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000
FXUS61 KRNK 271543
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1043 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT OUR WEATHER THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS...ALONG WITH SOME
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A CLIPPER FOR THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM EST TUESDAY...

ALREADY UPDATED TO DROP THE GOING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS
THE SW WHERE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BASICALLY TAPERED TO FLURRIES AND
NOT EXPECTING MUCH ADDED COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE STRONG
WAVE ALOFT PASSES TO THE SE. OTHERWISE AREA REMAINS IN THE MIDDLE
BETWEEN THIS PASSING UPPER DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTH...A RESIDUAL
BAND OF SNOW TO THE EAST WITH THE COASTAL LOW...AND THE FINAL
UPSTREAM CHANNELED AXIS OF VORTICITY THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. APPROACH OF THIS FEATURE FROM THE NW MAY TEND TO BOUNCE
SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE NW ESPCLY AS DEEPER UPSLOPE FLOW
KICKS IN BEHIND THE PASSING SHORTWAVE TO THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON
SO KEEPING IN SOME CHANCE POPS FAR NW RIDGES. ALSO APPEARS
MOISTURE TO THE EAST SHOULD FADE WITH THE INCREASING NW FLOW
DOWNSLOPE WHILE LINGERING FLURRIES/-SHSN PERSIST NW NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE...EXPECTING MORE SUNSHINE TO PREVAIL IN THE
WEAK SUBSIDENCE REGION IN BETWEEN THIS FEATURES BUT WILL STAY
BLUSTERY AND COLD GIVEN THE ONSET OF A NEW SURGE OF DEEPER COLD
ADVECTION INTO THIS EVENING PER LATEST PROGS. THUS INCREASING
WINDS A BIT MOUNTAINS BUT STILL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AND LOWERING
TEMPS AS EXPECT THE FAR WEST TO STAY IN THE 20S...WITH LOW/MID 30S
BLUE RIDGE AND PERHAPS SOME LOW/MID 40S SOUTH/SE.

THE FINAL PIECE OF ENERGY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
THIS WAVE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE
UPSLOPE ZONES OF SE WV AS THE MAIN TRACK OF THE VORT IS FURTHER
NORTH. AN INCH OR TWO COULD FALL WITH THIS BUT NOT ADVISORY
LEVELS.

IN ADDITION...MODELS SHOWING GOOD PRESSURE RISES WITH SUBSIDENCE
WITH THIS WAVE...THOUGH SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ORIENTATION AND 8H
WINDS NOT FAVORING A HIGH WIND EVENT. STILL COULD SEE A FEW HOURS
THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND ADJACENT AREAS
REACH 40 TO 45 MPH. WILL HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.

TONIGHT...WITH WINDS STAYING UP...SHOULD KEEP ENOUGH MIXING TO
PREVENT TEMPS FROM DROPPING REALLY FAR. STILL LOOKING AT TEENS
WEST TO LOWER 20S EAST...ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EST TUESDAY...

1029 MB SFC HIGH WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY.
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY...THUS
ENDING UPSLOPE SNOW FLURRIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL WARM
INTO THE UPPER 20S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S IN THE
SOUTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER WILL SHIFT
EAST OF OUR AREA...WHILE OUR NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM HEADS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WINDS WILL BACK AND INCREASE IN
SPEED. CLOUD COVER WILL START TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE A CHALLENGE
WITH WARM ADVECTION. FOLLOWED SUPERBLEND FOR LOWS WITH READINGS FROM
MID TEENS IN THE NORTHWEST VALLEYS TO MID AND UPPER 20S ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
COULD ALLOW FOR COOLER VALLEY MINIMUMS.

BY THURSDAY MORNING...THE LOW CENTER IS IN THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
TRAILING COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY. MOISTURE
ARRIVES EARLY ENOUGH IN THE FAR WEST TO ALLOW FOR LIGHT POPS FOR
SNOW...BEFORE BETTER POPS TO ARRIVE MIDDAY INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE WEST WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL VARY FROM THE MID 30S IN
THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE..UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW FLURRIES
EXPECTED FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS WITH BLUSTERY
NORTHWEST WINDS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE WEST OF AN INCH OR TWO
MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS. LOW
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 20 DEGREES IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EST TUESDAY...

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO MUCH BELOW THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...ALONG WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.

UPPER LEVELS WILL BE EVOLVING TO MORE OF A DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM.
THE LATEST INDICATIONS POINT TO A COLDER MORE AMPLIFIED EASTERN TROF
DEVELOPING AS PER THE ECMWF...AND SPLIT FLOW OUT WEST WITH A RIDGE
FOR THE PACIFIC NW AND A CUTOFF LOW REGENERATING OVER THE BAJA
PENINSULA.

THE SNOW SHOWERS AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY. 1036
MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FOR SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST SUNDAY. MOISTURE AHEAD AND ALONG THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING VERY STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS TO USHER IN A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR AND COLD
TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.  THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH THIS MESSAGE AND NAEFS ANOMALIES NOW SUPPORT THE GFS
TREND TOWARD THIS SOLUTION SO CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN THIS COLD
OUTBREAK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM EST TUESDAY...

TERMINALS THIS PERIOD WILL STAY VFR...EXCEPT AT BLF/LWB WHERE A
PERIOD OF MVFR WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING...THEN AGAIN TONIGHT WITH
NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE
ROA/BCB/BLF TAF...WITH STRONGER GUSTS EXPECT THIS EVENING AS FINAL
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS. SOME GUSTS TO 35 KTS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION AT AIRPORTS LIKE HLX-GEV.


EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE A QUIET DAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TAF LOCATIONS. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM
ARRIVES ON THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CIGS AND
VSBYS...WITH A CHANCE FOR -SHRA...-SHSN IN THE MOUNTAINS.

ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
AND OFF THE COAST SUNDAY...RETURNING US TO VFR.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK/MBS
AVIATION...PM/RAB/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 271543
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1043 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT OUR WEATHER THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS...ALONG WITH SOME
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A CLIPPER FOR THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM EST TUESDAY...

ALREADY UPDATED TO DROP THE GOING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS
THE SW WHERE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BASICALLY TAPERED TO FLURRIES AND
NOT EXPECTING MUCH ADDED COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE STRONG
WAVE ALOFT PASSES TO THE SE. OTHERWISE AREA REMAINS IN THE MIDDLE
BETWEEN THIS PASSING UPPER DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTH...A RESIDUAL
BAND OF SNOW TO THE EAST WITH THE COASTAL LOW...AND THE FINAL
UPSTREAM CHANNELED AXIS OF VORTICITY THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. APPROACH OF THIS FEATURE FROM THE NW MAY TEND TO BOUNCE
SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE NW ESPCLY AS DEEPER UPSLOPE FLOW
KICKS IN BEHIND THE PASSING SHORTWAVE TO THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON
SO KEEPING IN SOME CHANCE POPS FAR NW RIDGES. ALSO APPEARS
MOISTURE TO THE EAST SHOULD FADE WITH THE INCREASING NW FLOW
DOWNSLOPE WHILE LINGERING FLURRIES/-SHSN PERSIST NW NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE...EXPECTING MORE SUNSHINE TO PREVAIL IN THE
WEAK SUBSIDENCE REGION IN BETWEEN THIS FEATURES BUT WILL STAY
BLUSTERY AND COLD GIVEN THE ONSET OF A NEW SURGE OF DEEPER COLD
ADVECTION INTO THIS EVENING PER LATEST PROGS. THUS INCREASING
WINDS A BIT MOUNTAINS BUT STILL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AND LOWERING
TEMPS AS EXPECT THE FAR WEST TO STAY IN THE 20S...WITH LOW/MID 30S
BLUE RIDGE AND PERHAPS SOME LOW/MID 40S SOUTH/SE.

THE FINAL PIECE OF ENERGY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
THIS WAVE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE
UPSLOPE ZONES OF SE WV AS THE MAIN TRACK OF THE VORT IS FURTHER
NORTH. AN INCH OR TWO COULD FALL WITH THIS BUT NOT ADVISORY
LEVELS.

IN ADDITION...MODELS SHOWING GOOD PRESSURE RISES WITH SUBSIDENCE
WITH THIS WAVE...THOUGH SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ORIENTATION AND 8H
WINDS NOT FAVORING A HIGH WIND EVENT. STILL COULD SEE A FEW HOURS
THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND ADJACENT AREAS
REACH 40 TO 45 MPH. WILL HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.

TONIGHT...WITH WINDS STAYING UP...SHOULD KEEP ENOUGH MIXING TO
PREVENT TEMPS FROM DROPPING REALLY FAR. STILL LOOKING AT TEENS
WEST TO LOWER 20S EAST...ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EST TUESDAY...

1029 MB SFC HIGH WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY.
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY...THUS
ENDING UPSLOPE SNOW FLURRIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL WARM
INTO THE UPPER 20S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S IN THE
SOUTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER WILL SHIFT
EAST OF OUR AREA...WHILE OUR NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM HEADS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WINDS WILL BACK AND INCREASE IN
SPEED. CLOUD COVER WILL START TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE A CHALLENGE
WITH WARM ADVECTION. FOLLOWED SUPERBLEND FOR LOWS WITH READINGS FROM
MID TEENS IN THE NORTHWEST VALLEYS TO MID AND UPPER 20S ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
COULD ALLOW FOR COOLER VALLEY MINIMUMS.

BY THURSDAY MORNING...THE LOW CENTER IS IN THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
TRAILING COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY. MOISTURE
ARRIVES EARLY ENOUGH IN THE FAR WEST TO ALLOW FOR LIGHT POPS FOR
SNOW...BEFORE BETTER POPS TO ARRIVE MIDDAY INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE WEST WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL VARY FROM THE MID 30S IN
THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE..UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW FLURRIES
EXPECTED FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS WITH BLUSTERY
NORTHWEST WINDS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE WEST OF AN INCH OR TWO
MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS. LOW
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 20 DEGREES IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EST TUESDAY...

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO MUCH BELOW THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...ALONG WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.

UPPER LEVELS WILL BE EVOLVING TO MORE OF A DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM.
THE LATEST INDICATIONS POINT TO A COLDER MORE AMPLIFIED EASTERN TROF
DEVELOPING AS PER THE ECMWF...AND SPLIT FLOW OUT WEST WITH A RIDGE
FOR THE PACIFIC NW AND A CUTOFF LOW REGENERATING OVER THE BAJA
PENINSULA.

THE SNOW SHOWERS AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY. 1036
MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FOR SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST SUNDAY. MOISTURE AHEAD AND ALONG THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING VERY STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS TO USHER IN A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR AND COLD
TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.  THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH THIS MESSAGE AND NAEFS ANOMALIES NOW SUPPORT THE GFS
TREND TOWARD THIS SOLUTION SO CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN THIS COLD
OUTBREAK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM EST TUESDAY...

TERMINALS THIS PERIOD WILL STAY VFR...EXCEPT AT BLF/LWB WHERE A
PERIOD OF MVFR WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING...THEN AGAIN TONIGHT WITH
NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE
ROA/BCB/BLF TAF...WITH STRONGER GUSTS EXPECT THIS EVENING AS FINAL
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS. SOME GUSTS TO 35 KTS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION AT AIRPORTS LIKE HLX-GEV.


EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE A QUIET DAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TAF LOCATIONS. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM
ARRIVES ON THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CIGS AND
VSBYS...WITH A CHANCE FOR -SHRA...-SHSN IN THE MOUNTAINS.

ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
AND OFF THE COAST SUNDAY...RETURNING US TO VFR.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK/MBS
AVIATION...PM/RAB/WP



000
FXUS61 KRNK 271543
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1043 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT OUR WEATHER THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS...ALONG WITH SOME
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A CLIPPER FOR THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM EST TUESDAY...

ALREADY UPDATED TO DROP THE GOING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS
THE SW WHERE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BASICALLY TAPERED TO FLURRIES AND
NOT EXPECTING MUCH ADDED COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE STRONG
WAVE ALOFT PASSES TO THE SE. OTHERWISE AREA REMAINS IN THE MIDDLE
BETWEEN THIS PASSING UPPER DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTH...A RESIDUAL
BAND OF SNOW TO THE EAST WITH THE COASTAL LOW...AND THE FINAL
UPSTREAM CHANNELED AXIS OF VORTICITY THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. APPROACH OF THIS FEATURE FROM THE NW MAY TEND TO BOUNCE
SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE NW ESPCLY AS DEEPER UPSLOPE FLOW
KICKS IN BEHIND THE PASSING SHORTWAVE TO THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON
SO KEEPING IN SOME CHANCE POPS FAR NW RIDGES. ALSO APPEARS
MOISTURE TO THE EAST SHOULD FADE WITH THE INCREASING NW FLOW
DOWNSLOPE WHILE LINGERING FLURRIES/-SHSN PERSIST NW NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE...EXPECTING MORE SUNSHINE TO PREVAIL IN THE
WEAK SUBSIDENCE REGION IN BETWEEN THIS FEATURES BUT WILL STAY
BLUSTERY AND COLD GIVEN THE ONSET OF A NEW SURGE OF DEEPER COLD
ADVECTION INTO THIS EVENING PER LATEST PROGS. THUS INCREASING
WINDS A BIT MOUNTAINS BUT STILL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AND LOWERING
TEMPS AS EXPECT THE FAR WEST TO STAY IN THE 20S...WITH LOW/MID 30S
BLUE RIDGE AND PERHAPS SOME LOW/MID 40S SOUTH/SE.

THE FINAL PIECE OF ENERGY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
THIS WAVE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE
UPSLOPE ZONES OF SE WV AS THE MAIN TRACK OF THE VORT IS FURTHER
NORTH. AN INCH OR TWO COULD FALL WITH THIS BUT NOT ADVISORY
LEVELS.

IN ADDITION...MODELS SHOWING GOOD PRESSURE RISES WITH SUBSIDENCE
WITH THIS WAVE...THOUGH SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ORIENTATION AND 8H
WINDS NOT FAVORING A HIGH WIND EVENT. STILL COULD SEE A FEW HOURS
THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND ADJACENT AREAS
REACH 40 TO 45 MPH. WILL HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.

TONIGHT...WITH WINDS STAYING UP...SHOULD KEEP ENOUGH MIXING TO
PREVENT TEMPS FROM DROPPING REALLY FAR. STILL LOOKING AT TEENS
WEST TO LOWER 20S EAST...ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EST TUESDAY...

1029 MB SFC HIGH WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY.
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY...THUS
ENDING UPSLOPE SNOW FLURRIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL WARM
INTO THE UPPER 20S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S IN THE
SOUTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER WILL SHIFT
EAST OF OUR AREA...WHILE OUR NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM HEADS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WINDS WILL BACK AND INCREASE IN
SPEED. CLOUD COVER WILL START TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE A CHALLENGE
WITH WARM ADVECTION. FOLLOWED SUPERBLEND FOR LOWS WITH READINGS FROM
MID TEENS IN THE NORTHWEST VALLEYS TO MID AND UPPER 20S ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
COULD ALLOW FOR COOLER VALLEY MINIMUMS.

BY THURSDAY MORNING...THE LOW CENTER IS IN THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
TRAILING COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY. MOISTURE
ARRIVES EARLY ENOUGH IN THE FAR WEST TO ALLOW FOR LIGHT POPS FOR
SNOW...BEFORE BETTER POPS TO ARRIVE MIDDAY INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE WEST WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL VARY FROM THE MID 30S IN
THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE..UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW FLURRIES
EXPECTED FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS WITH BLUSTERY
NORTHWEST WINDS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE WEST OF AN INCH OR TWO
MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS. LOW
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 20 DEGREES IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EST TUESDAY...

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO MUCH BELOW THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...ALONG WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.

UPPER LEVELS WILL BE EVOLVING TO MORE OF A DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM.
THE LATEST INDICATIONS POINT TO A COLDER MORE AMPLIFIED EASTERN TROF
DEVELOPING AS PER THE ECMWF...AND SPLIT FLOW OUT WEST WITH A RIDGE
FOR THE PACIFIC NW AND A CUTOFF LOW REGENERATING OVER THE BAJA
PENINSULA.

THE SNOW SHOWERS AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY. 1036
MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FOR SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST SUNDAY. MOISTURE AHEAD AND ALONG THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING VERY STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS TO USHER IN A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR AND COLD
TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.  THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH THIS MESSAGE AND NAEFS ANOMALIES NOW SUPPORT THE GFS
TREND TOWARD THIS SOLUTION SO CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN THIS COLD
OUTBREAK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM EST TUESDAY...

TERMINALS THIS PERIOD WILL STAY VFR...EXCEPT AT BLF/LWB WHERE A
PERIOD OF MVFR WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING...THEN AGAIN TONIGHT WITH
NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE
ROA/BCB/BLF TAF...WITH STRONGER GUSTS EXPECT THIS EVENING AS FINAL
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS. SOME GUSTS TO 35 KTS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION AT AIRPORTS LIKE HLX-GEV.


EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE A QUIET DAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TAF LOCATIONS. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM
ARRIVES ON THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CIGS AND
VSBYS...WITH A CHANCE FOR -SHRA...-SHSN IN THE MOUNTAINS.

ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
AND OFF THE COAST SUNDAY...RETURNING US TO VFR.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK/MBS
AVIATION...PM/RAB/WP



000
FXUS61 KRNK 271543
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1043 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT OUR WEATHER THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS...ALONG WITH SOME
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A CLIPPER FOR THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM EST TUESDAY...

ALREADY UPDATED TO DROP THE GOING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS
THE SW WHERE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BASICALLY TAPERED TO FLURRIES AND
NOT EXPECTING MUCH ADDED COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE STRONG
WAVE ALOFT PASSES TO THE SE. OTHERWISE AREA REMAINS IN THE MIDDLE
BETWEEN THIS PASSING UPPER DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTH...A RESIDUAL
BAND OF SNOW TO THE EAST WITH THE COASTAL LOW...AND THE FINAL
UPSTREAM CHANNELED AXIS OF VORTICITY THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. APPROACH OF THIS FEATURE FROM THE NW MAY TEND TO BOUNCE
SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE NW ESPCLY AS DEEPER UPSLOPE FLOW
KICKS IN BEHIND THE PASSING SHORTWAVE TO THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON
SO KEEPING IN SOME CHANCE POPS FAR NW RIDGES. ALSO APPEARS
MOISTURE TO THE EAST SHOULD FADE WITH THE INCREASING NW FLOW
DOWNSLOPE WHILE LINGERING FLURRIES/-SHSN PERSIST NW NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE...EXPECTING MORE SUNSHINE TO PREVAIL IN THE
WEAK SUBSIDENCE REGION IN BETWEEN THIS FEATURES BUT WILL STAY
BLUSTERY AND COLD GIVEN THE ONSET OF A NEW SURGE OF DEEPER COLD
ADVECTION INTO THIS EVENING PER LATEST PROGS. THUS INCREASING
WINDS A BIT MOUNTAINS BUT STILL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AND LOWERING
TEMPS AS EXPECT THE FAR WEST TO STAY IN THE 20S...WITH LOW/MID 30S
BLUE RIDGE AND PERHAPS SOME LOW/MID 40S SOUTH/SE.

THE FINAL PIECE OF ENERGY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
THIS WAVE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE
UPSLOPE ZONES OF SE WV AS THE MAIN TRACK OF THE VORT IS FURTHER
NORTH. AN INCH OR TWO COULD FALL WITH THIS BUT NOT ADVISORY
LEVELS.

IN ADDITION...MODELS SHOWING GOOD PRESSURE RISES WITH SUBSIDENCE
WITH THIS WAVE...THOUGH SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ORIENTATION AND 8H
WINDS NOT FAVORING A HIGH WIND EVENT. STILL COULD SEE A FEW HOURS
THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND ADJACENT AREAS
REACH 40 TO 45 MPH. WILL HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.

TONIGHT...WITH WINDS STAYING UP...SHOULD KEEP ENOUGH MIXING TO
PREVENT TEMPS FROM DROPPING REALLY FAR. STILL LOOKING AT TEENS
WEST TO LOWER 20S EAST...ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EST TUESDAY...

1029 MB SFC HIGH WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY.
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY...THUS
ENDING UPSLOPE SNOW FLURRIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL WARM
INTO THE UPPER 20S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S IN THE
SOUTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER WILL SHIFT
EAST OF OUR AREA...WHILE OUR NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM HEADS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WINDS WILL BACK AND INCREASE IN
SPEED. CLOUD COVER WILL START TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE A CHALLENGE
WITH WARM ADVECTION. FOLLOWED SUPERBLEND FOR LOWS WITH READINGS FROM
MID TEENS IN THE NORTHWEST VALLEYS TO MID AND UPPER 20S ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
COULD ALLOW FOR COOLER VALLEY MINIMUMS.

BY THURSDAY MORNING...THE LOW CENTER IS IN THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
TRAILING COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY. MOISTURE
ARRIVES EARLY ENOUGH IN THE FAR WEST TO ALLOW FOR LIGHT POPS FOR
SNOW...BEFORE BETTER POPS TO ARRIVE MIDDAY INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE WEST WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL VARY FROM THE MID 30S IN
THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE..UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW FLURRIES
EXPECTED FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS WITH BLUSTERY
NORTHWEST WINDS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE WEST OF AN INCH OR TWO
MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS. LOW
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 20 DEGREES IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EST TUESDAY...

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO MUCH BELOW THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...ALONG WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.

UPPER LEVELS WILL BE EVOLVING TO MORE OF A DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM.
THE LATEST INDICATIONS POINT TO A COLDER MORE AMPLIFIED EASTERN TROF
DEVELOPING AS PER THE ECMWF...AND SPLIT FLOW OUT WEST WITH A RIDGE
FOR THE PACIFIC NW AND A CUTOFF LOW REGENERATING OVER THE BAJA
PENINSULA.

THE SNOW SHOWERS AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY. 1036
MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FOR SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST SUNDAY. MOISTURE AHEAD AND ALONG THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING VERY STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS TO USHER IN A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR AND COLD
TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.  THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH THIS MESSAGE AND NAEFS ANOMALIES NOW SUPPORT THE GFS
TREND TOWARD THIS SOLUTION SO CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN THIS COLD
OUTBREAK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM EST TUESDAY...

TERMINALS THIS PERIOD WILL STAY VFR...EXCEPT AT BLF/LWB WHERE A
PERIOD OF MVFR WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING...THEN AGAIN TONIGHT WITH
NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE
ROA/BCB/BLF TAF...WITH STRONGER GUSTS EXPECT THIS EVENING AS FINAL
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS. SOME GUSTS TO 35 KTS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION AT AIRPORTS LIKE HLX-GEV.


EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE A QUIET DAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TAF LOCATIONS. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM
ARRIVES ON THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CIGS AND
VSBYS...WITH A CHANCE FOR -SHRA...-SHSN IN THE MOUNTAINS.

ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
AND OFF THE COAST SUNDAY...RETURNING US TO VFR.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK/MBS
AVIATION...PM/RAB/WP



000
FXUS61 KRNK 271543
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1043 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT OUR WEATHER THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS...ALONG WITH SOME
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A CLIPPER FOR THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM EST TUESDAY...

ALREADY UPDATED TO DROP THE GOING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS
THE SW WHERE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BASICALLY TAPERED TO FLURRIES AND
NOT EXPECTING MUCH ADDED COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE STRONG
WAVE ALOFT PASSES TO THE SE. OTHERWISE AREA REMAINS IN THE MIDDLE
BETWEEN THIS PASSING UPPER DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTH...A RESIDUAL
BAND OF SNOW TO THE EAST WITH THE COASTAL LOW...AND THE FINAL
UPSTREAM CHANNELED AXIS OF VORTICITY THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. APPROACH OF THIS FEATURE FROM THE NW MAY TEND TO BOUNCE
SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE NW ESPCLY AS DEEPER UPSLOPE FLOW
KICKS IN BEHIND THE PASSING SHORTWAVE TO THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON
SO KEEPING IN SOME CHANCE POPS FAR NW RIDGES. ALSO APPEARS
MOISTURE TO THE EAST SHOULD FADE WITH THE INCREASING NW FLOW
DOWNSLOPE WHILE LINGERING FLURRIES/-SHSN PERSIST NW NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE...EXPECTING MORE SUNSHINE TO PREVAIL IN THE
WEAK SUBSIDENCE REGION IN BETWEEN THIS FEATURES BUT WILL STAY
BLUSTERY AND COLD GIVEN THE ONSET OF A NEW SURGE OF DEEPER COLD
ADVECTION INTO THIS EVENING PER LATEST PROGS. THUS INCREASING
WINDS A BIT MOUNTAINS BUT STILL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AND LOWERING
TEMPS AS EXPECT THE FAR WEST TO STAY IN THE 20S...WITH LOW/MID 30S
BLUE RIDGE AND PERHAPS SOME LOW/MID 40S SOUTH/SE.

THE FINAL PIECE OF ENERGY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
THIS WAVE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE
UPSLOPE ZONES OF SE WV AS THE MAIN TRACK OF THE VORT IS FURTHER
NORTH. AN INCH OR TWO COULD FALL WITH THIS BUT NOT ADVISORY
LEVELS.

IN ADDITION...MODELS SHOWING GOOD PRESSURE RISES WITH SUBSIDENCE
WITH THIS WAVE...THOUGH SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ORIENTATION AND 8H
WINDS NOT FAVORING A HIGH WIND EVENT. STILL COULD SEE A FEW HOURS
THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND ADJACENT AREAS
REACH 40 TO 45 MPH. WILL HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.

TONIGHT...WITH WINDS STAYING UP...SHOULD KEEP ENOUGH MIXING TO
PREVENT TEMPS FROM DROPPING REALLY FAR. STILL LOOKING AT TEENS
WEST TO LOWER 20S EAST...ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EST TUESDAY...

1029 MB SFC HIGH WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY.
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY...THUS
ENDING UPSLOPE SNOW FLURRIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL WARM
INTO THE UPPER 20S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S IN THE
SOUTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER WILL SHIFT
EAST OF OUR AREA...WHILE OUR NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM HEADS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WINDS WILL BACK AND INCREASE IN
SPEED. CLOUD COVER WILL START TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE A CHALLENGE
WITH WARM ADVECTION. FOLLOWED SUPERBLEND FOR LOWS WITH READINGS FROM
MID TEENS IN THE NORTHWEST VALLEYS TO MID AND UPPER 20S ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
COULD ALLOW FOR COOLER VALLEY MINIMUMS.

BY THURSDAY MORNING...THE LOW CENTER IS IN THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
TRAILING COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY. MOISTURE
ARRIVES EARLY ENOUGH IN THE FAR WEST TO ALLOW FOR LIGHT POPS FOR
SNOW...BEFORE BETTER POPS TO ARRIVE MIDDAY INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE WEST WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL VARY FROM THE MID 30S IN
THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE..UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW FLURRIES
EXPECTED FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS WITH BLUSTERY
NORTHWEST WINDS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE WEST OF AN INCH OR TWO
MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS. LOW
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 20 DEGREES IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EST TUESDAY...

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO MUCH BELOW THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...ALONG WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.

UPPER LEVELS WILL BE EVOLVING TO MORE OF A DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM.
THE LATEST INDICATIONS POINT TO A COLDER MORE AMPLIFIED EASTERN TROF
DEVELOPING AS PER THE ECMWF...AND SPLIT FLOW OUT WEST WITH A RIDGE
FOR THE PACIFIC NW AND A CUTOFF LOW REGENERATING OVER THE BAJA
PENINSULA.

THE SNOW SHOWERS AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY. 1036
MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FOR SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST SUNDAY. MOISTURE AHEAD AND ALONG THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING VERY STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS TO USHER IN A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR AND COLD
TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.  THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH THIS MESSAGE AND NAEFS ANOMALIES NOW SUPPORT THE GFS
TREND TOWARD THIS SOLUTION SO CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN THIS COLD
OUTBREAK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM EST TUESDAY...

TERMINALS THIS PERIOD WILL STAY VFR...EXCEPT AT BLF/LWB WHERE A
PERIOD OF MVFR WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING...THEN AGAIN TONIGHT WITH
NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE
ROA/BCB/BLF TAF...WITH STRONGER GUSTS EXPECT THIS EVENING AS FINAL
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS. SOME GUSTS TO 35 KTS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION AT AIRPORTS LIKE HLX-GEV.


EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE A QUIET DAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TAF LOCATIONS. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM
ARRIVES ON THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CIGS AND
VSBYS...WITH A CHANCE FOR -SHRA...-SHSN IN THE MOUNTAINS.

ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
AND OFF THE COAST SUNDAY...RETURNING US TO VFR.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK/MBS
AVIATION...PM/RAB/WP



000
FXUS61 KRNK 271543
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1043 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT OUR WEATHER THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS...ALONG WITH SOME
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A CLIPPER FOR THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM EST TUESDAY...

ALREADY UPDATED TO DROP THE GOING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS
THE SW WHERE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BASICALLY TAPERED TO FLURRIES AND
NOT EXPECTING MUCH ADDED COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE STRONG
WAVE ALOFT PASSES TO THE SE. OTHERWISE AREA REMAINS IN THE MIDDLE
BETWEEN THIS PASSING UPPER DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTH...A RESIDUAL
BAND OF SNOW TO THE EAST WITH THE COASTAL LOW...AND THE FINAL
UPSTREAM CHANNELED AXIS OF VORTICITY THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. APPROACH OF THIS FEATURE FROM THE NW MAY TEND TO BOUNCE
SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE NW ESPCLY AS DEEPER UPSLOPE FLOW
KICKS IN BEHIND THE PASSING SHORTWAVE TO THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON
SO KEEPING IN SOME CHANCE POPS FAR NW RIDGES. ALSO APPEARS
MOISTURE TO THE EAST SHOULD FADE WITH THE INCREASING NW FLOW
DOWNSLOPE WHILE LINGERING FLURRIES/-SHSN PERSIST NW NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE...EXPECTING MORE SUNSHINE TO PREVAIL IN THE
WEAK SUBSIDENCE REGION IN BETWEEN THIS FEATURES BUT WILL STAY
BLUSTERY AND COLD GIVEN THE ONSET OF A NEW SURGE OF DEEPER COLD
ADVECTION INTO THIS EVENING PER LATEST PROGS. THUS INCREASING
WINDS A BIT MOUNTAINS BUT STILL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AND LOWERING
TEMPS AS EXPECT THE FAR WEST TO STAY IN THE 20S...WITH LOW/MID 30S
BLUE RIDGE AND PERHAPS SOME LOW/MID 40S SOUTH/SE.

THE FINAL PIECE OF ENERGY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
THIS WAVE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE
UPSLOPE ZONES OF SE WV AS THE MAIN TRACK OF THE VORT IS FURTHER
NORTH. AN INCH OR TWO COULD FALL WITH THIS BUT NOT ADVISORY
LEVELS.

IN ADDITION...MODELS SHOWING GOOD PRESSURE RISES WITH SUBSIDENCE
WITH THIS WAVE...THOUGH SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ORIENTATION AND 8H
WINDS NOT FAVORING A HIGH WIND EVENT. STILL COULD SEE A FEW HOURS
THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND ADJACENT AREAS
REACH 40 TO 45 MPH. WILL HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.

TONIGHT...WITH WINDS STAYING UP...SHOULD KEEP ENOUGH MIXING TO
PREVENT TEMPS FROM DROPPING REALLY FAR. STILL LOOKING AT TEENS
WEST TO LOWER 20S EAST...ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EST TUESDAY...

1029 MB SFC HIGH WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY.
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY...THUS
ENDING UPSLOPE SNOW FLURRIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL WARM
INTO THE UPPER 20S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S IN THE
SOUTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER WILL SHIFT
EAST OF OUR AREA...WHILE OUR NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM HEADS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WINDS WILL BACK AND INCREASE IN
SPEED. CLOUD COVER WILL START TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE A CHALLENGE
WITH WARM ADVECTION. FOLLOWED SUPERBLEND FOR LOWS WITH READINGS FROM
MID TEENS IN THE NORTHWEST VALLEYS TO MID AND UPPER 20S ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
COULD ALLOW FOR COOLER VALLEY MINIMUMS.

BY THURSDAY MORNING...THE LOW CENTER IS IN THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
TRAILING COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY. MOISTURE
ARRIVES EARLY ENOUGH IN THE FAR WEST TO ALLOW FOR LIGHT POPS FOR
SNOW...BEFORE BETTER POPS TO ARRIVE MIDDAY INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE WEST WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL VARY FROM THE MID 30S IN
THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE..UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW FLURRIES
EXPECTED FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS WITH BLUSTERY
NORTHWEST WINDS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE WEST OF AN INCH OR TWO
MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS. LOW
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 20 DEGREES IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EST TUESDAY...

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO MUCH BELOW THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...ALONG WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.

UPPER LEVELS WILL BE EVOLVING TO MORE OF A DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM.
THE LATEST INDICATIONS POINT TO A COLDER MORE AMPLIFIED EASTERN TROF
DEVELOPING AS PER THE ECMWF...AND SPLIT FLOW OUT WEST WITH A RIDGE
FOR THE PACIFIC NW AND A CUTOFF LOW REGENERATING OVER THE BAJA
PENINSULA.

THE SNOW SHOWERS AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY. 1036
MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FOR SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST SUNDAY. MOISTURE AHEAD AND ALONG THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING VERY STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS TO USHER IN A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR AND COLD
TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.  THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH THIS MESSAGE AND NAEFS ANOMALIES NOW SUPPORT THE GFS
TREND TOWARD THIS SOLUTION SO CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN THIS COLD
OUTBREAK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM EST TUESDAY...

TERMINALS THIS PERIOD WILL STAY VFR...EXCEPT AT BLF/LWB WHERE A
PERIOD OF MVFR WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING...THEN AGAIN TONIGHT WITH
NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE
ROA/BCB/BLF TAF...WITH STRONGER GUSTS EXPECT THIS EVENING AS FINAL
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS. SOME GUSTS TO 35 KTS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION AT AIRPORTS LIKE HLX-GEV.


EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE A QUIET DAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TAF LOCATIONS. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM
ARRIVES ON THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CIGS AND
VSBYS...WITH A CHANCE FOR -SHRA...-SHSN IN THE MOUNTAINS.

ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
AND OFF THE COAST SUNDAY...RETURNING US TO VFR.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK/MBS
AVIATION...PM/RAB/WP


  [top]

000
FXUS61 KLWX 271512 AAE
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1012 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
WEDNESDAY BEFORE A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH LATER THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SEVERAL MORE HRS OF THE DIRECT INFLUENCE OF A LARGE-SCALE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SWINGING AROUND THE NORTHEAST. ONE SIZEABLE
LINGERING SNOW BAND CONTINUES TO HANG OVER THE AREA...FROM BUFFALO
NY TO NORFOLK VA. THIS FEATURE IS EFFECTIVELY THE MODIFIED AND
LEFTOVER UPPER ENERGY FROM THE CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT ARRIVED OVER
THE AREA LATE LAST WEEK. THE PRECIP W/ THIS BAND HAS GRADUALLY
DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST FEW HRS AND WILL COMPLETELY DISAPPEAR
LATER THIS AFTN. AS THIS FEATURE TILTS MORE NW-SE ACROSS OUR
CWA...WINDS WILL GET DRIVEN TO THE SFC IN THE 20-30MPH
RANGE...KEEPING LOW WIND CHILLS IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS
WILL BE THE MAIN WX STORY FOR OUR AREA INTO WED...THE LOW WIND
CHILLS/TEMPS AND GUSTY CONDITIONS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BARELY REACH
THE FREEZING MARK - WHERE IT DOES - AND SCATTERED FLURRIES AND
BRIEF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION
WELL INTO THE AFTN HRS. NO ADDITIONAL ACCUM EXPECTED.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OUT WEST TO
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S EAST. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REDUCE
WIND CHILLS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO SUNSHINE AND LESS WIND. TEMPERATURE
WILL BE SLOW TO RISE AS COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 20S OVER THE NORTH AND WEST
TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING DRY
AND COLD CONDITIONS. WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE WITH THE
MIN TEMPS DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS
ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND...TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S IN
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE PASSING
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. A PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
REGION FRIDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM AND IT WILL BE QUITE COLD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
BUT IT WILL REMAIN COLD.

LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION. DETAILS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN THIS
FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LIFT TO VFR LATER TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS
AWAY FROM THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION AND
SUBVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY...BUT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND GUSTS ON THE WATERS WILL REACH 25 TO 30 KTS AS LOW PRESSURE
PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC. THE GRADIENT WILL BE SLOW TO RELAX AND SCA
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
WATERS FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE WATERS FRIDAY...BUT GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AND A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...KRW/BJL







000
FXUS61 KLWX 271512 AAE
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1012 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
WEDNESDAY BEFORE A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH LATER THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SEVERAL MORE HRS OF THE DIRECT INFLUENCE OF A LARGE-SCALE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SWINGING AROUND THE NORTHEAST. ONE SIZEABLE
LINGERING SNOW BAND CONTINUES TO HANG OVER THE AREA...FROM BUFFALO
NY TO NORFOLK VA. THIS FEATURE IS EFFECTIVELY THE MODIFIED AND
LEFTOVER UPPER ENERGY FROM THE CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT ARRIVED OVER
THE AREA LATE LAST WEEK. THE PRECIP W/ THIS BAND HAS GRADUALLY
DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST FEW HRS AND WILL COMPLETELY DISAPPEAR
LATER THIS AFTN. AS THIS FEATURE TILTS MORE NW-SE ACROSS OUR
CWA...WINDS WILL GET DRIVEN TO THE SFC IN THE 20-30MPH
RANGE...KEEPING LOW WIND CHILLS IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS
WILL BE THE MAIN WX STORY FOR OUR AREA INTO WED...THE LOW WIND
CHILLS/TEMPS AND GUSTY CONDITIONS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BARELY REACH
THE FREEZING MARK - WHERE IT DOES - AND SCATTERED FLURRIES AND
BRIEF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION
WELL INTO THE AFTN HRS. NO ADDITIONAL ACCUM EXPECTED.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OUT WEST TO
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S EAST. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REDUCE
WIND CHILLS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO SUNSHINE AND LESS WIND. TEMPERATURE
WILL BE SLOW TO RISE AS COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 20S OVER THE NORTH AND WEST
TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING DRY
AND COLD CONDITIONS. WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE WITH THE
MIN TEMPS DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS
ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND...TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S IN
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE PASSING
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. A PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
REGION FRIDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM AND IT WILL BE QUITE COLD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
BUT IT WILL REMAIN COLD.

LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION. DETAILS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN THIS
FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LIFT TO VFR LATER TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS
AWAY FROM THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION AND
SUBVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY...BUT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND GUSTS ON THE WATERS WILL REACH 25 TO 30 KTS AS LOW PRESSURE
PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC. THE GRADIENT WILL BE SLOW TO RELAX AND SCA
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
WATERS FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE WATERS FRIDAY...BUT GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AND A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...KRW/BJL







000
FXUS61 KLWX 271512 AAE
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1012 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
WEDNESDAY BEFORE A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH LATER THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SEVERAL MORE HRS OF THE DIRECT INFLUENCE OF A LARGE-SCALE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SWINGING AROUND THE NORTHEAST. ONE SIZEABLE
LINGERING SNOW BAND CONTINUES TO HANG OVER THE AREA...FROM BUFFALO
NY TO NORFOLK VA. THIS FEATURE IS EFFECTIVELY THE MODIFIED AND
LEFTOVER UPPER ENERGY FROM THE CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT ARRIVED OVER
THE AREA LATE LAST WEEK. THE PRECIP W/ THIS BAND HAS GRADUALLY
DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST FEW HRS AND WILL COMPLETELY DISAPPEAR
LATER THIS AFTN. AS THIS FEATURE TILTS MORE NW-SE ACROSS OUR
CWA...WINDS WILL GET DRIVEN TO THE SFC IN THE 20-30MPH
RANGE...KEEPING LOW WIND CHILLS IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS
WILL BE THE MAIN WX STORY FOR OUR AREA INTO WED...THE LOW WIND
CHILLS/TEMPS AND GUSTY CONDITIONS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BARELY REACH
THE FREEZING MARK - WHERE IT DOES - AND SCATTERED FLURRIES AND
BRIEF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION
WELL INTO THE AFTN HRS. NO ADDITIONAL ACCUM EXPECTED.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OUT WEST TO
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S EAST. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REDUCE
WIND CHILLS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO SUNSHINE AND LESS WIND. TEMPERATURE
WILL BE SLOW TO RISE AS COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 20S OVER THE NORTH AND WEST
TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING DRY
AND COLD CONDITIONS. WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE WITH THE
MIN TEMPS DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS
ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND...TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S IN
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE PASSING
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. A PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
REGION FRIDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM AND IT WILL BE QUITE COLD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
BUT IT WILL REMAIN COLD.

LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION. DETAILS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN THIS
FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LIFT TO VFR LATER TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS
AWAY FROM THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION AND
SUBVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY...BUT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND GUSTS ON THE WATERS WILL REACH 25 TO 30 KTS AS LOW PRESSURE
PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC. THE GRADIENT WILL BE SLOW TO RELAX AND SCA
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
WATERS FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE WATERS FRIDAY...BUT GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AND A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...KRW/BJL







000
FXUS61 KLWX 271512 AAE
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1012 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
WEDNESDAY BEFORE A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH LATER THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SEVERAL MORE HRS OF THE DIRECT INFLUENCE OF A LARGE-SCALE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SWINGING AROUND THE NORTHEAST. ONE SIZEABLE
LINGERING SNOW BAND CONTINUES TO HANG OVER THE AREA...FROM BUFFALO
NY TO NORFOLK VA. THIS FEATURE IS EFFECTIVELY THE MODIFIED AND
LEFTOVER UPPER ENERGY FROM THE CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT ARRIVED OVER
THE AREA LATE LAST WEEK. THE PRECIP W/ THIS BAND HAS GRADUALLY
DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST FEW HRS AND WILL COMPLETELY DISAPPEAR
LATER THIS AFTN. AS THIS FEATURE TILTS MORE NW-SE ACROSS OUR
CWA...WINDS WILL GET DRIVEN TO THE SFC IN THE 20-30MPH
RANGE...KEEPING LOW WIND CHILLS IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS
WILL BE THE MAIN WX STORY FOR OUR AREA INTO WED...THE LOW WIND
CHILLS/TEMPS AND GUSTY CONDITIONS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BARELY REACH
THE FREEZING MARK - WHERE IT DOES - AND SCATTERED FLURRIES AND
BRIEF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION
WELL INTO THE AFTN HRS. NO ADDITIONAL ACCUM EXPECTED.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OUT WEST TO
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S EAST. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REDUCE
WIND CHILLS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO SUNSHINE AND LESS WIND. TEMPERATURE
WILL BE SLOW TO RISE AS COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 20S OVER THE NORTH AND WEST
TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING DRY
AND COLD CONDITIONS. WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE WITH THE
MIN TEMPS DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS
ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND...TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S IN
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE PASSING
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. A PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
REGION FRIDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM AND IT WILL BE QUITE COLD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
BUT IT WILL REMAIN COLD.

LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION. DETAILS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN THIS
FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LIFT TO VFR LATER TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS
AWAY FROM THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION AND
SUBVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY...BUT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND GUSTS ON THE WATERS WILL REACH 25 TO 30 KTS AS LOW PRESSURE
PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC. THE GRADIENT WILL BE SLOW TO RELAX AND SCA
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
WATERS FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE WATERS FRIDAY...BUT GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AND A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...KRW/BJL







000
FXUS61 KRNK 271440 AAA
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
940 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT OUR WEATHER THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS...ALONG WITH SOME
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A CLIPPER FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 935 AM EST TUESDAY...

QUICK UPDATE TO DROP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS THE SW
WHERE BASICALLY ONLY SEEING FLURRIES AND NOT EXPECTING TO SEE MUCH
ADDED ACCUMULATION THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO LOWERED POPS AND ADJUSTED
CLOUDS A BIT ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST.

AS OF 700 AM EST TUESDAY...

CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. BAND OF LIGHT SNOW HAS MOVED EAST TOWARD I-85-I-95 IN VA.
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE NOW OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU IS AIMING TO
SEND MOST OF THE SNOWFALL TO THE SMOKYS THIS MORNING...SNEAKING UP
INTO THE NC HIGH COUNTRY. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES STILL
LOOK REASONABLE ACROSS THE TN/NC BORDER MTNS. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE MADE...EXCEPT ADJUSTING SKY COVER DOWN
SOME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NARROW AXIS OF PRECIP MOVING ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH SOME SNOW...BUT TEMPS RUNNING IN THE MID 30S WILL
ONLY RESULT IN A DUSTING AT MOST ON GRASSY SURFACES.
UPSTREAM...NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO KY WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TO
THE SRN APPALACHIANS BY MIDDAY. THIS WILL BRING A SHOT OF SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE NC MTNS NWD INTO SE WV. OVERALL...AMOUNTS WILL BE
LESS THAN 2 INCHES...BUT WILL KEEP THE CURRENT ADVISORY FOR THE NC
MTNS INTO GRAYSON GOING.

THIS WAVE WILL EXIT THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST AREAS CLEARING OUTSIDE
THE WRN SLOPES. THE FINAL PIECE OF ENERGY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.

THIS WAVE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE
UPSLOPE ZONES OF SE WV AS THE MAIN TRACK OF THE VORT IS FURTHER
NORTH. AN INCH OR TWO COULD FALL WITH THIS BUT NOT ADVISORY LEVELS.

IN ADDITION...MODELS SHOWING GOOD PRESSURE RISES WITH SUBSIDENCE
WITH THIS WAVE...THOUGH SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ORIENTATION AND 8H
WINDS NOT FAVORING A HIGH WIND EVENT. STILL COULD SEE A FEW HOURS
THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND ADJACENT AREAS
REACH 40 TO 45 MPH. WILL HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.

WILL BE MUCH COLDER TODAY IN THE MOUNTAINS...THANKS TO THE SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR HEADING IN WITH GUSTY WINDS. LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE 20S
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND INTO SE WV...TO AROUND 30 NEW RIVER
VALLEY...UPPER 30S ROANOKE...AND MID 40S SOUTHSIDE VA/NW NC PIEDMONT.

TONIGHT...WITH WINDS STAYING UP...SHOULD KEEP ENOUGH MIXING TO
PREVENT TEMPS FROM DROPPING REALLY FAR. STILL LOOKING AT TEENS WEST
TO LOWER 20S EAST...ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EST TUESDAY...

1029 MB SFC HIGH WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY.
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY...THUS
ENDING UPSLOPE SNOW FLURRIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL WARM
INTO THE UPPER 20S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S IN THE
SOUTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER WILL SHIFT
EAST OF OUR AREA...WHILE OUR NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM HEADS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WINDS WILL BACK AND INCREASE IN
SPEED. CLOUD COVER WILL START TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE A CHALLENGE
WITH WARM ADVECTION. FOLLOWED SUPERBLEND FOR LOWS WITH READINGS FROM
MID TEENS IN THE NORTHWEST VALLEYS TO MID AND UPPER 20S ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
COULD ALLOW FOR COOLER VALLEY MINIMUMS.

BY THURSDAY MORNING...THE LOW CENTER IS IN THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
TRAILING COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY. MOISTURE
ARRIVES EARLY ENOUGH IN THE FAR WEST TO ALLOW FOR LIGHT POPS FOR
SNOW...BEFORE BETTER POPS TO ARRIVE MIDDAY INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE WEST WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL VARY FROM THE MID 30S IN
THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE..UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW FLURRIES
EXPECTED FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS WITH BLUSTERY
NORTHWEST WINDS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE WEST OF AN INCH OR TWO
MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS. LOW
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 20 DEGREES IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EST TUESDAY...

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO MUCH BELOW THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...ALONG WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.

UPPER LEVELS WILL BE EVOLVING TO MORE OF A DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM.
THE LATEST INDICATIONS POINT TO A COLDER MORE AMPLIFIED EASTERN TROF
DEVELOPING AS PER THE ECMWF...AND SPLIT FLOW OUT WEST WITH A RIDGE
FOR THE PACIFIC NW AND A CUTOFF LOW REGENERATING OVER THE BAJA
PENINSULA.

THE SNOW SHOWERS AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY. 1036
MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FOR SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST SUNDAY. MOISTURE AHEAD AND ALONG THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING VERY STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS TO USHER IN A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR AND COLD
TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.  THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH THIS MESSAGE AND NAEFS ANOMALIES NOW SUPPORT THE GFS
TREND TOWARD THIS SOLUTION SO CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN THIS COLD
OUTBREAK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM EST TUESDAY...

TERMINALS THIS PERIOD WILL STAY VFR...EXCEPT AT BLF/LWB WHERE A
PERIOD OF MVFR WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING...THEN AGAIN TONIGHT WITH
NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE
ROA/BCB/BLF TAF...WITH STRONGER GUSTS EXPECT THIS EVENING AS FINAL
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS. SOME GUSTS TO 35 KTS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION AT AIRPORTS LIKE HLX-GEV.


EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE A QUIET DAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TAF LOCATIONS. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM
ARRIVES ON THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CIGS AND
VSBYS...WITH A CHANCE FOR -SHRA...-SHSN IN THE MOUNTAINS.

ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
AND OFF THE COAST SUNDAY...RETURNING US TO VFR.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK/MBS
AVIATION...PM/RAB/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 271440 AAA
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
940 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT OUR WEATHER THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS...ALONG WITH SOME
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A CLIPPER FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 935 AM EST TUESDAY...

QUICK UPDATE TO DROP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS THE SW
WHERE BASICALLY ONLY SEEING FLURRIES AND NOT EXPECTING TO SEE MUCH
ADDED ACCUMULATION THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO LOWERED POPS AND ADJUSTED
CLOUDS A BIT ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST.

AS OF 700 AM EST TUESDAY...

CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. BAND OF LIGHT SNOW HAS MOVED EAST TOWARD I-85-I-95 IN VA.
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE NOW OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU IS AIMING TO
SEND MOST OF THE SNOWFALL TO THE SMOKYS THIS MORNING...SNEAKING UP
INTO THE NC HIGH COUNTRY. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES STILL
LOOK REASONABLE ACROSS THE TN/NC BORDER MTNS. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE MADE...EXCEPT ADJUSTING SKY COVER DOWN
SOME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NARROW AXIS OF PRECIP MOVING ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH SOME SNOW...BUT TEMPS RUNNING IN THE MID 30S WILL
ONLY RESULT IN A DUSTING AT MOST ON GRASSY SURFACES.
UPSTREAM...NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO KY WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TO
THE SRN APPALACHIANS BY MIDDAY. THIS WILL BRING A SHOT OF SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE NC MTNS NWD INTO SE WV. OVERALL...AMOUNTS WILL BE
LESS THAN 2 INCHES...BUT WILL KEEP THE CURRENT ADVISORY FOR THE NC
MTNS INTO GRAYSON GOING.

THIS WAVE WILL EXIT THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST AREAS CLEARING OUTSIDE
THE WRN SLOPES. THE FINAL PIECE OF ENERGY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.

THIS WAVE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE
UPSLOPE ZONES OF SE WV AS THE MAIN TRACK OF THE VORT IS FURTHER
NORTH. AN INCH OR TWO COULD FALL WITH THIS BUT NOT ADVISORY LEVELS.

IN ADDITION...MODELS SHOWING GOOD PRESSURE RISES WITH SUBSIDENCE
WITH THIS WAVE...THOUGH SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ORIENTATION AND 8H
WINDS NOT FAVORING A HIGH WIND EVENT. STILL COULD SEE A FEW HOURS
THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND ADJACENT AREAS
REACH 40 TO 45 MPH. WILL HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.

WILL BE MUCH COLDER TODAY IN THE MOUNTAINS...THANKS TO THE SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR HEADING IN WITH GUSTY WINDS. LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE 20S
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND INTO SE WV...TO AROUND 30 NEW RIVER
VALLEY...UPPER 30S ROANOKE...AND MID 40S SOUTHSIDE VA/NW NC PIEDMONT.

TONIGHT...WITH WINDS STAYING UP...SHOULD KEEP ENOUGH MIXING TO
PREVENT TEMPS FROM DROPPING REALLY FAR. STILL LOOKING AT TEENS WEST
TO LOWER 20S EAST...ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EST TUESDAY...

1029 MB SFC HIGH WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY.
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY...THUS
ENDING UPSLOPE SNOW FLURRIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL WARM
INTO THE UPPER 20S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S IN THE
SOUTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER WILL SHIFT
EAST OF OUR AREA...WHILE OUR NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM HEADS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WINDS WILL BACK AND INCREASE IN
SPEED. CLOUD COVER WILL START TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE A CHALLENGE
WITH WARM ADVECTION. FOLLOWED SUPERBLEND FOR LOWS WITH READINGS FROM
MID TEENS IN THE NORTHWEST VALLEYS TO MID AND UPPER 20S ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
COULD ALLOW FOR COOLER VALLEY MINIMUMS.

BY THURSDAY MORNING...THE LOW CENTER IS IN THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
TRAILING COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY. MOISTURE
ARRIVES EARLY ENOUGH IN THE FAR WEST TO ALLOW FOR LIGHT POPS FOR
SNOW...BEFORE BETTER POPS TO ARRIVE MIDDAY INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE WEST WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL VARY FROM THE MID 30S IN
THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE..UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW FLURRIES
EXPECTED FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS WITH BLUSTERY
NORTHWEST WINDS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE WEST OF AN INCH OR TWO
MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS. LOW
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 20 DEGREES IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EST TUESDAY...

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO MUCH BELOW THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...ALONG WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.

UPPER LEVELS WILL BE EVOLVING TO MORE OF A DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM.
THE LATEST INDICATIONS POINT TO A COLDER MORE AMPLIFIED EASTERN TROF
DEVELOPING AS PER THE ECMWF...AND SPLIT FLOW OUT WEST WITH A RIDGE
FOR THE PACIFIC NW AND A CUTOFF LOW REGENERATING OVER THE BAJA
PENINSULA.

THE SNOW SHOWERS AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY. 1036
MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FOR SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST SUNDAY. MOISTURE AHEAD AND ALONG THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING VERY STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS TO USHER IN A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR AND COLD
TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.  THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH THIS MESSAGE AND NAEFS ANOMALIES NOW SUPPORT THE GFS
TREND TOWARD THIS SOLUTION SO CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN THIS COLD
OUTBREAK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM EST TUESDAY...

TERMINALS THIS PERIOD WILL STAY VFR...EXCEPT AT BLF/LWB WHERE A
PERIOD OF MVFR WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING...THEN AGAIN TONIGHT WITH
NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE
ROA/BCB/BLF TAF...WITH STRONGER GUSTS EXPECT THIS EVENING AS FINAL
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS. SOME GUSTS TO 35 KTS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION AT AIRPORTS LIKE HLX-GEV.


EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE A QUIET DAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TAF LOCATIONS. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM
ARRIVES ON THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CIGS AND
VSBYS...WITH A CHANCE FOR -SHRA...-SHSN IN THE MOUNTAINS.

ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
AND OFF THE COAST SUNDAY...RETURNING US TO VFR.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK/MBS
AVIATION...PM/RAB/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 271440 AAA
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
940 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT OUR WEATHER THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS...ALONG WITH SOME
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A CLIPPER FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 935 AM EST TUESDAY...

QUICK UPDATE TO DROP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS THE SW
WHERE BASICALLY ONLY SEEING FLURRIES AND NOT EXPECTING TO SEE MUCH
ADDED ACCUMULATION THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO LOWERED POPS AND ADJUSTED
CLOUDS A BIT ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST.

AS OF 700 AM EST TUESDAY...

CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. BAND OF LIGHT SNOW HAS MOVED EAST TOWARD I-85-I-95 IN VA.
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE NOW OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU IS AIMING TO
SEND MOST OF THE SNOWFALL TO THE SMOKYS THIS MORNING...SNEAKING UP
INTO THE NC HIGH COUNTRY. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES STILL
LOOK REASONABLE ACROSS THE TN/NC BORDER MTNS. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE MADE...EXCEPT ADJUSTING SKY COVER DOWN
SOME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NARROW AXIS OF PRECIP MOVING ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH SOME SNOW...BUT TEMPS RUNNING IN THE MID 30S WILL
ONLY RESULT IN A DUSTING AT MOST ON GRASSY SURFACES.
UPSTREAM...NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO KY WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TO
THE SRN APPALACHIANS BY MIDDAY. THIS WILL BRING A SHOT OF SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE NC MTNS NWD INTO SE WV. OVERALL...AMOUNTS WILL BE
LESS THAN 2 INCHES...BUT WILL KEEP THE CURRENT ADVISORY FOR THE NC
MTNS INTO GRAYSON GOING.

THIS WAVE WILL EXIT THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST AREAS CLEARING OUTSIDE
THE WRN SLOPES. THE FINAL PIECE OF ENERGY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.

THIS WAVE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE
UPSLOPE ZONES OF SE WV AS THE MAIN TRACK OF THE VORT IS FURTHER
NORTH. AN INCH OR TWO COULD FALL WITH THIS BUT NOT ADVISORY LEVELS.

IN ADDITION...MODELS SHOWING GOOD PRESSURE RISES WITH SUBSIDENCE
WITH THIS WAVE...THOUGH SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ORIENTATION AND 8H
WINDS NOT FAVORING A HIGH WIND EVENT. STILL COULD SEE A FEW HOURS
THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND ADJACENT AREAS
REACH 40 TO 45 MPH. WILL HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.

WILL BE MUCH COLDER TODAY IN THE MOUNTAINS...THANKS TO THE SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR HEADING IN WITH GUSTY WINDS. LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE 20S
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND INTO SE WV...TO AROUND 30 NEW RIVER
VALLEY...UPPER 30S ROANOKE...AND MID 40S SOUTHSIDE VA/NW NC PIEDMONT.

TONIGHT...WITH WINDS STAYING UP...SHOULD KEEP ENOUGH MIXING TO
PREVENT TEMPS FROM DROPPING REALLY FAR. STILL LOOKING AT TEENS WEST
TO LOWER 20S EAST...ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EST TUESDAY...

1029 MB SFC HIGH WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY.
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY...THUS
ENDING UPSLOPE SNOW FLURRIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL WARM
INTO THE UPPER 20S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S IN THE
SOUTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER WILL SHIFT
EAST OF OUR AREA...WHILE OUR NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM HEADS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WINDS WILL BACK AND INCREASE IN
SPEED. CLOUD COVER WILL START TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE A CHALLENGE
WITH WARM ADVECTION. FOLLOWED SUPERBLEND FOR LOWS WITH READINGS FROM
MID TEENS IN THE NORTHWEST VALLEYS TO MID AND UPPER 20S ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
COULD ALLOW FOR COOLER VALLEY MINIMUMS.

BY THURSDAY MORNING...THE LOW CENTER IS IN THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
TRAILING COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY. MOISTURE
ARRIVES EARLY ENOUGH IN THE FAR WEST TO ALLOW FOR LIGHT POPS FOR
SNOW...BEFORE BETTER POPS TO ARRIVE MIDDAY INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE WEST WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL VARY FROM THE MID 30S IN
THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE..UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW FLURRIES
EXPECTED FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS WITH BLUSTERY
NORTHWEST WINDS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE WEST OF AN INCH OR TWO
MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS. LOW
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 20 DEGREES IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EST TUESDAY...

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO MUCH BELOW THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...ALONG WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.

UPPER LEVELS WILL BE EVOLVING TO MORE OF A DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM.
THE LATEST INDICATIONS POINT TO A COLDER MORE AMPLIFIED EASTERN TROF
DEVELOPING AS PER THE ECMWF...AND SPLIT FLOW OUT WEST WITH A RIDGE
FOR THE PACIFIC NW AND A CUTOFF LOW REGENERATING OVER THE BAJA
PENINSULA.

THE SNOW SHOWERS AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY. 1036
MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FOR SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST SUNDAY. MOISTURE AHEAD AND ALONG THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING VERY STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS TO USHER IN A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR AND COLD
TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.  THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH THIS MESSAGE AND NAEFS ANOMALIES NOW SUPPORT THE GFS
TREND TOWARD THIS SOLUTION SO CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN THIS COLD
OUTBREAK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM EST TUESDAY...

TERMINALS THIS PERIOD WILL STAY VFR...EXCEPT AT BLF/LWB WHERE A
PERIOD OF MVFR WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING...THEN AGAIN TONIGHT WITH
NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE
ROA/BCB/BLF TAF...WITH STRONGER GUSTS EXPECT THIS EVENING AS FINAL
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS. SOME GUSTS TO 35 KTS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION AT AIRPORTS LIKE HLX-GEV.


EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE A QUIET DAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TAF LOCATIONS. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM
ARRIVES ON THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CIGS AND
VSBYS...WITH A CHANCE FOR -SHRA...-SHSN IN THE MOUNTAINS.

ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
AND OFF THE COAST SUNDAY...RETURNING US TO VFR.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK/MBS
AVIATION...PM/RAB/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 271440 AAA
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
940 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT OUR WEATHER THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS...ALONG WITH SOME
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A CLIPPER FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 935 AM EST TUESDAY...

QUICK UPDATE TO DROP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS THE SW
WHERE BASICALLY ONLY SEEING FLURRIES AND NOT EXPECTING TO SEE MUCH
ADDED ACCUMULATION THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO LOWERED POPS AND ADJUSTED
CLOUDS A BIT ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST.

AS OF 700 AM EST TUESDAY...

CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. BAND OF LIGHT SNOW HAS MOVED EAST TOWARD I-85-I-95 IN VA.
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE NOW OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU IS AIMING TO
SEND MOST OF THE SNOWFALL TO THE SMOKYS THIS MORNING...SNEAKING UP
INTO THE NC HIGH COUNTRY. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES STILL
LOOK REASONABLE ACROSS THE TN/NC BORDER MTNS. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE MADE...EXCEPT ADJUSTING SKY COVER DOWN
SOME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NARROW AXIS OF PRECIP MOVING ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH SOME SNOW...BUT TEMPS RUNNING IN THE MID 30S WILL
ONLY RESULT IN A DUSTING AT MOST ON GRASSY SURFACES.
UPSTREAM...NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO KY WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TO
THE SRN APPALACHIANS BY MIDDAY. THIS WILL BRING A SHOT OF SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE NC MTNS NWD INTO SE WV. OVERALL...AMOUNTS WILL BE
LESS THAN 2 INCHES...BUT WILL KEEP THE CURRENT ADVISORY FOR THE NC
MTNS INTO GRAYSON GOING.

THIS WAVE WILL EXIT THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST AREAS CLEARING OUTSIDE
THE WRN SLOPES. THE FINAL PIECE OF ENERGY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.

THIS WAVE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE
UPSLOPE ZONES OF SE WV AS THE MAIN TRACK OF THE VORT IS FURTHER
NORTH. AN INCH OR TWO COULD FALL WITH THIS BUT NOT ADVISORY LEVELS.

IN ADDITION...MODELS SHOWING GOOD PRESSURE RISES WITH SUBSIDENCE
WITH THIS WAVE...THOUGH SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ORIENTATION AND 8H
WINDS NOT FAVORING A HIGH WIND EVENT. STILL COULD SEE A FEW HOURS
THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND ADJACENT AREAS
REACH 40 TO 45 MPH. WILL HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.

WILL BE MUCH COLDER TODAY IN THE MOUNTAINS...THANKS TO THE SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR HEADING IN WITH GUSTY WINDS. LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE 20S
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND INTO SE WV...TO AROUND 30 NEW RIVER
VALLEY...UPPER 30S ROANOKE...AND MID 40S SOUTHSIDE VA/NW NC PIEDMONT.

TONIGHT...WITH WINDS STAYING UP...SHOULD KEEP ENOUGH MIXING TO
PREVENT TEMPS FROM DROPPING REALLY FAR. STILL LOOKING AT TEENS WEST
TO LOWER 20S EAST...ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EST TUESDAY...

1029 MB SFC HIGH WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY.
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY...THUS
ENDING UPSLOPE SNOW FLURRIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL WARM
INTO THE UPPER 20S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S IN THE
SOUTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER WILL SHIFT
EAST OF OUR AREA...WHILE OUR NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM HEADS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WINDS WILL BACK AND INCREASE IN
SPEED. CLOUD COVER WILL START TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE A CHALLENGE
WITH WARM ADVECTION. FOLLOWED SUPERBLEND FOR LOWS WITH READINGS FROM
MID TEENS IN THE NORTHWEST VALLEYS TO MID AND UPPER 20S ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
COULD ALLOW FOR COOLER VALLEY MINIMUMS.

BY THURSDAY MORNING...THE LOW CENTER IS IN THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
TRAILING COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY. MOISTURE
ARRIVES EARLY ENOUGH IN THE FAR WEST TO ALLOW FOR LIGHT POPS FOR
SNOW...BEFORE BETTER POPS TO ARRIVE MIDDAY INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE WEST WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL VARY FROM THE MID 30S IN
THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE..UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW FLURRIES
EXPECTED FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS WITH BLUSTERY
NORTHWEST WINDS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE WEST OF AN INCH OR TWO
MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS. LOW
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 20 DEGREES IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EST TUESDAY...

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO MUCH BELOW THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...ALONG WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.

UPPER LEVELS WILL BE EVOLVING TO MORE OF A DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM.
THE LATEST INDICATIONS POINT TO A COLDER MORE AMPLIFIED EASTERN TROF
DEVELOPING AS PER THE ECMWF...AND SPLIT FLOW OUT WEST WITH A RIDGE
FOR THE PACIFIC NW AND A CUTOFF LOW REGENERATING OVER THE BAJA
PENINSULA.

THE SNOW SHOWERS AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY. 1036
MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FOR SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST SUNDAY. MOISTURE AHEAD AND ALONG THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING VERY STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS TO USHER IN A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR AND COLD
TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.  THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH THIS MESSAGE AND NAEFS ANOMALIES NOW SUPPORT THE GFS
TREND TOWARD THIS SOLUTION SO CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN THIS COLD
OUTBREAK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM EST TUESDAY...

TERMINALS THIS PERIOD WILL STAY VFR...EXCEPT AT BLF/LWB WHERE A
PERIOD OF MVFR WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING...THEN AGAIN TONIGHT WITH
NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE
ROA/BCB/BLF TAF...WITH STRONGER GUSTS EXPECT THIS EVENING AS FINAL
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS. SOME GUSTS TO 35 KTS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION AT AIRPORTS LIKE HLX-GEV.


EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE A QUIET DAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TAF LOCATIONS. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM
ARRIVES ON THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CIGS AND
VSBYS...WITH A CHANCE FOR -SHRA...-SHSN IN THE MOUNTAINS.

ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
AND OFF THE COAST SUNDAY...RETURNING US TO VFR.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK/MBS
AVIATION...PM/RAB/WP



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271435
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
935 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS
NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WINTER WX ADVSRYS HAVE BEEN SCALED BACK THIS MORNG AS THE SNOW HAS
ENDED IN SOME AREAS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THRU THE LATE MORNG
HRS. ALSO ADDED AN SPS FOR AREAS S OF THE ADVSRY AREA WHERE UP TO
ONE INCH OF ACCUMULATION IS PSBL...BUT MAINLY ON GRASSY SFCS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATE TO CLEAR MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE COUNTIES FROM WITNER
WX ADVISORY BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. GIVEN LATEST REPORTS AND
TRAFFIC CAMS IN METRO RIC/ORF AREAS, WILL CONTINUE THEM ELSWEHERE.

EARLY MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING NARROW BAND OF PCPN DROPPING
SOUTH FROM CENTRAL PA SOUTH INTO EASTERN/CENTRAL VA. VSBY AVGG
2-4SM IN SN, AND WE`VE RECEIVED QUITE A FEW REPORTS ~1 AND A FEW
IN THE 1 1/2 TO 2" ALONG THE NORTHERN NECK INTO THE PENINSULA.
TRAFFIC CAMS SHOWING AT LEAST A COATING INTO THE TIDEWATER AREA
(CONFIRMED BY LOCAL COOPERATIVE OBSERVER). WE WILL BE MAINTAINING
WINTER HEADLINES FOR A LITTLE LONGER, WITH THIS BAND OF SNSH WELL
HANDLED BY THE HRRR EARLY THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY LOCALES
IN NORFOLK OR RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE ANY MORE THAN AN
INCH...BUT WITH THE HEADLINE ALREADY IN PLACE AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW TO CAUSE SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...DON`T
FEEL DROPPING THE HEADLINES IS PRUDENT ATTM. WL REVISIT HEADLINES
AT 7AM UPDATE. DO EXPECT DAY CREW WILL BE ABLE TO CLEAR HEADLINES
SHORTLY AFTER 14Z IF NOT SOONER.

HAVE BUMPED POPS UP IN TO CATEGORICAL RANGE FOR COASTAL NE NC, AND
GRADUALLY TAPERED THEM OFF ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE BY MID-LATE
MORNING. DROPPED POPS INTO NO HIGHER THAN 20% BUT HAVE KEPT
FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST FOR FAR WESTERN ZONES, AS ACCUMS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

INTENSIFYING SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE INTO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL POPS DROP OFF BY EARLY AFTN, WITH STRONG CAA
BRINGING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS (25-30MPH GUSTS ALONG THE
COAST/ERN SHORE), AND HOLDING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S (~40
IN THE PIEDMONT) UNDER A CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW PULLS TOWARDS ATLANTIC
CANADA AS COLD SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. CLEARING
SKY AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS WILL ALLOW EARLY MORNING
LOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE THE 20S FOR MOST, W/ WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL WITH SHALLOW MIXING AND A NNE WIND. HIGHS
ONLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR
30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST.

RAIN CHCS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THU/THU NGT AS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS TO
THE GREAT LAKES, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND BY LATE THU NGT. DAY BEGINS
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS. BEST FORCING
REMAINS OFF TO THE NORTH, SO HAVE CAPPED POP AT NO HIGHER THAN 30%
FOR NOW. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH THU NGT AS SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA. FOR HIGHS, SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW
FOR A MODEST WARMUP WITH MAXIMA IN THE U30S ERN SHORE/NRN
NECK...LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND AND U40S FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NW AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK
MOVING FRONTAL WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT
TO SEA MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT
THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES AS OF 12Z...WITH EITHER LOW
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. SOME VARIABILITY IS ANTICIPATED
IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 15Z AND HAVE GONE WITH TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS
FOR MOST TAF SITES THROUGH 14-15Z. GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO AROUND 25
KT AT ORF/KECG...AROUND 20 KT ELSEWHERE.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 15Z...WITH CIGS LIFTING
TO 1500-2500 FT THEREAFTER. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE NW AND REMAIN
GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. A
WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT/EARLY
FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...DOWNGRADED THE GALE WARNING TO SCA FLAGS FOR NRN COASTAL
WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO PARRAMORE ISLAND. WIND GUSTS HAVE
STRUGGLED TO REACH 34KT OR GREATER AT SFC BUOYS. SCA FOR NRN WATERS
WILL NOW BE IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AFTER WHICH
WINDS AND PRIMARILY SEAS WILL DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STRONG COASTAL LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES
EAST OF ATLANTIC CITY NJ AS OF 4 AM. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS VERY TIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE ADDED
CAA AND DIURNAL EFFECTS ARE CAUSING N-NW WINDS TO EXPERIENCE A BRIEF
SURGE IN SPEEDS. SEAS HAVE QUICKLY RISEN TO 8-12FT IN SRN COASTAL
WATERS AS WELL. THE SURGE IN WINDS/SEAS IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF...
LASTING THROUGH SUNRISE...AFTER WHICH WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY
AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS AFTN TO 5-7FT SRN
WATERS/6-10FT NRN WATERS...AS THE LOW TRACKS NE AND AWAY FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. FOR TONIGHT...THE STRONG LOW TRACKS TWD THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...
KEEPING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. PRESSURE RISES
AROUND 3MB THIS EVENING (OCCURRING BTWN 21Z TODAY AND 06Z TONIGHT)...
INDICATE THAT ANOTHER NWLY SURGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 30KT IS POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING FOR THE BAY/OCEAN AS CAA AND WRAPAROUND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TRAVERSE THE WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON WED.
CONTINUED CAA WILL KEEP NW WINDS ELEVATED WITHIN SCA THRESHOLDS
OVER ALL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL SHOW A MARKED
DECREASE TO 4-5FT BY WED AFTN. ONLY CHANGE MADE TO SCA FLAGS WAS
TO EXTEND CHES BAY AND SRN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 10 PM WED
EVENING BEFORE WINDS/SEAS FALL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. SEAS CONTINUE
TO SUBSIDE THRU WED EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE
WATERS. A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION ON THU WILL SHUNT
THE HIGH OVER THE SE COAST. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CLIPPER IS THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY POTENTIALLY SOLID SCA CONDITIONS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OCEAN CITY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...FELL
SHORT OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS AS WINDS SHIFTED FASTER THAN
EXPECTED FROM ONSHORE E/NE MON AFTN TO OFFSHORE N/NW. DEPARTURES
HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. MDL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPCOMING TIDE THIS AFTN REACHING ABOVE 4 FT
MLLW...BUT THIS APPEARS WELL OVERDONE GIVEN THE N/NW WIND
DIRECTION AND CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. NAM- BASED CBOFS GUIDANCE IS
RUNNING ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER THAN REALITY...BUT IN TERMS OF TREND
SHOWS THE TIDE THIS AFTN TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE HIGH TIDE
EARLIER THIS MORNING THAT ONLY PEAKED AT 3.7 FT MLLW. HAVE ISSUED
A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT RATHER THAN AN ADVISORY AT THIS POINT
GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE OFFSHORE WIND FLOW.

ACRS THE LOWER BAY DEPARTURES ARE ALSO RUNNING AS HIGH AS 1.5 TO 2
FEET...BUT THIS STILL LEADS TO TIDES FALLING AT LEAST 0.5 FT SHY
OF MINOR FLOODING THIS AFTN. DEPARTURES WILL FALL TONIGHT INTO WED
WITH NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ081-089-
     093-096.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ070-071.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAS/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...BMD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271435
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
935 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS
NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WINTER WX ADVSRYS HAVE BEEN SCALED BACK THIS MORNG AS THE SNOW HAS
ENDED IN SOME AREAS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THRU THE LATE MORNG
HRS. ALSO ADDED AN SPS FOR AREAS S OF THE ADVSRY AREA WHERE UP TO
ONE INCH OF ACCUMULATION IS PSBL...BUT MAINLY ON GRASSY SFCS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATE TO CLEAR MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE COUNTIES FROM WITNER
WX ADVISORY BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. GIVEN LATEST REPORTS AND
TRAFFIC CAMS IN METRO RIC/ORF AREAS, WILL CONTINUE THEM ELSWEHERE.

EARLY MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING NARROW BAND OF PCPN DROPPING
SOUTH FROM CENTRAL PA SOUTH INTO EASTERN/CENTRAL VA. VSBY AVGG
2-4SM IN SN, AND WE`VE RECEIVED QUITE A FEW REPORTS ~1 AND A FEW
IN THE 1 1/2 TO 2" ALONG THE NORTHERN NECK INTO THE PENINSULA.
TRAFFIC CAMS SHOWING AT LEAST A COATING INTO THE TIDEWATER AREA
(CONFIRMED BY LOCAL COOPERATIVE OBSERVER). WE WILL BE MAINTAINING
WINTER HEADLINES FOR A LITTLE LONGER, WITH THIS BAND OF SNSH WELL
HANDLED BY THE HRRR EARLY THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY LOCALES
IN NORFOLK OR RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE ANY MORE THAN AN
INCH...BUT WITH THE HEADLINE ALREADY IN PLACE AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW TO CAUSE SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...DON`T
FEEL DROPPING THE HEADLINES IS PRUDENT ATTM. WL REVISIT HEADLINES
AT 7AM UPDATE. DO EXPECT DAY CREW WILL BE ABLE TO CLEAR HEADLINES
SHORTLY AFTER 14Z IF NOT SOONER.

HAVE BUMPED POPS UP IN TO CATEGORICAL RANGE FOR COASTAL NE NC, AND
GRADUALLY TAPERED THEM OFF ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE BY MID-LATE
MORNING. DROPPED POPS INTO NO HIGHER THAN 20% BUT HAVE KEPT
FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST FOR FAR WESTERN ZONES, AS ACCUMS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

INTENSIFYING SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE INTO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL POPS DROP OFF BY EARLY AFTN, WITH STRONG CAA
BRINGING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS (25-30MPH GUSTS ALONG THE
COAST/ERN SHORE), AND HOLDING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S (~40
IN THE PIEDMONT) UNDER A CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW PULLS TOWARDS ATLANTIC
CANADA AS COLD SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. CLEARING
SKY AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS WILL ALLOW EARLY MORNING
LOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE THE 20S FOR MOST, W/ WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL WITH SHALLOW MIXING AND A NNE WIND. HIGHS
ONLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR
30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST.

RAIN CHCS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THU/THU NGT AS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS TO
THE GREAT LAKES, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND BY LATE THU NGT. DAY BEGINS
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS. BEST FORCING
REMAINS OFF TO THE NORTH, SO HAVE CAPPED POP AT NO HIGHER THAN 30%
FOR NOW. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH THU NGT AS SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA. FOR HIGHS, SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW
FOR A MODEST WARMUP WITH MAXIMA IN THE U30S ERN SHORE/NRN
NECK...LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND AND U40S FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NW AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK
MOVING FRONTAL WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT
TO SEA MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT
THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES AS OF 12Z...WITH EITHER LOW
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. SOME VARIABILITY IS ANTICIPATED
IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 15Z AND HAVE GONE WITH TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS
FOR MOST TAF SITES THROUGH 14-15Z. GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO AROUND 25
KT AT ORF/KECG...AROUND 20 KT ELSEWHERE.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 15Z...WITH CIGS LIFTING
TO 1500-2500 FT THEREAFTER. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE NW AND REMAIN
GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. A
WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT/EARLY
FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...DOWNGRADED THE GALE WARNING TO SCA FLAGS FOR NRN COASTAL
WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO PARRAMORE ISLAND. WIND GUSTS HAVE
STRUGGLED TO REACH 34KT OR GREATER AT SFC BUOYS. SCA FOR NRN WATERS
WILL NOW BE IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AFTER WHICH
WINDS AND PRIMARILY SEAS WILL DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STRONG COASTAL LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES
EAST OF ATLANTIC CITY NJ AS OF 4 AM. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS VERY TIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE ADDED
CAA AND DIURNAL EFFECTS ARE CAUSING N-NW WINDS TO EXPERIENCE A BRIEF
SURGE IN SPEEDS. SEAS HAVE QUICKLY RISEN TO 8-12FT IN SRN COASTAL
WATERS AS WELL. THE SURGE IN WINDS/SEAS IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF...
LASTING THROUGH SUNRISE...AFTER WHICH WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY
AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS AFTN TO 5-7FT SRN
WATERS/6-10FT NRN WATERS...AS THE LOW TRACKS NE AND AWAY FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. FOR TONIGHT...THE STRONG LOW TRACKS TWD THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...
KEEPING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. PRESSURE RISES
AROUND 3MB THIS EVENING (OCCURRING BTWN 21Z TODAY AND 06Z TONIGHT)...
INDICATE THAT ANOTHER NWLY SURGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 30KT IS POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING FOR THE BAY/OCEAN AS CAA AND WRAPAROUND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TRAVERSE THE WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON WED.
CONTINUED CAA WILL KEEP NW WINDS ELEVATED WITHIN SCA THRESHOLDS
OVER ALL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL SHOW A MARKED
DECREASE TO 4-5FT BY WED AFTN. ONLY CHANGE MADE TO SCA FLAGS WAS
TO EXTEND CHES BAY AND SRN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 10 PM WED
EVENING BEFORE WINDS/SEAS FALL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. SEAS CONTINUE
TO SUBSIDE THRU WED EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE
WATERS. A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION ON THU WILL SHUNT
THE HIGH OVER THE SE COAST. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CLIPPER IS THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY POTENTIALLY SOLID SCA CONDITIONS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OCEAN CITY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...FELL
SHORT OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS AS WINDS SHIFTED FASTER THAN
EXPECTED FROM ONSHORE E/NE MON AFTN TO OFFSHORE N/NW. DEPARTURES
HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. MDL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPCOMING TIDE THIS AFTN REACHING ABOVE 4 FT
MLLW...BUT THIS APPEARS WELL OVERDONE GIVEN THE N/NW WIND
DIRECTION AND CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. NAM- BASED CBOFS GUIDANCE IS
RUNNING ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER THAN REALITY...BUT IN TERMS OF TREND
SHOWS THE TIDE THIS AFTN TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE HIGH TIDE
EARLIER THIS MORNING THAT ONLY PEAKED AT 3.7 FT MLLW. HAVE ISSUED
A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT RATHER THAN AN ADVISORY AT THIS POINT
GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE OFFSHORE WIND FLOW.

ACRS THE LOWER BAY DEPARTURES ARE ALSO RUNNING AS HIGH AS 1.5 TO 2
FEET...BUT THIS STILL LEADS TO TIDES FALLING AT LEAST 0.5 FT SHY
OF MINOR FLOODING THIS AFTN. DEPARTURES WILL FALL TONIGHT INTO WED
WITH NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ081-089-
     093-096.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ070-071.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAS/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...BMD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS61 KLWX 271356 AAD
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
856 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
WEDNESDAY BEFORE A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH LATER THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...EXPIRING THE REMAINDER OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
THE LINGERING SNOW BAND ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
BLUE RIDGE BUT NOT EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE MORE THAN TRACE OR VERY
LIGHT AMNTS.

FROM PREV DISC...
INTENSE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY
FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT AREAS MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS. ENERGY FROM A NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST
WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW BANDS GOING THRU LATE MRNG.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR TODAY.
WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
MPH...SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER THE RIDGETOPS. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S WILL
CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE TEENS AND 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

A COLD AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL FALL BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OUT WEST TO THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S EAST. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REDUCE WIND CHILLS INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO SUNSHINE AND LESS WIND. TEMPERATURE
WILL BE SLOW TO RISE AS COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 20S OVER THE NORTH AND WEST
TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING DRY
AND COLD CONDITIONS. WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE WITH THE
MIN TEMPS DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS
ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND...TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S IN
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE PASSING
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. A PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
REGION FRIDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM AND IT WILL BE QUITE COLD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
BUT IT WILL REMAIN COLD.

LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION. DETAILS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN THIS
FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN LOW CIGS AND VSBY
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SNOW BANDS. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LIFT TO VFR
LATER TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION AND
SUBVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY...BUT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND GUSTS ON THE WATERS WILL REACH 25 TO 30 KTS AS LOW PRESSURE
PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC. THE GRADIENT WILL BE SLOW TO RELAX AND SCA
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
WATERS FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE WATERS FRIDAY...BUT GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AND A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...KRW/BJL






000
FXUS61 KLWX 271356 AAD
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
856 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
WEDNESDAY BEFORE A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH LATER THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...EXPIRING THE REMAINDER OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
THE LINGERING SNOW BAND ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
BLUE RIDGE BUT NOT EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE MORE THAN TRACE OR VERY
LIGHT AMNTS.

FROM PREV DISC...
INTENSE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY
FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT AREAS MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS. ENERGY FROM A NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST
WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW BANDS GOING THRU LATE MRNG.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR TODAY.
WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
MPH...SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER THE RIDGETOPS. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S WILL
CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE TEENS AND 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

A COLD AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL FALL BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OUT WEST TO THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S EAST. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REDUCE WIND CHILLS INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO SUNSHINE AND LESS WIND. TEMPERATURE
WILL BE SLOW TO RISE AS COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 20S OVER THE NORTH AND WEST
TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING DRY
AND COLD CONDITIONS. WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE WITH THE
MIN TEMPS DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS
ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND...TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S IN
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE PASSING
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. A PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
REGION FRIDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM AND IT WILL BE QUITE COLD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
BUT IT WILL REMAIN COLD.

LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION. DETAILS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN THIS
FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN LOW CIGS AND VSBY
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SNOW BANDS. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LIFT TO VFR
LATER TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION AND
SUBVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY...BUT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND GUSTS ON THE WATERS WILL REACH 25 TO 30 KTS AS LOW PRESSURE
PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC. THE GRADIENT WILL BE SLOW TO RELAX AND SCA
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
WATERS FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE WATERS FRIDAY...BUT GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AND A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...KRW/BJL






000
FXUS61 KLWX 271356 AAD
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
856 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
WEDNESDAY BEFORE A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH LATER THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...EXPIRING THE REMAINDER OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
THE LINGERING SNOW BAND ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
BLUE RIDGE BUT NOT EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE MORE THAN TRACE OR VERY
LIGHT AMNTS.

FROM PREV DISC...
INTENSE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY
FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT AREAS MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS. ENERGY FROM A NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST
WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW BANDS GOING THRU LATE MRNG.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR TODAY.
WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
MPH...SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER THE RIDGETOPS. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S WILL
CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE TEENS AND 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

A COLD AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL FALL BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OUT WEST TO THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S EAST. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REDUCE WIND CHILLS INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO SUNSHINE AND LESS WIND. TEMPERATURE
WILL BE SLOW TO RISE AS COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 20S OVER THE NORTH AND WEST
TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING DRY
AND COLD CONDITIONS. WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE WITH THE
MIN TEMPS DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS
ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND...TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S IN
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE PASSING
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. A PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
REGION FRIDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM AND IT WILL BE QUITE COLD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
BUT IT WILL REMAIN COLD.

LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION. DETAILS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN THIS
FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN LOW CIGS AND VSBY
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SNOW BANDS. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LIFT TO VFR
LATER TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION AND
SUBVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY...BUT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND GUSTS ON THE WATERS WILL REACH 25 TO 30 KTS AS LOW PRESSURE
PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC. THE GRADIENT WILL BE SLOW TO RELAX AND SCA
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
WATERS FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE WATERS FRIDAY...BUT GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AND A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...KRW/BJL






000
FXUS61 KLWX 271356 AAD
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
856 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
WEDNESDAY BEFORE A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH LATER THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...EXPIRING THE REMAINDER OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
THE LINGERING SNOW BAND ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
BLUE RIDGE BUT NOT EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE MORE THAN TRACE OR VERY
LIGHT AMNTS.

FROM PREV DISC...
INTENSE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY
FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT AREAS MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS. ENERGY FROM A NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST
WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW BANDS GOING THRU LATE MRNG.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR TODAY.
WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
MPH...SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER THE RIDGETOPS. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S WILL
CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE TEENS AND 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

A COLD AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL FALL BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OUT WEST TO THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S EAST. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REDUCE WIND CHILLS INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO SUNSHINE AND LESS WIND. TEMPERATURE
WILL BE SLOW TO RISE AS COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 20S OVER THE NORTH AND WEST
TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING DRY
AND COLD CONDITIONS. WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE WITH THE
MIN TEMPS DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS
ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND...TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S IN
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE PASSING
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. A PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
REGION FRIDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM AND IT WILL BE QUITE COLD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
BUT IT WILL REMAIN COLD.

LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION. DETAILS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN THIS
FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN LOW CIGS AND VSBY
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SNOW BANDS. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LIFT TO VFR
LATER TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION AND
SUBVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY...BUT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND GUSTS ON THE WATERS WILL REACH 25 TO 30 KTS AS LOW PRESSURE
PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC. THE GRADIENT WILL BE SLOW TO RELAX AND SCA
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
WATERS FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE WATERS FRIDAY...BUT GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AND A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...KRW/BJL






000
FXUS61 KLWX 271316 AAC
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
816 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
WEDNESDAY BEFORE A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH LATER THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...EXPIRING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR AND PORTIONS OF N CNTRL MD. THE PORTION THAT REMAINS IN
EFFECT IS ACROSS THE SPINE OF THE BLUE RIDGE FROM THE NRN SHEN VLY
TO THE NRN VA PIEDMONT - THRU 10 AM.

FROM PREV DISC...
INTENSE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY
FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT AREAS MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS. ENERGY FROM A NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST
WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW BANDS GOING THRU LATE MRNG.

FALLING SNOW AND SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE SLIPPERY
TRAVEL. THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY WILL PULL INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY WITH ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES COMING TO AN END. A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL HANG ON
OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT BUT SHOULD NOT
AMOUNT TO VERY MUCH DURING TODAY.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR TODAY.
WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
MPH...SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER THE RIDGETOPS. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S WILL
CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE TEENS AND 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

A COLD AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL FALL BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OUT WEST TO THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S EAST. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REDUCE WIND CHILLS INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO SUNSHINE AND LESS WIND. TEMPERATURE
WILL BE SLOW TO RISE AS COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 20S OVER THE NORTH AND WEST
TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING DRY
AND COLD CONDITIONS. WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE WITH THE
MIN TEMPS DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS
ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND...TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S IN
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE PASSING
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. A PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
REGION FRIDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM AND IT WILL BE QUITE COLD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
BUT IT WILL REMAIN COLD.

LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION. DETAILS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN THIS
FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN LOW CIGS AND VSBY
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SNOW BANDS. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LIFT TO VFR
LATER TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION AND
SUBVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY...BUT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND GUSTS ON THE WATERS WILL REACH 25 TO 30 KTS AS LOW PRESSURE
PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC. THE GRADIENT WILL BE SLOW TO RELAX AND SCA
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
WATERS FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE WATERS FRIDAY...BUT GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AND A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MDZ003-004-503.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ028-031-039-040-050>052-055-056-501-502-505-506.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ051>053.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...KRW/BJL








000
FXUS61 KLWX 271316 AAC
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
816 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
WEDNESDAY BEFORE A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH LATER THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...EXPIRING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR AND PORTIONS OF N CNTRL MD. THE PORTION THAT REMAINS IN
EFFECT IS ACROSS THE SPINE OF THE BLUE RIDGE FROM THE NRN SHEN VLY
TO THE NRN VA PIEDMONT - THRU 10 AM.

FROM PREV DISC...
INTENSE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY
FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT AREAS MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS. ENERGY FROM A NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST
WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW BANDS GOING THRU LATE MRNG.

FALLING SNOW AND SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE SLIPPERY
TRAVEL. THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY WILL PULL INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY WITH ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES COMING TO AN END. A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL HANG ON
OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT BUT SHOULD NOT
AMOUNT TO VERY MUCH DURING TODAY.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR TODAY.
WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
MPH...SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER THE RIDGETOPS. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S WILL
CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE TEENS AND 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

A COLD AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL FALL BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OUT WEST TO THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S EAST. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REDUCE WIND CHILLS INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO SUNSHINE AND LESS WIND. TEMPERATURE
WILL BE SLOW TO RISE AS COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 20S OVER THE NORTH AND WEST
TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING DRY
AND COLD CONDITIONS. WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE WITH THE
MIN TEMPS DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS
ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND...TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S IN
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE PASSING
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. A PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
REGION FRIDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM AND IT WILL BE QUITE COLD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
BUT IT WILL REMAIN COLD.

LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION. DETAILS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN THIS
FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN LOW CIGS AND VSBY
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SNOW BANDS. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LIFT TO VFR
LATER TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION AND
SUBVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY...BUT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND GUSTS ON THE WATERS WILL REACH 25 TO 30 KTS AS LOW PRESSURE
PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC. THE GRADIENT WILL BE SLOW TO RELAX AND SCA
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
WATERS FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE WATERS FRIDAY...BUT GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AND A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MDZ003-004-503.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ028-031-039-040-050>052-055-056-501-502-505-506.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ051>053.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...KRW/BJL








000
FXUS61 KLWX 271316 AAC
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
816 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
WEDNESDAY BEFORE A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH LATER THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...EXPIRING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR AND PORTIONS OF N CNTRL MD. THE PORTION THAT REMAINS IN
EFFECT IS ACROSS THE SPINE OF THE BLUE RIDGE FROM THE NRN SHEN VLY
TO THE NRN VA PIEDMONT - THRU 10 AM.

FROM PREV DISC...
INTENSE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY
FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT AREAS MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS. ENERGY FROM A NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST
WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW BANDS GOING THRU LATE MRNG.

FALLING SNOW AND SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE SLIPPERY
TRAVEL. THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY WILL PULL INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY WITH ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES COMING TO AN END. A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL HANG ON
OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT BUT SHOULD NOT
AMOUNT TO VERY MUCH DURING TODAY.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR TODAY.
WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
MPH...SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER THE RIDGETOPS. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S WILL
CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE TEENS AND 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

A COLD AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL FALL BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OUT WEST TO THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S EAST. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REDUCE WIND CHILLS INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO SUNSHINE AND LESS WIND. TEMPERATURE
WILL BE SLOW TO RISE AS COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 20S OVER THE NORTH AND WEST
TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING DRY
AND COLD CONDITIONS. WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE WITH THE
MIN TEMPS DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS
ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND...TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S IN
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE PASSING
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. A PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
REGION FRIDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM AND IT WILL BE QUITE COLD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
BUT IT WILL REMAIN COLD.

LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION. DETAILS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN THIS
FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN LOW CIGS AND VSBY
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SNOW BANDS. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LIFT TO VFR
LATER TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION AND
SUBVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY...BUT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND GUSTS ON THE WATERS WILL REACH 25 TO 30 KTS AS LOW PRESSURE
PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC. THE GRADIENT WILL BE SLOW TO RELAX AND SCA
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
WATERS FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE WATERS FRIDAY...BUT GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AND A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MDZ003-004-503.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ028-031-039-040-050>052-055-056-501-502-505-506.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ051>053.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...KRW/BJL








000
FXUS61 KLWX 271316 AAC
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
816 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
WEDNESDAY BEFORE A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH LATER THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...EXPIRING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR AND PORTIONS OF N CNTRL MD. THE PORTION THAT REMAINS IN
EFFECT IS ACROSS THE SPINE OF THE BLUE RIDGE FROM THE NRN SHEN VLY
TO THE NRN VA PIEDMONT - THRU 10 AM.

FROM PREV DISC...
INTENSE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY
FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT AREAS MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS. ENERGY FROM A NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST
WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW BANDS GOING THRU LATE MRNG.

FALLING SNOW AND SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE SLIPPERY
TRAVEL. THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY WILL PULL INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY WITH ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES COMING TO AN END. A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL HANG ON
OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT BUT SHOULD NOT
AMOUNT TO VERY MUCH DURING TODAY.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR TODAY.
WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
MPH...SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER THE RIDGETOPS. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S WILL
CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE TEENS AND 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

A COLD AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL FALL BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OUT WEST TO THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S EAST. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REDUCE WIND CHILLS INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO SUNSHINE AND LESS WIND. TEMPERATURE
WILL BE SLOW TO RISE AS COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 20S OVER THE NORTH AND WEST
TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING DRY
AND COLD CONDITIONS. WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE WITH THE
MIN TEMPS DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS
ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND...TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S IN
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE PASSING
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. A PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
REGION FRIDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM AND IT WILL BE QUITE COLD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
BUT IT WILL REMAIN COLD.

LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION. DETAILS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN THIS
FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN LOW CIGS AND VSBY
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SNOW BANDS. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LIFT TO VFR
LATER TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION AND
SUBVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY...BUT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND GUSTS ON THE WATERS WILL REACH 25 TO 30 KTS AS LOW PRESSURE
PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC. THE GRADIENT WILL BE SLOW TO RELAX AND SCA
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
WATERS FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE WATERS FRIDAY...BUT GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AND A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MDZ003-004-503.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ028-031-039-040-050>052-055-056-501-502-505-506.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ051>053.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...KRW/BJL








000
FXUS61 KLWX 271300 AAB
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
800 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
WEDNESDAY BEFORE A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH LATER THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRU WED EVE.

FROM PREV DISC...
INTENSE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY
FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT AREAS MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS. ENERGY FROM A NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST
WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW BANDS GOING FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AND WILL
PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH TO ONE INCH OF SNOW IN SPOTS. WILL
KEEP ALL WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING.
FALLING SNOW AND SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE SLIPPERY
TRAVEL. THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY WILL PULL INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY WITH ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES COMING TO AN END. A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL HANG ON
OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT BUT SHOULD NOT
AMOUNT TO VERY MUCH DURING TODAY.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR TODAY.
WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
MPH...SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER THE RIDGETOPS. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S WILL
CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE TEENS AND 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

A COLD AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL FALL BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OUT WEST TO THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S EAST. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REDUCE WIND CHILLS INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO SUNSHINE AND LESS WIND. TEMPERATURE
WILL BE SLOW TO RISE AS COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 20S OVER THE NORTH AND WEST
TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING DRY
AND COLD CONDITIONS. WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE WITH THE
MIN TEMPS DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS
ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND...TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S IN
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE PASSING
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. A PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
REGION FRIDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM AND IT WILL BE QUITE COLD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
BUT IT WILL REMAIN COLD.

LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION. DETAILS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN THIS
FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN LOW CIGS AND VSBY
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SNOW BANDS. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LIFT TO VFR
LATER TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION AND
SUBVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY...BUT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE NOT INCREASED MUCH OVERNIGHT AND THEREFORE HAVE CANCELLED
THE GALE WARNING AND REPLACED IT WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
TODAY. WIND GUSTS ON THE WATERS WILL REACH 25 TO 30 KTS AS LOW
PRESSURE PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC. THE GRADIENT WILL BE SLOW TO RELAX AND SCA
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
WATERS FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE WATERS FRIDAY...BUT GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AND A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     DCZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MDZ003>006-011-013-014-016>018-503>508.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ028-031-039-040-050>057-501-502-505-506.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ051>053.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...KRW/BJL







000
FXUS61 KLWX 271300 AAB
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
800 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
WEDNESDAY BEFORE A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH LATER THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRU WED EVE.

FROM PREV DISC...
INTENSE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY
FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT AREAS MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS. ENERGY FROM A NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST
WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW BANDS GOING FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AND WILL
PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH TO ONE INCH OF SNOW IN SPOTS. WILL
KEEP ALL WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING.
FALLING SNOW AND SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE SLIPPERY
TRAVEL. THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY WILL PULL INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY WITH ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES COMING TO AN END. A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL HANG ON
OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT BUT SHOULD NOT
AMOUNT TO VERY MUCH DURING TODAY.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR TODAY.
WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
MPH...SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER THE RIDGETOPS. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S WILL
CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE TEENS AND 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

A COLD AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL FALL BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OUT WEST TO THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S EAST. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REDUCE WIND CHILLS INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO SUNSHINE AND LESS WIND. TEMPERATURE
WILL BE SLOW TO RISE AS COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 20S OVER THE NORTH AND WEST
TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING DRY
AND COLD CONDITIONS. WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE WITH THE
MIN TEMPS DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS
ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND...TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S IN
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE PASSING
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. A PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
REGION FRIDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM AND IT WILL BE QUITE COLD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
BUT IT WILL REMAIN COLD.

LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION. DETAILS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN THIS
FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN LOW CIGS AND VSBY
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SNOW BANDS. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LIFT TO VFR
LATER TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION AND
SUBVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY...BUT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE NOT INCREASED MUCH OVERNIGHT AND THEREFORE HAVE CANCELLED
THE GALE WARNING AND REPLACED IT WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
TODAY. WIND GUSTS ON THE WATERS WILL REACH 25 TO 30 KTS AS LOW
PRESSURE PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC. THE GRADIENT WILL BE SLOW TO RELAX AND SCA
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
WATERS FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE WATERS FRIDAY...BUT GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AND A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     DCZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MDZ003>006-011-013-014-016>018-503>508.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ028-031-039-040-050>057-501-502-505-506.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ051>053.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...KRW/BJL






000
FXUS61 KRNK 271215
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
715 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT OUR WEATHER THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS...ALONG WITH SOME
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A CLIPPER FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 AM EST TUESDAY...

CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. BAND OF LIGHT SNOW HAS MOVED EAST TOWARD I-85-I-95 IN VA.
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE NOW OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU IS AIMING TO
SEND MOST OF THE SNOWFALL TO THE SMOKYS THIS MORNING...SNEAKING UP
INTO THE NC HIGH COUNTRY. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES STILL
LOOK REASONABLE ACROSS THE TN/NC BORDER MTNS. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE MADE...EXCEPT ADJUSTING SKY COVER DOWN
SOME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NARROW AXIS OF PRECIP MOVING ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH SOME SNOW...BUT TEMPS RUNNING IN THE MID 30S WILL
ONLY RESULT IN A DUSTING AT MOST ON GRASSY SURFACES.
UPSTREAM...NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO KY WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TO
THE SRN APPALACHIANS BY MIDDAY. THIS WILL BRING A SHOT OF SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE NC MTNS NWD INTO SE WV. OVERALL...AMOUNTS WILL BE
LESS THAN 2 INCHES...BUT WILL KEEP THE CURRENT ADVISORY FOR THE NC
MTNS INTO GRAYSON GOING.

THIS WAVE WILL EXIT THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST AREAS CLEARING OUTSIDE
THE WRN SLOPES. THE FINAL PIECE OF ENERGY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.

THIS WAVE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE
UPSLOPE ZONES OF SE WV AS THE MAIN TRACK OF THE VORT IS FURTHER
NORTH. AN INCH OR TWO COULD FALL WITH THIS BUT NOT ADVISORY LEVELS.

IN ADDITION...MODELS SHOWING GOOD PRESSURE RISES WITH SUBSIDENCE
WITH THIS WAVE...THOUGH SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ORIENTATION AND 8H
WINDS NOT FAVORING A HIGH WIND EVENT. STILL COULD SEE A FEW HOURS
THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND ADJACENT AREAS
REACH 40 TO 45 MPH. WILL HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.

WILL BE MUCH COLDER TODAY IN THE MOUNTAINS...THANKS TO THE SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR HEADING IN WITH GUSTY WINDS. LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE 20S
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND INTO SE WV...TO AROUND 30 NEW RIVER
VALLEY...UPPER 30S ROANOKE...AND MID 40S SOUTHSIDE VA/NW NC PIEDMONT.

TONIGHT...WITH WINDS STAYING UP...SHOULD KEEP ENOUGH MIXING TO
PREVENT TEMPS FROM DROPPING REALLY FAR. STILL LOOKING AT TEENS WEST
TO LOWER 20S EAST...ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EST TUESDAY...

1029 MB SFC HIGH WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY.
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY...THUS
ENDING UPSLOPE SNOW FLURRIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL WARM
INTO THE UPPER 20S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S IN THE
SOUTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER WILL SHIFT
EAST OF OUR AREA...WHILE OUR NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM HEADS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WINDS WILL BACK AND INCREASE IN
SPEED. CLOUD COVER WILL START TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE A CHALLENGE
WITH WARM ADVECTION. FOLLOWED SUPERBLEND FOR LOWS WITH READINGS FROM
MID TEENS IN THE NORTHWEST VALLEYS TO MID AND UPPER 20S ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
COULD ALLOW FOR COOLER VALLEY MINIMUMS.

BY THURSDAY MORNING...THE LOW CENTER IS IN THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
TRAILING COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY. MOISTURE
ARRIVES EARLY ENOUGH IN THE FAR WEST TO ALLOW FOR LIGHT POPS FOR
SNOW...BEFORE BETTER POPS TO ARRIVE MIDDAY INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE WEST WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL VARY FROM THE MID 30S IN
THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE..UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW FLURRIES
EXPECTED FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS WITH BLUSTERY
NORTHWEST WINDS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE WEST OF AN INCH OR TWO
MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS. LOW
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 20 DEGREES IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EST TUESDAY...

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO MUCH BELOW THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...ALONG WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.

UPPER LEVELS WILL BE EVOLVING TO MORE OF A DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM.
THE LATEST INDICATIONS POINT TO A COLDER MORE AMPLIFIED EASTERN TROF
DEVELOPING AS PER THE ECMWF...AND SPLIT FLOW OUT WEST WITH A RIDGE
FOR THE PACIFIC NW AND A CUTOFF LOW REGENERATING OVER THE BAJA
PENINSULA.

THE SNOW SHOWERS AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY. 1036
MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FOR SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST SUNDAY. MOISTURE AHEAD AND ALONG THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING VERY STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS TO USHER IN A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR AND COLD
TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.  THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH THIS MESSAGE AND NAEFS ANOMALIES NOW SUPPORT THE GFS
TREND TOWARD THIS SOLUTION SO CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN THIS COLD
OUTBREAK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM EST TUESDAY...

TERMINALS THIS PERIOD WILL STAY VFR...EXCEPT AT BLF/LWB WHERE A
PERIOD OF MVFR WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING...THEN AGAIN TONIGHT WITH
NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE
ROA/BCB/BLF TAF...WITH STRONGER GUSTS EXPECT THIS EVENING AS FINAL
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS. SOME GUSTS TO 35 KTS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION AT AIRPORTS LIKE HLX-GEV.


EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE A QUIET DAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TAF LOCATIONS. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM
ARRIVES ON THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CIGS AND
VSBYS...WITH A CHANCE FOR -SHRA...-SHSN IN THE MOUNTAINS.

ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
AND OFF THE COAST SUNDAY...RETURNING US TO VFR.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ015.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK/MBS
AVIATION...PM/RAB/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 271215
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
715 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT OUR WEATHER THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS...ALONG WITH SOME
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A CLIPPER FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 AM EST TUESDAY...

CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. BAND OF LIGHT SNOW HAS MOVED EAST TOWARD I-85-I-95 IN VA.
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE NOW OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU IS AIMING TO
SEND MOST OF THE SNOWFALL TO THE SMOKYS THIS MORNING...SNEAKING UP
INTO THE NC HIGH COUNTRY. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES STILL
LOOK REASONABLE ACROSS THE TN/NC BORDER MTNS. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE MADE...EXCEPT ADJUSTING SKY COVER DOWN
SOME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NARROW AXIS OF PRECIP MOVING ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH SOME SNOW...BUT TEMPS RUNNING IN THE MID 30S WILL
ONLY RESULT IN A DUSTING AT MOST ON GRASSY SURFACES.
UPSTREAM...NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO KY WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TO
THE SRN APPALACHIANS BY MIDDAY. THIS WILL BRING A SHOT OF SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE NC MTNS NWD INTO SE WV. OVERALL...AMOUNTS WILL BE
LESS THAN 2 INCHES...BUT WILL KEEP THE CURRENT ADVISORY FOR THE NC
MTNS INTO GRAYSON GOING.

THIS WAVE WILL EXIT THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST AREAS CLEARING OUTSIDE
THE WRN SLOPES. THE FINAL PIECE OF ENERGY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.

THIS WAVE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE
UPSLOPE ZONES OF SE WV AS THE MAIN TRACK OF THE VORT IS FURTHER
NORTH. AN INCH OR TWO COULD FALL WITH THIS BUT NOT ADVISORY LEVELS.

IN ADDITION...MODELS SHOWING GOOD PRESSURE RISES WITH SUBSIDENCE
WITH THIS WAVE...THOUGH SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ORIENTATION AND 8H
WINDS NOT FAVORING A HIGH WIND EVENT. STILL COULD SEE A FEW HOURS
THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND ADJACENT AREAS
REACH 40 TO 45 MPH. WILL HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.

WILL BE MUCH COLDER TODAY IN THE MOUNTAINS...THANKS TO THE SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR HEADING IN WITH GUSTY WINDS. LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE 20S
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND INTO SE WV...TO AROUND 30 NEW RIVER
VALLEY...UPPER 30S ROANOKE...AND MID 40S SOUTHSIDE VA/NW NC PIEDMONT.

TONIGHT...WITH WINDS STAYING UP...SHOULD KEEP ENOUGH MIXING TO
PREVENT TEMPS FROM DROPPING REALLY FAR. STILL LOOKING AT TEENS WEST
TO LOWER 20S EAST...ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EST TUESDAY...

1029 MB SFC HIGH WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY.
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY...THUS
ENDING UPSLOPE SNOW FLURRIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL WARM
INTO THE UPPER 20S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S IN THE
SOUTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER WILL SHIFT
EAST OF OUR AREA...WHILE OUR NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM HEADS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WINDS WILL BACK AND INCREASE IN
SPEED. CLOUD COVER WILL START TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE A CHALLENGE
WITH WARM ADVECTION. FOLLOWED SUPERBLEND FOR LOWS WITH READINGS FROM
MID TEENS IN THE NORTHWEST VALLEYS TO MID AND UPPER 20S ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
COULD ALLOW FOR COOLER VALLEY MINIMUMS.

BY THURSDAY MORNING...THE LOW CENTER IS IN THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
TRAILING COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY. MOISTURE
ARRIVES EARLY ENOUGH IN THE FAR WEST TO ALLOW FOR LIGHT POPS FOR
SNOW...BEFORE BETTER POPS TO ARRIVE MIDDAY INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE WEST WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL VARY FROM THE MID 30S IN
THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE..UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW FLURRIES
EXPECTED FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS WITH BLUSTERY
NORTHWEST WINDS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE WEST OF AN INCH OR TWO
MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS. LOW
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 20 DEGREES IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EST TUESDAY...

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO MUCH BELOW THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...ALONG WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.

UPPER LEVELS WILL BE EVOLVING TO MORE OF A DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM.
THE LATEST INDICATIONS POINT TO A COLDER MORE AMPLIFIED EASTERN TROF
DEVELOPING AS PER THE ECMWF...AND SPLIT FLOW OUT WEST WITH A RIDGE
FOR THE PACIFIC NW AND A CUTOFF LOW REGENERATING OVER THE BAJA
PENINSULA.

THE SNOW SHOWERS AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY. 1036
MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FOR SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST SUNDAY. MOISTURE AHEAD AND ALONG THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING VERY STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS TO USHER IN A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR AND COLD
TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.  THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH THIS MESSAGE AND NAEFS ANOMALIES NOW SUPPORT THE GFS
TREND TOWARD THIS SOLUTION SO CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN THIS COLD
OUTBREAK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM EST TUESDAY...

TERMINALS THIS PERIOD WILL STAY VFR...EXCEPT AT BLF/LWB WHERE A
PERIOD OF MVFR WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING...THEN AGAIN TONIGHT WITH
NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE
ROA/BCB/BLF TAF...WITH STRONGER GUSTS EXPECT THIS EVENING AS FINAL
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS. SOME GUSTS TO 35 KTS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION AT AIRPORTS LIKE HLX-GEV.


EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE A QUIET DAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TAF LOCATIONS. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM
ARRIVES ON THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CIGS AND
VSBYS...WITH A CHANCE FOR -SHRA...-SHSN IN THE MOUNTAINS.

ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
AND OFF THE COAST SUNDAY...RETURNING US TO VFR.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ015.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK/MBS
AVIATION...PM/RAB/WP



000
FXUS61 KLWX 271214 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
714 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
WEDNESDAY BEFORE A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH LATER THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...EXPIRED THE WINTER STORM WARNING AND ADVISORY FOR THE WRN
ZONES OF THE CWA - THE APLCNS AND POTOMAC HIGHLAND REGIONS. THE
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU 10 FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA -
FROM THE NRN SHEN VLY TO THE WRN SHORE OF THE CHES BAY.

FROM PREV DISC...
INTENSE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY
FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT AREAS MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS. ENERGY FROM A NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST
WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW BANDS GOING FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AND WILL
PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH TO ONE INCH OF SNOW IN SPOTS. WILL
KEEP ALL WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING.
FALLING SNOW AND SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE SLIPPERY
TRAVEL. THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY WILL PULL INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY WITH ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES COMING TO AN END. A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL HANG ON
OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT BUT SHOULD NOT
AMOUNT TO VERY MUCH DURING TODAY.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR TODAY.
WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
MPH...SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER THE RIDGETOPS. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S WILL
CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE TEENS AND 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

A COLD AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL FALL BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OUT WEST TO THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S EAST. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REDUCE WIND CHILLS INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO SUNSHINE AND LESS WIND. TEMPERATURE
WILL BE SLOW TO RISE AS COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 20S OVER THE NORTH AND WEST
TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING DRY
AND COLD CONDITIONS. WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE WITH THE
MIN TEMPS DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS
ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND...TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S IN
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE PASSING
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. A PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
REGION FRIDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM AND IT WILL BE QUITE COLD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
BUT IT WILL REMAIN COLD.

LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION. DETAILS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN THIS
FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN LOW CIGS AND VSBY
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SNOW BANDS. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LIFT TO VFR
LATER TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION AND
SUBVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY...BUT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE NOT INCREASED MUCH OVERNIGHT AND THEREFORE HAVE CANCELLED
THE GALE WARNING AND REPLACED IT WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
TODAY. WIND GUSTS ON THE WATERS WILL REACH 25 TO 30 KTS AS LOW
PRESSURE PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC. THE GRADIENT WILL BE SLOW TO RELAX AND SCA
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
WATERS FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE WATERS FRIDAY...BUT GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AND A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     DCZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MDZ003>006-011-013-014-016>018-503>508.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ028-031-039-040-050>057-501-502-505-506.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ051>053.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...KRW/BJL







000
FXUS61 KLWX 271214 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
714 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
WEDNESDAY BEFORE A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH LATER THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...EXPIRED THE WINTER STORM WARNING AND ADVISORY FOR THE WRN
ZONES OF THE CWA - THE APLCNS AND POTOMAC HIGHLAND REGIONS. THE
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU 10 FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA -
FROM THE NRN SHEN VLY TO THE WRN SHORE OF THE CHES BAY.

FROM PREV DISC...
INTENSE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY
FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT AREAS MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS. ENERGY FROM A NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST
WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW BANDS GOING FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AND WILL
PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH TO ONE INCH OF SNOW IN SPOTS. WILL
KEEP ALL WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING.
FALLING SNOW AND SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE SLIPPERY
TRAVEL. THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY WILL PULL INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY WITH ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES COMING TO AN END. A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL HANG ON
OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT BUT SHOULD NOT
AMOUNT TO VERY MUCH DURING TODAY.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR TODAY.
WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
MPH...SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER THE RIDGETOPS. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S WILL
CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE TEENS AND 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

A COLD AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL FALL BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OUT WEST TO THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S EAST. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REDUCE WIND CHILLS INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO SUNSHINE AND LESS WIND. TEMPERATURE
WILL BE SLOW TO RISE AS COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 20S OVER THE NORTH AND WEST
TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING DRY
AND COLD CONDITIONS. WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE WITH THE
MIN TEMPS DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS
ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND...TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S IN
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE PASSING
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. A PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
REGION FRIDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM AND IT WILL BE QUITE COLD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
BUT IT WILL REMAIN COLD.

LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION. DETAILS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN THIS
FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN LOW CIGS AND VSBY
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SNOW BANDS. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LIFT TO VFR
LATER TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION AND
SUBVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY...BUT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE NOT INCREASED MUCH OVERNIGHT AND THEREFORE HAVE CANCELLED
THE GALE WARNING AND REPLACED IT WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
TODAY. WIND GUSTS ON THE WATERS WILL REACH 25 TO 30 KTS AS LOW
PRESSURE PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC. THE GRADIENT WILL BE SLOW TO RELAX AND SCA
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
WATERS FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE WATERS FRIDAY...BUT GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AND A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     DCZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MDZ003>006-011-013-014-016>018-503>508.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ028-031-039-040-050>057-501-502-505-506.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ051>053.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...KRW/BJL








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271201
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
701 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS
NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUICK UPDATE TO CLEAR MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE COUNTIES FROM WITNER
WX ADVISORY BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. GIVEN LATEST REPORTS AND
TRAFFIC CAMS IN METRO RIC/ORF AREAS, WILL CONTINUE THEM ELSWEHERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

EARLY MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING NARROW BAND OF PCPN DROPPING
SOUTH FROM CENTRAL PA SOUTH INTO EASTERN/CENTRAL VA. VSBY AVGG
2-4SM IN SN, AND WE`VE RECEIVED QUITE A FEW REPORTS ~1 AND A FEW
IN THE 1 1/2 TO 2" ALONG THE NORTHERN NECK INTO THE PENINSULA.
TRAFFIC CAMS SHOWING AT LEAST A COATING INTO THE TIDEWATER AREA
(CONFIRMED BY LOCAL COOPERATIVE OBSERVER). WE WILL BE MAINTAINING
WINTER HEADLINES FOR A LITTLE LONGER, WITH THIS BAND OF SNSH WELL
HANDLED BY THE HRRR EARLY THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY LOCALES
IN NORFOLK OR RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE ANY MORE THAN AN
INCH...BUT WITH THE HEADLINE ALREADY IN PLACE AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW TO CAUSE SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...DON`T
FEEL DROPPING THE HEADLINES IS PRUDENT ATTM. WL REVISIT HEADLINES
AT 7AM UPDATE. DO EXPECT DAY CREW WILL BE ABLE TO CLEAR HEADLINES
SHORTLY AFTER 14Z IF NOT SOONER.

HAVE BUMPED POPS UP IN TO CATEGORICAL RANGE FOR COASTAL NE NC, AND
GRADUALLY TAPERED THEM OFF ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE BY MID-LATE
MORNING. DROPPED POPS INTO NO HIGHER THAN 20% BUT HAVE KEPT
FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST FOR FAR WESTERN ZONES, AS ACCUMS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

INTENSIFYING SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE INTO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL POPS DROP OFF BY EARLY AFTN, WITH STRONG CAA
BRINGING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS (25-30MPH GUSTS ALONG THE
COAST/ERN SHORE), AND HOLDING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S (~40
IN THE PIEDMONT) UNDER A CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW PULLS TOWARDS ATLANTIC
CANADA AS COLD SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. CLEARING
SKY AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS WILL ALLOW EARLY MORNING
LOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE THE 20S FOR MOST, W/ WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL WITH SHALLOW MIXING AND A NNE WIND. HIGHS
ONLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR
30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST.

RAIN CHCS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THU/THU NGT AS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS TO
THE GREAT LAKES, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND BY LATE THU NGT. DAY BEGINS
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS. BEST FORCING
REMAINS OFF TO THE NORTH, SO HAVE CAPPED POP AT NO HIGHER THAN 30%
FOR NOW. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH THU NGT AS SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA. FOR HIGHS, SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW
FOR A MODEST WARMUP WITH MAXIMA IN THE U30S ERN SHORE/NRN
NECK...LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND AND U40S FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NW AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK
MOVING FRONTAL WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT
TO SEA MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT
THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES AS OF 12Z...WITH EITHER LOW
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. SOME VARIABILITY IS ANTICIPATED
IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 15Z AND HAVE GONE WITH TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS
FOR MOST TAF SITES THROUGH 14-15Z. GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO AROUND 25
KT AT ORF/KECG...AROUND 20 KT ELSEWHERE.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 15Z...WITH CIGS LIFTING
TO 1500-2500 FT THEREAFTER. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE NW AND REMAIN
GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. A
WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT/EARLY
FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...DOWNGRADED THE GALE WARNING TO SCA FLAGS FOR NRN COASTAL
WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO PARRAMORE ISLAND. WIND GUSTS HAVE
STRUGGLED TO REACH 34KT OR GREATER AT SFC BUOYS. SCA FOR NRN WATERS
WILL NOW BE IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AFTER WHICH
WINDS AND PRIMARILY SEAS WILL DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STRONG COASTAL LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES
EAST OF ATLANTIC CITY NJ AS OF 4 AM. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS VERY TIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE ADDED
CAA AND DIURNAL EFFECTS ARE CAUSING N-NW WINDS TO EXPERIENCE A BRIEF
SURGE IN SPEEDS. SEAS HAVE QUICKLY RISEN TO 8-12FT IN SRN COASTAL
WATERS AS WELL. THE SURGE IN WINDS/SEAS IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF...
LASTING THROUGH SUNRISE...AFTER WHICH WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY
AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS AFTN TO 5-7FT SRN
WATERS/6-10FT NRN WATERS...AS THE LOW TRACKS NE AND AWAY FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. FOR TONIGHT...THE STRONG LOW TRACKS TWD THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...
KEEPING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. PRESSURE RISES
AROUND 3MB THIS EVENING (OCCURRING BTWN 21Z TODAY AND 06Z TONIGHT)...
INDICATE THAT ANOTHER NWLY SURGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 30KT IS POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING FOR THE BAY/OCEAN AS CAA AND WRAPAROUND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TRAVERSE THE WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON WED.
CONTINUED CAA WILL KEEP NW WINDS ELEVATED WITHIN SCA THRESHOLDS
OVER ALL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL SHOW A MARKED
DECREASE TO 4-5FT BY WED AFTN. ONLY CHANGE MADE TO SCA FLAGS WAS
TO EXTEND CHES BAY AND SRN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 10 PM WED
EVENING BEFORE WINDS/SEAS FALL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. SEAS CONTINUE
TO SUBSIDE THRU WED EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE
WATERS. A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION ON THU WILL SHUNT
THE HIGH OVER THE SE COAST. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CLIPPER IS THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY POTENTIALLY SOLID SCA CONDITIONS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OCEAN CITY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...FELL
SHORT OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS AS WINDS SHIFTED FASTER THAN
EXPECTED FROM ONSHORE E/NE MON AFTN TO OFFSHORE N/NW. DEPARTURES
HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. MDL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPCOMING TIDE THIS AFTN REACHING ABOVE 4 FT
MLLW...BUT THIS APPEARS WELL OVERDONE GIVEN THE N/NW WIND
DIRECTION AND CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. NAM- BASED CBOFS GUIDANCE IS
RUNNING ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER THAN REALITY...BUT IN TERMS OF TREND
SHOWS THE TIDE THIS AFTN TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE HIGH TIDE
EARLIER THIS MORNING THAT ONLY PEAKED AT 3.7 FT MLLW. HAVE ISSUED
A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT RATHER THAN AN ADVISORY AT THIS POINT
GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE OFFSHORE WIND FLOW.

ACRS THE LOWER BAY DEPARTURES ARE ALSO RUNNING AS HIGH AS 1.5 TO 2
FEET...BUT THIS STILL LEADS TO TIDES FALLING AT LEAST 0.5 FT SHY
OF MINOR FLOODING THIS AFTN. DEPARTURES WILL FALL TONIGHT INTO WED
WITH NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ081-
     089>091-093>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...BMD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271201
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
701 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS
NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUICK UPDATE TO CLEAR MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE COUNTIES FROM WITNER
WX ADVISORY BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. GIVEN LATEST REPORTS AND
TRAFFIC CAMS IN METRO RIC/ORF AREAS, WILL CONTINUE THEM ELSWEHERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

EARLY MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING NARROW BAND OF PCPN DROPPING
SOUTH FROM CENTRAL PA SOUTH INTO EASTERN/CENTRAL VA. VSBY AVGG
2-4SM IN SN, AND WE`VE RECEIVED QUITE A FEW REPORTS ~1 AND A FEW
IN THE 1 1/2 TO 2" ALONG THE NORTHERN NECK INTO THE PENINSULA.
TRAFFIC CAMS SHOWING AT LEAST A COATING INTO THE TIDEWATER AREA
(CONFIRMED BY LOCAL COOPERATIVE OBSERVER). WE WILL BE MAINTAINING
WINTER HEADLINES FOR A LITTLE LONGER, WITH THIS BAND OF SNSH WELL
HANDLED BY THE HRRR EARLY THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY LOCALES
IN NORFOLK OR RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE ANY MORE THAN AN
INCH...BUT WITH THE HEADLINE ALREADY IN PLACE AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW TO CAUSE SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...DON`T
FEEL DROPPING THE HEADLINES IS PRUDENT ATTM. WL REVISIT HEADLINES
AT 7AM UPDATE. DO EXPECT DAY CREW WILL BE ABLE TO CLEAR HEADLINES
SHORTLY AFTER 14Z IF NOT SOONER.

HAVE BUMPED POPS UP IN TO CATEGORICAL RANGE FOR COASTAL NE NC, AND
GRADUALLY TAPERED THEM OFF ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE BY MID-LATE
MORNING. DROPPED POPS INTO NO HIGHER THAN 20% BUT HAVE KEPT
FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST FOR FAR WESTERN ZONES, AS ACCUMS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

INTENSIFYING SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE INTO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL POPS DROP OFF BY EARLY AFTN, WITH STRONG CAA
BRINGING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS (25-30MPH GUSTS ALONG THE
COAST/ERN SHORE), AND HOLDING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S (~40
IN THE PIEDMONT) UNDER A CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW PULLS TOWARDS ATLANTIC
CANADA AS COLD SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. CLEARING
SKY AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS WILL ALLOW EARLY MORNING
LOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE THE 20S FOR MOST, W/ WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL WITH SHALLOW MIXING AND A NNE WIND. HIGHS
ONLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR
30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST.

RAIN CHCS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THU/THU NGT AS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS TO
THE GREAT LAKES, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND BY LATE THU NGT. DAY BEGINS
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS. BEST FORCING
REMAINS OFF TO THE NORTH, SO HAVE CAPPED POP AT NO HIGHER THAN 30%
FOR NOW. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH THU NGT AS SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA. FOR HIGHS, SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW
FOR A MODEST WARMUP WITH MAXIMA IN THE U30S ERN SHORE/NRN
NECK...LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND AND U40S FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NW AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK
MOVING FRONTAL WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT
TO SEA MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT
THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES AS OF 12Z...WITH EITHER LOW
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. SOME VARIABILITY IS ANTICIPATED
IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 15Z AND HAVE GONE WITH TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS
FOR MOST TAF SITES THROUGH 14-15Z. GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO AROUND 25
KT AT ORF/KECG...AROUND 20 KT ELSEWHERE.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 15Z...WITH CIGS LIFTING
TO 1500-2500 FT THEREAFTER. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE NW AND REMAIN
GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. A
WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT/EARLY
FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...DOWNGRADED THE GALE WARNING TO SCA FLAGS FOR NRN COASTAL
WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO PARRAMORE ISLAND. WIND GUSTS HAVE
STRUGGLED TO REACH 34KT OR GREATER AT SFC BUOYS. SCA FOR NRN WATERS
WILL NOW BE IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AFTER WHICH
WINDS AND PRIMARILY SEAS WILL DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STRONG COASTAL LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES
EAST OF ATLANTIC CITY NJ AS OF 4 AM. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS VERY TIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE ADDED
CAA AND DIURNAL EFFECTS ARE CAUSING N-NW WINDS TO EXPERIENCE A BRIEF
SURGE IN SPEEDS. SEAS HAVE QUICKLY RISEN TO 8-12FT IN SRN COASTAL
WATERS AS WELL. THE SURGE IN WINDS/SEAS IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF...
LASTING THROUGH SUNRISE...AFTER WHICH WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY
AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS AFTN TO 5-7FT SRN
WATERS/6-10FT NRN WATERS...AS THE LOW TRACKS NE AND AWAY FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. FOR TONIGHT...THE STRONG LOW TRACKS TWD THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...
KEEPING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. PRESSURE RISES
AROUND 3MB THIS EVENING (OCCURRING BTWN 21Z TODAY AND 06Z TONIGHT)...
INDICATE THAT ANOTHER NWLY SURGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 30KT IS POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING FOR THE BAY/OCEAN AS CAA AND WRAPAROUND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TRAVERSE THE WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON WED.
CONTINUED CAA WILL KEEP NW WINDS ELEVATED WITHIN SCA THRESHOLDS
OVER ALL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL SHOW A MARKED
DECREASE TO 4-5FT BY WED AFTN. ONLY CHANGE MADE TO SCA FLAGS WAS
TO EXTEND CHES BAY AND SRN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 10 PM WED
EVENING BEFORE WINDS/SEAS FALL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. SEAS CONTINUE
TO SUBSIDE THRU WED EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE
WATERS. A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION ON THU WILL SHUNT
THE HIGH OVER THE SE COAST. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CLIPPER IS THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY POTENTIALLY SOLID SCA CONDITIONS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OCEAN CITY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...FELL
SHORT OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS AS WINDS SHIFTED FASTER THAN
EXPECTED FROM ONSHORE E/NE MON AFTN TO OFFSHORE N/NW. DEPARTURES
HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. MDL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPCOMING TIDE THIS AFTN REACHING ABOVE 4 FT
MLLW...BUT THIS APPEARS WELL OVERDONE GIVEN THE N/NW WIND
DIRECTION AND CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. NAM- BASED CBOFS GUIDANCE IS
RUNNING ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER THAN REALITY...BUT IN TERMS OF TREND
SHOWS THE TIDE THIS AFTN TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE HIGH TIDE
EARLIER THIS MORNING THAT ONLY PEAKED AT 3.7 FT MLLW. HAVE ISSUED
A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT RATHER THAN AN ADVISORY AT THIS POINT
GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE OFFSHORE WIND FLOW.

ACRS THE LOWER BAY DEPARTURES ARE ALSO RUNNING AS HIGH AS 1.5 TO 2
FEET...BUT THIS STILL LEADS TO TIDES FALLING AT LEAST 0.5 FT SHY
OF MINOR FLOODING THIS AFTN. DEPARTURES WILL FALL TONIGHT INTO WED
WITH NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ081-
     089>091-093>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...BMD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271157
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
657 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS
NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING NARROW BAND OF PCPN DROPPING
SOUTH FROM CENTRAL PA SOUTH INTO EASTERN/CENTRAL VA. VSBY AVGG
2-4SM IN SN, AND WE`VE RECEIVED SCATTERED REPORTS OF ~1" ALONG THE
NORTHERN NECK INTO THE PENINSULA, WITH TRAFFIC CAMS SHOWING AT
LEAST A COATING INTO THE TIDEWATER AREA (CONFIRMED BY LOCAL
COOPERATIVE OBSERVER). WE WILL BE MAINTAINING WINTER HEADLINES FOR
A LITTLE LONGER, WITH THIS BAND OF SNSH WELL HANDLED BY THE HRRR
EARLY THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY LOCALES IN NORFOLK OR
RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE ANY MORE THAN AN INCH...BUT WITH
THE HEADLINE ALREADY IN PLACE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO CAUSE
SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...DON`T FEEL DROPPING THE
HEADLINES IS PRUDENT ATTM. WL REVISIT HEADLINES AT 7AM UPDATE. DO
EXPECT DAY CREW WILL BE ABLE TO CLEAR HEADLINES SHORTLY AFTER 14Z
IF NOT SOONER.

HAVE BUMPED POPS UP IN TO CATEGORICAL RANGE FOR COASTAL NE NC, AND
GRADUALLY TAPERED THEM OFF ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE BY MID-LATE
MORNING. DROPPED POPS INTO NO HIGHER THAN 20% BUT HAVE KEPT
FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST FOR FAR WESTERN ZONES, AS ACCUMS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

INTENSIFYING SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE INTO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL POPS DROP OFF BY EARLY AFTN, WITH STRONG CAA
BRINGING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS (25-30MPH GUSTS ALONG THE
COAST/ERN SHORE), AND HOLDING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S (~40
IN THE PIEDMONT) UNDER A CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW PULLS TOWARDS ATLANTIC
CANADA AS COLD SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. CLEARING
SKY AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS WILL ALLOW EARLY MORNING
LOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE THE 20S FOR MOST, W/ WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL WITH SHALLOW MIXING AND A NNE WIND. HIGHS
ONLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR
30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST.

RAIN CHCS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THU/THU NGT AS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS TO
THE GREAT LAKES, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND BY LATE THU NGT. DAY BEGINS
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS. BEST FORCING
REMAINS OFF TO THE NORTH, SO HAVE CAPPED POP AT NO HIGHER THAN 30%
FOR NOW. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH THU NGT AS SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA. FOR HIGHS, SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW
FOR A MODEST WARMUP WITH MAXIMA IN THE U30S ERN SHORE/NRN
NECK...LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND AND U40S FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NW AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK
MOVING FRONTAL WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT
TO SEA MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT
THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES AS OF 12Z...WITH EITHER LOW
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. SOME VARIABILITY IS ANTICIPATED
IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 15Z AND HAVE GONE WITH TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS
FOR MOST TAF SITES THROUGH 14-15Z. GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO AROUND 25
KT AT ORF/KECG...AROUND 20 KT ELSEWHERE.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 15Z...WITH CIGS LIFTING
TO 1500-2500 FT THEREAFTER. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE NW AND REMAIN
GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. A
WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT/EARLY
FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...DOWNGRADED THE GALE WARNING TO SCA FLAGS FOR NRN COASTAL
WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO PARRAMORE ISLAND. WIND GUSTS HAVE
STRUGGLED TO REACH 34KT OR GREATER AT SFC BUOYS. SCA FOR NRN WATERS
WILL NOW BE IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AFTER WHICH
WINDS AND PRIMARILY SEAS WILL DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STRONG COASTAL LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES
EAST OF ATLANTIC CITY NJ AS OF 4 AM. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS VERY TIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE ADDED
CAA AND DIURNAL EFFECTS ARE CAUSING N-NW WINDS TO EXPERIENCE A BRIEF
SURGE IN SPEEDS. SEAS HAVE QUICKLY RISEN TO 8-12FT IN SRN COASTAL
WATERS AS WELL. THE SURGE IN WINDS/SEAS IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF...
LASTING THROUGH SUNRISE...AFTER WHICH WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY
AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS AFTN TO 5-7FT SRN
WATERS/6-10FT NRN WATERS...AS THE LOW TRACKS NE AND AWAY FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. FOR TONIGHT...THE STRONG LOW TRACKS TWD THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...
KEEPING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. PRESSURE RISES
AROUND 3MB THIS EVENING (OCCURRING BTWN 21Z TODAY AND 06Z TONIGHT)...
INDICATE THAT ANOTHER NWLY SURGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 30KT IS POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING FOR THE BAY/OCEAN AS CAA AND WRAPAROUND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TRAVERSE THE WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON WED.
CONTINUED CAA WILL KEEP NW WINDS ELEVATED WITHIN SCA THRESHOLDS
OVER ALL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL SHOW A MARKED
DECREASE TO 4-5FT BY WED AFTN. ONLY CHANGE MADE TO SCA FLAGS WAS
TO EXTEND CHES BAY AND SRN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 10 PM WED
EVENING BEFORE WINDS/SEAS FALL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. SEAS CONTINUE
TO SUBSIDE THRU WED EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE
WATERS. A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION ON THU WILL SHUNT
THE HIGH OVER THE SE COAST. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CLIPPER IS THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY POTENTIALLY SOLID SCA CONDITIONS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OCEAN CITY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...FELL
SHORT OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS AS WINDS SHIFTED FASTER THAN
EXPECTED FROM ONSHORE E/NE MON AFTN TO OFFSHORE N/NW. DEPARTURES
HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. MDL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPCOMING TIDE THIS AFTN REACHING ABOVE 4 FT
MLLW...BUT THIS APPEARS WELL OVERDONE GIVEN THE N/NW WIND
DIRECTION AND CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. NAM- BASED CBOFS GUIDANCE IS
RUNNING ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER THAN REALITY...BUT IN TERMS OF TREND
SHOWS THE TIDE THIS AFTN TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE HIGH TIDE
EARLIER THIS MORNING THAT ONLY PEAKED AT 3.7 FT MLLW. HAVE ISSUED
A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT RATHER THAN AN ADVISORY AT THIS POINT
GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE OFFSHORE WIND FLOW.

ACRS THE LOWER BAY DEPARTURES ARE ALSO RUNNING AS HIGH AS 1.5 TO 2
FEET...BUT THIS STILL LEADS TO TIDES FALLING AT LEAST 0.5 FT SHY
OF MINOR FLOODING THIS AFTN. DEPARTURES WILL FALL TONIGHT INTO WED
WITH NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ081-
     089>091-093>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...BMD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271157
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
657 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS
NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING NARROW BAND OF PCPN DROPPING
SOUTH FROM CENTRAL PA SOUTH INTO EASTERN/CENTRAL VA. VSBY AVGG
2-4SM IN SN, AND WE`VE RECEIVED SCATTERED REPORTS OF ~1" ALONG THE
NORTHERN NECK INTO THE PENINSULA, WITH TRAFFIC CAMS SHOWING AT
LEAST A COATING INTO THE TIDEWATER AREA (CONFIRMED BY LOCAL
COOPERATIVE OBSERVER). WE WILL BE MAINTAINING WINTER HEADLINES FOR
A LITTLE LONGER, WITH THIS BAND OF SNSH WELL HANDLED BY THE HRRR
EARLY THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY LOCALES IN NORFOLK OR
RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE ANY MORE THAN AN INCH...BUT WITH
THE HEADLINE ALREADY IN PLACE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO CAUSE
SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...DON`T FEEL DROPPING THE
HEADLINES IS PRUDENT ATTM. WL REVISIT HEADLINES AT 7AM UPDATE. DO
EXPECT DAY CREW WILL BE ABLE TO CLEAR HEADLINES SHORTLY AFTER 14Z
IF NOT SOONER.

HAVE BUMPED POPS UP IN TO CATEGORICAL RANGE FOR COASTAL NE NC, AND
GRADUALLY TAPERED THEM OFF ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE BY MID-LATE
MORNING. DROPPED POPS INTO NO HIGHER THAN 20% BUT HAVE KEPT
FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST FOR FAR WESTERN ZONES, AS ACCUMS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

INTENSIFYING SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE INTO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL POPS DROP OFF BY EARLY AFTN, WITH STRONG CAA
BRINGING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS (25-30MPH GUSTS ALONG THE
COAST/ERN SHORE), AND HOLDING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S (~40
IN THE PIEDMONT) UNDER A CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW PULLS TOWARDS ATLANTIC
CANADA AS COLD SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. CLEARING
SKY AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS WILL ALLOW EARLY MORNING
LOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE THE 20S FOR MOST, W/ WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL WITH SHALLOW MIXING AND A NNE WIND. HIGHS
ONLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR
30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST.

RAIN CHCS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THU/THU NGT AS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS TO
THE GREAT LAKES, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND BY LATE THU NGT. DAY BEGINS
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS. BEST FORCING
REMAINS OFF TO THE NORTH, SO HAVE CAPPED POP AT NO HIGHER THAN 30%
FOR NOW. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH THU NGT AS SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA. FOR HIGHS, SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW
FOR A MODEST WARMUP WITH MAXIMA IN THE U30S ERN SHORE/NRN
NECK...LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND AND U40S FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NW AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK
MOVING FRONTAL WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT
TO SEA MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT
THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES AS OF 12Z...WITH EITHER LOW
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. SOME VARIABILITY IS ANTICIPATED
IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 15Z AND HAVE GONE WITH TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS
FOR MOST TAF SITES THROUGH 14-15Z. GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO AROUND 25
KT AT ORF/KECG...AROUND 20 KT ELSEWHERE.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 15Z...WITH CIGS LIFTING
TO 1500-2500 FT THEREAFTER. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE NW AND REMAIN
GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. A
WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT/EARLY
FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...DOWNGRADED THE GALE WARNING TO SCA FLAGS FOR NRN COASTAL
WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO PARRAMORE ISLAND. WIND GUSTS HAVE
STRUGGLED TO REACH 34KT OR GREATER AT SFC BUOYS. SCA FOR NRN WATERS
WILL NOW BE IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AFTER WHICH
WINDS AND PRIMARILY SEAS WILL DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STRONG COASTAL LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES
EAST OF ATLANTIC CITY NJ AS OF 4 AM. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS VERY TIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE ADDED
CAA AND DIURNAL EFFECTS ARE CAUSING N-NW WINDS TO EXPERIENCE A BRIEF
SURGE IN SPEEDS. SEAS HAVE QUICKLY RISEN TO 8-12FT IN SRN COASTAL
WATERS AS WELL. THE SURGE IN WINDS/SEAS IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF...
LASTING THROUGH SUNRISE...AFTER WHICH WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY
AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS AFTN TO 5-7FT SRN
WATERS/6-10FT NRN WATERS...AS THE LOW TRACKS NE AND AWAY FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. FOR TONIGHT...THE STRONG LOW TRACKS TWD THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...
KEEPING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. PRESSURE RISES
AROUND 3MB THIS EVENING (OCCURRING BTWN 21Z TODAY AND 06Z TONIGHT)...
INDICATE THAT ANOTHER NWLY SURGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 30KT IS POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING FOR THE BAY/OCEAN AS CAA AND WRAPAROUND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TRAVERSE THE WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON WED.
CONTINUED CAA WILL KEEP NW WINDS ELEVATED WITHIN SCA THRESHOLDS
OVER ALL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL SHOW A MARKED
DECREASE TO 4-5FT BY WED AFTN. ONLY CHANGE MADE TO SCA FLAGS WAS
TO EXTEND CHES BAY AND SRN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 10 PM WED
EVENING BEFORE WINDS/SEAS FALL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. SEAS CONTINUE
TO SUBSIDE THRU WED EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE
WATERS. A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION ON THU WILL SHUNT
THE HIGH OVER THE SE COAST. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CLIPPER IS THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY POTENTIALLY SOLID SCA CONDITIONS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OCEAN CITY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...FELL
SHORT OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS AS WINDS SHIFTED FASTER THAN
EXPECTED FROM ONSHORE E/NE MON AFTN TO OFFSHORE N/NW. DEPARTURES
HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. MDL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPCOMING TIDE THIS AFTN REACHING ABOVE 4 FT
MLLW...BUT THIS APPEARS WELL OVERDONE GIVEN THE N/NW WIND
DIRECTION AND CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. NAM- BASED CBOFS GUIDANCE IS
RUNNING ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER THAN REALITY...BUT IN TERMS OF TREND
SHOWS THE TIDE THIS AFTN TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE HIGH TIDE
EARLIER THIS MORNING THAT ONLY PEAKED AT 3.7 FT MLLW. HAVE ISSUED
A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT RATHER THAN AN ADVISORY AT THIS POINT
GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE OFFSHORE WIND FLOW.

ACRS THE LOWER BAY DEPARTURES ARE ALSO RUNNING AS HIGH AS 1.5 TO 2
FEET...BUT THIS STILL LEADS TO TIDES FALLING AT LEAST 0.5 FT SHY
OF MINOR FLOODING THIS AFTN. DEPARTURES WILL FALL TONIGHT INTO WED
WITH NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ081-
     089>091-093>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...BMD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271137
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
637 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS
NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING NARROW BAND OF PCPN DROPPING
SOUTH FROM CENTRAL PA SOUTH INTO EASTERN/CENTRAL VA. VSBY AVGG
2-4SM IN SN, AND WE`VE RECEIVED SCATTERED REPORTS OF ~1" ALONG THE
NORTHERN NECK INTO THE PENINSULA, WITH TRAFFIC CAMS SHOWING AT
LEAST A COATING INTO THE TIDEWATER AREA (CONFIRMED BY LOCAL
COOPERATIVE OBSERVER). WE WILL BE MAINTAINING WINTER HEADLINES FOR
A LITTLE LONGER, WITH THIS BAND OF SNSH WELL HANDLED BY THE HRRR
EARLY THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY LOCALES IN NORFOLK OR
RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE ANY MORE THAN AN INCH...BUT WITH
THE HEADLINE ALREADY IN PLACE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO CAUSE
SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...DON`T FEEL DROPPING THE
HEADLINES IS PRUDENT ATTM. WL REVISIT HEADLINES AT 7AM UPDATE. DO
EXPECT DAY CREW WILL BE ABLE TO CLEAR HEADLINES SHORTLY AFTER 14Z
IF NOT SOONER.

HAVE BUMPED POPS UP IN TO CATEGORICAL RANGE FOR COASTAL NE NC, AND
GRADUALLY TAPERED THEM OFF ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE BY MID-LATE
MORNING. DROPPED POPS INTO NO HIGHER THAN 20% BUT HAVE KEPT
FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST FOR FAR WESTERN ZONES, AS ACCUMS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

INTENSIFYING SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE INTO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL POPS DROP OFF BY EARLY AFTN, WITH STRONG CAA
BRINGING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS (25-30MPH GUSTS ALONG THE
COAST/ERN SHORE), AND HOLDING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S (~40
IN THE PIEDMONT) UNDER A CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW PULLS TOWARDS ATLANTIC
CANADA AS COLD SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. CLEARING
SKY AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS WILL ALLOW EARLY MORNING
LOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE THE 20S FOR MOST, W/ WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL WITH SHALLOW MIXING AND A NNE WIND. HIGHS
ONLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR
30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST.

RAIN CHCS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THU/THU NGT AS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS TO
THE GREAT LAKES, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND BY LATE THU NGT. DAY BEGINS
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS. BEST FORCING
REMAINS OFF TO THE NORTH, SO HAVE CAPPED POP AT NO HIGHER THAN 30%
FOR NOW. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH THU NGT AS SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA. FOR HIGHS, SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW
FOR A MODEST WARMUP WITH MAXIMA IN THE U30S ERN SHORE/NRN
NECK...LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND AND U40S FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NW AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK
MOVING FRONTAL WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT
TO SEA MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT
THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES AS OF 06Z (RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW AT KECG)...WITH EITHER LOW MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT.
SOME VARIABILITY IS ANTICIPATED IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 12Z...WILL
AVG IFR WITH CIGS JUST BELOW 1000 FT AND VSBYS OF 2-3SM. COULD
BRIEFLY SEE LIFR CONDS IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS (PROBABLY MOST
LIKELY AT KORF). GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO AROUND 25 KT AT
ORF/KECG...AROUND 20 KT ELSEWHERE.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 12Z...ALTHOUGH WILL HANG
ONTO IFR CIGS AT MOST SITES THROUGH AROUND 15Z...WITH CIGS LIFTING
TO 1500-2500 FT THEREAFTER. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE NW AND REMAIN
GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. A
WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT/EARLY
FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...DOWNGRADED THE GALE WARNING TO SCA FLAGS FOR NRN COASTAL
WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO PARRAMORE ISLAND. WIND GUSTS HAVE
STRUGGLED TO REACH 34KT OR GREATER AT SFC BUOYS. SCA FOR NRN WATERS
WILL NOW BE IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AFTER WHICH
WINDS AND PRIMARILY SEAS WILL DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STRONG COASTAL LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES
EAST OF ATLANTIC CITY NJ AS OF 4 AM. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS VERY TIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE ADDED
CAA AND DIURNAL EFFECTS ARE CAUSING N-NW WINDS TO EXPERIENCE A BRIEF
SURGE IN SPEEDS. SEAS HAVE QUICKLY RISEN TO 8-12FT IN SRN COASTAL
WATERS AS WELL. THE SURGE IN WINDS/SEAS IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF...
LASTING THROUGH SUNRISE...AFTER WHICH WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY
AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS AFTN TO 5-7FT SRN
WATERS/6-10FT NRN WATERS...AS THE LOW TRACKS NE AND AWAY FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. FOR TONIGHT...THE STRONG LOW TRACKS TWD THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...
KEEPING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. PRESSURE RISES
AROUND 3MB THIS EVENING (OCCURRING BTWN 21Z TODAY AND 06Z TONIGHT)...
INDICATE THAT ANOTHER NWLY SURGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 30KT IS POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING FOR THE BAY/OCEAN AS CAA AND WRAPAROUND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TRAVERSE THE WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON WED.
CONTINUED CAA WILL KEEP NW WINDS ELEVATED WITHIN SCA THRESHOLDS
OVER ALL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL SHOW A MARKED
DECREASE TO 4-5FT BY WED AFTN. ONLY CHANGE MADE TO SCA FLAGS WAS
TO EXTEND CHES BAY AND SRN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 10 PM WED
EVENING BEFORE WINDS/SEAS FALL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. SEAS CONTINUE
TO SUBSIDE THRU WED EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE
WATERS. A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION ON THU WILL SHUNT
THE HIGH OVER THE SE COAST. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CLIPPER IS THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY POTENTIALLY SOLID SCA CONDITIONS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OCEAN CITY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...FELL
SHORT OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS AS WINDS SHIFTED FASTER THAN
EXPECTED FROM ONSHORE E/NE MON AFTN TO OFFSHORE N/NW. DEPARTURES
HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. MDL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPCOMING TIDE THIS AFTN REACHING ABOVE 4 FT
MLLW...BUT THIS APPEARS WELL OVERDONE GIVEN THE N/NW WIND
DIRECTION AND CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. NAM- BASED CBOFS GUIDANCE IS
RUNNING ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER THAN REALITY...BUT IN TERMS OF TREND
SHOWS THE TIDE THIS AFTN TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE HIGH TIDE
EARLIER THIS MORNING THAT ONLY PEAKED AT 3.7 FT MLLW. WILL
MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH MID MORNING...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE
OFFSHORE WIND FLOW.

ACRS THE LOWER BAY DEPARTURES ARE ALSO RUNNING AS HIGH AS 1.5 TO 2
FEET...BUT THIS STILL LEADS TO TIDES FALLING AT LEAST 0.5 FT SHY
OF MINOR FLOODING THIS AFTN. DEPARTURES WILL FALL TONIGHT INTO WED
WITH NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ081-
     089>091-093>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...BMD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271137
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
637 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS
NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING NARROW BAND OF PCPN DROPPING
SOUTH FROM CENTRAL PA SOUTH INTO EASTERN/CENTRAL VA. VSBY AVGG
2-4SM IN SN, AND WE`VE RECEIVED SCATTERED REPORTS OF ~1" ALONG THE
NORTHERN NECK INTO THE PENINSULA, WITH TRAFFIC CAMS SHOWING AT
LEAST A COATING INTO THE TIDEWATER AREA (CONFIRMED BY LOCAL
COOPERATIVE OBSERVER). WE WILL BE MAINTAINING WINTER HEADLINES FOR
A LITTLE LONGER, WITH THIS BAND OF SNSH WELL HANDLED BY THE HRRR
EARLY THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY LOCALES IN NORFOLK OR
RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE ANY MORE THAN AN INCH...BUT WITH
THE HEADLINE ALREADY IN PLACE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO CAUSE
SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...DON`T FEEL DROPPING THE
HEADLINES IS PRUDENT ATTM. WL REVISIT HEADLINES AT 7AM UPDATE. DO
EXPECT DAY CREW WILL BE ABLE TO CLEAR HEADLINES SHORTLY AFTER 14Z
IF NOT SOONER.

HAVE BUMPED POPS UP IN TO CATEGORICAL RANGE FOR COASTAL NE NC, AND
GRADUALLY TAPERED THEM OFF ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE BY MID-LATE
MORNING. DROPPED POPS INTO NO HIGHER THAN 20% BUT HAVE KEPT
FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST FOR FAR WESTERN ZONES, AS ACCUMS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

INTENSIFYING SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE INTO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL POPS DROP OFF BY EARLY AFTN, WITH STRONG CAA
BRINGING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS (25-30MPH GUSTS ALONG THE
COAST/ERN SHORE), AND HOLDING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S (~40
IN THE PIEDMONT) UNDER A CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW PULLS TOWARDS ATLANTIC
CANADA AS COLD SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. CLEARING
SKY AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS WILL ALLOW EARLY MORNING
LOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE THE 20S FOR MOST, W/ WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL WITH SHALLOW MIXING AND A NNE WIND. HIGHS
ONLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR
30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST.

RAIN CHCS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THU/THU NGT AS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS TO
THE GREAT LAKES, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND BY LATE THU NGT. DAY BEGINS
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS. BEST FORCING
REMAINS OFF TO THE NORTH, SO HAVE CAPPED POP AT NO HIGHER THAN 30%
FOR NOW. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH THU NGT AS SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA. FOR HIGHS, SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW
FOR A MODEST WARMUP WITH MAXIMA IN THE U30S ERN SHORE/NRN
NECK...LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND AND U40S FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NW AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK
MOVING FRONTAL WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT
TO SEA MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT
THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES AS OF 06Z (RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW AT KECG)...WITH EITHER LOW MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT.
SOME VARIABILITY IS ANTICIPATED IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 12Z...WILL
AVG IFR WITH CIGS JUST BELOW 1000 FT AND VSBYS OF 2-3SM. COULD
BRIEFLY SEE LIFR CONDS IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS (PROBABLY MOST
LIKELY AT KORF). GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO AROUND 25 KT AT
ORF/KECG...AROUND 20 KT ELSEWHERE.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 12Z...ALTHOUGH WILL HANG
ONTO IFR CIGS AT MOST SITES THROUGH AROUND 15Z...WITH CIGS LIFTING
TO 1500-2500 FT THEREAFTER. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE NW AND REMAIN
GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. A
WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT/EARLY
FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...DOWNGRADED THE GALE WARNING TO SCA FLAGS FOR NRN COASTAL
WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO PARRAMORE ISLAND. WIND GUSTS HAVE
STRUGGLED TO REACH 34KT OR GREATER AT SFC BUOYS. SCA FOR NRN WATERS
WILL NOW BE IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AFTER WHICH
WINDS AND PRIMARILY SEAS WILL DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STRONG COASTAL LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES
EAST OF ATLANTIC CITY NJ AS OF 4 AM. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS VERY TIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE ADDED
CAA AND DIURNAL EFFECTS ARE CAUSING N-NW WINDS TO EXPERIENCE A BRIEF
SURGE IN SPEEDS. SEAS HAVE QUICKLY RISEN TO 8-12FT IN SRN COASTAL
WATERS AS WELL. THE SURGE IN WINDS/SEAS IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF...
LASTING THROUGH SUNRISE...AFTER WHICH WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY
AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS AFTN TO 5-7FT SRN
WATERS/6-10FT NRN WATERS...AS THE LOW TRACKS NE AND AWAY FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. FOR TONIGHT...THE STRONG LOW TRACKS TWD THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...
KEEPING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. PRESSURE RISES
AROUND 3MB THIS EVENING (OCCURRING BTWN 21Z TODAY AND 06Z TONIGHT)...
INDICATE THAT ANOTHER NWLY SURGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 30KT IS POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING FOR THE BAY/OCEAN AS CAA AND WRAPAROUND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TRAVERSE THE WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON WED.
CONTINUED CAA WILL KEEP NW WINDS ELEVATED WITHIN SCA THRESHOLDS
OVER ALL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL SHOW A MARKED
DECREASE TO 4-5FT BY WED AFTN. ONLY CHANGE MADE TO SCA FLAGS WAS
TO EXTEND CHES BAY AND SRN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 10 PM WED
EVENING BEFORE WINDS/SEAS FALL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. SEAS CONTINUE
TO SUBSIDE THRU WED EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE
WATERS. A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION ON THU WILL SHUNT
THE HIGH OVER THE SE COAST. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CLIPPER IS THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY POTENTIALLY SOLID SCA CONDITIONS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OCEAN CITY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...FELL
SHORT OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS AS WINDS SHIFTED FASTER THAN
EXPECTED FROM ONSHORE E/NE MON AFTN TO OFFSHORE N/NW. DEPARTURES
HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. MDL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPCOMING TIDE THIS AFTN REACHING ABOVE 4 FT
MLLW...BUT THIS APPEARS WELL OVERDONE GIVEN THE N/NW WIND
DIRECTION AND CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. NAM- BASED CBOFS GUIDANCE IS
RUNNING ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER THAN REALITY...BUT IN TERMS OF TREND
SHOWS THE TIDE THIS AFTN TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE HIGH TIDE
EARLIER THIS MORNING THAT ONLY PEAKED AT 3.7 FT MLLW. WILL
MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH MID MORNING...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE
OFFSHORE WIND FLOW.

ACRS THE LOWER BAY DEPARTURES ARE ALSO RUNNING AS HIGH AS 1.5 TO 2
FEET...BUT THIS STILL LEADS TO TIDES FALLING AT LEAST 0.5 FT SHY
OF MINOR FLOODING THIS AFTN. DEPARTURES WILL FALL TONIGHT INTO WED
WITH NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ081-
     089>091-093>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...BMD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271137
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
637 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS
NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING NARROW BAND OF PCPN DROPPING
SOUTH FROM CENTRAL PA SOUTH INTO EASTERN/CENTRAL VA. VSBY AVGG
2-4SM IN SN, AND WE`VE RECEIVED SCATTERED REPORTS OF ~1" ALONG THE
NORTHERN NECK INTO THE PENINSULA, WITH TRAFFIC CAMS SHOWING AT
LEAST A COATING INTO THE TIDEWATER AREA (CONFIRMED BY LOCAL
COOPERATIVE OBSERVER). WE WILL BE MAINTAINING WINTER HEADLINES FOR
A LITTLE LONGER, WITH THIS BAND OF SNSH WELL HANDLED BY THE HRRR
EARLY THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY LOCALES IN NORFOLK OR
RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE ANY MORE THAN AN INCH...BUT WITH
THE HEADLINE ALREADY IN PLACE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO CAUSE
SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...DON`T FEEL DROPPING THE
HEADLINES IS PRUDENT ATTM. WL REVISIT HEADLINES AT 7AM UPDATE. DO
EXPECT DAY CREW WILL BE ABLE TO CLEAR HEADLINES SHORTLY AFTER 14Z
IF NOT SOONER.

HAVE BUMPED POPS UP IN TO CATEGORICAL RANGE FOR COASTAL NE NC, AND
GRADUALLY TAPERED THEM OFF ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE BY MID-LATE
MORNING. DROPPED POPS INTO NO HIGHER THAN 20% BUT HAVE KEPT
FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST FOR FAR WESTERN ZONES, AS ACCUMS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

INTENSIFYING SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE INTO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL POPS DROP OFF BY EARLY AFTN, WITH STRONG CAA
BRINGING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS (25-30MPH GUSTS ALONG THE
COAST/ERN SHORE), AND HOLDING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S (~40
IN THE PIEDMONT) UNDER A CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW PULLS TOWARDS ATLANTIC
CANADA AS COLD SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. CLEARING
SKY AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS WILL ALLOW EARLY MORNING
LOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE THE 20S FOR MOST, W/ WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL WITH SHALLOW MIXING AND A NNE WIND. HIGHS
ONLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR
30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST.

RAIN CHCS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THU/THU NGT AS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS TO
THE GREAT LAKES, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND BY LATE THU NGT. DAY BEGINS
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS. BEST FORCING
REMAINS OFF TO THE NORTH, SO HAVE CAPPED POP AT NO HIGHER THAN 30%
FOR NOW. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH THU NGT AS SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA. FOR HIGHS, SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW
FOR A MODEST WARMUP WITH MAXIMA IN THE U30S ERN SHORE/NRN
NECK...LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND AND U40S FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NW AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK
MOVING FRONTAL WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT
TO SEA MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT
THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES AS OF 06Z (RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW AT KECG)...WITH EITHER LOW MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT.
SOME VARIABILITY IS ANTICIPATED IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 12Z...WILL
AVG IFR WITH CIGS JUST BELOW 1000 FT AND VSBYS OF 2-3SM. COULD
BRIEFLY SEE LIFR CONDS IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS (PROBABLY MOST
LIKELY AT KORF). GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO AROUND 25 KT AT
ORF/KECG...AROUND 20 KT ELSEWHERE.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 12Z...ALTHOUGH WILL HANG
ONTO IFR CIGS AT MOST SITES THROUGH AROUND 15Z...WITH CIGS LIFTING
TO 1500-2500 FT THEREAFTER. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE NW AND REMAIN
GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. A
WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT/EARLY
FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...DOWNGRADED THE GALE WARNING TO SCA FLAGS FOR NRN COASTAL
WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO PARRAMORE ISLAND. WIND GUSTS HAVE
STRUGGLED TO REACH 34KT OR GREATER AT SFC BUOYS. SCA FOR NRN WATERS
WILL NOW BE IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AFTER WHICH
WINDS AND PRIMARILY SEAS WILL DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STRONG COASTAL LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES
EAST OF ATLANTIC CITY NJ AS OF 4 AM. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS VERY TIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE ADDED
CAA AND DIURNAL EFFECTS ARE CAUSING N-NW WINDS TO EXPERIENCE A BRIEF
SURGE IN SPEEDS. SEAS HAVE QUICKLY RISEN TO 8-12FT IN SRN COASTAL
WATERS AS WELL. THE SURGE IN WINDS/SEAS IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF...
LASTING THROUGH SUNRISE...AFTER WHICH WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY
AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS AFTN TO 5-7FT SRN
WATERS/6-10FT NRN WATERS...AS THE LOW TRACKS NE AND AWAY FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. FOR TONIGHT...THE STRONG LOW TRACKS TWD THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...
KEEPING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. PRESSURE RISES
AROUND 3MB THIS EVENING (OCCURRING BTWN 21Z TODAY AND 06Z TONIGHT)...
INDICATE THAT ANOTHER NWLY SURGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 30KT IS POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING FOR THE BAY/OCEAN AS CAA AND WRAPAROUND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TRAVERSE THE WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON WED.
CONTINUED CAA WILL KEEP NW WINDS ELEVATED WITHIN SCA THRESHOLDS
OVER ALL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL SHOW A MARKED
DECREASE TO 4-5FT BY WED AFTN. ONLY CHANGE MADE TO SCA FLAGS WAS
TO EXTEND CHES BAY AND SRN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 10 PM WED
EVENING BEFORE WINDS/SEAS FALL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. SEAS CONTINUE
TO SUBSIDE THRU WED EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE
WATERS. A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION ON THU WILL SHUNT
THE HIGH OVER THE SE COAST. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CLIPPER IS THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY POTENTIALLY SOLID SCA CONDITIONS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OCEAN CITY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...FELL
SHORT OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS AS WINDS SHIFTED FASTER THAN
EXPECTED FROM ONSHORE E/NE MON AFTN TO OFFSHORE N/NW. DEPARTURES
HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. MDL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPCOMING TIDE THIS AFTN REACHING ABOVE 4 FT
MLLW...BUT THIS APPEARS WELL OVERDONE GIVEN THE N/NW WIND
DIRECTION AND CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. NAM- BASED CBOFS GUIDANCE IS
RUNNING ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER THAN REALITY...BUT IN TERMS OF TREND
SHOWS THE TIDE THIS AFTN TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE HIGH TIDE
EARLIER THIS MORNING THAT ONLY PEAKED AT 3.7 FT MLLW. WILL
MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH MID MORNING...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE
OFFSHORE WIND FLOW.

ACRS THE LOWER BAY DEPARTURES ARE ALSO RUNNING AS HIGH AS 1.5 TO 2
FEET...BUT THIS STILL LEADS TO TIDES FALLING AT LEAST 0.5 FT SHY
OF MINOR FLOODING THIS AFTN. DEPARTURES WILL FALL TONIGHT INTO WED
WITH NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ081-
     089>091-093>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...BMD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271137
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
637 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS
NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING NARROW BAND OF PCPN DROPPING
SOUTH FROM CENTRAL PA SOUTH INTO EASTERN/CENTRAL VA. VSBY AVGG
2-4SM IN SN, AND WE`VE RECEIVED SCATTERED REPORTS OF ~1" ALONG THE
NORTHERN NECK INTO THE PENINSULA, WITH TRAFFIC CAMS SHOWING AT
LEAST A COATING INTO THE TIDEWATER AREA (CONFIRMED BY LOCAL
COOPERATIVE OBSERVER). WE WILL BE MAINTAINING WINTER HEADLINES FOR
A LITTLE LONGER, WITH THIS BAND OF SNSH WELL HANDLED BY THE HRRR
EARLY THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY LOCALES IN NORFOLK OR
RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE ANY MORE THAN AN INCH...BUT WITH
THE HEADLINE ALREADY IN PLACE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO CAUSE
SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...DON`T FEEL DROPPING THE
HEADLINES IS PRUDENT ATTM. WL REVISIT HEADLINES AT 7AM UPDATE. DO
EXPECT DAY CREW WILL BE ABLE TO CLEAR HEADLINES SHORTLY AFTER 14Z
IF NOT SOONER.

HAVE BUMPED POPS UP IN TO CATEGORICAL RANGE FOR COASTAL NE NC, AND
GRADUALLY TAPERED THEM OFF ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE BY MID-LATE
MORNING. DROPPED POPS INTO NO HIGHER THAN 20% BUT HAVE KEPT
FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST FOR FAR WESTERN ZONES, AS ACCUMS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

INTENSIFYING SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE INTO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL POPS DROP OFF BY EARLY AFTN, WITH STRONG CAA
BRINGING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS (25-30MPH GUSTS ALONG THE
COAST/ERN SHORE), AND HOLDING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S (~40
IN THE PIEDMONT) UNDER A CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW PULLS TOWARDS ATLANTIC
CANADA AS COLD SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. CLEARING
SKY AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS WILL ALLOW EARLY MORNING
LOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE THE 20S FOR MOST, W/ WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL WITH SHALLOW MIXING AND A NNE WIND. HIGHS
ONLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR
30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST.

RAIN CHCS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THU/THU NGT AS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS TO
THE GREAT LAKES, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND BY LATE THU NGT. DAY BEGINS
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS. BEST FORCING
REMAINS OFF TO THE NORTH, SO HAVE CAPPED POP AT NO HIGHER THAN 30%
FOR NOW. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH THU NGT AS SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA. FOR HIGHS, SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW
FOR A MODEST WARMUP WITH MAXIMA IN THE U30S ERN SHORE/NRN
NECK...LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND AND U40S FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NW AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK
MOVING FRONTAL WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT
TO SEA MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT
THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES AS OF 06Z (RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW AT KECG)...WITH EITHER LOW MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT.
SOME VARIABILITY IS ANTICIPATED IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 12Z...WILL
AVG IFR WITH CIGS JUST BELOW 1000 FT AND VSBYS OF 2-3SM. COULD
BRIEFLY SEE LIFR CONDS IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS (PROBABLY MOST
LIKELY AT KORF). GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO AROUND 25 KT AT
ORF/KECG...AROUND 20 KT ELSEWHERE.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 12Z...ALTHOUGH WILL HANG
ONTO IFR CIGS AT MOST SITES THROUGH AROUND 15Z...WITH CIGS LIFTING
TO 1500-2500 FT THEREAFTER. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE NW AND REMAIN
GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. A
WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT/EARLY
FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...DOWNGRADED THE GALE WARNING TO SCA FLAGS FOR NRN COASTAL
WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO PARRAMORE ISLAND. WIND GUSTS HAVE
STRUGGLED TO REACH 34KT OR GREATER AT SFC BUOYS. SCA FOR NRN WATERS
WILL NOW BE IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AFTER WHICH
WINDS AND PRIMARILY SEAS WILL DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STRONG COASTAL LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES
EAST OF ATLANTIC CITY NJ AS OF 4 AM. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS VERY TIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE ADDED
CAA AND DIURNAL EFFECTS ARE CAUSING N-NW WINDS TO EXPERIENCE A BRIEF
SURGE IN SPEEDS. SEAS HAVE QUICKLY RISEN TO 8-12FT IN SRN COASTAL
WATERS AS WELL. THE SURGE IN WINDS/SEAS IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF...
LASTING THROUGH SUNRISE...AFTER WHICH WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY
AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS AFTN TO 5-7FT SRN
WATERS/6-10FT NRN WATERS...AS THE LOW TRACKS NE AND AWAY FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. FOR TONIGHT...THE STRONG LOW TRACKS TWD THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...
KEEPING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. PRESSURE RISES
AROUND 3MB THIS EVENING (OCCURRING BTWN 21Z TODAY AND 06Z TONIGHT)...
INDICATE THAT ANOTHER NWLY SURGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 30KT IS POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING FOR THE BAY/OCEAN AS CAA AND WRAPAROUND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TRAVERSE THE WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON WED.
CONTINUED CAA WILL KEEP NW WINDS ELEVATED WITHIN SCA THRESHOLDS
OVER ALL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL SHOW A MARKED
DECREASE TO 4-5FT BY WED AFTN. ONLY CHANGE MADE TO SCA FLAGS WAS
TO EXTEND CHES BAY AND SRN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 10 PM WED
EVENING BEFORE WINDS/SEAS FALL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. SEAS CONTINUE
TO SUBSIDE THRU WED EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE
WATERS. A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION ON THU WILL SHUNT
THE HIGH OVER THE SE COAST. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CLIPPER IS THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY POTENTIALLY SOLID SCA CONDITIONS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OCEAN CITY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...FELL
SHORT OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS AS WINDS SHIFTED FASTER THAN
EXPECTED FROM ONSHORE E/NE MON AFTN TO OFFSHORE N/NW. DEPARTURES
HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. MDL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPCOMING TIDE THIS AFTN REACHING ABOVE 4 FT
MLLW...BUT THIS APPEARS WELL OVERDONE GIVEN THE N/NW WIND
DIRECTION AND CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. NAM- BASED CBOFS GUIDANCE IS
RUNNING ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER THAN REALITY...BUT IN TERMS OF TREND
SHOWS THE TIDE THIS AFTN TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE HIGH TIDE
EARLIER THIS MORNING THAT ONLY PEAKED AT 3.7 FT MLLW. WILL
MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH MID MORNING...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE
OFFSHORE WIND FLOW.

ACRS THE LOWER BAY DEPARTURES ARE ALSO RUNNING AS HIGH AS 1.5 TO 2
FEET...BUT THIS STILL LEADS TO TIDES FALLING AT LEAST 0.5 FT SHY
OF MINOR FLOODING THIS AFTN. DEPARTURES WILL FALL TONIGHT INTO WED
WITH NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ081-
     089>091-093>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...BMD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271012 CCA
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
500 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS
NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING NARROW BAND OF PCPN DROPPING
SOUTH FROM CENTRAL PA SOUTH INTO EASTERN/CENTRAL VA. VSBY AVGG
2-4SM IN SN, AND WE`VE RECEIVED SCATTERED REPORTS OF ~1" ALONG THE
NORTHERN NECK INTO THE PENINSULA, WITH TRAFFIC CAMS SHOWING AT
LEAST A COATING INTO THE TIDEWATER AREA (CONFIRMED BY LOCAL
COOPERATIVE OBSERVER). WE WILL BE MAINTAINING WINTER HEADLINES FOR
A LITTLE LONGER, WITH THIS BAND OF SNSH WELL HANDLED BY THE HRRR
EARLY THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY LOCALES IN NORFOLK OR
RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE ANY MORE THAN AN INCH...BUT WITH
THE HEADLINE ALREADY IN PLACE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO CAUSE
SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...DON`T FEEL DROPPING THE
HEADLINES IS PRUDENT ATTM. WL REVISIT HEADLINES AT 7AM UPDATE. DO
EXPECT DAY CREW WILL BE ABLE TO CLEAR HEADLINES SHORTLY AFTER 14Z
IF NOT SOONER.

HAVE BUMPED POPS UP IN TO CATEGORICAL RANGE FOR COASTAL NE NC, AND
GRADUALLY TAPERED THEM OFF ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE BY MID-LATE
MORNING. DROPPED POPS INTO NO HIGHER THAN 20% BUT HAVE KEPT
FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST FOR FAR WESTERN ZONES, AS ACCUMS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

INTENSIFYING SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE INTO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL POPS DROP OFF BY EARLY AFTN, WITH STRONG CAA
BRINGING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS (25-30MPH GUSTS ALONG THE
COAST/ERN SHORE), AND HOLDING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S (~40
IN THE PIEDMONT) UNDER A CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW PULLS TOWARDS ATLANTIC
CANADA AS COLD SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. CLEARING
SKY AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS WILL ALLOW EARLY MORNING
LOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE THE 20S FOR MOST, W/ WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL WITH SHALLOW MIXING AND A NNE WIND. HIGHS
ONLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR
30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST.

RAIN CHCS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THU/THU NGT AS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS TO
THE GREAT LAKES, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND BY LATE THU NGT. DAY BEGINS
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS. BEST FORCING
REMAINS OFF TO THE NORTH, SO HAVE CAPPED POP AT NO HIGHER THAN 30%
FOR NOW. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH THU NGT AS SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA. FOR HIGHS, SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW
FOR A MODEST WARMUP WITH MAXIMA IN THE U30S ERN SHORE/NRN
NECK...LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND AND U40S FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NW AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK
MOVING FRONTAL WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT
TO SEA MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT
THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES AS OF 06Z (RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW AT KECG)...WITH EITHER LOW MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT.
SOME VARIABILITY IS ANTICIPATED IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 12Z...WILL
AVG IFR WITH CIGS JUST BELOW 1000 FT AND VSBYS OF 2-3SM. COULD
BRIEFLY SEE LIFR CONDS IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS (PROBABLY MOST
LIKELY AT KORF). GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO AROUND 25 KT AT
ORF/KECG...AROUND 20 KT ELSEWHERE.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 12Z...ALTHOUGH WILL HANG
ONTO IFR CIGS AT MOST SITES THROUGH AROUND 15Z...WITH CIGS LIFTING
TO 1500-2500 FT THEREAFTER. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE NW AND REMAIN
GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. A
WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT/EARLY
FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG COASTAL LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES EAST OF ATLANTIC CITY
NJ AS OF 4 AM. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS VERY
TIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE ADDED CAA AND
DIURNAL EFFECTS ARE CAUSING N-NW WINDS TO EXPERIENCE A SURGE IN
SPEEDS BUT STILL WITHIN GALES FOR NRN OCEAN AND WITHIN STRONG SCA
FOR BAY/RIVERS/SOUND. SEAS HAVE QUICKLY RISEN TO 8-12FT IN SRN
COASTAL WATERS AS WELL. THE SURGE IN WINDS/SEAS IS EXPECTED TO BE
BRIEF...LASTING THROUGH SUNRISE...AFTER WHICH WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS AFTN TO 5-7FT SRN
WATERS/6-10FT NRN WATERS...AS THE LOW TRACKS NE AND AWAY FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST AND MODEL
GUIDANCE...GALES MAY BE REPLACED BY STRONG SCA FLAGS PRIOR TO 7 PM
THIS EVENING. WILL MONITOR TRENDS IN WINDS/SEAS AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. FOR TONIGHT...THE STRONG LOW TRACKS TWD THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...KEEPING A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. PRESSURE RISES AROUND 3MB
THIS EVENING (OCCURRING BTWN 21Z TODAY AND 06Z TONIGHT)...INDICATE
THAT ANOTHER NWLLY SURGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 30KT IS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING FOR THE BAY/OCEAN AS CAA AND WRAPAROUND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TRAVERSE THE WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON WED.
CONTINUED CAA WILL KEEP NW WINDS ELEVATED WITHIN SCA THRESHOLDS OVER
ALL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL SHOW A MARKED
DECREASE TO 4-5FT BY WED AFTN. ONLY CHANGE MADE TO SCA FLAGS WAS TO
EXTEND CHES BAY AND SRN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 10 PM WED EVENING
BEFORE WINDS/SEAS FALL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. SEAS CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE THRU WED EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE WATERS. A
CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION ON THU WILL SHUNT THE HIGH
OVER THE SE COAST. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER IS
THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
POTENTIALLY SOLID SCA CONDITIONS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OCEAN CITY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...FELL
SHORT OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS AS WINDS SHIFTED FASTER THAN
EXPECTED FROM ONSHORE E/NE MON AFTN TO OFFSHORE N/NW. DEPARTURES
HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. MDL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPCOMING TIDE THIS AFTN REACHING ABOVE 4 FT
MLLW...BUT THIS APPEARS WELL OVERDONE GIVEN THE N/NW WIND
DIRECTION AND CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. NAM- BASED CBOFS GUIDANCE IS
RUNNING ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER THAN REALITY...BUT IN TERMS OF TREND
SHOWS THE TIDE THIS AFTN TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE HIGH TIDE
EARLIER THIS MORNING THAT ONLY PEAKED AT 3.7 FT MLLW. WILL
MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH MID MORNING...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
COASTAL FLOOD ADVSIORY AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE
OFFSHORE WIND FLOW.

ACRS THE LOWER BAY DEPARTURES ARE ALSO RUNNING AS HIGH AS 1.5 TO 2
FEET...BUT THIS STILL LEADS TO TIDES FALLING AT LEAST 0.5 FT SHY
OF MINOR FLOODING THIS AFTN. DEPARTURES WILL FALL TONIGHT INTO WED
WITH NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ081-
     089>091-093>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...BMD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ










000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271012 CCA
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
500 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS
NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING NARROW BAND OF PCPN DROPPING
SOUTH FROM CENTRAL PA SOUTH INTO EASTERN/CENTRAL VA. VSBY AVGG
2-4SM IN SN, AND WE`VE RECEIVED SCATTERED REPORTS OF ~1" ALONG THE
NORTHERN NECK INTO THE PENINSULA, WITH TRAFFIC CAMS SHOWING AT
LEAST A COATING INTO THE TIDEWATER AREA (CONFIRMED BY LOCAL
COOPERATIVE OBSERVER). WE WILL BE MAINTAINING WINTER HEADLINES FOR
A LITTLE LONGER, WITH THIS BAND OF SNSH WELL HANDLED BY THE HRRR
EARLY THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY LOCALES IN NORFOLK OR
RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE ANY MORE THAN AN INCH...BUT WITH
THE HEADLINE ALREADY IN PLACE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO CAUSE
SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...DON`T FEEL DROPPING THE
HEADLINES IS PRUDENT ATTM. WL REVISIT HEADLINES AT 7AM UPDATE. DO
EXPECT DAY CREW WILL BE ABLE TO CLEAR HEADLINES SHORTLY AFTER 14Z
IF NOT SOONER.

HAVE BUMPED POPS UP IN TO CATEGORICAL RANGE FOR COASTAL NE NC, AND
GRADUALLY TAPERED THEM OFF ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE BY MID-LATE
MORNING. DROPPED POPS INTO NO HIGHER THAN 20% BUT HAVE KEPT
FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST FOR FAR WESTERN ZONES, AS ACCUMS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

INTENSIFYING SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE INTO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL POPS DROP OFF BY EARLY AFTN, WITH STRONG CAA
BRINGING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS (25-30MPH GUSTS ALONG THE
COAST/ERN SHORE), AND HOLDING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S (~40
IN THE PIEDMONT) UNDER A CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW PULLS TOWARDS ATLANTIC
CANADA AS COLD SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. CLEARING
SKY AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS WILL ALLOW EARLY MORNING
LOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE THE 20S FOR MOST, W/ WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL WITH SHALLOW MIXING AND A NNE WIND. HIGHS
ONLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR
30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST.

RAIN CHCS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THU/THU NGT AS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS TO
THE GREAT LAKES, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND BY LATE THU NGT. DAY BEGINS
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS. BEST FORCING
REMAINS OFF TO THE NORTH, SO HAVE CAPPED POP AT NO HIGHER THAN 30%
FOR NOW. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH THU NGT AS SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA. FOR HIGHS, SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW
FOR A MODEST WARMUP WITH MAXIMA IN THE U30S ERN SHORE/NRN
NECK...LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND AND U40S FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NW AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK
MOVING FRONTAL WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT
TO SEA MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT
THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES AS OF 06Z (RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW AT KECG)...WITH EITHER LOW MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT.
SOME VARIABILITY IS ANTICIPATED IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 12Z...WILL
AVG IFR WITH CIGS JUST BELOW 1000 FT AND VSBYS OF 2-3SM. COULD
BRIEFLY SEE LIFR CONDS IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS (PROBABLY MOST
LIKELY AT KORF). GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO AROUND 25 KT AT
ORF/KECG...AROUND 20 KT ELSEWHERE.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 12Z...ALTHOUGH WILL HANG
ONTO IFR CIGS AT MOST SITES THROUGH AROUND 15Z...WITH CIGS LIFTING
TO 1500-2500 FT THEREAFTER. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE NW AND REMAIN
GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. A
WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT/EARLY
FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG COASTAL LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES EAST OF ATLANTIC CITY
NJ AS OF 4 AM. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS VERY
TIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE ADDED CAA AND
DIURNAL EFFECTS ARE CAUSING N-NW WINDS TO EXPERIENCE A SURGE IN
SPEEDS BUT STILL WITHIN GALES FOR NRN OCEAN AND WITHIN STRONG SCA
FOR BAY/RIVERS/SOUND. SEAS HAVE QUICKLY RISEN TO 8-12FT IN SRN
COASTAL WATERS AS WELL. THE SURGE IN WINDS/SEAS IS EXPECTED TO BE
BRIEF...LASTING THROUGH SUNRISE...AFTER WHICH WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS AFTN TO 5-7FT SRN
WATERS/6-10FT NRN WATERS...AS THE LOW TRACKS NE AND AWAY FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST AND MODEL
GUIDANCE...GALES MAY BE REPLACED BY STRONG SCA FLAGS PRIOR TO 7 PM
THIS EVENING. WILL MONITOR TRENDS IN WINDS/SEAS AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. FOR TONIGHT...THE STRONG LOW TRACKS TWD THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...KEEPING A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. PRESSURE RISES AROUND 3MB
THIS EVENING (OCCURRING BTWN 21Z TODAY AND 06Z TONIGHT)...INDICATE
THAT ANOTHER NWLLY SURGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 30KT IS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING FOR THE BAY/OCEAN AS CAA AND WRAPAROUND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TRAVERSE THE WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON WED.
CONTINUED CAA WILL KEEP NW WINDS ELEVATED WITHIN SCA THRESHOLDS OVER
ALL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL SHOW A MARKED
DECREASE TO 4-5FT BY WED AFTN. ONLY CHANGE MADE TO SCA FLAGS WAS TO
EXTEND CHES BAY AND SRN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 10 PM WED EVENING
BEFORE WINDS/SEAS FALL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. SEAS CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE THRU WED EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE WATERS. A
CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION ON THU WILL SHUNT THE HIGH
OVER THE SE COAST. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER IS
THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
POTENTIALLY SOLID SCA CONDITIONS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OCEAN CITY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...FELL
SHORT OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS AS WINDS SHIFTED FASTER THAN
EXPECTED FROM ONSHORE E/NE MON AFTN TO OFFSHORE N/NW. DEPARTURES
HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. MDL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPCOMING TIDE THIS AFTN REACHING ABOVE 4 FT
MLLW...BUT THIS APPEARS WELL OVERDONE GIVEN THE N/NW WIND
DIRECTION AND CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. NAM- BASED CBOFS GUIDANCE IS
RUNNING ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER THAN REALITY...BUT IN TERMS OF TREND
SHOWS THE TIDE THIS AFTN TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE HIGH TIDE
EARLIER THIS MORNING THAT ONLY PEAKED AT 3.7 FT MLLW. WILL
MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH MID MORNING...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
COASTAL FLOOD ADVSIORY AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE
OFFSHORE WIND FLOW.

ACRS THE LOWER BAY DEPARTURES ARE ALSO RUNNING AS HIGH AS 1.5 TO 2
FEET...BUT THIS STILL LEADS TO TIDES FALLING AT LEAST 0.5 FT SHY
OF MINOR FLOODING THIS AFTN. DEPARTURES WILL FALL TONIGHT INTO WED
WITH NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ081-
     089>091-093>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...BMD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ










000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271012 CCA
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
500 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS
NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING NARROW BAND OF PCPN DROPPING
SOUTH FROM CENTRAL PA SOUTH INTO EASTERN/CENTRAL VA. VSBY AVGG
2-4SM IN SN, AND WE`VE RECEIVED SCATTERED REPORTS OF ~1" ALONG THE
NORTHERN NECK INTO THE PENINSULA, WITH TRAFFIC CAMS SHOWING AT
LEAST A COATING INTO THE TIDEWATER AREA (CONFIRMED BY LOCAL
COOPERATIVE OBSERVER). WE WILL BE MAINTAINING WINTER HEADLINES FOR
A LITTLE LONGER, WITH THIS BAND OF SNSH WELL HANDLED BY THE HRRR
EARLY THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY LOCALES IN NORFOLK OR
RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE ANY MORE THAN AN INCH...BUT WITH
THE HEADLINE ALREADY IN PLACE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO CAUSE
SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...DON`T FEEL DROPPING THE
HEADLINES IS PRUDENT ATTM. WL REVISIT HEADLINES AT 7AM UPDATE. DO
EXPECT DAY CREW WILL BE ABLE TO CLEAR HEADLINES SHORTLY AFTER 14Z
IF NOT SOONER.

HAVE BUMPED POPS UP IN TO CATEGORICAL RANGE FOR COASTAL NE NC, AND
GRADUALLY TAPERED THEM OFF ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE BY MID-LATE
MORNING. DROPPED POPS INTO NO HIGHER THAN 20% BUT HAVE KEPT
FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST FOR FAR WESTERN ZONES, AS ACCUMS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

INTENSIFYING SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE INTO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL POPS DROP OFF BY EARLY AFTN, WITH STRONG CAA
BRINGING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS (25-30MPH GUSTS ALONG THE
COAST/ERN SHORE), AND HOLDING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S (~40
IN THE PIEDMONT) UNDER A CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW PULLS TOWARDS ATLANTIC
CANADA AS COLD SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. CLEARING
SKY AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS WILL ALLOW EARLY MORNING
LOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE THE 20S FOR MOST, W/ WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL WITH SHALLOW MIXING AND A NNE WIND. HIGHS
ONLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR
30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST.

RAIN CHCS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THU/THU NGT AS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS TO
THE GREAT LAKES, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND BY LATE THU NGT. DAY BEGINS
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS. BEST FORCING
REMAINS OFF TO THE NORTH, SO HAVE CAPPED POP AT NO HIGHER THAN 30%
FOR NOW. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH THU NGT AS SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA. FOR HIGHS, SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW
FOR A MODEST WARMUP WITH MAXIMA IN THE U30S ERN SHORE/NRN
NECK...LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND AND U40S FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NW AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK
MOVING FRONTAL WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT
TO SEA MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT
THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES AS OF 06Z (RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW AT KECG)...WITH EITHER LOW MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT.
SOME VARIABILITY IS ANTICIPATED IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 12Z...WILL
AVG IFR WITH CIGS JUST BELOW 1000 FT AND VSBYS OF 2-3SM. COULD
BRIEFLY SEE LIFR CONDS IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS (PROBABLY MOST
LIKELY AT KORF). GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO AROUND 25 KT AT
ORF/KECG...AROUND 20 KT ELSEWHERE.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 12Z...ALTHOUGH WILL HANG
ONTO IFR CIGS AT MOST SITES THROUGH AROUND 15Z...WITH CIGS LIFTING
TO 1500-2500 FT THEREAFTER. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE NW AND REMAIN
GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. A
WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT/EARLY
FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG COASTAL LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES EAST OF ATLANTIC CITY
NJ AS OF 4 AM. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS VERY
TIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE ADDED CAA AND
DIURNAL EFFECTS ARE CAUSING N-NW WINDS TO EXPERIENCE A SURGE IN
SPEEDS BUT STILL WITHIN GALES FOR NRN OCEAN AND WITHIN STRONG SCA
FOR BAY/RIVERS/SOUND. SEAS HAVE QUICKLY RISEN TO 8-12FT IN SRN
COASTAL WATERS AS WELL. THE SURGE IN WINDS/SEAS IS EXPECTED TO BE
BRIEF...LASTING THROUGH SUNRISE...AFTER WHICH WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS AFTN TO 5-7FT SRN
WATERS/6-10FT NRN WATERS...AS THE LOW TRACKS NE AND AWAY FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST AND MODEL
GUIDANCE...GALES MAY BE REPLACED BY STRONG SCA FLAGS PRIOR TO 7 PM
THIS EVENING. WILL MONITOR TRENDS IN WINDS/SEAS AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. FOR TONIGHT...THE STRONG LOW TRACKS TWD THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...KEEPING A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. PRESSURE RISES AROUND 3MB
THIS EVENING (OCCURRING BTWN 21Z TODAY AND 06Z TONIGHT)...INDICATE
THAT ANOTHER NWLLY SURGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 30KT IS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING FOR THE BAY/OCEAN AS CAA AND WRAPAROUND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TRAVERSE THE WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON WED.
CONTINUED CAA WILL KEEP NW WINDS ELEVATED WITHIN SCA THRESHOLDS OVER
ALL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL SHOW A MARKED
DECREASE TO 4-5FT BY WED AFTN. ONLY CHANGE MADE TO SCA FLAGS WAS TO
EXTEND CHES BAY AND SRN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 10 PM WED EVENING
BEFORE WINDS/SEAS FALL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. SEAS CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE THRU WED EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE WATERS. A
CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION ON THU WILL SHUNT THE HIGH
OVER THE SE COAST. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER IS
THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
POTENTIALLY SOLID SCA CONDITIONS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OCEAN CITY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...FELL
SHORT OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS AS WINDS SHIFTED FASTER THAN
EXPECTED FROM ONSHORE E/NE MON AFTN TO OFFSHORE N/NW. DEPARTURES
HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. MDL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPCOMING TIDE THIS AFTN REACHING ABOVE 4 FT
MLLW...BUT THIS APPEARS WELL OVERDONE GIVEN THE N/NW WIND
DIRECTION AND CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. NAM- BASED CBOFS GUIDANCE IS
RUNNING ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER THAN REALITY...BUT IN TERMS OF TREND
SHOWS THE TIDE THIS AFTN TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE HIGH TIDE
EARLIER THIS MORNING THAT ONLY PEAKED AT 3.7 FT MLLW. WILL
MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH MID MORNING...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
COASTAL FLOOD ADVSIORY AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE
OFFSHORE WIND FLOW.

ACRS THE LOWER BAY DEPARTURES ARE ALSO RUNNING AS HIGH AS 1.5 TO 2
FEET...BUT THIS STILL LEADS TO TIDES FALLING AT LEAST 0.5 FT SHY
OF MINOR FLOODING THIS AFTN. DEPARTURES WILL FALL TONIGHT INTO WED
WITH NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ081-
     089>091-093>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...BMD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ










000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271012 CCA
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
500 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS
NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING NARROW BAND OF PCPN DROPPING
SOUTH FROM CENTRAL PA SOUTH INTO EASTERN/CENTRAL VA. VSBY AVGG
2-4SM IN SN, AND WE`VE RECEIVED SCATTERED REPORTS OF ~1" ALONG THE
NORTHERN NECK INTO THE PENINSULA, WITH TRAFFIC CAMS SHOWING AT
LEAST A COATING INTO THE TIDEWATER AREA (CONFIRMED BY LOCAL
COOPERATIVE OBSERVER). WE WILL BE MAINTAINING WINTER HEADLINES FOR
A LITTLE LONGER, WITH THIS BAND OF SNSH WELL HANDLED BY THE HRRR
EARLY THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY LOCALES IN NORFOLK OR
RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE ANY MORE THAN AN INCH...BUT WITH
THE HEADLINE ALREADY IN PLACE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO CAUSE
SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...DON`T FEEL DROPPING THE
HEADLINES IS PRUDENT ATTM. WL REVISIT HEADLINES AT 7AM UPDATE. DO
EXPECT DAY CREW WILL BE ABLE TO CLEAR HEADLINES SHORTLY AFTER 14Z
IF NOT SOONER.

HAVE BUMPED POPS UP IN TO CATEGORICAL RANGE FOR COASTAL NE NC, AND
GRADUALLY TAPERED THEM OFF ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE BY MID-LATE
MORNING. DROPPED POPS INTO NO HIGHER THAN 20% BUT HAVE KEPT
FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST FOR FAR WESTERN ZONES, AS ACCUMS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

INTENSIFYING SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE INTO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL POPS DROP OFF BY EARLY AFTN, WITH STRONG CAA
BRINGING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS (25-30MPH GUSTS ALONG THE
COAST/ERN SHORE), AND HOLDING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S (~40
IN THE PIEDMONT) UNDER A CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW PULLS TOWARDS ATLANTIC
CANADA AS COLD SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. CLEARING
SKY AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS WILL ALLOW EARLY MORNING
LOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE THE 20S FOR MOST, W/ WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL WITH SHALLOW MIXING AND A NNE WIND. HIGHS
ONLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR
30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST.

RAIN CHCS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THU/THU NGT AS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS TO
THE GREAT LAKES, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND BY LATE THU NGT. DAY BEGINS
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS. BEST FORCING
REMAINS OFF TO THE NORTH, SO HAVE CAPPED POP AT NO HIGHER THAN 30%
FOR NOW. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH THU NGT AS SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA. FOR HIGHS, SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW
FOR A MODEST WARMUP WITH MAXIMA IN THE U30S ERN SHORE/NRN
NECK...LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND AND U40S FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NW AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK
MOVING FRONTAL WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT
TO SEA MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT
THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES AS OF 06Z (RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW AT KECG)...WITH EITHER LOW MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT.
SOME VARIABILITY IS ANTICIPATED IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 12Z...WILL
AVG IFR WITH CIGS JUST BELOW 1000 FT AND VSBYS OF 2-3SM. COULD
BRIEFLY SEE LIFR CONDS IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS (PROBABLY MOST
LIKELY AT KORF). GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO AROUND 25 KT AT
ORF/KECG...AROUND 20 KT ELSEWHERE.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 12Z...ALTHOUGH WILL HANG
ONTO IFR CIGS AT MOST SITES THROUGH AROUND 15Z...WITH CIGS LIFTING
TO 1500-2500 FT THEREAFTER. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE NW AND REMAIN
GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. A
WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT/EARLY
FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG COASTAL LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES EAST OF ATLANTIC CITY
NJ AS OF 4 AM. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS VERY
TIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE ADDED CAA AND
DIURNAL EFFECTS ARE CAUSING N-NW WINDS TO EXPERIENCE A SURGE IN
SPEEDS BUT STILL WITHIN GALES FOR NRN OCEAN AND WITHIN STRONG SCA
FOR BAY/RIVERS/SOUND. SEAS HAVE QUICKLY RISEN TO 8-12FT IN SRN
COASTAL WATERS AS WELL. THE SURGE IN WINDS/SEAS IS EXPECTED TO BE
BRIEF...LASTING THROUGH SUNRISE...AFTER WHICH WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS AFTN TO 5-7FT SRN
WATERS/6-10FT NRN WATERS...AS THE LOW TRACKS NE AND AWAY FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST AND MODEL
GUIDANCE...GALES MAY BE REPLACED BY STRONG SCA FLAGS PRIOR TO 7 PM
THIS EVENING. WILL MONITOR TRENDS IN WINDS/SEAS AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. FOR TONIGHT...THE STRONG LOW TRACKS TWD THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...KEEPING A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. PRESSURE RISES AROUND 3MB
THIS EVENING (OCCURRING BTWN 21Z TODAY AND 06Z TONIGHT)...INDICATE
THAT ANOTHER NWLLY SURGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 30KT IS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING FOR THE BAY/OCEAN AS CAA AND WRAPAROUND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TRAVERSE THE WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON WED.
CONTINUED CAA WILL KEEP NW WINDS ELEVATED WITHIN SCA THRESHOLDS OVER
ALL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL SHOW A MARKED
DECREASE TO 4-5FT BY WED AFTN. ONLY CHANGE MADE TO SCA FLAGS WAS TO
EXTEND CHES BAY AND SRN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 10 PM WED EVENING
BEFORE WINDS/SEAS FALL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. SEAS CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE THRU WED EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE WATERS. A
CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION ON THU WILL SHUNT THE HIGH
OVER THE SE COAST. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER IS
THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
POTENTIALLY SOLID SCA CONDITIONS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OCEAN CITY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...FELL
SHORT OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS AS WINDS SHIFTED FASTER THAN
EXPECTED FROM ONSHORE E/NE MON AFTN TO OFFSHORE N/NW. DEPARTURES
HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. MDL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPCOMING TIDE THIS AFTN REACHING ABOVE 4 FT
MLLW...BUT THIS APPEARS WELL OVERDONE GIVEN THE N/NW WIND
DIRECTION AND CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. NAM- BASED CBOFS GUIDANCE IS
RUNNING ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER THAN REALITY...BUT IN TERMS OF TREND
SHOWS THE TIDE THIS AFTN TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE HIGH TIDE
EARLIER THIS MORNING THAT ONLY PEAKED AT 3.7 FT MLLW. WILL
MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH MID MORNING...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
COASTAL FLOOD ADVSIORY AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE
OFFSHORE WIND FLOW.

ACRS THE LOWER BAY DEPARTURES ARE ALSO RUNNING AS HIGH AS 1.5 TO 2
FEET...BUT THIS STILL LEADS TO TIDES FALLING AT LEAST 0.5 FT SHY
OF MINOR FLOODING THIS AFTN. DEPARTURES WILL FALL TONIGHT INTO WED
WITH NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ081-
     089>091-093>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...BMD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ










000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271000
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
500 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS
NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING NARROW BAND OF PCPN DROPPING
SOUTH FROM CENTRAL PA SOUTH INTO EASTERN/CENTRAL VA. VSBY AVGG
2-4SM IN SN, AND WE`VE RECEIVED SCATTERED REPORTS OF ~1" ALONG THE
NORTHERN NECK INTO THE PENINSULA, WITH TRAFFIC CAMS SHOWING AT
LEAST A COATING INTO THE TIDEWATER AREA (CONFIRMED BY LOCAL
COOPERATIVE OBSERVER). WE WILL BE MAINTAINING WINTER HEADLINES FOR
A LITTLE LONGER, WITH THIS BAND OF SNSH WELL HANDLED BY THE HRRR
EARLY THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY LOCALES IN NORFOLK OR
RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE ANY MORE THAN AN INCH...BUT WITH
THE HEADLINE ALREADY IN PLACE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO CAUSE
SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...DON`T FEEL DROPPING THE
HEADLINES IS PRUDENT ATTM. WL REVISIT HEADLINES AT 7AM UPDATE. DO
EXPECT DAY CREW WILL BE ABLE TO CLEAR HEADLINES SHORTLY AFTER 14Z
IF NOT SOONER.

HAVE BUMPED POPS UP IN TO CATEGORICAL RANGE FOR COASTAL NE NC, AND
GRADUALLY TAPERED THEM OFF ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE BY MID-LATE
MORNING. DROPPED POPS INTO NO HIGHER THAN 20% BUT HAVE KEPT
FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST FOR FAR WESTERN ZONES, AS ACCUMS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

INTENSIFYING SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE INTO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL POPS DROP OFF BY EARLY AFTN, WITH STRONG CAA
BRINGING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS (25-30MPH GUSTS ALONG THE
COAST/ERN SHORE), AND HOLDING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S (~40
IN THE PIEDMONT) UNDER A CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW PULLS TOWARDS ATLANTIC
CANADA AS COLD SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. CLEARING
SKY AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS WILL ALLOW EARLY MORNING
LOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE THE 20S FOR MOST, W/ WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL WITH SHALLOW MIXING AND A NNE WIND. HIGHS
ONLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR
30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST.

RAIN CHCS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THU/THU NGT AS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS TO
THE GREAT LAKES, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND BY LATE THU NGT. DAY BEGINS
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS. BEST FORCING
REMAINS OFF TO THE NORTH, SO HAVE CAPPED POP AT NO HIGHER THAN 30%
FOR NOW. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH THU NGT AS SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA. FOR HIGHS, SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW
FOR A MODEST WARMUP WITH MAXIMA IN THE U30S ERN SHORE/NRN
NECK...LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND AND U40S FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NW AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK
MOVING FRONTAL WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT
TO SEA MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT
THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES AS OF 06Z (RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW AT KECG)...WITH EITHER LOW MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT.
SOME VARIABILITY IS ANTICIPATED IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 12Z...WILL
AVG IFR WITH CIGS JUST BELOW 1000 FT AND VSBYS OF 2-3SM. COULD
BRIEFLY SEE LIFR CONDS IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS (PROBABLY MOST
LIKELY AT KORF). GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO AROUND 25 KT AT
ORF/KECG...AROUND 20 KT ELSEWHERE.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 12Z...ALTHOUGH WILL HANG
ONTO IFR CIGS AT MOST SITES THROUGH AROUND 15Z...WITH CIGS LIFTING
TO 1500-2500 FT THEREAFTER. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE NW AND REMAIN
GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. A
WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT/EARLY
FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG COASTAL LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES EAST OF ATLANTIC CITY
NJ AS OF 4 AM. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS VERY
TIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE ADDED CAA AND
DIURNAL EFFECTS ARE CAUSING N-NW WINDS TO EXPERIENCE A SURGE IN
SPEEDS BUT STILL WITHIN GALES FOR NRN OCEAN AND WITHIN STRONG SCA
FOR BAY/RIVERS/SOUND. SEAS HAVE QUICKLY RISEN TO 8-12FT IN SRN
COASTAL WATERS AS WELL. THE SURGE IN WINDS/SEAS IS EXPECTED TO BE
BRIEF...LASTING THROUGH SUNRISE...AFTER WHICH WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS AFTN TO 5-7FT SRN
WATERS/6-10FT NRN WATERS...AS THE LOW TRACKS NE AND AWAY FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST AND MODEL
GUIDANCE...GALES MAY BE REPLACED BY STRONG SCA FLAGS PRIOR TO 7 PM
THIS EVENING. WILL MONITOR TRENDS IN WINDS/SEAS AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. FOR TONIGHT...THE STRONG LOW TRACKS TWD THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...KEEPING A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. PRESSURE RISES AROUND 3MB
THIS EVENING (OCCURRING BTWN 21Z TODAY AND 06Z TONIGHT)...INDICATE
THAT ANOTHER NWLLY SURGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 30KT IS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING FOR THE BAY/OCEAN AS CAA AND WRAPAROUND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TRAVERSE THE WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON WED.
CONTINUED CAA WILL KEEP NW WINDS ELEVATED WITHIN SCA THRESHOLDS OVER
ALL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL SHOW A MARKED
DECREASE TO 4-5FT BY WED AFTN. ONLY CHANGE MADE TO SCA FLAGS WAS TO
EXTEND CHES BAY AND SRN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 10 PM WED EVENING
BEFORE WINDS/SEAS FALL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. SEAS CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE THRU WED EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE WATERS. A
CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION ON THU WILL SHUNT THE HIGH
OVER THE SE COAST. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER IS
THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
POTENTIALLY SOLID SCA CONDITIONS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OCEAN CITY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...FELL
SHORT OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS AS WINDS SHIFTED FASTER THAN
EXPECTED FROM ONSHORE E/NE MON AFTN TO OFFSHORE N/NW. DEPARTURES
HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. MDL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPCOMING TIDE THIS AFTN REACHING ABOVE 4 FT
MLLW...BUT THIS APPEARS WELL OVERDONE GIVEN THE N/NW WIND
DIRECTION AND CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. NAM- BASED CBOFS GUIDANCE IS
RUNNING ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER THAN REALITY...BUT IN TERMS OF TREND
SHOWS THE TIDE THIS AFTN TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE HIGH TIDE
EARLIER THIS MORNING THAT ONLY PEAKED AT 3.7 FT MLLW. WILL
MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH MID MORNING...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
COASTAL FLOOD ADVSIORY AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE
OFFSHORE WIND FLOW.

ACRS THE LOWER BAY DEPARTURES ARE ALSO RUNNING AS HIGH AS 1.5 TO 2
FEET...BUT THIS STILL LEADS TO TIDES FALLING AT LEAST 0.5 FT SHY
OF MINOR FLOODING THIS AFTN. DEPARTURES WILL FALL TONIGHT INTO WED
WITH NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ081-
     089>091-093>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271000
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
500 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS
NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING NARROW BAND OF PCPN DROPPING
SOUTH FROM CENTRAL PA SOUTH INTO EASTERN/CENTRAL VA. VSBY AVGG
2-4SM IN SN, AND WE`VE RECEIVED SCATTERED REPORTS OF ~1" ALONG THE
NORTHERN NECK INTO THE PENINSULA, WITH TRAFFIC CAMS SHOWING AT
LEAST A COATING INTO THE TIDEWATER AREA (CONFIRMED BY LOCAL
COOPERATIVE OBSERVER). WE WILL BE MAINTAINING WINTER HEADLINES FOR
A LITTLE LONGER, WITH THIS BAND OF SNSH WELL HANDLED BY THE HRRR
EARLY THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY LOCALES IN NORFOLK OR
RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE ANY MORE THAN AN INCH...BUT WITH
THE HEADLINE ALREADY IN PLACE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO CAUSE
SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...DON`T FEEL DROPPING THE
HEADLINES IS PRUDENT ATTM. WL REVISIT HEADLINES AT 7AM UPDATE. DO
EXPECT DAY CREW WILL BE ABLE TO CLEAR HEADLINES SHORTLY AFTER 14Z
IF NOT SOONER.

HAVE BUMPED POPS UP IN TO CATEGORICAL RANGE FOR COASTAL NE NC, AND
GRADUALLY TAPERED THEM OFF ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE BY MID-LATE
MORNING. DROPPED POPS INTO NO HIGHER THAN 20% BUT HAVE KEPT
FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST FOR FAR WESTERN ZONES, AS ACCUMS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

INTENSIFYING SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE INTO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL POPS DROP OFF BY EARLY AFTN, WITH STRONG CAA
BRINGING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS (25-30MPH GUSTS ALONG THE
COAST/ERN SHORE), AND HOLDING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S (~40
IN THE PIEDMONT) UNDER A CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW PULLS TOWARDS ATLANTIC
CANADA AS COLD SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. CLEARING
SKY AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS WILL ALLOW EARLY MORNING
LOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE THE 20S FOR MOST, W/ WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL WITH SHALLOW MIXING AND A NNE WIND. HIGHS
ONLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR
30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST.

RAIN CHCS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THU/THU NGT AS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS TO
THE GREAT LAKES, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND BY LATE THU NGT. DAY BEGINS
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS. BEST FORCING
REMAINS OFF TO THE NORTH, SO HAVE CAPPED POP AT NO HIGHER THAN 30%
FOR NOW. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH THU NGT AS SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA. FOR HIGHS, SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW
FOR A MODEST WARMUP WITH MAXIMA IN THE U30S ERN SHORE/NRN
NECK...LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND AND U40S FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NW AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK
MOVING FRONTAL WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT
TO SEA MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT
THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES AS OF 06Z (RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW AT KECG)...WITH EITHER LOW MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT.
SOME VARIABILITY IS ANTICIPATED IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 12Z...WILL
AVG IFR WITH CIGS JUST BELOW 1000 FT AND VSBYS OF 2-3SM. COULD
BRIEFLY SEE LIFR CONDS IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS (PROBABLY MOST
LIKELY AT KORF). GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO AROUND 25 KT AT
ORF/KECG...AROUND 20 KT ELSEWHERE.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 12Z...ALTHOUGH WILL HANG
ONTO IFR CIGS AT MOST SITES THROUGH AROUND 15Z...WITH CIGS LIFTING
TO 1500-2500 FT THEREAFTER. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE NW AND REMAIN
GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. A
WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT/EARLY
FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG COASTAL LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES EAST OF ATLANTIC CITY
NJ AS OF 4 AM. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS VERY
TIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE ADDED CAA AND
DIURNAL EFFECTS ARE CAUSING N-NW WINDS TO EXPERIENCE A SURGE IN
SPEEDS BUT STILL WITHIN GALES FOR NRN OCEAN AND WITHIN STRONG SCA
FOR BAY/RIVERS/SOUND. SEAS HAVE QUICKLY RISEN TO 8-12FT IN SRN
COASTAL WATERS AS WELL. THE SURGE IN WINDS/SEAS IS EXPECTED TO BE
BRIEF...LASTING THROUGH SUNRISE...AFTER WHICH WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS AFTN TO 5-7FT SRN
WATERS/6-10FT NRN WATERS...AS THE LOW TRACKS NE AND AWAY FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST AND MODEL
GUIDANCE...GALES MAY BE REPLACED BY STRONG SCA FLAGS PRIOR TO 7 PM
THIS EVENING. WILL MONITOR TRENDS IN WINDS/SEAS AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. FOR TONIGHT...THE STRONG LOW TRACKS TWD THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...KEEPING A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. PRESSURE RISES AROUND 3MB
THIS EVENING (OCCURRING BTWN 21Z TODAY AND 06Z TONIGHT)...INDICATE
THAT ANOTHER NWLLY SURGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 30KT IS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING FOR THE BAY/OCEAN AS CAA AND WRAPAROUND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TRAVERSE THE WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON WED.
CONTINUED CAA WILL KEEP NW WINDS ELEVATED WITHIN SCA THRESHOLDS OVER
ALL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL SHOW A MARKED
DECREASE TO 4-5FT BY WED AFTN. ONLY CHANGE MADE TO SCA FLAGS WAS TO
EXTEND CHES BAY AND SRN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 10 PM WED EVENING
BEFORE WINDS/SEAS FALL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. SEAS CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE THRU WED EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE WATERS. A
CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION ON THU WILL SHUNT THE HIGH
OVER THE SE COAST. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER IS
THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
POTENTIALLY SOLID SCA CONDITIONS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OCEAN CITY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...FELL
SHORT OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS AS WINDS SHIFTED FASTER THAN
EXPECTED FROM ONSHORE E/NE MON AFTN TO OFFSHORE N/NW. DEPARTURES
HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. MDL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPCOMING TIDE THIS AFTN REACHING ABOVE 4 FT
MLLW...BUT THIS APPEARS WELL OVERDONE GIVEN THE N/NW WIND
DIRECTION AND CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. NAM- BASED CBOFS GUIDANCE IS
RUNNING ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER THAN REALITY...BUT IN TERMS OF TREND
SHOWS THE TIDE THIS AFTN TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE HIGH TIDE
EARLIER THIS MORNING THAT ONLY PEAKED AT 3.7 FT MLLW. WILL
MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH MID MORNING...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
COASTAL FLOOD ADVSIORY AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE
OFFSHORE WIND FLOW.

ACRS THE LOWER BAY DEPARTURES ARE ALSO RUNNING AS HIGH AS 1.5 TO 2
FEET...BUT THIS STILL LEADS TO TIDES FALLING AT LEAST 0.5 FT SHY
OF MINOR FLOODING THIS AFTN. DEPARTURES WILL FALL TONIGHT INTO WED
WITH NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ081-
     089>091-093>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271000
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
500 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS
NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING NARROW BAND OF PCPN DROPPING
SOUTH FROM CENTRAL PA SOUTH INTO EASTERN/CENTRAL VA. VSBY AVGG
2-4SM IN SN, AND WE`VE RECEIVED SCATTERED REPORTS OF ~1" ALONG THE
NORTHERN NECK INTO THE PENINSULA, WITH TRAFFIC CAMS SHOWING AT
LEAST A COATING INTO THE TIDEWATER AREA (CONFIRMED BY LOCAL
COOPERATIVE OBSERVER). WE WILL BE MAINTAINING WINTER HEADLINES FOR
A LITTLE LONGER, WITH THIS BAND OF SNSH WELL HANDLED BY THE HRRR
EARLY THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY LOCALES IN NORFOLK OR
RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE ANY MORE THAN AN INCH...BUT WITH
THE HEADLINE ALREADY IN PLACE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO CAUSE
SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...DON`T FEEL DROPPING THE
HEADLINES IS PRUDENT ATTM. WL REVISIT HEADLINES AT 7AM UPDATE. DO
EXPECT DAY CREW WILL BE ABLE TO CLEAR HEADLINES SHORTLY AFTER 14Z
IF NOT SOONER.

HAVE BUMPED POPS UP IN TO CATEGORICAL RANGE FOR COASTAL NE NC, AND
GRADUALLY TAPERED THEM OFF ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE BY MID-LATE
MORNING. DROPPED POPS INTO NO HIGHER THAN 20% BUT HAVE KEPT
FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST FOR FAR WESTERN ZONES, AS ACCUMS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

INTENSIFYING SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE INTO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL POPS DROP OFF BY EARLY AFTN, WITH STRONG CAA
BRINGING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS (25-30MPH GUSTS ALONG THE
COAST/ERN SHORE), AND HOLDING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S (~40
IN THE PIEDMONT) UNDER A CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW PULLS TOWARDS ATLANTIC
CANADA AS COLD SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. CLEARING
SKY AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS WILL ALLOW EARLY MORNING
LOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE THE 20S FOR MOST, W/ WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL WITH SHALLOW MIXING AND A NNE WIND. HIGHS
ONLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR
30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST.

RAIN CHCS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THU/THU NGT AS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS TO
THE GREAT LAKES, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND BY LATE THU NGT. DAY BEGINS
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS. BEST FORCING
REMAINS OFF TO THE NORTH, SO HAVE CAPPED POP AT NO HIGHER THAN 30%
FOR NOW. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH THU NGT AS SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA. FOR HIGHS, SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW
FOR A MODEST WARMUP WITH MAXIMA IN THE U30S ERN SHORE/NRN
NECK...LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND AND U40S FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NW AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK
MOVING FRONTAL WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT
TO SEA MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT
THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES AS OF 06Z (RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW AT KECG)...WITH EITHER LOW MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT.
SOME VARIABILITY IS ANTICIPATED IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 12Z...WILL
AVG IFR WITH CIGS JUST BELOW 1000 FT AND VSBYS OF 2-3SM. COULD
BRIEFLY SEE LIFR CONDS IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS (PROBABLY MOST
LIKELY AT KORF). GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO AROUND 25 KT AT
ORF/KECG...AROUND 20 KT ELSEWHERE.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 12Z...ALTHOUGH WILL HANG
ONTO IFR CIGS AT MOST SITES THROUGH AROUND 15Z...WITH CIGS LIFTING
TO 1500-2500 FT THEREAFTER. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE NW AND REMAIN
GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. A
WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT/EARLY
FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG COASTAL LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES EAST OF ATLANTIC CITY
NJ AS OF 4 AM. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS VERY
TIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE ADDED CAA AND
DIURNAL EFFECTS ARE CAUSING N-NW WINDS TO EXPERIENCE A SURGE IN
SPEEDS BUT STILL WITHIN GALES FOR NRN OCEAN AND WITHIN STRONG SCA
FOR BAY/RIVERS/SOUND. SEAS HAVE QUICKLY RISEN TO 8-12FT IN SRN
COASTAL WATERS AS WELL. THE SURGE IN WINDS/SEAS IS EXPECTED TO BE
BRIEF...LASTING THROUGH SUNRISE...AFTER WHICH WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS AFTN TO 5-7FT SRN
WATERS/6-10FT NRN WATERS...AS THE LOW TRACKS NE AND AWAY FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST AND MODEL
GUIDANCE...GALES MAY BE REPLACED BY STRONG SCA FLAGS PRIOR TO 7 PM
THIS EVENING. WILL MONITOR TRENDS IN WINDS/SEAS AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. FOR TONIGHT...THE STRONG LOW TRACKS TWD THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...KEEPING A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. PRESSURE RISES AROUND 3MB
THIS EVENING (OCCURRING BTWN 21Z TODAY AND 06Z TONIGHT)...INDICATE
THAT ANOTHER NWLLY SURGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 30KT IS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING FOR THE BAY/OCEAN AS CAA AND WRAPAROUND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TRAVERSE THE WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON WED.
CONTINUED CAA WILL KEEP NW WINDS ELEVATED WITHIN SCA THRESHOLDS OVER
ALL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL SHOW A MARKED
DECREASE TO 4-5FT BY WED AFTN. ONLY CHANGE MADE TO SCA FLAGS WAS TO
EXTEND CHES BAY AND SRN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 10 PM WED EVENING
BEFORE WINDS/SEAS FALL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. SEAS CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE THRU WED EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE WATERS. A
CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION ON THU WILL SHUNT THE HIGH
OVER THE SE COAST. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER IS
THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
POTENTIALLY SOLID SCA CONDITIONS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OCEAN CITY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...FELL
SHORT OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS AS WINDS SHIFTED FASTER THAN
EXPECTED FROM ONSHORE E/NE MON AFTN TO OFFSHORE N/NW. DEPARTURES
HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. MDL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPCOMING TIDE THIS AFTN REACHING ABOVE 4 FT
MLLW...BUT THIS APPEARS WELL OVERDONE GIVEN THE N/NW WIND
DIRECTION AND CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. NAM- BASED CBOFS GUIDANCE IS
RUNNING ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER THAN REALITY...BUT IN TERMS OF TREND
SHOWS THE TIDE THIS AFTN TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE HIGH TIDE
EARLIER THIS MORNING THAT ONLY PEAKED AT 3.7 FT MLLW. WILL
MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH MID MORNING...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
COASTAL FLOOD ADVSIORY AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE
OFFSHORE WIND FLOW.

ACRS THE LOWER BAY DEPARTURES ARE ALSO RUNNING AS HIGH AS 1.5 TO 2
FEET...BUT THIS STILL LEADS TO TIDES FALLING AT LEAST 0.5 FT SHY
OF MINOR FLOODING THIS AFTN. DEPARTURES WILL FALL TONIGHT INTO WED
WITH NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ081-
     089>091-093>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271000
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
500 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS
NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING NARROW BAND OF PCPN DROPPING
SOUTH FROM CENTRAL PA SOUTH INTO EASTERN/CENTRAL VA. VSBY AVGG
2-4SM IN SN, AND WE`VE RECEIVED SCATTERED REPORTS OF ~1" ALONG THE
NORTHERN NECK INTO THE PENINSULA, WITH TRAFFIC CAMS SHOWING AT
LEAST A COATING INTO THE TIDEWATER AREA (CONFIRMED BY LOCAL
COOPERATIVE OBSERVER). WE WILL BE MAINTAINING WINTER HEADLINES FOR
A LITTLE LONGER, WITH THIS BAND OF SNSH WELL HANDLED BY THE HRRR
EARLY THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY LOCALES IN NORFOLK OR
RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE ANY MORE THAN AN INCH...BUT WITH
THE HEADLINE ALREADY IN PLACE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO CAUSE
SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...DON`T FEEL DROPPING THE
HEADLINES IS PRUDENT ATTM. WL REVISIT HEADLINES AT 7AM UPDATE. DO
EXPECT DAY CREW WILL BE ABLE TO CLEAR HEADLINES SHORTLY AFTER 14Z
IF NOT SOONER.

HAVE BUMPED POPS UP IN TO CATEGORICAL RANGE FOR COASTAL NE NC, AND
GRADUALLY TAPERED THEM OFF ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE BY MID-LATE
MORNING. DROPPED POPS INTO NO HIGHER THAN 20% BUT HAVE KEPT
FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST FOR FAR WESTERN ZONES, AS ACCUMS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

INTENSIFYING SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE INTO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL POPS DROP OFF BY EARLY AFTN, WITH STRONG CAA
BRINGING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS (25-30MPH GUSTS ALONG THE
COAST/ERN SHORE), AND HOLDING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S (~40
IN THE PIEDMONT) UNDER A CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW PULLS TOWARDS ATLANTIC
CANADA AS COLD SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. CLEARING
SKY AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS WILL ALLOW EARLY MORNING
LOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE THE 20S FOR MOST, W/ WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL WITH SHALLOW MIXING AND A NNE WIND. HIGHS
ONLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR
30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST.

RAIN CHCS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THU/THU NGT AS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS TO
THE GREAT LAKES, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND BY LATE THU NGT. DAY BEGINS
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS. BEST FORCING
REMAINS OFF TO THE NORTH, SO HAVE CAPPED POP AT NO HIGHER THAN 30%
FOR NOW. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH THU NGT AS SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA. FOR HIGHS, SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW
FOR A MODEST WARMUP WITH MAXIMA IN THE U30S ERN SHORE/NRN
NECK...LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND AND U40S FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NW AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK
MOVING FRONTAL WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT
TO SEA MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT
THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES AS OF 06Z (RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW AT KECG)...WITH EITHER LOW MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT.
SOME VARIABILITY IS ANTICIPATED IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 12Z...WILL
AVG IFR WITH CIGS JUST BELOW 1000 FT AND VSBYS OF 2-3SM. COULD
BRIEFLY SEE LIFR CONDS IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS (PROBABLY MOST
LIKELY AT KORF). GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO AROUND 25 KT AT
ORF/KECG...AROUND 20 KT ELSEWHERE.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 12Z...ALTHOUGH WILL HANG
ONTO IFR CIGS AT MOST SITES THROUGH AROUND 15Z...WITH CIGS LIFTING
TO 1500-2500 FT THEREAFTER. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE NW AND REMAIN
GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. A
WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT/EARLY
FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG COASTAL LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES EAST OF ATLANTIC CITY
NJ AS OF 4 AM. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS VERY
TIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE ADDED CAA AND
DIURNAL EFFECTS ARE CAUSING N-NW WINDS TO EXPERIENCE A SURGE IN
SPEEDS BUT STILL WITHIN GALES FOR NRN OCEAN AND WITHIN STRONG SCA
FOR BAY/RIVERS/SOUND. SEAS HAVE QUICKLY RISEN TO 8-12FT IN SRN
COASTAL WATERS AS WELL. THE SURGE IN WINDS/SEAS IS EXPECTED TO BE
BRIEF...LASTING THROUGH SUNRISE...AFTER WHICH WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS AFTN TO 5-7FT SRN
WATERS/6-10FT NRN WATERS...AS THE LOW TRACKS NE AND AWAY FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST AND MODEL
GUIDANCE...GALES MAY BE REPLACED BY STRONG SCA FLAGS PRIOR TO 7 PM
THIS EVENING. WILL MONITOR TRENDS IN WINDS/SEAS AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. FOR TONIGHT...THE STRONG LOW TRACKS TWD THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...KEEPING A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. PRESSURE RISES AROUND 3MB
THIS EVENING (OCCURRING BTWN 21Z TODAY AND 06Z TONIGHT)...INDICATE
THAT ANOTHER NWLLY SURGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 30KT IS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING FOR THE BAY/OCEAN AS CAA AND WRAPAROUND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TRAVERSE THE WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON WED.
CONTINUED CAA WILL KEEP NW WINDS ELEVATED WITHIN SCA THRESHOLDS OVER
ALL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL SHOW A MARKED
DECREASE TO 4-5FT BY WED AFTN. ONLY CHANGE MADE TO SCA FLAGS WAS TO
EXTEND CHES BAY AND SRN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 10 PM WED EVENING
BEFORE WINDS/SEAS FALL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. SEAS CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE THRU WED EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE WATERS. A
CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION ON THU WILL SHUNT THE HIGH
OVER THE SE COAST. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER IS
THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
POTENTIALLY SOLID SCA CONDITIONS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OCEAN CITY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...FELL
SHORT OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS AS WINDS SHIFTED FASTER THAN
EXPECTED FROM ONSHORE E/NE MON AFTN TO OFFSHORE N/NW. DEPARTURES
HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. MDL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPCOMING TIDE THIS AFTN REACHING ABOVE 4 FT
MLLW...BUT THIS APPEARS WELL OVERDONE GIVEN THE N/NW WIND
DIRECTION AND CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. NAM- BASED CBOFS GUIDANCE IS
RUNNING ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER THAN REALITY...BUT IN TERMS OF TREND
SHOWS THE TIDE THIS AFTN TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE HIGH TIDE
EARLIER THIS MORNING THAT ONLY PEAKED AT 3.7 FT MLLW. WILL
MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH MID MORNING...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
COASTAL FLOOD ADVSIORY AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE
OFFSHORE WIND FLOW.

ACRS THE LOWER BAY DEPARTURES ARE ALSO RUNNING AS HIGH AS 1.5 TO 2
FEET...BUT THIS STILL LEADS TO TIDES FALLING AT LEAST 0.5 FT SHY
OF MINOR FLOODING THIS AFTN. DEPARTURES WILL FALL TONIGHT INTO WED
WITH NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ081-
     089>091-093>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271000
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
500 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS
NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING NARROW BAND OF PCPN DROPPING
SOUTH FROM CENTRAL PA SOUTH INTO EASTERN/CENTRAL VA. VSBY AVGG
2-4SM IN SN, AND WE`VE RECEIVED SCATTERED REPORTS OF ~1" ALONG THE
NORTHERN NECK INTO THE PENINSULA, WITH TRAFFIC CAMS SHOWING AT
LEAST A COATING INTO THE TIDEWATER AREA (CONFIRMED BY LOCAL
COOPERATIVE OBSERVER). WE WILL BE MAINTAINING WINTER HEADLINES FOR
A LITTLE LONGER, WITH THIS BAND OF SNSH WELL HANDLED BY THE HRRR
EARLY THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY LOCALES IN NORFOLK OR
RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE ANY MORE THAN AN INCH...BUT WITH
THE HEADLINE ALREADY IN PLACE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO CAUSE
SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...DON`T FEEL DROPPING THE
HEADLINES IS PRUDENT ATTM. WL REVISIT HEADLINES AT 7AM UPDATE. DO
EXPECT DAY CREW WILL BE ABLE TO CLEAR HEADLINES SHORTLY AFTER 14Z
IF NOT SOONER.

HAVE BUMPED POPS UP IN TO CATEGORICAL RANGE FOR COASTAL NE NC, AND
GRADUALLY TAPERED THEM OFF ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE BY MID-LATE
MORNING. DROPPED POPS INTO NO HIGHER THAN 20% BUT HAVE KEPT
FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST FOR FAR WESTERN ZONES, AS ACCUMS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

INTENSIFYING SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE INTO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL POPS DROP OFF BY EARLY AFTN, WITH STRONG CAA
BRINGING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS (25-30MPH GUSTS ALONG THE
COAST/ERN SHORE), AND HOLDING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S (~40
IN THE PIEDMONT) UNDER A CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW PULLS TOWARDS ATLANTIC
CANADA AS COLD SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. CLEARING
SKY AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS WILL ALLOW EARLY MORNING
LOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE THE 20S FOR MOST, W/ WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL WITH SHALLOW MIXING AND A NNE WIND. HIGHS
ONLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR
30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST.

RAIN CHCS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THU/THU NGT AS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS TO
THE GREAT LAKES, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND BY LATE THU NGT. DAY BEGINS
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS. BEST FORCING
REMAINS OFF TO THE NORTH, SO HAVE CAPPED POP AT NO HIGHER THAN 30%
FOR NOW. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH THU NGT AS SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA. FOR HIGHS, SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW
FOR A MODEST WARMUP WITH MAXIMA IN THE U30S ERN SHORE/NRN
NECK...LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND AND U40S FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NW AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK
MOVING FRONTAL WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT
TO SEA MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT
THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES AS OF 06Z (RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW AT KECG)...WITH EITHER LOW MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT.
SOME VARIABILITY IS ANTICIPATED IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 12Z...WILL
AVG IFR WITH CIGS JUST BELOW 1000 FT AND VSBYS OF 2-3SM. COULD
BRIEFLY SEE LIFR CONDS IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS (PROBABLY MOST
LIKELY AT KORF). GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO AROUND 25 KT AT
ORF/KECG...AROUND 20 KT ELSEWHERE.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 12Z...ALTHOUGH WILL HANG
ONTO IFR CIGS AT MOST SITES THROUGH AROUND 15Z...WITH CIGS LIFTING
TO 1500-2500 FT THEREAFTER. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE NW AND REMAIN
GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. A
WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT/EARLY
FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG COASTAL LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES EAST OF ATLANTIC CITY
NJ AS OF 4 AM. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS VERY
TIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE ADDED CAA AND
DIURNAL EFFECTS ARE CAUSING N-NW WINDS TO EXPERIENCE A SURGE IN
SPEEDS BUT STILL WITHIN GALES FOR NRN OCEAN AND WITHIN STRONG SCA
FOR BAY/RIVERS/SOUND. SEAS HAVE QUICKLY RISEN TO 8-12FT IN SRN
COASTAL WATERS AS WELL. THE SURGE IN WINDS/SEAS IS EXPECTED TO BE
BRIEF...LASTING THROUGH SUNRISE...AFTER WHICH WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS AFTN TO 5-7FT SRN
WATERS/6-10FT NRN WATERS...AS THE LOW TRACKS NE AND AWAY FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST AND MODEL
GUIDANCE...GALES MAY BE REPLACED BY STRONG SCA FLAGS PRIOR TO 7 PM
THIS EVENING. WILL MONITOR TRENDS IN WINDS/SEAS AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. FOR TONIGHT...THE STRONG LOW TRACKS TWD THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...KEEPING A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. PRESSURE RISES AROUND 3MB
THIS EVENING (OCCURRING BTWN 21Z TODAY AND 06Z TONIGHT)...INDICATE
THAT ANOTHER NWLLY SURGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 30KT IS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING FOR THE BAY/OCEAN AS CAA AND WRAPAROUND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TRAVERSE THE WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON WED.
CONTINUED CAA WILL KEEP NW WINDS ELEVATED WITHIN SCA THRESHOLDS OVER
ALL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL SHOW A MARKED
DECREASE TO 4-5FT BY WED AFTN. ONLY CHANGE MADE TO SCA FLAGS WAS TO
EXTEND CHES BAY AND SRN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 10 PM WED EVENING
BEFORE WINDS/SEAS FALL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. SEAS CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE THRU WED EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE WATERS. A
CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION ON THU WILL SHUNT THE HIGH
OVER THE SE COAST. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER IS
THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
POTENTIALLY SOLID SCA CONDITIONS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OCEAN CITY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...FELL
SHORT OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS AS WINDS SHIFTED FASTER THAN
EXPECTED FROM ONSHORE E/NE MON AFTN TO OFFSHORE N/NW. DEPARTURES
HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. MDL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPCOMING TIDE THIS AFTN REACHING ABOVE 4 FT
MLLW...BUT THIS APPEARS WELL OVERDONE GIVEN THE N/NW WIND
DIRECTION AND CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. NAM- BASED CBOFS GUIDANCE IS
RUNNING ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER THAN REALITY...BUT IN TERMS OF TREND
SHOWS THE TIDE THIS AFTN TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE HIGH TIDE
EARLIER THIS MORNING THAT ONLY PEAKED AT 3.7 FT MLLW. WILL
MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH MID MORNING...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
COASTAL FLOOD ADVSIORY AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE
OFFSHORE WIND FLOW.

ACRS THE LOWER BAY DEPARTURES ARE ALSO RUNNING AS HIGH AS 1.5 TO 2
FEET...BUT THIS STILL LEADS TO TIDES FALLING AT LEAST 0.5 FT SHY
OF MINOR FLOODING THIS AFTN. DEPARTURES WILL FALL TONIGHT INTO WED
WITH NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ081-
     089>091-093>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271000
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
500 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS
NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING NARROW BAND OF PCPN DROPPING
SOUTH FROM CENTRAL PA SOUTH INTO EASTERN/CENTRAL VA. VSBY AVGG
2-4SM IN SN, AND WE`VE RECEIVED SCATTERED REPORTS OF ~1" ALONG THE
NORTHERN NECK INTO THE PENINSULA, WITH TRAFFIC CAMS SHOWING AT
LEAST A COATING INTO THE TIDEWATER AREA (CONFIRMED BY LOCAL
COOPERATIVE OBSERVER). WE WILL BE MAINTAINING WINTER HEADLINES FOR
A LITTLE LONGER, WITH THIS BAND OF SNSH WELL HANDLED BY THE HRRR
EARLY THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY LOCALES IN NORFOLK OR
RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE ANY MORE THAN AN INCH...BUT WITH
THE HEADLINE ALREADY IN PLACE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO CAUSE
SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...DON`T FEEL DROPPING THE
HEADLINES IS PRUDENT ATTM. WL REVISIT HEADLINES AT 7AM UPDATE. DO
EXPECT DAY CREW WILL BE ABLE TO CLEAR HEADLINES SHORTLY AFTER 14Z
IF NOT SOONER.

HAVE BUMPED POPS UP IN TO CATEGORICAL RANGE FOR COASTAL NE NC, AND
GRADUALLY TAPERED THEM OFF ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE BY MID-LATE
MORNING. DROPPED POPS INTO NO HIGHER THAN 20% BUT HAVE KEPT
FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST FOR FAR WESTERN ZONES, AS ACCUMS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

INTENSIFYING SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE INTO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL POPS DROP OFF BY EARLY AFTN, WITH STRONG CAA
BRINGING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS (25-30MPH GUSTS ALONG THE
COAST/ERN SHORE), AND HOLDING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S (~40
IN THE PIEDMONT) UNDER A CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW PULLS TOWARDS ATLANTIC
CANADA AS COLD SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. CLEARING
SKY AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS WILL ALLOW EARLY MORNING
LOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE THE 20S FOR MOST, W/ WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL WITH SHALLOW MIXING AND A NNE WIND. HIGHS
ONLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR
30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST.

RAIN CHCS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THU/THU NGT AS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS TO
THE GREAT LAKES, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND BY LATE THU NGT. DAY BEGINS
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS. BEST FORCING
REMAINS OFF TO THE NORTH, SO HAVE CAPPED POP AT NO HIGHER THAN 30%
FOR NOW. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH THU NGT AS SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA. FOR HIGHS, SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW
FOR A MODEST WARMUP WITH MAXIMA IN THE U30S ERN SHORE/NRN
NECK...LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND AND U40S FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NW AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK
MOVING FRONTAL WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT
TO SEA MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT
THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES AS OF 06Z (RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW AT KECG)...WITH EITHER LOW MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT.
SOME VARIABILITY IS ANTICIPATED IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 12Z...WILL
AVG IFR WITH CIGS JUST BELOW 1000 FT AND VSBYS OF 2-3SM. COULD
BRIEFLY SEE LIFR CONDS IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS (PROBABLY MOST
LIKELY AT KORF). GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO AROUND 25 KT AT
ORF/KECG...AROUND 20 KT ELSEWHERE.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 12Z...ALTHOUGH WILL HANG
ONTO IFR CIGS AT MOST SITES THROUGH AROUND 15Z...WITH CIGS LIFTING
TO 1500-2500 FT THEREAFTER. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE NW AND REMAIN
GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. A
WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT/EARLY
FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG COASTAL LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES EAST OF ATLANTIC CITY
NJ AS OF 4 AM. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS VERY
TIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE ADDED CAA AND
DIURNAL EFFECTS ARE CAUSING N-NW WINDS TO EXPERIENCE A SURGE IN
SPEEDS BUT STILL WITHIN GALES FOR NRN OCEAN AND WITHIN STRONG SCA
FOR BAY/RIVERS/SOUND. SEAS HAVE QUICKLY RISEN TO 8-12FT IN SRN
COASTAL WATERS AS WELL. THE SURGE IN WINDS/SEAS IS EXPECTED TO BE
BRIEF...LASTING THROUGH SUNRISE...AFTER WHICH WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS AFTN TO 5-7FT SRN
WATERS/6-10FT NRN WATERS...AS THE LOW TRACKS NE AND AWAY FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST AND MODEL
GUIDANCE...GALES MAY BE REPLACED BY STRONG SCA FLAGS PRIOR TO 7 PM
THIS EVENING. WILL MONITOR TRENDS IN WINDS/SEAS AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. FOR TONIGHT...THE STRONG LOW TRACKS TWD THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...KEEPING A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. PRESSURE RISES AROUND 3MB
THIS EVENING (OCCURRING BTWN 21Z TODAY AND 06Z TONIGHT)...INDICATE
THAT ANOTHER NWLLY SURGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 30KT IS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING FOR THE BAY/OCEAN AS CAA AND WRAPAROUND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TRAVERSE THE WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON WED.
CONTINUED CAA WILL KEEP NW WINDS ELEVATED WITHIN SCA THRESHOLDS OVER
ALL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL SHOW A MARKED
DECREASE TO 4-5FT BY WED AFTN. ONLY CHANGE MADE TO SCA FLAGS WAS TO
EXTEND CHES BAY AND SRN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 10 PM WED EVENING
BEFORE WINDS/SEAS FALL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. SEAS CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE THRU WED EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE WATERS. A
CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION ON THU WILL SHUNT THE HIGH
OVER THE SE COAST. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER IS
THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
POTENTIALLY SOLID SCA CONDITIONS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OCEAN CITY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...FELL
SHORT OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS AS WINDS SHIFTED FASTER THAN
EXPECTED FROM ONSHORE E/NE MON AFTN TO OFFSHORE N/NW. DEPARTURES
HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. MDL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPCOMING TIDE THIS AFTN REACHING ABOVE 4 FT
MLLW...BUT THIS APPEARS WELL OVERDONE GIVEN THE N/NW WIND
DIRECTION AND CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. NAM- BASED CBOFS GUIDANCE IS
RUNNING ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER THAN REALITY...BUT IN TERMS OF TREND
SHOWS THE TIDE THIS AFTN TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE HIGH TIDE
EARLIER THIS MORNING THAT ONLY PEAKED AT 3.7 FT MLLW. WILL
MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH MID MORNING...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
COASTAL FLOOD ADVSIORY AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE
OFFSHORE WIND FLOW.

ACRS THE LOWER BAY DEPARTURES ARE ALSO RUNNING AS HIGH AS 1.5 TO 2
FEET...BUT THIS STILL LEADS TO TIDES FALLING AT LEAST 0.5 FT SHY
OF MINOR FLOODING THIS AFTN. DEPARTURES WILL FALL TONIGHT INTO WED
WITH NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ081-
     089>091-093>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271000
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
500 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS
NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING NARROW BAND OF PCPN DROPPING
SOUTH FROM CENTRAL PA SOUTH INTO EASTERN/CENTRAL VA. VSBY AVGG
2-4SM IN SN, AND WE`VE RECEIVED SCATTERED REPORTS OF ~1" ALONG THE
NORTHERN NECK INTO THE PENINSULA, WITH TRAFFIC CAMS SHOWING AT
LEAST A COATING INTO THE TIDEWATER AREA (CONFIRMED BY LOCAL
COOPERATIVE OBSERVER). WE WILL BE MAINTAINING WINTER HEADLINES FOR
A LITTLE LONGER, WITH THIS BAND OF SNSH WELL HANDLED BY THE HRRR
EARLY THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY LOCALES IN NORFOLK OR
RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE ANY MORE THAN AN INCH...BUT WITH
THE HEADLINE ALREADY IN PLACE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO CAUSE
SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...DON`T FEEL DROPPING THE
HEADLINES IS PRUDENT ATTM. WL REVISIT HEADLINES AT 7AM UPDATE. DO
EXPECT DAY CREW WILL BE ABLE TO CLEAR HEADLINES SHORTLY AFTER 14Z
IF NOT SOONER.

HAVE BUMPED POPS UP IN TO CATEGORICAL RANGE FOR COASTAL NE NC, AND
GRADUALLY TAPERED THEM OFF ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE BY MID-LATE
MORNING. DROPPED POPS INTO NO HIGHER THAN 20% BUT HAVE KEPT
FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST FOR FAR WESTERN ZONES, AS ACCUMS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

INTENSIFYING SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE INTO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL POPS DROP OFF BY EARLY AFTN, WITH STRONG CAA
BRINGING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS (25-30MPH GUSTS ALONG THE
COAST/ERN SHORE), AND HOLDING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S (~40
IN THE PIEDMONT) UNDER A CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW PULLS TOWARDS ATLANTIC
CANADA AS COLD SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. CLEARING
SKY AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS WILL ALLOW EARLY MORNING
LOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE THE 20S FOR MOST, W/ WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL WITH SHALLOW MIXING AND A NNE WIND. HIGHS
ONLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR
30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST.

RAIN CHCS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THU/THU NGT AS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS TO
THE GREAT LAKES, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND BY LATE THU NGT. DAY BEGINS
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS. BEST FORCING
REMAINS OFF TO THE NORTH, SO HAVE CAPPED POP AT NO HIGHER THAN 30%
FOR NOW. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH THU NGT AS SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA. FOR HIGHS, SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW
FOR A MODEST WARMUP WITH MAXIMA IN THE U30S ERN SHORE/NRN
NECK...LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND AND U40S FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NW AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK
MOVING FRONTAL WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT
TO SEA MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT
THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES AS OF 06Z (RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW AT KECG)...WITH EITHER LOW MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT.
SOME VARIABILITY IS ANTICIPATED IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 12Z...WILL
AVG IFR WITH CIGS JUST BELOW 1000 FT AND VSBYS OF 2-3SM. COULD
BRIEFLY SEE LIFR CONDS IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS (PROBABLY MOST
LIKELY AT KORF). GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO AROUND 25 KT AT
ORF/KECG...AROUND 20 KT ELSEWHERE.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 12Z...ALTHOUGH WILL HANG
ONTO IFR CIGS AT MOST SITES THROUGH AROUND 15Z...WITH CIGS LIFTING
TO 1500-2500 FT THEREAFTER. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE NW AND REMAIN
GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. A
WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT/EARLY
FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG COASTAL LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES EAST OF ATLANTIC CITY
NJ AS OF 4 AM. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS VERY
TIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE ADDED CAA AND
DIURNAL EFFECTS ARE CAUSING N-NW WINDS TO EXPERIENCE A SURGE IN
SPEEDS BUT STILL WITHIN GALES FOR NRN OCEAN AND WITHIN STRONG SCA
FOR BAY/RIVERS/SOUND. SEAS HAVE QUICKLY RISEN TO 8-12FT IN SRN
COASTAL WATERS AS WELL. THE SURGE IN WINDS/SEAS IS EXPECTED TO BE
BRIEF...LASTING THROUGH SUNRISE...AFTER WHICH WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS AFTN TO 5-7FT SRN
WATERS/6-10FT NRN WATERS...AS THE LOW TRACKS NE AND AWAY FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST AND MODEL
GUIDANCE...GALES MAY BE REPLACED BY STRONG SCA FLAGS PRIOR TO 7 PM
THIS EVENING. WILL MONITOR TRENDS IN WINDS/SEAS AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. FOR TONIGHT...THE STRONG LOW TRACKS TWD THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...KEEPING A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. PRESSURE RISES AROUND 3MB
THIS EVENING (OCCURRING BTWN 21Z TODAY AND 06Z TONIGHT)...INDICATE
THAT ANOTHER NWLLY SURGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 30KT IS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING FOR THE BAY/OCEAN AS CAA AND WRAPAROUND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TRAVERSE THE WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON WED.
CONTINUED CAA WILL KEEP NW WINDS ELEVATED WITHIN SCA THRESHOLDS OVER
ALL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL SHOW A MARKED
DECREASE TO 4-5FT BY WED AFTN. ONLY CHANGE MADE TO SCA FLAGS WAS TO
EXTEND CHES BAY AND SRN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 10 PM WED EVENING
BEFORE WINDS/SEAS FALL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. SEAS CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE THRU WED EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE WATERS. A
CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION ON THU WILL SHUNT THE HIGH
OVER THE SE COAST. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER IS
THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
POTENTIALLY SOLID SCA CONDITIONS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OCEAN CITY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...FELL
SHORT OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS AS WINDS SHIFTED FASTER THAN
EXPECTED FROM ONSHORE E/NE MON AFTN TO OFFSHORE N/NW. DEPARTURES
HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. MDL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPCOMING TIDE THIS AFTN REACHING ABOVE 4 FT
MLLW...BUT THIS APPEARS WELL OVERDONE GIVEN THE N/NW WIND
DIRECTION AND CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. NAM- BASED CBOFS GUIDANCE IS
RUNNING ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER THAN REALITY...BUT IN TERMS OF TREND
SHOWS THE TIDE THIS AFTN TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE HIGH TIDE
EARLIER THIS MORNING THAT ONLY PEAKED AT 3.7 FT MLLW. WILL
MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH MID MORNING...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
COASTAL FLOOD ADVSIORY AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE
OFFSHORE WIND FLOW.

ACRS THE LOWER BAY DEPARTURES ARE ALSO RUNNING AS HIGH AS 1.5 TO 2
FEET...BUT THIS STILL LEADS TO TIDES FALLING AT LEAST 0.5 FT SHY
OF MINOR FLOODING THIS AFTN. DEPARTURES WILL FALL TONIGHT INTO WED
WITH NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ081-
     089>091-093>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271000
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
500 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS
NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING NARROW BAND OF PCPN DROPPING
SOUTH FROM CENTRAL PA SOUTH INTO EASTERN/CENTRAL VA. VSBY AVGG
2-4SM IN SN, AND WE`VE RECEIVED SCATTERED REPORTS OF ~1" ALONG THE
NORTHERN NECK INTO THE PENINSULA, WITH TRAFFIC CAMS SHOWING AT
LEAST A COATING INTO THE TIDEWATER AREA (CONFIRMED BY LOCAL
COOPERATIVE OBSERVER). WE WILL BE MAINTAINING WINTER HEADLINES FOR
A LITTLE LONGER, WITH THIS BAND OF SNSH WELL HANDLED BY THE HRRR
EARLY THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY LOCALES IN NORFOLK OR
RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE ANY MORE THAN AN INCH...BUT WITH
THE HEADLINE ALREADY IN PLACE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO CAUSE
SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...DON`T FEEL DROPPING THE
HEADLINES IS PRUDENT ATTM. WL REVISIT HEADLINES AT 7AM UPDATE. DO
EXPECT DAY CREW WILL BE ABLE TO CLEAR HEADLINES SHORTLY AFTER 14Z
IF NOT SOONER.

HAVE BUMPED POPS UP IN TO CATEGORICAL RANGE FOR COASTAL NE NC, AND
GRADUALLY TAPERED THEM OFF ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE BY MID-LATE
MORNING. DROPPED POPS INTO NO HIGHER THAN 20% BUT HAVE KEPT
FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST FOR FAR WESTERN ZONES, AS ACCUMS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

INTENSIFYING SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE INTO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL POPS DROP OFF BY EARLY AFTN, WITH STRONG CAA
BRINGING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS (25-30MPH GUSTS ALONG THE
COAST/ERN SHORE), AND HOLDING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S (~40
IN THE PIEDMONT) UNDER A CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW PULLS TOWARDS ATLANTIC
CANADA AS COLD SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. CLEARING
SKY AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS WILL ALLOW EARLY MORNING
LOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE THE 20S FOR MOST, W/ WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL WITH SHALLOW MIXING AND A NNE WIND. HIGHS
ONLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR
30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST.

RAIN CHCS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THU/THU NGT AS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS TO
THE GREAT LAKES, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND BY LATE THU NGT. DAY BEGINS
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS. BEST FORCING
REMAINS OFF TO THE NORTH, SO HAVE CAPPED POP AT NO HIGHER THAN 30%
FOR NOW. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH THU NGT AS SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA. FOR HIGHS, SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW
FOR A MODEST WARMUP WITH MAXIMA IN THE U30S ERN SHORE/NRN
NECK...LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND AND U40S FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NW AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK
MOVING FRONTAL WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT
TO SEA MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT
THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES AS OF 06Z (RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW AT KECG)...WITH EITHER LOW MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT.
SOME VARIABILITY IS ANTICIPATED IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 12Z...WILL
AVG IFR WITH CIGS JUST BELOW 1000 FT AND VSBYS OF 2-3SM. COULD
BRIEFLY SEE LIFR CONDS IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS (PROBABLY MOST
LIKELY AT KORF). GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO AROUND 25 KT AT
ORF/KECG...AROUND 20 KT ELSEWHERE.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 12Z...ALTHOUGH WILL HANG
ONTO IFR CIGS AT MOST SITES THROUGH AROUND 15Z...WITH CIGS LIFTING
TO 1500-2500 FT THEREAFTER. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE NW AND REMAIN
GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. A
WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT/EARLY
FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG COASTAL LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES EAST OF ATLANTIC CITY
NJ AS OF 4 AM. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS VERY
TIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE ADDED CAA AND
DIURNAL EFFECTS ARE CAUSING N-NW WINDS TO EXPERIENCE A SURGE IN
SPEEDS BUT STILL WITHIN GALES FOR NRN OCEAN AND WITHIN STRONG SCA
FOR BAY/RIVERS/SOUND. SEAS HAVE QUICKLY RISEN TO 8-12FT IN SRN
COASTAL WATERS AS WELL. THE SURGE IN WINDS/SEAS IS EXPECTED TO BE
BRIEF...LASTING THROUGH SUNRISE...AFTER WHICH WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS AFTN TO 5-7FT SRN
WATERS/6-10FT NRN WATERS...AS THE LOW TRACKS NE AND AWAY FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST AND MODEL
GUIDANCE...GALES MAY BE REPLACED BY STRONG SCA FLAGS PRIOR TO 7 PM
THIS EVENING. WILL MONITOR TRENDS IN WINDS/SEAS AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. FOR TONIGHT...THE STRONG LOW TRACKS TWD THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...KEEPING A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. PRESSURE RISES AROUND 3MB
THIS EVENING (OCCURRING BTWN 21Z TODAY AND 06Z TONIGHT)...INDICATE
THAT ANOTHER NWLLY SURGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 30KT IS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING FOR THE BAY/OCEAN AS CAA AND WRAPAROUND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TRAVERSE THE WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON WED.
CONTINUED CAA WILL KEEP NW WINDS ELEVATED WITHIN SCA THRESHOLDS OVER
ALL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL SHOW A MARKED
DECREASE TO 4-5FT BY WED AFTN. ONLY CHANGE MADE TO SCA FLAGS WAS TO
EXTEND CHES BAY AND SRN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 10 PM WED EVENING
BEFORE WINDS/SEAS FALL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. SEAS CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE THRU WED EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE WATERS. A
CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION ON THU WILL SHUNT THE HIGH
OVER THE SE COAST. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER IS
THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
POTENTIALLY SOLID SCA CONDITIONS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OCEAN CITY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...FELL
SHORT OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS AS WINDS SHIFTED FASTER THAN
EXPECTED FROM ONSHORE E/NE MON AFTN TO OFFSHORE N/NW. DEPARTURES
HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. MDL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPCOMING TIDE THIS AFTN REACHING ABOVE 4 FT
MLLW...BUT THIS APPEARS WELL OVERDONE GIVEN THE N/NW WIND
DIRECTION AND CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. NAM- BASED CBOFS GUIDANCE IS
RUNNING ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER THAN REALITY...BUT IN TERMS OF TREND
SHOWS THE TIDE THIS AFTN TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE HIGH TIDE
EARLIER THIS MORNING THAT ONLY PEAKED AT 3.7 FT MLLW. WILL
MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH MID MORNING...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
COASTAL FLOOD ADVSIORY AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE
OFFSHORE WIND FLOW.

ACRS THE LOWER BAY DEPARTURES ARE ALSO RUNNING AS HIGH AS 1.5 TO 2
FEET...BUT THIS STILL LEADS TO TIDES FALLING AT LEAST 0.5 FT SHY
OF MINOR FLOODING THIS AFTN. DEPARTURES WILL FALL TONIGHT INTO WED
WITH NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ081-
     089>091-093>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270906
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
406 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY THIS MORNING AS
IT TRACKS NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING NARROW BAND OF PCPN DROPPING
SOUTH FROM CENTRAL PA SOUTH INTO EASTERN/CENTRAL VA. VSBY AVGG
2-4SM IN SN, AND WE`VE RECEIVED SCATTERED REPORTS OF ~1" ALONG THE
NORTHERN NECK INTO THE PENINSULA, WITH TRAFFIC CAMS SHOWING AT
LEAST A COATING INTO THE TIDEWATER AREA (CONFIRMED BY LOCAL
COOPERATIVE OBSERVER). WE WILL BE MAINTAINING WINTER HEADLINES FOR
A LITTLE LONGER, WITH THIS BAND OF SNSH WELL HANDLED BY THE HRRR
EARLY THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY LOCALES IN NORFOLK OR
RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE ANY MORE THAN AN INCH...BUT WITH
THE HEADLINE ALREADY IN PLACE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO CAUSE
SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...DON`T FEEL DROPPING THE
HEADLINES IS PRUDENT ATTM. WL REVISIT HEADLINES AT 7AM UPDATE. DO
EXPECT DAY CREW WILL BE ABLE TO CLEAR HEADLINES SHORTLY AFTER 14Z
IF NOT SOONER.

HAVE BUMPED POPS UP IN TO CATEGORICAL RANGE FOR COASTAL NE NC, AND
GRADUALLY TAPERED THEM OFF ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE BY MID-LATE
MORNING. DROPPED POPS INTO NO HIGHER THAN 20% BUT HAVE KEPT
FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST FOR FAR WESTERN ZONES, AS ACCUMS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

INTENSIFYING SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE INTO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL POPS DROP OFF BY EARLY AFTN, WITH STRONG CAA
BRINGING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS (25-30MPH GUSTS ALONG THE
COAST/ERN SHORE), AND HOLDING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S (~40
IN THE PIEDMONT) UNDER A CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED CSTL LO PULLS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AS SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W. EXPECT
DECREASING CLOUDS TUE NIGHT WITH NW WINDS. LO TEMPS WILL RANGE
THRU THE 20S...WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.
COOL TEMPS INTO WED AS WELL...WITH HIGHS ONLY RANGING FM THE MID
30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR 30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE.
DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH SIMILAR TEMPS AS TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE
MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST STATES SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A CHC OF RAIN IS IN
THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW PSBL FAR NRN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW AND THEN
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK MOVING FRONTAL
WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT TO SEA MONDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE
FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES AS OF 06Z (RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW AT KECG)...WITH EITHER LOW MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT.
SOME VARIABILITY IS ANTICIPATED IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 12Z...WILL
AVG IFR WITH CIGS JUST BELOW 1000 FT AND VSBYS OF 2-3SM. COULD
BRIEFLY SEE LIFR CONDS IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS (PROBABLY MOST
LIKELY AT KORF). GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO AROUND 25 KT AT
ORF/KECG...AROUND 20 KT ELSEWHERE.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 12Z...ALTHOUGH WILL HANG
ONTO IFR CIGS AT MOST SITES THROUGH AROUND 15Z...WITH CIGS LIFTING
TO 1500-2500 FT THEREAFTER. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE NW AND REMAIN
GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. A
WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT/EARLY
FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA HEADLINES FORECAST THRU WEDS.

LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED JUST OFF THE NC/VA COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THE LOW HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY...RESULTING IN AN UPTICK OF N-NE
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. BEGINNING TO SEE 20 KT GUSTS OVER THE
BAY/LOWER JAMES WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KT OVER THE NRN COASTAL
WATERS. SEAS HAVE RESPONDED...BUILDING TO 7 FT AT BUOY 44009. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP THRU LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS (GUSTS TO 30 KT) EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WATERS TONIGHT AS
THE LOW INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY AND LIFTS AWAY FROM THE COAST. LOW LEVEL
CAA ALSO INTENSIFIES. GALE CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN COASTAL WATERS...CLOSEST TO THE STRONGEST
GRADIENT WINDS AND CAA. SEAS BUILD TO 7 TO 12 FT IN THE NRN WATERS
AND 5 TO 8 FT IN THE SRN WATERS TONIGHT. AS THE LOW LIFTS
AWAY...FLOW BACKS TO THE NW...KEEPING HIGH SEAS FROM REACHING THE
BEACHES. NO HIGH SURF PLANNED ATTM. LITTLE CHANGE TUES AS STRONG NW
FLOW PERSISTS BTWN LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OH VALLEY. GALE CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE NRN COASTAL
WATERS THRU EARLY TUES EVENING...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 5-8 FT TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
FINALLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATE WEDS...ALLOWING WINDS TO
DIMINISH AOB 15 KT. SEAS SUBSIDE THRU WEDS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE WATERS THURS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT CLIPPER FRONT
SET TO CROSS THE WATERS THURS NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OCEAN CITY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...FELL
SHORT OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS AS WINDS SHIFTED FASTER THAN
EXPECTED FROM ONSHORE E/NE MON AFTN TO OFFSHORE N/NW. DEPARTURES
HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. MDL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPCOMING TIDE THIS AFTN REACHING ABOVE 4 FT
MLLW...BUT THIS APPEARS WELL OVERDONE GIVEN THE N/NW WIND
DIRECTION AND CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. NAM- BASED CBOFS GUIDANCE IS
RUNNING ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER THAN REALITY...BUT IN TERMS OF TREND
SHOWS THE TIDE THIS AFTN TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE HIGH TIDE
EARLIER THIS MORNING THAT ONLY PEAKED AT 3.7 FT MLLW. WILL
MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH MID MORNING...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
COASTAL FLOOD ADVSIORY AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE
OFFSHORE WIND FLOW.

ACRS THE LOWER BAY DEPARTURES ARE ALSO RUNNING AS HIGH AS 1.5 TO 2
FEET...BUT THIS STILL LEADS TO TIDES FALLING AT LEAST 0.5 FT SHY
OF MINOR FLOODING THIS AFTN. DEPARTURES WILL FALL TONIGHT INTO WED
WITH NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ081-
     089>091-093>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270906
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
406 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY THIS MORNING AS
IT TRACKS NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING NARROW BAND OF PCPN DROPPING
SOUTH FROM CENTRAL PA SOUTH INTO EASTERN/CENTRAL VA. VSBY AVGG
2-4SM IN SN, AND WE`VE RECEIVED SCATTERED REPORTS OF ~1" ALONG THE
NORTHERN NECK INTO THE PENINSULA, WITH TRAFFIC CAMS SHOWING AT
LEAST A COATING INTO THE TIDEWATER AREA (CONFIRMED BY LOCAL
COOPERATIVE OBSERVER). WE WILL BE MAINTAINING WINTER HEADLINES FOR
A LITTLE LONGER, WITH THIS BAND OF SNSH WELL HANDLED BY THE HRRR
EARLY THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY LOCALES IN NORFOLK OR
RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE ANY MORE THAN AN INCH...BUT WITH
THE HEADLINE ALREADY IN PLACE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO CAUSE
SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...DON`T FEEL DROPPING THE
HEADLINES IS PRUDENT ATTM. WL REVISIT HEADLINES AT 7AM UPDATE. DO
EXPECT DAY CREW WILL BE ABLE TO CLEAR HEADLINES SHORTLY AFTER 14Z
IF NOT SOONER.

HAVE BUMPED POPS UP IN TO CATEGORICAL RANGE FOR COASTAL NE NC, AND
GRADUALLY TAPERED THEM OFF ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE BY MID-LATE
MORNING. DROPPED POPS INTO NO HIGHER THAN 20% BUT HAVE KEPT
FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST FOR FAR WESTERN ZONES, AS ACCUMS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

INTENSIFYING SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE INTO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL POPS DROP OFF BY EARLY AFTN, WITH STRONG CAA
BRINGING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS (25-30MPH GUSTS ALONG THE
COAST/ERN SHORE), AND HOLDING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S (~40
IN THE PIEDMONT) UNDER A CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED CSTL LO PULLS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AS SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W. EXPECT
DECREASING CLOUDS TUE NIGHT WITH NW WINDS. LO TEMPS WILL RANGE
THRU THE 20S...WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.
COOL TEMPS INTO WED AS WELL...WITH HIGHS ONLY RANGING FM THE MID
30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR 30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE.
DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH SIMILAR TEMPS AS TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE
MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST STATES SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A CHC OF RAIN IS IN
THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW PSBL FAR NRN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW AND THEN
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK MOVING FRONTAL
WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT TO SEA MONDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE
FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES AS OF 06Z (RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW AT KECG)...WITH EITHER LOW MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT.
SOME VARIABILITY IS ANTICIPATED IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 12Z...WILL
AVG IFR WITH CIGS JUST BELOW 1000 FT AND VSBYS OF 2-3SM. COULD
BRIEFLY SEE LIFR CONDS IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS (PROBABLY MOST
LIKELY AT KORF). GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO AROUND 25 KT AT
ORF/KECG...AROUND 20 KT ELSEWHERE.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 12Z...ALTHOUGH WILL HANG
ONTO IFR CIGS AT MOST SITES THROUGH AROUND 15Z...WITH CIGS LIFTING
TO 1500-2500 FT THEREAFTER. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE NW AND REMAIN
GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. A
WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT/EARLY
FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA HEADLINES FORECAST THRU WEDS.

LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED JUST OFF THE NC/VA COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THE LOW HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY...RESULTING IN AN UPTICK OF N-NE
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. BEGINNING TO SEE 20 KT GUSTS OVER THE
BAY/LOWER JAMES WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KT OVER THE NRN COASTAL
WATERS. SEAS HAVE RESPONDED...BUILDING TO 7 FT AT BUOY 44009. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP THRU LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS (GUSTS TO 30 KT) EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WATERS TONIGHT AS
THE LOW INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY AND LIFTS AWAY FROM THE COAST. LOW LEVEL
CAA ALSO INTENSIFIES. GALE CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN COASTAL WATERS...CLOSEST TO THE STRONGEST
GRADIENT WINDS AND CAA. SEAS BUILD TO 7 TO 12 FT IN THE NRN WATERS
AND 5 TO 8 FT IN THE SRN WATERS TONIGHT. AS THE LOW LIFTS
AWAY...FLOW BACKS TO THE NW...KEEPING HIGH SEAS FROM REACHING THE
BEACHES. NO HIGH SURF PLANNED ATTM. LITTLE CHANGE TUES AS STRONG NW
FLOW PERSISTS BTWN LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OH VALLEY. GALE CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE NRN COASTAL
WATERS THRU EARLY TUES EVENING...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 5-8 FT TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
FINALLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATE WEDS...ALLOWING WINDS TO
DIMINISH AOB 15 KT. SEAS SUBSIDE THRU WEDS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE WATERS THURS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT CLIPPER FRONT
SET TO CROSS THE WATERS THURS NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OCEAN CITY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...FELL
SHORT OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS AS WINDS SHIFTED FASTER THAN
EXPECTED FROM ONSHORE E/NE MON AFTN TO OFFSHORE N/NW. DEPARTURES
HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. MDL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPCOMING TIDE THIS AFTN REACHING ABOVE 4 FT
MLLW...BUT THIS APPEARS WELL OVERDONE GIVEN THE N/NW WIND
DIRECTION AND CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. NAM- BASED CBOFS GUIDANCE IS
RUNNING ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER THAN REALITY...BUT IN TERMS OF TREND
SHOWS THE TIDE THIS AFTN TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE HIGH TIDE
EARLIER THIS MORNING THAT ONLY PEAKED AT 3.7 FT MLLW. WILL
MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH MID MORNING...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
COASTAL FLOOD ADVSIORY AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE
OFFSHORE WIND FLOW.

ACRS THE LOWER BAY DEPARTURES ARE ALSO RUNNING AS HIGH AS 1.5 TO 2
FEET...BUT THIS STILL LEADS TO TIDES FALLING AT LEAST 0.5 FT SHY
OF MINOR FLOODING THIS AFTN. DEPARTURES WILL FALL TONIGHT INTO WED
WITH NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ081-
     089>091-093>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...









000
FXUS61 KLWX 270855
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
355 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
WEDNESDAY BEFORE A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH LATER THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
INTENSE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPACT AREAS MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS.
ENERGY FROM A NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL KEEP LIGHT
SNOW BANDS GOING FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AND WILL PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL
HALF INCH TO ONE INCH OF SNOW IN SPOTS. WILL KEEP ALL WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING. FALLING SNOW AND SUB
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE SLIPPERY TRAVEL. THE UPPER TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY WILL PULL INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER
TODAY WITH ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES COMING TO AN END. A
FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL HANG ON OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT BUT SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO VERY MUCH DURING TODAY.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR TODAY.
WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
MPH...SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER THE RIDGETOPS. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S WILL
CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE TEENS AND 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

A COLD AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL FALL BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OUT WEST TO THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S EAST. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REDUCE WIND CHILLS INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO SUNSHINE AND LESS WIND. TEMPERATURE
WILL BE SLOW TO RISE AS COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 20S OVER THE NORTH AND WEST
TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING DRY
AND COLD CONDITIONS. WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE WITH THE
MIN TEMPS DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS
ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND...TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S IN
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE PASSING
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. A PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
REGION FRIDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM AND IT WILL BE QUITE COLD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
BUT IT WILL REMAIN COLD.

LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION. DETAILS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN THIS
FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN LOW CIGS AND VSBY
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SNOW BANDS. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LIFT TO VFR
LATER TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION AND
SUBVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY...BUT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE NOT INCREASED MUCH OVERNIGHT AND THEREFORE HAVE CANCELLED
THE GALE WARNING AND REPLACED IT WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
TODAY. WIND GUSTS ON THE WATERS WILL REACH 25 TO 30 KTS AS LOW
PRESSURE PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC. THE GRADIENT WILL BE SLOW TO RELAX AND SCA
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
WATERS FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE WATERS FRIDAY...BUT GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AND A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     DCZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ003-
     502.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MDZ004>006-011-013-014-016>018-503>508.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ501.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ028-
     031-503-504.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ052>057-505-506.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ050>053-055-502-504>506.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ501-
     503.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>534-537>543.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...BJL/KRW
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/KRW
MARINE...BJL/KRW







000
FXUS61 KLWX 270855
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
355 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
WEDNESDAY BEFORE A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH LATER THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
INTENSE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPACT AREAS MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS.
ENERGY FROM A NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL KEEP LIGHT
SNOW BANDS GOING FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AND WILL PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL
HALF INCH TO ONE INCH OF SNOW IN SPOTS. WILL KEEP ALL WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING. FALLING SNOW AND SUB
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE SLIPPERY TRAVEL. THE UPPER TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY WILL PULL INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER
TODAY WITH ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES COMING TO AN END. A
FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL HANG ON OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT BUT SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO VERY MUCH DURING TODAY.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR TODAY.
WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
MPH...SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER THE RIDGETOPS. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S WILL
CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE TEENS AND 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

A COLD AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL FALL BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OUT WEST TO THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S EAST. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REDUCE WIND CHILLS INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO SUNSHINE AND LESS WIND. TEMPERATURE
WILL BE SLOW TO RISE AS COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 20S OVER THE NORTH AND WEST
TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING DRY
AND COLD CONDITIONS. WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE WITH THE
MIN TEMPS DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS
ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND...TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S IN
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE PASSING
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. A PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
REGION FRIDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM AND IT WILL BE QUITE COLD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
BUT IT WILL REMAIN COLD.

LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION. DETAILS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN THIS
FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN LOW CIGS AND VSBY
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SNOW BANDS. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LIFT TO VFR
LATER TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION AND
SUBVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY...BUT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE NOT INCREASED MUCH OVERNIGHT AND THEREFORE HAVE CANCELLED
THE GALE WARNING AND REPLACED IT WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
TODAY. WIND GUSTS ON THE WATERS WILL REACH 25 TO 30 KTS AS LOW
PRESSURE PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC. THE GRADIENT WILL BE SLOW TO RELAX AND SCA
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
WATERS FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE WATERS FRIDAY...BUT GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AND A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     DCZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ003-
     502.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MDZ004>006-011-013-014-016>018-503>508.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ501.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ028-
     031-503-504.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ052>057-505-506.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ050>053-055-502-504>506.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ501-
     503.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>534-537>543.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...BJL/KRW
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/KRW
MARINE...BJL/KRW







000
FXUS61 KLWX 270855
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
355 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
WEDNESDAY BEFORE A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH LATER THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
INTENSE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPACT AREAS MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS.
ENERGY FROM A NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL KEEP LIGHT
SNOW BANDS GOING FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AND WILL PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL
HALF INCH TO ONE INCH OF SNOW IN SPOTS. WILL KEEP ALL WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING. FALLING SNOW AND SUB
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE SLIPPERY TRAVEL. THE UPPER TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY WILL PULL INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER
TODAY WITH ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES COMING TO AN END. A
FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL HANG ON OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT BUT SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO VERY MUCH DURING TODAY.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR TODAY.
WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
MPH...SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER THE RIDGETOPS. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S WILL
CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE TEENS AND 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

A COLD AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL FALL BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OUT WEST TO THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S EAST. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REDUCE WIND CHILLS INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO SUNSHINE AND LESS WIND. TEMPERATURE
WILL BE SLOW TO RISE AS COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 20S OVER THE NORTH AND WEST
TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING DRY
AND COLD CONDITIONS. WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE WITH THE
MIN TEMPS DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS
ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND...TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S IN
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE PASSING
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. A PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
REGION FRIDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM AND IT WILL BE QUITE COLD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
BUT IT WILL REMAIN COLD.

LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION. DETAILS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN THIS
FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN LOW CIGS AND VSBY
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SNOW BANDS. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LIFT TO VFR
LATER TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION AND
SUBVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY...BUT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE NOT INCREASED MUCH OVERNIGHT AND THEREFORE HAVE CANCELLED
THE GALE WARNING AND REPLACED IT WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
TODAY. WIND GUSTS ON THE WATERS WILL REACH 25 TO 30 KTS AS LOW
PRESSURE PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC. THE GRADIENT WILL BE SLOW TO RELAX AND SCA
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
WATERS FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE WATERS FRIDAY...BUT GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AND A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     DCZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ003-
     502.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MDZ004>006-011-013-014-016>018-503>508.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ501.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ028-
     031-503-504.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ052>057-505-506.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ050>053-055-502-504>506.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ501-
     503.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>534-537>543.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...BJL/KRW
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/KRW
MARINE...BJL/KRW







000
FXUS61 KLWX 270855
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
355 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
WEDNESDAY BEFORE A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH LATER THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
INTENSE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPACT AREAS MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS.
ENERGY FROM A NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL KEEP LIGHT
SNOW BANDS GOING FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AND WILL PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL
HALF INCH TO ONE INCH OF SNOW IN SPOTS. WILL KEEP ALL WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING. FALLING SNOW AND SUB
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE SLIPPERY TRAVEL. THE UPPER TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY WILL PULL INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER
TODAY WITH ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES COMING TO AN END. A
FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL HANG ON OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT BUT SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO VERY MUCH DURING TODAY.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR TODAY.
WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
MPH...SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER THE RIDGETOPS. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S WILL
CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE TEENS AND 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

A COLD AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL FALL BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OUT WEST TO THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S EAST. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REDUCE WIND CHILLS INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO SUNSHINE AND LESS WIND. TEMPERATURE
WILL BE SLOW TO RISE AS COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 20S OVER THE NORTH AND WEST
TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING DRY
AND COLD CONDITIONS. WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE WITH THE
MIN TEMPS DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS
ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND...TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S IN
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE PASSING
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. A PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
REGION FRIDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM AND IT WILL BE QUITE COLD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
BUT IT WILL REMAIN COLD.

LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION. DETAILS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN THIS
FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN LOW CIGS AND VSBY
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SNOW BANDS. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LIFT TO VFR
LATER TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION AND
SUBVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY...BUT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE NOT INCREASED MUCH OVERNIGHT AND THEREFORE HAVE CANCELLED
THE GALE WARNING AND REPLACED IT WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
TODAY. WIND GUSTS ON THE WATERS WILL REACH 25 TO 30 KTS AS LOW
PRESSURE PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC. THE GRADIENT WILL BE SLOW TO RELAX AND SCA
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
WATERS FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE WATERS FRIDAY...BUT GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AND A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     DCZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ003-
     502.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MDZ004>006-011-013-014-016>018-503>508.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ501.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ028-
     031-503-504.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ052>057-505-506.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ050>053-055-502-504>506.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ501-
     503.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>534-537>543.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...BJL/KRW
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/KRW
MARINE...BJL/KRW







000
FXUS61 KRNK 270852
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
352 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT OUR WEATHER THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS...ALONG WITH SOME
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A CLIPPER FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM EST TUESDAY...

NARROW AXIS OF PRECIP MOVING ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VA EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH SOME SNOW...BUT TEMPS RUNNING IN THE MID 30S WILL ONLY RESULT
IN A DUSTING AT MOST ON GRASSY SURFACES. UPSTREAM...NEXT SHORTWAVE
DIVING INTO KY WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS BY
MIDDAY. THIS WILL BRING A SHOT OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NC MTNS NWD
INTO SE WV. OVERALL...AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN 2 INCHES...BUT WILL
KEEP THE CURRENT ADVISORY FOR THE NC MTNS INTO GRAYSON GOING.

THIS WAVE WILL EXIT THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST AREAS CLEARING OUTSIDE
THE WRN SLOPES. THE FINAL PIECE OF ENERGY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.

THIS WAVE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE
UPSLOPE ZONES OF SE WV AS THE MAIN TRACK OF THE VORT IS FURTHER
NORTH. AN INCH OR TWO COULD FALL WITH THIS BUT NOT ADVISORY LEVELS.

IN ADDITION...MODELS SHOWING GOOD PRESSURE RISES WITH SUBSIDENCE
WITH THIS WAVE...THOUGH SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ORIENTATION AND 8H
WINDS NOT FAVORING A HIGH WIND EVENT. STILL COULD SEE A FEW HOURS
THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND ADJACENT AREAS
REACH 40 TO 45 MPH. WILL HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.

WILL BE MUCH COLDER TODAY IN THE MOUNTAINS...THANKS TO THE SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR HEADING IN WITH GUSTY WINDS. LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE 20S
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND INTO SE WV...TO AROUND 30 NEW RIVER
VALLEY...UPPER 30S ROANOKE...AND MID 40S SOUTHSIDE VA/NW NC PIEDMONT.

TONIGHT...WITH WINDS STAYING UP...SHOULD KEEP ENOUGH MIXING TO
PREVENT TEMPS FROM DROPPING REALLY FAR. STILL LOOKING AT TEENS WEST
TO LOWER 20S EAST...ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EST TUESDAY...

1029 MB SFC HIGH WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY.
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY...THUS
ENDING UPSLOPE SNOW FLURRIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL WARM
INTO THE UPPER 20S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S IN THE
SOUTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER WILL SHIFT
EAST OF OUR AREA...WHILE OUR NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM HEADS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WINDS WILL BACK AND INCREASE IN
SPEED. CLOUD COVER WILL START TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE A CHALLENGE
WITH WARM ADVECTION. FOLLOWED SUPERBLEND FOR LOWS WITH READINGS FROM
MID TEENS IN THE NORTHWEST VALLEYS TO MID AND UPPER 20S ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
COULD ALLOW FOR COOLER VALLEY MINIMUMS.

BY THURSDAY MORNING...THE LOW CENTER IS IN THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
TRAILING COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY. MOISTURE
ARRIVES EARLY ENOUGH IN THE FAR WEST TO ALLOW FOR LIGHT POPS FOR
SNOW...BEFORE BETTER POPS TO ARRIVE MIDDAY INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE WEST WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL VARY FROM THE MID 30S IN
THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE..UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW FLURRIES
EXPECTED FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS WITH BLUSTERY
NORTHWEST WINDS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE WEST OF AN INCH OR TWO
MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS. LOW
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 20 DEGREES IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EST TUESDAY...

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO MUCH BELOW THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...ALONG WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.

UPPER LEVELS WILL BE EVOLVING TO MORE OF A DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM.
THE LATEST INDICATIONS POINT TO A COLDER MORE AMPLIFIED EASTERN TROF
DEVELOPING AS PER THE ECMWF...AND SPLIT FLOW OUT WEST WITH A RIDGE
FOR THE PACIFIC NW AND A CUTOFF LOW REGENERATING OVER THE BAJA
PENINSULA.

THE SNOW SHOWERS AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY. 1036
MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FOR SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST SUNDAY. MOISTURE AHEAD AND ALONG THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING VERY STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS TO USHER IN A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR AND COLD
TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.  THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH THIS MESSAGE AND NAEFS ANOMALIES NOW SUPPORT THE GFS
TREND TOWARD THIS SOLUTION SO CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN THIS COLD
OUTBREAK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY...

DEEP COASTAL LOW PRESSURE AREA THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS TAF VALID
CYCLE. THE MAIN EFFECTS OF THIS STORM WILL BE FOR THE BIG CITIES
IN THE NORTHEAST. FOR US...WE WILL DEAL WITH A COUPLE OF BANDS OF
SNOW...A DEFORMATION ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW
IMPACTING THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE PIEDMONT INCLUDING
LYH/DAN...WHILE IN THE WEST IS A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE
TRACKING SSE FROM THE OH/TN VALLEY TOWARD EASTERN TN/WESTERN
NC...THAT WILL MAINLY IMPACT EASTERN TN/FAR SOUTHWEST VA/NORTHWEST
NC OVERNIGHT/EARLY TUE. THIS WOULD PRINCIPALLY IMPACT TNB...BUT
COULD IMPACT LWB/BLF/BCB TO SOME EXTENT...SO HAVE INCLUDED -SN
WITH IFR- LIFR CIGS AND MVFR- IFR VSBYS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. IN
ADDITION...THERE WILL BE MVFR-IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST MOST
OF THE NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN WV...WITH MVFR CIGS REMAINING IN PLACE
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE.
WINDS NOW NW IN ALL AREAS WITH SPEEDS 8-12KTS AND GUSTS 20-22KTS
MANY SITES. WINDS SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE
COASTAL LOW INTENSIFIES TO 9-13KTS WITH GUSTS 17-25KTS. AS THE LOW
PULLS NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE DAY TUE...WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE...BUT AT LEAST LOW END GUSTS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE A QUIET DAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TAF LOCATIONS. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM
ARRIVES ON THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CIGS AND
VSBYS...WITH A CHANCE FOR -SHRA...-SHSN IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ015.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK/MBS
AVIATION...PM/RAB




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270821
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
321 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVERNIGHT AS IT
TRACKS NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND
COASTS. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON
WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE AS OF 10 PM EST...
NO CHANGES TO THE INHERITED WSW HEADLINES THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN SEEING MORE THAN AN INCH OF SNOW WITHIN THE ENTIRE
WSW IS LOW. LATEST OPERATIONAL 00Z NAM REMAINS LESS THAN IMPRESSED
WITH POTENTIAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS THRU TUESDAY MORNING. OUTSIDE
OF THE BATCH OF RAIN MOVING SOUTH OVER THE CHES BAY/EASTERN SHORE
ATTM...THE NAM AND LATEST HRRR ARE VOID OF ANY OTHER ORGANIZED
AREAS OF PCPN. AT LEAST WE HAVE BEGUN TO SEE SIGNS OF LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/I-95 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING AS
COLDER AIR ALOFT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH...CONTINUES TO MOVE IN. HOWEVER...OTHER THAN COUNTING ON
THE UPPER TROUGH ITSELF TO GENERATE MEANINGFUL SNOW SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT/TUES MORNING...THE AREA WILL REMAIN TO FAR REMOVED FROM
THE DEEPENING SFC LOW OFFSHORE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW. HAVE CONTINUED TO
TRIM SNOW ACCUMULATION WORDING IN THE WSW`S THIS EVENING...AS A
COATING/HALF INCH OF SNOW MAY BE ABOUT THE WORST CASE SCENARIO
MOST PLACES. WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY 2-3" ON THE LOWER MD EASTERN
SHORE CLOSEST TO THE SFC LOW...BUT A FURTHER REDUCTION IN SNOW
TOTALS MAY BE NECESSARY ON THE NEXT SHIFT. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPR
20S NW TO THE MID 30S SE. GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATER
TUES MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CHANGE WAS TO START TRIMMING BACK ON INHERITED
WINTER WX ADVSRYS AS THE LIKELIHOOD FOR 1-3IN OF SNOW HAS DECREASED
OVER MANY AREAS. WPC AND MUCH OF 12Z GUIDANCE SUPPORT THIS
IDEA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADVSRY-LEVEL SNOWFALL STILL OVER
THE LWR MD ERN SHORE WHERE 2-4IN IS PSBL. DO NOT THINK NORFOLK AND
RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE AOA 2IN...BUT WITH THE HEADLINE
ALREADY OUT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO AN INCH TO PSBLY CAUSE
SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...WILL KEEP THOSE AREAS
(AND AREAS N AND E) IN THE ADVSRY FOR NOW. ANOTHER ISSUE IS
TEMPS...WITH PARTS OF THE AREA STAYING JUST A TAD ABOVE FREEZING.
WILL UPDATE AS NEEDED THIS EVENG AND TNGT.

AS FOR PCPN...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDS DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS
ASIDE FM WORCESTER CNTY WHERE AN AREA OF RA HAS BEEN PERSISTENT.
BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES THIS EVENG AS SFC LO PRES DEVELOPS
OFFSHORE. POPS RANGE FM 40-50% SW TO 70-80% NE. THE RA WILL
TRANSITION TO A RA/SN MIX THEN SN FM NW TO SE TNGT. TOTAL QPF WILL
BE UP TO A QUARTER INCH. LO TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 20S FAR
NW TO MID 30S SE. PCPN WILL END FM W TO E ON TUE AS THE SFC LO
ADVANCES TOWARDS THE GULF OF ME AND NW CAA FLOW LEADS TO GUSTS TO
25-30 MPH NR THE CST AND LWR ERN SHORE. HI TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID
30S TO LWR 40S UNDER A CLOUDY-MSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED CSTL LO PULLS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AS SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W. EXPECT
DECREASING CLOUDS TUE NIGHT WITH NW WINDS. LO TEMPS WILL RANGE
THRU THE 20S...WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.
COOL TEMPS INTO WED AS WELL...WITH HIGHS ONLY RANGING FM THE MID
30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR 30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE.
DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH SIMILAR TEMPS AS TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE
MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST STATES SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A CHC OF RAIN IS IN
THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW PSBL FAR NRN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW AND THEN
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK MOVING FRONTAL
WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT TO SEA MONDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE
FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES AS OF 06Z (RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW AT KECG)...WITH EITHER LOW MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT.
SOME VARIABILITY IS ANTICIPATED IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 12Z...WILL
AVG IFR WITH CIGS JUST BELOW 1000 FT AND VSBYS OF 2-3SM. COULD
BRIEFLY SEE LIFR CONDS IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS (PROBABLY MOST
LIKELY AT KORF). GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO AROUND 25 KT AT
ORF/KECG...AROUND 20 KT ELSEWHERE.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 12Z...ALTHOUGH WILL HANG
ONTO IFR CIGS AT MOST SITES THROUGH AROUND 15Z...WITH CIGS LIFTING
TO 1500-2500 FT THEREAFTER. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE NW AND REMAIN
GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. A
WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT/EARLY
FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA HEADLINES FORECAST THRU WEDS.

LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED JUST OFF THE NC/VA COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THE LOW HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY...RESULTING IN AN UPTICK OF N-NE
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. BEGINNING TO SEE 20 KT GUSTS OVER THE
BAY/LOWER JAMES WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KT OVER THE NRN COASTAL
WATERS. SEAS HAVE RESPONDED...BUILDING TO 7 FT AT BUOY 44009. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP THRU LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS (GUSTS TO 30 KT) EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WATERS TONIGHT AS
THE LOW INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY AND LIFTS AWAY FROM THE COAST. LOW LEVEL
CAA ALSO INTENSIFIES. GALE CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN COASTAL WATERS...CLOSEST TO THE STRONGEST
GRADIENT WINDS AND CAA. SEAS BUILD TO 7 TO 12 FT IN THE NRN WATERS
AND 5 TO 8 FT IN THE SRN WATERS TONIGHT. AS THE LOW LIFTS
AWAY...FLOW BACKS TO THE NW...KEEPING HIGH SEAS FROM REACHING THE
BEACHES. NO HIGH SURF PLANNED ATTM. LITTLE CHANGE TUES AS STRONG NW
FLOW PERSISTS BTWN LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OH VALLEY. GALE CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE NRN COASTAL
WATERS THRU EARLY TUES EVENING...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 5-8 FT TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
FINALLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATE WEDS...ALLOWING WINDS TO
DIMINISH AOB 15 KT. SEAS SUBSIDE THRU WEDS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE WATERS THURS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT CLIPPER FRONT
SET TO CROSS THE WATERS THURS NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OCEAN CITY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...FELL
SHORT OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS AS WINDS SHIFTED FASTER THAN
EXPECTED FROM ONSHORE E/NE MON AFTN TO OFFSHORE N/NW. DEPARTURES
HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. MDL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPCOMING TIDE THIS AFTN REACHING ABOVE 4 FT
MLLW...BUT THIS APPEARS WELL OVERDONE GIVEN THE N/NW WIND
DIRECTION AND CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. NAM- BASED CBOFS GUIDANCE IS
RUNNING ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER THAN REALITY...BUT IN TERMS OF TREND
SHOWS THE TIDE THIS AFTN TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE HIGH TIDE
EARLIER THIS MORNING THAT ONLY PEAKED AT 3.7 FT MLLW. WILL
MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH MID MORNING...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
COASTAL FLOOD ADVSIORY AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE
OFFSHORE WIND FLOW.

ACRS THE LOWER BAY DEPARTURES ARE ALSO RUNNING AS HIGH AS 1.5 TO 2
FEET...BUT THIS STILL LEADS TO TIDES FALLING AT LEAST 0.5 FT SHY
OF MINOR FLOODING THIS AFTN. DEPARTURES WILL FALL TONIGHT INTO WED
WITH NO FLOODING CONCERNS.


&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ081-
     089>091-093>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/MAS
NEAR TERM...JDM/MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270821
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
321 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVERNIGHT AS IT
TRACKS NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND
COASTS. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON
WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE AS OF 10 PM EST...
NO CHANGES TO THE INHERITED WSW HEADLINES THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN SEEING MORE THAN AN INCH OF SNOW WITHIN THE ENTIRE
WSW IS LOW. LATEST OPERATIONAL 00Z NAM REMAINS LESS THAN IMPRESSED
WITH POTENTIAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS THRU TUESDAY MORNING. OUTSIDE
OF THE BATCH OF RAIN MOVING SOUTH OVER THE CHES BAY/EASTERN SHORE
ATTM...THE NAM AND LATEST HRRR ARE VOID OF ANY OTHER ORGANIZED
AREAS OF PCPN. AT LEAST WE HAVE BEGUN TO SEE SIGNS OF LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/I-95 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING AS
COLDER AIR ALOFT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH...CONTINUES TO MOVE IN. HOWEVER...OTHER THAN COUNTING ON
THE UPPER TROUGH ITSELF TO GENERATE MEANINGFUL SNOW SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT/TUES MORNING...THE AREA WILL REMAIN TO FAR REMOVED FROM
THE DEEPENING SFC LOW OFFSHORE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW. HAVE CONTINUED TO
TRIM SNOW ACCUMULATION WORDING IN THE WSW`S THIS EVENING...AS A
COATING/HALF INCH OF SNOW MAY BE ABOUT THE WORST CASE SCENARIO
MOST PLACES. WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY 2-3" ON THE LOWER MD EASTERN
SHORE CLOSEST TO THE SFC LOW...BUT A FURTHER REDUCTION IN SNOW
TOTALS MAY BE NECESSARY ON THE NEXT SHIFT. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPR
20S NW TO THE MID 30S SE. GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATER
TUES MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CHANGE WAS TO START TRIMMING BACK ON INHERITED
WINTER WX ADVSRYS AS THE LIKELIHOOD FOR 1-3IN OF SNOW HAS DECREASED
OVER MANY AREAS. WPC AND MUCH OF 12Z GUIDANCE SUPPORT THIS
IDEA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADVSRY-LEVEL SNOWFALL STILL OVER
THE LWR MD ERN SHORE WHERE 2-4IN IS PSBL. DO NOT THINK NORFOLK AND
RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE AOA 2IN...BUT WITH THE HEADLINE
ALREADY OUT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO AN INCH TO PSBLY CAUSE
SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...WILL KEEP THOSE AREAS
(AND AREAS N AND E) IN THE ADVSRY FOR NOW. ANOTHER ISSUE IS
TEMPS...WITH PARTS OF THE AREA STAYING JUST A TAD ABOVE FREEZING.
WILL UPDATE AS NEEDED THIS EVENG AND TNGT.

AS FOR PCPN...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDS DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS
ASIDE FM WORCESTER CNTY WHERE AN AREA OF RA HAS BEEN PERSISTENT.
BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES THIS EVENG AS SFC LO PRES DEVELOPS
OFFSHORE. POPS RANGE FM 40-50% SW TO 70-80% NE. THE RA WILL
TRANSITION TO A RA/SN MIX THEN SN FM NW TO SE TNGT. TOTAL QPF WILL
BE UP TO A QUARTER INCH. LO TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 20S FAR
NW TO MID 30S SE. PCPN WILL END FM W TO E ON TUE AS THE SFC LO
ADVANCES TOWARDS THE GULF OF ME AND NW CAA FLOW LEADS TO GUSTS TO
25-30 MPH NR THE CST AND LWR ERN SHORE. HI TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID
30S TO LWR 40S UNDER A CLOUDY-MSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED CSTL LO PULLS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AS SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W. EXPECT
DECREASING CLOUDS TUE NIGHT WITH NW WINDS. LO TEMPS WILL RANGE
THRU THE 20S...WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.
COOL TEMPS INTO WED AS WELL...WITH HIGHS ONLY RANGING FM THE MID
30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR 30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE.
DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH SIMILAR TEMPS AS TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE
MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST STATES SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A CHC OF RAIN IS IN
THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW PSBL FAR NRN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW AND THEN
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK MOVING FRONTAL
WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT TO SEA MONDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE
FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES AS OF 06Z (RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW AT KECG)...WITH EITHER LOW MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT.
SOME VARIABILITY IS ANTICIPATED IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 12Z...WILL
AVG IFR WITH CIGS JUST BELOW 1000 FT AND VSBYS OF 2-3SM. COULD
BRIEFLY SEE LIFR CONDS IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS (PROBABLY MOST
LIKELY AT KORF). GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO AROUND 25 KT AT
ORF/KECG...AROUND 20 KT ELSEWHERE.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 12Z...ALTHOUGH WILL HANG
ONTO IFR CIGS AT MOST SITES THROUGH AROUND 15Z...WITH CIGS LIFTING
TO 1500-2500 FT THEREAFTER. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE NW AND REMAIN
GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. A
WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT/EARLY
FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA HEADLINES FORECAST THRU WEDS.

LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED JUST OFF THE NC/VA COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THE LOW HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY...RESULTING IN AN UPTICK OF N-NE
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. BEGINNING TO SEE 20 KT GUSTS OVER THE
BAY/LOWER JAMES WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KT OVER THE NRN COASTAL
WATERS. SEAS HAVE RESPONDED...BUILDING TO 7 FT AT BUOY 44009. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP THRU LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS (GUSTS TO 30 KT) EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WATERS TONIGHT AS
THE LOW INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY AND LIFTS AWAY FROM THE COAST. LOW LEVEL
CAA ALSO INTENSIFIES. GALE CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN COASTAL WATERS...CLOSEST TO THE STRONGEST
GRADIENT WINDS AND CAA. SEAS BUILD TO 7 TO 12 FT IN THE NRN WATERS
AND 5 TO 8 FT IN THE SRN WATERS TONIGHT. AS THE LOW LIFTS
AWAY...FLOW BACKS TO THE NW...KEEPING HIGH SEAS FROM REACHING THE
BEACHES. NO HIGH SURF PLANNED ATTM. LITTLE CHANGE TUES AS STRONG NW
FLOW PERSISTS BTWN LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OH VALLEY. GALE CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE NRN COASTAL
WATERS THRU EARLY TUES EVENING...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 5-8 FT TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
FINALLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATE WEDS...ALLOWING WINDS TO
DIMINISH AOB 15 KT. SEAS SUBSIDE THRU WEDS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE WATERS THURS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT CLIPPER FRONT
SET TO CROSS THE WATERS THURS NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OCEAN CITY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...FELL
SHORT OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS AS WINDS SHIFTED FASTER THAN
EXPECTED FROM ONSHORE E/NE MON AFTN TO OFFSHORE N/NW. DEPARTURES
HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. MDL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPCOMING TIDE THIS AFTN REACHING ABOVE 4 FT
MLLW...BUT THIS APPEARS WELL OVERDONE GIVEN THE N/NW WIND
DIRECTION AND CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. NAM- BASED CBOFS GUIDANCE IS
RUNNING ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER THAN REALITY...BUT IN TERMS OF TREND
SHOWS THE TIDE THIS AFTN TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE HIGH TIDE
EARLIER THIS MORNING THAT ONLY PEAKED AT 3.7 FT MLLW. WILL
MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH MID MORNING...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
COASTAL FLOOD ADVSIORY AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE
OFFSHORE WIND FLOW.

ACRS THE LOWER BAY DEPARTURES ARE ALSO RUNNING AS HIGH AS 1.5 TO 2
FEET...BUT THIS STILL LEADS TO TIDES FALLING AT LEAST 0.5 FT SHY
OF MINOR FLOODING THIS AFTN. DEPARTURES WILL FALL TONIGHT INTO WED
WITH NO FLOODING CONCERNS.


&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ081-
     089>091-093>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/MAS
NEAR TERM...JDM/MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270612
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
112 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVERNIGHT AS IT
TRACKS NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND
COASTS. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON
WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE AS OF 10 PM EST...
NO CHANGES TO THE INHERITED WSW HEADLINES THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN SEEING MORE THAN AN INCH OF SNOW WITHIN THE ENTIRE
WSW IS LOW. LATEST OPERATIONAL 00Z NAM REMAINS LESS THAN IMPRESSED
WITH POTENTIAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS THRU TUESDAY MORNING. OUTSIDE
OF THE BATCH OF RAIN MOVING SOUTH OVER THE CHES BAY/EASTERN SHORE
ATTM...THE NAM AND LATEST HRRR ARE VOID OF ANY OTHER ORGANIZED
AREAS OF PCPN. AT LEAST WE HAVE BEGUN TO SEE SIGNS OF LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/I-95 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING AS
COLDER AIR ALOFT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH...CONTINUES TO MOVE IN. HOWEVER...OTHER THAN COUNTING ON
THE UPPER TROUGH ITSELF TO GENERATE MEANINGFUL SNOW SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT/TUES MORNING...THE AREA WILL REMAIN TO FAR REMOVED FROM
THE DEEPENING SFC LOW OFFSHORE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW. HAVE CONTINUED TO
TRIM SNOW ACCUMULATION WORDING IN THE WSW`S THIS EVENING...AS A
COATING/HALF INCH OF SNOW MAY BE ABOUT THE WORST CASE SCENARIO
MOST PLACES. WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY 2-3" ON THE LOWER MD EASTERN
SHORE CLOSEST TO THE SFC LOW...BUT A FURTHER REDUCTION IN SNOW
TOTALS MAY BE NECESSARY ON THE NEXT SHIFT. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPR
20S NW TO THE MID 30S SE. GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATER
TUES MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CHANGE WAS TO START TRIMMING BACK ON INHERITED
WINTER WX ADVSRYS AS THE LIKELIHOOD FOR 1-3IN OF SNOW HAS DECREASED
OVER MANY AREAS. WPC AND MUCH OF 12Z GUIDANCE SUPPORT THIS
IDEA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADVSRY-LEVEL SNOWFALL STILL OVER
THE LWR MD ERN SHORE WHERE 2-4IN IS PSBL. DO NOT THINK NORFOLK AND
RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE AOA 2IN...BUT WITH THE HEADLINE
ALREADY OUT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO AN INCH TO PSBLY CAUSE
SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...WILL KEEP THOSE AREAS
(AND AREAS N AND E) IN THE ADVSRY FOR NOW. ANOTHER ISSUE IS
TEMPS...WITH PARTS OF THE AREA STAYING JUST A TAD ABOVE FREEZING.
WILL UPDATE AS NEEDED THIS EVENG AND TNGT.

AS FOR PCPN...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDS DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS
ASIDE FM WORCESTER CNTY WHERE AN AREA OF RA HAS BEEN PERSISTENT.
BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES THIS EVENG AS SFC LO PRES DEVELOPS
OFFSHORE. POPS RANGE FM 40-50% SW TO 70-80% NE. THE RA WILL
TRANSITION TO A RA/SN MIX THEN SN FM NW TO SE TNGT. TOTAL QPF WILL
BE UP TO A QUARTER INCH. LO TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 20S FAR
NW TO MID 30S SE. PCPN WILL END FM W TO E ON TUE AS THE SFC LO
ADVANCES TOWARDS THE GULF OF ME AND NW CAA FLOW LEADS TO GUSTS TO
25-30 MPH NR THE CST AND LWR ERN SHORE. HI TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID
30S TO LWR 40S UNDER A CLOUDY-MSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED CSTL LO PULLS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AS SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W. EXPECT
DECREASING CLOUDS TUE NIGHT WITH NW WINDS. LO TEMPS WILL RANGE
THRU THE 20S...WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.
COOL TEMPS INTO WED AS WELL...WITH HIGHS ONLY RANGING FM THE MID
30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR 30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE.
DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH SIMILAR TEMPS AS TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE
MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST STATES SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A CHC OF RAIN IS IN
THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW PSBL FAR NRN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW AND THEN
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK MOVING FRONTAL
WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT TO SEA MONDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE
FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES AS OF 06Z (RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW AT KECG)...WITH EITHER LOW MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT.
SOME VARIABILITY IS ANTICIPATED IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 12Z...WILL
AVG IFR WITH CIGS JUST BELOW 1000 FT AND VSBYS OF 2-3SM. COULD
BRIEFLY SEE LIFR CONDS IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS (PROBABLY MOST
LIKELY AT KORF). GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO AROUND 25 KT AT
ORF/KECG...AROUND 20 KT ELSEWHERE.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 12Z...ALTHOUGH WILL HANG
ONTO IFR CIGS AT MOST SITES THROUGH AROUND 15Z...WITH CIGS LIFTING
TO 1500-2500 FT THEREAFTER. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE NW AND REMAIN
GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. A
WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT/EARLY
FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA HEADLINES FORECAST THRU WEDS.

LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED JUST OFF THE NC/VA COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THE LOW HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY...RESULTING IN AN UPTICK OF N-NE
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. BEGINNING TO SEE 20 KT GUSTS OVER THE
BAY/LOWER JAMES WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KT OVER THE NRN COASTAL
WATERS. SEAS HAVE RESPONDED...BUILDING TO 7 FT AT BUOY 44009. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP THRU LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS (GUSTS TO 30 KT) EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WATERS TONIGHT AS
THE LOW INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY AND LIFTS AWAY FROM THE COAST. LOW LEVEL
CAA ALSO INTENSIFIES. GALE CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN COASTAL WATERS...CLOSEST TO THE STRONGEST
GRADIENT WINDS AND CAA. SEAS BUILD TO 7 TO 12 FT IN THE NRN WATERS
AND 5 TO 8 FT IN THE SRN WATERS TONIGHT. AS THE LOW LIFTS
AWAY...FLOW BACKS TO THE NW...KEEPING HIGH SEAS FROM REACHING THE
BEACHES. NO HIGH SURF PLANNED ATTM. LITTLE CHANGE TUES AS STRONG NW
FLOW PERSISTS BTWN LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OH VALLEY. GALE CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE NRN COASTAL
WATERS THRU EARLY TUES EVENING...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 5-8 FT TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
FINALLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATE WEDS...ALLOWING WINDS TO
DIMINISH AOB 15 KT. SEAS SUBSIDE THRU WEDS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE WATERS THURS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT CLIPPER FRONT
SET TO CROSS THE WATERS THURS NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF STRONG NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS. TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST
TO REACH 1.5 TO 2.0 FT IN THE LOWER BAY AND AROUND 2.0 FT FOR THE
COASTAL AREAS OF THE ERN SHORE. MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS ARE
ANTICIPATED AT OCEAN CITY INLET...WITH A WATER LEVEL OF AROUND 4.0 FT.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND DOWN FROM MODERATE FLOODING...WHICH
MAKES SENSE GIVEN A MORE NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND DIRECTION. THE
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY.

WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS
IN THE LOWER BAY...BUT WILL REACH SLIGHTLY ABOVE HIGHEST ASTRO
TIDE. ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGH ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY...BEFORE
ANOMALIES DROP OFF TUE NGT/WED AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE
REGION. AFTER CURRENT ADVISORY ENDS MAY NEED TO PLACE ANOTHER ONE
IN EFFECT FOR THE TUE AFTN HIGH TIDE AT OCEAN CITY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ021>025.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ081-
     089>091-093>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>638-
     654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/MAS
NEAR TERM...JDM/MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270612
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
112 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVERNIGHT AS IT
TRACKS NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND
COASTS. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON
WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE AS OF 10 PM EST...
NO CHANGES TO THE INHERITED WSW HEADLINES THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN SEEING MORE THAN AN INCH OF SNOW WITHIN THE ENTIRE
WSW IS LOW. LATEST OPERATIONAL 00Z NAM REMAINS LESS THAN IMPRESSED
WITH POTENTIAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS THRU TUESDAY MORNING. OUTSIDE
OF THE BATCH OF RAIN MOVING SOUTH OVER THE CHES BAY/EASTERN SHORE
ATTM...THE NAM AND LATEST HRRR ARE VOID OF ANY OTHER ORGANIZED
AREAS OF PCPN. AT LEAST WE HAVE BEGUN TO SEE SIGNS OF LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/I-95 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING AS
COLDER AIR ALOFT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH...CONTINUES TO MOVE IN. HOWEVER...OTHER THAN COUNTING ON
THE UPPER TROUGH ITSELF TO GENERATE MEANINGFUL SNOW SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT/TUES MORNING...THE AREA WILL REMAIN TO FAR REMOVED FROM
THE DEEPENING SFC LOW OFFSHORE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW. HAVE CONTINUED TO
TRIM SNOW ACCUMULATION WORDING IN THE WSW`S THIS EVENING...AS A
COATING/HALF INCH OF SNOW MAY BE ABOUT THE WORST CASE SCENARIO
MOST PLACES. WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY 2-3" ON THE LOWER MD EASTERN
SHORE CLOSEST TO THE SFC LOW...BUT A FURTHER REDUCTION IN SNOW
TOTALS MAY BE NECESSARY ON THE NEXT SHIFT. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPR
20S NW TO THE MID 30S SE. GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATER
TUES MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CHANGE WAS TO START TRIMMING BACK ON INHERITED
WINTER WX ADVSRYS AS THE LIKELIHOOD FOR 1-3IN OF SNOW HAS DECREASED
OVER MANY AREAS. WPC AND MUCH OF 12Z GUIDANCE SUPPORT THIS
IDEA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADVSRY-LEVEL SNOWFALL STILL OVER
THE LWR MD ERN SHORE WHERE 2-4IN IS PSBL. DO NOT THINK NORFOLK AND
RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE AOA 2IN...BUT WITH THE HEADLINE
ALREADY OUT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO AN INCH TO PSBLY CAUSE
SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...WILL KEEP THOSE AREAS
(AND AREAS N AND E) IN THE ADVSRY FOR NOW. ANOTHER ISSUE IS
TEMPS...WITH PARTS OF THE AREA STAYING JUST A TAD ABOVE FREEZING.
WILL UPDATE AS NEEDED THIS EVENG AND TNGT.

AS FOR PCPN...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDS DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS
ASIDE FM WORCESTER CNTY WHERE AN AREA OF RA HAS BEEN PERSISTENT.
BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES THIS EVENG AS SFC LO PRES DEVELOPS
OFFSHORE. POPS RANGE FM 40-50% SW TO 70-80% NE. THE RA WILL
TRANSITION TO A RA/SN MIX THEN SN FM NW TO SE TNGT. TOTAL QPF WILL
BE UP TO A QUARTER INCH. LO TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 20S FAR
NW TO MID 30S SE. PCPN WILL END FM W TO E ON TUE AS THE SFC LO
ADVANCES TOWARDS THE GULF OF ME AND NW CAA FLOW LEADS TO GUSTS TO
25-30 MPH NR THE CST AND LWR ERN SHORE. HI TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID
30S TO LWR 40S UNDER A CLOUDY-MSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED CSTL LO PULLS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AS SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W. EXPECT
DECREASING CLOUDS TUE NIGHT WITH NW WINDS. LO TEMPS WILL RANGE
THRU THE 20S...WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.
COOL TEMPS INTO WED AS WELL...WITH HIGHS ONLY RANGING FM THE MID
30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR 30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE.
DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH SIMILAR TEMPS AS TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE
MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST STATES SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A CHC OF RAIN IS IN
THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW PSBL FAR NRN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW AND THEN
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK MOVING FRONTAL
WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT TO SEA MONDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE
FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES AS OF 06Z (RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW AT KECG)...WITH EITHER LOW MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT.
SOME VARIABILITY IS ANTICIPATED IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 12Z...WILL
AVG IFR WITH CIGS JUST BELOW 1000 FT AND VSBYS OF 2-3SM. COULD
BRIEFLY SEE LIFR CONDS IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS (PROBABLY MOST
LIKELY AT KORF). GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO AROUND 25 KT AT
ORF/KECG...AROUND 20 KT ELSEWHERE.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 12Z...ALTHOUGH WILL HANG
ONTO IFR CIGS AT MOST SITES THROUGH AROUND 15Z...WITH CIGS LIFTING
TO 1500-2500 FT THEREAFTER. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE NW AND REMAIN
GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. A
WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT/EARLY
FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA HEADLINES FORECAST THRU WEDS.

LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED JUST OFF THE NC/VA COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THE LOW HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY...RESULTING IN AN UPTICK OF N-NE
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. BEGINNING TO SEE 20 KT GUSTS OVER THE
BAY/LOWER JAMES WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KT OVER THE NRN COASTAL
WATERS. SEAS HAVE RESPONDED...BUILDING TO 7 FT AT BUOY 44009. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP THRU LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS (GUSTS TO 30 KT) EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WATERS TONIGHT AS
THE LOW INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY AND LIFTS AWAY FROM THE COAST. LOW LEVEL
CAA ALSO INTENSIFIES. GALE CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN COASTAL WATERS...CLOSEST TO THE STRONGEST
GRADIENT WINDS AND CAA. SEAS BUILD TO 7 TO 12 FT IN THE NRN WATERS
AND 5 TO 8 FT IN THE SRN WATERS TONIGHT. AS THE LOW LIFTS
AWAY...FLOW BACKS TO THE NW...KEEPING HIGH SEAS FROM REACHING THE
BEACHES. NO HIGH SURF PLANNED ATTM. LITTLE CHANGE TUES AS STRONG NW
FLOW PERSISTS BTWN LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OH VALLEY. GALE CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE NRN COASTAL
WATERS THRU EARLY TUES EVENING...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 5-8 FT TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
FINALLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATE WEDS...ALLOWING WINDS TO
DIMINISH AOB 15 KT. SEAS SUBSIDE THRU WEDS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE WATERS THURS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT CLIPPER FRONT
SET TO CROSS THE WATERS THURS NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF STRONG NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS. TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST
TO REACH 1.5 TO 2.0 FT IN THE LOWER BAY AND AROUND 2.0 FT FOR THE
COASTAL AREAS OF THE ERN SHORE. MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS ARE
ANTICIPATED AT OCEAN CITY INLET...WITH A WATER LEVEL OF AROUND 4.0 FT.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND DOWN FROM MODERATE FLOODING...WHICH
MAKES SENSE GIVEN A MORE NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND DIRECTION. THE
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY.

WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS
IN THE LOWER BAY...BUT WILL REACH SLIGHTLY ABOVE HIGHEST ASTRO
TIDE. ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGH ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY...BEFORE
ANOMALIES DROP OFF TUE NGT/WED AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE
REGION. AFTER CURRENT ADVISORY ENDS MAY NEED TO PLACE ANOTHER ONE
IN EFFECT FOR THE TUE AFTN HIGH TIDE AT OCEAN CITY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ021>025.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ081-
     089>091-093>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>638-
     654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/MAS
NEAR TERM...JDM/MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ







000
FXUS61 KRNK 270528
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1228 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER VIRGINIA WILL DEVELOP INTO A MAJOR WINTER STORM
AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THIS STORM WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 715 PM EST MONDAY...

NO CHANGES PLANNED TO CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES.

AREA RADARS SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
ALONG A COLD FRONT BEING ENHANCED A BIT BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE. MESO MODELS SEEM TO HAVE BEEN HANDLING THE EVOLUTION
OF THIS WELL AND INDICATE IT WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS IT
MOVES INTO THE PIEDMONT. THEREFORE WILL BE LOWERING POPS OUT EAST.
EXPECT THE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE IN THE BLUSTERY NW
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...AND A MORE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE DIVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF
THE UPPER TROF SHOULD ENERGIZE THE ACTIVITY FROM THE NORTH
CAROLINA MTNS UP INTO THE GRAYSON HIGHLANDS WHERE THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH NOON TOMORROW.

PREVIOUS AFD...

LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY PASSING OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA WITH
UPPER TROF AXIS AND COLDER AIR SPILLING OVER THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND
THIS COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CAUSE FALLING TEMPERATURES FARTHER
EAST AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY
DROPPED INTO THE 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS. READINGS IN THE 40S WERE
FOUND OVER THE PIEDMONT OF NC AND INTO SOUTHSIDE VA...BUT THESE
NUMBERS WILL TAKE A TUMBLE TONIGHT.

THROUGH 4PM TODAY...LITTLE OR NO SNOW HAD ACCUMULATED ANYWHERE
WITHING THE CWA...WITH MAINLY A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND RAIN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AS TEMPERATURES FALL
THIS EVENING...ANY LINGERING RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW. THE
DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE WV HIGHLANDS
WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. LATER TONIGHT THERE WILL BE A SECONDARY SURGE OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE
NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ACCUMULATING
SNOW FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA HIGH COUNTRY AND MOUNT ROGERS IN
VIRGINIA. SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO COME INTO PLAY
LATE TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW 20 DEG F...WILDING 2 TO 1.
AS SUCH...THINK IT IS FEASIBLE TO SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW OVER
THE NC HIGH COUNTRY...POSSIBLY MORE AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 4000 FT.

OVERALL THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A BIG SNOW PRODUCER FOR
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE MAIN MEDIA FOCUS WILL BE ON COASTAL
NEW ENGLAND WHERE THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL WRAP UP INTO A
MAJOR WINTER STORM. FOR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WE GET TO DEAL
WITH THE BACKLASH WINDS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. THEIR IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE COASTAL STORM TO
PENETRATE AS FAR SOUTH AS OUR NORTHEASTERN CWA LATE TONIGHT...SO
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AS THERE MAY BE A NEED FOR
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES FOR AREAS NORTHEAST OF LYNCHBURG...
SPECIFICALLY APPOMATTOX...BUCKINGHAM AND POINTS NORTH AND EAST.

EVEN THOUGH WE ARE NOT ADVERTISING MUCH PRECIP WITHIN OUR LOCAL
FORECAST AREA...THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS VERY DYNAMIC...LOTS OF
ENERGY ALOFT THAT WILL CAUSE THIS STORM TO DEEPEN QUICKLY AS IT
MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. HAVE EVEN SEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
WITHIN THE SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT TODAY WHICH IS
AN INDICATOR OF HOW UNSTABLE THIS ATMOSPHERE IS BECOMING AND THE
POTENTIAL ENERGY THAT IS BUILDING UP FOR THIS THING TO FEED OFF OF
ONCE IT GETS EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND CERTAINLY SETTING THE
STAGE FOR COASTAL BOMBOGENESIS TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLING WITH QPF...AND IT WAS A BIT INTERESTING TO SEE ALL THE
QPF THE GFS MODEL PAINTING OVER OUR CWA THIS MORNING...YET NOT
MUCH WAS OCCURRING...CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN THE MODEL. WHAT REALLY
MADE IT HUMOROUS WAS THE MODEL THEN TOOK THE 4-6 TENTHS OF AN INCH
OF QPF AND CONVERTED IT TO ALL SNOW. ANYONE ISSUING FORECASTS AND
BLINDLY FOLLOWING GUIDANCE THIS MORNING WOULD HAVE THEN
EXPERIENCED A GOOD TASTE OF METEOROLOGICAL/MODEL CANCER...A
GARBAGE IN...GARBAGE OUT SORT OF FORECAST.

QPF ISSUES ASIDE...THE IMPACT FROM THIS STORM FOR OUR LOCAL AREA
WILL BE MINOR COMPARED TO OUR NEIGHBORS TO THE NORTH. I.E. NOTHING
WE HAVN`T SEE BEFORE. IN SUMMARY...A PERIOD OF SNOW IS LIKELY FOR
OUR MOUNTAINS TONIGHT WITH FLURRIES AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
LINGERING INTO TUESDAY. IT WILL BECOME BLUSTERY WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 20MPH...AND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH. A 40 MPH GUST
OVER THE NC/VA/WV HIGHLANDS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. COLDER AIR
SPILLING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS...TO NEAR 30 IN THE PIEDMONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE ON TUESDAY...REMAINING IN THE
20S MOUNTAINS...AND 30S TO NO MORE THAN 40 EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EST MONDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT OUR REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE WITHIN A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST. NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH A ORIGIN ACROSS LAKE
ERIE...WILL BRING MOISTURE UPSLOPE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS...SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH
CAROLINA. ANTICIPATE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ALONG THE PREFERRED
WESTERN SLOPES. AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATEST IN WESTERN GREENBRIER
COUNTY WHERE LESS THAN INCH OF NEW MEASURABLE SNOW IS EXPECTED.
ELSEWHERE...THE SNOW WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF FLURRIES...OR
ACCUMULATING SNOW THAT PRODUCES A DUSTING ON SURFACES. WINDS WILL
GUST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH LESSER
MAGNITUDES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

BY WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE AREA AND LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND VEER MORE NORTHERLY...THUS TURNING OFF
THE UPSLOPE SNOW MACHINE. ANTICIPATE A TREND TOWARD LITTLE OR NO
CLOUD COVER AND WEAKENING WINDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION WHILE OUR NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM HEADS
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOOK FOR WINDS TO BACK
SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD...ALONG WITH AN
ONSET OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. CLOUD COVER WILL START TO INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO THAT BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
REGION. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE IN THE WEST BY
MIDDAY THURSDAY AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM HEADS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS AT THIS TIME TO BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX
IN THE WEST. AS PRECIPITATION SPREADS EAST DURING THE...MILDER AIR
WILL ALLOW FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION
TO PLAIN RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA ONCE WARM AIR ADVECTION STARTS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EST MONDAY...

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO MUCH BELOW THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...ALONG WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY.

UPPER LEVELS WILL BE EVOLVING TO MORE OF A DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM.
THE LATEST INDICATIONS POINT TO A COLDER MORE AMPLIFIED EASTERN TROF
DEVELOPING AS PER THE ECMWF...AND SPLIT FLOW OUT WEST WITH A RIDGE
FOR THE PACIFIC NW AND A CUTOFF LOW REGENERATING OVER THE BAJA
PENINSULA.

THURSDAY NIGHT STARTS OUT WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH FOLLOWED
BY UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS
WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE SNOW SHOWERS AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN
WITH FAIR WEATHER AND COLD TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF THE
WEEKEND.

IT NOW APPEARS THAT A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
ON SUNDAY...BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING VERY STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS TO USHER IN A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR AND COLD
TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH THIS MESSAGE AND NAEFS ANOMALIES NOW SUPPORT THE GFS
TREND TOWARD THIS SOLUTION SO CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN THIS COLD
OUTBREAK.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1200 AM EST TUESDAY...

DEEP COASTAL LOW PRESSURE AREA THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS TAF VALID
CYCLE. THE MAIN EFFECTS OF THIS STORM WILL BE FOR THE BIG CITIES
IN THE NORTHEAST. FOR US...WE WILL DEAL WITH A COUPLE OF BANDS OF
SNOW...A DEFORMATION ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW
IMPACTING THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE PIEDMONT INCLUDING
LYH/DAN...WHILE IN THE WEST IS A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE
TRACKING SSE FROM THE OH/TN VALLEY TOWARD EASTERN TN/WESTERN
NC...THAT WILL MAINLY IMPACT EASTERN TN/FAR SOUTHWEST VA/NORTHWEST
NC OVERNIGHT/EARLY TUE. THIS WOULD PRINCIPALLY IMPACT TNB...BUT
COULD IMPACT LWB/BLF/BCB TO SOME EXTENT...SO HAVE INCLUDED -SN
WITH IFR- LIFR CIGS AND MVFR- IFR VSBYS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. IN
ADDITION...THERE WILL BE MVFR-IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST MOST
OF THE NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN WV...WITH MVFR CIGS REMAINING IN PLACE
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE.
WINDS NOW NW IN ALL AREAS WITH SPEEDS 8-12KTS AND GUSTS 20-22KTS
MANY SITES. WINDS SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE
COASTAL LOW INTENSIFIES TO 9-13KTS WITH GUSTS 17-25KTS. AS THE LOW
PULLS NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE DAY TUE...WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE...BUT AT LEAST LOW END GUSTS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE A QUIET DAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TAF LOCATIONS. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM
ARRIVES ON THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CIGS AND
VSBYS...WITH A CHANCE FOR -SHRA...-SHSN IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
HINTON ALL HAZARDS RADIO...162.425MHZ WAS OFF THE AIR THIS
MORNING. TECHNICIANS INDICATE THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF TREE DAMAGE
FROM ICE IN THE AREA AND THE RADIO WILL CONTINUE EXPERIENCE
INTERMITTENT OUTAGES DUE TO POWER INTERRUPTIONS IN THE AREA.

THE ROANOKE TRANSMITTER...POOR MOUNTAIN 162.475 MHZ...IS ALSO
EXPERIENCING PROBLEMS WITH INTERMITTENT OUTAGES. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS EXIST ON POOR MOUNTAIN WITH THE POWER BEING INTERRUPTED
BY TREE DAMAGE FROM ICE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ015.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...MBS/PM
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...PM/RAB
EQUIPMENT...PM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 270528
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1228 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER VIRGINIA WILL DEVELOP INTO A MAJOR WINTER STORM
AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THIS STORM WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 715 PM EST MONDAY...

NO CHANGES PLANNED TO CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES.

AREA RADARS SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
ALONG A COLD FRONT BEING ENHANCED A BIT BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE. MESO MODELS SEEM TO HAVE BEEN HANDLING THE EVOLUTION
OF THIS WELL AND INDICATE IT WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS IT
MOVES INTO THE PIEDMONT. THEREFORE WILL BE LOWERING POPS OUT EAST.
EXPECT THE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE IN THE BLUSTERY NW
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...AND A MORE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE DIVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF
THE UPPER TROF SHOULD ENERGIZE THE ACTIVITY FROM THE NORTH
CAROLINA MTNS UP INTO THE GRAYSON HIGHLANDS WHERE THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH NOON TOMORROW.

PREVIOUS AFD...

LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY PASSING OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA WITH
UPPER TROF AXIS AND COLDER AIR SPILLING OVER THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND
THIS COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CAUSE FALLING TEMPERATURES FARTHER
EAST AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY
DROPPED INTO THE 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS. READINGS IN THE 40S WERE
FOUND OVER THE PIEDMONT OF NC AND INTO SOUTHSIDE VA...BUT THESE
NUMBERS WILL TAKE A TUMBLE TONIGHT.

THROUGH 4PM TODAY...LITTLE OR NO SNOW HAD ACCUMULATED ANYWHERE
WITHING THE CWA...WITH MAINLY A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND RAIN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AS TEMPERATURES FALL
THIS EVENING...ANY LINGERING RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW. THE
DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE WV HIGHLANDS
WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. LATER TONIGHT THERE WILL BE A SECONDARY SURGE OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE
NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ACCUMULATING
SNOW FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA HIGH COUNTRY AND MOUNT ROGERS IN
VIRGINIA. SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO COME INTO PLAY
LATE TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW 20 DEG F...WILDING 2 TO 1.
AS SUCH...THINK IT IS FEASIBLE TO SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW OVER
THE NC HIGH COUNTRY...POSSIBLY MORE AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 4000 FT.

OVERALL THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A BIG SNOW PRODUCER FOR
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE MAIN MEDIA FOCUS WILL BE ON COASTAL
NEW ENGLAND WHERE THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL WRAP UP INTO A
MAJOR WINTER STORM. FOR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WE GET TO DEAL
WITH THE BACKLASH WINDS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. THEIR IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE COASTAL STORM TO
PENETRATE AS FAR SOUTH AS OUR NORTHEASTERN CWA LATE TONIGHT...SO
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AS THERE MAY BE A NEED FOR
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES FOR AREAS NORTHEAST OF LYNCHBURG...
SPECIFICALLY APPOMATTOX...BUCKINGHAM AND POINTS NORTH AND EAST.

EVEN THOUGH WE ARE NOT ADVERTISING MUCH PRECIP WITHIN OUR LOCAL
FORECAST AREA...THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS VERY DYNAMIC...LOTS OF
ENERGY ALOFT THAT WILL CAUSE THIS STORM TO DEEPEN QUICKLY AS IT
MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. HAVE EVEN SEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
WITHIN THE SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT TODAY WHICH IS
AN INDICATOR OF HOW UNSTABLE THIS ATMOSPHERE IS BECOMING AND THE
POTENTIAL ENERGY THAT IS BUILDING UP FOR THIS THING TO FEED OFF OF
ONCE IT GETS EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND CERTAINLY SETTING THE
STAGE FOR COASTAL BOMBOGENESIS TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLING WITH QPF...AND IT WAS A BIT INTERESTING TO SEE ALL THE
QPF THE GFS MODEL PAINTING OVER OUR CWA THIS MORNING...YET NOT
MUCH WAS OCCURRING...CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN THE MODEL. WHAT REALLY
MADE IT HUMOROUS WAS THE MODEL THEN TOOK THE 4-6 TENTHS OF AN INCH
OF QPF AND CONVERTED IT TO ALL SNOW. ANYONE ISSUING FORECASTS AND
BLINDLY FOLLOWING GUIDANCE THIS MORNING WOULD HAVE THEN
EXPERIENCED A GOOD TASTE OF METEOROLOGICAL/MODEL CANCER...A
GARBAGE IN...GARBAGE OUT SORT OF FORECAST.

QPF ISSUES ASIDE...THE IMPACT FROM THIS STORM FOR OUR LOCAL AREA
WILL BE MINOR COMPARED TO OUR NEIGHBORS TO THE NORTH. I.E. NOTHING
WE HAVN`T SEE BEFORE. IN SUMMARY...A PERIOD OF SNOW IS LIKELY FOR
OUR MOUNTAINS TONIGHT WITH FLURRIES AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
LINGERING INTO TUESDAY. IT WILL BECOME BLUSTERY WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 20MPH...AND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH. A 40 MPH GUST
OVER THE NC/VA/WV HIGHLANDS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. COLDER AIR
SPILLING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS...TO NEAR 30 IN THE PIEDMONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE ON TUESDAY...REMAINING IN THE
20S MOUNTAINS...AND 30S TO NO MORE THAN 40 EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EST MONDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT OUR REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE WITHIN A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST. NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH A ORIGIN ACROSS LAKE
ERIE...WILL BRING MOISTURE UPSLOPE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS...SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH
CAROLINA. ANTICIPATE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ALONG THE PREFERRED
WESTERN SLOPES. AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATEST IN WESTERN GREENBRIER
COUNTY WHERE LESS THAN INCH OF NEW MEASURABLE SNOW IS EXPECTED.
ELSEWHERE...THE SNOW WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF FLURRIES...OR
ACCUMULATING SNOW THAT PRODUCES A DUSTING ON SURFACES. WINDS WILL
GUST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH LESSER
MAGNITUDES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

BY WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE AREA AND LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND VEER MORE NORTHERLY...THUS TURNING OFF
THE UPSLOPE SNOW MACHINE. ANTICIPATE A TREND TOWARD LITTLE OR NO
CLOUD COVER AND WEAKENING WINDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION WHILE OUR NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM HEADS
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOOK FOR WINDS TO BACK
SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD...ALONG WITH AN
ONSET OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. CLOUD COVER WILL START TO INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO THAT BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
REGION. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE IN THE WEST BY
MIDDAY THURSDAY AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM HEADS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS AT THIS TIME TO BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX
IN THE WEST. AS PRECIPITATION SPREADS EAST DURING THE...MILDER AIR
WILL ALLOW FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION
TO PLAIN RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA ONCE WARM AIR ADVECTION STARTS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EST MONDAY...

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO MUCH BELOW THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...ALONG WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY.

UPPER LEVELS WILL BE EVOLVING TO MORE OF A DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM.
THE LATEST INDICATIONS POINT TO A COLDER MORE AMPLIFIED EASTERN TROF
DEVELOPING AS PER THE ECMWF...AND SPLIT FLOW OUT WEST WITH A RIDGE
FOR THE PACIFIC NW AND A CUTOFF LOW REGENERATING OVER THE BAJA
PENINSULA.

THURSDAY NIGHT STARTS OUT WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH FOLLOWED
BY UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS
WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE SNOW SHOWERS AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN
WITH FAIR WEATHER AND COLD TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF THE
WEEKEND.

IT NOW APPEARS THAT A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
ON SUNDAY...BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING VERY STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS TO USHER IN A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR AND COLD
TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH THIS MESSAGE AND NAEFS ANOMALIES NOW SUPPORT THE GFS
TREND TOWARD THIS SOLUTION SO CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN THIS COLD
OUTBREAK.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1200 AM EST TUESDAY...

DEEP COASTAL LOW PRESSURE AREA THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS TAF VALID
CYCLE. THE MAIN EFFECTS OF THIS STORM WILL BE FOR THE BIG CITIES
IN THE NORTHEAST. FOR US...WE WILL DEAL WITH A COUPLE OF BANDS OF
SNOW...A DEFORMATION ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW
IMPACTING THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE PIEDMONT INCLUDING
LYH/DAN...WHILE IN THE WEST IS A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE
TRACKING SSE FROM THE OH/TN VALLEY TOWARD EASTERN TN/WESTERN
NC...THAT WILL MAINLY IMPACT EASTERN TN/FAR SOUTHWEST VA/NORTHWEST
NC OVERNIGHT/EARLY TUE. THIS WOULD PRINCIPALLY IMPACT TNB...BUT
COULD IMPACT LWB/BLF/BCB TO SOME EXTENT...SO HAVE INCLUDED -SN
WITH IFR- LIFR CIGS AND MVFR- IFR VSBYS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. IN
ADDITION...THERE WILL BE MVFR-IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST MOST
OF THE NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN WV...WITH MVFR CIGS REMAINING IN PLACE
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE.
WINDS NOW NW IN ALL AREAS WITH SPEEDS 8-12KTS AND GUSTS 20-22KTS
MANY SITES. WINDS SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE
COASTAL LOW INTENSIFIES TO 9-13KTS WITH GUSTS 17-25KTS. AS THE LOW
PULLS NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE DAY TUE...WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE...BUT AT LEAST LOW END GUSTS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE A QUIET DAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TAF LOCATIONS. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM
ARRIVES ON THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CIGS AND
VSBYS...WITH A CHANCE FOR -SHRA...-SHSN IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
HINTON ALL HAZARDS RADIO...162.425MHZ WAS OFF THE AIR THIS
MORNING. TECHNICIANS INDICATE THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF TREE DAMAGE
FROM ICE IN THE AREA AND THE RADIO WILL CONTINUE EXPERIENCE
INTERMITTENT OUTAGES DUE TO POWER INTERRUPTIONS IN THE AREA.

THE ROANOKE TRANSMITTER...POOR MOUNTAIN 162.475 MHZ...IS ALSO
EXPERIENCING PROBLEMS WITH INTERMITTENT OUTAGES. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS EXIST ON POOR MOUNTAIN WITH THE POWER BEING INTERRUPTED
BY TREE DAMAGE FROM ICE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ015.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...MBS/PM
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...PM/RAB
EQUIPMENT...PM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 270528
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1228 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER VIRGINIA WILL DEVELOP INTO A MAJOR WINTER STORM
AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THIS STORM WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 715 PM EST MONDAY...

NO CHANGES PLANNED TO CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES.

AREA RADARS SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
ALONG A COLD FRONT BEING ENHANCED A BIT BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE. MESO MODELS SEEM TO HAVE BEEN HANDLING THE EVOLUTION
OF THIS WELL AND INDICATE IT WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS IT
MOVES INTO THE PIEDMONT. THEREFORE WILL BE LOWERING POPS OUT EAST.
EXPECT THE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE IN THE BLUSTERY NW
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...AND A MORE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE DIVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF
THE UPPER TROF SHOULD ENERGIZE THE ACTIVITY FROM THE NORTH
CAROLINA MTNS UP INTO THE GRAYSON HIGHLANDS WHERE THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH NOON TOMORROW.

PREVIOUS AFD...

LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY PASSING OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA WITH
UPPER TROF AXIS AND COLDER AIR SPILLING OVER THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND
THIS COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CAUSE FALLING TEMPERATURES FARTHER
EAST AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY
DROPPED INTO THE 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS. READINGS IN THE 40S WERE
FOUND OVER THE PIEDMONT OF NC AND INTO SOUTHSIDE VA...BUT THESE
NUMBERS WILL TAKE A TUMBLE TONIGHT.

THROUGH 4PM TODAY...LITTLE OR NO SNOW HAD ACCUMULATED ANYWHERE
WITHING THE CWA...WITH MAINLY A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND RAIN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AS TEMPERATURES FALL
THIS EVENING...ANY LINGERING RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW. THE
DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE WV HIGHLANDS
WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. LATER TONIGHT THERE WILL BE A SECONDARY SURGE OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE
NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ACCUMULATING
SNOW FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA HIGH COUNTRY AND MOUNT ROGERS IN
VIRGINIA. SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO COME INTO PLAY
LATE TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW 20 DEG F...WILDING 2 TO 1.
AS SUCH...THINK IT IS FEASIBLE TO SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW OVER
THE NC HIGH COUNTRY...POSSIBLY MORE AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 4000 FT.

OVERALL THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A BIG SNOW PRODUCER FOR
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE MAIN MEDIA FOCUS WILL BE ON COASTAL
NEW ENGLAND WHERE THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL WRAP UP INTO A
MAJOR WINTER STORM. FOR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WE GET TO DEAL
WITH THE BACKLASH WINDS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. THEIR IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE COASTAL STORM TO
PENETRATE AS FAR SOUTH AS OUR NORTHEASTERN CWA LATE TONIGHT...SO
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AS THERE MAY BE A NEED FOR
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES FOR AREAS NORTHEAST OF LYNCHBURG...
SPECIFICALLY APPOMATTOX...BUCKINGHAM AND POINTS NORTH AND EAST.

EVEN THOUGH WE ARE NOT ADVERTISING MUCH PRECIP WITHIN OUR LOCAL
FORECAST AREA...THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS VERY DYNAMIC...LOTS OF
ENERGY ALOFT THAT WILL CAUSE THIS STORM TO DEEPEN QUICKLY AS IT
MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. HAVE EVEN SEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
WITHIN THE SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT TODAY WHICH IS
AN INDICATOR OF HOW UNSTABLE THIS ATMOSPHERE IS BECOMING AND THE
POTENTIAL ENERGY THAT IS BUILDING UP FOR THIS THING TO FEED OFF OF
ONCE IT GETS EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND CERTAINLY SETTING THE
STAGE FOR COASTAL BOMBOGENESIS TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLING WITH QPF...AND IT WAS A BIT INTERESTING TO SEE ALL THE
QPF THE GFS MODEL PAINTING OVER OUR CWA THIS MORNING...YET NOT
MUCH WAS OCCURRING...CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN THE MODEL. WHAT REALLY
MADE IT HUMOROUS WAS THE MODEL THEN TOOK THE 4-6 TENTHS OF AN INCH
OF QPF AND CONVERTED IT TO ALL SNOW. ANYONE ISSUING FORECASTS AND
BLINDLY FOLLOWING GUIDANCE THIS MORNING WOULD HAVE THEN
EXPERIENCED A GOOD TASTE OF METEOROLOGICAL/MODEL CANCER...A
GARBAGE IN...GARBAGE OUT SORT OF FORECAST.

QPF ISSUES ASIDE...THE IMPACT FROM THIS STORM FOR OUR LOCAL AREA
WILL BE MINOR COMPARED TO OUR NEIGHBORS TO THE NORTH. I.E. NOTHING
WE HAVN`T SEE BEFORE. IN SUMMARY...A PERIOD OF SNOW IS LIKELY FOR
OUR MOUNTAINS TONIGHT WITH FLURRIES AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
LINGERING INTO TUESDAY. IT WILL BECOME BLUSTERY WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 20MPH...AND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH. A 40 MPH GUST
OVER THE NC/VA/WV HIGHLANDS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. COLDER AIR
SPILLING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS...TO NEAR 30 IN THE PIEDMONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE ON TUESDAY...REMAINING IN THE
20S MOUNTAINS...AND 30S TO NO MORE THAN 40 EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EST MONDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT OUR REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE WITHIN A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST. NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH A ORIGIN ACROSS LAKE
ERIE...WILL BRING MOISTURE UPSLOPE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS...SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH
CAROLINA. ANTICIPATE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ALONG THE PREFERRED
WESTERN SLOPES. AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATEST IN WESTERN GREENBRIER
COUNTY WHERE LESS THAN INCH OF NEW MEASURABLE SNOW IS EXPECTED.
ELSEWHERE...THE SNOW WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF FLURRIES...OR
ACCUMULATING SNOW THAT PRODUCES A DUSTING ON SURFACES. WINDS WILL
GUST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH LESSER
MAGNITUDES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

BY WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE AREA AND LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND VEER MORE NORTHERLY...THUS TURNING OFF
THE UPSLOPE SNOW MACHINE. ANTICIPATE A TREND TOWARD LITTLE OR NO
CLOUD COVER AND WEAKENING WINDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION WHILE OUR NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM HEADS
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOOK FOR WINDS TO BACK
SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD...ALONG WITH AN
ONSET OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. CLOUD COVER WILL START TO INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO THAT BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
REGION. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE IN THE WEST BY
MIDDAY THURSDAY AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM HEADS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS AT THIS TIME TO BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX
IN THE WEST. AS PRECIPITATION SPREADS EAST DURING THE...MILDER AIR
WILL ALLOW FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION
TO PLAIN RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA ONCE WARM AIR ADVECTION STARTS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EST MONDAY...

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO MUCH BELOW THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...ALONG WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY.

UPPER LEVELS WILL BE EVOLVING TO MORE OF A DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM.
THE LATEST INDICATIONS POINT TO A COLDER MORE AMPLIFIED EASTERN TROF
DEVELOPING AS PER THE ECMWF...AND SPLIT FLOW OUT WEST WITH A RIDGE
FOR THE PACIFIC NW AND A CUTOFF LOW REGENERATING OVER THE BAJA
PENINSULA.

THURSDAY NIGHT STARTS OUT WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH FOLLOWED
BY UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS
WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE SNOW SHOWERS AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN
WITH FAIR WEATHER AND COLD TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF THE
WEEKEND.

IT NOW APPEARS THAT A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
ON SUNDAY...BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING VERY STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS TO USHER IN A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR AND COLD
TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH THIS MESSAGE AND NAEFS ANOMALIES NOW SUPPORT THE GFS
TREND TOWARD THIS SOLUTION SO CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN THIS COLD
OUTBREAK.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1200 AM EST TUESDAY...

DEEP COASTAL LOW PRESSURE AREA THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS TAF VALID
CYCLE. THE MAIN EFFECTS OF THIS STORM WILL BE FOR THE BIG CITIES
IN THE NORTHEAST. FOR US...WE WILL DEAL WITH A COUPLE OF BANDS OF
SNOW...A DEFORMATION ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW
IMPACTING THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE PIEDMONT INCLUDING
LYH/DAN...WHILE IN THE WEST IS A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE
TRACKING SSE FROM THE OH/TN VALLEY TOWARD EASTERN TN/WESTERN
NC...THAT WILL MAINLY IMPACT EASTERN TN/FAR SOUTHWEST VA/NORTHWEST
NC OVERNIGHT/EARLY TUE. THIS WOULD PRINCIPALLY IMPACT TNB...BUT
COULD IMPACT LWB/BLF/BCB TO SOME EXTENT...SO HAVE INCLUDED -SN
WITH IFR- LIFR CIGS AND MVFR- IFR VSBYS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. IN
ADDITION...THERE WILL BE MVFR-IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST MOST
OF THE NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN WV...WITH MVFR CIGS REMAINING IN PLACE
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE.
WINDS NOW NW IN ALL AREAS WITH SPEEDS 8-12KTS AND GUSTS 20-22KTS
MANY SITES. WINDS SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE
COASTAL LOW INTENSIFIES TO 9-13KTS WITH GUSTS 17-25KTS. AS THE LOW
PULLS NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE DAY TUE...WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE...BUT AT LEAST LOW END GUSTS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE A QUIET DAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TAF LOCATIONS. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM
ARRIVES ON THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CIGS AND
VSBYS...WITH A CHANCE FOR -SHRA...-SHSN IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
HINTON ALL HAZARDS RADIO...162.425MHZ WAS OFF THE AIR THIS
MORNING. TECHNICIANS INDICATE THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF TREE DAMAGE
FROM ICE IN THE AREA AND THE RADIO WILL CONTINUE EXPERIENCE
INTERMITTENT OUTAGES DUE TO POWER INTERRUPTIONS IN THE AREA.

THE ROANOKE TRANSMITTER...POOR MOUNTAIN 162.475 MHZ...IS ALSO
EXPERIENCING PROBLEMS WITH INTERMITTENT OUTAGES. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS EXIST ON POOR MOUNTAIN WITH THE POWER BEING INTERRUPTED
BY TREE DAMAGE FROM ICE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ015.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...MBS/PM
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...PM/RAB
EQUIPMENT...PM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 270528
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1228 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER VIRGINIA WILL DEVELOP INTO A MAJOR WINTER STORM
AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THIS STORM WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 715 PM EST MONDAY...

NO CHANGES PLANNED TO CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES.

AREA RADARS SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
ALONG A COLD FRONT BEING ENHANCED A BIT BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE. MESO MODELS SEEM TO HAVE BEEN HANDLING THE EVOLUTION
OF THIS WELL AND INDICATE IT WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS IT
MOVES INTO THE PIEDMONT. THEREFORE WILL BE LOWERING POPS OUT EAST.
EXPECT THE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE IN THE BLUSTERY NW
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...AND A MORE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE DIVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF
THE UPPER TROF SHOULD ENERGIZE THE ACTIVITY FROM THE NORTH
CAROLINA MTNS UP INTO THE GRAYSON HIGHLANDS WHERE THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH NOON TOMORROW.

PREVIOUS AFD...

LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY PASSING OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA WITH
UPPER TROF AXIS AND COLDER AIR SPILLING OVER THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND
THIS COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CAUSE FALLING TEMPERATURES FARTHER
EAST AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY
DROPPED INTO THE 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS. READINGS IN THE 40S WERE
FOUND OVER THE PIEDMONT OF NC AND INTO SOUTHSIDE VA...BUT THESE
NUMBERS WILL TAKE A TUMBLE TONIGHT.

THROUGH 4PM TODAY...LITTLE OR NO SNOW HAD ACCUMULATED ANYWHERE
WITHING THE CWA...WITH MAINLY A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND RAIN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AS TEMPERATURES FALL
THIS EVENING...ANY LINGERING RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW. THE
DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE WV HIGHLANDS
WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. LATER TONIGHT THERE WILL BE A SECONDARY SURGE OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE
NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ACCUMULATING
SNOW FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA HIGH COUNTRY AND MOUNT ROGERS IN
VIRGINIA. SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO COME INTO PLAY
LATE TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW 20 DEG F...WILDING 2 TO 1.
AS SUCH...THINK IT IS FEASIBLE TO SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW OVER
THE NC HIGH COUNTRY...POSSIBLY MORE AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 4000 FT.

OVERALL THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A BIG SNOW PRODUCER FOR
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE MAIN MEDIA FOCUS WILL BE ON COASTAL
NEW ENGLAND WHERE THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL WRAP UP INTO A
MAJOR WINTER STORM. FOR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WE GET TO DEAL
WITH THE BACKLASH WINDS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. THEIR IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE COASTAL STORM TO
PENETRATE AS FAR SOUTH AS OUR NORTHEASTERN CWA LATE TONIGHT...SO
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AS THERE MAY BE A NEED FOR
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES FOR AREAS NORTHEAST OF LYNCHBURG...
SPECIFICALLY APPOMATTOX...BUCKINGHAM AND POINTS NORTH AND EAST.

EVEN THOUGH WE ARE NOT ADVERTISING MUCH PRECIP WITHIN OUR LOCAL
FORECAST AREA...THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS VERY DYNAMIC...LOTS OF
ENERGY ALOFT THAT WILL CAUSE THIS STORM TO DEEPEN QUICKLY AS IT
MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. HAVE EVEN SEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
WITHIN THE SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT TODAY WHICH IS
AN INDICATOR OF HOW UNSTABLE THIS ATMOSPHERE IS BECOMING AND THE
POTENTIAL ENERGY THAT IS BUILDING UP FOR THIS THING TO FEED OFF OF
ONCE IT GETS EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND CERTAINLY SETTING THE
STAGE FOR COASTAL BOMBOGENESIS TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLING WITH QPF...AND IT WAS A BIT INTERESTING TO SEE ALL THE
QPF THE GFS MODEL PAINTING OVER OUR CWA THIS MORNING...YET NOT
MUCH WAS OCCURRING...CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN THE MODEL. WHAT REALLY
MADE IT HUMOROUS WAS THE MODEL THEN TOOK THE 4-6 TENTHS OF AN INCH
OF QPF AND CONVERTED IT TO ALL SNOW. ANYONE ISSUING FORECASTS AND
BLINDLY FOLLOWING GUIDANCE THIS MORNING WOULD HAVE THEN
EXPERIENCED A GOOD TASTE OF METEOROLOGICAL/MODEL CANCER...A
GARBAGE IN...GARBAGE OUT SORT OF FORECAST.

QPF ISSUES ASIDE...THE IMPACT FROM THIS STORM FOR OUR LOCAL AREA
WILL BE MINOR COMPARED TO OUR NEIGHBORS TO THE NORTH. I.E. NOTHING
WE HAVN`T SEE BEFORE. IN SUMMARY...A PERIOD OF SNOW IS LIKELY FOR
OUR MOUNTAINS TONIGHT WITH FLURRIES AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
LINGERING INTO TUESDAY. IT WILL BECOME BLUSTERY WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 20MPH...AND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH. A 40 MPH GUST
OVER THE NC/VA/WV HIGHLANDS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. COLDER AIR
SPILLING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS...TO NEAR 30 IN THE PIEDMONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE ON TUESDAY...REMAINING IN THE
20S MOUNTAINS...AND 30S TO NO MORE THAN 40 EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EST MONDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT OUR REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE WITHIN A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST. NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH A ORIGIN ACROSS LAKE
ERIE...WILL BRING MOISTURE UPSLOPE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS...SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH
CAROLINA. ANTICIPATE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ALONG THE PREFERRED
WESTERN SLOPES. AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATEST IN WESTERN GREENBRIER
COUNTY WHERE LESS THAN INCH OF NEW MEASURABLE SNOW IS EXPECTED.
ELSEWHERE...THE SNOW WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF FLURRIES...OR
ACCUMULATING SNOW THAT PRODUCES A DUSTING ON SURFACES. WINDS WILL
GUST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH LESSER
MAGNITUDES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

BY WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE AREA AND LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND VEER MORE NORTHERLY...THUS TURNING OFF
THE UPSLOPE SNOW MACHINE. ANTICIPATE A TREND TOWARD LITTLE OR NO
CLOUD COVER AND WEAKENING WINDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION WHILE OUR NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM HEADS
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOOK FOR WINDS TO BACK
SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD...ALONG WITH AN
ONSET OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. CLOUD COVER WILL START TO INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO THAT BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
REGION. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE IN THE WEST BY
MIDDAY THURSDAY AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM HEADS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS AT THIS TIME TO BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX
IN THE WEST. AS PRECIPITATION SPREADS EAST DURING THE...MILDER AIR
WILL ALLOW FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION
TO PLAIN RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA ONCE WARM AIR ADVECTION STARTS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EST MONDAY...

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO MUCH BELOW THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...ALONG WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY.

UPPER LEVELS WILL BE EVOLVING TO MORE OF A DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM.
THE LATEST INDICATIONS POINT TO A COLDER MORE AMPLIFIED EASTERN TROF
DEVELOPING AS PER THE ECMWF...AND SPLIT FLOW OUT WEST WITH A RIDGE
FOR THE PACIFIC NW AND A CUTOFF LOW REGENERATING OVER THE BAJA
PENINSULA.

THURSDAY NIGHT STARTS OUT WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH FOLLOWED
BY UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS
WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE SNOW SHOWERS AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN
WITH FAIR WEATHER AND COLD TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF THE
WEEKEND.

IT NOW APPEARS THAT A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
ON SUNDAY...BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING VERY STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS TO USHER IN A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR AND COLD
TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH THIS MESSAGE AND NAEFS ANOMALIES NOW SUPPORT THE GFS
TREND TOWARD THIS SOLUTION SO CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN THIS COLD
OUTBREAK.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1200 AM EST TUESDAY...

DEEP COASTAL LOW PRESSURE AREA THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS TAF VALID
CYCLE. THE MAIN EFFECTS OF THIS STORM WILL BE FOR THE BIG CITIES
IN THE NORTHEAST. FOR US...WE WILL DEAL WITH A COUPLE OF BANDS OF
SNOW...A DEFORMATION ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW
IMPACTING THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE PIEDMONT INCLUDING
LYH/DAN...WHILE IN THE WEST IS A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE
TRACKING SSE FROM THE OH/TN VALLEY TOWARD EASTERN TN/WESTERN
NC...THAT WILL MAINLY IMPACT EASTERN TN/FAR SOUTHWEST VA/NORTHWEST
NC OVERNIGHT/EARLY TUE. THIS WOULD PRINCIPALLY IMPACT TNB...BUT
COULD IMPACT LWB/BLF/BCB TO SOME EXTENT...SO HAVE INCLUDED -SN
WITH IFR- LIFR CIGS AND MVFR- IFR VSBYS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. IN
ADDITION...THERE WILL BE MVFR-IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST MOST
OF THE NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN WV...WITH MVFR CIGS REMAINING IN PLACE
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE.
WINDS NOW NW IN ALL AREAS WITH SPEEDS 8-12KTS AND GUSTS 20-22KTS
MANY SITES. WINDS SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE
COASTAL LOW INTENSIFIES TO 9-13KTS WITH GUSTS 17-25KTS. AS THE LOW
PULLS NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE DAY TUE...WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE...BUT AT LEAST LOW END GUSTS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE A QUIET DAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TAF LOCATIONS. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM
ARRIVES ON THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CIGS AND
VSBYS...WITH A CHANCE FOR -SHRA...-SHSN IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
HINTON ALL HAZARDS RADIO...162.425MHZ WAS OFF THE AIR THIS
MORNING. TECHNICIANS INDICATE THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF TREE DAMAGE
FROM ICE IN THE AREA AND THE RADIO WILL CONTINUE EXPERIENCE
INTERMITTENT OUTAGES DUE TO POWER INTERRUPTIONS IN THE AREA.

THE ROANOKE TRANSMITTER...POOR MOUNTAIN 162.475 MHZ...IS ALSO
EXPERIENCING PROBLEMS WITH INTERMITTENT OUTAGES. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS EXIST ON POOR MOUNTAIN WITH THE POWER BEING INTERRUPTED
BY TREE DAMAGE FROM ICE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ015.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...MBS/PM
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...PM/RAB
EQUIPMENT...PM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270300
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1000 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVERNIGHT AS IT
TRACKS NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND
COASTS. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON
WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPDATE AS OF 10 PM EST...
NO CHANGES TO THE INHERITED WSW HEADLINES THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN SEEING MORE THAN AN INCH OF SNOW WITHIN THE ENTIRE
WSW IS LOW. LATEST OPERATIONAL 00Z NAM REMAINS LESS THAN IMPRESSED
WITH POTENTIAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS THRU TUESDAY MORNING. OUTSIDE
OF THE BATCH OF RAIN MOVING SOUTH OVER THE CHES BAY/EASTERN SHORE
ATTM...THE NAM AND LATEST HRRR ARE VOID OF ANY OTHER ORGANIZED
AREAS OF PCPN. AT LEAST WE HAVE BEGUN TO SEE SIGNS OF LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/I-95 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING AS
COLDER AIR ALOFT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH...CONTINUES TO MOVE IN. HOWEVER...OTHER THAN COUNTING ON
THE UPPER TROUGH ITSELF TO GENERATE MEANINGFUL SNOW SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT/TUES MORNING...THE AREA WILL REMAIN TO FAR REMOVED FROM
THE DEEPENING SFC LOW OFFSHORE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW. HAVE CONTINUED TO
TRIM SNOW ACCUMULATION WORDING IN THE WSW`S THIS EVENING...AS A
COATING/HALF INCH OF SNOW MAY BE ABOUT THE WORST CASE SCENARIO
MOST PLACES. WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY 2-3" ON THE LOWER MD EASTERN
SHORE CLOSEST TO THE SFC LOW...BUT A FURTHER REDUCTION IN SNOW
TOTALS MAY BE NECESSARY ON THE NEXT SHIFT. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPR
20S NW TO THE MID 30S SE. GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATER
TUES MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CHANGE WAS TO START TRIMMING BACK ON INHERITED
WINTER WX ADVSRYS AS THE LIKELIHOOD FOR 1-3IN OF SNOW HAS DECREASED
OVER MANY AREAS. WPC AND MUCH OF 12Z GUIDANCE SUPPORT THIS
IDEA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADVSRY-LEVEL SNOWFALL STILL OVER
THE LWR MD ERN SHORE WHERE 2-4IN IS PSBL. DO NOT THINK NORFOLK AND
RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE AOA 2IN...BUT WITH THE HEADLINE
ALREADY OUT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO AN INCH TO PSBLY CAUSE
SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...WILL KEEP THOSE AREAS
(AND AREAS N AND E) IN THE ADVSRY FOR NOW. ANOTHER ISSUE IS
TEMPS...WITH PARTS OF THE AREA STAYING JUST A TAD ABOVE FREEZING.
WILL UPDATE AS NEEDED THIS EVENG AND TNGT.

AS FOR PCPN...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDS DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS
ASIDE FM WORCESTER CNTY WHERE AN AREA OF RA HAS BEEN PERSISTENT.
BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES THIS EVENG AS SFC LO PRES DEVELOPS
OFFSHORE. POPS RANGE FM 40-50% SW TO 70-80% NE. THE RA WILL
TRANSITION TO A RA/SN MIX THEN SN FM NW TO SE TNGT. TOTAL QPF WILL
BE UP TO A QUARTER INCH. LO TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 20S FAR
NW TO MID 30S SE. PCPN WILL END FM W TO E ON TUE AS THE SFC LO
ADVANCES TOWARDS THE GULF OF ME AND NW CAA FLOW LEADS TO GUSTS TO
25-30 MPH NR THE CST AND LWR ERN SHORE. HI TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID
30S TO LWR 40S UNDER A CLOUDY-MSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED CSTL LO PULLS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AS SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W. EXPECT
DECREASING CLOUDS TUE NIGHT WITH NW WINDS. LO TEMPS WILL RANGE
THRU THE 20S...WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.
COOL TEMPS INTO WED AS WELL...WITH HIGHS ONLY RANGING FM THE MID
30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR 30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE.
DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH SIMILAR TEMPS AS TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE
MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST STATES SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A CHC OF RAIN IS IN
THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW PSBL FAR NRN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW AND THEN
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK MOVING FRONTAL
WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT TO SEA MONDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE
FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OFF THE MD/DE COAST...RAIN AND SNOW
ARE BEGINNING TO FALL ACROSS THE AREA. SNOWFALL WILL BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE AT THE TAF SITES EXCEPT AT SBY WHERE A 2 TO 4 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY MORNING.

SOLID IFR CONDS SHOULD HANG THROUGH TUE MORNING. PCPN WINDS DOWN
AND CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. NORTH WINDS
WILL PREVAIL...WITH GUSTS TO ~25KT AT TIMES TOWARD THE COAST.
WINDS TREND TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WED.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA HEADLINES FORECAST THRU WEDS.

LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED JUST OFF THE NC/VA COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THE LOW HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY...RESULTING IN AN UPTICK OF N-NE
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. BEGINNING TO SEE 20 KT GUSTS OVER THE
BAY/LOWER JAMES WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KT OVER THE NRN COASTAL
WATERS. SEAS HAVE RESPONDED...BUILDING TO 7 FT AT BUOY 44009. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP THRU LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS (GUSTS TO 30 KT) EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WATERS TONIGHT AS
THE LOW INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY AND LIFTS AWAY FROM THE COAST. LOW LEVEL
CAA ALSO INTENSIFIES. GALE CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN COASTAL WATERS...CLOSEST TO THE STRONGEST
GRADIENT WINDS AND CAA. SEAS BUILD TO 7 TO 12 FT IN THE NRN WATERS
AND 5 TO 8 FT IN THE SRN WATERS TONIGHT. AS THE LOW LIFTS
AWAY...FLOW BACKS TO THE NW...KEEPING HIGH SEAS FROM REACHING THE
BEACHES. NO HIGH SURF PLANNED ATTM. LITTLE CHANGE TUES AS STRONG NW
FLOW PERSISTS BTWN LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OH VALLEY. GALE CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE NRN COASTAL
WATERS THRU EARLY TUES EVENING...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 5-8 FT TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
FINALLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATE WEDS...ALLOWING WINDS TO
DIMINISH AOB 15 KT. SEAS SUBSIDE THRU WEDS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE WATERS THURS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT CLIPPER FRONT
SET TO CROSS THE WATERS THURS NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF STRONG NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS. TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST
TO REACH 1.5 TO 2.0 FT IN THE LOWER BAY AND 2.0 TO 2.5 FT FOR THE
COASTAL AREAS OF THE ERN SHORE. MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS ARE
ANTICIPATED AT OCEAN CITY INLET...WITH A WATER LEVEL OF 4.9 FT.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND DOWN FROM MODERATE FLOODING...WHICH
MAKES SENSE GIVEN A MORE NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND DIRECTION. THE
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY. WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS IN THE LOWER BAY...BUT WILL REACH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
HIGHEST ASTRO TIDE. ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGH ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOMALIES DROP OFF TUE NGT/WED AS THE LOW
LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ021>025.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ081-089-
     090-093.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ091-
     094>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ073>078-
     084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ063-064-
     070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>638-
     654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/MAS
NEAR TERM...JDM/MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270300
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1000 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVERNIGHT AS IT
TRACKS NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND
COASTS. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON
WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPDATE AS OF 10 PM EST...
NO CHANGES TO THE INHERITED WSW HEADLINES THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN SEEING MORE THAN AN INCH OF SNOW WITHIN THE ENTIRE
WSW IS LOW. LATEST OPERATIONAL 00Z NAM REMAINS LESS THAN IMPRESSED
WITH POTENTIAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS THRU TUESDAY MORNING. OUTSIDE
OF THE BATCH OF RAIN MOVING SOUTH OVER THE CHES BAY/EASTERN SHORE
ATTM...THE NAM AND LATEST HRRR ARE VOID OF ANY OTHER ORGANIZED
AREAS OF PCPN. AT LEAST WE HAVE BEGUN TO SEE SIGNS OF LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/I-95 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING AS
COLDER AIR ALOFT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH...CONTINUES TO MOVE IN. HOWEVER...OTHER THAN COUNTING ON
THE UPPER TROUGH ITSELF TO GENERATE MEANINGFUL SNOW SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT/TUES MORNING...THE AREA WILL REMAIN TO FAR REMOVED FROM
THE DEEPENING SFC LOW OFFSHORE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW. HAVE CONTINUED TO
TRIM SNOW ACCUMULATION WORDING IN THE WSW`S THIS EVENING...AS A
COATING/HALF INCH OF SNOW MAY BE ABOUT THE WORST CASE SCENARIO
MOST PLACES. WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY 2-3" ON THE LOWER MD EASTERN
SHORE CLOSEST TO THE SFC LOW...BUT A FURTHER REDUCTION IN SNOW
TOTALS MAY BE NECESSARY ON THE NEXT SHIFT. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPR
20S NW TO THE MID 30S SE. GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATER
TUES MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CHANGE WAS TO START TRIMMING BACK ON INHERITED
WINTER WX ADVSRYS AS THE LIKELIHOOD FOR 1-3IN OF SNOW HAS DECREASED
OVER MANY AREAS. WPC AND MUCH OF 12Z GUIDANCE SUPPORT THIS
IDEA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADVSRY-LEVEL SNOWFALL STILL OVER
THE LWR MD ERN SHORE WHERE 2-4IN IS PSBL. DO NOT THINK NORFOLK AND
RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE AOA 2IN...BUT WITH THE HEADLINE
ALREADY OUT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO AN INCH TO PSBLY CAUSE
SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...WILL KEEP THOSE AREAS
(AND AREAS N AND E) IN THE ADVSRY FOR NOW. ANOTHER ISSUE IS
TEMPS...WITH PARTS OF THE AREA STAYING JUST A TAD ABOVE FREEZING.
WILL UPDATE AS NEEDED THIS EVENG AND TNGT.

AS FOR PCPN...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDS DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS
ASIDE FM WORCESTER CNTY WHERE AN AREA OF RA HAS BEEN PERSISTENT.
BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES THIS EVENG AS SFC LO PRES DEVELOPS
OFFSHORE. POPS RANGE FM 40-50% SW TO 70-80% NE. THE RA WILL
TRANSITION TO A RA/SN MIX THEN SN FM NW TO SE TNGT. TOTAL QPF WILL
BE UP TO A QUARTER INCH. LO TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 20S FAR
NW TO MID 30S SE. PCPN WILL END FM W TO E ON TUE AS THE SFC LO
ADVANCES TOWARDS THE GULF OF ME AND NW CAA FLOW LEADS TO GUSTS TO
25-30 MPH NR THE CST AND LWR ERN SHORE. HI TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID
30S TO LWR 40S UNDER A CLOUDY-MSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED CSTL LO PULLS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AS SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W. EXPECT
DECREASING CLOUDS TUE NIGHT WITH NW WINDS. LO TEMPS WILL RANGE
THRU THE 20S...WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.
COOL TEMPS INTO WED AS WELL...WITH HIGHS ONLY RANGING FM THE MID
30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR 30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE.
DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH SIMILAR TEMPS AS TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE
MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST STATES SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A CHC OF RAIN IS IN
THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW PSBL FAR NRN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW AND THEN
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK MOVING FRONTAL
WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT TO SEA MONDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE
FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OFF THE MD/DE COAST...RAIN AND SNOW
ARE BEGINNING TO FALL ACROSS THE AREA. SNOWFALL WILL BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE AT THE TAF SITES EXCEPT AT SBY WHERE A 2 TO 4 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY MORNING.

SOLID IFR CONDS SHOULD HANG THROUGH TUE MORNING. PCPN WINDS DOWN
AND CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. NORTH WINDS
WILL PREVAIL...WITH GUSTS TO ~25KT AT TIMES TOWARD THE COAST.
WINDS TREND TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WED.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA HEADLINES FORECAST THRU WEDS.

LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED JUST OFF THE NC/VA COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THE LOW HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY...RESULTING IN AN UPTICK OF N-NE
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. BEGINNING TO SEE 20 KT GUSTS OVER THE
BAY/LOWER JAMES WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KT OVER THE NRN COASTAL
WATERS. SEAS HAVE RESPONDED...BUILDING TO 7 FT AT BUOY 44009. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP THRU LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS (GUSTS TO 30 KT) EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WATERS TONIGHT AS
THE LOW INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY AND LIFTS AWAY FROM THE COAST. LOW LEVEL
CAA ALSO INTENSIFIES. GALE CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN COASTAL WATERS...CLOSEST TO THE STRONGEST
GRADIENT WINDS AND CAA. SEAS BUILD TO 7 TO 12 FT IN THE NRN WATERS
AND 5 TO 8 FT IN THE SRN WATERS TONIGHT. AS THE LOW LIFTS
AWAY...FLOW BACKS TO THE NW...KEEPING HIGH SEAS FROM REACHING THE
BEACHES. NO HIGH SURF PLANNED ATTM. LITTLE CHANGE TUES AS STRONG NW
FLOW PERSISTS BTWN LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OH VALLEY. GALE CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE NRN COASTAL
WATERS THRU EARLY TUES EVENING...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 5-8 FT TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
FINALLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATE WEDS...ALLOWING WINDS TO
DIMINISH AOB 15 KT. SEAS SUBSIDE THRU WEDS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE WATERS THURS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT CLIPPER FRONT
SET TO CROSS THE WATERS THURS NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF STRONG NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS. TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST
TO REACH 1.5 TO 2.0 FT IN THE LOWER BAY AND 2.0 TO 2.5 FT FOR THE
COASTAL AREAS OF THE ERN SHORE. MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS ARE
ANTICIPATED AT OCEAN CITY INLET...WITH A WATER LEVEL OF 4.9 FT.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND DOWN FROM MODERATE FLOODING...WHICH
MAKES SENSE GIVEN A MORE NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND DIRECTION. THE
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY. WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS IN THE LOWER BAY...BUT WILL REACH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
HIGHEST ASTRO TIDE. ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGH ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOMALIES DROP OFF TUE NGT/WED AS THE LOW
LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ021>025.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ081-089-
     090-093.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ091-
     094>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ073>078-
     084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ063-064-
     070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>638-
     654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/MAS
NEAR TERM...JDM/MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ






000
FXUS61 KLWX 270229
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
929 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFFSHORE
AND TRACK NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM SWINGS THROUGH THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
COASTAL LOW IS RAPIDLY EAST OF THE DELMARVA THIS EVENING...WITH
PRESSURES FALLING 7 MB IN THE PAST 6 HOURS PER MSAS ANALYSIS. RADAR
BLOSSOMED THIS EVENING AS AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE DEVELOPED IN THE
INCREASING NE FLOW AROUND THE SFC LOW...AND THE REMNANT WAVE/FRONT
FROM THE CLIPPER LOW...AIDED BY THE OROGRAPHICS OF THE BLUE
RIDGE/CATOCTINS. INTENSITY OF THESE SNOW BANDS HAS BEEN VARIED AND
LOCALIZED. UNDER THE SMALLER SHOWERS...TOTALS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN
LESS THAN AN INCH...BUT DID RECEIVE A REPORT OF 3 INCHES IN
FREDERICK CO MD UNDER THE ENHANCED BAND. SYNOPTIC MODELS HAVE
DEPICTED THIS IN THE GENERAL SENSE...WITH THE RAP/HRRR GIVING A
LITTLE BETTER IDEA OF HOW THIS AREA OF SNOW WILL PIVOT AND WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE PEAK SNOW WILL BE THROUGH MIDNIGHT TO 2
AM...WITH A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND AND SE PIVOT THEREAFTER.
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THE TREND OF PREVIOUS
OBSERVATIONS...COMING IN ONE HALF TO ONE INCH SPURTS. THINK THE
WINTER WX ADVISORY GENERALLY COVERS THIS IDEA...BUT WILL MONITOR THE
PERSISTENCE OF THE PERSISTENT BAND IN THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF
THE AREA. CENTRAL/SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY STILL LOOKS MAINLY
DRY...AND ALTHOUGH FLURRIES IN THE CHO AREA...THINK MOST OF THE
STEADIER SNOWS STAY EAST. TEMPERATURES ARE NOW BELOW FREEZING IN
MANY AREAS...AND ROADS ARE QUICKLY BECOMING SLIPPERY WHERE SNOW
FALLS. RESIDUAL MOISTURE UNDERNEATH THE SNOW FROM EARLIER TODAY
WHICH FREEZES COULD LEAD TO DECEPTIVELY SLIPPERY CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE APLCNS WEAKENS AND GETS COMPLETELY
ABSORBED INTO THE DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE ATLC COAST....THE
SNOW POTENTIAL WILL SHUT DOWN QUICKLY HEADING INTO THE MID MRNG HRS
TUE. A LINGERING BAND MAY SET UP OVER THE CHES BAY/DELMARVA THAT
COULD INCH OVER INTO THE WRN SHORE MD COUNTIES BUT NOT LIKELY MUCH
FURTHER WEST OF THERE. CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO MIDDAY BUT THEY WILL
BE QUICKLY PUSHED TOWARD THE EAST BY A STRENGTHENING NW WINDS...
COURTESY OF THE INTENSE LOW WELL OFF TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. TEMPS
WILL ONLY BRIEFLY CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING TUE AFTN...BUT WIND CHILLS
WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE 20S/L30S FROM THE GUSTY AND DRIER NW FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
TIME FLIES - 4 YRS AGO TDA WAS ONE OF THE MOST INTENSE AFTN/EVE`S
OF WINTER WX XPRNCD HERE AS HVY SN/IP AT RUSH HR CAUSED THOUSANDS
OF CARS TO BE STRANDED ON AREA ROADS.

TUE NGT THRU WED NGT LOOKING LK A FAIRLY QUIET PD WXWISE. COLD
TEMPS WL BE THE KEY CONCERN - COLD AIR WL BE PUSHED INTO THE MID
ATLC AS INTENSE LOW PRES CAUSES BLZRD CONDS IN SRN NEW ENGLAND.
HIGH PRES WL BE BLDG INTO THE CWA.

LOWS TUE NGT PRIMARILY IN THE MU TEENS...L20S IN THE CITIES...
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE MTNS. HIGHS WED IN THE 30S...20S IN THE
HIGHLANDS. LOWS WED NGT FAIRLY SIMILAR TO TUE NGT.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
THURSDAY WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW
PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BRING TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE OUTLOOK AREA. SNOW WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE HIGHLANDS
THURSDAY MORNING AND AS PRECIPITATION MOVES EASTWARD AND TEMPS
RISE SNOW MAY TRANSITION TO RAIN. AT THIS TIME ACCUMULATIONS OF
LESS THAN AN INCH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA THURSDAY.
THE SFC LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES INTO FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HUDSON BAY THIS WEEKEND AND A COLD
FRONT MAY CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BANDS OF SNOW WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS EXCEPT CHO THROUGH THIS
EVENING. IFR VSBYS ARE LIKELY IN THE PERIODS OF HEAVIEST SNOW...AND
POSSIBLY BRIEFLY LOWER. CIGS WILL RESIDE EITHER SIDE OF 1000FT IN
THE METROS...A BIT HIGHER AT MRB. GUIDANCE VARIES ON WHETHER IFR
CIGS STAY LOCKED IN AT CHO OR GRADUALLY LIFT OVERNIGHT...REGARDLESS
THEY ARE LEAST LIKELY TO SEE ANY SUSTAINED SNOW OTHER THAN A PASSING
SHSN. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SNOW SHOULD BE ON A DIMINISHING
TREND AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT SOME BANDS MAY STILL BACK INTO THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY BWI/MTN. CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY
ON TUESDAY...POSSIBLY REACHING VFR BY MID AFTERNOON. N/NW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE
WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KT LIKELY.

VFR CONDS TUE NGT THRU WED NGT.

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION. SN OR RA WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WIDESPREAD SCA CONDS OCCURRING OVER THE WATERS...BUT GUSTS TO
GALES ARE STILL POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS AS
THE COASTAL LOW STRENGTHENS. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY INTO TUE
AFTN AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO AFFECT AREAS TO OUR NE...GRADUALLY
MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY.

SCA CONDS WL STILL BE XPRNCD TUE NGT AND WED...FINALLY DIMINISHING
WED NGT AS HIGH PRES MOVES OVR THE WATERS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY AND SCA WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ003-502.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ004>006-
     011-013-014-016>018-503>508.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ501.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ028-031-
     503-504.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ052>057-
     505-506.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ050>053-
     055-502-504>506.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ501-503.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ530>534-537>543.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ADS
PREVIOUS...GMS/WOODY!/HAS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 270229
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
929 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFFSHORE
AND TRACK NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM SWINGS THROUGH THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
COASTAL LOW IS RAPIDLY EAST OF THE DELMARVA THIS EVENING...WITH
PRESSURES FALLING 7 MB IN THE PAST 6 HOURS PER MSAS ANALYSIS. RADAR
BLOSSOMED THIS EVENING AS AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE DEVELOPED IN THE
INCREASING NE FLOW AROUND THE SFC LOW...AND THE REMNANT WAVE/FRONT
FROM THE CLIPPER LOW...AIDED BY THE OROGRAPHICS OF THE BLUE
RIDGE/CATOCTINS. INTENSITY OF THESE SNOW BANDS HAS BEEN VARIED AND
LOCALIZED. UNDER THE SMALLER SHOWERS...TOTALS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN
LESS THAN AN INCH...BUT DID RECEIVE A REPORT OF 3 INCHES IN
FREDERICK CO MD UNDER THE ENHANCED BAND. SYNOPTIC MODELS HAVE
DEPICTED THIS IN THE GENERAL SENSE...WITH THE RAP/HRRR GIVING A
LITTLE BETTER IDEA OF HOW THIS AREA OF SNOW WILL PIVOT AND WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE PEAK SNOW WILL BE THROUGH MIDNIGHT TO 2
AM...WITH A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND AND SE PIVOT THEREAFTER.
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THE TREND OF PREVIOUS
OBSERVATIONS...COMING IN ONE HALF TO ONE INCH SPURTS. THINK THE
WINTER WX ADVISORY GENERALLY COVERS THIS IDEA...BUT WILL MONITOR THE
PERSISTENCE OF THE PERSISTENT BAND IN THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF
THE AREA. CENTRAL/SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY STILL LOOKS MAINLY
DRY...AND ALTHOUGH FLURRIES IN THE CHO AREA...THINK MOST OF THE
STEADIER SNOWS STAY EAST. TEMPERATURES ARE NOW BELOW FREEZING IN
MANY AREAS...AND ROADS ARE QUICKLY BECOMING SLIPPERY WHERE SNOW
FALLS. RESIDUAL MOISTURE UNDERNEATH THE SNOW FROM EARLIER TODAY
WHICH FREEZES COULD LEAD TO DECEPTIVELY SLIPPERY CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE APLCNS WEAKENS AND GETS COMPLETELY
ABSORBED INTO THE DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE ATLC COAST....THE
SNOW POTENTIAL WILL SHUT DOWN QUICKLY HEADING INTO THE MID MRNG HRS
TUE. A LINGERING BAND MAY SET UP OVER THE CHES BAY/DELMARVA THAT
COULD INCH OVER INTO THE WRN SHORE MD COUNTIES BUT NOT LIKELY MUCH
FURTHER WEST OF THERE. CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO MIDDAY BUT THEY WILL
BE QUICKLY PUSHED TOWARD THE EAST BY A STRENGTHENING NW WINDS...
COURTESY OF THE INTENSE LOW WELL OFF TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. TEMPS
WILL ONLY BRIEFLY CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING TUE AFTN...BUT WIND CHILLS
WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE 20S/L30S FROM THE GUSTY AND DRIER NW FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
TIME FLIES - 4 YRS AGO TDA WAS ONE OF THE MOST INTENSE AFTN/EVE`S
OF WINTER WX XPRNCD HERE AS HVY SN/IP AT RUSH HR CAUSED THOUSANDS
OF CARS TO BE STRANDED ON AREA ROADS.

TUE NGT THRU WED NGT LOOKING LK A FAIRLY QUIET PD WXWISE. COLD
TEMPS WL BE THE KEY CONCERN - COLD AIR WL BE PUSHED INTO THE MID
ATLC AS INTENSE LOW PRES CAUSES BLZRD CONDS IN SRN NEW ENGLAND.
HIGH PRES WL BE BLDG INTO THE CWA.

LOWS TUE NGT PRIMARILY IN THE MU TEENS...L20S IN THE CITIES...
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE MTNS. HIGHS WED IN THE 30S...20S IN THE
HIGHLANDS. LOWS WED NGT FAIRLY SIMILAR TO TUE NGT.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
THURSDAY WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW
PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BRING TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE OUTLOOK AREA. SNOW WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE HIGHLANDS
THURSDAY MORNING AND AS PRECIPITATION MOVES EASTWARD AND TEMPS
RISE SNOW MAY TRANSITION TO RAIN. AT THIS TIME ACCUMULATIONS OF
LESS THAN AN INCH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA THURSDAY.
THE SFC LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES INTO FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HUDSON BAY THIS WEEKEND AND A COLD
FRONT MAY CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BANDS OF SNOW WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS EXCEPT CHO THROUGH THIS
EVENING. IFR VSBYS ARE LIKELY IN THE PERIODS OF HEAVIEST SNOW...AND
POSSIBLY BRIEFLY LOWER. CIGS WILL RESIDE EITHER SIDE OF 1000FT IN
THE METROS...A BIT HIGHER AT MRB. GUIDANCE VARIES ON WHETHER IFR
CIGS STAY LOCKED IN AT CHO OR GRADUALLY LIFT OVERNIGHT...REGARDLESS
THEY ARE LEAST LIKELY TO SEE ANY SUSTAINED SNOW OTHER THAN A PASSING
SHSN. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SNOW SHOULD BE ON A DIMINISHING
TREND AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT SOME BANDS MAY STILL BACK INTO THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY BWI/MTN. CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY
ON TUESDAY...POSSIBLY REACHING VFR BY MID AFTERNOON. N/NW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE
WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KT LIKELY.

VFR CONDS TUE NGT THRU WED NGT.

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION. SN OR RA WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WIDESPREAD SCA CONDS OCCURRING OVER THE WATERS...BUT GUSTS TO
GALES ARE STILL POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS AS
THE COASTAL LOW STRENGTHENS. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY INTO TUE
AFTN AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO AFFECT AREAS TO OUR NE...GRADUALLY
MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY.

SCA CONDS WL STILL BE XPRNCD TUE NGT AND WED...FINALLY DIMINISHING
WED NGT AS HIGH PRES MOVES OVR THE WATERS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY AND SCA WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ003-502.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ004>006-
     011-013-014-016>018-503>508.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ501.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ028-031-
     503-504.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ052>057-
     505-506.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ050>053-
     055-502-504>506.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ501-503.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ530>534-537>543.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ADS
PREVIOUS...GMS/WOODY!/HAS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 270229
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
929 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFFSHORE
AND TRACK NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM SWINGS THROUGH THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
COASTAL LOW IS RAPIDLY EAST OF THE DELMARVA THIS EVENING...WITH
PRESSURES FALLING 7 MB IN THE PAST 6 HOURS PER MSAS ANALYSIS. RADAR
BLOSSOMED THIS EVENING AS AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE DEVELOPED IN THE
INCREASING NE FLOW AROUND THE SFC LOW...AND THE REMNANT WAVE/FRONT
FROM THE CLIPPER LOW...AIDED BY THE OROGRAPHICS OF THE BLUE
RIDGE/CATOCTINS. INTENSITY OF THESE SNOW BANDS HAS BEEN VARIED AND
LOCALIZED. UNDER THE SMALLER SHOWERS...TOTALS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN
LESS THAN AN INCH...BUT DID RECEIVE A REPORT OF 3 INCHES IN
FREDERICK CO MD UNDER THE ENHANCED BAND. SYNOPTIC MODELS HAVE
DEPICTED THIS IN THE GENERAL SENSE...WITH THE RAP/HRRR GIVING A
LITTLE BETTER IDEA OF HOW THIS AREA OF SNOW WILL PIVOT AND WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE PEAK SNOW WILL BE THROUGH MIDNIGHT TO 2
AM...WITH A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND AND SE PIVOT THEREAFTER.
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THE TREND OF PREVIOUS
OBSERVATIONS...COMING IN ONE HALF TO ONE INCH SPURTS. THINK THE
WINTER WX ADVISORY GENERALLY COVERS THIS IDEA...BUT WILL MONITOR THE
PERSISTENCE OF THE PERSISTENT BAND IN THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF
THE AREA. CENTRAL/SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY STILL LOOKS MAINLY
DRY...AND ALTHOUGH FLURRIES IN THE CHO AREA...THINK MOST OF THE
STEADIER SNOWS STAY EAST. TEMPERATURES ARE NOW BELOW FREEZING IN
MANY AREAS...AND ROADS ARE QUICKLY BECOMING SLIPPERY WHERE SNOW
FALLS. RESIDUAL MOISTURE UNDERNEATH THE SNOW FROM EARLIER TODAY
WHICH FREEZES COULD LEAD TO DECEPTIVELY SLIPPERY CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE APLCNS WEAKENS AND GETS COMPLETELY
ABSORBED INTO THE DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE ATLC COAST....THE
SNOW POTENTIAL WILL SHUT DOWN QUICKLY HEADING INTO THE MID MRNG HRS
TUE. A LINGERING BAND MAY SET UP OVER THE CHES BAY/DELMARVA THAT
COULD INCH OVER INTO THE WRN SHORE MD COUNTIES BUT NOT LIKELY MUCH
FURTHER WEST OF THERE. CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO MIDDAY BUT THEY WILL
BE QUICKLY PUSHED TOWARD THE EAST BY A STRENGTHENING NW WINDS...
COURTESY OF THE INTENSE LOW WELL OFF TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. TEMPS
WILL ONLY BRIEFLY CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING TUE AFTN...BUT WIND CHILLS
WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE 20S/L30S FROM THE GUSTY AND DRIER NW FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
TIME FLIES - 4 YRS AGO TDA WAS ONE OF THE MOST INTENSE AFTN/EVE`S
OF WINTER WX XPRNCD HERE AS HVY SN/IP AT RUSH HR CAUSED THOUSANDS
OF CARS TO BE STRANDED ON AREA ROADS.

TUE NGT THRU WED NGT LOOKING LK A FAIRLY QUIET PD WXWISE. COLD
TEMPS WL BE THE KEY CONCERN - COLD AIR WL BE PUSHED INTO THE MID
ATLC AS INTENSE LOW PRES CAUSES BLZRD CONDS IN SRN NEW ENGLAND.
HIGH PRES WL BE BLDG INTO THE CWA.

LOWS TUE NGT PRIMARILY IN THE MU TEENS...L20S IN THE CITIES...
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE MTNS. HIGHS WED IN THE 30S...20S IN THE
HIGHLANDS. LOWS WED NGT FAIRLY SIMILAR TO TUE NGT.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
THURSDAY WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW
PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BRING TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE OUTLOOK AREA. SNOW WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE HIGHLANDS
THURSDAY MORNING AND AS PRECIPITATION MOVES EASTWARD AND TEMPS
RISE SNOW MAY TRANSITION TO RAIN. AT THIS TIME ACCUMULATIONS OF
LESS THAN AN INCH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA THURSDAY.
THE SFC LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES INTO FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HUDSON BAY THIS WEEKEND AND A COLD
FRONT MAY CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BANDS OF SNOW WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS EXCEPT CHO THROUGH THIS
EVENING. IFR VSBYS ARE LIKELY IN THE PERIODS OF HEAVIEST SNOW...AND
POSSIBLY BRIEFLY LOWER. CIGS WILL RESIDE EITHER SIDE OF 1000FT IN
THE METROS...A BIT HIGHER AT MRB. GUIDANCE VARIES ON WHETHER IFR
CIGS STAY LOCKED IN AT CHO OR GRADUALLY LIFT OVERNIGHT...REGARDLESS
THEY ARE LEAST LIKELY TO SEE ANY SUSTAINED SNOW OTHER THAN A PASSING
SHSN. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SNOW SHOULD BE ON A DIMINISHING
TREND AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT SOME BANDS MAY STILL BACK INTO THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY BWI/MTN. CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY
ON TUESDAY...POSSIBLY REACHING VFR BY MID AFTERNOON. N/NW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE
WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KT LIKELY.

VFR CONDS TUE NGT THRU WED NGT.

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION. SN OR RA WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WIDESPREAD SCA CONDS OCCURRING OVER THE WATERS...BUT GUSTS TO
GALES ARE STILL POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS AS
THE COASTAL LOW STRENGTHENS. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY INTO TUE
AFTN AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO AFFECT AREAS TO OUR NE...GRADUALLY
MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY.

SCA CONDS WL STILL BE XPRNCD TUE NGT AND WED...FINALLY DIMINISHING
WED NGT AS HIGH PRES MOVES OVR THE WATERS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY AND SCA WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ003-502.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ004>006-
     011-013-014-016>018-503>508.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ501.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ028-031-
     503-504.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ052>057-
     505-506.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ050>053-
     055-502-504>506.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ501-503.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ530>534-537>543.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ADS
PREVIOUS...GMS/WOODY!/HAS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 270229
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
929 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFFSHORE
AND TRACK NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM SWINGS THROUGH THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
COASTAL LOW IS RAPIDLY EAST OF THE DELMARVA THIS EVENING...WITH
PRESSURES FALLING 7 MB IN THE PAST 6 HOURS PER MSAS ANALYSIS. RADAR
BLOSSOMED THIS EVENING AS AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE DEVELOPED IN THE
INCREASING NE FLOW AROUND THE SFC LOW...AND THE REMNANT WAVE/FRONT
FROM THE CLIPPER LOW...AIDED BY THE OROGRAPHICS OF THE BLUE
RIDGE/CATOCTINS. INTENSITY OF THESE SNOW BANDS HAS BEEN VARIED AND
LOCALIZED. UNDER THE SMALLER SHOWERS...TOTALS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN
LESS THAN AN INCH...BUT DID RECEIVE A REPORT OF 3 INCHES IN
FREDERICK CO MD UNDER THE ENHANCED BAND. SYNOPTIC MODELS HAVE
DEPICTED THIS IN THE GENERAL SENSE...WITH THE RAP/HRRR GIVING A
LITTLE BETTER IDEA OF HOW THIS AREA OF SNOW WILL PIVOT AND WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE PEAK SNOW WILL BE THROUGH MIDNIGHT TO 2
AM...WITH A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND AND SE PIVOT THEREAFTER.
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THE TREND OF PREVIOUS
OBSERVATIONS...COMING IN ONE HALF TO ONE INCH SPURTS. THINK THE
WINTER WX ADVISORY GENERALLY COVERS THIS IDEA...BUT WILL MONITOR THE
PERSISTENCE OF THE PERSISTENT BAND IN THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF
THE AREA. CENTRAL/SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY STILL LOOKS MAINLY
DRY...AND ALTHOUGH FLURRIES IN THE CHO AREA...THINK MOST OF THE
STEADIER SNOWS STAY EAST. TEMPERATURES ARE NOW BELOW FREEZING IN
MANY AREAS...AND ROADS ARE QUICKLY BECOMING SLIPPERY WHERE SNOW
FALLS. RESIDUAL MOISTURE UNDERNEATH THE SNOW FROM EARLIER TODAY
WHICH FREEZES COULD LEAD TO DECEPTIVELY SLIPPERY CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE APLCNS WEAKENS AND GETS COMPLETELY
ABSORBED INTO THE DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE ATLC COAST....THE
SNOW POTENTIAL WILL SHUT DOWN QUICKLY HEADING INTO THE MID MRNG HRS
TUE. A LINGERING BAND MAY SET UP OVER THE CHES BAY/DELMARVA THAT
COULD INCH OVER INTO THE WRN SHORE MD COUNTIES BUT NOT LIKELY MUCH
FURTHER WEST OF THERE. CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO MIDDAY BUT THEY WILL
BE QUICKLY PUSHED TOWARD THE EAST BY A STRENGTHENING NW WINDS...
COURTESY OF THE INTENSE LOW WELL OFF TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. TEMPS
WILL ONLY BRIEFLY CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING TUE AFTN...BUT WIND CHILLS
WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE 20S/L30S FROM THE GUSTY AND DRIER NW FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
TIME FLIES - 4 YRS AGO TDA WAS ONE OF THE MOST INTENSE AFTN/EVE`S
OF WINTER WX XPRNCD HERE AS HVY SN/IP AT RUSH HR CAUSED THOUSANDS
OF CARS TO BE STRANDED ON AREA ROADS.

TUE NGT THRU WED NGT LOOKING LK A FAIRLY QUIET PD WXWISE. COLD
TEMPS WL BE THE KEY CONCERN - COLD AIR WL BE PUSHED INTO THE MID
ATLC AS INTENSE LOW PRES CAUSES BLZRD CONDS IN SRN NEW ENGLAND.
HIGH PRES WL BE BLDG INTO THE CWA.

LOWS TUE NGT PRIMARILY IN THE MU TEENS...L20S IN THE CITIES...
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE MTNS. HIGHS WED IN THE 30S...20S IN THE
HIGHLANDS. LOWS WED NGT FAIRLY SIMILAR TO TUE NGT.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
THURSDAY WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW
PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BRING TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE OUTLOOK AREA. SNOW WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE HIGHLANDS
THURSDAY MORNING AND AS PRECIPITATION MOVES EASTWARD AND TEMPS
RISE SNOW MAY TRANSITION TO RAIN. AT THIS TIME ACCUMULATIONS OF
LESS THAN AN INCH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA THURSDAY.
THE SFC LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES INTO FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HUDSON BAY THIS WEEKEND AND A COLD
FRONT MAY CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BANDS OF SNOW WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS EXCEPT CHO THROUGH THIS
EVENING. IFR VSBYS ARE LIKELY IN THE PERIODS OF HEAVIEST SNOW...AND
POSSIBLY BRIEFLY LOWER. CIGS WILL RESIDE EITHER SIDE OF 1000FT IN
THE METROS...A BIT HIGHER AT MRB. GUIDANCE VARIES ON WHETHER IFR
CIGS STAY LOCKED IN AT CHO OR GRADUALLY LIFT OVERNIGHT...REGARDLESS
THEY ARE LEAST LIKELY TO SEE ANY SUSTAINED SNOW OTHER THAN A PASSING
SHSN. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SNOW SHOULD BE ON A DIMINISHING
TREND AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT SOME BANDS MAY STILL BACK INTO THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY BWI/MTN. CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY
ON TUESDAY...POSSIBLY REACHING VFR BY MID AFTERNOON. N/NW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE
WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KT LIKELY.

VFR CONDS TUE NGT THRU WED NGT.

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION. SN OR RA WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WIDESPREAD SCA CONDS OCCURRING OVER THE WATERS...BUT GUSTS TO
GALES ARE STILL POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS AS
THE COASTAL LOW STRENGTHENS. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY INTO TUE
AFTN AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO AFFECT AREAS TO OUR NE...GRADUALLY
MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY.

SCA CONDS WL STILL BE XPRNCD TUE NGT AND WED...FINALLY DIMINISHING
WED NGT AS HIGH PRES MOVES OVR THE WATERS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY AND SCA WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ003-502.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ004>006-
     011-013-014-016>018-503>508.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ501.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ028-031-
     503-504.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ052>057-
     505-506.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ050>053-
     055-502-504>506.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ501-503.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ530>534-537>543.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ADS
PREVIOUS...GMS/WOODY!/HAS








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270158
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
858 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY TONIGHT AS
IT TRACKS NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND
COASTS. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON
WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN FORECAST CHANGE WAS TO START TRIMMING BACK ON INHERITED
WINTER WX ADVSRYS AS THE LIKELIHOOD FOR 1-3IN OF SNOW HAS DECREASED
OVER MANY AREAS. WPC AND MUCH OF 12Z GUIDANCE SUPPORT THIS
IDEA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADVSRY-LEVEL SNOWFALL STILL OVER
THE LWR MD ERN SHORE WHERE 2-4IN IS PSBL. DO NOT THINK NORFOLK AND
RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE AOA 2IN...BUT WITH THE HEADLINE
ALREADY OUT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO AN INCH TO PSBLY CAUSE
SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...WILL KEEP THOSE AREAS
(AND AREAS N AND E) IN THE ADVSRY FOR NOW. ANOTHER ISSUE IS
TEMPS...WITH PARTS OF THE AREA STAYING JUST A TAD ABOVE FREEZING.
WILL UPDATE AS NEEDED THIS EVENG AND TNGT.

AS FOR PCPN...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDS DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS
ASIDE FM WORCESTER CNTY WHERE AN AREA OF RA HAS BEEN PERSISTENT.
BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES THIS EVENG AS SFC LO PRES DEVELOPS
OFFSHORE. POPS RANGE FM 40-50% SW TO 70-80% NE. THE RA WILL
TRANSITION TO A RA/SN MIX THEN SN FM NW TO SE TNGT. TOTAL QPF WILL
BE UP TO A QUARTER INCH. LO TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 20S FAR
NW TO MID 30S SE. PCPN WILL END FM W TO E ON TUE AS THE SFC LO
ADVANCES TOWARDS THE GULF OF ME AND NW CAA FLOW LEADS TO GUSTS TO
25-30 MPH NR THE CST AND LWR ERN SHORE. HI TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID
30S TO LWR 40S UNDER A CLOUDY-MSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED CSTL LO PULLS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AS SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W. EXPECT
DECREASING CLOUDS TUE NIGHT WITH NW WINDS. LO TEMPS WILL RANGE
THRU THE 20S...WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.
COOL TEMPS INTO WED AS WELL...WITH HIGHS ONLY RANGING FM THE MID
30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR 30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE.
DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH SIMILAR TEMPS AS TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE
MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST STATES SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A CHC OF RAIN IS IN
THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW PSBL FAR NRN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW AND THEN
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK MOVING FRONTAL
WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT TO SEA MONDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE
FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OFF THE MD/DE COAST...RAIN AND SNOW
ARE BEGINNING TO FALL ACROSS THE AREA. SNOWFALL WILL BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE AT THE TAF SITES EXCEPT AT SBY WHERE A 2 TO 4 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY MORNING.

SOLID IFR CONDS SHOULD HANG THROUGH TUE MORNING. PCPN WINDS DOWN
AND CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. NORTH WINDS
WILL PREVAIL...WITH GUSTS TO ~25KT AT TIMES TOWARD THE COAST.
WINDS TREND TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WED.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA HEADLINES FORECAST THRU WEDS.

LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED JUST OFF THE NC/VA COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THE LOW HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY...RESULTING IN AN UPTICK OF N-NE
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. BEGINNING TO SEE 20 KT GUSTS OVER THE
BAY/LOWER JAMES WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KT OVER THE NRN COASTAL
WATERS. SEAS HAVE RESPONDED...BUILDING TO 7 FT AT BUOY 44009. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP THRU LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS (GUSTS TO 30 KT) EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WATERS TONIGHT AS
THE LOW INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY AND LIFTS AWAY FROM THE COAST. LOW LEVEL
CAA ALSO INTENSIFIES. GALE CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN COASTAL WATERS...CLOSEST TO THE STRONGEST
GRADIENT WINDS AND CAA. SEAS BUILD TO 7 TO 12 FT IN THE NRN WATERS
AND 5 TO 8 FT IN THE SRN WATERS TONIGHT. AS THE LOW LIFTS
AWAY...FLOW BACKS TO THE NW...KEEPING HIGH SEAS FROM REACHING THE
BEACHES. NO HIGH SURF PLANNED ATTM. LITTLE CHANGE TUES AS STRONG NW
FLOW PERSISTS BTWN LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OH VALLEY. GALE CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE NRN COASTAL
WATERS THRU EARLY TUES EVENING...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 5-8 FT TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
FINALLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATE WEDS...ALLOWING WINDS TO
DIMINISH AOB 15 KT. SEAS SUBSIDE THRU WEDS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE WATERS THURS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT CLIPPER FRONT
SET TO CROSS THE WATERS THURS NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF STRONG NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS. TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST
TO REACH 1.5 TO 2.0 FT IN THE LOWER BAY AND 2.0 TO 2.5 FT FOR THE
COASTAL AREAS OF THE ERN SHORE. MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS ARE
ANTICIPATED AT OCEAN CITY INLET...WITH A WATER LEVEL OF 4.9 FT.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND DOWN FROM MODERATE FLOODING...WHICH
MAKES SENSE GIVEN A MORE NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND DIRECTION. THE
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY. WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW MINOR
FLOODING THRESHOLDS IN THE LOWER BAY...BUT WILL REACH SLIGHTLY
ABOVE HIGHEST ASTRO TIDE. ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGH ANOMALIES ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOMALIES DROP OFF TUE NGT/WED AS
THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ021>025.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ081-089-
     090-093.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ091-094>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ073>078-
     084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ063-064-
     070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>638-
     654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270158
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
858 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY TONIGHT AS
IT TRACKS NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND
COASTS. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON
WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN FORECAST CHANGE WAS TO START TRIMMING BACK ON INHERITED
WINTER WX ADVSRYS AS THE LIKELIHOOD FOR 1-3IN OF SNOW HAS DECREASED
OVER MANY AREAS. WPC AND MUCH OF 12Z GUIDANCE SUPPORT THIS
IDEA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADVSRY-LEVEL SNOWFALL STILL OVER
THE LWR MD ERN SHORE WHERE 2-4IN IS PSBL. DO NOT THINK NORFOLK AND
RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE AOA 2IN...BUT WITH THE HEADLINE
ALREADY OUT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO AN INCH TO PSBLY CAUSE
SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...WILL KEEP THOSE AREAS
(AND AREAS N AND E) IN THE ADVSRY FOR NOW. ANOTHER ISSUE IS
TEMPS...WITH PARTS OF THE AREA STAYING JUST A TAD ABOVE FREEZING.
WILL UPDATE AS NEEDED THIS EVENG AND TNGT.

AS FOR PCPN...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDS DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS
ASIDE FM WORCESTER CNTY WHERE AN AREA OF RA HAS BEEN PERSISTENT.
BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES THIS EVENG AS SFC LO PRES DEVELOPS
OFFSHORE. POPS RANGE FM 40-50% SW TO 70-80% NE. THE RA WILL
TRANSITION TO A RA/SN MIX THEN SN FM NW TO SE TNGT. TOTAL QPF WILL
BE UP TO A QUARTER INCH. LO TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 20S FAR
NW TO MID 30S SE. PCPN WILL END FM W TO E ON TUE AS THE SFC LO
ADVANCES TOWARDS THE GULF OF ME AND NW CAA FLOW LEADS TO GUSTS TO
25-30 MPH NR THE CST AND LWR ERN SHORE. HI TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID
30S TO LWR 40S UNDER A CLOUDY-MSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED CSTL LO PULLS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AS SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W. EXPECT
DECREASING CLOUDS TUE NIGHT WITH NW WINDS. LO TEMPS WILL RANGE
THRU THE 20S...WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.
COOL TEMPS INTO WED AS WELL...WITH HIGHS ONLY RANGING FM THE MID
30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR 30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE.
DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH SIMILAR TEMPS AS TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE
MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST STATES SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A CHC OF RAIN IS IN
THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW PSBL FAR NRN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW AND THEN
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK MOVING FRONTAL
WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT TO SEA MONDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE
FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OFF THE MD/DE COAST...RAIN AND SNOW
ARE BEGINNING TO FALL ACROSS THE AREA. SNOWFALL WILL BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE AT THE TAF SITES EXCEPT AT SBY WHERE A 2 TO 4 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY MORNING.

SOLID IFR CONDS SHOULD HANG THROUGH TUE MORNING. PCPN WINDS DOWN
AND CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. NORTH WINDS
WILL PREVAIL...WITH GUSTS TO ~25KT AT TIMES TOWARD THE COAST.
WINDS TREND TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WED.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA HEADLINES FORECAST THRU WEDS.

LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED JUST OFF THE NC/VA COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THE LOW HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY...RESULTING IN AN UPTICK OF N-NE
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. BEGINNING TO SEE 20 KT GUSTS OVER THE
BAY/LOWER JAMES WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KT OVER THE NRN COASTAL
WATERS. SEAS HAVE RESPONDED...BUILDING TO 7 FT AT BUOY 44009. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP THRU LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS (GUSTS TO 30 KT) EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WATERS TONIGHT AS
THE LOW INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY AND LIFTS AWAY FROM THE COAST. LOW LEVEL
CAA ALSO INTENSIFIES. GALE CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN COASTAL WATERS...CLOSEST TO THE STRONGEST
GRADIENT WINDS AND CAA. SEAS BUILD TO 7 TO 12 FT IN THE NRN WATERS
AND 5 TO 8 FT IN THE SRN WATERS TONIGHT. AS THE LOW LIFTS
AWAY...FLOW BACKS TO THE NW...KEEPING HIGH SEAS FROM REACHING THE
BEACHES. NO HIGH SURF PLANNED ATTM. LITTLE CHANGE TUES AS STRONG NW
FLOW PERSISTS BTWN LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OH VALLEY. GALE CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE NRN COASTAL
WATERS THRU EARLY TUES EVENING...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 5-8 FT TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
FINALLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATE WEDS...ALLOWING WINDS TO
DIMINISH AOB 15 KT. SEAS SUBSIDE THRU WEDS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE WATERS THURS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT CLIPPER FRONT
SET TO CROSS THE WATERS THURS NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF STRONG NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS. TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST
TO REACH 1.5 TO 2.0 FT IN THE LOWER BAY AND 2.0 TO 2.5 FT FOR THE
COASTAL AREAS OF THE ERN SHORE. MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS ARE
ANTICIPATED AT OCEAN CITY INLET...WITH A WATER LEVEL OF 4.9 FT.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND DOWN FROM MODERATE FLOODING...WHICH
MAKES SENSE GIVEN A MORE NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND DIRECTION. THE
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY. WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW MINOR
FLOODING THRESHOLDS IN THE LOWER BAY...BUT WILL REACH SLIGHTLY
ABOVE HIGHEST ASTRO TIDE. ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGH ANOMALIES ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOMALIES DROP OFF TUE NGT/WED AS
THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ021>025.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ081-089-
     090-093.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ091-094>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ073>078-
     084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ063-064-
     070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>638-
     654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270158
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
858 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY TONIGHT AS
IT TRACKS NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND
COASTS. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON
WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN FORECAST CHANGE WAS TO START TRIMMING BACK ON INHERITED
WINTER WX ADVSRYS AS THE LIKELIHOOD FOR 1-3IN OF SNOW HAS DECREASED
OVER MANY AREAS. WPC AND MUCH OF 12Z GUIDANCE SUPPORT THIS
IDEA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADVSRY-LEVEL SNOWFALL STILL OVER
THE LWR MD ERN SHORE WHERE 2-4IN IS PSBL. DO NOT THINK NORFOLK AND
RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE AOA 2IN...BUT WITH THE HEADLINE
ALREADY OUT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO AN INCH TO PSBLY CAUSE
SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...WILL KEEP THOSE AREAS
(AND AREAS N AND E) IN THE ADVSRY FOR NOW. ANOTHER ISSUE IS
TEMPS...WITH PARTS OF THE AREA STAYING JUST A TAD ABOVE FREEZING.
WILL UPDATE AS NEEDED THIS EVENG AND TNGT.

AS FOR PCPN...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDS DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS
ASIDE FM WORCESTER CNTY WHERE AN AREA OF RA HAS BEEN PERSISTENT.
BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES THIS EVENG AS SFC LO PRES DEVELOPS
OFFSHORE. POPS RANGE FM 40-50% SW TO 70-80% NE. THE RA WILL
TRANSITION TO A RA/SN MIX THEN SN FM NW TO SE TNGT. TOTAL QPF WILL
BE UP TO A QUARTER INCH. LO TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 20S FAR
NW TO MID 30S SE. PCPN WILL END FM W TO E ON TUE AS THE SFC LO
ADVANCES TOWARDS THE GULF OF ME AND NW CAA FLOW LEADS TO GUSTS TO
25-30 MPH NR THE CST AND LWR ERN SHORE. HI TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID
30S TO LWR 40S UNDER A CLOUDY-MSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED CSTL LO PULLS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AS SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W. EXPECT
DECREASING CLOUDS TUE NIGHT WITH NW WINDS. LO TEMPS WILL RANGE
THRU THE 20S...WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.
COOL TEMPS INTO WED AS WELL...WITH HIGHS ONLY RANGING FM THE MID
30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR 30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE.
DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH SIMILAR TEMPS AS TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE
MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST STATES SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A CHC OF RAIN IS IN
THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW PSBL FAR NRN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW AND THEN
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK MOVING FRONTAL
WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT TO SEA MONDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE
FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OFF THE MD/DE COAST...RAIN AND SNOW
ARE BEGINNING TO FALL ACROSS THE AREA. SNOWFALL WILL BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE AT THE TAF SITES EXCEPT AT SBY WHERE A 2 TO 4 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY MORNING.

SOLID IFR CONDS SHOULD HANG THROUGH TUE MORNING. PCPN WINDS DOWN
AND CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. NORTH WINDS
WILL PREVAIL...WITH GUSTS TO ~25KT AT TIMES TOWARD THE COAST.
WINDS TREND TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WED.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA HEADLINES FORECAST THRU WEDS.

LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED JUST OFF THE NC/VA COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THE LOW HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY...RESULTING IN AN UPTICK OF N-NE
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. BEGINNING TO SEE 20 KT GUSTS OVER THE
BAY/LOWER JAMES WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KT OVER THE NRN COASTAL
WATERS. SEAS HAVE RESPONDED...BUILDING TO 7 FT AT BUOY 44009. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP THRU LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS (GUSTS TO 30 KT) EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WATERS TONIGHT AS
THE LOW INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY AND LIFTS AWAY FROM THE COAST. LOW LEVEL
CAA ALSO INTENSIFIES. GALE CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN COASTAL WATERS...CLOSEST TO THE STRONGEST
GRADIENT WINDS AND CAA. SEAS BUILD TO 7 TO 12 FT IN THE NRN WATERS
AND 5 TO 8 FT IN THE SRN WATERS TONIGHT. AS THE LOW LIFTS
AWAY...FLOW BACKS TO THE NW...KEEPING HIGH SEAS FROM REACHING THE
BEACHES. NO HIGH SURF PLANNED ATTM. LITTLE CHANGE TUES AS STRONG NW
FLOW PERSISTS BTWN LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OH VALLEY. GALE CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE NRN COASTAL
WATERS THRU EARLY TUES EVENING...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 5-8 FT TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
FINALLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATE WEDS...ALLOWING WINDS TO
DIMINISH AOB 15 KT. SEAS SUBSIDE THRU WEDS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE WATERS THURS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT CLIPPER FRONT
SET TO CROSS THE WATERS THURS NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF STRONG NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS. TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST
TO REACH 1.5 TO 2.0 FT IN THE LOWER BAY AND 2.0 TO 2.5 FT FOR THE
COASTAL AREAS OF THE ERN SHORE. MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS ARE
ANTICIPATED AT OCEAN CITY INLET...WITH A WATER LEVEL OF 4.9 FT.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND DOWN FROM MODERATE FLOODING...WHICH
MAKES SENSE GIVEN A MORE NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND DIRECTION. THE
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY. WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW MINOR
FLOODING THRESHOLDS IN THE LOWER BAY...BUT WILL REACH SLIGHTLY
ABOVE HIGHEST ASTRO TIDE. ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGH ANOMALIES ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOMALIES DROP OFF TUE NGT/WED AS
THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ021>025.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ081-089-
     090-093.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ091-094>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ073>078-
     084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ063-064-
     070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>638-
     654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270158
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
858 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY TONIGHT AS
IT TRACKS NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND
COASTS. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON
WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN FORECAST CHANGE WAS TO START TRIMMING BACK ON INHERITED
WINTER WX ADVSRYS AS THE LIKELIHOOD FOR 1-3IN OF SNOW HAS DECREASED
OVER MANY AREAS. WPC AND MUCH OF 12Z GUIDANCE SUPPORT THIS
IDEA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADVSRY-LEVEL SNOWFALL STILL OVER
THE LWR MD ERN SHORE WHERE 2-4IN IS PSBL. DO NOT THINK NORFOLK AND
RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE AOA 2IN...BUT WITH THE HEADLINE
ALREADY OUT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO AN INCH TO PSBLY CAUSE
SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...WILL KEEP THOSE AREAS
(AND AREAS N AND E) IN THE ADVSRY FOR NOW. ANOTHER ISSUE IS
TEMPS...WITH PARTS OF THE AREA STAYING JUST A TAD ABOVE FREEZING.
WILL UPDATE AS NEEDED THIS EVENG AND TNGT.

AS FOR PCPN...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDS DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS
ASIDE FM WORCESTER CNTY WHERE AN AREA OF RA HAS BEEN PERSISTENT.
BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES THIS EVENG AS SFC LO PRES DEVELOPS
OFFSHORE. POPS RANGE FM 40-50% SW TO 70-80% NE. THE RA WILL
TRANSITION TO A RA/SN MIX THEN SN FM NW TO SE TNGT. TOTAL QPF WILL
BE UP TO A QUARTER INCH. LO TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 20S FAR
NW TO MID 30S SE. PCPN WILL END FM W TO E ON TUE AS THE SFC LO
ADVANCES TOWARDS THE GULF OF ME AND NW CAA FLOW LEADS TO GUSTS TO
25-30 MPH NR THE CST AND LWR ERN SHORE. HI TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID
30S TO LWR 40S UNDER A CLOUDY-MSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED CSTL LO PULLS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AS SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W. EXPECT
DECREASING CLOUDS TUE NIGHT WITH NW WINDS. LO TEMPS WILL RANGE
THRU THE 20S...WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.
COOL TEMPS INTO WED AS WELL...WITH HIGHS ONLY RANGING FM THE MID
30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR 30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE.
DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH SIMILAR TEMPS AS TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE
MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST STATES SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A CHC OF RAIN IS IN
THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW PSBL FAR NRN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW AND THEN
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK MOVING FRONTAL
WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT TO SEA MONDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE
FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OFF THE MD/DE COAST...RAIN AND SNOW
ARE BEGINNING TO FALL ACROSS THE AREA. SNOWFALL WILL BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE AT THE TAF SITES EXCEPT AT SBY WHERE A 2 TO 4 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY MORNING.

SOLID IFR CONDS SHOULD HANG THROUGH TUE MORNING. PCPN WINDS DOWN
AND CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. NORTH WINDS
WILL PREVAIL...WITH GUSTS TO ~25KT AT TIMES TOWARD THE COAST.
WINDS TREND TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WED.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA HEADLINES FORECAST THRU WEDS.

LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED JUST OFF THE NC/VA COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THE LOW HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY...RESULTING IN AN UPTICK OF N-NE
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. BEGINNING TO SEE 20 KT GUSTS OVER THE
BAY/LOWER JAMES WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KT OVER THE NRN COASTAL
WATERS. SEAS HAVE RESPONDED...BUILDING TO 7 FT AT BUOY 44009. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP THRU LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS (GUSTS TO 30 KT) EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WATERS TONIGHT AS
THE LOW INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY AND LIFTS AWAY FROM THE COAST. LOW LEVEL
CAA ALSO INTENSIFIES. GALE CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN COASTAL WATERS...CLOSEST TO THE STRONGEST
GRADIENT WINDS AND CAA. SEAS BUILD TO 7 TO 12 FT IN THE NRN WATERS
AND 5 TO 8 FT IN THE SRN WATERS TONIGHT. AS THE LOW LIFTS
AWAY...FLOW BACKS TO THE NW...KEEPING HIGH SEAS FROM REACHING THE
BEACHES. NO HIGH SURF PLANNED ATTM. LITTLE CHANGE TUES AS STRONG NW
FLOW PERSISTS BTWN LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OH VALLEY. GALE CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE NRN COASTAL
WATERS THRU EARLY TUES EVENING...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 5-8 FT TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
FINALLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATE WEDS...ALLOWING WINDS TO
DIMINISH AOB 15 KT. SEAS SUBSIDE THRU WEDS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE WATERS THURS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT CLIPPER FRONT
SET TO CROSS THE WATERS THURS NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF STRONG NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS. TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST
TO REACH 1.5 TO 2.0 FT IN THE LOWER BAY AND 2.0 TO 2.5 FT FOR THE
COASTAL AREAS OF THE ERN SHORE. MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS ARE
ANTICIPATED AT OCEAN CITY INLET...WITH A WATER LEVEL OF 4.9 FT.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND DOWN FROM MODERATE FLOODING...WHICH
MAKES SENSE GIVEN A MORE NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND DIRECTION. THE
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY. WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW MINOR
FLOODING THRESHOLDS IN THE LOWER BAY...BUT WILL REACH SLIGHTLY
ABOVE HIGHEST ASTRO TIDE. ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGH ANOMALIES ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOMALIES DROP OFF TUE NGT/WED AS
THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ021>025.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ081-089-
     090-093.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ091-094>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ073>078-
     084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ063-064-
     070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>638-
     654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS61 KRNK 270034
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
734 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER VIRGINIA WILL DEVELOP INTO A MAJOR WINTER STORM
AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THIS STORM WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 715 PM EST MONDAY...

NO CHANGES PLANNED TO CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES.

AREA RADARS SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
ALONG A COLD FRONT BEING ENHANCED A BIT BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE. MESO MODELS SEEM TO HAVE BEEN HANDLING THE EVOLUTION
OF THIS WELL AND INDICATE IT WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS IT
MOVES INTO THE PIEDMONT. THEREFORE WILL BE LOWERING POPS OUT EAST.
EXPECT THE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE IN THE BLUSTERY NW
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...AND A MORE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE DIVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF
THE UPPER TROF SHOULD ENERGIZE THE ACTIVITY FROM THE NORTH
CAROLINA MTNS UP INTO THE GRAYSON HIGHLANDS WHERE THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH NOON TOMORROW.

PREVIOUS AFD...

LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY PASSING OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA WITH
UPPER TROF AXIS AND COLDER AIR SPILLING OVER THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND
THIS COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CAUSE FALLING TEMPERATURES FARTHER
EAST AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY
DROPPED INTO THE 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS. READINGS IN THE 40S WERE
FOUND OVER THE PIEDMONT OF NC AND INTO SOUTHSIDE VA...BUT THESE
NUMBERS WILL TAKE A TUMBLE TONIGHT.

THROUGH 4PM TODAY...LITTLE OR NO SNOW HAD ACCUMULATED ANYWHERE
WITHING THE CWA...WITH MAINLY A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND RAIN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AS TEMPERATURES FALL
THIS EVENING...ANY LINGERING RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW. THE
DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE WV HIGHLANDS
WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. LATER TONIGHT THERE WILL BE A SECONDARY SURGE OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE
NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ACCUMULATING
SNOW FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA HIGH COUNTRY AND MOUNT ROGERS IN
VIRGINIA. SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO COME INTO PLAY
LATE TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW 20 DEG F...WILDING 2 TO 1.
AS SUCH...THINK IT IS FEASIBLE TO SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW OVER
THE NC HIGH COUNTRY...POSSIBLY MORE AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 4000 FT.

OVERALL THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A BIG SNOW PRODUCER FOR
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE MAIN MEDIA FOCUS WILL BE ON COASTAL
NEW ENGLAND WHERE THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL WRAP UP INTO A
MAJOR WINTER STORM. FOR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WE GET TO DEAL
WITH THE BACKLASH WINDS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. THEIR IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE COASTAL STORM TO
PENETRATE AS FAR SOUTH AS OUR NORTHEASTERN CWA LATE TONIGHT...SO
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AS THERE MAY BE A NEED FOR
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES FOR AREAS NORTHEAST OF LYNCHBURG...
SPECIFICALLY APPOMATTOX...BUCKINGHAM AND POINTS NORTH AND EAST.

EVEN THOUGH WE ARE NOT ADVERTISING MUCH PRECIP WITHIN OUR LOCAL
FORECAST AREA...THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS VERY DYNAMIC...LOTS OF
ENERGY ALOFT THAT WILL CAUSE THIS STORM TO DEEPEN QUICKLY AS IT
MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. HAVE EVEN SEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
WITHIN THE SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT TODAY WHICH IS
AN INDICATOR OF HOW UNSTABLE THIS ATMOSPHERE IS BECOMING AND THE
POTENTIAL ENERGY THAT IS BUILDING UP FOR THIS THING TO FEED OFF OF
ONCE IT GETS EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND CERTAINLY SETTING THE
STAGE FOR COASTAL BOMBOGENESIS TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLING WITH QPF...AND IT WAS A BIT INTERESTING TO SEE ALL THE
QPF THE GFS MODEL PAINTING OVER OUR CWA THIS MORNING...YET NOT
MUCH WAS OCCURRING...CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN THE MODEL. WHAT REALLY
MADE IT HUMOROUS WAS THE MODEL THEN TOOK THE 4-6 TENTHS OF AN INCH
OF QPF AND CONVERTED IT TO ALL SNOW. ANYONE ISSUING FORECASTS AND
BLINDLY FOLLOWING GUIDANCE THIS MORNING WOULD HAVE THEN
EXPERIENCED A GOOD TASTE OF METEOROLOGICAL/MODEL CANCER...A
GARBAGE IN...GARBAGE OUT SORT OF FORECAST.

QPF ISSUES ASIDE...THE IMPACT FROM THIS STORM FOR OUR LOCAL AREA
WILL BE MINOR COMPARED TO OUR NEIGHBORS TO THE NORTH. I.E. NOTHING
WE HAVN`T SEE BEFORE. IN SUMMARY...A PERIOD OF SNOW IS LIKELY FOR
OUR MOUNTAINS TONIGHT WITH FLURRIES AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
LINGERING INTO TUESDAY. IT WILL BECOME BLUSTERY WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 20MPH...AND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH. A 40 MPH GUST
OVER THE NC/VA/WV HIGHLANDS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. COLDER AIR
SPILLING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS...TO NEAR 30 IN THE PIEDMONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE ON TUESDAY...REMAINING IN THE
20S MOUNTAINS...AND 30S TO NO MORE THAN 40 EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EST MONDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT OUR REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE WITHIN A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST. NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH A ORIGIN ACROSS LAKE
ERIE...WILL BRING MOISTURE UPSLOPE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS...SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH
CAROLINA. ANTICIPATE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ALONG THE PREFERRED
WESTERN SLOPES. AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATEST IN WESTERN GREENBRIER
COUNTY WHERE LESS THAN INCH OF NEW MEASURABLE SNOW IS EXPECTED.
ELSEWHERE...THE SNOW WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF FLURRIES...OR
ACCUMULATING SNOW THAT PRODUCES A DUSTING ON SURFACES. WINDS WILL
GUST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH LESSER
MAGNITUDES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

BY WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE AREA AND LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND VEER MORE NORTHERLY...THUS TURNING OFF
THE UPSLOPE SNOW MACHINE. ANTICIPATE A TREND TOWARD LITTLE OR NO
CLOUD COVER AND WEAKENING WINDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION WHILE OUR NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM HEADS
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOOK FOR WINDS TO BACK
SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD...ALONG WITH AN
ONSET OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. CLOUD COVER WILL START TO INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO THAT BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
REGION. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE IN THE WEST BY
MIDDAY THURSDAY AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM HEADS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS AT THIS TIME TO BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX
IN THE WEST. AS PRECIPITATION SPREADS EAST DURING THE...MILDER AIR
WILL ALLOW FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION
TO PLAIN RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA ONCE WARM AIR ADVECTION STARTS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EST MONDAY...

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO MUCH BELOW THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...ALONG WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY.

UPPER LEVELS WILL BE EVOLVING TO MORE OF A DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM.
THE LATEST INDICATIONS POINT TO A COLDER MORE AMPLIFIED EASTERN TROF
DEVELOPING AS PER THE ECMWF...AND SPLIT FLOW OUT WEST WITH A RIDGE
FOR THE PACIFIC NW AND A CUTOFF LOW REGENERATING OVER THE BAJA
PENINSULA.

THURSDAY NIGHT STARTS OUT WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH FOLLOWED
BY UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS
WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE SNOW SHOWERS AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN
WITH FAIR WEATHER AND COLD TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF THE
WEEKEND.

IT NOW APPEARS THAT A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
ON SUNDAY...BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING VERY STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS TO USHER IN A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR AND COLD
TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH THIS MESSAGE AND NAEFS ANOMALIES NOW SUPPORT THE GFS
TREND TOWARD THIS SOLUTION SO CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN THIS COLD
OUTBREAK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DEEP COASTAL LOW PRESSURE AREA THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS TAF VALID
CYCLE. THE MAIN EFFECTS OF THIS STORM WILL BE FOR THE BIG CITIES
IN THE NORTHEAST. FOR US...WE WILL DEAL WITH A COUPLE OF BANDS OF
SNOW...ONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...AND PERHAPS THE DEFORMATION
ZONE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...WHILE IN THE WEST IS A STRONG UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING SSE FROM THE OH/TN VALLEY TOWARD
GA/SC...THAT WILL MAINLY IMPACT EASTERN TN/FAR SOUTHWEST
VA/NORTHWEST NC OVERNIGHT/EARLY TUE. THIS WOULD PRINCIPALLY IMPACT
TNB...BUT COULD IMPACT LWB/BLF/BCB TO SOME EXTENT...SO HAVE
INCLUDED -SN WITH IFR-LIFR CIGS AND MVFR-IFR VSBYS WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. SOME -SN MAY ALSO IMPACT LYH LATER ON AS THE COASTAL LOW
INTENSIFIES OFF THE DELMARVA. CIGS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN MVFR-IFR MUCH OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT...INCLUDING BLF/LWB. BCB WILL
LIKELY REMAIN MVFR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR OVERNIGHT...BECOMING VFR BY
DAYBREAK TUE. IFR CIGS MAY PERSIST LYH-DAN UNTIL THE COLD FRONT
REACHES THAT AREA BY 02Z. A FEW -SHRA MAY ALSO OCCUR IN THE WARMER
AIR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH 02Z...BUT THIS WILL NOT IMPACT
CIGS/VSBYS. WINDS...NNE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO NW WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE THROUGH 04Z...BECOMING NW ALL AREAS BY OR AFTER 04Z.
SPEEDS 8-12KTS WITH GUSTS 15-20KTS INCREASING OVERNIGHT TO 9-13KTS
WITH GUSTS 17-25KTS.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH 14Z...THEN MEDIUM TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE A QUIET DAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TAF LOCATIONS. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM
ARRIVES ON THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CIGS AND
VSBYS...WITH A CHANCE FOR -SHRA...-SHSN IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
HINTON ALL HAZARDS RADIO...162.425MHZ WAS OFF THE AIR THIS
MORNING. TECHNICIANS INDICATE THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF TREE DAMAGE
FROM ICE IN THE AREA AND THE RADIO WILL CONTINUE EXPERIENCE
INTERMITTENT OUTAGES DUE TO POWER INTERRUPTIONS IN THE AREA.

THE ROANOKE TRANSMITTER...POOR MOUNTAIN 162.475 MHZ...IS ALSO
EXPERIENCING PROBLEMS WITH INTERMITTENT OUTAGES. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS EXIST ON POOR MOUNTAIN WITH THE POWER BEING INTERRUPTED
BY TREE DAMAGE FROM ICE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ019-020.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ015.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...MBS/PM
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...PM/RAB
EQUIPMENT...PM



000
FXUS61 KRNK 270034
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
734 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER VIRGINIA WILL DEVELOP INTO A MAJOR WINTER STORM
AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THIS STORM WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 715 PM EST MONDAY...

NO CHANGES PLANNED TO CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES.

AREA RADARS SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
ALONG A COLD FRONT BEING ENHANCED A BIT BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE. MESO MODELS SEEM TO HAVE BEEN HANDLING THE EVOLUTION
OF THIS WELL AND INDICATE IT WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS IT
MOVES INTO THE PIEDMONT. THEREFORE WILL BE LOWERING POPS OUT EAST.
EXPECT THE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE IN THE BLUSTERY NW
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...AND A MORE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE DIVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF
THE UPPER TROF SHOULD ENERGIZE THE ACTIVITY FROM THE NORTH
CAROLINA MTNS UP INTO THE GRAYSON HIGHLANDS WHERE THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH NOON TOMORROW.

PREVIOUS AFD...

LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY PASSING OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA WITH
UPPER TROF AXIS AND COLDER AIR SPILLING OVER THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND
THIS COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CAUSE FALLING TEMPERATURES FARTHER
EAST AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY
DROPPED INTO THE 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS. READINGS IN THE 40S WERE
FOUND OVER THE PIEDMONT OF NC AND INTO SOUTHSIDE VA...BUT THESE
NUMBERS WILL TAKE A TUMBLE TONIGHT.

THROUGH 4PM TODAY...LITTLE OR NO SNOW HAD ACCUMULATED ANYWHERE
WITHING THE CWA...WITH MAINLY A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND RAIN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AS TEMPERATURES FALL
THIS EVENING...ANY LINGERING RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW. THE
DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE WV HIGHLANDS
WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. LATER TONIGHT THERE WILL BE A SECONDARY SURGE OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE
NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ACCUMULATING
SNOW FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA HIGH COUNTRY AND MOUNT ROGERS IN
VIRGINIA. SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO COME INTO PLAY
LATE TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW 20 DEG F...WILDING 2 TO 1.
AS SUCH...THINK IT IS FEASIBLE TO SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW OVER
THE NC HIGH COUNTRY...POSSIBLY MORE AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 4000 FT.

OVERALL THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A BIG SNOW PRODUCER FOR
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE MAIN MEDIA FOCUS WILL BE ON COASTAL
NEW ENGLAND WHERE THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL WRAP UP INTO A
MAJOR WINTER STORM. FOR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WE GET TO DEAL
WITH THE BACKLASH WINDS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. THEIR IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE COASTAL STORM TO
PENETRATE AS FAR SOUTH AS OUR NORTHEASTERN CWA LATE TONIGHT...SO
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AS THERE MAY BE A NEED FOR
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES FOR AREAS NORTHEAST OF LYNCHBURG...
SPECIFICALLY APPOMATTOX...BUCKINGHAM AND POINTS NORTH AND EAST.

EVEN THOUGH WE ARE NOT ADVERTISING MUCH PRECIP WITHIN OUR LOCAL
FORECAST AREA...THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS VERY DYNAMIC...LOTS OF
ENERGY ALOFT THAT WILL CAUSE THIS STORM TO DEEPEN QUICKLY AS IT
MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. HAVE EVEN SEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
WITHIN THE SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT TODAY WHICH IS
AN INDICATOR OF HOW UNSTABLE THIS ATMOSPHERE IS BECOMING AND THE
POTENTIAL ENERGY THAT IS BUILDING UP FOR THIS THING TO FEED OFF OF
ONCE IT GETS EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND CERTAINLY SETTING THE
STAGE FOR COASTAL BOMBOGENESIS TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLING WITH QPF...AND IT WAS A BIT INTERESTING TO SEE ALL THE
QPF THE GFS MODEL PAINTING OVER OUR CWA THIS MORNING...YET NOT
MUCH WAS OCCURRING...CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN THE MODEL. WHAT REALLY
MADE IT HUMOROUS WAS THE MODEL THEN TOOK THE 4-6 TENTHS OF AN INCH
OF QPF AND CONVERTED IT TO ALL SNOW. ANYONE ISSUING FORECASTS AND
BLINDLY FOLLOWING GUIDANCE THIS MORNING WOULD HAVE THEN
EXPERIENCED A GOOD TASTE OF METEOROLOGICAL/MODEL CANCER...A
GARBAGE IN...GARBAGE OUT SORT OF FORECAST.

QPF ISSUES ASIDE...THE IMPACT FROM THIS STORM FOR OUR LOCAL AREA
WILL BE MINOR COMPARED TO OUR NEIGHBORS TO THE NORTH. I.E. NOTHING
WE HAVN`T SEE BEFORE. IN SUMMARY...A PERIOD OF SNOW IS LIKELY FOR
OUR MOUNTAINS TONIGHT WITH FLURRIES AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
LINGERING INTO TUESDAY. IT WILL BECOME BLUSTERY WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 20MPH...AND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH. A 40 MPH GUST
OVER THE NC/VA/WV HIGHLANDS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. COLDER AIR
SPILLING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS...TO NEAR 30 IN THE PIEDMONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE ON TUESDAY...REMAINING IN THE
20S MOUNTAINS...AND 30S TO NO MORE THAN 40 EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EST MONDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT OUR REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE WITHIN A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST. NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH A ORIGIN ACROSS LAKE
ERIE...WILL BRING MOISTURE UPSLOPE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS...SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH
CAROLINA. ANTICIPATE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ALONG THE PREFERRED
WESTERN SLOPES. AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATEST IN WESTERN GREENBRIER
COUNTY WHERE LESS THAN INCH OF NEW MEASURABLE SNOW IS EXPECTED.
ELSEWHERE...THE SNOW WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF FLURRIES...OR
ACCUMULATING SNOW THAT PRODUCES A DUSTING ON SURFACES. WINDS WILL
GUST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH LESSER
MAGNITUDES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

BY WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE AREA AND LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND VEER MORE NORTHERLY...THUS TURNING OFF
THE UPSLOPE SNOW MACHINE. ANTICIPATE A TREND TOWARD LITTLE OR NO
CLOUD COVER AND WEAKENING WINDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION WHILE OUR NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM HEADS
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOOK FOR WINDS TO BACK
SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD...ALONG WITH AN
ONSET OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. CLOUD COVER WILL START TO INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO THAT BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
REGION. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE IN THE WEST BY
MIDDAY THURSDAY AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM HEADS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS AT THIS TIME TO BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX
IN THE WEST. AS PRECIPITATION SPREADS EAST DURING THE...MILDER AIR
WILL ALLOW FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION
TO PLAIN RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA ONCE WARM AIR ADVECTION STARTS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EST MONDAY...

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO MUCH BELOW THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...ALONG WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY.

UPPER LEVELS WILL BE EVOLVING TO MORE OF A DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM.
THE LATEST INDICATIONS POINT TO A COLDER MORE AMPLIFIED EASTERN TROF
DEVELOPING AS PER THE ECMWF...AND SPLIT FLOW OUT WEST WITH A RIDGE
FOR THE PACIFIC NW AND A CUTOFF LOW REGENERATING OVER THE BAJA
PENINSULA.

THURSDAY NIGHT STARTS OUT WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH FOLLOWED
BY UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS
WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE SNOW SHOWERS AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN
WITH FAIR WEATHER AND COLD TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF THE
WEEKEND.

IT NOW APPEARS THAT A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
ON SUNDAY...BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING VERY STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS TO USHER IN A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR AND COLD
TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH THIS MESSAGE AND NAEFS ANOMALIES NOW SUPPORT THE GFS
TREND TOWARD THIS SOLUTION SO CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN THIS COLD
OUTBREAK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DEEP COASTAL LOW PRESSURE AREA THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS TAF VALID
CYCLE. THE MAIN EFFECTS OF THIS STORM WILL BE FOR THE BIG CITIES
IN THE NORTHEAST. FOR US...WE WILL DEAL WITH A COUPLE OF BANDS OF
SNOW...ONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...AND PERHAPS THE DEFORMATION
ZONE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...WHILE IN THE WEST IS A STRONG UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING SSE FROM THE OH/TN VALLEY TOWARD
GA/SC...THAT WILL MAINLY IMPACT EASTERN TN/FAR SOUTHWEST
VA/NORTHWEST NC OVERNIGHT/EARLY TUE. THIS WOULD PRINCIPALLY IMPACT
TNB...BUT COULD IMPACT LWB/BLF/BCB TO SOME EXTENT...SO HAVE
INCLUDED -SN WITH IFR-LIFR CIGS AND MVFR-IFR VSBYS WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. SOME -SN MAY ALSO IMPACT LYH LATER ON AS THE COASTAL LOW
INTENSIFIES OFF THE DELMARVA. CIGS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN MVFR-IFR MUCH OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT...INCLUDING BLF/LWB. BCB WILL
LIKELY REMAIN MVFR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR OVERNIGHT...BECOMING VFR BY
DAYBREAK TUE. IFR CIGS MAY PERSIST LYH-DAN UNTIL THE COLD FRONT
REACHES THAT AREA BY 02Z. A FEW -SHRA MAY ALSO OCCUR IN THE WARMER
AIR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH 02Z...BUT THIS WILL NOT IMPACT
CIGS/VSBYS. WINDS...NNE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO NW WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE THROUGH 04Z...BECOMING NW ALL AREAS BY OR AFTER 04Z.
SPEEDS 8-12KTS WITH GUSTS 15-20KTS INCREASING OVERNIGHT TO 9-13KTS
WITH GUSTS 17-25KTS.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH 14Z...THEN MEDIUM TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE A QUIET DAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TAF LOCATIONS. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM
ARRIVES ON THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CIGS AND
VSBYS...WITH A CHANCE FOR -SHRA...-SHSN IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
HINTON ALL HAZARDS RADIO...162.425MHZ WAS OFF THE AIR THIS
MORNING. TECHNICIANS INDICATE THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF TREE DAMAGE
FROM ICE IN THE AREA AND THE RADIO WILL CONTINUE EXPERIENCE
INTERMITTENT OUTAGES DUE TO POWER INTERRUPTIONS IN THE AREA.

THE ROANOKE TRANSMITTER...POOR MOUNTAIN 162.475 MHZ...IS ALSO
EXPERIENCING PROBLEMS WITH INTERMITTENT OUTAGES. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS EXIST ON POOR MOUNTAIN WITH THE POWER BEING INTERRUPTED
BY TREE DAMAGE FROM ICE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ019-020.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ015.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...MBS/PM
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...PM/RAB
EQUIPMENT...PM



000
FXUS61 KRNK 270034
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
734 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER VIRGINIA WILL DEVELOP INTO A MAJOR WINTER STORM
AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THIS STORM WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 715 PM EST MONDAY...

NO CHANGES PLANNED TO CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES.

AREA RADARS SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
ALONG A COLD FRONT BEING ENHANCED A BIT BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE. MESO MODELS SEEM TO HAVE BEEN HANDLING THE EVOLUTION
OF THIS WELL AND INDICATE IT WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS IT
MOVES INTO THE PIEDMONT. THEREFORE WILL BE LOWERING POPS OUT EAST.
EXPECT THE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE IN THE BLUSTERY NW
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...AND A MORE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE DIVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF
THE UPPER TROF SHOULD ENERGIZE THE ACTIVITY FROM THE NORTH
CAROLINA MTNS UP INTO THE GRAYSON HIGHLANDS WHERE THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH NOON TOMORROW.

PREVIOUS AFD...

LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY PASSING OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA WITH
UPPER TROF AXIS AND COLDER AIR SPILLING OVER THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND
THIS COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CAUSE FALLING TEMPERATURES FARTHER
EAST AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY
DROPPED INTO THE 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS. READINGS IN THE 40S WERE
FOUND OVER THE PIEDMONT OF NC AND INTO SOUTHSIDE VA...BUT THESE
NUMBERS WILL TAKE A TUMBLE TONIGHT.

THROUGH 4PM TODAY...LITTLE OR NO SNOW HAD ACCUMULATED ANYWHERE
WITHING THE CWA...WITH MAINLY A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND RAIN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AS TEMPERATURES FALL
THIS EVENING...ANY LINGERING RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW. THE
DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE WV HIGHLANDS
WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. LATER TONIGHT THERE WILL BE A SECONDARY SURGE OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE
NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ACCUMULATING
SNOW FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA HIGH COUNTRY AND MOUNT ROGERS IN
VIRGINIA. SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO COME INTO PLAY
LATE TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW 20 DEG F...WILDING 2 TO 1.
AS SUCH...THINK IT IS FEASIBLE TO SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW OVER
THE NC HIGH COUNTRY...POSSIBLY MORE AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 4000 FT.

OVERALL THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A BIG SNOW PRODUCER FOR
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE MAIN MEDIA FOCUS WILL BE ON COASTAL
NEW ENGLAND WHERE THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL WRAP UP INTO A
MAJOR WINTER STORM. FOR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WE GET TO DEAL
WITH THE BACKLASH WINDS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. THEIR IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE COASTAL STORM TO
PENETRATE AS FAR SOUTH AS OUR NORTHEASTERN CWA LATE TONIGHT...SO
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AS THERE MAY BE A NEED FOR
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES FOR AREAS NORTHEAST OF LYNCHBURG...
SPECIFICALLY APPOMATTOX...BUCKINGHAM AND POINTS NORTH AND EAST.

EVEN THOUGH WE ARE NOT ADVERTISING MUCH PRECIP WITHIN OUR LOCAL
FORECAST AREA...THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS VERY DYNAMIC...LOTS OF
ENERGY ALOFT THAT WILL CAUSE THIS STORM TO DEEPEN QUICKLY AS IT
MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. HAVE EVEN SEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
WITHIN THE SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT TODAY WHICH IS
AN INDICATOR OF HOW UNSTABLE THIS ATMOSPHERE IS BECOMING AND THE
POTENTIAL ENERGY THAT IS BUILDING UP FOR THIS THING TO FEED OFF OF
ONCE IT GETS EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND CERTAINLY SETTING THE
STAGE FOR COASTAL BOMBOGENESIS TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLING WITH QPF...AND IT WAS A BIT INTERESTING TO SEE ALL THE
QPF THE GFS MODEL PAINTING OVER OUR CWA THIS MORNING...YET NOT
MUCH WAS OCCURRING...CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN THE MODEL. WHAT REALLY
MADE IT HUMOROUS WAS THE MODEL THEN TOOK THE 4-6 TENTHS OF AN INCH
OF QPF AND CONVERTED IT TO ALL SNOW. ANYONE ISSUING FORECASTS AND
BLINDLY FOLLOWING GUIDANCE THIS MORNING WOULD HAVE THEN
EXPERIENCED A GOOD TASTE OF METEOROLOGICAL/MODEL CANCER...A
GARBAGE IN...GARBAGE OUT SORT OF FORECAST.

QPF ISSUES ASIDE...THE IMPACT FROM THIS STORM FOR OUR LOCAL AREA
WILL BE MINOR COMPARED TO OUR NEIGHBORS TO THE NORTH. I.E. NOTHING
WE HAVN`T SEE BEFORE. IN SUMMARY...A PERIOD OF SNOW IS LIKELY FOR
OUR MOUNTAINS TONIGHT WITH FLURRIES AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
LINGERING INTO TUESDAY. IT WILL BECOME BLUSTERY WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 20MPH...AND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH. A 40 MPH GUST
OVER THE NC/VA/WV HIGHLANDS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. COLDER AIR
SPILLING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS...TO NEAR 30 IN THE PIEDMONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE ON TUESDAY...REMAINING IN THE
20S MOUNTAINS...AND 30S TO NO MORE THAN 40 EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EST MONDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT OUR REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE WITHIN A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST. NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH A ORIGIN ACROSS LAKE
ERIE...WILL BRING MOISTURE UPSLOPE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS...SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH
CAROLINA. ANTICIPATE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ALONG THE PREFERRED
WESTERN SLOPES. AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATEST IN WESTERN GREENBRIER
COUNTY WHERE LESS THAN INCH OF NEW MEASURABLE SNOW IS EXPECTED.
ELSEWHERE...THE SNOW WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF FLURRIES...OR
ACCUMULATING SNOW THAT PRODUCES A DUSTING ON SURFACES. WINDS WILL
GUST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH LESSER
MAGNITUDES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

BY WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE AREA AND LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND VEER MORE NORTHERLY...THUS TURNING OFF
THE UPSLOPE SNOW MACHINE. ANTICIPATE A TREND TOWARD LITTLE OR NO
CLOUD COVER AND WEAKENING WINDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION WHILE OUR NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM HEADS
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOOK FOR WINDS TO BACK
SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD...ALONG WITH AN
ONSET OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. CLOUD COVER WILL START TO INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO THAT BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
REGION. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE IN THE WEST BY
MIDDAY THURSDAY AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM HEADS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS AT THIS TIME TO BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX
IN THE WEST. AS PRECIPITATION SPREADS EAST DURING THE...MILDER AIR
WILL ALLOW FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION
TO PLAIN RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA ONCE WARM AIR ADVECTION STARTS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EST MONDAY...

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO MUCH BELOW THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...ALONG WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY.

UPPER LEVELS WILL BE EVOLVING TO MORE OF A DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM.
THE LATEST INDICATIONS POINT TO A COLDER MORE AMPLIFIED EASTERN TROF
DEVELOPING AS PER THE ECMWF...AND SPLIT FLOW OUT WEST WITH A RIDGE
FOR THE PACIFIC NW AND A CUTOFF LOW REGENERATING OVER THE BAJA
PENINSULA.

THURSDAY NIGHT STARTS OUT WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH FOLLOWED
BY UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS
WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE SNOW SHOWERS AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN
WITH FAIR WEATHER AND COLD TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF THE
WEEKEND.

IT NOW APPEARS THAT A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
ON SUNDAY...BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING VERY STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS TO USHER IN A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR AND COLD
TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH THIS MESSAGE AND NAEFS ANOMALIES NOW SUPPORT THE GFS
TREND TOWARD THIS SOLUTION SO CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN THIS COLD
OUTBREAK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DEEP COASTAL LOW PRESSURE AREA THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS TAF VALID
CYCLE. THE MAIN EFFECTS OF THIS STORM WILL BE FOR THE BIG CITIES
IN THE NORTHEAST. FOR US...WE WILL DEAL WITH A COUPLE OF BANDS OF
SNOW...ONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...AND PERHAPS THE DEFORMATION
ZONE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...WHILE IN THE WEST IS A STRONG UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING SSE FROM THE OH/TN VALLEY TOWARD
GA/SC...THAT WILL MAINLY IMPACT EASTERN TN/FAR SOUTHWEST
VA/NORTHWEST NC OVERNIGHT/EARLY TUE. THIS WOULD PRINCIPALLY IMPACT
TNB...BUT COULD IMPACT LWB/BLF/BCB TO SOME EXTENT...SO HAVE
INCLUDED -SN WITH IFR-LIFR CIGS AND MVFR-IFR VSBYS WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. SOME -SN MAY ALSO IMPACT LYH LATER ON AS THE COASTAL LOW
INTENSIFIES OFF THE DELMARVA. CIGS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN MVFR-IFR MUCH OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT...INCLUDING BLF/LWB. BCB WILL
LIKELY REMAIN MVFR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR OVERNIGHT...BECOMING VFR BY
DAYBREAK TUE. IFR CIGS MAY PERSIST LYH-DAN UNTIL THE COLD FRONT
REACHES THAT AREA BY 02Z. A FEW -SHRA MAY ALSO OCCUR IN THE WARMER
AIR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH 02Z...BUT THIS WILL NOT IMPACT
CIGS/VSBYS. WINDS...NNE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO NW WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE THROUGH 04Z...BECOMING NW ALL AREAS BY OR AFTER 04Z.
SPEEDS 8-12KTS WITH GUSTS 15-20KTS INCREASING OVERNIGHT TO 9-13KTS
WITH GUSTS 17-25KTS.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH 14Z...THEN MEDIUM TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE A QUIET DAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TAF LOCATIONS. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM
ARRIVES ON THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CIGS AND
VSBYS...WITH A CHANCE FOR -SHRA...-SHSN IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
HINTON ALL HAZARDS RADIO...162.425MHZ WAS OFF THE AIR THIS
MORNING. TECHNICIANS INDICATE THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF TREE DAMAGE
FROM ICE IN THE AREA AND THE RADIO WILL CONTINUE EXPERIENCE
INTERMITTENT OUTAGES DUE TO POWER INTERRUPTIONS IN THE AREA.

THE ROANOKE TRANSMITTER...POOR MOUNTAIN 162.475 MHZ...IS ALSO
EXPERIENCING PROBLEMS WITH INTERMITTENT OUTAGES. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS EXIST ON POOR MOUNTAIN WITH THE POWER BEING INTERRUPTED
BY TREE DAMAGE FROM ICE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ019-020.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ015.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...MBS/PM
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...PM/RAB
EQUIPMENT...PM



000
FXUS61 KRNK 270034
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
734 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER VIRGINIA WILL DEVELOP INTO A MAJOR WINTER STORM
AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THIS STORM WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 715 PM EST MONDAY...

NO CHANGES PLANNED TO CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES.

AREA RADARS SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
ALONG A COLD FRONT BEING ENHANCED A BIT BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE. MESO MODELS SEEM TO HAVE BEEN HANDLING THE EVOLUTION
OF THIS WELL AND INDICATE IT WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS IT
MOVES INTO THE PIEDMONT. THEREFORE WILL BE LOWERING POPS OUT EAST.
EXPECT THE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE IN THE BLUSTERY NW
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...AND A MORE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE DIVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF
THE UPPER TROF SHOULD ENERGIZE THE ACTIVITY FROM THE NORTH
CAROLINA MTNS UP INTO THE GRAYSON HIGHLANDS WHERE THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH NOON TOMORROW.

PREVIOUS AFD...

LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY PASSING OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA WITH
UPPER TROF AXIS AND COLDER AIR SPILLING OVER THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND
THIS COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CAUSE FALLING TEMPERATURES FARTHER
EAST AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY
DROPPED INTO THE 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS. READINGS IN THE 40S WERE
FOUND OVER THE PIEDMONT OF NC AND INTO SOUTHSIDE VA...BUT THESE
NUMBERS WILL TAKE A TUMBLE TONIGHT.

THROUGH 4PM TODAY...LITTLE OR NO SNOW HAD ACCUMULATED ANYWHERE
WITHING THE CWA...WITH MAINLY A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND RAIN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AS TEMPERATURES FALL
THIS EVENING...ANY LINGERING RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW. THE
DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE WV HIGHLANDS
WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. LATER TONIGHT THERE WILL BE A SECONDARY SURGE OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE
NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ACCUMULATING
SNOW FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA HIGH COUNTRY AND MOUNT ROGERS IN
VIRGINIA. SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO COME INTO PLAY
LATE TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW 20 DEG F...WILDING 2 TO 1.
AS SUCH...THINK IT IS FEASIBLE TO SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW OVER
THE NC HIGH COUNTRY...POSSIBLY MORE AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 4000 FT.

OVERALL THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A BIG SNOW PRODUCER FOR
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE MAIN MEDIA FOCUS WILL BE ON COASTAL
NEW ENGLAND WHERE THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL WRAP UP INTO A
MAJOR WINTER STORM. FOR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WE GET TO DEAL
WITH THE BACKLASH WINDS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. THEIR IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE COASTAL STORM TO
PENETRATE AS FAR SOUTH AS OUR NORTHEASTERN CWA LATE TONIGHT...SO
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AS THERE MAY BE A NEED FOR
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES FOR AREAS NORTHEAST OF LYNCHBURG...
SPECIFICALLY APPOMATTOX...BUCKINGHAM AND POINTS NORTH AND EAST.

EVEN THOUGH WE ARE NOT ADVERTISING MUCH PRECIP WITHIN OUR LOCAL
FORECAST AREA...THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS VERY DYNAMIC...LOTS OF
ENERGY ALOFT THAT WILL CAUSE THIS STORM TO DEEPEN QUICKLY AS IT
MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. HAVE EVEN SEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
WITHIN THE SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT TODAY WHICH IS
AN INDICATOR OF HOW UNSTABLE THIS ATMOSPHERE IS BECOMING AND THE
POTENTIAL ENERGY THAT IS BUILDING UP FOR THIS THING TO FEED OFF OF
ONCE IT GETS EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND CERTAINLY SETTING THE
STAGE FOR COASTAL BOMBOGENESIS TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLING WITH QPF...AND IT WAS A BIT INTERESTING TO SEE ALL THE
QPF THE GFS MODEL PAINTING OVER OUR CWA THIS MORNING...YET NOT
MUCH WAS OCCURRING...CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN THE MODEL. WHAT REALLY
MADE IT HUMOROUS WAS THE MODEL THEN TOOK THE 4-6 TENTHS OF AN INCH
OF QPF AND CONVERTED IT TO ALL SNOW. ANYONE ISSUING FORECASTS AND
BLINDLY FOLLOWING GUIDANCE THIS MORNING WOULD HAVE THEN
EXPERIENCED A GOOD TASTE OF METEOROLOGICAL/MODEL CANCER...A
GARBAGE IN...GARBAGE OUT SORT OF FORECAST.

QPF ISSUES ASIDE...THE IMPACT FROM THIS STORM FOR OUR LOCAL AREA
WILL BE MINOR COMPARED TO OUR NEIGHBORS TO THE NORTH. I.E. NOTHING
WE HAVN`T SEE BEFORE. IN SUMMARY...A PERIOD OF SNOW IS LIKELY FOR
OUR MOUNTAINS TONIGHT WITH FLURRIES AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
LINGERING INTO TUESDAY. IT WILL BECOME BLUSTERY WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 20MPH...AND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH. A 40 MPH GUST
OVER THE NC/VA/WV HIGHLANDS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. COLDER AIR
SPILLING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS...TO NEAR 30 IN THE PIEDMONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE ON TUESDAY...REMAINING IN THE
20S MOUNTAINS...AND 30S TO NO MORE THAN 40 EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EST MONDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT OUR REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE WITHIN A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST. NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH A ORIGIN ACROSS LAKE
ERIE...WILL BRING MOISTURE UPSLOPE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS...SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH
CAROLINA. ANTICIPATE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ALONG THE PREFERRED
WESTERN SLOPES. AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATEST IN WESTERN GREENBRIER
COUNTY WHERE LESS THAN INCH OF NEW MEASURABLE SNOW IS EXPECTED.
ELSEWHERE...THE SNOW WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF FLURRIES...OR
ACCUMULATING SNOW THAT PRODUCES A DUSTING ON SURFACES. WINDS WILL
GUST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH LESSER
MAGNITUDES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

BY WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE AREA AND LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND VEER MORE NORTHERLY...THUS TURNING OFF
THE UPSLOPE SNOW MACHINE. ANTICIPATE A TREND TOWARD LITTLE OR NO
CLOUD COVER AND WEAKENING WINDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION WHILE OUR NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM HEADS
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOOK FOR WINDS TO BACK
SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD...ALONG WITH AN
ONSET OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. CLOUD COVER WILL START TO INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO THAT BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
REGION. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE IN THE WEST BY
MIDDAY THURSDAY AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM HEADS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS AT THIS TIME TO BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX
IN THE WEST. AS PRECIPITATION SPREADS EAST DURING THE...MILDER AIR
WILL ALLOW FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION
TO PLAIN RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA ONCE WARM AIR ADVECTION STARTS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EST MONDAY...

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO MUCH BELOW THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...ALONG WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY.

UPPER LEVELS WILL BE EVOLVING TO MORE OF A DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM.
THE LATEST INDICATIONS POINT TO A COLDER MORE AMPLIFIED EASTERN TROF
DEVELOPING AS PER THE ECMWF...AND SPLIT FLOW OUT WEST WITH A RIDGE
FOR THE PACIFIC NW AND A CUTOFF LOW REGENERATING OVER THE BAJA
PENINSULA.

THURSDAY NIGHT STARTS OUT WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH FOLLOWED
BY UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS
WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE SNOW SHOWERS AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN
WITH FAIR WEATHER AND COLD TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF THE
WEEKEND.

IT NOW APPEARS THAT A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
ON SUNDAY...BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING VERY STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS TO USHER IN A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR AND COLD
TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH THIS MESSAGE AND NAEFS ANOMALIES NOW SUPPORT THE GFS
TREND TOWARD THIS SOLUTION SO CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN THIS COLD
OUTBREAK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DEEP COASTAL LOW PRESSURE AREA THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS TAF VALID
CYCLE. THE MAIN EFFECTS OF THIS STORM WILL BE FOR THE BIG CITIES
IN THE NORTHEAST. FOR US...WE WILL DEAL WITH A COUPLE OF BANDS OF
SNOW...ONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...AND PERHAPS THE DEFORMATION
ZONE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...WHILE IN THE WEST IS A STRONG UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING SSE FROM THE OH/TN VALLEY TOWARD
GA/SC...THAT WILL MAINLY IMPACT EASTERN TN/FAR SOUTHWEST
VA/NORTHWEST NC OVERNIGHT/EARLY TUE. THIS WOULD PRINCIPALLY IMPACT
TNB...BUT COULD IMPACT LWB/BLF/BCB TO SOME EXTENT...SO HAVE
INCLUDED -SN WITH IFR-LIFR CIGS AND MVFR-IFR VSBYS WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. SOME -SN MAY ALSO IMPACT LYH LATER ON AS THE COASTAL LOW
INTENSIFIES OFF THE DELMARVA. CIGS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN MVFR-IFR MUCH OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT...INCLUDING BLF/LWB. BCB WILL
LIKELY REMAIN MVFR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR OVERNIGHT...BECOMING VFR BY
DAYBREAK TUE. IFR CIGS MAY PERSIST LYH-DAN UNTIL THE COLD FRONT
REACHES THAT AREA BY 02Z. A FEW -SHRA MAY ALSO OCCUR IN THE WARMER
AIR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH 02Z...BUT THIS WILL NOT IMPACT
CIGS/VSBYS. WINDS...NNE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO NW WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE THROUGH 04Z...BECOMING NW ALL AREAS BY OR AFTER 04Z.
SPEEDS 8-12KTS WITH GUSTS 15-20KTS INCREASING OVERNIGHT TO 9-13KTS
WITH GUSTS 17-25KTS.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH 14Z...THEN MEDIUM TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE A QUIET DAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TAF LOCATIONS. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM
ARRIVES ON THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CIGS AND
VSBYS...WITH A CHANCE FOR -SHRA...-SHSN IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
HINTON ALL HAZARDS RADIO...162.425MHZ WAS OFF THE AIR THIS
MORNING. TECHNICIANS INDICATE THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF TREE DAMAGE
FROM ICE IN THE AREA AND THE RADIO WILL CONTINUE EXPERIENCE
INTERMITTENT OUTAGES DUE TO POWER INTERRUPTIONS IN THE AREA.

THE ROANOKE TRANSMITTER...POOR MOUNTAIN 162.475 MHZ...IS ALSO
EXPERIENCING PROBLEMS WITH INTERMITTENT OUTAGES. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS EXIST ON POOR MOUNTAIN WITH THE POWER BEING INTERRUPTED
BY TREE DAMAGE FROM ICE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ019-020.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ015.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...MBS/PM
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...PM/RAB
EQUIPMENT...PM



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 262244
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
544 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY TONIGHT AS
IT TRACKS NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND
COASTS. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON
WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN FORECAST CHANGE WAS TO START TRIMMING BACK ON INHERITED
WINTER WX ADVSRYS AS THE LIKELIHOOD FOR 1-3IN OF SNOW HAS DECREASED
OVER MANY AREAS. WPC AND MUCH OF 12Z GUIDANCE SUPPORT THIS
IDEA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADVSRY-LEVEL SNOWFALL STILL OVER
THE LWR MD ERN SHORE WHERE 2-4IN IS PSBL. DO NOT THINK NORFOLK AND
RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE AOA 2IN...BUT WITH THE HEADLINE
ALREADY OUT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO AN INCH TO PSBLY CAUSE
SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...WILL KEEP THOSE AREAS
(AND AREAS N AND E) IN THE ADVSRY FOR NOW. ANOTHER ISSUE IS
TEMPS...WITH PARTS OF THE AREA STAYING JUST A TAD ABOVE FREEZING.
WILL UPDATE AS NEEDED THIS EVENG AND TNGT.

AS FOR PCPN...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDS DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS
ASIDE FM WORCESTER CNTY WHERE AN AREA OF RA HAS BEEN PERSISTENT.
BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES THIS EVENG AS SFC LO PRES DEVELOPS
OFFSHORE. POPS RANGE FM 40-50% SW TO 70-80% NE. THE RA WILL
TRANSITION TO A RA/SN MIX THEN SN FM NW TO SE TNGT. TOTAL QPF WILL
BE UP TO A QUARTER INCH. LO TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 20S FAR
NW TO MID 30S SE. PCPN WILL END FM W TO E ON TUE AS THE SFC LO
ADVANCES TOWARDS THE GULF OF ME AND NW CAA FLOW LEADS TO GUSTS TO
25-30 MPH NR THE CST AND LWR ERN SHORE. HI TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID
30S TO LWR 40S UNDER A CLOUDY-MSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED CSTL LO PULLS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AS SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W. EXPECT
DECREASING CLOUDS TUE NIGHT WITH NW WINDS. LO TEMPS WILL RANGE
THRU THE 20S...WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.
COOL TEMPS INTO WED AS WELL...WITH HIGHS ONLY RANGING FM THE MID
30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR 30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE.
DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH SIMILAR TEMPS AS TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE
MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST STATES SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A CHC OF RAIN IS IN
THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW PSBL FAR NRN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW AND THEN
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK MOVING FRONTAL
WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT TO SEA MONDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE
FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 17Z...A LULL IN THE PCPN PATTERN AND LARGE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER ARE TEMPORARY. AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OFF THE NC/VA COAST
RAIN IS FORECAST TO REDEVELOP LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING AND THEN
CHANGE TO SNOW OVERNIGHT. SNOWFALL WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AT
THE TAF SITES EXCEPT AT SBY WHERE A 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY
TUESDAY MORNING.

IFR STRATUS MOVED INTO SBY FROM THE NORTH AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN.
IFR STRATUS JUST NW OF RIC SHOULD STAY TO THE WEST FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS ALTHOUGH INCLUDED TEMPO MVFR DUE TO A PERSISTENT SCT LAYER
THERE. ELSEWHERE...SOLID VFR CONDS SHOULD HANG ON MOST OF THE AFTN.
AS PCPN DEVELOPS TOWARD EVENING...CONDS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR THIS
EVENING...EXCEPT KEPT ECG NO LOWER THAN MVFR. PCPN WINDS DOWN AND
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. NORTH WINDS WILL
PREVAIL WHICH WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES TOWARD THE COAST. WINDS TREND
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK WITH ONLY
SMALL CHANCES FOR PCPN...MAINLY LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA HEADLINES FORECAST THRU WEDS.

LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED JUST OFF THE NC/VA COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THE LOW HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY...RESULTING IN AN UPTICK OF N-NE
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. BEGINNING TO SEE 20 KT GUSTS OVER THE
BAY/LOWER JAMES WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KT OVER THE NRN COASTAL
WATERS. SEAS HAVE RESPONDED...BUILDING TO 7 FT AT BUOY 44009. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP THRU LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS (GUSTS TO 30 KT) EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WATERS TONIGHT AS
THE LOW INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY AND LIFTS AWAY FROM THE COAST. LOW LEVEL
CAA ALSO INTENSIFIES. GALE CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN COASTAL WATERS...CLOSEST TO THE STRONGEST
GRADIENT WINDS AND CAA. SEAS BUILD TO 7 TO 12 FT IN THE NRN WATERS
AND 5 TO 8 FT IN THE SRN WATERS TONIGHT. AS THE LOW LIFTS
AWAY...FLOW BACKS TO THE NW...KEEPING HIGH SEAS FROM REACHING THE
BEACHES. NO HIGH SURF PLANNED ATTM. LITTLE CHANGE TUES AS STRONG NW
FLOW PERSISTS BTWN LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OH VALLEY. GALE CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE NRN COASTAL
WATERS THRU EARLY TUES EVENING...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 5-8 FT TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
FINALLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATE WEDS...ALLOWING WINDS TO
DIMINISH AOB 15 KT. SEAS SUBSIDE THRU WEDS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE WATERS THURS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT CLIPPER FRONT
SET TO CROSS THE WATERS THURS NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF STRONG NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS. TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST
TO REACH 1.5 TO 2.0 FT IN THE LOWER BAY AND 2.0 TO 2.5 FT FOR THE
COASTAL AREAS OF THE ERN SHORE. MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS ARE
ANTICIPATED AT OCEAN CITY INLET...WITH A WATER LEVEL OF 4.9 FT.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND DOWN FROM MODERATE FLOODING...WHICH
MAKES SENSE GIVEN A MORE NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND DIRECTION. THE
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY. WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW MINOR
FLOODING THRESHOLDS IN THE LOWER BAY...BUT WILL REACH SLIGHTLY
ABOVE HIGHEST ASTRO TIDE. ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGH ANOMALIES ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOMALIES DROP OFF TUE NGT/WED AS
THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     TUESDAY FOR MDZ021>025.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR MDZ025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ081-089-090-093.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ091-094>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ063-064-
     070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>638-
     654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 262244
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
544 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY TONIGHT AS
IT TRACKS NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND
COASTS. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON
WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN FORECAST CHANGE WAS TO START TRIMMING BACK ON INHERITED
WINTER WX ADVSRYS AS THE LIKELIHOOD FOR 1-3IN OF SNOW HAS DECREASED
OVER MANY AREAS. WPC AND MUCH OF 12Z GUIDANCE SUPPORT THIS
IDEA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADVSRY-LEVEL SNOWFALL STILL OVER
THE LWR MD ERN SHORE WHERE 2-4IN IS PSBL. DO NOT THINK NORFOLK AND
RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE AOA 2IN...BUT WITH THE HEADLINE
ALREADY OUT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO AN INCH TO PSBLY CAUSE
SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...WILL KEEP THOSE AREAS
(AND AREAS N AND E) IN THE ADVSRY FOR NOW. ANOTHER ISSUE IS
TEMPS...WITH PARTS OF THE AREA STAYING JUST A TAD ABOVE FREEZING.
WILL UPDATE AS NEEDED THIS EVENG AND TNGT.

AS FOR PCPN...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDS DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS
ASIDE FM WORCESTER CNTY WHERE AN AREA OF RA HAS BEEN PERSISTENT.
BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES THIS EVENG AS SFC LO PRES DEVELOPS
OFFSHORE. POPS RANGE FM 40-50% SW TO 70-80% NE. THE RA WILL
TRANSITION TO A RA/SN MIX THEN SN FM NW TO SE TNGT. TOTAL QPF WILL
BE UP TO A QUARTER INCH. LO TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 20S FAR
NW TO MID 30S SE. PCPN WILL END FM W TO E ON TUE AS THE SFC LO
ADVANCES TOWARDS THE GULF OF ME AND NW CAA FLOW LEADS TO GUSTS TO
25-30 MPH NR THE CST AND LWR ERN SHORE. HI TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID
30S TO LWR 40S UNDER A CLOUDY-MSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED CSTL LO PULLS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AS SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W. EXPECT
DECREASING CLOUDS TUE NIGHT WITH NW WINDS. LO TEMPS WILL RANGE
THRU THE 20S...WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.
COOL TEMPS INTO WED AS WELL...WITH HIGHS ONLY RANGING FM THE MID
30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR 30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE.
DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH SIMILAR TEMPS AS TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE
MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST STATES SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A CHC OF RAIN IS IN
THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW PSBL FAR NRN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW AND THEN
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK MOVING FRONTAL
WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT TO SEA MONDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE
FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 17Z...A LULL IN THE PCPN PATTERN AND LARGE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER ARE TEMPORARY. AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OFF THE NC/VA COAST
RAIN IS FORECAST TO REDEVELOP LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING AND THEN
CHANGE TO SNOW OVERNIGHT. SNOWFALL WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AT
THE TAF SITES EXCEPT AT SBY WHERE A 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY
TUESDAY MORNING.

IFR STRATUS MOVED INTO SBY FROM THE NORTH AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN.
IFR STRATUS JUST NW OF RIC SHOULD STAY TO THE WEST FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS ALTHOUGH INCLUDED TEMPO MVFR DUE TO A PERSISTENT SCT LAYER
THERE. ELSEWHERE...SOLID VFR CONDS SHOULD HANG ON MOST OF THE AFTN.
AS PCPN DEVELOPS TOWARD EVENING...CONDS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR THIS
EVENING...EXCEPT KEPT ECG NO LOWER THAN MVFR. PCPN WINDS DOWN AND
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. NORTH WINDS WILL
PREVAIL WHICH WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES TOWARD THE COAST. WINDS TREND
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK WITH ONLY
SMALL CHANCES FOR PCPN...MAINLY LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA HEADLINES FORECAST THRU WEDS.

LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED JUST OFF THE NC/VA COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THE LOW HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY...RESULTING IN AN UPTICK OF N-NE
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. BEGINNING TO SEE 20 KT GUSTS OVER THE
BAY/LOWER JAMES WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KT OVER THE NRN COASTAL
WATERS. SEAS HAVE RESPONDED...BUILDING TO 7 FT AT BUOY 44009. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP THRU LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS (GUSTS TO 30 KT) EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WATERS TONIGHT AS
THE LOW INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY AND LIFTS AWAY FROM THE COAST. LOW LEVEL
CAA ALSO INTENSIFIES. GALE CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN COASTAL WATERS...CLOSEST TO THE STRONGEST
GRADIENT WINDS AND CAA. SEAS BUILD TO 7 TO 12 FT IN THE NRN WATERS
AND 5 TO 8 FT IN THE SRN WATERS TONIGHT. AS THE LOW LIFTS
AWAY...FLOW BACKS TO THE NW...KEEPING HIGH SEAS FROM REACHING THE
BEACHES. NO HIGH SURF PLANNED ATTM. LITTLE CHANGE TUES AS STRONG NW
FLOW PERSISTS BTWN LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OH VALLEY. GALE CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE NRN COASTAL
WATERS THRU EARLY TUES EVENING...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 5-8 FT TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
FINALLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATE WEDS...ALLOWING WINDS TO
DIMINISH AOB 15 KT. SEAS SUBSIDE THRU WEDS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE WATERS THURS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT CLIPPER FRONT
SET TO CROSS THE WATERS THURS NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF STRONG NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS. TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST
TO REACH 1.5 TO 2.0 FT IN THE LOWER BAY AND 2.0 TO 2.5 FT FOR THE
COASTAL AREAS OF THE ERN SHORE. MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS ARE
ANTICIPATED AT OCEAN CITY INLET...WITH A WATER LEVEL OF 4.9 FT.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND DOWN FROM MODERATE FLOODING...WHICH
MAKES SENSE GIVEN A MORE NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND DIRECTION. THE
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY. WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW MINOR
FLOODING THRESHOLDS IN THE LOWER BAY...BUT WILL REACH SLIGHTLY
ABOVE HIGHEST ASTRO TIDE. ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGH ANOMALIES ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOMALIES DROP OFF TUE NGT/WED AS
THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     TUESDAY FOR MDZ021>025.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR MDZ025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ081-089-090-093.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ091-094>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ063-064-
     070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>638-
     654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KRNK 262222
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
522 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER VIRGINIA WILL DEVELOP INTO A MAJOR WINTER STORM
AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THIS STORM WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 PM EST MONDAY...

LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY PASSING OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA WITH
UPPER TROF AXIS AND COLDER AIR SPILLING OVER THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND
THIS COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CAUSE FALLING TEMPERATURES FARTHER
EAST AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY
DROPPED INTO THE 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS. READINGS IN THE 40S WERE
FOUND OVER THE PIEDMONT OF NC AND INTO SOUTHSIDE VA...BUT THESE
NUMBERS WILL TAKE A TUMBLE TONIGHT.

THROUGH 4PM TODAY...LITTLE OR NO SNOW HAD ACCUMULATED ANYWHERE
WITHING THE CWA...WITH MAINLY A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND RAIN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AS TEMERATURES FALL
THIS EVENING...ANY LINGERING RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW. THE
DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE WV HIGHLANDS
WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. LATER TONIGHT THERE WILL BE A SECONDARY SURGE OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE
NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ACCUMULATING
SNOW FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA HIGH COUNTRY AND MOUNT ROGERS IN
VIRGINIA. SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO COME INTO PLAY
LATE TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW 20 DEG F...YEILDING 2 TO 1.
AS SUCH...THINK IT IS FEASIBLE TO SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW OVER
THE NC HIGH COUNTRY...POSSIBLY MORE AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 4000 FT.

OVERALL THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A BIG SNOW PRODUCER FOR
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE MAIN MEDIA FOCUS WILL BE ON COASTAL
NEW ENGLAND WHERE THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL WRAP UP INTO A
MAJOR WINTER STORM. FOR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WE GET TO DEAL
WITH THE BACKLASH WINDS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. THEIR IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE COASTAL STORM TO
PENETRATE AS FAR SOUTH AS OUR NORTHEASTERN CWA LATE TONIGHT...SO
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AS THERE MAY BE A NEED FOR
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES FOR AREAS NORTHEAST OF LYNCHBURG...
SPECIFICALLY APPOMATTOX...BUCKINGHAM AND POINTS NORTH AND EAST.

EVEN THOUGH WE ARE NOT ADVERTISING MUCH PRECIP WITHIN OUR LOCAL
FORECAST AREA...THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS VERY DYNAMIC...LOTS OF
ENERGY ALOFT THAT WILL CAUSE THIS STORM TO DEEPEN QUICKLY AS IT
MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. HAVE EVEN SEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
WITHIN THE SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT TODAY WHICH IS
AN INDICATOR OF HOW UNSTABLE THIS ATMOSPHERE IS BECOMING AND THE
POTENTIAL ENERGY THAT IS BUILDING UP FOR THIS THING TO FEED OFF OF
ONCE IT GETS EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND CERTAINLY SETTING THE
STAGE FOR COASTAL BOMBOGENESIS TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLING WITH QPF...AND IT WAS A BIT INTERESTING TO SEE ALL THE
QPF THE GFS MODEL PAINTING OVER OUR CWA THIS MORNING...YET NOT
MUCH WAS OCCURRING...CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN THE MODEL. WHAT REALLY
MADE IT HUMOROUS WAS THE MODEL THEN TOOK THE 4-6 TENTHS OF AN INCH
OF QPF AND CONVERTED IT TO ALL SNOW. ANYONE ISSUING FORECASTS AND
BLINDLY FOLLOWING GUIDANCE THIS MORNING WOULD HAVE THEN
EXPERIENCED A GOOD TASTE OF METEOROLOGICAL/MODEL CANCER...A
GARBAGE IN...GARBAGE OUT SORT OF FORECAST.

QPF ISSUES ASIDE...THE IMPACT FROM THIS STORM FOR OUR LOCAL AREA
WILL BE MINOR COMPARED TO OUR NEIGHBORS TO THE NORTH. I.E. NOTHING
WE HAVN`T SEE BEFORE. IN SUMMARY...A PERIOD OF SNOW IS LIKELY FOR
OUR MOUNTAINS TONIGHT WITH FLURRIES AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
LINGERING INTO TUESDAY. IT WILL BECOME BLUSTERY WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 20MPH...AND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH. A 40 MPH GUST
OVER THE NC/VA/WV HIGHLANDS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. COLDER AIR
SPILLING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS...TO NEAR 30 IN THE PIEDMONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE ON TUESDAY...REMAINING IN THE
20S MOUNTAINS...AND 30S TO NO MORE THAN 40 EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EST MONDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT OUR REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE WITHIN A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST. NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH A ORIGIN ACROSS LAKE
ERIE...WILL BRING MOISTURE UPSLOPE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS...SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH
CAROLINA. ANTICIPATE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ALONG THE PREFERRED
WESTERN SLOPES. AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATEST IN WESTERN GREENBRIER
COUNTY WHERE LESS THAN INCH OF NEW MEASURABLE SNOW IS EXPECTED.
ELSEWHERE...THE SNOW WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF FLURRIES...OR
ACCUMULATING SNOW THAT PRODUCES A DUSTING ON SURFACES. WINDS WILL
GUST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH LESSER
MAGNITUDES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

BY WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE AREA AND LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND VEER MORE NORTHERLY...THUS TURNING OFF
THE UPSLOPE SNOW MACHINE. ANTICIPATE A TREND TOWARD LITTLE OR NO
CLOUD COVER AND WEAKENING WINDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION WHILE OUR NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM HEADS
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOOK FOR WINDS TO BACK
SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD...ALONG WITH AN
ONSET OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. CLOUD COVER WILL START TO INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO THAT BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
REGION. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE IN THE WEST BY
MIDDAY THURSDAY AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM HEADS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS AT THIS TIME TO BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX
IN THE WEST. AS PRECIPITATION SPREADS EAST DURING THE...MILDER AIR
WILL ALLOW FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION
TO PLAIN RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA ONCE WARM AIR ADVECTION STARTS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EST MONDAY...

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO MUCH BELOW THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...ALONG WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY.

UPPER LEVELS WILL BE EVOLVING TO MORE OF A DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM.
THE LATEST INDICATIONS POINT TO A COLDER MORE AMPLIFIED EASTERN TROF
DEVELOPING AS PER THE ECMWF...AND SPLIT FLOW OUT WEST WITH A RIDGE
FOR THE PACIFIC NW AND A CUTOFF LOW REGENERATING OVER THE BAJA
PENINSULA.

THURSDAY NIGHT STARTS OUT WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH FOLLOWED
BY UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS
WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE SNOW SHOWERS AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN
WITH FAIR WEATHER AND COLD TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF THE
WEEKEND.

IT NOW APPEARS THAT A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
ON SUNDAY...BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING VERY STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS TO USHER IN A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR AND COLD
TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH THIS MESSAGE AND NAEFS ANOMALIES NOW SUPPORT THE GFS
TREND TOWARD THIS SOLUTION SO CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN THIS COLD
OUTBREAK.


&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EST MONDAY...

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL MOVE NORTHEAST DEVELOPING
INTO A MAJOR COASTAL STORM FOR NEW ENGLAND. AS THE STORM
STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL
ADVECT INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUPPORTING SNOW SHOWERS AND
BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS.

FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS PER A SHALLOW MOIST NORTHEAST WIND. ONCE THE
NORTHWEST WIND DEVELOPS THIS EVENING...THIS CLOUD LAYER SHOULD
LIFT. HOWEVER...CLOUD BASES OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN LOW
WITH PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES.

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR AREAS OF MVFR AND OCNL IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS LINGERING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH TUESDAY.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ON TUESDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
ACROSS KBLF/KLWB AND PERHAPS EVEN KBCB DUE TO SCATTERED UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS. EASTERN TAF LOCATIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR ON TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE A QUIET DAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TAF LOCATIONS. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM
ARRIVES ON THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND
VSBYS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
HINTON ALL HAZARDS RADIO...162.425MHZ WAS OFF THE AIR THIS
MORNING. TECHNICIANS INDICATE THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF TREE DAMAGE
FROM ICE IN THE AREA AND THE RADIO WILL CONTINUE EXPERIENCE
INTERMITTENT OUTAGES DUE TO POWER INTERUPTIONS IN THE AREA.

THE ROANOKE TRANSMITTER...POOR MOUNTAIN 162.475 MHZ...IS ALSO
EXPERIENCING PROBLEMS WITH INTERMITTENT OUTAGES. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS EXIST ON POOR MOUNTAIN WITH THE POWER BEING INTERRUPTED
BY TREE DAMAGE FROM ICE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ019-020.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ015.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...PM
EQUIPMENT...PM



000
FXUS61 KRNK 262222
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
522 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER VIRGINIA WILL DEVELOP INTO A MAJOR WINTER STORM
AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THIS STORM WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 PM EST MONDAY...

LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY PASSING OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA WITH
UPPER TROF AXIS AND COLDER AIR SPILLING OVER THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND
THIS COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CAUSE FALLING TEMPERATURES FARTHER
EAST AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY
DROPPED INTO THE 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS. READINGS IN THE 40S WERE
FOUND OVER THE PIEDMONT OF NC AND INTO SOUTHSIDE VA...BUT THESE
NUMBERS WILL TAKE A TUMBLE TONIGHT.

THROUGH 4PM TODAY...LITTLE OR NO SNOW HAD ACCUMULATED ANYWHERE
WITHING THE CWA...WITH MAINLY A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND RAIN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AS TEMERATURES FALL
THIS EVENING...ANY LINGERING RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW. THE
DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE WV HIGHLANDS
WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. LATER TONIGHT THERE WILL BE A SECONDARY SURGE OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE
NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ACCUMULATING
SNOW FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA HIGH COUNTRY AND MOUNT ROGERS IN
VIRGINIA. SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO COME INTO PLAY
LATE TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW 20 DEG F...YEILDING 2 TO 1.
AS SUCH...THINK IT IS FEASIBLE TO SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW OVER
THE NC HIGH COUNTRY...POSSIBLY MORE AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 4000 FT.

OVERALL THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A BIG SNOW PRODUCER FOR
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE MAIN MEDIA FOCUS WILL BE ON COASTAL
NEW ENGLAND WHERE THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL WRAP UP INTO A
MAJOR WINTER STORM. FOR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WE GET TO DEAL
WITH THE BACKLASH WINDS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. THEIR IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE COASTAL STORM TO
PENETRATE AS FAR SOUTH AS OUR NORTHEASTERN CWA LATE TONIGHT...SO
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AS THERE MAY BE A NEED FOR
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES FOR AREAS NORTHEAST OF LYNCHBURG...
SPECIFICALLY APPOMATTOX...BUCKINGHAM AND POINTS NORTH AND EAST.

EVEN THOUGH WE ARE NOT ADVERTISING MUCH PRECIP WITHIN OUR LOCAL
FORECAST AREA...THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS VERY DYNAMIC...LOTS OF
ENERGY ALOFT THAT WILL CAUSE THIS STORM TO DEEPEN QUICKLY AS IT
MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. HAVE EVEN SEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
WITHIN THE SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT TODAY WHICH IS
AN INDICATOR OF HOW UNSTABLE THIS ATMOSPHERE IS BECOMING AND THE
POTENTIAL ENERGY THAT IS BUILDING UP FOR THIS THING TO FEED OFF OF
ONCE IT GETS EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND CERTAINLY SETTING THE
STAGE FOR COASTAL BOMBOGENESIS TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLING WITH QPF...AND IT WAS A BIT INTERESTING TO SEE ALL THE
QPF THE GFS MODEL PAINTING OVER OUR CWA THIS MORNING...YET NOT
MUCH WAS OCCURRING...CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN THE MODEL. WHAT REALLY
MADE IT HUMOROUS WAS THE MODEL THEN TOOK THE 4-6 TENTHS OF AN INCH
OF QPF AND CONVERTED IT TO ALL SNOW. ANYONE ISSUING FORECASTS AND
BLINDLY FOLLOWING GUIDANCE THIS MORNING WOULD HAVE THEN
EXPERIENCED A GOOD TASTE OF METEOROLOGICAL/MODEL CANCER...A
GARBAGE IN...GARBAGE OUT SORT OF FORECAST.

QPF ISSUES ASIDE...THE IMPACT FROM THIS STORM FOR OUR LOCAL AREA
WILL BE MINOR COMPARED TO OUR NEIGHBORS TO THE NORTH. I.E. NOTHING
WE HAVN`T SEE BEFORE. IN SUMMARY...A PERIOD OF SNOW IS LIKELY FOR
OUR MOUNTAINS TONIGHT WITH FLURRIES AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
LINGERING INTO TUESDAY. IT WILL BECOME BLUSTERY WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 20MPH...AND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH. A 40 MPH GUST
OVER THE NC/VA/WV HIGHLANDS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. COLDER AIR
SPILLING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS...TO NEAR 30 IN THE PIEDMONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE ON TUESDAY...REMAINING IN THE
20S MOUNTAINS...AND 30S TO NO MORE THAN 40 EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EST MONDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT OUR REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE WITHIN A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST. NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH A ORIGIN ACROSS LAKE
ERIE...WILL BRING MOISTURE UPSLOPE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS...SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH
CAROLINA. ANTICIPATE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ALONG THE PREFERRED
WESTERN SLOPES. AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATEST IN WESTERN GREENBRIER
COUNTY WHERE LESS THAN INCH OF NEW MEASURABLE SNOW IS EXPECTED.
ELSEWHERE...THE SNOW WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF FLURRIES...OR
ACCUMULATING SNOW THAT PRODUCES A DUSTING ON SURFACES. WINDS WILL
GUST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH LESSER
MAGNITUDES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

BY WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE AREA AND LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND VEER MORE NORTHERLY...THUS TURNING OFF
THE UPSLOPE SNOW MACHINE. ANTICIPATE A TREND TOWARD LITTLE OR NO
CLOUD COVER AND WEAKENING WINDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION WHILE OUR NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM HEADS
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOOK FOR WINDS TO BACK
SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD...ALONG WITH AN
ONSET OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. CLOUD COVER WILL START TO INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO THAT BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
REGION. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE IN THE WEST BY
MIDDAY THURSDAY AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM HEADS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS AT THIS TIME TO BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX
IN THE WEST. AS PRECIPITATION SPREADS EAST DURING THE...MILDER AIR
WILL ALLOW FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION
TO PLAIN RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA ONCE WARM AIR ADVECTION STARTS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EST MONDAY...

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO MUCH BELOW THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...ALONG WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY.

UPPER LEVELS WILL BE EVOLVING TO MORE OF A DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM.
THE LATEST INDICATIONS POINT TO A COLDER MORE AMPLIFIED EASTERN TROF
DEVELOPING AS PER THE ECMWF...AND SPLIT FLOW OUT WEST WITH A RIDGE
FOR THE PACIFIC NW AND A CUTOFF LOW REGENERATING OVER THE BAJA
PENINSULA.

THURSDAY NIGHT STARTS OUT WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH FOLLOWED
BY UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS
WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE SNOW SHOWERS AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN
WITH FAIR WEATHER AND COLD TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF THE
WEEKEND.

IT NOW APPEARS THAT A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
ON SUNDAY...BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING VERY STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS TO USHER IN A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR AND COLD
TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH THIS MESSAGE AND NAEFS ANOMALIES NOW SUPPORT THE GFS
TREND TOWARD THIS SOLUTION SO CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN THIS COLD
OUTBREAK.


&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EST MONDAY...

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL MOVE NORTHEAST DEVELOPING
INTO A MAJOR COASTAL STORM FOR NEW ENGLAND. AS THE STORM
STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL
ADVECT INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUPPORTING SNOW SHOWERS AND
BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS.

FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS PER A SHALLOW MOIST NORTHEAST WIND. ONCE THE
NORTHWEST WIND DEVELOPS THIS EVENING...THIS CLOUD LAYER SHOULD
LIFT. HOWEVER...CLOUD BASES OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN LOW
WITH PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES.

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR AREAS OF MVFR AND OCNL IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS LINGERING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH TUESDAY.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ON TUESDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
ACROSS KBLF/KLWB AND PERHAPS EVEN KBCB DUE TO SCATTERED UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS. EASTERN TAF LOCATIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR ON TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE A QUIET DAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TAF LOCATIONS. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM
ARRIVES ON THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND
VSBYS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
HINTON ALL HAZARDS RADIO...162.425MHZ WAS OFF THE AIR THIS
MORNING. TECHNICIANS INDICATE THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF TREE DAMAGE
FROM ICE IN THE AREA AND THE RADIO WILL CONTINUE EXPERIENCE
INTERMITTENT OUTAGES DUE TO POWER INTERUPTIONS IN THE AREA.

THE ROANOKE TRANSMITTER...POOR MOUNTAIN 162.475 MHZ...IS ALSO
EXPERIENCING PROBLEMS WITH INTERMITTENT OUTAGES. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS EXIST ON POOR MOUNTAIN WITH THE POWER BEING INTERRUPTED
BY TREE DAMAGE FROM ICE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ019-020.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ015.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...PM
EQUIPMENT...PM



000
FXUS61 KRNK 262222
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
522 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER VIRGINIA WILL DEVELOP INTO A MAJOR WINTER STORM
AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THIS STORM WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 PM EST MONDAY...

LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY PASSING OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA WITH
UPPER TROF AXIS AND COLDER AIR SPILLING OVER THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND
THIS COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CAUSE FALLING TEMPERATURES FARTHER
EAST AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY
DROPPED INTO THE 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS. READINGS IN THE 40S WERE
FOUND OVER THE PIEDMONT OF NC AND INTO SOUTHSIDE VA...BUT THESE
NUMBERS WILL TAKE A TUMBLE TONIGHT.

THROUGH 4PM TODAY...LITTLE OR NO SNOW HAD ACCUMULATED ANYWHERE
WITHING THE CWA...WITH MAINLY A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND RAIN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AS TEMERATURES FALL
THIS EVENING...ANY LINGERING RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW. THE
DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE WV HIGHLANDS
WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. LATER TONIGHT THERE WILL BE A SECONDARY SURGE OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE
NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ACCUMULATING
SNOW FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA HIGH COUNTRY AND MOUNT ROGERS IN
VIRGINIA. SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO COME INTO PLAY
LATE TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW 20 DEG F...YEILDING 2 TO 1.
AS SUCH...THINK IT IS FEASIBLE TO SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW OVER
THE NC HIGH COUNTRY...POSSIBLY MORE AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 4000 FT.

OVERALL THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A BIG SNOW PRODUCER FOR
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE MAIN MEDIA FOCUS WILL BE ON COASTAL
NEW ENGLAND WHERE THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL WRAP UP INTO A
MAJOR WINTER STORM. FOR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WE GET TO DEAL
WITH THE BACKLASH WINDS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. THEIR IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE COASTAL STORM TO
PENETRATE AS FAR SOUTH AS OUR NORTHEASTERN CWA LATE TONIGHT...SO
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AS THERE MAY BE A NEED FOR
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES FOR AREAS NORTHEAST OF LYNCHBURG...
SPECIFICALLY APPOMATTOX...BUCKINGHAM AND POINTS NORTH AND EAST.

EVEN THOUGH WE ARE NOT ADVERTISING MUCH PRECIP WITHIN OUR LOCAL
FORECAST AREA...THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS VERY DYNAMIC...LOTS OF
ENERGY ALOFT THAT WILL CAUSE THIS STORM TO DEEPEN QUICKLY AS IT
MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. HAVE EVEN SEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
WITHIN THE SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT TODAY WHICH IS
AN INDICATOR OF HOW UNSTABLE THIS ATMOSPHERE IS BECOMING AND THE
POTENTIAL ENERGY THAT IS BUILDING UP FOR THIS THING TO FEED OFF OF
ONCE IT GETS EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND CERTAINLY SETTING THE
STAGE FOR COASTAL BOMBOGENESIS TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLING WITH QPF...AND IT WAS A BIT INTERESTING TO SEE ALL THE
QPF THE GFS MODEL PAINTING OVER OUR CWA THIS MORNING...YET NOT
MUCH WAS OCCURRING...CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN THE MODEL. WHAT REALLY
MADE IT HUMOROUS WAS THE MODEL THEN TOOK THE 4-6 TENTHS OF AN INCH
OF QPF AND CONVERTED IT TO ALL SNOW. ANYONE ISSUING FORECASTS AND
BLINDLY FOLLOWING GUIDANCE THIS MORNING WOULD HAVE THEN
EXPERIENCED A GOOD TASTE OF METEOROLOGICAL/MODEL CANCER...A
GARBAGE IN...GARBAGE OUT SORT OF FORECAST.

QPF ISSUES ASIDE...THE IMPACT FROM THIS STORM FOR OUR LOCAL AREA
WILL BE MINOR COMPARED TO OUR NEIGHBORS TO THE NORTH. I.E. NOTHING
WE HAVN`T SEE BEFORE. IN SUMMARY...A PERIOD OF SNOW IS LIKELY FOR
OUR MOUNTAINS TONIGHT WITH FLURRIES AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
LINGERING INTO TUESDAY. IT WILL BECOME BLUSTERY WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 20MPH...AND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH. A 40 MPH GUST
OVER THE NC/VA/WV HIGHLANDS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. COLDER AIR
SPILLING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS...TO NEAR 30 IN THE PIEDMONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE ON TUESDAY...REMAINING IN THE
20S MOUNTAINS...AND 30S TO NO MORE THAN 40 EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EST MONDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT OUR REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE WITHIN A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST. NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH A ORIGIN ACROSS LAKE
ERIE...WILL BRING MOISTURE UPSLOPE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS...SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH
CAROLINA. ANTICIPATE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ALONG THE PREFERRED
WESTERN SLOPES. AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATEST IN WESTERN GREENBRIER
COUNTY WHERE LESS THAN INCH OF NEW MEASURABLE SNOW IS EXPECTED.
ELSEWHERE...THE SNOW WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF FLURRIES...OR
ACCUMULATING SNOW THAT PRODUCES A DUSTING ON SURFACES. WINDS WILL
GUST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH LESSER
MAGNITUDES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

BY WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE AREA AND LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND VEER MORE NORTHERLY...THUS TURNING OFF
THE UPSLOPE SNOW MACHINE. ANTICIPATE A TREND TOWARD LITTLE OR NO
CLOUD COVER AND WEAKENING WINDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION WHILE OUR NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM HEADS
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOOK FOR WINDS TO BACK
SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD...ALONG WITH AN
ONSET OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. CLOUD COVER WILL START TO INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO THAT BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
REGION. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE IN THE WEST BY
MIDDAY THURSDAY AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM HEADS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS AT THIS TIME TO BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX
IN THE WEST. AS PRECIPITATION SPREADS EAST DURING THE...MILDER AIR
WILL ALLOW FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION
TO PLAIN RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA ONCE WARM AIR ADVECTION STARTS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EST MONDAY...

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO MUCH BELOW THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...ALONG WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY.

UPPER LEVELS WILL BE EVOLVING TO MORE OF A DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM.
THE LATEST INDICATIONS POINT TO A COLDER MORE AMPLIFIED EASTERN TROF
DEVELOPING AS PER THE ECMWF...AND SPLIT FLOW OUT WEST WITH A RIDGE
FOR THE PACIFIC NW AND A CUTOFF LOW REGENERATING OVER THE BAJA
PENINSULA.

THURSDAY NIGHT STARTS OUT WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH FOLLOWED
BY UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS
WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE SNOW SHOWERS AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN
WITH FAIR WEATHER AND COLD TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF THE
WEEKEND.

IT NOW APPEARS THAT A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
ON SUNDAY...BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING VERY STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS TO USHER IN A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR AND COLD
TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH THIS MESSAGE AND NAEFS ANOMALIES NOW SUPPORT THE GFS
TREND TOWARD THIS SOLUTION SO CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN THIS COLD
OUTBREAK.


&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EST MONDAY...

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL MOVE NORTHEAST DEVELOPING
INTO A MAJOR COASTAL STORM FOR NEW ENGLAND. AS THE STORM
STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL
ADVECT INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUPPORTING SNOW SHOWERS AND
BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS.

FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS PER A SHALLOW MOIST NORTHEAST WIND. ONCE THE
NORTHWEST WIND DEVELOPS THIS EVENING...THIS CLOUD LAYER SHOULD
LIFT. HOWEVER...CLOUD BASES OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN LOW
WITH PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES.

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR AREAS OF MVFR AND OCNL IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS LINGERING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH TUESDAY.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ON TUESDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
ACROSS KBLF/KLWB AND PERHAPS EVEN KBCB DUE TO SCATTERED UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS. EASTERN TAF LOCATIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR ON TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE A QUIET DAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TAF LOCATIONS. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM
ARRIVES ON THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND
VSBYS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
HINTON ALL HAZARDS RADIO...162.425MHZ WAS OFF THE AIR THIS
MORNING. TECHNICIANS INDICATE THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF TREE DAMAGE
FROM ICE IN THE AREA AND THE RADIO WILL CONTINUE EXPERIENCE
INTERMITTENT OUTAGES DUE TO POWER INTERUPTIONS IN THE AREA.

THE ROANOKE TRANSMITTER...POOR MOUNTAIN 162.475 MHZ...IS ALSO
EXPERIENCING PROBLEMS WITH INTERMITTENT OUTAGES. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS EXIST ON POOR MOUNTAIN WITH THE POWER BEING INTERRUPTED
BY TREE DAMAGE FROM ICE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ019-020.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ015.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...PM
EQUIPMENT...PM



000
FXUS61 KRNK 262222
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
522 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER VIRGINIA WILL DEVELOP INTO A MAJOR WINTER STORM
AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THIS STORM WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 PM EST MONDAY...

LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY PASSING OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA WITH
UPPER TROF AXIS AND COLDER AIR SPILLING OVER THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND
THIS COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CAUSE FALLING TEMPERATURES FARTHER
EAST AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY
DROPPED INTO THE 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS. READINGS IN THE 40S WERE
FOUND OVER THE PIEDMONT OF NC AND INTO SOUTHSIDE VA...BUT THESE
NUMBERS WILL TAKE A TUMBLE TONIGHT.

THROUGH 4PM TODAY...LITTLE OR NO SNOW HAD ACCUMULATED ANYWHERE
WITHING THE CWA...WITH MAINLY A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND RAIN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AS TEMERATURES FALL
THIS EVENING...ANY LINGERING RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW. THE
DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE WV HIGHLANDS
WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. LATER TONIGHT THERE WILL BE A SECONDARY SURGE OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE
NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ACCUMULATING
SNOW FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA HIGH COUNTRY AND MOUNT ROGERS IN
VIRGINIA. SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO COME INTO PLAY
LATE TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW 20 DEG F...YEILDING 2 TO 1.
AS SUCH...THINK IT IS FEASIBLE TO SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW OVER
THE NC HIGH COUNTRY...POSSIBLY MORE AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 4000 FT.

OVERALL THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A BIG SNOW PRODUCER FOR
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE MAIN MEDIA FOCUS WILL BE ON COASTAL
NEW ENGLAND WHERE THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL WRAP UP INTO A
MAJOR WINTER STORM. FOR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WE GET TO DEAL
WITH THE BACKLASH WINDS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. THEIR IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE COASTAL STORM TO
PENETRATE AS FAR SOUTH AS OUR NORTHEASTERN CWA LATE TONIGHT...SO
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AS THERE MAY BE A NEED FOR
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES FOR AREAS NORTHEAST OF LYNCHBURG...
SPECIFICALLY APPOMATTOX...BUCKINGHAM AND POINTS NORTH AND EAST.

EVEN THOUGH WE ARE NOT ADVERTISING MUCH PRECIP WITHIN OUR LOCAL
FORECAST AREA...THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS VERY DYNAMIC...LOTS OF
ENERGY ALOFT THAT WILL CAUSE THIS STORM TO DEEPEN QUICKLY AS IT
MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. HAVE EVEN SEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
WITHIN THE SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT TODAY WHICH IS
AN INDICATOR OF HOW UNSTABLE THIS ATMOSPHERE IS BECOMING AND THE
POTENTIAL ENERGY THAT IS BUILDING UP FOR THIS THING TO FEED OFF OF
ONCE IT GETS EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND CERTAINLY SETTING THE
STAGE FOR COASTAL BOMBOGENESIS TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLING WITH QPF...AND IT WAS A BIT INTERESTING TO SEE ALL THE
QPF THE GFS MODEL PAINTING OVER OUR CWA THIS MORNING...YET NOT
MUCH WAS OCCURRING...CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN THE MODEL. WHAT REALLY
MADE IT HUMOROUS WAS THE MODEL THEN TOOK THE 4-6 TENTHS OF AN INCH
OF QPF AND CONVERTED IT TO ALL SNOW. ANYONE ISSUING FORECASTS AND
BLINDLY FOLLOWING GUIDANCE THIS MORNING WOULD HAVE THEN
EXPERIENCED A GOOD TASTE OF METEOROLOGICAL/MODEL CANCER...A
GARBAGE IN...GARBAGE OUT SORT OF FORECAST.

QPF ISSUES ASIDE...THE IMPACT FROM THIS STORM FOR OUR LOCAL AREA
WILL BE MINOR COMPARED TO OUR NEIGHBORS TO THE NORTH. I.E. NOTHING
WE HAVN`T SEE BEFORE. IN SUMMARY...A PERIOD OF SNOW IS LIKELY FOR
OUR MOUNTAINS TONIGHT WITH FLURRIES AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
LINGERING INTO TUESDAY. IT WILL BECOME BLUSTERY WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 20MPH...AND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH. A 40 MPH GUST
OVER THE NC/VA/WV HIGHLANDS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. COLDER AIR
SPILLING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS...TO NEAR 30 IN THE PIEDMONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE ON TUESDAY...REMAINING IN THE
20S MOUNTAINS...AND 30S TO NO MORE THAN 40 EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EST MONDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT OUR REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE WITHIN A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST. NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH A ORIGIN ACROSS LAKE
ERIE...WILL BRING MOISTURE UPSLOPE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS...SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH
CAROLINA. ANTICIPATE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ALONG THE PREFERRED
WESTERN SLOPES. AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATEST IN WESTERN GREENBRIER
COUNTY WHERE LESS THAN INCH OF NEW MEASURABLE SNOW IS EXPECTED.
ELSEWHERE...THE SNOW WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF FLURRIES...OR
ACCUMULATING SNOW THAT PRODUCES A DUSTING ON SURFACES. WINDS WILL
GUST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH LESSER
MAGNITUDES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

BY WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE AREA AND LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND VEER MORE NORTHERLY...THUS TURNING OFF
THE UPSLOPE SNOW MACHINE. ANTICIPATE A TREND TOWARD LITTLE OR NO
CLOUD COVER AND WEAKENING WINDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION WHILE OUR NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM HEADS
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOOK FOR WINDS TO BACK
SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD...ALONG WITH AN
ONSET OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. CLOUD COVER WILL START TO INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO THAT BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
REGION. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE IN THE WEST BY
MIDDAY THURSDAY AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM HEADS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS AT THIS TIME TO BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX
IN THE WEST. AS PRECIPITATION SPREADS EAST DURING THE...MILDER AIR
WILL ALLOW FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION
TO PLAIN RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA ONCE WARM AIR ADVECTION STARTS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EST MONDAY...

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO MUCH BELOW THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...ALONG WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY.

UPPER LEVELS WILL BE EVOLVING TO MORE OF A DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM.
THE LATEST INDICATIONS POINT TO A COLDER MORE AMPLIFIED EASTERN TROF
DEVELOPING AS PER THE ECMWF...AND SPLIT FLOW OUT WEST WITH A RIDGE
FOR THE PACIFIC NW AND A CUTOFF LOW REGENERATING OVER THE BAJA
PENINSULA.

THURSDAY NIGHT STARTS OUT WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH FOLLOWED
BY UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS
WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE SNOW SHOWERS AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN
WITH FAIR WEATHER AND COLD TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF THE
WEEKEND.

IT NOW APPEARS THAT A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
ON SUNDAY...BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING VERY STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS TO USHER IN A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR AND COLD
TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH THIS MESSAGE AND NAEFS ANOMALIES NOW SUPPORT THE GFS
TREND TOWARD THIS SOLUTION SO CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN THIS COLD
OUTBREAK.


&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EST MONDAY...

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL MOVE NORTHEAST DEVELOPING
INTO A MAJOR COASTAL STORM FOR NEW ENGLAND. AS THE STORM
STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL
ADVECT INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUPPORTING SNOW SHOWERS AND
BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS.

FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS PER A SHALLOW MOIST NORTHEAST WIND. ONCE THE
NORTHWEST WIND DEVELOPS THIS EVENING...THIS CLOUD LAYER SHOULD
LIFT. HOWEVER...CLOUD BASES OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN LOW
WITH PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES.

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR AREAS OF MVFR AND OCNL IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS LINGERING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH TUESDAY.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ON TUESDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
ACROSS KBLF/KLWB AND PERHAPS EVEN KBCB DUE TO SCATTERED UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS. EASTERN TAF LOCATIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR ON TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE A QUIET DAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TAF LOCATIONS. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM
ARRIVES ON THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND
VSBYS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
HINTON ALL HAZARDS RADIO...162.425MHZ WAS OFF THE AIR THIS
MORNING. TECHNICIANS INDICATE THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF TREE DAMAGE
FROM ICE IN THE AREA AND THE RADIO WILL CONTINUE EXPERIENCE
INTERMITTENT OUTAGES DUE TO POWER INTERUPTIONS IN THE AREA.

THE ROANOKE TRANSMITTER...POOR MOUNTAIN 162.475 MHZ...IS ALSO
EXPERIENCING PROBLEMS WITH INTERMITTENT OUTAGES. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS EXIST ON POOR MOUNTAIN WITH THE POWER BEING INTERRUPTED
BY TREE DAMAGE FROM ICE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ019-020.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ015.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...PM
EQUIPMENT...PM



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 262049
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
349 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY TONIGHT AS
IT TRACKS NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND
COASTS. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON
WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN FORECAST CHANGE WAS TO START TRIMMING BACK ON INHERITED
WINTER WX ADVSRYS AS THE LIKELIHOOD FOR 1-3IN OF SNOW HAS DECREASED
OVER MANY AREAS. WPC AND MUCH OF 12Z GUIDANCE SUPPORT THIS
IDEA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADVSRY-LEVEL SNOWFALL STILL OVER
THE LWR MD ERN SHORE WHERE 2-4IN IS PSBL. DO NOT THINK NORFOLK AND
RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE AOA 2IN...BUT WITH THE HEADLINE
ALREADY OUT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO AN INCH TO PSBLY CAUSE
SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...WILL KEEP THOSE AREAS
(AND AREAS N AND E) IN THE ADVSRY FOR NOW. ANOTHER ISSUE IS
TEMPS...WITH PARTS OF THE AREA STAYING JUST A TAD ABOVE FREEZING.
WILL UPDATE AS NEEDED THIS EVENG AND TNGT.

AS FOR PCPN...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDS DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS
ASIDE FM WORCESTER CNTY WHERE AN AREA OF RA HAS BEEN PERSISTENT.
BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES THIS EVENG AS SFC LO PRES DEVELOPS
OFFSHORE. POPS RANGE FM 40-50% SW TO 70-80% NE. THE RA WILL
TRANSITION TO A RA/SN MIX THEN SN FM NW TO SE TNGT. TOTAL QPF WILL
BE UP TO A QUARTER INCH. LO TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 20S FAR
NW TO MID 30S SE. PCPN WILL END FM W TO E ON TUE AS THE SFC LO
ADVANCES TOWARDS THE GULF OF ME AND NW CAA FLOW LEADS TO GUSTS TO
25-30 MPH NR THE CST AND LWR ERN SHORE. HI TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID
30S TO LWR 40S UNDER A CLOUDY-MSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED CSTL LO PULLS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AS SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W. EXPECT
DECREASING CLOUDS TUE NIGHT WITH NW WINDS. LO TEMPS WILL RANGE
THRU THE 20S...WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.
COOL TEMPS INTO WED AS WELL...WITH HIGHS ONLY RANGING FM THE MID
30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR 30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE.
DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH SIMILAR TEMPS AS TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE
MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST STATES SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A CHC OF RAIN IS IN
THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW PSBL FAR NRN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW AND THEN
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK MOVING FRONTAL
WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT TO SEA MONDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE
FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 17Z...A LULL IN THE PCPN PATTERN AND LARGE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER ARE TEMPORARY. AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OFF THE NC/VA COAST
RAIN IS FORECAST TO REDEVELOP LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING AND THEN
CHANGE TO SNOW OVERNIGHT. SNOWFALL WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AT
THE TAF SITES EXCEPT AT SBY WHERE A 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY
TUESDAY MORNING.

IFR STRATUS MOVED INTO SBY FROM THE NORTH AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN.
IFR STRATUS JUST NW OF RIC SHOULD STAY TO THE WEST FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS ALTHOUGH INCLUDED TEMPO MVFR DUE TO A PERSISTENT SCT LAYER
THERE. ELSEWHERE...SOLID VFR CONDS SHOULD HANG ON MOST OF THE AFTN.
AS PCPN DEVELOPS TOWARD EVENING...CONDS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR THIS
EVENING...EXCEPT KEPT ECG NO LOWER THAN MVFR. PCPN WINDS DOWN AND
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. NORTH WINDS WILL
PREVAIL WHICH WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES TOWARD THE COAST. WINDS TREND
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK WITH ONLY
SMALL CHANCES FOR PCPN...MAINLY LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA HEADLINES FORECAST THRU WEDS.

LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED JUST OFF THE NC/VA COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THE LOW HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY...RESULTING IN AN UPTICK OF N-NE
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. BEGINNING TO SEE 20 KT GUSTS OVER THE
BAY/LOWER JAMES WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KT OVER THE NRN COASTAL
WATERS. SEAS HAVE RESPONDED...BUILDING TO 7 FT AT BUOY 44009. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP THRU LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS (GUSTS TO 30 KT) EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WATERS TONIGHT AS
THE LOW INTENSIFYS RAPIDLY AND LIFTS AWAY FROM THE COAST. LOW LEVEL
CAA ALSO INTENSIFIES. GALE CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN COASTAL WATERS...CLOSEST TO THE STRONGEST
GRADIENT WINDS AND CAA. SEAS BUILD TO 7 TO 12 FT IN THE NRN WATERS
AND 5 TO 8 FT IN THE SRN WATERS TONIGHT. AS THE LOW LIFTS
AWAY...FLOW BACKS TO THE NW...KEEPING HIGH SEAS FROM REACHING THE
BEACHES. NO HIGH SURF PLANNED ATTM. LITTLE CHANGE TUES AS STRONG NW
FLOW PERSISTS BTWN LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OH VALLEY. GALE CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE NRN COASTAL
WATERS THRU EARLY TUES EVENING...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 5-8 FT TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
FINALLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATE WEDS...ALLOWING WINDS TO
DIMINISH AOB 15 KT. SEAS SUBSIDE THRU WEDS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE WATERS THURS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT CLIPPER FRONT
SET TO CROSS THE WATERS THURS NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT NIGHT/TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF STRONG NLY
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 1 TO
1.5 FT...POSSIBLY HIGHER...DURING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLES. SITES IN THE LOWER BAY WILL REACH
HIGHEST ASTRO TIDE WITH WATER LEVELS APPROACHING MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS AT SEWELLS POINT TONIGHT. FOR OCEAN CITY...MINOR
FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH NEW GUIDANCE INDICATING AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR MODERATE. HV GONE AHEAD WITH COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR
WORCESTER COUNTY INVOF OCEAN CITY FOR TNGT. THIS WILL GIVE THE DAY
CREW ONE MORE OPPORTUNITY TO PERUSE LATEST GUIDANCE AND EITHER GO
WITH ADVY OR UPGRADE TO WARNING LATER TODAY. ANOTHER PERIOD OF
HIGH ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOMALIES DROP
OFF TUE NGT/WED AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     TUESDAY FOR MDZ021>025.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR MDZ024-025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ081-089-090-093.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ091-094>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>634-
     654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 262049
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
349 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY TONIGHT AS
IT TRACKS NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND
COASTS. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON
WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN FORECAST CHANGE WAS TO START TRIMMING BACK ON INHERITED
WINTER WX ADVSRYS AS THE LIKELIHOOD FOR 1-3IN OF SNOW HAS DECREASED
OVER MANY AREAS. WPC AND MUCH OF 12Z GUIDANCE SUPPORT THIS
IDEA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADVSRY-LEVEL SNOWFALL STILL OVER
THE LWR MD ERN SHORE WHERE 2-4IN IS PSBL. DO NOT THINK NORFOLK AND
RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE AOA 2IN...BUT WITH THE HEADLINE
ALREADY OUT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO AN INCH TO PSBLY CAUSE
SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...WILL KEEP THOSE AREAS
(AND AREAS N AND E) IN THE ADVSRY FOR NOW. ANOTHER ISSUE IS
TEMPS...WITH PARTS OF THE AREA STAYING JUST A TAD ABOVE FREEZING.
WILL UPDATE AS NEEDED THIS EVENG AND TNGT.

AS FOR PCPN...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDS DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS
ASIDE FM WORCESTER CNTY WHERE AN AREA OF RA HAS BEEN PERSISTENT.
BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES THIS EVENG AS SFC LO PRES DEVELOPS
OFFSHORE. POPS RANGE FM 40-50% SW TO 70-80% NE. THE RA WILL
TRANSITION TO A RA/SN MIX THEN SN FM NW TO SE TNGT. TOTAL QPF WILL
BE UP TO A QUARTER INCH. LO TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 20S FAR
NW TO MID 30S SE. PCPN WILL END FM W TO E ON TUE AS THE SFC LO
ADVANCES TOWARDS THE GULF OF ME AND NW CAA FLOW LEADS TO GUSTS TO
25-30 MPH NR THE CST AND LWR ERN SHORE. HI TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID
30S TO LWR 40S UNDER A CLOUDY-MSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED CSTL LO PULLS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AS SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W. EXPECT
DECREASING CLOUDS TUE NIGHT WITH NW WINDS. LO TEMPS WILL RANGE
THRU THE 20S...WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.
COOL TEMPS INTO WED AS WELL...WITH HIGHS ONLY RANGING FM THE MID
30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR 30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE.
DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH SIMILAR TEMPS AS TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE
MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST STATES SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A CHC OF RAIN IS IN
THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW PSBL FAR NRN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW AND THEN
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK MOVING FRONTAL
WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT TO SEA MONDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE
FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 17Z...A LULL IN THE PCPN PATTERN AND LARGE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER ARE TEMPORARY. AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OFF THE NC/VA COAST
RAIN IS FORECAST TO REDEVELOP LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING AND THEN
CHANGE TO SNOW OVERNIGHT. SNOWFALL WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AT
THE TAF SITES EXCEPT AT SBY WHERE A 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY
TUESDAY MORNING.

IFR STRATUS MOVED INTO SBY FROM THE NORTH AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN.
IFR STRATUS JUST NW OF RIC SHOULD STAY TO THE WEST FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS ALTHOUGH INCLUDED TEMPO MVFR DUE TO A PERSISTENT SCT LAYER
THERE. ELSEWHERE...SOLID VFR CONDS SHOULD HANG ON MOST OF THE AFTN.
AS PCPN DEVELOPS TOWARD EVENING...CONDS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR THIS
EVENING...EXCEPT KEPT ECG NO LOWER THAN MVFR. PCPN WINDS DOWN AND
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. NORTH WINDS WILL
PREVAIL WHICH WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES TOWARD THE COAST. WINDS TREND
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK WITH ONLY
SMALL CHANCES FOR PCPN...MAINLY LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA HEADLINES FORECAST THRU WEDS.

LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED JUST OFF THE NC/VA COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THE LOW HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY...RESULTING IN AN UPTICK OF N-NE
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. BEGINNING TO SEE 20 KT GUSTS OVER THE
BAY/LOWER JAMES WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KT OVER THE NRN COASTAL
WATERS. SEAS HAVE RESPONDED...BUILDING TO 7 FT AT BUOY 44009. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP THRU LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS (GUSTS TO 30 KT) EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WATERS TONIGHT AS
THE LOW INTENSIFYS RAPIDLY AND LIFTS AWAY FROM THE COAST. LOW LEVEL
CAA ALSO INTENSIFIES. GALE CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN COASTAL WATERS...CLOSEST TO THE STRONGEST
GRADIENT WINDS AND CAA. SEAS BUILD TO 7 TO 12 FT IN THE NRN WATERS
AND 5 TO 8 FT IN THE SRN WATERS TONIGHT. AS THE LOW LIFTS
AWAY...FLOW BACKS TO THE NW...KEEPING HIGH SEAS FROM REACHING THE
BEACHES. NO HIGH SURF PLANNED ATTM. LITTLE CHANGE TUES AS STRONG NW
FLOW PERSISTS BTWN LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OH VALLEY. GALE CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE NRN COASTAL
WATERS THRU EARLY TUES EVENING...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 5-8 FT TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
FINALLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATE WEDS...ALLOWING WINDS TO
DIMINISH AOB 15 KT. SEAS SUBSIDE THRU WEDS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE WATERS THURS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT CLIPPER FRONT
SET TO CROSS THE WATERS THURS NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT NIGHT/TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF STRONG NLY
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 1 TO
1.5 FT...POSSIBLY HIGHER...DURING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLES. SITES IN THE LOWER BAY WILL REACH
HIGHEST ASTRO TIDE WITH WATER LEVELS APPROACHING MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS AT SEWELLS POINT TONIGHT. FOR OCEAN CITY...MINOR
FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH NEW GUIDANCE INDICATING AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR MODERATE. HV GONE AHEAD WITH COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR
WORCESTER COUNTY INVOF OCEAN CITY FOR TNGT. THIS WILL GIVE THE DAY
CREW ONE MORE OPPORTUNITY TO PERUSE LATEST GUIDANCE AND EITHER GO
WITH ADVY OR UPGRADE TO WARNING LATER TODAY. ANOTHER PERIOD OF
HIGH ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOMALIES DROP
OFF TUE NGT/WED AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     TUESDAY FOR MDZ021>025.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR MDZ024-025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ081-089-090-093.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ091-094>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>634-
     654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KLWX 262013
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
313 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFFSHORE
AND TRACK NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM SWINGS THROUGH THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

UPDATE...CANCELLED A LARGE SECTION OF THE WINTER WX ADVISORY
SURROUNDING THE NRN VA BLUE RIDGE ON EITHER SIDE. CONTINUED TO THE
ADVISORY ELSEWHERE AND THE WARNING FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
ALLEGANY FRONT.

THE MID-ATLC IS CURRENTLY IN THE RELATIVE IN-BETWEEN LULL ZONE W/
ONE SIDE OF THE STORM SYSTEM WEAKENING AND THE OTHER SIDE
INTENSIFYING. STILL WATCHING FOR THE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE
APLCNS TO SWING AROUND AND PROMOTE MORE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE ERN HALF
OF THE CWA LATER THIS EVE/TONIGHT. GUIDANCE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON A GENERALIZED ZONE OF BANDING FROM ROUGHLY KHGR TO KNHK...THAT
DISPLACES AND SHIFTS FURTHER EAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS. REGARDLESS
OF EXACT TIMING/AMOUNTS...NOT ANTICIPATING MORE THAN AN ADDITIONAL
1-2" W/ ANY DISTINCT BAND THAT SETS-UP. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY HIGHER
POTENTIAL IN NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE MEMBERS...LOCALIZED WRF DERIVATIVES
AND THE LIKE.

TEMPS HAVE BEEN ON A WAVY PATTERN WITHIN A COUPLE DEG OF FREEZING
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...ESPEC SOUTH AND EAST OF DC BUT ALSO INCLUDING
MUCH OF THE METRO AREAS. MODIFIED TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...
DROPPING MOST AREAS DOWN AT LEAST AN INCH WHICH ACCOUNTS FOR THE
LOWER AMOUNTS FROM EARLIER TODAY. MANY LOCATIONS THAT HAVE SEEN SNOW
SINCE EARLIER THIS MRNG HAVE NOT BEEN ACCUMULATING EFFICIENTLY W/
TEMPS IN THE MID-U30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...

AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE APLCNS WEAKENS AND GETS COMPLETELY
ABSORBED INTO THE DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE ATLC COAST....THE
SNOW POTENTIAL WILL SHUT DOWN QUICKLY HEADING INTO THE MID MRNG HRS
TUE. A LINGERING BAND MAY SET UP OVER THE CHES BAY/DELMARVA THAT
COULD INCH OVER INTO THE WRN SHORE MD COUNTIES BUT NOT LIKELY MUCH
FURTHER WEST OF THERE. CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO MIDDAY BUT THEY WILL
BE QUICKLY PUSHED TOWARD THE EAST BY A STRENGTHENING NW WINDS...
COURTESY OF THE INTENSE LOW WELL OFF TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. TEMPS
WILL ONLY BRIEFLY CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING TUE AFTN...BUT WIND CHILLS
WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE 20S/L30S FROM THE GUSTY AND DRIER NW FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

TIME FLIES - 4 YRS AGO TDA WAS ONE OF THE MOST INTENSE AFTN/EVE`S
OF WINTER WX XPRNCD HERE AS HVY SN/IP AT RUSH HR CAUSED THOUSANDS
OF CARS TO BE STRANDED ON AREA ROADS.

TUE NGT THRU WED NGT LOOKING LK A FAIRLY QUIET PD WXWISE. COLD
TEMPS WL BE THE KEY CONCERN - COLD AIR WL BE PUSHED INTO THE MID
ATLC AS INTENSE LOW PRES CAUSES BLZRD CONDS IN SRN NEW ENGLAND.
HIGH PRES WL BE BLDG INTO THE CWA.

LOWS TUE NGT PRIMARILY IN THE MU TEENS...L20S IN THE CITIES...
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE MTNS. HIGHS WED IN THE 30S...20S IN THE
HIGHLANDS. LOWS WED NGT FAIRLY SIMILAR TO TUE NGT.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
THURSDAY WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW
PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BRING TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE OUTLOOK AREA. SNOW WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE HIGHLANDS
THURSDAY MORNING AND AS PRECIPITATION MOVES EASTWARD AND TEMPS
RISE SNOW MAY TRANSITION TO RAIN. AT THIS TIME ACCUMULATIONS OF
LESS THAN AN INCH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA THURSDAY.
THE SFC LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES INTO FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HUDSON BAY THIS WEEKEND AND A COLD
FRONT MAY CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

A RELATIVE LULL IN THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM`S PASSAGE ACROSS THE
MID-ATLC. EARLIER HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED TO LIGHT SNOW
OR JUST LOW CIGS THIS AFTN. INTO THE LATE EVE HRS...ANOTHER WAVE OF
SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN SHEN VLY TO
THE SRN MD SHORES...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE DC/BALT AREA. CIGS
WILL REMAIN MVFR OR LOWER INTO EARLY TUE...W/ VSBYS ONLY DROPPING W/
HEAVIER SNOW ACTIVITY. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY DROP BELOW FREEZING ACROSS
THE REGION LATE TONIGHT - FOR THOSE WHO HAVEN`T ALREADY. TUE MRNG
WILL HAVE ONLY A BRIEF BOUT W/ SOME LIGHT SNOW EARLY...NEAR DAWN
CLOSER TO THE CHES BAY THEN LOW CIGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE INTO THE
AFTN HRS.


VFR CONDS TUE NGT THRU WED NGT.

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION. SN OR RA WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...

WIDESPREAD SCA CONDS STILL OCCURRING OVER THE WATERS...STAYING THE
COURSE INTO LATER THIS EVE. GALE GUSTS WILL BEGIN TO APPEAR OVER THE
MAIN CHANNEL AND LOWER BAY LATER TONIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS AS
THE COASTAL LOW STRENGTHENS. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY INTO TUE AFTN
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO AFFECT AREAS TO OUR NE...GRADUALLY MOVING
AWAY FROM THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY.

SCA CONDS WL STILL BE XPRNCD TUE NGT AND WED...FINALLY DIMINISHING
WED NGT AS HIGH PRES MOVES OVR THE WATERS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY AND SCA WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ003-502.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ004>006-
     011-013-014-503>508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ016>018.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ501.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ028-031-
     503-504.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ052>054-
     505-506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ055>057.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ050>053-
     055-502-504>506.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ501-503.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ530>534-537>543.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...GMS/WOODY!/HAS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 262013
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
313 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFFSHORE
AND TRACK NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM SWINGS THROUGH THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

UPDATE...CANCELLED A LARGE SECTION OF THE WINTER WX ADVISORY
SURROUNDING THE NRN VA BLUE RIDGE ON EITHER SIDE. CONTINUED TO THE
ADVISORY ELSEWHERE AND THE WARNING FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
ALLEGANY FRONT.

THE MID-ATLC IS CURRENTLY IN THE RELATIVE IN-BETWEEN LULL ZONE W/
ONE SIDE OF THE STORM SYSTEM WEAKENING AND THE OTHER SIDE
INTENSIFYING. STILL WATCHING FOR THE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE
APLCNS TO SWING AROUND AND PROMOTE MORE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE ERN HALF
OF THE CWA LATER THIS EVE/TONIGHT. GUIDANCE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON A GENERALIZED ZONE OF BANDING FROM ROUGHLY KHGR TO KNHK...THAT
DISPLACES AND SHIFTS FURTHER EAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS. REGARDLESS
OF EXACT TIMING/AMOUNTS...NOT ANTICIPATING MORE THAN AN ADDITIONAL
1-2" W/ ANY DISTINCT BAND THAT SETS-UP. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY HIGHER
POTENTIAL IN NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE MEMBERS...LOCALIZED WRF DERIVATIVES
AND THE LIKE.

TEMPS HAVE BEEN ON A WAVY PATTERN WITHIN A COUPLE DEG OF FREEZING
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...ESPEC SOUTH AND EAST OF DC BUT ALSO INCLUDING
MUCH OF THE METRO AREAS. MODIFIED TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...
DROPPING MOST AREAS DOWN AT LEAST AN INCH WHICH ACCOUNTS FOR THE
LOWER AMOUNTS FROM EARLIER TODAY. MANY LOCATIONS THAT HAVE SEEN SNOW
SINCE EARLIER THIS MRNG HAVE NOT BEEN ACCUMULATING EFFICIENTLY W/
TEMPS IN THE MID-U30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...

AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE APLCNS WEAKENS AND GETS COMPLETELY
ABSORBED INTO THE DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE ATLC COAST....THE
SNOW POTENTIAL WILL SHUT DOWN QUICKLY HEADING INTO THE MID MRNG HRS
TUE. A LINGERING BAND MAY SET UP OVER THE CHES BAY/DELMARVA THAT
COULD INCH OVER INTO THE WRN SHORE MD COUNTIES BUT NOT LIKELY MUCH
FURTHER WEST OF THERE. CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO MIDDAY BUT THEY WILL
BE QUICKLY PUSHED TOWARD THE EAST BY A STRENGTHENING NW WINDS...
COURTESY OF THE INTENSE LOW WELL OFF TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. TEMPS
WILL ONLY BRIEFLY CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING TUE AFTN...BUT WIND CHILLS
WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE 20S/L30S FROM THE GUSTY AND DRIER NW FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

TIME FLIES - 4 YRS AGO TDA WAS ONE OF THE MOST INTENSE AFTN/EVE`S
OF WINTER WX XPRNCD HERE AS HVY SN/IP AT RUSH HR CAUSED THOUSANDS
OF CARS TO BE STRANDED ON AREA ROADS.

TUE NGT THRU WED NGT LOOKING LK A FAIRLY QUIET PD WXWISE. COLD
TEMPS WL BE THE KEY CONCERN - COLD AIR WL BE PUSHED INTO THE MID
ATLC AS INTENSE LOW PRES CAUSES BLZRD CONDS IN SRN NEW ENGLAND.
HIGH PRES WL BE BLDG INTO THE CWA.

LOWS TUE NGT PRIMARILY IN THE MU TEENS...L20S IN THE CITIES...
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE MTNS. HIGHS WED IN THE 30S...20S IN THE
HIGHLANDS. LOWS WED NGT FAIRLY SIMILAR TO TUE NGT.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
THURSDAY WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW
PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BRING TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE OUTLOOK AREA. SNOW WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE HIGHLANDS
THURSDAY MORNING AND AS PRECIPITATION MOVES EASTWARD AND TEMPS
RISE SNOW MAY TRANSITION TO RAIN. AT THIS TIME ACCUMULATIONS OF
LESS THAN AN INCH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA THURSDAY.
THE SFC LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES INTO FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HUDSON BAY THIS WEEKEND AND A COLD
FRONT MAY CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

A RELATIVE LULL IN THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM`S PASSAGE ACROSS THE
MID-ATLC. EARLIER HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED TO LIGHT SNOW
OR JUST LOW CIGS THIS AFTN. INTO THE LATE EVE HRS...ANOTHER WAVE OF
SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN SHEN VLY TO
THE SRN MD SHORES...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE DC/BALT AREA. CIGS
WILL REMAIN MVFR OR LOWER INTO EARLY TUE...W/ VSBYS ONLY DROPPING W/
HEAVIER SNOW ACTIVITY. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY DROP BELOW FREEZING ACROSS
THE REGION LATE TONIGHT - FOR THOSE WHO HAVEN`T ALREADY. TUE MRNG
WILL HAVE ONLY A BRIEF BOUT W/ SOME LIGHT SNOW EARLY...NEAR DAWN
CLOSER TO THE CHES BAY THEN LOW CIGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE INTO THE
AFTN HRS.


VFR CONDS TUE NGT THRU WED NGT.

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION. SN OR RA WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...

WIDESPREAD SCA CONDS STILL OCCURRING OVER THE WATERS...STAYING THE
COURSE INTO LATER THIS EVE. GALE GUSTS WILL BEGIN TO APPEAR OVER THE
MAIN CHANNEL AND LOWER BAY LATER TONIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS AS
THE COASTAL LOW STRENGTHENS. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY INTO TUE AFTN
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO AFFECT AREAS TO OUR NE...GRADUALLY MOVING
AWAY FROM THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY.

SCA CONDS WL STILL BE XPRNCD TUE NGT AND WED...FINALLY DIMINISHING
WED NGT AS HIGH PRES MOVES OVR THE WATERS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY AND SCA WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ003-502.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ004>006-
     011-013-014-503>508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ016>018.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ501.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ028-031-
     503-504.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ052>054-
     505-506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ055>057.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ050>053-
     055-502-504>506.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ501-503.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ530>534-537>543.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...GMS/WOODY!/HAS








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 261814
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
114 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
WEAKEN THIS MORNING...WHILE A NEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW WILL THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NORTH NORTHEAST
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAIN CHANGE TO TODAYS FORECAST WAS TO RAISE MAX TEMPS
EVERYWHERE...AND POPS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING AREA OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL VORT MAX OVER NORTH-CENTRAL NC. THIS
WILL MAINLY AFFECT PORTIONS OF NE NC. OTWS...NO CHANGES TO WINTER
HEADLINES ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS MORNG...AREA OF RAIN WAS MOVNG INTO WRN AND NRN
COUNTIES IN ADVANCE OF SFC LO OVR SW VA AND UPR TROF PUSHING ACRS
THE MTNS. THE LO WILL WEAKEN THIS MORNG...WHILE A NEW LO PRES
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NC CST BY EARLY THIS AFTN. THAT LO
WILL THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLC CST INTO THIS EVENG.
COMBINATION OF THE SFC LO RE-DEVELOPMENT AND UPR TROF SWINGING
ACRS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN CHCS FOR RAIN TODAY INTO THIS
EVENG. HIGHEST POPS (60-80%) WILL BE OVR THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA
WHERE BEST LIFT WILL BE...WITH 30-40% POPS OVR THE SRN HALF. TEMPS
WILL WARM A BIT INTO EARLY AFTN DESPITE CLOUD COVER...POSSIBLE
PCPN AS WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FM THE E. HI TEMPS WILL RANGE FM
THE LWR 40S NW TO THE MID 50S OVR NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WILL FAVOR A BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM/ECMWF FOR THIS PERIOD. THE MAIN
EVENT FOR OUR AREA BEGINS TNGT INTO TUE MORNG...AS COLDER AIR
PLUNGES S IN RESPONSE TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SFC LO OFF
THE MID ATLC AND SRN NEW ENGLAND CST. STILL MAINLY RAIN ACRS THE
SRN 2/3 OF THE CWA IN THE EVENING...THEN TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW
BETWEEN 00Z-09Z FM NW TO SE. DURING THIS TIME...BEST LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS
WILL RESIDE OFF THE CST OR NE OF OUR CWA. HOWEVER...WILL BE
RELYING ON DEFORMATION ZONE AND POSSIBLE BANDING DEVELOPMENT FM
THE DELMARVA TO LONG ISLAND TO "WRAP AROUND" AND DROP S OVR THE
LWR MD ERN SHR...AND PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND ERN VA FM THIS EVENG
THRU TUE MORNG. THUS...BASED ON THE ABOVE REASONING AND WPC
FCSTS...HAVE ISSUED WINTER WX ADVISORIES FOR MOST OF THE CWA WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SW COUNTIES OF SCNTRL VA AND ALL OF NE NC
COUNTIES. GENERALLY...ADVSYS WILL RUN FM 8PM-1AM THIS EVENG/TNGT
TO 8AM-NOON TUE. ANY CHANGE IN THE POSITION OF THE BANDING CAN HAVE
DRASTIC EFFECTS ON SNOW AMOUNTS...SO UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS
RATHER HIGH. FOR NOW...HAVE FORECAST 2-4" OF SNOW ON THE LWR MD
ERN SHR...WITH 1-3" ACRS NRN NECK/VA ERN SHR...1-2" ACRS THE ERN
VA PIEDMONT/CNTRL VA INCLUDING RIC METRO AND TRI-CITIES...THEN
TAPERED TO 1" OR LESS OVR SCNTRL VA AND SE VA INCLUDING HAMPTON
RDS AND THE TIDEWATER AREA.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF AND END LATE TUE MORNG/AFTN...BUT
IF 00Z ECMWF IS CORRECT...THIS WOULD BE SLOWER AND ADDITIONAL
SNOW AMOUNTS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED...ESPLY OVR THE LWR MD ERN SHR.
LOWS TNGT IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S...HIGHS ON TUE RANGING FM THE
MID 30S TO LWR 40S. CLEARING/COLD TUE NGT/WED WITH LOWS IN THE
20S AND HIGHS ON WED RANGING FM THE LWR/MID 40S SW TO THE LWR/MID
30S NE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH DRY WX MOST
DAYS. FOR WED NIGHT...SFC HI PRES BLDS OVR THE MID ATLANTIC AND SE
STATES AS THE NEXT LO PRES SYSTM APPROACHES FM THE W. WITH A MSTLY
CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S IN MOST
SPOTS. LO PRES AND AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL VORT MAX WILL BRING
PRECIP (PLAIN RAIN) INTO THE AREA STARTING LATE THU. FAVORED THE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION...WITH A 30% CHANCE OF PRECIP (RA/SN
NORTH AND RA SOUTH) THU NIGHT...WITH LO TEMPS IN THE LO TO MID 30S.
CONDS THEN DRY OUT INTO FRI AND SAT AS SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W.
EXPECT A PRTLY CLOUDY SKY BOTH DAYS WITH NW WINDS AND HI TEMPS
FALLING FM THE 40S ON FRI TO THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 17Z...A LULL IN THE PCPN PATTERN AND LARGE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER ARE TEMPORARY. AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OFF THE NC/VA COAST
...RAIN IS FORECAST TO REDEVELOP LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING AND THEN
CHANGE TO SNOW OVERNIGHT. SNOWFALL WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AT THE
TAF SITES EXCEPT AT SBY WHERE A 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY
MORNING.

IFR STRATUS MOVED INTO SBY FROM THE NORTH AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN.
IFR STRATUS JUST NW OF RIC SHOULD STAY TO THE WEST FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS ALTHOUGH INCLUDED TEMPO MVFR DUE TO A PERSISTENT SCT LAYER
THERE. ELSEWHERE...SOLID VFR CONDS SHOULD HANG ON MOST OF THE AFTN.
AS PCPN DEVELOPS TOWARD EVENING...CONDS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR THIS
EVENING...EXCEPT KEPT ECG NO LOWER THAN MVFR. PCPN WINDS DOWN AND
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. NORTH WINDS WILL
PREVAIL WHICH WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES TOWARD THE COAST. WINDS TREND
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK WITH ONLY
SMALL CHANCES FOR PCPN...MAINLY LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 11AM...HEADLINES NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THIS MORNING.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING THIS MORNING
OFF THE ERN NC COAST. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS RAMP UP THRU THE
AFTERNOON...FIRST ACROSS THE NRN BAY AND COASTAL ZONES...THEN SWD TO
ALL WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS IN THE NRN COASTAL ZONES
ALREADY UP TO 6 FT THANKS TO NE WINDS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
THRU THE DAY. PLEASE REFER TO PREV DISCUSSION FOR MORE INFO.

PREV DISCUSSION...
GALE WATCH HEADLINE HAS BEEN CONVERTED TO SMALL CRAFT ADVY THROUGH
WED, WITH GALE WARNING REMAINING IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. E-SE FLOW OVER THE WATERS WILL BACK TO THE E-NE EARLY THIS
MORNING AND EVENTUALITY TO THE NW LATER TODAY. SFC LOW WILL
REDEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA CST LATE TODAY, AND WILL INTENSIFY AS
IT SLOWLY LIFTS NE INTO TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR GALES
CONTINUES OVER NORTHERN ZONES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RAPIDLY
DEEPENING SFC LOW. SCA`S OVER REMAINDER OF THE WATERS AS FLOW
BECOMES NW AND INCREASES TO 20-25KT. RAPID RAMP UP OF WINDS WILL
QUICKLY BUILD SEAS TO 6-9 FT SOUTH AND 8-10 FT NORTH, W/ AT LEAST
12 FT OUT 20NM OVR NRN CSTL WATERS. WAVES IN THE CHES BAY UP TO
5-6 FT LATE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING. NW FLOW AND LOW END SCA CONDS
LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO WED MORNING AS SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN
FM THE W. SUB-SCA CONDS THEN FOR WED NIGHT/THU.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT NIGHT/TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF STRONG NLY
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 1 TO
1.5 FT...POSSIBLY HIGHER...DURING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLES. SITES IN THE LOWER BAY WILL REACH
HIGHEST ASTRO TIDE WITH WATER LEVELS APPROACHING MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS AT SEWELLS POINT TONIGHT. FOR OCEAN CITY...MINOR
FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH NEW GUIDANCE INDICATING AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR MODERATE. HV GONE AHEAD WITH COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR
WORCESTER COUNTY INVOF OCEAN CITY FOR TNGT. THIS WILL GIVE THE DAY
CREW ONE MORE OPPORTUNITY TO PERUSE LATEST GUIDANCE AND EITHER GO
WITH ADVY OR UPGRADE TO WARNING LATER TODAY. ANOTHER PERIOD OF
HIGH ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOMALIES DROP
OFF TUE NGT/WED AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR MDZ021>025.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR MDZ024-025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ080-081-087>090-092-093.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ048-049-061-062-068-069.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     VAZ091-094>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>634-
     654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...MAS/TMG
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 261814
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
114 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
WEAKEN THIS MORNING...WHILE A NEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW WILL THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NORTH NORTHEAST
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAIN CHANGE TO TODAYS FORECAST WAS TO RAISE MAX TEMPS
EVERYWHERE...AND POPS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING AREA OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL VORT MAX OVER NORTH-CENTRAL NC. THIS
WILL MAINLY AFFECT PORTIONS OF NE NC. OTWS...NO CHANGES TO WINTER
HEADLINES ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS MORNG...AREA OF RAIN WAS MOVNG INTO WRN AND NRN
COUNTIES IN ADVANCE OF SFC LO OVR SW VA AND UPR TROF PUSHING ACRS
THE MTNS. THE LO WILL WEAKEN THIS MORNG...WHILE A NEW LO PRES
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NC CST BY EARLY THIS AFTN. THAT LO
WILL THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLC CST INTO THIS EVENG.
COMBINATION OF THE SFC LO RE-DEVELOPMENT AND UPR TROF SWINGING
ACRS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN CHCS FOR RAIN TODAY INTO THIS
EVENG. HIGHEST POPS (60-80%) WILL BE OVR THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA
WHERE BEST LIFT WILL BE...WITH 30-40% POPS OVR THE SRN HALF. TEMPS
WILL WARM A BIT INTO EARLY AFTN DESPITE CLOUD COVER...POSSIBLE
PCPN AS WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FM THE E. HI TEMPS WILL RANGE FM
THE LWR 40S NW TO THE MID 50S OVR NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WILL FAVOR A BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM/ECMWF FOR THIS PERIOD. THE MAIN
EVENT FOR OUR AREA BEGINS TNGT INTO TUE MORNG...AS COLDER AIR
PLUNGES S IN RESPONSE TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SFC LO OFF
THE MID ATLC AND SRN NEW ENGLAND CST. STILL MAINLY RAIN ACRS THE
SRN 2/3 OF THE CWA IN THE EVENING...THEN TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW
BETWEEN 00Z-09Z FM NW TO SE. DURING THIS TIME...BEST LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS
WILL RESIDE OFF THE CST OR NE OF OUR CWA. HOWEVER...WILL BE
RELYING ON DEFORMATION ZONE AND POSSIBLE BANDING DEVELOPMENT FM
THE DELMARVA TO LONG ISLAND TO "WRAP AROUND" AND DROP S OVR THE
LWR MD ERN SHR...AND PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND ERN VA FM THIS EVENG
THRU TUE MORNG. THUS...BASED ON THE ABOVE REASONING AND WPC
FCSTS...HAVE ISSUED WINTER WX ADVISORIES FOR MOST OF THE CWA WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SW COUNTIES OF SCNTRL VA AND ALL OF NE NC
COUNTIES. GENERALLY...ADVSYS WILL RUN FM 8PM-1AM THIS EVENG/TNGT
TO 8AM-NOON TUE. ANY CHANGE IN THE POSITION OF THE BANDING CAN HAVE
DRASTIC EFFECTS ON SNOW AMOUNTS...SO UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS
RATHER HIGH. FOR NOW...HAVE FORECAST 2-4" OF SNOW ON THE LWR MD
ERN SHR...WITH 1-3" ACRS NRN NECK/VA ERN SHR...1-2" ACRS THE ERN
VA PIEDMONT/CNTRL VA INCLUDING RIC METRO AND TRI-CITIES...THEN
TAPERED TO 1" OR LESS OVR SCNTRL VA AND SE VA INCLUDING HAMPTON
RDS AND THE TIDEWATER AREA.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF AND END LATE TUE MORNG/AFTN...BUT
IF 00Z ECMWF IS CORRECT...THIS WOULD BE SLOWER AND ADDITIONAL
SNOW AMOUNTS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED...ESPLY OVR THE LWR MD ERN SHR.
LOWS TNGT IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S...HIGHS ON TUE RANGING FM THE
MID 30S TO LWR 40S. CLEARING/COLD TUE NGT/WED WITH LOWS IN THE
20S AND HIGHS ON WED RANGING FM THE LWR/MID 40S SW TO THE LWR/MID
30S NE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH DRY WX MOST
DAYS. FOR WED NIGHT...SFC HI PRES BLDS OVR THE MID ATLANTIC AND SE
STATES AS THE NEXT LO PRES SYSTM APPROACHES FM THE W. WITH A MSTLY
CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S IN MOST
SPOTS. LO PRES AND AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL VORT MAX WILL BRING
PRECIP (PLAIN RAIN) INTO THE AREA STARTING LATE THU. FAVORED THE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION...WITH A 30% CHANCE OF PRECIP (RA/SN
NORTH AND RA SOUTH) THU NIGHT...WITH LO TEMPS IN THE LO TO MID 30S.
CONDS THEN DRY OUT INTO FRI AND SAT AS SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W.
EXPECT A PRTLY CLOUDY SKY BOTH DAYS WITH NW WINDS AND HI TEMPS
FALLING FM THE 40S ON FRI TO THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 17Z...A LULL IN THE PCPN PATTERN AND LARGE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER ARE TEMPORARY. AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OFF THE NC/VA COAST
...RAIN IS FORECAST TO REDEVELOP LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING AND THEN
CHANGE TO SNOW OVERNIGHT. SNOWFALL WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AT THE
TAF SITES EXCEPT AT SBY WHERE A 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY
MORNING.

IFR STRATUS MOVED INTO SBY FROM THE NORTH AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN.
IFR STRATUS JUST NW OF RIC SHOULD STAY TO THE WEST FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS ALTHOUGH INCLUDED TEMPO MVFR DUE TO A PERSISTENT SCT LAYER
THERE. ELSEWHERE...SOLID VFR CONDS SHOULD HANG ON MOST OF THE AFTN.
AS PCPN DEVELOPS TOWARD EVENING...CONDS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR THIS
EVENING...EXCEPT KEPT ECG NO LOWER THAN MVFR. PCPN WINDS DOWN AND
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. NORTH WINDS WILL
PREVAIL WHICH WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES TOWARD THE COAST. WINDS TREND
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK WITH ONLY
SMALL CHANCES FOR PCPN...MAINLY LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 11AM...HEADLINES NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THIS MORNING.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING THIS MORNING
OFF THE ERN NC COAST. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS RAMP UP THRU THE
AFTERNOON...FIRST ACROSS THE NRN BAY AND COASTAL ZONES...THEN SWD TO
ALL WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS IN THE NRN COASTAL ZONES
ALREADY UP TO 6 FT THANKS TO NE WINDS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
THRU THE DAY. PLEASE REFER TO PREV DISCUSSION FOR MORE INFO.

PREV DISCUSSION...
GALE WATCH HEADLINE HAS BEEN CONVERTED TO SMALL CRAFT ADVY THROUGH
WED, WITH GALE WARNING REMAINING IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. E-SE FLOW OVER THE WATERS WILL BACK TO THE E-NE EARLY THIS
MORNING AND EVENTUALITY TO THE NW LATER TODAY. SFC LOW WILL
REDEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA CST LATE TODAY, AND WILL INTENSIFY AS
IT SLOWLY LIFTS NE INTO TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR GALES
CONTINUES OVER NORTHERN ZONES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RAPIDLY
DEEPENING SFC LOW. SCA`S OVER REMAINDER OF THE WATERS AS FLOW
BECOMES NW AND INCREASES TO 20-25KT. RAPID RAMP UP OF WINDS WILL
QUICKLY BUILD SEAS TO 6-9 FT SOUTH AND 8-10 FT NORTH, W/ AT LEAST
12 FT OUT 20NM OVR NRN CSTL WATERS. WAVES IN THE CHES BAY UP TO
5-6 FT LATE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING. NW FLOW AND LOW END SCA CONDS
LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO WED MORNING AS SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN
FM THE W. SUB-SCA CONDS THEN FOR WED NIGHT/THU.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT NIGHT/TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF STRONG NLY
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 1 TO
1.5 FT...POSSIBLY HIGHER...DURING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLES. SITES IN THE LOWER BAY WILL REACH
HIGHEST ASTRO TIDE WITH WATER LEVELS APPROACHING MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS AT SEWELLS POINT TONIGHT. FOR OCEAN CITY...MINOR
FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH NEW GUIDANCE INDICATING AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR MODERATE. HV GONE AHEAD WITH COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR
WORCESTER COUNTY INVOF OCEAN CITY FOR TNGT. THIS WILL GIVE THE DAY
CREW ONE MORE OPPORTUNITY TO PERUSE LATEST GUIDANCE AND EITHER GO
WITH ADVY OR UPGRADE TO WARNING LATER TODAY. ANOTHER PERIOD OF
HIGH ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOMALIES DROP
OFF TUE NGT/WED AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR MDZ021>025.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR MDZ024-025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ080-081-087>090-092-093.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ048-049-061-062-068-069.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     VAZ091-094>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>634-
     654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...MAS/TMG
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS61 KRNK 261803
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
103 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...
ON ITS WAY TO THE COAST BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING PERIODS OF SNOW AND RAIN TO MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY INTO
MONDAY. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD FOLLOW THIS FEATURE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF NOON EST MONDAY...

LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY PASSING OVERHEAD WITH UPPER TROF AXIS
AND COLDER AIR SOON TO FOLLOW. AT 11AM THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE
LOW WAS OVER EASTERN WV WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO
EASTERN KY/TN. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SOUTH OF THE
LOW WERE IN THE 30S/40S WITH SOME SUN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF NC.
NORTH OF THE LOW AND WEST OF THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES WERE
BELOW FREEZING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY EAST AND
OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MOUNTAINS FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON. DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE
NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE WV HIGHLANDS WHERE ABOUT 4 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING...AND IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF FAR WESTERN VA...AND THE HIGH COUNTRY OF NC...FROM
MOUNT ROGERS VA TO BEECH MOUNTAIN NORTH CAROLINA WHERE 2-4 INCHES
OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS
ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WV HIGHLANDS. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER ONE
FOR THE NC HIGH COUNTRY TOO...ESP FOR ELEVATIONS AT OR ABOVE 4000
FEET.

AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON LOOK FOR WINDS
TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST...TEMPERATURES THEN TAKING A
TUMBLE. EVEN THOUGH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE
ACROSS THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AND NEW RIVER VALLEY...AN INCH OR
LESS...THIS SNOW WILL BE FALLING DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE AND IN
TANDEM WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING BELOW FREEZING...INGREDIENTS THAT
COULD POTENTIALLY MAKE FOR A HAZARDOUS EVENING COMMUTE EVEN WITH
JUST A LITTLE COATING OF SNOW.

FOR AREAS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD
MITIGATE ANY EVENING COMMUTE CONCERNS. NEVER THE LESS TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO TAKE A TUMBLE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING WITH
A CHANCE FOR ANY LINGERING RAIN TO MIX WITH SNOW DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT TONIGHT...THE MEDIA FOCUS WILL BE
ON COASTAL NEW ENGLAND WHERE THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL WRAP
UP INTO A MAJOR WINTER STORM. FOR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WE
GET TO DEAL WITH THE BACKLASH WINDS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS.
THEIR IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE COASTAL
STORM TO PENETRATE AS FAR SOUTH AS OUR NORTHEASTERN CWA LATE
TONIGHT...SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AS THEIR MAY BE A
NEED FOR WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES FOR AREAS NORTHEAST OF
LYNCHBURG...SPECIFICALLY APPOMATTOX...BUCKINGHAM AND POINTS NORTH
AND EAST.

EVEN THOUGH WE ARE NOT ADVERTISING MUCH PRECIP WITHIN OUR LOCAL
FORECAST...THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS VERY DYNAMIC...LOTS OF ENERGY
ALOFT THAT WILL CAUSE THIS STORM TO DEEPEN QUICKLY AS IT MOVES UP
THE EAST COAST. HAVE EVEN SEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WITHIN THE
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT WHICH IS AN INDICATOR OF
HOW UNSTABLE THIS ATMOSPHERE IS BECOMING AND THE POTENTIAL ENERGY
THAT IS BUILDING UP FOR THIS THING TO FEED OFF OF ONCE IT GETS
EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND CERTAINLY SETTING THE STAGE FOR
COASTAL BOMBOGENESIS TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH
QPF...AND IT WAS A BIT INTERESTING TO SEE ALL THE QPF THE 06Z GFS
MODEL WAS PAINTING OVER OUR CWA THIS MORNING...YET NOT MUCH WAS
OCCURRING...CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN THE MODEL. WHAT REALLY MADE IT
HUMOROUS WAS THE MODEL THEN TOOK THE 4-6 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF
AND CONVERTED IT TO ALL SNOW. ANYONE ISSUING FORECASTS AND BLINDLY
FOLLOWING GUIDANCE THIS MORNING WOULD HAVE THEN EXPERIENCED A
GOOD TASTE OF METEOROLOGICAL CANCER...A GARBAGE IN...GARBAGE OUT
SORT OF FORECAST.

QPF ISSUES ASIDE...THE IMPACT FROM THIS STORM FOR OUR LOCAL AREA
WILL BE MINOR COMPARED TO OUR NEIGHBORS TO THE NORTH. I.E. NOTHING
WE HAVN`T SEE BEFORE. IN SUMMARY...A PERIOD OF SNOW IS LIKELY FOR
OUR MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH FLURRIES AND
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING INTO TUESDAY. IT WILL BECOME
BLUSTERY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20MPH...AND GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 MPH. A 40 MPH GUST OVER THE NC/VA/WV HIGHLANDS IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE. COLDER AIR SPILLING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS...TO NEAR 30 IN
THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM EST MONDAY...

A COASTAL LOW TRACKING NORTH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
BECOME A STRONG NOR-EASTER BY DAYS END TUESDAY. THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE
BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL COVER A GOOD CHUCK OF REAL ESTATE FROM
THE GREAT LAKES...OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...AND THE CAROLINAS AND
POINTS NORTHEAST. THE MIDDLE RINGS OF THIS LOW WILL SEND A SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. THESE WAVES WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE COASTAL PIEDMONT...BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO AREAS EAST OF
HWY 29 EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS CONFIDED TO GRASSY AND/OR ELEVATED
SURFACES. THE BULK OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE FOCUSED ON NORTHERN
SLOPES AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. SHORT WAVES ON THE OUTER BANDS OF THE LOW COULD
DEPOSIT 1-2 INCHES ON THESE SLOPES NORTH OF I64...TO ABOUT AN INCH
TOWARDS THE NORTH CAROLINA HIGH COUNTY. THESE AMOUNTS ARE
QUESTIONABLE WITH THE FLOW BEING MORE NORTHERLY THAN NORTHWESTERLY
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE WETTEST OF THE SNOW WILL OCCUR MONDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO GET DRIER WITH EACH PASSING WAVE. THE DRYNESS
OF THE SNOW COULD LEAD TO HIGHER AMOUNTS BUT SHOULD NOT EXCEED 3
INCHES DURING THE UPSLOPE PORTION OF THIS EVENT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT.

WITH THE NOR-EASTER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE MID WEST...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP BREEZY AND GUSTY
CONDITIONS IN THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. PRESSURE RISES
DO NOT APPEAR TO BE TO STRONG ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERLY FLOW AND A 30-
40KT JET. THESE WINDS WILL RELAX OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
WEST TRACKS OVER THE REGION STARTING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO PEAK EARLY IN THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS ACROSS THE WEST WILL RANGE IN
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE COULD WARM TO NEAR
40F. IF WINDS COULD DECOUPLE BY SUNRISE...WEDNESDAY MORNINGS LOWS
WILL DIP INTO THE TEENS IN THE WEST TO MID 20S EAST. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE COAST ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO TRACK OVER THE AREA.
UNFORTUNATELY...WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL FALL SHY OF NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST SATURDAY...

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE GOING BACK TO SPLIT FLOW FOR THE
EXTENDED WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA DOMINATING THE
SOUTHERN STREAM...AND A WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROF FOR THE NORTHERN
STREAM. GFS IS LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WHICH GIVES
IT A WARMER LOOK THAN THE ECMWF.

WE WILL SEE A NORTHERN STREAM LOW MOVE BY TO OUR NORTH ON THURSDAY
WHICH WILL BRING US A CHANCE OF LIGHT SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION WHICH
LOOKS TO BE MIX TO RAIN FOR THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN SWING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING WHICH SETS THE STAGE
FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE WINDS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LOOK QUITE BLUSTERY RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND FORMS A
BIT OF A WEDGE WITH QUIET WEATHER FOR FOR SATURDAY. EURO WANTS TO
BRING A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY.
GFS IS NOT ON BOARD WITH THIS AND ENSEMBLES WERE NOT INDICATING A
MAJOR ARCTIC OUTBREAK. WILL BE LEANING MORE TOWARD THE GFS/ENSEMBLE
SOLUTION AND KEEP TEMPS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT A GOOD 20F WARMER
THAN THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EST MONDAY...

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL MOVE NORTHEAST DEVELOPING
INTO A MAJOR COASTAL STORM FOR NEW ENGLAND. AS THE STORM
STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL
ADVECT INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUPPORTING SNOW SHOWERS AND
BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS.

FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS PER A SHALLOW MOIST NORTHEAST WIND. ONCE THE
NORTHWEST WIND DEVELOPS THIS EVENING...THIS CLOUD LAYER SHOULD
LIFT. HOWEVER...CLOUD BASES OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN LOW
WITH PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES.

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR AREAS OF MVFR AND OCNL IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS LINGERING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH TUESDAY.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ON TUESDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
ACROSS KBLF/KLWB AND PERHAPS EVEN KBCB DUE TO SCATTERED UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS. EASTERN TAF LOCATIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR ON TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE A QUIET DAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TAF LOCATIONS. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM
ARRIVES ON THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND
VSBYS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
HINTON ALL HAZARDS RADIO...162.425MHZ WAS OFF THE AIR THIS
MORNING. TECHNICIANS ARE ONSITE.

THE ROANOKE TRANSMITTER...POOR MOUNTAIN 162.475 MHZ...IS ALSO
EXPERIENCING PROBLEMS WITH INTERMITTENT OUTAGES. TECHNICIANS ARE
ONSITE THERE ALSO.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ019-020-024.
NC...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...PM
EQUIPMENT...AMS/PM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 261803
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
103 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...
ON ITS WAY TO THE COAST BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING PERIODS OF SNOW AND RAIN TO MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY INTO
MONDAY. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD FOLLOW THIS FEATURE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF NOON EST MONDAY...

LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY PASSING OVERHEAD WITH UPPER TROF AXIS
AND COLDER AIR SOON TO FOLLOW. AT 11AM THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE
LOW WAS OVER EASTERN WV WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO
EASTERN KY/TN. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SOUTH OF THE
LOW WERE IN THE 30S/40S WITH SOME SUN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF NC.
NORTH OF THE LOW AND WEST OF THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES WERE
BELOW FREEZING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY EAST AND
OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MOUNTAINS FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON. DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE
NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE WV HIGHLANDS WHERE ABOUT 4 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING...AND IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF FAR WESTERN VA...AND THE HIGH COUNTRY OF NC...FROM
MOUNT ROGERS VA TO BEECH MOUNTAIN NORTH CAROLINA WHERE 2-4 INCHES
OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS
ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WV HIGHLANDS. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER ONE
FOR THE NC HIGH COUNTRY TOO...ESP FOR ELEVATIONS AT OR ABOVE 4000
FEET.

AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON LOOK FOR WINDS
TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST...TEMPERATURES THEN TAKING A
TUMBLE. EVEN THOUGH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE
ACROSS THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AND NEW RIVER VALLEY...AN INCH OR
LESS...THIS SNOW WILL BE FALLING DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE AND IN
TANDEM WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING BELOW FREEZING...INGREDIENTS THAT
COULD POTENTIALLY MAKE FOR A HAZARDOUS EVENING COMMUTE EVEN WITH
JUST A LITTLE COATING OF SNOW.

FOR AREAS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD
MITIGATE ANY EVENING COMMUTE CONCERNS. NEVER THE LESS TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO TAKE A TUMBLE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING WITH
A CHANCE FOR ANY LINGERING RAIN TO MIX WITH SNOW DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT TONIGHT...THE MEDIA FOCUS WILL BE
ON COASTAL NEW ENGLAND WHERE THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL WRAP
UP INTO A MAJOR WINTER STORM. FOR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WE
GET TO DEAL WITH THE BACKLASH WINDS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS.
THEIR IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE COASTAL
STORM TO PENETRATE AS FAR SOUTH AS OUR NORTHEASTERN CWA LATE
TONIGHT...SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AS THEIR MAY BE A
NEED FOR WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES FOR AREAS NORTHEAST OF
LYNCHBURG...SPECIFICALLY APPOMATTOX...BUCKINGHAM AND POINTS NORTH
AND EAST.

EVEN THOUGH WE ARE NOT ADVERTISING MUCH PRECIP WITHIN OUR LOCAL
FORECAST...THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS VERY DYNAMIC...LOTS OF ENERGY
ALOFT THAT WILL CAUSE THIS STORM TO DEEPEN QUICKLY AS IT MOVES UP
THE EAST COAST. HAVE EVEN SEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WITHIN THE
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT WHICH IS AN INDICATOR OF
HOW UNSTABLE THIS ATMOSPHERE IS BECOMING AND THE POTENTIAL ENERGY
THAT IS BUILDING UP FOR THIS THING TO FEED OFF OF ONCE IT GETS
EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND CERTAINLY SETTING THE STAGE FOR
COASTAL BOMBOGENESIS TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH
QPF...AND IT WAS A BIT INTERESTING TO SEE ALL THE QPF THE 06Z GFS
MODEL WAS PAINTING OVER OUR CWA THIS MORNING...YET NOT MUCH WAS
OCCURRING...CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN THE MODEL. WHAT REALLY MADE IT
HUMOROUS WAS THE MODEL THEN TOOK THE 4-6 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF
AND CONVERTED IT TO ALL SNOW. ANYONE ISSUING FORECASTS AND BLINDLY
FOLLOWING GUIDANCE THIS MORNING WOULD HAVE THEN EXPERIENCED A
GOOD TASTE OF METEOROLOGICAL CANCER...A GARBAGE IN...GARBAGE OUT
SORT OF FORECAST.

QPF ISSUES ASIDE...THE IMPACT FROM THIS STORM FOR OUR LOCAL AREA
WILL BE MINOR COMPARED TO OUR NEIGHBORS TO THE NORTH. I.E. NOTHING
WE HAVN`T SEE BEFORE. IN SUMMARY...A PERIOD OF SNOW IS LIKELY FOR
OUR MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH FLURRIES AND
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING INTO TUESDAY. IT WILL BECOME
BLUSTERY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20MPH...AND GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 MPH. A 40 MPH GUST OVER THE NC/VA/WV HIGHLANDS IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE. COLDER AIR SPILLING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS...TO NEAR 30 IN
THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM EST MONDAY...

A COASTAL LOW TRACKING NORTH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
BECOME A STRONG NOR-EASTER BY DAYS END TUESDAY. THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE
BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL COVER A GOOD CHUCK OF REAL ESTATE FROM
THE GREAT LAKES...OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...AND THE CAROLINAS AND
POINTS NORTHEAST. THE MIDDLE RINGS OF THIS LOW WILL SEND A SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. THESE WAVES WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE COASTAL PIEDMONT...BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO AREAS EAST OF
HWY 29 EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS CONFIDED TO GRASSY AND/OR ELEVATED
SURFACES. THE BULK OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE FOCUSED ON NORTHERN
SLOPES AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. SHORT WAVES ON THE OUTER BANDS OF THE LOW COULD
DEPOSIT 1-2 INCHES ON THESE SLOPES NORTH OF I64...TO ABOUT AN INCH
TOWARDS THE NORTH CAROLINA HIGH COUNTY. THESE AMOUNTS ARE
QUESTIONABLE WITH THE FLOW BEING MORE NORTHERLY THAN NORTHWESTERLY
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE WETTEST OF THE SNOW WILL OCCUR MONDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO GET DRIER WITH EACH PASSING WAVE. THE DRYNESS
OF THE SNOW COULD LEAD TO HIGHER AMOUNTS BUT SHOULD NOT EXCEED 3
INCHES DURING THE UPSLOPE PORTION OF THIS EVENT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT.

WITH THE NOR-EASTER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE MID WEST...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP BREEZY AND GUSTY
CONDITIONS IN THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. PRESSURE RISES
DO NOT APPEAR TO BE TO STRONG ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERLY FLOW AND A 30-
40KT JET. THESE WINDS WILL RELAX OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
WEST TRACKS OVER THE REGION STARTING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO PEAK EARLY IN THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS ACROSS THE WEST WILL RANGE IN
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE COULD WARM TO NEAR
40F. IF WINDS COULD DECOUPLE BY SUNRISE...WEDNESDAY MORNINGS LOWS
WILL DIP INTO THE TEENS IN THE WEST TO MID 20S EAST. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE COAST ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO TRACK OVER THE AREA.
UNFORTUNATELY...WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL FALL SHY OF NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST SATURDAY...

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE GOING BACK TO SPLIT FLOW FOR THE
EXTENDED WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA DOMINATING THE
SOUTHERN STREAM...AND A WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROF FOR THE NORTHERN
STREAM. GFS IS LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WHICH GIVES
IT A WARMER LOOK THAN THE ECMWF.

WE WILL SEE A NORTHERN STREAM LOW MOVE BY TO OUR NORTH ON THURSDAY
WHICH WILL BRING US A CHANCE OF LIGHT SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION WHICH
LOOKS TO BE MIX TO RAIN FOR THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN SWING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING WHICH SETS THE STAGE
FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE WINDS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LOOK QUITE BLUSTERY RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND FORMS A
BIT OF A WEDGE WITH QUIET WEATHER FOR FOR SATURDAY. EURO WANTS TO
BRING A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY.
GFS IS NOT ON BOARD WITH THIS AND ENSEMBLES WERE NOT INDICATING A
MAJOR ARCTIC OUTBREAK. WILL BE LEANING MORE TOWARD THE GFS/ENSEMBLE
SOLUTION AND KEEP TEMPS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT A GOOD 20F WARMER
THAN THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EST MONDAY...

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL MOVE NORTHEAST DEVELOPING
INTO A MAJOR COASTAL STORM FOR NEW ENGLAND. AS THE STORM
STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL
ADVECT INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUPPORTING SNOW SHOWERS AND
BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS.

FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS PER A SHALLOW MOIST NORTHEAST WIND. ONCE THE
NORTHWEST WIND DEVELOPS THIS EVENING...THIS CLOUD LAYER SHOULD
LIFT. HOWEVER...CLOUD BASES OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN LOW
WITH PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES.

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR AREAS OF MVFR AND OCNL IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS LINGERING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH TUESDAY.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ON TUESDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
ACROSS KBLF/KLWB AND PERHAPS EVEN KBCB DUE TO SCATTERED UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS. EASTERN TAF LOCATIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR ON TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE A QUIET DAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TAF LOCATIONS. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM
ARRIVES ON THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND
VSBYS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
HINTON ALL HAZARDS RADIO...162.425MHZ WAS OFF THE AIR THIS
MORNING. TECHNICIANS ARE ONSITE.

THE ROANOKE TRANSMITTER...POOR MOUNTAIN 162.475 MHZ...IS ALSO
EXPERIENCING PROBLEMS WITH INTERMITTENT OUTAGES. TECHNICIANS ARE
ONSITE THERE ALSO.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ019-020-024.
NC...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...PM
EQUIPMENT...AMS/PM



000
FXUS61 KLWX 261741 AAB
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1241 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTH TODAY. THE LOW WILL
RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OFF TO OUR NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM SWINGS THROUGH THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE FOR CANCELLATION OF THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE NRN
SHEN VLY AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS. ALSO...MODIFIED THE EXPIRATION TIME FOR THE
WRN HALF OF THE CWA TO END AT 7AM TUE MRNG...STILL 10AM FOR THE
ERN HALF INCLUDING THE DC/BALT METRO AREAS.

FROM PREV DISC...
PLENTY OF DYNAMIC FORCES AT WORK THE ATMOS FROM THE OHIO VLY...TO
THE SRN ATLC STATES...THEN BACK UP ACROSS THE ERN SEABOARD. ONE
ALREADY POTENT UPPER VORT THAT INITIALLY CAME DOWN THE UPPER
MIDWEST WILL BE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING OVER THE APLCNS AS THE
COASTAL PORTION OF THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES. IN BETWEEN THIS
OCCURRENCE LIES THE MID-ATLC REGION. AFTER A VERY SLOW AND STEADY
TRANSITION OF MORNING RAINS OVER TO SNOW FROM NORTH-TO-SOUTH...THE
FORCING FOR THE ADDITIONAL AND FUTURE SNOW BANDS WILL BE OF A
SCATTERED AND INTERMITTENT NATURE. POCKETS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW WILL DEVELOP INTO THE AFTN HRS...BUT IN VERY LOCALIZED AND
SHORT-LIVED AMOUNTS.

COMPLEX RAIN/SNOW LINE STILL EXISTS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF
DC...INCHING OVER INTO PARTS OF THE NRN VA PIEDMONT...TOWARD KCHO
AND THE I-64 CORRIDOR. AS THE COASTAL STORM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL CONTINUE ADVECTING IN WARMER AIR TO THE SOUTH AND COLDER AIR
TO THE NORTH. THE BATTLE BETWEEN THESE AREAS REMAINS CENTERED OVER
SE MD. THE BATTLE WILL SHIFT SWD OVER TIME INTO THE AFTN HRS AND
PTYPES WILL BECOME LESS OF AN ISSUE W/ ALL SNOW OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION HEADING INTO THE LATE EVE HRS. TEMPERATURES AT THAT POINT
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW AND THE HEAVIER WET FLAKES WILL
LIKELY CAUSE TRAVEL DISRUPTION THIS EVENING.

ONCE THE COASTAL DEVELOPS IT WILL INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AND PULL AWAY
FROM THE REGION TONIGHT. EARLIER INDICATION OF MORE SIGNIFICANT WRAP
AROUND SNOWFALL ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR DOES NOT APPEAR
AS SIGNIFICANT. THREAT FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOW HAS DIMINISHED. HAVE
EXPANDED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES EAST THROUGH THE I-95 CORRIDOR
AND ALSO EXPANDED FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY. IMPACTS TO THIS
EVENING COMMUTE AND SOME INTO THE TUESDAY AM COMMUTE CAN BE
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
EARLY SNOW WILL PERSIST MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS AND SOME
UPSLOPE OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. THE COASTAL LOW WILL PULL AWAY
TO THE NORTH AND SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END DURING THE DAY. COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE 20S
OUT WEST WITH 30S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DROP WIND CHILLS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS OUT WEST TO THE
LOWER 20S EAST. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TUESDAY EVENING WILL
HEAD TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. A NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL
USHER IN DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS. A FEW UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT...BUT SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY...BRINGING DRY AND
COLD CONDITIONS. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A PERIOD OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH
THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY WITH DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS.
A STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND. WINTRY
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE. TIMING AND DETAILS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR TO IFR TO PERSIST MUCH OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH SNOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER AND RAIN MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO SNOW FROM BWI
TO MTN TO IAD TO DCA THROUGH THE DAY. A STEADY LIGHT SNOW IS
EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING. THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END
OVERNIGHT OR TUESDAY AM.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING
THIS TIME. A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW TO THE
TERMINALS LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE THRU THE DAYTIME HRS...W/ INCREASING WINDS
ON THE WATERS ALONG WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENTUALLY CHANGING
TO SNOW LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS COASTAL LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY DIMINISH LATE TUESDAY
OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE
WATERS DURING THIS TIME. A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THURSDAY
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ003-502.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ004>006-
     011-013-014-503>508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR MDZ016>018.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ501.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ025>031-
     039-040-051-501>504-507-508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ037-038-050.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ052>054-
     505-506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ055>057.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ050>053-
     055-502-504>506.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ501-503.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...KLW/BJL










000
FXUS61 KLWX 261741 AAB
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1241 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTH TODAY. THE LOW WILL
RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OFF TO OUR NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM SWINGS THROUGH THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE FOR CANCELLATION OF THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE NRN
SHEN VLY AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS. ALSO...MODIFIED THE EXPIRATION TIME FOR THE
WRN HALF OF THE CWA TO END AT 7AM TUE MRNG...STILL 10AM FOR THE
ERN HALF INCLUDING THE DC/BALT METRO AREAS.

FROM PREV DISC...
PLENTY OF DYNAMIC FORCES AT WORK THE ATMOS FROM THE OHIO VLY...TO
THE SRN ATLC STATES...THEN BACK UP ACROSS THE ERN SEABOARD. ONE
ALREADY POTENT UPPER VORT THAT INITIALLY CAME DOWN THE UPPER
MIDWEST WILL BE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING OVER THE APLCNS AS THE
COASTAL PORTION OF THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES. IN BETWEEN THIS
OCCURRENCE LIES THE MID-ATLC REGION. AFTER A VERY SLOW AND STEADY
TRANSITION OF MORNING RAINS OVER TO SNOW FROM NORTH-TO-SOUTH...THE
FORCING FOR THE ADDITIONAL AND FUTURE SNOW BANDS WILL BE OF A
SCATTERED AND INTERMITTENT NATURE. POCKETS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW WILL DEVELOP INTO THE AFTN HRS...BUT IN VERY LOCALIZED AND
SHORT-LIVED AMOUNTS.

COMPLEX RAIN/SNOW LINE STILL EXISTS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF
DC...INCHING OVER INTO PARTS OF THE NRN VA PIEDMONT...TOWARD KCHO
AND THE I-64 CORRIDOR. AS THE COASTAL STORM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL CONTINUE ADVECTING IN WARMER AIR TO THE SOUTH AND COLDER AIR
TO THE NORTH. THE BATTLE BETWEEN THESE AREAS REMAINS CENTERED OVER
SE MD. THE BATTLE WILL SHIFT SWD OVER TIME INTO THE AFTN HRS AND
PTYPES WILL BECOME LESS OF AN ISSUE W/ ALL SNOW OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION HEADING INTO THE LATE EVE HRS. TEMPERATURES AT THAT POINT
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW AND THE HEAVIER WET FLAKES WILL
LIKELY CAUSE TRAVEL DISRUPTION THIS EVENING.

ONCE THE COASTAL DEVELOPS IT WILL INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AND PULL AWAY
FROM THE REGION TONIGHT. EARLIER INDICATION OF MORE SIGNIFICANT WRAP
AROUND SNOWFALL ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR DOES NOT APPEAR
AS SIGNIFICANT. THREAT FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOW HAS DIMINISHED. HAVE
EXPANDED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES EAST THROUGH THE I-95 CORRIDOR
AND ALSO EXPANDED FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY. IMPACTS TO THIS
EVENING COMMUTE AND SOME INTO THE TUESDAY AM COMMUTE CAN BE
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
EARLY SNOW WILL PERSIST MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS AND SOME
UPSLOPE OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. THE COASTAL LOW WILL PULL AWAY
TO THE NORTH AND SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END DURING THE DAY. COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE 20S
OUT WEST WITH 30S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DROP WIND CHILLS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS OUT WEST TO THE
LOWER 20S EAST. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TUESDAY EVENING WILL
HEAD TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. A NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL
USHER IN DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS. A FEW UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT...BUT SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY...BRINGING DRY AND
COLD CONDITIONS. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A PERIOD OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH
THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY WITH DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS.
A STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND. WINTRY
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE. TIMING AND DETAILS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR TO IFR TO PERSIST MUCH OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH SNOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER AND RAIN MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO SNOW FROM BWI
TO MTN TO IAD TO DCA THROUGH THE DAY. A STEADY LIGHT SNOW IS
EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING. THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END
OVERNIGHT OR TUESDAY AM.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING
THIS TIME. A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW TO THE
TERMINALS LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE THRU THE DAYTIME HRS...W/ INCREASING WINDS
ON THE WATERS ALONG WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENTUALLY CHANGING
TO SNOW LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS COASTAL LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY DIMINISH LATE TUESDAY
OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE
WATERS DURING THIS TIME. A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THURSDAY
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ003-502.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ004>006-
     011-013-014-503>508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR MDZ016>018.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ501.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ025>031-
     039-040-051-501>504-507-508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ037-038-050.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ052>054-
     505-506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ055>057.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ050>053-
     055-502-504>506.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ501-503.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...KLW/BJL









000
FXUS61 KRNK 261732
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1232 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...
ON ITS WAY TO THE COAST BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING PERIODS OF SNOW AND RAIN TO MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY INTO
MONDAY. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD FOLLOW THIS FEATURE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF NOON EST MONDAY...

LOWER PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY PASSING OVERHEAD WITH UPPER TROF AXIS
AND COLDER AIR SOON TO FOLLOW. AT 11AM THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE
LOW WAS OVER EASTERN WV WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO
EASTERN KY/TN. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SOUTH OF THE
LOW WERE IN THE 30S/40S WITH SOME SUN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF NC.
NORTH OF THE LOW AND WEST OF THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES WERE
BELOW FREEZING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY EAST AND
OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MOUNTAINS FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON. DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE
NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE WV HIGHLANDS WHERE ABOUT 4 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING...AND IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF FAR WESTERN VA...AND THE HIGH COUNTRY OF NC...FROM
MOUNT ROGERS VA TO BEECH MOUNTAIN NORTH CAROLINA WHERE 2-4 INCHES
OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS
ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WV HIGHLANDS. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER ONE
FOR THE NC HIGH COUNTRY TOO...ESP FOR ELEVATIONS AT OR ABOVE 4000
FEET.

AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON LOOK FOR WINDS
TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST...TEMPERATURES THEN TAKING A
TUMBLE. EVEN THOUGH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE
ACROSS THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AND NEW RIVER VALLEY...AN INCH OR
LESS...THIS SNOW WILL BE FALLING DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE AND IN
TANDEM WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING BELOW FREEZING...INGREDIENTS THAT
COULD POTENTIALLY MAKE FOR A HAZARDOUS EVENING COMMUTE EVEN WITH
JUST A LITTLE COATING OF SNOW.

FOR AREAS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD
MITIGATE ANY EVENING COMMUTE CONCERNS. NEVER THE LESS TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO TAKE A TUMBLE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING WITH
A CHANCE FOR ANY LINGERING RAIN TO MIX WITH SNOW DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT TONIGHT...THE MEDIA FOCUS WILL BE
ON COASTAL NEW ENGLAND WHERE THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL WRAP
UP INTO A MAJOR WINTER STORM. FOR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WE
GET TO DEAL WITH THE BACKLASH WINDS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS.
THEIR IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE COASTAL
STORM TO PENETRATE AS FAR SOUTH AS OUR NORTHEASTERN CWA LATE
TONIGHT...SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AS THEIR MAY BE A
NEED FOR WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES FOR AREAS NORTHEAST OF
LYNCHBURG...SPECIFICALLY APPOMATTOX...BUCKINGHAM AND POINTS NORTH
AND EAST.

EVEN THOUGH WE ARE NOT ADVERTISING MUCH PRECIP WITHIN OUR LOCAL
FORECAST...THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS VERY DYNAMIC...LOTS OF ENERGY
ALOFT THAT WILL CAUSE THIS STORM TO DEEPEN QUICKLY AS IT MOVES UP
THE EAST COAST. HAVE EVEN SEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WITHIN THE
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT WHICH IS AN INDICATOR OF
HOW UNSTABLE THIS ATMOSPHERE IS BECOMING AND THE POTENTIAL ENERGY
THAT IS BUILDING UP FOR THIS THING TO FEED OFF OF ONCE IT GETS
EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND CERTAINLY SETTING THE STAGE FOR
COASTAL BOMBOGENESIS TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH
QPF...AND IT WAS A BIT INTERESTING TO SEE ALL THE QPF THE 06Z GFS
MODEL WAS PAINTING OVER OUR CWA THIS MORNING...YET NOT MUCH WAS
OCCURRING...CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN THE MODEL. WHAT REALLY MADE IT
HUMOROUS WAS THE MODEL THEN TOOK THE 4-6 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF
AND CONVERTED IT TO ALL SNOW. ANYONE ISSUING FORECASTS AND BLINDLY
FOLLOWING GUIDANCE THIS MORNING WOULD HAVE THEN EXPERIENCED A
GOOD TASTE OF METEOROLOGICAL CANCER...A GARBAGE IN...GARBAGE OUT
SORT OF FORECAST.

QPF ISSUES ASIDE...THE IMPACT FROM THIS STORM FOR OUR LOCAL AREA
WILL BE MINOR COMPARED TO OUR NEIGHBORS TO THE NORTH. I.E. NOTHING
WE HAVN`T SEE BEFORE. IN SUMMARY...A PERIOD OF SNOW IS LIKELY FOR
OUR MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH FLURRIES AND
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING INTO TUESDAY. IT WILL BECOME
BLUSTERY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20MPH...AND GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 MPH. A 40 MPH GUST OVER THE NC/VA/WV HIGHLANDS IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE. COLDER AIR SPILLING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS...TO NEAR 30 IN
THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM EST MONDAY...

A COASTAL LOW TRACKING NORTH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
BECOME A STRONG NOR-EASTER BY DAYS END TUESDAY. THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE
BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL COVER A GOOD CHUCK OF REAL ESTATE FROM
THE GREAT LAKES...OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...AND THE CAROLINAS AND
POINTS NORTHEAST. THE MIDDLE RINGS OF THIS LOW WILL SEND A SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. THESE WAVES WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE COASTAL PIEDMONT...BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO AREAS EAST OF
HWY 29 EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS CONFIDED TO GRASSY AND/OR ELEVATED
SURFACES. THE BULK OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE FOCUSED ON NORTHERN
SLOPES AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. SHORT WAVES ON THE OUTER BANDS OF THE LOW COULD
DEPOSIT 1-2 INCHES ON THESE SLOPES NORTH OF I64...TO ABOUT AN INCH
TOWARDS THE NORTH CAROLINA HIGH COUNTY. THESE AMOUNTS ARE
QUESTIONABLE WITH THE FLOW BEING MORE NORTHERLY THAN NORTHWESTERLY
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE WETTEST OF THE SNOW WILL OCCUR MONDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO GET DRIER WITH EACH PASSING WAVE. THE DRYNESS
OF THE SNOW COULD LEAD TO HIGHER AMOUNTS BUT SHOULD NOT EXCEED 3
INCHES DURING THE UPSLOPE PORTION OF THIS EVENT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT.

WITH THE NOR-EASTER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE MID WEST...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP BREEZY AND GUSTY
CONDITIONS IN THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. PRESSURE RISES
DO NOT APPEAR TO BE TO STRONG ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERLY FLOW AND A 30-
40KT JET. THESE WINDS WILL RELAX OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
WEST TRACKS OVER THE REGION STARTING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO PEAK EARLY IN THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS ACROSS THE WEST WILL RANGE IN
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE COULD WARM TO NEAR
40F. IF WINDS COULD DECOUPLE BY SUNRISE...WEDNESDAY MORNINGS LOWS
WILL DIP INTO THE TEENS IN THE WEST TO MID 20S EAST. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE COAST ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO TRACK OVER THE AREA.
UNFORTUNATELY...WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL FALL SHY OF NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST SATURDAY...

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE GOING BACK TO SPLIT FLOW FOR THE
EXTENDED WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA DOMINATING THE
SOUTHERN STREAM...AND A WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROF FOR THE NORTHERN
STREAM. GFS IS LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WHICH GIVES
IT A WARMER LOOK THAN THE ECMWF.

WE WILL SEE A NORTHERN STREAM LOW MOVE BY TO OUR NORTH ON THURSDAY
WHICH WILL BRING US A CHANCE OF LIGHT SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION WHICH
LOOKS TO BE MIX TO RAIN FOR THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN SWING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING WHICH SETS THE STAGE
FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE WINDS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LOOK QUITE BLUSTERY RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND FORMS A
BIT OF A WEDGE WITH QUIET WEATHER FOR FOR SATURDAY. EURO WANTS TO
BRING A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY.
GFS IS NOT ON BOARD WITH THIS AND ENSEMBLES WERE NOT INDICATING A
MAJOR ARCTIC OUTBREAK. WILL BE LEANING MORE TOWARD THE GFS/ENSEMBLE
SOLUTION AND KEEP TEMPS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT A GOOD 20F WARMER
THAN THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 715 AM EST MONDAY...

A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
THIS MORNING. WINDS IN THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING WESTERLY WEST OF
INTERSTATE 77...WITH LIGHT EAST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. MOST CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION ARE VFR..IN THE 3KFT
TO 6KFT RANGE...HOWEVER BANDS OF SNOW/RAIN PASSING ACROSS NORTHERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA ARE MAKING FOR OCCASIONAL
MVFR VISIBILITIES.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST THIS MORNING...REACHING THE
COAST BY AROUND 18Z. BANDS OF PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOW
ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE ELEVATION DEPENDENT
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHER RIDGES RECEIVING ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL...WHILE THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND THE PIEDMONT CAN EXPECT
A RAIN SNOW MIX WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW...EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY...
WITH WINDS BECOMING GUSTY BY 00Z AT ALL TAF SITES AS THE LOW
DEEPENS OFFSHORE. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO DRAG COLDER AIR
INTO THE REGION...CAUSING RAIN TO INCREASINGLY CHANGE OVER TO
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST. SNOW BANDS DURING THE
EVENING WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES LOCALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
RIDGES...KBLF/KLWB...TO 2SM TO 4SM AT TIMES. SNOW SHOWERS MAY
REACH AS FAR EAST AS KBCB/KROA CAUSING REDUCED VISIBILITIES...BUT
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...CAN ALSO EXPECT
CEILINGS TO LOWER TO MVFR/IFR AREAWIDE.

CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE MONDAY NIGHT FROM EAST TO WEST IN
THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW...BUT EXPECT LOW MVFR/IFR TO REMAIN THROUGH THE
NIGHT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ON TUESDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
ACROSS KBLF/KLWB AND PERHAPS EVEN KBCB DUE TO SCATTERED UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS. EASTERN TAF LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR ON TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE A QUIET DAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TAF LOCATIONS. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM
ARRIVES ON THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND
VSBYS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
HINTON ALL HAZARDS RADIO...162.425MHZ IS OFF THE AIR. THERE IS NO
ESTIMATE FOR RETURN TO SERVICE.

THE ROANOKE TRANSMITTER...POOR MOUNTAIN 162.475 MHZ...IS ALSO
EXPERIENCING PROMBLEMS WITH INTERMITTENT OUTAGES.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ019-020-024.
NC...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...NF
EQUIPMENT...AMS/PM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 261732
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1232 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...
ON ITS WAY TO THE COAST BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING PERIODS OF SNOW AND RAIN TO MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY INTO
MONDAY. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD FOLLOW THIS FEATURE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF NOON EST MONDAY...

LOWER PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY PASSING OVERHEAD WITH UPPER TROF AXIS
AND COLDER AIR SOON TO FOLLOW. AT 11AM THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE
LOW WAS OVER EASTERN WV WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO
EASTERN KY/TN. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SOUTH OF THE
LOW WERE IN THE 30S/40S WITH SOME SUN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF NC.
NORTH OF THE LOW AND WEST OF THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES WERE
BELOW FREEZING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY EAST AND
OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MOUNTAINS FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON. DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE
NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE WV HIGHLANDS WHERE ABOUT 4 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING...AND IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF FAR WESTERN VA...AND THE HIGH COUNTRY OF NC...FROM
MOUNT ROGERS VA TO BEECH MOUNTAIN NORTH CAROLINA WHERE 2-4 INCHES
OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS
ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WV HIGHLANDS. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER ONE
FOR THE NC HIGH COUNTRY TOO...ESP FOR ELEVATIONS AT OR ABOVE 4000
FEET.

AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON LOOK FOR WINDS
TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST...TEMPERATURES THEN TAKING A
TUMBLE. EVEN THOUGH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE
ACROSS THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AND NEW RIVER VALLEY...AN INCH OR
LESS...THIS SNOW WILL BE FALLING DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE AND IN
TANDEM WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING BELOW FREEZING...INGREDIENTS THAT
COULD POTENTIALLY MAKE FOR A HAZARDOUS EVENING COMMUTE EVEN WITH
JUST A LITTLE COATING OF SNOW.

FOR AREAS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD
MITIGATE ANY EVENING COMMUTE CONCERNS. NEVER THE LESS TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO TAKE A TUMBLE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING WITH
A CHANCE FOR ANY LINGERING RAIN TO MIX WITH SNOW DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT TONIGHT...THE MEDIA FOCUS WILL BE
ON COASTAL NEW ENGLAND WHERE THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL WRAP
UP INTO A MAJOR WINTER STORM. FOR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WE
GET TO DEAL WITH THE BACKLASH WINDS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS.
THEIR IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE COASTAL
STORM TO PENETRATE AS FAR SOUTH AS OUR NORTHEASTERN CWA LATE
TONIGHT...SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AS THEIR MAY BE A
NEED FOR WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES FOR AREAS NORTHEAST OF
LYNCHBURG...SPECIFICALLY APPOMATTOX...BUCKINGHAM AND POINTS NORTH
AND EAST.

EVEN THOUGH WE ARE NOT ADVERTISING MUCH PRECIP WITHIN OUR LOCAL
FORECAST...THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS VERY DYNAMIC...LOTS OF ENERGY
ALOFT THAT WILL CAUSE THIS STORM TO DEEPEN QUICKLY AS IT MOVES UP
THE EAST COAST. HAVE EVEN SEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WITHIN THE
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT WHICH IS AN INDICATOR OF
HOW UNSTABLE THIS ATMOSPHERE IS BECOMING AND THE POTENTIAL ENERGY
THAT IS BUILDING UP FOR THIS THING TO FEED OFF OF ONCE IT GETS
EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND CERTAINLY SETTING THE STAGE FOR
COASTAL BOMBOGENESIS TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH
QPF...AND IT WAS A BIT INTERESTING TO SEE ALL THE QPF THE 06Z GFS
MODEL WAS PAINTING OVER OUR CWA THIS MORNING...YET NOT MUCH WAS
OCCURRING...CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN THE MODEL. WHAT REALLY MADE IT
HUMOROUS WAS THE MODEL THEN TOOK THE 4-6 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF
AND CONVERTED IT TO ALL SNOW. ANYONE ISSUING FORECASTS AND BLINDLY
FOLLOWING GUIDANCE THIS MORNING WOULD HAVE THEN EXPERIENCED A
GOOD TASTE OF METEOROLOGICAL CANCER...A GARBAGE IN...GARBAGE OUT
SORT OF FORECAST.

QPF ISSUES ASIDE...THE IMPACT FROM THIS STORM FOR OUR LOCAL AREA
WILL BE MINOR COMPARED TO OUR NEIGHBORS TO THE NORTH. I.E. NOTHING
WE HAVN`T SEE BEFORE. IN SUMMARY...A PERIOD OF SNOW IS LIKELY FOR
OUR MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH FLURRIES AND
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING INTO TUESDAY. IT WILL BECOME
BLUSTERY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20MPH...AND GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 MPH. A 40 MPH GUST OVER THE NC/VA/WV HIGHLANDS IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE. COLDER AIR SPILLING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS...TO NEAR 30 IN
THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM EST MONDAY...

A COASTAL LOW TRACKING NORTH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
BECOME A STRONG NOR-EASTER BY DAYS END TUESDAY. THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE
BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL COVER A GOOD CHUCK OF REAL ESTATE FROM
THE GREAT LAKES...OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...AND THE CAROLINAS AND
POINTS NORTHEAST. THE MIDDLE RINGS OF THIS LOW WILL SEND A SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. THESE WAVES WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE COASTAL PIEDMONT...BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO AREAS EAST OF
HWY 29 EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS CONFIDED TO GRASSY AND/OR ELEVATED
SURFACES. THE BULK OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE FOCUSED ON NORTHERN
SLOPES AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. SHORT WAVES ON THE OUTER BANDS OF THE LOW COULD
DEPOSIT 1-2 INCHES ON THESE SLOPES NORTH OF I64...TO ABOUT AN INCH
TOWARDS THE NORTH CAROLINA HIGH COUNTY. THESE AMOUNTS ARE
QUESTIONABLE WITH THE FLOW BEING MORE NORTHERLY THAN NORTHWESTERLY
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE WETTEST OF THE SNOW WILL OCCUR MONDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO GET DRIER WITH EACH PASSING WAVE. THE DRYNESS
OF THE SNOW COULD LEAD TO HIGHER AMOUNTS BUT SHOULD NOT EXCEED 3
INCHES DURING THE UPSLOPE PORTION OF THIS EVENT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT.

WITH THE NOR-EASTER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE MID WEST...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP BREEZY AND GUSTY
CONDITIONS IN THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. PRESSURE RISES
DO NOT APPEAR TO BE TO STRONG ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERLY FLOW AND A 30-
40KT JET. THESE WINDS WILL RELAX OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
WEST TRACKS OVER THE REGION STARTING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO PEAK EARLY IN THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS ACROSS THE WEST WILL RANGE IN
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE COULD WARM TO NEAR
40F. IF WINDS COULD DECOUPLE BY SUNRISE...WEDNESDAY MORNINGS LOWS
WILL DIP INTO THE TEENS IN THE WEST TO MID 20S EAST. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE COAST ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO TRACK OVER THE AREA.
UNFORTUNATELY...WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL FALL SHY OF NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST SATURDAY...

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE GOING BACK TO SPLIT FLOW FOR THE
EXTENDED WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA DOMINATING THE
SOUTHERN STREAM...AND A WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROF FOR THE NORTHERN
STREAM. GFS IS LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WHICH GIVES
IT A WARMER LOOK THAN THE ECMWF.

WE WILL SEE A NORTHERN STREAM LOW MOVE BY TO OUR NORTH ON THURSDAY
WHICH WILL BRING US A CHANCE OF LIGHT SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION WHICH
LOOKS TO BE MIX TO RAIN FOR THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN SWING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING WHICH SETS THE STAGE
FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE WINDS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LOOK QUITE BLUSTERY RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND FORMS A
BIT OF A WEDGE WITH QUIET WEATHER FOR FOR SATURDAY. EURO WANTS TO
BRING A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY.
GFS IS NOT ON BOARD WITH THIS AND ENSEMBLES WERE NOT INDICATING A
MAJOR ARCTIC OUTBREAK. WILL BE LEANING MORE TOWARD THE GFS/ENSEMBLE
SOLUTION AND KEEP TEMPS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT A GOOD 20F WARMER
THAN THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 715 AM EST MONDAY...

A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
THIS MORNING. WINDS IN THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING WESTERLY WEST OF
INTERSTATE 77...WITH LIGHT EAST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. MOST CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION ARE VFR..IN THE 3KFT
TO 6KFT RANGE...HOWEVER BANDS OF SNOW/RAIN PASSING ACROSS NORTHERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA ARE MAKING FOR OCCASIONAL
MVFR VISIBILITIES.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST THIS MORNING...REACHING THE
COAST BY AROUND 18Z. BANDS OF PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOW
ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE ELEVATION DEPENDENT
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHER RIDGES RECEIVING ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL...WHILE THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND THE PIEDMONT CAN EXPECT
A RAIN SNOW MIX WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW...EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY...
WITH WINDS BECOMING GUSTY BY 00Z AT ALL TAF SITES AS THE LOW
DEEPENS OFFSHORE. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO DRAG COLDER AIR
INTO THE REGION...CAUSING RAIN TO INCREASINGLY CHANGE OVER TO
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST. SNOW BANDS DURING THE
EVENING WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES LOCALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
RIDGES...KBLF/KLWB...TO 2SM TO 4SM AT TIMES. SNOW SHOWERS MAY
REACH AS FAR EAST AS KBCB/KROA CAUSING REDUCED VISIBILITIES...BUT
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...CAN ALSO EXPECT
CEILINGS TO LOWER TO MVFR/IFR AREAWIDE.

CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE MONDAY NIGHT FROM EAST TO WEST IN
THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW...BUT EXPECT LOW MVFR/IFR TO REMAIN THROUGH THE
NIGHT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ON TUESDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
ACROSS KBLF/KLWB AND PERHAPS EVEN KBCB DUE TO SCATTERED UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS. EASTERN TAF LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR ON TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE A QUIET DAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TAF LOCATIONS. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM
ARRIVES ON THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND
VSBYS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
HINTON ALL HAZARDS RADIO...162.425MHZ IS OFF THE AIR. THERE IS NO
ESTIMATE FOR RETURN TO SERVICE.

THE ROANOKE TRANSMITTER...POOR MOUNTAIN 162.475 MHZ...IS ALSO
EXPERIENCING PROMBLEMS WITH INTERMITTENT OUTAGES.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ019-020-024.
NC...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...NF
EQUIPMENT...AMS/PM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 261732
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1232 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...
ON ITS WAY TO THE COAST BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING PERIODS OF SNOW AND RAIN TO MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY INTO
MONDAY. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD FOLLOW THIS FEATURE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF NOON EST MONDAY...

LOWER PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY PASSING OVERHEAD WITH UPPER TROF AXIS
AND COLDER AIR SOON TO FOLLOW. AT 11AM THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE
LOW WAS OVER EASTERN WV WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO
EASTERN KY/TN. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SOUTH OF THE
LOW WERE IN THE 30S/40S WITH SOME SUN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF NC.
NORTH OF THE LOW AND WEST OF THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES WERE
BELOW FREEZING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY EAST AND
OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MOUNTAINS FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON. DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE
NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE WV HIGHLANDS WHERE ABOUT 4 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING...AND IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF FAR WESTERN VA...AND THE HIGH COUNTRY OF NC...FROM
MOUNT ROGERS VA TO BEECH MOUNTAIN NORTH CAROLINA WHERE 2-4 INCHES
OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS
ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WV HIGHLANDS. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER ONE
FOR THE NC HIGH COUNTRY TOO...ESP FOR ELEVATIONS AT OR ABOVE 4000
FEET.

AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON LOOK FOR WINDS
TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST...TEMPERATURES THEN TAKING A
TUMBLE. EVEN THOUGH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE
ACROSS THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AND NEW RIVER VALLEY...AN INCH OR
LESS...THIS SNOW WILL BE FALLING DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE AND IN
TANDEM WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING BELOW FREEZING...INGREDIENTS THAT
COULD POTENTIALLY MAKE FOR A HAZARDOUS EVENING COMMUTE EVEN WITH
JUST A LITTLE COATING OF SNOW.

FOR AREAS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD
MITIGATE ANY EVENING COMMUTE CONCERNS. NEVER THE LESS TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO TAKE A TUMBLE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING WITH
A CHANCE FOR ANY LINGERING RAIN TO MIX WITH SNOW DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT TONIGHT...THE MEDIA FOCUS WILL BE
ON COASTAL NEW ENGLAND WHERE THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL WRAP
UP INTO A MAJOR WINTER STORM. FOR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WE
GET TO DEAL WITH THE BACKLASH WINDS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS.
THEIR IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE COASTAL
STORM TO PENETRATE AS FAR SOUTH AS OUR NORTHEASTERN CWA LATE
TONIGHT...SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AS THEIR MAY BE A
NEED FOR WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES FOR AREAS NORTHEAST OF
LYNCHBURG...SPECIFICALLY APPOMATTOX...BUCKINGHAM AND POINTS NORTH
AND EAST.

EVEN THOUGH WE ARE NOT ADVERTISING MUCH PRECIP WITHIN OUR LOCAL
FORECAST...THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS VERY DYNAMIC...LOTS OF ENERGY
ALOFT THAT WILL CAUSE THIS STORM TO DEEPEN QUICKLY AS IT MOVES UP
THE EAST COAST. HAVE EVEN SEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WITHIN THE
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT WHICH IS AN INDICATOR OF
HOW UNSTABLE THIS ATMOSPHERE IS BECOMING AND THE POTENTIAL ENERGY
THAT IS BUILDING UP FOR THIS THING TO FEED OFF OF ONCE IT GETS
EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND CERTAINLY SETTING THE STAGE FOR
COASTAL BOMBOGENESIS TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH
QPF...AND IT WAS A BIT INTERESTING TO SEE ALL THE QPF THE 06Z GFS
MODEL WAS PAINTING OVER OUR CWA THIS MORNING...YET NOT MUCH WAS
OCCURRING...CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN THE MODEL. WHAT REALLY MADE IT
HUMOROUS WAS THE MODEL THEN TOOK THE 4-6 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF
AND CONVERTED IT TO ALL SNOW. ANYONE ISSUING FORECASTS AND BLINDLY
FOLLOWING GUIDANCE THIS MORNING WOULD HAVE THEN EXPERIENCED A
GOOD TASTE OF METEOROLOGICAL CANCER...A GARBAGE IN...GARBAGE OUT
SORT OF FORECAST.

QPF ISSUES ASIDE...THE IMPACT FROM THIS STORM FOR OUR LOCAL AREA
WILL BE MINOR COMPARED TO OUR NEIGHBORS TO THE NORTH. I.E. NOTHING
WE HAVN`T SEE BEFORE. IN SUMMARY...A PERIOD OF SNOW IS LIKELY FOR
OUR MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH FLURRIES AND
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING INTO TUESDAY. IT WILL BECOME
BLUSTERY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20MPH...AND GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 MPH. A 40 MPH GUST OVER THE NC/VA/WV HIGHLANDS IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE. COLDER AIR SPILLING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS...TO NEAR 30 IN
THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM EST MONDAY...

A COASTAL LOW TRACKING NORTH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
BECOME A STRONG NOR-EASTER BY DAYS END TUESDAY. THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE
BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL COVER A GOOD CHUCK OF REAL ESTATE FROM
THE GREAT LAKES...OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...AND THE CAROLINAS AND
POINTS NORTHEAST. THE MIDDLE RINGS OF THIS LOW WILL SEND A SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. THESE WAVES WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE COASTAL PIEDMONT...BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO AREAS EAST OF
HWY 29 EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS CONFIDED TO GRASSY AND/OR ELEVATED
SURFACES. THE BULK OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE FOCUSED ON NORTHERN
SLOPES AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. SHORT WAVES ON THE OUTER BANDS OF THE LOW COULD
DEPOSIT 1-2 INCHES ON THESE SLOPES NORTH OF I64...TO ABOUT AN INCH
TOWARDS THE NORTH CAROLINA HIGH COUNTY. THESE AMOUNTS ARE
QUESTIONABLE WITH THE FLOW BEING MORE NORTHERLY THAN NORTHWESTERLY
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE WETTEST OF THE SNOW WILL OCCUR MONDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO GET DRIER WITH EACH PASSING WAVE. THE DRYNESS
OF THE SNOW COULD LEAD TO HIGHER AMOUNTS BUT SHOULD NOT EXCEED 3
INCHES DURING THE UPSLOPE PORTION OF THIS EVENT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT.

WITH THE NOR-EASTER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE MID WEST...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP BREEZY AND GUSTY
CONDITIONS IN THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. PRESSURE RISES
DO NOT APPEAR TO BE TO STRONG ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERLY FLOW AND A 30-
40KT JET. THESE WINDS WILL RELAX OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
WEST TRACKS OVER THE REGION STARTING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO PEAK EARLY IN THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS ACROSS THE WEST WILL RANGE IN
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE COULD WARM TO NEAR
40F. IF WINDS COULD DECOUPLE BY SUNRISE...WEDNESDAY MORNINGS LOWS
WILL DIP INTO THE TEENS IN THE WEST TO MID 20S EAST. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE COAST ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO TRACK OVER THE AREA.
UNFORTUNATELY...WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL FALL SHY OF NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST SATURDAY...

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE GOING BACK TO SPLIT FLOW FOR THE
EXTENDED WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA DOMINATING THE
SOUTHERN STREAM...AND A WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROF FOR THE NORTHERN
STREAM. GFS IS LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WHICH GIVES
IT A WARMER LOOK THAN THE ECMWF.

WE WILL SEE A NORTHERN STREAM LOW MOVE BY TO OUR NORTH ON THURSDAY
WHICH WILL BRING US A CHANCE OF LIGHT SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION WHICH
LOOKS TO BE MIX TO RAIN FOR THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN SWING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING WHICH SETS THE STAGE
FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE WINDS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LOOK QUITE BLUSTERY RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND FORMS A
BIT OF A WEDGE WITH QUIET WEATHER FOR FOR SATURDAY. EURO WANTS TO
BRING A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY.
GFS IS NOT ON BOARD WITH THIS AND ENSEMBLES WERE NOT INDICATING A
MAJOR ARCTIC OUTBREAK. WILL BE LEANING MORE TOWARD THE GFS/ENSEMBLE
SOLUTION AND KEEP TEMPS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT A GOOD 20F WARMER
THAN THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 715 AM EST MONDAY...

A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
THIS MORNING. WINDS IN THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING WESTERLY WEST OF
INTERSTATE 77...WITH LIGHT EAST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. MOST CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION ARE VFR..IN THE 3KFT
TO 6KFT RANGE...HOWEVER BANDS OF SNOW/RAIN PASSING ACROSS NORTHERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA ARE MAKING FOR OCCASIONAL
MVFR VISIBILITIES.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST THIS MORNING...REACHING THE
COAST BY AROUND 18Z. BANDS OF PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOW
ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE ELEVATION DEPENDENT
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHER RIDGES RECEIVING ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL...WHILE THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND THE PIEDMONT CAN EXPECT
A RAIN SNOW MIX WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW...EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY...
WITH WINDS BECOMING GUSTY BY 00Z AT ALL TAF SITES AS THE LOW
DEEPENS OFFSHORE. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO DRAG COLDER AIR
INTO THE REGION...CAUSING RAIN TO INCREASINGLY CHANGE OVER TO
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST. SNOW BANDS DURING THE
EVENING WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES LOCALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
RIDGES...KBLF/KLWB...TO 2SM TO 4SM AT TIMES. SNOW SHOWERS MAY
REACH AS FAR EAST AS KBCB/KROA CAUSING REDUCED VISIBILITIES...BUT
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...CAN ALSO EXPECT
CEILINGS TO LOWER TO MVFR/IFR AREAWIDE.

CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE MONDAY NIGHT FROM EAST TO WEST IN
THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW...BUT EXPECT LOW MVFR/IFR TO REMAIN THROUGH THE
NIGHT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ON TUESDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
ACROSS KBLF/KLWB AND PERHAPS EVEN KBCB DUE TO SCATTERED UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS. EASTERN TAF LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR ON TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE A QUIET DAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TAF LOCATIONS. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM
ARRIVES ON THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND
VSBYS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
HINTON ALL HAZARDS RADIO...162.425MHZ IS OFF THE AIR. THERE IS NO
ESTIMATE FOR RETURN TO SERVICE.

THE ROANOKE TRANSMITTER...POOR MOUNTAIN 162.475 MHZ...IS ALSO
EXPERIENCING PROMBLEMS WITH INTERMITTENT OUTAGES.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ019-020-024.
NC...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...NF
EQUIPMENT...AMS/PM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 261732
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1232 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...
ON ITS WAY TO THE COAST BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING PERIODS OF SNOW AND RAIN TO MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY INTO
MONDAY. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD FOLLOW THIS FEATURE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF NOON EST MONDAY...

LOWER PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY PASSING OVERHEAD WITH UPPER TROF AXIS
AND COLDER AIR SOON TO FOLLOW. AT 11AM THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE
LOW WAS OVER EASTERN WV WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO
EASTERN KY/TN. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SOUTH OF THE
LOW WERE IN THE 30S/40S WITH SOME SUN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF NC.
NORTH OF THE LOW AND WEST OF THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES WERE
BELOW FREEZING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY EAST AND
OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MOUNTAINS FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON. DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE
NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE WV HIGHLANDS WHERE ABOUT 4 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING...AND IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF FAR WESTERN VA...AND THE HIGH COUNTRY OF NC...FROM
MOUNT ROGERS VA TO BEECH MOUNTAIN NORTH CAROLINA WHERE 2-4 INCHES
OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS
ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WV HIGHLANDS. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER ONE
FOR THE NC HIGH COUNTRY TOO...ESP FOR ELEVATIONS AT OR ABOVE 4000
FEET.

AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON LOOK FOR WINDS
TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST...TEMPERATURES THEN TAKING A
TUMBLE. EVEN THOUGH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE
ACROSS THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AND NEW RIVER VALLEY...AN INCH OR
LESS...THIS SNOW WILL BE FALLING DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE AND IN
TANDEM WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING BELOW FREEZING...INGREDIENTS THAT
COULD POTENTIALLY MAKE FOR A HAZARDOUS EVENING COMMUTE EVEN WITH
JUST A LITTLE COATING OF SNOW.

FOR AREAS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD
MITIGATE ANY EVENING COMMUTE CONCERNS. NEVER THE LESS TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO TAKE A TUMBLE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING WITH
A CHANCE FOR ANY LINGERING RAIN TO MIX WITH SNOW DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT TONIGHT...THE MEDIA FOCUS WILL BE
ON COASTAL NEW ENGLAND WHERE THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL WRAP
UP INTO A MAJOR WINTER STORM. FOR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WE
GET TO DEAL WITH THE BACKLASH WINDS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS.
THEIR IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE COASTAL
STORM TO PENETRATE AS FAR SOUTH AS OUR NORTHEASTERN CWA LATE
TONIGHT...SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AS THEIR MAY BE A
NEED FOR WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES FOR AREAS NORTHEAST OF
LYNCHBURG...SPECIFICALLY APPOMATTOX...BUCKINGHAM AND POINTS NORTH
AND EAST.

EVEN THOUGH WE ARE NOT ADVERTISING MUCH PRECIP WITHIN OUR LOCAL
FORECAST...THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS VERY DYNAMIC...LOTS OF ENERGY
ALOFT THAT WILL CAUSE THIS STORM TO DEEPEN QUICKLY AS IT MOVES UP
THE EAST COAST. HAVE EVEN SEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WITHIN THE
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT WHICH IS AN INDICATOR OF
HOW UNSTABLE THIS ATMOSPHERE IS BECOMING AND THE POTENTIAL ENERGY
THAT IS BUILDING UP FOR THIS THING TO FEED OFF OF ONCE IT GETS
EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND CERTAINLY SETTING THE STAGE FOR
COASTAL BOMBOGENESIS TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH
QPF...AND IT WAS A BIT INTERESTING TO SEE ALL THE QPF THE 06Z GFS
MODEL WAS PAINTING OVER OUR CWA THIS MORNING...YET NOT MUCH WAS
OCCURRING...CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN THE MODEL. WHAT REALLY MADE IT
HUMOROUS WAS THE MODEL THEN TOOK THE 4-6 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF
AND CONVERTED IT TO ALL SNOW. ANYONE ISSUING FORECASTS AND BLINDLY
FOLLOWING GUIDANCE THIS MORNING WOULD HAVE THEN EXPERIENCED A
GOOD TASTE OF METEOROLOGICAL CANCER...A GARBAGE IN...GARBAGE OUT
SORT OF FORECAST.

QPF ISSUES ASIDE...THE IMPACT FROM THIS STORM FOR OUR LOCAL AREA
WILL BE MINOR COMPARED TO OUR NEIGHBORS TO THE NORTH. I.E. NOTHING
WE HAVN`T SEE BEFORE. IN SUMMARY...A PERIOD OF SNOW IS LIKELY FOR
OUR MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH FLURRIES AND
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING INTO TUESDAY. IT WILL BECOME
BLUSTERY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20MPH...AND GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 MPH. A 40 MPH GUST OVER THE NC/VA/WV HIGHLANDS IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE. COLDER AIR SPILLING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS...TO NEAR 30 IN
THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM EST MONDAY...

A COASTAL LOW TRACKING NORTH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
BECOME A STRONG NOR-EASTER BY DAYS END TUESDAY. THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE
BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL COVER A GOOD CHUCK OF REAL ESTATE FROM
THE GREAT LAKES...OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...AND THE CAROLINAS AND
POINTS NORTHEAST. THE MIDDLE RINGS OF THIS LOW WILL SEND A SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. THESE WAVES WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE COASTAL PIEDMONT...BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO AREAS EAST OF
HWY 29 EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS CONFIDED TO GRASSY AND/OR ELEVATED
SURFACES. THE BULK OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE FOCUSED ON NORTHERN
SLOPES AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. SHORT WAVES ON THE OUTER BANDS OF THE LOW COULD
DEPOSIT 1-2 INCHES ON THESE SLOPES NORTH OF I64...TO ABOUT AN INCH
TOWARDS THE NORTH CAROLINA HIGH COUNTY. THESE AMOUNTS ARE
QUESTIONABLE WITH THE FLOW BEING MORE NORTHERLY THAN NORTHWESTERLY
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE WETTEST OF THE SNOW WILL OCCUR MONDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO GET DRIER WITH EACH PASSING WAVE. THE DRYNESS
OF THE SNOW COULD LEAD TO HIGHER AMOUNTS BUT SHOULD NOT EXCEED 3
INCHES DURING THE UPSLOPE PORTION OF THIS EVENT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT.

WITH THE NOR-EASTER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE MID WEST...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP BREEZY AND GUSTY
CONDITIONS IN THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. PRESSURE RISES
DO NOT APPEAR TO BE TO STRONG ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERLY FLOW AND A 30-
40KT JET. THESE WINDS WILL RELAX OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
WEST TRACKS OVER THE REGION STARTING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO PEAK EARLY IN THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS ACROSS THE WEST WILL RANGE IN
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE COULD WARM TO NEAR
40F. IF WINDS COULD DECOUPLE BY SUNRISE...WEDNESDAY MORNINGS LOWS
WILL DIP INTO THE TEENS IN THE WEST TO MID 20S EAST. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE COAST ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO TRACK OVER THE AREA.
UNFORTUNATELY...WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL FALL SHY OF NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST SATURDAY...

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE GOING BACK TO SPLIT FLOW FOR THE
EXTENDED WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA DOMINATING THE
SOUTHERN STREAM...AND A WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROF FOR THE NORTHERN
STREAM. GFS IS LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WHICH GIVES
IT A WARMER LOOK THAN THE ECMWF.

WE WILL SEE A NORTHERN STREAM LOW MOVE BY TO OUR NORTH ON THURSDAY
WHICH WILL BRING US A CHANCE OF LIGHT SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION WHICH
LOOKS TO BE MIX TO RAIN FOR THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN SWING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING WHICH SETS THE STAGE
FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE WINDS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LOOK QUITE BLUSTERY RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND FORMS A
BIT OF A WEDGE WITH QUIET WEATHER FOR FOR SATURDAY. EURO WANTS TO
BRING A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY.
GFS IS NOT ON BOARD WITH THIS AND ENSEMBLES WERE NOT INDICATING A
MAJOR ARCTIC OUTBREAK. WILL BE LEANING MORE TOWARD THE GFS/ENSEMBLE
SOLUTION AND KEEP TEMPS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT A GOOD 20F WARMER
THAN THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 715 AM EST MONDAY...

A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
THIS MORNING. WINDS IN THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING WESTERLY WEST OF
INTERSTATE 77...WITH LIGHT EAST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. MOST CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION ARE VFR..IN THE 3KFT
TO 6KFT RANGE...HOWEVER BANDS OF SNOW/RAIN PASSING ACROSS NORTHERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA ARE MAKING FOR OCCASIONAL
MVFR VISIBILITIES.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST THIS MORNING...REACHING THE
COAST BY AROUND 18Z. BANDS OF PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOW
ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE ELEVATION DEPENDENT
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHER RIDGES RECEIVING ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL...WHILE THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND THE PIEDMONT CAN EXPECT
A RAIN SNOW MIX WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW...EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY...
WITH WINDS BECOMING GUSTY BY 00Z AT ALL TAF SITES AS THE LOW
DEEPENS OFFSHORE. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO DRAG COLDER AIR
INTO THE REGION...CAUSING RAIN TO INCREASINGLY CHANGE OVER TO
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST. SNOW BANDS DURING THE
EVENING WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES LOCALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
RIDGES...KBLF/KLWB...TO 2SM TO 4SM AT TIMES. SNOW SHOWERS MAY
REACH AS FAR EAST AS KBCB/KROA CAUSING REDUCED VISIBILITIES...BUT
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...CAN ALSO EXPECT
CEILINGS TO LOWER TO MVFR/IFR AREAWIDE.

CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE MONDAY NIGHT FROM EAST TO WEST IN
THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW...BUT EXPECT LOW MVFR/IFR TO REMAIN THROUGH THE
NIGHT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ON TUESDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
ACROSS KBLF/KLWB AND PERHAPS EVEN KBCB DUE TO SCATTERED UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS. EASTERN TAF LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR ON TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE A QUIET DAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TAF LOCATIONS. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM
ARRIVES ON THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND
VSBYS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
HINTON ALL HAZARDS RADIO...162.425MHZ IS OFF THE AIR. THERE IS NO
ESTIMATE FOR RETURN TO SERVICE.

THE ROANOKE TRANSMITTER...POOR MOUNTAIN 162.475 MHZ...IS ALSO
EXPERIENCING PROMBLEMS WITH INTERMITTENT OUTAGES.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ019-020-024.
NC...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...NF
EQUIPMENT...AMS/PM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 261634
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1134 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
WEAKEN THIS MORNING...WHILE A NEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW WILL THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NORTH NORTHEAST
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAIN CHANGE TO TODAYS FORECAST WAS TO RAISE MAX TEMPS
EVERYWHERE...AND POPS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING AREA OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL VORT MAX OVER NORTH-CENTRAL NC. THIS
WILL MAINLY AFFECT PORTIONS OF NE NC. OTWS...NO CHANGES TO WINTER
HEADLINES ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS MORNG...AREA OF RAIN WAS MOVNG INTO WRN AND NRN
COUNTIES IN ADVANCE OF SFC LO OVR SW VA AND UPR TROF PUSHING ACRS
THE MTNS. THE LO WILL WEAKEN THIS MORNG...WHILE A NEW LO PRES
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NC CST BY EARLY THIS AFTN. THAT LO
WILL THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLC CST INTO THIS EVENG.
COMBINATION OF THE SFC LO RE-DEVELOPMENT AND UPR TROF SWINGING
ACRS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN CHCS FOR RAIN TODAY INTO THIS
EVENG. HIGHEST POPS (60-80%) WILL BE OVR THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA
WHERE BEST LIFT WILL BE...WITH 30-40% POPS OVR THE SRN HALF. TEMPS
WILL WARM A BIT INTO EARLY AFTN DESPITE CLOUD COVER...POSSIBLE
PCPN AS WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FM THE E. HI TEMPS WILL RANGE FM
THE LWR 40S NW TO THE MID 50S OVR NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WILL FAVOR A BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM/ECMWF FOR THIS PERIOD. THE MAIN
EVENT FOR OUR AREA BEGINS TNGT INTO TUE MORNG...AS COLDER AIR
PLUNGES S IN RESPONSE TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SFC LO OFF
THE MID ATLC AND SRN NEW ENGLAND CST. STILL MAINLY RAIN ACRS THE
SRN 2/3 OF THE CWA IN THE EVENING...THEN TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW
BETWEEN 00Z-09Z FM NW TO SE. DURING THIS TIME...BEST LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS
WILL RESIDE OFF THE CST OR NE OF OUR CWA. HOWEVER...WILL BE
RELYING ON DEFORMATION ZONE AND POSSIBLE BANDING DEVELOPMENT FM
THE DELMARVA TO LONG ISLAND TO "WRAP AROUND" AND DROP S OVR THE
LWR MD ERN SHR...AND PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND ERN VA FM THIS EVENG
THRU TUE MORNG. THUS...BASED ON THE ABOVE REASONING AND WPC
FCSTS...HAVE ISSUED WINTER WX ADVISORIES FOR MOST OF THE CWA WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SW COUNTIES OF SCNTRL VA AND ALL OF NE NC
COUNTIES. GENERALLY...ADVSYS WILL RUN FM 8PM-1AM THIS EVENG/TNGT
TO 8AM-NOON TUE. ANY CHANGE IN THE POSITION OF THE BANDING CAN HAVE
DRASTIC EFFECTS ON SNOW AMOUNTS...SO UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS
RATHER HIGH. FOR NOW...HAVE FORECAST 2-4" OF SNOW ON THE LWR MD
ERN SHR...WITH 1-3" ACRS NRN NECK/VA ERN SHR...1-2" ACRS THE ERN
VA PIEDMONT/CNTRL VA INCLUDING RIC METRO AND TRI-CITIES...THEN
TAPERED TO 1" OR LESS OVR SCNTRL VA AND SE VA INCLUDING HAMPTON
RDS AND THE TIDEWATER AREA.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF AND END LATE TUE MORNG/AFTN...BUT
IF 00Z ECMWF IS CORRECT...THIS WOULD BE SLOWER AND ADDITIONAL
SNOW AMOUNTS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED...ESPLY OVR THE LWR MD ERN SHR.
LOWS TNGT IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S...HIGHS ON TUE RANGING FM THE
MID 30S TO LWR 40S. CLEARING/COLD TUE NGT/WED WITH LOWS IN THE
20S AND HIGHS ON WED RANGING FM THE LWR/MID 40S SW TO THE LWR/MID
30S NE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH DRY WX MOST
DAYS. FOR WED NIGHT...SFC HI PRES BLDS OVR THE MID ATLANTIC AND SE
STATES AS THE NEXT LO PRES SYSTM APPROACHES FM THE W. WITH A MSTLY
CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S IN MOST
SPOTS. LO PRES AND AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL VORT MAX WILL BRING
PRECIP (PLAIN RAIN) INTO THE AREA STARTING LATE THU. FAVORED THE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION...WITH A 30% CHANCE OF PRECIP (RA/SN
NORTH AND RA SOUTH) THU NIGHT...WITH LO TEMPS IN THE LO TO MID 30S.
CONDS THEN DRY OUT INTO FRI AND SAT AS SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W.
EXPECT A PRTLY CLOUDY SKY BOTH DAYS WITH NW WINDS AND HI TEMPS
FALLING FM THE 40S ON FRI TO THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 724 AM EST...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS
DETERIORATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUD BASES WILL LOWER TO MVFR
FIRST OVER RIC/SBY THROUGH 15Z...THEN BY LATE MORNING/AFTN OVER
PHF/ORF/ECG. LIGHT RAIN IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP MAINLY AT RIC THIS
MORNING...WITH VCSH WORDING AT SBY BY LATE MORNING. WENT AHEAD AND
LOWERED SBY TO IFR AFTER 18Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. BLENDED
CURRENT POPS WITH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE FOR STARTING TIMES OF PCPN.
CIGS AND VSBYS LOWER TO MVFR AND IN SOME CASES IFR DURING THE AFTN
EXCEPT AT ECG. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS FOR THIS TAF PERIOD AND
BEYOND APPEAR TO BE LINING UP FOR SBY WHERE NE WINDS WILL ALSO
BECOME GUSTY.

OUTLOOK...RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS
MONDAY INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY (02-06Z/TUESDAY) AND
CONTINUES TROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES AT
SBY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WHERE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALLIS
CURRENTLY FORECAST. ELSEWHERE, A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED AT RIC/PHF/ORF WITH ONLY A TRACE AMTS OF SNOW EXPECTED AT
ECG. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE AFTN AND THROUGH THE
EVENING AT SBY AND WL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT MON ESPECIALLY DURING
PERIODS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW. IFR CONDS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT AT PHF/ORF/ECG, MAINLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AND
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

DRY AND MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR PCPN LATE IN THE WEEK MAINLY ON THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 11AM...HEADLINES NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THIS MORNING.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING THIS MORNING
OFF THE ERN NC COAST. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS RAMP UP THRU THE
AFTERNOON...FIRST ACROSS THE NRN BAY AND COASTAL ZONES...THEN SWD TO
ALL WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS IN THE NRN COASTAL ZONES
ALREADY UP TO 6 FT THANKS TO NE WINDS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
THRU THE DAY. PLEASE REFER TO PREV DISCUSSION FOR MORE INFO.

PREV DISCUSSION...
GALE WATCH HEADLINE HAS BEEN CONVERTED TO SMALL CRAFT ADVY THROUGH
WED, WITH GALE WARNING REMAINING IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. E-SE FLOW OVER THE WATERS WILL BACK TO THE E-NE EARLY THIS
MORNING AND EVENTUALITY TO THE NW LATER TODAY. SFC LOW WILL
REDEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA CST LATE TODAY, AND WILL INTENSIFY AS
IT SLOWLY LIFTS NE INTO TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR GALES
CONTINUES OVER NORTHERN ZONES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RAPIDLY
DEEPENING SFC LOW. SCA`S OVER REMAINDER OF THE WATERS AS FLOW
BECOMES NW AND INCREASES TO 20-25KT. RAPID RAMP UP OF WINDS WILL
QUICKLY BUILD SEAS TO 6-9 FT SOUTH AND 8-10 FT NORTH, W/ AT LEAST
12 FT OUT 20NM OVR NRN CSTL WATERS. WAVES IN THE CHES BAY UP TO
5-6 FT LATE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING. NW FLOW AND LOW END SCA CONDS
LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO WED MORNING AS SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN
FM THE W. SUB-SCA CONDS THEN FOR WED NIGHT/THU.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT NIGHT/TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF STRONG NLY
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 1 TO
1.5 FT...POSSIBLY HIGHER...DURING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLES. SITES IN THE LOWER BAY WILL REACH
HIGHEST ASTRO TIDE WITH WATER LEVELS APPROACHING MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS AT SEWELLS POINT TONIGHT. FOR OCEAN CITY...MINOR
FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH NEW GUIDANCE INDICATING AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR MODERATE. HV GONE AHEAD WITH COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR
WORCESTER COUNTY INVOF OCEAN CITY FOR TNGT. THIS WILL GIVE THE DAY
CREW ONE MORE OPPORTUNITY TO PERUSE LATEST GUIDANCE AND EITHER GO
WITH ADVY OR UPGRADE TO WARNING LATER TODAY. ANOTHER PERIOD OF
HIGH ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOMALIES DROP
OFF TUE NGT/WED AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR MDZ021>025.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR MDZ024-025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ080-081-087>090-092-093.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ048-049-061-062-068-069.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     VAZ091-094>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>634-
     654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...MAS/TMG
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 261634
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1134 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
WEAKEN THIS MORNING...WHILE A NEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW WILL THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NORTH NORTHEAST
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAIN CHANGE TO TODAYS FORECAST WAS TO RAISE MAX TEMPS
EVERYWHERE...AND POPS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING AREA OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL VORT MAX OVER NORTH-CENTRAL NC. THIS
WILL MAINLY AFFECT PORTIONS OF NE NC. OTWS...NO CHANGES TO WINTER
HEADLINES ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS MORNG...AREA OF RAIN WAS MOVNG INTO WRN AND NRN
COUNTIES IN ADVANCE OF SFC LO OVR SW VA AND UPR TROF PUSHING ACRS
THE MTNS. THE LO WILL WEAKEN THIS MORNG...WHILE A NEW LO PRES
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NC CST BY EARLY THIS AFTN. THAT LO
WILL THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLC CST INTO THIS EVENG.
COMBINATION OF THE SFC LO RE-DEVELOPMENT AND UPR TROF SWINGING
ACRS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN CHCS FOR RAIN TODAY INTO THIS
EVENG. HIGHEST POPS (60-80%) WILL BE OVR THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA
WHERE BEST LIFT WILL BE...WITH 30-40% POPS OVR THE SRN HALF. TEMPS
WILL WARM A BIT INTO EARLY AFTN DESPITE CLOUD COVER...POSSIBLE
PCPN AS WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FM THE E. HI TEMPS WILL RANGE FM
THE LWR 40S NW TO THE MID 50S OVR NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WILL FAVOR A BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM/ECMWF FOR THIS PERIOD. THE MAIN
EVENT FOR OUR AREA BEGINS TNGT INTO TUE MORNG...AS COLDER AIR
PLUNGES S IN RESPONSE TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SFC LO OFF
THE MID ATLC AND SRN NEW ENGLAND CST. STILL MAINLY RAIN ACRS THE
SRN 2/3 OF THE CWA IN THE EVENING...THEN TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW
BETWEEN 00Z-09Z FM NW TO SE. DURING THIS TIME...BEST LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS
WILL RESIDE OFF THE CST OR NE OF OUR CWA. HOWEVER...WILL BE
RELYING ON DEFORMATION ZONE AND POSSIBLE BANDING DEVELOPMENT FM
THE DELMARVA TO LONG ISLAND TO "WRAP AROUND" AND DROP S OVR THE
LWR MD ERN SHR...AND PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND ERN VA FM THIS EVENG
THRU TUE MORNG. THUS...BASED ON THE ABOVE REASONING AND WPC
FCSTS...HAVE ISSUED WINTER WX ADVISORIES FOR MOST OF THE CWA WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SW COUNTIES OF SCNTRL VA AND ALL OF NE NC
COUNTIES. GENERALLY...ADVSYS WILL RUN FM 8PM-1AM THIS EVENG/TNGT
TO 8AM-NOON TUE. ANY CHANGE IN THE POSITION OF THE BANDING CAN HAVE
DRASTIC EFFECTS ON SNOW AMOUNTS...SO UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS
RATHER HIGH. FOR NOW...HAVE FORECAST 2-4" OF SNOW ON THE LWR MD
ERN SHR...WITH 1-3" ACRS NRN NECK/VA ERN SHR...1-2" ACRS THE ERN
VA PIEDMONT/CNTRL VA INCLUDING RIC METRO AND TRI-CITIES...THEN
TAPERED TO 1" OR LESS OVR SCNTRL VA AND SE VA INCLUDING HAMPTON
RDS AND THE TIDEWATER AREA.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF AND END LATE TUE MORNG/AFTN...BUT
IF 00Z ECMWF IS CORRECT...THIS WOULD BE SLOWER AND ADDITIONAL
SNOW AMOUNTS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED...ESPLY OVR THE LWR MD ERN SHR.
LOWS TNGT IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S...HIGHS ON TUE RANGING FM THE
MID 30S TO LWR 40S. CLEARING/COLD TUE NGT/WED WITH LOWS IN THE
20S AND HIGHS ON WED RANGING FM THE LWR/MID 40S SW TO THE LWR/MID
30S NE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH DRY WX MOST
DAYS. FOR WED NIGHT...SFC HI PRES BLDS OVR THE MID ATLANTIC AND SE
STATES AS THE NEXT LO PRES SYSTM APPROACHES FM THE W. WITH A MSTLY
CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S IN MOST
SPOTS. LO PRES AND AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL VORT MAX WILL BRING
PRECIP (PLAIN RAIN) INTO THE AREA STARTING LATE THU. FAVORED THE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION...WITH A 30% CHANCE OF PRECIP (RA/SN
NORTH AND RA SOUTH) THU NIGHT...WITH LO TEMPS IN THE LO TO MID 30S.
CONDS THEN DRY OUT INTO FRI AND SAT AS SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W.
EXPECT A PRTLY CLOUDY SKY BOTH DAYS WITH NW WINDS AND HI TEMPS
FALLING FM THE 40S ON FRI TO THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 724 AM EST...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS
DETERIORATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUD BASES WILL LOWER TO MVFR
FIRST OVER RIC/SBY THROUGH 15Z...THEN BY LATE MORNING/AFTN OVER
PHF/ORF/ECG. LIGHT RAIN IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP MAINLY AT RIC THIS
MORNING...WITH VCSH WORDING AT SBY BY LATE MORNING. WENT AHEAD AND
LOWERED SBY TO IFR AFTER 18Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. BLENDED
CURRENT POPS WITH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE FOR STARTING TIMES OF PCPN.
CIGS AND VSBYS LOWER TO MVFR AND IN SOME CASES IFR DURING THE AFTN
EXCEPT AT ECG. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS FOR THIS TAF PERIOD AND
BEYOND APPEAR TO BE LINING UP FOR SBY WHERE NE WINDS WILL ALSO
BECOME GUSTY.

OUTLOOK...RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS
MONDAY INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY (02-06Z/TUESDAY) AND
CONTINUES TROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES AT
SBY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WHERE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALLIS
CURRENTLY FORECAST. ELSEWHERE, A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED AT RIC/PHF/ORF WITH ONLY A TRACE AMTS OF SNOW EXPECTED AT
ECG. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE AFTN AND THROUGH THE
EVENING AT SBY AND WL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT MON ESPECIALLY DURING
PERIODS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW. IFR CONDS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT AT PHF/ORF/ECG, MAINLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AND
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

DRY AND MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR PCPN LATE IN THE WEEK MAINLY ON THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 11AM...HEADLINES NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THIS MORNING.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING THIS MORNING
OFF THE ERN NC COAST. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS RAMP UP THRU THE
AFTERNOON...FIRST ACROSS THE NRN BAY AND COASTAL ZONES...THEN SWD TO
ALL WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS IN THE NRN COASTAL ZONES
ALREADY UP TO 6 FT THANKS TO NE WINDS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
THRU THE DAY. PLEASE REFER TO PREV DISCUSSION FOR MORE INFO.

PREV DISCUSSION...
GALE WATCH HEADLINE HAS BEEN CONVERTED TO SMALL CRAFT ADVY THROUGH
WED, WITH GALE WARNING REMAINING IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. E-SE FLOW OVER THE WATERS WILL BACK TO THE E-NE EARLY THIS
MORNING AND EVENTUALITY TO THE NW LATER TODAY. SFC LOW WILL
REDEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA CST LATE TODAY, AND WILL INTENSIFY AS
IT SLOWLY LIFTS NE INTO TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR GALES
CONTINUES OVER NORTHERN ZONES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RAPIDLY
DEEPENING SFC LOW. SCA`S OVER REMAINDER OF THE WATERS AS FLOW
BECOMES NW AND INCREASES TO 20-25KT. RAPID RAMP UP OF WINDS WILL
QUICKLY BUILD SEAS TO 6-9 FT SOUTH AND 8-10 FT NORTH, W/ AT LEAST
12 FT OUT 20NM OVR NRN CSTL WATERS. WAVES IN THE CHES BAY UP TO
5-6 FT LATE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING. NW FLOW AND LOW END SCA CONDS
LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO WED MORNING AS SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN
FM THE W. SUB-SCA CONDS THEN FOR WED NIGHT/THU.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT NIGHT/TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF STRONG NLY
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 1 TO
1.5 FT...POSSIBLY HIGHER...DURING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLES. SITES IN THE LOWER BAY WILL REACH
HIGHEST ASTRO TIDE WITH WATER LEVELS APPROACHING MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS AT SEWELLS POINT TONIGHT. FOR OCEAN CITY...MINOR
FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH NEW GUIDANCE INDICATING AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR MODERATE. HV GONE AHEAD WITH COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR
WORCESTER COUNTY INVOF OCEAN CITY FOR TNGT. THIS WILL GIVE THE DAY
CREW ONE MORE OPPORTUNITY TO PERUSE LATEST GUIDANCE AND EITHER GO
WITH ADVY OR UPGRADE TO WARNING LATER TODAY. ANOTHER PERIOD OF
HIGH ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOMALIES DROP
OFF TUE NGT/WED AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR MDZ021>025.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR MDZ024-025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ080-081-087>090-092-093.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ048-049-061-062-068-069.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     VAZ091-094>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>634-
     654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...MAS/TMG
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 261634
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1134 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
WEAKEN THIS MORNING...WHILE A NEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW WILL THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NORTH NORTHEAST
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAIN CHANGE TO TODAYS FORECAST WAS TO RAISE MAX TEMPS
EVERYWHERE...AND POPS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING AREA OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL VORT MAX OVER NORTH-CENTRAL NC. THIS
WILL MAINLY AFFECT PORTIONS OF NE NC. OTWS...NO CHANGES TO WINTER
HEADLINES ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS MORNG...AREA OF RAIN WAS MOVNG INTO WRN AND NRN
COUNTIES IN ADVANCE OF SFC LO OVR SW VA AND UPR TROF PUSHING ACRS
THE MTNS. THE LO WILL WEAKEN THIS MORNG...WHILE A NEW LO PRES
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NC CST BY EARLY THIS AFTN. THAT LO
WILL THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLC CST INTO THIS EVENG.
COMBINATION OF THE SFC LO RE-DEVELOPMENT AND UPR TROF SWINGING
ACRS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN CHCS FOR RAIN TODAY INTO THIS
EVENG. HIGHEST POPS (60-80%) WILL BE OVR THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA
WHERE BEST LIFT WILL BE...WITH 30-40% POPS OVR THE SRN HALF. TEMPS
WILL WARM A BIT INTO EARLY AFTN DESPITE CLOUD COVER...POSSIBLE
PCPN AS WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FM THE E. HI TEMPS WILL RANGE FM
THE LWR 40S NW TO THE MID 50S OVR NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WILL FAVOR A BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM/ECMWF FOR THIS PERIOD. THE MAIN
EVENT FOR OUR AREA BEGINS TNGT INTO TUE MORNG...AS COLDER AIR
PLUNGES S IN RESPONSE TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SFC LO OFF
THE MID ATLC AND SRN NEW ENGLAND CST. STILL MAINLY RAIN ACRS THE
SRN 2/3 OF THE CWA IN THE EVENING...THEN TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW
BETWEEN 00Z-09Z FM NW TO SE. DURING THIS TIME...BEST LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS
WILL RESIDE OFF THE CST OR NE OF OUR CWA. HOWEVER...WILL BE
RELYING ON DEFORMATION ZONE AND POSSIBLE BANDING DEVELOPMENT FM
THE DELMARVA TO LONG ISLAND TO "WRAP AROUND" AND DROP S OVR THE
LWR MD ERN SHR...AND PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND ERN VA FM THIS EVENG
THRU TUE MORNG. THUS...BASED ON THE ABOVE REASONING AND WPC
FCSTS...HAVE ISSUED WINTER WX ADVISORIES FOR MOST OF THE CWA WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SW COUNTIES OF SCNTRL VA AND ALL OF NE NC
COUNTIES. GENERALLY...ADVSYS WILL RUN FM 8PM-1AM THIS EVENG/TNGT
TO 8AM-NOON TUE. ANY CHANGE IN THE POSITION OF THE BANDING CAN HAVE
DRASTIC EFFECTS ON SNOW AMOUNTS...SO UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS
RATHER HIGH. FOR NOW...HAVE FORECAST 2-4" OF SNOW ON THE LWR MD
ERN SHR...WITH 1-3" ACRS NRN NECK/VA ERN SHR...1-2" ACRS THE ERN
VA PIEDMONT/CNTRL VA INCLUDING RIC METRO AND TRI-CITIES...THEN
TAPERED TO 1" OR LESS OVR SCNTRL VA AND SE VA INCLUDING HAMPTON
RDS AND THE TIDEWATER AREA.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF AND END LATE TUE MORNG/AFTN...BUT
IF 00Z ECMWF IS CORRECT...THIS WOULD BE SLOWER AND ADDITIONAL
SNOW AMOUNTS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED...ESPLY OVR THE LWR MD ERN SHR.
LOWS TNGT IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S...HIGHS ON TUE RANGING FM THE
MID 30S TO LWR 40S. CLEARING/COLD TUE NGT/WED WITH LOWS IN THE
20S AND HIGHS ON WED RANGING FM THE LWR/MID 40S SW TO THE LWR/MID
30S NE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH DRY WX MOST
DAYS. FOR WED NIGHT...SFC HI PRES BLDS OVR THE MID ATLANTIC AND SE
STATES AS THE NEXT LO PRES SYSTM APPROACHES FM THE W. WITH A MSTLY
CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S IN MOST
SPOTS. LO PRES AND AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL VORT MAX WILL BRING
PRECIP (PLAIN RAIN) INTO THE AREA STARTING LATE THU. FAVORED THE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION...WITH A 30% CHANCE OF PRECIP (RA/SN
NORTH AND RA SOUTH) THU NIGHT...WITH LO TEMPS IN THE LO TO MID 30S.
CONDS THEN DRY OUT INTO FRI AND SAT AS SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W.
EXPECT A PRTLY CLOUDY SKY BOTH DAYS WITH NW WINDS AND HI TEMPS
FALLING FM THE 40S ON FRI TO THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 724 AM EST...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS
DETERIORATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUD BASES WILL LOWER TO MVFR
FIRST OVER RIC/SBY THROUGH 15Z...THEN BY LATE MORNING/AFTN OVER
PHF/ORF/ECG. LIGHT RAIN IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP MAINLY AT RIC THIS
MORNING...WITH VCSH WORDING AT SBY BY LATE MORNING. WENT AHEAD AND
LOWERED SBY TO IFR AFTER 18Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. BLENDED
CURRENT POPS WITH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE FOR STARTING TIMES OF PCPN.
CIGS AND VSBYS LOWER TO MVFR AND IN SOME CASES IFR DURING THE AFTN
EXCEPT AT ECG. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS FOR THIS TAF PERIOD AND
BEYOND APPEAR TO BE LINING UP FOR SBY WHERE NE WINDS WILL ALSO
BECOME GUSTY.

OUTLOOK...RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS
MONDAY INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY (02-06Z/TUESDAY) AND
CONTINUES TROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES AT
SBY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WHERE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALLIS
CURRENTLY FORECAST. ELSEWHERE, A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED AT RIC/PHF/ORF WITH ONLY A TRACE AMTS OF SNOW EXPECTED AT
ECG. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE AFTN AND THROUGH THE
EVENING AT SBY AND WL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT MON ESPECIALLY DURING
PERIODS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW. IFR CONDS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT AT PHF/ORF/ECG, MAINLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AND
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

DRY AND MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR PCPN LATE IN THE WEEK MAINLY ON THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 11AM...HEADLINES NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THIS MORNING.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING THIS MORNING
OFF THE ERN NC COAST. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS RAMP UP THRU THE
AFTERNOON...FIRST ACROSS THE NRN BAY AND COASTAL ZONES...THEN SWD TO
ALL WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS IN THE NRN COASTAL ZONES
ALREADY UP TO 6 FT THANKS TO NE WINDS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
THRU THE DAY. PLEASE REFER TO PREV DISCUSSION FOR MORE INFO.

PREV DISCUSSION...
GALE WATCH HEADLINE HAS BEEN CONVERTED TO SMALL CRAFT ADVY THROUGH
WED, WITH GALE WARNING REMAINING IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. E-SE FLOW OVER THE WATERS WILL BACK TO THE E-NE EARLY THIS
MORNING AND EVENTUALITY TO THE NW LATER TODAY. SFC LOW WILL
REDEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA CST LATE TODAY, AND WILL INTENSIFY AS
IT SLOWLY LIFTS NE INTO TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR GALES
CONTINUES OVER NORTHERN ZONES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RAPIDLY
DEEPENING SFC LOW. SCA`S OVER REMAINDER OF THE WATERS AS FLOW
BECOMES NW AND INCREASES TO 20-25KT. RAPID RAMP UP OF WINDS WILL
QUICKLY BUILD SEAS TO 6-9 FT SOUTH AND 8-10 FT NORTH, W/ AT LEAST
12 FT OUT 20NM OVR NRN CSTL WATERS. WAVES IN THE CHES BAY UP TO
5-6 FT LATE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING. NW FLOW AND LOW END SCA CONDS
LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO WED MORNING AS SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN
FM THE W. SUB-SCA CONDS THEN FOR WED NIGHT/THU.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT NIGHT/TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF STRONG NLY
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 1 TO
1.5 FT...POSSIBLY HIGHER...DURING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLES. SITES IN THE LOWER BAY WILL REACH
HIGHEST ASTRO TIDE WITH WATER LEVELS APPROACHING MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS AT SEWELLS POINT TONIGHT. FOR OCEAN CITY...MINOR
FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH NEW GUIDANCE INDICATING AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR MODERATE. HV GONE AHEAD WITH COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR
WORCESTER COUNTY INVOF OCEAN CITY FOR TNGT. THIS WILL GIVE THE DAY
CREW ONE MORE OPPORTUNITY TO PERUSE LATEST GUIDANCE AND EITHER GO
WITH ADVY OR UPGRADE TO WARNING LATER TODAY. ANOTHER PERIOD OF
HIGH ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOMALIES DROP
OFF TUE NGT/WED AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR MDZ021>025.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR MDZ024-025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ080-081-087>090-092-093.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ048-049-061-062-068-069.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     VAZ091-094>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>634-
     654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...MAS/TMG
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 261634
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1134 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
WEAKEN THIS MORNING...WHILE A NEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW WILL THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NORTH NORTHEAST
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAIN CHANGE TO TODAYS FORECAST WAS TO RAISE MAX TEMPS
EVERYWHERE...AND POPS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING AREA OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL VORT MAX OVER NORTH-CENTRAL NC. THIS
WILL MAINLY AFFECT PORTIONS OF NE NC. OTWS...NO CHANGES TO WINTER
HEADLINES ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS MORNG...AREA OF RAIN WAS MOVNG INTO WRN AND NRN
COUNTIES IN ADVANCE OF SFC LO OVR SW VA AND UPR TROF PUSHING ACRS
THE MTNS. THE LO WILL WEAKEN THIS MORNG...WHILE A NEW LO PRES
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NC CST BY EARLY THIS AFTN. THAT LO
WILL THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLC CST INTO THIS EVENG.
COMBINATION OF THE SFC LO RE-DEVELOPMENT AND UPR TROF SWINGING
ACRS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN CHCS FOR RAIN TODAY INTO THIS
EVENG. HIGHEST POPS (60-80%) WILL BE OVR THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA
WHERE BEST LIFT WILL BE...WITH 30-40% POPS OVR THE SRN HALF. TEMPS
WILL WARM A BIT INTO EARLY AFTN DESPITE CLOUD COVER...POSSIBLE
PCPN AS WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FM THE E. HI TEMPS WILL RANGE FM
THE LWR 40S NW TO THE MID 50S OVR NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WILL FAVOR A BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM/ECMWF FOR THIS PERIOD. THE MAIN
EVENT FOR OUR AREA BEGINS TNGT INTO TUE MORNG...AS COLDER AIR
PLUNGES S IN RESPONSE TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SFC LO OFF
THE MID ATLC AND SRN NEW ENGLAND CST. STILL MAINLY RAIN ACRS THE
SRN 2/3 OF THE CWA IN THE EVENING...THEN TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW
BETWEEN 00Z-09Z FM NW TO SE. DURING THIS TIME...BEST LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS
WILL RESIDE OFF THE CST OR NE OF OUR CWA. HOWEVER...WILL BE
RELYING ON DEFORMATION ZONE AND POSSIBLE BANDING DEVELOPMENT FM
THE DELMARVA TO LONG ISLAND TO "WRAP AROUND" AND DROP S OVR THE
LWR MD ERN SHR...AND PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND ERN VA FM THIS EVENG
THRU TUE MORNG. THUS...BASED ON THE ABOVE REASONING AND WPC
FCSTS...HAVE ISSUED WINTER WX ADVISORIES FOR MOST OF THE CWA WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SW COUNTIES OF SCNTRL VA AND ALL OF NE NC
COUNTIES. GENERALLY...ADVSYS WILL RUN FM 8PM-1AM THIS EVENG/TNGT
TO 8AM-NOON TUE. ANY CHANGE IN THE POSITION OF THE BANDING CAN HAVE
DRASTIC EFFECTS ON SNOW AMOUNTS...SO UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS
RATHER HIGH. FOR NOW...HAVE FORECAST 2-4" OF SNOW ON THE LWR MD
ERN SHR...WITH 1-3" ACRS NRN NECK/VA ERN SHR...1-2" ACRS THE ERN
VA PIEDMONT/CNTRL VA INCLUDING RIC METRO AND TRI-CITIES...THEN
TAPERED TO 1" OR LESS OVR SCNTRL VA AND SE VA INCLUDING HAMPTON
RDS AND THE TIDEWATER AREA.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF AND END LATE TUE MORNG/AFTN...BUT
IF 00Z ECMWF IS CORRECT...THIS WOULD BE SLOWER AND ADDITIONAL
SNOW AMOUNTS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED...ESPLY OVR THE LWR MD ERN SHR.
LOWS TNGT IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S...HIGHS ON TUE RANGING FM THE
MID 30S TO LWR 40S. CLEARING/COLD TUE NGT/WED WITH LOWS IN THE
20S AND HIGHS ON WED RANGING FM THE LWR/MID 40S SW TO THE LWR/MID
30S NE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH DRY WX MOST
DAYS. FOR WED NIGHT...SFC HI PRES BLDS OVR THE MID ATLANTIC AND SE
STATES AS THE NEXT LO PRES SYSTM APPROACHES FM THE W. WITH A MSTLY
CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S IN MOST
SPOTS. LO PRES AND AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL VORT MAX WILL BRING
PRECIP (PLAIN RAIN) INTO THE AREA STARTING LATE THU. FAVORED THE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION...WITH A 30% CHANCE OF PRECIP (RA/SN
NORTH AND RA SOUTH) THU NIGHT...WITH LO TEMPS IN THE LO TO MID 30S.
CONDS THEN DRY OUT INTO FRI AND SAT AS SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W.
EXPECT A PRTLY CLOUDY SKY BOTH DAYS WITH NW WINDS AND HI TEMPS
FALLING FM THE 40S ON FRI TO THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 724 AM EST...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS
DETERIORATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUD BASES WILL LOWER TO MVFR
FIRST OVER RIC/SBY THROUGH 15Z...THEN BY LATE MORNING/AFTN OVER
PHF/ORF/ECG. LIGHT RAIN IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP MAINLY AT RIC THIS
MORNING...WITH VCSH WORDING AT SBY BY LATE MORNING. WENT AHEAD AND
LOWERED SBY TO IFR AFTER 18Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. BLENDED
CURRENT POPS WITH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE FOR STARTING TIMES OF PCPN.
CIGS AND VSBYS LOWER TO MVFR AND IN SOME CASES IFR DURING THE AFTN
EXCEPT AT ECG. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS FOR THIS TAF PERIOD AND
BEYOND APPEAR TO BE LINING UP FOR SBY WHERE NE WINDS WILL ALSO
BECOME GUSTY.

OUTLOOK...RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS
MONDAY INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY (02-06Z/TUESDAY) AND
CONTINUES TROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES AT
SBY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WHERE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALLIS
CURRENTLY FORECAST. ELSEWHERE, A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED AT RIC/PHF/ORF WITH ONLY A TRACE AMTS OF SNOW EXPECTED AT
ECG. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE AFTN AND THROUGH THE
EVENING AT SBY AND WL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT MON ESPECIALLY DURING
PERIODS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW. IFR CONDS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT AT PHF/ORF/ECG, MAINLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AND
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

DRY AND MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR PCPN LATE IN THE WEEK MAINLY ON THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 11AM...HEADLINES NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THIS MORNING.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING THIS MORNING
OFF THE ERN NC COAST. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS RAMP UP THRU THE
AFTERNOON...FIRST ACROSS THE NRN BAY AND COASTAL ZONES...THEN SWD TO
ALL WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS IN THE NRN COASTAL ZONES
ALREADY UP TO 6 FT THANKS TO NE WINDS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
THRU THE DAY. PLEASE REFER TO PREV DISCUSSION FOR MORE INFO.

PREV DISCUSSION...
GALE WATCH HEADLINE HAS BEEN CONVERTED TO SMALL CRAFT ADVY THROUGH
WED, WITH GALE WARNING REMAINING IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. E-SE FLOW OVER THE WATERS WILL BACK TO THE E-NE EARLY THIS
MORNING AND EVENTUALITY TO THE NW LATER TODAY. SFC LOW WILL
REDEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA CST LATE TODAY, AND WILL INTENSIFY AS
IT SLOWLY LIFTS NE INTO TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR GALES
CONTINUES OVER NORTHERN ZONES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RAPIDLY
DEEPENING SFC LOW. SCA`S OVER REMAINDER OF THE WATERS AS FLOW
BECOMES NW AND INCREASES TO 20-25KT. RAPID RAMP UP OF WINDS WILL
QUICKLY BUILD SEAS TO 6-9 FT SOUTH AND 8-10 FT NORTH, W/ AT LEAST
12 FT OUT 20NM OVR NRN CSTL WATERS. WAVES IN THE CHES BAY UP TO
5-6 FT LATE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING. NW FLOW AND LOW END SCA CONDS
LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO WED MORNING AS SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN
FM THE W. SUB-SCA CONDS THEN FOR WED NIGHT/THU.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT NIGHT/TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF STRONG NLY
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 1 TO
1.5 FT...POSSIBLY HIGHER...DURING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLES. SITES IN THE LOWER BAY WILL REACH
HIGHEST ASTRO TIDE WITH WATER LEVELS APPROACHING MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS AT SEWELLS POINT TONIGHT. FOR OCEAN CITY...MINOR
FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH NEW GUIDANCE INDICATING AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR MODERATE. HV GONE AHEAD WITH COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR
WORCESTER COUNTY INVOF OCEAN CITY FOR TNGT. THIS WILL GIVE THE DAY
CREW ONE MORE OPPORTUNITY TO PERUSE LATEST GUIDANCE AND EITHER GO
WITH ADVY OR UPGRADE TO WARNING LATER TODAY. ANOTHER PERIOD OF
HIGH ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOMALIES DROP
OFF TUE NGT/WED AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR MDZ021>025.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR MDZ024-025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ080-081-087>090-092-093.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ048-049-061-062-068-069.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     VAZ091-094>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>634-
     654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...MAS/TMG
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS61 KLWX 261537 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1037 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTH TODAY. THE LOW WILL RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OFF TO OUR NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM SWINGS THROUGH THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO HEADLINE CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE. WE ARE NOW HEADING INTO THE
TRANSITION PHASE OF THIS COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM. PLENTY OF DYNAMIC
FORCES AT WORK THE ATMOS FROM THE OHIO VLY...TO THE SRN ATLC
STATES...THEN BACK UP ACROSS THE ERN SEABOARD. ONE ALREADY POTENT
UPPER VORT THAT INITIALLY CAME DOWN THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BE
GRADUALLY DISSIPATING OVER THE APLCNS AS THE COASTAL PORTION OF
THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES. IN BETWEEN THIS OCCURRENCE LIES THE
MID-ATLC REGION. AFTER A VERY SLOW AND STEADY TRANSITION OF
MORNING RAINS OVER TO SNOW FROM NORTH-TO-SOUTH...THE FORCING FOR
THE ADDITIONAL AND FUTURE SNOW BANDS WILL BE OF A SCATTERED AND
INTERMITTENT NATURE. POCKETS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL
DEVELOP INTO THE AFTN HRS...BUT IN VERY LOCALIZED AND SHORT-LIVED
AMOUNTS.

COMPLEX RAIN/SNOW LINE STILL EXISTS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF
DC...INCHING OVER INTO PARTS OF THE NRN VA PIEDMONT...TOWARD KCHO
AND THE I-64 CORRIDOR. AS THE COASTAL STORM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL CONTINUE ADVECTING IN WARMER AIR TO THE SOUTH AND COLDER AIR
TO THE NORTH. THE BATTLE BETWEEN THESE AREAS REMAINS CENTERED OVER
SE MD. THE BATTLE WILL SHIFT SWD OVER TIME INTO THE AFTN HRS AND
PTYPES WILL BECOME LESS OF AN ISSUE W/ ALL SNOW OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION HEADING INTO THE LATE EVE HRS. TEMPERATURES AT THAT POINT
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW AND THE HEAVIER WET FLAKES WILL
LIKELY CAUSE TRAVEL DISRUPTION THIS EVENING.

ONCE THE COASTAL DEVELOPS IT WILL INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AND PULL AWAY
FROM THE REGION TONIGHT. EARLIER INDICATION OF MORE SIGNIFICANT WRAP
AROUND SNOWFALL ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR DOES NOT APPEAR
AS SIGNIFICANT. THREAT FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOW HAS DIMINISHED. HAVE
EXPANDED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES EAST THROUGH THE I-95 CORRIDOR
AND ALSO EXPANDED FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY. IMPACTS TO THIS
EVENING COMMUTE AND SOME INTO THE TUESDAY AM COMMUTE CAN BE
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
EARLY SNOW WILL PERSIST MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS AND SOME
UPSLOPE OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. THE COASTAL LOW WILL PULL AWAY
TO THE NORTH AND SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END DURING THE DAY. COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE 20S
OUT WEST WITH 30S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DROP WIND CHILLS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS OUT WEST TO THE
LOWER 20S EAST. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TUESDAY EVENING WILL
HEAD TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. A NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL
USHER IN DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS. A FEW UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT...BUT SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY...BRINGING DRY AND
COLD CONDITIONS. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A PERIOD OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH
THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY WITH DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS.
A STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND. WINTRY
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE. TIMING AND DETAILS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR TO IFR TO PERSIST MUCH OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH SNOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER AND RAIN MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO SNOW FROM BWI
TO MTN TO IAD TO DCA THROUGH THE DAY. A STEADY LIGHT SNOW IS
EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING. THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END
OVERNIGHT OR TUESDAY AM.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING
THIS TIME. A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW TO THE
TERMINALS LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE THRU THE DAYTIME HRS...W/ INCREASING WINDS
ON THE WATERS ALONG WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENTUALLY CHANGING
TO SNOW LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS COASTAL LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY DIMINISH LATE TUESDAY
OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE
WATERS DURING THIS TIME. A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THURSDAY
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ004>006-
     011-013-014-503>508.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ003-501-
     502.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR MDZ016>018.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ025>027-
     029>031-039-040-051>054-501>508.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ028.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ037-038-050-055>057.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ505-506.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ050>053-
     055-501>504.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...KLW/BJL









000
FXUS61 KLWX 261537 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1037 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTH TODAY. THE LOW WILL RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OFF TO OUR NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM SWINGS THROUGH THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO HEADLINE CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE. WE ARE NOW HEADING INTO THE
TRANSITION PHASE OF THIS COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM. PLENTY OF DYNAMIC
FORCES AT WORK THE ATMOS FROM THE OHIO VLY...TO THE SRN ATLC
STATES...THEN BACK UP ACROSS THE ERN SEABOARD. ONE ALREADY POTENT
UPPER VORT THAT INITIALLY CAME DOWN THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BE
GRADUALLY DISSIPATING OVER THE APLCNS AS THE COASTAL PORTION OF
THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES. IN BETWEEN THIS OCCURRENCE LIES THE
MID-ATLC REGION. AFTER A VERY SLOW AND STEADY TRANSITION OF
MORNING RAINS OVER TO SNOW FROM NORTH-TO-SOUTH...THE FORCING FOR
THE ADDITIONAL AND FUTURE SNOW BANDS WILL BE OF A SCATTERED AND
INTERMITTENT NATURE. POCKETS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL
DEVELOP INTO THE AFTN HRS...BUT IN VERY LOCALIZED AND SHORT-LIVED
AMOUNTS.

COMPLEX RAIN/SNOW LINE STILL EXISTS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF
DC...INCHING OVER INTO PARTS OF THE NRN VA PIEDMONT...TOWARD KCHO
AND THE I-64 CORRIDOR. AS THE COASTAL STORM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL CONTINUE ADVECTING IN WARMER AIR TO THE SOUTH AND COLDER AIR
TO THE NORTH. THE BATTLE BETWEEN THESE AREAS REMAINS CENTERED OVER
SE MD. THE BATTLE WILL SHIFT SWD OVER TIME INTO THE AFTN HRS AND
PTYPES WILL BECOME LESS OF AN ISSUE W/ ALL SNOW OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION HEADING INTO THE LATE EVE HRS. TEMPERATURES AT THAT POINT
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW AND THE HEAVIER WET FLAKES WILL
LIKELY CAUSE TRAVEL DISRUPTION THIS EVENING.

ONCE THE COASTAL DEVELOPS IT WILL INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AND PULL AWAY
FROM THE REGION TONIGHT. EARLIER INDICATION OF MORE SIGNIFICANT WRAP
AROUND SNOWFALL ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR DOES NOT APPEAR
AS SIGNIFICANT. THREAT FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOW HAS DIMINISHED. HAVE
EXPANDED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES EAST THROUGH THE I-95 CORRIDOR
AND ALSO EXPANDED FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY. IMPACTS TO THIS
EVENING COMMUTE AND SOME INTO THE TUESDAY AM COMMUTE CAN BE
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
EARLY SNOW WILL PERSIST MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS AND SOME
UPSLOPE OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. THE COASTAL LOW WILL PULL AWAY
TO THE NORTH AND SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END DURING THE DAY. COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE 20S
OUT WEST WITH 30S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DROP WIND CHILLS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS OUT WEST TO THE
LOWER 20S EAST. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TUESDAY EVENING WILL
HEAD TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. A NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL
USHER IN DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS. A FEW UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT...BUT SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY...BRINGING DRY AND
COLD CONDITIONS. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A PERIOD OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH
THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY WITH DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS.
A STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND. WINTRY
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE. TIMING AND DETAILS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR TO IFR TO PERSIST MUCH OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH SNOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER AND RAIN MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO SNOW FROM BWI
TO MTN TO IAD TO DCA THROUGH THE DAY. A STEADY LIGHT SNOW IS
EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING. THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END
OVERNIGHT OR TUESDAY AM.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING
THIS TIME. A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW TO THE
TERMINALS LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE THRU THE DAYTIME HRS...W/ INCREASING WINDS
ON THE WATERS ALONG WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENTUALLY CHANGING
TO SNOW LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS COASTAL LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY DIMINISH LATE TUESDAY
OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE
WATERS DURING THIS TIME. A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THURSDAY
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ004>006-
     011-013-014-503>508.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ003-501-
     502.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR MDZ016>018.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ025>027-
     029>031-039-040-051>054-501>508.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ028.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ037-038-050-055>057.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ505-506.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ050>053-
     055-501>504.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...KLW/BJL









000
FXUS61 KLWX 261537 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1037 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTH TODAY. THE LOW WILL RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OFF TO OUR NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM SWINGS THROUGH THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO HEADLINE CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE. WE ARE NOW HEADING INTO THE
TRANSITION PHASE OF THIS COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM. PLENTY OF DYNAMIC
FORCES AT WORK THE ATMOS FROM THE OHIO VLY...TO THE SRN ATLC
STATES...THEN BACK UP ACROSS THE ERN SEABOARD. ONE ALREADY POTENT
UPPER VORT THAT INITIALLY CAME DOWN THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BE
GRADUALLY DISSIPATING OVER THE APLCNS AS THE COASTAL PORTION OF
THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES. IN BETWEEN THIS OCCURRENCE LIES THE
MID-ATLC REGION. AFTER A VERY SLOW AND STEADY TRANSITION OF
MORNING RAINS OVER TO SNOW FROM NORTH-TO-SOUTH...THE FORCING FOR
THE ADDITIONAL AND FUTURE SNOW BANDS WILL BE OF A SCATTERED AND
INTERMITTENT NATURE. POCKETS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL
DEVELOP INTO THE AFTN HRS...BUT IN VERY LOCALIZED AND SHORT-LIVED
AMOUNTS.

COMPLEX RAIN/SNOW LINE STILL EXISTS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF
DC...INCHING OVER INTO PARTS OF THE NRN VA PIEDMONT...TOWARD KCHO
AND THE I-64 CORRIDOR. AS THE COASTAL STORM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL CONTINUE ADVECTING IN WARMER AIR TO THE SOUTH AND COLDER AIR
TO THE NORTH. THE BATTLE BETWEEN THESE AREAS REMAINS CENTERED OVER
SE MD. THE BATTLE WILL SHIFT SWD OVER TIME INTO THE AFTN HRS AND
PTYPES WILL BECOME LESS OF AN ISSUE W/ ALL SNOW OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION HEADING INTO THE LATE EVE HRS. TEMPERATURES AT THAT POINT
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW AND THE HEAVIER WET FLAKES WILL
LIKELY CAUSE TRAVEL DISRUPTION THIS EVENING.

ONCE THE COASTAL DEVELOPS IT WILL INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AND PULL AWAY
FROM THE REGION TONIGHT. EARLIER INDICATION OF MORE SIGNIFICANT WRAP
AROUND SNOWFALL ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR DOES NOT APPEAR
AS SIGNIFICANT. THREAT FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOW HAS DIMINISHED. HAVE
EXPANDED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES EAST THROUGH THE I-95 CORRIDOR
AND ALSO EXPANDED FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY. IMPACTS TO THIS
EVENING COMMUTE AND SOME INTO THE TUESDAY AM COMMUTE CAN BE
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
EARLY SNOW WILL PERSIST MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS AND SOME
UPSLOPE OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. THE COASTAL LOW WILL PULL AWAY
TO THE NORTH AND SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END DURING THE DAY. COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE 20S
OUT WEST WITH 30S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DROP WIND CHILLS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS OUT WEST TO THE
LOWER 20S EAST. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TUESDAY EVENING WILL
HEAD TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. A NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL
USHER IN DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS. A FEW UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT...BUT SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY...BRINGING DRY AND
COLD CONDITIONS. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A PERIOD OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH
THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY WITH DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS.
A STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND. WINTRY
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE. TIMING AND DETAILS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR TO IFR TO PERSIST MUCH OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH SNOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER AND RAIN MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO SNOW FROM BWI
TO MTN TO IAD TO DCA THROUGH THE DAY. A STEADY LIGHT SNOW IS
EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING. THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END
OVERNIGHT OR TUESDAY AM.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING
THIS TIME. A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW TO THE
TERMINALS LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE THRU THE DAYTIME HRS...W/ INCREASING WINDS
ON THE WATERS ALONG WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENTUALLY CHANGING
TO SNOW LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS COASTAL LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY DIMINISH LATE TUESDAY
OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE
WATERS DURING THIS TIME. A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THURSDAY
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ004>006-
     011-013-014-503>508.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ003-501-
     502.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR MDZ016>018.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ025>027-
     029>031-039-040-051>054-501>508.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ028.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ037-038-050-055>057.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ505-506.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ050>053-
     055-501>504.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...KLW/BJL









000
FXUS61 KLWX 261537 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1037 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTH TODAY. THE LOW WILL RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OFF TO OUR NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM SWINGS THROUGH THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO HEADLINE CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE. WE ARE NOW HEADING INTO THE
TRANSITION PHASE OF THIS COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM. PLENTY OF DYNAMIC
FORCES AT WORK THE ATMOS FROM THE OHIO VLY...TO THE SRN ATLC
STATES...THEN BACK UP ACROSS THE ERN SEABOARD. ONE ALREADY POTENT
UPPER VORT THAT INITIALLY CAME DOWN THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BE
GRADUALLY DISSIPATING OVER THE APLCNS AS THE COASTAL PORTION OF
THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES. IN BETWEEN THIS OCCURRENCE LIES THE
MID-ATLC REGION. AFTER A VERY SLOW AND STEADY TRANSITION OF
MORNING RAINS OVER TO SNOW FROM NORTH-TO-SOUTH...THE FORCING FOR
THE ADDITIONAL AND FUTURE SNOW BANDS WILL BE OF A SCATTERED AND
INTERMITTENT NATURE. POCKETS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL
DEVELOP INTO THE AFTN HRS...BUT IN VERY LOCALIZED AND SHORT-LIVED
AMOUNTS.

COMPLEX RAIN/SNOW LINE STILL EXISTS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF
DC...INCHING OVER INTO PARTS OF THE NRN VA PIEDMONT...TOWARD KCHO
AND THE I-64 CORRIDOR. AS THE COASTAL STORM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL CONTINUE ADVECTING IN WARMER AIR TO THE SOUTH AND COLDER AIR
TO THE NORTH. THE BATTLE BETWEEN THESE AREAS REMAINS CENTERED OVER
SE MD. THE BATTLE WILL SHIFT SWD OVER TIME INTO THE AFTN HRS AND
PTYPES WILL BECOME LESS OF AN ISSUE W/ ALL SNOW OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION HEADING INTO THE LATE EVE HRS. TEMPERATURES AT THAT POINT
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW AND THE HEAVIER WET FLAKES WILL
LIKELY CAUSE TRAVEL DISRUPTION THIS EVENING.

ONCE THE COASTAL DEVELOPS IT WILL INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AND PULL AWAY
FROM THE REGION TONIGHT. EARLIER INDICATION OF MORE SIGNIFICANT WRAP
AROUND SNOWFALL ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR DOES NOT APPEAR
AS SIGNIFICANT. THREAT FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOW HAS DIMINISHED. HAVE
EXPANDED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES EAST THROUGH THE I-95 CORRIDOR
AND ALSO EXPANDED FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY. IMPACTS TO THIS
EVENING COMMUTE AND SOME INTO THE TUESDAY AM COMMUTE CAN BE
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
EARLY SNOW WILL PERSIST MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS AND SOME
UPSLOPE OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. THE COASTAL LOW WILL PULL AWAY
TO THE NORTH AND SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END DURING THE DAY. COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE 20S
OUT WEST WITH 30S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DROP WIND CHILLS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS OUT WEST TO THE
LOWER 20S EAST. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TUESDAY EVENING WILL
HEAD TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. A NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL
USHER IN DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS. A FEW UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT...BUT SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY...BRINGING DRY AND
COLD CONDITIONS. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A PERIOD OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH
THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY WITH DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS.
A STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND. WINTRY
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE. TIMING AND DETAILS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR TO IFR TO PERSIST MUCH OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH SNOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER AND RAIN MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO SNOW FROM BWI
TO MTN TO IAD TO DCA THROUGH THE DAY. A STEADY LIGHT SNOW IS
EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING. THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END
OVERNIGHT OR TUESDAY AM.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING
THIS TIME. A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW TO THE
TERMINALS LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE THRU THE DAYTIME HRS...W/ INCREASING WINDS
ON THE WATERS ALONG WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENTUALLY CHANGING
TO SNOW LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS COASTAL LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY DIMINISH LATE TUESDAY
OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE
WATERS DURING THIS TIME. A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THURSDAY
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ004>006-
     011-013-014-503>508.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ003-501-
     502.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR MDZ016>018.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ025>027-
     029>031-039-040-051>054-501>508.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ028.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ037-038-050-055>057.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ505-506.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ050>053-
     055-501>504.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...KLW/BJL









000
FXUS61 KRNK 261246
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
746 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...
ON ITS WAY TO THE COAST BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING PERIODS OF SNOW AND RAIN TO MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY INTO
MONDAY. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD FOLLOW THIS FEATURE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 AM EST MONDAY...

THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING. ALREADY OBSERVING
WINDS SHIFTING WESTERLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 77...WHILE LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER THE PIEDMONT. LOOKING AT A WIDE
RANGE OF TEMPERATURES...FROM THE LOW 40S ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA HIGHLANDS.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
INCREASING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW...WITH SNOW FALLING ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460...AND PERHAPS A RAIN SNOW
MIX OR RAIN FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. SPOTTER REPORTS FROM THE
NORTH CAROLINA HIGHLANDS INDICATE A DUSTING OF SNOW AT VARIOUS
LOCATIONS...SOME OF WHICH IS STICKING TO ROADWAY SURFACES.

LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS QUICKLY EAST TODAY...APPROACHING THE COAST
BY AROUND NOON. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW DURING THE MORNING...
EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY...DRAWING COLDER AIR INTO THE
AREA AND CAPPING HEATING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THE WIND SHIFT WILL TAKE
UNTIL MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...MAKING MORE TIME FOR
WARMING...WHICH WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE
LOW TO MID 40S.

UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN
RIDGES DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND THE EVENING AS THE NORTHWEST FLOW
SWITCHES TO THE IDEAL DIRECTION TO DRAW MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES FOR A FEW HOURS. HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR ALONG
THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR...WHERE 1 TO 4 INCHES ACCUMULATION WILL
BE POSSIBLE. AS SUCH...HAVE EXTENDED THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING IN THIS AREA TO INCLUDE THE
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE ALONG THE
WEST FACING RIDGES. BELIEVE THAT MOST SNOWFALL WILL ACCUMULATE ON
MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES DUE TO THE RECENT MILD WEATHER...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ON ROADWAY SURFACES/SLICK
CONDITIONS IN THE COLDER AIR ALONG THE RIDGE TOPS. LESSER SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE RIDGES
SOUTHWARD IN NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA.

SNOWFALL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BEGINNING LATE EVENING AS MOISTURE
ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES DECREASES. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO GUSTY
WINDS THAT WILL AFFECT THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEEPEN...AND HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT...HOWEVER WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE GUSTS OCCASIONALLY EXCEED 40 MPH...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA HIGHLANDS...GRAYSON
HIGHLANDS AND THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS.

COLDER AIR BUILDING IN WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO RANGE
FROM THE MID TEENS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...TO
NEAR 30 OVER THE VIRGINIA SOUTHSIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM EST MONDAY...

A COASTAL LOW TRACKING NORTH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
BECOME A STRONG NOR-EASTER BY DAYS END TUESDAY. THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE
BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL COVER A GOOD CHUCK OF REAL ESTATE FROM
THE GREAT LAKES...OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...AND THE CAROLINAS AND
POINTS NORTHEAST. THE MIDDLE RINGS OF THIS LOW WILL SEND A SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. THESE WAVES WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE COASTAL PIEDMONT...BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO AREAS EAST OF
HWY 29 EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS CONFIDED TO GRASSY AND/OR ELEVATED
SURFACES. THE BULK OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE FOCUSED ON NORTHERN
SLOPES AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. SHORT WAVES ON THE OUTER BANDS OF THE LOW COULD
DEPOSIT 1-2 INCHES ON THESE SLOPES NORTH OF I64...TO ABOUT AN INCH
TOWARDS THE NORTH CAROLINA HIGH COUNTY. THESE AMOUNTS ARE
QUESTIONABLE WITH THE FLOW BEING MORE NORTHERLY THAN NORTHWESTERLY
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE WETTEST OF THE SNOW WILL OCCUR MONDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO GET DRIER WITH EACH PASSING WAVE. THE DRYNESS
OF THE SNOW COULD LEAD TO HIGHER AMOUNTS BUT SHOULD NOT EXCEED 3
INCHES DURING THE UPSLOPE PORTION OF THIS EVENT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT.

WITH THE NOR-EASTER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE MID WEST...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP BREEZY AND GUSTY
CONDITIONS IN THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. PRESSURE RISES
DO NOT APPEAR TO BE TO STRONG ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERLY FLOW AND A 30-
40KT JET. THESE WINDS WILL RELAX OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
WEST TRACKS OVER THE REGION STARTING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO PEAK EARLY IN THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS ACROSS THE WEST WILL RANGE IN
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE COULD WARM TO NEAR
40F. IF WINDS COULD DECOUPLE BY SUNRISE...WEDNESDAY MORNINGS LOWS
WILL DIP INTO THE TEENS IN THE WEST TO MID 20S EAST. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE COAST ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO TRACK OVER THE AREA.
UNFORTUNATELY...WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL FALL SHY OF NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST SATURDAY...

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE GOING BACK TO SPLIT FLOW FOR THE
EXTENDED WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA DOMINATING THE
SOUTHERN STREAM...AND A WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROF FOR THE NORTHERN
STREAM. GFS IS LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WHICH GIVES
IT A WARMER LOOK THAN THE ECMWF.

WE WILL SEE A NORTHERN STREAM LOW MOVE BY TO OUR NORTH ON THURSDAY
WHICH WILL BRING US A CHANCE OF LIGHT SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION WHICH
LOOKS TO BE MIX TO RAIN FOR THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN SWING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING WHICH SETS THE STAGE
FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE WINDS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LOOK QUITE BLUSTERY RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND FORMS A
BIT OF A WEDGE WITH QUIET WEATHER FOR FOR SATURDAY. EURO WANTS TO
BRING A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY.
GFS IS NOT ON BOARD WITH THIS AND ENSEMBLES WERE NOT INDICATING A
MAJOR ARCTIC OUTBREAK. WILL BE LEANING MORE TOWARD THE GFS/ENSEMBLE
SOLUTION AND KEEP TEMPS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT A GOOD 20F WARMER
THAN THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 715 AM EST MONDAY...

A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
THIS MORNING. WINDS IN THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING WESTERLY WEST OF
INTERSTATE 77...WITH LIGHT EAST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. MOST CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION ARE VFR..IN THE 3KFT
TO 6KFT RANGE...HOWEVER BANDS OF SNOW/RAIN PASSING ACROSS NORTHERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA ARE MAKING FOR OCCASIONAL
MVFR VISIBILITIES.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST THIS MORNING...REACHING THE
COAST BY AROUND 18Z. BANDS OF PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOW
ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE ELEVATION DEPENDENT
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHER RIDGES RECEIVING ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL...WHILE THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND THE PIEDMONT CAN EXPECT
A RAIN SNOW MIX WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW...EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY...
WITH WINDS BECOMING GUSTY BY 00Z AT ALL TAF SITES AS THE LOW
DEEPENS OFFSHORE. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO DRAG COLDER AIR
INTO THE REGION...CAUSING RAIN TO INCREASINGLY CHANGE OVER TO
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST. SNOW BANDS DURING THE
EVENING WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES LOCALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
RIDGES...KBLF/KLWB...TO 2SM TO 4SM AT TIMES. SNOW SHOWERS MAY
REACH AS FAR EAST AS KBCB/KROA CAUSING REDUCED VISIBILITIES...BUT
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...CAN ALSO EXPECT
CEILINGS TO LOWER TO MVFR/IFR AREAWIDE.

CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE MONDAY NIGHT FROM EAST TO WEST IN
THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW...BUT EXPECT LOW MVFR/IFR TO REMAIN THROUGH THE
NIGHT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ON TUESDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
ACROSS KBLF/KLWB AND PERHAPS EVEN KBCB DUE TO SCATTERED UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS. EASTERN TAF LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR ON TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE A QUIET DAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TAF LOCATIONS. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM
ARRIVES ON THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND
VSBYS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
HINTON ALL HAZARDS RADIO...162.425MHZ IS OFF THE AIR. THERE IS NO
ESTIMATE FOR RETURN TO SERVICE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ019-020-024.
NC...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...NF
EQUIPMENT...AMS



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 261224
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
724 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
WEAKEN THIS MORNING...WHILE A NEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW WILL THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NORTH NORTHEAST
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...AREA OF RAIN WAS MOVNG INTO WRN AND NRN
COUNTIES IN ADVANCE OF SFC LO OVR SW VA AND UPR TROF PUSHING ACRS
THE MTNS. THE LO WILL WEAKEN THIS MORNG...WHILE A NEW LO PRES
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NC CST BY EARLY THIS AFTN. THAT LO
WILL THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLC CST INTO THIS EVENG.
COMBINATION OF THE SFC LO RE-DEVELOPMENT AND UPR TROF SWINGING
ACRS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN CHCS FOR RAIN TODAY INTO THIS
EVENG. HIGHEST POPS (60-80%) WILL BE OVR THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA
WHERE BEST LIFT WILL BE...WITH 30-40% POPS OVR THE SRN HALF. TEMPS
WILL WARM A BIT INTO EARLY AFTN DESPITE CLOUD COVER...POSSIBLE
PCPN AS WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FM THE E. HI TEMPS WILL RANGE FM
THE LWR 40S NW TO THE MID 50S OVR NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WILL FAVOR A BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM/ECMWF FOR THIS PERIOD. THE MAIN
EVENT FOR OUR AREA BEGINS TNGT INTO TUE MORNG...AS COLDER AIR
PLUNGES S IN RESPONSE TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SFC LO OFF
THE MID ATLC AND SRN NEW ENGLAND CST. STILL MAINLY RAIN ACRS THE
SRN 2/3 OF THE CWA IN THE EVENING...THEN TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW
BETWEEN 00Z-09Z FM NW TO SE. DURING THIS TIME...BEST LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS
WILL RESIDE OFF THE CST OR NE OF OUR CWA. HOWEVER...WILL BE
RELYING ON DEFORMATION ZONE AND POSSIBLE BANDING DEVELOPMENT FM
THE DELMARVA TO LONG ISLAND TO "WRAP AROUND" AND DROP S OVR THE
LWR MD ERN SHR...AND PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND ERN VA FM THIS EVENG
THRU TUE MORNG. THUS...BASED ON THE ABOVE REASONING AND WPC
FCSTS...HAVE ISSUED WINTER WX ADVISORIES FOR MOST OF THE CWA WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SW COUNTIES OF SCNTRL VA AND ALL OF NE NC
COUNTIES. GENERALLY...ADVSYS WILL RUN FM 8PM-1AM THIS EVENG/TNGT
TO 8AM-NOON TUE. ANY CHANGE IN THE POSITION OF THE BANDING CAN HAVE
DRASTIC EFFECTS ON SNOW AMOUNTS...SO UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS
RATHER HIGH. FOR NOW...HAVE FORECAST 2-4" OF SNOW ON THE LWR MD
ERN SHR...WITH 1-3" ACRS NRN NECK/VA ERN SHR...1-2" ACRS THE ERN
VA PIEDMONT/CNTRL VA INCLUDING RIC METRO AND TRI-CITIES...THEN
TAPERED TO 1" OR LESS OVR SCNTRL VA AND SE VA INCLUDING HAMPTON
RDS AND THE TIDEWATER AREA.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF AND END LATE TUE MORNG/AFTN...BUT
IF 00Z ECMWF IS CORRECT...THIS WOULD BE SLOWER AND ADDITIONAL
SNOW AMOUNTS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED...ESPLY OVR THE LWR MD ERN SHR.
LOWS TNGT IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S...HIGHS ON TUE RANGING FM THE
MID 30S TO LWR 40S. CLEARING/COLD TUE NGT/WED WITH LOWS IN THE
20S AND HIGHS ON WED RANGING FM THE LWR/MID 40S SW TO THE LWR/MID
30S NE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH DRY WX MOST
DAYS. FOR WED NIGHT...SFC HI PRES BLDS OVR THE MID ATLANTIC AND SE
STATES AS THE NEXT LO PRES SYSTM APPROACHES FM THE W. WITH A MSTLY
CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S IN MOST
SPOTS. LO PRES AND AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL VORT MAX WILL BRING
PRECIP (PLAIN RAIN) INTO THE AREA STARTING LATE THU. FAVORED THE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION...WITH A 30% CHANCE OF PRECIP (RA/SN
NORTH AND RA SOUTH) THU NIGHT...WITH LO TEMPS IN THE LO TO MID 30S.
CONDS THEN DRY OUT INTO FRI AND SAT AS SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W.
EXPECT A PRTLY CLOUDY SKY BOTH DAYS WITH NW WINDS AND HI TEMPS
FALLING FM THE 40S ON FRI TO THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 724 AM EST...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS
DETERIORATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUD BASES WILL LOWER TO MVFR
FIRST OVER RIC/SBY THROUGH 15Z...THEN BY LATE MORNING/AFTN OVER
PHF/ORF/ECG. LIGHT RAIN IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP MAINLY AT RIC THIS
MORNING...WITH VCSH WORDING AT SBY BY LATE MORNING. WENT AHEAD AND
LOWERED SBY TO IFR AFTER 18Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. BLENDED
CURRENT POPS WITH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE FOR STARTING TIMES OF PCPN.
CIGS AND VSBYS LOWER TO MVFR AND IN SOME CASES IFR DURING THE AFTN
EXCEPT AT ECG. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS FOR THIS TAF PERIOD AND
BEYOND APPEAR TO BE LINING UP FOR SBY WHERE NE WINDS WILL ALSO
BECOME GUSTY.

OUTLOOK...RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS
MONDAY INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY (02-06Z/TUESDAY) AND
CONTINUES TROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES AT
SBY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WHERE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALLIS
CURRENTLY FORECAST. ELSEWHERE, A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED AT RIC/PHF/ORF WITH ONLY A TRACE AMTS OF SNOW EXPECTED AT
ECG. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE AFTN AND THROUGH THE
EVENING AT SBY AND WL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT MON ESPECIALLY DURING
PERIODS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW. IFR CONDS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT AT PHF/ORF/ECG, MAINLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AND
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

DRY AND MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR PCPN LATE IN THE WEEK MAINLY ON THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WATCH HEADLINE HAS BEEN CONVERTED TO SMALL CARFT ADVY THROUGH
WED, WITH GALE WARNING REMAINING IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. E-SE FLOW OVER THE WATERS WILL BACK TO THE E-NE EARLY THIS
MORNING AND EVENUALLT TO THE NW LATER TODAY. SFC LOW WILL
REDEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA CST LATE TODAY, AND WILL INTENSIFY AS
IT SLOWLY LIFTS NE INTO TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR GALES
CONTINUES OVER NORTHERN ZONES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RAPIDLY
DEEPENING SFC LOW. SCA`S OVER REMAINDR OF THE WATERS AS FLOW
BECOMES NW AND INCREASES TO 20-25KT. RAPID RAMP UP OF WINDS WILL
QUICKLY BUILD SEAS TO 6-9 FT SOUTH AND 8-10 FT NORTH, W/ AT LEAST
12 FT OUT 20NM OVR NRN CSTL WATERS. WAVES IN THE CHES BAY UP TO
5-6 FT LATE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING. NW FLOW AND LOW END SCA CONDS
LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO WED MORNING AS SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN
FM THE W. SUB-SCA CONDS THEN FOR WED NIGHT/THU.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT NIGHT/TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF STRONG NLY
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 1 TO
1.5 FT...POSSIBLY HIGHER...DURING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLES. SITES IN THE LOWER BAY WILL REACH
HIGHEST ASTRO TIDE WITH WATER LEVELS APPROACHING MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS AT SEWELLS POINT TONIGHT. FOR OCEAN CITY...MINOR
FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH NEW GUIDANCE INDICATING AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR MODERATE. HV GONE AHEAD WITH COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR
WORCESTER COUNTY INVOF OCEAN CITY FOR TNGT. THIS WILL GIVE THE DAY
CREW ONE MORE OPPORTUNITY TO PERUSE LATEST GUIDANCE AND EITHER GO
WITH ADVY OR UPGRADE TO WARNING LATER TODAY. ANOTHER PERIOD OF
HIGH ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOMALIES DROP
OFF TUE NGT/WED AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR MDZ021>025.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
     MDZ024-025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ080-081-087>090-092-093.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ048-049-061-062-068-069.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     VAZ091-094>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>634-654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 261224
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
724 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
WEAKEN THIS MORNING...WHILE A NEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW WILL THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NORTH NORTHEAST
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...AREA OF RAIN WAS MOVNG INTO WRN AND NRN
COUNTIES IN ADVANCE OF SFC LO OVR SW VA AND UPR TROF PUSHING ACRS
THE MTNS. THE LO WILL WEAKEN THIS MORNG...WHILE A NEW LO PRES
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NC CST BY EARLY THIS AFTN. THAT LO
WILL THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLC CST INTO THIS EVENG.
COMBINATION OF THE SFC LO RE-DEVELOPMENT AND UPR TROF SWINGING
ACRS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN CHCS FOR RAIN TODAY INTO THIS
EVENG. HIGHEST POPS (60-80%) WILL BE OVR THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA
WHERE BEST LIFT WILL BE...WITH 30-40% POPS OVR THE SRN HALF. TEMPS
WILL WARM A BIT INTO EARLY AFTN DESPITE CLOUD COVER...POSSIBLE
PCPN AS WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FM THE E. HI TEMPS WILL RANGE FM
THE LWR 40S NW TO THE MID 50S OVR NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WILL FAVOR A BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM/ECMWF FOR THIS PERIOD. THE MAIN
EVENT FOR OUR AREA BEGINS TNGT INTO TUE MORNG...AS COLDER AIR
PLUNGES S IN RESPONSE TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SFC LO OFF
THE MID ATLC AND SRN NEW ENGLAND CST. STILL MAINLY RAIN ACRS THE
SRN 2/3 OF THE CWA IN THE EVENING...THEN TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW
BETWEEN 00Z-09Z FM NW TO SE. DURING THIS TIME...BEST LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS
WILL RESIDE OFF THE CST OR NE OF OUR CWA. HOWEVER...WILL BE
RELYING ON DEFORMATION ZONE AND POSSIBLE BANDING DEVELOPMENT FM
THE DELMARVA TO LONG ISLAND TO "WRAP AROUND" AND DROP S OVR THE
LWR MD ERN SHR...AND PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND ERN VA FM THIS EVENG
THRU TUE MORNG. THUS...BASED ON THE ABOVE REASONING AND WPC
FCSTS...HAVE ISSUED WINTER WX ADVISORIES FOR MOST OF THE CWA WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SW COUNTIES OF SCNTRL VA AND ALL OF NE NC
COUNTIES. GENERALLY...ADVSYS WILL RUN FM 8PM-1AM THIS EVENG/TNGT
TO 8AM-NOON TUE. ANY CHANGE IN THE POSITION OF THE BANDING CAN HAVE
DRASTIC EFFECTS ON SNOW AMOUNTS...SO UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS
RATHER HIGH. FOR NOW...HAVE FORECAST 2-4" OF SNOW ON THE LWR MD
ERN SHR...WITH 1-3" ACRS NRN NECK/VA ERN SHR...1-2" ACRS THE ERN
VA PIEDMONT/CNTRL VA INCLUDING RIC METRO AND TRI-CITIES...THEN
TAPERED TO 1" OR LESS OVR SCNTRL VA AND SE VA INCLUDING HAMPTON
RDS AND THE TIDEWATER AREA.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF AND END LATE TUE MORNG/AFTN...BUT
IF 00Z ECMWF IS CORRECT...THIS WOULD BE SLOWER AND ADDITIONAL
SNOW AMOUNTS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED...ESPLY OVR THE LWR MD ERN SHR.
LOWS TNGT IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S...HIGHS ON TUE RANGING FM THE
MID 30S TO LWR 40S. CLEARING/COLD TUE NGT/WED WITH LOWS IN THE
20S AND HIGHS ON WED RANGING FM THE LWR/MID 40S SW TO THE LWR/MID
30S NE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH DRY WX MOST
DAYS. FOR WED NIGHT...SFC HI PRES BLDS OVR THE MID ATLANTIC AND SE
STATES AS THE NEXT LO PRES SYSTM APPROACHES FM THE W. WITH A MSTLY
CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S IN MOST
SPOTS. LO PRES AND AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL VORT MAX WILL BRING
PRECIP (PLAIN RAIN) INTO THE AREA STARTING LATE THU. FAVORED THE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION...WITH A 30% CHANCE OF PRECIP (RA/SN
NORTH AND RA SOUTH) THU NIGHT...WITH LO TEMPS IN THE LO TO MID 30S.
CONDS THEN DRY OUT INTO FRI AND SAT AS SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W.
EXPECT A PRTLY CLOUDY SKY BOTH DAYS WITH NW WINDS AND HI TEMPS
FALLING FM THE 40S ON FRI TO THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 724 AM EST...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS
DETERIORATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUD BASES WILL LOWER TO MVFR
FIRST OVER RIC/SBY THROUGH 15Z...THEN BY LATE MORNING/AFTN OVER
PHF/ORF/ECG. LIGHT RAIN IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP MAINLY AT RIC THIS
MORNING...WITH VCSH WORDING AT SBY BY LATE MORNING. WENT AHEAD AND
LOWERED SBY TO IFR AFTER 18Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. BLENDED
CURRENT POPS WITH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE FOR STARTING TIMES OF PCPN.
CIGS AND VSBYS LOWER TO MVFR AND IN SOME CASES IFR DURING THE AFTN
EXCEPT AT ECG. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS FOR THIS TAF PERIOD AND
BEYOND APPEAR TO BE LINING UP FOR SBY WHERE NE WINDS WILL ALSO
BECOME GUSTY.

OUTLOOK...RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS
MONDAY INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY (02-06Z/TUESDAY) AND
CONTINUES TROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES AT
SBY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WHERE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALLIS
CURRENTLY FORECAST. ELSEWHERE, A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED AT RIC/PHF/ORF WITH ONLY A TRACE AMTS OF SNOW EXPECTED AT
ECG. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE AFTN AND THROUGH THE
EVENING AT SBY AND WL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT MON ESPECIALLY DURING
PERIODS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW. IFR CONDS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT AT PHF/ORF/ECG, MAINLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AND
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

DRY AND MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR PCPN LATE IN THE WEEK MAINLY ON THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WATCH HEADLINE HAS BEEN CONVERTED TO SMALL CARFT ADVY THROUGH
WED, WITH GALE WARNING REMAINING IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. E-SE FLOW OVER THE WATERS WILL BACK TO THE E-NE EARLY THIS
MORNING AND EVENUALLT TO THE NW LATER TODAY. SFC LOW WILL
REDEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA CST LATE TODAY, AND WILL INTENSIFY AS
IT SLOWLY LIFTS NE INTO TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR GALES
CONTINUES OVER NORTHERN ZONES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RAPIDLY
DEEPENING SFC LOW. SCA`S OVER REMAINDR OF THE WATERS AS FLOW
BECOMES NW AND INCREASES TO 20-25KT. RAPID RAMP UP OF WINDS WILL
QUICKLY BUILD SEAS TO 6-9 FT SOUTH AND 8-10 FT NORTH, W/ AT LEAST
12 FT OUT 20NM OVR NRN CSTL WATERS. WAVES IN THE CHES BAY UP TO
5-6 FT LATE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING. NW FLOW AND LOW END SCA CONDS
LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO WED MORNING AS SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN
FM THE W. SUB-SCA CONDS THEN FOR WED NIGHT/THU.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT NIGHT/TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF STRONG NLY
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 1 TO
1.5 FT...POSSIBLY HIGHER...DURING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLES. SITES IN THE LOWER BAY WILL REACH
HIGHEST ASTRO TIDE WITH WATER LEVELS APPROACHING MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS AT SEWELLS POINT TONIGHT. FOR OCEAN CITY...MINOR
FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH NEW GUIDANCE INDICATING AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR MODERATE. HV GONE AHEAD WITH COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR
WORCESTER COUNTY INVOF OCEAN CITY FOR TNGT. THIS WILL GIVE THE DAY
CREW ONE MORE OPPORTUNITY TO PERUSE LATEST GUIDANCE AND EITHER GO
WITH ADVY OR UPGRADE TO WARNING LATER TODAY. ANOTHER PERIOD OF
HIGH ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOMALIES DROP
OFF TUE NGT/WED AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR MDZ021>025.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
     MDZ024-025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ080-081-087>090-092-093.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ048-049-061-062-068-069.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     VAZ091-094>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>634-654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 261224
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
724 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
WEAKEN THIS MORNING...WHILE A NEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW WILL THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NORTH NORTHEAST
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...AREA OF RAIN WAS MOVNG INTO WRN AND NRN
COUNTIES IN ADVANCE OF SFC LO OVR SW VA AND UPR TROF PUSHING ACRS
THE MTNS. THE LO WILL WEAKEN THIS MORNG...WHILE A NEW LO PRES
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NC CST BY EARLY THIS AFTN. THAT LO
WILL THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLC CST INTO THIS EVENG.
COMBINATION OF THE SFC LO RE-DEVELOPMENT AND UPR TROF SWINGING
ACRS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN CHCS FOR RAIN TODAY INTO THIS
EVENG. HIGHEST POPS (60-80%) WILL BE OVR THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA
WHERE BEST LIFT WILL BE...WITH 30-40% POPS OVR THE SRN HALF. TEMPS
WILL WARM A BIT INTO EARLY AFTN DESPITE CLOUD COVER...POSSIBLE
PCPN AS WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FM THE E. HI TEMPS WILL RANGE FM
THE LWR 40S NW TO THE MID 50S OVR NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WILL FAVOR A BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM/ECMWF FOR THIS PERIOD. THE MAIN
EVENT FOR OUR AREA BEGINS TNGT INTO TUE MORNG...AS COLDER AIR
PLUNGES S IN RESPONSE TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SFC LO OFF
THE MID ATLC AND SRN NEW ENGLAND CST. STILL MAINLY RAIN ACRS THE
SRN 2/3 OF THE CWA IN THE EVENING...THEN TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW
BETWEEN 00Z-09Z FM NW TO SE. DURING THIS TIME...BEST LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS
WILL RESIDE OFF THE CST OR NE OF OUR CWA. HOWEVER...WILL BE
RELYING ON DEFORMATION ZONE AND POSSIBLE BANDING DEVELOPMENT FM
THE DELMARVA TO LONG ISLAND TO "WRAP AROUND" AND DROP S OVR THE
LWR MD ERN SHR...AND PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND ERN VA FM THIS EVENG
THRU TUE MORNG. THUS...BASED ON THE ABOVE REASONING AND WPC
FCSTS...HAVE ISSUED WINTER WX ADVISORIES FOR MOST OF THE CWA WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SW COUNTIES OF SCNTRL VA AND ALL OF NE NC
COUNTIES. GENERALLY...ADVSYS WILL RUN FM 8PM-1AM THIS EVENG/TNGT
TO 8AM-NOON TUE. ANY CHANGE IN THE POSITION OF THE BANDING CAN HAVE
DRASTIC EFFECTS ON SNOW AMOUNTS...SO UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS
RATHER HIGH. FOR NOW...HAVE FORECAST 2-4" OF SNOW ON THE LWR MD
ERN SHR...WITH 1-3" ACRS NRN NECK/VA ERN SHR...1-2" ACRS THE ERN
VA PIEDMONT/CNTRL VA INCLUDING RIC METRO AND TRI-CITIES...THEN
TAPERED TO 1" OR LESS OVR SCNTRL VA AND SE VA INCLUDING HAMPTON
RDS AND THE TIDEWATER AREA.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF AND END LATE TUE MORNG/AFTN...BUT
IF 00Z ECMWF IS CORRECT...THIS WOULD BE SLOWER AND ADDITIONAL
SNOW AMOUNTS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED...ESPLY OVR THE LWR MD ERN SHR.
LOWS TNGT IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S...HIGHS ON TUE RANGING FM THE
MID 30S TO LWR 40S. CLEARING/COLD TUE NGT/WED WITH LOWS IN THE
20S AND HIGHS ON WED RANGING FM THE LWR/MID 40S SW TO THE LWR/MID
30S NE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH DRY WX MOST
DAYS. FOR WED NIGHT...SFC HI PRES BLDS OVR THE MID ATLANTIC AND SE
STATES AS THE NEXT LO PRES SYSTM APPROACHES FM THE W. WITH A MSTLY
CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S IN MOST
SPOTS. LO PRES AND AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL VORT MAX WILL BRING
PRECIP (PLAIN RAIN) INTO THE AREA STARTING LATE THU. FAVORED THE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION...WITH A 30% CHANCE OF PRECIP (RA/SN
NORTH AND RA SOUTH) THU NIGHT...WITH LO TEMPS IN THE LO TO MID 30S.
CONDS THEN DRY OUT INTO FRI AND SAT AS SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W.
EXPECT A PRTLY CLOUDY SKY BOTH DAYS WITH NW WINDS AND HI TEMPS
FALLING FM THE 40S ON FRI TO THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 724 AM EST...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS
DETERIORATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUD BASES WILL LOWER TO MVFR
FIRST OVER RIC/SBY THROUGH 15Z...THEN BY LATE MORNING/AFTN OVER
PHF/ORF/ECG. LIGHT RAIN IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP MAINLY AT RIC THIS
MORNING...WITH VCSH WORDING AT SBY BY LATE MORNING. WENT AHEAD AND
LOWERED SBY TO IFR AFTER 18Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. BLENDED
CURRENT POPS WITH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE FOR STARTING TIMES OF PCPN.
CIGS AND VSBYS LOWER TO MVFR AND IN SOME CASES IFR DURING THE AFTN
EXCEPT AT ECG. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS FOR THIS TAF PERIOD AND
BEYOND APPEAR TO BE LINING UP FOR SBY WHERE NE WINDS WILL ALSO
BECOME GUSTY.

OUTLOOK...RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS
MONDAY INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY (02-06Z/TUESDAY) AND
CONTINUES TROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES AT
SBY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WHERE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALLIS
CURRENTLY FORECAST. ELSEWHERE, A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED AT RIC/PHF/ORF WITH ONLY A TRACE AMTS OF SNOW EXPECTED AT
ECG. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE AFTN AND THROUGH THE
EVENING AT SBY AND WL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT MON ESPECIALLY DURING
PERIODS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW. IFR CONDS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT AT PHF/ORF/ECG, MAINLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AND
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

DRY AND MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR PCPN LATE IN THE WEEK MAINLY ON THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WATCH HEADLINE HAS BEEN CONVERTED TO SMALL CARFT ADVY THROUGH
WED, WITH GALE WARNING REMAINING IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. E-SE FLOW OVER THE WATERS WILL BACK TO THE E-NE EARLY THIS
MORNING AND EVENUALLT TO THE NW LATER TODAY. SFC LOW WILL
REDEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA CST LATE TODAY, AND WILL INTENSIFY AS
IT SLOWLY LIFTS NE INTO TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR GALES
CONTINUES OVER NORTHERN ZONES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RAPIDLY
DEEPENING SFC LOW. SCA`S OVER REMAINDR OF THE WATERS AS FLOW
BECOMES NW AND INCREASES TO 20-25KT. RAPID RAMP UP OF WINDS WILL
QUICKLY BUILD SEAS TO 6-9 FT SOUTH AND 8-10 FT NORTH, W/ AT LEAST
12 FT OUT 20NM OVR NRN CSTL WATERS. WAVES IN THE CHES BAY UP TO
5-6 FT LATE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING. NW FLOW AND LOW END SCA CONDS
LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO WED MORNING AS SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN
FM THE W. SUB-SCA CONDS THEN FOR WED NIGHT/THU.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT NIGHT/TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF STRONG NLY
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 1 TO
1.5 FT...POSSIBLY HIGHER...DURING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLES. SITES IN THE LOWER BAY WILL REACH
HIGHEST ASTRO TIDE WITH WATER LEVELS APPROACHING MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS AT SEWELLS POINT TONIGHT. FOR OCEAN CITY...MINOR
FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH NEW GUIDANCE INDICATING AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR MODERATE. HV GONE AHEAD WITH COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR
WORCESTER COUNTY INVOF OCEAN CITY FOR TNGT. THIS WILL GIVE THE DAY
CREW ONE MORE OPPORTUNITY TO PERUSE LATEST GUIDANCE AND EITHER GO
WITH ADVY OR UPGRADE TO WARNING LATER TODAY. ANOTHER PERIOD OF
HIGH ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOMALIES DROP
OFF TUE NGT/WED AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR MDZ021>025.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
     MDZ024-025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ080-081-087>090-092-093.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ048-049-061-062-068-069.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     VAZ091-094>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>634-654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 261224
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
724 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
WEAKEN THIS MORNING...WHILE A NEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW WILL THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NORTH NORTHEAST
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...AREA OF RAIN WAS MOVNG INTO WRN AND NRN
COUNTIES IN ADVANCE OF SFC LO OVR SW VA AND UPR TROF PUSHING ACRS
THE MTNS. THE LO WILL WEAKEN THIS MORNG...WHILE A NEW LO PRES
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NC CST BY EARLY THIS AFTN. THAT LO
WILL THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLC CST INTO THIS EVENG.
COMBINATION OF THE SFC LO RE-DEVELOPMENT AND UPR TROF SWINGING
ACRS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN CHCS FOR RAIN TODAY INTO THIS
EVENG. HIGHEST POPS (60-80%) WILL BE OVR THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA
WHERE BEST LIFT WILL BE...WITH 30-40% POPS OVR THE SRN HALF. TEMPS
WILL WARM A BIT INTO EARLY AFTN DESPITE CLOUD COVER...POSSIBLE
PCPN AS WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FM THE E. HI TEMPS WILL RANGE FM
THE LWR 40S NW TO THE MID 50S OVR NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WILL FAVOR A BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM/ECMWF FOR THIS PERIOD. THE MAIN
EVENT FOR OUR AREA BEGINS TNGT INTO TUE MORNG...AS COLDER AIR
PLUNGES S IN RESPONSE TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SFC LO OFF
THE MID ATLC AND SRN NEW ENGLAND CST. STILL MAINLY RAIN ACRS THE
SRN 2/3 OF THE CWA IN THE EVENING...THEN TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW
BETWEEN 00Z-09Z FM NW TO SE. DURING THIS TIME...BEST LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS
WILL RESIDE OFF THE CST OR NE OF OUR CWA. HOWEVER...WILL BE
RELYING ON DEFORMATION ZONE AND POSSIBLE BANDING DEVELOPMENT FM
THE DELMARVA TO LONG ISLAND TO "WRAP AROUND" AND DROP S OVR THE
LWR MD ERN SHR...AND PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND ERN VA FM THIS EVENG
THRU TUE MORNG. THUS...BASED ON THE ABOVE REASONING AND WPC
FCSTS...HAVE ISSUED WINTER WX ADVISORIES FOR MOST OF THE CWA WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SW COUNTIES OF SCNTRL VA AND ALL OF NE NC
COUNTIES. GENERALLY...ADVSYS WILL RUN FM 8PM-1AM THIS EVENG/TNGT
TO 8AM-NOON TUE. ANY CHANGE IN THE POSITION OF THE BANDING CAN HAVE
DRASTIC EFFECTS ON SNOW AMOUNTS...SO UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS
RATHER HIGH. FOR NOW...HAVE FORECAST 2-4" OF SNOW ON THE LWR MD
ERN SHR...WITH 1-3" ACRS NRN NECK/VA ERN SHR...1-2" ACRS THE ERN
VA PIEDMONT/CNTRL VA INCLUDING RIC METRO AND TRI-CITIES...THEN
TAPERED TO 1" OR LESS OVR SCNTRL VA AND SE VA INCLUDING HAMPTON
RDS AND THE TIDEWATER AREA.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF AND END LATE TUE MORNG/AFTN...BUT
IF 00Z ECMWF IS CORRECT...THIS WOULD BE SLOWER AND ADDITIONAL
SNOW AMOUNTS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED...ESPLY OVR THE LWR MD ERN SHR.
LOWS TNGT IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S...HIGHS ON TUE RANGING FM THE
MID 30S TO LWR 40S. CLEARING/COLD TUE NGT/WED WITH LOWS IN THE
20S AND HIGHS ON WED RANGING FM THE LWR/MID 40S SW TO THE LWR/MID
30S NE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH DRY WX MOST
DAYS. FOR WED NIGHT...SFC HI PRES BLDS OVR THE MID ATLANTIC AND SE
STATES AS THE NEXT LO PRES SYSTM APPROACHES FM THE W. WITH A MSTLY
CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S IN MOST
SPOTS. LO PRES AND AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL VORT MAX WILL BRING
PRECIP (PLAIN RAIN) INTO THE AREA STARTING LATE THU. FAVORED THE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION...WITH A 30% CHANCE OF PRECIP (RA/SN
NORTH AND RA SOUTH) THU NIGHT...WITH LO TEMPS IN THE LO TO MID 30S.
CONDS THEN DRY OUT INTO FRI AND SAT AS SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W.
EXPECT A PRTLY CLOUDY SKY BOTH DAYS WITH NW WINDS AND HI TEMPS
FALLING FM THE 40S ON FRI TO THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 724 AM EST...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS
DETERIORATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUD BASES WILL LOWER TO MVFR
FIRST OVER RIC/SBY THROUGH 15Z...THEN BY LATE MORNING/AFTN OVER
PHF/ORF/ECG. LIGHT RAIN IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP MAINLY AT RIC THIS
MORNING...WITH VCSH WORDING AT SBY BY LATE MORNING. WENT AHEAD AND
LOWERED SBY TO IFR AFTER 18Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. BLENDED
CURRENT POPS WITH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE FOR STARTING TIMES OF PCPN.
CIGS AND VSBYS LOWER TO MVFR AND IN SOME CASES IFR DURING THE AFTN
EXCEPT AT ECG. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS FOR THIS TAF PERIOD AND
BEYOND APPEAR TO BE LINING UP FOR SBY WHERE NE WINDS WILL ALSO
BECOME GUSTY.

OUTLOOK...RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS
MONDAY INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY (02-06Z/TUESDAY) AND
CONTINUES TROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES AT
SBY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WHERE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALLIS
CURRENTLY FORECAST. ELSEWHERE, A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED AT RIC/PHF/ORF WITH ONLY A TRACE AMTS OF SNOW EXPECTED AT
ECG. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE AFTN AND THROUGH THE
EVENING AT SBY AND WL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT MON ESPECIALLY DURING
PERIODS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW. IFR CONDS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT AT PHF/ORF/ECG, MAINLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AND
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

DRY AND MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR PCPN LATE IN THE WEEK MAINLY ON THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WATCH HEADLINE HAS BEEN CONVERTED TO SMALL CARFT ADVY THROUGH
WED, WITH GALE WARNING REMAINING IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. E-SE FLOW OVER THE WATERS WILL BACK TO THE E-NE EARLY THIS
MORNING AND EVENUALLT TO THE NW LATER TODAY. SFC LOW WILL
REDEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA CST LATE TODAY, AND WILL INTENSIFY AS
IT SLOWLY LIFTS NE INTO TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR GALES
CONTINUES OVER NORTHERN ZONES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RAPIDLY
DEEPENING SFC LOW. SCA`S OVER REMAINDR OF THE WATERS AS FLOW
BECOMES NW AND INCREASES TO 20-25KT. RAPID RAMP UP OF WINDS WILL
QUICKLY BUILD SEAS TO 6-9 FT SOUTH AND 8-10 FT NORTH, W/ AT LEAST
12 FT OUT 20NM OVR NRN CSTL WATERS. WAVES IN THE CHES BAY UP TO
5-6 FT LATE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING. NW FLOW AND LOW END SCA CONDS
LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO WED MORNING AS SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN
FM THE W. SUB-SCA CONDS THEN FOR WED NIGHT/THU.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT NIGHT/TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF STRONG NLY
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 1 TO
1.5 FT...POSSIBLY HIGHER...DURING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLES. SITES IN THE LOWER BAY WILL REACH
HIGHEST ASTRO TIDE WITH WATER LEVELS APPROACHING MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS AT SEWELLS POINT TONIGHT. FOR OCEAN CITY...MINOR
FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH NEW GUIDANCE INDICATING AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR MODERATE. HV GONE AHEAD WITH COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR
WORCESTER COUNTY INVOF OCEAN CITY FOR TNGT. THIS WILL GIVE THE DAY
CREW ONE MORE OPPORTUNITY TO PERUSE LATEST GUIDANCE AND EITHER GO
WITH ADVY OR UPGRADE TO WARNING LATER TODAY. ANOTHER PERIOD OF
HIGH ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOMALIES DROP
OFF TUE NGT/WED AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR MDZ021>025.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
     MDZ024-025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ080-081-087>090-092-093.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ048-049-061-062-068-069.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     VAZ091-094>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>634-654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 261047
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
547 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
WEAKEN THIS MORNING...WHILE A NEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW WILL THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NORTH NORTHEAST
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...AREA OF RAIN WAS MOVNG INTO WRN AND NRN
COUNTIES IN ADVANCE OF SFC LO OVR SW VA AND UPR TROF PUSHING ACRS
THE MTNS. THE LO WILL WEAKEN THIS MORNG...WHILE A NEW LO PRES
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NC CST BY EARLY THIS AFTN. THAT LO
WILL THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLC CST INTO THIS EVENG.
COMBINATION OF THE SFC LO RE-DEVELOPMENT AND UPR TROF SWINGING
ACRS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN CHCS FOR RAIN TODAY INTO THIS
EVENG. HIGHEST POPS (60-80%) WILL BE OVR THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA
WHERE BEST LIFT WILL BE...WITH 30-40% POPS OVR THE SRN HALF. TEMPS
WILL WARM A BIT INTO EARLY AFTN DESPITE CLOUD COVER...POSSIBLE
PCPN AS WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FM THE E. HI TEMPS WILL RANGE FM
THE LWR 40S NW TO THE MID 50S OVR NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WILL FAVOR A BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM/ECMWF FOR THIS PERIOD. THE MAIN
EVENT FOR OUR AREA BEGINS TNGT INTO TUE MORNG...AS COLDER AIR
PLUNGES S IN RESPONSE TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SFC LO OFF
THE MID ATLC AND SRN NEW ENGLAND CST. STILL MAINLY RAIN ACRS THE
SRN 2/3 OF THE CWA IN THE EVENING...THEN TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW
BETWEEN 00Z-09Z FM NW TO SE. DURING THIS TIME...BEST LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS
WILL RESIDE OFF THE CST OR NE OF OUR CWA. HOWEVER...WILL BE
RELYING ON DEFORMATION ZONE AND POSSIBLE BANDING DEVELOPMENT FM
THE DELMARVA TO LONG ISLAND TO "WRAP AROUND" AND DROP S OVR THE
LWR MD ERN SHR...AND PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND ERN VA FM THIS EVENG
THRU TUE MORNG. THUS...BASED ON THE ABOVE REASONING AND WPC
FCSTS...HAVE ISSUED WINTER WX ADVISORIES FOR MOST OF THE CWA WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SW COUNTIES OF SCNTRL VA AND ALL OF NE NC
COUNTIES. GENERALLY...ADVSYS WILL RUN FM 8PM-1AM THIS EVENG/TNGT
TO 8AM-NOON TUE. ANY CHANGE IN THE POSITION OF THE BANDING CAN HAVE
DRASTIC EFFECTS ON SNOW AMOUNTS...SO UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS
RATHER HIGH. FOR NOW...HAVE FORECAST 2-4" OF SNOW ON THE LWR MD
ERN SHR...WITH 1-3" ACRS NRN NECK/VA ERN SHR...1-2" ACRS THE ERN
VA PIEDMONT/CNTRL VA INCLUDING RIC METRO AND TRI-CITIES...THEN
TAPERED TO 1" OR LESS OVR SCNTRL VA AND SE VA INCLUDING HAMPTON
RDS AND THE TIDEWATER AREA.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF AND END LATE TUE MORNG/AFTN...BUT
IF 00Z ECMWF IS CORRECT...THIS WOULD BE SLOWER AND ADDITIONAL
SNOW AMOUNTS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED...ESPLY OVR THE LWR MD ERN SHR.
LOWS TNGT IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S...HIGHS ON TUE RANGING FM THE
MID 30S TO LWR 40S. CLEARING/COLD TUE NGT/WED WITH LOWS IN THE
20S AND HIGHS ON WED RANGING FM THE LWR/MID 40S SW TO THE LWR/MID
30S NE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH DRY WX MOST
DAYS. FOR WED NIGHT...SFC HI PRES BLDS OVR THE MID ATLANTIC AND SE
STATES AS THE NEXT LO PRES SYSTM APPROACHES FM THE W. WITH A MSTLY
CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S IN MOST
SPOTS. LO PRES AND AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL VORT MAX WILL BRING
PRECIP (PLAIN RAIN) INTO THE AREA STARTING LATE THU. FAVORED THE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION...WITH A 30% CHANCE OF PRECIP (RA/SN
NORTH AND RA SOUTH) THU NIGHT...WITH LO TEMPS IN THE LO TO MID 30S.
CONDS THEN DRY OUT INTO FRI AND SAT AS SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W.
EXPECT A PRTLY CLOUDY SKY BOTH DAYS WITH NW WINDS AND HI TEMPS
FALLING FM THE 40S ON FRI TO THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY MORNING. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SLOWLY INCREASE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH CLOUD BASES LOWERING LATER THIS
MORNING...FIRST OVER RIC/SBY THROUGH 15Z...THEN BY LATE
MORNING/AFTN OVER PHF/ORF/ECG. LIGHT RAIN IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
MAINLY AT RIC THIS MORNING...WITH VCSH WORDING AT SBY BY LATE
MORNING. BLENDED CURRENT POPS WITH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE FOR
STARTING TIMES OF PCPN. CIGS AND VSBYS LOWER TO MVFR AND IN SOME
CASES IFR DURING THE AFTN EXCEPT AT ECG. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS FOR
THIS TAF PERIOD AND BEYOND APPEAR TO BE LINING UP FOR SBY WHERE NE
WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME GUSTY.

OUTLOOK...RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS
MONDAY INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY (02-06Z/TUESDAY) AND
CONTINUES TROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES AT
SBY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WHERE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALLIS
CURRENTLY FORECAST. ELSEWHERE, A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED AT RIC/PHF/ORF WITH ONLY A TRACE AMTS OF SNOW EXPECTED AT
ECG. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE AFTN AND THROUGH THE
EVENING AT SBY AND WL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT MON ESPECIALLY DURING
PERIODS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW. IFR CONDS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT AT PHF/ORF/ECG, MAINLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AND
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

DRY AND MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR PCPN LATE IN THE WEEK MAINLY ON THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WATCH HEADLINE HAS BEEN CONVERTED TO SMALL CARFT ADVY THROUGH
WED, WITH GALE WARNING REMAINING IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. E-SE FLOW OVER THE WATERS WILL BACK TO THE E-NE EARLY THIS
MORNING AND EVENUALLT TO THE NW LATER TODAY. SFC LOW WILL
REDEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA CST LATE TODAY, AND WILL INTENSIFY AS
IT SLOWLY LIFTS NE INTO TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR GALES
CONTINUES OVER NORTHERN ZONES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RAPIDLY
DEEPENING SFC LOW. SCA`S OVER REMAINDR OF THE WATERS AS FLOW
BECOMES NW AND INCREASES TO 20-25KT. RAPID RAMP UP OF WINDS WILL
QUICKLY BUILD SEAS TO 6-9 FT SOUTH AND 8-10 FT NORTH, W/ AT LEAST
12 FT OUT 20NM OVR NRN CSTL WATERS. WAVES IN THE CHES BAY UP TO
5-6 FT LATE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING. NW FLOW AND LOW END SCA CONDS
LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO WED MORNING AS SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN
FM THE W. SUB-SCA CONDS THEN FOR WED NIGHT/THU.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT NIGHT/TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF STRONG NLY
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 1 TO
1.5 FT...POSSIBLY HIGHER...DURING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLES. SITES IN THE LOWER BAY WILL REACH
HIGHEST ASTRO TIDE WITH WATER LEVELS APPROACHING MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS AT SEWELLS POINT TONIGHT. FOR OCEAN CITY...MINOR
FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH NEW GUIDANCE INDICATING AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR MODERATE. HV GONE AHEAD WITH COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR
WORCESTER COUNTY INVOF OCEAN CITY FOR TNGT. THIS WILL GIVE THE DAY
CREW ONE MORE OPPORTUNITY TO PERUSE LATEST GUIDANCE AND EITHER GO
WITH ADVY OR UPGRADE TO WARNING LATER TODAY. ANOTHER PERIOD OF
HIGH ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOMALIES DROP
OFF TUE NGT/WED AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR MDZ021>025.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
     MDZ024-025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ080-081-087>090-092-093.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ048-049-061-062-068-069.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     VAZ091-094>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>634-654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MAM






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 261047
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
547 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
WEAKEN THIS MORNING...WHILE A NEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW WILL THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NORTH NORTHEAST
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...AREA OF RAIN WAS MOVNG INTO WRN AND NRN
COUNTIES IN ADVANCE OF SFC LO OVR SW VA AND UPR TROF PUSHING ACRS
THE MTNS. THE LO WILL WEAKEN THIS MORNG...WHILE A NEW LO PRES
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NC CST BY EARLY THIS AFTN. THAT LO
WILL THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLC CST INTO THIS EVENG.
COMBINATION OF THE SFC LO RE-DEVELOPMENT AND UPR TROF SWINGING
ACRS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN CHCS FOR RAIN TODAY INTO THIS
EVENG. HIGHEST POPS (60-80%) WILL BE OVR THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA
WHERE BEST LIFT WILL BE...WITH 30-40% POPS OVR THE SRN HALF. TEMPS
WILL WARM A BIT INTO EARLY AFTN DESPITE CLOUD COVER...POSSIBLE
PCPN AS WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FM THE E. HI TEMPS WILL RANGE FM
THE LWR 40S NW TO THE MID 50S OVR NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WILL FAVOR A BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM/ECMWF FOR THIS PERIOD. THE MAIN
EVENT FOR OUR AREA BEGINS TNGT INTO TUE MORNG...AS COLDER AIR
PLUNGES S IN RESPONSE TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SFC LO OFF
THE MID ATLC AND SRN NEW ENGLAND CST. STILL MAINLY RAIN ACRS THE
SRN 2/3 OF THE CWA IN THE EVENING...THEN TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW
BETWEEN 00Z-09Z FM NW TO SE. DURING THIS TIME...BEST LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS
WILL RESIDE OFF THE CST OR NE OF OUR CWA. HOWEVER...WILL BE
RELYING ON DEFORMATION ZONE AND POSSIBLE BANDING DEVELOPMENT FM
THE DELMARVA TO LONG ISLAND TO "WRAP AROUND" AND DROP S OVR THE
LWR MD ERN SHR...AND PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND ERN VA FM THIS EVENG
THRU TUE MORNG. THUS...BASED ON THE ABOVE REASONING AND WPC
FCSTS...HAVE ISSUED WINTER WX ADVISORIES FOR MOST OF THE CWA WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SW COUNTIES OF SCNTRL VA AND ALL OF NE NC
COUNTIES. GENERALLY...ADVSYS WILL RUN FM 8PM-1AM THIS EVENG/TNGT
TO 8AM-NOON TUE. ANY CHANGE IN THE POSITION OF THE BANDING CAN HAVE
DRASTIC EFFECTS ON SNOW AMOUNTS...SO UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS
RATHER HIGH. FOR NOW...HAVE FORECAST 2-4" OF SNOW ON THE LWR MD
ERN SHR...WITH 1-3" ACRS NRN NECK/VA ERN SHR...1-2" ACRS THE ERN
VA PIEDMONT/CNTRL VA INCLUDING RIC METRO AND TRI-CITIES...THEN
TAPERED TO 1" OR LESS OVR SCNTRL VA AND SE VA INCLUDING HAMPTON
RDS AND THE TIDEWATER AREA.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF AND END LATE TUE MORNG/AFTN...BUT
IF 00Z ECMWF IS CORRECT...THIS WOULD BE SLOWER AND ADDITIONAL
SNOW AMOUNTS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED...ESPLY OVR THE LWR MD ERN SHR.
LOWS TNGT IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S...HIGHS ON TUE RANGING FM THE
MID 30S TO LWR 40S. CLEARING/COLD TUE NGT/WED WITH LOWS IN THE
20S AND HIGHS ON WED RANGING FM THE LWR/MID 40S SW TO THE LWR/MID
30S NE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH DRY WX MOST
DAYS. FOR WED NIGHT...SFC HI PRES BLDS OVR THE MID ATLANTIC AND SE
STATES AS THE NEXT LO PRES SYSTM APPROACHES FM THE W. WITH A MSTLY
CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S IN MOST
SPOTS. LO PRES AND AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL VORT MAX WILL BRING
PRECIP (PLAIN RAIN) INTO THE AREA STARTING LATE THU. FAVORED THE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION...WITH A 30% CHANCE OF PRECIP (RA/SN
NORTH AND RA SOUTH) THU NIGHT...WITH LO TEMPS IN THE LO TO MID 30S.
CONDS THEN DRY OUT INTO FRI AND SAT AS SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W.
EXPECT A PRTLY CLOUDY SKY BOTH DAYS WITH NW WINDS AND HI TEMPS
FALLING FM THE 40S ON FRI TO THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY MORNING. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SLOWLY INCREASE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH CLOUD BASES LOWERING LATER THIS
MORNING...FIRST OVER RIC/SBY THROUGH 15Z...THEN BY LATE
MORNING/AFTN OVER PHF/ORF/ECG. LIGHT RAIN IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
MAINLY AT RIC THIS MORNING...WITH VCSH WORDING AT SBY BY LATE
MORNING. BLENDED CURRENT POPS WITH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE FOR
STARTING TIMES OF PCPN. CIGS AND VSBYS LOWER TO MVFR AND IN SOME
CASES IFR DURING THE AFTN EXCEPT AT ECG. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS FOR
THIS TAF PERIOD AND BEYOND APPEAR TO BE LINING UP FOR SBY WHERE NE
WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME GUSTY.

OUTLOOK...RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS
MONDAY INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY (02-06Z/TUESDAY) AND
CONTINUES TROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES AT
SBY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WHERE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALLIS
CURRENTLY FORECAST. ELSEWHERE, A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED AT RIC/PHF/ORF WITH ONLY A TRACE AMTS OF SNOW EXPECTED AT
ECG. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE AFTN AND THROUGH THE
EVENING AT SBY AND WL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT MON ESPECIALLY DURING
PERIODS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW. IFR CONDS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT AT PHF/ORF/ECG, MAINLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AND
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

DRY AND MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR PCPN LATE IN THE WEEK MAINLY ON THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WATCH HEADLINE HAS BEEN CONVERTED TO SMALL CARFT ADVY THROUGH
WED, WITH GALE WARNING REMAINING IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. E-SE FLOW OVER THE WATERS WILL BACK TO THE E-NE EARLY THIS
MORNING AND EVENUALLT TO THE NW LATER TODAY. SFC LOW WILL
REDEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA CST LATE TODAY, AND WILL INTENSIFY AS
IT SLOWLY LIFTS NE INTO TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR GALES
CONTINUES OVER NORTHERN ZONES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RAPIDLY
DEEPENING SFC LOW. SCA`S OVER REMAINDR OF THE WATERS AS FLOW
BECOMES NW AND INCREASES TO 20-25KT. RAPID RAMP UP OF WINDS WILL
QUICKLY BUILD SEAS TO 6-9 FT SOUTH AND 8-10 FT NORTH, W/ AT LEAST
12 FT OUT 20NM OVR NRN CSTL WATERS. WAVES IN THE CHES BAY UP TO
5-6 FT LATE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING. NW FLOW AND LOW END SCA CONDS
LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO WED MORNING AS SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN
FM THE W. SUB-SCA CONDS THEN FOR WED NIGHT/THU.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT NIGHT/TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF STRONG NLY
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 1 TO
1.5 FT...POSSIBLY HIGHER...DURING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLES. SITES IN THE LOWER BAY WILL REACH
HIGHEST ASTRO TIDE WITH WATER LEVELS APPROACHING MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS AT SEWELLS POINT TONIGHT. FOR OCEAN CITY...MINOR
FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH NEW GUIDANCE INDICATING AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR MODERATE. HV GONE AHEAD WITH COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR
WORCESTER COUNTY INVOF OCEAN CITY FOR TNGT. THIS WILL GIVE THE DAY
CREW ONE MORE OPPORTUNITY TO PERUSE LATEST GUIDANCE AND EITHER GO
WITH ADVY OR UPGRADE TO WARNING LATER TODAY. ANOTHER PERIOD OF
HIGH ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOMALIES DROP
OFF TUE NGT/WED AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR MDZ021>025.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
     MDZ024-025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ080-081-087>090-092-093.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ048-049-061-062-068-069.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     VAZ091-094>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>634-654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MAM






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 261047
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
547 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
WEAKEN THIS MORNING...WHILE A NEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW WILL THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NORTH NORTHEAST
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...AREA OF RAIN WAS MOVNG INTO WRN AND NRN
COUNTIES IN ADVANCE OF SFC LO OVR SW VA AND UPR TROF PUSHING ACRS
THE MTNS. THE LO WILL WEAKEN THIS MORNG...WHILE A NEW LO PRES
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NC CST BY EARLY THIS AFTN. THAT LO
WILL THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLC CST INTO THIS EVENG.
COMBINATION OF THE SFC LO RE-DEVELOPMENT AND UPR TROF SWINGING
ACRS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN CHCS FOR RAIN TODAY INTO THIS
EVENG. HIGHEST POPS (60-80%) WILL BE OVR THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA
WHERE BEST LIFT WILL BE...WITH 30-40% POPS OVR THE SRN HALF. TEMPS
WILL WARM A BIT INTO EARLY AFTN DESPITE CLOUD COVER...POSSIBLE
PCPN AS WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FM THE E. HI TEMPS WILL RANGE FM
THE LWR 40S NW TO THE MID 50S OVR NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WILL FAVOR A BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM/ECMWF FOR THIS PERIOD. THE MAIN
EVENT FOR OUR AREA BEGINS TNGT INTO TUE MORNG...AS COLDER AIR
PLUNGES S IN RESPONSE TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SFC LO OFF
THE MID ATLC AND SRN NEW ENGLAND CST. STILL MAINLY RAIN ACRS THE
SRN 2/3 OF THE CWA IN THE EVENING...THEN TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW
BETWEEN 00Z-09Z FM NW TO SE. DURING THIS TIME...BEST LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS
WILL RESIDE OFF THE CST OR NE OF OUR CWA. HOWEVER...WILL BE
RELYING ON DEFORMATION ZONE AND POSSIBLE BANDING DEVELOPMENT FM
THE DELMARVA TO LONG ISLAND TO "WRAP AROUND" AND DROP S OVR THE
LWR MD ERN SHR...AND PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND ERN VA FM THIS EVENG
THRU TUE MORNG. THUS...BASED ON THE ABOVE REASONING AND WPC
FCSTS...HAVE ISSUED WINTER WX ADVISORIES FOR MOST OF THE CWA WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SW COUNTIES OF SCNTRL VA AND ALL OF NE NC
COUNTIES. GENERALLY...ADVSYS WILL RUN FM 8PM-1AM THIS EVENG/TNGT
TO 8AM-NOON TUE. ANY CHANGE IN THE POSITION OF THE BANDING CAN HAVE
DRASTIC EFFECTS ON SNOW AMOUNTS...SO UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS
RATHER HIGH. FOR NOW...HAVE FORECAST 2-4" OF SNOW ON THE LWR MD
ERN SHR...WITH 1-3" ACRS NRN NECK/VA ERN SHR...1-2" ACRS THE ERN
VA PIEDMONT/CNTRL VA INCLUDING RIC METRO AND TRI-CITIES...THEN
TAPERED TO 1" OR LESS OVR SCNTRL VA AND SE VA INCLUDING HAMPTON
RDS AND THE TIDEWATER AREA.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF AND END LATE TUE MORNG/AFTN...BUT
IF 00Z ECMWF IS CORRECT...THIS WOULD BE SLOWER AND ADDITIONAL
SNOW AMOUNTS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED...ESPLY OVR THE LWR MD ERN SHR.
LOWS TNGT IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S...HIGHS ON TUE RANGING FM THE
MID 30S TO LWR 40S. CLEARING/COLD TUE NGT/WED WITH LOWS IN THE
20S AND HIGHS ON WED RANGING FM THE LWR/MID 40S SW TO THE LWR/MID
30S NE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH DRY WX MOST
DAYS. FOR WED NIGHT...SFC HI PRES BLDS OVR THE MID ATLANTIC AND SE
STATES AS THE NEXT LO PRES SYSTM APPROACHES FM THE W. WITH A MSTLY
CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S IN MOST
SPOTS. LO PRES AND AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL VORT MAX WILL BRING
PRECIP (PLAIN RAIN) INTO THE AREA STARTING LATE THU. FAVORED THE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION...WITH A 30% CHANCE OF PRECIP (RA/SN
NORTH AND RA SOUTH) THU NIGHT...WITH LO TEMPS IN THE LO TO MID 30S.
CONDS THEN DRY OUT INTO FRI AND SAT AS SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W.
EXPECT A PRTLY CLOUDY SKY BOTH DAYS WITH NW WINDS AND HI TEMPS
FALLING FM THE 40S ON FRI TO THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY MORNING. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SLOWLY INCREASE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH CLOUD BASES LOWERING LATER THIS
MORNING...FIRST OVER RIC/SBY THROUGH 15Z...THEN BY LATE
MORNING/AFTN OVER PHF/ORF/ECG. LIGHT RAIN IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
MAINLY AT RIC THIS MORNING...WITH VCSH WORDING AT SBY BY LATE
MORNING. BLENDED CURRENT POPS WITH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE FOR
STARTING TIMES OF PCPN. CIGS AND VSBYS LOWER TO MVFR AND IN SOME
CASES IFR DURING THE AFTN EXCEPT AT ECG. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS FOR
THIS TAF PERIOD AND BEYOND APPEAR TO BE LINING UP FOR SBY WHERE NE
WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME GUSTY.

OUTLOOK...RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS
MONDAY INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY (02-06Z/TUESDAY) AND
CONTINUES TROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES AT
SBY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WHERE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALLIS
CURRENTLY FORECAST. ELSEWHERE, A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED AT RIC/PHF/ORF WITH ONLY A TRACE AMTS OF SNOW EXPECTED AT
ECG. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE AFTN AND THROUGH THE
EVENING AT SBY AND WL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT MON ESPECIALLY DURING
PERIODS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW. IFR CONDS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT AT PHF/ORF/ECG, MAINLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AND
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

DRY AND MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR PCPN LATE IN THE WEEK MAINLY ON THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WATCH HEADLINE HAS BEEN CONVERTED TO SMALL CARFT ADVY THROUGH
WED, WITH GALE WARNING REMAINING IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. E-SE FLOW OVER THE WATERS WILL BACK TO THE E-NE EARLY THIS
MORNING AND EVENUALLT TO THE NW LATER TODAY. SFC LOW WILL
REDEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA CST LATE TODAY, AND WILL INTENSIFY AS
IT SLOWLY LIFTS NE INTO TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR GALES
CONTINUES OVER NORTHERN ZONES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RAPIDLY
DEEPENING SFC LOW. SCA`S OVER REMAINDR OF THE WATERS AS FLOW
BECOMES NW AND INCREASES TO 20-25KT. RAPID RAMP UP OF WINDS WILL
QUICKLY BUILD SEAS TO 6-9 FT SOUTH AND 8-10 FT NORTH, W/ AT LEAST
12 FT OUT 20NM OVR NRN CSTL WATERS. WAVES IN THE CHES BAY UP TO
5-6 FT LATE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING. NW FLOW AND LOW END SCA CONDS
LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO WED MORNING AS SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN
FM THE W. SUB-SCA CONDS THEN FOR WED NIGHT/THU.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT NIGHT/TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF STRONG NLY
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 1 TO
1.5 FT...POSSIBLY HIGHER...DURING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLES. SITES IN THE LOWER BAY WILL REACH
HIGHEST ASTRO TIDE WITH WATER LEVELS APPROACHING MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS AT SEWELLS POINT TONIGHT. FOR OCEAN CITY...MINOR
FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH NEW GUIDANCE INDICATING AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR MODERATE. HV GONE AHEAD WITH COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR
WORCESTER COUNTY INVOF OCEAN CITY FOR TNGT. THIS WILL GIVE THE DAY
CREW ONE MORE OPPORTUNITY TO PERUSE LATEST GUIDANCE AND EITHER GO
WITH ADVY OR UPGRADE TO WARNING LATER TODAY. ANOTHER PERIOD OF
HIGH ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOMALIES DROP
OFF TUE NGT/WED AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR MDZ021>025.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
     MDZ024-025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ080-081-087>090-092-093.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ048-049-061-062-068-069.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     VAZ091-094>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>634-654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MAM






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 261047
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
547 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
WEAKEN THIS MORNING...WHILE A NEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW WILL THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NORTH NORTHEAST
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...AREA OF RAIN WAS MOVNG INTO WRN AND NRN
COUNTIES IN ADVANCE OF SFC LO OVR SW VA AND UPR TROF PUSHING ACRS
THE MTNS. THE LO WILL WEAKEN THIS MORNG...WHILE A NEW LO PRES
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NC CST BY EARLY THIS AFTN. THAT LO
WILL THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLC CST INTO THIS EVENG.
COMBINATION OF THE SFC LO RE-DEVELOPMENT AND UPR TROF SWINGING
ACRS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN CHCS FOR RAIN TODAY INTO THIS
EVENG. HIGHEST POPS (60-80%) WILL BE OVR THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA
WHERE BEST LIFT WILL BE...WITH 30-40% POPS OVR THE SRN HALF. TEMPS
WILL WARM A BIT INTO EARLY AFTN DESPITE CLOUD COVER...POSSIBLE
PCPN AS WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FM THE E. HI TEMPS WILL RANGE FM
THE LWR 40S NW TO THE MID 50S OVR NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WILL FAVOR A BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM/ECMWF FOR THIS PERIOD. THE MAIN
EVENT FOR OUR AREA BEGINS TNGT INTO TUE MORNG...AS COLDER AIR
PLUNGES S IN RESPONSE TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SFC LO OFF
THE MID ATLC AND SRN NEW ENGLAND CST. STILL MAINLY RAIN ACRS THE
SRN 2/3 OF THE CWA IN THE EVENING...THEN TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW
BETWEEN 00Z-09Z FM NW TO SE. DURING THIS TIME...BEST LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS
WILL RESIDE OFF THE CST OR NE OF OUR CWA. HOWEVER...WILL BE
RELYING ON DEFORMATION ZONE AND POSSIBLE BANDING DEVELOPMENT FM
THE DELMARVA TO LONG ISLAND TO "WRAP AROUND" AND DROP S OVR THE
LWR MD ERN SHR...AND PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND ERN VA FM THIS EVENG
THRU TUE MORNG. THUS...BASED ON THE ABOVE REASONING AND WPC
FCSTS...HAVE ISSUED WINTER WX ADVISORIES FOR MOST OF THE CWA WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SW COUNTIES OF SCNTRL VA AND ALL OF NE NC
COUNTIES. GENERALLY...ADVSYS WILL RUN FM 8PM-1AM THIS EVENG/TNGT
TO 8AM-NOON TUE. ANY CHANGE IN THE POSITION OF THE BANDING CAN HAVE
DRASTIC EFFECTS ON SNOW AMOUNTS...SO UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS
RATHER HIGH. FOR NOW...HAVE FORECAST 2-4" OF SNOW ON THE LWR MD
ERN SHR...WITH 1-3" ACRS NRN NECK/VA ERN SHR...1-2" ACRS THE ERN
VA PIEDMONT/CNTRL VA INCLUDING RIC METRO AND TRI-CITIES...THEN
TAPERED TO 1" OR LESS OVR SCNTRL VA AND SE VA INCLUDING HAMPTON
RDS AND THE TIDEWATER AREA.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF AND END LATE TUE MORNG/AFTN...BUT
IF 00Z ECMWF IS CORRECT...THIS WOULD BE SLOWER AND ADDITIONAL
SNOW AMOUNTS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED...ESPLY OVR THE LWR MD ERN SHR.
LOWS TNGT IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S...HIGHS ON TUE RANGING FM THE
MID 30S TO LWR 40S. CLEARING/COLD TUE NGT/WED WITH LOWS IN THE
20S AND HIGHS ON WED RANGING FM THE LWR/MID 40S SW TO THE LWR/MID
30S NE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH DRY WX MOST
DAYS. FOR WED NIGHT...SFC HI PRES BLDS OVR THE MID ATLANTIC AND SE
STATES AS THE NEXT LO PRES SYSTM APPROACHES FM THE W. WITH A MSTLY
CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S IN MOST
SPOTS. LO PRES AND AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL VORT MAX WILL BRING
PRECIP (PLAIN RAIN) INTO THE AREA STARTING LATE THU. FAVORED THE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION...WITH A 30% CHANCE OF PRECIP (RA/SN
NORTH AND RA SOUTH) THU NIGHT...WITH LO TEMPS IN THE LO TO MID 30S.
CONDS THEN DRY OUT INTO FRI AND SAT AS SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W.
EXPECT A PRTLY CLOUDY SKY BOTH DAYS WITH NW WINDS AND HI TEMPS
FALLING FM THE 40S ON FRI TO THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY MORNING. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SLOWLY INCREASE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH CLOUD BASES LOWERING LATER THIS
MORNING...FIRST OVER RIC/SBY THROUGH 15Z...THEN BY LATE
MORNING/AFTN OVER PHF/ORF/ECG. LIGHT RAIN IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
MAINLY AT RIC THIS MORNING...WITH VCSH WORDING AT SBY BY LATE
MORNING. BLENDED CURRENT POPS WITH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE FOR
STARTING TIMES OF PCPN. CIGS AND VSBYS LOWER TO MVFR AND IN SOME
CASES IFR DURING THE AFTN EXCEPT AT ECG. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS FOR
THIS TAF PERIOD AND BEYOND APPEAR TO BE LINING UP FOR SBY WHERE NE
WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME GUSTY.

OUTLOOK...RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS
MONDAY INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY (02-06Z/TUESDAY) AND
CONTINUES TROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES AT
SBY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WHERE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALLIS
CURRENTLY FORECAST. ELSEWHERE, A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED AT RIC/PHF/ORF WITH ONLY A TRACE AMTS OF SNOW EXPECTED AT
ECG. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE AFTN AND THROUGH THE
EVENING AT SBY AND WL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT MON ESPECIALLY DURING
PERIODS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW. IFR CONDS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT AT PHF/ORF/ECG, MAINLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AND
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

DRY AND MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR PCPN LATE IN THE WEEK MAINLY ON THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WATCH HEADLINE HAS BEEN CONVERTED TO SMALL CARFT ADVY THROUGH
WED, WITH GALE WARNING REMAINING IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. E-SE FLOW OVER THE WATERS WILL BACK TO THE E-NE EARLY THIS
MORNING AND EVENUALLT TO THE NW LATER TODAY. SFC LOW WILL
REDEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA CST LATE TODAY, AND WILL INTENSIFY AS
IT SLOWLY LIFTS NE INTO TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR GALES
CONTINUES OVER NORTHERN ZONES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RAPIDLY
DEEPENING SFC LOW. SCA`S OVER REMAINDR OF THE WATERS AS FLOW
BECOMES NW AND INCREASES TO 20-25KT. RAPID RAMP UP OF WINDS WILL
QUICKLY BUILD SEAS TO 6-9 FT SOUTH AND 8-10 FT NORTH, W/ AT LEAST
12 FT OUT 20NM OVR NRN CSTL WATERS. WAVES IN THE CHES BAY UP TO
5-6 FT LATE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING. NW FLOW AND LOW END SCA CONDS
LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO WED MORNING AS SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN
FM THE W. SUB-SCA CONDS THEN FOR WED NIGHT/THU.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT NIGHT/TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF STRONG NLY
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 1 TO
1.5 FT...POSSIBLY HIGHER...DURING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLES. SITES IN THE LOWER BAY WILL REACH
HIGHEST ASTRO TIDE WITH WATER LEVELS APPROACHING MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS AT SEWELLS POINT TONIGHT. FOR OCEAN CITY...MINOR
FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH NEW GUIDANCE INDICATING AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR MODERATE. HV GONE AHEAD WITH COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR
WORCESTER COUNTY INVOF OCEAN CITY FOR TNGT. THIS WILL GIVE THE DAY
CREW ONE MORE OPPORTUNITY TO PERUSE LATEST GUIDANCE AND EITHER GO
WITH ADVY OR UPGRADE TO WARNING LATER TODAY. ANOTHER PERIOD OF
HIGH ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOMALIES DROP
OFF TUE NGT/WED AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR MDZ021>025.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
     MDZ024-025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ080-081-087>090-092-093.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ048-049-061-062-068-069.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     VAZ091-094>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>634-654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MAM






000
FXUS61 KRNK 261030
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
530 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...
ON ITS WAY TO THE COAST BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING PERIODS OF SNOW AND RAIN TO MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY INTO
MONDAY. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD FOLLOW THIS FEATURE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 445 AM EST MONDAY...

THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING...RESULTING IN NEAR
CALM WINDS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE
PIEDMONT. LOOKING AT A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES...FROM THE LOW
40S ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA...TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS
THE NORTH CAROLINA HIGHLANDS. ONLY A FEW BANDS OF PRECIPITATION
PER LATEST RADAR IMAGERY...MAINLY AFFECTING THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE HIGHER RIDGES...CHANGING TO RAIN IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS QUICKLY EAST TODAY...APPROACHING THE COAST
BY AROUND NOON. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW DURING THE MORNING...
EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY...DRAWING COLDER AIR INTO THE
AREA AND CAPPING HEATING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THE WIND SHIFT WILL TAKE
UNTIL MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...MAKING MORE TIME FOR
WARMING...WHICH WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE
LOW TO MID 40S.

UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN
RIDGES DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND THE EVENING AS THE NORTHWEST FLOW
SWITCHES TO THE IDEAL DIRECTION TO DRAW MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES FOR A FEW HOURS. HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR ALONG
THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR...WHERE 1 TO 4 INCHES ACCUMULATION WILL
BE POSSIBLE. AS SUCH...HAVE EXTENDED THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING IN THIS AREA TO INCLUDE THE
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE ALONG THE
WEST FACING RIDGES. BELIEVE THAT MOST SNOWFALL WILL ACCUMULATE ON
MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES DUE TO THE RECENT MILD WEATHER...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ON ROADWAY SURFACES/SLICK
CONDITIONS IN THE COLDER AIR ALONG THE RIDGE TOPS. LESSER SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE RIDGES
SOUTHWARD IN NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA.

SNOWFALL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BEGINNING LATE EVENING AS MOISTURE
ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES DECREASES. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO GUSTY
WINDS THAT WILL AFFECT THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEEPEN...AND HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT...HOWEVER WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE GUSTS OCCASIONALLY EXCEED 40 MPH...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA HIGHLANDS...GRAYSON
HIGHLANDS AND THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS.

COLDER AIR BUILDING IN WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO RANGE
FROM THE MID TEENS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...TO
NEAR 30 OVER THE VIRGINIA SOUTHSIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM EST MONDAY...

A COASTAL LOW TRACKING NORTH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
BECOME A STRONG NOR-EASTER BY DAYS END TUESDAY. THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE
BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL COVER A GOOD CHUCK OF REAL ESTATE FROM
THE GREAT LAKES...OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...AND THE CAROLINAS AND
POINTS NORTHEAST. THE MIDDLE RINGS OF THIS LOW WILL SEND A SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. THESE WAVES WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE COASTAL PIEDMONT...BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO AREAS EAST OF
HWY 29 EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS CONFIDED TO GRASSY AND/OR ELEVATED
SURFACES. THE BULK OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE FOCUSED ON NORTHERN
SLOPES AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. SHORT WAVES ON THE OUTER BANDS OF THE LOW COULD
DEPOSIT 1-2 INCHES ON THESE SLOPES NORTH OF I64...TO ABOUT AN INCH
TOWARDS THE NORTH CAROLINA HIGH COUNTY. THESE AMOUNTS ARE
QUESTIONABLE WITH THE FLOW BEING MORE NORTHERLY THAN NORTHWESTERLY
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE WETTEST OF THE SNOW WILL OCCUR MONDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO GET DRIER WITH EACH PASSING WAVE. THE DRYNESS
OF THE SNOW COULD LEAD TO HIGHER AMOUNTS BUT SHOULD NOT EXCEED 3
INCHES DURING THE UPSLOPE PORTION OF THIS EVENT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT.

WITH THE NOR-EASTER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE MID WEST...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP BREEZY AND GUSTY
CONDITIONS IN THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. PRESSURE RISES
DO NOT APPEAR TO BE TO STRONG ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERLY FLOW AND A 30-
40KT JET. THESE WINDS WILL RELAX OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
WEST TRACKS OVER THE REGION STARTING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO PEAK EARLY IN THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS ACROSS THE WEST WILL RANGE IN
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE COULD WARM TO NEAR
40F. IF WINDS COULD DECOUPLE BY SUNRISE...WEDNESDAY MORNINGS LOWS
WILL DIP INTO THE TEENS IN THE WEST TO MID 20S EAST. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE COAST ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO TRACK OVER THE AREA.
UNFORTUNATELY...WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL FALL SHY OF NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST SATURDAY...

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE GOING BACK TO SPLIT FLOW FOR THE
EXTENDED WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA DOMINATING THE
SOUTHERN STREAM...AND A WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROF FOR THE NORTHERN
STREAM. GFS IS LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WHICH GIVES
IT A WARMER LOOK THAN THE ECMWF.

WE WILL SEE A NORTHERN STREAM LOW MOVE BY TO OUR NORTH ON THURSDAY
WHICH WILL BRING US A CHANCE OF LIGHT SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION WHICH
LOOKS TO BE MIX TO RAIN FOR THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN SWING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING WHICH SETS THE STAGE
FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE WINDS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LOOK QUITE BLUSTERY RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND FORMS A
BIT OF A WEDGE WITH QUIET WEATHER FOR FOR SATURDAY. EURO WANTS TO
BRING A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY.
GFS IS NOT ON BOARD WITH THIS AND ENSEMBLES WERE NOT INDICATING A
MAJOR ARCTIC OUTBREAK. WILL BE LEANING MORE TOWARD THE GFS/ENSEMBLE
SOLUTION AND KEEP TEMPS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT A GOOD 20F WARMER
THAN THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1155 PM EST SUNDAY...

CEILINGS WERE VFR BUT LOWERING OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
CEILINGS WILL QUICKLY LOWER TO IFR AS THE RAIN ARRIVES FROM WEST
TO EAST BETWEEN 09Z/4AM AND 11/6AM. THERE MAY BE SNOW MIXED IN THE
WITH RAIN AT KBLF AND KLWB FOR A COUPLE HOURS IN THE MORNING BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM KENTUCKY DIRECTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA. AS THE LOW PROGRESSES OFFSHORE AND WINDS COME AROUND TO
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST...MUCH COLDER AIR COMES INTO THE REGION.
RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 21Z/4PM. LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KLWB. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY AFTER 00Z AT ALL TAF SITES AS THE LOW DEEPENS
OFFSHORE.

EXPECT CEILINGS TO COME UP A BIT MONDAY AFTERNOON EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...BUT REMAIN BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR IN THE FAVORED UPSLOPE
AREAS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ON TUESDAY. MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY ACROSS BLF/LWB AND PERHAPS EVEN BCB DUE TO
SCATTERED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS. EASTERN TAF LOCATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE A
QUIET DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TAF LOCATIONS. ANOTHER
CLIPPER SYSTEM ARRIVES ON THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CEILINGS AND VSBYS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
HINTON ALL HAZARDS RADIO...162.425MHZ IS OFF THE AIR. THERE IS NO
ESTIMATE FOR RETURN TO SERVICE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ019-020-024.
NC...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...AMS/CF
EQUIPMENT...AMS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 261008
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
508 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
WEAKEN THIS MORNING...WHILE A NEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW WILL THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NORTH NORTHEAST
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...AREA OF RAIN WAS MOVNG INTO WRN AND NRN
COUNTIES IN ADVANCE OF SFC LO OVR SW VA AND UPR TROF PUSHING ACRS
THE MTNS. THE LO WILL WEAKEN THIS MORNG...WHILE A NEW LO PRES
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NC CST BY EARLY THIS AFTN. THAT LO
WILL THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLC CST INTO THIS EVENG.
COMBINATION OF THE SFC LO RE-DEVELOPMENT AND UPR TROF SWINGING
ACRS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN CHCS FOR RAIN TODAY INTO THIS
EVENG. HIGHEST POPS (60-80%) WILL BE OVR THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA
WHERE BEST LIFT WILL BE...WITH 30-40% POPS OVR THE SRN HALF. TEMPS
WILL WARM A BIT INTO EARLY AFTN DESPITE CLOUD COVER...POSSIBLE
PCPN AS WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FM THE E. HI TEMPS WILL RANGE FM
THE LWR 40S NW TO THE MID 50S OVR NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WILL FAVOR A BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM/ECMWF FOR THIS PERIOD. THE MAIN
EVENT FOR OUR AREA BEGINS TNGT...AS COLDER AIR PLUNGES SOUTH IN
RESPONSE TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SFC LOW OFF THE VA COAST.
STILL MAINLY RAIN ACRS THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE CWA IN THE
EVENING...BECOMING ALL SNOW BETWEEN 03-06Z FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
DURING THIS TIME...BEST LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS WILL RESIDE OFF THE
COAST. WILL BE RELYING ON DEFORMATION ZONE AND INTENSE BANDING
DEVELOPING FROM THE DELMARVA TO LOG ISLAND TO "WRAP AROUND" AND
DROP SOUTH FOR MOST OF OUR SNOW INTO THE DAY TUE. THUS...SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL SHOW A SHARP CUTOFF. ANY CHANGE IN POSITION OF THIS
BANDING CAN HAVE DRASTIC EFFECTS ON SNOW AMOUNTS...SO UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS RATHER HIGH. HAVE FORECAST ROUGHLY 3-6" OF SNOW ON THE MD
ERN SHORE IN THE WATCH AREA...WITH 2-3" ACRS NRN NECK/VA ERN SHORE
(AREAS THAT WILL PROBABLY NEED AN ADVISORY)...TAPERED FAIRLY QUICK
TO < 1" OVER MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. COULD SEE SLIGHTLY
MORE THAN 1" ACRS HAMPTON ROADS EARLY TUE HOWEVER.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF LATE TUE MORNING/AFTN...BUT IF ECMWF
IS CORRECT THIS WOULD BE SLOWER AND ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS MAY
NEED TO BE ADDED. MAV/MET GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO WARM TUE...ESPECIALLY
ACRS THE NE. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LWR 30S NE TO AROUND 40 F SW.
CLEARING/COLD TUE NIGHT/WED WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID
20S AND HIGHS ON WED IN LWR 40S SW TO THE LWR 30S NE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH DRY WX MOST
DAYS. FOR WED NIGHT...SFC HI PRES BLDS OVR THE MID ATLANTIC AND SE
STATES AS THE NEXT LO PRES SYSTM APPROACHES FM THE W. WITH A MSTLY
CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S IN MOST
SPOTS. LO PRES AND AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL VORT MAX WILL BRING
PRECIP (PLAIN RAIN) INTO THE AREA STARTING LATE THU. FAVORED THE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION...WITH A 30% CHANCE OF PRECIP (RA/SN
NORTH AND RA SOUTH) THU NIGHT...WITH LO TEMPS IN THE LO TO MID 30S.
CONDS THEN DRY OUT INTO FRI AND SAT AS SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W.
EXPECT A PRTLY CLOUDY SKY BOTH DAYS WITH NW WINDS AND HI TEMPS
FALLING FM THE 40S ON FRI TO THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY MORNING. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SLOWLY INCREASE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH CLOUD BASES LOWERING LATER THIS
MORNING...FIRST OVER RIC/SBY THROUGH 15Z...THEN BY LATE
MORNING/AFTN OVER PHF/ORF/ECG. LIGHT RAIN IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
MAINLY AT RIC THIS MORNING...WITH VCSH WORDING AT SBY BY LATE
MORNING. BLENDED CURRENT POPS WITH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE FOR
STARTING TIMES OF PCPN. CIGS AND VSBYS LOWER TO MVFR AND IN SOME
CASES IFR DURING THE AFTN EXCEPT AT ECG. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS FOR
THIS TAF PERIOD AND BEYOND APPEAR TO BE LINING UP FOR SBY WHERE NE
WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME GUSTY.

OUTLOOK...RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS
MONDAY INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY (02-06Z/TUESDAY) AND
CONTINUES TROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES AT
SBY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WHERE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALLIS
CURRENTLY FORECAST. ELSEWHERE, A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED AT RIC/PHF/ORF WITH ONLY A TRACE AMTS OF SNOW EXPECTED AT
ECG. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE AFTN AND THROUGH THE
EVENING AT SBY AND WL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT MON ESPECIALLY DURING
PERIODS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW. IFR CONDS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT AT PHF/ORF/ECG, MAINLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AND
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

DRY AND MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR PCPN LATE IN THE WEEK MAINLY ON THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WATCH HEADLINE HAS BEEN CONVERTED TO SMALL CARFT ADVY THROUGH
WED, WITH GALE WARNING REMAINING IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. E-SE FLOW OVER THE WATERS WILL BACK TO THE E-NE EARLY THIS
MORNING AND EVENUALLT TO THE NW LATER TODAY. SFC LOW WILL
REDEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA CST LATE TODAY, AND WILL INTENSIFY AS
IT SLOWLY LIFTS NE INTO TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR GALES
CONTINUES OVER NORTHERN ZONES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RAPIDLY
DEEPENING SFC LOW. SCA`S OVER REMAINDR OF THE WATERS AS FLOW
BECOMES NW AND INCREASES TO 20-25KT. RAPID RAMP UP OF WINDS WILL
QUICKLY BUILD SEAS TO 6-9 FT SOUTH AND 8-10 FT NORTH, W/ AT LEAST
12 FT OUT 20NM OVR NRN CSTL WATERS. WAVES IN THE CHES BAY UP TO
5-6 FT LATE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING. NW FLOW AND LOW END SCA CONDS
LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO WED MORNING AS SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN
FM THE W. SUB-SCA CONDS THEN FOR WED NIGHT/THU.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT NIGHT/TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF STRONG NLY
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 1 TO
1.5 FT...POSSIBLY HIGHER...DURING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLES. SITES IN THE LOWER BAY WILL REACH
HIGHEST ASTRO TIDE WITH WATER LEVELS APPROACHING MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS AT SEWELLS POINT TONIGHT. FOR OCEAN CITY...MINOR
FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH NEW GUIDANCE INDICATING AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR MODERATE. HV GONE AHEAD WITH COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR
WORCESTER COUNTY INVOF OCEAN CITY FOR TNGT. THIS WILL GIVE THE DAY
CREW ONE MORE OPPORTUNITY TO PERUSE LATEST GUIDANCE AND EITHER GO
WITH ADVY OR UPGRADE TO WARNING LATER TODAY. ANOTHER PERIOD OF
HIGH ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOMALIES DROP
OFF TUE NGT/WED AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR MDZ021>025.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
     MDZ024-025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ080-081-087>090-092-093.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ048-049-061-062-068-069.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     VAZ091-094>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>634-654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MAM







000
FXUS61 KLWX 260858
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
358 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTH TODAY. THE LOW WILL RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OFF TO OUR NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM SWINGS THROUGH THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A RATHER VIGOROUS
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TRACKING EAST
ACROSS THE VA/NC BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION THIS
MORNING. COLD AIR HAS BEEN SLOW TO FILTER SOUTH OVERNIGHT. FREEZING
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RELEGATED MOSTLY ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE
AND POINTS JUST SOUTH. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS ENERGY TRANSFERS FROM THE CLIPPER
SYSTEM TO THE CAROLINA COAST A BIT LATER TODAY. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY
DRIVE THE COLD AIR SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.

PRECIPITATION FORECAST REMAINS CHALLENGING FOR THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
REGION. SNOW WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS FOR AREAS
WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE METRO AREAS. RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION. AS COLDER AIR SEEPS IN ON INCREASING
NORTHERLY WINDS...WE EXPECT RAIN TO MIX WITH AND EVENTUALLY CHANGE
TO SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SLIPPERY TRAVEL WILL LIKELY RESULT
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE DC METRO AREA.

AS THE CLIPPER LOW TRANSFERS TO THE COASTAL...A NORLUN TROUGH WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP AND THIS FEATURE WILL ENHANCE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES AT THAT POINT
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE AND
FALLING SNOW WILL LIKELY CAUSE TRAVEL DISRUPTION THIS EVENING.

ONCE THE COASTAL DEVELOPS IT WILL INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AND PULL AWAY
FROM THE REGION TONIGHT. EARLIER INDICATION OF MORE SIGNIFICANT WRAP
AROUND SNOWFALL ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR DOES NOT APPEAR
AS SIGNIFICANT. THREAT FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOW HAS DIMINISHED. HAVE
EXPANDED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES EAST THROUGH THE I-95 CORRIDOR
AND ALSO EXPANDED FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY. IMPACTS TO THIS
EVENING COMMUTE AND SOME INTO THE TUESDAY AM COMMUTE CAN BE
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
EARLY SNOW WILL PERSIST MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS AND SOME
UPSLOPE OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. THE COASTAL LOW WILL PULL AWAY
TO THE NORTH AND SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END DURING THE DAY. COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE 20S
OUT WEST WITH 30S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DROP WIND CHILLS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS OUT WEST TO THE
LOWER 20S EAST. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TUESDAY EVENING WILL
HEAD TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. A NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL
USHER IN DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS. A FEW UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT...BUT SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY...BRINGING DRY AND
COLD CONDITIONS. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A PERIOD OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH
THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY WITH DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS.
A STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND. WINTRY
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE. TIMING AND DETAILS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR TO IFR TO PERSIST MUCH OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH SNOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER AND RAIN MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO SNOW FROM BWI
TO MTN TO IAD TO DCA THROUGH THE DAY. A STEADY LIGHT SNOW IS
EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING. THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END
OVERNIGHT OR TUESDAY AM.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING
THIS TIME. A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW TO THE
TERMINALS LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS WINDS SHIFT INTO THE NORTH
THIS MORNING. WILL SEE INCREASING WINDS ON THE WATERS ALONG WITH
MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO SNOW LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. WINDS
WILL EVENTUALLY DIMINISH LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE
WATERS DURING THIS TIME. A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THURSDAY
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ004>006-
     011-013-014-503>508.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ003-501-
     502.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR MDZ016>018.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ025>027-
     029>031-039-040-051>054-501>508.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ028.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ037-038-050-055>057.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ505-506.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ050>053-
     055-501>504.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...BJL/KRW
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/KLW
MARINE...BJL/KLW







000
FXUS61 KLWX 260858
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
358 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTH TODAY. THE LOW WILL RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OFF TO OUR NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM SWINGS THROUGH THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A RATHER VIGOROUS
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TRACKING EAST
ACROSS THE VA/NC BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION THIS
MORNING. COLD AIR HAS BEEN SLOW TO FILTER SOUTH OVERNIGHT. FREEZING
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RELEGATED MOSTLY ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE
AND POINTS JUST SOUTH. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS ENERGY TRANSFERS FROM THE CLIPPER
SYSTEM TO THE CAROLINA COAST A BIT LATER TODAY. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY
DRIVE THE COLD AIR SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.

PRECIPITATION FORECAST REMAINS CHALLENGING FOR THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
REGION. SNOW WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS FOR AREAS
WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE METRO AREAS. RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION. AS COLDER AIR SEEPS IN ON INCREASING
NORTHERLY WINDS...WE EXPECT RAIN TO MIX WITH AND EVENTUALLY CHANGE
TO SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SLIPPERY TRAVEL WILL LIKELY RESULT
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE DC METRO AREA.

AS THE CLIPPER LOW TRANSFERS TO THE COASTAL...A NORLUN TROUGH WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP AND THIS FEATURE WILL ENHANCE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES AT THAT POINT
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE AND
FALLING SNOW WILL LIKELY CAUSE TRAVEL DISRUPTION THIS EVENING.

ONCE THE COASTAL DEVELOPS IT WILL INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AND PULL AWAY
FROM THE REGION TONIGHT. EARLIER INDICATION OF MORE SIGNIFICANT WRAP
AROUND SNOWFALL ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR DOES NOT APPEAR
AS SIGNIFICANT. THREAT FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOW HAS DIMINISHED. HAVE
EXPANDED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES EAST THROUGH THE I-95 CORRIDOR
AND ALSO EXPANDED FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY. IMPACTS TO THIS
EVENING COMMUTE AND SOME INTO THE TUESDAY AM COMMUTE CAN BE
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
EARLY SNOW WILL PERSIST MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS AND SOME
UPSLOPE OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. THE COASTAL LOW WILL PULL AWAY
TO THE NORTH AND SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END DURING THE DAY. COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE 20S
OUT WEST WITH 30S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DROP WIND CHILLS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS OUT WEST TO THE
LOWER 20S EAST. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TUESDAY EVENING WILL
HEAD TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. A NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL
USHER IN DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS. A FEW UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT...BUT SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY...BRINGING DRY AND
COLD CONDITIONS. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A PERIOD OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH
THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY WITH DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS.
A STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND. WINTRY
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE. TIMING AND DETAILS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR TO IFR TO PERSIST MUCH OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH SNOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER AND RAIN MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO SNOW FROM BWI
TO MTN TO IAD TO DCA THROUGH THE DAY. A STEADY LIGHT SNOW IS
EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING. THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END
OVERNIGHT OR TUESDAY AM.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING
THIS TIME. A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW TO THE
TERMINALS LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS WINDS SHIFT INTO THE NORTH
THIS MORNING. WILL SEE INCREASING WINDS ON THE WATERS ALONG WITH
MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO SNOW LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. WINDS
WILL EVENTUALLY DIMINISH LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE
WATERS DURING THIS TIME. A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THURSDAY
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ004>006-
     011-013-014-503>508.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ003-501-
     502.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR MDZ016>018.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ025>027-
     029>031-039-040-051>054-501>508.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ028.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ037-038-050-055>057.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ505-506.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ050>053-
     055-501>504.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...BJL/KRW
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/KLW
MARINE...BJL/KLW








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 260632
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
132 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A NEW LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS MONDAY
MORNING...AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY THIS EVENING INDICATES A RATHER DYNAMIC
MID/UPPER SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS KY/TN...WITH THE UPPER PV MAX
DIVING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM EVEN
GENERATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER AL EARLIER THIS EVENING. A QUIET
EVENING IS OCCURRING LOCALLY WITH JUST A SLOW INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS
THE SYSTEM IS SLOW TO ADVANCE E. THE LATEST HIGH RES DATA (RAP/HRRR)
ALONG WITH THE 26/00Z NAM SUGGEST DEEP LIFT/UVM ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM REACHES THE ERN VA PIEDMONT AROUND 09-15Z. IT THEN WEAKENS
FROM 15-18Z AS THE MAIN ENERGY TRANSFERS TO THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW
OFF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. GIVEN THIS...LIKELY POPS WILL BE FORECAST
MAINLY W OF I-95 LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO FAR NRN PORTIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
THE LATEST DATA DOES SUGGEST HIGHER QPF WITH THE INITIAL RAIN LATE
TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...BUT STILL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE 0.30" OR LESS.
LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S /ABOVE FREEZING ALL AREAS SO NO P-TYPE
CONCERNS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MD ERN SHORE MON
NIGHT INTO TUE...

FAVORING A BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM/ECMWF AND 15Z SREF THIS
PERIOD. HAVE NOTED 12Z GFS HAS A SPURIOUS LOOKING BULLSEYE OF QPF
OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA WEST OF THE BAY MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE. THE
06Z GFS HAD THIS AS WELL (ALTHOUGH A BIT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH). OF
NOTE...THE 26/00Z NAM AS WELL AS THE 25/18Z GFS BOTH INDICATE A
SECONDARY ZONE OF DEFORMATION AND BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS BACK OVER
CENTRAL VA MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH HAS COULD COMPLICATE THE SNOW
FORECAST.

FOR MON...THE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSFER TO THE OFFSHORE SFC
LOW AND MUCH OF THE AKQ CWA WILL BE IN SORT OF A LULL WITH FAIRLY
WEAK LIFT DESPITE MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES. STILL HAVE LIKELY POPS ACRS
THE NORTH AND CHC POPS SOUTH ON MON...JUST DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF QPF. HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RAISED A FEW MORE DEGREES
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...INTO THE MID 50S IN NE NC...TO THE LOWER
40S OVER THE FAR NORTHERN TIER. WE WENT CLOSER TO THE MET NUMBERS
DUE TO A LACK OF FAITH IN THE GFS MODEL THIS CYCLE.

THE MAIN EVENT FOR OUR AREA BEGINS MON NIGHT...AS COLDER AIR
PLUNGES SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SFC LOW
OFF THE VA COAST. STILL MAINLY RAIN ACRS THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE
CWA IN THE EVENING...BECOMING ALL SNOW BETWEEN 03-06Z FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. DURING THIS TIME...BEST LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS WILL RESIDE
OFF THE COAST. WILL BE RELYING ON DEFORMATION ZONE AND INTENSE
BANDING DEVELOPING FROM THE DELMARVA TO LOG ISLAND TO "WRAP
AROUND" AND DROP SOUTH FOR MOST OF OUR SNOW INTO THE DAY TUE.
THUS...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL SHOW A SHARP CUTOFF. ANY CHANGE IN
POSITION OF THIS BANDING CAN HAVE DRASTIC EFFECTS ON SNOW
AMOUNTS...SO UNCERTAINTY REMAINS RATHER HIGH. HAVE FORECAST
ROUGHLY 3-6" OF SNOW ON THE MD ERN SHORE IN THE WATCH AREA...WITH
2-3" ACRS NRN NECK/VA ERN SHORE (AREAS THAT WILL PROBABLY NEED AN
ADVISORY)...TAPERED FAIRLY QUICK TO < 1" OVER MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA. COULD SEE SLIGHTLY MORE THAN 1" ACRS HAMPTON ROADS EARLY
TUE HOWEVER.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF LATE TUE MORNING/AFTN...BUT IF ECMWF
IS CORRECT THIS WOULD BE SLOWER AND ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS MAY
NEED TO BE ADDED. MAV/MET GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO WARM TUE...ESPECIALLY
ACRS THE NE. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LWR 30S NE TO AROUND 40 F SW.
CLEARING/COLD TUE NIGHT/WED WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID
20S AND HIGHS ON WED IN LWR 40S SW TO THE LWR 30S NE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH DRY WX MOST
DAYS. FOR WED NIGHT...SFC HI PRES BLDS OVR THE MID ATLANTIC AND SE
STATES AS THE NEXT LO PRES SYSTM APPROACHES FM THE W. WITH A MSTLY
CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S IN MOST
SPOTS. LO PRES AND AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL VORT MAX WILL BRING
PRECIP (PLAIN RAIN) INTO THE AREA STARTING LATE THU. FAVORED THE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION...WITH A 30% CHANCE OF PRECIP (RA/SN
NORTH AND RA SOUTH) THU NIGHT...WITH LO TEMPS IN THE LO TO MID 30S.
CONDS THEN DRY OUT INTO FRI AND SAT AS SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W.
EXPECT A PRTLY CLOUDY SKY BOTH DAYS WITH NW WINDS AND HI TEMPS
FALLING FM THE 40S ON FRI TO THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY MORNING. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SLOWLY INCREASE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH CLOUD BASES LOWERING LATER THIS
MORNING...FIRST OVER RIC/SBY THROUGH 15Z...THEN BY LATE
MORNING/AFTN OVER PHF/ORF/ECG. LIGHT RAIN IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
MAINLY AT RIC THIS MORNING...WITH VCSH WORDING AT SBY BY LATE
MORNING. BLENDED CURRENT POPS WITH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE FOR
STARTING TIMES OF PCPN. CIGS AND VSBYS LOWER TO MVFR AND IN SOME
CASES IFR DURING THE AFTN EXCEPT AT ECG. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS FOR
THIS TAF PERIOD AND BEYOND APPEAR TO BE LINING UP FOR SBY WHERE NE
WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME GUSTY.

OUTLOOK...RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS
MONDAY INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY (02-06Z/TUESDAY) AND
CONTINUES TROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES AT
SBY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WHERE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALLIS
CURRENTLY FORECAST. ELSEWHERE, A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED AT RIC/PHF/ORF WITH ONLY A TRACE AMTS OF SNOW EXPECTED AT
ECG. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE AFTN AND THROUGH THE
EVENING AT SBY AND WL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT MON ESPECIALLY DURING
PERIODS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW. IFR CONDS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT AT PHF/ORF/ECG, MAINLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AND
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

DRY AND MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR PCPN LATE IN THE WEEK MAINLY ON THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
HEADLINES HAVE BEEN HOISTED OVR ALL WTRS FOR THE UPCOMING STRONG
CSTL LO. FOR TNGT...10-15 KT SE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE E AS
SFC LO PRES APPROACHES FM THE W. THE LO WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE
CAROLINA CST ON MON...AND STRENGTHEN AS IT SLOWLY ADVANCES NEWRD
INTO MON NIGHT. A GALE WARNG HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CSTL WTRS N OF
PARRAMORE ISLAND WHERE CONFIDENCE FOR 34+ KT WINDS IS HI ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LO. FOR THE REMAINDER CSTL WTRS AND THE BAY...WITH THIS
BEING 3RD PERIOD AND STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY...WENT AHEAD WITH A GALE
WATCH FOR NOW AND WILL BE CONVERTED TO EITHER A GALE WARNG OR SCA IN
FUTURE UPDATES. OTWS...WENT WITH A SCA FOR THE SOUND AND RIVERS.
ANOTHER THING OF NOTE IS SEAS WITH THIS EVENT...EXPECTED TO RISE TO
AT LEAST 12 FT OUT 20NM OVR NRN CSTL WTRS. WAVES OVR THE BAY UP TO
5-6 FT. NW FLOW AND MARGINAL SCA CONDS MAY CONTINUE INTO TUE
NIGHT/WED AS SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W. SUB-SCA CONDS THEN
FOR WED NIGHT/THU.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF STRONG NLY
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 1 TO
1.5 FT...POSSIBLY HIGHER...DURING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLES. SITES IN THE LOWER BAY WILL REACH
HIGHEST ASTRO TIDE WITH WATER LEVELS APPROACHING MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS AT SEWELLS POINT MONDAY NIGHT. FOR OCEAN CITY...MINOR
FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR MODERATE AS
WELL...BUT NOT HIGH ENUF LIKELIHOOD TO ISSUE ANY WATCH/WARNING ATTM
WITH THIS STILL THREE HIGH TIDE CYCLES OUT. WILL RE-EVALUATE TNGT.
HIGH ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TUES...BEFORE ANOMALIES DROP OFF
LATE TUES INTO TUES NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633.
     GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/LKB
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...MAM/LSA
MARINE...MAS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 260632
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
132 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A NEW LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS MONDAY
MORNING...AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY THIS EVENING INDICATES A RATHER DYNAMIC
MID/UPPER SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS KY/TN...WITH THE UPPER PV MAX
DIVING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM EVEN
GENERATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER AL EARLIER THIS EVENING. A QUIET
EVENING IS OCCURRING LOCALLY WITH JUST A SLOW INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS
THE SYSTEM IS SLOW TO ADVANCE E. THE LATEST HIGH RES DATA (RAP/HRRR)
ALONG WITH THE 26/00Z NAM SUGGEST DEEP LIFT/UVM ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM REACHES THE ERN VA PIEDMONT AROUND 09-15Z. IT THEN WEAKENS
FROM 15-18Z AS THE MAIN ENERGY TRANSFERS TO THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW
OFF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. GIVEN THIS...LIKELY POPS WILL BE FORECAST
MAINLY W OF I-95 LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO FAR NRN PORTIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
THE LATEST DATA DOES SUGGEST HIGHER QPF WITH THE INITIAL RAIN LATE
TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...BUT STILL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE 0.30" OR LESS.
LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S /ABOVE FREEZING ALL AREAS SO NO P-TYPE
CONCERNS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MD ERN SHORE MON
NIGHT INTO TUE...

FAVORING A BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM/ECMWF AND 15Z SREF THIS
PERIOD. HAVE NOTED 12Z GFS HAS A SPURIOUS LOOKING BULLSEYE OF QPF
OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA WEST OF THE BAY MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE. THE
06Z GFS HAD THIS AS WELL (ALTHOUGH A BIT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH). OF
NOTE...THE 26/00Z NAM AS WELL AS THE 25/18Z GFS BOTH INDICATE A
SECONDARY ZONE OF DEFORMATION AND BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS BACK OVER
CENTRAL VA MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH HAS COULD COMPLICATE THE SNOW
FORECAST.

FOR MON...THE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSFER TO THE OFFSHORE SFC
LOW AND MUCH OF THE AKQ CWA WILL BE IN SORT OF A LULL WITH FAIRLY
WEAK LIFT DESPITE MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES. STILL HAVE LIKELY POPS ACRS
THE NORTH AND CHC POPS SOUTH ON MON...JUST DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF QPF. HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RAISED A FEW MORE DEGREES
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...INTO THE MID 50S IN NE NC...TO THE LOWER
40S OVER THE FAR NORTHERN TIER. WE WENT CLOSER TO THE MET NUMBERS
DUE TO A LACK OF FAITH IN THE GFS MODEL THIS CYCLE.

THE MAIN EVENT FOR OUR AREA BEGINS MON NIGHT...AS COLDER AIR
PLUNGES SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SFC LOW
OFF THE VA COAST. STILL MAINLY RAIN ACRS THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE
CWA IN THE EVENING...BECOMING ALL SNOW BETWEEN 03-06Z FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. DURING THIS TIME...BEST LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS WILL RESIDE
OFF THE COAST. WILL BE RELYING ON DEFORMATION ZONE AND INTENSE
BANDING DEVELOPING FROM THE DELMARVA TO LOG ISLAND TO "WRAP
AROUND" AND DROP SOUTH FOR MOST OF OUR SNOW INTO THE DAY TUE.
THUS...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL SHOW A SHARP CUTOFF. ANY CHANGE IN
POSITION OF THIS BANDING CAN HAVE DRASTIC EFFECTS ON SNOW
AMOUNTS...SO UNCERTAINTY REMAINS RATHER HIGH. HAVE FORECAST
ROUGHLY 3-6" OF SNOW ON THE MD ERN SHORE IN THE WATCH AREA...WITH
2-3" ACRS NRN NECK/VA ERN SHORE (AREAS THAT WILL PROBABLY NEED AN
ADVISORY)...TAPERED FAIRLY QUICK TO < 1" OVER MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA. COULD SEE SLIGHTLY MORE THAN 1" ACRS HAMPTON ROADS EARLY
TUE HOWEVER.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF LATE TUE MORNING/AFTN...BUT IF ECMWF
IS CORRECT THIS WOULD BE SLOWER AND ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS MAY
NEED TO BE ADDED. MAV/MET GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO WARM TUE...ESPECIALLY
ACRS THE NE. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LWR 30S NE TO AROUND 40 F SW.
CLEARING/COLD TUE NIGHT/WED WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID
20S AND HIGHS ON WED IN LWR 40S SW TO THE LWR 30S NE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH DRY WX MOST
DAYS. FOR WED NIGHT...SFC HI PRES BLDS OVR THE MID ATLANTIC AND SE
STATES AS THE NEXT LO PRES SYSTM APPROACHES FM THE W. WITH A MSTLY
CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S IN MOST
SPOTS. LO PRES AND AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL VORT MAX WILL BRING
PRECIP (PLAIN RAIN) INTO THE AREA STARTING LATE THU. FAVORED THE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION...WITH A 30% CHANCE OF PRECIP (RA/SN
NORTH AND RA SOUTH) THU NIGHT...WITH LO TEMPS IN THE LO TO MID 30S.
CONDS THEN DRY OUT INTO FRI AND SAT AS SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W.
EXPECT A PRTLY CLOUDY SKY BOTH DAYS WITH NW WINDS AND HI TEMPS
FALLING FM THE 40S ON FRI TO THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY MORNING. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SLOWLY INCREASE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH CLOUD BASES LOWERING LATER THIS
MORNING...FIRST OVER RIC/SBY THROUGH 15Z...THEN BY LATE
MORNING/AFTN OVER PHF/ORF/ECG. LIGHT RAIN IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
MAINLY AT RIC THIS MORNING...WITH VCSH WORDING AT SBY BY LATE
MORNING. BLENDED CURRENT POPS WITH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE FOR
STARTING TIMES OF PCPN. CIGS AND VSBYS LOWER TO MVFR AND IN SOME
CASES IFR DURING THE AFTN EXCEPT AT ECG. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS FOR
THIS TAF PERIOD AND BEYOND APPEAR TO BE LINING UP FOR SBY WHERE NE
WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME GUSTY.

OUTLOOK...RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS
MONDAY INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY (02-06Z/TUESDAY) AND
CONTINUES TROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES AT
SBY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WHERE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALLIS
CURRENTLY FORECAST. ELSEWHERE, A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED AT RIC/PHF/ORF WITH ONLY A TRACE AMTS OF SNOW EXPECTED AT
ECG. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE AFTN AND THROUGH THE
EVENING AT SBY AND WL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT MON ESPECIALLY DURING
PERIODS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW. IFR CONDS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT AT PHF/ORF/ECG, MAINLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AND
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

DRY AND MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR PCPN LATE IN THE WEEK MAINLY ON THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
HEADLINES HAVE BEEN HOISTED OVR ALL WTRS FOR THE UPCOMING STRONG
CSTL LO. FOR TNGT...10-15 KT SE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE E AS
SFC LO PRES APPROACHES FM THE W. THE LO WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE
CAROLINA CST ON MON...AND STRENGTHEN AS IT SLOWLY ADVANCES NEWRD
INTO MON NIGHT. A GALE WARNG HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CSTL WTRS N OF
PARRAMORE ISLAND WHERE CONFIDENCE FOR 34+ KT WINDS IS HI ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LO. FOR THE REMAINDER CSTL WTRS AND THE BAY...WITH THIS
BEING 3RD PERIOD AND STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY...WENT AHEAD WITH A GALE
WATCH FOR NOW AND WILL BE CONVERTED TO EITHER A GALE WARNG OR SCA IN
FUTURE UPDATES. OTWS...WENT WITH A SCA FOR THE SOUND AND RIVERS.
ANOTHER THING OF NOTE IS SEAS WITH THIS EVENT...EXPECTED TO RISE TO
AT LEAST 12 FT OUT 20NM OVR NRN CSTL WTRS. WAVES OVR THE BAY UP TO
5-6 FT. NW FLOW AND MARGINAL SCA CONDS MAY CONTINUE INTO TUE
NIGHT/WED AS SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W. SUB-SCA CONDS THEN
FOR WED NIGHT/THU.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF STRONG NLY
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 1 TO
1.5 FT...POSSIBLY HIGHER...DURING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLES. SITES IN THE LOWER BAY WILL REACH
HIGHEST ASTRO TIDE WITH WATER LEVELS APPROACHING MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS AT SEWELLS POINT MONDAY NIGHT. FOR OCEAN CITY...MINOR
FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR MODERATE AS
WELL...BUT NOT HIGH ENUF LIKELIHOOD TO ISSUE ANY WATCH/WARNING ATTM
WITH THIS STILL THREE HIGH TIDE CYCLES OUT. WILL RE-EVALUATE TNGT.
HIGH ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TUES...BEFORE ANOMALIES DROP OFF
LATE TUES INTO TUES NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633.
     GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/LKB
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...MAM/LSA
MARINE...MAS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KRNK 260459
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1159 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER KENTUCKY WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF
SNOW AND RAIN TO MUCH OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD FOLLOW THIS FEATURE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 955 PM EST SUNDAY...

MSAS ANALYSIS HAD THE SURFACE LOW IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY AT 9PM/02Z.
CLOUD BASES WERE LOWERING AND THE AIR MASS WAS GRADUALLY
SATURATING BUT ONLY PRECIPITATION WAS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTY
WARNING AREA UP TO THIS POINT. HAVE ADJUSTED THE TIMING FOR THE
ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN UNTIL AFTER 05Z/MIDNIGHT BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS AND THE LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. ALSO ADJUSTED
MINIMUMTEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES. DO NOT EXPECT MOST
LOCATIONS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S UNTIL AROUND 6AM/11Z.

AS THIS COLD POOL BEGINS TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS TOWARD MONDAY
MORNING...MODELS SUGGEST AN ENHANCED AREA OF LIFT IN THE WARM
ADVECTION/DIFFLUENT AXIS JUST EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW WHEN ENERGY
TRANSFER BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE. THIS POSSIBLE AREA OF HEAVIER
PRECIP OF CONCERN IN CAUSING ADDED COLUMN/BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING
WHICH COULD LEAD TO A FEW HOURS OF SNOW ESPCLY GREENBRIER EAST
ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS INTO THE SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY LATE.
SINCE CONSENSUS OF MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS AND HAVE TRENDED
COLDER...UPPING AMOUNTS FOR QUICK BURST OF WET SNOW BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY BUT TRICKY AS IF PRECIP IS LIGHTER THEN MAY ONLY BE RAIN
OUTSIDE THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. SINCE CORRIDOR LOOKS TO FOCUS
ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR AND RIGHT AROUND RUSH HOUR...PLAN TO HOIST
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A FEW COUNTIES ACROSS THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT INTO MIDDAY MONDAY FOR 1-4 INCHES OF WET SNOW. IF THINGS
ORGANIZE MORE THEN COULD SEE HEADLINES NEEDED FARTHER SOUTH INTO
CRAIG/BOTETOURT CTYS AND EAST TO AMHERST BUT TOO IFFY TO INCLUDE
FOR NOW.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECTING PERHAPS A MIX TO SNOW AT TIMES SOUTH INTO THE
ROANOKE/NEW RIVER VALLEYS AND POINTS WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT WITH MUCH
LESS ACCUMULATION AT THIS POINT. MAY SEE AN INCH OR TWO NW NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS BUT STAYING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THERE. OTHERWISE
SHOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN FROM LYH TO BEDFORD TO MTV TO UKF AND POINTS EAST
THROUGH MORNING. HIGHEST CATEGORICAL POPS MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY
460 WITH LIKELYS CENTRAL SECTIONS AND OVERALL CHANCE COVERAGE SOUTH.
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 30S EXCEPT CLOSER TO 30 HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVER THE
NORTH AND POSSIBLY STAYING AROUND 40 SOUTH WHERE CLOUDS MAY TEND TO
LOCK IN WARMTH FROM THIS AFTERNOON.

COASTAL LOW QUICKLY DEEPENS AND TAKES MUCH OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE
NORTH/EAST BY MIDDAY MONDAY WITH A QUICK PUNCH OF COLD ADVECTION
WRAPPING INTO THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE AGAIN SUGGESTING
THAT DURING THIS TRANSITION THAT RAIN/SNOW MAY STILL LINGER OVER THE
WEST UNDER THE PASSAGE OF THE 5H LOW DURING THE MORNING. THIS WOULD BE
ENOUGH ESPCLY GIVEN COOLING ALOFT OVERTOP THE ONSET OF LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION TO PRODUCE ADDED SNOWFALL OVER THE NW BEFORE AFTERNOON DRYING
OCCURS AND SOME DEGREE OF UPSLOPE KICKS IN. HOWEVER STILL APPEARS MAY
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE EVEN IN THE EAST UNDER THE PHASING SYSTEM TO PRODUCE
CONTINUED SPOTTY -RA SO ALTHOUGH EXPECT POPS TO STEADILY DECREASE BY
AFTERNOON...LEAVING IN SOME LINGERING CHANCE COVERAGE WITH LOW LIKELYS
FAR WESTERN SLOPES. SURGE OF COLD AIR ALONG WITH DECENT PRESSURE RISES
SUGGESTS INCREASING NW WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS PERHAPS
JUST BELOW ADVISORY NW NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND QUITE BLUSTERY
ELSEWHERE. KEPT HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 30S NW TO 40-45 BLUE RIDGE AND
UPPER 40S SE PENDING THE DEGREE OF CLOUDS/PRECIP MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM EST SUNDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION WITH NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING
ACROSS THE AREA. EMBEDDED WITHIN THAT FLOW WILL BE RESIDUAL MOISTURE
WITH AT LEAST LAKE ERIE ORIGINS...AND PERHAPS LAKE MICHIGAN. EXPECT
TO SEE A UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE PREFERRED AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH
CAROLINA. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS WESTERN
GREENBRIER COUNTY WHERE TWO TO THREE MORE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.
ELSEWHERE...WHERE MEASURABLE SNOW OCCURS...AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY
BE LESS THAN AN INCH. RESIDUAL ISOLATED...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...RESIDUAL LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. NO
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED. THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE ON THE GUSTY SIDE. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE
GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE MONDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY SLOWER
GUSTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY.

LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND ALLOWS SURFACE WINDS TO TURN SOUTHWEST. NO PRECIPITATION
IS FORECAST...BUT CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN
ADVANCE OUR NEXT GREAT LAKES CLIPPER SYSTEM.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL TREND
FROM BEING A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TO NEAR OR SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST SATURDAY...

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE GOING BACK TO SPLIT FLOW FOR THE
EXTENDED WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA DOMINATING THE
SOUTHERN STREAM...AND A WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROF FOR THE NORTHERN
STREAM. GFS IS LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WHICH GIVES
IT A WARMER LOOK THAN THE ECMWF.

WE WILL SEE A NORTHERN STREAM LOW MOVE BY TO OUR NORTH ON THURSDAY
WHICH WILL BRING US A CHANCE OF LIGHT SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION WHICH
LOOKS TO BE MIX TO RAIN FOR THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN SWING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING WHICH SETS THE STAGE
FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE WINDS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LOOK QUITE BLUSTERY RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND FORMS A
BIT OF A WEDGE WITH QUIET WEATHER FOR FOR SATURDAY. EURO WANTS TO
BRING A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY.
GFS IS NOT ON BOARD WITH THIS AND ENSEMBLES WERE NOT INDICATING A
MAJOR ARCTIC OUTBREAK. WILL BE LEANING MORE TOWARD THE GFS/ENSEMBLE
SOLUTION AND KEEP TEMPS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT A GOOD 20F WARMER
THAN THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1155 PM EST SUNDAY...

CEILINGS WERE VFR BUT LOWERING OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
CEILINGS WILL QUICKLY LOWER TO IFR AS THE RAIN ARRIVES FROM WEST
TO EAST BETWEEN 09Z/4AM AND 11/6AM. THERE MAY BE SNOW MIXED IN THE
WITH RAIN AT KBLF AND KLWB FOR A COUPLE HOURS IN THE MORNING BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM KENTUCKY DIRECTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA. AS THE LOW PROGRESSES OFFSHORE AND WINDS COME AROUND TO
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST...MUCH COLDER AIR COMES INTO THE REGION.
RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 21Z/4PM. LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KLWB. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY AFTER 00Z AT ALL TAF SITES AS THE LOW DEEPENS
OFFSHORE.

EXPECT CEILINGS TO COME UP A BIT MONDAY AFTERNOON EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...BUT REMAIN BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR IN THE FAVORED UPSLOPE
AREAS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ON TUESDAY. MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY ACROSS BLF/LWB AND PERHAPS EVEN BCB DUE TO
SCATTERED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS. EASTERN TAF LOCATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE A
QUIET DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TAF LOCATIONS. ANOTHER
CLIPPER SYSTEM ARRIVES ON THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CEILINGS AND VSBYS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
HINTON ALL HAZARDS RADIO...162.425MHZ IS OFF THE AIR. THERE IS NO
ESTIMATE FOR RETURN TO SERVICE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY FOR VAZ019-020-
     024.
NC...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY FOR WVZ507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...AMS/JH
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...AMS/CF
EQUIPMENT...AMS



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 260340
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1040 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A NEW LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS MONDAY
MORNING...AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY THIS EVENING INDICATES A RATHER DYNAMIC
MID/UPPER SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS KY/TN...WITH THE UPPER PV MAX
DIVING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM EVEN
GENERATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER AL EARLIER THIS EVENING. A QUIET
EVENING IS OCCURRING LOCALLY WITH JUST A SLOW INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS
THE SYSTEM IS SLOW TO ADVANCE E. THE LATEST HIGH RES DATA (RAP/HRRR)
ALONG WITH THE 26/00Z NAM SUGGEST DEEP LIFT/UVM ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM REACHES THE ERN VA PIEDMONT AROUND 09-15Z. IT THEN WEAKENS
FROM 15-18Z AS THE MAIN ENERGY TRANSFERS TO THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW
OFF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. GIVEN THIS...LIKELY POPS WILL BE FORECAST
MAINLY W OF I-95 LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO FAR NRN PORTIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
THE LATEST DATA DOES SUGGEST HIGHER QPF WITH THE INITIAL RAIN LATE
TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...BUT STILL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE 0.30" OR LESS.
LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S /ABOVE FREEZING ALL AREAS SO NO P-TYPE
CONCERNS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MD ERN SHORE MON
NIGHT INTO TUE...

FAVORING A BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM/ECMWF AND 15Z SREF THIS
PERIOD. HAVE NOTED 12Z GFS HAS A SPURIOUS LOOKING BULLSEYE OF QPF
OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA WEST OF THE BAY MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE. THE
06Z GFS HAD THIS AS WELL (ALTHOUGH A BIT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH). OF
NOTE...THE 26/00Z NAM AS WELL AS THE 25/18Z GFS BOTH INDICATE A
SECONDARY ZONE OF DEFORMATION AND BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS BACK OVER
CENTRAL VA MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH HAS COULD COMPLICATE THE SNOW
FORECAST.

FOR MON...THE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSFER TO THE OFFSHORE SFC
LOW AND MUCH OF THE AKQ CWA WILL BE IN SORT OF A LULL WITH FAIRLY
WEAK LIFT DESPITE MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES. STILL HAVE LIKELY POPS ACRS
THE NORTH AND CHC POPS SOUTH ON MON...JUST DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF QPF. HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RAISED A FEW MORE DEGREES
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...INTO THE MID 50S IN NE NC...TO THE LOWER
40S OVER THE FAR NORTHERN TIER. WE WENT CLOSER TO THE MET NUMBERS
DUE TO A LACK OF FAITH IN THE GFS MODEL THIS CYCLE.

THE MAIN EVENT FOR OUR AREA BEGINS MON NIGHT...AS COLDER AIR
PLUNGES SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SFC LOW
OFF THE VA COAST. STILL MAINLY RAIN ACRS THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE
CWA IN THE EVENING...BECOMING ALL SNOW BETWEEN 03-06Z FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. DURING THIS TIME...BEST LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS WILL RESIDE
OFF THE COAST. WILL BE RELYING ON DEFORMATION ZONE AND INTENSE
BANDING DEVELOPING FROM THE DELMARVA TO LOG ISLAND TO "WRAP
AROUND" AND DROP SOUTH FOR MOST OF OUR SNOW INTO THE DAY TUE.
THUS...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL SHOW A SHARP CUTOFF. ANY CHANGE IN
POSITION OF THIS BANDING CAN HAVE DRASTIC EFFECTS ON SNOW
AMOUNTS...SO UNCERTAINTY REMAINS RATHER HIGH. HAVE FORECAST
ROUGHLY 3-6" OF SNOW ON THE MD ERN SHORE IN THE WATCH AREA...WITH
2-3" ACRS NRN NECK/VA ERN SHORE (AREAS THAT WILL PROBABLY NEED AN
ADVISORY)...TAPERED FAIRLY QUICK TO < 1" OVER MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA. COULD SEE SLIGHTLY MORE THAN 1" ACRS HAMPTON ROADS EARLY
TUE HOWEVER.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF LATE TUE MORNING/AFTN...BUT IF ECMWF
IS CORRECT THIS WOULD BE SLOWER AND ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS MAY
NEED TO BE ADDED. MAV/MET GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO WARM TUE...ESPECIALLY
ACRS THE NE. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LWR 30S NE TO AROUND 40 F SW.
CLEARING/COLD TUE NIGHT/WED WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID
20S AND HIGHS ON WED IN LWR 40S SW TO THE LWR 30S NE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH DRY WX MOST
DAYS. FOR WED NIGHT...SFC HI PRES BLDS OVR THE MID ATLANTIC AND SE
STATES AS THE NEXT LO PRES SYSTM APPROACHES FM THE W. WITH A MSTLY
CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S IN MOST
SPOTS. LO PRES AND AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL VORT MAX WILL BRING
PRECIP (PLAIN RAIN) INTO THE AREA STARTING LATE THU. FAVORED THE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION...WITH A 30% CHANCE OF PRECIP (RA/SN
NORTH AND RA SOUTH) THU NIGHT...WITH LO TEMPS IN THE LO TO MID 30S.
CONDS THEN DRY OUT INTO FRI AND SAT AS SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W.
EXPECT A PRTLY CLOUDY SKY BOTH DAYS WITH NW WINDS AND HI TEMPS
FALLING FM THE 40S ON FRI TO THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY
MORNING AND THEN MOVES NORTHEAST OFF THE COAST THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WHILE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST FOR MID WEEK.

AS OF 23Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING. MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SLOWLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUD BASES
LOWERING MONDAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. LIGHT RAIN IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AREAS. BLENDED CURRENT POPS WITH SOME
OF THE GUIDANCE FOR STARTING TIMES OF PCPN. CIGS AND VSBYS LOWER TO
MVFR AND IN SOME CASES IFR DURING THE AFTN EXCEPT AT ECG. THE LOWEST
CONDITIONS FOR THIS TAF PERIOD AND BEYOND APPEAR TO BE LINING UP FOR
SBY WHERE NE WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME GUSTY.

OUTLOOK...RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
TUESDAY AND CONTINUES DURING THE DAY. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES AT
SBY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WHERE 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST. SNOWFALL ELSEWHERE AN INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED AT PHF AND
ORF WITH ONLY A DUSTING PSBL AT ECG AND RIC. IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ESPECIALLY DURING PERIODS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW.

DRY AND MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR PCPN LATE IN THE WEEK MAINLY ON THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
HEADLINES HAVE BEEN HOISTED OVR ALL WTRS FOR THE UPCOMING STRONG
CSTL LO. FOR TNGT...10-15 KT SE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE E AS
SFC LO PRES APPROACHES FM THE W. THE LO WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE
CAROLINA CST ON MON...AND STRENGTHEN AS IT SLOWLY ADVANCES NEWRD
INTO MON NIGHT. A GALE WARNG HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CSTL WTRS N OF
PARRAMORE ISLAND WHERE CONFIDENCE FOR 34+ KT WINDS IS HI ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LO. FOR THE REMAINDER CSTL WTRS AND THE BAY...WITH THIS
BEING 3RD PERIOD AND STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY...WENT AHEAD WITH A GALE
WATCH FOR NOW AND WILL BE CONVERTED TO EITHER A GALE WARNG OR SCA IN
FUTURE UPDATES. OTWS...WENT WITH A SCA FOR THE SOUND AND RIVERS.
ANOTHER THING OF NOTE IS SEAS WITH THIS EVENT...EXPECTED TO RISE TO
AT LEAST 12 FT OUT 20NM OVR NRN CSTL WTRS. WAVES OVR THE BAY UP TO
5-6 FT. NW FLOW AND MARGINAL SCA CONDS MAY CONTINUE INTO TUE
NIGHT/WED AS SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W. SUB-SCA CONDS THEN
FOR WED NIGHT/THU.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF STRONG NLY
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 1 TO
1.5 FT...POSSIBLY HIGHER...DURING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLES. SITES IN THE LOWER BAY WILL REACH
HIGHEST ASTRO TIDE WITH WATER LEVELS APPROACHING MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS AT SEWELLS POINT MONDAY NIGHT. FOR OCEAN CITY...MINOR
FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR MODERATE AS
WELL...BUT NOT HIGH ENUF LIKELIHOOD TO ISSUE ANY WATCH/WARNING ATTM
WITH THIS STILL THREE HIGH TIDE CYCLES OUT. WILL RE-EVALUATE TNGT.
HIGH ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TUES...BEFORE ANOMALIES DROP OFF
LATE TUES INTO TUES NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ633.
     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/AJZ
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MAS





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 260340
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1040 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A NEW LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS MONDAY
MORNING...AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY THIS EVENING INDICATES A RATHER DYNAMIC
MID/UPPER SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS KY/TN...WITH THE UPPER PV MAX
DIVING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM EVEN
GENERATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER AL EARLIER THIS EVENING. A QUIET
EVENING IS OCCURRING LOCALLY WITH JUST A SLOW INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS
THE SYSTEM IS SLOW TO ADVANCE E. THE LATEST HIGH RES DATA (RAP/HRRR)
ALONG WITH THE 26/00Z NAM SUGGEST DEEP LIFT/UVM ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM REACHES THE ERN VA PIEDMONT AROUND 09-15Z. IT THEN WEAKENS
FROM 15-18Z AS THE MAIN ENERGY TRANSFERS TO THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW
OFF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. GIVEN THIS...LIKELY POPS WILL BE FORECAST
MAINLY W OF I-95 LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO FAR NRN PORTIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
THE LATEST DATA DOES SUGGEST HIGHER QPF WITH THE INITIAL RAIN LATE
TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...BUT STILL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE 0.30" OR LESS.
LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S /ABOVE FREEZING ALL AREAS SO NO P-TYPE
CONCERNS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MD ERN SHORE MON
NIGHT INTO TUE...

FAVORING A BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM/ECMWF AND 15Z SREF THIS
PERIOD. HAVE NOTED 12Z GFS HAS A SPURIOUS LOOKING BULLSEYE OF QPF
OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA WEST OF THE BAY MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE. THE
06Z GFS HAD THIS AS WELL (ALTHOUGH A BIT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH). OF
NOTE...THE 26/00Z NAM AS WELL AS THE 25/18Z GFS BOTH INDICATE A
SECONDARY ZONE OF DEFORMATION AND BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS BACK OVER
CENTRAL VA MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH HAS COULD COMPLICATE THE SNOW
FORECAST.

FOR MON...THE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSFER TO THE OFFSHORE SFC
LOW AND MUCH OF THE AKQ CWA WILL BE IN SORT OF A LULL WITH FAIRLY
WEAK LIFT DESPITE MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES. STILL HAVE LIKELY POPS ACRS
THE NORTH AND CHC POPS SOUTH ON MON...JUST DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF QPF. HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RAISED A FEW MORE DEGREES
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...INTO THE MID 50S IN NE NC...TO THE LOWER
40S OVER THE FAR NORTHERN TIER. WE WENT CLOSER TO THE MET NUMBERS
DUE TO A LACK OF FAITH IN THE GFS MODEL THIS CYCLE.

THE MAIN EVENT FOR OUR AREA BEGINS MON NIGHT...AS COLDER AIR
PLUNGES SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SFC LOW
OFF THE VA COAST. STILL MAINLY RAIN ACRS THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE
CWA IN THE EVENING...BECOMING ALL SNOW BETWEEN 03-06Z FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. DURING THIS TIME...BEST LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS WILL RESIDE
OFF THE COAST. WILL BE RELYING ON DEFORMATION ZONE AND INTENSE
BANDING DEVELOPING FROM THE DELMARVA TO LOG ISLAND TO "WRAP
AROUND" AND DROP SOUTH FOR MOST OF OUR SNOW INTO THE DAY TUE.
THUS...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL SHOW A SHARP CUTOFF. ANY CHANGE IN
POSITION OF THIS BANDING CAN HAVE DRASTIC EFFECTS ON SNOW
AMOUNTS...SO UNCERTAINTY REMAINS RATHER HIGH. HAVE FORECAST
ROUGHLY 3-6" OF SNOW ON THE MD ERN SHORE IN THE WATCH AREA...WITH
2-3" ACRS NRN NECK/VA ERN SHORE (AREAS THAT WILL PROBABLY NEED AN
ADVISORY)...TAPERED FAIRLY QUICK TO < 1" OVER MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA. COULD SEE SLIGHTLY MORE THAN 1" ACRS HAMPTON ROADS EARLY
TUE HOWEVER.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF LATE TUE MORNING/AFTN...BUT IF ECMWF
IS CORRECT THIS WOULD BE SLOWER AND ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS MAY
NEED TO BE ADDED. MAV/MET GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO WARM TUE...ESPECIALLY
ACRS THE NE. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LWR 30S NE TO AROUND 40 F SW.
CLEARING/COLD TUE NIGHT/WED WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID
20S AND HIGHS ON WED IN LWR 40S SW TO THE LWR 30S NE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH DRY WX MOST
DAYS. FOR WED NIGHT...SFC HI PRES BLDS OVR THE MID ATLANTIC AND SE
STATES AS THE NEXT LO PRES SYSTM APPROACHES FM THE W. WITH A MSTLY
CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S IN MOST
SPOTS. LO PRES AND AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL VORT MAX WILL BRING
PRECIP (PLAIN RAIN) INTO THE AREA STARTING LATE THU. FAVORED THE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION...WITH A 30% CHANCE OF PRECIP (RA/SN
NORTH AND RA SOUTH) THU NIGHT...WITH LO TEMPS IN THE LO TO MID 30S.
CONDS THEN DRY OUT INTO FRI AND SAT AS SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W.
EXPECT A PRTLY CLOUDY SKY BOTH DAYS WITH NW WINDS AND HI TEMPS
FALLING FM THE 40S ON FRI TO THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY
MORNING AND THEN MOVES NORTHEAST OFF THE COAST THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WHILE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST FOR MID WEEK.

AS OF 23Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING. MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SLOWLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUD BASES
LOWERING MONDAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. LIGHT RAIN IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AREAS. BLENDED CURRENT POPS WITH SOME
OF THE GUIDANCE FOR STARTING TIMES OF PCPN. CIGS AND VSBYS LOWER TO
MVFR AND IN SOME CASES IFR DURING THE AFTN EXCEPT AT ECG. THE LOWEST
CONDITIONS FOR THIS TAF PERIOD AND BEYOND APPEAR TO BE LINING UP FOR
SBY WHERE NE WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME GUSTY.

OUTLOOK...RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
TUESDAY AND CONTINUES DURING THE DAY. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES AT
SBY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WHERE 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST. SNOWFALL ELSEWHERE AN INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED AT PHF AND
ORF WITH ONLY A DUSTING PSBL AT ECG AND RIC. IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ESPECIALLY DURING PERIODS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW.

DRY AND MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR PCPN LATE IN THE WEEK MAINLY ON THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
HEADLINES HAVE BEEN HOISTED OVR ALL WTRS FOR THE UPCOMING STRONG
CSTL LO. FOR TNGT...10-15 KT SE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE E AS
SFC LO PRES APPROACHES FM THE W. THE LO WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE
CAROLINA CST ON MON...AND STRENGTHEN AS IT SLOWLY ADVANCES NEWRD
INTO MON NIGHT. A GALE WARNG HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CSTL WTRS N OF
PARRAMORE ISLAND WHERE CONFIDENCE FOR 34+ KT WINDS IS HI ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LO. FOR THE REMAINDER CSTL WTRS AND THE BAY...WITH THIS
BEING 3RD PERIOD AND STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY...WENT AHEAD WITH A GALE
WATCH FOR NOW AND WILL BE CONVERTED TO EITHER A GALE WARNG OR SCA IN
FUTURE UPDATES. OTWS...WENT WITH A SCA FOR THE SOUND AND RIVERS.
ANOTHER THING OF NOTE IS SEAS WITH THIS EVENT...EXPECTED TO RISE TO
AT LEAST 12 FT OUT 20NM OVR NRN CSTL WTRS. WAVES OVR THE BAY UP TO
5-6 FT. NW FLOW AND MARGINAL SCA CONDS MAY CONTINUE INTO TUE
NIGHT/WED AS SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W. SUB-SCA CONDS THEN
FOR WED NIGHT/THU.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF STRONG NLY
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 1 TO
1.5 FT...POSSIBLY HIGHER...DURING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLES. SITES IN THE LOWER BAY WILL REACH
HIGHEST ASTRO TIDE WITH WATER LEVELS APPROACHING MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS AT SEWELLS POINT MONDAY NIGHT. FOR OCEAN CITY...MINOR
FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR MODERATE AS
WELL...BUT NOT HIGH ENUF LIKELIHOOD TO ISSUE ANY WATCH/WARNING ATTM
WITH THIS STILL THREE HIGH TIDE CYCLES OUT. WILL RE-EVALUATE TNGT.
HIGH ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TUES...BEFORE ANOMALIES DROP OFF
LATE TUES INTO TUES NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ633.
     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/AJZ
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MAS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 260300
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1000 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER KENTUCKY WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF
SNOW AND RAIN TO MUCH OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD FOLLOW THIS FEATURE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 955 PM EST SUNDAY...

MSAS ANALYSIS HAD THE SURFACE LOW IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY AT 9PM/02Z.
CLOUD BASES WERE LOWERING AND THE AIR MASS WAS GRADUALLY
SATURATING BUT ONLY PRECIPITATION WAS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTY
WARNING AREA UP TO THIS POINT. HAVE ADJUSTED THE TIMING FOR THE
ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN UNTIL AFTER 05Z/MIDNIGHT BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS AND THE LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. ALSO ADJUSTED MINIUM
TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES. DO NOT EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO
DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S UNTIL AROUND 6AM/11Z.

AS THIS COLD POOL BEGINS TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS TOWARD MONDAY
MORNING...MODELS SUGGEST AN ENHANCED AREA OF LIFT IN THE WARM
ADVECTION/DIFFLUENT AXIS JUST EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW WHEN ENERGY
TRANSFER BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE. THIS POSSIBLE AREA OF HEAVIER
PRECIP OF CONCERN IN CAUSING ADDED COLUMN/BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING
WHICH COULD LEAD TO A FEW HOURS OF SNOW ESPCLY GREENBRIER EAST
ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS INTO THE SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY LATE.
SINCE CONSENSUS OF MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS AND HAVE TRENDED
COLDER...UPPING AMOUNTS FOR QUICK BURST OF WET SNOW BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY BUT TRICKY AS IF PRECIP IS LIGHTER THEN MAY ONLY BE RAIN
OUTSIDE THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. SINCE CORRIDOR LOOKS TO FOCUS
ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR AND RIGHT AROUND RUSH HOUR...PLAN TO HOIST
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A FEW COUNTIES ACROSS THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT INTO MIDDAY MONDAY FOR 1-4 INCHES OF WET SNOW. IF THINGS
ORGANIZE MORE THEN COULD SEE HEADLINES NEEDED FARTHER SOUTH INTO
CRAIG/BOTETOURT CTYS AND EAST TO AMHERST BUT TOO IFFY TO INCLUDE
FOR NOW.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECTING PERHAPS A MIX TO SNOW AT TIMES SOUTH INTO THE
ROANOKE/NEW RIVER VALLEYS AND POINTS WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT WITH MUCH
LESS ACCUMULATION AT THIS POINT. MAY SEE AN INCH OR TWO NW NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS BUT STAYING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THERE. OTHERWISE
SHOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN FROM LYH TO BEDFORD TO MTV TO UKF AND POINTS EAST
THROUGH MORNING. HIGHEST CATEGORICAL POPS MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY
460 WITH LIKELYS CENTRAL SECTIONS AND OVERALL CHANCE COVERAGE SOUTH.
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 30S EXCEPT CLOSER TO 30 HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVER THE
NORTH AND POSSIBLY STAYING AROUND 40 SOUTH WHERE CLOUDS MAY TEND TO
LOCK IN WARMTH FROM THIS AFTERNOON.

COASTAL LOW QUICKLY DEEPENS AND TAKES MUCH OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE
NORTH/EAST BY MIDDAY MONDAY WITH A QUICK PUNCH OF COLD ADVECTION
WRAPPING INTO THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE AGAIN SUGGESTING
THAT DURING THIS TRANSITION THAT RAIN/SNOW MAY STILL LINGER OVER THE
WEST UNDER THE PASSAGE OF THE 5H LOW DURING THE MORNING. THIS WOULD BE
ENOUGH ESPCLY GIVEN COOLING ALOFT OVERTOP THE ONSET OF LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION TO PRODUCE ADDED SNOWFALL OVER THE NW BEFORE AFTERNOON DRYING
OCCURS AND SOME DEGREE OF UPSLOPE KICKS IN. HOWEVER STILL APPEARS MAY
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE EVEN IN THE EAST UNDER THE PHASING SYSTEM TO PRODUCE
CONTINUED SPOTTY -RA SO ALTHOUGH EXPECT POPS TO STEADILY DECREASE BY
AFTERNOON...LEAVING IN SOME LINGERING CHANCE COVERAGE WITH LOW LIKELYS
FAR WESTERN SLOPES. SURGE OF COLD AIR ALONG WITH DECENT PRESSURE RISES
SUGGESTS INCREASING NW WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS PERHAPS
JUST BELOW ADVISORY NW NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND QUITE BLUSTERY
ELSEWHERE. KEPT HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 30S NW TO 40-45 BLUE RIDGE AND
UPPER 40S SE PENDING THE DEGREE OF CLOUDS/PRECIP MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM EST SUNDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION WITH NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING
ACROSS THE AREA. EMBEDDED WITHIN THAT FLOW WILL BE RESIDUAL MOISTURE
WITH AT LEAST LAKE ERIE ORIGINS...AND PERHAPS LAKE MICHIGAN. EXPECT
TO SEE A UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE PREFERRED AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH
CAROLINA. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS WESTERN
GREENBRIER COUNTY WHERE TWO TO THREE MORE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.
ELSEWHERE...WHERE MEASURABLE SNOW OCCURS...AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY
BE LESS THAN AN INCH. RESIDUAL ISOLATED...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...RESIDUAL LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. NO
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED. THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE ON THE GUSTY SIDE. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE
GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE MONDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY SLOWER
GUSTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY.

LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND ALLOWS SURFACE WINDS TO TURN SOUTHWEST. NO PRECIPITATION
IS FORECAST...BUT CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN
ADVANCE OUR NEXT GREAT LAKES CLIPPER SYSTEM.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL TREND
FROM BEING A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TO NEAR OR SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST SATURDAY...

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE GOING BACK TO SPLIT FLOW FOR THE
EXTENDED WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA DOMINATING THE
SOUTHERN STREAM...AND A WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROF FOR THE NORTHERN
STREAM. GFS IS LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WHICH GIVES
IT A WARMER LOOK THAN THE ECMWF.

WE WILL SEE A NORTHERN STREAM LOW MOVE BY TO OUR NORTH ON THURSDAY
WHICH WILL BRING US A CHANCE OF LIGHT SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION WHICH
LOOKS TO BE MIX TO RAIN FOR THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN SWING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING WHICH SETS THE STAGE
FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE WINDS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LOOK QUITE BLUSTERY RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND FORMS A
BIT OF A WEDGE WITH QUIET WEATHER FOR FOR SATURDAY. EURO WANTS TO
BRING A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY.
GFS IS NOT ON BOARD WITH THIS AND ENSEMBLES WERE NOT INDICATING A
MAJOR ARCTIC OUTBREAK. WILL BE LEANING MORE TOWARD THE GFS/ENSEMBLE
SOLUTION AND KEEP TEMPS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT A GOOD 20F WARMER
THAN THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM EST SUNDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS EVENING AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS. IR SAT
SHOWS SCT TO BKN MID AND UPPER CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE WEST. WINDS
HAVE ALREADY DIMINISHED TO BELOW 10KTS. CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES IN
OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. PRECIP WILL INITIALLY BE -RA AT BLF/LWB
AS EARLY AS 03Z AND EASTERN TAF LOCATIONS BETWEEN 06-09Z. EXPECT A
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AT BLF/LWB AFTER 06Z...WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW IN BCB AND ALL RAIN AT ROA/LYH/DAN. EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER TO
MVFR OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY IFR/LIFR BY AROUND DAYBREAK. AS THE
LOW SHIFTS EAST THE WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY
OVERNIGHT...AND THEN TO A MORE N/NW DIRECTION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE COAST. EXPECT CEILINGS TO COME UP A
BIT MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT REMAIN BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR THROUGH 00Z
TUESDAY.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ON TUESDAY. MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY ACROSS BLF/LWB AND PERHAPS EVEN BCB DUE TO
SCATTERED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS. EASTERN TAF LOCATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE A
QUIET DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TAF LOCATIONS. ANOTHER
CLIPPER SYSTEM ARRIVES ON THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CEILINGS AND VISBYS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
HINTON ALL HAZARDS RADIO...162.425MHZ IS OFF THE AIR. THERE IS NO
ESTIMATE FOR RETURN TO SERVICE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY FOR VAZ019-020-
     024.
NC...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY FOR WVZ507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...AMS/JH
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...CF
EQUIPMENT...AMS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 260300
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1000 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER KENTUCKY WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF
SNOW AND RAIN TO MUCH OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD FOLLOW THIS FEATURE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 955 PM EST SUNDAY...

MSAS ANALYSIS HAD THE SURFACE LOW IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY AT 9PM/02Z.
CLOUD BASES WERE LOWERING AND THE AIR MASS WAS GRADUALLY
SATURATING BUT ONLY PRECIPITATION WAS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTY
WARNING AREA UP TO THIS POINT. HAVE ADJUSTED THE TIMING FOR THE
ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN UNTIL AFTER 05Z/MIDNIGHT BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS AND THE LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. ALSO ADJUSTED MINIUM
TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES. DO NOT EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO
DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S UNTIL AROUND 6AM/11Z.

AS THIS COLD POOL BEGINS TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS TOWARD MONDAY
MORNING...MODELS SUGGEST AN ENHANCED AREA OF LIFT IN THE WARM
ADVECTION/DIFFLUENT AXIS JUST EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW WHEN ENERGY
TRANSFER BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE. THIS POSSIBLE AREA OF HEAVIER
PRECIP OF CONCERN IN CAUSING ADDED COLUMN/BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING
WHICH COULD LEAD TO A FEW HOURS OF SNOW ESPCLY GREENBRIER EAST
ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS INTO THE SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY LATE.
SINCE CONSENSUS OF MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS AND HAVE TRENDED
COLDER...UPPING AMOUNTS FOR QUICK BURST OF WET SNOW BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY BUT TRICKY AS IF PRECIP IS LIGHTER THEN MAY ONLY BE RAIN
OUTSIDE THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. SINCE CORRIDOR LOOKS TO FOCUS
ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR AND RIGHT AROUND RUSH HOUR...PLAN TO HOIST
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A FEW COUNTIES ACROSS THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT INTO MIDDAY MONDAY FOR 1-4 INCHES OF WET SNOW. IF THINGS
ORGANIZE MORE THEN COULD SEE HEADLINES NEEDED FARTHER SOUTH INTO
CRAIG/BOTETOURT CTYS AND EAST TO AMHERST BUT TOO IFFY TO INCLUDE
FOR NOW.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECTING PERHAPS A MIX TO SNOW AT TIMES SOUTH INTO THE
ROANOKE/NEW RIVER VALLEYS AND POINTS WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT WITH MUCH
LESS ACCUMULATION AT THIS POINT. MAY SEE AN INCH OR TWO NW NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS BUT STAYING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THERE. OTHERWISE
SHOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN FROM LYH TO BEDFORD TO MTV TO UKF AND POINTS EAST
THROUGH MORNING. HIGHEST CATEGORICAL POPS MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY
460 WITH LIKELYS CENTRAL SECTIONS AND OVERALL CHANCE COVERAGE SOUTH.
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 30S EXCEPT CLOSER TO 30 HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVER THE
NORTH AND POSSIBLY STAYING AROUND 40 SOUTH WHERE CLOUDS MAY TEND TO
LOCK IN WARMTH FROM THIS AFTERNOON.

COASTAL LOW QUICKLY DEEPENS AND TAKES MUCH OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE
NORTH/EAST BY MIDDAY MONDAY WITH A QUICK PUNCH OF COLD ADVECTION
WRAPPING INTO THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE AGAIN SUGGESTING
THAT DURING THIS TRANSITION THAT RAIN/SNOW MAY STILL LINGER OVER THE
WEST UNDER THE PASSAGE OF THE 5H LOW DURING THE MORNING. THIS WOULD BE
ENOUGH ESPCLY GIVEN COOLING ALOFT OVERTOP THE ONSET OF LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION TO PRODUCE ADDED SNOWFALL OVER THE NW BEFORE AFTERNOON DRYING
OCCURS AND SOME DEGREE OF UPSLOPE KICKS IN. HOWEVER STILL APPEARS MAY
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE EVEN IN THE EAST UNDER THE PHASING SYSTEM TO PRODUCE
CONTINUED SPOTTY -RA SO ALTHOUGH EXPECT POPS TO STEADILY DECREASE BY
AFTERNOON...LEAVING IN SOME LINGERING CHANCE COVERAGE WITH LOW LIKELYS
FAR WESTERN SLOPES. SURGE OF COLD AIR ALONG WITH DECENT PRESSURE RISES
SUGGESTS INCREASING NW WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS PERHAPS
JUST BELOW ADVISORY NW NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND QUITE BLUSTERY
ELSEWHERE. KEPT HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 30S NW TO 40-45 BLUE RIDGE AND
UPPER 40S SE PENDING THE DEGREE OF CLOUDS/PRECIP MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM EST SUNDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION WITH NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING
ACROSS THE AREA. EMBEDDED WITHIN THAT FLOW WILL BE RESIDUAL MOISTURE
WITH AT LEAST LAKE ERIE ORIGINS...AND PERHAPS LAKE MICHIGAN. EXPECT
TO SEE A UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE PREFERRED AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH
CAROLINA. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS WESTERN
GREENBRIER COUNTY WHERE TWO TO THREE MORE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.
ELSEWHERE...WHERE MEASURABLE SNOW OCCURS...AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY
BE LESS THAN AN INCH. RESIDUAL ISOLATED...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...RESIDUAL LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. NO
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED. THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE ON THE GUSTY SIDE. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE
GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE MONDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY SLOWER
GUSTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY.

LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND ALLOWS SURFACE WINDS TO TURN SOUTHWEST. NO PRECIPITATION
IS FORECAST...BUT CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN
ADVANCE OUR NEXT GREAT LAKES CLIPPER SYSTEM.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL TREND
FROM BEING A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TO NEAR OR SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST SATURDAY...

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE GOING BACK TO SPLIT FLOW FOR THE
EXTENDED WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA DOMINATING THE
SOUTHERN STREAM...AND A WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROF FOR THE NORTHERN
STREAM. GFS IS LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WHICH GIVES
IT A WARMER LOOK THAN THE ECMWF.

WE WILL SEE A NORTHERN STREAM LOW MOVE BY TO OUR NORTH ON THURSDAY
WHICH WILL BRING US A CHANCE OF LIGHT SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION WHICH
LOOKS TO BE MIX TO RAIN FOR THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN SWING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING WHICH SETS THE STAGE
FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE WINDS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LOOK QUITE BLUSTERY RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND FORMS A
BIT OF A WEDGE WITH QUIET WEATHER FOR FOR SATURDAY. EURO WANTS TO
BRING A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY.
GFS IS NOT ON BOARD WITH THIS AND ENSEMBLES WERE NOT INDICATING A
MAJOR ARCTIC OUTBREAK. WILL BE LEANING MORE TOWARD THE GFS/ENSEMBLE
SOLUTION AND KEEP TEMPS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT A GOOD 20F WARMER
THAN THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM EST SUNDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS EVENING AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS. IR SAT
SHOWS SCT TO BKN MID AND UPPER CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE WEST. WINDS
HAVE ALREADY DIMINISHED TO BELOW 10KTS. CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES IN
OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. PRECIP WILL INITIALLY BE -RA AT BLF/LWB
AS EARLY AS 03Z AND EASTERN TAF LOCATIONS BETWEEN 06-09Z. EXPECT A
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AT BLF/LWB AFTER 06Z...WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW IN BCB AND ALL RAIN AT ROA/LYH/DAN. EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER TO
MVFR OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY IFR/LIFR BY AROUND DAYBREAK. AS THE
LOW SHIFTS EAST THE WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY
OVERNIGHT...AND THEN TO A MORE N/NW DIRECTION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE COAST. EXPECT CEILINGS TO COME UP A
BIT MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT REMAIN BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR THROUGH 00Z
TUESDAY.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ON TUESDAY. MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY ACROSS BLF/LWB AND PERHAPS EVEN BCB DUE TO
SCATTERED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS. EASTERN TAF LOCATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE A
QUIET DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TAF LOCATIONS. ANOTHER
CLIPPER SYSTEM ARRIVES ON THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CEILINGS AND VISBYS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
HINTON ALL HAZARDS RADIO...162.425MHZ IS OFF THE AIR. THERE IS NO
ESTIMATE FOR RETURN TO SERVICE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY FOR VAZ019-020-
     024.
NC...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY FOR WVZ507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...AMS/JH
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...CF
EQUIPMENT...AMS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 260300
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1000 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER KENTUCKY WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF
SNOW AND RAIN TO MUCH OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD FOLLOW THIS FEATURE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 955 PM EST SUNDAY...

MSAS ANALYSIS HAD THE SURFACE LOW IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY AT 9PM/02Z.
CLOUD BASES WERE LOWERING AND THE AIR MASS WAS GRADUALLY
SATURATING BUT ONLY PRECIPITATION WAS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTY
WARNING AREA UP TO THIS POINT. HAVE ADJUSTED THE TIMING FOR THE
ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN UNTIL AFTER 05Z/MIDNIGHT BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS AND THE LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. ALSO ADJUSTED MINIUM
TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES. DO NOT EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO
DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S UNTIL AROUND 6AM/11Z.

AS THIS COLD POOL BEGINS TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS TOWARD MONDAY
MORNING...MODELS SUGGEST AN ENHANCED AREA OF LIFT IN THE WARM
ADVECTION/DIFFLUENT AXIS JUST EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW WHEN ENERGY
TRANSFER BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE. THIS POSSIBLE AREA OF HEAVIER
PRECIP OF CONCERN IN CAUSING ADDED COLUMN/BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING
WHICH COULD LEAD TO A FEW HOURS OF SNOW ESPCLY GREENBRIER EAST
ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS INTO THE SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY LATE.
SINCE CONSENSUS OF MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS AND HAVE TRENDED
COLDER...UPPING AMOUNTS FOR QUICK BURST OF WET SNOW BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY BUT TRICKY AS IF PRECIP IS LIGHTER THEN MAY ONLY BE RAIN
OUTSIDE THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. SINCE CORRIDOR LOOKS TO FOCUS
ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR AND RIGHT AROUND RUSH HOUR...PLAN TO HOIST
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A FEW COUNTIES ACROSS THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT INTO MIDDAY MONDAY FOR 1-4 INCHES OF WET SNOW. IF THINGS
ORGANIZE MORE THEN COULD SEE HEADLINES NEEDED FARTHER SOUTH INTO
CRAIG/BOTETOURT CTYS AND EAST TO AMHERST BUT TOO IFFY TO INCLUDE
FOR NOW.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECTING PERHAPS A MIX TO SNOW AT TIMES SOUTH INTO THE
ROANOKE/NEW RIVER VALLEYS AND POINTS WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT WITH MUCH
LESS ACCUMULATION AT THIS POINT. MAY SEE AN INCH OR TWO NW NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS BUT STAYING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THERE. OTHERWISE
SHOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN FROM LYH TO BEDFORD TO MTV TO UKF AND POINTS EAST
THROUGH MORNING. HIGHEST CATEGORICAL POPS MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY
460 WITH LIKELYS CENTRAL SECTIONS AND OVERALL CHANCE COVERAGE SOUTH.
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 30S EXCEPT CLOSER TO 30 HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVER THE
NORTH AND POSSIBLY STAYING AROUND 40 SOUTH WHERE CLOUDS MAY TEND TO
LOCK IN WARMTH FROM THIS AFTERNOON.

COASTAL LOW QUICKLY DEEPENS AND TAKES MUCH OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE
NORTH/EAST BY MIDDAY MONDAY WITH A QUICK PUNCH OF COLD ADVECTION
WRAPPING INTO THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE AGAIN SUGGESTING
THAT DURING THIS TRANSITION THAT RAIN/SNOW MAY STILL LINGER OVER THE
WEST UNDER THE PASSAGE OF THE 5H LOW DURING THE MORNING. THIS WOULD BE
ENOUGH ESPCLY GIVEN COOLING ALOFT OVERTOP THE ONSET OF LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION TO PRODUCE ADDED SNOWFALL OVER THE NW BEFORE AFTERNOON DRYING
OCCURS AND SOME DEGREE OF UPSLOPE KICKS IN. HOWEVER STILL APPEARS MAY
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE EVEN IN THE EAST UNDER THE PHASING SYSTEM TO PRODUCE
CONTINUED SPOTTY -RA SO ALTHOUGH EXPECT POPS TO STEADILY DECREASE BY
AFTERNOON...LEAVING IN SOME LINGERING CHANCE COVERAGE WITH LOW LIKELYS
FAR WESTERN SLOPES. SURGE OF COLD AIR ALONG WITH DECENT PRESSURE RISES
SUGGESTS INCREASING NW WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS PERHAPS
JUST BELOW ADVISORY NW NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND QUITE BLUSTERY
ELSEWHERE. KEPT HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 30S NW TO 40-45 BLUE RIDGE AND
UPPER 40S SE PENDING THE DEGREE OF CLOUDS/PRECIP MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM EST SUNDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION WITH NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING
ACROSS THE AREA. EMBEDDED WITHIN THAT FLOW WILL BE RESIDUAL MOISTURE
WITH AT LEAST LAKE ERIE ORIGINS...AND PERHAPS LAKE MICHIGAN. EXPECT
TO SEE A UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE PREFERRED AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH
CAROLINA. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS WESTERN
GREENBRIER COUNTY WHERE TWO TO THREE MORE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.
ELSEWHERE...WHERE MEASURABLE SNOW OCCURS...AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY
BE LESS THAN AN INCH. RESIDUAL ISOLATED...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...RESIDUAL LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. NO
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED. THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE ON THE GUSTY SIDE. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE
GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE MONDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY SLOWER
GUSTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY.

LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND ALLOWS SURFACE WINDS TO TURN SOUTHWEST. NO PRECIPITATION
IS FORECAST...BUT CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN
ADVANCE OUR NEXT GREAT LAKES CLIPPER SYSTEM.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL TREND
FROM BEING A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TO NEAR OR SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST SATURDAY...

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE GOING BACK TO SPLIT FLOW FOR THE
EXTENDED WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA DOMINATING THE
SOUTHERN STREAM...AND A WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROF FOR THE NORTHERN
STREAM. GFS IS LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WHICH GIVES
IT A WARMER LOOK THAN THE ECMWF.

WE WILL SEE A NORTHERN STREAM LOW MOVE BY TO OUR NORTH ON THURSDAY
WHICH WILL BRING US A CHANCE OF LIGHT SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION WHICH
LOOKS TO BE MIX TO RAIN FOR THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN SWING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING WHICH SETS THE STAGE
FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE WINDS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LOOK QUITE BLUSTERY RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND FORMS A
BIT OF A WEDGE WITH QUIET WEATHER FOR FOR SATURDAY. EURO WANTS TO
BRING A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY.
GFS IS NOT ON BOARD WITH THIS AND ENSEMBLES WERE NOT INDICATING A
MAJOR ARCTIC OUTBREAK. WILL BE LEANING MORE TOWARD THE GFS/ENSEMBLE
SOLUTION AND KEEP TEMPS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT A GOOD 20F WARMER
THAN THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM EST SUNDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS EVENING AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS. IR SAT
SHOWS SCT TO BKN MID AND UPPER CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE WEST. WINDS
HAVE ALREADY DIMINISHED TO BELOW 10KTS. CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES IN
OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. PRECIP WILL INITIALLY BE -RA AT BLF/LWB
AS EARLY AS 03Z AND EASTERN TAF LOCATIONS BETWEEN 06-09Z. EXPECT A
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AT BLF/LWB AFTER 06Z...WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW IN BCB AND ALL RAIN AT ROA/LYH/DAN. EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER TO
MVFR OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY IFR/LIFR BY AROUND DAYBREAK. AS THE
LOW SHIFTS EAST THE WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY
OVERNIGHT...AND THEN TO A MORE N/NW DIRECTION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE COAST. EXPECT CEILINGS TO COME UP A
BIT MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT REMAIN BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR THROUGH 00Z
TUESDAY.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ON TUESDAY. MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY ACROSS BLF/LWB AND PERHAPS EVEN BCB DUE TO
SCATTERED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS. EASTERN TAF LOCATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE A
QUIET DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TAF LOCATIONS. ANOTHER
CLIPPER SYSTEM ARRIVES ON THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CEILINGS AND VISBYS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
HINTON ALL HAZARDS RADIO...162.425MHZ IS OFF THE AIR. THERE IS NO
ESTIMATE FOR RETURN TO SERVICE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY FOR VAZ019-020-
     024.
NC...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY FOR WVZ507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...AMS/JH
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...CF
EQUIPMENT...AMS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 260300
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1000 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER KENTUCKY WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF
SNOW AND RAIN TO MUCH OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD FOLLOW THIS FEATURE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 955 PM EST SUNDAY...

MSAS ANALYSIS HAD THE SURFACE LOW IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY AT 9PM/02Z.
CLOUD BASES WERE LOWERING AND THE AIR MASS WAS GRADUALLY
SATURATING BUT ONLY PRECIPITATION WAS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTY
WARNING AREA UP TO THIS POINT. HAVE ADJUSTED THE TIMING FOR THE
ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN UNTIL AFTER 05Z/MIDNIGHT BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS AND THE LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. ALSO ADJUSTED MINIUM
TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES. DO NOT EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO
DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S UNTIL AROUND 6AM/11Z.

AS THIS COLD POOL BEGINS TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS TOWARD MONDAY
MORNING...MODELS SUGGEST AN ENHANCED AREA OF LIFT IN THE WARM
ADVECTION/DIFFLUENT AXIS JUST EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW WHEN ENERGY
TRANSFER BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE. THIS POSSIBLE AREA OF HEAVIER
PRECIP OF CONCERN IN CAUSING ADDED COLUMN/BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING
WHICH COULD LEAD TO A FEW HOURS OF SNOW ESPCLY GREENBRIER EAST
ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS INTO THE SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY LATE.
SINCE CONSENSUS OF MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS AND HAVE TRENDED
COLDER...UPPING AMOUNTS FOR QUICK BURST OF WET SNOW BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY BUT TRICKY AS IF PRECIP IS LIGHTER THEN MAY ONLY BE RAIN
OUTSIDE THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. SINCE CORRIDOR LOOKS TO FOCUS
ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR AND RIGHT AROUND RUSH HOUR...PLAN TO HOIST
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A FEW COUNTIES ACROSS THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT INTO MIDDAY MONDAY FOR 1-4 INCHES OF WET SNOW. IF THINGS
ORGANIZE MORE THEN COULD SEE HEADLINES NEEDED FARTHER SOUTH INTO
CRAIG/BOTETOURT CTYS AND EAST TO AMHERST BUT TOO IFFY TO INCLUDE
FOR NOW.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECTING PERHAPS A MIX TO SNOW AT TIMES SOUTH INTO THE
ROANOKE/NEW RIVER VALLEYS AND POINTS WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT WITH MUCH
LESS ACCUMULATION AT THIS POINT. MAY SEE AN INCH OR TWO NW NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS BUT STAYING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THERE. OTHERWISE
SHOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN FROM LYH TO BEDFORD TO MTV TO UKF AND POINTS EAST
THROUGH MORNING. HIGHEST CATEGORICAL POPS MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY
460 WITH LIKELYS CENTRAL SECTIONS AND OVERALL CHANCE COVERAGE SOUTH.
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 30S EXCEPT CLOSER TO 30 HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVER THE
NORTH AND POSSIBLY STAYING AROUND 40 SOUTH WHERE CLOUDS MAY TEND TO
LOCK IN WARMTH FROM THIS AFTERNOON.

COASTAL LOW QUICKLY DEEPENS AND TAKES MUCH OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE
NORTH/EAST BY MIDDAY MONDAY WITH A QUICK PUNCH OF COLD ADVECTION
WRAPPING INTO THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE AGAIN SUGGESTING
THAT DURING THIS TRANSITION THAT RAIN/SNOW MAY STILL LINGER OVER THE
WEST UNDER THE PASSAGE OF THE 5H LOW DURING THE MORNING. THIS WOULD BE
ENOUGH ESPCLY GIVEN COOLING ALOFT OVERTOP THE ONSET OF LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION TO PRODUCE ADDED SNOWFALL OVER THE NW BEFORE AFTERNOON DRYING
OCCURS AND SOME DEGREE OF UPSLOPE KICKS IN. HOWEVER STILL APPEARS MAY
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE EVEN IN THE EAST UNDER THE PHASING SYSTEM TO PRODUCE
CONTINUED SPOTTY -RA SO ALTHOUGH EXPECT POPS TO STEADILY DECREASE BY
AFTERNOON...LEAVING IN SOME LINGERING CHANCE COVERAGE WITH LOW LIKELYS
FAR WESTERN SLOPES. SURGE OF COLD AIR ALONG WITH DECENT PRESSURE RISES
SUGGESTS INCREASING NW WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS PERHAPS
JUST BELOW ADVISORY NW NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND QUITE BLUSTERY
ELSEWHERE. KEPT HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 30S NW TO 40-45 BLUE RIDGE AND
UPPER 40S SE PENDING THE DEGREE OF CLOUDS/PRECIP MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM EST SUNDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION WITH NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING
ACROSS THE AREA. EMBEDDED WITHIN THAT FLOW WILL BE RESIDUAL MOISTURE
WITH AT LEAST LAKE ERIE ORIGINS...AND PERHAPS LAKE MICHIGAN. EXPECT
TO SEE A UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE PREFERRED AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH
CAROLINA. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS WESTERN
GREENBRIER COUNTY WHERE TWO TO THREE MORE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.
ELSEWHERE...WHERE MEASURABLE SNOW OCCURS...AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY
BE LESS THAN AN INCH. RESIDUAL ISOLATED...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...RESIDUAL LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. NO
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED. THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE ON THE GUSTY SIDE. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE
GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE MONDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY SLOWER
GUSTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY.

LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND ALLOWS SURFACE WINDS TO TURN SOUTHWEST. NO PRECIPITATION
IS FORECAST...BUT CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN
ADVANCE OUR NEXT GREAT LAKES CLIPPER SYSTEM.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL TREND
FROM BEING A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TO NEAR OR SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST SATURDAY...

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE GOING BACK TO SPLIT FLOW FOR THE
EXTENDED WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA DOMINATING THE
SOUTHERN STREAM...AND A WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROF FOR THE NORTHERN
STREAM. GFS IS LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WHICH GIVES
IT A WARMER LOOK THAN THE ECMWF.

WE WILL SEE A NORTHERN STREAM LOW MOVE BY TO OUR NORTH ON THURSDAY
WHICH WILL BRING US A CHANCE OF LIGHT SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION WHICH
LOOKS TO BE MIX TO RAIN FOR THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN SWING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING WHICH SETS THE STAGE
FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE WINDS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LOOK QUITE BLUSTERY RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND FORMS A
BIT OF A WEDGE WITH QUIET WEATHER FOR FOR SATURDAY. EURO WANTS TO
BRING A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY.
GFS IS NOT ON BOARD WITH THIS AND ENSEMBLES WERE NOT INDICATING A
MAJOR ARCTIC OUTBREAK. WILL BE LEANING MORE TOWARD THE GFS/ENSEMBLE
SOLUTION AND KEEP TEMPS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT A GOOD 20F WARMER
THAN THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM EST SUNDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS EVENING AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS. IR SAT
SHOWS SCT TO BKN MID AND UPPER CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE WEST. WINDS
HAVE ALREADY DIMINISHED TO BELOW 10KTS. CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES IN
OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. PRECIP WILL INITIALLY BE -RA AT BLF/LWB
AS EARLY AS 03Z AND EASTERN TAF LOCATIONS BETWEEN 06-09Z. EXPECT A
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AT BLF/LWB AFTER 06Z...WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW IN BCB AND ALL RAIN AT ROA/LYH/DAN. EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER TO
MVFR OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY IFR/LIFR BY AROUND DAYBREAK. AS THE
LOW SHIFTS EAST THE WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY
OVERNIGHT...AND THEN TO A MORE N/NW DIRECTION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE COAST. EXPECT CEILINGS TO COME UP A
BIT MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT REMAIN BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR THROUGH 00Z
TUESDAY.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ON TUESDAY. MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY ACROSS BLF/LWB AND PERHAPS EVEN BCB DUE TO
SCATTERED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS. EASTERN TAF LOCATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE A
QUIET DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TAF LOCATIONS. ANOTHER
CLIPPER SYSTEM ARRIVES ON THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CEILINGS AND VISBYS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
HINTON ALL HAZARDS RADIO...162.425MHZ IS OFF THE AIR. THERE IS NO
ESTIMATE FOR RETURN TO SERVICE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY FOR VAZ019-020-
     024.
NC...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY FOR WVZ507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...AMS/JH
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...CF
EQUIPMENT...AMS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 260150 CCA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
850 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BRIEFLY TODAY.
LOW PRESSURE OVER IOWA WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA
TONIGHT...STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES UP THE COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC LOPRES 1005 MB BTWN SDF AND LEX. HWVR...THE WATER VAPOR LOOP
DEPICTS AN IMPRESSIVELY ROBUST SYSTEM...EVEN CRANKING OUT A BIT OF
LTNG ACRS DIXIE. ITLL STILL BE SVRL HRS THOUGH BEFORE THE CATALYST
FOR ANY SGFNT PCPN WL REACH CWFA. TIL THEN...ANY PCPN SHUD BE REAL
LGT...IE SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES. SINCE CLDS HV OVERSPREAD
AREA...TEMPS NOT DROPPING MUCH. BELIEVE EVAP COOLING WL BE THE
TRIGGERING FACTOR FOR THAT TO HPPN.

WITH THAT IN MIND...WL BE MAKING A FEW SMALL TWEAKS TO THE FCST.
WL BE PADDING SNW ACCUM TO THE CENTRAL SHEN VLY/BLURDG...TO ACCT
FOR DYNAMICAL COOLING/PCPN PRODUCTION INVOF PVA. THAT WUD PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT ACCUMS TO ADD THE CENTRAL VA BLUE RIDGE ZONE TO A
WINTER WX ADVY. WL ALSO BE BUMPING MIN-T UPWD BY A DEGF OR TWO FM
CHO-DCA-NAK.

NO CHGS TO THE SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION AS DESCRIBED PREVIOUSLY. WL
LEAVE THAT PART OF THE DSCN BELOW.

CONCERNING THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...PCPN PUSHES EAST INTO THE
AREA...FOLLOWING THE MASON DIXON LINE AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTH.
TIMED THE PCPN FOLLOWING A BLEND OF THE HIRES ARW/NMM...WHICH KEEPS
THE PCPN THIS EVENING MAINLY NORTH OF THE DC/BALTIMORE METROS. AS
THE LOW NEARS OVERNIGHT AND THE TROUGH BEGINS TO ROTATE HEADING TO
THE NEGATIVE TILT...THE PCPN OVERSPREADS THE AREA...COMING FROM A
SOUTH AND WEST POSITION. TEMPS INITIALLY IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S
THIS EVENING WOULD SUGGEST ALL RAIN...WITH SOME SNOWFLAKES MIXING
IN. AS THE BETTER DYNAMICALLY FORCING MOVES THROUGH...WILL SEE THE
PCPN CHANGING TO ALL SNOW FROM A N TO S PATH. 12Z NAM AND SREF
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE THE COLDER SOLUTIONS...BUT REALLY LAG THE
CHANGE OVER. THE 12Z GFS...A MUCH WARMER SOLUTION...HOLDS ONTO THE
RAIN FOR MANY PORTIONS OF THE AREA WELL INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE CAA
REALLY TAKES HOLD. WAS INITIALLY IMPRESSED WITH 850MB TEMPS A COUPLE
DAYS AGO DROPPING TO -7 DEGREES CELSIUS...BUT NOW GFS/ECMWF AND NAM
ALL KEEP AROUND -2 DEGREES CELSIUS THRU MONDAY. THE THINKING IS IT
WILL TAKE THE HEAVIER QPF AMTS TO RESULT IN AN ALL SNOW SOLUTION AND
AS SUCH HAVE TIME THE CHANGE OVER TO CORRESPOND AS THE HEAVIER PCPN
MOVES IN. QPF AMTS WERE TRICKY...WITH GFS ON THE HIGHER END AND THEN
THE ECMWF AND NAM ON THE LOWER SIDE. TOOK A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SPREAD. WHEN CALCULATING SNOW TOTALS...KEPT WITH
A 10:1 RATIO FOR TONIGHT. WOULD LIKE TO STRESS THAT THE TIMING OF
THE CHANGEOVER WILL BE CRUCIAL TO THE SNOW TOTALS FOR TONIGHT...WITH
SOME AREAS MAYBE GETTING NOTHING...AND SOME SEEING AN ADDITIONAL 1-2
INCHES.

THE LOW PUSHES OFFSHORE WITH THE UPPER LVL TROUGH BCMG NEGATIVELY
TILTED DURING THE DAY. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST...AN EASTERLY FLOW SET
UP WILL KEEP PLENTY OF MOISTURE BEING INJECTED IN OVER THE AREA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ON GOING PCPN DURING THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER LVL
ENERGY SHIFTS FROM THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND ALIGNS ALONG
A LINE PARALLEL TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. HAVE TIMED OUT THE HEAVIEST
PCPN CORRESPONDING TO THE BETTER FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...WHICH HAS THE
LINE OF HEAVIEST PCPN LINING THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE MORNING. 12Z NAM
AND GFS HAVE CAPTURED THIS WITH THE ECMWF HINTING AT IT. CONTINUED
TO USE A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR QPF TOTALS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY MONDAY. AS FOR PCPN TYPES...EXPECTING TO SEE ACTUALLY A LITTLE
WARMING IN THE MORNING...THEN SHOULD SEE DECREASING TEMPS HEADING
INTO THE AFTN AS THE COLDER AIR IS USHERED ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEEPENING LOW...NOW OFFSHORE. THINKING THE TYPICALLY COLDER AREAS OF
BALTIMORE METRO EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF DC METRO WILL
STAY COLDER DURING THE TIME AS A NORTHEAST FLOW SETS UP. SO WILL
KEEP THEM ALL SNOW...WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX TO THE SOUTH...OR POSSIBLY
EVEN A PERIOD OF ALL RAIN IN THE MORNING. AS THE TEMPS COOL IN THE
AFTN...EXPECTING EVERYWHERE BUT SOUTHERN MD TO BECOME SNOW.
AGAIN...SHOULD BE NOTED...ANY DIFFERENCE IN P-TYPE WILL CHANGE THE
SNOW TOTALS...ESP CONSIDERING THAT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND WE GET
COLDER AIR...SHOULD EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING SNOW RATIOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS RAPIDLY MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE AN
UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE CWA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
ENOUGH MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...COMBINED WITH TEMPS BELOW FREEZING
OVER MOST OF THE CWA...WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED SNOW. MAIN
QUESTION FOR MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD WILL BE WHETHER AN AXIS OF
HEAVIER SNOW WILL SET UP WEST OF CHESAPEAKE BAY BEFORE LIFTING OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST. A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
MARYLAND COUNTIES ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF CHESAPEAKE BAY.

WL BE AWAITING 00Z GDNC. MAY MAKE SOME DECISION AT THAT TIME IF
SUFFICIENT CONSISTENCY DISPLAYED ON WHERE THE BACK EGDE OF THE
PCPN SHIELD WL RESIDE.

FURTHER WEST...ANOTHER INCH OR SO OF SNOW IS LIKELY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL MD...THE EASTERN WV PANHANDLE...THE WASHINGTON DC METRO
AND NORTHERN VA. REFRAINED FROM EXTENDING THE WINTER WX ADVISORY
AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD THAT ADDITIONAL SNOW WOULD TAKE
PLACE AFTER EVENING RUSH HOUR...AND END BEFORE THE TUESDAY MORNING
RUSH.

THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH
GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON WHETHER IT PROGRESSES FARTHER THAN LONG
ISLAND. BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION CONTINUES TO
BE ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF CHESAPEAKE BAY...WITH SNOW OTHERWISE
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA. COLD AIR WILL ADVECT INTO
THE REGION WITH NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE
LOW...WITH GUSTY WINDS LIKELY, HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WITH BE IN THE
30S.

COMBINATION OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND THE OFFSHORE
LOW EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE BRING IN VERY COLD AIR FROM
CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS OVER MUCH
OF THE CWA...WITH LOW 20S ALONG AND EAST OF I-95. ANY REMAINING
PRECIP COMES TO AN END TUESDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT POTENTIAL UPSLOPE
SNOW OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES ABOUT
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY TO ALLOW FOR A GREAT LAKES LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AND
LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE LOW`S WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. AS WE VENTURE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE LOW PASSES
OVERHEAD WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT...SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AND
COULD LEAD TO A SMALL ACCUMULATION. ADDITIONAL AND HIGHER
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES IN THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS DUE TO UPSLOPE WIND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
BY ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEGREES.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE
WEST AND NORTH AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PIVOTS
ACROSS THE REGION. A DOWNSLOPING WIND OFF OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS
AND BLUE RIDGE SHOULD SUPPRESS A LOT OF THE SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR DRIER AND MORE PEACEFUL WEATHER CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS PREVAIL ACRS THE TERMINALS ATTM. ANTICIPATE FLGT CONDS
DROPPING BEFORE MRNG PUSH AS PCPN ARRIVES. HV PUSHED LIFR BACK
INTO MID MRNG. AM CONCERNED THAT PCPN PRIOR TO THAT WL EITHER BE
LGT OR HV A HEALTHY CONTRIBUTION FM RA /OUTSIDE OF MRB/. ONCE AOB
IFR CONDS ARRIVE...THEY WL LKLY LAST THRU MON MORNING WITH PERIODS OF
HEAVIER SNOW. PCPN TYPE QUESTIONABLE AS PSBL RAIN/SNOW MIX OR ALL
RAIN AT KDCA/KBWI/KCHO AT FIRST...THEN BCMG ALL SNOW AFTR 12Z.
OTHER TERMINALS MORE LIKELY ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW MIX
BCMG ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT.

ONGOING PCPN MONDAY WITH SNOW...IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS LIKELY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVIER PCPN (ALL SNOW) MON NIGHT INTO TUES KEEPS
IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN PLACE.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH LIGHT SNOW MONDAY NIGHT. HEAVIER
MAY DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING NEAR KBWI/KMTN WITH
N-NW WINDS GUSTING 20-25KT. SNOW MAY CONTINUE AT KBWI/KMTN
TUESDAY. ANY LEFTOVER SNOW AT THE OTHER TERMINALS SHOULD END.
GUST NW WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION...AROUND 20-25KT...WITH
SOME 30KT GUSTS PSBL. VFR TUES NIGHT. GUSTY NW WINDS CONTINUE.

VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
GUSTING 20 TO 30 KNOTS.

IFR OR PERHAPS LIFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP THURSDAY WITH PERIODS
OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW NEAR THE TERMINALS WITH AN APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTS THIS EVNG. WINDS WL BE INCRSG
OVNGT...HWVR THE BEST CHC FOR GUSTS TO 20 KTS LOOKS TO BE TWD
DAWN...AND ESPECIALLY THEN DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

GUSTY N-NW WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OFFSHORE. WL EXPAND GLW TO INCL THE ENTIRE
CHSPK BAY. MID-UPR PTMC A BIT TOO FAR WEST...AND AM NOT CERTAIN
HOW FAR WEST THE P-GRAD WUD EXTEND. GALE MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED
BY TUESDAY MORNING AS COLDER AIR ALOFT ALLOWS BETTER MIXING.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS NORTHWEST
WINDS GUST 20 TO 30 KNOTS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...DEPENDING
ON HOW FAST NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISH INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     DCZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ004>006-
     011-503>508.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ003.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     MDZ013-014.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MDZ006-011-014-017-018-507-508.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ501-502.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ025>027-
     029>031-040-501-503>508.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ028.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     VAZ039-051>054-502.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ505-506.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ051>053.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ050-055-
     501>504.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/KCS
NEAR TERM...HTS/SEARS
SHORT TERM...HTS/KCS
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...HTS/SEARS/KCS/KLW
MARINE...HTS/SEARS/KCS/KLW









000
FXUS61 KLWX 260150 CCA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
850 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BRIEFLY TODAY.
LOW PRESSURE OVER IOWA WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA
TONIGHT...STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES UP THE COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC LOPRES 1005 MB BTWN SDF AND LEX. HWVR...THE WATER VAPOR LOOP
DEPICTS AN IMPRESSIVELY ROBUST SYSTEM...EVEN CRANKING OUT A BIT OF
LTNG ACRS DIXIE. ITLL STILL BE SVRL HRS THOUGH BEFORE THE CATALYST
FOR ANY SGFNT PCPN WL REACH CWFA. TIL THEN...ANY PCPN SHUD BE REAL
LGT...IE SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES. SINCE CLDS HV OVERSPREAD
AREA...TEMPS NOT DROPPING MUCH. BELIEVE EVAP COOLING WL BE THE
TRIGGERING FACTOR FOR THAT TO HPPN.

WITH THAT IN MIND...WL BE MAKING A FEW SMALL TWEAKS TO THE FCST.
WL BE PADDING SNW ACCUM TO THE CENTRAL SHEN VLY/BLURDG...TO ACCT
FOR DYNAMICAL COOLING/PCPN PRODUCTION INVOF PVA. THAT WUD PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT ACCUMS TO ADD THE CENTRAL VA BLUE RIDGE ZONE TO A
WINTER WX ADVY. WL ALSO BE BUMPING MIN-T UPWD BY A DEGF OR TWO FM
CHO-DCA-NAK.

NO CHGS TO THE SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION AS DESCRIBED PREVIOUSLY. WL
LEAVE THAT PART OF THE DSCN BELOW.

CONCERNING THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...PCPN PUSHES EAST INTO THE
AREA...FOLLOWING THE MASON DIXON LINE AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTH.
TIMED THE PCPN FOLLOWING A BLEND OF THE HIRES ARW/NMM...WHICH KEEPS
THE PCPN THIS EVENING MAINLY NORTH OF THE DC/BALTIMORE METROS. AS
THE LOW NEARS OVERNIGHT AND THE TROUGH BEGINS TO ROTATE HEADING TO
THE NEGATIVE TILT...THE PCPN OVERSPREADS THE AREA...COMING FROM A
SOUTH AND WEST POSITION. TEMPS INITIALLY IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S
THIS EVENING WOULD SUGGEST ALL RAIN...WITH SOME SNOWFLAKES MIXING
IN. AS THE BETTER DYNAMICALLY FORCING MOVES THROUGH...WILL SEE THE
PCPN CHANGING TO ALL SNOW FROM A N TO S PATH. 12Z NAM AND SREF
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE THE COLDER SOLUTIONS...BUT REALLY LAG THE
CHANGE OVER. THE 12Z GFS...A MUCH WARMER SOLUTION...HOLDS ONTO THE
RAIN FOR MANY PORTIONS OF THE AREA WELL INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE CAA
REALLY TAKES HOLD. WAS INITIALLY IMPRESSED WITH 850MB TEMPS A COUPLE
DAYS AGO DROPPING TO -7 DEGREES CELSIUS...BUT NOW GFS/ECMWF AND NAM
ALL KEEP AROUND -2 DEGREES CELSIUS THRU MONDAY. THE THINKING IS IT
WILL TAKE THE HEAVIER QPF AMTS TO RESULT IN AN ALL SNOW SOLUTION AND
AS SUCH HAVE TIME THE CHANGE OVER TO CORRESPOND AS THE HEAVIER PCPN
MOVES IN. QPF AMTS WERE TRICKY...WITH GFS ON THE HIGHER END AND THEN
THE ECMWF AND NAM ON THE LOWER SIDE. TOOK A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SPREAD. WHEN CALCULATING SNOW TOTALS...KEPT WITH
A 10:1 RATIO FOR TONIGHT. WOULD LIKE TO STRESS THAT THE TIMING OF
THE CHANGEOVER WILL BE CRUCIAL TO THE SNOW TOTALS FOR TONIGHT...WITH
SOME AREAS MAYBE GETTING NOTHING...AND SOME SEEING AN ADDITIONAL 1-2
INCHES.

THE LOW PUSHES OFFSHORE WITH THE UPPER LVL TROUGH BCMG NEGATIVELY
TILTED DURING THE DAY. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST...AN EASTERLY FLOW SET
UP WILL KEEP PLENTY OF MOISTURE BEING INJECTED IN OVER THE AREA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ON GOING PCPN DURING THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER LVL
ENERGY SHIFTS FROM THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND ALIGNS ALONG
A LINE PARALLEL TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. HAVE TIMED OUT THE HEAVIEST
PCPN CORRESPONDING TO THE BETTER FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...WHICH HAS THE
LINE OF HEAVIEST PCPN LINING THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE MORNING. 12Z NAM
AND GFS HAVE CAPTURED THIS WITH THE ECMWF HINTING AT IT. CONTINUED
TO USE A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR QPF TOTALS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY MONDAY. AS FOR PCPN TYPES...EXPECTING TO SEE ACTUALLY A LITTLE
WARMING IN THE MORNING...THEN SHOULD SEE DECREASING TEMPS HEADING
INTO THE AFTN AS THE COLDER AIR IS USHERED ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEEPENING LOW...NOW OFFSHORE. THINKING THE TYPICALLY COLDER AREAS OF
BALTIMORE METRO EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF DC METRO WILL
STAY COLDER DURING THE TIME AS A NORTHEAST FLOW SETS UP. SO WILL
KEEP THEM ALL SNOW...WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX TO THE SOUTH...OR POSSIBLY
EVEN A PERIOD OF ALL RAIN IN THE MORNING. AS THE TEMPS COOL IN THE
AFTN...EXPECTING EVERYWHERE BUT SOUTHERN MD TO BECOME SNOW.
AGAIN...SHOULD BE NOTED...ANY DIFFERENCE IN P-TYPE WILL CHANGE THE
SNOW TOTALS...ESP CONSIDERING THAT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND WE GET
COLDER AIR...SHOULD EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING SNOW RATIOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS RAPIDLY MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE AN
UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE CWA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
ENOUGH MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...COMBINED WITH TEMPS BELOW FREEZING
OVER MOST OF THE CWA...WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED SNOW. MAIN
QUESTION FOR MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD WILL BE WHETHER AN AXIS OF
HEAVIER SNOW WILL SET UP WEST OF CHESAPEAKE BAY BEFORE LIFTING OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST. A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
MARYLAND COUNTIES ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF CHESAPEAKE BAY.

WL BE AWAITING 00Z GDNC. MAY MAKE SOME DECISION AT THAT TIME IF
SUFFICIENT CONSISTENCY DISPLAYED ON WHERE THE BACK EGDE OF THE
PCPN SHIELD WL RESIDE.

FURTHER WEST...ANOTHER INCH OR SO OF SNOW IS LIKELY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL MD...THE EASTERN WV PANHANDLE...THE WASHINGTON DC METRO
AND NORTHERN VA. REFRAINED FROM EXTENDING THE WINTER WX ADVISORY
AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD THAT ADDITIONAL SNOW WOULD TAKE
PLACE AFTER EVENING RUSH HOUR...AND END BEFORE THE TUESDAY MORNING
RUSH.

THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH
GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON WHETHER IT PROGRESSES FARTHER THAN LONG
ISLAND. BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION CONTINUES TO
BE ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF CHESAPEAKE BAY...WITH SNOW OTHERWISE
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA. COLD AIR WILL ADVECT INTO
THE REGION WITH NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE
LOW...WITH GUSTY WINDS LIKELY, HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WITH BE IN THE
30S.

COMBINATION OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND THE OFFSHORE
LOW EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE BRING IN VERY COLD AIR FROM
CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS OVER MUCH
OF THE CWA...WITH LOW 20S ALONG AND EAST OF I-95. ANY REMAINING
PRECIP COMES TO AN END TUESDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT POTENTIAL UPSLOPE
SNOW OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES ABOUT
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY TO ALLOW FOR A GREAT LAKES LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AND
LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE LOW`S WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. AS WE VENTURE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE LOW PASSES
OVERHEAD WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT...SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AND
COULD LEAD TO A SMALL ACCUMULATION. ADDITIONAL AND HIGHER
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES IN THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS DUE TO UPSLOPE WIND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
BY ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEGREES.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE
WEST AND NORTH AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PIVOTS
ACROSS THE REGION. A DOWNSLOPING WIND OFF OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS
AND BLUE RIDGE SHOULD SUPPRESS A LOT OF THE SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR DRIER AND MORE PEACEFUL WEATHER CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS PREVAIL ACRS THE TERMINALS ATTM. ANTICIPATE FLGT CONDS
DROPPING BEFORE MRNG PUSH AS PCPN ARRIVES. HV PUSHED LIFR BACK
INTO MID MRNG. AM CONCERNED THAT PCPN PRIOR TO THAT WL EITHER BE
LGT OR HV A HEALTHY CONTRIBUTION FM RA /OUTSIDE OF MRB/. ONCE AOB
IFR CONDS ARRIVE...THEY WL LKLY LAST THRU MON MORNING WITH PERIODS OF
HEAVIER SNOW. PCPN TYPE QUESTIONABLE AS PSBL RAIN/SNOW MIX OR ALL
RAIN AT KDCA/KBWI/KCHO AT FIRST...THEN BCMG ALL SNOW AFTR 12Z.
OTHER TERMINALS MORE LIKELY ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW MIX
BCMG ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT.

ONGOING PCPN MONDAY WITH SNOW...IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS LIKELY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVIER PCPN (ALL SNOW) MON NIGHT INTO TUES KEEPS
IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN PLACE.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH LIGHT SNOW MONDAY NIGHT. HEAVIER
MAY DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING NEAR KBWI/KMTN WITH
N-NW WINDS GUSTING 20-25KT. SNOW MAY CONTINUE AT KBWI/KMTN
TUESDAY. ANY LEFTOVER SNOW AT THE OTHER TERMINALS SHOULD END.
GUST NW WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION...AROUND 20-25KT...WITH
SOME 30KT GUSTS PSBL. VFR TUES NIGHT. GUSTY NW WINDS CONTINUE.

VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
GUSTING 20 TO 30 KNOTS.

IFR OR PERHAPS LIFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP THURSDAY WITH PERIODS
OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW NEAR THE TERMINALS WITH AN APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTS THIS EVNG. WINDS WL BE INCRSG
OVNGT...HWVR THE BEST CHC FOR GUSTS TO 20 KTS LOOKS TO BE TWD
DAWN...AND ESPECIALLY THEN DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

GUSTY N-NW WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OFFSHORE. WL EXPAND GLW TO INCL THE ENTIRE
CHSPK BAY. MID-UPR PTMC A BIT TOO FAR WEST...AND AM NOT CERTAIN
HOW FAR WEST THE P-GRAD WUD EXTEND. GALE MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED
BY TUESDAY MORNING AS COLDER AIR ALOFT ALLOWS BETTER MIXING.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS NORTHWEST
WINDS GUST 20 TO 30 KNOTS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...DEPENDING
ON HOW FAST NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISH INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     DCZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ004>006-
     011-503>508.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ003.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     MDZ013-014.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MDZ006-011-014-017-018-507-508.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ501-502.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ025>027-
     029>031-040-501-503>508.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ028.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     VAZ039-051>054-502.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ505-506.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ051>053.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ050-055-
     501>504.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/KCS
NEAR TERM...HTS/SEARS
SHORT TERM...HTS/KCS
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...HTS/SEARS/KCS/KLW
MARINE...HTS/SEARS/KCS/KLW










000
FXUS61 KLWX 260150 CCA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
850 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BRIEFLY TODAY.
LOW PRESSURE OVER IOWA WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA
TONIGHT...STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES UP THE COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC LOPRES 1005 MB BTWN SDF AND LEX. HWVR...THE WATER VAPOR LOOP
DEPICTS AN IMPRESSIVELY ROBUST SYSTEM...EVEN CRANKING OUT A BIT OF
LTNG ACRS DIXIE. ITLL STILL BE SVRL HRS THOUGH BEFORE THE CATALYST
FOR ANY SGFNT PCPN WL REACH CWFA. TIL THEN...ANY PCPN SHUD BE REAL
LGT...IE SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES. SINCE CLDS HV OVERSPREAD
AREA...TEMPS NOT DROPPING MUCH. BELIEVE EVAP COOLING WL BE THE
TRIGGERING FACTOR FOR THAT TO HPPN.

WITH THAT IN MIND...WL BE MAKING A FEW SMALL TWEAKS TO THE FCST.
WL BE PADDING SNW ACCUM TO THE CENTRAL SHEN VLY/BLURDG...TO ACCT
FOR DYNAMICAL COOLING/PCPN PRODUCTION INVOF PVA. THAT WUD PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT ACCUMS TO ADD THE CENTRAL VA BLUE RIDGE ZONE TO A
WINTER WX ADVY. WL ALSO BE BUMPING MIN-T UPWD BY A DEGF OR TWO FM
CHO-DCA-NAK.

NO CHGS TO THE SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION AS DESCRIBED PREVIOUSLY. WL
LEAVE THAT PART OF THE DSCN BELOW.

CONCERNING THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...PCPN PUSHES EAST INTO THE
AREA...FOLLOWING THE MASON DIXON LINE AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTH.
TIMED THE PCPN FOLLOWING A BLEND OF THE HIRES ARW/NMM...WHICH KEEPS
THE PCPN THIS EVENING MAINLY NORTH OF THE DC/BALTIMORE METROS. AS
THE LOW NEARS OVERNIGHT AND THE TROUGH BEGINS TO ROTATE HEADING TO
THE NEGATIVE TILT...THE PCPN OVERSPREADS THE AREA...COMING FROM A
SOUTH AND WEST POSITION. TEMPS INITIALLY IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S
THIS EVENING WOULD SUGGEST ALL RAIN...WITH SOME SNOWFLAKES MIXING
IN. AS THE BETTER DYNAMICALLY FORCING MOVES THROUGH...WILL SEE THE
PCPN CHANGING TO ALL SNOW FROM A N TO S PATH. 12Z NAM AND SREF
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE THE COLDER SOLUTIONS...BUT REALLY LAG THE
CHANGE OVER. THE 12Z GFS...A MUCH WARMER SOLUTION...HOLDS ONTO THE
RAIN FOR MANY PORTIONS OF THE AREA WELL INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE CAA
REALLY TAKES HOLD. WAS INITIALLY IMPRESSED WITH 850MB TEMPS A COUPLE
DAYS AGO DROPPING TO -7 DEGREES CELSIUS...BUT NOW GFS/ECMWF AND NAM
ALL KEEP AROUND -2 DEGREES CELSIUS THRU MONDAY. THE THINKING IS IT
WILL TAKE THE HEAVIER QPF AMTS TO RESULT IN AN ALL SNOW SOLUTION AND
AS SUCH HAVE TIME THE CHANGE OVER TO CORRESPOND AS THE HEAVIER PCPN
MOVES IN. QPF AMTS WERE TRICKY...WITH GFS ON THE HIGHER END AND THEN
THE ECMWF AND NAM ON THE LOWER SIDE. TOOK A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SPREAD. WHEN CALCULATING SNOW TOTALS...KEPT WITH
A 10:1 RATIO FOR TONIGHT. WOULD LIKE TO STRESS THAT THE TIMING OF
THE CHANGEOVER WILL BE CRUCIAL TO THE SNOW TOTALS FOR TONIGHT...WITH
SOME AREAS MAYBE GETTING NOTHING...AND SOME SEEING AN ADDITIONAL 1-2
INCHES.

THE LOW PUSHES OFFSHORE WITH THE UPPER LVL TROUGH BCMG NEGATIVELY
TILTED DURING THE DAY. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST...AN EASTERLY FLOW SET
UP WILL KEEP PLENTY OF MOISTURE BEING INJECTED IN OVER THE AREA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ON GOING PCPN DURING THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER LVL
ENERGY SHIFTS FROM THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND ALIGNS ALONG
A LINE PARALLEL TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. HAVE TIMED OUT THE HEAVIEST
PCPN CORRESPONDING TO THE BETTER FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...WHICH HAS THE
LINE OF HEAVIEST PCPN LINING THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE MORNING. 12Z NAM
AND GFS HAVE CAPTURED THIS WITH THE ECMWF HINTING AT IT. CONTINUED
TO USE A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR QPF TOTALS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY MONDAY. AS FOR PCPN TYPES...EXPECTING TO SEE ACTUALLY A LITTLE
WARMING IN THE MORNING...THEN SHOULD SEE DECREASING TEMPS HEADING
INTO THE AFTN AS THE COLDER AIR IS USHERED ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEEPENING LOW...NOW OFFSHORE. THINKING THE TYPICALLY COLDER AREAS OF
BALTIMORE METRO EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF DC METRO WILL
STAY COLDER DURING THE TIME AS A NORTHEAST FLOW SETS UP. SO WILL
KEEP THEM ALL SNOW...WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX TO THE SOUTH...OR POSSIBLY
EVEN A PERIOD OF ALL RAIN IN THE MORNING. AS THE TEMPS COOL IN THE
AFTN...EXPECTING EVERYWHERE BUT SOUTHERN MD TO BECOME SNOW.
AGAIN...SHOULD BE NOTED...ANY DIFFERENCE IN P-TYPE WILL CHANGE THE
SNOW TOTALS...ESP CONSIDERING THAT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND WE GET
COLDER AIR...SHOULD EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING SNOW RATIOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS RAPIDLY MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE AN
UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE CWA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
ENOUGH MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...COMBINED WITH TEMPS BELOW FREEZING
OVER MOST OF THE CWA...WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED SNOW. MAIN
QUESTION FOR MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD WILL BE WHETHER AN AXIS OF
HEAVIER SNOW WILL SET UP WEST OF CHESAPEAKE BAY BEFORE LIFTING OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST. A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
MARYLAND COUNTIES ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF CHESAPEAKE BAY.

WL BE AWAITING 00Z GDNC. MAY MAKE SOME DECISION AT THAT TIME IF
SUFFICIENT CONSISTENCY DISPLAYED ON WHERE THE BACK EGDE OF THE
PCPN SHIELD WL RESIDE.

FURTHER WEST...ANOTHER INCH OR SO OF SNOW IS LIKELY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL MD...THE EASTERN WV PANHANDLE...THE WASHINGTON DC METRO
AND NORTHERN VA. REFRAINED FROM EXTENDING THE WINTER WX ADVISORY
AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD THAT ADDITIONAL SNOW WOULD TAKE
PLACE AFTER EVENING RUSH HOUR...AND END BEFORE THE TUESDAY MORNING
RUSH.

THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH
GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON WHETHER IT PROGRESSES FARTHER THAN LONG
ISLAND. BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION CONTINUES TO
BE ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF CHESAPEAKE BAY...WITH SNOW OTHERWISE
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA. COLD AIR WILL ADVECT INTO
THE REGION WITH NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE
LOW...WITH GUSTY WINDS LIKELY, HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WITH BE IN THE
30S.

COMBINATION OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND THE OFFSHORE
LOW EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE BRING IN VERY COLD AIR FROM
CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS OVER MUCH
OF THE CWA...WITH LOW 20S ALONG AND EAST OF I-95. ANY REMAINING
PRECIP COMES TO AN END TUESDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT POTENTIAL UPSLOPE
SNOW OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES ABOUT
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY TO ALLOW FOR A GREAT LAKES LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AND
LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE LOW`S WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. AS WE VENTURE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE LOW PASSES
OVERHEAD WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT...SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AND
COULD LEAD TO A SMALL ACCUMULATION. ADDITIONAL AND HIGHER
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES IN THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS DUE TO UPSLOPE WIND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
BY ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEGREES.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE
WEST AND NORTH AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PIVOTS
ACROSS THE REGION. A DOWNSLOPING WIND OFF OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS
AND BLUE RIDGE SHOULD SUPPRESS A LOT OF THE SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR DRIER AND MORE PEACEFUL WEATHER CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&