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000
FXUS61 KLWX 020228
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1028 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OFFSHORE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS WV. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
BECOME VERY ISOLATED. ONE SHOWER NEAR WARM SPRINGS VA MAY BRUSH
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...AND OTHER SPOTTY AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE APPROACHING THE
SHENANDOAH VALLEY. HRRR HAS DEPICTED THIS PRETTY WELL...AND
INDICATES SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE CWA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. KEPT
MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. ALTHOUGH IT
SHOULD BE ISOLATED...CLOUD TOPS ON THE SHOWER NEAR WARM SPRINGS
ARE AT -36C...INDICATING ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES.

WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TONIGHT WITH MOIST AIRMASS IN
PLACE...BUT IT MAY BE INHIBITED IN SOME SPOTS WITH APPROACHING
CLOUDS FROM THE DISTURBANCE TO OUR WEST.

LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TONIGHT...AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER IN ELEVATED AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AT 12Z TUE.
BUT FRONT WILL MARCH EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...MAKING IT TO THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS BY LATE AFTERNOON. PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
WARM AND MOIST...BUT CONVECTION LIKELY WAITS UNTIL THE FRONT GETS
CLOSER TO THE CWA AND HAVE POPS EXPANDING EASTWARD WITH TIME HIGHEST
IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

THERE IS THE RISK FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE /DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS/ TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY BEFORE DARK DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
INSTABILITY AND INCREASED SHEAR. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FURTHER
DOWNSTREAM ONCE THE SUN SETS. FRONT MOVES THROUGH AT NIGHT. POPS
LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST.

DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH THE RETURN OF SUNSHINE. WHILE
DEWPOINTS ARE LOWER...DOWNSLOPING WILL SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WHICH STILL MAY BE NEAR 90. SAME TYPE OF SCENARIO ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...MOISTURE AND WEAK PVA MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPLY
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. INCREASED MOISTURE
AND THE PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER
ACTIVITY OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
OUTSIDE OF BWI/MTN. FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WITH A MOIST AIRMASS
IN PLACE.

TSRA POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT.

NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
EARLIER GUSTS ON THE WATERS NEAR TANGIER SOUND HAVE DIMINISHED.
WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH 10KT OR LESS TONIGHT.

APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.
FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FOR WEDNESDAY.

SOUTHERLY CHANNELLING/SCA CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE LATE
FRIDAY. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CEM/BPP
NEAR TERM...BPP/KCS
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...CEM/BPP/KCS
MARINE...CEM/BPP/KCS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 020228
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1028 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OFFSHORE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS WV. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
BECOME VERY ISOLATED. ONE SHOWER NEAR WARM SPRINGS VA MAY BRUSH
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...AND OTHER SPOTTY AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE APPROACHING THE
SHENANDOAH VALLEY. HRRR HAS DEPICTED THIS PRETTY WELL...AND
INDICATES SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE CWA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. KEPT
MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. ALTHOUGH IT
SHOULD BE ISOLATED...CLOUD TOPS ON THE SHOWER NEAR WARM SPRINGS
ARE AT -36C...INDICATING ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES.

WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TONIGHT WITH MOIST AIRMASS IN
PLACE...BUT IT MAY BE INHIBITED IN SOME SPOTS WITH APPROACHING
CLOUDS FROM THE DISTURBANCE TO OUR WEST.

LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TONIGHT...AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER IN ELEVATED AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AT 12Z TUE.
BUT FRONT WILL MARCH EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...MAKING IT TO THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS BY LATE AFTERNOON. PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
WARM AND MOIST...BUT CONVECTION LIKELY WAITS UNTIL THE FRONT GETS
CLOSER TO THE CWA AND HAVE POPS EXPANDING EASTWARD WITH TIME HIGHEST
IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

THERE IS THE RISK FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE /DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS/ TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY BEFORE DARK DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
INSTABILITY AND INCREASED SHEAR. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FURTHER
DOWNSTREAM ONCE THE SUN SETS. FRONT MOVES THROUGH AT NIGHT. POPS
LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST.

DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH THE RETURN OF SUNSHINE. WHILE
DEWPOINTS ARE LOWER...DOWNSLOPING WILL SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WHICH STILL MAY BE NEAR 90. SAME TYPE OF SCENARIO ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...MOISTURE AND WEAK PVA MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPLY
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. INCREASED MOISTURE
AND THE PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER
ACTIVITY OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
OUTSIDE OF BWI/MTN. FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WITH A MOIST AIRMASS
IN PLACE.

TSRA POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT.

NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
EARLIER GUSTS ON THE WATERS NEAR TANGIER SOUND HAVE DIMINISHED.
WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH 10KT OR LESS TONIGHT.

APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.
FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FOR WEDNESDAY.

SOUTHERLY CHANNELLING/SCA CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE LATE
FRIDAY. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CEM/BPP
NEAR TERM...BPP/KCS
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...CEM/BPP/KCS
MARINE...CEM/BPP/KCS







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000
FXUS61 KRNK 020137
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
937 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MUCH
OF TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT TRACKS SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BY
TUESDAY EVENING...BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND WASHING
OUT ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETS BACK UP OVER THE EAST BY
FRIDAY WITH YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD US THIS WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 850 PM EDT MONDAY...

OTHER FOR ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA PASSING ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH...CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED THIS EVENING AS SOUNDINGS SHOW
WEAK CAPPING ALOFT WITHIN A DEEP WESTERLY FLOW REGIME. THIS ALONG
WITH LACK OF DEEP INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THINGS MAINLY QUIET
OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE VALLEYS AND PERHAPS OUT
EAST. HOWEVER WITH THE LATEST HRRR TRACKING THE CURRENT ISOLATED
COVERAGE OVER GREENBRIER EAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH
VALLEY...WILL LEAVE IN SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH SINCE
HEADING INTO SOME DECENT LEFTOVER CAPE DESPITE LOSS OF HEATING.
WILL ALSO CONTINUE SOME LOW CHANCES FAR NW LATE FOR ACTIVITY
COMING IN AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM FRONT AROUND DAYBREAK. OTRW FEW
CHANGES OTHER THAN TO INCLUDE A BIT OF FOG AND BUMP UP TEMPS IN
SPOTS GIVEN SUCH A MUGGY OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF A FRONT SHIFTING SE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
PASSES ACROSS TUESDAY MORNING. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE WESTERN CWA
WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSRA DURING THE MORNING BUT
AGAIN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE LOOKS FEEBLE. THERE IS GOOD SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THIS FEATURE BY 18Z TUESDAY BUT ANOTHER WAVE AND THE FRONT
ITSELF WILL EDGE CLOSER TOWARD TUE EVENING...WHICH WILL BRING A
BETTER THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS WITH ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.

TUESDAY WILL BE HOT...WITH ENOUGH SUN TO SEND TEMPS INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 90S EAST...AND LOWER TO MID 80S WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 224 PM EDT MONDAY...

A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...PUSHING
PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST COAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED DEW POINT FRONT AND DRIER AIR
IS LAGGING WAY BEHIND AND DOES NOT ENTER THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL
LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS DEW POINT FRONT MAY MAKE IT AS FAR AS
THE VA/NC BORDER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN BEGINS TO RETREAT TO THE
NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP
MOST OF THE AREA DRY BUT COULD SEE ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS SOUTH OF
THE DEW POINT FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS THIS SURFACE
RIDGE DRIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY...SOUTHEAST FLOW
AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...ESPECIALLY THE NORTH CAROLINA
HIGH COUNTY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH FLOW IS WEAK
ALOFT...WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL OVERRUN THIS RIDGE/INSITU WEDGE TO
PRODUCE A LOW STRATUS DECK AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
EASTERLY FLOW THURSDAY WILL PRODUCE UNIFORM TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 248 PM EDT MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE EXITS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON FRIDAY AND WILL BE
REPLACED BY A LEE TROUGH. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF
STATE TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW MAY BRING A SHORT
WAVE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL HELP SPARK
CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IF THIS SHORT
WAVE DOES NOT MATERIALIZE...DIURNAL CONVECTION IS STILL POSSIBLE
WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE...AFTERNOON HEATING AND A LEE TROUGH. FOR THE
WEEKEND...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY
(GFS) OR SUNDAY (ECM). WITH A STUBBORN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH...FAVORING THE SLOWER ECM RUN. PREFRONTAL OR DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY BUT WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY. NOT QUITE SURE IF THE FRONT WILL
COMPLETE CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES
TO HANG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS
THE AREA. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN COOLER THAN
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 640 PM EDT MONDAY...

OVERALL VFR SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT UNDER DIMINISHING WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY MAKE A RUN AT
KLWB OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BUT LIKELY TO DISSIPATE
CROSSING THE RIDGES SO LEAVING OUT MENTION WITH JUST A FEW MORE
CLOUDS AROUND. WELL MIXED LOW LEVELS FROM THIS AFTERNOON LIKELY TO
INHIBIT MUCH FOG DEVELOPMENT EXCEPT FOR SOME BRIEF MVFR AT
KLYH/KDAN THAT SHOULD STAY EAST OF ANY UPSTREAM MID DECK THAT MAY
ARRIVE OVER THE WEST TOWARD DAWN. CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME BRIEF
VALLEY FOG AT KLWB/KBCB JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE ANY ADDED
CLOUDS PUSH EAST. THUS WENT WITH A BRIEF MVFR TEMPO GROUP AT
KLWB/KBCB FOR FOG ALTHOUGH FORECAST FOG STABILITY VALUES SHOW ONLY
SPOTTY COVERAGE AT BEST.

UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY WITH MOSTLY ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS/STORMS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER MAY SEE A
MORE ORGANIZED BAND DROP IN FROM THE NW WITH THE LEADING PRE-
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...SO INCLUDING A VCTS MENTION ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WEST VA SITES AROUND MID AFTERNOON AND LATE AT KBCB.
OTRW EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR AFTER EARLY MID DECK ERODES AND
SCATTERED-BROKEN CU FIELDS BETWEEN 4-6K FT TAKE SHAPE WITH
HEATING.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

FRONT SETTLES CLOSER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHEN BETTER
COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE
TIMING AND SOUTHWARD POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY AT THIS
POINT PENDING PRE-FRONTAL COVERAGE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW APPEARS
MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF EARLY MORNING FOG WEDNESDAY...THEN PERIODS
OF MVFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ESPCLY SOUTHERN SECTIONS...AND MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR MORE
ISOLATED NATURE COVERAGE. FRONT WASHES OUT TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA FRIDAY WITH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL NATURE SHOWERS AND
STORMS...THEN PERHAPS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD SATURDAY WITH
PERIODIC MVFR IN MORE ORGANIZED COVERAGE AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE. OTRW WILL SEE A DAILY
TREND OF EARLY MVFR/IFR IN FOG...FOLLOWED BY BRIEF VFR...THEN
INCREASING AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION WHEN MVFR TO LOCAL IFR
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...WILL
BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A PART HAS BEEN BACK-ORDERED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...JH/RAB/WP
EQUIPMENT...RAB



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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020113
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
913 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH TUESDAY.
A WEAK FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND SETTLES NEAR
THE VIRGINIA NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
DROPPED POPS AS CONVECTION AHEAD OF SFC TROF NOW OFFSHORE. WEAK
SFC RIDGING KEEPS FA DRY OVERNIGHT. M CLR TO PT CLDY. LOWS 70-75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...
MINI HEAT WAVE CULMINATES TOMORROW. 850MB TEMPERATURES AVERAGE
AROUND 20C, WHICH COMBINED WITH DEEP MIXING AND A SW WIND OF
10-15MPH SHOULD BOOST HIGHS INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S INLAND WITH
LOW 90S ALONG THE COASTLINES. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS SHOULD MIX BACK
INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S...WHICH SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SERVE TO KEEP
HEAT INDICES AOB 100. FORECAST HIGHS AVERAGE AROUND +1.5-2.0 ST
DEV ABOVE SEASONAL MEANS...AND APPROACH BUT FALL JUST SHORT OF
RECORDS...WHICH ARE LISTED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR
REFERENCE. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE SHOW MUCH OF THE AREA TO BE
WELL-CAPPED ABOVE CU BASES, AND THUS HAVE KEPT A SILENT POP
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ASIDE FROM NE NC ALONG SEA BREEZE. THE
APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT COULD
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY
LIMITED.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY:
THE FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE AREA, WITH THE SFC TROUGH BECOMING
STALLED SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BEFORE GETTING SHUNTED
BACK NORTH ON THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. GIVEN CONTINUED MOIST AIRMASS, WILL GO WITH A
20-30% POP EACH DAY CENTERED MAINLY ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS OVER
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA...BUT DO EXPECT SKY COVER TO
AVERAGE OUT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL REMAIN
ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL...BUT WILL DROPPING BACK TO AROUND
90 INLAND, SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MORNINGS SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR THU NGT/FRI...SFC HI PRES CENTERS
OFFSHORE WITH A BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. DID
INCLUDE A SLGT CHANCE-CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM (ESPECIALLY OVR WRN
AREAS) CLOSEST TO THE GREATEST MOISTURE AXIS AND SFC LEE TROF...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED. TEMPS FRI WILL RISE INTO THE UPR 80S TO
LWR 90S UNDER A MOSTLY/PARTLY SKY AND LGT SLY WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WEST
AS AN UPR-LEVEL TROF DIGS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. CHANCES FOR RAIN
WILL INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT DROPS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC. TOUGH TO EXACTLY TIME THE PRECIP THIS FAR OUT IN
TIME...BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A 30-40% CHANCE FOR SHRAS/TSTMS BOTH
SAT AND SUN. HI TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SAT WILL BE NEAR
90...DROPPING INTO THE LO TO MID 80S ON SUN WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONT TO PREVAIL THRU THE OVERNIGHT. MOIST
ATMOSPHERE MAY LEAD TO MVFR VIS TUES MORNING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE SSW-SW AOB 10 KT. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN
ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK BUT AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE
REGION...EXPECT ISOLATED AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON TUES...CROSSING THE
REGION LATE TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURS
AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK. SFC HI PRES REMAINS
ANCHORED OVR THE WRN ATLANTIC THIS EVENING WITH A LEE TROF OVR THE MID
ATLANTIC. RESULTING SLY FLOW WILL AVG 10-15 KT...WITH 1-2 FT WAVES
OVR THE BAY AND 2-4 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS INTO
TUE WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE
AREA AND WEAKENS TUE NGT/WED...LEADING TO LGT/VRB WINDS BY LATE
WED/WED NGT AND SEAS AOB 3 FT. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HEADLINES ATTM
DUE TO A LACK OF CAA/SURGE POST FRONTAL. HI PRES RETURNS WED NGT
THRU FRI AS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY 9/2:

RIC: 100/1980
ORF:  97/1993
SBY:  97/1980
ECG:  96/1943

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...DAP/JEF
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020113
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
913 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH TUESDAY.
A WEAK FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND SETTLES NEAR
THE VIRGINIA NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
DROPPED POPS AS CONVECTION AHEAD OF SFC TROF NOW OFFSHORE. WEAK
SFC RIDGING KEEPS FA DRY OVERNIGHT. M CLR TO PT CLDY. LOWS 70-75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...
MINI HEAT WAVE CULMINATES TOMORROW. 850MB TEMPERATURES AVERAGE
AROUND 20C, WHICH COMBINED WITH DEEP MIXING AND A SW WIND OF
10-15MPH SHOULD BOOST HIGHS INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S INLAND WITH
LOW 90S ALONG THE COASTLINES. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS SHOULD MIX BACK
INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S...WHICH SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SERVE TO KEEP
HEAT INDICES AOB 100. FORECAST HIGHS AVERAGE AROUND +1.5-2.0 ST
DEV ABOVE SEASONAL MEANS...AND APPROACH BUT FALL JUST SHORT OF
RECORDS...WHICH ARE LISTED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR
REFERENCE. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE SHOW MUCH OF THE AREA TO BE
WELL-CAPPED ABOVE CU BASES, AND THUS HAVE KEPT A SILENT POP
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ASIDE FROM NE NC ALONG SEA BREEZE. THE
APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT COULD
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY
LIMITED.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY:
THE FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE AREA, WITH THE SFC TROUGH BECOMING
STALLED SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BEFORE GETTING SHUNTED
BACK NORTH ON THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. GIVEN CONTINUED MOIST AIRMASS, WILL GO WITH A
20-30% POP EACH DAY CENTERED MAINLY ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS OVER
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA...BUT DO EXPECT SKY COVER TO
AVERAGE OUT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL REMAIN
ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL...BUT WILL DROPPING BACK TO AROUND
90 INLAND, SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MORNINGS SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR THU NGT/FRI...SFC HI PRES CENTERS
OFFSHORE WITH A BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. DID
INCLUDE A SLGT CHANCE-CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM (ESPECIALLY OVR WRN
AREAS) CLOSEST TO THE GREATEST MOISTURE AXIS AND SFC LEE TROF...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED. TEMPS FRI WILL RISE INTO THE UPR 80S TO
LWR 90S UNDER A MOSTLY/PARTLY SKY AND LGT SLY WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WEST
AS AN UPR-LEVEL TROF DIGS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. CHANCES FOR RAIN
WILL INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT DROPS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC. TOUGH TO EXACTLY TIME THE PRECIP THIS FAR OUT IN
TIME...BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A 30-40% CHANCE FOR SHRAS/TSTMS BOTH
SAT AND SUN. HI TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SAT WILL BE NEAR
90...DROPPING INTO THE LO TO MID 80S ON SUN WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONT TO PREVAIL THRU THE OVERNIGHT. MOIST
ATMOSPHERE MAY LEAD TO MVFR VIS TUES MORNING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE SSW-SW AOB 10 KT. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN
ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK BUT AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE
REGION...EXPECT ISOLATED AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON TUES...CROSSING THE
REGION LATE TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURS
AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK. SFC HI PRES REMAINS
ANCHORED OVR THE WRN ATLANTIC THIS EVENING WITH A LEE TROF OVR THE MID
ATLANTIC. RESULTING SLY FLOW WILL AVG 10-15 KT...WITH 1-2 FT WAVES
OVR THE BAY AND 2-4 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS INTO
TUE WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE
AREA AND WEAKENS TUE NGT/WED...LEADING TO LGT/VRB WINDS BY LATE
WED/WED NGT AND SEAS AOB 3 FT. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HEADLINES ATTM
DUE TO A LACK OF CAA/SURGE POST FRONTAL. HI PRES RETURNS WED NGT
THRU FRI AS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY 9/2:

RIC: 100/1980
ORF:  97/1993
SBY:  97/1980
ECG:  96/1943

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...DAP/JEF
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020113
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
913 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH TUESDAY.
A WEAK FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND SETTLES NEAR
THE VIRGINIA NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
DROPPED POPS AS CONVECTION AHEAD OF SFC TROF NOW OFFSHORE. WEAK
SFC RIDGING KEEPS FA DRY OVERNIGHT. M CLR TO PT CLDY. LOWS 70-75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...
MINI HEAT WAVE CULMINATES TOMORROW. 850MB TEMPERATURES AVERAGE
AROUND 20C, WHICH COMBINED WITH DEEP MIXING AND A SW WIND OF
10-15MPH SHOULD BOOST HIGHS INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S INLAND WITH
LOW 90S ALONG THE COASTLINES. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS SHOULD MIX BACK
INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S...WHICH SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SERVE TO KEEP
HEAT INDICES AOB 100. FORECAST HIGHS AVERAGE AROUND +1.5-2.0 ST
DEV ABOVE SEASONAL MEANS...AND APPROACH BUT FALL JUST SHORT OF
RECORDS...WHICH ARE LISTED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR
REFERENCE. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE SHOW MUCH OF THE AREA TO BE
WELL-CAPPED ABOVE CU BASES, AND THUS HAVE KEPT A SILENT POP
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ASIDE FROM NE NC ALONG SEA BREEZE. THE
APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT COULD
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY
LIMITED.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY:
THE FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE AREA, WITH THE SFC TROUGH BECOMING
STALLED SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BEFORE GETTING SHUNTED
BACK NORTH ON THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. GIVEN CONTINUED MOIST AIRMASS, WILL GO WITH A
20-30% POP EACH DAY CENTERED MAINLY ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS OVER
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA...BUT DO EXPECT SKY COVER TO
AVERAGE OUT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL REMAIN
ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL...BUT WILL DROPPING BACK TO AROUND
90 INLAND, SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MORNINGS SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR THU NGT/FRI...SFC HI PRES CENTERS
OFFSHORE WITH A BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. DID
INCLUDE A SLGT CHANCE-CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM (ESPECIALLY OVR WRN
AREAS) CLOSEST TO THE GREATEST MOISTURE AXIS AND SFC LEE TROF...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED. TEMPS FRI WILL RISE INTO THE UPR 80S TO
LWR 90S UNDER A MOSTLY/PARTLY SKY AND LGT SLY WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WEST
AS AN UPR-LEVEL TROF DIGS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. CHANCES FOR RAIN
WILL INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT DROPS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC. TOUGH TO EXACTLY TIME THE PRECIP THIS FAR OUT IN
TIME...BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A 30-40% CHANCE FOR SHRAS/TSTMS BOTH
SAT AND SUN. HI TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SAT WILL BE NEAR
90...DROPPING INTO THE LO TO MID 80S ON SUN WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONT TO PREVAIL THRU THE OVERNIGHT. MOIST
ATMOSPHERE MAY LEAD TO MVFR VIS TUES MORNING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE SSW-SW AOB 10 KT. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN
ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK BUT AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE
REGION...EXPECT ISOLATED AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON TUES...CROSSING THE
REGION LATE TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURS
AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK. SFC HI PRES REMAINS
ANCHORED OVR THE WRN ATLANTIC THIS EVENING WITH A LEE TROF OVR THE MID
ATLANTIC. RESULTING SLY FLOW WILL AVG 10-15 KT...WITH 1-2 FT WAVES
OVR THE BAY AND 2-4 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS INTO
TUE WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE
AREA AND WEAKENS TUE NGT/WED...LEADING TO LGT/VRB WINDS BY LATE
WED/WED NGT AND SEAS AOB 3 FT. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HEADLINES ATTM
DUE TO A LACK OF CAA/SURGE POST FRONTAL. HI PRES RETURNS WED NGT
THRU FRI AS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY 9/2:

RIC: 100/1980
ORF:  97/1993
SBY:  97/1980
ECG:  96/1943

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...DAP/JEF
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020113
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
913 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH TUESDAY.
A WEAK FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND SETTLES NEAR
THE VIRGINIA NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
DROPPED POPS AS CONVECTION AHEAD OF SFC TROF NOW OFFSHORE. WEAK
SFC RIDGING KEEPS FA DRY OVERNIGHT. M CLR TO PT CLDY. LOWS 70-75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...
MINI HEAT WAVE CULMINATES TOMORROW. 850MB TEMPERATURES AVERAGE
AROUND 20C, WHICH COMBINED WITH DEEP MIXING AND A SW WIND OF
10-15MPH SHOULD BOOST HIGHS INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S INLAND WITH
LOW 90S ALONG THE COASTLINES. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS SHOULD MIX BACK
INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S...WHICH SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SERVE TO KEEP
HEAT INDICES AOB 100. FORECAST HIGHS AVERAGE AROUND +1.5-2.0 ST
DEV ABOVE SEASONAL MEANS...AND APPROACH BUT FALL JUST SHORT OF
RECORDS...WHICH ARE LISTED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR
REFERENCE. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE SHOW MUCH OF THE AREA TO BE
WELL-CAPPED ABOVE CU BASES, AND THUS HAVE KEPT A SILENT POP
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ASIDE FROM NE NC ALONG SEA BREEZE. THE
APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT COULD
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY
LIMITED.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY:
THE FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE AREA, WITH THE SFC TROUGH BECOMING
STALLED SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BEFORE GETTING SHUNTED
BACK NORTH ON THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. GIVEN CONTINUED MOIST AIRMASS, WILL GO WITH A
20-30% POP EACH DAY CENTERED MAINLY ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS OVER
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA...BUT DO EXPECT SKY COVER TO
AVERAGE OUT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL REMAIN
ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL...BUT WILL DROPPING BACK TO AROUND
90 INLAND, SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MORNINGS SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR THU NGT/FRI...SFC HI PRES CENTERS
OFFSHORE WITH A BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. DID
INCLUDE A SLGT CHANCE-CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM (ESPECIALLY OVR WRN
AREAS) CLOSEST TO THE GREATEST MOISTURE AXIS AND SFC LEE TROF...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED. TEMPS FRI WILL RISE INTO THE UPR 80S TO
LWR 90S UNDER A MOSTLY/PARTLY SKY AND LGT SLY WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WEST
AS AN UPR-LEVEL TROF DIGS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. CHANCES FOR RAIN
WILL INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT DROPS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC. TOUGH TO EXACTLY TIME THE PRECIP THIS FAR OUT IN
TIME...BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A 30-40% CHANCE FOR SHRAS/TSTMS BOTH
SAT AND SUN. HI TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SAT WILL BE NEAR
90...DROPPING INTO THE LO TO MID 80S ON SUN WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONT TO PREVAIL THRU THE OVERNIGHT. MOIST
ATMOSPHERE MAY LEAD TO MVFR VIS TUES MORNING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE SSW-SW AOB 10 KT. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN
ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK BUT AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE
REGION...EXPECT ISOLATED AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON TUES...CROSSING THE
REGION LATE TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURS
AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK. SFC HI PRES REMAINS
ANCHORED OVR THE WRN ATLANTIC THIS EVENING WITH A LEE TROF OVR THE MID
ATLANTIC. RESULTING SLY FLOW WILL AVG 10-15 KT...WITH 1-2 FT WAVES
OVR THE BAY AND 2-4 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS INTO
TUE WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE
AREA AND WEAKENS TUE NGT/WED...LEADING TO LGT/VRB WINDS BY LATE
WED/WED NGT AND SEAS AOB 3 FT. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HEADLINES ATTM
DUE TO A LACK OF CAA/SURGE POST FRONTAL. HI PRES RETURNS WED NGT
THRU FRI AS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY 9/2:

RIC: 100/1980
ORF:  97/1993
SBY:  97/1980
ECG:  96/1943

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...DAP/JEF
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KLWX 012357
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
757 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OFFSHORE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS WV...AND SOME ASSOCIATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY APPROACHING EASTERN WV. THIS ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED
SOMEWHAT IN THE EARLY EVENING. LOSS OF SUNLIGHT WILL FOSTER A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN INSTABILITY THIS EVENING...BUT WITH MOIST AIR
IN PLACE...DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE IT WILL TAKE SEVERAL HOURS FOR SURFACE BASED
CAPE TO DROP BELOW 1000 J/KG...ALONG WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY
ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION THAT WILL SET UP. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR EASTERN WV
AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN MD THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN VA. WILL CONTINUE WITH
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVER THE HIGHLANDS OVERNIGHT AS
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE AND A VORT MAX APPROACH FROM THE WEST.

WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TONIGHT WITH MOIST AIRMASS IN
PLACE...BUT IT MAY BE INHIBITED IN SOME SPOTS WITH APPROACHING
CLOUDS FROM THE DISTURBANCE TO OUR WEST.

LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TONIGHT...AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER IN ELEVATED AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AT 12Z TUE.
BUT FRONT WILL MARCH EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...MAKING IT TO THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS BY LATE AFTERNOON. PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
WARM AND MOIST...BUT CONVECTION LIKELY WAITS UNTIL THE FRONT GETS
CLOSER TO THE CWA AND HAVE POPS EXPANDING EASTWARD WITH TIME HIGHEST
IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

THERE IS THE RISK FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE /DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS/ TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY BEFORE DARK DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
INSTABILITY AND INCREASED SHEAR. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FURTHER
DOWNSTREAM ONCE THE SUN SETS. FRONT MOVES THROUGH AT NIGHT. POPS
LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST.

DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH THE RETURN OF SUNSHINE. WHILE
DEWPOINTS ARE LOWER...DOWNSLOPING WILL SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WHICH STILL MAY BE NEAR 90. SAME TYPE OF SCENARIO ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...MOISTURE AND WEAK PVA MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPLY
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. INCREASED MOISTURE
AND THE PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER
ACTIVITY OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE AT KCHO. FOG MAY DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT WITH A MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE.

TSRA POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT.

NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SOME WIND GUSTS TO 15-17KT NOTED NEAR TANGIER SOUND THIS EVENING.
THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THIS AREA...BUT IT
IS EXPECTED TO RELAX OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
WINDS IN THE UPPER TEENS AROUND 1-2KFT. NOT EXPECTING THIS TO MIX
DOWN OVER THE OPEN COOLER WATERS...AND NEARSHORE GUSTS SHOULD
DECREASE AS INSTABILITY OVER LAND DECREASES. ISOLATED SHOWER OR
TSTM POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL...WITH GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE. FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FOR WEDNESDAY.

SOUTHERLY CHANNELLING/SCA CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE LATE
FRIDAY. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CEM/BPP
NEAR TERM...BPP/KCS
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...CEM/KCS/BPP
MARINE...CEM/BPP/KCS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 012357
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
757 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OFFSHORE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS WV...AND SOME ASSOCIATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY APPROACHING EASTERN WV. THIS ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED
SOMEWHAT IN THE EARLY EVENING. LOSS OF SUNLIGHT WILL FOSTER A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN INSTABILITY THIS EVENING...BUT WITH MOIST AIR
IN PLACE...DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE IT WILL TAKE SEVERAL HOURS FOR SURFACE BASED
CAPE TO DROP BELOW 1000 J/KG...ALONG WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY
ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION THAT WILL SET UP. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR EASTERN WV
AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN MD THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN VA. WILL CONTINUE WITH
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVER THE HIGHLANDS OVERNIGHT AS
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE AND A VORT MAX APPROACH FROM THE WEST.

WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TONIGHT WITH MOIST AIRMASS IN
PLACE...BUT IT MAY BE INHIBITED IN SOME SPOTS WITH APPROACHING
CLOUDS FROM THE DISTURBANCE TO OUR WEST.

LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TONIGHT...AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER IN ELEVATED AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AT 12Z TUE.
BUT FRONT WILL MARCH EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...MAKING IT TO THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS BY LATE AFTERNOON. PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
WARM AND MOIST...BUT CONVECTION LIKELY WAITS UNTIL THE FRONT GETS
CLOSER TO THE CWA AND HAVE POPS EXPANDING EASTWARD WITH TIME HIGHEST
IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

THERE IS THE RISK FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE /DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS/ TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY BEFORE DARK DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
INSTABILITY AND INCREASED SHEAR. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FURTHER
DOWNSTREAM ONCE THE SUN SETS. FRONT MOVES THROUGH AT NIGHT. POPS
LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST.

DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH THE RETURN OF SUNSHINE. WHILE
DEWPOINTS ARE LOWER...DOWNSLOPING WILL SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WHICH STILL MAY BE NEAR 90. SAME TYPE OF SCENARIO ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...MOISTURE AND WEAK PVA MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPLY
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. INCREASED MOISTURE
AND THE PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER
ACTIVITY OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE AT KCHO. FOG MAY DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT WITH A MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE.

TSRA POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT.

NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SOME WIND GUSTS TO 15-17KT NOTED NEAR TANGIER SOUND THIS EVENING.
THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THIS AREA...BUT IT
IS EXPECTED TO RELAX OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
WINDS IN THE UPPER TEENS AROUND 1-2KFT. NOT EXPECTING THIS TO MIX
DOWN OVER THE OPEN COOLER WATERS...AND NEARSHORE GUSTS SHOULD
DECREASE AS INSTABILITY OVER LAND DECREASES. ISOLATED SHOWER OR
TSTM POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL...WITH GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE. FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FOR WEDNESDAY.

SOUTHERLY CHANNELLING/SCA CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE LATE
FRIDAY. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CEM/BPP
NEAR TERM...BPP/KCS
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...CEM/KCS/BPP
MARINE...CEM/BPP/KCS








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 012333
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
733 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH TUESDAY.
A WEAK FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND SETTLES NEAR
THE VIRGINIA NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION ALONG THE SFC TROF NOW WINDING DOWN AND SHOULD CONTINUE
TO DSPT NEXT FEW HRS WITH LOSS OF HTNG. KEPT 20-30 POP ACROSS THE
CHES BAY AND ERN SHORE AREAS THRU THE EVENING. WEAK SFC RIDGING
EXPECTED TO KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY TONIGHT. MSTLY CLR TO PT
CLDY AND MUGGY. LOWS 70-75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...
MINI HEAT WAVE CULMINATES TOMORROW. 850MB TEMPERATURES AVERAGE
AROUND 20C, WHICH COMBINED WITH DEEP MIXING AND A SW WIND OF
10-15MPH SHOULD BOOST HIGHS INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S INLAND WITH
LOW 90S ALONG THE COASTLINES. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS SHOULD MIX BACK
INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S...WHICH SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SERVE TO KEEP
HEAT INDICES AOB 100. FORECAST HIGHS AVERAGE AROUND +1.5-2.0 ST
DEV ABOVE SEASONAL MEANS...AND APPROACH BUT FALL JUST SHORT OF
RECORDS...WHICH ARE LISTED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR
REFERENCE. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE SHOW MUCH OF THE AREA TO BE
WELL-CAPPED ABOVE CU BASES, AND THUS HAVE KEPT A SILENT POP
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ASIDE FROM NE NC ALONG SEA BREEZE. THE
APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT COULD
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY
LIMITED.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY:
THE FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE AREA, WITH THE SFC TROUGH BECOMING
STALLED SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BEFORE GETTING SHUNTED
BACK NORTH ON THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. GIVEN CONTINUED MOIST AIRMASS, WILL GO WITH A
20-30% POP EACH DAY CENTERED MAINLY ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS OVER
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA...BUT DO EXPECT SKY COVER TO
AVERAGE OUT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL REMAIN
ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL...BUT WILL DROPPING BACK TO AROUND
90 INLAND, SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MORNINGS SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR THU NGT/FRI...SFC HI PRES CENTERS
OFFSHORE WITH A BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. DID
INCLUDE A SLGT CHANCE-CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM (ESPECIALLY OVR WRN
AREAS) CLOSEST TO THE GREATEST MOISTURE AXIS AND SFC LEE TROF...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED. TEMPS FRI WILL RISE INTO THE UPR 80S TO
LWR 90S UNDER A MOSTLY/PARTLY SKY AND LGT SLY WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WEST
AS AN UPR-LEVEL TROF DIGS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. CHANCES FOR RAIN
WILL INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT DROPS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC. TOUGH TO EXACTLY TIME THE PRECIP THIS FAR OUT IN
TIME...BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A 30-40% CHANCE FOR SHRAS/TSTMS BOTH
SAT AND SUN. HI TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SAT WILL BE NEAR
90...DROPPING INTO THE LO TO MID 80S ON SUN WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONT TO PREVAIL THRU THE OVERNIGHT. MOIST
ATMOSPHERE MAY LEAD TO MVFR VIS TUES MORNING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE SSW-SW AOB 10 KT. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN
ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK BUT AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE
REGION...EXPECT ISOLATED AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON TUES...CROSSING THE
REGION LATE TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURS
AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK. SFC HI PRES REMAINS
ANCHORED OVR THE WRN ATLANTIC THIS EVENING WITH A LEE TROF OVR THE MID
ATLANTIC. RESULTING SLY FLOW WILL AVG 10-15 KT...WITH 1-2 FT WAVES
OVR THE BAY AND 2-4 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS INTO
TUE WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE
AREA AND WEAKENS TUE NGT/WED...LEADING TO LGT/VRB WINDS BY LATE
WED/WED NGT AND SEAS AOB 3 FT. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HEADLINES ATTM
DUE TO A LACK OF CAA/SURGE POST FRONTAL. HI PRES RETURNS WED NGT
THRU FRI AS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY 9/2:

RIC: 100/1980
ORF:  97/1993
SBY:  97/1980
ECG:  96/1943

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...DAP/JEF
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 012333
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
733 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH TUESDAY.
A WEAK FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND SETTLES NEAR
THE VIRGINIA NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION ALONG THE SFC TROF NOW WINDING DOWN AND SHOULD CONTINUE
TO DSPT NEXT FEW HRS WITH LOSS OF HTNG. KEPT 20-30 POP ACROSS THE
CHES BAY AND ERN SHORE AREAS THRU THE EVENING. WEAK SFC RIDGING
EXPECTED TO KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY TONIGHT. MSTLY CLR TO PT
CLDY AND MUGGY. LOWS 70-75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...
MINI HEAT WAVE CULMINATES TOMORROW. 850MB TEMPERATURES AVERAGE
AROUND 20C, WHICH COMBINED WITH DEEP MIXING AND A SW WIND OF
10-15MPH SHOULD BOOST HIGHS INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S INLAND WITH
LOW 90S ALONG THE COASTLINES. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS SHOULD MIX BACK
INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S...WHICH SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SERVE TO KEEP
HEAT INDICES AOB 100. FORECAST HIGHS AVERAGE AROUND +1.5-2.0 ST
DEV ABOVE SEASONAL MEANS...AND APPROACH BUT FALL JUST SHORT OF
RECORDS...WHICH ARE LISTED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR
REFERENCE. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE SHOW MUCH OF THE AREA TO BE
WELL-CAPPED ABOVE CU BASES, AND THUS HAVE KEPT A SILENT POP
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ASIDE FROM NE NC ALONG SEA BREEZE. THE
APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT COULD
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY
LIMITED.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY:
THE FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE AREA, WITH THE SFC TROUGH BECOMING
STALLED SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BEFORE GETTING SHUNTED
BACK NORTH ON THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. GIVEN CONTINUED MOIST AIRMASS, WILL GO WITH A
20-30% POP EACH DAY CENTERED MAINLY ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS OVER
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA...BUT DO EXPECT SKY COVER TO
AVERAGE OUT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL REMAIN
ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL...BUT WILL DROPPING BACK TO AROUND
90 INLAND, SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MORNINGS SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR THU NGT/FRI...SFC HI PRES CENTERS
OFFSHORE WITH A BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. DID
INCLUDE A SLGT CHANCE-CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM (ESPECIALLY OVR WRN
AREAS) CLOSEST TO THE GREATEST MOISTURE AXIS AND SFC LEE TROF...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED. TEMPS FRI WILL RISE INTO THE UPR 80S TO
LWR 90S UNDER A MOSTLY/PARTLY SKY AND LGT SLY WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WEST
AS AN UPR-LEVEL TROF DIGS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. CHANCES FOR RAIN
WILL INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT DROPS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC. TOUGH TO EXACTLY TIME THE PRECIP THIS FAR OUT IN
TIME...BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A 30-40% CHANCE FOR SHRAS/TSTMS BOTH
SAT AND SUN. HI TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SAT WILL BE NEAR
90...DROPPING INTO THE LO TO MID 80S ON SUN WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONT TO PREVAIL THRU THE OVERNIGHT. MOIST
ATMOSPHERE MAY LEAD TO MVFR VIS TUES MORNING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE SSW-SW AOB 10 KT. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN
ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK BUT AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE
REGION...EXPECT ISOLATED AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON TUES...CROSSING THE
REGION LATE TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURS
AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK. SFC HI PRES REMAINS
ANCHORED OVR THE WRN ATLANTIC THIS EVENING WITH A LEE TROF OVR THE MID
ATLANTIC. RESULTING SLY FLOW WILL AVG 10-15 KT...WITH 1-2 FT WAVES
OVR THE BAY AND 2-4 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS INTO
TUE WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE
AREA AND WEAKENS TUE NGT/WED...LEADING TO LGT/VRB WINDS BY LATE
WED/WED NGT AND SEAS AOB 3 FT. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HEADLINES ATTM
DUE TO A LACK OF CAA/SURGE POST FRONTAL. HI PRES RETURNS WED NGT
THRU FRI AS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY 9/2:

RIC: 100/1980
ORF:  97/1993
SBY:  97/1980
ECG:  96/1943

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...DAP/JEF
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KRNK 012310
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
710 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MUCH
OF TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT TRACKS SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BY
TUESDAY EVENING...BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND WASHING
OUT ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETS BACK UP OVER THE EAST BY
FRIDAY WITH YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD US THIS WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT MONDAY...

ISOLATED SHOWERS STARTING TO FIRE UP OVER THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE SOUTH
INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. NOT MUCH SUPPORT FOR ANYTHING
HIGHER THAN WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO
RELY ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTION AND HEATING WHICH THERE IS
PLENTY. WORKING AGAINST IT...IS THE LOW LVL WEST WIND...WHICH IS
PREVENTING VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT.

FOR THIS EVENING WILL STILL SEE A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO
THE MTNS WHICH COULD KEEP THE ISOLATED THREAT OF SHOWERS AROUND INTO
EARLY OVERNIGHT. SKIES SHOULD BE CLEARER AS OPPOSED TO LAST
NIGHT...BUT THE AIRMASS REMAINS MUGGY SO LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 60S MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 70S EAST.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF A FRONT SHIFTING SE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
PASSES ACROSS TUESDAY MORNING. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE WESTERN CWA
WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSRA DURING THE MORNING BUT
AGAIN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE LOOKS FEEBLE. THERE IS GOOD SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THIS FEATURE BY 18Z TUESDAY BUT ANOTHER WAVE AND THE FRONT
ITSELF WILL EDGE CLOSER TOWARD TUE EVENING...WHICH WILL BRING A
BETTER THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS WITH ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.

TUESDAY WILL BE HOT...WITH ENOUGH SUN TO SEND TEMPS INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 90S EAST...AND LOWER TO MID 80S WEST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 224 PM EDT MONDAY...

A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...PUSHING
PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST COAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED DEW POINT FRONT AND DRIER AIR
IS LAGGING WAY BEHIND AND DOES NOT ENTER THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL
LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS DEW POINT FRONT MAY MAKE IT AS FAR AS
THE VA/NC BORDER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN BEGINS TO RETREAT TO THE
NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP
MOST OF THE AREA DRY BUT COULD SEE ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS SOUTH OF
THE DEW POINT FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS THIS SURFACE
RIDGE DRIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY...SOUTHEAST FLOW
AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...ESPECIALLY THE NORTH CAROLINA
HIGH COUNTY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH FLOW IS WEAK
ALOFT...WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL OVERRUN THIS RIDGE/INSITU WEDGE TO
PRODUCE A LOW STRATUS DECK AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
EASTERLY FLOW THURSDAY WILL PRODUCE UNIFORM TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 248 PM EDT MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE EXITS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON FRIDAY AND WILL BE
REPLACED BY A LEE TROUGH. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF
STATE TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW MAY BRING A SHORT
WAVE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL HELP SPARK
CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IF THIS SHORT
WAVE DOES NOT MATERIALIZE...DIURNAL CONVECTION IS STILL POSSIBLE
WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE...AFTERNOON HEATING AND A LEE TROUGH. FOR THE
WEEKEND...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY
(GFS) OR SUNDAY (ECM). WITH A STUBBORN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH...FAVORING THE SLOWER ECM RUN. PREFRONTAL OR DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY BUT WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY. NOT QUITE SURE IF THE FRONT WILL
COMPLETE CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES
TO HANG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS
THE AREA. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN COOLER THAN
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 640 PM EDT MONDAY...

OVERALL VFR SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT UNDER DIMINISHING WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY MAKE A RUN AT
KLWB OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BUT LIKELY TO DISSIPATE
CROSSING THE RIDGES SO LEAVING OUT MENTION WITH JUST A FEW MORE
CLOUDS AROUND. WELL MIXED LOW LEVELS FROM THIS AFTERNOON LIKELY TO
INHIBIT MUCH FOG DEVELOPMENT EXCEPT FOR SOME BRIEF MVFR AT
KLYH/KDAN THAT SHOULD STAY EAST OF ANY UPSTREAM MID DECK THAT MAY
ARRIVE OVER THE WEST TOWARD DAWN. CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME BRIEF
VALLEY FOG AT KLWB/KBCB JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE ANY ADDED
CLOUDS PUSH EAST. THUS WENT WITH A BRIEF MVFR TEMPO GROUP AT
KLWB/KBCB FOR FOG ALTHOUGH FORECAST FOG STABILITY VALUES SHOW ONLY
SPOTTY COVERAGE AT BEST.

UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY WITH MOSTLY ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS/STORMS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER MAY SEE A
MORE ORGANIZED BAND DROP IN FROM THE NW WITH THE LEADING PRE-
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...SO INCLUDING A VCTS MENTION ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WEST VA SITES AROUND MID AFTERNOON AND LATE AT KBCB.
OTRW EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR AFTER EARLY MID DECK ERODES AND
SCATTERED-BROKEN CU FIELDS BETWEEN 4-6K FT TAKE SHAPE WITH
HEATING.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

FRONT SETTLES CLOSER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHEN BETTER
COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE
TIMING AND SOUTHWARD POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY AT THIS
POINT PENDING PRE-FRONTAL COVERAGE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW APPEARS
MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF EARLY MORNING FOG WEDNESDAY...THEN PERIODS
OF MVFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ESPCLY SOUTHERN SECTIONS...AND MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR MORE
ISOLATED NATURE COVERAGE. FRONT WASHES OUT TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA FRIDAY WITH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL NATURE SHOWERS AND
STORMS...THEN PERHAPS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD SATURDAY WITH
PERIODIC MVFR IN MORE ORGANIZED COVERAGE AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE. OTRW WILL SEE A DAILY
TREND OF EARLY MVFR/IFR IN FOG...FOLLOWED BY BRIEF VFR...THEN
INCREASING AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION WHEN MVFR TO LOCAL IFR
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...WILL
BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A PART HAS BEEN BACK-ORDERED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...JH/RAB/WP
EQUIPMENT...RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 012310
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
710 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MUCH
OF TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT TRACKS SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BY
TUESDAY EVENING...BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND WASHING
OUT ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETS BACK UP OVER THE EAST BY
FRIDAY WITH YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD US THIS WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT MONDAY...

ISOLATED SHOWERS STARTING TO FIRE UP OVER THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE SOUTH
INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. NOT MUCH SUPPORT FOR ANYTHING
HIGHER THAN WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO
RELY ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTION AND HEATING WHICH THERE IS
PLENTY. WORKING AGAINST IT...IS THE LOW LVL WEST WIND...WHICH IS
PREVENTING VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT.

FOR THIS EVENING WILL STILL SEE A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO
THE MTNS WHICH COULD KEEP THE ISOLATED THREAT OF SHOWERS AROUND INTO
EARLY OVERNIGHT. SKIES SHOULD BE CLEARER AS OPPOSED TO LAST
NIGHT...BUT THE AIRMASS REMAINS MUGGY SO LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 60S MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 70S EAST.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF A FRONT SHIFTING SE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
PASSES ACROSS TUESDAY MORNING. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE WESTERN CWA
WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSRA DURING THE MORNING BUT
AGAIN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE LOOKS FEEBLE. THERE IS GOOD SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THIS FEATURE BY 18Z TUESDAY BUT ANOTHER WAVE AND THE FRONT
ITSELF WILL EDGE CLOSER TOWARD TUE EVENING...WHICH WILL BRING A
BETTER THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS WITH ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.

TUESDAY WILL BE HOT...WITH ENOUGH SUN TO SEND TEMPS INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 90S EAST...AND LOWER TO MID 80S WEST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 224 PM EDT MONDAY...

A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...PUSHING
PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST COAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED DEW POINT FRONT AND DRIER AIR
IS LAGGING WAY BEHIND AND DOES NOT ENTER THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL
LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS DEW POINT FRONT MAY MAKE IT AS FAR AS
THE VA/NC BORDER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN BEGINS TO RETREAT TO THE
NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP
MOST OF THE AREA DRY BUT COULD SEE ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS SOUTH OF
THE DEW POINT FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS THIS SURFACE
RIDGE DRIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY...SOUTHEAST FLOW
AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...ESPECIALLY THE NORTH CAROLINA
HIGH COUNTY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH FLOW IS WEAK
ALOFT...WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL OVERRUN THIS RIDGE/INSITU WEDGE TO
PRODUCE A LOW STRATUS DECK AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
EASTERLY FLOW THURSDAY WILL PRODUCE UNIFORM TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 248 PM EDT MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE EXITS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON FRIDAY AND WILL BE
REPLACED BY A LEE TROUGH. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF
STATE TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW MAY BRING A SHORT
WAVE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL HELP SPARK
CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IF THIS SHORT
WAVE DOES NOT MATERIALIZE...DIURNAL CONVECTION IS STILL POSSIBLE
WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE...AFTERNOON HEATING AND A LEE TROUGH. FOR THE
WEEKEND...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY
(GFS) OR SUNDAY (ECM). WITH A STUBBORN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH...FAVORING THE SLOWER ECM RUN. PREFRONTAL OR DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY BUT WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY. NOT QUITE SURE IF THE FRONT WILL
COMPLETE CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES
TO HANG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS
THE AREA. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN COOLER THAN
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 640 PM EDT MONDAY...

OVERALL VFR SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT UNDER DIMINISHING WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY MAKE A RUN AT
KLWB OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BUT LIKELY TO DISSIPATE
CROSSING THE RIDGES SO LEAVING OUT MENTION WITH JUST A FEW MORE
CLOUDS AROUND. WELL MIXED LOW LEVELS FROM THIS AFTERNOON LIKELY TO
INHIBIT MUCH FOG DEVELOPMENT EXCEPT FOR SOME BRIEF MVFR AT
KLYH/KDAN THAT SHOULD STAY EAST OF ANY UPSTREAM MID DECK THAT MAY
ARRIVE OVER THE WEST TOWARD DAWN. CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME BRIEF
VALLEY FOG AT KLWB/KBCB JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE ANY ADDED
CLOUDS PUSH EAST. THUS WENT WITH A BRIEF MVFR TEMPO GROUP AT
KLWB/KBCB FOR FOG ALTHOUGH FORECAST FOG STABILITY VALUES SHOW ONLY
SPOTTY COVERAGE AT BEST.

UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY WITH MOSTLY ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS/STORMS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER MAY SEE A
MORE ORGANIZED BAND DROP IN FROM THE NW WITH THE LEADING PRE-
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...SO INCLUDING A VCTS MENTION ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WEST VA SITES AROUND MID AFTERNOON AND LATE AT KBCB.
OTRW EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR AFTER EARLY MID DECK ERODES AND
SCATTERED-BROKEN CU FIELDS BETWEEN 4-6K FT TAKE SHAPE WITH
HEATING.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

FRONT SETTLES CLOSER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHEN BETTER
COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE
TIMING AND SOUTHWARD POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY AT THIS
POINT PENDING PRE-FRONTAL COVERAGE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW APPEARS
MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF EARLY MORNING FOG WEDNESDAY...THEN PERIODS
OF MVFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ESPCLY SOUTHERN SECTIONS...AND MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR MORE
ISOLATED NATURE COVERAGE. FRONT WASHES OUT TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA FRIDAY WITH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL NATURE SHOWERS AND
STORMS...THEN PERHAPS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD SATURDAY WITH
PERIODIC MVFR IN MORE ORGANIZED COVERAGE AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE. OTRW WILL SEE A DAILY
TREND OF EARLY MVFR/IFR IN FOG...FOLLOWED BY BRIEF VFR...THEN
INCREASING AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION WHEN MVFR TO LOCAL IFR
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...WILL
BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A PART HAS BEEN BACK-ORDERED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...JH/RAB/WP
EQUIPMENT...RAB



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 012242
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
642 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH TUESDAY.
A WEAK FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND SETTLES NEAR
THE VIRGINIA NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION ALONG THE SFC TROF NOW WINDING DOWN AND SHOULD CONTINUE
TO DSPT NEXT FEW HRS WITH LOSS OF HTNG. KEPT 20-30 POP ACROSS THE
CHES BAY AND ERN SHORE AREAS THRU THE EVENING. WEAK SFC RIDGING
EXPECTED TO KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY TONIGHT. MSTLY CLR TO PT
CLDY AND MUGGY. LOWS 70-75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...
MINI HEAT WAVE CULMINATES TOMORROW. 850MB TEMPERATURES AVERAGE
AROUND 20C, WHICH COMBINED WITH DEEP MIXING AND A SW WIND OF
10-15MPH SHOULD BOOST HIGHS INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S INLAND WITH
LOW 90S ALONG THE COASTLINES. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS SHOULD MIX BACK
INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S...WHICH SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SERVE TO KEEP
HEAT INDICES AOB 100. FORECAST HIGHS AVERAGE AROUND +1.5-2.0 ST
DEV ABOVE SEASONAL MEANS...AND APPROACH BUT FALL JUST SHORT OF
RECORDS...WHICH ARE LISTED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR
REFERENCE. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE SHOW MUCH OF THE AREA TO BE
WELL-CAPPED ABOVE CU BASES, AND THUS HAVE KEPT A SILENT POP
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ASIDE FROM NE NC ALONG SEA BREEZE. THE
APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT COULD
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY
LIMITED.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY:
THE FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE AREA, WITH THE SFC TROUGH BECOMING
STALLED SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BEFORE GETTING SHUNTED
BACK NORTH ON THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. GIVEN CONTINUED MOIST AIRMASS, WILL GO WITH A
20-30% POP EACH DAY CENTERED MAINLY ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS OVER
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA...BUT DO EXPECT SKY COVER TO
AVERAGE OUT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL REMAIN
ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL...BUT WILL DROPPING BACK TO AROUND
90 INLAND, SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MORNINGS SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR THU NGT/FRI...SFC HI PRES CENTERS
OFFSHORE WITH A BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. DID
INCLUDE A SLGT CHANCE-CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM (ESPECIALLY OVR WRN
AREAS) CLOSEST TO THE GREATEST MOISTURE AXIS AND SFC LEE TROF...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED. TEMPS FRI WILL RISE INTO THE UPR 80S TO
LWR 90S UNDER A MOSTLY/PARTLY SKY AND LGT SLY WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WEST
AS AN UPR-LEVEL TROF DIGS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. CHANCES FOR RAIN
WILL INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT DROPS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC. TOUGH TO EXACTLY TIME THE PRECIP THIS FAR OUT IN
TIME...BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A 30-40% CHANCE FOR SHRAS/TSTMS BOTH
SAT AND SUN. HI TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SAT WILL BE NEAR
90...DROPPING INTO THE LO TO MID 80S ON SUN WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONT TO PREVAIL THRU THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY SSW-SW 10 KT OR LESS WITH SOME OCNL GUSTS
PSBL. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF AN ISOLATED TSTM MOSTLY TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CWA THIS AFTN/EVENING...AND ALONG A
SFC TROUGH OVER ERN VA/MD LATER TONIGHT. SLY WINDS GENERALLY
AROUND 10 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK AS
A WEAK SFC TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST ON TUES...CROSSING THE REGION LATE TUES NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURS AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE
CAROLINAS. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK. SFC HI PRES REMAINS
ANCHORED OVR THE WRN ATLANTIC THIS EVENING WITH A LEE TROF OVR THE MID
ATLANTIC. RESULTING SLY FLOW WILL AVG 10-15 KT...WITH 1-2 FT WAVES
OVR THE BAY AND 2-4 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS INTO
TUE WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE
AREA AND WEAKENS TUE NGT/WED...LEADING TO LGT/VRB WINDS BY LATE
WED/WED NGT AND SEAS AOB 3 FT. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HEADLINES ATTM
DUE TO A LACK OF CAA/SURGE POST FRONTAL. HI PRES RETURNS WED NGT
THRU FRI AS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY 9/2:

RIC: 100/1980
ORF:  97/1993
SBY:  97/1980
ECG:  96/1943

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 012242
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
642 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH TUESDAY.
A WEAK FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND SETTLES NEAR
THE VIRGINIA NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION ALONG THE SFC TROF NOW WINDING DOWN AND SHOULD CONTINUE
TO DSPT NEXT FEW HRS WITH LOSS OF HTNG. KEPT 20-30 POP ACROSS THE
CHES BAY AND ERN SHORE AREAS THRU THE EVENING. WEAK SFC RIDGING
EXPECTED TO KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY TONIGHT. MSTLY CLR TO PT
CLDY AND MUGGY. LOWS 70-75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...
MINI HEAT WAVE CULMINATES TOMORROW. 850MB TEMPERATURES AVERAGE
AROUND 20C, WHICH COMBINED WITH DEEP MIXING AND A SW WIND OF
10-15MPH SHOULD BOOST HIGHS INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S INLAND WITH
LOW 90S ALONG THE COASTLINES. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS SHOULD MIX BACK
INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S...WHICH SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SERVE TO KEEP
HEAT INDICES AOB 100. FORECAST HIGHS AVERAGE AROUND +1.5-2.0 ST
DEV ABOVE SEASONAL MEANS...AND APPROACH BUT FALL JUST SHORT OF
RECORDS...WHICH ARE LISTED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR
REFERENCE. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE SHOW MUCH OF THE AREA TO BE
WELL-CAPPED ABOVE CU BASES, AND THUS HAVE KEPT A SILENT POP
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ASIDE FROM NE NC ALONG SEA BREEZE. THE
APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT COULD
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY
LIMITED.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY:
THE FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE AREA, WITH THE SFC TROUGH BECOMING
STALLED SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BEFORE GETTING SHUNTED
BACK NORTH ON THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. GIVEN CONTINUED MOIST AIRMASS, WILL GO WITH A
20-30% POP EACH DAY CENTERED MAINLY ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS OVER
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA...BUT DO EXPECT SKY COVER TO
AVERAGE OUT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL REMAIN
ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL...BUT WILL DROPPING BACK TO AROUND
90 INLAND, SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MORNINGS SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR THU NGT/FRI...SFC HI PRES CENTERS
OFFSHORE WITH A BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. DID
INCLUDE A SLGT CHANCE-CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM (ESPECIALLY OVR WRN
AREAS) CLOSEST TO THE GREATEST MOISTURE AXIS AND SFC LEE TROF...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED. TEMPS FRI WILL RISE INTO THE UPR 80S TO
LWR 90S UNDER A MOSTLY/PARTLY SKY AND LGT SLY WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WEST
AS AN UPR-LEVEL TROF DIGS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. CHANCES FOR RAIN
WILL INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT DROPS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC. TOUGH TO EXACTLY TIME THE PRECIP THIS FAR OUT IN
TIME...BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A 30-40% CHANCE FOR SHRAS/TSTMS BOTH
SAT AND SUN. HI TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SAT WILL BE NEAR
90...DROPPING INTO THE LO TO MID 80S ON SUN WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONT TO PREVAIL THRU THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY SSW-SW 10 KT OR LESS WITH SOME OCNL GUSTS
PSBL. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF AN ISOLATED TSTM MOSTLY TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CWA THIS AFTN/EVENING...AND ALONG A
SFC TROUGH OVER ERN VA/MD LATER TONIGHT. SLY WINDS GENERALLY
AROUND 10 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK AS
A WEAK SFC TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST ON TUES...CROSSING THE REGION LATE TUES NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURS AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE
CAROLINAS. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK. SFC HI PRES REMAINS
ANCHORED OVR THE WRN ATLANTIC THIS EVENING WITH A LEE TROF OVR THE MID
ATLANTIC. RESULTING SLY FLOW WILL AVG 10-15 KT...WITH 1-2 FT WAVES
OVR THE BAY AND 2-4 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS INTO
TUE WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE
AREA AND WEAKENS TUE NGT/WED...LEADING TO LGT/VRB WINDS BY LATE
WED/WED NGT AND SEAS AOB 3 FT. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HEADLINES ATTM
DUE TO A LACK OF CAA/SURGE POST FRONTAL. HI PRES RETURNS WED NGT
THRU FRI AS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY 9/2:

RIC: 100/1980
ORF:  97/1993
SBY:  97/1980
ECG:  96/1943

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 012006
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
406 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH TUESDAY.
A WEAK FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND SETTLES NEAR
THE VIRGINIA NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MIDDAY WX ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN
PLACE ALONG AND JUST INLAND OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST, AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED FROM THE DEEP SOUTH AND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. RESULTANT LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN S-SW THROUGH THE
AFTN, ALLOWING FOR A VERY WARM, MODERATELY HUMID AFTERNOON.
BEST FORCING/DYNAMICS REMAIN WELL OFF TO OUR NORTH/NORTHWEST AS
UPPER TROUGH RUNS INTO THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE, WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE
AFTN. HOWEVER, EXPECT TO SEE SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH SUNSET OR SO, MAINLY ALONG
LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH. GIVEN ALL OF THE ABOVE, STORM MODE
CONTINUES TO FAVOR PULSE/DISORGANIZED ACTIVITY...AND WILL
MAINTAIN A LOW (20-30%) POP FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS/TSTMS...AND HAVE ADDED IN THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA WEST OF I-95 THROUGH 00Z.

WEAK SFC RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO NUDGE SOUTH OVER THE AREA
OVERNIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST, WHICH SHOULD QUICKLY DECREASE THE
AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS THIS EVENING AND KEEP THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS DRY. LOOK FOR ANOTHER MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT W/LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...
MINI HEAT WAVE CULMINATES TOMORROW. 850MB TEMPERATURES AVERAGE
AROUND 20C, WHICH COMBINED WITH DEEP MIXING AND A SW WIND OF
10-15MPH SHOULD BOOST HIGHS INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S INLAND WITH
LOW 90S ALONG THE COASTLINES. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS SHOULD MIX BACK
INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S...WHICH SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SERVE TO KEEP
HEAT INDICES AOB 100. FORECAST HIGHS AVERAGE AROUND +1.5-2.0 ST
DEV ABOVE SEASONAL MEANS...AND APPROACH BUT FALL JUST SHORT OF
RECORDS...WHICH ARE LISTED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR
REFERENCE. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE SHOW MUCH OF THE AREA TO BE
WELL-CAPPED ABOVE CU BASES, AND THUS HAVE KEPT A SILENT POP
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ASIDE FROM NE NC ALONG SEA BREEZE. THE
APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT COULD
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY
LIMITED.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY:
THE FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE AREA, WITH THE SFC TROUGH BECOMING
STALLED SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BEFORE GETTING SHUNTED
BACK NORTH ON THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. GIVEN CONTINUED MOIST AIRMASS, WILL GO WITH A
20-30% POP EACH DAY CENTERED MAINLY ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS OVER
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA...BUT DO EXPECT SKY COVER TO
AVERAGE OUT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL REMAIN
ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL...BUT WILL DROPPING BACK TO AROUND
90 INLAND, SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MORNINGS SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR THU NGT/FRI...SFC HI PRES CENTERS
OFFSHORE WITH A BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. DID
INCLUDE A SLGT CHANCE-CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM (ESPECIALLY OVR WRN
AREAS) CLOSEST TO THE GREATEST MOISTURE AXIS AND SFC LEE TROF...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED. TEMPS FRI WILL RISE INTO THE UPR 80S TO
LWR 90S UNDER A MOSTLY/PARTLY SKY AND LGT SLY WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WEST
AS AN UPR-LEVEL TROF DIGS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. CHANCES FOR RAIN
WILL INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT DROPS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC. TOUGH TO EXACTLY TIME THE PRECIP THIS FAR OUT IN
TIME...BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A 30-40% CHANCE FOR SHRAS/TSTMS BOTH
SAT AND SUN. HI TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SAT WILL BE NEAR
90...DROPPING INTO THE LO TO MID 80S ON SUN WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONT TO PREVAIL THRU THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY SSW-SW 10 KT OR LESS WITH SOME OCNL GUSTS
PSBL. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF AN ISOLATED TSTM MOSTLY TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CWA THIS AFTN/EVENING...AND ALONG A
SFC TROUGH OVER ERN VA/MD LATER TONIGHT. SLY WINDS GENERALLY
AROUND 10 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK AS
A WEAK SFC TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST ON TUES...CROSSING THE REGION LATE TUES NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURS AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE
CAROLINAS. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK. SFC HI PRES REMAINS
ANCHORED OVR THE WRN ATLANTIC THIS EVENING WITH A LEE TROF OVR THE MID
ATLANTIC. RESULTING SLY FLOW WILL AVG 10-15 KT...WITH 1-2 FT WAVES
OVR THE BAY AND 2-4 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS INTO
TUE WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE
AREA AND WEAKENS TUE NGT/WED...LEADING TO LGT/VRB WINDS BY LATE
WED/WED NGT AND SEAS AOB 3 FT. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HEADLINES ATTM
DUE TO A LACK OF CAA/SURGE POST FRONTAL. HI PRES RETURNS WED NGT
THRU FRI AS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY 9/2:

RIC: 100/1980
ORF:  97/1993
SBY:  97/1980
ECG:  96/1943

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 012006
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
406 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH TUESDAY.
A WEAK FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND SETTLES NEAR
THE VIRGINIA NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MIDDAY WX ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN
PLACE ALONG AND JUST INLAND OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST, AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED FROM THE DEEP SOUTH AND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. RESULTANT LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN S-SW THROUGH THE
AFTN, ALLOWING FOR A VERY WARM, MODERATELY HUMID AFTERNOON.
BEST FORCING/DYNAMICS REMAIN WELL OFF TO OUR NORTH/NORTHWEST AS
UPPER TROUGH RUNS INTO THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE, WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE
AFTN. HOWEVER, EXPECT TO SEE SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH SUNSET OR SO, MAINLY ALONG
LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH. GIVEN ALL OF THE ABOVE, STORM MODE
CONTINUES TO FAVOR PULSE/DISORGANIZED ACTIVITY...AND WILL
MAINTAIN A LOW (20-30%) POP FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS/TSTMS...AND HAVE ADDED IN THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA WEST OF I-95 THROUGH 00Z.

WEAK SFC RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO NUDGE SOUTH OVER THE AREA
OVERNIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST, WHICH SHOULD QUICKLY DECREASE THE
AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS THIS EVENING AND KEEP THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS DRY. LOOK FOR ANOTHER MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT W/LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...
MINI HEAT WAVE CULMINATES TOMORROW. 850MB TEMPERATURES AVERAGE
AROUND 20C, WHICH COMBINED WITH DEEP MIXING AND A SW WIND OF
10-15MPH SHOULD BOOST HIGHS INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S INLAND WITH
LOW 90S ALONG THE COASTLINES. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS SHOULD MIX BACK
INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S...WHICH SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SERVE TO KEEP
HEAT INDICES AOB 100. FORECAST HIGHS AVERAGE AROUND +1.5-2.0 ST
DEV ABOVE SEASONAL MEANS...AND APPROACH BUT FALL JUST SHORT OF
RECORDS...WHICH ARE LISTED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR
REFERENCE. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE SHOW MUCH OF THE AREA TO BE
WELL-CAPPED ABOVE CU BASES, AND THUS HAVE KEPT A SILENT POP
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ASIDE FROM NE NC ALONG SEA BREEZE. THE
APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT COULD
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY
LIMITED.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY:
THE FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE AREA, WITH THE SFC TROUGH BECOMING
STALLED SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BEFORE GETTING SHUNTED
BACK NORTH ON THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. GIVEN CONTINUED MOIST AIRMASS, WILL GO WITH A
20-30% POP EACH DAY CENTERED MAINLY ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS OVER
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA...BUT DO EXPECT SKY COVER TO
AVERAGE OUT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL REMAIN
ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL...BUT WILL DROPPING BACK TO AROUND
90 INLAND, SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MORNINGS SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR THU NGT/FRI...SFC HI PRES CENTERS
OFFSHORE WITH A BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. DID
INCLUDE A SLGT CHANCE-CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM (ESPECIALLY OVR WRN
AREAS) CLOSEST TO THE GREATEST MOISTURE AXIS AND SFC LEE TROF...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED. TEMPS FRI WILL RISE INTO THE UPR 80S TO
LWR 90S UNDER A MOSTLY/PARTLY SKY AND LGT SLY WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WEST
AS AN UPR-LEVEL TROF DIGS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. CHANCES FOR RAIN
WILL INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT DROPS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC. TOUGH TO EXACTLY TIME THE PRECIP THIS FAR OUT IN
TIME...BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A 30-40% CHANCE FOR SHRAS/TSTMS BOTH
SAT AND SUN. HI TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SAT WILL BE NEAR
90...DROPPING INTO THE LO TO MID 80S ON SUN WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONT TO PREVAIL THRU THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY SSW-SW 10 KT OR LESS WITH SOME OCNL GUSTS
PSBL. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF AN ISOLATED TSTM MOSTLY TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CWA THIS AFTN/EVENING...AND ALONG A
SFC TROUGH OVER ERN VA/MD LATER TONIGHT. SLY WINDS GENERALLY
AROUND 10 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK AS
A WEAK SFC TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST ON TUES...CROSSING THE REGION LATE TUES NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURS AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE
CAROLINAS. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK. SFC HI PRES REMAINS
ANCHORED OVR THE WRN ATLANTIC THIS EVENING WITH A LEE TROF OVR THE MID
ATLANTIC. RESULTING SLY FLOW WILL AVG 10-15 KT...WITH 1-2 FT WAVES
OVR THE BAY AND 2-4 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS INTO
TUE WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE
AREA AND WEAKENS TUE NGT/WED...LEADING TO LGT/VRB WINDS BY LATE
WED/WED NGT AND SEAS AOB 3 FT. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HEADLINES ATTM
DUE TO A LACK OF CAA/SURGE POST FRONTAL. HI PRES RETURNS WED NGT
THRU FRI AS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY 9/2:

RIC: 100/1980
ORF:  97/1993
SBY:  97/1980
ECG:  96/1943

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 011959
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
359 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH TUESDAY.
A WEAK FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND SETTLES NEAR
THE VIRGINIA NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MIDDAY WX ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN
PLACE ALONG AND JUST INLAND OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST, AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED FROM THE DEEP SOUTH AND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. RESULTANT LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN S-SW THROUGH THE
AFTN, ALLOWING FOR A VERY WARM, MODERATELY HUMID AFTERNOON.
BEST FORCING/DYNAMICS REMAIN WELL OFF TO OUR NORTH/NORTHWEST AS
UPPER TROUGH RUNS INTO THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE, WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE
AFTN. HOWEVER, EXPECT TO SEE SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH SUNSET OR SO, MAINLY ALONG
LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH. GIVEN ALL OF THE ABOVE, STORM MODE
CONTINUES TO FAVOR PULSE/DISORGANIZED ACTIVITY...AND WILL
MAINTAIN A LOW (20-30%) POP FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS/TSTMS...AND HAVE ADDED IN THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA WEST OF I-95 THROUGH 00Z.

WEAK SFC RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO NUDGE SOUTH OVER THE AREA
OVERNIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST, WHICH SHOULD QUICKLY DECREASE THE
AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS THIS EVENING AND KEEP THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS DRY. LOOK FOR ANOTHER MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT W/LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...
MINI HEAT WAVE CULMINATES TOMORROW. 850MB TEMPERATURES AVERAGE
AROUND 20C, WHICH COMBINED WITH DEEP MIXING AND A SW WIND OF
10-15MPH SHOULD BOOST HIGHS INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S INLAND WITH
LOW 90S ALONG THE COASTLINES. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS SHOULD MIX BACK
INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S...WHICH SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SERVE TO KEEP
HEAT INDICES AOB 100. FORECAST HIGHS AVERAGE AROUND +1.5-2.0 ST
DEV ABOVE SEASONAL MEANS...AND APPROACH BUT FALL SHORT OF
RECORDS...WHICH ARE LISTED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR
REFERENCE. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE SHOW MUCH OF THE AREA TO BE
WELL-CAPPED ABOVE CU BASES, AND THUS HAVE KEPT A SILENT POP THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY ASIDE FROM NE NC ALONG SEA BREEZE. THE APPROACH
AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT COULD TRIGGER
A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY:
THE FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE AREA, WITH THE SFC TROUGH BECOMING
STALLED SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BEFORE GETTING SHUNTED
BACK NORTH ON THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. GIVEN CONTINUED MOIST AIRMASS, WILL GO WITH A
20-30% POP EACH DAY CENTERED MAINLY ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS OVER
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA...BUT DO EXPECT SKY COVER TO
AVERAGE OUT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL REMAIN
ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL...BUT WILL DROPPING BACK TO AROUND
90 INLAND, SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MORNINGS SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR THU NGT/FRI...SFC HI PRES CENTERS
OFFSHORE WITH A BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. DID
INCLUDE A SLGT CHANCE-CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM (ESPECIALLY OVR WRN
AREAS) CLOSEST TO THE GREATEST MOISTURE AXIS AND SFC LEE TROF...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED. TEMPS FRI WILL RISE INTO THE UPR 80S TO
LWR 90S UNDER A MOSTLY/PARTLY SKY AND LGT SLY WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WEST
AS AN UPR-LEVEL TROF DIGS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. CHANCES FOR RAIN
WILL INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT DROPS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC. TOUGH TO EXACTLY TIME THE PRECIP THIS FAR OUT IN
TIME...BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A 30-40% CHANCE FOR SHRAS/TSTMS BOTH
SAT AND SUN. HI TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SAT WILL BE NEAR
90...DROPPING INTO THE LO TO MID 80S ON SUN WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONT TO PREVAIL THRU THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY SSW-SW 10 KT OR LESS WITH SOME OCNL GUSTS
PSBL. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF AN ISOLATED TSTM MOSTLY TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CWA THIS AFTN/EVENING...AND ALONG A
SFC TROUGH OVER ERN VA/MD LATER TONIGHT. SLY WINDS GENERALLY
AROUND 10 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK AS
A WEAK SFC TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST ON TUES...CROSSING THE REGION LATE TUES NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURS AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE
CAROLINAS. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK. SFC HI PRES REMAINS
ANCHORED OVR THE WRN ATLANTIC THIS EVENING WITH A LEE TROF OVR THE MID
ATLANTIC. RESULTING SLY FLOW WILL AVG 10-15 KT...WITH 1-2 FT WAVES
OVR THE BAY AND 2-4 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS INTO
TUE WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE
AREA AND WEAKENS TUE NGT/WED...LEADING TO LGT/VRB WINDS BY LATE
WED/WED NGT AND SEAS AOB 3 FT. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HEADLINES ATTM
DUE TO A LACK OF CAA/SURGE POST FRONTAL. HI PRES RETURNS WED NGT
THRU FRI AS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY 9/2:

RIC: 100/1980
ORF:  97/1993
SBY:  97/1980
ECG:  96/1943

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...SAM
CLIMATE...









000
FXUS61 KAKQ 011959
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
359 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH TUESDAY.
A WEAK FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND SETTLES NEAR
THE VIRGINIA NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MIDDAY WX ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN
PLACE ALONG AND JUST INLAND OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST, AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED FROM THE DEEP SOUTH AND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. RESULTANT LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN S-SW THROUGH THE
AFTN, ALLOWING FOR A VERY WARM, MODERATELY HUMID AFTERNOON.
BEST FORCING/DYNAMICS REMAIN WELL OFF TO OUR NORTH/NORTHWEST AS
UPPER TROUGH RUNS INTO THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE, WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE
AFTN. HOWEVER, EXPECT TO SEE SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH SUNSET OR SO, MAINLY ALONG
LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH. GIVEN ALL OF THE ABOVE, STORM MODE
CONTINUES TO FAVOR PULSE/DISORGANIZED ACTIVITY...AND WILL
MAINTAIN A LOW (20-30%) POP FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS/TSTMS...AND HAVE ADDED IN THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA WEST OF I-95 THROUGH 00Z.

WEAK SFC RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO NUDGE SOUTH OVER THE AREA
OVERNIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST, WHICH SHOULD QUICKLY DECREASE THE
AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS THIS EVENING AND KEEP THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS DRY. LOOK FOR ANOTHER MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT W/LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...
MINI HEAT WAVE CULMINATES TOMORROW. 850MB TEMPERATURES AVERAGE
AROUND 20C, WHICH COMBINED WITH DEEP MIXING AND A SW WIND OF
10-15MPH SHOULD BOOST HIGHS INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S INLAND WITH
LOW 90S ALONG THE COASTLINES. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS SHOULD MIX BACK
INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S...WHICH SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SERVE TO KEEP
HEAT INDICES AOB 100. FORECAST HIGHS AVERAGE AROUND +1.5-2.0 ST
DEV ABOVE SEASONAL MEANS...AND APPROACH BUT FALL SHORT OF
RECORDS...WHICH ARE LISTED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR
REFERENCE. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE SHOW MUCH OF THE AREA TO BE
WELL-CAPPED ABOVE CU BASES, AND THUS HAVE KEPT A SILENT POP THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY ASIDE FROM NE NC ALONG SEA BREEZE. THE APPROACH
AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT COULD TRIGGER
A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY:
THE FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE AREA, WITH THE SFC TROUGH BECOMING
STALLED SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BEFORE GETTING SHUNTED
BACK NORTH ON THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. GIVEN CONTINUED MOIST AIRMASS, WILL GO WITH A
20-30% POP EACH DAY CENTERED MAINLY ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS OVER
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA...BUT DO EXPECT SKY COVER TO
AVERAGE OUT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL REMAIN
ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL...BUT WILL DROPPING BACK TO AROUND
90 INLAND, SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MORNINGS SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR THU NGT/FRI...SFC HI PRES CENTERS
OFFSHORE WITH A BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. DID
INCLUDE A SLGT CHANCE-CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM (ESPECIALLY OVR WRN
AREAS) CLOSEST TO THE GREATEST MOISTURE AXIS AND SFC LEE TROF...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED. TEMPS FRI WILL RISE INTO THE UPR 80S TO
LWR 90S UNDER A MOSTLY/PARTLY SKY AND LGT SLY WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WEST
AS AN UPR-LEVEL TROF DIGS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. CHANCES FOR RAIN
WILL INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT DROPS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC. TOUGH TO EXACTLY TIME THE PRECIP THIS FAR OUT IN
TIME...BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A 30-40% CHANCE FOR SHRAS/TSTMS BOTH
SAT AND SUN. HI TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SAT WILL BE NEAR
90...DROPPING INTO THE LO TO MID 80S ON SUN WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONT TO PREVAIL THRU THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY SSW-SW 10 KT OR LESS WITH SOME OCNL GUSTS
PSBL. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF AN ISOLATED TSTM MOSTLY TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CWA THIS AFTN/EVENING...AND ALONG A
SFC TROUGH OVER ERN VA/MD LATER TONIGHT. SLY WINDS GENERALLY
AROUND 10 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK AS
A WEAK SFC TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST ON TUES...CROSSING THE REGION LATE TUES NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURS AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE
CAROLINAS. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK. SFC HI PRES REMAINS
ANCHORED OVR THE WRN ATLANTIC THIS EVENING WITH A LEE TROF OVR THE MID
ATLANTIC. RESULTING SLY FLOW WILL AVG 10-15 KT...WITH 1-2 FT WAVES
OVR THE BAY AND 2-4 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS INTO
TUE WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE
AREA AND WEAKENS TUE NGT/WED...LEADING TO LGT/VRB WINDS BY LATE
WED/WED NGT AND SEAS AOB 3 FT. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HEADLINES ATTM
DUE TO A LACK OF CAA/SURGE POST FRONTAL. HI PRES RETURNS WED NGT
THRU FRI AS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY 9/2:

RIC: 100/1980
ORF:  97/1993
SBY:  97/1980
ECG:  96/1943

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...SAM
CLIMATE...










000
FXUS61 KRNK 011909
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
309 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT TRACKS SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BY TUESDAY
EVENING...BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND WASHING OUT.
HIGH PRESSURE SETS BACK UP OVER THE EAST BY FRIDAY WITH YET
ANOTHER FRONT MOVING TOWARD US THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT MONDAY...

ISOLATED SHOWERS STARTING TO FIRE UP OVER THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE SOUTH
INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. NOT MUCH SUPPORT FOR ANYTHING
HIGHER THAN WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO
RELY ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTION AND HEATING WHICH THERE IS
PLENTY. WORKING AGAINST IT...IS THE LOW LVL WEST WIND...WHICH IS
PREVENTING VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT.

FOR THIS EVENING WILL STILL SEE A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO
THE MTNS WHICH COULD KEEP THE ISOLATED THREAT OF SHOWERS AROUND INTO
EARLY OVERNIGHT. SKIES SHOULD BE CLEARER AS OPPOSED TO LAST
NIGHT...BUT THE AIRMASS REMAINS MUGGY SO LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 60S MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 70S EAST.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF A FRONT SHIFTING SE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
PASSES ACROSS TUESDAY MORNING. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE WESTERN CWA
WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSRA DURING THE MORNING BUT
AGAIN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE LOOKS FEEBLE. THERE IS GOOD SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THIS FEATURE BY 18Z TUESDAY BUT ANOTHER WAVE AND THE FRONT
ITSELF WILL EDGE CLOSER TOWARD TUE EVENING...WHICH WILL BRING A
BETTER THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS WITH ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.

TUESDAY WILL BE HOT...WITH ENOUGH SUN TO SEND TEMPS INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 90S EAST...AND LOWER TO MID 80S WEST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 224 PM EDT MONDAY...

A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...PUSHING
PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST COAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED DEW POINT FRONT AND DRIER AIR
IS LAGGING WAY BEHIND AND DOES NOT ENTER THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL
LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS DEW POINT FRONT MAY MAKE IT AS FAR AS
THE VA/NC BORDER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN BEGINS TO RETREAT TO THE
NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP
MOST OF THE AREA DRY BUT COULD SEE ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS SOUTH OF
THE DEW POINT FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS THIS SURFACE
RIDGE DRIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY...SOUTHEAST FLOW
AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...ESPECIALLY THE NORTH CAROLINA
HIGH COUNTY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH FLOW IS WEAK
ALOFT...WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL OVERRUN THIS RIDGE/INSITU WEDGE TO
PRODUCE A LOW STRATUS DECK AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
EASTERLY FLOW THURSDAY WILL PRODUCE UNIFORM TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 248 PM EDT MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE EXITS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON FRIDAY AND WILL BE
REPLACED BY A LEE TROUGH. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF
STATE TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW MAY BRING A SHORT
WAVE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL HELP SPARK
CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IF THIS SHORT
WAVE DOES NOT MATERIALIZE...DIURNAL CONVECTION IS STILL POSSIBLE
WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE...AFTERNOON HEATING AND A LEE TROUGH. FOR THE
WEEKEND...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY
(GFS) OR SUNDAY (ECM). WITH A STUBBORN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH...FAVORING THE SLOWER ECM RUN. PREFRONTAL OR DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY BUT WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY. NOT QUITE SURE IF THE FRONT WILL
COMPLETE CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES
TO HANG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS
THE AREA. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN COOLER THAN
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT MONDAY...

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE GOING TO GUST AT TIMES TO 15-20KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE WEAKENING AT DUSK. OVERNIGHT VSBYS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE A PROBLEM THOUGH BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT
LYH/DAN SUGGEST MVFR FOG...AND WITH LESS CLOUDS ADDED THIS IN
TOWARD DAWN TUESDAY. MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST-SW
LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MOUNTAINS. EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY WITH SIMILAR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. FRONT SETTLES CLOSER TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHEN BETTER COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA IS
EXPECTED...AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTH THURSDAY WHERE THE BOUNDARY
STALLS. HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND SOUTHWARD
POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY AT THIS POINT. THUS APPEARS MAINLY VFR
ON TUESDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY IN MORE
ORGANIZED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION...AND MVFR/IFR UNDER
EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE VALLEYS AND WHERE EARLIER HEAVY RAIN
OCCURRED. FRONT WASHES OUT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY WITH
MORE DIURNAL NATURE SHOWERS AND STORMS...OTRW VFR.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...WILL
BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A PART HAS BEEN BACK-ORDERED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...RAB/WP
EQUIPMENT...RAB



000
FXUS61 KRNK 011909
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
309 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT TRACKS SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BY TUESDAY
EVENING...BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND WASHING OUT.
HIGH PRESSURE SETS BACK UP OVER THE EAST BY FRIDAY WITH YET
ANOTHER FRONT MOVING TOWARD US THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT MONDAY...

ISOLATED SHOWERS STARTING TO FIRE UP OVER THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE SOUTH
INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. NOT MUCH SUPPORT FOR ANYTHING
HIGHER THAN WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO
RELY ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTION AND HEATING WHICH THERE IS
PLENTY. WORKING AGAINST IT...IS THE LOW LVL WEST WIND...WHICH IS
PREVENTING VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT.

FOR THIS EVENING WILL STILL SEE A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO
THE MTNS WHICH COULD KEEP THE ISOLATED THREAT OF SHOWERS AROUND INTO
EARLY OVERNIGHT. SKIES SHOULD BE CLEARER AS OPPOSED TO LAST
NIGHT...BUT THE AIRMASS REMAINS MUGGY SO LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 60S MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 70S EAST.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF A FRONT SHIFTING SE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
PASSES ACROSS TUESDAY MORNING. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE WESTERN CWA
WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSRA DURING THE MORNING BUT
AGAIN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE LOOKS FEEBLE. THERE IS GOOD SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THIS FEATURE BY 18Z TUESDAY BUT ANOTHER WAVE AND THE FRONT
ITSELF WILL EDGE CLOSER TOWARD TUE EVENING...WHICH WILL BRING A
BETTER THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS WITH ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.

TUESDAY WILL BE HOT...WITH ENOUGH SUN TO SEND TEMPS INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 90S EAST...AND LOWER TO MID 80S WEST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 224 PM EDT MONDAY...

A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...PUSHING
PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST COAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED DEW POINT FRONT AND DRIER AIR
IS LAGGING WAY BEHIND AND DOES NOT ENTER THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL
LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS DEW POINT FRONT MAY MAKE IT AS FAR AS
THE VA/NC BORDER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN BEGINS TO RETREAT TO THE
NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP
MOST OF THE AREA DRY BUT COULD SEE ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS SOUTH OF
THE DEW POINT FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS THIS SURFACE
RIDGE DRIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY...SOUTHEAST FLOW
AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...ESPECIALLY THE NORTH CAROLINA
HIGH COUNTY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH FLOW IS WEAK
ALOFT...WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL OVERRUN THIS RIDGE/INSITU WEDGE TO
PRODUCE A LOW STRATUS DECK AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
EASTERLY FLOW THURSDAY WILL PRODUCE UNIFORM TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 248 PM EDT MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE EXITS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON FRIDAY AND WILL BE
REPLACED BY A LEE TROUGH. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF
STATE TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW MAY BRING A SHORT
WAVE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL HELP SPARK
CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IF THIS SHORT
WAVE DOES NOT MATERIALIZE...DIURNAL CONVECTION IS STILL POSSIBLE
WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE...AFTERNOON HEATING AND A LEE TROUGH. FOR THE
WEEKEND...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY
(GFS) OR SUNDAY (ECM). WITH A STUBBORN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH...FAVORING THE SLOWER ECM RUN. PREFRONTAL OR DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY BUT WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY. NOT QUITE SURE IF THE FRONT WILL
COMPLETE CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES
TO HANG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS
THE AREA. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN COOLER THAN
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT MONDAY...

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE GOING TO GUST AT TIMES TO 15-20KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE WEAKENING AT DUSK. OVERNIGHT VSBYS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE A PROBLEM THOUGH BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT
LYH/DAN SUGGEST MVFR FOG...AND WITH LESS CLOUDS ADDED THIS IN
TOWARD DAWN TUESDAY. MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST-SW
LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MOUNTAINS. EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY WITH SIMILAR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. FRONT SETTLES CLOSER TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHEN BETTER COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA IS
EXPECTED...AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTH THURSDAY WHERE THE BOUNDARY
STALLS. HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND SOUTHWARD
POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY AT THIS POINT. THUS APPEARS MAINLY VFR
ON TUESDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY IN MORE
ORGANIZED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION...AND MVFR/IFR UNDER
EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE VALLEYS AND WHERE EARLIER HEAVY RAIN
OCCURRED. FRONT WASHES OUT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY WITH
MORE DIURNAL NATURE SHOWERS AND STORMS...OTRW VFR.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...WILL
BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A PART HAS BEEN BACK-ORDERED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...RAB/WP
EQUIPMENT...RAB




000
FXUS61 KLWX 011841
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
241 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN REACHED ACROSS THE CWA...CU HAVE
BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED AND AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED
OVER THE LAST HOUR OR TWO.

CONVECTION WILL LIKELY GROW INTO THUNDERSTORMS AS PEAK HEATING
CONTRIBUTES TO INCREASED INSTABILITY. LOW LEVELS REMAIN MOIST AS
WELL...WITH DEWPOINTS WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 70 DEGREES ALTHOUGH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS LIKELY HAVE DECREASED A LITTLE BIT DUE TO
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR.

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND INCORPORATING LATEST RUNS OF HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS...CONVECTION OVER WESTERN MD/EASTERN WV/NORTHERN
VA WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION UPSTREAM COULD ALSO MAKE IT INTO THE CWA BEFORE SUNSET.
GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THUNDERSTORMS BUT STORM MOTION SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO LIMIT FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. CAN/T RULE OUT
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS IN STRONGER STORMS EITHER BUT GIVEN WEAK SHEAR
SEVERE RISK IS LOW.

MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST/DISSIPATE BY THE TIME THE SUN
SETS...ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE OUT A ROGUE SHOWER ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AT 12Z TUE.
BUT FRONT WILL MARCH EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...MAKING IT TO THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS BY LATE AFTERNOON. PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
WARM AND MOIST...BUT CONVECTION LIKELY WAITS UNTIL THE FRONT GETS
CLOSER TO THE CWA AND HAVE POPS EXPANDING EASTWARD WITH TIME HIGHEST
IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

THERE IS THE RISK FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE /DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS/ TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY BEFORE DARK DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
INSTABILITY AND INCREASED SHEAR. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FURTHER
DOWNSTREAM ONCE THE SUN SETS. FRONT MOVES THROUGH AT NIGHT. POPS
LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST.

DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH THE RETURN OF SUNSHINE. WHILE
DEWPOINTS ARE LOWER...DOWNSLOPING WILL SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WHICH STILL MAY BE NEAR 90. SAME TYPE OF SCENARIO ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...MOISTURE AND WEAK PVA MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPLY
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. INCREASED MOISTURE
AND THE PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER
ACTIVITY OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE HUBS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...LIKELY ENDING BY SUNSET. VCTS CURRENTLY IN
TAFS...BASED ON RADAR TRENDS MAY NEED TO AMEND FOR TSRA INCLUSION.
REST OF THE NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE DRY...TSRA POSSIBLE
AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
PRIMARY CONCERN THIS EVENING WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT AFFECT THE WATERS THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL...WITH GUSTY WINDS AGAIN POSSIBLE.
FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR
WEDNESDAY.

SOUTHERLY CHANNELLING/SCA CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE LATE
FRIDAY. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP/CEM
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...BPP/CEM
MARINE...BPP/CEM








000
FXUS61 KLWX 011841
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
241 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN REACHED ACROSS THE CWA...CU HAVE
BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED AND AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED
OVER THE LAST HOUR OR TWO.

CONVECTION WILL LIKELY GROW INTO THUNDERSTORMS AS PEAK HEATING
CONTRIBUTES TO INCREASED INSTABILITY. LOW LEVELS REMAIN MOIST AS
WELL...WITH DEWPOINTS WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 70 DEGREES ALTHOUGH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS LIKELY HAVE DECREASED A LITTLE BIT DUE TO
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR.

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND INCORPORATING LATEST RUNS OF HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS...CONVECTION OVER WESTERN MD/EASTERN WV/NORTHERN
VA WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION UPSTREAM COULD ALSO MAKE IT INTO THE CWA BEFORE SUNSET.
GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THUNDERSTORMS BUT STORM MOTION SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO LIMIT FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. CAN/T RULE OUT
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS IN STRONGER STORMS EITHER BUT GIVEN WEAK SHEAR
SEVERE RISK IS LOW.

MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST/DISSIPATE BY THE TIME THE SUN
SETS...ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE OUT A ROGUE SHOWER ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AT 12Z TUE.
BUT FRONT WILL MARCH EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...MAKING IT TO THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS BY LATE AFTERNOON. PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
WARM AND MOIST...BUT CONVECTION LIKELY WAITS UNTIL THE FRONT GETS
CLOSER TO THE CWA AND HAVE POPS EXPANDING EASTWARD WITH TIME HIGHEST
IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

THERE IS THE RISK FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE /DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS/ TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY BEFORE DARK DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
INSTABILITY AND INCREASED SHEAR. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FURTHER
DOWNSTREAM ONCE THE SUN SETS. FRONT MOVES THROUGH AT NIGHT. POPS
LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST.

DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH THE RETURN OF SUNSHINE. WHILE
DEWPOINTS ARE LOWER...DOWNSLOPING WILL SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WHICH STILL MAY BE NEAR 90. SAME TYPE OF SCENARIO ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...MOISTURE AND WEAK PVA MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPLY
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. INCREASED MOISTURE
AND THE PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER
ACTIVITY OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE HUBS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...LIKELY ENDING BY SUNSET. VCTS CURRENTLY IN
TAFS...BASED ON RADAR TRENDS MAY NEED TO AMEND FOR TSRA INCLUSION.
REST OF THE NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE DRY...TSRA POSSIBLE
AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
PRIMARY CONCERN THIS EVENING WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT AFFECT THE WATERS THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL...WITH GUSTY WINDS AGAIN POSSIBLE.
FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR
WEDNESDAY.

SOUTHERLY CHANNELLING/SCA CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE LATE
FRIDAY. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP/CEM
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...BPP/CEM
MARINE...BPP/CEM







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 011817
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
217 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TODAY AND
TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
SETTLES NEAR THE VIRGINIA NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MIDDAY WX ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN
PLACE ALONG AND JUST INLAND OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST, AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED FROM THE DEEP SOUTH AND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. RESULTANT LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN S-SW THROUGH THE
AFTN, ALLOWING FOR A VERY WARM, MODERATELY HUMID AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK. 850MB TEMPERATURES
APPROACH 20C BY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD EASILY SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
MID 90S AWAY FROM THE COASTLINES...WITH UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG
THE COASTS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD GENERALLY AVERAGE 65-70F DURING PEAK
HEATING AND THIS SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICES AOB 100. THERE WILL BE
NO SUBSTANTIAL TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH A LINGERING
SURFACE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A LOW (20-30%) POP FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS, MAINLY E OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

WEAK SFC RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT, WHICH SHOULD
KEEP THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DRY. LOOK FOR ANOTHER MILD AND MUGGY
NIGHT. ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE HOTTEST DAY AS 850MB TEMPERATURES AVERAGE
AROUND 20C. THIS COMBINED WITH DEEP MIXING AND A SW WIND OF
10-15MPH SHOULD HELP BOOST HIGHS INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S INLAND
WITH LOW 90S ALONG THE COASTLINES. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS SHOULD FALL
INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S...AND ONCE AGAIN THIS SHOULD KEEP HEAT
INDICES AOB 100. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS AVERAGE AROUND +1.5-2.0 ST
DEV ABOVE SEASONAL MEANS...AND APPROACH BUT FALL SHORT OF
RECORDS...WHICH ARE LISTED BELOW FOR REFERENCE. TUESDAY SHOULD
GENERALLY BE DRY AS A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION INHIBITS CONVECTION.
THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT COULD
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY
LIMITED.

THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT CHC POP
WILL BE MAINTAINED IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT OVERALL EXPECT
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY SHOULD DROP BACK
INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S. LOWS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MORNINGS SHOULD
AVERAGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR WED NGT/THU...AFOREMENTIONED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WASHES OUT OVR/JUST S OF THE FA WHILE SFC HI PRES BLDS ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC. DID INCLUDE A SLGT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM OVR SRN
AREAS CLOSEST TO THE GREATEST MOISTURE AXIS AND FORCING...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE UPR 80S TO
LWR 90S UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LGT ONSHORE WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA. SFC HI PRES REMAINS
OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WEST.
MODELS AGREE ON TIMING THE FRONT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC OVR THE
WEEKEND...SO DID INTRODUCE A CHANCE (30%) FOR AFTN/EVENG
SHRAS/TSTMS. HI TEMPS FRI AND SAT WILL BE IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S
WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONT TO PREVAIL THRU THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY SSW-SW 10 KT OR LESS WITH SOME OCNL GUSTS
PSBL. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF AN ISOLATED TSTM MOSTLY TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CWA THIS AFTN/EVENING...AND ALONG A
SFC TROUGH OVER ERN VA/MD LATER TONIGHT. SLY WINDS GENERALLY
AROUND 10 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK AS
A WEAK SFC TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST ON TUES...CROSSING THE REGION LATE TUES NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURS AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE
CAROLINAS. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC AS A WEAK
SFC TROUGH LOCATES WEST OF THE WATERS. RESULTANT GRADIENT SLY FLOW
OVER WARM WATERS HAS PUSHED SPEEDS TO AROUND 15 KT IN THE BAY AND
15-20 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. WAVES ALSO AVG 2-3 FT AND SEAS 3-4
FT. SCA CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED THRU THE EARLY MORNING. LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE PATTERN TODAY WITH SLY WINDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT OVER
THE WATERS. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT TODAY AND WAVES 1-2 FT. SLY FLOW
INCREASES AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS AS
FLOW BECOMES MORE SWLY. SEAS FORECAST TO BUILD BACK TO 3-4 FT...BUT
REMAIN SUB-SCA. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
TUES...CROSSING THE WATERS LATE TUES NIGHT INTO WEDS. STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS PRE-FRONTAL LATE
TUES-TUES NIGHT...BUT WAA ALOFT WILL RESULT IN UNFAVORABLE LAPSE
RATES. 10-15 KT FORECAST OVER THE BAY AND 15-20 OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. SEAS REMAIN 3-4 FT. FLOW BECOMES W-NW BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT/LACK OF CAA WILL PREVENT SCA CONDITIONS POST
FRONTAL. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT WEDS...SETTLING
OVER THE WATERS WEDS NIGHT THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. AS A
RESULT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
WINDS AOB 10 KT AND SEAS/WAVES AOB 2 FT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY 9/2:

RIC: 100/1980
ORF:  97/1993
SBY:  97/1980
ECG:  96/1943

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...SAM
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 011817
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
217 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TODAY AND
TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
SETTLES NEAR THE VIRGINIA NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MIDDAY WX ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN
PLACE ALONG AND JUST INLAND OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST, AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED FROM THE DEEP SOUTH AND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. RESULTANT LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN S-SW THROUGH THE
AFTN, ALLOWING FOR A VERY WARM, MODERATELY HUMID AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK. 850MB TEMPERATURES
APPROACH 20C BY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD EASILY SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
MID 90S AWAY FROM THE COASTLINES...WITH UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG
THE COASTS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD GENERALLY AVERAGE 65-70F DURING PEAK
HEATING AND THIS SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICES AOB 100. THERE WILL BE
NO SUBSTANTIAL TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH A LINGERING
SURFACE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A LOW (20-30%) POP FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS, MAINLY E OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

WEAK SFC RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT, WHICH SHOULD
KEEP THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DRY. LOOK FOR ANOTHER MILD AND MUGGY
NIGHT. ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE HOTTEST DAY AS 850MB TEMPERATURES AVERAGE
AROUND 20C. THIS COMBINED WITH DEEP MIXING AND A SW WIND OF
10-15MPH SHOULD HELP BOOST HIGHS INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S INLAND
WITH LOW 90S ALONG THE COASTLINES. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS SHOULD FALL
INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S...AND ONCE AGAIN THIS SHOULD KEEP HEAT
INDICES AOB 100. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS AVERAGE AROUND +1.5-2.0 ST
DEV ABOVE SEASONAL MEANS...AND APPROACH BUT FALL SHORT OF
RECORDS...WHICH ARE LISTED BELOW FOR REFERENCE. TUESDAY SHOULD
GENERALLY BE DRY AS A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION INHIBITS CONVECTION.
THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT COULD
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY
LIMITED.

THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT CHC POP
WILL BE MAINTAINED IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT OVERALL EXPECT
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY SHOULD DROP BACK
INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S. LOWS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MORNINGS SHOULD
AVERAGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR WED NGT/THU...AFOREMENTIONED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WASHES OUT OVR/JUST S OF THE FA WHILE SFC HI PRES BLDS ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC. DID INCLUDE A SLGT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM OVR SRN
AREAS CLOSEST TO THE GREATEST MOISTURE AXIS AND FORCING...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE UPR 80S TO
LWR 90S UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LGT ONSHORE WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA. SFC HI PRES REMAINS
OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WEST.
MODELS AGREE ON TIMING THE FRONT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC OVR THE
WEEKEND...SO DID INTRODUCE A CHANCE (30%) FOR AFTN/EVENG
SHRAS/TSTMS. HI TEMPS FRI AND SAT WILL BE IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S
WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONT TO PREVAIL THRU THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY SSW-SW 10 KT OR LESS WITH SOME OCNL GUSTS
PSBL. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF AN ISOLATED TSTM MOSTLY TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CWA THIS AFTN/EVENING...AND ALONG A
SFC TROUGH OVER ERN VA/MD LATER TONIGHT. SLY WINDS GENERALLY
AROUND 10 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK AS
A WEAK SFC TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST ON TUES...CROSSING THE REGION LATE TUES NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURS AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE
CAROLINAS. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC AS A WEAK
SFC TROUGH LOCATES WEST OF THE WATERS. RESULTANT GRADIENT SLY FLOW
OVER WARM WATERS HAS PUSHED SPEEDS TO AROUND 15 KT IN THE BAY AND
15-20 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. WAVES ALSO AVG 2-3 FT AND SEAS 3-4
FT. SCA CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED THRU THE EARLY MORNING. LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE PATTERN TODAY WITH SLY WINDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT OVER
THE WATERS. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT TODAY AND WAVES 1-2 FT. SLY FLOW
INCREASES AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS AS
FLOW BECOMES MORE SWLY. SEAS FORECAST TO BUILD BACK TO 3-4 FT...BUT
REMAIN SUB-SCA. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
TUES...CROSSING THE WATERS LATE TUES NIGHT INTO WEDS. STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS PRE-FRONTAL LATE
TUES-TUES NIGHT...BUT WAA ALOFT WILL RESULT IN UNFAVORABLE LAPSE
RATES. 10-15 KT FORECAST OVER THE BAY AND 15-20 OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. SEAS REMAIN 3-4 FT. FLOW BECOMES W-NW BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT/LACK OF CAA WILL PREVENT SCA CONDITIONS POST
FRONTAL. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT WEDS...SETTLING
OVER THE WATERS WEDS NIGHT THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. AS A
RESULT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
WINDS AOB 10 KT AND SEAS/WAVES AOB 2 FT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY 9/2:

RIC: 100/1980
ORF:  97/1993
SBY:  97/1980
ECG:  96/1943

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...SAM
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 011817
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
217 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TODAY AND
TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
SETTLES NEAR THE VIRGINIA NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MIDDAY WX ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN
PLACE ALONG AND JUST INLAND OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST, AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED FROM THE DEEP SOUTH AND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. RESULTANT LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN S-SW THROUGH THE
AFTN, ALLOWING FOR A VERY WARM, MODERATELY HUMID AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK. 850MB TEMPERATURES
APPROACH 20C BY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD EASILY SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
MID 90S AWAY FROM THE COASTLINES...WITH UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG
THE COASTS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD GENERALLY AVERAGE 65-70F DURING PEAK
HEATING AND THIS SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICES AOB 100. THERE WILL BE
NO SUBSTANTIAL TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH A LINGERING
SURFACE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A LOW (20-30%) POP FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS, MAINLY E OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

WEAK SFC RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT, WHICH SHOULD
KEEP THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DRY. LOOK FOR ANOTHER MILD AND MUGGY
NIGHT. ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE HOTTEST DAY AS 850MB TEMPERATURES AVERAGE
AROUND 20C. THIS COMBINED WITH DEEP MIXING AND A SW WIND OF
10-15MPH SHOULD HELP BOOST HIGHS INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S INLAND
WITH LOW 90S ALONG THE COASTLINES. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS SHOULD FALL
INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S...AND ONCE AGAIN THIS SHOULD KEEP HEAT
INDICES AOB 100. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS AVERAGE AROUND +1.5-2.0 ST
DEV ABOVE SEASONAL MEANS...AND APPROACH BUT FALL SHORT OF
RECORDS...WHICH ARE LISTED BELOW FOR REFERENCE. TUESDAY SHOULD
GENERALLY BE DRY AS A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION INHIBITS CONVECTION.
THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT COULD
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY
LIMITED.

THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT CHC POP
WILL BE MAINTAINED IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT OVERALL EXPECT
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY SHOULD DROP BACK
INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S. LOWS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MORNINGS SHOULD
AVERAGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR WED NGT/THU...AFOREMENTIONED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WASHES OUT OVR/JUST S OF THE FA WHILE SFC HI PRES BLDS ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC. DID INCLUDE A SLGT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM OVR SRN
AREAS CLOSEST TO THE GREATEST MOISTURE AXIS AND FORCING...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE UPR 80S TO
LWR 90S UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LGT ONSHORE WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA. SFC HI PRES REMAINS
OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WEST.
MODELS AGREE ON TIMING THE FRONT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC OVR THE
WEEKEND...SO DID INTRODUCE A CHANCE (30%) FOR AFTN/EVENG
SHRAS/TSTMS. HI TEMPS FRI AND SAT WILL BE IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S
WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONT TO PREVAIL THRU THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY SSW-SW 10 KT OR LESS WITH SOME OCNL GUSTS
PSBL. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF AN ISOLATED TSTM MOSTLY TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CWA THIS AFTN/EVENING...AND ALONG A
SFC TROUGH OVER ERN VA/MD LATER TONIGHT. SLY WINDS GENERALLY
AROUND 10 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK AS
A WEAK SFC TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST ON TUES...CROSSING THE REGION LATE TUES NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURS AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE
CAROLINAS. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC AS A WEAK
SFC TROUGH LOCATES WEST OF THE WATERS. RESULTANT GRADIENT SLY FLOW
OVER WARM WATERS HAS PUSHED SPEEDS TO AROUND 15 KT IN THE BAY AND
15-20 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. WAVES ALSO AVG 2-3 FT AND SEAS 3-4
FT. SCA CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED THRU THE EARLY MORNING. LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE PATTERN TODAY WITH SLY WINDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT OVER
THE WATERS. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT TODAY AND WAVES 1-2 FT. SLY FLOW
INCREASES AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS AS
FLOW BECOMES MORE SWLY. SEAS FORECAST TO BUILD BACK TO 3-4 FT...BUT
REMAIN SUB-SCA. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
TUES...CROSSING THE WATERS LATE TUES NIGHT INTO WEDS. STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS PRE-FRONTAL LATE
TUES-TUES NIGHT...BUT WAA ALOFT WILL RESULT IN UNFAVORABLE LAPSE
RATES. 10-15 KT FORECAST OVER THE BAY AND 15-20 OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. SEAS REMAIN 3-4 FT. FLOW BECOMES W-NW BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT/LACK OF CAA WILL PREVENT SCA CONDITIONS POST
FRONTAL. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT WEDS...SETTLING
OVER THE WATERS WEDS NIGHT THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. AS A
RESULT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
WINDS AOB 10 KT AND SEAS/WAVES AOB 2 FT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY 9/2:

RIC: 100/1980
ORF:  97/1993
SBY:  97/1980
ECG:  96/1943

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...SAM
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 011817
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
217 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TODAY AND
TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
SETTLES NEAR THE VIRGINIA NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MIDDAY WX ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN
PLACE ALONG AND JUST INLAND OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST, AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED FROM THE DEEP SOUTH AND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. RESULTANT LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN S-SW THROUGH THE
AFTN, ALLOWING FOR A VERY WARM, MODERATELY HUMID AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK. 850MB TEMPERATURES
APPROACH 20C BY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD EASILY SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
MID 90S AWAY FROM THE COASTLINES...WITH UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG
THE COASTS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD GENERALLY AVERAGE 65-70F DURING PEAK
HEATING AND THIS SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICES AOB 100. THERE WILL BE
NO SUBSTANTIAL TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH A LINGERING
SURFACE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A LOW (20-30%) POP FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS, MAINLY E OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

WEAK SFC RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT, WHICH SHOULD
KEEP THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DRY. LOOK FOR ANOTHER MILD AND MUGGY
NIGHT. ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE HOTTEST DAY AS 850MB TEMPERATURES AVERAGE
AROUND 20C. THIS COMBINED WITH DEEP MIXING AND A SW WIND OF
10-15MPH SHOULD HELP BOOST HIGHS INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S INLAND
WITH LOW 90S ALONG THE COASTLINES. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS SHOULD FALL
INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S...AND ONCE AGAIN THIS SHOULD KEEP HEAT
INDICES AOB 100. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS AVERAGE AROUND +1.5-2.0 ST
DEV ABOVE SEASONAL MEANS...AND APPROACH BUT FALL SHORT OF
RECORDS...WHICH ARE LISTED BELOW FOR REFERENCE. TUESDAY SHOULD
GENERALLY BE DRY AS A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION INHIBITS CONVECTION.
THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT COULD
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY
LIMITED.

THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT CHC POP
WILL BE MAINTAINED IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT OVERALL EXPECT
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY SHOULD DROP BACK
INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S. LOWS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MORNINGS SHOULD
AVERAGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR WED NGT/THU...AFOREMENTIONED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WASHES OUT OVR/JUST S OF THE FA WHILE SFC HI PRES BLDS ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC. DID INCLUDE A SLGT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM OVR SRN
AREAS CLOSEST TO THE GREATEST MOISTURE AXIS AND FORCING...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE UPR 80S TO
LWR 90S UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LGT ONSHORE WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA. SFC HI PRES REMAINS
OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WEST.
MODELS AGREE ON TIMING THE FRONT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC OVR THE
WEEKEND...SO DID INTRODUCE A CHANCE (30%) FOR AFTN/EVENG
SHRAS/TSTMS. HI TEMPS FRI AND SAT WILL BE IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S
WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONT TO PREVAIL THRU THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY SSW-SW 10 KT OR LESS WITH SOME OCNL GUSTS
PSBL. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF AN ISOLATED TSTM MOSTLY TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CWA THIS AFTN/EVENING...AND ALONG A
SFC TROUGH OVER ERN VA/MD LATER TONIGHT. SLY WINDS GENERALLY
AROUND 10 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK AS
A WEAK SFC TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST ON TUES...CROSSING THE REGION LATE TUES NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURS AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE
CAROLINAS. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC AS A WEAK
SFC TROUGH LOCATES WEST OF THE WATERS. RESULTANT GRADIENT SLY FLOW
OVER WARM WATERS HAS PUSHED SPEEDS TO AROUND 15 KT IN THE BAY AND
15-20 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. WAVES ALSO AVG 2-3 FT AND SEAS 3-4
FT. SCA CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED THRU THE EARLY MORNING. LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE PATTERN TODAY WITH SLY WINDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT OVER
THE WATERS. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT TODAY AND WAVES 1-2 FT. SLY FLOW
INCREASES AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS AS
FLOW BECOMES MORE SWLY. SEAS FORECAST TO BUILD BACK TO 3-4 FT...BUT
REMAIN SUB-SCA. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
TUES...CROSSING THE WATERS LATE TUES NIGHT INTO WEDS. STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS PRE-FRONTAL LATE
TUES-TUES NIGHT...BUT WAA ALOFT WILL RESULT IN UNFAVORABLE LAPSE
RATES. 10-15 KT FORECAST OVER THE BAY AND 15-20 OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. SEAS REMAIN 3-4 FT. FLOW BECOMES W-NW BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT/LACK OF CAA WILL PREVENT SCA CONDITIONS POST
FRONTAL. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT WEDS...SETTLING
OVER THE WATERS WEDS NIGHT THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. AS A
RESULT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
WINDS AOB 10 KT AND SEAS/WAVES AOB 2 FT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY 9/2:

RIC: 100/1980
ORF:  97/1993
SBY:  97/1980
ECG:  96/1943

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...SAM
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KRNK 011728
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
128 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL STAY BETWEEN A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. DISTURBANCES PASSING BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL COMBINE WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO RESULT IN PERIODIC
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE
NORTH LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN LIFTS NORTH THURSDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM EDT MONDAY...

SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW AND MID CLOUD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. WE REMAIN UNDER UPPER RIDGE BUT SOME FLATTENING ALOFT IS
OCCURRING. THE FLOW WILL BE MAINLY OUT OF WSW THIS AFTERNOON ABOVE
THE LOWER LVLS...WHICH WILL WORK TO INHIBIT STORM FORMATION.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH LOW LVL MOISTURE AND BACKING FLOW IN THE LOW LVLS
OVER THE BLUE RIDGE SHOULD TRIGGER ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA THIS
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS ALSO
EXPECTED OVER THE WRN FRINGES OF OUR CWA...WITH SOME UPSLOPE
CONTRIBUTING TO LIFT.

FORECAST TEMPS ON TRACK...SO NO CHANGES THERE...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S WEST...TO LOWER AND MAYBE EVEN MID 90S OUT EAST.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...


WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT...CUT BACK POPS OVERNIGHT. WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN
SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES AND THUS THE
STORM TRACK...WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA AS A BROAD SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE HOLDS ALONG AND SOUTH OF 40 DEG LATITUDE. A STRONG SHORT
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG TO JUST NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AND HOT...HENCE UNSTABLE...FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS FOCUS ON THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION REMAINING WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY
FRONT...WITH A STRONG DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE EAST...WHICH WILL
PUT A DAMPER ON CONVECTION ACROSS THE NEW RIVER VALLEY AND THE
PIEDMONT. THIS PATTERN IS CONSISTENT WITH TIMING AS WELL...WITH
THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION ARRIVING IN THE 18Z-00Z TIME
FRAME...REACHING AREAS EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT AFTER THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME INSOLATION. NONETHELESS...SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD
LINGER ACROSS THE PIEDMONT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

FOR WED...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED JUST SOUTH OF THE
CWA...LIKELY STALLING FROM MIDDLE/EASTERN TN EASTWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL NC. WITH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE...LITTLE
SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT TO PUSH ANY FURTHER SOUTH. MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN CLOSE TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST...WHICH BY AFTERNOON WILL
BEGIN TO CREEP BACK TO THE NORTHEAST INTO SW VA/NW NC. THUS...HAVE
INTRODUCED CHC POPS IN THESE AREAS...BUT AREAS FURTHER NORTH/EAST
SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR WED. BY THU...THE FRONT RETURNS QUICKLY
BACK TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER RIDGE
AMPLIFYING FURTHER ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S...592 DM INTO TN BY
THU...591 OVER VA BY FRIDAY. THIS LEAVES THE REGION IN A VERY
TYPICAL MID-SUMMER LIKE AIR MASS...NAMELY UNSEASONABLY
WARM...HUMID...WITH LIMITED DYNAMICS...BUT AMPLE THERMODYNAMICS
FOR POPUP AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN
CONJUNCTION WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS.
AGAIN...THE HIGHEST POPS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE CWA.

TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND AVERAGE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL...BOTH LOWS AND HIGHS. AFTER MANY BELOW NORMAL
DAYS THIS PAST SUMMER AND NOW THAT IT IS SEPTEMBER AND NORMALLY
STARTING TO GET COOLER...WE ARE INSTEAD LOOKING NOW AT AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S WEST TO 90S EAST AND LOWS IN THE 60S AND 70S. NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY NOW SHOULD BE IN THE 70S WEST AND 80S EAST WITH
LOWS IN THE 50S WEST AND 60S EAST...SO WE WILL BE SEEING READINGS
A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM MONDAY...

THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF UPPER SHORT WAVES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION FRI-SAT. IN RESPONSE...THE CENTER OF THE STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BACK OFF TO THE WEST INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL
STATES...ALBEIT BRIEFLY...ONLY TO SURGE BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS CHANGE WILL ALLOW A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA BY SAT...BRINGING OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. AGAIN THIS BOUNDARY WILL
STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION...RETURNING NORTH BY SUN OR MON.
THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION HAS MANY SIMILARITIES TO THE TUE-WED SET UP
EARLIER IN THE WEEK. ANY COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND
WILL BE MODEST AS 850 TEMPS HOVER IN THE +18C RANGE...EVEN BEHIND
THE FRONT. WHILE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR WITH THE FRONT FRI-SAT...EVEN THEREAFTER THE AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE FOR SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION...BUT NOTHING WELL ORGANIZED WITH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE
REMAINING JUST TO THE SOUTH...AMPLIFYING BACK INTO THE REGION BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUS...OVERALL EXPECT CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND UNSEASONABLY HIGH HUMIDITY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT MONDAY...

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE GOING TO GUST AT TIMES TO 15-20KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE WEAKENING AT DUSK. OVERNIGHT VSBYS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE A PROBLEM THOUGH BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT
LYH/DAN SUGGEST MVFR FOG...AND WITH LESS CLOUDS ADDED THIS IN
TOWARD DAWN TUESDAY. MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST-SW
LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MOUNTAINS. EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY WITH SIMILAR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. FRONT SETTLES CLOSER TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHEN BETTER COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA IS
EXPECTED...AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTH THURSDAY WHERE THE BOUNDARY
STALLS. HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND SOUTHWARD
POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY AT THIS POINT. THUS APPEARS MAINLY VFR
ON TUESDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY IN MORE
ORGANIZED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION...AND MVFR/IFR UNDER
EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE VALLEYS AND WHERE EARLIER HEAVY RAIN
OCCURRED. FRONT WASHES OUT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY WITH
MORE DIURNAL NATURE SHOWERS AND STORMS...OTRW VFR.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...WILL
BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A PART HAS BEEN BACK-ORDERED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK/WP
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...RAB/WP
EQUIPMENT...RAB



000
FXUS61 KRNK 011728
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
128 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL STAY BETWEEN A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. DISTURBANCES PASSING BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL COMBINE WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO RESULT IN PERIODIC
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE
NORTH LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN LIFTS NORTH THURSDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM EDT MONDAY...

SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW AND MID CLOUD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. WE REMAIN UNDER UPPER RIDGE BUT SOME FLATTENING ALOFT IS
OCCURRING. THE FLOW WILL BE MAINLY OUT OF WSW THIS AFTERNOON ABOVE
THE LOWER LVLS...WHICH WILL WORK TO INHIBIT STORM FORMATION.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH LOW LVL MOISTURE AND BACKING FLOW IN THE LOW LVLS
OVER THE BLUE RIDGE SHOULD TRIGGER ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA THIS
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS ALSO
EXPECTED OVER THE WRN FRINGES OF OUR CWA...WITH SOME UPSLOPE
CONTRIBUTING TO LIFT.

FORECAST TEMPS ON TRACK...SO NO CHANGES THERE...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S WEST...TO LOWER AND MAYBE EVEN MID 90S OUT EAST.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...


WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT...CUT BACK POPS OVERNIGHT. WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN
SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES AND THUS THE
STORM TRACK...WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA AS A BROAD SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE HOLDS ALONG AND SOUTH OF 40 DEG LATITUDE. A STRONG SHORT
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG TO JUST NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AND HOT...HENCE UNSTABLE...FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS FOCUS ON THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION REMAINING WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY
FRONT...WITH A STRONG DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE EAST...WHICH WILL
PUT A DAMPER ON CONVECTION ACROSS THE NEW RIVER VALLEY AND THE
PIEDMONT. THIS PATTERN IS CONSISTENT WITH TIMING AS WELL...WITH
THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION ARRIVING IN THE 18Z-00Z TIME
FRAME...REACHING AREAS EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT AFTER THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME INSOLATION. NONETHELESS...SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD
LINGER ACROSS THE PIEDMONT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

FOR WED...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED JUST SOUTH OF THE
CWA...LIKELY STALLING FROM MIDDLE/EASTERN TN EASTWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL NC. WITH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE...LITTLE
SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT TO PUSH ANY FURTHER SOUTH. MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN CLOSE TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST...WHICH BY AFTERNOON WILL
BEGIN TO CREEP BACK TO THE NORTHEAST INTO SW VA/NW NC. THUS...HAVE
INTRODUCED CHC POPS IN THESE AREAS...BUT AREAS FURTHER NORTH/EAST
SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR WED. BY THU...THE FRONT RETURNS QUICKLY
BACK TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER RIDGE
AMPLIFYING FURTHER ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S...592 DM INTO TN BY
THU...591 OVER VA BY FRIDAY. THIS LEAVES THE REGION IN A VERY
TYPICAL MID-SUMMER LIKE AIR MASS...NAMELY UNSEASONABLY
WARM...HUMID...WITH LIMITED DYNAMICS...BUT AMPLE THERMODYNAMICS
FOR POPUP AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN
CONJUNCTION WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS.
AGAIN...THE HIGHEST POPS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE CWA.

TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND AVERAGE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL...BOTH LOWS AND HIGHS. AFTER MANY BELOW NORMAL
DAYS THIS PAST SUMMER AND NOW THAT IT IS SEPTEMBER AND NORMALLY
STARTING TO GET COOLER...WE ARE INSTEAD LOOKING NOW AT AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S WEST TO 90S EAST AND LOWS IN THE 60S AND 70S. NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY NOW SHOULD BE IN THE 70S WEST AND 80S EAST WITH
LOWS IN THE 50S WEST AND 60S EAST...SO WE WILL BE SEEING READINGS
A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM MONDAY...

THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF UPPER SHORT WAVES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION FRI-SAT. IN RESPONSE...THE CENTER OF THE STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BACK OFF TO THE WEST INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL
STATES...ALBEIT BRIEFLY...ONLY TO SURGE BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS CHANGE WILL ALLOW A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA BY SAT...BRINGING OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. AGAIN THIS BOUNDARY WILL
STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION...RETURNING NORTH BY SUN OR MON.
THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION HAS MANY SIMILARITIES TO THE TUE-WED SET UP
EARLIER IN THE WEEK. ANY COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND
WILL BE MODEST AS 850 TEMPS HOVER IN THE +18C RANGE...EVEN BEHIND
THE FRONT. WHILE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR WITH THE FRONT FRI-SAT...EVEN THEREAFTER THE AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE FOR SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION...BUT NOTHING WELL ORGANIZED WITH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE
REMAINING JUST TO THE SOUTH...AMPLIFYING BACK INTO THE REGION BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUS...OVERALL EXPECT CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND UNSEASONABLY HIGH HUMIDITY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT MONDAY...

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE GOING TO GUST AT TIMES TO 15-20KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE WEAKENING AT DUSK. OVERNIGHT VSBYS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE A PROBLEM THOUGH BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT
LYH/DAN SUGGEST MVFR FOG...AND WITH LESS CLOUDS ADDED THIS IN
TOWARD DAWN TUESDAY. MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST-SW
LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MOUNTAINS. EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY WITH SIMILAR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. FRONT SETTLES CLOSER TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHEN BETTER COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA IS
EXPECTED...AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTH THURSDAY WHERE THE BOUNDARY
STALLS. HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND SOUTHWARD
POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY AT THIS POINT. THUS APPEARS MAINLY VFR
ON TUESDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY IN MORE
ORGANIZED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION...AND MVFR/IFR UNDER
EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE VALLEYS AND WHERE EARLIER HEAVY RAIN
OCCURRED. FRONT WASHES OUT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY WITH
MORE DIURNAL NATURE SHOWERS AND STORMS...OTRW VFR.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...WILL
BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A PART HAS BEEN BACK-ORDERED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK/WP
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...RAB/WP
EQUIPMENT...RAB



000
FXUS61 KRNK 011728
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
128 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL STAY BETWEEN A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. DISTURBANCES PASSING BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL COMBINE WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO RESULT IN PERIODIC
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE
NORTH LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN LIFTS NORTH THURSDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM EDT MONDAY...

SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW AND MID CLOUD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. WE REMAIN UNDER UPPER RIDGE BUT SOME FLATTENING ALOFT IS
OCCURRING. THE FLOW WILL BE MAINLY OUT OF WSW THIS AFTERNOON ABOVE
THE LOWER LVLS...WHICH WILL WORK TO INHIBIT STORM FORMATION.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH LOW LVL MOISTURE AND BACKING FLOW IN THE LOW LVLS
OVER THE BLUE RIDGE SHOULD TRIGGER ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA THIS
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS ALSO
EXPECTED OVER THE WRN FRINGES OF OUR CWA...WITH SOME UPSLOPE
CONTRIBUTING TO LIFT.

FORECAST TEMPS ON TRACK...SO NO CHANGES THERE...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S WEST...TO LOWER AND MAYBE EVEN MID 90S OUT EAST.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...


WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT...CUT BACK POPS OVERNIGHT. WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN
SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES AND THUS THE
STORM TRACK...WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA AS A BROAD SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE HOLDS ALONG AND SOUTH OF 40 DEG LATITUDE. A STRONG SHORT
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG TO JUST NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AND HOT...HENCE UNSTABLE...FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS FOCUS ON THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION REMAINING WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY
FRONT...WITH A STRONG DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE EAST...WHICH WILL
PUT A DAMPER ON CONVECTION ACROSS THE NEW RIVER VALLEY AND THE
PIEDMONT. THIS PATTERN IS CONSISTENT WITH TIMING AS WELL...WITH
THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION ARRIVING IN THE 18Z-00Z TIME
FRAME...REACHING AREAS EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT AFTER THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME INSOLATION. NONETHELESS...SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD
LINGER ACROSS THE PIEDMONT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

FOR WED...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED JUST SOUTH OF THE
CWA...LIKELY STALLING FROM MIDDLE/EASTERN TN EASTWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL NC. WITH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE...LITTLE
SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT TO PUSH ANY FURTHER SOUTH. MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN CLOSE TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST...WHICH BY AFTERNOON WILL
BEGIN TO CREEP BACK TO THE NORTHEAST INTO SW VA/NW NC. THUS...HAVE
INTRODUCED CHC POPS IN THESE AREAS...BUT AREAS FURTHER NORTH/EAST
SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR WED. BY THU...THE FRONT RETURNS QUICKLY
BACK TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER RIDGE
AMPLIFYING FURTHER ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S...592 DM INTO TN BY
THU...591 OVER VA BY FRIDAY. THIS LEAVES THE REGION IN A VERY
TYPICAL MID-SUMMER LIKE AIR MASS...NAMELY UNSEASONABLY
WARM...HUMID...WITH LIMITED DYNAMICS...BUT AMPLE THERMODYNAMICS
FOR POPUP AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN
CONJUNCTION WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS.
AGAIN...THE HIGHEST POPS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE CWA.

TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND AVERAGE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL...BOTH LOWS AND HIGHS. AFTER MANY BELOW NORMAL
DAYS THIS PAST SUMMER AND NOW THAT IT IS SEPTEMBER AND NORMALLY
STARTING TO GET COOLER...WE ARE INSTEAD LOOKING NOW AT AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S WEST TO 90S EAST AND LOWS IN THE 60S AND 70S. NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY NOW SHOULD BE IN THE 70S WEST AND 80S EAST WITH
LOWS IN THE 50S WEST AND 60S EAST...SO WE WILL BE SEEING READINGS
A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM MONDAY...

THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF UPPER SHORT WAVES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION FRI-SAT. IN RESPONSE...THE CENTER OF THE STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BACK OFF TO THE WEST INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL
STATES...ALBEIT BRIEFLY...ONLY TO SURGE BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS CHANGE WILL ALLOW A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA BY SAT...BRINGING OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. AGAIN THIS BOUNDARY WILL
STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION...RETURNING NORTH BY SUN OR MON.
THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION HAS MANY SIMILARITIES TO THE TUE-WED SET UP
EARLIER IN THE WEEK. ANY COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND
WILL BE MODEST AS 850 TEMPS HOVER IN THE +18C RANGE...EVEN BEHIND
THE FRONT. WHILE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR WITH THE FRONT FRI-SAT...EVEN THEREAFTER THE AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE FOR SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION...BUT NOTHING WELL ORGANIZED WITH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE
REMAINING JUST TO THE SOUTH...AMPLIFYING BACK INTO THE REGION BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUS...OVERALL EXPECT CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND UNSEASONABLY HIGH HUMIDITY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT MONDAY...

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE GOING TO GUST AT TIMES TO 15-20KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE WEAKENING AT DUSK. OVERNIGHT VSBYS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE A PROBLEM THOUGH BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT
LYH/DAN SUGGEST MVFR FOG...AND WITH LESS CLOUDS ADDED THIS IN
TOWARD DAWN TUESDAY. MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST-SW
LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MOUNTAINS. EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY WITH SIMILAR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. FRONT SETTLES CLOSER TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHEN BETTER COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA IS
EXPECTED...AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTH THURSDAY WHERE THE BOUNDARY
STALLS. HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND SOUTHWARD
POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY AT THIS POINT. THUS APPEARS MAINLY VFR
ON TUESDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY IN MORE
ORGANIZED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION...AND MVFR/IFR UNDER
EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE VALLEYS AND WHERE EARLIER HEAVY RAIN
OCCURRED. FRONT WASHES OUT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY WITH
MORE DIURNAL NATURE SHOWERS AND STORMS...OTRW VFR.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...WILL
BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A PART HAS BEEN BACK-ORDERED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK/WP
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...RAB/WP
EQUIPMENT...RAB



000
FXUS61 KRNK 011728
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
128 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL STAY BETWEEN A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. DISTURBANCES PASSING BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL COMBINE WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO RESULT IN PERIODIC
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE
NORTH LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN LIFTS NORTH THURSDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM EDT MONDAY...

SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW AND MID CLOUD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. WE REMAIN UNDER UPPER RIDGE BUT SOME FLATTENING ALOFT IS
OCCURRING. THE FLOW WILL BE MAINLY OUT OF WSW THIS AFTERNOON ABOVE
THE LOWER LVLS...WHICH WILL WORK TO INHIBIT STORM FORMATION.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH LOW LVL MOISTURE AND BACKING FLOW IN THE LOW LVLS
OVER THE BLUE RIDGE SHOULD TRIGGER ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA THIS
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS ALSO
EXPECTED OVER THE WRN FRINGES OF OUR CWA...WITH SOME UPSLOPE
CONTRIBUTING TO LIFT.

FORECAST TEMPS ON TRACK...SO NO CHANGES THERE...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S WEST...TO LOWER AND MAYBE EVEN MID 90S OUT EAST.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...


WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT...CUT BACK POPS OVERNIGHT. WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN
SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES AND THUS THE
STORM TRACK...WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA AS A BROAD SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE HOLDS ALONG AND SOUTH OF 40 DEG LATITUDE. A STRONG SHORT
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG TO JUST NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AND HOT...HENCE UNSTABLE...FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS FOCUS ON THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION REMAINING WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY
FRONT...WITH A STRONG DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE EAST...WHICH WILL
PUT A DAMPER ON CONVECTION ACROSS THE NEW RIVER VALLEY AND THE
PIEDMONT. THIS PATTERN IS CONSISTENT WITH TIMING AS WELL...WITH
THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION ARRIVING IN THE 18Z-00Z TIME
FRAME...REACHING AREAS EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT AFTER THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME INSOLATION. NONETHELESS...SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD
LINGER ACROSS THE PIEDMONT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

FOR WED...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED JUST SOUTH OF THE
CWA...LIKELY STALLING FROM MIDDLE/EASTERN TN EASTWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL NC. WITH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE...LITTLE
SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT TO PUSH ANY FURTHER SOUTH. MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN CLOSE TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST...WHICH BY AFTERNOON WILL
BEGIN TO CREEP BACK TO THE NORTHEAST INTO SW VA/NW NC. THUS...HAVE
INTRODUCED CHC POPS IN THESE AREAS...BUT AREAS FURTHER NORTH/EAST
SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR WED. BY THU...THE FRONT RETURNS QUICKLY
BACK TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER RIDGE
AMPLIFYING FURTHER ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S...592 DM INTO TN BY
THU...591 OVER VA BY FRIDAY. THIS LEAVES THE REGION IN A VERY
TYPICAL MID-SUMMER LIKE AIR MASS...NAMELY UNSEASONABLY
WARM...HUMID...WITH LIMITED DYNAMICS...BUT AMPLE THERMODYNAMICS
FOR POPUP AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN
CONJUNCTION WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS.
AGAIN...THE HIGHEST POPS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE CWA.

TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND AVERAGE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL...BOTH LOWS AND HIGHS. AFTER MANY BELOW NORMAL
DAYS THIS PAST SUMMER AND NOW THAT IT IS SEPTEMBER AND NORMALLY
STARTING TO GET COOLER...WE ARE INSTEAD LOOKING NOW AT AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S WEST TO 90S EAST AND LOWS IN THE 60S AND 70S. NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY NOW SHOULD BE IN THE 70S WEST AND 80S EAST WITH
LOWS IN THE 50S WEST AND 60S EAST...SO WE WILL BE SEEING READINGS
A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM MONDAY...

THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF UPPER SHORT WAVES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION FRI-SAT. IN RESPONSE...THE CENTER OF THE STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BACK OFF TO THE WEST INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL
STATES...ALBEIT BRIEFLY...ONLY TO SURGE BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS CHANGE WILL ALLOW A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA BY SAT...BRINGING OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. AGAIN THIS BOUNDARY WILL
STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION...RETURNING NORTH BY SUN OR MON.
THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION HAS MANY SIMILARITIES TO THE TUE-WED SET UP
EARLIER IN THE WEEK. ANY COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND
WILL BE MODEST AS 850 TEMPS HOVER IN THE +18C RANGE...EVEN BEHIND
THE FRONT. WHILE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR WITH THE FRONT FRI-SAT...EVEN THEREAFTER THE AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE FOR SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION...BUT NOTHING WELL ORGANIZED WITH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE
REMAINING JUST TO THE SOUTH...AMPLIFYING BACK INTO THE REGION BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUS...OVERALL EXPECT CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND UNSEASONABLY HIGH HUMIDITY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT MONDAY...

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE GOING TO GUST AT TIMES TO 15-20KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE WEAKENING AT DUSK. OVERNIGHT VSBYS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE A PROBLEM THOUGH BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT
LYH/DAN SUGGEST MVFR FOG...AND WITH LESS CLOUDS ADDED THIS IN
TOWARD DAWN TUESDAY. MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST-SW
LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MOUNTAINS. EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY WITH SIMILAR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. FRONT SETTLES CLOSER TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHEN BETTER COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA IS
EXPECTED...AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTH THURSDAY WHERE THE BOUNDARY
STALLS. HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND SOUTHWARD
POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY AT THIS POINT. THUS APPEARS MAINLY VFR
ON TUESDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY IN MORE
ORGANIZED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION...AND MVFR/IFR UNDER
EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE VALLEYS AND WHERE EARLIER HEAVY RAIN
OCCURRED. FRONT WASHES OUT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY WITH
MORE DIURNAL NATURE SHOWERS AND STORMS...OTRW VFR.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...WILL
BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A PART HAS BEEN BACK-ORDERED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK/WP
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...RAB/WP
EQUIPMENT...RAB



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 011629
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1229 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TODAY AND
TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
SETTLES NEAR THE VIRGINIA NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MIDDAY WX ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN
PLACE ALONG AND JUST INLAND OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST, AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED FROM THE DEEP SOUTH AND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. RESULTANT LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN S-SW THROUGH THE
AFTN, ALLOWING FOR A VERY WARM, MODERATELY HUMID AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK. 850MB TEMPERATURES
APPROACH 20C BY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD EASILY SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
MID 90S AWAY FROM THE COASTLINES...WITH UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG
THE COASTS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD GENERALLY AVERAGE 65-70F DURING PEAK
HEATING AND THIS SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICES AOB 100. THERE WILL BE
NO SUBSTANTIAL TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH A LINGERING
SURFACE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A LOW (20-30%) POP FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS, MAINLY E OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

WEAK SFC RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT, WHICH SHOULD
KEEP THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DRY. LOOK FOR ANOTHER MILD AND MUGGY
NIGHT. ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE HOTTEST DAY AS 850MB TEMPERATURES AVERAGE
AROUND 20C. THIS COMBINED WITH DEEP MIXING AND A SW WIND OF
10-15MPH SHOULD HELP BOOST HIGHS INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S INLAND
WITH LOW 90S ALONG THE COASTLINES. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS SHOULD FALL
INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S...AND ONCE AGAIN THIS SHOULD KEEP HEAT
INDICES AOB 100. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS AVERAGE AROUND +1.5-2.0 ST
DEV ABOVE SEASONAL MEANS...AND APPROACH BUT FALL SHORT OF
RECORDS...WHICH ARE LISTED BELOW FOR REFERENCE. TUESDAY SHOULD
GENERALLY BE DRY AS A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION INHIBITS CONVECTION.
THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT COULD
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY
LIMITED.

THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT CHC POP
WILL BE MAINTAINED IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT OVERALL EXPECT
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY SHOULD DROP BACK
INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S. LOWS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MORNINGS SHOULD
AVERAGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR WED NGT/THU...AFOREMENTIONED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WASHES OUT OVR/JUST S OF THE FA WHILE SFC HI PRES BLDS ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC. DID INCLUDE A SLGT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM OVR SRN
AREAS CLOSEST TO THE GREATEST MOISTURE AXIS AND FORCING...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE UPR 80S TO
LWR 90S UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LGT ONSHORE WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA. SFC HI PRES REMAINS
OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WEST.
MODELS AGREE ON TIMING THE FRONT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC OVR THE
WEEKEND...SO DID INTRODUCE A CHANCE (30%) FOR AFTN/EVENG
SHRAS/TSTMS. HI TEMPS FRI AND SAT WILL BE IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S
WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS (DECKS 4-6K FT AGL) GENERALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF A LINE FROM FARMVILLE TO RICHMOND AND SALISBURY.
ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY BKN HIGH CLOUDS AOA 25K FT AGL. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING NORTH OF A RICHMOND TO SALISBURY
LINE...POSSIBLY IMPACTING KSBY THRU EARLY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH...SO WILL ADJUST TAFS AS NEEDED. OTHERWISE...MIXING WILL
PRECLUDE FOG TONIGHT AS SOUTH WINDS AVG 5-7 KT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
LOCALES CLOSE TO THE ALBEMARLE SOUND FOR SOME STRATUS...WITH KECG
FORECAST TO DROP TO IFR CIGS BY 8-9Z.

FOR TODAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN AS VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG A
SFC TROUGH OVER ERN VA. SLY WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KT WITH A FEW
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK AS
A WEAK SFC TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST ON TUES...CROSSING THE REGION LATE TUES NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURS AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE
CAROLINAS. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC AS A WEAK
SFC TROUGH LOCATES WEST OF THE WATERS. RESULTANT GRADIENT SLY FLOW
OVER WARM WATERS HAS PUSHED SPEEDS TO AROUND 15 KT IN THE BAY AND
15-20 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. WAVES ALSO AVG 2-3 FT AND SEAS 3-4
FT. SCA CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED THRU THE EARLY MORNING. LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE PATTERN TODAY WITH SLY WINDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT OVER
THE WATERS. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT TODAY AND WAVES 1-2 FT. SLY FLOW
INCREASES AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS AS
FLOW BECOMES MORE SWLY. SEAS FORECAST TO BUILD BACK TO 3-4 FT...BUT
REMAIN SUB-SCA. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
TUES...CROSSING THE WATERS LATE TUES NIGHT INTO WEDS. STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS PRE-FRONTAL LATE
TUES-TUES NIGHT...BUT WAA ALOFT WILL RESULT IN UNFAVORABLE LAPSE
RATES. 10-15 KT FORECAST OVER THE BAY AND 15-20 OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. SEAS REMAIN 3-4 FT. FLOW BECOMES W-NW BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT/LACK OF CAA WILL PREVENT SCA CONDITIONS POST
FRONTAL. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT WEDS...SETTLING
OVER THE WATERS WEDS NIGHT THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. AS A
RESULT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
WINDS AOB 10 KT AND SEAS/WAVES AOB 2 FT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY 9/2:

RIC: 100/1980
ORF:  97/1993
SBY:  97/1980
ECG:  96/1943

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...SAM
MARINE...SAM
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 011629
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1229 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TODAY AND
TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
SETTLES NEAR THE VIRGINIA NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MIDDAY WX ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN
PLACE ALONG AND JUST INLAND OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST, AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED FROM THE DEEP SOUTH AND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. RESULTANT LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN S-SW THROUGH THE
AFTN, ALLOWING FOR A VERY WARM, MODERATELY HUMID AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK. 850MB TEMPERATURES
APPROACH 20C BY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD EASILY SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
MID 90S AWAY FROM THE COASTLINES...WITH UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG
THE COASTS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD GENERALLY AVERAGE 65-70F DURING PEAK
HEATING AND THIS SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICES AOB 100. THERE WILL BE
NO SUBSTANTIAL TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH A LINGERING
SURFACE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A LOW (20-30%) POP FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS, MAINLY E OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

WEAK SFC RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT, WHICH SHOULD
KEEP THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DRY. LOOK FOR ANOTHER MILD AND MUGGY
NIGHT. ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE HOTTEST DAY AS 850MB TEMPERATURES AVERAGE
AROUND 20C. THIS COMBINED WITH DEEP MIXING AND A SW WIND OF
10-15MPH SHOULD HELP BOOST HIGHS INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S INLAND
WITH LOW 90S ALONG THE COASTLINES. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS SHOULD FALL
INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S...AND ONCE AGAIN THIS SHOULD KEEP HEAT
INDICES AOB 100. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS AVERAGE AROUND +1.5-2.0 ST
DEV ABOVE SEASONAL MEANS...AND APPROACH BUT FALL SHORT OF
RECORDS...WHICH ARE LISTED BELOW FOR REFERENCE. TUESDAY SHOULD
GENERALLY BE DRY AS A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION INHIBITS CONVECTION.
THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT COULD
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY
LIMITED.

THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT CHC POP
WILL BE MAINTAINED IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT OVERALL EXPECT
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY SHOULD DROP BACK
INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S. LOWS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MORNINGS SHOULD
AVERAGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR WED NGT/THU...AFOREMENTIONED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WASHES OUT OVR/JUST S OF THE FA WHILE SFC HI PRES BLDS ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC. DID INCLUDE A SLGT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM OVR SRN
AREAS CLOSEST TO THE GREATEST MOISTURE AXIS AND FORCING...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE UPR 80S TO
LWR 90S UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LGT ONSHORE WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA. SFC HI PRES REMAINS
OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WEST.
MODELS AGREE ON TIMING THE FRONT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC OVR THE
WEEKEND...SO DID INTRODUCE A CHANCE (30%) FOR AFTN/EVENG
SHRAS/TSTMS. HI TEMPS FRI AND SAT WILL BE IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S
WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS (DECKS 4-6K FT AGL) GENERALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF A LINE FROM FARMVILLE TO RICHMOND AND SALISBURY.
ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY BKN HIGH CLOUDS AOA 25K FT AGL. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING NORTH OF A RICHMOND TO SALISBURY
LINE...POSSIBLY IMPACTING KSBY THRU EARLY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH...SO WILL ADJUST TAFS AS NEEDED. OTHERWISE...MIXING WILL
PRECLUDE FOG TONIGHT AS SOUTH WINDS AVG 5-7 KT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
LOCALES CLOSE TO THE ALBEMARLE SOUND FOR SOME STRATUS...WITH KECG
FORECAST TO DROP TO IFR CIGS BY 8-9Z.

FOR TODAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN AS VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG A
SFC TROUGH OVER ERN VA. SLY WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KT WITH A FEW
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK AS
A WEAK SFC TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST ON TUES...CROSSING THE REGION LATE TUES NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURS AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE
CAROLINAS. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC AS A WEAK
SFC TROUGH LOCATES WEST OF THE WATERS. RESULTANT GRADIENT SLY FLOW
OVER WARM WATERS HAS PUSHED SPEEDS TO AROUND 15 KT IN THE BAY AND
15-20 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. WAVES ALSO AVG 2-3 FT AND SEAS 3-4
FT. SCA CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED THRU THE EARLY MORNING. LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE PATTERN TODAY WITH SLY WINDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT OVER
THE WATERS. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT TODAY AND WAVES 1-2 FT. SLY FLOW
INCREASES AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS AS
FLOW BECOMES MORE SWLY. SEAS FORECAST TO BUILD BACK TO 3-4 FT...BUT
REMAIN SUB-SCA. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
TUES...CROSSING THE WATERS LATE TUES NIGHT INTO WEDS. STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS PRE-FRONTAL LATE
TUES-TUES NIGHT...BUT WAA ALOFT WILL RESULT IN UNFAVORABLE LAPSE
RATES. 10-15 KT FORECAST OVER THE BAY AND 15-20 OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. SEAS REMAIN 3-4 FT. FLOW BECOMES W-NW BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT/LACK OF CAA WILL PREVENT SCA CONDITIONS POST
FRONTAL. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT WEDS...SETTLING
OVER THE WATERS WEDS NIGHT THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. AS A
RESULT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
WINDS AOB 10 KT AND SEAS/WAVES AOB 2 FT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY 9/2:

RIC: 100/1980
ORF:  97/1993
SBY:  97/1980
ECG:  96/1943

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...SAM
MARINE...SAM
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KRNK 011504
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1104 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL STAY BETWEEN A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. DISTURBANCES PASSING BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL COMBINE WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO RESULT IN PERIODIC
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE
NORTH LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN LIFTS NORTH THURSDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM EDT MONDAY...

SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW AND MID CLOUD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. WE REMAIN UNDER UPPER RIDGE BUT SOME FLATTENING ALOFT IS
OCCURRING. THE FLOW WILL BE MAINLY OUT OF WSW THIS AFTERNOON ABOVE
THE LOWER LVLS...WHICH WILL WORK TO INHIBIT STORM FORMATION.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH LOW LVL MOISTURE AND BACKING FLOW IN THE LOW LVLS
OVER THE BLUE RIDGE SHOULD TRIGGER ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA THIS
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS ALSO
EXPECTED OVER THE WRN FRINGES OF OUR CWA...WITH SOME UPSLOPE
CONTRIBUTING TO LIFT.

FORECAST TEMPS ON TRACK...SO NO CHANGES THERE...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S WEST...TO LOWER AND MAYBE EVEN MID 90S OUT EAST.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...


WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT...CUT BACK POPS OVERNIGHT. WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN
SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES AND THUS THE
STORM TRACK...WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA AS A BROAD SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE HOLDS ALONG AND SOUTH OF 40 DEG LATITUDE. A STRONG SHORT
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG TO JUST NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AND HOT...HENCE UNSTABLE...FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS FOCUS ON THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION REMAINING WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY
FRONT...WITH A STRONG DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE EAST...WHICH WILL
PUT A DAMPER ON CONVECTION ACROSS THE NEW RIVER VALLEY AND THE
PIEDMONT. THIS PATTERN IS CONSISTENT WITH TIMING AS WELL...WITH
THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION ARRIVING IN THE 18Z-00Z TIME
FRAME...REACHING AREAS EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT AFTER THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME INSOLATION. NONETHELESS...SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD
LINGER ACROSS THE PIEDMONT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

FOR WED...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED JUST SOUTH OF THE
CWA...LIKELY STALLING FROM MIDDLE/EASTERN TN EASTWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL NC. WITH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE...LITTLE
SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT TO PUSH ANY FURTHER SOUTH. MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN CLOSE TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST...WHICH BY AFTERNOON WILL
BEGIN TO CREEP BACK TO THE NORTHEAST INTO SW VA/NW NC. THUS...HAVE
INTRODUCED CHC POPS IN THESE AREAS...BUT AREAS FURTHER NORTH/EAST
SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR WED. BY THU...THE FRONT RETURNS QUICKLY
BACK TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER RIDGE
AMPLIFYING FURTHER ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S...592 DM INTO TN BY
THU...591 OVER VA BY FRIDAY. THIS LEAVES THE REGION IN A VERY
TYPICAL MID-SUMMER LIKE AIR MASS...NAMELY UNSEASONABLY
WARM...HUMID...WITH LIMITED DYNAMICS...BUT AMPLE THERMODYNAMICS
FOR POPUP AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN
CONJUNCTION WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS.
AGAIN...THE HIGHEST POPS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE CWA.

TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND AVERAGE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL...BOTH LOWS AND HIGHS. AFTER MANY BELOW NORMAL
DAYS THIS PAST SUMMER AND NOW THAT IT IS SEPTEMBER AND NORMALLY
STARTING TO GET COOLER...WE ARE INSTEAD LOOKING NOW AT AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S WEST TO 90S EAST AND LOWS IN THE 60S AND 70S. NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY NOW SHOULD BE IN THE 70S WEST AND 80S EAST WITH
LOWS IN THE 50S WEST AND 60S EAST...SO WE WILL BE SEEING READINGS
A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM MONDAY...

THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF UPPER SHORT WAVES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION FRI-SAT. IN RESPONSE...THE CENTER OF THE STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BACK OFF TO THE WEST INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL
STATES...ALBEIT BRIEFLY...ONLY TO SURGE BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS CHANGE WILL ALLOW A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA BY SAT...BRINGING OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. AGAIN THIS BOUNDARY WILL
STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION...RETURNING NORTH BY SUN OR MON.
THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION HAS MANY SIMILARITIES TO THE TUE-WED SET UP
EARLIER IN THE WEEK. ANY COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND
WILL BE MODEST AS 850 TEMPS HOVER IN THE +18C RANGE...EVEN BEHIND
THE FRONT. WHILE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR WITH THE FRONT FRI-SAT...EVEN THEREAFTER THE AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE FOR SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION...BUT NOTHING WELL ORGANIZED WITH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE
REMAINING JUST TO THE SOUTH...AMPLIFYING BACK INTO THE REGION BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUS...OVERALL EXPECT CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND UNSEASONABLY HIGH HUMIDITY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 735 AM EDT MONDAY...

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. AN
UPPER TROUGH WAS MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING AND WILL EXIT TO THE
EAST BY AFTERNOON...LEAVING IN ITS WAKE MOSTLY GUSTY DOWNSLOPE
WEST WINDS. EXPECT MORNING -SHRA TO DISSIPATE BY 14Z. WEST OF THE
ALLEGHANY FRONT HOWEVER...UPSLOPE WEST WINDS WILL RESULT IN A
LONGER PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY MVFR CIGS INTO MID-DAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE VFR CIGS EXPECTED AND CLOUDS SCATTERING
OUT TO THE EAST BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
OVERNIGHT...ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH/FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
WITH -SHRA ENCROACHING ON BLF/LWB AFT 08Z. MOSTLY MID CLOUDS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH GENERALLY VFR CIGS. VSBYS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE A PROBLEM THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD...MAINLY BECAUSE OF A
VERY WARM AIR MASS AND EXTENSIVE MID/HIGH CLOUDS THROUGHOUT MUCH
OF THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS...WSW INCREASING TO
7-10KTS WITH LOW END GUSTS AT ROA/BLF/BCB.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VBSYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY WITH SIMILAR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. FRONT SETTLES CLOSER TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHEN BETTER COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA IS
EXPECTED...AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTH THURSDAY WHERE THE BOUNDARY
STALLS. HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND SOUTHWARD
POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY AT THIS POINT. THUS APPEARS MAINLY VFR
ON TUESDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY IN MORE
ORGANIZED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION...AND MVFR/IFR UNDER
EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE VALLEYS AND WHERE EARLIER HEAVY RAIN
OCCURRED. FRONT WASHES OUT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY WITH
MORE DIURNAL NATURE SHOWERS AND STORMS...OTRW VFR.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...WILL
BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A PART HAS BEEN BACK-ORDERED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK/WP
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...KK/RAB
EQUIPMENT...RAB



000
FXUS61 KLWX 011358
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
958 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. A TROUGH WILL
PERSIST OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
12Z KIAD SOUNDING WAS JUICY...PW VALUE OVER 2 INCHES. WATER VAPOR
LOOP INDICATES SOME RELATIVELY DRIER AIR PUNCHING INTO THE
HIGHLANDS LIKELY TO EXPAND EAST TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD EXPLAIN WHY RUC/NAM/GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AT VARIOUS POINTS SHOW THE PW VALUE DECREASING A BIT BY
AFTERNOON. BUT EVEN 1.75" ISN/T BAD FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

MUCH OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY BE DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MORNING...SAVE FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS LOWER SOUTHERN AND
NORTHEAST MD. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO AFFECT THE HIGHLANDS BY
MIDDAY. AM UNCERTAIN ON COVERAGE OF CONVECTION BY THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND MID LEVEL DRYING MAY HELP TO INHIBIT
COVERAGE...BUT ONE WOULD THINK THAT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND PRESENCE OF A SURFACE TROUGH/CONVERGENT
BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS /MAYBE
LOW END SCATTERED/ TO FORM BY MID-AFTERNOON. POPS/WX REFLECT THIS.

GIVEN HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...ANY STORMS THAT FORM MAY PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL ALTHOUGH STORM MOTION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH
TO MOVE CONVECTION AND THUS LIMIT FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL.
INSTABILITY MAY ALSO SUPPORT SOME GUSTY WINDS BUT IF SHEAR REMAINS
RELATIVELY WEAK THIS SHOULD LIMIT DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
WEAK SFC RIDGING CROSSES THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...MAKING FOR AN OVERNIGHT/MOST OF TUESDAY REPRIEVE FROM
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH IN PLACE...EXPECT TUESDAY TO
HAVE THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURE DAY SINCE JULY. MAX TEMPS LOW TO MID
90S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES MAY BE LOWER OUT WEST
WHERE ACTIVITY WILL FIRE FIRST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BEHIND A SHARP AND POTENT UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LARGE ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN ABOVE THE NRN HALF OF THE CONUS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
CURRENT WEEK. THIS UPPER-LEVEL HIGHWAY OF FAST-MOVING FLOW WILL NOT
ONLY TAKE THE TUE TROUGH PASSAGE QUICKLY AWAY FROM THE AREA AND OFF
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND...BUT BRING ANOTHER TOWARD THE AREA JUST A COUPLE
OF DAYS LATER - ALL THE WAY FROM THE NRN ROCKIES. THE UPPER RIDGE
LAID OUT ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CONUS HOWEVER...WILL KEEP THESE
LOW PRES SYSTEM PASSES FROM MAKING A RUN TOO FAR SOUTH. THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE OF THE TUE/EARLY WED SYSTEM AND THE LATE WEEK ONE WILL
LARGELY SKIM THE REGION W/ THE JUST THE RESIDUAL/LEFTOVER EFFECTS OF
THE MORE POTENT SYSTEM FURTHER TO THE NORTH.

EVEN W/ THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUE W/
MORE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY...THE UPPER DYNAMICS BEHIND THE STRENGTH
OF THE FRONT WILL TAKE OFF TO THE NE. THE LEFTOVER BOUNDARY WILL
STALL-OUT TO OUR SOUTH AND ALLOW FOR WEAK HIGH PRES TO BUILD IN
ACROSS THE MID-ATLC STATES WED INTO THU. ONLY A SLIGHT AIRMASS
CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM REACHING THE HIGHER
LEVELS EXPECTED ON TUE - THAT OF L-M90S. INSTEAD...MUCH OF THE AREA
WILL TOP OUT IN THE M80S...W/ U80S DOTTING THE I-95 CORRIDOR AREA
AND EAST. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AND A LIGHT WNW WIND WILL DOWNSLOPE
AND HELP BUMP UP TEMPS A COUPLE MORE DEG.

WITH THE STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK...DAILY
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE DEVELOPING ALONG IT - ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS AND POSSIBLY UP INTO CNTRL VA...BUT LIKELY JUST SHY OF THE
SRN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE
THE FAST-MOVING SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS AND OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK. THE SFC HIGH WILL ROLL OFF
THE COAST AND START UP AN ONSHORE FLOW AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
THIS WILL HELP TO START OUR COOL-DOWN FROM THE ABNORMALLY HOT/HUMID
CONDITIONS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS. PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE W/ THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRI INTO SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z AT THE HUBS.
OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH MIDDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH
JUST A PASSING SHOWER. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS BY 18-19Z...THUS THE VCTS. THIS MAY BE
TOO EARLY...AND AM SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN ON HOW MUCH COVERAGE WILL
BE APPARENT THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. WILL EVALUATE 12Z GUIDANCE AND
LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR/WRF-ARW AND AMEND AS NECESSARY.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH LEADING THUNDERSTORM ENTERING
FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON WED...W/
WINDS SHIFTING TOWARD NWLY AND HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH. THE HIGH WILL KEEP CONDITIONS QUIET INTO FRI...AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BRING MORE PRECIP FROM FRI INTO SAT...SAGGING JUST S OF THE AREA
FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
MAIN CONCERN OVER THE WATERS WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH LOW VIS IN
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS/WIND SHIFTS. THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
POSSIBLE TUESDAY EVENING WITH A COLD FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE TUE EVE. THE FRONT
WILL DRIFT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. THE SFC
HIGH WILL LARGELY KEEP WINDS LIGHT INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK...MOVING OFF THE COAST BY EARLY FRI - AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT. SCA CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THE MED/LONG RANGES OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/BPP
NEAR TERM...BAJ/BPP
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...GMS
AVIATION...BAJ/BPP/GMS
MARINE...BAJ/BPP/GMS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 011358
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
958 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. A TROUGH WILL
PERSIST OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
12Z KIAD SOUNDING WAS JUICY...PW VALUE OVER 2 INCHES. WATER VAPOR
LOOP INDICATES SOME RELATIVELY DRIER AIR PUNCHING INTO THE
HIGHLANDS LIKELY TO EXPAND EAST TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD EXPLAIN WHY RUC/NAM/GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AT VARIOUS POINTS SHOW THE PW VALUE DECREASING A BIT BY
AFTERNOON. BUT EVEN 1.75" ISN/T BAD FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

MUCH OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY BE DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MORNING...SAVE FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS LOWER SOUTHERN AND
NORTHEAST MD. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO AFFECT THE HIGHLANDS BY
MIDDAY. AM UNCERTAIN ON COVERAGE OF CONVECTION BY THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND MID LEVEL DRYING MAY HELP TO INHIBIT
COVERAGE...BUT ONE WOULD THINK THAT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND PRESENCE OF A SURFACE TROUGH/CONVERGENT
BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS /MAYBE
LOW END SCATTERED/ TO FORM BY MID-AFTERNOON. POPS/WX REFLECT THIS.

GIVEN HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...ANY STORMS THAT FORM MAY PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL ALTHOUGH STORM MOTION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH
TO MOVE CONVECTION AND THUS LIMIT FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL.
INSTABILITY MAY ALSO SUPPORT SOME GUSTY WINDS BUT IF SHEAR REMAINS
RELATIVELY WEAK THIS SHOULD LIMIT DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
WEAK SFC RIDGING CROSSES THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...MAKING FOR AN OVERNIGHT/MOST OF TUESDAY REPRIEVE FROM
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH IN PLACE...EXPECT TUESDAY TO
HAVE THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURE DAY SINCE JULY. MAX TEMPS LOW TO MID
90S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES MAY BE LOWER OUT WEST
WHERE ACTIVITY WILL FIRE FIRST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BEHIND A SHARP AND POTENT UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LARGE ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN ABOVE THE NRN HALF OF THE CONUS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
CURRENT WEEK. THIS UPPER-LEVEL HIGHWAY OF FAST-MOVING FLOW WILL NOT
ONLY TAKE THE TUE TROUGH PASSAGE QUICKLY AWAY FROM THE AREA AND OFF
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND...BUT BRING ANOTHER TOWARD THE AREA JUST A COUPLE
OF DAYS LATER - ALL THE WAY FROM THE NRN ROCKIES. THE UPPER RIDGE
LAID OUT ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CONUS HOWEVER...WILL KEEP THESE
LOW PRES SYSTEM PASSES FROM MAKING A RUN TOO FAR SOUTH. THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE OF THE TUE/EARLY WED SYSTEM AND THE LATE WEEK ONE WILL
LARGELY SKIM THE REGION W/ THE JUST THE RESIDUAL/LEFTOVER EFFECTS OF
THE MORE POTENT SYSTEM FURTHER TO THE NORTH.

EVEN W/ THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUE W/
MORE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY...THE UPPER DYNAMICS BEHIND THE STRENGTH
OF THE FRONT WILL TAKE OFF TO THE NE. THE LEFTOVER BOUNDARY WILL
STALL-OUT TO OUR SOUTH AND ALLOW FOR WEAK HIGH PRES TO BUILD IN
ACROSS THE MID-ATLC STATES WED INTO THU. ONLY A SLIGHT AIRMASS
CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM REACHING THE HIGHER
LEVELS EXPECTED ON TUE - THAT OF L-M90S. INSTEAD...MUCH OF THE AREA
WILL TOP OUT IN THE M80S...W/ U80S DOTTING THE I-95 CORRIDOR AREA
AND EAST. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AND A LIGHT WNW WIND WILL DOWNSLOPE
AND HELP BUMP UP TEMPS A COUPLE MORE DEG.

WITH THE STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK...DAILY
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE DEVELOPING ALONG IT - ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS AND POSSIBLY UP INTO CNTRL VA...BUT LIKELY JUST SHY OF THE
SRN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE
THE FAST-MOVING SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS AND OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK. THE SFC HIGH WILL ROLL OFF
THE COAST AND START UP AN ONSHORE FLOW AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
THIS WILL HELP TO START OUR COOL-DOWN FROM THE ABNORMALLY HOT/HUMID
CONDITIONS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS. PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE W/ THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRI INTO SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z AT THE HUBS.
OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH MIDDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH
JUST A PASSING SHOWER. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS BY 18-19Z...THUS THE VCTS. THIS MAY BE
TOO EARLY...AND AM SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN ON HOW MUCH COVERAGE WILL
BE APPARENT THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. WILL EVALUATE 12Z GUIDANCE AND
LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR/WRF-ARW AND AMEND AS NECESSARY.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH LEADING THUNDERSTORM ENTERING
FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON WED...W/
WINDS SHIFTING TOWARD NWLY AND HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH. THE HIGH WILL KEEP CONDITIONS QUIET INTO FRI...AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BRING MORE PRECIP FROM FRI INTO SAT...SAGGING JUST S OF THE AREA
FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
MAIN CONCERN OVER THE WATERS WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH LOW VIS IN
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS/WIND SHIFTS. THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
POSSIBLE TUESDAY EVENING WITH A COLD FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE TUE EVE. THE FRONT
WILL DRIFT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. THE SFC
HIGH WILL LARGELY KEEP WINDS LIGHT INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK...MOVING OFF THE COAST BY EARLY FRI - AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT. SCA CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THE MED/LONG RANGES OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/BPP
NEAR TERM...BAJ/BPP
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...GMS
AVIATION...BAJ/BPP/GMS
MARINE...BAJ/BPP/GMS







000
FXUS61 KRNK 011148
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
748 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL STAY BETWEEN A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. DISTURBANCES PASSING BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL COMBINE WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO RESULT IN PERIODIC
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE
NORTH LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN LIFTS NORTH THURSDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...

IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS SHORTWAVE...WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITHOUT MUCH FORCING WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT UPSTREAM 5H TROF/COLD FRONT TO THE NW. A DEEP WESTERLY FLOW
WILL RESULTS IN DRYING ALOFT/LOWERING PWATS ESPECIALLY WEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND A LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

THE GFS...NAM AND ECMWF HIGHLIGHTED THE BEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION
IN THE WEST WITH THE OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ARRIVING
AROUND THE TIME OF MAX HEATING. WHILE IN THE EAST...WEAKER
LAPSES...LACK OF DEEP INSTABILITY AND EASTERN DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL
LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE.

WITH A WARM START...THIS COULD BE ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS SEEN IN A
WHILE WITH 85H TEMPS PUSHING +21C OVER DECENT DOWNSLOPE AND UNDER
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 80S IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER TO MID 90S IN
THE SOUTHEAST.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT...CUT BACK POPS OVERNIGHT. WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN
SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES AND THUS THE
STORM TRACK...WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA AS A BROAD SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE HOLDS ALONG AND SOUTH OF 40 DEG LATITUDE. A STRONG SHORT
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG TO JUST NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AND HOT...HENCE UNSTABLE...FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS FOCUS ON THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION REMAINING WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY
FRONT...WITH A STRONG DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE EAST...WHICH WILL
PUT A DAMPER ON CONVECTION ACROSS THE NEW RIVER VALLEY AND THE
PIEDMONT. THIS PATTERN IS CONSISTENT WITH TIMING AS WELL...WITH
THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION ARRIVING IN THE 18Z-00Z TIME
FRAME...REACHING AREAS EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT AFTER THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME INSOLATION. NONETHELESS...SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD
LINGER ACROSS THE PIEDMONT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

FOR WED...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED JUST SOUTH OF THE
CWA...LIKELY STALLING FROM MIDDLE/EASTERN TN EASTWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL NC. WITH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE...LITTLE
SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT TO PUSH ANY FURTHER SOUTH. MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN CLOSE TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST...WHICH BY AFTERNOON WILL
BEGIN TO CREEP BACK TO THE NORTHEAST INTO SW VA/NW NC. THUS...HAVE
INTRODUCED CHC POPS IN THESE AREAS...BUT AREAS FURTHER NORTH/EAST
SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR WED. BY THU...THE FRONT RETURNS QUICKLY
BACK TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER RIDGE
AMPLIFYING FURTHER ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S...592 DM INTO TN BY
THU...591 OVER VA BY FRIDAY. THIS LEAVES THE REGION IN A VERY
TYPICAL MID-SUMMER LIKE AIR MASS...NAMELY UNSEASONABLY
WARM...HUMID...WITH LIMITED DYNAMICS...BUT AMPLE THERMODYNAMICS
FOR POPUP AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN
CONJUNCTION WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS.
AGAIN...THE HIGHEST POPS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE CWA.

TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND AVERAGE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL...BOTH LOWS AND HIGHS. AFTER MANY BELOW NORMAL
DAYS THIS PAST SUMMER AND NOW THAT IT IS SEPTEMBER AND NORMALLY
STARTING TO GET COOLER...WE ARE INSTEAD LOOKING NOW AT AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S WEST TO 90S EAST AND LOWS IN THE 60S AND 70S. NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY NOW SHOULD BE IN THE 70S WEST AND 80S EAST WITH
LOWS IN THE 50S WEST AND 60S EAST...SO WE WILL BE SEEING READINGS
A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM MONDAY...

THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF UPPER SHORT WAVES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION FRI-SAT. IN RESPONSE...THE CENTER OF THE STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BACK OFF TO THE WEST INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL
STATES...ALBEIT BRIEFLY...ONLY TO SURGE BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS CHANGE WILL ALLOW A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA BY SAT...BRINGING OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. AGAIN THIS BOUNDARY WILL
STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION...RETURNING NORTH BY SUN OR MON.
THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION HAS MANY SIMILARITIES TO THE TUE-WED SET UP
EARLIER IN THE WEEK. ANY COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND
WILL BE MODEST AS 850 TEMPS HOVER IN THE +18C RANGE...EVEN BEHIND
THE FRONT. WHILE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR WITH THE FRONT FRI-SAT...EVEN THEREAFTER THE AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE FOR SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION...BUT NOTHING WELL ORGANIZED WITH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE
REMAINING JUST TO THE SOUTH...AMPLIFYING BACK INTO THE REGION BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUS...OVERALL EXPECT CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND UNSEASONABLY HIGH HUMIDITY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 735 AM EDT MONDAY...

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. AN
UPPER TROUGH WAS MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING AND WILL EXIT TO THE
EAST BY AFTERNOON...LEAVING IN ITS WAKE MOSTLY GUSTY DOWNSLOPE
WEST WINDS. EXPECT MORNING -SHRA TO DISSIPATE BY 14Z. WEST OF THE
ALLEGHANY FRONT HOWEVER...UPSLOPE WEST WINDS WILL RESULT IN A
LONGER PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY MVFR CIGS INTO MID-DAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE VFR CIGS EXPECTED AND CLOUDS SCATTERING
OUT TO THE EAST BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
OVERNIGHT...ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH/FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
WITH -SHRA ENCROACHING ON BLF/LWB AFT 08Z. MOSTLY MID CLOUDS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH GENERALLY VFR CIGS. VSBYS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE A PROBLEM THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD...MAINLY BECAUSE OF A
VERY WARM AIR MASS AND EXTENSIVE MID/HIGH CLOUDS THROUGHOUT MUCH
OF THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS...WSW INCREASING TO
7-10KTS WITH LOW END GUSTS AT ROA/BLF/BCB.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VBSYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY WITH SIMILAR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. FRONT SETTLES CLOSER TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHEN BETTER COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA IS
EXPECTED...AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTH THURSDAY WHERE THE BOUNDARY
STALLS. HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND SOUTHWARD
POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY AT THIS POINT. THUS APPEARS MAINLY VFR
ON TUESDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY IN MORE
ORGANIZED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION...AND MVFR/IFR UNDER
EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE VALLEYS AND WHERE EARLIER HEAVY RAIN
OCCURRED. FRONT WASHES OUT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY WITH
MORE DIURNAL NATURE SHOWERS AND STORMS...OTRW VFR.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...WILL
BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A PART HAS BEEN BACK-ORDERED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK/WP
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...KK/RAB
EQUIPMENT...RAB



000
FXUS61 KRNK 011148
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
748 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL STAY BETWEEN A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. DISTURBANCES PASSING BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL COMBINE WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO RESULT IN PERIODIC
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE
NORTH LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN LIFTS NORTH THURSDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...

IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS SHORTWAVE...WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITHOUT MUCH FORCING WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT UPSTREAM 5H TROF/COLD FRONT TO THE NW. A DEEP WESTERLY FLOW
WILL RESULTS IN DRYING ALOFT/LOWERING PWATS ESPECIALLY WEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND A LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

THE GFS...NAM AND ECMWF HIGHLIGHTED THE BEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION
IN THE WEST WITH THE OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ARRIVING
AROUND THE TIME OF MAX HEATING. WHILE IN THE EAST...WEAKER
LAPSES...LACK OF DEEP INSTABILITY AND EASTERN DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL
LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE.

WITH A WARM START...THIS COULD BE ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS SEEN IN A
WHILE WITH 85H TEMPS PUSHING +21C OVER DECENT DOWNSLOPE AND UNDER
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 80S IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER TO MID 90S IN
THE SOUTHEAST.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT...CUT BACK POPS OVERNIGHT. WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN
SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES AND THUS THE
STORM TRACK...WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA AS A BROAD SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE HOLDS ALONG AND SOUTH OF 40 DEG LATITUDE. A STRONG SHORT
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG TO JUST NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AND HOT...HENCE UNSTABLE...FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS FOCUS ON THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION REMAINING WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY
FRONT...WITH A STRONG DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE EAST...WHICH WILL
PUT A DAMPER ON CONVECTION ACROSS THE NEW RIVER VALLEY AND THE
PIEDMONT. THIS PATTERN IS CONSISTENT WITH TIMING AS WELL...WITH
THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION ARRIVING IN THE 18Z-00Z TIME
FRAME...REACHING AREAS EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT AFTER THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME INSOLATION. NONETHELESS...SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD
LINGER ACROSS THE PIEDMONT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

FOR WED...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED JUST SOUTH OF THE
CWA...LIKELY STALLING FROM MIDDLE/EASTERN TN EASTWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL NC. WITH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE...LITTLE
SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT TO PUSH ANY FURTHER SOUTH. MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN CLOSE TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST...WHICH BY AFTERNOON WILL
BEGIN TO CREEP BACK TO THE NORTHEAST INTO SW VA/NW NC. THUS...HAVE
INTRODUCED CHC POPS IN THESE AREAS...BUT AREAS FURTHER NORTH/EAST
SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR WED. BY THU...THE FRONT RETURNS QUICKLY
BACK TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER RIDGE
AMPLIFYING FURTHER ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S...592 DM INTO TN BY
THU...591 OVER VA BY FRIDAY. THIS LEAVES THE REGION IN A VERY
TYPICAL MID-SUMMER LIKE AIR MASS...NAMELY UNSEASONABLY
WARM...HUMID...WITH LIMITED DYNAMICS...BUT AMPLE THERMODYNAMICS
FOR POPUP AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN
CONJUNCTION WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS.
AGAIN...THE HIGHEST POPS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE CWA.

TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND AVERAGE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL...BOTH LOWS AND HIGHS. AFTER MANY BELOW NORMAL
DAYS THIS PAST SUMMER AND NOW THAT IT IS SEPTEMBER AND NORMALLY
STARTING TO GET COOLER...WE ARE INSTEAD LOOKING NOW AT AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S WEST TO 90S EAST AND LOWS IN THE 60S AND 70S. NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY NOW SHOULD BE IN THE 70S WEST AND 80S EAST WITH
LOWS IN THE 50S WEST AND 60S EAST...SO WE WILL BE SEEING READINGS
A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM MONDAY...

THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF UPPER SHORT WAVES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION FRI-SAT. IN RESPONSE...THE CENTER OF THE STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BACK OFF TO THE WEST INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL
STATES...ALBEIT BRIEFLY...ONLY TO SURGE BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS CHANGE WILL ALLOW A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA BY SAT...BRINGING OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. AGAIN THIS BOUNDARY WILL
STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION...RETURNING NORTH BY SUN OR MON.
THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION HAS MANY SIMILARITIES TO THE TUE-WED SET UP
EARLIER IN THE WEEK. ANY COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND
WILL BE MODEST AS 850 TEMPS HOVER IN THE +18C RANGE...EVEN BEHIND
THE FRONT. WHILE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR WITH THE FRONT FRI-SAT...EVEN THEREAFTER THE AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE FOR SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION...BUT NOTHING WELL ORGANIZED WITH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE
REMAINING JUST TO THE SOUTH...AMPLIFYING BACK INTO THE REGION BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUS...OVERALL EXPECT CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND UNSEASONABLY HIGH HUMIDITY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 735 AM EDT MONDAY...

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. AN
UPPER TROUGH WAS MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING AND WILL EXIT TO THE
EAST BY AFTERNOON...LEAVING IN ITS WAKE MOSTLY GUSTY DOWNSLOPE
WEST WINDS. EXPECT MORNING -SHRA TO DISSIPATE BY 14Z. WEST OF THE
ALLEGHANY FRONT HOWEVER...UPSLOPE WEST WINDS WILL RESULT IN A
LONGER PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY MVFR CIGS INTO MID-DAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE VFR CIGS EXPECTED AND CLOUDS SCATTERING
OUT TO THE EAST BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
OVERNIGHT...ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH/FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
WITH -SHRA ENCROACHING ON BLF/LWB AFT 08Z. MOSTLY MID CLOUDS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH GENERALLY VFR CIGS. VSBYS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE A PROBLEM THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD...MAINLY BECAUSE OF A
VERY WARM AIR MASS AND EXTENSIVE MID/HIGH CLOUDS THROUGHOUT MUCH
OF THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS...WSW INCREASING TO
7-10KTS WITH LOW END GUSTS AT ROA/BLF/BCB.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VBSYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY WITH SIMILAR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. FRONT SETTLES CLOSER TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHEN BETTER COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA IS
EXPECTED...AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTH THURSDAY WHERE THE BOUNDARY
STALLS. HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND SOUTHWARD
POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY AT THIS POINT. THUS APPEARS MAINLY VFR
ON TUESDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY IN MORE
ORGANIZED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION...AND MVFR/IFR UNDER
EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE VALLEYS AND WHERE EARLIER HEAVY RAIN
OCCURRED. FRONT WASHES OUT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY WITH
MORE DIURNAL NATURE SHOWERS AND STORMS...OTRW VFR.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...WILL
BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A PART HAS BEEN BACK-ORDERED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK/WP
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...KK/RAB
EQUIPMENT...RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 010851
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
451 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL STAY BETWEEN A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. DISTURBANCES PASSING BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL COMBINE WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO RESULT IN PERIODIC
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE
NORTH LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN LIFTS NORTH THURSDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...

IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS SHORTWAVE...WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITHOUT MUCH FORCING WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT UPSTREAM 5H TROF/COLD FRONT TO THE NW. A DEEP WESTERLY FLOW
WILL RESULTS IN DRYING ALOFT/LOWERING PWATS ESPECIALLY WEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND A LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

THE GFS...NAM AND ECMWF HIGHLIGHTED THE BEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION
IN THE WEST WITH THE OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ARRIVING
AROUND THE TIME OF MAX HEATING. WHILE IN THE EAST...WEAKER
LAPSES...LACK OF DEEP INSTABILITY AND EASTERN DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL
LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE.

WITH A WARM START...THIS COULD BE ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS SEEN IN A
WHILE WITH 85H TEMPS PUSHING +21C OVER DECENT DOWNSLOPE AND UNDER
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 80S IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER TO MID 90S IN
THE SOUTHEAST.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT...CUT BACK POPS OVERNIGHT. WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN
SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES AND THUS THE
STORM TRACK...WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA AS A BROAD SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE HOLDS ALONG AND SOUTH OF 40 DEG LATITUDE. A STRONG SHORT
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG TO JUST NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AND HOT...HENCE UNSTABLE...FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS FOCUS ON THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION REMAINING WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY
FRONT...WITH A STRONG DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE EAST...WHICH WILL
PUT A DAMPER ON CONVECTION ACROSS THE NEW RIVER VALLEY AND THE
PIEDMONT. THIS PATTERN IS CONSISTENT WITH TIMING AS WELL...WITH
THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION ARRIVING IN THE 18Z-00Z TIME
FRAME...REACHING AREAS EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT AFTER THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME INSOLATION. NONETHELESS...SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD
LINGER ACROSS THE PIEDMONT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

FOR WED...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED JUST SOUTH OF THE
CWA...LIKELY STALLING FROM MIDDLE/EASTERN TN EASTWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL NC. WITH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE...LITTLE
SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT TO PUSH ANY FURTHER SOUTH. MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN CLOSE TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST...WHICH BY AFTERNOON WILL
BEGIN TO CREEP BACK TO THE NORTHEAST INTO SW VA/NW NC. THUS...HAVE
INTRODUCED CHC POPS IN THESE AREAS...BUT AREAS FURTHER NORTH/EAST
SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR WED. BY THU...THE FRONT RETURNS QUICKLY
BACK TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER RIDGE
AMPLIFYING FURTHER ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S...592 DM INTO TN BY
THU...591 OVER VA BY FRIDAY. THIS LEAVES THE REGION IN A VERY
TYPICAL MID-SUMMER LIKE AIR MASS...NAMELY UNSEASONABLY
WARM...HUMID...WITH LIMITED DYNAMICS...BUT AMPLE THERMODYNAMICS
FOR POPUP AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN
CONJUNCTION WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS.
AGAIN...THE HIGHEST POPS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE CWA.

TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND AVERAGE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL...BOTH LOWS AND HIGHS. AFTER MANY BELOW NORMAL
DAYS THIS PAST SUMMER AND NOW THAT IT IS SEPTEMBER AND NORMALLY
STARTING TO GET COOLER...WE ARE INSTEAD LOOKING NOW AT AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S WEST TO 90S EAST AND LOWS IN THE 60S AND 70S. NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY NOW SHOULD BE IN THE 70S WEST AND 80S EAST WITH
LOWS IN THE 50S WEST AND 60S EAST...SO WE WILL BE SEEING READINGS
A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM MONDAY...

THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF UPPER SHORT WAVES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION FRI-SAT. IN RESPONSE...THE CENTER OF THE STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BACK OFF TO THE WEST INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL
STATES...ALBEIT BRIEFLY...ONLY TO SURGE BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS CHANGE WILL ALLOW A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA BY SAT...BRINGING OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. AGAIN THIS BOUNDARY WILL
STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION...RETURNING NORTH BY SUN OR MON.
THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION HAS MANY SIMILARITIES TO THE TUE-WED SET UP
EARLIER IN THE WEEK. ANY COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND
WILL BE MODEST AS 850 TEMPS HOVER IN THE +18C RANGE...EVEN BEHIND
THE FRONT. WHILE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR WITH THE FRONT FRI-SAT...EVEN THEREAFTER THE AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE FOR SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION...BUT NOTHING WELL ORGANIZED WITH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE
REMAINING JUST TO THE SOUTH...AMPLIFYING BACK INTO THE REGION BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUS...OVERALL EXPECT CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND UNSEASONABLY HIGH HUMIDITY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 127 AM EDT MONDAY...

A SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION.
A FEW SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
THE BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER WILL OCCUR AT BLF AND LWB. IN THE
WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE...THE OVERALL THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL FADE
WITH A SCT/BKN MID DECK LINGERING.

PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP THIS MORNING...BUT THE MID DECK SHOULD
LIMIT HOW FAR DOWN VSBYS DROP. WILL KEEP MOST TAF SITES NO WORSE
THAN MVFR THIS MORNING WITH LWB DROPPING OCCASIONALLY TO IFR
AFTER 10Z.

AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT...DEEP WESTERLY FLOW COMBINED
WITH LACK OF FOCUS AND DECENT MIXING SHOULD INHIBIT MUCH
CONVECTION TODAY ESPECIALLY IF EARLY MID DECK PERSISTS. THIS
SUPPORTS GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF LABOR DAY AFTER EARLY
LOW CLOUDS/FOG FADE WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION LIKELY.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.


EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY WITH SIMILAR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. FRONT SETTLES CLOSER TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHEN BETTER COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA IS
EXPECTED...AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTH THURSDAY WHERE THE BOUNDARY
STALLS. HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND SOUTHWARD
POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY AT THIS POINT. THUS APPEARS MAINLY VFR
ON TUESDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY IN MORE
ORGANIZED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION...AND MVFR/IFR UNDER
EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE VALLEYS AND WHERE EARLIER HEAVY RAIN
OCCURRED. FRONT WASHES OUT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY WITH
MORE DIURNAL NATURE SHOWERS AND STORMS...OTRW VFR.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...WILL
BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A PART HAS BEEN BACK-ORDERED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK/WP
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...JH/KK/WP
EQUIPMENT...RAB



000
FXUS61 KRNK 010851
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
451 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL STAY BETWEEN A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. DISTURBANCES PASSING BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL COMBINE WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO RESULT IN PERIODIC
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE
NORTH LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN LIFTS NORTH THURSDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...

IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS SHORTWAVE...WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITHOUT MUCH FORCING WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT UPSTREAM 5H TROF/COLD FRONT TO THE NW. A DEEP WESTERLY FLOW
WILL RESULTS IN DRYING ALOFT/LOWERING PWATS ESPECIALLY WEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND A LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

THE GFS...NAM AND ECMWF HIGHLIGHTED THE BEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION
IN THE WEST WITH THE OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ARRIVING
AROUND THE TIME OF MAX HEATING. WHILE IN THE EAST...WEAKER
LAPSES...LACK OF DEEP INSTABILITY AND EASTERN DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL
LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE.

WITH A WARM START...THIS COULD BE ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS SEEN IN A
WHILE WITH 85H TEMPS PUSHING +21C OVER DECENT DOWNSLOPE AND UNDER
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 80S IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER TO MID 90S IN
THE SOUTHEAST.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT...CUT BACK POPS OVERNIGHT. WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN
SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES AND THUS THE
STORM TRACK...WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA AS A BROAD SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE HOLDS ALONG AND SOUTH OF 40 DEG LATITUDE. A STRONG SHORT
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG TO JUST NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AND HOT...HENCE UNSTABLE...FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS FOCUS ON THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION REMAINING WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY
FRONT...WITH A STRONG DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE EAST...WHICH WILL
PUT A DAMPER ON CONVECTION ACROSS THE NEW RIVER VALLEY AND THE
PIEDMONT. THIS PATTERN IS CONSISTENT WITH TIMING AS WELL...WITH
THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION ARRIVING IN THE 18Z-00Z TIME
FRAME...REACHING AREAS EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT AFTER THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME INSOLATION. NONETHELESS...SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD
LINGER ACROSS THE PIEDMONT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

FOR WED...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED JUST SOUTH OF THE
CWA...LIKELY STALLING FROM MIDDLE/EASTERN TN EASTWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL NC. WITH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE...LITTLE
SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT TO PUSH ANY FURTHER SOUTH. MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN CLOSE TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST...WHICH BY AFTERNOON WILL
BEGIN TO CREEP BACK TO THE NORTHEAST INTO SW VA/NW NC. THUS...HAVE
INTRODUCED CHC POPS IN THESE AREAS...BUT AREAS FURTHER NORTH/EAST
SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR WED. BY THU...THE FRONT RETURNS QUICKLY
BACK TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER RIDGE
AMPLIFYING FURTHER ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S...592 DM INTO TN BY
THU...591 OVER VA BY FRIDAY. THIS LEAVES THE REGION IN A VERY
TYPICAL MID-SUMMER LIKE AIR MASS...NAMELY UNSEASONABLY
WARM...HUMID...WITH LIMITED DYNAMICS...BUT AMPLE THERMODYNAMICS
FOR POPUP AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN
CONJUNCTION WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS.
AGAIN...THE HIGHEST POPS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE CWA.

TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND AVERAGE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL...BOTH LOWS AND HIGHS. AFTER MANY BELOW NORMAL
DAYS THIS PAST SUMMER AND NOW THAT IT IS SEPTEMBER AND NORMALLY
STARTING TO GET COOLER...WE ARE INSTEAD LOOKING NOW AT AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S WEST TO 90S EAST AND LOWS IN THE 60S AND 70S. NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY NOW SHOULD BE IN THE 70S WEST AND 80S EAST WITH
LOWS IN THE 50S WEST AND 60S EAST...SO WE WILL BE SEEING READINGS
A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM MONDAY...

THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF UPPER SHORT WAVES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION FRI-SAT. IN RESPONSE...THE CENTER OF THE STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BACK OFF TO THE WEST INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL
STATES...ALBEIT BRIEFLY...ONLY TO SURGE BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS CHANGE WILL ALLOW A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA BY SAT...BRINGING OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. AGAIN THIS BOUNDARY WILL
STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION...RETURNING NORTH BY SUN OR MON.
THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION HAS MANY SIMILARITIES TO THE TUE-WED SET UP
EARLIER IN THE WEEK. ANY COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND
WILL BE MODEST AS 850 TEMPS HOVER IN THE +18C RANGE...EVEN BEHIND
THE FRONT. WHILE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR WITH THE FRONT FRI-SAT...EVEN THEREAFTER THE AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE FOR SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION...BUT NOTHING WELL ORGANIZED WITH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE
REMAINING JUST TO THE SOUTH...AMPLIFYING BACK INTO THE REGION BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUS...OVERALL EXPECT CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND UNSEASONABLY HIGH HUMIDITY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 127 AM EDT MONDAY...

A SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION.
A FEW SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
THE BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER WILL OCCUR AT BLF AND LWB. IN THE
WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE...THE OVERALL THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL FADE
WITH A SCT/BKN MID DECK LINGERING.

PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP THIS MORNING...BUT THE MID DECK SHOULD
LIMIT HOW FAR DOWN VSBYS DROP. WILL KEEP MOST TAF SITES NO WORSE
THAN MVFR THIS MORNING WITH LWB DROPPING OCCASIONALLY TO IFR
AFTER 10Z.

AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT...DEEP WESTERLY FLOW COMBINED
WITH LACK OF FOCUS AND DECENT MIXING SHOULD INHIBIT MUCH
CONVECTION TODAY ESPECIALLY IF EARLY MID DECK PERSISTS. THIS
SUPPORTS GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF LABOR DAY AFTER EARLY
LOW CLOUDS/FOG FADE WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION LIKELY.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.


EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY WITH SIMILAR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. FRONT SETTLES CLOSER TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHEN BETTER COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA IS
EXPECTED...AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTH THURSDAY WHERE THE BOUNDARY
STALLS. HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND SOUTHWARD
POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY AT THIS POINT. THUS APPEARS MAINLY VFR
ON TUESDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY IN MORE
ORGANIZED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION...AND MVFR/IFR UNDER
EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE VALLEYS AND WHERE EARLIER HEAVY RAIN
OCCURRED. FRONT WASHES OUT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY WITH
MORE DIURNAL NATURE SHOWERS AND STORMS...OTRW VFR.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...WILL
BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A PART HAS BEEN BACK-ORDERED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK/WP
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...JH/KK/WP
EQUIPMENT...RAB



000
FXUS61 KRNK 010851
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
451 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL STAY BETWEEN A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. DISTURBANCES PASSING BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL COMBINE WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO RESULT IN PERIODIC
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE
NORTH LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN LIFTS NORTH THURSDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...

IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS SHORTWAVE...WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITHOUT MUCH FORCING WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT UPSTREAM 5H TROF/COLD FRONT TO THE NW. A DEEP WESTERLY FLOW
WILL RESULTS IN DRYING ALOFT/LOWERING PWATS ESPECIALLY WEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND A LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

THE GFS...NAM AND ECMWF HIGHLIGHTED THE BEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION
IN THE WEST WITH THE OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ARRIVING
AROUND THE TIME OF MAX HEATING. WHILE IN THE EAST...WEAKER
LAPSES...LACK OF DEEP INSTABILITY AND EASTERN DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL
LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE.

WITH A WARM START...THIS COULD BE ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS SEEN IN A
WHILE WITH 85H TEMPS PUSHING +21C OVER DECENT DOWNSLOPE AND UNDER
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 80S IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER TO MID 90S IN
THE SOUTHEAST.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT...CUT BACK POPS OVERNIGHT. WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN
SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES AND THUS THE
STORM TRACK...WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA AS A BROAD SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE HOLDS ALONG AND SOUTH OF 40 DEG LATITUDE. A STRONG SHORT
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG TO JUST NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AND HOT...HENCE UNSTABLE...FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS FOCUS ON THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION REMAINING WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY
FRONT...WITH A STRONG DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE EAST...WHICH WILL
PUT A DAMPER ON CONVECTION ACROSS THE NEW RIVER VALLEY AND THE
PIEDMONT. THIS PATTERN IS CONSISTENT WITH TIMING AS WELL...WITH
THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION ARRIVING IN THE 18Z-00Z TIME
FRAME...REACHING AREAS EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT AFTER THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME INSOLATION. NONETHELESS...SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD
LINGER ACROSS THE PIEDMONT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

FOR WED...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED JUST SOUTH OF THE
CWA...LIKELY STALLING FROM MIDDLE/EASTERN TN EASTWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL NC. WITH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE...LITTLE
SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT TO PUSH ANY FURTHER SOUTH. MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN CLOSE TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST...WHICH BY AFTERNOON WILL
BEGIN TO CREEP BACK TO THE NORTHEAST INTO SW VA/NW NC. THUS...HAVE
INTRODUCED CHC POPS IN THESE AREAS...BUT AREAS FURTHER NORTH/EAST
SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR WED. BY THU...THE FRONT RETURNS QUICKLY
BACK TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER RIDGE
AMPLIFYING FURTHER ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S...592 DM INTO TN BY
THU...591 OVER VA BY FRIDAY. THIS LEAVES THE REGION IN A VERY
TYPICAL MID-SUMMER LIKE AIR MASS...NAMELY UNSEASONABLY
WARM...HUMID...WITH LIMITED DYNAMICS...BUT AMPLE THERMODYNAMICS
FOR POPUP AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN
CONJUNCTION WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS.
AGAIN...THE HIGHEST POPS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE CWA.

TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND AVERAGE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL...BOTH LOWS AND HIGHS. AFTER MANY BELOW NORMAL
DAYS THIS PAST SUMMER AND NOW THAT IT IS SEPTEMBER AND NORMALLY
STARTING TO GET COOLER...WE ARE INSTEAD LOOKING NOW AT AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S WEST TO 90S EAST AND LOWS IN THE 60S AND 70S. NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY NOW SHOULD BE IN THE 70S WEST AND 80S EAST WITH
LOWS IN THE 50S WEST AND 60S EAST...SO WE WILL BE SEEING READINGS
A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM MONDAY...

THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF UPPER SHORT WAVES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION FRI-SAT. IN RESPONSE...THE CENTER OF THE STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BACK OFF TO THE WEST INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL
STATES...ALBEIT BRIEFLY...ONLY TO SURGE BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS CHANGE WILL ALLOW A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA BY SAT...BRINGING OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. AGAIN THIS BOUNDARY WILL
STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION...RETURNING NORTH BY SUN OR MON.
THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION HAS MANY SIMILARITIES TO THE TUE-WED SET UP
EARLIER IN THE WEEK. ANY COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND
WILL BE MODEST AS 850 TEMPS HOVER IN THE +18C RANGE...EVEN BEHIND
THE FRONT. WHILE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR WITH THE FRONT FRI-SAT...EVEN THEREAFTER THE AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE FOR SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION...BUT NOTHING WELL ORGANIZED WITH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE
REMAINING JUST TO THE SOUTH...AMPLIFYING BACK INTO THE REGION BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUS...OVERALL EXPECT CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND UNSEASONABLY HIGH HUMIDITY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 127 AM EDT MONDAY...

A SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION.
A FEW SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
THE BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER WILL OCCUR AT BLF AND LWB. IN THE
WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE...THE OVERALL THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL FADE
WITH A SCT/BKN MID DECK LINGERING.

PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP THIS MORNING...BUT THE MID DECK SHOULD
LIMIT HOW FAR DOWN VSBYS DROP. WILL KEEP MOST TAF SITES NO WORSE
THAN MVFR THIS MORNING WITH LWB DROPPING OCCASIONALLY TO IFR
AFTER 10Z.

AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT...DEEP WESTERLY FLOW COMBINED
WITH LACK OF FOCUS AND DECENT MIXING SHOULD INHIBIT MUCH
CONVECTION TODAY ESPECIALLY IF EARLY MID DECK PERSISTS. THIS
SUPPORTS GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF LABOR DAY AFTER EARLY
LOW CLOUDS/FOG FADE WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION LIKELY.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.


EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY WITH SIMILAR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. FRONT SETTLES CLOSER TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHEN BETTER COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA IS
EXPECTED...AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTH THURSDAY WHERE THE BOUNDARY
STALLS. HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND SOUTHWARD
POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY AT THIS POINT. THUS APPEARS MAINLY VFR
ON TUESDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY IN MORE
ORGANIZED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION...AND MVFR/IFR UNDER
EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE VALLEYS AND WHERE EARLIER HEAVY RAIN
OCCURRED. FRONT WASHES OUT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY WITH
MORE DIURNAL NATURE SHOWERS AND STORMS...OTRW VFR.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...WILL
BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A PART HAS BEEN BACK-ORDERED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK/WP
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...JH/KK/WP
EQUIPMENT...RAB



000
FXUS61 KRNK 010851
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
451 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL STAY BETWEEN A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. DISTURBANCES PASSING BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL COMBINE WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO RESULT IN PERIODIC
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE
NORTH LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN LIFTS NORTH THURSDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...

IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS SHORTWAVE...WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITHOUT MUCH FORCING WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT UPSTREAM 5H TROF/COLD FRONT TO THE NW. A DEEP WESTERLY FLOW
WILL RESULTS IN DRYING ALOFT/LOWERING PWATS ESPECIALLY WEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND A LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

THE GFS...NAM AND ECMWF HIGHLIGHTED THE BEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION
IN THE WEST WITH THE OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ARRIVING
AROUND THE TIME OF MAX HEATING. WHILE IN THE EAST...WEAKER
LAPSES...LACK OF DEEP INSTABILITY AND EASTERN DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL
LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE.

WITH A WARM START...THIS COULD BE ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS SEEN IN A
WHILE WITH 85H TEMPS PUSHING +21C OVER DECENT DOWNSLOPE AND UNDER
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 80S IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER TO MID 90S IN
THE SOUTHEAST.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT...CUT BACK POPS OVERNIGHT. WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN
SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES AND THUS THE
STORM TRACK...WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA AS A BROAD SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE HOLDS ALONG AND SOUTH OF 40 DEG LATITUDE. A STRONG SHORT
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG TO JUST NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AND HOT...HENCE UNSTABLE...FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS FOCUS ON THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION REMAINING WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY
FRONT...WITH A STRONG DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE EAST...WHICH WILL
PUT A DAMPER ON CONVECTION ACROSS THE NEW RIVER VALLEY AND THE
PIEDMONT. THIS PATTERN IS CONSISTENT WITH TIMING AS WELL...WITH
THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION ARRIVING IN THE 18Z-00Z TIME
FRAME...REACHING AREAS EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT AFTER THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME INSOLATION. NONETHELESS...SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD
LINGER ACROSS THE PIEDMONT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

FOR WED...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED JUST SOUTH OF THE
CWA...LIKELY STALLING FROM MIDDLE/EASTERN TN EASTWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL NC. WITH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE...LITTLE
SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT TO PUSH ANY FURTHER SOUTH. MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN CLOSE TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST...WHICH BY AFTERNOON WILL
BEGIN TO CREEP BACK TO THE NORTHEAST INTO SW VA/NW NC. THUS...HAVE
INTRODUCED CHC POPS IN THESE AREAS...BUT AREAS FURTHER NORTH/EAST
SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR WED. BY THU...THE FRONT RETURNS QUICKLY
BACK TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER RIDGE
AMPLIFYING FURTHER ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S...592 DM INTO TN BY
THU...591 OVER VA BY FRIDAY. THIS LEAVES THE REGION IN A VERY
TYPICAL MID-SUMMER LIKE AIR MASS...NAMELY UNSEASONABLY
WARM...HUMID...WITH LIMITED DYNAMICS...BUT AMPLE THERMODYNAMICS
FOR POPUP AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN
CONJUNCTION WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS.
AGAIN...THE HIGHEST POPS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE CWA.

TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND AVERAGE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL...BOTH LOWS AND HIGHS. AFTER MANY BELOW NORMAL
DAYS THIS PAST SUMMER AND NOW THAT IT IS SEPTEMBER AND NORMALLY
STARTING TO GET COOLER...WE ARE INSTEAD LOOKING NOW AT AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S WEST TO 90S EAST AND LOWS IN THE 60S AND 70S. NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY NOW SHOULD BE IN THE 70S WEST AND 80S EAST WITH
LOWS IN THE 50S WEST AND 60S EAST...SO WE WILL BE SEEING READINGS
A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM MONDAY...

THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF UPPER SHORT WAVES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION FRI-SAT. IN RESPONSE...THE CENTER OF THE STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BACK OFF TO THE WEST INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL
STATES...ALBEIT BRIEFLY...ONLY TO SURGE BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS CHANGE WILL ALLOW A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA BY SAT...BRINGING OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. AGAIN THIS BOUNDARY WILL
STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION...RETURNING NORTH BY SUN OR MON.
THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION HAS MANY SIMILARITIES TO THE TUE-WED SET UP
EARLIER IN THE WEEK. ANY COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND
WILL BE MODEST AS 850 TEMPS HOVER IN THE +18C RANGE...EVEN BEHIND
THE FRONT. WHILE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR WITH THE FRONT FRI-SAT...EVEN THEREAFTER THE AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE FOR SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION...BUT NOTHING WELL ORGANIZED WITH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE
REMAINING JUST TO THE SOUTH...AMPLIFYING BACK INTO THE REGION BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUS...OVERALL EXPECT CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND UNSEASONABLY HIGH HUMIDITY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 127 AM EDT MONDAY...

A SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION.
A FEW SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
THE BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER WILL OCCUR AT BLF AND LWB. IN THE
WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE...THE OVERALL THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL FADE
WITH A SCT/BKN MID DECK LINGERING.

PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP THIS MORNING...BUT THE MID DECK SHOULD
LIMIT HOW FAR DOWN VSBYS DROP. WILL KEEP MOST TAF SITES NO WORSE
THAN MVFR THIS MORNING WITH LWB DROPPING OCCASIONALLY TO IFR
AFTER 10Z.

AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT...DEEP WESTERLY FLOW COMBINED
WITH LACK OF FOCUS AND DECENT MIXING SHOULD INHIBIT MUCH
CONVECTION TODAY ESPECIALLY IF EARLY MID DECK PERSISTS. THIS
SUPPORTS GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF LABOR DAY AFTER EARLY
LOW CLOUDS/FOG FADE WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION LIKELY.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.


EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY WITH SIMILAR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. FRONT SETTLES CLOSER TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHEN BETTER COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA IS
EXPECTED...AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTH THURSDAY WHERE THE BOUNDARY
STALLS. HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND SOUTHWARD
POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY AT THIS POINT. THUS APPEARS MAINLY VFR
ON TUESDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY IN MORE
ORGANIZED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION...AND MVFR/IFR UNDER
EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE VALLEYS AND WHERE EARLIER HEAVY RAIN
OCCURRED. FRONT WASHES OUT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY WITH
MORE DIURNAL NATURE SHOWERS AND STORMS...OTRW VFR.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...WILL
BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A PART HAS BEEN BACK-ORDERED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK/WP
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...JH/KK/WP
EQUIPMENT...RAB



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010809
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
409 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TODAY AND
TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
SETTLES NEAR THE VIRGINIA NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ISO SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL PASS OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH 12Z AS A WEAK TROUGH PASSES OVER THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC.
OTHERWISE...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER
THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW STEADILY VEERS TO THE SW
ALLOWING FOR A FAVORABLE SITUATION FOR STRONG SURFACE HEATING. 850MB
TEMPERATURES APPROACH 20C BY THIS AFTERNOON SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE
MID 90S AWAY FROM THE COASTLINES...WITH UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE
COASTS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD GENERALLY AVERAGE 65-70F DURING PEAK
HEATING AND THIS SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICES AOB 100. THERE WILL BE NO
SUBSTANTIAL TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH A LINGERING SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A LOW (20-30%) POP FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS/TSTMS GENERALLY E OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE HOTTEST DAY AS 850MB TEMPERATURES AVERAGE
AROUND 20C. THIS COMBINED WITH DEEP MIXING AND A SW WIND OF 10-15MPH
SHOULD HELP BOOST HIGHS INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S INLAND WITH LOW 90S
ALONG THE COASTLINES. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
MID/UPPER 60S...AND ONCE AGAIN THIS SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICES AOB
100. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS AVERAGE AROUND +1.5-2.0 ST DEV ABOVE
SEASONAL MEANS...AND APPROACH BUT FALL SHORT OF RECORDS...WHICH ARE
LISTED BELOW FOR REFERENCE. TUESDAY SHOULD GENERALLY BE DRY AS A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION INHIBITS CONVECTION. THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE
OF A WEAK COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT COULD TRIGGER A FEW
SHOWERS/TSTMS...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED.

THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT CHC POP
WILL BE MAINTAINED IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT OVERALL EXPECT
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY SHOULD DROP BACK
INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S. LOWS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MORNINGS SHOULD
AVERAGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR WED NGT/THU...AFOREMENTIONED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WASHES OUT OVR/JUST S OF THE FA WHILE SFC HI PRES BLDS ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC. DID INCLUDE A SLGT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM OVR SRN
AREAS CLOSEST TO THE GREATEST MOISTURE AXIS AND FORCING...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE UPR 80S TO
LWR 90S UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LGT ONSHORE WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA. SFC HI PRES REMAINS
OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WEST.
MODELS AGREE ON TIMING THE FRONT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC OVR THE
WEEKEND...SO DID INTRODUCE A CHANCE (30%) FOR AFTN/EVENG
SHRAS/TSTMS. HI TEMPS FRI AND SAT WILL BE IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S
WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS (DECKS 4-6K FT AGL) GENERALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF A LINE FROM FARMVILLE TO RICHMOND AND SALISBURY.
ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY BKN HIGH CLOUDS AOA 25K FT AGL. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING NORTH OF A RICHMOND TO SALISBURY
LINE...POSSIBLY IMPACTING KSBY THRU EARLY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH...SO WILL ADJUST TAFS AS NEEDED. OTHERWISE...MIXING WILL
PRECLUDE FOG TONIGHT AS SOUTH WINDS AVG 5-7 KT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
LOCALES CLOSE TO THE ALBEMARLE SOUND FOR SOME STRATUS...WITH KECG
FORECAST TO DROP TO IFR CIGS BY 8-9Z.

FOR TODAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN AS VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG A
SFC TROUGH OVER ERN VA. SLY WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KT WITH A FEW
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK AS
A WEAK SFC TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST ON TUES...CROSSING THE REGION LATE TUES NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURS AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE
CAROLINAS. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC AS A WEAK
SFC TROUGH LOCATES WEST OF THE WATERS. RESULTANT GRADIENT SLY FLOW
OVER WARM WATERS HAS PUSHED SPEEDS TO AROUND 15 KT IN THE BAY AND
15-20 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. WAVES ALSO AVG 2-3 FT AND SEAS 3-4
FT. SCA CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED THRU THE EARLY MORNING. LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE PATTERN TODAY WITH SLY WINDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT OVER
THE WATERS. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT TODAY AND WAVES 1-2 FT. SLY FLOW
INCREASES AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS AS
FLOW BECOMES MORE SWLY. SEAS FORECAST TO BUILD BACK TO 3-4 FT...BUT
REMAIN SUB-SCA. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
TUES...CROSSING THE WATERS LATE TUES NIGHT INTO WEDS. STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS PRE-FRONTAL LATE
TUES-TUES NIGHT...BUT WAA ALOFT WILL RESULT IN UNFAVORABLE LAPSE
RATES. 10-15 KT FORECAST OVER THE BAY AND 15-20 OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. SEAS REMAIN 3-4 FT. FLOW BECOMES W-NW BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT/LACK OF CAA WILL PREVENT SCA CONDITIONS POST
FRONTAL. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT WEDS...SETTLING
OVER THE WATERS WEDS NIGHT THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. AS A
RESULT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
WINDS AOB 10 KT AND SEAS/WAVES AOB 2 FT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY 9/2:

RIC: 100/1980
ORF:  97/1993
SBY:  97/1980
ECG:  96/1943

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...SAM
MARINE...SAM
CLIMATE...AKQ





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010809
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
409 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TODAY AND
TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
SETTLES NEAR THE VIRGINIA NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ISO SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL PASS OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH 12Z AS A WEAK TROUGH PASSES OVER THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC.
OTHERWISE...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER
THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW STEADILY VEERS TO THE SW
ALLOWING FOR A FAVORABLE SITUATION FOR STRONG SURFACE HEATING. 850MB
TEMPERATURES APPROACH 20C BY THIS AFTERNOON SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE
MID 90S AWAY FROM THE COASTLINES...WITH UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE
COASTS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD GENERALLY AVERAGE 65-70F DURING PEAK
HEATING AND THIS SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICES AOB 100. THERE WILL BE NO
SUBSTANTIAL TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH A LINGERING SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A LOW (20-30%) POP FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS/TSTMS GENERALLY E OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE HOTTEST DAY AS 850MB TEMPERATURES AVERAGE
AROUND 20C. THIS COMBINED WITH DEEP MIXING AND A SW WIND OF 10-15MPH
SHOULD HELP BOOST HIGHS INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S INLAND WITH LOW 90S
ALONG THE COASTLINES. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
MID/UPPER 60S...AND ONCE AGAIN THIS SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICES AOB
100. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS AVERAGE AROUND +1.5-2.0 ST DEV ABOVE
SEASONAL MEANS...AND APPROACH BUT FALL SHORT OF RECORDS...WHICH ARE
LISTED BELOW FOR REFERENCE. TUESDAY SHOULD GENERALLY BE DRY AS A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION INHIBITS CONVECTION. THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE
OF A WEAK COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT COULD TRIGGER A FEW
SHOWERS/TSTMS...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED.

THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT CHC POP
WILL BE MAINTAINED IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT OVERALL EXPECT
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY SHOULD DROP BACK
INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S. LOWS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MORNINGS SHOULD
AVERAGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR WED NGT/THU...AFOREMENTIONED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WASHES OUT OVR/JUST S OF THE FA WHILE SFC HI PRES BLDS ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC. DID INCLUDE A SLGT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM OVR SRN
AREAS CLOSEST TO THE GREATEST MOISTURE AXIS AND FORCING...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE UPR 80S TO
LWR 90S UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LGT ONSHORE WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA. SFC HI PRES REMAINS
OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WEST.
MODELS AGREE ON TIMING THE FRONT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC OVR THE
WEEKEND...SO DID INTRODUCE A CHANCE (30%) FOR AFTN/EVENG
SHRAS/TSTMS. HI TEMPS FRI AND SAT WILL BE IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S
WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS (DECKS 4-6K FT AGL) GENERALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF A LINE FROM FARMVILLE TO RICHMOND AND SALISBURY.
ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY BKN HIGH CLOUDS AOA 25K FT AGL. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING NORTH OF A RICHMOND TO SALISBURY
LINE...POSSIBLY IMPACTING KSBY THRU EARLY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH...SO WILL ADJUST TAFS AS NEEDED. OTHERWISE...MIXING WILL
PRECLUDE FOG TONIGHT AS SOUTH WINDS AVG 5-7 KT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
LOCALES CLOSE TO THE ALBEMARLE SOUND FOR SOME STRATUS...WITH KECG
FORECAST TO DROP TO IFR CIGS BY 8-9Z.

FOR TODAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN AS VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG A
SFC TROUGH OVER ERN VA. SLY WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KT WITH A FEW
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK AS
A WEAK SFC TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST ON TUES...CROSSING THE REGION LATE TUES NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURS AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE
CAROLINAS. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC AS A WEAK
SFC TROUGH LOCATES WEST OF THE WATERS. RESULTANT GRADIENT SLY FLOW
OVER WARM WATERS HAS PUSHED SPEEDS TO AROUND 15 KT IN THE BAY AND
15-20 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. WAVES ALSO AVG 2-3 FT AND SEAS 3-4
FT. SCA CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED THRU THE EARLY MORNING. LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE PATTERN TODAY WITH SLY WINDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT OVER
THE WATERS. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT TODAY AND WAVES 1-2 FT. SLY FLOW
INCREASES AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS AS
FLOW BECOMES MORE SWLY. SEAS FORECAST TO BUILD BACK TO 3-4 FT...BUT
REMAIN SUB-SCA. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
TUES...CROSSING THE WATERS LATE TUES NIGHT INTO WEDS. STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS PRE-FRONTAL LATE
TUES-TUES NIGHT...BUT WAA ALOFT WILL RESULT IN UNFAVORABLE LAPSE
RATES. 10-15 KT FORECAST OVER THE BAY AND 15-20 OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. SEAS REMAIN 3-4 FT. FLOW BECOMES W-NW BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT/LACK OF CAA WILL PREVENT SCA CONDITIONS POST
FRONTAL. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT WEDS...SETTLING
OVER THE WATERS WEDS NIGHT THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. AS A
RESULT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
WINDS AOB 10 KT AND SEAS/WAVES AOB 2 FT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY 9/2:

RIC: 100/1980
ORF:  97/1993
SBY:  97/1980
ECG:  96/1943

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...SAM
MARINE...SAM
CLIMATE...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KLWX 010759
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
359 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. A BOUNDARY WILL
PERSIST OVER THE AREA TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A REMNANT BOUNDARY FROM EVENING ACTIVITY IS STILL LYING EAST-WEST
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS DIFFUSE BOUNDARY IS CONVERGENCE
BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES
AND WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA INTO TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY. A DIURNAL RESURGENCE ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES WILL LEAD TO MORE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
WEAK SFC RIDGING CROSSES THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...MAKING FOR AN OVERNIGHT/MOST OF TUESDAY REPRIEVE FROM
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH IN PLACE...EXPECT TUESDAY TO
HAVE THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURE DAY SINCE JULY. MAX TEMPS LOW TO MID
90S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES MAY BE LOWER OUT WEST
WHERE ACTIVITY WILL FIRE FIRST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BEHIND A SHARP AND POTENT UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LARGE ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN ABOVE THE NRN HALF OF THE CONUS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
CURRENT WEEK. THIS UPPER-LEVEL HIGHWAY OF FAST-MOVING FLOW WILL NOT
ONLY TAKE THE TUE TROUGH PASSAGE QUICKLY AWAY FROM THE AREA AND OFF
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND...BUT BRING ANOTHER TOWARD THE AREA JUST A COUPLE
OF DAYS LATER - ALL THE WAY FROM THE NRN ROCKIES. THE UPPER RIDGE
LAID OUT ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CONUS HOWEVER...WILL KEEP THESE
LOW PRES SYSTEM PASSES FROM MAKING A RUN TOO FAR SOUTH. THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE OF THE TUE/EARLY WED SYSTEM AND THE LATE WEEK ONE WILL
LARGELY SKIM THE REGION W/ THE JUST THE RESIDUAL/LEFTOVER EFFECTS OF
THE MORE POTENT SYSTEM FURTHER TO THE NORTH.

EVEN W/ THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUE W/
MORE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY...THE UPPER DYNAMICS BEHIND THE STRENGTH
OF THE FRONT WILL TAKE OFF TO THE NE. THE LEFTOVER BOUNDARY WILL
STALL-OUT TO OUR SOUTH AND ALLOW FOR WEAK HIGH PRES TO BUILD IN
ACROSS THE MID-ATLC STATES WED INTO THU. ONLY A SLIGHT AIRMASS
CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM REACHING THE HIGHER
LEVELS EXPECTED ON TUE - THAT OF L-M90S. INSTEAD...MUCH OF THE AREA
WILL TOP OUT IN THE M80S...W/ U80S DOTTING THE I-95 CORRIDOR AREA
AND EAST. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AND A LIGHT WNW WIND WILL DOWNSLOPE
AND HELP BUMP UP TEMPS A COUPLE MORE DEG.

WITH THE STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK...DAILY
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE DEVELOPING ALONG IT - ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS AND POSSIBLY UP INTO CNTRL VA...BUT LIKELY JUST SHY OF THE
SRN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE
THE FAST-MOVING SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS AND OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK. THE SFC HIGH WILL ROLL OFF
THE COAST AND START UP AN ONSHORE FLOW AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
THIS WILL HELP TO START OUR COOL-DOWN FROM THE ABNORMALLY HOT/HUMID
CONDITIONS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS. PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE W/ THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRI INTO SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES TODAY AS SCATTERED HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS FORM
ALONG A BOUNDARY THAT IS LYING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. EXPECT IFR CONDS UNDER THUNDERSTORMS. LIGHT SOUTHWEST OR
WEST FLOW TODAY AND TUESDAY. COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH
LEADING THUNDERSTORM ENTERING FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY.

THE HOT/HUMID AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO WANE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON WED...W/ WINDS SHIFTING TOWARD NWLY
AND HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. THE HIGH WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS QUIET INTO FRI...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE PRECIP FROM FRI
INTO SAT...SAGGING JUST S OF THE AREA FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
10 TO 15KT SWLY/WLY FLOW THROUGH TUESDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS MORNING...THEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER THE WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE TUE EVE. THE FRONT
WILL DRIFT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. THE SFC
HIGH WILL LARGELY KEEP WINDS LIGHT INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK...MOVING OFF THE COAST BY EARLY FRI - AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT. SCA CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THE MED/LONG RANGES OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THE MORNING AS SWLY FLOW UP TO 15 KT PERSISTS. WATER
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NORMAL BY MIDDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...BAJ
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...GMS
AVIATION...BAJ/GMS
MARINE...BAJ/GMS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BAJ






000
FXUS61 KLWX 010759
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
359 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. A BOUNDARY WILL
PERSIST OVER THE AREA TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A REMNANT BOUNDARY FROM EVENING ACTIVITY IS STILL LYING EAST-WEST
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS DIFFUSE BOUNDARY IS CONVERGENCE
BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES
AND WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA INTO TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY. A DIURNAL RESURGENCE ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES WILL LEAD TO MORE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
WEAK SFC RIDGING CROSSES THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...MAKING FOR AN OVERNIGHT/MOST OF TUESDAY REPRIEVE FROM
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH IN PLACE...EXPECT TUESDAY TO
HAVE THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURE DAY SINCE JULY. MAX TEMPS LOW TO MID
90S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES MAY BE LOWER OUT WEST
WHERE ACTIVITY WILL FIRE FIRST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BEHIND A SHARP AND POTENT UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LARGE ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN ABOVE THE NRN HALF OF THE CONUS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
CURRENT WEEK. THIS UPPER-LEVEL HIGHWAY OF FAST-MOVING FLOW WILL NOT
ONLY TAKE THE TUE TROUGH PASSAGE QUICKLY AWAY FROM THE AREA AND OFF
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND...BUT BRING ANOTHER TOWARD THE AREA JUST A COUPLE
OF DAYS LATER - ALL THE WAY FROM THE NRN ROCKIES. THE UPPER RIDGE
LAID OUT ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CONUS HOWEVER...WILL KEEP THESE
LOW PRES SYSTEM PASSES FROM MAKING A RUN TOO FAR SOUTH. THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE OF THE TUE/EARLY WED SYSTEM AND THE LATE WEEK ONE WILL
LARGELY SKIM THE REGION W/ THE JUST THE RESIDUAL/LEFTOVER EFFECTS OF
THE MORE POTENT SYSTEM FURTHER TO THE NORTH.

EVEN W/ THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUE W/
MORE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY...THE UPPER DYNAMICS BEHIND THE STRENGTH
OF THE FRONT WILL TAKE OFF TO THE NE. THE LEFTOVER BOUNDARY WILL
STALL-OUT TO OUR SOUTH AND ALLOW FOR WEAK HIGH PRES TO BUILD IN
ACROSS THE MID-ATLC STATES WED INTO THU. ONLY A SLIGHT AIRMASS
CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM REACHING THE HIGHER
LEVELS EXPECTED ON TUE - THAT OF L-M90S. INSTEAD...MUCH OF THE AREA
WILL TOP OUT IN THE M80S...W/ U80S DOTTING THE I-95 CORRIDOR AREA
AND EAST. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AND A LIGHT WNW WIND WILL DOWNSLOPE
AND HELP BUMP UP TEMPS A COUPLE MORE DEG.

WITH THE STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK...DAILY
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE DEVELOPING ALONG IT - ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS AND POSSIBLY UP INTO CNTRL VA...BUT LIKELY JUST SHY OF THE
SRN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE
THE FAST-MOVING SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS AND OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK. THE SFC HIGH WILL ROLL OFF
THE COAST AND START UP AN ONSHORE FLOW AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
THIS WILL HELP TO START OUR COOL-DOWN FROM THE ABNORMALLY HOT/HUMID
CONDITIONS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS. PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE W/ THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRI INTO SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES TODAY AS SCATTERED HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS FORM
ALONG A BOUNDARY THAT IS LYING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. EXPECT IFR CONDS UNDER THUNDERSTORMS. LIGHT SOUTHWEST OR
WEST FLOW TODAY AND TUESDAY. COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH
LEADING THUNDERSTORM ENTERING FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY.

THE HOT/HUMID AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO WANE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON WED...W/ WINDS SHIFTING TOWARD NWLY
AND HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. THE HIGH WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS QUIET INTO FRI...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE PRECIP FROM FRI
INTO SAT...SAGGING JUST S OF THE AREA FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
10 TO 15KT SWLY/WLY FLOW THROUGH TUESDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS MORNING...THEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER THE WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE TUE EVE. THE FRONT
WILL DRIFT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. THE SFC
HIGH WILL LARGELY KEEP WINDS LIGHT INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK...MOVING OFF THE COAST BY EARLY FRI - AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT. SCA CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THE MED/LONG RANGES OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THE MORNING AS SWLY FLOW UP TO 15 KT PERSISTS. WATER
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NORMAL BY MIDDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...BAJ
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...GMS
AVIATION...BAJ/GMS
MARINE...BAJ/GMS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BAJ







000
FXUS61 KRNK 010541
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
141 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL STAY BETWEEN A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. DISTURBANCES PASSING BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL COMBINE WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO RESULT IN
PERIODIC CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO EARLY WEEK. A COLD
FRONT FINALLY ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 102 AM EDT MONDAY...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN POPS AND TEMPERATURES FOR THIS
MORNING. SHAPED POPS THIS MORNING TOWARDS A BLEND OF RAP AND HRRR.
MORE CHANGES LATER THIS MORNING.

AS OF 920 PM EDT SUNDAY...

MAIN AXIS OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE LIES FROM MD-CENTRAL WV. MAIN
UPPER IMPULSE THAT WAS OVER TN EARLIER HAS WEAKENED AS HAVE THE
SHOWERS UPSTREAM. OVERNIGHT NOT REALLY SEEING MUCH AS AIRMASS
STABILIZES. WILL KEEP THE HIGHER POPS OVER THE WV MTNS INTO FAR SW
VA...AS ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE EDGES CLOSER TO THE MTNS BY DAWN.
OTHERWISE EXPECT MID DECK OF CLOUDS TO REMAIN IN THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA WHILE THE EAST CLEARS SOME TOWARD MORNING. OVERALL FOG
THREAT IS PATCHY BUT COULD GET DENSE OUT EAST IF IT CLEARS OUT
ENOUGH. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH DAWN.


PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...


SHORTWAVES WILL BE EXITING BY EARLY MONDAY LEAVING THE REGION IN DECENT
WEST/SW FLOW ALOFT BUT WITHOUT MUCH FORCING WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
UPSTREAM 5H TROF/COLD FRONT TO THE NW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WHICH RESULTS IN DRYING ALOFT/LOWERING PWATS ESPCLY
WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND A LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MOST
GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS SHOW A LACK OF MUCH CONVECTION IN THIS REGIME WITH
ANY FOCUS PROVIDED BY OROGRAPHICS DUE TO WESTERLY CONVERGENCE AND
PERHAPS LATE DAY LOW LEVEL BACKING SE. THUS WILL LEAVE IN SOME LOW POPS
MAINLY WEST AS APPEARS A SUBTLE WAVE ALOFT COULD SNEAK THROUGH AROUND
THE TIME OF MAX HEATING. OTRW EXPECT WEAK LAPSES...LACK OF DEEP
INSTABILITY AND EASTERN DOWNSLOPE TO LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE WITH MUCH
OF THE DAY LIKELY DRY AFTER EARLY MID DECK/FOG ERODE.

COULD BE ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS SEEN IN A WHILE WITH 85H TEMPS PUSHING
+21C OVER DECENT DOWNSLOPE AND UNDER AMPLE AFTERNOON SUN. THIS WOULD
SUPPORT SOME MID 90S PIEDMONT...WITH UPPER 80S/LOW 90S BLUE RIDGE...
AND LOW/MID 80S WESTERN ELEVATIONS IF CAN GET A TEMP JUMP AFTER A WARM
START IN THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...

WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH...EXPECT TO HEAD
INTO LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. AS
SUCH...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN SOME OF
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EARLY MORNING...WHICH WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY
SHORTLY AFTER 9 AM.

DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. ACTIVITY WILL START OFF ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...SPOTTY
AT FIRST DUE TO THE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND THEN WILL SPREAD
EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT DURING THE EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY SHIFTS EAST. LIGHT WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
LIMIT INSTABILITY...AND BELIEVE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ISOLATED AND SHORT LIVED. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL THEN
DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WILL HAVE A WEAK BOUNDARY SITUATED ACROSS OUR
AREA...WHICH WILL EXHIBIT LITTLE MORE THAN A SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION
FROM ONE SIDE TO THE OTHER AS THE TRULY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
REMAIN WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA. REGARDLESS...THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER ANOTHER
ROUND OF SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BETTER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL BE FOUND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
460.

TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL BE WARMER THAN
NORMAL THANKS TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
LOOK FOR HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...
TO THE LOW/MID 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S WEST TO THE LOW 70S EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM SUNDAY...

A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY... PROVIDING THE LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS... MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES BUILDING NORTH...HELPING TO LIMIT INSTABILITY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...ALLOWING WINDS TO
SHIFT EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY...AND THEN SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE
EVENING.

AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...USHERING IN COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE.

TROPICAL AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. AS SUCH...EXPECT WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS...WITH
TEMPERATURES HOLDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL ARRIVE WITH THE COLD FRONT AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 127 AM EDT MONDAY...

A SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION.
A FEW SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
THE BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER WILL OCCUR AT BLF AND LWB. IN THE
WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE...THE OVERALL THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL FADE
WITH A SCT/BKN MID DECK LINGERING.

PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP THIS MORNING...BUT THE MID DECK SHOULD
LIMIT HOW FAR DOWN VSBYS DROP. WILL KEEP MOST TAF SITES NO WORSE
THAN MVFR THIS MORNING WITH LWB DROPPING OCCASIONALLY TO IFR
AFTER 10Z.

AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT...DEEP WESTERLY FLOW COMBINED
WITH LACK OF FOCUS AND DECENT MIXING SHOULD INHIBIT MUCH
CONVECTION TODAY ESPECIALLY IF EARLY MID DECK PERSISTS. THIS
SUPPORTS GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF LABOR DAY AFTER EARLY
LOW CLOUDS/FOG FADE WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION LIKELY.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.


EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY WITH SIMILAR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. FRONT SETTLES CLOSER TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHEN BETTER COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA IS
EXPECTED...AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTH THURSDAY WHERE THE BOUNDARY
STALLS. HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND SOUTHWARD
POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY AT THIS POINT. THUS APPEARS MAINLY VFR
ON TUESDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY IN MORE
ORGANIZED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION...AND MVFR/IFR UNDER
EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE VALLEYS AND WHERE EARLIER HEAVY RAIN
OCCURRED. FRONT WASHES OUT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY WITH
MORE DIURNAL NATURE SHOWERS AND STORMS...OTRW VFR.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...WILL
BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A PART HAS BEEN BACK-ORDERED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH
NEAR TERM...JH/KK/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...JH/KK/WP
EQUIPMENT...AMS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 010502
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
102 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL STAY BETWEEN A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. DISTURBANCES PASSING BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL COMBINE WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO RESULT IN
PERIODIC CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO EARLY WEEK. A COLD
FRONT FINALLY ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 102 AM EDT MONDAY...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN POPS AND TEMPERATURES FOR THIS
MORNING. SHAPED POPS THIS MORNING TOWARDS A BLEND OF RAP AND HRRR.
MORE CHANGES LATER THIS MORNING.

AS OF 920 PM EDT SUNDAY...

MAIN AXIS OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE LIES FROM MD-CENTRAL WV. MAIN
UPPER IMPULSE THAT WAS OVER TN EARLIER HAS WEAKENED AS HAVE THE
SHOWERS UPSTREAM. OVERNIGHT NOT REALLY SEEING MUCH AS AIRMASS
STABILIZES. WILL KEEP THE HIGHER POPS OVER THE WV MTNS INTO FAR SW
VA...AS ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE EDGES CLOSER TO THE MTNS BY DAWN.
OTHERWISE EXPECT MID DECK OF CLOUDS TO REMAIN IN THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA WHILE THE EAST CLEARS SOME TOWARD MORNING. OVERALL FOG
THREAT IS PATCHY BUT COULD GET DENSE OUT EAST IF IT CLEARS OUT
ENOUGH. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH DAWN.


PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...


SHORTWAVES WILL BE EXITING BY EARLY MONDAY LEAVING THE REGION IN DECENT
WEST/SW FLOW ALOFT BUT WITHOUT MUCH FORCING WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
UPSTREAM 5H TROF/COLD FRONT TO THE NW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WHICH RESULTS IN DRYING ALOFT/LOWERING PWATS ESPCLY
WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND A LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MOST
GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS SHOW A LACK OF MUCH CONVECTION IN THIS REGIME WITH
ANY FOCUS PROVIDED BY OROGRAPHICS DUE TO WESTERLY CONVERGENCE AND
PERHAPS LATE DAY LOW LEVEL BACKING SE. THUS WILL LEAVE IN SOME LOW POPS
MAINLY WEST AS APPEARS A SUBTLE WAVE ALOFT COULD SNEAK THROUGH AROUND
THE TIME OF MAX HEATING. OTRW EXPECT WEAK LAPSES...LACK OF DEEP
INSTABILITY AND EASTERN DOWNSLOPE TO LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE WITH MUCH
OF THE DAY LIKELY DRY AFTER EARLY MID DECK/FOG ERODE.

COULD BE ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS SEEN IN A WHILE WITH 85H TEMPS PUSHING
+21C OVER DECENT DOWNSLOPE AND UNDER AMPLE AFTERNOON SUN. THIS WOULD
SUPPORT SOME MID 90S PIEDMONT...WITH UPPER 80S/LOW 90S BLUE RIDGE...
AND LOW/MID 80S WESTERN ELEVATIONS IF CAN GET A TEMP JUMP AFTER A WARM
START IN THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...

WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH...EXPECT TO HEAD
INTO LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. AS
SUCH...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN SOME OF
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EARLY MORNING...WHICH WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY
SHORTLY AFTER 9 AM.

DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. ACTIVITY WILL START OFF ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...SPOTTY
AT FIRST DUE TO THE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND THEN WILL SPREAD
EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT DURING THE EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY SHIFTS EAST. LIGHT WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
LIMIT INSTABILITY...AND BELIEVE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ISOLATED AND SHORT LIVED. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL THEN
DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WILL HAVE A WEAK BOUNDARY SITUATED ACROSS OUR
AREA...WHICH WILL EXHIBIT LITTLE MORE THAN A SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION
FROM ONE SIDE TO THE OTHER AS THE TRULY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
REMAIN WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA. REGARDLESS...THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER ANOTHER
ROUND OF SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BETTER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL BE FOUND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
460.

TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL BE WARMER THAN
NORMAL THANKS TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
LOOK FOR HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...
TO THE LOW/MID 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S WEST TO THE LOW 70S EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM SUNDAY...

A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY... PROVIDING THE LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS... MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES BUILDING NORTH...HELPING TO LIMIT INSTABILITY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...ALLOWING WINDS TO
SHIFT EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY...AND THEN SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE
EVENING.

AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...USHERING IN COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE.

TROPICAL AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. AS SUCH...EXPECT WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS...WITH
TEMPERATURES HOLDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL ARRIVE WITH THE COLD FRONT AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 725 PM EDT SUNDAY...

TOOK SHOWERS OUT OF THE LWB TAF THIS EVENING. STILL CANNOT RULE
OUT A SHOWER INVOF BLF/LWB OVERNIGHT BUT THE CHANCES ARE LIMITED.

OTHERWISE...OVERNIGHT THE OVERALL THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL FADE WITH
A SCT/BKN MID DECK LINGERING. FOG CHANCES ARE GOOD BUT THE MID
DECK SHOULD LIMIT HOW FAR DOWN VSBYS DROP. WILL KEEP MOST TAF
SITES NO WORSE THAN MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH LWB DROPPING OCCASIONALLY
TO IFR AFTER 10Z.

LAST MID LEVEL WAVE WILL PASS TO THE NW BY EARLY MONDAY LEAVING
THE AREA IN BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT.
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH LACK OF FOCUS AND DECENT MIXING
SHOULD INHIBIT MUCH CONVECTION DURING MONDAY ESPCLY IF EARLY MID
DECK PERSISTS. THIS SUPPORTS GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY AFTER EARLY LOW CLOUDS/FOG FADE WITH ONLY ISOLATED
CONVECTION LIKELY.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY WITH SIMILAR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. FRONT SETTLES CLOSER TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHEN BETTER COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA IS
EXPECTED...AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTH THURSDAY WHERE THE BOUNDARY
STALLS. HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND SOUTHWARD
POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY AT THIS POINT. THUS APPEARS MAINLY VFR
ON TUESDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY IN MORE
ORGANIZED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION...AND MVFR/IFR UNDER
EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE VALLEYS AND WHERE EARLIER HEAVY RAIN
OCCURRED. FRONT WASHES OUT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY WITH
MORE DIURNAL NATURE SHOWERS AND STORMS...OTRW VFR.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...WILL
BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A PART HAS BEEN BACK-ORDERED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH
NEAR TERM...JH/KK/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...AMS/JH/WP
EQUIPMENT...AMS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 010502
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
102 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL STAY BETWEEN A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. DISTURBANCES PASSING BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL COMBINE WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO RESULT IN
PERIODIC CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO EARLY WEEK. A COLD
FRONT FINALLY ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 102 AM EDT MONDAY...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN POPS AND TEMPERATURES FOR THIS
MORNING. SHAPED POPS THIS MORNING TOWARDS A BLEND OF RAP AND HRRR.
MORE CHANGES LATER THIS MORNING.

AS OF 920 PM EDT SUNDAY...

MAIN AXIS OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE LIES FROM MD-CENTRAL WV. MAIN
UPPER IMPULSE THAT WAS OVER TN EARLIER HAS WEAKENED AS HAVE THE
SHOWERS UPSTREAM. OVERNIGHT NOT REALLY SEEING MUCH AS AIRMASS
STABILIZES. WILL KEEP THE HIGHER POPS OVER THE WV MTNS INTO FAR SW
VA...AS ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE EDGES CLOSER TO THE MTNS BY DAWN.
OTHERWISE EXPECT MID DECK OF CLOUDS TO REMAIN IN THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA WHILE THE EAST CLEARS SOME TOWARD MORNING. OVERALL FOG
THREAT IS PATCHY BUT COULD GET DENSE OUT EAST IF IT CLEARS OUT
ENOUGH. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH DAWN.


PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...


SHORTWAVES WILL BE EXITING BY EARLY MONDAY LEAVING THE REGION IN DECENT
WEST/SW FLOW ALOFT BUT WITHOUT MUCH FORCING WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
UPSTREAM 5H TROF/COLD FRONT TO THE NW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WHICH RESULTS IN DRYING ALOFT/LOWERING PWATS ESPCLY
WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND A LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MOST
GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS SHOW A LACK OF MUCH CONVECTION IN THIS REGIME WITH
ANY FOCUS PROVIDED BY OROGRAPHICS DUE TO WESTERLY CONVERGENCE AND
PERHAPS LATE DAY LOW LEVEL BACKING SE. THUS WILL LEAVE IN SOME LOW POPS
MAINLY WEST AS APPEARS A SUBTLE WAVE ALOFT COULD SNEAK THROUGH AROUND
THE TIME OF MAX HEATING. OTRW EXPECT WEAK LAPSES...LACK OF DEEP
INSTABILITY AND EASTERN DOWNSLOPE TO LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE WITH MUCH
OF THE DAY LIKELY DRY AFTER EARLY MID DECK/FOG ERODE.

COULD BE ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS SEEN IN A WHILE WITH 85H TEMPS PUSHING
+21C OVER DECENT DOWNSLOPE AND UNDER AMPLE AFTERNOON SUN. THIS WOULD
SUPPORT SOME MID 90S PIEDMONT...WITH UPPER 80S/LOW 90S BLUE RIDGE...
AND LOW/MID 80S WESTERN ELEVATIONS IF CAN GET A TEMP JUMP AFTER A WARM
START IN THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...

WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH...EXPECT TO HEAD
INTO LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. AS
SUCH...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN SOME OF
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EARLY MORNING...WHICH WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY
SHORTLY AFTER 9 AM.

DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. ACTIVITY WILL START OFF ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...SPOTTY
AT FIRST DUE TO THE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND THEN WILL SPREAD
EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT DURING THE EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY SHIFTS EAST. LIGHT WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
LIMIT INSTABILITY...AND BELIEVE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ISOLATED AND SHORT LIVED. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL THEN
DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WILL HAVE A WEAK BOUNDARY SITUATED ACROSS OUR
AREA...WHICH WILL EXHIBIT LITTLE MORE THAN A SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION
FROM ONE SIDE TO THE OTHER AS THE TRULY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
REMAIN WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA. REGARDLESS...THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER ANOTHER
ROUND OF SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BETTER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL BE FOUND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
460.

TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL BE WARMER THAN
NORMAL THANKS TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
LOOK FOR HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...
TO THE LOW/MID 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S WEST TO THE LOW 70S EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM SUNDAY...

A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY... PROVIDING THE LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS... MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES BUILDING NORTH...HELPING TO LIMIT INSTABILITY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...ALLOWING WINDS TO
SHIFT EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY...AND THEN SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE
EVENING.

AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...USHERING IN COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE.

TROPICAL AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. AS SUCH...EXPECT WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS...WITH
TEMPERATURES HOLDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL ARRIVE WITH THE COLD FRONT AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 725 PM EDT SUNDAY...

TOOK SHOWERS OUT OF THE LWB TAF THIS EVENING. STILL CANNOT RULE
OUT A SHOWER INVOF BLF/LWB OVERNIGHT BUT THE CHANCES ARE LIMITED.

OTHERWISE...OVERNIGHT THE OVERALL THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL FADE WITH
A SCT/BKN MID DECK LINGERING. FOG CHANCES ARE GOOD BUT THE MID
DECK SHOULD LIMIT HOW FAR DOWN VSBYS DROP. WILL KEEP MOST TAF
SITES NO WORSE THAN MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH LWB DROPPING OCCASIONALLY
TO IFR AFTER 10Z.

LAST MID LEVEL WAVE WILL PASS TO THE NW BY EARLY MONDAY LEAVING
THE AREA IN BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT.
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH LACK OF FOCUS AND DECENT MIXING
SHOULD INHIBIT MUCH CONVECTION DURING MONDAY ESPCLY IF EARLY MID
DECK PERSISTS. THIS SUPPORTS GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY AFTER EARLY LOW CLOUDS/FOG FADE WITH ONLY ISOLATED
CONVECTION LIKELY.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY WITH SIMILAR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. FRONT SETTLES CLOSER TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHEN BETTER COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA IS
EXPECTED...AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTH THURSDAY WHERE THE BOUNDARY
STALLS. HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND SOUTHWARD
POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY AT THIS POINT. THUS APPEARS MAINLY VFR
ON TUESDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY IN MORE
ORGANIZED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION...AND MVFR/IFR UNDER
EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE VALLEYS AND WHERE EARLIER HEAVY RAIN
OCCURRED. FRONT WASHES OUT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY WITH
MORE DIURNAL NATURE SHOWERS AND STORMS...OTRW VFR.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...WILL
BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A PART HAS BEEN BACK-ORDERED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH
NEAR TERM...JH/KK/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...AMS/JH/WP
EQUIPMENT...AMS



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010143
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
943 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF THIS WEEK. THIS RESULTS IN AN INCREASE OF HEAT AND
HUMIDITY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT DROPS TOWARD THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS EXPECTED...CONVECTION DSPTG ACROSS NWRN MOST CNTYS SINCE SUNSET
BUT CONVECTION STILL GOING STRONG ALONG SFC TROF MOVG EAST ACROSS
NRN VA. MODELS STILL MIXED ON JUST HOW MUCH LONGER AND HOW FAR
SOUTH THIS CONVECTION GETS...SO KEPT CHC POPS FROM THE NRN NECK
ON EAST TOWARD THE LWR MD & VA ERN SHORE AREAS THROUGH ERLY MORNING
HRS AS TROF SLOW TO MOVE EAST. OTW...PT TO MSTLY CLDY AND MUGGY.
LOWS 70-75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL LINGER JUST INLAND OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN GRT LAKES ON MONDAY...WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT...PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/QUEBEC TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. UPSHOT OF THIS IS THAT APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL REMAIN
LIMITED DURING THIS PERIOD AND THE AVAILABILITY OF A CONVECTIVE
TRIGGER WILL BE LACKING. GIVEN THIS...POPS WILL REMAIN NO HIGHER
THAN 20% MONDAY...CENTERED MAINLY ALONG AND E OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR...AS W/SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION OVER
THE PIEDMONT. MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE APPROACHING
ASSOCIATED (WEAK) COLD FRONT, WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE NW TUESDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH...LIKELY
WASHING OUT/DISSIPATING AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT. COULD SEE AN ISO SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOP ALONG DEVELOPING LEE
TROUGH TO THE WEST AND DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT (WEDNESDAY MORNING)...BUT OVERALL
PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

WHAT`S LEFT OF THE BOUNDARY/SFC TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY...AND LEFTOVER CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
DROP TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY...ALBEIT SLIGHTLY. HAVE UPPED CLOUD COVER
A BIT AND RETAINED A 20-30 POP FOR SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
AND STORMS ALONG THE THE TROUGH...WITH HIGHEST CHCS ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

THE MORE NOTABLE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE THE BUILDING HEAT.
THICKNESS TOOLS/850MB TEMPS/STATISTICAL GUIDANCE HAVE CONTINUED
THEIR UPWARD TREND, AND ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING HIGHS
SOLIDLY INTO THE 90S INLAND TOMORROW THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGHS
INCREMENTALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN
THE LOW 90S (UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST)...WITH MID 90S INLAND ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE
COASTLINES. WHILE NO RECORDS APPEAR IN JEOPARDY THROUGH THE
PERIOD, HIGHS OF THESE MAGNITUDES WOULD AVERAGE ABOUT +1.5 ST DEV
ABOVE SEASONAL MEANS...AND SHOULD BE THE WARMEST READINGS IN OUR
AREA SINCE JULY 23. LOWS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR WED NGT/THU...AFOREMENTIONED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WASHES OUT OVR/JUST S OF THE FA WHILE SFC HI PRES BLDS ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC. DID INCLUDE A SLGT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM OVR SRN
AREAS CLOSEST TO THE GREATEST MOISTURE AXIS AND FORCING...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE UPR 80S TO
LWR 90S UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LGT ONSHORE WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA. SFC HI PRES REMAINS
OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WEST.
MODELS AGREE ON TIMING THE FRONT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC OVR THE
WEEKEND...SO DID INTRODUCE A CHANCE (30%) FOR AFTN/EVENG
SHRAS/TSTMS. HI TEMPS FRI AND SAT WILL BE IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S
WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR FOR THE 00Z TAF PERIOD WITH ENOUGH MIXING TONIGHT TO
PRECLUDE MORE THAN JUST VERY LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT. BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PASS THROUGH KSBY TONIGHT. THUS INTRODUCED VCTS ~04Z AT
KSBY WITH FURTHER MONITORING NEEDED.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK.
THE RESULT IS ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS WEEK. SFC HI PRES WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS WEEK AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
APPROACHES FM THE W. EXPECT SLY WINDS THIS EVENG AVGG 10-15 KT OVR
THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND AND 15-20 KT OVR CSTL WTRS. WAVES OVR THE BAY
WILL BE 1-3 FT WITH 2-4 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
INTO MON WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. WITH RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS...COULD SEE SOME WIND GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KT OVR THE BAY BOTH
EVENGS AS FLOW CHANNELS UP THE BAY...FOR NOW WILL CAP AT 15 KT.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA AND WEAKENS...LEADING TO LGT/VRB WINDS BY
WED/WED NGT AND SEAS AOB 3 FT. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HEADLINES ATTM
DUE TO A LACK OF CAA/SURGE POST FRONTAL. HI PRES RETURNS WED NGT
THRU THE END OF THE WEEK AS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...DAP/WRS
MARINE...MAS






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010143
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
943 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF THIS WEEK. THIS RESULTS IN AN INCREASE OF HEAT AND
HUMIDITY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT DROPS TOWARD THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS EXPECTED...CONVECTION DSPTG ACROSS NWRN MOST CNTYS SINCE SUNSET
BUT CONVECTION STILL GOING STRONG ALONG SFC TROF MOVG EAST ACROSS
NRN VA. MODELS STILL MIXED ON JUST HOW MUCH LONGER AND HOW FAR
SOUTH THIS CONVECTION GETS...SO KEPT CHC POPS FROM THE NRN NECK
ON EAST TOWARD THE LWR MD & VA ERN SHORE AREAS THROUGH ERLY MORNING
HRS AS TROF SLOW TO MOVE EAST. OTW...PT TO MSTLY CLDY AND MUGGY.
LOWS 70-75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL LINGER JUST INLAND OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN GRT LAKES ON MONDAY...WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT...PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/QUEBEC TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. UPSHOT OF THIS IS THAT APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL REMAIN
LIMITED DURING THIS PERIOD AND THE AVAILABILITY OF A CONVECTIVE
TRIGGER WILL BE LACKING. GIVEN THIS...POPS WILL REMAIN NO HIGHER
THAN 20% MONDAY...CENTERED MAINLY ALONG AND E OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR...AS W/SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION OVER
THE PIEDMONT. MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE APPROACHING
ASSOCIATED (WEAK) COLD FRONT, WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE NW TUESDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH...LIKELY
WASHING OUT/DISSIPATING AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT. COULD SEE AN ISO SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOP ALONG DEVELOPING LEE
TROUGH TO THE WEST AND DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT (WEDNESDAY MORNING)...BUT OVERALL
PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

WHAT`S LEFT OF THE BOUNDARY/SFC TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY...AND LEFTOVER CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
DROP TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY...ALBEIT SLIGHTLY. HAVE UPPED CLOUD COVER
A BIT AND RETAINED A 20-30 POP FOR SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
AND STORMS ALONG THE THE TROUGH...WITH HIGHEST CHCS ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

THE MORE NOTABLE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE THE BUILDING HEAT.
THICKNESS TOOLS/850MB TEMPS/STATISTICAL GUIDANCE HAVE CONTINUED
THEIR UPWARD TREND, AND ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING HIGHS
SOLIDLY INTO THE 90S INLAND TOMORROW THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGHS
INCREMENTALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN
THE LOW 90S (UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST)...WITH MID 90S INLAND ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE
COASTLINES. WHILE NO RECORDS APPEAR IN JEOPARDY THROUGH THE
PERIOD, HIGHS OF THESE MAGNITUDES WOULD AVERAGE ABOUT +1.5 ST DEV
ABOVE SEASONAL MEANS...AND SHOULD BE THE WARMEST READINGS IN OUR
AREA SINCE JULY 23. LOWS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR WED NGT/THU...AFOREMENTIONED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WASHES OUT OVR/JUST S OF THE FA WHILE SFC HI PRES BLDS ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC. DID INCLUDE A SLGT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM OVR SRN
AREAS CLOSEST TO THE GREATEST MOISTURE AXIS AND FORCING...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE UPR 80S TO
LWR 90S UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LGT ONSHORE WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA. SFC HI PRES REMAINS
OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WEST.
MODELS AGREE ON TIMING THE FRONT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC OVR THE
WEEKEND...SO DID INTRODUCE A CHANCE (30%) FOR AFTN/EVENG
SHRAS/TSTMS. HI TEMPS FRI AND SAT WILL BE IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S
WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR FOR THE 00Z TAF PERIOD WITH ENOUGH MIXING TONIGHT TO
PRECLUDE MORE THAN JUST VERY LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT. BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PASS THROUGH KSBY TONIGHT. THUS INTRODUCED VCTS ~04Z AT
KSBY WITH FURTHER MONITORING NEEDED.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK.
THE RESULT IS ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS WEEK. SFC HI PRES WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS WEEK AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
APPROACHES FM THE W. EXPECT SLY WINDS THIS EVENG AVGG 10-15 KT OVR
THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND AND 15-20 KT OVR CSTL WTRS. WAVES OVR THE BAY
WILL BE 1-3 FT WITH 2-4 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
INTO MON WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. WITH RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS...COULD SEE SOME WIND GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KT OVR THE BAY BOTH
EVENGS AS FLOW CHANNELS UP THE BAY...FOR NOW WILL CAP AT 15 KT.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA AND WEAKENS...LEADING TO LGT/VRB WINDS BY
WED/WED NGT AND SEAS AOB 3 FT. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HEADLINES ATTM
DUE TO A LACK OF CAA/SURGE POST FRONTAL. HI PRES RETURNS WED NGT
THRU THE END OF THE WEEK AS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...DAP/WRS
MARINE...MAS







000
FXUS61 KRNK 010136
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
936 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL STAY BETWEEN A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. DISTURBANCES PASSING BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL COMBINE WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO RESULT IN
PERIODIC CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO EARLY WEEK. A COLD
FRONT FINALLY ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 920 PM EDT SUNDAY...

MAIN AXIS OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE LIES FROM MD-CENTRAL WV. MAIN
UPPER IMPULSE THAT WAS OVER TN EARLIER HAS WEAKENED AS HAVE THE
SHOWERS UPSTREAM. OVERNIGHT NOT REALLY SEEING MUCH AS AIRMASS
STABILIZES. WILL KEEP THE HIGHER POPS OVER THE WV MTNS INTO FAR SW
VA...AS ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE EDGES CLOSER TO THE MTNS BY DAWN.
OTHERWISE EXPECT MID DECK OF CLOUDS TO REMAIN IN THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA WHILE THE EAST CLEARS SOME TOWARD MORNING. OVERALL FOG
THREAT IS PATCHY BUT COULD GET DENSE OUT EAST IF IT CLEARS OUT
ENOUGH. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH DAWN.


PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...


SHORTWAVES WILL BE EXITING BY EARLY MONDAY LEAVING THE REGION IN DECENT
WEST/SW FLOW ALOFT BUT WITHOUT MUCH FORCING WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
UPSTREAM 5H TROF/COLD FRONT TO THE NW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WHICH RESULTS IN DRYING ALOFT/LOWERING PWATS ESPCLY
WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND A LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MOST
GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS SHOW A LACK OF MUCH CONVECTION IN THIS REGIME WITH
ANY FOCUS PROVIDED BY OROGRAPHICS DUE TO WESTERLY CONVERGENCE AND
PERHAPS LATE DAY LOW LEVEL BACKING SE. THUS WILL LEAVE IN SOME LOW POPS
MAINLY WEST AS APPEARS A SUBTLE WAVE ALOFT COULD SNEAK THROUGH AROUND
THE TIME OF MAX HEATING. OTRW EXPECT WEAK LAPSES...LACK OF DEEP
INSTABILITY AND EASTERN DOWNSLOPE TO LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE WITH MUCH
OF THE DAY LIKELY DRY AFTER EARLY MID DECK/FOG ERODE.

COULD BE ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS SEEN IN A WHILE WITH 85H TEMPS PUSHING
+21C OVER DECENT DOWNSLOPE AND UNDER AMPLE AFTERNOON SUN. THIS WOULD
SUPPORT SOME MID 90S PIEDMONT...WITH UPPER 80S/LOW 90S BLUE RIDGE...
AND LOW/MID 80S WESTERN ELEVATIONS IF CAN GET A TEMP JUMP AFTER A WARM
START IN THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...

WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH...EXPECT TO HEAD
INTO LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. AS
SUCH...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN SOME OF
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EARLY MORNING...WHICH WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY
SHORTLY AFTER 9 AM.

DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. ACTIVITY WILL START OFF ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...SPOTTY
AT FIRST DUE TO THE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND THEN WILL SPREAD
EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT DURING THE EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY SHIFTS EAST. LIGHT WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
LIMIT INSTABILITY...AND BELIEVE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ISOLATED AND SHORT LIVED. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL THEN
DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WILL HAVE A WEAK BOUNDARY SITUATED ACROSS OUR
AREA...WHICH WILL EXHIBIT LITTLE MORE THAN A SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION
FROM ONE SIDE TO THE OTHER AS THE TRULY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
REMAIN WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA. REGARDLESS...THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER ANOTHER
ROUND OF SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BETTER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL BE FOUND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
460.

TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL BE WARMER THAN
NORMAL THANKS TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
LOOK FOR HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...
TO THE LOW/MID 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S WEST TO THE LOW 70S EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM SUNDAY...

A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY... PROVIDING THE LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS... MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES BUILDING NORTH...HELPING TO LIMIT INSTABILITY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...ALLOWING WINDS TO
SHIFT EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY...AND THEN SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE
EVENING.

AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...USHERING IN COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE.

TROPICAL AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. AS SUCH...EXPECT WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS...WITH
TEMPERATURES HOLDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL ARRIVE WITH THE COLD FRONT AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 725 PM EDT SUNDAY...

TOOK SHOWERS OUT OF THE LWB TAF THIS EVENING. STILL CANNOT RULE
OUT A SHOWER INVOF BLF/LWB OVERNIGHT BUT THE CHANCES ARE LIMITED.

OTHERWISE...OVERNIGHT THE OVERALL THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL FADE WITH
A SCT/BKN MID DECK LINGERING. FOG CHANCES ARE GOOD BUT THE MID
DECK SHOULD LIMIT HOW FAR DOWN VSBYS DROP. WILL KEEP MOST TAF
SITES NO WORSE THAN MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH LWB DROPPING OCCASIONALLY
TO IFR AFTER 10Z.

LAST MID LEVEL WAVE WILL PASS TO THE NW BY EARLY MONDAY LEAVING
THE AREA IN BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT.
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH LACK OF FOCUS AND DECENT MIXING
SHOULD INHIBIT MUCH CONVECTION DURING MONDAY ESPCLY IF EARLY MID
DECK PERSISTS. THIS SUPPORTS GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY AFTER EARLY LOW CLOUDS/FOG FADE WITH ONLY ISOLATED
CONVECTION LIKELY.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY WITH SIMILAR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. FRONT SETTLES CLOSER TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHEN BETTER COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA IS
EXPECTED...AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTH THURSDAY WHERE THE BOUNDARY
STALLS. HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND SOUTHWARD
POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY AT THIS POINT. THUS APPEARS MAINLY VFR
ON TUESDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY IN MORE
ORGANIZED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION...AND MVFR/IFR UNDER
EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE VALLEYS AND WHERE EARLIER HEAVY RAIN
OCCURRED. FRONT WASHES OUT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY WITH
MORE DIURNAL NATURE SHOWERS AND STORMS...OTRW VFR.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...WILL
BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A PART HAS BEEN BACK-ORDERED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...AMS/JH/WP
EQUIPMENT...AMS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 010136
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
936 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL STAY BETWEEN A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. DISTURBANCES PASSING BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL COMBINE WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO RESULT IN
PERIODIC CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO EARLY WEEK. A COLD
FRONT FINALLY ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 920 PM EDT SUNDAY...

MAIN AXIS OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE LIES FROM MD-CENTRAL WV. MAIN
UPPER IMPULSE THAT WAS OVER TN EARLIER HAS WEAKENED AS HAVE THE
SHOWERS UPSTREAM. OVERNIGHT NOT REALLY SEEING MUCH AS AIRMASS
STABILIZES. WILL KEEP THE HIGHER POPS OVER THE WV MTNS INTO FAR SW
VA...AS ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE EDGES CLOSER TO THE MTNS BY DAWN.
OTHERWISE EXPECT MID DECK OF CLOUDS TO REMAIN IN THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA WHILE THE EAST CLEARS SOME TOWARD MORNING. OVERALL FOG
THREAT IS PATCHY BUT COULD GET DENSE OUT EAST IF IT CLEARS OUT
ENOUGH. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH DAWN.


PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...


SHORTWAVES WILL BE EXITING BY EARLY MONDAY LEAVING THE REGION IN DECENT
WEST/SW FLOW ALOFT BUT WITHOUT MUCH FORCING WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
UPSTREAM 5H TROF/COLD FRONT TO THE NW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WHICH RESULTS IN DRYING ALOFT/LOWERING PWATS ESPCLY
WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND A LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MOST
GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS SHOW A LACK OF MUCH CONVECTION IN THIS REGIME WITH
ANY FOCUS PROVIDED BY OROGRAPHICS DUE TO WESTERLY CONVERGENCE AND
PERHAPS LATE DAY LOW LEVEL BACKING SE. THUS WILL LEAVE IN SOME LOW POPS
MAINLY WEST AS APPEARS A SUBTLE WAVE ALOFT COULD SNEAK THROUGH AROUND
THE TIME OF MAX HEATING. OTRW EXPECT WEAK LAPSES...LACK OF DEEP
INSTABILITY AND EASTERN DOWNSLOPE TO LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE WITH MUCH
OF THE DAY LIKELY DRY AFTER EARLY MID DECK/FOG ERODE.

COULD BE ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS SEEN IN A WHILE WITH 85H TEMPS PUSHING
+21C OVER DECENT DOWNSLOPE AND UNDER AMPLE AFTERNOON SUN. THIS WOULD
SUPPORT SOME MID 90S PIEDMONT...WITH UPPER 80S/LOW 90S BLUE RIDGE...
AND LOW/MID 80S WESTERN ELEVATIONS IF CAN GET A TEMP JUMP AFTER A WARM
START IN THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...

WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH...EXPECT TO HEAD
INTO LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. AS
SUCH...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN SOME OF
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EARLY MORNING...WHICH WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY
SHORTLY AFTER 9 AM.

DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. ACTIVITY WILL START OFF ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...SPOTTY
AT FIRST DUE TO THE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND THEN WILL SPREAD
EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT DURING THE EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY SHIFTS EAST. LIGHT WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
LIMIT INSTABILITY...AND BELIEVE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ISOLATED AND SHORT LIVED. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL THEN
DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WILL HAVE A WEAK BOUNDARY SITUATED ACROSS OUR
AREA...WHICH WILL EXHIBIT LITTLE MORE THAN A SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION
FROM ONE SIDE TO THE OTHER AS THE TRULY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
REMAIN WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA. REGARDLESS...THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER ANOTHER
ROUND OF SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BETTER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL BE FOUND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
460.

TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL BE WARMER THAN
NORMAL THANKS TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
LOOK FOR HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...
TO THE LOW/MID 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S WEST TO THE LOW 70S EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM SUNDAY...

A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY... PROVIDING THE LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS... MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES BUILDING NORTH...HELPING TO LIMIT INSTABILITY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...ALLOWING WINDS TO
SHIFT EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY...AND THEN SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE
EVENING.

AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...USHERING IN COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE.

TROPICAL AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. AS SUCH...EXPECT WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS...WITH
TEMPERATURES HOLDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL ARRIVE WITH THE COLD FRONT AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 725 PM EDT SUNDAY...

TOOK SHOWERS OUT OF THE LWB TAF THIS EVENING. STILL CANNOT RULE
OUT A SHOWER INVOF BLF/LWB OVERNIGHT BUT THE CHANCES ARE LIMITED.

OTHERWISE...OVERNIGHT THE OVERALL THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL FADE WITH
A SCT/BKN MID DECK LINGERING. FOG CHANCES ARE GOOD BUT THE MID
DECK SHOULD LIMIT HOW FAR DOWN VSBYS DROP. WILL KEEP MOST TAF
SITES NO WORSE THAN MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH LWB DROPPING OCCASIONALLY
TO IFR AFTER 10Z.

LAST MID LEVEL WAVE WILL PASS TO THE NW BY EARLY MONDAY LEAVING
THE AREA IN BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT.
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH LACK OF FOCUS AND DECENT MIXING
SHOULD INHIBIT MUCH CONVECTION DURING MONDAY ESPCLY IF EARLY MID
DECK PERSISTS. THIS SUPPORTS GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY AFTER EARLY LOW CLOUDS/FOG FADE WITH ONLY ISOLATED
CONVECTION LIKELY.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY WITH SIMILAR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. FRONT SETTLES CLOSER TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHEN BETTER COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA IS
EXPECTED...AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTH THURSDAY WHERE THE BOUNDARY
STALLS. HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND SOUTHWARD
POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY AT THIS POINT. THUS APPEARS MAINLY VFR
ON TUESDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY IN MORE
ORGANIZED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION...AND MVFR/IFR UNDER
EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE VALLEYS AND WHERE EARLIER HEAVY RAIN
OCCURRED. FRONT WASHES OUT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY WITH
MORE DIURNAL NATURE SHOWERS AND STORMS...OTRW VFR.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...WILL
BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A PART HAS BEEN BACK-ORDERED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...AMS/JH/WP
EQUIPMENT...AMS



000
FXUS61 KLWX 010049
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
849 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN FOR THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
RGNL RADAR COMPOSITE DEPICTS NMRS SHRA/TSRA FM OMH/OKV THRU DCA TO
NAK. ACTIVITY ATTM SUPPORTED BY A TAIL OF A PVA LOBE WHICH WL BE
CROSSING THE AREA THRU 06Z. RAFL RATES STILL AOA 1 INCH/HR...AND
00Z LWX RAOB CONTAINS 2.2 IN PWAT. HWVR...W/ THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AS WELL AS ENERGY SPENT FM PRVS STORMS...CAPE VALUES
HOVERING ARND 1000 J/KG PER MESO ANALY. /OUR RAOB ONLY CONTAINS
ABT 600 J/KG...W/ 125 J/KG CINH/. THEREFORE...XPCT A CONTD DECLINE
IN TERMS OF STRONG/PSBL SVR TSTMS. INSTEAD...WE SHUD BE LOOKING AT
JUST HVY RAINERS FOR THE REST OF THE ENVG.

IN TERMS OF HOW THAT MAY PLAY OUT...HRRR HAS BEEN PROVIDING A
FAIRLY REASONABLE DEPICTION FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST 6 HRS. WITH
THAT IN MIND...WUD THINK THAT THE CRRDR RECEIVING SHRA/STORMS WL
CONT TO DO SO THRU AT LEAST MIDNGT. AFT THAT...CNVCTN WL BE MORE
SCT IN NATURE...BUT STILL IN THE SAME ZONE.

TEMPS DROPPED QUICKLY FM W OF IAD TO NEAR NAK/BWI THX TO ERLR
TSRA. BUT...THOSE LOCATIONS NEAR DEWPTS ATTM...SO ADDTL COOLING
NOT XPCTD. USED LAMP GDNC TO RETOOL TEMPS...BUT IMPACT ON MIN-T
FCST MINIMAL.

CONSIDERING SATURATION AND WET GRND WUD BE CONCERNED ABT FOG...BUT
STILL HV A FAIRLY SOLID CLD DECK ACRS MOST OF THE AREA...WHICH WL
IMPEDE IN ITS FORMATION. FOR THE TIME BEING...AM JUST DEPICTING
PATCHY FOG IN CLIMO FAVORED VLYS. IF THERES ANY CLRG OR
LIFTING...THEN THE STRIPE FM HEF/IAD TO BWI/NAK WL NEED TO BE
REASSESSED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WL STILL HV LEE TROF AND AN UNSTBL AMS MON. HWVR...FORCING FOR
PCPN WL BE LACKING. STILL XPCT SCT STORM DVLPMNT DURING THE
MIDDAY...WHICH WL BE DROPPING INTO THE LEE TROF DURING THE AFTN.

THE RELATIVE LACK OF ACTIVITY AND CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST-TO-
EAST WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE U80S AND SOME L90S
FOR THE AREA ON MON AFTN...W/ DEWPOINTS STANDING PAT IN THE
U60S/L70S - ANOTHER MUGGY DAY FOR THE AREA.

WEAK RIDGING CROSSES THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...MAKING FOR A REPRIEVE IN THUNDERSTORMS FOR 12-18 HRS. WITH
THE BERMUDA HIGH IN PLACE...EXPECT TUESDAY TO HAVE THE HIGHEST
TEMPERATURE DAY SINCE JULY. MAX TEMPS LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE TUESDAY AND CROSSES THAT NIGHT.
WITH PLENTY OF ENERGY FROM THE HOT DAY...EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER...PARTICULAR FOR WRN ZONES THAT ARE PROGGED TO GET
THE EVENING ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CWA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ALLOWING A COLD FRONT
FROM THE WEST TO ENTER THE CWA FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH PVA IS WEAK...
STALLED BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE WILL SUPPLY ACTIVE WEATHER INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS ACRS THE TERMINALS ATTM. TSRA HAS MOSTLY PUSHED S/E OF
THE TERMINALS. STILL MAY SEE A FEW MORE SHRA...BUT DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ADDTL SUBSTANTIVE RESTRICTIONS IN THE NEAR TERM.

CONSIDERING SATURATION AND WET GRND WUD BE CONCERNED ABT FOG...BUT
STILL HV A FAIRLY SOLID CLD DECK ACRS MOST OF THE AREA...WHICH WL
IMPEDE IN ITS FORMATION. FOR THE TIME BEING...WL HOLD METROS AT
VFR AND KEEP PREDAWN MVFR AT ONLY CHO/MRB. IF THERES ANY CLRG OR
LIFTING...THEN WL NEED TO REASSESS.

SLY WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO MON...ALONG W/ A FEW HIT/MISS SHOWERS
AS WELL THRU MON EVE. WL BE KEEPING VFR CONDS IN THE TAFS.
HWVR...FLGT RESTRICTIONS PSBL W/IN SHRA/TSRA.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE/VFR TUESDAY ON A HOT DAY (MAX TEMPS IN THE MID
90S). SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE/VFR OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL
MORNING FOG MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY FLOW ACRS THE MARINE AREA HAS BEEN INTERRUPTED BY CNVCTN.
CASE IN POINT...TPLM2 WNDS HV SWITCHED ARND TO NLY. HWVR...STRONGER
STORMS MAY HV HIER WND GUSTS...AND WL BE COVERED BY SMW/S. CRRNT
THINKING IS TO RIDE OUT GOING SCA FOR THE MAIN CHANNEL OF THE BAY
THRU ITS 11PM EXPIRATION.

SLY FLOW PTTN CONTS INTO MON. GDNC CONTS TO SUGGEST THAT WNDS SHUD
BE LIGHTER THAN TDA.

SUB SCA SWLY FLOW MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT
BRINGS WLY FLOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DEPARTURES ON MOST OF THE BAY STILL HOVERING AROUND 1 FT.
LWTV2/SLIM2 STILL ONLY 3/4 FT ABOVE NORMAL. LOOKS LIKE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT CROSSED NEAR WASH DC HAS PUSHED SOME OF THE
WATER OUT OF THE UPR TIDAL POTOMAC...BUT THAT SHOULD CHANGE AS THE
TIDE ROLLS BACK IN AGAIN. ANNAPOLIS ON THE CUSP OF EXCEEDING
MINOR CRITERIA ATTM...AND SVRL OTHER SITES WL REACH CAUTION STAGE.

AS SLY FLOW LIGHTENS MON...GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT DEPARTURES
WILL EASE SLIGHTLY. WITH THAT IN MIND...THE NEXT TIDE CYCLE /MON
AM/...WHICH IS THE LOWER ASTRONOMICALLY ANYWAY...SHOULDNT RESULT
IN ADDTL INUNDATION. OF COURSE...WE/LL CONT TO MONITOR.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ532>534-543.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS/GMS
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...HTS/BAJ
MARINE...HTS/BAJ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS





000
FXUS61 KLWX 010049
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
849 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN FOR THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
RGNL RADAR COMPOSITE DEPICTS NMRS SHRA/TSRA FM OMH/OKV THRU DCA TO
NAK. ACTIVITY ATTM SUPPORTED BY A TAIL OF A PVA LOBE WHICH WL BE
CROSSING THE AREA THRU 06Z. RAFL RATES STILL AOA 1 INCH/HR...AND
00Z LWX RAOB CONTAINS 2.2 IN PWAT. HWVR...W/ THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AS WELL AS ENERGY SPENT FM PRVS STORMS...CAPE VALUES
HOVERING ARND 1000 J/KG PER MESO ANALY. /OUR RAOB ONLY CONTAINS
ABT 600 J/KG...W/ 125 J/KG CINH/. THEREFORE...XPCT A CONTD DECLINE
IN TERMS OF STRONG/PSBL SVR TSTMS. INSTEAD...WE SHUD BE LOOKING AT
JUST HVY RAINERS FOR THE REST OF THE ENVG.

IN TERMS OF HOW THAT MAY PLAY OUT...HRRR HAS BEEN PROVIDING A
FAIRLY REASONABLE DEPICTION FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST 6 HRS. WITH
THAT IN MIND...WUD THINK THAT THE CRRDR RECEIVING SHRA/STORMS WL
CONT TO DO SO THRU AT LEAST MIDNGT. AFT THAT...CNVCTN WL BE MORE
SCT IN NATURE...BUT STILL IN THE SAME ZONE.

TEMPS DROPPED QUICKLY FM W OF IAD TO NEAR NAK/BWI THX TO ERLR
TSRA. BUT...THOSE LOCATIONS NEAR DEWPTS ATTM...SO ADDTL COOLING
NOT XPCTD. USED LAMP GDNC TO RETOOL TEMPS...BUT IMPACT ON MIN-T
FCST MINIMAL.

CONSIDERING SATURATION AND WET GRND WUD BE CONCERNED ABT FOG...BUT
STILL HV A FAIRLY SOLID CLD DECK ACRS MOST OF THE AREA...WHICH WL
IMPEDE IN ITS FORMATION. FOR THE TIME BEING...AM JUST DEPICTING
PATCHY FOG IN CLIMO FAVORED VLYS. IF THERES ANY CLRG OR
LIFTING...THEN THE STRIPE FM HEF/IAD TO BWI/NAK WL NEED TO BE
REASSESSED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WL STILL HV LEE TROF AND AN UNSTBL AMS MON. HWVR...FORCING FOR
PCPN WL BE LACKING. STILL XPCT SCT STORM DVLPMNT DURING THE
MIDDAY...WHICH WL BE DROPPING INTO THE LEE TROF DURING THE AFTN.

THE RELATIVE LACK OF ACTIVITY AND CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST-TO-
EAST WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE U80S AND SOME L90S
FOR THE AREA ON MON AFTN...W/ DEWPOINTS STANDING PAT IN THE
U60S/L70S - ANOTHER MUGGY DAY FOR THE AREA.

WEAK RIDGING CROSSES THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...MAKING FOR A REPRIEVE IN THUNDERSTORMS FOR 12-18 HRS. WITH
THE BERMUDA HIGH IN PLACE...EXPECT TUESDAY TO HAVE THE HIGHEST
TEMPERATURE DAY SINCE JULY. MAX TEMPS LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE TUESDAY AND CROSSES THAT NIGHT.
WITH PLENTY OF ENERGY FROM THE HOT DAY...EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER...PARTICULAR FOR WRN ZONES THAT ARE PROGGED TO GET
THE EVENING ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CWA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ALLOWING A COLD FRONT
FROM THE WEST TO ENTER THE CWA FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH PVA IS WEAK...
STALLED BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE WILL SUPPLY ACTIVE WEATHER INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS ACRS THE TERMINALS ATTM. TSRA HAS MOSTLY PUSHED S/E OF
THE TERMINALS. STILL MAY SEE A FEW MORE SHRA...BUT DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ADDTL SUBSTANTIVE RESTRICTIONS IN THE NEAR TERM.

CONSIDERING SATURATION AND WET GRND WUD BE CONCERNED ABT FOG...BUT
STILL HV A FAIRLY SOLID CLD DECK ACRS MOST OF THE AREA...WHICH WL
IMPEDE IN ITS FORMATION. FOR THE TIME BEING...WL HOLD METROS AT
VFR AND KEEP PREDAWN MVFR AT ONLY CHO/MRB. IF THERES ANY CLRG OR
LIFTING...THEN WL NEED TO REASSESS.

SLY WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO MON...ALONG W/ A FEW HIT/MISS SHOWERS
AS WELL THRU MON EVE. WL BE KEEPING VFR CONDS IN THE TAFS.
HWVR...FLGT RESTRICTIONS PSBL W/IN SHRA/TSRA.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE/VFR TUESDAY ON A HOT DAY (MAX TEMPS IN THE MID
90S). SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE/VFR OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL
MORNING FOG MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY FLOW ACRS THE MARINE AREA HAS BEEN INTERRUPTED BY CNVCTN.
CASE IN POINT...TPLM2 WNDS HV SWITCHED ARND TO NLY. HWVR...STRONGER
STORMS MAY HV HIER WND GUSTS...AND WL BE COVERED BY SMW/S. CRRNT
THINKING IS TO RIDE OUT GOING SCA FOR THE MAIN CHANNEL OF THE BAY
THRU ITS 11PM EXPIRATION.

SLY FLOW PTTN CONTS INTO MON. GDNC CONTS TO SUGGEST THAT WNDS SHUD
BE LIGHTER THAN TDA.

SUB SCA SWLY FLOW MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT
BRINGS WLY FLOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DEPARTURES ON MOST OF THE BAY STILL HOVERING AROUND 1 FT.
LWTV2/SLIM2 STILL ONLY 3/4 FT ABOVE NORMAL. LOOKS LIKE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT CROSSED NEAR WASH DC HAS PUSHED SOME OF THE
WATER OUT OF THE UPR TIDAL POTOMAC...BUT THAT SHOULD CHANGE AS THE
TIDE ROLLS BACK IN AGAIN. ANNAPOLIS ON THE CUSP OF EXCEEDING
MINOR CRITERIA ATTM...AND SVRL OTHER SITES WL REACH CAUTION STAGE.

AS SLY FLOW LIGHTENS MON...GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT DEPARTURES
WILL EASE SLIGHTLY. WITH THAT IN MIND...THE NEXT TIDE CYCLE /MON
AM/...WHICH IS THE LOWER ASTRONOMICALLY ANYWAY...SHOULDNT RESULT
IN ADDTL INUNDATION. OF COURSE...WE/LL CONT TO MONITOR.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ532>534-543.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS/GMS
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...HTS/BAJ
MARINE...HTS/BAJ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010033
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
833 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF THIS WEEK. THIS RESULTS IN AN INCREASE OF HEAT AND
HUMIDITY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT DROPS TOWARD THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE RATHER INTERESTING AS THEY BASICALLY
DISSIPATE THE CONVECTION APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AFTER SUNSET
DUE TO THE CAP NOTED OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...DATA ALSO SHOWS THE
LINE OF TSTRMS CRNTLY ACROSS NRN VA REMAINING IN TACT WHILE SLOWLY
DRIFTING SE AND CROSSING THE LWR MD AND VA ERN SHORE / NRN NECK
AREAS LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THUS...WENT AHEAD AND
BUMPED UP THE POPS ACROSS THOSE AREAS (30-505) WITH THIS UPDATE.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS NEXT FEW HRS AND ADJUST FCST
AS NECESSARY. OTW...M CLR TO PT CLDY AND MUGGY ONCE AGAIN. LOWS
70-75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL LINGER JUST INLAND OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN GRT LAKES ON MONDAY...WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT...PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/QUEBEC TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. UPSHOT OF THIS IS THAT APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL REMAIN
LIMITED DURING THIS PERIOD AND THE AVAILABILITY OF A CONVECTIVE
TRIGGER WILL BE LACKING. GIVEN THIS...POPS WILL REMAIN NO HIGHER
THAN 20% MONDAY...CENTERED MAINLY ALONG AND E OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR...AS W/SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION OVER
THE PIEDMONT. MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE APPROACHING
ASSOCIATED (WEAK) COLD FRONT, WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE NW TUESDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH...LIKELY
WASHING OUT/DISSIPATING AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT. COULD SEE AN ISO SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOP ALONG DEVELOPING LEE
TROUGH TO THE WEST AND DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT (WEDNESDAY MORNING)...BUT OVERALL
PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

WHAT`S LEFT OF THE BOUNDARY/SFC TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY...AND LEFTOVER CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
DROP TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY...ALBEIT SLIGHTLY. HAVE UPPED CLOUD COVER
A BIT AND RETAINED A 20-30 POP FOR SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
AND STORMS ALONG THE THE TROUGH...WITH HIGHEST CHCS ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

THE MORE NOTABLE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE THE BUILDING HEAT.
THICKNESS TOOLS/850MB TEMPS/STATISTICAL GUIDANCE HAVE CONTINUED
THEIR UPWARD TREND, AND ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING HIGHS
SOLIDLY INTO THE 90S INLAND TOMORROW THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGHS
INCREMENTALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN
THE LOW 90S (UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST)...WITH MID 90S INLAND ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE
COASTLINES. WHILE NO RECORDS APPEAR IN JEOPARDY THROUGH THE
PERIOD, HIGHS OF THESE MAGNITUDES WOULD AVERAGE ABOUT +1.5 ST DEV
ABOVE SEASONAL MEANS...AND SHOULD BE THE WARMEST READINGS IN OUR
AREA SINCE JULY 23. LOWS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR WED NGT/THU...AFOREMENTIONED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WASHES OUT OVR/JUST S OF THE FA WHILE SFC HI PRES BLDS ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC. DID INCLUDE A SLGT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM OVR SRN
AREAS CLOSEST TO THE GREATEST MOISTURE AXIS AND FORCING...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE UPR 80S TO
LWR 90S UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LGT ONSHORE WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA. SFC HI PRES REMAINS
OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WEST.
MODELS AGREE ON TIMING THE FRONT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC OVR THE
WEEKEND...SO DID INTRODUCE A CHANCE (30%) FOR AFTN/EVENG
SHRAS/TSTMS. HI TEMPS FRI AND SAT WILL BE IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S
WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR FOR THE 00Z TAF PERIOD WITH ENOUGH MIXING TONIGHT TO
PRECLUDE MORE THAN JUST VERY LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT. BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PASS THROUGH KSBY TONIGHT. THUS INTRODUCED VCTS ~04Z AT
KSBY WITH FURTHER MONITORING NEEDED.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK.
THE RESULT IS ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS WEEK. SFC HI PRES WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS WEEK AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
APPROACHES FM THE W. EXPECT SLY WINDS THIS EVENG AVGG 10-15 KT OVR
THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND AND 15-20 KT OVR CSTL WTRS. WAVES OVR THE BAY
WILL BE 1-3 FT WITH 2-4 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
INTO MON WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. WITH RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS...COULD SEE SOME WIND GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KT OVR THE BAY BOTH
EVENGS AS FLOW CHANNELS UP THE BAY...FOR NOW WILL CAP AT 15 KT.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA AND WEAKENS...LEADING TO LGT/VRB WINDS BY
WED/WED NGT AND SEAS AOB 3 FT. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HEADLINES ATTM
DUE TO A LACK OF CAA/SURGE POST FRONTAL. HI PRES RETURNS WED NGT
THRU THE END OF THE WEEK AS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...DAP/WRS
MARINE...MAS







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010033
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
833 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF THIS WEEK. THIS RESULTS IN AN INCREASE OF HEAT AND
HUMIDITY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT DROPS TOWARD THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE RATHER INTERESTING AS THEY BASICALLY
DISSIPATE THE CONVECTION APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AFTER SUNSET
DUE TO THE CAP NOTED OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...DATA ALSO SHOWS THE
LINE OF TSTRMS CRNTLY ACROSS NRN VA REMAINING IN TACT WHILE SLOWLY
DRIFTING SE AND CROSSING THE LWR MD AND VA ERN SHORE / NRN NECK
AREAS LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THUS...WENT AHEAD AND
BUMPED UP THE POPS ACROSS THOSE AREAS (30-505) WITH THIS UPDATE.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS NEXT FEW HRS AND ADJUST FCST
AS NECESSARY. OTW...M CLR TO PT CLDY AND MUGGY ONCE AGAIN. LOWS
70-75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL LINGER JUST INLAND OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN GRT LAKES ON MONDAY...WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT...PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/QUEBEC TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. UPSHOT OF THIS IS THAT APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL REMAIN
LIMITED DURING THIS PERIOD AND THE AVAILABILITY OF A CONVECTIVE
TRIGGER WILL BE LACKING. GIVEN THIS...POPS WILL REMAIN NO HIGHER
THAN 20% MONDAY...CENTERED MAINLY ALONG AND E OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR...AS W/SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION OVER
THE PIEDMONT. MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE APPROACHING
ASSOCIATED (WEAK) COLD FRONT, WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE NW TUESDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH...LIKELY
WASHING OUT/DISSIPATING AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT. COULD SEE AN ISO SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOP ALONG DEVELOPING LEE
TROUGH TO THE WEST AND DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT (WEDNESDAY MORNING)...BUT OVERALL
PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

WHAT`S LEFT OF THE BOUNDARY/SFC TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY...AND LEFTOVER CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
DROP TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY...ALBEIT SLIGHTLY. HAVE UPPED CLOUD COVER
A BIT AND RETAINED A 20-30 POP FOR SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
AND STORMS ALONG THE THE TROUGH...WITH HIGHEST CHCS ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

THE MORE NOTABLE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE THE BUILDING HEAT.
THICKNESS TOOLS/850MB TEMPS/STATISTICAL GUIDANCE HAVE CONTINUED
THEIR UPWARD TREND, AND ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING HIGHS
SOLIDLY INTO THE 90S INLAND TOMORROW THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGHS
INCREMENTALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN
THE LOW 90S (UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST)...WITH MID 90S INLAND ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE
COASTLINES. WHILE NO RECORDS APPEAR IN JEOPARDY THROUGH THE
PERIOD, HIGHS OF THESE MAGNITUDES WOULD AVERAGE ABOUT +1.5 ST DEV
ABOVE SEASONAL MEANS...AND SHOULD BE THE WARMEST READINGS IN OUR
AREA SINCE JULY 23. LOWS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR WED NGT/THU...AFOREMENTIONED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WASHES OUT OVR/JUST S OF THE FA WHILE SFC HI PRES BLDS ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC. DID INCLUDE A SLGT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM OVR SRN
AREAS CLOSEST TO THE GREATEST MOISTURE AXIS AND FORCING...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE UPR 80S TO
LWR 90S UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LGT ONSHORE WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA. SFC HI PRES REMAINS
OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WEST.
MODELS AGREE ON TIMING THE FRONT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC OVR THE
WEEKEND...SO DID INTRODUCE A CHANCE (30%) FOR AFTN/EVENG
SHRAS/TSTMS. HI TEMPS FRI AND SAT WILL BE IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S
WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR FOR THE 00Z TAF PERIOD WITH ENOUGH MIXING TONIGHT TO
PRECLUDE MORE THAN JUST VERY LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT. BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PASS THROUGH KSBY TONIGHT. THUS INTRODUCED VCTS ~04Z AT
KSBY WITH FURTHER MONITORING NEEDED.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK.
THE RESULT IS ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS WEEK. SFC HI PRES WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS WEEK AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
APPROACHES FM THE W. EXPECT SLY WINDS THIS EVENG AVGG 10-15 KT OVR
THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND AND 15-20 KT OVR CSTL WTRS. WAVES OVR THE BAY
WILL BE 1-3 FT WITH 2-4 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
INTO MON WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. WITH RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS...COULD SEE SOME WIND GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KT OVR THE BAY BOTH
EVENGS AS FLOW CHANNELS UP THE BAY...FOR NOW WILL CAP AT 15 KT.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA AND WEAKENS...LEADING TO LGT/VRB WINDS BY
WED/WED NGT AND SEAS AOB 3 FT. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HEADLINES ATTM
DUE TO A LACK OF CAA/SURGE POST FRONTAL. HI PRES RETURNS WED NGT
THRU THE END OF THE WEEK AS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...DAP/WRS
MARINE...MAS






000
FXUS61 KRNK 312352
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
752 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL STAY BETWEEN A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. DISTURBANCES PASSING BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL COMBINE WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO RESULT IN
PERIODIC CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO EARLY WEEK. A COLD
FRONT FINALLY ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 720 PM EDT SUNDAY...

LOOKING AT WEAKENING CONVECTION THIS EVENING OVER THE EAST AND
WEST. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE THAT IS OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU
THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NE INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
AND BLUE RIDGE BY MIDNIGHT. STORMS OVER KNOXVILLE HAVE SHOWN A
WEAKENING TREND AS HAD THE SHOWERS IN ERN KY/WRN WV. STILL THINK
THERE MAY BE SOME MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN THE FAR WEST LATE THIS
EVENING SO WILL KEEP HIGHER POPS THERE...BUT LOWER POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE EAST OF THE WV/VA BORDER.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...


SHORTWAVES WILL BE EXITING BY EARLY MONDAY LEAVING THE REGION IN DECENT
WEST/SW FLOW ALOFT BUT WITHOUT MUCH FORCING WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
UPSTREAM 5H TROF/COLD FRONT TO THE NW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WHICH RESULTS IN DRYING ALOFT/LOWERING PWATS ESPCLY
WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND A LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MOST
GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS SHOW A LACK OF MUCH CONVECTION IN THIS REGIME WITH
ANY FOCUS PROVIDED BY OROGRAPHICS DUE TO WESTERLY CONVERGENCE AND
PERHAPS LATE DAY LOW LEVEL BACKING SE. THUS WILL LEAVE IN SOME LOW POPS
MAINLY WEST AS APPEARS A SUBTLE WAVE ALOFT COULD SNEAK THROUGH AROUND
THE TIME OF MAX HEATING. OTRW EXPECT WEAK LAPSES...LACK OF DEEP
INSTABILITY AND EASTERN DOWNSLOPE TO LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE WITH MUCH
OF THE DAY LIKELY DRY AFTER EARLY MID DECK/FOG ERODE.

COULD BE ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS SEEN IN A WHILE WITH 85H TEMPS PUSHING
+21C OVER DECENT DOWNSLOPE AND UNDER AMPLE AFTERNOON SUN. THIS WOULD
SUPPORT SOME MID 90S PIEDMONT...WITH UPPER 80S/LOW 90S BLUE RIDGE...
AND LOW/MID 80S WESTERN ELEVATIONS IF CAN GET A TEMP JUMP AFTER A WARM
START IN THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...

WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH...EXPECT TO HEAD
INTO LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. AS
SUCH...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN SOME OF
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EARLY MORNING...WHICH WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY
SHORTLY AFTER 9 AM.

DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. ACTIVITY WILL START OFF ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...SPOTTY
AT FIRST DUE TO THE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND THEN WILL SPREAD
EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT DURING THE EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY SHIFTS EAST. LIGHT WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
LIMIT INSTABILITY...AND BELIEVE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ISOLATED AND SHORT LIVED. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL THEN
DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WILL HAVE A WEAK BOUNDARY SITUATED ACROSS OUR
AREA...WHICH WILL EXHIBIT LITTLE MORE THAN A SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION
FROM ONE SIDE TO THE OTHER AS THE TRULY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
REMAIN WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA. REGARDLESS...THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER ANOTHER
ROUND OF SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BETTER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL BE FOUND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
460.

TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL BE WARMER THAN
NORMAL THANKS TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
LOOK FOR HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...
TO THE LOW/MID 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S WEST TO THE LOW 70S EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM SUNDAY...

A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY... PROVIDING THE LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS... MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES BUILDING NORTH...HELPING TO LIMIT INSTABILITY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...ALLOWING WINDS TO
SHIFT EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY...AND THEN SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE
EVENING.

AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...USHERING IN COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE.

TROPICAL AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. AS SUCH...EXPECT WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS...WITH
TEMPERATURES HOLDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL ARRIVE WITH THE COLD FRONT AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 725 PM EDT SUNDAY...

NOT REALLY EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS AT TAF SITES
EXCEPT LWB. HRRR IS CATCHING ONTO SHOWERS FROM FAR SW VA INTO ERN
KY/WV MOVING NE TO LWB BY 0130Z. SHOULD SEE A SMALL PERIOD OF
SHOWERS HERE...COULD REDUCE VSBY TO 5SM.

OTHERWISE...OVERNIGHT THE OVERALL THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL FADE WITH
A SCT/BKN MID DECK LINGERING. FOG CHANCES ARE GOOD BUT THE MID
DECK SHOULD LIMIT HOW FAR DOWN VSBYS DROP. WILL KEEP MOST TAF
SITES NO WORSE THAN MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH LWB DROPPING OCCASIONALLY
TO IFR AFTER 10Z.

LAST MID LEVEL WAVE WILL PASS TO THE NW BY EARLY MONDAY LEAVING
THE AREA IN BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT.
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH LACK OF FOCUS AND DECENT MIXING
SHOULD INHIBIT MUCH CONVECTION DURING MONDAY ESPCLY IF EARLY MID
DECK PERSISTS. THIS SUPPORTS GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY AFTER EARLY LOW CLOUDS/FOG FADE WITH ONLY ISOLATED
CONVECTION LIKELY.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY WITH SIMILAR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. FRONT SETTLES CLOSER TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHEN BETTER COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA IS
EXPECTED...AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTH THURSDAY WHERE THE BOUNDARY
STALLS. HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND SOUTHWARD
POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY AT THIS POINT. THUS APPEARS MAINLY VFR
ON TUESDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY IN MORE
ORGANIZED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION...AND MVFR/IFR UNDER
EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE VALLEYS AND WHERE EARLIER HEAVY RAIN
OCCURRED. FRONT WASHES OUT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY WITH
MORE DIURNAL NATURE SHOWERS AND STORMS...OTRW VFR.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...WILL
BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A PART HAS BEEN BACK-ORDERED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...AMS/JH/WP
EQUIPMENT...AMS



000
FXUS61 KRNK 312352
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
752 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL STAY BETWEEN A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. DISTURBANCES PASSING BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL COMBINE WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO RESULT IN
PERIODIC CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO EARLY WEEK. A COLD
FRONT FINALLY ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 720 PM EDT SUNDAY...

LOOKING AT WEAKENING CONVECTION THIS EVENING OVER THE EAST AND
WEST. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE THAT IS OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU
THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NE INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
AND BLUE RIDGE BY MIDNIGHT. STORMS OVER KNOXVILLE HAVE SHOWN A
WEAKENING TREND AS HAD THE SHOWERS IN ERN KY/WRN WV. STILL THINK
THERE MAY BE SOME MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN THE FAR WEST LATE THIS
EVENING SO WILL KEEP HIGHER POPS THERE...BUT LOWER POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE EAST OF THE WV/VA BORDER.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...


SHORTWAVES WILL BE EXITING BY EARLY MONDAY LEAVING THE REGION IN DECENT
WEST/SW FLOW ALOFT BUT WITHOUT MUCH FORCING WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
UPSTREAM 5H TROF/COLD FRONT TO THE NW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WHICH RESULTS IN DRYING ALOFT/LOWERING PWATS ESPCLY
WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND A LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MOST
GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS SHOW A LACK OF MUCH CONVECTION IN THIS REGIME WITH
ANY FOCUS PROVIDED BY OROGRAPHICS DUE TO WESTERLY CONVERGENCE AND
PERHAPS LATE DAY LOW LEVEL BACKING SE. THUS WILL LEAVE IN SOME LOW POPS
MAINLY WEST AS APPEARS A SUBTLE WAVE ALOFT COULD SNEAK THROUGH AROUND
THE TIME OF MAX HEATING. OTRW EXPECT WEAK LAPSES...LACK OF DEEP
INSTABILITY AND EASTERN DOWNSLOPE TO LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE WITH MUCH
OF THE DAY LIKELY DRY AFTER EARLY MID DECK/FOG ERODE.

COULD BE ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS SEEN IN A WHILE WITH 85H TEMPS PUSHING
+21C OVER DECENT DOWNSLOPE AND UNDER AMPLE AFTERNOON SUN. THIS WOULD
SUPPORT SOME MID 90S PIEDMONT...WITH UPPER 80S/LOW 90S BLUE RIDGE...
AND LOW/MID 80S WESTERN ELEVATIONS IF CAN GET A TEMP JUMP AFTER A WARM
START IN THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...

WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH...EXPECT TO HEAD
INTO LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. AS
SUCH...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN SOME OF
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EARLY MORNING...WHICH WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY
SHORTLY AFTER 9 AM.

DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. ACTIVITY WILL START OFF ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...SPOTTY
AT FIRST DUE TO THE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND THEN WILL SPREAD
EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT DURING THE EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY SHIFTS EAST. LIGHT WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
LIMIT INSTABILITY...AND BELIEVE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ISOLATED AND SHORT LIVED. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL THEN
DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WILL HAVE A WEAK BOUNDARY SITUATED ACROSS OUR
AREA...WHICH WILL EXHIBIT LITTLE MORE THAN A SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION
FROM ONE SIDE TO THE OTHER AS THE TRULY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
REMAIN WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA. REGARDLESS...THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER ANOTHER
ROUND OF SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BETTER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL BE FOUND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
460.

TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL BE WARMER THAN
NORMAL THANKS TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
LOOK FOR HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...
TO THE LOW/MID 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S WEST TO THE LOW 70S EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM SUNDAY...

A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY... PROVIDING THE LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS... MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES BUILDING NORTH...HELPING TO LIMIT INSTABILITY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...ALLOWING WINDS TO
SHIFT EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY...AND THEN SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE
EVENING.

AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...USHERING IN COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE.

TROPICAL AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. AS SUCH...EXPECT WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS...WITH
TEMPERATURES HOLDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL ARRIVE WITH THE COLD FRONT AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 725 PM EDT SUNDAY...

NOT REALLY EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS AT TAF SITES
EXCEPT LWB. HRRR IS CATCHING ONTO SHOWERS FROM FAR SW VA INTO ERN
KY/WV MOVING NE TO LWB BY 0130Z. SHOULD SEE A SMALL PERIOD OF
SHOWERS HERE...COULD REDUCE VSBY TO 5SM.

OTHERWISE...OVERNIGHT THE OVERALL THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL FADE WITH
A SCT/BKN MID DECK LINGERING. FOG CHANCES ARE GOOD BUT THE MID
DECK SHOULD LIMIT HOW FAR DOWN VSBYS DROP. WILL KEEP MOST TAF
SITES NO WORSE THAN MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH LWB DROPPING OCCASIONALLY
TO IFR AFTER 10Z.

LAST MID LEVEL WAVE WILL PASS TO THE NW BY EARLY MONDAY LEAVING
THE AREA IN BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT.
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH LACK OF FOCUS AND DECENT MIXING
SHOULD INHIBIT MUCH CONVECTION DURING MONDAY ESPCLY IF EARLY MID
DECK PERSISTS. THIS SUPPORTS GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY AFTER EARLY LOW CLOUDS/FOG FADE WITH ONLY ISOLATED
CONVECTION LIKELY.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY WITH SIMILAR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. FRONT SETTLES CLOSER TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHEN BETTER COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA IS
EXPECTED...AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTH THURSDAY WHERE THE BOUNDARY
STALLS. HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND SOUTHWARD
POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY AT THIS POINT. THUS APPEARS MAINLY VFR
ON TUESDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY IN MORE
ORGANIZED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION...AND MVFR/IFR UNDER
EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE VALLEYS AND WHERE EARLIER HEAVY RAIN
OCCURRED. FRONT WASHES OUT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY WITH
MORE DIURNAL NATURE SHOWERS AND STORMS...OTRW VFR.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...WILL
BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A PART HAS BEEN BACK-ORDERED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...AMS/JH/WP
EQUIPMENT...AMS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 312317
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
717 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF THIS WEEK. THIS RESULTS IN AN INCREASE OF HEAT AND
HUMIDITY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT DROPS TOWARD THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE RATHER INTERESTING AS THEY BASICALLY
DISSIPATE THE CONVECTION APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AFTER SUNSET
DUE TO THE CAP NOTED OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...DATA ALSO SHOWS THE
LINE OF TSTRMS CRNTLY ACROSS NRN VA REMAINING IN TACT WHILE SLOWLY
DRIFTING SE AND CROSSING THE LWR MD AND VA ERN SHORE / NRN NECK
AREAS LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THUS...WENT AHEAD AND
BUMPED UP THE POPS ACROSS THOSE AREAS (30-505) WITH THIS UPDATE.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS NEXT FEW HRS AND ADJUST FCST
AS NECESSARY. OTW...M CLR TO PT CLDY AND MUGGY ONCE AGAIN. LOWS
70-75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL LINGER JUST INLAND OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN GRT LAKES ON MONDAY...WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT...PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/QUEBEC TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. UPSHOT OF THIS IS THAT APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL REMAIN
LIMITED DURING THIS PERIOD AND THE AVAILABILITY OF A CONVECTIVE
TRIGGER WILL BE LACKING. GIVEN THIS...POPS WILL REMAIN NO HIGHER
THAN 20% MONDAY...CENTERED MAINLY ALONG AND E OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR...AS W/SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION OVER
THE PIEDMONT. MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE APPROACHING
ASSOCIATED (WEAK) COLD FRONT, WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE NW TUESDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH...LIKELY
WASHING OUT/DISSIPATING AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT. COULD SEE AN ISO SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOP ALONG DEVELOPING LEE
TROUGH TO THE WEST AND DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT (WEDNESDAY MORNING)...BUT OVERALL
PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

WHAT`S LEFT OF THE BOUNDARY/SFC TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY...AND LEFTOVER CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
DROP TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY...ALBEIT SLIGHTLY. HAVE UPPED CLOUD COVER
A BIT AND RETAINED A 20-30 POP FOR SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
AND STORMS ALONG THE THE TROUGH...WITH HIGHEST CHCS ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

THE MORE NOTABLE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE THE BUILDING HEAT.
THICKNESS TOOLS/850MB TEMPS/STATISTICAL GUIDANCE HAVE CONTINUED
THEIR UPWARD TREND, AND ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING HIGHS
SOLIDLY INTO THE 90S INLAND TOMORROW THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGHS
INCREMENTALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN
THE LOW 90S (UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST)...WITH MID 90S INLAND ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE
COASTLINES. WHILE NO RECORDS APPEAR IN JEOPARDY THROUGH THE
PERIOD, HIGHS OF THESE MAGNITUDES WOULD AVERAGE ABOUT +1.5 ST DEV
ABOVE SEASONAL MEANS...AND SHOULD BE THE WARMEST READINGS IN OUR
AREA SINCE JULY 23. LOWS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR WED NGT/THU...AFOREMENTIONED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WASHES OUT OVR/JUST S OF THE FA WHILE SFC HI PRES BLDS ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC. DID INCLUDE A SLGT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM OVR SRN
AREAS CLOSEST TO THE GREATEST MOISTURE AXIS AND FORCING...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE UPR 80S TO
LWR 90S UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LGT ONSHORE WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA. SFC HI PRES REMAINS
OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WEST.
MODELS AGREE ON TIMING THE FRONT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC OVR THE
WEEKEND...SO DID INTRODUCE A CHANCE (30%) FOR AFTN/EVENG
SHRAS/TSTMS. HI TEMPS FRI AND SAT WILL BE IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S
WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT 18Z...WITH SCT CU DEVELOPING...AND A
FAIR AMOUNT MID- HIGH CLOUDS. SLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND
10-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTINESS NOTED AT KRIC AND KSBY. ANTICIPATE
ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND
WEST OF KRIC....AND POSSIBLY THE MD PORTION OF THE DELMARVA.
ATTM...HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT FORECAST DRY...AS COVERAGE WILL BE
LIMITED...AND CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING WHETHER
ANY TSTMS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE PIEDMONT/CENTRAL DELMARVA. SHOULD
BE ENOUGH MIXING TONIGHT TO PRECLUDE MORE THAN JUST VERY LIGHT FOG
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...NAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME STRATUS AFTER 06Z AT KECG...WITH CEILINGS EXPECTED TO BE JUST
ABOVE IFR THRESHOLDS.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK.
THE RESULT IS ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURSDAY AS THE
FRONT STALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS WEEK. SFC HI PRES WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS WEEK AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
APPROACHES FM THE W. EXPECT SLY WINDS THIS EVENG AVGG 10-15 KT OVR
THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND AND 15-20 KT OVR CSTL WTRS. WAVES OVR THE BAY
WILL BE 1-3 FT WITH 2-4 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
INTO MON WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. WITH RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS...COULD SEE SOME WIND GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KT OVR THE BAY BOTH
EVENGS AS FLOW CHANNELS UP THE BAY...FOR NOW WILL CAP AT 15 KT.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA AND WEAKENS...LEADING TO LGT/VRB WINDS BY
WED/WED NGT AND SEAS AOB 3 FT. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HEADLINES ATTM
DUE TO A LACK OF CAA/SURGE POST FRONTAL. HI PRES RETURNS WED NGT
THRU THE END OF THE WEEK AS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...MAS






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 312317
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
717 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF THIS WEEK. THIS RESULTS IN AN INCREASE OF HEAT AND
HUMIDITY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT DROPS TOWARD THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE RATHER INTERESTING AS THEY BASICALLY
DISSIPATE THE CONVECTION APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AFTER SUNSET
DUE TO THE CAP NOTED OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...DATA ALSO SHOWS THE
LINE OF TSTRMS CRNTLY ACROSS NRN VA REMAINING IN TACT WHILE SLOWLY
DRIFTING SE AND CROSSING THE LWR MD AND VA ERN SHORE / NRN NECK
AREAS LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THUS...WENT AHEAD AND
BUMPED UP THE POPS ACROSS THOSE AREAS (30-505) WITH THIS UPDATE.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS NEXT FEW HRS AND ADJUST FCST
AS NECESSARY. OTW...M CLR TO PT CLDY AND MUGGY ONCE AGAIN. LOWS
70-75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL LINGER JUST INLAND OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN GRT LAKES ON MONDAY...WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT...PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/QUEBEC TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. UPSHOT OF THIS IS THAT APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL REMAIN
LIMITED DURING THIS PERIOD AND THE AVAILABILITY OF A CONVECTIVE
TRIGGER WILL BE LACKING. GIVEN THIS...POPS WILL REMAIN NO HIGHER
THAN 20% MONDAY...CENTERED MAINLY ALONG AND E OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR...AS W/SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION OVER
THE PIEDMONT. MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE APPROACHING
ASSOCIATED (WEAK) COLD FRONT, WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE NW TUESDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH...LIKELY
WASHING OUT/DISSIPATING AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT. COULD SEE AN ISO SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOP ALONG DEVELOPING LEE
TROUGH TO THE WEST AND DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT (WEDNESDAY MORNING)...BUT OVERALL
PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

WHAT`S LEFT OF THE BOUNDARY/SFC TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY...AND LEFTOVER CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
DROP TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY...ALBEIT SLIGHTLY. HAVE UPPED CLOUD COVER
A BIT AND RETAINED A 20-30 POP FOR SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
AND STORMS ALONG THE THE TROUGH...WITH HIGHEST CHCS ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

THE MORE NOTABLE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE THE BUILDING HEAT.
THICKNESS TOOLS/850MB TEMPS/STATISTICAL GUIDANCE HAVE CONTINUED
THEIR UPWARD TREND, AND ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING HIGHS
SOLIDLY INTO THE 90S INLAND TOMORROW THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGHS
INCREMENTALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN
THE LOW 90S (UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST)...WITH MID 90S INLAND ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE
COASTLINES. WHILE NO RECORDS APPEAR IN JEOPARDY THROUGH THE
PERIOD, HIGHS OF THESE MAGNITUDES WOULD AVERAGE ABOUT +1.5 ST DEV
ABOVE SEASONAL MEANS...AND SHOULD BE THE WARMEST READINGS IN OUR
AREA SINCE JULY 23. LOWS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR WED NGT/THU...AFOREMENTIONED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WASHES OUT OVR/JUST S OF THE FA WHILE SFC HI PRES BLDS ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC. DID INCLUDE A SLGT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM OVR SRN
AREAS CLOSEST TO THE GREATEST MOISTURE AXIS AND FORCING...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE UPR 80S TO
LWR 90S UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LGT ONSHORE WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA. SFC HI PRES REMAINS
OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WEST.
MODELS AGREE ON TIMING THE FRONT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC OVR THE
WEEKEND...SO DID INTRODUCE A CHANCE (30%) FOR AFTN/EVENG
SHRAS/TSTMS. HI TEMPS FRI AND SAT WILL BE IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S
WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT 18Z...WITH SCT CU DEVELOPING...AND A
FAIR AMOUNT MID- HIGH CLOUDS. SLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND
10-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTINESS NOTED AT KRIC AND KSBY. ANTICIPATE
ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND
WEST OF KRIC....AND POSSIBLY THE MD PORTION OF THE DELMARVA.
ATTM...HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT FORECAST DRY...AS COVERAGE WILL BE
LIMITED...AND CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING WHETHER
ANY TSTMS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE PIEDMONT/CENTRAL DELMARVA. SHOULD
BE ENOUGH MIXING TONIGHT TO PRECLUDE MORE THAN JUST VERY LIGHT FOG
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...NAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME STRATUS AFTER 06Z AT KECG...WITH CEILINGS EXPECTED TO BE JUST
ABOVE IFR THRESHOLDS.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK.
THE RESULT IS ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURSDAY AS THE
FRONT STALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS WEEK. SFC HI PRES WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS WEEK AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
APPROACHES FM THE W. EXPECT SLY WINDS THIS EVENG AVGG 10-15 KT OVR
THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND AND 15-20 KT OVR CSTL WTRS. WAVES OVR THE BAY
WILL BE 1-3 FT WITH 2-4 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
INTO MON WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. WITH RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS...COULD SEE SOME WIND GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KT OVR THE BAY BOTH
EVENGS AS FLOW CHANNELS UP THE BAY...FOR NOW WILL CAP AT 15 KT.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA AND WEAKENS...LEADING TO LGT/VRB WINDS BY
WED/WED NGT AND SEAS AOB 3 FT. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HEADLINES ATTM
DUE TO A LACK OF CAA/SURGE POST FRONTAL. HI PRES RETURNS WED NGT
THRU THE END OF THE WEEK AS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...MAS







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 312000
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
400 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF THIS WEEK. THIS RESULTS IN AN INCREASE OF HEAT AND
HUMIDITY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT DROPS TOWARD THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT ORIENTED ALONG AND JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE, A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WAS PUSHING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES TOWARDS SE ONTARIO. THE SE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING DEEP SSW FLOW
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA.

STUCK WITH 20-30% RAIN CHANCES LATE AFTN INTO THIS EVENING OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA FROM THE PIEDMONT TO THE LOWER MD
EASTERN SHORE. BEST FORCING WILL SLOWLY PUSH FROM BLUE RIDGE TO
NORTHERN VA/SE PA AND INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TNGT. ALSO
EXTENDED SLIGHT POP INTO LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING MAINLY
OVER THE EASTERN SHORE AND NORTHERN NECK. WE COULD SEE A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THESE AREAS AS TRAILING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
CURRENTLY OVER THE OHIO RVR VALLEY PIVOTS ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, A MILD AND MUGGY EVENING WITH EARLY MORNING
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL LINGER JUST INLAND OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN GRT LAKES ON MONDAY...WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT...PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/QUEBEC TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. UPSHOT OF THIS IS THAT APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL REMAIN
LIMITED DURING THIS PERIOD AND THE AVAILABILITY OF A CONVECTIVE
TRIGGER WILL BE LACKING. GIVEN THIS...POPS WILL REMAIN NO HIGHER
THAN 20% MONDAY...CENTERED MAINLY ALONG AND E OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR...AS W/SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION OVER
THE PIEDMONT. MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE APPROACHING
ASSOCIATED (WEAK) COLD FRONT, WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE NW TUESDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH...LIKELY
WASHING OUT/DISSIPATING AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT. COULD SEE AN ISO SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOP ALONG DEVELOPING LEE
TROUGH TO THE WEST AND DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT (WEDNESDAY MORNING)...BUT OVERALL
PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

WHAT`S LEFT OF THE BOUNDARY/SFC TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY...AND LEFTOVER CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
DROP TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY...ALBEIT SLIGHTLY. HAVE UPPED CLOUD COVER
A BIT AND RETAINED A 20-30 POP FOR SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
AND STORMS ALONG THE THE TROUGH...WITH HIGHEST CHCS ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

THE MORE NOTABLE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE THE BUILDING HEAT.
THICKNESS TOOLS/850MB TEMPS/STATISTICAL GUIDANCE HAVE CONTINUED
THEIR UPWARD TREND, AND ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING HIGHS
SOLIDLY INTO THE 90S INLAND TOMORROW THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGHS
INCREMENTALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN
THE LOW 90S (UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST)...WITH MID 90S INLAND ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE
COASTLINES. WHILE NO RECORDS APPEAR IN JEOPARDY THROUGH THE
PERIOD, HIGHS OF THESE MAGNITUDES WOULD AVERAGE ABOUT +1.5 ST DEV
ABOVE SEASONAL MEANS...AND SHOULD BE THE WARMEST READINGS IN OUR
AREA SINCE JULY 23. LOWS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR WED NGT/THU...AFOREMENTIONED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WASHES OUT OVR/JUST S OF THE FA WHILE SFC HI PRES BLDS ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC. DID INCLUDE A SLGT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM OVR SRN
AREAS CLOSEST TO THE GREATEST MOISTURE AXIS AND FORCING...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE UPR 80S TO
LWR 90S UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LGT ONSHORE WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA. SFC HI PRES REMAINS
OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WEST.
MODELS AGREE ON TIMING THE FRONT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC OVR THE
WEEKEND...SO DID INTRODUCE A CHANCE (30%) FOR AFTN/EVENG
SHRAS/TSTMS. HI TEMPS FRI AND SAT WILL BE IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S
WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT 18Z...WITH SCT CU DEVELOPING...AND A
FAIR AMOUNT MID- HIGH CLOUDS. SLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND
10-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTINESS NOTED AT KRIC AND KSBY. ANTICIPATE
ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND
WEST OF KRIC....AND POSSIBLY THE MD PORTION OF THE DELMARVA.
ATTM...HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT FORECAST DRY...AS COVERAGE WILL BE
LIMITED...AND CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING WHETHER
ANY TSTMS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE PIEDMONT/CENTRAL DELMARVA. SHOULD
BE ENOUGH MIXING TONIGHT TO PRECLUDE MORE THAN JUST VERY LIGHT FOG
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...NAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME STRATUS AFTER 06Z AT KECG...WITH CEILINGS EXPECTED TO BE JUST
ABOVE IFR THRESHOLDS.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK.
THE RESULT IS ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURSDAY AS THE
FRONT STALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS WEEK. SFC HI PRES WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS WEEK AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
APPROACHES FM THE W. EXPECT SLY WINDS THIS EVENG AVGG 10-15 KT OVR
THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND AND 15-20 KT OVR CSTL WTRS. WAVES OVR THE BAY
WILL BE 1-3 FT WITH 2-4 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
INTO MON WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. WITH RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS...COULD SEE SOME WIND GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KT OVR THE BAY BOTH
EVENGS AS FLOW CHANNELS UP THE BAY...FOR NOW WILL CAP AT 15 KT.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA AND WEAKENS...LEADING TO LGT/VRB WINDS BY
WED/WED NGT AND SEAS AOB 3 FT. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HEADLINES ATTM
DUE TO A LACK OF CAA/SURGE POST FRONTAL. HI PRES RETURNS WED NGT
THRU THE END OF THE WEEK AS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...MAS







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 312000
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
400 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF THIS WEEK. THIS RESULTS IN AN INCREASE OF HEAT AND
HUMIDITY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT DROPS TOWARD THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT ORIENTED ALONG AND JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE, A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WAS PUSHING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES TOWARDS SE ONTARIO. THE SE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING DEEP SSW FLOW
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA.

STUCK WITH 20-30% RAIN CHANCES LATE AFTN INTO THIS EVENING OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA FROM THE PIEDMONT TO THE LOWER MD
EASTERN SHORE. BEST FORCING WILL SLOWLY PUSH FROM BLUE RIDGE TO
NORTHERN VA/SE PA AND INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TNGT. ALSO
EXTENDED SLIGHT POP INTO LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING MAINLY
OVER THE EASTERN SHORE AND NORTHERN NECK. WE COULD SEE A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THESE AREAS AS TRAILING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
CURRENTLY OVER THE OHIO RVR VALLEY PIVOTS ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, A MILD AND MUGGY EVENING WITH EARLY MORNING
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL LINGER JUST INLAND OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN GRT LAKES ON MONDAY...WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT...PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/QUEBEC TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. UPSHOT OF THIS IS THAT APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL REMAIN
LIMITED DURING THIS PERIOD AND THE AVAILABILITY OF A CONVECTIVE
TRIGGER WILL BE LACKING. GIVEN THIS...POPS WILL REMAIN NO HIGHER
THAN 20% MONDAY...CENTERED MAINLY ALONG AND E OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR...AS W/SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION OVER
THE PIEDMONT. MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE APPROACHING
ASSOCIATED (WEAK) COLD FRONT, WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE NW TUESDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH...LIKELY
WASHING OUT/DISSIPATING AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT. COULD SEE AN ISO SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOP ALONG DEVELOPING LEE
TROUGH TO THE WEST AND DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT (WEDNESDAY MORNING)...BUT OVERALL
PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

WHAT`S LEFT OF THE BOUNDARY/SFC TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY...AND LEFTOVER CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
DROP TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY...ALBEIT SLIGHTLY. HAVE UPPED CLOUD COVER
A BIT AND RETAINED A 20-30 POP FOR SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
AND STORMS ALONG THE THE TROUGH...WITH HIGHEST CHCS ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

THE MORE NOTABLE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE THE BUILDING HEAT.
THICKNESS TOOLS/850MB TEMPS/STATISTICAL GUIDANCE HAVE CONTINUED
THEIR UPWARD TREND, AND ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING HIGHS
SOLIDLY INTO THE 90S INLAND TOMORROW THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGHS
INCREMENTALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN
THE LOW 90S (UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST)...WITH MID 90S INLAND ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE
COASTLINES. WHILE NO RECORDS APPEAR IN JEOPARDY THROUGH THE
PERIOD, HIGHS OF THESE MAGNITUDES WOULD AVERAGE ABOUT +1.5 ST DEV
ABOVE SEASONAL MEANS...AND SHOULD BE THE WARMEST READINGS IN OUR
AREA SINCE JULY 23. LOWS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR WED NGT/THU...AFOREMENTIONED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WASHES OUT OVR/JUST S OF THE FA WHILE SFC HI PRES BLDS ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC. DID INCLUDE A SLGT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM OVR SRN
AREAS CLOSEST TO THE GREATEST MOISTURE AXIS AND FORCING...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE UPR 80S TO
LWR 90S UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LGT ONSHORE WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA. SFC HI PRES REMAINS
OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WEST.
MODELS AGREE ON TIMING THE FRONT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC OVR THE
WEEKEND...SO DID INTRODUCE A CHANCE (30%) FOR AFTN/EVENG
SHRAS/TSTMS. HI TEMPS FRI AND SAT WILL BE IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S
WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT 18Z...WITH SCT CU DEVELOPING...AND A
FAIR AMOUNT MID- HIGH CLOUDS. SLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND
10-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTINESS NOTED AT KRIC AND KSBY. ANTICIPATE
ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND
WEST OF KRIC....AND POSSIBLY THE MD PORTION OF THE DELMARVA.
ATTM...HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT FORECAST DRY...AS COVERAGE WILL BE
LIMITED...AND CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING WHETHER
ANY TSTMS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE PIEDMONT/CENTRAL DELMARVA. SHOULD
BE ENOUGH MIXING TONIGHT TO PRECLUDE MORE THAN JUST VERY LIGHT FOG
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...NAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME STRATUS AFTER 06Z AT KECG...WITH CEILINGS EXPECTED TO BE JUST
ABOVE IFR THRESHOLDS.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK.
THE RESULT IS ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURSDAY AS THE
FRONT STALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS WEEK. SFC HI PRES WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS WEEK AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
APPROACHES FM THE W. EXPECT SLY WINDS THIS EVENG AVGG 10-15 KT OVR
THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND AND 15-20 KT OVR CSTL WTRS. WAVES OVR THE BAY
WILL BE 1-3 FT WITH 2-4 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
INTO MON WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. WITH RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS...COULD SEE SOME WIND GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KT OVR THE BAY BOTH
EVENGS AS FLOW CHANNELS UP THE BAY...FOR NOW WILL CAP AT 15 KT.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA AND WEAKENS...LEADING TO LGT/VRB WINDS BY
WED/WED NGT AND SEAS AOB 3 FT. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HEADLINES ATTM
DUE TO A LACK OF CAA/SURGE POST FRONTAL. HI PRES RETURNS WED NGT
THRU THE END OF THE WEEK AS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...MAS







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 312000
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
400 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF THIS WEEK. THIS RESULTS IN AN INCREASE OF HEAT AND
HUMIDITY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT DROPS TOWARD THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT ORIENTED ALONG AND JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE, A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WAS PUSHING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES TOWARDS SE ONTARIO. THE SE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING DEEP SSW FLOW
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA.

STUCK WITH 20-30% RAIN CHANCES LATE AFTN INTO THIS EVENING OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA FROM THE PIEDMONT TO THE LOWER MD
EASTERN SHORE. BEST FORCING WILL SLOWLY PUSH FROM BLUE RIDGE TO
NORTHERN VA/SE PA AND INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TNGT. ALSO
EXTENDED SLIGHT POP INTO LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING MAINLY
OVER THE EASTERN SHORE AND NORTHERN NECK. WE COULD SEE A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THESE AREAS AS TRAILING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
CURRENTLY OVER THE OHIO RVR VALLEY PIVOTS ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, A MILD AND MUGGY EVENING WITH EARLY MORNING
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL LINGER JUST INLAND OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN GRT LAKES ON MONDAY...WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT...PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/QUEBEC TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. UPSHOT OF THIS IS THAT APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL REMAIN
LIMITED DURING THIS PERIOD AND THE AVAILABILITY OF A CONVECTIVE
TRIGGER WILL BE LACKING. GIVEN THIS...POPS WILL REMAIN NO HIGHER
THAN 20% MONDAY...CENTERED MAINLY ALONG AND E OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR...AS W/SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION OVER
THE PIEDMONT. MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE APPROACHING
ASSOCIATED (WEAK) COLD FRONT, WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE NW TUESDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH...LIKELY
WASHING OUT/DISSIPATING AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT. COULD SEE AN ISO SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOP ALONG DEVELOPING LEE
TROUGH TO THE WEST AND DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT (WEDNESDAY MORNING)...BUT OVERALL
PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

WHAT`S LEFT OF THE BOUNDARY/SFC TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY...AND LEFTOVER CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
DROP TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY...ALBEIT SLIGHTLY. HAVE UPPED CLOUD COVER
A BIT AND RETAINED A 20-30 POP FOR SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
AND STORMS ALONG THE THE TROUGH...WITH HIGHEST CHCS ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

THE MORE NOTABLE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE THE BUILDING HEAT.
THICKNESS TOOLS/850MB TEMPS/STATISTICAL GUIDANCE HAVE CONTINUED
THEIR UPWARD TREND, AND ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING HIGHS
SOLIDLY INTO THE 90S INLAND TOMORROW THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGHS
INCREMENTALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN
THE LOW 90S (UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST)...WITH MID 90S INLAND ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE
COASTLINES. WHILE NO RECORDS APPEAR IN JEOPARDY THROUGH THE
PERIOD, HIGHS OF THESE MAGNITUDES WOULD AVERAGE ABOUT +1.5 ST DEV
ABOVE SEASONAL MEANS...AND SHOULD BE THE WARMEST READINGS IN OUR
AREA SINCE JULY 23. LOWS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR WED NGT/THU...AFOREMENTIONED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WASHES OUT OVR/JUST S OF THE FA WHILE SFC HI PRES BLDS ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC. DID INCLUDE A SLGT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM OVR SRN
AREAS CLOSEST TO THE GREATEST MOISTURE AXIS AND FORCING...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE UPR 80S TO
LWR 90S UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LGT ONSHORE WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA. SFC HI PRES REMAINS
OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WEST.
MODELS AGREE ON TIMING THE FRONT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC OVR THE
WEEKEND...SO DID INTRODUCE A CHANCE (30%) FOR AFTN/EVENG
SHRAS/TSTMS. HI TEMPS FRI AND SAT WILL BE IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S
WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT 18Z...WITH SCT CU DEVELOPING...AND A
FAIR AMOUNT MID- HIGH CLOUDS. SLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND
10-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTINESS NOTED AT KRIC AND KSBY. ANTICIPATE
ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND
WEST OF KRIC....AND POSSIBLY THE MD PORTION OF THE DELMARVA.
ATTM...HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT FORECAST DRY...AS COVERAGE WILL BE
LIMITED...AND CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING WHETHER
ANY TSTMS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE PIEDMONT/CENTRAL DELMARVA. SHOULD
BE ENOUGH MIXING TONIGHT TO PRECLUDE MORE THAN JUST VERY LIGHT FOG
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...NAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME STRATUS AFTER 06Z AT KECG...WITH CEILINGS EXPECTED TO BE JUST
ABOVE IFR THRESHOLDS.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK.
THE RESULT IS ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURSDAY AS THE
FRONT STALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS WEEK. SFC HI PRES WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS WEEK AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
APPROACHES FM THE W. EXPECT SLY WINDS THIS EVENG AVGG 10-15 KT OVR
THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND AND 15-20 KT OVR CSTL WTRS. WAVES OVR THE BAY
WILL BE 1-3 FT WITH 2-4 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
INTO MON WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. WITH RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS...COULD SEE SOME WIND GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KT OVR THE BAY BOTH
EVENGS AS FLOW CHANNELS UP THE BAY...FOR NOW WILL CAP AT 15 KT.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA AND WEAKENS...LEADING TO LGT/VRB WINDS BY
WED/WED NGT AND SEAS AOB 3 FT. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HEADLINES ATTM
DUE TO A LACK OF CAA/SURGE POST FRONTAL. HI PRES RETURNS WED NGT
THRU THE END OF THE WEEK AS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...MAS







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 312000
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
400 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF THIS WEEK. THIS RESULTS IN AN INCREASE OF HEAT AND
HUMIDITY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT DROPS TOWARD THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT ORIENTED ALONG AND JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE, A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WAS PUSHING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES TOWARDS SE ONTARIO. THE SE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING DEEP SSW FLOW
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA.

STUCK WITH 20-30% RAIN CHANCES LATE AFTN INTO THIS EVENING OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA FROM THE PIEDMONT TO THE LOWER MD
EASTERN SHORE. BEST FORCING WILL SLOWLY PUSH FROM BLUE RIDGE TO
NORTHERN VA/SE PA AND INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TNGT. ALSO
EXTENDED SLIGHT POP INTO LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING MAINLY
OVER THE EASTERN SHORE AND NORTHERN NECK. WE COULD SEE A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THESE AREAS AS TRAILING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
CURRENTLY OVER THE OHIO RVR VALLEY PIVOTS ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, A MILD AND MUGGY EVENING WITH EARLY MORNING
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL LINGER JUST INLAND OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN GRT LAKES ON MONDAY...WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT...PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/QUEBEC TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. UPSHOT OF THIS IS THAT APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL REMAIN
LIMITED DURING THIS PERIOD AND THE AVAILABILITY OF A CONVECTIVE
TRIGGER WILL BE LACKING. GIVEN THIS...POPS WILL REMAIN NO HIGHER
THAN 20% MONDAY...CENTERED MAINLY ALONG AND E OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR...AS W/SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION OVER
THE PIEDMONT. MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE APPROACHING
ASSOCIATED (WEAK) COLD FRONT, WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE NW TUESDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH...LIKELY
WASHING OUT/DISSIPATING AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT. COULD SEE AN ISO SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOP ALONG DEVELOPING LEE
TROUGH TO THE WEST AND DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT (WEDNESDAY MORNING)...BUT OVERALL
PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

WHAT`S LEFT OF THE BOUNDARY/SFC TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY...AND LEFTOVER CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
DROP TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY...ALBEIT SLIGHTLY. HAVE UPPED CLOUD COVER
A BIT AND RETAINED A 20-30 POP FOR SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
AND STORMS ALONG THE THE TROUGH...WITH HIGHEST CHCS ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

THE MORE NOTABLE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE THE BUILDING HEAT.
THICKNESS TOOLS/850MB TEMPS/STATISTICAL GUIDANCE HAVE CONTINUED
THEIR UPWARD TREND, AND ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING HIGHS
SOLIDLY INTO THE 90S INLAND TOMORROW THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGHS
INCREMENTALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN
THE LOW 90S (UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST)...WITH MID 90S INLAND ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE
COASTLINES. WHILE NO RECORDS APPEAR IN JEOPARDY THROUGH THE
PERIOD, HIGHS OF THESE MAGNITUDES WOULD AVERAGE ABOUT +1.5 ST DEV
ABOVE SEASONAL MEANS...AND SHOULD BE THE WARMEST READINGS IN OUR
AREA SINCE JULY 23. LOWS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR WED NGT/THU...AFOREMENTIONED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WASHES OUT OVR/JUST S OF THE FA WHILE SFC HI PRES BLDS ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC. DID INCLUDE A SLGT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM OVR SRN
AREAS CLOSEST TO THE GREATEST MOISTURE AXIS AND FORCING...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE UPR 80S TO
LWR 90S UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LGT ONSHORE WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA. SFC HI PRES REMAINS
OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WEST.
MODELS AGREE ON TIMING THE FRONT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC OVR THE
WEEKEND...SO DID INTRODUCE A CHANCE (30%) FOR AFTN/EVENG
SHRAS/TSTMS. HI TEMPS FRI AND SAT WILL BE IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S
WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT 18Z...WITH SCT CU DEVELOPING...AND A
FAIR AMOUNT MID- HIGH CLOUDS. SLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND
10-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTINESS NOTED AT KRIC AND KSBY. ANTICIPATE
ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND
WEST OF KRIC....AND POSSIBLY THE MD PORTION OF THE DELMARVA.
ATTM...HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT FORECAST DRY...AS COVERAGE WILL BE
LIMITED...AND CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING WHETHER
ANY TSTMS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE PIEDMONT/CENTRAL DELMARVA. SHOULD
BE ENOUGH MIXING TONIGHT TO PRECLUDE MORE THAN JUST VERY LIGHT FOG
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...NAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME STRATUS AFTER 06Z AT KECG...WITH CEILINGS EXPECTED TO BE JUST
ABOVE IFR THRESHOLDS.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK.
THE RESULT IS ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURSDAY AS THE
FRONT STALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS WEEK. SFC HI PRES WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS WEEK AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
APPROACHES FM THE W. EXPECT SLY WINDS THIS EVENG AVGG 10-15 KT OVR
THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND AND 15-20 KT OVR CSTL WTRS. WAVES OVR THE BAY
WILL BE 1-3 FT WITH 2-4 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
INTO MON WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. WITH RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS...COULD SEE SOME WIND GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KT OVR THE BAY BOTH
EVENGS AS FLOW CHANNELS UP THE BAY...FOR NOW WILL CAP AT 15 KT.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA AND WEAKENS...LEADING TO LGT/VRB WINDS BY
WED/WED NGT AND SEAS AOB 3 FT. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HEADLINES ATTM
DUE TO A LACK OF CAA/SURGE POST FRONTAL. HI PRES RETURNS WED NGT
THRU THE END OF THE WEEK AS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...MAS







000
FXUS61 KRNK 311957
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
357 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL STAY BETWEEN A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. DISTURBANCES PASSING BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL COMBINE WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO RESULT IN
PERIODIC CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO EARLY WEEK. A COLD
FRONT FINALLY ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM EDT SUNDAY...

SHALLOW CONVECTION STARTING TO SLOWLY INCREASE OVER THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE AIDED BY CONVERGENCE/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WESTERN
SLOPES...AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE PER THETA-E POOLING. THIS
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT WILL PASS TO THE NW THIS EVENING
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAKER IMPULSE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER LOTS OF UPSTREAM
DEBRIS CLOUD PUSHING INTO THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL WHICH MAY TEND TO
INHIBIT ALREADY WEAK INSTABILITY FAR WEST...WITH HIGHER 2K J/KG CAPES
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. APPEARS ENOUGH COVERAGE TO CONTINUE LOW LIKELY
TO HIGH CHANCE POPS WEST THIS EVENING...BUT QUESTIONS INTO HOW FAR EAST
TO TAKE SHRA/TSRA PER BETTER DYNAMICS WEST/NW...AND LESS FOCUS DESPITE
STRONGER INSTABILITY PIEDMONT. LATEST NAM/GFS/EC TEND TO CONFINE ADDED
SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE WEST OR NW THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH THE HRRR/NSSL
WRF AND CMC TAKING SOME CONVECTION OUT EAST. FOR NOW GIVEN POTENTIAL
FOR OUTFLOW TO SNEAK OUT OFF THE MOUNTAINS AS MIXING FADES...PLAN TO
KEEP SOME BRIEF LOW CHANCE POPS EAST TO THE PIEDMONT. SECONDARY FAINT
IMPULSE MAY ALSO KEEP OR HELP DEVELOP ANOTHER AREA OF SHRA WEST AFTER
SUNSET...OTRW GRADUALLY DIMINISHING POPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY
MORNING. TEMPS AGAIN SLOW TO FALL PER CLOUDS/MOISTURE SO STAYED CLOSER
TO THE WARMER MET MOS ALLOWING SOME EASTERN SPOTS TO STAY ABOVE 70.

SHORTWAVES WILL BE EXITING BY EARLY MONDAY LEAVING THE REGION IN DECENT
WEST/SW FLOW ALOFT BUT WITHOUT MUCH FORCING WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
UPSTREAM 5H TROF/COLD FRONT TO THE NW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WHICH RESULTS IN DRYING ALOFT/LOWERING PWATS ESPCLY
WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND A LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MOST
GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS SHOW A LACK OF MUCH CONVECTION IN THIS REGIME WITH
ANY FOCUS PROVIDED BY OROGRAPHICS DUE TO WESTERLY CONVERGENCE AND
PERHAPS LATE DAY LOW LEVEL BACKING SE. THUS WILL LEAVE IN SOME LOW POPS
MAINLY WEST AS APPEARS A SUBTLE WAVE ALOFT COULD SNEAK THROUGH AROUND
THE TIME OF MAX HEATING. OTRW EXPECT WEAK LAPSES...LACK OF DEEP
INSTABILITY AND EASTERN DOWNSLOPE TO LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE WITH MUCH
OF THE DAY LIKELY DRY AFTER EARLY MID DECK/FOG ERODE.

COULD BE ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS SEEN IN A WHILE WITH 85H TEMPS PUSHING
+21C OVER DECENT DOWNSLOPE AND UNDER AMPLE AFTERNOON SUN. THIS WOULD
SUPPORT SOME MID 90S PIEDMONT...WITH UPPER 80S/LOW 90S BLUE RIDGE...
AND LOW/MID 80S WESTERN ELEVATIONS IF CAN GET A TEMP JUMP AFTER A WARM
START IN THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...

WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH...EXPECT TO HEAD
INTO LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. AS
SUCH...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN SOME OF
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EARLY MORNING...WHICH WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY
SHORTLY AFTER 9 AM.

DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. ACTIVITY WILL START OFF ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...SPOTTY
AT FIRST DUE TO THE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND THEN WILL SPREAD
EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT DURING THE EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY SHIFTS EAST. LIGHT WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
LIMIT INSTABILITY...AND BELIEVE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ISOLATED AND SHORT LIVED. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL THEN
DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WILL HAVE A WEAK BOUNDARY SITUATED ACROSS OUR
AREA...WHICH WILL EXHIBIT LITTLE MORE THAN A SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION
FROM ONE SIDE TO THE OTHER AS THE TRULY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
REMAIN WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA. REGARDLESS...THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER ANOTHER
ROUND OF SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BETTER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL BE FOUND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
460.

TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL BE WARMER THAN
NORMAL THANKS TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
LOOK FOR HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...
TO THE LOW/MID 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S WEST TO THE LOW 70S EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM SUNDAY...

A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY... PROVIDING THE LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS... MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES BUILDING NORTH...HELPING TO LIMIT INSTABILITY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...ALLOWING WINDS TO
SHIFT EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY...AND THEN SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE
EVENING.

AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...USHERING IN COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE.

TROPICAL AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. AS SUCH...EXPECT WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS...WITH
TEMPERATURES HOLDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL ARRIVE WITH THE COLD FRONT AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1255 PM EDT SUNDAY...

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE DETERIORATING FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AS AN AXIS OF LOWER CLOUDS JUST
ENTERING THE MOUNTAINS PUSHES EAST. THIS SHOULD BRING A FEW HOURS
OF MVFR TO KLWB/KBLF THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WITH PASSING
SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLY RESULTING IN LOCAL MVFR VSBYS INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. CANOPY LIKELY TO DIMINISH SOME HEADING EAST TO
THE BLUE RIDGE SO KEEPING ELSW VFR WHILE DELAYING TIMING OF ANY
SHRA/TSRA A COUPLE HOURS AT KBCB/KROA/KLYH...AND LEAVING OUT
MENTION AT KDAN FOR NOW.

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE BEST COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL
BE OVER THE NW THIS EVENING WITH PERHAPS A BAND MOVING EAST OFF
THE RIDGES BEFORE FADING BY MIDNIGHT. THUS LEFT IN EITHER HIGH
END MVFR TO LOW END VFR CIGS OVER THE WEST THIS EVENING WITH SOME
PREVAILING VFR/MVFR VSBYS IN SHRA POSSIBLE. OTRW WILL KEEP A VCSH
MENTION FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING THEN TREND TOWARD MORE PATCHY
FOG/STRATUS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER LATEST SREF PROGS SUGGEST LIMITED
DENSE FOG COVERAGE GIVEN MID CLOUDS SO ONLY LOWERING KLWB TO IFR
BY MORNING WITH BRIEF MVFR AT MOST OTHER LOCATIONS EXCLUDING KROA
BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

LAST MID LEVEL WAVE WILL PASS TO THE NW BY EARLY MONDAY LEAVING
THE AREA IN BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT.
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH LACK OF FOCUS AND DECENT MIXING
SHOULD INHIBIT MUCH CONVECTION DURING MONDAY ESPCLY IF EARLY MID
DECK PERSISTS. THIS SUPPORTS GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY AFTER EARLY LOW CLOUDS/FOG FADE WITH ONLY ISOLATED
CONVECTION LIKELY.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY WITH SIMILAR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. FRONT SETTLES CLOSER TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHEN BETTER COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA IS
EXPECTED...AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTH THURSDAY WHERE THE BOUNDARY
STALLS. HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND SOUTHWARD
POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY AT THIS POINT. THUS APPEARS MAINLY VFR
ON TUESDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY IN MORE
ORGANIZED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION...AND MVFR/IFR UNDER
EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE VALLEYS AND WHERE EARLIER HEAVY RAIN
OCCURRED. FRONT WASHES OUT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY WITH
MORE DIURNAL NATURE SHOWERS AND STORMS...OTRW VFR.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...WILL
BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A PART HAS BEEN BACK-ORDERED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...AMS/JH
EQUIPMENT...AMS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 311929
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
329 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN FOR THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AREA BETWEEN I-81 AND THE BAY HAS RECEIVED PLENTY OF INSOLATION
TODAY...WHICH SUPPORTS THE DVLPMNT OF LEE TROFFING EVIDENT IN LTST
SFC ANALY. OTRW...THE NEAREST SYNOP FEATURE IS A WK CDFNT IN THE
ST LAWR VLY SWWD TO DTW. A BKN LINE OF SHRA/TSRA HAS DVLPD ALONG
THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BNDRY...FM FDK-OKV-HIGHLAND CO VA. ADDTL
TSRA CAN BE FOUND JUST OVER THE SUSQ RIVER IN CECIL CO.

MESO ANALY SUGGESTS A RIBBON OF MUCAPE AOA 2000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR ALONG AND JUST E OF THE AREA WHERE STORMS FORMING.
THEREFORE...SEE NO REASON WHY DVLPMNT WONT CONTINUE. HRRR HAS BEEN
PERFORMING RATHER WELL THUS FAR TDA. IT SUGGESTS THAT PCPN WL CONT
TO FILL IN AS AREA HEADS TWD I-95 BY 20-22Z. FCST IS BASED ON THIS
SCENARIO.

THERES ENUF CAPE AND SHEAR FOR ORGANIZATION TO OCCUR. THUS FAR
THATS FAILED TO HPPN...LKLY DUE TO WK MID LVL LAPSE RATES. IF WE
CAN OVERCOME THE ISSUES IN THE MID LVLS...THEN THE MOST LKLY
THREAT WUD COME FROM WET MICROBURSTS. IN ADDITION...PWAT NEAR 2
INCHES WUD SUPPORT HVY RAINERS.

THE TAIL OF A PVA LOBE WL CROSS THE AREA BTWN 00-06Z. HV HELD ONTO
LKLY OR HIER POPS ALL AREAS XCPT FOR CHO-EZF-NHK DUE TO THIS ADDED
SUPPORT. ONCE WE GET TOO MUCH LATER THAN THAT...WE WL LOSE OUR
HEATING...AND XPCT A DOWNWARD TREND TO THE STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WL STILL HV LEE TROF AND AN UNSTBL AMS MON. HWVR...FORCING FOR
PCPN WL BE LACKING. STILL XPCT SCT STORM DVLPMNT DURING THE
MIDDAY...WHICH WL BE DROPPING INTO THE LEE TROF DURING THE AFTN.

THE RELATIVE LACK OF ACTIVITY AND CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST-TO-
EAST WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE U80S AND SOME L90S
FOR THE AREA ON MON AFTN...W/ DEWPOINTS STANDING PAT IN THE
U60S/L70S - ANOTHER MUGGY DAY FOR THE AREA.

WEAK RIDGING CROSSES THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...MAKING FOR A REPRIEVE IN THUNDERSTORMS FOR 12-18 HRS. WITH
THE BERMUDA HIGH IN PLACE...EXPECT TUESDAY TO HAVE THE HIGHEST
TEMPERATURE DAY SINCE JULY. MAX TEMPS LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE TUESDAY AND CROSSES THAT NIGHT.
WITH PLENTY OF ENERGY FROM THE HOT DAY...EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER...PARTICULAR FOR WRN ZONES THAT ARE PROGGED TO GET
THE EVENING ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CWA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ALLOWING A COLD FRONT
FROM THE WEST TO ENTER THE CWA FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH PVA IS WEAK...
STALLED BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE WILL SUPPLY ACTIVE WEATHER INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS ACRS THE TERMINALS TAFTN. SCTD-NMRS SHRA/TSRA HV DVLPD E
OF MRB BUT W OF THE REST OF THE AIRFIELDS. DUE TO XPCTD CVRG AND
TRACKABLE FEATURES...TAFS NOW HV EXPLICIT THUNDER MENTION. IN
ADDITION...HV TEMPO FOR MOST LKLY TIME FRAME...22Z-02Z. HV MVFR
VSBY AND G30 KT. IF FULL CNVCTV DVLPMNT REALIZED AND AN AIRFIELD
TAKES A DIRECT HIT...IFR FLGT CONDS AND HIER GUSTS PSBL.

SLY WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO MON...ALONG W/ A FEW HIT/MISS SHOWERS
AS WELL THRU MON EVE.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE/VFR TUESDAY ON A HOT DAY (MAX TEMPS IN THE MID
90S). SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE/VFR OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL
MORNING FOG MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY FLOW ACRS THE MARINE AREA SUN-MON. MDL SNDGS DEPICT G20 KT
PSBL TAFTN...WHICH BEING FULLY REALIZED ATTM. HV RAISED SCA INTO
THE EVNG ALL WATERS. SLY FLOW PTTN CONTS INTO MON...BUT WNDS SHUD
BE LIGHTER.

SUB SCA SWLY FLOW MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT
BRINGS WLY FLOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DEPARTURES ON THE UPR TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER AND MOST OF THE BAY
STILL HOVERING AROUND 1 FT. LWTV2/SLIM2 STILL ONLY 3/4 FT ABOVE
NORMAL. A GOOD SLY FLOW CONTS ON THE WATERS...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE
DEPARTURES TO DECREASE MUCH TNGT. BASED ON THESE TRENDS...
ANNAPOLIS WL EXCEED MINOR CRITERIA...AND SVRL OTHER SITES WL REACH
CAUTION STAGE. HV ISSUED COASTAL FLOOD ADVY FOR AA COUNTY...AND
MONITOR THE REST.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>533-536>542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ534-
     543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS/GMS
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...HTS/BAJ
MARINE...HTS/BAJ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 311929
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
329 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN FOR THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AREA BETWEEN I-81 AND THE BAY HAS RECEIVED PLENTY OF INSOLATION
TODAY...WHICH SUPPORTS THE DVLPMNT OF LEE TROFFING EVIDENT IN LTST
SFC ANALY. OTRW...THE NEAREST SYNOP FEATURE IS A WK CDFNT IN THE
ST LAWR VLY SWWD TO DTW. A BKN LINE OF SHRA/TSRA HAS DVLPD ALONG
THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BNDRY...FM FDK-OKV-HIGHLAND CO VA. ADDTL
TSRA CAN BE FOUND JUST OVER THE SUSQ RIVER IN CECIL CO.

MESO ANALY SUGGESTS A RIBBON OF MUCAPE AOA 2000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR ALONG AND JUST E OF THE AREA WHERE STORMS FORMING.
THEREFORE...SEE NO REASON WHY DVLPMNT WONT CONTINUE. HRRR HAS BEEN
PERFORMING RATHER WELL THUS FAR TDA. IT SUGGESTS THAT PCPN WL CONT
TO FILL IN AS AREA HEADS TWD I-95 BY 20-22Z. FCST IS BASED ON THIS
SCENARIO.

THERES ENUF CAPE AND SHEAR FOR ORGANIZATION TO OCCUR. THUS FAR
THATS FAILED TO HPPN...LKLY DUE TO WK MID LVL LAPSE RATES. IF WE
CAN OVERCOME THE ISSUES IN THE MID LVLS...THEN THE MOST LKLY
THREAT WUD COME FROM WET MICROBURSTS. IN ADDITION...PWAT NEAR 2
INCHES WUD SUPPORT HVY RAINERS.

THE TAIL OF A PVA LOBE WL CROSS THE AREA BTWN 00-06Z. HV HELD ONTO
LKLY OR HIER POPS ALL AREAS XCPT FOR CHO-EZF-NHK DUE TO THIS ADDED
SUPPORT. ONCE WE GET TOO MUCH LATER THAN THAT...WE WL LOSE OUR
HEATING...AND XPCT A DOWNWARD TREND TO THE STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WL STILL HV LEE TROF AND AN UNSTBL AMS MON. HWVR...FORCING FOR
PCPN WL BE LACKING. STILL XPCT SCT STORM DVLPMNT DURING THE
MIDDAY...WHICH WL BE DROPPING INTO THE LEE TROF DURING THE AFTN.

THE RELATIVE LACK OF ACTIVITY AND CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST-TO-
EAST WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE U80S AND SOME L90S
FOR THE AREA ON MON AFTN...W/ DEWPOINTS STANDING PAT IN THE
U60S/L70S - ANOTHER MUGGY DAY FOR THE AREA.

WEAK RIDGING CROSSES THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...MAKING FOR A REPRIEVE IN THUNDERSTORMS FOR 12-18 HRS. WITH
THE BERMUDA HIGH IN PLACE...EXPECT TUESDAY TO HAVE THE HIGHEST
TEMPERATURE DAY SINCE JULY. MAX TEMPS LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE TUESDAY AND CROSSES THAT NIGHT.
WITH PLENTY OF ENERGY FROM THE HOT DAY...EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER...PARTICULAR FOR WRN ZONES THAT ARE PROGGED TO GET
THE EVENING ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CWA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ALLOWING A COLD FRONT
FROM THE WEST TO ENTER THE CWA FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH PVA IS WEAK...
STALLED BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE WILL SUPPLY ACTIVE WEATHER INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS ACRS THE TERMINALS TAFTN. SCTD-NMRS SHRA/TSRA HV DVLPD E
OF MRB BUT W OF THE REST OF THE AIRFIELDS. DUE TO XPCTD CVRG AND
TRACKABLE FEATURES...TAFS NOW HV EXPLICIT THUNDER MENTION. IN
ADDITION...HV TEMPO FOR MOST LKLY TIME FRAME...22Z-02Z. HV MVFR
VSBY AND G30 KT. IF FULL CNVCTV DVLPMNT REALIZED AND AN AIRFIELD
TAKES A DIRECT HIT...IFR FLGT CONDS AND HIER GUSTS PSBL.

SLY WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO MON...ALONG W/ A FEW HIT/MISS SHOWERS
AS WELL THRU MON EVE.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE/VFR TUESDAY ON A HOT DAY (MAX TEMPS IN THE MID
90S). SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE/VFR OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL
MORNING FOG MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY FLOW ACRS THE MARINE AREA SUN-MON. MDL SNDGS DEPICT G20 KT
PSBL TAFTN...WHICH BEING FULLY REALIZED ATTM. HV RAISED SCA INTO
THE EVNG ALL WATERS. SLY FLOW PTTN CONTS INTO MON...BUT WNDS SHUD
BE LIGHTER.

SUB SCA SWLY FLOW MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT
BRINGS WLY FLOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DEPARTURES ON THE UPR TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER AND MOST OF THE BAY
STILL HOVERING AROUND 1 FT. LWTV2/SLIM2 STILL ONLY 3/4 FT ABOVE
NORMAL. A GOOD SLY FLOW CONTS ON THE WATERS...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE
DEPARTURES TO DECREASE MUCH TNGT. BASED ON THESE TRENDS...
ANNAPOLIS WL EXCEED MINOR CRITERIA...AND SVRL OTHER SITES WL REACH
CAUTION STAGE. HV ISSUED COASTAL FLOOD ADVY FOR AA COUNTY...AND
MONITOR THE REST.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>533-536>542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ534-
     543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS/GMS
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...HTS/BAJ
MARINE...HTS/BAJ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 311929
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
329 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN FOR THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AREA BETWEEN I-81 AND THE BAY HAS RECEIVED PLENTY OF INSOLATION
TODAY...WHICH SUPPORTS THE DVLPMNT OF LEE TROFFING EVIDENT IN LTST
SFC ANALY. OTRW...THE NEAREST SYNOP FEATURE IS A WK CDFNT IN THE
ST LAWR VLY SWWD TO DTW. A BKN LINE OF SHRA/TSRA HAS DVLPD ALONG
THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BNDRY...FM FDK-OKV-HIGHLAND CO VA. ADDTL
TSRA CAN BE FOUND JUST OVER THE SUSQ RIVER IN CECIL CO.

MESO ANALY SUGGESTS A RIBBON OF MUCAPE AOA 2000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR ALONG AND JUST E OF THE AREA WHERE STORMS FORMING.
THEREFORE...SEE NO REASON WHY DVLPMNT WONT CONTINUE. HRRR HAS BEEN
PERFORMING RATHER WELL THUS FAR TDA. IT SUGGESTS THAT PCPN WL CONT
TO FILL IN AS AREA HEADS TWD I-95 BY 20-22Z. FCST IS BASED ON THIS
SCENARIO.

THERES ENUF CAPE AND SHEAR FOR ORGANIZATION TO OCCUR. THUS FAR
THATS FAILED TO HPPN...LKLY DUE TO WK MID LVL LAPSE RATES. IF WE
CAN OVERCOME THE ISSUES IN THE MID LVLS...THEN THE MOST LKLY
THREAT WUD COME FROM WET MICROBURSTS. IN ADDITION...PWAT NEAR 2
INCHES WUD SUPPORT HVY RAINERS.

THE TAIL OF A PVA LOBE WL CROSS THE AREA BTWN 00-06Z. HV HELD ONTO
LKLY OR HIER POPS ALL AREAS XCPT FOR CHO-EZF-NHK DUE TO THIS ADDED
SUPPORT. ONCE WE GET TOO MUCH LATER THAN THAT...WE WL LOSE OUR
HEATING...AND XPCT A DOWNWARD TREND TO THE STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WL STILL HV LEE TROF AND AN UNSTBL AMS MON. HWVR...FORCING FOR
PCPN WL BE LACKING. STILL XPCT SCT STORM DVLPMNT DURING THE
MIDDAY...WHICH WL BE DROPPING INTO THE LEE TROF DURING THE AFTN.

THE RELATIVE LACK OF ACTIVITY AND CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST-TO-
EAST WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE U80S AND SOME L90S
FOR THE AREA ON MON AFTN...W/ DEWPOINTS STANDING PAT IN THE
U60S/L70S - ANOTHER MUGGY DAY FOR THE AREA.

WEAK RIDGING CROSSES THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...MAKING FOR A REPRIEVE IN THUNDERSTORMS FOR 12-18 HRS. WITH
THE BERMUDA HIGH IN PLACE...EXPECT TUESDAY TO HAVE THE HIGHEST
TEMPERATURE DAY SINCE JULY. MAX TEMPS LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE TUESDAY AND CROSSES THAT NIGHT.
WITH PLENTY OF ENERGY FROM THE HOT DAY...EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER...PARTICULAR FOR WRN ZONES THAT ARE PROGGED TO GET
THE EVENING ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CWA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ALLOWING A COLD FRONT
FROM THE WEST TO ENTER THE CWA FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH PVA IS WEAK...
STALLED BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE WILL SUPPLY ACTIVE WEATHER INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS ACRS THE TERMINALS TAFTN. SCTD-NMRS SHRA/TSRA HV DVLPD E
OF MRB BUT W OF THE REST OF THE AIRFIELDS. DUE TO XPCTD CVRG AND
TRACKABLE FEATURES...TAFS NOW HV EXPLICIT THUNDER MENTION. IN
ADDITION...HV TEMPO FOR MOST LKLY TIME FRAME...22Z-02Z. HV MVFR
VSBY AND G30 KT. IF FULL CNVCTV DVLPMNT REALIZED AND AN AIRFIELD
TAKES A DIRECT HIT...IFR FLGT CONDS AND HIER GUSTS PSBL.

SLY WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO MON...ALONG W/ A FEW HIT/MISS SHOWERS
AS WELL THRU MON EVE.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE/VFR TUESDAY ON A HOT DAY (MAX TEMPS IN THE MID
90S). SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE/VFR OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL
MORNING FOG MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY FLOW ACRS THE MARINE AREA SUN-MON. MDL SNDGS DEPICT G20 KT
PSBL TAFTN...WHICH BEING FULLY REALIZED ATTM. HV RAISED SCA INTO
THE EVNG ALL WATERS. SLY FLOW PTTN CONTS INTO MON...BUT WNDS SHUD
BE LIGHTER.

SUB SCA SWLY FLOW MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT
BRINGS WLY FLOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DEPARTURES ON THE UPR TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER AND MOST OF THE BAY
STILL HOVERING AROUND 1 FT. LWTV2/SLIM2 STILL ONLY 3/4 FT ABOVE
NORMAL. A GOOD SLY FLOW CONTS ON THE WATERS...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE
DEPARTURES TO DECREASE MUCH TNGT. BASED ON THESE TRENDS...
ANNAPOLIS WL EXCEED MINOR CRITERIA...AND SVRL OTHER SITES WL REACH
CAUTION STAGE. HV ISSUED COASTAL FLOOD ADVY FOR AA COUNTY...AND
MONITOR THE REST.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>533-536>542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ534-
     543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS/GMS
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...HTS/BAJ
MARINE...HTS/BAJ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 311929
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
329 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN FOR THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AREA BETWEEN I-81 AND THE BAY HAS RECEIVED PLENTY OF INSOLATION
TODAY...WHICH SUPPORTS THE DVLPMNT OF LEE TROFFING EVIDENT IN LTST
SFC ANALY. OTRW...THE NEAREST SYNOP FEATURE IS A WK CDFNT IN THE
ST LAWR VLY SWWD TO DTW. A BKN LINE OF SHRA/TSRA HAS DVLPD ALONG
THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BNDRY...FM FDK-OKV-HIGHLAND CO VA. ADDTL
TSRA CAN BE FOUND JUST OVER THE SUSQ RIVER IN CECIL CO.

MESO ANALY SUGGESTS A RIBBON OF MUCAPE AOA 2000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR ALONG AND JUST E OF THE AREA WHERE STORMS FORMING.
THEREFORE...SEE NO REASON WHY DVLPMNT WONT CONTINUE. HRRR HAS BEEN
PERFORMING RATHER WELL THUS FAR TDA. IT SUGGESTS THAT PCPN WL CONT
TO FILL IN AS AREA HEADS TWD I-95 BY 20-22Z. FCST IS BASED ON THIS
SCENARIO.

THERES ENUF CAPE AND SHEAR FOR ORGANIZATION TO OCCUR. THUS FAR
THATS FAILED TO HPPN...LKLY DUE TO WK MID LVL LAPSE RATES. IF WE
CAN OVERCOME THE ISSUES IN THE MID LVLS...THEN THE MOST LKLY
THREAT WUD COME FROM WET MICROBURSTS. IN ADDITION...PWAT NEAR 2
INCHES WUD SUPPORT HVY RAINERS.

THE TAIL OF A PVA LOBE WL CROSS THE AREA BTWN 00-06Z. HV HELD ONTO
LKLY OR HIER POPS ALL AREAS XCPT FOR CHO-EZF-NHK DUE TO THIS ADDED
SUPPORT. ONCE WE GET TOO MUCH LATER THAN THAT...WE WL LOSE OUR
HEATING...AND XPCT A DOWNWARD TREND TO THE STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WL STILL HV LEE TROF AND AN UNSTBL AMS MON. HWVR...FORCING FOR
PCPN WL BE LACKING. STILL XPCT SCT STORM DVLPMNT DURING THE
MIDDAY...WHICH WL BE DROPPING INTO THE LEE TROF DURING THE AFTN.

THE RELATIVE LACK OF ACTIVITY AND CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST-TO-
EAST WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE U80S AND SOME L90S
FOR THE AREA ON MON AFTN...W/ DEWPOINTS STANDING PAT IN THE
U60S/L70S - ANOTHER MUGGY DAY FOR THE AREA.

WEAK RIDGING CROSSES THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...MAKING FOR A REPRIEVE IN THUNDERSTORMS FOR 12-18 HRS. WITH
THE BERMUDA HIGH IN PLACE...EXPECT TUESDAY TO HAVE THE HIGHEST
TEMPERATURE DAY SINCE JULY. MAX TEMPS LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE TUESDAY AND CROSSES THAT NIGHT.
WITH PLENTY OF ENERGY FROM THE HOT DAY...EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER...PARTICULAR FOR WRN ZONES THAT ARE PROGGED TO GET
THE EVENING ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CWA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ALLOWING A COLD FRONT
FROM THE WEST TO ENTER THE CWA FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH PVA IS WEAK...
STALLED BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE WILL SUPPLY ACTIVE WEATHER INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS ACRS THE TERMINALS TAFTN. SCTD-NMRS SHRA/TSRA HV DVLPD E
OF MRB BUT W OF THE REST OF THE AIRFIELDS. DUE TO XPCTD CVRG AND
TRACKABLE FEATURES...TAFS NOW HV EXPLICIT THUNDER MENTION. IN
ADDITION...HV TEMPO FOR MOST LKLY TIME FRAME...22Z-02Z. HV MVFR
VSBY AND G30 KT. IF FULL CNVCTV DVLPMNT REALIZED AND AN AIRFIELD
TAKES A DIRECT HIT...IFR FLGT CONDS AND HIER GUSTS PSBL.

SLY WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO MON...ALONG W/ A FEW HIT/MISS SHOWERS
AS WELL THRU MON EVE.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE/VFR TUESDAY ON A HOT DAY (MAX TEMPS IN THE MID
90S). SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE/VFR OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL
MORNING FOG MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY FLOW ACRS THE MARINE AREA SUN-MON. MDL SNDGS DEPICT G20 KT
PSBL TAFTN...WHICH BEING FULLY REALIZED ATTM. HV RAISED SCA INTO
THE EVNG ALL WATERS. SLY FLOW PTTN CONTS INTO MON...BUT WNDS SHUD
BE LIGHTER.

SUB SCA SWLY FLOW MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT
BRINGS WLY FLOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DEPARTURES ON THE UPR TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER AND MOST OF THE BAY
STILL HOVERING AROUND 1 FT. LWTV2/SLIM2 STILL ONLY 3/4 FT ABOVE
NORMAL. A GOOD SLY FLOW CONTS ON THE WATERS...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE
DEPARTURES TO DECREASE MUCH TNGT. BASED ON THESE TRENDS...
ANNAPOLIS WL EXCEED MINOR CRITERIA...AND SVRL OTHER SITES WL REACH
CAUTION STAGE. HV ISSUED COASTAL FLOOD ADVY FOR AA COUNTY...AND
MONITOR THE REST.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>533-536>542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ534-
     543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS/GMS
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...HTS/BAJ
MARINE...HTS/BAJ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS







000
FXUS61 KRNK 311903
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
303 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL STAY BETWEEN A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. DISTURBANCES PASSING BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL COMBINE WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO RESULT IN
PERIODIC CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO EARLY WEEK. A COLD
FRONT FINALLY ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM EDT SUNDAY...

SHALLOW CONVECTION STARTING TO SLOWLY INCREASE OVER THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE AIDED BY CONVERGENCE/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WESTERN
SLOPES...AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE PER THETA-E POOLING. THIS
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT WILL PASS TO THE NW THIS EVENING
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAKER IMPULSE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER LOTS OF UPSTREAM
DEBRIS CLOUD PUSHING INTO THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL WHICH MAY TEND TO
INHIBIT ALREADY WEAK INSTABILITY FAR WEST...WITH HIGHER 2K J/KG CAPES
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. APPEARS ENOUGH COVERAGE TO CONTINUE LOW LIKELY
TO HIGH CHANCE POPS WEST THIS EVENING...BUT QUESTIONS INTO HOW FAR EAST
TO TAKE SHRA/TSRA PER BETTER DYNAMICS WEST/NW...AND LESS FOCUS DESPITE
STRONGER INSTABILITY PIEDMONT. LATEST NAM/GFS/EC TEND TO CONFINE ADDED
SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE WEST OR NW THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH THE HRRR/NSSL
WRF AND CMC TAKING SOME CONVECTION OUT EAST. FOR NOW GIVEN POTENTIAL
FOR OUTFLOW TO SNEAK OUT OFF THE MOUNTAINS AS MIXING FADES...PLAN TO
KEEP SOME BRIEF LOW CHANCE POPS EAST TO THE PIEDMONT. SECONDARY FAINT
IMPULSE MAY ALSO KEEP OR HELP DEVELOP ANOTHER AREA OF SHRA WEST AFTER
SUNSET...OTRW GRADUALLY DIMINISHING POPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY
MORNING. TEMPS AGAIN SLOW TO FALL PER CLOUDS/MOISTURE SO STAYED CLOSER
TO THE WARMER MET MOS ALLOWING SOME EASTERN SPOTS TO STAY ABOVE 70.

SHORTWAVES WILL BE EXITING BY EARLY MONDAY LEAVING THE REGION IN DECENT
WEST/SW FLOW ALOFT BUT WITHOUT MUCH FORCING WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
UPSTREAM 5H TROF/COLD FRONT TO THE NW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WHICH RESULTS IN DRYING ALOFT/LOWERING PWATS ESPCLY
WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND A LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MOST
GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS SHOW A LACK OF MUCH CONVECTION IN THIS REGIME WITH
ANY FOCUS PROVIDED BY OROGRAPHICS DUE TO WESTERLY CONVERGENCE AND
PERHAPS LATE DAY LOW LEVEL BACKING SE. THUS WILL LEAVE IN SOME LOW POPS
MAINLY WEST AS APPEARS A SUBTLE WAVE ALOFT COULD SNEAK THROUGH AROUND
THE TIME OF MAX HEATING. OTRW EXPECT WEAK LAPSES...LACK OF DEEP
INSTABILITY AND EASTERN DOWNSLOPE TO LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE WITH MUCH
OF THE DAY LIKELY DRY AFTER EARLY MID DECK/FOG ERODE.

COULD BE ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS SEEN IN A WHILE WITH 85H TEMPS PUSHING
+21C OVER DECENT DOWNSLOPE AND UNDER AMPLE AFTERNOON SUN. THIS WOULD
SUPPORT SOME MID 90S PIEDMONT...WITH UPPER 80S/LOW 90S BLUE RIDGE...
AND LOW/MID 80S WESTERN ELEVATIONS IF CAN GET A TEMP JUMP AFTER A WARM
START IN THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...

WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH...EXPECT TO HEAD
INTO LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. AS
SUCH...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN SOME OF
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EARLY MORNING...WHICH WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY
SHORTLY AFTER 9 AM.

DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. ACTIVITY WILL START OFF ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...SPOTTY
AT FIRST DUE TO THE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND THEN WILL SPREAD
EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT DURING THE EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY SHIFTS EAST. LIGHT WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
LIMIT INSTABILITY...AND BELIEVE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ISOLATED AND SHORT LIVED. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL THEN
DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WILL HAVE A WEAK BOUNDARY SITUATED ACROSS OUR
AREA...WHICH WILL EXHIBIT LITTLE MORE THAN A SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION
FROM ONE SIDE TO THE OTHER AS THE TRULY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
REMAIN WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA. REGARDLESS...THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER ANOTHER
ROUND OF SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BETTER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL BE FOUND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
460.

TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL BE WARMER THAN
NORMAL THANKS TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
LOOK FOR HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...
TO THE LOW/MID 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S WEST TO THE LOW 70S EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...RESULTING
IN BOTH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND WEAKER WINDS ALOFT. THIS WILL MAKE
FOR MORE STABLE CONDITIONS THAT WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DISORGANIZED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY RAINFALL WHICH
DEVELOPS WILL BE DRIVEN MAINLY BY DAYTIME HEATING...WHICH WILL ALLOW
THIS ACTIVITY TO FIZZLE AFTER SUNSET.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON THURSDAY...
RESULTING IN A WEAK WEDGING PATTERN WITH EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE DRIEST DAY OF THE PERIOD.

WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SINKS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. STRONGER FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC
WILL RESULT IN INCREASED MOISTURE...AND WILL EXPECT SPOTTY SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1255 PM EDT SUNDAY...

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE DETERIORATING FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AS AN AXIS OF LOWER CLOUDS JUST
ENTERING THE MOUNTAINS PUSHES EAST. THIS SHOULD BRING A FEW HOURS
OF MVFR TO KLWB/KBLF THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WITH PASSING
SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLY RESULTING IN LOCAL MVFR VSBYS INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. CANOPY LIKELY TO DIMINISH SOME HEADING EAST TO
THE BLUE RIDGE SO KEEPING ELSW VFR WHILE DELAYING TIMING OF ANY
SHRA/TSRA A COUPLE HOURS AT KBCB/KROA/KLYH...AND LEAVING OUT
MENTION AT KDAN FOR NOW.

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE BEST COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL
BE OVER THE NW THIS EVENING WITH PERHAPS A BAND MOVING EAST OFF
THE RIDGES BEFORE FADING BY MIDNIGHT. THUS LEFT IN EITHER HIGH
END MVFR TO LOW END VFR CIGS OVER THE WEST THIS EVENING WITH SOME
PREVAILING VFR/MVFR VSBYS IN SHRA POSSIBLE. OTRW WILL KEEP A VCSH
MENTION FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING THEN TREND TOWARD MORE PATCHY
FOG/STRATUS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER LATEST SREF PROGS SUGGEST LIMITED
DENSE FOG COVERAGE GIVEN MID CLOUDS SO ONLY LOWERING KLWB TO IFR
BY MORNING WITH BRIEF MVFR AT MOST OTHER LOCATIONS EXCLUDING KROA
BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

LAST MID LEVEL WAVE WILL PASS TO THE NW BY EARLY MONDAY LEAVING
THE AREA IN BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT.
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH LACK OF FOCUS AND DECENT MIXING
SHOULD INHIBIT MUCH CONVECTION DURING MONDAY ESPCLY IF EARLY MID
DECK PERSISTS. THIS SUPPORTS GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY AFTER EARLY LOW CLOUDS/FOG FADE WITH ONLY ISOLATED
CONVECTION LIKELY.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY WITH SIMILAR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. FRONT SETTLES CLOSER TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHEN BETTER COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA IS
EXPECTED...AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTH THURSDAY WHERE THE BOUNDARY
STALLS. HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND SOUTHWARD
POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY AT THIS POINT. THUS APPEARS MAINLY VFR
ON TUESDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY IN MORE
ORGANIZED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION...AND MVFR/IFR UNDER
EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE VALLEYS AND WHERE EARLIER HEAVY RAIN
OCCURRED. FRONT WASHES OUT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY WITH
MORE DIURNAL NATURE SHOWERS AND STORMS...OTRW VFR.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...WILL
BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A PART HAS BEEN BACK-ORDERED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...AMS/JH
EQUIPMENT...AMS



000
FXUS61 KRNK 311903
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
303 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL STAY BETWEEN A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. DISTURBANCES PASSING BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL COMBINE WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO RESULT IN
PERIODIC CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO EARLY WEEK. A COLD
FRONT FINALLY ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM EDT SUNDAY...

SHALLOW CONVECTION STARTING TO SLOWLY INCREASE OVER THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE AIDED BY CONVERGENCE/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WESTERN
SLOPES...AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE PER THETA-E POOLING. THIS
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT WILL PASS TO THE NW THIS EVENING
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAKER IMPULSE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER LOTS OF UPSTREAM
DEBRIS CLOUD PUSHING INTO THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL WHICH MAY TEND TO
INHIBIT ALREADY WEAK INSTABILITY FAR WEST...WITH HIGHER 2K J/KG CAPES
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. APPEARS ENOUGH COVERAGE TO CONTINUE LOW LIKELY
TO HIGH CHANCE POPS WEST THIS EVENING...BUT QUESTIONS INTO HOW FAR EAST
TO TAKE SHRA/TSRA PER BETTER DYNAMICS WEST/NW...AND LESS FOCUS DESPITE
STRONGER INSTABILITY PIEDMONT. LATEST NAM/GFS/EC TEND TO CONFINE ADDED
SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE WEST OR NW THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH THE HRRR/NSSL
WRF AND CMC TAKING SOME CONVECTION OUT EAST. FOR NOW GIVEN POTENTIAL
FOR OUTFLOW TO SNEAK OUT OFF THE MOUNTAINS AS MIXING FADES...PLAN TO
KEEP SOME BRIEF LOW CHANCE POPS EAST TO THE PIEDMONT. SECONDARY FAINT
IMPULSE MAY ALSO KEEP OR HELP DEVELOP ANOTHER AREA OF SHRA WEST AFTER
SUNSET...OTRW GRADUALLY DIMINISHING POPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY
MORNING. TEMPS AGAIN SLOW TO FALL PER CLOUDS/MOISTURE SO STAYED CLOSER
TO THE WARMER MET MOS ALLOWING SOME EASTERN SPOTS TO STAY ABOVE 70.

SHORTWAVES WILL BE EXITING BY EARLY MONDAY LEAVING THE REGION IN DECENT
WEST/SW FLOW ALOFT BUT WITHOUT MUCH FORCING WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
UPSTREAM 5H TROF/COLD FRONT TO THE NW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WHICH RESULTS IN DRYING ALOFT/LOWERING PWATS ESPCLY
WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND A LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MOST
GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS SHOW A LACK OF MUCH CONVECTION IN THIS REGIME WITH
ANY FOCUS PROVIDED BY OROGRAPHICS DUE TO WESTERLY CONVERGENCE AND
PERHAPS LATE DAY LOW LEVEL BACKING SE. THUS WILL LEAVE IN SOME LOW POPS
MAINLY WEST AS APPEARS A SUBTLE WAVE ALOFT COULD SNEAK THROUGH AROUND
THE TIME OF MAX HEATING. OTRW EXPECT WEAK LAPSES...LACK OF DEEP
INSTABILITY AND EASTERN DOWNSLOPE TO LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE WITH MUCH
OF THE DAY LIKELY DRY AFTER EARLY MID DECK/FOG ERODE.

COULD BE ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS SEEN IN A WHILE WITH 85H TEMPS PUSHING
+21C OVER DECENT DOWNSLOPE AND UNDER AMPLE AFTERNOON SUN. THIS WOULD
SUPPORT SOME MID 90S PIEDMONT...WITH UPPER 80S/LOW 90S BLUE RIDGE...
AND LOW/MID 80S WESTERN ELEVATIONS IF CAN GET A TEMP JUMP AFTER A WARM
START IN THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...

WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH...EXPECT TO HEAD
INTO LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. AS
SUCH...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN SOME OF
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EARLY MORNING...WHICH WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY
SHORTLY AFTER 9 AM.

DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. ACTIVITY WILL START OFF ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...SPOTTY
AT FIRST DUE TO THE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND THEN WILL SPREAD
EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT DURING THE EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY SHIFTS EAST. LIGHT WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
LIMIT INSTABILITY...AND BELIEVE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ISOLATED AND SHORT LIVED. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL THEN
DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WILL HAVE A WEAK BOUNDARY SITUATED ACROSS OUR
AREA...WHICH WILL EXHIBIT LITTLE MORE THAN A SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION
FROM ONE SIDE TO THE OTHER AS THE TRULY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
REMAIN WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA. REGARDLESS...THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER ANOTHER
ROUND OF SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BETTER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL BE FOUND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
460.

TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL BE WARMER THAN
NORMAL THANKS TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
LOOK FOR HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...
TO THE LOW/MID 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S WEST TO THE LOW 70S EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...RESULTING
IN BOTH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND WEAKER WINDS ALOFT. THIS WILL MAKE
FOR MORE STABLE CONDITIONS THAT WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DISORGANIZED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY RAINFALL WHICH
DEVELOPS WILL BE DRIVEN MAINLY BY DAYTIME HEATING...WHICH WILL ALLOW
THIS ACTIVITY TO FIZZLE AFTER SUNSET.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON THURSDAY...
RESULTING IN A WEAK WEDGING PATTERN WITH EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE DRIEST DAY OF THE PERIOD.

WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SINKS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. STRONGER FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC
WILL RESULT IN INCREASED MOISTURE...AND WILL EXPECT SPOTTY SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1255 PM EDT SUNDAY...

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE DETERIORATING FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AS AN AXIS OF LOWER CLOUDS JUST
ENTERING THE MOUNTAINS PUSHES EAST. THIS SHOULD BRING A FEW HOURS
OF MVFR TO KLWB/KBLF THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WITH PASSING
SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLY RESULTING IN LOCAL MVFR VSBYS INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. CANOPY LIKELY TO DIMINISH SOME HEADING EAST TO
THE BLUE RIDGE SO KEEPING ELSW VFR WHILE DELAYING TIMING OF ANY
SHRA/TSRA A COUPLE HOURS AT KBCB/KROA/KLYH...AND LEAVING OUT
MENTION AT KDAN FOR NOW.

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE BEST COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL
BE OVER THE NW THIS EVENING WITH PERHAPS A BAND MOVING EAST OFF
THE RIDGES BEFORE FADING BY MIDNIGHT. THUS LEFT IN EITHER HIGH
END MVFR TO LOW END VFR CIGS OVER THE WEST THIS EVENING WITH SOME
PREVAILING VFR/MVFR VSBYS IN SHRA POSSIBLE. OTRW WILL KEEP A VCSH
MENTION FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING THEN TREND TOWARD MORE PATCHY
FOG/STRATUS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER LATEST SREF PROGS SUGGEST LIMITED
DENSE FOG COVERAGE GIVEN MID CLOUDS SO ONLY LOWERING KLWB TO IFR
BY MORNING WITH BRIEF MVFR AT MOST OTHER LOCATIONS EXCLUDING KROA
BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

LAST MID LEVEL WAVE WILL PASS TO THE NW BY EARLY MONDAY LEAVING
THE AREA IN BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT.
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH LACK OF FOCUS AND DECENT MIXING
SHOULD INHIBIT MUCH CONVECTION DURING MONDAY ESPCLY IF EARLY MID
DECK PERSISTS. THIS SUPPORTS GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY AFTER EARLY LOW CLOUDS/FOG FADE WITH ONLY ISOLATED
CONVECTION LIKELY.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY WITH SIMILAR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. FRONT SETTLES CLOSER TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHEN BETTER COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA IS
EXPECTED...AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTH THURSDAY WHERE THE BOUNDARY
STALLS. HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND SOUTHWARD
POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY AT THIS POINT. THUS APPEARS MAINLY VFR
ON TUESDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY IN MORE
ORGANIZED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION...AND MVFR/IFR UNDER
EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE VALLEYS AND WHERE EARLIER HEAVY RAIN
OCCURRED. FRONT WASHES OUT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY WITH
MORE DIURNAL NATURE SHOWERS AND STORMS...OTRW VFR.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...WILL
BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A PART HAS BEEN BACK-ORDERED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...AMS/JH
EQUIPMENT...AMS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 311737
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
137 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF THIS WEEK. THIS RESULTS IN AN INCREASE OF HEAT AND
HUMIDITY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND SETTLES OVER THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT ORIENTED ALONG AND JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE, A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WAS PUSHING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES TOWARDS SE ONTARIO. THE SE RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING DEEP SSW FLOW ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA.

A 20-30% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FROM THE PIEDMONT TO THE LOWER MD
EASTERN SHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS BEST FORCING
SHUNTS CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TOWARDS NORTHERN VA/SE PA AND INTO THE
NORTHEAST THIS AFTN/TNGT. OTHERWISE...MOIST S-SW FLOW BRINGING A VERY
WARM AND MODERATELY HUMID AFTERNOON UNDER A PARTLY SUNNY SKY. BUMPED
HIGHS UP SLIGHTLY PER LATEST OBS...YIELDING HIGHS FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 80S ON THE EASTERN SHORE AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO
AROUND 90/LOW 90S WEST OF THE BAY.

MILD AND MUGGY ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH ANY SHRAS OVER/NEAR THE
LOCAL AREA QUICKLY DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. OTHERWISE,
LOOK FOR EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY.
FORCING WILL BE LIMITED MONDAY AND THE AVAILABILITY OF A CONVECTIVE
TRIGGER WILL BE LACKING. GIVEN THIS...POPS SHOULD BE NO HIGHER THAN
20%...AND THIS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND E OF I-95...AS W/SW
LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION OVER THE PIEDMONT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AN ISO SHOWER/TSTM COULD DRIFT IN
FROM THE NW LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL PARTLY SUNNY AND
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

THE MORE NOTABLE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE BUILDING HEAT. THICKNESS
TOOLS/850MB TEMPS/STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ARE BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON
THE LIKELIHOOD OF HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE 90S INLAND MONDAY/TUESDAY.
THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THIS TREND AS WELL AS MAINTAINING SOME
CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS RESULTS IN HIGHS MONDAY
IN THE LOW 90S (UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST)...WITH MID 90S BY TUESDAY
INLAND...AND UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE COASTLINES. HIGHS OF THESE
MAGNITUDES WOULD AVERAGE ABOUT +1.5 ST DEV ABOVE SEASONAL
MEANS...AND COULD BE THE WARMEST READINGS SINCE JULY 23. LOWS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL
SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR TUE NGT/WED...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP
TOWARD THE AREA...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM DESPITE
LACKING MOISTURE AND A WEAKENING FRONT. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE
UPR 80S TO LWR 90S UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND LGT WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA AND MOST PRECIP MISSING THE
FA. AFOREMENTIONED SFC FRONT WASHES OUT OVR THE CAROLINAS WHILE HI
PRES BLDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE MID ATLANTIC. EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A SHRA/TSTM DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HRS EACH DAY. HI TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT 18Z...WITH SCT CU DEVELOPING...AND A
FAIR AMOUNT MID- HIGH CLOUDS. SLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND
10-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTINESS NOTED AT KRIC AND KSBY. ANTICIPATE
ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND
WEST OF KRIC....AND POSSIBLY THE MD PORTION OF THE DELMARVA.
ATTM...HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT FORECAST DRY...AS COVERAGE WILL BE
LIMITED...AND CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING WHETHER
ANY TSTMS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE PIEDMONT/CENTRAL DELMARVA. SHOULD
BE ENOUGH MIXING TONIGHT TO PRECLUDE MORE THAN JUST VERY LIGHT FOG
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...NAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME STRATUS AFTER 06Z AT KECG...WITH CEILINGS EXPECTED TO BE JUST
ABOVE IFR THRESHOLDS.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK.
THE RESULT IS ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURSDAY AS THE
FRONT STALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC HAS RESULTED IN SLY WINDS
OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING. GRADIENT AND SLY CHANNELING OVER THE
BAY HAVE RESULTED IN SPEEDS OF 10-15 KT...WITH WAVES BUILDING TO 2-3
FT. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SCA THRU EARLY MORNING BEFORE
SPEEDS WANE MID-LATE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER
THE WRN ATLANTIC TODAY THRU MON AS SLY WINDS PERSIST. WARM WATERS
WILL AGAIN RESULT IN SLY CHANNELING TONIGHT...WITH A FEW GUSTS
APPROACHING 20 KT. PERSISTENT SLY WINDS 15-20 KT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 3-4 FT...HIGHEST 20 NM OUT. WAVES 2-3 FT
TONIGHT...HIGHEST IN THE MIDDLE BAY. FLOW BECOMES SWLY TUES AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WINDS AVG 10-15 KT TUES WITH
SEAS 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE TUES
NIGHT-WEDS. SCA CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO A LACK OF
CAA/SURGE POST FRONTAL. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDS NIGHT THRU THE
END OF THE WEEK AS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...SAM






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 311737
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
137 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF THIS WEEK. THIS RESULTS IN AN INCREASE OF HEAT AND
HUMIDITY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND SETTLES OVER THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT ORIENTED ALONG AND JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE, A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WAS PUSHING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES TOWARDS SE ONTARIO. THE SE RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING DEEP SSW FLOW ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA.

A 20-30% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FROM THE PIEDMONT TO THE LOWER MD
EASTERN SHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS BEST FORCING
SHUNTS CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TOWARDS NORTHERN VA/SE PA AND INTO THE
NORTHEAST THIS AFTN/TNGT. OTHERWISE...MOIST S-SW FLOW BRINGING A VERY
WARM AND MODERATELY HUMID AFTERNOON UNDER A PARTLY SUNNY SKY. BUMPED
HIGHS UP SLIGHTLY PER LATEST OBS...YIELDING HIGHS FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 80S ON THE EASTERN SHORE AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO
AROUND 90/LOW 90S WEST OF THE BAY.

MILD AND MUGGY ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH ANY SHRAS OVER/NEAR THE
LOCAL AREA QUICKLY DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. OTHERWISE,
LOOK FOR EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY.
FORCING WILL BE LIMITED MONDAY AND THE AVAILABILITY OF A CONVECTIVE
TRIGGER WILL BE LACKING. GIVEN THIS...POPS SHOULD BE NO HIGHER THAN
20%...AND THIS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND E OF I-95...AS W/SW
LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION OVER THE PIEDMONT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AN ISO SHOWER/TSTM COULD DRIFT IN
FROM THE NW LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL PARTLY SUNNY AND
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

THE MORE NOTABLE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE BUILDING HEAT. THICKNESS
TOOLS/850MB TEMPS/STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ARE BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON
THE LIKELIHOOD OF HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE 90S INLAND MONDAY/TUESDAY.
THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THIS TREND AS WELL AS MAINTAINING SOME
CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS RESULTS IN HIGHS MONDAY
IN THE LOW 90S (UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST)...WITH MID 90S BY TUESDAY
INLAND...AND UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE COASTLINES. HIGHS OF THESE
MAGNITUDES WOULD AVERAGE ABOUT +1.5 ST DEV ABOVE SEASONAL
MEANS...AND COULD BE THE WARMEST READINGS SINCE JULY 23. LOWS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL
SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR TUE NGT/WED...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP
TOWARD THE AREA...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM DESPITE
LACKING MOISTURE AND A WEAKENING FRONT. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE
UPR 80S TO LWR 90S UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND LGT WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA AND MOST PRECIP MISSING THE
FA. AFOREMENTIONED SFC FRONT WASHES OUT OVR THE CAROLINAS WHILE HI
PRES BLDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE MID ATLANTIC. EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A SHRA/TSTM DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HRS EACH DAY. HI TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT 18Z...WITH SCT CU DEVELOPING...AND A
FAIR AMOUNT MID- HIGH CLOUDS. SLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND
10-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTINESS NOTED AT KRIC AND KSBY. ANTICIPATE
ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND
WEST OF KRIC....AND POSSIBLY THE MD PORTION OF THE DELMARVA.
ATTM...HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT FORECAST DRY...AS COVERAGE WILL BE
LIMITED...AND CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING WHETHER
ANY TSTMS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE PIEDMONT/CENTRAL DELMARVA. SHOULD
BE ENOUGH MIXING TONIGHT TO PRECLUDE MORE THAN JUST VERY LIGHT FOG
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...NAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME STRATUS AFTER 06Z AT KECG...WITH CEILINGS EXPECTED TO BE JUST
ABOVE IFR THRESHOLDS.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK.
THE RESULT IS ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURSDAY AS THE
FRONT STALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC HAS RESULTED IN SLY WINDS
OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING. GRADIENT AND SLY CHANNELING OVER THE
BAY HAVE RESULTED IN SPEEDS OF 10-15 KT...WITH WAVES BUILDING TO 2-3
FT. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SCA THRU EARLY MORNING BEFORE
SPEEDS WANE MID-LATE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER
THE WRN ATLANTIC TODAY THRU MON AS SLY WINDS PERSIST. WARM WATERS
WILL AGAIN RESULT IN SLY CHANNELING TONIGHT...WITH A FEW GUSTS
APPROACHING 20 KT. PERSISTENT SLY WINDS 15-20 KT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 3-4 FT...HIGHEST 20 NM OUT. WAVES 2-3 FT
TONIGHT...HIGHEST IN THE MIDDLE BAY. FLOW BECOMES SWLY TUES AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WINDS AVG 10-15 KT TUES WITH
SEAS 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE TUES
NIGHT-WEDS. SCA CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO A LACK OF
CAA/SURGE POST FRONTAL. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDS NIGHT THRU THE
END OF THE WEEK AS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...SAM







000
FXUS61 KRNK 311718
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
118 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL STAY BETWEEN A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. DISTURBANCES PASSING BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL COMBINE WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO RESULT IN
PERIODIC CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO EARLY WEEK. A COLD
FRONT FINALLY ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM EDT SUNDAY...

INITIAL BAND OF EARLY MORNING SHOWERS HAS ALREADY FADED UPON
CROSSING THE BLUE RIDGE SO UPDATED TO CUT BACK ON POPS THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. ALSO EXPECTING MORE SUNSHINE ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION THIS MORNING PER LATEST VISIBLE PICS WITH THE MAIN AXIS OF
DEEP MOISTURE REMAINING WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A BIT MORE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN SW FLOW AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOWING CAPPING JUST OFF
THE SURFACE AND A MORE SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL INVERSION ABOVE WHICH
SHOULD ACT TO DETER ANY WIDESPREAD ADDED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
UNTIL PERHAPS EARLY THIS EVENING AT BEST.

OTRW APPEARS BETTER AFTERNOON CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
BLUE RIDGE PER LOW LEVEL SW FLOW...HIGHER THETA-E AND FORECAST
INSTABILITY...AS WELL AS OVER THE NW WHERE THE UPPER SHEAR AXIS
LOOKS TO FOLD INTO LATE BEHIND THE PASSING WAVE FROM THIS MORNING.
ALSO SOME ADDITION OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ON THE EDGE OF THE FAR
WESTERN CLOUD SHIELD MAY ALONG WITH OROGRPAHICS AID INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT AT LEAST ON A SCATTERED BASIS. THUS BASICALLY KEPT
GOING LOW LIKELY POPS IN THESE SPOTS WHILE TRIMMING BACK OVER THE
PIEDMONT WHERE MORE UNDER THE RESIDUAL RIDGE AND WITHOUT MUCH
FOCUS FOR NOW SIMILAR TO THE LATEST HRRR.

THICKNESS OFF 12Z RAOBS REMAINS QUITE WARM...AND GIVEN A MILD
START INCLUDING MORE HEATING EARLY...WOULD EXPECT READINGS OUT
EAST TO POSSIBLY REACH 90/LOW 90S WITH MID/UPPER 80S ELSW FROM THE
BLUE RIDGE EAST. SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER FAR WEST PER CLOUDS BUT
EVEN THERE APPEARS UPPER 70S/LOW 80S LIKELY.

LARGER BAND OF SHOWERS WILL PIVOT ENOUGH TO REACH SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA TONIGHT...SIMILAR TO ORIENTATION OF WPC QPF FORECAST AND
THE 00Z GFS...SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE 00Z NAM. HUMID AIR
MASS AND VERY MILD DEW POINTS WILL RESULT IN LITTLE COOLING
TONIGHT. USED WARMER MET GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...

PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL PRODUCE TROUGHING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST BY MONDAY MORNING. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. THESE UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL SHAPE THE TIMING
OF CONVECTION.

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY MONDAY MORNING...ENHANCING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS IN
THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE SUBTROPICAL BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE. A VERY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE LABOR
DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 90S IN THE PIEDMONT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SOLAR HEATING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS. RAINFALL WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AS THE SUN SETS AND SHOULD SEE
DRY...ALBEIT WARM AND MUGGY...CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 60S IN
THE WEST TO THE AROUND 70 IN THE EAST.

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES TUESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES. BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...WHERE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE LOCATED.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
LOWER 90S IN THE PIEDMONT.

MODEL TREND HAVE BEEN SLOWING THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND EXPECT THE
COLD FRONT WILL STALL FURTHER NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. LOWS WILL FALL
INTO THE MID 60S TO THE LOW 70S TUESDAY NIGHT.

KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY ALONG THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WHILE...HIGH PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES SHOULD KEEP THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA DRY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
WILL BE FROM THE LOWER 80S IN THE WEST TO AROUND 90 DEGREES IN THE
EAST. SLOWLY DRY THINGS OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
TO NEAR 70 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...RESULTING
IN BOTH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND WEAKER WINDS ALOFT. THIS WILL MAKE
FOR MORE STABLE CONDITIONS THAT WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DISORGANIZED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY RAINFALL WHICH
DEVELOPS WILL BE DRIVEN MAINLY BY DAYTIME HEATING...WHICH WILL ALLOW
THIS ACTIVITY TO FIZZLE AFTER SUNSET.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON THURSDAY...
RESULTING IN A WEAK WEDGING PATTERN WITH EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE DRIEST DAY OF THE PERIOD.

WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SINKS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. STRONGER FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC
WILL RESULT IN INCREASED MOISTURE...AND WILL EXPECT SPOTTY SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1255 PM EDT SUNDAY...

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE DETERIORATING FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AS AN AXIS OF LOWER CLOUDS JUST
ENTERING THE MOUNTAINS PUSHES EAST. THIS SHOULD BRING A FEW HOURS
OF MVFR TO KLWB/KBLF THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WITH PASSING
SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLY RESULTING IN LOCAL MVFR VSBYS INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. CANOPY LIKELY TO DIMINISH SOME HEADING EAST TO
THE BLUE RIDGE SO KEEPING ELSW VFR WHILE DELAYING TIMING OF ANY
SHRA/TSRA A COUPLE HOURS AT KBCB/KROA/KLYH...AND LEAVING OUT
MENTION AT KDAN FOR NOW.

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE BEST COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL
BE OVER THE NW THIS EVENING WITH PERHAPS A BAND MOVING EAST OFF
THE RIDGES BEFORE FADING BY MIDNIGHT. THUS LEFT IN EITHER HIGH
END MVFR TO LOW END VFR CIGS OVER THE WEST THIS EVENING WITH SOME
PREVAILING VFR/MVFR VSBYS IN SHRA POSSIBLE. OTRW WILL KEEP A VCSH
MENTION FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING THEN TREND TOWARD MORE PATCHY
FOG/STRATUS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER LATEST SREF PROGS SUGGEST LIMITED
DENSE FOG COVERAGE GIVEN MID CLOUDS SO ONLY LOWERING KLWB TO IFR
BY MORNING WITH BRIEF MVFR AT MOST OTHER LOCATIONS EXCLUDING KROA
BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

LAST MID LEVEL WAVE WILL PASS TO THE NW BY EARLY MONDAY LEAVING
THE AREA IN BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT.
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH LACK OF FOCUS AND DECENT MIXING
SHOULD INHIBIT MUCH CONVECTION DURING MONDAY ESPCLY IF EARLY MID
DECK PERSISTS. THIS SUPPORTS GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY AFTER EARLY LOW CLOUDS/FOG FADE WITH ONLY ISOLATED
CONVECTION LIKELY.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY WITH SIMILAR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. FRONT SETTLES CLOSER TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHEN BETTER COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA IS
EXPECTED...AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTH THURSDAY WHERE THE BOUNDARY
STALLS. HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND SOUTHWARD
POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY AT THIS POINT. THUS APPEARS MAINLY VFR
ON TUESDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY IN MORE
ORGANIZED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION...AND MVFR/IFR UNDER
EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE VALLEYS AND WHERE EARLIER HEAVY RAIN
OCCURRED. FRONT WASHES OUT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY WITH
MORE DIURNAL NATURE SHOWERS AND STORMS...OTRW VFR.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...WILL
BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A PART HAS BEEN BACK-ORDERED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH
NEAR TERM...AMS/JH
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...AMS/JH
EQUIPMENT...AMS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 311718
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
118 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL STAY BETWEEN A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. DISTURBANCES PASSING BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL COMBINE WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO RESULT IN
PERIODIC CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO EARLY WEEK. A COLD
FRONT FINALLY ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM EDT SUNDAY...

INITIAL BAND OF EARLY MORNING SHOWERS HAS ALREADY FADED UPON
CROSSING THE BLUE RIDGE SO UPDATED TO CUT BACK ON POPS THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. ALSO EXPECTING MORE SUNSHINE ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION THIS MORNING PER LATEST VISIBLE PICS WITH THE MAIN AXIS OF
DEEP MOISTURE REMAINING WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A BIT MORE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN SW FLOW AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOWING CAPPING JUST OFF
THE SURFACE AND A MORE SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL INVERSION ABOVE WHICH
SHOULD ACT TO DETER ANY WIDESPREAD ADDED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
UNTIL PERHAPS EARLY THIS EVENING AT BEST.

OTRW APPEARS BETTER AFTERNOON CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
BLUE RIDGE PER LOW LEVEL SW FLOW...HIGHER THETA-E AND FORECAST
INSTABILITY...AS WELL AS OVER THE NW WHERE THE UPPER SHEAR AXIS
LOOKS TO FOLD INTO LATE BEHIND THE PASSING WAVE FROM THIS MORNING.
ALSO SOME ADDITION OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ON THE EDGE OF THE FAR
WESTERN CLOUD SHIELD MAY ALONG WITH OROGRPAHICS AID INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT AT LEAST ON A SCATTERED BASIS. THUS BASICALLY KEPT
GOING LOW LIKELY POPS IN THESE SPOTS WHILE TRIMMING BACK OVER THE
PIEDMONT WHERE MORE UNDER THE RESIDUAL RIDGE AND WITHOUT MUCH
FOCUS FOR NOW SIMILAR TO THE LATEST HRRR.

THICKNESS OFF 12Z RAOBS REMAINS QUITE WARM...AND GIVEN A MILD
START INCLUDING MORE HEATING EARLY...WOULD EXPECT READINGS OUT
EAST TO POSSIBLY REACH 90/LOW 90S WITH MID/UPPER 80S ELSW FROM THE
BLUE RIDGE EAST. SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER FAR WEST PER CLOUDS BUT
EVEN THERE APPEARS UPPER 70S/LOW 80S LIKELY.

LARGER BAND OF SHOWERS WILL PIVOT ENOUGH TO REACH SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA TONIGHT...SIMILAR TO ORIENTATION OF WPC QPF FORECAST AND
THE 00Z GFS...SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE 00Z NAM. HUMID AIR
MASS AND VERY MILD DEW POINTS WILL RESULT IN LITTLE COOLING
TONIGHT. USED WARMER MET GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...

PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL PRODUCE TROUGHING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST BY MONDAY MORNING. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. THESE UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL SHAPE THE TIMING
OF CONVECTION.

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY MONDAY MORNING...ENHANCING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS IN
THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE SUBTROPICAL BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE. A VERY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE LABOR
DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 90S IN THE PIEDMONT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SOLAR HEATING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS. RAINFALL WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AS THE SUN SETS AND SHOULD SEE
DRY...ALBEIT WARM AND MUGGY...CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 60S IN
THE WEST TO THE AROUND 70 IN THE EAST.

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES TUESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES. BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...WHERE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE LOCATED.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
LOWER 90S IN THE PIEDMONT.

MODEL TREND HAVE BEEN SLOWING THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND EXPECT THE
COLD FRONT WILL STALL FURTHER NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. LOWS WILL FALL
INTO THE MID 60S TO THE LOW 70S TUESDAY NIGHT.

KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY ALONG THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WHILE...HIGH PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES SHOULD KEEP THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA DRY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
WILL BE FROM THE LOWER 80S IN THE WEST TO AROUND 90 DEGREES IN THE
EAST. SLOWLY DRY THINGS OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
TO NEAR 70 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...RESULTING
IN BOTH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND WEAKER WINDS ALOFT. THIS WILL MAKE
FOR MORE STABLE CONDITIONS THAT WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DISORGANIZED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY RAINFALL WHICH
DEVELOPS WILL BE DRIVEN MAINLY BY DAYTIME HEATING...WHICH WILL ALLOW
THIS ACTIVITY TO FIZZLE AFTER SUNSET.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON THURSDAY...
RESULTING IN A WEAK WEDGING PATTERN WITH EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE DRIEST DAY OF THE PERIOD.

WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SINKS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. STRONGER FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC
WILL RESULT IN INCREASED MOISTURE...AND WILL EXPECT SPOTTY SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1255 PM EDT SUNDAY...

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE DETERIORATING FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AS AN AXIS OF LOWER CLOUDS JUST
ENTERING THE MOUNTAINS PUSHES EAST. THIS SHOULD BRING A FEW HOURS
OF MVFR TO KLWB/KBLF THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WITH PASSING
SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLY RESULTING IN LOCAL MVFR VSBYS INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. CANOPY LIKELY TO DIMINISH SOME HEADING EAST TO
THE BLUE RIDGE SO KEEPING ELSW VFR WHILE DELAYING TIMING OF ANY
SHRA/TSRA A COUPLE HOURS AT KBCB/KROA/KLYH...AND LEAVING OUT
MENTION AT KDAN FOR NOW.

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE BEST COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL
BE OVER THE NW THIS EVENING WITH PERHAPS A BAND MOVING EAST OFF
THE RIDGES BEFORE FADING BY MIDNIGHT. THUS LEFT IN EITHER HIGH
END MVFR TO LOW END VFR CIGS OVER THE WEST THIS EVENING WITH SOME
PREVAILING VFR/MVFR VSBYS IN SHRA POSSIBLE. OTRW WILL KEEP A VCSH
MENTION FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING THEN TREND TOWARD MORE PATCHY
FOG/STRATUS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER LATEST SREF PROGS SUGGEST LIMITED
DENSE FOG COVERAGE GIVEN MID CLOUDS SO ONLY LOWERING KLWB TO IFR
BY MORNING WITH BRIEF MVFR AT MOST OTHER LOCATIONS EXCLUDING KROA
BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

LAST MID LEVEL WAVE WILL PASS TO THE NW BY EARLY MONDAY LEAVING
THE AREA IN BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT.
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH LACK OF FOCUS AND DECENT MIXING
SHOULD INHIBIT MUCH CONVECTION DURING MONDAY ESPCLY IF EARLY MID
DECK PERSISTS. THIS SUPPORTS GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY AFTER EARLY LOW CLOUDS/FOG FADE WITH ONLY ISOLATED
CONVECTION LIKELY.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY WITH SIMILAR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. FRONT SETTLES CLOSER TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHEN BETTER COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA IS
EXPECTED...AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTH THURSDAY WHERE THE BOUNDARY
STALLS. HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND SOUTHWARD
POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY AT THIS POINT. THUS APPEARS MAINLY VFR
ON TUESDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY IN MORE
ORGANIZED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION...AND MVFR/IFR UNDER
EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE VALLEYS AND WHERE EARLIER HEAVY RAIN
OCCURRED. FRONT WASHES OUT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY WITH
MORE DIURNAL NATURE SHOWERS AND STORMS...OTRW VFR.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...WILL
BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A PART HAS BEEN BACK-ORDERED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH
NEAR TERM...AMS/JH
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...AMS/JH
EQUIPMENT...AMS



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 311554
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1154 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF THIS WEEK. THIS RESULTS IN AN INCREASE OF HEAT AND
HUMIDITY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND SETTLES OVER THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT ORIENTED ALONG AND JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE, A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WAS PUSHING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES TOWARDS SE ONTARIO. THE SE RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING DEEP SSW FLOW ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA.

A 20-30% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FROM THE PIEDMONT TO THE LOWER MD
EASTERN SHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS BEST FORCING
SHUNTS CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TOWARDS NORTHERN VA/SE PA AND INTO THE
NORTHEAST THIS AFTN/TNGT. OTHERWISE...MOIST S-SW FLOW BRINGING A VERY
WARM AND MODERATELY HUMID AFTERNOON UNDER A PARTLY SUNNY SKY. BUMPED
HIGHS UP SLIGHTLY PER LATEST OBS...YIELDING HIGHS FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 80S ON THE EASTERN SHORE AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO
AROUND 90/LOW 90S WEST OF THE BAY.

MILD AND MUGGY ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH ANY SHRAS OVER/NEAR THE
LOCAL AREA QUICKLY DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. OTHERWISE,
LOOK FOR EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY.
FORCING WILL BE LIMITED MONDAY AND THE AVAILABILITY OF A CONVECTIVE
TRIGGER WILL BE LACKING. GIVEN THIS...POPS SHOULD BE NO HIGHER THAN
20%...AND THIS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND E OF I-95...AS W/SW
LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION OVER THE PIEDMONT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AN ISO SHOWER/TSTM COULD DRIFT IN
FROM THE NW LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL PARTLY SUNNY AND
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

THE MORE NOTABLE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE BUILDING HEAT. THICKNESS
TOOLS/850MB TEMPS/STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ARE BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON
THE LIKELIHOOD OF HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE 90S INLAND MONDAY/TUESDAY.
THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THIS TREND AS WELL AS MAINTAINING SOME
CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS RESULTS IN HIGHS MONDAY
IN THE LOW 90S (UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST)...WITH MID 90S BY TUESDAY
INLAND...AND UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE COASTLINES. HIGHS OF THESE
MAGNITUDES WOULD AVERAGE ABOUT +1.5 ST DEV ABOVE SEASONAL
MEANS...AND COULD BE THE WARMEST READINGS SINCE JULY 23. LOWS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL
SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR TUE NGT/WED...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP
TOWARD THE AREA...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM DESPITE
LACKING MOISTURE AND A WEAKENING FRONT. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE
UPR 80S TO LWR 90S UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND LGT WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA AND MOST PRECIP MISSING THE
FA. AFOREMENTIONED SFC FRONT WASHES OUT OVR THE CAROLINAS WHILE HI
PRES BLDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE MID ATLANTIC. EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A SHRA/TSTM DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HRS EACH DAY. HI TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR TODAY...PATCHY LIGHT FOG AND THIN STRATUS ACROSS THE ERN
2/3RDS OF THE AREA CAUSING MVFR/BRIEF IFR AT KECG/KSBY...AND OTHER
AIRPORTS IN THE AREA. FOG/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT/DISSIPATE QUICKLY
AFTER 12Z...AS VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH SCT MID- HIGH CLOUDS
(DECKS 4-6K FT AGL). SLY WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10-12 KT.
EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE PIEDMONT...WHERE STRATUS APPEARS TO BE
MORE CONSENTRATED...AND MAY TAKE TIL 14-15Z TO LIFT/DISSIPATE.
ANTICIPATE ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH AND WEST OF KRIC.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK.
THE RESULT IS ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THRU TUES. ONLY PATCHY FOG EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURS AS
THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC HAS RESULTED IN SLY WINDS
OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING. GRADIENT AND SLY CHANNELING OVER THE
BAY HAVE RESULTED IN SPEEDS OF 10-15 KT...WITH WAVES BUILDING TO 2-3
FT. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SCA THRU EARLY MORNING BEFORE
SPEEDS WANE MID-LATE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER
THE WRN ATLANTIC TODAY THRU MON AS SLY WINDS PERSIST. WARM WATERS
WILL AGAIN RESULT IN SLY CHANNELING TONIGHT...WITH A FEW GUSTS
APPROACHING 20 KT. PERSISTENT SLY WINDS 15-20 KT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 3-4 FT...HIGHEST 20 NM OUT. WAVES 2-3 FT
TONIGHT...HIGHEST IN THE MIDDLE BAY. FLOW BECOMES SWLY TUES AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WINDS AVG 10-15 KT TUES WITH
SEAS 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE TUES
NIGHT-WEDS. SCA CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO A LACK OF
CAA/SURGE POST FRONTAL. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDS NIGHT THRU THE
END OF THE WEEK AS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...SAM/WRS
MARINE...SAM








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 311554
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1154 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF THIS WEEK. THIS RESULTS IN AN INCREASE OF HEAT AND
HUMIDITY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND SETTLES OVER THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT ORIENTED ALONG AND JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE, A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WAS PUSHING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES TOWARDS SE ONTARIO. THE SE RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING DEEP SSW FLOW ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA.

A 20-30% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FROM THE PIEDMONT TO THE LOWER MD
EASTERN SHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS BEST FORCING
SHUNTS CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TOWARDS NORTHERN VA/SE PA AND INTO THE
NORTHEAST THIS AFTN/TNGT. OTHERWISE...MOIST S-SW FLOW BRINGING A VERY
WARM AND MODERATELY HUMID AFTERNOON UNDER A PARTLY SUNNY SKY. BUMPED
HIGHS UP SLIGHTLY PER LATEST OBS...YIELDING HIGHS FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 80S ON THE EASTERN SHORE AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO
AROUND 90/LOW 90S WEST OF THE BAY.

MILD AND MUGGY ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH ANY SHRAS OVER/NEAR THE
LOCAL AREA QUICKLY DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. OTHERWISE,
LOOK FOR EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY.
FORCING WILL BE LIMITED MONDAY AND THE AVAILABILITY OF A CONVECTIVE
TRIGGER WILL BE LACKING. GIVEN THIS...POPS SHOULD BE NO HIGHER THAN
20%...AND THIS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND E OF I-95...AS W/SW
LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION OVER THE PIEDMONT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AN ISO SHOWER/TSTM COULD DRIFT IN
FROM THE NW LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL PARTLY SUNNY AND
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

THE MORE NOTABLE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE BUILDING HEAT. THICKNESS
TOOLS/850MB TEMPS/STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ARE BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON
THE LIKELIHOOD OF HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE 90S INLAND MONDAY/TUESDAY.
THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THIS TREND AS WELL AS MAINTAINING SOME
CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS RESULTS IN HIGHS MONDAY
IN THE LOW 90S (UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST)...WITH MID 90S BY TUESDAY
INLAND...AND UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE COASTLINES. HIGHS OF THESE
MAGNITUDES WOULD AVERAGE ABOUT +1.5 ST DEV ABOVE SEASONAL
MEANS...AND COULD BE THE WARMEST READINGS SINCE JULY 23. LOWS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL
SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR TUE NGT/WED...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP
TOWARD THE AREA...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM DESPITE
LACKING MOISTURE AND A WEAKENING FRONT. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE
UPR 80S TO LWR 90S UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND LGT WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA AND MOST PRECIP MISSING THE
FA. AFOREMENTIONED SFC FRONT WASHES OUT OVR THE CAROLINAS WHILE HI
PRES BLDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE MID ATLANTIC. EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A SHRA/TSTM DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HRS EACH DAY. HI TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR TODAY...PATCHY LIGHT FOG AND THIN STRATUS ACROSS THE ERN
2/3RDS OF THE AREA CAUSING MVFR/BRIEF IFR AT KECG/KSBY...AND OTHER
AIRPORTS IN THE AREA. FOG/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT/DISSIPATE QUICKLY
AFTER 12Z...AS VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH SCT MID- HIGH CLOUDS
(DECKS 4-6K FT AGL). SLY WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10-12 KT.
EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE PIEDMONT...WHERE STRATUS APPEARS TO BE
MORE CONSENTRATED...AND MAY TAKE TIL 14-15Z TO LIFT/DISSIPATE.
ANTICIPATE ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH AND WEST OF KRIC.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK.
THE RESULT IS ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THRU TUES. ONLY PATCHY FOG EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURS AS
THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC HAS RESULTED IN SLY WINDS
OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING. GRADIENT AND SLY CHANNELING OVER THE
BAY HAVE RESULTED IN SPEEDS OF 10-15 KT...WITH WAVES BUILDING TO 2-3
FT. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SCA THRU EARLY MORNING BEFORE
SPEEDS WANE MID-LATE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER
THE WRN ATLANTIC TODAY THRU MON AS SLY WINDS PERSIST. WARM WATERS
WILL AGAIN RESULT IN SLY CHANNELING TONIGHT...WITH A FEW GUSTS
APPROACHING 20 KT. PERSISTENT SLY WINDS 15-20 KT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 3-4 FT...HIGHEST 20 NM OUT. WAVES 2-3 FT
TONIGHT...HIGHEST IN THE MIDDLE BAY. FLOW BECOMES SWLY TUES AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WINDS AVG 10-15 KT TUES WITH
SEAS 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE TUES
NIGHT-WEDS. SCA CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO A LACK OF
CAA/SURGE POST FRONTAL. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDS NIGHT THRU THE
END OF THE WEEK AS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...SAM/WRS
MARINE...SAM








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 311554
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1154 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF THIS WEEK. THIS RESULTS IN AN INCREASE OF HEAT AND
HUMIDITY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND SETTLES OVER THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT ORIENTED ALONG AND JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE, A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WAS PUSHING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES TOWARDS SE ONTARIO. THE SE RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING DEEP SSW FLOW ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA.

A 20-30% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FROM THE PIEDMONT TO THE LOWER MD
EASTERN SHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS BEST FORCING
SHUNTS CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TOWARDS NORTHERN VA/SE PA AND INTO THE
NORTHEAST THIS AFTN/TNGT. OTHERWISE...MOIST S-SW FLOW BRINGING A VERY
WARM AND MODERATELY HUMID AFTERNOON UNDER A PARTLY SUNNY SKY. BUMPED
HIGHS UP SLIGHTLY PER LATEST OBS...YIELDING HIGHS FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 80S ON THE EASTERN SHORE AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO
AROUND 90/LOW 90S WEST OF THE BAY.

MILD AND MUGGY ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH ANY SHRAS OVER/NEAR THE
LOCAL AREA QUICKLY DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. OTHERWISE,
LOOK FOR EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY.
FORCING WILL BE LIMITED MONDAY AND THE AVAILABILITY OF A CONVECTIVE
TRIGGER WILL BE LACKING. GIVEN THIS...POPS SHOULD BE NO HIGHER THAN
20%...AND THIS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND E OF I-95...AS W/SW
LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION OVER THE PIEDMONT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AN ISO SHOWER/TSTM COULD DRIFT IN
FROM THE NW LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL PARTLY SUNNY AND
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

THE MORE NOTABLE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE BUILDING HEAT. THICKNESS
TOOLS/850MB TEMPS/STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ARE BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON
THE LIKELIHOOD OF HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE 90S INLAND MONDAY/TUESDAY.
THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THIS TREND AS WELL AS MAINTAINING SOME
CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS RESULTS IN HIGHS MONDAY
IN THE LOW 90S (UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST)...WITH MID 90S BY TUESDAY
INLAND...AND UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE COASTLINES. HIGHS OF THESE
MAGNITUDES WOULD AVERAGE ABOUT +1.5 ST DEV ABOVE SEASONAL
MEANS...AND COULD BE THE WARMEST READINGS SINCE JULY 23. LOWS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL
SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR TUE NGT/WED...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP
TOWARD THE AREA...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM DESPITE
LACKING MOISTURE AND A WEAKENING FRONT. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE
UPR 80S TO LWR 90S UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND LGT WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA AND MOST PRECIP MISSING THE
FA. AFOREMENTIONED SFC FRONT WASHES OUT OVR THE CAROLINAS WHILE HI
PRES BLDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE MID ATLANTIC. EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A SHRA/TSTM DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HRS EACH DAY. HI TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR TODAY...PATCHY LIGHT FOG AND THIN STRATUS ACROSS THE ERN
2/3RDS OF THE AREA CAUSING MVFR/BRIEF IFR AT KECG/KSBY...AND OTHER
AIRPORTS IN THE AREA. FOG/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT/DISSIPATE QUICKLY
AFTER 12Z...AS VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH SCT MID- HIGH CLOUDS
(DECKS 4-6K FT AGL). SLY WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10-12 KT.
EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE PIEDMONT...WHERE STRATUS APPEARS TO BE
MORE CONSENTRATED...AND MAY TAKE TIL 14-15Z TO LIFT/DISSIPATE.
ANTICIPATE ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH AND WEST OF KRIC.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK.
THE RESULT IS ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THRU TUES. ONLY PATCHY FOG EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURS AS
THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC HAS RESULTED IN SLY WINDS
OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING. GRADIENT AND SLY CHANNELING OVER THE
BAY HAVE RESULTED IN SPEEDS OF 10-15 KT...WITH WAVES BUILDING TO 2-3
FT. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SCA THRU EARLY MORNING BEFORE
SPEEDS WANE MID-LATE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER
THE WRN ATLANTIC TODAY THRU MON AS SLY WINDS PERSIST. WARM WATERS
WILL AGAIN RESULT IN SLY CHANNELING TONIGHT...WITH A FEW GUSTS
APPROACHING 20 KT. PERSISTENT SLY WINDS 15-20 KT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 3-4 FT...HIGHEST 20 NM OUT. WAVES 2-3 FT
TONIGHT...HIGHEST IN THE MIDDLE BAY. FLOW BECOMES SWLY TUES AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WINDS AVG 10-15 KT TUES WITH
SEAS 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE TUES
NIGHT-WEDS. SCA CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO A LACK OF
CAA/SURGE POST FRONTAL. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDS NIGHT THRU THE
END OF THE WEEK AS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...SAM/WRS
MARINE...SAM








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 311554
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1154 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF THIS WEEK. THIS RESULTS IN AN INCREASE OF HEAT AND
HUMIDITY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND SETTLES OVER THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT ORIENTED ALONG AND JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE, A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WAS PUSHING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES TOWARDS SE ONTARIO. THE SE RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING DEEP SSW FLOW ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA.

A 20-30% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FROM THE PIEDMONT TO THE LOWER MD
EASTERN SHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS BEST FORCING
SHUNTS CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TOWARDS NORTHERN VA/SE PA AND INTO THE
NORTHEAST THIS AFTN/TNGT. OTHERWISE...MOIST S-SW FLOW BRINGING A VERY
WARM AND MODERATELY HUMID AFTERNOON UNDER A PARTLY SUNNY SKY. BUMPED
HIGHS UP SLIGHTLY PER LATEST OBS...YIELDING HIGHS FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 80S ON THE EASTERN SHORE AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO
AROUND 90/LOW 90S WEST OF THE BAY.

MILD AND MUGGY ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH ANY SHRAS OVER/NEAR THE
LOCAL AREA QUICKLY DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. OTHERWISE,
LOOK FOR EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY.
FORCING WILL BE LIMITED MONDAY AND THE AVAILABILITY OF A CONVECTIVE
TRIGGER WILL BE LACKING. GIVEN THIS...POPS SHOULD BE NO HIGHER THAN
20%...AND THIS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND E OF I-95...AS W/SW
LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION OVER THE PIEDMONT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AN ISO SHOWER/TSTM COULD DRIFT IN
FROM THE NW LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL PARTLY SUNNY AND
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

THE MORE NOTABLE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE BUILDING HEAT. THICKNESS
TOOLS/850MB TEMPS/STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ARE BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON
THE LIKELIHOOD OF HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE 90S INLAND MONDAY/TUESDAY.
THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THIS TREND AS WELL AS MAINTAINING SOME
CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS RESULTS IN HIGHS MONDAY
IN THE LOW 90S (UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST)...WITH MID 90S BY TUESDAY
INLAND...AND UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE COASTLINES. HIGHS OF THESE
MAGNITUDES WOULD AVERAGE ABOUT +1.5 ST DEV ABOVE SEASONAL
MEANS...AND COULD BE THE WARMEST READINGS SINCE JULY 23. LOWS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL
SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR TUE NGT/WED...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP
TOWARD THE AREA...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM DESPITE
LACKING MOISTURE AND A WEAKENING FRONT. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE
UPR 80S TO LWR 90S UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND LGT WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA AND MOST PRECIP MISSING THE
FA. AFOREMENTIONED SFC FRONT WASHES OUT OVR THE CAROLINAS WHILE HI
PRES BLDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE MID ATLANTIC. EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A SHRA/TSTM DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HRS EACH DAY. HI TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR TODAY...PATCHY LIGHT FOG AND THIN STRATUS ACROSS THE ERN
2/3RDS OF THE AREA CAUSING MVFR/BRIEF IFR AT KECG/KSBY...AND OTHER
AIRPORTS IN THE AREA. FOG/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT/DISSIPATE QUICKLY
AFTER 12Z...AS VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH SCT MID- HIGH CLOUDS
(DECKS 4-6K FT AGL). SLY WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10-12 KT.
EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE PIEDMONT...WHERE STRATUS APPEARS TO BE
MORE CONSENTRATED...AND MAY TAKE TIL 14-15Z TO LIFT/DISSIPATE.
ANTICIPATE ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH AND WEST OF KRIC.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK.
THE RESULT IS ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THRU TUES. ONLY PATCHY FOG EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURS AS
THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC HAS RESULTED IN SLY WINDS
OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING. GRADIENT AND SLY CHANNELING OVER THE
BAY HAVE RESULTED IN SPEEDS OF 10-15 KT...WITH WAVES BUILDING TO 2-3
FT. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SCA THRU EARLY MORNING BEFORE
SPEEDS WANE MID-LATE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER
THE WRN ATLANTIC TODAY THRU MON AS SLY WINDS PERSIST. WARM WATERS
WILL AGAIN RESULT IN SLY CHANNELING TONIGHT...WITH A FEW GUSTS
APPROACHING 20 KT. PERSISTENT SLY WINDS 15-20 KT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 3-4 FT...HIGHEST 20 NM OUT. WAVES 2-3 FT
TONIGHT...HIGHEST IN THE MIDDLE BAY. FLOW BECOMES SWLY TUES AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WINDS AVG 10-15 KT TUES WITH
SEAS 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE TUES
NIGHT-WEDS. SCA CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO A LACK OF
CAA/SURGE POST FRONTAL. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDS NIGHT THRU THE
END OF THE WEEK AS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...SAM/WRS
MARINE...SAM








000
FXUS61 KLWX 311418
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1018 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN FOR THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIPRES OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE CONUS THIS MRNG. THE ERN SEABOARD
W/IN WARM/HUMID S/SWLY FLOW...AHD OF A CDFNT ACRS SRN CNDA.
STLT/WATER VAPOR IMGRY DEPICT A STREAM OF MSTR AHD OF THE
CDFNT...EMINATING FM THE GLFMEX UP ALONG THE APLCHNS TO THE UPR
OHVLY/ERN GRTLKS. PWAT W/IN THIS ZONE AOA 2 INCHES.

MRNG LWX RAOB DEPICTS AN INVSN ARND H9...BUT A VERY UNSTBL
ENVIRONMENT ABV THAT. DAYTIME HEATING SHUD BE ABLE TO ERODE THE
INVSN...BUT WL AT LEAST HOLD THINGS IN CHECK FOR A LTL WHILE. A
PIECE OF ENERGY HAS BKN OFF FM MAIN STREAM...PROVIDING SHRA TO THE
PTMC HIGHLANDS. RECENT HRRR RUNS SUGGEST THIS WL MAKE IT TO THE
CATOCTINS BEFORE DSPTG...LKLY A RESULT OF THE INVSN. WHILE FULL
SUN TEMPS IN THE MID 90S...ADVANCING CLDCVR LKLY WL KEEP MAXT LWR
THAN THAT. UPDTD TEMPS TO LTST LAMP SINCE POTL CERTAINLY THERE FOR
TEMPS HIER THAN MID-UPR 80S.

USING A TEMP OF 90F AND DEWPTS IN THE LWR 70S...SHUD HV 2000-2500
J/KG CAPE BY LT DAY. BUT...FORCING WL COME IN THE WAY OF PVA/MID
LVL 20-30 KT FLOW...AND THAT WL HOLD OFF TIL AFTR 18Z FOR THE
MTNS...AND CLSR TO 00Z FOR THE CSTL PLAIN. ALSO NEED TO BE MINDFUL
OF THE DIFF HTG BNDRY...WHICH CUD BE ANTHR SOURCE OF INITIATION.
CERTAINLY HV THE DOWNDRAFT POTL FOR STRONG STORMS TDA...BUT DONT
THINK WE/LL BE ABLE TO ACHIEVE FULL POTL. CANNOT RULE OUT LCL WET
MICROBURSTS...BUT BELIEVE THEY WL BE HIT-OR-MISS IN NATURE.

AMPLE MSTR WL ALSO LEAD TO HVY RAINERS...THE OTHER THREAT THIS PM.
RAFL RATES WL BE SUFFICIENT TO LEAD TO A LCL FLASH FLOOD THREAT...
SPCLY UNDER TRAINING CELLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER THE EVE CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED OFF AND MOVED EAST...
ANOTHER REGIONAL BATCH OF LIGHT/MOD RANGE IS TAGGED BY NEAR TERM
GUIDANCE AS MOVING ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE AS WELL - KEEPING
PRECIP CHANCES ALIVE INTO EARLY MON. AS THE BACK END OF THIS
FEATURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH...PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE
LOW CHANCE RANGE THRU MON AFTN/EVE ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA
BUT MAINLY OF A LIGHT/SCTD NATURE...OUTSIDE OF A FEW TSTMS. THE
RELATIVE LACK OF ACTIVITY AND CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST-TO-EAST
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE U80S AND SOME L90S FOR THE
AREA ON MON AFTN...W/ DEWPOINTS STANDING PAT IN THE U60S/L70S -
ANOTHER MUGGY DAY FOR THE AREA.

WEAK RIDGING CROSSES THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...MAKING FOR A REPRIEVE IN THUNDERSTORMS FOR 12-18 HRS. WITH
THE BERMUDA HIGH IN PLACE...EXPECT TUESDAY TO HAVE THE HIGHEST
TEMPERATURE DAY SINCE JULY. MAX TEMPS LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE TUESDAY AND CROSSES THAT NIGHT.
WITH PLENTY OF ENERGY FROM THE HOT DAY...EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER...PARTICULAR FOR WRN ZONES THAT ARE PROGGED TO GET
THE EVENING ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND WITH CONTINENTAL AIR (NOT CANADIAN)
SO TEMPERATURE REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT MAX TEMPS AROUND 90F
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. RETURN FLOW AND ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS
LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MRNG FLGT RESTRICTIONS HV CLRD ACRS THE TERMINALS. SCTD SHRA/TSRA
XPCTD TO DVLP LATER TDA INTO THIS EVNG. LCL IFR PSBL. SCT NATURE
OF THE THREAT LENDS TO VCTS IN TAF ATTM. MORE SPECIFIC
RESTRICTIONS WL BE PLACED INTO FCST WHEN/WHERE APPROPRIATE.

SLY WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO MON...ALONG W/ A FEW HIT/MISS SHOWERS
AS WELL THRU MON EVE.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE/VFR TUESDAY ON A HOT DAY (MAX TEMPS IN THE MID
90S). SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE/VFR OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL
MORNING FOG MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY FLOW ACRS THE MARINE AREA SUN-MON. GUSTS TAFTN WL APPROACH SCA
LIMITS. AM CONSIDERING POSTING ADVY FOR THE AFTN-EVNG. FLOW PTTN
CONTS INTO MON.

SUB SCA SWLY FLOW MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT
BRINGS WLY FLOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DEPARTURES ON THE UPR TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER AND MOST OF THE BAY
HOVERING AROUND 1 FT. LWTV2/SLIM2 ONLY 3/4 FT ABOVE NORMAL. BASED
ON CURRENT TRENDS...THE CURRENT TIDE CYCLE WILL NOT CAUSE
ISSUES...ALTHOUGH ITS MIGHTY CLOSE TO ADVY AT ANNAPOLIS.

WINDS WILL REMAIN SLY THRU THE DAY. THE PM TIDE IS THE HIGHER ONE
ASTRONOMICALLY...SO WL NEED TO CONSIDER ADVYS. WL CONT TO MONITOR.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...BAJ
AVIATION...HTS/GMS/BAJ
MARINE...HTS/GMS/BAJ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 311418
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1018 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN FOR THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIPRES OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE CONUS THIS MRNG. THE ERN SEABOARD
W/IN WARM/HUMID S/SWLY FLOW...AHD OF A CDFNT ACRS SRN CNDA.
STLT/WATER VAPOR IMGRY DEPICT A STREAM OF MSTR AHD OF THE
CDFNT...EMINATING FM THE GLFMEX UP ALONG THE APLCHNS TO THE UPR
OHVLY/ERN GRTLKS. PWAT W/IN THIS ZONE AOA 2 INCHES.

MRNG LWX RAOB DEPICTS AN INVSN ARND H9...BUT A VERY UNSTBL
ENVIRONMENT ABV THAT. DAYTIME HEATING SHUD BE ABLE TO ERODE THE
INVSN...BUT WL AT LEAST HOLD THINGS IN CHECK FOR A LTL WHILE. A
PIECE OF ENERGY HAS BKN OFF FM MAIN STREAM...PROVIDING SHRA TO THE
PTMC HIGHLANDS. RECENT HRRR RUNS SUGGEST THIS WL MAKE IT TO THE
CATOCTINS BEFORE DSPTG...LKLY A RESULT OF THE INVSN. WHILE FULL
SUN TEMPS IN THE MID 90S...ADVANCING CLDCVR LKLY WL KEEP MAXT LWR
THAN THAT. UPDTD TEMPS TO LTST LAMP SINCE POTL CERTAINLY THERE FOR
TEMPS HIER THAN MID-UPR 80S.

USING A TEMP OF 90F AND DEWPTS IN THE LWR 70S...SHUD HV 2000-2500
J/KG CAPE BY LT DAY. BUT...FORCING WL COME IN THE WAY OF PVA/MID
LVL 20-30 KT FLOW...AND THAT WL HOLD OFF TIL AFTR 18Z FOR THE
MTNS...AND CLSR TO 00Z FOR THE CSTL PLAIN. ALSO NEED TO BE MINDFUL
OF THE DIFF HTG BNDRY...WHICH CUD BE ANTHR SOURCE OF INITIATION.
CERTAINLY HV THE DOWNDRAFT POTL FOR STRONG STORMS TDA...BUT DONT
THINK WE/LL BE ABLE TO ACHIEVE FULL POTL. CANNOT RULE OUT LCL WET
MICROBURSTS...BUT BELIEVE THEY WL BE HIT-OR-MISS IN NATURE.

AMPLE MSTR WL ALSO LEAD TO HVY RAINERS...THE OTHER THREAT THIS PM.
RAFL RATES WL BE SUFFICIENT TO LEAD TO A LCL FLASH FLOOD THREAT...
SPCLY UNDER TRAINING CELLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER THE EVE CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED OFF AND MOVED EAST...
ANOTHER REGIONAL BATCH OF LIGHT/MOD RANGE IS TAGGED BY NEAR TERM
GUIDANCE AS MOVING ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE AS WELL - KEEPING
PRECIP CHANCES ALIVE INTO EARLY MON. AS THE BACK END OF THIS
FEATURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH...PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE
LOW CHANCE RANGE THRU MON AFTN/EVE ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA
BUT MAINLY OF A LIGHT/SCTD NATURE...OUTSIDE OF A FEW TSTMS. THE
RELATIVE LACK OF ACTIVITY AND CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST-TO-EAST
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE U80S AND SOME L90S FOR THE
AREA ON MON AFTN...W/ DEWPOINTS STANDING PAT IN THE U60S/L70S -
ANOTHER MUGGY DAY FOR THE AREA.

WEAK RIDGING CROSSES THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...MAKING FOR A REPRIEVE IN THUNDERSTORMS FOR 12-18 HRS. WITH
THE BERMUDA HIGH IN PLACE...EXPECT TUESDAY TO HAVE THE HIGHEST
TEMPERATURE DAY SINCE JULY. MAX TEMPS LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE TUESDAY AND CROSSES THAT NIGHT.
WITH PLENTY OF ENERGY FROM THE HOT DAY...EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER...PARTICULAR FOR WRN ZONES THAT ARE PROGGED TO GET
THE EVENING ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND WITH CONTINENTAL AIR (NOT CANADIAN)
SO TEMPERATURE REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT MAX TEMPS AROUND 90F
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. RETURN FLOW AND ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS
LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MRNG FLGT RESTRICTIONS HV CLRD ACRS THE TERMINALS. SCTD SHRA/TSRA
XPCTD TO DVLP LATER TDA INTO THIS EVNG. LCL IFR PSBL. SCT NATURE
OF THE THREAT LENDS TO VCTS IN TAF ATTM. MORE SPECIFIC
RESTRICTIONS WL BE PLACED INTO FCST WHEN/WHERE APPROPRIATE.

SLY WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO MON...ALONG W/ A FEW HIT/MISS SHOWERS
AS WELL THRU MON EVE.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE/VFR TUESDAY ON A HOT DAY (MAX TEMPS IN THE MID
90S). SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE/VFR OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL
MORNING FOG MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY FLOW ACRS THE MARINE AREA SUN-MON. GUSTS TAFTN WL APPROACH SCA
LIMITS. AM CONSIDERING POSTING ADVY FOR THE AFTN-EVNG. FLOW PTTN
CONTS INTO MON.

SUB SCA SWLY FLOW MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT
BRINGS WLY FLOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DEPARTURES ON THE UPR TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER AND MOST OF THE BAY
HOVERING AROUND 1 FT. LWTV2/SLIM2 ONLY 3/4 FT ABOVE NORMAL. BASED
ON CURRENT TRENDS...THE CURRENT TIDE CYCLE WILL NOT CAUSE
ISSUES...ALTHOUGH ITS MIGHTY CLOSE TO ADVY AT ANNAPOLIS.

WINDS WILL REMAIN SLY THRU THE DAY. THE PM TIDE IS THE HIGHER ONE
ASTRONOMICALLY...SO WL NEED TO CONSIDER ADVYS. WL CONT TO MONITOR.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...BAJ
AVIATION...HTS/GMS/BAJ
MARINE...HTS/GMS/BAJ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS








000
FXUS61 KRNK 311412
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1012 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL STAY BETWEEN A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A COMPLEX LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT FINALLY
ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH BY THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM EDT SUNDAY...

INITIAL BAND OF EARLY MORNING SHOWERS HAS ALREADY FADED UPON
CROSSING THE BLUE RIDGE SO UPDATED TO CUT BACK ON POPS THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. ALSO EXPECTING MORE SUNSHINE ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION THIS MORNING PER LATEST VISIBLE PICS WITH THE MAIN AXIS OF
DEEP MOISTURE REMAINING WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A BIT MORE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN SW FLOW AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOWING CAPPING JUST OFF
THE SURFACE AND A MORE SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL INVERSION ABOVE WHICH
SHOULD ACT TO DETER ANY WIDESPREAD ADDED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
UNTIL PERHAPS EARLY THIS EVENING AT BEST.

OTRW APPEARS BETTER AFTERNOON CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
BLUE RIDGE PER LOW LEVEL SW FLOW...HIGHER THETA-E AND FORECAST
INSTABILITY...AS WELL AS OVER THE NW WHERE THE UPPER SHEAR AXIS
LOOKS TO FOLD INTO LATE BEHIND THE PASSING WAVE FROM THIS MORNING.
ALSO SOME ADDITION OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ON THE EDGE OF THE FAR
WESTERN CLOUD SHIELD MAY ALONG WITH OROGRPAHICS AID INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT AT LEAST ON A SCATTERED BASIS. THUS BASICALLY KEPT
GOING LOW LIKELY POPS IN THESE SPOTS WHILE TRIMMING BACK OVER THE
PIEDMONT WHERE MORE UNDER THE RESIDUAL RIDGE AND WITHOUT MUCH
FOCUS FOR NOW SIMILAR TO THE LATEST HRRR.

THICKNESS OFF 12Z RAOBS REMAINS QUITE WARM...AND GIVEN A MILD
START INCLUDING MORE HEATING EARLY...WOULD EXPECT READINGS OUT
EAST TO POSSIBLY REACH 90/LOW 90S WITH MID/UPPER 80S ELSW FROM THE
BLUE RIDGE EAST. SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER FAR WEST PER CLOUDS BUT
EVEN THERE APPEARS UPPER 70S/LOW 80S LIKELY.

LARGER BAND OF SHOWERS WILL PIVOT ENOUGH TO REACH SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA TONIGHT...SIMILAR TO ORIENTATION OF WPC QPF FORECAST AND
THE 00Z GFS...SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE 00Z NAM. HUMID AIR
MASS AND VERY MILD DEW POINTS WILL RESULT IN LITTLE COOLING
TONIGHT. USED WARMER MET GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...

PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL PRODUCE TROUGHING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST BY MONDAY MORNING. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. THESE UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL SHAPE THE TIMING
OF CONVECTION.

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY MONDAY MORNING...ENHANCING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS IN
THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE SUBTROPICAL BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE. A VERY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE LABOR
DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 90S IN THE PIEDMONT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SOLAR HEATING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS. RAINFALL WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AS THE SUN SETS AND SHOULD SEE
DRY...ALBEIT WARM AND MUGGY...CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 60S IN
THE WEST TO THE AROUND 70 IN THE EAST.

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES TUESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES. BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...WHERE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE LOCATED.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
LOWER 90S IN THE PIEDMONT.

MODEL TREND HAVE BEEN SLOWING THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND EXPECT THE
COLD FRONT WILL STALL FURTHER NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. LOWS WILL FALL
INTO THE MID 60S TO THE LOW 70S TUESDAY NIGHT.

KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY ALONG THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WHILE...HIGH PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES SHOULD KEEP THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA DRY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
WILL BE FROM THE LOWER 80S IN THE WEST TO AROUND 90 DEGREES IN THE
EAST. SLOWLY DRY THINGS OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
TO NEAR 70 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...RESULTING
IN BOTH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND WEAKER WINDS ALOFT. THIS WILL MAKE
FOR MORE STABLE CONDITIONS THAT WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DISORGANIZED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY RAINFALL WHICH
DEVELOPS WILL BE DRIVEN MAINLY BY DAYTIME HEATING...WHICH WILL ALLOW
THIS ACTIVITY TO FIZZLE AFTER SUNSET.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON THURSDAY...
RESULTING IN A WEAK WEDGING PATTERN WITH EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE DRIEST DAY OF THE PERIOD.

WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SINKS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. STRONGER FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC
WILL RESULT IN INCREASED MOISTURE...AND WILL EXPECT SPOTTY SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 735 AM EDT SUNDAY...

SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED AN AREA OF IFR CLOUDS SPREADING NORTH
OUT OF NORTH CAROLINA. THESE CLOUDS MAY BRIEFLY REACH KLYH OR KDAN
BEFORE 10AM.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING NORTH-
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING. EXPECT
RAIN AT KROA/KBCB AND KLWB THROUGH 14Z/10AM THIS MORNING. CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN VFR IN ALL BUT THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES
EAST. THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION THROUGH ABOUT
1PM/17Z...THEN MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. HRRR
GUIDANCE SHOWED THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH HEATING AND
RESULTING INSTABILITY HAS OCCURRED. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON THE
LOCATION OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ONCE THE PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...HIGH
AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ALONG WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN FOG FORMATION. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR
FOG ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

IMPULSES EXIT BY MONDAY LEAVING THE REGION IN BETWEEN THIS
EXITING SYSTEM AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR MORE IN THE WAY OF WIDESPREAD VFR ON MONDAY AFTER EARLY FOG
FADES...WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON
INCLUDING SPOTTY MVFR CONDITIONS.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS IT
APPROACHES FROM THE NW TUESDAY...THEN BETTER COVERAGE OF
SHRA/TSRA WEDNESDAY WITH THE FRONT PASSING...AND ACROSS THE SOUTH
THURSDAY WHERE THE BOUNDARY STALLS. HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING
AND SOUTHWARD POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY AT THIS POINT. THUS
APPEARS MAINLY VFR FOR NOW TUE-THU OUTSIDE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONVECTION AND TYPICAL EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE VALLEYS AND WHERE
EARLIER HEAVY RAIN OCCURRED.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...WILL
BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A PART HAS BEEN BACK-ORDERED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/JH
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...AMS
EQUIPMENT...AMS



000
FXUS61 KRNK 311144
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
744 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL STAY BETWEEN A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A COMPLEX LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT FINALLY
ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...

ELONGATED BAROCLINIC ZONE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER JET AND AXIS OF
VORTICITY THAT EXTENDS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO NEW
ENGLAND. UPPER RIDGE REMAINS PARKED OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.
BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE SHOWN ON WATER VAPOR AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGES WILL MAKE ONLY SLOW PROGRESS EAST INTO THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA BY MONDAY MORNING.

MODELS BRING CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER KENTUCKY AND
TENNESSEE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. NOT SURE
HOW FAR EAST THIS PRECIPITATION WILL GET. 06Z HRRR HAD REASONABLE
TIMING MOVING THE EASTERN EDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 8AM
SO WILL BE FOLLOWING THAT ALONG WITH RADAR TRENDS.

LARGER BAND OF SHOWERS WILL PIVOT ENOUGH TO REACH SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA TONIGHT...SIMILAR TO ORIENTATION OF WPC QPF FORECAST AND
THE 00Z GFS...SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE 00Z NAM.

4KM NAM AND HRRR DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE THIS
AFTERNOON...CLOSE TO THE EDGE OF THE THICKER CLOUD COVER. EXPECT
THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING AND INSTABILITY TODAY. STAYED CLOSER TO
BIAS CORRECTED MAV GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. HUMID AIR MASS
AND VERY MILD DEW POINTS WILL RESULT IN LITTLE COOLING TONIGHT. USED
WARMER MET GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...

PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL PRODUCE TROUGHING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST BY MONDAY MORNING. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. THESE UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL SHAPE THE TIMING
OF CONVECTION.

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY MONDAY MORNING...ENHANCING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS IN
THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE SUBTROPICAL BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE. A VERY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE LABOR
DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 90S IN THE PIEDMONT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SOLAR HEATING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS. RAINFALL WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AS THE SUN SETS AND SHOULD SEE
DRY...ALBEIT WARM AND MUGGY...CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 60S IN
THE WEST TO THE AROUND 70 IN THE EAST.

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES TUESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES. BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...WHERE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE LOCATED.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
LOWER 90S IN THE PIEDMONT.

MODEL TREND HAVE BEEN SLOWING THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND EXPECT THE
COLD FRONT WILL STALL FURTHER NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. LOWS WILL FALL
INTO THE MID 60S TO THE LOW 70S TUESDAY NIGHT.

KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY ALONG THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WHILE...HIGH PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES SHOULD KEEP THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA DRY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
WILL BE FROM THE LOWER 80S IN THE WEST TO AROUND 90 DEGREES IN THE
EAST. SLOWLY DRY THINGS OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
TO NEAR 70 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...RESULTING
IN BOTH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND WEAKER WINDS ALOFT. THIS WILL MAKE
FOR MORE STABLE CONDITIONS THAT WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DISORGANIZED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY RAINFALL WHICH
DEVELOPS WILL BE DRIVEN MAINLY BY DAYTIME HEATING...WHICH WILL ALLOW
THIS ACTIVITY TO FIZZLE AFTER SUNSET.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON THURSDAY...
RESULTING IN A WEAK WEDGING PATTERN WITH EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE DRIEST DAY OF THE PERIOD.

WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SINKS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. STRONGER FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC
WILL RESULT IN INCREASED MOISTURE...AND WILL EXPECT SPOTTY SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 735 AM EDT SUNDAY...

SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED AN AREA OF IFR CLOUDS SPREADING NORTH
OUT OF NORTH CAROLINA. THESE CLOUDS MAY BRIEFLY REACH KLYH OR KDAN
BEFORE 10AM.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING NORTH-
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING. EXPECT
RAIN AT KROA/KBCB AND KLWB THROUGH 14Z/10AM THIS MORNING. CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN VFR IN ALL BUT THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES
EAST. THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION THROUGH ABOUT
1PM/17Z...THEN MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. HRRR
GUIDANCE SHOWED THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH HEATING AND
RESULTING INSTABILITY HAS OCCURRED. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON THE
LOCATION OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ONCE THE PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...HIGH
AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ALONG WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN FOG FORMATION. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR
FOG ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

IMPULSES EXIT BY MONDAY LEAVING THE REGION IN BETWEEN THIS
EXITING SYSTEM AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR MORE IN THE WAY OF WIDESPREAD VFR ON MONDAY AFTER EARLY FOG
FADES...WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON
INCLUDING SPOTTY MVFR CONDITIONS.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS IT
APPROACHES FROM THE NW TUESDAY...THEN BETTER COVERAGE OF
SHRA/TSRA WEDNESDAY WITH THE FRONT PASSING...AND ACROSS THE SOUTH
THURSDAY WHERE THE BOUNDARY STALLS. HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING
AND SOUTHWARD POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY AT THIS POINT. THUS
APPEARS MAINLY VFR FOR NOW TUE-THU OUTSIDE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONVECTION AND TYPICAL EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE VALLEYS AND WHERE
EARLIER HEAVY RAIN OCCURRED.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...WILL
BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A PART HAS BEEN BACK-ORDERED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...AMS
EQUIPMENT...AMS



000
FXUS61 KRNK 311144
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
744 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL STAY BETWEEN A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A COMPLEX LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT FINALLY
ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...

ELONGATED BAROCLINIC ZONE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER JET AND AXIS OF
VORTICITY THAT EXTENDS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO NEW
ENGLAND. UPPER RIDGE REMAINS PARKED OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.
BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE SHOWN ON WATER VAPOR AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGES WILL MAKE ONLY SLOW PROGRESS EAST INTO THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA BY MONDAY MORNING.

MODELS BRING CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER KENTUCKY AND
TENNESSEE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. NOT SURE
HOW FAR EAST THIS PRECIPITATION WILL GET. 06Z HRRR HAD REASONABLE
TIMING MOVING THE EASTERN EDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 8AM
SO WILL BE FOLLOWING THAT ALONG WITH RADAR TRENDS.

LARGER BAND OF SHOWERS WILL PIVOT ENOUGH TO REACH SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA TONIGHT...SIMILAR TO ORIENTATION OF WPC QPF FORECAST AND
THE 00Z GFS...SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE 00Z NAM.

4KM NAM AND HRRR DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE THIS
AFTERNOON...CLOSE TO THE EDGE OF THE THICKER CLOUD COVER. EXPECT
THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING AND INSTABILITY TODAY. STAYED CLOSER TO
BIAS CORRECTED MAV GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. HUMID AIR MASS
AND VERY MILD DEW POINTS WILL RESULT IN LITTLE COOLING TONIGHT. USED
WARMER MET GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...

PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL PRODUCE TROUGHING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST BY MONDAY MORNING. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. THESE UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL SHAPE THE TIMING
OF CONVECTION.

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY MONDAY MORNING...ENHANCING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS IN
THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE SUBTROPICAL BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE. A VERY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE LABOR
DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 90S IN THE PIEDMONT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SOLAR HEATING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS. RAINFALL WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AS THE SUN SETS AND SHOULD SEE
DRY...ALBEIT WARM AND MUGGY...CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 60S IN
THE WEST TO THE AROUND 70 IN THE EAST.

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES TUESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES. BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...WHERE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE LOCATED.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
LOWER 90S IN THE PIEDMONT.

MODEL TREND HAVE BEEN SLOWING THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND EXPECT THE
COLD FRONT WILL STALL FURTHER NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. LOWS WILL FALL
INTO THE MID 60S TO THE LOW 70S TUESDAY NIGHT.

KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY ALONG THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WHILE...HIGH PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES SHOULD KEEP THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA DRY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
WILL BE FROM THE LOWER 80S IN THE WEST TO AROUND 90 DEGREES IN THE
EAST. SLOWLY DRY THINGS OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
TO NEAR 70 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...RESULTING
IN BOTH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND WEAKER WINDS ALOFT. THIS WILL MAKE
FOR MORE STABLE CONDITIONS THAT WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DISORGANIZED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY RAINFALL WHICH
DEVELOPS WILL BE DRIVEN MAINLY BY DAYTIME HEATING...WHICH WILL ALLOW
THIS ACTIVITY TO FIZZLE AFTER SUNSET.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON THURSDAY...
RESULTING IN A WEAK WEDGING PATTERN WITH EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE DRIEST DAY OF THE PERIOD.

WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SINKS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. STRONGER FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC
WILL RESULT IN INCREASED MOISTURE...AND WILL EXPECT SPOTTY SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 735 AM EDT SUNDAY...

SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED AN AREA OF IFR CLOUDS SPREADING NORTH
OUT OF NORTH CAROLINA. THESE CLOUDS MAY BRIEFLY REACH KLYH OR KDAN
BEFORE 10AM.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING NORTH-
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING. EXPECT
RAIN AT KROA/KBCB AND KLWB THROUGH 14Z/10AM THIS MORNING. CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN VFR IN ALL BUT THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES
EAST. THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION THROUGH ABOUT
1PM/17Z...THEN MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. HRRR
GUIDANCE SHOWED THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH HEATING AND
RESULTING INSTABILITY HAS OCCURRED. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON THE
LOCATION OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ONCE THE PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...HIGH
AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ALONG WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN FOG FORMATION. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR
FOG ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

IMPULSES EXIT BY MONDAY LEAVING THE REGION IN BETWEEN THIS
EXITING SYSTEM AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR MORE IN THE WAY OF WIDESPREAD VFR ON MONDAY AFTER EARLY FOG
FADES...WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON
INCLUDING SPOTTY MVFR CONDITIONS.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS IT
APPROACHES FROM THE NW TUESDAY...THEN BETTER COVERAGE OF
SHRA/TSRA WEDNESDAY WITH THE FRONT PASSING...AND ACROSS THE SOUTH
THURSDAY WHERE THE BOUNDARY STALLS. HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING
AND SOUTHWARD POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY AT THIS POINT. THUS
APPEARS MAINLY VFR FOR NOW TUE-THU OUTSIDE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONVECTION AND TYPICAL EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE VALLEYS AND WHERE
EARLIER HEAVY RAIN OCCURRED.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...WILL
BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A PART HAS BEEN BACK-ORDERED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...AMS
EQUIPMENT...AMS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 311142
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
742 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF THIS WEEK. THIS RESULTS IN AN INCREASE OF HEAT AND
HUMIDITY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND SETTLES OVER THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A MID/UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
MORNING...WITH A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES BACK
THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE N OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN
DEEP SSW FLOW ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TRIGGERED
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLIER. THIS
ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED OVERNIGHT AS THE WAVE HAS SHEARED APART.

THE REMNANT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS N OF THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. A
20-30% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FROM THE PIEDMONT TO THE LOWER MD
EASTERN SHORE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WARM AND
MODERATELY HUMID CONDITIONS UNDER A PARTLY SUNNY SKY. HIGHS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S...WITH MID 80S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY.
FORCING WILL BE LIMITED MONDAY AND THE AVAILABILITY OF A CONVECTIVE
TRIGGER WILL BE LACKING. GIVEN THIS...POPS SHOULD BE NO HIGHER THAN
20%...AND THIS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND E OF I-95...AS W/SW
LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION OVER THE PIEDMONT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AN ISO SHOWER/TSTM COULD DRIFT IN
FROM THE NW LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL PARTLY SUNNY AND
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

THE MORE NOTABLE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE BUILDING HEAT. THICKNESS
TOOLS/850MB TEMPS/STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ARE BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON
THE LIKELIHOOD OF HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE 90S INLAND MONDAY/TUESDAY.
THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THIS TREND AS WELL AS MAINTAINING SOME
CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS RESULTS IN HIGHS MONDAY
IN THE LOW 90S (UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST)...WITH MID 90S BY TUESDAY
INLAND...AND UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE COASTLINES. HIGHS OF THESE
MAGNITUDES WOULD AVERAGE ABOUT +1.5 ST DEV ABOVE SEASONAL
MEANS...AND COULD BE THE WARMEST READINGS SINCE JULY 23. LOWS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL
SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR TUE NGT/WED...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP
TOWARD THE AREA...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM DESPITE
LACKING MOISTURE AND A WEAKENING FRONT. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE
UPR 80S TO LWR 90S UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND LGT WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA AND MOST PRECIP MISSING THE
FA. AFOREMENTIONED SFC FRONT WASHES OUT OVR THE CAROLINAS WHILE HI
PRES BLDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE MID ATLANTIC. EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A SHRA/TSTM DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HRS EACH DAY. HI TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR TODAY...PATCHY LIGHT FOG AND THIN STRATUS ACROSS THE ERN
2/3RDS OF THE AREA CAUSING MVFR/BRIEF IFR AT KECG/KSBY...AND OTHER
AIRPORTS IN THE AREA. FOG/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT/DISSIPATE QUICKLY
AFTER 12Z...AS VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH SCT MID- HIGH CLOUDS
(DECKS 4-6K FT AGL). SLY WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10-12 KT.
EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE PIEDMONT...WHERE STRATUS APPEARS TO BE
MORE CONSENTRATED...AND MAY TAKE TIL 14-15Z TO LIFT/DISSIPATE.
ANTICIPATE ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH AND WEST OF KRIC.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK.
THE RESULT IS ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THRU TUES. ONLY PATCHY FOG EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURS AS
THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC HAS RESULTED IN SLY WINDS
OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING. GRADIENT AND SLY CHANNELING OVER THE
BAY HAVE RESULTED IN SPEEDS OF 10-15 KT...WITH WAVES BUILDING TO 2-3
FT. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SCA THRU EARLY MORNING BEFORE
SPEEDS WANE MID-LATE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER
THE WRN ATLANTIC TODAY THRU MON AS SLY WINDS PERSIST. WARM WATERS
WILL AGAIN RESULT IN SLY CHANNELING TONIGHT...WITH A FEW GUSTS
APPROACHING 20 KT. PERSISTENT SLY WINDS 15-20 KT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 3-4 FT...HIGHEST 20 NM OUT. WAVES 2-3 FT
TONIGHT...HIGHEST IN THE MIDDLE BAY. FLOW BECOMES SWLY TUES AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WINDS AVG 10-15 KT TUES WITH
SEAS 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE TUES
NIGHT-WEDS. SCA CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO A LACK OF
CAA/SURGE POST FRONTAL. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDS NIGHT THRU THE
END OF THE WEEK AS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...SAM/WRS
MARINE...SAM






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 311142
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
742 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF THIS WEEK. THIS RESULTS IN AN INCREASE OF HEAT AND
HUMIDITY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND SETTLES OVER THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A MID/UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
MORNING...WITH A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES BACK
THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE N OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN
DEEP SSW FLOW ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TRIGGERED
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLIER. THIS
ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED OVERNIGHT AS THE WAVE HAS SHEARED APART.

THE REMNANT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS N OF THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. A
20-30% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FROM THE PIEDMONT TO THE LOWER MD
EASTERN SHORE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WARM AND
MODERATELY HUMID CONDITIONS UNDER A PARTLY SUNNY SKY. HIGHS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S...WITH MID 80S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY.
FORCING WILL BE LIMITED MONDAY AND THE AVAILABILITY OF A CONVECTIVE
TRIGGER WILL BE LACKING. GIVEN THIS...POPS SHOULD BE NO HIGHER THAN
20%...AND THIS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND E OF I-95...AS W/SW
LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION OVER THE PIEDMONT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AN ISO SHOWER/TSTM COULD DRIFT IN
FROM THE NW LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL PARTLY SUNNY AND
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

THE MORE NOTABLE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE BUILDING HEAT. THICKNESS
TOOLS/850MB TEMPS/STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ARE BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON
THE LIKELIHOOD OF HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE 90S INLAND MONDAY/TUESDAY.
THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THIS TREND AS WELL AS MAINTAINING SOME
CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS RESULTS IN HIGHS MONDAY
IN THE LOW 90S (UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST)...WITH MID 90S BY TUESDAY
INLAND...AND UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE COASTLINES. HIGHS OF THESE
MAGNITUDES WOULD AVERAGE ABOUT +1.5 ST DEV ABOVE SEASONAL
MEANS...AND COULD BE THE WARMEST READINGS SINCE JULY 23. LOWS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL
SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR TUE NGT/WED...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP
TOWARD THE AREA...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM DESPITE
LACKING MOISTURE AND A WEAKENING FRONT. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE
UPR 80S TO LWR 90S UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND LGT WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA AND MOST PRECIP MISSING THE
FA. AFOREMENTIONED SFC FRONT WASHES OUT OVR THE CAROLINAS WHILE HI
PRES BLDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE MID ATLANTIC. EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A SHRA/TSTM DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HRS EACH DAY. HI TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR TODAY...PATCHY LIGHT FOG AND THIN STRATUS ACROSS THE ERN
2/3RDS OF THE AREA CAUSING MVFR/BRIEF IFR AT KECG/KSBY...AND OTHER
AIRPORTS IN THE AREA. FOG/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT/DISSIPATE QUICKLY
AFTER 12Z...AS VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH SCT MID- HIGH CLOUDS
(DECKS 4-6K FT AGL). SLY WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10-12 KT.
EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE PIEDMONT...WHERE STRATUS APPEARS TO BE
MORE CONSENTRATED...AND MAY TAKE TIL 14-15Z TO LIFT/DISSIPATE.
ANTICIPATE ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH AND WEST OF KRIC.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK.
THE RESULT IS ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THRU TUES. ONLY PATCHY FOG EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURS AS
THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC HAS RESULTED IN SLY WINDS
OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING. GRADIENT AND SLY CHANNELING OVER THE
BAY HAVE RESULTED IN SPEEDS OF 10-15 KT...WITH WAVES BUILDING TO 2-3
FT. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SCA THRU EARLY MORNING BEFORE
SPEEDS WANE MID-LATE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER
THE WRN ATLANTIC TODAY THRU MON AS SLY WINDS PERSIST. WARM WATERS
WILL AGAIN RESULT IN SLY CHANNELING TONIGHT...WITH A FEW GUSTS
APPROACHING 20 KT. PERSISTENT SLY WINDS 15-20 KT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 3-4 FT...HIGHEST 20 NM OUT. WAVES 2-3 FT
TONIGHT...HIGHEST IN THE MIDDLE BAY. FLOW BECOMES SWLY TUES AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WINDS AVG 10-15 KT TUES WITH
SEAS 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE TUES
NIGHT-WEDS. SCA CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO A LACK OF
CAA/SURGE POST FRONTAL. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDS NIGHT THRU THE
END OF THE WEEK AS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...SAM/WRS
MARINE...SAM







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 310815
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
415 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF THIS WEEK. THIS RESULTS IN AN INCREASE OF HEAT AND
HUMIDITY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND SETTLES OVER THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A MID/UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
MORNING...WITH A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES BACK
THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE N OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN
DEEP SSW FLOW ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TRIGGERED
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLIER. THIS
ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED OVERNIGHT AS THE WAVE HAS SHEARED APART.

THE REMNANT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS N OF THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. A
20-30% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FROM THE PIEDMONT TO THE LOWER MD
EASTERN SHORE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WARM AND
MODERATELY HUMID CONDITIONS UNDER A PARTLY SUNNY SKY. HIGHS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S...WITH MID 80S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY.
FORCING WILL BE LIMITED MONDAY AND THE AVAILABILITY OF A CONVECTIVE
TRIGGER WILL BE LACKING. GIVEN THIS...POPS SHOULD BE NO HIGHER THAN
20%...AND THIS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND E OF I-95...AS W/SW
LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION OVER THE PIEDMONT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AN ISO SHOWER/TSTM COULD DRIFT IN
FROM THE NW LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL PARTLY SUNNY AND
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

THE MORE NOTABLE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE BUILDING HEAT. THICKNESS
TOOLS/850MB TEMPS/STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ARE BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON
THE LIKELIHOOD OF HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE 90S INLAND MONDAY/TUESDAY.
THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THIS TREND AS WELL AS MAINTAINING SOME
CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS RESULTS IN HIGHS MONDAY
IN THE LOW 90S (UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST)...WITH MID 90S BY TUESDAY
INLAND...AND UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE COASTLINES. HIGHS OF THESE
MAGNITUDES WOULD AVERAGE ABOUT +1.5 ST DEV ABOVE SEASONAL
MEANS...AND COULD BE THE WARMEST READINGS SINCE JULY 23. LOWS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL
SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR TUE NGT/WED...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP
TOWARD THE AREA...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM DESPITE
LACKING MOISTURE AND A WEAKENING FRONT. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE
UPR 80S TO LWR 90S UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND LGT WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA AND MOST PRECIP MISSING THE
FA. AFOREMENTIONED SFC FRONT WASHES OUT OVR THE CAROLINAS WHILE HI
PRES BLDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE MID ATLANTIC. EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A SHRA/TSTM DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HRS EACH DAY. HI TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC HAS RESULTED IN RETURN FLOW OVER
THE LOCAL AREA. THIS HAS HELPED PUSH DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW 70S AT
THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS PRODUCED WINDS OF 5-8
KT AT THE TAF SITES...INHIBITING ANYTHING MORE THAN PATCHY MVFR FOG
OVER THE PIEDMONT INTO CNTRL VA. GUIDANCE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH
IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS...SO WENT MORE OPTIMISTIC IN LATEST SET OF
TAFS. OTHERWISE...HIGH CLOUDS AOA 25K FT AGL WILL STREAM OVER THE
REGION THIS MORNING. WHILE IFR STRATUS IS NOT ANTICIPATED...SCT-BKN
MID CLOUDS WITH DECKS 2-4K FT POSSIBLE FROM KRIC TO KORF.

FOR TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH SCT MID-HIGH CLOUDS (DECKS
4-6K FT AGL). SLY WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10-12 KT. ANTICIPATE ONLY
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND WEST OF
KRIC.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK.
THE RESULT IS ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THRU TUES. ONLY PATCHY FOG EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURS AS
THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC HAS RESULTED IN SLY WINDS
OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING. GRADIENT AND SLY CHANNELING OVER THE
BAY HAVE RESULTED IN SPEEDS OF 10-15 KT...WITH WAVES BUILDING TO 2-3
FT. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SCA THRU EARLY MORNING BEFORE
SPEEDS WANE MID-LATE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER
THE WRN ATLANTIC TODAY THRU MON AS SLY WINDS PERSIST. WARM WATERS
WILL AGAIN RESULT IN SLY CHANNELING TONIGHT...WITH A FEW GUSTS
APPROACHING 20 KT. PERSISTENT SLY WINDS 15-20 KT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 3-4 FT...HIGHEST 20 NM OUT. WAVES 2-3 FT
TONIGHT...HIGHEST IN THE MIDDLE BAY. FLOW BECOMES SWLY TUES AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WINDS AVG 10-15 KT TUES WITH
SEAS 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE TUES
NIGHT-WEDS. SCA CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO A LACK OF
CAA/SURGE POST FRONTAL. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDS NIGHT THRU THE
END OF THE WEEK AS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...SAM
MARINE...SAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 310815
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
415 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF THIS WEEK. THIS RESULTS IN AN INCREASE OF HEAT AND
HUMIDITY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND SETTLES OVER THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A MID/UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
MORNING...WITH A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES BACK
THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE N OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN
DEEP SSW FLOW ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TRIGGERED
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLIER. THIS
ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED OVERNIGHT AS THE WAVE HAS SHEARED APART.

THE REMNANT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS N OF THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. A
20-30% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FROM THE PIEDMONT TO THE LOWER MD
EASTERN SHORE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WARM AND
MODERATELY HUMID CONDITIONS UNDER A PARTLY SUNNY SKY. HIGHS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S...WITH MID 80S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY.
FORCING WILL BE LIMITED MONDAY AND THE AVAILABILITY OF A CONVECTIVE
TRIGGER WILL BE LACKING. GIVEN THIS...POPS SHOULD BE NO HIGHER THAN
20%...AND THIS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND E OF I-95...AS W/SW
LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION OVER THE PIEDMONT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AN ISO SHOWER/TSTM COULD DRIFT IN
FROM THE NW LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL PARTLY SUNNY AND
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

THE MORE NOTABLE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE BUILDING HEAT. THICKNESS
TOOLS/850MB TEMPS/STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ARE BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON
THE LIKELIHOOD OF HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE 90S INLAND MONDAY/TUESDAY.
THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THIS TREND AS WELL AS MAINTAINING SOME
CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS RESULTS IN HIGHS MONDAY
IN THE LOW 90S (UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST)...WITH MID 90S BY TUESDAY
INLAND...AND UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE COASTLINES. HIGHS OF THESE
MAGNITUDES WOULD AVERAGE ABOUT +1.5 ST DEV ABOVE SEASONAL
MEANS...AND COULD BE THE WARMEST READINGS SINCE JULY 23. LOWS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL
SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR TUE NGT/WED...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP
TOWARD THE AREA...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM DESPITE
LACKING MOISTURE AND A WEAKENING FRONT. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE
UPR 80S TO LWR 90S UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND LGT WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA AND MOST PRECIP MISSING THE
FA. AFOREMENTIONED SFC FRONT WASHES OUT OVR THE CAROLINAS WHILE HI
PRES BLDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE MID ATLANTIC. EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A SHRA/TSTM DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HRS EACH DAY. HI TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC HAS RESULTED IN RETURN FLOW OVER
THE LOCAL AREA. THIS HAS HELPED PUSH DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW 70S AT
THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS PRODUCED WINDS OF 5-8
KT AT THE TAF SITES...INHIBITING ANYTHING MORE THAN PATCHY MVFR FOG
OVER THE PIEDMONT INTO CNTRL VA. GUIDANCE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH
IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS...SO WENT MORE OPTIMISTIC IN LATEST SET OF
TAFS. OTHERWISE...HIGH CLOUDS AOA 25K FT AGL WILL STREAM OVER THE
REGION THIS MORNING. WHILE IFR STRATUS IS NOT ANTICIPATED...SCT-BKN
MID CLOUDS WITH DECKS 2-4K FT POSSIBLE FROM KRIC TO KORF.

FOR TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH SCT MID-HIGH CLOUDS (DECKS
4-6K FT AGL). SLY WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10-12 KT. ANTICIPATE ONLY
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND WEST OF
KRIC.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK.
THE RESULT IS ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THRU TUES. ONLY PATCHY FOG EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURS AS
THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC HAS RESULTED IN SLY WINDS
OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING. GRADIENT AND SLY CHANNELING OVER THE
BAY HAVE RESULTED IN SPEEDS OF 10-15 KT...WITH WAVES BUILDING TO 2-3
FT. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SCA THRU EARLY MORNING BEFORE
SPEEDS WANE MID-LATE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER
THE WRN ATLANTIC TODAY THRU MON AS SLY WINDS PERSIST. WARM WATERS
WILL AGAIN RESULT IN SLY CHANNELING TONIGHT...WITH A FEW GUSTS
APPROACHING 20 KT. PERSISTENT SLY WINDS 15-20 KT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 3-4 FT...HIGHEST 20 NM OUT. WAVES 2-3 FT
TONIGHT...HIGHEST IN THE MIDDLE BAY. FLOW BECOMES SWLY TUES AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WINDS AVG 10-15 KT TUES WITH
SEAS 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE TUES
NIGHT-WEDS. SCA CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO A LACK OF
CAA/SURGE POST FRONTAL. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDS NIGHT THRU THE
END OF THE WEEK AS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...SAM
MARINE...SAM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 310805
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
405 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL STAY BETWEEN A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A COMPLEX LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT FINALLY
ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...

ELONGATED BAROCLINIC ZONE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER JET AND AXIS OF
VORTICITY THAT EXTENDS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO NEW
ENGLAND. UPPER RIDGE REMAINS PARKED OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.
BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE SHOWN ON WATER VAPOR AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGES WILL MAKE ONLY SLOW PROGRESS EAST INTO THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA BY MONDAY MORNING.

MODELS BRING CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER KENTUCKY AND
TENNESSEE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. NOT SURE
HOW FAR EAST THIS PRECIPITATION WILL GET. 06Z HRRR HAD REASONABLE
TIMING MOVING THE EASTERN EDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 8AM
SO WILL BE FOLLOWING THAT ALONG WITH RADAR TRENDS.

LARGER BAND OF SHOWERS WILL PIVOT ENOUGH TO REACH SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA TONIGHT...SIMILAR TO ORIENTATION OF WPC QPF FORECAST AND
THE 00Z GFS...SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE 00Z NAM.

4KM NAM AND HRRR DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE THIS
AFTERNOON...CLOSE TO THE EDGE OF THE THICKER CLOUD COVER. EXPECT
THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING AND INSTABILITY TODAY. STAYED CLOSER TO
BIAS CORRECTED MAV GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. HUMID AIR MASS
AND VERY MILD DEW POINTS WILL RESULT IN LITTLE COOLING TONIGHT. USED
WARMER MET GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...

PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL PRODUCE TROUGHING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST BY MONDAY MORNING. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. THESE UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL SHAPE THE TIMING
OF CONVECTION.

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY MONDAY MORNING...ENHANCING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS IN
THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE SUBTROPICAL BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE. A VERY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE LABOR
DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 90S IN THE PIEDMONT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SOLAR HEATING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS. RAINFALL WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AS THE SUN SETS AND SHOULD SEE
DRY...ALBEIT WARM AND MUGGY...CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 60S IN
THE WEST TO THE AROUND 70 IN THE EAST.

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES TUESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES. BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...WHERE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE LOCATED.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
LOWER 90S IN THE PIEDMONT.

MODEL TREND HAVE BEEN SLOWING THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND EXPECT THE
COLD FRONT WILL STALL FURTHER NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. LOWS WILL FALL
INTO THE MID 60S TO THE LOW 70S TUESDAY NIGHT.

KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY ALONG THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WHILE...HIGH PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES SHOULD KEEP THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA DRY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
WILL BE FROM THE LOWER 80S IN THE WEST TO AROUND 90 DEGREES IN THE
EAST. SLOWLY DRY THINGS OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
TO NEAR 70 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...RESULTING
IN BOTH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND WEAKER WINDS ALOFT. THIS WILL MAKE
FOR MORE STABLE CONDITIONS THAT WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DISORGANIZED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY RAINFALL WHICH
DEVELOPS WILL BE DRIVEN MAINLY BY DAYTIME HEATING...WHICH WILL ALLOW
THIS ACTIVITY TO FIZZLE AFTER SUNSET.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON THURSDAY...
RESULTING IN A WEAK WEDGING PATTERN WITH EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE DRIEST DAY OF THE PERIOD.

WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SINKS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. STRONGER FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC
WILL RESULT IN INCREASED MOISTURE...AND WILL EXPECT SPOTTY SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 125 AM EDT SUNDAY...

SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED AN EXPANSIVE BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AXIS OF VORTICITY ALONG
THIS SAME CORRIDOR WILL GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
AND TONIGHT. ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TENNESSEE
AND OHIO VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST IN TO
WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA TODAY. LOWER CONFIDENCE AS TO HOW FAR
EAST THIS PRECIPITATION WILL GET BY 00Z/8PM. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE KBCB AND KROA TAFS. ALSO KEPT KLYH AND
KDAN DRY. HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT KLWB AND KBLF WILL HAVE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

MODELS BRING IFR CEILINGS INTO KLYH AND KDAN EARLY THIS MORNING.
EXPECT ANY STRATUS THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL LIFT TO VFR SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

IMPULSES EXIT BY MONDAY LEAVING THE REGION IN BETWEEN THIS
EXITING SYSTEM AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR MORE IN THE WAY OF WIDESPREAD VFR ON MONDAY AFTER EARLY FOG
FADES WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON
INCLUDING SPOTTY MVFR.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS IT
APPROACHES FROM THE NW TUESDAY...THEN PERHAPS BETTER COVERAGE OF
SHRA/TSRA WEDNESDAY WITH THE FRONT PASSING...AND ACROSS THE SOUTH
THURSDAY WHERE THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL. HOWEVER TIMING AND
SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF THE BOUNDARY QUITE LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS
POINT. THUS APPEARS MAINLY VFR FOR NOW TUE-THU OUTSIDE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION AND TYPICAL EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE
VALLEYS AND WHERE EARLIER HEAVY RAIN OCCURRED.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...WILL
BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A PART HAS BEEN BACK-ORDERED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...AMS
EQUIPMENT...AMS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 310805
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
405 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL STAY BETWEEN A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A COMPLEX LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT FINALLY
ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...

ELONGATED BAROCLINIC ZONE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER JET AND AXIS OF
VORTICITY THAT EXTENDS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO NEW
ENGLAND. UPPER RIDGE REMAINS PARKED OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.
BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE SHOWN ON WATER VAPOR AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGES WILL MAKE ONLY SLOW PROGRESS EAST INTO THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA BY MONDAY MORNING.

MODELS BRING CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER KENTUCKY AND
TENNESSEE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. NOT SURE
HOW FAR EAST THIS PRECIPITATION WILL GET. 06Z HRRR HAD REASONABLE
TIMING MOVING THE EASTERN EDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 8AM
SO WILL BE FOLLOWING THAT ALONG WITH RADAR TRENDS.

LARGER BAND OF SHOWERS WILL PIVOT ENOUGH TO REACH SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA TONIGHT...SIMILAR TO ORIENTATION OF WPC QPF FORECAST AND
THE 00Z GFS...SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE 00Z NAM.

4KM NAM AND HRRR DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE THIS
AFTERNOON...CLOSE TO THE EDGE OF THE THICKER CLOUD COVER. EXPECT
THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING AND INSTABILITY TODAY. STAYED CLOSER TO
BIAS CORRECTED MAV GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. HUMID AIR MASS
AND VERY MILD DEW POINTS WILL RESULT IN LITTLE COOLING TONIGHT. USED
WARMER MET GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...

PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL PRODUCE TROUGHING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST BY MONDAY MORNING. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. THESE UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL SHAPE THE TIMING
OF CONVECTION.

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY MONDAY MORNING...ENHANCING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS IN
THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE SUBTROPICAL BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE. A VERY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE LABOR
DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 90S IN THE PIEDMONT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SOLAR HEATING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS. RAINFALL WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AS THE SUN SETS AND SHOULD SEE
DRY...ALBEIT WARM AND MUGGY...CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 60S IN
THE WEST TO THE AROUND 70 IN THE EAST.

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES TUESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES. BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...WHERE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE LOCATED.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
LOWER 90S IN THE PIEDMONT.

MODEL TREND HAVE BEEN SLOWING THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND EXPECT THE
COLD FRONT WILL STALL FURTHER NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. LOWS WILL FALL
INTO THE MID 60S TO THE LOW 70S TUESDAY NIGHT.

KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY ALONG THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WHILE...HIGH PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES SHOULD KEEP THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA DRY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
WILL BE FROM THE LOWER 80S IN THE WEST TO AROUND 90 DEGREES IN THE
EAST. SLOWLY DRY THINGS OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
TO NEAR 70 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...RESULTING
IN BOTH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND WEAKER WINDS ALOFT. THIS WILL MAKE
FOR MORE STABLE CONDITIONS THAT WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DISORGANIZED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY RAINFALL WHICH
DEVELOPS WILL BE DRIVEN MAINLY BY DAYTIME HEATING...WHICH WILL ALLOW
THIS ACTIVITY TO FIZZLE AFTER SUNSET.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON THURSDAY...
RESULTING IN A WEAK WEDGING PATTERN WITH EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE DRIEST DAY OF THE PERIOD.

WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SINKS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. STRONGER FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC
WILL RESULT IN INCREASED MOISTURE...AND WILL EXPECT SPOTTY SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 125 AM EDT SUNDAY...

SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED AN EXPANSIVE BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AXIS OF VORTICITY ALONG
THIS SAME CORRIDOR WILL GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
AND TONIGHT. ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TENNESSEE
AND OHIO VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST IN TO
WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA TODAY. LOWER CONFIDENCE AS TO HOW FAR
EAST THIS PRECIPITATION WILL GET BY 00Z/8PM. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE KBCB AND KROA TAFS. ALSO KEPT KLYH AND
KDAN DRY. HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT KLWB AND KBLF WILL HAVE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

MODELS BRING IFR CEILINGS INTO KLYH AND KDAN EARLY THIS MORNING.
EXPECT ANY STRATUS THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL LIFT TO VFR SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

IMPULSES EXIT BY MONDAY LEAVING THE REGION IN BETWEEN THIS
EXITING SYSTEM AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR MORE IN THE WAY OF WIDESPREAD VFR ON MONDAY AFTER EARLY FOG
FADES WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON
INCLUDING SPOTTY MVFR.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS IT
APPROACHES FROM THE NW TUESDAY...THEN PERHAPS BETTER COVERAGE OF
SHRA/TSRA WEDNESDAY WITH THE FRONT PASSING...AND ACROSS THE SOUTH
THURSDAY WHERE THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL. HOWEVER TIMING AND
SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF THE BOUNDARY QUITE LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS
POINT. THUS APPEARS MAINLY VFR FOR NOW TUE-THU OUTSIDE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION AND TYPICAL EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE
VALLEYS AND WHERE EARLIER HEAVY RAIN OCCURRED.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...WILL
BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A PART HAS BEEN BACK-ORDERED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...AMS
EQUIPMENT...AMS



000
FXUS61 KLWX 310800
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN FOR THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS W/ EMBEDDED HEAVY RAIN LINKS UP FROM THE
FL GULF COAST TO LAKE ERIE...JUST TO OUR WEST. THE SYNOPTIC
FEATURES CREATING THIS LARGER ARRANGEMENT OF ACTIVITY IS A COMPLEX
COMBINATION OF WEAK KINKS IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THE PARENT
FEATURE IS AN OPEN WAVE KICKER THAT IS DRIFTING ACROSS THE NRN
GREAT LAKES REGION...PULLING THE MOISTURE AXIS UP AND OVER A
COMPACT BUT STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CAROLINA COAST. THE RIDGE
WILL BE EVENTUALLY SUPPLYING OUR AREA - AND MUCH OF THE DEEP
SOUTH...W/ PROLONGED PERIOD OF ABNORMALLY WARM/HUMID TEMPS TO
START OFF THE MONTH OF SEPT.

PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACROSS THE REGION AS DEWPOINTS LEVEL
OFF AROUND THEIR HIGHEST POINTS IN THE L70S...W/ TEMPS AT OR JUST
ABOVE THESE VALUES. THIS IS CREATING A HUMID ENVIRONMENT EVEN IN
THE OVERNIGHT HRS...W/ THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER INSULATING THIS
HIGH-HUMIDITY LAYER. THIS IS THE TYPE OF FEEL TO THE AIR WE WILL
HAVE FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...ESPEC THE FIRST HALF. TEMPS
WILL SLOWLY/STEADILY CLIMB BACK INTO THE 80S HEADING INTO THE MID
MRNG HRS TODAY. LIKE YESTERDAY...THE HIGH AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER
WILL LIKELY TEMPER THE POTENTIAL HIGHS - ESPEC ACROSS THE WRN/NRN
HALVES OF THE CWA. ALONG AND SE OF I-95...THE MAX EXPECTED HIGHS
CLOSER TO 90 DEG WILL PROBABLY BE MET W/ LONGER PERIODS OF
SUNSHINE THIS AFTN.

MUCH OF THE INCOMING SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM THE WEST WILL DISSIPATE
AS IT APPROACHES THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CNTRL APLCNS BY DAWN.
INTO THE POST-DAWN HRS...ONLY A FEW SHOWERS WILL SKIRT THE NWRN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA. TOWARD THE EARLY AFTN HRS...WEAK LEE
TROUGHING COULD HELP DEVELOP POCKETS OF SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY ALONG
AND E OF THE BLUE RIDGE/APLCNS BUT VERY LOCALIZED. MORE COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY IS EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE AFTN HRS.

REORGANIZATION OF THE BEST CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
TOWARD THE LATE AFTN/EVE OVER THE DC/BALT I-95 CORRIDOR AND NE...
EITHER W/ DIFF HEATING BOUNDARIES AND/OR A LOCALIZED LEE TROUGH
AXIS SLIDING THRU THE NRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL
BE PLENTY HIGH TO STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN COMBINATION W/
TEMPS IN THE M-U80S. MLCAPE WILL HOVER AROUND 1000J/KG...W/
LOCALLY HIGHER AND SOME BULK SHEAR IN THE 20-30KT RANGE NEAR THIS
REGION. LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE W/ THE STRONGEST
ACTIVITY AND POSSIBLY ROTATION EMBEDDED W/IN A LINEAR COMPLEX.
PWATS HOVERING IN THE 2-2.5" RANGE THIS AFTN/EVE WILL ALSO GIVE
LOCALIZED AREAS THE HEIGHTENED POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF TORRENTIAL
RAINS BUT POSSIBLY ENOUGH FOR FLOODING UNDER TRAINING CELLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER THE EVE CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED OFF AND MOVED EAST...
ANOTHER REGIONAL BATCH OF LIGHT/MOD RANGE IS TAGGED BY NEAR TERM
GUIDANCE AS MOVING ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE AS WELL - KEEPING
PRECIP CHANCES ALIVE INTO EARLY MON. AS THE BACK END OF THIS
FEATURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH...PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE
LOW CHANCE RANGE THRU MON AFTN/EVE ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA
BUT MAINLY OF A LIGHT/SCTD NATURE...OUTSIDE OF A FEW TSTMS. THE
RELATIVE LACK OF ACTIVITY AND CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST-TO-EAST
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE U80S AND SOME L90S FOR THE
AREA ON MON AFTN...W/ DEWPOINTS STANDING PAT IN THE U60S/L70S -
ANOTHER MUGGY DAY FOR THE AREA.

WEAK RIDGING CROSSES THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...MAKING FOR A REPRIEVE IN THUNDERSTORMS FOR 12-18 HRS. WITH
THE BERMUDA HIGH IN PLACE...EXPECT TUESDAY TO HAVE THE HIGHEST
TEMPERATURE DAY SINCE JULY. MAX TEMPS LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE TUESDAY AND CROSSES THAT NIGHT.
WITH PLENTY OF ENERGY FROM THE HOT DAY...EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER...PARTICULAR FOR WRN ZONES THAT ARE PROGGED TO GET
THE EVENING ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND WITH CONTINENTAL AIR (NOT CANADIAN)
SO TEMPERATURE REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT MAX TEMPS AROUND 90F
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. RETURN FLOW AND ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS
LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE HERE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND ARE
ALREADY HELPING TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS...ESPEC NEAR THE MD
CHES BAY. OTHER POCKETS OF HIGH-END MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS ARE
DOTTING THE MAP ACROSS INLAND AREAS AS WELL...MAINLY AFFECTING THE
REGION THRU MID MRNG. SCTD SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BECOME MORE POSSIBLE
AND WIDESPREAD LATER THIS AFTN/EVE BUT LOCALIZED. SLY WINDS WILL
PERSIST INTO MON...ALONG W/ A FEW HIT/MISS SHOWERS AS WELL THRU
MON EVE.


BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE/VFR TUESDAY ON A HOT DAY (MAX TEMPS IN THE MID
90S). SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE/VFR OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL
MORNING FOG MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY FLOW ACRS THE MARINE AREA THRU THE WKND. MARINE OBS IN THE
LOW-MID TEEN GUSTS. IT/LL BE A SIMLR SITUATION SUNDAY...THO DONT
THINK THE MIXING WL BE QUITE AS GOOD. IN ADDITION...POTL TSRA WUD
PROVIDE STRONGER WIND GUSTS.

SUB SCA SWLY FLOW MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT
BRINGS WLY FLOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DEPARTURES AT ANNAPOLIS ARE AROUND 1 FEET...AND WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN SLY...SO ANTICIPATE ADDTL INCREASES THROUGH THE WKND. THE
NEXT HIGH TIDE SUN MRNG WL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR POSSIBLE MINOR
FLOODING. NONETHELESS...THIS WL BE AN ISSUE THROUGH THE WKND WITH
NEW MOON AND SOUTHERLIES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BWI AIRPORT HAS NOT HIT 90F THIS MONTH. UPPER 80S ARE FORECAST
TODAY. THIS WOULD BE THE FIRST AUGUST SINCE 1984 THAT BALTIMORE DID
NOT HIT 90F. THE ONLY OTHER SUCH YEAR IN THE BALTIMORE TEMPERATURE
RECORD IS 1904.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...GMS
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...BAJ
AVIATION...GMS/BAJ
MARINE...GMS/BAJ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...GMS/LEE
CLIMATE...BAJ








000
FXUS61 KLWX 310800
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN FOR THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS W/ EMBEDDED HEAVY RAIN LINKS UP FROM THE
FL GULF COAST TO LAKE ERIE...JUST TO OUR WEST. THE SYNOPTIC
FEATURES CREATING THIS LARGER ARRANGEMENT OF ACTIVITY IS A COMPLEX
COMBINATION OF WEAK KINKS IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THE PARENT
FEATURE IS AN OPEN WAVE KICKER THAT IS DRIFTING ACROSS THE NRN
GREAT LAKES REGION...PULLING THE MOISTURE AXIS UP AND OVER A
COMPACT BUT STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CAROLINA COAST. THE RIDGE
WILL BE EVENTUALLY SUPPLYING OUR AREA - AND MUCH OF THE DEEP
SOUTH...W/ PROLONGED PERIOD OF ABNORMALLY WARM/HUMID TEMPS TO
START OFF THE MONTH OF SEPT.

PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACROSS THE REGION AS DEWPOINTS LEVEL
OFF AROUND THEIR HIGHEST POINTS IN THE L70S...W/ TEMPS AT OR JUST
ABOVE THESE VALUES. THIS IS CREATING A HUMID ENVIRONMENT EVEN IN
THE OVERNIGHT HRS...W/ THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER INSULATING THIS
HIGH-HUMIDITY LAYER. THIS IS THE TYPE OF FEEL TO THE AIR WE WILL
HAVE FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...ESPEC THE FIRST HALF. TEMPS
WILL SLOWLY/STEADILY CLIMB BACK INTO THE 80S HEADING INTO THE MID
MRNG HRS TODAY. LIKE YESTERDAY...THE HIGH AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER
WILL LIKELY TEMPER THE POTENTIAL HIGHS - ESPEC ACROSS THE WRN/NRN
HALVES OF THE CWA. ALONG AND SE OF I-95...THE MAX EXPECTED HIGHS
CLOSER TO 90 DEG WILL PROBABLY BE MET W/ LONGER PERIODS OF
SUNSHINE THIS AFTN.

MUCH OF THE INCOMING SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM THE WEST WILL DISSIPATE
AS IT APPROACHES THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CNTRL APLCNS BY DAWN.
INTO THE POST-DAWN HRS...ONLY A FEW SHOWERS WILL SKIRT THE NWRN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA. TOWARD THE EARLY AFTN HRS...WEAK LEE
TROUGHING COULD HELP DEVELOP POCKETS OF SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY ALONG
AND E OF THE BLUE RIDGE/APLCNS BUT VERY LOCALIZED. MORE COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY IS EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE AFTN HRS.

REORGANIZATION OF THE BEST CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
TOWARD THE LATE AFTN/EVE OVER THE DC/BALT I-95 CORRIDOR AND NE...
EITHER W/ DIFF HEATING BOUNDARIES AND/OR A LOCALIZED LEE TROUGH
AXIS SLIDING THRU THE NRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL
BE PLENTY HIGH TO STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN COMBINATION W/
TEMPS IN THE M-U80S. MLCAPE WILL HOVER AROUND 1000J/KG...W/
LOCALLY HIGHER AND SOME BULK SHEAR IN THE 20-30KT RANGE NEAR THIS
REGION. LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE W/ THE STRONGEST
ACTIVITY AND POSSIBLY ROTATION EMBEDDED W/IN A LINEAR COMPLEX.
PWATS HOVERING IN THE 2-2.5" RANGE THIS AFTN/EVE WILL ALSO GIVE
LOCALIZED AREAS THE HEIGHTENED POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF TORRENTIAL
RAINS BUT POSSIBLY ENOUGH FOR FLOODING UNDER TRAINING CELLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER THE EVE CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED OFF AND MOVED EAST...
ANOTHER REGIONAL BATCH OF LIGHT/MOD RANGE IS TAGGED BY NEAR TERM
GUIDANCE AS MOVING ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE AS WELL - KEEPING
PRECIP CHANCES ALIVE INTO EARLY MON. AS THE BACK END OF THIS
FEATURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH...PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE
LOW CHANCE RANGE THRU MON AFTN/EVE ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA
BUT MAINLY OF A LIGHT/SCTD NATURE...OUTSIDE OF A FEW TSTMS. THE
RELATIVE LACK OF ACTIVITY AND CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST-TO-EAST
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE U80S AND SOME L90S FOR THE
AREA ON MON AFTN...W/ DEWPOINTS STANDING PAT IN THE U60S/L70S -
ANOTHER MUGGY DAY FOR THE AREA.

WEAK RIDGING CROSSES THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...MAKING FOR A REPRIEVE IN THUNDERSTORMS FOR 12-18 HRS. WITH
THE BERMUDA HIGH IN PLACE...EXPECT TUESDAY TO HAVE THE HIGHEST
TEMPERATURE DAY SINCE JULY. MAX TEMPS LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE TUESDAY AND CROSSES THAT NIGHT.
WITH PLENTY OF ENERGY FROM THE HOT DAY...EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER...PARTICULAR FOR WRN ZONES THAT ARE PROGGED TO GET
THE EVENING ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND WITH CONTINENTAL AIR (NOT CANADIAN)
SO TEMPERATURE REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT MAX TEMPS AROUND 90F
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. RETURN FLOW AND ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS
LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE HERE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND ARE
ALREADY HELPING TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS...ESPEC NEAR THE MD
CHES BAY. OTHER POCKETS OF HIGH-END MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS ARE
DOTTING THE MAP ACROSS INLAND AREAS AS WELL...MAINLY AFFECTING THE
REGION THRU MID MRNG. SCTD SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BECOME MORE POSSIBLE
AND WIDESPREAD LATER THIS AFTN/EVE BUT LOCALIZED. SLY WINDS WILL
PERSIST INTO MON...ALONG W/ A FEW HIT/MISS SHOWERS AS WELL THRU
MON EVE.


BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE/VFR TUESDAY ON A HOT DAY (MAX TEMPS IN THE MID
90S). SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE/VFR OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL
MORNING FOG MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY FLOW ACRS THE MARINE AREA THRU THE WKND. MARINE OBS IN THE
LOW-MID TEEN GUSTS. IT/LL BE A SIMLR SITUATION SUNDAY...THO DONT
THINK THE MIXING WL BE QUITE AS GOOD. IN ADDITION...POTL TSRA WUD
PROVIDE STRONGER WIND GUSTS.

SUB SCA SWLY FLOW MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT
BRINGS WLY FLOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DEPARTURES AT ANNAPOLIS ARE AROUND 1 FEET...AND WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN SLY...SO ANTICIPATE ADDTL INCREASES THROUGH THE WKND. THE
NEXT HIGH TIDE SUN MRNG WL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR POSSIBLE MINOR
FLOODING. NONETHELESS...THIS WL BE AN ISSUE THROUGH THE WKND WITH
NEW MOON AND SOUTHERLIES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BWI AIRPORT HAS NOT HIT 90F THIS MONTH. UPPER 80S ARE FORECAST
TODAY. THIS WOULD BE THE FIRST AUGUST SINCE 1984 THAT BALTIMORE DID
NOT HIT 90F. THE ONLY OTHER SUCH YEAR IN THE BALTIMORE TEMPERATURE
RECORD IS 1904.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...GMS
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...BAJ
AVIATION...GMS/BAJ
MARINE...GMS/BAJ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...GMS/LEE
CLIMATE...BAJ







000
FXUS61 KLWX 310531 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
131 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF CAPE COD WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND BECOME A
BERMUDA HIGH THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...CANCELLED SCA FOR THE LOWER MAIN STEM ZONES OF THE MD
BAY.

PREV DISC...
SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT AS MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS FROM THE CONVECTION OVER THE TN VALLEY CONTINUES TO STREAM
TO THE NORTHEAST. WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS...WILL SEE AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOPING...PREDOMINANTLY IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS WHERE LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL NOT BE ABLE TO MIX THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AT
01Z...ALREADY SEEING LOW SFC TEMP/DWPT SPREADS AT STAFFORD AND
WARRENTON AND MIST FORMING. BOTH MET AND MAV GUIDANCE SHOWS VSBYS
LOWERING OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY WILL START OUT WITH LINGERING PATCHY FOG THROUGH MID
MORNING...THEN REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE 18Z GFS HAS A STREAK OF
PRECIP WATER GREAT THAN 2.25" ACROSS OUR CWA AS A POTENT H5 VORT
TRACKS FROM SW. THIS WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSTMS DEVELOPING
BY MID AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SOME OF THESE
STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT
THERE IS DECENT 20-30 KTS IN THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER WHICH WILL
KEEP THE STORMS PROGRESSIVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CWFA WL BE W/IN SWLY FLOW FOR THE FRIST PARTS OF THE WK. HWVR THE
FLOW WL BECOME A BIT MORE WLY MON...AND SPCLY TUE. THE PLUME OF
MSTR EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMGRY WL BE RUNNING ATOP THE RDG.

LTST GDNC SUGGESTING THAT THE SETUP WONT BE QUITE AS IDEAL AS
PRVS CYCLES. THATS NOT TO SAY THERE WONT BE A MOIST/UNSTBL AMS.
BUT THTE RDG/ADVTN AS WELL AS PVA DURING THE AFTN WL BE BETTER IN
THE MTNS AND PTS WEST. STILL WL HV A CORRIDOR OF PWAT AOA 2
INCHES...BUT THERE/S NOT AS MUCH TO ORGANIZE/FORCE THE PCPN. AND
IN THE SERN CWFA...RDGG WL ACTUALLY SURPRESS IT. HV THEREFORE
BACKED OFF ON POPS SUN...STILL FOCUSING ON THE AFTN-EVE HRS. LKLY
POPS WONT APPEAR TIL EVNG...WHEN LIFT ARRIVES. NOCTURNAL STABILITY
WL ALLOW PVA TO SNEAK THRU OVNGT.

AM FCSTG A GOOD DEAL OF CLDCVR SUN...WHICH SHUD ONCE AGN IMPEDE
STRONG WARMING. HV SHADED DOWN MAXT A DEGF OR TWO.

WHILE THERE WL BE A SHARP LEE TROF MON...ALL OTHER FEATURES APPEAR
TO BE EITHER WEAK OR SUBTLE. WLY FLOW WL PROVIDE A LTL BIT OF
DRYING...WHICH IS EVIDENT IN PROGGED PWAT VALUES. THE IMPACT IS
EVIDENT IN POP VALUES...WHICH ARE LWR THAN SUN. THAT SEEMS QUITE
RESONABLE. AM GNLY IN THE 30-40 PCT RANGE...AND AM KEEPING A DRY
FCST IN CENTRL VA. WHATEVER TSRA THAT DO DVLP SHUD MV TO THE ERN
SHORE BY NIGHTFALL...AND HV A DRY FCST FOR MON NGT-- WHICH LARGELY
WL CONT INTO TUE DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.

THINK THAT THE BEST CHC AT A 90 DEG DAY WL COME ON TUE...AS WLY
FLOW WL KEEP POPS LOW AND PROVIDE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING. HV LWRD
MON MAXT BY A CPL...AND RAISED TUE MAXT ALSO BY A CPL. MIN-T FCSTS
ON TRACK...IN STEP W/ PROGGED DEWPTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
500MB SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC
AND DRAG A WEAK TROUGH THROUGH THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. 500MB HIGH WILL BUILD OVER MID ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO
ENTER NORTHWEST PA BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

BAND OF MOISTURE...PVA...AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT
A SLIGHT CHANCE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. MUCH DRIER AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH
SURFACE HIGH WILL CROSS THE CWA LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
INCREASING MOISTURE DUE TO THE RETURN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH AND PVA OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASED CHANCE OF MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SLY FLOW WL PROVIDE INCREASING LOW LVL HUMIDITY. THEREFORE...
OVERNIGHT FOG SHUD BE AN ISSUE. FLLWG CLIMO BY KEEPING DCA AT VFR.
OTRW...HV MVRG VSBYS ACRS THE BOARD PRE-DAWN. IFR A PSBLTY...BUT
THINK THERE WL BE TOO MUCH HIER LVL CLDCVR FOR THICKER FOG TO DVLP.

ONCE MRNG RESTRICTIONS CLR...ATM WL BE UNSTBL FOR SCT TSRA TO
DVLP. CUD HV LCL IFR IN HVR RAINERS...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN A SPOT
FCST PRECLUDE A TAF INCLUSION.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD SEE MVFR FOG RETURN AFTER
RAINFALL...THEN MON TARGETED IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH SCT TSRA.
CVRG SHUD BE LESS THAN SUN. TUE-THU...PRIMARILY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY FLOW ACRS THE MARINE AREA THRU THE WKND. MARINE OBS IN THE
LOW-MID TEEN GUSTS. IT/LL BE A SIMLR SITUATION SUNDAY...THO DONT
THINK THE MIXING WL BE QUITE AS GOOD. IN ADDITION...POTL TSRA WUD
PROVIDE STRONGER WIND GUSTS.

OFFSHORE HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO STEER WARM/HUMID AIR UP ACROSS
THE ERN SEABOARD. SETUP WUD SUPPORT PDS OF SLY CHANNELING...BUT
GDNC NOT PICKING UP ON ANY JUST YET. WK CDFNT LT TUE/ELY WED...
MARKED BY A SLGT SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION FM SW TO NW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DEPARTURES AT ANNAPOLIS ARE ABOUT 0.9 FEET...AND WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN SLY...SO ANTICIPATE ADDTL INCREASES THROUGH THE WKND. THE
NEXT HIGH TIDE SUN MRNG WL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR POSSIBLE MINOR
FLOODING. NONETHELESS...THIS WL BE AN ISSUE THROUGH THE WKND WITH
NEW MOON AND SOUTHERLIES.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...LEE/HTS/CEM









000
FXUS61 KLWX 310531 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
131 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF CAPE COD WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND BECOME A
BERMUDA HIGH THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...CANCELLED SCA FOR THE LOWER MAIN STEM ZONES OF THE MD
BAY.

PREV DISC...
SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT AS MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS FROM THE CONVECTION OVER THE TN VALLEY CONTINUES TO STREAM
TO THE NORTHEAST. WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS...WILL SEE AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOPING...PREDOMINANTLY IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS WHERE LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL NOT BE ABLE TO MIX THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AT
01Z...ALREADY SEEING LOW SFC TEMP/DWPT SPREADS AT STAFFORD AND
WARRENTON AND MIST FORMING. BOTH MET AND MAV GUIDANCE SHOWS VSBYS
LOWERING OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY WILL START OUT WITH LINGERING PATCHY FOG THROUGH MID
MORNING...THEN REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE 18Z GFS HAS A STREAK OF
PRECIP WATER GREAT THAN 2.25" ACROSS OUR CWA AS A POTENT H5 VORT
TRACKS FROM SW. THIS WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSTMS DEVELOPING
BY MID AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SOME OF THESE
STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT
THERE IS DECENT 20-30 KTS IN THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER WHICH WILL
KEEP THE STORMS PROGRESSIVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CWFA WL BE W/IN SWLY FLOW FOR THE FRIST PARTS OF THE WK. HWVR THE
FLOW WL BECOME A BIT MORE WLY MON...AND SPCLY TUE. THE PLUME OF
MSTR EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMGRY WL BE RUNNING ATOP THE RDG.

LTST GDNC SUGGESTING THAT THE SETUP WONT BE QUITE AS IDEAL AS
PRVS CYCLES. THATS NOT TO SAY THERE WONT BE A MOIST/UNSTBL AMS.
BUT THTE RDG/ADVTN AS WELL AS PVA DURING THE AFTN WL BE BETTER IN
THE MTNS AND PTS WEST. STILL WL HV A CORRIDOR OF PWAT AOA 2
INCHES...BUT THERE/S NOT AS MUCH TO ORGANIZE/FORCE THE PCPN. AND
IN THE SERN CWFA...RDGG WL ACTUALLY SURPRESS IT. HV THEREFORE
BACKED OFF ON POPS SUN...STILL FOCUSING ON THE AFTN-EVE HRS. LKLY
POPS WONT APPEAR TIL EVNG...WHEN LIFT ARRIVES. NOCTURNAL STABILITY
WL ALLOW PVA TO SNEAK THRU OVNGT.

AM FCSTG A GOOD DEAL OF CLDCVR SUN...WHICH SHUD ONCE AGN IMPEDE
STRONG WARMING. HV SHADED DOWN MAXT A DEGF OR TWO.

WHILE THERE WL BE A SHARP LEE TROF MON...ALL OTHER FEATURES APPEAR
TO BE EITHER WEAK OR SUBTLE. WLY FLOW WL PROVIDE A LTL BIT OF
DRYING...WHICH IS EVIDENT IN PROGGED PWAT VALUES. THE IMPACT IS
EVIDENT IN POP VALUES...WHICH ARE LWR THAN SUN. THAT SEEMS QUITE
RESONABLE. AM GNLY IN THE 30-40 PCT RANGE...AND AM KEEPING A DRY
FCST IN CENTRL VA. WHATEVER TSRA THAT DO DVLP SHUD MV TO THE ERN
SHORE BY NIGHTFALL...AND HV A DRY FCST FOR MON NGT-- WHICH LARGELY
WL CONT INTO TUE DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.

THINK THAT THE BEST CHC AT A 90 DEG DAY WL COME ON TUE...AS WLY
FLOW WL KEEP POPS LOW AND PROVIDE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING. HV LWRD
MON MAXT BY A CPL...AND RAISED TUE MAXT ALSO BY A CPL. MIN-T FCSTS
ON TRACK...IN STEP W/ PROGGED DEWPTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
500MB SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC
AND DRAG A WEAK TROUGH THROUGH THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. 500MB HIGH WILL BUILD OVER MID ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO
ENTER NORTHWEST PA BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

BAND OF MOISTURE...PVA...AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT
A SLIGHT CHANCE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. MUCH DRIER AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH
SURFACE HIGH WILL CROSS THE CWA LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
INCREASING MOISTURE DUE TO THE RETURN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH AND PVA OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASED CHANCE OF MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SLY FLOW WL PROVIDE INCREASING LOW LVL HUMIDITY. THEREFORE...
OVERNIGHT FOG SHUD BE AN ISSUE. FLLWG CLIMO BY KEEPING DCA AT VFR.
OTRW...HV MVRG VSBYS ACRS THE BOARD PRE-DAWN. IFR A PSBLTY...BUT
THINK THERE WL BE TOO MUCH HIER LVL CLDCVR FOR THICKER FOG TO DVLP.

ONCE MRNG RESTRICTIONS CLR...ATM WL BE UNSTBL FOR SCT TSRA TO
DVLP. CUD HV LCL IFR IN HVR RAINERS...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN A SPOT
FCST PRECLUDE A TAF INCLUSION.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD SEE MVFR FOG RETURN AFTER
RAINFALL...THEN MON TARGETED IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH SCT TSRA.
CVRG SHUD BE LESS THAN SUN. TUE-THU...PRIMARILY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY FLOW ACRS THE MARINE AREA THRU THE WKND. MARINE OBS IN THE
LOW-MID TEEN GUSTS. IT/LL BE A SIMLR SITUATION SUNDAY...THO DONT
THINK THE MIXING WL BE QUITE AS GOOD. IN ADDITION...POTL TSRA WUD
PROVIDE STRONGER WIND GUSTS.

OFFSHORE HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO STEER WARM/HUMID AIR UP ACROSS
THE ERN SEABOARD. SETUP WUD SUPPORT PDS OF SLY CHANNELING...BUT
GDNC NOT PICKING UP ON ANY JUST YET. WK CDFNT LT TUE/ELY WED...
MARKED BY A SLGT SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION FM SW TO NW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DEPARTURES AT ANNAPOLIS ARE ABOUT 0.9 FEET...AND WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN SLY...SO ANTICIPATE ADDTL INCREASES THROUGH THE WKND. THE
NEXT HIGH TIDE SUN MRNG WL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR POSSIBLE MINOR
FLOODING. NONETHELESS...THIS WL BE AN ISSUE THROUGH THE WKND WITH
NEW MOON AND SOUTHERLIES.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...LEE/HTS/CEM








000
FXUS61 KRNK 310531
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
131 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES FROM MISSISSIPPI TO THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN A TYPICAL SUMMER AIRMASS
INTO TUESDAY. A FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 850 PM EDT SATURDAY...

WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION NOW ALL BUT GONE...PLAN TO RUN A FEW
HOURS WITHOUT POP INTO THE OVERNIGHT GIVEN LOSS OF HEATING AND
BEST LIFT/CONVERGENCE BACK TO THE SW OVER TN/AL. LATEST EVENING
SOUNDINGS SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY BUT CAPPED
OFF ALOFT VIA THE LINGERING INVERSION/DRY AIR. APPEARS BEST
MOISTURE TRAJECTORY WILL CONTINUE JUST WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT BEFORE A TRAILING TROUGH AXIS ATTEMPTS TO SHIFT EAST
LATE UNDER THE PASSING WAVE ALOFT AS SEEN BY A COUPLE SHORT TERM
SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER EVEN THIS LOOKS TO ARRIVE LATE WHEN THINGS ARE
MORE STABLE...SO ALSO PUSHED POPS BACK WEST A BIT...WITH MAINLY
CHANCE COVERAGE SE WEST VA DOWN ALONG THE I-77 CORRIDOR BY
DAWN...AND ONLY SLIGHT POPS OUT TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE. OTRW A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS EARLY ON...THEN MAINLY CLOUDY
WESTERN HALF DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MORE PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE EAST WHERE SHOULD STAY CLEAR LONGER. NUDGED UP LOW TEMPS
A FEW DEGREES IN SPOTS PER MOISTURE UNDER THE CLOUD CANOPY WHICH
SUPPORTS SOME SPOTS STAYING ABOVE 70 EAST AND MOSTLY 60S WEST.

SUNDAY...MODELS IN SIMILAR AGREEMENT ON TRACK OF UPPER SHORTWAVE BUT
DIFFER ON EASTWARD EXTENT AND AMOUNT OF PRECIP. THE 12Z NAM OVERALL
LOOKED TO BULLSEYEISH WITH FINGERS OF HIGHER QPF ACROSS THE NC MTNS
INTO SW VA...SO LEANED THE FORECAST TOWARD THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS...WHICH
FOR THE MOST PART TAKE THE HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE NW NC/SW VA/SRN WV
AREA INTO THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY TOMORROW...WITH LESS THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS EAST OF THE DAN/LYH CORRIDOR. TEMPS WILL BE
TEMPERED BY THE CLOUD COVER SO LOOKING AT HUMID CONDITIONS WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S MOUNTAINS...TO MID TO
UPPER 80S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT SATURDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH GREATEST RAIN CHANCES FOUND
WEST OF INTERSTATE 81...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHIFTS ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WITH A VERY MOIST
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE...MAY SEE A FEW AREAS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
BUT BELIEVE THE FLOODING THREAT WILL BE LOW DUE TO A WEEK OF DRY
CONDITIONS.

MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS REDEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WE APPROACH
MAXIMUM HEATING...BUT BELIEVE THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE
DISORGANIZED DUE TO DRIER CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM
THE SOUTH...AS WELL AS A LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. RAINFALL WILL
DIMINISH QUICKLY AS THE SUN SETS AND SHOULD SEE DRY...ALBEIT WARM
AND MUGGY...CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT SOUTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES. BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...WHERE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE LOCATED.
BELIEVE MODELS ARE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING THE FRONT INTO NORTH
CAROLINA PER THE 30/12Z RUNS...AND EXPECT THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL
FURTHER NORTH DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES...PERHAPS SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE INTERSTATE 64 AND
HIGHWAY 460 CORRIDORS DURING TUESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE EARLY HALF OF
THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...TO THE LOW 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE. LOWS WILL FALL INTO
THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...RESULTING
IN BOTH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND WEAKER WINDS ALOFT. THIS WILL MAKE
FOR MORE STABLE CONDITIONS THAT WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DISORGANIZED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY RAINFALL WHICH
DEVELOPS WILL BE DRIVEN MAINLY BY DAYTIME HEATING...WHICH WILL ALLOW
THIS ACTIVITY TO FIZZLE AFTER SUNSET.

EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TO
DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...
WHEREVER IT IS LOCATED. HIGH PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES SHOULD KEEP THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA DRY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON THURSDAY...
RESULTING IN A WEAK WEDGING PATTERN WITH EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE DRIEST DAY OF THE PERIOD.

WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SINKS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. STRONGER FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC
WILL RESULT IN INCREASED MOISTURE...AND WILL EXPECT SPOTTY SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 125 AM EDT SUNDAY...

SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED AN EXPANSIVE BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AXIS OF VORTICITY ALONG
THIS SAME CORRIDOR WILL GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
AND TONIGHT. ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TENNESSEE
AND OHIO VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST IN TO
WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA TODAY. LOWER CONFIDENCE AS TO HOW FAR
EAST THIS PRECIPITATION WILL GET BY 00Z/8PM. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE KBCB AND KROA TAFS. ALSO KEPT KLYH AND
KDAN DRY. HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT KLWB AND KBLF WILL HAVE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

MODELS BRING IFR CEILINGS INTO KLYH AND KDAN EARLY THIS MORNING.
EXPECT ANY STRATUS THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL LIFT TO VFR SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

IMPULSES EXIT BY MONDAY LEAVING THE REGION IN BETWEEN THIS
EXITING SYSTEM AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR MORE IN THE WAY OF WIDESPREAD VFR ON MONDAY AFTER EARLY FOG
FADES WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON
INCLUDING SPOTTY MVFR.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS IT
APPROACHES FROM THE NW TUESDAY...THEN PERHAPS BETTER COVERAGE OF
SHRA/TSRA WEDNESDAY WITH THE FRONT PASSING...AND ACROSS THE SOUTH
THURSDAY WHERE THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL. HOWEVER TIMING AND
SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF THE BOUNDARY QUITE LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS
POINT. THUS APPEARS MAINLY VFR FOR NOW TUE-THU OUTSIDE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION AND TYPICAL EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE
VALLEYS AND WHERE EARLIER HEAVY RAIN OCCURRED.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...WILL
BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A PART HAS BEEN BACK-ORDERED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...AMS
EQUIPMENT...AMS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 310531
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
131 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES FROM MISSISSIPPI TO THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN A TYPICAL SUMMER AIRMASS
INTO TUESDAY. A FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 850 PM EDT SATURDAY...

WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION NOW ALL BUT GONE...PLAN TO RUN A FEW
HOURS WITHOUT POP INTO THE OVERNIGHT GIVEN LOSS OF HEATING AND
BEST LIFT/CONVERGENCE BACK TO THE SW OVER TN/AL. LATEST EVENING
SOUNDINGS SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY BUT CAPPED
OFF ALOFT VIA THE LINGERING INVERSION/DRY AIR. APPEARS BEST
MOISTURE TRAJECTORY WILL CONTINUE JUST WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT BEFORE A TRAILING TROUGH AXIS ATTEMPTS TO SHIFT EAST
LATE UNDER THE PASSING WAVE ALOFT AS SEEN BY A COUPLE SHORT TERM
SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER EVEN THIS LOOKS TO ARRIVE LATE WHEN THINGS ARE
MORE STABLE...SO ALSO PUSHED POPS BACK WEST A BIT...WITH MAINLY
CHANCE COVERAGE SE WEST VA DOWN ALONG THE I-77 CORRIDOR BY
DAWN...AND ONLY SLIGHT POPS OUT TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE. OTRW A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS EARLY ON...THEN MAINLY CLOUDY
WESTERN HALF DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MORE PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE EAST WHERE SHOULD STAY CLEAR LONGER. NUDGED UP LOW TEMPS
A FEW DEGREES IN SPOTS PER MOISTURE UNDER THE CLOUD CANOPY WHICH
SUPPORTS SOME SPOTS STAYING ABOVE 70 EAST AND MOSTLY 60S WEST.

SUNDAY...MODELS IN SIMILAR AGREEMENT ON TRACK OF UPPER SHORTWAVE BUT
DIFFER ON EASTWARD EXTENT AND AMOUNT OF PRECIP. THE 12Z NAM OVERALL
LOOKED TO BULLSEYEISH WITH FINGERS OF HIGHER QPF ACROSS THE NC MTNS
INTO SW VA...SO LEANED THE FORECAST TOWARD THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS...WHICH
FOR THE MOST PART TAKE THE HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE NW NC/SW VA/SRN WV
AREA INTO THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY TOMORROW...WITH LESS THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS EAST OF THE DAN/LYH CORRIDOR. TEMPS WILL BE
TEMPERED BY THE CLOUD COVER SO LOOKING AT HUMID CONDITIONS WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S MOUNTAINS...TO MID TO
UPPER 80S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT SATURDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH GREATEST RAIN CHANCES FOUND
WEST OF INTERSTATE 81...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHIFTS ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WITH A VERY MOIST
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE...MAY SEE A FEW AREAS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
BUT BELIEVE THE FLOODING THREAT WILL BE LOW DUE TO A WEEK OF DRY
CONDITIONS.

MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS REDEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WE APPROACH
MAXIMUM HEATING...BUT BELIEVE THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE
DISORGANIZED DUE TO DRIER CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM
THE SOUTH...AS WELL AS A LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. RAINFALL WILL
DIMINISH QUICKLY AS THE SUN SETS AND SHOULD SEE DRY...ALBEIT WARM
AND MUGGY...CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT SOUTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES. BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...WHERE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE LOCATED.
BELIEVE MODELS ARE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING THE FRONT INTO NORTH
CAROLINA PER THE 30/12Z RUNS...AND EXPECT THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL
FURTHER NORTH DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES...PERHAPS SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE INTERSTATE 64 AND
HIGHWAY 460 CORRIDORS DURING TUESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE EARLY HALF OF
THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...TO THE LOW 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE. LOWS WILL FALL INTO
THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...RESULTING
IN BOTH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND WEAKER WINDS ALOFT. THIS WILL MAKE
FOR MORE STABLE CONDITIONS THAT WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DISORGANIZED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY RAINFALL WHICH
DEVELOPS WILL BE DRIVEN MAINLY BY DAYTIME HEATING...WHICH WILL ALLOW
THIS ACTIVITY TO FIZZLE AFTER SUNSET.

EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TO
DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...
WHEREVER IT IS LOCATED. HIGH PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES SHOULD KEEP THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA DRY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON THURSDAY...
RESULTING IN A WEAK WEDGING PATTERN WITH EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE DRIEST DAY OF THE PERIOD.

WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SINKS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. STRONGER FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC
WILL RESULT IN INCREASED MOISTURE...AND WILL EXPECT SPOTTY SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 125 AM EDT SUNDAY...

SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED AN EXPANSIVE BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AXIS OF VORTICITY ALONG
THIS SAME CORRIDOR WILL GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
AND TONIGHT. ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TENNESSEE
AND OHIO VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST IN TO
WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA TODAY. LOWER CONFIDENCE AS TO HOW FAR
EAST THIS PRECIPITATION WILL GET BY 00Z/8PM. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE KBCB AND KROA TAFS. ALSO KEPT KLYH AND
KDAN DRY. HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT KLWB AND KBLF WILL HAVE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

MODELS BRING IFR CEILINGS INTO KLYH AND KDAN EARLY THIS MORNING.
EXPECT ANY STRATUS THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL LIFT TO VFR SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

IMPULSES EXIT BY MONDAY LEAVING THE REGION IN BETWEEN THIS
EXITING SYSTEM AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR MORE IN THE WAY OF WIDESPREAD VFR ON MONDAY AFTER EARLY FOG
FADES WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON
INCLUDING SPOTTY MVFR.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS IT
APPROACHES FROM THE NW TUESDAY...THEN PERHAPS BETTER COVERAGE OF
SHRA/TSRA WEDNESDAY WITH THE FRONT PASSING...AND ACROSS THE SOUTH
THURSDAY WHERE THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL. HOWEVER TIMING AND
SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF THE BOUNDARY QUITE LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS
POINT. THUS APPEARS MAINLY VFR FOR NOW TUE-THU OUTSIDE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION AND TYPICAL EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE
VALLEYS AND WHERE EARLIER HEAVY RAIN OCCURRED.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...WILL
BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A PART HAS BEEN BACK-ORDERED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...AMS
EQUIPMENT...AMS



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