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000
FXUS61 KRNK 240335
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1135 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WHILE MAINTAINING CONTROL OF THE AREA WEATHER INTO MONDAY.
THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY ON THE
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH JUST AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE FOR A LATE DAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER TO THE
EAST...OUR CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1100 PM EDT SATURDAY...

TEMPERATURES OVERALL ACROSS THE CWA SLOWER TO COOL THAN
ANTICIPATED...IN SOME CASES BY SEVERAL DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE
URBAN AREAS...E.G. ROA. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS OVERNIGHT
MINS MIGHT BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN OBSERVED SAT MORNING WITH
DEWPOINTS CREEPING UP INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S. THUS...HAVE
INCREASED MIN TEMPS ACCORDINGLY WITH A BLEND OF EXISTING FORECAST
AND MODELS/MOS FORECASTS. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED WITH
ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

AS OF 250 PM EDT SATURDAY...

AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A VERY PLEASANT SATURDAY
UNDERWAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS GENERATING SOME
CUMULUS CLOUDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...TOPPED BY SOME
MID/HIGH CLOUDS MAKING THEIR WAY IN FROM THE WEST AS THEY SPILL OVER
THE UPPER RIDGE. THE CU WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING BUT THE
MID/HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR EAST CONTINUING TO BRING LIGHT WINDS TO THE AREA...THIS
SHOULD BE A DECENT SET UP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. IT DOES NOT
LOOK QUITE AS COOL AS LAST NIGHT WITH DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO BE A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER. EXPECT READINGS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S EAST OF THE RIDGE
WITH LOWER 40S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEYS...TO UPPER 40S/LOW 50S
EAST. FOG FORMATION WAS CONFINED TO ISOLATED PATCHES ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE NEW RIVER AND DO NOT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD
TONIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A CARBON COPY OF TODAY...DOES ANYONE KNOW
WHAT A CARBON COPY IS THESE DAYS?...WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING UP A FEW
DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM EDT SATURDAY...

WITH AN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD
BE EXCELLENT FOR THOSE PARTICIPATING IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HEIGHTS ALOFT
BUILDING THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST FOR TUESDAY.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES
EACH DAY DURING THIS PERIOD AND INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS.
INCREASED HIGHS ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO MONDAY WITH SURGING 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES.

CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM IN NW NC/FAR SW VA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS HIGHER THETA-E AIR ADVECTS INTO THIS REGION AND LOCAL
TERRAIN CONVERGENCE. ALTHOUGH IF THE SLOWER ECMWF VERIFIES...THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL AGAIN BE VOID OF PRECIPITATION. FOR
NOW...WILL ONLY KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON SHOWER/STORM
IN NW NC/FAR SW VA.

PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE IN THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY MOVES INTO THE REGION ON THE FAR EASTERN FRINGE OF THE
CENTRAL U.S. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. A DEEP SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
HELP PUSH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES BY TUESDAY HELPING TO
INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS. INCREASING
CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY SHOULD KEEP HIGHS ON TUESDAY SIMILAR TO
MONDAY...BUT IN THE EAST...CONTINUED TO GO A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE
GUIDANCE VALUES FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...

A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED AND DAILY CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN.

GEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW PWATS THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABV NORMAL. ALOFT...LONG RANGE MODELS
TAKE A CENTRAL U.S. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND WEAKEN IT AS IT MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN U.S. RIDGE. THIS WILL HELP DRAG A WEAK BOUNDARY
INTO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL HELP INCREASE COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION.

IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST LATE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...AS A NOSE OF 16+C 850MB
TEMPS NOSES INTO OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM EDT SATURDAY...

EXPECTING OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY AT 5-12 KTS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SHEARED WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE CROSSING THE REGION
MAY SPREAD A FEW BANDS OF CU/AC ACROSS WESTERN LOCATIONS THIS
EVENING... WITH SOME RESIDUAL MID DECK POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME
AT KBCB/KROA/KBLF SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER WILL ONLY KEEP
SCATTERED VFR CU FOR NOW WITH PERIODS OF BROKEN MID DECK MOUNTAINS
GIVEN DRYNESS AND LACK OF UPSTREAM CLOUDINESS THIS EVENING.
RADIATIONAL COOLING COULD AGAIN LEAD TO SOME LATE NIGHT RIVER
VALLEY FOG BUT GIVEN SUCH A DRY/MIXED ENVIRONMENT FROM THIS
AFTERNOON APPEARS ANY FOG QUITE ISOLATED IF AT ALL AGAIN TONIGHT.
MAY LEAVE IN A BRIEF TEMPO GROUP AT KLWB FOR PATCHY FOG LATER
OTHERWISE LEAVING OUT MENTION ELSEWHERE. A BIT MORE CU POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AS MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNS...BUT OVERALL
MOSTLY SCATTERED AT THIS POINT WITH PERHAPS THE RIDGES SEEING SOME
BROKEN CIGS IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE. SOUTHWEST WINDS IN RETURN FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE BY
MONDAY. THIS MAY BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOUNTAIN AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY BY LATER
TUESDAY...WHEN PERIODS OF MVFR COULD OCCUR MAINLY BLUE RIDGE WEST.
WEAK TROUGH DRIFTS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY BEFORE SLIDING EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE LATER THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING THE BEST
CHANCES OF SEEING MORE WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON/EVENING SUB-VFR IN
SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY MORE ISOLATED NATURE
COVERAGE ACROSS THE EAST ON THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY LATE DAY CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...MBS/RAB
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...PH
AVIATION...JH/MBS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 240335
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1135 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WHILE MAINTAINING CONTROL OF THE AREA WEATHER INTO MONDAY.
THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY ON THE
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH JUST AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE FOR A LATE DAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER TO THE
EAST...OUR CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1100 PM EDT SATURDAY...

TEMPERATURES OVERALL ACROSS THE CWA SLOWER TO COOL THAN
ANTICIPATED...IN SOME CASES BY SEVERAL DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE
URBAN AREAS...E.G. ROA. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS OVERNIGHT
MINS MIGHT BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN OBSERVED SAT MORNING WITH
DEWPOINTS CREEPING UP INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S. THUS...HAVE
INCREASED MIN TEMPS ACCORDINGLY WITH A BLEND OF EXISTING FORECAST
AND MODELS/MOS FORECASTS. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED WITH
ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

AS OF 250 PM EDT SATURDAY...

AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A VERY PLEASANT SATURDAY
UNDERWAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS GENERATING SOME
CUMULUS CLOUDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...TOPPED BY SOME
MID/HIGH CLOUDS MAKING THEIR WAY IN FROM THE WEST AS THEY SPILL OVER
THE UPPER RIDGE. THE CU WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING BUT THE
MID/HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR EAST CONTINUING TO BRING LIGHT WINDS TO THE AREA...THIS
SHOULD BE A DECENT SET UP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. IT DOES NOT
LOOK QUITE AS COOL AS LAST NIGHT WITH DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO BE A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER. EXPECT READINGS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S EAST OF THE RIDGE
WITH LOWER 40S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEYS...TO UPPER 40S/LOW 50S
EAST. FOG FORMATION WAS CONFINED TO ISOLATED PATCHES ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE NEW RIVER AND DO NOT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD
TONIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A CARBON COPY OF TODAY...DOES ANYONE KNOW
WHAT A CARBON COPY IS THESE DAYS?...WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING UP A FEW
DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM EDT SATURDAY...

WITH AN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD
BE EXCELLENT FOR THOSE PARTICIPATING IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HEIGHTS ALOFT
BUILDING THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST FOR TUESDAY.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES
EACH DAY DURING THIS PERIOD AND INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS.
INCREASED HIGHS ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO MONDAY WITH SURGING 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES.

CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM IN NW NC/FAR SW VA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS HIGHER THETA-E AIR ADVECTS INTO THIS REGION AND LOCAL
TERRAIN CONVERGENCE. ALTHOUGH IF THE SLOWER ECMWF VERIFIES...THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL AGAIN BE VOID OF PRECIPITATION. FOR
NOW...WILL ONLY KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON SHOWER/STORM
IN NW NC/FAR SW VA.

PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE IN THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY MOVES INTO THE REGION ON THE FAR EASTERN FRINGE OF THE
CENTRAL U.S. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. A DEEP SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
HELP PUSH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES BY TUESDAY HELPING TO
INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS. INCREASING
CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY SHOULD KEEP HIGHS ON TUESDAY SIMILAR TO
MONDAY...BUT IN THE EAST...CONTINUED TO GO A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE
GUIDANCE VALUES FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...

A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED AND DAILY CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN.

GEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW PWATS THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABV NORMAL. ALOFT...LONG RANGE MODELS
TAKE A CENTRAL U.S. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND WEAKEN IT AS IT MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN U.S. RIDGE. THIS WILL HELP DRAG A WEAK BOUNDARY
INTO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL HELP INCREASE COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION.

IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST LATE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...AS A NOSE OF 16+C 850MB
TEMPS NOSES INTO OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM EDT SATURDAY...

EXPECTING OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY AT 5-12 KTS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SHEARED WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE CROSSING THE REGION
MAY SPREAD A FEW BANDS OF CU/AC ACROSS WESTERN LOCATIONS THIS
EVENING... WITH SOME RESIDUAL MID DECK POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME
AT KBCB/KROA/KBLF SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER WILL ONLY KEEP
SCATTERED VFR CU FOR NOW WITH PERIODS OF BROKEN MID DECK MOUNTAINS
GIVEN DRYNESS AND LACK OF UPSTREAM CLOUDINESS THIS EVENING.
RADIATIONAL COOLING COULD AGAIN LEAD TO SOME LATE NIGHT RIVER
VALLEY FOG BUT GIVEN SUCH A DRY/MIXED ENVIRONMENT FROM THIS
AFTERNOON APPEARS ANY FOG QUITE ISOLATED IF AT ALL AGAIN TONIGHT.
MAY LEAVE IN A BRIEF TEMPO GROUP AT KLWB FOR PATCHY FOG LATER
OTHERWISE LEAVING OUT MENTION ELSEWHERE. A BIT MORE CU POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AS MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNS...BUT OVERALL
MOSTLY SCATTERED AT THIS POINT WITH PERHAPS THE RIDGES SEEING SOME
BROKEN CIGS IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE. SOUTHWEST WINDS IN RETURN FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE BY
MONDAY. THIS MAY BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOUNTAIN AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY BY LATER
TUESDAY...WHEN PERIODS OF MVFR COULD OCCUR MAINLY BLUE RIDGE WEST.
WEAK TROUGH DRIFTS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY BEFORE SLIDING EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE LATER THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING THE BEST
CHANCES OF SEEING MORE WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON/EVENING SUB-VFR IN
SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY MORE ISOLATED NATURE
COVERAGE ACROSS THE EAST ON THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY LATE DAY CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...MBS/RAB
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...PH
AVIATION...JH/MBS



000
FXUS61 KRNK 240335
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1135 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WHILE MAINTAINING CONTROL OF THE AREA WEATHER INTO MONDAY.
THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY ON THE
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH JUST AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE FOR A LATE DAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER TO THE
EAST...OUR CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1100 PM EDT SATURDAY...

TEMPERATURES OVERALL ACROSS THE CWA SLOWER TO COOL THAN
ANTICIPATED...IN SOME CASES BY SEVERAL DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE
URBAN AREAS...E.G. ROA. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS OVERNIGHT
MINS MIGHT BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN OBSERVED SAT MORNING WITH
DEWPOINTS CREEPING UP INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S. THUS...HAVE
INCREASED MIN TEMPS ACCORDINGLY WITH A BLEND OF EXISTING FORECAST
AND MODELS/MOS FORECASTS. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED WITH
ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

AS OF 250 PM EDT SATURDAY...

AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A VERY PLEASANT SATURDAY
UNDERWAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS GENERATING SOME
CUMULUS CLOUDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...TOPPED BY SOME
MID/HIGH CLOUDS MAKING THEIR WAY IN FROM THE WEST AS THEY SPILL OVER
THE UPPER RIDGE. THE CU WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING BUT THE
MID/HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR EAST CONTINUING TO BRING LIGHT WINDS TO THE AREA...THIS
SHOULD BE A DECENT SET UP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. IT DOES NOT
LOOK QUITE AS COOL AS LAST NIGHT WITH DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO BE A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER. EXPECT READINGS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S EAST OF THE RIDGE
WITH LOWER 40S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEYS...TO UPPER 40S/LOW 50S
EAST. FOG FORMATION WAS CONFINED TO ISOLATED PATCHES ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE NEW RIVER AND DO NOT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD
TONIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A CARBON COPY OF TODAY...DOES ANYONE KNOW
WHAT A CARBON COPY IS THESE DAYS?...WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING UP A FEW
DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM EDT SATURDAY...

WITH AN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD
BE EXCELLENT FOR THOSE PARTICIPATING IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HEIGHTS ALOFT
BUILDING THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST FOR TUESDAY.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES
EACH DAY DURING THIS PERIOD AND INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS.
INCREASED HIGHS ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO MONDAY WITH SURGING 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES.

CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM IN NW NC/FAR SW VA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS HIGHER THETA-E AIR ADVECTS INTO THIS REGION AND LOCAL
TERRAIN CONVERGENCE. ALTHOUGH IF THE SLOWER ECMWF VERIFIES...THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL AGAIN BE VOID OF PRECIPITATION. FOR
NOW...WILL ONLY KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON SHOWER/STORM
IN NW NC/FAR SW VA.

PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE IN THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY MOVES INTO THE REGION ON THE FAR EASTERN FRINGE OF THE
CENTRAL U.S. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. A DEEP SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
HELP PUSH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES BY TUESDAY HELPING TO
INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS. INCREASING
CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY SHOULD KEEP HIGHS ON TUESDAY SIMILAR TO
MONDAY...BUT IN THE EAST...CONTINUED TO GO A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE
GUIDANCE VALUES FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...

A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED AND DAILY CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN.

GEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW PWATS THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABV NORMAL. ALOFT...LONG RANGE MODELS
TAKE A CENTRAL U.S. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND WEAKEN IT AS IT MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN U.S. RIDGE. THIS WILL HELP DRAG A WEAK BOUNDARY
INTO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL HELP INCREASE COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION.

IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST LATE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...AS A NOSE OF 16+C 850MB
TEMPS NOSES INTO OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM EDT SATURDAY...

EXPECTING OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY AT 5-12 KTS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SHEARED WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE CROSSING THE REGION
MAY SPREAD A FEW BANDS OF CU/AC ACROSS WESTERN LOCATIONS THIS
EVENING... WITH SOME RESIDUAL MID DECK POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME
AT KBCB/KROA/KBLF SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER WILL ONLY KEEP
SCATTERED VFR CU FOR NOW WITH PERIODS OF BROKEN MID DECK MOUNTAINS
GIVEN DRYNESS AND LACK OF UPSTREAM CLOUDINESS THIS EVENING.
RADIATIONAL COOLING COULD AGAIN LEAD TO SOME LATE NIGHT RIVER
VALLEY FOG BUT GIVEN SUCH A DRY/MIXED ENVIRONMENT FROM THIS
AFTERNOON APPEARS ANY FOG QUITE ISOLATED IF AT ALL AGAIN TONIGHT.
MAY LEAVE IN A BRIEF TEMPO GROUP AT KLWB FOR PATCHY FOG LATER
OTHERWISE LEAVING OUT MENTION ELSEWHERE. A BIT MORE CU POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AS MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNS...BUT OVERALL
MOSTLY SCATTERED AT THIS POINT WITH PERHAPS THE RIDGES SEEING SOME
BROKEN CIGS IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE. SOUTHWEST WINDS IN RETURN FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE BY
MONDAY. THIS MAY BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOUNTAIN AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY BY LATER
TUESDAY...WHEN PERIODS OF MVFR COULD OCCUR MAINLY BLUE RIDGE WEST.
WEAK TROUGH DRIFTS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY BEFORE SLIDING EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE LATER THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING THE BEST
CHANCES OF SEEING MORE WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON/EVENING SUB-VFR IN
SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY MORE ISOLATED NATURE
COVERAGE ACROSS THE EAST ON THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY LATE DAY CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...MBS/RAB
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...PH
AVIATION...JH/MBS



000
FXUS61 KRNK 240335
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1135 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WHILE MAINTAINING CONTROL OF THE AREA WEATHER INTO MONDAY.
THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY ON THE
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH JUST AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE FOR A LATE DAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER TO THE
EAST...OUR CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1100 PM EDT SATURDAY...

TEMPERATURES OVERALL ACROSS THE CWA SLOWER TO COOL THAN
ANTICIPATED...IN SOME CASES BY SEVERAL DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE
URBAN AREAS...E.G. ROA. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS OVERNIGHT
MINS MIGHT BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN OBSERVED SAT MORNING WITH
DEWPOINTS CREEPING UP INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S. THUS...HAVE
INCREASED MIN TEMPS ACCORDINGLY WITH A BLEND OF EXISTING FORECAST
AND MODELS/MOS FORECASTS. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED WITH
ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

AS OF 250 PM EDT SATURDAY...

AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A VERY PLEASANT SATURDAY
UNDERWAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS GENERATING SOME
CUMULUS CLOUDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...TOPPED BY SOME
MID/HIGH CLOUDS MAKING THEIR WAY IN FROM THE WEST AS THEY SPILL OVER
THE UPPER RIDGE. THE CU WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING BUT THE
MID/HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR EAST CONTINUING TO BRING LIGHT WINDS TO THE AREA...THIS
SHOULD BE A DECENT SET UP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. IT DOES NOT
LOOK QUITE AS COOL AS LAST NIGHT WITH DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO BE A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER. EXPECT READINGS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S EAST OF THE RIDGE
WITH LOWER 40S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEYS...TO UPPER 40S/LOW 50S
EAST. FOG FORMATION WAS CONFINED TO ISOLATED PATCHES ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE NEW RIVER AND DO NOT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD
TONIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A CARBON COPY OF TODAY...DOES ANYONE KNOW
WHAT A CARBON COPY IS THESE DAYS?...WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING UP A FEW
DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM EDT SATURDAY...

WITH AN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD
BE EXCELLENT FOR THOSE PARTICIPATING IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HEIGHTS ALOFT
BUILDING THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST FOR TUESDAY.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES
EACH DAY DURING THIS PERIOD AND INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS.
INCREASED HIGHS ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO MONDAY WITH SURGING 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES.

CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM IN NW NC/FAR SW VA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS HIGHER THETA-E AIR ADVECTS INTO THIS REGION AND LOCAL
TERRAIN CONVERGENCE. ALTHOUGH IF THE SLOWER ECMWF VERIFIES...THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL AGAIN BE VOID OF PRECIPITATION. FOR
NOW...WILL ONLY KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON SHOWER/STORM
IN NW NC/FAR SW VA.

PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE IN THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY MOVES INTO THE REGION ON THE FAR EASTERN FRINGE OF THE
CENTRAL U.S. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. A DEEP SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
HELP PUSH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES BY TUESDAY HELPING TO
INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS. INCREASING
CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY SHOULD KEEP HIGHS ON TUESDAY SIMILAR TO
MONDAY...BUT IN THE EAST...CONTINUED TO GO A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE
GUIDANCE VALUES FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...

A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED AND DAILY CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN.

GEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW PWATS THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABV NORMAL. ALOFT...LONG RANGE MODELS
TAKE A CENTRAL U.S. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND WEAKEN IT AS IT MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN U.S. RIDGE. THIS WILL HELP DRAG A WEAK BOUNDARY
INTO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL HELP INCREASE COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION.

IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST LATE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...AS A NOSE OF 16+C 850MB
TEMPS NOSES INTO OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM EDT SATURDAY...

EXPECTING OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY AT 5-12 KTS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SHEARED WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE CROSSING THE REGION
MAY SPREAD A FEW BANDS OF CU/AC ACROSS WESTERN LOCATIONS THIS
EVENING... WITH SOME RESIDUAL MID DECK POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME
AT KBCB/KROA/KBLF SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER WILL ONLY KEEP
SCATTERED VFR CU FOR NOW WITH PERIODS OF BROKEN MID DECK MOUNTAINS
GIVEN DRYNESS AND LACK OF UPSTREAM CLOUDINESS THIS EVENING.
RADIATIONAL COOLING COULD AGAIN LEAD TO SOME LATE NIGHT RIVER
VALLEY FOG BUT GIVEN SUCH A DRY/MIXED ENVIRONMENT FROM THIS
AFTERNOON APPEARS ANY FOG QUITE ISOLATED IF AT ALL AGAIN TONIGHT.
MAY LEAVE IN A BRIEF TEMPO GROUP AT KLWB FOR PATCHY FOG LATER
OTHERWISE LEAVING OUT MENTION ELSEWHERE. A BIT MORE CU POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AS MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNS...BUT OVERALL
MOSTLY SCATTERED AT THIS POINT WITH PERHAPS THE RIDGES SEEING SOME
BROKEN CIGS IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE. SOUTHWEST WINDS IN RETURN FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE BY
MONDAY. THIS MAY BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOUNTAIN AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY BY LATER
TUESDAY...WHEN PERIODS OF MVFR COULD OCCUR MAINLY BLUE RIDGE WEST.
WEAK TROUGH DRIFTS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY BEFORE SLIDING EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE LATER THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING THE BEST
CHANCES OF SEEING MORE WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON/EVENING SUB-VFR IN
SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY MORE ISOLATED NATURE
COVERAGE ACROSS THE EAST ON THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY LATE DAY CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...MBS/RAB
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...PH
AVIATION...JH/MBS



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 240144
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
944 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...THEN
BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED IMMEDIATELY OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING
AND WILL SLOWLY SHIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT
LIGHT SE FLOW AOB 5 MPH...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 5-10 MPH ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. A CLEAR COOL NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WITH MID 50S OVER COASTAL
AREAS OF SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC HIGH BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST THRU THE PERIOD.
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THIS RIDGE KEEPS AIRMASS DRY ALONG WITH INCRG H85
/ DP TMPS. XPCT MSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND MSTLY CLR NIGHTS WITH A WRMG
TREND. HIGHS SUN M-U70S CSTL AREAS...U70S-L80S W OF THE BAY. LOWS
SUN NIGHT U50S- M60S. HIGHS MON L-M80S. LOWS MON NITE M-U60S.
HIGHS TUE 85-90. COOLER AT THE BEACHES EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EACH
DAY AND TYPICAL DIURNAL CHANCES FOR SHRAS/TSTMS ACROSS NW AREAS. HI
TEMPS WILL AVG FM THE MID 80S TO NR 90 WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPR 60S EACH DAY...ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE
WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN THRU THE PERIOD AS WAVES OF LO PRES PASS
MAINLY NW OF THE LOCAL AREA. POPS WILL BE 20-30% EACH AFTN/EVENG FOR
ALL AREAS EXCEPT SE VA/NE NC...WITH NO REASON TO GO HIGHER AT THIS
POINT DUE TO WEAK FORCING AND UPR-LEVEL RIDGING.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION...AND WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH
THE PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KTS OR LESS OUT OF THE S/SSE ON
SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW BRIEF GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT
KRIC/KSBY. VFR EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING OFF THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS HI PRES CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLC WITH
WINDS AVGG BLO 10 KT. THE HI WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE LATER THIS AFTN AND
EVENG WITH WINDS BCMG SELY OVER ALL WTRS. FAIRLY STAGNANT WX PATTERN
THEN INTO ERLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WITH THE SFC HI REMAINING OFFSHORE
AND LO PRES STAYING WELL W OF THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
PERSISTENT SLY FLOW TO DEVELOP...AVGG 10-15 KT. CONDS MAY COME CLOSE
TO SCA CRITERIA OVER THE BAY LATE EACH AFTN/EVENG BUT FOR NOW
FORECASTING MAINLY ~15 KT THERE WITH 2-3 FT WAVES. EXPECT 2-3 FT
SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS...UP TO 4 FT AT TIMES FOR NRN WTRS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JAO/WRS
MARINE...MAS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 240144
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
944 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...THEN
BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED IMMEDIATELY OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING
AND WILL SLOWLY SHIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT
LIGHT SE FLOW AOB 5 MPH...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 5-10 MPH ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. A CLEAR COOL NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WITH MID 50S OVER COASTAL
AREAS OF SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC HIGH BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST THRU THE PERIOD.
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THIS RIDGE KEEPS AIRMASS DRY ALONG WITH INCRG H85
/ DP TMPS. XPCT MSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND MSTLY CLR NIGHTS WITH A WRMG
TREND. HIGHS SUN M-U70S CSTL AREAS...U70S-L80S W OF THE BAY. LOWS
SUN NIGHT U50S- M60S. HIGHS MON L-M80S. LOWS MON NITE M-U60S.
HIGHS TUE 85-90. COOLER AT THE BEACHES EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EACH
DAY AND TYPICAL DIURNAL CHANCES FOR SHRAS/TSTMS ACROSS NW AREAS. HI
TEMPS WILL AVG FM THE MID 80S TO NR 90 WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPR 60S EACH DAY...ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE
WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN THRU THE PERIOD AS WAVES OF LO PRES PASS
MAINLY NW OF THE LOCAL AREA. POPS WILL BE 20-30% EACH AFTN/EVENG FOR
ALL AREAS EXCEPT SE VA/NE NC...WITH NO REASON TO GO HIGHER AT THIS
POINT DUE TO WEAK FORCING AND UPR-LEVEL RIDGING.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION...AND WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH
THE PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KTS OR LESS OUT OF THE S/SSE ON
SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW BRIEF GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT
KRIC/KSBY. VFR EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING OFF THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS HI PRES CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLC WITH
WINDS AVGG BLO 10 KT. THE HI WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE LATER THIS AFTN AND
EVENG WITH WINDS BCMG SELY OVER ALL WTRS. FAIRLY STAGNANT WX PATTERN
THEN INTO ERLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WITH THE SFC HI REMAINING OFFSHORE
AND LO PRES STAYING WELL W OF THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
PERSISTENT SLY FLOW TO DEVELOP...AVGG 10-15 KT. CONDS MAY COME CLOSE
TO SCA CRITERIA OVER THE BAY LATE EACH AFTN/EVENG BUT FOR NOW
FORECASTING MAINLY ~15 KT THERE WITH 2-3 FT WAVES. EXPECT 2-3 FT
SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS...UP TO 4 FT AT TIMES FOR NRN WTRS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JAO/WRS
MARINE...MAS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 240144
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
944 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...THEN
BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED IMMEDIATELY OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING
AND WILL SLOWLY SHIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT
LIGHT SE FLOW AOB 5 MPH...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 5-10 MPH ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. A CLEAR COOL NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WITH MID 50S OVER COASTAL
AREAS OF SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC HIGH BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST THRU THE PERIOD.
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THIS RIDGE KEEPS AIRMASS DRY ALONG WITH INCRG H85
/ DP TMPS. XPCT MSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND MSTLY CLR NIGHTS WITH A WRMG
TREND. HIGHS SUN M-U70S CSTL AREAS...U70S-L80S W OF THE BAY. LOWS
SUN NIGHT U50S- M60S. HIGHS MON L-M80S. LOWS MON NITE M-U60S.
HIGHS TUE 85-90. COOLER AT THE BEACHES EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EACH
DAY AND TYPICAL DIURNAL CHANCES FOR SHRAS/TSTMS ACROSS NW AREAS. HI
TEMPS WILL AVG FM THE MID 80S TO NR 90 WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPR 60S EACH DAY...ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE
WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN THRU THE PERIOD AS WAVES OF LO PRES PASS
MAINLY NW OF THE LOCAL AREA. POPS WILL BE 20-30% EACH AFTN/EVENG FOR
ALL AREAS EXCEPT SE VA/NE NC...WITH NO REASON TO GO HIGHER AT THIS
POINT DUE TO WEAK FORCING AND UPR-LEVEL RIDGING.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION...AND WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH
THE PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KTS OR LESS OUT OF THE S/SSE ON
SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW BRIEF GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT
KRIC/KSBY. VFR EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING OFF THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS HI PRES CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLC WITH
WINDS AVGG BLO 10 KT. THE HI WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE LATER THIS AFTN AND
EVENG WITH WINDS BCMG SELY OVER ALL WTRS. FAIRLY STAGNANT WX PATTERN
THEN INTO ERLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WITH THE SFC HI REMAINING OFFSHORE
AND LO PRES STAYING WELL W OF THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
PERSISTENT SLY FLOW TO DEVELOP...AVGG 10-15 KT. CONDS MAY COME CLOSE
TO SCA CRITERIA OVER THE BAY LATE EACH AFTN/EVENG BUT FOR NOW
FORECASTING MAINLY ~15 KT THERE WITH 2-3 FT WAVES. EXPECT 2-3 FT
SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS...UP TO 4 FT AT TIMES FOR NRN WTRS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JAO/WRS
MARINE...MAS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 240144
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
944 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...THEN
BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED IMMEDIATELY OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING
AND WILL SLOWLY SHIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT
LIGHT SE FLOW AOB 5 MPH...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 5-10 MPH ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. A CLEAR COOL NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WITH MID 50S OVER COASTAL
AREAS OF SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC HIGH BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST THRU THE PERIOD.
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THIS RIDGE KEEPS AIRMASS DRY ALONG WITH INCRG H85
/ DP TMPS. XPCT MSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND MSTLY CLR NIGHTS WITH A WRMG
TREND. HIGHS SUN M-U70S CSTL AREAS...U70S-L80S W OF THE BAY. LOWS
SUN NIGHT U50S- M60S. HIGHS MON L-M80S. LOWS MON NITE M-U60S.
HIGHS TUE 85-90. COOLER AT THE BEACHES EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EACH
DAY AND TYPICAL DIURNAL CHANCES FOR SHRAS/TSTMS ACROSS NW AREAS. HI
TEMPS WILL AVG FM THE MID 80S TO NR 90 WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPR 60S EACH DAY...ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE
WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN THRU THE PERIOD AS WAVES OF LO PRES PASS
MAINLY NW OF THE LOCAL AREA. POPS WILL BE 20-30% EACH AFTN/EVENG FOR
ALL AREAS EXCEPT SE VA/NE NC...WITH NO REASON TO GO HIGHER AT THIS
POINT DUE TO WEAK FORCING AND UPR-LEVEL RIDGING.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION...AND WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH
THE PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KTS OR LESS OUT OF THE S/SSE ON
SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW BRIEF GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT
KRIC/KSBY. VFR EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING OFF THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS HI PRES CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLC WITH
WINDS AVGG BLO 10 KT. THE HI WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE LATER THIS AFTN AND
EVENG WITH WINDS BCMG SELY OVER ALL WTRS. FAIRLY STAGNANT WX PATTERN
THEN INTO ERLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WITH THE SFC HI REMAINING OFFSHORE
AND LO PRES STAYING WELL W OF THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
PERSISTENT SLY FLOW TO DEVELOP...AVGG 10-15 KT. CONDS MAY COME CLOSE
TO SCA CRITERIA OVER THE BAY LATE EACH AFTN/EVENG BUT FOR NOW
FORECASTING MAINLY ~15 KT THERE WITH 2-3 FT WAVES. EXPECT 2-3 FT
SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS...UP TO 4 FT AT TIMES FOR NRN WTRS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JAO/WRS
MARINE...MAS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 240144
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
944 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...THEN
BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED IMMEDIATELY OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING
AND WILL SLOWLY SHIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT
LIGHT SE FLOW AOB 5 MPH...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 5-10 MPH ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. A CLEAR COOL NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WITH MID 50S OVER COASTAL
AREAS OF SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC HIGH BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST THRU THE PERIOD.
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THIS RIDGE KEEPS AIRMASS DRY ALONG WITH INCRG H85
/ DP TMPS. XPCT MSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND MSTLY CLR NIGHTS WITH A WRMG
TREND. HIGHS SUN M-U70S CSTL AREAS...U70S-L80S W OF THE BAY. LOWS
SUN NIGHT U50S- M60S. HIGHS MON L-M80S. LOWS MON NITE M-U60S.
HIGHS TUE 85-90. COOLER AT THE BEACHES EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EACH
DAY AND TYPICAL DIURNAL CHANCES FOR SHRAS/TSTMS ACROSS NW AREAS. HI
TEMPS WILL AVG FM THE MID 80S TO NR 90 WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPR 60S EACH DAY...ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE
WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN THRU THE PERIOD AS WAVES OF LO PRES PASS
MAINLY NW OF THE LOCAL AREA. POPS WILL BE 20-30% EACH AFTN/EVENG FOR
ALL AREAS EXCEPT SE VA/NE NC...WITH NO REASON TO GO HIGHER AT THIS
POINT DUE TO WEAK FORCING AND UPR-LEVEL RIDGING.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION...AND WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH
THE PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KTS OR LESS OUT OF THE S/SSE ON
SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW BRIEF GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT
KRIC/KSBY. VFR EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING OFF THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS HI PRES CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLC WITH
WINDS AVGG BLO 10 KT. THE HI WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE LATER THIS AFTN AND
EVENG WITH WINDS BCMG SELY OVER ALL WTRS. FAIRLY STAGNANT WX PATTERN
THEN INTO ERLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WITH THE SFC HI REMAINING OFFSHORE
AND LO PRES STAYING WELL W OF THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
PERSISTENT SLY FLOW TO DEVELOP...AVGG 10-15 KT. CONDS MAY COME CLOSE
TO SCA CRITERIA OVER THE BAY LATE EACH AFTN/EVENG BUT FOR NOW
FORECASTING MAINLY ~15 KT THERE WITH 2-3 FT WAVES. EXPECT 2-3 FT
SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS...UP TO 4 FT AT TIMES FOR NRN WTRS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JAO/WRS
MARINE...MAS



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 240144
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
944 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...THEN
BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED IMMEDIATELY OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING
AND WILL SLOWLY SHIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT
LIGHT SE FLOW AOB 5 MPH...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 5-10 MPH ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. A CLEAR COOL NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WITH MID 50S OVER COASTAL
AREAS OF SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC HIGH BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST THRU THE PERIOD.
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THIS RIDGE KEEPS AIRMASS DRY ALONG WITH INCRG H85
/ DP TMPS. XPCT MSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND MSTLY CLR NIGHTS WITH A WRMG
TREND. HIGHS SUN M-U70S CSTL AREAS...U70S-L80S W OF THE BAY. LOWS
SUN NIGHT U50S- M60S. HIGHS MON L-M80S. LOWS MON NITE M-U60S.
HIGHS TUE 85-90. COOLER AT THE BEACHES EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EACH
DAY AND TYPICAL DIURNAL CHANCES FOR SHRAS/TSTMS ACROSS NW AREAS. HI
TEMPS WILL AVG FM THE MID 80S TO NR 90 WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPR 60S EACH DAY...ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE
WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN THRU THE PERIOD AS WAVES OF LO PRES PASS
MAINLY NW OF THE LOCAL AREA. POPS WILL BE 20-30% EACH AFTN/EVENG FOR
ALL AREAS EXCEPT SE VA/NE NC...WITH NO REASON TO GO HIGHER AT THIS
POINT DUE TO WEAK FORCING AND UPR-LEVEL RIDGING.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION...AND WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH
THE PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KTS OR LESS OUT OF THE S/SSE ON
SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW BRIEF GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT
KRIC/KSBY. VFR EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING OFF THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS HI PRES CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLC WITH
WINDS AVGG BLO 10 KT. THE HI WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE LATER THIS AFTN AND
EVENG WITH WINDS BCMG SELY OVER ALL WTRS. FAIRLY STAGNANT WX PATTERN
THEN INTO ERLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WITH THE SFC HI REMAINING OFFSHORE
AND LO PRES STAYING WELL W OF THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
PERSISTENT SLY FLOW TO DEVELOP...AVGG 10-15 KT. CONDS MAY COME CLOSE
TO SCA CRITERIA OVER THE BAY LATE EACH AFTN/EVENG BUT FOR NOW
FORECASTING MAINLY ~15 KT THERE WITH 2-3 FT WAVES. EXPECT 2-3 FT
SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS...UP TO 4 FT AT TIMES FOR NRN WTRS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JAO/WRS
MARINE...MAS



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KLWX 240112
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
912 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AND
LINGER TO THE EAST THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. THE RETURN FLOW WILL
RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY. HOT AND HUMID
WEATHER WILL DOMINATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BETWEEN THE HIGH TO
THE EAST AND AN APPROACHING FRONT TO THE WEST...WITH AN INCREASING
RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING EAST OF THE
DELMARVA TONIGHT UNDER A WNW FLOW ALOFT. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXIST
ACROSS THE AREA NOW...AND ONLY SOME STRANDS OF THIN CIRRUS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WITH DEW POINTS STILL IN THE 40S...WITH 30S
IN THE N...TEMPS ARE FALLING QUICKLY WITH SUNSET. WHILE WARMER
THAN LAST NIGHT...MANY AREAS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
MAY. THE LOWEST TEMPS WILL BE THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AND RURAL
LOW-LYING AREAS (MID-UPPER 40S)...WHILE MID RANGE ELEVATIONS
(UNDER INFLUENCE OF AN INVERSION) AND URBAN AREAS WILL REMAIN IN
THE MID 50S.

WITH THE HIGH CONTINUING TO MOVE OFFSHORE...WARMER AIR MOVING IN
ALOFT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER ON
SUNDAY. AN APPROACHING AND BUILDING RIDGE AXIS MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE...PREVENTING ANY
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...WARM ADVECTION WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN
INCREASED CLOUD COVER BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS WILL BE
ABOUT 20 DEGREES HIGHER ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON COMPARED TO CURRENT
READINGS...BUT NOT QUITE IN THE `HUMID` RANGE JUST YET. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL START TO BECOME NOTICEABLE BUT NOTHING PARTICULARLY
BREEZY IS EXPECTED INLAND THRU SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE EAST COAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT HEAT AND HUMIDITY. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 IN DC/BALTIMORE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA BUT THE MAIN
PLUME OF HIGH PWATS WILL BE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY.
TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A CU FIELD ALONG THE
RIDGES AND CANT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER.

THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVOLVE DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL WAVES OF ENERGY RIDE ALONG THE OHIO
VALLEY. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED FROM THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS TO THE BLUE RIDGE. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY TO
REACH NEAR 90 OR INTO THE LOWER 90S WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHES A LITTLE FARTHER
EAST TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND I-95 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A FEW ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL APPROACH 90 WITH A WARM
AND STICKY NIGHT IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT.

A STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...KEEPING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND GUSTY
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND TO START THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
AND LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCAL ZONE OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THROUGH SUNDAY. IF A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR VSBY DEVELOPED LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY DUE TO
LOW LEVELS SATURATING UNDER CLEAR/CALM CONDS...MRB AND CHO WOULD
STAND THE BEST CHANCE. HOWEVER DUE TO THE DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE...FEEL THIS IS A LOW PROBABILITY AND WILL NOT INCLUDE IT IN
THE TAFS FOR NOW. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
FEW-SCT CU AROUND 6 KFT POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT/VRB WINDS
TONIGHT BECOME MORE DEFINED FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KT.

WIND GUSTS MAY POTENTIALLY EXCEED 25 KNOTS ON MONDAY. NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SLACKEN A
BIT MONDAY NIGHT.

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AT MRB...CHO AND IAD TERMINALS
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
ALL OTHER TERMINALS WILL BE MAINLY VFR. WINDS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5
TO 10 KNOTS GUSTS TO 15 KNOTS.

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS GUSTS
TO 15 KNOTS BECOMING NORTHWEST AT 5 KNOTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST...A SOUTHERLY WIND
WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE WHICH WILL CHANNEL UP CHESAPEAKE
BAY AND PRODUCE MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS...SO AN ADVISORY WAS
ISSUED FOR PRIMARILY THE SOUTHERN WATERS IN OUR RESPONSIBILITY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. NOTE THAT SCA CONDITIONS MAY EXPAND ON
MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SITS
OFF THE EAST COAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS PRODUCING A PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY WIND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ532>534-537-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...ADS/RCM
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...ADS/HAS/KLW
MARINE...HAS/RCM/KLW




000
FXUS61 KLWX 240112
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
912 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AND
LINGER TO THE EAST THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. THE RETURN FLOW WILL
RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY. HOT AND HUMID
WEATHER WILL DOMINATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BETWEEN THE HIGH TO
THE EAST AND AN APPROACHING FRONT TO THE WEST...WITH AN INCREASING
RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING EAST OF THE
DELMARVA TONIGHT UNDER A WNW FLOW ALOFT. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXIST
ACROSS THE AREA NOW...AND ONLY SOME STRANDS OF THIN CIRRUS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WITH DEW POINTS STILL IN THE 40S...WITH 30S
IN THE N...TEMPS ARE FALLING QUICKLY WITH SUNSET. WHILE WARMER
THAN LAST NIGHT...MANY AREAS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
MAY. THE LOWEST TEMPS WILL BE THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AND RURAL
LOW-LYING AREAS (MID-UPPER 40S)...WHILE MID RANGE ELEVATIONS
(UNDER INFLUENCE OF AN INVERSION) AND URBAN AREAS WILL REMAIN IN
THE MID 50S.

WITH THE HIGH CONTINUING TO MOVE OFFSHORE...WARMER AIR MOVING IN
ALOFT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER ON
SUNDAY. AN APPROACHING AND BUILDING RIDGE AXIS MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE...PREVENTING ANY
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...WARM ADVECTION WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN
INCREASED CLOUD COVER BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS WILL BE
ABOUT 20 DEGREES HIGHER ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON COMPARED TO CURRENT
READINGS...BUT NOT QUITE IN THE `HUMID` RANGE JUST YET. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL START TO BECOME NOTICEABLE BUT NOTHING PARTICULARLY
BREEZY IS EXPECTED INLAND THRU SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE EAST COAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT HEAT AND HUMIDITY. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 IN DC/BALTIMORE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA BUT THE MAIN
PLUME OF HIGH PWATS WILL BE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY.
TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A CU FIELD ALONG THE
RIDGES AND CANT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER.

THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVOLVE DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL WAVES OF ENERGY RIDE ALONG THE OHIO
VALLEY. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED FROM THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS TO THE BLUE RIDGE. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY TO
REACH NEAR 90 OR INTO THE LOWER 90S WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHES A LITTLE FARTHER
EAST TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND I-95 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A FEW ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL APPROACH 90 WITH A WARM
AND STICKY NIGHT IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT.

A STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...KEEPING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND GUSTY
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND TO START THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
AND LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCAL ZONE OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THROUGH SUNDAY. IF A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR VSBY DEVELOPED LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY DUE TO
LOW LEVELS SATURATING UNDER CLEAR/CALM CONDS...MRB AND CHO WOULD
STAND THE BEST CHANCE. HOWEVER DUE TO THE DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE...FEEL THIS IS A LOW PROBABILITY AND WILL NOT INCLUDE IT IN
THE TAFS FOR NOW. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
FEW-SCT CU AROUND 6 KFT POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT/VRB WINDS
TONIGHT BECOME MORE DEFINED FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KT.

WIND GUSTS MAY POTENTIALLY EXCEED 25 KNOTS ON MONDAY. NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SLACKEN A
BIT MONDAY NIGHT.

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AT MRB...CHO AND IAD TERMINALS
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
ALL OTHER TERMINALS WILL BE MAINLY VFR. WINDS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5
TO 10 KNOTS GUSTS TO 15 KNOTS.

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS GUSTS
TO 15 KNOTS BECOMING NORTHWEST AT 5 KNOTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST...A SOUTHERLY WIND
WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE WHICH WILL CHANNEL UP CHESAPEAKE
BAY AND PRODUCE MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS...SO AN ADVISORY WAS
ISSUED FOR PRIMARILY THE SOUTHERN WATERS IN OUR RESPONSIBILITY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. NOTE THAT SCA CONDITIONS MAY EXPAND ON
MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SITS
OFF THE EAST COAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS PRODUCING A PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY WIND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ532>534-537-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...ADS/RCM
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...ADS/HAS/KLW
MARINE...HAS/RCM/KLW



000
FXUS61 KLWX 240112
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
912 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AND
LINGER TO THE EAST THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. THE RETURN FLOW WILL
RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY. HOT AND HUMID
WEATHER WILL DOMINATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BETWEEN THE HIGH TO
THE EAST AND AN APPROACHING FRONT TO THE WEST...WITH AN INCREASING
RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING EAST OF THE
DELMARVA TONIGHT UNDER A WNW FLOW ALOFT. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXIST
ACROSS THE AREA NOW...AND ONLY SOME STRANDS OF THIN CIRRUS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WITH DEW POINTS STILL IN THE 40S...WITH 30S
IN THE N...TEMPS ARE FALLING QUICKLY WITH SUNSET. WHILE WARMER
THAN LAST NIGHT...MANY AREAS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
MAY. THE LOWEST TEMPS WILL BE THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AND RURAL
LOW-LYING AREAS (MID-UPPER 40S)...WHILE MID RANGE ELEVATIONS
(UNDER INFLUENCE OF AN INVERSION) AND URBAN AREAS WILL REMAIN IN
THE MID 50S.

WITH THE HIGH CONTINUING TO MOVE OFFSHORE...WARMER AIR MOVING IN
ALOFT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER ON
SUNDAY. AN APPROACHING AND BUILDING RIDGE AXIS MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE...PREVENTING ANY
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...WARM ADVECTION WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN
INCREASED CLOUD COVER BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS WILL BE
ABOUT 20 DEGREES HIGHER ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON COMPARED TO CURRENT
READINGS...BUT NOT QUITE IN THE `HUMID` RANGE JUST YET. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL START TO BECOME NOTICEABLE BUT NOTHING PARTICULARLY
BREEZY IS EXPECTED INLAND THRU SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE EAST COAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT HEAT AND HUMIDITY. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 IN DC/BALTIMORE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA BUT THE MAIN
PLUME OF HIGH PWATS WILL BE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY.
TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A CU FIELD ALONG THE
RIDGES AND CANT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER.

THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVOLVE DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL WAVES OF ENERGY RIDE ALONG THE OHIO
VALLEY. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED FROM THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS TO THE BLUE RIDGE. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY TO
REACH NEAR 90 OR INTO THE LOWER 90S WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHES A LITTLE FARTHER
EAST TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND I-95 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A FEW ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL APPROACH 90 WITH A WARM
AND STICKY NIGHT IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT.

A STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...KEEPING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND GUSTY
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND TO START THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
AND LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCAL ZONE OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THROUGH SUNDAY. IF A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR VSBY DEVELOPED LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY DUE TO
LOW LEVELS SATURATING UNDER CLEAR/CALM CONDS...MRB AND CHO WOULD
STAND THE BEST CHANCE. HOWEVER DUE TO THE DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE...FEEL THIS IS A LOW PROBABILITY AND WILL NOT INCLUDE IT IN
THE TAFS FOR NOW. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
FEW-SCT CU AROUND 6 KFT POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT/VRB WINDS
TONIGHT BECOME MORE DEFINED FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KT.

WIND GUSTS MAY POTENTIALLY EXCEED 25 KNOTS ON MONDAY. NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SLACKEN A
BIT MONDAY NIGHT.

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AT MRB...CHO AND IAD TERMINALS
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
ALL OTHER TERMINALS WILL BE MAINLY VFR. WINDS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5
TO 10 KNOTS GUSTS TO 15 KNOTS.

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS GUSTS
TO 15 KNOTS BECOMING NORTHWEST AT 5 KNOTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST...A SOUTHERLY WIND
WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE WHICH WILL CHANNEL UP CHESAPEAKE
BAY AND PRODUCE MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS...SO AN ADVISORY WAS
ISSUED FOR PRIMARILY THE SOUTHERN WATERS IN OUR RESPONSIBILITY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. NOTE THAT SCA CONDITIONS MAY EXPAND ON
MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SITS
OFF THE EAST COAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS PRODUCING A PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY WIND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ532>534-537-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...ADS/RCM
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...ADS/HAS/KLW
MARINE...HAS/RCM/KLW



000
FXUS61 KLWX 240112
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
912 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AND
LINGER TO THE EAST THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. THE RETURN FLOW WILL
RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY. HOT AND HUMID
WEATHER WILL DOMINATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BETWEEN THE HIGH TO
THE EAST AND AN APPROACHING FRONT TO THE WEST...WITH AN INCREASING
RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING EAST OF THE
DELMARVA TONIGHT UNDER A WNW FLOW ALOFT. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXIST
ACROSS THE AREA NOW...AND ONLY SOME STRANDS OF THIN CIRRUS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WITH DEW POINTS STILL IN THE 40S...WITH 30S
IN THE N...TEMPS ARE FALLING QUICKLY WITH SUNSET. WHILE WARMER
THAN LAST NIGHT...MANY AREAS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
MAY. THE LOWEST TEMPS WILL BE THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AND RURAL
LOW-LYING AREAS (MID-UPPER 40S)...WHILE MID RANGE ELEVATIONS
(UNDER INFLUENCE OF AN INVERSION) AND URBAN AREAS WILL REMAIN IN
THE MID 50S.

WITH THE HIGH CONTINUING TO MOVE OFFSHORE...WARMER AIR MOVING IN
ALOFT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER ON
SUNDAY. AN APPROACHING AND BUILDING RIDGE AXIS MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE...PREVENTING ANY
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...WARM ADVECTION WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN
INCREASED CLOUD COVER BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS WILL BE
ABOUT 20 DEGREES HIGHER ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON COMPARED TO CURRENT
READINGS...BUT NOT QUITE IN THE `HUMID` RANGE JUST YET. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL START TO BECOME NOTICEABLE BUT NOTHING PARTICULARLY
BREEZY IS EXPECTED INLAND THRU SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE EAST COAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT HEAT AND HUMIDITY. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 IN DC/BALTIMORE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA BUT THE MAIN
PLUME OF HIGH PWATS WILL BE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY.
TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A CU FIELD ALONG THE
RIDGES AND CANT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER.

THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVOLVE DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL WAVES OF ENERGY RIDE ALONG THE OHIO
VALLEY. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED FROM THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS TO THE BLUE RIDGE. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY TO
REACH NEAR 90 OR INTO THE LOWER 90S WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHES A LITTLE FARTHER
EAST TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND I-95 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A FEW ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL APPROACH 90 WITH A WARM
AND STICKY NIGHT IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT.

A STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...KEEPING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND GUSTY
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND TO START THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
AND LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCAL ZONE OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THROUGH SUNDAY. IF A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR VSBY DEVELOPED LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY DUE TO
LOW LEVELS SATURATING UNDER CLEAR/CALM CONDS...MRB AND CHO WOULD
STAND THE BEST CHANCE. HOWEVER DUE TO THE DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE...FEEL THIS IS A LOW PROBABILITY AND WILL NOT INCLUDE IT IN
THE TAFS FOR NOW. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
FEW-SCT CU AROUND 6 KFT POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT/VRB WINDS
TONIGHT BECOME MORE DEFINED FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KT.

WIND GUSTS MAY POTENTIALLY EXCEED 25 KNOTS ON MONDAY. NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SLACKEN A
BIT MONDAY NIGHT.

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AT MRB...CHO AND IAD TERMINALS
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
ALL OTHER TERMINALS WILL BE MAINLY VFR. WINDS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5
TO 10 KNOTS GUSTS TO 15 KNOTS.

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS GUSTS
TO 15 KNOTS BECOMING NORTHWEST AT 5 KNOTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST...A SOUTHERLY WIND
WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE WHICH WILL CHANNEL UP CHESAPEAKE
BAY AND PRODUCE MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS...SO AN ADVISORY WAS
ISSUED FOR PRIMARILY THE SOUTHERN WATERS IN OUR RESPONSIBILITY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. NOTE THAT SCA CONDITIONS MAY EXPAND ON
MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SITS
OFF THE EAST COAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS PRODUCING A PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY WIND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ532>534-537-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...ADS/RCM
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...ADS/HAS/KLW
MARINE...HAS/RCM/KLW




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 232322
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
722 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...THEN
BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE ALLOWING LL FLOW TO BECOME SE AOB 10
KTS. XPCT A MSTLY CLR / COOL NIGHT. LOWS U40S-L50S...M50S CSTL
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC HIGH BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST THRU THE PERIOD.
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THIS RIDGE KEEPS AIRMASS DRY ALONG WITH INCRG H85
/ DP TMPS. XPCT MSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND MSTLY CLR NIGHTS WITH A WRMG
TREND. HIGHS SUN M-U70S CSTL AREAS...U70S-L80S W OF THE BAY. LOWS
SUN NIGHT U50S- M60S. HIGHS MON L-M80S. LOWS MON NITE M-U60S.
HIGHS TUE 85-90. COOLER AT THE BEACHES EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EACH
DAY AND TYPICAL DIURNAL CHANCES FOR SHRAS/TSTMS ACROSS NW AREAS. HI
TEMPS WILL AVG FM THE MID 80S TO NR 90 WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPR 60S EACH DAY...ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE
WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN THRU THE PERIOD AS WAVES OF LO PRES PASS
MAINLY NW OF THE LOCAL AREA. POPS WILL BE 20-30% EACH AFTN/EVENG FOR
ALL AREAS EXCEPT SE VA/NE NC...WITH NO REASON TO GO HIGHER AT THIS
POINT DUE TO WEAK FORCING AND UPR-LEVEL RIDGING.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION...AND WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH
THE PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KTS OR LESS OUT OF THE S/SSE ON
SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW BRIEF GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT
KRIC/KSBY. VFR EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING OFF THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS HI PRES CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLC WITH
WINDS AVGG BLO 10 KT. THE HI WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE LATER THIS AFTN AND
EVENG WITH WINDS BCMG SELY OVER ALL WTRS. FAIRLY STAGNANT WX PATTERN
THEN INTO ERLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WITH THE SFC HI REMAINING OFFSHORE
AND LO PRES STAYING WELL W OF THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
PERSISTENT SLY FLOW TO DEVELOP...AVGG 10-15 KT. CONDS MAY COME CLOSE
TO SCA CRITERIA OVER THE BAY LATE EACH AFTN/EVENG BUT FOR NOW
FORECASTING MAINLY ~15 KT THERE WITH 2-3 FT WAVES. EXPECT 2-3 FT
SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS...UP TO 4 FT AT TIMES FOR NRN WTRS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JAO/WRS
MARINE...MAS



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 232322
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
722 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...THEN
BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE ALLOWING LL FLOW TO BECOME SE AOB 10
KTS. XPCT A MSTLY CLR / COOL NIGHT. LOWS U40S-L50S...M50S CSTL
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC HIGH BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST THRU THE PERIOD.
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THIS RIDGE KEEPS AIRMASS DRY ALONG WITH INCRG H85
/ DP TMPS. XPCT MSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND MSTLY CLR NIGHTS WITH A WRMG
TREND. HIGHS SUN M-U70S CSTL AREAS...U70S-L80S W OF THE BAY. LOWS
SUN NIGHT U50S- M60S. HIGHS MON L-M80S. LOWS MON NITE M-U60S.
HIGHS TUE 85-90. COOLER AT THE BEACHES EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EACH
DAY AND TYPICAL DIURNAL CHANCES FOR SHRAS/TSTMS ACROSS NW AREAS. HI
TEMPS WILL AVG FM THE MID 80S TO NR 90 WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPR 60S EACH DAY...ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE
WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN THRU THE PERIOD AS WAVES OF LO PRES PASS
MAINLY NW OF THE LOCAL AREA. POPS WILL BE 20-30% EACH AFTN/EVENG FOR
ALL AREAS EXCEPT SE VA/NE NC...WITH NO REASON TO GO HIGHER AT THIS
POINT DUE TO WEAK FORCING AND UPR-LEVEL RIDGING.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION...AND WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH
THE PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KTS OR LESS OUT OF THE S/SSE ON
SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW BRIEF GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT
KRIC/KSBY. VFR EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING OFF THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS HI PRES CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLC WITH
WINDS AVGG BLO 10 KT. THE HI WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE LATER THIS AFTN AND
EVENG WITH WINDS BCMG SELY OVER ALL WTRS. FAIRLY STAGNANT WX PATTERN
THEN INTO ERLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WITH THE SFC HI REMAINING OFFSHORE
AND LO PRES STAYING WELL W OF THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
PERSISTENT SLY FLOW TO DEVELOP...AVGG 10-15 KT. CONDS MAY COME CLOSE
TO SCA CRITERIA OVER THE BAY LATE EACH AFTN/EVENG BUT FOR NOW
FORECASTING MAINLY ~15 KT THERE WITH 2-3 FT WAVES. EXPECT 2-3 FT
SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS...UP TO 4 FT AT TIMES FOR NRN WTRS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JAO/WRS
MARINE...MAS



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 232322
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
722 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...THEN
BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE ALLOWING LL FLOW TO BECOME SE AOB 10
KTS. XPCT A MSTLY CLR / COOL NIGHT. LOWS U40S-L50S...M50S CSTL
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC HIGH BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST THRU THE PERIOD.
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THIS RIDGE KEEPS AIRMASS DRY ALONG WITH INCRG H85
/ DP TMPS. XPCT MSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND MSTLY CLR NIGHTS WITH A WRMG
TREND. HIGHS SUN M-U70S CSTL AREAS...U70S-L80S W OF THE BAY. LOWS
SUN NIGHT U50S- M60S. HIGHS MON L-M80S. LOWS MON NITE M-U60S.
HIGHS TUE 85-90. COOLER AT THE BEACHES EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EACH
DAY AND TYPICAL DIURNAL CHANCES FOR SHRAS/TSTMS ACROSS NW AREAS. HI
TEMPS WILL AVG FM THE MID 80S TO NR 90 WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPR 60S EACH DAY...ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE
WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN THRU THE PERIOD AS WAVES OF LO PRES PASS
MAINLY NW OF THE LOCAL AREA. POPS WILL BE 20-30% EACH AFTN/EVENG FOR
ALL AREAS EXCEPT SE VA/NE NC...WITH NO REASON TO GO HIGHER AT THIS
POINT DUE TO WEAK FORCING AND UPR-LEVEL RIDGING.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION...AND WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH
THE PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KTS OR LESS OUT OF THE S/SSE ON
SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW BRIEF GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT
KRIC/KSBY. VFR EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING OFF THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS HI PRES CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLC WITH
WINDS AVGG BLO 10 KT. THE HI WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE LATER THIS AFTN AND
EVENG WITH WINDS BCMG SELY OVER ALL WTRS. FAIRLY STAGNANT WX PATTERN
THEN INTO ERLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WITH THE SFC HI REMAINING OFFSHORE
AND LO PRES STAYING WELL W OF THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
PERSISTENT SLY FLOW TO DEVELOP...AVGG 10-15 KT. CONDS MAY COME CLOSE
TO SCA CRITERIA OVER THE BAY LATE EACH AFTN/EVENG BUT FOR NOW
FORECASTING MAINLY ~15 KT THERE WITH 2-3 FT WAVES. EXPECT 2-3 FT
SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS...UP TO 4 FT AT TIMES FOR NRN WTRS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JAO/WRS
MARINE...MAS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 232313
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
713 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WHILE MAINTAINING CONTROL OF THE AREA WEATHER INTO MONDAY.
THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY ON THE
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH JUST AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE FOR A LATE DAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER TO THE
EAST...OUR CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EDT SATURDAY...

AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A VERY PLEASANT SATURDAY
UNDERWAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS GENERATING SOME
CUMULUS CLOUDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...TOPPED BY SOME
MID/HIGH CLOUDS MAKING THEIR WAY IN FROM THE WEST AS THEY SPILL OVER
THE UPPER RIDGE. THE CU WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING BUT THE
MID/HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR EAST CONTINUING TO BRING LIGHT WINDS TO THE AREA...THIS
SHOULD BE A DECENT SET UP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. IT DOES NOT
LOOK QUITE AS COOL AS LAST NIGHT WITH DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO BE A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER. EXPECT READINGS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S EAST OF THE RIDGE
WITH LOWER 40S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEYS...TO UPPER 40S/LOW 50S
EAST. FOG FORMATION WAS CONFINED TO ISOLATED PATCHES ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE NEW RIVER AND DO NOT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD
TONIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A CARBON COPY OF TODAY...DOES ANYONE KNOW
WHAT A CARBON COPY IS THESE DAYS?...WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING UP A FEW
DEGREES.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM EDT SATURDAY...

WITH AN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD
BE EXCELLENT FOR THOSE PARTICIPATING IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HEIGHTS ALOFT
BUILDING THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST FOR TUESDAY.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES
EACH DAY DURING THIS PERIOD AND INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS.
INCREASED HIGHS ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO MONDAY WITH SURGING 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES.

CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM IN NW NC/FAR SW VA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS HIGHER THETA-E AIR ADVECTS INTO THIS REGION AND LOCAL
TERRAIN CONVERGENCE. ALTHOUGH IF THE SLOWER ECMWF VERIFIES...THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL AGAIN BE VOID OF PRECIPITATION. FOR
NOW...WILL ONLY KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON SHOWER/STORM
IN NW NC/FAR SW VA.

PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE IN THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY MOVES INTO THE REGION ON THE FAR EASTERN FRINGE OF THE
CENTRAL U.S. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. A DEEP SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
HELP PUSH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES BY TUESDAY HELPING TO
INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS. INCREASING
CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY SHOULD KEEP HIGHS ON TUESDAY SIMILAR TO
MONDAY...BUT IN THE EAST...CONTINUED TO GO A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE
GUIDANCE VALUES FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...

A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED AND DAILY CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN.

GEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW PWATS THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABV NORMAL. ALOFT...LONG RANGE MODELS
TAKE A CENTRAL U.S. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND WEAKEN IT AS IT MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN U.S. RIDGE. THIS WILL HELP DRAG A WEAK BOUNDARY
INTO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL HELP INCREASE COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION.

IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST LATE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...AS A NOSE OF 16+C 850MB
TEMPS NOSES INTO OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM EDT SATURDAY...

EXPECTING OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY AT 5-12 KTS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SHEARED WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE CROSSING THE REGION
MAY SPREAD A FEW BANDS OF CU/AC ACROSS WESTERN LOCATIONS THIS
EVENING... WITH SOME RESIDUAL MID DECK POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME
AT KBCB/KROA/KBLF SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER WILL ONLY KEEP
SCATTERED VFR CU FOR NOW WITH PERIODS OF BROKEN MID DECK MOUNTAINS
GIVEN DRYNESS AND LACK OF UPSTREAM CLOUDINESS THIS EVENING.
RADIATIONAL COOLING COULD AGAIN LEAD TO SOME LATE NIGHT RIVER
VALLEY FOG BUT GIVEN SUCH A DRY/MIXED ENVIRONMENT FROM THIS
AFTERNOON APPEARS ANY FOG QUITE ISOLATED IF AT ALL AGAIN TONIGHT.
MAY LEAVE IN A BRIEF TEMPO GROUP AT KLWB FOR PATCHY FOG LATER
OTHERWISE LEAVING OUT MENTION ELSEWHERE. A BIT MORE CU POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AS MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNS...BUT OVERALL
MOSTLY SCATTERED AT THIS POINT WITH PERHAPS THE RIDGES SEEING SOME
BROKEN CIGS IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE. SOUTHWEST WINDS IN RETURN FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE BY
MONDAY. THIS MAY BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOUNTAIN AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY BY LATER
TUESDAY...WHEN PERIODS OF MVFR COULD OCCUR MAINLY BLUE RIDGE WEST.
WEAK TROUGH DRIFTS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY BEFORE SLIDING EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE LATER THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING THE BEST
CHANCES OF SEEING MORE WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON/EVENING SUB-VFR IN
SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY MORE ISOLATED NATURE
COVERAGE ACROSS THE EAST ON THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY LATE DAY CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK.
&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...PH
AVIATION...JH/MBS



000
FXUS61 KRNK 232313
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
713 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WHILE MAINTAINING CONTROL OF THE AREA WEATHER INTO MONDAY.
THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY ON THE
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH JUST AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE FOR A LATE DAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER TO THE
EAST...OUR CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EDT SATURDAY...

AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A VERY PLEASANT SATURDAY
UNDERWAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS GENERATING SOME
CUMULUS CLOUDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...TOPPED BY SOME
MID/HIGH CLOUDS MAKING THEIR WAY IN FROM THE WEST AS THEY SPILL OVER
THE UPPER RIDGE. THE CU WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING BUT THE
MID/HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR EAST CONTINUING TO BRING LIGHT WINDS TO THE AREA...THIS
SHOULD BE A DECENT SET UP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. IT DOES NOT
LOOK QUITE AS COOL AS LAST NIGHT WITH DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO BE A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER. EXPECT READINGS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S EAST OF THE RIDGE
WITH LOWER 40S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEYS...TO UPPER 40S/LOW 50S
EAST. FOG FORMATION WAS CONFINED TO ISOLATED PATCHES ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE NEW RIVER AND DO NOT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD
TONIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A CARBON COPY OF TODAY...DOES ANYONE KNOW
WHAT A CARBON COPY IS THESE DAYS?...WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING UP A FEW
DEGREES.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM EDT SATURDAY...

WITH AN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD
BE EXCELLENT FOR THOSE PARTICIPATING IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HEIGHTS ALOFT
BUILDING THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST FOR TUESDAY.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES
EACH DAY DURING THIS PERIOD AND INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS.
INCREASED HIGHS ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO MONDAY WITH SURGING 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES.

CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM IN NW NC/FAR SW VA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS HIGHER THETA-E AIR ADVECTS INTO THIS REGION AND LOCAL
TERRAIN CONVERGENCE. ALTHOUGH IF THE SLOWER ECMWF VERIFIES...THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL AGAIN BE VOID OF PRECIPITATION. FOR
NOW...WILL ONLY KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON SHOWER/STORM
IN NW NC/FAR SW VA.

PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE IN THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY MOVES INTO THE REGION ON THE FAR EASTERN FRINGE OF THE
CENTRAL U.S. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. A DEEP SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
HELP PUSH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES BY TUESDAY HELPING TO
INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS. INCREASING
CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY SHOULD KEEP HIGHS ON TUESDAY SIMILAR TO
MONDAY...BUT IN THE EAST...CONTINUED TO GO A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE
GUIDANCE VALUES FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...

A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED AND DAILY CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN.

GEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW PWATS THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABV NORMAL. ALOFT...LONG RANGE MODELS
TAKE A CENTRAL U.S. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND WEAKEN IT AS IT MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN U.S. RIDGE. THIS WILL HELP DRAG A WEAK BOUNDARY
INTO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL HELP INCREASE COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION.

IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST LATE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...AS A NOSE OF 16+C 850MB
TEMPS NOSES INTO OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM EDT SATURDAY...

EXPECTING OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY AT 5-12 KTS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SHEARED WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE CROSSING THE REGION
MAY SPREAD A FEW BANDS OF CU/AC ACROSS WESTERN LOCATIONS THIS
EVENING... WITH SOME RESIDUAL MID DECK POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME
AT KBCB/KROA/KBLF SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER WILL ONLY KEEP
SCATTERED VFR CU FOR NOW WITH PERIODS OF BROKEN MID DECK MOUNTAINS
GIVEN DRYNESS AND LACK OF UPSTREAM CLOUDINESS THIS EVENING.
RADIATIONAL COOLING COULD AGAIN LEAD TO SOME LATE NIGHT RIVER
VALLEY FOG BUT GIVEN SUCH A DRY/MIXED ENVIRONMENT FROM THIS
AFTERNOON APPEARS ANY FOG QUITE ISOLATED IF AT ALL AGAIN TONIGHT.
MAY LEAVE IN A BRIEF TEMPO GROUP AT KLWB FOR PATCHY FOG LATER
OTHERWISE LEAVING OUT MENTION ELSEWHERE. A BIT MORE CU POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AS MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNS...BUT OVERALL
MOSTLY SCATTERED AT THIS POINT WITH PERHAPS THE RIDGES SEEING SOME
BROKEN CIGS IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE. SOUTHWEST WINDS IN RETURN FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE BY
MONDAY. THIS MAY BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOUNTAIN AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY BY LATER
TUESDAY...WHEN PERIODS OF MVFR COULD OCCUR MAINLY BLUE RIDGE WEST.
WEAK TROUGH DRIFTS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY BEFORE SLIDING EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE LATER THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING THE BEST
CHANCES OF SEEING MORE WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON/EVENING SUB-VFR IN
SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY MORE ISOLATED NATURE
COVERAGE ACROSS THE EAST ON THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY LATE DAY CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK.
&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...PH
AVIATION...JH/MBS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 232313
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
713 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WHILE MAINTAINING CONTROL OF THE AREA WEATHER INTO MONDAY.
THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY ON THE
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH JUST AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE FOR A LATE DAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER TO THE
EAST...OUR CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EDT SATURDAY...

AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A VERY PLEASANT SATURDAY
UNDERWAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS GENERATING SOME
CUMULUS CLOUDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...TOPPED BY SOME
MID/HIGH CLOUDS MAKING THEIR WAY IN FROM THE WEST AS THEY SPILL OVER
THE UPPER RIDGE. THE CU WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING BUT THE
MID/HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR EAST CONTINUING TO BRING LIGHT WINDS TO THE AREA...THIS
SHOULD BE A DECENT SET UP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. IT DOES NOT
LOOK QUITE AS COOL AS LAST NIGHT WITH DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO BE A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER. EXPECT READINGS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S EAST OF THE RIDGE
WITH LOWER 40S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEYS...TO UPPER 40S/LOW 50S
EAST. FOG FORMATION WAS CONFINED TO ISOLATED PATCHES ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE NEW RIVER AND DO NOT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD
TONIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A CARBON COPY OF TODAY...DOES ANYONE KNOW
WHAT A CARBON COPY IS THESE DAYS?...WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING UP A FEW
DEGREES.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM EDT SATURDAY...

WITH AN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD
BE EXCELLENT FOR THOSE PARTICIPATING IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HEIGHTS ALOFT
BUILDING THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST FOR TUESDAY.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES
EACH DAY DURING THIS PERIOD AND INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS.
INCREASED HIGHS ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO MONDAY WITH SURGING 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES.

CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM IN NW NC/FAR SW VA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS HIGHER THETA-E AIR ADVECTS INTO THIS REGION AND LOCAL
TERRAIN CONVERGENCE. ALTHOUGH IF THE SLOWER ECMWF VERIFIES...THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL AGAIN BE VOID OF PRECIPITATION. FOR
NOW...WILL ONLY KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON SHOWER/STORM
IN NW NC/FAR SW VA.

PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE IN THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY MOVES INTO THE REGION ON THE FAR EASTERN FRINGE OF THE
CENTRAL U.S. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. A DEEP SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
HELP PUSH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES BY TUESDAY HELPING TO
INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS. INCREASING
CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY SHOULD KEEP HIGHS ON TUESDAY SIMILAR TO
MONDAY...BUT IN THE EAST...CONTINUED TO GO A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE
GUIDANCE VALUES FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...

A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED AND DAILY CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN.

GEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW PWATS THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABV NORMAL. ALOFT...LONG RANGE MODELS
TAKE A CENTRAL U.S. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND WEAKEN IT AS IT MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN U.S. RIDGE. THIS WILL HELP DRAG A WEAK BOUNDARY
INTO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL HELP INCREASE COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION.

IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST LATE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...AS A NOSE OF 16+C 850MB
TEMPS NOSES INTO OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM EDT SATURDAY...

EXPECTING OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY AT 5-12 KTS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SHEARED WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE CROSSING THE REGION
MAY SPREAD A FEW BANDS OF CU/AC ACROSS WESTERN LOCATIONS THIS
EVENING... WITH SOME RESIDUAL MID DECK POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME
AT KBCB/KROA/KBLF SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER WILL ONLY KEEP
SCATTERED VFR CU FOR NOW WITH PERIODS OF BROKEN MID DECK MOUNTAINS
GIVEN DRYNESS AND LACK OF UPSTREAM CLOUDINESS THIS EVENING.
RADIATIONAL COOLING COULD AGAIN LEAD TO SOME LATE NIGHT RIVER
VALLEY FOG BUT GIVEN SUCH A DRY/MIXED ENVIRONMENT FROM THIS
AFTERNOON APPEARS ANY FOG QUITE ISOLATED IF AT ALL AGAIN TONIGHT.
MAY LEAVE IN A BRIEF TEMPO GROUP AT KLWB FOR PATCHY FOG LATER
OTHERWISE LEAVING OUT MENTION ELSEWHERE. A BIT MORE CU POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AS MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNS...BUT OVERALL
MOSTLY SCATTERED AT THIS POINT WITH PERHAPS THE RIDGES SEEING SOME
BROKEN CIGS IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE. SOUTHWEST WINDS IN RETURN FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE BY
MONDAY. THIS MAY BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOUNTAIN AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY BY LATER
TUESDAY...WHEN PERIODS OF MVFR COULD OCCUR MAINLY BLUE RIDGE WEST.
WEAK TROUGH DRIFTS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY BEFORE SLIDING EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE LATER THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING THE BEST
CHANCES OF SEEING MORE WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON/EVENING SUB-VFR IN
SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY MORE ISOLATED NATURE
COVERAGE ACROSS THE EAST ON THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY LATE DAY CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK.
&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...PH
AVIATION...JH/MBS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 232313
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
713 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WHILE MAINTAINING CONTROL OF THE AREA WEATHER INTO MONDAY.
THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY ON THE
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH JUST AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE FOR A LATE DAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER TO THE
EAST...OUR CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EDT SATURDAY...

AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A VERY PLEASANT SATURDAY
UNDERWAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS GENERATING SOME
CUMULUS CLOUDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...TOPPED BY SOME
MID/HIGH CLOUDS MAKING THEIR WAY IN FROM THE WEST AS THEY SPILL OVER
THE UPPER RIDGE. THE CU WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING BUT THE
MID/HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR EAST CONTINUING TO BRING LIGHT WINDS TO THE AREA...THIS
SHOULD BE A DECENT SET UP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. IT DOES NOT
LOOK QUITE AS COOL AS LAST NIGHT WITH DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO BE A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER. EXPECT READINGS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S EAST OF THE RIDGE
WITH LOWER 40S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEYS...TO UPPER 40S/LOW 50S
EAST. FOG FORMATION WAS CONFINED TO ISOLATED PATCHES ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE NEW RIVER AND DO NOT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD
TONIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A CARBON COPY OF TODAY...DOES ANYONE KNOW
WHAT A CARBON COPY IS THESE DAYS?...WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING UP A FEW
DEGREES.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM EDT SATURDAY...

WITH AN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD
BE EXCELLENT FOR THOSE PARTICIPATING IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HEIGHTS ALOFT
BUILDING THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST FOR TUESDAY.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES
EACH DAY DURING THIS PERIOD AND INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS.
INCREASED HIGHS ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO MONDAY WITH SURGING 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES.

CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM IN NW NC/FAR SW VA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS HIGHER THETA-E AIR ADVECTS INTO THIS REGION AND LOCAL
TERRAIN CONVERGENCE. ALTHOUGH IF THE SLOWER ECMWF VERIFIES...THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL AGAIN BE VOID OF PRECIPITATION. FOR
NOW...WILL ONLY KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON SHOWER/STORM
IN NW NC/FAR SW VA.

PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE IN THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY MOVES INTO THE REGION ON THE FAR EASTERN FRINGE OF THE
CENTRAL U.S. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. A DEEP SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
HELP PUSH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES BY TUESDAY HELPING TO
INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS. INCREASING
CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY SHOULD KEEP HIGHS ON TUESDAY SIMILAR TO
MONDAY...BUT IN THE EAST...CONTINUED TO GO A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE
GUIDANCE VALUES FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...

A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED AND DAILY CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN.

GEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW PWATS THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABV NORMAL. ALOFT...LONG RANGE MODELS
TAKE A CENTRAL U.S. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND WEAKEN IT AS IT MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN U.S. RIDGE. THIS WILL HELP DRAG A WEAK BOUNDARY
INTO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL HELP INCREASE COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION.

IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST LATE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...AS A NOSE OF 16+C 850MB
TEMPS NOSES INTO OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM EDT SATURDAY...

EXPECTING OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY AT 5-12 KTS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SHEARED WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE CROSSING THE REGION
MAY SPREAD A FEW BANDS OF CU/AC ACROSS WESTERN LOCATIONS THIS
EVENING... WITH SOME RESIDUAL MID DECK POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME
AT KBCB/KROA/KBLF SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER WILL ONLY KEEP
SCATTERED VFR CU FOR NOW WITH PERIODS OF BROKEN MID DECK MOUNTAINS
GIVEN DRYNESS AND LACK OF UPSTREAM CLOUDINESS THIS EVENING.
RADIATIONAL COOLING COULD AGAIN LEAD TO SOME LATE NIGHT RIVER
VALLEY FOG BUT GIVEN SUCH A DRY/MIXED ENVIRONMENT FROM THIS
AFTERNOON APPEARS ANY FOG QUITE ISOLATED IF AT ALL AGAIN TONIGHT.
MAY LEAVE IN A BRIEF TEMPO GROUP AT KLWB FOR PATCHY FOG LATER
OTHERWISE LEAVING OUT MENTION ELSEWHERE. A BIT MORE CU POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AS MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNS...BUT OVERALL
MOSTLY SCATTERED AT THIS POINT WITH PERHAPS THE RIDGES SEEING SOME
BROKEN CIGS IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE. SOUTHWEST WINDS IN RETURN FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE BY
MONDAY. THIS MAY BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOUNTAIN AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY BY LATER
TUESDAY...WHEN PERIODS OF MVFR COULD OCCUR MAINLY BLUE RIDGE WEST.
WEAK TROUGH DRIFTS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY BEFORE SLIDING EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE LATER THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING THE BEST
CHANCES OF SEEING MORE WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON/EVENING SUB-VFR IN
SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY MORE ISOLATED NATURE
COVERAGE ACROSS THE EAST ON THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY LATE DAY CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK.
&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...PH
AVIATION...JH/MBS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 232313
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
713 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WHILE MAINTAINING CONTROL OF THE AREA WEATHER INTO MONDAY.
THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY ON THE
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH JUST AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE FOR A LATE DAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER TO THE
EAST...OUR CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EDT SATURDAY...

AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A VERY PLEASANT SATURDAY
UNDERWAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS GENERATING SOME
CUMULUS CLOUDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...TOPPED BY SOME
MID/HIGH CLOUDS MAKING THEIR WAY IN FROM THE WEST AS THEY SPILL OVER
THE UPPER RIDGE. THE CU WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING BUT THE
MID/HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR EAST CONTINUING TO BRING LIGHT WINDS TO THE AREA...THIS
SHOULD BE A DECENT SET UP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. IT DOES NOT
LOOK QUITE AS COOL AS LAST NIGHT WITH DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO BE A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER. EXPECT READINGS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S EAST OF THE RIDGE
WITH LOWER 40S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEYS...TO UPPER 40S/LOW 50S
EAST. FOG FORMATION WAS CONFINED TO ISOLATED PATCHES ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE NEW RIVER AND DO NOT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD
TONIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A CARBON COPY OF TODAY...DOES ANYONE KNOW
WHAT A CARBON COPY IS THESE DAYS?...WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING UP A FEW
DEGREES.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM EDT SATURDAY...

WITH AN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD
BE EXCELLENT FOR THOSE PARTICIPATING IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HEIGHTS ALOFT
BUILDING THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST FOR TUESDAY.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES
EACH DAY DURING THIS PERIOD AND INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS.
INCREASED HIGHS ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO MONDAY WITH SURGING 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES.

CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM IN NW NC/FAR SW VA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS HIGHER THETA-E AIR ADVECTS INTO THIS REGION AND LOCAL
TERRAIN CONVERGENCE. ALTHOUGH IF THE SLOWER ECMWF VERIFIES...THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL AGAIN BE VOID OF PRECIPITATION. FOR
NOW...WILL ONLY KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON SHOWER/STORM
IN NW NC/FAR SW VA.

PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE IN THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY MOVES INTO THE REGION ON THE FAR EASTERN FRINGE OF THE
CENTRAL U.S. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. A DEEP SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
HELP PUSH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES BY TUESDAY HELPING TO
INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS. INCREASING
CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY SHOULD KEEP HIGHS ON TUESDAY SIMILAR TO
MONDAY...BUT IN THE EAST...CONTINUED TO GO A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE
GUIDANCE VALUES FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...

A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED AND DAILY CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN.

GEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW PWATS THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABV NORMAL. ALOFT...LONG RANGE MODELS
TAKE A CENTRAL U.S. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND WEAKEN IT AS IT MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN U.S. RIDGE. THIS WILL HELP DRAG A WEAK BOUNDARY
INTO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL HELP INCREASE COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION.

IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST LATE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...AS A NOSE OF 16+C 850MB
TEMPS NOSES INTO OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM EDT SATURDAY...

EXPECTING OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY AT 5-12 KTS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SHEARED WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE CROSSING THE REGION
MAY SPREAD A FEW BANDS OF CU/AC ACROSS WESTERN LOCATIONS THIS
EVENING... WITH SOME RESIDUAL MID DECK POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME
AT KBCB/KROA/KBLF SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER WILL ONLY KEEP
SCATTERED VFR CU FOR NOW WITH PERIODS OF BROKEN MID DECK MOUNTAINS
GIVEN DRYNESS AND LACK OF UPSTREAM CLOUDINESS THIS EVENING.
RADIATIONAL COOLING COULD AGAIN LEAD TO SOME LATE NIGHT RIVER
VALLEY FOG BUT GIVEN SUCH A DRY/MIXED ENVIRONMENT FROM THIS
AFTERNOON APPEARS ANY FOG QUITE ISOLATED IF AT ALL AGAIN TONIGHT.
MAY LEAVE IN A BRIEF TEMPO GROUP AT KLWB FOR PATCHY FOG LATER
OTHERWISE LEAVING OUT MENTION ELSEWHERE. A BIT MORE CU POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AS MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNS...BUT OVERALL
MOSTLY SCATTERED AT THIS POINT WITH PERHAPS THE RIDGES SEEING SOME
BROKEN CIGS IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE. SOUTHWEST WINDS IN RETURN FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE BY
MONDAY. THIS MAY BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOUNTAIN AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY BY LATER
TUESDAY...WHEN PERIODS OF MVFR COULD OCCUR MAINLY BLUE RIDGE WEST.
WEAK TROUGH DRIFTS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY BEFORE SLIDING EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE LATER THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING THE BEST
CHANCES OF SEEING MORE WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON/EVENING SUB-VFR IN
SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY MORE ISOLATED NATURE
COVERAGE ACROSS THE EAST ON THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY LATE DAY CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK.
&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...PH
AVIATION...JH/MBS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 232313
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
713 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WHILE MAINTAINING CONTROL OF THE AREA WEATHER INTO MONDAY.
THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY ON THE
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH JUST AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE FOR A LATE DAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER TO THE
EAST...OUR CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EDT SATURDAY...

AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A VERY PLEASANT SATURDAY
UNDERWAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS GENERATING SOME
CUMULUS CLOUDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...TOPPED BY SOME
MID/HIGH CLOUDS MAKING THEIR WAY IN FROM THE WEST AS THEY SPILL OVER
THE UPPER RIDGE. THE CU WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING BUT THE
MID/HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR EAST CONTINUING TO BRING LIGHT WINDS TO THE AREA...THIS
SHOULD BE A DECENT SET UP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. IT DOES NOT
LOOK QUITE AS COOL AS LAST NIGHT WITH DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO BE A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER. EXPECT READINGS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S EAST OF THE RIDGE
WITH LOWER 40S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEYS...TO UPPER 40S/LOW 50S
EAST. FOG FORMATION WAS CONFINED TO ISOLATED PATCHES ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE NEW RIVER AND DO NOT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD
TONIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A CARBON COPY OF TODAY...DOES ANYONE KNOW
WHAT A CARBON COPY IS THESE DAYS?...WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING UP A FEW
DEGREES.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM EDT SATURDAY...

WITH AN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD
BE EXCELLENT FOR THOSE PARTICIPATING IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HEIGHTS ALOFT
BUILDING THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST FOR TUESDAY.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES
EACH DAY DURING THIS PERIOD AND INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS.
INCREASED HIGHS ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO MONDAY WITH SURGING 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES.

CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM IN NW NC/FAR SW VA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS HIGHER THETA-E AIR ADVECTS INTO THIS REGION AND LOCAL
TERRAIN CONVERGENCE. ALTHOUGH IF THE SLOWER ECMWF VERIFIES...THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL AGAIN BE VOID OF PRECIPITATION. FOR
NOW...WILL ONLY KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON SHOWER/STORM
IN NW NC/FAR SW VA.

PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE IN THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY MOVES INTO THE REGION ON THE FAR EASTERN FRINGE OF THE
CENTRAL U.S. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. A DEEP SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
HELP PUSH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES BY TUESDAY HELPING TO
INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS. INCREASING
CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY SHOULD KEEP HIGHS ON TUESDAY SIMILAR TO
MONDAY...BUT IN THE EAST...CONTINUED TO GO A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE
GUIDANCE VALUES FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...

A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED AND DAILY CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN.

GEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW PWATS THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABV NORMAL. ALOFT...LONG RANGE MODELS
TAKE A CENTRAL U.S. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND WEAKEN IT AS IT MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN U.S. RIDGE. THIS WILL HELP DRAG A WEAK BOUNDARY
INTO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL HELP INCREASE COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION.

IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST LATE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...AS A NOSE OF 16+C 850MB
TEMPS NOSES INTO OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM EDT SATURDAY...

EXPECTING OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY AT 5-12 KTS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SHEARED WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE CROSSING THE REGION
MAY SPREAD A FEW BANDS OF CU/AC ACROSS WESTERN LOCATIONS THIS
EVENING... WITH SOME RESIDUAL MID DECK POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME
AT KBCB/KROA/KBLF SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER WILL ONLY KEEP
SCATTERED VFR CU FOR NOW WITH PERIODS OF BROKEN MID DECK MOUNTAINS
GIVEN DRYNESS AND LACK OF UPSTREAM CLOUDINESS THIS EVENING.
RADIATIONAL COOLING COULD AGAIN LEAD TO SOME LATE NIGHT RIVER
VALLEY FOG BUT GIVEN SUCH A DRY/MIXED ENVIRONMENT FROM THIS
AFTERNOON APPEARS ANY FOG QUITE ISOLATED IF AT ALL AGAIN TONIGHT.
MAY LEAVE IN A BRIEF TEMPO GROUP AT KLWB FOR PATCHY FOG LATER
OTHERWISE LEAVING OUT MENTION ELSEWHERE. A BIT MORE CU POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AS MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNS...BUT OVERALL
MOSTLY SCATTERED AT THIS POINT WITH PERHAPS THE RIDGES SEEING SOME
BROKEN CIGS IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE. SOUTHWEST WINDS IN RETURN FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE BY
MONDAY. THIS MAY BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOUNTAIN AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY BY LATER
TUESDAY...WHEN PERIODS OF MVFR COULD OCCUR MAINLY BLUE RIDGE WEST.
WEAK TROUGH DRIFTS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY BEFORE SLIDING EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE LATER THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING THE BEST
CHANCES OF SEEING MORE WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON/EVENING SUB-VFR IN
SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY MORE ISOLATED NATURE
COVERAGE ACROSS THE EAST ON THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY LATE DAY CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK.
&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...PH
AVIATION...JH/MBS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 231930
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
330 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...THEN
BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE ALLOWING LL FLOW TO BECOME SE AOB 10
KTS. XPCT A MSTLY CLR / COOL NIGHT. LOWS U40S-L50S...M50S CSTL
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC HIGH BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST THRU THE PERIOD.
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THIS RIDGE KEEPS AIRMASS DRY ALONG WITH INCRG H85
/ DP TMPS. XPCT MSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND MSTLY CLR NIGHTS WITH A WRMG
TREND. HIGHS SUN M-U70S CSTL AREAS...U70S-L80S W OF THE BAY. LOWS
SUN NIGHT U50S- M60S. HIGHS MON L-M80S. LOWS MON NITE M-U60S.
HIGHS TUE 85-90. COOLER AT THE BEACHES EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EACH
DAY AND TYPICAL DIURNAL CHANCES FOR SHRAS/TSTMS ACROSS NW AREAS. HI
TEMPS WILL AVG FM THE MID 80S TO NR 90 WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPR 60S EACH DAY...ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE
WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN THRU THE PERIOD AS WAVES OF LO PRES PASS
MAINLY NW OF THE LOCAL AREA. POPS WILL BE 20-30% EACH AFTN/EVENG FOR
ALL AREAS EXCEPT SE VA/NE NC...WITH NO REASON TO GO HIGHER AT THIS
POINT DUE TO WEAK FORCING AND UPR-LEVEL RIDGING.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF VA...MD AND
NC THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES. WINDS CLOSE TO THE COAST
AND BAY WERE GENERALLY ENE AROUND 10 KT OR LESS WITH SOME LOCAL
DEVIATIONS IN WIND DIRECTION DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS. INLAND AREAS
WINDS WERE GENETERALLY N TO NE AROUND 5 TO 10 KT. AS HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING WINDS BECOME SE AND
THEN S OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH
THE PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS HI PRES CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLC WITH
WINDS AVGG BLO 10 KT. THE HI WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE LATER THIS AFTN AND
EVENG WITH WINDS BCMG SELY OVER ALL WTRS. FAIRLY STAGNANT WX PATTERN
THEN INTO ERLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WITH THE SFC HI REMAINING OFFSHORE
AND LO PRES STAYING WELL W OF THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
PERSISTENT SLY FLOW TO DEVELOP...AVGG 10-15 KT. CONDS MAY COME CLOSE
TO SCA CRITERIA OVER THE BAY LATE EACH AFTN/EVENG BUT FOR NOW
FORECASTING MAINLY ~15 KT THERE WITH 2-3 FT WAVES. EXPECT 2-3 FT
SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS...UP TO 4 FT AT TIMES FOR NRN WTRS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JAO
MARINE...MAS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 231930
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
330 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...THEN
BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE ALLOWING LL FLOW TO BECOME SE AOB 10
KTS. XPCT A MSTLY CLR / COOL NIGHT. LOWS U40S-L50S...M50S CSTL
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC HIGH BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST THRU THE PERIOD.
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THIS RIDGE KEEPS AIRMASS DRY ALONG WITH INCRG H85
/ DP TMPS. XPCT MSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND MSTLY CLR NIGHTS WITH A WRMG
TREND. HIGHS SUN M-U70S CSTL AREAS...U70S-L80S W OF THE BAY. LOWS
SUN NIGHT U50S- M60S. HIGHS MON L-M80S. LOWS MON NITE M-U60S.
HIGHS TUE 85-90. COOLER AT THE BEACHES EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EACH
DAY AND TYPICAL DIURNAL CHANCES FOR SHRAS/TSTMS ACROSS NW AREAS. HI
TEMPS WILL AVG FM THE MID 80S TO NR 90 WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPR 60S EACH DAY...ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE
WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN THRU THE PERIOD AS WAVES OF LO PRES PASS
MAINLY NW OF THE LOCAL AREA. POPS WILL BE 20-30% EACH AFTN/EVENG FOR
ALL AREAS EXCEPT SE VA/NE NC...WITH NO REASON TO GO HIGHER AT THIS
POINT DUE TO WEAK FORCING AND UPR-LEVEL RIDGING.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF VA...MD AND
NC THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES. WINDS CLOSE TO THE COAST
AND BAY WERE GENERALLY ENE AROUND 10 KT OR LESS WITH SOME LOCAL
DEVIATIONS IN WIND DIRECTION DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS. INLAND AREAS
WINDS WERE GENETERALLY N TO NE AROUND 5 TO 10 KT. AS HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING WINDS BECOME SE AND
THEN S OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH
THE PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS HI PRES CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLC WITH
WINDS AVGG BLO 10 KT. THE HI WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE LATER THIS AFTN AND
EVENG WITH WINDS BCMG SELY OVER ALL WTRS. FAIRLY STAGNANT WX PATTERN
THEN INTO ERLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WITH THE SFC HI REMAINING OFFSHORE
AND LO PRES STAYING WELL W OF THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
PERSISTENT SLY FLOW TO DEVELOP...AVGG 10-15 KT. CONDS MAY COME CLOSE
TO SCA CRITERIA OVER THE BAY LATE EACH AFTN/EVENG BUT FOR NOW
FORECASTING MAINLY ~15 KT THERE WITH 2-3 FT WAVES. EXPECT 2-3 FT
SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS...UP TO 4 FT AT TIMES FOR NRN WTRS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JAO
MARINE...MAS



000
FXUS61 KRNK 231905
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
305 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTROL OUR
WEATHER. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY ON
THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH JUST AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE FOR A LATE DAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER TO THE
EAST...OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM EDT SATURDAY...

AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A VERY PLEASANT SATURDAY
UNDERWAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS GENERATING SOME
CUMULUS CLOUDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...TOPPED BY SOME
MID/HIGH CLOUDS MAKING THEIR WAY IN FROM THE WEST AS THEY SPILL OVER
THE UPPER RIDGE. THE CU WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING BUT THE
MID/HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR EAST CONTINUING TO BRING LIGHT WINDS TO THE AREA...THIS
SHOULD BE A DECENT SET UP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. IT DOES NOT
LOOK QUITE AS COOL AS LAST NIGHT WITH DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO BE A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER. EXPECT READINGS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S EAST OF THE RIDGE
WITH LOWER 40S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEYS...TO UPPER 40S/LOW 50S
EAST. FOG FORMATION WAS CONFINED TO ISOLATED PATCHES ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE NEW RIVER AND DO NOT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD
TONIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A CARBON COPY OF TODAY...DOES ANYONE KNOW
WHAT A CARBON COPY IS THESE DAYS?...WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING UP A FEW
DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM EDT SATURDAY...

WITH AN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD
BE EXCELLENT FOR THOSE PARTICIPATING IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HEIGHTS ALOFT
BUILDING THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST FOR TUESDAY.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES
EACH DAY DURING THIS PERIOD AND INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS.
INCREASED HIGHS ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO MONDAY WITH SURGING 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES.

CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM IN NW NC/FAR SW VA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS HIGHER THETA-E AIR ADVECTS INTO THIS REGION AND LOCAL
TERRAIN CONVERGENCE. ALTHOUGH IF THE SLOWER ECMWF VERIFIES...THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL AGAIN BE VOID OF PRECIPITATION. FOR
NOW...WILL ONLY KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON SHOWER/STORM
IN NW NC/FAR SW VA.

PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE IN THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY MOVES INTO THE REGION ON THE FAR EASTERN FRINGE OF THE
CENTRAL U.S. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. A DEEP SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
HELP PUSH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES BY TUESDAY HELPING TO
INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS. INCREASING
CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY SHOULD KEEP HIGHS ON TUESDAY SIMILAR TO
MONDAY...BUT IN THE EAST...CONTINUED TO GO A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE
GUIDANCE VALUES FOR HIGHS.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...

A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED AND DAILY CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN.

GEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW PWATS THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABV NORMAL. ALOFT...LONG RANGE MODELS
TAKE A CENTRAL U.S. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND WEAKEN IT AS IT MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN U.S. RIDGE. THIS WILL HELP DRAG A WEAK BOUNDARY
INTO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL HELP INCREASE COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION.

IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST LATE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...AS A NOSE OF 16+C 850MB
TEMPS NOSES INTO OUR AREA.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 735 AM EDT SATURDAY...

EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
EARLY AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW SOME HIGH BASED CU
DEVELOPING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WITH A BIT OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS
ABOVE. THE CU MAY DEVELOP INTO A VFR BKN CIG FROM TIME TO TIME AT
KBCB/KROA/KLWB BUT WILL ONLY CARRY SCT CLOUDS IN THE TAF AND AVOID
USING A TEMPO GROUP SINCE THERE IS NO CHANGE IN FLIGHT CAT. IT
LOOKS LIKE DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS FOR TONIGHT AND
THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG...BUT DEVELOPMENT WAS ISOLATED TO
THE NEW RIVER VALLEY LAST NIGHT AND DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOW
VISIBILITIES TONIGHT. WILL USE A TEMPO FOR MVFR VIS AT KLWB WHERE
FOG DEVELOPMENT CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED AND CARRY NO OBVIS
ELSEWHERE. TOMORROW LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER GOOD DAY TO FLY AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR EAST CONTINUES TO BRING FAIR WEATHER TO THE
REGION.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE. SOUTHWEST WINDS IN RETURN FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE BY
MONDAY. THIS MAY BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOUNTAIN AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY BY LATER
TUESDAY...WHEN PERIODS OF MVFR COULD OCCUR MAINLY BLUE RIDGE WEST.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY LATE DAY
CONVECTION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...PH
AVIATION...MBS



000
FXUS61 KRNK 231905
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
305 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTROL OUR
WEATHER. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY ON
THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH JUST AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE FOR A LATE DAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER TO THE
EAST...OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM EDT SATURDAY...

AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A VERY PLEASANT SATURDAY
UNDERWAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS GENERATING SOME
CUMULUS CLOUDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...TOPPED BY SOME
MID/HIGH CLOUDS MAKING THEIR WAY IN FROM THE WEST AS THEY SPILL OVER
THE UPPER RIDGE. THE CU WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING BUT THE
MID/HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR EAST CONTINUING TO BRING LIGHT WINDS TO THE AREA...THIS
SHOULD BE A DECENT SET UP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. IT DOES NOT
LOOK QUITE AS COOL AS LAST NIGHT WITH DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO BE A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER. EXPECT READINGS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S EAST OF THE RIDGE
WITH LOWER 40S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEYS...TO UPPER 40S/LOW 50S
EAST. FOG FORMATION WAS CONFINED TO ISOLATED PATCHES ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE NEW RIVER AND DO NOT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD
TONIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A CARBON COPY OF TODAY...DOES ANYONE KNOW
WHAT A CARBON COPY IS THESE DAYS?...WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING UP A FEW
DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM EDT SATURDAY...

WITH AN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD
BE EXCELLENT FOR THOSE PARTICIPATING IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HEIGHTS ALOFT
BUILDING THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST FOR TUESDAY.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES
EACH DAY DURING THIS PERIOD AND INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS.
INCREASED HIGHS ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO MONDAY WITH SURGING 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES.

CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM IN NW NC/FAR SW VA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS HIGHER THETA-E AIR ADVECTS INTO THIS REGION AND LOCAL
TERRAIN CONVERGENCE. ALTHOUGH IF THE SLOWER ECMWF VERIFIES...THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL AGAIN BE VOID OF PRECIPITATION. FOR
NOW...WILL ONLY KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON SHOWER/STORM
IN NW NC/FAR SW VA.

PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE IN THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY MOVES INTO THE REGION ON THE FAR EASTERN FRINGE OF THE
CENTRAL U.S. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. A DEEP SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
HELP PUSH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES BY TUESDAY HELPING TO
INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS. INCREASING
CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY SHOULD KEEP HIGHS ON TUESDAY SIMILAR TO
MONDAY...BUT IN THE EAST...CONTINUED TO GO A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE
GUIDANCE VALUES FOR HIGHS.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...

A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED AND DAILY CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN.

GEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW PWATS THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABV NORMAL. ALOFT...LONG RANGE MODELS
TAKE A CENTRAL U.S. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND WEAKEN IT AS IT MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN U.S. RIDGE. THIS WILL HELP DRAG A WEAK BOUNDARY
INTO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL HELP INCREASE COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION.

IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST LATE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...AS A NOSE OF 16+C 850MB
TEMPS NOSES INTO OUR AREA.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 735 AM EDT SATURDAY...

EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
EARLY AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW SOME HIGH BASED CU
DEVELOPING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WITH A BIT OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS
ABOVE. THE CU MAY DEVELOP INTO A VFR BKN CIG FROM TIME TO TIME AT
KBCB/KROA/KLWB BUT WILL ONLY CARRY SCT CLOUDS IN THE TAF AND AVOID
USING A TEMPO GROUP SINCE THERE IS NO CHANGE IN FLIGHT CAT. IT
LOOKS LIKE DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS FOR TONIGHT AND
THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG...BUT DEVELOPMENT WAS ISOLATED TO
THE NEW RIVER VALLEY LAST NIGHT AND DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOW
VISIBILITIES TONIGHT. WILL USE A TEMPO FOR MVFR VIS AT KLWB WHERE
FOG DEVELOPMENT CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED AND CARRY NO OBVIS
ELSEWHERE. TOMORROW LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER GOOD DAY TO FLY AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR EAST CONTINUES TO BRING FAIR WEATHER TO THE
REGION.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE. SOUTHWEST WINDS IN RETURN FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE BY
MONDAY. THIS MAY BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOUNTAIN AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY BY LATER
TUESDAY...WHEN PERIODS OF MVFR COULD OCCUR MAINLY BLUE RIDGE WEST.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY LATE DAY
CONVECTION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...PH
AVIATION...MBS



000
FXUS61 KRNK 231905
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
305 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTROL OUR
WEATHER. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY ON
THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH JUST AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE FOR A LATE DAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER TO THE
EAST...OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM EDT SATURDAY...

AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A VERY PLEASANT SATURDAY
UNDERWAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS GENERATING SOME
CUMULUS CLOUDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...TOPPED BY SOME
MID/HIGH CLOUDS MAKING THEIR WAY IN FROM THE WEST AS THEY SPILL OVER
THE UPPER RIDGE. THE CU WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING BUT THE
MID/HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR EAST CONTINUING TO BRING LIGHT WINDS TO THE AREA...THIS
SHOULD BE A DECENT SET UP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. IT DOES NOT
LOOK QUITE AS COOL AS LAST NIGHT WITH DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO BE A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER. EXPECT READINGS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S EAST OF THE RIDGE
WITH LOWER 40S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEYS...TO UPPER 40S/LOW 50S
EAST. FOG FORMATION WAS CONFINED TO ISOLATED PATCHES ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE NEW RIVER AND DO NOT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD
TONIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A CARBON COPY OF TODAY...DOES ANYONE KNOW
WHAT A CARBON COPY IS THESE DAYS?...WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING UP A FEW
DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM EDT SATURDAY...

WITH AN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD
BE EXCELLENT FOR THOSE PARTICIPATING IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HEIGHTS ALOFT
BUILDING THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST FOR TUESDAY.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES
EACH DAY DURING THIS PERIOD AND INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS.
INCREASED HIGHS ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO MONDAY WITH SURGING 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES.

CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM IN NW NC/FAR SW VA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS HIGHER THETA-E AIR ADVECTS INTO THIS REGION AND LOCAL
TERRAIN CONVERGENCE. ALTHOUGH IF THE SLOWER ECMWF VERIFIES...THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL AGAIN BE VOID OF PRECIPITATION. FOR
NOW...WILL ONLY KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON SHOWER/STORM
IN NW NC/FAR SW VA.

PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE IN THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY MOVES INTO THE REGION ON THE FAR EASTERN FRINGE OF THE
CENTRAL U.S. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. A DEEP SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
HELP PUSH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES BY TUESDAY HELPING TO
INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS. INCREASING
CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY SHOULD KEEP HIGHS ON TUESDAY SIMILAR TO
MONDAY...BUT IN THE EAST...CONTINUED TO GO A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE
GUIDANCE VALUES FOR HIGHS.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...

A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED AND DAILY CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN.

GEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW PWATS THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABV NORMAL. ALOFT...LONG RANGE MODELS
TAKE A CENTRAL U.S. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND WEAKEN IT AS IT MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN U.S. RIDGE. THIS WILL HELP DRAG A WEAK BOUNDARY
INTO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL HELP INCREASE COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION.

IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST LATE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...AS A NOSE OF 16+C 850MB
TEMPS NOSES INTO OUR AREA.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 735 AM EDT SATURDAY...

EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
EARLY AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW SOME HIGH BASED CU
DEVELOPING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WITH A BIT OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS
ABOVE. THE CU MAY DEVELOP INTO A VFR BKN CIG FROM TIME TO TIME AT
KBCB/KROA/KLWB BUT WILL ONLY CARRY SCT CLOUDS IN THE TAF AND AVOID
USING A TEMPO GROUP SINCE THERE IS NO CHANGE IN FLIGHT CAT. IT
LOOKS LIKE DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS FOR TONIGHT AND
THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG...BUT DEVELOPMENT WAS ISOLATED TO
THE NEW RIVER VALLEY LAST NIGHT AND DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOW
VISIBILITIES TONIGHT. WILL USE A TEMPO FOR MVFR VIS AT KLWB WHERE
FOG DEVELOPMENT CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED AND CARRY NO OBVIS
ELSEWHERE. TOMORROW LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER GOOD DAY TO FLY AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR EAST CONTINUES TO BRING FAIR WEATHER TO THE
REGION.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE. SOUTHWEST WINDS IN RETURN FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE BY
MONDAY. THIS MAY BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOUNTAIN AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY BY LATER
TUESDAY...WHEN PERIODS OF MVFR COULD OCCUR MAINLY BLUE RIDGE WEST.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY LATE DAY
CONVECTION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...PH
AVIATION...MBS



000
FXUS61 KRNK 231905
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
305 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTROL OUR
WEATHER. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY ON
THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH JUST AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE FOR A LATE DAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER TO THE
EAST...OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM EDT SATURDAY...

AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A VERY PLEASANT SATURDAY
UNDERWAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS GENERATING SOME
CUMULUS CLOUDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...TOPPED BY SOME
MID/HIGH CLOUDS MAKING THEIR WAY IN FROM THE WEST AS THEY SPILL OVER
THE UPPER RIDGE. THE CU WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING BUT THE
MID/HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR EAST CONTINUING TO BRING LIGHT WINDS TO THE AREA...THIS
SHOULD BE A DECENT SET UP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. IT DOES NOT
LOOK QUITE AS COOL AS LAST NIGHT WITH DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO BE A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER. EXPECT READINGS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S EAST OF THE RIDGE
WITH LOWER 40S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEYS...TO UPPER 40S/LOW 50S
EAST. FOG FORMATION WAS CONFINED TO ISOLATED PATCHES ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE NEW RIVER AND DO NOT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD
TONIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A CARBON COPY OF TODAY...DOES ANYONE KNOW
WHAT A CARBON COPY IS THESE DAYS?...WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING UP A FEW
DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM EDT SATURDAY...

WITH AN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD
BE EXCELLENT FOR THOSE PARTICIPATING IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HEIGHTS ALOFT
BUILDING THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST FOR TUESDAY.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES
EACH DAY DURING THIS PERIOD AND INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS.
INCREASED HIGHS ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO MONDAY WITH SURGING 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES.

CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM IN NW NC/FAR SW VA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS HIGHER THETA-E AIR ADVECTS INTO THIS REGION AND LOCAL
TERRAIN CONVERGENCE. ALTHOUGH IF THE SLOWER ECMWF VERIFIES...THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL AGAIN BE VOID OF PRECIPITATION. FOR
NOW...WILL ONLY KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON SHOWER/STORM
IN NW NC/FAR SW VA.

PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE IN THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY MOVES INTO THE REGION ON THE FAR EASTERN FRINGE OF THE
CENTRAL U.S. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. A DEEP SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
HELP PUSH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES BY TUESDAY HELPING TO
INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS. INCREASING
CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY SHOULD KEEP HIGHS ON TUESDAY SIMILAR TO
MONDAY...BUT IN THE EAST...CONTINUED TO GO A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE
GUIDANCE VALUES FOR HIGHS.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...

A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED AND DAILY CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN.

GEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW PWATS THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABV NORMAL. ALOFT...LONG RANGE MODELS
TAKE A CENTRAL U.S. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND WEAKEN IT AS IT MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN U.S. RIDGE. THIS WILL HELP DRAG A WEAK BOUNDARY
INTO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL HELP INCREASE COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION.

IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST LATE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...AS A NOSE OF 16+C 850MB
TEMPS NOSES INTO OUR AREA.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 735 AM EDT SATURDAY...

EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
EARLY AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW SOME HIGH BASED CU
DEVELOPING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WITH A BIT OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS
ABOVE. THE CU MAY DEVELOP INTO A VFR BKN CIG FROM TIME TO TIME AT
KBCB/KROA/KLWB BUT WILL ONLY CARRY SCT CLOUDS IN THE TAF AND AVOID
USING A TEMPO GROUP SINCE THERE IS NO CHANGE IN FLIGHT CAT. IT
LOOKS LIKE DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS FOR TONIGHT AND
THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG...BUT DEVELOPMENT WAS ISOLATED TO
THE NEW RIVER VALLEY LAST NIGHT AND DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOW
VISIBILITIES TONIGHT. WILL USE A TEMPO FOR MVFR VIS AT KLWB WHERE
FOG DEVELOPMENT CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED AND CARRY NO OBVIS
ELSEWHERE. TOMORROW LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER GOOD DAY TO FLY AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR EAST CONTINUES TO BRING FAIR WEATHER TO THE
REGION.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE. SOUTHWEST WINDS IN RETURN FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE BY
MONDAY. THIS MAY BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOUNTAIN AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY BY LATER
TUESDAY...WHEN PERIODS OF MVFR COULD OCCUR MAINLY BLUE RIDGE WEST.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY LATE DAY
CONVECTION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...PH
AVIATION...MBS



000
FXUS61 KLWX 231841
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
241 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AND
LINGER TO THE EAST THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. THE RETURN FLOW WILL
RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY. HOT AND HUMID
WEATHER WILL DOMINATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BETWEEN THE HIGH TO
THE EAST AND AN APPROACHING FRONT TO THE WEST...WITH A INCREASING
RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLOTTED A HIGH PRESSURE SITTING
DIRECTLY OVER VIRGINIA AT PRESENT...WITH A STORM SYSTEM FAR TO THE
NORTHWEST IN SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA AND ANOTHER FAR TO THE SOUTHWEST
OVER NEW MEXICO. THIS HAS ALLOWED MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS TO DOMINATE TODAY...BUT TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN COOLER THAN
NORMAL THANKS TO THE FRESH CANADIAN AIR MASS WHICH THE HIGH
BROUGHT WITH IT. THIS WILL NOT LAST LONG HOWEVER.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE JUST OFF THE COAST THIS
EVENING...SETTING UP A RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE ORIGINATING
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN BOTH WARMTH AND MOISTURE STARTING TONIGHT...BUT REALLY
GETTING UNDERWAY ON SUNDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A BIT MILDER THAN
LAST NIGHT THANKS TO AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY...WHILE WARMER AIR
MOVING IN ALOFT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN TODAY ON SUNDAY. AN APPROACHING AND BUILDING RIDGE
AXIS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP SUBSIDENCE IN
PLACE...PREVENTING ANY PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...WARM ADVECTION
WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN INCREASED CLOUD COVER BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
DEW POINTS WILL BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES HIGHER ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
COMPARED TO CURRENT READINGS...BUT NOT QUITE IN THE `HUMID` RANGE
JUST YET. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL START TO BECOME NOTICEABLE BUT
NOTHING PARTICULARLY BREEZY IS EXPECTED INLAND THRU SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE EAST COAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT HEAT AND HUMIDITY. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 IN DC/BALTIMORE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA BUT THE MAIN
PLUME OF HIGH PWATS WILL BE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY.
TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A CU FIELD ALONG THE
RIDGES AND CANT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER.

THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVOLVE DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL WAVES OF ENERGY RIDE ALONG THE OHIO
VALLEY. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED FROM THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS TO THE BLUE RIDGE. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY TO
REACH NEAR 90 OR INTO THE LOWER 90S WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHES A LITTLE FARTHER
EAST TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND I-95 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A FEW ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL APPROACH 90 WITH A WARM
AND STICKY NIGHT IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT.

A STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...KEEPING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND GUSTY
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND TO START THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
AND LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCAL ZONE OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CIGS AND VIS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS. WINDS
WHICH ARE CURRENTLY MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH TONIGHT AND PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...GUSTS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS ON SUNDAY BEFORE POTENTIALLY
EXCEEDING 25 KNOTS ON MONDAY. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SLACKEN A BIT MONDAY NIGHT.

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AT MRB...CHO AND IAD TERMINALS
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
ALL OTHER TERMINALS WILL BE MAINLY VFR. WINDS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5
TO 10 KNOTS GUSTS TO 15 KNOTS.

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS GUSTS
TO 15 KNOTS BECOMING NORTHWEST AT 5 KNOTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST...A SOUTHERLY WIND
WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE WHICH WILL CHANNEL UP CHESAPEAKE
BAY AND PRODUCE MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS...SO AN ADVISORY WAS
ISSUED FOR PRIMARILY THE SOUTHERN WATERS IN OUR RESPONSIBILITY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. NOTE THAT SCA CONDITIONS MAY EXPAND ON
MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SITS
OFF THE EAST COAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS PRODUCING A PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY WIND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ532>534-537-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...RCM
SHORT TERM...HAS/KLW
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...HAS/RCM/KLW
MARINE...HAS/RCM/KLW



000
FXUS61 KLWX 231841
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
241 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AND
LINGER TO THE EAST THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. THE RETURN FLOW WILL
RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY. HOT AND HUMID
WEATHER WILL DOMINATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BETWEEN THE HIGH TO
THE EAST AND AN APPROACHING FRONT TO THE WEST...WITH A INCREASING
RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLOTTED A HIGH PRESSURE SITTING
DIRECTLY OVER VIRGINIA AT PRESENT...WITH A STORM SYSTEM FAR TO THE
NORTHWEST IN SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA AND ANOTHER FAR TO THE SOUTHWEST
OVER NEW MEXICO. THIS HAS ALLOWED MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS TO DOMINATE TODAY...BUT TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN COOLER THAN
NORMAL THANKS TO THE FRESH CANADIAN AIR MASS WHICH THE HIGH
BROUGHT WITH IT. THIS WILL NOT LAST LONG HOWEVER.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE JUST OFF THE COAST THIS
EVENING...SETTING UP A RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE ORIGINATING
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN BOTH WARMTH AND MOISTURE STARTING TONIGHT...BUT REALLY
GETTING UNDERWAY ON SUNDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A BIT MILDER THAN
LAST NIGHT THANKS TO AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY...WHILE WARMER AIR
MOVING IN ALOFT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN TODAY ON SUNDAY. AN APPROACHING AND BUILDING RIDGE
AXIS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP SUBSIDENCE IN
PLACE...PREVENTING ANY PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...WARM ADVECTION
WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN INCREASED CLOUD COVER BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
DEW POINTS WILL BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES HIGHER ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
COMPARED TO CURRENT READINGS...BUT NOT QUITE IN THE `HUMID` RANGE
JUST YET. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL START TO BECOME NOTICEABLE BUT
NOTHING PARTICULARLY BREEZY IS EXPECTED INLAND THRU SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE EAST COAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT HEAT AND HUMIDITY. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 IN DC/BALTIMORE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA BUT THE MAIN
PLUME OF HIGH PWATS WILL BE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY.
TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A CU FIELD ALONG THE
RIDGES AND CANT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER.

THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVOLVE DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL WAVES OF ENERGY RIDE ALONG THE OHIO
VALLEY. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED FROM THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS TO THE BLUE RIDGE. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY TO
REACH NEAR 90 OR INTO THE LOWER 90S WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHES A LITTLE FARTHER
EAST TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND I-95 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A FEW ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL APPROACH 90 WITH A WARM
AND STICKY NIGHT IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT.

A STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...KEEPING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND GUSTY
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND TO START THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
AND LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCAL ZONE OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CIGS AND VIS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS. WINDS
WHICH ARE CURRENTLY MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH TONIGHT AND PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...GUSTS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS ON SUNDAY BEFORE POTENTIALLY
EXCEEDING 25 KNOTS ON MONDAY. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SLACKEN A BIT MONDAY NIGHT.

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AT MRB...CHO AND IAD TERMINALS
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
ALL OTHER TERMINALS WILL BE MAINLY VFR. WINDS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5
TO 10 KNOTS GUSTS TO 15 KNOTS.

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS GUSTS
TO 15 KNOTS BECOMING NORTHWEST AT 5 KNOTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST...A SOUTHERLY WIND
WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE WHICH WILL CHANNEL UP CHESAPEAKE
BAY AND PRODUCE MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS...SO AN ADVISORY WAS
ISSUED FOR PRIMARILY THE SOUTHERN WATERS IN OUR RESPONSIBILITY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. NOTE THAT SCA CONDITIONS MAY EXPAND ON
MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SITS
OFF THE EAST COAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS PRODUCING A PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY WIND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ532>534-537-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...RCM
SHORT TERM...HAS/KLW
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...HAS/RCM/KLW
MARINE...HAS/RCM/KLW



000
FXUS61 KLWX 231841
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
241 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AND
LINGER TO THE EAST THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. THE RETURN FLOW WILL
RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY. HOT AND HUMID
WEATHER WILL DOMINATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BETWEEN THE HIGH TO
THE EAST AND AN APPROACHING FRONT TO THE WEST...WITH A INCREASING
RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLOTTED A HIGH PRESSURE SITTING
DIRECTLY OVER VIRGINIA AT PRESENT...WITH A STORM SYSTEM FAR TO THE
NORTHWEST IN SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA AND ANOTHER FAR TO THE SOUTHWEST
OVER NEW MEXICO. THIS HAS ALLOWED MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS TO DOMINATE TODAY...BUT TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN COOLER THAN
NORMAL THANKS TO THE FRESH CANADIAN AIR MASS WHICH THE HIGH
BROUGHT WITH IT. THIS WILL NOT LAST LONG HOWEVER.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE JUST OFF THE COAST THIS
EVENING...SETTING UP A RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE ORIGINATING
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN BOTH WARMTH AND MOISTURE STARTING TONIGHT...BUT REALLY
GETTING UNDERWAY ON SUNDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A BIT MILDER THAN
LAST NIGHT THANKS TO AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY...WHILE WARMER AIR
MOVING IN ALOFT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN TODAY ON SUNDAY. AN APPROACHING AND BUILDING RIDGE
AXIS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP SUBSIDENCE IN
PLACE...PREVENTING ANY PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...WARM ADVECTION
WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN INCREASED CLOUD COVER BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
DEW POINTS WILL BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES HIGHER ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
COMPARED TO CURRENT READINGS...BUT NOT QUITE IN THE `HUMID` RANGE
JUST YET. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL START TO BECOME NOTICEABLE BUT
NOTHING PARTICULARLY BREEZY IS EXPECTED INLAND THRU SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE EAST COAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT HEAT AND HUMIDITY. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 IN DC/BALTIMORE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA BUT THE MAIN
PLUME OF HIGH PWATS WILL BE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY.
TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A CU FIELD ALONG THE
RIDGES AND CANT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER.

THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVOLVE DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL WAVES OF ENERGY RIDE ALONG THE OHIO
VALLEY. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED FROM THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS TO THE BLUE RIDGE. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY TO
REACH NEAR 90 OR INTO THE LOWER 90S WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHES A LITTLE FARTHER
EAST TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND I-95 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A FEW ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL APPROACH 90 WITH A WARM
AND STICKY NIGHT IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT.

A STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...KEEPING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND GUSTY
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND TO START THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
AND LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCAL ZONE OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CIGS AND VIS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS. WINDS
WHICH ARE CURRENTLY MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH TONIGHT AND PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...GUSTS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS ON SUNDAY BEFORE POTENTIALLY
EXCEEDING 25 KNOTS ON MONDAY. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SLACKEN A BIT MONDAY NIGHT.

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AT MRB...CHO AND IAD TERMINALS
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
ALL OTHER TERMINALS WILL BE MAINLY VFR. WINDS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5
TO 10 KNOTS GUSTS TO 15 KNOTS.

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS GUSTS
TO 15 KNOTS BECOMING NORTHWEST AT 5 KNOTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST...A SOUTHERLY WIND
WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE WHICH WILL CHANNEL UP CHESAPEAKE
BAY AND PRODUCE MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS...SO AN ADVISORY WAS
ISSUED FOR PRIMARILY THE SOUTHERN WATERS IN OUR RESPONSIBILITY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. NOTE THAT SCA CONDITIONS MAY EXPAND ON
MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SITS
OFF THE EAST COAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS PRODUCING A PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY WIND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ532>534-537-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...RCM
SHORT TERM...HAS/KLW
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...HAS/RCM/KLW
MARINE...HAS/RCM/KLW



000
FXUS61 KLWX 231841
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
241 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AND
LINGER TO THE EAST THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. THE RETURN FLOW WILL
RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY. HOT AND HUMID
WEATHER WILL DOMINATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BETWEEN THE HIGH TO
THE EAST AND AN APPROACHING FRONT TO THE WEST...WITH A INCREASING
RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLOTTED A HIGH PRESSURE SITTING
DIRECTLY OVER VIRGINIA AT PRESENT...WITH A STORM SYSTEM FAR TO THE
NORTHWEST IN SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA AND ANOTHER FAR TO THE SOUTHWEST
OVER NEW MEXICO. THIS HAS ALLOWED MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS TO DOMINATE TODAY...BUT TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN COOLER THAN
NORMAL THANKS TO THE FRESH CANADIAN AIR MASS WHICH THE HIGH
BROUGHT WITH IT. THIS WILL NOT LAST LONG HOWEVER.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE JUST OFF THE COAST THIS
EVENING...SETTING UP A RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE ORIGINATING
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN BOTH WARMTH AND MOISTURE STARTING TONIGHT...BUT REALLY
GETTING UNDERWAY ON SUNDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A BIT MILDER THAN
LAST NIGHT THANKS TO AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY...WHILE WARMER AIR
MOVING IN ALOFT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN TODAY ON SUNDAY. AN APPROACHING AND BUILDING RIDGE
AXIS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP SUBSIDENCE IN
PLACE...PREVENTING ANY PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...WARM ADVECTION
WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN INCREASED CLOUD COVER BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
DEW POINTS WILL BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES HIGHER ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
COMPARED TO CURRENT READINGS...BUT NOT QUITE IN THE `HUMID` RANGE
JUST YET. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL START TO BECOME NOTICEABLE BUT
NOTHING PARTICULARLY BREEZY IS EXPECTED INLAND THRU SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE EAST COAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT HEAT AND HUMIDITY. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 IN DC/BALTIMORE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA BUT THE MAIN
PLUME OF HIGH PWATS WILL BE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY.
TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A CU FIELD ALONG THE
RIDGES AND CANT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER.

THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVOLVE DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL WAVES OF ENERGY RIDE ALONG THE OHIO
VALLEY. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED FROM THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS TO THE BLUE RIDGE. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY TO
REACH NEAR 90 OR INTO THE LOWER 90S WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHES A LITTLE FARTHER
EAST TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND I-95 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A FEW ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL APPROACH 90 WITH A WARM
AND STICKY NIGHT IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT.

A STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...KEEPING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND GUSTY
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND TO START THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
AND LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCAL ZONE OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CIGS AND VIS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS. WINDS
WHICH ARE CURRENTLY MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH TONIGHT AND PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...GUSTS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS ON SUNDAY BEFORE POTENTIALLY
EXCEEDING 25 KNOTS ON MONDAY. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SLACKEN A BIT MONDAY NIGHT.

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AT MRB...CHO AND IAD TERMINALS
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
ALL OTHER TERMINALS WILL BE MAINLY VFR. WINDS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5
TO 10 KNOTS GUSTS TO 15 KNOTS.

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS GUSTS
TO 15 KNOTS BECOMING NORTHWEST AT 5 KNOTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST...A SOUTHERLY WIND
WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE WHICH WILL CHANNEL UP CHESAPEAKE
BAY AND PRODUCE MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS...SO AN ADVISORY WAS
ISSUED FOR PRIMARILY THE SOUTHERN WATERS IN OUR RESPONSIBILITY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. NOTE THAT SCA CONDITIONS MAY EXPAND ON
MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SITS
OFF THE EAST COAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS PRODUCING A PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY WIND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ532>534-537-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...RCM
SHORT TERM...HAS/KLW
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...HAS/RCM/KLW
MARINE...HAS/RCM/KLW



000
FXUS61 KLWX 231841
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
241 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AND
LINGER TO THE EAST THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. THE RETURN FLOW WILL
RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY. HOT AND HUMID
WEATHER WILL DOMINATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BETWEEN THE HIGH TO
THE EAST AND AN APPROACHING FRONT TO THE WEST...WITH A INCREASING
RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLOTTED A HIGH PRESSURE SITTING
DIRECTLY OVER VIRGINIA AT PRESENT...WITH A STORM SYSTEM FAR TO THE
NORTHWEST IN SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA AND ANOTHER FAR TO THE SOUTHWEST
OVER NEW MEXICO. THIS HAS ALLOWED MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS TO DOMINATE TODAY...BUT TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN COOLER THAN
NORMAL THANKS TO THE FRESH CANADIAN AIR MASS WHICH THE HIGH
BROUGHT WITH IT. THIS WILL NOT LAST LONG HOWEVER.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE JUST OFF THE COAST THIS
EVENING...SETTING UP A RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE ORIGINATING
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN BOTH WARMTH AND MOISTURE STARTING TONIGHT...BUT REALLY
GETTING UNDERWAY ON SUNDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A BIT MILDER THAN
LAST NIGHT THANKS TO AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY...WHILE WARMER AIR
MOVING IN ALOFT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN TODAY ON SUNDAY. AN APPROACHING AND BUILDING RIDGE
AXIS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP SUBSIDENCE IN
PLACE...PREVENTING ANY PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...WARM ADVECTION
WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN INCREASED CLOUD COVER BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
DEW POINTS WILL BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES HIGHER ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
COMPARED TO CURRENT READINGS...BUT NOT QUITE IN THE `HUMID` RANGE
JUST YET. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL START TO BECOME NOTICEABLE BUT
NOTHING PARTICULARLY BREEZY IS EXPECTED INLAND THRU SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE EAST COAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT HEAT AND HUMIDITY. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 IN DC/BALTIMORE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA BUT THE MAIN
PLUME OF HIGH PWATS WILL BE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY.
TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A CU FIELD ALONG THE
RIDGES AND CANT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER.

THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVOLVE DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL WAVES OF ENERGY RIDE ALONG THE OHIO
VALLEY. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED FROM THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS TO THE BLUE RIDGE. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY TO
REACH NEAR 90 OR INTO THE LOWER 90S WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHES A LITTLE FARTHER
EAST TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND I-95 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A FEW ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL APPROACH 90 WITH A WARM
AND STICKY NIGHT IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT.

A STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...KEEPING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND GUSTY
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND TO START THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
AND LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCAL ZONE OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CIGS AND VIS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS. WINDS
WHICH ARE CURRENTLY MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH TONIGHT AND PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...GUSTS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS ON SUNDAY BEFORE POTENTIALLY
EXCEEDING 25 KNOTS ON MONDAY. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SLACKEN A BIT MONDAY NIGHT.

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AT MRB...CHO AND IAD TERMINALS
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
ALL OTHER TERMINALS WILL BE MAINLY VFR. WINDS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5
TO 10 KNOTS GUSTS TO 15 KNOTS.

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS GUSTS
TO 15 KNOTS BECOMING NORTHWEST AT 5 KNOTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST...A SOUTHERLY WIND
WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE WHICH WILL CHANNEL UP CHESAPEAKE
BAY AND PRODUCE MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS...SO AN ADVISORY WAS
ISSUED FOR PRIMARILY THE SOUTHERN WATERS IN OUR RESPONSIBILITY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. NOTE THAT SCA CONDITIONS MAY EXPAND ON
MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SITS
OFF THE EAST COAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS PRODUCING A PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY WIND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ532>534-537-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...RCM
SHORT TERM...HAS/KLW
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...HAS/RCM/KLW
MARINE...HAS/RCM/KLW




000
FXUS61 KLWX 231841
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
241 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AND
LINGER TO THE EAST THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. THE RETURN FLOW WILL
RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY. HOT AND HUMID
WEATHER WILL DOMINATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BETWEEN THE HIGH TO
THE EAST AND AN APPROACHING FRONT TO THE WEST...WITH A INCREASING
RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLOTTED A HIGH PRESSURE SITTING
DIRECTLY OVER VIRGINIA AT PRESENT...WITH A STORM SYSTEM FAR TO THE
NORTHWEST IN SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA AND ANOTHER FAR TO THE SOUTHWEST
OVER NEW MEXICO. THIS HAS ALLOWED MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS TO DOMINATE TODAY...BUT TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN COOLER THAN
NORMAL THANKS TO THE FRESH CANADIAN AIR MASS WHICH THE HIGH
BROUGHT WITH IT. THIS WILL NOT LAST LONG HOWEVER.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE JUST OFF THE COAST THIS
EVENING...SETTING UP A RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE ORIGINATING
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN BOTH WARMTH AND MOISTURE STARTING TONIGHT...BUT REALLY
GETTING UNDERWAY ON SUNDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A BIT MILDER THAN
LAST NIGHT THANKS TO AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY...WHILE WARMER AIR
MOVING IN ALOFT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN TODAY ON SUNDAY. AN APPROACHING AND BUILDING RIDGE
AXIS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP SUBSIDENCE IN
PLACE...PREVENTING ANY PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...WARM ADVECTION
WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN INCREASED CLOUD COVER BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
DEW POINTS WILL BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES HIGHER ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
COMPARED TO CURRENT READINGS...BUT NOT QUITE IN THE `HUMID` RANGE
JUST YET. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL START TO BECOME NOTICEABLE BUT
NOTHING PARTICULARLY BREEZY IS EXPECTED INLAND THRU SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE EAST COAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT HEAT AND HUMIDITY. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 IN DC/BALTIMORE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA BUT THE MAIN
PLUME OF HIGH PWATS WILL BE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY.
TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A CU FIELD ALONG THE
RIDGES AND CANT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER.

THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVOLVE DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL WAVES OF ENERGY RIDE ALONG THE OHIO
VALLEY. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED FROM THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS TO THE BLUE RIDGE. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY TO
REACH NEAR 90 OR INTO THE LOWER 90S WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHES A LITTLE FARTHER
EAST TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND I-95 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A FEW ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL APPROACH 90 WITH A WARM
AND STICKY NIGHT IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT.

A STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...KEEPING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND GUSTY
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND TO START THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
AND LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCAL ZONE OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CIGS AND VIS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS. WINDS
WHICH ARE CURRENTLY MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH TONIGHT AND PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...GUSTS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS ON SUNDAY BEFORE POTENTIALLY
EXCEEDING 25 KNOTS ON MONDAY. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SLACKEN A BIT MONDAY NIGHT.

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AT MRB...CHO AND IAD TERMINALS
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
ALL OTHER TERMINALS WILL BE MAINLY VFR. WINDS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5
TO 10 KNOTS GUSTS TO 15 KNOTS.

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS GUSTS
TO 15 KNOTS BECOMING NORTHWEST AT 5 KNOTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST...A SOUTHERLY WIND
WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE WHICH WILL CHANNEL UP CHESAPEAKE
BAY AND PRODUCE MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS...SO AN ADVISORY WAS
ISSUED FOR PRIMARILY THE SOUTHERN WATERS IN OUR RESPONSIBILITY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. NOTE THAT SCA CONDITIONS MAY EXPAND ON
MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SITS
OFF THE EAST COAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS PRODUCING A PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY WIND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ532>534-537-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...RCM
SHORT TERM...HAS/KLW
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...HAS/RCM/KLW
MARINE...HAS/RCM/KLW




000
FXUS61 KLWX 231841
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
241 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AND
LINGER TO THE EAST THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. THE RETURN FLOW WILL
RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY. HOT AND HUMID
WEATHER WILL DOMINATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BETWEEN THE HIGH TO
THE EAST AND AN APPROACHING FRONT TO THE WEST...WITH A INCREASING
RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLOTTED A HIGH PRESSURE SITTING
DIRECTLY OVER VIRGINIA AT PRESENT...WITH A STORM SYSTEM FAR TO THE
NORTHWEST IN SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA AND ANOTHER FAR TO THE SOUTHWEST
OVER NEW MEXICO. THIS HAS ALLOWED MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS TO DOMINATE TODAY...BUT TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN COOLER THAN
NORMAL THANKS TO THE FRESH CANADIAN AIR MASS WHICH THE HIGH
BROUGHT WITH IT. THIS WILL NOT LAST LONG HOWEVER.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE JUST OFF THE COAST THIS
EVENING...SETTING UP A RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE ORIGINATING
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN BOTH WARMTH AND MOISTURE STARTING TONIGHT...BUT REALLY
GETTING UNDERWAY ON SUNDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A BIT MILDER THAN
LAST NIGHT THANKS TO AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY...WHILE WARMER AIR
MOVING IN ALOFT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN TODAY ON SUNDAY. AN APPROACHING AND BUILDING RIDGE
AXIS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP SUBSIDENCE IN
PLACE...PREVENTING ANY PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...WARM ADVECTION
WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN INCREASED CLOUD COVER BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
DEW POINTS WILL BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES HIGHER ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
COMPARED TO CURRENT READINGS...BUT NOT QUITE IN THE `HUMID` RANGE
JUST YET. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL START TO BECOME NOTICEABLE BUT
NOTHING PARTICULARLY BREEZY IS EXPECTED INLAND THRU SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE EAST COAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT HEAT AND HUMIDITY. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 IN DC/BALTIMORE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA BUT THE MAIN
PLUME OF HIGH PWATS WILL BE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY.
TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A CU FIELD ALONG THE
RIDGES AND CANT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER.

THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVOLVE DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL WAVES OF ENERGY RIDE ALONG THE OHIO
VALLEY. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED FROM THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS TO THE BLUE RIDGE. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY TO
REACH NEAR 90 OR INTO THE LOWER 90S WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHES A LITTLE FARTHER
EAST TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND I-95 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A FEW ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL APPROACH 90 WITH A WARM
AND STICKY NIGHT IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT.

A STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...KEEPING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND GUSTY
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND TO START THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
AND LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCAL ZONE OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CIGS AND VIS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS. WINDS
WHICH ARE CURRENTLY MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH TONIGHT AND PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...GUSTS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS ON SUNDAY BEFORE POTENTIALLY
EXCEEDING 25 KNOTS ON MONDAY. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SLACKEN A BIT MONDAY NIGHT.

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AT MRB...CHO AND IAD TERMINALS
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
ALL OTHER TERMINALS WILL BE MAINLY VFR. WINDS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5
TO 10 KNOTS GUSTS TO 15 KNOTS.

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS GUSTS
TO 15 KNOTS BECOMING NORTHWEST AT 5 KNOTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST...A SOUTHERLY WIND
WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE WHICH WILL CHANNEL UP CHESAPEAKE
BAY AND PRODUCE MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS...SO AN ADVISORY WAS
ISSUED FOR PRIMARILY THE SOUTHERN WATERS IN OUR RESPONSIBILITY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. NOTE THAT SCA CONDITIONS MAY EXPAND ON
MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SITS
OFF THE EAST COAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS PRODUCING A PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY WIND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ532>534-537-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...RCM
SHORT TERM...HAS/KLW
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...HAS/RCM/KLW
MARINE...HAS/RCM/KLW




000
FXUS61 KLWX 231841
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
241 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AND
LINGER TO THE EAST THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. THE RETURN FLOW WILL
RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY. HOT AND HUMID
WEATHER WILL DOMINATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BETWEEN THE HIGH TO
THE EAST AND AN APPROACHING FRONT TO THE WEST...WITH A INCREASING
RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLOTTED A HIGH PRESSURE SITTING
DIRECTLY OVER VIRGINIA AT PRESENT...WITH A STORM SYSTEM FAR TO THE
NORTHWEST IN SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA AND ANOTHER FAR TO THE SOUTHWEST
OVER NEW MEXICO. THIS HAS ALLOWED MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS TO DOMINATE TODAY...BUT TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN COOLER THAN
NORMAL THANKS TO THE FRESH CANADIAN AIR MASS WHICH THE HIGH
BROUGHT WITH IT. THIS WILL NOT LAST LONG HOWEVER.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE JUST OFF THE COAST THIS
EVENING...SETTING UP A RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE ORIGINATING
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN BOTH WARMTH AND MOISTURE STARTING TONIGHT...BUT REALLY
GETTING UNDERWAY ON SUNDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A BIT MILDER THAN
LAST NIGHT THANKS TO AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY...WHILE WARMER AIR
MOVING IN ALOFT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN TODAY ON SUNDAY. AN APPROACHING AND BUILDING RIDGE
AXIS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP SUBSIDENCE IN
PLACE...PREVENTING ANY PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...WARM ADVECTION
WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN INCREASED CLOUD COVER BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
DEW POINTS WILL BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES HIGHER ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
COMPARED TO CURRENT READINGS...BUT NOT QUITE IN THE `HUMID` RANGE
JUST YET. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL START TO BECOME NOTICEABLE BUT
NOTHING PARTICULARLY BREEZY IS EXPECTED INLAND THRU SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE EAST COAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT HEAT AND HUMIDITY. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 IN DC/BALTIMORE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA BUT THE MAIN
PLUME OF HIGH PWATS WILL BE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY.
TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A CU FIELD ALONG THE
RIDGES AND CANT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER.

THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVOLVE DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL WAVES OF ENERGY RIDE ALONG THE OHIO
VALLEY. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED FROM THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS TO THE BLUE RIDGE. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY TO
REACH NEAR 90 OR INTO THE LOWER 90S WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHES A LITTLE FARTHER
EAST TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND I-95 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A FEW ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL APPROACH 90 WITH A WARM
AND STICKY NIGHT IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT.

A STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...KEEPING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND GUSTY
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND TO START THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
AND LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCAL ZONE OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CIGS AND VIS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS. WINDS
WHICH ARE CURRENTLY MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH TONIGHT AND PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...GUSTS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS ON SUNDAY BEFORE POTENTIALLY
EXCEEDING 25 KNOTS ON MONDAY. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SLACKEN A BIT MONDAY NIGHT.

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AT MRB...CHO AND IAD TERMINALS
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
ALL OTHER TERMINALS WILL BE MAINLY VFR. WINDS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5
TO 10 KNOTS GUSTS TO 15 KNOTS.

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS GUSTS
TO 15 KNOTS BECOMING NORTHWEST AT 5 KNOTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST...A SOUTHERLY WIND
WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE WHICH WILL CHANNEL UP CHESAPEAKE
BAY AND PRODUCE MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS...SO AN ADVISORY WAS
ISSUED FOR PRIMARILY THE SOUTHERN WATERS IN OUR RESPONSIBILITY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. NOTE THAT SCA CONDITIONS MAY EXPAND ON
MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SITS
OFF THE EAST COAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS PRODUCING A PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY WIND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ532>534-537-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...RCM
SHORT TERM...HAS/KLW
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...HAS/RCM/KLW
MARINE...HAS/RCM/KLW




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 231831
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
231 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY...BEFORE SLIDING
OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT AND REMAINING JUST OFF THE COAST THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRS MOVES ACROSS THE FA THIS AFTRN. A PLEASANT DAY WITH
N-NE WINDS GRDLLY BECOME E-SE. MSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS SCT-BKN CI
SPILLS EAST OF MTS. HIGHS IN THE L-M70S ALONG WITH COMFY HUMIDITY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/LOWER
MID- ATLANTIC COAST AS SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT.
RESULTANT LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO THE SSE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A MODEST INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS OVERNIGHT, BUT WITH
MOSTLY CLR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS, EXPECT A COOL NIGHT. LOOK FOR
EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE U40S TO LOW 50S INLAND TO MID 50S SE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK TO BE
CHARACTERIZED BY GRADUAL WARMING TREND ON SLY FLOW WITH THE SFC
HIGH ORIENTED OFFSHORE AND AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING ACROSS
THE ERN SEABOARD. SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE WILL
ONCE AGAIN SERVE TO KEEP POPS AT A MINIMUM...AND THUS HAVE KEPT
THE FORECAST DRY DESPITE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. LOOK FOR HI TEMPS SUN IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S TO
WARM INTO THE MID TO UPR 80S MON...AND THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S ON
TUESDAY. EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S, BUT WILL
SIMILARLY WARM SLIGHTLY EACH MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE CONTINUES TO APPEAR TO BE DOMINATED WITH A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SE/MID ATLC STATES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LATEST ECMWF/GFS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH
THE GFS STILL A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE AT BREAKING DOWN/WEAKENING
THE RIDGE BY MID TO LATE WEEK (THOUGH NOT TO THE EXTENT IT HAD
BEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS). MODELS ALSO DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH
RESPECT TO 850 MB TEMPERATURES...THE ECMWF REMAINING WARMER BY
ABOUT 2-3 C THAN THE GFS. OVERALL...THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO WARM
/SUMMER-LIKE/ WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH VERY MINIMAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN...LIMITED TO ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY
LATE AFTN OR EVENING TSTMS DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
DRIFTING INTO THE REGION. WILL HAVE JUST 20% POP OVER JUST THE FAR
NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON WED...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THU/FRI (UP TO 30% FAR NW).
INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH TEMPS WARMING BACK TO THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS (GFS
HIGHS ONLY IN MID 80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS
PATTERN). CONDITIONS WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE
COAST. LOWS AVG IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF VA...MD AND
NC THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES. WINDS CLOSE TO THE COAST
AND BAY WERE GENERALLY ENE AROUND 10 KT OR LESS WITH SOME LOCAL
DEVIATIONS IN WIND DIRECTION DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS. INLAND AREAS
WINDS WERE GENETERALLY N TO NE AROUND 5 TO 10 KT. AS HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING WINDS BECOME SE AND
THEN S OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH
THE PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...SCA FLAGS DROPPED FOR ALL OF CHES BAY.

A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE AND WILL STALL AS HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH AND SLIDES OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS ON THE BAY THIS MORNING ARE AROUND 10 TO 15 KT AND WAVES
AROUND 2 FT. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS WINDS
GRUADUALLY BECOME EAST.

THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS QUICKLY BEHIND THE WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON...THEREFORE EXPECT WINDS TO
DECREASE BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH BUILDS
OVERHEAD. WINDS SHIFT TO THE S-SE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. WINDS SHOULD THEN FOLLOW A DIURNAL
PATTERN...INCREASING A BIT MAINLY IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING/EARLY
AM HRS LATE SUN THROUGH MID WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS WITH
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST. OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN SUB- SCA ALTHOUGH SLY WINDS MAY GUST TO NEAR 20KT
IN THE BAY DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED DIURNAL SURGES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...BMD/JAO
MARINE...BMD/JAO




000
FXUS61 KRNK 231806
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
206 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NO MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT OUR REGION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST STAYS
IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND WITH
HEAT AND HUMIDITY ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WITH JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A LATE DAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES FURTHER TO THE EAST...OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 953 AM EDT SATURDAY...

EARLY MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE FOR MOST OF THE REGION BUT SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE
STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST...AND BELIEVE THIS WILL BE THE CASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ALSO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE AROUND THE BLUE RIDGE TO FORM SOME HIGH
BASED CU DURING THE AFTERNOON. MORNING SOUNDINGS AND EXPECTED
WARMING ALOFT SUPPORT THE CURRENT HIGH TEMPS FORECAST OF GENERALLY
UPPER 60S/LOW 70S WEST OF THE RIDGE WITH LOW/MID 70S EAST.

PREVIOUS AFD...

THIS MIGHT BE THE LAST DAY WITH NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS DUE TO
THE BUILDING EAST COAST RIDGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
FORECAST PERIOD. LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY UPPER 40S TO MID-50S WHICH
IS VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...

CANT ARGUE WITH PREVIOUS SENTIMENTS EXPRESSED WITH REGARD TO THE
BARBECUE. NEARLY IDEAL WEATHER FOR LATE MAY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AMPLIFIES INTO A 590+ DM RIDGE
AND THE SURFACE HIGH OFF THE COAST ALSO BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY
WHILE MAINTAINING A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THIS WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
CONVECTION AND STORMINESS FROM WHERE IT HAS BEEN FOR SEVERAL WEEKS
NOW...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGHS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL CLIMB A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY AND BE ABOVE NORMAL BY
SUNDAY REACHING THE MID-80S EAST AND NEAR 80 WEST. CANT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO LOCAL TERRAIN CONVERGENCE EFFECTS AS MOISTURE
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. SYSTEM IS SLOWLY DRAWN EASTWARD. TUESDAY
WILL BE MUCH THE SAME BUT WITH A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION AGAIN MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT POPS ONLY
RISE INTO 30S FOR THE AFTERNOON...AGAIN DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE
AND DYNAMICS FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. EDGING SLOWLY EASTWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...

SUMMERLIKE PATTERN TO CLOSE OUT THE LAST WEEK OF MAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK...THE
ACTUAL SURFACE HIGH BECOMING ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS WILL PLACE OUR FORECAST AREA IN AN IN INCREASINGLY MUGGY
PATTERN WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S TO COMPLIMENT THE
UPWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S/NEAR 90.

THE WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEEP
CONVECTION.  FORCING WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY THEN AREAWIDE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
TRIES TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE WEEK APPEARS TO BE
LOW...DYNAMIC SUPPORT LACKING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 735 AM EDT SATURDAY...

EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
EARLY AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW SOME HIGH BASED CU
DEVELOPING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WITH A BIT OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS
ABOVE. THE CU MAY DEVELOP INTO A VFR BKN CIG FROM TIME TO TIME AT
KBCB/KROA/KLWB BUT WILL ONLY CARRY SCT CLOUDS IN THE TAF AND AVOID
USING A TEMPO GROUP SINCE THERE IS NO CHANGE IN FLIGHT CAT. IT
LOOKS LIKE DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS FOR TONIGHT AND
THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG...BUT DEVELOPMENT WAS ISOLATED TO
THE NEW RIVER VALLEY LAST NIGHT AND DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOW
VISIBILITIES TONIGHT. WILL USE A TEMPO FOR MVFR VIS AT KLWB WHERE
FOG DEVELOPMENT CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED AND CARRY NO OBVIS
ELSEWHERE. TOMORROW LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER GOOD DAY TO FLY AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR EAST CONTINUES TO BRING FAIR WEATHER TO THE
REGION.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE. SOUTHWEST WINDS IN RETURN FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE BY
MONDAY. THIS MAY BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOUNTAIN AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY BY LATER
TUESDAY...WHEN PERIODS OF MVFR COULD OCCUR MAINLY BLUE RIDGE WEST.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY LATE DAY
CONVECTION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS/PC
SHORT TERM...DS/PC
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...MBS/PC



000
FXUS61 KRNK 231806
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
206 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NO MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT OUR REGION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST STAYS
IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND WITH
HEAT AND HUMIDITY ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WITH JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A LATE DAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES FURTHER TO THE EAST...OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 953 AM EDT SATURDAY...

EARLY MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE FOR MOST OF THE REGION BUT SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE
STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST...AND BELIEVE THIS WILL BE THE CASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ALSO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE AROUND THE BLUE RIDGE TO FORM SOME HIGH
BASED CU DURING THE AFTERNOON. MORNING SOUNDINGS AND EXPECTED
WARMING ALOFT SUPPORT THE CURRENT HIGH TEMPS FORECAST OF GENERALLY
UPPER 60S/LOW 70S WEST OF THE RIDGE WITH LOW/MID 70S EAST.

PREVIOUS AFD...

THIS MIGHT BE THE LAST DAY WITH NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS DUE TO
THE BUILDING EAST COAST RIDGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
FORECAST PERIOD. LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY UPPER 40S TO MID-50S WHICH
IS VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...

CANT ARGUE WITH PREVIOUS SENTIMENTS EXPRESSED WITH REGARD TO THE
BARBECUE. NEARLY IDEAL WEATHER FOR LATE MAY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AMPLIFIES INTO A 590+ DM RIDGE
AND THE SURFACE HIGH OFF THE COAST ALSO BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY
WHILE MAINTAINING A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THIS WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
CONVECTION AND STORMINESS FROM WHERE IT HAS BEEN FOR SEVERAL WEEKS
NOW...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGHS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL CLIMB A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY AND BE ABOVE NORMAL BY
SUNDAY REACHING THE MID-80S EAST AND NEAR 80 WEST. CANT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO LOCAL TERRAIN CONVERGENCE EFFECTS AS MOISTURE
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. SYSTEM IS SLOWLY DRAWN EASTWARD. TUESDAY
WILL BE MUCH THE SAME BUT WITH A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION AGAIN MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT POPS ONLY
RISE INTO 30S FOR THE AFTERNOON...AGAIN DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE
AND DYNAMICS FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. EDGING SLOWLY EASTWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...

SUMMERLIKE PATTERN TO CLOSE OUT THE LAST WEEK OF MAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK...THE
ACTUAL SURFACE HIGH BECOMING ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS WILL PLACE OUR FORECAST AREA IN AN IN INCREASINGLY MUGGY
PATTERN WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S TO COMPLIMENT THE
UPWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S/NEAR 90.

THE WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEEP
CONVECTION.  FORCING WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY THEN AREAWIDE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
TRIES TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE WEEK APPEARS TO BE
LOW...DYNAMIC SUPPORT LACKING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 735 AM EDT SATURDAY...

EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
EARLY AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW SOME HIGH BASED CU
DEVELOPING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WITH A BIT OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS
ABOVE. THE CU MAY DEVELOP INTO A VFR BKN CIG FROM TIME TO TIME AT
KBCB/KROA/KLWB BUT WILL ONLY CARRY SCT CLOUDS IN THE TAF AND AVOID
USING A TEMPO GROUP SINCE THERE IS NO CHANGE IN FLIGHT CAT. IT
LOOKS LIKE DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS FOR TONIGHT AND
THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG...BUT DEVELOPMENT WAS ISOLATED TO
THE NEW RIVER VALLEY LAST NIGHT AND DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOW
VISIBILITIES TONIGHT. WILL USE A TEMPO FOR MVFR VIS AT KLWB WHERE
FOG DEVELOPMENT CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED AND CARRY NO OBVIS
ELSEWHERE. TOMORROW LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER GOOD DAY TO FLY AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR EAST CONTINUES TO BRING FAIR WEATHER TO THE
REGION.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE. SOUTHWEST WINDS IN RETURN FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE BY
MONDAY. THIS MAY BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOUNTAIN AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY BY LATER
TUESDAY...WHEN PERIODS OF MVFR COULD OCCUR MAINLY BLUE RIDGE WEST.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY LATE DAY
CONVECTION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS/PC
SHORT TERM...DS/PC
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...MBS/PC




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 231516
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1116 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY...BEFORE SLIDING
OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT AND REMAINING JUST OFF THE COAST THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRS MOVES ACROSS THE FA THIS AFTRN. A PLEASANT DAY WITH
N-NE WINDS GRDLLY BECOME E-SE. MSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS SCT-BKN CI
SPILLS EAST OF MTS. HIGHS IN THE L-M70S ALONG WITH COMFY HUMIDITY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/LOWER
MID- ATLANTIC COAST AS SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT.
RESULTANT LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO THE SSE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A MODEST INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS OVERNIGHT, BUT WITH
MOSTLY CLR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS, EXPECT A COOL NIGHT. LOOK FOR
EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE U40S TO LOW 50S INLAND TO MID 50S SE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK TO BE
CHARACTERIZED BY GRADUAL WARMING TREND ON SLY FLOW WITH THE SFC
HIGH ORIENTED OFFSHORE AND AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING ACROSS
THE ERN SEABOARD. SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE WILL
ONCE AGAIN SERVE TO KEEP POPS AT A MINIMUM...AND THUS HAVE KEPT
THE FORECAST DRY DESPITE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. LOOK FOR HI TEMPS SUN IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S TO
WARM INTO THE MID TO UPR 80S MON...AND THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S ON
TUESDAY. EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S, BUT WILL
SIMILARLY WARM SLIGHTLY EACH MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE CONTINUES TO APPEAR TO BE DOMINATED WITH A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SE/MID ATLC STATES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LATEST ECMWF/GFS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH
THE GFS STILL A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE AT BREAKING DOWN/WEAKENING
THE RIDGE BY MID TO LATE WEEK (THOUGH NOT TO THE EXTENT IT HAD
BEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS). MODELS ALSO DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH
RESPECT TO 850 MB TEMPERATURES...THE ECMWF REMAINING WARMER BY
ABOUT 2-3 C THAN THE GFS. OVERALL...THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO WARM
/SUMMER-LIKE/ WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH VERY MINIMAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN...LIMITED TO ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY
LATE AFTN OR EVENING TSTMS DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
DRIFTING INTO THE REGION. WILL HAVE JUST 20% POP OVER JUST THE FAR
NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON WED...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THU/FRI (UP TO 30% FAR NW).
INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH TEMPS WARMING BACK TO THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS (GFS
HIGHS ONLY IN MID 80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS
PATTERN). CONDITIONS WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE
COAST. LOWS AVG IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO SAG SWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AS OF 23/0500Z AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SSEWD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...CROSSING ALL TERMINALS. ANY GUSTINESS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE LIMITED TO KORF...WHERE NORTH
WINDS OFF CHES BAY WILL OCCUR CLOSER TO DAYBREAK (OR BTWN
23/0900-1100Z). OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
BY THIS AFTN AND REMAINS INVOF THE COAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND REMAINING ANCHORED OFF THE COAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...SCA FLAGS DROPPED FOR ALL OF CHES BAY.

A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE AND WILL STALL AS HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH AND SLIDES OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS ON THE BAY THIS MORNING ARE AROUND 10 TO 15 KT AND WAVES
AROUND 2 FT. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS WINDS
GRUADUALLY BECOME EAST.

THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS QUICKLY BEHIND THE WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON...THEREFORE EXPECT WINDS TO
DECREASE BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH BUILDS
OVERHEAD. WINDS SHIFT TO THE S-SE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. WINDS SHOULD THEN FOLLOW A DIURNAL
PATTERN...INCREASING A BIT MAINLY IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING/EARLY
AM HRS LATE SUN THROUGH MID WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS WITH
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST. OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN SUB- SCA ALTHOUGH SLY WINDS MAY GUST TO NEAR 20KT
IN THE BAY DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED DIURNAL SURGES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD/JAO



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 231516
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1116 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY...BEFORE SLIDING
OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT AND REMAINING JUST OFF THE COAST THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRS MOVES ACROSS THE FA THIS AFTRN. A PLEASANT DAY WITH
N-NE WINDS GRDLLY BECOME E-SE. MSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS SCT-BKN CI
SPILLS EAST OF MTS. HIGHS IN THE L-M70S ALONG WITH COMFY HUMIDITY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/LOWER
MID- ATLANTIC COAST AS SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT.
RESULTANT LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO THE SSE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A MODEST INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS OVERNIGHT, BUT WITH
MOSTLY CLR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS, EXPECT A COOL NIGHT. LOOK FOR
EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE U40S TO LOW 50S INLAND TO MID 50S SE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK TO BE
CHARACTERIZED BY GRADUAL WARMING TREND ON SLY FLOW WITH THE SFC
HIGH ORIENTED OFFSHORE AND AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING ACROSS
THE ERN SEABOARD. SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE WILL
ONCE AGAIN SERVE TO KEEP POPS AT A MINIMUM...AND THUS HAVE KEPT
THE FORECAST DRY DESPITE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. LOOK FOR HI TEMPS SUN IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S TO
WARM INTO THE MID TO UPR 80S MON...AND THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S ON
TUESDAY. EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S, BUT WILL
SIMILARLY WARM SLIGHTLY EACH MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE CONTINUES TO APPEAR TO BE DOMINATED WITH A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SE/MID ATLC STATES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LATEST ECMWF/GFS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH
THE GFS STILL A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE AT BREAKING DOWN/WEAKENING
THE RIDGE BY MID TO LATE WEEK (THOUGH NOT TO THE EXTENT IT HAD
BEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS). MODELS ALSO DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH
RESPECT TO 850 MB TEMPERATURES...THE ECMWF REMAINING WARMER BY
ABOUT 2-3 C THAN THE GFS. OVERALL...THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO WARM
/SUMMER-LIKE/ WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH VERY MINIMAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN...LIMITED TO ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY
LATE AFTN OR EVENING TSTMS DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
DRIFTING INTO THE REGION. WILL HAVE JUST 20% POP OVER JUST THE FAR
NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON WED...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THU/FRI (UP TO 30% FAR NW).
INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH TEMPS WARMING BACK TO THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS (GFS
HIGHS ONLY IN MID 80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS
PATTERN). CONDITIONS WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE
COAST. LOWS AVG IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO SAG SWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AS OF 23/0500Z AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SSEWD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...CROSSING ALL TERMINALS. ANY GUSTINESS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE LIMITED TO KORF...WHERE NORTH
WINDS OFF CHES BAY WILL OCCUR CLOSER TO DAYBREAK (OR BTWN
23/0900-1100Z). OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
BY THIS AFTN AND REMAINS INVOF THE COAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND REMAINING ANCHORED OFF THE COAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...SCA FLAGS DROPPED FOR ALL OF CHES BAY.

A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE AND WILL STALL AS HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH AND SLIDES OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS ON THE BAY THIS MORNING ARE AROUND 10 TO 15 KT AND WAVES
AROUND 2 FT. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS WINDS
GRUADUALLY BECOME EAST.

THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS QUICKLY BEHIND THE WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON...THEREFORE EXPECT WINDS TO
DECREASE BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH BUILDS
OVERHEAD. WINDS SHIFT TO THE S-SE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. WINDS SHOULD THEN FOLLOW A DIURNAL
PATTERN...INCREASING A BIT MAINLY IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING/EARLY
AM HRS LATE SUN THROUGH MID WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS WITH
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST. OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN SUB- SCA ALTHOUGH SLY WINDS MAY GUST TO NEAR 20KT
IN THE BAY DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED DIURNAL SURGES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD/JAO




000
FXUS61 KLWX 231427
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1027 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVERHEAD TODAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST SUNDAY AND IT WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR NEXT
WEEK...MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE JULY INSTEAD OF LATE MAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE HAVE MOSTLY DIMINISHED.

UNSEASONABLY COOL EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES ARE REBOUNDING
QUICKLY THANKS TO SUNSHINE AND LOW HUMIDITY. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE
INFLITRATING FROM THE WEST AND ADJUSTED SKY COVER TODAY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY TO COMPENSATE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE
UPPER 60S TO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DIP BACK INTO THE 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT 50S OVER THE
WASHINGTON DC AND BALTIMORE METRO AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
WHILE A 500MB UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO THE MIDDLE 80S AREA WIDE. THE
FORECAST IS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER
COMPARED TO RECENT NIGHTS DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...RANGING FROM
THE MID AND UPPER 50S IN PORTIONS OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND
SHENANDOAH VALLEY TO THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON
AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN MONDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN EXTENDED FROM THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE POSSIBLY WEAKENING A BIT THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

A SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH AND SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS DURING
THIS TIME...MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE OF JULY AS OPPOSED
TO LATE MAY. THE HOTTEST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WHERE MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH
DAY. COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE MOST EXTENSIVE LATE IN THE
WEEK AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE POSSIBLY WEAKENS A BIT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC. BREEZY
WINDS FROM EARLIER HAVE DIMINISHED AS THE HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW
PASSING DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY ON
SUNDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO OUR EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED MOST OF THE
TIME...BUT THERE WILL BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AROUND DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS NEAR THE WESTERN TERMINALS
TUESDAY...AND PERHAPS FARTHER EAST ACROSS ALL OF THE TERMINALS
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY WITH THE HIGH
PASSING OVER THE AREA AT PRESENT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON
SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL BECOME TO SOUTHERLY. GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE BAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING
THIS TIME. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME...BUT IT WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO THE
RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM/BJL
NEAR TERM...RCM/KRW
SHORT TERM...BJL/KRW
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/RCM/KRW
MARINE...BJL/RCM/KRW



000
FXUS61 KLWX 231427
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1027 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVERHEAD TODAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST SUNDAY AND IT WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR NEXT
WEEK...MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE JULY INSTEAD OF LATE MAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE HAVE MOSTLY DIMINISHED.

UNSEASONABLY COOL EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES ARE REBOUNDING
QUICKLY THANKS TO SUNSHINE AND LOW HUMIDITY. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE
INFLITRATING FROM THE WEST AND ADJUSTED SKY COVER TODAY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY TO COMPENSATE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE
UPPER 60S TO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DIP BACK INTO THE 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT 50S OVER THE
WASHINGTON DC AND BALTIMORE METRO AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
WHILE A 500MB UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO THE MIDDLE 80S AREA WIDE. THE
FORECAST IS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER
COMPARED TO RECENT NIGHTS DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...RANGING FROM
THE MID AND UPPER 50S IN PORTIONS OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND
SHENANDOAH VALLEY TO THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON
AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN MONDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN EXTENDED FROM THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE POSSIBLY WEAKENING A BIT THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

A SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH AND SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS DURING
THIS TIME...MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE OF JULY AS OPPOSED
TO LATE MAY. THE HOTTEST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WHERE MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH
DAY. COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE MOST EXTENSIVE LATE IN THE
WEEK AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE POSSIBLY WEAKENS A BIT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC. BREEZY
WINDS FROM EARLIER HAVE DIMINISHED AS THE HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW
PASSING DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY ON
SUNDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO OUR EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED MOST OF THE
TIME...BUT THERE WILL BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AROUND DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS NEAR THE WESTERN TERMINALS
TUESDAY...AND PERHAPS FARTHER EAST ACROSS ALL OF THE TERMINALS
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY WITH THE HIGH
PASSING OVER THE AREA AT PRESENT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON
SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL BECOME TO SOUTHERLY. GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE BAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING
THIS TIME. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME...BUT IT WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO THE
RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM/BJL
NEAR TERM...RCM/KRW
SHORT TERM...BJL/KRW
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/RCM/KRW
MARINE...BJL/RCM/KRW



000
FXUS61 KLWX 231427
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1027 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVERHEAD TODAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST SUNDAY AND IT WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR NEXT
WEEK...MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE JULY INSTEAD OF LATE MAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE HAVE MOSTLY DIMINISHED.

UNSEASONABLY COOL EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES ARE REBOUNDING
QUICKLY THANKS TO SUNSHINE AND LOW HUMIDITY. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE
INFLITRATING FROM THE WEST AND ADJUSTED SKY COVER TODAY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY TO COMPENSATE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE
UPPER 60S TO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DIP BACK INTO THE 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT 50S OVER THE
WASHINGTON DC AND BALTIMORE METRO AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
WHILE A 500MB UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO THE MIDDLE 80S AREA WIDE. THE
FORECAST IS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER
COMPARED TO RECENT NIGHTS DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...RANGING FROM
THE MID AND UPPER 50S IN PORTIONS OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND
SHENANDOAH VALLEY TO THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON
AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN MONDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN EXTENDED FROM THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE POSSIBLY WEAKENING A BIT THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

A SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH AND SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS DURING
THIS TIME...MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE OF JULY AS OPPOSED
TO LATE MAY. THE HOTTEST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WHERE MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH
DAY. COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE MOST EXTENSIVE LATE IN THE
WEEK AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE POSSIBLY WEAKENS A BIT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC. BREEZY
WINDS FROM EARLIER HAVE DIMINISHED AS THE HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW
PASSING DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY ON
SUNDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO OUR EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED MOST OF THE
TIME...BUT THERE WILL BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AROUND DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS NEAR THE WESTERN TERMINALS
TUESDAY...AND PERHAPS FARTHER EAST ACROSS ALL OF THE TERMINALS
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY WITH THE HIGH
PASSING OVER THE AREA AT PRESENT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON
SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL BECOME TO SOUTHERLY. GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE BAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING
THIS TIME. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME...BUT IT WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO THE
RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM/BJL
NEAR TERM...RCM/KRW
SHORT TERM...BJL/KRW
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/RCM/KRW
MARINE...BJL/RCM/KRW



000
FXUS61 KLWX 231427
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1027 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVERHEAD TODAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST SUNDAY AND IT WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR NEXT
WEEK...MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE JULY INSTEAD OF LATE MAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE HAVE MOSTLY DIMINISHED.

UNSEASONABLY COOL EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES ARE REBOUNDING
QUICKLY THANKS TO SUNSHINE AND LOW HUMIDITY. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE
INFLITRATING FROM THE WEST AND ADJUSTED SKY COVER TODAY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY TO COMPENSATE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE
UPPER 60S TO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DIP BACK INTO THE 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT 50S OVER THE
WASHINGTON DC AND BALTIMORE METRO AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
WHILE A 500MB UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO THE MIDDLE 80S AREA WIDE. THE
FORECAST IS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER
COMPARED TO RECENT NIGHTS DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...RANGING FROM
THE MID AND UPPER 50S IN PORTIONS OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND
SHENANDOAH VALLEY TO THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON
AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN MONDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN EXTENDED FROM THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE POSSIBLY WEAKENING A BIT THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

A SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH AND SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS DURING
THIS TIME...MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE OF JULY AS OPPOSED
TO LATE MAY. THE HOTTEST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WHERE MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH
DAY. COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE MOST EXTENSIVE LATE IN THE
WEEK AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE POSSIBLY WEAKENS A BIT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC. BREEZY
WINDS FROM EARLIER HAVE DIMINISHED AS THE HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW
PASSING DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY ON
SUNDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO OUR EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED MOST OF THE
TIME...BUT THERE WILL BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AROUND DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS NEAR THE WESTERN TERMINALS
TUESDAY...AND PERHAPS FARTHER EAST ACROSS ALL OF THE TERMINALS
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY WITH THE HIGH
PASSING OVER THE AREA AT PRESENT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON
SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL BECOME TO SOUTHERLY. GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE BAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING
THIS TIME. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME...BUT IT WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO THE
RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM/BJL
NEAR TERM...RCM/KRW
SHORT TERM...BJL/KRW
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/RCM/KRW
MARINE...BJL/RCM/KRW



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 231416
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1016 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY...BEFORE SLIDING
OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT AND REMAINING JUST OFF THE COAST THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY SFC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. 1028+ MB SFC HI PRES WILL THEN QUICKLY BUILD
OVER THE REGION, BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A DRY, PLEASANT START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE U60S LOWER EASTERN SHORE...WITH LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S ELSEWHERE UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/LOWER
MID- ATLANTIC COAST AS SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT.
RESULTANT LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO THE SSE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A MODEST INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS OVERNIGHT, BUT WITH
MOSTLY CLR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS, EXPECT A COOL NIGHT. LOOK FOR
EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE U40S TO LOW 50S INLAND TO MID 50S SE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK TO BE
CHARACTERIZED BY GRADUAL WARMING TREND ON SLY FLOW WITH THE SFC
HIGH ORIENTED OFFSHORE AND AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING ACROSS
THE ERN SEABOARD. SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE WILL
ONCE AGAIN SERVE TO KEEP POPS AT A MINIMUM...AND THUS HAVE KEPT
THE FORECAST DRY DESPITE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. LOOK FOR HI TEMPS SUN IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S TO
WARM INTO THE MID TO UPR 80S MON...AND THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S ON
TUESDAY. EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S, BUT WILL
SIMILARLY WARM SLIGHTLY EACH MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE CONTINUES TO APPEAR TO BE DOMINATED WITH A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SE/MID ATLC STATES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LATEST ECMWF/GFS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH
THE GFS STILL A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE AT BREAKING DOWN/WEAKENING
THE RIDGE BY MID TO LATE WEEK (THOUGH NOT TO THE EXTENT IT HAD
BEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS). MODELS ALSO DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH
RESPECT TO 850 MB TEMPERATURES...THE ECMWF REMAINING WARMER BY
ABOUT 2-3 C THAN THE GFS. OVERALL...THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO WARM
/SUMMER-LIKE/ WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH VERY MINIMAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN...LIMITED TO ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY
LATE AFTN OR EVENING TSTMS DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
DRIFTING INTO THE REGION. WILL HAVE JUST 20% POP OVER JUST THE FAR
NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON WED...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THU/FRI (UP TO 30% FAR NW).
INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH TEMPS WARMING BACK TO THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS (GFS
HIGHS ONLY IN MID 80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS
PATTERN). CONDITIONS WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE
COAST. LOWS AVG IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO SAG SWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AS OF 23/0500Z AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SSEWD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...CROSSING ALL TERMINALS. ANY GUSTINESS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE LIMITED TO KORF...WHERE NORTH
WINDS OFF CHES BAY WILL OCCUR CLOSER TO DAYBREAK (OR BTWN
23/0900-1100Z). OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
BY THIS AFTN AND REMAINS INVOF THE COAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND REMAINING ANCHORED OFF THE COAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...SCA FLAGS DROPPED FOR ALL OF CHES BAY.

A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE AND WILL STALL AS HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH AND SLIDES OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS ON THE BAY THIS MORNING ARE AROUND 10 TO 15 KT AND WAVES
AROUND 2 FT. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS WINDS
GRUADUALLY BECOME EAST.

THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS QUICKLY BEHIND THE WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON...THEREFORE EXPECT WINDS TO
DECREASE BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH BUILDS
OVERHEAD. WINDS SHIFT TO THE S-SE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. WINDS SHOULD THEN FOLLOW A DIURNAL
PATTERN...INCREASING A BIT MAINLY IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING/EARLY
AM HRS LATE SUN THROUGH MID WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS WITH
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST. OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN SUB- SCA ALTHOUGH SLY WINDS MAY GUST TO NEAR 20KT
IN THE BAY DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED DIURNAL SURGES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD/JAO



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 231416
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1016 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY...BEFORE SLIDING
OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT AND REMAINING JUST OFF THE COAST THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY SFC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. 1028+ MB SFC HI PRES WILL THEN QUICKLY BUILD
OVER THE REGION, BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A DRY, PLEASANT START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE U60S LOWER EASTERN SHORE...WITH LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S ELSEWHERE UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/LOWER
MID- ATLANTIC COAST AS SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT.
RESULTANT LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO THE SSE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A MODEST INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS OVERNIGHT, BUT WITH
MOSTLY CLR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS, EXPECT A COOL NIGHT. LOOK FOR
EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE U40S TO LOW 50S INLAND TO MID 50S SE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK TO BE
CHARACTERIZED BY GRADUAL WARMING TREND ON SLY FLOW WITH THE SFC
HIGH ORIENTED OFFSHORE AND AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING ACROSS
THE ERN SEABOARD. SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE WILL
ONCE AGAIN SERVE TO KEEP POPS AT A MINIMUM...AND THUS HAVE KEPT
THE FORECAST DRY DESPITE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. LOOK FOR HI TEMPS SUN IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S TO
WARM INTO THE MID TO UPR 80S MON...AND THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S ON
TUESDAY. EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S, BUT WILL
SIMILARLY WARM SLIGHTLY EACH MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE CONTINUES TO APPEAR TO BE DOMINATED WITH A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SE/MID ATLC STATES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LATEST ECMWF/GFS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH
THE GFS STILL A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE AT BREAKING DOWN/WEAKENING
THE RIDGE BY MID TO LATE WEEK (THOUGH NOT TO THE EXTENT IT HAD
BEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS). MODELS ALSO DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH
RESPECT TO 850 MB TEMPERATURES...THE ECMWF REMAINING WARMER BY
ABOUT 2-3 C THAN THE GFS. OVERALL...THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO WARM
/SUMMER-LIKE/ WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH VERY MINIMAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN...LIMITED TO ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY
LATE AFTN OR EVENING TSTMS DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
DRIFTING INTO THE REGION. WILL HAVE JUST 20% POP OVER JUST THE FAR
NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON WED...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THU/FRI (UP TO 30% FAR NW).
INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH TEMPS WARMING BACK TO THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS (GFS
HIGHS ONLY IN MID 80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS
PATTERN). CONDITIONS WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE
COAST. LOWS AVG IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO SAG SWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AS OF 23/0500Z AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SSEWD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...CROSSING ALL TERMINALS. ANY GUSTINESS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE LIMITED TO KORF...WHERE NORTH
WINDS OFF CHES BAY WILL OCCUR CLOSER TO DAYBREAK (OR BTWN
23/0900-1100Z). OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
BY THIS AFTN AND REMAINS INVOF THE COAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND REMAINING ANCHORED OFF THE COAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...SCA FLAGS DROPPED FOR ALL OF CHES BAY.

A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE AND WILL STALL AS HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH AND SLIDES OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS ON THE BAY THIS MORNING ARE AROUND 10 TO 15 KT AND WAVES
AROUND 2 FT. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS WINDS
GRUADUALLY BECOME EAST.

THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS QUICKLY BEHIND THE WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON...THEREFORE EXPECT WINDS TO
DECREASE BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH BUILDS
OVERHEAD. WINDS SHIFT TO THE S-SE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. WINDS SHOULD THEN FOLLOW A DIURNAL
PATTERN...INCREASING A BIT MAINLY IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING/EARLY
AM HRS LATE SUN THROUGH MID WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS WITH
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST. OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN SUB- SCA ALTHOUGH SLY WINDS MAY GUST TO NEAR 20KT
IN THE BAY DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED DIURNAL SURGES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD/JAO




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 231416
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1016 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY...BEFORE SLIDING
OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT AND REMAINING JUST OFF THE COAST THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY SFC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. 1028+ MB SFC HI PRES WILL THEN QUICKLY BUILD
OVER THE REGION, BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A DRY, PLEASANT START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE U60S LOWER EASTERN SHORE...WITH LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S ELSEWHERE UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/LOWER
MID- ATLANTIC COAST AS SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT.
RESULTANT LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO THE SSE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A MODEST INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS OVERNIGHT, BUT WITH
MOSTLY CLR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS, EXPECT A COOL NIGHT. LOOK FOR
EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE U40S TO LOW 50S INLAND TO MID 50S SE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK TO BE
CHARACTERIZED BY GRADUAL WARMING TREND ON SLY FLOW WITH THE SFC
HIGH ORIENTED OFFSHORE AND AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING ACROSS
THE ERN SEABOARD. SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE WILL
ONCE AGAIN SERVE TO KEEP POPS AT A MINIMUM...AND THUS HAVE KEPT
THE FORECAST DRY DESPITE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. LOOK FOR HI TEMPS SUN IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S TO
WARM INTO THE MID TO UPR 80S MON...AND THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S ON
TUESDAY. EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S, BUT WILL
SIMILARLY WARM SLIGHTLY EACH MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE CONTINUES TO APPEAR TO BE DOMINATED WITH A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SE/MID ATLC STATES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LATEST ECMWF/GFS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH
THE GFS STILL A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE AT BREAKING DOWN/WEAKENING
THE RIDGE BY MID TO LATE WEEK (THOUGH NOT TO THE EXTENT IT HAD
BEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS). MODELS ALSO DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH
RESPECT TO 850 MB TEMPERATURES...THE ECMWF REMAINING WARMER BY
ABOUT 2-3 C THAN THE GFS. OVERALL...THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO WARM
/SUMMER-LIKE/ WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH VERY MINIMAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN...LIMITED TO ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY
LATE AFTN OR EVENING TSTMS DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
DRIFTING INTO THE REGION. WILL HAVE JUST 20% POP OVER JUST THE FAR
NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON WED...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THU/FRI (UP TO 30% FAR NW).
INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH TEMPS WARMING BACK TO THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS (GFS
HIGHS ONLY IN MID 80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS
PATTERN). CONDITIONS WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE
COAST. LOWS AVG IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO SAG SWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AS OF 23/0500Z AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SSEWD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...CROSSING ALL TERMINALS. ANY GUSTINESS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE LIMITED TO KORF...WHERE NORTH
WINDS OFF CHES BAY WILL OCCUR CLOSER TO DAYBREAK (OR BTWN
23/0900-1100Z). OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
BY THIS AFTN AND REMAINS INVOF THE COAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND REMAINING ANCHORED OFF THE COAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...SCA FLAGS DROPPED FOR ALL OF CHES BAY.

A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE AND WILL STALL AS HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH AND SLIDES OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS ON THE BAY THIS MORNING ARE AROUND 10 TO 15 KT AND WAVES
AROUND 2 FT. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS WINDS
GRUADUALLY BECOME EAST.

THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS QUICKLY BEHIND THE WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON...THEREFORE EXPECT WINDS TO
DECREASE BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH BUILDS
OVERHEAD. WINDS SHIFT TO THE S-SE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. WINDS SHOULD THEN FOLLOW A DIURNAL
PATTERN...INCREASING A BIT MAINLY IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING/EARLY
AM HRS LATE SUN THROUGH MID WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS WITH
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST. OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN SUB- SCA ALTHOUGH SLY WINDS MAY GUST TO NEAR 20KT
IN THE BAY DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED DIURNAL SURGES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD/JAO




000
FXUS61 KRNK 231354
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
954 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NO MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT OUR REGION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST STAYS
IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND WITH
HEAT AND HUMIDITY ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WITH JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A LATE DAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES FURTHER TO THE EAST...OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 953 AM EDT SATURDAY...

EARLY MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE FOR MOST OF THE REGION BUT SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE
STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST...AND BELIEVE THIS WILL BE THE CASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ALSO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE AROUND THE BLUE RIDGE TO FORM SOME HIGH
BASED CU DURING THE AFTERNOON. MORNING SOUNDINGS AND EXPECTED
WARMING ALOFT SUPPORT THE CURRENT HIGH TEMPS FORECAST OF GENERALLY
UPPER 60S/LOW 70S WEST OF THE RIDGE WITH LOW/MID 70S EAST.

PREVIOUS AFD...

THIS MIGHT BE THE LAST DAY WITH NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS DUE TO
THE BUILDING EAST COAST RIDGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
FORECAST PERIOD. LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY UPPER 40S TO MID-50S WHICH
IS VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...

CANT ARGUE WITH PREVIOUS SENTIMENTS EXPRESSED WITH REGARD TO THE
BARBECUE. NEARLY IDEAL WEATHER FOR LATE MAY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AMPLIFIES INTO A 590+ DM RIDGE
AND THE SURFACE HIGH OFF THE COAST ALSO BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY
WHILE MAINTAINING A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THIS WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
CONVECTION AND STORMINESS FROM WHERE IT HAS BEEN FOR SEVERAL WEEKS
NOW...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGHS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL CLIMB A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY AND BE ABOVE NORMAL BY
SUNDAY REACHING THE MID-80S EAST AND NEAR 80 WEST. CANT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO LOCAL TERRAIN CONVERGENCE EFFECTS AS MOISTURE
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. SYSTEM IS SLOWLY DRAWN EASTWARD. TUESDAY
WILL BE MUCH THE SAME BUT WITH A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION AGAIN MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT POPS ONLY
RISE INTO 30S FOR THE AFTERNOON...AGAIN DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE
AND DYNAMICS FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. EDGING SLOWLY EASTWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...

SUMMERLIKE PATTERN TO CLOSE OUT THE LAST WEEK OF MAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK...THE
ACTUAL SURFACE HIGH BECOMING ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS WILL PLACE OUR FORECAST AREA IN AN IN INCREASINGLY MUGGY
PATTERN WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S TO COMPLIMENT THE
UPWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S/NEAR 90.

THE WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEEP
CONVECTION.  FORCING WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY THEN AREAWIDE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
TRIES TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE WEEK APPEARS TO BE
LOW...DYNAMIC SUPPORT LACKING.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 735 AM EDT SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS BEING REPORTED AT ALL TAF SITES THIS MORNING AND
SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY TODAY. A FEW REMNANT CLOUDS FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION TO OUR WEST ARE EVIDENT ON THE IR SATELLITE VIEW BUT
THESE ARE WELL ABOVE 12K FEET AND NOT SHOWING IN ANY METAR
REPORTS. HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT SHOULD MAINTAIN VFR
CIGS/VSBYS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW MID- AND HIGH CLOUDS
AT TIMES AND NOT AFFECTING AVATION. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT
FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING BUT SHIFTING TO EAST AND THEN
SOUTHEAST AS THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH SHIFTS TO THE COAST BY
EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND THE HIGH
WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY
BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOUNTAIN AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY BY LATER TUESDAY...WHEN PERIODS OF
MVFR COULD OCCUR MAINLY BLUE RIDGE WEST. OTHERWISE...VFR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY OUTSIDE OF ANY LATE DAY CONVECTION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS/PC
SHORT TERM...DS/PC
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...PC/RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 231354
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
954 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NO MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT OUR REGION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST STAYS
IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND WITH
HEAT AND HUMIDITY ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WITH JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A LATE DAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES FURTHER TO THE EAST...OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 953 AM EDT SATURDAY...

EARLY MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE FOR MOST OF THE REGION BUT SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE
STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST...AND BELIEVE THIS WILL BE THE CASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ALSO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE AROUND THE BLUE RIDGE TO FORM SOME HIGH
BASED CU DURING THE AFTERNOON. MORNING SOUNDINGS AND EXPECTED
WARMING ALOFT SUPPORT THE CURRENT HIGH TEMPS FORECAST OF GENERALLY
UPPER 60S/LOW 70S WEST OF THE RIDGE WITH LOW/MID 70S EAST.

PREVIOUS AFD...

THIS MIGHT BE THE LAST DAY WITH NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS DUE TO
THE BUILDING EAST COAST RIDGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
FORECAST PERIOD. LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY UPPER 40S TO MID-50S WHICH
IS VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...

CANT ARGUE WITH PREVIOUS SENTIMENTS EXPRESSED WITH REGARD TO THE
BARBECUE. NEARLY IDEAL WEATHER FOR LATE MAY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AMPLIFIES INTO A 590+ DM RIDGE
AND THE SURFACE HIGH OFF THE COAST ALSO BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY
WHILE MAINTAINING A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THIS WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
CONVECTION AND STORMINESS FROM WHERE IT HAS BEEN FOR SEVERAL WEEKS
NOW...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGHS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL CLIMB A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY AND BE ABOVE NORMAL BY
SUNDAY REACHING THE MID-80S EAST AND NEAR 80 WEST. CANT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO LOCAL TERRAIN CONVERGENCE EFFECTS AS MOISTURE
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. SYSTEM IS SLOWLY DRAWN EASTWARD. TUESDAY
WILL BE MUCH THE SAME BUT WITH A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION AGAIN MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT POPS ONLY
RISE INTO 30S FOR THE AFTERNOON...AGAIN DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE
AND DYNAMICS FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. EDGING SLOWLY EASTWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...

SUMMERLIKE PATTERN TO CLOSE OUT THE LAST WEEK OF MAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK...THE
ACTUAL SURFACE HIGH BECOMING ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS WILL PLACE OUR FORECAST AREA IN AN IN INCREASINGLY MUGGY
PATTERN WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S TO COMPLIMENT THE
UPWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S/NEAR 90.

THE WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEEP
CONVECTION.  FORCING WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY THEN AREAWIDE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
TRIES TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE WEEK APPEARS TO BE
LOW...DYNAMIC SUPPORT LACKING.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 735 AM EDT SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS BEING REPORTED AT ALL TAF SITES THIS MORNING AND
SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY TODAY. A FEW REMNANT CLOUDS FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION TO OUR WEST ARE EVIDENT ON THE IR SATELLITE VIEW BUT
THESE ARE WELL ABOVE 12K FEET AND NOT SHOWING IN ANY METAR
REPORTS. HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT SHOULD MAINTAIN VFR
CIGS/VSBYS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW MID- AND HIGH CLOUDS
AT TIMES AND NOT AFFECTING AVATION. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT
FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING BUT SHIFTING TO EAST AND THEN
SOUTHEAST AS THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH SHIFTS TO THE COAST BY
EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND THE HIGH
WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY
BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOUNTAIN AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY BY LATER TUESDAY...WHEN PERIODS OF
MVFR COULD OCCUR MAINLY BLUE RIDGE WEST. OTHERWISE...VFR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY OUTSIDE OF ANY LATE DAY CONVECTION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS/PC
SHORT TERM...DS/PC
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...PC/RAB



000
FXUS61 KLWX 231305
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
905 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TODAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST SUNDAY AND IT WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR NEXT
WEEK...MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE JULY INSTEAD OF LATE MAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE WILL SUBSIDE AROUND SUNRISE. THE FROST ADVISORY WAS
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 8AM FOR THE FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES NOW THAT
TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING.

UNSEASONABLY COOL EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE QUICKLY
BY AFTERNOON. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL BOOST HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO
THE UPPER 60S TO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DIP BACK INTO THE 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT 50S OVER THE
WASHINGTON DC AND BALTIMORE METRO AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
WHILE A 500MB UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO THE MIDDLE 80S AREA WIDE. THE
FORECAST IS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER
COMPARED TO RECENT NIGHTS DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...RANGING FROM
THE MID AND UPPER 50S IN PORTIONS OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND
SHENANDOAH VALLEY TO THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON
AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN MONDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN EXTENDED FROM THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE POSSIBLY WEAKENING A BIT THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

A SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH AND SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS DURING
THIS TIME...MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE OF JULY AS OPPOSED
TO LATE MAY. THE HOTTEST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WHERE MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH
DAY. COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE MOST EXTENSIVE LATE IN THE
WEEK AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE POSSIBLY WEAKENS A BIT.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC.
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY ON SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING
THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME...BUT
THERE WILL BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AROUND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS NEAR THE WESTERN TERMINALS TUESDAY...AND PERHAPS
FARTHER EAST ACROSS ALL OF THE TERMINALS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE SUBSIDING BELOW SCA LEVELS AND THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS AND
CAUSE THE WINDS TO RELAX FURTHER DURING THE REMAINDER OF TODAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL SWITCH TO
SOUTHERLY. GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE BAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING
THIS TIME. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME...BUT IT WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO THE
RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...RCM/KRW
SHORT TERM...BJL/KRW
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/KRW
MARINE...BJL/KRW



000
FXUS61 KLWX 231305
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
905 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TODAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST SUNDAY AND IT WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR NEXT
WEEK...MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE JULY INSTEAD OF LATE MAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE WILL SUBSIDE AROUND SUNRISE. THE FROST ADVISORY WAS
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 8AM FOR THE FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES NOW THAT
TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING.

UNSEASONABLY COOL EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE QUICKLY
BY AFTERNOON. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL BOOST HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO
THE UPPER 60S TO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DIP BACK INTO THE 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT 50S OVER THE
WASHINGTON DC AND BALTIMORE METRO AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
WHILE A 500MB UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO THE MIDDLE 80S AREA WIDE. THE
FORECAST IS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER
COMPARED TO RECENT NIGHTS DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...RANGING FROM
THE MID AND UPPER 50S IN PORTIONS OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND
SHENANDOAH VALLEY TO THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON
AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN MONDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN EXTENDED FROM THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE POSSIBLY WEAKENING A BIT THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

A SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH AND SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS DURING
THIS TIME...MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE OF JULY AS OPPOSED
TO LATE MAY. THE HOTTEST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WHERE MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH
DAY. COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE MOST EXTENSIVE LATE IN THE
WEEK AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE POSSIBLY WEAKENS A BIT.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC.
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY ON SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING
THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME...BUT
THERE WILL BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AROUND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS NEAR THE WESTERN TERMINALS TUESDAY...AND PERHAPS
FARTHER EAST ACROSS ALL OF THE TERMINALS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE SUBSIDING BELOW SCA LEVELS AND THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS AND
CAUSE THE WINDS TO RELAX FURTHER DURING THE REMAINDER OF TODAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL SWITCH TO
SOUTHERLY. GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE BAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING
THIS TIME. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME...BUT IT WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO THE
RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...RCM/KRW
SHORT TERM...BJL/KRW
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/KRW
MARINE...BJL/KRW



000
FXUS61 KLWX 231305
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
905 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TODAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST SUNDAY AND IT WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR NEXT
WEEK...MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE JULY INSTEAD OF LATE MAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE WILL SUBSIDE AROUND SUNRISE. THE FROST ADVISORY WAS
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 8AM FOR THE FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES NOW THAT
TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING.

UNSEASONABLY COOL EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE QUICKLY
BY AFTERNOON. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL BOOST HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO
THE UPPER 60S TO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DIP BACK INTO THE 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT 50S OVER THE
WASHINGTON DC AND BALTIMORE METRO AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
WHILE A 500MB UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO THE MIDDLE 80S AREA WIDE. THE
FORECAST IS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER
COMPARED TO RECENT NIGHTS DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...RANGING FROM
THE MID AND UPPER 50S IN PORTIONS OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND
SHENANDOAH VALLEY TO THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON
AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN MONDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN EXTENDED FROM THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE POSSIBLY WEAKENING A BIT THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

A SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH AND SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS DURING
THIS TIME...MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE OF JULY AS OPPOSED
TO LATE MAY. THE HOTTEST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WHERE MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH
DAY. COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE MOST EXTENSIVE LATE IN THE
WEEK AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE POSSIBLY WEAKENS A BIT.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC.
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY ON SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING
THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME...BUT
THERE WILL BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AROUND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS NEAR THE WESTERN TERMINALS TUESDAY...AND PERHAPS
FARTHER EAST ACROSS ALL OF THE TERMINALS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE SUBSIDING BELOW SCA LEVELS AND THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS AND
CAUSE THE WINDS TO RELAX FURTHER DURING THE REMAINDER OF TODAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL SWITCH TO
SOUTHERLY. GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE BAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING
THIS TIME. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME...BUT IT WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO THE
RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...RCM/KRW
SHORT TERM...BJL/KRW
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/KRW
MARINE...BJL/KRW




000
FXUS61 KLWX 231305
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
905 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TODAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST SUNDAY AND IT WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR NEXT
WEEK...MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE JULY INSTEAD OF LATE MAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE WILL SUBSIDE AROUND SUNRISE. THE FROST ADVISORY WAS
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 8AM FOR THE FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES NOW THAT
TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING.

UNSEASONABLY COOL EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE QUICKLY
BY AFTERNOON. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL BOOST HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO
THE UPPER 60S TO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DIP BACK INTO THE 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT 50S OVER THE
WASHINGTON DC AND BALTIMORE METRO AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
WHILE A 500MB UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO THE MIDDLE 80S AREA WIDE. THE
FORECAST IS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER
COMPARED TO RECENT NIGHTS DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...RANGING FROM
THE MID AND UPPER 50S IN PORTIONS OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND
SHENANDOAH VALLEY TO THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON
AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN MONDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN EXTENDED FROM THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE POSSIBLY WEAKENING A BIT THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

A SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH AND SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS DURING
THIS TIME...MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE OF JULY AS OPPOSED
TO LATE MAY. THE HOTTEST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WHERE MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH
DAY. COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE MOST EXTENSIVE LATE IN THE
WEEK AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE POSSIBLY WEAKENS A BIT.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC.
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY ON SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING
THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME...BUT
THERE WILL BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AROUND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS NEAR THE WESTERN TERMINALS TUESDAY...AND PERHAPS
FARTHER EAST ACROSS ALL OF THE TERMINALS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE SUBSIDING BELOW SCA LEVELS AND THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS AND
CAUSE THE WINDS TO RELAX FURTHER DURING THE REMAINDER OF TODAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL SWITCH TO
SOUTHERLY. GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE BAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING
THIS TIME. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME...BUT IT WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO THE
RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...RCM/KRW
SHORT TERM...BJL/KRW
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/KRW
MARINE...BJL/KRW




000
FXUS61 KLWX 231200
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
800 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TODAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST SUNDAY AND IT WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR NEXT
WEEK...MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE JULY INSTEAD OF LATE MAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE WILL SUBSIDE AROUND SUNRISE. THE FROST ADVISORY WAS
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 8AM FOR THE FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES NOW THAT
TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING.

UNSEASONABLY COOL EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE QUICKLY
BY AFTERNOON. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL BOOST HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO
THE UPPER 60S TO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DIP BACK INTO THE 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT 50S OVER THE
WASHINGTON DC AND BALTIMORE METRO AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
WHILE A 500MB UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO THE MIDDLE 80S AREA WIDE. THE
FORECAST IS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER
COMPARED TO RECENT NIGHTS DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...RANGING FROM
THE MID AND UPPER 50S IN PORTIONS OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND
SHENANDOAH VALLEY TO THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON
AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN MONDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN EXTENDED FROM THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE POSSIBLY WEAKENING A BIT THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

A SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH AND SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS DURING
THIS TIME...MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE OF JULY AS OPPOSED
TO LATE MAY. THE HOTTEST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WHERE MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH
DAY. COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE MOST EXTENSIVE LATE IN THE
WEEK AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE POSSIBLY WEAKENS A BIT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC.
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY ON SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING
THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME...BUT
THERE WILL BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AROUND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS NEAR THE WESTERN TERMINALS TUESDAY...AND PERHAPS
FARTHER EAST ACROSS ALL OF THE TERMINALS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...UNTIL
AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
WATERS AND CAUSE THE WINDS TO RELAX TODAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL SWITCH TO SOUTHERLY. GUSTS AROUND
15 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE BAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING
THIS TIME. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME...BUT IT WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO THE
RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS
MORNING FOR ANZ531>537-539>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...RCM/KRW
SHORT TERM...BJL/KRW
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/KRW
MARINE...BJL/KRW



000
FXUS61 KLWX 231200
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
800 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TODAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST SUNDAY AND IT WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR NEXT
WEEK...MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE JULY INSTEAD OF LATE MAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE WILL SUBSIDE AROUND SUNRISE. THE FROST ADVISORY WAS
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 8AM FOR THE FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES NOW THAT
TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING.

UNSEASONABLY COOL EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE QUICKLY
BY AFTERNOON. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL BOOST HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO
THE UPPER 60S TO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DIP BACK INTO THE 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT 50S OVER THE
WASHINGTON DC AND BALTIMORE METRO AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
WHILE A 500MB UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO THE MIDDLE 80S AREA WIDE. THE
FORECAST IS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER
COMPARED TO RECENT NIGHTS DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...RANGING FROM
THE MID AND UPPER 50S IN PORTIONS OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND
SHENANDOAH VALLEY TO THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON
AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN MONDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN EXTENDED FROM THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE POSSIBLY WEAKENING A BIT THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

A SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH AND SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS DURING
THIS TIME...MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE OF JULY AS OPPOSED
TO LATE MAY. THE HOTTEST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WHERE MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH
DAY. COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE MOST EXTENSIVE LATE IN THE
WEEK AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE POSSIBLY WEAKENS A BIT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC.
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY ON SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING
THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME...BUT
THERE WILL BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AROUND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS NEAR THE WESTERN TERMINALS TUESDAY...AND PERHAPS
FARTHER EAST ACROSS ALL OF THE TERMINALS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...UNTIL
AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
WATERS AND CAUSE THE WINDS TO RELAX TODAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL SWITCH TO SOUTHERLY. GUSTS AROUND
15 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE BAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING
THIS TIME. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME...BUT IT WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO THE
RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS
MORNING FOR ANZ531>537-539>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...RCM/KRW
SHORT TERM...BJL/KRW
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/KRW
MARINE...BJL/KRW




000
FXUS61 KLWX 231200
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
800 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TODAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST SUNDAY AND IT WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR NEXT
WEEK...MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE JULY INSTEAD OF LATE MAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE WILL SUBSIDE AROUND SUNRISE. THE FROST ADVISORY WAS
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 8AM FOR THE FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES NOW THAT
TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING.

UNSEASONABLY COOL EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE QUICKLY
BY AFTERNOON. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL BOOST HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO
THE UPPER 60S TO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DIP BACK INTO THE 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT 50S OVER THE
WASHINGTON DC AND BALTIMORE METRO AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
WHILE A 500MB UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO THE MIDDLE 80S AREA WIDE. THE
FORECAST IS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER
COMPARED TO RECENT NIGHTS DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...RANGING FROM
THE MID AND UPPER 50S IN PORTIONS OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND
SHENANDOAH VALLEY TO THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON
AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN MONDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN EXTENDED FROM THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE POSSIBLY WEAKENING A BIT THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

A SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH AND SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS DURING
THIS TIME...MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE OF JULY AS OPPOSED
TO LATE MAY. THE HOTTEST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WHERE MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH
DAY. COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE MOST EXTENSIVE LATE IN THE
WEEK AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE POSSIBLY WEAKENS A BIT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC.
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY ON SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING
THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME...BUT
THERE WILL BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AROUND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS NEAR THE WESTERN TERMINALS TUESDAY...AND PERHAPS
FARTHER EAST ACROSS ALL OF THE TERMINALS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...UNTIL
AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
WATERS AND CAUSE THE WINDS TO RELAX TODAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL SWITCH TO SOUTHERLY. GUSTS AROUND
15 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE BAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING
THIS TIME. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME...BUT IT WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO THE
RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS
MORNING FOR ANZ531>537-539>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...RCM/KRW
SHORT TERM...BJL/KRW
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/KRW
MARINE...BJL/KRW




000
FXUS61 KLWX 231200
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
800 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TODAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST SUNDAY AND IT WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR NEXT
WEEK...MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE JULY INSTEAD OF LATE MAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE WILL SUBSIDE AROUND SUNRISE. THE FROST ADVISORY WAS
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 8AM FOR THE FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES NOW THAT
TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING.

UNSEASONABLY COOL EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE QUICKLY
BY AFTERNOON. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL BOOST HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO
THE UPPER 60S TO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DIP BACK INTO THE 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT 50S OVER THE
WASHINGTON DC AND BALTIMORE METRO AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
WHILE A 500MB UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO THE MIDDLE 80S AREA WIDE. THE
FORECAST IS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER
COMPARED TO RECENT NIGHTS DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...RANGING FROM
THE MID AND UPPER 50S IN PORTIONS OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND
SHENANDOAH VALLEY TO THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON
AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN MONDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN EXTENDED FROM THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE POSSIBLY WEAKENING A BIT THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

A SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH AND SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS DURING
THIS TIME...MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE OF JULY AS OPPOSED
TO LATE MAY. THE HOTTEST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WHERE MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH
DAY. COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE MOST EXTENSIVE LATE IN THE
WEEK AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE POSSIBLY WEAKENS A BIT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC.
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY ON SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING
THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME...BUT
THERE WILL BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AROUND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS NEAR THE WESTERN TERMINALS TUESDAY...AND PERHAPS
FARTHER EAST ACROSS ALL OF THE TERMINALS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...UNTIL
AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
WATERS AND CAUSE THE WINDS TO RELAX TODAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL SWITCH TO SOUTHERLY. GUSTS AROUND
15 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE BAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING
THIS TIME. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME...BUT IT WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO THE
RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS
MORNING FOR ANZ531>537-539>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...RCM/KRW
SHORT TERM...BJL/KRW
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/KRW
MARINE...BJL/KRW



000
FXUS61 KRNK 231139
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
739 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NO MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT OUR REGION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST STAYS
IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND WITH
HEAT AND HUMIDITY ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WITH JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A LATE DAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES FURTHER TO THE EAST...OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...

1030 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS SHIFTING OUR WINDS FROM A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO
EASTERLY THEN SOUTHERLY BY EARLY SUNDAY. SHOULD ALLOW A SLIGHT
WARMUP FROM YESTERDAY BUT STILL CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW LATE
MAY CLIMO. MIGHT BE THE LAST DAY WITH NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
DUE TO THE BUILDING EAST COAST RIDGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
FORECAST PERIOD. LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY UPPER 40S TO MID-50S WHICH
IS VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...

CANT ARGUE WITH PREVIOUS SENTIMENTS EXPRESSED WITH REGARD TO THE
BARBECUE. NEARLY IDEAL WEATHER FOR LATE MAY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEEND. THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AMPLIFIES INTO A 590+ DM RIDGE
AND THE SURFACE HIGH OFF THE COAST ALSO BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY
WHILE MAINTAINING A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THIS WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
CONVECTION AND STORMINESS FROM WHERE IT HAS BEEN FOR SEVERAL WEEKS
NOW...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGHS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL CLIMB A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY AND BE ABOVE NORMAL BY
SUNDAY REACHING THE MID-80S EAST AND NEAR 80 WEST. CANT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO LOCAL TERRAIN CONVERGENCE EFFECTS AS MOISTURE
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. SYSTEM IS SLOWLY DRAWN EASTWARD. TUESDAY
WILL BE MUCH THE SAME BUT WITH A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION AGAIN MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT POPS ONLY
RISE INTO 30S FOR THE AFTERNOON...AGAIN DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE
AND DYNAMICS FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. EDGIING SLOWLY EASTWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...

SUMMERLIKE PATTERN TO CLOSE OUT THE LAST WEEK OF MAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK...THE
ACTUAL SURFACE HIGH BECOMING ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS WILL PLACE OUR FORECAST AREA IN AN IN INCREASINGLY MUGGY
PATTERN WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S TO COMPLIMENT THE
UPWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S/NEAR 90.

THE WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEEP
CONVECTION.  FORCING WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY THEN AREAWIDE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
TRIES TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE WEEK APPEARS TO BE
LOW...DYNAMIC SUPPORT LACKING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 735 AM EDT SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS BEING REPORTED AT ALL TAF SITES THIS MORNING AND
SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY TODAY. A FEW REMNANT CLOUDS FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION TO OUR WEST ARE EVIDENT ON THE IR SATELLITE VIEW BUT
THESE ARE WELL ABOVE 12K FEET AND NOT SHOWING IN ANY METAR
REPORTS. HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT SHOULD MAINTAIN VFR
CIGS/VSBYS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW MID- AND HIGH CLOUDS
AT TIMES AND NOT AFFECTING AVATION. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT
FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING BUT SHIFTING TO EAST AND THEN
SOUTHEAST AS THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH SHIFTS TO THE COAST BY
EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND THE HIGH
WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY
BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOUNTAIN AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY BY LATER TUESDAY...WHEN PERIODS OF
MVFR COULD OCCUR MAINLY BLUE RIDGE WEST. OTHERWISE...VFR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY OUTSIDE OF ANY LATE DAY CONVECTION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...PC
SHORT TERM...DS/PC
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...PC/RAB



000
FXUS61 KRNK 231139
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
739 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NO MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT OUR REGION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST STAYS
IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND WITH
HEAT AND HUMIDITY ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WITH JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A LATE DAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES FURTHER TO THE EAST...OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...

1030 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS SHIFTING OUR WINDS FROM A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO
EASTERLY THEN SOUTHERLY BY EARLY SUNDAY. SHOULD ALLOW A SLIGHT
WARMUP FROM YESTERDAY BUT STILL CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW LATE
MAY CLIMO. MIGHT BE THE LAST DAY WITH NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
DUE TO THE BUILDING EAST COAST RIDGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
FORECAST PERIOD. LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY UPPER 40S TO MID-50S WHICH
IS VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...

CANT ARGUE WITH PREVIOUS SENTIMENTS EXPRESSED WITH REGARD TO THE
BARBECUE. NEARLY IDEAL WEATHER FOR LATE MAY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEEND. THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AMPLIFIES INTO A 590+ DM RIDGE
AND THE SURFACE HIGH OFF THE COAST ALSO BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY
WHILE MAINTAINING A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THIS WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
CONVECTION AND STORMINESS FROM WHERE IT HAS BEEN FOR SEVERAL WEEKS
NOW...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGHS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL CLIMB A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY AND BE ABOVE NORMAL BY
SUNDAY REACHING THE MID-80S EAST AND NEAR 80 WEST. CANT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO LOCAL TERRAIN CONVERGENCE EFFECTS AS MOISTURE
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. SYSTEM IS SLOWLY DRAWN EASTWARD. TUESDAY
WILL BE MUCH THE SAME BUT WITH A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION AGAIN MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT POPS ONLY
RISE INTO 30S FOR THE AFTERNOON...AGAIN DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE
AND DYNAMICS FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. EDGIING SLOWLY EASTWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...

SUMMERLIKE PATTERN TO CLOSE OUT THE LAST WEEK OF MAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK...THE
ACTUAL SURFACE HIGH BECOMING ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS WILL PLACE OUR FORECAST AREA IN AN IN INCREASINGLY MUGGY
PATTERN WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S TO COMPLIMENT THE
UPWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S/NEAR 90.

THE WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEEP
CONVECTION.  FORCING WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY THEN AREAWIDE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
TRIES TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE WEEK APPEARS TO BE
LOW...DYNAMIC SUPPORT LACKING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 735 AM EDT SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS BEING REPORTED AT ALL TAF SITES THIS MORNING AND
SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY TODAY. A FEW REMNANT CLOUDS FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION TO OUR WEST ARE EVIDENT ON THE IR SATELLITE VIEW BUT
THESE ARE WELL ABOVE 12K FEET AND NOT SHOWING IN ANY METAR
REPORTS. HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT SHOULD MAINTAIN VFR
CIGS/VSBYS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW MID- AND HIGH CLOUDS
AT TIMES AND NOT AFFECTING AVATION. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT
FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING BUT SHIFTING TO EAST AND THEN
SOUTHEAST AS THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH SHIFTS TO THE COAST BY
EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND THE HIGH
WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY
BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOUNTAIN AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY BY LATER TUESDAY...WHEN PERIODS OF
MVFR COULD OCCUR MAINLY BLUE RIDGE WEST. OTHERWISE...VFR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY OUTSIDE OF ANY LATE DAY CONVECTION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...PC
SHORT TERM...DS/PC
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...PC/RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 231139
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
739 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NO MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT OUR REGION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST STAYS
IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND WITH
HEAT AND HUMIDITY ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WITH JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A LATE DAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES FURTHER TO THE EAST...OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...

1030 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS SHIFTING OUR WINDS FROM A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO
EASTERLY THEN SOUTHERLY BY EARLY SUNDAY. SHOULD ALLOW A SLIGHT
WARMUP FROM YESTERDAY BUT STILL CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW LATE
MAY CLIMO. MIGHT BE THE LAST DAY WITH NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
DUE TO THE BUILDING EAST COAST RIDGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
FORECAST PERIOD. LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY UPPER 40S TO MID-50S WHICH
IS VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...

CANT ARGUE WITH PREVIOUS SENTIMENTS EXPRESSED WITH REGARD TO THE
BARBECUE. NEARLY IDEAL WEATHER FOR LATE MAY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEEND. THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AMPLIFIES INTO A 590+ DM RIDGE
AND THE SURFACE HIGH OFF THE COAST ALSO BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY
WHILE MAINTAINING A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THIS WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
CONVECTION AND STORMINESS FROM WHERE IT HAS BEEN FOR SEVERAL WEEKS
NOW...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGHS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL CLIMB A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY AND BE ABOVE NORMAL BY
SUNDAY REACHING THE MID-80S EAST AND NEAR 80 WEST. CANT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO LOCAL TERRAIN CONVERGENCE EFFECTS AS MOISTURE
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. SYSTEM IS SLOWLY DRAWN EASTWARD. TUESDAY
WILL BE MUCH THE SAME BUT WITH A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION AGAIN MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT POPS ONLY
RISE INTO 30S FOR THE AFTERNOON...AGAIN DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE
AND DYNAMICS FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. EDGIING SLOWLY EASTWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...

SUMMERLIKE PATTERN TO CLOSE OUT THE LAST WEEK OF MAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK...THE
ACTUAL SURFACE HIGH BECOMING ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS WILL PLACE OUR FORECAST AREA IN AN IN INCREASINGLY MUGGY
PATTERN WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S TO COMPLIMENT THE
UPWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S/NEAR 90.

THE WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEEP
CONVECTION.  FORCING WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY THEN AREAWIDE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
TRIES TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE WEEK APPEARS TO BE
LOW...DYNAMIC SUPPORT LACKING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 735 AM EDT SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS BEING REPORTED AT ALL TAF SITES THIS MORNING AND
SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY TODAY. A FEW REMNANT CLOUDS FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION TO OUR WEST ARE EVIDENT ON THE IR SATELLITE VIEW BUT
THESE ARE WELL ABOVE 12K FEET AND NOT SHOWING IN ANY METAR
REPORTS. HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT SHOULD MAINTAIN VFR
CIGS/VSBYS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW MID- AND HIGH CLOUDS
AT TIMES AND NOT AFFECTING AVATION. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT
FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING BUT SHIFTING TO EAST AND THEN
SOUTHEAST AS THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH SHIFTS TO THE COAST BY
EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND THE HIGH
WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY
BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOUNTAIN AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY BY LATER TUESDAY...WHEN PERIODS OF
MVFR COULD OCCUR MAINLY BLUE RIDGE WEST. OTHERWISE...VFR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY OUTSIDE OF ANY LATE DAY CONVECTION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...PC
SHORT TERM...DS/PC
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...PC/RAB



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 231104
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
704 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY...BEFORE SLIDING
OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT AND REMAINING JUST OFF THE COAST THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY SFC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. 1028+ MB SFC HI PRES WILL THEN QUICKLY BUILD
OVER THE REGION, BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A DRY, PLEASANT START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE U60S LOWER EASTERN SHORE...WITH LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S ELSEWHERE UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/LOWER
MID- ATLANTIC COAST AS SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT.
RESULTANT LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO THE SSE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A MODEST INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS OVERNIGHT, BUT WITH
MOSTLY CLR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS, EXPECT A COOL NIGHT. LOOK FOR
EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE U40S TO LOW 50S INLAND TO MID 50S SE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK TO BE
CHARACTERIZED BY GRADUAL WARMING TREND ON SLY FLOW WITH THE SFC
HIGH ORIENTED OFFSHORE AND AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING ACROSS
THE ERN SEABOARD. SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE WILL
ONCE AGAIN SERVE TO KEEP POPS AT A MINIMUM...AND THUS HAVE KEPT
THE FORECAST DRY DESPITE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. LOOK FOR HI TEMPS SUN IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S TO
WARM INTO THE MID TO UPR 80S MON...AND THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S ON
TUESDAY. EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S, BUT WILL
SIMILARLY WARM SLIGHTLY EACH MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE CONTINUES TO APPEAR TO BE DOMINATED WITH A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SE/MID ATLC STATES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LATEST ECMWF/GFS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH
THE GFS STILL A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE AT BREAKING DOWN/WEAKENING
THE RIDGE BY MID TO LATE WEEK (THOUGH NOT TO THE EXTENT IT HAD
BEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS). MODELS ALSO DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH
RESPECT TO 850 MB TEMPERATURES...THE ECMWF REMAINING WARMER BY
ABOUT 2-3 C THAN THE GFS. OVERALL...THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO WARM
/SUMMER-LIKE/ WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH VERY MINIMAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN...LIMITED TO ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY
LATE AFTN OR EVENING TSTMS DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
DRIFTING INTO THE REGION. WILL HAVE JUST 20% POP OVER JUST THE FAR
NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON WED...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THU/FRI (UP TO 30% FAR NW).
INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH TEMPS WARMING BACK TO THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS (GFS
HIGHS ONLY IN MID 80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS
PATTERN). CONDITIONS WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE
COAST. LOWS AVG IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO SAG SWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AS OF 23/0500Z AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SSEWD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...CROSSING ALL TERMINALS. ANY GUSTINESS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE LIMITED TO KORF...WHERE NORTH
WINDS OFF CHES BAY WILL OCCUR CLOSER TO DAYBREAK (OR BTWN
23/0900-1100Z). OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
BY THIS AFTN AND REMAINS INVOF THE COAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND REMAINING ANCHORED OFF THE COAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...SCA FLAGS DROPPED FOR CHES BAY NORTH OF NEW POINT
COMFORT. WIND GUSTS TO 20KT HAVE NOT MATERIALIZED BEHIND THE WEAK
COLD FRONT AND ARE STRUGGLING TO REACH 20KT IN SRN CHES BAY. WILL
HOLD ONTO SCA HEADLINES THROUGH 1000 AM BUT MAY NEED TO DROP
EARLY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS SAGGING SWD ACROSS THE
DELMARVA AND WILL DROP DOWN ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST MID
MORNING. THE NLY SURGE WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK TO 15-20KT...WITH A
FEW GUSTS UP TO 25KT POSSIBLE. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS ARE SLOW TO
INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS BUT HAVE MAINTAINED SCA FLAGS THROUGH 700
AM FOR CHES BAY NORTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT AND THROUGH 1000 AM FOR
SRN CHES BAY BELOW NEW POINT COMFORT. THE RIVERS MAY EXPERIENCE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND
20KT POSSIBLE. WAVES ON CHES BAY BUILD TO 3-4FT THROUGH THIS
MORNING AND THEN SUBSIDE TO 1- 2FT BY THIS AFTN. SEAS ON THE
COASTAL WATERS BUILD TO 3-4 FT THIS MORNING BUT QUICKLY SUBSIDE TO
2-3FT BY THIS AFTN.

THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS QUICKLY BEHIND THE WEAK FRONTAL
PASSAGE TODAY...THEREFORE EXPECT WINDS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY ONCE
AGAIN BY LATE MORNING AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD. WINDS SHIFT TO
THE S-SE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. WINDS
SHOULD THEN FOLLOW A DIURNAL PATTERN...INCREASING A BIT MAINLY IN
THE LATE AFTN/EVENING/EARLY AM HRS LATE SUN THROUGH MID WEEK AS AN
UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST.
OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SUB-SCA ALTHOUGH SLY WINDS
MAY GUST TO NEAR 20KT IN THE BAY DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED DIURNAL
SURGES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ632-
     634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 231104
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
704 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY...BEFORE SLIDING
OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT AND REMAINING JUST OFF THE COAST THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY SFC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. 1028+ MB SFC HI PRES WILL THEN QUICKLY BUILD
OVER THE REGION, BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A DRY, PLEASANT START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE U60S LOWER EASTERN SHORE...WITH LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S ELSEWHERE UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/LOWER
MID- ATLANTIC COAST AS SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT.
RESULTANT LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO THE SSE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A MODEST INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS OVERNIGHT, BUT WITH
MOSTLY CLR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS, EXPECT A COOL NIGHT. LOOK FOR
EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE U40S TO LOW 50S INLAND TO MID 50S SE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK TO BE
CHARACTERIZED BY GRADUAL WARMING TREND ON SLY FLOW WITH THE SFC
HIGH ORIENTED OFFSHORE AND AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING ACROSS
THE ERN SEABOARD. SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE WILL
ONCE AGAIN SERVE TO KEEP POPS AT A MINIMUM...AND THUS HAVE KEPT
THE FORECAST DRY DESPITE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. LOOK FOR HI TEMPS SUN IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S TO
WARM INTO THE MID TO UPR 80S MON...AND THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S ON
TUESDAY. EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S, BUT WILL
SIMILARLY WARM SLIGHTLY EACH MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE CONTINUES TO APPEAR TO BE DOMINATED WITH A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SE/MID ATLC STATES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LATEST ECMWF/GFS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH
THE GFS STILL A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE AT BREAKING DOWN/WEAKENING
THE RIDGE BY MID TO LATE WEEK (THOUGH NOT TO THE EXTENT IT HAD
BEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS). MODELS ALSO DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH
RESPECT TO 850 MB TEMPERATURES...THE ECMWF REMAINING WARMER BY
ABOUT 2-3 C THAN THE GFS. OVERALL...THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO WARM
/SUMMER-LIKE/ WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH VERY MINIMAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN...LIMITED TO ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY
LATE AFTN OR EVENING TSTMS DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
DRIFTING INTO THE REGION. WILL HAVE JUST 20% POP OVER JUST THE FAR
NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON WED...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THU/FRI (UP TO 30% FAR NW).
INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH TEMPS WARMING BACK TO THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS (GFS
HIGHS ONLY IN MID 80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS
PATTERN). CONDITIONS WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE
COAST. LOWS AVG IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO SAG SWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AS OF 23/0500Z AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SSEWD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...CROSSING ALL TERMINALS. ANY GUSTINESS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE LIMITED TO KORF...WHERE NORTH
WINDS OFF CHES BAY WILL OCCUR CLOSER TO DAYBREAK (OR BTWN
23/0900-1100Z). OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
BY THIS AFTN AND REMAINS INVOF THE COAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND REMAINING ANCHORED OFF THE COAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...SCA FLAGS DROPPED FOR CHES BAY NORTH OF NEW POINT
COMFORT. WIND GUSTS TO 20KT HAVE NOT MATERIALIZED BEHIND THE WEAK
COLD FRONT AND ARE STRUGGLING TO REACH 20KT IN SRN CHES BAY. WILL
HOLD ONTO SCA HEADLINES THROUGH 1000 AM BUT MAY NEED TO DROP
EARLY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS SAGGING SWD ACROSS THE
DELMARVA AND WILL DROP DOWN ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST MID
MORNING. THE NLY SURGE WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK TO 15-20KT...WITH A
FEW GUSTS UP TO 25KT POSSIBLE. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS ARE SLOW TO
INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS BUT HAVE MAINTAINED SCA FLAGS THROUGH 700
AM FOR CHES BAY NORTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT AND THROUGH 1000 AM FOR
SRN CHES BAY BELOW NEW POINT COMFORT. THE RIVERS MAY EXPERIENCE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND
20KT POSSIBLE. WAVES ON CHES BAY BUILD TO 3-4FT THROUGH THIS
MORNING AND THEN SUBSIDE TO 1- 2FT BY THIS AFTN. SEAS ON THE
COASTAL WATERS BUILD TO 3-4 FT THIS MORNING BUT QUICKLY SUBSIDE TO
2-3FT BY THIS AFTN.

THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS QUICKLY BEHIND THE WEAK FRONTAL
PASSAGE TODAY...THEREFORE EXPECT WINDS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY ONCE
AGAIN BY LATE MORNING AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD. WINDS SHIFT TO
THE S-SE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. WINDS
SHOULD THEN FOLLOW A DIURNAL PATTERN...INCREASING A BIT MAINLY IN
THE LATE AFTN/EVENING/EARLY AM HRS LATE SUN THROUGH MID WEEK AS AN
UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST.
OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SUB-SCA ALTHOUGH SLY WINDS
MAY GUST TO NEAR 20KT IN THE BAY DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED DIURNAL
SURGES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ632-
     634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 231104
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
704 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY...BEFORE SLIDING
OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT AND REMAINING JUST OFF THE COAST THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY SFC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. 1028+ MB SFC HI PRES WILL THEN QUICKLY BUILD
OVER THE REGION, BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A DRY, PLEASANT START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE U60S LOWER EASTERN SHORE...WITH LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S ELSEWHERE UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/LOWER
MID- ATLANTIC COAST AS SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT.
RESULTANT LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO THE SSE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A MODEST INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS OVERNIGHT, BUT WITH
MOSTLY CLR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS, EXPECT A COOL NIGHT. LOOK FOR
EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE U40S TO LOW 50S INLAND TO MID 50S SE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK TO BE
CHARACTERIZED BY GRADUAL WARMING TREND ON SLY FLOW WITH THE SFC
HIGH ORIENTED OFFSHORE AND AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING ACROSS
THE ERN SEABOARD. SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE WILL
ONCE AGAIN SERVE TO KEEP POPS AT A MINIMUM...AND THUS HAVE KEPT
THE FORECAST DRY DESPITE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. LOOK FOR HI TEMPS SUN IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S TO
WARM INTO THE MID TO UPR 80S MON...AND THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S ON
TUESDAY. EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S, BUT WILL
SIMILARLY WARM SLIGHTLY EACH MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE CONTINUES TO APPEAR TO BE DOMINATED WITH A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SE/MID ATLC STATES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LATEST ECMWF/GFS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH
THE GFS STILL A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE AT BREAKING DOWN/WEAKENING
THE RIDGE BY MID TO LATE WEEK (THOUGH NOT TO THE EXTENT IT HAD
BEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS). MODELS ALSO DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH
RESPECT TO 850 MB TEMPERATURES...THE ECMWF REMAINING WARMER BY
ABOUT 2-3 C THAN THE GFS. OVERALL...THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO WARM
/SUMMER-LIKE/ WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH VERY MINIMAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN...LIMITED TO ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY
LATE AFTN OR EVENING TSTMS DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
DRIFTING INTO THE REGION. WILL HAVE JUST 20% POP OVER JUST THE FAR
NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON WED...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THU/FRI (UP TO 30% FAR NW).
INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH TEMPS WARMING BACK TO THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS (GFS
HIGHS ONLY IN MID 80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS
PATTERN). CONDITIONS WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE
COAST. LOWS AVG IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO SAG SWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AS OF 23/0500Z AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SSEWD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...CROSSING ALL TERMINALS. ANY GUSTINESS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE LIMITED TO KORF...WHERE NORTH
WINDS OFF CHES BAY WILL OCCUR CLOSER TO DAYBREAK (OR BTWN
23/0900-1100Z). OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
BY THIS AFTN AND REMAINS INVOF THE COAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND REMAINING ANCHORED OFF THE COAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...SCA FLAGS DROPPED FOR CHES BAY NORTH OF NEW POINT
COMFORT. WIND GUSTS TO 20KT HAVE NOT MATERIALIZED BEHIND THE WEAK
COLD FRONT AND ARE STRUGGLING TO REACH 20KT IN SRN CHES BAY. WILL
HOLD ONTO SCA HEADLINES THROUGH 1000 AM BUT MAY NEED TO DROP
EARLY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS SAGGING SWD ACROSS THE
DELMARVA AND WILL DROP DOWN ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST MID
MORNING. THE NLY SURGE WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK TO 15-20KT...WITH A
FEW GUSTS UP TO 25KT POSSIBLE. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS ARE SLOW TO
INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS BUT HAVE MAINTAINED SCA FLAGS THROUGH 700
AM FOR CHES BAY NORTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT AND THROUGH 1000 AM FOR
SRN CHES BAY BELOW NEW POINT COMFORT. THE RIVERS MAY EXPERIENCE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND
20KT POSSIBLE. WAVES ON CHES BAY BUILD TO 3-4FT THROUGH THIS
MORNING AND THEN SUBSIDE TO 1- 2FT BY THIS AFTN. SEAS ON THE
COASTAL WATERS BUILD TO 3-4 FT THIS MORNING BUT QUICKLY SUBSIDE TO
2-3FT BY THIS AFTN.

THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS QUICKLY BEHIND THE WEAK FRONTAL
PASSAGE TODAY...THEREFORE EXPECT WINDS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY ONCE
AGAIN BY LATE MORNING AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD. WINDS SHIFT TO
THE S-SE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. WINDS
SHOULD THEN FOLLOW A DIURNAL PATTERN...INCREASING A BIT MAINLY IN
THE LATE AFTN/EVENING/EARLY AM HRS LATE SUN THROUGH MID WEEK AS AN
UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST.
OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SUB-SCA ALTHOUGH SLY WINDS
MAY GUST TO NEAR 20KT IN THE BAY DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED DIURNAL
SURGES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ632-
     634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD



000
FXUS61 KRNK 230748
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
348 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NO MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT OUR REGION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST STAYS
IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND WITH
HEAT AND HUMIDITY ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WITH JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A LATE DAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES FURTHER TO THE EAST...OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...

1030 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS SHIFTING OUR WINDS FROM A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO
EASTERLY THEN SOUTHERLY BY EARLY SUNDAY. SHOULD ALLOW A SLIGHT
WARMUP FROM YESTERDAY BUT STILL CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW LATE
MAY CLIMO. MIGHT BE THE LAST DAY WITH NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
DUE TO THE BUILDING EAST COAST RIDGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
FORECAST PERIOD. LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY UPPER 40S TO MID-50S WHICH
IS VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...

CANT ARGUE WITH PREVIOUS SENTIMENTS EXPRESSED WITH REGARD TO THE
BARBECUE. NEARLY IDEAL WEATHER FOR LATE MAY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEEND. THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AMPLIFIES INTO A 590+ DM RIDGE
AND THE SURFACE HIGH OFF THE COAST ALSO BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY
WHILE MAINTAINING A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THIS WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
CONVECTION AND STORMINESS FROM WHERE IT HAS BEEN FOR SEVERAL WEEKS
NOW...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGHS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL CLIMB A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY AND BE ABOVE NORMAL BY
SUNDAY REACHING THE MID-80S EAST AND NEAR 80 WEST. CANT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO LOCAL TERRAIN CONVERGENCE EFFECTS AS MOISTURE
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. SYSTEM IS SLOWLY DRAWN EASTWARD. TUESDAY
WILL BE MUCH THE SAME BUT WITH A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION AGAIN MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT POPS ONLY
RISE INTO 30S FOR THE AFTERNOON...AGAIN DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE
AND DYNAMICS FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. EDGIING SLOWLY EASTWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...

SUMMERLIKE PATTERN TO CLOSE OUT THE LAST WEEK OF MAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK...THE
ACTUAL SURFACE HIGH BECOMING ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS WILL PLACE OUR FORECAST AREA IN AN IN INCREASINGLY MUGGY
PATTERN WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S TO COMPLIMENT THE
UPWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S/NEAR 90.

THE WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEEP
CONVECTION.  FORCING WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY THEN AREAWIDE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
TRIES TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE WEEK APPEARS TO BE
LOW...DYNAMIC SUPPORT LACKING.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM EDT SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS BEING REPORTED AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING
AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT AND RIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. A FEW REMNANT CLOUDS FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH ARE EVIDENT ON THE IR SATELLITE VIEW BUT
THESE ARE WELL ABOVE 12K FEET AND NOT SHOWING IN ANY METAR
REPORTS.

MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFTOVER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA
SATURDAY AND MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE 050-070 RANGE COULD YIELD
SCT-BKN CLOUDS DURING DIURNAL HEATING...MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. OCCASIONAL SCT250 AS WELL FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
SPILLING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE JUST TO OUR WEST. THE AIR MASS IS
QUITE DRY...BUT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE RELATIVELY EFFECTIVE
TONIGHT...WHICH COULD YIELD SOME MVFR BR AT LWB/BCB IN THE 09Z-12Z
TIME FRAME...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
WINDS...NW 5-7KTS THROUGH 04Z...THEN VEERING THROUGH NE-SE DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST. SPEEDS
REMAINING MOSTLY 7KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MADAME TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND THE HIGH
WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY
BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOUNTAIN AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY BY LATER TUESDAY...WHEN PERIODS OF
MVFR COULD OCCUR MAINLY BLUE RIDGE WEST. OTHERWISE...VFR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY OUTSIDE OF ANY LATE DAY CONVECTION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...PC
SHORT TERM...DS/PC
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...RAB



000
FXUS61 KRNK 230748
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
348 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NO MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT OUR REGION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST STAYS
IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND WITH
HEAT AND HUMIDITY ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WITH JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A LATE DAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES FURTHER TO THE EAST...OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...

1030 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS SHIFTING OUR WINDS FROM A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO
EASTERLY THEN SOUTHERLY BY EARLY SUNDAY. SHOULD ALLOW A SLIGHT
WARMUP FROM YESTERDAY BUT STILL CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW LATE
MAY CLIMO. MIGHT BE THE LAST DAY WITH NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
DUE TO THE BUILDING EAST COAST RIDGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
FORECAST PERIOD. LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY UPPER 40S TO MID-50S WHICH
IS VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...

CANT ARGUE WITH PREVIOUS SENTIMENTS EXPRESSED WITH REGARD TO THE
BARBECUE. NEARLY IDEAL WEATHER FOR LATE MAY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEEND. THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AMPLIFIES INTO A 590+ DM RIDGE
AND THE SURFACE HIGH OFF THE COAST ALSO BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY
WHILE MAINTAINING A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THIS WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
CONVECTION AND STORMINESS FROM WHERE IT HAS BEEN FOR SEVERAL WEEKS
NOW...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGHS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL CLIMB A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY AND BE ABOVE NORMAL BY
SUNDAY REACHING THE MID-80S EAST AND NEAR 80 WEST. CANT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO LOCAL TERRAIN CONVERGENCE EFFECTS AS MOISTURE
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. SYSTEM IS SLOWLY DRAWN EASTWARD. TUESDAY
WILL BE MUCH THE SAME BUT WITH A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION AGAIN MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT POPS ONLY
RISE INTO 30S FOR THE AFTERNOON...AGAIN DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE
AND DYNAMICS FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. EDGIING SLOWLY EASTWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...

SUMMERLIKE PATTERN TO CLOSE OUT THE LAST WEEK OF MAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK...THE
ACTUAL SURFACE HIGH BECOMING ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS WILL PLACE OUR FORECAST AREA IN AN IN INCREASINGLY MUGGY
PATTERN WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S TO COMPLIMENT THE
UPWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S/NEAR 90.

THE WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEEP
CONVECTION.  FORCING WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY THEN AREAWIDE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
TRIES TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE WEEK APPEARS TO BE
LOW...DYNAMIC SUPPORT LACKING.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM EDT SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS BEING REPORTED AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING
AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT AND RIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. A FEW REMNANT CLOUDS FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH ARE EVIDENT ON THE IR SATELLITE VIEW BUT
THESE ARE WELL ABOVE 12K FEET AND NOT SHOWING IN ANY METAR
REPORTS.

MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFTOVER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA
SATURDAY AND MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE 050-070 RANGE COULD YIELD
SCT-BKN CLOUDS DURING DIURNAL HEATING...MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. OCCASIONAL SCT250 AS WELL FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
SPILLING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE JUST TO OUR WEST. THE AIR MASS IS
QUITE DRY...BUT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE RELATIVELY EFFECTIVE
TONIGHT...WHICH COULD YIELD SOME MVFR BR AT LWB/BCB IN THE 09Z-12Z
TIME FRAME...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
WINDS...NW 5-7KTS THROUGH 04Z...THEN VEERING THROUGH NE-SE DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST. SPEEDS
REMAINING MOSTLY 7KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MADAME TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND THE HIGH
WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY
BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOUNTAIN AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY BY LATER TUESDAY...WHEN PERIODS OF
MVFR COULD OCCUR MAINLY BLUE RIDGE WEST. OTHERWISE...VFR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY OUTSIDE OF ANY LATE DAY CONVECTION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...PC
SHORT TERM...DS/PC
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...RAB



000
FXUS61 KRNK 230748
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
348 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NO MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT OUR REGION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST STAYS
IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND WITH
HEAT AND HUMIDITY ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WITH JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A LATE DAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES FURTHER TO THE EAST...OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...

1030 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS SHIFTING OUR WINDS FROM A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO
EASTERLY THEN SOUTHERLY BY EARLY SUNDAY. SHOULD ALLOW A SLIGHT
WARMUP FROM YESTERDAY BUT STILL CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW LATE
MAY CLIMO. MIGHT BE THE LAST DAY WITH NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
DUE TO THE BUILDING EAST COAST RIDGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
FORECAST PERIOD. LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY UPPER 40S TO MID-50S WHICH
IS VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...

CANT ARGUE WITH PREVIOUS SENTIMENTS EXPRESSED WITH REGARD TO THE
BARBECUE. NEARLY IDEAL WEATHER FOR LATE MAY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEEND. THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AMPLIFIES INTO A 590+ DM RIDGE
AND THE SURFACE HIGH OFF THE COAST ALSO BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY
WHILE MAINTAINING A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THIS WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
CONVECTION AND STORMINESS FROM WHERE IT HAS BEEN FOR SEVERAL WEEKS
NOW...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGHS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL CLIMB A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY AND BE ABOVE NORMAL BY
SUNDAY REACHING THE MID-80S EAST AND NEAR 80 WEST. CANT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO LOCAL TERRAIN CONVERGENCE EFFECTS AS MOISTURE
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. SYSTEM IS SLOWLY DRAWN EASTWARD. TUESDAY
WILL BE MUCH THE SAME BUT WITH A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION AGAIN MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT POPS ONLY
RISE INTO 30S FOR THE AFTERNOON...AGAIN DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE
AND DYNAMICS FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. EDGIING SLOWLY EASTWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...

SUMMERLIKE PATTERN TO CLOSE OUT THE LAST WEEK OF MAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK...THE
ACTUAL SURFACE HIGH BECOMING ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS WILL PLACE OUR FORECAST AREA IN AN IN INCREASINGLY MUGGY
PATTERN WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S TO COMPLIMENT THE
UPWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S/NEAR 90.

THE WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEEP
CONVECTION.  FORCING WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY THEN AREAWIDE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
TRIES TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE WEEK APPEARS TO BE
LOW...DYNAMIC SUPPORT LACKING.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM EDT SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS BEING REPORTED AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING
AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT AND RIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. A FEW REMNANT CLOUDS FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH ARE EVIDENT ON THE IR SATELLITE VIEW BUT
THESE ARE WELL ABOVE 12K FEET AND NOT SHOWING IN ANY METAR
REPORTS.

MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFTOVER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA
SATURDAY AND MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE 050-070 RANGE COULD YIELD
SCT-BKN CLOUDS DURING DIURNAL HEATING...MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. OCCASIONAL SCT250 AS WELL FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
SPILLING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE JUST TO OUR WEST. THE AIR MASS IS
QUITE DRY...BUT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE RELATIVELY EFFECTIVE
TONIGHT...WHICH COULD YIELD SOME MVFR BR AT LWB/BCB IN THE 09Z-12Z
TIME FRAME...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
WINDS...NW 5-7KTS THROUGH 04Z...THEN VEERING THROUGH NE-SE DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST. SPEEDS
REMAINING MOSTLY 7KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MADAME TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND THE HIGH
WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY
BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOUNTAIN AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY BY LATER TUESDAY...WHEN PERIODS OF
MVFR COULD OCCUR MAINLY BLUE RIDGE WEST. OTHERWISE...VFR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY OUTSIDE OF ANY LATE DAY CONVECTION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...PC
SHORT TERM...DS/PC
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...RAB



000
FXUS61 KRNK 230748
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
348 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NO MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT OUR REGION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST STAYS
IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND WITH
HEAT AND HUMIDITY ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WITH JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A LATE DAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES FURTHER TO THE EAST...OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...

1030 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS SHIFTING OUR WINDS FROM A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO
EASTERLY THEN SOUTHERLY BY EARLY SUNDAY. SHOULD ALLOW A SLIGHT
WARMUP FROM YESTERDAY BUT STILL CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW LATE
MAY CLIMO. MIGHT BE THE LAST DAY WITH NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
DUE TO THE BUILDING EAST COAST RIDGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
FORECAST PERIOD. LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY UPPER 40S TO MID-50S WHICH
IS VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...

CANT ARGUE WITH PREVIOUS SENTIMENTS EXPRESSED WITH REGARD TO THE
BARBECUE. NEARLY IDEAL WEATHER FOR LATE MAY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEEND. THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AMPLIFIES INTO A 590+ DM RIDGE
AND THE SURFACE HIGH OFF THE COAST ALSO BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY
WHILE MAINTAINING A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THIS WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
CONVECTION AND STORMINESS FROM WHERE IT HAS BEEN FOR SEVERAL WEEKS
NOW...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGHS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL CLIMB A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY AND BE ABOVE NORMAL BY
SUNDAY REACHING THE MID-80S EAST AND NEAR 80 WEST. CANT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO LOCAL TERRAIN CONVERGENCE EFFECTS AS MOISTURE
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. SYSTEM IS SLOWLY DRAWN EASTWARD. TUESDAY
WILL BE MUCH THE SAME BUT WITH A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION AGAIN MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT POPS ONLY
RISE INTO 30S FOR THE AFTERNOON...AGAIN DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE
AND DYNAMICS FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. EDGIING SLOWLY EASTWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...

SUMMERLIKE PATTERN TO CLOSE OUT THE LAST WEEK OF MAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK...THE
ACTUAL SURFACE HIGH BECOMING ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS WILL PLACE OUR FORECAST AREA IN AN IN INCREASINGLY MUGGY
PATTERN WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S TO COMPLIMENT THE
UPWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S/NEAR 90.

THE WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEEP
CONVECTION.  FORCING WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY THEN AREAWIDE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
TRIES TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE WEEK APPEARS TO BE
LOW...DYNAMIC SUPPORT LACKING.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM EDT SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS BEING REPORTED AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING
AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT AND RIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. A FEW REMNANT CLOUDS FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH ARE EVIDENT ON THE IR SATELLITE VIEW BUT
THESE ARE WELL ABOVE 12K FEET AND NOT SHOWING IN ANY METAR
REPORTS.

MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFTOVER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA
SATURDAY AND MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE 050-070 RANGE COULD YIELD
SCT-BKN CLOUDS DURING DIURNAL HEATING...MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. OCCASIONAL SCT250 AS WELL FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
SPILLING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE JUST TO OUR WEST. THE AIR MASS IS
QUITE DRY...BUT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE RELATIVELY EFFECTIVE
TONIGHT...WHICH COULD YIELD SOME MVFR BR AT LWB/BCB IN THE 09Z-12Z
TIME FRAME...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
WINDS...NW 5-7KTS THROUGH 04Z...THEN VEERING THROUGH NE-SE DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST. SPEEDS
REMAINING MOSTLY 7KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MADAME TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND THE HIGH
WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY
BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOUNTAIN AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY BY LATER TUESDAY...WHEN PERIODS OF
MVFR COULD OCCUR MAINLY BLUE RIDGE WEST. OTHERWISE...VFR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY OUTSIDE OF ANY LATE DAY CONVECTION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...PC
SHORT TERM...DS/PC
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...RAB



000
FXUS61 KRNK 230748
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
348 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NO MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT OUR REGION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST STAYS
IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND WITH
HEAT AND HUMIDITY ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WITH JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A LATE DAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES FURTHER TO THE EAST...OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...

1030 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS SHIFTING OUR WINDS FROM A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO
EASTERLY THEN SOUTHERLY BY EARLY SUNDAY. SHOULD ALLOW A SLIGHT
WARMUP FROM YESTERDAY BUT STILL CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW LATE
MAY CLIMO. MIGHT BE THE LAST DAY WITH NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
DUE TO THE BUILDING EAST COAST RIDGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
FORECAST PERIOD. LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY UPPER 40S TO MID-50S WHICH
IS VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...

CANT ARGUE WITH PREVIOUS SENTIMENTS EXPRESSED WITH REGARD TO THE
BARBECUE. NEARLY IDEAL WEATHER FOR LATE MAY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEEND. THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AMPLIFIES INTO A 590+ DM RIDGE
AND THE SURFACE HIGH OFF THE COAST ALSO BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY
WHILE MAINTAINING A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THIS WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
CONVECTION AND STORMINESS FROM WHERE IT HAS BEEN FOR SEVERAL WEEKS
NOW...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGHS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL CLIMB A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY AND BE ABOVE NORMAL BY
SUNDAY REACHING THE MID-80S EAST AND NEAR 80 WEST. CANT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO LOCAL TERRAIN CONVERGENCE EFFECTS AS MOISTURE
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. SYSTEM IS SLOWLY DRAWN EASTWARD. TUESDAY
WILL BE MUCH THE SAME BUT WITH A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION AGAIN MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT POPS ONLY
RISE INTO 30S FOR THE AFTERNOON...AGAIN DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE
AND DYNAMICS FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. EDGIING SLOWLY EASTWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...

SUMMERLIKE PATTERN TO CLOSE OUT THE LAST WEEK OF MAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK...THE
ACTUAL SURFACE HIGH BECOMING ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS WILL PLACE OUR FORECAST AREA IN AN IN INCREASINGLY MUGGY
PATTERN WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S TO COMPLIMENT THE
UPWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S/NEAR 90.

THE WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEEP
CONVECTION.  FORCING WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY THEN AREAWIDE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
TRIES TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE WEEK APPEARS TO BE
LOW...DYNAMIC SUPPORT LACKING.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM EDT SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS BEING REPORTED AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING
AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT AND RIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. A FEW REMNANT CLOUDS FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH ARE EVIDENT ON THE IR SATELLITE VIEW BUT
THESE ARE WELL ABOVE 12K FEET AND NOT SHOWING IN ANY METAR
REPORTS.

MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFTOVER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA
SATURDAY AND MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE 050-070 RANGE COULD YIELD
SCT-BKN CLOUDS DURING DIURNAL HEATING...MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. OCCASIONAL SCT250 AS WELL FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
SPILLING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE JUST TO OUR WEST. THE AIR MASS IS
QUITE DRY...BUT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE RELATIVELY EFFECTIVE
TONIGHT...WHICH COULD YIELD SOME MVFR BR AT LWB/BCB IN THE 09Z-12Z
TIME FRAME...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
WINDS...NW 5-7KTS THROUGH 04Z...THEN VEERING THROUGH NE-SE DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST. SPEEDS
REMAINING MOSTLY 7KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MADAME TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND THE HIGH
WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY
BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOUNTAIN AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY BY LATER TUESDAY...WHEN PERIODS OF
MVFR COULD OCCUR MAINLY BLUE RIDGE WEST. OTHERWISE...VFR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY OUTSIDE OF ANY LATE DAY CONVECTION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...PC
SHORT TERM...DS/PC
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...RAB



000
FXUS61 KRNK 230748
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
348 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NO MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT OUR REGION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST STAYS
IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND WITH
HEAT AND HUMIDITY ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WITH JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A LATE DAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES FURTHER TO THE EAST...OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...

1030 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS SHIFTING OUR WINDS FROM A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO
EASTERLY THEN SOUTHERLY BY EARLY SUNDAY. SHOULD ALLOW A SLIGHT
WARMUP FROM YESTERDAY BUT STILL CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW LATE
MAY CLIMO. MIGHT BE THE LAST DAY WITH NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
DUE TO THE BUILDING EAST COAST RIDGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
FORECAST PERIOD. LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY UPPER 40S TO MID-50S WHICH
IS VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...

CANT ARGUE WITH PREVIOUS SENTIMENTS EXPRESSED WITH REGARD TO THE
BARBECUE. NEARLY IDEAL WEATHER FOR LATE MAY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEEND. THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AMPLIFIES INTO A 590+ DM RIDGE
AND THE SURFACE HIGH OFF THE COAST ALSO BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY
WHILE MAINTAINING A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THIS WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
CONVECTION AND STORMINESS FROM WHERE IT HAS BEEN FOR SEVERAL WEEKS
NOW...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGHS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL CLIMB A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY AND BE ABOVE NORMAL BY
SUNDAY REACHING THE MID-80S EAST AND NEAR 80 WEST. CANT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO LOCAL TERRAIN CONVERGENCE EFFECTS AS MOISTURE
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. SYSTEM IS SLOWLY DRAWN EASTWARD. TUESDAY
WILL BE MUCH THE SAME BUT WITH A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION AGAIN MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT POPS ONLY
RISE INTO 30S FOR THE AFTERNOON...AGAIN DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE
AND DYNAMICS FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. EDGIING SLOWLY EASTWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...

SUMMERLIKE PATTERN TO CLOSE OUT THE LAST WEEK OF MAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK...THE
ACTUAL SURFACE HIGH BECOMING ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS WILL PLACE OUR FORECAST AREA IN AN IN INCREASINGLY MUGGY
PATTERN WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S TO COMPLIMENT THE
UPWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S/NEAR 90.

THE WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEEP
CONVECTION.  FORCING WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY THEN AREAWIDE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
TRIES TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE WEEK APPEARS TO BE
LOW...DYNAMIC SUPPORT LACKING.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM EDT SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS BEING REPORTED AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING
AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT AND RIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. A FEW REMNANT CLOUDS FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH ARE EVIDENT ON THE IR SATELLITE VIEW BUT
THESE ARE WELL ABOVE 12K FEET AND NOT SHOWING IN ANY METAR
REPORTS.

MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFTOVER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA
SATURDAY AND MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE 050-070 RANGE COULD YIELD
SCT-BKN CLOUDS DURING DIURNAL HEATING...MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. OCCASIONAL SCT250 AS WELL FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
SPILLING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE JUST TO OUR WEST. THE AIR MASS IS
QUITE DRY...BUT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE RELATIVELY EFFECTIVE
TONIGHT...WHICH COULD YIELD SOME MVFR BR AT LWB/BCB IN THE 09Z-12Z
TIME FRAME...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
WINDS...NW 5-7KTS THROUGH 04Z...THEN VEERING THROUGH NE-SE DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST. SPEEDS
REMAINING MOSTLY 7KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MADAME TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND THE HIGH
WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY
BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOUNTAIN AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY BY LATER TUESDAY...WHEN PERIODS OF
MVFR COULD OCCUR MAINLY BLUE RIDGE WEST. OTHERWISE...VFR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY OUTSIDE OF ANY LATE DAY CONVECTION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...PC
SHORT TERM...DS/PC
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...RAB



000
FXUS61 KRNK 230748
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
348 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NO MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT OUR REGION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST STAYS
IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND WITH
HEAT AND HUMIDITY ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WITH JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A LATE DAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES FURTHER TO THE EAST...OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...

1030 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS SHIFTING OUR WINDS FROM A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO
EASTERLY THEN SOUTHERLY BY EARLY SUNDAY. SHOULD ALLOW A SLIGHT
WARMUP FROM YESTERDAY BUT STILL CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW LATE
MAY CLIMO. MIGHT BE THE LAST DAY WITH NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
DUE TO THE BUILDING EAST COAST RIDGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
FORECAST PERIOD. LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY UPPER 40S TO MID-50S WHICH
IS VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...

CANT ARGUE WITH PREVIOUS SENTIMENTS EXPRESSED WITH REGARD TO THE
BARBECUE. NEARLY IDEAL WEATHER FOR LATE MAY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEEND. THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AMPLIFIES INTO A 590+ DM RIDGE
AND THE SURFACE HIGH OFF THE COAST ALSO BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY
WHILE MAINTAINING A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THIS WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
CONVECTION AND STORMINESS FROM WHERE IT HAS BEEN FOR SEVERAL WEEKS
NOW...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGHS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL CLIMB A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY AND BE ABOVE NORMAL BY
SUNDAY REACHING THE MID-80S EAST AND NEAR 80 WEST. CANT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO LOCAL TERRAIN CONVERGENCE EFFECTS AS MOISTURE
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. SYSTEM IS SLOWLY DRAWN EASTWARD. TUESDAY
WILL BE MUCH THE SAME BUT WITH A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION AGAIN MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT POPS ONLY
RISE INTO 30S FOR THE AFTERNOON...AGAIN DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE
AND DYNAMICS FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. EDGIING SLOWLY EASTWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...

SUMMERLIKE PATTERN TO CLOSE OUT THE LAST WEEK OF MAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK...THE
ACTUAL SURFACE HIGH BECOMING ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS WILL PLACE OUR FORECAST AREA IN AN IN INCREASINGLY MUGGY
PATTERN WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S TO COMPLIMENT THE
UPWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S/NEAR 90.

THE WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEEP
CONVECTION.  FORCING WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY THEN AREAWIDE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
TRIES TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE WEEK APPEARS TO BE
LOW...DYNAMIC SUPPORT LACKING.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM EDT SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS BEING REPORTED AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING
AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT AND RIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. A FEW REMNANT CLOUDS FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH ARE EVIDENT ON THE IR SATELLITE VIEW BUT
THESE ARE WELL ABOVE 12K FEET AND NOT SHOWING IN ANY METAR
REPORTS.

MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFTOVER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA
SATURDAY AND MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE 050-070 RANGE COULD YIELD
SCT-BKN CLOUDS DURING DIURNAL HEATING...MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. OCCASIONAL SCT250 AS WELL FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
SPILLING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE JUST TO OUR WEST. THE AIR MASS IS
QUITE DRY...BUT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE RELATIVELY EFFECTIVE
TONIGHT...WHICH COULD YIELD SOME MVFR BR AT LWB/BCB IN THE 09Z-12Z
TIME FRAME...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
WINDS...NW 5-7KTS THROUGH 04Z...THEN VEERING THROUGH NE-SE DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST. SPEEDS
REMAINING MOSTLY 7KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MADAME TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND THE HIGH
WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY
BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOUNTAIN AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY BY LATER TUESDAY...WHEN PERIODS OF
MVFR COULD OCCUR MAINLY BLUE RIDGE WEST. OTHERWISE...VFR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY OUTSIDE OF ANY LATE DAY CONVECTION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...PC
SHORT TERM...DS/PC
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...RAB



000
FXUS61 KRNK 230748
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
348 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NO MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT OUR REGION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST STAYS
IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND WITH
HEAT AND HUMIDITY ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WITH JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A LATE DAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES FURTHER TO THE EAST...OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...

1030 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS SHIFTING OUR WINDS FROM A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO
EASTERLY THEN SOUTHERLY BY EARLY SUNDAY. SHOULD ALLOW A SLIGHT
WARMUP FROM YESTERDAY BUT STILL CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW LATE
MAY CLIMO. MIGHT BE THE LAST DAY WITH NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
DUE TO THE BUILDING EAST COAST RIDGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
FORECAST PERIOD. LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY UPPER 40S TO MID-50S WHICH
IS VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...

CANT ARGUE WITH PREVIOUS SENTIMENTS EXPRESSED WITH REGARD TO THE
BARBECUE. NEARLY IDEAL WEATHER FOR LATE MAY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEEND. THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AMPLIFIES INTO A 590+ DM RIDGE
AND THE SURFACE HIGH OFF THE COAST ALSO BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY
WHILE MAINTAINING A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THIS WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
CONVECTION AND STORMINESS FROM WHERE IT HAS BEEN FOR SEVERAL WEEKS
NOW...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGHS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL CLIMB A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY AND BE ABOVE NORMAL BY
SUNDAY REACHING THE MID-80S EAST AND NEAR 80 WEST. CANT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO LOCAL TERRAIN CONVERGENCE EFFECTS AS MOISTURE
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. SYSTEM IS SLOWLY DRAWN EASTWARD. TUESDAY
WILL BE MUCH THE SAME BUT WITH A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION AGAIN MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT POPS ONLY
RISE INTO 30S FOR THE AFTERNOON...AGAIN DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE
AND DYNAMICS FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. EDGIING SLOWLY EASTWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...

SUMMERLIKE PATTERN TO CLOSE OUT THE LAST WEEK OF MAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK...THE
ACTUAL SURFACE HIGH BECOMING ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS WILL PLACE OUR FORECAST AREA IN AN IN INCREASINGLY MUGGY
PATTERN WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S TO COMPLIMENT THE
UPWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S/NEAR 90.

THE WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEEP
CONVECTION.  FORCING WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY THEN AREAWIDE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
TRIES TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE WEEK APPEARS TO BE
LOW...DYNAMIC SUPPORT LACKING.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM EDT SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS BEING REPORTED AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING
AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT AND RIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. A FEW REMNANT CLOUDS FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH ARE EVIDENT ON THE IR SATELLITE VIEW BUT
THESE ARE WELL ABOVE 12K FEET AND NOT SHOWING IN ANY METAR
REPORTS.

MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFTOVER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA
SATURDAY AND MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE 050-070 RANGE COULD YIELD
SCT-BKN CLOUDS DURING DIURNAL HEATING...MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. OCCASIONAL SCT250 AS WELL FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
SPILLING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE JUST TO OUR WEST. THE AIR MASS IS
QUITE DRY...BUT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE RELATIVELY EFFECTIVE
TONIGHT...WHICH COULD YIELD SOME MVFR BR AT LWB/BCB IN THE 09Z-12Z
TIME FRAME...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
WINDS...NW 5-7KTS THROUGH 04Z...THEN VEERING THROUGH NE-SE DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST. SPEEDS
REMAINING MOSTLY 7KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MADAME TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND THE HIGH
WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY
BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOUNTAIN AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY BY LATER TUESDAY...WHEN PERIODS OF
MVFR COULD OCCUR MAINLY BLUE RIDGE WEST. OTHERWISE...VFR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY OUTSIDE OF ANY LATE DAY CONVECTION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...PC
SHORT TERM...DS/PC
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...RAB



000
FXUS61 KRNK 230748
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
348 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NO MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT OUR REGION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST STAYS
IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND WITH
HEAT AND HUMIDITY ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WITH JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A LATE DAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES FURTHER TO THE EAST...OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...

1030 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS SHIFTING OUR WINDS FROM A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO
EASTERLY THEN SOUTHERLY BY EARLY SUNDAY. SHOULD ALLOW A SLIGHT
WARMUP FROM YESTERDAY BUT STILL CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW LATE
MAY CLIMO. MIGHT BE THE LAST DAY WITH NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
DUE TO THE BUILDING EAST COAST RIDGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
FORECAST PERIOD. LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY UPPER 40S TO MID-50S WHICH
IS VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...

CANT ARGUE WITH PREVIOUS SENTIMENTS EXPRESSED WITH REGARD TO THE
BARBECUE. NEARLY IDEAL WEATHER FOR LATE MAY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEEND. THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AMPLIFIES INTO A 590+ DM RIDGE
AND THE SURFACE HIGH OFF THE COAST ALSO BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY
WHILE MAINTAINING A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THIS WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
CONVECTION AND STORMINESS FROM WHERE IT HAS BEEN FOR SEVERAL WEEKS
NOW...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGHS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL CLIMB A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY AND BE ABOVE NORMAL BY
SUNDAY REACHING THE MID-80S EAST AND NEAR 80 WEST. CANT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO LOCAL TERRAIN CONVERGENCE EFFECTS AS MOISTURE
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. SYSTEM IS SLOWLY DRAWN EASTWARD. TUESDAY
WILL BE MUCH THE SAME BUT WITH A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION AGAIN MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT POPS ONLY
RISE INTO 30S FOR THE AFTERNOON...AGAIN DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE
AND DYNAMICS FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. EDGIING SLOWLY EASTWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...

SUMMERLIKE PATTERN TO CLOSE OUT THE LAST WEEK OF MAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK...THE
ACTUAL SURFACE HIGH BECOMING ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS WILL PLACE OUR FORECAST AREA IN AN IN INCREASINGLY MUGGY
PATTERN WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S TO COMPLIMENT THE
UPWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S/NEAR 90.

THE WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEEP
CONVECTION.  FORCING WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY THEN AREAWIDE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
TRIES TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE WEEK APPEARS TO BE
LOW...DYNAMIC SUPPORT LACKING.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM EDT SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS BEING REPORTED AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING
AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT AND RIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. A FEW REMNANT CLOUDS FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH ARE EVIDENT ON THE IR SATELLITE VIEW BUT
THESE ARE WELL ABOVE 12K FEET AND NOT SHOWING IN ANY METAR
REPORTS.

MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFTOVER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA
SATURDAY AND MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE 050-070 RANGE COULD YIELD
SCT-BKN CLOUDS DURING DIURNAL HEATING...MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. OCCASIONAL SCT250 AS WELL FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
SPILLING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE JUST TO OUR WEST. THE AIR MASS IS
QUITE DRY...BUT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE RELATIVELY EFFECTIVE
TONIGHT...WHICH COULD YIELD SOME MVFR BR AT LWB/BCB IN THE 09Z-12Z
TIME FRAME...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
WINDS...NW 5-7KTS THROUGH 04Z...THEN VEERING THROUGH NE-SE DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST. SPEEDS
REMAINING MOSTLY 7KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MADAME TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND THE HIGH
WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY
BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOUNTAIN AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY BY LATER TUESDAY...WHEN PERIODS OF
MVFR COULD OCCUR MAINLY BLUE RIDGE WEST. OTHERWISE...VFR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY OUTSIDE OF ANY LATE DAY CONVECTION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...PC
SHORT TERM...DS/PC
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...RAB



000
FXUS61 KRNK 230748
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
348 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NO MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT OUR REGION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST STAYS
IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND WITH
HEAT AND HUMIDITY ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WITH JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A LATE DAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES FURTHER TO THE EAST...OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...

1030 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS SHIFTING OUR WINDS FROM A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO
EASTERLY THEN SOUTHERLY BY EARLY SUNDAY. SHOULD ALLOW A SLIGHT
WARMUP FROM YESTERDAY BUT STILL CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW LATE
MAY CLIMO. MIGHT BE THE LAST DAY WITH NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
DUE TO THE BUILDING EAST COAST RIDGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
FORECAST PERIOD. LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY UPPER 40S TO MID-50S WHICH
IS VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...

CANT ARGUE WITH PREVIOUS SENTIMENTS EXPRESSED WITH REGARD TO THE
BARBECUE. NEARLY IDEAL WEATHER FOR LATE MAY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEEND. THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AMPLIFIES INTO A 590+ DM RIDGE
AND THE SURFACE HIGH OFF THE COAST ALSO BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY
WHILE MAINTAINING A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THIS WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
CONVECTION AND STORMINESS FROM WHERE IT HAS BEEN FOR SEVERAL WEEKS
NOW...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGHS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL CLIMB A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY AND BE ABOVE NORMAL BY
SUNDAY REACHING THE MID-80S EAST AND NEAR 80 WEST. CANT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO LOCAL TERRAIN CONVERGENCE EFFECTS AS MOISTURE
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. SYSTEM IS SLOWLY DRAWN EASTWARD. TUESDAY
WILL BE MUCH THE SAME BUT WITH A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION AGAIN MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT POPS ONLY
RISE INTO 30S FOR THE AFTERNOON...AGAIN DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE
AND DYNAMICS FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. EDGIING SLOWLY EASTWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...

SUMMERLIKE PATTERN TO CLOSE OUT THE LAST WEEK OF MAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK...THE
ACTUAL SURFACE HIGH BECOMING ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS WILL PLACE OUR FORECAST AREA IN AN IN INCREASINGLY MUGGY
PATTERN WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S TO COMPLIMENT THE
UPWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S/NEAR 90.

THE WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEEP
CONVECTION.  FORCING WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY THEN AREAWIDE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
TRIES TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE WEEK APPEARS TO BE
LOW...DYNAMIC SUPPORT LACKING.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM EDT SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS BEING REPORTED AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING
AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT AND RIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. A FEW REMNANT CLOUDS FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH ARE EVIDENT ON THE IR SATELLITE VIEW BUT
THESE ARE WELL ABOVE 12K FEET AND NOT SHOWING IN ANY METAR
REPORTS.

MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFTOVER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA
SATURDAY AND MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE 050-070 RANGE COULD YIELD
SCT-BKN CLOUDS DURING DIURNAL HEATING...MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. OCCASIONAL SCT250 AS WELL FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
SPILLING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE JUST TO OUR WEST. THE AIR MASS IS
QUITE DRY...BUT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE RELATIVELY EFFECTIVE
TONIGHT...WHICH COULD YIELD SOME MVFR BR AT LWB/BCB IN THE 09Z-12Z
TIME FRAME...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
WINDS...NW 5-7KTS THROUGH 04Z...THEN VEERING THROUGH NE-SE DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST. SPEEDS
REMAINING MOSTLY 7KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MADAME TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND THE HIGH
WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY
BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOUNTAIN AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY BY LATER TUESDAY...WHEN PERIODS OF
MVFR COULD OCCUR MAINLY BLUE RIDGE WEST. OTHERWISE...VFR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY OUTSIDE OF ANY LATE DAY CONVECTION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...PC
SHORT TERM...DS/PC
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...RAB



000
FXUS61 KRNK 230748
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
348 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NO MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT OUR REGION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST STAYS
IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND WITH
HEAT AND HUMIDITY ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WITH JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A LATE DAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES FURTHER TO THE EAST...OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...

1030 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS SHIFTING OUR WINDS FROM A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO
EASTERLY THEN SOUTHERLY BY EARLY SUNDAY. SHOULD ALLOW A SLIGHT
WARMUP FROM YESTERDAY BUT STILL CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW LATE
MAY CLIMO. MIGHT BE THE LAST DAY WITH NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
DUE TO THE BUILDING EAST COAST RIDGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
FORECAST PERIOD. LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY UPPER 40S TO MID-50S WHICH
IS VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...

CANT ARGUE WITH PREVIOUS SENTIMENTS EXPRESSED WITH REGARD TO THE
BARBECUE. NEARLY IDEAL WEATHER FOR LATE MAY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEEND. THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AMPLIFIES INTO A 590+ DM RIDGE
AND THE SURFACE HIGH OFF THE COAST ALSO BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY
WHILE MAINTAINING A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THIS WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
CONVECTION AND STORMINESS FROM WHERE IT HAS BEEN FOR SEVERAL WEEKS
NOW...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGHS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL CLIMB A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY AND BE ABOVE NORMAL BY
SUNDAY REACHING THE MID-80S EAST AND NEAR 80 WEST. CANT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO LOCAL TERRAIN CONVERGENCE EFFECTS AS MOISTURE
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. SYSTEM IS SLOWLY DRAWN EASTWARD. TUESDAY
WILL BE MUCH THE SAME BUT WITH A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION AGAIN MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT POPS ONLY
RISE INTO 30S FOR THE AFTERNOON...AGAIN DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE
AND DYNAMICS FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. EDGIING SLOWLY EASTWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...

SUMMERLIKE PATTERN TO CLOSE OUT THE LAST WEEK OF MAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK...THE
ACTUAL SURFACE HIGH BECOMING ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS WILL PLACE OUR FORECAST AREA IN AN IN INCREASINGLY MUGGY
PATTERN WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S TO COMPLIMENT THE
UPWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S/NEAR 90.

THE WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEEP
CONVECTION.  FORCING WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY THEN AREAWIDE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
TRIES TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE WEEK APPEARS TO BE
LOW...DYNAMIC SUPPORT LACKING.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM EDT SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS BEING REPORTED AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING
AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT AND RIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. A FEW REMNANT CLOUDS FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH ARE EVIDENT ON THE IR SATELLITE VIEW BUT
THESE ARE WELL ABOVE 12K FEET AND NOT SHOWING IN ANY METAR
REPORTS.

MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFTOVER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA
SATURDAY AND MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE 050-070 RANGE COULD YIELD
SCT-BKN CLOUDS DURING DIURNAL HEATING...MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. OCCASIONAL SCT250 AS WELL FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
SPILLING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE JUST TO OUR WEST. THE AIR MASS IS
QUITE DRY...BUT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE RELATIVELY EFFECTIVE
TONIGHT...WHICH COULD YIELD SOME MVFR BR AT LWB/BCB IN THE 09Z-12Z
TIME FRAME...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
WINDS...NW 5-7KTS THROUGH 04Z...THEN VEERING THROUGH NE-SE DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST. SPEEDS
REMAINING MOSTLY 7KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MADAME TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND THE HIGH
WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY
BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOUNTAIN AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY BY LATER TUESDAY...WHEN PERIODS OF
MVFR COULD OCCUR MAINLY BLUE RIDGE WEST. OTHERWISE...VFR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY OUTSIDE OF ANY LATE DAY CONVECTION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...PC
SHORT TERM...DS/PC
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...RAB



000
FXUS61 KRNK 230748
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
348 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NO MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT OUR REGION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST STAYS
IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND WITH
HEAT AND HUMIDITY ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WITH JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A LATE DAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES FURTHER TO THE EAST...OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...

1030 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS SHIFTING OUR WINDS FROM A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO
EASTERLY THEN SOUTHERLY BY EARLY SUNDAY. SHOULD ALLOW A SLIGHT
WARMUP FROM YESTERDAY BUT STILL CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW LATE
MAY CLIMO. MIGHT BE THE LAST DAY WITH NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
DUE TO THE BUILDING EAST COAST RIDGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
FORECAST PERIOD. LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY UPPER 40S TO MID-50S WHICH
IS VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...

CANT ARGUE WITH PREVIOUS SENTIMENTS EXPRESSED WITH REGARD TO THE
BARBECUE. NEARLY IDEAL WEATHER FOR LATE MAY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEEND. THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AMPLIFIES INTO A 590+ DM RIDGE
AND THE SURFACE HIGH OFF THE COAST ALSO BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY
WHILE MAINTAINING A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THIS WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
CONVECTION AND STORMINESS FROM WHERE IT HAS BEEN FOR SEVERAL WEEKS
NOW...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGHS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL CLIMB A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY AND BE ABOVE NORMAL BY
SUNDAY REACHING THE MID-80S EAST AND NEAR 80 WEST. CANT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO LOCAL TERRAIN CONVERGENCE EFFECTS AS MOISTURE
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. SYSTEM IS SLOWLY DRAWN EASTWARD. TUESDAY
WILL BE MUCH THE SAME BUT WITH A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION AGAIN MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT POPS ONLY
RISE INTO 30S FOR THE AFTERNOON...AGAIN DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE
AND DYNAMICS FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. EDGIING SLOWLY EASTWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...

SUMMERLIKE PATTERN TO CLOSE OUT THE LAST WEEK OF MAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK...THE
ACTUAL SURFACE HIGH BECOMING ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS WILL PLACE OUR FORECAST AREA IN AN IN INCREASINGLY MUGGY
PATTERN WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S TO COMPLIMENT THE
UPWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S/NEAR 90.

THE WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEEP
CONVECTION.  FORCING WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY THEN AREAWIDE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
TRIES TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE WEEK APPEARS TO BE
LOW...DYNAMIC SUPPORT LACKING.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM EDT SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS BEING REPORTED AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING
AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT AND RIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. A FEW REMNANT CLOUDS FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH ARE EVIDENT ON THE IR SATELLITE VIEW BUT
THESE ARE WELL ABOVE 12K FEET AND NOT SHOWING IN ANY METAR
REPORTS.

MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFTOVER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA
SATURDAY AND MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE 050-070 RANGE COULD YIELD
SCT-BKN CLOUDS DURING DIURNAL HEATING...MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. OCCASIONAL SCT250 AS WELL FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
SPILLING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE JUST TO OUR WEST. THE AIR MASS IS
QUITE DRY...BUT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE RELATIVELY EFFECTIVE
TONIGHT...WHICH COULD YIELD SOME MVFR BR AT LWB/BCB IN THE 09Z-12Z
TIME FRAME...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
WINDS...NW 5-7KTS THROUGH 04Z...THEN VEERING THROUGH NE-SE DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST. SPEEDS
REMAINING MOSTLY 7KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MADAME TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND THE HIGH
WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY
BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOUNTAIN AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY BY LATER TUESDAY...WHEN PERIODS OF
MVFR COULD OCCUR MAINLY BLUE RIDGE WEST. OTHERWISE...VFR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY OUTSIDE OF ANY LATE DAY CONVECTION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...PC
SHORT TERM...DS/PC
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...RAB



000
FXUS61 KRNK 230748
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
348 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NO MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT OUR REGION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST STAYS
IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND WITH
HEAT AND HUMIDITY ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WITH JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A LATE DAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES FURTHER TO THE EAST...OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...

1030 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS SHIFTING OUR WINDS FROM A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO
EASTERLY THEN SOUTHERLY BY EARLY SUNDAY. SHOULD ALLOW A SLIGHT
WARMUP FROM YESTERDAY BUT STILL CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW LATE
MAY CLIMO. MIGHT BE THE LAST DAY WITH NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
DUE TO THE BUILDING EAST COAST RIDGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
FORECAST PERIOD. LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY UPPER 40S TO MID-50S WHICH
IS VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...

CANT ARGUE WITH PREVIOUS SENTIMENTS EXPRESSED WITH REGARD TO THE
BARBECUE. NEARLY IDEAL WEATHER FOR LATE MAY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEEND. THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AMPLIFIES INTO A 590+ DM RIDGE
AND THE SURFACE HIGH OFF THE COAST ALSO BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY
WHILE MAINTAINING A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THIS WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
CONVECTION AND STORMINESS FROM WHERE IT HAS BEEN FOR SEVERAL WEEKS
NOW...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGHS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL CLIMB A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY AND BE ABOVE NORMAL BY
SUNDAY REACHING THE MID-80S EAST AND NEAR 80 WEST. CANT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO LOCAL TERRAIN CONVERGENCE EFFECTS AS MOISTURE
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. SYSTEM IS SLOWLY DRAWN EASTWARD. TUESDAY
WILL BE MUCH THE SAME BUT WITH A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION AGAIN MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT POPS ONLY
RISE INTO 30S FOR THE AFTERNOON...AGAIN DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE
AND DYNAMICS FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. EDGIING SLOWLY EASTWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...

SUMMERLIKE PATTERN TO CLOSE OUT THE LAST WEEK OF MAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK...THE
ACTUAL SURFACE HIGH BECOMING ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS WILL PLACE OUR FORECAST AREA IN AN IN INCREASINGLY MUGGY
PATTERN WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S TO COMPLIMENT THE
UPWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S/NEAR 90.

THE WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEEP
CONVECTION.  FORCING WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY THEN AREAWIDE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
TRIES TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE WEEK APPEARS TO BE
LOW...DYNAMIC SUPPORT LACKING.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM EDT SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS BEING REPORTED AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING
AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT AND RIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. A FEW REMNANT CLOUDS FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH ARE EVIDENT ON THE IR SATELLITE VIEW BUT
THESE ARE WELL ABOVE 12K FEET AND NOT SHOWING IN ANY METAR
REPORTS.

MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFTOVER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA
SATURDAY AND MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE 050-070 RANGE COULD YIELD
SCT-BKN CLOUDS DURING DIURNAL HEATING...MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. OCCASIONAL SCT250 AS WELL FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
SPILLING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE JUST TO OUR WEST. THE AIR MASS IS
QUITE DRY...BUT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE RELATIVELY EFFECTIVE
TONIGHT...WHICH COULD YIELD SOME MVFR BR AT LWB/BCB IN THE 09Z-12Z
TIME FRAME...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
WINDS...NW 5-7KTS THROUGH 04Z...THEN VEERING THROUGH NE-SE DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST. SPEEDS
REMAINING MOSTLY 7KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MADAME TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND THE HIGH
WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY
BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOUNTAIN AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY BY LATER TUESDAY...WHEN PERIODS OF
MVFR COULD OCCUR MAINLY BLUE RIDGE WEST. OTHERWISE...VFR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY OUTSIDE OF ANY LATE DAY CONVECTION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...PC
SHORT TERM...DS/PC
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...RAB



000
FXUS61 KRNK 230748
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
348 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NO MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT OUR REGION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST STAYS
IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND WITH
HEAT AND HUMIDITY ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WITH JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A LATE DAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES FURTHER TO THE EAST...OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...

1030 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS SHIFTING OUR WINDS FROM A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO
EASTERLY THEN SOUTHERLY BY EARLY SUNDAY. SHOULD ALLOW A SLIGHT
WARMUP FROM YESTERDAY BUT STILL CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW LATE
MAY CLIMO. MIGHT BE THE LAST DAY WITH NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
DUE TO THE BUILDING EAST COAST RIDGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
FORECAST PERIOD. LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY UPPER 40S TO MID-50S WHICH
IS VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...

CANT ARGUE WITH PREVIOUS SENTIMENTS EXPRESSED WITH REGARD TO THE
BARBECUE. NEARLY IDEAL WEATHER FOR LATE MAY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEEND. THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AMPLIFIES INTO A 590+ DM RIDGE
AND THE SURFACE HIGH OFF THE COAST ALSO BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY
WHILE MAINTAINING A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THIS WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
CONVECTION AND STORMINESS FROM WHERE IT HAS BEEN FOR SEVERAL WEEKS
NOW...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGHS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL CLIMB A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY AND BE ABOVE NORMAL BY
SUNDAY REACHING THE MID-80S EAST AND NEAR 80 WEST. CANT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO LOCAL TERRAIN CONVERGENCE EFFECTS AS MOISTURE
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. SYSTEM IS SLOWLY DRAWN EASTWARD. TUESDAY
WILL BE MUCH THE SAME BUT WITH A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION AGAIN MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT POPS ONLY
RISE INTO 30S FOR THE AFTERNOON...AGAIN DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE
AND DYNAMICS FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. EDGIING SLOWLY EASTWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...

SUMMERLIKE PATTERN TO CLOSE OUT THE LAST WEEK OF MAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK...THE
ACTUAL SURFACE HIGH BECOMING ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS WILL PLACE OUR FORECAST AREA IN AN IN INCREASINGLY MUGGY
PATTERN WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S TO COMPLIMENT THE
UPWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S/NEAR 90.

THE WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEEP
CONVECTION.  FORCING WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY THEN AREAWIDE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
TRIES TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE WEEK APPEARS TO BE
LOW...DYNAMIC SUPPORT LACKING.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM EDT SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS BEING REPORTED AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING
AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT AND RIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. A FEW REMNANT CLOUDS FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH ARE EVIDENT ON THE IR SATELLITE VIEW BUT
THESE ARE WELL ABOVE 12K FEET AND NOT SHOWING IN ANY METAR
REPORTS.

MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFTOVER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA
SATURDAY AND MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE 050-070 RANGE COULD YIELD
SCT-BKN CLOUDS DURING DIURNAL HEATING...MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. OCCASIONAL SCT250 AS WELL FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
SPILLING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE JUST TO OUR WEST. THE AIR MASS IS
QUITE DRY...BUT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE RELATIVELY EFFECTIVE
TONIGHT...WHICH COULD YIELD SOME MVFR BR AT LWB/BCB IN THE 09Z-12Z
TIME FRAME...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
WINDS...NW 5-7KTS THROUGH 04Z...THEN VEERING THROUGH NE-SE DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST. SPEEDS
REMAINING MOSTLY 7KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MADAME TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND THE HIGH
WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY
BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOUNTAIN AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY BY LATER TUESDAY...WHEN PERIODS OF
MVFR COULD OCCUR MAINLY BLUE RIDGE WEST. OTHERWISE...VFR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY OUTSIDE OF ANY LATE DAY CONVECTION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...PC
SHORT TERM...DS/PC
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...RAB



000
FXUS61 KRNK 230748
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
348 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NO MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT OUR REGION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST STAYS
IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND WITH
HEAT AND HUMIDITY ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WITH JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A LATE DAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES FURTHER TO THE EAST...OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...

1030 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS SHIFTING OUR WINDS FROM A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO
EASTERLY THEN SOUTHERLY BY EARLY SUNDAY. SHOULD ALLOW A SLIGHT
WARMUP FROM YESTERDAY BUT STILL CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW LATE
MAY CLIMO. MIGHT BE THE LAST DAY WITH NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
DUE TO THE BUILDING EAST COAST RIDGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
FORECAST PERIOD. LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY UPPER 40S TO MID-50S WHICH
IS VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...

CANT ARGUE WITH PREVIOUS SENTIMENTS EXPRESSED WITH REGARD TO THE
BARBECUE. NEARLY IDEAL WEATHER FOR LATE MAY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEEND. THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AMPLIFIES INTO A 590+ DM RIDGE
AND THE SURFACE HIGH OFF THE COAST ALSO BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY
WHILE MAINTAINING A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THIS WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
CONVECTION AND STORMINESS FROM WHERE IT HAS BEEN FOR SEVERAL WEEKS
NOW...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGHS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL CLIMB A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY AND BE ABOVE NORMAL BY
SUNDAY REACHING THE MID-80S EAST AND NEAR 80 WEST. CANT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO LOCAL TERRAIN CONVERGENCE EFFECTS AS MOISTURE
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. SYSTEM IS SLOWLY DRAWN EASTWARD. TUESDAY
WILL BE MUCH THE SAME BUT WITH A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION AGAIN MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT POPS ONLY
RISE INTO 30S FOR THE AFTERNOON...AGAIN DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE
AND DYNAMICS FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. EDGIING SLOWLY EASTWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...

SUMMERLIKE PATTERN TO CLOSE OUT THE LAST WEEK OF MAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK...THE
ACTUAL SURFACE HIGH BECOMING ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS WILL PLACE OUR FORECAST AREA IN AN IN INCREASINGLY MUGGY
PATTERN WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S TO COMPLIMENT THE
UPWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S/NEAR 90.

THE WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEEP
CONVECTION.  FORCING WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY THEN AREAWIDE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
TRIES TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE WEEK APPEARS TO BE
LOW...DYNAMIC SUPPORT LACKING.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM EDT SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS BEING REPORTED AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING
AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT AND RIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. A FEW REMNANT CLOUDS FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH ARE EVIDENT ON THE IR SATELLITE VIEW BUT
THESE ARE WELL ABOVE 12K FEET AND NOT SHOWING IN ANY METAR
REPORTS.

MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFTOVER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA
SATURDAY AND MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE 050-070 RANGE COULD YIELD
SCT-BKN CLOUDS DURING DIURNAL HEATING...MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. OCCASIONAL SCT250 AS WELL FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
SPILLING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE JUST TO OUR WEST. THE AIR MASS IS
QUITE DRY...BUT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE RELATIVELY EFFECTIVE
TONIGHT...WHICH COULD YIELD SOME MVFR BR AT LWB/BCB IN THE 09Z-12Z
TIME FRAME...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
WINDS...NW 5-7KTS THROUGH 04Z...THEN VEERING THROUGH NE-SE DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST. SPEEDS
REMAINING MOSTLY 7KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MADAME TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND THE HIGH
WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY
BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOUNTAIN AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY BY LATER TUESDAY...WHEN PERIODS OF
MVFR COULD OCCUR MAINLY BLUE RIDGE WEST. OTHERWISE...VFR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY OUTSIDE OF ANY LATE DAY CONVECTION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...PC
SHORT TERM...DS/PC
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...RAB



000
FXUS61 KRNK 230748
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
348 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NO MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT OUR REGION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST STAYS
IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND WITH
HEAT AND HUMIDITY ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WITH JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A LATE DAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES FURTHER TO THE EAST...OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...

1030 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS SHIFTING OUR WINDS FROM A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO
EASTERLY THEN SOUTHERLY BY EARLY SUNDAY. SHOULD ALLOW A SLIGHT
WARMUP FROM YESTERDAY BUT STILL CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW LATE
MAY CLIMO. MIGHT BE THE LAST DAY WITH NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
DUE TO THE BUILDING EAST COAST RIDGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
FORECAST PERIOD. LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY UPPER 40S TO MID-50S WHICH
IS VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...

CANT ARGUE WITH PREVIOUS SENTIMENTS EXPRESSED WITH REGARD TO THE
BARBECUE. NEARLY IDEAL WEATHER FOR LATE MAY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEEND. THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AMPLIFIES INTO A 590+ DM RIDGE
AND THE SURFACE HIGH OFF THE COAST ALSO BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY
WHILE MAINTAINING A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THIS WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
CONVECTION AND STORMINESS FROM WHERE IT HAS BEEN FOR SEVERAL WEEKS
NOW...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGHS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL CLIMB A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY AND BE ABOVE NORMAL BY
SUNDAY REACHING THE MID-80S EAST AND NEAR 80 WEST. CANT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO LOCAL TERRAIN CONVERGENCE EFFECTS AS MOISTURE
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. SYSTEM IS SLOWLY DRAWN EASTWARD. TUESDAY
WILL BE MUCH THE SAME BUT WITH A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION AGAIN MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT POPS ONLY
RISE INTO 30S FOR THE AFTERNOON...AGAIN DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE
AND DYNAMICS FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. EDGIING SLOWLY EASTWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...

SUMMERLIKE PATTERN TO CLOSE OUT THE LAST WEEK OF MAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK...THE
ACTUAL SURFACE HIGH BECOMING ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS WILL PLACE OUR FORECAST AREA IN AN IN INCREASINGLY MUGGY
PATTERN WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S TO COMPLIMENT THE
UPWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S/NEAR 90.

THE WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEEP
CONVECTION.  FORCING WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY THEN AREAWIDE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
TRIES TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE WEEK APPEARS TO BE
LOW...DYNAMIC SUPPORT LACKING.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM EDT SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS BEING REPORTED AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING
AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT AND RIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. A FEW REMNANT CLOUDS FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH ARE EVIDENT ON THE IR SATELLITE VIEW BUT
THESE ARE WELL ABOVE 12K FEET AND NOT SHOWING IN ANY METAR
REPORTS.

MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFTOVER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA
SATURDAY AND MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE 050-070 RANGE COULD YIELD
SCT-BKN CLOUDS DURING DIURNAL HEATING...MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. OCCASIONAL SCT250 AS WELL FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
SPILLING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE JUST TO OUR WEST. THE AIR MASS IS
QUITE DRY...BUT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE RELATIVELY EFFECTIVE
TONIGHT...WHICH COULD YIELD SOME MVFR BR AT LWB/BCB IN THE 09Z-12Z
TIME FRAME...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
WINDS...NW 5-7KTS THROUGH 04Z...THEN VEERING THROUGH NE-SE DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST. SPEEDS
REMAINING MOSTLY 7KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MADAME TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND THE HIGH
WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY
BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOUNTAIN AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY BY LATER TUESDAY...WHEN PERIODS OF
MVFR COULD OCCUR MAINLY BLUE RIDGE WEST. OTHERWISE...VFR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY OUTSIDE OF ANY LATE DAY CONVECTION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...PC
SHORT TERM...DS/PC
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...RAB



000
FXUS61 KLWX 230742
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
342 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TODAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST SUNDAY AND IT WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR NEXT
WEEK...MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE JULY INSTEAD OF LATE MAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE WILL SUBSIDE AROUND SUNRISE.

UNSEASONABLY COOL EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE QUICKLY
BY AFTERNOON. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL BOOST HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO
THE UPPER 60S TO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DIP BACK INTO THE 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT 50S OVER THE
WASHINGTON DC AND BALTIMORE METRO AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
WHILE A 500MB UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO THE MIDDLE 80S AREA WIDE. THE
FORECAST IS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER
COMPARED TO RECENT NIGHTS DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...RANGING FROM
THE MID AND UPPER 50S IN PORTIONS OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND
SHENANDOAH VALLEY TO THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON
AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN MONDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN EXTENDED FROM THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE POSSIBLY WEAKENING A BIT THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

A SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH AND SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS DURING
THIS TIME...MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE OF JULY AS OPPOSED
TO LATE MAY. THE HOTTEST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WHERE MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH
DAY. COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE MOST EXTENSIVE LATE IN THE
WEEK AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE POSSIBLY WEAKENS A BIT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC.
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY ON SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING
THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME...BUT
THERE WILL BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AROUND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS NEAR THE WESTERN TERMINALS TUESDAY...AND PERHAPS
FARTHER EAST ACROSS ALL OF THE TERMINALS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...UNTIL
AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
WATERS AND CAUSE THE WINDS TO RELAX TODAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL SWITCH TO SOUTHERLY. GUSTS AROUND
15 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE BAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING
THIS TIME. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME...BUT IT WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO THE
RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ501.
VA...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ501-503-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ531>537-539>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...BJL/KRW
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/KRW
MARINE...BJL/KRW




000
FXUS61 KLWX 230742
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
342 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TODAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST SUNDAY AND IT WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR NEXT
WEEK...MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE JULY INSTEAD OF LATE MAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE WILL SUBSIDE AROUND SUNRISE.

UNSEASONABLY COOL EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE QUICKLY
BY AFTERNOON. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL BOOST HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO
THE UPPER 60S TO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DIP BACK INTO THE 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT 50S OVER THE
WASHINGTON DC AND BALTIMORE METRO AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
WHILE A 500MB UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO THE MIDDLE 80S AREA WIDE. THE
FORECAST IS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER
COMPARED TO RECENT NIGHTS DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...RANGING FROM
THE MID AND UPPER 50S IN PORTIONS OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND
SHENANDOAH VALLEY TO THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON
AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN MONDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN EXTENDED FROM THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE POSSIBLY WEAKENING A BIT THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

A SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH AND SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS DURING
THIS TIME...MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE OF JULY AS OPPOSED
TO LATE MAY. THE HOTTEST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WHERE MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH
DAY. COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE MOST EXTENSIVE LATE IN THE
WEEK AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE POSSIBLY WEAKENS A BIT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC.
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY ON SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING
THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME...BUT
THERE WILL BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AROUND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS NEAR THE WESTERN TERMINALS TUESDAY...AND PERHAPS
FARTHER EAST ACROSS ALL OF THE TERMINALS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...UNTIL
AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
WATERS AND CAUSE THE WINDS TO RELAX TODAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL SWITCH TO SOUTHERLY. GUSTS AROUND
15 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE BAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING
THIS TIME. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME...BUT IT WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO THE
RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ501.
VA...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ501-503-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ531>537-539>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...BJL/KRW
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/KRW
MARINE...BJL/KRW




000
FXUS61 KLWX 230742
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
342 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TODAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST SUNDAY AND IT WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR NEXT
WEEK...MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE JULY INSTEAD OF LATE MAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE WILL SUBSIDE AROUND SUNRISE.

UNSEASONABLY COOL EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE QUICKLY
BY AFTERNOON. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL BOOST HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO
THE UPPER 60S TO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DIP BACK INTO THE 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT 50S OVER THE
WASHINGTON DC AND BALTIMORE METRO AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
WHILE A 500MB UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO THE MIDDLE 80S AREA WIDE. THE
FORECAST IS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER
COMPARED TO RECENT NIGHTS DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...RANGING FROM
THE MID AND UPPER 50S IN PORTIONS OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND
SHENANDOAH VALLEY TO THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON
AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN MONDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN EXTENDED FROM THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE POSSIBLY WEAKENING A BIT THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

A SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH AND SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS DURING
THIS TIME...MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE OF JULY AS OPPOSED
TO LATE MAY. THE HOTTEST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WHERE MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH
DAY. COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE MOST EXTENSIVE LATE IN THE
WEEK AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE POSSIBLY WEAKENS A BIT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC.
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY ON SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING
THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME...BUT
THERE WILL BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AROUND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS NEAR THE WESTERN TERMINALS TUESDAY...AND PERHAPS
FARTHER EAST ACROSS ALL OF THE TERMINALS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...UNTIL
AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
WATERS AND CAUSE THE WINDS TO RELAX TODAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL SWITCH TO SOUTHERLY. GUSTS AROUND
15 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE BAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING
THIS TIME. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME...BUT IT WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO THE
RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ501.
VA...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ501-503-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ531>537-539>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...BJL/KRW
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/KRW
MARINE...BJL/KRW




000
FXUS61 KLWX 230742
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
342 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TODAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST SUNDAY AND IT WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR NEXT
WEEK...MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE JULY INSTEAD OF LATE MAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE WILL SUBSIDE AROUND SUNRISE.

UNSEASONABLY COOL EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE QUICKLY
BY AFTERNOON. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL BOOST HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO
THE UPPER 60S TO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DIP BACK INTO THE 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT 50S OVER THE
WASHINGTON DC AND BALTIMORE METRO AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
WHILE A 500MB UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO THE MIDDLE 80S AREA WIDE. THE
FORECAST IS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER
COMPARED TO RECENT NIGHTS DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...RANGING FROM
THE MID AND UPPER 50S IN PORTIONS OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND
SHENANDOAH VALLEY TO THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON
AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN MONDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN EXTENDED FROM THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE POSSIBLY WEAKENING A BIT THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

A SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH AND SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS DURING
THIS TIME...MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE OF JULY AS OPPOSED
TO LATE MAY. THE HOTTEST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WHERE MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH
DAY. COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE MOST EXTENSIVE LATE IN THE
WEEK AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE POSSIBLY WEAKENS A BIT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC.
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY ON SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING
THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME...BUT
THERE WILL BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AROUND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS NEAR THE WESTERN TERMINALS TUESDAY...AND PERHAPS
FARTHER EAST ACROSS ALL OF THE TERMINALS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...UNTIL
AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
WATERS AND CAUSE THE WINDS TO RELAX TODAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL SWITCH TO SOUTHERLY. GUSTS AROUND
15 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE BAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING
THIS TIME. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME...BUT IT WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO THE
RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ501.
VA...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ501-503-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ531>537-539>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...BJL/KRW
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/KRW
MARINE...BJL/KRW




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230732
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
332 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY...BEFORE SLIDING
OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT AND REMAINING JUST OFF THE COAST THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY SFC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. 1028+ MB SFC HI PRES WILL THEN QUICKLY BUILD
OVER THE REGION, BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A DRY, PLEASANT START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE U60S LOWER EASTERN SHORE...WITH LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S ELSEWHERE UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/LOWER
MID- ATLANTIC COAST AS SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT.
RESULTANT LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO THE SSE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A MODEST INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS OVERNIGHT, BUT WITH
MOSTLY CLR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS, EXPECT A COOL NIGHT. LOOK FOR
EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE U40S TO LOW 50S INLAND TO MID 50S SE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK TO BE
CHARACTERIZED BY GRADUAL WARMING TREND ON SLY FLOW WITH THE SFC
HIGH ORIENTED OFFSHORE AND AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING ACROSS
THE ERN SEABOARD. SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE WILL
ONCE AGAIN SERVE TO KEEP POPS AT A MINIMUM...AND THUS HAVE KEPT
THE FORECAST DRY DESPITE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. LOOK FOR HI TEMPS SUN IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S TO
WARM INTO THE MID TO UPR 80S MON...AND THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S ON
TUESDAY. EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S, BUT WILL
SIMILARLY WARM SLIGHTLY EACH MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE CONTINUES TO APPEAR TO BE DOMINATED WITH A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SE/MID ATLC STATES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LATEST ECMWF/GFS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH
THE GFS STILL A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE AT BREAKING DOWN/WEAKENING
THE RIDGE BY MID TO LATE WEEK (THOUGH NOT TO THE EXTENT IT HAD
BEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS). MODELS ALSO DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH
RESPECT TO 850 MB TEMPERATURES...THE ECMWF REMAINING WARMER BY
ABOUT 2-3 C THAN THE GFS. OVERALL...THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO WARM
/SUMMER-LIKE/ WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH VERY MINIMAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN...LIMITED TO ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY
LATE AFTN OR EVENING TSTMS DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
DRIFTING INTO THE REGION. WILL HAVE JUST 20% POP OVER JUST THE FAR
NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON WED...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THU/FRI (UP TO 30% FAR NW).
INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH TEMPS WARMING BACK TO THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS (GFS
HIGHS ONLY IN MID 80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS
PATTERN). CONDITIONS WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE
COAST. LOWS AVG IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO SAG SWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AS OF 23/0500Z AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SSEWD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...CROSSING ALL TERMINALS. ANY GUSTINESS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE LIMITED TO KORF...WHERE NORTH
WINDS OFF CHES BAY WILL OCCUR CLOSER TO DAYBREAK (OR BTWN
23/0900-1100Z). OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
BY THIS AFTN AND REMAINS INVOF THE COAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND REMAINING ANCHORED OFF THE COAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS SAGGING SWD ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND WILL DROP
DOWN ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING. THE NLY SURGE
WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK TO 15-20KT...WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 25KT
POSSIBLE. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS ARE SLOW TO INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS
BUT HAVE MAINTAINED SCA FLAGS THROUGH 700 AM FOR CHES BAY NORTH OF
NEW POINT COMFORT AND THROUGH 1000 AM FOR SRN CHES BAY BELOW NEW
POINT COMFORT. THE RIVERS MAY EXPERIENCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MARGINAL
SCA CONDITIONS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE. WAVES ON
CHES BAY BUILD TO 3-4FT THROUGH THIS MORNING AND THEN SUBSIDE TO 1-
2FT BY THIS AFTN. SEAS ON THE COASTAL WATERS BUILD TO 3-4 FT THIS
MORNING BUT QUICKLY SUBSIDE TO 2-3FT BY THIS AFTN.

THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS QUICKLY BEHIND THE WEAK FRONTAL
PASSAGE TODAY...THEREFORE EXPECT WINDS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY ONCE
AGAIN BY LATE MORNING AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD. WINDS SHIFT TO
THE S-SE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. WINDS
SHOULD THEN FOLLOW A DIURNAL PATTERN...INCREASING A BIT MAINLY IN
THE LATE AFTN/EVENING/EARLY AM HRS LATE SUN THROUGH MID WEEK AS AN
UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST.
OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SUB-SCA ALTHOUGH SLY WINDS
MAY GUST TO NEAR 20KT IN THE BAY DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED DIURNAL
SURGES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630-
     631.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230732
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
332 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY...BEFORE SLIDING
OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT AND REMAINING JUST OFF THE COAST THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY SFC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. 1028+ MB SFC HI PRES WILL THEN QUICKLY BUILD
OVER THE REGION, BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A DRY, PLEASANT START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE U60S LOWER EASTERN SHORE...WITH LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S ELSEWHERE UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/LOWER
MID- ATLANTIC COAST AS SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT.
RESULTANT LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO THE SSE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A MODEST INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS OVERNIGHT, BUT WITH
MOSTLY CLR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS, EXPECT A COOL NIGHT. LOOK FOR
EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE U40S TO LOW 50S INLAND TO MID 50S SE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK TO BE
CHARACTERIZED BY GRADUAL WARMING TREND ON SLY FLOW WITH THE SFC
HIGH ORIENTED OFFSHORE AND AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING ACROSS
THE ERN SEABOARD. SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE WILL
ONCE AGAIN SERVE TO KEEP POPS AT A MINIMUM...AND THUS HAVE KEPT
THE FORECAST DRY DESPITE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. LOOK FOR HI TEMPS SUN IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S TO
WARM INTO THE MID TO UPR 80S MON...AND THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S ON
TUESDAY. EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S, BUT WILL
SIMILARLY WARM SLIGHTLY EACH MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE CONTINUES TO APPEAR TO BE DOMINATED WITH A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SE/MID ATLC STATES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LATEST ECMWF/GFS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH
THE GFS STILL A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE AT BREAKING DOWN/WEAKENING
THE RIDGE BY MID TO LATE WEEK (THOUGH NOT TO THE EXTENT IT HAD
BEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS). MODELS ALSO DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH
RESPECT TO 850 MB TEMPERATURES...THE ECMWF REMAINING WARMER BY
ABOUT 2-3 C THAN THE GFS. OVERALL...THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO WARM
/SUMMER-LIKE/ WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH VERY MINIMAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN...LIMITED TO ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY
LATE AFTN OR EVENING TSTMS DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
DRIFTING INTO THE REGION. WILL HAVE JUST 20% POP OVER JUST THE FAR
NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON WED...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THU/FRI (UP TO 30% FAR NW).
INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH TEMPS WARMING BACK TO THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS (GFS
HIGHS ONLY IN MID 80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS
PATTERN). CONDITIONS WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE
COAST. LOWS AVG IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO SAG SWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AS OF 23/0500Z AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SSEWD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...CROSSING ALL TERMINALS. ANY GUSTINESS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE LIMITED TO KORF...WHERE NORTH
WINDS OFF CHES BAY WILL OCCUR CLOSER TO DAYBREAK (OR BTWN
23/0900-1100Z). OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
BY THIS AFTN AND REMAINS INVOF THE COAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND REMAINING ANCHORED OFF THE COAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS SAGGING SWD ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND WILL DROP
DOWN ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING. THE NLY SURGE
WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK TO 15-20KT...WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 25KT
POSSIBLE. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS ARE SLOW TO INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS
BUT HAVE MAINTAINED SCA FLAGS THROUGH 700 AM FOR CHES BAY NORTH OF
NEW POINT COMFORT AND THROUGH 1000 AM FOR SRN CHES BAY BELOW NEW
POINT COMFORT. THE RIVERS MAY EXPERIENCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MARGINAL
SCA CONDITIONS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE. WAVES ON
CHES BAY BUILD TO 3-4FT THROUGH THIS MORNING AND THEN SUBSIDE TO 1-
2FT BY THIS AFTN. SEAS ON THE COASTAL WATERS BUILD TO 3-4 FT THIS
MORNING BUT QUICKLY SUBSIDE TO 2-3FT BY THIS AFTN.

THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS QUICKLY BEHIND THE WEAK FRONTAL
PASSAGE TODAY...THEREFORE EXPECT WINDS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY ONCE
AGAIN BY LATE MORNING AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD. WINDS SHIFT TO
THE S-SE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. WINDS
SHOULD THEN FOLLOW A DIURNAL PATTERN...INCREASING A BIT MAINLY IN
THE LATE AFTN/EVENING/EARLY AM HRS LATE SUN THROUGH MID WEEK AS AN
UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST.
OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SUB-SCA ALTHOUGH SLY WINDS
MAY GUST TO NEAR 20KT IN THE BAY DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED DIURNAL
SURGES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630-
     631.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230732
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
332 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY...BEFORE SLIDING
OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT AND REMAINING JUST OFF THE COAST THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY SFC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. 1028+ MB SFC HI PRES WILL THEN QUICKLY BUILD
OVER THE REGION, BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A DRY, PLEASANT START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE U60S LOWER EASTERN SHORE...WITH LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S ELSEWHERE UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/LOWER
MID- ATLANTIC COAST AS SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT.
RESULTANT LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO THE SSE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A MODEST INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS OVERNIGHT, BUT WITH
MOSTLY CLR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS, EXPECT A COOL NIGHT. LOOK FOR
EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE U40S TO LOW 50S INLAND TO MID 50S SE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK TO BE
CHARACTERIZED BY GRADUAL WARMING TREND ON SLY FLOW WITH THE SFC
HIGH ORIENTED OFFSHORE AND AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING ACROSS
THE ERN SEABOARD. SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE WILL
ONCE AGAIN SERVE TO KEEP POPS AT A MINIMUM...AND THUS HAVE KEPT
THE FORECAST DRY DESPITE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. LOOK FOR HI TEMPS SUN IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S TO
WARM INTO THE MID TO UPR 80S MON...AND THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S ON
TUESDAY. EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S, BUT WILL
SIMILARLY WARM SLIGHTLY EACH MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE CONTINUES TO APPEAR TO BE DOMINATED WITH A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SE/MID ATLC STATES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LATEST ECMWF/GFS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH
THE GFS STILL A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE AT BREAKING DOWN/WEAKENING
THE RIDGE BY MID TO LATE WEEK (THOUGH NOT TO THE EXTENT IT HAD
BEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS). MODELS ALSO DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH
RESPECT TO 850 MB TEMPERATURES...THE ECMWF REMAINING WARMER BY
ABOUT 2-3 C THAN THE GFS. OVERALL...THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO WARM
/SUMMER-LIKE/ WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH VERY MINIMAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN...LIMITED TO ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY
LATE AFTN OR EVENING TSTMS DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
DRIFTING INTO THE REGION. WILL HAVE JUST 20% POP OVER JUST THE FAR
NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON WED...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THU/FRI (UP TO 30% FAR NW).
INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH TEMPS WARMING BACK TO THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS (GFS
HIGHS ONLY IN MID 80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS
PATTERN). CONDITIONS WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE
COAST. LOWS AVG IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO SAG SWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AS OF 23/0500Z AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SSEWD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...CROSSING ALL TERMINALS. ANY GUSTINESS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE LIMITED TO KORF...WHERE NORTH
WINDS OFF CHES BAY WILL OCCUR CLOSER TO DAYBREAK (OR BTWN
23/0900-1100Z). OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
BY THIS AFTN AND REMAINS INVOF THE COAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND REMAINING ANCHORED OFF THE COAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS SAGGING SWD ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND WILL DROP
DOWN ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING. THE NLY SURGE
WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK TO 15-20KT...WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 25KT
POSSIBLE. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS ARE SLOW TO INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS
BUT HAVE MAINTAINED SCA FLAGS THROUGH 700 AM FOR CHES BAY NORTH OF
NEW POINT COMFORT AND THROUGH 1000 AM FOR SRN CHES BAY BELOW NEW
POINT COMFORT. THE RIVERS MAY EXPERIENCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MARGINAL
SCA CONDITIONS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE. WAVES ON
CHES BAY BUILD TO 3-4FT THROUGH THIS MORNING AND THEN SUBSIDE TO 1-
2FT BY THIS AFTN. SEAS ON THE COASTAL WATERS BUILD TO 3-4 FT THIS
MORNING BUT QUICKLY SUBSIDE TO 2-3FT BY THIS AFTN.

THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS QUICKLY BEHIND THE WEAK FRONTAL
PASSAGE TODAY...THEREFORE EXPECT WINDS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY ONCE
AGAIN BY LATE MORNING AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD. WINDS SHIFT TO
THE S-SE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. WINDS
SHOULD THEN FOLLOW A DIURNAL PATTERN...INCREASING A BIT MAINLY IN
THE LATE AFTN/EVENING/EARLY AM HRS LATE SUN THROUGH MID WEEK AS AN
UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST.
OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SUB-SCA ALTHOUGH SLY WINDS
MAY GUST TO NEAR 20KT IN THE BAY DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED DIURNAL
SURGES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630-
     631.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230732
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
332 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY...BEFORE SLIDING
OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT AND REMAINING JUST OFF THE COAST THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY SFC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. 1028+ MB SFC HI PRES WILL THEN QUICKLY BUILD
OVER THE REGION, BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A DRY, PLEASANT START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE U60S LOWER EASTERN SHORE...WITH LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S ELSEWHERE UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/LOWER
MID- ATLANTIC COAST AS SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT.
RESULTANT LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO THE SSE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A MODEST INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS OVERNIGHT, BUT WITH
MOSTLY CLR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS, EXPECT A COOL NIGHT. LOOK FOR
EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE U40S TO LOW 50S INLAND TO MID 50S SE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK TO BE
CHARACTERIZED BY GRADUAL WARMING TREND ON SLY FLOW WITH THE SFC
HIGH ORIENTED OFFSHORE AND AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING ACROSS
THE ERN SEABOARD. SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE WILL
ONCE AGAIN SERVE TO KEEP POPS AT A MINIMUM...AND THUS HAVE KEPT
THE FORECAST DRY DESPITE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. LOOK FOR HI TEMPS SUN IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S TO
WARM INTO THE MID TO UPR 80S MON...AND THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S ON
TUESDAY. EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S, BUT WILL
SIMILARLY WARM SLIGHTLY EACH MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE CONTINUES TO APPEAR TO BE DOMINATED WITH A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SE/MID ATLC STATES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LATEST ECMWF/GFS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH
THE GFS STILL A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE AT BREAKING DOWN/WEAKENING
THE RIDGE BY MID TO LATE WEEK (THOUGH NOT TO THE EXTENT IT HAD
BEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS). MODELS ALSO DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH
RESPECT TO 850 MB TEMPERATURES...THE ECMWF REMAINING WARMER BY
ABOUT 2-3 C THAN THE GFS. OVERALL...THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO WARM
/SUMMER-LIKE/ WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH VERY MINIMAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN...LIMITED TO ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY
LATE AFTN OR EVENING TSTMS DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
DRIFTING INTO THE REGION. WILL HAVE JUST 20% POP OVER JUST THE FAR
NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON WED...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THU/FRI (UP TO 30% FAR NW).
INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH TEMPS WARMING BACK TO THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS (GFS
HIGHS ONLY IN MID 80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS
PATTERN). CONDITIONS WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE
COAST. LOWS AVG IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO SAG SWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AS OF 23/0500Z AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SSEWD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...CROSSING ALL TERMINALS. ANY GUSTINESS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE LIMITED TO KORF...WHERE NORTH
WINDS OFF CHES BAY WILL OCCUR CLOSER TO DAYBREAK (OR BTWN
23/0900-1100Z). OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
BY THIS AFTN AND REMAINS INVOF THE COAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND REMAINING ANCHORED OFF THE COAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS SAGGING SWD ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND WILL DROP
DOWN ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING. THE NLY SURGE
WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK TO 15-20KT...WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 25KT
POSSIBLE. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS ARE SLOW TO INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS
BUT HAVE MAINTAINED SCA FLAGS THROUGH 700 AM FOR CHES BAY NORTH OF
NEW POINT COMFORT AND THROUGH 1000 AM FOR SRN CHES BAY BELOW NEW
POINT COMFORT. THE RIVERS MAY EXPERIENCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MARGINAL
SCA CONDITIONS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE. WAVES ON
CHES BAY BUILD TO 3-4FT THROUGH THIS MORNING AND THEN SUBSIDE TO 1-
2FT BY THIS AFTN. SEAS ON THE COASTAL WATERS BUILD TO 3-4 FT THIS
MORNING BUT QUICKLY SUBSIDE TO 2-3FT BY THIS AFTN.

THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS QUICKLY BEHIND THE WEAK FRONTAL
PASSAGE TODAY...THEREFORE EXPECT WINDS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY ONCE
AGAIN BY LATE MORNING AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD. WINDS SHIFT TO
THE S-SE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. WINDS
SHOULD THEN FOLLOW A DIURNAL PATTERN...INCREASING A BIT MAINLY IN
THE LATE AFTN/EVENING/EARLY AM HRS LATE SUN THROUGH MID WEEK AS AN
UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST.
OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SUB-SCA ALTHOUGH SLY WINDS
MAY GUST TO NEAR 20KT IN THE BAY DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED DIURNAL
SURGES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630-
     631.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230732
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
332 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY...BEFORE SLIDING
OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT AND REMAINING JUST OFF THE COAST THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY SFC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. 1028+ MB SFC HI PRES WILL THEN QUICKLY BUILD
OVER THE REGION, BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A DRY, PLEASANT START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE U60S LOWER EASTERN SHORE...WITH LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S ELSEWHERE UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/LOWER
MID- ATLANTIC COAST AS SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT.
RESULTANT LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO THE SSE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A MODEST INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS OVERNIGHT, BUT WITH
MOSTLY CLR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS, EXPECT A COOL NIGHT. LOOK FOR
EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE U40S TO LOW 50S INLAND TO MID 50S SE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK TO BE
CHARACTERIZED BY GRADUAL WARMING TREND ON SLY FLOW WITH THE SFC
HIGH ORIENTED OFFSHORE AND AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING ACROSS
THE ERN SEABOARD. SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE WILL
ONCE AGAIN SERVE TO KEEP POPS AT A MINIMUM...AND THUS HAVE KEPT
THE FORECAST DRY DESPITE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. LOOK FOR HI TEMPS SUN IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S TO
WARM INTO THE MID TO UPR 80S MON...AND THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S ON
TUESDAY. EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S, BUT WILL
SIMILARLY WARM SLIGHTLY EACH MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE CONTINUES TO APPEAR TO BE DOMINATED WITH A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SE/MID ATLC STATES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LATEST ECMWF/GFS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH
THE GFS STILL A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE AT BREAKING DOWN/WEAKENING
THE RIDGE BY MID TO LATE WEEK (THOUGH NOT TO THE EXTENT IT HAD
BEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS). MODELS ALSO DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH
RESPECT TO 850 MB TEMPERATURES...THE ECMWF REMAINING WARMER BY
ABOUT 2-3 C THAN THE GFS. OVERALL...THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO WARM
/SUMMER-LIKE/ WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH VERY MINIMAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN...LIMITED TO ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY
LATE AFTN OR EVENING TSTMS DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
DRIFTING INTO THE REGION. WILL HAVE JUST 20% POP OVER JUST THE FAR
NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON WED...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THU/FRI (UP TO 30% FAR NW).
INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH TEMPS WARMING BACK TO THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS (GFS
HIGHS ONLY IN MID 80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS
PATTERN). CONDITIONS WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE
COAST. LOWS AVG IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO SAG SWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AS OF 23/0500Z AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SSEWD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...CROSSING ALL TERMINALS. ANY GUSTINESS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE LIMITED TO KORF...WHERE NORTH
WINDS OFF CHES BAY WILL OCCUR CLOSER TO DAYBREAK (OR BTWN
23/0900-1100Z). OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
BY THIS AFTN AND REMAINS INVOF THE COAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND REMAINING ANCHORED OFF THE COAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS SAGGING SWD ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND WILL DROP
DOWN ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING. THE NLY SURGE
WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK TO 15-20KT...WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 25KT
POSSIBLE. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS ARE SLOW TO INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS
BUT HAVE MAINTAINED SCA FLAGS THROUGH 700 AM FOR CHES BAY NORTH OF
NEW POINT COMFORT AND THROUGH 1000 AM FOR SRN CHES BAY BELOW NEW
POINT COMFORT. THE RIVERS MAY EXPERIENCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MARGINAL
SCA CONDITIONS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE. WAVES ON
CHES BAY BUILD TO 3-4FT THROUGH THIS MORNING AND THEN SUBSIDE TO 1-
2FT BY THIS AFTN. SEAS ON THE COASTAL WATERS BUILD TO 3-4 FT THIS
MORNING BUT QUICKLY SUBSIDE TO 2-3FT BY THIS AFTN.

THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS QUICKLY BEHIND THE WEAK FRONTAL
PASSAGE TODAY...THEREFORE EXPECT WINDS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY ONCE
AGAIN BY LATE MORNING AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD. WINDS SHIFT TO
THE S-SE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. WINDS
SHOULD THEN FOLLOW A DIURNAL PATTERN...INCREASING A BIT MAINLY IN
THE LATE AFTN/EVENING/EARLY AM HRS LATE SUN THROUGH MID WEEK AS AN
UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST.
OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SUB-SCA ALTHOUGH SLY WINDS
MAY GUST TO NEAR 20KT IN THE BAY DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED DIURNAL
SURGES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630-
     631.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230732
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
332 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY...BEFORE SLIDING
OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT AND REMAINING JUST OFF THE COAST THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY SFC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. 1028+ MB SFC HI PRES WILL THEN QUICKLY BUILD
OVER THE REGION, BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A DRY, PLEASANT START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE U60S LOWER EASTERN SHORE...WITH LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S ELSEWHERE UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/LOWER
MID- ATLANTIC COAST AS SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT.
RESULTANT LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO THE SSE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A MODEST INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS OVERNIGHT, BUT WITH
MOSTLY CLR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS, EXPECT A COOL NIGHT. LOOK FOR
EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE U40S TO LOW 50S INLAND TO MID 50S SE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK TO BE
CHARACTERIZED BY GRADUAL WARMING TREND ON SLY FLOW WITH THE SFC
HIGH ORIENTED OFFSHORE AND AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING ACROSS
THE ERN SEABOARD. SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE WILL
ONCE AGAIN SERVE TO KEEP POPS AT A MINIMUM...AND THUS HAVE KEPT
THE FORECAST DRY DESPITE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. LOOK FOR HI TEMPS SUN IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S TO
WARM INTO THE MID TO UPR 80S MON...AND THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S ON
TUESDAY. EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S, BUT WILL
SIMILARLY WARM SLIGHTLY EACH MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE CONTINUES TO APPEAR TO BE DOMINATED WITH A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SE/MID ATLC STATES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LATEST ECMWF/GFS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH
THE GFS STILL A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE AT BREAKING DOWN/WEAKENING
THE RIDGE BY MID TO LATE WEEK (THOUGH NOT TO THE EXTENT IT HAD
BEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS). MODELS ALSO DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH
RESPECT TO 850 MB TEMPERATURES...THE ECMWF REMAINING WARMER BY
ABOUT 2-3 C THAN THE GFS. OVERALL...THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO WARM
/SUMMER-LIKE/ WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH VERY MINIMAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN...LIMITED TO ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY
LATE AFTN OR EVENING TSTMS DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
DRIFTING INTO THE REGION. WILL HAVE JUST 20% POP OVER JUST THE FAR
NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON WED...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THU/FRI (UP TO 30% FAR NW).
INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH TEMPS WARMING BACK TO THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS (GFS
HIGHS ONLY IN MID 80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS
PATTERN). CONDITIONS WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE
COAST. LOWS AVG IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO SAG SWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AS OF 23/0500Z AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SSEWD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...CROSSING ALL TERMINALS. ANY GUSTINESS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE LIMITED TO KORF...WHERE NORTH
WINDS OFF CHES BAY WILL OCCUR CLOSER TO DAYBREAK (OR BTWN
23/0900-1100Z). OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
BY THIS AFTN AND REMAINS INVOF THE COAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND REMAINING ANCHORED OFF THE COAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS SAGGING SWD ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND WILL DROP
DOWN ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING. THE NLY SURGE
WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK TO 15-20KT...WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 25KT
POSSIBLE. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS ARE SLOW TO INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS
BUT HAVE MAINTAINED SCA FLAGS THROUGH 700 AM FOR CHES BAY NORTH OF
NEW POINT COMFORT AND THROUGH 1000 AM FOR SRN CHES BAY BELOW NEW
POINT COMFORT. THE RIVERS MAY EXPERIENCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MARGINAL
SCA CONDITIONS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE. WAVES ON
CHES BAY BUILD TO 3-4FT THROUGH THIS MORNING AND THEN SUBSIDE TO 1-
2FT BY THIS AFTN. SEAS ON THE COASTAL WATERS BUILD TO 3-4 FT THIS
MORNING BUT QUICKLY SUBSIDE TO 2-3FT BY THIS AFTN.

THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS QUICKLY BEHIND THE WEAK FRONTAL
PASSAGE TODAY...THEREFORE EXPECT WINDS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY ONCE
AGAIN BY LATE MORNING AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD. WINDS SHIFT TO
THE S-SE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. WINDS
SHOULD THEN FOLLOW A DIURNAL PATTERN...INCREASING A BIT MAINLY IN
THE LATE AFTN/EVENING/EARLY AM HRS LATE SUN THROUGH MID WEEK AS AN
UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST.
OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SUB-SCA ALTHOUGH SLY WINDS
MAY GUST TO NEAR 20KT IN THE BAY DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED DIURNAL
SURGES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630-
     631.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD



000
FXUS61 KRNK 230557
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
157 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NO MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT OUR REGION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST STAYS
IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND WITH
HEAT AND HUMIDITY ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WITH JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A LATE DAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES FURTHER TO THE EAST...OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 145 AM EDT SATURDAY...

LINGERING DEBRIS CLOUDINESS SHOWING UP ON IR SATELLITE IS ALL
THAT REMAINS FROM A SMALL BATCH OF SHOWERS THAT POPPED UP ALONG A
WEAK COLD FRONT UP TOWARD THE MASON-DIXON LINE EARLIER THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE AN UNEVENTFUL START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

ON SATURDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO OUR EAST AND SET
UP A SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW WHICH WILL WARM US UP A FEW
DEGREES FROM TODAY AND START TO INCREASE HUMIDITY LEVELS A BIT. A
STRAY SPRINKLE IS POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE WITH THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RUNNING UP THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE
REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL ZONE...BUT ANY POPS WILL BE BELOW
MENTIONABLE LEVELS AND IT CERTAINLY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A REASON TO
CANCEL A PICNIC SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.

LOWS TONIGHT ARE A BIT CHALLENGING AS ANY CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT DROPPING DOWN WILL INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. STILL
BELIEVE IT WILL GET QUITE CHILLY WITH GENERALLY LOW/MID 40S WEST
OF THE RIDGE AND MID/UPPER 40S EAST. SOME OF THE NORMALLY COOLER
LOCATIONS WEST OF THE RIDGE MAY REACH THE UPPER 30S BY DAYBREAK
BUT BELIEVE EXPECTED DEWPOINTS AND SOME DEGREE OF CLOUDS WILL
PROHIBIT ANY FROST FORMATION AND MITIGATE ANY THREAT TO TENDER
VEGETATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...

TIME TO FIRE UP THE BARBIE!

HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES TRENDING PROGRESSIVELY
WARMER.  WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE...SHOWER PRODUCTION WILL BE KEPT
TO A MINIMUM...THUS EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...

SUMMERLIKE PATTERN TO CLOSE OUT THE LAST WEEK OF MAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK...THE
ACTUAL SURFACE HIGH BECOMING ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS WILL PLACE OUR FORECAST AREA IN AN IN INCREASINGLY MUGGY
PATTERN WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S TO COMPLIMENT THE
UPWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S/NEAR 90.

THE WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEEP
CONVECTION.  FORCING WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY THEN AREAWIDE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
TRIES TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE WEEK APPEARS TO BE
LOW...DYNAMIC SUPPORT LACKING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM EDT SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS BEING REPORTED AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING
AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT AND RIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. A FEW REMNANT CLOUDS FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH ARE EVIDENT ON THE IR SATELLITE VIEW BUT
THESE ARE WELL ABOVE 12K FEET AND NOT SHOWING IN ANY METAR
REPORTS.

MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFTOVER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA
SATURDAY AND MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE 050-070 RANGE COULD YIELD
SCT-BKN CLOUDS DURING DIURNAL HEATING...MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. OCCASIONAL SCT250 AS WELL FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
SPILLING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE JUST TO OUR WEST. THE AIR MASS IS
QUITE DRY...BUT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE RELATIVELY EFFECTIVE
TONIGHT...WHICH COULD YIELD SOME MVFR BR AT LWB/BCB IN THE 09Z-12Z
TIME FRAME...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
WINDS...NW 5-7KTS THROUGH 04Z...THEN VEERING THROUGH NE-SE DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST. SPEEDS
REMAINING MOSTLY 7KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MADAME TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND THE HIGH
WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY
BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOUNTAIN AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY BY LATER TUESDAY...WHEN PERIODS OF
MVFR COULD OCCUR MAINLY BLUE RIDGE WEST. OTHERWISE...VFR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY OUTSIDE OF ANY LATE DAY CONVECTION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS/PC
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...RAB/PC




000
FXUS61 KRNK 230557
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
157 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NO MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT OUR REGION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST STAYS
IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND WITH
HEAT AND HUMIDITY ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WITH JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A LATE DAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES FURTHER TO THE EAST...OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 145 AM EDT SATURDAY...

LINGERING DEBRIS CLOUDINESS SHOWING UP ON IR SATELLITE IS ALL
THAT REMAINS FROM A SMALL BATCH OF SHOWERS THAT POPPED UP ALONG A
WEAK COLD FRONT UP TOWARD THE MASON-DIXON LINE EARLIER THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE AN UNEVENTFUL START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

ON SATURDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO OUR EAST AND SET
UP A SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW WHICH WILL WARM US UP A FEW
DEGREES FROM TODAY AND START TO INCREASE HUMIDITY LEVELS A BIT. A
STRAY SPRINKLE IS POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE WITH THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RUNNING UP THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE
REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL ZONE...BUT ANY POPS WILL BE BELOW
MENTIONABLE LEVELS AND IT CERTAINLY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A REASON TO
CANCEL A PICNIC SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.

LOWS TONIGHT ARE A BIT CHALLENGING AS ANY CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT DROPPING DOWN WILL INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. STILL
BELIEVE IT WILL GET QUITE CHILLY WITH GENERALLY LOW/MID 40S WEST
OF THE RIDGE AND MID/UPPER 40S EAST. SOME OF THE NORMALLY COOLER
LOCATIONS WEST OF THE RIDGE MAY REACH THE UPPER 30S BY DAYBREAK
BUT BELIEVE EXPECTED DEWPOINTS AND SOME DEGREE OF CLOUDS WILL
PROHIBIT ANY FROST FORMATION AND MITIGATE ANY THREAT TO TENDER
VEGETATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...

TIME TO FIRE UP THE BARBIE!

HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES TRENDING PROGRESSIVELY
WARMER.  WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE...SHOWER PRODUCTION WILL BE KEPT
TO A MINIMUM...THUS EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...

SUMMERLIKE PATTERN TO CLOSE OUT THE LAST WEEK OF MAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK...THE
ACTUAL SURFACE HIGH BECOMING ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS WILL PLACE OUR FORECAST AREA IN AN IN INCREASINGLY MUGGY
PATTERN WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S TO COMPLIMENT THE
UPWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S/NEAR 90.

THE WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEEP
CONVECTION.  FORCING WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY THEN AREAWIDE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
TRIES TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE WEEK APPEARS TO BE
LOW...DYNAMIC SUPPORT LACKING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM EDT SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS BEING REPORTED AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING
AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT AND RIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. A FEW REMNANT CLOUDS FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH ARE EVIDENT ON THE IR SATELLITE VIEW BUT
THESE ARE WELL ABOVE 12K FEET AND NOT SHOWING IN ANY METAR
REPORTS.

MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFTOVER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA
SATURDAY AND MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE 050-070 RANGE COULD YIELD
SCT-BKN CLOUDS DURING DIURNAL HEATING...MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. OCCASIONAL SCT250 AS WELL FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
SPILLING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE JUST TO OUR WEST. THE AIR MASS IS
QUITE DRY...BUT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE RELATIVELY EFFECTIVE
TONIGHT...WHICH COULD YIELD SOME MVFR BR AT LWB/BCB IN THE 09Z-12Z
TIME FRAME...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
WINDS...NW 5-7KTS THROUGH 04Z...THEN VEERING THROUGH NE-SE DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST. SPEEDS
REMAINING MOSTLY 7KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MADAME TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND THE HIGH
WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY
BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOUNTAIN AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY BY LATER TUESDAY...WHEN PERIODS OF
MVFR COULD OCCUR MAINLY BLUE RIDGE WEST. OTHERWISE...VFR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY OUTSIDE OF ANY LATE DAY CONVECTION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS/PC
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...RAB/PC



000
FXUS61 KRNK 230557
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
157 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NO MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT OUR REGION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST STAYS
IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND WITH
HEAT AND HUMIDITY ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WITH JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A LATE DAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES FURTHER TO THE EAST...OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 145 AM EDT SATURDAY...

LINGERING DEBRIS CLOUDINESS SHOWING UP ON IR SATELLITE IS ALL
THAT REMAINS FROM A SMALL BATCH OF SHOWERS THAT POPPED UP ALONG A
WEAK COLD FRONT UP TOWARD THE MASON-DIXON LINE EARLIER THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE AN UNEVENTFUL START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

ON SATURDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO OUR EAST AND SET
UP A SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW WHICH WILL WARM US UP A FEW
DEGREES FROM TODAY AND START TO INCREASE HUMIDITY LEVELS A BIT. A
STRAY SPRINKLE IS POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE WITH THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RUNNING UP THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE
REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL ZONE...BUT ANY POPS WILL BE BELOW
MENTIONABLE LEVELS AND IT CERTAINLY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A REASON TO
CANCEL A PICNIC SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.

LOWS TONIGHT ARE A BIT CHALLENGING AS ANY CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT DROPPING DOWN WILL INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. STILL
BELIEVE IT WILL GET QUITE CHILLY WITH GENERALLY LOW/MID 40S WEST
OF THE RIDGE AND MID/UPPER 40S EAST. SOME OF THE NORMALLY COOLER
LOCATIONS WEST OF THE RIDGE MAY REACH THE UPPER 30S BY DAYBREAK
BUT BELIEVE EXPECTED DEWPOINTS AND SOME DEGREE OF CLOUDS WILL
PROHIBIT ANY FROST FORMATION AND MITIGATE ANY THREAT TO TENDER
VEGETATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...

TIME TO FIRE UP THE BARBIE!

HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES TRENDING PROGRESSIVELY
WARMER.  WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE...SHOWER PRODUCTION WILL BE KEPT
TO A MINIMUM...THUS EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...

SUMMERLIKE PATTERN TO CLOSE OUT THE LAST WEEK OF MAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK...THE
ACTUAL SURFACE HIGH BECOMING ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS WILL PLACE OUR FORECAST AREA IN AN IN INCREASINGLY MUGGY
PATTERN WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S TO COMPLIMENT THE
UPWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S/NEAR 90.

THE WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEEP
CONVECTION.  FORCING WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY THEN AREAWIDE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
TRIES TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE WEEK APPEARS TO BE
LOW...DYNAMIC SUPPORT LACKING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM EDT SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS BEING REPORTED AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING
AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT AND RIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. A FEW REMNANT CLOUDS FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH ARE EVIDENT ON THE IR SATELLITE VIEW BUT
THESE ARE WELL ABOVE 12K FEET AND NOT SHOWING IN ANY METAR
REPORTS.

MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFTOVER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA
SATURDAY AND MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE 050-070 RANGE COULD YIELD
SCT-BKN CLOUDS DURING DIURNAL HEATING...MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. OCCASIONAL SCT250 AS WELL FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
SPILLING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE JUST TO OUR WEST. THE AIR MASS IS
QUITE DRY...BUT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE RELATIVELY EFFECTIVE
TONIGHT...WHICH COULD YIELD SOME MVFR BR AT LWB/BCB IN THE 09Z-12Z
TIME FRAME...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
WINDS...NW 5-7KTS THROUGH 04Z...THEN VEERING THROUGH NE-SE DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST. SPEEDS
REMAINING MOSTLY 7KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MADAME TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND THE HIGH
WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY
BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOUNTAIN AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY BY LATER TUESDAY...WHEN PERIODS OF
MVFR COULD OCCUR MAINLY BLUE RIDGE WEST. OTHERWISE...VFR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY OUTSIDE OF ANY LATE DAY CONVECTION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS/PC
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...RAB/PC



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230536
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
136 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FOR SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE AND REMAIN
JUST OFF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT STRETCHING SWWD OVER NRN VA.
THIS FRNT WILL DROP THRU THE AREA LATE THIS EVENG AND
OVERNIGHT...WITHOUT ANY PCPN AND ONLY A FEW CLOUDS AS THE COLUMN
REMAINS QUITE DRY (1000-500 MB RH LESS THAN 40%). SFC HI PRES WILL
THEN QUICKLY BLD IN BEHIND THE FRNT LATE TNGT. CALM WINDS THIS
EVENING BECOME NLY 5-10 KT BEHIND THE FRONT...SLOWING THE TEMP
DESCENT. LOWS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S (~-1 STD DEV).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY DRY WX WITH INCREASING
TEMPS AND HUMIDITY THRU THE PERIOD. SFC HI PRES WILL CENTER
DIRECTLY OVER THE MID ATLC BY MIDDAY SAT...THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE
LATE IN THE DAY AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. LIKE FRI...TEMPS WILL
ONLY MAX OUT IN THE LO TO MID 70S UNDER A SUNNY SKY.

WARMING TREND BEGINS SUN AND MON AS SLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH THE HI
OFFSHORE AND AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE ERN
SEABOARD. EXPECT HI TEMPS SUN IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S...AND THE
MID TO UPR 80S MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE CONTINUES TO APPEAR TO BE DOMINATED WITH A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SE/MID ATLC STATES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LATEST ECMWF/GFS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH
THE GFS STILL A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE AT BREAKING DOWN/WEAKENING
THE RIDGE BY MID TO LATE WEEK (THOUGH NOT TO THE EXTENT IT HAD
BEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS). MODELS ALSO DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH
RESPECT TO 850 MB TEMPERATURES...THE ECMWF REMAINING WARMER BY
ABOUT 2-3 C THAN THE GFS. OVERALL...THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO WARM
/SUMMER- LIKE WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH VERY MINIMAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN...LIMITED TO ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY
LATE AFTN OR EVENING TSTMS DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
DRIFTING INTO THE REGION. HAVE DROPPED POPS ALTOGETHER FOR MON
NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY WED...THEN WILL HAVE JUST 20% POP OVER JUST
THE FAR NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON WED...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE
LATE AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THU/FRI (UP TO 30% FAR
NW). INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH TEMPS WARMING BACK TO THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS
(GFS HIGHS ONLY IN MID 80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS
PATTERN). CONDITIONS WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE
COAST. LOWS AVG IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO SAG SWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AS OF 23/0500Z AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SSEWD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...CROSSING ALL TERMINALS. ANY GUSTINESS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE LIMITED TO KORF...WHERE NORTH
WINDS OFF CHES BAY WILL OCCUR CLOSER TO DAYBREAK (OR BTWN
23/0900-1100Z). OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
BY THIS AFTN AND REMAINS INVOF THE COAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND REMAINING ANCHORED OFF THE COAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS DIMINISHING ACRS THE AREA THIS AFTN...CURRENT CONDS ARE
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ALL ZONES. HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
APPROACHING THE NRN MID ATLC REGION...AND WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH
THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT. NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS WHAT OCCURRED
LAST NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK...BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO YIELD LOW END SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE BAY AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
11-14Z/FRI MORNING. HAVE RAISED ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA HEADLINES FOR
THE BAY...BEGINNING AT 05Z/FRI...AND LASTING THROUGH 11Z N OF NEW
PT COMFORT...AND THROUGH 14Z SOUTH OF NEW PT COMFORT (05Z MAY BE A
TAD EARLY FOR THESE LOWER BAY ZONES BUT DID NOT WANT TO GET TOO
SPECIFIC ATTM). DID NOT RAISE ANY HEADLINES FOR OTHER ZONES AS IT
LOOKS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL EVEN FOR THE BAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KT MAY AFFECT THE RIVERS. SEAS ON THE COASTAL WATERS
BUILD TO 4 FT IF THAT (AND THIS IS GOING WELL ABOVE WAVE WATCH
WHICH KEEPS SEAS CAPPED AT 2-3 FT).

PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS QUICKLY SATURDAY AND EXPECT WINDS TO
AGAIN DROP OFF QUICKLY BY LATE MORNING AS THE HIGH BUILDS
OVERHEAD. WINDS SHIFT TO THE S/SE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. WINDS SHOULD THEN FOLLOW A DIURNAL
PATTERN...INCREASING A BIT MAINLY IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING/EARLY
AM HRS LATE SUN THROUGH MIDWEEK AS UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS WITH SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL GENLY REMAIN
SUB-SCA THOUGH SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY GUST TO NEAR 20 KT IN THE BAY
DURING THIS LATE AFTN/EVENING/EARLY AM TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630-
     631.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS/SAM
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...LKB



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230536
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
136 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FOR SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE AND REMAIN
JUST OFF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT STRETCHING SWWD OVER NRN VA.
THIS FRNT WILL DROP THRU THE AREA LATE THIS EVENG AND
OVERNIGHT...WITHOUT ANY PCPN AND ONLY A FEW CLOUDS AS THE COLUMN
REMAINS QUITE DRY (1000-500 MB RH LESS THAN 40%). SFC HI PRES WILL
THEN QUICKLY BLD IN BEHIND THE FRNT LATE TNGT. CALM WINDS THIS
EVENING BECOME NLY 5-10 KT BEHIND THE FRONT...SLOWING THE TEMP
DESCENT. LOWS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S (~-1 STD DEV).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY DRY WX WITH INCREASING
TEMPS AND HUMIDITY THRU THE PERIOD. SFC HI PRES WILL CENTER
DIRECTLY OVER THE MID ATLC BY MIDDAY SAT...THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE
LATE IN THE DAY AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. LIKE FRI...TEMPS WILL
ONLY MAX OUT IN THE LO TO MID 70S UNDER A SUNNY SKY.

WARMING TREND BEGINS SUN AND MON AS SLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH THE HI
OFFSHORE AND AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE ERN
SEABOARD. EXPECT HI TEMPS SUN IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S...AND THE
MID TO UPR 80S MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE CONTINUES TO APPEAR TO BE DOMINATED WITH A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SE/MID ATLC STATES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LATEST ECMWF/GFS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH
THE GFS STILL A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE AT BREAKING DOWN/WEAKENING
THE RIDGE BY MID TO LATE WEEK (THOUGH NOT TO THE EXTENT IT HAD
BEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS). MODELS ALSO DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH
RESPECT TO 850 MB TEMPERATURES...THE ECMWF REMAINING WARMER BY
ABOUT 2-3 C THAN THE GFS. OVERALL...THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO WARM
/SUMMER- LIKE WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH VERY MINIMAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN...LIMITED TO ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY
LATE AFTN OR EVENING TSTMS DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
DRIFTING INTO THE REGION. HAVE DROPPED POPS ALTOGETHER FOR MON
NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY WED...THEN WILL HAVE JUST 20% POP OVER JUST
THE FAR NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON WED...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE
LATE AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THU/FRI (UP TO 30% FAR
NW). INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH TEMPS WARMING BACK TO THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS
(GFS HIGHS ONLY IN MID 80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS
PATTERN). CONDITIONS WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE
COAST. LOWS AVG IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO SAG SWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AS OF 23/0500Z AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SSEWD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...CROSSING ALL TERMINALS. ANY GUSTINESS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE LIMITED TO KORF...WHERE NORTH
WINDS OFF CHES BAY WILL OCCUR CLOSER TO DAYBREAK (OR BTWN
23/0900-1100Z). OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
BY THIS AFTN AND REMAINS INVOF THE COAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND REMAINING ANCHORED OFF THE COAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS DIMINISHING ACRS THE AREA THIS AFTN...CURRENT CONDS ARE
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ALL ZONES. HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
APPROACHING THE NRN MID ATLC REGION...AND WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH
THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT. NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS WHAT OCCURRED
LAST NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK...BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO YIELD LOW END SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE BAY AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
11-14Z/FRI MORNING. HAVE RAISED ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA HEADLINES FOR
THE BAY...BEGINNING AT 05Z/FRI...AND LASTING THROUGH 11Z N OF NEW
PT COMFORT...AND THROUGH 14Z SOUTH OF NEW PT COMFORT (05Z MAY BE A
TAD EARLY FOR THESE LOWER BAY ZONES BUT DID NOT WANT TO GET TOO
SPECIFIC ATTM). DID NOT RAISE ANY HEADLINES FOR OTHER ZONES AS IT
LOOKS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL EVEN FOR THE BAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KT MAY AFFECT THE RIVERS. SEAS ON THE COASTAL WATERS
BUILD TO 4 FT IF THAT (AND THIS IS GOING WELL ABOVE WAVE WATCH
WHICH KEEPS SEAS CAPPED AT 2-3 FT).

PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS QUICKLY SATURDAY AND EXPECT WINDS TO
AGAIN DROP OFF QUICKLY BY LATE MORNING AS THE HIGH BUILDS
OVERHEAD. WINDS SHIFT TO THE S/SE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. WINDS SHOULD THEN FOLLOW A DIURNAL
PATTERN...INCREASING A BIT MAINLY IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING/EARLY
AM HRS LATE SUN THROUGH MIDWEEK AS UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS WITH SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL GENLY REMAIN
SUB-SCA THOUGH SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY GUST TO NEAR 20 KT IN THE BAY
DURING THIS LATE AFTN/EVENING/EARLY AM TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630-
     631.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS/SAM
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...LKB




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230536
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
136 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FOR SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE AND REMAIN
JUST OFF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT STRETCHING SWWD OVER NRN VA.
THIS FRNT WILL DROP THRU THE AREA LATE THIS EVENG AND
OVERNIGHT...WITHOUT ANY PCPN AND ONLY A FEW CLOUDS AS THE COLUMN
REMAINS QUITE DRY (1000-500 MB RH LESS THAN 40%). SFC HI PRES WILL
THEN QUICKLY BLD IN BEHIND THE FRNT LATE TNGT. CALM WINDS THIS
EVENING BECOME NLY 5-10 KT BEHIND THE FRONT...SLOWING THE TEMP
DESCENT. LOWS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S (~-1 STD DEV).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY DRY WX WITH INCREASING
TEMPS AND HUMIDITY THRU THE PERIOD. SFC HI PRES WILL CENTER
DIRECTLY OVER THE MID ATLC BY MIDDAY SAT...THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE
LATE IN THE DAY AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. LIKE FRI...TEMPS WILL
ONLY MAX OUT IN THE LO TO MID 70S UNDER A SUNNY SKY.

WARMING TREND BEGINS SUN AND MON AS SLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH THE HI
OFFSHORE AND AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE ERN
SEABOARD. EXPECT HI TEMPS SUN IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S...AND THE
MID TO UPR 80S MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE CONTINUES TO APPEAR TO BE DOMINATED WITH A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SE/MID ATLC STATES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LATEST ECMWF/GFS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH
THE GFS STILL A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE AT BREAKING DOWN/WEAKENING
THE RIDGE BY MID TO LATE WEEK (THOUGH NOT TO THE EXTENT IT HAD
BEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS). MODELS ALSO DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH
RESPECT TO 850 MB TEMPERATURES...THE ECMWF REMAINING WARMER BY
ABOUT 2-3 C THAN THE GFS. OVERALL...THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO WARM
/SUMMER- LIKE WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH VERY MINIMAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN...LIMITED TO ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY
LATE AFTN OR EVENING TSTMS DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
DRIFTING INTO THE REGION. HAVE DROPPED POPS ALTOGETHER FOR MON
NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY WED...THEN WILL HAVE JUST 20% POP OVER JUST
THE FAR NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON WED...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE
LATE AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THU/FRI (UP TO 30% FAR
NW). INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH TEMPS WARMING BACK TO THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS
(GFS HIGHS ONLY IN MID 80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS
PATTERN). CONDITIONS WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE
COAST. LOWS AVG IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO SAG SWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AS OF 23/0500Z AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SSEWD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...CROSSING ALL TERMINALS. ANY GUSTINESS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE LIMITED TO KORF...WHERE NORTH
WINDS OFF CHES BAY WILL OCCUR CLOSER TO DAYBREAK (OR BTWN
23/0900-1100Z). OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
BY THIS AFTN AND REMAINS INVOF THE COAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND REMAINING ANCHORED OFF THE COAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS DIMINISHING ACRS THE AREA THIS AFTN...CURRENT CONDS ARE
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ALL ZONES. HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
APPROACHING THE NRN MID ATLC REGION...AND WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH
THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT. NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS WHAT OCCURRED
LAST NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK...BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO YIELD LOW END SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE BAY AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
11-14Z/FRI MORNING. HAVE RAISED ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA HEADLINES FOR
THE BAY...BEGINNING AT 05Z/FRI...AND LASTING THROUGH 11Z N OF NEW
PT COMFORT...AND THROUGH 14Z SOUTH OF NEW PT COMFORT (05Z MAY BE A
TAD EARLY FOR THESE LOWER BAY ZONES BUT DID NOT WANT TO GET TOO
SPECIFIC ATTM). DID NOT RAISE ANY HEADLINES FOR OTHER ZONES AS IT
LOOKS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL EVEN FOR THE BAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KT MAY AFFECT THE RIVERS. SEAS ON THE COASTAL WATERS
BUILD TO 4 FT IF THAT (AND THIS IS GOING WELL ABOVE WAVE WATCH
WHICH KEEPS SEAS CAPPED AT 2-3 FT).

PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS QUICKLY SATURDAY AND EXPECT WINDS TO
AGAIN DROP OFF QUICKLY BY LATE MORNING AS THE HIGH BUILDS
OVERHEAD. WINDS SHIFT TO THE S/SE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. WINDS SHOULD THEN FOLLOW A DIURNAL
PATTERN...INCREASING A BIT MAINLY IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING/EARLY
AM HRS LATE SUN THROUGH MIDWEEK AS UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS WITH SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL GENLY REMAIN
SUB-SCA THOUGH SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY GUST TO NEAR 20 KT IN THE BAY
DURING THIS LATE AFTN/EVENING/EARLY AM TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630-
     631.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS/SAM
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...LKB



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230536
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
136 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FOR SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE AND REMAIN
JUST OFF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT STRETCHING SWWD OVER NRN VA.
THIS FRNT WILL DROP THRU THE AREA LATE THIS EVENG AND
OVERNIGHT...WITHOUT ANY PCPN AND ONLY A FEW CLOUDS AS THE COLUMN
REMAINS QUITE DRY (1000-500 MB RH LESS THAN 40%). SFC HI PRES WILL
THEN QUICKLY BLD IN BEHIND THE FRNT LATE TNGT. CALM WINDS THIS
EVENING BECOME NLY 5-10 KT BEHIND THE FRONT...SLOWING THE TEMP
DESCENT. LOWS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S (~-1 STD DEV).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY DRY WX WITH INCREASING
TEMPS AND HUMIDITY THRU THE PERIOD. SFC HI PRES WILL CENTER
DIRECTLY OVER THE MID ATLC BY MIDDAY SAT...THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE
LATE IN THE DAY AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. LIKE FRI...TEMPS WILL
ONLY MAX OUT IN THE LO TO MID 70S UNDER A SUNNY SKY.

WARMING TREND BEGINS SUN AND MON AS SLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH THE HI
OFFSHORE AND AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE ERN
SEABOARD. EXPECT HI TEMPS SUN IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S...AND THE
MID TO UPR 80S MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE CONTINUES TO APPEAR TO BE DOMINATED WITH A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SE/MID ATLC STATES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LATEST ECMWF/GFS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH
THE GFS STILL A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE AT BREAKING DOWN/WEAKENING
THE RIDGE BY MID TO LATE WEEK (THOUGH NOT TO THE EXTENT IT HAD
BEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS). MODELS ALSO DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH
RESPECT TO 850 MB TEMPERATURES...THE ECMWF REMAINING WARMER BY
ABOUT 2-3 C THAN THE GFS. OVERALL...THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO WARM
/SUMMER- LIKE WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH VERY MINIMAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN...LIMITED TO ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY
LATE AFTN OR EVENING TSTMS DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
DRIFTING INTO THE REGION. HAVE DROPPED POPS ALTOGETHER FOR MON
NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY WED...THEN WILL HAVE JUST 20% POP OVER JUST
THE FAR NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON WED...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE
LATE AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THU/FRI (UP TO 30% FAR
NW). INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH TEMPS WARMING BACK TO THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS
(GFS HIGHS ONLY IN MID 80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS
PATTERN). CONDITIONS WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE
COAST. LOWS AVG IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO SAG SWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AS OF 23/0500Z AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SSEWD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...CROSSING ALL TERMINALS. ANY GUSTINESS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE LIMITED TO KORF...WHERE NORTH
WINDS OFF CHES BAY WILL OCCUR CLOSER TO DAYBREAK (OR BTWN
23/0900-1100Z). OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
BY THIS AFTN AND REMAINS INVOF THE COAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND REMAINING ANCHORED OFF THE COAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS DIMINISHING ACRS THE AREA THIS AFTN...CURRENT CONDS ARE
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ALL ZONES. HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
APPROACHING THE NRN MID ATLC REGION...AND WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH
THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT. NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS WHAT OCCURRED
LAST NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK...BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO YIELD LOW END SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE BAY AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
11-14Z/FRI MORNING. HAVE RAISED ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA HEADLINES FOR
THE BAY...BEGINNING AT 05Z/FRI...AND LASTING THROUGH 11Z N OF NEW
PT COMFORT...AND THROUGH 14Z SOUTH OF NEW PT COMFORT (05Z MAY BE A
TAD EARLY FOR THESE LOWER BAY ZONES BUT DID NOT WANT TO GET TOO
SPECIFIC ATTM). DID NOT RAISE ANY HEADLINES FOR OTHER ZONES AS IT
LOOKS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL EVEN FOR THE BAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KT MAY AFFECT THE RIVERS. SEAS ON THE COASTAL WATERS
BUILD TO 4 FT IF THAT (AND THIS IS GOING WELL ABOVE WAVE WATCH
WHICH KEEPS SEAS CAPPED AT 2-3 FT).

PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS QUICKLY SATURDAY AND EXPECT WINDS TO
AGAIN DROP OFF QUICKLY BY LATE MORNING AS THE HIGH BUILDS
OVERHEAD. WINDS SHIFT TO THE S/SE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. WINDS SHOULD THEN FOLLOW A DIURNAL
PATTERN...INCREASING A BIT MAINLY IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING/EARLY
AM HRS LATE SUN THROUGH MIDWEEK AS UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS WITH SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL GENLY REMAIN
SUB-SCA THOUGH SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY GUST TO NEAR 20 KT IN THE BAY
DURING THIS LATE AFTN/EVENING/EARLY AM TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630-
     631.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS/SAM
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...LKB



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230536
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
136 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FOR SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE AND REMAIN
JUST OFF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT STRETCHING SWWD OVER NRN VA.
THIS FRNT WILL DROP THRU THE AREA LATE THIS EVENG AND
OVERNIGHT...WITHOUT ANY PCPN AND ONLY A FEW CLOUDS AS THE COLUMN
REMAINS QUITE DRY (1000-500 MB RH LESS THAN 40%). SFC HI PRES WILL
THEN QUICKLY BLD IN BEHIND THE FRNT LATE TNGT. CALM WINDS THIS
EVENING BECOME NLY 5-10 KT BEHIND THE FRONT...SLOWING THE TEMP
DESCENT. LOWS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S (~-1 STD DEV).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY DRY WX WITH INCREASING
TEMPS AND HUMIDITY THRU THE PERIOD. SFC HI PRES WILL CENTER
DIRECTLY OVER THE MID ATLC BY MIDDAY SAT...THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE
LATE IN THE DAY AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. LIKE FRI...TEMPS WILL
ONLY MAX OUT IN THE LO TO MID 70S UNDER A SUNNY SKY.

WARMING TREND BEGINS SUN AND MON AS SLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH THE HI
OFFSHORE AND AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE ERN
SEABOARD. EXPECT HI TEMPS SUN IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S...AND THE
MID TO UPR 80S MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE CONTINUES TO APPEAR TO BE DOMINATED WITH A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SE/MID ATLC STATES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LATEST ECMWF/GFS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH
THE GFS STILL A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE AT BREAKING DOWN/WEAKENING
THE RIDGE BY MID TO LATE WEEK (THOUGH NOT TO THE EXTENT IT HAD
BEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS). MODELS ALSO DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH
RESPECT TO 850 MB TEMPERATURES...THE ECMWF REMAINING WARMER BY
ABOUT 2-3 C THAN THE GFS. OVERALL...THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO WARM
/SUMMER- LIKE WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH VERY MINIMAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN...LIMITED TO ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY
LATE AFTN OR EVENING TSTMS DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
DRIFTING INTO THE REGION. HAVE DROPPED POPS ALTOGETHER FOR MON
NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY WED...THEN WILL HAVE JUST 20% POP OVER JUST
THE FAR NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON WED...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE
LATE AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THU/FRI (UP TO 30% FAR
NW). INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH TEMPS WARMING BACK TO THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS
(GFS HIGHS ONLY IN MID 80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS
PATTERN). CONDITIONS WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE
COAST. LOWS AVG IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO SAG SWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AS OF 23/0500Z AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SSEWD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...CROSSING ALL TERMINALS. ANY GUSTINESS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE LIMITED TO KORF...WHERE NORTH
WINDS OFF CHES BAY WILL OCCUR CLOSER TO DAYBREAK (OR BTWN
23/0900-1100Z). OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
BY THIS AFTN AND REMAINS INVOF THE COAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND REMAINING ANCHORED OFF THE COAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS DIMINISHING ACRS THE AREA THIS AFTN...CURRENT CONDS ARE
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ALL ZONES. HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
APPROACHING THE NRN MID ATLC REGION...AND WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH
THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT. NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS WHAT OCCURRED
LAST NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK...BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO YIELD LOW END SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE BAY AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
11-14Z/FRI MORNING. HAVE RAISED ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA HEADLINES FOR
THE BAY...BEGINNING AT 05Z/FRI...AND LASTING THROUGH 11Z N OF NEW
PT COMFORT...AND THROUGH 14Z SOUTH OF NEW PT COMFORT (05Z MAY BE A
TAD EARLY FOR THESE LOWER BAY ZONES BUT DID NOT WANT TO GET TOO
SPECIFIC ATTM). DID NOT RAISE ANY HEADLINES FOR OTHER ZONES AS IT
LOOKS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL EVEN FOR THE BAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KT MAY AFFECT THE RIVERS. SEAS ON THE COASTAL WATERS
BUILD TO 4 FT IF THAT (AND THIS IS GOING WELL ABOVE WAVE WATCH
WHICH KEEPS SEAS CAPPED AT 2-3 FT).

PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS QUICKLY SATURDAY AND EXPECT WINDS TO
AGAIN DROP OFF QUICKLY BY LATE MORNING AS THE HIGH BUILDS
OVERHEAD. WINDS SHIFT TO THE S/SE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. WINDS SHOULD THEN FOLLOW A DIURNAL
PATTERN...INCREASING A BIT MAINLY IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING/EARLY
AM HRS LATE SUN THROUGH MIDWEEK AS UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS WITH SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL GENLY REMAIN
SUB-SCA THOUGH SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY GUST TO NEAR 20 KT IN THE BAY
DURING THIS LATE AFTN/EVENING/EARLY AM TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630-
     631.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS/SAM
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...LKB



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230536
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
136 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FOR SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE AND REMAIN
JUST OFF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT STRETCHING SWWD OVER NRN VA.
THIS FRNT WILL DROP THRU THE AREA LATE THIS EVENG AND
OVERNIGHT...WITHOUT ANY PCPN AND ONLY A FEW CLOUDS AS THE COLUMN
REMAINS QUITE DRY (1000-500 MB RH LESS THAN 40%). SFC HI PRES WILL
THEN QUICKLY BLD IN BEHIND THE FRNT LATE TNGT. CALM WINDS THIS
EVENING BECOME NLY 5-10 KT BEHIND THE FRONT...SLOWING THE TEMP
DESCENT. LOWS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S (~-1 STD DEV).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY DRY WX WITH INCREASING
TEMPS AND HUMIDITY THRU THE PERIOD. SFC HI PRES WILL CENTER
DIRECTLY OVER THE MID ATLC BY MIDDAY SAT...THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE
LATE IN THE DAY AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. LIKE FRI...TEMPS WILL
ONLY MAX OUT IN THE LO TO MID 70S UNDER A SUNNY SKY.

WARMING TREND BEGINS SUN AND MON AS SLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH THE HI
OFFSHORE AND AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE ERN
SEABOARD. EXPECT HI TEMPS SUN IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S...AND THE
MID TO UPR 80S MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE CONTINUES TO APPEAR TO BE DOMINATED WITH A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SE/MID ATLC STATES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LATEST ECMWF/GFS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH
THE GFS STILL A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE AT BREAKING DOWN/WEAKENING
THE RIDGE BY MID TO LATE WEEK (THOUGH NOT TO THE EXTENT IT HAD
BEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS). MODELS ALSO DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH
RESPECT TO 850 MB TEMPERATURES...THE ECMWF REMAINING WARMER BY
ABOUT 2-3 C THAN THE GFS. OVERALL...THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO WARM
/SUMMER- LIKE WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH VERY MINIMAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN...LIMITED TO ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY
LATE AFTN OR EVENING TSTMS DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
DRIFTING INTO THE REGION. HAVE DROPPED POPS ALTOGETHER FOR MON
NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY WED...THEN WILL HAVE JUST 20% POP OVER JUST
THE FAR NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON WED...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE
LATE AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THU/FRI (UP TO 30% FAR
NW). INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH TEMPS WARMING BACK TO THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS
(GFS HIGHS ONLY IN MID 80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS
PATTERN). CONDITIONS WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE
COAST. LOWS AVG IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO SAG SWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AS OF 23/0500Z AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SSEWD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...CROSSING ALL TERMINALS. ANY GUSTINESS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE LIMITED TO KORF...WHERE NORTH
WINDS OFF CHES BAY WILL OCCUR CLOSER TO DAYBREAK (OR BTWN
23/0900-1100Z). OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
BY THIS AFTN AND REMAINS INVOF THE COAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND REMAINING ANCHORED OFF THE COAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS DIMINISHING ACRS THE AREA THIS AFTN...CURRENT CONDS ARE
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ALL ZONES. HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
APPROACHING THE NRN MID ATLC REGION...AND WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH
THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT. NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS WHAT OCCURRED
LAST NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK...BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO YIELD LOW END SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE BAY AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
11-14Z/FRI MORNING. HAVE RAISED ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA HEADLINES FOR
THE BAY...BEGINNING AT 05Z/FRI...AND LASTING THROUGH 11Z N OF NEW
PT COMFORT...AND THROUGH 14Z SOUTH OF NEW PT COMFORT (05Z MAY BE A
TAD EARLY FOR THESE LOWER BAY ZONES BUT DID NOT WANT TO GET TOO
SPECIFIC ATTM). DID NOT RAISE ANY HEADLINES FOR OTHER ZONES AS IT
LOOKS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL EVEN FOR THE BAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KT MAY AFFECT THE RIVERS. SEAS ON THE COASTAL WATERS
BUILD TO 4 FT IF THAT (AND THIS IS GOING WELL ABOVE WAVE WATCH
WHICH KEEPS SEAS CAPPED AT 2-3 FT).

PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS QUICKLY SATURDAY AND EXPECT WINDS TO
AGAIN DROP OFF QUICKLY BY LATE MORNING AS THE HIGH BUILDS
OVERHEAD. WINDS SHIFT TO THE S/SE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. WINDS SHOULD THEN FOLLOW A DIURNAL
PATTERN...INCREASING A BIT MAINLY IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING/EARLY
AM HRS LATE SUN THROUGH MIDWEEK AS UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS WITH SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL GENLY REMAIN
SUB-SCA THOUGH SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY GUST TO NEAR 20 KT IN THE BAY
DURING THIS LATE AFTN/EVENING/EARLY AM TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630-
     631.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS/SAM
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...LKB



000
FXUS61 KLWX 230254
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1054 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVERHEAD SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
SUNDAY AND REMAIN IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH MID- WEEK NEXT
WEEK WITH NOTICEABLY HOTTER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS RETURNING TO
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LTST SFC ANALY DEPICTS CDFNT DRAPED ACRS THE CWFA. ISOL SHRA FOUND
AT THE END OF THE DAY HV SINCE DSPTD W/ THE SETTING SUN. FOR THAT
MATTER...MOST OF THE CLDS HV EVAPORATED AS WELL. WL STILL BE
CARRYING A PD OF PTCLDY SKIES TO ACCOMPANY THE FNT...WHICH SHUD
CLR SRN ZNS BY OR SHORTLY AFTR MIDNGT.

WNDS HV ALSO STARTED TO RESPOND TO THE LOSS OF DIURNAL MIXING.
MOST OF THE HIER GUSTS SHUD CEASE BY 01 OR 02Z. HWVR...BASED ON
ANTICIPATED NIGHT TIME CAA...AM HESITANT ON ELIMINTING WINDS
COMPLETELY. THAT PLAYS INTO THE OVNGT TEMP FCST.

DRY AND CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE 40S
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE METROS/BAYSHORE SEEING THE 50S AND THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ALLGHENY FRONT SEEING THE MID-UPR 30S.
LTST LAMP DATA GENERALLY IN SYNCH W/ THESE THOUGHTS. DID MAKE A
CPL MINOR ADJUSTMENTS...MAINLY TO SHAVE ANTHR DEGF OR TWO OFF FOR
SITES WHERE CLIMO TENDS TO BE SHELTERED VLYS. HWVR...CONSIDERING
HOW LOW DEWPTS WL BE BY MRNG AND THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING FULL
DCPLG...DID NOT ADD ANYONE ELSE TO CURRENT FROST ADVY. IT REMAINS
IN PLACE FOR THE WRN FRINGE OF THE CWFA BTWN ALLEGANY AND PENDLTN
CNTYS.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY. NLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS
BELOW CLIMO IN THE UPPER 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THE RETURN FLOW WILL BE SLOW AND LOWS WILL
ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES MILDER ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS COMPARED TO
FRIDAY NIGHT. HUMIDITY WILL START TO COME BACK HOWEVER.
OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR AS HEIGHTS ALOFT BUILD
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING RIDGE.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST SUNDAY WITH THE
RETURN FLOW RESULTING IN A NOTICEABLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID DAY AS
COMPARED TO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE AROUND 10 DEGREES
WHILE DEW POINT RISE WILL BE MORE LIKE 20 DEGREES. SOME CLOUDS MAY
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AS WARM ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY ALOFT
ALONG THE TAIL END OF A WARM FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE BY TO OUR
NORTHWEST...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH HEIGHTS
CONTINUING TO BUILD ALOFT AHEAD OF THE STILL APPROACHING AND
BUILDING RIDGE AXIS.

CLOUDS WILL MAKE FOR A MUCH MILDER NIGHT ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT PASSES BY TO THE NORTH...BUT AGAIN NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. ON MONDAY THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH OR
SLIGHTLY EXCEED 90 DEGREES IN MANY AREAS. DEW POINTS STILL WON`T
BE TOO HIGH WITH READINGS PROBABLY STAYING IN THE UPPER 50S IN
MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT IT WILL STILL FEEL CONSIDERABLY MORE
SUMMER-LIKE THAN IT WILL ON SATURDAY. WITH THE RIDGE STILL
BUILDING OVERHEAD...AND DEW POINTS NOT ALL THAT HIGH JUST
YET...CONSENSUS APPEARS TO BE FAVORABLE FOR A STORM-FREE DAY SO
HAVE KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ECMWF 500 MB RIDGE OVER MID ATLANTIC REGION SLOWLY MOVING TO EAST
ALLOWING A SHORT WAVE TO AFFECT THE REGION THURSDAY. MOISTURE AND
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY INCREASE ON SOUTHWEST FLOW DURING THE
PERIOD. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WIND GUSTS /20 KT/ WL SUBSIDE BY 01 OR 02Z. NW WINDS WILL
CONT 10-15 KT...EVENTUALLY DIMINISHING TO 5-10KT OVNGT. NO CLDS OF
CONSEQUENCE...NOR ANY VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY. WINDS WL BE A NON-
FACTOR...LESS THAN 6 KT...AS THEY TRANSITION FM NLY TO SSWLY.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH NO
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THE RISK FOR STORMS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS INCREASE
INSTABILITY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HV DIMINISHED BELOW SCA CRITERIA ACROSS ALL WATERS ATTM.
HWVR...CDFNT ANALYZED TO BE JUST N OF THE MARINE AREA. CFP FOR THE
WATERS WL TRANSPIRE THRU ELY MRNG. PRIND A ZONE OF CAA BHD FNT WL
BRING A PD OF FVRBL MIXING SWD.

HV OPTED TO DROP THE SCA FOR BALT HARBOR/N OF POOLES ISL/MID-UPR
TIDAL PTMC /IT WAS GOING TO EXPIRE AT 11PM ANYWAYS..AND DONT HV
EVIDENCE TO EXTEND IT/...BUT LEFT THE REST IN PLACE. AM THINKING
THAT IN THE BROADER WATERWAYS THERE IS STILL A DECENT CHC AT
MEETING SCA CRITERIA ONCE AGN OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE NLY SURGE. DO
NOT HV THE SKILL TO TIME THESE INDIV ELEMENTS OF ABV AND BLO SCA
CRIT...SO WL COVER IT WITH ONE HEADLINE. SHUD BE ABLE TO TRIM SCA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AOB CURRENT 8AM EXPIRATION.

HIPRES MVS OVRHD SAT. WINDS SHUD HV DIMINISHED TO 5-10 KT BY
MID MRNG...AND WL CONT IN THAT RANGE THRU THE DAY WHILE BACKING
SW.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING FOR
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT DUE
TO THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW...BUT IT WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO
THE RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MDZ501.
VA...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ501-503-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ531>534-
     537-539>543.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HTS/HAS
NEAR TERM...HTS/HAS
SHORT TERM...RCM
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...HTS/HAS/RCM
MARINE...HTS/RCM



000
FXUS61 KLWX 230254
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1054 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVERHEAD SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
SUNDAY AND REMAIN IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH MID- WEEK NEXT
WEEK WITH NOTICEABLY HOTTER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS RETURNING TO
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LTST SFC ANALY DEPICTS CDFNT DRAPED ACRS THE CWFA. ISOL SHRA FOUND
AT THE END OF THE DAY HV SINCE DSPTD W/ THE SETTING SUN. FOR THAT
MATTER...MOST OF THE CLDS HV EVAPORATED AS WELL. WL STILL BE
CARRYING A PD OF PTCLDY SKIES TO ACCOMPANY THE FNT...WHICH SHUD
CLR SRN ZNS BY OR SHORTLY AFTR MIDNGT.

WNDS HV ALSO STARTED TO RESPOND TO THE LOSS OF DIURNAL MIXING.
MOST OF THE HIER GUSTS SHUD CEASE BY 01 OR 02Z. HWVR...BASED ON
ANTICIPATED NIGHT TIME CAA...AM HESITANT ON ELIMINTING WINDS
COMPLETELY. THAT PLAYS INTO THE OVNGT TEMP FCST.

DRY AND CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE 40S
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE METROS/BAYSHORE SEEING THE 50S AND THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ALLGHENY FRONT SEEING THE MID-UPR 30S.
LTST LAMP DATA GENERALLY IN SYNCH W/ THESE THOUGHTS. DID MAKE A
CPL MINOR ADJUSTMENTS...MAINLY TO SHAVE ANTHR DEGF OR TWO OFF FOR
SITES WHERE CLIMO TENDS TO BE SHELTERED VLYS. HWVR...CONSIDERING
HOW LOW DEWPTS WL BE BY MRNG AND THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING FULL
DCPLG...DID NOT ADD ANYONE ELSE TO CURRENT FROST ADVY. IT REMAINS
IN PLACE FOR THE WRN FRINGE OF THE CWFA BTWN ALLEGANY AND PENDLTN
CNTYS.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY. NLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS
BELOW CLIMO IN THE UPPER 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THE RETURN FLOW WILL BE SLOW AND LOWS WILL
ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES MILDER ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS COMPARED TO
FRIDAY NIGHT. HUMIDITY WILL START TO COME BACK HOWEVER.
OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR AS HEIGHTS ALOFT BUILD
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING RIDGE.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST SUNDAY WITH THE
RETURN FLOW RESULTING IN A NOTICEABLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID DAY AS
COMPARED TO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE AROUND 10 DEGREES
WHILE DEW POINT RISE WILL BE MORE LIKE 20 DEGREES. SOME CLOUDS MAY
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AS WARM ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY ALOFT
ALONG THE TAIL END OF A WARM FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE BY TO OUR
NORTHWEST...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH HEIGHTS
CONTINUING TO BUILD ALOFT AHEAD OF THE STILL APPROACHING AND
BUILDING RIDGE AXIS.

CLOUDS WILL MAKE FOR A MUCH MILDER NIGHT ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT PASSES BY TO THE NORTH...BUT AGAIN NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. ON MONDAY THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH OR
SLIGHTLY EXCEED 90 DEGREES IN MANY AREAS. DEW POINTS STILL WON`T
BE TOO HIGH WITH READINGS PROBABLY STAYING IN THE UPPER 50S IN
MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT IT WILL STILL FEEL CONSIDERABLY MORE
SUMMER-LIKE THAN IT WILL ON SATURDAY. WITH THE RIDGE STILL
BUILDING OVERHEAD...AND DEW POINTS NOT ALL THAT HIGH JUST
YET...CONSENSUS APPEARS TO BE FAVORABLE FOR A STORM-FREE DAY SO
HAVE KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ECMWF 500 MB RIDGE OVER MID ATLANTIC REGION SLOWLY MOVING TO EAST
ALLOWING A SHORT WAVE TO AFFECT THE REGION THURSDAY. MOISTURE AND
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY INCREASE ON SOUTHWEST FLOW DURING THE
PERIOD. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WIND GUSTS /20 KT/ WL SUBSIDE BY 01 OR 02Z. NW WINDS WILL
CONT 10-15 KT...EVENTUALLY DIMINISHING TO 5-10KT OVNGT. NO CLDS OF
CONSEQUENCE...NOR ANY VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY. WINDS WL BE A NON-
FACTOR...LESS THAN 6 KT...AS THEY TRANSITION FM NLY TO SSWLY.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH NO
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THE RISK FOR STORMS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS INCREASE
INSTABILITY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HV DIMINISHED BELOW SCA CRITERIA ACROSS ALL WATERS ATTM.
HWVR...CDFNT ANALYZED TO BE JUST N OF THE MARINE AREA. CFP FOR THE
WATERS WL TRANSPIRE THRU ELY MRNG. PRIND A ZONE OF CAA BHD FNT WL
BRING A PD OF FVRBL MIXING SWD.

HV OPTED TO DROP THE SCA FOR BALT HARBOR/N OF POOLES ISL/MID-UPR
TIDAL PTMC /IT WAS GOING TO EXPIRE AT 11PM ANYWAYS..AND DONT HV
EVIDENCE TO EXTEND IT/...BUT LEFT THE REST IN PLACE. AM THINKING
THAT IN THE BROADER WATERWAYS THERE IS STILL A DECENT CHC AT
MEETING SCA CRITERIA ONCE AGN OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE NLY SURGE. DO
NOT HV THE SKILL TO TIME THESE INDIV ELEMENTS OF ABV AND BLO SCA
CRIT...SO WL COVER IT WITH ONE HEADLINE. SHUD BE ABLE TO TRIM SCA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AOB CURRENT 8AM EXPIRATION.

HIPRES MVS OVRHD SAT. WINDS SHUD HV DIMINISHED TO 5-10 KT BY
MID MRNG...AND WL CONT IN THAT RANGE THRU THE DAY WHILE BACKING
SW.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING FOR
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT DUE
TO THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW...BUT IT WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO
THE RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MDZ501.
VA...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ501-503-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ531>534-
     537-539>543.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HTS/HAS
NEAR TERM...HTS/HAS
SHORT TERM...RCM
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...HTS/HAS/RCM
MARINE...HTS/RCM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230213
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1013 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FOR SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE AND REMAIN
JUST OFF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT STRETCHING SWWD OVER NRN VA.
THIS FRNT WILL DROP THRU THE AREA LATE THIS EVENG AND
OVERNIGHT...WITHOUT ANY PCPN AND ONLY A FEW CLOUDS AS THE COLUMN
REMAINS QUITE DRY (1000-500 MB RH LESS THAN 40%). SFC HI PRES WILL
THEN QUICKLY BLD IN BEHIND THE FRNT LATE TNGT. CALM WINDS THIS
EVENING BECOME NLY 5-10 KT BEHIND THE FRONT...SLOWING THE TEMP
DESCENT. LOWS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S (~-1 STD DEV).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY DRY WX WITH INCREASING
TEMPS AND HUMIDITY THRU THE PERIOD. SFC HI PRES WILL CENTER
DIRECTLY OVER THE MID ATLC BY MIDDAY SAT...THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE
LATE IN THE DAY AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. LIKE FRI...TEMPS WILL
ONLY MAX OUT IN THE LO TO MID 70S UNDER A SUNNY SKY.

WARMING TREND BEGINS SUN AND MON AS SLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH THE HI
OFFSHORE AND AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE ERN
SEABOARD. EXPECT HI TEMPS SUN IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S...AND THE
MID TO UPR 80S MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE CONTINUES TO APPEAR TO BE DOMINATED WITH A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SE/MID ATLC STATES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LATEST ECMWF/GFS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH
THE GFS STILL A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE AT BREAKING DOWN/WEAKENING
THE RIDGE BY MID TO LATE WEEK (THOUGH NOT TO THE EXTENT IT HAD
BEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS). MODELS ALSO DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH
RESPECT TO 850 MB TEMPERATURES...THE ECMWF REMAINING WARMER BY
ABOUT 2-3 C THAN THE GFS. OVERALL...THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO WARM
/SUMMER- LIKE WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH VERY MINIMAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN...LIMITED TO ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY
LATE AFTN OR EVENING TSTMS DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
DRIFTING INTO THE REGION. HAVE DROPPED POPS ALTOGETHER FOR MON
NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY WED...THEN WILL HAVE JUST 20% POP OVER JUST
THE FAR NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON WED...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE
LATE AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THU/FRI (UP TO 30% FAR
NW). INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH TEMPS WARMING BACK TO THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS
(GFS HIGHS ONLY IN MID 80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS
PATTERN). CONDITIONS WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE
COAST. LOWS AVG IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD TOWARD THE REGION WILL CROSS ALL
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...REACHING KSBY FIRST AND KECG LAST. ANY
GUSTINESS ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
KORF...AND HAVE INDICATED TEMPO GUSTS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS LATE
TONIGHT. CLOUD CEILINGS SHOULD BE IN THE 6KFT TO 9KFT RANGE...AND
NO WORSE THAN BKN FOR A COUPLE HOURS AROUND FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN VICINITY OF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND REMAINING ANCHORED OFF THE COAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS MOST IF NOT
ALL THE TIME DURING THAT PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS DIMINISHING ACRS THE AREA THIS AFTN...CURRENT CONDS ARE
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ALL ZONES. HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
APPROACHING THE NRN MID ATLC REGION...AND WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH
THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT. NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS WHAT OCCURRED
LAST NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK...BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO YIELD LOW END SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE BAY AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
11-14Z/FRI MORNING. HAVE RAISED ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA HEADLINES FOR
THE BAY...BEGINNING AT 05Z/FRI...AND LASTING THROUGH 11Z N OF NEW
PT COMFORT...AND THROUGH 14Z SOUTH OF NEW PT COMFORT (05Z MAY BE A
TAD EARLY FOR THESE LOWER BAY ZONES BUT DID NOT WANT TO GET TOO
SPECIFIC ATTM). DID NOT RAISE ANY HEADLINES FOR OTHER ZONES AS IT
LOOKS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL EVEN FOR THE BAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KT MAY AFFECT THE RIVERS. SEAS ON THE COASTAL WATERS
BUILD TO 4 FT IF THAT (AND THIS IS GOING WELL ABOVE WAVE WATCH
WHICH KEEPS SEAS CAPPED AT 2-3 FT).

PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS QUICKLY SATURDAY AND EXPECT WINDS TO
AGAIN DROP OFF QUICKLY BY LATE MORNING AS THE HIGH BUILDS
OVERHEAD. WINDS SHIFT TO THE S/SE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. WINDS SHOULD THEN FOLLOW A DIURNAL
PATTERN...INCREASING A BIT MAINLY IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING/EARLY
AM HRS LATE SUN THROUGH MIDWEEK AS UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS WITH SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL GENLY REMAIN
SUB-SCA THOUGH SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY GUST TO NEAR 20 KT IN THE BAY
DURING THIS LATE AFTN/EVENING/EARLY AM TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ630-631.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS/SAM
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...AJZ/WRS
MARINE...LKB



000
FXUS61 KLWX 230053
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
853 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVERHEAD SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
SUNDAY AND REMAIN IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH MID- WEEK NEXT
WEEK WITH NOTICEABLY HOTTER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS RETURNING TO
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LTST SFC ANALY DEPICTS CDFNT DRAPED ACRS THE CWFA. ISOL SHRA FOUND
AT THE END OF THE DAY HV SINCE DSPTD W/ THE SETTING SUN. FOR THAT
MATTER...MOST OF THE CLDS HV EVAPORATED AS WELL. WL STILL BE
CARRYING A PD OF PTCLDY SKIES TO ACCOMPANY THE FNT...WHICH SHUD
CLR SRN ZNS BY OR SHORTLY AFTR MIDNGT.

WNDS HV ALSO STARTED TO RESPOND TO THE LOSS OF DIURNAL MIXING.
MOST OF THE HIER GUSTS SHUD CEASE BY 01 OR 02Z. HWVR...BASED ON
ANTICIPATED NIGHT TIME CAA...AM HESITANT ON ELIMINTING WINDS
COMPLETELY. THAT PLAYS INTO THE OVNGT TEMP FCST.

DRY AND CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE 40S
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE METROS/BAYSHORE SEEING THE 50S AND THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ALLGHENY FRONT SEEING THE MID-UPR 30S.
LTST LAMP DATA GENERALLY IN SYNCH W/ THESE THOUGHTS. DID MAKE A
CPL MINOR ADJUSTMENTS...MAINLY TO SHAVE ANTHR DEGF OR TWO OFF FOR
SITES WHERE CLIMO TENDS TO BE SHELTERED VLYS. HWVR...CONSIDERING
HOW LOW DEWPTS WL BE BY MRNG AND THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING FULL
DCPLG...DID NOT ADD ANYONE ELSE TO CURRENT FROST ADVY. IT REMAINS
IN PLACE FOR THE WRN FRINGE OF THE CWFA BTWN ALLEGANY AND PENDLTN
CNTYS.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY. NLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS
BELOW CLIMO IN THE UPPER 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THE RETURN FLOW WILL BE SLOW AND LOWS WILL
ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES MILDER ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS COMPARED TO
FRIDAY NIGHT. HUMIDITY WILL START TO COME BACK HOWEVER.
OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR AS HEIGHTS ALOFT BUILD
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING RIDGE.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST SUNDAY WITH THE
RETURN FLOW RESULTING IN A NOTICEABLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID DAY AS
COMPARED TO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE AROUND 10 DEGREES
WHILE DEW POINT RISE WILL BE MORE LIKE 20 DEGREES. SOME CLOUDS MAY
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AS WARM ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY ALOFT
ALONG THE TAIL END OF A WARM FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE BY TO OUR
NORTHWEST...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH HEIGHTS
CONTINUING TO BUILD ALOFT AHEAD OF THE STILL APPROACHING AND
BUILDING RIDGE AXIS.

CLOUDS WILL MAKE FOR A MUCH MILDER NIGHT ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT PASSES BY TO THE NORTH...BUT AGAIN NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. ON MONDAY THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH OR
SLIGHTLY EXCEED 90 DEGREES IN MANY AREAS. DEW POINTS STILL WON`T
BE TOO HIGH WITH READINGS PROBABLY STAYING IN THE UPPER 50S IN
MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT IT WILL STILL FEEL CONSIDERABLY MORE
SUMMER-LIKE THAN IT WILL ON SATURDAY. WITH THE RIDGE STILL
BUILDING OVERHEAD...AND DEW POINTS NOT ALL THAT HIGH JUST
YET...CONSENSUS APPEARS TO BE FAVORABLE FOR A STORM-FREE DAY SO
HAVE KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ECMWF 500 MB RIDGE OVER MID ATLANTIC REGION SLOWLY MOVING TO EAST
ALLOWING A SHORT WAVE TO AFFECT THE REGION THURSDAY. MOISTURE AND
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY INCREASE ON SOUTHWEST FLOW DURING THE
PERIOD. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WIND GUSTS /20 KT/ WL SUBSIDE BY 01 OR 02Z. NW WINDS WILL
CONT 10-15 KT...EVENTUALLY DIMINISHING TO 5-10KT OVNGT. NO CLDS OF
CONSEQUENCE...NOR ANY VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY. WINDS WL BE A NON-
FACTOR...LESS THAN 6 KT...AS THEY TRANSITION FM NLY TO SSWLY.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH NO
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THE RISK FOR STORMS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS INCREASE
INSTABILITY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS STRONGER IN NRN BAY AND UPR TIDAL PTMC ATTM THAN THEY ARE ON
THE LWR WATERS. SCA CRITERIA BEING MET IN THE FORMER LOCATIONS.
HWVR...CDFNT CROSSING WATERS THRU ELY MRNG WL BRING A ZONE OF
FVRBL MIXING SWD. FOR THAT REASON...WL LEAVE SCA IN PLACE AS IS.
ADVY EXPIRES FOR NRN-MOST WATERS AT 11PM. BY THEN...XPCT TO BE
MEETING SCA CRITERIA FURTHER S. SHUD BE ABLE TO TRIM SCA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA AOB CURRENT 8AM EXPIRATION.

HIPRES MVS OVRHD SAT. WINDS SHUD HV DIMINISHED TO 5-10 KT BY
MID MRNG...AND WL CONT IN THAT RANGE THRU THE DAY WHILE BACKING
SW.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING FOR
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT DUE
TO THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW...BUT IT WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO
THE RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MDZ501.
VA...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     WVZ501-503-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ531>534-
     537-539>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     535-536-538.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS/HAS
NEAR TERM...HTS/HAS
SHORT TERM...RCM
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...HTS/HAS/RCM
MARINE...HTS/RCM



000
FXUS61 KLWX 230053
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
853 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVERHEAD SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
SUNDAY AND REMAIN IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH MID- WEEK NEXT
WEEK WITH NOTICEABLY HOTTER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS RETURNING TO
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LTST SFC ANALY DEPICTS CDFNT DRAPED ACRS THE CWFA. ISOL SHRA FOUND
AT THE END OF THE DAY HV SINCE DSPTD W/ THE SETTING SUN. FOR THAT
MATTER...MOST OF THE CLDS HV EVAPORATED AS WELL. WL STILL BE
CARRYING A PD OF PTCLDY SKIES TO ACCOMPANY THE FNT...WHICH SHUD
CLR SRN ZNS BY OR SHORTLY AFTR MIDNGT.

WNDS HV ALSO STARTED TO RESPOND TO THE LOSS OF DIURNAL MIXING.
MOST OF THE HIER GUSTS SHUD CEASE BY 01 OR 02Z. HWVR...BASED ON
ANTICIPATED NIGHT TIME CAA...AM HESITANT ON ELIMINTING WINDS
COMPLETELY. THAT PLAYS INTO THE OVNGT TEMP FCST.

DRY AND CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE 40S
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE METROS/BAYSHORE SEEING THE 50S AND THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ALLGHENY FRONT SEEING THE MID-UPR 30S.
LTST LAMP DATA GENERALLY IN SYNCH W/ THESE THOUGHTS. DID MAKE A
CPL MINOR ADJUSTMENTS...MAINLY TO SHAVE ANTHR DEGF OR TWO OFF FOR
SITES WHERE CLIMO TENDS TO BE SHELTERED VLYS. HWVR...CONSIDERING
HOW LOW DEWPTS WL BE BY MRNG AND THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING FULL
DCPLG...DID NOT ADD ANYONE ELSE TO CURRENT FROST ADVY. IT REMAINS
IN PLACE FOR THE WRN FRINGE OF THE CWFA BTWN ALLEGANY AND PENDLTN
CNTYS.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY. NLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS
BELOW CLIMO IN THE UPPER 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THE RETURN FLOW WILL BE SLOW AND LOWS WILL
ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES MILDER ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS COMPARED TO
FRIDAY NIGHT. HUMIDITY WILL START TO COME BACK HOWEVER.
OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR AS HEIGHTS ALOFT BUILD
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING RIDGE.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST SUNDAY WITH THE
RETURN FLOW RESULTING IN A NOTICEABLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID DAY AS
COMPARED TO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE AROUND 10 DEGREES
WHILE DEW POINT RISE WILL BE MORE LIKE 20 DEGREES. SOME CLOUDS MAY
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AS WARM ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY ALOFT
ALONG THE TAIL END OF A WARM FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE BY TO OUR
NORTHWEST...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH HEIGHTS
CONTINUING TO BUILD ALOFT AHEAD OF THE STILL APPROACHING AND
BUILDING RIDGE AXIS.

CLOUDS WILL MAKE FOR A MUCH MILDER NIGHT ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT PASSES BY TO THE NORTH...BUT AGAIN NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. ON MONDAY THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH OR
SLIGHTLY EXCEED 90 DEGREES IN MANY AREAS. DEW POINTS STILL WON`T
BE TOO HIGH WITH READINGS PROBABLY STAYING IN THE UPPER 50S IN
MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT IT WILL STILL FEEL CONSIDERABLY MORE
SUMMER-LIKE THAN IT WILL ON SATURDAY. WITH THE RIDGE STILL
BUILDING OVERHEAD...AND DEW POINTS NOT ALL THAT HIGH JUST
YET...CONSENSUS APPEARS TO BE FAVORABLE FOR A STORM-FREE DAY SO
HAVE KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ECMWF 500 MB RIDGE OVER MID ATLANTIC REGION SLOWLY MOVING TO EAST
ALLOWING A SHORT WAVE TO AFFECT THE REGION THURSDAY. MOISTURE AND
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY INCREASE ON SOUTHWEST FLOW DURING THE
PERIOD. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WIND GUSTS /20 KT/ WL SUBSIDE BY 01 OR 02Z. NW WINDS WILL
CONT 10-15 KT...EVENTUALLY DIMINISHING TO 5-10KT OVNGT. NO CLDS OF
CONSEQUENCE...NOR ANY VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY. WINDS WL BE A NON-
FACTOR...LESS THAN 6 KT...AS THEY TRANSITION FM NLY TO SSWLY.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH NO
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THE RISK FOR STORMS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS INCREASE
INSTABILITY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS STRONGER IN NRN BAY AND UPR TIDAL PTMC ATTM THAN THEY ARE ON
THE LWR WATERS. SCA CRITERIA BEING MET IN THE FORMER LOCATIONS.
HWVR...CDFNT CROSSING WATERS THRU ELY MRNG WL BRING A ZONE OF
FVRBL MIXING SWD. FOR THAT REASON...WL LEAVE SCA IN PLACE AS IS.
ADVY EXPIRES FOR NRN-MOST WATERS AT 11PM. BY THEN...XPCT TO BE
MEETING SCA CRITERIA FURTHER S. SHUD BE ABLE TO TRIM SCA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA AOB CURRENT 8AM EXPIRATION.

HIPRES MVS OVRHD SAT. WINDS SHUD HV DIMINISHED TO 5-10 KT BY
MID MRNG...AND WL CONT IN THAT RANGE THRU THE DAY WHILE BACKING
SW.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING FOR
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT DUE
TO THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW...BUT IT WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO
THE RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MDZ501.
VA...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     WVZ501-503-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ531>534-
     537-539>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     535-536-538.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS/HAS
NEAR TERM...HTS/HAS
SHORT TERM...RCM
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...HTS/HAS/RCM
MARINE...HTS/RCM



000
FXUS61 KLWX 230053
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
853 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVERHEAD SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
SUNDAY AND REMAIN IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH MID- WEEK NEXT
WEEK WITH NOTICEABLY HOTTER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS RETURNING TO
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LTST SFC ANALY DEPICTS CDFNT DRAPED ACRS THE CWFA. ISOL SHRA FOUND
AT THE END OF THE DAY HV SINCE DSPTD W/ THE SETTING SUN. FOR THAT
MATTER...MOST OF THE CLDS HV EVAPORATED AS WELL. WL STILL BE
CARRYING A PD OF PTCLDY SKIES TO ACCOMPANY THE FNT...WHICH SHUD
CLR SRN ZNS BY OR SHORTLY AFTR MIDNGT.

WNDS HV ALSO STARTED TO RESPOND TO THE LOSS OF DIURNAL MIXING.
MOST OF THE HIER GUSTS SHUD CEASE BY 01 OR 02Z. HWVR...BASED ON
ANTICIPATED NIGHT TIME CAA...AM HESITANT ON ELIMINTING WINDS
COMPLETELY. THAT PLAYS INTO THE OVNGT TEMP FCST.

DRY AND CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE 40S
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE METROS/BAYSHORE SEEING THE 50S AND THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ALLGHENY FRONT SEEING THE MID-UPR 30S.
LTST LAMP DATA GENERALLY IN SYNCH W/ THESE THOUGHTS. DID MAKE A
CPL MINOR ADJUSTMENTS...MAINLY TO SHAVE ANTHR DEGF OR TWO OFF FOR
SITES WHERE CLIMO TENDS TO BE SHELTERED VLYS. HWVR...CONSIDERING
HOW LOW DEWPTS WL BE BY MRNG AND THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING FULL
DCPLG...DID NOT ADD ANYONE ELSE TO CURRENT FROST ADVY. IT REMAINS
IN PLACE FOR THE WRN FRINGE OF THE CWFA BTWN ALLEGANY AND PENDLTN
CNTYS.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY. NLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS
BELOW CLIMO IN THE UPPER 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THE RETURN FLOW WILL BE SLOW AND LOWS WILL
ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES MILDER ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS COMPARED TO
FRIDAY NIGHT. HUMIDITY WILL START TO COME BACK HOWEVER.
OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR AS HEIGHTS ALOFT BUILD
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING RIDGE.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST SUNDAY WITH THE
RETURN FLOW RESULTING IN A NOTICEABLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID DAY AS
COMPARED TO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE AROUND 10 DEGREES
WHILE DEW POINT RISE WILL BE MORE LIKE 20 DEGREES. SOME CLOUDS MAY
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AS WARM ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY ALOFT
ALONG THE TAIL END OF A WARM FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE BY TO OUR
NORTHWEST...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH HEIGHTS
CONTINUING TO BUILD ALOFT AHEAD OF THE STILL APPROACHING AND
BUILDING RIDGE AXIS.

CLOUDS WILL MAKE FOR A MUCH MILDER NIGHT ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT PASSES BY TO THE NORTH...BUT AGAIN NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. ON MONDAY THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH OR
SLIGHTLY EXCEED 90 DEGREES IN MANY AREAS. DEW POINTS STILL WON`T
BE TOO HIGH WITH READINGS PROBABLY STAYING IN THE UPPER 50S IN
MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT IT WILL STILL FEEL CONSIDERABLY MORE
SUMMER-LIKE THAN IT WILL ON SATURDAY. WITH THE RIDGE STILL
BUILDING OVERHEAD...AND DEW POINTS NOT ALL THAT HIGH JUST
YET...CONSENSUS APPEARS TO BE FAVORABLE FOR A STORM-FREE DAY SO
HAVE KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ECMWF 500 MB RIDGE OVER MID ATLANTIC REGION SLOWLY MOVING TO EAST
ALLOWING A SHORT WAVE TO AFFECT THE REGION THURSDAY. MOISTURE AND
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY INCREASE ON SOUTHWEST FLOW DURING THE
PERIOD. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WIND GUSTS /20 KT/ WL SUBSIDE BY 01 OR 02Z. NW WINDS WILL
CONT 10-15 KT...EVENTUALLY DIMINISHING TO 5-10KT OVNGT. NO CLDS OF
CONSEQUENCE...NOR ANY VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY. WINDS WL BE A NON-
FACTOR...LESS THAN 6 KT...AS THEY TRANSITION FM NLY TO SSWLY.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH NO
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THE RISK FOR STORMS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS INCREASE
INSTABILITY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS STRONGER IN NRN BAY AND UPR TIDAL PTMC ATTM THAN THEY ARE ON
THE LWR WATERS. SCA CRITERIA BEING MET IN THE FORMER LOCATIONS.
HWVR...CDFNT CROSSING WATERS THRU ELY MRNG WL BRING A ZONE OF
FVRBL MIXING SWD. FOR THAT REASON...WL LEAVE SCA IN PLACE AS IS.
ADVY EXPIRES FOR NRN-MOST WATERS AT 11PM. BY THEN...XPCT TO BE
MEETING SCA CRITERIA FURTHER S. SHUD BE ABLE TO TRIM SCA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA AOB CURRENT 8AM EXPIRATION.

HIPRES MVS OVRHD SAT. WINDS SHUD HV DIMINISHED TO 5-10 KT BY
MID MRNG...AND WL CONT IN THAT RANGE THRU THE DAY WHILE BACKING
SW.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING FOR
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT DUE
TO THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW...BUT IT WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO
THE RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MDZ501.
VA...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     WVZ501-503-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ531>534-
     537-539>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     535-536-538.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS/HAS
NEAR TERM...HTS/HAS
SHORT TERM...RCM
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...HTS/HAS/RCM
MARINE...HTS/RCM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 222357
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
757 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NO MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT OUR REGION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST STAYS
IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND WITH
HEAT AND HUMIDITY ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WITH JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A LATE DAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES FURTHER TO THE EAST...OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...

VISIBLE SATELLITE PICS INDICATE LOTS OF SUNSHINE FOR THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A BAND OF CLOUDS WITH SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS FORMED ALONG AN APPROACHING FRONT TO OUR NORTH. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS HAD A HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE FOR A GOOD WHILE NOW AND
EXPECT THE FRONT TO WASH OUT AS IT ENTERS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT.
THUS EXPECT THE ONLY AFFECTS WE WILL FEEL FROM THE FRONT WILL BE
SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AS ANY PRECIPITATION WILL DISSIPATE
BEFORE IT REACHES US.

ON SATURDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO OUR EAST AND SET
UP A SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW WHICH WILL WARM US UP A FEW
DEGREES FROM TODAY AND START TO INCREASE HUMIDITY LEVELS A BIT. A
STRAY SPRINKLE IS POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE WITH THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RUNNING UP THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE
REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL ZONE...BUT ANY POPS WILL BE BELOW
MENTIONABLE LEVELS AND IT CERTAINLY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A REASON TO
CANCEL A PICNIC SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.

LOWS TONIGHT ARE A BIT CHALLENGING AS ANY CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT DROPPING DOWN WILL INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. STILL
BELIEVE IT WILL GET QUITE CHILLY WITH GENERALLY LOW/MID 40S WEST
OF THE RIDGE AND MID/UPPER 40S EAST. SOME OF THE NORMALLY COOLER
LOCATIONS WEST OF THE RIDGE MAY REACH THE UPPER 30S BY DAYBREAK
BUT BELIEVE EXPECTED DEWPOINTS AND SOME DEGREE OF CLOUDS WILL
PROHIBIT ANY FROST FORMATION AND MITIGATE ANY THREAT TO TENDER
VEGETATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...

TIME TO FIRE UP THE BARBIE!

HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES TRENDING PROGRESSIVELY
WARMER.  WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE...SHOWER PRODUCTION WILL BE KEPT
TO A MINIMUM...THUS EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...

SUMMERLIKE PATTERN TO CLOSE OUT THE LAST WEEK OF MAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK...THE
ACTUAL SURFACE HIGH BECOMING ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS WILL PLACE OUR FORECAST AREA IN AN IN INCREASINGLY MUGGY
PATTERN WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S TO COMPLIMENT THE
UPWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S/NEAR 90.

THE WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEEP
CONVECTION.  FORCING WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY THEN AREAWIDE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
TRIES TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE WEEK APPEARS TO BE
LOW...DYNAMIC SUPPORT LACKING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT FRIDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. A WEAK
WEST-EAST ORIENTED COLD FRONT WAS DRIFTING DOWN FROM THE NORTH
THIS EVENING...ASSOCIATED WITH SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS AND A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN WV. THESE SHOWERS WILL NOT MAKE IT TO THE
TAF SITES...BUT A FEW OF THE REMNANT CLOUDS WILL. MODELS SHOW THE
LEFTOVER FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
CWA SATURDAY AND MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE 050-070 RANGE COULD YIELD
SCT-BKN CLOUDS DURING DIURNAL HEATING...MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. OCCASIONAL SCT250 AS WELL FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
SPILLING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE JUST TO OUR WEST. THE AIR MASS IS
QUITE DRY...BUT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE RELATIVELY EFFECTIVE
TONIGHT...WHICH COULD YIELD SOME MVFR BR AT LWB/BCB IN THE 09Z-12Z
TIME FRAME...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
WINDS...NW 5-7KTS THROUGH 04Z...THEN VEERING THROUGH NE-SE DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST. SPEEDS
REMAINING MOSTLY 7KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MADAME TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND THE HIGH
WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY
BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOUNTAIN AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY BY LATER TUESDAY...WHEN PERIODS OF
MVFR COULD OCCUR MAINLY BLUE RIDGE WEST. OTHERWISE...VFR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY OUTSIDE OF ANY LATE DAY CONVECTION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JR/MBS/RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 222357
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
757 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NO MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT OUR REGION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST STAYS
IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND WITH
HEAT AND HUMIDITY ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WITH JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A LATE DAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES FURTHER TO THE EAST...OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...

VISIBLE SATELLITE PICS INDICATE LOTS OF SUNSHINE FOR THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A BAND OF CLOUDS WITH SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS FORMED ALONG AN APPROACHING FRONT TO OUR NORTH. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS HAD A HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE FOR A GOOD WHILE NOW AND
EXPECT THE FRONT TO WASH OUT AS IT ENTERS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT.
THUS EXPECT THE ONLY AFFECTS WE WILL FEEL FROM THE FRONT WILL BE
SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AS ANY PRECIPITATION WILL DISSIPATE
BEFORE IT REACHES US.

ON SATURDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO OUR EAST AND SET
UP A SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW WHICH WILL WARM US UP A FEW
DEGREES FROM TODAY AND START TO INCREASE HUMIDITY LEVELS A BIT. A
STRAY SPRINKLE IS POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE WITH THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RUNNING UP THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE
REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL ZONE...BUT ANY POPS WILL BE BELOW
MENTIONABLE LEVELS AND IT CERTAINLY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A REASON TO
CANCEL A PICNIC SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.

LOWS TONIGHT ARE A BIT CHALLENGING AS ANY CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT DROPPING DOWN WILL INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. STILL
BELIEVE IT WILL GET QUITE CHILLY WITH GENERALLY LOW/MID 40S WEST
OF THE RIDGE AND MID/UPPER 40S EAST. SOME OF THE NORMALLY COOLER
LOCATIONS WEST OF THE RIDGE MAY REACH THE UPPER 30S BY DAYBREAK
BUT BELIEVE EXPECTED DEWPOINTS AND SOME DEGREE OF CLOUDS WILL
PROHIBIT ANY FROST FORMATION AND MITIGATE ANY THREAT TO TENDER
VEGETATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...

TIME TO FIRE UP THE BARBIE!

HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES TRENDING PROGRESSIVELY
WARMER.  WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE...SHOWER PRODUCTION WILL BE KEPT
TO A MINIMUM...THUS EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...

SUMMERLIKE PATTERN TO CLOSE OUT THE LAST WEEK OF MAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK...THE
ACTUAL SURFACE HIGH BECOMING ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS WILL PLACE OUR FORECAST AREA IN AN IN INCREASINGLY MUGGY
PATTERN WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S TO COMPLIMENT THE
UPWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S/NEAR 90.

THE WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEEP
CONVECTION.  FORCING WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY THEN AREAWIDE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
TRIES TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE WEEK APPEARS TO BE
LOW...DYNAMIC SUPPORT LACKING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT FRIDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. A WEAK
WEST-EAST ORIENTED COLD FRONT WAS DRIFTING DOWN FROM THE NORTH
THIS EVENING...ASSOCIATED WITH SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS AND A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN WV. THESE SHOWERS WILL NOT MAKE IT TO THE
TAF SITES...BUT A FEW OF THE REMNANT CLOUDS WILL. MODELS SHOW THE
LEFTOVER FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
CWA SATURDAY AND MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE 050-070 RANGE COULD YIELD
SCT-BKN CLOUDS DURING DIURNAL HEATING...MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. OCCASIONAL SCT250 AS WELL FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
SPILLING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE JUST TO OUR WEST. THE AIR MASS IS
QUITE DRY...BUT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE RELATIVELY EFFECTIVE
TONIGHT...WHICH COULD YIELD SOME MVFR BR AT LWB/BCB IN THE 09Z-12Z
TIME FRAME...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
WINDS...NW 5-7KTS THROUGH 04Z...THEN VEERING THROUGH NE-SE DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST. SPEEDS
REMAINING MOSTLY 7KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MADAME TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND THE HIGH
WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY
BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOUNTAIN AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY BY LATER TUESDAY...WHEN PERIODS OF
MVFR COULD OCCUR MAINLY BLUE RIDGE WEST. OTHERWISE...VFR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY OUTSIDE OF ANY LATE DAY CONVECTION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JR/MBS/RAB



000
FXUS61 KRNK 222357
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
757 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NO MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT OUR REGION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST STAYS
IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND WITH
HEAT AND HUMIDITY ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WITH JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A LATE DAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES FURTHER TO THE EAST...OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...

VISIBLE SATELLITE PICS INDICATE LOTS OF SUNSHINE FOR THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A BAND OF CLOUDS WITH SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS FORMED ALONG AN APPROACHING FRONT TO OUR NORTH. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS HAD A HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE FOR A GOOD WHILE NOW AND
EXPECT THE FRONT TO WASH OUT AS IT ENTERS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT.
THUS EXPECT THE ONLY AFFECTS WE WILL FEEL FROM THE FRONT WILL BE
SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AS ANY PRECIPITATION WILL DISSIPATE
BEFORE IT REACHES US.

ON SATURDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO OUR EAST AND SET
UP A SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW WHICH WILL WARM US UP A FEW
DEGREES FROM TODAY AND START TO INCREASE HUMIDITY LEVELS A BIT. A
STRAY SPRINKLE IS POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE WITH THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RUNNING UP THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE
REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL ZONE...BUT ANY POPS WILL BE BELOW
MENTIONABLE LEVELS AND IT CERTAINLY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A REASON TO
CANCEL A PICNIC SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.

LOWS TONIGHT ARE A BIT CHALLENGING AS ANY CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT DROPPING DOWN WILL INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. STILL
BELIEVE IT WILL GET QUITE CHILLY WITH GENERALLY LOW/MID 40S WEST
OF THE RIDGE AND MID/UPPER 40S EAST. SOME OF THE NORMALLY COOLER
LOCATIONS WEST OF THE RIDGE MAY REACH THE UPPER 30S BY DAYBREAK
BUT BELIEVE EXPECTED DEWPOINTS AND SOME DEGREE OF CLOUDS WILL
PROHIBIT ANY FROST FORMATION AND MITIGATE ANY THREAT TO TENDER
VEGETATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...

TIME TO FIRE UP THE BARBIE!

HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES TRENDING PROGRESSIVELY
WARMER.  WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE...SHOWER PRODUCTION WILL BE KEPT
TO A MINIMUM...THUS EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...

SUMMERLIKE PATTERN TO CLOSE OUT THE LAST WEEK OF MAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK...THE
ACTUAL SURFACE HIGH BECOMING ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS WILL PLACE OUR FORECAST AREA IN AN IN INCREASINGLY MUGGY
PATTERN WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S TO COMPLIMENT THE
UPWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S/NEAR 90.

THE WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEEP
CONVECTION.  FORCING WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY THEN AREAWIDE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
TRIES TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE WEEK APPEARS TO BE
LOW...DYNAMIC SUPPORT LACKING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT FRIDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. A WEAK
WEST-EAST ORIENTED COLD FRONT WAS DRIFTING DOWN FROM THE NORTH
THIS EVENING...ASSOCIATED WITH SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS AND A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN WV. THESE SHOWERS WILL NOT MAKE IT TO THE
TAF SITES...BUT A FEW OF THE REMNANT CLOUDS WILL. MODELS SHOW THE
LEFTOVER FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
CWA SATURDAY AND MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE 050-070 RANGE COULD YIELD
SCT-BKN CLOUDS DURING DIURNAL HEATING...MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. OCCASIONAL SCT250 AS WELL FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
SPILLING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE JUST TO OUR WEST. THE AIR MASS IS
QUITE DRY...BUT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE RELATIVELY EFFECTIVE
TONIGHT...WHICH COULD YIELD SOME MVFR BR AT LWB/BCB IN THE 09Z-12Z
TIME FRAME...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
WINDS...NW 5-7KTS THROUGH 04Z...THEN VEERING THROUGH NE-SE DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST. SPEEDS
REMAINING MOSTLY 7KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MADAME TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND THE HIGH
WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY
BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOUNTAIN AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY BY LATER TUESDAY...WHEN PERIODS OF
MVFR COULD OCCUR MAINLY BLUE RIDGE WEST. OTHERWISE...VFR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY OUTSIDE OF ANY LATE DAY CONVECTION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JR/MBS/RAB



000
FXUS61 KRNK 222357
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
757 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NO MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT OUR REGION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST STAYS
IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND WITH
HEAT AND HUMIDITY ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WITH JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A LATE DAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES FURTHER TO THE EAST...OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...

VISIBLE SATELLITE PICS INDICATE LOTS OF SUNSHINE FOR THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A BAND OF CLOUDS WITH SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS FORMED ALONG AN APPROACHING FRONT TO OUR NORTH. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS HAD A HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE FOR A GOOD WHILE NOW AND
EXPECT THE FRONT TO WASH OUT AS IT ENTERS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT.
THUS EXPECT THE ONLY AFFECTS WE WILL FEEL FROM THE FRONT WILL BE
SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AS ANY PRECIPITATION WILL DISSIPATE
BEFORE IT REACHES US.

ON SATURDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO OUR EAST AND SET
UP A SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW WHICH WILL WARM US UP A FEW
DEGREES FROM TODAY AND START TO INCREASE HUMIDITY LEVELS A BIT. A
STRAY SPRINKLE IS POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE WITH THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RUNNING UP THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE
REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL ZONE...BUT ANY POPS WILL BE BELOW
MENTIONABLE LEVELS AND IT CERTAINLY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A REASON TO
CANCEL A PICNIC SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.

LOWS TONIGHT ARE A BIT CHALLENGING AS ANY CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT DROPPING DOWN WILL INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. STILL
BELIEVE IT WILL GET QUITE CHILLY WITH GENERALLY LOW/MID 40S WEST
OF THE RIDGE AND MID/UPPER 40S EAST. SOME OF THE NORMALLY COOLER
LOCATIONS WEST OF THE RIDGE MAY REACH THE UPPER 30S BY DAYBREAK
BUT BELIEVE EXPECTED DEWPOINTS AND SOME DEGREE OF CLOUDS WILL
PROHIBIT ANY FROST FORMATION AND MITIGATE ANY THREAT TO TENDER
VEGETATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...

TIME TO FIRE UP THE BARBIE!

HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES TRENDING PROGRESSIVELY
WARMER.  WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE...SHOWER PRODUCTION WILL BE KEPT
TO A MINIMUM...THUS EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...

SUMMERLIKE PATTERN TO CLOSE OUT THE LAST WEEK OF MAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK...THE
ACTUAL SURFACE HIGH BECOMING ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS WILL PLACE OUR FORECAST AREA IN AN IN INCREASINGLY MUGGY
PATTERN WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S TO COMPLIMENT THE
UPWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S/NEAR 90.

THE WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEEP
CONVECTION.  FORCING WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY THEN AREAWIDE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
TRIES TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE WEEK APPEARS TO BE
LOW...DYNAMIC SUPPORT LACKING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT FRIDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. A WEAK
WEST-EAST ORIENTED COLD FRONT WAS DRIFTING DOWN FROM THE NORTH
THIS EVENING...ASSOCIATED WITH SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS AND A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN WV. THESE SHOWERS WILL NOT MAKE IT TO THE
TAF SITES...BUT A FEW OF THE REMNANT CLOUDS WILL. MODELS SHOW THE
LEFTOVER FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
CWA SATURDAY AND MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE 050-070 RANGE COULD YIELD
SCT-BKN CLOUDS DURING DIURNAL HEATING...MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. OCCASIONAL SCT250 AS WELL FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
SPILLING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE JUST TO OUR WEST. THE AIR MASS IS
QUITE DRY...BUT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE RELATIVELY EFFECTIVE
TONIGHT...WHICH COULD YIELD SOME MVFR BR AT LWB/BCB IN THE 09Z-12Z
TIME FRAME...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
WINDS...NW 5-7KTS THROUGH 04Z...THEN VEERING THROUGH NE-SE DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST. SPEEDS
REMAINING MOSTLY 7KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MADAME TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND THE HIGH
WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY
BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOUNTAIN AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY BY LATER TUESDAY...WHEN PERIODS OF
MVFR COULD OCCUR MAINLY BLUE RIDGE WEST. OTHERWISE...VFR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY OUTSIDE OF ANY LATE DAY CONVECTION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JR/MBS/RAB




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 222311
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
711 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FOR SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE AND REMAIN
JUST OFF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS WEAK LO PRES OVER SE CANADA WITH ITS
ATTENDANT COLD FRNT STRETCHING ACROSS THE THE PA/MD BORDER. THIS
FRNT WILL DROP THRU THE AREA LATE THIS EVENG AND
OVERNIGHT...WITHOUT ANY PCPN AND ONLY A FEW CLOUDS AS THE COLUMN
REMAINS QUITE DRY (1000-500 MB RH LESS THAN 40%). SFC HI PRES WILL
THEN QUICKLY BLD IN BEHIND THE FRNT LATE TNGT. TEMPS WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES BLO NORMAL...WITH LOWS RANGING FM THE UPR 40S TO MID
50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY DRY WX WITH INCREASING
TEMPS AND HUMIDITY THRU THE PERIOD. SFC HI PRES WILL CENTER
DIRECTLY OVER THE MID ATLC BY MIDDAY SAT...THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE
LATE IN THE DAY AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. LIKE FRI...TEMPS WILL
ONLY MAX OUT IN THE LO TO MID 70S UNDER A SUNNY SKY.

WARMING TREND BEGINS SUN AND MON AS SLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH THE HI
OFFSHORE AND AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE ERN
SEABOARD. EXPECT HI TEMPS SUN IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S...AND THE
MID TO UPR 80S MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE CONTINUES TO APPEAR TO BE DOMINATED WITH A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SE/MID ATLC STATES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LATEST ECMWF/GFS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH
THE GFS STILL A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE AT BREAKING DOWN/WEAKENING
THE RIDGE BY MID TO LATE WEEK (THOUGH NOT TO THE EXTENT IT HAD
BEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS). MODELS ALSO DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH
RESPECT TO 850 MB TEMPERATURES...THE ECMWF REMAINING WARMER BY
ABOUT 2-3 C THAN THE GFS. OVERALL...THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO WARM
/SUMMER- LIKE WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH VERY MINIMAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN...LIMITED TO ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY
LATE AFTN OR EVENING TSTMS DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
DRIFTING INTO THE REGION. HAVE DROPPED POPS ALTOGETHER FOR MON
NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY WED...THEN WILL HAVE JUST 20% POP OVER JUST
THE FAR NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON WED...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE
LATE AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THU/FRI (UP TO 30% FAR
NW). INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH TEMPS WARMING BACK TO THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS
(GFS HIGHS ONLY IN MID 80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS
PATTERN). CONDITIONS WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE
COAST. LOWS AVG IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD TOWARD THE REGION WILL CROSS ALL
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...REACHING KSBY FIRST AND KECG LAST. ANY
GUSTINESS ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
KORF...AND HAVE INDICATED TEMPO GUSTS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS LATE
TONIGHT. CLOUD CEILINGS SHOULD BE IN THE 6KFT TO 9KFT RANGE...AND
NO WORSE THAN BKN FOR A COUPLE HOURS AROUND FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN VICINITY OF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND REMAINING ANCHORED OFF THE COAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS MOST IF NOT
ALL THE TIME DURING THAT PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS DIMINISHING ACRS THE AREA THIS AFTN...CURRENT CONDS ARE
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ALL ZONES. HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
APPROACHING THE NRN MID ATLC REGION...AND WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH
THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT. NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS WHAT OCCURRED
LAST NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK...BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO YIELD LOW END SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE BAY AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
11-14Z/FRI MORNING. HAVE RAISED ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA HEADLINES FOR
THE BAY...BEGINNING AT 05Z/FRI...AND LASTING THROUGH 11Z N OF NEW
PT COMFORT...AND THROUGH 14Z SOUTH OF NEW PT COMFORT (05Z MAY BE A
TAD EARLY FOR THESE LOWER BAY ZONES BUT DID NOT WANT TO GET TOO
SPECIFIC ATTM). DID NOT RAISE ANY HEADLINES FOR OTHER ZONES AS IT
LOOKS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL EVEN FOR THE BAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KT MAY AFFECT THE RIVERS. SEAS ON THE COASTAL WATERS
BUILD TO 4 FT IF THAT (AND THIS IS GOING WELL ABOVE WAVE WATCH
WHICH KEEPS SEAS CAPPED AT 2-3 FT).

PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS QUICKLY SATURDAY AND EXPECT WINDS TO
AGAIN DROP OFF QUICKLY BY LATE MORNING AS THE HIGH BUILDS
OVERHEAD. WINDS SHIFT TO THE S/SE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. WINDS SHOULD THEN FOLLOW A DIURNAL
PATTERN...INCREASING A BIT MAINLY IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING/EARLY
AM HRS LATE SUN THROUGH MIDWEEK AS UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS WITH SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL GENLY REMAIN
SUB-SCA THOUGH SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY GUST TO NEAR 20 KT IN THE BAY
DURING THIS LATE AFTN/EVENING/EARLY AM TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ630-
     631.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...AJZ/WRS
MARINE...LKB



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 222311
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
711 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FOR SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE AND REMAIN
JUST OFF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS WEAK LO PRES OVER SE CANADA WITH ITS
ATTENDANT COLD FRNT STRETCHING ACROSS THE THE PA/MD BORDER. THIS
FRNT WILL DROP THRU THE AREA LATE THIS EVENG AND
OVERNIGHT...WITHOUT ANY PCPN AND ONLY A FEW CLOUDS AS THE COLUMN
REMAINS QUITE DRY (1000-500 MB RH LESS THAN 40%). SFC HI PRES WILL
THEN QUICKLY BLD IN BEHIND THE FRNT LATE TNGT. TEMPS WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES BLO NORMAL...WITH LOWS RANGING FM THE UPR 40S TO MID
50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY DRY WX WITH INCREASING
TEMPS AND HUMIDITY THRU THE PERIOD. SFC HI PRES WILL CENTER
DIRECTLY OVER THE MID ATLC BY MIDDAY SAT...THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE
LATE IN THE DAY AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. LIKE FRI...TEMPS WILL
ONLY MAX OUT IN THE LO TO MID 70S UNDER A SUNNY SKY.

WARMING TREND BEGINS SUN AND MON AS SLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH THE HI
OFFSHORE AND AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE ERN
SEABOARD. EXPECT HI TEMPS SUN IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S...AND THE
MID TO UPR 80S MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE CONTINUES TO APPEAR TO BE DOMINATED WITH A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SE/MID ATLC STATES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LATEST ECMWF/GFS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH
THE GFS STILL A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE AT BREAKING DOWN/WEAKENING
THE RIDGE BY MID TO LATE WEEK (THOUGH NOT TO THE EXTENT IT HAD
BEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS). MODELS ALSO DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH
RESPECT TO 850 MB TEMPERATURES...THE ECMWF REMAINING WARMER BY
ABOUT 2-3 C THAN THE GFS. OVERALL...THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO WARM
/SUMMER- LIKE WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH VERY MINIMAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN...LIMITED TO ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY
LATE AFTN OR EVENING TSTMS DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
DRIFTING INTO THE REGION. HAVE DROPPED POPS ALTOGETHER FOR MON
NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY WED...THEN WILL HAVE JUST 20% POP OVER JUST
THE FAR NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON WED...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE
LATE AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THU/FRI (UP TO 30% FAR
NW). INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH TEMPS WARMING BACK TO THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS
(GFS HIGHS ONLY IN MID 80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS
PATTERN). CONDITIONS WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE
COAST. LOWS AVG IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD TOWARD THE REGION WILL CROSS ALL
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...REACHING KSBY FIRST AND KECG LAST. ANY
GUSTINESS ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
KORF...AND HAVE INDICATED TEMPO GUSTS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS LATE
TONIGHT. CLOUD CEILINGS SHOULD BE IN THE 6KFT TO 9KFT RANGE...AND
NO WORSE THAN BKN FOR A COUPLE HOURS AROUND FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN VICINITY OF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND REMAINING ANCHORED OFF THE COAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS MOST IF NOT
ALL THE TIME DURING THAT PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS DIMINISHING ACRS THE AREA THIS AFTN...CURRENT CONDS ARE
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ALL ZONES. HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
APPROACHING THE NRN MID ATLC REGION...AND WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH
THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT. NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS WHAT OCCURRED
LAST NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK...BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO YIELD LOW END SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE BAY AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
11-14Z/FRI MORNING. HAVE RAISED ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA HEADLINES FOR
THE BAY...BEGINNING AT 05Z/FRI...AND LASTING THROUGH 11Z N OF NEW
PT COMFORT...AND THROUGH 14Z SOUTH OF NEW PT COMFORT (05Z MAY BE A
TAD EARLY FOR THESE LOWER BAY ZONES BUT DID NOT WANT TO GET TOO
SPECIFIC ATTM). DID NOT RAISE ANY HEADLINES FOR OTHER ZONES AS IT
LOOKS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL EVEN FOR THE BAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KT MAY AFFECT THE RIVERS. SEAS ON THE COASTAL WATERS
BUILD TO 4 FT IF THAT (AND THIS IS GOING WELL ABOVE WAVE WATCH
WHICH KEEPS SEAS CAPPED AT 2-3 FT).

PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS QUICKLY SATURDAY AND EXPECT WINDS TO
AGAIN DROP OFF QUICKLY BY LATE MORNING AS THE HIGH BUILDS
OVERHEAD. WINDS SHIFT TO THE S/SE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. WINDS SHOULD THEN FOLLOW A DIURNAL
PATTERN...INCREASING A BIT MAINLY IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING/EARLY
AM HRS LATE SUN THROUGH MIDWEEK AS UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS WITH SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL GENLY REMAIN
SUB-SCA THOUGH SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY GUST TO NEAR 20 KT IN THE BAY
DURING THIS LATE AFTN/EVENING/EARLY AM TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ630-
     631.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...AJZ/WRS
MARINE...LKB



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 222311
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
711 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FOR SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE AND REMAIN
JUST OFF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS WEAK LO PRES OVER SE CANADA WITH ITS
ATTENDANT COLD FRNT STRETCHING ACROSS THE THE PA/MD BORDER. THIS
FRNT WILL DROP THRU THE AREA LATE THIS EVENG AND
OVERNIGHT...WITHOUT ANY PCPN AND ONLY A FEW CLOUDS AS THE COLUMN
REMAINS QUITE DRY (1000-500 MB RH LESS THAN 40%). SFC HI PRES WILL
THEN QUICKLY BLD IN BEHIND THE FRNT LATE TNGT. TEMPS WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES BLO NORMAL...WITH LOWS RANGING FM THE UPR 40S TO MID
50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY DRY WX WITH INCREASING
TEMPS AND HUMIDITY THRU THE PERIOD. SFC HI PRES WILL CENTER
DIRECTLY OVER THE MID ATLC BY MIDDAY SAT...THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE
LATE IN THE DAY AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. LIKE FRI...TEMPS WILL
ONLY MAX OUT IN THE LO TO MID 70S UNDER A SUNNY SKY.

WARMING TREND BEGINS SUN AND MON AS SLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH THE HI
OFFSHORE AND AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE ERN
SEABOARD. EXPECT HI TEMPS SUN IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S...AND THE
MID TO UPR 80S MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE CONTINUES TO APPEAR TO BE DOMINATED WITH A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SE/MID ATLC STATES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LATEST ECMWF/GFS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH
THE GFS STILL A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE AT BREAKING DOWN/WEAKENING
THE RIDGE BY MID TO LATE WEEK (THOUGH NOT TO THE EXTENT IT HAD
BEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS). MODELS ALSO DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH
RESPECT TO 850 MB TEMPERATURES...THE ECMWF REMAINING WARMER BY
ABOUT 2-3 C THAN THE GFS. OVERALL...THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO WARM
/SUMMER- LIKE WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH VERY MINIMAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN...LIMITED TO ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY
LATE AFTN OR EVENING TSTMS DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
DRIFTING INTO THE REGION. HAVE DROPPED POPS ALTOGETHER FOR MON
NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY WED...THEN WILL HAVE JUST 20% POP OVER JUST
THE FAR NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON WED...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE
LATE AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THU/FRI (UP TO 30% FAR
NW). INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH TEMPS WARMING BACK TO THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS
(GFS HIGHS ONLY IN MID 80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS
PATTERN). CONDITIONS WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE
COAST. LOWS AVG IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD TOWARD THE REGION WILL CROSS ALL
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...REACHING KSBY FIRST AND KECG LAST. ANY
GUSTINESS ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
KORF...AND HAVE INDICATED TEMPO GUSTS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS LATE
TONIGHT. CLOUD CEILINGS SHOULD BE IN THE 6KFT TO 9KFT RANGE...AND
NO WORSE THAN BKN FOR A COUPLE HOURS AROUND FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN VICINITY OF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND REMAINING ANCHORED OFF THE COAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS MOST IF NOT
ALL THE TIME DURING THAT PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS DIMINISHING ACRS THE AREA THIS AFTN...CURRENT CONDS ARE
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ALL ZONES. HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
APPROACHING THE NRN MID ATLC REGION...AND WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH
THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT. NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS WHAT OCCURRED
LAST NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK...BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO YIELD LOW END SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE BAY AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
11-14Z/FRI MORNING. HAVE RAISED ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA HEADLINES FOR
THE BAY...BEGINNING AT 05Z/FRI...AND LASTING THROUGH 11Z N OF NEW
PT COMFORT...AND THROUGH 14Z SOUTH OF NEW PT COMFORT (05Z MAY BE A
TAD EARLY FOR THESE LOWER BAY ZONES BUT DID NOT WANT TO GET TOO
SPECIFIC ATTM). DID NOT RAISE ANY HEADLINES FOR OTHER ZONES AS IT
LOOKS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL EVEN FOR THE BAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KT MAY AFFECT THE RIVERS. SEAS ON THE COASTAL WATERS
BUILD TO 4 FT IF THAT (AND THIS IS GOING WELL ABOVE WAVE WATCH
WHICH KEEPS SEAS CAPPED AT 2-3 FT).

PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS QUICKLY SATURDAY AND EXPECT WINDS TO
AGAIN DROP OFF QUICKLY BY LATE MORNING AS THE HIGH BUILDS
OVERHEAD. WINDS SHIFT TO THE S/SE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. WINDS SHOULD THEN FOLLOW A DIURNAL
PATTERN...INCREASING A BIT MAINLY IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING/EARLY
AM HRS LATE SUN THROUGH MIDWEEK AS UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS WITH SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL GENLY REMAIN
SUB-SCA THOUGH SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY GUST TO NEAR 20 KT IN THE BAY
DURING THIS LATE AFTN/EVENING/EARLY AM TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ630-
     631.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...AJZ/WRS
MARINE...LKB



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 222311
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
711 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FOR SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE AND REMAIN
JUST OFF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS WEAK LO PRES OVER SE CANADA WITH ITS
ATTENDANT COLD FRNT STRETCHING ACROSS THE THE PA/MD BORDER. THIS
FRNT WILL DROP THRU THE AREA LATE THIS EVENG AND
OVERNIGHT...WITHOUT ANY PCPN AND ONLY A FEW CLOUDS AS THE COLUMN
REMAINS QUITE DRY (1000-500 MB RH LESS THAN 40%). SFC HI PRES WILL
THEN QUICKLY BLD IN BEHIND THE FRNT LATE TNGT. TEMPS WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES BLO NORMAL...WITH LOWS RANGING FM THE UPR 40S TO MID
50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY DRY WX WITH INCREASING
TEMPS AND HUMIDITY THRU THE PERIOD. SFC HI PRES WILL CENTER
DIRECTLY OVER THE MID ATLC BY MIDDAY SAT...THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE
LATE IN THE DAY AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. LIKE FRI...TEMPS WILL
ONLY MAX OUT IN THE LO TO MID 70S UNDER A SUNNY SKY.

WARMING TREND BEGINS SUN AND MON AS SLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH THE HI
OFFSHORE AND AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE ERN
SEABOARD. EXPECT HI TEMPS SUN IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S...AND THE
MID TO UPR 80S MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE CONTINUES TO APPEAR TO BE DOMINATED WITH A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SE/MID ATLC STATES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LATEST ECMWF/GFS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH
THE GFS STILL A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE AT BREAKING DOWN/WEAKENING
THE RIDGE BY MID TO LATE WEEK (THOUGH NOT TO THE EXTENT IT HAD
BEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS). MODELS ALSO DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH
RESPECT TO 850 MB TEMPERATURES...THE ECMWF REMAINING WARMER BY
ABOUT 2-3 C THAN THE GFS. OVERALL...THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO WARM
/SUMMER- LIKE WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH VERY MINIMAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN...LIMITED TO ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY
LATE AFTN OR EVENING TSTMS DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
DRIFTING INTO THE REGION. HAVE DROPPED POPS ALTOGETHER FOR MON
NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY WED...THEN WILL HAVE JUST 20% POP OVER JUST
THE FAR NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON WED...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE
LATE AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THU/FRI (UP TO 30% FAR
NW). INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH TEMPS WARMING BACK TO THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS
(GFS HIGHS ONLY IN MID 80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS
PATTERN). CONDITIONS WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE
COAST. LOWS AVG IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD TOWARD THE REGION WILL CROSS ALL
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...REACHING KSBY FIRST AND KECG LAST. ANY
GUSTINESS ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
KORF...AND HAVE INDICATED TEMPO GUSTS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS LATE
TONIGHT. CLOUD CEILINGS SHOULD BE IN THE 6KFT TO 9KFT RANGE...AND
NO WORSE THAN BKN FOR A COUPLE HOURS AROUND FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN VICINITY OF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND REMAINING ANCHORED OFF THE COAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS MOST IF NOT
ALL THE TIME DURING THAT PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS DIMINISHING ACRS THE AREA THIS AFTN...CURRENT CONDS ARE
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ALL ZONES. HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
APPROACHING THE NRN MID ATLC REGION...AND WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH
THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT. NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS WHAT OCCURRED
LAST NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK...BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO YIELD LOW END SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE BAY AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
11-14Z/FRI MORNING. HAVE RAISED ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA HEADLINES FOR
THE BAY...BEGINNING AT 05Z/FRI...AND LASTING THROUGH 11Z N OF NEW
PT COMFORT...AND THROUGH 14Z SOUTH OF NEW PT COMFORT (05Z MAY BE A
TAD EARLY FOR THESE LOWER BAY ZONES BUT DID NOT WANT TO GET TOO
SPECIFIC ATTM). DID NOT RAISE ANY HEADLINES FOR OTHER ZONES AS IT
LOOKS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL EVEN FOR THE BAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KT MAY AFFECT THE RIVERS. SEAS ON THE COASTAL WATERS
BUILD TO 4 FT IF THAT (AND THIS IS GOING WELL ABOVE WAVE WATCH
WHICH KEEPS SEAS CAPPED AT 2-3 FT).

PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS QUICKLY SATURDAY AND EXPECT WINDS TO
AGAIN DROP OFF QUICKLY BY LATE MORNING AS THE HIGH BUILDS
OVERHEAD. WINDS SHIFT TO THE S/SE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. WINDS SHOULD THEN FOLLOW A DIURNAL
PATTERN...INCREASING A BIT MAINLY IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING/EARLY
AM HRS LATE SUN THROUGH MIDWEEK AS UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS WITH SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL GENLY REMAIN
SUB-SCA THOUGH SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY GUST TO NEAR 20 KT IN THE BAY
DURING THIS LATE AFTN/EVENING/EARLY AM TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ630-
     631.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...AJZ/WRS
MARINE...LKB



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 222311
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
711 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FOR SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE AND REMAIN
JUST OFF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS WEAK LO PRES OVER SE CANADA WITH ITS
ATTENDANT COLD FRNT STRETCHING ACROSS THE THE PA/MD BORDER. THIS
FRNT WILL DROP THRU THE AREA LATE THIS EVENG AND
OVERNIGHT...WITHOUT ANY PCPN AND ONLY A FEW CLOUDS AS THE COLUMN
REMAINS QUITE DRY (1000-500 MB RH LESS THAN 40%). SFC HI PRES WILL
THEN QUICKLY BLD IN BEHIND THE FRNT LATE TNGT. TEMPS WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES BLO NORMAL...WITH LOWS RANGING FM THE UPR 40S TO MID
50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY DRY WX WITH INCREASING
TEMPS AND HUMIDITY THRU THE PERIOD. SFC HI PRES WILL CENTER
DIRECTLY OVER THE MID ATLC BY MIDDAY SAT...THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE
LATE IN THE DAY AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. LIKE FRI...TEMPS WILL
ONLY MAX OUT IN THE LO TO MID 70S UNDER A SUNNY SKY.

WARMING TREND BEGINS SUN AND MON AS SLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH THE HI
OFFSHORE AND AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE ERN
SEABOARD. EXPECT HI TEMPS SUN IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S...AND THE
MID TO UPR 80S MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE CONTINUES TO APPEAR TO BE DOMINATED WITH A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SE/MID ATLC STATES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LATEST ECMWF/GFS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH
THE GFS STILL A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE AT BREAKING DOWN/WEAKENING
THE RIDGE BY MID TO LATE WEEK (THOUGH NOT TO THE EXTENT IT HAD
BEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS). MODELS ALSO DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH
RESPECT TO 850 MB TEMPERATURES...THE ECMWF REMAINING WARMER BY
ABOUT 2-3 C THAN THE GFS. OVERALL...THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO WARM
/SUMMER- LIKE WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH VERY MINIMAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN...LIMITED TO ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY
LATE AFTN OR EVENING TSTMS DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
DRIFTING INTO THE REGION. HAVE DROPPED POPS ALTOGETHER FOR MON
NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY WED...THEN WILL HAVE JUST 20% POP OVER JUST
THE FAR NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON WED...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE
LATE AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THU/FRI (UP TO 30% FAR
NW). INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH TEMPS WARMING BACK TO THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS
(GFS HIGHS ONLY IN MID 80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS
PATTERN). CONDITIONS WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE
COAST. LOWS AVG IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD TOWARD THE REGION WILL CROSS ALL
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...REACHING KSBY FIRST AND KECG LAST. ANY
GUSTINESS ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
KORF...AND HAVE INDICATED TEMPO GUSTS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS LATE
TONIGHT. CLOUD CEILINGS SHOULD BE IN THE 6KFT TO 9KFT RANGE...AND
NO WORSE THAN BKN FOR A COUPLE HOURS AROUND FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN VICINITY OF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND REMAINING ANCHORED OFF THE COAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS MOST IF NOT
ALL THE TIME DURING THAT PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS DIMINISHING ACRS THE AREA THIS AFTN...CURRENT CONDS ARE
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ALL ZONES. HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
APPROACHING THE NRN MID ATLC REGION...AND WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH
THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT. NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS WHAT OCCURRED
LAST NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK...BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO YIELD LOW END SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE BAY AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
11-14Z/FRI MORNING. HAVE RAISED ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA HEADLINES FOR
THE BAY...BEGINNING AT 05Z/FRI...AND LASTING THROUGH 11Z N OF NEW
PT COMFORT...AND THROUGH 14Z SOUTH OF NEW PT COMFORT (05Z MAY BE A
TAD EARLY FOR THESE LOWER BAY ZONES BUT DID NOT WANT TO GET TOO
SPECIFIC ATTM). DID NOT RAISE ANY HEADLINES FOR OTHER ZONES AS IT
LOOKS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL EVEN FOR THE BAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KT MAY AFFECT THE RIVERS. SEAS ON THE COASTAL WATERS
BUILD TO 4 FT IF THAT (AND THIS IS GOING WELL ABOVE WAVE WATCH
WHICH KEEPS SEAS CAPPED AT 2-3 FT).

PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS QUICKLY SATURDAY AND EXPECT WINDS TO
AGAIN DROP OFF QUICKLY BY LATE MORNING AS THE HIGH BUILDS
OVERHEAD. WINDS SHIFT TO THE S/SE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. WINDS SHOULD THEN FOLLOW A DIURNAL
PATTERN...INCREASING A BIT MAINLY IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING/EARLY
AM HRS LATE SUN THROUGH MIDWEEK AS UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS WITH SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL GENLY REMAIN
SUB-SCA THOUGH SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY GUST TO NEAR 20 KT IN THE BAY
DURING THIS LATE AFTN/EVENING/EARLY AM TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ630-
     631.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...AJZ/WRS
MARINE...LKB



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 222311
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
711 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FOR SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE AND REMAIN
JUST OFF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS WEAK LO PRES OVER SE CANADA WITH ITS
ATTENDANT COLD FRNT STRETCHING ACROSS THE THE PA/MD BORDER. THIS
FRNT WILL DROP THRU THE AREA LATE THIS EVENG AND
OVERNIGHT...WITHOUT ANY PCPN AND ONLY A FEW CLOUDS AS THE COLUMN
REMAINS QUITE DRY (1000-500 MB RH LESS THAN 40%). SFC HI PRES WILL
THEN QUICKLY BLD IN BEHIND THE FRNT LATE TNGT. TEMPS WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES BLO NORMAL...WITH LOWS RANGING FM THE UPR 40S TO MID
50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY DRY WX WITH INCREASING
TEMPS AND HUMIDITY THRU THE PERIOD. SFC HI PRES WILL CENTER
DIRECTLY OVER THE MID ATLC BY MIDDAY SAT...THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE
LATE IN THE DAY AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. LIKE FRI...TEMPS WILL
ONLY MAX OUT IN THE LO TO MID 70S UNDER A SUNNY SKY.

WARMING TREND BEGINS SUN AND MON AS SLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH THE HI
OFFSHORE AND AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE ERN
SEABOARD. EXPECT HI TEMPS SUN IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S...AND THE
MID TO UPR 80S MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE CONTINUES TO APPEAR TO BE DOMINATED WITH A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SE/MID ATLC STATES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LATEST ECMWF/GFS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH
THE GFS STILL A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE AT BREAKING DOWN/WEAKENING
THE RIDGE BY MID TO LATE WEEK (THOUGH NOT TO THE EXTENT IT HAD
BEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS). MODELS ALSO DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH
RESPECT TO 850 MB TEMPERATURES...THE ECMWF REMAINING WARMER BY
ABOUT 2-3 C THAN THE GFS. OVERALL...THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO WARM
/SUMMER- LIKE WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH VERY MINIMAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN...LIMITED TO ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY
LATE AFTN OR EVENING TSTMS DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
DRIFTING INTO THE REGION. HAVE DROPPED POPS ALTOGETHER FOR MON
NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY WED...THEN WILL HAVE JUST 20% POP OVER JUST
THE FAR NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON WED...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE
LATE AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THU/FRI (UP TO 30% FAR
NW). INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH TEMPS WARMING BACK TO THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS
(GFS HIGHS ONLY IN MID 80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS
PATTERN). CONDITIONS WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE
COAST. LOWS AVG IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD TOWARD THE REGION WILL CROSS ALL
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...REACHING KSBY FIRST AND KECG LAST. ANY
GUSTINESS ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
KORF...AND HAVE INDICATED TEMPO GUSTS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS LATE
TONIGHT. CLOUD CEILINGS SHOULD BE IN THE 6KFT TO 9KFT RANGE...AND
NO WORSE THAN BKN FOR A COUPLE HOURS AROUND FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN VICINITY OF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND REMAINING ANCHORED OFF THE COAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS MOST IF NOT
ALL THE TIME DURING THAT PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS DIMINISHING ACRS THE AREA THIS AFTN...CURRENT CONDS ARE
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ALL ZONES. HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
APPROACHING THE NRN MID ATLC REGION...AND WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH
THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT. NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS WHAT OCCURRED
LAST NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK...BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO YIELD LOW END SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE BAY AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
11-14Z/FRI MORNING. HAVE RAISED ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA HEADLINES FOR
THE BAY...BEGINNING AT 05Z/FRI...AND LASTING THROUGH 11Z N OF NEW
PT COMFORT...AND THROUGH 14Z SOUTH OF NEW PT COMFORT (05Z MAY BE A
TAD EARLY FOR THESE LOWER BAY ZONES BUT DID NOT WANT TO GET TOO
SPECIFIC ATTM). DID NOT RAISE ANY HEADLINES FOR OTHER ZONES AS IT
LOOKS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL EVEN FOR THE BAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KT MAY AFFECT THE RIVERS. SEAS ON THE COASTAL WATERS
BUILD TO 4 FT IF THAT (AND THIS IS GOING WELL ABOVE WAVE WATCH
WHICH KEEPS SEAS CAPPED AT 2-3 FT).

PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS QUICKLY SATURDAY AND EXPECT WINDS TO
AGAIN DROP OFF QUICKLY BY LATE MORNING AS THE HIGH BUILDS
OVERHEAD. WINDS SHIFT TO THE S/SE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. WINDS SHOULD THEN FOLLOW A DIURNAL
PATTERN...INCREASING A BIT MAINLY IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING/EARLY
AM HRS LATE SUN THROUGH MIDWEEK AS UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS WITH SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL GENLY REMAIN
SUB-SCA THOUGH SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY GUST TO NEAR 20 KT IN THE BAY
DURING THIS LATE AFTN/EVENING/EARLY AM TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ630-
     631.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...AJZ/WRS
MARINE...LKB




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 222023
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
423 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FOR SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE AND REMAIN
JUST OFF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS WEAK LO PRES OVER SE CANADA WITH ITS
ATTENDANT COLD FRNT STRETCHING ACROSS THE THE PA/MD BORDER. THIS
FRNT WILL DROP THRU THE AREA LATE THIS EVENG AND
OVERNIGHT...WITHOUT ANY PCPN AND ONLY A FEW CLOUDS AS THE COLUMN
REMAINS QUITE DRY (1000-500 MB RH LESS THAN 40%). SFC HI PRES WILL
THEN QUICKLY BLD IN BEHIND THE FRNT LATE TNGT. TEMPS WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES BLO NORMAL...WITH LOWS RANGING FM THE UPR 40S TO MID
50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY DRY WX WITH INCREASING
TEMPS AND HUMIDITY THRU THE PERIOD. SFC HI PRES WILL CENTER
DIRECTLY OVER THE MID ATLC BY MIDDAY SAT...THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE
LATE IN THE DAY AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. LIKE FRI...TEMPS WILL
ONLY MAX OUT IN THE LO TO MID 70S UNDER A SUNNY SKY.

WARMING TREND BEGINS SUN AND MON AS SLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH THE HI
OFFSHORE AND AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE ERN
SEABOARD. EXPECT HI TEMPS SUN IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S...AND THE
MID TO UPR 80S MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE CONTINUES TO APPEAR TO BE DOMINATED WITH A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SE/MID ATLC STATES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LATEST ECMWF/GFS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH
THE GFS STILL A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE AT BREAKING DOWN/WEAKENING
THE RIDGE BY MID TO LATE WEEK (THOUGH NOT TO THE EXTENT IT HAD
BEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS). MODELS ALSO DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH
RESPECT TO 850 MB TEMPERATURES...THE ECMWF REMAINING WARMER BY
ABOUT 2-3 C THAN THE GFS. OVERALL...THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO WARM
/SUMMER- LIKE WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH VERY MINIMAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN...LIMITED TO ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY
LATE AFTN OR EVENING TSTMS DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
DRIFTING INTO THE REGION. HAVE DROPPED POPS ALTOGETHER FOR MON
NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY WED...THEN WILL HAVE JUST 20% POP OVER JUST
THE FAR NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON WED...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE
LATE AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THU/FRI (UP TO 30% FAR
NW). INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH TEMPS WARMING BACK TO THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS
(GFS HIGHS ONLY IN MID 80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS
PATTERN). CONDITIONS WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE
COAST. LOWS AVG IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE N. THIS COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A 5-10KT NW WIND (LOCALLY N AT
ORF/ECG) WILL SHIFT TO S/SW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
WIND WILL BECOME N BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING
~10KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-18KT POSSIBLE AT ORF/ECG EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. GENERALLY A CLEAR SKY IS
EXPECTED WITH SCT MID-CLOUDS POSSIBLE AT RIC AND SBY. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN VICINITY OF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND REMAINING ANCHORED OFF THE COAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS DIMINISHING ACRS THE AREA THIS AFTN...CURRENT CONDS ARE
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ALL ZONES. HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
APPROACHING THE NRN MID ATLC REGION...AND WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH
THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT. NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS WHAT OCCURRED
LAST NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK...BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO YIELD LOW END SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE BAY AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
11-14Z/FRI MORNING. HAVE RAISED ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA HEADLINES FOR
THE BAY...BEGINNING AT 05Z/FRI...AND LASTING THROUGH 11Z N OF NEW
PT COMFORT...AND THROUGH 14Z SOUTH OF NEW PT COMFORT (05Z MAY BE A
TAD EARLY FOR THESE LOWER BAY ZONES BUT DID NOT WANT TO GET TOO
SPECIFIC ATTM). DID NOT RAISE ANY HEADLINES FOR OTHER ZONES AS IT
LOOKS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL EVEN FOR THE BAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KT MAY AFFECT THE RIVERS. SEAS ON THE COASTAL WATERS
BUILD TO 4 FT IF THAT (AND THIS IS GOING WELL ABOVE WAVE WATCH
WHICH KEEPS SEAS CAPPED AT 2-3 FT).

PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS QUICKLY SATURDAY AND EXPECT WINDS TO
AGAIN DROP OFF QUICKLY BY LATE MORNING AS THE HIGH BUILDS
OVERHEAD. WINDS SHIFT TO THE S/SE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. WINDS SHOULD THEN FOLLOW A DIURNAL
PATTERN...INCREASING A BIT MAINLY IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING/EARLY
AM HRS LATE SUN THROUGH MIDWEEK AS UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS WITH SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL GENLY REMAIN
SUB-SCA THOUGH SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY GUST TO NEAR 20 KT IN THE BAY
DURING THIS LATE AFTN/EVENING/EARLY AM TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ630-
     631.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...LKB




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221956
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
356 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FOR SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE AND REMAIN
JUST OFF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS WEAK LO PRES OVER SE CANADA WITH ITS
ATTENDANT COLD FRNT STRETCHING ACROSS THE THE PA/MD BORDER. THIS
FRNT WILL DROP THRU THE AREA LATE THIS EVENG AND
OVERNIGHT...WITHOUT ANY PCPN AND ONLY A FEW CLOUDS AS THE COLUMN
REMAINS QUITE DRY (1000-500 MB RH LESS THAN 40%). SFC HI PRES WILL
THEN QUICKLY BLD IN BEHIND THE FRNT LATE TNGT. TEMPS WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES BLO NORMAL...WITH LOWS RANGING FM THE UPR 40S TO MID
50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY DRY WX WITH INCREASING
TEMPS AND HUMIDITY THRU THE PERIOD. SFC HI PRES WILL CENTER
DIRECTLY OVER THE MID ATLC BY MIDDAY SAT...THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE
LATE IN THE DAY AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. LIKE FRI...TEMPS WILL
ONLY MAX OUT IN THE LO TO MID 70S UNDER A SUNNY SKY.

WARMING TREND BEGINS SUN AND MON AS SLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH THE HI
OFFSHORE AND AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE ERN
SEABOARD. EXPECT HI TEMPS SUN IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S...AND THE
MID TO UPR 80S MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF REMAINING INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SE GA/FLORIDA SUN
NIGHT...BUILDING BACK NORTH INTO THE MID ATLC STATES MON/TUE.
LATEST GFS DAMPENS THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT BY MIDWEEK...BUT HAS GENLY
TRENDED TO THE STRONGER RIDGE SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF. THIS PATTERN
WILL LEAD TO WARM/SUMMER-LIKE WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. A
WEAK WARM FRONT STILL PROGGED TO LIFT N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
AND NRN MID ATLC REGION LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...BUT BULK OF
PRECIP SHOULD STAY OFF TO OUR N. WILL MAINTAIN A 20% POP ACRS THE
FAR NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS INTO MIDDAY MON...BUT
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
FROM MON-TUE...500 MB HEIGHTS RISE AND BULK OF TSTM ACTIVITY
SHOULD CONTINUE TO STAY OFF TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP A LATE
AFTN/EVENING 20% POP OVER JUST THE FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON
TUE...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA WED/THU (UP TO 30% FAR NW). INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH
TEMPS WARMING BACK TO 85-90 F MON...AND UPPER 80S TO LWR 90S
TUE-THU...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS (GFS HIGHS ONLY IN MID-UPPER
80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS PATTERN). CONDITIONS
WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE N. THIS COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A 5-10KT NW WIND (LOCALLY N AT
ORF/ECG) WILL SHIFT TO S/SW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
WIND WILL BECOME N BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING
~10KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-18KT POSSIBLE AT ORF/ECG EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. GENERALLY A CLEAR SKY IS
EXPECTED WITH SCT MID-CLOUDS POSSIBLE AT RIC AND SBY. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN VICINITY OF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND REMAINING ANCHORED OFF THE COAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT NNW WINDS ~15-20 KT ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
MORNING, WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
MORNING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS STEADILY W/SFC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM QUICKLY EJECTING NE TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGH RES MODELS REFLECTING A FEW MORE GUSTS TO ~25 KT
OVER NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MID-MORNING, SO WILL ALLOW
EXISTING SCA TO EXPIRE ON TIME LATER THIS MORNING...EXPIRING ONLY
LOWER BAY AND SOUND WITH 7AM ISSUANCE. WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT
ON AVERAGE BY AFTN, WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT ALONG THE
COASTAL WATERS LATER TODAY. ANOTHER BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AS COOL ~1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE N.

ANTICIPATE ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW END SCA CONDITIONS WITH
(DRY) SFC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT, AND EXPECT FLAGS WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS TIME FRAME ONCE CURRENT SCA IS DROPPED.
GRADIENT SLACKENS QUICKLY SATURDAY AND EXPECT WINDS TO AGAIN DROP
OFF QUICKLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE
COAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. RESULTANT SFC
FLOW BACKS TO THE S/SE FOR LATER SAT THROUGH MONDAY AVGG AOB 15
KT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ630-
     631.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...LKB




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221956
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
356 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FOR SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE AND REMAIN
JUST OFF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS WEAK LO PRES OVER SE CANADA WITH ITS
ATTENDANT COLD FRNT STRETCHING ACROSS THE THE PA/MD BORDER. THIS
FRNT WILL DROP THRU THE AREA LATE THIS EVENG AND
OVERNIGHT...WITHOUT ANY PCPN AND ONLY A FEW CLOUDS AS THE COLUMN
REMAINS QUITE DRY (1000-500 MB RH LESS THAN 40%). SFC HI PRES WILL
THEN QUICKLY BLD IN BEHIND THE FRNT LATE TNGT. TEMPS WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES BLO NORMAL...WITH LOWS RANGING FM THE UPR 40S TO MID
50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY DRY WX WITH INCREASING
TEMPS AND HUMIDITY THRU THE PERIOD. SFC HI PRES WILL CENTER
DIRECTLY OVER THE MID ATLC BY MIDDAY SAT...THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE
LATE IN THE DAY AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. LIKE FRI...TEMPS WILL
ONLY MAX OUT IN THE LO TO MID 70S UNDER A SUNNY SKY.

WARMING TREND BEGINS SUN AND MON AS SLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH THE HI
OFFSHORE AND AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE ERN
SEABOARD. EXPECT HI TEMPS SUN IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S...AND THE
MID TO UPR 80S MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF REMAINING INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SE GA/FLORIDA SUN
NIGHT...BUILDING BACK NORTH INTO THE MID ATLC STATES MON/TUE.
LATEST GFS DAMPENS THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT BY MIDWEEK...BUT HAS GENLY
TRENDED TO THE STRONGER RIDGE SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF. THIS PATTERN
WILL LEAD TO WARM/SUMMER-LIKE WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. A
WEAK WARM FRONT STILL PROGGED TO LIFT N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
AND NRN MID ATLC REGION LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...BUT BULK OF
PRECIP SHOULD STAY OFF TO OUR N. WILL MAINTAIN A 20% POP ACRS THE
FAR NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS INTO MIDDAY MON...BUT
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
FROM MON-TUE...500 MB HEIGHTS RISE AND BULK OF TSTM ACTIVITY
SHOULD CONTINUE TO STAY OFF TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP A LATE
AFTN/EVENING 20% POP OVER JUST THE FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON
TUE...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA WED/THU (UP TO 30% FAR NW). INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH
TEMPS WARMING BACK TO 85-90 F MON...AND UPPER 80S TO LWR 90S
TUE-THU...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS (GFS HIGHS ONLY IN MID-UPPER
80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS PATTERN). CONDITIONS
WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE N. THIS COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A 5-10KT NW WIND (LOCALLY N AT
ORF/ECG) WILL SHIFT TO S/SW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
WIND WILL BECOME N BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING
~10KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-18KT POSSIBLE AT ORF/ECG EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. GENERALLY A CLEAR SKY IS
EXPECTED WITH SCT MID-CLOUDS POSSIBLE AT RIC AND SBY. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN VICINITY OF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND REMAINING ANCHORED OFF THE COAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT NNW WINDS ~15-20 KT ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
MORNING, WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
MORNING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS STEADILY W/SFC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM QUICKLY EJECTING NE TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGH RES MODELS REFLECTING A FEW MORE GUSTS TO ~25 KT
OVER NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MID-MORNING, SO WILL ALLOW
EXISTING SCA TO EXPIRE ON TIME LATER THIS MORNING...EXPIRING ONLY
LOWER BAY AND SOUND WITH 7AM ISSUANCE. WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT
ON AVERAGE BY AFTN, WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT ALONG THE
COASTAL WATERS LATER TODAY. ANOTHER BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AS COOL ~1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE N.

ANTICIPATE ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW END SCA CONDITIONS WITH
(DRY) SFC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT, AND EXPECT FLAGS WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS TIME FRAME ONCE CURRENT SCA IS DROPPED.
GRADIENT SLACKENS QUICKLY SATURDAY AND EXPECT WINDS TO AGAIN DROP
OFF QUICKLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE
COAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. RESULTANT SFC
FLOW BACKS TO THE S/SE FOR LATER SAT THROUGH MONDAY AVGG AOB 15
KT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ630-
     631.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...LKB



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221956
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
356 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FOR SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE AND REMAIN
JUST OFF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS WEAK LO PRES OVER SE CANADA WITH ITS
ATTENDANT COLD FRNT STRETCHING ACROSS THE THE PA/MD BORDER. THIS
FRNT WILL DROP THRU THE AREA LATE THIS EVENG AND
OVERNIGHT...WITHOUT ANY PCPN AND ONLY A FEW CLOUDS AS THE COLUMN
REMAINS QUITE DRY (1000-500 MB RH LESS THAN 40%). SFC HI PRES WILL
THEN QUICKLY BLD IN BEHIND THE FRNT LATE TNGT. TEMPS WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES BLO NORMAL...WITH LOWS RANGING FM THE UPR 40S TO MID
50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY DRY WX WITH INCREASING
TEMPS AND HUMIDITY THRU THE PERIOD. SFC HI PRES WILL CENTER
DIRECTLY OVER THE MID ATLC BY MIDDAY SAT...THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE
LATE IN THE DAY AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. LIKE FRI...TEMPS WILL
ONLY MAX OUT IN THE LO TO MID 70S UNDER A SUNNY SKY.

WARMING TREND BEGINS SUN AND MON AS SLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH THE HI
OFFSHORE AND AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE ERN
SEABOARD. EXPECT HI TEMPS SUN IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S...AND THE
MID TO UPR 80S MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF REMAINING INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SE GA/FLORIDA SUN
NIGHT...BUILDING BACK NORTH INTO THE MID ATLC STATES MON/TUE.
LATEST GFS DAMPENS THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT BY MIDWEEK...BUT HAS GENLY
TRENDED TO THE STRONGER RIDGE SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF. THIS PATTERN
WILL LEAD TO WARM/SUMMER-LIKE WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. A
WEAK WARM FRONT STILL PROGGED TO LIFT N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
AND NRN MID ATLC REGION LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...BUT BULK OF
PRECIP SHOULD STAY OFF TO OUR N. WILL MAINTAIN A 20% POP ACRS THE
FAR NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS INTO MIDDAY MON...BUT
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
FROM MON-TUE...500 MB HEIGHTS RISE AND BULK OF TSTM ACTIVITY
SHOULD CONTINUE TO STAY OFF TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP A LATE
AFTN/EVENING 20% POP OVER JUST THE FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON
TUE...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA WED/THU (UP TO 30% FAR NW). INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH
TEMPS WARMING BACK TO 85-90 F MON...AND UPPER 80S TO LWR 90S
TUE-THU...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS (GFS HIGHS ONLY IN MID-UPPER
80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS PATTERN). CONDITIONS
WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE N. THIS COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A 5-10KT NW WIND (LOCALLY N AT
ORF/ECG) WILL SHIFT TO S/SW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
WIND WILL BECOME N BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING
~10KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-18KT POSSIBLE AT ORF/ECG EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. GENERALLY A CLEAR SKY IS
EXPECTED WITH SCT MID-CLOUDS POSSIBLE AT RIC AND SBY. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN VICINITY OF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND REMAINING ANCHORED OFF THE COAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT NNW WINDS ~15-20 KT ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
MORNING, WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
MORNING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS STEADILY W/SFC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM QUICKLY EJECTING NE TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGH RES MODELS REFLECTING A FEW MORE GUSTS TO ~25 KT
OVER NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MID-MORNING, SO WILL ALLOW
EXISTING SCA TO EXPIRE ON TIME LATER THIS MORNING...EXPIRING ONLY
LOWER BAY AND SOUND WITH 7AM ISSUANCE. WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT
ON AVERAGE BY AFTN, WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT ALONG THE
COASTAL WATERS LATER TODAY. ANOTHER BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AS COOL ~1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE N.

ANTICIPATE ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW END SCA CONDITIONS WITH
(DRY) SFC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT, AND EXPECT FLAGS WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS TIME FRAME ONCE CURRENT SCA IS DROPPED.
GRADIENT SLACKENS QUICKLY SATURDAY AND EXPECT WINDS TO AGAIN DROP
OFF QUICKLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE
COAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. RESULTANT SFC
FLOW BACKS TO THE S/SE FOR LATER SAT THROUGH MONDAY AVGG AOB 15
KT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ630-
     631.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...LKB



000
FXUS61 KRNK 221948
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
348 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NO MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT OUR REGION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST STAYS
IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND WITH
HEAT AND HUMIDITY ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WITH JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A LATE DAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES FURTHER TO THE EAST...OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...

VISIBLE SATELLITE PICS INDICATE LOTS OF SUNSHINE FOR THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A BAND OF CLOUDS WITH SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS FORMED ALONG AN APPROACHING FRONT TO OUR NORTH. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS HAD A HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE FOR A GOOD WHILE NOW AND
EXPECT THE FRONT TO WASH OUT AS IT ENTERS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT.
THUS EXPECT THE ONLY AFFECTS WE WILL FEEL FROM THE FRONT WILL BE
SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AS ANY PRECIPITATION WILL DISSIPATE
BEFORE IT REACHES US.

ON SATURDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO OUR EAST AND SET
UP A SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW WHICH WILL WARM US UP A FEW
DEGREES FROM TODAY AND START TO INCREASE HUMIDITY LEVELS A BIT. A
STRAY SPRINKLE IS POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE WITH THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RUNNING UP THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE
REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL ZONE...BUT ANY POPS WILL BE BELOW
MENTIONABLE LEVELS AND IT CERTAINLY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A REASON TO
CANCEL A PICNIC SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.

LOWS TONIGHT ARE A BIT CHALLENGING AS ANY CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT DROPPING DOWN WILL INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. STILL
BELIEVE IT WILL GET QUITE CHILLY WITH GENERALLY LOW/MID 40S WEST
OF THE RIDGE AND MID/UPPER 40S EAST. SOME OF THE NORMALLY COOLER
LOCATIONS WEST OF THE RIDGE MAY REACH THE UPPER 30S BY DAYBREAK
BUT BELIEVE EXPECTED DEWPOINTS AND SOME DEGREE OF CLOUDS WILL
PROHIBIT ANY FROST FORMATION AND MITIGATE ANY THREAT TO TENDER
VEGETATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...

TIME TO FIRE UP THE BARBIE!

HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES TRENDING PROGRESSIVELY
WARMER.  WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE...SHOWER PRODUCTION WILL BE KEPT
TO A MINIMUM...THUS EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...

SUMMERLIKE PATTERN TO CLOSE OUT THE LAST WEEK OF MAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK...THE
ACTUAL SURFACE HIGH BECOMING ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS WILL PLACE OUR FORECAST AREA IN AN IN INCREASINGLY MUGGY
PATTERN WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S TO COMPLIMENT THE
UPWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S/NEAR 90.

THE WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEEP
CONVECTION.  FORCING WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY THEN AREAWIDE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
TRIES TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE WEEK APPEARS TO BE
LOW...DYNAMIC SUPPORT LACKING.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT FRIDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE NORM TODAY INTO MONDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT TO THE NORTH WILL BRING SOME BORDERLINE MVFR CLOUDS THROUGH
THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY AT KBLF AND KLWB...HOWEVER
MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN VFR. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME FOG AT
KBLF/KLWB TOWARD DAYBREAK IF BREAKS IN CLOUD DECK ALLOW FOR
ENOUGH RAD COOLING. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AS
CLOUDS START TO DEVELOP WITH EARLY HEATING...BUT THESE SHOULD
QUICKLY LIFT TO VFR. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS MAY BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOUNTAIN AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPCLY BY LATER TUESDAY...WHEN
PERIODS OF MVFR COULD OCCUR MAINLY BLUE RIDGE WEST. OTRW VFR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY OUTSIDE OF ANY LATE DAY CONVECTION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JR/MBS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 221948
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
348 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NO MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT OUR REGION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST STAYS
IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND WITH
HEAT AND HUMIDITY ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WITH JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A LATE DAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES FURTHER TO THE EAST...OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...

VISIBLE SATELLITE PICS INDICATE LOTS OF SUNSHINE FOR THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A BAND OF CLOUDS WITH SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS FORMED ALONG AN APPROACHING FRONT TO OUR NORTH. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS HAD A HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE FOR A GOOD WHILE NOW AND
EXPECT THE FRONT TO WASH OUT AS IT ENTERS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT.
THUS EXPECT THE ONLY AFFECTS WE WILL FEEL FROM THE FRONT WILL BE
SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AS ANY PRECIPITATION WILL DISSIPATE
BEFORE IT REACHES US.

ON SATURDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO OUR EAST AND SET
UP A SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW WHICH WILL WARM US UP A FEW
DEGREES FROM TODAY AND START TO INCREASE HUMIDITY LEVELS A BIT. A
STRAY SPRINKLE IS POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE WITH THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RUNNING UP THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE
REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL ZONE...BUT ANY POPS WILL BE BELOW
MENTIONABLE LEVELS AND IT CERTAINLY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A REASON TO
CANCEL A PICNIC SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.

LOWS TONIGHT ARE A BIT CHALLENGING AS ANY CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT DROPPING DOWN WILL INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. STILL
BELIEVE IT WILL GET QUITE CHILLY WITH GENERALLY LOW/MID 40S WEST
OF THE RIDGE AND MID/UPPER 40S EAST. SOME OF THE NORMALLY COOLER
LOCATIONS WEST OF THE RIDGE MAY REACH THE UPPER 30S BY DAYBREAK
BUT BELIEVE EXPECTED DEWPOINTS AND SOME DEGREE OF CLOUDS WILL
PROHIBIT ANY FROST FORMATION AND MITIGATE ANY THREAT TO TENDER
VEGETATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...

TIME TO FIRE UP THE BARBIE!

HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES TRENDING PROGRESSIVELY
WARMER.  WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE...SHOWER PRODUCTION WILL BE KEPT
TO A MINIMUM...THUS EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...

SUMMERLIKE PATTERN TO CLOSE OUT THE LAST WEEK OF MAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK...THE
ACTUAL SURFACE HIGH BECOMING ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS WILL PLACE OUR FORECAST AREA IN AN IN INCREASINGLY MUGGY
PATTERN WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S TO COMPLIMENT THE
UPWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S/NEAR 90.

THE WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEEP
CONVECTION.  FORCING WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY THEN AREAWIDE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
TRIES TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE WEEK APPEARS TO BE
LOW...DYNAMIC SUPPORT LACKING.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT FRIDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE NORM TODAY INTO MONDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT TO THE NORTH WILL BRING SOME BORDERLINE MVFR CLOUDS THROUGH
THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY AT KBLF AND KLWB...HOWEVER
MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN VFR. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME FOG AT
KBLF/KLWB TOWARD DAYBREAK IF BREAKS IN CLOUD DECK ALLOW FOR
ENOUGH RAD COOLING. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AS
CLOUDS START TO DEVELOP WITH EARLY HEATING...BUT THESE SHOULD
QUICKLY LIFT TO VFR. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS MAY BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOUNTAIN AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPCLY BY LATER TUESDAY...WHEN
PERIODS OF MVFR COULD OCCUR MAINLY BLUE RIDGE WEST. OTRW VFR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY OUTSIDE OF ANY LATE DAY CONVECTION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JR/MBS



000
FXUS61 KLWX 221853
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
253 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NOTICEABLY BELOW NORMAL WITH SOME FROST POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE METRO. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST SUNDAY AND REMAIN IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH MID-
WEEK NEXT WEEK WITH NOTICEABLY HOTTER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS
RETURNING TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A CU FIELD AND SCT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN VICINITY OF A COLD
FRONT IN CENTRAL PA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD INTO MD THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR HAS BEEN PERSISTENT
BRINGING ISO-SCT SHOWERS ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE BEFORE
SUNSET. DUE TO THE DRY CONDITIONS... COVERAGE WILL BE LOW AND ONLY
A SPRINKLE OR BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE. NW WINDS 10-15MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH SHOULD BACK AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON
BECOMING SOUTHWEST.

BEHIND THE FRONT...A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC. WINDS WILL BECOME NW AGAIN AND CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT. DRY AND CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO
THE 40S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE METROS SEEING THE 50S AND THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ALLGHENY FRONT SEEING THE LOW TO MID 30S.
A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY. NRLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS
BELOW CLIMO IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THE RETURN FLOW WILL BE SLOW AND LOWS WILL
ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES MILDER ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS COMPARED TO
FRIDAY NIGHT. HUMIDITY WILL START TO COME BACK HOWEVER.
OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR AS HEIGHTS ALOFT BUILD
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING RIDGE.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST SUNDAY WITH THE
RETURN FLOW RESULTING IN A NOTICEABLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID DAY AS
COMPARED TO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE AROUND 10 DEGREES
WHILE DEW POINT RISE WILL BE MORE LIKE 20 DEGREES. SOME CLOUDS MAY
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AS WARM ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY ALOFT
ALONG THE TAIL END OF A WARM FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE BY TO OUR
NORTHWEST...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH HEIGHTS
CONTINUING TO BUILD ALOFT AHEAD OF THE STILL APPROACHING AND
BUILDING RIDGE AXIS.

CLOUDS WILL MAKE FOR A MUCH MILDER NIGHT ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT PASSES BY TO THE NORTH...BUT AGAIN NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. ON MONDAY THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH OR
SLIGHTLY EXCEED 90 DEGREES IN MANY AREAS. DEW POINTS STILL WON`T
BE TOO HIGH WITH READINGS PROBABLY STAYING IN THE UPPER 50S IN
MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT IT WILL STILL FEEL CONSIDERABLY MORE
SUMMER-LIKE THAN IT WILL ON SATURDAY. WITH THE RIDGE STILL
BUILDING OVERHEAD...AND DEW POINTS NOT ALL THAT HIGH JUST
YET...CONSENSUS APPEARS TO BE FAVORABLE FOR A STORM-FREE DAY SO
HAVE KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ECMWF 500 MB RIDGE OVER MID ATLANTIC REGION SLOWLY MOVING TO EAST
ALLOWING A SHORT WAVE TO AFFECT THE REGION THURSDAY. MOISTURE AND
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY INCREASE ON SOUTHWEST FLOW DURING THE
PERIOD. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NW WINDS
10-15KTS G 20-25KTS WILL SUBSIDE TO 5-10KTS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO VARIABLE
SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH NO
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THE RISK FOR STORMS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS INCREASE
INSTABILITY.

&&

.MARINE...
W-NW WINDS 10-15KTS G 25KTS WILL CONTINUE ON THE WATERS TODAY.
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE ACROSS THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC AND CHESAPEAKE
BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD
SATURDAY AND NW WINDS WILL BECOME SW BY AFTERNOON ALBEIT 5- 10KTS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING FOR
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT DUE
TO THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW...BUT IT WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO
THE RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MDZ501.
VA...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     WVZ501-503-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ531>534-
     537-539>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     535-536-538.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...RCM
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...HAS/RCM
MARINE...HAS/RCM




000
FXUS61 KLWX 221853
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
253 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NOTICEABLY BELOW NORMAL WITH SOME FROST POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE METRO. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST SUNDAY AND REMAIN IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH MID-
WEEK NEXT WEEK WITH NOTICEABLY HOTTER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS
RETURNING TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A CU FIELD AND SCT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN VICINITY OF A COLD
FRONT IN CENTRAL PA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD INTO MD THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR HAS BEEN PERSISTENT
BRINGING ISO-SCT SHOWERS ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE BEFORE
SUNSET. DUE TO THE DRY CONDITIONS... COVERAGE WILL BE LOW AND ONLY
A SPRINKLE OR BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE. NW WINDS 10-15MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH SHOULD BACK AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON
BECOMING SOUTHWEST.

BEHIND THE FRONT...A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC. WINDS WILL BECOME NW AGAIN AND CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT. DRY AND CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO
THE 40S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE METROS SEEING THE 50S AND THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ALLGHENY FRONT SEEING THE LOW TO MID 30S.
A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY. NRLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS
BELOW CLIMO IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THE RETURN FLOW WILL BE SLOW AND LOWS WILL
ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES MILDER ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS COMPARED TO
FRIDAY NIGHT. HUMIDITY WILL START TO COME BACK HOWEVER.
OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR AS HEIGHTS ALOFT BUILD
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING RIDGE.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST SUNDAY WITH THE
RETURN FLOW RESULTING IN A NOTICEABLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID DAY AS
COMPARED TO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE AROUND 10 DEGREES
WHILE DEW POINT RISE WILL BE MORE LIKE 20 DEGREES. SOME CLOUDS MAY
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AS WARM ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY ALOFT
ALONG THE TAIL END OF A WARM FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE BY TO OUR
NORTHWEST...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH HEIGHTS
CONTINUING TO BUILD ALOFT AHEAD OF THE STILL APPROACHING AND
BUILDING RIDGE AXIS.

CLOUDS WILL MAKE FOR A MUCH MILDER NIGHT ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT PASSES BY TO THE NORTH...BUT AGAIN NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. ON MONDAY THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH OR
SLIGHTLY EXCEED 90 DEGREES IN MANY AREAS. DEW POINTS STILL WON`T
BE TOO HIGH WITH READINGS PROBABLY STAYING IN THE UPPER 50S IN
MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT IT WILL STILL FEEL CONSIDERABLY MORE
SUMMER-LIKE THAN IT WILL ON SATURDAY. WITH THE RIDGE STILL
BUILDING OVERHEAD...AND DEW POINTS NOT ALL THAT HIGH JUST
YET...CONSENSUS APPEARS TO BE FAVORABLE FOR A STORM-FREE DAY SO
HAVE KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ECMWF 500 MB RIDGE OVER MID ATLANTIC REGION SLOWLY MOVING TO EAST
ALLOWING A SHORT WAVE TO AFFECT THE REGION THURSDAY. MOISTURE AND
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY INCREASE ON SOUTHWEST FLOW DURING THE
PERIOD. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NW WINDS
10-15KTS G 20-25KTS WILL SUBSIDE TO 5-10KTS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO VARIABLE
SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH NO
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THE RISK FOR STORMS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS INCREASE
INSTABILITY.

&&

.MARINE...
W-NW WINDS 10-15KTS G 25KTS WILL CONTINUE ON THE WATERS TODAY.
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE ACROSS THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC AND CHESAPEAKE
BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD
SATURDAY AND NW WINDS WILL BECOME SW BY AFTERNOON ALBEIT 5- 10KTS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING FOR
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT DUE
TO THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW...BUT IT WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO
THE RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MDZ501.
VA...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     WVZ501-503-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ531>534-
     537-539>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     535-536-538.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...RCM
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...HAS/RCM
MARINE...HAS/RCM




000
FXUS61 KLWX 221853
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
253 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NOTICEABLY BELOW NORMAL WITH SOME FROST POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE METRO. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST SUNDAY AND REMAIN IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH MID-
WEEK NEXT WEEK WITH NOTICEABLY HOTTER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS
RETURNING TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A CU FIELD AND SCT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN VICINITY OF A COLD
FRONT IN CENTRAL PA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD INTO MD THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR HAS BEEN PERSISTENT
BRINGING ISO-SCT SHOWERS ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE BEFORE
SUNSET. DUE TO THE DRY CONDITIONS... COVERAGE WILL BE LOW AND ONLY
A SPRINKLE OR BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE. NW WINDS 10-15MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH SHOULD BACK AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON
BECOMING SOUTHWEST.

BEHIND THE FRONT...A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC. WINDS WILL BECOME NW AGAIN AND CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT. DRY AND CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO
THE 40S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE METROS SEEING THE 50S AND THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ALLGHENY FRONT SEEING THE LOW TO MID 30S.
A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY. NRLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS
BELOW CLIMO IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THE RETURN FLOW WILL BE SLOW AND LOWS WILL
ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES MILDER ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS COMPARED TO
FRIDAY NIGHT. HUMIDITY WILL START TO COME BACK HOWEVER.
OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR AS HEIGHTS ALOFT BUILD
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING RIDGE.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST SUNDAY WITH THE
RETURN FLOW RESULTING IN A NOTICEABLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID DAY AS
COMPARED TO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE AROUND 10 DEGREES
WHILE DEW POINT RISE WILL BE MORE LIKE 20 DEGREES. SOME CLOUDS MAY
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AS WARM ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY ALOFT
ALONG THE TAIL END OF A WARM FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE BY TO OUR
NORTHWEST...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH HEIGHTS
CONTINUING TO BUILD ALOFT AHEAD OF THE STILL APPROACHING AND
BUILDING RIDGE AXIS.

CLOUDS WILL MAKE FOR A MUCH MILDER NIGHT ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT PASSES BY TO THE NORTH...BUT AGAIN NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. ON MONDAY THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH OR
SLIGHTLY EXCEED 90 DEGREES IN MANY AREAS. DEW POINTS STILL WON`T
BE TOO HIGH WITH READINGS PROBABLY STAYING IN THE UPPER 50S IN
MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT IT WILL STILL FEEL CONSIDERABLY MORE
SUMMER-LIKE THAN IT WILL ON SATURDAY. WITH THE RIDGE STILL
BUILDING OVERHEAD...AND DEW POINTS NOT ALL THAT HIGH JUST
YET...CONSENSUS APPEARS TO BE FAVORABLE FOR A STORM-FREE DAY SO
HAVE KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ECMWF 500 MB RIDGE OVER MID ATLANTIC REGION SLOWLY MOVING TO EAST
ALLOWING A SHORT WAVE TO AFFECT THE REGION THURSDAY. MOISTURE AND
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY INCREASE ON SOUTHWEST FLOW DURING THE
PERIOD. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NW WINDS
10-15KTS G 20-25KTS WILL SUBSIDE TO 5-10KTS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO VARIABLE
SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH NO
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THE RISK FOR STORMS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS INCREASE
INSTABILITY.

&&

.MARINE...
W-NW WINDS 10-15KTS G 25KTS WILL CONTINUE ON THE WATERS TODAY.
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE ACROSS THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC AND CHESAPEAKE
BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD
SATURDAY AND NW WINDS WILL BECOME SW BY AFTERNOON ALBEIT 5- 10KTS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING FOR
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT DUE
TO THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW...BUT IT WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO
THE RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MDZ501.
VA...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     WVZ501-503-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ531>534-
     537-539>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     535-536-538.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...RCM
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...HAS/RCM
MARINE...HAS/RCM




000
FXUS61 KLWX 221853
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
253 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NOTICEABLY BELOW NORMAL WITH SOME FROST POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE METRO. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST SUNDAY AND REMAIN IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH MID-
WEEK NEXT WEEK WITH NOTICEABLY HOTTER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS
RETURNING TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A CU FIELD AND SCT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN VICINITY OF A COLD
FRONT IN CENTRAL PA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD INTO MD THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR HAS BEEN PERSISTENT
BRINGING ISO-SCT SHOWERS ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE BEFORE
SUNSET. DUE TO THE DRY CONDITIONS... COVERAGE WILL BE LOW AND ONLY
A SPRINKLE OR BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE. NW WINDS 10-15MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH SHOULD BACK AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON
BECOMING SOUTHWEST.

BEHIND THE FRONT...A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC. WINDS WILL BECOME NW AGAIN AND CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT. DRY AND CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO
THE 40S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE METROS SEEING THE 50S AND THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ALLGHENY FRONT SEEING THE LOW TO MID 30S.
A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY. NRLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS
BELOW CLIMO IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THE RETURN FLOW WILL BE SLOW AND LOWS WILL
ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES MILDER ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS COMPARED TO
FRIDAY NIGHT. HUMIDITY WILL START TO COME BACK HOWEVER.
OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR AS HEIGHTS ALOFT BUILD
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING RIDGE.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST SUNDAY WITH THE
RETURN FLOW RESULTING IN A NOTICEABLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID DAY AS
COMPARED TO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE AROUND 10 DEGREES
WHILE DEW POINT RISE WILL BE MORE LIKE 20 DEGREES. SOME CLOUDS MAY
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AS WARM ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY ALOFT
ALONG THE TAIL END OF A WARM FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE BY TO OUR
NORTHWEST...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH HEIGHTS
CONTINUING TO BUILD ALOFT AHEAD OF THE STILL APPROACHING AND
BUILDING RIDGE AXIS.

CLOUDS WILL MAKE FOR A MUCH MILDER NIGHT ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT PASSES BY TO THE NORTH...BUT AGAIN NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. ON MONDAY THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH OR
SLIGHTLY EXCEED 90 DEGREES IN MANY AREAS. DEW POINTS STILL WON`T
BE TOO HIGH WITH READINGS PROBABLY STAYING IN THE UPPER 50S IN
MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT IT WILL STILL FEEL CONSIDERABLY MORE
SUMMER-LIKE THAN IT WILL ON SATURDAY. WITH THE RIDGE STILL
BUILDING OVERHEAD...AND DEW POINTS NOT ALL THAT HIGH JUST
YET...CONSENSUS APPEARS TO BE FAVORABLE FOR A STORM-FREE DAY SO
HAVE KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ECMWF 500 MB RIDGE OVER MID ATLANTIC REGION SLOWLY MOVING TO EAST
ALLOWING A SHORT WAVE TO AFFECT THE REGION THURSDAY. MOISTURE AND
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY INCREASE ON SOUTHWEST FLOW DURING THE
PERIOD. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NW WINDS
10-15KTS G 20-25KTS WILL SUBSIDE TO 5-10KTS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO VARIABLE
SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH NO
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THE RISK FOR STORMS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS INCREASE
INSTABILITY.

&&

.MARINE...
W-NW WINDS 10-15KTS G 25KTS WILL CONTINUE ON THE WATERS TODAY.
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE ACROSS THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC AND CHESAPEAKE
BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD
SATURDAY AND NW WINDS WILL BECOME SW BY AFTERNOON ALBEIT 5- 10KTS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING FOR
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT DUE
TO THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW...BUT IT WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO
THE RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MDZ501.
VA...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     WVZ501-503-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ531>534-
     537-539>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     535-536-538.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...RCM
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...HAS/RCM
MARINE...HAS/RCM




000
FXUS61 KLWX 221853
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
253 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NOTICEABLY BELOW NORMAL WITH SOME FROST POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE METRO. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST SUNDAY AND REMAIN IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH MID-
WEEK NEXT WEEK WITH NOTICEABLY HOTTER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS
RETURNING TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A CU FIELD AND SCT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN VICINITY OF A COLD
FRONT IN CENTRAL PA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD INTO MD THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR HAS BEEN PERSISTENT
BRINGING ISO-SCT SHOWERS ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE BEFORE
SUNSET. DUE TO THE DRY CONDITIONS... COVERAGE WILL BE LOW AND ONLY
A SPRINKLE OR BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE. NW WINDS 10-15MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH SHOULD BACK AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON
BECOMING SOUTHWEST.

BEHIND THE FRONT...A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC. WINDS WILL BECOME NW AGAIN AND CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT. DRY AND CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO
THE 40S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE METROS SEEING THE 50S AND THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ALLGHENY FRONT SEEING THE LOW TO MID 30S.
A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY. NRLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS
BELOW CLIMO IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THE RETURN FLOW WILL BE SLOW AND LOWS WILL
ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES MILDER ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS COMPARED TO
FRIDAY NIGHT. HUMIDITY WILL START TO COME BACK HOWEVER.
OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR AS HEIGHTS ALOFT BUILD
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING RIDGE.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST SUNDAY WITH THE
RETURN FLOW RESULTING IN A NOTICEABLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID DAY AS
COMPARED TO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE AROUND 10 DEGREES
WHILE DEW POINT RISE WILL BE MORE LIKE 20 DEGREES. SOME CLOUDS MAY
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AS WARM ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY ALOFT
ALONG THE TAIL END OF A WARM FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE BY TO OUR
NORTHWEST...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH HEIGHTS
CONTINUING TO BUILD ALOFT AHEAD OF THE STILL APPROACHING AND
BUILDING RIDGE AXIS.

CLOUDS WILL MAKE FOR A MUCH MILDER NIGHT ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT PASSES BY TO THE NORTH...BUT AGAIN NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. ON MONDAY THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH OR
SLIGHTLY EXCEED 90 DEGREES IN MANY AREAS. DEW POINTS STILL WON`T
BE TOO HIGH WITH READINGS PROBABLY STAYING IN THE UPPER 50S IN
MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT IT WILL STILL FEEL CONSIDERABLY MORE
SUMMER-LIKE THAN IT WILL ON SATURDAY. WITH THE RIDGE STILL
BUILDING OVERHEAD...AND DEW POINTS NOT ALL THAT HIGH JUST
YET...CONSENSUS APPEARS TO BE FAVORABLE FOR A STORM-FREE DAY SO
HAVE KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ECMWF 500 MB RIDGE OVER MID ATLANTIC REGION SLOWLY MOVING TO EAST
ALLOWING A SHORT WAVE TO AFFECT THE REGION THURSDAY. MOISTURE AND
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY INCREASE ON SOUTHWEST FLOW DURING THE
PERIOD. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NW WINDS
10-15KTS G 20-25KTS WILL SUBSIDE TO 5-10KTS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO VARIABLE
SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH NO
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THE RISK FOR STORMS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS INCREASE
INSTABILITY.

&&

.MARINE...
W-NW WINDS 10-15KTS G 25KTS WILL CONTINUE ON THE WATERS TODAY.
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE ACROSS THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC AND CHESAPEAKE
BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD
SATURDAY AND NW WINDS WILL BECOME SW BY AFTERNOON ALBEIT 5- 10KTS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING FOR
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT DUE
TO THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW...BUT IT WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO
THE RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MDZ501.
VA...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     WVZ501-503-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ531>534-
     537-539>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     535-536-538.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...RCM
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...HAS/RCM
MARINE...HAS/RCM




000
FXUS61 KLWX 221853
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
253 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NOTICEABLY BELOW NORMAL WITH SOME FROST POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE METRO. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST SUNDAY AND REMAIN IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH MID-
WEEK NEXT WEEK WITH NOTICEABLY HOTTER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS
RETURNING TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A CU FIELD AND SCT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN VICINITY OF A COLD
FRONT IN CENTRAL PA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD INTO MD THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR HAS BEEN PERSISTENT
BRINGING ISO-SCT SHOWERS ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE BEFORE
SUNSET. DUE TO THE DRY CONDITIONS... COVERAGE WILL BE LOW AND ONLY
A SPRINKLE OR BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE. NW WINDS 10-15MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH SHOULD BACK AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON
BECOMING SOUTHWEST.

BEHIND THE FRONT...A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC. WINDS WILL BECOME NW AGAIN AND CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT. DRY AND CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO
THE 40S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE METROS SEEING THE 50S AND THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ALLGHENY FRONT SEEING THE LOW TO MID 30S.
A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY. NRLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS
BELOW CLIMO IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THE RETURN FLOW WILL BE SLOW AND LOWS WILL
ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES MILDER ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS COMPARED TO
FRIDAY NIGHT. HUMIDITY WILL START TO COME BACK HOWEVER.
OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR AS HEIGHTS ALOFT BUILD
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING RIDGE.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST SUNDAY WITH THE
RETURN FLOW RESULTING IN A NOTICEABLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID DAY AS
COMPARED TO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE AROUND 10 DEGREES
WHILE DEW POINT RISE WILL BE MORE LIKE 20 DEGREES. SOME CLOUDS MAY
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AS WARM ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY ALOFT
ALONG THE TAIL END OF A WARM FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE BY TO OUR
NORTHWEST...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH HEIGHTS
CONTINUING TO BUILD ALOFT AHEAD OF THE STILL APPROACHING AND
BUILDING RIDGE AXIS.

CLOUDS WILL MAKE FOR A MUCH MILDER NIGHT ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT PASSES BY TO THE NORTH...BUT AGAIN NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. ON MONDAY THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH OR
SLIGHTLY EXCEED 90 DEGREES IN MANY AREAS. DEW POINTS STILL WON`T
BE TOO HIGH WITH READINGS PROBABLY STAYING IN THE UPPER 50S IN
MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT IT WILL STILL FEEL CONSIDERABLY MORE
SUMMER-LIKE THAN IT WILL ON SATURDAY. WITH THE RIDGE STILL
BUILDING OVERHEAD...AND DEW POINTS NOT ALL THAT HIGH JUST
YET...CONSENSUS APPEARS TO BE FAVORABLE FOR A STORM-FREE DAY SO
HAVE KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ECMWF 500 MB RIDGE OVER MID ATLANTIC REGION SLOWLY MOVING TO EAST
ALLOWING A SHORT WAVE TO AFFECT THE REGION THURSDAY. MOISTURE AND
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY INCREASE ON SOUTHWEST FLOW DURING THE
PERIOD. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NW WINDS
10-15KTS G 20-25KTS WILL SUBSIDE TO 5-10KTS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO VARIABLE
SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH NO
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THE RISK FOR STORMS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS INCREASE
INSTABILITY.

&&

.MARINE...
W-NW WINDS 10-15KTS G 25KTS WILL CONTINUE ON THE WATERS TODAY.
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE ACROSS THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC AND CHESAPEAKE
BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD
SATURDAY AND NW WINDS WILL BECOME SW BY AFTERNOON ALBEIT 5- 10KTS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING FOR
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT DUE
TO THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW...BUT IT WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO
THE RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MDZ501.
VA...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     WVZ501-503-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ531>534-
     537-539>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     535-536-538.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...RCM
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...HAS/RCM
MARINE...HAS/RCM



000
FXUS61 KRNK 221809
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
209 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE MIDWEST AND BRING OVERALL
PLEASANT WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH
JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OF THUNDERSTORM WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW
NORMAL ON FRIDAY...BUT HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THE
INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 925 AM EDT FRIDAY...

EARLY MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW SOME LOW CLOUDS
HANGING BACK OVER THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE MIXING
OUT THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS FROM APPROACHING WEAK FRONT TO THE NORTH
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE GREENBRIER VALLEY/ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS LATE
IN THE DAY. ONE CAVEAT IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME OROGRAPHIC
CIRRUS BUT DO NOT SEE ANY SIGNS OF THIS YET SO WILL NOT INCLUDE
ANY AT THIS TIME. 12Z RNK SOUNDING SUPPORTS CURRENT FORECAST MAX
TEMPS GENERALLY 70 TO 75 EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH 65 TO 70
WEST.

PREVIOUS AFD...

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY OUT
TO SEA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A SHARP H5 TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS BRINGING A BRIEF SHOT OF DRIER AND COOLER AIR
DOWN ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH UPSLOPE CLOUDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD TODAY
WITH CLOUDS DISSIPATING EVEN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY BUT LITTLE
SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE BEHIND IT. MAIN EFFECT MAY BE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS FOR THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AND ALLEGHANY
HIGHLANDS. OVERNIGHT LOOKS DRY AND AND MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...LOW 40 FAR NW TO NEAR 50 SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT FRIDAY...

THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE UNITED STATES.
CONCURRENTLY...AN UPPER LOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...WHILE ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL FEATURES ALLOW FOR
PLENTY OF WET AND STORMY WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY.

FOR OUR AREA DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ANTICIPATE A TREND TOWARDS
PROGRESSIVE WARMER TEMPERATURES THANKS TO THE BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE...AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE CENTER OF THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY
MEMORIAL DAY...THE 80S WILL BE COMMON PLACE WITH THE UPPER END OF
THIS RANGE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE PRECIPITATION FREE EACH OF THESE DAYS AND
NIGHTS. HOWEVER...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA ON MEMORIAL DAY AND NIGHT. THESE WILL BE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE CENTRAL CONUS SYSTEM
GRADUALLY GETTING CLOSER TO THIS REGION...AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT SKIRTING THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING IN THIS SAME REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...

WARMING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AMPLIFIES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...THE ACTUAL SURFACE
HIGH BECOMING ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST.

THIS WILL PLACE OUR FORECAST AREA IN A WARM/HUMID PATTERN WITH
MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEEP CONVECTION.  FORCING WILL BE MAINLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...SO LOOK FOR BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS TO BE ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AND LITTLE OR NO THREAT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT/TROF OVER THE MIDWEST MAY MOVE CLOSE ENOUGH TO US
BY MID WEEK TO HELP PROVIDE A BETTER FOCUS FOR DEEP CONVECTION...BUT
THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN LOW AS AVAILABLE
DYNAMICS ARE LACKING. TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEK LOOK TO BE QUITE
SUMMERLIKE WITH MUGGY HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 EAST...AND BALMY LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT FRIDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE NORM TODAY INTO MONDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT TO THE NORTH WILL BRING SOME BORDERLINE MVFR CLOUDS THROUGH
THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY AT KBLF AND KLWB...HOWEVER
MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN VFR. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME FOG AT
KBLF/KLWB TOWARD DAYBREAK IF BREAKS IN CLOUD DECK ALLOW FOR
ENOUGH RAD COOLING. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AS
CLOUDS START TO DEVELOP WITH EARLY HEATING...BUT THESE SHOULD
QUICKLY LIFT TO VFR. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS MAY BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOUNTAIN AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPCLY BY LATER TUESDAY...WHEN
PERIODS OF MVFR COULD OCCUR MAINLY BLUE RIDGE WEST. OTRW VFR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY OUTSIDE OF ANY LATE DAY CONVECTION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS/PC
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JR/MBS



000
FXUS61 KRNK 221809
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
209 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE MIDWEST AND BRING OVERALL
PLEASANT WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH
JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OF THUNDERSTORM WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW
NORMAL ON FRIDAY...BUT HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THE
INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 925 AM EDT FRIDAY...

EARLY MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW SOME LOW CLOUDS
HANGING BACK OVER THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE MIXING
OUT THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS FROM APPROACHING WEAK FRONT TO THE NORTH
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE GREENBRIER VALLEY/ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS LATE
IN THE DAY. ONE CAVEAT IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME OROGRAPHIC
CIRRUS BUT DO NOT SEE ANY SIGNS OF THIS YET SO WILL NOT INCLUDE
ANY AT THIS TIME. 12Z RNK SOUNDING SUPPORTS CURRENT FORECAST MAX
TEMPS GENERALLY 70 TO 75 EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH 65 TO 70
WEST.

PREVIOUS AFD...

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY OUT
TO SEA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A SHARP H5 TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS BRINGING A BRIEF SHOT OF DRIER AND COOLER AIR
DOWN ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH UPSLOPE CLOUDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD TODAY
WITH CLOUDS DISSIPATING EVEN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY BUT LITTLE
SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE BEHIND IT. MAIN EFFECT MAY BE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS FOR THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AND ALLEGHANY
HIGHLANDS. OVERNIGHT LOOKS DRY AND AND MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...LOW 40 FAR NW TO NEAR 50 SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT FRIDAY...

THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE UNITED STATES.
CONCURRENTLY...AN UPPER LOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...WHILE ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL FEATURES ALLOW FOR
PLENTY OF WET AND STORMY WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY.

FOR OUR AREA DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ANTICIPATE A TREND TOWARDS
PROGRESSIVE WARMER TEMPERATURES THANKS TO THE BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE...AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE CENTER OF THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY
MEMORIAL DAY...THE 80S WILL BE COMMON PLACE WITH THE UPPER END OF
THIS RANGE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE PRECIPITATION FREE EACH OF THESE DAYS AND
NIGHTS. HOWEVER...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA ON MEMORIAL DAY AND NIGHT. THESE WILL BE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE CENTRAL CONUS SYSTEM
GRADUALLY GETTING CLOSER TO THIS REGION...AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT SKIRTING THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING IN THIS SAME REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...

WARMING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AMPLIFIES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...THE ACTUAL SURFACE
HIGH BECOMING ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST.

THIS WILL PLACE OUR FORECAST AREA IN A WARM/HUMID PATTERN WITH
MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEEP CONVECTION.  FORCING WILL BE MAINLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...SO LOOK FOR BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS TO BE ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AND LITTLE OR NO THREAT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT/TROF OVER THE MIDWEST MAY MOVE CLOSE ENOUGH TO US
BY MID WEEK TO HELP PROVIDE A BETTER FOCUS FOR DEEP CONVECTION...BUT
THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN LOW AS AVAILABLE
DYNAMICS ARE LACKING. TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEK LOOK TO BE QUITE
SUMMERLIKE WITH MUGGY HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 EAST...AND BALMY LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT FRIDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE NORM TODAY INTO MONDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT TO THE NORTH WILL BRING SOME BORDERLINE MVFR CLOUDS THROUGH
THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY AT KBLF AND KLWB...HOWEVER
MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN VFR. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME FOG AT
KBLF/KLWB TOWARD DAYBREAK IF BREAKS IN CLOUD DECK ALLOW FOR
ENOUGH RAD COOLING. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AS
CLOUDS START TO DEVELOP WITH EARLY HEATING...BUT THESE SHOULD
QUICKLY LIFT TO VFR. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS MAY BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOUNTAIN AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPCLY BY LATER TUESDAY...WHEN
PERIODS OF MVFR COULD OCCUR MAINLY BLUE RIDGE WEST. OTRW VFR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY OUTSIDE OF ANY LATE DAY CONVECTION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS/PC
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JR/MBS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 221809
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
209 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE MIDWEST AND BRING OVERALL
PLEASANT WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH
JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OF THUNDERSTORM WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW
NORMAL ON FRIDAY...BUT HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THE
INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 925 AM EDT FRIDAY...

EARLY MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW SOME LOW CLOUDS
HANGING BACK OVER THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE MIXING
OUT THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS FROM APPROACHING WEAK FRONT TO THE NORTH
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE GREENBRIER VALLEY/ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS LATE
IN THE DAY. ONE CAVEAT IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME OROGRAPHIC
CIRRUS BUT DO NOT SEE ANY SIGNS OF THIS YET SO WILL NOT INCLUDE
ANY AT THIS TIME. 12Z RNK SOUNDING SUPPORTS CURRENT FORECAST MAX
TEMPS GENERALLY 70 TO 75 EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH 65 TO 70
WEST.

PREVIOUS AFD...

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY OUT
TO SEA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A SHARP H5 TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS BRINGING A BRIEF SHOT OF DRIER AND COOLER AIR
DOWN ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH UPSLOPE CLOUDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD TODAY
WITH CLOUDS DISSIPATING EVEN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY BUT LITTLE
SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE BEHIND IT. MAIN EFFECT MAY BE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS FOR THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AND ALLEGHANY
HIGHLANDS. OVERNIGHT LOOKS DRY AND AND MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...LOW 40 FAR NW TO NEAR 50 SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT FRIDAY...

THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE UNITED STATES.
CONCURRENTLY...AN UPPER LOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...WHILE ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL FEATURES ALLOW FOR
PLENTY OF WET AND STORMY WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY.

FOR OUR AREA DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ANTICIPATE A TREND TOWARDS
PROGRESSIVE WARMER TEMPERATURES THANKS TO THE BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE...AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE CENTER OF THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY
MEMORIAL DAY...THE 80S WILL BE COMMON PLACE WITH THE UPPER END OF
THIS RANGE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE PRECIPITATION FREE EACH OF THESE DAYS AND
NIGHTS. HOWEVER...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA ON MEMORIAL DAY AND NIGHT. THESE WILL BE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE CENTRAL CONUS SYSTEM
GRADUALLY GETTING CLOSER TO THIS REGION...AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT SKIRTING THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING IN THIS SAME REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...

WARMING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AMPLIFIES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...THE ACTUAL SURFACE
HIGH BECOMING ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST.

THIS WILL PLACE OUR FORECAST AREA IN A WARM/HUMID PATTERN WITH
MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEEP CONVECTION.  FORCING WILL BE MAINLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...SO LOOK FOR BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS TO BE ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AND LITTLE OR NO THREAT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT/TROF OVER THE MIDWEST MAY MOVE CLOSE ENOUGH TO US
BY MID WEEK TO HELP PROVIDE A BETTER FOCUS FOR DEEP CONVECTION...BUT
THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN LOW AS AVAILABLE
DYNAMICS ARE LACKING. TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEK LOOK TO BE QUITE
SUMMERLIKE WITH MUGGY HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 EAST...AND BALMY LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT FRIDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE NORM TODAY INTO MONDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT TO THE NORTH WILL BRING SOME BORDERLINE MVFR CLOUDS THROUGH
THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY AT KBLF AND KLWB...HOWEVER
MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN VFR. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME FOG AT
KBLF/KLWB TOWARD DAYBREAK IF BREAKS IN CLOUD DECK ALLOW FOR
ENOUGH RAD COOLING. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AS
CLOUDS START TO DEVELOP WITH EARLY HEATING...BUT THESE SHOULD
QUICKLY LIFT TO VFR. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS MAY BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOUNTAIN AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPCLY BY LATER TUESDAY...WHEN
PERIODS OF MVFR COULD OCCUR MAINLY BLUE RIDGE WEST. OTRW VFR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY OUTSIDE OF ANY LATE DAY CONVECTION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS/PC
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JR/MBS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 221809
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
209 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE MIDWEST AND BRING OVERALL
PLEASANT WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH
JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OF THUNDERSTORM WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW
NORMAL ON FRIDAY...BUT HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THE
INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 925 AM EDT FRIDAY...

EARLY MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW SOME LOW CLOUDS
HANGING BACK OVER THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE MIXING
OUT THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS FROM APPROACHING WEAK FRONT TO THE NORTH
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE GREENBRIER VALLEY/ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS LATE
IN THE DAY. ONE CAVEAT IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME OROGRAPHIC
CIRRUS BUT DO NOT SEE ANY SIGNS OF THIS YET SO WILL NOT INCLUDE
ANY AT THIS TIME. 12Z RNK SOUNDING SUPPORTS CURRENT FORECAST MAX
TEMPS GENERALLY 70 TO 75 EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH 65 TO 70
WEST.

PREVIOUS AFD...

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY OUT
TO SEA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A SHARP H5 TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS BRINGING A BRIEF SHOT OF DRIER AND COOLER AIR
DOWN ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH UPSLOPE CLOUDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD TODAY
WITH CLOUDS DISSIPATING EVEN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY BUT LITTLE
SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE BEHIND IT. MAIN EFFECT MAY BE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS FOR THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AND ALLEGHANY
HIGHLANDS. OVERNIGHT LOOKS DRY AND AND MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...LOW 40 FAR NW TO NEAR 50 SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT FRIDAY...

THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE UNITED STATES.
CONCURRENTLY...AN UPPER LOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...WHILE ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL FEATURES ALLOW FOR
PLENTY OF WET AND STORMY WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY.

FOR OUR AREA DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ANTICIPATE A TREND TOWARDS
PROGRESSIVE WARMER TEMPERATURES THANKS TO THE BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE...AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE CENTER OF THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY
MEMORIAL DAY...THE 80S WILL BE COMMON PLACE WITH THE UPPER END OF
THIS RANGE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE PRECIPITATION FREE EACH OF THESE DAYS AND
NIGHTS. HOWEVER...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA ON MEMORIAL DAY AND NIGHT. THESE WILL BE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE CENTRAL CONUS SYSTEM
GRADUALLY GETTING CLOSER TO THIS REGION...AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT SKIRTING THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING IN THIS SAME REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...

WARMING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AMPLIFIES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...THE ACTUAL SURFACE
HIGH BECOMING ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST.

THIS WILL PLACE OUR FORECAST AREA IN A WARM/HUMID PATTERN WITH
MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEEP CONVECTION.  FORCING WILL BE MAINLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...SO LOOK FOR BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS TO BE ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AND LITTLE OR NO THREAT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT/TROF OVER THE MIDWEST MAY MOVE CLOSE ENOUGH TO US
BY MID WEEK TO HELP PROVIDE A BETTER FOCUS FOR DEEP CONVECTION...BUT
THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN LOW AS AVAILABLE
DYNAMICS ARE LACKING. TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEK LOOK TO BE QUITE
SUMMERLIKE WITH MUGGY HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 EAST...AND BALMY LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT FRIDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE NORM TODAY INTO MONDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT TO THE NORTH WILL BRING SOME BORDERLINE MVFR CLOUDS THROUGH
THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY AT KBLF AND KLWB...HOWEVER
MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN VFR. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME FOG AT
KBLF/KLWB TOWARD DAYBREAK IF BREAKS IN CLOUD DECK ALLOW FOR
ENOUGH RAD COOLING. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AS
CLOUDS START TO DEVELOP WITH EARLY HEATING...BUT THESE SHOULD
QUICKLY LIFT TO VFR. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS MAY BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOUNTAIN AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPCLY BY LATER TUESDAY...WHEN
PERIODS OF MVFR COULD OCCUR MAINLY BLUE RIDGE WEST. OTRW VFR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY OUTSIDE OF ANY LATE DAY CONVECTION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS/PC
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JR/MBS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 221809
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
209 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE MIDWEST AND BRING OVERALL
PLEASANT WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH
JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OF THUNDERSTORM WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW
NORMAL ON FRIDAY...BUT HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THE
INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 925 AM EDT FRIDAY...

EARLY MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW SOME LOW CLOUDS
HANGING BACK OVER THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE MIXING
OUT THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS FROM APPROACHING WEAK FRONT TO THE NORTH
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE GREENBRIER VALLEY/ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS LATE
IN THE DAY. ONE CAVEAT IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME OROGRAPHIC
CIRRUS BUT DO NOT SEE ANY SIGNS OF THIS YET SO WILL NOT INCLUDE
ANY AT THIS TIME. 12Z RNK SOUNDING SUPPORTS CURRENT FORECAST MAX
TEMPS GENERALLY 70 TO 75 EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH 65 TO 70
WEST.

PREVIOUS AFD...

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY OUT
TO SEA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A SHARP H5 TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS BRINGING A BRIEF SHOT OF DRIER AND COOLER AIR
DOWN ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH UPSLOPE CLOUDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD TODAY
WITH CLOUDS DISSIPATING EVEN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY BUT LITTLE
SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE BEHIND IT. MAIN EFFECT MAY BE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS FOR THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AND ALLEGHANY
HIGHLANDS. OVERNIGHT LOOKS DRY AND AND MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...LOW 40 FAR NW TO NEAR 50 SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT FRIDAY...

THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE UNITED STATES.
CONCURRENTLY...AN UPPER LOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...WHILE ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL FEATURES ALLOW FOR
PLENTY OF WET AND STORMY WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY.

FOR OUR AREA DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ANTICIPATE A TREND TOWARDS
PROGRESSIVE WARMER TEMPERATURES THANKS TO THE BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE...AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE CENTER OF THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY
MEMORIAL DAY...THE 80S WILL BE COMMON PLACE WITH THE UPPER END OF
THIS RANGE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE PRECIPITATION FREE EACH OF THESE DAYS AND
NIGHTS. HOWEVER...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA ON MEMORIAL DAY AND NIGHT. THESE WILL BE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE CENTRAL CONUS SYSTEM
GRADUALLY GETTING CLOSER TO THIS REGION...AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT SKIRTING THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING IN THIS SAME REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...

WARMING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AMPLIFIES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...THE ACTUAL SURFACE
HIGH BECOMING ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST.

THIS WILL PLACE OUR FORECAST AREA IN A WARM/HUMID PATTERN WITH
MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEEP CONVECTION.  FORCING WILL BE MAINLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...SO LOOK FOR BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS TO BE ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AND LITTLE OR NO THREAT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT/TROF OVER THE MIDWEST MAY MOVE CLOSE ENOUGH TO US
BY MID WEEK TO HELP PROVIDE A BETTER FOCUS FOR DEEP CONVECTION...BUT
THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN LOW AS AVAILABLE
DYNAMICS ARE LACKING. TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEK LOOK TO BE QUITE
SUMMERLIKE WITH MUGGY HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 EAST...AND BALMY LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT FRIDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE NORM TODAY INTO MONDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT TO THE NORTH WILL BRING SOME BORDERLINE MVFR CLOUDS THROUGH
THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY AT KBLF AND KLWB...HOWEVER
MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN VFR. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME FOG AT
KBLF/KLWB TOWARD DAYBREAK IF BREAKS IN CLOUD DECK ALLOW FOR
ENOUGH RAD COOLING. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AS
CLOUDS START TO DEVELOP WITH EARLY HEATING...BUT THESE SHOULD
QUICKLY LIFT TO VFR. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS MAY BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOUNTAIN AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPCLY BY LATER TUESDAY...WHEN
PERIODS OF MVFR COULD OCCUR MAINLY BLUE RIDGE WEST. OTRW VFR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY OUTSIDE OF ANY LATE DAY CONVECTION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS/PC
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JR/MBS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 221809
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
209 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE MIDWEST AND BRING OVERALL
PLEASANT WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH
JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OF THUNDERSTORM WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW
NORMAL ON FRIDAY...BUT HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THE
INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 925 AM EDT FRIDAY...

EARLY MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW SOME LOW CLOUDS
HANGING BACK OVER THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE MIXING
OUT THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS FROM APPROACHING WEAK FRONT TO THE NORTH
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE GREENBRIER VALLEY/ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS LATE
IN THE DAY. ONE CAVEAT IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME OROGRAPHIC
CIRRUS BUT DO NOT SEE ANY SIGNS OF THIS YET SO WILL NOT INCLUDE
ANY AT THIS TIME. 12Z RNK SOUNDING SUPPORTS CURRENT FORECAST MAX
TEMPS GENERALLY 70 TO 75 EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH 65 TO 70
WEST.

PREVIOUS AFD...

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY OUT
TO SEA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A SHARP H5 TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS BRINGING A BRIEF SHOT OF DRIER AND COOLER AIR
DOWN ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH UPSLOPE CLOUDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD TODAY
WITH CLOUDS DISSIPATING EVEN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY BUT LITTLE
SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE BEHIND IT. MAIN EFFECT MAY BE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS FOR THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AND ALLEGHANY
HIGHLANDS. OVERNIGHT LOOKS DRY AND AND MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...LOW 40 FAR NW TO NEAR 50 SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT FRIDAY...

THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE UNITED STATES.
CONCURRENTLY...AN UPPER LOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...WHILE ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL FEATURES ALLOW FOR
PLENTY OF WET AND STORMY WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY.

FOR OUR AREA DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ANTICIPATE A TREND TOWARDS
PROGRESSIVE WARMER TEMPERATURES THANKS TO THE BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE...AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE CENTER OF THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY
MEMORIAL DAY...THE 80S WILL BE COMMON PLACE WITH THE UPPER END OF
THIS RANGE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE PRECIPITATION FREE EACH OF THESE DAYS AND
NIGHTS. HOWEVER...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA ON MEMORIAL DAY AND NIGHT. THESE WILL BE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE CENTRAL CONUS SYSTEM
GRADUALLY GETTING CLOSER TO THIS REGION...AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT SKIRTING THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING IN THIS SAME REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...

WARMING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AMPLIFIES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...THE ACTUAL SURFACE
HIGH BECOMING ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST.

THIS WILL PLACE OUR FORECAST AREA IN A WARM/HUMID PATTERN WITH
MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEEP CONVECTION.  FORCING WILL BE MAINLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...SO LOOK FOR BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS TO BE ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AND LITTLE OR NO THREAT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT/TROF OVER THE MIDWEST MAY MOVE CLOSE ENOUGH TO US
BY MID WEEK TO HELP PROVIDE A BETTER FOCUS FOR DEEP CONVECTION...BUT
THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN LOW AS AVAILABLE
DYNAMICS ARE LACKING. TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEK LOOK TO BE QUITE
SUMMERLIKE WITH MUGGY HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 EAST...AND BALMY LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT FRIDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE NORM TODAY INTO MONDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT TO THE NORTH WILL BRING SOME BORDERLINE MVFR CLOUDS THROUGH
THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY AT KBLF AND KLWB...HOWEVER
MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN VFR. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME FOG AT
KBLF/KLWB TOWARD DAYBREAK IF BREAKS IN CLOUD DECK ALLOW FOR
ENOUGH RAD COOLING. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AS
CLOUDS START TO DEVELOP WITH EARLY HEATING...BUT THESE SHOULD
QUICKLY LIFT TO VFR. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS MAY BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOUNTAIN AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPCLY BY LATER TUESDAY...WHEN
PERIODS OF MVFR COULD OCCUR MAINLY BLUE RIDGE WEST. OTRW VFR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY OUTSIDE OF ANY LATE DAY CONVECTION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS/PC
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JR/MBS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221757
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
157 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE COAST SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...LO PRES WAS CNTRD WELL OFF THE DE CST...WHILE
HI PRES WAS CNTRD OVER THE MID-MS VALLEY. THAT LO WILL TRACK NE
AWAY INTO THE NRN ATLC TODAY...WHILE HI PRES REMAINS WNW OF THE
AREA FOR MUCH OF TODAY. EXPECT LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPS IN THE LWR TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW A SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THIS
EVENG INTO TNGT. EXPECT JUST SOME CLOUDS WITH THIS FRONT...ESPLY
ACRS THE NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE. LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 40S
OVR THE NW/NRN COUNTIES...TO THE MID TO UPR 50S SE. COOL HI PRES
SETTLES OVER THE MID-ATLC REGION ON SAT. ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY
EXPECTED WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE...AS NNE WINDS BECOME ONSHORE LATE
IN THE DAY. HIGHS 70-75 INLAND/PIEDMONT...AND IN THE MID TO UPR
60S NEAR THE WATER. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SAT NGT WITH LOWS IN
THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S. THE SFC HI SHIFTS INTO THE ATLC ON
SUN...RESULTING IN A SOUTHERLY FLO OVR THE REGION. EXPECT A LITTLE
MORE HUMIDITY AND WARMER TEMPS RANGING FM THE MID 70S TO LWR 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF REMAINING INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SE GA/FLORIDA SUN
NIGHT...BUILDING BACK NORTH INTO THE MID ATLC STATES MON/TUE.
LATEST GFS DAMPENS THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT BY MIDWEEK...BUT HAS GENLY
TRENDED TO THE STRONGER RIDGE SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF. THIS PATTERN
WILL LEAD TO WARM/SUMMER-LIKE WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. A
WEAK WARM FRONT STILL PROGGED TO LIFT N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
AND NRN MID ATLC REGION LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...BUT BULK OF
PRECIP SHOULD STAY OFF TO OUR N. WILL MAINTAIN A 20% POP ACRS THE
FAR NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS INTO MIDDAY MON...BUT
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
FROM MON-TUE...500 MB HEIGHTS RISE AND BULK OF TSTM ACTIVITY
SHOULD CONTINUE TO STAY OFF TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP A LATE
AFTN/EVENING 20% POP OVER JUST THE FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON
TUE...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA WED/THU (UP TO 30% FAR NW). INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH
TEMPS WARMING BACK TO 85-90 F MON...AND UPPER 80S TO LWR 90S
TUE-THU...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS (GFS HIGHS ONLY IN MID-UPPER
80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS PATTERN). CONDITIONS
WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE N. THIS COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A 5-10KT NW WIND (LOCALLY N AT
ORF/ECG) WILL SHIFT TO S/SW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
WIND WILL BECOME N BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING
~10KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-18KT POSSIBLE AT ORF/ECG EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. GENERALLY A CLEAR SKY IS
EXPECTED WITH SCT MID-CLOUDS POSSIBLE AT RIC AND SBY. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN VICINITY OF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND REMAINING ANCHORED OFF THE COAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT NNW WINDS ~15-20 KT ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
MORNING, WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
MORNING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS STEADILY W/SFC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM QUICKLY EJECTING NE TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGH RES MODELS REFLECTING A FEW MORE GUSTS TO ~25 KT
OVER NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MID-MORNING, SO WILL ALLOW
EXISTING SCA TO EXPIRE ON TIME LATER THIS MORNING...EXPIRING ONLY
LOWER BAY AND SOUND WITH 7AM ISSUANCE. WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT
ON AVERAGE BY AFTN, WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT ALONG THE
COASTAL WATERS LATER TODAY. ANOTHER BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AS COOL ~1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE N.

ANTICIPATE ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW END SCA CONDITIONS WITH
(DRY) SFC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT, AND EXPECT FLAGS WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS TIME FRAME ONCE CURRENT SCA IS DROPPED.
GRADIENT SLACKENS QUICKLY SATURDAY AND EXPECT WINDS TO AGAIN DROP
OFF QUICKLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE
COAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. RESULTANT SFC
FLOW BACKS TO THE S/SE FOR LATER SAT THROUGH MONDAY AVGG AOB 15
KT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...MAM



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221757
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
157 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE COAST SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...LO PRES WAS CNTRD WELL OFF THE DE CST...WHILE
HI PRES WAS CNTRD OVER THE MID-MS VALLEY. THAT LO WILL TRACK NE
AWAY INTO THE NRN ATLC TODAY...WHILE HI PRES REMAINS WNW OF THE
AREA FOR MUCH OF TODAY. EXPECT LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPS IN THE LWR TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW A SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THIS
EVENG INTO TNGT. EXPECT JUST SOME CLOUDS WITH THIS FRONT...ESPLY
ACRS THE NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE. LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 40S
OVR THE NW/NRN COUNTIES...TO THE MID TO UPR 50S SE. COOL HI PRES
SETTLES OVER THE MID-ATLC REGION ON SAT. ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY
EXPECTED WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE...AS NNE WINDS BECOME ONSHORE LATE
IN THE DAY. HIGHS 70-75 INLAND/PIEDMONT...AND IN THE MID TO UPR
60S NEAR THE WATER. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SAT NGT WITH LOWS IN
THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S. THE SFC HI SHIFTS INTO THE ATLC ON
SUN...RESULTING IN A SOUTHERLY FLO OVR THE REGION. EXPECT A LITTLE
MORE HUMIDITY AND WARMER TEMPS RANGING FM THE MID 70S TO LWR 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF REMAINING INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SE GA/FLORIDA SUN
NIGHT...BUILDING BACK NORTH INTO THE MID ATLC STATES MON/TUE.
LATEST GFS DAMPENS THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT BY MIDWEEK...BUT HAS GENLY
TRENDED TO THE STRONGER RIDGE SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF. THIS PATTERN
WILL LEAD TO WARM/SUMMER-LIKE WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. A
WEAK WARM FRONT STILL PROGGED TO LIFT N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
AND NRN MID ATLC REGION LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...BUT BULK OF
PRECIP SHOULD STAY OFF TO OUR N. WILL MAINTAIN A 20% POP ACRS THE
FAR NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS INTO MIDDAY MON...BUT
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
FROM MON-TUE...500 MB HEIGHTS RISE AND BULK OF TSTM ACTIVITY
SHOULD CONTINUE TO STAY OFF TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP A LATE
AFTN/EVENING 20% POP OVER JUST THE FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON
TUE...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA WED/THU (UP TO 30% FAR NW). INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH
TEMPS WARMING BACK TO 85-90 F MON...AND UPPER 80S TO LWR 90S
TUE-THU...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS (GFS HIGHS ONLY IN MID-UPPER
80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS PATTERN). CONDITIONS
WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE N. THIS COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A 5-10KT NW WIND (LOCALLY N AT
ORF/ECG) WILL SHIFT TO S/SW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
WIND WILL BECOME N BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING
~10KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-18KT POSSIBLE AT ORF/ECG EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. GENERALLY A CLEAR SKY IS
EXPECTED WITH SCT MID-CLOUDS POSSIBLE AT RIC AND SBY. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN VICINITY OF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND REMAINING ANCHORED OFF THE COAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT NNW WINDS ~15-20 KT ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
MORNING, WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
MORNING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS STEADILY W/SFC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM QUICKLY EJECTING NE TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGH RES MODELS REFLECTING A FEW MORE GUSTS TO ~25 KT
OVER NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MID-MORNING, SO WILL ALLOW
EXISTING SCA TO EXPIRE ON TIME LATER THIS MORNING...EXPIRING ONLY
LOWER BAY AND SOUND WITH 7AM ISSUANCE. WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT
ON AVERAGE BY AFTN, WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT ALONG THE
COASTAL WATERS LATER TODAY. ANOTHER BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AS COOL ~1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE N.

ANTICIPATE ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW END SCA CONDITIONS WITH
(DRY) SFC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT, AND EXPECT FLAGS WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS TIME FRAME ONCE CURRENT SCA IS DROPPED.
GRADIENT SLACKENS QUICKLY SATURDAY AND EXPECT WINDS TO AGAIN DROP
OFF QUICKLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE
COAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. RESULTANT SFC
FLOW BACKS TO THE S/SE FOR LATER SAT THROUGH MONDAY AVGG AOB 15
KT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...MAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221757
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
157 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE COAST SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...LO PRES WAS CNTRD WELL OFF THE DE CST...WHILE
HI PRES WAS CNTRD OVER THE MID-MS VALLEY. THAT LO WILL TRACK NE
AWAY INTO THE NRN ATLC TODAY...WHILE HI PRES REMAINS WNW OF THE
AREA FOR MUCH OF TODAY. EXPECT LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPS IN THE LWR TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW A SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THIS
EVENG INTO TNGT. EXPECT JUST SOME CLOUDS WITH THIS FRONT...ESPLY
ACRS THE NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE. LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 40S
OVR THE NW/NRN COUNTIES...TO THE MID TO UPR 50S SE. COOL HI PRES
SETTLES OVER THE MID-ATLC REGION ON SAT. ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY
EXPECTED WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE...AS NNE WINDS BECOME ONSHORE LATE
IN THE DAY. HIGHS 70-75 INLAND/PIEDMONT...AND IN THE MID TO UPR
60S NEAR THE WATER. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SAT NGT WITH LOWS IN
THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S. THE SFC HI SHIFTS INTO THE ATLC ON
SUN...RESULTING IN A SOUTHERLY FLO OVR THE REGION. EXPECT A LITTLE
MORE HUMIDITY AND WARMER TEMPS RANGING FM THE MID 70S TO LWR 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF REMAINING INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SE GA/FLORIDA SUN
NIGHT...BUILDING BACK NORTH INTO THE MID ATLC STATES MON/TUE.
LATEST GFS DAMPENS THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT BY MIDWEEK...BUT HAS GENLY
TRENDED TO THE STRONGER RIDGE SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF. THIS PATTERN
WILL LEAD TO WARM/SUMMER-LIKE WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. A
WEAK WARM FRONT STILL PROGGED TO LIFT N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
AND NRN MID ATLC REGION LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...BUT BULK OF
PRECIP SHOULD STAY OFF TO OUR N. WILL MAINTAIN A 20% POP ACRS THE
FAR NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS INTO MIDDAY MON...BUT
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
FROM MON-TUE...500 MB HEIGHTS RISE AND BULK OF TSTM ACTIVITY
SHOULD CONTINUE TO STAY OFF TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP A LATE
AFTN/EVENING 20% POP OVER JUST THE FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON
TUE...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA WED/THU (UP TO 30% FAR NW). INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH
TEMPS WARMING BACK TO 85-90 F MON...AND UPPER 80S TO LWR 90S
TUE-THU...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS (GFS HIGHS ONLY IN MID-UPPER
80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS PATTERN). CONDITIONS
WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE N. THIS COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A 5-10KT NW WIND (LOCALLY N AT
ORF/ECG) WILL SHIFT TO S/SW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
WIND WILL BECOME N BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING
~10KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-18KT POSSIBLE AT ORF/ECG EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. GENERALLY A CLEAR SKY IS
EXPECTED WITH SCT MID-CLOUDS POSSIBLE AT RIC AND SBY. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN VICINITY OF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND REMAINING ANCHORED OFF THE COAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT NNW WINDS ~15-20 KT ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
MORNING, WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
MORNING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS STEADILY W/SFC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM QUICKLY EJECTING NE TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGH RES MODELS REFLECTING A FEW MORE GUSTS TO ~25 KT
OVER NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MID-MORNING, SO WILL ALLOW
EXISTING SCA TO EXPIRE ON TIME LATER THIS MORNING...EXPIRING ONLY
LOWER BAY AND SOUND WITH 7AM ISSUANCE. WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT
ON AVERAGE BY AFTN, WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT ALONG THE
COASTAL WATERS LATER TODAY. ANOTHER BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AS COOL ~1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE N.

ANTICIPATE ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW END SCA CONDITIONS WITH
(DRY) SFC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT, AND EXPECT FLAGS WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS TIME FRAME ONCE CURRENT SCA IS DROPPED.
GRADIENT SLACKENS QUICKLY SATURDAY AND EXPECT WINDS TO AGAIN DROP
OFF QUICKLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE
COAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. RESULTANT SFC
FLOW BACKS TO THE S/SE FOR LATER SAT THROUGH MONDAY AVGG AOB 15
KT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...MAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221757
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
157 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE COAST SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...LO PRES WAS CNTRD WELL OFF THE DE CST...WHILE
HI PRES WAS CNTRD OVER THE MID-MS VALLEY. THAT LO WILL TRACK NE
AWAY INTO THE NRN ATLC TODAY...WHILE HI PRES REMAINS WNW OF THE
AREA FOR MUCH OF TODAY. EXPECT LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPS IN THE LWR TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW A SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THIS
EVENG INTO TNGT. EXPECT JUST SOME CLOUDS WITH THIS FRONT...ESPLY
ACRS THE NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE. LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 40S
OVR THE NW/NRN COUNTIES...TO THE MID TO UPR 50S SE. COOL HI PRES
SETTLES OVER THE MID-ATLC REGION ON SAT. ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY
EXPECTED WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE...AS NNE WINDS BECOME ONSHORE LATE
IN THE DAY. HIGHS 70-75 INLAND/PIEDMONT...AND IN THE MID TO UPR
60S NEAR THE WATER. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SAT NGT WITH LOWS IN
THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S. THE SFC HI SHIFTS INTO THE ATLC ON
SUN...RESULTING IN A SOUTHERLY FLO OVR THE REGION. EXPECT A LITTLE
MORE HUMIDITY AND WARMER TEMPS RANGING FM THE MID 70S TO LWR 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF REMAINING INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SE GA/FLORIDA SUN
NIGHT...BUILDING BACK NORTH INTO THE MID ATLC STATES MON/TUE.
LATEST GFS DAMPENS THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT BY MIDWEEK...BUT HAS GENLY
TRENDED TO THE STRONGER RIDGE SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF. THIS PATTERN
WILL LEAD TO WARM/SUMMER-LIKE WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. A
WEAK WARM FRONT STILL PROGGED TO LIFT N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
AND NRN MID ATLC REGION LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...BUT BULK OF
PRECIP SHOULD STAY OFF TO OUR N. WILL MAINTAIN A 20% POP ACRS THE
FAR NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS INTO MIDDAY MON...BUT
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
FROM MON-TUE...500 MB HEIGHTS RISE AND BULK OF TSTM ACTIVITY
SHOULD CONTINUE TO STAY OFF TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP A LATE
AFTN/EVENING 20% POP OVER JUST THE FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON
TUE...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA WED/THU (UP TO 30% FAR NW). INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH
TEMPS WARMING BACK TO 85-90 F MON...AND UPPER 80S TO LWR 90S
TUE-THU...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS (GFS HIGHS ONLY IN MID-UPPER
80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS PATTERN). CONDITIONS
WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE N. THIS COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A 5-10KT NW WIND (LOCALLY N AT
ORF/ECG) WILL SHIFT TO S/SW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
WIND WILL BECOME N BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING
~10KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-18KT POSSIBLE AT ORF/ECG EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. GENERALLY A CLEAR SKY IS
EXPECTED WITH SCT MID-CLOUDS POSSIBLE AT RIC AND SBY. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN VICINITY OF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND REMAINING ANCHORED OFF THE COAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT NNW WINDS ~15-20 KT ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
MORNING, WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
MORNING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS STEADILY W/SFC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM QUICKLY EJECTING NE TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGH RES MODELS REFLECTING A FEW MORE GUSTS TO ~25 KT
OVER NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MID-MORNING, SO WILL ALLOW
EXISTING SCA TO EXPIRE ON TIME LATER THIS MORNING...EXPIRING ONLY
LOWER BAY AND SOUND WITH 7AM ISSUANCE. WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT
ON AVERAGE BY AFTN, WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT ALONG THE
COASTAL WATERS LATER TODAY. ANOTHER BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AS COOL ~1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE N.

ANTICIPATE ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW END SCA CONDITIONS WITH
(DRY) SFC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT, AND EXPECT FLAGS WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS TIME FRAME ONCE CURRENT SCA IS DROPPED.
GRADIENT SLACKENS QUICKLY SATURDAY AND EXPECT WINDS TO AGAIN DROP
OFF QUICKLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE
COAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. RESULTANT SFC
FLOW BACKS TO THE S/SE FOR LATER SAT THROUGH MONDAY AVGG AOB 15
KT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...MAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221757
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
157 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE COAST SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...LO PRES WAS CNTRD WELL OFF THE DE CST...WHILE
HI PRES WAS CNTRD OVER THE MID-MS VALLEY. THAT LO WILL TRACK NE
AWAY INTO THE NRN ATLC TODAY...WHILE HI PRES REMAINS WNW OF THE
AREA FOR MUCH OF TODAY. EXPECT LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPS IN THE LWR TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW A SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THIS
EVENG INTO TNGT. EXPECT JUST SOME CLOUDS WITH THIS FRONT...ESPLY
ACRS THE NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE. LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 40S
OVR THE NW/NRN COUNTIES...TO THE MID TO UPR 50S SE. COOL HI PRES
SETTLES OVER THE MID-ATLC REGION ON SAT. ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY
EXPECTED WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE...AS NNE WINDS BECOME ONSHORE LATE
IN THE DAY. HIGHS 70-75 INLAND/PIEDMONT...AND IN THE MID TO UPR
60S NEAR THE WATER. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SAT NGT WITH LOWS IN
THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S. THE SFC HI SHIFTS INTO THE ATLC ON
SUN...RESULTING IN A SOUTHERLY FLO OVR THE REGION. EXPECT A LITTLE
MORE HUMIDITY AND WARMER TEMPS RANGING FM THE MID 70S TO LWR 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF REMAINING INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SE GA/FLORIDA SUN
NIGHT...BUILDING BACK NORTH INTO THE MID ATLC STATES MON/TUE.
LATEST GFS DAMPENS THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT BY MIDWEEK...BUT HAS GENLY
TRENDED TO THE STRONGER RIDGE SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF. THIS PATTERN
WILL LEAD TO WARM/SUMMER-LIKE WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. A
WEAK WARM FRONT STILL PROGGED TO LIFT N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
AND NRN MID ATLC REGION LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...BUT BULK OF
PRECIP SHOULD STAY OFF TO OUR N. WILL MAINTAIN A 20% POP ACRS THE
FAR NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS INTO MIDDAY MON...BUT
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
FROM MON-TUE...500 MB HEIGHTS RISE AND BULK OF TSTM ACTIVITY
SHOULD CONTINUE TO STAY OFF TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP A LATE
AFTN/EVENING 20% POP OVER JUST THE FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON
TUE...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA WED/THU (UP TO 30% FAR NW). INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH
TEMPS WARMING BACK TO 85-90 F MON...AND UPPER 80S TO LWR 90S
TUE-THU...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS (GFS HIGHS ONLY IN MID-UPPER
80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS PATTERN). CONDITIONS
WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE N. THIS COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A 5-10KT NW WIND (LOCALLY N AT
ORF/ECG) WILL SHIFT TO S/SW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
WIND WILL BECOME N BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING
~10KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-18KT POSSIBLE AT ORF/ECG EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. GENERALLY A CLEAR SKY IS
EXPECTED WITH SCT MID-CLOUDS POSSIBLE AT RIC AND SBY. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN VICINITY OF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND REMAINING ANCHORED OFF THE COAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT NNW WINDS ~15-20 KT ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
MORNING, WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
MORNING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS STEADILY W/SFC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM QUICKLY EJECTING NE TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGH RES MODELS REFLECTING A FEW MORE GUSTS TO ~25 KT
OVER NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MID-MORNING, SO WILL ALLOW
EXISTING SCA TO EXPIRE ON TIME LATER THIS MORNING...EXPIRING ONLY
LOWER BAY AND SOUND WITH 7AM ISSUANCE. WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT
ON AVERAGE BY AFTN, WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT ALONG THE
COASTAL WATERS LATER TODAY. ANOTHER BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AS COOL ~1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE N.

ANTICIPATE ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW END SCA CONDITIONS WITH
(DRY) SFC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT, AND EXPECT FLAGS WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS TIME FRAME ONCE CURRENT SCA IS DROPPED.
GRADIENT SLACKENS QUICKLY SATURDAY AND EXPECT WINDS TO AGAIN DROP
OFF QUICKLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE
COAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. RESULTANT SFC
FLOW BACKS TO THE S/SE FOR LATER SAT THROUGH MONDAY AVGG AOB 15
KT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...MAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221757
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
157 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE COAST SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...LO PRES WAS CNTRD WELL OFF THE DE CST...WHILE
HI PRES WAS CNTRD OVER THE MID-MS VALLEY. THAT LO WILL TRACK NE
AWAY INTO THE NRN ATLC TODAY...WHILE HI PRES REMAINS WNW OF THE
AREA FOR MUCH OF TODAY. EXPECT LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPS IN THE LWR TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW A SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THIS
EVENG INTO TNGT. EXPECT JUST SOME CLOUDS WITH THIS FRONT...ESPLY
ACRS THE NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE. LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 40S
OVR THE NW/NRN COUNTIES...TO THE MID TO UPR 50S SE. COOL HI PRES
SETTLES OVER THE MID-ATLC REGION ON SAT. ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY
EXPECTED WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE...AS NNE WINDS BECOME ONSHORE LATE
IN THE DAY. HIGHS 70-75 INLAND/PIEDMONT...AND IN THE MID TO UPR
60S NEAR THE WATER. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SAT NGT WITH LOWS IN
THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S. THE SFC HI SHIFTS INTO THE ATLC ON
SUN...RESULTING IN A SOUTHERLY FLO OVR THE REGION. EXPECT A LITTLE
MORE HUMIDITY AND WARMER TEMPS RANGING FM THE MID 70S TO LWR 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF REMAINING INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SE GA/FLORIDA SUN
NIGHT...BUILDING BACK NORTH INTO THE MID ATLC STATES MON/TUE.
LATEST GFS DAMPENS THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT BY MIDWEEK...BUT HAS GENLY
TRENDED TO THE STRONGER RIDGE SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF. THIS PATTERN
WILL LEAD TO WARM/SUMMER-LIKE WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. A
WEAK WARM FRONT STILL PROGGED TO LIFT N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
AND NRN MID ATLC REGION LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...BUT BULK OF
PRECIP SHOULD STAY OFF TO OUR N. WILL MAINTAIN A 20% POP ACRS THE
FAR NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS INTO MIDDAY MON...BUT
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
FROM MON-TUE...500 MB HEIGHTS RISE AND BULK OF TSTM ACTIVITY
SHOULD CONTINUE TO STAY OFF TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP A LATE
AFTN/EVENING 20% POP OVER JUST THE FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON
TUE...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA WED/THU (UP TO 30% FAR NW). INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH
TEMPS WARMING BACK TO 85-90 F MON...AND UPPER 80S TO LWR 90S
TUE-THU...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS (GFS HIGHS ONLY IN MID-UPPER
80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS PATTERN). CONDITIONS
WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE N. THIS COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A 5-10KT NW WIND (LOCALLY N AT
ORF/ECG) WILL SHIFT TO S/SW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
WIND WILL BECOME N BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING
~10KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-18KT POSSIBLE AT ORF/ECG EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. GENERALLY A CLEAR SKY IS
EXPECTED WITH SCT MID-CLOUDS POSSIBLE AT RIC AND SBY. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN VICINITY OF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND REMAINING ANCHORED OFF THE COAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT NNW WINDS ~15-20 KT ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
MORNING, WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
MORNING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS STEADILY W/SFC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM QUICKLY EJECTING NE TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGH RES MODELS REFLECTING A FEW MORE GUSTS TO ~25 KT
OVER NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MID-MORNING, SO WILL ALLOW
EXISTING SCA TO EXPIRE ON TIME LATER THIS MORNING...EXPIRING ONLY
LOWER BAY AND SOUND WITH 7AM ISSUANCE. WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT
ON AVERAGE BY AFTN, WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT ALONG THE
COASTAL WATERS LATER TODAY. ANOTHER BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AS COOL ~1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE N.

ANTICIPATE ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW END SCA CONDITIONS WITH
(DRY) SFC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT, AND EXPECT FLAGS WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS TIME FRAME ONCE CURRENT SCA IS DROPPED.
GRADIENT SLACKENS QUICKLY SATURDAY AND EXPECT WINDS TO AGAIN DROP
OFF QUICKLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE
COAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. RESULTANT SFC
FLOW BACKS TO THE S/SE FOR LATER SAT THROUGH MONDAY AVGG AOB 15
KT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...MAM




000
FXUS61 KLWX 221437
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1037 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TODAY BEFORE PASSING THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING
OFF THE COAST SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
NOTICEABLY HOTTER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK
AS A SUMMER-LIKE AIR MASS ENTERS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
ALLEGANY GRANT MINERAL AND PENDLETON TONIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
UNDER CLEAR SKIES LATE TONIGHT AND SENSITIVE PLANTS MAY BE DAMAGED
OR DESTROYED AS TEMPS REACH THE LOW TO MID 30S.

CLEAR MORNING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER
50S LOW 60S...ALREADY SURPASSING THE HIGH TEMPS FROM THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THERE
ARE A FEW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT HAVE BEEN WEAKENING AS
THE AIRMASS MOVES SOUTHWARD. IS0-SCT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE NRN POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THIS AFTERNOON AS SHOWN ON THE HRRR.
ISO SHOWERS MAY EVEN REACH BALTIMORE BEFORE DIMINISHING AS THEY
MOVE SOUTH TOWARDS NOVA AND DC.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25
KT UNDER A SOMEWHAT TIGHT PRES GRADIENT. UNUSUALLY CHILLY AND
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD QUICKLY SOUTHWARD AND BE CENTERED
OVER SRN PA BY 12Z SAT. VERY COOL AND DRY AIR MASS ALONG WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS WILL LEAD TO A RAPID DROPOFF IN TEMPS OVERNIGHT
WITH PATCHY FROST LIKELY OVER FAR WRN AREAS. FOR NOW INCLUDED
PATCHY FROST IN GRIDS BUT WILL LET DAYSHIFT MONITOR DEWPOINTS AND
LET THEM DECIDE WHETHER A FROST ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED OR NOT.
LATEST MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT TEMPS WILL FALL LOW ENOUGH FOR
FROST TO FORM IN THAT AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
SATURDAY...RESULTING IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ALONG WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. AFTER A CHILLY START...THE SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S FOR MOST AREAS.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARD MID-ATLANTIC COAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE
A FEW DEGREES WARMER COMPARED FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT IT WILL STILL
TURN OUT CHILLY DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S IN SHELTERED VALLEYS TO THE MID AND
UPPER 50S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. UPPER-
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND NORTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING INTO OUR
AREA.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. THE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE NEXT 30 HRS. SCT AFTERNOON
CLOUDS EXPECTED OVER MRB WITH CIGS 040-050. WINDS GUSTING 20-25 KT
AT ALL TAF SITES XCPT LIGHTER WINDS AT KCHO.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED...BUT VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS INCREASE INSTABILITY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOLID SCA CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 20-25KT
ESPECIALLY NORTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING
OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN
DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING FOR THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT IT
WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO THE RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNUSUALLY COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE OBSERVED THURSDAY...MAY
21ST. WASHINGTON DULLES BROKE A DAILY RECORD FOR LOW MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE. THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE WAS 58 DEGREES AND THIS
BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 59 DEGREES SET BACK IN 2002.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MDZ501.
VA...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     WVZ501-503-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ531>534-
     537-539>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     535-536-538.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...HAS/LFR
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/LFR
MARINE...BJL/LFR
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KLWX 221437
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1037 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TODAY BEFORE PASSING THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING
OFF THE COAST SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
NOTICEABLY HOTTER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK
AS A SUMMER-LIKE AIR MASS ENTERS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
ALLEGANY GRANT MINERAL AND PENDLETON TONIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
UNDER CLEAR SKIES LATE TONIGHT AND SENSITIVE PLANTS MAY BE DAMAGED
OR DESTROYED AS TEMPS REACH THE LOW TO MID 30S.

CLEAR MORNING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER
50S LOW 60S...ALREADY SURPASSING THE HIGH TEMPS FROM THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THERE
ARE A FEW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT HAVE BEEN WEAKENING AS
THE AIRMASS MOVES SOUTHWARD. IS0-SCT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE NRN POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THIS AFTERNOON AS SHOWN ON THE HRRR.
ISO SHOWERS MAY EVEN REACH BALTIMORE BEFORE DIMINISHING AS THEY
MOVE SOUTH TOWARDS NOVA AND DC.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25
KT UNDER A SOMEWHAT TIGHT PRES GRADIENT. UNUSUALLY CHILLY AND
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD QUICKLY SOUTHWARD AND BE CENTERED
OVER SRN PA BY 12Z SAT. VERY COOL AND DRY AIR MASS ALONG WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS WILL LEAD TO A RAPID DROPOFF IN TEMPS OVERNIGHT
WITH PATCHY FROST LIKELY OVER FAR WRN AREAS. FOR NOW INCLUDED
PATCHY FROST IN GRIDS BUT WILL LET DAYSHIFT MONITOR DEWPOINTS AND
LET THEM DECIDE WHETHER A FROST ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED OR NOT.
LATEST MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT TEMPS WILL FALL LOW ENOUGH FOR
FROST TO FORM IN THAT AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
SATURDAY...RESULTING IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ALONG WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. AFTER A CHILLY START...THE SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S FOR MOST AREAS.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARD MID-ATLANTIC COAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE
A FEW DEGREES WARMER COMPARED FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT IT WILL STILL
TURN OUT CHILLY DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S IN SHELTERED VALLEYS TO THE MID AND
UPPER 50S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. UPPER-
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND NORTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING INTO OUR
AREA.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. THE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE NEXT 30 HRS. SCT AFTERNOON
CLOUDS EXPECTED OVER MRB WITH CIGS 040-050. WINDS GUSTING 20-25 KT
AT ALL TAF SITES XCPT LIGHTER WINDS AT KCHO.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED...BUT VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS INCREASE INSTABILITY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOLID SCA CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 20-25KT
ESPECIALLY NORTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING
OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN
DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING FOR THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT IT
WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO THE RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNUSUALLY COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE OBSERVED THURSDAY...MAY
21ST. WASHINGTON DULLES BROKE A DAILY RECORD FOR LOW MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE. THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE WAS 58 DEGREES AND THIS
BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 59 DEGREES SET BACK IN 2002.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MDZ501.
VA...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     WVZ501-503-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ531>534-
     537-539>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     535-536-538.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...HAS/LFR
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/LFR
MARINE...BJL/LFR
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KLWX 221437
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1037 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TODAY BEFORE PASSING THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING
OFF THE COAST SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
NOTICEABLY HOTTER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK
AS A SUMMER-LIKE AIR MASS ENTERS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
ALLEGANY GRANT MINERAL AND PENDLETON TONIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
UNDER CLEAR SKIES LATE TONIGHT AND SENSITIVE PLANTS MAY BE DAMAGED
OR DESTROYED AS TEMPS REACH THE LOW TO MID 30S.

CLEAR MORNING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER
50S LOW 60S...ALREADY SURPASSING THE HIGH TEMPS FROM THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THERE
ARE A FEW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT HAVE BEEN WEAKENING AS
THE AIRMASS MOVES SOUTHWARD. IS0-SCT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE NRN POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THIS AFTERNOON AS SHOWN ON THE HRRR.
ISO SHOWERS MAY EVEN REACH BALTIMORE BEFORE DIMINISHING AS THEY
MOVE SOUTH TOWARDS NOVA AND DC.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25
KT UNDER A SOMEWHAT TIGHT PRES GRADIENT. UNUSUALLY CHILLY AND
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD QUICKLY SOUTHWARD AND BE CENTERED
OVER SRN PA BY 12Z SAT. VERY COOL AND DRY AIR MASS ALONG WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS WILL LEAD TO A RAPID DROPOFF IN TEMPS OVERNIGHT
WITH PATCHY FROST LIKELY OVER FAR WRN AREAS. FOR NOW INCLUDED
PATCHY FROST IN GRIDS BUT WILL LET DAYSHIFT MONITOR DEWPOINTS AND
LET THEM DECIDE WHETHER A FROST ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED OR NOT.
LATEST MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT TEMPS WILL FALL LOW ENOUGH FOR
FROST TO FORM IN THAT AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
SATURDAY...RESULTING IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ALONG WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. AFTER A CHILLY START...THE SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S FOR MOST AREAS.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARD MID-ATLANTIC COAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE
A FEW DEGREES WARMER COMPARED FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT IT WILL STILL
TURN OUT CHILLY DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S IN SHELTERED VALLEYS TO THE MID AND
UPPER 50S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. UPPER-
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND NORTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING INTO OUR
AREA.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. THE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE NEXT 30 HRS. SCT AFTERNOON
CLOUDS EXPECTED OVER MRB WITH CIGS 040-050. WINDS GUSTING 20-25 KT
AT ALL TAF SITES XCPT LIGHTER WINDS AT KCHO.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED...BUT VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS INCREASE INSTABILITY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOLID SCA CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 20-25KT
ESPECIALLY NORTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING
OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN
DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING FOR THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT IT
WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO THE RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNUSUALLY COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE OBSERVED THURSDAY...MAY
21ST. WASHINGTON DULLES BROKE A DAILY RECORD FOR LOW MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE. THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE WAS 58 DEGREES AND THIS
BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 59 DEGREES SET BACK IN 2002.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MDZ501.
VA...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     WVZ501-503-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ531>534-
     537-539>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     535-536-538.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...HAS/LFR
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/LFR
MARINE...BJL/LFR
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KLWX 221437
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1037 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TODAY BEFORE PASSING THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING
OFF THE COAST SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
NOTICEABLY HOTTER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK
AS A SUMMER-LIKE AIR MASS ENTERS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
ALLEGANY GRANT MINERAL AND PENDLETON TONIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
UNDER CLEAR SKIES LATE TONIGHT AND SENSITIVE PLANTS MAY BE DAMAGED
OR DESTROYED AS TEMPS REACH THE LOW TO MID 30S.

CLEAR MORNING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER
50S LOW 60S...ALREADY SURPASSING THE HIGH TEMPS FROM THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THERE
ARE A FEW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT HAVE BEEN WEAKENING AS
THE AIRMASS MOVES SOUTHWARD. IS0-SCT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE NRN POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THIS AFTERNOON AS SHOWN ON THE HRRR.
ISO SHOWERS MAY EVEN REACH BALTIMORE BEFORE DIMINISHING AS THEY
MOVE SOUTH TOWARDS NOVA AND DC.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25
KT UNDER A SOMEWHAT TIGHT PRES GRADIENT. UNUSUALLY CHILLY AND
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD QUICKLY SOUTHWARD AND BE CENTERED
OVER SRN PA BY 12Z SAT. VERY COOL AND DRY AIR MASS ALONG WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS WILL LEAD TO A RAPID DROPOFF IN TEMPS OVERNIGHT
WITH PATCHY FROST LIKELY OVER FAR WRN AREAS. FOR NOW INCLUDED
PATCHY FROST IN GRIDS BUT WILL LET DAYSHIFT MONITOR DEWPOINTS AND
LET THEM DECIDE WHETHER A FROST ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED OR NOT.
LATEST MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT TEMPS WILL FALL LOW ENOUGH FOR
FROST TO FORM IN THAT AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
SATURDAY...RESULTING IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ALONG WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. AFTER A CHILLY START...THE SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S FOR MOST AREAS.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARD MID-ATLANTIC COAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE
A FEW DEGREES WARMER COMPARED FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT IT WILL STILL
TURN OUT CHILLY DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S IN SHELTERED VALLEYS TO THE MID AND
UPPER 50S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. UPPER-
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND NORTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING INTO OUR
AREA.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. THE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE NEXT 30 HRS. SCT AFTERNOON
CLOUDS EXPECTED OVER MRB WITH CIGS 040-050. WINDS GUSTING 20-25 KT
AT ALL TAF SITES XCPT LIGHTER WINDS AT KCHO.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED...BUT VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS INCREASE INSTABILITY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOLID SCA CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 20-25KT
ESPECIALLY NORTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING
OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN
DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING FOR THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT IT
WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO THE RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNUSUALLY COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE OBSERVED THURSDAY...MAY
21ST. WASHINGTON DULLES BROKE A DAILY RECORD FOR LOW MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE. THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE WAS 58 DEGREES AND THIS
BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 59 DEGREES SET BACK IN 2002.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MDZ501.
VA...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     WVZ501-503-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ531>534-
     537-539>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     535-536-538.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...HAS/LFR
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/LFR
MARINE...BJL/LFR
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KLWX 221349
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
949 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TODAY BEFORE PASSING THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING
OFF THE COAST SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
NOTICEABLY HOTTER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK
AS A SUMMER-LIKE AIR MASS ENTERS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CLEAR MORNING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER
50S LOW 60S...ALREADY SURPASSING THE HIGH TEMPS FROM THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THERE
ARE A FEW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT HAVE BEEN WEAKENING AS
THE AIRMASS MOVES SOUTHWARD. IS0-SCT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE NRN POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THIS AFTERNOON AS SHOWN ON THE HRRR.
ISO SHOWERS MAY EVEN REACH BALTIMORE BEFORE DIMINISHING AS THEY
MOVE SOUTH TOWARDS NOVA AND DC.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25
KT UNDER A SOMEWHAT TIGHT PRES GRADIENT. UNUSUALLY CHILLY AND
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD QUICKLY SOUTHWARD AND BE CENTERED
OVER SRN PA BY 12Z SAT. VERY COOL AND DRY AIR MASS ALONG WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS WILL LEAD TO A RAPID DROPOFF IN TEMPS OVERNIGHT
WITH PATCHY FROST LIKELY OVER FAR WRN AREAS. FOR NOW INCLUDED
PATCHY FROST IN GRIDS BUT WILL LET DAYSHIFT MONITOR DEWPOINTS AND
LET THEM DECIDE WHETHER A FROST ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED OR NOT.
LATEST MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT TEMPS WILL FALL LOW ENOUGH FOR
FROST TO FORM IN THAT AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
SATURDAY...RESULTING IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ALONG WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. AFTER A CHILLY START...THE SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S FOR MOST AREAS.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARD MID-ATLANTIC COAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE
A FEW DEGREES WARMER COMPARED FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT IT WILL STILL
TURN OUT CHILLY DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S IN SHELTERED VALLEYS TO THE MID AND
UPPER 50S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. UPPER-
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND NORTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING INTO OUR
AREA.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. THE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE NEXT 30 HRS. SCT AFTERNOON
CLOUDS EXPECTED OVER MRB WITH CIGS 040-050. WINDS GUSTING 20-25 KT
AT ALL TAF SITES XCPT LIGHTER WINDS AT KCHO.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED...BUT VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS INCREASE INSTABILITY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOLID SCA CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 20-25KT
ESPECIALLY NORTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING
OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN
DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING FOR THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT IT
WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO THE RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNUSUALLY COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE OBSERVED THURSDAY...MAY
21ST. WASHINGTON DULLES BROKE A DAILY RECORD FOR LOW MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE. THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE WAS 58 DEGREES AND THIS
BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 59 DEGREES SET BACK IN 2002.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     535-536-538.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ531>534-
     537-540>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...HAS/LFR
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/LFR
MARINE...BJL/LFR
CLIMATE...LWX




000
FXUS61 KLWX 221349
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
949 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TODAY BEFORE PASSING THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING
OFF THE COAST SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
NOTICEABLY HOTTER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK
AS A SUMMER-LIKE AIR MASS ENTERS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CLEAR MORNING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER
50S LOW 60S...ALREADY SURPASSING THE HIGH TEMPS FROM THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THERE
ARE A FEW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT HAVE BEEN WEAKENING AS
THE AIRMASS MOVES SOUTHWARD. IS0-SCT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE NRN POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THIS AFTERNOON AS SHOWN ON THE HRRR.
ISO SHOWERS MAY EVEN REACH BALTIMORE BEFORE DIMINISHING AS THEY
MOVE SOUTH TOWARDS NOVA AND DC.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25
KT UNDER A SOMEWHAT TIGHT PRES GRADIENT. UNUSUALLY CHILLY AND
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD QUICKLY SOUTHWARD AND BE CENTERED
OVER SRN PA BY 12Z SAT. VERY COOL AND DRY AIR MASS ALONG WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS WILL LEAD TO A RAPID DROPOFF IN TEMPS OVERNIGHT
WITH PATCHY FROST LIKELY OVER FAR WRN AREAS. FOR NOW INCLUDED
PATCHY FROST IN GRIDS BUT WILL LET DAYSHIFT MONITOR DEWPOINTS AND
LET THEM DECIDE WHETHER A FROST ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED OR NOT.
LATEST MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT TEMPS WILL FALL LOW ENOUGH FOR
FROST TO FORM IN THAT AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
SATURDAY...RESULTING IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ALONG WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. AFTER A CHILLY START...THE SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S FOR MOST AREAS.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARD MID-ATLANTIC COAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE
A FEW DEGREES WARMER COMPARED FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT IT WILL STILL
TURN OUT CHILLY DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S IN SHELTERED VALLEYS TO THE MID AND
UPPER 50S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. UPPER-
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND NORTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING INTO OUR
AREA.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. THE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE NEXT 30 HRS. SCT AFTERNOON
CLOUDS EXPECTED OVER MRB WITH CIGS 040-050. WINDS GUSTING 20-25 KT
AT ALL TAF SITES XCPT LIGHTER WINDS AT KCHO.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED...BUT VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS INCREASE INSTABILITY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOLID SCA CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 20-25KT
ESPECIALLY NORTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING
OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN
DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING FOR THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT IT
WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO THE RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNUSUALLY COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE OBSERVED THURSDAY...MAY
21ST. WASHINGTON DULLES BROKE A DAILY RECORD FOR LOW MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE. THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE WAS 58 DEGREES AND THIS
BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 59 DEGREES SET BACK IN 2002.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     535-536-538.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ531>534-
     537-540>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...HAS/LFR
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/LFR
MARINE...BJL/LFR
CLIMATE...LWX




000
FXUS61 KLWX 221349
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
949 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TODAY BEFORE PASSING THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING
OFF THE COAST SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
NOTICEABLY HOTTER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK
AS A SUMMER-LIKE AIR MASS ENTERS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CLEAR MORNING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER
50S LOW 60S...ALREADY SURPASSING THE HIGH TEMPS FROM THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THERE
ARE A FEW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT HAVE BEEN WEAKENING AS
THE AIRMASS MOVES SOUTHWARD. IS0-SCT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE NRN POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THIS AFTERNOON AS SHOWN ON THE HRRR.
ISO SHOWERS MAY EVEN REACH BALTIMORE BEFORE DIMINISHING AS THEY
MOVE SOUTH TOWARDS NOVA AND DC.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25
KT UNDER A SOMEWHAT TIGHT PRES GRADIENT. UNUSUALLY CHILLY AND
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD QUICKLY SOUTHWARD AND BE CENTERED
OVER SRN PA BY 12Z SAT. VERY COOL AND DRY AIR MASS ALONG WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS WILL LEAD TO A RAPID DROPOFF IN TEMPS OVERNIGHT
WITH PATCHY FROST LIKELY OVER FAR WRN AREAS. FOR NOW INCLUDED
PATCHY FROST IN GRIDS BUT WILL LET DAYSHIFT MONITOR DEWPOINTS AND
LET THEM DECIDE WHETHER A FROST ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED OR NOT.
LATEST MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT TEMPS WILL FALL LOW ENOUGH FOR
FROST TO FORM IN THAT AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
SATURDAY...RESULTING IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ALONG WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. AFTER A CHILLY START...THE SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S FOR MOST AREAS.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARD MID-ATLANTIC COAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE
A FEW DEGREES WARMER COMPARED FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT IT WILL STILL
TURN OUT CHILLY DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S IN SHELTERED VALLEYS TO THE MID AND
UPPER 50S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. UPPER-
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND NORTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING INTO OUR
AREA.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. THE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE NEXT 30 HRS. SCT AFTERNOON
CLOUDS EXPECTED OVER MRB WITH CIGS 040-050. WINDS GUSTING 20-25 KT
AT ALL TAF SITES XCPT LIGHTER WINDS AT KCHO.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED...BUT VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS INCREASE INSTABILITY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOLID SCA CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 20-25KT
ESPECIALLY NORTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING
OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN
DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING FOR THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT IT
WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO THE RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNUSUALLY COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE OBSERVED THURSDAY...MAY
21ST. WASHINGTON DULLES BROKE A DAILY RECORD FOR LOW MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE. THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE WAS 58 DEGREES AND THIS
BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 59 DEGREES SET BACK IN 2002.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     535-536-538.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ531>534-
     537-540>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...HAS/LFR
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/LFR
MARINE...BJL/LFR
CLIMATE...LWX




000
FXUS61 KLWX 221349
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
949 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TODAY BEFORE PASSING THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING
OFF THE COAST SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
NOTICEABLY HOTTER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK
AS A SUMMER-LIKE AIR MASS ENTERS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CLEAR MORNING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER
50S LOW 60S...ALREADY SURPASSING THE HIGH TEMPS FROM THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THERE
ARE A FEW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT HAVE BEEN WEAKENING AS
THE AIRMASS MOVES SOUTHWARD. IS0-SCT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE NRN POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THIS AFTERNOON AS SHOWN ON THE HRRR.
ISO SHOWERS MAY EVEN REACH BALTIMORE BEFORE DIMINISHING AS THEY
MOVE SOUTH TOWARDS NOVA AND DC.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25
KT UNDER A SOMEWHAT TIGHT PRES GRADIENT. UNUSUALLY CHILLY AND
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD QUICKLY SOUTHWARD AND BE CENTERED
OVER SRN PA BY 12Z SAT. VERY COOL AND DRY AIR MASS ALONG WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS WILL LEAD TO A RAPID DROPOFF IN TEMPS OVERNIGHT
WITH PATCHY FROST LIKELY OVER FAR WRN AREAS. FOR NOW INCLUDED
PATCHY FROST IN GRIDS BUT WILL LET DAYSHIFT MONITOR DEWPOINTS AND
LET THEM DECIDE WHETHER A FROST ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED OR NOT.
LATEST MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT TEMPS WILL FALL LOW ENOUGH FOR
FROST TO FORM IN THAT AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
SATURDAY...RESULTING IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ALONG WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. AFTER A CHILLY START...THE SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S FOR MOST AREAS.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARD MID-ATLANTIC COAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE
A FEW DEGREES WARMER COMPARED FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT IT WILL STILL
TURN OUT CHILLY DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S IN SHELTERED VALLEYS TO THE MID AND
UPPER 50S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. UPPER-
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND NORTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING INTO OUR
AREA.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. THE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE NEXT 30 HRS. SCT AFTERNOON
CLOUDS EXPECTED OVER MRB WITH CIGS 040-050. WINDS GUSTING 20-25 KT
AT ALL TAF SITES XCPT LIGHTER WINDS AT KCHO.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED...BUT VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS INCREASE INSTABILITY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOLID SCA CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 20-25KT
ESPECIALLY NORTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING
OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN
DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING FOR THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT IT
WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO THE RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNUSUALLY COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE OBSERVED THURSDAY...MAY
21ST. WASHINGTON DULLES BROKE A DAILY RECORD FOR LOW MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE. THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE WAS 58 DEGREES AND THIS
BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 59 DEGREES SET BACK IN 2002.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     535-536-538.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ531>534-
     537-540>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...HAS/LFR
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/LFR
MARINE...BJL/LFR
CLIMATE...LWX




000
FXUS61 KRNK 221336
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
936 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE MIDWEST AND BRING OVERALL
PLEASANT WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH
JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OF THUNDERSTORM WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW
NORMAL ON FRIDAY...BUT HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THE
INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 925 AM EDT FRIDAY...

EARLY MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW SOME LOW CLOUDS
HANGING BACK OVER THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE MIXING
OUT THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS FROM APPROACHING WEAK FRONT TO THE NORTH
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE GREENBRIER VALLEY/ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS LATE
IN THE DAY. ONE CAVEAT IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME OROGRAPHIC
CIRRUS BUT DO NOT SEE ANY SIGNS OF THIS YET SO WILL NOT INCLUDE
ANY AT THIS TIME. 12Z RNK SOUNDING SUPPORTS CURRENT FORECAST MAX
TEMPS GENERALLY 70 TO 75 EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH 65 TO 70
WEST.

PREVIOUS AFD...

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY OUT
TO SEA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A SHARP H5 TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS BRINGING A BRIEF SHOT OF DRIER AND COOLER AIR
DOWN ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH UPSLOPE CLOUDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD TODAY
WITH CLOUDS DISSIPATING EVEN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY BUT LITTLE
SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE BEHIND IT. MAIN EFFECT MAY BE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS FOR THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AND ALLEGHANY
HIGHLANDS. OVERNIGHT LOOKS DRY AND AND MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...LOW 40 FAR NW TO NEAR 50 SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT FRIDAY...

THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE UNITED STATES.
CONCURRENTLY...AN UPPER LOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...WHILE ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL FEATURES ALLOW FOR
PLENTY OF WET AND STORMY WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY.

FOR OUR AREA DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ANTICIPATE A TREND TOWARDS
PROGRESSIVE WARMER TEMPERATURES THANKS TO THE BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE...AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE CENTER OF THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY
MEMORIAL DAY...THE 80S WILL BE COMMON PLACE WITH THE UPPER END OF
THIS RANGE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE PRECIPITATION FREE EACH OF THESE DAYS AND
NIGHTS. HOWEVER...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA ON MEMORIAL DAY AND NIGHT. THESE WILL BE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE CENTRAL CONUS SYSTEM
GRADUALLY GETTING CLOSER TO THIS REGION...AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT SKIRTING THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING IN THIS SAME REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...

WARMING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AMPLIFIES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...THE ACTUAL SURFACE
HIGH BECOMING ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST.

THIS WILL PLACE OUR FORECAST AREA IN A WARM/HUMID PATTERN WITH
MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEEP CONVECTION.  FORCING WILL BE MAINLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...SO LOOK FOR BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS TO BE ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AND LITTLE OR NO THREAT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT/TROF OVER THE MIDWEST MAY MOVE CLOSE ENOUGH TO US
BY MID WEEK TO HELP PROVIDE A BETTER FOCUS FOR DEEP CONVECTION...BUT
THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN LOW AS AVAILABLE
DYNAMICS ARE LACKING. TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEK LOOK TO BE QUITE
SUMMERLIKE WITH MUGGY HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 EAST...AND BALMY LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
ALREADY BEING REPORTED AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT BLF WHERE SOME
STRATUS IS PERSISTING. VFR WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES WITHIN
SEVERAL HOURS. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE BIT GUSTY UNDER NORTHWEST
FLOW AND DOWNSLOPING BUT SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS MAY BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOUNTAIN AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPCLY BY LATER TUESDAY...WHEN
PERIODS OF MVFR COULD OCCUR MAINLY BLUE RIDGE WEST. OTRW VFR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY OUTSIDE OF ANY LATE DAY CONVECTION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS/PC
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JH/PC



000
FXUS61 KRNK 221336
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
936 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE MIDWEST AND BRING OVERALL
PLEASANT WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH
JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OF THUNDERSTORM WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW
NORMAL ON FRIDAY...BUT HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THE
INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 925 AM EDT FRIDAY...

EARLY MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW SOME LOW CLOUDS
HANGING BACK OVER THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE MIXING
OUT THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS FROM APPROACHING WEAK FRONT TO THE NORTH
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE GREENBRIER VALLEY/ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS LATE
IN THE DAY. ONE CAVEAT IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME OROGRAPHIC
CIRRUS BUT DO NOT SEE ANY SIGNS OF THIS YET SO WILL NOT INCLUDE
ANY AT THIS TIME. 12Z RNK SOUNDING SUPPORTS CURRENT FORECAST MAX
TEMPS GENERALLY 70 TO 75 EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH 65 TO 70
WEST.

PREVIOUS AFD...

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY OUT
TO SEA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A SHARP H5 TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS BRINGING A BRIEF SHOT OF DRIER AND COOLER AIR
DOWN ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH UPSLOPE CLOUDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD TODAY
WITH CLOUDS DISSIPATING EVEN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY BUT LITTLE
SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE BEHIND IT. MAIN EFFECT MAY BE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS FOR THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AND ALLEGHANY
HIGHLANDS. OVERNIGHT LOOKS DRY AND AND MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...LOW 40 FAR NW TO NEAR 50 SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT FRIDAY...

THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE UNITED STATES.
CONCURRENTLY...AN UPPER LOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...WHILE ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL FEATURES ALLOW FOR
PLENTY OF WET AND STORMY WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY.

FOR OUR AREA DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ANTICIPATE A TREND TOWARDS
PROGRESSIVE WARMER TEMPERATURES THANKS TO THE BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE...AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE CENTER OF THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY
MEMORIAL DAY...THE 80S WILL BE COMMON PLACE WITH THE UPPER END OF
THIS RANGE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE PRECIPITATION FREE EACH OF THESE DAYS AND
NIGHTS. HOWEVER...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA ON MEMORIAL DAY AND NIGHT. THESE WILL BE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE CENTRAL CONUS SYSTEM
GRADUALLY GETTING CLOSER TO THIS REGION...AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT SKIRTING THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING IN THIS SAME REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...

WARMING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AMPLIFIES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...THE ACTUAL SURFACE
HIGH BECOMING ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST.

THIS WILL PLACE OUR FORECAST AREA IN A WARM/HUMID PATTERN WITH
MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEEP CONVECTION.  FORCING WILL BE MAINLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...SO LOOK FOR BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS TO BE ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AND LITTLE OR NO THREAT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT/TROF OVER THE MIDWEST MAY MOVE CLOSE ENOUGH TO US
BY MID WEEK TO HELP PROVIDE A BETTER FOCUS FOR DEEP CONVECTION...BUT
THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN LOW AS AVAILABLE
DYNAMICS ARE LACKING. TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEK LOOK TO BE QUITE
SUMMERLIKE WITH MUGGY HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 EAST...AND BALMY LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
ALREADY BEING REPORTED AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT BLF WHERE SOME
STRATUS IS PERSISTING. VFR WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES WITHIN
SEVERAL HOURS. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE BIT GUSTY UNDER NORTHWEST
FLOW AND DOWNSLOPING BUT SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS MAY BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOUNTAIN AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPCLY BY LATER TUESDAY...WHEN
PERIODS OF MVFR COULD OCCUR MAINLY BLUE RIDGE WEST. OTRW VFR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY OUTSIDE OF ANY LATE DAY CONVECTION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS/PC
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JH/PC




000
FXUS61 KRNK 221140
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
740 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE MIDWEST AND BRING OVERALL
PLEASANT WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH
JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OF THUNDERSTORM WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW
NORMAL ON FRIDAY...BUT HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THE
INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY OUT
TO SEA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A SHARP H5 TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS BRINGING A BRIEF SHOT OF DRIER AND COOLER AIR
DOWN ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH UPSLOPE CLOUDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD TODAY
WITH CLOUDS DISSIPATING EVEN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND SEASONABLY
COOL CONDITIONS FOR THE DAYTIME...MAINLY UPPER 60S NW TO L/M 70S
SE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY
BUT LITTLE SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE BEHIND IT. MAIN EFFECT MAY
BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FOR THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AND ALLEGHANY
HIGHLANDS. OVERNIGHT LOOKS DRY AND AND MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...LOW 40 FAR NW TO NEAR 50 SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT FRIDAY...

THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE UNITED STATES.
CONCURRENTLY...AN UPPER LOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...WHILE ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL FEATURES ALLOW FOR
PLENTY OF WET AND STORMY WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY.

FOR OUR AREA DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ANTICIPATE A TREND TOWARDS
PROGRESSIVE WARMER TEMPERATURES THANKS TO THE BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE...AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE CENTER OF THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY
MEMORIAL DAY...THE 80S WILL BE COMMON PLACE WITH THE UPPER END OF
THIS RANGE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE PRECIPITATION FREE EACH OF THESE DAYS AND
NIGHTS. HOWEVER...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA ON MEMORIAL DAY AND NIGHT. THESE WILL BE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE CENTRAL CONUS SYSTEM
GRADUALLY GETTING CLOSER TO THIS REGION...AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT SKIRTING THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING IN THIS SAME REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...

WARMING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AMPLIFIES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...THE ACTUAL SURFACE
HIGH BECOMING ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST.

THIS WILL PLACE OUR FORECAST AREA IN A WARM/HUMID PATTERN WITH
MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEEP CONVECTION.  FORCING WILL BE MAINLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...SO LOOK FOR BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS TO BE ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AND LITTLE OR NO THREAT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT/TROF OVER THE MIDWEST MAY MOVE CLOSE ENOUGH TO US
BY MID WEEK TO HELP PROVIDE A BETTER FOCUS FOR DEEP CONVECTION...BUT
THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN LOW AS AVAILABLE
DYNAMICS ARE LACKING. TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEK LOOK TO BE QUITE
SUMMERLIKE WITH MUGGY HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 EAST...AND BALMY LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
ALREADY BEING REPORTED AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT BLF WHERE SOME
STRATUS IS PERSISTING. VFR WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES WITHIN
SEVERAL HOURS. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE BIT GUSTY UNDER NORTHWEST
FLOW AND DOWNSLOPING BUT SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS MAY BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOUNTAIN AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPCLY BY LATER TUESDAY...WHEN
PERIODS OF MVFR COULD OCCUR MAINLY BLUE RIDGE WEST. OTRW VFR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY OUTSIDE OF ANY LATE DAY CONVECTION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...JH/PC
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JH/PC



000
FXUS61 KRNK 221140
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
740 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE MIDWEST AND BRING OVERALL
PLEASANT WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH
JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OF THUNDERSTORM WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW
NORMAL ON FRIDAY...BUT HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THE
INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY OUT
TO SEA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A SHARP H5 TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS BRINGING A BRIEF SHOT OF DRIER AND COOLER AIR
DOWN ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH UPSLOPE CLOUDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD TODAY
WITH CLOUDS DISSIPATING EVEN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND SEASONABLY
COOL CONDITIONS FOR THE DAYTIME...MAINLY UPPER 60S NW TO L/M 70S
SE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY
BUT LITTLE SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE BEHIND IT. MAIN EFFECT MAY
BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FOR THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AND ALLEGHANY
HIGHLANDS. OVERNIGHT LOOKS DRY AND AND MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...LOW 40 FAR NW TO NEAR 50 SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT FRIDAY...

THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE UNITED STATES.
CONCURRENTLY...AN UPPER LOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...WHILE ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL FEATURES ALLOW FOR
PLENTY OF WET AND STORMY WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY.

FOR OUR AREA DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ANTICIPATE A TREND TOWARDS
PROGRESSIVE WARMER TEMPERATURES THANKS TO THE BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE...AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE CENTER OF THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY
MEMORIAL DAY...THE 80S WILL BE COMMON PLACE WITH THE UPPER END OF
THIS RANGE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE PRECIPITATION FREE EACH OF THESE DAYS AND
NIGHTS. HOWEVER...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA ON MEMORIAL DAY AND NIGHT. THESE WILL BE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE CENTRAL CONUS SYSTEM
GRADUALLY GETTING CLOSER TO THIS REGION...AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT SKIRTING THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING IN THIS SAME REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...

WARMING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AMPLIFIES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...THE ACTUAL SURFACE
HIGH BECOMING ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST.

THIS WILL PLACE OUR FORECAST AREA IN A WARM/HUMID PATTERN WITH
MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEEP CONVECTION.  FORCING WILL BE MAINLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...SO LOOK FOR BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS TO BE ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AND LITTLE OR NO THREAT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT/TROF OVER THE MIDWEST MAY MOVE CLOSE ENOUGH TO US
BY MID WEEK TO HELP PROVIDE A BETTER FOCUS FOR DEEP CONVECTION...BUT
THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN LOW AS AVAILABLE
DYNAMICS ARE LACKING. TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEK LOOK TO BE QUITE
SUMMERLIKE WITH MUGGY HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 EAST...AND BALMY LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
ALREADY BEING REPORTED AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT BLF WHERE SOME
STRATUS IS PERSISTING. VFR WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES WITHIN
SEVERAL HOURS. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE BIT GUSTY UNDER NORTHWEST
FLOW AND DOWNSLOPING BUT SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS MAY BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOUNTAIN AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPCLY BY LATER TUESDAY...WHEN
PERIODS OF MVFR COULD OCCUR MAINLY BLUE RIDGE WEST. OTRW VFR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY OUTSIDE OF ANY LATE DAY CONVECTION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...JH/PC
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JH/PC




000
FXUS61 KRNK 221140
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
740 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE MIDWEST AND BRING OVERALL
PLEASANT WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH
JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OF THUNDERSTORM WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW
NORMAL ON FRIDAY...BUT HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THE
INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY OUT
TO SEA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A SHARP H5 TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS BRINGING A BRIEF SHOT OF DRIER AND COOLER AIR
DOWN ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH UPSLOPE CLOUDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD TODAY
WITH CLOUDS DISSIPATING EVEN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND SEASONABLY
COOL CONDITIONS FOR THE DAYTIME...MAINLY UPPER 60S NW TO L/M 70S
SE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY
BUT LITTLE SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE BEHIND IT. MAIN EFFECT MAY
BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FOR THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AND ALLEGHANY
HIGHLANDS. OVERNIGHT LOOKS DRY AND AND MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...LOW 40 FAR NW TO NEAR 50 SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT FRIDAY...

THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE UNITED STATES.
CONCURRENTLY...AN UPPER LOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...WHILE ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL FEATURES ALLOW FOR
PLENTY OF WET AND STORMY WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY.

FOR OUR AREA DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ANTICIPATE A TREND TOWARDS
PROGRESSIVE WARMER TEMPERATURES THANKS TO THE BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE...AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE CENTER OF THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY
MEMORIAL DAY...THE 80S WILL BE COMMON PLACE WITH THE UPPER END OF
THIS RANGE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE PRECIPITATION FREE EACH OF THESE DAYS AND
NIGHTS. HOWEVER...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA ON MEMORIAL DAY AND NIGHT. THESE WILL BE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE CENTRAL CONUS SYSTEM
GRADUALLY GETTING CLOSER TO THIS REGION...AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT SKIRTING THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING IN THIS SAME REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...

WARMING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AMPLIFIES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...THE ACTUAL SURFACE
HIGH BECOMING ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST.

THIS WILL PLACE OUR FORECAST AREA IN A WARM/HUMID PATTERN WITH
MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEEP CONVECTION.  FORCING WILL BE MAINLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...SO LOOK FOR BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS TO BE ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AND LITTLE OR NO THREAT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT/TROF OVER THE MIDWEST MAY MOVE CLOSE ENOUGH TO US
BY MID WEEK TO HELP PROVIDE A BETTER FOCUS FOR DEEP CONVECTION...BUT
THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN LOW AS AVAILABLE
DYNAMICS ARE LACKING. TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEK LOOK TO BE QUITE
SUMMERLIKE WITH MUGGY HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 EAST...AND BALMY LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
ALREADY BEING REPORTED AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT BLF WHERE SOME
STRATUS IS PERSISTING. VFR WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES WITHIN
SEVERAL HOURS. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE BIT GUSTY UNDER NORTHWEST
FLOW AND DOWNSLOPING BUT SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS MAY BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOUNTAIN AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPCLY BY LATER TUESDAY...WHEN
PERIODS OF MVFR COULD OCCUR MAINLY BLUE RIDGE WEST. OTRW VFR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY OUTSIDE OF ANY LATE DAY CONVECTION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...JH/PC
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JH/PC




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221104
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
704 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE COAST SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...LO PRES WAS CNTRD WELL OFF THE DE CST...WHILE
HI PRES WAS CNTRD OVER THE MID-MS VALLEY. THAT LO WILL TRACK NE
AWAY INTO THE NRN ATLC TODAY...WHILE HI PRES REMAINS WNW OF THE
AREA FOR MUCH OF TODAY. EXPECT LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPS IN THE LWR TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW A SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THIS
EVENG INTO TNGT. EXPECT JUST SOME CLOUDS WITH THIS FRONT...ESPLY
ACRS THE NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE. LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 40S
OVR THE NW/NRN COUNTIES...TO THE MID TO UPR 50S SE. COOL HI PRES
SETTLES OVER THE MID-ATLC REGION ON SAT. ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY
EXPECTED WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE...AS NNE WINDS BECOME ONSHORE LATE
IN THE DAY. HIGHS 70-75 INLAND/PIEDMONT...AND IN THE MID TO UPR
60S NEAR THE WATER. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SAT NGT WITH LOWS IN
THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S. THE SFC HI SHIFTS INTO THE ATLC ON
SUN...RESULTING IN A SOUTHERLY FLO OVR THE REGION. EXPECT A LITTLE
MORE HUMIDITY AND WARMER TEMPS RANGING FM THE MID 70S TO LWR 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF REMAINING INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SE GA/FLORIDA SUN
NIGHT...BUILDING BACK NORTH INTO THE MID ATLC STATES MON/TUE.
LATEST GFS DAMPENS THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT BY MIDWEEK...BUT HAS GENLY
TRENDED TO THE STRONGER RIDGE SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF. THIS PATTERN
WILL LEAD TO WARM/SUMMER-LIKE WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. A
WEAK WARM FRONT STILL PROGGED TO LIFT N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
AND NRN MID ATLC REGION LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...BUT BULK OF
PRECIP SHOULD STAY OFF TO OUR N. WILL MAINTAIN A 20% POP ACRS THE
FAR NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS INTO MIDDAY MON...BUT
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
FROM MON-TUE...500 MB HEIGHTS RISE AND BULK OF TSTM ACTIVITY
SHOULD CONTINUE TO STAY OFF TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP A LATE
AFTN/EVENING 20% POP OVER JUST THE FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON
TUE...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA WED/THU (UP TO 30% FAR NW). INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH
TEMPS WARMING BACK TO 85-90 F MON...AND UPPER 80S TO LWR 90S
TUE-THU...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS (GFS HIGHS ONLY IN MID-UPPER
80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS PATTERN). CONDITIONS
WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDS AT ALL TERMINALS WITH CLEARING TREND WELL UNDERWAY. MUCH
DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL MIX OUT ANY
LINGERING SCT STRATUS OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HRS. A CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CLEAR/SUNNY SKY AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI AFTN THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT NNW WINDS ~15-20 KT ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
MORNING, WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
MORNING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS STEADILY W/SFC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM QUICKLY EJECTING NE TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGH RES MODELS REFLECTING A FEW MORE GUSTS TO ~25 KT
OVER NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MID-MORNING, SO WILL ALLOW
EXISTING SCA TO EXPIRE ON TIME LATER THIS MORNING...EXPIRING ONLY
LOWER BAY AND SOUND WITH 7AM ISSUANCE. WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT
ON AVERAGE BY AFTN, WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT ALONG THE
COASTAL WATERS LATER TODAY. ANOTHER BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AS COOL ~1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE N.

ANTICIPATE ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW END SCA CONDITIONS WITH
(DRY) SFC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT, AND EXPECT FLAGS WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS TIME FRAME ONCE CURRENT SCA IS DROPPED.
GRADIENT SLACKENS QUICKLY SATURDAY AND EXPECT WINDS TO AGAIN DROP
OFF QUICKLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE
COAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. RESULTANT SFC
FLOW BACKS TO THE S/SE FOR LATER SAT THROUGH MONDAY AVGG AOB 15
KT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ633-
     638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221104
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
704 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE COAST SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...LO PRES WAS CNTRD WELL OFF THE DE CST...WHILE
HI PRES WAS CNTRD OVER THE MID-MS VALLEY. THAT LO WILL TRACK NE
AWAY INTO THE NRN ATLC TODAY...WHILE HI PRES REMAINS WNW OF THE
AREA FOR MUCH OF TODAY. EXPECT LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPS IN THE LWR TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW A SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THIS
EVENG INTO TNGT. EXPECT JUST SOME CLOUDS WITH THIS FRONT...ESPLY
ACRS THE NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE. LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 40S
OVR THE NW/NRN COUNTIES...TO THE MID TO UPR 50S SE. COOL HI PRES
SETTLES OVER THE MID-ATLC REGION ON SAT. ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY
EXPECTED WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE...AS NNE WINDS BECOME ONSHORE LATE
IN THE DAY. HIGHS 70-75 INLAND/PIEDMONT...AND IN THE MID TO UPR
60S NEAR THE WATER. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SAT NGT WITH LOWS IN
THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S. THE SFC HI SHIFTS INTO THE ATLC ON
SUN...RESULTING IN A SOUTHERLY FLO OVR THE REGION. EXPECT A LITTLE
MORE HUMIDITY AND WARMER TEMPS RANGING FM THE MID 70S TO LWR 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF REMAINING INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SE GA/FLORIDA SUN
NIGHT...BUILDING BACK NORTH INTO THE MID ATLC STATES MON/TUE.
LATEST GFS DAMPENS THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT BY MIDWEEK...BUT HAS GENLY
TRENDED TO THE STRONGER RIDGE SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF. THIS PATTERN
WILL LEAD TO WARM/SUMMER-LIKE WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. A
WEAK WARM FRONT STILL PROGGED TO LIFT N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
AND NRN MID ATLC REGION LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...BUT BULK OF
PRECIP SHOULD STAY OFF TO OUR N. WILL MAINTAIN A 20% POP ACRS THE
FAR NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS INTO MIDDAY MON...BUT
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
FROM MON-TUE...500 MB HEIGHTS RISE AND BULK OF TSTM ACTIVITY
SHOULD CONTINUE TO STAY OFF TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP A LATE
AFTN/EVENING 20% POP OVER JUST THE FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON
TUE...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA WED/THU (UP TO 30% FAR NW). INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH
TEMPS WARMING BACK TO 85-90 F MON...AND UPPER 80S TO LWR 90S
TUE-THU...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS (GFS HIGHS ONLY IN MID-UPPER
80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS PATTERN). CONDITIONS
WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDS AT ALL TERMINALS WITH CLEARING TREND WELL UNDERWAY. MUCH
DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL MIX OUT ANY
LINGERING SCT STRATUS OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HRS. A CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CLEAR/SUNNY SKY AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI AFTN THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT NNW WINDS ~15-20 KT ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
MORNING, WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
MORNING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS STEADILY W/SFC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM QUICKLY EJECTING NE TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGH RES MODELS REFLECTING A FEW MORE GUSTS TO ~25 KT
OVER NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MID-MORNING, SO WILL ALLOW
EXISTING SCA TO EXPIRE ON TIME LATER THIS MORNING...EXPIRING ONLY
LOWER BAY AND SOUND WITH 7AM ISSUANCE. WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT
ON AVERAGE BY AFTN, WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT ALONG THE
COASTAL WATERS LATER TODAY. ANOTHER BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AS COOL ~1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE N.

ANTICIPATE ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW END SCA CONDITIONS WITH
(DRY) SFC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT, AND EXPECT FLAGS WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS TIME FRAME ONCE CURRENT SCA IS DROPPED.
GRADIENT SLACKENS QUICKLY SATURDAY AND EXPECT WINDS TO AGAIN DROP
OFF QUICKLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE
COAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. RESULTANT SFC
FLOW BACKS TO THE S/SE FOR LATER SAT THROUGH MONDAY AVGG AOB 15
KT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ633-
     638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220816
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
416 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE COAST SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...LO PRES WAS CNTRD WELL OFF THE DE CST...WHILE
HI PRES WAS CNTRD OVER THE MID-MS VALLEY. THAT LO WILL TRACK NE
AWAY INTO THE NRN ATLC TODAY...WHILE HI PRES REMAINS WNW OF THE
AREA FOR MUCH OF TODAY. EXPECT LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPS IN THE LWR TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW A SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THIS
EVENG INTO TNGT. EXPECT JUST SOME CLOUDS WITH THIS FRONT...ESPLY
ACRS THE NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE. LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 40S
OVR THE NW/NRN COUNTIES...TO THE MID TO UPR 50S SE. COOL HI PRES
SETTLES OVER THE MID-ATLC REGION ON SAT. ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY
EXPECTED WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE...AS NNE WINDS BECOME ONSHORE LATE
IN THE DAY. HIGHS 70-75 INLAND/PIEDMONT...AND IN THE MID TO UPR
60S NEAR THE WATER. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SAT NGT WITH LOWS IN
THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S. THE SFC HI SHIFTS INTO THE ATLC ON
SUN...RESULTING IN A SOUTHERLY FLO OVR THE REGION. EXPECT A LITTLE
MORE HUMIDITY AND WARMER TEMPS RANGING FM THE MID 70S TO LWR 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF REMAINING INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SE GA/FLORIDA SUN
NIGHT...BUILDING BACK NORTH INTO THE MID ATLC STATES MON/TUE.
LATEST GFS DAMPENS THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT BY MIDWEEK...BUT HAS GENLY
TRENDED TO THE STRONGER RIDGE SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF. THIS PATTERN
WILL LEAD TO WARM/SUMMER-LIKE WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. A
WEAK WARM FRONT STILL PROGGED TO LIFT N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
AND NRN MID ATLC REGION LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...BUT BULK OF
PRECIP SHOULD STAY OFF TO OUR N. WILL MAINTAIN A 20% POP ACRS THE
FAR NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS INTO MIDDAY MON...BUT
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
FROM MON-TUE...500 MB HEIGHTS RISE AND BULK OF TSTM ACTIVITY
SHOULD CONTINUE TO STAY OFF TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP A LATE
AFTN/EVENING 20% POP OVER JUST THE FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON
TUE...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA WED/THU (UP TO 30% FAR NW). INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH
TEMPS WARMING BACK TO 85-90 F MON...AND UPPER 80S TO LWR 90S
TUE-THU...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS (GFS HIGHS ONLY IN MID-UPPER
80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS PATTERN). CONDITIONS
WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR (LCL IFR) CONDITIONS ACROSS TERMINALS THIS MORNING, WITH A
GRADUAL CLEARING TREND EXPECTED AT ALL SITES OVER THE NEXT 4-6
HOURS W/ MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING IN THROUGH SUNRISE. EXPECT TO MIX
OUT ANY LINGERING SCT STRATUS BY MID MORNING, WITH A CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI AFTN THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT NNW WINDS ~20 KT ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING,
WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING
AS PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS STEADILY THROUGH MIDDAY AS SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY EJECTS NE TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY
TONIGHT. WITH WINDS STILL MARGINAL ALONG NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND
FAR N BAY ZONES, HAVE HELD SCA HEADLINES IN PLACE FOR NOW AND WILL
REASSESS WITH THE 7AM ISSUANCE. WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO DROP PART OF
THE SCA FOR NORTHERN WATERS PRIOR TO EXPIRATION TIME. WINDS DIMINISH
TO 10-15 KT ON AVERAGE BY AFTN, WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT ALONG
THE COASTAL WATERS LATER TODAY. ANOTHER BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AS COOL ~1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE N.

ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT WITH (DRY) SFC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT. GRADIENT
SLACKENS QUICKLY SATURDAY AND EXPECT WINDS TO AGAIN DROP OFF QUICKLY
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. RESULTANT SFC FLOW BACKS TO THE
S/SE FOR LATER SAT THROUGH MONDAY AVGG AOB 15 KT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ633-
     638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220816
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
416 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE COAST SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...LO PRES WAS CNTRD WELL OFF THE DE CST...WHILE
HI PRES WAS CNTRD OVER THE MID-MS VALLEY. THAT LO WILL TRACK NE
AWAY INTO THE NRN ATLC TODAY...WHILE HI PRES REMAINS WNW OF THE
AREA FOR MUCH OF TODAY. EXPECT LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPS IN THE LWR TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW A SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THIS
EVENG INTO TNGT. EXPECT JUST SOME CLOUDS WITH THIS FRONT...ESPLY
ACRS THE NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE. LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 40S
OVR THE NW/NRN COUNTIES...TO THE MID TO UPR 50S SE. COOL HI PRES
SETTLES OVER THE MID-ATLC REGION ON SAT. ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY
EXPECTED WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE...AS NNE WINDS BECOME ONSHORE LATE
IN THE DAY. HIGHS 70-75 INLAND/PIEDMONT...AND IN THE MID TO UPR
60S NEAR THE WATER. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SAT NGT WITH LOWS IN
THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S. THE SFC HI SHIFTS INTO THE ATLC ON
SUN...RESULTING IN A SOUTHERLY FLO OVR THE REGION. EXPECT A LITTLE
MORE HUMIDITY AND WARMER TEMPS RANGING FM THE MID 70S TO LWR 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF REMAINING INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SE GA/FLORIDA SUN
NIGHT...BUILDING BACK NORTH INTO THE MID ATLC STATES MON/TUE.
LATEST GFS DAMPENS THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT BY MIDWEEK...BUT HAS GENLY
TRENDED TO THE STRONGER RIDGE SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF. THIS PATTERN
WILL LEAD TO WARM/SUMMER-LIKE WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. A
WEAK WARM FRONT STILL PROGGED TO LIFT N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
AND NRN MID ATLC REGION LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...BUT BULK OF
PRECIP SHOULD STAY OFF TO OUR N. WILL MAINTAIN A 20% POP ACRS THE
FAR NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS INTO MIDDAY MON...BUT
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
FROM MON-TUE...500 MB HEIGHTS RISE AND BULK OF TSTM ACTIVITY
SHOULD CONTINUE TO STAY OFF TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP A LATE
AFTN/EVENING 20% POP OVER JUST THE FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON
TUE...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA WED/THU (UP TO 30% FAR NW). INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH
TEMPS WARMING BACK TO 85-90 F MON...AND UPPER 80S TO LWR 90S
TUE-THU...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS (GFS HIGHS ONLY IN MID-UPPER
80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS PATTERN). CONDITIONS
WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR (LCL IFR) CONDITIONS ACROSS TERMINALS THIS MORNING, WITH A
GRADUAL CLEARING TREND EXPECTED AT ALL SITES OVER THE NEXT 4-6
HOURS W/ MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING IN THROUGH SUNRISE. EXPECT TO MIX
OUT ANY LINGERING SCT STRATUS BY MID MORNING, WITH A CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI AFTN THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT NNW WINDS ~20 KT ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING,
WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING
AS PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS STEADILY THROUGH MIDDAY AS SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY EJECTS NE TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY
TONIGHT. WITH WINDS STILL MARGINAL ALONG NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND
FAR N BAY ZONES, HAVE HELD SCA HEADLINES IN PLACE FOR NOW AND WILL
REASSESS WITH THE 7AM ISSUANCE. WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO DROP PART OF
THE SCA FOR NORTHERN WATERS PRIOR TO EXPIRATION TIME. WINDS DIMINISH
TO 10-15 KT ON AVERAGE BY AFTN, WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT ALONG
THE COASTAL WATERS LATER TODAY. ANOTHER BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AS COOL ~1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE N.

ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT WITH (DRY) SFC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT. GRADIENT
SLACKENS QUICKLY SATURDAY AND EXPECT WINDS TO AGAIN DROP OFF QUICKLY
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. RESULTANT SFC FLOW BACKS TO THE
S/SE FOR LATER SAT THROUGH MONDAY AVGG AOB 15 KT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ633-
     638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220816
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
416 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE COAST SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...LO PRES WAS CNTRD WELL OFF THE DE CST...WHILE
HI PRES WAS CNTRD OVER THE MID-MS VALLEY. THAT LO WILL TRACK NE
AWAY INTO THE NRN ATLC TODAY...WHILE HI PRES REMAINS WNW OF THE
AREA FOR MUCH OF TODAY. EXPECT LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPS IN THE LWR TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW A SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THIS
EVENG INTO TNGT. EXPECT JUST SOME CLOUDS WITH THIS FRONT...ESPLY
ACRS THE NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE. LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 40S
OVR THE NW/NRN COUNTIES...TO THE MID TO UPR 50S SE. COOL HI PRES
SETTLES OVER THE MID-ATLC REGION ON SAT. ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY
EXPECTED WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE...AS NNE WINDS BECOME ONSHORE LATE
IN THE DAY. HIGHS 70-75 INLAND/PIEDMONT...AND IN THE MID TO UPR
60S NEAR THE WATER. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SAT NGT WITH LOWS IN
THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S. THE SFC HI SHIFTS INTO THE ATLC ON
SUN...RESULTING IN A SOUTHERLY FLO OVR THE REGION. EXPECT A LITTLE
MORE HUMIDITY AND WARMER TEMPS RANGING FM THE MID 70S TO LWR 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF REMAINING INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SE GA/FLORIDA SUN
NIGHT...BUILDING BACK NORTH INTO THE MID ATLC STATES MON/TUE.
LATEST GFS DAMPENS THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT BY MIDWEEK...BUT HAS GENLY
TRENDED TO THE STRONGER RIDGE SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF. THIS PATTERN
WILL LEAD TO WARM/SUMMER-LIKE WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. A
WEAK WARM FRONT STILL PROGGED TO LIFT N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
AND NRN MID ATLC REGION LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...BUT BULK OF
PRECIP SHOULD STAY OFF TO OUR N. WILL MAINTAIN A 20% POP ACRS THE
FAR NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS INTO MIDDAY MON...BUT
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
FROM MON-TUE...500 MB HEIGHTS RISE AND BULK OF TSTM ACTIVITY
SHOULD CONTINUE TO STAY OFF TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP A LATE
AFTN/EVENING 20% POP OVER JUST THE FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON
TUE...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA WED/THU (UP TO 30% FAR NW). INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH
TEMPS WARMING BACK TO 85-90 F MON...AND UPPER 80S TO LWR 90S
TUE-THU...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS (GFS HIGHS ONLY IN MID-UPPER
80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS PATTERN). CONDITIONS
WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR (LCL IFR) CONDITIONS ACROSS TERMINALS THIS MORNING, WITH A
GRADUAL CLEARING TREND EXPECTED AT ALL SITES OVER THE NEXT 4-6
HOURS W/ MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING IN THROUGH SUNRISE. EXPECT TO MIX
OUT ANY LINGERING SCT STRATUS BY MID MORNING, WITH A CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI AFTN THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT NNW WINDS ~20 KT ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING,
WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING
AS PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS STEADILY THROUGH MIDDAY AS SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY EJECTS NE TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY
TONIGHT. WITH WINDS STILL MARGINAL ALONG NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND
FAR N BAY ZONES, HAVE HELD SCA HEADLINES IN PLACE FOR NOW AND WILL
REASSESS WITH THE 7AM ISSUANCE. WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO DROP PART OF
THE SCA FOR NORTHERN WATERS PRIOR TO EXPIRATION TIME. WINDS DIMINISH
TO 10-15 KT ON AVERAGE BY AFTN, WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT ALONG
THE COASTAL WATERS LATER TODAY. ANOTHER BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AS COOL ~1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE N.

ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT WITH (DRY) SFC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT. GRADIENT
SLACKENS QUICKLY SATURDAY AND EXPECT WINDS TO AGAIN DROP OFF QUICKLY
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. RESULTANT SFC FLOW BACKS TO THE
S/SE FOR LATER SAT THROUGH MONDAY AVGG AOB 15 KT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ633-
     638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220816
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
416 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE COAST SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...LO PRES WAS CNTRD WELL OFF THE DE CST...WHILE
HI PRES WAS CNTRD OVER THE MID-MS VALLEY. THAT LO WILL TRACK NE
AWAY INTO THE NRN ATLC TODAY...WHILE HI PRES REMAINS WNW OF THE
AREA FOR MUCH OF TODAY. EXPECT LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPS IN THE LWR TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW A SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THIS
EVENG INTO TNGT. EXPECT JUST SOME CLOUDS WITH THIS FRONT...ESPLY
ACRS THE NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE. LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 40S
OVR THE NW/NRN COUNTIES...TO THE MID TO UPR 50S SE. COOL HI PRES
SETTLES OVER THE MID-ATLC REGION ON SAT. ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY
EXPECTED WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE...AS NNE WINDS BECOME ONSHORE LATE
IN THE DAY. HIGHS 70-75 INLAND/PIEDMONT...AND IN THE MID TO UPR
60S NEAR THE WATER. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SAT NGT WITH LOWS IN
THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S. THE SFC HI SHIFTS INTO THE ATLC ON
SUN...RESULTING IN A SOUTHERLY FLO OVR THE REGION. EXPECT A LITTLE
MORE HUMIDITY AND WARMER TEMPS RANGING FM THE MID 70S TO LWR 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF REMAINING INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SE GA/FLORIDA SUN
NIGHT...BUILDING BACK NORTH INTO THE MID ATLC STATES MON/TUE.
LATEST GFS DAMPENS THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT BY MIDWEEK...BUT HAS GENLY
TRENDED TO THE STRONGER RIDGE SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF. THIS PATTERN
WILL LEAD TO WARM/SUMMER-LIKE WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. A
WEAK WARM FRONT STILL PROGGED TO LIFT N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
AND NRN MID ATLC REGION LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...BUT BULK OF
PRECIP SHOULD STAY OFF TO OUR N. WILL MAINTAIN A 20% POP ACRS THE
FAR NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS INTO MIDDAY MON...BUT
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
FROM MON-TUE...500 MB HEIGHTS RISE AND BULK OF TSTM ACTIVITY
SHOULD CONTINUE TO STAY OFF TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP A LATE
AFTN/EVENING 20% POP OVER JUST THE FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON
TUE...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA WED/THU (UP TO 30% FAR NW). INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH
TEMPS WARMING BACK TO 85-90 F MON...AND UPPER 80S TO LWR 90S
TUE-THU...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS (GFS HIGHS ONLY IN MID-UPPER
80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS PATTERN). CONDITIONS
WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR (LCL IFR) CONDITIONS ACROSS TERMINALS THIS MORNING, WITH A
GRADUAL CLEARING TREND EXPECTED AT ALL SITES OVER THE NEXT 4-6
HOURS W/ MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING IN THROUGH SUNRISE. EXPECT TO MIX
OUT ANY LINGERING SCT STRATUS BY MID MORNING, WITH A CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI AFTN THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT NNW WINDS ~20 KT ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING,
WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING
AS PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS STEADILY THROUGH MIDDAY AS SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY EJECTS NE TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY
TONIGHT. WITH WINDS STILL MARGINAL ALONG NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND
FAR N BAY ZONES, HAVE HELD SCA HEADLINES IN PLACE FOR NOW AND WILL
REASSESS WITH THE 7AM ISSUANCE. WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO DROP PART OF
THE SCA FOR NORTHERN WATERS PRIOR TO EXPIRATION TIME. WINDS DIMINISH
TO 10-15 KT ON AVERAGE BY AFTN, WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT ALONG
THE COASTAL WATERS LATER TODAY. ANOTHER BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AS COOL ~1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE N.

ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT WITH (DRY) SFC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT. GRADIENT
SLACKENS QUICKLY SATURDAY AND EXPECT WINDS TO AGAIN DROP OFF QUICKLY
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. RESULTANT SFC FLOW BACKS TO THE
S/SE FOR LATER SAT THROUGH MONDAY AVGG AOB 15 KT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ633-
     638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220816
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
416 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE COAST SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...LO PRES WAS CNTRD WELL OFF THE DE CST...WHILE
HI PRES WAS CNTRD OVER THE MID-MS VALLEY. THAT LO WILL TRACK NE
AWAY INTO THE NRN ATLC TODAY...WHILE HI PRES REMAINS WNW OF THE
AREA FOR MUCH OF TODAY. EXPECT LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPS IN THE LWR TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW A SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THIS
EVENG INTO TNGT. EXPECT JUST SOME CLOUDS WITH THIS FRONT...ESPLY
ACRS THE NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE. LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 40S
OVR THE NW/NRN COUNTIES...TO THE MID TO UPR 50S SE. COOL HI PRES
SETTLES OVER THE MID-ATLC REGION ON SAT. ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY
EXPECTED WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE...AS NNE WINDS BECOME ONSHORE LATE
IN THE DAY. HIGHS 70-75 INLAND/PIEDMONT...AND IN THE MID TO UPR
60S NEAR THE WATER. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SAT NGT WITH LOWS IN
THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S. THE SFC HI SHIFTS INTO THE ATLC ON
SUN...RESULTING IN A SOUTHERLY FLO OVR THE REGION. EXPECT A LITTLE
MORE HUMIDITY AND WARMER TEMPS RANGING FM THE MID 70S TO LWR 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF REMAINING INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SE GA/FLORIDA SUN
NIGHT...BUILDING BACK NORTH INTO THE MID ATLC STATES MON/TUE.
LATEST GFS DAMPENS THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT BY MIDWEEK...BUT HAS GENLY
TRENDED TO THE STRONGER RIDGE SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF. THIS PATTERN
WILL LEAD TO WARM/SUMMER-LIKE WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. A
WEAK WARM FRONT STILL PROGGED TO LIFT N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
AND NRN MID ATLC REGION LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...BUT BULK OF
PRECIP SHOULD STAY OFF TO OUR N. WILL MAINTAIN A 20% POP ACRS THE
FAR NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS INTO MIDDAY MON...BUT
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
FROM MON-TUE...500 MB HEIGHTS RISE AND BULK OF TSTM ACTIVITY
SHOULD CONTINUE TO STAY OFF TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP A LATE
AFTN/EVENING 20% POP OVER JUST THE FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON
TUE...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA WED/THU (UP TO 30% FAR NW). INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH
TEMPS WARMING BACK TO 85-90 F MON...AND UPPER 80S TO LWR 90S
TUE-THU...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS (GFS HIGHS ONLY IN MID-UPPER
80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS PATTERN). CONDITIONS
WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR (LCL IFR) CONDITIONS ACROSS TERMINALS THIS MORNING, WITH A
GRADUAL CLEARING TREND EXPECTED AT ALL SITES OVER THE NEXT 4-6
HOURS W/ MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING IN THROUGH SUNRISE. EXPECT TO MIX
OUT ANY LINGERING SCT STRATUS BY MID MORNING, WITH A CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI AFTN THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT NNW WINDS ~20 KT ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING,
WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING
AS PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS STEADILY THROUGH MIDDAY AS SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY EJECTS NE TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY
TONIGHT. WITH WINDS STILL MARGINAL ALONG NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND
FAR N BAY ZONES, HAVE HELD SCA HEADLINES IN PLACE FOR NOW AND WILL
REASSESS WITH THE 7AM ISSUANCE. WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO DROP PART OF
THE SCA FOR NORTHERN WATERS PRIOR TO EXPIRATION TIME. WINDS DIMINISH
TO 10-15 KT ON AVERAGE BY AFTN, WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT ALONG
THE COASTAL WATERS LATER TODAY. ANOTHER BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AS COOL ~1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE N.

ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT WITH (DRY) SFC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT. GRADIENT
SLACKENS QUICKLY SATURDAY AND EXPECT WINDS TO AGAIN DROP OFF QUICKLY
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. RESULTANT SFC FLOW BACKS TO THE
S/SE FOR LATER SAT THROUGH MONDAY AVGG AOB 15 KT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ633-
     638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220816
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
416 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE COAST SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...LO PRES WAS CNTRD WELL OFF THE DE CST...WHILE
HI PRES WAS CNTRD OVER THE MID-MS VALLEY. THAT LO WILL TRACK NE
AWAY INTO THE NRN ATLC TODAY...WHILE HI PRES REMAINS WNW OF THE
AREA FOR MUCH OF TODAY. EXPECT LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPS IN THE LWR TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW A SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THIS
EVENG INTO TNGT. EXPECT JUST SOME CLOUDS WITH THIS FRONT...ESPLY
ACRS THE NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE. LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 40S
OVR THE NW/NRN COUNTIES...TO THE MID TO UPR 50S SE. COOL HI PRES
SETTLES OVER THE MID-ATLC REGION ON SAT. ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY
EXPECTED WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE...AS NNE WINDS BECOME ONSHORE LATE
IN THE DAY. HIGHS 70-75 INLAND/PIEDMONT...AND IN THE MID TO UPR
60S NEAR THE WATER. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SAT NGT WITH LOWS IN
THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S. THE SFC HI SHIFTS INTO THE ATLC ON
SUN...RESULTING IN A SOUTHERLY FLO OVR THE REGION. EXPECT A LITTLE
MORE HUMIDITY AND WARMER TEMPS RANGING FM THE MID 70S TO LWR 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF REMAINING INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SE GA/FLORIDA SUN
NIGHT...BUILDING BACK NORTH INTO THE MID ATLC STATES MON/TUE.
LATEST GFS DAMPENS THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT BY MIDWEEK...BUT HAS GENLY
TRENDED TO THE STRONGER RIDGE SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF. THIS PATTERN
WILL LEAD TO WARM/SUMMER-LIKE WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. A
WEAK WARM FRONT STILL PROGGED TO LIFT N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
AND NRN MID ATLC REGION LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...BUT BULK OF
PRECIP SHOULD STAY OFF TO OUR N. WILL MAINTAIN A 20% POP ACRS THE
FAR NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS INTO MIDDAY MON...BUT
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
FROM MON-TUE...500 MB HEIGHTS RISE AND BULK OF TSTM ACTIVITY
SHOULD CONTINUE TO STAY OFF TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP A LATE
AFTN/EVENING 20% POP OVER JUST THE FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON
TUE...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA WED/THU (UP TO 30% FAR NW). INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH
TEMPS WARMING BACK TO 85-90 F MON...AND UPPER 80S TO LWR 90S
TUE-THU...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS (GFS HIGHS ONLY IN MID-UPPER
80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS PATTERN). CONDITIONS
WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR (LCL IFR) CONDITIONS ACROSS TERMINALS THIS MORNING, WITH A
GRADUAL CLEARING TREND EXPECTED AT ALL SITES OVER THE NEXT 4-6
HOURS W/ MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING IN THROUGH SUNRISE. EXPECT TO MIX
OUT ANY LINGERING SCT STRATUS BY MID MORNING, WITH A CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI AFTN THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT NNW WINDS ~20 KT ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING,
WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING
AS PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS STEADILY THROUGH MIDDAY AS SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY EJECTS NE TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY
TONIGHT. WITH WINDS STILL MARGINAL ALONG NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND
FAR N BAY ZONES, HAVE HELD SCA HEADLINES IN PLACE FOR NOW AND WILL
REASSESS WITH THE 7AM ISSUANCE. WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO DROP PART OF
THE SCA FOR NORTHERN WATERS PRIOR TO EXPIRATION TIME. WINDS DIMINISH
TO 10-15 KT ON AVERAGE BY AFTN, WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT ALONG
THE COASTAL WATERS LATER TODAY. ANOTHER BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AS COOL ~1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE N.

ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT WITH (DRY) SFC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT. GRADIENT
SLACKENS QUICKLY SATURDAY AND EXPECT WINDS TO AGAIN DROP OFF QUICKLY
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. RESULTANT SFC FLOW BACKS TO THE
S/SE FOR LATER SAT THROUGH MONDAY AVGG AOB 15 KT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ633-
     638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM




000
FXUS61 KLWX 220745
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
345 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TODAY BEFORE PASSING THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING
OFF THE COAST SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
NOTICEABLY HOTTER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK
AS A SUMMER-LIKE AIR MASS ENTERS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE XCPT IN THE FAR SW
CORNER. A CDFNT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LKS WILL
MOVE SWD THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY POP UP
ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE THIS AFTERNOON SO INCLUDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THAT AREA. IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT UNDER A SOMEWHAT TIGHT PRES GRADIENT.
UNUSUALLY CHILLY AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD QUICKLY
SOUTHWARD AND BE CENTERED OVER SRN PA BY 12Z SAT. VERY COOL AND
DRY AIR MASS ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS WILL LEAD TO A RAPID
DROPOFF IN TEMPS OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY FROST LIKELY OVER FAR WRN
AREAS. FOR NOW INCLUDED PATCHY FROST IN GRIDS BUT WILL LET
DAYSHIFT MONITOR DEWPOINTS AND LET THEM DECIDE WHETHER A FROST
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED OR NOT. LATEST MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
TEMPS WILL FALL LOW ENOUGH FOR FROST TO FORM IN THAT AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
SATURDAY...RESULTING IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ALONG WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. AFTER A CHILLY START...THE SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S FOR MOST AREAS.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARD MID-ATLANTIC COAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE
A FEW DEGREES WARMER COMPARED FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT IT WILL STILL
TURN OUT CHILLY DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S IN SHELTERED VALLEYS TO THE MID AND
UPPER 50S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. UPPER-
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND NORTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING INTO OUR
AREA.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. THE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE NEXT 30 HRS. SCT AFTERNOON
CLOUDS EXPECTED OVER MRB WITH CIGS 040-050. WINDS GUSTING 20-25 KT
AT ALL TAF SITES XCPT LIGHTER WINDS AT KCHO.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED...BUT VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS INCREASE INSTABILITY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOLID SCA CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 20-25KT
ESPECIALLY NORTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING
OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN
DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING FOR THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT IT
WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO THE RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNUSUALLY COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE OBSERVED THURSDAY...MAY
21ST. WASHINGTON DULLES BROKE A DAILY RECORD FOR LOW MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE. THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE WAS 58 DEGREES AND THIS
BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 59 DEGREES SET BACK IN 2002.


&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ530-535-536-538.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ531>534-
     537-540>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/LFR
MARINE...BJL/LFR
CLIMATE...BJL



000
FXUS61 KLWX 220745
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
345 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TODAY BEFORE PASSING THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING
OFF THE COAST SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
NOTICEABLY HOTTER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK
AS A SUMMER-LIKE AIR MASS ENTERS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE XCPT IN THE FAR SW
CORNER. A CDFNT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LKS WILL
MOVE SWD THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY POP UP
ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE THIS AFTERNOON SO INCLUDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THAT AREA. IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT UNDER A SOMEWHAT TIGHT PRES GRADIENT.
UNUSUALLY CHILLY AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD QUICKLY
SOUTHWARD AND BE CENTERED OVER SRN PA BY 12Z SAT. VERY COOL AND
DRY AIR MASS ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS WILL LEAD TO A RAPID
DROPOFF IN TEMPS OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY FROST LIKELY OVER FAR WRN
AREAS. FOR NOW INCLUDED PATCHY FROST IN GRIDS BUT WILL LET
DAYSHIFT MONITOR DEWPOINTS AND LET THEM DECIDE WHETHER A FROST
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED OR NOT. LATEST MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
TEMPS WILL FALL LOW ENOUGH FOR FROST TO FORM IN THAT AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
SATURDAY...RESULTING IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ALONG WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. AFTER A CHILLY START...THE SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S FOR MOST AREAS.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARD MID-ATLANTIC COAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE
A FEW DEGREES WARMER COMPARED FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT IT WILL STILL
TURN OUT CHILLY DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S IN SHELTERED VALLEYS TO THE MID AND
UPPER 50S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. UPPER-
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND NORTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING INTO OUR
AREA.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. THE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE NEXT 30 HRS. SCT AFTERNOON
CLOUDS EXPECTED OVER MRB WITH CIGS 040-050. WINDS GUSTING 20-25 KT
AT ALL TAF SITES XCPT LIGHTER WINDS AT KCHO.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED...BUT VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS INCREASE INSTABILITY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOLID SCA CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 20-25KT
ESPECIALLY NORTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING
OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN
DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING FOR THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT IT
WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO THE RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNUSUALLY COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE OBSERVED THURSDAY...MAY
21ST. WASHINGTON DULLES BROKE A DAILY RECORD FOR LOW MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE. THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE WAS 58 DEGREES AND THIS
BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 59 DEGREES SET BACK IN 2002.


&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ530-535-536-538.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ531>534-
     537-540>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/LFR
MARINE...BJL/LFR
CLIMATE...BJL




000
FXUS61 KRNK 220730
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
330 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE MIDWEST AND BRING OVERALL
PLEASANT WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH
JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OF THUNDERSTORM WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW
NORMAL ON FRIDAY...BUT HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THE
INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY OUT
TO SEA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A SHARP H5 TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS BRINGING A BRIEF SHOT OF DRIER AND COOLER AIR
DOWN ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH UPSLOPE CLOUDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD TODAY
WITH CLOUDS DISSIPATING EVEN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND SEASONABLY
COOL CONDITIONS FOR THE DAYTIME...MAINLY UPPER 60S NW TO L/M 70S
SE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY
BUT LITTLE SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE BEHIND IT. MAIN EFFECT MAY
BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FOR THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AND ALLEGHANY
HIGHLANDS. OVERNIGHT LOOKS DRY AND AND MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...LOW 40 FAR NW TO NEAR 50 SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT FRIDAY...

THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE UNITED STATES.
CONCURRENTLY...AN UPPER LOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...WHILE ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL FEATURES ALLOW FOR
PLENTY OF WET AND STORMY WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY.

FOR OUR AREA DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ANTICIPATE A TREND TOWARDS
PROGRESSIVE WARMER TEMPERATURES THANKS TO THE BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE...AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE CENTER OF THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY
MEMORIAL DAY...THE 80S WILL BE COMMON PLACE WITH THE UPPER END OF
THIS RANGE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE PRECIPITATION FREE EACH OF THESE DAYS AND
NIGHTS. HOWEVER...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA ON MEMORIAL DAY AND NIGHT. THESE WILL BE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE CENTRAL CONUS SYSTEM
GRADUALLY GETTING CLOSER TO THIS REGION...AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT SKIRTING THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING IN THIS SAME REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...

WARMING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AMPLIFIES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...THE ACTUAL SURFACE
HIGH BECOMING ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST.

THIS WILL PLACE OUR FORECAST AREA IN A WARM/HUMID PATTERN WITH
MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEEP CONVECTION.  FORCING WILL BE MAINLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...SO LOOK FOR BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS TO BE ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AND LITTLE OR NO THREAT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT/TROF OVER THE MIDWEST MAY MOVE CLOSE ENOUGH TO US
BY MID WEEK TO HELP PROVIDE A BETTER FOCUS FOR DEEP CONVECTION...BUT
THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN LOW AS AVAILABLE
DYNAMICS ARE LACKING. TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEK LOOK TO BE QUITE
SUMMERLIKE WITH MUGGY HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 EAST...AND BALMY LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM EDT FRIDAY...

UPSLOPE LOW-LEVEL CLOUDINESS PERSISTING IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT
BUT TENDING TO BREAK UP EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH CONTINUED
MIXING AND DOWNSLOPING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH FOG AS WINDS REMAIN TOO
GUSTY WITH EXCEPTION OF LWB FOR SEVERAL HOURS LATER THIS MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR DEEP
MIXING WHICH ALONG WITH GOOD DRYING SHOULD MIX OUT ANY LINGERING
CLOUDS FRIDAY MORNING AND ESTABLISH VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES.
EXPECT NW FLOW TO BE A BIT GUSTY ESPECIALLY EARLY AT KROA...AND
FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST WHERE GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS APPEAR POSSIBLE
BY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS MAY BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOUNTAIN AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPCLY BY LATER TUESDAY...WHEN
PERIODS OF MVFR COULD OCCUR MAINLY BLUE RIDGE WEST. OTRW VFR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY OUTSIDE OF ANY LATE DAY CONVECTION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...JH/PC
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JH/PC



000
FXUS61 KRNK 220730
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
330 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE MIDWEST AND BRING OVERALL
PLEASANT WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH
JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OF THUNDERSTORM WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW
NORMAL ON FRIDAY...BUT HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THE
INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY OUT
TO SEA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A SHARP H5 TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS BRINGING A BRIEF SHOT OF DRIER AND COOLER AIR
DOWN ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH UPSLOPE CLOUDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD TODAY
WITH CLOUDS DISSIPATING EVEN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND SEASONABLY
COOL CONDITIONS FOR THE DAYTIME...MAINLY UPPER 60S NW TO L/M 70S
SE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY
BUT LITTLE SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE BEHIND IT. MAIN EFFECT MAY
BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FOR THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AND ALLEGHANY
HIGHLANDS. OVERNIGHT LOOKS DRY AND AND MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...LOW 40 FAR NW TO NEAR 50 SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT FRIDAY...

THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE UNITED STATES.
CONCURRENTLY...AN UPPER LOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...WHILE ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL FEATURES ALLOW FOR
PLENTY OF WET AND STORMY WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY.

FOR OUR AREA DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ANTICIPATE A TREND TOWARDS
PROGRESSIVE WARMER TEMPERATURES THANKS TO THE BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE...AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE CENTER OF THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY
MEMORIAL DAY...THE 80S WILL BE COMMON PLACE WITH THE UPPER END OF
THIS RANGE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE PRECIPITATION FREE EACH OF THESE DAYS AND
NIGHTS. HOWEVER...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA ON MEMORIAL DAY AND NIGHT. THESE WILL BE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE CENTRAL CONUS SYSTEM
GRADUALLY GETTING CLOSER TO THIS REGION...AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT SKIRTING THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING IN THIS SAME REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...

WARMING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AMPLIFIES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...THE ACTUAL SURFACE
HIGH BECOMING ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST.

THIS WILL PLACE OUR FORECAST AREA IN A WARM/HUMID PATTERN WITH
MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEEP CONVECTION.  FORCING WILL BE MAINLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...SO LOOK FOR BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS TO BE ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AND LITTLE OR NO THREAT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT/TROF OVER THE MIDWEST MAY MOVE CLOSE ENOUGH TO US
BY MID WEEK TO HELP PROVIDE A BETTER FOCUS FOR DEEP CONVECTION...BUT
THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN LOW AS AVAILABLE
DYNAMICS ARE LACKING. TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEK LOOK TO BE QUITE
SUMMERLIKE WITH MUGGY HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 EAST...AND BALMY LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM EDT FRIDAY...

UPSLOPE LOW-LEVEL CLOUDINESS PERSISTING IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT
BUT TENDING TO BREAK UP EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH CONTINUED
MIXING AND DOWNSLOPING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH FOG AS WINDS REMAIN TOO
GUSTY WITH EXCEPTION OF LWB FOR SEVERAL HOURS LATER THIS MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR DEEP
MIXING WHICH ALONG WITH GOOD DRYING SHOULD MIX OUT ANY LINGERING
CLOUDS FRIDAY MORNING AND ESTABLISH VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES.
EXPECT NW FLOW TO BE A BIT GUSTY ESPECIALLY EARLY AT KROA...AND
FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST WHERE GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS APPEAR POSSIBLE
BY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS MAY BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOUNTAIN AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPCLY BY LATER TUESDAY...WHEN
PERIODS OF MVFR COULD OCCUR MAINLY BLUE RIDGE WEST. OTRW VFR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY OUTSIDE OF ANY LATE DAY CONVECTION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...JH/PC
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JH/PC




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220606
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
206 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS
EVENING...THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE COAST SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS PLACES LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SE VA/NE NC
COAST THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE MID-MS
VALLEY. EARLIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PUSHED OFFSHORE...LEAVING
THE LOCAL AREA GENERALLY DRY. A SHORTWAVE VISIBLE ON GOES WATER
VAPOR TRAVERSING NRN OH/ERN GREAT LAKES REGION HAS GENERATED SOME
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER THE NRN PIEDMONT THIS EVENING TO GO
ALONG WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE TO
WANE THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL LIFT DISSIPATES. ALSO HELD ONTO
SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE COAST FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THRU MIDNIGHT.
SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION LATE TONIGHT AS THE
SFC LOW ACCELERATES AWAY FROM THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES IN
FROM THE WEST. DRYING CONDITIONS AND DECREASING CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED THRU EARLY FRI MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 40S NW TO MID 50S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WNW PREVAILS FOR MUCH OF FRI...ALLOWING
FOR SUNSHINE AND COMFORTABLE TEMPS. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS DO SHOW A SECONDARY COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTH LATE FRI...AND PASSING THRU THE AREA FRI EVE/NIGHT.
MODELS ARE NOT AS BULLISH ON PRODUCING ISOLD SHOWERS WITH THE
FRONT ACROSS THE NRN NECK/ERN SHORE...SO HAVE REMOVED THEM FROM
THE FORECAST. THE FRONT WILL HOWEVER PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS...ACROSS
MAINLY THE NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR
40S NW TO THE MID TO UPR 50S SE. BY SAT...COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED WITH NORTH WINDS
BECOMING ONSHORE LATE IN THE DAY HELPING TO KEEP MAX TEMPS IN
CHECK. HIGHS 70-75 INLAND/PIEDMONT...AND IN THE MID TO UPR 60S
NEAR THE WATER. THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY FOR CONTINUED
DRY WX. HIGH TEMPS WILL WARM BACK INTO THE UPR 70S/LOW 80S WITH
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF REMAINING INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SE GA/FLORIDA SUN
NIGHT...BUILDING BACK NORTH INTO THE MID ATLC STATES MON/TUE.
LATEST GFS DAMPENS THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT BY MIDWEEK...BUT HAS GENLY
TRENDED TO THE STRONGER RIDGE SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF. THIS PATTERN
WILL LEAD TO WARM/SUMMER-LIKE WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. A
WEAK WARM FRONT STILL PROGGED TO LIFT N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
AND NRN MID ATLC REGION LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...BUT BULK OF
PRECIP SHOULD STAY OFF TO OUR N. WILL MAINTAIN A 20% POP ACRS THE
FAR NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS INTO MIDDAY MON...BUT
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
FROM MON-TUE...500 MB HEIGHTS RISE AND BULK OF TSTM ACTIVITY
SHOULD CONTINUE TO STAY OFF TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP A LATE
AFTN/EVENING 20% POP OVER JUST THE FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON
TUE...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA WED/THU (UP TO 30% FAR NW). INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH
TEMPS WARMING BACK TO 85-90 F MON...AND UPPER 80S TO LWR 90S
TUE-THU...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS (GFS HIGHS ONLY IN MID-UPPER
80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS PATTERN). CONDITIONS
WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR (LCL IFR) CONDITIONS ACROSS TERMINALS THIS MORNING, WITH A
GRADUAL CLEARING TREND EXPECTED AT ALL SITES OVER THE NEXT 4-6
HOURS W/ MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING IN THROUGH SUNRISE. EXPECT TO MIX
OUT ANY LINGERING SCT STRATUS BY MID MORNING, WITH A CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI AFTN THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
UPPER JAMES/RAPPAHANNOCK/YORK SCA EXPIRED AT 05Z...SCA FOR
BAY/SOUND/LOWER JAMES IN EFFECT UNTIL 7A.

PREV DISC...
PRESSURE GRADIENT TEMPORARILY HAS WEAKENED ACRS SOME OF THE AREA
GIVEN APPROACH OF SFC LOW...BUT WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HRS AND SHIFT TO THE NNW AS SFC LOW SLIDES OFFSHORE. QUICK
TIGHTENING OF SFC PG, A RESULT OF STRONG 6-HR PRESSURE RISES ON
THE ORDER OF 6-8 MB ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AS IT RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIES OFF THE COAST LATER TONIGHT, SHOULD ALLOW A STRONG
SCA SURGE OF WIND. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE OVER THE
BAY/SOUND/LOWER JAMES...AND WILL GO INTO PLACE LATER THIS EVENING
FOR THE COAST. SCA CONDITIONS DROP OFF LATER FRI MORNING AND CONDITIONS
IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRI AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY
SCOOTS TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AS COOL ~1030 MB HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N. THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
HEADLINES BEING NEEDED EXISTS WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
AS IT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT. THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFF THE COAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH THE
RESULTANT SFC FLOW BACKING TO THE S/SE, AVGG AOB 15 KT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ633-
     638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/SAM
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...MPR/JEF
MARINE...LKB/MAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220606
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
206 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS
EVENING...THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE COAST SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS PLACES LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SE VA/NE NC
COAST THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE MID-MS
VALLEY. EARLIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PUSHED OFFSHORE...LEAVING
THE LOCAL AREA GENERALLY DRY. A SHORTWAVE VISIBLE ON GOES WATER
VAPOR TRAVERSING NRN OH/ERN GREAT LAKES REGION HAS GENERATED SOME
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER THE NRN PIEDMONT THIS EVENING TO GO
ALONG WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE TO
WANE THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL LIFT DISSIPATES. ALSO HELD ONTO
SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE COAST FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THRU MIDNIGHT.
SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION LATE TONIGHT AS THE
SFC LOW ACCELERATES AWAY FROM THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES IN
FROM THE WEST. DRYING CONDITIONS AND DECREASING CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED THRU EARLY FRI MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 40S NW TO MID 50S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WNW PREVAILS FOR MUCH OF FRI...ALLOWING
FOR SUNSHINE AND COMFORTABLE TEMPS. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS DO SHOW A SECONDARY COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTH LATE FRI...AND PASSING THRU THE AREA FRI EVE/NIGHT.
MODELS ARE NOT AS BULLISH ON PRODUCING ISOLD SHOWERS WITH THE
FRONT ACROSS THE NRN NECK/ERN SHORE...SO HAVE REMOVED THEM FROM
THE FORECAST. THE FRONT WILL HOWEVER PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS...ACROSS
MAINLY THE NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR
40S NW TO THE MID TO UPR 50S SE. BY SAT...COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED WITH NORTH WINDS
BECOMING ONSHORE LATE IN THE DAY HELPING TO KEEP MAX TEMPS IN
CHECK. HIGHS 70-75 INLAND/PIEDMONT...AND IN THE MID TO UPR 60S
NEAR THE WATER. THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY FOR CONTINUED
DRY WX. HIGH TEMPS WILL WARM BACK INTO THE UPR 70S/LOW 80S WITH
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF REMAINING INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SE GA/FLORIDA SUN
NIGHT...BUILDING BACK NORTH INTO THE MID ATLC STATES MON/TUE.
LATEST GFS DAMPENS THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT BY MIDWEEK...BUT HAS GENLY
TRENDED TO THE STRONGER RIDGE SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF. THIS PATTERN
WILL LEAD TO WARM/SUMMER-LIKE WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. A
WEAK WARM FRONT STILL PROGGED TO LIFT N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
AND NRN MID ATLC REGION LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...BUT BULK OF
PRECIP SHOULD STAY OFF TO OUR N. WILL MAINTAIN A 20% POP ACRS THE
FAR NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS INTO MIDDAY MON...BUT
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
FROM MON-TUE...500 MB HEIGHTS RISE AND BULK OF TSTM ACTIVITY
SHOULD CONTINUE TO STAY OFF TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP A LATE
AFTN/EVENING 20% POP OVER JUST THE FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON
TUE...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA WED/THU (UP TO 30% FAR NW). INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH
TEMPS WARMING BACK TO 85-90 F MON...AND UPPER 80S TO LWR 90S
TUE-THU...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS (GFS HIGHS ONLY IN MID-UPPER
80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS PATTERN). CONDITIONS
WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR (LCL IFR) CONDITIONS ACROSS TERMINALS THIS MORNING, WITH A
GRADUAL CLEARING TREND EXPECTED AT ALL SITES OVER THE NEXT 4-6
HOURS W/ MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING IN THROUGH SUNRISE. EXPECT TO MIX
OUT ANY LINGERING SCT STRATUS BY MID MORNING, WITH A CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI AFTN THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
UPPER JAMES/RAPPAHANNOCK/YORK SCA EXPIRED AT 05Z...SCA FOR
BAY/SOUND/LOWER JAMES IN EFFECT UNTIL 7A.

PREV DISC...
PRESSURE GRADIENT TEMPORARILY HAS WEAKENED ACRS SOME OF THE AREA
GIVEN APPROACH OF SFC LOW...BUT WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HRS AND SHIFT TO THE NNW AS SFC LOW SLIDES OFFSHORE. QUICK
TIGHTENING OF SFC PG, A RESULT OF STRONG 6-HR PRESSURE RISES ON
THE ORDER OF 6-8 MB ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AS IT RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIES OFF THE COAST LATER TONIGHT, SHOULD ALLOW A STRONG
SCA SURGE OF WIND. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE OVER THE
BAY/SOUND/LOWER JAMES...AND WILL GO INTO PLACE LATER THIS EVENING
FOR THE COAST. SCA CONDITIONS DROP OFF LATER FRI MORNING AND CONDITIONS
IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRI AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY
SCOOTS TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AS COOL ~1030 MB HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N. THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
HEADLINES BEING NEEDED EXISTS WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
AS IT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT. THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFF THE COAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH THE
RESULTANT SFC FLOW BACKING TO THE S/SE, AVGG AOB 15 KT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ633-
     638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/SAM
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...MPR/JEF
MARINE...LKB/MAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220606
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
206 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS
EVENING...THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE COAST SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS PLACES LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SE VA/NE NC
COAST THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE MID-MS
VALLEY. EARLIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PUSHED OFFSHORE...LEAVING
THE LOCAL AREA GENERALLY DRY. A SHORTWAVE VISIBLE ON GOES WATER
VAPOR TRAVERSING NRN OH/ERN GREAT LAKES REGION HAS GENERATED SOME
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER THE NRN PIEDMONT THIS EVENING TO GO
ALONG WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE TO
WANE THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL LIFT DISSIPATES. ALSO HELD ONTO
SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE COAST FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THRU MIDNIGHT.
SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION LATE TONIGHT AS THE
SFC LOW ACCELERATES AWAY FROM THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES IN
FROM THE WEST. DRYING CONDITIONS AND DECREASING CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED THRU EARLY FRI MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 40S NW TO MID 50S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WNW PREVAILS FOR MUCH OF FRI...ALLOWING
FOR SUNSHINE AND COMFORTABLE TEMPS. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS DO SHOW A SECONDARY COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTH LATE FRI...AND PASSING THRU THE AREA FRI EVE/NIGHT.
MODELS ARE NOT AS BULLISH ON PRODUCING ISOLD SHOWERS WITH THE
FRONT ACROSS THE NRN NECK/ERN SHORE...SO HAVE REMOVED THEM FROM
THE FORECAST. THE FRONT WILL HOWEVER PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS...ACROSS
MAINLY THE NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR
40S NW TO THE MID TO UPR 50S SE. BY SAT...COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED WITH NORTH WINDS
BECOMING ONSHORE LATE IN THE DAY HELPING TO KEEP MAX TEMPS IN
CHECK. HIGHS 70-75 INLAND/PIEDMONT...AND IN THE MID TO UPR 60S
NEAR THE WATER. THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY FOR CONTINUED
DRY WX. HIGH TEMPS WILL WARM BACK INTO THE UPR 70S/LOW 80S WITH
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF REMAINING INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SE GA/FLORIDA SUN
NIGHT...BUILDING BACK NORTH INTO THE MID ATLC STATES MON/TUE.
LATEST GFS DAMPENS THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT BY MIDWEEK...BUT HAS GENLY
TRENDED TO THE STRONGER RIDGE SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF. THIS PATTERN
WILL LEAD TO WARM/SUMMER-LIKE WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. A
WEAK WARM FRONT STILL PROGGED TO LIFT N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
AND NRN MID ATLC REGION LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...BUT BULK OF
PRECIP SHOULD STAY OFF TO OUR N. WILL MAINTAIN A 20% POP ACRS THE
FAR NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS INTO MIDDAY MON...BUT
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
FROM MON-TUE...500 MB HEIGHTS RISE AND BULK OF TSTM ACTIVITY
SHOULD CONTINUE TO STAY OFF TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP A LATE
AFTN/EVENING 20% POP OVER JUST THE FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON
TUE...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA WED/THU (UP TO 30% FAR NW). INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH
TEMPS WARMING BACK TO 85-90 F MON...AND UPPER 80S TO LWR 90S
TUE-THU...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS (GFS HIGHS ONLY IN MID-UPPER
80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS PATTERN). CONDITIONS
WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR (LCL IFR) CONDITIONS ACROSS TERMINALS THIS MORNING, WITH A
GRADUAL CLEARING TREND EXPECTED AT ALL SITES OVER THE NEXT 4-6
HOURS W/ MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING IN THROUGH SUNRISE. EXPECT TO MIX
OUT ANY LINGERING SCT STRATUS BY MID MORNING, WITH A CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI AFTN THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
UPPER JAMES/RAPPAHANNOCK/YORK SCA EXPIRED AT 05Z...SCA FOR
BAY/SOUND/LOWER JAMES IN EFFECT UNTIL 7A.

PREV DISC...
PRESSURE GRADIENT TEMPORARILY HAS WEAKENED ACRS SOME OF THE AREA
GIVEN APPROACH OF SFC LOW...BUT WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HRS AND SHIFT TO THE NNW AS SFC LOW SLIDES OFFSHORE. QUICK
TIGHTENING OF SFC PG, A RESULT OF STRONG 6-HR PRESSURE RISES ON
THE ORDER OF 6-8 MB ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AS IT RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIES OFF THE COAST LATER TONIGHT, SHOULD ALLOW A STRONG
SCA SURGE OF WIND. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE OVER THE
BAY/SOUND/LOWER JAMES...AND WILL GO INTO PLACE LATER THIS EVENING
FOR THE COAST. SCA CONDITIONS DROP OFF LATER FRI MORNING AND CONDITIONS
IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRI AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY
SCOOTS TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AS COOL ~1030 MB HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N. THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
HEADLINES BEING NEEDED EXISTS WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
AS IT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT. THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFF THE COAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH THE
RESULTANT SFC FLOW BACKING TO THE S/SE, AVGG AOB 15 KT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ633-
     638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/SAM
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...MPR/JEF
MARINE...LKB/MAM



000
FXUS61 KRNK 220555
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
155 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE MIDWEST AND BRING OVERALL
PLEASANT WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH
JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OF THUNDERSTORM WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW
NORMAL ON FRIDAY...BUT HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THE
INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 150 AM EDT FRIDAY...

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY OUT
TO SEA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A SHARP H5 TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS BRINGING A BRIEF SHOT OF DRIER AND COOLER AIR
DOWN ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH UPSLOPE CLOUDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS.


PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
AS OF 840 PM EDT THURSDAY...

LATE WINTER/FALL SCENARIO LOOKS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH DECENT
PRESSURE RISES UNDER A 30-35 KT 85H JET...AND COOL ADVECTION
LIKELY TO KEEP GUSTS TO 25-35 KTS GOING ESPCLY ALONG THE RIDGES
UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT AS WELL. OTRW MAINLY CLOUDY WEST OVERNIGHT
PER UPSLOPE LOW CLOUDS AND SPILLOVER UNDER THE INVERSION ALOFT
TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE...TO BECOMING PC/MOSTLY CLEAR EAST AS
DOWNSLOPING FINALLY WINS OUT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. TEMPS
WITH THE BREEZE TO REMAIN CHILLY FOR LATE MAY AS COOL ADVECTION
THAT WILL PUSH 85H TEMPS BELOW +5C WEST SUPPORTS LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE COOL 40S TO AROUND 50 SE.

BETTER SUBSIDENCE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR TO MIX
DOWN FRIDAY MORNING AND BRING CLEARING AND COOL CONDITIONS TO THE
ENTIRE REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY BUT IS EXPECTED TO BRING
LITTLE MORE THAN INCREASING CLOUDS TO THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AND
ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WILL
COMBINE WITH A NORTHWEST BREEZE TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHILL IN THE AIR
AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...

LOOKING AT A NICE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE.  TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A FEW DEGREES
EACH DAY...STARTING THE WEEKEND NEAR NORMAL AND THEN GRADUALLY
WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL TO FINISH OFF THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS FROM THE CENTRAL OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...WHILE
SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH OF THE COAST ON SUNDAY...
SOUTHERLY WINDFLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO
RETURN ATLANTIC MOISTURE ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO BEGIN A WARMING TREND...RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW
80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SITUATED FROM THE
SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST.
MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP WEST OF INTERSTATE
77 DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER...HOWEVER INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE MINIMAL...AND CONFIDENCE
LOW TO INTRODUCE MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WORDING INTO
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...

WARMING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AMPLIFIES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...THE ACTUAL SURFACE
HIGH BECOMING ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST.

THIS WILL PLACE OUR FORECAST AREA IN A WARM/HUMID PATTERN WITH
MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEEP CONVECTION.  FORCING WILL BE MAINLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...SO LOOK FOR BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS TO BE ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AND LITTLE OR NO THREAT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT/TROF OVER THE MIDWEST MAY MOVE CLOSE ENOUGH TO US
BY MID WEEK TO HELP PROVIDE A BETTER FOCUS FOR DEEP CONVECTION...BUT
THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN LOW AS AVAILABLE
DYNAMICS ARE LACKING. TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEK LOOK TO BE QUITE
SUMMERLIKE WITH MUGGY HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 EAST...AND BALMY LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM EDT FRIDAY...

UPSLOPE LOW-LEVEL CLOUDINESS PERSISTING IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT
BUT TENDING TO BREAK UP EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH CONTINUED
MIXING AND DOWNSLOPING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH FOG AS WINDS REMAIN TOO
GUSTY WITH EXCEPTION OF LWB FOR SEVERAL HOURS LATER THIS MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR DEEP
MIXING WHICH ALONG WITH GOOD DRYING SHOULD MIX OUT ANY LINGERING
CLOUDS FRIDAY MORNING AND ESTABLISH VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES.
EXPECT NW FLOW TO BE A BIT GUSTY ESPECIALLY EARLY AT KROA...AND
FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST WHERE GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS APPEAR POSSIBLE
BY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS MAY BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOUNTAIN AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPCLY BY LATER TUESDAY...WHEN
PERIODS OF MVFR COULD OCCUR MAINLY BLUE RIDGE WEST. OTRW VFR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY OUTSIDE OF ANY LATE DAY CONVECTION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...JH/MBS
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JH/PC




000
FXUS61 KRNK 220555
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
155 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE MIDWEST AND BRING OVERALL
PLEASANT WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH
JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OF THUNDERSTORM WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW
NORMAL ON FRIDAY...BUT HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THE
INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 150 AM EDT FRIDAY...

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY OUT
TO SEA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A SHARP H5 TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS BRINGING A BRIEF SHOT OF DRIER AND COOLER AIR
DOWN ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH UPSLOPE CLOUDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS.


PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
AS OF 840 PM EDT THURSDAY...

LATE WINTER/FALL SCENARIO LOOKS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH DECENT
PRESSURE RISES UNDER A 30-35 KT 85H JET...AND COOL ADVECTION
LIKELY TO KEEP GUSTS TO 25-35 KTS GOING ESPCLY ALONG THE RIDGES
UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT AS WELL. OTRW MAINLY CLOUDY WEST OVERNIGHT
PER UPSLOPE LOW CLOUDS AND SPILLOVER UNDER THE INVERSION ALOFT
TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE...TO BECOMING PC/MOSTLY CLEAR EAST AS
DOWNSLOPING FINALLY WINS OUT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. TEMPS
WITH THE BREEZE TO REMAIN CHILLY FOR LATE MAY AS COOL ADVECTION
THAT WILL PUSH 85H TEMPS BELOW +5C WEST SUPPORTS LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE COOL 40S TO AROUND 50 SE.

BETTER SUBSIDENCE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR TO MIX
DOWN FRIDAY MORNING AND BRING CLEARING AND COOL CONDITIONS TO THE
ENTIRE REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY BUT IS EXPECTED TO BRING
LITTLE MORE THAN INCREASING CLOUDS TO THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AND
ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WILL
COMBINE WITH A NORTHWEST BREEZE TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHILL IN THE AIR
AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...

LOOKING AT A NICE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE.  TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A FEW DEGREES
EACH DAY...STARTING THE WEEKEND NEAR NORMAL AND THEN GRADUALLY
WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL TO FINISH OFF THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS FROM THE CENTRAL OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...WHILE
SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH OF THE COAST ON SUNDAY...
SOUTHERLY WINDFLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO
RETURN ATLANTIC MOISTURE ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO BEGIN A WARMING TREND...RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW
80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SITUATED FROM THE
SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST.
MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP WEST OF INTERSTATE
77 DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER...HOWEVER INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE MINIMAL...AND CONFIDENCE
LOW TO INTRODUCE MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WORDING INTO
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...

WARMING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AMPLIFIES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...THE ACTUAL SURFACE
HIGH BECOMING ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST.

THIS WILL PLACE OUR FORECAST AREA IN A WARM/HUMID PATTERN WITH
MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEEP CONVECTION.  FORCING WILL BE MAINLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...SO LOOK FOR BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS TO BE ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AND LITTLE OR NO THREAT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT/TROF OVER THE MIDWEST MAY MOVE CLOSE ENOUGH TO US
BY MID WEEK TO HELP PROVIDE A BETTER FOCUS FOR DEEP CONVECTION...BUT
THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN LOW AS AVAILABLE
DYNAMICS ARE LACKING. TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEK LOOK TO BE QUITE
SUMMERLIKE WITH MUGGY HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 EAST...AND BALMY LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM EDT FRIDAY...

UPSLOPE LOW-LEVEL CLOUDINESS PERSISTING IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT
BUT TENDING TO BREAK UP EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH CONTINUED
MIXING AND DOWNSLOPING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH FOG AS WINDS REMAIN TOO
GUSTY WITH EXCEPTION OF LWB FOR SEVERAL HOURS LATER THIS MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR DEEP
MIXING WHICH ALONG WITH GOOD DRYING SHOULD MIX OUT ANY LINGERING
CLOUDS FRIDAY MORNING AND ESTABLISH VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES.
EXPECT NW FLOW TO BE A BIT GUSTY ESPECIALLY EARLY AT KROA...AND
FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST WHERE GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS APPEAR POSSIBLE
BY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS MAY BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOUNTAIN AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPCLY BY LATER TUESDAY...WHEN
PERIODS OF MVFR COULD OCCUR MAINLY BLUE RIDGE WEST. OTRW VFR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY OUTSIDE OF ANY LATE DAY CONVECTION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...JH/MBS
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JH/PC



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