON NGT...THEN SLOWLY
DROPS ACRS THE REGION TUE INTO WED MORNG. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE
SML CHCS FOR MAINLY AFTN/EVENG SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTN WITH SEABREEZES NR THE CST.
WINDS BCM SLY AFTR MIDNITE ~10 KT WITH 1-2 FT WAVES OVER THE BAY AND
2-3 FT SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS. A WEAK TROF LO PRES THEN APPROACHES FM
THE NW MON WITH WINDS SLOWLY INCREASING THRU THE DAY. SCA CONDS WILL
COMMENCE OVER THE BAY AND NRN CSTL WTRS AROUND LATE AFTN MON AS THE
PRES GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE AREA. EXPECT 15-20 KT WINDS OVER
THE BAY THRU ERLY TUE MORNG...WITH 4-5 FT SEAS AND 15-25 KT WINDS
OVER CSTL WTRS N OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT. SEAS SHOULD DROP BLO 5 FT BY
MIDDAY/AFTN TUE. WEAK SFC HI PRES RETURNS TO THE REGION LATE TUE
THRU WED WITH S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE..MAS



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021952
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
352 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
WILL KEEP LOW CHC FOR SEA BREEZE CONVECTION GOING ACROSS SERN VA
AND NE NC THRU 00Z. OTW...MSTLY CLR TO PT CLDY AS HIGH PRS REMAINS
OVR THE RGN. LOWS M60S-L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY WILL BE MUCH LIKE TODAY AS HIGH PRS DOMINATES. HOWEVER...A
LEE TROF PROGGED IN ADVANCE OF APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY WITH ANTHR WEAK
DISTURBANCE TRACKING NE ALONG THE STALLED BNDRY ACROSS NC. THE
DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND LACK OF INSTAB SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...HOWEVER ENUF MSTR / WND CONVERGENCE
SEEN TO KEEP ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION MENTIONED ACROSS SE VA/NE NC.
H85 TMPS SPRT HIGHS L-M90S XPCT M-U80S AT THE BEACHES. M CLR TO PT
CLDY MON NIGHT WITH ANY CONVECTION DSPTG AFTR SS. LOWS U60S-L70S
XCPT M70S BEACH AREAS.

ERN TROF SHARPENS ENUF TO ALLOW THE APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY TO ENTER THE
FA FROM THE N. BEST MSTR AND INSTAB SPRT FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DVLP PROGGED ACROSS NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE
MAINTAINED. OTW...SLGHT CHC AS BNDRY SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE RGN. STILL
ABOVE NRML WITH H85 TMPS SPRTG HIGHS 90-95...XCPT M-U80S BEACH AREAS
BEFORE ANY CONVECTION. ANY CONVECTION DSPTS AFTR SS. LOWS TUE NIGHT
U60S-M70S.

BNDRY WASHES OUT / DSPTS ACROSS THE REGION WED. STILL ENUF SPRT FOR
ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION. HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES THRU WED TOP OUT ARND 100 DEGREES WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES ACROSS INTERION SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK SFC HI PRES WILL NUDGE IN FM THE W THIS AFTN. MEANWHILE...A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ALNG THE NC CST THIS AFTN INTO MON.
THIS BOUNDARY AND SEA BREEZE INTERACTION COULD PRODUCE ISLTD
SHOWERS OR TSTMS OVR SE VA (KORF) AND NE NC (KECG) THIS AFTN INTO
EARLY THIS EVENG. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS INTO
MON AFTN...WITH JUST SCTD CU/AC/CI AND WINDS TURNING FM THE NE TO
THE SSW.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FM THE NW MON NGT...THEN SLOWLY
DROPS ACRS THE REGION TUE INTO WED MORNG. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE
SML CHCS FOR MAINLY AFTN/EVENG SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTN WITH SEABREEZES NR THE CST.
WINDS BCM SLY AFTR MIDNITE ~10 KT WITH 1-2 FT WAVES OVER THE BAY AND
2-3 FT SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS. A WEAK TROF LO PRES THEN APPROACHES FM
THE NW MON WITH WINDS SLOWLY INCREASING THRU THE DAY. SCA CONDS WILL
COMMENCE OVER THE BAY AND NRN CSTL WTRS AROUND LATE AFTN MON AS THE
PRES GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE AREA. EXPECT 15-20 KT WINDS OVER
THE BAY THRU ERLY TUE MORNG...WITH 4-5 FT SEAS AND 15-25 KT WINDS
OVER CSTL WTRS N OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT. SEAS SHOULD DROP BLO 5 FT BY
MIDDAY/AFTN TUE. WEAK SFC HI PRES RETURNS TO THE REGION LATE TUE
THRU WED WITH S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE..MAS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 021924
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
324 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
KEEPING MAINLY DRY WEATHER IN PLACE. A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST
INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT DURING MIDWEEK.
LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL QUIET WEATHER TO THE REGION ONCE
AGAIN TONIGHT. EXPECTED LIGHT WINDS...SCANT CLOUD COVER...AND LOW DEW
POINTS WILL MAKE FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND A REPEAT OF CHILLY
TEMPERATURES BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. MOST GUIDANCE FROM THE 12Z RUN SEEMS
TOO WARM BASED ON THE LOWS THAT OCCURRED UNDER SIMILAR CONDITIONS LATS
NIGHT...SO WILL BE USING MOS GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT WHICH IS NOTABLY
COOLER THAN OTHER SOLUTIONS. EXPECT UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE WITH LOW/MID 50S WEST AND SOME COOLER READINGS IN THE
COLDEST VALLEYS. ALSO EXPECT SOME VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE AND BECOME LOCALLY DENSE NEAR THE RIVERS BY DAYBREAK.

THE REGION WILL BE GETTING SQUEEZED BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON MONDAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND A TROF/FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTHEAST GETS A PUSH BACK IN OUR DIRECTION AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE CAROLINAS. BEST CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WILL BE WITH
BETTER DYNAMICS OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA TO THE NORTH AND TIMING OF FRONT IS
LATE SO SLGT/LOW CHANCE POPS FOR A LATE DAY THUNDERSTORM ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WV SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT. SWLY FLOW EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHER DEWPOINTS TO MOVE IN AND HELP GENERATE SOME
INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT FEATURES
WEAK DYNAMICS...OROGRAPHIC FORCING JUST EAST OF THE RIDGE COMBINED
WITH CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROF/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY MORE SLGT/LOW CHC POPS FOR A THUNDERSTORM TO THE
EAST. THE END RESULT WILL BE DRY EARLY WITH THE CHANCE FOR A LATE
DAY THUNDERSTORM MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WV. IT WILL ALSO BE WARMER AS TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO
THE LOWER 90S EAST WITH GENERALLY MID 80S WEST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...

LINGERING UPPER TROUGH WELL TO THE NORTH WILL SWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE NW MONDAY NIGHT WITH THIS BOUNDARY BASICALLY
JUMPING TO THE EASTERN LEE TROUGH ON TUESDAY. FRONT LIKELY TO BE
PRECEDED BY A BROKEN BAND OF CONVECTION JUST NW OF THE CWA EARLY MONDAY
EVENING BEFORE LIKELY SPLITTING/WEAKENING UPON CROSSING THE WESTERN
RIDGES INTO DRIER AIR DURING LOSS OF HEATING. HOWEVER WITH GUIDANCE
SHOWING SOME LEFTOVER INSTABILITY NW COUNTIES AND POTENTIAL FOR MOMENTUM
TO CARRY CONVECTION A BIT FARTHER TO THE SE PENDING ORGANIZATION...INCLUDING
SOME LOW CHANCE POPS NW THIRD TUESDAY NIGHT BUT DRY ELSEWHERE.

GUIDANCE SHOWING MUCH OF THE AREA IN A SUBSIDENCE REGION TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT AIDED BY DEEP WESTERLY FLOW AND
LITTLE FOCUS. CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA FAR WEST/SW WITH
THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW AND HIGHER THETA-E...AS WELL AS THE FAR
EASTERN PERIMETER WHERE WILL BE CLOSER TO THE BETTER INSTABILITY NEAR
THE LEE TROUGH. THIS ALSO WHERE MAY BE FAR ENOUGH REMOVED FROM DOWNSLOPING
AND BETTER MIXING IN THE EVENING TO POP A SHOWER OR TWO SO RUNNING
WITH 20ISH POPS IN THESE LOCATIONS. OTRW PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY BUT QUITE
WARM/HOT VIA COMPRESSION TUESDAY WITH HIGHS MID/UPPER 80S WEST AND
LOW/MID 90S EAST.

NEXT RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY
AND ATTEMPT TO LIFT THE BOUNDARY BACK NORTH THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS WARM FRONT AS THE WAVE PASSES TO THE NW. BEST INSTABILITY
AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE OVER THE FAR WEST LATER WEDNESDAY WITH
MORE OVERRUNNING OF THE FRONT POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT PENDING
JUST HOW FAR WEST THIS WAVE ENDS UP TRACKING. LATEST MODELS SUGGEST
COULD BE TOO FAR REMOVED FOR MUCH MORE THAN MID RANGE CHANCE POPS
FAR NORTH-WEST FROM LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LACK
OF DEEP CONVECTION PER ONLY WEAK LIFT/INSTABILITY. HOWEVER FOR NOW
WILL LEAVE IN SOME CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION AND SEE HOW LATER
RUNS EVOLVE GIVEN SUCH UNCERTAINTY. SHOULD AGAIN BE QUITE WARM/MUGGY
WEDNESDAY WITH THE 850 MB BOUNDARY SLIDING BACK NORTH ALLOWING
MORE OF A SW TRAJECTORY WHICH SHOULD AT LEAST HOLD HIGHS A CATEGORY
OR SO BELOW VALUES SEEN ON TUESDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT SUNDAY...

TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS
THE REGION GETS CAUGHT UNDER THE SURFACE-850 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
WITHIN A NEARBY FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHED BACK INTO THE MIDWEST. A COUPLE
OF SHORTWAVES RIDING ALONG THESE FEATURES TO AID CONVECTIVE CHANCES...ESPCLY
NORTH/WEST THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS DECENT LOW PRESSURE PASSES
JUST NORTH...SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS. STRONGER
ENERGY ALOFT DROPPING OVER THE CENTRAL STATES UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN
START TO DIG OUT ANOTHER RATHER STRONG 5H TROUGH TO THE NW FRIDAY...WITH
AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE HELPING TO DRIVE THE NEXT COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION BY FRIDAY EVENING. EARLIER MODELS AGREED ON QUITE
A BIT OF DEEP MOISTURE BEING PULLED NORTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT/WAVE
ON FRIDAY WITH GOOD DYNAMICS AND JET FEATURES ALOFT. THIS WOULD
SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS FRIDAY UNLESS THE FRONT IS
FASTER SIMILAR TO THE LATEST GFS WHICH WOULD TREND THE BEST
COVERAGE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THUS HAVE TRENDED THE
HIGHEST CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
WHILE KEEPING HIGH CHANCES FRIDAY FOR CONSISTENCY AND LINE WITH
THE CURRENT CMC AND EARLIER ECMWF. WILL BE A BIT COOLER BUT STILL
HUMID PER MORE CLOUDS/SHRA WITH HIGHS MOSTLY 80S THURSDAY...
LOWERING TO 70S WEST TO MID 80S EAST FRIDAY.

SIMILAR TO THE LAST WEEK OR TWO...APPEARS ANOTHER SURGE OF MUCH DRIER/COOLER
AIR LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT NEXT WEEKEND AS YET ANOTHER 5H TROUGH
CARVES ITSELF OUT ACROSS THE EAST. GUIDANCE EVEN COOLER ALOFT
WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN PROGGED 850 MB TEMPS AS COOL AS +12C MOUNTAINS
BUT MAY BE TOO COOL THAT FAR OUT. HOWEVER STILL ENOUGH TO DROP
HIGHS BACK IN THE 70S MOUNTAINS AND ONLY LOW/MID 80S OUT EAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS/WEDGES IN FROM THE NORTH. RESIDUAL POPS A BIT
TRICKY TOWARD DAYS 6/7 BUT SHOULD BE DRIER WITH PERHAPS SOME
LEFTOVER UPSLOPE SHOWERS WEST SATURDAY AND ONLY ISOLATED FAR
SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT SUNDAY...

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FIRST PORTION OF THE VALID PERIOD...THEN EXPECT SOME
RADIATIONAL FOG/STRATUS TO DEVELOP AFTER DARK. FOG/STRATUS WAS NOT
WIDESPREAD LAST NIGHT AND BELIEVE THE MOST SITES WILL GET BY WITH
A PERIOD OF MVFR TOWARD DAYBREAK...EXCEPT AT KLWB WHERE CONDITIONS
LOOK TO FAVOR TYPICAL LIFR DEVELOPMENT BY ABOUT 08Z. THERE ARE
ALSO SOME INDICATIONS IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS OF AN INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT SO WILL
INTRODUCE SOME SCATTERED MVFR CLOUDS WITH THE TEMPO FOR FOG.

ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF AFTER DAYBREAK TOMORROW FOLLOWED
BY SCT VFR CU. THE AREA WILL THEN BE GETTING SQUEEZED BY AN
APPROACHING FRONT FRONT THE NORTH AND A LOW MOVING UP THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS AND PUSHING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN OUR DIRECTION FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. BELIEVE ANY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE FEATURES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THIS VALID PERIOD SO WILL
KEEP TAFS DRY WITH NO MENTION OF A CIG...THROUGH A VFR BKN CIG IS
POSSIBLE VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT SATURDAY...

MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONT
WILL SET UP IN THE MID ATLANTIC WHICH COULD BRING A FEW SHRA/TSRA
BY TUESDAY...WITH PERHAPS A BIT MORE COVERAGE LATER WEDNESDAY AT
THIS POINT. THUS THE THREAT OF SUB-VFR REMAINS LOW UNTIL AROUND
MIDWEEK...EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL FOG POTENTIAL AT KLWB/KBCB EACH
MORNING BETWEEN 09-13Z.
&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...MBS/WP



000
FXUS61 KRNK 021924
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
324 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
KEEPING MAINLY DRY WEATHER IN PLACE. A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST
INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT DURING MIDWEEK.
LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL QUIET WEATHER TO THE REGION ONCE
AGAIN TONIGHT. EXPECTED LIGHT WINDS...SCANT CLOUD COVER...AND LOW DEW
POINTS WILL MAKE FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND A REPEAT OF CHILLY
TEMPERATURES BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. MOST GUIDANCE FROM THE 12Z RUN SEEMS
TOO WARM BASED ON THE LOWS THAT OCCURRED UNDER SIMILAR CONDITIONS LATS
NIGHT...SO WILL BE USING MOS GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT WHICH IS NOTABLY
COOLER THAN OTHER SOLUTIONS. EXPECT UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE WITH LOW/MID 50S WEST AND SOME COOLER READINGS IN THE
COLDEST VALLEYS. ALSO EXPECT SOME VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE AND BECOME LOCALLY DENSE NEAR THE RIVERS BY DAYBREAK.

THE REGION WILL BE GETTING SQUEEZED BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON MONDAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND A TROF/FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTHEAST GETS A PUSH BACK IN OUR DIRECTION AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE CAROLINAS. BEST CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WILL BE WITH
BETTER DYNAMICS OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA TO THE NORTH AND TIMING OF FRONT IS
LATE SO SLGT/LOW CHANCE POPS FOR A LATE DAY THUNDERSTORM ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WV SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT. SWLY FLOW EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHER DEWPOINTS TO MOVE IN AND HELP GENERATE SOME
INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT FEATURES
WEAK DYNAMICS...OROGRAPHIC FORCING JUST EAST OF THE RIDGE COMBINED
WITH CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROF/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY MORE SLGT/LOW CHC POPS FOR A THUNDERSTORM TO THE
EAST. THE END RESULT WILL BE DRY EARLY WITH THE CHANCE FOR A LATE
DAY THUNDERSTORM MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WV. IT WILL ALSO BE WARMER AS TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO
THE LOWER 90S EAST WITH GENERALLY MID 80S WEST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...

LINGERING UPPER TROUGH WELL TO THE NORTH WILL SWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE NW MONDAY NIGHT WITH THIS BOUNDARY BASICALLY
JUMPING TO THE EASTERN LEE TROUGH ON TUESDAY. FRONT LIKELY TO BE
PRECEDED BY A BROKEN BAND OF CONVECTION JUST NW OF THE CWA EARLY MONDAY
EVENING BEFORE LIKELY SPLITTING/WEAKENING UPON CROSSING THE WESTERN
RIDGES INTO DRIER AIR DURING LOSS OF HEATING. HOWEVER WITH GUIDANCE
SHOWING SOME LEFTOVER INSTABILITY NW COUNTIES AND POTENTIAL FOR MOMENTUM
TO CARRY CONVECTION A BIT FARTHER TO THE SE PENDING ORGANIZATION...INCLUDING
SOME LOW CHANCE POPS NW THIRD TUESDAY NIGHT BUT DRY ELSEWHERE.

GUIDANCE SHOWING MUCH OF THE AREA IN A SUBSIDENCE REGION TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT AIDED BY DEEP WESTERLY FLOW AND
LITTLE FOCUS. CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA FAR WEST/SW WITH
THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW AND HIGHER THETA-E...AS WELL AS THE FAR
EASTERN PERIMETER WHERE WILL BE CLOSER TO THE BETTER INSTABILITY NEAR
THE LEE TROUGH. THIS ALSO WHERE MAY BE FAR ENOUGH REMOVED FROM DOWNSLOPING
AND BETTER MIXING IN THE EVENING TO POP A SHOWER OR TWO SO RUNNING
WITH 20ISH POPS IN THESE LOCATIONS. OTRW PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY BUT QUITE
WARM/HOT VIA COMPRESSION TUESDAY WITH HIGHS MID/UPPER 80S WEST AND
LOW/MID 90S EAST.

NEXT RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY
AND ATTEMPT TO LIFT THE BOUNDARY BACK NORTH THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS WARM FRONT AS THE WAVE PASSES TO THE NW. BEST INSTABILITY
AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE OVER THE FAR WEST LATER WEDNESDAY WITH
MORE OVERRUNNING OF THE FRONT POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT PENDING
JUST HOW FAR WEST THIS WAVE ENDS UP TRACKING. LATEST MODELS SUGGEST
COULD BE TOO FAR REMOVED FOR MUCH MORE THAN MID RANGE CHANCE POPS
FAR NORTH-WEST FROM LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LACK
OF DEEP CONVECTION PER ONLY WEAK LIFT/INSTABILITY. HOWEVER FOR NOW
WILL LEAVE IN SOME CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION AND SEE HOW LATER
RUNS EVOLVE GIVEN SUCH UNCERTAINTY. SHOULD AGAIN BE QUITE WARM/MUGGY
WEDNESDAY WITH THE 850 MB BOUNDARY SLIDING BACK NORTH ALLOWING
MORE OF A SW TRAJECTORY WHICH SHOULD AT LEAST HOLD HIGHS A CATEGORY
OR SO BELOW VALUES SEEN ON TUESDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT SUNDAY...

TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS
THE REGION GETS CAUGHT UNDER THE SURFACE-850 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
WITHIN A NEARBY FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHED BACK INTO THE MIDWEST. A COUPLE
OF SHORTWAVES RIDING ALONG THESE FEATURES TO AID CONVECTIVE CHANCES...ESPCLY
NORTH/WEST THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS DECENT LOW PRESSURE PASSES
JUST NORTH...SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS. STRONGER
ENERGY ALOFT DROPPING OVER THE CENTRAL STATES UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN
START TO DIG OUT ANOTHER RATHER STRONG 5H TROUGH TO THE NW FRIDAY...WITH
AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE HELPING TO DRIVE THE NEXT COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION BY FRIDAY EVENING. EARLIER MODELS AGREED ON QUITE
A BIT OF DEEP MOISTURE BEING PULLED NORTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT/WAVE
ON FRIDAY WITH GOOD DYNAMICS AND JET FEATURES ALOFT. THIS WOULD
SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS FRIDAY UNLESS THE FRONT IS
FASTER SIMILAR TO THE LATEST GFS WHICH WOULD TREND THE BEST
COVERAGE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THUS HAVE TRENDED THE
HIGHEST CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
WHILE KEEPING HIGH CHANCES FRIDAY FOR CONSISTENCY AND LINE WITH
THE CURRENT CMC AND EARLIER ECMWF. WILL BE A BIT COOLER BUT STILL
HUMID PER MORE CLOUDS/SHRA WITH HIGHS MOSTLY 80S THURSDAY...
LOWERING TO 70S WEST TO MID 80S EAST FRIDAY.

SIMILAR TO THE LAST WEEK OR TWO...APPEARS ANOTHER SURGE OF MUCH DRIER/COOLER
AIR LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT NEXT WEEKEND AS YET ANOTHER 5H TROUGH
CARVES ITSELF OUT ACROSS THE EAST. GUIDANCE EVEN COOLER ALOFT
WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN PROGGED 850 MB TEMPS AS COOL AS +12C MOUNTAINS
BUT MAY BE TOO COOL THAT FAR OUT. HOWEVER STILL ENOUGH TO DROP
HIGHS BACK IN THE 70S MOUNTAINS AND ONLY LOW/MID 80S OUT EAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS/WEDGES IN FROM THE NORTH. RESIDUAL POPS A BIT
TRICKY TOWARD DAYS 6/7 BUT SHOULD BE DRIER WITH PERHAPS SOME
LEFTOVER UPSLOPE SHOWERS WEST SATURDAY AND ONLY ISOLATED FAR
SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT SUNDAY...

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FIRST PORTION OF THE VALID PERIOD...THEN EXPECT SOME
RADIATIONAL FOG/STRATUS TO DEVELOP AFTER DARK. FOG/STRATUS WAS NOT
WIDESPREAD LAST NIGHT AND BELIEVE THE MOST SITES WILL GET BY WITH
A PERIOD OF MVFR TOWARD DAYBREAK...EXCEPT AT KLWB WHERE CONDITIONS
LOOK TO FAVOR TYPICAL LIFR DEVELOPMENT BY ABOUT 08Z. THERE ARE
ALSO SOME INDICATIONS IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS OF AN INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT SO WILL
INTRODUCE SOME SCATTERED MVFR CLOUDS WITH THE TEMPO FOR FOG.

ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF AFTER DAYBREAK TOMORROW FOLLOWED
BY SCT VFR CU. THE AREA WILL THEN BE GETTING SQUEEZED BY AN
APPROACHING FRONT FRONT THE NORTH AND A LOW MOVING UP THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS AND PUSHING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN OUR DIRECTION FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. BELIEVE ANY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE FEATURES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THIS VALID PERIOD SO WILL
KEEP TAFS DRY WITH NO MENTION OF A CIG...THROUGH A VFR BKN CIG IS
POSSIBLE VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT SATURDAY...

MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONT
WILL SET UP IN THE MID ATLANTIC WHICH COULD BRING A FEW SHRA/TSRA
BY TUESDAY...WITH PERHAPS A BIT MORE COVERAGE LATER WEDNESDAY AT
THIS POINT. THUS THE THREAT OF SUB-VFR REMAINS LOW UNTIL AROUND
MIDWEEK...EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL FOG POTENTIAL AT KLWB/KBCB EACH
MORNING BETWEEN 09-13Z.
&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...MBS/WP




000
FXUS61 KLWX 021905
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
305 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND ENTER THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL IN THE AREA TUESDAY...SLIDE SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY...THEN WIGGLE BACK NORTH THURSDAY. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL THEN RIDE EAST ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY. AFTER THIS
LOW PASSES THE FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT PRESENT...HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL LOCATED WELL
TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR TONIGHT...THE HIGH
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...AND WITH DRY AIR OVER THE AREA WITH MANY
AREAS SEEING DEW POINTS DOWN INTO THE 50S AT PRESENT...RADIATIONAL
COOLING SHOULD START QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. AS WINDS BEGIN TO TURN
SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT TO THE
NORTHWEST...DEW POINTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE...AND SHOULD REACH THE
LOWER 60S BY MORNING. THIS WILL LIMIT JUST HOW COOL IT CAN
GET...BUT ALSO MAY HELP SOME PATCHY FOG TO FORM AWAY FROM THE
COASTAL AND METRO AREAS. OTHERWISE...VERY BENIGN WEATHER WITH
LIGHT WINDS.

FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY...BUT WITH FORCING
REMAINING WELL NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY AND LIMITED MOISTURE /MOST
GUIDANCE KEEPS PW`S BELOW 1.5 INCHES/...GENERALLY WE EXPECT DRY
WEATHER THROUGH AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP
SO WE DO EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME A BIT GUSTY...AND THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DRAG WARMER AIR NORTH SO HIGHS WILL RISE
SEVERAL DEGREES COMPARED TO TODAY. HOWEVER...WITH A RELATIVE LACK
OF MOISTURE /DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOW 60S/...HEAT
INDICES SHOULD STAY WELL BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AND IN FACT
PROBABLY WON`T EVEN CRACK 100 AT OUR RELIABLE REPORTING STATIONS.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 90S IN MOST AREAS WITH MID 90S IN THE
HOTTEST SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONT MOVES IN MONDAY NIGHT. SHEAR DOES
INCREASE...HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY LIMITED
AND THIS WILL IN TURN LIMIT CAPE...SO THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAVING TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA RATHER THAN
DEVELOP LOCALLY. BEST FORCING ALOFT WILL STAY NORTH. THUS...IT
APPEARS THAT STORMS WHICH DEVELOP TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL ENTER THE
CWA DURING THE EVENING...BUT APPEAR LIKELY TO DIMINISH TO SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY EVEN BEFORE REACHING THE METRO AREA. THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER SHOULD HOLD LOWS UP A BIT WARMER THAN
TONIGHT`S READINGS. PLACES THAT RECIEVE ANY RAIN COULD ALSO SEE
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT IF SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP.

LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL BE MOVING NORTHWARD WHILE A
BERMUDA HIGH PERSISTS IN THE ATLANTIC TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BE STALLED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR TUESDAY. DUE TO THE TIME OF YEAR...THE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT IS WEAK BUT DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS. IN VICNIITY OF THE FRONT AND IN THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR
...ISO-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. FCST SOUNDINGS
AT DCA-NHK SHOW 1-2K J/KG OF SBCAPE WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR. A
STABLE LAYER WILL LIKELY BE OVERCOME BY LATE AFTERNOON AND SOME
STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS S MD AND
SURROUNDING WATERS.

THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS GRADUALLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING OF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A STALLED
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WHILE FINER
SCALE DETAILS REMAIN TO BE SEEN...FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH
HIGH CHANCE POPS AS THE WAVE PASSES. CONVECTION POTENTIAL WILL
DEPEND ON EXACT TIMING/PLACEMENT OF THE WAVE.

GUIDANCE DIVERGES AFTER THURSDAY...WITH SOME SOLUTIONS SUGGESTING
THE FRONT SAGS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO LEAVE THE AREA DRY...WHILE
OTHER SOLUTIONS KEEP THE FRONT STALLED OVER THE AREA WITH A SECOND
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. CLIMATOLOGY WOULD
SUGGEST A SLOWER SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT...AND AS SUCH
HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ATTEMPT TO MAKE A RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CIGS AND VIS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. CHANCE OF SUB-
VFR CIGS/VIS AT MRB/CHO TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG...WITH BEST CHANCE
AT CHO...THEN CHANCE OF SUB VFR CIGS/VIS MONDAY NIGHT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING AND SHOWERS/PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT.
OTHER CONCERN WILL BE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST GUSTING TO AROUND
20 KNOTS AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY AFTERNOON.

A STALLED COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE I-95 TERMINALS TUESDAY AND
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN LWR CIGS/VSBYS ASSOCIATED W/ SHWRS/TSTMS WED
NIGHT- THU. WIND DIRECTION FORECAST UNCERTAIN AND DEPENDS ON
PLACEMENT OF STALLED FRONT...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AOB 10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE SOUTH ON MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
HELP WINDS TO REACH SCA LEVELS...AND HAVE KEPT SCA GOING THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING ALL WATERS...WITH THE SCA FOR THE BAY AND ADJACENT
WATERS CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

A STALLED COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE WATERS TUESDAY AND SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS THAT MAY WARRENT A SMW.
DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE GRADIENT...A SCA MAY BE NEEDED
TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.

WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ON
THURSDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE WATERS ALONG THE
FRONT. SHOULD THIS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE BE STRONGER THAN WHAT THE
CURRENT CONSENSUS SUGGEST THEN THERE IS A CHANCE OF SCA GUSTS
THURSDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION IS LOW AT THIS TIME
GIVEN MODEL SPREAD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE LOWERING WITH THE FULL MOON NOW BEHIND
US...AND ANOMALIES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT TIDAL FLOODING WILL NOT BE
A THREAT THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT
WILL ELEVATE TIDAL ANOMALIES ON MONDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT WE ARE
NOT EXPECTING MINOR FLOODING. THIS POSSIBILITY WILL REQUIRE
MONITORING HOWEVER.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...RCM
SHORT TERM...HAS/RCM
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...HAS/RCM/DFH
MARINE...HAS/RCM/DFH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RCM



000
FXUS61 KLWX 021905
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
305 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND ENTER THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL IN THE AREA TUESDAY...SLIDE SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY...THEN WIGGLE BACK NORTH THURSDAY. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL THEN RIDE EAST ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY. AFTER THIS
LOW PASSES THE FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT PRESENT...HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL LOCATED WELL
TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR TONIGHT...THE HIGH
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...AND WITH DRY AIR OVER THE AREA WITH MANY
AREAS SEEING DEW POINTS DOWN INTO THE 50S AT PRESENT...RADIATIONAL
COOLING SHOULD START QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. AS WINDS BEGIN TO TURN
SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT TO THE
NORTHWEST...DEW POINTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE...AND SHOULD REACH THE
LOWER 60S BY MORNING. THIS WILL LIMIT JUST HOW COOL IT CAN
GET...BUT ALSO MAY HELP SOME PATCHY FOG TO FORM AWAY FROM THE
COASTAL AND METRO AREAS. OTHERWISE...VERY BENIGN WEATHER WITH
LIGHT WINDS.

FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY...BUT WITH FORCING
REMAINING WELL NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY AND LIMITED MOISTURE /MOST
GUIDANCE KEEPS PW`S BELOW 1.5 INCHES/...GENERALLY WE EXPECT DRY
WEATHER THROUGH AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP
SO WE DO EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME A BIT GUSTY...AND THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DRAG WARMER AIR NORTH SO HIGHS WILL RISE
SEVERAL DEGREES COMPARED TO TODAY. HOWEVER...WITH A RELATIVE LACK
OF MOISTURE /DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOW 60S/...HEAT
INDICES SHOULD STAY WELL BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AND IN FACT
PROBABLY WON`T EVEN CRACK 100 AT OUR RELIABLE REPORTING STATIONS.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 90S IN MOST AREAS WITH MID 90S IN THE
HOTTEST SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONT MOVES IN MONDAY NIGHT. SHEAR DOES
INCREASE...HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY LIMITED
AND THIS WILL IN TURN LIMIT CAPE...SO THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAVING TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA RATHER THAN
DEVELOP LOCALLY. BEST FORCING ALOFT WILL STAY NORTH. THUS...IT
APPEARS THAT STORMS WHICH DEVELOP TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL ENTER THE
CWA DURING THE EVENING...BUT APPEAR LIKELY TO DIMINISH TO SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY EVEN BEFORE REACHING THE METRO AREA. THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER SHOULD HOLD LOWS UP A BIT WARMER THAN
TONIGHT`S READINGS. PLACES THAT RECIEVE ANY RAIN COULD ALSO SEE
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT IF SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP.

LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL BE MOVING NORTHWARD WHILE A
BERMUDA HIGH PERSISTS IN THE ATLANTIC TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BE STALLED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR TUESDAY. DUE TO THE TIME OF YEAR...THE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT IS WEAK BUT DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS. IN VICNIITY OF THE FRONT AND IN THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR
...ISO-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. FCST SOUNDINGS
AT DCA-NHK SHOW 1-2K J/KG OF SBCAPE WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR. A
STABLE LAYER WILL LIKELY BE OVERCOME BY LATE AFTERNOON AND SOME
STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS S MD AND
SURROUNDING WATERS.

THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS GRADUALLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING OF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A STALLED
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WHILE FINER
SCALE DETAILS REMAIN TO BE SEEN...FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH
HIGH CHANCE POPS AS THE WAVE PASSES. CONVECTION POTENTIAL WILL
DEPEND ON EXACT TIMING/PLACEMENT OF THE WAVE.

GUIDANCE DIVERGES AFTER THURSDAY...WITH SOME SOLUTIONS SUGGESTING
THE FRONT SAGS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO LEAVE THE AREA DRY...WHILE
OTHER SOLUTIONS KEEP THE FRONT STALLED OVER THE AREA WITH A SECOND
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. CLIMATOLOGY WOULD
SUGGEST A SLOWER SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT...AND AS SUCH
HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ATTEMPT TO MAKE A RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CIGS AND VIS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. CHANCE OF SUB-
VFR CIGS/VIS AT MRB/CHO TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG...WITH BEST CHANCE
AT CHO...THEN CHANCE OF SUB VFR CIGS/VIS MONDAY NIGHT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING AND SHOWERS/PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT.
OTHER CONCERN WILL BE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST GUSTING TO AROUND
20 KNOTS AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY AFTERNOON.

A STALLED COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE I-95 TERMINALS TUESDAY AND
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN LWR CIGS/VSBYS ASSOCIATED W/ SHWRS/TSTMS WED
NIGHT- THU. WIND DIRECTION FORECAST UNCERTAIN AND DEPENDS ON
PLACEMENT OF STALLED FRONT...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AOB 10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE SOUTH ON MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
HELP WINDS TO REACH SCA LEVELS...AND HAVE KEPT SCA GOING THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING ALL WATERS...WITH THE SCA FOR THE BAY AND ADJACENT
WATERS CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

A STALLED COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE WATERS TUESDAY AND SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS THAT MAY WARRENT A SMW.
DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE GRADIENT...A SCA MAY BE NEEDED
TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.

WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ON
THURSDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE WATERS ALONG THE
FRONT. SHOULD THIS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE BE STRONGER THAN WHAT THE
CURRENT CONSENSUS SUGGEST THEN THERE IS A CHANCE OF SCA GUSTS
THURSDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION IS LOW AT THIS TIME
GIVEN MODEL SPREAD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE LOWERING WITH THE FULL MOON NOW BEHIND
US...AND ANOMALIES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT TIDAL FLOODING WILL NOT BE
A THREAT THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT
WILL ELEVATE TIDAL ANOMALIES ON MONDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT WE ARE
NOT EXPECTING MINOR FLOODING. THIS POSSIBILITY WILL REQUIRE
MONITORING HOWEVER.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...RCM
SHORT TERM...HAS/RCM
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...HAS/RCM/DFH
MARINE...HAS/RCM/DFH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RCM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 021758
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
158 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
SINKS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...REACHING THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER BY
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 955 AM EDT SUNDAY...

CURRENT FORECAST OF A VERY NICE SUNDAY IS ON TRACK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBS SHOW
THAT MORNING FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS HAS JUST ABOUT COMPLETELY
DISSIPATED WHILE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS PUSHING CIRRUS
INTO THE AREA...WHICH GUIDANCE KEEPS AROUND MOST OF THE DAY. TEMPS
ARE STARTING OFF QUITE COOL AND COMBINED WITH THE LOSS OF GOOD
DOWNSLOPING FLOW EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS WILL LIKELY MAKE FOR
MAX TEMPS JUST A HAIR LOWER THAN READINGS YESTERDAY. GENERALLY
LOOKING FOR UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 EAST OF THE RIDGE AND UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S WEST.

PREVIOUS AFD...

TONIGHT...STILL LOOKING AT A QUIET WX NIGHT WITH CALM/LIGHT
WINDS. THE FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH A COUPLE DAYS OR SO AGO MAY
SHIFT NWD WITH A SFC WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. NOT SEEING
ANY MOISTURE THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SCATTERING OF LOWER
CLOUDS TOWARD SOUTHSIDE VA AND NC PIEDMONT LATE TONIGHT BUT
MAJORITY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP THE CLOUDS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
OUR AREA...SO WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOWS AGAIN GOING
TO VARY FROM THE LOWER 50S DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO MID TO UPPER
50S REST OF THE MOUNTAINS...EXCEPT LOWER 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER
PEAKS OF SE WV AS ENOUGH FLOW TO KEEP IT MIXED. THE
PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS AND ROANOKE VALLEY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S. PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG EXPECTED AGAIN LATE IN THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO HOLD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE COUNTY THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE TROUGH WILL
BECOME LESS PRONOUNCED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK AS THE
CENTER PUSHES OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. REGARDLESS...THE PATTERN WILL
ALLOW US TO MAINTAIN A GENERAL WEST TO EAST UPPER LEVEL WINDFLOW FOR
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.

MONDAY WILL START DRY...BUT EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS TO PUSH
AGAINST THE WESTERN RIDGES DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE NOT
OPTIMISTIC THAT MUCH...IF ANY...OF THE RAINFALL WILL SURVIVE EAST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS THEY ENCOUNTER DRY AIR IN PLACE AND
DOWNSLOPE WINDFLOW. DOWNSLOPING AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE MID 80S MOST SPOTS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND AS HIGH AS THE MID 90S ACROSS THE
SOUTHSIDE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT...AND
SOME DISAGREEMENT REMAINS AS TO HOW FAR ACROSS OUR AREA THE FRONT
WILL SINK ON TUESDAY. THE CONSENSUS IS THAT THE FRONT WILL ADVANCE
TO NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER BY EVENING. AS SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460 DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THAT STATED...DO NOT EXPECT ANY STRONG RETURN OF
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND THEREFORE EXPECT CONVECTION TO
REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED AT BEST.

ATTENTION TURNS TO OUR WEST ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES APPROACH FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST. LATEST MODELS ARE FOCUSING ON ONE SUCH
DISTURBANCE...POTENTIALLY THE DECAYING REMNANTS OF A THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX RIDING UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE IN THE MODELS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS FOR TRACK...TIMING AND INTENSITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM EDT SUNDAY...

EAST-WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS ESTABLISHED OVER OR NEAR THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD AS ADDITIONAL
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVES AND/OR MESOSCALE VORTICITY CENTERS FROM
DECAYING OLD MIDWEST CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
ENERGY/SUPPORT TO MAINTAIN THREAT FOR DAILY SCATTERED CONVECTION.

STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT/POSITIONING OF EACH WAVE IN MAINLY ZONAL UPPER
FLOW WILL INFLUENCE DAILY POSITION OF DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...
EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER...AND EXTENT OF WARM OR COOL ADVECTION
DEPENDING ON POSITION RELATIVE TO FRONT.

HIGHEST THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THIS PERIOD APPEARS TO COME ON
FRIDAY...WHEN TWO OF THE MORE NOTABLE UPSTREAM WAVES ARRIVE...AND
THIS IS REFLECTED ACCORDINGLY IN GRIDS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.
OTHERWISE...A LOWER AND MORE GENERALIZED THREAT FOR DAILY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINTAINED INTO SATURDAY UNTIL REGIONAL/
MESOSCALE FEATURES BECOME BETTER RESOLVED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT SUNDAY...

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FIRST PORTION OF THE VALID PERIOD...THEN EXPECT SOME
RADIATIONAL FOG/STRATUS TO DEVELOP AFTER DARK. FOG/STRATUS WAS NOT
WIDESPREAD LAST NIGHT AND BELIEVE THE MOST SITES WILL GET BY WITH
A PERIOD OF MVFR TOWARD DAYBREAK...EXCEPT AT KLWB WHERE CONDITIONS
LOOK TO FAVOR TYPICAL LIFR DEVELOPMENT BY ABOUT 08Z. THERE ARE
ALSO SOME INDICATIONS IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS OF AN INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT SO WILL
INTRODUCE SOME SCATTERED MVFR CLOUDS WITH THE TEMPO FOR FOG.

ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF AFTER DAYBREAK TOMORROW FOLLOWED
BY SCT VFR CU. THE AREA WILL THEN BE GETTING SQUEEZED BY AN
APPROACHING FRONT FRONT THE NORTH AND A LOW MOVING UP THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS AND PUSHING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN OUR DIRECTION FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. BELIEVE ANY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE FEATURES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THIS VALID PERIOD SO WILL
KEEP TAFS DRY WITH NO MENTION OF A CIG...THROUGH A VFR BKN CIG IS
POSSIBLE VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT SATURDAY...

MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONT
WILL SET UP IN THE MID ATLANTIC WHICH COULD BRING A FEW SHRA/TSRA
BY TUESDAY...WITH PERHAPS A BIT MORE COVERAGE LATER WEDNESDAY AT
THIS POINT. THUS THE THREAT OF SUB-VFR REMAINS LOW UNTIL AROUND
MIDWEEK...EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL FOG POTENTIAL AT KLWB/KBCB EACH
MORNING BETWEEN 09-13Z.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...MBS/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF/WERT
AVIATION...MBS/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 021758
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
158 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
SINKS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...REACHING THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER BY
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 955 AM EDT SUNDAY...

CURRENT FORECAST OF A VERY NICE SUNDAY IS ON TRACK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBS SHOW
THAT MORNING FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS HAS JUST ABOUT COMPLETELY
DISSIPATED WHILE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS PUSHING CIRRUS
INTO THE AREA...WHICH GUIDANCE KEEPS AROUND MOST OF THE DAY. TEMPS
ARE STARTING OFF QUITE COOL AND COMBINED WITH THE LOSS OF GOOD
DOWNSLOPING FLOW EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS WILL LIKELY MAKE FOR
MAX TEMPS JUST A HAIR LOWER THAN READINGS YESTERDAY. GENERALLY
LOOKING FOR UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 EAST OF THE RIDGE AND UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S WEST.

PREVIOUS AFD...

TONIGHT...STILL LOOKING AT A QUIET WX NIGHT WITH CALM/LIGHT
WINDS. THE FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH A COUPLE DAYS OR SO AGO MAY
SHIFT NWD WITH A SFC WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. NOT SEEING
ANY MOISTURE THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SCATTERING OF LOWER
CLOUDS TOWARD SOUTHSIDE VA AND NC PIEDMONT LATE TONIGHT BUT
MAJORITY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP THE CLOUDS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
OUR AREA...SO WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOWS AGAIN GOING
TO VARY FROM THE LOWER 50S DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO MID TO UPPER
50S REST OF THE MOUNTAINS...EXCEPT LOWER 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER
PEAKS OF SE WV AS ENOUGH FLOW TO KEEP IT MIXED. THE
PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS AND ROANOKE VALLEY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S. PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG EXPECTED AGAIN LATE IN THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO HOLD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE COUNTY THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE TROUGH WILL
BECOME LESS PRONOUNCED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK AS THE
CENTER PUSHES OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. REGARDLESS...THE PATTERN WILL
ALLOW US TO MAINTAIN A GENERAL WEST TO EAST UPPER LEVEL WINDFLOW FOR
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.

MONDAY WILL START DRY...BUT EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS TO PUSH
AGAINST THE WESTERN RIDGES DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE NOT
OPTIMISTIC THAT MUCH...IF ANY...OF THE RAINFALL WILL SURVIVE EAST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS THEY ENCOUNTER DRY AIR IN PLACE AND
DOWNSLOPE WINDFLOW. DOWNSLOPING AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE MID 80S MOST SPOTS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND AS HIGH AS THE MID 90S ACROSS THE
SOUTHSIDE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT...AND
SOME DISAGREEMENT REMAINS AS TO HOW FAR ACROSS OUR AREA THE FRONT
WILL SINK ON TUESDAY. THE CONSENSUS IS THAT THE FRONT WILL ADVANCE
TO NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER BY EVENING. AS SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460 DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THAT STATED...DO NOT EXPECT ANY STRONG RETURN OF
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND THEREFORE EXPECT CONVECTION TO
REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED AT BEST.

ATTENTION TURNS TO OUR WEST ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES APPROACH FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST. LATEST MODELS ARE FOCUSING ON ONE SUCH
DISTURBANCE...POTENTIALLY THE DECAYING REMNANTS OF A THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX RIDING UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE IN THE MODELS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS FOR TRACK...TIMING AND INTENSITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM EDT SUNDAY...

EAST-WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS ESTABLISHED OVER OR NEAR THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD AS ADDITIONAL
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVES AND/OR MESOSCALE VORTICITY CENTERS FROM
DECAYING OLD MIDWEST CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
ENERGY/SUPPORT TO MAINTAIN THREAT FOR DAILY SCATTERED CONVECTION.

STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT/POSITIONING OF EACH WAVE IN MAINLY ZONAL UPPER
FLOW WILL INFLUENCE DAILY POSITION OF DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...
EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER...AND EXTENT OF WARM OR COOL ADVECTION
DEPENDING ON POSITION RELATIVE TO FRONT.

HIGHEST THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THIS PERIOD APPEARS TO COME ON
FRIDAY...WHEN TWO OF THE MORE NOTABLE UPSTREAM WAVES ARRIVE...AND
THIS IS REFLECTED ACCORDINGLY IN GRIDS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.
OTHERWISE...A LOWER AND MORE GENERALIZED THREAT FOR DAILY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINTAINED INTO SATURDAY UNTIL REGIONAL/
MESOSCALE FEATURES BECOME BETTER RESOLVED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT SUNDAY...

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FIRST PORTION OF THE VALID PERIOD...THEN EXPECT SOME
RADIATIONAL FOG/STRATUS TO DEVELOP AFTER DARK. FOG/STRATUS WAS NOT
WIDESPREAD LAST NIGHT AND BELIEVE THE MOST SITES WILL GET BY WITH
A PERIOD OF MVFR TOWARD DAYBREAK...EXCEPT AT KLWB WHERE CONDITIONS
LOOK TO FAVOR TYPICAL LIFR DEVELOPMENT BY ABOUT 08Z. THERE ARE
ALSO SOME INDICATIONS IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS OF AN INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT SO WILL
INTRODUCE SOME SCATTERED MVFR CLOUDS WITH THE TEMPO FOR FOG.

ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF AFTER DAYBREAK TOMORROW FOLLOWED
BY SCT VFR CU. THE AREA WILL THEN BE GETTING SQUEEZED BY AN
APPROACHING FRONT FRONT THE NORTH AND A LOW MOVING UP THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS AND PUSHING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN OUR DIRECTION FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. BELIEVE ANY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE FEATURES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THIS VALID PERIOD SO WILL
KEEP TAFS DRY WITH NO MENTION OF A CIG...THROUGH A VFR BKN CIG IS
POSSIBLE VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT SATURDAY...

MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONT
WILL SET UP IN THE MID ATLANTIC WHICH COULD BRING A FEW SHRA/TSRA
BY TUESDAY...WITH PERHAPS A BIT MORE COVERAGE LATER WEDNESDAY AT
THIS POINT. THUS THE THREAT OF SUB-VFR REMAINS LOW UNTIL AROUND
MIDWEEK...EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL FOG POTENTIAL AT KLWB/KBCB EACH
MORNING BETWEEN 09-13Z.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...MBS/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF/WERT
AVIATION...MBS/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 021758
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
158 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
SINKS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...REACHING THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER BY
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 955 AM EDT SUNDAY...

CURRENT FORECAST OF A VERY NICE SUNDAY IS ON TRACK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBS SHOW
THAT MORNING FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS HAS JUST ABOUT COMPLETELY
DISSIPATED WHILE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS PUSHING CIRRUS
INTO THE AREA...WHICH GUIDANCE KEEPS AROUND MOST OF THE DAY. TEMPS
ARE STARTING OFF QUITE COOL AND COMBINED WITH THE LOSS OF GOOD
DOWNSLOPING FLOW EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS WILL LIKELY MAKE FOR
MAX TEMPS JUST A HAIR LOWER THAN READINGS YESTERDAY. GENERALLY
LOOKING FOR UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 EAST OF THE RIDGE AND UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S WEST.

PREVIOUS AFD...

TONIGHT...STILL LOOKING AT A QUIET WX NIGHT WITH CALM/LIGHT
WINDS. THE FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH A COUPLE DAYS OR SO AGO MAY
SHIFT NWD WITH A SFC WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. NOT SEEING
ANY MOISTURE THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SCATTERING OF LOWER
CLOUDS TOWARD SOUTHSIDE VA AND NC PIEDMONT LATE TONIGHT BUT
MAJORITY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP THE CLOUDS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
OUR AREA...SO WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOWS AGAIN GOING
TO VARY FROM THE LOWER 50S DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO MID TO UPPER
50S REST OF THE MOUNTAINS...EXCEPT LOWER 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER
PEAKS OF SE WV AS ENOUGH FLOW TO KEEP IT MIXED. THE
PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS AND ROANOKE VALLEY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S. PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG EXPECTED AGAIN LATE IN THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO HOLD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE COUNTY THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE TROUGH WILL
BECOME LESS PRONOUNCED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK AS THE
CENTER PUSHES OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. REGARDLESS...THE PATTERN WILL
ALLOW US TO MAINTAIN A GENERAL WEST TO EAST UPPER LEVEL WINDFLOW FOR
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.

MONDAY WILL START DRY...BUT EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS TO PUSH
AGAINST THE WESTERN RIDGES DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE NOT
OPTIMISTIC THAT MUCH...IF ANY...OF THE RAINFALL WILL SURVIVE EAST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS THEY ENCOUNTER DRY AIR IN PLACE AND
DOWNSLOPE WINDFLOW. DOWNSLOPING AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE MID 80S MOST SPOTS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND AS HIGH AS THE MID 90S ACROSS THE
SOUTHSIDE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT...AND
SOME DISAGREEMENT REMAINS AS TO HOW FAR ACROSS OUR AREA THE FRONT
WILL SINK ON TUESDAY. THE CONSENSUS IS THAT THE FRONT WILL ADVANCE
TO NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER BY EVENING. AS SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460 DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THAT STATED...DO NOT EXPECT ANY STRONG RETURN OF
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND THEREFORE EXPECT CONVECTION TO
REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED AT BEST.

ATTENTION TURNS TO OUR WEST ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES APPROACH FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST. LATEST MODELS ARE FOCUSING ON ONE SUCH
DISTURBANCE...POTENTIALLY THE DECAYING REMNANTS OF A THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX RIDING UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE IN THE MODELS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS FOR TRACK...TIMING AND INTENSITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM EDT SUNDAY...

EAST-WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS ESTABLISHED OVER OR NEAR THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD AS ADDITIONAL
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVES AND/OR MESOSCALE VORTICITY CENTERS FROM
DECAYING OLD MIDWEST CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
ENERGY/SUPPORT TO MAINTAIN THREAT FOR DAILY SCATTERED CONVECTION.

STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT/POSITIONING OF EACH WAVE IN MAINLY ZONAL UPPER
FLOW WILL INFLUENCE DAILY POSITION OF DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...
EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER...AND EXTENT OF WARM OR COOL ADVECTION
DEPENDING ON POSITION RELATIVE TO FRONT.

HIGHEST THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THIS PERIOD APPEARS TO COME ON
FRIDAY...WHEN TWO OF THE MORE NOTABLE UPSTREAM WAVES ARRIVE...AND
THIS IS REFLECTED ACCORDINGLY IN GRIDS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.
OTHERWISE...A LOWER AND MORE GENERALIZED THREAT FOR DAILY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINTAINED INTO SATURDAY UNTIL REGIONAL/
MESOSCALE FEATURES BECOME BETTER RESOLVED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT SUNDAY...

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FIRST PORTION OF THE VALID PERIOD...THEN EXPECT SOME
RADIATIONAL FOG/STRATUS TO DEVELOP AFTER DARK. FOG/STRATUS WAS NOT
WIDESPREAD LAST NIGHT AND BELIEVE THE MOST SITES WILL GET BY WITH
A PERIOD OF MVFR TOWARD DAYBREAK...EXCEPT AT KLWB WHERE CONDITIONS
LOOK TO FAVOR TYPICAL LIFR DEVELOPMENT BY ABOUT 08Z. THERE ARE
ALSO SOME INDICATIONS IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS OF AN INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT SO WILL
INTRODUCE SOME SCATTERED MVFR CLOUDS WITH THE TEMPO FOR FOG.

ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF AFTER DAYBREAK TOMORROW FOLLOWED
BY SCT VFR CU. THE AREA WILL THEN BE GETTING SQUEEZED BY AN
APPROACHING FRONT FRONT THE NORTH AND A LOW MOVING UP THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS AND PUSHING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN OUR DIRECTION FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. BELIEVE ANY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE FEATURES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THIS VALID PERIOD SO WILL
KEEP TAFS DRY WITH NO MENTION OF A CIG...THROUGH A VFR BKN CIG IS
POSSIBLE VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT SATURDAY...

MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONT
WILL SET UP IN THE MID ATLANTIC WHICH COULD BRING A FEW SHRA/TSRA
BY TUESDAY...WITH PERHAPS A BIT MORE COVERAGE LATER WEDNESDAY AT
THIS POINT. THUS THE THREAT OF SUB-VFR REMAINS LOW UNTIL AROUND
MIDWEEK...EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL FOG POTENTIAL AT KLWB/KBCB EACH
MORNING BETWEEN 09-13Z.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...MBS/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF/WERT
AVIATION...MBS/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 021758
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
158 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
SINKS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...REACHING THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER BY
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 955 AM EDT SUNDAY...

CURRENT FORECAST OF A VERY NICE SUNDAY IS ON TRACK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBS SHOW
THAT MORNING FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS HAS JUST ABOUT COMPLETELY
DISSIPATED WHILE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS PUSHING CIRRUS
INTO THE AREA...WHICH GUIDANCE KEEPS AROUND MOST OF THE DAY. TEMPS
ARE STARTING OFF QUITE COOL AND COMBINED WITH THE LOSS OF GOOD
DOWNSLOPING FLOW EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS WILL LIKELY MAKE FOR
MAX TEMPS JUST A HAIR LOWER THAN READINGS YESTERDAY. GENERALLY
LOOKING FOR UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 EAST OF THE RIDGE AND UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S WEST.

PREVIOUS AFD...

TONIGHT...STILL LOOKING AT A QUIET WX NIGHT WITH CALM/LIGHT
WINDS. THE FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH A COUPLE DAYS OR SO AGO MAY
SHIFT NWD WITH A SFC WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. NOT SEEING
ANY MOISTURE THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SCATTERING OF LOWER
CLOUDS TOWARD SOUTHSIDE VA AND NC PIEDMONT LATE TONIGHT BUT
MAJORITY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP THE CLOUDS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
OUR AREA...SO WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOWS AGAIN GOING
TO VARY FROM THE LOWER 50S DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO MID TO UPPER
50S REST OF THE MOUNTAINS...EXCEPT LOWER 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER
PEAKS OF SE WV AS ENOUGH FLOW TO KEEP IT MIXED. THE
PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS AND ROANOKE VALLEY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S. PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG EXPECTED AGAIN LATE IN THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO HOLD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE COUNTY THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE TROUGH WILL
BECOME LESS PRONOUNCED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK AS THE
CENTER PUSHES OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. REGARDLESS...THE PATTERN WILL
ALLOW US TO MAINTAIN A GENERAL WEST TO EAST UPPER LEVEL WINDFLOW FOR
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.

MONDAY WILL START DRY...BUT EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS TO PUSH
AGAINST THE WESTERN RIDGES DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE NOT
OPTIMISTIC THAT MUCH...IF ANY...OF THE RAINFALL WILL SURVIVE EAST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS THEY ENCOUNTER DRY AIR IN PLACE AND
DOWNSLOPE WINDFLOW. DOWNSLOPING AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE MID 80S MOST SPOTS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND AS HIGH AS THE MID 90S ACROSS THE
SOUTHSIDE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT...AND
SOME DISAGREEMENT REMAINS AS TO HOW FAR ACROSS OUR AREA THE FRONT
WILL SINK ON TUESDAY. THE CONSENSUS IS THAT THE FRONT WILL ADVANCE
TO NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER BY EVENING. AS SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460 DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THAT STATED...DO NOT EXPECT ANY STRONG RETURN OF
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND THEREFORE EXPECT CONVECTION TO
REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED AT BEST.

ATTENTION TURNS TO OUR WEST ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES APPROACH FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST. LATEST MODELS ARE FOCUSING ON ONE SUCH
DISTURBANCE...POTENTIALLY THE DECAYING REMNANTS OF A THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX RIDING UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE IN THE MODELS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS FOR TRACK...TIMING AND INTENSITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM EDT SUNDAY...

EAST-WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS ESTABLISHED OVER OR NEAR THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD AS ADDITIONAL
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVES AND/OR MESOSCALE VORTICITY CENTERS FROM
DECAYING OLD MIDWEST CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
ENERGY/SUPPORT TO MAINTAIN THREAT FOR DAILY SCATTERED CONVECTION.

STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT/POSITIONING OF EACH WAVE IN MAINLY ZONAL UPPER
FLOW WILL INFLUENCE DAILY POSITION OF DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...
EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER...AND EXTENT OF WARM OR COOL ADVECTION
DEPENDING ON POSITION RELATIVE TO FRONT.

HIGHEST THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THIS PERIOD APPEARS TO COME ON
FRIDAY...WHEN TWO OF THE MORE NOTABLE UPSTREAM WAVES ARRIVE...AND
THIS IS REFLECTED ACCORDINGLY IN GRIDS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.
OTHERWISE...A LOWER AND MORE GENERALIZED THREAT FOR DAILY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINTAINED INTO SATURDAY UNTIL REGIONAL/
MESOSCALE FEATURES BECOME BETTER RESOLVED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT SUNDAY...

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FIRST PORTION OF THE VALID PERIOD...THEN EXPECT SOME
RADIATIONAL FOG/STRATUS TO DEVELOP AFTER DARK. FOG/STRATUS WAS NOT
WIDESPREAD LAST NIGHT AND BELIEVE THE MOST SITES WILL GET BY WITH
A PERIOD OF MVFR TOWARD DAYBREAK...EXCEPT AT KLWB WHERE CONDITIONS
LOOK TO FAVOR TYPICAL LIFR DEVELOPMENT BY ABOUT 08Z. THERE ARE
ALSO SOME INDICATIONS IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS OF AN INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT SO WILL
INTRODUCE SOME SCATTERED MVFR CLOUDS WITH THE TEMPO FOR FOG.

ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF AFTER DAYBREAK TOMORROW FOLLOWED
BY SCT VFR CU. THE AREA WILL THEN BE GETTING SQUEEZED BY AN
APPROACHING FRONT FRONT THE NORTH AND A LOW MOVING UP THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS AND PUSHING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN OUR DIRECTION FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. BELIEVE ANY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE FEATURES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THIS VALID PERIOD SO WILL
KEEP TAFS DRY WITH NO MENTION OF A CIG...THROUGH A VFR BKN CIG IS
POSSIBLE VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT SATURDAY...

MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONT
WILL SET UP IN THE MID ATLANTIC WHICH COULD BRING A FEW SHRA/TSRA
BY TUESDAY...WITH PERHAPS A BIT MORE COVERAGE LATER WEDNESDAY AT
THIS POINT. THUS THE THREAT OF SUB-VFR REMAINS LOW UNTIL AROUND
MIDWEEK...EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL FOG POTENTIAL AT KLWB/KBCB EACH
MORNING BETWEEN 09-13Z.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...MBS/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF/WERT
AVIATION...MBS/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 021758
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
158 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
SINKS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...REACHING THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER BY
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 955 AM EDT SUNDAY...

CURRENT FORECAST OF A VERY NICE SUNDAY IS ON TRACK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBS SHOW
THAT MORNING FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS HAS JUST ABOUT COMPLETELY
DISSIPATED WHILE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS PUSHING CIRRUS
INTO THE AREA...WHICH GUIDANCE KEEPS AROUND MOST OF THE DAY. TEMPS
ARE STARTING OFF QUITE COOL AND COMBINED WITH THE LOSS OF GOOD
DOWNSLOPING FLOW EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS WILL LIKELY MAKE FOR
MAX TEMPS JUST A HAIR LOWER THAN READINGS YESTERDAY. GENERALLY
LOOKING FOR UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 EAST OF THE RIDGE AND UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S WEST.

PREVIOUS AFD...

TONIGHT...STILL LOOKING AT A QUIET WX NIGHT WITH CALM/LIGHT
WINDS. THE FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH A COUPLE DAYS OR SO AGO MAY
SHIFT NWD WITH A SFC WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. NOT SEEING
ANY MOISTURE THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SCATTERING OF LOWER
CLOUDS TOWARD SOUTHSIDE VA AND NC PIEDMONT LATE TONIGHT BUT
MAJORITY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP THE CLOUDS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
OUR AREA...SO WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOWS AGAIN GOING
TO VARY FROM THE LOWER 50S DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO MID TO UPPER
50S REST OF THE MOUNTAINS...EXCEPT LOWER 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER
PEAKS OF SE WV AS ENOUGH FLOW TO KEEP IT MIXED. THE
PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS AND ROANOKE VALLEY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S. PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG EXPECTED AGAIN LATE IN THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO HOLD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE COUNTY THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE TROUGH WILL
BECOME LESS PRONOUNCED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK AS THE
CENTER PUSHES OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. REGARDLESS...THE PATTERN WILL
ALLOW US TO MAINTAIN A GENERAL WEST TO EAST UPPER LEVEL WINDFLOW FOR
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.

MONDAY WILL START DRY...BUT EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS TO PUSH
AGAINST THE WESTERN RIDGES DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE NOT
OPTIMISTIC THAT MUCH...IF ANY...OF THE RAINFALL WILL SURVIVE EAST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS THEY ENCOUNTER DRY AIR IN PLACE AND
DOWNSLOPE WINDFLOW. DOWNSLOPING AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE MID 80S MOST SPOTS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND AS HIGH AS THE MID 90S ACROSS THE
SOUTHSIDE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT...AND
SOME DISAGREEMENT REMAINS AS TO HOW FAR ACROSS OUR AREA THE FRONT
WILL SINK ON TUESDAY. THE CONSENSUS IS THAT THE FRONT WILL ADVANCE
TO NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER BY EVENING. AS SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460 DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THAT STATED...DO NOT EXPECT ANY STRONG RETURN OF
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND THEREFORE EXPECT CONVECTION TO
REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED AT BEST.

ATTENTION TURNS TO OUR WEST ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES APPROACH FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST. LATEST MODELS ARE FOCUSING ON ONE SUCH
DISTURBANCE...POTENTIALLY THE DECAYING REMNANTS OF A THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX RIDING UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE IN THE MODELS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS FOR TRACK...TIMING AND INTENSITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM EDT SUNDAY...

EAST-WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS ESTABLISHED OVER OR NEAR THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD AS ADDITIONAL
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVES AND/OR MESOSCALE VORTICITY CENTERS FROM
DECAYING OLD MIDWEST CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
ENERGY/SUPPORT TO MAINTAIN THREAT FOR DAILY SCATTERED CONVECTION.

STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT/POSITIONING OF EACH WAVE IN MAINLY ZONAL UPPER
FLOW WILL INFLUENCE DAILY POSITION OF DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...
EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER...AND EXTENT OF WARM OR COOL ADVECTION
DEPENDING ON POSITION RELATIVE TO FRONT.

HIGHEST THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THIS PERIOD APPEARS TO COME ON
FRIDAY...WHEN TWO OF THE MORE NOTABLE UPSTREAM WAVES ARRIVE...AND
THIS IS REFLECTED ACCORDINGLY IN GRIDS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.
OTHERWISE...A LOWER AND MORE GENERALIZED THREAT FOR DAILY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINTAINED INTO SATURDAY UNTIL REGIONAL/
MESOSCALE FEATURES BECOME BETTER RESOLVED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT SUNDAY...

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FIRST PORTION OF THE VALID PERIOD...THEN EXPECT SOME
RADIATIONAL FOG/STRATUS TO DEVELOP AFTER DARK. FOG/STRATUS WAS NOT
WIDESPREAD LAST NIGHT AND BELIEVE THE MOST SITES WILL GET BY WITH
A PERIOD OF MVFR TOWARD DAYBREAK...EXCEPT AT KLWB WHERE CONDITIONS
LOOK TO FAVOR TYPICAL LIFR DEVELOPMENT BY ABOUT 08Z. THERE ARE
ALSO SOME INDICATIONS IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS OF AN INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT SO WILL
INTRODUCE SOME SCATTERED MVFR CLOUDS WITH THE TEMPO FOR FOG.

ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF AFTER DAYBREAK TOMORROW FOLLOWED
BY SCT VFR CU. THE AREA WILL THEN BE GETTING SQUEEZED BY AN
APPROACHING FRONT FRONT THE NORTH AND A LOW MOVING UP THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS AND PUSHING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN OUR DIRECTION FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. BELIEVE ANY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE FEATURES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THIS VALID PERIOD SO WILL
KEEP TAFS DRY WITH NO MENTION OF A CIG...THROUGH A VFR BKN CIG IS
POSSIBLE VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT SATURDAY...

MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONT
WILL SET UP IN THE MID ATLANTIC WHICH COULD BRING A FEW SHRA/TSRA
BY TUESDAY...WITH PERHAPS A BIT MORE COVERAGE LATER WEDNESDAY AT
THIS POINT. THUS THE THREAT OF SUB-VFR REMAINS LOW UNTIL AROUND
MIDWEEK...EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL FOG POTENTIAL AT KLWB/KBCB EACH
MORNING BETWEEN 09-13Z.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...MBS/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF/WERT
AVIATION...MBS/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 021758
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
158 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
SINKS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...REACHING THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER BY
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 955 AM EDT SUNDAY...

CURRENT FORECAST OF A VERY NICE SUNDAY IS ON TRACK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBS SHOW
THAT MORNING FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS HAS JUST ABOUT COMPLETELY
DISSIPATED WHILE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS PUSHING CIRRUS
INTO THE AREA...WHICH GUIDANCE KEEPS AROUND MOST OF THE DAY. TEMPS
ARE STARTING OFF QUITE COOL AND COMBINED WITH THE LOSS OF GOOD
DOWNSLOPING FLOW EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS WILL LIKELY MAKE FOR
MAX TEMPS JUST A HAIR LOWER THAN READINGS YESTERDAY. GENERALLY
LOOKING FOR UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 EAST OF THE RIDGE AND UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S WEST.

PREVIOUS AFD...

TONIGHT...STILL LOOKING AT A QUIET WX NIGHT WITH CALM/LIGHT
WINDS. THE FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH A COUPLE DAYS OR SO AGO MAY
SHIFT NWD WITH A SFC WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. NOT SEEING
ANY MOISTURE THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SCATTERING OF LOWER
CLOUDS TOWARD SOUTHSIDE VA AND NC PIEDMONT LATE TONIGHT BUT
MAJORITY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP THE CLOUDS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
OUR AREA...SO WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOWS AGAIN GOING
TO VARY FROM THE LOWER 50S DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO MID TO UPPER
50S REST OF THE MOUNTAINS...EXCEPT LOWER 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER
PEAKS OF SE WV AS ENOUGH FLOW TO KEEP IT MIXED. THE
PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS AND ROANOKE VALLEY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S. PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG EXPECTED AGAIN LATE IN THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO HOLD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE COUNTY THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE TROUGH WILL
BECOME LESS PRONOUNCED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK AS THE
CENTER PUSHES OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. REGARDLESS...THE PATTERN WILL
ALLOW US TO MAINTAIN A GENERAL WEST TO EAST UPPER LEVEL WINDFLOW FOR
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.

MONDAY WILL START DRY...BUT EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS TO PUSH
AGAINST THE WESTERN RIDGES DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE NOT
OPTIMISTIC THAT MUCH...IF ANY...OF THE RAINFALL WILL SURVIVE EAST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS THEY ENCOUNTER DRY AIR IN PLACE AND
DOWNSLOPE WINDFLOW. DOWNSLOPING AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE MID 80S MOST SPOTS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND AS HIGH AS THE MID 90S ACROSS THE
SOUTHSIDE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT...AND
SOME DISAGREEMENT REMAINS AS TO HOW FAR ACROSS OUR AREA THE FRONT
WILL SINK ON TUESDAY. THE CONSENSUS IS THAT THE FRONT WILL ADVANCE
TO NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER BY EVENING. AS SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460 DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THAT STATED...DO NOT EXPECT ANY STRONG RETURN OF
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND THEREFORE EXPECT CONVECTION TO
REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED AT BEST.

ATTENTION TURNS TO OUR WEST ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES APPROACH FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST. LATEST MODELS ARE FOCUSING ON ONE SUCH
DISTURBANCE...POTENTIALLY THE DECAYING REMNANTS OF A THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX RIDING UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE IN THE MODELS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS FOR TRACK...TIMING AND INTENSITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM EDT SUNDAY...

EAST-WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS ESTABLISHED OVER OR NEAR THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD AS ADDITIONAL
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVES AND/OR MESOSCALE VORTICITY CENTERS FROM
DECAYING OLD MIDWEST CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
ENERGY/SUPPORT TO MAINTAIN THREAT FOR DAILY SCATTERED CONVECTION.

STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT/POSITIONING OF EACH WAVE IN MAINLY ZONAL UPPER
FLOW WILL INFLUENCE DAILY POSITION OF DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...
EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER...AND EXTENT OF WARM OR COOL ADVECTION
DEPENDING ON POSITION RELATIVE TO FRONT.

HIGHEST THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THIS PERIOD APPEARS TO COME ON
FRIDAY...WHEN TWO OF THE MORE NOTABLE UPSTREAM WAVES ARRIVE...AND
THIS IS REFLECTED ACCORDINGLY IN GRIDS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.
OTHERWISE...A LOWER AND MORE GENERALIZED THREAT FOR DAILY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINTAINED INTO SATURDAY UNTIL REGIONAL/
MESOSCALE FEATURES BECOME BETTER RESOLVED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT SUNDAY...

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FIRST PORTION OF THE VALID PERIOD...THEN EXPECT SOME
RADIATIONAL FOG/STRATUS TO DEVELOP AFTER DARK. FOG/STRATUS WAS NOT
WIDESPREAD LAST NIGHT AND BELIEVE THE MOST SITES WILL GET BY WITH
A PERIOD OF MVFR TOWARD DAYBREAK...EXCEPT AT KLWB WHERE CONDITIONS
LOOK TO FAVOR TYPICAL LIFR DEVELOPMENT BY ABOUT 08Z. THERE ARE
ALSO SOME INDICATIONS IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS OF AN INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT SO WILL
INTRODUCE SOME SCATTERED MVFR CLOUDS WITH THE TEMPO FOR FOG.

ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF AFTER DAYBREAK TOMORROW FOLLOWED
BY SCT VFR CU. THE AREA WILL THEN BE GETTING SQUEEZED BY AN
APPROACHING FRONT FRONT THE NORTH AND A LOW MOVING UP THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS AND PUSHING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN OUR DIRECTION FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. BELIEVE ANY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE FEATURES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THIS VALID PERIOD SO WILL
KEEP TAFS DRY WITH NO MENTION OF A CIG...THROUGH A VFR BKN CIG IS
POSSIBLE VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT SATURDAY...

MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONT
WILL SET UP IN THE MID ATLANTIC WHICH COULD BRING A FEW SHRA/TSRA
BY TUESDAY...WITH PERHAPS A BIT MORE COVERAGE LATER WEDNESDAY AT
THIS POINT. THUS THE THREAT OF SUB-VFR REMAINS LOW UNTIL AROUND
MIDWEEK...EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL FOG POTENTIAL AT KLWB/KBCB EACH
MORNING BETWEEN 09-13Z.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...MBS/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF/WERT
AVIATION...MBS/WP



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021755
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
155 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT
WEAK COOL FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BKN CI MOVG ACROSS THE FA ATTM SHOULD THIN THIS AFTRN AS HIGH PRS
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MEANWHILE...HIGH RES DATA SUGGESTS ISLTD
CONVECTION DVLPNG ALONG SEA BREEZES TDY AS FAR NORTH AS THE ERN
SHORE. THUS...KEPT THE ISLTD POPS ACROSS SERN VA/NE NC BUT ADDED
ISLTD POPS TO THE ERN SHORE AS WELL FOR A FEW HRS THIS AFTRN.
OTW...MSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS U80S-L90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOTHER MAINLY QUIET NIGHT WXWISE TONIGHT. COULD SEE SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG THE SE COASTAL PLAIN, BUT OVERALL EXPECT
A MAINLY CLEAR AND SLIGHTLY MILDER NIGHT WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS
65-70 (SOME POCKETS OF L60S POSSIBLE OVER THE PIEDMONT WEST OF
RIC).

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC FOR MUCH OF THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, SHARPENING THE EAST COAST TROUGH THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY AND ALLOWING THE FIRST IN A SERES OF UPPER SHORTWAVES
TO DROP SE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST LATER MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT COOL
FRONT TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION DURING THIS SAME PERIOD MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

GIVEN LOW TO MID LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND BEST FORCING WELL TO
OUR NORTH, APPEARS MOST OF THE AREA REMAINS DRY MONDAY.
MEANWHILE, ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE SE
COASTAL FRONT/SFC TROUGH MONDAY. WILL AGAIN CONFINE A SLIGHT CHC
POP TO SE THIRD OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTN/EVE. HIGHS 90-95 INLAND,
MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST.

UPPER LOW WILL EJECT EAST FROM QUEBEC TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA
TUESDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SCOOTING
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
TRANSITION TO A QUASI-ZONAL SETUP BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. HAVE A
SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POP IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY AFTN AND
EVENING, AS WEAK COOL FRONT SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALSO SLIDES BY JUST TO OUR N/NE, WITH
PW REMAINING LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD. 310-315K THETA SFCS POINT
TO "BEST" LIFT/MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
(NRN NECK/EASTERN SHORE), AND THUS HAVE GONE WITH LOW END CHC/30
POP IN THIS AREA, TAPERING BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER SOUTH.
ONLY SLIGHT CHC POP FOR WED, WITH QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCES MOVE
WEST TO EAST FROM THE LWR OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE REGION.
CONVECTION WOULD BE ISO TO WIDELY SCT, AND HENCE REMAINING IN 20%
RANGE FOR NOW. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
UP WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S.

SSW FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR INCREASING RH/DEWPOINT TEMPS...AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES TOP OUT ARND 100 EACH DAY THROUGH MIDWEEK
(HIGHEST WED).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH NIGHT/MORNG.
PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN CONUS WITH
TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC REGION. AS FOR
TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE LO/MID 90S THU TO MID/UPR 80S FRI
AND SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK SFC HI PRES WILL NUDGE IN FM THE W THIS AFTN. MEANWHILE...A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ALNG THE NC CST THIS AFTN INTO MON.
THIS BOUNDARY AND SEA BREEZE INTERACTION COULD PRODUCE ISLTD
SHOWERS OR TSTMS OVR SE VA (KORF) AND NE NC (KECG) THIS AFTN INTO
EARLY THIS EVENG. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS INTO
MON AFTN...WITH JUST SCTD CU/AC/CI AND WINDS TURNING FM THE NE TO
THE SSW.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FM THE NW MON NGT...THEN SLOWLY
DROPS ACRS THE REGION TUE INTO WED MORNG. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE
SML CHCS FOR MAINLY AFTN/EVENG SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK TROUGHING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL WASH OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. THE END RESULT WILL BE A VARIABLE WIND
DIRECTION AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-3 FT. MORE PROMINENT
SLY WINDS DEVELOP BY MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH TO THE NW-N AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SLOWLY MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WIND SPEEDS DURING MONDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10-15 KT BAY/RIVERS/SOUND AND 15-20 KT
OVER COASTAL WATERS. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SLY SURGE IS EXPECTED
FROM MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH LOW-END
SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 KT SHOULD BE
ANTICIPATED FOR ALL WATERS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT OVER
NRN COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT.
SCA FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE BAY AND AFOREMENTIONED NRN
COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY CURRITUCK SOUND. WAVES/SEAS SHOULD
BUILD TO 2-3 FT/3-4 FT RESPECTIVELY...UP TO 5 FT POSSIBLE FOR
NRN COASTAL WATERS OUT NEAR 20NM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK TROUGHING ALONG AND
JUST OFF THE COAST. EXPECT S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND
WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...BMD



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021755
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
155 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT
WEAK COOL FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BKN CI MOVG ACROSS THE FA ATTM SHOULD THIN THIS AFTRN AS HIGH PRS
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MEANWHILE...HIGH RES DATA SUGGESTS ISLTD
CONVECTION DVLPNG ALONG SEA BREEZES TDY AS FAR NORTH AS THE ERN
SHORE. THUS...KEPT THE ISLTD POPS ACROSS SERN VA/NE NC BUT ADDED
ISLTD POPS TO THE ERN SHORE AS WELL FOR A FEW HRS THIS AFTRN.
OTW...MSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS U80S-L90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOTHER MAINLY QUIET NIGHT WXWISE TONIGHT. COULD SEE SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG THE SE COASTAL PLAIN, BUT OVERALL EXPECT
A MAINLY CLEAR AND SLIGHTLY MILDER NIGHT WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS
65-70 (SOME POCKETS OF L60S POSSIBLE OVER THE PIEDMONT WEST OF
RIC).

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC FOR MUCH OF THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, SHARPENING THE EAST COAST TROUGH THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY AND ALLOWING THE FIRST IN A SERES OF UPPER SHORTWAVES
TO DROP SE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST LATER MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT COOL
FRONT TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION DURING THIS SAME PERIOD MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

GIVEN LOW TO MID LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND BEST FORCING WELL TO
OUR NORTH, APPEARS MOST OF THE AREA REMAINS DRY MONDAY.
MEANWHILE, ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE SE
COASTAL FRONT/SFC TROUGH MONDAY. WILL AGAIN CONFINE A SLIGHT CHC
POP TO SE THIRD OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTN/EVE. HIGHS 90-95 INLAND,
MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST.

UPPER LOW WILL EJECT EAST FROM QUEBEC TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA
TUESDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SCOOTING
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
TRANSITION TO A QUASI-ZONAL SETUP BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. HAVE A
SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POP IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY AFTN AND
EVENING, AS WEAK COOL FRONT SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALSO SLIDES BY JUST TO OUR N/NE, WITH
PW REMAINING LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD. 310-315K THETA SFCS POINT
TO "BEST" LIFT/MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
(NRN NECK/EASTERN SHORE), AND THUS HAVE GONE WITH LOW END CHC/30
POP IN THIS AREA, TAPERING BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER SOUTH.
ONLY SLIGHT CHC POP FOR WED, WITH QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCES MOVE
WEST TO EAST FROM THE LWR OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE REGION.
CONVECTION WOULD BE ISO TO WIDELY SCT, AND HENCE REMAINING IN 20%
RANGE FOR NOW. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
UP WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S.

SSW FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR INCREASING RH/DEWPOINT TEMPS...AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES TOP OUT ARND 100 EACH DAY THROUGH MIDWEEK
(HIGHEST WED).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH NIGHT/MORNG.
PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN CONUS WITH
TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC REGION. AS FOR
TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE LO/MID 90S THU TO MID/UPR 80S FRI
AND SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK SFC HI PRES WILL NUDGE IN FM THE W THIS AFTN. MEANWHILE...A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ALNG THE NC CST THIS AFTN INTO MON.
THIS BOUNDARY AND SEA BREEZE INTERACTION COULD PRODUCE ISLTD
SHOWERS OR TSTMS OVR SE VA (KORF) AND NE NC (KECG) THIS AFTN INTO
EARLY THIS EVENG. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS INTO
MON AFTN...WITH JUST SCTD CU/AC/CI AND WINDS TURNING FM THE NE TO
THE SSW.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FM THE NW MON NGT...THEN SLOWLY
DROPS ACRS THE REGION TUE INTO WED MORNG. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE
SML CHCS FOR MAINLY AFTN/EVENG SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK TROUGHING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL WASH OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. THE END RESULT WILL BE A VARIABLE WIND
DIRECTION AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-3 FT. MORE PROMINENT
SLY WINDS DEVELOP BY MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH TO THE NW-N AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SLOWLY MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WIND SPEEDS DURING MONDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10-15 KT BAY/RIVERS/SOUND AND 15-20 KT
OVER COASTAL WATERS. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SLY SURGE IS EXPECTED
FROM MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH LOW-END
SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 KT SHOULD BE
ANTICIPATED FOR ALL WATERS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT OVER
NRN COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT.
SCA FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE BAY AND AFOREMENTIONED NRN
COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY CURRITUCK SOUND. WAVES/SEAS SHOULD
BUILD TO 2-3 FT/3-4 FT RESPECTIVELY...UP TO 5 FT POSSIBLE FOR
NRN COASTAL WATERS OUT NEAR 20NM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK TROUGHING ALONG AND
JUST OFF THE COAST. EXPECT S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND
WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...BMD




000
FXUS61 KLWX 021359
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
959 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT OVERHEAD
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK WHILE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG
IT...BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY.
HOWEVER...A PESKY INVERSION HAS TRAPPED SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...RESULTING IN A MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK. SOME
GUIDANCE CLEARS THIS OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHILE OTHERS KEEP
THE CLOUDS AROUND MUCH OF THE DAY. INCREASED SKY COVER FOR THIS
MORNING AND MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AS A RESULT. WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 80S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT LOW 90S IN THE IMMEDIATE WASHINGTON
DC/BALTIMORE METRO. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF CLOUDS ARE
PERSISTENT ENOUGH...HIGHS MAY END UP A BIT LOWER THAN EXPECTED.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...SLIGHTLY MILDER OVER THE METRO CENTERS. SOME PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INLAND AND AWAY FROM THE METRO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME HOT. AFTERNOON READINGS WILL LIKELY REACH
THE 90S IN MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...LOW DEW POINTS SHOULD KEEP US
FROM REACHING HEAD ADVISORY LEVELS...WITH MOST DEW POINTS STAYING
WELL WITHIN THE 60S. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST VERY LATE IN THE DAY.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND IT
IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT OVERHEAD FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A
COUPLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND AND THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS WHERE FORCING MAY BE A BIT STRONGER ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
MIN TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S/60S IN THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE. IF SOME CLEARING OCCURS LATE...PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE A CONCERN INLAND AND AWAY FROM THE METRO.

THE STALLED BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA WILL BE WEAK TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...LITTLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE A DEWPOINT GRADIENT AND WITH
HIGHER DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY A COUPLE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO SOUTHERN MARYLAND. EVEN ACROSS THESE
AREAS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED/SCATTERED SINCE
THE BOUNDARY WILL BE WEAK. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARBY WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL SEPARATE UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER
CANADA FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS
INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE AREA IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THESE DISTURBANCES WILL
INTERACT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING OF THESE ARE UNCERTAIN THIS FAR
OUT...BUT GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
MAY BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN LATER
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AGAIN...TIMING THIS FAR OUT IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR TO PERSIST TODAY INTO MONDAY...WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE OF
REDUCED CIGS/VIS IN PATCHY FOG AT MRB/CHO. WINDS WILL INCREASE
OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS IN THE
10-15KT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP MONDAY EVENING AND PERSIST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND IT
WILL REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH THURSDAY. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE
DRY. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT WILL INCREASE
WITH SOUTHERLY CHANNELING ON MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE
NOW EXPECTED...AND SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED.

A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT NEAR THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT AND IT
WILL REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS TUESDAY. A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...INCREASING
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HIGHER DUE TO THE NEARLY-FULL MOON...BUT
ANOMALIES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT TIDAL FLOODING WILL NOT BE A THREAT
THROUGH TODAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT WILL
ELEVATE TIDAL ANOMALIES ON MONDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT NOT
EXPECTING MINOR FLOODING. THIS POSSIBILITY WILL REQUIRE MONITORING
HOWEVER.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL/RCM
NEAR TERM...RCM/KRW
SHORT TERM...BJL/RCM/KRW
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/RCM/KRW
MARINE...BJL/RCM/KRW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KRNK 021358
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
958 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
SINKS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...REACHING THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER BY
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 955 AM EDT SUNDAY...

CURRENT FORECAST OF A VERY NICE SUNDAY IS ON TRACK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBS SHOW
THAT MORNING FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS HAS JUST ABOUT COMPLETELY
DISSIPATED WHILE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS PUSHING CIRRUS
INTO THE AREA...WHICH GUIDANCE KEEPS AROUND MOST OF THE DAY. TEMPS
ARE STARTING OFF QUITE COOL AND COMBINED WITH THE LOSS OF GOOD
DOWNSLOPING FLOW EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS WILL LIKELY MAKE FOR
MAX TEMPS JUST A HAIR LOWER THAN READINGS YESTERDAY. GENERALLY
LOOKING FOR UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 EAST OF THE RIDGE AND UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S WEST.

PREVIOUS AFD...

TONIGHT...STILL LOOKING AT A QUIET WX NIGHT WITH CALM/LIGHT
WINDS. THE FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH A COUPLE DAYS OR SO AGO MAY
SHIFT NWD WITH A SFC WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. NOT SEEING
ANY MOISTURE THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SCATTERING OF LOWER
CLOUDS TOWARD SOUTHSIDE VA AND NC PIEDMONT LATE TONIGHT BUT
MAJORITY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP THE CLOUDS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
OUR AREA...SO WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOWS AGAIN GOING
TO VARY FROM THE LOWER 50S DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO MID TO UPPER
50S REST OF THE MOUNTAINS...EXCEPT LOWER 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER
PEAKS OF SE WV AS ENOUGH FLOW TO KEEP IT MIXED. THE
PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS AND ROANOKE VALLEY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S. PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG EXPECTED AGAIN LATE IN THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO HOLD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE COUNTY THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE TROUGH WILL
BECOME LESS PRONOUNCED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK AS THE
CENTER PUSHES OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. REGARDLESS...THE PATTERN WILL
ALLOW US TO MAINTAIN A GENERAL WEST TO EAST UPPER LEVEL WINDFLOW FOR
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.

MONDAY WILL START DRY...BUT EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS TO PUSH
AGAINST THE WESTERN RIDGES DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE NOT
OPTIMISTIC THAT MUCH...IF ANY...OF THE RAINFALL WILL SURVIVE EAST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS THEY ENCOUNTER DRY AIR IN PLACE AND
DOWNSLOPE WINDFLOW. DOWNSLOPING AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE MID 80S MOST SPOTS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND AS HIGH AS THE MID 90S ACROSS THE
SOUTHSIDE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT...AND
SOME DISAGREEMENT REMAINS AS TO HOW FAR ACROSS OUR AREA THE FRONT
WILL SINK ON TUESDAY. THE CONSENSUS IS THAT THE FRONT WILL ADVANCE
TO NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER BY EVENING. AS SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460 DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THAT STATED...DO NOT EXPECT ANY STRONG RETURN OF
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND THEREFORE EXPECT CONVECTION TO
REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED AT BEST.

ATTENTION TURNS TO OUR WEST ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES APPROACH FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST. LATEST MODELS ARE FOCUSING ON ONE SUCH
DISTURBANCE...POTENTIALLY THE DECAYING REMNANTS OF A THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX RIDING UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE IN THE MODELS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS FOR TRACK...TIMING AND INTENSITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM EDT SUNDAY...

EAST-WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS ESTABLISHED OVER OR NEAR THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD AS ADDITIONAL
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVES AND/OR MESOSCALE VORTICITY CENTERS FROM
DECAYING OLD MIDWEST CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
ENERGY/SUPPORT TO MAINTAIN THREAT FOR DAILY SCATTERED CONVECTION.

STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT/POSITIONING OF EACH WAVE IN MAINLY ZONAL UPPER
FLOW WILL INFLUENCE DAILY POSITION OF DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...
EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER...AND EXTENT OF WARM OR COOL ADVECTION
DEPENDING ON POSITION RELATIVE TO FRONT.

HIGHEST THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THIS PERIOD APPEARS TO COME ON
FRIDAY...WHEN TWO OF THE MORE NOTABLE UPSTREAM WAVES ARRIVE...AND
THIS IS REFLECTED ACCORDINGLY IN GRIDS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.
OTHERWISE...A LOWER AND MORE GENERALIZED THREAT FOR DAILY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINTAINED INTO SATURDAY UNTIL REGIONAL/
MESOSCALE FEATURES BECOME BETTER RESOLVED.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT SUNDAY...

EXPECT VFR TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WITH PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. MAY
SEE A LITTLE FOG AT LWB LATER SUNDAY NIGHT TAKING VSBYS TO IFR
LEVELS.



EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT SATURDAY...

MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONT
WILL SET UP IN THE MID ATLANTIC WHICH COULD BRING A FEW SHRA/TSRA
BY TUESDAY...WITH PERHAPS A BIT MORE COVERAGE LATER WEDNESDAY AT
THIS POINT. THUS THE THREAT OF SUB-VFR REMAINS LOW UNTIL AROUND
MIDWEEK...EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL FOG POTENTIAL AT KLWB/KBCB EACH
MORNING BETWEEN 09-13Z.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...MBS/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF/WERT
AVIATION...DS/JH/WP



000
FXUS61 KRNK 021358
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
958 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
SINKS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...REACHING THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER BY
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 955 AM EDT SUNDAY...

CURRENT FORECAST OF A VERY NICE SUNDAY IS ON TRACK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBS SHOW
THAT MORNING FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS HAS JUST ABOUT COMPLETELY
DISSIPATED WHILE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS PUSHING CIRRUS
INTO THE AREA...WHICH GUIDANCE KEEPS AROUND MOST OF THE DAY. TEMPS
ARE STARTING OFF QUITE COOL AND COMBINED WITH THE LOSS OF GOOD
DOWNSLOPING FLOW EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS WILL LIKELY MAKE FOR
MAX TEMPS JUST A HAIR LOWER THAN READINGS YESTERDAY. GENERALLY
LOOKING FOR UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 EAST OF THE RIDGE AND UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S WEST.

PREVIOUS AFD...

TONIGHT...STILL LOOKING AT A QUIET WX NIGHT WITH CALM/LIGHT
WINDS. THE FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH A COUPLE DAYS OR SO AGO MAY
SHIFT NWD WITH A SFC WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. NOT SEEING
ANY MOISTURE THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SCATTERING OF LOWER
CLOUDS TOWARD SOUTHSIDE VA AND NC PIEDMONT LATE TONIGHT BUT
MAJORITY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP THE CLOUDS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
OUR AREA...SO WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOWS AGAIN GOING
TO VARY FROM THE LOWER 50S DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO MID TO UPPER
50S REST OF THE MOUNTAINS...EXCEPT LOWER 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER
PEAKS OF SE WV AS ENOUGH FLOW TO KEEP IT MIXED. THE
PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS AND ROANOKE VALLEY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S. PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG EXPECTED AGAIN LATE IN THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO HOLD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE COUNTY THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE TROUGH WILL
BECOME LESS PRONOUNCED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK AS THE
CENTER PUSHES OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. REGARDLESS...THE PATTERN WILL
ALLOW US TO MAINTAIN A GENERAL WEST TO EAST UPPER LEVEL WINDFLOW FOR
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.

MONDAY WILL START DRY...BUT EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS TO PUSH
AGAINST THE WESTERN RIDGES DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE NOT
OPTIMISTIC THAT MUCH...IF ANY...OF THE RAINFALL WILL SURVIVE EAST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS THEY ENCOUNTER DRY AIR IN PLACE AND
DOWNSLOPE WINDFLOW. DOWNSLOPING AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE MID 80S MOST SPOTS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND AS HIGH AS THE MID 90S ACROSS THE
SOUTHSIDE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT...AND
SOME DISAGREEMENT REMAINS AS TO HOW FAR ACROSS OUR AREA THE FRONT
WILL SINK ON TUESDAY. THE CONSENSUS IS THAT THE FRONT WILL ADVANCE
TO NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER BY EVENING. AS SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460 DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THAT STATED...DO NOT EXPECT ANY STRONG RETURN OF
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND THEREFORE EXPECT CONVECTION TO
REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED AT BEST.

ATTENTION TURNS TO OUR WEST ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES APPROACH FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST. LATEST MODELS ARE FOCUSING ON ONE SUCH
DISTURBANCE...POTENTIALLY THE DECAYING REMNANTS OF A THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX RIDING UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE IN THE MODELS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS FOR TRACK...TIMING AND INTENSITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM EDT SUNDAY...

EAST-WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS ESTABLISHED OVER OR NEAR THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD AS ADDITIONAL
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVES AND/OR MESOSCALE VORTICITY CENTERS FROM
DECAYING OLD MIDWEST CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
ENERGY/SUPPORT TO MAINTAIN THREAT FOR DAILY SCATTERED CONVECTION.

STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT/POSITIONING OF EACH WAVE IN MAINLY ZONAL UPPER
FLOW WILL INFLUENCE DAILY POSITION OF DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...
EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER...AND EXTENT OF WARM OR COOL ADVECTION
DEPENDING ON POSITION RELATIVE TO FRONT.

HIGHEST THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THIS PERIOD APPEARS TO COME ON
FRIDAY...WHEN TWO OF THE MORE NOTABLE UPSTREAM WAVES ARRIVE...AND
THIS IS REFLECTED ACCORDINGLY IN GRIDS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.
OTHERWISE...A LOWER AND MORE GENERALIZED THREAT FOR DAILY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINTAINED INTO SATURDAY UNTIL REGIONAL/
MESOSCALE FEATURES BECOME BETTER RESOLVED.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT SUNDAY...

EXPECT VFR TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WITH PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. MAY
SEE A LITTLE FOG AT LWB LATER SUNDAY NIGHT TAKING VSBYS TO IFR
LEVELS.



EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT SATURDAY...

MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONT
WILL SET UP IN THE MID ATLANTIC WHICH COULD BRING A FEW SHRA/TSRA
BY TUESDAY...WITH PERHAPS A BIT MORE COVERAGE LATER WEDNESDAY AT
THIS POINT. THUS THE THREAT OF SUB-VFR REMAINS LOW UNTIL AROUND
MIDWEEK...EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL FOG POTENTIAL AT KLWB/KBCB EACH
MORNING BETWEEN 09-13Z.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...MBS/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF/WERT
AVIATION...DS/JH/WP




000
FXUS61 KLWX 021357
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
957 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT OVERHEAD
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK WHILE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG
IT...BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY.
HOWEVER...A PESKY INVERSION HAS TRAPPED SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...RESULTING IN A MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK. SOME
GUIDANCE CLEARS THIS OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHILE OTHERS KEEP
THE CLOUDS AROUND MUCH OF THE DAY. INCREASED SKY COVER FOR THIS
MORNING AND MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AS A RESULT. WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 80S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT LOW 90S IN THE IMMEDIATE WASHINGTON
DC/BALTIMORE METRO. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF CLOUDS ARE
PERSISTENT ENOUGH...HIGHS MAY END UP A BIT LOWER THAN EXPECTED.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...SLIGHTLY MILDER OVER THE METRO CENTERS. SOME PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INLAND AND AWAY FROM THE METRO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME HOT. AFTERNOON READINGS WILL LIKELY REACH
THE 90S IN MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...LOW DEW POINTS SHOULD KEEP US
FROM REACHING HEAD ADVISORY LEVELS...WITH MOST DEW POINTS STAYING
WELL WITHIN THE 60S. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST VERY LATE IN THE DAY.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND IT
IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT OVERHEAD FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A
COUPLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND AND THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS WHERE FORCING MAY BE A BIT STRONGER ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
MIN TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S/60S IN THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE. IF SOME CLEARING OCCURS LATE...PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE A CONCERN INLAND AND AWAY FROM THE METRO.

THE STALLED BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA WILL BE WEAK TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...LITTLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE A DEWPOINT GRADIENT AND WITH
HIGHER DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY A COUPLE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO SOUTHERN MARYLAND. EVEN ACROSS THESE
AREAS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED/SCATTERED SINCE
THE BOUNDARY WILL BE WEAK. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARBY WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL SEPARATE UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER
CANADA FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS
INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE AREA IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THESE DISTURBANCES WILL
INTERACT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING OF THESE ARE UNCERTAIN THIS FAR
OUT...BUT GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
MAY BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN LATER
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AGAIN...TIMING THIS FAR OUT IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR TO PERSIST TODAY INTO MONDAY...WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE OF
REDUCED CIGS/VIS IN PATCHY FOG AT MRB/CHO. WINDS WILL INCREASE
OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS IN THE
10-15KT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP MONDAY EVENING AND PERSIST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND IT
WILL REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH THURSDAY. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE
DRY. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT WILL INCREASE
WITH SOUTHERLY CHANNELING ON MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE
NOW EXPECTED...AND SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED.

A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT NEAR THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT AND IT
WILL REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HIGHER DUE TO THE NEARLY-FULL MOON...BUT
ANOMALIES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT TIDAL FLOODING WILL NOT BE A THREAT
THROUGH TODAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT WILL
ELEVATE TIDAL ANOMALIES ON MONDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT NOT
EXPECTING MINOR FLOODING. THIS POSSIBILITY WILL REQUIRE MONITORING
HOWEVER.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL/RCM
NEAR TERM...RCM/KRW
SHORT TERM...BJL/RCM/KRW
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/RCM/KRW
MARINE...BJL/RCM/KRW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KLWX 021357
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
957 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT OVERHEAD
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK WHILE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG
IT...BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY.
HOWEVER...A PESKY INVERSION HAS TRAPPED SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...RESULTING IN A MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK. SOME
GUIDANCE CLEARS THIS OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHILE OTHERS KEEP
THE CLOUDS AROUND MUCH OF THE DAY. INCREASED SKY COVER FOR THIS
MORNING AND MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AS A RESULT. WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 80S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT LOW 90S IN THE IMMEDIATE WASHINGTON
DC/BALTIMORE METRO. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF CLOUDS ARE
PERSISTENT ENOUGH...HIGHS MAY END UP A BIT LOWER THAN EXPECTED.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...SLIGHTLY MILDER OVER THE METRO CENTERS. SOME PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INLAND AND AWAY FROM THE METRO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME HOT. AFTERNOON READINGS WILL LIKELY REACH
THE 90S IN MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...LOW DEW POINTS SHOULD KEEP US
FROM REACHING HEAD ADVISORY LEVELS...WITH MOST DEW POINTS STAYING
WELL WITHIN THE 60S. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST VERY LATE IN THE DAY.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND IT
IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT OVERHEAD FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A
COUPLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND AND THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS WHERE FORCING MAY BE A BIT STRONGER ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
MIN TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S/60S IN THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE. IF SOME CLEARING OCCURS LATE...PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE A CONCERN INLAND AND AWAY FROM THE METRO.

THE STALLED BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA WILL BE WEAK TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...LITTLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE A DEWPOINT GRADIENT AND WITH
HIGHER DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY A COUPLE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO SOUTHERN MARYLAND. EVEN ACROSS THESE
AREAS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED/SCATTERED SINCE
THE BOUNDARY WILL BE WEAK. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARBY WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL SEPARATE UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER
CANADA FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS
INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE AREA IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THESE DISTURBANCES WILL
INTERACT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING OF THESE ARE UNCERTAIN THIS FAR
OUT...BUT GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
MAY BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN LATER
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AGAIN...TIMING THIS FAR OUT IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR TO PERSIST TODAY INTO MONDAY...WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE OF
REDUCED CIGS/VIS IN PATCHY FOG AT MRB/CHO. WINDS WILL INCREASE
OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS IN THE
10-15KT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP MONDAY EVENING AND PERSIST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND IT
WILL REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH THURSDAY. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE
DRY. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT WILL INCREASE
WITH SOUTHERLY CHANNELING ON MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE
NOW EXPECTED...AND SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED.

A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT NEAR THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT AND IT
WILL REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HIGHER DUE TO THE NEARLY-FULL MOON...BUT
ANOMALIES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT TIDAL FLOODING WILL NOT BE A THREAT
THROUGH TODAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT WILL
ELEVATE TIDAL ANOMALIES ON MONDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT NOT
EXPECTING MINOR FLOODING. THIS POSSIBILITY WILL REQUIRE MONITORING
HOWEVER.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL/RCM
NEAR TERM...RCM/KRW
SHORT TERM...BJL/RCM/KRW
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/RCM/KRW
MARINE...BJL/RCM/KRW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KLWX 021353
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
953 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT OVERHEAD
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK WHILE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG
IT...BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY.
HOWEVER...A PESKY INVERSION HAS TRAPPED SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...RESULTING IN A MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK. SOME
GUIDANCE CLEARS THIS OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHILE OTHERS KEEP
THE CLOUDS AROUND MUCH OF THE DAY. INCREASED SKY COVER FOR THIS
MORNING AND MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AS A RESULT. WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 80S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT LOW 90S IN THE IMMEDIATE WASHINGTON
DC/BALTIMORE METRO. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF CLOUDS ARE
PERSISTENT ENOUGH...HIGHS MAY END UP A BIT LOWER THAN EXPECTED.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...SLIGHTLY MILDER OVER THE METRO CENTERS. SOME PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INLAND AND AWAY FROM THE METRO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BECOME HOT. AFTERNOON READINGS WILL LIKELY REACH THE 90S IN
MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...LOW DEW POINTS SHOULD KEEP US FROM REACHING
HEAD ADVISORY LEVELS...WITH MOST DEW POINTS STAYING WELL WITHIN
THE 60S. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST VERY LATE IN THE DAY.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND IT
IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT OVERHEAD FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A
COUPLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND AND THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS WHERE FORCING MAY BE A BIT STRONGER ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
MIN TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S/60S IN THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE. IF SOME CLEARING OCCURS LATE...PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE A CONCERN INLAND AND AWAY FROM THE METRO.

THE STALLED BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA WILL BE WEAK TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...LITTLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE A DEWPOINT GRADIENT AND WITH
HIGHER DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY A COUPLE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO SOUTHERN MARYLAND. EVEN ACROSS THESE
AREAS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED/SCATTERED SINCE
THE BOUNDARY WILL BE WEAK. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARBY WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL SEPARATE UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER
CANADA FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS
INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE AREA IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THESE DISTURBANCES WILL
INTERACT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING OF THESE ARE UNCERTAIN THIS FAR
OUT...BUT GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
MAY BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN LATER
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AGAIN...TIMING THIS FAR OUT IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR TO PERSIST TODAY INTO MONDAY...WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE OF
REDUCED CIGS/VIS IN PATCHY FOG AT MRB/CHO. WINDS WILL INCREASE
OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS IN THE
10-15KT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP MONDAY EVENING AND PERSIST
INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND IT
WILL REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH THURSDAY. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE
DRY. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT WILL INCREASE
WITH SOUTHERLY CHANNELING ON MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE
NOW EXPECTED...AND SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED.

A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT NEAR THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT AND IT
WILL REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HIGHER DUE TO THE NEARLY-FULL MOON...BUT
ANOMALIES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT TIDAL FLOODING WILL NOT BE A THREAT
THROUGH TODAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT WILL
ELEVATE TIDAL ANOMALIES ON MONDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT NOT
EXPECTING MINOR FLOODING. THIS POSSIBILITY WILL REQUIRE MONITORING
HOWEVER.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...KRW/RCM
SHORT TERM...BJL/KRW/RCM
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/KRW/RCM
MARINE...BJL/KRW/RCM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021351
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
951 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT
WEAK COOL FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BKN CI MOVG ACROSS THE FA ATTM SHOULD THIN THIS AFTRN AS HIGH PRS
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MEANWHILE...HIGH RES DATA SUGGESTS ISLTD
CONVECTION DVLPNG ALONG SEA BREEZES TDY AS FAR NORTH AS THE ERN
SHORE. THUS...KEPT THE ISLTD POPS ACROSS SERN VA/NE NC BUT ADDED
ISLTD POPS TO THE ERN SHORE AS WELL FOR A FEW HRS THIS AFTRN.
OTW...MSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS U80S-L90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOTHER MAINLY QUIET NIGHT WXWISE TONIGHT. COULD SEE SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG THE SE COASTAL PLAIN, BUT OVERALL EXPECT
A MAINLY CLEAR AND SLIGHTLY MILDER NIGHT WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS
65-70 (SOME POCKETS OF L60S POSSIBLE OVER THE PIEDMONT WEST OF
RIC).

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC FOR MUCH OF THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, SHARPENING THE EAST COAST TROUGH THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY AND ALLOWING THE FIRST IN A SERES OF UPPER SHORTWAVES
TO DROP SE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST LATER MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT COOL
FRONT TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION DURING THIS SAME PERIOD MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

GIVEN LOW TO MID LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND BEST FORCING WELL TO
OUR NORTH, APPEARS MOST OF THE AREA REMAINS DRY MONDAY.
MEANWHILE, ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE SE
COASTAL FRONT/SFC TROUGH MONDAY. WILL AGAIN CONFINE A SLIGHT CHC
POP TO SE THIRD OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTN/EVE. HIGHS 90-95 INLAND,
MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST.

UPPER LOW WILL EJECT EAST FROM QUEBEC TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA
TUESDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SCOOTING
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
TRANSITION TO A QUASI-ZONAL SETUP BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. HAVE A
SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POP IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY AFTN AND
EVENING, AS WEAK COOL FRONT SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALSO SLIDES BY JUST TO OUR N/NE, WITH
PW REMAINING LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD. 310-315K THETA SFCS POINT
TO "BEST" LIFT/MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
(NRN NECK/EASTERN SHORE), AND THUS HAVE GONE WITH LOW END CHC/30
POP IN THIS AREA, TAPERING BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER SOUTH.
ONLY SLIGHT CHC POP FOR WED, WITH QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCES MOVE
WEST TO EAST FROM THE LWR OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE REGION.
CONVECTION WOULD BE ISO TO WIDELY SCT, AND HENCE REMAINING IN 20%
RANGE FOR NOW. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
UP WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S.

SSW FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR INCREASING RH/DEWPOINT TEMPS...AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES TOP OUT ARND 100 EACH DAY THROUGH MIDWEEK
(HIGHEST WED).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH NIGHT/MORNG.
PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN CONUS WITH
TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC REGION. AS FOR
TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE LO/MID 90S THU TO MID/UPR 80S FRI
AND SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK TROUGHING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL WASH OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE NC COAST AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTN
THUNDERSTORMS TO KECG AND CIGS AROUND 6 KFT AGL. THE REST OF THE
TAF SITES WILL MAINTAIN A SCT CLOUD DECK BTWN 6-9 KFT AGL TODAY.
SKIES CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
WX PATTERN.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY AS
WEAK LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ALTHOUGH
THE TWO FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE INTO ONE ELONGATED TROUGH
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...BEST SHOWER CHANCES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK TROUGHING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL WASH OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. THE END RESULT WILL BE A VARIABLE WIND
DIRECTION AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-3 FT. MORE PROMINENT
SLY WINDS DEVELOP BY MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH TO THE NW-N AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SLOWLY MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WIND SPEEDS DURING MONDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10-15 KT BAY/RIVERS/SOUND AND 15-20 KT
OVER COASTAL WATERS. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SLY SURGE IS EXPECTED
FROM MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH LOW-END
SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 KT SHOULD BE
ANTICIPATED FOR ALL WATERS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT OVER
NRN COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT.
SCA FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE BAY AND AFOREMENTIONED NRN
COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY CURRITUCK SOUND. WAVES/SEAS SHOULD
BUILD TO 2-3 FT/3-4 FT RESPECTIVELY...UP TO 5 FT POSSIBLE FOR
NRN COASTAL WATERS OUT NEAR 20NM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK TROUGHING ALONG AND
JUST OFF THE COAST. EXPECT S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND
WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021351
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
951 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT
WEAK COOL FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BKN CI MOVG ACROSS THE FA ATTM SHOULD THIN THIS AFTRN AS HIGH PRS
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MEANWHILE...HIGH RES DATA SUGGESTS ISLTD
CONVECTION DVLPNG ALONG SEA BREEZES TDY AS FAR NORTH AS THE ERN
SHORE. THUS...KEPT THE ISLTD POPS ACROSS SERN VA/NE NC BUT ADDED
ISLTD POPS TO THE ERN SHORE AS WELL FOR A FEW HRS THIS AFTRN.
OTW...MSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS U80S-L90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOTHER MAINLY QUIET NIGHT WXWISE TONIGHT. COULD SEE SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG THE SE COASTAL PLAIN, BUT OVERALL EXPECT
A MAINLY CLEAR AND SLIGHTLY MILDER NIGHT WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS
65-70 (SOME POCKETS OF L60S POSSIBLE OVER THE PIEDMONT WEST OF
RIC).

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC FOR MUCH OF THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, SHARPENING THE EAST COAST TROUGH THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY AND ALLOWING THE FIRST IN A SERES OF UPPER SHORTWAVES
TO DROP SE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST LATER MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT COOL
FRONT TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION DURING THIS SAME PERIOD MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

GIVEN LOW TO MID LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND BEST FORCING WELL TO
OUR NORTH, APPEARS MOST OF THE AREA REMAINS DRY MONDAY.
MEANWHILE, ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE SE
COASTAL FRONT/SFC TROUGH MONDAY. WILL AGAIN CONFINE A SLIGHT CHC
POP TO SE THIRD OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTN/EVE. HIGHS 90-95 INLAND,
MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST.

UPPER LOW WILL EJECT EAST FROM QUEBEC TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA
TUESDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SCOOTING
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
TRANSITION TO A QUASI-ZONAL SETUP BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. HAVE A
SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POP IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY AFTN AND
EVENING, AS WEAK COOL FRONT SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALSO SLIDES BY JUST TO OUR N/NE, WITH
PW REMAINING LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD. 310-315K THETA SFCS POINT
TO "BEST" LIFT/MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
(NRN NECK/EASTERN SHORE), AND THUS HAVE GONE WITH LOW END CHC/30
POP IN THIS AREA, TAPERING BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER SOUTH.
ONLY SLIGHT CHC POP FOR WED, WITH QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCES MOVE
WEST TO EAST FROM THE LWR OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE REGION.
CONVECTION WOULD BE ISO TO WIDELY SCT, AND HENCE REMAINING IN 20%
RANGE FOR NOW. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
UP WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S.

SSW FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR INCREASING RH/DEWPOINT TEMPS...AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES TOP OUT ARND 100 EACH DAY THROUGH MIDWEEK
(HIGHEST WED).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH NIGHT/MORNG.
PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN CONUS WITH
TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC REGION. AS FOR
TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE LO/MID 90S THU TO MID/UPR 80S FRI
AND SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK TROUGHING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL WASH OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE NC COAST AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTN
THUNDERSTORMS TO KECG AND CIGS AROUND 6 KFT AGL. THE REST OF THE
TAF SITES WILL MAINTAIN A SCT CLOUD DECK BTWN 6-9 KFT AGL TODAY.
SKIES CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
WX PATTERN.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY AS
WEAK LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ALTHOUGH
THE TWO FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE INTO ONE ELONGATED TROUGH
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...BEST SHOWER CHANCES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK TROUGHING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL WASH OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. THE END RESULT WILL BE A VARIABLE WIND
DIRECTION AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-3 FT. MORE PROMINENT
SLY WINDS DEVELOP BY MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH TO THE NW-N AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SLOWLY MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WIND SPEEDS DURING MONDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10-15 KT BAY/RIVERS/SOUND AND 15-20 KT
OVER COASTAL WATERS. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SLY SURGE IS EXPECTED
FROM MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH LOW-END
SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 KT SHOULD BE
ANTICIPATED FOR ALL WATERS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT OVER
NRN COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT.
SCA FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE BAY AND AFOREMENTIONED NRN
COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY CURRITUCK SOUND. WAVES/SEAS SHOULD
BUILD TO 2-3 FT/3-4 FT RESPECTIVELY...UP TO 5 FT POSSIBLE FOR
NRN COASTAL WATERS OUT NEAR 20NM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK TROUGHING ALONG AND
JUST OFF THE COAST. EXPECT S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND
WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021351
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
951 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT
WEAK COOL FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BKN CI MOVG ACROSS THE FA ATTM SHOULD THIN THIS AFTRN AS HIGH PRS
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MEANWHILE...HIGH RES DATA SUGGESTS ISLTD
CONVECTION DVLPNG ALONG SEA BREEZES TDY AS FAR NORTH AS THE ERN
SHORE. THUS...KEPT THE ISLTD POPS ACROSS SERN VA/NE NC BUT ADDED
ISLTD POPS TO THE ERN SHORE AS WELL FOR A FEW HRS THIS AFTRN.
OTW...MSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS U80S-L90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOTHER MAINLY QUIET NIGHT WXWISE TONIGHT. COULD SEE SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG THE SE COASTAL PLAIN, BUT OVERALL EXPECT
A MAINLY CLEAR AND SLIGHTLY MILDER NIGHT WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS
65-70 (SOME POCKETS OF L60S POSSIBLE OVER THE PIEDMONT WEST OF
RIC).

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC FOR MUCH OF THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, SHARPENING THE EAST COAST TROUGH THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY AND ALLOWING THE FIRST IN A SERES OF UPPER SHORTWAVES
TO DROP SE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST LATER MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT COOL
FRONT TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION DURING THIS SAME PERIOD MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

GIVEN LOW TO MID LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND BEST FORCING WELL TO
OUR NORTH, APPEARS MOST OF THE AREA REMAINS DRY MONDAY.
MEANWHILE, ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE SE
COASTAL FRONT/SFC TROUGH MONDAY. WILL AGAIN CONFINE A SLIGHT CHC
POP TO SE THIRD OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTN/EVE. HIGHS 90-95 INLAND,
MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST.

UPPER LOW WILL EJECT EAST FROM QUEBEC TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA
TUESDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SCOOTING
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
TRANSITION TO A QUASI-ZONAL SETUP BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. HAVE A
SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POP IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY AFTN AND
EVENING, AS WEAK COOL FRONT SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALSO SLIDES BY JUST TO OUR N/NE, WITH
PW REMAINING LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD. 310-315K THETA SFCS POINT
TO "BEST" LIFT/MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
(NRN NECK/EASTERN SHORE), AND THUS HAVE GONE WITH LOW END CHC/30
POP IN THIS AREA, TAPERING BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER SOUTH.
ONLY SLIGHT CHC POP FOR WED, WITH QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCES MOVE
WEST TO EAST FROM THE LWR OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE REGION.
CONVECTION WOULD BE ISO TO WIDELY SCT, AND HENCE REMAINING IN 20%
RANGE FOR NOW. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
UP WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S.

SSW FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR INCREASING RH/DEWPOINT TEMPS...AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES TOP OUT ARND 100 EACH DAY THROUGH MIDWEEK
(HIGHEST WED).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH NIGHT/MORNG.
PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN CONUS WITH
TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC REGION. AS FOR
TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE LO/MID 90S THU TO MID/UPR 80S FRI
AND SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK TROUGHING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL WASH OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE NC COAST AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTN
THUNDERSTORMS TO KECG AND CIGS AROUND 6 KFT AGL. THE REST OF THE
TAF SITES WILL MAINTAIN A SCT CLOUD DECK BTWN 6-9 KFT AGL TODAY.
SKIES CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
WX PATTERN.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY AS
WEAK LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ALTHOUGH
THE TWO FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE INTO ONE ELONGATED TROUGH
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...BEST SHOWER CHANCES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK TROUGHING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL WASH OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. THE END RESULT WILL BE A VARIABLE WIND
DIRECTION AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-3 FT. MORE PROMINENT
SLY WINDS DEVELOP BY MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH TO THE NW-N AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SLOWLY MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WIND SPEEDS DURING MONDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10-15 KT BAY/RIVERS/SOUND AND 15-20 KT
OVER COASTAL WATERS. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SLY SURGE IS EXPECTED
FROM MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH LOW-END
SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 KT SHOULD BE
ANTICIPATED FOR ALL WATERS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT OVER
NRN COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT.
SCA FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE BAY AND AFOREMENTIONED NRN
COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY CURRITUCK SOUND. WAVES/SEAS SHOULD
BUILD TO 2-3 FT/3-4 FT RESPECTIVELY...UP TO 5 FT POSSIBLE FOR
NRN COASTAL WATERS OUT NEAR 20NM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK TROUGHING ALONG AND
JUST OFF THE COAST. EXPECT S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND
WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021351
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
951 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT
WEAK COOL FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BKN CI MOVG ACROSS THE FA ATTM SHOULD THIN THIS AFTRN AS HIGH PRS
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MEANWHILE...HIGH RES DATA SUGGESTS ISLTD
CONVECTION DVLPNG ALONG SEA BREEZES TDY AS FAR NORTH AS THE ERN
SHORE. THUS...KEPT THE ISLTD POPS ACROSS SERN VA/NE NC BUT ADDED
ISLTD POPS TO THE ERN SHORE AS WELL FOR A FEW HRS THIS AFTRN.
OTW...MSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS U80S-L90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOTHER MAINLY QUIET NIGHT WXWISE TONIGHT. COULD SEE SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG THE SE COASTAL PLAIN, BUT OVERALL EXPECT
A MAINLY CLEAR AND SLIGHTLY MILDER NIGHT WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS
65-70 (SOME POCKETS OF L60S POSSIBLE OVER THE PIEDMONT WEST OF
RIC).

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC FOR MUCH OF THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, SHARPENING THE EAST COAST TROUGH THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY AND ALLOWING THE FIRST IN A SERES OF UPPER SHORTWAVES
TO DROP SE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST LATER MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT COOL
FRONT TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION DURING THIS SAME PERIOD MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

GIVEN LOW TO MID LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND BEST FORCING WELL TO
OUR NORTH, APPEARS MOST OF THE AREA REMAINS DRY MONDAY.
MEANWHILE, ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE SE
COASTAL FRONT/SFC TROUGH MONDAY. WILL AGAIN CONFINE A SLIGHT CHC
POP TO SE THIRD OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTN/EVE. HIGHS 90-95 INLAND,
MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST.

UPPER LOW WILL EJECT EAST FROM QUEBEC TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA
TUESDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SCOOTING
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
TRANSITION TO A QUASI-ZONAL SETUP BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. HAVE A
SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POP IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY AFTN AND
EVENING, AS WEAK COOL FRONT SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALSO SLIDES BY JUST TO OUR N/NE, WITH
PW REMAINING LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD. 310-315K THETA SFCS POINT
TO "BEST" LIFT/MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
(NRN NECK/EASTERN SHORE), AND THUS HAVE GONE WITH LOW END CHC/30
POP IN THIS AREA, TAPERING BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER SOUTH.
ONLY SLIGHT CHC POP FOR WED, WITH QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCES MOVE
WEST TO EAST FROM THE LWR OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE REGION.
CONVECTION WOULD BE ISO TO WIDELY SCT, AND HENCE REMAINING IN 20%
RANGE FOR NOW. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
UP WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S.

SSW FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR INCREASING RH/DEWPOINT TEMPS...AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES TOP OUT ARND 100 EACH DAY THROUGH MIDWEEK
(HIGHEST WED).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH NIGHT/MORNG.
PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN CONUS WITH
TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC REGION. AS FOR
TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE LO/MID 90S THU TO MID/UPR 80S FRI
AND SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK TROUGHING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL WASH OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE NC COAST AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTN
THUNDERSTORMS TO KECG AND CIGS AROUND 6 KFT AGL. THE REST OF THE
TAF SITES WILL MAINTAIN A SCT CLOUD DECK BTWN 6-9 KFT AGL TODAY.
SKIES CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
WX PATTERN.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY AS
WEAK LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ALTHOUGH
THE TWO FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE INTO ONE ELONGATED TROUGH
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...BEST SHOWER CHANCES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK TROUGHING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL WASH OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. THE END RESULT WILL BE A VARIABLE WIND
DIRECTION AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-3 FT. MORE PROMINENT
SLY WINDS DEVELOP BY MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH TO THE NW-N AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SLOWLY MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WIND SPEEDS DURING MONDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10-15 KT BAY/RIVERS/SOUND AND 15-20 KT
OVER COASTAL WATERS. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SLY SURGE IS EXPECTED
FROM MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH LOW-END
SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 KT SHOULD BE
ANTICIPATED FOR ALL WATERS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT OVER
NRN COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT.
SCA FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE BAY AND AFOREMENTIONED NRN
COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY CURRITUCK SOUND. WAVES/SEAS SHOULD
BUILD TO 2-3 FT/3-4 FT RESPECTIVELY...UP TO 5 FT POSSIBLE FOR
NRN COASTAL WATERS OUT NEAR 20NM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK TROUGHING ALONG AND
JUST OFF THE COAST. EXPECT S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND
WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD



000
FXUS61 KRNK 021125
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
725 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
SINKS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...REACHING THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER BY
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 302 AM EDT SUNDAY...

FORECAST THIS PERIOD STILL CENTERS AROUND UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. FOR OUR AREA WILL SEE DRY WEATHER AGAIN DAY AND
WARM...HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...TO MID 80S VALLEYS...AND UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S PIEDMONT
INTO THE ROANOKE/LEXINGTON VA CORRIDOR.

THERE IS A COUPLE OF PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ALONG THE
TROUGH ALLOWING FOR CIRRUS. EXPECT TO SEE THIS STREAK OF CIRRUS
TODAY THOUGH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BE THE RULE.

TONIGHT...STILL LOOKING AT A QUIET WX NIGHT WITH CALM/LIGHT WINDS.
THE FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH A COUPLE DAYS OR SO AGO MAY SHIFT NWD
WITH A SFC WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. NOT SEEING ANY MOISTURE
THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SCATTERING OF LOWER CLOUDS TOWARD
SOUTHSIDE VA AND NC PIEDMONT LATE TONIGHT BUT MAJORITY OF MODEL
SOLUTIONS KEEP THE CLOUDS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA...SO WILL
MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOWS AGAIN GOING TO VARY FROM THE LOWER
50S DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO MID TO UPPER 50S REST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...EXCEPT LOWER 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER PEAKS OF SE WV AS
ENOUGH FLOW TO KEEP IT MIXED. THE PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS AND ROANOKE
VALLEY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG
EXPECTED AGAIN LATE IN THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO HOLD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE COUNTY THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE TROUGH WILL
BECOME LESS PRONOUNCED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK AS THE
CENTER PUSHES OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. REGARDLESS...THE PATTERN WILL
ALLOW US TO MAINTAIN A GENERAL WEST TO EAST UPPER LEVEL WINDFLOW FOR
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.

MONDAY WILL START DRY...BUT EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS TO PUSH
AGAINST THE WESTERN RIDGES DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE NOT
OPTIMISTIC THAT MUCH...IF ANY...OF THE RAINFALL WILL SURVIVE EAST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS THEY ENCOUNTER DRY AIR IN PLACE AND
DOWNSLOPE WINDFLOW. DOWNSLOPING AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE MID 80S MOST SPOTS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND AS HIGH AS THE MID 90S ACROSS THE
SOUTHSIDE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT...AND
SOME DISAGREEMENT REMAINS AS TO HOW FAR ACROSS OUR AREA THE FRONT
WILL SINK ON TUESDAY. THE CONSENSUS IS THAT THE FRONT WILL ADVANCE
TO NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER BY EVENING. AS SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460 DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THAT STATED...DO NOT EXPECT ANY STRONG RETURN OF
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND THEREFORE EXPECT CONVECTION TO
REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED AT BEST.

ATTENTION TURNS TO OUR WEST ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES APPROACH FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST. LATEST MODELS ARE FOCUSING ON ONE SUCH
DISTURBANCE...POTENTIALLY THE DECAYING REMNANTS OF A THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX RIDING UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE IN THE MODELS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS FOR TRACK...TIMING AND INTENSITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM EDT SUNDAY...

EAST-WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS ESTABLISHED OVER OR NEAR THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD AS ADDITIONAL
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVES AND/OR MESOSCALE VORTICITY CENTERS FROM
DECAYING OLD MIDWEST CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
ENERGY/SUPPORT TO MAINTAIN THREAT FOR DAILY SCATTERED CONVECTION.

STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT/POSITIONING OF EACH WAVE IN MAINLY ZONAL UPPER
FLOW WILL INFLUENCE DAILY POSITION OF DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...
EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER...AND EXTENT OF WARM OR COOL ADVECTION
DEPENDING ON POSITION RELATIVE TO FRONT.

HIGHEST THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THIS PERIOD APPEARS TO COME ON
FRIDAY...WHEN TWO OF THE MORE NOTABLE UPSTREAM WAVES ARRIVE...AND
THIS IS REFLECTED ACCORDINGLY IN GRIDS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.
OTHERWISE...A LOWER AND MORE GENERALIZED THREAT FOR DAILY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINTAINED INTO SATURDAY UNTIL REGIONAL/
MESOSCALE FEATURES BECOME BETTER RESOLVED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT SUNDAY...

EXPECT VFR TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WITH PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. MAY
SEE A LITTLE FOG AT LWB LATER SUNDAY NIGHT TAKING VSBYS TO IFR
LEVELS.



EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT SATURDAY...

MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONT
WILL SET UP IN THE MID ATLANTIC WHICH COULD BRING A FEW SHRA/TSRA
BY TUESDAY...WITH PERHAPS A BIT MORE COVERAGE LATER WEDNESDAY AT
THIS POINT. THUS THE THREAT OF SUB-VFR REMAINS LOW UNTIL AROUND
MIDWEEK...EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL FOG POTENTIAL AT KLWB/KBCB EACH
MORNING BETWEEN 09-13Z.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF/WERT
AVIATION...DS/JH/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 021125
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
725 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
SINKS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...REACHING THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER BY
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 302 AM EDT SUNDAY...

FORECAST THIS PERIOD STILL CENTERS AROUND UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. FOR OUR AREA WILL SEE DRY WEATHER AGAIN DAY AND
WARM...HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...TO MID 80S VALLEYS...AND UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S PIEDMONT
INTO THE ROANOKE/LEXINGTON VA CORRIDOR.

THERE IS A COUPLE OF PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ALONG THE
TROUGH ALLOWING FOR CIRRUS. EXPECT TO SEE THIS STREAK OF CIRRUS
TODAY THOUGH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BE THE RULE.

TONIGHT...STILL LOOKING AT A QUIET WX NIGHT WITH CALM/LIGHT WINDS.
THE FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH A COUPLE DAYS OR SO AGO MAY SHIFT NWD
WITH A SFC WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. NOT SEEING ANY MOISTURE
THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SCATTERING OF LOWER CLOUDS TOWARD
SOUTHSIDE VA AND NC PIEDMONT LATE TONIGHT BUT MAJORITY OF MODEL
SOLUTIONS KEEP THE CLOUDS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA...SO WILL
MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOWS AGAIN GOING TO VARY FROM THE LOWER
50S DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO MID TO UPPER 50S REST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...EXCEPT LOWER 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER PEAKS OF SE WV AS
ENOUGH FLOW TO KEEP IT MIXED. THE PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS AND ROANOKE
VALLEY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG
EXPECTED AGAIN LATE IN THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO HOLD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE COUNTY THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE TROUGH WILL
BECOME LESS PRONOUNCED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK AS THE
CENTER PUSHES OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. REGARDLESS...THE PATTERN WILL
ALLOW US TO MAINTAIN A GENERAL WEST TO EAST UPPER LEVEL WINDFLOW FOR
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.

MONDAY WILL START DRY...BUT EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS TO PUSH
AGAINST THE WESTERN RIDGES DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE NOT
OPTIMISTIC THAT MUCH...IF ANY...OF THE RAINFALL WILL SURVIVE EAST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS THEY ENCOUNTER DRY AIR IN PLACE AND
DOWNSLOPE WINDFLOW. DOWNSLOPING AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE MID 80S MOST SPOTS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND AS HIGH AS THE MID 90S ACROSS THE
SOUTHSIDE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT...AND
SOME DISAGREEMENT REMAINS AS TO HOW FAR ACROSS OUR AREA THE FRONT
WILL SINK ON TUESDAY. THE CONSENSUS IS THAT THE FRONT WILL ADVANCE
TO NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER BY EVENING. AS SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460 DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THAT STATED...DO NOT EXPECT ANY STRONG RETURN OF
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND THEREFORE EXPECT CONVECTION TO
REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED AT BEST.

ATTENTION TURNS TO OUR WEST ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES APPROACH FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST. LATEST MODELS ARE FOCUSING ON ONE SUCH
DISTURBANCE...POTENTIALLY THE DECAYING REMNANTS OF A THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX RIDING UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE IN THE MODELS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS FOR TRACK...TIMING AND INTENSITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM EDT SUNDAY...

EAST-WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS ESTABLISHED OVER OR NEAR THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD AS ADDITIONAL
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVES AND/OR MESOSCALE VORTICITY CENTERS FROM
DECAYING OLD MIDWEST CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
ENERGY/SUPPORT TO MAINTAIN THREAT FOR DAILY SCATTERED CONVECTION.

STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT/POSITIONING OF EACH WAVE IN MAINLY ZONAL UPPER
FLOW WILL INFLUENCE DAILY POSITION OF DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...
EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER...AND EXTENT OF WARM OR COOL ADVECTION
DEPENDING ON POSITION RELATIVE TO FRONT.

HIGHEST THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THIS PERIOD APPEARS TO COME ON
FRIDAY...WHEN TWO OF THE MORE NOTABLE UPSTREAM WAVES ARRIVE...AND
THIS IS REFLECTED ACCORDINGLY IN GRIDS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.
OTHERWISE...A LOWER AND MORE GENERALIZED THREAT FOR DAILY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINTAINED INTO SATURDAY UNTIL REGIONAL/
MESOSCALE FEATURES BECOME BETTER RESOLVED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT SUNDAY...

EXPECT VFR TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WITH PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. MAY
SEE A LITTLE FOG AT LWB LATER SUNDAY NIGHT TAKING VSBYS TO IFR
LEVELS.



EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT SATURDAY...

MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONT
WILL SET UP IN THE MID ATLANTIC WHICH COULD BRING A FEW SHRA/TSRA
BY TUESDAY...WITH PERHAPS A BIT MORE COVERAGE LATER WEDNESDAY AT
THIS POINT. THUS THE THREAT OF SUB-VFR REMAINS LOW UNTIL AROUND
MIDWEEK...EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL FOG POTENTIAL AT KLWB/KBCB EACH
MORNING BETWEEN 09-13Z.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF/WERT
AVIATION...DS/JH/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 021125
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
725 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
SINKS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...REACHING THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER BY
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 302 AM EDT SUNDAY...

FORECAST THIS PERIOD STILL CENTERS AROUND UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. FOR OUR AREA WILL SEE DRY WEATHER AGAIN DAY AND
WARM...HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...TO MID 80S VALLEYS...AND UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S PIEDMONT
INTO THE ROANOKE/LEXINGTON VA CORRIDOR.

THERE IS A COUPLE OF PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ALONG THE
TROUGH ALLOWING FOR CIRRUS. EXPECT TO SEE THIS STREAK OF CIRRUS
TODAY THOUGH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BE THE RULE.

TONIGHT...STILL LOOKING AT A QUIET WX NIGHT WITH CALM/LIGHT WINDS.
THE FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH A COUPLE DAYS OR SO AGO MAY SHIFT NWD
WITH A SFC WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. NOT SEEING ANY MOISTURE
THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SCATTERING OF LOWER CLOUDS TOWARD
SOUTHSIDE VA AND NC PIEDMONT LATE TONIGHT BUT MAJORITY OF MODEL
SOLUTIONS KEEP THE CLOUDS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA...SO WILL
MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOWS AGAIN GOING TO VARY FROM THE LOWER
50S DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO MID TO UPPER 50S REST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...EXCEPT LOWER 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER PEAKS OF SE WV AS
ENOUGH FLOW TO KEEP IT MIXED. THE PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS AND ROANOKE
VALLEY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG
EXPECTED AGAIN LATE IN THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO HOLD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE COUNTY THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE TROUGH WILL
BECOME LESS PRONOUNCED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK AS THE
CENTER PUSHES OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. REGARDLESS...THE PATTERN WILL
ALLOW US TO MAINTAIN A GENERAL WEST TO EAST UPPER LEVEL WINDFLOW FOR
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.

MONDAY WILL START DRY...BUT EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS TO PUSH
AGAINST THE WESTERN RIDGES DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE NOT
OPTIMISTIC THAT MUCH...IF ANY...OF THE RAINFALL WILL SURVIVE EAST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS THEY ENCOUNTER DRY AIR IN PLACE AND
DOWNSLOPE WINDFLOW. DOWNSLOPING AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE MID 80S MOST SPOTS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND AS HIGH AS THE MID 90S ACROSS THE
SOUTHSIDE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT...AND
SOME DISAGREEMENT REMAINS AS TO HOW FAR ACROSS OUR AREA THE FRONT
WILL SINK ON TUESDAY. THE CONSENSUS IS THAT THE FRONT WILL ADVANCE
TO NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER BY EVENING. AS SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460 DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THAT STATED...DO NOT EXPECT ANY STRONG RETURN OF
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND THEREFORE EXPECT CONVECTION TO
REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED AT BEST.

ATTENTION TURNS TO OUR WEST ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES APPROACH FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST. LATEST MODELS ARE FOCUSING ON ONE SUCH
DISTURBANCE...POTENTIALLY THE DECAYING REMNANTS OF A THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX RIDING UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE IN THE MODELS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS FOR TRACK...TIMING AND INTENSITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM EDT SUNDAY...

EAST-WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS ESTABLISHED OVER OR NEAR THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD AS ADDITIONAL
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVES AND/OR MESOSCALE VORTICITY CENTERS FROM
DECAYING OLD MIDWEST CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
ENERGY/SUPPORT TO MAINTAIN THREAT FOR DAILY SCATTERED CONVECTION.

STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT/POSITIONING OF EACH WAVE IN MAINLY ZONAL UPPER
FLOW WILL INFLUENCE DAILY POSITION OF DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...
EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER...AND EXTENT OF WARM OR COOL ADVECTION
DEPENDING ON POSITION RELATIVE TO FRONT.

HIGHEST THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THIS PERIOD APPEARS TO COME ON
FRIDAY...WHEN TWO OF THE MORE NOTABLE UPSTREAM WAVES ARRIVE...AND
THIS IS REFLECTED ACCORDINGLY IN GRIDS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.
OTHERWISE...A LOWER AND MORE GENERALIZED THREAT FOR DAILY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINTAINED INTO SATURDAY UNTIL REGIONAL/
MESOSCALE FEATURES BECOME BETTER RESOLVED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT SUNDAY...

EXPECT VFR TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WITH PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. MAY
SEE A LITTLE FOG AT LWB LATER SUNDAY NIGHT TAKING VSBYS TO IFR
LEVELS.



EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT SATURDAY...

MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONT
WILL SET UP IN THE MID ATLANTIC WHICH COULD BRING A FEW SHRA/TSRA
BY TUESDAY...WITH PERHAPS A BIT MORE COVERAGE LATER WEDNESDAY AT
THIS POINT. THUS THE THREAT OF SUB-VFR REMAINS LOW UNTIL AROUND
MIDWEEK...EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL FOG POTENTIAL AT KLWB/KBCB EACH
MORNING BETWEEN 09-13Z.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF/WERT
AVIATION...DS/JH/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 021125
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
725 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
SINKS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...REACHING THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER BY
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 302 AM EDT SUNDAY...

FORECAST THIS PERIOD STILL CENTERS AROUND UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. FOR OUR AREA WILL SEE DRY WEATHER AGAIN DAY AND
WARM...HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...TO MID 80S VALLEYS...AND UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S PIEDMONT
INTO THE ROANOKE/LEXINGTON VA CORRIDOR.

THERE IS A COUPLE OF PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ALONG THE
TROUGH ALLOWING FOR CIRRUS. EXPECT TO SEE THIS STREAK OF CIRRUS
TODAY THOUGH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BE THE RULE.

TONIGHT...STILL LOOKING AT A QUIET WX NIGHT WITH CALM/LIGHT WINDS.
THE FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH A COUPLE DAYS OR SO AGO MAY SHIFT NWD
WITH A SFC WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. NOT SEEING ANY MOISTURE
THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SCATTERING OF LOWER CLOUDS TOWARD
SOUTHSIDE VA AND NC PIEDMONT LATE TONIGHT BUT MAJORITY OF MODEL
SOLUTIONS KEEP THE CLOUDS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA...SO WILL
MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOWS AGAIN GOING TO VARY FROM THE LOWER
50S DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO MID TO UPPER 50S REST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...EXCEPT LOWER 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER PEAKS OF SE WV AS
ENOUGH FLOW TO KEEP IT MIXED. THE PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS AND ROANOKE
VALLEY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG
EXPECTED AGAIN LATE IN THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO HOLD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE COUNTY THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE TROUGH WILL
BECOME LESS PRONOUNCED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK AS THE
CENTER PUSHES OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. REGARDLESS...THE PATTERN WILL
ALLOW US TO MAINTAIN A GENERAL WEST TO EAST UPPER LEVEL WINDFLOW FOR
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.

MONDAY WILL START DRY...BUT EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS TO PUSH
AGAINST THE WESTERN RIDGES DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE NOT
OPTIMISTIC THAT MUCH...IF ANY...OF THE RAINFALL WILL SURVIVE EAST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS THEY ENCOUNTER DRY AIR IN PLACE AND
DOWNSLOPE WINDFLOW. DOWNSLOPING AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE MID 80S MOST SPOTS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND AS HIGH AS THE MID 90S ACROSS THE
SOUTHSIDE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT...AND
SOME DISAGREEMENT REMAINS AS TO HOW FAR ACROSS OUR AREA THE FRONT
WILL SINK ON TUESDAY. THE CONSENSUS IS THAT THE FRONT WILL ADVANCE
TO NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER BY EVENING. AS SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460 DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THAT STATED...DO NOT EXPECT ANY STRONG RETURN OF
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND THEREFORE EXPECT CONVECTION TO
REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED AT BEST.

ATTENTION TURNS TO OUR WEST ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES APPROACH FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST. LATEST MODELS ARE FOCUSING ON ONE SUCH
DISTURBANCE...POTENTIALLY THE DECAYING REMNANTS OF A THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX RIDING UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE IN THE MODELS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS FOR TRACK...TIMING AND INTENSITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM EDT SUNDAY...

EAST-WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS ESTABLISHED OVER OR NEAR THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD AS ADDITIONAL
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVES AND/OR MESOSCALE VORTICITY CENTERS FROM
DECAYING OLD MIDWEST CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
ENERGY/SUPPORT TO MAINTAIN THREAT FOR DAILY SCATTERED CONVECTION.

STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT/POSITIONING OF EACH WAVE IN MAINLY ZONAL UPPER
FLOW WILL INFLUENCE DAILY POSITION OF DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...
EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER...AND EXTENT OF WARM OR COOL ADVECTION
DEPENDING ON POSITION RELATIVE TO FRONT.

HIGHEST THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THIS PERIOD APPEARS TO COME ON
FRIDAY...WHEN TWO OF THE MORE NOTABLE UPSTREAM WAVES ARRIVE...AND
THIS IS REFLECTED ACCORDINGLY IN GRIDS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.
OTHERWISE...A LOWER AND MORE GENERALIZED THREAT FOR DAILY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINTAINED INTO SATURDAY UNTIL REGIONAL/
MESOSCALE FEATURES BECOME BETTER RESOLVED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT SUNDAY...

EXPECT VFR TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WITH PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. MAY
SEE A LITTLE FOG AT LWB LATER SUNDAY NIGHT TAKING VSBYS TO IFR
LEVELS.



EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT SATURDAY...

MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONT
WILL SET UP IN THE MID ATLANTIC WHICH COULD BRING A FEW SHRA/TSRA
BY TUESDAY...WITH PERHAPS A BIT MORE COVERAGE LATER WEDNESDAY AT
THIS POINT. THUS THE THREAT OF SUB-VFR REMAINS LOW UNTIL AROUND
MIDWEEK...EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL FOG POTENTIAL AT KLWB/KBCB EACH
MORNING BETWEEN 09-13Z.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF/WERT
AVIATION...DS/JH/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 021125
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
725 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
SINKS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...REACHING THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER BY
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 302 AM EDT SUNDAY...

FORECAST THIS PERIOD STILL CENTERS AROUND UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. FOR OUR AREA WILL SEE DRY WEATHER AGAIN DAY AND
WARM...HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...TO MID 80S VALLEYS...AND UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S PIEDMONT
INTO THE ROANOKE/LEXINGTON VA CORRIDOR.

THERE IS A COUPLE OF PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ALONG THE
TROUGH ALLOWING FOR CIRRUS. EXPECT TO SEE THIS STREAK OF CIRRUS
TODAY THOUGH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BE THE RULE.

TONIGHT...STILL LOOKING AT A QUIET WX NIGHT WITH CALM/LIGHT WINDS.
THE FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH A COUPLE DAYS OR SO AGO MAY SHIFT NWD
WITH A SFC WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. NOT SEEING ANY MOISTURE
THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SCATTERING OF LOWER CLOUDS TOWARD
SOUTHSIDE VA AND NC PIEDMONT LATE TONIGHT BUT MAJORITY OF MODEL
SOLUTIONS KEEP THE CLOUDS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA...SO WILL
MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOWS AGAIN GOING TO VARY FROM THE LOWER
50S DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO MID TO UPPER 50S REST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...EXCEPT LOWER 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER PEAKS OF SE WV AS
ENOUGH FLOW TO KEEP IT MIXED. THE PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS AND ROANOKE
VALLEY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG
EXPECTED AGAIN LATE IN THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO HOLD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE COUNTY THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE TROUGH WILL
BECOME LESS PRONOUNCED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK AS THE
CENTER PUSHES OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. REGARDLESS...THE PATTERN WILL
ALLOW US TO MAINTAIN A GENERAL WEST TO EAST UPPER LEVEL WINDFLOW FOR
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.

MONDAY WILL START DRY...BUT EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS TO PUSH
AGAINST THE WESTERN RIDGES DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE NOT
OPTIMISTIC THAT MUCH...IF ANY...OF THE RAINFALL WILL SURVIVE EAST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS THEY ENCOUNTER DRY AIR IN PLACE AND
DOWNSLOPE WINDFLOW. DOWNSLOPING AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE MID 80S MOST SPOTS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND AS HIGH AS THE MID 90S ACROSS THE
SOUTHSIDE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT...AND
SOME DISAGREEMENT REMAINS AS TO HOW FAR ACROSS OUR AREA THE FRONT
WILL SINK ON TUESDAY. THE CONSENSUS IS THAT THE FRONT WILL ADVANCE
TO NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER BY EVENING. AS SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460 DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THAT STATED...DO NOT EXPECT ANY STRONG RETURN OF
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND THEREFORE EXPECT CONVECTION TO
REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED AT BEST.

ATTENTION TURNS TO OUR WEST ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES APPROACH FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST. LATEST MODELS ARE FOCUSING ON ONE SUCH
DISTURBANCE...POTENTIALLY THE DECAYING REMNANTS OF A THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX RIDING UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE IN THE MODELS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS FOR TRACK...TIMING AND INTENSITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM EDT SUNDAY...

EAST-WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS ESTABLISHED OVER OR NEAR THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD AS ADDITIONAL
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVES AND/OR MESOSCALE VORTICITY CENTERS FROM
DECAYING OLD MIDWEST CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
ENERGY/SUPPORT TO MAINTAIN THREAT FOR DAILY SCATTERED CONVECTION.

STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT/POSITIONING OF EACH WAVE IN MAINLY ZONAL UPPER
FLOW WILL INFLUENCE DAILY POSITION OF DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...
EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER...AND EXTENT OF WARM OR COOL ADVECTION
DEPENDING ON POSITION RELATIVE TO FRONT.

HIGHEST THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THIS PERIOD APPEARS TO COME ON
FRIDAY...WHEN TWO OF THE MORE NOTABLE UPSTREAM WAVES ARRIVE...AND
THIS IS REFLECTED ACCORDINGLY IN GRIDS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.
OTHERWISE...A LOWER AND MORE GENERALIZED THREAT FOR DAILY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINTAINED INTO SATURDAY UNTIL REGIONAL/
MESOSCALE FEATURES BECOME BETTER RESOLVED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT SUNDAY...

EXPECT VFR TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WITH PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. MAY
SEE A LITTLE FOG AT LWB LATER SUNDAY NIGHT TAKING VSBYS TO IFR
LEVELS.



EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT SATURDAY...

MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONT
WILL SET UP IN THE MID ATLANTIC WHICH COULD BRING A FEW SHRA/TSRA
BY TUESDAY...WITH PERHAPS A BIT MORE COVERAGE LATER WEDNESDAY AT
THIS POINT. THUS THE THREAT OF SUB-VFR REMAINS LOW UNTIL AROUND
MIDWEEK...EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL FOG POTENTIAL AT KLWB/KBCB EACH
MORNING BETWEEN 09-13Z.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF/WERT
AVIATION...DS/JH/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 021125
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
725 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
SINKS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...REACHING THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER BY
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 302 AM EDT SUNDAY...

FORECAST THIS PERIOD STILL CENTERS AROUND UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. FOR OUR AREA WILL SEE DRY WEATHER AGAIN DAY AND
WARM...HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...TO MID 80S VALLEYS...AND UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S PIEDMONT
INTO THE ROANOKE/LEXINGTON VA CORRIDOR.

THERE IS A COUPLE OF PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ALONG THE
TROUGH ALLOWING FOR CIRRUS. EXPECT TO SEE THIS STREAK OF CIRRUS
TODAY THOUGH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BE THE RULE.

TONIGHT...STILL LOOKING AT A QUIET WX NIGHT WITH CALM/LIGHT WINDS.
THE FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH A COUPLE DAYS OR SO AGO MAY SHIFT NWD
WITH A SFC WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. NOT SEEING ANY MOISTURE
THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SCATTERING OF LOWER CLOUDS TOWARD
SOUTHSIDE VA AND NC PIEDMONT LATE TONIGHT BUT MAJORITY OF MODEL
SOLUTIONS KEEP THE CLOUDS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA...SO WILL
MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOWS AGAIN GOING TO VARY FROM THE LOWER
50S DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO MID TO UPPER 50S REST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...EXCEPT LOWER 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER PEAKS OF SE WV AS
ENOUGH FLOW TO KEEP IT MIXED. THE PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS AND ROANOKE
VALLEY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG
EXPECTED AGAIN LATE IN THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO HOLD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE COUNTY THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE TROUGH WILL
BECOME LESS PRONOUNCED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK AS THE
CENTER PUSHES OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. REGARDLESS...THE PATTERN WILL
ALLOW US TO MAINTAIN A GENERAL WEST TO EAST UPPER LEVEL WINDFLOW FOR
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.

MONDAY WILL START DRY...BUT EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS TO PUSH
AGAINST THE WESTERN RIDGES DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE NOT
OPTIMISTIC THAT MUCH...IF ANY...OF THE RAINFALL WILL SURVIVE EAST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS THEY ENCOUNTER DRY AIR IN PLACE AND
DOWNSLOPE WINDFLOW. DOWNSLOPING AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE MID 80S MOST SPOTS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND AS HIGH AS THE MID 90S ACROSS THE
SOUTHSIDE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT...AND
SOME DISAGREEMENT REMAINS AS TO HOW FAR ACROSS OUR AREA THE FRONT
WILL SINK ON TUESDAY. THE CONSENSUS IS THAT THE FRONT WILL ADVANCE
TO NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER BY EVENING. AS SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460 DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THAT STATED...DO NOT EXPECT ANY STRONG RETURN OF
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND THEREFORE EXPECT CONVECTION TO
REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED AT BEST.

ATTENTION TURNS TO OUR WEST ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES APPROACH FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST. LATEST MODELS ARE FOCUSING ON ONE SUCH
DISTURBANCE...POTENTIALLY THE DECAYING REMNANTS OF A THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX RIDING UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE IN THE MODELS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS FOR TRACK...TIMING AND INTENSITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM EDT SUNDAY...

EAST-WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS ESTABLISHED OVER OR NEAR THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD AS ADDITIONAL
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVES AND/OR MESOSCALE VORTICITY CENTERS FROM
DECAYING OLD MIDWEST CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
ENERGY/SUPPORT TO MAINTAIN THREAT FOR DAILY SCATTERED CONVECTION.

STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT/POSITIONING OF EACH WAVE IN MAINLY ZONAL UPPER
FLOW WILL INFLUENCE DAILY POSITION OF DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...
EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER...AND EXTENT OF WARM OR COOL ADVECTION
DEPENDING ON POSITION RELATIVE TO FRONT.

HIGHEST THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THIS PERIOD APPEARS TO COME ON
FRIDAY...WHEN TWO OF THE MORE NOTABLE UPSTREAM WAVES ARRIVE...AND
THIS IS REFLECTED ACCORDINGLY IN GRIDS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.
OTHERWISE...A LOWER AND MORE GENERALIZED THREAT FOR DAILY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINTAINED INTO SATURDAY UNTIL REGIONAL/
MESOSCALE FEATURES BECOME BETTER RESOLVED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT SUNDAY...

EXPECT VFR TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WITH PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. MAY
SEE A LITTLE FOG AT LWB LATER SUNDAY NIGHT TAKING VSBYS TO IFR
LEVELS.



EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT SATURDAY...

MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONT
WILL SET UP IN THE MID ATLANTIC WHICH COULD BRING A FEW SHRA/TSRA
BY TUESDAY...WITH PERHAPS A BIT MORE COVERAGE LATER WEDNESDAY AT
THIS POINT. THUS THE THREAT OF SUB-VFR REMAINS LOW UNTIL AROUND
MIDWEEK...EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL FOG POTENTIAL AT KLWB/KBCB EACH
MORNING BETWEEN 09-13Z.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF/WERT
AVIATION...DS/JH/WP



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021019
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
619 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT
WEAK COOL FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK SFC FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG/JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NC
COAST THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE, SFC TROUGH NOW IN PLACE FROM S MD
TO JUST OFFSHORE OF LONG ISLAND AND SE NEW ENGLAND. SCT SHRAS
WHICH DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT HAVE SHOVED WELL OFFSHORE AND HAVE
REMOVED POPS THIS MORNING OVER THE ERN SHORE. ALSO NOTING SOME
PATCHY FOG JUST NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE ALBEMARLE AND INTO FAR SE
VA THIS MORNING. THE FOG REMAINS RATHER SPARSE PER VDOT CAMERAS,
AND WILL KEEP OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE MOMENT, BUT WL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR AND HANDLE WITH STATEMENTS AS NEEDED.

OTHERWISE, ANOTHER VERY WARM/HOT AND MAINLY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
BUILD EAST FROM THE OH VLY TODAY. DESPITE PERSISTENT, LOW
AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE AREA, PW VALUES PER 00Z
SOUNDINGS REPRESENT VALUES THAT ARE ~1 S.D BELOW NORMAL ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS, IN TANDEM WITH WARMING ALOFT SHOULD KEEP A LID
ON ANY SMALL RAIN CHANCES TODAY. ANY SHRA ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
CONFINED MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA ALONG THE TROUGH.
HOWEVER, HAVE HELD ONTO A 20% RAIN CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED TSRA
ALONG ALBEMARLE SOUND (ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY 158 IN NE
NC) THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

LOCAL THICKNESS TOOLS AGAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOS
GUIDANCE AND OUR GOING FORECAST. THEREFORE, ONLY MINOR CHANGES
WERE MADE TO FORECAST MAXIMA TODAY...WHICH ARE FORECAST TO RISE
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S FOR MOST SECTIONS UNDER A MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOTHER MAINLY QUIET NIGHT WXWISE TONIGHT. COULD SEE SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG THE SE COASTAL PLAIN, BUT OVERALL EXPECT
A MAINLY CLEAR AND SLIGHTLY MILDER NIGHT WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS
65-70 (SOME POCKETS OF L60S POSSIBLE OVER THE PIEDMONT WEST OF
RIC).

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC FOR MUCH OF THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, SHARPENING THE EAST COAST TROUGH THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY AND ALLOWING THE FIRST IN A SERES OF UPPER SHORTWAVES
TO DROP SE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST LATER MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT COOL
FRONT TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION DURING THIS SAME PERIOD MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

GIVEN LOW TO MID LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND BEST FORCING WELL TO
OUR NORTH, APPEARS MOST OF THE AREA REMAINS DRY MONDAY.
MEANWHILE, ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE SE
COASTAL FRONT/SFC TROUGH MONDAY. WILL AGAIN CONFINE A SLIGHT CHC
POP TO SE THIRD OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTN/EVE. HIGHS 90-95 INLAND,
MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST.

UPPER LOW WILL EJECT EAST FROM QUEBEC TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA
TUESDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SCOOTING
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
TRANSITION TO A QUASI-ZONAL SETUP BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. HAVE A
SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POP IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY AFTN AND
EVENING, AS WEAK COOL FRONT SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALSO SLIDES BY JUST TO OUR N/NE, WITH
PW REMAINING LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD. 310-315K THETA SFCS POINT
TO "BEST" LIFT/MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
(NRN NECK/EASTERN SHORE), AND THUS HAVE GONE WITH LOW END CHC/30
POP IN THIS AREA, TAPERING BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER SOUTH.
ONLY SLIGHT CHC POP FOR WED, WITH QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCES MOVE
WEST TO EAST FROM THE LWR OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE REGION.
CONVECTION WOULD BE ISO TO WIDELY SCT, AND HENCE REMAINING IN 20%
RANGE FOR NOW. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
UP WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S.

SSW FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR INCREASING RH/DEWPOINT TEMPS...AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES TOP OUT ARND 100 EACH DAY THROUGH MIDWEEK
(HIGHEST WED).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH NIGHT/MORNG.
PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN CONUS WITH
TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC REGION. AS FOR
TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE LO/MID 90S THU TO MID/UPR 80S FRI
AND SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK TROUGHING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL WASH OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE NC COAST AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTN
THUNDERSTORMS TO KECG AND CIGS AROUND 6 KFT AGL. THE REST OF THE
TAF SITES WILL MAINTAIN A SCT CLOUD DECK BTWN 6-9 KFT AGL TODAY.
SKIES CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
WX PATTERN.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY AS
WEAK LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ALTHOUGH
THE TWO FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE INTO ONE ELONGATED TROUGH
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...BEST SHOWER CHANCES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK TROUGHING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL WASH OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. THE END RESULT WILL BE A VARIABLE WIND
DIRECTION AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-3 FT. MORE PROMINENT
SLY WINDS DEVELOP BY MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH TO THE NW-N AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SLOWLY MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WIND SPEEDS DURING MONDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10-15 KT BAY/RIVERS/SOUND AND 15-20 KT
OVER COASTAL WATERS. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SLY SURGE IS EXPECTED
FROM MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH LOW-END
SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 KT SHOULD BE
ANTICIPATED FOR ALL WATERS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT OVER
NRN COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT.
SCA FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE BAY AND AFOREMENTIONED NRN
COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY CURRITUCK SOUND. WAVES/SEAS SHOULD
BUILD TO 2-3 FT/3-4 FT RESPECTIVELY...UP TO 5 FT POSSIBLE FOR
NRN COASTAL WATERS OUT NEAR 20NM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK TROUGHING ALONG AND
JUST OFF THE COAST. EXPECT S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND
WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021019
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
619 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT
WEAK COOL FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK SFC FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG/JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NC
COAST THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE, SFC TROUGH NOW IN PLACE FROM S MD
TO JUST OFFSHORE OF LONG ISLAND AND SE NEW ENGLAND. SCT SHRAS
WHICH DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT HAVE SHOVED WELL OFFSHORE AND HAVE
REMOVED POPS THIS MORNING OVER THE ERN SHORE. ALSO NOTING SOME
PATCHY FOG JUST NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE ALBEMARLE AND INTO FAR SE
VA THIS MORNING. THE FOG REMAINS RATHER SPARSE PER VDOT CAMERAS,
AND WILL KEEP OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE MOMENT, BUT WL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR AND HANDLE WITH STATEMENTS AS NEEDED.

OTHERWISE, ANOTHER VERY WARM/HOT AND MAINLY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
BUILD EAST FROM THE OH VLY TODAY. DESPITE PERSISTENT, LOW
AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE AREA, PW VALUES PER 00Z
SOUNDINGS REPRESENT VALUES THAT ARE ~1 S.D BELOW NORMAL ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS, IN TANDEM WITH WARMING ALOFT SHOULD KEEP A LID
ON ANY SMALL RAIN CHANCES TODAY. ANY SHRA ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
CONFINED MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA ALONG THE TROUGH.
HOWEVER, HAVE HELD ONTO A 20% RAIN CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED TSRA
ALONG ALBEMARLE SOUND (ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY 158 IN NE
NC) THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

LOCAL THICKNESS TOOLS AGAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOS
GUIDANCE AND OUR GOING FORECAST. THEREFORE, ONLY MINOR CHANGES
WERE MADE TO FORECAST MAXIMA TODAY...WHICH ARE FORECAST TO RISE
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S FOR MOST SECTIONS UNDER A MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOTHER MAINLY QUIET NIGHT WXWISE TONIGHT. COULD SEE SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG THE SE COASTAL PLAIN, BUT OVERALL EXPECT
A MAINLY CLEAR AND SLIGHTLY MILDER NIGHT WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS
65-70 (SOME POCKETS OF L60S POSSIBLE OVER THE PIEDMONT WEST OF
RIC).

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC FOR MUCH OF THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, SHARPENING THE EAST COAST TROUGH THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY AND ALLOWING THE FIRST IN A SERES OF UPPER SHORTWAVES
TO DROP SE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST LATER MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT COOL
FRONT TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION DURING THIS SAME PERIOD MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

GIVEN LOW TO MID LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND BEST FORCING WELL TO
OUR NORTH, APPEARS MOST OF THE AREA REMAINS DRY MONDAY.
MEANWHILE, ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE SE
COASTAL FRONT/SFC TROUGH MONDAY. WILL AGAIN CONFINE A SLIGHT CHC
POP TO SE THIRD OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTN/EVE. HIGHS 90-95 INLAND,
MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST.

UPPER LOW WILL EJECT EAST FROM QUEBEC TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA
TUESDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SCOOTING
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
TRANSITION TO A QUASI-ZONAL SETUP BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. HAVE A
SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POP IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY AFTN AND
EVENING, AS WEAK COOL FRONT SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALSO SLIDES BY JUST TO OUR N/NE, WITH
PW REMAINING LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD. 310-315K THETA SFCS POINT
TO "BEST" LIFT/MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
(NRN NECK/EASTERN SHORE), AND THUS HAVE GONE WITH LOW END CHC/30
POP IN THIS AREA, TAPERING BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER SOUTH.
ONLY SLIGHT CHC POP FOR WED, WITH QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCES MOVE
WEST TO EAST FROM THE LWR OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE REGION.
CONVECTION WOULD BE ISO TO WIDELY SCT, AND HENCE REMAINING IN 20%
RANGE FOR NOW. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
UP WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S.

SSW FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR INCREASING RH/DEWPOINT TEMPS...AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES TOP OUT ARND 100 EACH DAY THROUGH MIDWEEK
(HIGHEST WED).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH NIGHT/MORNG.
PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN CONUS WITH
TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC REGION. AS FOR
TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE LO/MID 90S THU TO MID/UPR 80S FRI
AND SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK TROUGHING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL WASH OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE NC COAST AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTN
THUNDERSTORMS TO KECG AND CIGS AROUND 6 KFT AGL. THE REST OF THE
TAF SITES WILL MAINTAIN A SCT CLOUD DECK BTWN 6-9 KFT AGL TODAY.
SKIES CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
WX PATTERN.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY AS
WEAK LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ALTHOUGH
THE TWO FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE INTO ONE ELONGATED TROUGH
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...BEST SHOWER CHANCES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK TROUGHING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL WASH OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. THE END RESULT WILL BE A VARIABLE WIND
DIRECTION AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-3 FT. MORE PROMINENT
SLY WINDS DEVELOP BY MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH TO THE NW-N AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SLOWLY MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WIND SPEEDS DURING MONDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10-15 KT BAY/RIVERS/SOUND AND 15-20 KT
OVER COASTAL WATERS. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SLY SURGE IS EXPECTED
FROM MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH LOW-END
SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 KT SHOULD BE
ANTICIPATED FOR ALL WATERS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT OVER
NRN COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT.
SCA FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE BAY AND AFOREMENTIONED NRN
COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY CURRITUCK SOUND. WAVES/SEAS SHOULD
BUILD TO 2-3 FT/3-4 FT RESPECTIVELY...UP TO 5 FT POSSIBLE FOR
NRN COASTAL WATERS OUT NEAR 20NM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK TROUGHING ALONG AND
JUST OFF THE COAST. EXPECT S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND
WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020800
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
400 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT
WEAK COOL FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 PM TONIGHT/...

WEAK SFC FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG/JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NC
COAST THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE, A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE DELMARVA IN ASSOCIATION WITH SFC TROUGH IN PLACE
FROM S MD TO JUST OFFSHORE OF LONG ISLAND AND SE NEW ENGLAND.
NOTING SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE ALBEMARLE AND SE VA THIS
MORNING. WILL KEEP OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE MOMENT, BUT WL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND HANDLE WITH STATEMENTS AS NEEDED.
OTHERWISE, ANOTHER VERY WARM/HOT AND MAINLY DRY DAY ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST FROM THE OH
VLY TODAY. DESPITE PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE, PW REMAINING
ABOUT 1 S.D BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION AND WARMING ALOFT
SHOULD KEEP A LID ON RAIN CHANCES TODAY. ANY SHRA ACTIVITY REMAIN
CONFINED SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA, BUT HAVE HELD ONTO A 20% RAIN
CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED TSRA ALONG ALBEMARLE SOUND (ROUGHLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF HWY 158 IN NE NC).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC THROUGH THE PERIOD,
SHARPENING THE EAST COAST TROUGH AND ALLOWING THE FIRST IN A SERES
OF UPPER SHORTWAVES TO DROP SE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
NORTHEAST. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT COOL FRONT
TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND BEST FORCING
WELL TO OUR NORTH, APPEARS MOST OF THE AREA REMAINS DRY.
MEANWHILE, ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE
SE COASTAL FRONT/SFC TROUGH. WILL AGAIN CONFINE A SLIGHT CHC POP
TO SE THIRD OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTN/EVE. HIGHS 90-95 INLAND, MID
TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST.

UPPER LOW WILL EJECT EAST FROM QUEBEC TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA
THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SCOOTING ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA. LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRANSITION
TO A QUASI-ZONAL SETUP BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. HAVE A SLIGHT TO LOW
END CHANCE POP FOR TUESDAY AFTN AND EVENING AS ATTENDANT WEAK
COOL FRONT SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIDES BY JUST TO OUR NORTH, WITH PW REMAINING
LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD. 310-315K THETA SFCS POINT TO BEST
LIFT/MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA (NRN
NECK/EASTERN SHORE), AND THUS HAVE GONE WITH LOW END CHC/30 POP
IN THIS AREA, TAPERING BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER SOUTH. ONLY
SLIGHT CHC POP FOR WED, WITH QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCES MOVE WEST
TO EAST FROM THE LWR OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE REGION. CONVECTION
WOULD BE ISO TO WIDELY SCT, AND HENCE REMAINING IN 20% RANGE FOR
NOW. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S.

SSW FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR INCREASING RH/DEWPOINT TEMPS...AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES TOP OUT ARND 100 EACH DAY THROUGH MIDWEEK
(HIGHEST WED).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH NIGHT/MORNG.
PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN CONUS WITH
TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC REGION. AS FOR
TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE LO/MID 90S WED TO MID/UPR 80S FRI AND
SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK TROUGHING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL WASH OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE NC COAST AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTN
THUNDERSTORMS TO KECG AND CIGS AROUND 6 KFT AGL. THE REST OF THE
TAF SITES WILL MAINTAIN A SCT CLOUD DECK BTWN 6-9 KFT AGL TODAY.
SKIES CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
WX PATTERN.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY AS
WEAK LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ALTHOUGH
THE TWO FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE INTO ONE ELONGATED TROUGH
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...BEST SHOWER CHANCES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK TROUGHING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL WASH OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. THE END RESULT WILL BE A VARIABLE WIND
DIRECTION AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-3 FT. MORE PROMINENT
SLY WINDS DEVELOP BY MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH TO THE NW-N AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SLOWLY MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WIND SPEEDS DURING MONDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10-15 KT BAY/RIVERS/SOUND AND 15-20 KT
OVER COASTAL WATERS. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SLY SURGE IS EXPECTED
FROM MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH LOW-END
SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 KT SHOULD BE
ANTICIPATED FOR ALL WATERS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT OVER
NRN COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT.
SCA FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE BAY AND AFOREMENTIONED NRN
COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY CURRITUCK SOUND. WAVES/SEAS SHOULD
BUILD TO 2-3 FT/3-4 FT RESPECTIVELY...UP TO 5 FT POSSIBLE FOR
NRN COASTAL WATERS OUT NEAR 20NM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK TROUGHING ALONG AND
JUST OFF THE COAST. EXPECT S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND
WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020800
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
400 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT
WEAK COOL FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 PM TONIGHT/...

WEAK SFC FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG/JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NC
COAST THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE, A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE DELMARVA IN ASSOCIATION WITH SFC TROUGH IN PLACE
FROM S MD TO JUST OFFSHORE OF LONG ISLAND AND SE NEW ENGLAND.
NOTING SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE ALBEMARLE AND SE VA THIS
MORNING. WILL KEEP OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE MOMENT, BUT WL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND HANDLE WITH STATEMENTS AS NEEDED.
OTHERWISE, ANOTHER VERY WARM/HOT AND MAINLY DRY DAY ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST FROM THE OH
VLY TODAY. DESPITE PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE, PW REMAINING
ABOUT 1 S.D BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION AND WARMING ALOFT
SHOULD KEEP A LID ON RAIN CHANCES TODAY. ANY SHRA ACTIVITY REMAIN
CONFINED SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA, BUT HAVE HELD ONTO A 20% RAIN
CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED TSRA ALONG ALBEMARLE SOUND (ROUGHLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF HWY 158 IN NE NC).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC THROUGH THE PERIOD,
SHARPENING THE EAST COAST TROUGH AND ALLOWING THE FIRST IN A SERES
OF UPPER SHORTWAVES TO DROP SE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
NORTHEAST. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT COOL FRONT
TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND BEST FORCING
WELL TO OUR NORTH, APPEARS MOST OF THE AREA REMAINS DRY.
MEANWHILE, ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE
SE COASTAL FRONT/SFC TROUGH. WILL AGAIN CONFINE A SLIGHT CHC POP
TO SE THIRD OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTN/EVE. HIGHS 90-95 INLAND, MID
TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST.

UPPER LOW WILL EJECT EAST FROM QUEBEC TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA
THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SCOOTING ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA. LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRANSITION
TO A QUASI-ZONAL SETUP BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. HAVE A SLIGHT TO LOW
END CHANCE POP FOR TUESDAY AFTN AND EVENING AS ATTENDANT WEAK
COOL FRONT SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIDES BY JUST TO OUR NORTH, WITH PW REMAINING
LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD. 310-315K THETA SFCS POINT TO BEST
LIFT/MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA (NRN
NECK/EASTERN SHORE), AND THUS HAVE GONE WITH LOW END CHC/30 POP
IN THIS AREA, TAPERING BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER SOUTH. ONLY
SLIGHT CHC POP FOR WED, WITH QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCES MOVE WEST
TO EAST FROM THE LWR OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE REGION. CONVECTION
WOULD BE ISO TO WIDELY SCT, AND HENCE REMAINING IN 20% RANGE FOR
NOW. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S.

SSW FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR INCREASING RH/DEWPOINT TEMPS...AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES TOP OUT ARND 100 EACH DAY THROUGH MIDWEEK
(HIGHEST WED).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH NIGHT/MORNG.
PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN CONUS WITH
TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC REGION. AS FOR
TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE LO/MID 90S WED TO MID/UPR 80S FRI AND
SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK TROUGHING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL WASH OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE NC COAST AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTN
THUNDERSTORMS TO KECG AND CIGS AROUND 6 KFT AGL. THE REST OF THE
TAF SITES WILL MAINTAIN A SCT CLOUD DECK BTWN 6-9 KFT AGL TODAY.
SKIES CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
WX PATTERN.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY AS
WEAK LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ALTHOUGH
THE TWO FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE INTO ONE ELONGATED TROUGH
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...BEST SHOWER CHANCES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK TROUGHING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL WASH OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. THE END RESULT WILL BE A VARIABLE WIND
DIRECTION AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-3 FT. MORE PROMINENT
SLY WINDS DEVELOP BY MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH TO THE NW-N AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SLOWLY MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WIND SPEEDS DURING MONDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10-15 KT BAY/RIVERS/SOUND AND 15-20 KT
OVER COASTAL WATERS. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SLY SURGE IS EXPECTED
FROM MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH LOW-END
SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 KT SHOULD BE
ANTICIPATED FOR ALL WATERS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT OVER
NRN COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT.
SCA FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE BAY AND AFOREMENTIONED NRN
COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY CURRITUCK SOUND. WAVES/SEAS SHOULD
BUILD TO 2-3 FT/3-4 FT RESPECTIVELY...UP TO 5 FT POSSIBLE FOR
NRN COASTAL WATERS OUT NEAR 20NM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK TROUGHING ALONG AND
JUST OFF THE COAST. EXPECT S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND
WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020800
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
400 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT
WEAK COOL FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 PM TONIGHT/...

WEAK SFC FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG/JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NC
COAST THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE, A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE DELMARVA IN ASSOCIATION WITH SFC TROUGH IN PLACE
FROM S MD TO JUST OFFSHORE OF LONG ISLAND AND SE NEW ENGLAND.
NOTING SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE ALBEMARLE AND SE VA THIS
MORNING. WILL KEEP OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE MOMENT, BUT WL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND HANDLE WITH STATEMENTS AS NEEDED.
OTHERWISE, ANOTHER VERY WARM/HOT AND MAINLY DRY DAY ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST FROM THE OH
VLY TODAY. DESPITE PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE, PW REMAINING
ABOUT 1 S.D BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION AND WARMING ALOFT
SHOULD KEEP A LID ON RAIN CHANCES TODAY. ANY SHRA ACTIVITY REMAIN
CONFINED SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA, BUT HAVE HELD ONTO A 20% RAIN
CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED TSRA ALONG ALBEMARLE SOUND (ROUGHLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF HWY 158 IN NE NC).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC THROUGH THE PERIOD,
SHARPENING THE EAST COAST TROUGH AND ALLOWING THE FIRST IN A SERES
OF UPPER SHORTWAVES TO DROP SE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
NORTHEAST. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT COOL FRONT
TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND BEST FORCING
WELL TO OUR NORTH, APPEARS MOST OF THE AREA REMAINS DRY.
MEANWHILE, ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE
SE COASTAL FRONT/SFC TROUGH. WILL AGAIN CONFINE A SLIGHT CHC POP
TO SE THIRD OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTN/EVE. HIGHS 90-95 INLAND, MID
TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST.

UPPER LOW WILL EJECT EAST FROM QUEBEC TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA
THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SCOOTING ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA. LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRANSITION
TO A QUASI-ZONAL SETUP BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. HAVE A SLIGHT TO LOW
END CHANCE POP FOR TUESDAY AFTN AND EVENING AS ATTENDANT WEAK
COOL FRONT SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIDES BY JUST TO OUR NORTH, WITH PW REMAINING
LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD. 310-315K THETA SFCS POINT TO BEST
LIFT/MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA (NRN
NECK/EASTERN SHORE), AND THUS HAVE GONE WITH LOW END CHC/30 POP
IN THIS AREA, TAPERING BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER SOUTH. ONLY
SLIGHT CHC POP FOR WED, WITH QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCES MOVE WEST
TO EAST FROM THE LWR OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE REGION. CONVECTION
WOULD BE ISO TO WIDELY SCT, AND HENCE REMAINING IN 20% RANGE FOR
NOW. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S.

SSW FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR INCREASING RH/DEWPOINT TEMPS...AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES TOP OUT ARND 100 EACH DAY THROUGH MIDWEEK
(HIGHEST WED).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH NIGHT/MORNG.
PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN CONUS WITH
TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC REGION. AS FOR
TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE LO/MID 90S WED TO MID/UPR 80S FRI AND
SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK TROUGHING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL WASH OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE NC COAST AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTN
THUNDERSTORMS TO KECG AND CIGS AROUND 6 KFT AGL. THE REST OF THE
TAF SITES WILL MAINTAIN A SCT CLOUD DECK BTWN 6-9 KFT AGL TODAY.
SKIES CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
WX PATTERN.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY AS
WEAK LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ALTHOUGH
THE TWO FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE INTO ONE ELONGATED TROUGH
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...BEST SHOWER CHANCES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK TROUGHING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL WASH OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. THE END RESULT WILL BE A VARIABLE WIND
DIRECTION AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-3 FT. MORE PROMINENT
SLY WINDS DEVELOP BY MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH TO THE NW-N AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SLOWLY MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WIND SPEEDS DURING MONDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10-15 KT BAY/RIVERS/SOUND AND 15-20 KT
OVER COASTAL WATERS. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SLY SURGE IS EXPECTED
FROM MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH LOW-END
SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 KT SHOULD BE
ANTICIPATED FOR ALL WATERS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT OVER
NRN COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT.
SCA FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE BAY AND AFOREMENTIONED NRN
COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY CURRITUCK SOUND. WAVES/SEAS SHOULD
BUILD TO 2-3 FT/3-4 FT RESPECTIVELY...UP TO 5 FT POSSIBLE FOR
NRN COASTAL WATERS OUT NEAR 20NM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK TROUGHING ALONG AND
JUST OFF THE COAST. EXPECT S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND
WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020800
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
400 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT
WEAK COOL FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 PM TONIGHT/...

WEAK SFC FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG/JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NC
COAST THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE, A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE DELMARVA IN ASSOCIATION WITH SFC TROUGH IN PLACE
FROM S MD TO JUST OFFSHORE OF LONG ISLAND AND SE NEW ENGLAND.
NOTING SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE ALBEMARLE AND SE VA THIS
MORNING. WILL KEEP OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE MOMENT, BUT WL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND HANDLE WITH STATEMENTS AS NEEDED.
OTHERWISE, ANOTHER VERY WARM/HOT AND MAINLY DRY DAY ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST FROM THE OH
VLY TODAY. DESPITE PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE, PW REMAINING
ABOUT 1 S.D BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION AND WARMING ALOFT
SHOULD KEEP A LID ON RAIN CHANCES TODAY. ANY SHRA ACTIVITY REMAIN
CONFINED SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA, BUT HAVE HELD ONTO A 20% RAIN
CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED TSRA ALONG ALBEMARLE SOUND (ROUGHLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF HWY 158 IN NE NC).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC THROUGH THE PERIOD,
SHARPENING THE EAST COAST TROUGH AND ALLOWING THE FIRST IN A SERES
OF UPPER SHORTWAVES TO DROP SE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
NORTHEAST. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT COOL FRONT
TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND BEST FORCING
WELL TO OUR NORTH, APPEARS MOST OF THE AREA REMAINS DRY.
MEANWHILE, ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE
SE COASTAL FRONT/SFC TROUGH. WILL AGAIN CONFINE A SLIGHT CHC POP
TO SE THIRD OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTN/EVE. HIGHS 90-95 INLAND, MID
TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST.

UPPER LOW WILL EJECT EAST FROM QUEBEC TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA
THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SCOOTING ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA. LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRANSITION
TO A QUASI-ZONAL SETUP BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. HAVE A SLIGHT TO LOW
END CHANCE POP FOR TUESDAY AFTN AND EVENING AS ATTENDANT WEAK
COOL FRONT SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIDES BY JUST TO OUR NORTH, WITH PW REMAINING
LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD. 310-315K THETA SFCS POINT TO BEST
LIFT/MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA (NRN
NECK/EASTERN SHORE), AND THUS HAVE GONE WITH LOW END CHC/30 POP
IN THIS AREA, TAPERING BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER SOUTH. ONLY
SLIGHT CHC POP FOR WED, WITH QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCES MOVE WEST
TO EAST FROM THE LWR OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE REGION. CONVECTION
WOULD BE ISO TO WIDELY SCT, AND HENCE REMAINING IN 20% RANGE FOR
NOW. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S.

SSW FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR INCREASING RH/DEWPOINT TEMPS...AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES TOP OUT ARND 100 EACH DAY THROUGH MIDWEEK
(HIGHEST WED).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH NIGHT/MORNG.
PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN CONUS WITH
TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC REGION. AS FOR
TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE LO/MID 90S WED TO MID/UPR 80S FRI AND
SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK TROUGHING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL WASH OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE NC COAST AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTN
THUNDERSTORMS TO KECG AND CIGS AROUND 6 KFT AGL. THE REST OF THE
TAF SITES WILL MAINTAIN A SCT CLOUD DECK BTWN 6-9 KFT AGL TODAY.
SKIES CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
WX PATTERN.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY AS
WEAK LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ALTHOUGH
THE TWO FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE INTO ONE ELONGATED TROUGH
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...BEST SHOWER CHANCES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK TROUGHING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL WASH OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. THE END RESULT WILL BE A VARIABLE WIND
DIRECTION AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-3 FT. MORE PROMINENT
SLY WINDS DEVELOP BY MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH TO THE NW-N AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SLOWLY MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WIND SPEEDS DURING MONDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10-15 KT BAY/RIVERS/SOUND AND 15-20 KT
OVER COASTAL WATERS. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SLY SURGE IS EXPECTED
FROM MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH LOW-END
SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 KT SHOULD BE
ANTICIPATED FOR ALL WATERS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT OVER
NRN COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT.
SCA FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE BAY AND AFOREMENTIONED NRN
COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY CURRITUCK SOUND. WAVES/SEAS SHOULD
BUILD TO 2-3 FT/3-4 FT RESPECTIVELY...UP TO 5 FT POSSIBLE FOR
NRN COASTAL WATERS OUT NEAR 20NM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK TROUGHING ALONG AND
JUST OFF THE COAST. EXPECT S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND
WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD



000
FXUS61 KLWX 020754
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
354 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT OVERHEAD MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK WHILE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE ALONG
IT...BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY. WEST-
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 80S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT LOW 90S IN THE IMMEDIATE WASHINGTON
DC/BALTIMORE METRO.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...SLIGHTLY MILDER OVER THE METRO CENTERS. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY
BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BECOME HOT. AFTERNOON READINGS WILL LIKELY REACH THE 90S IN
MOST AREAS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE DAY.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND IT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OUT OVERHEAD FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A
COUPLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND AND THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS WHERE FORCING MAY BE A BIT STRONGER ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
MIN TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S/60S IN THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE.

THE STALLED BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA WILL BE WEAK TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...LITTLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE A DEWPOINT GRADIENT AND WITH
HIGHER DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY A COUPLE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO SOUTHERN MARYLAND. EVEN ACROSS THESE
AREAS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED/SCATTERED SINCE
THE BOUNDARY WILL BE WEAK. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARBY WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL SEPARATE UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER
CANADA FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS
INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE AREA IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THESE DISTURBANCES WILL
INTERACT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING OF THESE ARE UNCERTAIN THIS FAR
OUT...BUT GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
MAY BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN LATER
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AGAIN...TIMING THIS FAR OUT IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR TO PERSIST TODAY INTO MONDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS IN THE 10-15KT RANGE
WILL BE POSSIBLE. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE MONDAY.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND IT
WILL REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH THURSDAY. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE
DRY. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT WILL INCREASE
WITH SOUTHERLY CHANNELING ON MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH STALL OUT NEAR THE WATERS MONDAY
NIGHT AND IT WILL REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HIGHER DUE TO THE NEARLY-FULL MOON...BUT
ANOMALIES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT TIDAL FLOODING WILL NOT BE A THREAT
THROUGH TODAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT WILL
ELEVATE TIDAL ANOMALIES ON MONDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT NOT
EXPECTING MINOR FLOODING. THIS POSSIBILITY WILL REQUIRE MONITORING
HOWEVER.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...BJL/KRW
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/KRW
MARINE...BJL/KRW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL/ADS/RCM



000
FXUS61 KLWX 020754
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
354 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT OVERHEAD MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK WHILE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE ALONG
IT...BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY. WEST-
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 80S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT LOW 90S IN THE IMMEDIATE WASHINGTON
DC/BALTIMORE METRO.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...SLIGHTLY MILDER OVER THE METRO CENTERS. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY
BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BECOME HOT. AFTERNOON READINGS WILL LIKELY REACH THE 90S IN
MOST AREAS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE DAY.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND IT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OUT OVERHEAD FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A
COUPLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND AND THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS WHERE FORCING MAY BE A BIT STRONGER ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
MIN TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S/60S IN THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE.

THE STALLED BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA WILL BE WEAK TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...LITTLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE A DEWPOINT GRADIENT AND WITH
HIGHER DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY A COUPLE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO SOUTHERN MARYLAND. EVEN ACROSS THESE
AREAS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED/SCATTERED SINCE
THE BOUNDARY WILL BE WEAK. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARBY WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL SEPARATE UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER
CANADA FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS
INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE AREA IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THESE DISTURBANCES WILL
INTERACT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING OF THESE ARE UNCERTAIN THIS FAR
OUT...BUT GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
MAY BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN LATER
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AGAIN...TIMING THIS FAR OUT IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR TO PERSIST TODAY INTO MONDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS IN THE 10-15KT RANGE
WILL BE POSSIBLE. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE MONDAY.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND IT
WILL REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH THURSDAY. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE
DRY. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT WILL INCREASE
WITH SOUTHERLY CHANNELING ON MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH STALL OUT NEAR THE WATERS MONDAY
NIGHT AND IT WILL REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HIGHER DUE TO THE NEARLY-FULL MOON...BUT
ANOMALIES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT TIDAL FLOODING WILL NOT BE A THREAT
THROUGH TODAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT WILL
ELEVATE TIDAL ANOMALIES ON MONDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT NOT
EXPECTING MINOR FLOODING. THIS POSSIBILITY WILL REQUIRE MONITORING
HOWEVER.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...BJL/KRW
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/KRW
MARINE...BJL/KRW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL/ADS/RCM




000
FXUS61 KLWX 020754
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
354 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT OVERHEAD MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK WHILE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE ALONG
IT...BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY. WEST-
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 80S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT LOW 90S IN THE IMMEDIATE WASHINGTON
DC/BALTIMORE METRO.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...SLIGHTLY MILDER OVER THE METRO CENTERS. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY
BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BECOME HOT. AFTERNOON READINGS WILL LIKELY REACH THE 90S IN
MOST AREAS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE DAY.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND IT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OUT OVERHEAD FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A
COUPLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND AND THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS WHERE FORCING MAY BE A BIT STRONGER ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
MIN TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S/60S IN THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE.

THE STALLED BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA WILL BE WEAK TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...LITTLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE A DEWPOINT GRADIENT AND WITH
HIGHER DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY A COUPLE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO SOUTHERN MARYLAND. EVEN ACROSS THESE
AREAS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED/SCATTERED SINCE
THE BOUNDARY WILL BE WEAK. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARBY WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL SEPARATE UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER
CANADA FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS
INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE AREA IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THESE DISTURBANCES WILL
INTERACT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING OF THESE ARE UNCERTAIN THIS FAR
OUT...BUT GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
MAY BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN LATER
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AGAIN...TIMING THIS FAR OUT IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR TO PERSIST TODAY INTO MONDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS IN THE 10-15KT RANGE
WILL BE POSSIBLE. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE MONDAY.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND IT
WILL REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH THURSDAY. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE
DRY. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT WILL INCREASE
WITH SOUTHERLY CHANNELING ON MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH STALL OUT NEAR THE WATERS MONDAY
NIGHT AND IT WILL REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HIGHER DUE TO THE NEARLY-FULL MOON...BUT
ANOMALIES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT TIDAL FLOODING WILL NOT BE A THREAT
THROUGH TODAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT WILL
ELEVATE TIDAL ANOMALIES ON MONDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT NOT
EXPECTING MINOR FLOODING. THIS POSSIBILITY WILL REQUIRE MONITORING
HOWEVER.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...BJL/KRW
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/KRW
MARINE...BJL/KRW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL/ADS/RCM



000
FXUS61 KRNK 020753
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
353 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
SINKS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...REACHING THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER BY
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 302 AM EDT SUNDAY...

FORECAST THIS PERIOD STILL CENTERS AROUND UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. FOR OUR AREA WILL SEE DRY WEATHER AGAIN DAY AND
WARM...HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...TO MID 80S VALLEYS...AND UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S PIEDMONT
INTO THE ROANOKE/LEXINGTON VA CORRIDOR.

THERE IS A COUPLE OF PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ALONG THE
TROUGH ALLOWING FOR CIRRUS. EXPECT TO SEE THIS STREAK OF CIRRUS
TODAY THOUGH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BE THE RULE.

TONIGHT...STILL LOOKING AT A QUIET WX NIGHT WITH CALM/LIGHT WINDS.
THE FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH A COUPLE DAYS OR SO AGO MAY SHIFT NWD
WITH A SFC WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. NOT SEEING ANY MOISTURE
THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SCATTERING OF LOWER CLOUDS TOWARD
SOUTHSIDE VA AND NC PIEDMONT LATE TONIGHT BUT MAJORITY OF MODEL
SOLUTIONS KEEP THE CLOUDS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA...SO WILL
MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOWS AGAIN GOING TO VARY FROM THE LOWER
50S DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO MID TO UPPER 50S REST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...EXCEPT LOWER 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER PEAKS OF SE WV AS
ENOUGH FLOW TO KEEP IT MIXED. THE PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS AND ROANOKE
VALLEY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG
EXPECTED AGAIN LATE IN THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO HOLD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE COUNTY THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE TROUGH WILL
BECOME LESS PRONOUNCED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK AS THE
CENTER PUSHES OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. REGARDLESS...THE PATTERN WILL
ALLOW US TO MAINTAIN A GENERAL WEST TO EAST UPPER LEVEL WINDFLOW FOR
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.

MONDAY WILL START DRY...BUT EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS TO PUSH
AGAINST THE WESTERN RIDGES DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE NOT
OPTIMISTIC THAT MUCH...IF ANY...OF THE RAINFALL WILL SURVIVE EAST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS THEY ENCOUNTER DRY AIR IN PLACE AND
DOWNSLOPE WINDFLOW. DOWNSLOPING AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE MID 80S MOST SPOTS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND AS HIGH AS THE MID 90S ACROSS THE
SOUTHSIDE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT...AND
SOME DISAGREEMENT REMAINS AS TO HOW FAR ACROSS OUR AREA THE FRONT
WILL SINK ON TUESDAY. THE CONSENSUS IS THAT THE FRONT WILL ADVANCE
TO NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER BY EVENING. AS SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460 DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THAT STATED...DO NOT EXPECT ANY STRONG RETURN OF
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND THEREFORE EXPECT CONVECTION TO
REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED AT BEST.

ATTENTION TURNS TO OUR WEST ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES APPROACH FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST. LATEST MODELS ARE FOCUSING ON ONE SUCH
DISTURBANCE...POTENTIALLY THE DECAYING REMNANTS OF A THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX RIDING UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE IN THE MODELS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS FOR TRACK...TIMING AND INTENSITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM EDT SUNDAY...

EAST-WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS ESTABLISHED OVER OR NEAR THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD AS ADDITIONAL
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVES AND/OR MESOSCALE VORTICITY CENTERS FROM
DECAYING OLD MIDWEST CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
ENERGY/SUPPORT TO MAINTAIN THREAT FOR DAILY SCATTERED CONVECTION.

STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT/POSITIONING OF EACH WAVE IN MAINLY ZONAL UPPER
FLOW WILL INFLUENCE DAILY POSITION OF DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...
EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER...AND EXTENT OF WARM OR COOL ADVECTION
DEPENDING ON POSITION RELATIVE TO FRONT.

HIGHEST THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THIS PERIOD APPEARS TO COME ON
FRIDAY...WHEN TWO OF THE MORE NOTABLE UPSTREAM WAVES ARRIVE...AND
THIS IS REFLECTED ACCORDINGLY IN GRIDS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.
OTHERWISE...A LOWER AND MORE GENERALIZED THREAT FOR DAILY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINTAINED INTO SATURDAY UNTIL REGIONAL/
MESOSCALE FEATURES BECOME BETTER RESOLVED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 120 AM EDT SUNDAY...

FORECAST FOR TERMINALS IS EXPECTED TO STAY VFR THIS PERIOD.
EXCEPTION WILL BE A FEW PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR FOG AT LWB/BCB THIS
MORNING BETWEEN 09-12Z. NO WINDS TO SPEAK OF AND EXPECT JUST SOME
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY...WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SCT CU/SC IN THE
MTNS BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT SATURDAY...

MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONT
WILL SET UP IN THE MID ATLANTIC WHICH COULD BRING A FEW SHRA/TSRA
BY TUESDAY...WITH PERHAPS A BIT MORE COVERAGE LATER WEDNESDAY AT
THIS POINT. THUS THE THREAT OF SUB-VFR REMAINS LOW UNTIL AROUND
MIDWEEK...EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL FOG POTENTIAL AT KLWB/KBCB EACH
MORNING BETWEEN 09-13Z.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF/WERT
AVIATION...DS/JH/WP



000
FXUS61 KRNK 020753
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
353 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
SINKS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...REACHING THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER BY
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 302 AM EDT SUNDAY...

FORECAST THIS PERIOD STILL CENTERS AROUND UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. FOR OUR AREA WILL SEE DRY WEATHER AGAIN DAY AND
WARM...HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...TO MID 80S VALLEYS...AND UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S PIEDMONT
INTO THE ROANOKE/LEXINGTON VA CORRIDOR.

THERE IS A COUPLE OF PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ALONG THE
TROUGH ALLOWING FOR CIRRUS. EXPECT TO SEE THIS STREAK OF CIRRUS
TODAY THOUGH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BE THE RULE.

TONIGHT...STILL LOOKING AT A QUIET WX NIGHT WITH CALM/LIGHT WINDS.
THE FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH A COUPLE DAYS OR SO AGO MAY SHIFT NWD
WITH A SFC WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. NOT SEEING ANY MOISTURE
THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SCATTERING OF LOWER CLOUDS TOWARD
SOUTHSIDE VA AND NC PIEDMONT LATE TONIGHT BUT MAJORITY OF MODEL
SOLUTIONS KEEP THE CLOUDS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA...SO WILL
MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOWS AGAIN GOING TO VARY FROM THE LOWER
50S DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO MID TO UPPER 50S REST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...EXCEPT LOWER 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER PEAKS OF SE WV AS
ENOUGH FLOW TO KEEP IT MIXED. THE PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS AND ROANOKE
VALLEY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG
EXPECTED AGAIN LATE IN THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO HOLD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE COUNTY THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE TROUGH WILL
BECOME LESS PRONOUNCED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK AS THE
CENTER PUSHES OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. REGARDLESS...THE PATTERN WILL
ALLOW US TO MAINTAIN A GENERAL WEST TO EAST UPPER LEVEL WINDFLOW FOR
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.

MONDAY WILL START DRY...BUT EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS TO PUSH
AGAINST THE WESTERN RIDGES DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE NOT
OPTIMISTIC THAT MUCH...IF ANY...OF THE RAINFALL WILL SURVIVE EAST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS THEY ENCOUNTER DRY AIR IN PLACE AND
DOWNSLOPE WINDFLOW. DOWNSLOPING AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE MID 80S MOST SPOTS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND AS HIGH AS THE MID 90S ACROSS THE
SOUTHSIDE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT...AND
SOME DISAGREEMENT REMAINS AS TO HOW FAR ACROSS OUR AREA THE FRONT
WILL SINK ON TUESDAY. THE CONSENSUS IS THAT THE FRONT WILL ADVANCE
TO NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER BY EVENING. AS SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460 DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THAT STATED...DO NOT EXPECT ANY STRONG RETURN OF
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND THEREFORE EXPECT CONVECTION TO
REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED AT BEST.

ATTENTION TURNS TO OUR WEST ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES APPROACH FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST. LATEST MODELS ARE FOCUSING ON ONE SUCH
DISTURBANCE...POTENTIALLY THE DECAYING REMNANTS OF A THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX RIDING UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE IN THE MODELS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS FOR TRACK...TIMING AND INTENSITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM EDT SUNDAY...

EAST-WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS ESTABLISHED OVER OR NEAR THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD AS ADDITIONAL
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVES AND/OR MESOSCALE VORTICITY CENTERS FROM
DECAYING OLD MIDWEST CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
ENERGY/SUPPORT TO MAINTAIN THREAT FOR DAILY SCATTERED CONVECTION.

STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT/POSITIONING OF EACH WAVE IN MAINLY ZONAL UPPER
FLOW WILL INFLUENCE DAILY POSITION OF DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...
EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER...AND EXTENT OF WARM OR COOL ADVECTION
DEPENDING ON POSITION RELATIVE TO FRONT.

HIGHEST THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THIS PERIOD APPEARS TO COME ON
FRIDAY...WHEN TWO OF THE MORE NOTABLE UPSTREAM WAVES ARRIVE...AND
THIS IS REFLECTED ACCORDINGLY IN GRIDS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.
OTHERWISE...A LOWER AND MORE GENERALIZED THREAT FOR DAILY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINTAINED INTO SATURDAY UNTIL REGIONAL/
MESOSCALE FEATURES BECOME BETTER RESOLVED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 120 AM EDT SUNDAY...

FORECAST FOR TERMINALS IS EXPECTED TO STAY VFR THIS PERIOD.
EXCEPTION WILL BE A FEW PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR FOG AT LWB/BCB THIS
MORNING BETWEEN 09-12Z. NO WINDS TO SPEAK OF AND EXPECT JUST SOME
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY...WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SCT CU/SC IN THE
MTNS BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT SATURDAY...

MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONT
WILL SET UP IN THE MID ATLANTIC WHICH COULD BRING A FEW SHRA/TSRA
BY TUESDAY...WITH PERHAPS A BIT MORE COVERAGE LATER WEDNESDAY AT
THIS POINT. THUS THE THREAT OF SUB-VFR REMAINS LOW UNTIL AROUND
MIDWEEK...EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL FOG POTENTIAL AT KLWB/KBCB EACH
MORNING BETWEEN 09-13Z.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF/WERT
AVIATION...DS/JH/WP



000
FXUS61 KRNK 020753
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
353 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
SINKS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...REACHING THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER BY
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 302 AM EDT SUNDAY...

FORECAST THIS PERIOD STILL CENTERS AROUND UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. FOR OUR AREA WILL SEE DRY WEATHER AGAIN DAY AND
WARM...HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...TO MID 80S VALLEYS...AND UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S PIEDMONT
INTO THE ROANOKE/LEXINGTON VA CORRIDOR.

THERE IS A COUPLE OF PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ALONG THE
TROUGH ALLOWING FOR CIRRUS. EXPECT TO SEE THIS STREAK OF CIRRUS
TODAY THOUGH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BE THE RULE.

TONIGHT...STILL LOOKING AT A QUIET WX NIGHT WITH CALM/LIGHT WINDS.
THE FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH A COUPLE DAYS OR SO AGO MAY SHIFT NWD
WITH A SFC WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. NOT SEEING ANY MOISTURE
THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SCATTERING OF LOWER CLOUDS TOWARD
SOUTHSIDE VA AND NC PIEDMONT LATE TONIGHT BUT MAJORITY OF MODEL
SOLUTIONS KEEP THE CLOUDS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA...SO WILL
MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOWS AGAIN GOING TO VARY FROM THE LOWER
50S DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO MID TO UPPER 50S REST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...EXCEPT LOWER 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER PEAKS OF SE WV AS
ENOUGH FLOW TO KEEP IT MIXED. THE PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS AND ROANOKE
VALLEY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG
EXPECTED AGAIN LATE IN THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO HOLD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE COUNTY THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE TROUGH WILL
BECOME LESS PRONOUNCED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK AS THE
CENTER PUSHES OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. REGARDLESS...THE PATTERN WILL
ALLOW US TO MAINTAIN A GENERAL WEST TO EAST UPPER LEVEL WINDFLOW FOR
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.

MONDAY WILL START DRY...BUT EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS TO PUSH
AGAINST THE WESTERN RIDGES DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE NOT
OPTIMISTIC THAT MUCH...IF ANY...OF THE RAINFALL WILL SURVIVE EAST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS THEY ENCOUNTER DRY AIR IN PLACE AND
DOWNSLOPE WINDFLOW. DOWNSLOPING AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE MID 80S MOST SPOTS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND AS HIGH AS THE MID 90S ACROSS THE
SOUTHSIDE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT...AND
SOME DISAGREEMENT REMAINS AS TO HOW FAR ACROSS OUR AREA THE FRONT
WILL SINK ON TUESDAY. THE CONSENSUS IS THAT THE FRONT WILL ADVANCE
TO NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER BY EVENING. AS SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460 DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THAT STATED...DO NOT EXPECT ANY STRONG RETURN OF
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND THEREFORE EXPECT CONVECTION TO
REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED AT BEST.

ATTENTION TURNS TO OUR WEST ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES APPROACH FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST. LATEST MODELS ARE FOCUSING ON ONE SUCH
DISTURBANCE...POTENTIALLY THE DECAYING REMNANTS OF A THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX RIDING UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE IN THE MODELS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS FOR TRACK...TIMING AND INTENSITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM EDT SUNDAY...

EAST-WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS ESTABLISHED OVER OR NEAR THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD AS ADDITIONAL
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVES AND/OR MESOSCALE VORTICITY CENTERS FROM
DECAYING OLD MIDWEST CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
ENERGY/SUPPORT TO MAINTAIN THREAT FOR DAILY SCATTERED CONVECTION.

STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT/POSITIONING OF EACH WAVE IN MAINLY ZONAL UPPER
FLOW WILL INFLUENCE DAILY POSITION OF DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...
EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER...AND EXTENT OF WARM OR COOL ADVECTION
DEPENDING ON POSITION RELATIVE TO FRONT.

HIGHEST THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THIS PERIOD APPEARS TO COME ON
FRIDAY...WHEN TWO OF THE MORE NOTABLE UPSTREAM WAVES ARRIVE...AND
THIS IS REFLECTED ACCORDINGLY IN GRIDS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.
OTHERWISE...A LOWER AND MORE GENERALIZED THREAT FOR DAILY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINTAINED INTO SATURDAY UNTIL REGIONAL/
MESOSCALE FEATURES BECOME BETTER RESOLVED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 120 AM EDT SUNDAY...

FORECAST FOR TERMINALS IS EXPECTED TO STAY VFR THIS PERIOD.
EXCEPTION WILL BE A FEW PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR FOG AT LWB/BCB THIS
MORNING BETWEEN 09-12Z. NO WINDS TO SPEAK OF AND EXPECT JUST SOME
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY...WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SCT CU/SC IN THE
MTNS BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT SATURDAY...

MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONT
WILL SET UP IN THE MID ATLANTIC WHICH COULD BRING A FEW SHRA/TSRA
BY TUESDAY...WITH PERHAPS A BIT MORE COVERAGE LATER WEDNESDAY AT
THIS POINT. THUS THE THREAT OF SUB-VFR REMAINS LOW UNTIL AROUND
MIDWEEK...EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL FOG POTENTIAL AT KLWB/KBCB EACH
MORNING BETWEEN 09-13Z.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF/WERT
AVIATION...DS/JH/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 020753
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
353 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
SINKS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...REACHING THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER BY
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 302 AM EDT SUNDAY...

FORECAST THIS PERIOD STILL CENTERS AROUND UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. FOR OUR AREA WILL SEE DRY WEATHER AGAIN DAY AND
WARM...HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...TO MID 80S VALLEYS...AND UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S PIEDMONT
INTO THE ROANOKE/LEXINGTON VA CORRIDOR.

THERE IS A COUPLE OF PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ALONG THE
TROUGH ALLOWING FOR CIRRUS. EXPECT TO SEE THIS STREAK OF CIRRUS
TODAY THOUGH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BE THE RULE.

TONIGHT...STILL LOOKING AT A QUIET WX NIGHT WITH CALM/LIGHT WINDS.
THE FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH A COUPLE DAYS OR SO AGO MAY SHIFT NWD
WITH A SFC WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. NOT SEEING ANY MOISTURE
THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SCATTERING OF LOWER CLOUDS TOWARD
SOUTHSIDE VA AND NC PIEDMONT LATE TONIGHT BUT MAJORITY OF MODEL
SOLUTIONS KEEP THE CLOUDS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA...SO WILL
MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOWS AGAIN GOING TO VARY FROM THE LOWER
50S DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO MID TO UPPER 50S REST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...EXCEPT LOWER 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER PEAKS OF SE WV AS
ENOUGH FLOW TO KEEP IT MIXED. THE PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS AND ROANOKE
VALLEY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG
EXPECTED AGAIN LATE IN THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO HOLD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE COUNTY THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE TROUGH WILL
BECOME LESS PRONOUNCED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK AS THE
CENTER PUSHES OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. REGARDLESS...THE PATTERN WILL
ALLOW US TO MAINTAIN A GENERAL WEST TO EAST UPPER LEVEL WINDFLOW FOR
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.

MONDAY WILL START DRY...BUT EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS TO PUSH
AGAINST THE WESTERN RIDGES DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE NOT
OPTIMISTIC THAT MUCH...IF ANY...OF THE RAINFALL WILL SURVIVE EAST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS THEY ENCOUNTER DRY AIR IN PLACE AND
DOWNSLOPE WINDFLOW. DOWNSLOPING AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE MID 80S MOST SPOTS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND AS HIGH AS THE MID 90S ACROSS THE
SOUTHSIDE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT...AND
SOME DISAGREEMENT REMAINS AS TO HOW FAR ACROSS OUR AREA THE FRONT
WILL SINK ON TUESDAY. THE CONSENSUS IS THAT THE FRONT WILL ADVANCE
TO NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER BY EVENING. AS SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460 DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THAT STATED...DO NOT EXPECT ANY STRONG RETURN OF
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND THEREFORE EXPECT CONVECTION TO
REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED AT BEST.

ATTENTION TURNS TO OUR WEST ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES APPROACH FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST. LATEST MODELS ARE FOCUSING ON ONE SUCH
DISTURBANCE...POTENTIALLY THE DECAYING REMNANTS OF A THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX RIDING UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE IN THE MODELS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS FOR TRACK...TIMING AND INTENSITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM EDT SUNDAY...

EAST-WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS ESTABLISHED OVER OR NEAR THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD AS ADDITIONAL
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVES AND/OR MESOSCALE VORTICITY CENTERS FROM
DECAYING OLD MIDWEST CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
ENERGY/SUPPORT TO MAINTAIN THREAT FOR DAILY SCATTERED CONVECTION.

STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT/POSITIONING OF EACH WAVE IN MAINLY ZONAL UPPER
FLOW WILL INFLUENCE DAILY POSITION OF DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...
EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER...AND EXTENT OF WARM OR COOL ADVECTION
DEPENDING ON POSITION RELATIVE TO FRONT.

HIGHEST THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THIS PERIOD APPEARS TO COME ON
FRIDAY...WHEN TWO OF THE MORE NOTABLE UPSTREAM WAVES ARRIVE...AND
THIS IS REFLECTED ACCORDINGLY IN GRIDS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.
OTHERWISE...A LOWER AND MORE GENERALIZED THREAT FOR DAILY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINTAINED INTO SATURDAY UNTIL REGIONAL/
MESOSCALE FEATURES BECOME BETTER RESOLVED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 120 AM EDT SUNDAY...

FORECAST FOR TERMINALS IS EXPECTED TO STAY VFR THIS PERIOD.
EXCEPTION WILL BE A FEW PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR FOG AT LWB/BCB THIS
MORNING BETWEEN 09-12Z. NO WINDS TO SPEAK OF AND EXPECT JUST SOME
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY...WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SCT CU/SC IN THE
MTNS BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT SATURDAY...

MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONT
WILL SET UP IN THE MID ATLANTIC WHICH COULD BRING A FEW SHRA/TSRA
BY TUESDAY...WITH PERHAPS A BIT MORE COVERAGE LATER WEDNESDAY AT
THIS POINT. THUS THE THREAT OF SUB-VFR REMAINS LOW UNTIL AROUND
MIDWEEK...EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL FOG POTENTIAL AT KLWB/KBCB EACH
MORNING BETWEEN 09-13Z.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF/WERT
AVIATION...DS/JH/WP




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020536
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
136 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK BOUNDARY CROSSES THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
PLEASANT MID SUMMER EVE ACRS THE FA. VERY WK SFC TROUGH TO SLIDE
ACRS THE FA OVRNGT. KEPT SLGT CHC POPS INVOF PORTIONS OF THE ERN
SHR...OTRW DRY-SKC TO PARTLY CLOUDY OVRNGT. LIMITED FG
PTNTL...THOUGH WILL COVER PSBLTY WNW OF RIC. LO TEMPS FM THE
M-U60S...XCP L70S AT THE CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
H5 RIDGE TO DOMINATE SUN AND MON BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
WEAKNESS ACROSS ERN NC INVOF ALBEMARLE SND THAT JUST MAY BE ENUF
TRIGGER FOR SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS XTREME SERN VA / NE NC
SUN THEN EXPANDING A BIT TO THE SERN HALF OF FA MON. OTW...PT TO
MSTLY SUNNY BOTH DAYS WITH ABOVE NRML TMPS. H85 TMPS SPRT HIGHS
SUN IN THE U80S-L90S WITH L-M90S MON. LOWS M60S-L70S.

MODELS DIFFER A BIT WRT THE AVBL MSTR AND TIMING OF THE NXT FRNT
ACROSS THE RGN TUE. LATEST TRENDS ARE FOR A DAYTIME FROPA WITH NOT
MUCH MSTR AVBL UNTIL AFTR 18Z...BUT BY THEN THE GREATEST SPRT FOR
CONVECTION TO DVLP SHIFTS SOUTH INTO NC. FOR NOW...KEPT SLGHT CHC
POPS IN GRIDS. ANTHR HOT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE L-M90S.

GIVEN THE FCSTD DP TMPS...HEAT INDEX VALUES TOP OUT ARND 100 BOTH
MON / TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH NIGHT/MORNG.
PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN CONUS WITH
TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC REGION. AS FOR
TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE LO/MID 90S WED TO MID/UPR 80S FRI AND
SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK TROUGHING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL WASH OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE NC COAST AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTN
THUNDERSTORMS TO KECG AND CIGS AROUND 6 KFT AGL. THE REST OF THE
TAF SITES WILL MAINTAIN A SCT CLOUD DECK BTWN 6-9 KFT AGL TODAY.
SKIES CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
WX PATTERN.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY AS
WEAK LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ALTHOUGH
THE TWO FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE INTO ONE ELONGATED TROUGH
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...BEST SHOWER CHANCES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. A WEAK FRNT/TROF OF LO PRES
APPROACHES FM THE NW THIS AFTN/EVENG. A WEAK SLY SURGE IS EXPECTED
OVER THE BAY AHEAD OF THE FRNT...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY JUST
BLO SCA THRESHOLDS (~15 KT). THE FRNT SLIDES OFFSHORE AND WEAKENS
INTO ERLY SUN...WITH WINDS SUN AOB 10 KT AND SEABREEZES DEVELOPING.
WAVES OVER THE BAY 1-2 FT AND SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS 2-3 FT. SLY FLOW
RETURNS BY MON...WITH 10-15 KT WINDS OVER THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND AND
15-20 KT OVER CSTL WTRS. SEAS OVER NRN CSTL WTRS MAY APPROACH 5 FT
LATE IN THE DAY INTO MON NIGHT. WEAK HI PRES RETURNS TO THE REGION
TUE THRU WED WITH S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4
FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...MAS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020536
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
136 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK BOUNDARY CROSSES THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
PLEASANT MID SUMMER EVE ACRS THE FA. VERY WK SFC TROUGH TO SLIDE
ACRS THE FA OVRNGT. KEPT SLGT CHC POPS INVOF PORTIONS OF THE ERN
SHR...OTRW DRY-SKC TO PARTLY CLOUDY OVRNGT. LIMITED FG
PTNTL...THOUGH WILL COVER PSBLTY WNW OF RIC. LO TEMPS FM THE
M-U60S...XCP L70S AT THE CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
H5 RIDGE TO DOMINATE SUN AND MON BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
WEAKNESS ACROSS ERN NC INVOF ALBEMARLE SND THAT JUST MAY BE ENUF
TRIGGER FOR SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS XTREME SERN VA / NE NC
SUN THEN EXPANDING A BIT TO THE SERN HALF OF FA MON. OTW...PT TO
MSTLY SUNNY BOTH DAYS WITH ABOVE NRML TMPS. H85 TMPS SPRT HIGHS
SUN IN THE U80S-L90S WITH L-M90S MON. LOWS M60S-L70S.

MODELS DIFFER A BIT WRT THE AVBL MSTR AND TIMING OF THE NXT FRNT
ACROSS THE RGN TUE. LATEST TRENDS ARE FOR A DAYTIME FROPA WITH NOT
MUCH MSTR AVBL UNTIL AFTR 18Z...BUT BY THEN THE GREATEST SPRT FOR
CONVECTION TO DVLP SHIFTS SOUTH INTO NC. FOR NOW...KEPT SLGHT CHC
POPS IN GRIDS. ANTHR HOT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE L-M90S.

GIVEN THE FCSTD DP TMPS...HEAT INDEX VALUES TOP OUT ARND 100 BOTH
MON / TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH NIGHT/MORNG.
PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN CONUS WITH
TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC REGION. AS FOR
TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE LO/MID 90S WED TO MID/UPR 80S FRI AND
SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK TROUGHING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL WASH OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE NC COAST AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTN
THUNDERSTORMS TO KECG AND CIGS AROUND 6 KFT AGL. THE REST OF THE
TAF SITES WILL MAINTAIN A SCT CLOUD DECK BTWN 6-9 KFT AGL TODAY.
SKIES CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
WX PATTERN.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY AS
WEAK LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ALTHOUGH
THE TWO FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE INTO ONE ELONGATED TROUGH
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...BEST SHOWER CHANCES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. A WEAK FRNT/TROF OF LO PRES
APPROACHES FM THE NW THIS AFTN/EVENG. A WEAK SLY SURGE IS EXPECTED
OVER THE BAY AHEAD OF THE FRNT...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY JUST
BLO SCA THRESHOLDS (~15 KT). THE FRNT SLIDES OFFSHORE AND WEAKENS
INTO ERLY SUN...WITH WINDS SUN AOB 10 KT AND SEABREEZES DEVELOPING.
WAVES OVER THE BAY 1-2 FT AND SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS 2-3 FT. SLY FLOW
RETURNS BY MON...WITH 10-15 KT WINDS OVER THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND AND
15-20 KT OVER CSTL WTRS. SEAS OVER NRN CSTL WTRS MAY APPROACH 5 FT
LATE IN THE DAY INTO MON NIGHT. WEAK HI PRES RETURNS TO THE REGION
TUE THRU WED WITH S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4
FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...MAS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020536
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
136 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK BOUNDARY CROSSES THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
PLEASANT MID SUMMER EVE ACRS THE FA. VERY WK SFC TROUGH TO SLIDE
ACRS THE FA OVRNGT. KEPT SLGT CHC POPS INVOF PORTIONS OF THE ERN
SHR...OTRW DRY-SKC TO PARTLY CLOUDY OVRNGT. LIMITED FG
PTNTL...THOUGH WILL COVER PSBLTY WNW OF RIC. LO TEMPS FM THE
M-U60S...XCP L70S AT THE CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
H5 RIDGE TO DOMINATE SUN AND MON BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
WEAKNESS ACROSS ERN NC INVOF ALBEMARLE SND THAT JUST MAY BE ENUF
TRIGGER FOR SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS XTREME SERN VA / NE NC
SUN THEN EXPANDING A BIT TO THE SERN HALF OF FA MON. OTW...PT TO
MSTLY SUNNY BOTH DAYS WITH ABOVE NRML TMPS. H85 TMPS SPRT HIGHS
SUN IN THE U80S-L90S WITH L-M90S MON. LOWS M60S-L70S.

MODELS DIFFER A BIT WRT THE AVBL MSTR AND TIMING OF THE NXT FRNT
ACROSS THE RGN TUE. LATEST TRENDS ARE FOR A DAYTIME FROPA WITH NOT
MUCH MSTR AVBL UNTIL AFTR 18Z...BUT BY THEN THE GREATEST SPRT FOR
CONVECTION TO DVLP SHIFTS SOUTH INTO NC. FOR NOW...KEPT SLGHT CHC
POPS IN GRIDS. ANTHR HOT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE L-M90S.

GIVEN THE FCSTD DP TMPS...HEAT INDEX VALUES TOP OUT ARND 100 BOTH
MON / TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH NIGHT/MORNG.
PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN CONUS WITH
TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC REGION. AS FOR
TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE LO/MID 90S WED TO MID/UPR 80S FRI AND
SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK TROUGHING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL WASH OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE NC COAST AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTN
THUNDERSTORMS TO KECG AND CIGS AROUND 6 KFT AGL. THE REST OF THE
TAF SITES WILL MAINTAIN A SCT CLOUD DECK BTWN 6-9 KFT AGL TODAY.
SKIES CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
WX PATTERN.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY AS
WEAK LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ALTHOUGH
THE TWO FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE INTO ONE ELONGATED TROUGH
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...BEST SHOWER CHANCES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. A WEAK FRNT/TROF OF LO PRES
APPROACHES FM THE NW THIS AFTN/EVENG. A WEAK SLY SURGE IS EXPECTED
OVER THE BAY AHEAD OF THE FRNT...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY JUST
BLO SCA THRESHOLDS (~15 KT). THE FRNT SLIDES OFFSHORE AND WEAKENS
INTO ERLY SUN...WITH WINDS SUN AOB 10 KT AND SEABREEZES DEVELOPING.
WAVES OVER THE BAY 1-2 FT AND SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS 2-3 FT. SLY FLOW
RETURNS BY MON...WITH 10-15 KT WINDS OVER THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND AND
15-20 KT OVER CSTL WTRS. SEAS OVER NRN CSTL WTRS MAY APPROACH 5 FT
LATE IN THE DAY INTO MON NIGHT. WEAK HI PRES RETURNS TO THE REGION
TUE THRU WED WITH S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4
FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...MAS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020536
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
136 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK BOUNDARY CROSSES THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
PLEASANT MID SUMMER EVE ACRS THE FA. VERY WK SFC TROUGH TO SLIDE
ACRS THE FA OVRNGT. KEPT SLGT CHC POPS INVOF PORTIONS OF THE ERN
SHR...OTRW DRY-SKC TO PARTLY CLOUDY OVRNGT. LIMITED FG
PTNTL...THOUGH WILL COVER PSBLTY WNW OF RIC. LO TEMPS FM THE
M-U60S...XCP L70S AT THE CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
H5 RIDGE TO DOMINATE SUN AND MON BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
WEAKNESS ACROSS ERN NC INVOF ALBEMARLE SND THAT JUST MAY BE ENUF
TRIGGER FOR SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS XTREME SERN VA / NE NC
SUN THEN EXPANDING A BIT TO THE SERN HALF OF FA MON. OTW...PT TO
MSTLY SUNNY BOTH DAYS WITH ABOVE NRML TMPS. H85 TMPS SPRT HIGHS
SUN IN THE U80S-L90S WITH L-M90S MON. LOWS M60S-L70S.

MODELS DIFFER A BIT WRT THE AVBL MSTR AND TIMING OF THE NXT FRNT
ACROSS THE RGN TUE. LATEST TRENDS ARE FOR A DAYTIME FROPA WITH NOT
MUCH MSTR AVBL UNTIL AFTR 18Z...BUT BY THEN THE GREATEST SPRT FOR
CONVECTION TO DVLP SHIFTS SOUTH INTO NC. FOR NOW...KEPT SLGHT CHC
POPS IN GRIDS. ANTHR HOT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE L-M90S.

GIVEN THE FCSTD DP TMPS...HEAT INDEX VALUES TOP OUT ARND 100 BOTH
MON / TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH NIGHT/MORNG.
PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN CONUS WITH
TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC REGION. AS FOR
TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE LO/MID 90S WED TO MID/UPR 80S FRI AND
SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK TROUGHING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL WASH OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE NC COAST AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTN
THUNDERSTORMS TO KECG AND CIGS AROUND 6 KFT AGL. THE REST OF THE
TAF SITES WILL MAINTAIN A SCT CLOUD DECK BTWN 6-9 KFT AGL TODAY.
SKIES CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
WX PATTERN.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY AS
WEAK LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ALTHOUGH
THE TWO FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE INTO ONE ELONGATED TROUGH
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...BEST SHOWER CHANCES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. A WEAK FRNT/TROF OF LO PRES
APPROACHES FM THE NW THIS AFTN/EVENG. A WEAK SLY SURGE IS EXPECTED
OVER THE BAY AHEAD OF THE FRNT...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY JUST
BLO SCA THRESHOLDS (~15 KT). THE FRNT SLIDES OFFSHORE AND WEAKENS
INTO ERLY SUN...WITH WINDS SUN AOB 10 KT AND SEABREEZES DEVELOPING.
WAVES OVER THE BAY 1-2 FT AND SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS 2-3 FT. SLY FLOW
RETURNS BY MON...WITH 10-15 KT WINDS OVER THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND AND
15-20 KT OVER CSTL WTRS. SEAS OVER NRN CSTL WTRS MAY APPROACH 5 FT
LATE IN THE DAY INTO MON NIGHT. WEAK HI PRES RETURNS TO THE REGION
TUE THRU WED WITH S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4
FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...MAS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 020523
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
123 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
REMAIN IN PLACE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
PASSES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN STALL OVER OR NEAR
THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 113 AM EDT SUNDAY...

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...THOUGH A FEW MORE HIGHER CLOUDS
TRACKING ACROSS KY/WV SHOULD STREAK OVER US DURING THE MORNING.
SHOULD NOT SEE ANY IMPACT ON TEMPS WHICH WERE RUNNING A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN FORECAST...SO ADJUSTED DOWN SOME INTO THE
MORNING. STILL LOOKING AT UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S DEEPER HIGHER
VALLEYS IN THE WEST...LIKE BURKES GARDEN WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
AS OF 1030 PM SATURDAY...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. MADE SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO MIN
TEMPS AND HOURLY TEMPS AS SOME OF THE MORE URBAN AREAS APPEARED A
LITTLE TO COOL FOR MIN TEMPS GIVEN THE WARM TEMPS OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND SLOW DECLINE RATE AT THE CURRENT HOUR.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...

WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CROSSING THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF DRIER/COOLER AIR OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EAST AND SETTLES ABOUT OVERHEAD THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS BY DAWN SUNDAY.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW ANY RESIDUAL CU TO FADE WITH LOSS OF HEATING AS DRIER
AIR ADVECTS IN WHILE ALSO HELPING WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT
PERHAPS NOT ON THE RIDGES UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH EVEN
COOLER AIR AT 85H THAN SEEN BEFORE LIKELY TO MAKE FOR GREAT RADIATIONAL
COOLING WEST LATE WITH A LIGHT NORTH/NE BREEZE LINGERING OUT EAST IN
SPOTS. LATEST MOS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS WITH MAINLY LOW/MID 60S EAST AND
COOL 50S TO AROUND 60 WEST. HOWEVER A FEW UPPER 40S POSSIBLE DEEPEST
WESTERN VALLEYS PENDING ANY LATE NIGHT RIVER FOG AND RESIDUAL WESTERN
SLOPE STRATO-CU THAT MAY LINGER.

SURFACE HIGH WILL BE OVERHEAD FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER
WARM BUT DRY DAY WITH OVERALL LOW HUMIDITY UNDER MAINLY SUNNY SKIES. A
WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE RIDING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE 5H TROUGH COULD
PRODUCE SOME LOW CLOUDS NW EARLY BEFORE MIXING OUT. ALSO MAY SEE JUST
ENOUGH RETURN SW FLOW AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST LATE TO PROMPT A BIT MORE
CU OVER SW SECTIONS BUT WITHOUT ANY POP MENTION FOR NOW GIVEN DRYNESS.
SHOULD BE ANOTHER LARGE DIURNAL SWING TO TEMPS AS 850 MB VALUES START
TO REBOUND WHILE HIGHS AIDED BY HEATING OF DRY AIR AND WEAK EASTERN
DOWNSLOPE. THIS SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS SO STAYING CLOSE TO
PERSISTENCE WITH MOSTLY 80S MOUNTAINS AND UPPER 80S/LOW 90S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT SATURDAY...

BROAD UPPER TROF EXPECTED TO LINGER FROM THE HUDSON BAY AREA SOUTH
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROFS HELP TO SLOWLY AMPLIFY AND DEEPEN
FEATURE.

MOST OF THE ENERGY AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WAVES WILL
REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY NORTH OF THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA TO
MAINTAIN A MAINLY DRY FORECAST FOR MOST AREAS...BUT INFLUENCE OF
THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL OF THE WAVES PIVOTING EAST THROUGH THE UPPER
AND LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH
ATTENDANT COOL FRONT...STILL WARRANTS SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE TO
MAINTAIN A REFLECTION OF AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A THREAT FOR
WIDELY SCATTERED LATE DAY AND NIGHTTIME SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS
INTO UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE WESTERN BLUE RIDGE NORTH INTO THE
ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS.

DESPITE SOME MODEL DEPICTIONS...WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
RELATIVE DRY LOWER TROPOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE WAVE SHOULD LIMIT ANY
POTENTIAL FOR SPILL-OVER INTO DOWNSLOPE AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE ON MONDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY PRE-FRONTAL WINDS EXPECTED TO ALLOW 850
MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE +22-23C RANGE IN MOST
AREAS...DRIVING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PIEDMONT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...UNLIKE PAST SEVERAL
WEEKS...DEW POINTS STILL EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LACKLUSTER...
MAINLY IN 60S...AS OPPOSED TO MORE OPPRESSIVE 70S EXPERIENCED
EARLIER.

AS SHORT WAVE TROF LIFTS NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE BLACKSBURG
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...DECAYING COOL FRONT LIKELY TO STALL
OVER OR NEAR THE VA/NC STATE LINE AS UPPER FLOW REVERTS TO MORE
OF A ZONAL CONFIGURATION. PROXIMITY OF OLD FRONT...AND SOME LOW
LEVEL POOLING OF MOISTURE IN REGION OF CONFLUENCE MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO SPARK ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN THE
FORECAST AREA...MOST NOTABLY IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING AND LOCALIZED UPSLOPING WILL AID IN VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT...
ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS STILL LIKELY TO REMAIN PRECIPITATION FREE.

SOME WEAK POST-FRONTAL COOL ADVECTION AND CLOUDS MAY HELP TO LOWER
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MOUNTAINS A DEGREE OR TWO FROM THOSE
EXPERIENCED ON MONDAY...BUT CONTINUED GOOD INSOLATION AND NEGLIGIBLE
PUSH OF COOLER AIR INTO SOUTHSIDE VA AND NORTH CENTRAL NC SHOULD
ENSURE ANOTHER DAY OF AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 90S IN THOSE AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT SATURDAY...

EAST-WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE EXPECTED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER OR
NEAR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD AS
ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM SHORT WAVES AND/OR MESOSCALE VORTICITY CENTERS
FROM DECAYING OLD MIDWEST CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
ENERGY/SUPPORT TO MAINTAIN THREAT FOR DAILY SCATTERED CONVECTION.

STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT/POSITIONING OF EACH WAVE IN MAINLY ZONAL
UPPER FLOW WILL INFLUENCE DAILY POSITION OF DECAYING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER...AND EXTENT OF WARM OR COOL
ADVECTION DEPENDING ON POSITION RELATIVE TO FRONT.

HIGHEST THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION AT THE PRESENT TIME APPEARS TO
COME ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY WHEN TWO
OF THE MORE NOTABLE UPSTREAM WAVES ARRIVE...AND THIS REFLECTED
ACCORDINGLY IN GRIDS FOR THESE TIMEFRAMES. OTHERWISE...A LOWER AND
MORE GENERALIZED THREAT FOR DAILY PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINTAINED
INTO SATURDAY UNTIL REGIONAL/MESOSCALE FEATURES BECOME BETTER
RESOLVED.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 120 AM EDT SUNDAY...

FORECAST FOR TERMINALS IS EXPECTED TO STAY VFR THIS PERIOD.
EXCEPTION WILL BE A FEW PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR FOG AT LWB/BCB THIS
MORNING BETWEEN 09-12Z. NO WINDS TO SPEAK OF AND EXPECT JUST SOME
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY...WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SCT CU/SC IN THE
MTNS BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT SATURDAY...

MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONT
WILL SET UP IN THE MID ATLANTIC WHICH COULD BRING A FEW SHRA/TSRA
BY TUESDAY...WITH PERHAPS A BIT MORE COVERAGE LATER WEDNESDAY AT
THIS POINT. THUS THE THREAT OF SUB-VFR REMAINS LOW UNTIL AROUND
MIDWEEK...EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL FOG POTENTIAL AT KLWB/KBCB EACH
MORNING BETWEEN 09-13Z.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/RAB/WP
SHORT TERM...WERT
LONG TERM...WERT
AVIATION...DS/JH/WP



000
FXUS61 KRNK 020523
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
123 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
REMAIN IN PLACE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
PASSES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN STALL OVER OR NEAR
THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 113 AM EDT SUNDAY...

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...THOUGH A FEW MORE HIGHER CLOUDS
TRACKING ACROSS KY/WV SHOULD STREAK OVER US DURING THE MORNING.
SHOULD NOT SEE ANY IMPACT ON TEMPS WHICH WERE RUNNING A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN FORECAST...SO ADJUSTED DOWN SOME INTO THE
MORNING. STILL LOOKING AT UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S DEEPER HIGHER
VALLEYS IN THE WEST...LIKE BURKES GARDEN WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
AS OF 1030 PM SATURDAY...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. MADE SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO MIN
TEMPS AND HOURLY TEMPS AS SOME OF THE MORE URBAN AREAS APPEARED A
LITTLE TO COOL FOR MIN TEMPS GIVEN THE WARM TEMPS OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND SLOW DECLINE RATE AT THE CURRENT HOUR.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...

WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CROSSING THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF DRIER/COOLER AIR OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EAST AND SETTLES ABOUT OVERHEAD THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS BY DAWN SUNDAY.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW ANY RESIDUAL CU TO FADE WITH LOSS OF HEATING AS DRIER
AIR ADVECTS IN WHILE ALSO HELPING WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT
PERHAPS NOT ON THE RIDGES UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH EVEN
COOLER AIR AT 85H THAN SEEN BEFORE LIKELY TO MAKE FOR GREAT RADIATIONAL
COOLING WEST LATE WITH A LIGHT NORTH/NE BREEZE LINGERING OUT EAST IN
SPOTS. LATEST MOS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS WITH MAINLY LOW/MID 60S EAST AND
COOL 50S TO AROUND 60 WEST. HOWEVER A FEW UPPER 40S POSSIBLE DEEPEST
WESTERN VALLEYS PENDING ANY LATE NIGHT RIVER FOG AND RESIDUAL WESTERN
SLOPE STRATO-CU THAT MAY LINGER.

SURFACE HIGH WILL BE OVERHEAD FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER
WARM BUT DRY DAY WITH OVERALL LOW HUMIDITY UNDER MAINLY SUNNY SKIES. A
WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE RIDING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE 5H TROUGH COULD
PRODUCE SOME LOW CLOUDS NW EARLY BEFORE MIXING OUT. ALSO MAY SEE JUST
ENOUGH RETURN SW FLOW AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST LATE TO PROMPT A BIT MORE
CU OVER SW SECTIONS BUT WITHOUT ANY POP MENTION FOR NOW GIVEN DRYNESS.
SHOULD BE ANOTHER LARGE DIURNAL SWING TO TEMPS AS 850 MB VALUES START
TO REBOUND WHILE HIGHS AIDED BY HEATING OF DRY AIR AND WEAK EASTERN
DOWNSLOPE. THIS SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS SO STAYING CLOSE TO
PERSISTENCE WITH MOSTLY 80S MOUNTAINS AND UPPER 80S/LOW 90S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT SATURDAY...

BROAD UPPER TROF EXPECTED TO LINGER FROM THE HUDSON BAY AREA SOUTH
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROFS HELP TO SLOWLY AMPLIFY AND DEEPEN
FEATURE.

MOST OF THE ENERGY AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WAVES WILL
REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY NORTH OF THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA TO
MAINTAIN A MAINLY DRY FORECAST FOR MOST AREAS...BUT INFLUENCE OF
THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL OF THE WAVES PIVOTING EAST THROUGH THE UPPER
AND LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH
ATTENDANT COOL FRONT...STILL WARRANTS SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE TO
MAINTAIN A REFLECTION OF AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A THREAT FOR
WIDELY SCATTERED LATE DAY AND NIGHTTIME SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS
INTO UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE WESTERN BLUE RIDGE NORTH INTO THE
ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS.

DESPITE SOME MODEL DEPICTIONS...WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
RELATIVE DRY LOWER TROPOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE WAVE SHOULD LIMIT ANY
POTENTIAL FOR SPILL-OVER INTO DOWNSLOPE AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE ON MONDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY PRE-FRONTAL WINDS EXPECTED TO ALLOW 850
MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE +22-23C RANGE IN MOST
AREAS...DRIVING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PIEDMONT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...UNLIKE PAST SEVERAL
WEEKS...DEW POINTS STILL EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LACKLUSTER...
MAINLY IN 60S...AS OPPOSED TO MORE OPPRESSIVE 70S EXPERIENCED
EARLIER.

AS SHORT WAVE TROF LIFTS NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE BLACKSBURG
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...DECAYING COOL FRONT LIKELY TO STALL
OVER OR NEAR THE VA/NC STATE LINE AS UPPER FLOW REVERTS TO MORE
OF A ZONAL CONFIGURATION. PROXIMITY OF OLD FRONT...AND SOME LOW
LEVEL POOLING OF MOISTURE IN REGION OF CONFLUENCE MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO SPARK ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN THE
FORECAST AREA...MOST NOTABLY IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING AND LOCALIZED UPSLOPING WILL AID IN VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT...
ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS STILL LIKELY TO REMAIN PRECIPITATION FREE.

SOME WEAK POST-FRONTAL COOL ADVECTION AND CLOUDS MAY HELP TO LOWER
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MOUNTAINS A DEGREE OR TWO FROM THOSE
EXPERIENCED ON MONDAY...BUT CONTINUED GOOD INSOLATION AND NEGLIGIBLE
PUSH OF COOLER AIR INTO SOUTHSIDE VA AND NORTH CENTRAL NC SHOULD
ENSURE ANOTHER DAY OF AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 90S IN THOSE AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT SATURDAY...

EAST-WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE EXPECTED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER OR
NEAR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD AS
ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM SHORT WAVES AND/OR MESOSCALE VORTICITY CENTERS
FROM DECAYING OLD MIDWEST CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
ENERGY/SUPPORT TO MAINTAIN THREAT FOR DAILY SCATTERED CONVECTION.

STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT/POSITIONING OF EACH WAVE IN MAINLY ZONAL
UPPER FLOW WILL INFLUENCE DAILY POSITION OF DECAYING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER...AND EXTENT OF WARM OR COOL
ADVECTION DEPENDING ON POSITION RELATIVE TO FRONT.

HIGHEST THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION AT THE PRESENT TIME APPEARS TO
COME ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY WHEN TWO
OF THE MORE NOTABLE UPSTREAM WAVES ARRIVE...AND THIS REFLECTED
ACCORDINGLY IN GRIDS FOR THESE TIMEFRAMES. OTHERWISE...A LOWER AND
MORE GENERALIZED THREAT FOR DAILY PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINTAINED
INTO SATURDAY UNTIL REGIONAL/MESOSCALE FEATURES BECOME BETTER
RESOLVED.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 120 AM EDT SUNDAY...

FORECAST FOR TERMINALS IS EXPECTED TO STAY VFR THIS PERIOD.
EXCEPTION WILL BE A FEW PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR FOG AT LWB/BCB THIS
MORNING BETWEEN 09-12Z. NO WINDS TO SPEAK OF AND EXPECT JUST SOME
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY...WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SCT CU/SC IN THE
MTNS BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT SATURDAY...

MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONT
WILL SET UP IN THE MID ATLANTIC WHICH COULD BRING A FEW SHRA/TSRA
BY TUESDAY...WITH PERHAPS A BIT MORE COVERAGE LATER WEDNESDAY AT
THIS POINT. THUS THE THREAT OF SUB-VFR REMAINS LOW UNTIL AROUND
MIDWEEK...EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL FOG POTENTIAL AT KLWB/KBCB EACH
MORNING BETWEEN 09-13Z.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/RAB/WP
SHORT TERM...WERT
LONG TERM...WERT
AVIATION...DS/JH/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 020523
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
123 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
REMAIN IN PLACE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
PASSES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN STALL OVER OR NEAR
THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 113 AM EDT SUNDAY...

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...THOUGH A FEW MORE HIGHER CLOUDS
TRACKING ACROSS KY/WV SHOULD STREAK OVER US DURING THE MORNING.
SHOULD NOT SEE ANY IMPACT ON TEMPS WHICH WERE RUNNING A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN FORECAST...SO ADJUSTED DOWN SOME INTO THE
MORNING. STILL LOOKING AT UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S DEEPER HIGHER
VALLEYS IN THE WEST...LIKE BURKES GARDEN WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
AS OF 1030 PM SATURDAY...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. MADE SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO MIN
TEMPS AND HOURLY TEMPS AS SOME OF THE MORE URBAN AREAS APPEARED A
LITTLE TO COOL FOR MIN TEMPS GIVEN THE WARM TEMPS OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND SLOW DECLINE RATE AT THE CURRENT HOUR.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...

WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CROSSING THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF DRIER/COOLER AIR OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EAST AND SETTLES ABOUT OVERHEAD THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS BY DAWN SUNDAY.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW ANY RESIDUAL CU TO FADE WITH LOSS OF HEATING AS DRIER
AIR ADVECTS IN WHILE ALSO HELPING WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT
PERHAPS NOT ON THE RIDGES UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH EVEN
COOLER AIR AT 85H THAN SEEN BEFORE LIKELY TO MAKE FOR GREAT RADIATIONAL
COOLING WEST LATE WITH A LIGHT NORTH/NE BREEZE LINGERING OUT EAST IN
SPOTS. LATEST MOS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS WITH MAINLY LOW/MID 60S EAST AND
COOL 50S TO AROUND 60 WEST. HOWEVER A FEW UPPER 40S POSSIBLE DEEPEST
WESTERN VALLEYS PENDING ANY LATE NIGHT RIVER FOG AND RESIDUAL WESTERN
SLOPE STRATO-CU THAT MAY LINGER.

SURFACE HIGH WILL BE OVERHEAD FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER
WARM BUT DRY DAY WITH OVERALL LOW HUMIDITY UNDER MAINLY SUNNY SKIES. A
WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE RIDING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE 5H TROUGH COULD
PRODUCE SOME LOW CLOUDS NW EARLY BEFORE MIXING OUT. ALSO MAY SEE JUST
ENOUGH RETURN SW FLOW AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST LATE TO PROMPT A BIT MORE
CU OVER SW SECTIONS BUT WITHOUT ANY POP MENTION FOR NOW GIVEN DRYNESS.
SHOULD BE ANOTHER LARGE DIURNAL SWING TO TEMPS AS 850 MB VALUES START
TO REBOUND WHILE HIGHS AIDED BY HEATING OF DRY AIR AND WEAK EASTERN
DOWNSLOPE. THIS SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS SO STAYING CLOSE TO
PERSISTENCE WITH MOSTLY 80S MOUNTAINS AND UPPER 80S/LOW 90S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT SATURDAY...

BROAD UPPER TROF EXPECTED TO LINGER FROM THE HUDSON BAY AREA SOUTH
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROFS HELP TO SLOWLY AMPLIFY AND DEEPEN
FEATURE.

MOST OF THE ENERGY AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WAVES WILL
REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY NORTH OF THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA TO
MAINTAIN A MAINLY DRY FORECAST FOR MOST AREAS...BUT INFLUENCE OF
THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL OF THE WAVES PIVOTING EAST THROUGH THE UPPER
AND LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH
ATTENDANT COOL FRONT...STILL WARRANTS SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE TO
MAINTAIN A REFLECTION OF AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A THREAT FOR
WIDELY SCATTERED LATE DAY AND NIGHTTIME SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS
INTO UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE WESTERN BLUE RIDGE NORTH INTO THE
ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS.

DESPITE SOME MODEL DEPICTIONS...WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
RELATIVE DRY LOWER TROPOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE WAVE SHOULD LIMIT ANY
POTENTIAL FOR SPILL-OVER INTO DOWNSLOPE AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE ON MONDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY PRE-FRONTAL WINDS EXPECTED TO ALLOW 850
MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE +22-23C RANGE IN MOST
AREAS...DRIVING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PIEDMONT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...UNLIKE PAST SEVERAL
WEEKS...DEW POINTS STILL EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LACKLUSTER...
MAINLY IN 60S...AS OPPOSED TO MORE OPPRESSIVE 70S EXPERIENCED
EARLIER.

AS SHORT WAVE TROF LIFTS NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE BLACKSBURG
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...DECAYING COOL FRONT LIKELY TO STALL
OVER OR NEAR THE VA/NC STATE LINE AS UPPER FLOW REVERTS TO MORE
OF A ZONAL CONFIGURATION. PROXIMITY OF OLD FRONT...AND SOME LOW
LEVEL POOLING OF MOISTURE IN REGION OF CONFLUENCE MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO SPARK ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN THE
FORECAST AREA...MOST NOTABLY IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING AND LOCALIZED UPSLOPING WILL AID IN VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT...
ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS STILL LIKELY TO REMAIN PRECIPITATION FREE.

SOME WEAK POST-FRONTAL COOL ADVECTION AND CLOUDS MAY HELP TO LOWER
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MOUNTAINS A DEGREE OR TWO FROM THOSE
EXPERIENCED ON MONDAY...BUT CONTINUED GOOD INSOLATION AND NEGLIGIBLE
PUSH OF COOLER AIR INTO SOUTHSIDE VA AND NORTH CENTRAL NC SHOULD
ENSURE ANOTHER DAY OF AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 90S IN THOSE AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT SATURDAY...

EAST-WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE EXPECTED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER OR
NEAR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD AS
ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM SHORT WAVES AND/OR MESOSCALE VORTICITY CENTERS
FROM DECAYING OLD MIDWEST CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
ENERGY/SUPPORT TO MAINTAIN THREAT FOR DAILY SCATTERED CONVECTION.

STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT/POSITIONING OF EACH WAVE IN MAINLY ZONAL
UPPER FLOW WILL INFLUENCE DAILY POSITION OF DECAYING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER...AND EXTENT OF WARM OR COOL
ADVECTION DEPENDING ON POSITION RELATIVE TO FRONT.

HIGHEST THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION AT THE PRESENT TIME APPEARS TO
COME ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY WHEN TWO
OF THE MORE NOTABLE UPSTREAM WAVES ARRIVE...AND THIS REFLECTED
ACCORDINGLY IN GRIDS FOR THESE TIMEFRAMES. OTHERWISE...A LOWER AND
MORE GENERALIZED THREAT FOR DAILY PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINTAINED
INTO SATURDAY UNTIL REGIONAL/MESOSCALE FEATURES BECOME BETTER
RESOLVED.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 120 AM EDT SUNDAY...

FORECAST FOR TERMINALS IS EXPECTED TO STAY VFR THIS PERIOD.
EXCEPTION WILL BE A FEW PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR FOG AT LWB/BCB THIS
MORNING BETWEEN 09-12Z. NO WINDS TO SPEAK OF AND EXPECT JUST SOME
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY...WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SCT CU/SC IN THE
MTNS BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT SATURDAY...

MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONT
WILL SET UP IN THE MID ATLANTIC WHICH COULD BRING A FEW SHRA/TSRA
BY TUESDAY...WITH PERHAPS A BIT MORE COVERAGE LATER WEDNESDAY AT
THIS POINT. THUS THE THREAT OF SUB-VFR REMAINS LOW UNTIL AROUND
MIDWEEK...EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL FOG POTENTIAL AT KLWB/KBCB EACH
MORNING BETWEEN 09-13Z.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/RAB/WP
SHORT TERM...WERT
LONG TERM...WERT
AVIATION...DS/JH/WP



000
FXUS61 KRNK 020246
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1046 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
REMAIN IN PLACE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
PASSES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN STALL OVER OR NEAR
THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT SATURDAY...

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. MADE SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO MIN
TEMPS AND HOURLY TEMPS AS SOME OF THE MORE URBAN AREAS APPEARED A
LITTLE TO COOL FOR MIN TEMPS GIVEN THE WARM TEMPS OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND SLOW DECLINE RATE AT THE CURRENT HOUR.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...

WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CROSSING THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF DRIER/COOLER AIR OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EAST AND SETTLES ABOUT OVERHEAD THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS BY DAWN SUNDAY.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW ANY RESIDUAL CU TO FADE WITH LOSS OF HEATING AS DRIER
AIR ADVECTS IN WHILE ALSO HELPING WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT
PERHAPS NOT ON THE RIDGES UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH EVEN
COOLER AIR AT 85H THAN SEEN BEFORE LIKELY TO MAKE FOR GREAT RADIATIONAL
COOLING WEST LATE WITH A LIGHT NORTH/NE BREEZE LINGERING OUT EAST IN
SPOTS. LATEST MOS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS WITH MAINLY LOW/MID 60S EAST AND
COOL 50S TO AROUND 60 WEST. HOWEVER A FEW UPPER 40S POSSIBLE DEEPEST
WESTERN VALLEYS PENDING ANY LATE NIGHT RIVER FOG AND RESIDUAL WESTERN
SLOPE STRATO-CU THAT MAY LINGER.

SURFACE HIGH WILL BE OVERHEAD FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER
WARM BUT DRY DAY WITH OVERALL LOW HUMIDITY UNDER MAINLY SUNNY SKIES. A
WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE RIDING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE 5H TROUGH COULD
PRODUCE SOME LOW CLOUDS NW EARLY BEFORE MIXING OUT. ALSO MAY SEE JUST
ENOUGH RETURN SW FLOW AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST LATE TO PROMPT A BIT MORE
CU OVER SW SECTIONS BUT WITHOUT ANY POP MENTION FOR NOW GIVEN DRYNESS.
SHOULD BE ANOTHER LARGE DIURNAL SWING TO TEMPS AS 850 MB VALUES START
TO REBOUND WHILE HIGHS AIDED BY HEATING OF DRY AIR AND WEAK EASTERN
DOWNSLOPE. THIS SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS SO STAYING CLOSE TO
PERSISTENCE WITH MOSTLY 80S MOUNTAINS AND UPPER 80S/LOW 90S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT SATURDAY...

BROAD UPPER TROF EXPECTED TO LINGER FROM THE HUDSON BAY AREA SOUTH
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROFS HELP TO SLOWLY AMPLIFY AND DEEPEN
FEATURE.

MOST OF THE ENERGY AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WAVES WILL
REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY NORTH OF THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA TO
MAINTAIN A MAINLY DRY FORECAST FOR MOST AREAS...BUT INFLUENCE OF
THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL OF THE WAVES PIVOTING EAST THROUGH THE UPPER
AND LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH
ATTENDANT COOL FRONT...STILL WARRANTS SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE TO
MAINTAIN A REFLECTION OF AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A THREAT FOR
WIDELY SCATTERED LATE DAY AND NIGHTTIME SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS
INTO UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE WESTERN BLUE RIDGE NORTH INTO THE
ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS.

DESPITE SOME MODEL DEPICTIONS...WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
RELATIVE DRY LOWER TROPOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE WAVE SHOULD LIMIT ANY
POTENTIAL FOR SPILL-OVER INTO DOWNSLOPE AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE ON MONDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY PRE-FRONTAL WINDS EXPECTED TO ALLOW 850
MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE +22-23C RANGE IN MOST
AREAS...DRIVING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PIEDMONT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...UNLIKE PAST SEVERAL
WEEKS...DEW POINTS STILL EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LACKLUSTER...
MAINLY IN 60S...AS OPPOSED TO MORE OPPRESSIVE 70S EXPERIENCED
EARLIER.

AS SHORT WAVE TROF LIFTS NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE BLACKSBURG
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...DECAYING COOL FRONT LIKELY TO STALL
OVER OR NEAR THE VA/NC STATE LINE AS UPPER FLOW REVERTS TO MORE
OF A ZONAL CONFIGURATION. PROXIMITY OF OLD FRONT...AND SOME LOW
LEVEL POOLING OF MOISTURE IN REGION OF CONFLUENCE MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO SPARK ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN THE
FORECAST AREA...MOST NOTABLY IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING AND LOCALIZED UPSLOPING WILL AID IN VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT...
ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS STILL LIKELY TO REMAIN PRECIPITATION FREE.

SOME WEAK POST-FRONTAL COOL ADVECTION AND CLOUDS MAY HELP TO LOWER
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MOUNTAINS A DEGREE OR TWO FROM THOSE
EXPERIENCED ON MONDAY...BUT CONTINUED GOOD INSOLATION AND NEGLIGIBLE
PUSH OF COOLER AIR INTO SOUTHSIDE VA AND NORTH CENTRAL NC SHOULD
ENSURE ANOTHER DAY OF AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 90S IN THOSE AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT SATURDAY...

EAST-WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE EXPECTED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER OR
NEAR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD AS
ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM SHORT WAVES AND/OR MESOSCALE VORTICITY CENTERS
FROM DECAYING OLD MIDWEST CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
ENERGY/SUPPORT TO MAINTAIN THREAT FOR DAILY SCATTERED CONVECTION.

STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT/POSITIONING OF EACH WAVE IN MAINLY ZONAL
UPPER FLOW WILL INFLUENCE DAILY POSITION OF DECAYING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER...AND EXTENT OF WARM OR COOL
ADVECTION DEPENDING ON POSITION RELATIVE TO FRONT.

HIGHEST THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION AT THE PRESENT TIME APPEARS TO
COME ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY WHEN TWO
OF THE MORE NOTABLE UPSTREAM WAVES ARRIVE...AND THIS REFLECTED
ACCORDINGLY IN GRIDS FOR THESE TIMEFRAMES. OTHERWISE...A LOWER AND
MORE GENERALIZED THREAT FOR DAILY PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINTAINED
INTO SATURDAY UNTIL REGIONAL/MESOSCALE FEATURES BECOME BETTER
RESOLVED.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 725 PM EDT SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP YIELD VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS
DURING THE 00Z-00Z/8PM-8PM TAF TIME PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING PATCHY MOUNTAIN VALLEY AND RIVER FOG
DEVELOPMENT. ANY PATCHY FOG WILL DISSIPATE SOON AFTER SUNRISE
SUNDAY. WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT SATURDAY...

MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONT
WILL SET UP IN THE MID ATLANTIC WHICH COULD BRING A FEW SHRA/TSRA
BY TUESDAY...WITH PERHAPS A BIT MORE COVERAGE LATER WEDNESDAY AT
THIS POINT. THUS THE THREAT OF SUB-VFR REMAINS LOW UNTIL AROUND
MIDWEEK...EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL FOG POTENTIAL AT KLWB/KBCB EACH
MORNING BETWEEN 09-13Z.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/RAB
SHORT TERM...WERT
LONG TERM...WERT
AVIATION...DS/JH/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 020246
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1046 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
REMAIN IN PLACE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
PASSES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN STALL OVER OR NEAR
THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT SATURDAY...

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. MADE SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO MIN
TEMPS AND HOURLY TEMPS AS SOME OF THE MORE URBAN AREAS APPEARED A
LITTLE TO COOL FOR MIN TEMPS GIVEN THE WARM TEMPS OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND SLOW DECLINE RATE AT THE CURRENT HOUR.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...

WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CROSSING THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF DRIER/COOLER AIR OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EAST AND SETTLES ABOUT OVERHEAD THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS BY DAWN SUNDAY.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW ANY RESIDUAL CU TO FADE WITH LOSS OF HEATING AS DRIER
AIR ADVECTS IN WHILE ALSO HELPING WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT
PERHAPS NOT ON THE RIDGES UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH EVEN
COOLER AIR AT 85H THAN SEEN BEFORE LIKELY TO MAKE FOR GREAT RADIATIONAL
COOLING WEST LATE WITH A LIGHT NORTH/NE BREEZE LINGERING OUT EAST IN
SPOTS. LATEST MOS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS WITH MAINLY LOW/MID 60S EAST AND
COOL 50S TO AROUND 60 WEST. HOWEVER A FEW UPPER 40S POSSIBLE DEEPEST
WESTERN VALLEYS PENDING ANY LATE NIGHT RIVER FOG AND RESIDUAL WESTERN
SLOPE STRATO-CU THAT MAY LINGER.

SURFACE HIGH WILL BE OVERHEAD FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER
WARM BUT DRY DAY WITH OVERALL LOW HUMIDITY UNDER MAINLY SUNNY SKIES. A
WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE RIDING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE 5H TROUGH COULD
PRODUCE SOME LOW CLOUDS NW EARLY BEFORE MIXING OUT. ALSO MAY SEE JUST
ENOUGH RETURN SW FLOW AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST LATE TO PROMPT A BIT MORE
CU OVER SW SECTIONS BUT WITHOUT ANY POP MENTION FOR NOW GIVEN DRYNESS.
SHOULD BE ANOTHER LARGE DIURNAL SWING TO TEMPS AS 850 MB VALUES START
TO REBOUND WHILE HIGHS AIDED BY HEATING OF DRY AIR AND WEAK EASTERN
DOWNSLOPE. THIS SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS SO STAYING CLOSE TO
PERSISTENCE WITH MOSTLY 80S MOUNTAINS AND UPPER 80S/LOW 90S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT SATURDAY...

BROAD UPPER TROF EXPECTED TO LINGER FROM THE HUDSON BAY AREA SOUTH
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROFS HELP TO SLOWLY AMPLIFY AND DEEPEN
FEATURE.

MOST OF THE ENERGY AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WAVES WILL
REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY NORTH OF THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA TO
MAINTAIN A MAINLY DRY FORECAST FOR MOST AREAS...BUT INFLUENCE OF
THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL OF THE WAVES PIVOTING EAST THROUGH THE UPPER
AND LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH
ATTENDANT COOL FRONT...STILL WARRANTS SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE TO
MAINTAIN A REFLECTION OF AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A THREAT FOR
WIDELY SCATTERED LATE DAY AND NIGHTTIME SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS
INTO UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE WESTERN BLUE RIDGE NORTH INTO THE
ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS.

DESPITE SOME MODEL DEPICTIONS...WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
RELATIVE DRY LOWER TROPOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE WAVE SHOULD LIMIT ANY
POTENTIAL FOR SPILL-OVER INTO DOWNSLOPE AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE ON MONDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY PRE-FRONTAL WINDS EXPECTED TO ALLOW 850
MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE +22-23C RANGE IN MOST
AREAS...DRIVING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PIEDMONT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...UNLIKE PAST SEVERAL
WEEKS...DEW POINTS STILL EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LACKLUSTER...
MAINLY IN 60S...AS OPPOSED TO MORE OPPRESSIVE 70S EXPERIENCED
EARLIER.

AS SHORT WAVE TROF LIFTS NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE BLACKSBURG
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...DECAYING COOL FRONT LIKELY TO STALL
OVER OR NEAR THE VA/NC STATE LINE AS UPPER FLOW REVERTS TO MORE
OF A ZONAL CONFIGURATION. PROXIMITY OF OLD FRONT...AND SOME LOW
LEVEL POOLING OF MOISTURE IN REGION OF CONFLUENCE MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO SPARK ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN THE
FORECAST AREA...MOST NOTABLY IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING AND LOCALIZED UPSLOPING WILL AID IN VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT...
ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS STILL LIKELY TO REMAIN PRECIPITATION FREE.

SOME WEAK POST-FRONTAL COOL ADVECTION AND CLOUDS MAY HELP TO LOWER
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MOUNTAINS A DEGREE OR TWO FROM THOSE
EXPERIENCED ON MONDAY...BUT CONTINUED GOOD INSOLATION AND NEGLIGIBLE
PUSH OF COOLER AIR INTO SOUTHSIDE VA AND NORTH CENTRAL NC SHOULD
ENSURE ANOTHER DAY OF AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 90S IN THOSE AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT SATURDAY...

EAST-WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE EXPECTED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER OR
NEAR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD AS
ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM SHORT WAVES AND/OR MESOSCALE VORTICITY CENTERS
FROM DECAYING OLD MIDWEST CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
ENERGY/SUPPORT TO MAINTAIN THREAT FOR DAILY SCATTERED CONVECTION.

STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT/POSITIONING OF EACH WAVE IN MAINLY ZONAL
UPPER FLOW WILL INFLUENCE DAILY POSITION OF DECAYING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER...AND EXTENT OF WARM OR COOL
ADVECTION DEPENDING ON POSITION RELATIVE TO FRONT.

HIGHEST THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION AT THE PRESENT TIME APPEARS TO
COME ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY WHEN TWO
OF THE MORE NOTABLE UPSTREAM WAVES ARRIVE...AND THIS REFLECTED
ACCORDINGLY IN GRIDS FOR THESE TIMEFRAMES. OTHERWISE...A LOWER AND
MORE GENERALIZED THREAT FOR DAILY PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINTAINED
INTO SATURDAY UNTIL REGIONAL/MESOSCALE FEATURES BECOME BETTER
RESOLVED.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 725 PM EDT SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP YIELD VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS
DURING THE 00Z-00Z/8PM-8PM TAF TIME PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING PATCHY MOUNTAIN VALLEY AND RIVER FOG
DEVELOPMENT. ANY PATCHY FOG WILL DISSIPATE SOON AFTER SUNRISE
SUNDAY. WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT SATURDAY...

MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONT
WILL SET UP IN THE MID ATLANTIC WHICH COULD BRING A FEW SHRA/TSRA
BY TUESDAY...WITH PERHAPS A BIT MORE COVERAGE LATER WEDNESDAY AT
THIS POINT. THUS THE THREAT OF SUB-VFR REMAINS LOW UNTIL AROUND
MIDWEEK...EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL FOG POTENTIAL AT KLWB/KBCB EACH
MORNING BETWEEN 09-13Z.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/RAB
SHORT TERM...WERT
LONG TERM...WERT
AVIATION...DS/JH/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 020246
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1046 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
REMAIN IN PLACE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
PASSES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN STALL OVER OR NEAR
THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT SATURDAY...

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. MADE SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO MIN
TEMPS AND HOURLY TEMPS AS SOME OF THE MORE URBAN AREAS APPEARED A
LITTLE TO COOL FOR MIN TEMPS GIVEN THE WARM TEMPS OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND SLOW DECLINE RATE AT THE CURRENT HOUR.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...

WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CROSSING THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF DRIER/COOLER AIR OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EAST AND SETTLES ABOUT OVERHEAD THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS BY DAWN SUNDAY.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW ANY RESIDUAL CU TO FADE WITH LOSS OF HEATING AS DRIER
AIR ADVECTS IN WHILE ALSO HELPING WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT
PERHAPS NOT ON THE RIDGES UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH EVEN
COOLER AIR AT 85H THAN SEEN BEFORE LIKELY TO MAKE FOR GREAT RADIATIONAL
COOLING WEST LATE WITH A LIGHT NORTH/NE BREEZE LINGERING OUT EAST IN
SPOTS. LATEST MOS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS WITH MAINLY LOW/MID 60S EAST AND
COOL 50S TO AROUND 60 WEST. HOWEVER A FEW UPPER 40S POSSIBLE DEEPEST
WESTERN VALLEYS PENDING ANY LATE NIGHT RIVER FOG AND RESIDUAL WESTERN
SLOPE STRATO-CU THAT MAY LINGER.

SURFACE HIGH WILL BE OVERHEAD FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER
WARM BUT DRY DAY WITH OVERALL LOW HUMIDITY UNDER MAINLY SUNNY SKIES. A
WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE RIDING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE 5H TROUGH COULD
PRODUCE SOME LOW CLOUDS NW EARLY BEFORE MIXING OUT. ALSO MAY SEE JUST
ENOUGH RETURN SW FLOW AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST LATE TO PROMPT A BIT MORE
CU OVER SW SECTIONS BUT WITHOUT ANY POP MENTION FOR NOW GIVEN DRYNESS.
SHOULD BE ANOTHER LARGE DIURNAL SWING TO TEMPS AS 850 MB VALUES START
TO REBOUND WHILE HIGHS AIDED BY HEATING OF DRY AIR AND WEAK EASTERN
DOWNSLOPE. THIS SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS SO STAYING CLOSE TO
PERSISTENCE WITH MOSTLY 80S MOUNTAINS AND UPPER 80S/LOW 90S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT SATURDAY...

BROAD UPPER TROF EXPECTED TO LINGER FROM THE HUDSON BAY AREA SOUTH
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROFS HELP TO SLOWLY AMPLIFY AND DEEPEN
FEATURE.

MOST OF THE ENERGY AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WAVES WILL
REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY NORTH OF THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA TO
MAINTAIN A MAINLY DRY FORECAST FOR MOST AREAS...BUT INFLUENCE OF
THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL OF THE WAVES PIVOTING EAST THROUGH THE UPPER
AND LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH
ATTENDANT COOL FRONT...STILL WARRANTS SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE TO
MAINTAIN A REFLECTION OF AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A THREAT FOR
WIDELY SCATTERED LATE DAY AND NIGHTTIME SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS
INTO UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE WESTERN BLUE RIDGE NORTH INTO THE
ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS.

DESPITE SOME MODEL DEPICTIONS...WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
RELATIVE DRY LOWER TROPOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE WAVE SHOULD LIMIT ANY
POTENTIAL FOR SPILL-OVER INTO DOWNSLOPE AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE ON MONDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY PRE-FRONTAL WINDS EXPECTED TO ALLOW 850
MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE +22-23C RANGE IN MOST
AREAS...DRIVING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PIEDMONT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...UNLIKE PAST SEVERAL
WEEKS...DEW POINTS STILL EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LACKLUSTER...
MAINLY IN 60S...AS OPPOSED TO MORE OPPRESSIVE 70S EXPERIENCED
EARLIER.

AS SHORT WAVE TROF LIFTS NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE BLACKSBURG
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...DECAYING COOL FRONT LIKELY TO STALL
OVER OR NEAR THE VA/NC STATE LINE AS UPPER FLOW REVERTS TO MORE
OF A ZONAL CONFIGURATION. PROXIMITY OF OLD FRONT...AND SOME LOW
LEVEL POOLING OF MOISTURE IN REGION OF CONFLUENCE MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO SPARK ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN THE
FORECAST AREA...MOST NOTABLY IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING AND LOCALIZED UPSLOPING WILL AID IN VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT...
ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS STILL LIKELY TO REMAIN PRECIPITATION FREE.

SOME WEAK POST-FRONTAL COOL ADVECTION AND CLOUDS MAY HELP TO LOWER
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MOUNTAINS A DEGREE OR TWO FROM THOSE
EXPERIENCED ON MONDAY...BUT CONTINUED GOOD INSOLATION AND NEGLIGIBLE
PUSH OF COOLER AIR INTO SOUTHSIDE VA AND NORTH CENTRAL NC SHOULD
ENSURE ANOTHER DAY OF AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 90S IN THOSE AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT SATURDAY...

EAST-WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE EXPECTED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER OR
NEAR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD AS
ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM SHORT WAVES AND/OR MESOSCALE VORTICITY CENTERS
FROM DECAYING OLD MIDWEST CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
ENERGY/SUPPORT TO MAINTAIN THREAT FOR DAILY SCATTERED CONVECTION.

STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT/POSITIONING OF EACH WAVE IN MAINLY ZONAL
UPPER FLOW WILL INFLUENCE DAILY POSITION OF DECAYING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER...AND EXTENT OF WARM OR COOL
ADVECTION DEPENDING ON POSITION RELATIVE TO FRONT.

HIGHEST THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION AT THE PRESENT TIME APPEARS TO
COME ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY WHEN TWO
OF THE MORE NOTABLE UPSTREAM WAVES ARRIVE...AND THIS REFLECTED
ACCORDINGLY IN GRIDS FOR THESE TIMEFRAMES. OTHERWISE...A LOWER AND
MORE GENERALIZED THREAT FOR DAILY PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINTAINED
INTO SATURDAY UNTIL REGIONAL/MESOSCALE FEATURES BECOME BETTER
RESOLVED.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 725 PM EDT SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP YIELD VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS
DURING THE 00Z-00Z/8PM-8PM TAF TIME PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING PATCHY MOUNTAIN VALLEY AND RIVER FOG
DEVELOPMENT. ANY PATCHY FOG WILL DISSIPATE SOON AFTER SUNRISE
SUNDAY. WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT SATURDAY...

MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONT
WILL SET UP IN THE MID ATLANTIC WHICH COULD BRING A FEW SHRA/TSRA
BY TUESDAY...WITH PERHAPS A BIT MORE COVERAGE LATER WEDNESDAY AT
THIS POINT. THUS THE THREAT OF SUB-VFR REMAINS LOW UNTIL AROUND
MIDWEEK...EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL FOG POTENTIAL AT KLWB/KBCB EACH
MORNING BETWEEN 09-13Z.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/RAB
SHORT TERM...WERT
LONG TERM...WERT
AVIATION...DS/JH/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 020246
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1046 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
REMAIN IN PLACE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
PASSES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN STALL OVER OR NEAR
THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT SATURDAY...

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. MADE SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO MIN
TEMPS AND HOURLY TEMPS AS SOME OF THE MORE URBAN AREAS APPEARED A
LITTLE TO COOL FOR MIN TEMPS GIVEN THE WARM TEMPS OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND SLOW DECLINE RATE AT THE CURRENT HOUR.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...

WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CROSSING THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF DRIER/COOLER AIR OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EAST AND SETTLES ABOUT OVERHEAD THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS BY DAWN SUNDAY.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW ANY RESIDUAL CU TO FADE WITH LOSS OF HEATING AS DRIER
AIR ADVECTS IN WHILE ALSO HELPING WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT
PERHAPS NOT ON THE RIDGES UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH EVEN
COOLER AIR AT 85H THAN SEEN BEFORE LIKELY TO MAKE FOR GREAT RADIATIONAL
COOLING WEST LATE WITH A LIGHT NORTH/NE BREEZE LINGERING OUT EAST IN
SPOTS. LATEST MOS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS WITH MAINLY LOW/MID 60S EAST AND
COOL 50S TO AROUND 60 WEST. HOWEVER A FEW UPPER 40S POSSIBLE DEEPEST
WESTERN VALLEYS PENDING ANY LATE NIGHT RIVER FOG AND RESIDUAL WESTERN
SLOPE STRATO-CU THAT MAY LINGER.

SURFACE HIGH WILL BE OVERHEAD FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER
WARM BUT DRY DAY WITH OVERALL LOW HUMIDITY UNDER MAINLY SUNNY SKIES. A
WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE RIDING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE 5H TROUGH COULD
PRODUCE SOME LOW CLOUDS NW EARLY BEFORE MIXING OUT. ALSO MAY SEE JUST
ENOUGH RETURN SW FLOW AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST LATE TO PROMPT A BIT MORE
CU OVER SW SECTIONS BUT WITHOUT ANY POP MENTION FOR NOW GIVEN DRYNESS.
SHOULD BE ANOTHER LARGE DIURNAL SWING TO TEMPS AS 850 MB VALUES START
TO REBOUND WHILE HIGHS AIDED BY HEATING OF DRY AIR AND WEAK EASTERN
DOWNSLOPE. THIS SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS SO STAYING CLOSE TO
PERSISTENCE WITH MOSTLY 80S MOUNTAINS AND UPPER 80S/LOW 90S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT SATURDAY...

BROAD UPPER TROF EXPECTED TO LINGER FROM THE HUDSON BAY AREA SOUTH
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROFS HELP TO SLOWLY AMPLIFY AND DEEPEN
FEATURE.

MOST OF THE ENERGY AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WAVES WILL
REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY NORTH OF THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA TO
MAINTAIN A MAINLY DRY FORECAST FOR MOST AREAS...BUT INFLUENCE OF
THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL OF THE WAVES PIVOTING EAST THROUGH THE UPPER
AND LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH
ATTENDANT COOL FRONT...STILL WARRANTS SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE TO
MAINTAIN A REFLECTION OF AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A THREAT FOR
WIDELY SCATTERED LATE DAY AND NIGHTTIME SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS
INTO UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE WESTERN BLUE RIDGE NORTH INTO THE
ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS.

DESPITE SOME MODEL DEPICTIONS...WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
RELATIVE DRY LOWER TROPOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE WAVE SHOULD LIMIT ANY
POTENTIAL FOR SPILL-OVER INTO DOWNSLOPE AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE ON MONDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY PRE-FRONTAL WINDS EXPECTED TO ALLOW 850
MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE +22-23C RANGE IN MOST
AREAS...DRIVING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PIEDMONT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...UNLIKE PAST SEVERAL
WEEKS...DEW POINTS STILL EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LACKLUSTER...
MAINLY IN 60S...AS OPPOSED TO MORE OPPRESSIVE 70S EXPERIENCED
EARLIER.

AS SHORT WAVE TROF LIFTS NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE BLACKSBURG
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...DECAYING COOL FRONT LIKELY TO STALL
OVER OR NEAR THE VA/NC STATE LINE AS UPPER FLOW REVERTS TO MORE
OF A ZONAL CONFIGURATION. PROXIMITY OF OLD FRONT...AND SOME LOW
LEVEL POOLING OF MOISTURE IN REGION OF CONFLUENCE MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO SPARK ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN THE
FORECAST AREA...MOST NOTABLY IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING AND LOCALIZED UPSLOPING WILL AID IN VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT...
ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS STILL LIKELY TO REMAIN PRECIPITATION FREE.

SOME WEAK POST-FRONTAL COOL ADVECTION AND CLOUDS MAY HELP TO LOWER
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MOUNTAINS A DEGREE OR TWO FROM THOSE
EXPERIENCED ON MONDAY...BUT CONTINUED GOOD INSOLATION AND NEGLIGIBLE
PUSH OF COOLER AIR INTO SOUTHSIDE VA AND NORTH CENTRAL NC SHOULD
ENSURE ANOTHER DAY OF AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 90S IN THOSE AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT SATURDAY...

EAST-WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE EXPECTED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER OR
NEAR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD AS
ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM SHORT WAVES AND/OR MESOSCALE VORTICITY CENTERS
FROM DECAYING OLD MIDWEST CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
ENERGY/SUPPORT TO MAINTAIN THREAT FOR DAILY SCATTERED CONVECTION.

STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT/POSITIONING OF EACH WAVE IN MAINLY ZONAL
UPPER FLOW WILL INFLUENCE DAILY POSITION OF DECAYING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER...AND EXTENT OF WARM OR COOL
ADVECTION DEPENDING ON POSITION RELATIVE TO FRONT.

HIGHEST THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION AT THE PRESENT TIME APPEARS TO
COME ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY WHEN TWO
OF THE MORE NOTABLE UPSTREAM WAVES ARRIVE...AND THIS REFLECTED
ACCORDINGLY IN GRIDS FOR THESE TIMEFRAMES. OTHERWISE...A LOWER AND
MORE GENERALIZED THREAT FOR DAILY PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINTAINED
INTO SATURDAY UNTIL REGIONAL/MESOSCALE FEATURES BECOME BETTER
RESOLVED.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 725 PM EDT SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP YIELD VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS
DURING THE 00Z-00Z/8PM-8PM TAF TIME PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING PATCHY MOUNTAIN VALLEY AND RIVER FOG
DEVELOPMENT. ANY PATCHY FOG WILL DISSIPATE SOON AFTER SUNRISE
SUNDAY. WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT SATURDAY...

MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONT
WILL SET UP IN THE MID ATLANTIC WHICH COULD BRING A FEW SHRA/TSRA
BY TUESDAY...WITH PERHAPS A BIT MORE COVERAGE LATER WEDNESDAY AT
THIS POINT. THUS THE THREAT OF SUB-VFR REMAINS LOW UNTIL AROUND
MIDWEEK...EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL FOG POTENTIAL AT KLWB/KBCB EACH
MORNING BETWEEN 09-13Z.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/RAB
SHORT TERM...WERT
LONG TERM...WERT
AVIATION...DS/JH/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 020246
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1046 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
REMAIN IN PLACE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
PASSES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN STALL OVER OR NEAR
THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT SATURDAY...

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. MADE SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO MIN
TEMPS AND HOURLY TEMPS AS SOME OF THE MORE URBAN AREAS APPEARED A
LITTLE TO COOL FOR MIN TEMPS GIVEN THE WARM TEMPS OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND SLOW DECLINE RATE AT THE CURRENT HOUR.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...

WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CROSSING THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF DRIER/COOLER AIR OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EAST AND SETTLES ABOUT OVERHEAD THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS BY DAWN SUNDAY.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW ANY RESIDUAL CU TO FADE WITH LOSS OF HEATING AS DRIER
AIR ADVECTS IN WHILE ALSO HELPING WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT
PERHAPS NOT ON THE RIDGES UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH EVEN
COOLER AIR AT 85H THAN SEEN BEFORE LIKELY TO MAKE FOR GREAT RADIATIONAL
COOLING WEST LATE WITH A LIGHT NORTH/NE BREEZE LINGERING OUT EAST IN
SPOTS. LATEST MOS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS WITH MAINLY LOW/MID 60S EAST AND
COOL 50S TO AROUND 60 WEST. HOWEVER A FEW UPPER 40S POSSIBLE DEEPEST
WESTERN VALLEYS PENDING ANY LATE NIGHT RIVER FOG AND RESIDUAL WESTERN
SLOPE STRATO-CU THAT MAY LINGER.

SURFACE HIGH WILL BE OVERHEAD FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER
WARM BUT DRY DAY WITH OVERALL LOW HUMIDITY UNDER MAINLY SUNNY SKIES. A
WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE RIDING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE 5H TROUGH COULD
PRODUCE SOME LOW CLOUDS NW EARLY BEFORE MIXING OUT. ALSO MAY SEE JUST
ENOUGH RETURN SW FLOW AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST LATE TO PROMPT A BIT MORE
CU OVER SW SECTIONS BUT WITHOUT ANY POP MENTION FOR NOW GIVEN DRYNESS.
SHOULD BE ANOTHER LARGE DIURNAL SWING TO TEMPS AS 850 MB VALUES START
TO REBOUND WHILE HIGHS AIDED BY HEATING OF DRY AIR AND WEAK EASTERN
DOWNSLOPE. THIS SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS SO STAYING CLOSE TO
PERSISTENCE WITH MOSTLY 80S MOUNTAINS AND UPPER 80S/LOW 90S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT SATURDAY...

BROAD UPPER TROF EXPECTED TO LINGER FROM THE HUDSON BAY AREA SOUTH
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROFS HELP TO SLOWLY AMPLIFY AND DEEPEN
FEATURE.

MOST OF THE ENERGY AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WAVES WILL
REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY NORTH OF THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA TO
MAINTAIN A MAINLY DRY FORECAST FOR MOST AREAS...BUT INFLUENCE OF
THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL OF THE WAVES PIVOTING EAST THROUGH THE UPPER
AND LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH
ATTENDANT COOL FRONT...STILL WARRANTS SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE TO
MAINTAIN A REFLECTION OF AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A THREAT FOR
WIDELY SCATTERED LATE DAY AND NIGHTTIME SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS
INTO UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE WESTERN BLUE RIDGE NORTH INTO THE
ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS.

DESPITE SOME MODEL DEPICTIONS...WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
RELATIVE DRY LOWER TROPOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE WAVE SHOULD LIMIT ANY
POTENTIAL FOR SPILL-OVER INTO DOWNSLOPE AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE ON MONDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY PRE-FRONTAL WINDS EXPECTED TO ALLOW 850
MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE +22-23C RANGE IN MOST
AREAS...DRIVING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PIEDMONT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...UNLIKE PAST SEVERAL
WEEKS...DEW POINTS STILL EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LACKLUSTER...
MAINLY IN 60S...AS OPPOSED TO MORE OPPRESSIVE 70S EXPERIENCED
EARLIER.

AS SHORT WAVE TROF LIFTS NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE BLACKSBURG
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...DECAYING COOL FRONT LIKELY TO STALL
OVER OR NEAR THE VA/NC STATE LINE AS UPPER FLOW REVERTS TO MORE
OF A ZONAL CONFIGURATION. PROXIMITY OF OLD FRONT...AND SOME LOW
LEVEL POOLING OF MOISTURE IN REGION OF CONFLUENCE MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO SPARK ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN THE
FORECAST AREA...MOST NOTABLY IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING AND LOCALIZED UPSLOPING WILL AID IN VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT...
ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS STILL LIKELY TO REMAIN PRECIPITATION FREE.

SOME WEAK POST-FRONTAL COOL ADVECTION AND CLOUDS MAY HELP TO LOWER
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MOUNTAINS A DEGREE OR TWO FROM THOSE
EXPERIENCED ON MONDAY...BUT CONTINUED GOOD INSOLATION AND NEGLIGIBLE
PUSH OF COOLER AIR INTO SOUTHSIDE VA AND NORTH CENTRAL NC SHOULD
ENSURE ANOTHER DAY OF AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 90S IN THOSE AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT SATURDAY...

EAST-WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE EXPECTED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER OR
NEAR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD AS
ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM SHORT WAVES AND/OR MESOSCALE VORTICITY CENTERS
FROM DECAYING OLD MIDWEST CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
ENERGY/SUPPORT TO MAINTAIN THREAT FOR DAILY SCATTERED CONVECTION.

STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT/POSITIONING OF EACH WAVE IN MAINLY ZONAL
UPPER FLOW WILL INFLUENCE DAILY POSITION OF DECAYING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER...AND EXTENT OF WARM OR COOL
ADVECTION DEPENDING ON POSITION RELATIVE TO FRONT.

HIGHEST THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION AT THE PRESENT TIME APPEARS TO
COME ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY WHEN TWO
OF THE MORE NOTABLE UPSTREAM WAVES ARRIVE...AND THIS REFLECTED
ACCORDINGLY IN GRIDS FOR THESE TIMEFRAMES. OTHERWISE...A LOWER AND
MORE GENERALIZED THREAT FOR DAILY PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINTAINED
INTO SATURDAY UNTIL REGIONAL/MESOSCALE FEATURES BECOME BETTER
RESOLVED.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 725 PM EDT SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP YIELD VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS
DURING THE 00Z-00Z/8PM-8PM TAF TIME PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING PATCHY MOUNTAIN VALLEY AND RIVER FOG
DEVELOPMENT. ANY PATCHY FOG WILL DISSIPATE SOON AFTER SUNRISE
SUNDAY. WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT SATURDAY...

MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONT
WILL SET UP IN THE MID ATLANTIC WHICH COULD BRING A FEW SHRA/TSRA
BY TUESDAY...WITH PERHAPS A BIT MORE COVERAGE LATER WEDNESDAY AT
THIS POINT. THUS THE THREAT OF SUB-VFR REMAINS LOW UNTIL AROUND
MIDWEEK...EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL FOG POTENTIAL AT KLWB/KBCB EACH
MORNING BETWEEN 09-13Z.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/RAB
SHORT TERM...WERT
LONG TERM...WERT
AVIATION...DS/JH/WP



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020214
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1014 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK BOUNDARY CROSSES THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
PLEASANT MID SUMMER EVE ACRS THE FA. VERY WK SFC TROUGH TO SLIDE
ACRS THE FA OVRNGT. KEPT SLGT CHC POPS INVOF PORTIONS OF THE ERN
SHR...OTRW DRY-SKC TO PARTLY CLOUDY OVRNGT. LIMITED FG
PTNTL...THOUGH WILL COVER PSBLTY WNW OF RIC. LO TEMPS FM THE
M-U60S...XCP L70S AT THE CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
H5 RIDGE TO DOMINATE SUN AND MON BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
WEAKNESS ACROSS ERN NC IVOF ALBEMARLE SND THAT JUST MAY BE ENUF
TRIGGER FOR SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS XTREME SERN VA / NE NC
SUN THEN EXPANDING A BIT TO THE SERN HALF OF FA MON. OTW...PT TO
MSTLY SUNNY BOTH DAYS WITH ABOVE NRML TMPS. H85 TMPS SPRT HIGHS
SUN IN THE U80S-L90S WITH L-M90S MON. LOWS M60S-L70S.

MODELS DIFFER A BIT WRT THE AVBL MSTR AND TIMING OF THE NXT FRNT
ACROSS THE RGN TUE. LATEST TRENDS ARE FOR A DAYTIME FROPA WITH NOT
MUCH MSTR AVBL UNTIL AFTR 18Z...BUT BY THEN THE GREATEST SPRT FOR
CONVECTION TO DVLP SHIFTS SOUTH INTO NC. FOR NOW...KEPT SLGHT CHC
POPS IN GRIDS. ANTHR HOT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE L-M90S.

GIVEN THE FCSTD DP TMPS...HEAT INDEX VALUES TOP OUT ARND 100 BOTH
MON / TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH NIGHT/MORNG.
PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN CONUS WITH
TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC REGION. AS FOR
TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE LO/MID 90S WED TO MID/UPR 80S FRI AND
SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND STALLS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPED SATURDAY AFTN MAINLY NORTH AND SOUTH OF
THE TAF SITES. NO PCPN IS FORECAST IN THE 00Z TAF PERIOD ALTHOUGH A
SLGT CHC FOR TSTMS EXISTS SUNDAY AFTN AT ECG. FOG HAS BEEN SPARSE
DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS AND NONE IS FORECAST SUNDAY MORNING. LIGHT
AND MAINLY VARIABLE WINDS GENERALLY TURN TO A NORTH OR NORTHEAST
DIRECTION BY SUNDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...ONLY A SLGT CHC FOR TSTMS IS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTN AND EVENING TSTMS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. A WEAK FRNT/TROF OF LO PRES
APPROACHES FM THE NW THIS AFTN/EVENG. A WEAK SLY SURGE IS EXPECTED
OVER THE BAY AHEAD OF THE FRNT...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY JUST
BLO SCA THRESHOLDS (~15 KT). THE FRNT SLIDES OFFSHORE AND WEAKENS
INTO ERLY SUN...WITH WINDS SUN AOB 10 KT AND SEABREEZES DEVELOPING.
WAVES OVER THE BAY 1-2 FT AND SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS 2-3 FT. SLY FLOW
RETURNS BY MON...WITH 10-15 KT WINDS OVER THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND AND
15-20 KT OVER CSTL WTRS. SEAS OVER NRN CSTL WTRS MAY APPROACH 5 FT
LATE IN THE DAY INTO MON NIGHT. WEAK HI PRES RETURNS TO THE REGION
TUE THRU WED WITH S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4
FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAS



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