Home > Products > State Listing > Virginia Data
Latest:
 AFDRNK |  AFDLWX |  AFDAKQ |
  [top]

000
FXUS61 KRNK 290517
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
117 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through the region overnight and bring a
most welcome break of fair weather to the region for midweek.
However, a chance of showers and thunderstorm will return to the
forecast as we get to the latter portion of the work week, and our
weather will become increasingly unsettled with increasing chances
for showers and thunderstorms through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 1125 PM EDT Tuesday...

Showers still lingering along the frontal boundary across
southwest Virginia, where latest meso analysis shows deep moisture
convergence. Favoring a trend toward drier weather shortly after
midnight with patchy fog developing. Otherwise, expect somewhat
lower dewpoints toward dawn at least as far east as the foothills.

Previous valid discussion...

Lows tonight will be right around normal for this time of year
with readings in the mid/upper 50s west of the Blue Ridge and
mid/upper 60s to the east.

After fog/stratus dissipate Wednesday morning we should be in for a
decent day with high temperatures in the mid/upper 80s east to
mid/upper 70s west. However, the cold front that moves through tonight
will be stalling out just to our south and will start pushing back to
the north by late Wednesday. This will start pushing some showers back
toward northwest North Carolina by late in the day but it currently
looks like we will get through the day dry. Will include some very low
POPs in the grids to cover the situation and show the trend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM EDT Tuesday...

Wednesday evening, the departing energy from an upper level
disturbance will allow for the potential for some isolated to
scattered showers and storms across the far southeast portion of the
forecast region. This features is expected to exit the region by
midnight, and with it and remaining shower activity.

High pressure will build into the Upper Ohio Valley with its
influence experience across mainly northern portions of the forecast
area. Concurrently, low pressure will move eastward along the coast
of the Gulf of Mexico. Moisture will start to advect northward along
the east side of this low and enter our region gradually Thursday.
Precipitation chances will increase from south to north with the
best chances across Southside Virginia and neighboring north central
North Carolina by the afternoon.

This pattern will continue into Friday with the focus for
precipitation across primarily the eastern portion of the region. A
small shift eastward in the axis of this precipitation will take
place as high pres an upper level trough moves through the Great
Lakes region. sure begins to nose south into western parts of the
area. By late Friday night, dry weather is expected.

Temperatures during this portion of the forecast will trend slightly
milder each day and be a few degrees within normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Tuesday...

Low pressure will deepen over northern Texas, and a warm front will
start to develop eastward into the Gulf Coast states. This front
will lift north into our region by Sunday and stall overhead through
early next week. This scenario will set the stage for a return to a
wet pattern. The low over texas will track eastward along the front
and provide increasing dynamics for the potential for heavy rain for
the end of the weekend into early next week.

High temperatures during the period will trend cooler while the low
temperatures will trend higher. By Monday of next week, high
temperatures will be slightly below normal and low will be slightly
above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1255 AM EDT Wednesday...

Cold front slowly making its way across the Blue Ridge should
continue to edge east of the region by daybreak. This looks to
bring in slightly lower dewpoints across the mountains through
morning while soupy conditions linger out east. Otherwise looking
at mainly VFR cigs to start with potential for areas of dense fog
in the valleys as well as across the east during the next few
hours. However just how widespread fog will be remains iffy given
residual mid clouds so keeping trend of prevailing MVFR to IFR in
fog/stratus with tempo to LIFR at times outside of KROA.

Wednesday morning will see fog/stratus dissipate with a return to
VFR conditions expected by midday with mainly broken 4-6k cumulus
fields Wednesday afternoon. Also cant totally rule out isolated
convection Wednesday afternoon espcly southern sections but just
to iffy to include for now.

Extended discussion...

Thursday into Sunday, the high will shift to the east and the
region will be within southerly flow again. This pattern will have
the potential of advecting moisture back into the area. Showers
and storms will again be possible yielding areas of sub-VFR
conditions espcly during the afternoon/evening hours. This likely
followed by late night and early morning patchy fog with localized
sub-VFR possible.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS/WP
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...JH/MBS/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 290335
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1135 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through the region tonight and bring a most
welcome break of fair weather to the region for midweek. However, a
chance of showers and thunderstorm will return to the forecast as we
get to the latter portion of the work week, and our weather will become
increasingly unsettled with increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1125 PM EDT Tuesday...

Showers still lingering along the frontal boundary across
southwest Virginia, where latest meso analysis shows deep moisture
convergence. Favoring a trend toward drier weather shortly after
midnight with patchy fog developing. Otherwise, expect somewhat
lower dewpoints toward dawn at least as far east as the foothills.

Previous valid discussion...

Lows tonight will be right around normal for this time of year
with readings in the mid/upper 50s west of the Blue Ridge and
mid/upper 60s to the east.

After fog/stratus dissipate Wednesday morning we should be in for a
decent day with high temperatures in the mid/upper 80s east to
mid/upper 70s west. However, the cold front that moves through tonight
will be stalling out just to our south and will start pushing back to
the north by late Wednesday. This will start pushing some showers back
toward northwest North Carolina by late in the day but it currently
looks like we will get through the day dry. Will include some very low
POPs in the grids to cover the situation and show the trend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM EDT Tuesday...

Wednesday evening, the departing energy from an upper level
disturbance will allow for the potential for some isolated to
scattered showers and storms across the far southeast portion of the
forecast region. This features is expected to exit the region by
midnight, and with it and remaining shower activity.

High pressure will build into the Upper Ohio Valley with its
influence experience across mainly northern portions of the forecast
area. Concurrently, low pressure will move eastward along the coast
of the Gulf of Mexico. Moisture will start to advect northward along
the east side of this low and enter our region gradually Thursday.
Precipitation chances will increase from south to north with the
best chances across Southside Virginia and neighboring north central
North Carolina by the afternoon.

This pattern will continue into Friday with the focus for
precipitation across primarily the eastern portion of the region. A
small shift eastward in the axis of this precipitation will take
place as high pres an upper level trough moves through the Great
Lakes region. sure begins to nose south into western parts of the
area. By late Friday night, dry weather is expected.

Temperatures during this portion of the forecast will trend slightly
milder each day and be a few degrees within normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Tuesday...

Low pressure will deepen over northern Texas, and a warm front will
start to develop eastward into the Gulf Coast states. This front
will lift north into our region by Sunday and stall overhead through
early next week. This scenario will set the stage for a return to a
wet pattern. The low over texas will track eastward along the front
and provide increasing dynamics for the potential for heavy rain for
the end of the weekend into early next week.

High temperatures during the period will trend cooler while the low
temperatures will trend higher. By Monday of next week, high
temperatures will be slightly below normal and low will be slightly
above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 710 PM EDT Tuesday...

A shower may affect LWB around 00z, but overall all Terminals will
be dry. There will be a few showers and storms north and east of
LYH as well until 01z. VFR this evening. However, overnight winds
will slacken and ambient moisture is sufficient to generate at
least tempo IFR stratus/fog at most sites. Wednesday morning will
see fog/stratus dissipate with a return to VFR conditions expected
for the latter portion of the TAF period. Winds will generally be
light.

Extended discussion...

Thursday into Sunday, the high will shift to the east and the
region will be within southerly flow again. This pattern will have
the potential of advecting moisture back into the area. Showers
and storms will again be possible yielding areas of sub-VFR
conditions.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS/WP
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...MBS/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 290335
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1135 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through the region tonight and bring a most
welcome break of fair weather to the region for midweek. However, a
chance of showers and thunderstorm will return to the forecast as we
get to the latter portion of the work week, and our weather will become
increasingly unsettled with increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1125 PM EDT Tuesday...

Showers still lingering along the frontal boundary across
southwest Virginia, where latest meso analysis shows deep moisture
convergence. Favoring a trend toward drier weather shortly after
midnight with patchy fog developing. Otherwise, expect somewhat
lower dewpoints toward dawn at least as far east as the foothills.

Previous valid discussion...

Lows tonight will be right around normal for this time of year
with readings in the mid/upper 50s west of the Blue Ridge and
mid/upper 60s to the east.

After fog/stratus dissipate Wednesday morning we should be in for a
decent day with high temperatures in the mid/upper 80s east to
mid/upper 70s west. However, the cold front that moves through tonight
will be stalling out just to our south and will start pushing back to
the north by late Wednesday. This will start pushing some showers back
toward northwest North Carolina by late in the day but it currently
looks like we will get through the day dry. Will include some very low
POPs in the grids to cover the situation and show the trend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM EDT Tuesday...

Wednesday evening, the departing energy from an upper level
disturbance will allow for the potential for some isolated to
scattered showers and storms across the far southeast portion of the
forecast region. This features is expected to exit the region by
midnight, and with it and remaining shower activity.

High pressure will build into the Upper Ohio Valley with its
influence experience across mainly northern portions of the forecast
area. Concurrently, low pressure will move eastward along the coast
of the Gulf of Mexico. Moisture will start to advect northward along
the east side of this low and enter our region gradually Thursday.
Precipitation chances will increase from south to north with the
best chances across Southside Virginia and neighboring north central
North Carolina by the afternoon.

This pattern will continue into Friday with the focus for
precipitation across primarily the eastern portion of the region. A
small shift eastward in the axis of this precipitation will take
place as high pres an upper level trough moves through the Great
Lakes region. sure begins to nose south into western parts of the
area. By late Friday night, dry weather is expected.

Temperatures during this portion of the forecast will trend slightly
milder each day and be a few degrees within normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Tuesday...

Low pressure will deepen over northern Texas, and a warm front will
start to develop eastward into the Gulf Coast states. This front
will lift north into our region by Sunday and stall overhead through
early next week. This scenario will set the stage for a return to a
wet pattern. The low over texas will track eastward along the front
and provide increasing dynamics for the potential for heavy rain for
the end of the weekend into early next week.

High temperatures during the period will trend cooler while the low
temperatures will trend higher. By Monday of next week, high
temperatures will be slightly below normal and low will be slightly
above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 710 PM EDT Tuesday...

A shower may affect LWB around 00z, but overall all Terminals will
be dry. There will be a few showers and storms north and east of
LYH as well until 01z. VFR this evening. However, overnight winds
will slacken and ambient moisture is sufficient to generate at
least tempo IFR stratus/fog at most sites. Wednesday morning will
see fog/stratus dissipate with a return to VFR conditions expected
for the latter portion of the TAF period. Winds will generally be
light.

Extended discussion...

Thursday into Sunday, the high will shift to the east and the
region will be within southerly flow again. This pattern will have
the potential of advecting moisture back into the area. Showers
and storms will again be possible yielding areas of sub-VFR
conditions.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS/WP
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...MBS/WP



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KLWX 290327
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1127 PM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will continue to move southeast tonight and stall to
the south by Wednesday morning. High pressure will build in the
wake of the front. The next cold front crosses the area Saturday,
stalling over the southern Mid-Atlantic Sunday and eventually
pushing south Monday as high pressure builds in from the north.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH tonight/...
Severe thunderstorm watch is cancelled.

Overnight, the upper trough will move through from the west looks
to continue to promote isolated showers...mainly over northern
portions of the area. This will all be south of the area by
daybreak.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The front should push far enough south on Wednesday and Wednesday
night that dry weather will prevail across the forecast area,
although there may be some clouds at times given mid-level
troughing. Temperatures and humidity will be a notch lower.

The boundary will return back north on Thursday and Thursday night
as the high moves to the east. GFS continues to be the wettest
model on Thursday, but there will be a return southerly flow, so
will keep small POPs over southern parts of the CWA. Temperatures
and humidity will creep back upward.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An upper trough of low pressure and associated cold front at the
surface will move across the region Friday and Friday night. The
chance for showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front. The
timing and placement of precipitation development is uncertain at
this time, but given bulk shear around 30 kt, a few stronger
storms could occur.

Unsettled conditions could linger through much of the weekend as the
associated surface cold front lingers just to our south. Additional
showers and thunderstorms could develop along this front Saturday
through Sunday night.

The next storm system will develop along the front at the western
end of the Ohio Valley Sunday night into Monday as the stalled front
starts tracking northward as a warm front. The threat for showers
and thunderstorms will be concentrated across central and southern
Virginia by the end of the weekend.

This shower and thunderstorm threat will then propagate north toward
the Mason-Dixon line as the newly-formed storm system moves parallel
to the Ohio Valley Monday through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A cold front will cross from the NW tonight with leading
thunderstorms moving SE from DC metros. Depending on how quickly
drier air arrives, there could be some fog, but did not feel
confident enough to put in the TAFs. VFR in high pressure
Wednesday and Wednesday night. Front returns north Thursday and
Thursday night, although the probability of precipitation is low.

MVFR or IFR conditions possible at times Friday through the
weekend with showers and thunderstorms. Winds southwest to west 5
to 10 knots Friday and Friday night.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front over the waters will push south Wednesday and
returns north late this week, with a cold front being slow to push
into the area this weekend. In general, sub-SCA conditions
expected.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Ongoing flooding concerns through into the early morning for
Prince William, Stafford, and Spotsylvania counties from earlier
heavy rain. Flood warnings continue.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/ADS
NEAR TERM...BAJ/ADS
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...BAJ/ADS/KLW
MARINE...BAJ/ADS/KLW
HYDROLOGY...BAJ




000
FXUS61 KLWX 290327
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1127 PM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will continue to move southeast tonight and stall to
the south by Wednesday morning. High pressure will build in the
wake of the front. The next cold front crosses the area Saturday,
stalling over the southern Mid-Atlantic Sunday and eventually
pushing south Monday as high pressure builds in from the north.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH tonight/...
Severe thunderstorm watch is cancelled.

Overnight, the upper trough will move through from the west looks
to continue to promote isolated showers...mainly over northern
portions of the area. This will all be south of the area by
daybreak.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The front should push far enough south on Wednesday and Wednesday
night that dry weather will prevail across the forecast area,
although there may be some clouds at times given mid-level
troughing. Temperatures and humidity will be a notch lower.

The boundary will return back north on Thursday and Thursday night
as the high moves to the east. GFS continues to be the wettest
model on Thursday, but there will be a return southerly flow, so
will keep small POPs over southern parts of the CWA. Temperatures
and humidity will creep back upward.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An upper trough of low pressure and associated cold front at the
surface will move across the region Friday and Friday night. The
chance for showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front. The
timing and placement of precipitation development is uncertain at
this time, but given bulk shear around 30 kt, a few stronger
storms could occur.

Unsettled conditions could linger through much of the weekend as the
associated surface cold front lingers just to our south. Additional
showers and thunderstorms could develop along this front Saturday
through Sunday night.

The next storm system will develop along the front at the western
end of the Ohio Valley Sunday night into Monday as the stalled front
starts tracking northward as a warm front. The threat for showers
and thunderstorms will be concentrated across central and southern
Virginia by the end of the weekend.

This shower and thunderstorm threat will then propagate north toward
the Mason-Dixon line as the newly-formed storm system moves parallel
to the Ohio Valley Monday through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A cold front will cross from the NW tonight with leading
thunderstorms moving SE from DC metros. Depending on how quickly
drier air arrives, there could be some fog, but did not feel
confident enough to put in the TAFs. VFR in high pressure
Wednesday and Wednesday night. Front returns north Thursday and
Thursday night, although the probability of precipitation is low.

MVFR or IFR conditions possible at times Friday through the
weekend with showers and thunderstorms. Winds southwest to west 5
to 10 knots Friday and Friday night.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front over the waters will push south Wednesday and
returns north late this week, with a cold front being slow to push
into the area this weekend. In general, sub-SCA conditions
expected.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Ongoing flooding concerns through into the early morning for
Prince William, Stafford, and Spotsylvania counties from earlier
heavy rain. Flood warnings continue.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/ADS
NEAR TERM...BAJ/ADS
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...BAJ/ADS/KLW
MARINE...BAJ/ADS/KLW
HYDROLOGY...BAJ



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290159
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
959 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front slowly moves across the region through tonight. Weak
high pressure builds in from the north Wednesday and Thursday as
the front stalls across the Carolinas. The next cold front
approaches the region Friday, stalling along the coast into the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Area of shras/tstms mnly confined to just N of the FA border...fm
far nrn VA to the cntrl Delmarva. Hi res-nr term guid keep most of
the shras/tstms fm the Nrn Neck VA to the lwr MD ern shore through
06-09z/29. POPs 30-60% in those areas...while mostly aob 20% elsw.
Kept mention of patchy fog lt away fm the rivers/bay/ocn. Most
lows 65-70F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Embedded shortwave in cyclonic flow aloft pushes across the Ohio
Valley Wednesday. Tonight`s cold front stalls in the vicinity of
northeast North Carolina in westerly flow as high pressure builds in
from the northwest. Increasing winds aloft along with modest height
falls will interact with lingering mid level moisture for scattered
showers and thunderstorms across far southeast Virginia and
northeast North Carolina. Elsewhere, dry conditions expected as high
pressure builds over the mountains and dewpoints cool into the low
to mid 60`s. Seasonal daytime temps with highs in the mid to upper
80`s under a partly cloudy sky. Shortwave energy drops over the
local area Wednesday night as the frontal boundary remains over
northeast North Carolina. Retained slight chance to chance POPs far
southern VA and northeast North Carolina. Dry elsewhere. Lows in
the low to mid 60`s.

Quasi-stationary boundary remains in the vicinity of northeast North
Carolina Thursday. High pressure builds into the northern Mid-
Atlantic region early Thursday, before retreating back over the
Midwest Thursday afternoon as the next shortwave drops into the
Kentucky/Tennessee Valleys. Low pressure progged to develop over the
Gulf States Thursday with an inverted trough extending northward
into the central Appalachians. The frontal boundary along the
Southeast coast will begin to slowly lift northward. Still believe
course resolution models are overdone with precip across the local
area Thursday due to a lack of isentropic lift and appreciable
forcing. However, moisture return and elevated instability will be
enough for isolated to scattered diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms across the southwest half of the forecast area. Highs
Thursday in the mid 80`s. Will maintain slight chance POPs Thursday
night as the upstream shortwave pushes across the region in tandem
with increasing winds aloft. Lows in the mid to upper 60`s.

The next northern stream trough digs into the Great Lakes/New
England Friday. An associated cold front pushes into the Ohio Valley
late Friday. Meanwhile, the stubborn frontal boundary remains in the
vicinity of southeast Virginia/northeast North Carolina. Better
moisture return Friday in deep layer southwest flow will push
precipitable waters toward 1.5 to 1.75 inches. Dewpoints warm back
into the upper 60`s. Will keep mention of chance POPs Friday
afternoon for diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms. Highs in
the mid to upper 80`s under a partly cloudy sky.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
No major changes in forecast rationale made for the holiday weekend
into early next week. Active northern stream upper trough will
transition to a quasi-zonal w-nw flow aloft for the weekend into
early next week. Meanwhile, at the surface, a rather stagnant
pattern looks to set up. The aforementioned weak front/sfc trough
will linger over the local area, serving as the focus for mainly
diurnally driven showers and T-Storms Saturday and Sunday. Warm,
moist airmass (PW AOA 2" from through the weekend), in tandem with
the boundary and numerous disturbances riding across the area in
zonal flow aloft will bring a solid chance for mainly diurnally
driven showers and tstms, with locally heavy rainfall possible,
especially over the southern half of the area Saturday and Sunday.
Front eventually gets shunted SE of the local area by a next cool
front late in the weekend into early Monday, bringing some hope of
salvaging a mainly dry Independence Day across our area.

For temps, wet pattern favors temperatures hovering right around or
even just a bit below climo normal. Look for highs in the mid to
upper 80s across the area, a bit lower maxima in the low 80s along
the immediate coast. Early morning lows generally in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
All TAF sites are VFR at 00Z except SBY which has MVFR ceilings. A
line of showers and thunderstorms is moving towards the Md Eastern
Shore but am not sure whether the activity will reach SBY. This
weather is moving ahead of a cold front that will push through the
region overnight and stall near the coast on Wed.

Guidance is showing some fog development tonight. Expect fog to
reduce visibility to possible IFR conditions on the Eastern Shore
and MVFR/IFR conditions at other sites. The stalled front will
meander over the southern portions of the forecast region for the
next couple of days and there will be a chance for
afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms during the remainder
of the week.

&&

.MARINE...
Latest obs reflect sw flow (predominately sub-SCA ~10-15 kt) across
the waters this aftn. Pre-frontal trough continues to linger across
the area, as weak sfc cool front lingers west of the waters in the
interior Mid-Atlantic region, from C PA back into W VA. Some sct
Pre-frontal showers continue across the local area, and while some
stronger gusts are possible under the strongest storms, and can be
handled with Marine Wx Statements and warnings as needed, the
predominate conditions remain sub-SCA late afternoon and early this
evening.

Winds will lessen a bit tonight/overnight, as the (weak) cool
front and accompanying wind shift to the N-NE wind drops across
the waters. 1022+mb sfc high pressure pushes from the Great Lakes
toward the OH Valley on Wed, with low level surface wind flow
likely light enough to allow seabreeze interactions to dominate
nearshore. A general WNW flow takes over by later Wed evening/Wed
night, becoming ENE to E flow on Thu. The weak front/sfc trough
will meander over/just south of the area for the late week period,
and will serve as the focus for late day convection over the area
late in the week and through the weekend. A second, somewhat
stronger front will shunt the boundary south of the local area
late in the weekend into early next week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Chances to add to an already wet month through tonight. June has
been another wet month at Richmond, the monthly total rainfall
through the 27th stands at 6.92" and already makes this the 9th
wettest June on record (2004 is wettest June with 9.93").

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB/SAM
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...LKB/SAM
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...MAS/JEF
MARINE...MAM
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KLWX 290130
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
930 PM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will continue to move southeast tonight and stall to
the south by Wednesday morning. High pressure will build in the
wake of the front. The next cold front crosses the area Saturday,
stalling over the southern Mid-Atlantic Sunday and eventually
pushing south Monday as high pressure builds in from the north.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH tonight/...
Expanded the severe thunderstorm watch to the rest of the
southeastern zones and most of the waters and extended until
midnight. Balt- wash metro areas have been cancelled from the
watch as expected.

Overnight, the upper trough will move through and may promote
isolated showers over the area. This will all be south of the area
by daybreak.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The front should push far enough south on Wednesday and Wednesday
night that dry weather will prevail across the forecast area,
although there may be some clouds at times given mid-level
troughing. Temperatures and humidity will be a notch lower.

The boundary will return back north on Thursday and Thursday night
as the high moves to the east. GFS continues to be the wettest
model on Thursday, but there will be a return southerly flow, so
will keep small POPs over southern parts of the CWA. Temperatures
and humidity will creep back upward.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An upper trough of low pressure and associated cold front at the
surface will move across the region Friday and Friday night. The
chance for showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front. The
timing and placement of precipitation development is uncertain at
this time, but given bulk shear around 30 kt, a few stronger
storms could occur.

Unsettled conditions could linger through much of the weekend as the
associated surface cold front lingers just to our south. Additional
showers and thunderstorms could develop along this front Saturday
through Sunday night.

The next storm system will develop along the front at the western
end of the Ohio Valley Sunday night into Monday as the stalled front
starts tracking northward as a warm front. The threat for showers
and thunderstorms will be concentrated across central and southern
Virginia by the end of the weekend.

This shower and thunderstorm threat will then propagate north toward
the Mason-Dixon line as the newly-formed storm system moves parallel
to the Ohio Valley Monday through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A cold front will cross from the NW tonight with leading
thunderstorms moving SE from DC metros. Depending on how quickly
drier air arrives, there could be some fog, but did not feel
confident enough to put in the TAFs. VFR in high pressure
Wednesday and Wednesday night. Front returns north Thursday and
Thursday night, although the probability of precipitation is low.

MVFR or IFR conditions possible at times Friday through the
weekend with showers and thunderstorms. Winds southwest to west 5
to 10 knots Friday and Friday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Ongoing thunderstorms for southern MD waters. Cold Front pushes
south Wednesday and returns north late this week, with a cold
front being slow to push into the area this weekend. In general,
sub-SCA conditions expected.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/ADS
NEAR TERM...BAJ/ADS
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...BAJ/ADS/KLW
MARINE...BAJ/ADS/KLW




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290042
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
842 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front slowly moves across the region this evening through
tonight. Weak high pressure builds in from the north Wednesday and
Thursday as the front stalls across the Carolinas. The next cold
front approaches the region Friday, stalling along the coast into
the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Per latest radar trends, widespread showers have reached the
Tidewater into northeast North Carolina. Another line of light
showers observed into central Virginia. This activity is ahead of a
cold front currently pushing across the mountains. Aloft, the
associated upper level trough is digging over the Great Lakes into
the Ohio Valley. Expect the showers over the southeast forecast area
to push offshore late this afternoon into this evening. Attention
then turns to showers/thunderstorms developing along the front over
south central Pennsylvania into northwest Virginia. A clear sky over
the northwest local area has pushed temperatures into the upper 80`s
to near 90. A moist boundary layer thanks to dewpoints in the low
70`s has resulted in MLCAPE values of 1500 to 2000 J/kg per latest
SPC mesoanalysis. Deep layer shear remains marginal as the best
height falls are north of the local area. Hi-res guidance continues
to develop scattered showers and thunderstorms southward into the
northern Piedmont late this afternoon/early this evening ahead of
the front. Showers/thunderstorms then push eastward across the
northern area, extending as far southward as Richmond by mid-evening
as winds aloft increase. Gusty winds are not out of the question
with an inverted V sounding, but mid level winds remain rather light
(hence limited shear). Precipitable waters remain between 1.5 and
1.75 inches, so locally heavy rainfall is also possible. SPC
maintains its marginal risk across the northern half of the forecast
area. Expect the front to reach the coast by late tonight, with a
drying trend in its wake. Sky averages mostly clear inland to partly
cloudy near the coast late tonight. Lows generally in the mid to
upper 60`s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Embedded shortwave in cyclonic flow aloft pushes across the Ohio
Valley Wednesday. Tonight`s cold front stalls in the vicinity of
northeast North Carolina in westerly flow as high pressure builds in
from the northwest. Increasing winds aloft along with modest height
falls will interact with lingering mid level moisture for scattered
showers and thunderstorms across far southeast Virginia and
northeast North Carolina. Elsewhere, dry conditions expected as high
pressure builds over the mountains and dewpoints cool into the low
to mid 60`s. Seasonal daytime temps with highs in the mid to upper
80`s under a partly cloudy sky. Shortwave energy drops over the
local area Wednesday night as the frontal boundary remains over
northeast North Carolina. Retained slight chance to chance POPs far
southern VA and northeast North Carolina. Dry elsewhere. Lows in
the low to mid 60`s.

Quasi-stationary boundary remains in the vicinity of northeast North
Carolina Thursday. High pressure builds into the northern Mid-
Atlantic region early Thursday, before retreating back over the
Midwest Thursday afternoon as the next shortwave drops into the
Kentucky/Tennessee Valleys. Low pressure progged to develop over the
Gulf States Thursday with an inverted trough extending northward
into the central Appalachians. The frontal boundary along the
Southeast coast will begin to slowly lift northward. Still believe
course resolution models are overdone with precip across the local
area Thursday due to a lack of isentropic lift and appreciable
forcing. However, moisture return and elevated instability will be
enough for isolated to scattered diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms across the southwest half of the forecast area. Highs
Thursday in the mid 80`s. Will maintain slight chance POPs Thursday
night as the upstream shortwave pushes across the region in tandem
with increasing winds aloft. Lows in the mid to upper 60`s.

The next northern stream trough digs into the Great Lakes/New
England Friday. An associated cold front pushes into the Ohio Valley
late Friday. Meanwhile, the stubborn frontal boundary remains in the
vicinity of southeast Virginia/northeast North Carolina. Better
moisture return Friday in deep layer southwest flow will push
precipitable waters toward 1.5 to 1.75 inches. Dewpoints warm back
into the upper 60`s. Will keep mention of chance POPs Friday
afternoon for diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms. Highs in
the mid to upper 80`s under a partly cloudy sky.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
No major changes in forecast rationale made for the holiday weekend
into early next week. Active northern stream upper trough will
transition to a quasi-zonal w-nw flow aloft for the weekend into
early next week. Meanwhile, at the surface, a rather stagnant
pattern looks to set up. The aforementioned weak front/sfc trough
will linger over the local area, serving as the focus for mainly
diurnally driven showers and T-Storms Saturday and Sunday. Warm,
moist airmass (PW AOA 2" from through the weekend), in tandem with
the boundary and numerous disturbances riding across the area in
zonal flow aloft will bring a solid chance for mainly diurnally
driven showers and tstms, with locally heavy rainfall possible,
especially over the southern half of the area Saturday and Sunday.
Front eventually gets shunted SE of the local area by a next cool
front late in the weekend into early Monday, bringing some hope of
salvaging a mainly dry Independence Day across our area.

For temps, wet pattern favors temperatures hovering right around or
even just a bit below climo normal. Look for highs in the mid to
upper 80s across the area, a bit lower maxima in the low 80s along
the immediate coast. Early morning lows generally in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
All TAF sites are VFR at 00Z except SBY which has MVFR ceilings. A
line of showers and thunderstorms is moving towards the Md Eastern
Shore but am not sure whether the activity will reach SBY. This
weather is moving ahead of a cold front that will push through the
region overnight and stall near the coast on Wed.

Guidance is showing some fog development tonight. Expect fog to
reduce visibility to possible IFR conditions on the Eastern Shore
and MVFR/IFR conditions at other sites. The stalled front will
meander over the southern portions of the forecast region for the
next couple of days and there will be a chance for
afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms during the remainder
of the week.

&&

.MARINE...
Latest obs reflect sw flow (predominately sub-SCA ~10-15 kt) across
the waters this aftn. Pre-frontal trough continues to linger across
the area, as weak sfc cool front lingers west of the waters in the
interior Mid-Atlantic region, from C PA back into W VA. Some sct
Pre-frontal showers continue across the local area, and while some
stronger gusts are possible under the strongest storms, and can be
handled with Marine Wx Statements and warnings as needed, the
predominate conditions remain sub-SCA late afternoon and early this
evening.

Winds will lessen a bit tonight/overnight, as the (weak) cool
front and accompanying wind shift to the N-NE wind drops across
the waters. 1022+mb sfc high pressure pushes from the Great Lakes
toward the OH Valley on Wed, with low level surface wind flow
likely light enough to allow seabreeze interactions to dominate
nearshore. A general WNW flow takes over by later Wed evening/Wed
night, becoming ENE to E flow on Thu. The weak front/sfc trough
will meander over/just south of the area for the late week period,
and will serve as the focus for late day convection over the area
late in the week and through the weekend. A second, somewhat
stronger front will shunt the boundary south of the local area
late in the weekend into early next week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Chances to add to an already wet month through tonight. June has
been another wet month at Richmond, the monthly total rainfall
through the 27th stands at 6.92" and already makes this the 9th
wettest June on record (2004 is wettest June with 9.93").

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB/SAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...LKB/SAM
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...MAS/JEF
MARINE...MAM
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290042
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
842 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front slowly moves across the region this evening through
tonight. Weak high pressure builds in from the north Wednesday and
Thursday as the front stalls across the Carolinas. The next cold
front approaches the region Friday, stalling along the coast into
the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Per latest radar trends, widespread showers have reached the
Tidewater into northeast North Carolina. Another line of light
showers observed into central Virginia. This activity is ahead of a
cold front currently pushing across the mountains. Aloft, the
associated upper level trough is digging over the Great Lakes into
the Ohio Valley. Expect the showers over the southeast forecast area
to push offshore late this afternoon into this evening. Attention
then turns to showers/thunderstorms developing along the front over
south central Pennsylvania into northwest Virginia. A clear sky over
the northwest local area has pushed temperatures into the upper 80`s
to near 90. A moist boundary layer thanks to dewpoints in the low
70`s has resulted in MLCAPE values of 1500 to 2000 J/kg per latest
SPC mesoanalysis. Deep layer shear remains marginal as the best
height falls are north of the local area. Hi-res guidance continues
to develop scattered showers and thunderstorms southward into the
northern Piedmont late this afternoon/early this evening ahead of
the front. Showers/thunderstorms then push eastward across the
northern area, extending as far southward as Richmond by mid-evening
as winds aloft increase. Gusty winds are not out of the question
with an inverted V sounding, but mid level winds remain rather light
(hence limited shear). Precipitable waters remain between 1.5 and
1.75 inches, so locally heavy rainfall is also possible. SPC
maintains its marginal risk across the northern half of the forecast
area. Expect the front to reach the coast by late tonight, with a
drying trend in its wake. Sky averages mostly clear inland to partly
cloudy near the coast late tonight. Lows generally in the mid to
upper 60`s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Embedded shortwave in cyclonic flow aloft pushes across the Ohio
Valley Wednesday. Tonight`s cold front stalls in the vicinity of
northeast North Carolina in westerly flow as high pressure builds in
from the northwest. Increasing winds aloft along with modest height
falls will interact with lingering mid level moisture for scattered
showers and thunderstorms across far southeast Virginia and
northeast North Carolina. Elsewhere, dry conditions expected as high
pressure builds over the mountains and dewpoints cool into the low
to mid 60`s. Seasonal daytime temps with highs in the mid to upper
80`s under a partly cloudy sky. Shortwave energy drops over the
local area Wednesday night as the frontal boundary remains over
northeast North Carolina. Retained slight chance to chance POPs far
southern VA and northeast North Carolina. Dry elsewhere. Lows in
the low to mid 60`s.

Quasi-stationary boundary remains in the vicinity of northeast North
Carolina Thursday. High pressure builds into the northern Mid-
Atlantic region early Thursday, before retreating back over the
Midwest Thursday afternoon as the next shortwave drops into the
Kentucky/Tennessee Valleys. Low pressure progged to develop over the
Gulf States Thursday with an inverted trough extending northward
into the central Appalachians. The frontal boundary along the
Southeast coast will begin to slowly lift northward. Still believe
course resolution models are overdone with precip across the local
area Thursday due to a lack of isentropic lift and appreciable
forcing. However, moisture return and elevated instability will be
enough for isolated to scattered diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms across the southwest half of the forecast area. Highs
Thursday in the mid 80`s. Will maintain slight chance POPs Thursday
night as the upstream shortwave pushes across the region in tandem
with increasing winds aloft. Lows in the mid to upper 60`s.

The next northern stream trough digs into the Great Lakes/New
England Friday. An associated cold front pushes into the Ohio Valley
late Friday. Meanwhile, the stubborn frontal boundary remains in the
vicinity of southeast Virginia/northeast North Carolina. Better
moisture return Friday in deep layer southwest flow will push
precipitable waters toward 1.5 to 1.75 inches. Dewpoints warm back
into the upper 60`s. Will keep mention of chance POPs Friday
afternoon for diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms. Highs in
the mid to upper 80`s under a partly cloudy sky.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
No major changes in forecast rationale made for the holiday weekend
into early next week. Active northern stream upper trough will
transition to a quasi-zonal w-nw flow aloft for the weekend into
early next week. Meanwhile, at the surface, a rather stagnant
pattern looks to set up. The aforementioned weak front/sfc trough
will linger over the local area, serving as the focus for mainly
diurnally driven showers and T-Storms Saturday and Sunday. Warm,
moist airmass (PW AOA 2" from through the weekend), in tandem with
the boundary and numerous disturbances riding across the area in
zonal flow aloft will bring a solid chance for mainly diurnally
driven showers and tstms, with locally heavy rainfall possible,
especially over the southern half of the area Saturday and Sunday.
Front eventually gets shunted SE of the local area by a next cool
front late in the weekend into early Monday, bringing some hope of
salvaging a mainly dry Independence Day across our area.

For temps, wet pattern favors temperatures hovering right around or
even just a bit below climo normal. Look for highs in the mid to
upper 80s across the area, a bit lower maxima in the low 80s along
the immediate coast. Early morning lows generally in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
All TAF sites are VFR at 00Z except SBY which has MVFR ceilings. A
line of showers and thunderstorms is moving towards the Md Eastern
Shore but am not sure whether the activity will reach SBY. This
weather is moving ahead of a cold front that will push through the
region overnight and stall near the coast on Wed.

Guidance is showing some fog development tonight. Expect fog to
reduce visibility to possible IFR conditions on the Eastern Shore
and MVFR/IFR conditions at other sites. The stalled front will
meander over the southern portions of the forecast region for the
next couple of days and there will be a chance for
afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms during the remainder
of the week.

&&

.MARINE...
Latest obs reflect sw flow (predominately sub-SCA ~10-15 kt) across
the waters this aftn. Pre-frontal trough continues to linger across
the area, as weak sfc cool front lingers west of the waters in the
interior Mid-Atlantic region, from C PA back into W VA. Some sct
Pre-frontal showers continue across the local area, and while some
stronger gusts are possible under the strongest storms, and can be
handled with Marine Wx Statements and warnings as needed, the
predominate conditions remain sub-SCA late afternoon and early this
evening.

Winds will lessen a bit tonight/overnight, as the (weak) cool
front and accompanying wind shift to the N-NE wind drops across
the waters. 1022+mb sfc high pressure pushes from the Great Lakes
toward the OH Valley on Wed, with low level surface wind flow
likely light enough to allow seabreeze interactions to dominate
nearshore. A general WNW flow takes over by later Wed evening/Wed
night, becoming ENE to E flow on Thu. The weak front/sfc trough
will meander over/just south of the area for the late week period,
and will serve as the focus for late day convection over the area
late in the week and through the weekend. A second, somewhat
stronger front will shunt the boundary south of the local area
late in the weekend into early next week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Chances to add to an already wet month through tonight. June has
been another wet month at Richmond, the monthly total rainfall
through the 27th stands at 6.92" and already makes this the 9th
wettest June on record (2004 is wettest June with 9.93").

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB/SAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...LKB/SAM
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...MAS/JEF
MARINE...MAM
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KRNK 282313
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
713 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through the region tonight and bring a most
welcome break of fair weather to the region for midweek. However, a
chance of showers and thunderstorm will return to the forecast as we
get to the latter portion of the work week, and our weather will become
increasingly unsettled with increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 615 PM EDT Tuesday...

Have confined isolated to scattered convection to Amherst to
Charlotte County VA early this evening per latest radar/meso
trends. Vis satellite showing cu field trying to expand southward
along/near the Blue Ridge with another showers popping up a couple
counties south of Watauga. Cannot rule out a sprinkle, but expect
main focus to be over the Virginia piedmont albeit limited
coverage. Drier air slower to arrive as second front still stuck
near the Blue Ridge. Raised dewpoint temperatures mainly in the
eastern forecast area through early evening to account for slower
arrival of lower humidity.

Previous afternoon discussion...

The cold front is making slow but steady progress across the
forecast area and the bulk of precipitation is now east of the
region, with just a few lingering sprinkles across the piedmont.
Will keep some very low POPs out east into this evening for any
stray showers that do manage to tap into a lingering pool of
instability ahead of the front but we look to be dry for the
overnight period. With high soil moisture and expected light
wind/clearing skies early tonight patchy fog is a good bet
especially in the valleys. Lows tonight will be right around
normal for this time of year with readings in the mid/upper 50s
west of the Blue Ridge and mid/upper 60s to the east.

After fog/stratus dissipate Wednesday morning we should be in for a
decent day with high temperatures in the mid/upper 80s east to
mid/upper 70s west. However, the cold front that moves through tonight
will be stalling out just to our south and will start pushing back to
the north by late Wednesday. This will start pushing some showers back
toward northwest North Carolina by late in the day but it currently
looks like we will get through the day dry. Will include some very low
POPs in the grids to cover the situation and show the trend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM EDT Tuesday...

Wednesday evening, the departing energy from an upper level
disturbance will allow for the potential for some isolated to
scattered showers and storms across the far southeast portion of the
forecast region. This features is expected to exit the region by
midnight, and with it and remaining shower activity.

High pressure will build into the Upper Ohio Valley with its
influence experience across mainly northern portions of the forecast
area. Concurrently, low pressure will move eastward along the coast
of the Gulf of Mexico. Moisture will start to advect northward along
the east side of this low and enter our region gradually Thursday.
Precipitation chances will increase from south to north with the
best chances across Southside Virginia and neighboring north central
North Carolina by the afternoon.

This pattern will continue into Friday with the focus for
precipitation across primarily the eastern portion of the region. A
small shift eastward in the axis of this precipitation will take
place as high pres an upper level trough moves through the Great
Lakes region. sure begins to nose south into western parts of the
area. By late Friday night, dry weather is expected.

Temperatures during this portion of the forecast will trend slightly
milder each day and be a few degrees within normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Tuesday...

Low pressure will deepen over northern Texas, and a warm front will
start to develop eastward into the Gulf Coast states. This front
will lift north into our region by Sunday and stall overhead through
early next week. This scenario will set the stage for a return to a
wet pattern. The low over texas will track eastward along the front
and provide increasing dynamics for the potential for heavy rain for
the end of the weekend into early next week.

High temperatures during the period will trend cooler while the low
temperatures will trend higher. By Monday of next week, high
temperatures will be slightly below normal and low will be slightly
above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 710 PM EDT Tuesday...

A shower may affect LWB around 00z, but overall all Terminals will
be dry. There will be a few showers and storms north and east of
LYH as well until 01z. VFR this evening. However, overnight winds
will slacken and ambient moisture is sufficient to generate at
least tempo IFR stratus/fog at most sites. Wednesday morning will
see fog/stratus dissipate with a return to VFR conditions expected
for the latter portion of the TAF period. Winds will generally be
light.

Extended discussion...

Thursday into Sunday, the high will shift to the east and the
region will be within southerly flow again. This pattern will have
the potential of advecting moisture back into the area. Showers
and storms will again be possible yielding areas of sub-VFR
conditions.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS/WP
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...MBS/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 282313
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
713 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through the region tonight and bring a most
welcome break of fair weather to the region for midweek. However, a
chance of showers and thunderstorm will return to the forecast as we
get to the latter portion of the work week, and our weather will become
increasingly unsettled with increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 615 PM EDT Tuesday...

Have confined isolated to scattered convection to Amherst to
Charlotte County VA early this evening per latest radar/meso
trends. Vis satellite showing cu field trying to expand southward
along/near the Blue Ridge with another showers popping up a couple
counties south of Watauga. Cannot rule out a sprinkle, but expect
main focus to be over the Virginia piedmont albeit limited
coverage. Drier air slower to arrive as second front still stuck
near the Blue Ridge. Raised dewpoint temperatures mainly in the
eastern forecast area through early evening to account for slower
arrival of lower humidity.

Previous afternoon discussion...

The cold front is making slow but steady progress across the
forecast area and the bulk of precipitation is now east of the
region, with just a few lingering sprinkles across the piedmont.
Will keep some very low POPs out east into this evening for any
stray showers that do manage to tap into a lingering pool of
instability ahead of the front but we look to be dry for the
overnight period. With high soil moisture and expected light
wind/clearing skies early tonight patchy fog is a good bet
especially in the valleys. Lows tonight will be right around
normal for this time of year with readings in the mid/upper 50s
west of the Blue Ridge and mid/upper 60s to the east.

After fog/stratus dissipate Wednesday morning we should be in for a
decent day with high temperatures in the mid/upper 80s east to
mid/upper 70s west. However, the cold front that moves through tonight
will be stalling out just to our south and will start pushing back to
the north by late Wednesday. This will start pushing some showers back
toward northwest North Carolina by late in the day but it currently
looks like we will get through the day dry. Will include some very low
POPs in the grids to cover the situation and show the trend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM EDT Tuesday...

Wednesday evening, the departing energy from an upper level
disturbance will allow for the potential for some isolated to
scattered showers and storms across the far southeast portion of the
forecast region. This features is expected to exit the region by
midnight, and with it and remaining shower activity.

High pressure will build into the Upper Ohio Valley with its
influence experience across mainly northern portions of the forecast
area. Concurrently, low pressure will move eastward along the coast
of the Gulf of Mexico. Moisture will start to advect northward along
the east side of this low and enter our region gradually Thursday.
Precipitation chances will increase from south to north with the
best chances across Southside Virginia and neighboring north central
North Carolina by the afternoon.

This pattern will continue into Friday with the focus for
precipitation across primarily the eastern portion of the region. A
small shift eastward in the axis of this precipitation will take
place as high pres an upper level trough moves through the Great
Lakes region. sure begins to nose south into western parts of the
area. By late Friday night, dry weather is expected.

Temperatures during this portion of the forecast will trend slightly
milder each day and be a few degrees within normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Tuesday...

Low pressure will deepen over northern Texas, and a warm front will
start to develop eastward into the Gulf Coast states. This front
will lift north into our region by Sunday and stall overhead through
early next week. This scenario will set the stage for a return to a
wet pattern. The low over texas will track eastward along the front
and provide increasing dynamics for the potential for heavy rain for
the end of the weekend into early next week.

High temperatures during the period will trend cooler while the low
temperatures will trend higher. By Monday of next week, high
temperatures will be slightly below normal and low will be slightly
above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 710 PM EDT Tuesday...

A shower may affect LWB around 00z, but overall all Terminals will
be dry. There will be a few showers and storms north and east of
LYH as well until 01z. VFR this evening. However, overnight winds
will slacken and ambient moisture is sufficient to generate at
least tempo IFR stratus/fog at most sites. Wednesday morning will
see fog/stratus dissipate with a return to VFR conditions expected
for the latter portion of the TAF period. Winds will generally be
light.

Extended discussion...

Thursday into Sunday, the high will shift to the east and the
region will be within southerly flow again. This pattern will have
the potential of advecting moisture back into the area. Showers
and storms will again be possible yielding areas of sub-VFR
conditions.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS/WP
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...MBS/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 282220
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
620 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through the region tonight and bring a most
welcome break of fair weather to the region for midweek. However, a
chance of showers and thunderstorm will return to the forecast as we
get to the latter portion of the work week, and our weather will become
increasingly unsettled with increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 615 PM EDT Tuesday...

Have confined isolated to scattered convection to Amherst to
Charlotte County VA early this evening per latest radar/meso
trends. Vis satellite showing cu field trying to expand southward
along/near the Blue Ridge with another showers popping up a couple
counties south of Watauga. Cannot rule out a sprinkle, but expect
main focus to be over the Virginia piedmont albeit limited
coverage. Drier air slower to arrive as second front still stuck
near the Blue Ridge. Raised dewpoint temperatures mainly in the
eastern forecast area through early evening to account for slower
arrival of lower humidity.

Previous afternoon discussion...

The cold front is making slow but steady progress across the
forecast area and the bulk of precipitation is now east of the
region, with just a few lingering sprinkles across the piedmont.
Will keep some very low POPs out east into this evening for any
stray showers that do manage to tap into a lingering pool of
instability ahead of the front but we look to be dry for the
overnight period. With high soil moisture and expected light
wind/clearing skies early tonight patchy fog is a good bet
especially in the valleys. Lows tonight will be right around
normal for this time of year with readings in the mid/upper 50s
west of the Blue Ridge and mid/upper 60s to the east.

After fog/stratus dissipate Wednesday morning we should be in for a
decent day with high temperatures in the mid/upper 80s east to
mid/upper 70s west. However, the cold front that moves through tonight
will be stalling out just to our south and will start pushing back to
the north by late Wednesday. This will start pushing some showers back
toward northwest North Carolina by late in the day but it currently
looks like we will get through the day dry. Will include some very low
POPs in the grids to cover the situation and show the trend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM EDT Tuesday...

Wednesday evening, the departing energy from an upper level
disturbance will allow for the potential for some isolated to
scattered showers and storms across the far southeast portion of the
forecast region. This features is expected to exit the region by
midnight, and with it and remaining shower activity.

High pressure will build into the Upper Ohio Valley with its
influence experience across mainly northern portions of the forecast
area. Concurrently, low pressure will move eastward along the coast
of the Gulf of Mexico. Moisture will start to advect northward along
the east side of this low and enter our region gradually Thursday.
Precipitation chances will increase from south to north with the
best chances across Southside Virginia and neighboring north central
North Carolina by the afternoon.

This pattern will continue into Friday with the focus for
precipitation across primarily the eastern portion of the region. A
small shift eastward in the axis of this precipitation will take
place as high pres an upper level trough moves through the Great
Lakes region. sure begins to nose south into western parts of the
area. By late Friday night, dry weather is expected.

Temperatures during this portion of the forecast will trend slightly
milder each day and be a few degrees within normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Tuesday...

Low pressure will deepen over northern Texas, and a warm front will
start to develop eastward into the Gulf Coast states. This front
will lift north into our region by Sunday and stall overhead through
early next week. This scenario will set the stage for a return to a
wet pattern. The low over texas will track eastward along the front
and provide increasing dynamics for the potential for heavy rain for
the end of the weekend into early next week.

High temperatures during the period will trend cooler while the low
temperatures will trend higher. By Monday of next week, high
temperatures will be slightly below normal and low will be slightly
above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Tuesday...

A slow moving cold front is on our western doorstep and will be
moving across the TAF sites early this period. However, the best
support for convective precipitation has shifted east and current
radar shows very sparse returns east of the Blue Ridge. Will just
use VCSH to cover any stray showers that manage to develop just
ahead of the front at KLYH and KDAN but maintain a dry forecast at
other sites. GOES rapid scan visible satellite imagery and surface
obs indicate cloud height is generally VFR with cigs of mainly a
mid deck. There is some Cu developing upstream and this may be a
SCT/V/BKN situation from the Blue Ridge west, but will maintain
VFR conditions through the first part of the period. However, early
tonight winds will slacken and ambient moisture is sufficient to
generate at least tempo IFR stratus/fog at most sites. Wednesday
morning will see fog/stratus dissipate with a return to VFR
conditions expected for the latter portion of the TAF period.
Winds will generally be light.

Extended discussion...

Thursday into Saturday, the high will shift to the east and the
region will be within southerly flow again. This pattern will have
the potential of advecting moisture back into the area. Showers and
storms will again be possible yielding areas of sub-VFR conditions.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS/WP
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...MBS/RCS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 282026
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
426 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front slowly moves across the region this evening through
tonight. Weak high pressure builds in from the north Wednesday and
Thursday as the front stalls across the Carolinas. The next cold
front approaches the region Friday, stalling along the coast into
the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Per latest radar trends, widespread showers have reached the
Tidewater into northeast North Carolina. Another line of light
showers observed into central Virginia. This activity is ahead of a
cold front currently pushing across the mountains. Aloft, the
associated upper level trough is digging over the Great Lakes into
the Ohio Valley. Expect the showers over the southeast forecast area
to push offshore late this afternoon into this evening. Attention
then turns to showers/thunderstorms developing along the front over
south central Pennsylvania into northwest Virginia. A clear sky over
the northwest local area has pushed temperatures into the upper 80`s
to near 90. A moist boundary layer thanks to dewpoints in the low
70`s has resulted in MLCAPE values of 1500 to 2000 J/kg per latest
SPC mesoanalysis. Deep layer shear remains marginal as the best
height falls are north of the local area. Hi-res guidance continues
to develop scattered showers and thunderstorms southward into the
northern Piedmont late this afternoon/early this evening ahead of
the front. Showers/thunderstorms then push eastward across the
northern area, extending as far southward as Richmond by mid-evening
as winds aloft increase. Gusty winds are not out of the question
with an inverted V sounding, but mid level winds remain rather light
(hence limited shear). Precipitable waters remain between 1.5 and
1.75 inches, so locally heavy rainfall is also possible. SPC
maintains its marginal risk across the northern half of the forecast
area. Expect the front to reach the coast by late tonight, with a
drying trend in its wake. Sky averages mostly clear inland to partly
cloudy near the coast late tonight. Lows generally in the mid to
upper 60`s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Embedded shortwave in cyclonic flow aloft pushes across the Ohio
Valley Wednesday. Tonight`s cold front stalls in the vicinity of
northeast North Carolina in westerly flow as high pressure builds in
from the northwest. Increasing winds aloft along with modest height
falls will interact with lingering mid level moisture for scattered
showers and thunderstorms across far southeast Virginia and
northeast North Carolina. Elsewhere, dry conditions expected as high
pressure builds over the mountains and dewpoints cool into the low
to mid 60`s. Seasonal daytime temps with highs in the mid to upper
80`s under a partly cloudy sky. Shortwave energy drops over the
local area Wednesday night as the frontal boundary remains over
northeast North Carolina. Retained slight chance to chance POPs far
southern VA and northeast North Carolina. Dry elsewhere. Lows in
the low to mid 60`s.

Quasi-stationary boundary remains in the vicinity of northeast North
Carolina Thursday. High pressure builds into the northern Mid-
Atlantic region early Thursday, before retreating back over the
Midwest Thursday afternoon as the next shortwave drops into the
Kentucky/Tennessee Valleys. Low pressure progged to develop over the
Gulf States Thursday with an inverted trough extending northward
into the central Appalachians. The frontal boundary along the
Southeast coast will begin to slowly lift northward. Still believe
course resolution models are overdone with precip across the local
area Thursday due to a lack of isentropic lift and appreciable
forcing. However, moisture return and elevated instability will be
enough for isolated to scattered diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms across the southwest half of the forecast area. Highs
Thursday in the mid 80`s. Will maintain slight chance POPs Thursday
night as the upstream shortwave pushes across the region in tandem
with increasing winds aloft. Lows in the mid to upper 60`s.

The next northern stream trough digs into the Great Lakes/New
England Friday. An associated cold front pushes into the Ohio Valley
late Friday. Meanwhile, the stubborn frontal boundary remains in the
vicinity of southeast Virginia/northeast North Carolina. Better
moisture return Friday in deep layer southwest flow will push
precipitable waters toward 1.5 to 1.75 inches. Dewpoints warm back
into the upper 60`s. Will keep mention of chance POPs Friday
afternoon for diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms. Highs in
the mid to upper 80`s under a partly cloudy sky.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
No major changes in forecast rationale made for the holiday weekend
into early next week. Active northern stream upper trough will
transition to a quasi-zonal w-nw flow aloft for the weekend into
early next week. Meanwhile, at the surface, a rather stagnant
pattern looks to set up. The aforementioned weak front/sfc trough
will linger over the local area, serving as the focus for mainly
diurnally driven showers and T-Storms Saturday and Sunday. Warm,
moist airmass (PW AOA 2" from through the weekend), in tandem with
the boundary and numerous disturbances riding across the area in
zonal flow aloft will bring a solid chance for mainly diurnally
driven showers and tstms, with locally heavy rainfall possible,
especially over the southern half of the area Saturday and Sunday.
Front eventually gets shunted SE of the local area by a next cool
front late in the weekend into early Monday, bringing some hope of
salvaging a mainly dry Independence Day across our area.

For temps, wet pattern favors temperatures hovering right around or
even just a bit below climo normal. Look for highs in the mid to
upper 80s across the area, a bit lower maxima in the low 80s along
the immediate coast. Early morning lows generally in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Numerous showers with some embedded thunder continue this aftn ahead
of a cold frnt approaching fm the w. Expect areas of mvfr/ifr with
the precip, with vfr elsewhere this aftn as several areas are drying
out. Continued vcsh thru this eveng as some rain is still psbl until
the frnt crosses the area Wed morng. Also prior to the fropa, some
low cigs/vsbys are psbl late tngt after today`s rain, especially
over kric and ksby. Vfr then for Wed aftn as the frnt drops thru the
area. There will then be chances for rain each day for the remainder
of the week, especially into the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Latest obs reflect sw flow (predominately sub-SCA ~10-15 kt) across
the waters this aftn. Pre-frontal trough continues to linger across
the area, as weak sfc cool front lingers west of the waters in the
interior Mid-Atlantic region, from C PA back into W VA. Some sct
Pre-frontal showers continue across the local area, and while some
stronger gusts are possible under the strongest storms, and can be
handled with Marine Wx Statements and warnings as needed, the
predominate conditions remain sub-SCA late afternoon and early this
evening.

Winds will lessen a bit tonight/overnight, as the (weak) cool
front and accompanying wind shift to the N-NE wind drops across
the waters. 1022+mb sfc high pressure pushes from the Great Lakes
toward the OH Valley on Wed, with low level surface wind flow
likely light enough to allow seabreeze interactions to dominate
nearshore. A general WNW flow takes over by later Wed evening/Wed
night, becoming ENE to E flow on Thu. The weak front/sfc trough
will meander over/just south of the area for the late week period,
and will serve as the focus for late day convection over the area
late in the week and through the weekend. A second, somewhat
stronger front will shunt the boundary south of the local area
late in the weekend into early next week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Chances to add to an already wet month through tonight. June has
been another wet month at Richmond, the monthly total rainfall
through the 27th stands at 6.92" and already makes this the 9th
wettest June on record (2004 is wettest June with 9.93").

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB/SAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...LKB/SAM
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAM
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281959
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
359 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front slowly moves across the region this evening through
tonight. Weak high pressure builds in from the north Wednesday and
Thursday as the front stalls across the Carolinas. The next cold
front approaches the region Friday, stalling along the coast into
the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Per latest radar trends, widespread showers have reached the
Tidewater into northeast North Carolina. Another line of light
showers observed into central Virginia. This activity is ahead of a
cold front currently pushing across the mountains. Aloft, the
associated upper level trough is digging over the Great Lakes into
the Ohio Valley. Expect the showers over the southeast forecast area
to push offshore late this afternoon into this evening. Attention
then turns to showers/thunderstorms developing along the front over
south central Pennsylvania into northwest Virginia. A clear sky over
the northwest local area has pushed temperatures into the upper 80`s
to near 90. A moist boundary layer thanks to dewpoints in the low
70`s has resulted in MLCAPE values of 1500 to 2000 J/kg per latest
SPC mesoanalysis. Deep layer shear remains marginal as the best
height falls are north of the local area. Hi-res guidance continues
to develop scattered showers and thunderstorms southward into the
northern Piedmont late this afternoon/early this evening ahead of
the front. Showers/thunderstorms then push eastward across the
northern area, extending as far southward as Richmond by mid-evening
as winds aloft increase. Gusty winds are not out of the question
with an inverted V sounding, but mid level winds remain rather light
(hence limited shear). Precipitable waters remain between 1.5 and
1.75 inches, so locally heavy rainfall is also possible. SPC
maintains its marginal risk across the northern half of the forecast
area. Expect the front to reach the coast by late tonight, with a
drying trend in its wake. Sky averages mostly clear inland to partly
cloudy near the coast late tonight. Lows generally in the mid to
upper 60`s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Embedded shortwave in cyclonic flow aloft pushes across the Ohio
Valley Wednesday. Tonight`s cold front stalls in the vicinity of
northeast North Carolina in westerly flow as high pressure builds in
from the northwest. Increasing winds aloft along with modest height
falls will interact with lingering mid level moisture for scattered
showers and thunderstorms across far southeast Virginia and
northeast North Carolina. Elsewhere, dry conditions expected as high
pressure builds over the mountains and dewpoints cool into the low
to mid 60`s. Seasonal daytime temps with highs in the mid to upper
80`s under a partly cloudy sky. Shortwave energy drops over the
local area Wednesday night as the frontal boundary remains over
northeast North Carolina. Retained slight chance to chance POPs far
southern VA and northeast North Carolina. Dry elsewhere. Lows in
the low to mid 60`s.

Quasi-stationary boundary remains in the vicinity of northeast North
Carolina Thursday. High pressure builds into the northern Mid-
Atlantic region early Thursday, before retreating back over the
Midwest Thursday afternoon as the next shortwave drops into the
Kentucky/Tennessee Valleys. Low pressure progged to develop over the
Gulf States Thursday with an inverted trough extending northward
into the central Appalachians. The frontal boundary along the
Southeast coast will begin to slowly lift northward. Still believe
course resolution models are overdone with precip across the local
area Thursday due to a lack of isentropic lift and appreciable
forcing. However, moisture return and elevated instability will be
enough for isolated to scattered diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms across the southwest half of the forecast area. Highs
Thursday in the mid 80`s. Will maintain slight chance POPs Thursday
night as the upstream shortwave pushes across the region in tandem
with increasing winds aloft. Lows in the mid to upper 60`s.

The next northern stream trough digs into the Great Lakes/New
England Friday. An associated cold front pushes into the Ohio Valley
late Friday. Meanwhile, the stubborn frontal boundary remains in the
vicinity of southeast Virginia/northeast North Carolina. Better
moisture return Friday in deep layer southwest flow will push
precipitable waters toward 1.5 to 1.75 inches. Dewpoints warm back
into the upper 60`s. Will keep mention of chance POPs Friday
afternoon for diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms. Highs in
the mid to upper 80`s under a partly cloudy sky.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
No major changes in forecast rationale made for the holiday weekend
into early next week. Active northern stream upper trough will
transition to a quasi-zonal w-nw flow aloft for the weekend into
early next week. Meanwhile, at the surface, a rather stagnant
pattern looks to set up. The aforementioned weak front/sfc trough
will linger over the local area, serving as the focus for mainly
diurnally driven showers and T-Storms Saturday and Sunday. Warm,
moist airmass (PW AOA 2" from through the weekend), in tandem with
the boundary and numerous disturbances riding across the area in
zonal flow aloft will bring a solid chance for mainly diurnally
driven showers and tstms, with locally heavy rainfall possible,
especially over the southern half of the area Saturday and Sunday.
Front eventually gets shunted SE of the local area by a next cool
front late in the weekend into early Monday, bringing some hope of
salvaging a mainly dry Independence Day across our area.

For temps, wet pattern favors temperatures hovering right around or
even just a bit below climo normal. Look for highs in the mid to
upper 80s across the area, a bit lower maxima in the low 80s along
the immediate coast. Early morning lows generally in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Numerous showers with some embedded thunder continue this aftn ahead
of a cold frnt approaching fm the w. Expect areas of mvfr/ifr with
the precip, with vfr elsewhere this aftn as several areas are drying
out. Continued vcsh thru this eveng as some rain is still psbl until
the frnt crosses the area Wed morng. Also prior to the fropa, some
low cigs/vsbys are psbl late tngt after today`s rain, especially
over kric and ksby. Vfr then for Wed aftn as the frnt drops thru the
area. There will then be chances for rain each day for the remainder
of the week, especially into the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Latest obs reflect sw flow (predominately sub-SCA ~10-15 kt) across
the waters this aftn. Pre-frontal trough continues to linger across
the area, as weak sfc cool front lingers west of the waters in the
interior Mid-Atlantic region, from C PA back into W VA. Some sct
Pre-frontal showers continue across the local area, and while some
stronger gusts are possible under the strongest storms, and can be
handled with Marine Wx Statements and warnings as needed, the
predominate conditions remain sub-SCA late afternoon and early this
evening.

Winds will lessen a bit after midnight tngt, as the (weak) cool
front approaches from the WNW. The front and accompanying wind shift
to the N-NE wind drops across the waters Wed morning into Wed
afternoon, as 1022+mb high pressure pushes from the Great Lakes
toward the OH Valley. SFC wind flow will be light enough Wed that
seabreeze interactions will dominate nearshore, with a general WNW
flow Wed night becoming ENE to E flow on Thu. The weak front/sfc
trough will meander over/just south of the area for the late week
period, and will serve as the focus for late day convection over the
area late in the week and through the weekend. A second, somewhat
stronger front will shunt the boundary south of the local area late
in the weekend into early next week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Chances to add to an already wet month mainly today and tonight.
June has been another wet month at Richmond, the monthly total
rainfall through the 24th stands at 6.92" and already makes this
the 9th wettest June on record (2004 is wettest June with 9.93").

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB/SAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...LKB/SAM
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAM
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KRNK 281931
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
331 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through the region tonight and bring a most
welcome break of fair weather to the region for midweek. However, a
chance of showers and thunderstorm will return to the forecast as we
get to the latter portion of the work week, and our weather will become
increasingly unsettled with increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Tuesday...

The cold front is making slow but steady progress across the forecast
area and the bulk of precipitation is now east of the region, with just
a few lingering sprinkles across the piedmont. Will keep some very low
POPs out east into this evening for any stray showers that do manage to
tap into a lingering pool of instability ahead of the front but we look
to be dry for the overnight period. With high soil moisture and
expected light wind/clearing skies early tonight patchy fog is a good
bet especially in the valleys. Lows tonight will be right around normal
for this time of year with readings in the mid/upper 50s west of the
Blue Ridge and mid/upper 60s to the east.

After fog/stratus dissipate Wednesday morning we should be in for a
decent day with high temperatures in the mid/upper 80s east to
mid/upper 70s west. However, the cold front that moves through tonight
will be stalling out just to our south and will start pushing back to
the north by late Wednesday. This will start pushing some showers back
toward northwest North Carolina by late in the day but it currently
looks like we will get through the day dry. Will include some very low
POPs in the grids to cover the situation and show the trend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM EDT Tuesday...

Wednesday evening, the departing energy from an upper level
disturbance will allow for the potential for some isolated to
scattered showers and storms across the far southeast portion of the
forecast region. This features is expected to exit the region by
midnight, and with it and remaining shower activity.

High pressure will build into the Upper Ohio Valley with its
influence experience across mainly northern portions of the forecast
area. Concurrently, low pressure will move eastward along the coast
of the Gulf of Mexico. Moisture will start to advect northward along
the east side of this low and enter our region gradually Thursday.
Precipitation chances will increase from south to north with the
best chances across Southside Virginia and neighboring north central
North Carolina by the afternoon.

This pattern will continue into Friday with the focus for
precipitation across primarily the eastern portion of the region. A
small shift eastward in the axis of this precipitation will take
place as high pres an upper level trough moves through the Great
Lakes region. sure begins to nose south into western parts of the
area. By late Friday night, dry weather is expected.

Temperatures during this portion of the forecast will trend slightly
milder each day and be a few degrees within normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Tuesday...

Low pressure will deepen over northern Texas, and a warm front will
start to develop eastward into the Gulf Coast states. This front
will lift north into our region by Sunday and stall overhead through
early next week. This scenario will set the stage for a return to a
wet pattern. The low over texas will track eastward along the front
and provide increasing dynamics for the potential for heavy rain for
the end of the weekend into early next week.

High temperatures during the period will trend cooler while the low
temperatures will trend higher. By Monday of next week, high
temperatures will be slightly below normal and low will be slightly
above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Tuesday...

A slow moving cold front is on our western doorstep and will be
moving across the TAF sites early this period. However, the best
support for convective precipitation has shifted east and current
radar shows very sparse returns east of the Blue Ridge. Will just
use VCSH to cover any stray showers that manage to develop just
ahead of the front at KLYH and KDAN but maintain a dry forecast at
other sites. GOES rapid scan visible satellite imagery and surface
obs indicate cloud height is generally VFR with cigs of mainly a
mid deck. There is some Cu developing upstream and this may be a
SCT/V/BKN situation from the Blue Ridge west, but will maintain
VFR conditions through the first part of the period. However, early
tonight winds will slacken and ambient moisture is sufficient to
generate at least tempo IFR stratus/fog at most sites. Wednesday
morning will see fog/stratus dissipate with a return to VFR
conditions expected for the latter portion of the TAF period.
Winds will generally be light.

Extended discussion...

Thursday into Saturday, the high will shift to the east and the
region will be within southerly flow again. This pattern will have
the potential of advecting moisture back into the area. Showers and
storms will again be possible yielding areas of sub-VFR conditions.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...MBS/RCS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281913
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
313 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front approaches from the west today, as a pre-frontal
trough remains over the local area. The front will slowly move
across the region late this afternoon through tonight. Weak high
pressure builds in from the north Wednesday and Thursday as the
front stalls across the Carolinas. The next cold front approaches
the region late in the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Latest surface analysis places the upstream cold front over the Ohio
River with a pre-frontal trough over central Virginia. Aloft, GOES
water vapor imagery and RAOB plots indicate shortwave energy over
West Virginia/western Virginia. Water vapor imagery also depicts a
deep plume of moisture streaming northeastward from the Gulf of
Mexico. Precipitable waters have climbed to over 2 inches across the
region, which is +2 standard deviations. Pre-frontal showers are
expanding in coverage late this morning as the upper wave approaches
from the west. This matches up well with inherited likely POPs, so
no changes made to near term POP forecast other than to increase
the Maryland Eastern Shore to categorical. Locally heavy rainfall
still expected. Rainfall amounts in excess of 2 inches have been
observed over the Maryland Eastern Shore. Temperatures also on
track. Only other change made was to time POP`s late today through
this evening. Confidence is increasing that a line of scattered
showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of the cold front
over the Piedmont late today, even as dry air begins to work in
from the west. Some clearing is expected with MLCAPE values
progged to increase to 1,000 to 1,500 J/kg over the Piedmont this
afternoon. Deep layer shear remains marginal as strongest height
falls remain north of the region. Gusty winds are possible under
the strongest storms. SPC maintains only a marginal risk for
severe weather.


Previous Discussion...
Current analysis depicts low pressure over eastern Canada, with a
surface cold front extending SW through western NY and into the
Ohio Valley. A pre-frontal sfc trough is in place along/just E of
The Appalachians. Ongoing widespread shower with embedded tstm
activity over the Ches Bay and eastern Shore, with coverage more
isolated to widely scattered across central and south central VA
(with dry conditions over far se VA and ne NC). GFS/NAM reveal
that although CAPE is very limited, elevated instability per
negative showalter indices over much of the area has been
sufficient when combined with decent lift to keep showers going
along with a few tstms. Activity off to the W/SW of metro richmond
likely to increase in coverage over the next few hrs and will
carry likely POPS of 60-70% from the eastern shore back W/SW
through cent ral and south central VA through the morning, tapered
to only low chc POPS over the far SE through mid morning. However,
expect highest coverage of precip to gradually shift E/SE through
the late morning/early aftn hrs, with likely POPS overspreading se
VA and ne NC by late morning through much of the aftn. Meanwhile,
some breaks in the clouds are expected over central VA as POPS
decrease somewhat by mid aftn onward. If enough clearing occurs
this aftn, could see some marginally strong tstms develop, mainly
W of ches Bay and SPC has this approximate area in a marginal risk
for severe tstms. Still, greater effective shear of 30 Kt+ should
stay N of the entire area closer to stronger h5 height falls since
the upper low will be well to our north across Ontario. Given the
continued moist airmass with precipitable waters around 2.00" and
relatively weak steering flow aloft (at least through 18Z) locally
heavy rain will be the main concern and will address in the HWO.
Highs generally in the low-mid 80s today (possibly staying in
upper 70s/around 80 depending on rain coverage through the aftn).

Upper low tracks from NY state to New England later tonight, a
slightly slower secenario compared to past model runs. Still
expect the cold front to push through the local area, though the
front may hang up near the coast. Height falls will result in
cyclogenesis just off the Northeast coast Tuesday night. As the
low wraps up, lingering mid level moisture across the northeast
forecast area in concert with strengthening forcing for ascent is
expected to produce scattered showers Tuesday evening. Best
chances will be from the Northern Neck to the Eastern Shore.
Drying late Tuesday night with a clearing sky inland. Partly-
mostly cloudy near the coast. Lows range from the mid to upper
60`s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Broad, upper level trough pushes across the region Wednesday. The
frontal boundary expected to stall in the vicinity of northeast
North Carolina as high pressure builds in from the northwest.
Departing 70+ knot upper jet and enough lingering mid level
moisture (precipitable waters drop below 1.5 inches) should be
enough for widely scattered diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms, mainly over far southern VA and ne NC. Highs
generally in the mid 80`s under a partly cloudy sky. Best chances
for measurable precipitation will be south of the Albemarle Sound
Wednesday night, but will keep mention of slight chance showers.
Lows generally in the low to mid 60`s N to upper 60s S.

Surface high pressure centers along the Mid-Atlantic coast
Thursday morning as the next upper level shortwave approaches
from the west. Low pressure progged to develop over the Southeast
states with an inverted trough extending northward over the
central Appalachians. Upslope flow and the approaching wave will
result in showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain. GFS
is wettest model and would support high chc POPS into the CWA
while the NAm/GEM are drier. Expect much of the forecast area to
remain dry, but will mention a 20-30% POP for showers coming off
the higher terrain Thursday afternoon into areas W of the Bay.
Otherwise, near seasonal temps again with highs forecast in the
mid 80`s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Active northern stream upper trough will remain the dominant wx
feature through the medium range period. Resultant W-NW flow will
continue for the late week/Holiday weekend period.

Meanwhile, at the surface, a rather stagnant pattern looks to set up
with weak front/sfc trough dropping into the area and lingering over
the local area. Warm, moist airmass (PW AOA 2" from Friday night
through the weekend)  in tandem with the  boundary and numerous
disturbances riding across the area in WNW flow aloft will bring a
solid chance for mainly diurnally driven showers and tstms. Have
continued solid chance pops each day during this period.
Stronger front crosses the area by later Sunday into Monday.

For temps, pattern favors temperatures hovering right around climo
normal...with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Early morning lows
generally in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Numerous showers with some embedded thunder continue this aftn ahead
of a cold frnt approaching fm the w. Expect areas of mvfr/ifr with
the precip, with vfr elsewhere this aftn as several areas are drying
out. Continued vcsh thru this eveng as some rain is still psbl until
the frnt crosses the area Wed morng. Also prior to the fropa, some
low cigs/vsbys are psbl late tngt after today`s rain, especially
over kric and ksby. Vfr then for Wed aftn as the frnt drops thru the
area. There will then be chances for rain each day for the remainder
of the week, especially into the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Early this morning, SSW winds were mainly 5 to 15 kt acrs the
waters, and will remain at those speeds today into tngt, as a
pre-frntl trof lingers ovr the area and then the cold front
approaches fm the WNW. The front and accompanying wind shift to
the N-NE drops through the waters Wed morning into Wed aftn with
high pres pushing into the Great Lakes and OH Valley. This will
maintain a NE to E flow later Wed and Thu. Weak front/sfc trough
will meander over/just south of the area for the late week period,
and will serve as the focus for late day convection over the
region late in the week and through the weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Chances to add to an already wet month mainly tonight and Tue. June
has been another wet month at Richmond, the monthly total rainfall
through the 24th stands at 6.92" and already makes this the 9th
wettest June on record (2004 is wettest June with 9.93").

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/SAM
SHORT TERM...LKB/SAM
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...TMG
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KLWX 281900
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
300 PM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push through the area this evening and stall to
the south by Wednesday morning. High pressure will build in the
wake of the front. The next cold front crosses the area Saturday,
stalling over the southern Mid-Atlantic Sunday and eventually
pushing south Monday as high pressure builds in from the north.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Persistent cloud cover associated with surface trough/theta-e
ridge is eroding from the west. A cold front is crossing the
Appalachians, with convection firing out ahead of it. Southerly
flow is only present in the low levels, and the best shortwave
energy will be across PA, so expect decreasing coverage with
southern extent. MLCAPE ahead of the line is around 1500 J/kg with
bulk shear of 25-30 kt. The lingering cloud cover and weak mid-
level lapse rates (in addition to the weak forcing) will be
limiting factors to updraft development, but a moisture-rich
environment exists east of the mountains, and some organized
clusters may be able to form and present a gusty wind threat. The
setup in addition to hi-res guidance suggests this is most likely
east of the Blue Ridge and across the metros into southern MD late
this afternoon into this evening.

An axis of higher PWATs around 1.75 inches will be located across
eastern areas. Combined with storm motions which could be around
20 kt or less, stronger/slow moving thunderstorm clusters could
produce locally heavy rain and possible urban flooding in normally
vulnerable areas. Isolated flash flooding cannot be ruled out, but
am not expecting widespread issues given 1-hr FFG values are
generally well above 2 inches outside of the urban areas. Will
relegate this to an HWO mention given marginal threat.

The showers and thunderstorms will likely be exiting the area
around midnight, but could persist a little longer in southern MD.
Some patchy fog could occur depending on how quickly drier air
moves in, but did not feel confident enough to put it in the
forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The front should push far enough south on Wednesday and Wednesday
night that dry weather will prevail across the forecast area,
although there may be some clouds at times given mid-level
troughing. Temperatures and humidity will be a notch lower.

The boundary will return back north on Thursday and Thursday night
as the high moves to the east. GFS continues to be the wettest
model on Thursday, but there will be a return southerly flow, so
will keep small POPs over southern parts of the CWA. Temperatures
and humidity will creep back upward.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An upper trough of low pressure and associated cold front at the
surface will move across the region Friday and Friday night. The
chance for showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front. The
timing and placement of precipitation development is uncertain at
this time, but given bulk shear around 30 kt, a few stronger
storms could occur.

Unsettled conditions could linger through much of the weekend as the
associated surface cold front lingers just to our south. Additional
showers and thunderstorms could develop along this front Saturday
through Sunday night.

The next storm system will develop along the front at the western
end of the Ohio Valley Sunday night into Monday as the stalled front
starts tracking northward as a warm front. The threat for showers
and thunderstorms will be concentrated across central and southern
Virginia by the end of the weekend.

This shower and thunderstorm threat will then propagate north toward
the Mason-Dixon line as the newly-formed storm system moves parallel
to the Ohio Valley Monday through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Main concern for the late afternoon and evening hours will be
thunderstorms along a cold front. Clusters of storms may organize
by the time they reach the Balt/Wash metro, and have thus included
a TSRA mention at these terminals. However, there could be gaps in
between storms with little impact. Brief gusty winds and heavy
rain will be possible. Wind shift to NW will occur late this
evening.

A cold front will cross tonight. Depending on how quickly drier
air arrives, there could be some fog, but did not feel confident
enough to put in the TAFs. VFR in high pressure Wednesday and
Wednesday night. Front returns north Thursday and Thursday night,
although the probability of precipitation is low.

MVFR or IFR conditions possible at times Friday through the
weekend with showers and thunderstorms. Winds southwest to west 5
to 10 knots Friday and Friday night.

&&

.MARINE...
S to SE flow until late this evening overnight when a cold front
passes. There may be a brief window near frontal passage where
winds could approach SCA levels. However, 15 kt or less expected
outside thunderstorms, which will be crossing the waters this
evening. SMWs are possible. Front pushes south Wednesday and
returns north late this week, with a cold front being slow to push
into the area this weekend. In general, sub-SCA conditions
expected.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADS
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...ADS/KLW
MARINE...ADS/KLW




000
FXUS61 KRNK 281746
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
146 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move across the region this afternoon and
evening, finally allowing high pressure to build with improving
conditions for the middle of the week. However, as the center of
high shifts to our east, it will allow moisture to surge back into
the region, with showers and thunderstorms returning to the
forecast through the latter portion of the workweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 945 AM EDT Tuesday...

Approaching cold front is still a ways off to the northwest across
central WV. Mainly light precipitation is occurring out ahead of
the front across the region, but instability is starting to build
across the piedmont. Expect current light precipitation to continue
moving east across the region followed by some redevelopment of
convective precipitation as we get into the afternoon hours. The
dynamic environment remains weak and the threat for severe weather
remains quite marginal and will be confined to far
eastern/northeastern locations of the piedmont, with the bulk of
activity remaining further to the east and out of out area.

Previous discussion...

Front current in the Ohio Valley, will track across the region
today. Low level flow is backing as a short wave rides along this
front. Through the day today, showers will be more focused
towards the stalled boundary/lee trough over the piedmont. By this
evening, the front and associated convection will move east into
the coastal piedmont. There is a marginal risk for strong
thunderstorms to develop this afternoon over the piedmont.
However, the more widespread activity should occur east of Route
15 (Keysville- Farmville). Between Route 29 and 15, an isolated
strong to severe storm is possible this afternoon.

Heading into the afternoon, conditions will become less humid for
the mountains as drier air filters in behind the second front.
High temperatures in the west will range from the upper 70s to the
low 80s. Temperatures will warm into the mid 80s east of the Blue
Ridge.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM EDT Tuesday...

The upper trough will pivot northeast in Thursday, as high
pressure builds southeast out of the Ohio valley. The cold front
will push well south of our area but a wave of low pressure will
stalled it across the Southeast States. The challenge in the
forecast is that the drier air associated with high pressure
entering the area will remain shallow, allowing somewhat more
unstable to remain just off the surface. As a result, isolated to
scattered showers are possible across northern North Carolina and
extreme southern Virginia on Wednesday afternoon and evening as a
weak upper level disturbance pushes across the Southeast. High
temperatures on Wednesday will range from the mid 60s in the
northwest mountains to the upper 80s in the piedmont. Any
convection which develops across southern portions of the forecast
area will quickly diminish Wednesday evening. Under partly cloudy
skies and light winds, patchy fog will form overnight especially
in the western valleys. Low temperatures Wednesday night will drop
into the lower 50s in the west to the mid 60s in the east.

High pressure over the Ohio Valley will weaken on Thursday as it
slides southeast, allowing winds to shift more south to
southeasterly. This will advect deeper moisture into the Piedmont
which will combined with strong afternoon heating to generate
scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and
evening. The best chance of thunderstorms will be along and east
of the Blue Ridge. SPC in Day 3 convective outlook has placed a
marginal risk of severe storms to our southeast across the
Carolinas with main threat damaging winds. In addition, slow
movement of cells within a moist atmosphere will be capable of
producing heavy rain. High temperatures on Thursday will range
from the lower 70s in the mountains to the mid 80s in the
piedmont. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will taper off
Thursday evening into Thursday night. Low temperatures Thursday
night into Friday morning will drop into the mid 50s in the
mountains to the mid 60s in the piedmont.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 339 PM EDT Monday...

Spotty, hit and miss showers and thunderstorms will remain in the
forecast for Friday afternoon and early evening, with convection
waning after sunset with the loss of daytime heating. Friday will
also mark the beginning of a warming trend as warmer air pools
ahead of a cold front approaching from the north.

Showers and thunderstorms will be more widespread on Saturday as
the cold front sinks south of the Ohio River toward the central
Appalachians/mid-Atlantic. While still plenty of time for the
scenario to change, believe the pattern is setting up for
scattered thunderstorms to develop during early afternoon across
the mountains, with cells then solidifying into a broken line
during the evening as they pass across the Piedmont. Weather
forecast models indicate sufficient instability for a few of the
storms to become severe and precipitable water values in the
ballpark of 1.5 to nearly 2 inches support the possibility of
locally heavy rain.

The cold front will sink into northern North Carolina late
Saturday night into early Sunday, maintaining increased chances of
showers and thunderstorms across the forecast area. Believe the
severe thunderstorm threat will be significantly diminished due to
widespread cloud cover, however believe the threat of locally
heavy rain will remain, more so for locations south of Highway
460.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Tuesday...

A slow moving cold front is on our western doorstep and will be
moving across the TAF sites early this period. However, the best
support for convective precipitation has shifted east and current
radar shows very sparse returns east of the Blue Ridge. Will just
use VCSH to cover any stray showers that manage to develop just
ahead of the front at KLYH and KDAN but maintain a dry forecast at
other sites. GOES rapid scan visible satellite imagery and surface
obs indicate cloud height is generally VFR with cigs of mainly a
mid deck. There is some Cu developing upstream and this may be a
SCT/V/BKN situation from the Blue Ridge west, but will maintain
VFR conditions through the first part of the period. However, early
tonight winds will slacken and ambient moisture is sufficient to
generate at least tempo IFR stratus/fog at most sites. Wednesday
morning will see fog/stratus dissipate with a return to VFR
conditions expected for the latter portion of the TAF period.
Winds will generally be light.

Extended discussion...

Thursday into Saturday, the high will shift to the east and the
region will be within southerly flow again. This pattern will have
the potential of advecting moisture back into the area. Showers and
storms will again be possible yielding areas of sub-VFR conditions.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...MBS/RCS
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...MBS/RCS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281505
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1105 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front approaches from the west today, as a pre-frontal
trough remains over the local area. The front will slowly move
across the region late this afternoon through tonight. Weak high
pressure builds in from the north Wednesday and Thursday as the
front stalls across the Carolinas. The next cold front approaches
the region late in the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Latest surface analysis places the upstream cold front over the Ohio
River with a pre-frontal trough over central Virginia. Aloft, GOES
water vapor imagery and RAOB plots indicate shortwave energy over
West Virginia/western Virginia. Water vapor imagery also depicts a
deep plume of moisture streaming northeastward from the Gulf of
Mexico. Precipitable waters have climbed to over 2 inches across the
region, which is +2 standard deviations. Pre-frontal showers are
expanding in coverage late this morning as the upper wave approaches
from the west. This matches up well with inherited likely POPs, so
no changes made to near term POP forecast other than to increase
the Maryland Eastern Shore to categorical. Locally heavy rainfall
still expected. Rainfall amounts in excess of 2 inches have been
observed over the Maryland Eastern Shore. Temperatures also on
track. Only other change made was to time POP`s late today through
this evening. Confidence is increasing that a line of scattered
showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of the cold front
over the Piedmont late today, even as dry air begins to work in
from the west. Some clearing is expected with MLCAPE values
progged to increase to 1,000 to 1,500 J/kg over the Piedmont this
afternoon. Deep layer shear remains marginal as strongest height
falls remain north of the region. Gusty winds are possible under
the strongest storms. SPC maintains only a marginal risk for
severe weather.


Previous Discussion...
Current analysis depicts low pressure over eastern Canada, with a
surface cold front extending SW through western NY and into the
Ohio Valley. A pre-frontal sfc trough is in place along/just E of
The Appalachians. Ongoing widespread shower with embedded tstm
activity over the Ches Bay and eastern Shore, with coverage more
isolated to widely scattered across central and south central VA
(with dry conditions over far se VA and ne NC). GFS/NAM reveal
that although CAPE is very limited, elevated instability per
negative showalter indices over much of the area has been
sufficient when combined with decent lift to keep showers going
along with a few tstms. Activity off to the W/SW of metro richmond
likely to increase in coverage over the next few hrs and will
carry likely POPS of 60-70% from the eastern shore back W/SW
through cent ral and south central VA through the morning, tapered
to only low chc POPS over the far SE through mid morning. However,
expect highest coverage of precip to gradually shift E/SE through
the late morning/early aftn hrs, with likely POPS overspreading se
VA and ne NC by late morning through much of the aftn. Meanwhile,
some breaks in the clouds are expected over central VA as POPS
decrease somewhat by mid aftn onward. If enough clearing occurs
this aftn, could see some marginally strong tstms develop, mainly
W of ches Bay and SPC has this approximate area in a marginal risk
for severe tstms. Still, greater effective shear of 30 Kt+ should
stay N of the entire area closer to stronger h5 height falls since
the upper low will be well to our north across Ontario. Given the
continued moist airmass with precipitable waters around 2.00" and
relatively weak steering flow aloft (at least through 18Z) locally
heavy rain will be the main concern and will address in the HWO.
Highs generally in the low-mid 80s today (possibly staying in
upper 70s/around 80 depending on rain coverage through the aftn).

Upper low tracks from NY state to New England later tonight, a
slightly slower secenario compared to past model runs. Still
expect the cold front to push through the local area, though the
front may hang up near the coast. Height falls will result in
cyclogenesis just off the Northeast coast Tuesday night. As the
low wraps up, lingering mid level moisture across the northeast
forecast area in concert with strengthening forcing for ascent is
expected to produce scattered showers Tuesday evening. Best
chances will be from the Northern Neck to the Eastern Shore.
Drying late Tuesday night with a clearing sky inland. Partly-
mostly cloudy near the coast. Lows range from the mid to upper
60`s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Broad, upper level trough pushes across the region Wednesday. The
frontal boundary expected to stall in the vicinity of northeast
North Carolina as high pressure builds in from the northwest.
Departing 70+ knot upper jet and enough lingering mid level
moisture (precipitable waters drop below 1.5 inches) should be
enough for widely scattered diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms, mainly over far southern VA and ne NC. Highs
generally in the mid 80`s under a partly cloudy sky. Best chances
for measurable precipitation will be south of the Albemarle Sound
Wednesday night, but will keep mention of slight chance showers.
Lows generally in the low to mid 60`s N to upper 60s S.

Surface high pressure centers along the Mid-Atlantic coast
Thursday morning as the next upper level shortwave approaches
from the west. Low pressure progged to develop over the Southeast
states with an inverted trough extending northward over the
central Appalachians. Upslope flow and the approaching wave will
result in showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain. GFS
is wettest model and would support high chc POPS into the CWA
while the NAm/GEM are drier. Expect much of the forecast area to
remain dry, but will mention a 20-30% POP for showers coming off
the higher terrain Thursday afternoon into areas W of the Bay.
Otherwise, near seasonal temps again with highs forecast in the
mid 80`s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Active northern stream upper trough will remain the dominant wx
feature through the medium range period. Resultant W-NW flow will
continue for the late week/Holiday weekend period.

Meanwhile, at the surface, a rather stagnant pattern looks to set up
with weak front/sfc trough dropping into the area and lingering over
the local area. Warm, moist airmass (PW AOA 2" from Friday night
through the weekend)  in tandem with the  boundary and numerous
disturbances riding across the area in WNW flow aloft will bring a
solid chance for mainly diurnally driven showers and tstms. Have
continued solid chance pops each day during this period.
Stronger front crosses the area by later Sunday into Monday.

For temps, pattern favors temperatures hovering right around climo
normal...with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Early morning lows
generally in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Early this morning, a cold front was dropping thru the Ohio
valley. The front will move southeast and pass acrs the Mid Atlc
States tonight into Wed morning. An upper level disturbance and
surface trough will produce sctd showers and tstms today into
this evening, with additional sctd pcpn possible with the front
tonight. Conditions are expected to generally be MVFR with the
weather, but a few hours of IFR will be possible at RIC and SBY.
Winds will be light and generally fm the south.

OUTLOOK...Expect mainly dry/VFR conditions for Wed and Thu, as
high pres nudges in fm the WNW. More chances for pcpn return next
weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Early this morning, SSW winds were mainly 5 to 15 kt acrs the
waters, and will remain at those speeds today into tngt, as a
pre-frntl trof lingers ovr the area and then the cold front
approaches fm the WNW. The front and accompanying wind shift to
the N-NE drops through the waters Wed morning into Wed aftn with
high pres pushing into the Great Lakes and OH Valley. This will
maintain a NE to E flow later Wed and Thu. Weak front/sfc trough
will meander over/just south of the area for the late week period,
and will serve as the focus for late day convection over the
region late in the week and through the weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Chances to add to an already wet month mainly tonight and Tue. June
has been another wet month at Richmond, the monthly total rainfall
through the 24th stands at 6.92" and already makes this the 9th
wettest June on record (2004 is wettest June with 9.93").

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/SAM
SHORT TERM...LKB/SAM
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281505
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1105 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front approaches from the west today, as a pre-frontal
trough remains over the local area. The front will slowly move
across the region late this afternoon through tonight. Weak high
pressure builds in from the north Wednesday and Thursday as the
front stalls across the Carolinas. The next cold front approaches
the region late in the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Latest surface analysis places the upstream cold front over the Ohio
River with a pre-frontal trough over central Virginia. Aloft, GOES
water vapor imagery and RAOB plots indicate shortwave energy over
West Virginia/western Virginia. Water vapor imagery also depicts a
deep plume of moisture streaming northeastward from the Gulf of
Mexico. Precipitable waters have climbed to over 2 inches across the
region, which is +2 standard deviations. Pre-frontal showers are
expanding in coverage late this morning as the upper wave approaches
from the west. This matches up well with inherited likely POPs, so
no changes made to near term POP forecast other than to increase
the Maryland Eastern Shore to categorical. Locally heavy rainfall
still expected. Rainfall amounts in excess of 2 inches have been
observed over the Maryland Eastern Shore. Temperatures also on
track. Only other change made was to time POP`s late today through
this evening. Confidence is increasing that a line of scattered
showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of the cold front
over the Piedmont late today, even as dry air begins to work in
from the west. Some clearing is expected with MLCAPE values
progged to increase to 1,000 to 1,500 J/kg over the Piedmont this
afternoon. Deep layer shear remains marginal as strongest height
falls remain north of the region. Gusty winds are possible under
the strongest storms. SPC maintains only a marginal risk for
severe weather.


Previous Discussion...
Current analysis depicts low pressure over eastern Canada, with a
surface cold front extending SW through western NY and into the
Ohio Valley. A pre-frontal sfc trough is in place along/just E of
The Appalachians. Ongoing widespread shower with embedded tstm
activity over the Ches Bay and eastern Shore, with coverage more
isolated to widely scattered across central and south central VA
(with dry conditions over far se VA and ne NC). GFS/NAM reveal
that although CAPE is very limited, elevated instability per
negative showalter indices over much of the area has been
sufficient when combined with decent lift to keep showers going
along with a few tstms. Activity off to the W/SW of metro richmond
likely to increase in coverage over the next few hrs and will
carry likely POPS of 60-70% from the eastern shore back W/SW
through cent ral and south central VA through the morning, tapered
to only low chc POPS over the far SE through mid morning. However,
expect highest coverage of precip to gradually shift E/SE through
the late morning/early aftn hrs, with likely POPS overspreading se
VA and ne NC by late morning through much of the aftn. Meanwhile,
some breaks in the clouds are expected over central VA as POPS
decrease somewhat by mid aftn onward. If enough clearing occurs
this aftn, could see some marginally strong tstms develop, mainly
W of ches Bay and SPC has this approximate area in a marginal risk
for severe tstms. Still, greater effective shear of 30 Kt+ should
stay N of the entire area closer to stronger h5 height falls since
the upper low will be well to our north across Ontario. Given the
continued moist airmass with precipitable waters around 2.00" and
relatively weak steering flow aloft (at least through 18Z) locally
heavy rain will be the main concern and will address in the HWO.
Highs generally in the low-mid 80s today (possibly staying in
upper 70s/around 80 depending on rain coverage through the aftn).

Upper low tracks from NY state to New England later tonight, a
slightly slower secenario compared to past model runs. Still
expect the cold front to push through the local area, though the
front may hang up near the coast. Height falls will result in
cyclogenesis just off the Northeast coast Tuesday night. As the
low wraps up, lingering mid level moisture across the northeast
forecast area in concert with strengthening forcing for ascent is
expected to produce scattered showers Tuesday evening. Best
chances will be from the Northern Neck to the Eastern Shore.
Drying late Tuesday night with a clearing sky inland. Partly-
mostly cloudy near the coast. Lows range from the mid to upper
60`s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Broad, upper level trough pushes across the region Wednesday. The
frontal boundary expected to stall in the vicinity of northeast
North Carolina as high pressure builds in from the northwest.
Departing 70+ knot upper jet and enough lingering mid level
moisture (precipitable waters drop below 1.5 inches) should be
enough for widely scattered diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms, mainly over far southern VA and ne NC. Highs
generally in the mid 80`s under a partly cloudy sky. Best chances
for measurable precipitation will be south of the Albemarle Sound
Wednesday night, but will keep mention of slight chance showers.
Lows generally in the low to mid 60`s N to upper 60s S.

Surface high pressure centers along the Mid-Atlantic coast
Thursday morning as the next upper level shortwave approaches
from the west. Low pressure progged to develop over the Southeast
states with an inverted trough extending northward over the
central Appalachians. Upslope flow and the approaching wave will
result in showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain. GFS
is wettest model and would support high chc POPS into the CWA
while the NAm/GEM are drier. Expect much of the forecast area to
remain dry, but will mention a 20-30% POP for showers coming off
the higher terrain Thursday afternoon into areas W of the Bay.
Otherwise, near seasonal temps again with highs forecast in the
mid 80`s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Active northern stream upper trough will remain the dominant wx
feature through the medium range period. Resultant W-NW flow will
continue for the late week/Holiday weekend period.

Meanwhile, at the surface, a rather stagnant pattern looks to set up
with weak front/sfc trough dropping into the area and lingering over
the local area. Warm, moist airmass (PW AOA 2" from Friday night
through the weekend)  in tandem with the  boundary and numerous
disturbances riding across the area in WNW flow aloft will bring a
solid chance for mainly diurnally driven showers and tstms. Have
continued solid chance pops each day during this period.
Stronger front crosses the area by later Sunday into Monday.

For temps, pattern favors temperatures hovering right around climo
normal...with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Early morning lows
generally in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Early this morning, a cold front was dropping thru the Ohio
valley. The front will move southeast and pass acrs the Mid Atlc
States tonight into Wed morning. An upper level disturbance and
surface trough will produce sctd showers and tstms today into
this evening, with additional sctd pcpn possible with the front
tonight. Conditions are expected to generally be MVFR with the
weather, but a few hours of IFR will be possible at RIC and SBY.
Winds will be light and generally fm the south.

OUTLOOK...Expect mainly dry/VFR conditions for Wed and Thu, as
high pres nudges in fm the WNW. More chances for pcpn return next
weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Early this morning, SSW winds were mainly 5 to 15 kt acrs the
waters, and will remain at those speeds today into tngt, as a
pre-frntl trof lingers ovr the area and then the cold front
approaches fm the WNW. The front and accompanying wind shift to
the N-NE drops through the waters Wed morning into Wed aftn with
high pres pushing into the Great Lakes and OH Valley. This will
maintain a NE to E flow later Wed and Thu. Weak front/sfc trough
will meander over/just south of the area for the late week period,
and will serve as the focus for late day convection over the
region late in the week and through the weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Chances to add to an already wet month mainly tonight and Tue. June
has been another wet month at Richmond, the monthly total rainfall
through the 24th stands at 6.92" and already makes this the 9th
wettest June on record (2004 is wettest June with 9.93").

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/SAM
SHORT TERM...LKB/SAM
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KLWX 281359
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
959 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A surface trough lingers over the region today with a cold front
swinging through later today before stalling to the south. High
pressure will build in the wake of the front. The next cold front
crosses the area Saturday, stalling over the southern Mid-
Atlantic Sunday and eventually pushes south Monday as high
pressure builds in from the north.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Surface trough and elevated instability are causing continuing
showers over southern MD this morning. Locally heavy rain is
possible, but impacts will likely be limited to ponding water on
roadways.

Later this afternoon, the focus will shift to a cold front moving
in from the west and the potential for strong to severe storms and
locally heavy rain. Although the main energy of the approaching
upper level trough looks to remain north of the Mason-Dixon, height
falls and rich low level moisture will help storms initiate along
the front...looking to be mid to late afternoon at this time. This
environment will have MLCAPE between 1000-2000 J/Kg mainly east
of the Blue Ridge. Strictly mixing the 12Z IAD RAOB would result
in higher SBCAPE values, so this alone could lead to some stronger
storms down the I-95 corridor through the DC metro. However, the
strongest CAPE/shear overlap is expected generally to the NE of
DC.

The axis of higher PWATs will be located east of the main
thunderstorm development. Combined with storm motions which could
be around 20 kt or less, stronger thunderstorm clusters could
produce locally heavy rain and possible urban flooding in
normally vulnerable areas. Isolated flash flooding cannot be ruled
out, but not expecting widespread issues given 1-hr FFG values
are generally well above 2 inches outside of the urban areas.
Will monitor the need to include a mention in the HWO.

The showers and thunderstorms will push to the north and east by the
second half of tonight as the cold front sinks south and stalls just
after clearing the forecast area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The cold front is positioned just south of the area by Wed morning
as the upper level trough remains in place extending down into the
Mid-Atlantic. Not anticipating much movement of the front Wed with
little change in the upper level pattern. The front should be
cleared enough that the precip stays south. By Wed night and heading
into Thursday, the trough lifts to the north, with the frontal
boundary in turn lifting back to the north slowly. Depending on how
exactly far north the boundary pushes will dictate how far north the
precip reaches on Thursday. Right now on the conservative side with
slight chance PoPs to the Mason-Dixon and chance further into
Central Virginia. Models suggest decent shortwave energy swinging
through around the base of the trough which will aid in afternoon
development. At the moment, not expecting any stronger or severe
storms.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Continuing chance for unsettled weather to end the work week and
heading into the weekend with one frontal boundary lingering to
the south and then another cold front slowly moving through the
region during the weekend. The previously mentioned upper level
trough, though not as deep as earlier in the week, remains over
the Northeast and thus will do little to move the nearly stalled
boundary over the southern portions of the forecast area. Will
keep chance PoPs in, especially over eastern areas closer to the
surface boundary for Friday, with drying conditions west of the
Blue Ridge during the day and into Friday night. The next cold
front approaches Friday night but with the flow aloft attempting
to become more zonal, expecting a slow southward progression of an
almost east-west front during the Saturday and into Sunday as the
boundary finally stalls over southern Virginia Sunday. Depending
on exactly where the front stalls will lead to the extent of the
precip lingering over the region, but general consensus amongst
the 00Z models does show a strong enough high pressure building
south Monday to nudge the front far enough to the south and east
to taper off PoPs.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR/MVFR conditions gradually improving, holding on longest from
DC N & E. By midday, expecting VFR through the TAF period outside
of any thunderstorm impacts. Activity this afternoon and evening
will be quite scattered in nature and possibly in two different
rounds, so not including as more than VCTS in TAFs for the time
being; subsequent TAFs will fine tune the timing. Most likely
place to include TSRA mention will be Baltimore area. Winds 10
kts or less shifting from S-SE to SW and eventually becoming NW
behind the frontal passage tonight.

VFR conditions tonight through Thursday. Winds light generally less
than 10 kts through the end of the week. Possible sub-VFR
conditions with any showers or thunderstorms Thursday night
through the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Conditions are expected to be sub-SCA through this afternoon,
however there may be a brief window on either side of cold frontal
passage this evening where winds may approach SCA levels. There
will also be a threat for organized storms early this evening
which could produce strong winds. After the front, sub-SCA
expected through the end of the week.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Sears
NEAR TERM...Sears/ADS
SHORT TERM...Sears
LONG TERM...Sears
AVIATION...Sears/ADS
MARINE...Sears/ADS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 281354
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
954 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move across the region this afternoon and
evening, finally allowing high pressure to build with improving
conditions for the middle of the week. However, as the center of
high shifts to our east, it will allow moisture to surge back into
the region, with showers and thunderstorms returning to the
forecast through the latter portion of the workweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 945 AM EDT Tuesday...

Approaching cold front is still a ways off to the northwest across
central WV. Mainly light precipitation is occurring out ahead of
the front across the region, but instability is starting to build
across the piedmont. Expect current light precipitation to continue
moving east across the region followed by some redevelopment of
convective precipitation as we get into the afternoon hours. The
dynamic environment remains weak and the threat for severe weather
remains quite marginal and will be confined to far
eastern/northeastern locations of the piedmont, with the bulk of
activity remaining further to the east and out of out area.

Previous discussion...

Front current in the Ohio Valley, will track across the region
today. Low level flow is backing as a short wave rides along this
front. Through the day today, showers will be more focused
towards the stalled boundary/lee trough over the piedmont. By this
evening, the front and associated convection will move east into
the coastal piedmont. There is a marginal risk for strong
thunderstorms to develop this afternoon over the piedmont.
However, the more widespread activity should occur east of Route
15 (Keysville- Farmville). Between Route 29 and 15, an isolated
strong to severe storm is possible this afternoon.

Heading into the afternoon, conditions will become less humid for
the mountains as drier air filters in behind the second front.
High temperatures in the west will range from the upper 70s to the
low 80s. Temperatures will warm into the mid 80s east of the Blue
Ridge.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM EDT Tuesday...

The upper trough will pivot northeast in Thursday, as high
pressure builds southeast out of the Ohio valley. The cold front
will push well south of our area but a wave of low pressure will
stalled it across the Southeast States. The challenge in the
forecast is that the drier air associated with high pressure
entering the area will remain shallow, allowing somewhat more
unstable to remain just off the surface. As a result, isolated to
scattered showers are possible across northern North Carolina and
extreme southern Virginia on Wednesday afternoon and evening as a
weak upper level disturbance pushes across the Southeast. High
temperatures on Wednesday will range from the mid 60s in the
northwest mountains to the upper 80s in the piedmont. Any
convection which develops across southern portions of the forecast
area will quickly diminish Wednesday evening. Under partly cloudy
skies and light winds, patchy fog will form overnight especially
in the western valleys. Low temperatures Wednesday night will drop
into the lower 50s in the west to the mid 60s in the east.

High pressure over the Ohio Valley will weaken on Thursday as it
slides southeast, allowing winds to shift more south to
southeasterly. This will advect deeper moisture into the Piedmont
which will combined with strong afternoon heating to generate
scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and
evening. The best chance of thunderstorms will be along and east
of the Blue Ridge. SPC in Day 3 convective outlook has placed a
marginal risk of severe storms to our southeast across the
Carolinas with main threat damaging winds. In addition, slow
movement of cells within a moist atmosphere will be capable of
producing heavy rain. High temperatures on Thursday will range
from the lower 70s in the mountains to the mid 80s in the
piedmont. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will taper off
Thursday evening into Thursday night. Low temperatures Thursday
night into Friday morning will drop into the mid 50s in the
mountains to the mid 60s in the piedmont.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 339 PM EDT Monday...

Spotty, hit and miss showers and thunderstorms will remain in the
forecast for Friday afternoon and early evening, with convection
waning after sunset with the loss of daytime heating. Friday will
also mark the beginning of a warming trend as warmer air pools
ahead of a cold front approaching from the north.

Showers and thunderstorms will be more widespread on Saturday as
the cold front sinks south of the Ohio River toward the central
Appalachians/mid-Atlantic. While still plenty of time for the
scenario to change, believe the pattern is setting up for
scattered thunderstorms to develop during early afternoon across
the mountains, with cells then solidifying into a broken line
during the evening as they pass across the Piedmont. Weather
forecast models indicate sufficient instability for a few of the
storms to become severe and precipitable water values in the
ballpark of 1.5 to nearly 2 inches support the possibility of
locally heavy rain.

The cold front will sink into northern North Carolina late
Saturday night into early Sunday, maintaining increased chances of
showers and thunderstorms across the forecast area. Believe the
severe thunderstorm threat will be significantly diminished due to
widespread cloud cover, however believe the threat of locally
heavy rain will remain, more so for locations south of Highway
460.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 720 AM EDT Tuesday...

A weak wave ahead of a cold front is bringing light rain/drizzle and
low clouds/fog to the mountains this morning. This moisture will
move east of the Blue Ridge after 14Z. After 15Z, conditions will
improve starting with KBLF/KLWB, then KBCB.

Low level winds are light and out of the west across the mountains
and remain southwesterly across the piedmont. As the front enters
the area, winds will back to the southwest for a few hours in the
afternoon. The best instabilities ahead of the front will be across
the coastal piedmont. A few showers may develop over the piedmont in
the afternoon, but the stronger storms will be east of KLYH/KDAN.
For this package, we will not have showers at any airport.

Extended discussion...

The cold front sweeps east tonight. Some airports may see fog as
ground remain saturated under clear skies. Other than some late
night valley fog, VFR conditions are expected.

Thursday into Saturday, the high will shift to the east and the
region will be within southerly flow again. This pattern will have
the potential of advecting moisture back into the area. Showers and
storms will again be possible yielding areas of sub-VFR conditions.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...MBS/RCS
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...RCS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 281120
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
720 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move across the region this afternoon and
evening, finally allowing high pressure to build with improving
conditions for the middle of the week. However, as the center of
high shifts to our east, it will allow moisture to surge back into
the region, with showers and thunderstorms returning to the
forecast through the latter portion of the workweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 330 AM EDT Tuesday...

The first front that came through Monday evening, has stalled
over the piedmont. To the west of this boundary, winds are light
and out of the west. Across the piedmont, winds are light and out
of the southwest. Some clearing took place Monday evening, which
allowed some patchy fog to form, mainly in mountain valleys. This
fog will come and go through sunrise.

A second front, current in the Ohio Valley, will track across the
region today. Low level flow is backing as a short wave rides
along this front. Some light showers will move across the Mountain
Empire and North Carolina High Country early this morning. Through
the day today, showers will be more focused towards the stalled
boundary/lee trough over the piedmont. By this evening, the front
and associated convection will move east into the coastal
piedmont. There is a marginal risk for strong thunderstorms to
develop this afternoon over the piedmont. However, the more
widespread activity should occur east of Route 15 (Keysville-
Farmville). Between Route 29 and 15, an isolated strong to severe
storm is possible this afternoon.

Heading into the afternoon, conditions will become less humid for
the mountains as drier air filters in behind the second front.
High temperatures in the west will range from the upper 70s to the
low 80s. Temperatures will warm into the mid 80s east of the Blue
Ridge.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM EDT Tuesday...

The upper trough will pivot northeast in Thursday, as high
pressure builds southeast out of the Ohio valley. The cold front
will push well south of our area but a wave of low pressure will
stalled it across the Southeast States. The challenge in the
forecast is that the drier air associated with high pressure
entering the area will remain shallow, allowing somewhat more
unstable to remain just off the surface. As a result, isolated to
scattered showers are possible across northern North Carolina and
extreme southern Virginia on Wednesday afternoon and evening as a
weak upper level disturbance pushes across the Southeast. High
temperatures on Wednesday will range from the mid 60s in the
northwest mountains to the upper 80s in the piedmont. Any
convection which develops across southern portions of the forecast
area will quickly diminish Wednesday evening. Under partly cloudy
skies and light winds, patchy fog will form overnight especially
in the western valleys. Low temperatures Wednesday night will drop
into the lower 50s in the west to the mid 60s in the east.

High pressure over the Ohio Valley will weaken on Thursday as it
slides southeast, allowing winds to shift more south to
southeasterly. This will advect deeper moisture into the Piedmont
which will combined with strong afternoon heating to generate
scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and
evening. The best chance of thunderstorms will be along and east
of the Blue Ridge. SPC in Day 3 convective outlook has placed a
marginal risk of severe storms to our southeast across the
Carolinas with main threat damaging winds. In addition, slow
movement of cells within a moist atmosphere will be capable of
producing heavy rain. High temperatures on Thursday will range
from the lower 70s in the mountains to the mid 80s in the
piedmont. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will taper off
Thursday evening into Thursday night. Low temperatures Thursday
night into Friday morning will drop into the mid 50s in the
mountains to the mid 60s in the piedmont.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 339 PM EDT Monday...

Spotty, hit and miss showers and thunderstorms will remain in the
forecast for Friday afternoon and early evening, with convection
waning after sunset with the loss of daytime heating. Friday will
also mark the beginning of a warming trend as warmer air pools
ahead of a cold front approaching from the north.

Showers and thunderstorms will be more widespread on Saturday as
the cold front sinks south of the Ohio River toward the central
Appalachians/mid-Atlantic. While still plenty of time for the
scenario to change, believe the pattern is setting up for
scattered thunderstorms to develop during early afternoon across
the mountains, with cells then solidifying into a broken line
during the evening as they pass across the Piedmont. Weather
forecast models indicate sufficient instability for a few of the
storms to become severe and precipitable water values in the
ballpark of 1.5 to nearly 2 inches support the possibility of
locally heavy rain.

The cold front will sink into northern North Carolina late
Saturday night into early Sunday, maintaining increased chances of
showers and thunderstorms across the forecast area. Believe the
severe thunderstorm threat will be significantly diminished due to
widespread cloud cover, however believe the threat of locally
heavy rain will remain, more so for locations south of Highway
460.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 720 AM EDT Tuesday...

A weak wave ahead of a cold front is bringing light rain/drizzle and
low clouds/fog to the mountains this morning. This moisture will
move east of the Blue Ridge after 14Z. After 15Z, conditions will
improve starting with KBLF/KLWB, then KBCB.

Low level winds are light and out of the west across the mountains
and remain southwesterly across the piedmont. As the front enters
the area, winds will back to the southwest for a few hours in the
afternoon. The best instabilities ahead of the front will be across
the coastal piedmont. A few showers may develop over the piedmont in
the afternoon, but the stronger storms will be east of KLYH/KDAN.
For this package, we will not have showers at any airport.

Extended discussion...

The cold front sweeps east tonight. Some airports may see fog as
ground remain saturated under clear skies. Other than some late
night valley fog, VFR conditions are expected.

Thursday into Saturday, the high will shift to the east and the
region will be within southerly flow again. This pattern will have
the potential of advecting moisture back into the area. Showers and
storms will again be possible yielding areas of sub-VFR conditions.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...RCS
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...RCS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 281120
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
720 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move across the region this afternoon and
evening, finally allowing high pressure to build with improving
conditions for the middle of the week. However, as the center of
high shifts to our east, it will allow moisture to surge back into
the region, with showers and thunderstorms returning to the
forecast through the latter portion of the workweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 330 AM EDT Tuesday...

The first front that came through Monday evening, has stalled
over the piedmont. To the west of this boundary, winds are light
and out of the west. Across the piedmont, winds are light and out
of the southwest. Some clearing took place Monday evening, which
allowed some patchy fog to form, mainly in mountain valleys. This
fog will come and go through sunrise.

A second front, current in the Ohio Valley, will track across the
region today. Low level flow is backing as a short wave rides
along this front. Some light showers will move across the Mountain
Empire and North Carolina High Country early this morning. Through
the day today, showers will be more focused towards the stalled
boundary/lee trough over the piedmont. By this evening, the front
and associated convection will move east into the coastal
piedmont. There is a marginal risk for strong thunderstorms to
develop this afternoon over the piedmont. However, the more
widespread activity should occur east of Route 15 (Keysville-
Farmville). Between Route 29 and 15, an isolated strong to severe
storm is possible this afternoon.

Heading into the afternoon, conditions will become less humid for
the mountains as drier air filters in behind the second front.
High temperatures in the west will range from the upper 70s to the
low 80s. Temperatures will warm into the mid 80s east of the Blue
Ridge.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM EDT Tuesday...

The upper trough will pivot northeast in Thursday, as high
pressure builds southeast out of the Ohio valley. The cold front
will push well south of our area but a wave of low pressure will
stalled it across the Southeast States. The challenge in the
forecast is that the drier air associated with high pressure
entering the area will remain shallow, allowing somewhat more
unstable to remain just off the surface. As a result, isolated to
scattered showers are possible across northern North Carolina and
extreme southern Virginia on Wednesday afternoon and evening as a
weak upper level disturbance pushes across the Southeast. High
temperatures on Wednesday will range from the mid 60s in the
northwest mountains to the upper 80s in the piedmont. Any
convection which develops across southern portions of the forecast
area will quickly diminish Wednesday evening. Under partly cloudy
skies and light winds, patchy fog will form overnight especially
in the western valleys. Low temperatures Wednesday night will drop
into the lower 50s in the west to the mid 60s in the east.

High pressure over the Ohio Valley will weaken on Thursday as it
slides southeast, allowing winds to shift more south to
southeasterly. This will advect deeper moisture into the Piedmont
which will combined with strong afternoon heating to generate
scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and
evening. The best chance of thunderstorms will be along and east
of the Blue Ridge. SPC in Day 3 convective outlook has placed a
marginal risk of severe storms to our southeast across the
Carolinas with main threat damaging winds. In addition, slow
movement of cells within a moist atmosphere will be capable of
producing heavy rain. High temperatures on Thursday will range
from the lower 70s in the mountains to the mid 80s in the
piedmont. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will taper off
Thursday evening into Thursday night. Low temperatures Thursday
night into Friday morning will drop into the mid 50s in the
mountains to the mid 60s in the piedmont.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 339 PM EDT Monday...

Spotty, hit and miss showers and thunderstorms will remain in the
forecast for Friday afternoon and early evening, with convection
waning after sunset with the loss of daytime heating. Friday will
also mark the beginning of a warming trend as warmer air pools
ahead of a cold front approaching from the north.

Showers and thunderstorms will be more widespread on Saturday as
the cold front sinks south of the Ohio River toward the central
Appalachians/mid-Atlantic. While still plenty of time for the
scenario to change, believe the pattern is setting up for
scattered thunderstorms to develop during early afternoon across
the mountains, with cells then solidifying into a broken line
during the evening as they pass across the Piedmont. Weather
forecast models indicate sufficient instability for a few of the
storms to become severe and precipitable water values in the
ballpark of 1.5 to nearly 2 inches support the possibility of
locally heavy rain.

The cold front will sink into northern North Carolina late
Saturday night into early Sunday, maintaining increased chances of
showers and thunderstorms across the forecast area. Believe the
severe thunderstorm threat will be significantly diminished due to
widespread cloud cover, however believe the threat of locally
heavy rain will remain, more so for locations south of Highway
460.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 720 AM EDT Tuesday...

A weak wave ahead of a cold front is bringing light rain/drizzle and
low clouds/fog to the mountains this morning. This moisture will
move east of the Blue Ridge after 14Z. After 15Z, conditions will
improve starting with KBLF/KLWB, then KBCB.

Low level winds are light and out of the west across the mountains
and remain southwesterly across the piedmont. As the front enters
the area, winds will back to the southwest for a few hours in the
afternoon. The best instabilities ahead of the front will be across
the coastal piedmont. A few showers may develop over the piedmont in
the afternoon, but the stronger storms will be east of KLYH/KDAN.
For this package, we will not have showers at any airport.

Extended discussion...

The cold front sweeps east tonight. Some airports may see fog as
ground remain saturated under clear skies. Other than some late
night valley fog, VFR conditions are expected.

Thursday into Saturday, the high will shift to the east and the
region will be within southerly flow again. This pattern will have
the potential of advecting moisture back into the area. Showers and
storms will again be possible yielding areas of sub-VFR conditions.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...RCS
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...RCS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280824
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
424 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front approaches from the west today, as a pre-frontal
trough remains over the local area. The front will slowly move
across the region late this afternoon through tonight. Weak high
pressure builds in from the north Wednesday and Thursday as the
front stalls across the Carolinas. The next cold front approaches
the region late in the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Current analysis depicts low pressure over eastern Canada, with a
surface cold front extending SW through western NY and into the
Ohio Valley. A pre-frontal sfc trough is in place along/just E of
The Appalachians. Ongoing widespread shower with embedded tstm
activity over the Ches Bay and eastern Shore, with coverage more
isolated to widely scattered across central and south central VA
(with dry conditions over far se VA and ne NC). GFS/NAM reveal
that although CAPE is very limited, elevated instability per
negative showalter indices over much of the area has been
sufficient when combined with decent lift to keep showers going
along with a few tstms. Activity off to the W/SW of metro richmond
likely to increase in coverage over the next few hrs and will
carry likely POPS of 60-70% from the eastern shore back W/SW
through cent ral and south central VA through the morning, tapered
to only low chc POPS over the far SE through mid morning. However,
expect highest coverage of precip to gradually shift E/SE through
the late morning/early aftn hrs, with likely POPS overspreading se
VA and ne NC by late morning through much of the aftn. Meanwhile,
some breaks in the clouds are expected over central VA as POPS
decrease somewhat by mid aftn onward. If enough clearing occurs
this aftn, could see some marginally strong tstms develop, mainly
W of ches Bay and SPC has this approximate area in a marginal risk
for severe tstms. Still, greater effective shear of 30 Kt+ should
stay N of the entire area closer to stronger h5 height falls since
the upper low will be well to our north across Ontario. Given the
continued moist airmass with precipitable waters around 2.00" and
relatively weak steering flow aloft (at least through 18Z) locally
heavy rain will be the main concern and will address in the HWO.
Highs generally in the low-mid 80s today (possibly staying in
upper 70s/around 80 depending on rain coverage through the aftn).

Upper low tracks from NY state to New England later tonight, a
slightly slower secenario compared to past model runs. Still
expect the cold front to push through the local area, though the
front may hang up near the coast. Height falls will result in
cyclogenesis just off the Northeast coast Tuesday night. As the
low wraps up, lingering mid level moisture across the northeast
forecast area in concert with strengthening forcing for ascent is
expected to produce scattered showers Tuesday evening. Best
chances will be from the Northern Neck to the Eastern Shore.
Drying late Tuesday night with a clearing sky inland. Partly-
mostly cloudy near the coast. Lows range from the mid to upper
60`s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Broad, upper level trough pushes across the region Wednesday. The
frontal boundary expected to stall in the vicinity of northeast
North Carolina as high pressure builds in from the northwest.
Departing 70+ knot upper jet and enough lingering mid level
moisture (precipitable waters drop below 1.5 inches) should be
enough for widely scattered diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms, mainly over far southern VA and ne NC. Highs
generally in the mid 80`s under a partly cloudy sky. Best chances
for measurable precipitation will be south of the Albemarle Sound
Wednesday night, but will keep mention of slight chance showers.
Lows generally in the low to mid 60`s N to upper 60s S.

Surface high pressure centers along the Mid-Atlantic coast
Thursday morning as the next upper level shortwave approaches
from the west. Low pressure progged to develop over the Southeast
states with an inverted trough extending northward over the
central Appalachians. Upslope flow and the approaching wave will
result in showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain. GFS
is wettest model and would support high chc POPS into the CWA
while the NAm/GEM are drier. Expect much of the forecast area to
remain dry, but will mention a 20-30% POP for showers coming off
the higher terrain Thursday afternoon into areas W of the Bay.
Otherwise, near seasonal temps again with highs forecast in the
mid 80`s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Active northern stream upper trough will remain the dominant wx
feature through the medium range period. Resultant W-NW flow will
continue for the late week/Holiday weekend period.

Meanwhile, at the surface, a rather stagnant pattern looks to set up
with weak front/sfc trough dropping into the area and lingering over
the local area. Warm, moist airmass (PW AOA 2" from Friday night
through the weekend)  in tandem with the  boundary and numerous
disturbances riding across the area in WNW flow aloft will bring a
solid chance for mainly diurnally driven showers and tstms. Have
continued solid chance pops each day during this period.
Stronger front crosses the area by later Sunday into Monday.

For temps, pattern favors temperatures hovering right around climo
normal...with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Early morning lows
generally in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Early this morning, a cold front was dropping thru the Ohio
valley. The front will move southeast and pass acrs the Mid Atlc
States tonight into Wed morning. An upper level disturbance and
surface trough will produce sctd showers and tstms today into
this evening, with additional sctd pcpn possible with the front
tonight. Conditions are expected to generally be MVFR with the
weather, but a few hours of IFR will be possible at RIC and SBY.
Winds will be light and generally fm the south.

OUTLOOK...Expect mainly dry/VFR conditions for Wed and Thu, as
high pres nudges in fm the WNW. More chances for pcpn return next
weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Early this morning, SSW winds were mainly 5 to 15 kt acrs the
waters, and will remain at those speeds today into tngt, as a
pre-frntl trof lingers ovr the area and then the cold front
approaches fm the WNW. The front and accompanying wind shift to
the N-NE drops through the waters Wed morning into Wed aftn with
high pres pushing into the Great Lakes and OH Valley. This will
maintain a NE to E flow later Wed and Thu. Weak front/sfc trough
will meander over/just south of the area for the late week period,
and will serve as the focus for late day convection over the
region late in the week and through the weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Chances to add to an already wet month mainly tonight and Tue. June
has been another wet month at Richmond, the monthly total rainfall
through the 24th stands at 6.92" and already makes this the 9th
wettest June on record (2004 is wettest June with 9.93").

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/SAM
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG
CLIMATE...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KRNK 280759
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
359 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move across the region this afternoon and
evening, finally allowing high pressure to build with improving
conditions for the middle of the week. However, as the center of
high shifts to our east, it will allow moisture to surge back into
the region, with showers and thunderstorms returning to the
forecast through the latter portion of the workweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 330 AM EDT Tuesday...

The first front that came through Monday evening, has stalled
over the piedmont. To the west of this boundary, winds are light
and out of the west. Across the piedmont, winds are light and out
of the southwest. Some clearing took place Monday evening, which
allowed some patchy fog to form, mainly in mountain valleys. This
fog will come and go through sunrise.

A second front, current in the Ohio Valley, will track across the
region today. Low level flow is backing as a short wave rides
along this front. Some light showers will move across the Mountain
Empire and North Carolina High Country early this morning. Through
the day today, showers will be more focused towards the stalled
boundary/lee trough over the piedmont. By this evening, the front
and associated convection will move east into the coastal
piedmont. There is a marginal risk for strong thunderstorms to
develop this afternoon over the piedmont. However, the more
widespread activity should occur east of Route 15 (Keysville-
Farmville). Between Route 29 and 15, an isolated strong to severe
storm is possible this afternoon.

Heading into the afternoon, conditions will become less humid for
the mountains as drier air filters in behind the second front.
High temperatures in the west will range from the upper 70s to the
low 80s. Temperatures will warm into the mid 80s east of the Blue
Ridge.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM EDT Tuesday...

The upper trough will pivot northeast in Thursday, as high
pressure builds southeast out of the Ohio valley. The cold front
will push well south of our area but a wave of low pressure will
stalled it across the Southeast States. The challenge in the
forecast is that the drier air associated with high pressure
entering the area will remain shallow, allowing somewhat more
unstable to remain just off the surface. As a result, isolated to
scattered showers are possible across northern North Carolina and
extreme southern Virginia on Wednesday afternoon and evening as a
weak upper level disturbance pushes across the Southeast. High
temperatures on Wednesday will range from the mid 60s in the
northwest mountains to the upper 80s in the piedmont. Any
convection which develops across southern portions of the forecast
area will quickly diminish Wednesday evening. Under partly cloudy
skies and light winds, patchy fog will form overnight especially
in the western valleys. Low temperatures Wednesday night will drop
into the lower 50s in the west to the mid 60s in the east.

High pressure over the Ohio Valley will weaken on Thursday as it
slides southeast, allowing winds to shift more south to
southeasterly. This will advect deeper moisture into the Piedmont
which will combined with strong afternoon heating to generate
scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and
evening. The best chance of thunderstorms will be along and east
of the Blue Ridge. SPC in Day 3 convective outlook has placed a
marginal risk of severe storms to our southeast across the
Carolinas with main threat damaging winds. In addition, slow
movement of cells within a moist atmosphere will be capable of
producing heavy rain. High temperatures on Thursday will range
from the lower 70s in the mountains to the mid 80s in the
piedmont. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will taper off
Thursday evening into Thursday night. Low temperatures Thursday
night into Friday morning will drop into the mid 50s in the
mountains to the mid 60s in the piedmont.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 339 PM EDT Monday...

Spotty, hit and miss showers and thunderstorms will remain in the
forecast for Friday afternoon and early evening, with convection
waning after sunset with the loss of daytime heating. Friday will
also mark the beginning of a warming trend as warmer air pools
ahead of a cold front approaching from the north.

Showers and thunderstorms will be more widespread on Saturday as
the cold front sinks south of the Ohio River toward the central
Appalachians/mid-Atlantic. While still plenty of time for the
scenario to change, believe the pattern is setting up for
scattered thunderstorms to develop during early afternoon across
the mountains, with cells then solidifying into a broken line
during the evening as they pass across the Piedmont. Weather
forecast models indicate sufficient instability for a few of the
storms to become severe and precipitable water values in the
ballpark of 1.5 to nearly 2 inches support the possibility of
locally heavy rain.

The cold front will sink into northern North Carolina late
Saturday night into early Sunday, maintaining increased chances of
showers and thunderstorms across the forecast area. Believe the
severe thunderstorm threat will be significantly diminished due to
widespread cloud cover, however believe the threat of locally
heavy rain will remain, more so for locations south of Highway
460.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 120 AM EDT Tuesday...

Showers have moved east of the Blue Ridge with some lingering
showers that are fading over the piedmont. The cold front is
slowing moving southeast over the Ohio Valley and will push
through the area Tuesday afternoon. Since the area remains in the
warm moist sector and with a saturated ground, any clearing will
lead to areas of dense fog, especially across the mountains
(KBLF/KLWB/KBCB) through 12Z Tuesday. East of the Blue Ridge
(KROA/KLYH/KDAN) should keep at least a mid deck through the
night, but could see fog late if clearing takes place. Any fog
will lift by mid morning.

Low level winds are light and out of the west across the
mountains and remain southwesterly across the piedmont. As the
front enters the area, winds will back to the southwest for a few
hours in the afternoon. The best instabilities ahead of the front
will be across the coastal piedmont. A few showers may develop
over the piedmont in the afternoon, but the stronger storms will
be east of KLYH/KDAN. For this package, we will not have showers
at any airport.

Extended discussion... The cold front sweeps east Tuesday night.
Some airports may see fog as ground remain saturated under clear
skies. Other than some late night valley fog, VFR conditions are
expected.

Thursday into Saturday, the high will shift to the east and the
region will be within southerly flow again. This pattern will have
the potential of advecting moisture back into the area. Showers
and storms will again be possible yielding areas of sub-VFR
conditions.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...RCS
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...RCS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280759
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
359 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front approaches from the west today, as a pre-frontal
trough remains over the local area. The front will slowly move
across the region late this afternoon through tonight. Weak high
pressure builds in from the north Wednesday and Thursday as the
front stalls across the Carolinas. The next cold front approaches
the region late in the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Current analysis depicts low pressure over eastern Canada, with a
surface cold front extending SW through western NY and into the
Ohio Valley. A pre-frontal sfc trough is in place along/just E of
The Appalachians. Ongoing widespread shower with embedded tstm
activity over the Ches Bay and eastern Shore, with coverage more
isolated to widely scattered across central and south central VA
(with dry conditions over far se VA and ne NC). GFS/NAM reveal
that although CAPE is very limited, elevated instability per
negative showalter indices over much of the area has been
sufficient when combined with decent lift to keep showers going
along with a few tstms. Activity off to the W/SW of metro richmond
likely to increase in coverage over the next few hrs and will
carry likely POPS of 60-70% from the eastern shore back W/SW
through cent ral and south central VA through the morning, tapered
to only low chc POPS over the far SE through mid morning. However,
expect highest coverage of precip to gradually shift E/SE through
the late morning/early aftn hrs, with likely POPS overspreading se
VA and ne NC by late morning through much of the aftn. Meanwhile,
some breaks in the clouds are expected over central VA as POPS
decrease somewhat by mid aftn onward. If enough clearing occurs
this aftn, could see some marginally strong tstms develop, mainly
W of ches Bay and SPC has this approximate area in a marginal risk
for severe tstms. Still, greater effective shear of 30 Kt+ should
stay N of the entire area closer to stronger h5 height falls since
the upper low will be well to our north across Ontario. Given the
continued moist airmass with precipitable waters around 2.00" and
relatively weak steering flow aloft (at least through 18Z) locally
heavy rain will be the main concern and will address in the HWO.
Highs generally in the low-mid 80s today (possibly staying in
upper 70s/around 80 depending on rain coverage through the aftn).

Upper low tracks from NY state to New England later tonight, a
slightly slower secenario compared to past model runs. Still
expect the cold front to push through the local area, though the
front may hang up near the coast. Height falls will result in
cyclogenesis just off the Northeast coast Tuesday night. As the
low wraps up, lingering mid level moisture across the northeast
forecast area in concert with strengthening forcing for ascent is
expected to produce scattered showers Tuesday evening. Best
chances will be from the Northern Neck to the Eastern Shore.
Drying late Tuesday night with a clearing sky inland. Partly-
mostly cloudy near the coast. Lows range from the mid to upper
60`s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Broad, upper level trough pushes across the region Wednesday. The
frontal boundary expected to stall in the vicinity of northeast
North Carolina as high pressure builds in from the northwest.
Departing 70+ knot upper jet and enough lingering mid level
moisture (precipitable waters drop below 1.5 inches) should be
enough for widely scattered diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms, mainly over far southern VA and ne NC. Highs
generally in the mid 80`s under a partly cloudy sky. Best chances
for measurable precipitation will be south of the Albemarle Sound
Wednesday night, but will keep mention of slight chance showers.
Lows generally in the low to mid 60`s N to upper 60s S.

Surface high pressure centers along the Mid-Atlantic coast
Thursday morning as the next upper level shortwave approaches
from the west. Low pressure progged to develop over the Southeast
states with an inverted trough extending northward over the
central Appalachians. Upslope flow and the approaching wave will
result in showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain. GFS
is wettest model and would support high chc POPS into the CWA
while the NAm/GEM are drier. Expect much of the forecast area to
remain dry, but will mention a 20-30% POP for showers coming off
the higher terrain Thursday afternoon into areas W of the Bay.
Otherwise, near seasonal temps again with highs forecast in the
mid 80`s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Active northern stream upper trough will remain the dominant wx
feature through the medium range period. Resultant W-NW flow will
continue for the late week/Holiday weekend period.

Meanwhile, at the surface, a rather stagnant pattern looks to set up
with weak front/sfc trough dropping into the area and lingering over
the local area. Warm, moist airmass (PW AOA 2" from Friday night
through the weekend)  in tandem with the  boundary and numerous
disturbances riding across the area in WNW flow aloft will bring a
solid chance for mainly diurnally driven showers and tstms. Have
continued solid chance pops each day during this period.
Stronger front crosses the area by later Sunday into Monday.

For temps, pattern favors temperatures hovering right around climo
normal...with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Early morning lows
generally in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Early this morning, a cold front was dropping thru the Ohio
valley. The front will move southeast and pass acrs the Mid Atlc
States tonight into Wed morning. An upper level disturbance and
surface trough will produce sctd showers and tstms today into
this evening, with additional sctd pcpn possible with the front
tonight. Conditions are expected to generally be MVFR with the
weather, but a few hours of IFR will be possible at RIC and SBY.
Winds will be light and generally fm the south.

OUTLOOK...Expect mainly dry/VFR conditions for Wed and Thu, as
high pres nudges in fm the WNW. More chances for pcpn return next
weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Latest obs reflect sub-sca E-SE flow across the waters this aftn.
1024+mb sfc High remains centered off the New England and northern
Mid-Atlantic coast, while a cold front continues to slowly slide
across the Ohio valley.

Sfc high will continue to slowly drift east through tonight as a pre-
frontal trough approaches from the WNW. As noted in the near term
above, near-term CAMS becoming a bit less bullish on
convection...and are anticipating a bit more in the way of
clearing/cooling over the area later tonight. This, in tandem with
tightening pressure gradient w/pre-frontal trough building in will
likely result in at least a few hours of low end SCA winds in the
Ches Bay, and have accordingly hoisted SCA for tonight. Winds will
lessen a bit and become SSW as the high moves farther offshore and
the trough moves in Tuesday morning. SSW flow 10 to 15 kt continues
Tue into Tue ngt, as the (weak) cool front approaches from the WNW.
The front and accompanying wind shift to the N-NE wind drops through
the waters Wed morning into Wed aftn with high pressure pushing into
the Great Lakes and OH Valley. This will maintain a NE to E flow
later Wed and Thu. Weak front/sfc trough will meander over/just
south of the area for the late week period, and will serve as the
focus for late day convection over the area late in the week and
through the weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Chances to add to an already wet month mainly tonight and Tue. June
has been another wet month at Richmond, the monthly total rainfall
through the 24th stands at 6.92" and already makes this the 9th
wettest June on record (2004 is wettest June with 9.93").

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/SAM
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MAM/TMG
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KLWX 280718
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
318 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A surface trough lingers over the region this morning with a cold
front swinging through later today before stalling to the south.
High pressure will build in the wake of the front. The next cold
front crosses the area Saturday, stalling over the southern Mid-
Atlantic Sunday and eventually pushes south Monday as high
pressure builds in from the north.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Surface obs early this morning showing surface trough still in place
and producing showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly over eastern
areas of the forecast area. The storms are slowly moving east and
are expected to persist through daybreak before mostly clearing the
area. Moisture lower levels in place from recent rains and dew
points around 70 so expecting patchy fog to develop early this
morning especially where breaks in the clouds occur.

For today, we will shift our focus from heavy rain/flooding concerns
over western portions of the forecast area to the east and the
potential for stronger thunderstorms. A cold front will swing
through later today, providing the needed forcing at the surface in
tandem with forcing aloft associated with a digging upper level
trough into the Mid-Atlantic. The main energy of the trough looks to
remain north of the Mason-Dixon, but cannot rule out some stronger
storms going up over the Baltimore metro area late afternoon into
this evening. While the southerly flow isnt strong ahead of the
front, it is persistent in the warm air and moisture advection,
resulting in MLCAPE between 1000-1500 J/Kg mainly east of the Blue
Ridge. This combined with increased deep layer shear could produce
isolated stronger storms by this evening, again mainly DC metro to
the east. The axis of higher PWATs will shift eastward ahead of the
main thunderstorm development. The heavy rain this morning has led
to a slight decrease in flash flood guidance over the I-95 corridor,
so while not expecting the extent of flash flooding threat as we saw
on Monday, cannot rule out any stronger thunderstorm producing brief
heavy rain and possible urban flooding in normally vulnerable
areas.

The showers and thunderstorms will push to the north and east by the
second half of tonight as the cold front sinks south and stalls just
after clearing the forecast area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The cold front is positioned just south of the area by Wed morning
as the upper level trough remains in place extending down into the
Mid-Atlantic. Not anticipating much movement of the front Wed with
little change in the upper level pattern. The front should be
cleared enough that the precip stays south. By Wed night and heading
into Thursday, the trough lifts to the north, with the frontal
boundary in turn lifting back to the north slowly. Depending on how
exactly far north the boundary pushes will dictate how far north the
precip reaches on Thursday. Right now on the conservative side with
slight chance PoPs to the Mason-Dixon and chance further into
Central Virginia. Models suggest decent shortwave energy swinging
through around the base of the trough which will aid in afternoon
development. At the moment, not expecting any stronger or severe
storms.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Continuing chance for unsettled weather to end the work week and
heading into the weekend with one frontal boundary lingering to
the south and then another cold front slowly moving through the
region during the weekend. The previously mentioned upper level
trough, though not as deep as earlier in the week, remains over
the Northeast and thus will do little to move the nearly stalled
boundary over the southern portions of the forecast area. Will
keep chance PoPs in, especially over eastern areas closer to the
surface boundary for Friday, with drying conditions west of the
Blue Ridge during the day and into Friday night. The next cold
front approaches Friday night but with the flow aloft attempting
to become more zonal, expecting a slow southward progression of an
almost east-west front during the Saturday and into Sunday as the
boundary finally stalls over southern Virginia Sunday. Depending
on exactly where the front stalls will lead to the extent of the
precip lingering over the region, but general consensus amongst
the 00Z models does show a strong enough high pressure building
south Monday to nudge the front far enough to the south and east
to taper off PoPs.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Varying conditions early this morning with showers and
thunderstorms impacting the DC/Balt TAF sites and fog beginning to
develop to the west. Any sub-VFR conditions will improve to VFR by
mid morning and will generally be VFR then through the TAF period
outside of any thunderstorm impacts. Activity this afternoon and
evening will be quite scattered in nature and possibly in two
different rounds, so not including as more than VCTS in TAFs for the
time being; subsequent TAFs will fine tune the timing. Winds 10 kts
or less shifting from S-SE to SW and eventually becoming NW behind
the frontal passage tonight.

VFR conditions tonight through Thursday. Winds light generally less
than 10 kts through the end of the week. Possible sub-VFR
conditions with any showers or thunderstorms Thursday night
through the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA remains in effect for portions of the Chesapeake Bay with
occasional gusts to 20 knots on going. Conditions are expected to
become sub-SCA on all waters after daybreak and remain as such
through the end of the week.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     ANZ533-534-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Sears
NEAR TERM...Sears
SHORT TERM...Sears
LONG TERM...Sears
AVIATION...Sears
MARINE...Sears




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280608
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
208 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front slowly approaches from the west overnight. The front
will move across the region Tuesday and Tuesday night. Weak high
pressure builds in from the north Wednesday and Thursday as the
front stalls across the Carolinas. The next cold front approaches
the region late in the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Axis of incrsd moisture approaching the FA fm the W...out well to
the E of cdfnt moving through the OH vly. Hi res/near term guid
suggests that area of shras/isold tstms entering far nnw areas
attm...sloly progresses ESE through the overnight hrs. Highest POP
axis (30-50%) mnly centered fm SBY-AVC. POPs aob 20% confined to
far SE VA-cstl NE NC. Otrw...partly cloudy SE to vrb clds-mostly
cloudy elsw. Most lows 68-72F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Upper level trough digs into New England Tuesday with an attendant
cold front approaching from the northwest. Lead shortwave energy
progged to lift into the area Tuesday morning, with general model
consensus developing showers along the lee/thermal trough from the
Piedmont into central Virginia. Latest SREF guidance depicts an
anomalously moist air mass over the region, with precipitable waters
progged over 2 inches ahead of the surface trough (+2 standard
deviations). Instability will be limited in the morning, but will
keep mention of chance thunder. Theta-e advection and temperatures
warming into the low to mid 80`s will result in a marginally
unstable air mass Tuesday afternoon with thunder becoming more
widespread. However, with the strongest height falls north of the
region, only expect deep layer shear or 20 to 30 knots. Organized
convection is not expected. Likely POPs will be maintained generally
along and east of Interstate 95. The main threat will be locally
heavy rainfall due to the moist air mass and relatively weak flow.
Upper trough tracks over New England Tuesday night, pushing the
cold front through the local area. Height falls will result in
cyclogenesis just off the Northeast coast Tuesday night. As the
low wraps up, lingering mid level moisture across the northeast
forecast area in concert with strengthening forcing for ascent is
expected to produce scattered showers Tuesday evening. Best
chances will be from the Northern Neck to the Eastern Shore.
Drying late Tuesday night with a clearing sky inland. Partly
cloudy near the coast. Lows range from the mid to upper 60`s.

Broad, upper level trough pushes across the region Wednesday. The
frontal boundary expected to stall in the vicinity of northeast
North Carolina as high pressure builds in from the northwest.
Departing 70+ knot upper jet and enough lingering mid level moisture
(precipitable waters drop below 1.5 inches) should be enough for
scattered diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms. Highs
generally in the mid 80`s under a partly cloudy sky. Best chances
for measurable precipitation will be south of the Albemarle Sound
Wednesday night, but will keep mention of slight chance showers.
Lows generally in the low to mid 60`s.

Surface high pressure centers along the Mid-Atlantic coast Thursday
as the next upper level shortwave approaches from the west. Low
pressure progged to develop over the Southeast states with an
inverted trough extending northward over the central Appalachians.
Upslope flow and the approaching wave will result in showers and
thunderstorms over the higher terrain. Expect much of the forecast
area to remain dry, but will mention a slight chance POP for showers
coming off the higher terrain Thursday afternoon. Otherwise, near
seasonal temps again with highs forecast in the mid 80`s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Active northern stream upper trough will remain the dominant wx
feature through the medium range period. Resultant W-NW flow will
continue for the late week/Holiday weekend period.

Meanwhile, at the surface, a rather stagnant pattern looks to set up
with weak front/sfc trough dropping into the area and lingering over
the local area. Warm, moist airmass (PW AOA 2" from Friday night
through the weekend)  in tandem with the  boundary and numerous
disturbances riding across the area in WNW flow aloft will bring a
solid chance for mainly diurnally driven showers and tstms. Have
continued solid chance pops each day during this period.
Stronger front crosses the area by later Sunday into Monday.

For temps, pattern favors temperatures hovering right around climo
normal...with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Early morning lows
generally in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Early this morning, a cold front was dropping thru the Ohio
valley. The front will move southeast and pass acrs the Mid Atlc
States tonight into Wed morning. An upper level disturbance and
surface trough will produce sctd showers and tstms today into
this evening, with additional sctd pcpn possible with the front
tonight. Conditions are expected to generally be MVFR with the
weather, but a few hours of IFR will be possible at RIC and SBY.
Winds will be light and generally fm the south.

OUTLOOK...Expect mainly dry/VFR conditions for Wed and Thu, as
high pres nudges in fm the WNW. More chances for pcpn return next
weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Latest obs reflect sub-sca E-SE flow across the waters this aftn.
1024+mb sfc High remains centered off the New England and northern
Mid-Atlantic coast, while a cold front continues to slowly slide
across the Ohio valley.

Sfc high will continue to slowly drift east through tonight as a pre-
frontal trough approaches from the WNW. As noted in the near term
above, near-term CAMS becoming a bit less bullish on
convection...and are anticipating a bit more in the way of
clearing/cooling over the area later tonight. This, in tandem with
tightening pressure gradient w/pre-frontal trough building in will
likely result in at least a few hours of low end SCA winds in the
Ches Bay, and have accordingly hoisted SCA for tonight. Winds will
lessen a bit and become SSW as the high moves farther offshore and
the trough moves in Tuesday morning. SSW flow 10 to 15 kt continues
Tue into Tue ngt, as the (weak) cool front approaches from the WNW.
The front and accompanying wind shift to the N-NE wind drops through
the waters Wed morning into Wed aftn with high pressure pushing into
the Great Lakes and OH Valley. This will maintain a NE to E flow
later Wed and Thu. Weak front/sfc trough will meander over/just
south of the area for the late week period, and will serve as the
focus for late day convection over the area late in the week and
through the weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Chances to add to an already wet month mainly tonight and Tue. June
has been another wet month at Richmond, the monthly total rainfall
through the 24th stands at 6.92" and already makes this the 9th
wettest June on record (2004 is wettest June with 9.93").

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     ANZ630>632-634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB/SAM
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...LKB/SAM
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MAM/TMG
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280608
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
208 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front slowly approaches from the west overnight. The front
will move across the region Tuesday and Tuesday night. Weak high
pressure builds in from the north Wednesday and Thursday as the
front stalls across the Carolinas. The next cold front approaches
the region late in the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Axis of incrsd moisture approaching the FA fm the W...out well to
the E of cdfnt moving through the OH vly. Hi res/near term guid
suggests that area of shras/isold tstms entering far nnw areas
attm...sloly progresses ESE through the overnight hrs. Highest POP
axis (30-50%) mnly centered fm SBY-AVC. POPs aob 20% confined to
far SE VA-cstl NE NC. Otrw...partly cloudy SE to vrb clds-mostly
cloudy elsw. Most lows 68-72F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Upper level trough digs into New England Tuesday with an attendant
cold front approaching from the northwest. Lead shortwave energy
progged to lift into the area Tuesday morning, with general model
consensus developing showers along the lee/thermal trough from the
Piedmont into central Virginia. Latest SREF guidance depicts an
anomalously moist air mass over the region, with precipitable waters
progged over 2 inches ahead of the surface trough (+2 standard
deviations). Instability will be limited in the morning, but will
keep mention of chance thunder. Theta-e advection and temperatures
warming into the low to mid 80`s will result in a marginally
unstable air mass Tuesday afternoon with thunder becoming more
widespread. However, with the strongest height falls north of the
region, only expect deep layer shear or 20 to 30 knots. Organized
convection is not expected. Likely POPs will be maintained generally
along and east of Interstate 95. The main threat will be locally
heavy rainfall due to the moist air mass and relatively weak flow.
Upper trough tracks over New England Tuesday night, pushing the
cold front through the local area. Height falls will result in
cyclogenesis just off the Northeast coast Tuesday night. As the
low wraps up, lingering mid level moisture across the northeast
forecast area in concert with strengthening forcing for ascent is
expected to produce scattered showers Tuesday evening. Best
chances will be from the Northern Neck to the Eastern Shore.
Drying late Tuesday night with a clearing sky inland. Partly
cloudy near the coast. Lows range from the mid to upper 60`s.

Broad, upper level trough pushes across the region Wednesday. The
frontal boundary expected to stall in the vicinity of northeast
North Carolina as high pressure builds in from the northwest.
Departing 70+ knot upper jet and enough lingering mid level moisture
(precipitable waters drop below 1.5 inches) should be enough for
scattered diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms. Highs
generally in the mid 80`s under a partly cloudy sky. Best chances
for measurable precipitation will be south of the Albemarle Sound
Wednesday night, but will keep mention of slight chance showers.
Lows generally in the low to mid 60`s.

Surface high pressure centers along the Mid-Atlantic coast Thursday
as the next upper level shortwave approaches from the west. Low
pressure progged to develop over the Southeast states with an
inverted trough extending northward over the central Appalachians.
Upslope flow and the approaching wave will result in showers and
thunderstorms over the higher terrain. Expect much of the forecast
area to remain dry, but will mention a slight chance POP for showers
coming off the higher terrain Thursday afternoon. Otherwise, near
seasonal temps again with highs forecast in the mid 80`s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Active northern stream upper trough will remain the dominant wx
feature through the medium range period. Resultant W-NW flow will
continue for the late week/Holiday weekend period.

Meanwhile, at the surface, a rather stagnant pattern looks to set up
with weak front/sfc trough dropping into the area and lingering over
the local area. Warm, moist airmass (PW AOA 2" from Friday night
through the weekend)  in tandem with the  boundary and numerous
disturbances riding across the area in WNW flow aloft will bring a
solid chance for mainly diurnally driven showers and tstms. Have
continued solid chance pops each day during this period.
Stronger front crosses the area by later Sunday into Monday.

For temps, pattern favors temperatures hovering right around climo
normal...with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Early morning lows
generally in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Early this morning, a cold front was dropping thru the Ohio
valley. The front will move southeast and pass acrs the Mid Atlc
States tonight into Wed morning. An upper level disturbance and
surface trough will produce sctd showers and tstms today into
this evening, with additional sctd pcpn possible with the front
tonight. Conditions are expected to generally be MVFR with the
weather, but a few hours of IFR will be possible at RIC and SBY.
Winds will be light and generally fm the south.

OUTLOOK...Expect mainly dry/VFR conditions for Wed and Thu, as
high pres nudges in fm the WNW. More chances for pcpn return next
weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Latest obs reflect sub-sca E-SE flow across the waters this aftn.
1024+mb sfc High remains centered off the New England and northern
Mid-Atlantic coast, while a cold front continues to slowly slide
across the Ohio valley.

Sfc high will continue to slowly drift east through tonight as a pre-
frontal trough approaches from the WNW. As noted in the near term
above, near-term CAMS becoming a bit less bullish on
convection...and are anticipating a bit more in the way of
clearing/cooling over the area later tonight. This, in tandem with
tightening pressure gradient w/pre-frontal trough building in will
likely result in at least a few hours of low end SCA winds in the
Ches Bay, and have accordingly hoisted SCA for tonight. Winds will
lessen a bit and become SSW as the high moves farther offshore and
the trough moves in Tuesday morning. SSW flow 10 to 15 kt continues
Tue into Tue ngt, as the (weak) cool front approaches from the WNW.
The front and accompanying wind shift to the N-NE wind drops through
the waters Wed morning into Wed aftn with high pressure pushing into
the Great Lakes and OH Valley. This will maintain a NE to E flow
later Wed and Thu. Weak front/sfc trough will meander over/just
south of the area for the late week period, and will serve as the
focus for late day convection over the area late in the week and
through the weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Chances to add to an already wet month mainly tonight and Tue. June
has been another wet month at Richmond, the monthly total rainfall
through the 24th stands at 6.92" and already makes this the 9th
wettest June on record (2004 is wettest June with 9.93").

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     ANZ630>632-634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB/SAM
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...LKB/SAM
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MAM/TMG
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KRNK 280520
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
120 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A reinforcing cold front will move through on Tuesday into
Tuesday night, finally allowing high pressure to build with
improving conditions for the middle of the week. However, as the
center of high shifts to our east it will allow moisture to surge
back into the region, with showers and thunderstorms returning to
the forecast through the latter portion of the workweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 850 PM EDT Monday...

Went ahead and dropped the flash flood watch for Amherst. Do not
expect any additional heavy rain here through the night with
showers and storms starting to weaken. Expect this trend to
continue overnight but still enough instability where thunder is
possible with isolated to scattered coverage mainly east of the
Blue Ridge.

Expect deep convection east of the Flash Flood Watch area this
evening so have cancelled the watch early for most of the area.
Kept in Amherst due to ongoing heavy rains and thunderstorms. As
this moves east, expect the watch to be lifted prior to midnight.

Prior discussion from 650 pm...

Will continued the flash flood watch until moderate showers exit
those counties in the watch area. Heavier convection lined up from
the Blue Ridge near Amherst/Rockbridge, southwest to the NE TN
mountains. Slow movement to the southeast with some cells drifting
south. Expect a diminishing trend to the showers in the WV
mountains early with lingering small stream flooding possible.
Could see dropping the flash flood watch before midnight.

High-res models push the showers and storms east and southeast to
the Piedmont through midnight.

Previous valid discussion...

Convection will gradually subside overnight but the front will be
reluctant to clear the region to the east. This will keep a chance
of showers/storms in the forecast with a gradual tapering of POPs
from west to east overnight. Additional development of diurnal
convection on Tuesday may clip the far eastern portion of the
region but most of the activity tomorrow should be just to our
east.

Conditions will remain warm and muggy east of the Blue Ridge with low
temperatures tonight generally around 70 degrees, a bit more tolerable
west of the Ridge with lows in the low to mid 60s. Tuesday remains warm
with highs east in the mid to upper 80s, with low to mid 80s west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 339 PM EDT Monday...

By sunset Tuesday evening, a cold front will have progressed east of
the Blue Ridge and will be making steady progress to the southeast
across the Piedmont. Expect residual showers and thunderstorms to
occur ahead of the boundary, however convection will diminish
through the night as high pressure builds in from the north.

Despite the cold front progressing well south of our area, the drier
air associated with high pressure entering the area will remain
shallow, allowing somewhat more unstable to remain just off the
surface. As such, we can expect another round of spotty showers,
possibly a few thunderstorms, to develop across northern North
Carolina and extreme southern Virginia on Wednesday afternoon and
evening as a weak upper level disturbance pushes across the
Southeast.

High pressure over the lower Ohio River Valley will weaken on
Thursday as it advances east, allowing wind flow to shift more south
to southeasterly. The change in wind direction will allow deeper
moisture to return to the Piedmont region which, when combined with
strong afternoon heating, will support the development of spotty
showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. Best
rainfall chances will be along and east of the Blue Ridge, however
cannot rule out rainfall anywhere across our area. A few storms may
become severe, capable of producing damaging winds. In addition,
slow movement of cells within a moist atmosphere will be capable of
producing heavy rain. Convection will diminish Thursday evening as
sunset brings an end to daytime heating.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 339 PM EDT Monday...

Spotty, hit and miss showers and thunderstorms will remain in the
forecast for Friday afternoon and early evening, with convection
waning after sunset with the loss of daytime heating. Friday will
also mark the beginning of a warming trend as warmer air pools ahead
of a cold front approaching from the north.

Showers and thunderstorms will be more widespread on Saturday as the
cold front sinks south of the Ohio River toward the central
Appalachians/mid-Atlantic. While still plenty of time for the
scenario to change, believe the pattern is setting up for scattered
thunderstorms to develop during early afternoon across the
mountains, with cells then solidifying into a broken line during the
evening as they pass across the Piedmont. Weather forecast models
indicate sufficient instability for a few of the storms to become
severe and precipitable water values in the ballpark of 1.5 to
nearly 2 inches support the possibility of locally heavy rain.

The cold front will sink into northern North Carolina late Saturday
night into early Sunday, maintaining increased chances of showers
and thunderstorms across the forecast area. Believe the severe
thunderstorm threat will be significantly diminished due to
widespread cloud cover, however believe the threat of locally heavy
rain will remain, more so for locations south of Highway 460.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 120 AM EDT Tuesday...

Showers have moved east of the Blue Ridge with some lingering
showers that are fading over the piedmont. The cold front is
slowing moving southeast over the Ohio Valley and will push
through the area Tuesday afternoon. Since the area remains in the
warm moist sector and with a saturated ground, any clearing will
lead to areas of dense fog, especially across the mountains
(KBLF/KLWB/KBCB) through 12Z Tuesday. East of the Blue Ridge
(KROA/KLYH/KDAN) should keep at least a mid deck through the
night, but could see fog late if clearing takes place. Any fog
will lift by mid morning.

Low level winds are light and out of the west across the
mountains and remain southwesterly across the piedmont. As the
front enters the area, winds will back to the southwest for a few
hours in the afternoon. The best instabilities ahead of the front
will be across the coastal piedmont. A few showers may develop
over the piedmont in the afternoon, but the stronger storms will
be east of KLYH/KDAN. For this package, we will not have showers
at any airport.

Extended discussion...
The cold front sweeps east Tuesday night. Some airports may see
fog as ground remain saturated under clear skies. Other than some
late night valley fog, VFR conditions are expected.

Thursday into Saturday, the high will shift to the east and the
region will be within southerly flow again. This pattern will have
the potential of advecting moisture back into the area. Showers
and storms will again be possible yielding areas of sub-VFR
conditions.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 850 PM EDT Monday...

Expect runoff from earlier heavy rain to keep some creeks/rivers
swollen. However, the forecast is for keeping the rivers below
flood stage this time around.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS/WP
NEAR TERM...MBS/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...RCS
HYDROLOGY...JH/WP




000
FXUS61 KLWX 280132
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
932 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A surface trough will remain over the region through Tuesday,
shifting east as a cold front late Tuesday. High pressure will
build from the west through Wednesday, then Bermuda high pressure
will provide a south wind Thursday and Friday. The next cold
front crosses the area from the west Saturday, stalling over the
southern Mid-Atlantic Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 9pm, surface trough/cold front is stalling over central
VA and southern MD. It will remain roughly there until an upper
trough shifts across the area Tuesday. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms, which persist along this boundary, will continue to
shift northeast to southern MD through the rest of the evening
before diminishing after midnight. As noted previously, some
showers could linger through the night. Elsewhere, particularly in
clearer skies behind the cold front in NWrn zones, patchy fog
could develop. Lows upper 60s to low 70s with plenty of lingering
moisture.

Previous...
Surface trough will remain over eastern portions of the area
Tuesday morning, supporting at least isolated to scattered
showers. Meanwhile, cold front will approach from the west with
better mid-level height falls. Convection could activate along the
front during the afternoon as it cross the Blue Ridge and enters a
more moisture-rich environment. Deep layer shear is still
moderate, but a little stronger than today, so would think there
would be a better chance of isolated strong to severe storms. Weak
mid-level lapse rates will be a limiting factor. With stronger
flow, flooding should be less of a concern. Highs will reach the
mid to upper 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Cold front will push east Tuesday night, clearing any remaining
showers and storms. High pressure and drier air will build into
the area Wednesday and Wednesday night; however, upper level
troughing may result in some clouds. Temperatures and humidity
will be a little lower.

On Thursday, upper level troughing will persist, but low level
flow will become more southerly. This may support enough moisture
return to result in a few showers and storms, especially over the
higher terrain. Temperatures may bump up a couple degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The Mid-Atlantic region will be under the influence of an upper
level trough late in the week. Southerly flow ahead of a cold front
will continue through Friday, however temperatures will be near
or below normal with max temps in the low to mid 80s. Showers and
thunderstorms will be possible both days. The front will slowly
move eastward Friday night into Saturday. An additional cold front
will approach Saturday afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are
possible Saturday through Sunday. High pressure should build into
the region behind the second front Sunday night into Monday.
Showers may linger into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 01Z, a cold front is stalling over southern MD and central
VA. No more TSRA threats for the TAF sites this evening. Skies are
clearing behind the cold front with thick clouds along the frontal
zone. Fog is possible late tonight, most likely NW where clearing
will last longest. Maintained MVFR conds in 00Z TAFs except for
KCHO which is most climatologically prone for fog.

Scattered thunderstorms will develop along a cold front Tuesday
afternoon. DC/Baltimore the mostly likely affected area. There is
a better chance some of these storms could be strong. Generally
VFR with high pressure from late Tuesday night through Thursday
morning. Showers/storms may develop mainly SW of the metros
Thursday afternoon.

Sub-VFR conditions possible Thursday night-Saturday in SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Southerly channeling on southern MD waters ahead of a stalled cold
front over northern section of the Bay and Tidal Potomac. Local
gusty showers possible rest of the evening. Behind the front
early Wednesday, westerly winds may also be close to SCA levels.
With high pressure to the north, sub- SCA conditions are expected
Wednesday night- Thursday night.

Sub-SCA southerly winds expected on the waters Friday-Saturday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Heavy thunderstorms have tapered off/shifted southeast with the
cold front which is stalling over the central VA piedmont and
southern MD. locally heavy rain in showers/isolated thunderstorms
likely through the rest of the evening, but nothing that warrants
a flash flood watch.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ532-533-537-
     540-541.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ534-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/ADS
NEAR TERM...BAJ/ADS
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...HAS
AVIATION...BAJ/ADS/HAS
MARINE...BAJ/ADS/HAS
HYDROLOGY...lwx




000
FXUS61 KRNK 280102
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
902 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A reinforcing cold front will move through on Tuesday into
Tuesday night, finally allowing high pressure to build with
improving conditions for the middle of the week. However, as the
center of high shifts to our east it will allow moisture to surge
back into the region, with showers and thunderstorms returning to
the forecast through the latter portion of the workweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 850 PM EDT Monday...

Went ahead and dropped the flash flood watch for Amherst. Do not
expect any additional heavy rain here through the night with
showers and storms starting to weaken. Expect this trend to
continue overnight but still enough instability where thunder is
possible with isolated to scattered coverage mainly east of the
Blue Ridge.

Expect deep convection east of the Flash Flood Watch area this
evening so have cancelled the watch early for most of the area.
Kept in Amherst due to ongoing heavy rains and thunderstorms. As
this moves east, expect the watch to be lifted prior to midnight.

Prior discussion from 650 pm...

Will continued the flash flood watch until moderate showers exit
those counties in the watch area. Heavier convection lined up from
the Blue Ridge near Amherst/Rockbridge, southwest to the NE TN
mountains. Slow movement to the southeast with some cells drifting
south. Expect a diminishing trend to the showers in the WV
mountains early with lingering small stream flooding possible.
Could see dropping the flash flood watch before midnight.

High-res models push the showers and storms east and southeast to
the Piedmont through midnight.

Previous valid discussion...

Convection will gradually subside overnight but the front will be
reluctant to clear the region to the east. This will keep a chance
of showers/storms in the forecast with a gradual tapering of POPs
from west to east overnight. Additional development of diurnal
convection on Tuesday may clip the far eastern portion of the
region but most of the activity tomorrow should be just to our
east.

Conditions will remain warm and muggy east of the Blue Ridge with low
temperatures tonight generally around 70 degrees, a bit more tolerable
west of the Ridge with lows in the low to mid 60s. Tuesday remains warm
with highs east in the mid to upper 80s, with low to mid 80s west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 339 PM EDT Monday...

By sunset Tuesday evening, a cold front will have progressed east of
the Blue Ridge and will be making steady progress to the southeast
across the Piedmont. Expect residual showers and thunderstorms to
occur ahead of the boundary, however convection will diminish
through the night as high pressure builds in from the north.

Despite the cold front progressing well south of our area, the drier
air associated with high pressure entering the area will remain
shallow, allowing somewhat more unstable to remain just off the
surface. As such, we can expect another round of spotty showers,
possibly a few thunderstorms, to develop across northern North
Carolina and extreme southern Virginia on Wednesday afternoon and
evening as a weak upper level disturbance pushes across the
Southeast.

High pressure over the lower Ohio River Valley will weaken on
Thursday as it advances east, allowing wind flow to shift more south
to southeasterly. The change in wind direction will allow deeper
moisture to return to the Piedmont region which, when combined with
strong afternoon heating, will support the development of spotty
showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. Best
rainfall chances will be along and east of the Blue Ridge, however
cannot rule out rainfall anywhere across our area. A few storms may
become severe, capable of producing damaging winds. In addition,
slow movement of cells within a moist atmosphere will be capable of
producing heavy rain. Convection will diminish Thursday evening as
sunset brings an end to daytime heating.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 339 PM EDT Monday...

Spotty, hit and miss showers and thunderstorms will remain in the
forecast for Friday afternoon and early evening, with convection
waning after sunset with the loss of daytime heating. Friday will
also mark the beginning of a warming trend as warmer air pools ahead
of a cold front approaching from the north.

Showers and thunderstorms will be more widespread on Saturday as the
cold front sinks south of the Ohio River toward the central
Appalachians/mid-Atlantic. While still plenty of time for the
scenario to change, believe the pattern is setting up for scattered
thunderstorms to develop during early afternoon across the
mountains, with cells then solidifying into a broken line during the
evening as they pass across the Piedmont. Weather forecast models
indicate sufficient instability for a few of the storms to become
severe and precipitable water values in the ballpark of 1.5 to
nearly 2 inches support the possibility of locally heavy rain.

The cold front will sink into northern North Carolina late Saturday
night into early Sunday, maintaining increased chances of showers
and thunderstorms across the forecast area. Believe the severe
thunderstorm threat will be significantly diminished due to
widespread cloud cover, however believe the threat of locally heavy
rain will remain, more so for locations south of Highway 460.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 650 PM EDT Monday...

Will see mainly VFR conditions aside from tempo group of shra/tsra
mainly ROA/LYH/DAN this evening.

Overnight the showers should exit to the east. Looking at fog
formation likely, mainly over the west but even LYH/DAN could see
fog with moist ground.

Showers and storms will fire once again in the vicinity of the
lingering front in the east tomorrow but most models seems to keep
best threat east of LYH/DAN. Overall after any fog/stratus in the
morning expect VFR after 14-15z.

Extended discussion...
A secondary cold front moves through into Tuesday night. While
limited precipitation is expected, winds will become more gusty
from the northwest behind it, as compared to behind the Monday
cold front.

High pressure dominates with the weather pattern on Wednesday.
Other than some late night valley fog, VFR conditions are
expected.

Thursday into Saturday, the high will shift to the east and the
region will be within southerly flow again. This pattern will have
the potential of advecting moisture back into the area. Showers
and storms will again be possible yielding areas of sub-VFR
conditions.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 850 PM EDT Monday...

Expect runoff from earlier heavy rain to keep some creeks/rivers
swollen. However, the forecast is for keeping the rivers below
flood stage this time around.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS/WP
NEAR TERM...MBS/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...MBS/WP
HYDROLOGY...JH/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 280102
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
902 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A reinforcing cold front will move through on Tuesday into
Tuesday night, finally allowing high pressure to build with
improving conditions for the middle of the week. However, as the
center of high shifts to our east it will allow moisture to surge
back into the region, with showers and thunderstorms returning to
the forecast through the latter portion of the workweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 850 PM EDT Monday...

Went ahead and dropped the flash flood watch for Amherst. Do not
expect any additional heavy rain here through the night with
showers and storms starting to weaken. Expect this trend to
continue overnight but still enough instability where thunder is
possible with isolated to scattered coverage mainly east of the
Blue Ridge.

Expect deep convection east of the Flash Flood Watch area this
evening so have cancelled the watch early for most of the area.
Kept in Amherst due to ongoing heavy rains and thunderstorms. As
this moves east, expect the watch to be lifted prior to midnight.

Prior discussion from 650 pm...

Will continued the flash flood watch until moderate showers exit
those counties in the watch area. Heavier convection lined up from
the Blue Ridge near Amherst/Rockbridge, southwest to the NE TN
mountains. Slow movement to the southeast with some cells drifting
south. Expect a diminishing trend to the showers in the WV
mountains early with lingering small stream flooding possible.
Could see dropping the flash flood watch before midnight.

High-res models push the showers and storms east and southeast to
the Piedmont through midnight.

Previous valid discussion...

Convection will gradually subside overnight but the front will be
reluctant to clear the region to the east. This will keep a chance
of showers/storms in the forecast with a gradual tapering of POPs
from west to east overnight. Additional development of diurnal
convection on Tuesday may clip the far eastern portion of the
region but most of the activity tomorrow should be just to our
east.

Conditions will remain warm and muggy east of the Blue Ridge with low
temperatures tonight generally around 70 degrees, a bit more tolerable
west of the Ridge with lows in the low to mid 60s. Tuesday remains warm
with highs east in the mid to upper 80s, with low to mid 80s west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 339 PM EDT Monday...

By sunset Tuesday evening, a cold front will have progressed east of
the Blue Ridge and will be making steady progress to the southeast
across the Piedmont. Expect residual showers and thunderstorms to
occur ahead of the boundary, however convection will diminish
through the night as high pressure builds in from the north.

Despite the cold front progressing well south of our area, the drier
air associated with high pressure entering the area will remain
shallow, allowing somewhat more unstable to remain just off the
surface. As such, we can expect another round of spotty showers,
possibly a few thunderstorms, to develop across northern North
Carolina and extreme southern Virginia on Wednesday afternoon and
evening as a weak upper level disturbance pushes across the
Southeast.

High pressure over the lower Ohio River Valley will weaken on
Thursday as it advances east, allowing wind flow to shift more south
to southeasterly. The change in wind direction will allow deeper
moisture to return to the Piedmont region which, when combined with
strong afternoon heating, will support the development of spotty
showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. Best
rainfall chances will be along and east of the Blue Ridge, however
cannot rule out rainfall anywhere across our area. A few storms may
become severe, capable of producing damaging winds. In addition,
slow movement of cells within a moist atmosphere will be capable of
producing heavy rain. Convection will diminish Thursday evening as
sunset brings an end to daytime heating.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 339 PM EDT Monday...

Spotty, hit and miss showers and thunderstorms will remain in the
forecast for Friday afternoon and early evening, with convection
waning after sunset with the loss of daytime heating. Friday will
also mark the beginning of a warming trend as warmer air pools ahead
of a cold front approaching from the north.

Showers and thunderstorms will be more widespread on Saturday as the
cold front sinks south of the Ohio River toward the central
Appalachians/mid-Atlantic. While still plenty of time for the
scenario to change, believe the pattern is setting up for scattered
thunderstorms to develop during early afternoon across the
mountains, with cells then solidifying into a broken line during the
evening as they pass across the Piedmont. Weather forecast models
indicate sufficient instability for a few of the storms to become
severe and precipitable water values in the ballpark of 1.5 to
nearly 2 inches support the possibility of locally heavy rain.

The cold front will sink into northern North Carolina late Saturday
night into early Sunday, maintaining increased chances of showers
and thunderstorms across the forecast area. Believe the severe
thunderstorm threat will be significantly diminished due to
widespread cloud cover, however believe the threat of locally heavy
rain will remain, more so for locations south of Highway 460.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 650 PM EDT Monday...

Will see mainly VFR conditions aside from tempo group of shra/tsra
mainly ROA/LYH/DAN this evening.

Overnight the showers should exit to the east. Looking at fog
formation likely, mainly over the west but even LYH/DAN could see
fog with moist ground.

Showers and storms will fire once again in the vicinity of the
lingering front in the east tomorrow but most models seems to keep
best threat east of LYH/DAN. Overall after any fog/stratus in the
morning expect VFR after 14-15z.

Extended discussion...
A secondary cold front moves through into Tuesday night. While
limited precipitation is expected, winds will become more gusty
from the northwest behind it, as compared to behind the Monday
cold front.

High pressure dominates with the weather pattern on Wednesday.
Other than some late night valley fog, VFR conditions are
expected.

Thursday into Saturday, the high will shift to the east and the
region will be within southerly flow again. This pattern will have
the potential of advecting moisture back into the area. Showers
and storms will again be possible yielding areas of sub-VFR
conditions.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 850 PM EDT Monday...

Expect runoff from earlier heavy rain to keep some creeks/rivers
swollen. However, the forecast is for keeping the rivers below
flood stage this time around.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS/WP
NEAR TERM...MBS/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...MBS/WP
HYDROLOGY...JH/WP




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280042
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
842 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front slowly approaches from the west overnight. The front
will move across the region Tuesday and Tuesday night. Weak high
pressure builds in from the north Wednesday and Thursday as the
front stalls across the Carolinas. The next cold front approaches
the region late in the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Axis of incrsd moisture approaching the FA fm the W...out well to
the E of cdfnt moving through the OH vly. Hi res/near term guid
suggests that area of shras/isold tstms entering far nnw areas
attm...sloly progresses ESE through the overnight hrs. Highest POP
axis (30-50%) mnly centered fm SBY-AVC. POPs aob 20% confined to
far SE VA-cstl NE NC. Otrw...partly cloudy SE to vrb clds-mostly
cloudy elsw. Most lows 68-72F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Upper level trough digs into New England Tuesday with an attendant
cold front approaching from the northwest. Lead shortwave energy
progged to lift into the area Tuesday morning, with general model
consensus developing showers along the lee/thermal trough from the
Piedmont into central Virginia. Latest SREF guidance depicts an
anomalously moist air mass over the region, with precipitable waters
progged over 2 inches ahead of the surface trough (+2 standard
deviations). Instability will be limited in the morning, but will
keep mention of chance thunder. Theta-e advection and temperatures
warming into the low to mid 80`s will result in a marginally
unstable air mass Tuesday afternoon with thunder becoming more
widespread. However, with the strongest height falls north of the
region, only expect deep layer shear or 20 to 30 knots. Organized
convection is not expected. Likely POPs will be maintained generally
along and east of Interstate 95. The main threat will be locally
heavy rainfall due to the moist air mass and relatively weak flow.
Upper trough tracks over New England Tuesday night, pushing the
cold front through the local area. Height falls will result in
cyclogenesis just off the Northeast coast Tuesday night. As the
low wraps up, lingering mid level moisture across the northeast
forecast area in concert with strengthening forcing for ascent is
expected to produce scattered showers Tuesday evening. Best
chances will be from the Northern Neck to the Eastern Shore.
Drying late Tuesday night with a clearing sky inland. Partly
cloudy near the coast. Lows range from the mid to upper 60`s.

Broad, upper level trough pushes across the region Wednesday. The
frontal boundary expected to stall in the vicinity of northeast
North Carolina as high pressure builds in from the northwest.
Departing 70+ knot upper jet and enough lingering mid level moisture
(precipitable waters drop below 1.5 inches) should be enough for
scattered diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms. Highs
generally in the mid 80`s under a partly cloudy sky. Best chances
for measurable precipitation will be south of the Albemarle Sound
Wednesday night, but will keep mention of slight chance showers.
Lows generally in the low to mid 60`s.

Surface high pressure centers along the Mid-Atlantic coast Thursday
as the next upper level shortwave approaches from the west. Low
pressure progged to develop over the Southeast states with an
inverted trough extending northward over the central Appalachians.
Upslope flow and the approaching wave will result in showers and
thunderstorms over the higher terrain. Expect much of the forecast
area to remain dry, but will mention a slight chance POP for showers
coming off the higher terrain Thursday afternoon. Otherwise, near
seasonal temps again with highs forecast in the mid 80`s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Active northern stream upper trough will remain the dominant wx
feature through the medium range period. Resultant W-NW flow will
continue for the late week/Holiday weekend period.

Meanwhile, at the surface, a rather stagnant pattern looks to set up
with weak front/sfc trough dropping into the area and lingering over
the local area. Warm, moist airmass (PW AOA 2" from Friday night
through the weekend)  in tandem with the  boundary and numerous
disturbances riding across the area in WNW flow aloft will bring a
solid chance for mainly diurnally driven showers and tstms. Have
continued solid chance pops each day during this period.
Stronger front crosses the area by later Sunday into Monday.

For temps, pattern favors temperatures hovering right around climo
normal...with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Early morning lows
generally in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A cold front over the southern portion of the Great Lakes will move
southeast and pass through the Mid Atlantic States Tuesday night and
early Wednesday. An upper level disturbance and surface trough will
bring scattered showers and thunderstorms through Tuesday with
additional activity with the front Tuesday night.

As of 00Z...Scattered showers were on the radar across northern
portions of the area Monday evening. These will continue along with
a chance for thunderstorms overnight and into Tuesday. Conditions
are expected to generally be MVFR with the weather but a few hours
of IFR are forecast at RIC and SBY. Winds will be light and
generally from the south.

OUTLOOK...Precipitation will be mainly afternoon and evening showers
and thunderstorms. The chances decrease Wednesday and Thursday and
increase again Friday and Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Latest obs reflect sub-sca E-SE flow across the waters this aftn.
1024+mb sfc High remains centered off the New England and northern
Mid-Atlantic coast, while a cold front continues to slowly slide
across the Ohio valley.

Sfc high will continue to slowly drift east through tonight as a pre-
frontal trough approaches from the WNW. As noted in the near term
above, near-term CAMS becoming a bit less bullish on
convection...and are anticipating a bit more in the way of
clearing/cooling over the area later tonight. This, in tandem with
tightening pressure gradient w/pre-frontal trough building in will
likely result in at least a few hours of low end SCA winds in the
Ches Bay, and have accordingly hoisted SCA for tonight. Winds will
lessen a bit and become SSW as the high moves farther offshore and
the trough moves in Tuesday morning. SSW flow 10 to 15 kt continues
Tue into Tue ngt, as the (weak) cool front approaches from the WNW.
The front and accompanying wind shift to the N-NE wind drops through
the waters Wed morning into Wed aftn with high pressure pushing into
the Great Lakes and OH Valley. This will maintain a NE to E flow
later Wed and Thu. Weak front/sfc trough will meander over/just
south of the area for the late week period, and will serve as the
focus for late day convection over the area late in the week and
through the weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Chances to add to an already wet month mainly tonight and Tue. June
has been another wet month at Richmond, the monthly total rainfall
through the 24th stands at 6.92" and already makes this the 9th
wettest June on record (2004 is wettest June with 9.93").

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ630>632-634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB/SAM
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...LKB/SAM
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAM
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280038
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
838 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front slowly approaches from the west overnight. The front
will move across the region Tuesday and Tuesday night. Weak high
pressure builds in from the north Wednesday and Thursday as the
front stalls across the Carolinas. The next cold front approaches
the region late in the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Axis of incrsd moisture approaching the FA fm the W...out well to
the E of cdfnt moving through the OH vly. Hi res/near term guid
suggests that area of shras/isold tstms entering far nnw areas
attm...sloly progresses ESE through the overnight hrs. Highest POP
axis (30-50%) mnly centered fm SBY-AVC. POPs aob 20% confined to
far SE VA-cstl NE NC. Otrw...partly cloudy SE to vrb clds-mostly
cloudy elsw. Most lows 68-72F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Upper level trough digs into New England Tuesday with an attendant
cold front approaching from the northwest. Lead shortwave energy
progged to lift into the area Tuesday morning, with general model
consensus developing showers along the lee/thermal trough from the
Piedmont into central Virginia. Latest SREF guidance depicts an
anomalously moist air mass over the region, with precipitable waters
progged over 2 inches ahead of the surface trough (+2 standard
deviations). Instability will be limited in the morning, but will
keep mention of chance thunder. Theta-e advection and temperatures
warming into the low to mid 80`s will result in a marginally
unstable air mass Tuesday afternoon with thunder becoming more
widespread. However, with the strongest height falls north of the
region, only expect deep layer shear or 20 to 30 knots. Organized
convection is not expected. Likely POPs will be maintained generally
along and east of Interstate 95. The main threat will be locally
heavy rainfall due to the moist air mass and relatively weak flow.
Upper trough tracks over New England Tuesday night, pushing the
cold front through the local area. Height falls will result in
cyclogenesis just off the Northeast coast Tuesday night. As the
low wraps up, lingering mid level moisture across the northeast
forecast area in concert with strengthening forcing for ascent is
expected to produce scattered showers Tuesday evening. Best
chances will be from the Northern Neck to the Eastern Shore.
Drying late Tuesday night with a clearing sky inland. Partly
cloudy near the coast. Lows range from the mid to upper 60`s.

Broad, upper level trough pushes across the region Wednesday. The
frontal boundary expected to stall in the vicinity of northeast
North Carolina as high pressure builds in from the northwest.
Departing 70+ knot upper jet and enough lingering mid level moisture
(precipitable waters drop below 1.5 inches) should be enough for
scattered diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms. Highs
generally in the mid 80`s under a partly cloudy sky. Best chances
for measurable precipitation will be south of the Albemarle Sound
Wednesday night, but will keep mention of slight chance showers.
Lows generally in the low to mid 60`s.

Surface high pressure centers along the Mid-Atlantic coast Thursday
as the next upper level shortwave approaches from the west. Low
pressure progged to develop over the Southeast states with an
inverted trough extending northward over the central Appalachians.
Upslope flow and the approaching wave will result in showers and
thunderstorms over the higher terrain. Expect much of the forecast
area to remain dry, but will mention a slight chance POP for showers
coming off the higher terrain Thursday afternoon. Otherwise, near
seasonal temps again with highs forecast in the mid 80`s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Active northern stream upper trough will remain the dominant wx
feature through the medium range period. Resultant W-NW flow will
continue for the late week/Holiday weekend period.

Meanwhile, at the surface, a rather stagnant pattern looks to set up
with weak front/sfc trough dropping into the area and lingering over
the local area. Warm, moist airmass (PW AOA 2" from Friday night
through the weekend)  in tandem with the  boundary and numerous
disturbances riding across the area in WNW flow aloft will bring a
solid chance for mainly diurnally driven showers and tstms. Have
continued solid chance pops each day during this period.
Stronger front crosses the area by later Sunday into Monday.

For temps, pattern favors temperatures hovering right around climo
normal...with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Early morning lows
generally in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through this evening at all sites.
Showers and thunderstorms over the mountains will attempt to move
into the region tonight, however it is unclear how widespread they
will become. If nothing else, ceilings will lower overnight at all
sites and may become MVFR late tonight into Tuesday. There are
chances for thunderstorms late tonight, but confidence is not high
enough to include in any terminal at this time. Best chance for
thunder would be at RIC. Continued MVFR or lower end VFR on Tuesday.

OUTLOOK...Chances for thunderstorms will continue Tuesday afternoon
into Wednesday as the front moves slowly through the area. This
front remains just south of the area through Friday, and with that a
chance for showers and storms, especially at ORF and ECG.

&&

.MARINE...
Latest obs reflect sub-sca E-SE flow across the waters this aftn.
1024+mb sfc High remains centered off the New England and northern
Mid-Atlantic coast, while a cold front continues to slowly slide
across the Ohio valley.

Sfc high will continue to slowly drift east through tonight as a pre-
frontal trough approaches from the WNW. As noted in the near term
above, near-term CAMS becoming a bit less bullish on
convection...and are anticipating a bit more in the way of
clearing/cooling over the area later tonight. This, in tandem with
tightening pressure gradient w/pre-frontal trough building in will
likely result in at least a few hours of low end SCA winds in the
Ches Bay, and have accordingly hoisted SCA for tonight. Winds will
lessen a bit and become SSW as the high moves farther offshore and
the trough moves in Tuesday morning. SSW flow 10 to 15 kt continues
Tue into Tue ngt, as the (weak) cool front approaches from the WNW.
The front and accompanying wind shift to the N-NE wind drops through
the waters Wed morning into Wed aftn with high pressure pushing into
the Great Lakes and OH Valley. This will maintain a NE to E flow
later Wed and Thu. Weak front/sfc trough will meander over/just
south of the area for the late week period, and will serve as the
focus for late day convection over the area late in the week and
through the weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Chances to add to an already wet month mainly tonight and Tue. June
has been another wet month at Richmond, the monthly total rainfall
through the 24th stands at 6.92" and already makes this the 9th
wettest June on record (2004 is wettest June with 9.93").

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ630>632-634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB/SAM
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...LKB/SAM
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...MAM
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KRNK 272354
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
754 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving cold front will cross the region tonight and bring
thunderstorms with heavy rain. Another reinforcing cold front
will move through on Tuesday into Tuesday night, finally allowing
high pressure to build with improving conditions for the middle of
the week. However, as the center of high shifts to our east it
will allow moisture to surge back into the region, with showers
and thunderstorms returning to the forecast through the latter
portion of the workweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 750 PM EDT Monday...

Expect deep convection east of the Flash Flood Watch area this
evening so have cancelled the watch early for most of the area.
Kept in Amherst due to ongoing heavy rains and thunderstorms. As
this moves east, expect the watch to be lifted prior to midnight.

Prior discussion from 650 pm...

Will continued the flash flood watch until moderate showers exit
those counties in the watch area. Heavier convection lined up from
the Blue Ridge near Amherst/Rockbridge, southwest to the NE TN
mountains. Slow movement to the southeast with some cells drifting
south. Expect a diminishing trend to the showers in the WV
mountains early with lingering small stream flooding possible.
Could see dropping the flash flood watch before midnight.

High-res models push the showers and storms east and southeast to
the Piedmont through midnight.

Previous valid discussion...

Convection will gradually subside overnight but the front will be
reluctant to clear the region to the east. This will keep a chance
of showers/storms in the forecast with a gradual tapering of POPs
from west to east overnight. Additional development of diurnal
convection on Tuesday may clip the far eastern portion of the
region but most of the activity tomorrow should be just to our
east.

Conditions will remain warm and muggy east of the Blue Ridge with low
temperatures tonight generally around 70 degrees, a bit more tolerable
west of the Ridge with lows in the low to mid 60s. Tuesday remains warm
with highs east in the mid to upper 80s, with low to mid 80s west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 339 PM EDT Monday...

By sunset Tuesday evening, a cold front will have progressed east of
the Blue Ridge and will be making steady progress to the southeast
across the Piedmont. Expect residual showers and thunderstorms to
occur ahead of the boundary, however convection will diminish
through the night as high pressure builds in from the north.

Despite the cold front progressing well south of our area, the drier
air associated with high pressure entering the area will remain
shallow, allowing somewhat more unstable to remain just off the
surface. As such, we can expect another round of spotty showers,
possibly a few thunderstorms, to develop across northern North
Carolina and extreme southern Virginia on Wednesday afternoon and
evening as a weak upper level disturbance pushes across the
Southeast.

High pressure over the lower Ohio River Valley will weaken on
Thursday as it advances east, allowing wind flow to shift more south
to southeasterly. The change in wind direction will allow deeper
moisture to return to the Piedmont region which, when combined with
strong afternoon heating, will support the development of spotty
showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. Best
rainfall chances will be along and east of the Blue Ridge, however
cannot rule out rainfall anywhere across our area. A few storms may
become severe, capable of producing damaging winds. In addition,
slow movement of cells within a moist atmosphere will be capable of
producing heavy rain. Convection will diminish Thursday evening as
sunset brings an end to daytime heating.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 339 PM EDT Monday...

Spotty, hit and miss showers and thunderstorms will remain in the
forecast for Friday afternoon and early evening, with convection
waning after sunset with the loss of daytime heating. Friday will
also mark the beginning of a warming trend as warmer air pools ahead
of a cold front approaching from the north.

Showers and thunderstorms will be more widespread on Saturday as the
cold front sinks south of the Ohio River toward the central
Appalachians/mid-Atlantic. While still plenty of time for the
scenario to change, believe the pattern is setting up for scattered
thunderstorms to develop during early afternoon across the
mountains, with cells then solidifying into a broken line during the
evening as they pass across the Piedmont. Weather forecast models
indicate sufficient instability for a few of the storms to become
severe and precipitable water values in the ballpark of 1.5 to
nearly 2 inches support the possibility of locally heavy rain.

The cold front will sink into northern North Carolina late Saturday
night into early Sunday, maintaining increased chances of showers
and thunderstorms across the forecast area. Believe the severe
thunderstorm threat will be significantly diminished due to
widespread cloud cover, however believe the threat of locally heavy
rain will remain, more so for locations south of Highway 460.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 650 PM EDT Monday...

Will see mainly VFR conditions aside from tempo group of shra/tsra
mainly ROA/LYH/DAN this evening.

Overnight the showers should exit to the east. Looking at fog
formation likely, mainly over the west but even LYH/DAN could see
fog with moist ground.

Showers and storms will fire once again in the vicinity of the
lingering front in the east tomorrow but most models seems to keep
best threat east of LYH/DAN. Overall after any fog/stratus in the
morning expect VFR after 14-15z.

Extended discussion...
A secondary cold front moves through into Tuesday night. While
limited precipitation is expected, winds will become more gusty
from the northwest behind it, as compared to behind the Monday
cold front.

High pressure dominates with the weather pattern on Wednesday.
Other than some late night valley fog, VFR conditions are
expected.

Thursday into Saturday, the high will shift to the east and the
region will be within southerly flow again. This pattern will have
the potential of advecting moisture back into the area. Showers
and storms will again be possible yielding areas of sub-VFR
conditions.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 700 PM EDT Monday...

Threat of flash flooding continues early this evening but deeper
convection is starting to wane over the mountains. Still will have
to watch for small stream flooding especially in the
Greenbrier/Summers county area east toward the Alleghanys.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ035.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...MBS/WP
HYDROLOGY...JH/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 272354
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
754 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving cold front will cross the region tonight and bring
thunderstorms with heavy rain. Another reinforcing cold front
will move through on Tuesday into Tuesday night, finally allowing
high pressure to build with improving conditions for the middle of
the week. However, as the center of high shifts to our east it
will allow moisture to surge back into the region, with showers
and thunderstorms returning to the forecast through the latter
portion of the workweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 750 PM EDT Monday...

Expect deep convection east of the Flash Flood Watch area this
evening so have cancelled the watch early for most of the area.
Kept in Amherst due to ongoing heavy rains and thunderstorms. As
this moves east, expect the watch to be lifted prior to midnight.

Prior discussion from 650 pm...

Will continued the flash flood watch until moderate showers exit
those counties in the watch area. Heavier convection lined up from
the Blue Ridge near Amherst/Rockbridge, southwest to the NE TN
mountains. Slow movement to the southeast with some cells drifting
south. Expect a diminishing trend to the showers in the WV
mountains early with lingering small stream flooding possible.
Could see dropping the flash flood watch before midnight.

High-res models push the showers and storms east and southeast to
the Piedmont through midnight.

Previous valid discussion...

Convection will gradually subside overnight but the front will be
reluctant to clear the region to the east. This will keep a chance
of showers/storms in the forecast with a gradual tapering of POPs
from west to east overnight. Additional development of diurnal
convection on Tuesday may clip the far eastern portion of the
region but most of the activity tomorrow should be just to our
east.

Conditions will remain warm and muggy east of the Blue Ridge with low
temperatures tonight generally around 70 degrees, a bit more tolerable
west of the Ridge with lows in the low to mid 60s. Tuesday remains warm
with highs east in the mid to upper 80s, with low to mid 80s west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 339 PM EDT Monday...

By sunset Tuesday evening, a cold front will have progressed east of
the Blue Ridge and will be making steady progress to the southeast
across the Piedmont. Expect residual showers and thunderstorms to
occur ahead of the boundary, however convection will diminish
through the night as high pressure builds in from the north.

Despite the cold front progressing well south of our area, the drier
air associated with high pressure entering the area will remain
shallow, allowing somewhat more unstable to remain just off the
surface. As such, we can expect another round of spotty showers,
possibly a few thunderstorms, to develop across northern North
Carolina and extreme southern Virginia on Wednesday afternoon and
evening as a weak upper level disturbance pushes across the
Southeast.

High pressure over the lower Ohio River Valley will weaken on
Thursday as it advances east, allowing wind flow to shift more south
to southeasterly. The change in wind direction will allow deeper
moisture to return to the Piedmont region which, when combined with
strong afternoon heating, will support the development of spotty
showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. Best
rainfall chances will be along and east of the Blue Ridge, however
cannot rule out rainfall anywhere across our area. A few storms may
become severe, capable of producing damaging winds. In addition,
slow movement of cells within a moist atmosphere will be capable of
producing heavy rain. Convection will diminish Thursday evening as
sunset brings an end to daytime heating.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 339 PM EDT Monday...

Spotty, hit and miss showers and thunderstorms will remain in the
forecast for Friday afternoon and early evening, with convection
waning after sunset with the loss of daytime heating. Friday will
also mark the beginning of a warming trend as warmer air pools ahead
of a cold front approaching from the north.

Showers and thunderstorms will be more widespread on Saturday as the
cold front sinks south of the Ohio River toward the central
Appalachians/mid-Atlantic. While still plenty of time for the
scenario to change, believe the pattern is setting up for scattered
thunderstorms to develop during early afternoon across the
mountains, with cells then solidifying into a broken line during the
evening as they pass across the Piedmont. Weather forecast models
indicate sufficient instability for a few of the storms to become
severe and precipitable water values in the ballpark of 1.5 to
nearly 2 inches support the possibility of locally heavy rain.

The cold front will sink into northern North Carolina late Saturday
night into early Sunday, maintaining increased chances of showers
and thunderstorms across the forecast area. Believe the severe
thunderstorm threat will be significantly diminished due to
widespread cloud cover, however believe the threat of locally heavy
rain will remain, more so for locations south of Highway 460.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 650 PM EDT Monday...

Will see mainly VFR conditions aside from tempo group of shra/tsra
mainly ROA/LYH/DAN this evening.

Overnight the showers should exit to the east. Looking at fog
formation likely, mainly over the west but even LYH/DAN could see
fog with moist ground.

Showers and storms will fire once again in the vicinity of the
lingering front in the east tomorrow but most models seems to keep
best threat east of LYH/DAN. Overall after any fog/stratus in the
morning expect VFR after 14-15z.

Extended discussion...
A secondary cold front moves through into Tuesday night. While
limited precipitation is expected, winds will become more gusty
from the northwest behind it, as compared to behind the Monday
cold front.

High pressure dominates with the weather pattern on Wednesday.
Other than some late night valley fog, VFR conditions are
expected.

Thursday into Saturday, the high will shift to the east and the
region will be within southerly flow again. This pattern will have
the potential of advecting moisture back into the area. Showers
and storms will again be possible yielding areas of sub-VFR
conditions.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 700 PM EDT Monday...

Threat of flash flooding continues early this evening but deeper
convection is starting to wane over the mountains. Still will have
to watch for small stream flooding especially in the
Greenbrier/Summers county area east toward the Alleghanys.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ035.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...MBS/WP
HYDROLOGY...JH/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 272304
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
704 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving cold front will cross the region tonight and bring
thunderstorms with heavy rain. Another reinforcing cold front
will move through on Tuesday into Tuesday night, finally allowing
high pressure to build with improving conditions for the middle of
the week. However, as the center of high shifts to our east it
will allow moisture to surge back into the region, with showers
and thunderstorms returning to the forecast through the latter
portion of the workweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 650 PM EDT Monday...

Will continued the flash flood watch until moderate showers exit
those counties in the watch area. Heavier convection lined up from
the Blue Ridge near Amherst/Rockbridge, southwest to the NE TN
mountains. Slow movement to the southeast with some cells drifting
south. Expect a diminishing trend to the showers in the WV
mountains early with lingering small stream flooding possible.
Could see dropping the flash flood watch before midnight.

High-res models push the showers and storms east and southeast to
the Piedmont through midnight.

Previous valid discussion...

Convection will gradually subside overnight but the front will be
reluctant to clear the region to the east. This will keep a chance
of showers/storms in the forecast with a gradual tapering of POPs
from west to east overnight. Additional development of diurnal
convection on Tuesday may clip the far eastern portion of the
region but most of the activity tomorrow should be just to our
east.

Conditions will remain warm and muggy east of the Blue Ridge with low
temperatures tonight generally around 70 degrees, a bit more tolerable
west of the Ridge with lows in the low to mid 60s. Tuesday remains warm
with highs east in the mid to upper 80s, with low to mid 80s west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 339 PM EDT Monday...

By sunset Tuesday evening, a cold front will have progressed east of
the Blue Ridge and will be making steady progress to the southeast
across the Piedmont. Expect residual showers and thunderstorms to
occur ahead of the boundary, however convection will diminish
through the night as high pressure builds in from the north.

Despite the cold front progressing well south of our area, the drier
air associated with high pressure entering the area will remain
shallow, allowing somewhat more unstable to remain just off the
surface. As such, we can expect another round of spotty showers,
possibly a few thunderstorms, to develop across northern North
Carolina and extreme southern Virginia on Wednesday afternoon and
evening as a weak upper level disturbance pushes across the
Southeast.

High pressure over the lower Ohio River Valley will weaken on
Thursday as it advances east, allowing wind flow to shift more south
to southeasterly. The change in wind direction will allow deeper
moisture to return to the Piedmont region which, when combined with
strong afternoon heating, will support the development of spotty
showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. Best
rainfall chances will be along and east of the Blue Ridge, however
cannot rule out rainfall anywhere across our area. A few storms may
become severe, capable of producing damaging winds. In addition,
slow movement of cells within a moist atmosphere will be capable of
producing heavy rain. Convection will diminish Thursday evening as
sunset brings an end to daytime heating.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 339 PM EDT Monday...

Spotty, hit and miss showers and thunderstorms will remain in the
forecast for Friday afternoon and early evening, with convection
waning after sunset with the loss of daytime heating. Friday will
also mark the beginning of a warming trend as warmer air pools ahead
of a cold front approaching from the north.

Showers and thunderstorms will be more widespread on Saturday as the
cold front sinks south of the Ohio River toward the central
Appalachians/mid-Atlantic. While still plenty of time for the
scenario to change, believe the pattern is setting up for scattered
thunderstorms to develop during early afternoon across the
mountains, with cells then solidifying into a broken line during the
evening as they pass across the Piedmont. Weather forecast models
indicate sufficient instability for a few of the storms to become
severe and precipitable water values in the ballpark of 1.5 to
nearly 2 inches support the possibility of locally heavy rain.

The cold front will sink into northern North Carolina late Saturday
night into early Sunday, maintaining increased chances of showers
and thunderstorms across the forecast area. Believe the severe
thunderstorm threat will be significantly diminished due to
widespread cloud cover, however believe the threat of locally heavy
rain will remain, more so for locations south of Highway 460.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 650 PM EDT Monday...

Will see mainly VFR conditions aside from tempo group of shra/tsra
mainly ROA/LYH/DAN this evening.

Overnight the showers should exit to the east. Looking at fog
formation likely, mainly over the west but even LYH/DAN could see
fog with moist ground.

Showers and storms will fire once again in the vicinity of the
lingering front in the east tomorrow but most models seems to keep
best threat east of LYH/DAN. Overall after any fog/stratus in the
morning expect VFR after 14-15z.

Extended discussion...
A secondary cold front moves through into Tuesday night. While
limited precipitation is expected, winds will become more gusty
from the northwest behind it, as compared to behind the Monday
cold front.

High pressure dominates with the weather pattern on Wednesday.
Other than some late night valley fog, VFR conditions are
expected.

Thursday into Saturday, the high will shift to the east and the
region will be within southerly flow again. This pattern will have
the potential of advecting moisture back into the area. Showers
and storms will again be possible yielding areas of sub-VFR
conditions.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 700 PM EDT Monday...

Threat of flash flooding continues early this evening but deeper
convection is starting to wane over the mountains. Still will have
to watch for small stream flooding especially in the
Greenbrier/Summers county area east toward the Alleghanys.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ007-
     009>014-018>020-022>024-035.
NC...None.
WV...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for WVZ042>044-
     507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...MBS/WP
HYDROLOGY...JH/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 272304
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
704 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving cold front will cross the region tonight and bring
thunderstorms with heavy rain. Another reinforcing cold front
will move through on Tuesday into Tuesday night, finally allowing
high pressure to build with improving conditions for the middle of
the week. However, as the center of high shifts to our east it
will allow moisture to surge back into the region, with showers
and thunderstorms returning to the forecast through the latter
portion of the workweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 650 PM EDT Monday...

Will continued the flash flood watch until moderate showers exit
those counties in the watch area. Heavier convection lined up from
the Blue Ridge near Amherst/Rockbridge, southwest to the NE TN
mountains. Slow movement to the southeast with some cells drifting
south. Expect a diminishing trend to the showers in the WV
mountains early with lingering small stream flooding possible.
Could see dropping the flash flood watch before midnight.

High-res models push the showers and storms east and southeast to
the Piedmont through midnight.

Previous valid discussion...

Convection will gradually subside overnight but the front will be
reluctant to clear the region to the east. This will keep a chance
of showers/storms in the forecast with a gradual tapering of POPs
from west to east overnight. Additional development of diurnal
convection on Tuesday may clip the far eastern portion of the
region but most of the activity tomorrow should be just to our
east.

Conditions will remain warm and muggy east of the Blue Ridge with low
temperatures tonight generally around 70 degrees, a bit more tolerable
west of the Ridge with lows in the low to mid 60s. Tuesday remains warm
with highs east in the mid to upper 80s, with low to mid 80s west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 339 PM EDT Monday...

By sunset Tuesday evening, a cold front will have progressed east of
the Blue Ridge and will be making steady progress to the southeast
across the Piedmont. Expect residual showers and thunderstorms to
occur ahead of the boundary, however convection will diminish
through the night as high pressure builds in from the north.

Despite the cold front progressing well south of our area, the drier
air associated with high pressure entering the area will remain
shallow, allowing somewhat more unstable to remain just off the
surface. As such, we can expect another round of spotty showers,
possibly a few thunderstorms, to develop across northern North
Carolina and extreme southern Virginia on Wednesday afternoon and
evening as a weak upper level disturbance pushes across the
Southeast.

High pressure over the lower Ohio River Valley will weaken on
Thursday as it advances east, allowing wind flow to shift more south
to southeasterly. The change in wind direction will allow deeper
moisture to return to the Piedmont region which, when combined with
strong afternoon heating, will support the development of spotty
showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. Best
rainfall chances will be along and east of the Blue Ridge, however
cannot rule out rainfall anywhere across our area. A few storms may
become severe, capable of producing damaging winds. In addition,
slow movement of cells within a moist atmosphere will be capable of
producing heavy rain. Convection will diminish Thursday evening as
sunset brings an end to daytime heating.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 339 PM EDT Monday...

Spotty, hit and miss showers and thunderstorms will remain in the
forecast for Friday afternoon and early evening, with convection
waning after sunset with the loss of daytime heating. Friday will
also mark the beginning of a warming trend as warmer air pools ahead
of a cold front approaching from the north.

Showers and thunderstorms will be more widespread on Saturday as the
cold front sinks south of the Ohio River toward the central
Appalachians/mid-Atlantic. While still plenty of time for the
scenario to change, believe the pattern is setting up for scattered
thunderstorms to develop during early afternoon across the
mountains, with cells then solidifying into a broken line during the
evening as they pass across the Piedmont. Weather forecast models
indicate sufficient instability for a few of the storms to become
severe and precipitable water values in the ballpark of 1.5 to
nearly 2 inches support the possibility of locally heavy rain.

The cold front will sink into northern North Carolina late Saturday
night into early Sunday, maintaining increased chances of showers
and thunderstorms across the forecast area. Believe the severe
thunderstorm threat will be significantly diminished due to
widespread cloud cover, however believe the threat of locally heavy
rain will remain, more so for locations south of Highway 460.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 650 PM EDT Monday...

Will see mainly VFR conditions aside from tempo group of shra/tsra
mainly ROA/LYH/DAN this evening.

Overnight the showers should exit to the east. Looking at fog
formation likely, mainly over the west but even LYH/DAN could see
fog with moist ground.

Showers and storms will fire once again in the vicinity of the
lingering front in the east tomorrow but most models seems to keep
best threat east of LYH/DAN. Overall after any fog/stratus in the
morning expect VFR after 14-15z.

Extended discussion...
A secondary cold front moves through into Tuesday night. While
limited precipitation is expected, winds will become more gusty
from the northwest behind it, as compared to behind the Monday
cold front.

High pressure dominates with the weather pattern on Wednesday.
Other than some late night valley fog, VFR conditions are
expected.

Thursday into Saturday, the high will shift to the east and the
region will be within southerly flow again. This pattern will have
the potential of advecting moisture back into the area. Showers
and storms will again be possible yielding areas of sub-VFR
conditions.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 700 PM EDT Monday...

Threat of flash flooding continues early this evening but deeper
convection is starting to wane over the mountains. Still will have
to watch for small stream flooding especially in the
Greenbrier/Summers county area east toward the Alleghanys.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ007-
     009>014-018>020-022>024-035.
NC...None.
WV...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for WVZ042>044-
     507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...MBS/WP
HYDROLOGY...JH/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 272009
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
409 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving cold front will cross the region tonight and bring
thunderstorms with heavy rain to the region. Another reinforcing cold
front will move through on Tuesday into Tuesday night, finally allowing
high pressure to build with improving conditions for the middle of the
week. However, as the center of high shifts to our east it will allow
moisture to surge back into the region, with showers and thunderstorms
returning to the forecast through the latter portion of the workweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 400 PM EDT Monday...

The Flash Flood Watch remains in effect until Midnight and was expanded
early this afternoon to include much of the region west of the Blue
Ridge.

Slow moving thunderstorms with heavy downpours have developed in
unstable air pooling ahead of an approaching cold front. Thus far
discrete heavy downpours have been the primary issue but the front is
still a good ways off to the northwest and additional storms with heavy
rain will affect the region into early tonight and flash flooding is
still a threat.

Convection will gradually subside overnight but the front will be
reluctant to clear the region to the east. This will keep a chance of
showers/storms in the forecast with a gradual tapering of POPs from
west to east overnight. Additional development of diurnal convection on
Tuesday may clip the far eastern portion of the region but most of the
activity tomorrow should be just to our east.

Conditions will remain warm and muggy east of the Blue Ridge with low
temperatures tonight generally around 70 degrees, a bit more tolerable
west of the Ridge with lows in the low to mid 60s. Tuesday remains warm
with highs east in the mid to upper 80s, with low to mid 80s west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 339 AM EDT Monday...

By sunset Tuesday evening, a cold front will have progressed east of
the Blue Ridge and will be making steady progress to the southeast
across the Piedmont. Expect residual showers and thunderstorms to
occur ahead of the boundary, however convection will diminish
through the night as high pressure builds in from the north.

Despite the cold front progressing well south of our area, the drier
air associated with high pressure entering the area will remain
shallow, allowing somewhat more unstable to remain just off the
surface. As such, we can expect another round of spotty showers,
possibly a few thunderstorms, to develop across northern North
Carolina and extreme southern Virginia on Wednesday afternoon and
evening as a weak upper level disturbance pushes across the
Southeast.

High pressure over the lower Ohio River Valley will weaken on
Thursday as it advances east, allowing wind flow to shift more south
to southeasterly. The change in wind direction will allow deeper
moisture to return to the Piedmont region which, when combined with
strong afternoon heating, will support the development of spotty
showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. Best
rainfall chances will be along and east of the Blue Ridge, however
cannot rule out rainfall anywhere across our area. A few storms may
become severe, capable of producing damaging winds. In addition,
slow movement of cells within a moist atmosphere will be capable of
producing heavy rain. Convection will diminish Thursday evening as
sunset brings an end to daytime heating.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 339 AM EDT Monday...

Spotty, hit and miss showers and thunderstorms will remain in the
forecast for Friday afternoon and early evening, with convection
waning after sunset with the loss of daytime heating. Friday will
also mark the beginning of a warming trend as warmer air pools ahead
of a cold front approaching from the north.

Showers and thunderstorms will be more widespread on Saturday as the
cold front sinks south of the Ohio River toward the central
Appalachians/mid-Atlantic. While still plenty of time for the
scenario to change, believe the pattern is setting up for scattered
thunderstorms to develop during early afternoon across the
mountains, with cells then solidifying into a broken line during the
evening as they pass across the Piedmont. Weather forecast models
indicate sufficient instability for a few of the storms to become
severe and precipitable water values in the ballpark of 1.5 to
nearly 2 inches support the possibility of locally heavy rain.

The cold front will sink into northern North Carolina late Saturday
night into early Sunday, maintaining increased chances of showers
and thunderstorms across the forecast area. Believe the severe
thunderstorm threat will be significantly diminished due to
widespread cloud cover, however believe the threat of locally heavy
rain will remain, more so for locations south of Highway 460.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 230PM EDT Monday...

Aviation conditions will generally be poor due to thunderstorms
through the first half of the TAF period. A slow moving cold front
is approaching from the north and very moist and unstable air is
helping to generate thunderstorms with heavy downpours. The storms
will be vicinity throughout the evening but also expect thunder at
the airfield for all sites at some point early in the period so
will use TEMPO groups to bracket the most likely period. Expect
visibility to drop briefly below one mile in downpours with a
ragged cig to IFR, along with some gusty winds.

The front will not clear the region tonight but activity looks to
become sparse enough to maintain dry conditions after about
Midnight. Showers and storms will fire once again in the vicinity
of the lingering front in the east tomorrow but this should be
after this TAF period and may be far enough east to avoid any
impact on TAF sites so will stay dry for the end of the period.

Extended discussion...
A secondary cold front moves through into Tuesday night. While
limited precipitation is expected, winds will become more gusty
from the northwest behind it, as compared to behind the Monday
cold front.

High pressure dominates with the weather pattern on Wednesday.
Other than some late night valley fog, VFR conditions are
expected.

Thursday into Friday, the high will shift to the east and the
region will be within southerly flow again. This pattern will have
the potential of advecting moisture back into the area. Showers
and storms will again be possible yielding areas of sub-VFR
conditions.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 339 AM EDT Monday...

Another round of slow moving showers and thunderstorms will be
likely especially into this evening across the region as a cold
front works through the area. Very deep moisture ahead of the
front should again make for heavier downpours with the showers and
storms. However rainfall totals should be much less than the event
seen last week with totals of perhaps of around an inch or so in
some locations. Still this in conjunction with very low flash
flood guidance and elevated streamflow, could combine to cause
flooding issues especially along creeks and streams including
areas of poor drainage. Therefore a Flash Flood Watch remain in
effect for most locations west of the Blue Ridge through Midnight.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ007-
     009>014-018>020-022>024-035.
NC...None.
WV...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for WVZ042>044-
     507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...MBS
HYDROLOGY...JH




000
FXUS61 KRNK 272009
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
409 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving cold front will cross the region tonight and bring
thunderstorms with heavy rain to the region. Another reinforcing cold
front will move through on Tuesday into Tuesday night, finally allowing
high pressure to build with improving conditions for the middle of the
week. However, as the center of high shifts to our east it will allow
moisture to surge back into the region, with showers and thunderstorms
returning to the forecast through the latter portion of the workweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 400 PM EDT Monday...

The Flash Flood Watch remains in effect until Midnight and was expanded
early this afternoon to include much of the region west of the Blue
Ridge.

Slow moving thunderstorms with heavy downpours have developed in
unstable air pooling ahead of an approaching cold front. Thus far
discrete heavy downpours have been the primary issue but the front is
still a good ways off to the northwest and additional storms with heavy
rain will affect the region into early tonight and flash flooding is
still a threat.

Convection will gradually subside overnight but the front will be
reluctant to clear the region to the east. This will keep a chance of
showers/storms in the forecast with a gradual tapering of POPs from
west to east overnight. Additional development of diurnal convection on
Tuesday may clip the far eastern portion of the region but most of the
activity tomorrow should be just to our east.

Conditions will remain warm and muggy east of the Blue Ridge with low
temperatures tonight generally around 70 degrees, a bit more tolerable
west of the Ridge with lows in the low to mid 60s. Tuesday remains warm
with highs east in the mid to upper 80s, with low to mid 80s west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 339 AM EDT Monday...

By sunset Tuesday evening, a cold front will have progressed east of
the Blue Ridge and will be making steady progress to the southeast
across the Piedmont. Expect residual showers and thunderstorms to
occur ahead of the boundary, however convection will diminish
through the night as high pressure builds in from the north.

Despite the cold front progressing well south of our area, the drier
air associated with high pressure entering the area will remain
shallow, allowing somewhat more unstable to remain just off the
surface. As such, we can expect another round of spotty showers,
possibly a few thunderstorms, to develop across northern North
Carolina and extreme southern Virginia on Wednesday afternoon and
evening as a weak upper level disturbance pushes across the
Southeast.

High pressure over the lower Ohio River Valley will weaken on
Thursday as it advances east, allowing wind flow to shift more south
to southeasterly. The change in wind direction will allow deeper
moisture to return to the Piedmont region which, when combined with
strong afternoon heating, will support the development of spotty
showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. Best
rainfall chances will be along and east of the Blue Ridge, however
cannot rule out rainfall anywhere across our area. A few storms may
become severe, capable of producing damaging winds. In addition,
slow movement of cells within a moist atmosphere will be capable of
producing heavy rain. Convection will diminish Thursday evening as
sunset brings an end to daytime heating.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 339 AM EDT Monday...

Spotty, hit and miss showers and thunderstorms will remain in the
forecast for Friday afternoon and early evening, with convection
waning after sunset with the loss of daytime heating. Friday will
also mark the beginning of a warming trend as warmer air pools ahead
of a cold front approaching from the north.

Showers and thunderstorms will be more widespread on Saturday as the
cold front sinks south of the Ohio River toward the central
Appalachians/mid-Atlantic. While still plenty of time for the
scenario to change, believe the pattern is setting up for scattered
thunderstorms to develop during early afternoon across the
mountains, with cells then solidifying into a broken line during the
evening as they pass across the Piedmont. Weather forecast models
indicate sufficient instability for a few of the storms to become
severe and precipitable water values in the ballpark of 1.5 to
nearly 2 inches support the possibility of locally heavy rain.

The cold front will sink into northern North Carolina late Saturday
night into early Sunday, maintaining increased chances of showers
and thunderstorms across the forecast area. Believe the severe
thunderstorm threat will be significantly diminished due to
widespread cloud cover, however believe the threat of locally heavy
rain will remain, more so for locations south of Highway 460.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 230PM EDT Monday...

Aviation conditions will generally be poor due to thunderstorms
through the first half of the TAF period. A slow moving cold front
is approaching from the north and very moist and unstable air is
helping to generate thunderstorms with heavy downpours. The storms
will be vicinity throughout the evening but also expect thunder at
the airfield for all sites at some point early in the period so
will use TEMPO groups to bracket the most likely period. Expect
visibility to drop briefly below one mile in downpours with a
ragged cig to IFR, along with some gusty winds.

The front will not clear the region tonight but activity looks to
become sparse enough to maintain dry conditions after about
Midnight. Showers and storms will fire once again in the vicinity
of the lingering front in the east tomorrow but this should be
after this TAF period and may be far enough east to avoid any
impact on TAF sites so will stay dry for the end of the period.

Extended discussion...
A secondary cold front moves through into Tuesday night. While
limited precipitation is expected, winds will become more gusty
from the northwest behind it, as compared to behind the Monday
cold front.

High pressure dominates with the weather pattern on Wednesday.
Other than some late night valley fog, VFR conditions are
expected.

Thursday into Friday, the high will shift to the east and the
region will be within southerly flow again. This pattern will have
the potential of advecting moisture back into the area. Showers
and storms will again be possible yielding areas of sub-VFR
conditions.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 339 AM EDT Monday...

Another round of slow moving showers and thunderstorms will be
likely especially into this evening across the region as a cold
front works through the area. Very deep moisture ahead of the
front should again make for heavier downpours with the showers and
storms. However rainfall totals should be much less than the event
seen last week with totals of perhaps of around an inch or so in
some locations. Still this in conjunction with very low flash
flood guidance and elevated streamflow, could combine to cause
flooding issues especially along creeks and streams including
areas of poor drainage. Therefore a Flash Flood Watch remain in
effect for most locations west of the Blue Ridge through Midnight.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ007-
     009>014-018>020-022>024-035.
NC...None.
WV...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for WVZ042>044-
     507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...MBS
HYDROLOGY...JH




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271957
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
357 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front slowly approaches from the west tonight. The front will
move across the region Tuesday and Tuesday night. Weak high pressure
builds in from the north Wednesday and Thursday as the front stalls
across the Carolinas. The next cold front approaches the region late
in the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Latest mesoscale analysis depicts a stable air mass over the
region. Aloft, a ridge axis remains over the region with a warm
layer observed on thermal profiles above 850mb. Upstream showers
and thunderstorms over the higher terrain are having a difficult
time moving off the mountains into the Piedmont. Expect this trend
to continue through the afternoon as very little instability is
observed, even with a moist boundary layer.However,expect to see
an increase in mid level clouds from the west as the next system
approaches.

For tonight, a moist air mass west of the mountains will surge into
the area overnight as the ridge axis pushes offshore. Precipitable
waters will rapidly climb to 2.00+ inches. A cold front drops into
the Ohio Valley, with pressure falls along the lee side of the
mountains sharpening the thermal trough. Although better low level
forcing is expected in an increasingly moist air mass, warm air
aloft, a lack of appreciable forcing, and very little deep layer
shear will be limiting factors. Hi-res (convective allowing models)
guidance has had the same idea the past few runs with dissipating
showers/thunderstorms as they track into the Piedmont/central
Virginia overnight. More course resolution guidance pushes showers
through the stable air all the way to the coast. Will maintain
likely POPs over the far western Piedmont, but have followed hi-res
trends and have lowered POP`s overnight over central and eastern
Virginia. Expect only scattered showers with isolated thunder. Based
on the anomalously moist air mass and lack of storm motion, locally
heavy rainfall is possible under storms that do develop/move off the
higher terrain. With the trend away from overnight convection, have
lowered temperatures a few degrees. Lows forecast generally in
upper 60`s to near 70 under a mostly cloudy sky.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Upper level trough digs into New England Tuesday with an attendant
cold front approaching from the northwest. Lead shortwave energy
progged to lift into the area Tuesday morning, with general model
consensus developing showers along the lee/thermal trough from the
Piedmont into central Virginia. Latest SREF guidance depicts an
anomalously moist air mass over the region, with precipitable waters
progged over 2 inches ahead of the surface trough (+2 standard
deviations). Instability will be limited in the morning, but will
keep mention of chance thunder. Theta-e advection and temperatures
warming into the low to mid 80`s will result in a marginally
unstable air mass Tuesday afternoon with thunder becoming more
widespread. However, with the strongest height falls north of the
region, only expect deep layer shear or 20 to 30 knots. Organized
convection is not expected. Likely POPs will be maintained generally
along and east of Interstate 95. The main threat will be locally
heavy rainfall due to the moist air mass and relatively weak flow.
Upper trough tracks over New England Tuesday night, pushing the
cold front through the local area. Height falls will result in
cyclogenesis just off the Northeast coast Tuesday night. As the
low wraps up, lingering mid level moisture across the northeast
forecast area in concert with strengthening forcing for ascent is
expected to produce scattered showers Tuesday evening. Best
chances will be from the Northern Neck to the Eastern Shore.
Drying late Tuesday night with a clearing sky inland. Partly
cloudy near the coast. Lows range from the mid to upper 60`s.

Broad, upper level trough pushes across the region Wednesday. The
frontal boundary expected to stall in the vicinity of northeast
North Carolina as high pressure builds in from the northwest.
Departing 70+ knot upper jet and enough lingering mid level moisture
(precipitable waters drop below 1.5 inches) should be enough for
scattered diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms. Highs
generally in the mid 80`s under a partly cloudy sky. Best chances
for measurable precipitation will be south of the Albemarle Sound
Wednesday night, but will keep mention of slight chance showers.
Lows generally in the low to mid 60`s.

Surface high pressure centers along the Mid-Atlantic coast Thursday
as the next upper level shortwave approaches from the west. Low
pressure progged to develop over the Southeast states with an
inverted trough extending northward over the central Appalachians.
Upslope flow and the approaching wave will result in showers and
thunderstorms over the higher terrain. Expect much of the forecast
area to remain dry, but will mention a slight chance POP for showers
coming off the higher terrain Thursday afternoon. Otherwise, near
seasonal temps again with highs forecast in the mid 80`s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Active northern stream upper trough will remain the dominant wx
feature through the medium range period. Resultant W-NW flow will
continue for the late week/Holiday weekend period.

Meanwhile, at the surface, a rather stagnant pattern looks to set up
with weak front/sfc trough dropping into the area and lingering over
the local area. Warm, moist airmass (PW AOA 2" from Friday night
through the weekend)  in tandem with the  boundary and numerous
disturbances riding across the area in WNW flow aloft will bring a
solid chance for mainly diurnally driven showers and tstms. Have
continued solid chance pops each day during this period.
Stronger front crosses the area by later Sunday into Monday.

For temps, pattern favors temperatures hovering right around climo
normal...with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Early morning lows
generally in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through this evening at all sites.
Showers and thunderstorms over the mountains will attempt to move
into the region tonight, however it is unclear how widespread they
will become. If nothing else, ceilings will lower overnight at all
sites and may become MVFR late tonight into Tuesday. There are
chances for thunderstorms late tonight, but confidence is not high
enough to include in any terminal at this time. Best chance for
thunder would be at RIC. Continued MVFR or lower end VFR on Tuesday.

OUTLOOK...Chances for thunderstorms will continue Tuesday afternoon
into Wednesday as the front moves slowly through the area. This
front remains just south of the area through Friday, and with that a
chance for showers and storms, especially at ORF and ECG.

&&

.MARINE...
Latest obs reflect sub-sca E-SE flow across the waters this aftn.
1024+mb sfc High remains centered off the New England and northern
Mid-Atlantic coast, while a cold front continues to slowly slide
across the Ohio valley.

Sfc high will continue to slowly drift east through tonight as a pre-
frontal trough approaches from the WNW. As noted in the near term
above, near-term CAMS becoming a bit less bullish on
convection...and are anticipating a bit more in the way of
clearing/cooling over the area later tonight. This, in tandem with
tightening pressure gradient w/pre-frontal trough building in will
likely result in at least a few hours of low end SCA winds in the
Ches Bay, and have accordingly hoisted SCA for tonight. Winds will
lessen a bit and become SSW as the high moves farther offshore and
the trough moves in Tuesday morning. SSW flow 10 to 15 kt continues
Tue into Tue ngt, as the (weak) cool front approaches from the WNW.
The front and accompanying wind shift to the N-NE wind drops through
the waters Wed morning into Wed aftn with high pressure pushing into
the Great Lakes and OH Valley. This will maintain a NE to E flow
later Wed and Thu. Weak front/sfc trough will meander over/just
south of the area for the late week period, and will serve as the
focus for late day convection over the area late in the week and
through the weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Chances to add to an already wet month mainly tonight and Tue. June
has been another wet month at Richmond, the monthly total rainfall
through the 24th stands at 6.92" and already makes this the 9th
wettest June on record (2004 is wettest June with 9.93").

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ630>632-634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB/SAM
NEAR TERM...LKB/SAM
SHORT TERM...LKB/SAM
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...MAM
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271947
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
347 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front slowly approaches from the west tonight. The front will
move across the region Tuesday and Tuesday night. Weak high pressure
builds in from the north Wednesday and Thursday as the front stalls
across the Carolinas. The next cold front approaches the region late
in the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Latest mesoscale analysis depicts a stable air mass over the
region. Aloft, a ridge axis remains over the region with a warm
layer observed on thermal profiles above 850mb. Upstream showers
and thunderstorms over the higher terrain are having a difficult
time moving off the mountains into the Piedmont. Expect this trend
to continue through the afternoon as very little instability is
observed, even with a moist boundary layer.However,expect to see
an increase in mid level clouds from the west as the next system
approaches.

For tonight, a moist air mass west of the mountains will surge into
the area overnight as the ridge axis pushes offshore. Precipitable
waters will rapidly climb to 2.00+ inches. A cold front drops into
the Ohio Valley, with pressure falls along the lee side of the
mountains sharpening the thermal trough. Although better low level
forcing is expected in an increasingly moist air mass, warm air
aloft, a lack of appreciable forcing, and very little deep layer
shear will be limiting factors. Hi-res (convective allowing models)
guidance has had the same idea the past few runs with dissipating
showers/thunderstorms as they track into the Piedmont/central
Virginia overnight. More course resolution guidance pushes showers
through the stable air all the way to the coast. Will maintain
likely POPs over the far western Piedmont, but have followed hi-res
trends and have lowered POP`s overnight over central and eastern
Virginia. Expect only scattered showers with isolated thunder. Based
on the anomalously moist air mass and lack of storm motion, locally
heavy rainfall is possible under storms that do develop/move off the
higher terrain. With the trend away from overnight convection, have
lowered temperatures a few degrees. Lows forecast generally in
upper 60`s to near 70 under a mostly cloudy sky.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Upper level trough digs into New England Tuesday with an attendant
cold front approaching from the northwest. Lead shortwave energy
progged to lift into the area Tuesday morning, with general model
consensus developing showers along the lee/thermal trough from the
Piedmont into central Virginia. Latest SREF guidance depicts an
anomalously moist air mass over the region, with precipitable waters
progged over 2 inches ahead of the surface trough (+2 standard
deviations). Instability will be limited in the morning, but will
keep mention of chance thunder. Theta-e advection and temperatures
warming into the low to mid 80`s will result in a marginally
unstable air mass Tuesday afternoon with thunder becoming more
widespread. However, with the strongest height falls north of the
region, only expect deep layer shear or 20 to 30 knots. Organized
convection is not expected. Likely POPs will be maintained generally
along and east of Interstate 95. Upper trough tracks over New
England Tuesday night, pushing the cold front through the local
area. Height falls will result in cyclogenesis just off the
Northeast coast Tuesday night. As the low wraps up, lingering mid
level moisture across the northeast forecast area in concert with
strengthening forcing for ascent is expected to produce scattered
showers Tuesday evening. Best chances will be from the Northern Neck
to the Eastern Shore. Drying late Tuesday night with a clearing sky
inland. Partly cloudy near the coast. Lows range from the mid to
upper 60`s.

Broad, upper level trough pushes across the region Wednesday. The
frontal boundary expected to stall in the vicinity of northeast
North Carolina as high pressure builds in from the northwest.
Departing 70+ knot upper jet and enough lingering mid level moisture
(precipitable waters drop below 1.5 inches) should be enough for
scattered diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms. Highs
generally in the mid 80`s under a partly cloudy sky. Best chances
for measurable precipitation will be south of the Albemarle Sound
Wednesday night, but will keep mention of slight chance showers.
Lows generally in the low to mid 60`s.

Surface high pressure centers along the Mid-Atlantic coast Thursday
as the next upper level shortwave approaches from the west. Low
pressure progged to develop over the Southeast states with an
inverted trough extending northward over the central Appalachians.
Upslope flow and the approaching wave will result in showers and
thunderstorms over the higher terrain. Expect much of the forecast
area to remain dry, but will mention a slight chance POP for showers
coming off the higher terrain Thursday afternoon. Otherwise, near
seasonal temps again with highs forecast in the mid 80`s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Active northern stream upper trough will remain the dominant wx
feature through the medium range period. Resultant W-NW flow will
continue for the late week/Holiday weekend period.

Meanwhile, at the surface, a rather stagnant pattern looks to set up
with weak front/sfc trough dropping into the area and lingering over
the local area. Warm, moist airmass (PW AOA 2" from Friday night
through the weekend)  in tandem with the  boundary and numerous
disturbances riding across the area in WNW flow aloft will bring a
solid chance for mainly diurnally driven showers and tstms. Have
continued solid chance pops each day during this period.
Stronger front crosses the area by later Sunday into Monday.

For temps, pattern favors temperatures hovering right around climo
normal...with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Early morning lows
generally in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through this evening at all sites.
Showers and thunderstorms over the mountains will attempt to move
into the region tonight, however it is unclear how widespread they
will become. If nothing else, ceilings will lower overnight at all
sites and may become MVFR late tonight into Tuesday. There are
chances for thunderstorms late tonight, but confidence is not high
enough to include in any terminal at this time. Best chance for
thunder would be at RIC. Continued MVFR or lower end VFR on Tuesday.

OUTLOOK...Chances for thunderstorms will continue Tuesday afternoon
into Wednesday as the front moves slowly through the area. This
front remains just south of the area through Friday, and with that a
chance for showers and storms, especially at ORF and ECG.

&&

.MARINE...
Latest obs reflect sub-sca E-SE flow across the waters this aftn.
1024+mb sfc High remains centered off the New England and northern
Mid-Atlantic coast, while a cold front continues to slowly slide
across the Ohio valley.

Sfc high will continue to slowly drift east through tonight as a pre-
frontal trough approaches from the WNW. As noted in the near term
above, near-term CAMS becoming a bit less bullish on
convection...and are anticipating a bit more in the way of
clearing/cooling over the area later tonight. This, in tandem with
tightening pressure gradient w/pre-frontal trough building in will
likely result in at least a few hours of low end SCA winds in the
Ches Bay, and have accordingly hoisted SCA for tonight. Winds will
lessen a bit and become SSW as the high moves farther offshore and
the trough moves in Tuesday morning. SSW flow 10 to 15 kt continues
Tue into Tue ngt, as the (weak) cool front approaches from the WNW.
The front and accompanying wind shift to the N-NE wind drops through
the waters Wed morning into Wed aftn with high pressure pushing into
the Great Lakes and OH Valley. This will maintain a NE to E flow
later Wed and Thu. Weak front/sfc trough will meander over/just
south of the area for the late week period, and will serve as the
focus for late day convection over the area late in the week and
through the weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Chances to add to an already wet month mainly tonight and Tue. June
has been another wet month at Richmond, the monthly total rainfall
through the 24th stands at 6.92" and already makes this the 9th
wettest June on record (2004 is wettest June with 9.93").

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ630>632-634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB/SAM
NEAR TERM...LKB/SAM
SHORT TERM...LKB/SAM
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...MAM
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271947
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
347 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front slowly approaches from the west tonight. The front will
move across the region Tuesday and Tuesday night. Weak high pressure
builds in from the north Wednesday and Thursday as the front stalls
across the Carolinas. The next cold front approaches the region late
in the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Latest mesoscale analysis depicts a stable air mass over the
region. Aloft, a ridge axis remains over the region with a warm
layer observed on thermal profiles above 850mb. Upstream showers
and thunderstorms over the higher terrain are having a difficult
time moving off the mountains into the Piedmont. Expect this trend
to continue through the afternoon as very little instability is
observed, even with a moist boundary layer.However,expect to see
an increase in mid level clouds from the west as the next system
approaches.

For tonight, a moist air mass west of the mountains will surge into
the area overnight as the ridge axis pushes offshore. Precipitable
waters will rapidly climb to 2.00+ inches. A cold front drops into
the Ohio Valley, with pressure falls along the lee side of the
mountains sharpening the thermal trough. Although better low level
forcing is expected in an increasingly moist air mass, warm air
aloft, a lack of appreciable forcing, and very little deep layer
shear will be limiting factors. Hi-res (convective allowing models)
guidance has had the same idea the past few runs with dissipating
showers/thunderstorms as they track into the Piedmont/central
Virginia overnight. More course resolution guidance pushes showers
through the stable air all the way to the coast. Will maintain
likely POPs over the far western Piedmont, but have followed hi-res
trends and have lowered POP`s overnight over central and eastern
Virginia. Expect only scattered showers with isolated thunder. Based
on the anomalously moist air mass and lack of storm motion, locally
heavy rainfall is possible under storms that do develop/move off the
higher terrain. With the trend away from overnight convection, have
lowered temperatures a few degrees. Lows forecast generally in
upper 60`s to near 70 under a mostly cloudy sky.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Upper level trough digs into New England Tuesday with an attendant
cold front approaching from the northwest. Lead shortwave energy
progged to lift into the area Tuesday morning, with general model
consensus developing showers along the lee/thermal trough from the
Piedmont into central Virginia. Latest SREF guidance depicts an
anomalously moist air mass over the region, with precipitable waters
progged over 2 inches ahead of the surface trough (+2 standard
deviations). Instability will be limited in the morning, but will
keep mention of chance thunder. Theta-e advection and temperatures
warming into the low to mid 80`s will result in a marginally
unstable air mass Tuesday afternoon with thunder becoming more
widespread. However, with the strongest height falls north of the
region, only expect deep layer shear or 20 to 30 knots. Organized
convection is not expected. Likely POPs will be maintained generally
along and east of Interstate 95. Upper trough tracks over New
England Tuesday night, pushing the cold front through the local
area. Height falls will result in cyclogenesis just off the
Northeast coast Tuesday night. As the low wraps up, lingering mid
level moisture across the northeast forecast area in concert with
strengthening forcing for ascent is expected to produce scattered
showers Tuesday evening. Best chances will be from the Northern Neck
to the Eastern Shore. Drying late Tuesday night with a clearing sky
inland. Partly cloudy near the coast. Lows range from the mid to
upper 60`s.

Broad, upper level trough pushes across the region Wednesday. The
frontal boundary expected to stall in the vicinity of northeast
North Carolina as high pressure builds in from the northwest.
Departing 70+ knot upper jet and enough lingering mid level moisture
(precipitable waters drop below 1.5 inches) should be enough for
scattered diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms. Highs
generally in the mid 80`s under a partly cloudy sky. Best chances
for measurable precipitation will be south of the Albemarle Sound
Wednesday night, but will keep mention of slight chance showers.
Lows generally in the low to mid 60`s.

Surface high pressure centers along the Mid-Atlantic coast Thursday
as the next upper level shortwave approaches from the west. Low
pressure progged to develop over the Southeast states with an
inverted trough extending northward over the central Appalachians.
Upslope flow and the approaching wave will result in showers and
thunderstorms over the higher terrain. Expect much of the forecast
area to remain dry, but will mention a slight chance POP for showers
coming off the higher terrain Thursday afternoon. Otherwise, near
seasonal temps again with highs forecast in the mid 80`s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Active northern stream upper trough will remain the dominant wx
feature through the medium range period. Resultant W-NW flow will
continue for the late week/Holiday weekend period.

Meanwhile, at the surface, a rather stagnant pattern looks to set up
with weak front/sfc trough dropping into the area and lingering over
the local area. Warm, moist airmass (PW AOA 2" from Friday night
through the weekend)  in tandem with the  boundary and numerous
disturbances riding across the area in WNW flow aloft will bring a
solid chance for mainly diurnally driven showers and tstms. Have
continued solid chance pops each day during this period.
Stronger front crosses the area by later Sunday into Monday.

For temps, pattern favors temperatures hovering right around climo
normal...with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Early morning lows
generally in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through this evening at all sites.
Showers and thunderstorms over the mountains will attempt to move
into the region tonight, however it is unclear how widespread they
will become. If nothing else, ceilings will lower overnight at all
sites and may become MVFR late tonight into Tuesday. There are
chances for thunderstorms late tonight, but confidence is not high
enough to include in any terminal at this time. Best chance for
thunder would be at RIC. Continued MVFR or lower end VFR on Tuesday.

OUTLOOK...Chances for thunderstorms will continue Tuesday afternoon
into Wednesday as the front moves slowly through the area. This
front remains just south of the area through Friday, and with that a
chance for showers and storms, especially at ORF and ECG.

&&

.MARINE...
Latest obs reflect sub-sca E-SE flow across the waters this aftn.
1024+mb sfc High remains centered off the New England and northern
Mid-Atlantic coast, while a cold front continues to slowly slide
across the Ohio valley.

Sfc high will continue to slowly drift east through tonight as a pre-
frontal trough approaches from the WNW. As noted in the near term
above, near-term CAMS becoming a bit less bullish on
convection...and are anticipating a bit more in the way of
clearing/cooling over the area later tonight. This, in tandem with
tightening pressure gradient w/pre-frontal trough building in will
likely result in at least a few hours of low end SCA winds in the
Ches Bay, and have accordingly hoisted SCA for tonight. Winds will
lessen a bit and become SSW as the high moves farther offshore and
the trough moves in Tuesday morning. SSW flow 10 to 15 kt continues
Tue into Tue ngt, as the (weak) cool front approaches from the WNW.
The front and accompanying wind shift to the N-NE wind drops through
the waters Wed morning into Wed aftn with high pressure pushing into
the Great Lakes and OH Valley. This will maintain a NE to E flow
later Wed and Thu. Weak front/sfc trough will meander over/just
south of the area for the late week period, and will serve as the
focus for late day convection over the area late in the week and
through the weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Chances to add to an already wet month mainly tonight and Tue. June
has been another wet month at Richmond, the monthly total rainfall
through the 24th stands at 6.92" and already makes this the 9th
wettest June on record (2004 is wettest June with 9.93").

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ630>632-634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB/SAM
NEAR TERM...LKB/SAM
SHORT TERM...LKB/SAM
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...MAM
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KLWX 271900
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
300 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A surface trough will remain over the region through Tuesday, with a
cold front pushing eastward late Tuesday. High pressure will
build to the north during the latter half of the week, with the
next cold front approaching this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The main concern through this evening will remain locally heavy
rainfall which could lead to flash flooding, especially
southwestern portions of the CWA which have seen heavy rainfall
over the past week. A Flash Flood Watch will remain in effect for
this area. The best instability and PWATs are roughly located
south of US 50 and west of US 15. Storms will have some movement,
but backbuilding and terrain interactions could lead to extended
periods of heavy rain. Am generally expecting a weakening trend to
the activity which pushes east of the aforementioned area,
although weak height falls may support at least scattered activity
crossing most of the area by this evening. Can`t rule out a
stronger pulse storm and wet microburst, but the overall severe
threat is minimal due to weak deep layer shear.

Showers and thunderstorms should begin to diminish after midnight,
but with the trough becoming centered over eastern portions of the
area, some showers could linger through the night. Elsewhere,
patchy fog could develop. Lows mid 60s to around 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Surface trough will remain over eastern portions of the area
Tuesday morning, supporting at least isolated to scattered
showers. Meanwhile, cold front will approach from the west with
better mid-level height falls. Convection could activate along the
front during the afternoon as it cross the Blue Ridge and enters a
more moisture-rich environment. Deep layer shear is still
moderate, but a little stronger than today, so would think there
would be a better chance of isolated strong to severe storms. Weak
mid-level lapse rates will be a limiting factor. With stronger
flow, flooding should be less of a concern. Highs will reach the
mid to upper 80s.

Front will push east Tuesday night, clearing any remaining showers
and storms. High pressure and drier air will build into the area
Wednesday and Wednesday night; however, upper level troughing may
result in some clouds. Temperatures and humidity will be a little
lower.

On Thursday, upper level troughing will persist, but low level
flow will become more southerly. This may support enough moisture
return to result in a few showers and storms, especially over the
higher terrain. Temperatures may bump up a couple degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The Mid-Atlantic region will be under the influence of an upper
level trough late in the week. Southerly flow ahead of a cold front
will continue through Friday, however temperatures will be near
or below normal with max temps in the low to mid 80s. Showers and
thunderstorms will be possible both days. The front will slowly
move eastward Friday night into Saturday. An additional cold front
will approach Saturday afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are
possible Saturday through Sunday. High pressure should build into
the region behind the second front Sunday night into Monday.
Showers may linger into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 19Z...convection approaching the terminals is rather
disorganized. CHO will have the best chance at seeing a stronger
thunderstorm; however thunder and brief heavy rain will be
possible at any terminal through about 00Z. Most activity should
be to the SE after that. Amendments are likely. Guidance indicates
fog -- possibly IFR -- developing late tonight. Have played closer
to climo (time/area) and limited to MVFR ATTM due to large
uncertainty.

Scattered thunderstorms will develop along a cold front Tuesday
afternoon. DC/Baltimore the mostly likely affected area. There is
a better chance some of these storms could be strong. Generally
VFR with high pressure from late Tuesday night through Thursday
morning. Showers/storms may develop mainly SW of the metros
Thursday afternoon.

Sub-VFR conditions possible Thursday night-Saturday in SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Southerly flow this afternoon and evening could gust to 20 kt at
times. SCA in effect for most of the waters. A cold front will
cross late Tuesday. There may be a window of SCA conditions ahead
of the front, but details of this will need to be narrowed down. Some
of the thunderstorms could also produce locally gusty winds.
Behind the front early Wednesday, westerly winds may also be
close to SCA levels. With high pressure to the north, sub-SCA
conditions are expected Wednesday night-Thursday night.

Sub-SCA southerly winds expected on the waters Friday-Saturday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Showers and thunderstorms are developing this afternoon and
evening, especially across the Potomac Highlands and Shenandoah
Valley. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect where FFG is between
1-1.5"/1 hr and 2-2.5"/3 hrs. With PWATs around 2 inches and slow
storm motions, and with spots within these counties still
vulnerable as they rebound from recent heavy rains, flash flooding
will be possible with any training or merging storms. Basin
average QPF totals are between a half to one inch, with any
thunderstorm having the potential to produce a quick 1-3 inches.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...Flash Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for VAZ025>027-
     029-036>038-503-504-507-508.
WV...Flash Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for WVZ055-502-
     505-506.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT
     Tuesday for ANZ539>541.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ531>533-538-
     542.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT
     Tuesday for ANZ543.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ534.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ536-
     537.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADS
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...HAS
AVIATION...ADS/HAS
MARINE...ADS/HAS
HYDROLOGY...Sears/ADS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 271900
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
300 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A surface trough will remain over the region through Tuesday, with a
cold front pushing eastward late Tuesday. High pressure will
build to the north during the latter half of the week, with the
next cold front approaching this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The main concern through this evening will remain locally heavy
rainfall which could lead to flash flooding, especially
southwestern portions of the CWA which have seen heavy rainfall
over the past week. A Flash Flood Watch will remain in effect for
this area. The best instability and PWATs are roughly located
south of US 50 and west of US 15. Storms will have some movement,
but backbuilding and terrain interactions could lead to extended
periods of heavy rain. Am generally expecting a weakening trend to
the activity which pushes east of the aforementioned area,
although weak height falls may support at least scattered activity
crossing most of the area by this evening. Can`t rule out a
stronger pulse storm and wet microburst, but the overall severe
threat is minimal due to weak deep layer shear.

Showers and thunderstorms should begin to diminish after midnight,
but with the trough becoming centered over eastern portions of the
area, some showers could linger through the night. Elsewhere,
patchy fog could develop. Lows mid 60s to around 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Surface trough will remain over eastern portions of the area
Tuesday morning, supporting at least isolated to scattered
showers. Meanwhile, cold front will approach from the west with
better mid-level height falls. Convection could activate along the
front during the afternoon as it cross the Blue Ridge and enters a
more moisture-rich environment. Deep layer shear is still
moderate, but a little stronger than today, so would think there
would be a better chance of isolated strong to severe storms. Weak
mid-level lapse rates will be a limiting factor. With stronger
flow, flooding should be less of a concern. Highs will reach the
mid to upper 80s.

Front will push east Tuesday night, clearing any remaining showers
and storms. High pressure and drier air will build into the area
Wednesday and Wednesday night; however, upper level troughing may
result in some clouds. Temperatures and humidity will be a little
lower.

On Thursday, upper level troughing will persist, but low level
flow will become more southerly. This may support enough moisture
return to result in a few showers and storms, especially over the
higher terrain. Temperatures may bump up a couple degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The Mid-Atlantic region will be under the influence of an upper
level trough late in the week. Southerly flow ahead of a cold front
will continue through Friday, however temperatures will be near
or below normal with max temps in the low to mid 80s. Showers and
thunderstorms will be possible both days. The front will slowly
move eastward Friday night into Saturday. An additional cold front
will approach Saturday afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are
possible Saturday through Sunday. High pressure should build into
the region behind the second front Sunday night into Monday.
Showers may linger into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 19Z...convection approaching the terminals is rather
disorganized. CHO will have the best chance at seeing a stronger
thunderstorm; however thunder and brief heavy rain will be
possible at any terminal through about 00Z. Most activity should
be to the SE after that. Amendments are likely. Guidance indicates
fog -- possibly IFR -- developing late tonight. Have played closer
to climo (time/area) and limited to MVFR ATTM due to large
uncertainty.

Scattered thunderstorms will develop along a cold front Tuesday
afternoon. DC/Baltimore the mostly likely affected area. There is
a better chance some of these storms could be strong. Generally
VFR with high pressure from late Tuesday night through Thursday
morning. Showers/storms may develop mainly SW of the metros
Thursday afternoon.

Sub-VFR conditions possible Thursday night-Saturday in SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Southerly flow this afternoon and evening could gust to 20 kt at
times. SCA in effect for most of the waters. A cold front will
cross late Tuesday. There may be a window of SCA conditions ahead
of the front, but details of this will need to be narrowed down. Some
of the thunderstorms could also produce locally gusty winds.
Behind the front early Wednesday, westerly winds may also be
close to SCA levels. With high pressure to the north, sub-SCA
conditions are expected Wednesday night-Thursday night.

Sub-SCA southerly winds expected on the waters Friday-Saturday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Showers and thunderstorms are developing this afternoon and
evening, especially across the Potomac Highlands and Shenandoah
Valley. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect where FFG is between
1-1.5"/1 hr and 2-2.5"/3 hrs. With PWATs around 2 inches and slow
storm motions, and with spots within these counties still
vulnerable as they rebound from recent heavy rains, flash flooding
will be possible with any training or merging storms. Basin
average QPF totals are between a half to one inch, with any
thunderstorm having the potential to produce a quick 1-3 inches.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...Flash Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for VAZ025>027-
     029-036>038-503-504-507-508.
WV...Flash Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for WVZ055-502-
     505-506.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT
     Tuesday for ANZ539>541.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ531>533-538-
     542.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT
     Tuesday for ANZ543.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ534.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ536-
     537.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADS
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...HAS
AVIATION...ADS/HAS
MARINE...ADS/HAS
HYDROLOGY...Sears/ADS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 271842
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
242 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will give way to a cold front that will move
through the region this afternoon and tonight. A reinforcing cold
front will cross the area Tuesday into Tuesday night. High
pressure briefly returns to the area on Wednesday, before shifting
east of the region, and opening the door to an increased plume of
moisture from the Gulf of Mexico for the rest of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1030 AM EDT Monday...

The 12z RNK sounding was still quite dry aloft, but water vapor
satellite imagery indicates there will be rapid moisture return
ahead of the approaching cold front. This will allow for heavy
downpours to occur and the current flash flood watch looks well
placed based on antecedent conditions. There is already some
thunderstorm activity this morning from Greenbrier WV into the
Alleghany Highlands of VA which is the area most vulnerable to
additional heavy rainfall.

The overall severe threat looks quite marginal with a relatively
weak wind field and a deep warm column working against large hail.
However, warm temperatures especially in the east will increase
instability and some cells may be able to approach severe limits.
So all in all the marginal Day 1 outlook from SPC looks to be on
target.

Will bump max temps up just a tad mainly in the east based on
upstream readings in the expected airmass this afternoon, which is
supported by some of the latest meso guidance.

previous afd...

00Z soundings were very dry above 5 kft and will saturate by this
afternoon. Models displaying PWATs above 2 inches this afternoon
east of the Blue Ridge. Wet antecedent conditions across SE WV
and slow movement of storms, rainfall amounts of a half of an inch
an hour could lead to a flood threat. With this in mind, a flash
flood watch has been posted for today across the Greenbrier Valley
and Alleghany Highlands.

There is also a marginal risk for severe weather this afternoon.
Instabilities are not the greatest, however areas east of the Blue
Ridge will see ample sunshine through most of the day. With this
heating and increasing moisture, strong to severe storms are
possible with wind being the primary threat.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 339 AM EDT Monday...

Upper level trough will move eastward across the Great Lakes on
Tuesday. At the surface, a cold front associated with digging
shortwave energy under the Great Lakes upper low will travel east
across the area. There is a narrow corridor of instability
developing by Tuesday afternoon ahead of the cold front. The day
two convective outlook highlights the potential for strong to
severe storms in the east with its marginal risk of gusty winds
and hail. High temperatures on Tuesday will range from the mid 70s
in the mountains to the mid 80s in the piedmont. Low level
northwest flow will create enough subsidence to dry out Tuesday
night. Low temperatures Tuesday night will vary from the mid 50s
in the northwest mountains to the mid 60s in the piedmont. Cool
high pressure will build into our area Wednesday. High
temperatures Wednesday will reach into the mid 60s in the west to
the mid 80s in the east. The high center will slowly slide east
and weaken Wednesday night into Thursday. Low temperatures
Wednesday night will drop into the lower 50s in the mountains to
the lower to mid 60s in the piedmont. There may even be a few 40s
in the colder valleys. Weak return flow looks to develop Thursday
afternoon with the chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms.
High temperatures on Thursday will be pleasant with readings from
the lower 70s in the northwest to the mid 80s in the southeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 339 AM EDT Monday...

The weather pattern will gradually transition to a wetter more
zonal trajectory by next weekend. Weak return flow continues
Thursday night into Friday ahead of the next upstream cold front
and subsequent digging shortwave energy. This along with a faint
passing impulse likely to lead to more diurnal nature showers and
thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening. However, it should be
warmer and more humid by Friday with highs rebounding into the
80s. Latest guidance continues to suggest a better potential for
more widespread showers Saturday into Sunday as the next front
drops in from the northwest and perhaps briefly slows up with more
shortwave energy approaching from the west. This could allow
deeper moisture south of the residual boundary to tag team with
lift heading in from the west including the upstream front to
create more convection Saturday...and somewhat of an overrunning
scenario into Day7. However appears deepest moisture and better
rainfall coverage across southern sections but quite uncertain
this far out so overall chance pops for now. Highs generally
seasonal except possibly a bit cooler on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 230PM EDT Monday...

Aviation conditions will generally be poor due to thunderstorms
through the first half of the TAF period. A slow moving cold front
is approaching from the north and very moist and unstable air is
helping to generate thunderstorms with heavy downpours. The storms
will be vicinity throughout the evening but also expect thunder at
the airfield for all sites at some point early in the period so
will use TEMPO groups to bracket the most likely period. Expect
visibility to drop briefly below one mile in downpours with a
ragged cig to IFR, along with some gusty winds.

The front will not clear the region tonight but activity looks to
become sparse enough to maintain dry conditions after about
Midnight. Showers and storms will fire once again in the vicinity
of the lingering front in the east tomorrow but this should be
after this TAF period and may be far enough east to avoid any
impact on TAF sites so will stay dry for the end of the period.

Extended discussion...
A secondary cold front moves through into Tuesday night. While
limited precipitation is expected, winds will become more gusty
from the northwest behind it, as compared to behind the Monday
cold front.

High pressure dominates with the weather pattern on Wednesday.
Other than some late night valley fog, VFR conditions are
expected.

Thursday into Friday, the high will shift to the east and the
region will be within southerly flow again. This pattern will have
the potential of advecting moisture back into the area. Showers
and storms will again be possible yielding areas of sub-VFR
conditions.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 339 AM EDT Monday...

Another round of slow moving showers and thunderstorms will be
likely especially this afternoon and evening across the region as
a cold front works through the area. Very deep moisture ahead of
the front should again make for heavier downpours with the showers
and storms. However rainfall totals should be much less than the
event seen last week with totals of perhaps of around an inch or
so in some locations. Still this in conjunction with very low
flash flood guidance and elevated streamflow, could combine to
cause flooding issues especially along creeks and streams
including areas of poor drainage. Therefore a flash flood watch
has been issued for parts of southeast West Va...the Va Highlands
and sections of the southern Shenandoah Valley for Monday into
Monday evening. Some added heavy rainfall may also affect
locations east of the Blue Ridge this evening where training of
storms could occur east into the Va Piedmont.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ007-
     009>014-018>020-022>024-035.
NC...None.
WV...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for WVZ042>044-
     507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...MBS/RCS
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...MBS/RCS
HYDROLOGY...JH




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271804
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
204 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure shifts off the Mid Atlantic coast today, as a cold
front slowly approaches from the west. The front will move across
the region Tuesday and Tuesday night. Weak high pressure builds in
from the north Wednesday and Thursday as the front stalls across
the Carolinas.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Latest GOES water vapor imagery depicts anticyclonic flow over
the Southeast states late this morning. The result is a mostly
sunny to sunny sky and dry conditions after some early morning
patchy fog. Temps have warmed into the mid to upper 70`s late
morning. Ongoing forecast is on track, so no changes made. Hi-
res guidance still indicating a weakening line of showers ahead
of the front tonight, while course resolution models keep the
showers together moving into the region. With the lack of upper
level support and warm temperatures aloft, the hi-res guidance may
be onto something. Have kept POPs unchanged and will await new
guidance before making adjustments.

Previous Discussion...
Today will be a transition from the dry/pleasant weather
yesterday when dew pts were primarily in the 50s to one with
increasing moisture and humidity as the low level flow veers
around to the south. However, still should have a dry day for most
areas as showers and tstms develop along the Mtns this aftn and
will be slow to push east into the CWA. Model consensus continues
to support a broken line of showers and tstms beginning to affect
the NW zones sometime late in the aftn, primarily after 20-21Z,
with the better chance for storms not making it to areas e and SE
of metro Richmond until after 00Z. Have made some minor
adjustments to the forecast to best reflect these trends. Highs
today will avg in the upper 80s well inland to the upper 70s to
lower 80s along the immediate coast (gradient not strong enough to
completely keep the typical backing of the wind direction to the
SE closer to the coast). Skies will start off mostly cloudy along
the coast and become mostly sunny later this morning. Farther
inland expect partly to mostly sunny skies for most of the day
with increasing clouds late over the NW.

Precipitable Water values surge rapidly to around 2.00" this
evening/overnight ahead of the approaching cold front. POPS ramp
up to likely most areas during the 00-06Z/tue timeframe, though
far SE VA and ne NC look to stay mainly dry through that time as
shortwave energy rides ENE along or slightly ahead of the cold
front. Severe threat for strong wind gusts appears to remain just
NW of the area closer to the main jet axis and where storm
coverage will be greater prior to sunset and coincident w/ optimal
instability. However, The high PW airmass will support this
potentially being a moderate to locally heavy rainfall event.
Furthermore, the flow aloft will not be that strong from the NW
and shifting to the W with low level flow from the SW, creating a
fairly slow storm motion and perhaps some training cells. Still not
enough confidence to issue a Flash Flood watch, as some of the
models depict storms diminishing after sunset w/ loss of daytime
heating while others shows coverage of storms maintaining through
the night. Will mention potential for heavy rain/flooding in the
HWO (mainly NW). Thunder chc greatest through 06z. Lows in the upr
60s to lwr 70s. QPF through 12Z Tue to avg 1.00-1.50" far NW and
0.50 to 1.00" or less elsewhere (but with locally higher amounts
possible).

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The boundary will be slow to push across the region Tuesday as
the upper trough and associated cold front slowly moves east.
Additional shortwave energy will maintain decent amount of lift
across the SE half of the region and have bumped even the morning
POPS to likely across this region (30-40% elsewhere). The
greatest threat for heavy rain will be across the SE. By aftn,
potential for some clearing which could lead to additional storm
development. Highs in the low to mid 80s except upper 70s to lower
80s SE sections with more widespread low clouds all day.

Convection slowly wanes Tuesday night as drier air arrives in the
wake of the front, but upper level shortwave passing across the
north may be enough to set off a secondary line of showers/tstms
Tue evening, especially across the north. Lows 65-70 F.

Broad, upper level trough pushes across the region Wed. This will
likely be enough of a trigger for sct convection to develop once
again mainly during the afternoon / evening hours, over the south
(probably becomes too dry over the north by aftn). Highs in the
mid 80s except upr 70s to lower 80s at the beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The cold front will have pushed well offshore by Wednesday morning
with high pressure building in and dominating the weather Wednesday
into Thursday. model hint at a few possible showers along the
 Sound Wednesday night into early Thursday...otherwise dry
through mid week with high in the low to mid 80s.

The weather pattern becomes more unsettled Friday as a broad upper
level trough dominates Thursday night into the holiday weekend. Have
increased POPS to high chance over much of the area with the
exception of the Eastern Shore Friday afternoon. Showers and storms
look to develop late after strong heating with highs Friday in the
mid to upper 80s. The pattern changes very little into the holiday
weekend with another front pushing though Saturday night into
Sunday. This will keep a good chance for showers and storms in the
forecast through the weekend. At some point POPS will likely have to
be increased for the timing of the front.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through this evening at all sites.
Showers and thunderstorms over the mountains will attempt to move
into the region tonight, however it is unclear how widespread they
will become. If nothing else, ceilings will lower overnight at all
sites and may become MVFR late tonight into Tuesday. There are
chances for thunderstorms late tonight, but confidence is not high
enough to include in any terminal at this time. Best chance for
thunder would be at RIC. Continued MVFR or lower end VFR on Tuesday.

OUTLOOK...Chances for thunderstorms will continue Tuesday afternoon
into Wednesday as the front moves slowly through the area. This
front remains just south of the area through Friday, and with that a
chance for showers and storms, especially at ORF and ECG.

&&

.MARINE...
High pres was cntrd just off the New England and nrn Mid Atlc cst
early this morning, while a cold front was pushing thru cntrl OH
and wrn KY. No headlines in the short term today thru Tue ngt. The
high will slide farther e into the Atlc during today, as a pre-
frntl trough approaches fm the wnw. Winds will become SE or S and
increase to 10 to 15 kt for this aftn into tngt. A band of showers
and some thunderstorms will approach the Ches Bay and coast later
tngt into Tue morning, as the pre-frntl trough slides into and
acrs the region. Winds will lessen a bit and become SSW as the
trough moves in. SSW flow 5 to 15 kt continues Tue into Tue ngt,
as the actual cold front approaches fm the wnw. The cold front and
wind shift to a N and NE wind drops through the waters Wed morning
into Wed aftn with high pressure pushing into the Grt Lks and OH
valley. This will maintain a NE to E flow Wed and Thu.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Chances to add to an already wet month mainly tonight and Tue. June
has been another wet month at Richmond, the monthly total rainfall
through the 24th stands at 6.92" and already makes this the 9th
wettest June on record (2004 is wettest June with 9.93").

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/SAM
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...JAO
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...TMG
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271804
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
204 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure shifts off the Mid Atlantic coast today, as a cold
front slowly approaches from the west. The front will move across
the region Tuesday and Tuesday night. Weak high pressure builds in
from the north Wednesday and Thursday as the front stalls across
the Carolinas.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Latest GOES water vapor imagery depicts anticyclonic flow over
the Southeast states late this morning. The result is a mostly
sunny to sunny sky and dry conditions after some early morning
patchy fog. Temps have warmed into the mid to upper 70`s late
morning. Ongoing forecast is on track, so no changes made. Hi-
res guidance still indicating a weakening line of showers ahead
of the front tonight, while course resolution models keep the
showers together moving into the region. With the lack of upper
level support and warm temperatures aloft, the hi-res guidance may
be onto something. Have kept POPs unchanged and will await new
guidance before making adjustments.

Previous Discussion...
Today will be a transition from the dry/pleasant weather
yesterday when dew pts were primarily in the 50s to one with
increasing moisture and humidity as the low level flow veers
around to the south. However, still should have a dry day for most
areas as showers and tstms develop along the Mtns this aftn and
will be slow to push east into the CWA. Model consensus continues
to support a broken line of showers and tstms beginning to affect
the NW zones sometime late in the aftn, primarily after 20-21Z,
with the better chance for storms not making it to areas e and SE
of metro Richmond until after 00Z. Have made some minor
adjustments to the forecast to best reflect these trends. Highs
today will avg in the upper 80s well inland to the upper 70s to
lower 80s along the immediate coast (gradient not strong enough to
completely keep the typical backing of the wind direction to the
SE closer to the coast). Skies will start off mostly cloudy along
the coast and become mostly sunny later this morning. Farther
inland expect partly to mostly sunny skies for most of the day
with increasing clouds late over the NW.

Precipitable Water values surge rapidly to around 2.00" this
evening/overnight ahead of the approaching cold front. POPS ramp
up to likely most areas during the 00-06Z/tue timeframe, though
far SE VA and ne NC look to stay mainly dry through that time as
shortwave energy rides ENE along or slightly ahead of the cold
front. Severe threat for strong wind gusts appears to remain just
NW of the area closer to the main jet axis and where storm
coverage will be greater prior to sunset and coincident w/ optimal
instability. However, The high PW airmass will support this
potentially being a moderate to locally heavy rainfall event.
Furthermore, the flow aloft will not be that strong from the NW
and shifting to the W with low level flow from the SW, creating a
fairly slow storm motion and perhaps some training cells. Still not
enough confidence to issue a Flash Flood watch, as some of the
models depict storms diminishing after sunset w/ loss of daytime
heating while others shows coverage of storms maintaining through
the night. Will mention potential for heavy rain/flooding in the
HWO (mainly NW). Thunder chc greatest through 06z. Lows in the upr
60s to lwr 70s. QPF through 12Z Tue to avg 1.00-1.50" far NW and
0.50 to 1.00" or less elsewhere (but with locally higher amounts
possible).

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The boundary will be slow to push across the region Tuesday as
the upper trough and associated cold front slowly moves east.
Additional shortwave energy will maintain decent amount of lift
across the SE half of the region and have bumped even the morning
POPS to likely across this region (30-40% elsewhere). The
greatest threat for heavy rain will be across the SE. By aftn,
potential for some clearing which could lead to additional storm
development. Highs in the low to mid 80s except upper 70s to lower
80s SE sections with more widespread low clouds all day.

Convection slowly wanes Tuesday night as drier air arrives in the
wake of the front, but upper level shortwave passing across the
north may be enough to set off a secondary line of showers/tstms
Tue evening, especially across the north. Lows 65-70 F.

Broad, upper level trough pushes across the region Wed. This will
likely be enough of a trigger for sct convection to develop once
again mainly during the afternoon / evening hours, over the south
(probably becomes too dry over the north by aftn). Highs in the
mid 80s except upr 70s to lower 80s at the beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The cold front will have pushed well offshore by Wednesday morning
with high pressure building in and dominating the weather Wednesday
into Thursday. model hint at a few possible showers along the
 Sound Wednesday night into early Thursday...otherwise dry
through mid week with high in the low to mid 80s.

The weather pattern becomes more unsettled Friday as a broad upper
level trough dominates Thursday night into the holiday weekend. Have
increased POPS to high chance over much of the area with the
exception of the Eastern Shore Friday afternoon. Showers and storms
look to develop late after strong heating with highs Friday in the
mid to upper 80s. The pattern changes very little into the holiday
weekend with another front pushing though Saturday night into
Sunday. This will keep a good chance for showers and storms in the
forecast through the weekend. At some point POPS will likely have to
be increased for the timing of the front.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through this evening at all sites.
Showers and thunderstorms over the mountains will attempt to move
into the region tonight, however it is unclear how widespread they
will become. If nothing else, ceilings will lower overnight at all
sites and may become MVFR late tonight into Tuesday. There are
chances for thunderstorms late tonight, but confidence is not high
enough to include in any terminal at this time. Best chance for
thunder would be at RIC. Continued MVFR or lower end VFR on Tuesday.

OUTLOOK...Chances for thunderstorms will continue Tuesday afternoon
into Wednesday as the front moves slowly through the area. This
front remains just south of the area through Friday, and with that a
chance for showers and storms, especially at ORF and ECG.

&&

.MARINE...
High pres was cntrd just off the New England and nrn Mid Atlc cst
early this morning, while a cold front was pushing thru cntrl OH
and wrn KY. No headlines in the short term today thru Tue ngt. The
high will slide farther e into the Atlc during today, as a pre-
frntl trough approaches fm the wnw. Winds will become SE or S and
increase to 10 to 15 kt for this aftn into tngt. A band of showers
and some thunderstorms will approach the Ches Bay and coast later
tngt into Tue morning, as the pre-frntl trough slides into and
acrs the region. Winds will lessen a bit and become SSW as the
trough moves in. SSW flow 5 to 15 kt continues Tue into Tue ngt,
as the actual cold front approaches fm the wnw. The cold front and
wind shift to a N and NE wind drops through the waters Wed morning
into Wed aftn with high pressure pushing into the Grt Lks and OH
valley. This will maintain a NE to E flow Wed and Thu.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Chances to add to an already wet month mainly tonight and Tue. June
has been another wet month at Richmond, the monthly total rainfall
through the 24th stands at 6.92" and already makes this the 9th
wettest June on record (2004 is wettest June with 9.93").

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/SAM
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...JAO
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...TMG
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KLWX 271437
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1037 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A surface trough will set up over the region today with a cold front
swinging through late Tuesday. High pressure will build in the wake
of the front mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
12Z soundings and latest hi-res models still generally support the
discussion below. Slow storm motions and weak steering flow
leading to locally excessive rainfall will be the main threat this
afternoon and early evening, mainly along and west of the Blue
Ridge. Some of the surrounding counties have low FFG values with
nearly equal chances of locally heavy rain. Have therefore
expanded the Flash Flood Watch.

There is also a small risk wet microbursts from any stronger
storms, which would likely have to be terrain-enhanced due to weak
deep layer shear.

Previous discussion follows...

For today, main concern will be the flooding potential, particularly
over portions of the Potomac Highlands and Shenandoah Valley. Overall
synopsis, a cold front/surface trough will slowly approach from
the west today. However, the upper level ridge will be slow to
weaken, resulting in minimal frontal progression into the area.
The surface trough will split the forecast area by this afternoon
with increasing southerly flow increasing warm air and moisture
advection. Surface convergence along this boundary combined with
moderate instability will act as the trigger point for convection
today lasting into tonight. As previously mentioned, main concern
from any convection will be heavy rain, resulting in potential
flash flooding. General agreement between the model guidance too
of the ThetaE axis aligning through the Potomac Highlands, with
values 350-360K and the PWAT axis with values of around 2.0
inches. Flow is on the weaker side, and would expect storm motions
of less than 20 MPH.

With the cold front weakening/still well to the west, and the
general trigger for convection today being diurnal influences,
expecting the precip to weaken as it pushes east of the Blue
Ridge. Could just be some weakening showers moving toward the I-95
corridor this evening. Hi-res models hint at lingering showers
over Southern Maryland for late tonight so will maintain PoPs to
account for this.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The aforementioned cold front finally reaches the western half of
the forecast area Tuesday, slowly swinging through the region,
though not clearing the area till the deepening upper level trough
sends it east by Thursday morning. On Tuesday, have increasing PoPs
throughout the day with the cold front acting as a trigger for
convection, especially late in the afternoon into the evening.
Unlike today with minimal upper level support, with the trough
digging south, shortwave energy swinging around the base will aid in
further enhancement of convection especially heading into Tuesday
night across eastern Maryland. The PWAT axis pushes east on Tuesday,
but can still expect above normal PWAT values, between 1.0 and 1.5
inches, this time Tues evening along and east of the I-95
corridor. However a more progression flow and with the
convection now expected over the eastern half of the area with higher
flash flood guidance, the threat will be on the lower end. Instead,
deep layer shear is expected to be higher during this time, 25 to 30
knots, which combined with moderate instability, will lead to the
potential for stronger thunderstorms, with strong winds being the
main threat. The main threat for these stronger storms will be the
Baltimore/DC metro areas and east.

The cold front pushes far enough east on Wednesday to allow high
pressure to being building in, resulting in mainly dry weather for
the entire area through Wed night. With the frontal passage, weak
cold air advection will nudge temps down slightly, though still
close to normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Transitory high pressure will provide a mostly quiet Thursday.
That won`t last long though, as another cold front will make its
way toward the Mid Atlantic. Even late Thursday or Thursday night,
there may be a shower or storm in a developing lee trough,
enhanced by terrain. Suspect there will be a diurnal component to
this convection as well. The better chance at rainfall,
unfortunately, comes during the holiday weekend as the front
arrives and does not appear to be in a hurry to leave thanks to
troffing along the east coast of the US.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Generally VFR conditions through today. Highest chance of
thunderstorms this afternoon at MRB/CHO. Lower confidence of the
thunderstorms reaching DC/Balt TAF sites today...and could just be
some weakening showers/storms early this evening in the vicinity.
Winds southerly 10 kts or less, becoming light and variable
tonight.

With the cold front finally moving through on Tuesday, thunderstorms
possible at all sites, especially DC and Balt sites during the
afternoon and evening. Some of these storms could produce stronger
winds. The front clears the region by Wed morning, with VFR
conditions then in place through Wed night.

VFR should generally prevail Thursday and Friday. There will be
diurnal showers and thunderstorms each day, more so on Friday than
Thursday, however at this point its too early to pinpoint areal
coverage or possible intensity.

&&

.MARINE...
Southerly winds today. SCA in effect for most of the waters for
marginal conditions this afternoon into this evening. Winds weaken
overnight. Increasing southerly flow right ahead of the cold front
on Tuesday could produce brief and marginal SCA gusts on the
Chesapeake Bay. Since its marginal at the moment, will hold off on
extending any SCA.

As high pressure builds in the wake of the cold front Wed, sub-SCA
conditions expected on all waters. That theme should last through
the end of the week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and
evening, especially across the Potomac Highlands and Shenandoah
Valley. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect where FFG is between
1-1.5"/1 hr and 2- 2.5"/3 hrs. With PWATs around 2 inches and slow
storm motions, and with spots within these counties still
vulnerable as they rebound from recent heavy rains, there looks to
be enough of an enhanced flash flooding threat to warrant the
issuance of the Watch. Basin average QPF totals are between a half
to one inch, with any thunderstorm having the potential to produce
a quick 1-3 inches.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Water levels are running around a half-foot above astronomical
normals at this time. Do not foresee an appreciable change over
the next couple of days.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for VAZ025>027-029-
     036>038-503-504-507-508.
WV...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for WVZ055-502-505-506.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT
     Tuesday for ANZ539>541.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT
     Tuesday for ANZ531>533-538-542.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT
     Tuesday for ANZ543.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT
     Tuesday for ANZ534.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EDT this
     evening for ANZ536-537.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Sears
NEAR TERM...Sears/ADS
SHORT TERM...Sears
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...Sears/ADS/HTS
MARINE...Sears/ADS/HTS
HYDROLOGY...Sears/ADS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...Sears/HTS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 271437
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1037 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A surface trough will set up over the region today with a cold front
swinging through late Tuesday. High pressure will build in the wake
of the front mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
12Z soundings and latest hi-res models still generally support the
discussion below. Slow storm motions and weak steering flow
leading to locally excessive rainfall will be the main threat this
afternoon and early evening, mainly along and west of the Blue
Ridge. Some of the surrounding counties have low FFG values with
nearly equal chances of locally heavy rain. Have therefore
expanded the Flash Flood Watch.

There is also a small risk wet microbursts from any stronger
storms, which would likely have to be terrain-enhanced due to weak
deep layer shear.

Previous discussion follows...

For today, main concern will be the flooding potential, particularly
over portions of the Potomac Highlands and Shenandoah Valley. Overall
synopsis, a cold front/surface trough will slowly approach from
the west today. However, the upper level ridge will be slow to
weaken, resulting in minimal frontal progression into the area.
The surface trough will split the forecast area by this afternoon
with increasing southerly flow increasing warm air and moisture
advection. Surface convergence along this boundary combined with
moderate instability will act as the trigger point for convection
today lasting into tonight. As previously mentioned, main concern
from any convection will be heavy rain, resulting in potential
flash flooding. General agreement between the model guidance too
of the ThetaE axis aligning through the Potomac Highlands, with
values 350-360K and the PWAT axis with values of around 2.0
inches. Flow is on the weaker side, and would expect storm motions
of less than 20 MPH.

With the cold front weakening/still well to the west, and the
general trigger for convection today being diurnal influences,
expecting the precip to weaken as it pushes east of the Blue
Ridge. Could just be some weakening showers moving toward the I-95
corridor this evening. Hi-res models hint at lingering showers
over Southern Maryland for late tonight so will maintain PoPs to
account for this.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The aforementioned cold front finally reaches the western half of
the forecast area Tuesday, slowly swinging through the region,
though not clearing the area till the deepening upper level trough
sends it east by Thursday morning. On Tuesday, have increasing PoPs
throughout the day with the cold front acting as a trigger for
convection, especially late in the afternoon into the evening.
Unlike today with minimal upper level support, with the trough
digging south, shortwave energy swinging around the base will aid in
further enhancement of convection especially heading into Tuesday
night across eastern Maryland. The PWAT axis pushes east on Tuesday,
but can still expect above normal PWAT values, between 1.0 and 1.5
inches, this time Tues evening along and east of the I-95
corridor. However a more progression flow and with the
convection now expected over the eastern half of the area with higher
flash flood guidance, the threat will be on the lower end. Instead,
deep layer shear is expected to be higher during this time, 25 to 30
knots, which combined with moderate instability, will lead to the
potential for stronger thunderstorms, with strong winds being the
main threat. The main threat for these stronger storms will be the
Baltimore/DC metro areas and east.

The cold front pushes far enough east on Wednesday to allow high
pressure to being building in, resulting in mainly dry weather for
the entire area through Wed night. With the frontal passage, weak
cold air advection will nudge temps down slightly, though still
close to normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Transitory high pressure will provide a mostly quiet Thursday.
That won`t last long though, as another cold front will make its
way toward the Mid Atlantic. Even late Thursday or Thursday night,
there may be a shower or storm in a developing lee trough,
enhanced by terrain. Suspect there will be a diurnal component to
this convection as well. The better chance at rainfall,
unfortunately, comes during the holiday weekend as the front
arrives and does not appear to be in a hurry to leave thanks to
troffing along the east coast of the US.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Generally VFR conditions through today. Highest chance of
thunderstorms this afternoon at MRB/CHO. Lower confidence of the
thunderstorms reaching DC/Balt TAF sites today...and could just be
some weakening showers/storms early this evening in the vicinity.
Winds southerly 10 kts or less, becoming light and variable
tonight.

With the cold front finally moving through on Tuesday, thunderstorms
possible at all sites, especially DC and Balt sites during the
afternoon and evening. Some of these storms could produce stronger
winds. The front clears the region by Wed morning, with VFR
conditions then in place through Wed night.

VFR should generally prevail Thursday and Friday. There will be
diurnal showers and thunderstorms each day, more so on Friday than
Thursday, however at this point its too early to pinpoint areal
coverage or possible intensity.

&&

.MARINE...
Southerly winds today. SCA in effect for most of the waters for
marginal conditions this afternoon into this evening. Winds weaken
overnight. Increasing southerly flow right ahead of the cold front
on Tuesday could produce brief and marginal SCA gusts on the
Chesapeake Bay. Since its marginal at the moment, will hold off on
extending any SCA.

As high pressure builds in the wake of the cold front Wed, sub-SCA
conditions expected on all waters. That theme should last through
the end of the week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and
evening, especially across the Potomac Highlands and Shenandoah
Valley. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect where FFG is between
1-1.5"/1 hr and 2- 2.5"/3 hrs. With PWATs around 2 inches and slow
storm motions, and with spots within these counties still
vulnerable as they rebound from recent heavy rains, there looks to
be enough of an enhanced flash flooding threat to warrant the
issuance of the Watch. Basin average QPF totals are between a half
to one inch, with any thunderstorm having the potential to produce
a quick 1-3 inches.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Water levels are running around a half-foot above astronomical
normals at this time. Do not foresee an appreciable change over
the next couple of days.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for VAZ025>027-029-
     036>038-503-504-507-508.
WV...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for WVZ055-502-505-506.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT
     Tuesday for ANZ539>541.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT
     Tuesday for ANZ531>533-538-542.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT
     Tuesday for ANZ543.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT
     Tuesday for ANZ534.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EDT this
     evening for ANZ536-537.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Sears
NEAR TERM...Sears/ADS
SHORT TERM...Sears
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...Sears/ADS/HTS
MARINE...Sears/ADS/HTS
HYDROLOGY...Sears/ADS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...Sears/HTS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 271434
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1034 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will give way to a cold front that will move
through the region this afternoon and tonight. A reinforcing cold
front will cross the area Tuesday into Tuesday night. High
pressure briefly returns to the area on Wednesday, before shifting
east of the region, and opening the door to an increased plume of
moisture from the Gulf of Mexico for the rest of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1030 AM EDT Monday...

The 12z RNK sounding was still quite dry aloft, but water vapor
satellite imagery indicates there will be rapid moisture return
ahead of the approaching cold front. This will allow for heavy
downpours to occur and the current flash flood watch looks well
placed based on antecedent conditions. There is already some
thunderstorm activity this morning from Greenbrier WV into the
Alleghany Highlands of VA which is the area most vulnerable to
additional heavy rainfall.

The overall severe threat looks quite marginal with a relatively
weak wind field and a deep warm column working against large hail.
However, warm temperatures especially in the east will increase
instability and some cells may be able to approach severe limits.
So all in all the marginal Day 1 outlook from SPC looks to be on
target.

Will bump max temps up just a tad mainly in the east based on
upstream readings in the expected airmass this afternoon, which is
supported by some of the latest meso guidance.

previous afd...

00Z soundings were very dry above 5 kft and will saturate by this
afternoon. Models displaying PWATs above 2 inches this afternoon
east of the Blue Ridge. Wet antecedent conditions across SE WV
and slow movement of storms, rainfall amounts of a half of an inch
an hour could lead to a flood threat. With this in mind, a flash
flood watch has been posted for today across the Greenbrier Valley
and Alleghany Highlands.

There is also a marginal risk for severe weather this afternoon.
Instabilities are not the greatest, however areas east of the Blue
Ridge will see ample sunshine through most of the day. With this
heating and increasing moisture, strong to severe storms are
possible with wind being the primary threat.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 339 AM EDT Monday...

Upper level trough will move eastward across the Great Lakes on
Tuesday. At the surface, a cold front associated with digging
shortwave energy under the Great Lakes upper low will travel east
across the area. There is a narrow corridor of instability
developing by Tuesday afternoon ahead of the cold front. The day
two convective outlook highlights the potential for strong to
severe storms in the east with its marginal risk of gusty winds
and hail. High temperatures on Tuesday will range from the mid 70s
in the mountains to the mid 80s in the piedmont. Low level
northwest flow will create enough subsidence to dry out Tuesday
night. Low temperatures Tuesday night will vary from the mid 50s
in the northwest mountains to the mid 60s in the piedmont. Cool
high pressure will build into our area Wednesday. High
temperatures Wednesday will reach into the mid 60s in the west to
the mid 80s in the east. The high center will slowly slide east
and weaken Wednesday night into Thursday. Low temperatures
Wednesday night will drop into the lower 50s in the mountains to
the lower to mid 60s in the piedmont. There may even be a few 40s
in the colder valleys. Weak return flow looks to develop Thursday
afternoon with the chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms.
High temperatures on Thursday will be pleasant with readings from
the lower 70s in the northwest to the mid 80s in the southeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 339 AM EDT Monday...

The weather pattern will gradually transition to a wetter more
zonal trajectory by next weekend. Weak return flow continues
Thursday night into Friday ahead of the next upstream cold front
and subsequent digging shortwave energy. This along with a faint
passing impulse likely to lead to more diurnal nature showers and
thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening. However, it should be
warmer and more humid by Friday with highs rebounding into the
80s. Latest guidance continues to suggest a better potential for
more widespread showers Saturday into Sunday as the next front
drops in from the northwest and perhaps briefly slows up with more
shortwave energy approaching from the west. This could allow
deeper moisture south of the residual boundary to tag team with
lift heading in from the west including the upstream front to
create more convection Saturday...and somewhat of an overrunning
scenario into Day7. However appears deepest moisture and better
rainfall coverage across southern sections but quite uncertain
this far out so overall chance pops for now. Highs generally
seasonal except possibly a bit cooler on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 715 AM EDT Monday...

A cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms back into the
forecast area by this afternoon along with periods of MVFR
ceilings, potentially worse for brief periods in thunderstorms.

Showers/thunderstorms should spread into the western part of the
CWA in the 16Z-20Z time frame, then east of the Blue Ridge toward
21Z. Visibilities will likely lower during convection but
timing confidence is not high enough to included in the TAFs at
this time. Gusty winds will also accompany the stronger storms
with gusts up to 40 mph.

Extended discussion... A secondary cold front moves through
Tuesday into Tuesday night. While limited precipitation is
expected, winds will become more gusty from the northwest behind
it, as compared to behind the Monday cold front.

High pressure dominates with the weather pattern on Wednesday.
Other than some late night valley fog, VFR conditions are
expected.

Thursday into Friday, the high will shift to the east and the
region will be within southerly flow again. This pattern will have
the potential of advecting moisture back into the area. Showers
and storms will again be possible yielding areas of sub-VFR
conditions.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 339 AM EDT Monday...

Another round of slow moving showers and thunderstorms will be
likely especially this afternoon and evening across the region as
a cold front works through the area. Very deep moisture ahead of
the front should again make for heavier downpours with the showers
and storms. However rainfall totals should be much less than the
event seen last week with totals of perhaps of around an inch or
so in some locations. Still this in conjunction with very low
flash flood guidance and elevated streamflow, could combine to
cause flooding issues especially along creeks and streams
including areas of poor drainage. Therefore a flash flood watch
has been issued for parts of southeast West Va...the Va Highlands
and sections of the southern Shenandoah Valley for Monday into
Monday evening. Some added heavy rainfall may also affect
locations east of the Blue Ridge this evening where training of
storms could occur east into the Va Piedmont.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for VAZ018>020-023-024.
NC...None.
WV...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for WVZ043-044-507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...MBS/RCS
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...RCS
HYDROLOGY...JH




000
FXUS61 KRNK 271434
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1034 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will give way to a cold front that will move
through the region this afternoon and tonight. A reinforcing cold
front will cross the area Tuesday into Tuesday night. High
pressure briefly returns to the area on Wednesday, before shifting
east of the region, and opening the door to an increased plume of
moisture from the Gulf of Mexico for the rest of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1030 AM EDT Monday...

The 12z RNK sounding was still quite dry aloft, but water vapor
satellite imagery indicates there will be rapid moisture return
ahead of the approaching cold front. This will allow for heavy
downpours to occur and the current flash flood watch looks well
placed based on antecedent conditions. There is already some
thunderstorm activity this morning from Greenbrier WV into the
Alleghany Highlands of VA which is the area most vulnerable to
additional heavy rainfall.

The overall severe threat looks quite marginal with a relatively
weak wind field and a deep warm column working against large hail.
However, warm temperatures especially in the east will increase
instability and some cells may be able to approach severe limits.
So all in all the marginal Day 1 outlook from SPC looks to be on
target.

Will bump max temps up just a tad mainly in the east based on
upstream readings in the expected airmass this afternoon, which is
supported by some of the latest meso guidance.

previous afd...

00Z soundings were very dry above 5 kft and will saturate by this
afternoon. Models displaying PWATs above 2 inches this afternoon
east of the Blue Ridge. Wet antecedent conditions across SE WV
and slow movement of storms, rainfall amounts of a half of an inch
an hour could lead to a flood threat. With this in mind, a flash
flood watch has been posted for today across the Greenbrier Valley
and Alleghany Highlands.

There is also a marginal risk for severe weather this afternoon.
Instabilities are not the greatest, however areas east of the Blue
Ridge will see ample sunshine through most of the day. With this
heating and increasing moisture, strong to severe storms are
possible with wind being the primary threat.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 339 AM EDT Monday...

Upper level trough will move eastward across the Great Lakes on
Tuesday. At the surface, a cold front associated with digging
shortwave energy under the Great Lakes upper low will travel east
across the area. There is a narrow corridor of instability
developing by Tuesday afternoon ahead of the cold front. The day
two convective outlook highlights the potential for strong to
severe storms in the east with its marginal risk of gusty winds
and hail. High temperatures on Tuesday will range from the mid 70s
in the mountains to the mid 80s in the piedmont. Low level
northwest flow will create enough subsidence to dry out Tuesday
night. Low temperatures Tuesday night will vary from the mid 50s
in the northwest mountains to the mid 60s in the piedmont. Cool
high pressure will build into our area Wednesday. High
temperatures Wednesday will reach into the mid 60s in the west to
the mid 80s in the east. The high center will slowly slide east
and weaken Wednesday night into Thursday. Low temperatures
Wednesday night will drop into the lower 50s in the mountains to
the lower to mid 60s in the piedmont. There may even be a few 40s
in the colder valleys. Weak return flow looks to develop Thursday
afternoon with the chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms.
High temperatures on Thursday will be pleasant with readings from
the lower 70s in the northwest to the mid 80s in the southeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 339 AM EDT Monday...

The weather pattern will gradually transition to a wetter more
zonal trajectory by next weekend. Weak return flow continues
Thursday night into Friday ahead of the next upstream cold front
and subsequent digging shortwave energy. This along with a faint
passing impulse likely to lead to more diurnal nature showers and
thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening. However, it should be
warmer and more humid by Friday with highs rebounding into the
80s. Latest guidance continues to suggest a better potential for
more widespread showers Saturday into Sunday as the next front
drops in from the northwest and perhaps briefly slows up with more
shortwave energy approaching from the west. This could allow
deeper moisture south of the residual boundary to tag team with
lift heading in from the west including the upstream front to
create more convection Saturday...and somewhat of an overrunning
scenario into Day7. However appears deepest moisture and better
rainfall coverage across southern sections but quite uncertain
this far out so overall chance pops for now. Highs generally
seasonal except possibly a bit cooler on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 715 AM EDT Monday...

A cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms back into the
forecast area by this afternoon along with periods of MVFR
ceilings, potentially worse for brief periods in thunderstorms.

Showers/thunderstorms should spread into the western part of the
CWA in the 16Z-20Z time frame, then east of the Blue Ridge toward
21Z. Visibilities will likely lower during convection but
timing confidence is not high enough to included in the TAFs at
this time. Gusty winds will also accompany the stronger storms
with gusts up to 40 mph.

Extended discussion... A secondary cold front moves through
Tuesday into Tuesday night. While limited precipitation is
expected, winds will become more gusty from the northwest behind
it, as compared to behind the Monday cold front.

High pressure dominates with the weather pattern on Wednesday.
Other than some late night valley fog, VFR conditions are
expected.

Thursday into Friday, the high will shift to the east and the
region will be within southerly flow again. This pattern will have
the potential of advecting moisture back into the area. Showers
and storms will again be possible yielding areas of sub-VFR
conditions.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 339 AM EDT Monday...

Another round of slow moving showers and thunderstorms will be
likely especially this afternoon and evening across the region as
a cold front works through the area. Very deep moisture ahead of
the front should again make for heavier downpours with the showers
and storms. However rainfall totals should be much less than the
event seen last week with totals of perhaps of around an inch or
so in some locations. Still this in conjunction with very low
flash flood guidance and elevated streamflow, could combine to
cause flooding issues especially along creeks and streams
including areas of poor drainage. Therefore a flash flood watch
has been issued for parts of southeast West Va...the Va Highlands
and sections of the southern Shenandoah Valley for Monday into
Monday evening. Some added heavy rainfall may also affect
locations east of the Blue Ridge this evening where training of
storms could occur east into the Va Piedmont.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for VAZ018>020-023-024.
NC...None.
WV...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for WVZ043-044-507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...MBS/RCS
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...RCS
HYDROLOGY...JH




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271421
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1021 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure shifts off the Mid Atlantic coast today, as a cold
front slowly approaches from the west. The front will move across
the region Tuesday and Tuesday night. Weak high pressure builds in
from the north Wednesday and Thursday as the front stalls across
the Carolinas.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Latest GOES water vapor imagery depicts anticyclonic flow over
the Southeast states late this morning. The result is a mostly
sunny to sunny sky and dry conditions after some early morning
patchy fog. Temps have warmed into the mid to upper 70`s late
morning. Ongoing forecast is on track, so no changes made. Hi-
res guidance still indicating a weakening line of showers ahead
of the front tonight, while course resolution models keep the
showers together moving into the region. With the lack of upper
level support and warm temperatures aloft, the hi-res guidance may
be onto something. Have kept POPs unchanged and will await new
guidance before making adjustments.

Previous Discussion...
Today will be a transition from the dry/pleasant weather
yesterday when dew pts were primarily in the 50s to one with
increasing moisture and humidity as the low level flow veers
around to the south. However, still should have a dry day for most
areas as showers and tstms develop along the Mtns this aftn and
will be slow to push east into the CWA. Model consensus continues
to support a broken line of showers and tstms beginning to affect
the NW zones sometime late in the aftn, primarily after 20-21Z,
with the better chance for storms not making it to areas e and SE
of metro Richmond until after 00Z. Have made some minor
adjustments to the forecast to best reflect these trends. Highs
today will avg in the upper 80s well inland to the upper 70s to
lower 80s along the immediate coast (gradient not strong enough to
completely keep the typical backing of the wind direction to the
SE closer to the coast). Skies will start off mostly cloudy along
the coast and become mostly sunny later this morning. Farther
inland expect partly to mostly sunny skies for most of the day
with increasing clouds late over the NW.

Precipitable Water values surge rapidly to around 2.00" this
evening/overnight ahead of the approaching cold front. POPS ramp
up to likely most areas during the 00-06Z/tue timeframe, though
far SE VA and ne NC look to stay mainly dry through that time as
shortwave energy rides ENE along or slightly ahead of the cold
front. Severe threat for strong wind gusts appears to remain just
NW of the area closer to the main jet axis and where storm
coverage will be greater prior to sunset and coincident w/ optimal
instability. However, The high PW airmass will support this
potentially being a moderate to locally heavy rainfall event.
Furthermore, the flow aloft will not be that strong from the NW
and shifting to the W with low level flow from the SW, creating a
fairly slow storm motion and perhaps some training cells. Still not
enough confidence to issue a Flash Flood watch, as some of the
models depict storms diminishing after sunset w/ loss of daytime
heating while others shows coverage of storms maintaining through
the night. Will mention potential for heavy rain/flooding in the
HWO (mainly NW). Thunder chc greatest through 06z. Lows in the upr
60s to lwr 70s. QPF through 12Z Tue to avg 1.00-1.50" far NW and
0.50 to 1.00" or less elsewhere (but with locally higher amounts
possible).

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The boundary will be slow to push across the region Tuesday as
the upper trough and associated cold front slowly moves east.
Additional shortwave energy will maintain decent amount of lift
across the SE half of the region and have bumped even the morning
POPS to likely across this region (30-40% elsewhere). The
greatest threat for heavy rain will be across the SE. By aftn,
potential for some clearing which could lead to additional storm
development. Highs in the low to mid 80s except upper 70s to lower
80s SE sections with more widespread low clouds all day.

Convection slowly wanes Tuesday night as drier air arrives in the
wake of the front, but upper level shortwave passing across the
north may be enough to set off a secondary line of showers/tstms
Tue evening, especially across the north. Lows 65-70 F.

Broad, upper level trough pushes across the region Wed. This will
likely be enough of a trigger for sct convection to develop once
again mainly during the afternoon / evening hours, over the south
(probably becomes too dry over the north by aftn). Highs in the
mid 80s except upr 70s to lower 80s at the beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The cold front will have pushed well offshore by Wednesday morning
with high pressure building in and dominating the weather Wednesday
into Thursday. model hint at a few possible showers along the
 Sound Wednesday night into early Thursday...otherwise dry
through mid week with high in the low to mid 80s.

The weather pattern becomes more unsettled Friday as a broad upper
level trough dominates Thursday night into the holiday weekend. Have
increased POPS to high chance over much of the area with the
exception of the Eastern Shore Friday afternoon. Showers and storms
look to develop late after strong heating with highs Friday in the
mid to upper 80s. The pattern changes very little into the holiday
weekend with another front pushing though Saturday night into
Sunday. This will keep a good chance for showers and storms in the
forecast through the weekend. At some point POPS will likely have to
be increased for the timing of the front.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Early this morning, high pres was cntrd off the Mid Atlc cst and
a cold front was pushing thru cntrl OH and wrn KY. Light E or SE
winds were moistening the boundary layer and resulting in areas of
IFR fog and stratus acrs the region. Conditions will improve
fairly quickly this morning, as winds increase fm the SSE. Expect
VFR conditions at all taf sites fm 14-15Z onward into very early
this eveng, as a pre-frntl trough approaches fm the wnw. The
trough then slowly pushes acrs the area later this eveng into Tue
aftn bringing the chance for showers and thunderstorms. The actual
cold front moves acrs the region late Tue into Wed morning.

OUTLOOK...Heavier precipitation may bring periods of IFR. There
will also be the potential for IFR in morning fog or stratus
thru midweek.

&&

.MARINE...
Dense fog adsy over the rivers through 10 am.

High pres was cntrd just off the New England and nrn Mid Atlc cst
early this morning, while a cold front was pushing thru cntrl OH
and wrn KY. No headlines in the short term today thru Tue ngt.
The high will slide farther e into the Atlc during today, as a
pre-frntl trough approaches fm the wnw. Winds will become SE or S
and increase to 10 to 15 kt for this aftn into tngt. A band of
showers and some thunderstorms will approach the Ches Bay and
coast later tngt into Tue morning, as the pre-frntl trough slides
into and acrs the region. Winds will lessen a bit and become SSW
as the trough moves in. SSW flow 5 to 15 kt continues Tue into
Tue ngt, as the actual cold front approaches fm the wnw. The cold
front and wind shift to a N and NE wind drops through the waters
Wed morning into Wed aftn with high pressure pushing into the Grt
Lks and OH valley. This will maintain a NE to E flow Wed and Thu.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Chances to add to an already wet month mainly tonight and Tue. June
has been another wet month at Richmond, the monthly total rainfall
through the 24th stands at 6.92" and already makes this the 9th
wettest June on record (2004 is wettest June with 9.93").

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/SAM
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...JAO
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271117
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
717 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure shifts off the Mid Atlantic coast today, as a cold
front slowly approaches from the west. The front will move across
the region Tuesday and Tuesday night. Weak high pressure builds in
from the north Wednesday and Thursday as the front stalls across
the Carolinas.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Current analysis showing pressure falls across the local area,
with ~1022 mb sfc high now centered off the Delmarva. Variably
cloudy skies across the region, generally mostly cloudy just
inland from the coast where stratus has moved in from the ocean
and mostly clear well inland and along the immediate coast. Patchy
dense fog will lift over the next 1-2 hrs.

Today will be a transition from the dry/pleasant weather yesterday
when dew pts were primarily in the 50s to one with increasing
moisture and humidity as the low level flow veers around to the
south. However, still should have a dry day for most areas as
showers and tstms develop along the Mtns this aftn and will be
slow to push east into the CWA. Model consensus continues to
support a broken line of showers and tstms beginning to affect the
NW zones sometime late in the aftn, primarily after 20-21Z, with
the better chance for storms not making it to areas e and SE of
metro Richmond until after 00Z. Have made some minor adjustments
to the forecast to best reflect these trends. Highs today will avg
in the upper 80s well inland to the upper 70s to lower 80s along
the immediate coast (gradient not strong enough to completely keep
the typical backing of the wind direction to the SE closer to the
coast). Skies will start off mostly cloudy along the coast and
become mostly sunny later this morning. Farther inland expect
partly to mostly sunny skies for most of the day with increasing
clouds late over the NW.

Precipitable Water values surge rapidly to around 2.00" this
evening/overnight ahead of the approaching cold front. POPS ramp
up to likely most areas during the 00-06Z/tue timeframe, though
far SE VA and ne NC look to stay mainly dry through that time as
shortwave energy rides ENE along or slightly ahead of the cold
front. Severe threat for strong wind gusts appears to remain just
NW of the area closer to the main jet axis and where storm
coverage will be greater prior to sunset and coincident w/ optimal
instability. However, The high PW airmass will support this
potentially being a moderate to locally heavy rainfall event.
Furthermore, the flow aloft will not be that strong from the NW
and shifting to the W with low level flow from the SW, creating a
fairly slow storm motion and perhaps some training cells. Still not
enough confidence to issue a Flash Flood watch, as some of the
models depict storms diminishing after sunset w/ loss of daytime
heating while others shows coverage of storms maintaining through
the night. Will mention potential for heavy rain/flooding in the
HWO (mainly NW). Thunder chc greatest through 06z. Lows in the upr
60s to lwr 70s. QPF through 12Z Tue to avg 1.00-1.50" far NW and
0.50 to 1.00" or less elsewhere (but with locally higher amounts
possible).

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The boundary will be slow to push across the region Tuesday as
the upper trough and associated cold front slowly moves east.
Additional shortwave energy will maintain decent amount of lift
across the SE half of the region and have bumped even the morning
POPS to likely across this region (30-40% elsewhere). The
greatest threat for heavy rain will be across the SE. By aftn,
potential for some clearing which could lead to additional storm
development. Highs in the low to mid 80s except upper 70s to lower
80s SE sections with more widespread low clouds all day.

Convection slowly wanes Tuesday night as drier air arrives in the
wake of the front, but upper level shortwave passing across the
north may be enough to set off a secondary line of showers/tstms
Tue evening, especially across the north. Lows 65-70 F.

Broad, upper level trough pushes across the region Wed. This will
likely be enough of a trigger for sct convection to develop once
again mainly during the afternoon / evening hours, over the south
(probably becomes too dry over the north by aftn). Highs in the
mid 80s except upr 70s to lower 80s at the beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The cold front will have pushed well offshore by Wednesday morning
with high pressure building in and dominating the weather Wednesday
into Thursday. model hint at a few possible showers along the
 Sound Wednesday night into early Thursday...otherwise dry
through mid week with high in the low to mid 80s.

The weather pattern becomes more unsettled Friday as a broad upper
level trough dominates Thursday night into the holiday weekend. Have
increased POPS to high chance over much of the area with the
exception of the Eastern Shore Friday afternoon. Showers and storms
look to develop late after strong heating with highs Friday in the
mid to upper 80s. The pattern changes very little into the holiday
weekend with another front pushing though Saturday night into
Sunday. This will keep a good chance for showers and storms in the
forecast through the weekend. At some point POPS will likely have to
be increased for the timing of the front.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Early this morning, high pres was cntrd off the Mid Atlc cst and
a cold front was pushing thru cntrl OH and wrn KY. Light E or SE
winds were moistening the boundary layer and resulting in areas of
IFR fog and stratus acrs the region. Conditions will improve
fairly quickly this morning, as winds increase fm the SSE. Expect
VFR conditions at all taf sites fm 14-15Z onward into very early
this eveng, as a pre-frntl trough approaches fm the wnw. The
trough then slowly pushes acrs the area later this eveng into Tue
aftn bringing the chance for showers and thunderstorms. The actual
cold front moves acrs the region late Tue into Wed morning.

OUTLOOK...Heavier precipitation may bring periods of IFR. There
will also be the potential for IFR in morning fog or stratus
thru midweek.

&&

.MARINE...
Dense fog adsy over the rivers through 10 am.

High pres was cntrd just off the New England and nrn Mid Atlc cst
early this morning, while a cold front was pushing thru cntrl OH
and wrn KY. No headlines in the short term today thru Tue ngt.
The high will slide farther e into the Atlc during today, as a
pre-frntl trough approaches fm the wnw. Winds will become SE or S
and increase to 10 to 15 kt for this aftn into tngt. A band of
showers and some thunderstorms will approach the Ches Bay and
coast later tngt into Tue morning, as the pre-frntl trough slides
into and acrs the region. Winds will lessen a bit and become SSW
as the trough moves in. SSW flow 5 to 15 kt continues Tue into
Tue ngt, as the actual cold front approaches fm the wnw. The cold
front and wind shift to a N and NE wind drops through the waters
Wed morning into Wed aftn with high pressure pushing into the Grt
Lks and OH valley. This will maintain a NE to E flow Wed and Thu.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Chances to add to an already wet month mainly tonight and Tue. June
has been another wet month at Richmond, the monthly total rainfall
through the 24th stands at 6.92" and already makes this the 9th
wettest June on record (2004 is wettest June with 9.93").

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...JAO
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG
CLIMATE...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KRNK 271115
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
715 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will give way to a cold front that will move
through the region this afternoon and tonight. A reinforcing cold
front will cross the area Tuesday into Tuesday night. High
pressure briefly returns to the area on Wednesday, before shifting
east of the region, and opening the door to an increased plume of
moisture from the Gulf of Mexico for the rest of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 445 AM EDT Monday...

00Z soundings were very dry above 5 kft and will saturate by this
afternoon. Models displaying PWATs above 2 inches this afternoon
east of the Blue Ridge. Given dry air aloft and stable conditions
with lingering high pressure this morning and lack of strong jet
dynamics this afternoon, we do not believe today`s storms will be
efficient enough to convert all this water into rain. However,
with wet antecedent conditions across SE WV and slow movement of
storms, rainfall amounts of a half of an inch an hour could lead
to a flood threat. With this in mind, a flash flood watch has been
posted for today across the Greenbrier Valley and Alleghany
Highlands.

There is also a marginal risk for severe weather this afternoon.
Instabilities are not the greatest, however areas east of the Blue
Ridge will see ample sunshine through most of the day. With this
heating and increasing moisture, strong to severe storms are
possible with wind being the primary threat.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 339 AM EDT Monday...

Upper level trough will move eastward across the Great Lakes on
Tuesday. At the surface, a cold front associated with digging
shortwave energy under the Great Lakes upper low will travel east
across the area. There is a narrow corridor of instability
developing by Tuesday afternoon ahead of the cold front. The day
two convective outlook highlights the potential for strong to
severe storms in the east with its marginal risk of gusty winds
and hail. High temperatures on Tuesday will range from the mid 70s
in the mountains to the mid 80s in the piedmont. Low level
northwest flow will create enough subsidence to dry out Tuesday
night. Low temperatures Tuesday night will vary from the mid 50s
in the northwest mountains to the mid 60s in the piedmont. Cool
high pressure will build into our area Wednesday. High
temperatures Wednesday will reach into the mid 60s in the west to
the mid 80s in the east. The high center will slowly slide east
and weaken Wednesday night into Thursday. Low temperatures
Wednesday night will drop into the lower 50s in the mountains to
the lower to mid 60s in the piedmont. There may even be a few 40s
in the colder valleys. Weak return flow looks to develop Thursday
afternoon with the chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms.
High temperatures on Thursday will be pleasant with readings from
the lower 70s in the northwest to the mid 80s in the southeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 339 AM EDT Monday...

The weather pattern will gradually transition to a wetter more
zonal trajectory by next weekend. Weak return flow continues
Thursday night into Friday ahead of the next upstream cold front
and subsequent digging shortwave energy. This along with a faint
passing impulse likely to lead to more diurnal nature showers and
thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening. However, it should be
warmer and more humid by Friday with highs rebounding into the
80s. Latest guidance continues to suggest a better potential for
more widespread showers Saturday into Sunday as the next front
drops in from the northwest and perhaps briefly slows up with more
shortwave energy approaching from the west. This could allow
deeper moisture south of the residual boundary to tag team with
lift heading in from the west including the upstream front to
create more convection Saturday...and somewhat of an overrunning
scenario into Day7. However appears deepest moisture and better
rainfall coverage across southern sections but quite uncertain
this far out so overall chance pops for now. Highs generally
seasonal except possibly a bit cooler on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 715 AM EDT Monday...

A cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms back into the
forecast area by this afternoon along with periods of MVFR
ceilings, potentially worse for brief periods in thunderstorms.

Showers/thunderstorms should spread into the western part of the
CWA in the 16Z-20Z time frame, then east of the Blue Ridge toward
21Z. Visibilities will likely lower during convection but
timing confidence is not high enough to included in the TAFs at
this time. Gusty winds will also accompany the stronger storms
with gusts up to 40 mph.

Extended discussion... A secondary cold front moves through
Tuesday into Tuesday night. While limited precipitation is
expected, winds will become more gusty from the northwest behind
it, as compared to behind the Monday cold front.

High pressure dominates with the weather pattern on Wednesday.
Other than some late night valley fog, VFR conditions are
expected.

Thursday into Friday, the high will shift to the east and the
region will be within southerly flow again. This pattern will have
the potential of advecting moisture back into the area. Showers
and storms will again be possible yielding areas of sub-VFR
conditions.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 339 AM EDT Monday...

Another round of slow moving showers and thunderstorms will be
likely especially this afternoon and evening across the region as
a cold front works through the area. Very deep moisture ahead of
the front should again make for heavier downpours with the showers
and storms. However rainfall totals should be much less than the
event seen last week with totals of perhaps of around an inch or
so in some locations. Still this in conjunction with very low
flash flood guidance and elevated streamflow, could combine to
cause flooding issues especially along creeks and streams
including areas of poor drainage. Therefore a flash flood watch
has been issued for parts of southeast West Va...the Va Highlands
and sections of the southern Shenandoah Valley for Monday into
Monday evening. Some added heavy rainfall may also affect
locations east of the Blue Ridge this evening where training of
storms could occur east into the Va Piedmont.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for VAZ018>020-023-024.
NC...None.
WV...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for WVZ043-044-507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...RCS
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...RCS
HYDROLOGY...JH




000
FXUS61 KRNK 270855
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
455 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will give way to a cold front that will move
through the region this afternoon and tonight. A reinforcing cold
front will cross the area Tuesday into Tuesday night. High
pressure briefly returns to the area on Wednesday, before shifting
east of the region, and opening the door to an increased plume of
moisture from the Gulf of Mexico for the rest of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 445 AM EDT Monday...

00Z soundings were very dry above 5 kft and will saturate by this
afternoon. Models displaying PWATs above 2 inches this afternoon
east of the Blue Ridge. Given dry air aloft and stable conditions
with lingering high pressure this morning and lack of strong jet
dynamics this afternoon, we do not believe today`s storms will be
efficient enough to convert all this water into rain. However,
with wet antecedent conditions across SE WV and slow movement of
storms, rainfall amounts of a half of an inch an hour could lead
to a flood threat. With this in mind, a flash flood watch has been
posted for today across the Greenbrier Valley and Alleghany
Highlands.

There is also a marginal risk for severe weather this afternoon.
Instabilities are not the greatest, however areas east of the Blue
Ridge will see ample sunshine through most of the day. With this
heating and increasing moisture, strong to severe storms are
possible with wind being the primary threat.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 339 AM EDT Monday...

Upper level trough will move eastward across the Great Lakes on
Tuesday. At the surface, a cold front associated with digging
shortwave energy under the Great Lakes upper low will travel east
across the area. There is a narrow corridor of instability
developing by Tuesday afternoon ahead of the cold front. The day
two convective outlook highlights the potential for strong to
severe storms in the east with its marginal risk of gusty winds
and hail. High temperatures on Tuesday will range from the mid 70s
in the mountains to the mid 80s in the piedmont. Low level
northwest flow will create enough subsidence to dry out Tuesday
night. Low temperatures Tuesday night will vary from the mid 50s
in the northwest mountains to the mid 60s in the piedmont. Cool
high pressure will build into our area Wednesday. High
temperatures Wednesday will reach into the mid 60s in the west to
the mid 80s in the east. The high center will slowly slide east
and weaken Wednesday night into Thursday. Low temperatures
Wednesday night will drop into the lower 50s in the mountains to
the lower to mid 60s in the piedmont. There may even be a few 40s
in the colder valleys. Weak return flow looks to develop Thursday
afternoon with the chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms.
High temperatures on Thursday will be pleasant with readings from
the lower 70s in the northwest to the mid 80s in the southeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 339 AM EDT Monday...

The weather pattern will gradually transition to a wetter more
zonal trajectory by next weekend. Weak return flow continues
Thursday night into Friday ahead of the next upstream cold front
and subsequent digging shortwave energy. This along with a faint
passing impulse likely to lead to more diurnal nature showers and
thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening. However, it should be
warmer and more humid by Friday with highs rebounding into the
80s. Latest guidance continues to suggest a better potential for
more widespread showers Saturday into Sunday as the next front
drops in from the northwest and perhaps briefly slows up with more
shortwave energy approaching from the west. This could allow
deeper moisture south of the residual boundary to tag team with
lift heading in from the west including the upstream front to
create more convection Saturday...and somewhat of an overrunning
scenario into Day7. However appears deepest moisture and better
rainfall coverage across southern sections but quite uncertain
this far out so overall chance pops for now. Highs generally
seasonal except possibly a bit cooler on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 145 AM EDT Monday...

A cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms back into the
forecast area by Monday afternoon along with periods of MVFR
ceilings, potentially worse for brief periods in thunderstorms.
Overnight, low cloud potential should be less east of the Blue
Ridge than previous mornings as high pressure has settled over the
region and E-SE flow has been reduced. On the other hand, low
clouds appear more likely west of the Blue Ridge with a trapped
layer of moisture around or just below 5kft. Fog potential appears
limited to none because of extensive high cloud cover and some mid
clouds.

Showers/thunderstorms should spread into the western part of the
CWA in the 16Z-20Z time frame, then east of the Blue Ridge toward
21Z. Visibilities will likely lower during convection but
confidence not high enough to included in the second half of the
TAF period. Gusty winds will also accompany the stronger storms
with gusts up to 40 mph.


Extended discussion... A secondary cold front moves through
Tuesday into Tuesday night. While limited precipitation is
expected, winds will become more gusty from the northwest behind
it, as compared to behind the Monday cold front.

High pressure dominates with the weather pattern on Wednesday.
Other than some late night valley fog, VFR conditions are
expected.

Thursday into Friday, the high will shift to the east and the
region will be within southerly flow again. This pattern will have
the potential of advecting moisture back into the area. Showers
and storms will again be possible yielding areas of sub-VFR
conditions.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 339 AM EDT Monday...

Another round of slow moving showers and thunderstorms will be
likely especially this afternoon and evening across the region as
a cold front works through the area. Very deep moisture ahead of
the front should again make for heavier downpours with the showers
and storms. However rainfall totals should be much less than the
event seen last week with totals of perhaps of around an inch or
so in some locations. Still this in conjunction with very low
flash flood guidance and elevated streamflow, could combine to
cause flooding issues especially along creeks and streams
including areas of poor drainage. Therefore a flash flood watch
has been issued for parts of southeast West Va...the Va Highlands
and sections of the southern Shenandoah Valley for Monday into
Monday evening. Some added heavy rainfall may also affect
locations east of the Blue Ridge this evening where training of
storms could occur east into the Va Piedmont.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Flash Flood Watch from 9 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for VAZ018>020-023-024.
NC...None.
WV...Flash Flood Watch from 9 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for WVZ043-044-507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...RCS
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...RCS
HYDROLOGY...RCS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270851
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
451 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure shifts off the Mid Atlantic coast today, as a cold
front slowly approaches from the west. The front will move across
the region Tuesday and Tuesday night. Weak high pressure builds in
from the north Wednesday and Thursday as the front stalls across
the Carolinas.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Current analysis showing pressure falls across the local area,
with ~1022 mb sfc high now centered off the Delmarva. Variably
cloudy skies across the region, generally mostly cloudy along the
coast where stratus has moved in from the ocean and mostly clear
well inland. Patchy fog seen in obs, mainly along the
western/inland edge of the stratus. Could see some additional fog
farther inland as well through 12Z but do not expect it to become
widespread.

Today will be a transition from the dry/pleasant weather yesterday
when dew pts were primarily in the 50s to one with increasing
moisture and humidity as the low level flow veers around to the
south. However, still should have a dry day for most areas as
showers and tstms develop along the Mtns this aftn and will be
slow to push east into the CWA. Model consensus continues to
support a broken line of showers and tstms beginning to affect the
NW zones sometime late in the aftn, primarily after 20-21Z, with
the better chance for storms not making it to areas e and SE of
metro Richmond until after 00Z. Have made some minor adjustments
to the forecast to best reflect these trends. Highs today will avg
in the upper 80s well inland to the upper 70s to lower 80s along
the immediate coast (gradient not strong enough to completely keep
the typical backing of the wind direction to the SE closer to the
coast). Skies will start off mostly cloudy along the coast and
become mostly sunny later this morning. Farther inland expect
partly to mostly sunny skies for most of the day with increasing
clouds late over the NW.

Precipitable Water values surge rapidly to around 2.00" this
evening/overnight ahead of the approaching cold front. POPS ramp
up to likely most areas during the 00-06Z/tue timeframe, though
far SE VA and ne NC look to stay mainly dry through that time as
shortwave energy rides ENE along or slightly ahead of the cold
front. Severe threat for strong wind gusts appears to remain just
NW of the area closer to the main jet axis and where storm
coverage will be greater prior to sunset and coincident w/ optimal
instability. However, The high PW airmass will support this
potentially being a moderate to locally heavy rainfall event.
Furthermore, the flow aloft will not be that strong from the NW
and shifting to the W with low level flow from the SW, creating a
fairly slow storm motion and perhaps some training cells. Still not
enough confidence to issue a Flash Flood watch, as some of the
models depict storms diminishing after sunset w/ loss of daytime
heating while others shows coverage of storms maintaining through
the night. Will mention potential for heavy rain/flooding in the
HWO (mainly NW). Thunder chc greatest through 06z. Lows in the upr
60s to lwr 70s. QPF through 12Z Tue to avg 1.00-1.50" far NW and
0.50 to 1.00" or less elsewhere (but with locally higher amounts
possible).

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The boundary will be slow to push across the region Tuesday as
the upper trough and associated cold front slowly moves east.
Additional shortwave energy will maintain decent amount of lift
across the SE half of the region and have bumped even the morning
POPS to likely across this region (30-40% elsewhere). The
greatest threat for heavy rain will be across the SE. By aftn,
potential for some clearing which could lead to additional storm
development. Highs in the low to mid 80s except upper 70s to lower
80s SE sections with more widespread low clouds all day.

Convection slowly wanes Tuesday night as drier air arrives in the
wake of the front, but upper level shortwave passing across the
north may be enough to set off a secondary line of showers/tstms
Tue evening, especially across the north. Lows 65-70 F.

Broad, upper level trough pushes across the region Wed. This will
likely be enough of a trigger for sct convection to develop once
again mainly during the afternoon / evening hours, over the south
(probably becomes too dry over the north by aftn). Highs in the
mid 80s except upr 70s to lower 80s at the beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The cold front will have pushed well offshore by Wednesday morning
with high pressure building in and dominating the weather Wednesday
into Thursday. model hint at a few possible showers along the
 Sound Wednesday night into early Thursday...otherwise dry
through mid week with high in the low to mid 80s.

The weather pattern becomes more unsettled Friday as a broad upper
level trough dominates Thursday night into the holiday weekend. Have
increased POPS to high chance over much of the area with the
exception of the Eastern Shore Friday afternoon. Showers and storms
look to develop late after strong heating with highs Friday in the
mid to upper 80s. The pattern changes very little into the holiday
weekend with another front pushing though Saturday night into
Sunday. This will keep a good chance for showers and storms in the
forecast through the weekend. At some point POPS will likely have to
be increased for the timing of the front.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Early this morning, high pres was cntrd off the Mid Atlc cst and
a cold front was pushing thru cntrl OH and wrn KY. Light E or SE
winds were moistening the boundary layer and resulting in areas of
IFR fog and stratus acrs the region. Conditions will improve
fairly quickly this morning, as winds increase fm the SSE. Expect
VFR conditions at all taf sites fm 14-15Z onward into very early
this eveng, as a pre-frntl trough approaches fm the wnw. The
trough then slowly pushes acrs the area later this eveng into Tue
aftn bringing the chance for showers and thunderstorms. The actual
cold front moves acrs the region late Tue into Wed morning.

OUTLOOK...Heavier precipitation may bring periods of IFR. There
will also be the potential for IFR in morning fog or stratus
thru midweek.

&&

.MARINE...
High pres was cntrd just off the New England and nrn Mid Atlc cst
early this morning, while a cold front was pushing thru cntrl OH
and wrn KY. No headlines in the short term today thru Tue ngt.
The high will slide farther e into the Atlc during today, as a
pre-frntl trough approaches fm the wnw. Winds will become SE or S
and increase to 10 to 15 kt for this aftn into tngt. A band of
showers and some thunderstorms will approach the Ches Bay and
coast later tngt into Tue morning, as the pre-frntl trough slides
into and acrs the region. Winds will lessen a bit and become SSW
as the trough moves in. SSW flow 5 to 15 kt continues Tue into
Tue ngt, as the actual cold front approaches fm the wnw. The cold
front and wind shift to a N and NE wind drops through the waters
Wed morning into Wed aftn with high pressure pushing into the Grt
Lks and OH valley. This will maintain a NE to E flow Wed and Thu.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Chances to add to an already wet month mainly tonight and Tue. June
has been another wet month at Richmond, the monthly total rainfall
through the 24th stands at 6.92" and already makes this the 9th
wettest June on record (2004 is wettest June with 9.93").

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...JAO
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG
CLIMATE...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270802
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
402 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure shifts off the Mid Atlantic coast today, as a cold
front slowly approaches from the west. The front will move across
the region Tuesday and Tuesday night. Weak high pressure builds in
from the north Wednesday and thursday as the front stalls across
the Carolinas.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Current analysis showing pressure falls across the local area,
with ~1022 mb sfc high now centered off the Delmarva. Variably
cloudy skies across the region, generally mostly cloudy along the
coast where stratus has moved in from the ocean and mostly clear
well inland. Patchy fog seen in obs, mainly along the
western/inland edge of the stratus. Could see some additional fog
farther inland as well through 12Z but do not expect it to become widespread.

Today will be a transition from the dry/pleasant weather yesterday
when dew pts were primarily in the 50s to one with increasing
moisture and humidity as the low level flow veers around to the
south. However, still should have a dry day for most areas as
showers and tstms develop along the Mtns this aftn and will be
slow to push east into the CWA. Model consensus continues to
support a broken line of showers and tstms beginning to affect the
NW zones sometime late in the aftn, primarily after 20-21Z, with
the better chance for storms not making it to areas e and SE of
metro Richmond until after 00Z. Have made some minor adjustments
to the forecast to best reflect these trends. Highs today will avg
in the upper 80s well inland to the upper 70s to lower 80s along
the immediate coast (gradient not strong enough to completely keep
the typical backing of the wind direction to the SE closer to the
coast). Skies will start off mostly cloudy along the coast and
become mostly sunny later this morning. Farther inland expect
partly to mostly sunny skies for most of the day with increasing
clouds late over the NW.

Precipitable Water values surge rapidly to around 2.00" this
evening/overnight ahead of the approaching cold front. POPS ramp
up to likely most areas during the 00-06Z/tue timeframe, though
far SE VA and ne NC look to stay mainly dry through that time as
shortwave energy rides ENE along or slightly ahead of th cold
front. Severe threat for strong wind gusts appears to remain just
NW of the area closer to the main jet axis. The high PW airmass
will support this being a moderate to locally heavy rainfall
event. Furthermore, the flow aloft will not be that strong from
the NW and shifting to the W with low level flow from the SW,
craeting a fairly slow storm motion and perhaps training cells.
Not enough confidence to issue a Flash Flood watch, but will
mention potential for heavy rain/flooding in the HWO (mainly NW).
Thunder chc greatest through 06z. Lows in the upr 60s to lwr 70s.
QPF through 12Z Tue to avg 1-1.50" far NW and 0.50 to 1.00" or
less elsewheer (but with locally higher amounts possible).

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The boundary will be slow to push across the region Tuesday as
the upper trough and associated cold front slowly moves east.
Additional s/w energy will maintain decent amount of lift across
the SERN half of the region to bring likely pops in by 12Z. The
greatest threat for heavy rain will be across the SE. By aftn,
potential fro some clearing which could lead to additional storm
development. Highs in the low to mid 80s except 75 to 80 at the
beaches.

Convection slowly wanes Tuesday night as drier air comes in from the
NW, but upper level shortwave passing across the north may be
enough to set off a secondary line of showers/tstms Tue evening,
especially across the north. Lows 65-70 F.

Another upr level trof pushes across the region Wed. This will
likely be enough of a trigger for sct convection to develop once
again mainly during the afternoon / evening hours, over the south
(may become too dry over the north by aftn). Highs in the mid 80s except
upr 70s at the beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The cold front will have pushed well offshore by Wednesday morning
with high pressure building in and dominating the weather Wednesday
into Thursday. model hint at a few possible showers along the
 Sound Wednesday night into early Thursday...otherwise dry
through mid week with high in the low to mid 80s.

The weather pattern becomes more unsettled Friday as a broad upper
level trough dominates Thursday night into the holiday weekend. Have
increased POPS to high chance over much of the area with the
exception of the Eastern Shore Friday afternoon. Showers and storms
look to develop late after strong heating with highs Friday in the
mid to upper 80s. The pattern changes very little into the holiday
weekend with another front pushing though Saturday night into
Sunday. This will keep a good chance for showers and storms in the
forecast through the weekend. At some point POPS will likely have to
be increased for the timing of the front.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Early this morning, high pres was cntrd off the Mid Atlc cst and
a cold front was pushing thru cntrl OH and wrn KY. Light E or SE
winds were moistening the boundary layer and resulting in areas of
IFR fog and stratus acrs the region. Conditions will improve
fairly quickly this morning, as winds increase fm the SSE. Expect
VFR conditions at all taf sites fm 14-15Z onward into very early
this eveng, as a pre-frntl trof approaches fm the wnw. The trof
then slowly pushes acrs the area later this eveng into Tue aftn
bringing the chance for showers and thunderstorms. The actual cold
front moves acrs the region late Tue into Wed morning.

OUTLOOK...Heavier precipitation may bring periods of IFR. There
will also be the potential for IFR in morning fog or stratus
thru midweek.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure off New England continues to nose down into the mid
Atlantic generating a continued easterly flow around 10 to 12 kts.
the surface high will continue to shift offshore and winds will
become light SE to S overnight. The pressure gradient tightens some
Monday afternoon as a weak lee trough of low pressure developed
across the piedmont. This will increase the S to SE winds to around
15 kt. For a brief time marginal SCA conditions are possible in the
Bay...but confidence of wind gusts of 18 kt or greater is low and
forecast calls for sustained winds of 15 kt with waves generally a
choppy 2 ft with a few higher waves possible. Winds will be the
strongest from mid afternoon into early evening. A band of showers
and some thunderstorms will approach the Bay and coast early Tuesday
morning either side of daybreak as a weak front approaches and then
stalls. The pressure gradient relaxes overnight Monday night into
Tuesday morning as weak low pressure passes to the north.

Southerly flow continues Tuesday around 10 to 15 kt with the lee
trough setting up once again. The next cold front and wind shift to
a N and NE wind drops through the waters Wednesday morning with high
pressure tracking to the north. This will maintained a NE to E flow
Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Chances to add to an already wet month mainly tonight and Tue. June
has been another wet month at Richmond, the monthly total rainfall
through the 24th stands at 6.92" and already makes this the 9th
wettest June on record (2004 is wettest June with 9.93").

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...JAO
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG/JAO
CLIMATE...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KLWX 270736
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
336 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A surface trough will set up over the region today with a cold front
swinging through late Tuesday. High pressure will build in the wake
of the front mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Minimal concerns through this morning with high pressure exiting the
region. Could see patchy fog in the Shenandoah Valley but otherwise
dry through daybreak.

For today, main concern will be the flooding potential, particularly
over portions of the Potomac Highlands and Shenandoah Valley. A
Flash Flood Watch has been issued for Pendleton, Rockingham,
Highland and Augusta Counties from later this morning through this
evening to account for the heightened threat. Overall synopsis, a
cold front will slowly approach from the west today. However, the
upper level ridge will be slow to weaken, resulting in minimal
frontal progression into the area. However, expecting a surface
trough to split the forecast area by this afternoon with increasing
southerly flow increasing warm air and moisture advection. Surface
convergence along this boundary combined with moderate instability
will act as the trigger point for convection today lasting into
tonight. As previously mentioned, main concern from any convection
will be heavy rain, resulting in potential flash flooding. The Watch
has been issued for the area with the lower flash flood guidance,
still trying to recoup from recent heavy rains. General agreement
between the model guidance too of the ThetaE axis aligning through
the Potomac Highlands, with values 350-360K and the PWAT axis with
values of around 2.0 inches. Flow is on the weaker side, but enough
to keep the cells from becoming at least completely stationary.

With the cold front weakening/still well to the west, and the
general trigger for convection today being diurnal influences,
expecting the precip to taper off for a period today for most of the
forecast area. Hi-res models hint at lingering showers over Southern
Maryland for late tonight so will maintain PoPs to account for
this.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The aforementioned cold front finally reaches the western half of
the forecast area Tuesday, slowly swinging through the region,
though not clearing the area till the deepening upper level trough
sends it east by Thursday morning. On Tuesday, have increasing PoPs
throughout the day with the cold front acting as a trigger for
convection, especially late in the afternoon into the evening.
Unlike today with minimal upper level support, with the trough
digging south, shortwave energy swinging around the base will aid in
further enhancement of convection especially heading into Tuesday
night across eastern Maryland. The PWAT axis pushes east on Tuesday,
but can still expect above normal PWAT values, between 1.0 and 1.5
inches, this time Tues evening along and east of the I-95
corridor. However a more progression flow and with the
convection now expected over the eastern half of the area with higher
flash flood guidance, the threat will be on the lower end. Instead,
deep layer shear is expected to be higher during this time, 25 to 30
knots, which combined with moderate instability, will lead to the
potential for stronger thunderstorms, with strong winds being the
main threat. The main threat for these stronger storms will be the
Baltimore/DC metro areas and east.

The cold front pushes far enough east on Wednesday to allow high
pressure to being building in, resulting in mainly dry weather for
the entire area through Wed night. With the frontal passage, weak
cold air advection will nudge temps down slightly, though still
close to normal.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Transitory high pressure will provide a mostly quiet Thursday.
That won`t last long though, as another cold front will make its
way toward the Mid Atlantic. Even late Thursday or Thursday night,
there may be a shower or storm in a developing lee trough,
enhanced by terrain. Suspect there will be a diurnal component to
this convection as well. The better chance at rainfall,
unfortunately, comes during the holiday weekend as the front
arrives and does not appear to be in a hurry to leave thanks to
troffing along the east coast of the US.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Generally VFR conditions through today. Patchy fog could reduce
vis at KCHO and KIAD briefly near daybreak. Highest confidence of
afternoon convection at KMRB and KCHO and possible KIAD, with the
storms possibly producing sub-VFR conditions in the vis with heavy
rain. Lower confidence of the thunderstorms reaching DC/Balt TAF
sites today. Winds southerly 10 kts or less, becoming light and
variable tonight.

With the cold front finally moving through on Tuesday, thunderstorms
possible at all sites, especially DC and Balt sites during the
afternoon and evening. Some of these storms could produce stronger
winds. The front clears the region by Wed morning, with VFR
conditions then in place through Wed night.

VFR should generally prevail Thursday and Friday. There will be
diurnal showers and thunderstorms each day, more so on Friday than
Thursday, however at this point its too early to pinpoint areal
coverage or possible intensity.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA in effect for all waters except the northern tip of Chesapeake
Bay for marginal conditions this afternoon into this evening. Winds
weaken overnight. Increasing southerly flow right ahead of the cold
front on Tuesday could produce brief and marginal SCA gusts on the
Chesapeake Bay. Since its marginal at the moment, will hold off on
extending any SCA.

As high pressure builds in the wake of the cold front Wed, sub-SCA
conditions expected on all waters. That theme should last through
the end of the week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and
evening, especially across the Potomac Highlands and Shenandoah
Valley. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for Pendleton, Rockingham,
Highland and Augusta Counties where FFG is between 1-1.5"/1 hr and 2-
2.5"/3 hrs. Though on the weaker side, there looks to be enough
steering flow to keep any thunderstorm moving through this area.
However, with PWATs around 2 inches and with spots within these
counties still vulnerable as they rebound from recent heavy rains,
there looks to be enough of an enhanced flash flooding threat to
warrant the issuance of the Watch. Basin average QPF totals are
between a half to one inch, with any thunderstorm having the
potential to produce a quick 1-3 inches.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Water levels are running around a half-foot above astronomical
normals at this time. Do not forsee an appreciable change over
the next couple of days.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...Flash Flood Watch from 11 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for VAZ025-026-503-504.
WV...Flash Flood Watch from 11 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for WVZ505-506.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT
     Tuesday for ANZ539>541.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT
     Tuesday for ANZ531>533-538-542.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT
     Tuesday for ANZ543.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT
     Tuesday for ANZ534.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EDT this
     evening for ANZ536-537.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Sears
NEAR TERM...Sears
SHORT TERM...Sears
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...Sears/HTS
MARINE...Sears/HTS
HYDROLOGY...Sears
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...Sears/HTS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270603
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
203 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure becomes centered off the Mid Atlantic coast through
Monday. A cold front slowly moves across the region Tuesday and
Tuesday night. High pressure returns later in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Bkn-Ovc SC (cigs 1500-2000 ft) hanging on invof cstl SE VA-NE NC
as onshore wnds contg. Otrw...sfc hi pres rmns just off the mdatlc
cst. Lgt onshore flo becomes more SSE by lt tngt. Some incrs in lo
lvl moisture expected psbly resulting in at least SCT clds by lt
tngt. Also...will cont mention of patchy fog (away fm the wtrs).
Lows mnly 60-65F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Return S-SW flow around the offshore high results in a warmer day
Monday. 12Z models continue to show that any convection ahead of the
approaching cold front holds off until around 21Z across the NWRN
zones with low chc pops only making it to the I95 corridor by 00Z.
Day starts out rather sunny then becomes pt sunny. Highs in the mid
to upr 80s... except 75-80 at the beaches.

Pops ramp up to likely most areas except coastal zones Monday night
as s/w energy rides ENE along or slightly ahead of th cold front.
Severe threat for strong wind gusts appears to remain just NW of the
area closer to the main jet axis. This shaping up to be more of a
moderate to locally heavy rainfall event as PW`s quickly jump to
between 1.5 - 2 inches. Will carry moderate pcpn rates at this time.
Thunder chc greatest through 06z. Lows in the upr 60s to lwr 70s.

The boundary will be slow to push across the region Tuesday as the
upper trough and associated cold front slowly moves east. Additional
s/w energy will maintain decent amount of lift across the SERN half
of the region to keep high chc to likely pops. Highs in the low to
mid 80s except 75 to 80 at the beaches.

Convection slowly wanes Tuesday night as drier air comes in from the
NW, but enough support to keep chc pops most of the night across
coastal areas. Lows 65-70.

Another upr level trof pushes across the region Wed. This will
likely be enough of a trigger for sct convection to develop once
again mainly during the afternoon / evening hours. Highs 80 - 85
except mid to upr 70s at the beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The cold front will have pushed well offshore by Wednesday morning
with high pressure building in and dominating the weather Wednesday
into Thursday. model hint at a few possible showers along the
 Sound Wednesday night into early Thursday...otherwise dry
through mid week with high in the low to mid 80s.

The weather pattern becomes more unsettled Friday as a broad upper
level trough dominates Thursday night into the holiday weekend. Have
increased POPS to high chance over much of the area with the
exception of the Eastern Shore Friday afternoon. Showers and storms
look to develop late after strong heating with highs Friday in the
mid to upper 80s. The pattern changes very little into the holiday
weekend with another front pushing though Saturday night into
Sunday. This will keep a good chance for showers and storms in the
forecast through the weekend. At some point POPS will likely have to
be increased for the timing of the front.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Early this morning, high pres was cntrd off the Mid Atlc cst and
a cold front was pushing thru cntrl OH and wrn KY. Light E or SE
winds were moistening the boundary layer and resulting in areas of
IFR fog and stratus acrs the region. Conditions will improve
fairly quickly this morning, as winds increase fm the SSE. Expect
VFR conditions at all taf sites fm 14-15Z onward into very early
this eveng, as a pre-frntl trof approaches fm the wnw. The trof
then slowly pushes acrs the area later this eveng into Tue aftn
bringing the chance for showers and thunderstorms. The actual cold
front moves acrs the region late Tue into Wed morning.

OUTLOOK...Heavier precipitation may bring periods of IFR. There
will also be the potential for IFR in morning fog or stratus
thru midweek.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure off New England continues to nose down into the mid
Atlantic generating a continued easterly flow around 10 to 12 kts.
the surface high will continue to shift offshore and winds will
become light SE to S overnight. The pressure gradient tightens some
Monday afternoon as a weak lee trough of low pressure developed
across the piedmont. This will increase the S to SE winds to around
15 kt. For a brief time marginal SCA conditions are possible in the
Bay...but confidence of wind gusts of 18 kt or greater is low and
forecast calls for sustained winds of 15 kt with waves generally a
choppy 2 ft with a few higher waves possible. Winds will be the
strongest from mid afternoon into early evening. A band of showers
and some thunderstorms will approach the Bay and coast early Tuesday
morning either side of daybreak as a weak front approaches and then
stalls. The pressure gradient relaxes overnight Monday night into
Tuesday morning as weak low pressure passes to the north.

Southerly flow continues Tuesday around 10 to 15 kt with the lee
trough setting up once again. The next cold front and wind shift to
a N and NE wind drops through the waters Wednesday morning with high
pressure tracking to the north. This will maintained a NE to E flow
Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
June has been another wet month at Richmond, the monthly total
rainfall through the 24th stands at 6.92" and already makes this
the 9th wettest June on record (2004 is wettest June with 9.93").

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...JAO
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG/JAO
CLIMATE...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270603
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
203 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure becomes centered off the Mid Atlantic coast through
Monday. A cold front slowly moves across the region Tuesday and
Tuesday night. High pressure returns later in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Bkn-Ovc SC (cigs 1500-2000 ft) hanging on invof cstl SE VA-NE NC
as onshore wnds contg. Otrw...sfc hi pres rmns just off the mdatlc
cst. Lgt onshore flo becomes more SSE by lt tngt. Some incrs in lo
lvl moisture expected psbly resulting in at least SCT clds by lt
tngt. Also...will cont mention of patchy fog (away fm the wtrs).
Lows mnly 60-65F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Return S-SW flow around the offshore high results in a warmer day
Monday. 12Z models continue to show that any convection ahead of the
approaching cold front holds off until around 21Z across the NWRN
zones with low chc pops only making it to the I95 corridor by 00Z.
Day starts out rather sunny then becomes pt sunny. Highs in the mid
to upr 80s... except 75-80 at the beaches.

Pops ramp up to likely most areas except coastal zones Monday night
as s/w energy rides ENE along or slightly ahead of th cold front.
Severe threat for strong wind gusts appears to remain just NW of the
area closer to the main jet axis. This shaping up to be more of a
moderate to locally heavy rainfall event as PW`s quickly jump to
between 1.5 - 2 inches. Will carry moderate pcpn rates at this time.
Thunder chc greatest through 06z. Lows in the upr 60s to lwr 70s.

The boundary will be slow to push across the region Tuesday as the
upper trough and associated cold front slowly moves east. Additional
s/w energy will maintain decent amount of lift across the SERN half
of the region to keep high chc to likely pops. Highs in the low to
mid 80s except 75 to 80 at the beaches.

Convection slowly wanes Tuesday night as drier air comes in from the
NW, but enough support to keep chc pops most of the night across
coastal areas. Lows 65-70.

Another upr level trof pushes across the region Wed. This will
likely be enough of a trigger for sct convection to develop once
again mainly during the afternoon / evening hours. Highs 80 - 85
except mid to upr 70s at the beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The cold front will have pushed well offshore by Wednesday morning
with high pressure building in and dominating the weather Wednesday
into Thursday. model hint at a few possible showers along the
 Sound Wednesday night into early Thursday...otherwise dry
through mid week with high in the low to mid 80s.

The weather pattern becomes more unsettled Friday as a broad upper
level trough dominates Thursday night into the holiday weekend. Have
increased POPS to high chance over much of the area with the
exception of the Eastern Shore Friday afternoon. Showers and storms
look to develop late after strong heating with highs Friday in the
mid to upper 80s. The pattern changes very little into the holiday
weekend with another front pushing though Saturday night into
Sunday. This will keep a good chance for showers and storms in the
forecast through the weekend. At some point POPS will likely have to
be increased for the timing of the front.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Early this morning, high pres was cntrd off the Mid Atlc cst and
a cold front was pushing thru cntrl OH and wrn KY. Light E or SE
winds were moistening the boundary layer and resulting in areas of
IFR fog and stratus acrs the region. Conditions will improve
fairly quickly this morning, as winds increase fm the SSE. Expect
VFR conditions at all taf sites fm 14-15Z onward into very early
this eveng, as a pre-frntl trof approaches fm the wnw. The trof
then slowly pushes acrs the area later this eveng into Tue aftn
bringing the chance for showers and thunderstorms. The actual cold
front moves acrs the region late Tue into Wed morning.

OUTLOOK...Heavier precipitation may bring periods of IFR. There
will also be the potential for IFR in morning fog or stratus
thru midweek.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure off New England continues to nose down into the mid
Atlantic generating a continued easterly flow around 10 to 12 kts.
the surface high will continue to shift offshore and winds will
become light SE to S overnight. The pressure gradient tightens some
Monday afternoon as a weak lee trough of low pressure developed
across the piedmont. This will increase the S to SE winds to around
15 kt. For a brief time marginal SCA conditions are possible in the
Bay...but confidence of wind gusts of 18 kt or greater is low and
forecast calls for sustained winds of 15 kt with waves generally a
choppy 2 ft with a few higher waves possible. Winds will be the
strongest from mid afternoon into early evening. A band of showers
and some thunderstorms will approach the Bay and coast early Tuesday
morning either side of daybreak as a weak front approaches and then
stalls. The pressure gradient relaxes overnight Monday night into
Tuesday morning as weak low pressure passes to the north.

Southerly flow continues Tuesday around 10 to 15 kt with the lee
trough setting up once again. The next cold front and wind shift to
a N and NE wind drops through the waters Wednesday morning with high
pressure tracking to the north. This will maintained a NE to E flow
Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
June has been another wet month at Richmond, the monthly total
rainfall through the 24th stands at 6.92" and already makes this
the 9th wettest June on record (2004 is wettest June with 9.93").

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...JAO
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG/JAO
CLIMATE...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KRNK 270550
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
150 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure tonight will give way to a cold front that
will move into and through the region Monday and Monday night. A
reinforcing cold front will cross the area Tuesday into Tuesday
night. High pressure briefly returns to the area on Wednesday,
before shifting east of the region, and opening the door to an
increased plume of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico for the rest
of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 745 PM EDT Sunday...

No significant changes needed at this time. Just some minor
adjustments to the T/Td readings.

As of 230 PM EDT Sunday...

High pressure will keep control of our weather pattern through much
of the overnight hours with limited, if any, precipitation. A cold
front will approach and then cross the region Monday into Monday
evening. Look for increasing chances of showers, and then showers
and storms, during the course of the day from west to east.

A Flash Flood Watch will be in effect on Monday from 900 AM EDT
through midnight. While large amounts of rain are not forecast,
enough rain may fall, potentially in a short period of time, to
prompt flash flooding across those areas impacted by the recent
historic flooding near the I-64 corridor of WV and VA. Remaining
debris from the flooding on June 23rd could exacerbate the
situation by acting like small dams with water pooling behind it.

Low temperatures tonight will range from the low to mid 60s across
the entire forecast area. On Monday, high temperatures will range
from the upper 70s to around 80 across the mountains, with mid to
upper 80s across the Piedmont.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
As of 245 PM EDT Sunday...

Initial surface cold front should continue to drift east through the
region Monday night with a preceding band of showers and storms heading
east of the Blue Ridge during the evening. Some solutions even suggest
a weak wave along the boundary which could slow it up even more but
appears best coverage should be across central/eastern sections early
on and mostly in the Piedmont late. This is where the corridor of
deeper convection and heavier rainfall could occur later in the evening
with perhaps some training out east of the mountains through midnight
or so. Thus will continue the going trend of having a band of high
likely pops sliding east off the Blue Ridge in the evening before
slowing crossing the east overnight. Appears a steady decrease in pops
over the west with only isolated coverage far west/northwest after
midnight. Still muggy with drier air lagging the front except over the
far west resulting in lows mostly 65-70 east and low/mid 60s mountains.

Deeper band of moisture should be on the eastern edge of the area to
start Tuesday before getting booted out via a secondary front
associated with digging shortwave energy under the Great Lakes upper
low. This will make added pops tricky during the day with moisture
depth decreasing behind the initial front during the day and some weak
lift just ahead of the main dewpoint boundary. Think models likely
overdone once initial shower band exits the east during the morning
with enough drying/subsidence to limit added coverage to all except the
Piedmont per weak instability and far west under weak upslope. Overall
low chance to slight pops with more sun during the afternoon. Highs
again mostly 80s with only late day cool advection mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Sunday...

Upper trough will continue to dominate through the period with a drier
northwest flow aloft early on gradually transitioning to perhaps a
wetter more zonal trajectory by next weekend. Should see a return to
drier more comfortable air midweek as will be behind the secondary
dewpoint front Tuesday night, with cooler high pressure building in
Wednesday before sliding east and weakening on Thursday. Appears enough
subsidence aided by low level northwest flow to go mainly dry Tuesday
night through Thursday morning with cooler lows in the 50s to lower 60s
and possibly a few 40s valleys early Thursday. Highs 70s mountains to
mid 80s out east.

Weak return flow looks to develop Thursday afternoon into Friday ahead
of the next upstream cold front and subsequent digging shortwave
energy. This along with a faint passing impulse likely to lead to more
diurnal nature showers/storms Thursday/Friday afternoons but rather
scattered at best. However should be warmer and more humid by Friday
with highs rebounding into the 80s. Latest guidance continues to
suggest a better potential for more widespread showers Saturday into
Sunday as the next front drops in from the northwest and perhaps
briefly slows up with more shortwave energy approaching from the west.
This could allow deeper moisture south of the residual boundary to tag
team with lift heading in from the west including the upstream front to
create more convection Saturday...and somewhat of an overrunning
scenario into Day7. However appears deepest moisture and better
rainfall coverage across southern sections but quite uncertain this far
out so overall chance pops for now. Highs generally seasonal except
possibly a bit cooler on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 145 AM EDT Monday...

A cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms back into the
forecast area by Monday afternoon along with periods of MVFR
ceilings, potentially worse for brief periods in thunderstorms.
Overnight, low cloud potential should be less east of the Blue
Ridge than previous mornings as high pressure has settled over the
region and E-SE flow has been reduced. On the other hand, low
clouds appear more likely west of the Blue Ridge with a trapped
layer of moisture around or just below 5kft. Fog potential
appears limited to none because of extensive high cloud cover and
some mid clouds.

Showers/thunderstorms should spread into the western part of the
CWA in the 16Z-20Z time frame, then east of the Blue Ridge toward
21Z. Visibilities will likely lower during convection but
confidence not high enough to included in the second half of the
TAF period. Gusty winds will also accompany the stronger storms
with gusts up to 40 mph.


Extended discussion...
A secondary cold front moves through Tuesday into Tuesday night.
While limited precipitation is expected, winds will become more
gusty from the northwest behind it, as compared to behind the
Monday cold front.

High pressure dominates with the weather pattern on Wednesday.
Other than some late night valley fog, VFR conditions are
expected.

Thursday into Friday, the high will shift to the east and the
region will be within southerly flow again. This pattern will have
the potential of advecting moisture back into the area. Showers
and storms will again be possible yielding areas of sub-VFR
conditions.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Another round of slow moving showers and thunderstorms will be
likely especially Monday afternoon and evening across the region
as a cold front works through the area. Very deep moisture ahead
of the front should again make for heavier downpours with the
showers and storms likely efficient at producing areas of heavy
rainfall. However rainfall totals should be much less than the
event seen last week with totals of perhaps of around an inch or
so in some locations. Still this in conjunction with very low
flash flood guidance and elevated streamflow, could combine to
cause flooding issues especially along creeks and streams
including areas of poor drainage. Therefore a flash flood watch
has been issued for parts of southeast West Va...the Va Highlands
and sections of the southern Shenandoah Valley for Monday into
Monday evening. Some added heavy rainfall may also affect
locations east of the Blue Ridge Monday evening where training
of storms could occur east into the Va Piedmont.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Flash Flood Watch from 9 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for VAZ018>020-023-024.
NC...None.
WV...Flash Flood Watch from 9 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for WVZ043-044-507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JH
NEAR TERM...DS/RAB
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...RCS
HYDROLOGY...JH




    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities