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000
FXUS61 KLWX 291434
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1034 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN SLIDES
OFFSHORE FOR THE WEEK AHEAD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

LAST NHC ADVSRY HAS BEEN ISSUED ON ERIKA UNLESS REDVELOPMENT OCCURS.

THE DAYLIGHT HRS TDA WL BE VERY SIMLR TO THE PRVS SVRL DAYS...ASIDE
FM SUBTLE WAA/DEWPT ADVCTN. WHILE NOT UNSTBL...AMS MAY BE ABLE TO
SUPPORT A CPL SHRA /TSRA?/ WITH THE SUPPORT OF TRRN CIRCULATIONS IN
THE APLCNS. WL BE FOCUSING ON THE HIER PEAKS /HIGHLAND-PENDLTN
CNTYS/ TIL SUNSET.

DIURNAL CU SHUD BE DSPTG DURING THE EVNG HRS...AND STILL BELIEVE
THAT THE OVNGT HRS WL BE MAINLY CLR. SINCE DEWPTS WL BUMP UP INTO
THE LWR 60S AND WINDS WL ONCE AGN DCPL...STAGE SHUD BE SLGTLY BETTER
FOR PATCHY FOG. AM STICKING W/ CLIMO...FAVORING THE PIEDMONT/SHEN
VLY/PTMC HIGHLANDS.

PTTN THUS FAR HAS FAVORED A MAV/EURO MAXT OUTPUT...AND WL EMPLOY
THAT SOLN WHILE MAINTAINING A FRACTION OF CONTINUITY FM PREV FCST.
MIN-T FCST WL BE A BLEND OF A MORE DIVERSE GDNC MEMBERSHIP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

H5 HGTS LESS ACRS THE GRTLKS/OHVLY/MID MS VLY AS A CUTOFF LOW
MEADERS NORTH. THIS WEAKNESS WL SUPPORT GREATER LAPSE RATES AND THUS
A BIT MORE INSTBY THAN PRVS DAYS. HARD TO TELL IF THERE WL BE A
CDFNT W/IN THIS ZONE OR NOT. EVEN IF THERE IS...IT WONT MAKE IT TO
THE CWFA. INSTEAD...GRDLY XPCT MORE WARMTH AND HUMIDITY TO
INFILTRATE AREA. THERMAL CHGS SUBTLE...AND THAT IS REFLECTED IN FCST
GRIDS. MANY SITES ALONG I-95 CRRDR MAY REACH 90F SUN AFTN...IN SPITE
OF MORE CLDCVR.

THE LARGER CHG WL BE TO THE POPS. SINCE THERE WL BE MORE SUPPORT FOR
RANDOM DIURNAL CNVCTN...HV HIER POPS FCSTD...SPCLY ACRS THE RDGS. HV
GNLY KEPT THIS THREAT W OF THE BLURDG /CHC POPS/...ALTHO SKIES WL BE
PTSUN AT BEST ACRS ENTIRE ARE DURING A PORTION OF THE AFTN HRS. RDGG
PARKED SE OF CWFA SHUD PREVENT STORMS FM ADVCG OUT OF THE MTNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL TEND TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN DURING THE LONG TERM...WITH DAY-TO-DAY WEATHER INFLUENCED BY
ITS POSITIONING AND MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH/NEAR
THE REGION. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES AOA
CLIMO NORMS...HUMIDITY WONT BE BE TOO HIGH...AND BENEFICIAL RAIN
CHANCES APPEAR LOW.

MON...MID/UPPER VORT MAX OVER GULF STATES WILL RIDE ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF RIDGE OVER ATLANTIC AND IMPACT MID-ATLANTIC EARLY IN
THE DAY. IT GETS SHEARED APART AND WEAKENS AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO
NORTHERN STREAM. TIMING OF FEATURE AND POOR LAPSE RATES...RESULTING
FROM NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILES ABOVE THE LCL...WILL LIKELY
LIMIT ACTIVITY TO MAINLY SHOWERS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH
PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUE/WED...POOR LAPSE RATES CONTINUE...WHICH WILL KEEP ISOLATED
DIURNAL CONVECTION CONFINED MAINLY TO HIGHER TERRAIN AND OUR
SOUTHWEST...WHERE TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS PROVIDE ADDED LIFT AND
SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE RESIDES.

THU/FRI...WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO
BETTER...THOUGH STILL LOW...CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS
ENTIRE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

VFR CONDS WL PREVAIL OVER THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TAF PD.

LGT SLY FLOW TAFTN-EVE W/ DIURNAL CU BASED NEAR 050. CIGS SHUD HOLD
ACRS THE MTNS. THERE MAY BE A STRAY STORM...BUT THAT SHUD STAY W OF
THE TERMINALS.

ANTHR ROUND OF POTL FOG PREDAWN SUN. AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS
LACKING. WUD KEEP IT AWAY FM THE HUBS THO.

DIURNAL CU WL DVLP ONCE AGN SUN AFTN-EVE...W/ SLGTLY GREATER CVRG OF
SHRA/TSRA IN THE MTNS. MRB MAY BE CLIPPED BY ONE OF THESE. NO IMPACT
XPCTD FOR BALT-WASH HUBS.

OUTSIDE OF PATCHY PREDAWN FOG...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WITH ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAINLY CONFINED TO
APPALACHIANS AND AWAY FROM MOST TERMINALS...EXCEPT CHO. WHILE
LOW...CHANCE FOR BRIEF SUB-VFR AT ALL TERMINALS OCCURS WEDNESDAY
WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY FLOW ON THE WATERS ARND 10 KT. SLY FLOW WL CONT THRU THE
WKND...ALTHO AN ONSHORE COMPONENT LKLY WL DVLP EACH AFTN.
SIMILARLY...SLY CHANNELING WL LKLY INCR OVNGT. AT THIS POINT...WL
KEEP WINDS UNDER SCA THRESHOLDS.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE BY MIDWEEK OVER THE
WATERS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...HTS/MSE




000
FXUS61 KLWX 291434
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1034 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN SLIDES
OFFSHORE FOR THE WEEK AHEAD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

LAST NHC ADVSRY HAS BEEN ISSUED ON ERIKA UNLESS REDVELOPMENT OCCURS.

THE DAYLIGHT HRS TDA WL BE VERY SIMLR TO THE PRVS SVRL DAYS...ASIDE
FM SUBTLE WAA/DEWPT ADVCTN. WHILE NOT UNSTBL...AMS MAY BE ABLE TO
SUPPORT A CPL SHRA /TSRA?/ WITH THE SUPPORT OF TRRN CIRCULATIONS IN
THE APLCNS. WL BE FOCUSING ON THE HIER PEAKS /HIGHLAND-PENDLTN
CNTYS/ TIL SUNSET.

DIURNAL CU SHUD BE DSPTG DURING THE EVNG HRS...AND STILL BELIEVE
THAT THE OVNGT HRS WL BE MAINLY CLR. SINCE DEWPTS WL BUMP UP INTO
THE LWR 60S AND WINDS WL ONCE AGN DCPL...STAGE SHUD BE SLGTLY BETTER
FOR PATCHY FOG. AM STICKING W/ CLIMO...FAVORING THE PIEDMONT/SHEN
VLY/PTMC HIGHLANDS.

PTTN THUS FAR HAS FAVORED A MAV/EURO MAXT OUTPUT...AND WL EMPLOY
THAT SOLN WHILE MAINTAINING A FRACTION OF CONTINUITY FM PREV FCST.
MIN-T FCST WL BE A BLEND OF A MORE DIVERSE GDNC MEMBERSHIP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

H5 HGTS LESS ACRS THE GRTLKS/OHVLY/MID MS VLY AS A CUTOFF LOW
MEADERS NORTH. THIS WEAKNESS WL SUPPORT GREATER LAPSE RATES AND THUS
A BIT MORE INSTBY THAN PRVS DAYS. HARD TO TELL IF THERE WL BE A
CDFNT W/IN THIS ZONE OR NOT. EVEN IF THERE IS...IT WONT MAKE IT TO
THE CWFA. INSTEAD...GRDLY XPCT MORE WARMTH AND HUMIDITY TO
INFILTRATE AREA. THERMAL CHGS SUBTLE...AND THAT IS REFLECTED IN FCST
GRIDS. MANY SITES ALONG I-95 CRRDR MAY REACH 90F SUN AFTN...IN SPITE
OF MORE CLDCVR.

THE LARGER CHG WL BE TO THE POPS. SINCE THERE WL BE MORE SUPPORT FOR
RANDOM DIURNAL CNVCTN...HV HIER POPS FCSTD...SPCLY ACRS THE RDGS. HV
GNLY KEPT THIS THREAT W OF THE BLURDG /CHC POPS/...ALTHO SKIES WL BE
PTSUN AT BEST ACRS ENTIRE ARE DURING A PORTION OF THE AFTN HRS. RDGG
PARKED SE OF CWFA SHUD PREVENT STORMS FM ADVCG OUT OF THE MTNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL TEND TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN DURING THE LONG TERM...WITH DAY-TO-DAY WEATHER INFLUENCED BY
ITS POSITIONING AND MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH/NEAR
THE REGION. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES AOA
CLIMO NORMS...HUMIDITY WONT BE BE TOO HIGH...AND BENEFICIAL RAIN
CHANCES APPEAR LOW.

MON...MID/UPPER VORT MAX OVER GULF STATES WILL RIDE ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF RIDGE OVER ATLANTIC AND IMPACT MID-ATLANTIC EARLY IN
THE DAY. IT GETS SHEARED APART AND WEAKENS AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO
NORTHERN STREAM. TIMING OF FEATURE AND POOR LAPSE RATES...RESULTING
FROM NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILES ABOVE THE LCL...WILL LIKELY
LIMIT ACTIVITY TO MAINLY SHOWERS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH
PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUE/WED...POOR LAPSE RATES CONTINUE...WHICH WILL KEEP ISOLATED
DIURNAL CONVECTION CONFINED MAINLY TO HIGHER TERRAIN AND OUR
SOUTHWEST...WHERE TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS PROVIDE ADDED LIFT AND
SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE RESIDES.

THU/FRI...WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO
BETTER...THOUGH STILL LOW...CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS
ENTIRE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

VFR CONDS WL PREVAIL OVER THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TAF PD.

LGT SLY FLOW TAFTN-EVE W/ DIURNAL CU BASED NEAR 050. CIGS SHUD HOLD
ACRS THE MTNS. THERE MAY BE A STRAY STORM...BUT THAT SHUD STAY W OF
THE TERMINALS.

ANTHR ROUND OF POTL FOG PREDAWN SUN. AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS
LACKING. WUD KEEP IT AWAY FM THE HUBS THO.

DIURNAL CU WL DVLP ONCE AGN SUN AFTN-EVE...W/ SLGTLY GREATER CVRG OF
SHRA/TSRA IN THE MTNS. MRB MAY BE CLIPPED BY ONE OF THESE. NO IMPACT
XPCTD FOR BALT-WASH HUBS.

OUTSIDE OF PATCHY PREDAWN FOG...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WITH ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAINLY CONFINED TO
APPALACHIANS AND AWAY FROM MOST TERMINALS...EXCEPT CHO. WHILE
LOW...CHANCE FOR BRIEF SUB-VFR AT ALL TERMINALS OCCURS WEDNESDAY
WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY FLOW ON THE WATERS ARND 10 KT. SLY FLOW WL CONT THRU THE
WKND...ALTHO AN ONSHORE COMPONENT LKLY WL DVLP EACH AFTN.
SIMILARLY...SLY CHANNELING WL LKLY INCR OVNGT. AT THIS POINT...WL
KEEP WINDS UNDER SCA THRESHOLDS.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE BY MIDWEEK OVER THE
WATERS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...HTS/MSE


  [top]

000
FXUS61 KRNK 291347
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
947 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA REGION FOR
MUCH OF TODAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH
ALONG THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT TO THE WEST. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...RESULTING IN MORE DIURNAL NATURE
SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT SATURDAY...

MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
VALLEY FOG HAS JUST ABOUT DISSIPATED BUT MID CLOUDS HAVE BLOSSOMED
AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING UP FROM THE SOUTH. BELIEVE THIS
EXTRA CLOUD COVER WILL FILTER INSOLATION JUST ENOUGH TO SLIGHTLY
INHIBIT WARMING...SO WILL ADJUST MAX TEMPS DOWN JUST A HAIR. THE
REST OF THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED WITH SLGT/LOW CHC POPS
WARRANTED IN THE FAR WEST FOR DIURNAL OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN
ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY FROM THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE OF VA INTO THE
GREENBRIER VALLEY AND ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS.

PREVIOUS AFD...

INSTABILITY REMAINS LIMITED...HOWEVER MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS
DEVELOP FROM THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE.
WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGING NUDGING ITS WAY CLOSER TO THE MID
ATLANTIC...WE CAN EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY...
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE
UPPER 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THIS EVENING...MAKING FOR MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FOR TONIGHT. WARMER AND MUGGIER...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S...WITH UPPER 50S FOR A FEW
OF THE DEEPER VALLEYS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT SATURDAY

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH A PLUME OF
MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM STREAMING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S.

MOST OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THIS
LOW OPENS AND LIFTS INTO OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY BEFORE
PUSHING EAST OF THE REGION BY LATE MONDAY...BEFORE UPPER HEIGHTS AND
HIGHER PWAT VALUES BUILD TUESDAY. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY
SLOWER AND FURTHER WEST WITH THIS FEATURE.

FOR SUNDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN ADVANCE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW ENTERS FAR SOUTHWEST VA ON SUNDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE A DRY LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE WITH LITTLE TO
NO CAPE. KEPT A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FAR WEST
WHERE BEST UVM IS FORECAST ALONG WITH HIGHEST FORECAST THETA-E
VALUES.  NUDGED TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO WITH THE EXPECTED
INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND BEST UPPER DYNAMICS ARRIVE. AS A
RESULT...INCREASED POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.

IT SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID MONDAY AND WARMER THANKS
TO AN INCREASE IN 1000-850MB THICKNESSES...AND LEANED TOWARD THE
WARM NAM MOS VALUES FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY. WHILE THE INITIAL UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BE EXITING OUR AREA DURING THE DAY...AND
TAKING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH IT...LINGERING INSTABILITY AND
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD TRIGGER DIURNALLY
DRIVEN WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.

PWAT VALUES CONTINUE TO SURGE TUESDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS...
LEADING TO A HUMID AND WARM DAY WITH MORE AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS
AND STORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM EDT FRIDAY...

OVERALL PERSISTENCE FORECAST AT LEAST EARLY ON AS UPPER RIDGING
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING WAVE ALOFT AND
IN INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WELL NORTH OF ERIKA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN TREND OF DAILY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE/EXPANSE FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY GIVEN BETTER PWATS/MOISTURE AND SLIGHT COOLING
ALOFT. HOWEVER THINK LOW/MEDIUM CHANCE POPS CONFINED MAINLY ALONG/WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE PER OROGRAPHICS...AND MORE ISOLATED ELSEWHERE
ESPECIALLY GIVEN MOISTURE OVER TOP A LINGERING SURFACE RIDGE. THUS
FOLLOWED CLOSER TO TRENDS FROM WPC WITH A GRADUAL BOOST IN POPS EACH
DAY BUT LITTLE DURING THE OVERNIGHTS INTO THURSDAY. THINGS BECOME MORE
UNCERTAIN BY DAY7 WITH MODELS LOWERING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
AND FROM THE NE WITH A POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR COOL FRONT. THIS
COULD HELP FOCUS MOISTURE GIVEN A BETTER EASTERLY TRAJECTORY TO THE
NORTH OF ERIKA OR ITS REMNANTS ON FRIDAY. THEREFORE GOING WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCE POPS PER POTENTIAL TROPICAL TYPE PWATS OVER THE AREA
DURING HEATING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE IN DAILY TEMPS GIVEN SUCH A HUMID/WARM
AIRMASS...SUPPORTING HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S EXCEPT
PERHAPS A BIT COOLER FRIDAY PENDING CLOUDS/SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM EDT SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA THIS MORNING...
MAINTAINING LIGHT SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDFLOW ACROSS THE AREA.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS GRADUALLY INCREASING AS THIS WINDFLOW DRAWS
ATLANTIC AIR UPSLOPE INTO THE MOUNTAINS...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN
MORE WIDESPREAD REPORTS OF MAINLY FG/BR ACROSS THE AREA COMPARED
TO PREVIOUS MORNINGS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS HAVE DETECTED SCATTERED CEILINGS IN THE 5KFT TO 8KFT
RANGE.

FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER 29/14Z WITH DAYTIME HEATING...
RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL
MAKE FOR A SCT CU FIELD DEVELOPING LATE MORNING...POSSIBLY
BECOMING BKN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING LATE AFTERNOON...WITH
CEILING BASES 5KFT TO 8KFT. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED...BUT MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA...POSSIBLY AS FAR EAST AS KBCB. EVEN THEN...SHOWER THREAT
IS NOT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SUB VFR CONDITIONS WHERE THEY OCCUR
FOR MORE THAN A FEW MINUTES. CONVECTION WILL WANE TOWARD SUNSET.

WITH INCREASING UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS DURING LATE SATURDAY EVENING...
EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT OF FG/BR WILL BE MORE ON THE PATCHY SIDE.
REGARDLESS...RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL BE LOCALLY DENSE...PUSHING
VISIBILITIES TO 1/4SM OR LESS IN SPOTS. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WILL
ALSO REMAIN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...WITH BASES IN THE
4KFT TO 6KFT RANGE...BUT POSSIBLY HIGH END MVFR IN SPOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL SUPPORT AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE SUNDAY/MONDAY
TIME FRAME. GENERALLY EXPECT THE BEST CHANCES FOR MVFR/IFR TO BE
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING DUE TO FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT FROM
THE BLUE RIDGE WEST ESPECIALLY AT KLWB/KBCB.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...MBS/NF
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...NF/WP



000
FXUS61 KRNK 291347
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
947 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA REGION FOR
MUCH OF TODAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH
ALONG THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT TO THE WEST. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...RESULTING IN MORE DIURNAL NATURE
SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT SATURDAY...

MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
VALLEY FOG HAS JUST ABOUT DISSIPATED BUT MID CLOUDS HAVE BLOSSOMED
AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING UP FROM THE SOUTH. BELIEVE THIS
EXTRA CLOUD COVER WILL FILTER INSOLATION JUST ENOUGH TO SLIGHTLY
INHIBIT WARMING...SO WILL ADJUST MAX TEMPS DOWN JUST A HAIR. THE
REST OF THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED WITH SLGT/LOW CHC POPS
WARRANTED IN THE FAR WEST FOR DIURNAL OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN
ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY FROM THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE OF VA INTO THE
GREENBRIER VALLEY AND ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS.

PREVIOUS AFD...

INSTABILITY REMAINS LIMITED...HOWEVER MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS
DEVELOP FROM THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE.
WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGING NUDGING ITS WAY CLOSER TO THE MID
ATLANTIC...WE CAN EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY...
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE
UPPER 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THIS EVENING...MAKING FOR MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FOR TONIGHT. WARMER AND MUGGIER...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S...WITH UPPER 50S FOR A FEW
OF THE DEEPER VALLEYS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT SATURDAY

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH A PLUME OF
MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM STREAMING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S.

MOST OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THIS
LOW OPENS AND LIFTS INTO OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY BEFORE
PUSHING EAST OF THE REGION BY LATE MONDAY...BEFORE UPPER HEIGHTS AND
HIGHER PWAT VALUES BUILD TUESDAY. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY
SLOWER AND FURTHER WEST WITH THIS FEATURE.

FOR SUNDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN ADVANCE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW ENTERS FAR SOUTHWEST VA ON SUNDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE A DRY LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE WITH LITTLE TO
NO CAPE. KEPT A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FAR WEST
WHERE BEST UVM IS FORECAST ALONG WITH HIGHEST FORECAST THETA-E
VALUES.  NUDGED TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO WITH THE EXPECTED
INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND BEST UPPER DYNAMICS ARRIVE. AS A
RESULT...INCREASED POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.

IT SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID MONDAY AND WARMER THANKS
TO AN INCREASE IN 1000-850MB THICKNESSES...AND LEANED TOWARD THE
WARM NAM MOS VALUES FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY. WHILE THE INITIAL UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BE EXITING OUR AREA DURING THE DAY...AND
TAKING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH IT...LINGERING INSTABILITY AND
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD TRIGGER DIURNALLY
DRIVEN WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.

PWAT VALUES CONTINUE TO SURGE TUESDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS...
LEADING TO A HUMID AND WARM DAY WITH MORE AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS
AND STORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM EDT FRIDAY...

OVERALL PERSISTENCE FORECAST AT LEAST EARLY ON AS UPPER RIDGING
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING WAVE ALOFT AND
IN INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WELL NORTH OF ERIKA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN TREND OF DAILY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE/EXPANSE FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY GIVEN BETTER PWATS/MOISTURE AND SLIGHT COOLING
ALOFT. HOWEVER THINK LOW/MEDIUM CHANCE POPS CONFINED MAINLY ALONG/WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE PER OROGRAPHICS...AND MORE ISOLATED ELSEWHERE
ESPECIALLY GIVEN MOISTURE OVER TOP A LINGERING SURFACE RIDGE. THUS
FOLLOWED CLOSER TO TRENDS FROM WPC WITH A GRADUAL BOOST IN POPS EACH
DAY BUT LITTLE DURING THE OVERNIGHTS INTO THURSDAY. THINGS BECOME MORE
UNCERTAIN BY DAY7 WITH MODELS LOWERING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
AND FROM THE NE WITH A POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR COOL FRONT. THIS
COULD HELP FOCUS MOISTURE GIVEN A BETTER EASTERLY TRAJECTORY TO THE
NORTH OF ERIKA OR ITS REMNANTS ON FRIDAY. THEREFORE GOING WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCE POPS PER POTENTIAL TROPICAL TYPE PWATS OVER THE AREA
DURING HEATING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE IN DAILY TEMPS GIVEN SUCH A HUMID/WARM
AIRMASS...SUPPORTING HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S EXCEPT
PERHAPS A BIT COOLER FRIDAY PENDING CLOUDS/SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM EDT SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA THIS MORNING...
MAINTAINING LIGHT SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDFLOW ACROSS THE AREA.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS GRADUALLY INCREASING AS THIS WINDFLOW DRAWS
ATLANTIC AIR UPSLOPE INTO THE MOUNTAINS...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN
MORE WIDESPREAD REPORTS OF MAINLY FG/BR ACROSS THE AREA COMPARED
TO PREVIOUS MORNINGS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS HAVE DETECTED SCATTERED CEILINGS IN THE 5KFT TO 8KFT
RANGE.

FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER 29/14Z WITH DAYTIME HEATING...
RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL
MAKE FOR A SCT CU FIELD DEVELOPING LATE MORNING...POSSIBLY
BECOMING BKN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING LATE AFTERNOON...WITH
CEILING BASES 5KFT TO 8KFT. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED...BUT MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA...POSSIBLY AS FAR EAST AS KBCB. EVEN THEN...SHOWER THREAT
IS NOT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SUB VFR CONDITIONS WHERE THEY OCCUR
FOR MORE THAN A FEW MINUTES. CONVECTION WILL WANE TOWARD SUNSET.

WITH INCREASING UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS DURING LATE SATURDAY EVENING...
EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT OF FG/BR WILL BE MORE ON THE PATCHY SIDE.
REGARDLESS...RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL BE LOCALLY DENSE...PUSHING
VISIBILITIES TO 1/4SM OR LESS IN SPOTS. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WILL
ALSO REMAIN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...WITH BASES IN THE
4KFT TO 6KFT RANGE...BUT POSSIBLY HIGH END MVFR IN SPOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL SUPPORT AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE SUNDAY/MONDAY
TIME FRAME. GENERALLY EXPECT THE BEST CHANCES FOR MVFR/IFR TO BE
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING DUE TO FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT FROM
THE BLUE RIDGE WEST ESPECIALLY AT KLWB/KBCB.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...MBS/NF
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...NF/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 291155
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
755 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA REGION FOR
MUCH OF TODAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH
ALONG THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT TO THE WEST. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...RESULTING IN MORE DIURNAL NATURE
SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA REGION THIS
MORNING...RESULTING IN SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS FOR MUCH OF OUR
AREA. NOT NEARLY AS MUCH COVERAGE OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...HOWEVER HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING
IN FROM THE SOUTH AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM
THE GULF COAST REGION.

FOR TODAY...INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL SUPPORT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...POSSIBLY BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING EARLY EVENING.
INSTABILITY REMAINS LIMITED...HOWEVER MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS
DEVELOP FROM THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE.
WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGING NUDGING ITS WAY CLOSER TO THE MID
ATLANTIC...WE CAN EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY...
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE
UPPER 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THIS EVENING...MAKING FOR MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FOR TONIGHT. WARMER AND MUGGIER...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S...WITH UPPER 50S FOR A FEW
OF THE DEEPER VALLEYS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT SATURDAY

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH A PLUME OF
MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM STREAMING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S.

MOST OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THIS
LOW OPENS AND LIFTS INTO OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY BEFORE
PUSHING EAST OF THE REGION BY LATE MONDAY...BEFORE UPPER HEIGHTS AND
HIGHER PWAT VALUES BUILD TUESDAY. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY
SLOWER AND FURTHER WEST WITH THIS FEATURE.

FOR SUNDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN ADVANCE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW ENTERS FAR SOUTHWEST VA ON SUNDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE A DRY LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE WITH LITTLE TO
NO CAPE. KEPT A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FAR WEST
WHERE BEST UVM IS FORECAST ALONG WITH HIGHEST FORECAST THETA-E
VALUES.  NUDGED TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO WITH THE EXPECTED
INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND BEST UPPER DYNAMICS ARRIVE. AS A
RESULT...INCREASED POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.

IT SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID MONDAY AND WARMER THANKS
TO AN INCREASE IN 1000-850MB THICKNESSES...AND LEANED TOWARD THE
WARM NAM MOS VALUES FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY. WHILE THE INITIAL UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BE EXITING OUR AREA DURING THE DAY...AND
TAKING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH IT...LINGERING INSTABILITY AND
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD TRIGGER DIURNALLY
DRIVEN WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.

PWAT VALUES CONTINUE TO SURGE TUESDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS...
LEADING TO A HUMID AND WARM DAY WITH MORE AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS
AND STORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM EDT FRIDAY...

OVERALL PERSISTENCE FORECAST AT LEAST EARLY ON AS UPPER RIDGING
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING WAVE ALOFT AND
IN INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WELL NORTH OF ERIKA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN TREND OF DAILY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE/EXPANSE FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY GIVEN BETTER PWATS/MOISTURE AND SLIGHT COOLING
ALOFT. HOWEVER THINK LOW/MEDIUM CHANCE POPS CONFINED MAINLY ALONG/WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE PER OROGRAPHICS...AND MORE ISOLATED ELSEWHERE
ESPECIALLY GIVEN MOISTURE OVER TOP A LINGERING SURFACE RIDGE. THUS
FOLLOWED CLOSER TO TRENDS FROM WPC WITH A GRADUAL BOOST IN POPS EACH
DAY BUT LITTLE DURING THE OVERNIGHTS INTO THURSDAY. THINGS BECOME MORE
UNCERTAIN BY DAY7 WITH MODELS LOWERING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
AND FROM THE NE WITH A POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR COOL FRONT. THIS
COULD HELP FOCUS MOISTURE GIVEN A BETTER EASTERLY TRAJECTORY TO THE
NORTH OF ERIKA OR ITS REMNANTS ON FRIDAY. THEREFORE GOING WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCE POPS PER POTENTIAL TROPICAL TYPE PWATS OVER THE AREA
DURING HEATING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE IN DAILY TEMPS GIVEN SUCH A HUMID/WARM
AIRMASS...SUPPORTING HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S EXCEPT
PERHAPS A BIT COOLER FRIDAY PENDING CLOUDS/SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM EDT SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA THIS MORNING...
MAINTAINING LIGHT SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDFLOW ACROSS THE AREA.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS GRADUALLY INCREASING AS THIS WINDFLOW DRAWS
ATLANTIC AIR UPSLOPE INTO THE MOUNTAINS...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN
MORE WIDESPREAD REPORTS OF MAINLY FG/BR ACROSS THE AREA COMPARED
TO PREVIOUS MORNINGS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS HAVE DETECTED SCATTERED CEILINGS IN THE 5KFT TO 8KFT
RANGE.

FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER 29/14Z WITH DAYTIME HEATING...
RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL
MAKE FOR A SCT CU FIELD DEVELOPING LATE MORNING...POSSIBLY
BECOMING BKN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING LATE AFTERNOON...WITH
CEILING BASES 5KFT TO 8KFT. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED...BUT MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA...POSSIBLY AS FAR EAST AS KBCB. EVEN THEN...SHOWER THREAT
IS NOT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SUB VFR CONDITIONS WHERE THEY OCCUR
FOR MORE THAN A FEW MINUTES. CONVECTION WILL WANE TOWARD SUNSET.

WITH INCREASING UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS DURING LATE SATURDAY EVENING...
EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT OF FG/BR WILL BE MORE ON THE PATCHY SIDE.
REGARDLESS...RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL BE LOCALLY DENSE...PUSHING
VISIBILITIES TO 1/4SM OR LESS IN SPOTS. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WILL
ALSO REMAIN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...WITH BASES IN THE
4KFT TO 6KFT RANGE...BUT POSSIBLY HIGH END MVFR IN SPOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL SUPPORT AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE SUNDAY/MONDAY
TIME FRAME. GENERALLY EXPECT THE BEST CHANCES FOR MVFR/IFR TO BE
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING DUE TO FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT FROM
THE BLUE RIDGE WEST ESPECIALLY AT KLWB/KBCB.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF/WP
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...NF/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 291155
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
755 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA REGION FOR
MUCH OF TODAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH
ALONG THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT TO THE WEST. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...RESULTING IN MORE DIURNAL NATURE
SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA REGION THIS
MORNING...RESULTING IN SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS FOR MUCH OF OUR
AREA. NOT NEARLY AS MUCH COVERAGE OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...HOWEVER HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING
IN FROM THE SOUTH AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM
THE GULF COAST REGION.

FOR TODAY...INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL SUPPORT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...POSSIBLY BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING EARLY EVENING.
INSTABILITY REMAINS LIMITED...HOWEVER MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS
DEVELOP FROM THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE.
WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGING NUDGING ITS WAY CLOSER TO THE MID
ATLANTIC...WE CAN EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY...
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE
UPPER 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THIS EVENING...MAKING FOR MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FOR TONIGHT. WARMER AND MUGGIER...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S...WITH UPPER 50S FOR A FEW
OF THE DEEPER VALLEYS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT SATURDAY

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH A PLUME OF
MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM STREAMING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S.

MOST OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THIS
LOW OPENS AND LIFTS INTO OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY BEFORE
PUSHING EAST OF THE REGION BY LATE MONDAY...BEFORE UPPER HEIGHTS AND
HIGHER PWAT VALUES BUILD TUESDAY. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY
SLOWER AND FURTHER WEST WITH THIS FEATURE.

FOR SUNDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN ADVANCE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW ENTERS FAR SOUTHWEST VA ON SUNDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE A DRY LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE WITH LITTLE TO
NO CAPE. KEPT A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FAR WEST
WHERE BEST UVM IS FORECAST ALONG WITH HIGHEST FORECAST THETA-E
VALUES.  NUDGED TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO WITH THE EXPECTED
INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND BEST UPPER DYNAMICS ARRIVE. AS A
RESULT...INCREASED POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.

IT SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID MONDAY AND WARMER THANKS
TO AN INCREASE IN 1000-850MB THICKNESSES...AND LEANED TOWARD THE
WARM NAM MOS VALUES FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY. WHILE THE INITIAL UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BE EXITING OUR AREA DURING THE DAY...AND
TAKING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH IT...LINGERING INSTABILITY AND
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD TRIGGER DIURNALLY
DRIVEN WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.

PWAT VALUES CONTINUE TO SURGE TUESDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS...
LEADING TO A HUMID AND WARM DAY WITH MORE AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS
AND STORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM EDT FRIDAY...

OVERALL PERSISTENCE FORECAST AT LEAST EARLY ON AS UPPER RIDGING
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING WAVE ALOFT AND
IN INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WELL NORTH OF ERIKA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN TREND OF DAILY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE/EXPANSE FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY GIVEN BETTER PWATS/MOISTURE AND SLIGHT COOLING
ALOFT. HOWEVER THINK LOW/MEDIUM CHANCE POPS CONFINED MAINLY ALONG/WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE PER OROGRAPHICS...AND MORE ISOLATED ELSEWHERE
ESPECIALLY GIVEN MOISTURE OVER TOP A LINGERING SURFACE RIDGE. THUS
FOLLOWED CLOSER TO TRENDS FROM WPC WITH A GRADUAL BOOST IN POPS EACH
DAY BUT LITTLE DURING THE OVERNIGHTS INTO THURSDAY. THINGS BECOME MORE
UNCERTAIN BY DAY7 WITH MODELS LOWERING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
AND FROM THE NE WITH A POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR COOL FRONT. THIS
COULD HELP FOCUS MOISTURE GIVEN A BETTER EASTERLY TRAJECTORY TO THE
NORTH OF ERIKA OR ITS REMNANTS ON FRIDAY. THEREFORE GOING WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCE POPS PER POTENTIAL TROPICAL TYPE PWATS OVER THE AREA
DURING HEATING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE IN DAILY TEMPS GIVEN SUCH A HUMID/WARM
AIRMASS...SUPPORTING HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S EXCEPT
PERHAPS A BIT COOLER FRIDAY PENDING CLOUDS/SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM EDT SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA THIS MORNING...
MAINTAINING LIGHT SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDFLOW ACROSS THE AREA.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS GRADUALLY INCREASING AS THIS WINDFLOW DRAWS
ATLANTIC AIR UPSLOPE INTO THE MOUNTAINS...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN
MORE WIDESPREAD REPORTS OF MAINLY FG/BR ACROSS THE AREA COMPARED
TO PREVIOUS MORNINGS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS HAVE DETECTED SCATTERED CEILINGS IN THE 5KFT TO 8KFT
RANGE.

FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER 29/14Z WITH DAYTIME HEATING...
RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL
MAKE FOR A SCT CU FIELD DEVELOPING LATE MORNING...POSSIBLY
BECOMING BKN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING LATE AFTERNOON...WITH
CEILING BASES 5KFT TO 8KFT. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED...BUT MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA...POSSIBLY AS FAR EAST AS KBCB. EVEN THEN...SHOWER THREAT
IS NOT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SUB VFR CONDITIONS WHERE THEY OCCUR
FOR MORE THAN A FEW MINUTES. CONVECTION WILL WANE TOWARD SUNSET.

WITH INCREASING UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS DURING LATE SATURDAY EVENING...
EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT OF FG/BR WILL BE MORE ON THE PATCHY SIDE.
REGARDLESS...RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL BE LOCALLY DENSE...PUSHING
VISIBILITIES TO 1/4SM OR LESS IN SPOTS. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WILL
ALSO REMAIN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...WITH BASES IN THE
4KFT TO 6KFT RANGE...BUT POSSIBLY HIGH END MVFR IN SPOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL SUPPORT AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE SUNDAY/MONDAY
TIME FRAME. GENERALLY EXPECT THE BEST CHANCES FOR MVFR/IFR TO BE
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING DUE TO FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT FROM
THE BLUE RIDGE WEST ESPECIALLY AT KLWB/KBCB.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF/WP
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...NF/WP



000
FXUS61 KRNK 291155
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
755 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA REGION FOR
MUCH OF TODAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH
ALONG THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT TO THE WEST. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...RESULTING IN MORE DIURNAL NATURE
SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA REGION THIS
MORNING...RESULTING IN SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS FOR MUCH OF OUR
AREA. NOT NEARLY AS MUCH COVERAGE OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...HOWEVER HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING
IN FROM THE SOUTH AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM
THE GULF COAST REGION.

FOR TODAY...INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL SUPPORT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...POSSIBLY BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING EARLY EVENING.
INSTABILITY REMAINS LIMITED...HOWEVER MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS
DEVELOP FROM THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE.
WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGING NUDGING ITS WAY CLOSER TO THE MID
ATLANTIC...WE CAN EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY...
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE
UPPER 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THIS EVENING...MAKING FOR MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FOR TONIGHT. WARMER AND MUGGIER...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S...WITH UPPER 50S FOR A FEW
OF THE DEEPER VALLEYS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT SATURDAY

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH A PLUME OF
MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM STREAMING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S.

MOST OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THIS
LOW OPENS AND LIFTS INTO OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY BEFORE
PUSHING EAST OF THE REGION BY LATE MONDAY...BEFORE UPPER HEIGHTS AND
HIGHER PWAT VALUES BUILD TUESDAY. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY
SLOWER AND FURTHER WEST WITH THIS FEATURE.

FOR SUNDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN ADVANCE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW ENTERS FAR SOUTHWEST VA ON SUNDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE A DRY LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE WITH LITTLE TO
NO CAPE. KEPT A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FAR WEST
WHERE BEST UVM IS FORECAST ALONG WITH HIGHEST FORECAST THETA-E
VALUES.  NUDGED TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO WITH THE EXPECTED
INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND BEST UPPER DYNAMICS ARRIVE. AS A
RESULT...INCREASED POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.

IT SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID MONDAY AND WARMER THANKS
TO AN INCREASE IN 1000-850MB THICKNESSES...AND LEANED TOWARD THE
WARM NAM MOS VALUES FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY. WHILE THE INITIAL UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BE EXITING OUR AREA DURING THE DAY...AND
TAKING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH IT...LINGERING INSTABILITY AND
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD TRIGGER DIURNALLY
DRIVEN WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.

PWAT VALUES CONTINUE TO SURGE TUESDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS...
LEADING TO A HUMID AND WARM DAY WITH MORE AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS
AND STORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM EDT FRIDAY...

OVERALL PERSISTENCE FORECAST AT LEAST EARLY ON AS UPPER RIDGING
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING WAVE ALOFT AND
IN INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WELL NORTH OF ERIKA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN TREND OF DAILY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE/EXPANSE FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY GIVEN BETTER PWATS/MOISTURE AND SLIGHT COOLING
ALOFT. HOWEVER THINK LOW/MEDIUM CHANCE POPS CONFINED MAINLY ALONG/WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE PER OROGRAPHICS...AND MORE ISOLATED ELSEWHERE
ESPECIALLY GIVEN MOISTURE OVER TOP A LINGERING SURFACE RIDGE. THUS
FOLLOWED CLOSER TO TRENDS FROM WPC WITH A GRADUAL BOOST IN POPS EACH
DAY BUT LITTLE DURING THE OVERNIGHTS INTO THURSDAY. THINGS BECOME MORE
UNCERTAIN BY DAY7 WITH MODELS LOWERING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
AND FROM THE NE WITH A POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR COOL FRONT. THIS
COULD HELP FOCUS MOISTURE GIVEN A BETTER EASTERLY TRAJECTORY TO THE
NORTH OF ERIKA OR ITS REMNANTS ON FRIDAY. THEREFORE GOING WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCE POPS PER POTENTIAL TROPICAL TYPE PWATS OVER THE AREA
DURING HEATING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE IN DAILY TEMPS GIVEN SUCH A HUMID/WARM
AIRMASS...SUPPORTING HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S EXCEPT
PERHAPS A BIT COOLER FRIDAY PENDING CLOUDS/SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM EDT SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA THIS MORNING...
MAINTAINING LIGHT SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDFLOW ACROSS THE AREA.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS GRADUALLY INCREASING AS THIS WINDFLOW DRAWS
ATLANTIC AIR UPSLOPE INTO THE MOUNTAINS...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN
MORE WIDESPREAD REPORTS OF MAINLY FG/BR ACROSS THE AREA COMPARED
TO PREVIOUS MORNINGS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS HAVE DETECTED SCATTERED CEILINGS IN THE 5KFT TO 8KFT
RANGE.

FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER 29/14Z WITH DAYTIME HEATING...
RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL
MAKE FOR A SCT CU FIELD DEVELOPING LATE MORNING...POSSIBLY
BECOMING BKN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING LATE AFTERNOON...WITH
CEILING BASES 5KFT TO 8KFT. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED...BUT MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA...POSSIBLY AS FAR EAST AS KBCB. EVEN THEN...SHOWER THREAT
IS NOT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SUB VFR CONDITIONS WHERE THEY OCCUR
FOR MORE THAN A FEW MINUTES. CONVECTION WILL WANE TOWARD SUNSET.

WITH INCREASING UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS DURING LATE SATURDAY EVENING...
EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT OF FG/BR WILL BE MORE ON THE PATCHY SIDE.
REGARDLESS...RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL BE LOCALLY DENSE...PUSHING
VISIBILITIES TO 1/4SM OR LESS IN SPOTS. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WILL
ALSO REMAIN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...WITH BASES IN THE
4KFT TO 6KFT RANGE...BUT POSSIBLY HIGH END MVFR IN SPOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL SUPPORT AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE SUNDAY/MONDAY
TIME FRAME. GENERALLY EXPECT THE BEST CHANCES FOR MVFR/IFR TO BE
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING DUE TO FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT FROM
THE BLUE RIDGE WEST ESPECIALLY AT KLWB/KBCB.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF/WP
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...NF/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 291155
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
755 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA REGION FOR
MUCH OF TODAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH
ALONG THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT TO THE WEST. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...RESULTING IN MORE DIURNAL NATURE
SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA REGION THIS
MORNING...RESULTING IN SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS FOR MUCH OF OUR
AREA. NOT NEARLY AS MUCH COVERAGE OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...HOWEVER HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING
IN FROM THE SOUTH AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM
THE GULF COAST REGION.

FOR TODAY...INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL SUPPORT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...POSSIBLY BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING EARLY EVENING.
INSTABILITY REMAINS LIMITED...HOWEVER MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS
DEVELOP FROM THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE.
WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGING NUDGING ITS WAY CLOSER TO THE MID
ATLANTIC...WE CAN EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY...
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE
UPPER 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THIS EVENING...MAKING FOR MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FOR TONIGHT. WARMER AND MUGGIER...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S...WITH UPPER 50S FOR A FEW
OF THE DEEPER VALLEYS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT SATURDAY

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH A PLUME OF
MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM STREAMING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S.

MOST OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THIS
LOW OPENS AND LIFTS INTO OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY BEFORE
PUSHING EAST OF THE REGION BY LATE MONDAY...BEFORE UPPER HEIGHTS AND
HIGHER PWAT VALUES BUILD TUESDAY. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY
SLOWER AND FURTHER WEST WITH THIS FEATURE.

FOR SUNDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN ADVANCE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW ENTERS FAR SOUTHWEST VA ON SUNDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE A DRY LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE WITH LITTLE TO
NO CAPE. KEPT A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FAR WEST
WHERE BEST UVM IS FORECAST ALONG WITH HIGHEST FORECAST THETA-E
VALUES.  NUDGED TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO WITH THE EXPECTED
INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND BEST UPPER DYNAMICS ARRIVE. AS A
RESULT...INCREASED POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.

IT SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID MONDAY AND WARMER THANKS
TO AN INCREASE IN 1000-850MB THICKNESSES...AND LEANED TOWARD THE
WARM NAM MOS VALUES FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY. WHILE THE INITIAL UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BE EXITING OUR AREA DURING THE DAY...AND
TAKING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH IT...LINGERING INSTABILITY AND
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD TRIGGER DIURNALLY
DRIVEN WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.

PWAT VALUES CONTINUE TO SURGE TUESDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS...
LEADING TO A HUMID AND WARM DAY WITH MORE AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS
AND STORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM EDT FRIDAY...

OVERALL PERSISTENCE FORECAST AT LEAST EARLY ON AS UPPER RIDGING
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING WAVE ALOFT AND
IN INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WELL NORTH OF ERIKA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN TREND OF DAILY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE/EXPANSE FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY GIVEN BETTER PWATS/MOISTURE AND SLIGHT COOLING
ALOFT. HOWEVER THINK LOW/MEDIUM CHANCE POPS CONFINED MAINLY ALONG/WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE PER OROGRAPHICS...AND MORE ISOLATED ELSEWHERE
ESPECIALLY GIVEN MOISTURE OVER TOP A LINGERING SURFACE RIDGE. THUS
FOLLOWED CLOSER TO TRENDS FROM WPC WITH A GRADUAL BOOST IN POPS EACH
DAY BUT LITTLE DURING THE OVERNIGHTS INTO THURSDAY. THINGS BECOME MORE
UNCERTAIN BY DAY7 WITH MODELS LOWERING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
AND FROM THE NE WITH A POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR COOL FRONT. THIS
COULD HELP FOCUS MOISTURE GIVEN A BETTER EASTERLY TRAJECTORY TO THE
NORTH OF ERIKA OR ITS REMNANTS ON FRIDAY. THEREFORE GOING WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCE POPS PER POTENTIAL TROPICAL TYPE PWATS OVER THE AREA
DURING HEATING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE IN DAILY TEMPS GIVEN SUCH A HUMID/WARM
AIRMASS...SUPPORTING HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S EXCEPT
PERHAPS A BIT COOLER FRIDAY PENDING CLOUDS/SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM EDT SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA THIS MORNING...
MAINTAINING LIGHT SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDFLOW ACROSS THE AREA.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS GRADUALLY INCREASING AS THIS WINDFLOW DRAWS
ATLANTIC AIR UPSLOPE INTO THE MOUNTAINS...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN
MORE WIDESPREAD REPORTS OF MAINLY FG/BR ACROSS THE AREA COMPARED
TO PREVIOUS MORNINGS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS HAVE DETECTED SCATTERED CEILINGS IN THE 5KFT TO 8KFT
RANGE.

FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER 29/14Z WITH DAYTIME HEATING...
RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL
MAKE FOR A SCT CU FIELD DEVELOPING LATE MORNING...POSSIBLY
BECOMING BKN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING LATE AFTERNOON...WITH
CEILING BASES 5KFT TO 8KFT. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED...BUT MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA...POSSIBLY AS FAR EAST AS KBCB. EVEN THEN...SHOWER THREAT
IS NOT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SUB VFR CONDITIONS WHERE THEY OCCUR
FOR MORE THAN A FEW MINUTES. CONVECTION WILL WANE TOWARD SUNSET.

WITH INCREASING UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS DURING LATE SATURDAY EVENING...
EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT OF FG/BR WILL BE MORE ON THE PATCHY SIDE.
REGARDLESS...RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL BE LOCALLY DENSE...PUSHING
VISIBILITIES TO 1/4SM OR LESS IN SPOTS. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WILL
ALSO REMAIN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...WITH BASES IN THE
4KFT TO 6KFT RANGE...BUT POSSIBLY HIGH END MVFR IN SPOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL SUPPORT AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE SUNDAY/MONDAY
TIME FRAME. GENERALLY EXPECT THE BEST CHANCES FOR MVFR/IFR TO BE
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING DUE TO FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT FROM
THE BLUE RIDGE WEST ESPECIALLY AT KLWB/KBCB.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF/WP
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...NF/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 291155
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
755 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA REGION FOR
MUCH OF TODAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH
ALONG THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT TO THE WEST. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...RESULTING IN MORE DIURNAL NATURE
SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA REGION THIS
MORNING...RESULTING IN SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS FOR MUCH OF OUR
AREA. NOT NEARLY AS MUCH COVERAGE OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...HOWEVER HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING
IN FROM THE SOUTH AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM
THE GULF COAST REGION.

FOR TODAY...INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL SUPPORT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...POSSIBLY BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING EARLY EVENING.
INSTABILITY REMAINS LIMITED...HOWEVER MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS
DEVELOP FROM THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE.
WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGING NUDGING ITS WAY CLOSER TO THE MID
ATLANTIC...WE CAN EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY...
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE
UPPER 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THIS EVENING...MAKING FOR MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FOR TONIGHT. WARMER AND MUGGIER...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S...WITH UPPER 50S FOR A FEW
OF THE DEEPER VALLEYS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT SATURDAY

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH A PLUME OF
MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM STREAMING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S.

MOST OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THIS
LOW OPENS AND LIFTS INTO OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY BEFORE
PUSHING EAST OF THE REGION BY LATE MONDAY...BEFORE UPPER HEIGHTS AND
HIGHER PWAT VALUES BUILD TUESDAY. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY
SLOWER AND FURTHER WEST WITH THIS FEATURE.

FOR SUNDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN ADVANCE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW ENTERS FAR SOUTHWEST VA ON SUNDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE A DRY LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE WITH LITTLE TO
NO CAPE. KEPT A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FAR WEST
WHERE BEST UVM IS FORECAST ALONG WITH HIGHEST FORECAST THETA-E
VALUES.  NUDGED TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO WITH THE EXPECTED
INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND BEST UPPER DYNAMICS ARRIVE. AS A
RESULT...INCREASED POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.

IT SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID MONDAY AND WARMER THANKS
TO AN INCREASE IN 1000-850MB THICKNESSES...AND LEANED TOWARD THE
WARM NAM MOS VALUES FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY. WHILE THE INITIAL UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BE EXITING OUR AREA DURING THE DAY...AND
TAKING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH IT...LINGERING INSTABILITY AND
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD TRIGGER DIURNALLY
DRIVEN WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.

PWAT VALUES CONTINUE TO SURGE TUESDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS...
LEADING TO A HUMID AND WARM DAY WITH MORE AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS
AND STORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM EDT FRIDAY...

OVERALL PERSISTENCE FORECAST AT LEAST EARLY ON AS UPPER RIDGING
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING WAVE ALOFT AND
IN INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WELL NORTH OF ERIKA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN TREND OF DAILY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE/EXPANSE FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY GIVEN BETTER PWATS/MOISTURE AND SLIGHT COOLING
ALOFT. HOWEVER THINK LOW/MEDIUM CHANCE POPS CONFINED MAINLY ALONG/WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE PER OROGRAPHICS...AND MORE ISOLATED ELSEWHERE
ESPECIALLY GIVEN MOISTURE OVER TOP A LINGERING SURFACE RIDGE. THUS
FOLLOWED CLOSER TO TRENDS FROM WPC WITH A GRADUAL BOOST IN POPS EACH
DAY BUT LITTLE DURING THE OVERNIGHTS INTO THURSDAY. THINGS BECOME MORE
UNCERTAIN BY DAY7 WITH MODELS LOWERING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
AND FROM THE NE WITH A POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR COOL FRONT. THIS
COULD HELP FOCUS MOISTURE GIVEN A BETTER EASTERLY TRAJECTORY TO THE
NORTH OF ERIKA OR ITS REMNANTS ON FRIDAY. THEREFORE GOING WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCE POPS PER POTENTIAL TROPICAL TYPE PWATS OVER THE AREA
DURING HEATING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE IN DAILY TEMPS GIVEN SUCH A HUMID/WARM
AIRMASS...SUPPORTING HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S EXCEPT
PERHAPS A BIT COOLER FRIDAY PENDING CLOUDS/SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM EDT SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA THIS MORNING...
MAINTAINING LIGHT SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDFLOW ACROSS THE AREA.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS GRADUALLY INCREASING AS THIS WINDFLOW DRAWS
ATLANTIC AIR UPSLOPE INTO THE MOUNTAINS...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN
MORE WIDESPREAD REPORTS OF MAINLY FG/BR ACROSS THE AREA COMPARED
TO PREVIOUS MORNINGS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS HAVE DETECTED SCATTERED CEILINGS IN THE 5KFT TO 8KFT
RANGE.

FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER 29/14Z WITH DAYTIME HEATING...
RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL
MAKE FOR A SCT CU FIELD DEVELOPING LATE MORNING...POSSIBLY
BECOMING BKN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING LATE AFTERNOON...WITH
CEILING BASES 5KFT TO 8KFT. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED...BUT MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA...POSSIBLY AS FAR EAST AS KBCB. EVEN THEN...SHOWER THREAT
IS NOT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SUB VFR CONDITIONS WHERE THEY OCCUR
FOR MORE THAN A FEW MINUTES. CONVECTION WILL WANE TOWARD SUNSET.

WITH INCREASING UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS DURING LATE SATURDAY EVENING...
EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT OF FG/BR WILL BE MORE ON THE PATCHY SIDE.
REGARDLESS...RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL BE LOCALLY DENSE...PUSHING
VISIBILITIES TO 1/4SM OR LESS IN SPOTS. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WILL
ALSO REMAIN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...WITH BASES IN THE
4KFT TO 6KFT RANGE...BUT POSSIBLY HIGH END MVFR IN SPOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL SUPPORT AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE SUNDAY/MONDAY
TIME FRAME. GENERALLY EXPECT THE BEST CHANCES FOR MVFR/IFR TO BE
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING DUE TO FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT FROM
THE BLUE RIDGE WEST ESPECIALLY AT KLWB/KBCB.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF/WP
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...NF/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 291155
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
755 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA REGION FOR
MUCH OF TODAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH
ALONG THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT TO THE WEST. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...RESULTING IN MORE DIURNAL NATURE
SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA REGION THIS
MORNING...RESULTING IN SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS FOR MUCH OF OUR
AREA. NOT NEARLY AS MUCH COVERAGE OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...HOWEVER HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING
IN FROM THE SOUTH AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM
THE GULF COAST REGION.

FOR TODAY...INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL SUPPORT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...POSSIBLY BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING EARLY EVENING.
INSTABILITY REMAINS LIMITED...HOWEVER MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS
DEVELOP FROM THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE.
WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGING NUDGING ITS WAY CLOSER TO THE MID
ATLANTIC...WE CAN EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY...
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE
UPPER 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THIS EVENING...MAKING FOR MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FOR TONIGHT. WARMER AND MUGGIER...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S...WITH UPPER 50S FOR A FEW
OF THE DEEPER VALLEYS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT SATURDAY

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH A PLUME OF
MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM STREAMING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S.

MOST OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THIS
LOW OPENS AND LIFTS INTO OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY BEFORE
PUSHING EAST OF THE REGION BY LATE MONDAY...BEFORE UPPER HEIGHTS AND
HIGHER PWAT VALUES BUILD TUESDAY. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY
SLOWER AND FURTHER WEST WITH THIS FEATURE.

FOR SUNDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN ADVANCE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW ENTERS FAR SOUTHWEST VA ON SUNDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE A DRY LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE WITH LITTLE TO
NO CAPE. KEPT A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FAR WEST
WHERE BEST UVM IS FORECAST ALONG WITH HIGHEST FORECAST THETA-E
VALUES.  NUDGED TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO WITH THE EXPECTED
INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND BEST UPPER DYNAMICS ARRIVE. AS A
RESULT...INCREASED POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.

IT SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID MONDAY AND WARMER THANKS
TO AN INCREASE IN 1000-850MB THICKNESSES...AND LEANED TOWARD THE
WARM NAM MOS VALUES FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY. WHILE THE INITIAL UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BE EXITING OUR AREA DURING THE DAY...AND
TAKING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH IT...LINGERING INSTABILITY AND
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD TRIGGER DIURNALLY
DRIVEN WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.

PWAT VALUES CONTINUE TO SURGE TUESDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS...
LEADING TO A HUMID AND WARM DAY WITH MORE AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS
AND STORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM EDT FRIDAY...

OVERALL PERSISTENCE FORECAST AT LEAST EARLY ON AS UPPER RIDGING
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING WAVE ALOFT AND
IN INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WELL NORTH OF ERIKA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN TREND OF DAILY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE/EXPANSE FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY GIVEN BETTER PWATS/MOISTURE AND SLIGHT COOLING
ALOFT. HOWEVER THINK LOW/MEDIUM CHANCE POPS CONFINED MAINLY ALONG/WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE PER OROGRAPHICS...AND MORE ISOLATED ELSEWHERE
ESPECIALLY GIVEN MOISTURE OVER TOP A LINGERING SURFACE RIDGE. THUS
FOLLOWED CLOSER TO TRENDS FROM WPC WITH A GRADUAL BOOST IN POPS EACH
DAY BUT LITTLE DURING THE OVERNIGHTS INTO THURSDAY. THINGS BECOME MORE
UNCERTAIN BY DAY7 WITH MODELS LOWERING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
AND FROM THE NE WITH A POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR COOL FRONT. THIS
COULD HELP FOCUS MOISTURE GIVEN A BETTER EASTERLY TRAJECTORY TO THE
NORTH OF ERIKA OR ITS REMNANTS ON FRIDAY. THEREFORE GOING WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCE POPS PER POTENTIAL TROPICAL TYPE PWATS OVER THE AREA
DURING HEATING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE IN DAILY TEMPS GIVEN SUCH A HUMID/WARM
AIRMASS...SUPPORTING HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S EXCEPT
PERHAPS A BIT COOLER FRIDAY PENDING CLOUDS/SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM EDT SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA THIS MORNING...
MAINTAINING LIGHT SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDFLOW ACROSS THE AREA.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS GRADUALLY INCREASING AS THIS WINDFLOW DRAWS
ATLANTIC AIR UPSLOPE INTO THE MOUNTAINS...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN
MORE WIDESPREAD REPORTS OF MAINLY FG/BR ACROSS THE AREA COMPARED
TO PREVIOUS MORNINGS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS HAVE DETECTED SCATTERED CEILINGS IN THE 5KFT TO 8KFT
RANGE.

FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER 29/14Z WITH DAYTIME HEATING...
RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL
MAKE FOR A SCT CU FIELD DEVELOPING LATE MORNING...POSSIBLY
BECOMING BKN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING LATE AFTERNOON...WITH
CEILING BASES 5KFT TO 8KFT. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED...BUT MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA...POSSIBLY AS FAR EAST AS KBCB. EVEN THEN...SHOWER THREAT
IS NOT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SUB VFR CONDITIONS WHERE THEY OCCUR
FOR MORE THAN A FEW MINUTES. CONVECTION WILL WANE TOWARD SUNSET.

WITH INCREASING UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS DURING LATE SATURDAY EVENING...
EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT OF FG/BR WILL BE MORE ON THE PATCHY SIDE.
REGARDLESS...RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL BE LOCALLY DENSE...PUSHING
VISIBILITIES TO 1/4SM OR LESS IN SPOTS. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WILL
ALSO REMAIN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...WITH BASES IN THE
4KFT TO 6KFT RANGE...BUT POSSIBLY HIGH END MVFR IN SPOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL SUPPORT AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE SUNDAY/MONDAY
TIME FRAME. GENERALLY EXPECT THE BEST CHANCES FOR MVFR/IFR TO BE
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING DUE TO FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT FROM
THE BLUE RIDGE WEST ESPECIALLY AT KLWB/KBCB.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF/WP
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...NF/WP



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 291057
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
657 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK OVER
THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS INDICATING ~1022 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER VA WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ACRS THE GULF STREAM OFF
THE GA/SC COAST. QUIET WEATHER PREVAILS UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH COMFORTABLY COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S
AND 60S. FOR TODAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH
WILL PROBABLY SEE A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF SCT/BKN AFTN CLOUD
COVER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY (BUT STILL AVERAGING OUT PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY). FOR HIGHS GENERALLY WENT NEAR TO OR JUST A DEGREE
ABOVE FRI READINGS...MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. DEW PTS
REMAIN IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. PARTLY CLOUDY AND A FEW DEGREES
WARMER TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY LOSES ITS GRIP ON THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...BUT THE FRONT THAT IS STALL OFF THE SE COAST DOES NOT GET
MUCH OF A PUSH TO COME BACK NORTH AND WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE/REMAIN
OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER  VALLEY LIFTING NORTHEAST AND INTO
THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LOW LEVELS APPEAR TOO DRY SUNDAY
FOR ANY PRECIP CHANCES...BUT A FAIRLY THICK LAYER OF MID/HIGH
CLOUD COVER IS DEPICTED BY NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM SW TO NE BY
THE AFTN. EXPECT THIS TO SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OFF WHAT THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES WOULD RISE TO IF IT WERE MOSTLY SUNNY. THUS...DESPITE
THE INCREASING THICKNESSES AND RISING 850 MB
TEMPERATURES....ACTUAL HIGHS WILL ONLY BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SAT
VALUES...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S WITH A FEW 90F READINGS POSSIBLE
IF CLOUDS HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY.

BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS PROGGED TO LIFT NE AND GET PICKED
UP BY A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH. THESE FEATURES MAY BE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS DESPITE FAIRLY WEAK LIFT
AND A LACK OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. WILL CARRY 20-30% POPS OVER FAR
SOUTHERN VA/NE NC AFTER 06Z/MON THROUGH THE REST OF MON
MORNING...AND WILL HAVE AT LEAST 20% POPS MON AFTN EXCEPT ON THE
MD ERN SHORE. A BIT MORE HUMID WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S SUN NIGHT...HIGHS MON MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90F.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY
BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A WEAK
TROUGH IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH THE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE
SERN US. THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM TS
ERIKA...OR ITS REMNANTS AT THAT TIME. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS
SHOWS THE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID-
ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED S OF THE REGION. GIVEN THIS...FORECAST POPS WILL BE BELOW
15%. BEYOND THAT THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY. IF THE MID-LEVEL HIGH
CENTER RETREATS FAR ENOUGH N SOME OF THIS MOISTURE COULD SPREAD INTO
THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...IF THE HIGH REMAINS OVERHEAD
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE REGION. 20-30% POPS HAVE BEEN
INTRODUCED MAINLY INTO FRIDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS UNCERTAINTY. WARM
AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THROUGH THE WEEK WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...WITH MID 80S AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY FORECAST HIGHS DROP INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S...WITH LOW 80S AT THE BEACHES. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. SFC WINDS CALM TO LIGHT...AOB 5 KT. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TODAY...RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND FEW-SCT AFTERNOON CU WITH DECKS 4-6K FT AGL. WINDS
GENERALLY S TO SE AOB 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY AND VFR CONDS WITH WINDS AOB 10 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE A THREAT
FOR PATCHY SHALLOW GROUND FOG EACH MORNING NEAR SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED OVER THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE RESULT IS A LIGHT ONSHORE BREEZE AOB 10 KT. WAVES GENERALLY 1-2
FT AND SEAS 2-3 FT NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT AND 3-4 FT SOUTH OF
CAPE CHARLES LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS BECOMING E-SE NORTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE BAY
AND S-NE SOUTH (AOB 10 KT). SEAS REMAIN GENERALLY UNCHANGED
TODAY...2-3 FT NORTH AND 3-4 FT SOUTH THANKS TO ONSHORE FLOW. LIGHT
ONSHORE WINDS CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-3 FT BY LATE
TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE AND SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST MID
WEEK. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTH TO WEST MON-WEDS AOB 10-15 KT. SEAS
AVERAGE 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...SAM
MARINE...SAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 291057
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
657 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK OVER
THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS INDICATING ~1022 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER VA WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ACRS THE GULF STREAM OFF
THE GA/SC COAST. QUIET WEATHER PREVAILS UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH COMFORTABLY COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S
AND 60S. FOR TODAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH
WILL PROBABLY SEE A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF SCT/BKN AFTN CLOUD
COVER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY (BUT STILL AVERAGING OUT PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY). FOR HIGHS GENERALLY WENT NEAR TO OR JUST A DEGREE
ABOVE FRI READINGS...MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. DEW PTS
REMAIN IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. PARTLY CLOUDY AND A FEW DEGREES
WARMER TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY LOSES ITS GRIP ON THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...BUT THE FRONT THAT IS STALL OFF THE SE COAST DOES NOT GET
MUCH OF A PUSH TO COME BACK NORTH AND WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE/REMAIN
OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER  VALLEY LIFTING NORTHEAST AND INTO
THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LOW LEVELS APPEAR TOO DRY SUNDAY
FOR ANY PRECIP CHANCES...BUT A FAIRLY THICK LAYER OF MID/HIGH
CLOUD COVER IS DEPICTED BY NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM SW TO NE BY
THE AFTN. EXPECT THIS TO SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OFF WHAT THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES WOULD RISE TO IF IT WERE MOSTLY SUNNY. THUS...DESPITE
THE INCREASING THICKNESSES AND RISING 850 MB
TEMPERATURES....ACTUAL HIGHS WILL ONLY BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SAT
VALUES...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S WITH A FEW 90F READINGS POSSIBLE
IF CLOUDS HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY.

BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS PROGGED TO LIFT NE AND GET PICKED
UP BY A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH. THESE FEATURES MAY BE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS DESPITE FAIRLY WEAK LIFT
AND A LACK OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. WILL CARRY 20-30% POPS OVER FAR
SOUTHERN VA/NE NC AFTER 06Z/MON THROUGH THE REST OF MON
MORNING...AND WILL HAVE AT LEAST 20% POPS MON AFTN EXCEPT ON THE
MD ERN SHORE. A BIT MORE HUMID WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S SUN NIGHT...HIGHS MON MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90F.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY
BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A WEAK
TROUGH IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH THE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE
SERN US. THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM TS
ERIKA...OR ITS REMNANTS AT THAT TIME. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS
SHOWS THE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID-
ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED S OF THE REGION. GIVEN THIS...FORECAST POPS WILL BE BELOW
15%. BEYOND THAT THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY. IF THE MID-LEVEL HIGH
CENTER RETREATS FAR ENOUGH N SOME OF THIS MOISTURE COULD SPREAD INTO
THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...IF THE HIGH REMAINS OVERHEAD
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE REGION. 20-30% POPS HAVE BEEN
INTRODUCED MAINLY INTO FRIDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS UNCERTAINTY. WARM
AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THROUGH THE WEEK WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...WITH MID 80S AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY FORECAST HIGHS DROP INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S...WITH LOW 80S AT THE BEACHES. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. SFC WINDS CALM TO LIGHT...AOB 5 KT. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TODAY...RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND FEW-SCT AFTERNOON CU WITH DECKS 4-6K FT AGL. WINDS
GENERALLY S TO SE AOB 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY AND VFR CONDS WITH WINDS AOB 10 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE A THREAT
FOR PATCHY SHALLOW GROUND FOG EACH MORNING NEAR SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED OVER THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE RESULT IS A LIGHT ONSHORE BREEZE AOB 10 KT. WAVES GENERALLY 1-2
FT AND SEAS 2-3 FT NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT AND 3-4 FT SOUTH OF
CAPE CHARLES LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS BECOMING E-SE NORTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE BAY
AND S-NE SOUTH (AOB 10 KT). SEAS REMAIN GENERALLY UNCHANGED
TODAY...2-3 FT NORTH AND 3-4 FT SOUTH THANKS TO ONSHORE FLOW. LIGHT
ONSHORE WINDS CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-3 FT BY LATE
TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE AND SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST MID
WEEK. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTH TO WEST MON-WEDS AOB 10-15 KT. SEAS
AVERAGE 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...SAM
MARINE...SAM



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 291057
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
657 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK OVER
THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS INDICATING ~1022 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER VA WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ACRS THE GULF STREAM OFF
THE GA/SC COAST. QUIET WEATHER PREVAILS UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH COMFORTABLY COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S
AND 60S. FOR TODAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH
WILL PROBABLY SEE A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF SCT/BKN AFTN CLOUD
COVER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY (BUT STILL AVERAGING OUT PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY). FOR HIGHS GENERALLY WENT NEAR TO OR JUST A DEGREE
ABOVE FRI READINGS...MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. DEW PTS
REMAIN IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. PARTLY CLOUDY AND A FEW DEGREES
WARMER TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY LOSES ITS GRIP ON THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...BUT THE FRONT THAT IS STALL OFF THE SE COAST DOES NOT GET
MUCH OF A PUSH TO COME BACK NORTH AND WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE/REMAIN
OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER  VALLEY LIFTING NORTHEAST AND INTO
THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LOW LEVELS APPEAR TOO DRY SUNDAY
FOR ANY PRECIP CHANCES...BUT A FAIRLY THICK LAYER OF MID/HIGH
CLOUD COVER IS DEPICTED BY NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM SW TO NE BY
THE AFTN. EXPECT THIS TO SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OFF WHAT THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES WOULD RISE TO IF IT WERE MOSTLY SUNNY. THUS...DESPITE
THE INCREASING THICKNESSES AND RISING 850 MB
TEMPERATURES....ACTUAL HIGHS WILL ONLY BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SAT
VALUES...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S WITH A FEW 90F READINGS POSSIBLE
IF CLOUDS HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY.

BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS PROGGED TO LIFT NE AND GET PICKED
UP BY A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH. THESE FEATURES MAY BE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS DESPITE FAIRLY WEAK LIFT
AND A LACK OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. WILL CARRY 20-30% POPS OVER FAR
SOUTHERN VA/NE NC AFTER 06Z/MON THROUGH THE REST OF MON
MORNING...AND WILL HAVE AT LEAST 20% POPS MON AFTN EXCEPT ON THE
MD ERN SHORE. A BIT MORE HUMID WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S SUN NIGHT...HIGHS MON MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90F.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY
BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A WEAK
TROUGH IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH THE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE
SERN US. THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM TS
ERIKA...OR ITS REMNANTS AT THAT TIME. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS
SHOWS THE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID-
ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED S OF THE REGION. GIVEN THIS...FORECAST POPS WILL BE BELOW
15%. BEYOND THAT THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY. IF THE MID-LEVEL HIGH
CENTER RETREATS FAR ENOUGH N SOME OF THIS MOISTURE COULD SPREAD INTO
THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...IF THE HIGH REMAINS OVERHEAD
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE REGION. 20-30% POPS HAVE BEEN
INTRODUCED MAINLY INTO FRIDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS UNCERTAINTY. WARM
AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THROUGH THE WEEK WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...WITH MID 80S AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY FORECAST HIGHS DROP INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S...WITH LOW 80S AT THE BEACHES. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. SFC WINDS CALM TO LIGHT...AOB 5 KT. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TODAY...RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND FEW-SCT AFTERNOON CU WITH DECKS 4-6K FT AGL. WINDS
GENERALLY S TO SE AOB 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY AND VFR CONDS WITH WINDS AOB 10 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE A THREAT
FOR PATCHY SHALLOW GROUND FOG EACH MORNING NEAR SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED OVER THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE RESULT IS A LIGHT ONSHORE BREEZE AOB 10 KT. WAVES GENERALLY 1-2
FT AND SEAS 2-3 FT NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT AND 3-4 FT SOUTH OF
CAPE CHARLES LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS BECOMING E-SE NORTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE BAY
AND S-NE SOUTH (AOB 10 KT). SEAS REMAIN GENERALLY UNCHANGED
TODAY...2-3 FT NORTH AND 3-4 FT SOUTH THANKS TO ONSHORE FLOW. LIGHT
ONSHORE WINDS CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-3 FT BY LATE
TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE AND SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST MID
WEEK. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTH TO WEST MON-WEDS AOB 10-15 KT. SEAS
AVERAGE 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...SAM
MARINE...SAM



000
FXUS61 KRNK 290814
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
414 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND
REMAIN ABOUT OVERHEAD INTO SATURDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...RESULTING
IN MORE DIURNAL NATURE SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA REGION THIS MORNING...
RESULTING IN SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS FOR MUCH OF OUR AREA. NOT
NEARLY AS MUCH COVERAGE OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...HOWEVER HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN
FROM THE SOUTH AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE
GULF COAST REGION.

FOR TODAY...INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL SUPPORT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...POSSIBLY BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING EARLY EVENING.
INSTABILITY REMAINS LIMITED...HOWEVER MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS
DEVELOP FROM THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE.
WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGING NUDGING ITS WAY CLOSER TO THE MID
ATLANTIC...WE CAN EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY...
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE
UPPER 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THIS EVENING...MAKING FOR MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FOR TONIGHT. WARMER AND MUGGIER...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S...WITH UPPER 50S FOR A FEW
OF THE DEEPER VALLEYS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT SATURDAY

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH A PLUME OF
MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM STREAMING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S.

MOST OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THIS
LOW OPENS AND LIFTS INTO OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY BEFORE
PUSHING EAST OF THE REGION BY LATE MONDAY...BEFORE UPPER HEIGHTS AND
HIGHER PWAT VALUES BUILD TUESDAY. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY
SLOWER AND FURTHER WEST WITH THIS FEATURE.

FOR SUNDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN ADVANCE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW ENTERS FAR SOUTHWEST VA ON SUNDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE A DRY LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE WITH LITTLE TO
NO CAPE. KEPT A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FAR WEST
WHERE BEST UVM IS FORECAST ALONG WITH HIGHEST FORECAST THETA-E
VALUES.  NUDGED TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO WITH THE EXPECTED
INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND BEST UPPER DYNAMICS ARRIVE. AS A
RESULT...INCREASED POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.

IT SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID MONDAY AND WARMER THANKS
TO AN INCREASE IN 1000-850MB THICKNESSES...AND LEANED TOWARD THE
WARM NAM MOS VALUES FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY. WHILE THE INITIAL UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BE EXITING OUR AREA DURING THE DAY...AND
TAKING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH IT...LINGERING INSTABILITY AND
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD TRIGGER DIURNALLY
DRIVEN WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.

PWAT VALUES CONTINUE TO SURGE TUESDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS...
LEADING TO A HUMID AND WARM DAY WITH MORE AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS
AND STORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM EDT FRIDAY...

OVERALL PERSISTENCE FORECAST AT LEAST EARLY ON AS UPPER RIDGING
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING WAVE ALOFT AND
IN INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WELL NORTH OF ERIKA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN TREND OF DAILY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE/EXPANSE FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY GIVEN BETTER PWATS/MOISTURE AND SLIGHT COOLING
ALOFT. HOWEVER THINK LOW/MEDIUM CHANCE POPS CONFINED MAINLY ALONG/WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE PER OROGRAPHICS...AND MORE ISOLATED ELSEWHERE
ESPECIALLY GIVEN MOISTURE OVER TOP A LINGERING SURFACE RIDGE. THUS
FOLLOWED CLOSER TO TRENDS FROM WPC WITH A GRADUAL BOOST IN POPS EACH
DAY BUT LITTLE DURING THE OVERNIGHTS INTO THURSDAY. THINGS BECOME MORE
UNCERTAIN BY DAY7 WITH MODELS LOWERING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
AND FROM THE NE WITH A POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR COOL FRONT. THIS
COULD HELP FOCUS MOISTURE GIVEN A BETTER EASTERLY TRAJECTORY TO THE
NORTH OF ERIKA OR ITS REMNANTS ON FRIDAY. THEREFORE GOING WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCE POPS PER POTENTIAL TROPICAL TYPE PWATS OVER THE AREA
DURING HEATING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE IN DAILY TEMPS GIVEN SUCH A HUMID/WARM
AIRMASS...SUPPORTING HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S EXCEPT
PERHAPS A BIT COOLER FRIDAY PENDING CLOUDS/SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 155 AM EDT SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA THIS MORNING...MAKING
FOR VERY LIGHT SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDFLOW ACROSS THE AREA. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS GRADUALLY INCREASING AS THIS WINDFLOW DRAWS
ATLANTIC AIR UPSLOPE INTO THE MOUNTAINS. AS SUCH...SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS HAVE DETECTED
SCATTERED CEILINGS IN THE 4KFT TO 6KFT RANGE...WHICH ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. MAY ALSO SEE THE VISIBILITY BOUNCE
UP AND DOWN IN SPOTS...DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER...AS PATCHY GROUND
FOG DEVELOPS ACROSS LOCATIONS WHERE THE SKIES CLEAR.

ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER 29/14Z WITH DAYTIME HEATING...
RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL
MAKE FOR A SCT CU FIELD DEVELOPING LATE MORNING...POSSIBLY
BECOMING BKN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING LATE AFTERNOON...WITH
CEILING BASES 4KFT TO 6KFT. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED...BUT MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA...POSSIBLY AS FAR EAST AS KBCB. EVEN THEN...SHOWER
THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SUB VFR CONDITIONS WHERE THEY
OCCUR FOR MORE THAN A FEW MINUTES. CONVECTION WILL WANE TOWARD
SUNSET.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
AS OF 130 PM EDT FRIDAY...

EXPECT A MAINLY VFR FORECAST INTO SUNDAY. MOISTURE GRADUALLY
INCREASES...WHICH WILL RAISE OUR CHANCES FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL GIVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME
FRAME. GENERALLY EXPECT THE BEST CHANCES FOR MVFR/IFR TO BE LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING DUE TO FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT FROM THE
BLUE RIDGE WEST ESPECIALLY AT KLWB/KBCB.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF/WP
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...NF/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 290814
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
414 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND
REMAIN ABOUT OVERHEAD INTO SATURDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...RESULTING
IN MORE DIURNAL NATURE SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA REGION THIS MORNING...
RESULTING IN SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS FOR MUCH OF OUR AREA. NOT
NEARLY AS MUCH COVERAGE OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...HOWEVER HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN
FROM THE SOUTH AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE
GULF COAST REGION.

FOR TODAY...INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL SUPPORT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...POSSIBLY BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING EARLY EVENING.
INSTABILITY REMAINS LIMITED...HOWEVER MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS
DEVELOP FROM THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE.
WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGING NUDGING ITS WAY CLOSER TO THE MID
ATLANTIC...WE CAN EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY...
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE
UPPER 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THIS EVENING...MAKING FOR MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FOR TONIGHT. WARMER AND MUGGIER...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S...WITH UPPER 50S FOR A FEW
OF THE DEEPER VALLEYS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT SATURDAY

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH A PLUME OF
MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM STREAMING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S.

MOST OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THIS
LOW OPENS AND LIFTS INTO OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY BEFORE
PUSHING EAST OF THE REGION BY LATE MONDAY...BEFORE UPPER HEIGHTS AND
HIGHER PWAT VALUES BUILD TUESDAY. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY
SLOWER AND FURTHER WEST WITH THIS FEATURE.

FOR SUNDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN ADVANCE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW ENTERS FAR SOUTHWEST VA ON SUNDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE A DRY LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE WITH LITTLE TO
NO CAPE. KEPT A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FAR WEST
WHERE BEST UVM IS FORECAST ALONG WITH HIGHEST FORECAST THETA-E
VALUES.  NUDGED TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO WITH THE EXPECTED
INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND BEST UPPER DYNAMICS ARRIVE. AS A
RESULT...INCREASED POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.

IT SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID MONDAY AND WARMER THANKS
TO AN INCREASE IN 1000-850MB THICKNESSES...AND LEANED TOWARD THE
WARM NAM MOS VALUES FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY. WHILE THE INITIAL UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BE EXITING OUR AREA DURING THE DAY...AND
TAKING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH IT...LINGERING INSTABILITY AND
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD TRIGGER DIURNALLY
DRIVEN WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.

PWAT VALUES CONTINUE TO SURGE TUESDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS...
LEADING TO A HUMID AND WARM DAY WITH MORE AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS
AND STORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM EDT FRIDAY...

OVERALL PERSISTENCE FORECAST AT LEAST EARLY ON AS UPPER RIDGING
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING WAVE ALOFT AND
IN INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WELL NORTH OF ERIKA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN TREND OF DAILY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE/EXPANSE FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY GIVEN BETTER PWATS/MOISTURE AND SLIGHT COOLING
ALOFT. HOWEVER THINK LOW/MEDIUM CHANCE POPS CONFINED MAINLY ALONG/WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE PER OROGRAPHICS...AND MORE ISOLATED ELSEWHERE
ESPECIALLY GIVEN MOISTURE OVER TOP A LINGERING SURFACE RIDGE. THUS
FOLLOWED CLOSER TO TRENDS FROM WPC WITH A GRADUAL BOOST IN POPS EACH
DAY BUT LITTLE DURING THE OVERNIGHTS INTO THURSDAY. THINGS BECOME MORE
UNCERTAIN BY DAY7 WITH MODELS LOWERING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
AND FROM THE NE WITH A POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR COOL FRONT. THIS
COULD HELP FOCUS MOISTURE GIVEN A BETTER EASTERLY TRAJECTORY TO THE
NORTH OF ERIKA OR ITS REMNANTS ON FRIDAY. THEREFORE GOING WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCE POPS PER POTENTIAL TROPICAL TYPE PWATS OVER THE AREA
DURING HEATING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE IN DAILY TEMPS GIVEN SUCH A HUMID/WARM
AIRMASS...SUPPORTING HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S EXCEPT
PERHAPS A BIT COOLER FRIDAY PENDING CLOUDS/SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 155 AM EDT SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA THIS MORNING...MAKING
FOR VERY LIGHT SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDFLOW ACROSS THE AREA. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS GRADUALLY INCREASING AS THIS WINDFLOW DRAWS
ATLANTIC AIR UPSLOPE INTO THE MOUNTAINS. AS SUCH...SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS HAVE DETECTED
SCATTERED CEILINGS IN THE 4KFT TO 6KFT RANGE...WHICH ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. MAY ALSO SEE THE VISIBILITY BOUNCE
UP AND DOWN IN SPOTS...DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER...AS PATCHY GROUND
FOG DEVELOPS ACROSS LOCATIONS WHERE THE SKIES CLEAR.

ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER 29/14Z WITH DAYTIME HEATING...
RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL
MAKE FOR A SCT CU FIELD DEVELOPING LATE MORNING...POSSIBLY
BECOMING BKN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING LATE AFTERNOON...WITH
CEILING BASES 4KFT TO 6KFT. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED...BUT MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA...POSSIBLY AS FAR EAST AS KBCB. EVEN THEN...SHOWER
THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SUB VFR CONDITIONS WHERE THEY
OCCUR FOR MORE THAN A FEW MINUTES. CONVECTION WILL WANE TOWARD
SUNSET.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
AS OF 130 PM EDT FRIDAY...

EXPECT A MAINLY VFR FORECAST INTO SUNDAY. MOISTURE GRADUALLY
INCREASES...WHICH WILL RAISE OUR CHANCES FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL GIVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME
FRAME. GENERALLY EXPECT THE BEST CHANCES FOR MVFR/IFR TO BE LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING DUE TO FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT FROM THE
BLUE RIDGE WEST ESPECIALLY AT KLWB/KBCB.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF/WP
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...NF/WP



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290807
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
407 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK OVER
THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS INDICATING ~1022 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER VA WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ACRS THE GULF STREAM OFF
THE GA/SC COAST. QUIET WEATHER PREVAILS UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH COMFORTABLY COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S
AND 60S. FOR TODAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH
WILL PROBABLY SEE A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF SCT/BKN AFTN CLOUD
COVER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY (BUT STILL AVERAGING OUT PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY). FOR HIGHS GENERALLY WENT NEAR TO OR JUST A DEGREE
ABOVE FRI READINGS...MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. DEW PTS
REMAIN IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. PARTLY CLOUDY AND A FEW DEGREES
WARMER TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY LOSES ITS GRIP ON THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...BUT THE FRONT THAT IS STALL OFF THE SE COAST DOES NOT GET
MUCH OF A PUSH TO COME BACK NORTH AND WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE/REMAIN
OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER  VALLEY LIFTING NORTHEAST AND INTO
THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LOW LEVELS APPEAR TOO DRY SUNDAY
FOR ANY PRECIP CHANCES...BUT A FAIRLY THICK LAYER OF MID/HIGH
CLOUD COVER IS DEPICTED BY NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM SW TO NE BY
THE AFTN. EXPECT THIS TO SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OFF WHAT THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES WOULD RISE TO IF IT WERE MOSTLY SUNNY. THUS...DESPITE
THE INCREASING THICKNESSES AND RISING 850 MB
TEMPERATURES....ACTUAL HIGHS WILL ONLY BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SAT
VALUES...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S WITH A FEW 90F READINGS POSSIBLE
IF CLOUDS HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY.

BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS PROGGED TO LIFT NE AND GET PICKED
UP BY A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH. THESE FEATURES MAY BE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS DESPITE FAIRLY WEAK LIFT
AND A LACK OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. WILL CARRY 20-30% POPS OVER FAR
SOUTHERN VA/NE NC AFTER 06Z/MON THROUGH THE REST OF MON
MORNING...AND WILL HAVE AT LEAST 20% POPS MON AFTN EXCEPT ON THE
MD ERN SHORE. A BIT MORE HUMID WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S SUN NIGHT...HIGHS MON MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90F.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY
BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A WEAK
TROUGH IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH THE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE
SERN US. THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM TS
ERIKA...OR ITS REMNANTS AT THAT TIME. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS
SHOWS THE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID-
ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED S OF THE REGION. GIVEN THIS...FORECAST POPS WILL BE BELOW
15%. BEYOND THAT THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY. IF THE MID-LEVEL HIGH
CENTER RETREATS FAR ENOUGH N SOME OF THIS MOISTURE COULD SPREAD INTO
THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...IF THE HIGH REMAINS OVERHEAD
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE REGION. 20-30% POPS HAVE BEEN
INTRODUCED MAINLY INTO FRIDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS UNCERTAINTY. WARM
AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THROUGH THE WEEK WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...WITH MID 80S AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY FORECAST HIGHS DROP INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S...WITH LOW 80S AT THE BEACHES. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. SFC WINDS CALM TO LIGHT...AOB 5 KT. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY MORE THAN SHALLOW GROUND FOG AS DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TODAY...RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND SCT AFTERNOON CU WITH DECKS 4-6K FT AGL. WINDS
GENERALLY S TO SE AOB 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY AND VFR CONDS WITH WINDS AOB 10 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE A THREAT
FOR PATCHY SHALLOW GROUND FOG EACH MORNING NEAR SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED OVER THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE RESULT IS A LIGHT ONSHORE BREEZE AOB 10 KT. WAVES GENERALLY 1-2
FT AND SEAS 2-3 FT NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT AND 3-4 FT SOUTH OF
CAPE CHARLES LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS BECOMING E-SE NORTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE BAY
AND S-NE SOUTH (AOB 10 KT). SEAS REMAIN GENERALLY UNCHANGED
TODAY...2-3 FT NORTH AND 3-4 FT SOUTH THANKS TO ONSHORE FLOW. LIGHT
ONSHORE WINDS CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-3 FT BY LATE
TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE AND SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST MID
WEEK. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTH TO WEST MON-WEDS AOB 10-15 KT. SEAS
AVERAGE 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...SAM
MARINE...SAM



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290807
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
407 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK OVER
THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS INDICATING ~1022 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER VA WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ACRS THE GULF STREAM OFF
THE GA/SC COAST. QUIET WEATHER PREVAILS UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH COMFORTABLY COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S
AND 60S. FOR TODAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH
WILL PROBABLY SEE A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF SCT/BKN AFTN CLOUD
COVER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY (BUT STILL AVERAGING OUT PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY). FOR HIGHS GENERALLY WENT NEAR TO OR JUST A DEGREE
ABOVE FRI READINGS...MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. DEW PTS
REMAIN IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. PARTLY CLOUDY AND A FEW DEGREES
WARMER TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY LOSES ITS GRIP ON THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...BUT THE FRONT THAT IS STALL OFF THE SE COAST DOES NOT GET
MUCH OF A PUSH TO COME BACK NORTH AND WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE/REMAIN
OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER  VALLEY LIFTING NORTHEAST AND INTO
THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LOW LEVELS APPEAR TOO DRY SUNDAY
FOR ANY PRECIP CHANCES...BUT A FAIRLY THICK LAYER OF MID/HIGH
CLOUD COVER IS DEPICTED BY NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM SW TO NE BY
THE AFTN. EXPECT THIS TO SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OFF WHAT THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES WOULD RISE TO IF IT WERE MOSTLY SUNNY. THUS...DESPITE
THE INCREASING THICKNESSES AND RISING 850 MB
TEMPERATURES....ACTUAL HIGHS WILL ONLY BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SAT
VALUES...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S WITH A FEW 90F READINGS POSSIBLE
IF CLOUDS HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY.

BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS PROGGED TO LIFT NE AND GET PICKED
UP BY A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH. THESE FEATURES MAY BE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS DESPITE FAIRLY WEAK LIFT
AND A LACK OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. WILL CARRY 20-30% POPS OVER FAR
SOUTHERN VA/NE NC AFTER 06Z/MON THROUGH THE REST OF MON
MORNING...AND WILL HAVE AT LEAST 20% POPS MON AFTN EXCEPT ON THE
MD ERN SHORE. A BIT MORE HUMID WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S SUN NIGHT...HIGHS MON MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90F.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY
BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A WEAK
TROUGH IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH THE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE
SERN US. THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM TS
ERIKA...OR ITS REMNANTS AT THAT TIME. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS
SHOWS THE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID-
ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED S OF THE REGION. GIVEN THIS...FORECAST POPS WILL BE BELOW
15%. BEYOND THAT THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY. IF THE MID-LEVEL HIGH
CENTER RETREATS FAR ENOUGH N SOME OF THIS MOISTURE COULD SPREAD INTO
THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...IF THE HIGH REMAINS OVERHEAD
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE REGION. 20-30% POPS HAVE BEEN
INTRODUCED MAINLY INTO FRIDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS UNCERTAINTY. WARM
AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THROUGH THE WEEK WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...WITH MID 80S AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY FORECAST HIGHS DROP INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S...WITH LOW 80S AT THE BEACHES. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. SFC WINDS CALM TO LIGHT...AOB 5 KT. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY MORE THAN SHALLOW GROUND FOG AS DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TODAY...RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND SCT AFTERNOON CU WITH DECKS 4-6K FT AGL. WINDS
GENERALLY S TO SE AOB 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY AND VFR CONDS WITH WINDS AOB 10 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE A THREAT
FOR PATCHY SHALLOW GROUND FOG EACH MORNING NEAR SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED OVER THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE RESULT IS A LIGHT ONSHORE BREEZE AOB 10 KT. WAVES GENERALLY 1-2
FT AND SEAS 2-3 FT NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT AND 3-4 FT SOUTH OF
CAPE CHARLES LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS BECOMING E-SE NORTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE BAY
AND S-NE SOUTH (AOB 10 KT). SEAS REMAIN GENERALLY UNCHANGED
TODAY...2-3 FT NORTH AND 3-4 FT SOUTH THANKS TO ONSHORE FLOW. LIGHT
ONSHORE WINDS CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-3 FT BY LATE
TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE AND SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST MID
WEEK. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTH TO WEST MON-WEDS AOB 10-15 KT. SEAS
AVERAGE 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...SAM
MARINE...SAM




000
FXUS61 KLWX 290731
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
331 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN SLIDES
OFFSHORE THROUGH THE END OF THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIPRES ATOP THE MID ATLC ATTM. IN SPITE OF THIS...A THIN MOIST
LYR AT 5K FT SENDING SOME BKN CLDS ACRS THE CWFA. AS A RESULT...
TEMPS RUNNING A LTL WARMER THAN PROGGED...AND FOG IS FAR LESS.
SUSPECT WE/LL SEE SOME CLRG PRIOR TO DAWN...AND HV KEPT THE PSBLTY
OF A PINCH OF FOG IN THE VLYS OF THE PIEDMONT...BUT DONT BELIEVE
IT/LL BE ALL THAT MUCH.

THE DAYLIGHT HRS TDA WL BE VERY SIMLR TO THE PRVS SVRL DAYS...ASIDE
FM SUBTLE WAA/DEWPT ADVCTN. WHILE NOT UNSTBL...AMS MAY BE ABLE TO
SUPPORT A CPL SHRA /TSRA?/ WITH THE SUPPORT OF TRRN CIRCULATIONS IN
THE APLCNS. WL BE FOCUSING ON THE HIER PEAKS /HIGHLAND-PENDLTN
CNTYS/ TIL SUNSET.

DIURNAL CU SHUD BE DSPTG DURING THE EVNG HRS...AND STILL BELIEVE
THAT THE OVNGT HRS WL BE MAINLY CLR. SINCE DEWPTS WL BUMP UP INTO
THE LWR 60S AND WINDS WL ONCE AGN DCPL...STAGE SHUD BE SLGTLY BETTER
FOR PATCHY FOG. AM STICKING W/ CLIMO...FAVORING THE PIEDMONT/SHEN
VLY/PTMC HIGHLANDS.

PTTN THUS FAR HAS FAVORED A MAV/EURO MAXT OUTPUT...AND WL EMPLOY
THAT SOLN WHILE MAINTAINING A FRACTION OF CONTINUITY FM PREV FCST.
MIN-T FCST WL BE A BLEND OF A MORE DIVERSE GDNC MEMBERSHIP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
H5 HGTS LESS ACRS THE GRTLKS/OHVLY/MID MS VLY AS A CUTOFF LOW
MEADERS NORTH. THIS WEAKNESS WL SUPPORT GREATER LAPSE RATES AND THUS
A BIT MORE INSTBY THAN PRVS DAYS. HARD TO TELL IF THERE WL BE A
CDFNT W/IN THIS ZONE OR NOT. EVEN IF THERE IS...IT WONT MAKE IT TO
THE CWFA. INSTEAD...GRDLY XPCT MORE WARMTH AND HUMIDITY TO
INFILTRATE AREA. THERMAL CHGS SUBTLE...AND THAT IS REFLECTED IN FCST
GRIDS. MANY SITES ALONG I-95 CRRDR MAY REACH 90F SUN AFTN...IN SPITE
OF MORE CLDCVR.

THE LARGER CHG WL BE TO THE POPS. SINCE THERE WL BE MORE SUPPORT FOR
RANDOM DIURNAL CNVCTN...HV HIER POPS FCSTD...SPCLY ACRS THE RDGS. HV
GNLY KEPT THIS THREAT W OF THE BLURDG /CHC POPS/...ALTHO SKIES WL BE
PTSUN AT BEST ACRS ENTIRE ARE DURING A PORTION OF THE AFTN HRS. RDGG
PARKED SE OF CWFA SHUD PREVENT STORMS FM ADVCG OUT OF THE MTNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL TEND TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN DURING THE LONG TERM...WITH DAY-TO-DAY WEATHER INFLUENCED BY
ITS POSITIONING AND MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH/NEAR
THE REGION. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES AOA
CLIMO NORMS...HUMIDITY WONT BE BE TOO HIGH...AND BENEFICIAL RAIN
CHANCES APPEAR LOW.

MON...MID/UPPER VORT MAX OVER GULF STATES WILL RIDE ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF RIDGE OVER ATLANTIC AND IMPACT MID-ATLANTIC EARLY IN
THE DAY. IT GETS SHEARED APART AND WEAKENS AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO
NORTHERN STREAM. TIMING OF FEATURE AND POOR LAPSE RATES...RESULTING
FROM NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILES ABOVE THE LCL...WILL LIKELY
LIMIT ACTIVITY TO MAINLY SHOWERS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH
PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUE/WED...POOR LAPSE RATES CONTINUE...WHICH WILL KEEP ISOLATED
DIURNAL CONVECTION CONFINED MAINLY TO HIGHER TERRAIN AND OUR
SOUTHWEST...WHERE TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS PROVIDE ADDED LIFT AND
SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE RESIDES.

THU/FRI...WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO
BETTER...THOUGH STILL LOW...CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS
ENTIRE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDS WL PREVAIL OVER THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TAF PD. FOG PSBL
CHO BEFORE DAWN...AND HV A CPL HRS OF MVFR TO ACCT FOR IT. CANT
COMPLETE RULE OUT MRB TOO...BUT CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS RATHER LOW.
NEED TO GET RID OF CURRENT CLDCVR. BELIEVE THAT CAN HAPPEN.

LGT SLY FLOW TAFTN-EVE W/ DIURNAL CU BASED NEAR 050. CIGS SHUD HOLD
ACRS THE MTNS. THERE MAY BE A STRAY STORM...BUT THAT SHUD STAY CLR
OF THE TERMINALS.

ANTHR ROUND OF POTL FOG PREDAWN SUN. AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS
LACKING. WUD KEEP IT AWAY FM THE HUBS THO.

DIURNAL CU WL DVLP ONCE AGN SUN AFTN-EVE...W/ SLGTLY GREATER CVRG OF
SHRA/TSRA IN THE MTNS. MRB MAY BE CLIPPED BY ONE OF THESE. NO IMPACT
XPCTD FOR BALT-WASH HUBS.

OUTSIDE OF PATCHY PREDAWN FOG...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WITH ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAINLY CONFINED TO
APPALACHIANS AND AWAY FROM MOST TERMINALS...EXCEPT CHO. WHILE
LOW...CHANCE FOR BRIEF SUB-VFR AT ALL TERMINALS OCCURS WEDNESDAY
WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY FLOW ON THE WATERS ELY THIS MRNG...MOSTLY AOB 10 KT. SLY FLOW WL
CONT THRU THE WKND...ALTHO AN ONSHORE COMPONENT LKLY WL DVLP EACH
AFTN. SIMILARLY...SLY CHANNELING WL LKLY INCR OVNGT. AT THIS
POINT...WL KEEP WINDS UNDER SCA THRESHOLDS.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE BY MIDWEEK OVER THE
WATERS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...MSE/HTS
MARINE...MSE/HTS



000
FXUS61 KRNK 290559
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
159 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND
REMAIN ABOUT OVERHEAD INTO SATURDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...RESULTING
IN MORE DIURNAL NATURE SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1137 PM EDT FRIDAY...

OUTER RING OF HIGH CLOUDS FROM WHAT WAS LEFT OF DANNY STREAMING
ACROSS THE SRN CWA WITH MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT ALONG/NORTH FROM LYH TO
ROA.

FORECAST OVERNIGHT FAVORS A MIX OF CLOUDS AND STARS...WITH SOME
VALLEY FOG FORMING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS
NIGHTS AS DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. ADJUSTED
SOME TEMPS UP. LOWS BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH SOME URBAN
AREAS IN THE LOWER 60S.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE DRIVING OUR WEATHER INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC SHORT WAVE ENERGY
SLIDING BY WELL TO OUR NORTH. SATURDAY WILL HAVE A SIMILAR FLAVOR
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEST OF THE RIDGE. HIGHS SATURDAY
WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S EAST TO UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT FRIDAY...

RIDGING BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
GIVING WAY TO AN UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A PLUME OF DEEPER
MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TO BE PULLED NORTHWARD ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY AIDING LIFT ALONG WITH
HEATING.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BEST FOCUS IN AN ARC ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH BETTER INSTABILITY...DIFFLUENCE AND THETA-E RIGHT ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES ESPECIALLY LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. HOWEVER
THIS AGAIN WITHIN AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ENHANCED VIA WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SO EXPECTING MORE SCATTERED NATURE
COVERAGE AT THIS POINT. THUS HOLDING OFF ON GOING MUCH MORE THAN MID
CHANCE POPS...MAINLY BLUE RIDGE WEST FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO LATE
MONDAY...WITH HIGHEST ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A MOIST/WEAKLY VEERED PROFILE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE A BIT LESS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...APPEARS
SHOWERS MORE ISOLATED SO ONLY KEEPING A 20ISH POP OUT EAST FOR NOW.

WARMING 85H TEMPS SUPPORT RATHER WARM TEMPS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHEN TEMPS MAY GET CLOSE TO 90 PIEDMONT PENDING
DEGREE OF CLOUDS. OTHERWISE BECOMING MORE MUGGY GIVEN INCREASING
DEWPOINTS...AND HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S WITH SOME 70S POSSIBLE FAR WEST
ESPECIALLY IF SHOWERS ARE MORE WIDESPREAD SUNDAY/MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM EDT FRIDAY...

OVERALL PERSISTENCE FORECAST AT LEAST EARLY ON AS UPPER RIDGING
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING WAVE ALOFT AND
IN INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WELL NORTH OF ERIKA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN TREND OF DAILY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE/EXPANSE FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY GIVEN BETTER PWATS/MOISTURE AND SLIGHT COOLING
ALOFT. HOWEVER THINK LOW/MEDIUM CHANCE POPS CONFINED MAINLY ALONG/WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE PER OROGRAPHICS...AND MORE ISOLATED ELSEWHERE
ESPECIALLY GIVEN MOISTURE OVER TOP A LINGERING SURFACE RIDGE. THUS
FOLLOWED CLOSER TO TRENDS FROM WPC WITH A GRADUAL BOOST IN POPS EACH
DAY BUT LITTLE DURING THE OVERNIGHTS INTO THURSDAY. THINGS BECOME MORE
UNCERTAIN BY DAY7 WITH MODELS LOWERING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
AND FROM THE NE WITH A POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR COOL FRONT. THIS
COULD HELP FOCUS MOISTURE GIVEN A BETTER EASTERLY TRAJECTORY TO THE
NORTH OF ERIKA OR ITS REMNANTS ON FRIDAY. THEREFORE GOING WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCE POPS PER POTENTIAL TROPICAL TYPE PWATS OVER THE AREA
DURING HEATING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE IN DAILY TEMPS GIVEN SUCH A HUMID/WARM
AIRMASS...SUPPORTING HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S EXCEPT
PERHAPS A BIT COOLER FRIDAY PENDING CLOUDS/SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 155 AM EDT SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA THIS MORNING...MAKING
FOR VERY LIGHT SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDFLOW ACROSS THE AREA. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS GRADUALLY INCREASING AS THIS WINDFLOW DRAWS
ATLANTIC AIR UPSLOPE INTO THE MOUNTAINS. AS SUCH...SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS HAVE DETECTED
SCATTERED CEILINGS IN THE 4KFT TO 6KFT RANGE...WHICH ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. MAY ALSO SEE THE VISIBILITY BOUNCE
UP AND DOWN IN SPOTS...DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER...AS PATCHY GROUND
FOG DEVELOPS ACROSS LOCATIONS WHERE THE SKIES CLEAR.

ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER 29/14Z WITH DAYTIME HEATING...
RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL
MAKE FOR A SCT CU FIELD DEVELOPING LATE MORNING...POSSIBLY
BECOMING BKN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING LATE AFTERNOON...WITH
CEILING BASES 4KFT TO 6KFT. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED...BUT MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA...POSSIBLY AS FAR EAST AS KBCB. EVEN THEN...SHOWER
THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SUB VFR CONDITIONS WHERE THEY
OCCUR FOR MORE THAN A FEW MINUTES. CONVECTION WILL WANE TOWARD
SUNSET.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
AS OF 130 PM EDT FRIDAY...

EXPECT A MAINLY VFR FORECAST INTO SUNDAY. MOISTURE GRADUALLY
INCREASES...WHICH WILL RAISE OUR CHANCES FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL GIVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME
FRAME. GENERALLY EXPECT THE BEST CHANCES FOR MVFR/IFR TO BE LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING DUE TO FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT FROM THE
BLUE RIDGE WEST ESPECIALLY AT KLWB/KBCB.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...MBS/WP
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...NF/WP



000
FXUS61 KRNK 290559
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
159 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND
REMAIN ABOUT OVERHEAD INTO SATURDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...RESULTING
IN MORE DIURNAL NATURE SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1137 PM EDT FRIDAY...

OUTER RING OF HIGH CLOUDS FROM WHAT WAS LEFT OF DANNY STREAMING
ACROSS THE SRN CWA WITH MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT ALONG/NORTH FROM LYH TO
ROA.

FORECAST OVERNIGHT FAVORS A MIX OF CLOUDS AND STARS...WITH SOME
VALLEY FOG FORMING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS
NIGHTS AS DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. ADJUSTED
SOME TEMPS UP. LOWS BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH SOME URBAN
AREAS IN THE LOWER 60S.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE DRIVING OUR WEATHER INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC SHORT WAVE ENERGY
SLIDING BY WELL TO OUR NORTH. SATURDAY WILL HAVE A SIMILAR FLAVOR
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEST OF THE RIDGE. HIGHS SATURDAY
WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S EAST TO UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT FRIDAY...

RIDGING BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
GIVING WAY TO AN UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A PLUME OF DEEPER
MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TO BE PULLED NORTHWARD ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY AIDING LIFT ALONG WITH
HEATING.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BEST FOCUS IN AN ARC ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH BETTER INSTABILITY...DIFFLUENCE AND THETA-E RIGHT ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES ESPECIALLY LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. HOWEVER
THIS AGAIN WITHIN AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ENHANCED VIA WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SO EXPECTING MORE SCATTERED NATURE
COVERAGE AT THIS POINT. THUS HOLDING OFF ON GOING MUCH MORE THAN MID
CHANCE POPS...MAINLY BLUE RIDGE WEST FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO LATE
MONDAY...WITH HIGHEST ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A MOIST/WEAKLY VEERED PROFILE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE A BIT LESS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...APPEARS
SHOWERS MORE ISOLATED SO ONLY KEEPING A 20ISH POP OUT EAST FOR NOW.

WARMING 85H TEMPS SUPPORT RATHER WARM TEMPS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHEN TEMPS MAY GET CLOSE TO 90 PIEDMONT PENDING
DEGREE OF CLOUDS. OTHERWISE BECOMING MORE MUGGY GIVEN INCREASING
DEWPOINTS...AND HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S WITH SOME 70S POSSIBLE FAR WEST
ESPECIALLY IF SHOWERS ARE MORE WIDESPREAD SUNDAY/MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM EDT FRIDAY...

OVERALL PERSISTENCE FORECAST AT LEAST EARLY ON AS UPPER RIDGING
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING WAVE ALOFT AND
IN INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WELL NORTH OF ERIKA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN TREND OF DAILY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE/EXPANSE FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY GIVEN BETTER PWATS/MOISTURE AND SLIGHT COOLING
ALOFT. HOWEVER THINK LOW/MEDIUM CHANCE POPS CONFINED MAINLY ALONG/WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE PER OROGRAPHICS...AND MORE ISOLATED ELSEWHERE
ESPECIALLY GIVEN MOISTURE OVER TOP A LINGERING SURFACE RIDGE. THUS
FOLLOWED CLOSER TO TRENDS FROM WPC WITH A GRADUAL BOOST IN POPS EACH
DAY BUT LITTLE DURING THE OVERNIGHTS INTO THURSDAY. THINGS BECOME MORE
UNCERTAIN BY DAY7 WITH MODELS LOWERING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
AND FROM THE NE WITH A POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR COOL FRONT. THIS
COULD HELP FOCUS MOISTURE GIVEN A BETTER EASTERLY TRAJECTORY TO THE
NORTH OF ERIKA OR ITS REMNANTS ON FRIDAY. THEREFORE GOING WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCE POPS PER POTENTIAL TROPICAL TYPE PWATS OVER THE AREA
DURING HEATING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE IN DAILY TEMPS GIVEN SUCH A HUMID/WARM
AIRMASS...SUPPORTING HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S EXCEPT
PERHAPS A BIT COOLER FRIDAY PENDING CLOUDS/SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 155 AM EDT SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA THIS MORNING...MAKING
FOR VERY LIGHT SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDFLOW ACROSS THE AREA. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS GRADUALLY INCREASING AS THIS WINDFLOW DRAWS
ATLANTIC AIR UPSLOPE INTO THE MOUNTAINS. AS SUCH...SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS HAVE DETECTED
SCATTERED CEILINGS IN THE 4KFT TO 6KFT RANGE...WHICH ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. MAY ALSO SEE THE VISIBILITY BOUNCE
UP AND DOWN IN SPOTS...DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER...AS PATCHY GROUND
FOG DEVELOPS ACROSS LOCATIONS WHERE THE SKIES CLEAR.

ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER 29/14Z WITH DAYTIME HEATING...
RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL
MAKE FOR A SCT CU FIELD DEVELOPING LATE MORNING...POSSIBLY
BECOMING BKN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING LATE AFTERNOON...WITH
CEILING BASES 4KFT TO 6KFT. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED...BUT MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA...POSSIBLY AS FAR EAST AS KBCB. EVEN THEN...SHOWER
THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SUB VFR CONDITIONS WHERE THEY
OCCUR FOR MORE THAN A FEW MINUTES. CONVECTION WILL WANE TOWARD
SUNSET.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
AS OF 130 PM EDT FRIDAY...

EXPECT A MAINLY VFR FORECAST INTO SUNDAY. MOISTURE GRADUALLY
INCREASES...WHICH WILL RAISE OUR CHANCES FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL GIVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME
FRAME. GENERALLY EXPECT THE BEST CHANCES FOR MVFR/IFR TO BE LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING DUE TO FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT FROM THE
BLUE RIDGE WEST ESPECIALLY AT KLWB/KBCB.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...MBS/WP
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...NF/WP




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290557
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
157 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
VERY QUIET WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE....CENTERED OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES LATE THIS EVENING...IS PROVIDING DRY AND
SEASONABLE WEATHER. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY SATURDAY EVENING...BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE QUIET WEATHER. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE GOOD AGAIN
OVERNIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. BASED ON LAST NIGHT...HAVE
STAYED UNDER GUIDANCE FOR LOWS WITH READINGS AGAIN REACHING THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

THE MODELS SHOW SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TRYING TO SLIDE OVER THE
AREA ON SATURDAY SO HAVE BUMPED UP THE SKY COVER A BIT...BUT
EXPECT THAT THIS CIRRUS WILL BE PRETTY THIN SO SHOULD STILL SEE
LOTS OF SUN. FOR HIGHS GENERALLY WENT NEAR TO OR JUST A DEGREE
ABOVE TODAYS HIGHS...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY LOSES ITS GRIP ON THE REGIONS
WEATHER ON SUNDAY...BUT THE FRONT THAT IS STALL OFF THE SE COAST
DOES NOT GET MUCH OF A PUSH TO COME BACK NORTH AND SLOWLY
DISSIPATES. HOWEVER...THE MODELS DO SHOW AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LIFTING NORTHEAST AND
INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS FEATURE MAY BE ENOUGH
TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA
WERE THE MOISTURE IS MORE PLENTIFUL.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...CONTINUES THE TREND OF THE DRY WEATHER WITH
LOTS OF CLEAR SKY. BUT WITH SOME CIRRUS AROUND...STAYED CLOSE TO
THE MOS GUIDANCE AS COOLING CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE AS GOOD AS THE
LAST FEW NIGHTS. ON SUNDAY...KEPT THE WEATHER DRY BUT WITH THE
FLOW BEGINNING TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY...SHOULD SEE HUMIDITY BEGIN
TO INCREASE WITH HIGHS GETTING BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90
DEGREES.

WITH THE UPPER LOW BEGINNING TO APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...SHOULD SEE THE CLOUDS THICKEN A LITTLE AND THE CHANCE FOR
AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. FOR NOW
HAVE HELD THE CHANCES TO THE SE OF THE PATH OF THE SHORTWAVE...BUT
IF THE MOISTURE IS A LITTLE MORE ABUNDANT COULD SEE SHOWERS REACH
ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE I-85 CORRIDOR. FOR TEMPERATURES...SHOULD
SEE A MILDER NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT ...BUT HELD TEMPERATURES DOWN A
FEW DEGREES FROM SUNDAYS HIGHS ON MONDAY WITH READINGS MORE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY
BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A WEAK
TROUGH IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH THE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE
SERN US. THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM TS
ERIKA...OR ITS REMNANTS AT THAT TIME. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS
SHOWS THE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID-
ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED S OF THE REGION. GIVEN THIS...FORECAST POPS WILL BE BELOW
15%. BEYOND THAT THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY. IF THE MID-LEVEL HIGH
CENTER RETREATS FAR ENOUGH N SOME OF THIS MOISTURE COULD SPREAD INTO
THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...IF THE HIGH REMAINS OVERHEAD
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE REGION. 20-30% POPS HAVE BEEN
INTRODUCED MAINLY INTO FRIDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS UNCERTAINTY. WARM
AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THROUGH THE WEEK WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...WITH MID 80S AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY FORECAST HIGHS DROP INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S...WITH LOW 80S AT THE BEACHES. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. SFC WINDS CALM TO LIGHT...AOB 5 KT. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY MORE THAN SHALLOW GROUND FOG AS DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TODAY...RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND SCT AFTERNOON CU WITH DECKS 4-6K FT AGL. WINDS
GENERALLY S TO SE AOB 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY AND VFR CONDS WITH WINDS AOB 10 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE A THREAT
FOR PATCHY SHALLOW GROUND FOG EACH MORNING NEAR SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THIS IS PRODUCING A N-NE WIND ACROSS THE AREA...WITH SPEEDS OF 5-
10KT (10-15KT S OF THE VA/NC BORDER). THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE SATURDAY. THE WIND
GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO E-SE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON (ALTHOUGH NE WILL
LIKELY PERSIST S OF THE VA/NC BORDER) WITH SPEEDS REMAINING AOB 10-
15KT. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY...BEFORE THE FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMES SOUTHERLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH WIND SPEEDS NO HIGHER THAN 10-15KT. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED
AT 3-4FT OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE...SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 2-3FT...WITH 1-2 FT WAVES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS
NEAR TERM...ESS/JDM
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...SAM
MARINE...AJZ



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290557
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
157 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
VERY QUIET WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE....CENTERED OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES LATE THIS EVENING...IS PROVIDING DRY AND
SEASONABLE WEATHER. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY SATURDAY EVENING...BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE QUIET WEATHER. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE GOOD AGAIN
OVERNIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. BASED ON LAST NIGHT...HAVE
STAYED UNDER GUIDANCE FOR LOWS WITH READINGS AGAIN REACHING THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

THE MODELS SHOW SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TRYING TO SLIDE OVER THE
AREA ON SATURDAY SO HAVE BUMPED UP THE SKY COVER A BIT...BUT
EXPECT THAT THIS CIRRUS WILL BE PRETTY THIN SO SHOULD STILL SEE
LOTS OF SUN. FOR HIGHS GENERALLY WENT NEAR TO OR JUST A DEGREE
ABOVE TODAYS HIGHS...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY LOSES ITS GRIP ON THE REGIONS
WEATHER ON SUNDAY...BUT THE FRONT THAT IS STALL OFF THE SE COAST
DOES NOT GET MUCH OF A PUSH TO COME BACK NORTH AND SLOWLY
DISSIPATES. HOWEVER...THE MODELS DO SHOW AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LIFTING NORTHEAST AND
INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS FEATURE MAY BE ENOUGH
TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA
WERE THE MOISTURE IS MORE PLENTIFUL.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...CONTINUES THE TREND OF THE DRY WEATHER WITH
LOTS OF CLEAR SKY. BUT WITH SOME CIRRUS AROUND...STAYED CLOSE TO
THE MOS GUIDANCE AS COOLING CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE AS GOOD AS THE
LAST FEW NIGHTS. ON SUNDAY...KEPT THE WEATHER DRY BUT WITH THE
FLOW BEGINNING TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY...SHOULD SEE HUMIDITY BEGIN
TO INCREASE WITH HIGHS GETTING BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90
DEGREES.

WITH THE UPPER LOW BEGINNING TO APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...SHOULD SEE THE CLOUDS THICKEN A LITTLE AND THE CHANCE FOR
AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. FOR NOW
HAVE HELD THE CHANCES TO THE SE OF THE PATH OF THE SHORTWAVE...BUT
IF THE MOISTURE IS A LITTLE MORE ABUNDANT COULD SEE SHOWERS REACH
ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE I-85 CORRIDOR. FOR TEMPERATURES...SHOULD
SEE A MILDER NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT ...BUT HELD TEMPERATURES DOWN A
FEW DEGREES FROM SUNDAYS HIGHS ON MONDAY WITH READINGS MORE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY
BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A WEAK
TROUGH IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH THE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE
SERN US. THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM TS
ERIKA...OR ITS REMNANTS AT THAT TIME. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS
SHOWS THE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID-
ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED S OF THE REGION. GIVEN THIS...FORECAST POPS WILL BE BELOW
15%. BEYOND THAT THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY. IF THE MID-LEVEL HIGH
CENTER RETREATS FAR ENOUGH N SOME OF THIS MOISTURE COULD SPREAD INTO
THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...IF THE HIGH REMAINS OVERHEAD
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE REGION. 20-30% POPS HAVE BEEN
INTRODUCED MAINLY INTO FRIDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS UNCERTAINTY. WARM
AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THROUGH THE WEEK WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...WITH MID 80S AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY FORECAST HIGHS DROP INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S...WITH LOW 80S AT THE BEACHES. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. SFC WINDS CALM TO LIGHT...AOB 5 KT. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY MORE THAN SHALLOW GROUND FOG AS DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TODAY...RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND SCT AFTERNOON CU WITH DECKS 4-6K FT AGL. WINDS
GENERALLY S TO SE AOB 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY AND VFR CONDS WITH WINDS AOB 10 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE A THREAT
FOR PATCHY SHALLOW GROUND FOG EACH MORNING NEAR SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THIS IS PRODUCING A N-NE WIND ACROSS THE AREA...WITH SPEEDS OF 5-
10KT (10-15KT S OF THE VA/NC BORDER). THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE SATURDAY. THE WIND
GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO E-SE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON (ALTHOUGH NE WILL
LIKELY PERSIST S OF THE VA/NC BORDER) WITH SPEEDS REMAINING AOB 10-
15KT. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY...BEFORE THE FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMES SOUTHERLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH WIND SPEEDS NO HIGHER THAN 10-15KT. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED
AT 3-4FT OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE...SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 2-3FT...WITH 1-2 FT WAVES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS
NEAR TERM...ESS/JDM
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...SAM
MARINE...AJZ




000
FXUS61 KRNK 290349
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1149 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND
REMAIN ABOUT OVERHEAD INTO SATURDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...RESULTING
IN MORE DIURNAL NATURE SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1137 PM EDT FRIDAY...

OUTER RING OF HIGH CLOUDS FROM WHAT WAS LEFT OF DANNY STREAMING
ACROSS THE SRN CWA WITH MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT ALONG/NORTH FROM LYH TO
ROA.

FORECAST OVERNIGHT FAVORS A MIX OF CLOUDS AND STARS...WITH SOME
VALLEY FOG FORMING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS
NIGHTS AS DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. ADJUSTED
SOME TEMPS UP. LOWS BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH SOME URBAN
AREAS IN THE LOWER 60S.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE DRIVING OUR WEATHER INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC SHORT WAVE ENERGY
SLIDING BY WELL TO OUR NORTH. SATURDAY WILL HAVE A SIMILAR FLAVOR
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEST OF THE RIDGE. HIGHS SATURDAY
WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S EAST TO UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT FRIDAY...

RIDGING BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
GIVING WAY TO AN UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A PLUME OF DEEPER
MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TO BE PULLED NORTHWARD ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY AIDING LIFT ALONG WITH
HEATING.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BEST FOCUS IN AN ARC ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH BETTER INSTABILITY...DIFFLUENCE AND THETA-E RIGHT ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES ESPECIALLY LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. HOWEVER
THIS AGAIN WITHIN AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ENHANCED VIA WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SO EXPECTING MORE SCATTERED NATURE
COVERAGE AT THIS POINT. THUS HOLDING OFF ON GOING MUCH MORE THAN MID
CHANCE POPS...MAINLY BLUE RIDGE WEST FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO LATE
MONDAY...WITH HIGHEST ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A MOIST/WEAKLY VEERED PROFILE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE A BIT LESS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...APPEARS
SHOWERS MORE ISOLATED SO ONLY KEEPING A 20ISH POP OUT EAST FOR NOW.

WARMING 85H TEMPS SUPPORT RATHER WARM TEMPS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHEN TEMPS MAY GET CLOSE TO 90 PIEDMONT PENDING
DEGREE OF CLOUDS. OTHERWISE BECOMING MORE MUGGY GIVEN INCREASING
DEWPOINTS...AND HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S WITH SOME 70S POSSIBLE FAR WEST
ESPECIALLY IF SHOWERS ARE MORE WIDESPREAD SUNDAY/MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM EDT FRIDAY...

OVERALL PERSISTENCE FORECAST AT LEAST EARLY ON AS UPPER RIDGING
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING WAVE ALOFT AND
IN INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WELL NORTH OF ERIKA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN TREND OF DAILY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE/EXPANSE FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY GIVEN BETTER PWATS/MOISTURE AND SLIGHT COOLING
ALOFT. HOWEVER THINK LOW/MEDIUM CHANCE POPS CONFINED MAINLY ALONG/WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE PER OROGRAPHICS...AND MORE ISOLATED ELSEWHERE
ESPECIALLY GIVEN MOISTURE OVER TOP A LINGERING SURFACE RIDGE. THUS
FOLLOWED CLOSER TO TRENDS FROM WPC WITH A GRADUAL BOOST IN POPS EACH
DAY BUT LITTLE DURING THE OVERNIGHTS INTO THURSDAY. THINGS BECOME MORE
UNCERTAIN BY DAY7 WITH MODELS LOWERING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
AND FROM THE NE WITH A POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR COOL FRONT. THIS
COULD HELP FOCUS MOISTURE GIVEN A BETTER EASTERLY TRAJECTORY TO THE
NORTH OF ERIKA OR ITS REMNANTS ON FRIDAY. THEREFORE GOING WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCE POPS PER POTENTIAL TROPICAL TYPE PWATS OVER THE AREA
DURING HEATING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE IN DAILY TEMPS GIVEN SUCH A HUMID/WARM
AIRMASS...SUPPORTING HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S EXCEPT
PERHAPS A BIT COOLER FRIDAY PENDING CLOUDS/SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 720 PM EDT FRIDAY...

REALLY NOT SEEING MUCH HINDRANCE TO AVIATION THIS PERIOD. WILL SEE
THE SCT/BKN CU EARLY THIS EVENING FLATTEN OUT TO STRATOCU
OVERNIGHT AND MAY KEEP BLF/LWB/BCB SCT V BKN BUT AT 4-6KFT.

LOOKING AT THE MINIMAL THREAT OF GROUND FOG AT BCB/LWB SO KEPT THE
TEMPO GROUPS IN FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL LEAD
TO A PERSISTENCE FORECAST. ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF AFTER DAYBREAK
TOMORROW AND EXPECT SCT/V/BKN VFR CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE BUT NOT MUCH
COVERAGE TO HAVE IN THE TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
AS OF 130 PM EDT FRIDAY...

EXPECT A MAINLY VFR FORECAST INTO SUNDAY. MOISTURE GRADUALLY
INCREASES...WHICH WILL RAISE OUR CHANCES FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL GIVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME
FRAME. GENERALLY EXPECT THE BEST CHANCES FOR MVFR/IFR TO BE LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING DUE TO FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT FROM THE
BLUE RIDGE WEST ESPECIALLY AT KLWB/KBCB.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...MBS/WP
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...MBS/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 290349
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1149 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND
REMAIN ABOUT OVERHEAD INTO SATURDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...RESULTING
IN MORE DIURNAL NATURE SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1137 PM EDT FRIDAY...

OUTER RING OF HIGH CLOUDS FROM WHAT WAS LEFT OF DANNY STREAMING
ACROSS THE SRN CWA WITH MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT ALONG/NORTH FROM LYH TO
ROA.

FORECAST OVERNIGHT FAVORS A MIX OF CLOUDS AND STARS...WITH SOME
VALLEY FOG FORMING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS
NIGHTS AS DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. ADJUSTED
SOME TEMPS UP. LOWS BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH SOME URBAN
AREAS IN THE LOWER 60S.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE DRIVING OUR WEATHER INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC SHORT WAVE ENERGY
SLIDING BY WELL TO OUR NORTH. SATURDAY WILL HAVE A SIMILAR FLAVOR
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEST OF THE RIDGE. HIGHS SATURDAY
WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S EAST TO UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT FRIDAY...

RIDGING BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
GIVING WAY TO AN UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A PLUME OF DEEPER
MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TO BE PULLED NORTHWARD ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY AIDING LIFT ALONG WITH
HEATING.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BEST FOCUS IN AN ARC ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH BETTER INSTABILITY...DIFFLUENCE AND THETA-E RIGHT ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES ESPECIALLY LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. HOWEVER
THIS AGAIN WITHIN AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ENHANCED VIA WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SO EXPECTING MORE SCATTERED NATURE
COVERAGE AT THIS POINT. THUS HOLDING OFF ON GOING MUCH MORE THAN MID
CHANCE POPS...MAINLY BLUE RIDGE WEST FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO LATE
MONDAY...WITH HIGHEST ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A MOIST/WEAKLY VEERED PROFILE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE A BIT LESS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...APPEARS
SHOWERS MORE ISOLATED SO ONLY KEEPING A 20ISH POP OUT EAST FOR NOW.

WARMING 85H TEMPS SUPPORT RATHER WARM TEMPS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHEN TEMPS MAY GET CLOSE TO 90 PIEDMONT PENDING
DEGREE OF CLOUDS. OTHERWISE BECOMING MORE MUGGY GIVEN INCREASING
DEWPOINTS...AND HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S WITH SOME 70S POSSIBLE FAR WEST
ESPECIALLY IF SHOWERS ARE MORE WIDESPREAD SUNDAY/MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM EDT FRIDAY...

OVERALL PERSISTENCE FORECAST AT LEAST EARLY ON AS UPPER RIDGING
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING WAVE ALOFT AND
IN INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WELL NORTH OF ERIKA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN TREND OF DAILY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE/EXPANSE FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY GIVEN BETTER PWATS/MOISTURE AND SLIGHT COOLING
ALOFT. HOWEVER THINK LOW/MEDIUM CHANCE POPS CONFINED MAINLY ALONG/WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE PER OROGRAPHICS...AND MORE ISOLATED ELSEWHERE
ESPECIALLY GIVEN MOISTURE OVER TOP A LINGERING SURFACE RIDGE. THUS
FOLLOWED CLOSER TO TRENDS FROM WPC WITH A GRADUAL BOOST IN POPS EACH
DAY BUT LITTLE DURING THE OVERNIGHTS INTO THURSDAY. THINGS BECOME MORE
UNCERTAIN BY DAY7 WITH MODELS LOWERING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
AND FROM THE NE WITH A POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR COOL FRONT. THIS
COULD HELP FOCUS MOISTURE GIVEN A BETTER EASTERLY TRAJECTORY TO THE
NORTH OF ERIKA OR ITS REMNANTS ON FRIDAY. THEREFORE GOING WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCE POPS PER POTENTIAL TROPICAL TYPE PWATS OVER THE AREA
DURING HEATING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE IN DAILY TEMPS GIVEN SUCH A HUMID/WARM
AIRMASS...SUPPORTING HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S EXCEPT
PERHAPS A BIT COOLER FRIDAY PENDING CLOUDS/SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 720 PM EDT FRIDAY...

REALLY NOT SEEING MUCH HINDRANCE TO AVIATION THIS PERIOD. WILL SEE
THE SCT/BKN CU EARLY THIS EVENING FLATTEN OUT TO STRATOCU
OVERNIGHT AND MAY KEEP BLF/LWB/BCB SCT V BKN BUT AT 4-6KFT.

LOOKING AT THE MINIMAL THREAT OF GROUND FOG AT BCB/LWB SO KEPT THE
TEMPO GROUPS IN FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL LEAD
TO A PERSISTENCE FORECAST. ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF AFTER DAYBREAK
TOMORROW AND EXPECT SCT/V/BKN VFR CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE BUT NOT MUCH
COVERAGE TO HAVE IN THE TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
AS OF 130 PM EDT FRIDAY...

EXPECT A MAINLY VFR FORECAST INTO SUNDAY. MOISTURE GRADUALLY
INCREASES...WHICH WILL RAISE OUR CHANCES FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL GIVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME
FRAME. GENERALLY EXPECT THE BEST CHANCES FOR MVFR/IFR TO BE LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING DUE TO FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT FROM THE
BLUE RIDGE WEST ESPECIALLY AT KLWB/KBCB.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...MBS/WP
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...MBS/WP



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290220
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1020 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VERY QUIET WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE....CENTERED OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES LATE THIS EVENING...IS PROVIDING DRY AND
SEASONABLE WEATHER. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY SATURDAY EVENING...BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE QUIET WEATHER. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE GOOD AGAIN
OVERNIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. BASED ON LAST NIGHT...HAVE
STAYED UNDER GUIDANCE FOR LOWS WITH READINGS AGAIN REACHING THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

THE MODELS SHOW SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TRYING TO SLIDE OVER THE
AREA ON SATURDAY SO HAVE BUMPED UP THE SKY COVER A BIT...BUT
EXPECT THAT THIS CIRRUS WILL BE PRETTY THIN SO SHOULD STILL SEE
LOTS OF SUN. FOR HIGHS GENERALLY WENT NEAR TO OR JUST A DEGREE
ABOVE TODAYS HIGHS...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY LOSES ITS GRIP ON THE REGIONS
WEATHER ON SUNDAY...BUT THE FRONT THAT IS STALL OFF THE SE COAST
DOES NOT GET MUCH OF A PUSH TO COME BACK NORTH AND SLOWLY
DISSIPATES. HOWEVER...THE MODELS DO SHOW AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LIFTING NORTHEAST AND
INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS FEATURE MAY BE ENOUGH
TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA
WERE THE MOISTURE IS MORE PLENTIFUL.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...CONTINUES THE TREND OF THE DRY WEATHER WITH
LOTS OF CLEAR SKY. BUT WITH SOME CIRRUS AROUND...STAYED CLOSE TO
THE MOS GUIDANCE AS COOLING CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE AS GOOD AS THE
LAST FEW NIGHTS. ON SUNDAY...KEPT THE WEATHER DRY BUT WITH THE
FLOW BEGINNING TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY...SHOULD SEE HUMIDITY BEGIN
TO INCREASE WITH HIGHS GETTING BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90
DEGREES.

WITH THE UPPER LOW BEGINNING TO APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...SHOULD SEE THE CLOUDS THICKEN A LITTLE AND THE CHANCE FOR
AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. FOR NOW
HAVE HELD THE CHANCES TO THE SE OF THE PATH OF THE SHORTWAVE...BUT
IF THE MOISTURE IS A LITTLE MORE ABUNDANT COULD SEE SHOWERS REACH
ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE I-85 CORRIDOR. FOR TEMPERATURES...SHOULD
SEE A MILDER NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT ...BUT HELD TEMPERATURES DOWN A
FEW DEGREES FROM SUNDAYS HIGHS ON MONDAY WITH READINGS MORE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY
BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A WEAK
TROUGH IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH THE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE
SERN US. THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM TS
ERIKA...OR ITS REMNANTS AT THAT TIME. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS
SHOWS THE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID-
ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED S OF THE REGION. GIVEN THIS...FORECAST POPS WILL BE BELOW
15%. BEYOND THAT THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY. IF THE MID-LEVEL HIGH
CENTER RETREATS FAR ENOUGH N SOME OF THIS MOISTURE COULD SPREAD INTO
THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...IF THE HIGH REMAINS OVERHEAD
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE REGION. 20-30% POPS HAVE BEEN
INTRODUCED MAINLY INTO FRIDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS UNCERTAINTY. WARM
AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THROUGH THE WEEK WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...WITH MID 80S AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY FORECAST HIGHS DROP INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S...WITH LOW 80S AT THE BEACHES. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY VFR CONDS. KEPT FOG OUT
OF THE FCST BUT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER TEMPO MVFR FOR THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AT SBY FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE. GENERALLY THE MOS
FCSTS HAVE BEEN OVERDONE WITH FOG THERE IN RECENT WEEKS.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY AND VFR CONDS WITH WINDS AOB 10 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE A THREAT
FOR PATCHY FOG EACH MORNING NEAR SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THIS IS PRODUCING A N-NE WIND ACROSS THE AREA...WITH SPEEDS OF 5-
10KT (10-15KT S OF THE VA/NC BORDER). THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE SATURDAY. THE WIND
GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO E-SE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON (ALTHOUGH NE WILL
LIKELY PERSIST S OF THE VA/NC BORDER) WITH SPEEDS REMAINING AOB 10-
15KT. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY...BEFORE THE FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMES SOUTHERLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH WIND SPEEDS NO HIGHER THAN 10-15KT. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED
AT 3-4FT OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE...SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 2-3FT...WITH 1-2 FT WAVES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS
NEAR TERM...ESS/JDM
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ



000
FXUS61 KLWX 290140 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
940 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND
THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. NOT SURE WHETHER ANY FOG
WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. WINDS BECOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT BUT
BLENDED TPW PRODUCT DOES NOT SHOW ANY MOISTURE ADVECTION.

PREVIOUS AFD...

TONIGHT...SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICAL
VALLEYS/RURAL AREAS. LOWS WILL INCH UP COMPARED TO THURSDAY NIGHT
COINCIDENT WITH DEW POINTS....WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SFC HIGH INCHES EAST ON SATURDAY. THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL GET SHEARED OUT AND WILL LIKELY HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON THE
LOCAL AREA. LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING ENDS UP JUST EAST OF THE
AREA...WHICH WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BE ESTABLISHED. THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM TO DEVELOP
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS...BUT OVERALL ATMOSPHERE
STILL LOOKS FAIRLY STABLE. HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

WITH DEW POINTS BEGINNING TO RISE BY SATURDAY NIGHT...PATCHY FOG
WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE SOUTH/WEST...ALTHOUGH SOME CIRRUS COULD BEGIN
TO SPILL ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS WILL ALSO BE A LITTLE MORE
MILD...WITH MID 60S COMMON TO AROUND 70 IN THE URBAN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WX LOOKS TO RMN FAIRLY QUIET TO END THE LAST WKND IN AUG. HIGH
PRES MOVES OFFSHORE..THE NEXT CD FNT IS HUNDREDS OF MILES TO THE
W...AND ERIKA IS BTWN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA. THIS WL LV THE MID
ATLC IN A WARM AIR MASS. HIGHS SUN U80/L90S...SUN NGT MU60S XCPT
L70S ALONG THE BAY/IN CITIES. NO REAL CHG XPCTD FOR MON.

ISOLD CNVTCN SUN-MON WL BE PSBL W/ INCRSG HUMIDITY...PRIMARILY
OVR THE MTNS.

UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF OVER GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY MONDAY WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST TO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND STALLING WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE LOW CENTER THAT FORMS OVER AREA TUESDAY WILL STAY THROUGH
END OF THE PERIOD. SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MEAGER DURING
EARLY HALF OF PERIOD BUT WILL STRENGTHEN DURING LATTER HALF.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HAVE INTRODUCED MVFR BR AT CHO TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
LOW...AND CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT DEVELOPMENT AT MRB AS WELL.
SIMILAR POSSIBILITIES OF BR SATURDAY NIGHT. LIGHT AND VRB WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL BECOME PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHERLY
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH SPEEDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KT.

VFR CONDS XPCTD SUN/MON. LGT FOG PSBL OVRNGT IAD/MRB/CHO BOTH
NGTS. ISOLD AFTN/EVE TSTMS PSBL BOTH DAYS...PRIMARILY OVR THE
APLCHNS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL SLIDE EAST SATURDAY AND PROVIDE DRY
WX. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BECOME PREDOMINANTLY
SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY. THIS MAY ALLOW SOME SPEEDS OF UP TO 15 KT
ON THE BAY BY SATURDAY EVENING...BUT SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

WINDS XPCTD TO RMN BLO SCA VALUES SUN AND MON.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ABW
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...ABW
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...CEM/LFR/ABW
MARINE...CEM/LFR/ABW




000
FXUS61 KLWX 290140 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
940 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND
THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. NOT SURE WHETHER ANY FOG
WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. WINDS BECOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT BUT
BLENDED TPW PRODUCT DOES NOT SHOW ANY MOISTURE ADVECTION.

PREVIOUS AFD...

TONIGHT...SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICAL
VALLEYS/RURAL AREAS. LOWS WILL INCH UP COMPARED TO THURSDAY NIGHT
COINCIDENT WITH DEW POINTS....WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SFC HIGH INCHES EAST ON SATURDAY. THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL GET SHEARED OUT AND WILL LIKELY HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON THE
LOCAL AREA. LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING ENDS UP JUST EAST OF THE
AREA...WHICH WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BE ESTABLISHED. THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM TO DEVELOP
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS...BUT OVERALL ATMOSPHERE
STILL LOOKS FAIRLY STABLE. HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

WITH DEW POINTS BEGINNING TO RISE BY SATURDAY NIGHT...PATCHY FOG
WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE SOUTH/WEST...ALTHOUGH SOME CIRRUS COULD BEGIN
TO SPILL ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS WILL ALSO BE A LITTLE MORE
MILD...WITH MID 60S COMMON TO AROUND 70 IN THE URBAN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WX LOOKS TO RMN FAIRLY QUIET TO END THE LAST WKND IN AUG. HIGH
PRES MOVES OFFSHORE..THE NEXT CD FNT IS HUNDREDS OF MILES TO THE
W...AND ERIKA IS BTWN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA. THIS WL LV THE MID
ATLC IN A WARM AIR MASS. HIGHS SUN U80/L90S...SUN NGT MU60S XCPT
L70S ALONG THE BAY/IN CITIES. NO REAL CHG XPCTD FOR MON.

ISOLD CNVTCN SUN-MON WL BE PSBL W/ INCRSG HUMIDITY...PRIMARILY
OVR THE MTNS.

UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF OVER GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY MONDAY WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST TO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND STALLING WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE LOW CENTER THAT FORMS OVER AREA TUESDAY WILL STAY THROUGH
END OF THE PERIOD. SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MEAGER DURING
EARLY HALF OF PERIOD BUT WILL STRENGTHEN DURING LATTER HALF.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HAVE INTRODUCED MVFR BR AT CHO TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
LOW...AND CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT DEVELOPMENT AT MRB AS WELL.
SIMILAR POSSIBILITIES OF BR SATURDAY NIGHT. LIGHT AND VRB WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL BECOME PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHERLY
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH SPEEDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KT.

VFR CONDS XPCTD SUN/MON. LGT FOG PSBL OVRNGT IAD/MRB/CHO BOTH
NGTS. ISOLD AFTN/EVE TSTMS PSBL BOTH DAYS...PRIMARILY OVR THE
APLCHNS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL SLIDE EAST SATURDAY AND PROVIDE DRY
WX. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BECOME PREDOMINANTLY
SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY. THIS MAY ALLOW SOME SPEEDS OF UP TO 15 KT
ON THE BAY BY SATURDAY EVENING...BUT SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

WINDS XPCTD TO RMN BLO SCA VALUES SUN AND MON.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ABW
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...ABW
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...CEM/LFR/ABW
MARINE...CEM/LFR/ABW




000
FXUS61 KLWX 290140 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
940 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND
THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. NOT SURE WHETHER ANY FOG
WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. WINDS BECOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT BUT
BLENDED TPW PRODUCT DOES NOT SHOW ANY MOISTURE ADVECTION.

PREVIOUS AFD...

TONIGHT...SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICAL
VALLEYS/RURAL AREAS. LOWS WILL INCH UP COMPARED TO THURSDAY NIGHT
COINCIDENT WITH DEW POINTS....WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SFC HIGH INCHES EAST ON SATURDAY. THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL GET SHEARED OUT AND WILL LIKELY HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON THE
LOCAL AREA. LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING ENDS UP JUST EAST OF THE
AREA...WHICH WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BE ESTABLISHED. THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM TO DEVELOP
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS...BUT OVERALL ATMOSPHERE
STILL LOOKS FAIRLY STABLE. HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

WITH DEW POINTS BEGINNING TO RISE BY SATURDAY NIGHT...PATCHY FOG
WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE SOUTH/WEST...ALTHOUGH SOME CIRRUS COULD BEGIN
TO SPILL ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS WILL ALSO BE A LITTLE MORE
MILD...WITH MID 60S COMMON TO AROUND 70 IN THE URBAN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WX LOOKS TO RMN FAIRLY QUIET TO END THE LAST WKND IN AUG. HIGH
PRES MOVES OFFSHORE..THE NEXT CD FNT IS HUNDREDS OF MILES TO THE
W...AND ERIKA IS BTWN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA. THIS WL LV THE MID
ATLC IN A WARM AIR MASS. HIGHS SUN U80/L90S...SUN NGT MU60S XCPT
L70S ALONG THE BAY/IN CITIES. NO REAL CHG XPCTD FOR MON.

ISOLD CNVTCN SUN-MON WL BE PSBL W/ INCRSG HUMIDITY...PRIMARILY
OVR THE MTNS.

UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF OVER GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY MONDAY WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST TO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND STALLING WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE LOW CENTER THAT FORMS OVER AREA TUESDAY WILL STAY THROUGH
END OF THE PERIOD. SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MEAGER DURING
EARLY HALF OF PERIOD BUT WILL STRENGTHEN DURING LATTER HALF.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HAVE INTRODUCED MVFR BR AT CHO TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
LOW...AND CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT DEVELOPMENT AT MRB AS WELL.
SIMILAR POSSIBILITIES OF BR SATURDAY NIGHT. LIGHT AND VRB WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL BECOME PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHERLY
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH SPEEDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KT.

VFR CONDS XPCTD SUN/MON. LGT FOG PSBL OVRNGT IAD/MRB/CHO BOTH
NGTS. ISOLD AFTN/EVE TSTMS PSBL BOTH DAYS...PRIMARILY OVR THE
APLCHNS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL SLIDE EAST SATURDAY AND PROVIDE DRY
WX. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BECOME PREDOMINANTLY
SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY. THIS MAY ALLOW SOME SPEEDS OF UP TO 15 KT
ON THE BAY BY SATURDAY EVENING...BUT SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

WINDS XPCTD TO RMN BLO SCA VALUES SUN AND MON.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ABW
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...ABW
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...CEM/LFR/ABW
MARINE...CEM/LFR/ABW




000
FXUS61 KLWX 290140 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
940 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND
THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. NOT SURE WHETHER ANY FOG
WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. WINDS BECOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT BUT
BLENDED TPW PRODUCT DOES NOT SHOW ANY MOISTURE ADVECTION.

PREVIOUS AFD...

TONIGHT...SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICAL
VALLEYS/RURAL AREAS. LOWS WILL INCH UP COMPARED TO THURSDAY NIGHT
COINCIDENT WITH DEW POINTS....WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SFC HIGH INCHES EAST ON SATURDAY. THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL GET SHEARED OUT AND WILL LIKELY HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON THE
LOCAL AREA. LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING ENDS UP JUST EAST OF THE
AREA...WHICH WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BE ESTABLISHED. THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM TO DEVELOP
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS...BUT OVERALL ATMOSPHERE
STILL LOOKS FAIRLY STABLE. HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

WITH DEW POINTS BEGINNING TO RISE BY SATURDAY NIGHT...PATCHY FOG
WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE SOUTH/WEST...ALTHOUGH SOME CIRRUS COULD BEGIN
TO SPILL ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS WILL ALSO BE A LITTLE MORE
MILD...WITH MID 60S COMMON TO AROUND 70 IN THE URBAN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WX LOOKS TO RMN FAIRLY QUIET TO END THE LAST WKND IN AUG. HIGH
PRES MOVES OFFSHORE..THE NEXT CD FNT IS HUNDREDS OF MILES TO THE
W...AND ERIKA IS BTWN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA. THIS WL LV THE MID
ATLC IN A WARM AIR MASS. HIGHS SUN U80/L90S...SUN NGT MU60S XCPT
L70S ALONG THE BAY/IN CITIES. NO REAL CHG XPCTD FOR MON.

ISOLD CNVTCN SUN-MON WL BE PSBL W/ INCRSG HUMIDITY...PRIMARILY
OVR THE MTNS.

UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF OVER GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY MONDAY WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST TO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND STALLING WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE LOW CENTER THAT FORMS OVER AREA TUESDAY WILL STAY THROUGH
END OF THE PERIOD. SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MEAGER DURING
EARLY HALF OF PERIOD BUT WILL STRENGTHEN DURING LATTER HALF.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HAVE INTRODUCED MVFR BR AT CHO TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
LOW...AND CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT DEVELOPMENT AT MRB AS WELL.
SIMILAR POSSIBILITIES OF BR SATURDAY NIGHT. LIGHT AND VRB WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL BECOME PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHERLY
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH SPEEDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KT.

VFR CONDS XPCTD SUN/MON. LGT FOG PSBL OVRNGT IAD/MRB/CHO BOTH
NGTS. ISOLD AFTN/EVE TSTMS PSBL BOTH DAYS...PRIMARILY OVR THE
APLCHNS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL SLIDE EAST SATURDAY AND PROVIDE DRY
WX. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BECOME PREDOMINANTLY
SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY. THIS MAY ALLOW SOME SPEEDS OF UP TO 15 KT
ON THE BAY BY SATURDAY EVENING...BUT SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

WINDS XPCTD TO RMN BLO SCA VALUES SUN AND MON.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ABW
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...ABW
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...CEM/LFR/ABW
MARINE...CEM/LFR/ABW




000
FXUS61 KLWX 290140 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
940 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND
THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. NOT SURE WHETHER ANY FOG
WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. WINDS BECOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT BUT
BLENDED TPW PRODUCT DOES NOT SHOW ANY MOISTURE ADVECTION.

PREVIOUS AFD...

TONIGHT...SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICAL
VALLEYS/RURAL AREAS. LOWS WILL INCH UP COMPARED TO THURSDAY NIGHT
COINCIDENT WITH DEW POINTS....WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SFC HIGH INCHES EAST ON SATURDAY. THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL GET SHEARED OUT AND WILL LIKELY HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON THE
LOCAL AREA. LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING ENDS UP JUST EAST OF THE
AREA...WHICH WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BE ESTABLISHED. THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM TO DEVELOP
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS...BUT OVERALL ATMOSPHERE
STILL LOOKS FAIRLY STABLE. HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

WITH DEW POINTS BEGINNING TO RISE BY SATURDAY NIGHT...PATCHY FOG
WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE SOUTH/WEST...ALTHOUGH SOME CIRRUS COULD BEGIN
TO SPILL ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS WILL ALSO BE A LITTLE MORE
MILD...WITH MID 60S COMMON TO AROUND 70 IN THE URBAN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WX LOOKS TO RMN FAIRLY QUIET TO END THE LAST WKND IN AUG. HIGH
PRES MOVES OFFSHORE..THE NEXT CD FNT IS HUNDREDS OF MILES TO THE
W...AND ERIKA IS BTWN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA. THIS WL LV THE MID
ATLC IN A WARM AIR MASS. HIGHS SUN U80/L90S...SUN NGT MU60S XCPT
L70S ALONG THE BAY/IN CITIES. NO REAL CHG XPCTD FOR MON.

ISOLD CNVTCN SUN-MON WL BE PSBL W/ INCRSG HUMIDITY...PRIMARILY
OVR THE MTNS.

UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF OVER GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY MONDAY WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST TO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND STALLING WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE LOW CENTER THAT FORMS OVER AREA TUESDAY WILL STAY THROUGH
END OF THE PERIOD. SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MEAGER DURING
EARLY HALF OF PERIOD BUT WILL STRENGTHEN DURING LATTER HALF.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HAVE INTRODUCED MVFR BR AT CHO TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
LOW...AND CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT DEVELOPMENT AT MRB AS WELL.
SIMILAR POSSIBILITIES OF BR SATURDAY NIGHT. LIGHT AND VRB WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL BECOME PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHERLY
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH SPEEDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KT.

VFR CONDS XPCTD SUN/MON. LGT FOG PSBL OVRNGT IAD/MRB/CHO BOTH
NGTS. ISOLD AFTN/EVE TSTMS PSBL BOTH DAYS...PRIMARILY OVR THE
APLCHNS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL SLIDE EAST SATURDAY AND PROVIDE DRY
WX. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BECOME PREDOMINANTLY
SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY. THIS MAY ALLOW SOME SPEEDS OF UP TO 15 KT
ON THE BAY BY SATURDAY EVENING...BUT SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

WINDS XPCTD TO RMN BLO SCA VALUES SUN AND MON.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ABW
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...ABW
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...CEM/LFR/ABW
MARINE...CEM/LFR/ABW




000
FXUS61 KLWX 290140 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
940 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND
THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. NOT SURE WHETHER ANY FOG
WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. WINDS BECOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT BUT
BLENDED TPW PRODUCT DOES NOT SHOW ANY MOISTURE ADVECTION.

PREVIOUS AFD...

TONIGHT...SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICAL
VALLEYS/RURAL AREAS. LOWS WILL INCH UP COMPARED TO THURSDAY NIGHT
COINCIDENT WITH DEW POINTS....WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SFC HIGH INCHES EAST ON SATURDAY. THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL GET SHEARED OUT AND WILL LIKELY HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON THE
LOCAL AREA. LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING ENDS UP JUST EAST OF THE
AREA...WHICH WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BE ESTABLISHED. THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM TO DEVELOP
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS...BUT OVERALL ATMOSPHERE
STILL LOOKS FAIRLY STABLE. HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

WITH DEW POINTS BEGINNING TO RISE BY SATURDAY NIGHT...PATCHY FOG
WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE SOUTH/WEST...ALTHOUGH SOME CIRRUS COULD BEGIN
TO SPILL ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS WILL ALSO BE A LITTLE MORE
MILD...WITH MID 60S COMMON TO AROUND 70 IN THE URBAN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WX LOOKS TO RMN FAIRLY QUIET TO END THE LAST WKND IN AUG. HIGH
PRES MOVES OFFSHORE..THE NEXT CD FNT IS HUNDREDS OF MILES TO THE
W...AND ERIKA IS BTWN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA. THIS WL LV THE MID
ATLC IN A WARM AIR MASS. HIGHS SUN U80/L90S...SUN NGT MU60S XCPT
L70S ALONG THE BAY/IN CITIES. NO REAL CHG XPCTD FOR MON.

ISOLD CNVTCN SUN-MON WL BE PSBL W/ INCRSG HUMIDITY...PRIMARILY
OVR THE MTNS.

UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF OVER GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY MONDAY WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST TO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND STALLING WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE LOW CENTER THAT FORMS OVER AREA TUESDAY WILL STAY THROUGH
END OF THE PERIOD. SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MEAGER DURING
EARLY HALF OF PERIOD BUT WILL STRENGTHEN DURING LATTER HALF.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HAVE INTRODUCED MVFR BR AT CHO TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
LOW...AND CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT DEVELOPMENT AT MRB AS WELL.
SIMILAR POSSIBILITIES OF BR SATURDAY NIGHT. LIGHT AND VRB WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL BECOME PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHERLY
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH SPEEDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KT.

VFR CONDS XPCTD SUN/MON. LGT FOG PSBL OVRNGT IAD/MRB/CHO BOTH
NGTS. ISOLD AFTN/EVE TSTMS PSBL BOTH DAYS...PRIMARILY OVR THE
APLCHNS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL SLIDE EAST SATURDAY AND PROVIDE DRY
WX. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BECOME PREDOMINANTLY
SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY. THIS MAY ALLOW SOME SPEEDS OF UP TO 15 KT
ON THE BAY BY SATURDAY EVENING...BUT SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

WINDS XPCTD TO RMN BLO SCA VALUES SUN AND MON.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ABW
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...ABW
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...CEM/LFR/ABW
MARINE...CEM/LFR/ABW




000
FXUS61 KLWX 290140 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
940 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND
THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. NOT SURE WHETHER ANY FOG
WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. WINDS BECOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT BUT
BLENDED TPW PRODUCT DOES NOT SHOW ANY MOISTURE ADVECTION.

PREVIOUS AFD...

TONIGHT...SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICAL
VALLEYS/RURAL AREAS. LOWS WILL INCH UP COMPARED TO THURSDAY NIGHT
COINCIDENT WITH DEW POINTS....WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SFC HIGH INCHES EAST ON SATURDAY. THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL GET SHEARED OUT AND WILL LIKELY HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON THE
LOCAL AREA. LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING ENDS UP JUST EAST OF THE
AREA...WHICH WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BE ESTABLISHED. THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM TO DEVELOP
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS...BUT OVERALL ATMOSPHERE
STILL LOOKS FAIRLY STABLE. HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

WITH DEW POINTS BEGINNING TO RISE BY SATURDAY NIGHT...PATCHY FOG
WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE SOUTH/WEST...ALTHOUGH SOME CIRRUS COULD BEGIN
TO SPILL ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS WILL ALSO BE A LITTLE MORE
MILD...WITH MID 60S COMMON TO AROUND 70 IN THE URBAN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WX LOOKS TO RMN FAIRLY QUIET TO END THE LAST WKND IN AUG. HIGH
PRES MOVES OFFSHORE..THE NEXT CD FNT IS HUNDREDS OF MILES TO THE
W...AND ERIKA IS BTWN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA. THIS WL LV THE MID
ATLC IN A WARM AIR MASS. HIGHS SUN U80/L90S...SUN NGT MU60S XCPT
L70S ALONG THE BAY/IN CITIES. NO REAL CHG XPCTD FOR MON.

ISOLD CNVTCN SUN-MON WL BE PSBL W/ INCRSG HUMIDITY...PRIMARILY
OVR THE MTNS.

UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF OVER GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY MONDAY WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST TO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND STALLING WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE LOW CENTER THAT FORMS OVER AREA TUESDAY WILL STAY THROUGH
END OF THE PERIOD. SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MEAGER DURING
EARLY HALF OF PERIOD BUT WILL STRENGTHEN DURING LATTER HALF.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HAVE INTRODUCED MVFR BR AT CHO TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
LOW...AND CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT DEVELOPMENT AT MRB AS WELL.
SIMILAR POSSIBILITIES OF BR SATURDAY NIGHT. LIGHT AND VRB WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL BECOME PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHERLY
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH SPEEDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KT.

VFR CONDS XPCTD SUN/MON. LGT FOG PSBL OVRNGT IAD/MRB/CHO BOTH
NGTS. ISOLD AFTN/EVE TSTMS PSBL BOTH DAYS...PRIMARILY OVR THE
APLCHNS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL SLIDE EAST SATURDAY AND PROVIDE DRY
WX. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BECOME PREDOMINANTLY
SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY. THIS MAY ALLOW SOME SPEEDS OF UP TO 15 KT
ON THE BAY BY SATURDAY EVENING...BUT SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

WINDS XPCTD TO RMN BLO SCA VALUES SUN AND MON.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ABW
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...ABW
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...CEM/LFR/ABW
MARINE...CEM/LFR/ABW




000
FXUS61 KLWX 290140 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
940 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND
THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. NOT SURE WHETHER ANY FOG
WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. WINDS BECOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT BUT
BLENDED TPW PRODUCT DOES NOT SHOW ANY MOISTURE ADVECTION.

PREVIOUS AFD...

TONIGHT...SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICAL
VALLEYS/RURAL AREAS. LOWS WILL INCH UP COMPARED TO THURSDAY NIGHT
COINCIDENT WITH DEW POINTS....WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SFC HIGH INCHES EAST ON SATURDAY. THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL GET SHEARED OUT AND WILL LIKELY HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON THE
LOCAL AREA. LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING ENDS UP JUST EAST OF THE
AREA...WHICH WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BE ESTABLISHED. THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM TO DEVELOP
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS...BUT OVERALL ATMOSPHERE
STILL LOOKS FAIRLY STABLE. HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

WITH DEW POINTS BEGINNING TO RISE BY SATURDAY NIGHT...PATCHY FOG
WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE SOUTH/WEST...ALTHOUGH SOME CIRRUS COULD BEGIN
TO SPILL ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS WILL ALSO BE A LITTLE MORE
MILD...WITH MID 60S COMMON TO AROUND 70 IN THE URBAN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WX LOOKS TO RMN FAIRLY QUIET TO END THE LAST WKND IN AUG. HIGH
PRES MOVES OFFSHORE..THE NEXT CD FNT IS HUNDREDS OF MILES TO THE
W...AND ERIKA IS BTWN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA. THIS WL LV THE MID
ATLC IN A WARM AIR MASS. HIGHS SUN U80/L90S...SUN NGT MU60S XCPT
L70S ALONG THE BAY/IN CITIES. NO REAL CHG XPCTD FOR MON.

ISOLD CNVTCN SUN-MON WL BE PSBL W/ INCRSG HUMIDITY...PRIMARILY
OVR THE MTNS.

UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF OVER GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY MONDAY WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST TO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND STALLING WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE LOW CENTER THAT FORMS OVER AREA TUESDAY WILL STAY THROUGH
END OF THE PERIOD. SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MEAGER DURING
EARLY HALF OF PERIOD BUT WILL STRENGTHEN DURING LATTER HALF.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HAVE INTRODUCED MVFR BR AT CHO TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
LOW...AND CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT DEVELOPMENT AT MRB AS WELL.
SIMILAR POSSIBILITIES OF BR SATURDAY NIGHT. LIGHT AND VRB WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL BECOME PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHERLY
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH SPEEDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KT.

VFR CONDS XPCTD SUN/MON. LGT FOG PSBL OVRNGT IAD/MRB/CHO BOTH
NGTS. ISOLD AFTN/EVE TSTMS PSBL BOTH DAYS...PRIMARILY OVR THE
APLCHNS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL SLIDE EAST SATURDAY AND PROVIDE DRY
WX. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BECOME PREDOMINANTLY
SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY. THIS MAY ALLOW SOME SPEEDS OF UP TO 15 KT
ON THE BAY BY SATURDAY EVENING...BUT SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

WINDS XPCTD TO RMN BLO SCA VALUES SUN AND MON.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ABW
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...ABW
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...CEM/LFR/ABW
MARINE...CEM/LFR/ABW




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 282354
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
754 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VERY QUIET WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE....CENTERED OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON...IS PROVIDING DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC BY SATURDAY EVENING...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE QUIET WEATHER. THE CU OVER THE AREA SHOULD DISSIPATE AS
THE SUNSETS TONIGHT AND CONDITIONS SHOULD BE GOOD AGAIN FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING. BASED ON LAST NIGHT...HAVE GONE UNDER THE
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS WITH READINGS AGAIN SEEING SOME UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S READINGS AWAY FROM THE COAST.

THE MODELS SHOW SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TRYING TO SLIDE OVER THE
AREA ON SATURDAY SO HAVE BUMPED UP THE SKY COVER A BIT...BUT
EXPECT THAT THIS CIRRUS WILL BE PRETTY THIN SO SHOULD STILL SEE
LOTS OF SUN. FOR HIGHS GENERALLY WENT NEAR TO OR JUST A DEGREE
ABOVE TODAYS HIGHS...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY LOSES ITS GRIP ON THE REGIONS
WEATHER ON SUNDAY...BUT THE FRONT THAT IS STALL OFF THE SE COAST
DOES NOT GET MUCH OF A PUSH TO COME BACK NORTH AND SLOWLY
DISSIPATES. HOWEVER...THE MODELS DO SHOW AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LIFTING NORTHEAST AND
INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS FEATURE MAY BE ENOUGH
TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA
WERE THE MOISTURE IS MORE PLENTIFUL.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...CONTINUES THE TREND OF THE DRY WEATHER WITH
LOTS OF CLEAR SKY. BUT WITH SOME CIRRUS AROUND...STAYED CLOSE TO
THE MOS GUIDANCE AS COOLING CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE AS GOOD AS THE
LAST FEW NIGHTS. ON SUNDAY...KEPT THE WEATHER DRY BUT WITH THE
FLOW BEGINNING TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY...SHOULD SEE HUMIDITY BEGIN
TO INCREASE WITH HIGHS GETTING BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90
DEGREES.

WITH THE UPPER LOW BEGINNING TO APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...SHOULD SEE THE CLOUDS THICKEN A LITTLE AND THE CHANCE FOR
AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. FOR NOW
HAVE HELD THE CHANCES TO THE SE OF THE PATH OF THE SHORTWAVE...BUT
IF THE MOISTURE IS A LITTLE MORE ABUNDANT COULD SEE SHOWERS REACH
ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE I-85 CORRIDOR. FOR TEMPERATURES...SHOULD
SEE A MILDER NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT ...BUT HELD TEMPERATURES DOWN A
FEW DEGREES FROM SUNDAYS HIGHS ON MONDAY WITH READINGS MORE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY
BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A WEAK
TROUGH IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH THE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE
SERN US. THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM TS
ERIKA...OR ITS REMNANTS AT THAT TIME. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS
SHOWS THE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID-
ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED S OF THE REGION. GIVEN THIS...FORECAST POPS WILL BE BELOW
15%. BEYOND THAT THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY. IF THE MID-LEVEL HIGH
CENTER RETREATS FAR ENOUGH N SOME OF THIS MOISTURE COULD SPREAD INTO
THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...IF THE HIGH REMAINS OVERHEAD
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE REGION. 20-30% POPS HAVE BEEN
INTRODUCED MAINLY INTO FRIDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS UNCERTAINTY. WARM
AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THROUGH THE WEEK WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...WITH MID 80S AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY FORECAST HIGHS DROP INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S...WITH LOW 80S AT THE BEACHES. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY VFR CONDS. KEPT FOG OUT
OF THE FCST BUT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER TEMPO MVFR FOR THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AT SBY FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE. GENERALLY THE MOS
FCSTS HAVE BEEN OVERDONE WITH FOG THERE IN RECENT WEEKS.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY AND VFR CONDS WITH WINDS AOB 10 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE A THREAT
FOR PATCHY FOG EACH MORNING NEAR SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THIS IS PRODUCING A N-NE WIND ACROSS THE AREA...WITH SPEEDS OF 5-
10KT (10-15KT S OF THE VA/NC BORDER). THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE SATURDAY. THE WIND
GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO E-SE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON (ALTHOUGH NE WILL
LIKELY PERSIST S OF THE VA/NC BORDER) WITH SPEEDS REMAINING AOB 10-
15KT. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY...BEFORE THE FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMES SOUTHERLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH WIND SPEEDS NO HIGHER THAN 10-15KT. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED
AT 3-4FT OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE...SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 2-3FT...WITH 1-2 FT WAVES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS
NEAR TERM...ESS
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 282354
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
754 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VERY QUIET WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE....CENTERED OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON...IS PROVIDING DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC BY SATURDAY EVENING...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE QUIET WEATHER. THE CU OVER THE AREA SHOULD DISSIPATE AS
THE SUNSETS TONIGHT AND CONDITIONS SHOULD BE GOOD AGAIN FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING. BASED ON LAST NIGHT...HAVE GONE UNDER THE
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS WITH READINGS AGAIN SEEING SOME UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S READINGS AWAY FROM THE COAST.

THE MODELS SHOW SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TRYING TO SLIDE OVER THE
AREA ON SATURDAY SO HAVE BUMPED UP THE SKY COVER A BIT...BUT
EXPECT THAT THIS CIRRUS WILL BE PRETTY THIN SO SHOULD STILL SEE
LOTS OF SUN. FOR HIGHS GENERALLY WENT NEAR TO OR JUST A DEGREE
ABOVE TODAYS HIGHS...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY LOSES ITS GRIP ON THE REGIONS
WEATHER ON SUNDAY...BUT THE FRONT THAT IS STALL OFF THE SE COAST
DOES NOT GET MUCH OF A PUSH TO COME BACK NORTH AND SLOWLY
DISSIPATES. HOWEVER...THE MODELS DO SHOW AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LIFTING NORTHEAST AND
INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS FEATURE MAY BE ENOUGH
TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA
WERE THE MOISTURE IS MORE PLENTIFUL.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...CONTINUES THE TREND OF THE DRY WEATHER WITH
LOTS OF CLEAR SKY. BUT WITH SOME CIRRUS AROUND...STAYED CLOSE TO
THE MOS GUIDANCE AS COOLING CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE AS GOOD AS THE
LAST FEW NIGHTS. ON SUNDAY...KEPT THE WEATHER DRY BUT WITH THE
FLOW BEGINNING TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY...SHOULD SEE HUMIDITY BEGIN
TO INCREASE WITH HIGHS GETTING BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90
DEGREES.

WITH THE UPPER LOW BEGINNING TO APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...SHOULD SEE THE CLOUDS THICKEN A LITTLE AND THE CHANCE FOR
AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. FOR NOW
HAVE HELD THE CHANCES TO THE SE OF THE PATH OF THE SHORTWAVE...BUT
IF THE MOISTURE IS A LITTLE MORE ABUNDANT COULD SEE SHOWERS REACH
ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE I-85 CORRIDOR. FOR TEMPERATURES...SHOULD
SEE A MILDER NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT ...BUT HELD TEMPERATURES DOWN A
FEW DEGREES FROM SUNDAYS HIGHS ON MONDAY WITH READINGS MORE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY
BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A WEAK
TROUGH IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH THE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE
SERN US. THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM TS
ERIKA...OR ITS REMNANTS AT THAT TIME. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS
SHOWS THE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID-
ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED S OF THE REGION. GIVEN THIS...FORECAST POPS WILL BE BELOW
15%. BEYOND THAT THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY. IF THE MID-LEVEL HIGH
CENTER RETREATS FAR ENOUGH N SOME OF THIS MOISTURE COULD SPREAD INTO
THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...IF THE HIGH REMAINS OVERHEAD
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE REGION. 20-30% POPS HAVE BEEN
INTRODUCED MAINLY INTO FRIDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS UNCERTAINTY. WARM
AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THROUGH THE WEEK WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...WITH MID 80S AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY FORECAST HIGHS DROP INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S...WITH LOW 80S AT THE BEACHES. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY VFR CONDS. KEPT FOG OUT
OF THE FCST BUT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER TEMPO MVFR FOR THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AT SBY FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE. GENERALLY THE MOS
FCSTS HAVE BEEN OVERDONE WITH FOG THERE IN RECENT WEEKS.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY AND VFR CONDS WITH WINDS AOB 10 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE A THREAT
FOR PATCHY FOG EACH MORNING NEAR SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THIS IS PRODUCING A N-NE WIND ACROSS THE AREA...WITH SPEEDS OF 5-
10KT (10-15KT S OF THE VA/NC BORDER). THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE SATURDAY. THE WIND
GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO E-SE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON (ALTHOUGH NE WILL
LIKELY PERSIST S OF THE VA/NC BORDER) WITH SPEEDS REMAINING AOB 10-
15KT. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY...BEFORE THE FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMES SOUTHERLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH WIND SPEEDS NO HIGHER THAN 10-15KT. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED
AT 3-4FT OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE...SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 2-3FT...WITH 1-2 FT WAVES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS
NEAR TERM...ESS
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 282354
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
754 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VERY QUIET WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE....CENTERED OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON...IS PROVIDING DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC BY SATURDAY EVENING...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE QUIET WEATHER. THE CU OVER THE AREA SHOULD DISSIPATE AS
THE SUNSETS TONIGHT AND CONDITIONS SHOULD BE GOOD AGAIN FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING. BASED ON LAST NIGHT...HAVE GONE UNDER THE
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS WITH READINGS AGAIN SEEING SOME UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S READINGS AWAY FROM THE COAST.

THE MODELS SHOW SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TRYING TO SLIDE OVER THE
AREA ON SATURDAY SO HAVE BUMPED UP THE SKY COVER A BIT...BUT
EXPECT THAT THIS CIRRUS WILL BE PRETTY THIN SO SHOULD STILL SEE
LOTS OF SUN. FOR HIGHS GENERALLY WENT NEAR TO OR JUST A DEGREE
ABOVE TODAYS HIGHS...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY LOSES ITS GRIP ON THE REGIONS
WEATHER ON SUNDAY...BUT THE FRONT THAT IS STALL OFF THE SE COAST
DOES NOT GET MUCH OF A PUSH TO COME BACK NORTH AND SLOWLY
DISSIPATES. HOWEVER...THE MODELS DO SHOW AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LIFTING NORTHEAST AND
INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS FEATURE MAY BE ENOUGH
TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA
WERE THE MOISTURE IS MORE PLENTIFUL.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...CONTINUES THE TREND OF THE DRY WEATHER WITH
LOTS OF CLEAR SKY. BUT WITH SOME CIRRUS AROUND...STAYED CLOSE TO
THE MOS GUIDANCE AS COOLING CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE AS GOOD AS THE
LAST FEW NIGHTS. ON SUNDAY...KEPT THE WEATHER DRY BUT WITH THE
FLOW BEGINNING TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY...SHOULD SEE HUMIDITY BEGIN
TO INCREASE WITH HIGHS GETTING BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90
DEGREES.

WITH THE UPPER LOW BEGINNING TO APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...SHOULD SEE THE CLOUDS THICKEN A LITTLE AND THE CHANCE FOR
AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. FOR NOW
HAVE HELD THE CHANCES TO THE SE OF THE PATH OF THE SHORTWAVE...BUT
IF THE MOISTURE IS A LITTLE MORE ABUNDANT COULD SEE SHOWERS REACH
ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE I-85 CORRIDOR. FOR TEMPERATURES...SHOULD
SEE A MILDER NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT ...BUT HELD TEMPERATURES DOWN A
FEW DEGREES FROM SUNDAYS HIGHS ON MONDAY WITH READINGS MORE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY
BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A WEAK
TROUGH IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH THE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE
SERN US. THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM TS
ERIKA...OR ITS REMNANTS AT THAT TIME. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS
SHOWS THE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID-
ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED S OF THE REGION. GIVEN THIS...FORECAST POPS WILL BE BELOW
15%. BEYOND THAT THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY. IF THE MID-LEVEL HIGH
CENTER RETREATS FAR ENOUGH N SOME OF THIS MOISTURE COULD SPREAD INTO
THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...IF THE HIGH REMAINS OVERHEAD
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE REGION. 20-30% POPS HAVE BEEN
INTRODUCED MAINLY INTO FRIDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS UNCERTAINTY. WARM
AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THROUGH THE WEEK WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...WITH MID 80S AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY FORECAST HIGHS DROP INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S...WITH LOW 80S AT THE BEACHES. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY VFR CONDS. KEPT FOG OUT
OF THE FCST BUT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER TEMPO MVFR FOR THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AT SBY FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE. GENERALLY THE MOS
FCSTS HAVE BEEN OVERDONE WITH FOG THERE IN RECENT WEEKS.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY AND VFR CONDS WITH WINDS AOB 10 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE A THREAT
FOR PATCHY FOG EACH MORNING NEAR SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THIS IS PRODUCING A N-NE WIND ACROSS THE AREA...WITH SPEEDS OF 5-
10KT (10-15KT S OF THE VA/NC BORDER). THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE SATURDAY. THE WIND
GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO E-SE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON (ALTHOUGH NE WILL
LIKELY PERSIST S OF THE VA/NC BORDER) WITH SPEEDS REMAINING AOB 10-
15KT. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY...BEFORE THE FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMES SOUTHERLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH WIND SPEEDS NO HIGHER THAN 10-15KT. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED
AT 3-4FT OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE...SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 2-3FT...WITH 1-2 FT WAVES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS
NEAR TERM...ESS
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 282354
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
754 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VERY QUIET WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE....CENTERED OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON...IS PROVIDING DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC BY SATURDAY EVENING...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE QUIET WEATHER. THE CU OVER THE AREA SHOULD DISSIPATE AS
THE SUNSETS TONIGHT AND CONDITIONS SHOULD BE GOOD AGAIN FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING. BASED ON LAST NIGHT...HAVE GONE UNDER THE
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS WITH READINGS AGAIN SEEING SOME UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S READINGS AWAY FROM THE COAST.

THE MODELS SHOW SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TRYING TO SLIDE OVER THE
AREA ON SATURDAY SO HAVE BUMPED UP THE SKY COVER A BIT...BUT
EXPECT THAT THIS CIRRUS WILL BE PRETTY THIN SO SHOULD STILL SEE
LOTS OF SUN. FOR HIGHS GENERALLY WENT NEAR TO OR JUST A DEGREE
ABOVE TODAYS HIGHS...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY LOSES ITS GRIP ON THE REGIONS
WEATHER ON SUNDAY...BUT THE FRONT THAT IS STALL OFF THE SE COAST
DOES NOT GET MUCH OF A PUSH TO COME BACK NORTH AND SLOWLY
DISSIPATES. HOWEVER...THE MODELS DO SHOW AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LIFTING NORTHEAST AND
INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS FEATURE MAY BE ENOUGH
TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA
WERE THE MOISTURE IS MORE PLENTIFUL.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...CONTINUES THE TREND OF THE DRY WEATHER WITH
LOTS OF CLEAR SKY. BUT WITH SOME CIRRUS AROUND...STAYED CLOSE TO
THE MOS GUIDANCE AS COOLING CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE AS GOOD AS THE
LAST FEW NIGHTS. ON SUNDAY...KEPT THE WEATHER DRY BUT WITH THE
FLOW BEGINNING TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY...SHOULD SEE HUMIDITY BEGIN
TO INCREASE WITH HIGHS GETTING BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90
DEGREES.

WITH THE UPPER LOW BEGINNING TO APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...SHOULD SEE THE CLOUDS THICKEN A LITTLE AND THE CHANCE FOR
AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. FOR NOW
HAVE HELD THE CHANCES TO THE SE OF THE PATH OF THE SHORTWAVE...BUT
IF THE MOISTURE IS A LITTLE MORE ABUNDANT COULD SEE SHOWERS REACH
ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE I-85 CORRIDOR. FOR TEMPERATURES...SHOULD
SEE A MILDER NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT ...BUT HELD TEMPERATURES DOWN A
FEW DEGREES FROM SUNDAYS HIGHS ON MONDAY WITH READINGS MORE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY
BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A WEAK
TROUGH IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH THE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE
SERN US. THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM TS
ERIKA...OR ITS REMNANTS AT THAT TIME. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS
SHOWS THE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID-
ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED S OF THE REGION. GIVEN THIS...FORECAST POPS WILL BE BELOW
15%. BEYOND THAT THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY. IF THE MID-LEVEL HIGH
CENTER RETREATS FAR ENOUGH N SOME OF THIS MOISTURE COULD SPREAD INTO
THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...IF THE HIGH REMAINS OVERHEAD
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE REGION. 20-30% POPS HAVE BEEN
INTRODUCED MAINLY INTO FRIDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS UNCERTAINTY. WARM
AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THROUGH THE WEEK WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...WITH MID 80S AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY FORECAST HIGHS DROP INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S...WITH LOW 80S AT THE BEACHES. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY VFR CONDS. KEPT FOG OUT
OF THE FCST BUT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER TEMPO MVFR FOR THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AT SBY FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE. GENERALLY THE MOS
FCSTS HAVE BEEN OVERDONE WITH FOG THERE IN RECENT WEEKS.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY AND VFR CONDS WITH WINDS AOB 10 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE A THREAT
FOR PATCHY FOG EACH MORNING NEAR SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THIS IS PRODUCING A N-NE WIND ACROSS THE AREA...WITH SPEEDS OF 5-
10KT (10-15KT S OF THE VA/NC BORDER). THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE SATURDAY. THE WIND
GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO E-SE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON (ALTHOUGH NE WILL
LIKELY PERSIST S OF THE VA/NC BORDER) WITH SPEEDS REMAINING AOB 10-
15KT. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY...BEFORE THE FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMES SOUTHERLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH WIND SPEEDS NO HIGHER THAN 10-15KT. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED
AT 3-4FT OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE...SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 2-3FT...WITH 1-2 FT WAVES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS
NEAR TERM...ESS
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ




000
FXUS61 KRNK 282326
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
726 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND
REMAIN ABOUT OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...RESULTING
IN MORE DIURNAL NATURE SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM EDT FRIDAY...

JUST A FEW WEAK ECHOES ON RADAR EARLY THIS EVENING NEAR BLAND AND
MERCER COUNTY. NOT MUCH VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT TO THE CU...SO A
LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE IS ALL THAT WILL OCCUR IF THAT...AND
REALLY NOT SEEING ENOUGH TO WARRANT MORE THAN 15 POPS FOR ANOTHER
HOUR OR SO.

OTHERWISE...NO TREMENDOUS CHANGES TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST
EXCEPT UPDATING TEMPS AND SKY COVER TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT
CONDITIONS AND WILL BLEND TO THE LATE EVENING OFFICIAL FORECAST.
EXPECT A SCT/BKN CU FIELD TO FLATTEN OUT AND MOST SHOULD STAY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY THOUGH MORE CLOUDS MAY LINGER INTO THE
MOUNTAINS OF SE WV INTO THE ALLEGHANYS TIL EARLY SAT.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE DRIVING OUR WEATHER INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC SHORT WAVE ENERGY
SLIDING BY WELL TO OUR NORTH. SOME GRADUAL CLEARING LATE AND
VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. SATURDAY WILL HAVE A SIMILAR
FLAVOR WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEST OF THE RIDGE. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE AROUND 60 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WITH MIDDLE 50S WEST
OF THE RIDGE. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S EAST TO
UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT FRIDAY...

RIDGING BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
GIVING WAY TO AN UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A PLUME OF DEEPER
MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TO BE PULLED NORTHWARD ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY AIDING LIFT ALONG WITH
HEATING.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BEST FOCUS IN AN ARC ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH BETTER INSTABILITY...DIFFLUENCE AND THETA-E RIGHT ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES ESPECIALLY LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. HOWEVER
THIS AGAIN WITHIN AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ENHANCED VIA WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SO EXPECTING MORE SCATTERED NATURE
COVERAGE AT THIS POINT. THUS HOLDING OFF ON GOING MUCH MORE THAN MID
CHANCE POPS...MAINLY BLUE RIDGE WEST FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO LATE
MONDAY...WITH HIGHEST ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A MOIST/WEAKLY VEERED PROFILE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE A BIT LESS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...APPEARS
SHOWERS MORE ISOLATED SO ONLY KEEPING A 20ISH POP OUT EAST FOR NOW.

WARMING 85H TEMPS SUPPORT RATHER WARM TEMPS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHEN TEMPS MAY GET CLOSE TO 90 PIEDMONT PENDING
DEGREE OF CLOUDS. OTHERWISE BECOMING MORE MUGGY GIVEN INCREASING
DEWPOINTS...AND HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S WITH SOME 70S POSSIBLE FAR WEST
ESPECIALLY IF SHOWERS ARE MORE WIDESPREAD SUNDAY/MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM EDT FRIDAY...

OVERALL PERSISTENCE FORECAST AT LEAST EARLY ON AS UPPER RIDGING
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING WAVE ALOFT AND
IN INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WELL NORTH OF ERIKA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN TREND OF DAILY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE/EXPANSE FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY GIVEN BETTER PWATS/MOISTURE AND SLIGHT COOLING
ALOFT. HOWEVER THINK LOW/MEDIUM CHANCE POPS CONFINED MAINLY ALONG/WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE PER OROGRAPHICS...AND MORE ISOLATED ELSEWHERE
ESPECIALLY GIVEN MOISTURE OVER TOP A LINGERING SURFACE RIDGE. THUS
FOLLOWED CLOSER TO TRENDS FROM WPC WITH A GRADUAL BOOST IN POPS EACH
DAY BUT LITTLE DURING THE OVERNIGHTS INTO THURSDAY. THINGS BECOME MORE
UNCERTAIN BY DAY7 WITH MODELS LOWERING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
AND FROM THE NE WITH A POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR COOL FRONT. THIS
COULD HELP FOCUS MOISTURE GIVEN A BETTER EASTERLY TRAJECTORY TO THE
NORTH OF ERIKA OR ITS REMNANTS ON FRIDAY. THEREFORE GOING WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCE POPS PER POTENTIAL TROPICAL TYPE PWATS OVER THE AREA
DURING HEATING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE IN DAILY TEMPS GIVEN SUCH A HUMID/WARM
AIRMASS...SUPPORTING HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S EXCEPT
PERHAPS A BIT COOLER FRIDAY PENDING CLOUDS/SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 720 PM EDT FRIDAY...

REALLY NOT SEEING MUCH HINDRANCE TO AVIATION THIS PERIOD. WILL SEE
THE SCT/BKN CU EARLY THIS EVENING FLATTEN OUT TO STRATOCU
OVERNIGHT AND MAY KEEP BLF/LWB/BCB SCT V BKN BUT AT 4-6KFT.

LOOKING AT THE MINIMAL THREAT OF GROUND FOG AT BCB/LWB SO KEPT THE
TEMPO GROUPS IN FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL LEAD
TO A PERSISTENCE FORECAST. ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF AFTER DAYBREAK
TOMORROW AND EXPECT SCT/V/BKN VFR CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE BUT NOT MUCH
COVERAGE TO HAVE IN THE TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
AS OF 130 PM EDT FRIDAY...

EXPECT A MAINLY VFR FORECAST INTO SUNDAY. MOISTURE GRADUALLY
INCREASES...WHICH WILL RAISE OUR CHANCES FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL GIVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME
FRAME. GENERALLY EXPECT THE BEST CHANCES FOR MVFR/IFR TO BE LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING DUE TO FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT FROM THE
BLUE RIDGE WEST ESPECIALLY AT KLWB/KBCB.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...MBS/WP
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...MBS/WP



000
FXUS61 KRNK 282326
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
726 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND
REMAIN ABOUT OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...RESULTING
IN MORE DIURNAL NATURE SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM EDT FRIDAY...

JUST A FEW WEAK ECHOES ON RADAR EARLY THIS EVENING NEAR BLAND AND
MERCER COUNTY. NOT MUCH VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT TO THE CU...SO A
LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE IS ALL THAT WILL OCCUR IF THAT...AND
REALLY NOT SEEING ENOUGH TO WARRANT MORE THAN 15 POPS FOR ANOTHER
HOUR OR SO.

OTHERWISE...NO TREMENDOUS CHANGES TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST
EXCEPT UPDATING TEMPS AND SKY COVER TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT
CONDITIONS AND WILL BLEND TO THE LATE EVENING OFFICIAL FORECAST.
EXPECT A SCT/BKN CU FIELD TO FLATTEN OUT AND MOST SHOULD STAY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY THOUGH MORE CLOUDS MAY LINGER INTO THE
MOUNTAINS OF SE WV INTO THE ALLEGHANYS TIL EARLY SAT.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE DRIVING OUR WEATHER INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC SHORT WAVE ENERGY
SLIDING BY WELL TO OUR NORTH. SOME GRADUAL CLEARING LATE AND
VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. SATURDAY WILL HAVE A SIMILAR
FLAVOR WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEST OF THE RIDGE. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE AROUND 60 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WITH MIDDLE 50S WEST
OF THE RIDGE. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S EAST TO
UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT FRIDAY...

RIDGING BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
GIVING WAY TO AN UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A PLUME OF DEEPER
MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TO BE PULLED NORTHWARD ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY AIDING LIFT ALONG WITH
HEATING.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BEST FOCUS IN AN ARC ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH BETTER INSTABILITY...DIFFLUENCE AND THETA-E RIGHT ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES ESPECIALLY LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. HOWEVER
THIS AGAIN WITHIN AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ENHANCED VIA WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SO EXPECTING MORE SCATTERED NATURE
COVERAGE AT THIS POINT. THUS HOLDING OFF ON GOING MUCH MORE THAN MID
CHANCE POPS...MAINLY BLUE RIDGE WEST FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO LATE
MONDAY...WITH HIGHEST ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A MOIST/WEAKLY VEERED PROFILE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE A BIT LESS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...APPEARS
SHOWERS MORE ISOLATED SO ONLY KEEPING A 20ISH POP OUT EAST FOR NOW.

WARMING 85H TEMPS SUPPORT RATHER WARM TEMPS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHEN TEMPS MAY GET CLOSE TO 90 PIEDMONT PENDING
DEGREE OF CLOUDS. OTHERWISE BECOMING MORE MUGGY GIVEN INCREASING
DEWPOINTS...AND HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S WITH SOME 70S POSSIBLE FAR WEST
ESPECIALLY IF SHOWERS ARE MORE WIDESPREAD SUNDAY/MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM EDT FRIDAY...

OVERALL PERSISTENCE FORECAST AT LEAST EARLY ON AS UPPER RIDGING
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING WAVE ALOFT AND
IN INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WELL NORTH OF ERIKA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN TREND OF DAILY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE/EXPANSE FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY GIVEN BETTER PWATS/MOISTURE AND SLIGHT COOLING
ALOFT. HOWEVER THINK LOW/MEDIUM CHANCE POPS CONFINED MAINLY ALONG/WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE PER OROGRAPHICS...AND MORE ISOLATED ELSEWHERE
ESPECIALLY GIVEN MOISTURE OVER TOP A LINGERING SURFACE RIDGE. THUS
FOLLOWED CLOSER TO TRENDS FROM WPC WITH A GRADUAL BOOST IN POPS EACH
DAY BUT LITTLE DURING THE OVERNIGHTS INTO THURSDAY. THINGS BECOME MORE
UNCERTAIN BY DAY7 WITH MODELS LOWERING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
AND FROM THE NE WITH A POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR COOL FRONT. THIS
COULD HELP FOCUS MOISTURE GIVEN A BETTER EASTERLY TRAJECTORY TO THE
NORTH OF ERIKA OR ITS REMNANTS ON FRIDAY. THEREFORE GOING WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCE POPS PER POTENTIAL TROPICAL TYPE PWATS OVER THE AREA
DURING HEATING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE IN DAILY TEMPS GIVEN SUCH A HUMID/WARM
AIRMASS...SUPPORTING HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S EXCEPT
PERHAPS A BIT COOLER FRIDAY PENDING CLOUDS/SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 720 PM EDT FRIDAY...

REALLY NOT SEEING MUCH HINDRANCE TO AVIATION THIS PERIOD. WILL SEE
THE SCT/BKN CU EARLY THIS EVENING FLATTEN OUT TO STRATOCU
OVERNIGHT AND MAY KEEP BLF/LWB/BCB SCT V BKN BUT AT 4-6KFT.

LOOKING AT THE MINIMAL THREAT OF GROUND FOG AT BCB/LWB SO KEPT THE
TEMPO GROUPS IN FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL LEAD
TO A PERSISTENCE FORECAST. ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF AFTER DAYBREAK
TOMORROW AND EXPECT SCT/V/BKN VFR CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE BUT NOT MUCH
COVERAGE TO HAVE IN THE TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
AS OF 130 PM EDT FRIDAY...

EXPECT A MAINLY VFR FORECAST INTO SUNDAY. MOISTURE GRADUALLY
INCREASES...WHICH WILL RAISE OUR CHANCES FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL GIVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME
FRAME. GENERALLY EXPECT THE BEST CHANCES FOR MVFR/IFR TO BE LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING DUE TO FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT FROM THE
BLUE RIDGE WEST ESPECIALLY AT KLWB/KBCB.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...MBS/WP
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...MBS/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 282326
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
726 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND
REMAIN ABOUT OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...RESULTING
IN MORE DIURNAL NATURE SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM EDT FRIDAY...

JUST A FEW WEAK ECHOES ON RADAR EARLY THIS EVENING NEAR BLAND AND
MERCER COUNTY. NOT MUCH VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT TO THE CU...SO A
LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE IS ALL THAT WILL OCCUR IF THAT...AND
REALLY NOT SEEING ENOUGH TO WARRANT MORE THAN 15 POPS FOR ANOTHER
HOUR OR SO.

OTHERWISE...NO TREMENDOUS CHANGES TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST
EXCEPT UPDATING TEMPS AND SKY COVER TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT
CONDITIONS AND WILL BLEND TO THE LATE EVENING OFFICIAL FORECAST.
EXPECT A SCT/BKN CU FIELD TO FLATTEN OUT AND MOST SHOULD STAY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY THOUGH MORE CLOUDS MAY LINGER INTO THE
MOUNTAINS OF SE WV INTO THE ALLEGHANYS TIL EARLY SAT.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE DRIVING OUR WEATHER INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC SHORT WAVE ENERGY
SLIDING BY WELL TO OUR NORTH. SOME GRADUAL CLEARING LATE AND
VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. SATURDAY WILL HAVE A SIMILAR
FLAVOR WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEST OF THE RIDGE. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE AROUND 60 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WITH MIDDLE 50S WEST
OF THE RIDGE. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S EAST TO
UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT FRIDAY...

RIDGING BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
GIVING WAY TO AN UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A PLUME OF DEEPER
MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TO BE PULLED NORTHWARD ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY AIDING LIFT ALONG WITH
HEATING.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BEST FOCUS IN AN ARC ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH BETTER INSTABILITY...DIFFLUENCE AND THETA-E RIGHT ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES ESPECIALLY LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. HOWEVER
THIS AGAIN WITHIN AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ENHANCED VIA WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SO EXPECTING MORE SCATTERED NATURE
COVERAGE AT THIS POINT. THUS HOLDING OFF ON GOING MUCH MORE THAN MID
CHANCE POPS...MAINLY BLUE RIDGE WEST FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO LATE
MONDAY...WITH HIGHEST ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A MOIST/WEAKLY VEERED PROFILE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE A BIT LESS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...APPEARS
SHOWERS MORE ISOLATED SO ONLY KEEPING A 20ISH POP OUT EAST FOR NOW.

WARMING 85H TEMPS SUPPORT RATHER WARM TEMPS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHEN TEMPS MAY GET CLOSE TO 90 PIEDMONT PENDING
DEGREE OF CLOUDS. OTHERWISE BECOMING MORE MUGGY GIVEN INCREASING
DEWPOINTS...AND HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S WITH SOME 70S POSSIBLE FAR WEST
ESPECIALLY IF SHOWERS ARE MORE WIDESPREAD SUNDAY/MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM EDT FRIDAY...

OVERALL PERSISTENCE FORECAST AT LEAST EARLY ON AS UPPER RIDGING
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING WAVE ALOFT AND
IN INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WELL NORTH OF ERIKA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN TREND OF DAILY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE/EXPANSE FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY GIVEN BETTER PWATS/MOISTURE AND SLIGHT COOLING
ALOFT. HOWEVER THINK LOW/MEDIUM CHANCE POPS CONFINED MAINLY ALONG/WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE PER OROGRAPHICS...AND MORE ISOLATED ELSEWHERE
ESPECIALLY GIVEN MOISTURE OVER TOP A LINGERING SURFACE RIDGE. THUS
FOLLOWED CLOSER TO TRENDS FROM WPC WITH A GRADUAL BOOST IN POPS EACH
DAY BUT LITTLE DURING THE OVERNIGHTS INTO THURSDAY. THINGS BECOME MORE
UNCERTAIN BY DAY7 WITH MODELS LOWERING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
AND FROM THE NE WITH A POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR COOL FRONT. THIS
COULD HELP FOCUS MOISTURE GIVEN A BETTER EASTERLY TRAJECTORY TO THE
NORTH OF ERIKA OR ITS REMNANTS ON FRIDAY. THEREFORE GOING WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCE POPS PER POTENTIAL TROPICAL TYPE PWATS OVER THE AREA
DURING HEATING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE IN DAILY TEMPS GIVEN SUCH A HUMID/WARM
AIRMASS...SUPPORTING HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S EXCEPT
PERHAPS A BIT COOLER FRIDAY PENDING CLOUDS/SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 720 PM EDT FRIDAY...

REALLY NOT SEEING MUCH HINDRANCE TO AVIATION THIS PERIOD. WILL SEE
THE SCT/BKN CU EARLY THIS EVENING FLATTEN OUT TO STRATOCU
OVERNIGHT AND MAY KEEP BLF/LWB/BCB SCT V BKN BUT AT 4-6KFT.

LOOKING AT THE MINIMAL THREAT OF GROUND FOG AT BCB/LWB SO KEPT THE
TEMPO GROUPS IN FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL LEAD
TO A PERSISTENCE FORECAST. ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF AFTER DAYBREAK
TOMORROW AND EXPECT SCT/V/BKN VFR CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE BUT NOT MUCH
COVERAGE TO HAVE IN THE TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
AS OF 130 PM EDT FRIDAY...

EXPECT A MAINLY VFR FORECAST INTO SUNDAY. MOISTURE GRADUALLY
INCREASES...WHICH WILL RAISE OUR CHANCES FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL GIVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME
FRAME. GENERALLY EXPECT THE BEST CHANCES FOR MVFR/IFR TO BE LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING DUE TO FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT FROM THE
BLUE RIDGE WEST ESPECIALLY AT KLWB/KBCB.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...MBS/WP
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...MBS/WP



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 282000
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
400 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VERY QUIET WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE....CENTERED OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON...IS PROVIDING DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC BY SATURDAY EVENING...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE QUIET WEATHER. THE CU OVER THE AREA SHOULD DISSIPATE AS
THE SUNSETS TONIGHT AND CONDITIONS SHOULD BE GOOD AGAIN FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING. BASED ON LAST NIGHT...HAVE GONE UNDER THE
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS WITH READINGS AGAIN SEEING SOME UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S READINGS AWAY FROM THE COAST.

THE MODELS SHOW SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TRYING TO SLIDE OVER THE
AREA ON SATURDAY SO HAVE BUMPED UP THE SKY COVER A BIT...BUT
EXPECT THAT THIS CIRRUS WILL BE PRETTY THIN SO SHOULD STILL SEE
LOTS OF SUN. FOR HIGHS GENERALLY WENT NEAR TO OR JUST A DEGREE
ABOVE TODAYS HIGHS...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY LOSES ITS GRIP ON THE REGIONS
WEATHER ON SUNDAY...BUT THE FRONT THAT IS STALL OFF THE SE COAST
DOES NOT GET MUCH OF A PUSH TO COME BACK NORTH AND SLOWLY
DISSIPATES. HOWEVER...THE MODELS DO SHOW AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LIFTING NORTHEAST AND
INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS FEATURE MAY BE ENOUGH
TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA
WERE THE MOISTURE IS MORE PLENTIFUL.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...CONTINUES THE TREND OF THE DRY WEATHER WITH
LOTS OF CLEAR SKY. BUT WITH SOME CIRRUS AROUND...STAYED CLOSE TO
THE MOS GUIDANCE AS COOLING CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE AS GOOD AS THE
LAST FEW NIGHTS. ON SUNDAY...KEPT THE WEATHER DRY BUT WITH THE
FLOW BEGINNING TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY...SHOULD SEE HUMIDITY BEGIN
TO INCREASE WITH HIGHS GETTING BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90
DEGREES.

WITH THE UPPER LOW BEGINNING TO APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...SHOULD SEE THE CLOUDS THICKEN A LITTLE AND THE CHANCE FOR
AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. FOR NOW
HAVE HELD THE CHANCES TO THE SE OF THE PATH OF THE SHORTWAVE...BUT
IF THE MOISTURE IS A LITTLE MORE ABUNDANT COULD SEE SHOWERS REACH
ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE I-85 CORRIDOR. FOR TEMPERATURES...SHOULD
SEE A MILDER NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT ...BUT HELD TEMPERATURES DOWN A
FEW DEGREES FROM SUNDAYS HIGHS ON MONDAY WITH READINGS MORE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY
BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A WEAK
TROUGH IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH THE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE
SERN US. THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM TS
ERIKA...OR ITS REMNANTS AT THAT TIME. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS
SHOWS THE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID-
ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED S OF THE REGION. GIVEN THIS...FORECAST POPS WILL BE BELOW
15%. BEYOND THAT THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY. IF THE MID-LEVEL HIGH
CENTER RETREATS FAR ENOUGH N SOME OF THIS MOISTURE COULD SPREAD INTO
THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...IF THE HIGH REMAINS OVERHEAD
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE REGION. 20-30% POPS HAVE BEEN
INTRODUCED MAINLY INTO FRIDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS UNCERTAINTY. WARM
AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THROUGH THE WEEK WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...WITH MID 80S AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY FORECAST HIGHS DROP INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S...WITH LOW 80S AT THE BEACHES. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES BUILDING INTO THE
REGION. SCT/BKN HI CLOUDS ACRS FAR SE VA/NE NC...MAINLY SKC TO
SCT ELSEWHERE. NE TO SE WINDS THIS AFTN SHIFTING TO SE-SW SAT
MORNING WITH SPDS GENERALLY 10KT OR LESS.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL NEAR/JUST N/E OF THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE WKND...WITH GENLY DRY/VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING AND WINDS TO AVG 10 KT OR LESS. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY
EARLY AM FOG EACH DAY SAT-MON.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THIS IS PRODUCING A N-NE WIND ACROSS THE AREA...WITH SPEEDS OF 5-
10KT (10-15KT S OF THE VA/NC BORDER). THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE SATURDAY. THE WIND
GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO E-SE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON (ALTHOUGH NE WILL
LIKELY PERSIST S OF THE VA/NC BORDER) WITH SPEEDS REMAINING AOB 10-
15KT. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY...BEFORE THE FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMES SOUTHERLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH WIND SPEEDS NO HIGHER THAN 10-15KT. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED
AT 3-4FT OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE...SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 2-3FT...WITH 1-2 FT WAVES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS
NEAR TERM...ESS
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LKB/JEF
MARINE...AJZ



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 282000
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
400 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VERY QUIET WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE....CENTERED OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON...IS PROVIDING DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC BY SATURDAY EVENING...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE QUIET WEATHER. THE CU OVER THE AREA SHOULD DISSIPATE AS
THE SUNSETS TONIGHT AND CONDITIONS SHOULD BE GOOD AGAIN FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING. BASED ON LAST NIGHT...HAVE GONE UNDER THE
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS WITH READINGS AGAIN SEEING SOME UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S READINGS AWAY FROM THE COAST.

THE MODELS SHOW SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TRYING TO SLIDE OVER THE
AREA ON SATURDAY SO HAVE BUMPED UP THE SKY COVER A BIT...BUT
EXPECT THAT THIS CIRRUS WILL BE PRETTY THIN SO SHOULD STILL SEE
LOTS OF SUN. FOR HIGHS GENERALLY WENT NEAR TO OR JUST A DEGREE
ABOVE TODAYS HIGHS...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY LOSES ITS GRIP ON THE REGIONS
WEATHER ON SUNDAY...BUT THE FRONT THAT IS STALL OFF THE SE COAST
DOES NOT GET MUCH OF A PUSH TO COME BACK NORTH AND SLOWLY
DISSIPATES. HOWEVER...THE MODELS DO SHOW AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LIFTING NORTHEAST AND
INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS FEATURE MAY BE ENOUGH
TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA
WERE THE MOISTURE IS MORE PLENTIFUL.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...CONTINUES THE TREND OF THE DRY WEATHER WITH
LOTS OF CLEAR SKY. BUT WITH SOME CIRRUS AROUND...STAYED CLOSE TO
THE MOS GUIDANCE AS COOLING CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE AS GOOD AS THE
LAST FEW NIGHTS. ON SUNDAY...KEPT THE WEATHER DRY BUT WITH THE
FLOW BEGINNING TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY...SHOULD SEE HUMIDITY BEGIN
TO INCREASE WITH HIGHS GETTING BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90
DEGREES.

WITH THE UPPER LOW BEGINNING TO APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...SHOULD SEE THE CLOUDS THICKEN A LITTLE AND THE CHANCE FOR
AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. FOR NOW
HAVE HELD THE CHANCES TO THE SE OF THE PATH OF THE SHORTWAVE...BUT
IF THE MOISTURE IS A LITTLE MORE ABUNDANT COULD SEE SHOWERS REACH
ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE I-85 CORRIDOR. FOR TEMPERATURES...SHOULD
SEE A MILDER NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT ...BUT HELD TEMPERATURES DOWN A
FEW DEGREES FROM SUNDAYS HIGHS ON MONDAY WITH READINGS MORE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY
BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A WEAK
TROUGH IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH THE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE
SERN US. THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM TS
ERIKA...OR ITS REMNANTS AT THAT TIME. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS
SHOWS THE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID-
ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED S OF THE REGION. GIVEN THIS...FORECAST POPS WILL BE BELOW
15%. BEYOND THAT THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY. IF THE MID-LEVEL HIGH
CENTER RETREATS FAR ENOUGH N SOME OF THIS MOISTURE COULD SPREAD INTO
THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...IF THE HIGH REMAINS OVERHEAD
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE REGION. 20-30% POPS HAVE BEEN
INTRODUCED MAINLY INTO FRIDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS UNCERTAINTY. WARM
AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THROUGH THE WEEK WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...WITH MID 80S AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY FORECAST HIGHS DROP INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S...WITH LOW 80S AT THE BEACHES. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES BUILDING INTO THE
REGION. SCT/BKN HI CLOUDS ACRS FAR SE VA/NE NC...MAINLY SKC TO
SCT ELSEWHERE. NE TO SE WINDS THIS AFTN SHIFTING TO SE-SW SAT
MORNING WITH SPDS GENERALLY 10KT OR LESS.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL NEAR/JUST N/E OF THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE WKND...WITH GENLY DRY/VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING AND WINDS TO AVG 10 KT OR LESS. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY
EARLY AM FOG EACH DAY SAT-MON.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THIS IS PRODUCING A N-NE WIND ACROSS THE AREA...WITH SPEEDS OF 5-
10KT (10-15KT S OF THE VA/NC BORDER). THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE SATURDAY. THE WIND
GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO E-SE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON (ALTHOUGH NE WILL
LIKELY PERSIST S OF THE VA/NC BORDER) WITH SPEEDS REMAINING AOB 10-
15KT. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY...BEFORE THE FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMES SOUTHERLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH WIND SPEEDS NO HIGHER THAN 10-15KT. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED
AT 3-4FT OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE...SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 2-3FT...WITH 1-2 FT WAVES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS
NEAR TERM...ESS
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LKB/JEF
MARINE...AJZ



000
FXUS61 KRNK 281904
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
304 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND
REMAIN ABOUT OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...RESULTING
IN MORE DIURNAL NATURE SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE DRIVING OUR WEATHER INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC SHORT WAVE ENERGY
SLIDING BY WELL TO OUR NORTH. ANY DIURNAL SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL
BE ISOLATED AND INDUCED BY OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS IN TERRAIN WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...WITH ACTIVITY FADING OUT RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. SKIES WILL
CLEAR THIS EVENING EAST OF THE RIDGE...BUT CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH
TONIGHT FROM THE RIDGE WESTWARD WITH SOME GRADUAL CLEARING LATE AND
VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. SATURDAY WILL HAVE A SIMILAR
FLAVOR WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEST OF THE RIDGE. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE AROUND 60 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WITH MIDDLE 50S WEST OF THE
RIDGE. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S EAST TO UPPER
70S/AROUND 80 WEST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT FRIDAY...

RIDGING BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
GIVING WAY TO AN UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A PLUME OF DEEPER
MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TO BE PULLED NORTHWARD ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY AIDING LIFT ALONG WITH
HEATING.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BEST FOCUS IN AN ARC ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH BETTER INSTABILITY...DIFFLUENCE AND THETA-E RIGHT ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES ESPECIALLY LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. HOWEVER
THIS AGAIN WITHIN AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ENHANCED VIA WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SO EXPECTING MORE SCATTERED NATURE
COVERAGE AT THIS POINT. THUS HOLDING OFF ON GOING MUCH MORE THAN MID
CHANCE POPS...MAINLY BLUE RIDGE WEST FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO LATE
MONDAY...WITH HIGHEST ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A MOIST/WEAKLY VEERED PROFILE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE A BIT LESS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...APPEARS
SHOWERS MORE ISOLATED SO ONLY KEEPING A 20ISH POP OUT EAST FOR NOW.

WARMING 85H TEMPS SUPPORT RATHER WARM TEMPS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHEN TEMPS MAY GET CLOSE TO 90 PIEDMONT PENDING
DEGREE OF CLOUDS. OTHERWISE BECOMING MORE MUGGY GIVEN INCREASING
DEWPOINTS...AND HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S WITH SOME 70S POSSIBLE FAR WEST
ESPECIALLY IF SHOWERS ARE MORE WIDESPREAD SUNDAY/MONDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM EDT FRIDAY...

OVERALL PERSISTENCE FORECAST AT LEAST EARLY ON AS UPPER RIDGING
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING WAVE ALOFT AND
IN INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WELL NORTH OF ERIKA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN TREND OF DAILY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE/EXPANSE FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY GIVEN BETTER PWATS/MOISTURE AND SLIGHT COOLING
ALOFT. HOWEVER THINK LOW/MEDIUM CHANCE POPS CONFINED MAINLY ALONG/WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE PER OROGRAPHICS...AND MORE ISOLATED ELSEWHERE
ESPECIALLY GIVEN MOISTURE OVER TOP A LINGERING SURFACE RIDGE. THUS
FOLLOWED CLOSER TO TRENDS FROM WPC WITH A GRADUAL BOOST IN POPS EACH
DAY BUT LITTLE DURING THE OVERNIGHTS INTO THURSDAY. THINGS BECOME MORE
UNCERTAIN BY DAY7 WITH MODELS LOWERING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
AND FROM THE NE WITH A POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR COOL FRONT. THIS
COULD HELP FOCUS MOISTURE GIVEN A BETTER EASTERLY TRAJECTORY TO THE
NORTH OF ERIKA OR ITS REMNANTS ON FRIDAY. THEREFORE GOING WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCE POPS PER POTENTIAL TROPICAL TYPE PWATS OVER THE AREA
DURING HEATING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE IN DAILY TEMPS GIVEN SUCH A HUMID/WARM
AIRMASS...SUPPORTING HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S EXCEPT
PERHAPS A BIT COOLER FRIDAY PENDING CLOUDS/SHOWERS.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT FRIDAY...

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL LEAD
TO A PERSISTENCE FORECAST. EXPECT DIURNALLY FORCED BKN/V/SCT VFR
CEILINGS AT ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND
ISOLATED IN COVERAGE SO WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN TAFS.

INDICATIONS ARE THAT CLOUDS WILL NOT STAY LOCKED IN AFTER SUNSET AS
LAST NIGHT...BUT WILL LINGER CIGS FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST UNTIL THE
04Z/08Z TIME FRAME. THE LINGERING CLOUDS WILL KEEP FOG DEVELOPMENT IN
CHECK...THOUGH DISSIPATION/BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR
DEVELOPMENT LATE. WILL KEEP THINGS TEMPO MVFR AT KBCB AND LIMIT KLWB TO
MEDIUM IFR. EXPECT PATCHY FOG EAST OF THE RIDGE AND KDAN SHOWED SOME
FOG DEVELOPMENT LAST NIGHT SO WILL GO WITH A TEMPO MVFR GROUP TOWARD
DAYBREAK THERE AS WELL. ANY FOG/STRATUS WILL BURN OFF AFTER DAYBREAK
TOMORROW AND EXPECT SCT/V/BKN VFR CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATE IN
THE VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
AS OF 130 PM EDT FRIDAY...

EXPECT A MAINLY VFR FORECAST INTO SUNDAY. MOISTURE GRADUALLY
INCREASES...WHICH WILL INCREASE OUR CHANCES FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL GIVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME. GENERALLY EXPECT
THE BEST CHANCES FOR MVFR/IFR TO BE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING DUE TO FOG
AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST ESPECIALLY AT KLWB/KBCB.
&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...MBS/NF



000
FXUS61 KRNK 281904
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
304 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND
REMAIN ABOUT OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...RESULTING
IN MORE DIURNAL NATURE SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE DRIVING OUR WEATHER INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC SHORT WAVE ENERGY
SLIDING BY WELL TO OUR NORTH. ANY DIURNAL SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL
BE ISOLATED AND INDUCED BY OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS IN TERRAIN WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...WITH ACTIVITY FADING OUT RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. SKIES WILL
CLEAR THIS EVENING EAST OF THE RIDGE...BUT CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH
TONIGHT FROM THE RIDGE WESTWARD WITH SOME GRADUAL CLEARING LATE AND
VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. SATURDAY WILL HAVE A SIMILAR
FLAVOR WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEST OF THE RIDGE. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE AROUND 60 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WITH MIDDLE 50S WEST OF THE
RIDGE. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S EAST TO UPPER
70S/AROUND 80 WEST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT FRIDAY...

RIDGING BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
GIVING WAY TO AN UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A PLUME OF DEEPER
MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TO BE PULLED NORTHWARD ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY AIDING LIFT ALONG WITH
HEATING.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BEST FOCUS IN AN ARC ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH BETTER INSTABILITY...DIFFLUENCE AND THETA-E RIGHT ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES ESPECIALLY LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. HOWEVER
THIS AGAIN WITHIN AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ENHANCED VIA WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SO EXPECTING MORE SCATTERED NATURE
COVERAGE AT THIS POINT. THUS HOLDING OFF ON GOING MUCH MORE THAN MID
CHANCE POPS...MAINLY BLUE RIDGE WEST FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO LATE
MONDAY...WITH HIGHEST ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A MOIST/WEAKLY VEERED PROFILE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE A BIT LESS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...APPEARS
SHOWERS MORE ISOLATED SO ONLY KEEPING A 20ISH POP OUT EAST FOR NOW.

WARMING 85H TEMPS SUPPORT RATHER WARM TEMPS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHEN TEMPS MAY GET CLOSE TO 90 PIEDMONT PENDING
DEGREE OF CLOUDS. OTHERWISE BECOMING MORE MUGGY GIVEN INCREASING
DEWPOINTS...AND HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S WITH SOME 70S POSSIBLE FAR WEST
ESPECIALLY IF SHOWERS ARE MORE WIDESPREAD SUNDAY/MONDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM EDT FRIDAY...

OVERALL PERSISTENCE FORECAST AT LEAST EARLY ON AS UPPER RIDGING
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING WAVE ALOFT AND
IN INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WELL NORTH OF ERIKA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN TREND OF DAILY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE/EXPANSE FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY GIVEN BETTER PWATS/MOISTURE AND SLIGHT COOLING
ALOFT. HOWEVER THINK LOW/MEDIUM CHANCE POPS CONFINED MAINLY ALONG/WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE PER OROGRAPHICS...AND MORE ISOLATED ELSEWHERE
ESPECIALLY GIVEN MOISTURE OVER TOP A LINGERING SURFACE RIDGE. THUS
FOLLOWED CLOSER TO TRENDS FROM WPC WITH A GRADUAL BOOST IN POPS EACH
DAY BUT LITTLE DURING THE OVERNIGHTS INTO THURSDAY. THINGS BECOME MORE
UNCERTAIN BY DAY7 WITH MODELS LOWERING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
AND FROM THE NE WITH A POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR COOL FRONT. THIS
COULD HELP FOCUS MOISTURE GIVEN A BETTER EASTERLY TRAJECTORY TO THE
NORTH OF ERIKA OR ITS REMNANTS ON FRIDAY. THEREFORE GOING WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCE POPS PER POTENTIAL TROPICAL TYPE PWATS OVER THE AREA
DURING HEATING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE IN DAILY TEMPS GIVEN SUCH A HUMID/WARM
AIRMASS...SUPPORTING HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S EXCEPT
PERHAPS A BIT COOLER FRIDAY PENDING CLOUDS/SHOWERS.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT FRIDAY...

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL LEAD
TO A PERSISTENCE FORECAST. EXPECT DIURNALLY FORCED BKN/V/SCT VFR
CEILINGS AT ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND
ISOLATED IN COVERAGE SO WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN TAFS.

INDICATIONS ARE THAT CLOUDS WILL NOT STAY LOCKED IN AFTER SUNSET AS
LAST NIGHT...BUT WILL LINGER CIGS FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST UNTIL THE
04Z/08Z TIME FRAME. THE LINGERING CLOUDS WILL KEEP FOG DEVELOPMENT IN
CHECK...THOUGH DISSIPATION/BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR
DEVELOPMENT LATE. WILL KEEP THINGS TEMPO MVFR AT KBCB AND LIMIT KLWB TO
MEDIUM IFR. EXPECT PATCHY FOG EAST OF THE RIDGE AND KDAN SHOWED SOME
FOG DEVELOPMENT LAST NIGHT SO WILL GO WITH A TEMPO MVFR GROUP TOWARD
DAYBREAK THERE AS WELL. ANY FOG/STRATUS WILL BURN OFF AFTER DAYBREAK
TOMORROW AND EXPECT SCT/V/BKN VFR CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATE IN
THE VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
AS OF 130 PM EDT FRIDAY...

EXPECT A MAINLY VFR FORECAST INTO SUNDAY. MOISTURE GRADUALLY
INCREASES...WHICH WILL INCREASE OUR CHANCES FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL GIVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME. GENERALLY EXPECT
THE BEST CHANCES FOR MVFR/IFR TO BE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING DUE TO FOG
AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST ESPECIALLY AT KLWB/KBCB.
&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...MBS/NF



000
FXUS61 KRNK 281904
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
304 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND
REMAIN ABOUT OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...RESULTING
IN MORE DIURNAL NATURE SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE DRIVING OUR WEATHER INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC SHORT WAVE ENERGY
SLIDING BY WELL TO OUR NORTH. ANY DIURNAL SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL
BE ISOLATED AND INDUCED BY OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS IN TERRAIN WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...WITH ACTIVITY FADING OUT RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. SKIES WILL
CLEAR THIS EVENING EAST OF THE RIDGE...BUT CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH
TONIGHT FROM THE RIDGE WESTWARD WITH SOME GRADUAL CLEARING LATE AND
VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. SATURDAY WILL HAVE A SIMILAR
FLAVOR WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEST OF THE RIDGE. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE AROUND 60 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WITH MIDDLE 50S WEST OF THE
RIDGE. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S EAST TO UPPER
70S/AROUND 80 WEST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT FRIDAY...

RIDGING BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
GIVING WAY TO AN UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A PLUME OF DEEPER
MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TO BE PULLED NORTHWARD ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY AIDING LIFT ALONG WITH
HEATING.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BEST FOCUS IN AN ARC ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH BETTER INSTABILITY...DIFFLUENCE AND THETA-E RIGHT ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES ESPECIALLY LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. HOWEVER
THIS AGAIN WITHIN AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ENHANCED VIA WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SO EXPECTING MORE SCATTERED NATURE
COVERAGE AT THIS POINT. THUS HOLDING OFF ON GOING MUCH MORE THAN MID
CHANCE POPS...MAINLY BLUE RIDGE WEST FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO LATE
MONDAY...WITH HIGHEST ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A MOIST/WEAKLY VEERED PROFILE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE A BIT LESS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...APPEARS
SHOWERS MORE ISOLATED SO ONLY KEEPING A 20ISH POP OUT EAST FOR NOW.

WARMING 85H TEMPS SUPPORT RATHER WARM TEMPS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHEN TEMPS MAY GET CLOSE TO 90 PIEDMONT PENDING
DEGREE OF CLOUDS. OTHERWISE BECOMING MORE MUGGY GIVEN INCREASING
DEWPOINTS...AND HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S WITH SOME 70S POSSIBLE FAR WEST
ESPECIALLY IF SHOWERS ARE MORE WIDESPREAD SUNDAY/MONDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM EDT FRIDAY...

OVERALL PERSISTENCE FORECAST AT LEAST EARLY ON AS UPPER RIDGING
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING WAVE ALOFT AND
IN INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WELL NORTH OF ERIKA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN TREND OF DAILY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE/EXPANSE FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY GIVEN BETTER PWATS/MOISTURE AND SLIGHT COOLING
ALOFT. HOWEVER THINK LOW/MEDIUM CHANCE POPS CONFINED MAINLY ALONG/WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE PER OROGRAPHICS...AND MORE ISOLATED ELSEWHERE
ESPECIALLY GIVEN MOISTURE OVER TOP A LINGERING SURFACE RIDGE. THUS
FOLLOWED CLOSER TO TRENDS FROM WPC WITH A GRADUAL BOOST IN POPS EACH
DAY BUT LITTLE DURING THE OVERNIGHTS INTO THURSDAY. THINGS BECOME MORE
UNCERTAIN BY DAY7 WITH MODELS LOWERING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
AND FROM THE NE WITH A POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR COOL FRONT. THIS
COULD HELP FOCUS MOISTURE GIVEN A BETTER EASTERLY TRAJECTORY TO THE
NORTH OF ERIKA OR ITS REMNANTS ON FRIDAY. THEREFORE GOING WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCE POPS PER POTENTIAL TROPICAL TYPE PWATS OVER THE AREA
DURING HEATING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE IN DAILY TEMPS GIVEN SUCH A HUMID/WARM
AIRMASS...SUPPORTING HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S EXCEPT
PERHAPS A BIT COOLER FRIDAY PENDING CLOUDS/SHOWERS.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT FRIDAY...

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL LEAD
TO A PERSISTENCE FORECAST. EXPECT DIURNALLY FORCED BKN/V/SCT VFR
CEILINGS AT ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND
ISOLATED IN COVERAGE SO WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN TAFS.

INDICATIONS ARE THAT CLOUDS WILL NOT STAY LOCKED IN AFTER SUNSET AS
LAST NIGHT...BUT WILL LINGER CIGS FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST UNTIL THE
04Z/08Z TIME FRAME. THE LINGERING CLOUDS WILL KEEP FOG DEVELOPMENT IN
CHECK...THOUGH DISSIPATION/BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR
DEVELOPMENT LATE. WILL KEEP THINGS TEMPO MVFR AT KBCB AND LIMIT KLWB TO
MEDIUM IFR. EXPECT PATCHY FOG EAST OF THE RIDGE AND KDAN SHOWED SOME
FOG DEVELOPMENT LAST NIGHT SO WILL GO WITH A TEMPO MVFR GROUP TOWARD
DAYBREAK THERE AS WELL. ANY FOG/STRATUS WILL BURN OFF AFTER DAYBREAK
TOMORROW AND EXPECT SCT/V/BKN VFR CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATE IN
THE VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
AS OF 130 PM EDT FRIDAY...

EXPECT A MAINLY VFR FORECAST INTO SUNDAY. MOISTURE GRADUALLY
INCREASES...WHICH WILL INCREASE OUR CHANCES FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL GIVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME. GENERALLY EXPECT
THE BEST CHANCES FOR MVFR/IFR TO BE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING DUE TO FOG
AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST ESPECIALLY AT KLWB/KBCB.
&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...MBS/NF



000
FXUS61 KRNK 281904
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
304 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND
REMAIN ABOUT OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...RESULTING
IN MORE DIURNAL NATURE SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE DRIVING OUR WEATHER INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC SHORT WAVE ENERGY
SLIDING BY WELL TO OUR NORTH. ANY DIURNAL SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL
BE ISOLATED AND INDUCED BY OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS IN TERRAIN WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...WITH ACTIVITY FADING OUT RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. SKIES WILL
CLEAR THIS EVENING EAST OF THE RIDGE...BUT CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH
TONIGHT FROM THE RIDGE WESTWARD WITH SOME GRADUAL CLEARING LATE AND
VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. SATURDAY WILL HAVE A SIMILAR
FLAVOR WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEST OF THE RIDGE. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE AROUND 60 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WITH MIDDLE 50S WEST OF THE
RIDGE. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S EAST TO UPPER
70S/AROUND 80 WEST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT FRIDAY...

RIDGING BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
GIVING WAY TO AN UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A PLUME OF DEEPER
MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TO BE PULLED NORTHWARD ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY AIDING LIFT ALONG WITH
HEATING.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BEST FOCUS IN AN ARC ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH BETTER INSTABILITY...DIFFLUENCE AND THETA-E RIGHT ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES ESPECIALLY LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. HOWEVER
THIS AGAIN WITHIN AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ENHANCED VIA WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SO EXPECTING MORE SCATTERED NATURE
COVERAGE AT THIS POINT. THUS HOLDING OFF ON GOING MUCH MORE THAN MID
CHANCE POPS...MAINLY BLUE RIDGE WEST FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO LATE
MONDAY...WITH HIGHEST ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A MOIST/WEAKLY VEERED PROFILE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE A BIT LESS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...APPEARS
SHOWERS MORE ISOLATED SO ONLY KEEPING A 20ISH POP OUT EAST FOR NOW.

WARMING 85H TEMPS SUPPORT RATHER WARM TEMPS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHEN TEMPS MAY GET CLOSE TO 90 PIEDMONT PENDING
DEGREE OF CLOUDS. OTHERWISE BECOMING MORE MUGGY GIVEN INCREASING
DEWPOINTS...AND HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S WITH SOME 70S POSSIBLE FAR WEST
ESPECIALLY IF SHOWERS ARE MORE WIDESPREAD SUNDAY/MONDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM EDT FRIDAY...

OVERALL PERSISTENCE FORECAST AT LEAST EARLY ON AS UPPER RIDGING
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING WAVE ALOFT AND
IN INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WELL NORTH OF ERIKA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN TREND OF DAILY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE/EXPANSE FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY GIVEN BETTER PWATS/MOISTURE AND SLIGHT COOLING
ALOFT. HOWEVER THINK LOW/MEDIUM CHANCE POPS CONFINED MAINLY ALONG/WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE PER OROGRAPHICS...AND MORE ISOLATED ELSEWHERE
ESPECIALLY GIVEN MOISTURE OVER TOP A LINGERING SURFACE RIDGE. THUS
FOLLOWED CLOSER TO TRENDS FROM WPC WITH A GRADUAL BOOST IN POPS EACH
DAY BUT LITTLE DURING THE OVERNIGHTS INTO THURSDAY. THINGS BECOME MORE
UNCERTAIN BY DAY7 WITH MODELS LOWERING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
AND FROM THE NE WITH A POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR COOL FRONT. THIS
COULD HELP FOCUS MOISTURE GIVEN A BETTER EASTERLY TRAJECTORY TO THE
NORTH OF ERIKA OR ITS REMNANTS ON FRIDAY. THEREFORE GOING WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCE POPS PER POTENTIAL TROPICAL TYPE PWATS OVER THE AREA
DURING HEATING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE IN DAILY TEMPS GIVEN SUCH A HUMID/WARM
AIRMASS...SUPPORTING HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S EXCEPT
PERHAPS A BIT COOLER FRIDAY PENDING CLOUDS/SHOWERS.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT FRIDAY...

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL LEAD
TO A PERSISTENCE FORECAST. EXPECT DIURNALLY FORCED BKN/V/SCT VFR
CEILINGS AT ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND
ISOLATED IN COVERAGE SO WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN TAFS.

INDICATIONS ARE THAT CLOUDS WILL NOT STAY LOCKED IN AFTER SUNSET AS
LAST NIGHT...BUT WILL LINGER CIGS FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST UNTIL THE
04Z/08Z TIME FRAME. THE LINGERING CLOUDS WILL KEEP FOG DEVELOPMENT IN
CHECK...THOUGH DISSIPATION/BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR
DEVELOPMENT LATE. WILL KEEP THINGS TEMPO MVFR AT KBCB AND LIMIT KLWB TO
MEDIUM IFR. EXPECT PATCHY FOG EAST OF THE RIDGE AND KDAN SHOWED SOME
FOG DEVELOPMENT LAST NIGHT SO WILL GO WITH A TEMPO MVFR GROUP TOWARD
DAYBREAK THERE AS WELL. ANY FOG/STRATUS WILL BURN OFF AFTER DAYBREAK
TOMORROW AND EXPECT SCT/V/BKN VFR CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATE IN
THE VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
AS OF 130 PM EDT FRIDAY...

EXPECT A MAINLY VFR FORECAST INTO SUNDAY. MOISTURE GRADUALLY
INCREASES...WHICH WILL INCREASE OUR CHANCES FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL GIVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME. GENERALLY EXPECT
THE BEST CHANCES FOR MVFR/IFR TO BE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING DUE TO FOG
AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST ESPECIALLY AT KLWB/KBCB.
&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...MBS/NF



000
FXUS61 KLWX 281853
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
253 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND
THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN PA THIS AFTERNOON.
NEAREST UPPER LEVEL FEATURE OF NOTE IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE
UPPER MS VALLEY. FLAT CU FIELD HAS FORMED AND THINK THE ATMOSPHERE
IS STABLE ENOUGH TO PREVENT CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TONIGHT...SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICAL
VALLEYS/RURAL AREAS. LOWS WILL INCH UP COMPARED TO THURSDAY NIGHT
COINCIDENT WITH DEW POINTS....WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...

THE SFC HIGH INCHES EAST ON SATURDAY. THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL GET SHEARED OUT AND WILL LIKELY HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON THE
LOCAL AREA. LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING ENDS UP JUST EAST OF THE
AREA...WHICH WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BE ESTABLISHED. THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM TO DEVELOP
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS...BUT OVERALL ATMOSPHERE
STILL LOOKS FAIRLY STABLE. HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

WITH DEW POINTS BEGINNING TO RISE BY SATURDAY NIGHT...PATCHY FOG
WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE SOUTH/WEST...ALTHOUGH SOME CIRRUS COULD BEGIN
TO SPILL ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS WILL ALSO BE A LITTLE MORE
MILD...WITH MID 60S COMMON TO AROUND 70 IN THE URBAN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

WX LOOKS TO RMN FAIRLY QUIET TO END THE LAST WKND IN AUG. HIGH
PRES MOVES OFFSHORE..THE NEXT CD FNT IS HUNDREDS OF MILES TO THE
W...AND ERIKA IS BTWN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA. THIS WL LV THE MID
ATLC IN A WARM AIR MASS. HIGHS SUN U80/L90S...SUN NGT MU60S XCPT
L70S ALONG THE BAY/IN CITIES. NO REAL CHG XPCTD FOR MON.

ISOLD CNVTCN SUN-MON WL BE PSBL W/ INCRSG HUMIDITY...PRIMARILY
OVR THE MTNS.

UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF OVER GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY MONDAY WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST TO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND STALLING WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE LOW CENTER THAT FORMS OVER AREA TUESDAY WILL STAY THROUGH
END OF THE PERIOD. SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MEAGER DURING
EARLY HALF OF PERIOD BUT WILL STRENGTHEN DURING LATTER HALF.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. CU FIELD AOA 5KFT MAY BE BKN AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT GENERALLY SCT. HAVE INTRODUCED MVFR BR AT CHO
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW...AND CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT
DEVELOPMENT AT MRB AS WELL. SIMILAR POSSIBILITIES OF BR SATURDAY
NIGHT. LIGHT AND VRB WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL BECOME
PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHERLY SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH SPEEDS WILL BE LESS THAN
10 KT.

VFR CONDS XPCTD SUN/MON. LGT FOG PSBL OVRNGT IAD/MRB/CHO BOTH
NGTS. ISOLD AFTN/EVE TSTMS PSBL BOTH DAYS...PRIMARILY OVR THE
APLCHNS.

&&

.MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL SLIDE EAST SATURDAY AND PROVIDE DRY
WX. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BECOME PREDOMINANTLY
SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY. THIS MAY ALLOW SOME SPEEDS OF UP TO 15 KT
ON THE BAY BY SATURDAY EVENING...BUT SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

WINDS XPCTD TO RMN BLO SCA VALUES SUN AND MON.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...ADS/WOODY!/CEM




000
FXUS61 KLWX 281853
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
253 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND
THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN PA THIS AFTERNOON.
NEAREST UPPER LEVEL FEATURE OF NOTE IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE
UPPER MS VALLEY. FLAT CU FIELD HAS FORMED AND THINK THE ATMOSPHERE
IS STABLE ENOUGH TO PREVENT CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TONIGHT...SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICAL
VALLEYS/RURAL AREAS. LOWS WILL INCH UP COMPARED TO THURSDAY NIGHT
COINCIDENT WITH DEW POINTS....WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...

THE SFC HIGH INCHES EAST ON SATURDAY. THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL GET SHEARED OUT AND WILL LIKELY HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON THE
LOCAL AREA. LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING ENDS UP JUST EAST OF THE
AREA...WHICH WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BE ESTABLISHED. THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM TO DEVELOP
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS...BUT OVERALL ATMOSPHERE
STILL LOOKS FAIRLY STABLE. HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

WITH DEW POINTS BEGINNING TO RISE BY SATURDAY NIGHT...PATCHY FOG
WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE SOUTH/WEST...ALTHOUGH SOME CIRRUS COULD BEGIN
TO SPILL ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS WILL ALSO BE A LITTLE MORE
MILD...WITH MID 60S COMMON TO AROUND 70 IN THE URBAN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

WX LOOKS TO RMN FAIRLY QUIET TO END THE LAST WKND IN AUG. HIGH
PRES MOVES OFFSHORE..THE NEXT CD FNT IS HUNDREDS OF MILES TO THE
W...AND ERIKA IS BTWN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA. THIS WL LV THE MID
ATLC IN A WARM AIR MASS. HIGHS SUN U80/L90S...SUN NGT MU60S XCPT
L70S ALONG THE BAY/IN CITIES. NO REAL CHG XPCTD FOR MON.

ISOLD CNVTCN SUN-MON WL BE PSBL W/ INCRSG HUMIDITY...PRIMARILY
OVR THE MTNS.

UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF OVER GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY MONDAY WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST TO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND STALLING WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE LOW CENTER THAT FORMS OVER AREA TUESDAY WILL STAY THROUGH
END OF THE PERIOD. SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MEAGER DURING
EARLY HALF OF PERIOD BUT WILL STRENGTHEN DURING LATTER HALF.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. CU FIELD AOA 5KFT MAY BE BKN AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT GENERALLY SCT. HAVE INTRODUCED MVFR BR AT CHO
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW...AND CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT
DEVELOPMENT AT MRB AS WELL. SIMILAR POSSIBILITIES OF BR SATURDAY
NIGHT. LIGHT AND VRB WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL BECOME
PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHERLY SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH SPEEDS WILL BE LESS THAN
10 KT.

VFR CONDS XPCTD SUN/MON. LGT FOG PSBL OVRNGT IAD/MRB/CHO BOTH
NGTS. ISOLD AFTN/EVE TSTMS PSBL BOTH DAYS...PRIMARILY OVR THE
APLCHNS.

&&

.MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL SLIDE EAST SATURDAY AND PROVIDE DRY
WX. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BECOME PREDOMINANTLY
SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY. THIS MAY ALLOW SOME SPEEDS OF UP TO 15 KT
ON THE BAY BY SATURDAY EVENING...BUT SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

WINDS XPCTD TO RMN BLO SCA VALUES SUN AND MON.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...ADS/WOODY!/CEM



000
FXUS61 KLWX 281853
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
253 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND
THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN PA THIS AFTERNOON.
NEAREST UPPER LEVEL FEATURE OF NOTE IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE
UPPER MS VALLEY. FLAT CU FIELD HAS FORMED AND THINK THE ATMOSPHERE
IS STABLE ENOUGH TO PREVENT CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TONIGHT...SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICAL
VALLEYS/RURAL AREAS. LOWS WILL INCH UP COMPARED TO THURSDAY NIGHT
COINCIDENT WITH DEW POINTS....WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...

THE SFC HIGH INCHES EAST ON SATURDAY. THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL GET SHEARED OUT AND WILL LIKELY HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON THE
LOCAL AREA. LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING ENDS UP JUST EAST OF THE
AREA...WHICH WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BE ESTABLISHED. THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM TO DEVELOP
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS...BUT OVERALL ATMOSPHERE
STILL LOOKS FAIRLY STABLE. HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

WITH DEW POINTS BEGINNING TO RISE BY SATURDAY NIGHT...PATCHY FOG
WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE SOUTH/WEST...ALTHOUGH SOME CIRRUS COULD BEGIN
TO SPILL ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS WILL ALSO BE A LITTLE MORE
MILD...WITH MID 60S COMMON TO AROUND 70 IN THE URBAN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

WX LOOKS TO RMN FAIRLY QUIET TO END THE LAST WKND IN AUG. HIGH
PRES MOVES OFFSHORE..THE NEXT CD FNT IS HUNDREDS OF MILES TO THE
W...AND ERIKA IS BTWN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA. THIS WL LV THE MID
ATLC IN A WARM AIR MASS. HIGHS SUN U80/L90S...SUN NGT MU60S XCPT
L70S ALONG THE BAY/IN CITIES. NO REAL CHG XPCTD FOR MON.

ISOLD CNVTCN SUN-MON WL BE PSBL W/ INCRSG HUMIDITY...PRIMARILY
OVR THE MTNS.

UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF OVER GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY MONDAY WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST TO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND STALLING WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE LOW CENTER THAT FORMS OVER AREA TUESDAY WILL STAY THROUGH
END OF THE PERIOD. SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MEAGER DURING
EARLY HALF OF PERIOD BUT WILL STRENGTHEN DURING LATTER HALF.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. CU FIELD AOA 5KFT MAY BE BKN AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT GENERALLY SCT. HAVE INTRODUCED MVFR BR AT CHO
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW...AND CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT
DEVELOPMENT AT MRB AS WELL. SIMILAR POSSIBILITIES OF BR SATURDAY
NIGHT. LIGHT AND VRB WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL BECOME
PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHERLY SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH SPEEDS WILL BE LESS THAN
10 KT.

VFR CONDS XPCTD SUN/MON. LGT FOG PSBL OVRNGT IAD/MRB/CHO BOTH
NGTS. ISOLD AFTN/EVE TSTMS PSBL BOTH DAYS...PRIMARILY OVR THE
APLCHNS.

&&

.MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL SLIDE EAST SATURDAY AND PROVIDE DRY
WX. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BECOME PREDOMINANTLY
SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY. THIS MAY ALLOW SOME SPEEDS OF UP TO 15 KT
ON THE BAY BY SATURDAY EVENING...BUT SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

WINDS XPCTD TO RMN BLO SCA VALUES SUN AND MON.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...ADS/WOODY!/CEM




000
FXUS61 KLWX 281853
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
253 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND
THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN PA THIS AFTERNOON.
NEAREST UPPER LEVEL FEATURE OF NOTE IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE
UPPER MS VALLEY. FLAT CU FIELD HAS FORMED AND THINK THE ATMOSPHERE
IS STABLE ENOUGH TO PREVENT CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TONIGHT...SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICAL
VALLEYS/RURAL AREAS. LOWS WILL INCH UP COMPARED TO THURSDAY NIGHT
COINCIDENT WITH DEW POINTS....WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...

THE SFC HIGH INCHES EAST ON SATURDAY. THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL GET SHEARED OUT AND WILL LIKELY HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON THE
LOCAL AREA. LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING ENDS UP JUST EAST OF THE
AREA...WHICH WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BE ESTABLISHED. THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM TO DEVELOP
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS...BUT OVERALL ATMOSPHERE
STILL LOOKS FAIRLY STABLE. HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

WITH DEW POINTS BEGINNING TO RISE BY SATURDAY NIGHT...PATCHY FOG
WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE SOUTH/WEST...ALTHOUGH SOME CIRRUS COULD BEGIN
TO SPILL ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS WILL ALSO BE A LITTLE MORE
MILD...WITH MID 60S COMMON TO AROUND 70 IN THE URBAN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

WX LOOKS TO RMN FAIRLY QUIET TO END THE LAST WKND IN AUG. HIGH
PRES MOVES OFFSHORE..THE NEXT CD FNT IS HUNDREDS OF MILES TO THE
W...AND ERIKA IS BTWN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA. THIS WL LV THE MID
ATLC IN A WARM AIR MASS. HIGHS SUN U80/L90S...SUN NGT MU60S XCPT
L70S ALONG THE BAY/IN CITIES. NO REAL CHG XPCTD FOR MON.

ISOLD CNVTCN SUN-MON WL BE PSBL W/ INCRSG HUMIDITY...PRIMARILY
OVR THE MTNS.

UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF OVER GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY MONDAY WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST TO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND STALLING WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE LOW CENTER THAT FORMS OVER AREA TUESDAY WILL STAY THROUGH
END OF THE PERIOD. SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MEAGER DURING
EARLY HALF OF PERIOD BUT WILL STRENGTHEN DURING LATTER HALF.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. CU FIELD AOA 5KFT MAY BE BKN AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT GENERALLY SCT. HAVE INTRODUCED MVFR BR AT CHO
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW...AND CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT
DEVELOPMENT AT MRB AS WELL. SIMILAR POSSIBILITIES OF BR SATURDAY
NIGHT. LIGHT AND VRB WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL BECOME
PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHERLY SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH SPEEDS WILL BE LESS THAN
10 KT.

VFR CONDS XPCTD SUN/MON. LGT FOG PSBL OVRNGT IAD/MRB/CHO BOTH
NGTS. ISOLD AFTN/EVE TSTMS PSBL BOTH DAYS...PRIMARILY OVR THE
APLCHNS.

&&

.MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL SLIDE EAST SATURDAY AND PROVIDE DRY
WX. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BECOME PREDOMINANTLY
SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY. THIS MAY ALLOW SOME SPEEDS OF UP TO 15 KT
ON THE BAY BY SATURDAY EVENING...BUT SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

WINDS XPCTD TO RMN BLO SCA VALUES SUN AND MON.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...ADS/WOODY!/CEM



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281739
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
139 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES FROM THE NW TODAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
STALLED SE OF THE AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF ALBEMARLE SOUND ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS COASTAL NE NC.
CLOUDS BREAK UP IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES EVERYWHERE THE REST OF TODAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY
NE/ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED AGAIN
TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTN WHEN GUSTS WILL AVERAGE
15-20 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S INLAND...UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S CLOSER
TO THE COAST DUE TO BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRACK NE THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL KEEP THE LOW WELL
OFFSHORE AS IT SKIRTS BY THE NC OUTER BANKS SATURDAY AND THEN OUT
TO SEA BY SUNDAY MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND THE CIRCULATION
MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS ALONG/SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER...
OTHERWISE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE A WARMING
TREND DURING THIS TIME FRAME. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 60S (NEAR 70 AT
THE BEACHES). HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND/
LOW-MID 80S AT THE COAST WITH ONSHORE WINDS PERSISTING. EXPECT
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SATURDAY...AND
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE FROM TROUGHING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST STREAMS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.

WITH THE WEAK SFC LOW OFF THE COAST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER
OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY RATHER THAN SLIDE OFF THE COAST AS
PREVIOUS DAYS OF MODEL RUNS HAD DEPICTED. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS
KEEP A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
MOVING UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE TN VALLEY. THIS SET UP
WILL FAVOR A RETURN TO SW WINDS AND SUPPORT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
MOISTURE FROM THE S-SW...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF CLOUDS RATHER THAN
RAINFALL. EXPECT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND
90 DEGREES INLAND AND IN THE MID-UPPER 80S AT THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY
BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A
WEAK TROUGH IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH
THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO
THE SERN US. WHETHER THIS IS IN THE FORM OF A PLUME OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE OR SOME FORM OF TS ERIKA IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME. NONETHELESS...THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP DEEP
MOISTURE SUPPRESSED S OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. GIVEN THIS...
ONLY DIURNAL POPS ARE FORECAST...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SRN VA/NE NC
AND IN THE 20-30% RANGE. WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID NEXT WEEK
WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S...WITH MID 80S AT
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES BUILDING INTO THE
REGION. SCT/BKN HI CLOUDS ACRS FAR SE VA/NE NC...MAINLY SKC TO
SCT ELSEWHERE. NE TO SE WINDS THIS AFTN SHIFTING TO SE-SW SAT
MORNING WITH SPDS GENERALLY 10KT OR LESS.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL NEAR/JUST N/E OF THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE WKND...WITH GENLY DRY/VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING AND WINDS TO AVG 10 KT OR LESS. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY
EARLY AM FOG EACH DAY SAT-MON.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING AND IS
LEADING TO SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. WILL
STILL TEND TO SEE AN INCREASE OF A FEW KT AROUND DAYBREAK THAT THE
N/NE FLOW WILL AVG 10-15 KT ACRS MOST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING
(PROBABLY A TAD HIGHER ACRS THE SOUTH). EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY
VEER TO THE E/NE AND DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT LATER IN THE AFTN AS THE
SFC HIGH SHIFTS ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST. SEAS WILL AVG AROUND
3-4 FT ACRS SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS/2-3 FT NORTH...WITH WAVES IN
THE BAY AROUND 2 FT...AND CLOSER TO 1 FT IN THE RIVERS.

ON SAT...WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NC COAST PROGGED TO DRIFT
BACK NORTH (ALTHOUGH STAYING WELL OFFSHORE) AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE NORTHERN MID ATLC COAST. THIS WILL KEEP A
CONTINUED NE FLOW OVER THE AREA SAT...BEFORE SHIFTING MORE TO THE
E/SE SAT NIGHT IN MOST AREAS. SEAS WILL STAY SOMEWHAT ELEVATED IN
THE 3-4 FT RANGE IN THE NE NC COASTAL WATERS...GENLY 2-3 FT
ELSEWHERE WITH BAY WAVES MAINLY AROUND 1 FOOT (2 FT AT THE MOUTH
OF THE BAY). THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY TREND MORE TO THE S/SE SUN AFTN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING AOB 10-15KT. SEAS
SHOULD AVERAGE 2-3 FT...WITH 1-2 FT WAVES FOR THE BAY/RIVERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LKB/JEF
MARINE...LKB



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281739
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
139 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES FROM THE NW TODAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
STALLED SE OF THE AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF ALBEMARLE SOUND ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS COASTAL NE NC.
CLOUDS BREAK UP IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES EVERYWHERE THE REST OF TODAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY
NE/ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED AGAIN
TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTN WHEN GUSTS WILL AVERAGE
15-20 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S INLAND...UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S CLOSER
TO THE COAST DUE TO BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRACK NE THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL KEEP THE LOW WELL
OFFSHORE AS IT SKIRTS BY THE NC OUTER BANKS SATURDAY AND THEN OUT
TO SEA BY SUNDAY MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND THE CIRCULATION
MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS ALONG/SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER...
OTHERWISE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE A WARMING
TREND DURING THIS TIME FRAME. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 60S (NEAR 70 AT
THE BEACHES). HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND/
LOW-MID 80S AT THE COAST WITH ONSHORE WINDS PERSISTING. EXPECT
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SATURDAY...AND
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE FROM TROUGHING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST STREAMS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.

WITH THE WEAK SFC LOW OFF THE COAST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER
OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY RATHER THAN SLIDE OFF THE COAST AS
PREVIOUS DAYS OF MODEL RUNS HAD DEPICTED. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS
KEEP A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
MOVING UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE TN VALLEY. THIS SET UP
WILL FAVOR A RETURN TO SW WINDS AND SUPPORT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
MOISTURE FROM THE S-SW...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF CLOUDS RATHER THAN
RAINFALL. EXPECT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND
90 DEGREES INLAND AND IN THE MID-UPPER 80S AT THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY
BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A
WEAK TROUGH IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH
THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO
THE SERN US. WHETHER THIS IS IN THE FORM OF A PLUME OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE OR SOME FORM OF TS ERIKA IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME. NONETHELESS...THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP DEEP
MOISTURE SUPPRESSED S OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. GIVEN THIS...
ONLY DIURNAL POPS ARE FORECAST...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SRN VA/NE NC
AND IN THE 20-30% RANGE. WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID NEXT WEEK
WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S...WITH MID 80S AT
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES BUILDING INTO THE
REGION. SCT/BKN HI CLOUDS ACRS FAR SE VA/NE NC...MAINLY SKC TO
SCT ELSEWHERE. NE TO SE WINDS THIS AFTN SHIFTING TO SE-SW SAT
MORNING WITH SPDS GENERALLY 10KT OR LESS.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL NEAR/JUST N/E OF THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE WKND...WITH GENLY DRY/VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING AND WINDS TO AVG 10 KT OR LESS. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY
EARLY AM FOG EACH DAY SAT-MON.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING AND IS
LEADING TO SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. WILL
STILL TEND TO SEE AN INCREASE OF A FEW KT AROUND DAYBREAK THAT THE
N/NE FLOW WILL AVG 10-15 KT ACRS MOST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING
(PROBABLY A TAD HIGHER ACRS THE SOUTH). EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY
VEER TO THE E/NE AND DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT LATER IN THE AFTN AS THE
SFC HIGH SHIFTS ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST. SEAS WILL AVG AROUND
3-4 FT ACRS SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS/2-3 FT NORTH...WITH WAVES IN
THE BAY AROUND 2 FT...AND CLOSER TO 1 FT IN THE RIVERS.

ON SAT...WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NC COAST PROGGED TO DRIFT
BACK NORTH (ALTHOUGH STAYING WELL OFFSHORE) AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE NORTHERN MID ATLC COAST. THIS WILL KEEP A
CONTINUED NE FLOW OVER THE AREA SAT...BEFORE SHIFTING MORE TO THE
E/SE SAT NIGHT IN MOST AREAS. SEAS WILL STAY SOMEWHAT ELEVATED IN
THE 3-4 FT RANGE IN THE NE NC COASTAL WATERS...GENLY 2-3 FT
ELSEWHERE WITH BAY WAVES MAINLY AROUND 1 FOOT (2 FT AT THE MOUTH
OF THE BAY). THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY TREND MORE TO THE S/SE SUN AFTN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING AOB 10-15KT. SEAS
SHOULD AVERAGE 2-3 FT...WITH 1-2 FT WAVES FOR THE BAY/RIVERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LKB/JEF
MARINE...LKB




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281739
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
139 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES FROM THE NW TODAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
STALLED SE OF THE AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF ALBEMARLE SOUND ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS COASTAL NE NC.
CLOUDS BREAK UP IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES EVERYWHERE THE REST OF TODAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY
NE/ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED AGAIN
TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTN WHEN GUSTS WILL AVERAGE
15-20 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S INLAND...UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S CLOSER
TO THE COAST DUE TO BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRACK NE THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL KEEP THE LOW WELL
OFFSHORE AS IT SKIRTS BY THE NC OUTER BANKS SATURDAY AND THEN OUT
TO SEA BY SUNDAY MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND THE CIRCULATION
MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS ALONG/SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER...
OTHERWISE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE A WARMING
TREND DURING THIS TIME FRAME. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 60S (NEAR 70 AT
THE BEACHES). HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND/
LOW-MID 80S AT THE COAST WITH ONSHORE WINDS PERSISTING. EXPECT
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SATURDAY...AND
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE FROM TROUGHING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST STREAMS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.

WITH THE WEAK SFC LOW OFF THE COAST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER
OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY RATHER THAN SLIDE OFF THE COAST AS
PREVIOUS DAYS OF MODEL RUNS HAD DEPICTED. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS
KEEP A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
MOVING UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE TN VALLEY. THIS SET UP
WILL FAVOR A RETURN TO SW WINDS AND SUPPORT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
MOISTURE FROM THE S-SW...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF CLOUDS RATHER THAN
RAINFALL. EXPECT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND
90 DEGREES INLAND AND IN THE MID-UPPER 80S AT THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY
BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A
WEAK TROUGH IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH
THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO
THE SERN US. WHETHER THIS IS IN THE FORM OF A PLUME OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE OR SOME FORM OF TS ERIKA IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME. NONETHELESS...THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP DEEP
MOISTURE SUPPRESSED S OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. GIVEN THIS...
ONLY DIURNAL POPS ARE FORECAST...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SRN VA/NE NC
AND IN THE 20-30% RANGE. WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID NEXT WEEK
WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S...WITH MID 80S AT
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES BUILDING INTO THE
REGION. SCT/BKN HI CLOUDS ACRS FAR SE VA/NE NC...MAINLY SKC TO
SCT ELSEWHERE. NE TO SE WINDS THIS AFTN SHIFTING TO SE-SW SAT
MORNING WITH SPDS GENERALLY 10KT OR LESS.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL NEAR/JUST N/E OF THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE WKND...WITH GENLY DRY/VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING AND WINDS TO AVG 10 KT OR LESS. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY
EARLY AM FOG EACH DAY SAT-MON.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING AND IS
LEADING TO SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. WILL
STILL TEND TO SEE AN INCREASE OF A FEW KT AROUND DAYBREAK THAT THE
N/NE FLOW WILL AVG 10-15 KT ACRS MOST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING
(PROBABLY A TAD HIGHER ACRS THE SOUTH). EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY
VEER TO THE E/NE AND DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT LATER IN THE AFTN AS THE
SFC HIGH SHIFTS ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST. SEAS WILL AVG AROUND
3-4 FT ACRS SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS/2-3 FT NORTH...WITH WAVES IN
THE BAY AROUND 2 FT...AND CLOSER TO 1 FT IN THE RIVERS.

ON SAT...WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NC COAST PROGGED TO DRIFT
BACK NORTH (ALTHOUGH STAYING WELL OFFSHORE) AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE NORTHERN MID ATLC COAST. THIS WILL KEEP A
CONTINUED NE FLOW OVER THE AREA SAT...BEFORE SHIFTING MORE TO THE
E/SE SAT NIGHT IN MOST AREAS. SEAS WILL STAY SOMEWHAT ELEVATED IN
THE 3-4 FT RANGE IN THE NE NC COASTAL WATERS...GENLY 2-3 FT
ELSEWHERE WITH BAY WAVES MAINLY AROUND 1 FOOT (2 FT AT THE MOUTH
OF THE BAY). THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY TREND MORE TO THE S/SE SUN AFTN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING AOB 10-15KT. SEAS
SHOULD AVERAGE 2-3 FT...WITH 1-2 FT WAVES FOR THE BAY/RIVERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LKB/JEF
MARINE...LKB



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281739
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
139 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES FROM THE NW TODAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
STALLED SE OF THE AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF ALBEMARLE SOUND ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS COASTAL NE NC.
CLOUDS BREAK UP IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES EVERYWHERE THE REST OF TODAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY
NE/ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED AGAIN
TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTN WHEN GUSTS WILL AVERAGE
15-20 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S INLAND...UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S CLOSER
TO THE COAST DUE TO BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRACK NE THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL KEEP THE LOW WELL
OFFSHORE AS IT SKIRTS BY THE NC OUTER BANKS SATURDAY AND THEN OUT
TO SEA BY SUNDAY MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND THE CIRCULATION
MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS ALONG/SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER...
OTHERWISE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE A WARMING
TREND DURING THIS TIME FRAME. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 60S (NEAR 70 AT
THE BEACHES). HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND/
LOW-MID 80S AT THE COAST WITH ONSHORE WINDS PERSISTING. EXPECT
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SATURDAY...AND
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE FROM TROUGHING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST STREAMS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.

WITH THE WEAK SFC LOW OFF THE COAST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER
OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY RATHER THAN SLIDE OFF THE COAST AS
PREVIOUS DAYS OF MODEL RUNS HAD DEPICTED. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS
KEEP A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
MOVING UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE TN VALLEY. THIS SET UP
WILL FAVOR A RETURN TO SW WINDS AND SUPPORT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
MOISTURE FROM THE S-SW...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF CLOUDS RATHER THAN
RAINFALL. EXPECT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND
90 DEGREES INLAND AND IN THE MID-UPPER 80S AT THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY
BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A
WEAK TROUGH IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH
THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO
THE SERN US. WHETHER THIS IS IN THE FORM OF A PLUME OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE OR SOME FORM OF TS ERIKA IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME. NONETHELESS...THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP DEEP
MOISTURE SUPPRESSED S OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. GIVEN THIS...
ONLY DIURNAL POPS ARE FORECAST...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SRN VA/NE NC
AND IN THE 20-30% RANGE. WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID NEXT WEEK
WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S...WITH MID 80S AT
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES BUILDING INTO THE
REGION. SCT/BKN HI CLOUDS ACRS FAR SE VA/NE NC...MAINLY SKC TO
SCT ELSEWHERE. NE TO SE WINDS THIS AFTN SHIFTING TO SE-SW SAT
MORNING WITH SPDS GENERALLY 10KT OR LESS.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL NEAR/JUST N/E OF THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE WKND...WITH GENLY DRY/VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING AND WINDS TO AVG 10 KT OR LESS. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY
EARLY AM FOG EACH DAY SAT-MON.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING AND IS
LEADING TO SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. WILL
STILL TEND TO SEE AN INCREASE OF A FEW KT AROUND DAYBREAK THAT THE
N/NE FLOW WILL AVG 10-15 KT ACRS MOST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING
(PROBABLY A TAD HIGHER ACRS THE SOUTH). EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY
VEER TO THE E/NE AND DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT LATER IN THE AFTN AS THE
SFC HIGH SHIFTS ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST. SEAS WILL AVG AROUND
3-4 FT ACRS SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS/2-3 FT NORTH...WITH WAVES IN
THE BAY AROUND 2 FT...AND CLOSER TO 1 FT IN THE RIVERS.

ON SAT...WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NC COAST PROGGED TO DRIFT
BACK NORTH (ALTHOUGH STAYING WELL OFFSHORE) AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE NORTHERN MID ATLC COAST. THIS WILL KEEP A
CONTINUED NE FLOW OVER THE AREA SAT...BEFORE SHIFTING MORE TO THE
E/SE SAT NIGHT IN MOST AREAS. SEAS WILL STAY SOMEWHAT ELEVATED IN
THE 3-4 FT RANGE IN THE NE NC COASTAL WATERS...GENLY 2-3 FT
ELSEWHERE WITH BAY WAVES MAINLY AROUND 1 FOOT (2 FT AT THE MOUTH
OF THE BAY). THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY TREND MORE TO THE S/SE SUN AFTN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING AOB 10-15KT. SEAS
SHOULD AVERAGE 2-3 FT...WITH 1-2 FT WAVES FOR THE BAY/RIVERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LKB/JEF
MARINE...LKB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 281734
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
134 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TODAY...SHIFTING
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST BY THIS EVENING. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE NORTH ALONG THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...MAINLY
TO THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN STRENGTHEN IN THE WAKE
OF THIS FEATURE...RESULTING IN DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM EDT FRIDAY...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST AS EVERYTHING IS IN
GOOD SHAPE. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW PATCHY FOG HAS DISSIPATED BUT
SOME CLOUDINESS LINGERS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. EXPECT
CU FIELD TO BLOOM ONCE AGAIN TODAY WITH DIURNAL HEATING WITH
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS HELPING TO GENERATE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO
WEST OF THE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CHANCE POPS WILL COVER THE
SITUATION FROM THE MOUNTAINS OF NC UP THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE
OF VA AND INTO WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY. MORNING RNK SOUNDING
SUPPORTS TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...IN LINE WITH
THE CURRENT FORECAST OF LOW/MID 80S EAST WITH MID/UPPER 70S WEST.

PREVIOUS AFD...

AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND...EXPECT OUR WINDS TO
BECOME EASTERLY TODAY...THEN SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE EVENING.
THE MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW ATLANTIC
MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA...PUSHING IT UPSLOPE INTO THE MOUNTAINS. AS
SUCH...WE CAN EXPECT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE RIDGES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...PERHAPS BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. SLIGHTLY WARMER TODAY AS WELL THANKS TO THE
INCREASED INFLUENCE FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE LOW/MID 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

SOUTHEASTERLY WINDFLOW WILL REMAIN FOR TONIGHT...PUSHING MARINE
MOISTURE INTO THE MOUNTAINS. AS SUCH...EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...
POSSIBLY WITH AN ISOLATED BRIEF SHOWER. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT FRIDAY...

FORECAST BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNCERTAIN DURING THIS PERIOD...FOCUSED
PRIMARILY AROUND THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA
LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SEVERAL WEAK FEATURES DRIVING THE SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. A BROAD...REMNANT UPPER TROUGH LINGERS
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S...WHILE A NEW UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. BOTH SYSTEMS UNDERLIE A BROAD UPPER RIDGE PRESENT AND
BUILDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...BOTH FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND THE CENTRAL U.S. MEANWHILE...A TROUGH/EARLIER WEEK FRONTAL
PASSAGE...LINGERS ALONG THE NC/SC COAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
WEAK REMNANTS OF FORMER HURRICANE DANNY EVIDENT ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF COASTAL REGION. THE TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE
REGION...BUT WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH AS IT APPROACHES THE
ALLEGHANYS SUN...WITH ONLY A WEAK REMNANT TROUGH LINGERING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY MON. MEANWHILE...SOUTHERLY FLOW
BETWEEN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND THE BROAD UPPER LOW
PERSISTING ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH...WILL ALLOW GULF/TROPICAL MOISTURE
TO GRADUALLY BE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE POOLED/UPLIFTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA...WE SHOULD START TO SEE SLIGHTLY
BETTER COVERAGE EACH DAY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT
REGION. EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE GREATER SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER/MORE
STABLE NORTHEAST FLOW...CONSEQUENTLY LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED. ALL OF THIS IS BEST REPRESENTED BY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WESTERN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY...INCREASING TO CHANCE POPS AND CREEPING
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE BY MONDAY.

850MB TEMPS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS BROAD
UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN 2/3RD OF THE U.S.
850MB TEMPS RISE FROM THEIR CURRENT LEVELS IN THE +10C TO +15C
RANGE...CLOSER TO +20C BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH DEWPOINTS ALSO ON
THE INCREASE...MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM MID TO UPPER 50S MOUNTAINS
TO MID 60S EAST...WITH HIGHS 70S MOUNTAINS TO MID AND UPPER 80S
PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT FRIDAY...

THE FORECAST BEYOND MONDAY IS LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF ERIKA. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH
THE CANADIAN SHOWING A MAJOR HURRICANE TRACKING NORTHWEST INTO OUR
CWA WITH ASSOCIATED WIND/RAIN...WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE LITTLE MORE
THAN A TROPICAL LOW...POTENTIALLY SHEARED INTO TWO PARTS...ONE WHICH
REMAINS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND THE OTHER TRACKING
WESTWARD...EITHER INTO THE MID-SOUTH OR POSSIBLY INTO THE TN VALLEY.
WITH THE CONSIDERABLE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN PLACE...SIMPLY
CANNOT INCLUDE ANY EFFECTS IN THE GRIDS AT THIS POINT. LATEST NHC
TRENDS ARE FOR A WEAKER SYSTEM AND MUCH WILL DEPEND ON ITS INITIAL
INTERACTION WITH THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS BEFORE IT EVEN REACHES THE
U.S. MAINLAND. HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BEYOND DAY
5...WHICH GENERALLY ADVERTISED JUST SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
POPS...HIGHLY DIURNAL IN NATURE...ALL SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON THE
EVENTUAL TRACK AND FATE OF ERIKA.

TEMPS BASICALLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND BROAD RIDGING ALOFT...THUS LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE AIRMASS EXCEPT FOR SLOWLY INCREASING MOISTURE. OVERALL...MIN
AND MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH 850MB TEMPS
HOVERING NEAR +20C THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
60S...A FEW 50S MOUNTAINS...WITH HIGHS 70S MOUNTAINS TO MID AND
UPPER 80S PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT FRIDAY...

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL LEAD
TO A PERSISTENCE FORECAST. EXPECT DIURNALLY FORCED BKN/V/SCT VFR
CEILINGS AT ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND
ISOLATED IN COVERAGE SO WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN TAFS.

INDICATIONS ARE THAT CLOUDS WILL NOT STAY LOCKED IN AFTER SUNSET AS
LAST NIGHT...BUT WILL LINGER CIGS FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST UNTIL THE
04Z/08Z TIME FRAME. THE LINGERING CLOUDS WILL KEEP FOG DEVELOPMENT IN
CHECK...THOUGH DISSIPATION/BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR
DEVELOPMENT LATE. WILL KEEP THINGS TEMPO MVFR AT KBCB AND LIMIT KLWB TO
MEDIUM IFR. EXPECT PATCHY FOG EAST OF THE RIDGE AND KDAN SHOWED SOME
FOG DEVELOPMENT LAST NIGHT SO WILL GO WITH A TEMPO MVFR GROUP TOWARD
DAYBREAK THERE AS WELL. ANY FOG/STRATUS WILL BURN OFF AFTER DAYBREAK
TOMORROW AND EXPECT SCT/V/BKN VFR CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATE IN
THE VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
AS OF 130 PM EDT FRIDAY...

EXPECT A MAINLY VFR FORECAST INTO SUNDAY. MOISTURE GRADUALLY
INCREASES...WHICH WILL INCREASE OUR CHANCES FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL GIVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME. GENERALLY EXPECT
THE BEST CHANCES FOR MVFR/IFR TO BE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING DUE TO FOG
AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST ESPECIALLY AT KLWB/KBCB.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...MBS/NF
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...JH/RAB
AVIATION...MBS/NF



000
FXUS61 KRNK 281404
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1004 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TODAY...SHIFTING
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST BY THIS EVENING. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE NORTH ALONG THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...MAINLY
TO THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN STRENGTHEN IN THE WAKE
OF THIS FEATURE...RESULTING IN DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM EDT FRIDAY...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST AS EVERYTHING IS IN
GOOD SHAPE. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW PATCHY FOG HAS DISSIPATED BUT
SOME CLOUDINESS LINGERS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. EXPECT
CU FIELD TO BLOOM ONCE AGAIN TODAY WITH DIURNAL HEATING WITH
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS HELPING TO GENERATE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO
WEST OF THE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CHANCE POPS WILL COVER THE
SITUATION FROM THE MOUNTAINS OF NC UP THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE
OF VA AND INTO WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY. MORNING RNK SOUNDING
SUPPORTS TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...IN LINE WITH
THE CURRENT FORECAST OF LOW/MID 80S EAST WITH MID/UPPER 70S WEST.

PREVIOUS AFD...

AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND...EXPECT OUR WINDS TO
BECOME EASTERLY TODAY...THEN SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE EVENING.
THE MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW ATLANTIC
MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA...PUSHING IT UPSLOPE INTO THE MOUNTAINS. AS
SUCH...WE CAN EXPECT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE RIDGES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...PERHAPS BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. SLIGHTLY WARMER TODAY AS WELL THANKS TO THE
INCREASED INFLUENCE FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE LOW/MID 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

SOUTHEASTERLY WINDFLOW WILL REMAIN FOR TONIGHT...PUSHING MARINE
MOISTURE INTO THE MOUNTAINS. AS SUCH...EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...
POSSIBLY WITH AN ISOLATED BRIEF SHOWER. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT FRIDAY...

FORECAST BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNCERTAIN DURING THIS PERIOD...FOCUSED
PRIMARILY AROUND THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA
LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SEVERAL WEAK FEATURES DRIVING THE SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. A BROAD...REMNANT UPPER TROUGH LINGERS
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S...WHILE A NEW UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. BOTH SYSTEMS UNDERLIE A BROAD UPPER RIDGE PRESENT AND
BUILDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...BOTH FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND THE CENTRAL U.S. MEANWHILE...A TROUGH/EARLIER WEEK FRONTAL
PASSAGE...LINGERS ALONG THE NC/SC COAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
WEAK REMNANTS OF FORMER HURRICANE DANNY EVIDENT ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF COASTAL REGION. THE TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE
REGION...BUT WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH AS IT APPROACHES THE
ALLEGHANYS SUN...WITH ONLY A WEAK REMNANT TROUGH LINGERING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY MON. MEANWHILE...SOUTHERLY FLOW
BETWEEN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND THE BROAD UPPER LOW
PERSISTING ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH...WILL ALLOW GULF/TROPICAL MOISTURE
TO GRADUALLY BE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE POOLED/UPLIFTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA...WE SHOULD START TO SEE SLIGHTLY
BETTER COVERAGE EACH DAY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT
REGION. EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE GREATER SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER/MORE
STABLE NORTHEAST FLOW...CONSEQUENTLY LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED. ALL OF THIS IS BEST REPRESENTED BY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WESTERN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY...INCREASING TO CHANCE POPS AND CREEPING
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE BY MONDAY.

850MB TEMPS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS BROAD
UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN 2/3RD OF THE U.S.
850MB TEMPS RISE FROM THEIR CURRENT LEVELS IN THE +10C TO +15C
RANGE...CLOSER TO +20C BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH DEWPOINTS ALSO ON
THE INCREASE...MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM MID TO UPPER 50S MOUNTAINS
TO MID 60S EAST...WITH HIGHS 70S MOUNTAINS TO MID AND UPPER 80S
PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT FRIDAY...

THE FORECAST BEYOND MONDAY IS LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF ERIKA. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH
THE CANADIAN SHOWING A MAJOR HURRICANE TRACKING NORTHWEST INTO OUR
CWA WITH ASSOCIATED WIND/RAIN...WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE LITTLE MORE
THAN A TROPICAL LOW...POTENTIALLY SHEARED INTO TWO PARTS...ONE WHICH
REMAINS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND THE OTHER TRACKING
WESTWARD...EITHER INTO THE MID-SOUTH OR POSSIBLY INTO THE TN VALLEY.
WITH THE CONSIDERABLE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN PLACE...SIMPLY
CANNOT INCLUDE ANY EFFECTS IN THE GRIDS AT THIS POINT. LATEST NHC
TRENDS ARE FOR A WEAKER SYSTEM AND MUCH WILL DEPEND ON ITS INITIAL
INTERACTION WITH THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS BEFORE IT EVEN REACHES THE
U.S. MAINLAND. HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BEYOND DAY
5...WHICH GENERALLY ADVERTISED JUST SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
POPS...HIGHLY DIURNAL IN NATURE...ALL SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON THE
EVENTUAL TRACK AND FATE OF ERIKA.

TEMPS BASICALLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND BROAD RIDGING ALOFT...THUS LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE AIRMASS EXCEPT FOR SLOWLY INCREASING MOISTURE. OVERALL...MIN
AND MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH 850MB TEMPS
HOVERING NEAR +20C THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
60S...A FEW 50S MOUNTAINS...WITH HIGHS 70S MOUNTAINS TO MID AND
UPPER 80S PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE IS PASSING EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING...SHIFTING WINDS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC INCREASINGLY FROM
THE NORTHEAST. CURRENTLY OBSERVING SCT TO BKN CLOUDS ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE. MAJORITY OF THE CEILINGS ARE LOW END VFR...WITH BASES
IN THE 3KFT TO 6KFT RANGE. HOWEVER OBSERVING MVFR/IFR CEILINGS IN
SPOTS...WHERE BASES HAVE FALLEN TO THE 1KFT TO 3KFT RANGE. LIGHT
FOG HAS ALSO DEVELOPED IN THE CLOUD FREE AREAS...LOWERING
VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 2SM IN A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS.

FOG WILL DISSIPATE AND CEILINGS WILL LIFT AFTER 28/14Z AS DAYTIME
HEATING INCREASES. WINDS WILL SHIFT INCREASINGLY EASTERLY THROUGH
LATE MORNING...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY DURING EARLY EVENING...WITH
SPEEDS IN THE 5KT TO 10KT RANGE. WITH WIND DIRECTION BECOMING
UPSLOPE...EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE RIDGES WITH
MAXIMUM AFTERNOON HEATING...HOWEVER LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE IN THE
AREA WILL KEEP COVERAGE LIMITED. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SCT CU ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT...AND SCT TO BKN CU ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AGAIN WITH
BASES IN THE 4KFT TO 6KFT RANGE.

TONIGHT...EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDFLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...AND
EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT OF SCT TO BKN CLOUDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS...BASICALLY LOW END VFR CEILINGS WITH MVFR INTERMIXED
ALONG THE RIDGES. PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL REDEVELOP IN SPOTS WHERE
CLOUD COVER REMAINS MINIMAL FOR EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
AS OF 200 AM EDT FRIDAY...

EXPECT A MAINLY VFR FORECAST INTO SUNDAY. MOISTURE GRADUALLY
INCREASES BY THE WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE.
TYPICAL LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING MVFR TO LIFR FOG THREAT AT
LWB/BCB/LYH THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...MBS/NF
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...JH/RAB
AVIATION...DS/NF



000
FXUS61 KRNK 281404
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1004 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TODAY...SHIFTING
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST BY THIS EVENING. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE NORTH ALONG THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...MAINLY
TO THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN STRENGTHEN IN THE WAKE
OF THIS FEATURE...RESULTING IN DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM EDT FRIDAY...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST AS EVERYTHING IS IN
GOOD SHAPE. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW PATCHY FOG HAS DISSIPATED BUT
SOME CLOUDINESS LINGERS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. EXPECT
CU FIELD TO BLOOM ONCE AGAIN TODAY WITH DIURNAL HEATING WITH
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS HELPING TO GENERATE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO
WEST OF THE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CHANCE POPS WILL COVER THE
SITUATION FROM THE MOUNTAINS OF NC UP THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE
OF VA AND INTO WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY. MORNING RNK SOUNDING
SUPPORTS TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...IN LINE WITH
THE CURRENT FORECAST OF LOW/MID 80S EAST WITH MID/UPPER 70S WEST.

PREVIOUS AFD...

AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND...EXPECT OUR WINDS TO
BECOME EASTERLY TODAY...THEN SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE EVENING.
THE MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW ATLANTIC
MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA...PUSHING IT UPSLOPE INTO THE MOUNTAINS. AS
SUCH...WE CAN EXPECT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE RIDGES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...PERHAPS BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. SLIGHTLY WARMER TODAY AS WELL THANKS TO THE
INCREASED INFLUENCE FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE LOW/MID 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

SOUTHEASTERLY WINDFLOW WILL REMAIN FOR TONIGHT...PUSHING MARINE
MOISTURE INTO THE MOUNTAINS. AS SUCH...EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...
POSSIBLY WITH AN ISOLATED BRIEF SHOWER. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT FRIDAY...

FORECAST BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNCERTAIN DURING THIS PERIOD...FOCUSED
PRIMARILY AROUND THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA
LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SEVERAL WEAK FEATURES DRIVING THE SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. A BROAD...REMNANT UPPER TROUGH LINGERS
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S...WHILE A NEW UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. BOTH SYSTEMS UNDERLIE A BROAD UPPER RIDGE PRESENT AND
BUILDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...BOTH FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND THE CENTRAL U.S. MEANWHILE...A TROUGH/EARLIER WEEK FRONTAL
PASSAGE...LINGERS ALONG THE NC/SC COAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
WEAK REMNANTS OF FORMER HURRICANE DANNY EVIDENT ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF COASTAL REGION. THE TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE
REGION...BUT WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH AS IT APPROACHES THE
ALLEGHANYS SUN...WITH ONLY A WEAK REMNANT TROUGH LINGERING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY MON. MEANWHILE...SOUTHERLY FLOW
BETWEEN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND THE BROAD UPPER LOW
PERSISTING ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH...WILL ALLOW GULF/TROPICAL MOISTURE
TO GRADUALLY BE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE POOLED/UPLIFTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA...WE SHOULD START TO SEE SLIGHTLY
BETTER COVERAGE EACH DAY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT
REGION. EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE GREATER SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER/MORE
STABLE NORTHEAST FLOW...CONSEQUENTLY LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED. ALL OF THIS IS BEST REPRESENTED BY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WESTERN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY...INCREASING TO CHANCE POPS AND CREEPING
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE BY MONDAY.

850MB TEMPS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS BROAD
UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN 2/3RD OF THE U.S.
850MB TEMPS RISE FROM THEIR CURRENT LEVELS IN THE +10C TO +15C
RANGE...CLOSER TO +20C BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH DEWPOINTS ALSO ON
THE INCREASE...MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM MID TO UPPER 50S MOUNTAINS
TO MID 60S EAST...WITH HIGHS 70S MOUNTAINS TO MID AND UPPER 80S
PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT FRIDAY...

THE FORECAST BEYOND MONDAY IS LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF ERIKA. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH
THE CANADIAN SHOWING A MAJOR HURRICANE TRACKING NORTHWEST INTO OUR
CWA WITH ASSOCIATED WIND/RAIN...WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE LITTLE MORE
THAN A TROPICAL LOW...POTENTIALLY SHEARED INTO TWO PARTS...ONE WHICH
REMAINS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND THE OTHER TRACKING
WESTWARD...EITHER INTO THE MID-SOUTH OR POSSIBLY INTO THE TN VALLEY.
WITH THE CONSIDERABLE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN PLACE...SIMPLY
CANNOT INCLUDE ANY EFFECTS IN THE GRIDS AT THIS POINT. LATEST NHC
TRENDS ARE FOR A WEAKER SYSTEM AND MUCH WILL DEPEND ON ITS INITIAL
INTERACTION WITH THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS BEFORE IT EVEN REACHES THE
U.S. MAINLAND. HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BEYOND DAY
5...WHICH GENERALLY ADVERTISED JUST SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
POPS...HIGHLY DIURNAL IN NATURE...ALL SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON THE
EVENTUAL TRACK AND FATE OF ERIKA.

TEMPS BASICALLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND BROAD RIDGING ALOFT...THUS LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE AIRMASS EXCEPT FOR SLOWLY INCREASING MOISTURE. OVERALL...MIN
AND MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH 850MB TEMPS
HOVERING NEAR +20C THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
60S...A FEW 50S MOUNTAINS...WITH HIGHS 70S MOUNTAINS TO MID AND
UPPER 80S PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE IS PASSING EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING...SHIFTING WINDS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC INCREASINGLY FROM
THE NORTHEAST. CURRENTLY OBSERVING SCT TO BKN CLOUDS ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE. MAJORITY OF THE CEILINGS ARE LOW END VFR...WITH BASES
IN THE 3KFT TO 6KFT RANGE. HOWEVER OBSERVING MVFR/IFR CEILINGS IN
SPOTS...WHERE BASES HAVE FALLEN TO THE 1KFT TO 3KFT RANGE. LIGHT
FOG HAS ALSO DEVELOPED IN THE CLOUD FREE AREAS...LOWERING
VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 2SM IN A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS.

FOG WILL DISSIPATE AND CEILINGS WILL LIFT AFTER 28/14Z AS DAYTIME
HEATING INCREASES. WINDS WILL SHIFT INCREASINGLY EASTERLY THROUGH
LATE MORNING...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY DURING EARLY EVENING...WITH
SPEEDS IN THE 5KT TO 10KT RANGE. WITH WIND DIRECTION BECOMING
UPSLOPE...EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE RIDGES WITH
MAXIMUM AFTERNOON HEATING...HOWEVER LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE IN THE
AREA WILL KEEP COVERAGE LIMITED. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SCT CU ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT...AND SCT TO BKN CU ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AGAIN WITH
BASES IN THE 4KFT TO 6KFT RANGE.

TONIGHT...EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDFLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...AND
EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT OF SCT TO BKN CLOUDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS...BASICALLY LOW END VFR CEILINGS WITH MVFR INTERMIXED
ALONG THE RIDGES. PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL REDEVELOP IN SPOTS WHERE
CLOUD COVER REMAINS MINIMAL FOR EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
AS OF 200 AM EDT FRIDAY...

EXPECT A MAINLY VFR FORECAST INTO SUNDAY. MOISTURE GRADUALLY
INCREASES BY THE WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE.
TYPICAL LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING MVFR TO LIFR FOG THREAT AT
LWB/BCB/LYH THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...MBS/NF
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...JH/RAB
AVIATION...DS/NF



000
FXUS61 KLWX 281346
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
946 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND
THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE
CENTER CURRENTLY PLACED OVER PA NUDGING EASTWARD LATE IN THE DAY.
FORECAST LARGELY ON TRACK WITH QUIET WX EXPECTED TODAY AND ONLY A
FEW PATCHES OF CLOUDS. TEMPS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...GENERALLY IN
THE 80S.

GIVEN SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ON LWX AND RNK 12Z SOUNDINGS WHICH DOES
NOT APPEAR TO ERODE MUCH DURING THE DAY...AM DOUBTING WE SEE MUCH
IF ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE SW CORNER OF THE CWA.

ANOTHER DRY NIGHT...WITH PSBL PATCHY FOG UNDER CLEARING
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND INCRSG LOW LVL MOISTURE. LOWS WILL INCH UP
COMPARED TO THURSDAY NIGHT COINCIDENT WITH DEW POINTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH INCRSG
RETURN FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. WHILE MOST OF THE
CWA...ESP EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL REMAIN DRY SAT AND SUN
AFTN...DO SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISO SHOWER OR TSTM BOTH AFTNS
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN VA/EASTERN WV. THERE REMAINS
SOME QUESTION ON HOW DEEP THE MID LVL TROUGH SETS UP SAT...AND
THEREFORE HOW FAR SOUTH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH CAN
EXTEND. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY HAVE CAPPED POPS AT SLIGHT CHC FOR
SAT...AND CHC FOR SUN...DURING THE AFTNS. INCRSG MOISTURE WILL
ALSO LEAD TO YET ANOTHER NIGHT OF POTENTIAL PATCHY FOG SAT NIGHT
IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY...AND VALLEYS OF THE PIEDMONT.

WILL SEE A RETURN TO WAA WITH THE SW-SLY FLOW...RESULTING IN WARMING
TEMPS. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL FOR BOTH DAYS THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS MID-LVL HGTS RISE NEXT WEEK...REPLACING THE GRTLKS TROF W/ A ERN
CONUS RDG...XPCT A PTTN CHG ACRS THE MID ATLC. FCST WL BE FOR A
HOTTER STRETCH...W/ TEMPS SLGTLY ABV NRML-- MAXT UPR 80S TO NEAR
90F. HUMIDITY LVLS WL BE ON THE RISE TOO...BUT DEWPTS LOOK STICKY
BUT NOT INTOLERABLE-- LWR-MID 60S. MIN-T FCST TAKES ITS CUE FM THESE
PROGGED DEWPTS.

CANNOT RULE OUT DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA IN MEAGER INSTBY ANTICIPATED GIVEN
THE WARMER/MORE HUMID AMS. MTNS WUD BE PREFERRED AS THE TRRN WL
PROVIDE AN ADDED SOURCE OF LIFT. THIS THREAT INCREASES DAILY...ALTHO
AT NO POINT IS IT ALL THAT GREAT. WL SHOW A PROGRESSION FM 20-30
POPS SW OF A CBE-EZF LINE MON PM TO 20-30 POPS AREAWIDE BY THU.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD. PSBL MVFR VIS AT KCHO
AND KMRB EACH NIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG. ANY CONVECTION EACH AFTN
SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE TERMINALS. LIGHT WINDS THRU THE DAY WILL
BECOME SLY SAT-SUN...THOUGH STILL LESS THAN 10 KTS.

OUTSIDE OF LCL PREDAWN FOG...VFR CONDS XPCTD UNDER HIPRES THRU TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THRU SUN NIGHT. PSBL BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTS TO
20 KTS WITH SLY CHANNELING SUN EVENING.

WNDS WL BE LGT UNDER HIPRES...AND SHUD EXHIBIT AN ONSHORE COMPONENT
DURING THE AFTN HRS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/HTS
NEAR TERM...SEARS/ADS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...SEARS/HTS
MARINE...SEARS/HTS



000
FXUS61 KLWX 281346
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
946 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND
THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE
CENTER CURRENTLY PLACED OVER PA NUDGING EASTWARD LATE IN THE DAY.
FORECAST LARGELY ON TRACK WITH QUIET WX EXPECTED TODAY AND ONLY A
FEW PATCHES OF CLOUDS. TEMPS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...GENERALLY IN
THE 80S.

GIVEN SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ON LWX AND RNK 12Z SOUNDINGS WHICH DOES
NOT APPEAR TO ERODE MUCH DURING THE DAY...AM DOUBTING WE SEE MUCH
IF ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE SW CORNER OF THE CWA.

ANOTHER DRY NIGHT...WITH PSBL PATCHY FOG UNDER CLEARING
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND INCRSG LOW LVL MOISTURE. LOWS WILL INCH UP
COMPARED TO THURSDAY NIGHT COINCIDENT WITH DEW POINTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH INCRSG
RETURN FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. WHILE MOST OF THE
CWA...ESP EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL REMAIN DRY SAT AND SUN
AFTN...DO SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISO SHOWER OR TSTM BOTH AFTNS
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN VA/EASTERN WV. THERE REMAINS
SOME QUESTION ON HOW DEEP THE MID LVL TROUGH SETS UP SAT...AND
THEREFORE HOW FAR SOUTH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH CAN
EXTEND. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY HAVE CAPPED POPS AT SLIGHT CHC FOR
SAT...AND CHC FOR SUN...DURING THE AFTNS. INCRSG MOISTURE WILL
ALSO LEAD TO YET ANOTHER NIGHT OF POTENTIAL PATCHY FOG SAT NIGHT
IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY...AND VALLEYS OF THE PIEDMONT.

WILL SEE A RETURN TO WAA WITH THE SW-SLY FLOW...RESULTING IN WARMING
TEMPS. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL FOR BOTH DAYS THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS MID-LVL HGTS RISE NEXT WEEK...REPLACING THE GRTLKS TROF W/ A ERN
CONUS RDG...XPCT A PTTN CHG ACRS THE MID ATLC. FCST WL BE FOR A
HOTTER STRETCH...W/ TEMPS SLGTLY ABV NRML-- MAXT UPR 80S TO NEAR
90F. HUMIDITY LVLS WL BE ON THE RISE TOO...BUT DEWPTS LOOK STICKY
BUT NOT INTOLERABLE-- LWR-MID 60S. MIN-T FCST TAKES ITS CUE FM THESE
PROGGED DEWPTS.

CANNOT RULE OUT DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA IN MEAGER INSTBY ANTICIPATED GIVEN
THE WARMER/MORE HUMID AMS. MTNS WUD BE PREFERRED AS THE TRRN WL
PROVIDE AN ADDED SOURCE OF LIFT. THIS THREAT INCREASES DAILY...ALTHO
AT NO POINT IS IT ALL THAT GREAT. WL SHOW A PROGRESSION FM 20-30
POPS SW OF A CBE-EZF LINE MON PM TO 20-30 POPS AREAWIDE BY THU.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD. PSBL MVFR VIS AT KCHO
AND KMRB EACH NIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG. ANY CONVECTION EACH AFTN
SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE TERMINALS. LIGHT WINDS THRU THE DAY WILL
BECOME SLY SAT-SUN...THOUGH STILL LESS THAN 10 KTS.

OUTSIDE OF LCL PREDAWN FOG...VFR CONDS XPCTD UNDER HIPRES THRU TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THRU SUN NIGHT. PSBL BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTS TO
20 KTS WITH SLY CHANNELING SUN EVENING.

WNDS WL BE LGT UNDER HIPRES...AND SHUD EXHIBIT AN ONSHORE COMPONENT
DURING THE AFTN HRS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/HTS
NEAR TERM...SEARS/ADS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...SEARS/HTS
MARINE...SEARS/HTS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 281346
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
946 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND
THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE
CENTER CURRENTLY PLACED OVER PA NUDGING EASTWARD LATE IN THE DAY.
FORECAST LARGELY ON TRACK WITH QUIET WX EXPECTED TODAY AND ONLY A
FEW PATCHES OF CLOUDS. TEMPS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...GENERALLY IN
THE 80S.

GIVEN SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ON LWX AND RNK 12Z SOUNDINGS WHICH DOES
NOT APPEAR TO ERODE MUCH DURING THE DAY...AM DOUBTING WE SEE MUCH
IF ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE SW CORNER OF THE CWA.

ANOTHER DRY NIGHT...WITH PSBL PATCHY FOG UNDER CLEARING
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND INCRSG LOW LVL MOISTURE. LOWS WILL INCH UP
COMPARED TO THURSDAY NIGHT COINCIDENT WITH DEW POINTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH INCRSG
RETURN FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. WHILE MOST OF THE
CWA...ESP EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL REMAIN DRY SAT AND SUN
AFTN...DO SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISO SHOWER OR TSTM BOTH AFTNS
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN VA/EASTERN WV. THERE REMAINS
SOME QUESTION ON HOW DEEP THE MID LVL TROUGH SETS UP SAT...AND
THEREFORE HOW FAR SOUTH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH CAN
EXTEND. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY HAVE CAPPED POPS AT SLIGHT CHC FOR
SAT...AND CHC FOR SUN...DURING THE AFTNS. INCRSG MOISTURE WILL
ALSO LEAD TO YET ANOTHER NIGHT OF POTENTIAL PATCHY FOG SAT NIGHT
IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY...AND VALLEYS OF THE PIEDMONT.

WILL SEE A RETURN TO WAA WITH THE SW-SLY FLOW...RESULTING IN WARMING
TEMPS. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL FOR BOTH DAYS THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS MID-LVL HGTS RISE NEXT WEEK...REPLACING THE GRTLKS TROF W/ A ERN
CONUS RDG...XPCT A PTTN CHG ACRS THE MID ATLC. FCST WL BE FOR A
HOTTER STRETCH...W/ TEMPS SLGTLY ABV NRML-- MAXT UPR 80S TO NEAR
90F. HUMIDITY LVLS WL BE ON THE RISE TOO...BUT DEWPTS LOOK STICKY
BUT NOT INTOLERABLE-- LWR-MID 60S. MIN-T FCST TAKES ITS CUE FM THESE
PROGGED DEWPTS.

CANNOT RULE OUT DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA IN MEAGER INSTBY ANTICIPATED GIVEN
THE WARMER/MORE HUMID AMS. MTNS WUD BE PREFERRED AS THE TRRN WL
PROVIDE AN ADDED SOURCE OF LIFT. THIS THREAT INCREASES DAILY...ALTHO
AT NO POINT IS IT ALL THAT GREAT. WL SHOW A PROGRESSION FM 20-30
POPS SW OF A CBE-EZF LINE MON PM TO 20-30 POPS AREAWIDE BY THU.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD. PSBL MVFR VIS AT KCHO
AND KMRB EACH NIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG. ANY CONVECTION EACH AFTN
SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE TERMINALS. LIGHT WINDS THRU THE DAY WILL
BECOME SLY SAT-SUN...THOUGH STILL LESS THAN 10 KTS.

OUTSIDE OF LCL PREDAWN FOG...VFR CONDS XPCTD UNDER HIPRES THRU TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THRU SUN NIGHT. PSBL BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTS TO
20 KTS WITH SLY CHANNELING SUN EVENING.

WNDS WL BE LGT UNDER HIPRES...AND SHUD EXHIBIT AN ONSHORE COMPONENT
DURING THE AFTN HRS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/HTS
NEAR TERM...SEARS/ADS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...SEARS/HTS
MARINE...SEARS/HTS



000
FXUS61 KRNK 281147
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
747 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TODAY...SHIFTING
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST BY THIS EVENING. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE NORTH ALONG THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...MAINLY
TO THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN STRENGTHEN IN THE WAKE
OF THIS FEATURE...RESULTING IN DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT FRIDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH HELD IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING...WHILE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING GRADUALLY NUDGES ITS WAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. IN THE LOW LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...MAKING FOR
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDFLOW ACROSS OUR AREA. WHILE OUR ATMOSPHERE IS
DRY FOR THE MOST PART...DO HAVE A THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE A FEW
THOUSAND FEET OFF THE SURFACE...MAKING FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. THESE CLOUDS
ARE ACTING TO BOTH KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER COMPARED TO
THE PREVIOUS FEW MORNINGS...AND ALSO KEEP VALLEY FOG FORMATION TO
A MINIMUM.

AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND...EXPECT OUR WINDS TO
BECOME EASTERLY BY LUNCHTIME...AND SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE
EVENING. THE MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW
ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA...PUSHING IT UPSLOPE INTO THE
MOUNTAINS. AS SUCH...WE CAN EXPECT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE RIDGES.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...PERHAPS BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY AT TIMES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. SLIGHTLY WARMER TODAY AS
WELL THANKS TO THE INCREASED INFLUENCE FROM THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER
70S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOW/MID 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

SOUTHEASTERLY WINDFLOW WILL REMAIN FOR TONIGHT...PUSHING MARINE
MOISTURE INTO THE MOUNTAINS. AS SUCH...EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...
POSSIBLY WITH AN ISOLATED BRIEF SHOWER. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT FRIDAY...

FORECAST BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNCERTAIN DURING THIS PERIOD...FOCUSED
PRIMARILY AROUND THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA
LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SEVERAL WEAK FEATURES DRIVING THE SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. A BROAD...REMNANT UPPER TROUGH LINGERS
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S...WHILE A NEW UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. BOTH SYSTEMS UNDERLIE A BROAD UPPER RIDGE PRESENT AND
BUILDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...BOTH FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND THE CENTRAL U.S. MEANWHILE...A TROUGH/EARLIER WEEK FRONTAL
PASSAGE...LINGERS ALONG THE NC/SC COAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
WEAK REMNANTS OF FORMER HURRICANE DANNY EVIDENT ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF COASTAL REGION. THE TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE
REGION...BUT WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH AS IT APPROACHES THE
ALLEGHANYS SUN...WITH ONLY A WEAK REMNANT TROUGH LINGERING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY MON. MEANWHILE...SOUTHERLY FLOW
BETWEEN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND THE BROAD UPPER LOW
PERSISTING ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH...WILL ALLOW GULF/TROPICAL MOISTURE
TO GRADUALLY BE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE POOLED/UPLIFTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA...WE SHOULD START TO SEE SLIGHTLY
BETTER COVERAGE EACH DAY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT
REGION. EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE GREATER SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER/MORE
STABLE NORTHEAST FLOW...CONSEQUENTLY LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED. ALL OF THIS IS BEST REPRESENTED BY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WESTERN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY...INCREASING TO CHANCE POPS AND CREEPING
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE BY MONDAY.

850MB TEMPS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS BROAD
UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN 2/3RD OF THE U.S.
850MB TEMPS RISE FROM THEIR CURRENT LEVELS IN THE +10C TO +15C
RANGE...CLOSER TO +20C BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH DEWPOINTS ALSO ON
THE INCREASE...MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM MID TO UPPER 50S MOUNTAINS
TO MID 60S EAST...WITH HIGHS 70S MOUNTAINS TO MID AND UPPER 80S
PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT FRIDAY...

THE FORECAST BEYOND MONDAY IS LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF ERIKA. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH
THE CANADIAN SHOWING A MAJOR HURRICANE TRACKING NORTHWEST INTO OUR
CWA WITH ASSOCIATED WIND/RAIN...WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE LITTLE MORE
THAN A TROPICAL LOW...POTENTIALLY SHEARED INTO TWO PARTS...ONE WHICH
REMAINS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND THE OTHER TRACKING
WESTWARD...EITHER INTO THE MID-SOUTH OR POSSIBLY INTO THE TN VALLEY.
WITH THE CONSIDERABLE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN PLACE...SIMPLY
CANNOT INCLUDE ANY EFFECTS IN THE GRIDS AT THIS POINT. LATEST NHC
TRENDS ARE FOR A WEAKER SYSTEM AND MUCH WILL DEPEND ON ITS INITIAL
INTERACTION WITH THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS BEFORE IT EVEN REACHES THE
U.S. MAINLAND. HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BEYOND DAY
5...WHICH GENERALLY ADVERTISED JUST SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
POPS...HIGHLY DIURNAL IN NATURE...ALL SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON THE
EVENTUAL TRACK AND FATE OF ERIKA.

TEMPS BASICALLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND BROAD RIDGING ALOFT...THUS LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE AIRMASS EXCEPT FOR SLOWLY INCREASING MOISTURE. OVERALL...MIN
AND MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH 850MB TEMPS
HOVERING NEAR +20C THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
60S...A FEW 50S MOUNTAINS...WITH HIGHS 70S MOUNTAINS TO MID AND
UPPER 80S PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE IS PASSING EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING...SHIFTING WINDS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC INCREASINGLY FROM
THE NORTHEAST. CURRENTLY OBSERVING SCT TO BKN CLOUDS ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE. MAJORITY OF THE CEILINGS ARE LOW END VFR...WITH BASES
IN THE 3KFT TO 6KFT RANGE. HOWEVER OBSERVING MVFR/IFR CEILINGS IN
SPOTS...WHERE BASES HAVE FALLEN TO THE 1KFT TO 3KFT RANGE. LIGHT
FOG HAS ALSO DEVELOPED IN THE CLOUD FREE AREAS...LOWERING
VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 2SM IN A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS.

FOG WILL DISSIPATE AND CEILINGS WILL LIFT AFTER 28/14Z AS DAYTIME
HEATING INCREASES. WINDS WILL SHIFT INCREASINGLY EASTERLY THROUGH
LATE MORNING...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY DURING EARLY EVENING...WITH
SPEEDS IN THE 5KT TO 10KT RANGE. WITH WIND DIRECTION BECOMING
UPSLOPE...EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE RIDGES WITH
MAXIMUM AFTERNOON HEATING...HOWEVER LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE IN THE
AREA WILL KEEP COVERAGE LIMITED. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SCT CU ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT...AND SCT TO BKN CU ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AGAIN WITH
BASES IN THE 4KFT TO 6KFT RANGE.

TONIGHT...EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDFLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...AND
EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT OF SCT TO BKN CLOUDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS...BASICALLY LOW END VFR CEILINGS WITH MVFR INTERMIXED
ALONG THE RIDGES. PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL REDEVELOP IN SPOTS WHERE
CLOUD COVER REMAINS MINIMAL FOR EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
AS OF 200 AM EDT FRIDAY...

EXPECT A MAINLY VFR FORECAST INTO SUNDAY. MOISTURE GRADUALLY
INCREASES BY THE WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE.
TYPICAL LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING MVFR TO LIFR FOG THREAT AT
LWB/BCB/LYH THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...JH/RAB
AVIATION...DS/NF



000
FXUS61 KRNK 281147
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
747 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TODAY...SHIFTING
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST BY THIS EVENING. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE NORTH ALONG THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...MAINLY
TO THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN STRENGTHEN IN THE WAKE
OF THIS FEATURE...RESULTING IN DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT FRIDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH HELD IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING...WHILE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING GRADUALLY NUDGES ITS WAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. IN THE LOW LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...MAKING FOR
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDFLOW ACROSS OUR AREA. WHILE OUR ATMOSPHERE IS
DRY FOR THE MOST PART...DO HAVE A THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE A FEW
THOUSAND FEET OFF THE SURFACE...MAKING FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. THESE CLOUDS
ARE ACTING TO BOTH KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER COMPARED TO
THE PREVIOUS FEW MORNINGS...AND ALSO KEEP VALLEY FOG FORMATION TO
A MINIMUM.

AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND...EXPECT OUR WINDS TO
BECOME EASTERLY BY LUNCHTIME...AND SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE
EVENING. THE MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW
ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA...PUSHING IT UPSLOPE INTO THE
MOUNTAINS. AS SUCH...WE CAN EXPECT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE RIDGES.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...PERHAPS BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY AT TIMES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. SLIGHTLY WARMER TODAY AS
WELL THANKS TO THE INCREASED INFLUENCE FROM THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER
70S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOW/MID 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

SOUTHEASTERLY WINDFLOW WILL REMAIN FOR TONIGHT...PUSHING MARINE
MOISTURE INTO THE MOUNTAINS. AS SUCH...EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...
POSSIBLY WITH AN ISOLATED BRIEF SHOWER. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT FRIDAY...

FORECAST BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNCERTAIN DURING THIS PERIOD...FOCUSED
PRIMARILY AROUND THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA
LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SEVERAL WEAK FEATURES DRIVING THE SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. A BROAD...REMNANT UPPER TROUGH LINGERS
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S...WHILE A NEW UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. BOTH SYSTEMS UNDERLIE A BROAD UPPER RIDGE PRESENT AND
BUILDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...BOTH FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND THE CENTRAL U.S. MEANWHILE...A TROUGH/EARLIER WEEK FRONTAL
PASSAGE...LINGERS ALONG THE NC/SC COAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
WEAK REMNANTS OF FORMER HURRICANE DANNY EVIDENT ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF COASTAL REGION. THE TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE
REGION...BUT WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH AS IT APPROACHES THE
ALLEGHANYS SUN...WITH ONLY A WEAK REMNANT TROUGH LINGERING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY MON. MEANWHILE...SOUTHERLY FLOW
BETWEEN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND THE BROAD UPPER LOW
PERSISTING ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH...WILL ALLOW GULF/TROPICAL MOISTURE
TO GRADUALLY BE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE POOLED/UPLIFTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA...WE SHOULD START TO SEE SLIGHTLY
BETTER COVERAGE EACH DAY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT
REGION. EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE GREATER SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER/MORE
STABLE NORTHEAST FLOW...CONSEQUENTLY LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED. ALL OF THIS IS BEST REPRESENTED BY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WESTERN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY...INCREASING TO CHANCE POPS AND CREEPING
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE BY MONDAY.

850MB TEMPS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS BROAD
UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN 2/3RD OF THE U.S.
850MB TEMPS RISE FROM THEIR CURRENT LEVELS IN THE +10C TO +15C
RANGE...CLOSER TO +20C BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH DEWPOINTS ALSO ON
THE INCREASE...MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM MID TO UPPER 50S MOUNTAINS
TO MID 60S EAST...WITH HIGHS 70S MOUNTAINS TO MID AND UPPER 80S
PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT FRIDAY...

THE FORECAST BEYOND MONDAY IS LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF ERIKA. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH
THE CANADIAN SHOWING A MAJOR HURRICANE TRACKING NORTHWEST INTO OUR
CWA WITH ASSOCIATED WIND/RAIN...WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE LITTLE MORE
THAN A TROPICAL LOW...POTENTIALLY SHEARED INTO TWO PARTS...ONE WHICH
REMAINS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND THE OTHER TRACKING
WESTWARD...EITHER INTO THE MID-SOUTH OR POSSIBLY INTO THE TN VALLEY.
WITH THE CONSIDERABLE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN PLACE...SIMPLY
CANNOT INCLUDE ANY EFFECTS IN THE GRIDS AT THIS POINT. LATEST NHC
TRENDS ARE FOR A WEAKER SYSTEM AND MUCH WILL DEPEND ON ITS INITIAL
INTERACTION WITH THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS BEFORE IT EVEN REACHES THE
U.S. MAINLAND. HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BEYOND DAY
5...WHICH GENERALLY ADVERTISED JUST SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
POPS...HIGHLY DIURNAL IN NATURE...ALL SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON THE
EVENTUAL TRACK AND FATE OF ERIKA.

TEMPS BASICALLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND BROAD RIDGING ALOFT...THUS LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE AIRMASS EXCEPT FOR SLOWLY INCREASING MOISTURE. OVERALL...MIN
AND MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH 850MB TEMPS
HOVERING NEAR +20C THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
60S...A FEW 50S MOUNTAINS...WITH HIGHS 70S MOUNTAINS TO MID AND
UPPER 80S PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE IS PASSING EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING...SHIFTING WINDS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC INCREASINGLY FROM
THE NORTHEAST. CURRENTLY OBSERVING SCT TO BKN CLOUDS ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE. MAJORITY OF THE CEILINGS ARE LOW END VFR...WITH BASES
IN THE 3KFT TO 6KFT RANGE. HOWEVER OBSERVING MVFR/IFR CEILINGS IN
SPOTS...WHERE BASES HAVE FALLEN TO THE 1KFT TO 3KFT RANGE. LIGHT
FOG HAS ALSO DEVELOPED IN THE CLOUD FREE AREAS...LOWERING
VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 2SM IN A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS.

FOG WILL DISSIPATE AND CEILINGS WILL LIFT AFTER 28/14Z AS DAYTIME
HEATING INCREASES. WINDS WILL SHIFT INCREASINGLY EASTERLY THROUGH
LATE MORNING...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY DURING EARLY EVENING...WITH
SPEEDS IN THE 5KT TO 10KT RANGE. WITH WIND DIRECTION BECOMING
UPSLOPE...EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE RIDGES WITH
MAXIMUM AFTERNOON HEATING...HOWEVER LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE IN THE
AREA WILL KEEP COVERAGE LIMITED. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SCT CU ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT...AND SCT TO BKN CU ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AGAIN WITH
BASES IN THE 4KFT TO 6KFT RANGE.

TONIGHT...EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDFLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...AND
EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT OF SCT TO BKN CLOUDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS...BASICALLY LOW END VFR CEILINGS WITH MVFR INTERMIXED
ALONG THE RIDGES. PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL REDEVELOP IN SPOTS WHERE
CLOUD COVER REMAINS MINIMAL FOR EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
AS OF 200 AM EDT FRIDAY...

EXPECT A MAINLY VFR FORECAST INTO SUNDAY. MOISTURE GRADUALLY
INCREASES BY THE WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE.
TYPICAL LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING MVFR TO LIFR FOG THREAT AT
LWB/BCB/LYH THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...JH/RAB
AVIATION...DS/NF




000
FXUS61 KRNK 281147
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
747 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TODAY...SHIFTING
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST BY THIS EVENING. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE NORTH ALONG THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...MAINLY
TO THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN STRENGTHEN IN THE WAKE
OF THIS FEATURE...RESULTING IN DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT FRIDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH HELD IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING...WHILE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING GRADUALLY NUDGES ITS WAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. IN THE LOW LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...MAKING FOR
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDFLOW ACROSS OUR AREA. WHILE OUR ATMOSPHERE IS
DRY FOR THE MOST PART...DO HAVE A THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE A FEW
THOUSAND FEET OFF THE SURFACE...MAKING FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. THESE CLOUDS
ARE ACTING TO BOTH KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER COMPARED TO
THE PREVIOUS FEW MORNINGS...AND ALSO KEEP VALLEY FOG FORMATION TO
A MINIMUM.

AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND...EXPECT OUR WINDS TO
BECOME EASTERLY BY LUNCHTIME...AND SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE
EVENING. THE MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW
ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA...PUSHING IT UPSLOPE INTO THE
MOUNTAINS. AS SUCH...WE CAN EXPECT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE RIDGES.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...PERHAPS BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY AT TIMES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. SLIGHTLY WARMER TODAY AS
WELL THANKS TO THE INCREASED INFLUENCE FROM THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER
70S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOW/MID 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

SOUTHEASTERLY WINDFLOW WILL REMAIN FOR TONIGHT...PUSHING MARINE
MOISTURE INTO THE MOUNTAINS. AS SUCH...EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...
POSSIBLY WITH AN ISOLATED BRIEF SHOWER. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT FRIDAY...

FORECAST BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNCERTAIN DURING THIS PERIOD...FOCUSED
PRIMARILY AROUND THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA
LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SEVERAL WEAK FEATURES DRIVING THE SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. A BROAD...REMNANT UPPER TROUGH LINGERS
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S...WHILE A NEW UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. BOTH SYSTEMS UNDERLIE A BROAD UPPER RIDGE PRESENT AND
BUILDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...BOTH FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND THE CENTRAL U.S. MEANWHILE...A TROUGH/EARLIER WEEK FRONTAL
PASSAGE...LINGERS ALONG THE NC/SC COAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
WEAK REMNANTS OF FORMER HURRICANE DANNY EVIDENT ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF COASTAL REGION. THE TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE
REGION...BUT WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH AS IT APPROACHES THE
ALLEGHANYS SUN...WITH ONLY A WEAK REMNANT TROUGH LINGERING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY MON. MEANWHILE...SOUTHERLY FLOW
BETWEEN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND THE BROAD UPPER LOW
PERSISTING ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH...WILL ALLOW GULF/TROPICAL MOISTURE
TO GRADUALLY BE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE POOLED/UPLIFTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA...WE SHOULD START TO SEE SLIGHTLY
BETTER COVERAGE EACH DAY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT
REGION. EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE GREATER SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER/MORE
STABLE NORTHEAST FLOW...CONSEQUENTLY LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED. ALL OF THIS IS BEST REPRESENTED BY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WESTERN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY...INCREASING TO CHANCE POPS AND CREEPING
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE BY MONDAY.

850MB TEMPS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS BROAD
UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN 2/3RD OF THE U.S.
850MB TEMPS RISE FROM THEIR CURRENT LEVELS IN THE +10C TO +15C
RANGE...CLOSER TO +20C BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH DEWPOINTS ALSO ON
THE INCREASE...MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM MID TO UPPER 50S MOUNTAINS
TO MID 60S EAST...WITH HIGHS 70S MOUNTAINS TO MID AND UPPER 80S
PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT FRIDAY...

THE FORECAST BEYOND MONDAY IS LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF ERIKA. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH
THE CANADIAN SHOWING A MAJOR HURRICANE TRACKING NORTHWEST INTO OUR
CWA WITH ASSOCIATED WIND/RAIN...WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE LITTLE MORE
THAN A TROPICAL LOW...POTENTIALLY SHEARED INTO TWO PARTS...ONE WHICH
REMAINS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND THE OTHER TRACKING
WESTWARD...EITHER INTO THE MID-SOUTH OR POSSIBLY INTO THE TN VALLEY.
WITH THE CONSIDERABLE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN PLACE...SIMPLY
CANNOT INCLUDE ANY EFFECTS IN THE GRIDS AT THIS POINT. LATEST NHC
TRENDS ARE FOR A WEAKER SYSTEM AND MUCH WILL DEPEND ON ITS INITIAL
INTERACTION WITH THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS BEFORE IT EVEN REACHES THE
U.S. MAINLAND. HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BEYOND DAY
5...WHICH GENERALLY ADVERTISED JUST SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
POPS...HIGHLY DIURNAL IN NATURE...ALL SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON THE
EVENTUAL TRACK AND FATE OF ERIKA.

TEMPS BASICALLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND BROAD RIDGING ALOFT...THUS LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE AIRMASS EXCEPT FOR SLOWLY INCREASING MOISTURE. OVERALL...MIN
AND MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH 850MB TEMPS
HOVERING NEAR +20C THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
60S...A FEW 50S MOUNTAINS...WITH HIGHS 70S MOUNTAINS TO MID AND
UPPER 80S PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE IS PASSING EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING...SHIFTING WINDS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC INCREASINGLY FROM
THE NORTHEAST. CURRENTLY OBSERVING SCT TO BKN CLOUDS ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE. MAJORITY OF THE CEILINGS ARE LOW END VFR...WITH BASES
IN THE 3KFT TO 6KFT RANGE. HOWEVER OBSERVING MVFR/IFR CEILINGS IN
SPOTS...WHERE BASES HAVE FALLEN TO THE 1KFT TO 3KFT RANGE. LIGHT
FOG HAS ALSO DEVELOPED IN THE CLOUD FREE AREAS...LOWERING
VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 2SM IN A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS.

FOG WILL DISSIPATE AND CEILINGS WILL LIFT AFTER 28/14Z AS DAYTIME
HEATING INCREASES. WINDS WILL SHIFT INCREASINGLY EASTERLY THROUGH
LATE MORNING...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY DURING EARLY EVENING...WITH
SPEEDS IN THE 5KT TO 10KT RANGE. WITH WIND DIRECTION BECOMING
UPSLOPE...EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE RIDGES WITH
MAXIMUM AFTERNOON HEATING...HOWEVER LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE IN THE
AREA WILL KEEP COVERAGE LIMITED. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SCT CU ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT...AND SCT TO BKN CU ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AGAIN WITH
BASES IN THE 4KFT TO 6KFT RANGE.

TONIGHT...EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDFLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...AND
EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT OF SCT TO BKN CLOUDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS...BASICALLY LOW END VFR CEILINGS WITH MVFR INTERMIXED
ALONG THE RIDGES. PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL REDEVELOP IN SPOTS WHERE
CLOUD COVER REMAINS MINIMAL FOR EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
AS OF 200 AM EDT FRIDAY...

EXPECT A MAINLY VFR FORECAST INTO SUNDAY. MOISTURE GRADUALLY
INCREASES BY THE WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE.
TYPICAL LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING MVFR TO LIFR FOG THREAT AT
LWB/BCB/LYH THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...JH/RAB
AVIATION...DS/NF



000
FXUS61 KRNK 281147
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
747 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TODAY...SHIFTING
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST BY THIS EVENING. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE NORTH ALONG THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...MAINLY
TO THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN STRENGTHEN IN THE WAKE
OF THIS FEATURE...RESULTING IN DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT FRIDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH HELD IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING...WHILE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING GRADUALLY NUDGES ITS WAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. IN THE LOW LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...MAKING FOR
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDFLOW ACROSS OUR AREA. WHILE OUR ATMOSPHERE IS
DRY FOR THE MOST PART...DO HAVE A THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE A FEW
THOUSAND FEET OFF THE SURFACE...MAKING FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. THESE CLOUDS
ARE ACTING TO BOTH KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER COMPARED TO
THE PREVIOUS FEW MORNINGS...AND ALSO KEEP VALLEY FOG FORMATION TO
A MINIMUM.

AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND...EXPECT OUR WINDS TO
BECOME EASTERLY BY LUNCHTIME...AND SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE
EVENING. THE MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW
ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA...PUSHING IT UPSLOPE INTO THE
MOUNTAINS. AS SUCH...WE CAN EXPECT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE RIDGES.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...PERHAPS BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY AT TIMES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. SLIGHTLY WARMER TODAY AS
WELL THANKS TO THE INCREASED INFLUENCE FROM THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER
70S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOW/MID 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

SOUTHEASTERLY WINDFLOW WILL REMAIN FOR TONIGHT...PUSHING MARINE
MOISTURE INTO THE MOUNTAINS. AS SUCH...EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...
POSSIBLY WITH AN ISOLATED BRIEF SHOWER. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT FRIDAY...

FORECAST BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNCERTAIN DURING THIS PERIOD...FOCUSED
PRIMARILY AROUND THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA
LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SEVERAL WEAK FEATURES DRIVING THE SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. A BROAD...REMNANT UPPER TROUGH LINGERS
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S...WHILE A NEW UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. BOTH SYSTEMS UNDERLIE A BROAD UPPER RIDGE PRESENT AND
BUILDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...BOTH FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND THE CENTRAL U.S. MEANWHILE...A TROUGH/EARLIER WEEK FRONTAL
PASSAGE...LINGERS ALONG THE NC/SC COAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
WEAK REMNANTS OF FORMER HURRICANE DANNY EVIDENT ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF COASTAL REGION. THE TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE
REGION...BUT WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH AS IT APPROACHES THE
ALLEGHANYS SUN...WITH ONLY A WEAK REMNANT TROUGH LINGERING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY MON. MEANWHILE...SOUTHERLY FLOW
BETWEEN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND THE BROAD UPPER LOW
PERSISTING ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH...WILL ALLOW GULF/TROPICAL MOISTURE
TO GRADUALLY BE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE POOLED/UPLIFTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA...WE SHOULD START TO SEE SLIGHTLY
BETTER COVERAGE EACH DAY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT
REGION. EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE GREATER SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER/MORE
STABLE NORTHEAST FLOW...CONSEQUENTLY LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED. ALL OF THIS IS BEST REPRESENTED BY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WESTERN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY...INCREASING TO CHANCE POPS AND CREEPING
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE BY MONDAY.

850MB TEMPS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS BROAD
UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN 2/3RD OF THE U.S.
850MB TEMPS RISE FROM THEIR CURRENT LEVELS IN THE +10C TO +15C
RANGE...CLOSER TO +20C BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH DEWPOINTS ALSO ON
THE INCREASE...MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM MID TO UPPER 50S MOUNTAINS
TO MID 60S EAST...WITH HIGHS 70S MOUNTAINS TO MID AND UPPER 80S
PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT FRIDAY...

THE FORECAST BEYOND MONDAY IS LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF ERIKA. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH
THE CANADIAN SHOWING A MAJOR HURRICANE TRACKING NORTHWEST INTO OUR
CWA WITH ASSOCIATED WIND/RAIN...WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE LITTLE MORE
THAN A TROPICAL LOW...POTENTIALLY SHEARED INTO TWO PARTS...ONE WHICH
REMAINS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND THE OTHER TRACKING
WESTWARD...EITHER INTO THE MID-SOUTH OR POSSIBLY INTO THE TN VALLEY.
WITH THE CONSIDERABLE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN PLACE...SIMPLY
CANNOT INCLUDE ANY EFFECTS IN THE GRIDS AT THIS POINT. LATEST NHC
TRENDS ARE FOR A WEAKER SYSTEM AND MUCH WILL DEPEND ON ITS INITIAL
INTERACTION WITH THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS BEFORE IT EVEN REACHES THE
U.S. MAINLAND. HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BEYOND DAY
5...WHICH GENERALLY ADVERTISED JUST SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
POPS...HIGHLY DIURNAL IN NATURE...ALL SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON THE
EVENTUAL TRACK AND FATE OF ERIKA.

TEMPS BASICALLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND BROAD RIDGING ALOFT...THUS LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE AIRMASS EXCEPT FOR SLOWLY INCREASING MOISTURE. OVERALL...MIN
AND MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH 850MB TEMPS
HOVERING NEAR +20C THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
60S...A FEW 50S MOUNTAINS...WITH HIGHS 70S MOUNTAINS TO MID AND
UPPER 80S PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE IS PASSING EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING...SHIFTING WINDS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC INCREASINGLY FROM
THE NORTHEAST. CURRENTLY OBSERVING SCT TO BKN CLOUDS ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE. MAJORITY OF THE CEILINGS ARE LOW END VFR...WITH BASES
IN THE 3KFT TO 6KFT RANGE. HOWEVER OBSERVING MVFR/IFR CEILINGS IN
SPOTS...WHERE BASES HAVE FALLEN TO THE 1KFT TO 3KFT RANGE. LIGHT
FOG HAS ALSO DEVELOPED IN THE CLOUD FREE AREAS...LOWERING
VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 2SM IN A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS.

FOG WILL DISSIPATE AND CEILINGS WILL LIFT AFTER 28/14Z AS DAYTIME
HEATING INCREASES. WINDS WILL SHIFT INCREASINGLY EASTERLY THROUGH
LATE MORNING...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY DURING EARLY EVENING...WITH
SPEEDS IN THE 5KT TO 10KT RANGE. WITH WIND DIRECTION BECOMING
UPSLOPE...EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE RIDGES WITH
MAXIMUM AFTERNOON HEATING...HOWEVER LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE IN THE
AREA WILL KEEP COVERAGE LIMITED. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SCT CU ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT...AND SCT TO BKN CU ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AGAIN WITH
BASES IN THE 4KFT TO 6KFT RANGE.

TONIGHT...EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDFLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...AND
EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT OF SCT TO BKN CLOUDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS...BASICALLY LOW END VFR CEILINGS WITH MVFR INTERMIXED
ALONG THE RIDGES. PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL REDEVELOP IN SPOTS WHERE
CLOUD COVER REMAINS MINIMAL FOR EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
AS OF 200 AM EDT FRIDAY...

EXPECT A MAINLY VFR FORECAST INTO SUNDAY. MOISTURE GRADUALLY
INCREASES BY THE WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE.
TYPICAL LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING MVFR TO LIFR FOG THREAT AT
LWB/BCB/LYH THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...JH/RAB
AVIATION...DS/NF




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281111
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
711 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES FROM THE NW TODAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
STALLED SE OF THE AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF ALBEMARLE SOUND ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS COASTAL NE NC.
CLOUDS BREAK UP IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES EVERYWHERE THE REST OF TODAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY
NE/ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED AGAIN
TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTN WHEN GUSTS WILL AVERAGE
15-20 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S INLAND...UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S CLOSER
TO THE COAST DUE TO BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRACK NE THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL KEEP THE LOW WELL
OFFSHORE AS IT SKIRTS BY THE NC OUTER BANKS SATURDAY AND THEN OUT
TO SEA BY SUNDAY MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND THE CIRCULATION
MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS ALONG/SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER...
OTHERWISE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE A WARMING
TREND DURING THIS TIME FRAME. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 60S (NEAR 70 AT
THE BEACHES). HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND/
LOW-MID 80S AT THE COAST WITH ONSHORE WINDS PERSISTING. EXPECT
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SATURDAY...AND
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE FROM TROUGHING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST STREAMS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.

WITH THE WEAK SFC LOW OFF THE COAST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER
OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY RATHER THAN SLIDE OFF THE COAST AS
PREVIOUS DAYS OF MODEL RUNS HAD DEPICTED. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS
KEEP A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
MOVING UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE TN VALLEY. THIS SET UP
WILL FAVOR A RETURN TO SW WINDS AND SUPPORT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
MOISTURE FROM THE S-SW...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF CLOUDS RATHER THAN
RAINFALL. EXPECT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND
90 DEGREES INLAND AND IN THE MID-UPPER 80S AT THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY
BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A
WEAK TROUGH IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH
THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO
THE SERN US. WHETHER THIS IS IN THE FORM OF A PLUME OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE OR SOME FORM OF TS ERIKA IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME. NONETHELESS...THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP DEEP
MOISTURE SUPPRESSED S OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. GIVEN THIS...
ONLY DIURNAL POPS ARE FORECAST...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SRN VA/NE NC
AND IN THE 20-30% RANGE. WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID NEXT WEEK
WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S...WITH MID 80S AT
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES BUILDING INTO THE REGION TODAY...WITH VFR
CONDS. SOME PATCHY FOG NOTED AS OF 11Z...BUT WILL GENLY NOT
AFFECT TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...SCT/BKN CONDS ACRS FAR SE VA/NE
NC...MAINLY SKC TO SCT ELSEWHERE. N/NE WINDS THIS MORNING...WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE E/NE AND WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS EXCEPT
AT KORF/KECG WHERE A FEW GUSTS TO 15 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY AFTN.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL NEAR/JUST N/E OF THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE WKND...WITH GENLY DRY/VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING AND WINDS TO AVG 10 KT OR LESS. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY
EARLY AM FOG EACH DAY SAT-MON.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING AND IS
LEADING TO SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. WILL
STILL TEND TO SEE AN INCREASE OF A FEW KT AROUND DAYBREAK THAT THE
N/NE FLOW WILL AVG 10-15 KT ACRS MOST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING
(PROBABLY A TAD HIGHER ACRS THE SOUTH). EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY
VEER TO THE E/NE AND DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT LATER IN THE AFTN AS THE
SFC HIGH SHIFTS ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST. SEAS WILL AVG AROUND
3-4 FT ACRS SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS/2-3 FT NORTH...WITH WAVES IN
THE BAY AROUND 2 FT...AND CLOSER TO 1 FT IN THE RIVERS.

ON SAT...WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NC COAST PROGGED TO DRIFT
BACK NORTH (ALTHOUGH STAYING WELL OFFSHORE) AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE NORTHERN MID ATLC COAST. THIS WILL KEEP A
CONTINUED NE FLOW OVER THE AREA SAT...BEFORE SHIFTING MORE TO THE
E/SE SAT NIGHT IN MOST AREAS. SEAS WILL STAY SOMEWHAT ELEVATED IN
THE 3-4 FT RANGE IN THE NE NC COASTAL WATERS...GENLY 2-3 FT
ELSEWHERE WITH BAY WAVES MAINLY AROUND 1 FOOT (2 FT AT THE MOUTH
OF THE BAY). THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY TREND MORE TO THE S/SE SUN AFTN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING AOB 10-15KT. SEAS
SHOULD AVERAGE 2-3 FT...WITH 1-2 FT WAVES FOR THE BAY/RIVERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...LKB



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281111
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
711 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES FROM THE NW TODAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
STALLED SE OF THE AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF ALBEMARLE SOUND ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS COASTAL NE NC.
CLOUDS BREAK UP IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES EVERYWHERE THE REST OF TODAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY
NE/ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED AGAIN
TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTN WHEN GUSTS WILL AVERAGE
15-20 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S INLAND...UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S CLOSER
TO THE COAST DUE TO BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRACK NE THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL KEEP THE LOW WELL
OFFSHORE AS IT SKIRTS BY THE NC OUTER BANKS SATURDAY AND THEN OUT
TO SEA BY SUNDAY MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND THE CIRCULATION
MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS ALONG/SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER...
OTHERWISE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE A WARMING
TREND DURING THIS TIME FRAME. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 60S (NEAR 70 AT
THE BEACHES). HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND/
LOW-MID 80S AT THE COAST WITH ONSHORE WINDS PERSISTING. EXPECT
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SATURDAY...AND
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE FROM TROUGHING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST STREAMS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.

WITH THE WEAK SFC LOW OFF THE COAST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER
OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY RATHER THAN SLIDE OFF THE COAST AS
PREVIOUS DAYS OF MODEL RUNS HAD DEPICTED. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS
KEEP A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
MOVING UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE TN VALLEY. THIS SET UP
WILL FAVOR A RETURN TO SW WINDS AND SUPPORT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
MOISTURE FROM THE S-SW...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF CLOUDS RATHER THAN
RAINFALL. EXPECT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND
90 DEGREES INLAND AND IN THE MID-UPPER 80S AT THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY
BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A
WEAK TROUGH IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH
THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO
THE SERN US. WHETHER THIS IS IN THE FORM OF A PLUME OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE OR SOME FORM OF TS ERIKA IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME. NONETHELESS...THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP DEEP
MOISTURE SUPPRESSED S OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. GIVEN THIS...
ONLY DIURNAL POPS ARE FORECAST...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SRN VA/NE NC
AND IN THE 20-30% RANGE. WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID NEXT WEEK
WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S...WITH MID 80S AT
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES BUILDING INTO THE REGION TODAY...WITH VFR
CONDS. SOME PATCHY FOG NOTED AS OF 11Z...BUT WILL GENLY NOT
AFFECT TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...SCT/BKN CONDS ACRS FAR SE VA/NE
NC...MAINLY SKC TO SCT ELSEWHERE. N/NE WINDS THIS MORNING...WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE E/NE AND WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS EXCEPT
AT KORF/KECG WHERE A FEW GUSTS TO 15 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY AFTN.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL NEAR/JUST N/E OF THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE WKND...WITH GENLY DRY/VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING AND WINDS TO AVG 10 KT OR LESS. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY
EARLY AM FOG EACH DAY SAT-MON.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING AND IS
LEADING TO SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. WILL
STILL TEND TO SEE AN INCREASE OF A FEW KT AROUND DAYBREAK THAT THE
N/NE FLOW WILL AVG 10-15 KT ACRS MOST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING
(PROBABLY A TAD HIGHER ACRS THE SOUTH). EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY
VEER TO THE E/NE AND DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT LATER IN THE AFTN AS THE
SFC HIGH SHIFTS ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST. SEAS WILL AVG AROUND
3-4 FT ACRS SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS/2-3 FT NORTH...WITH WAVES IN
THE BAY AROUND 2 FT...AND CLOSER TO 1 FT IN THE RIVERS.

ON SAT...WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NC COAST PROGGED TO DRIFT
BACK NORTH (ALTHOUGH STAYING WELL OFFSHORE) AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE NORTHERN MID ATLC COAST. THIS WILL KEEP A
CONTINUED NE FLOW OVER THE AREA SAT...BEFORE SHIFTING MORE TO THE
E/SE SAT NIGHT IN MOST AREAS. SEAS WILL STAY SOMEWHAT ELEVATED IN
THE 3-4 FT RANGE IN THE NE NC COASTAL WATERS...GENLY 2-3 FT
ELSEWHERE WITH BAY WAVES MAINLY AROUND 1 FOOT (2 FT AT THE MOUTH
OF THE BAY). THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY TREND MORE TO THE S/SE SUN AFTN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING AOB 10-15KT. SEAS
SHOULD AVERAGE 2-3 FT...WITH 1-2 FT WAVES FOR THE BAY/RIVERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...LKB




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281052 AAB
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
652 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES FROM THE NW TODAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
STALLED SE OF THE AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF ALBEMARLE SOUND ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS COASTAL NE NC.
CLOUDS BREAK UP IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES EVERYWHERE THE REST OF TODAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY
NE/ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED AGAIN
TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTN WHEN GUSTS WILL AVERAGE
15-20 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S INLAND...UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S CLOSER
TO THE COAST DUE TO BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRACK NE THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL KEEP THE LOW WELL
OFFSHORE AS IT SKIRTS BY THE NC OUTER BANKS SATURDAY AND THEN OUT
TO SEA BY SUNDAY MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND THE CIRCULATION
MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS ALONG/SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER...
OTHERWISE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE A WARMING
TREND DURING THIS TIME FRAME. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 60S (NEAR 70 AT
THE BEACHES). HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND/
LOW-MID 80S AT THE COAST WITH ONSHORE WINDS PERSISTING. EXPECT
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SATURDAY...AND
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE FROM TROUGHING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST STREAMS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.

WITH THE WEAK SFC LOW OFF THE COAST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER
OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY RATHER THAN SLIDE OFF THE COAST AS
PREVIOUS DAYS OF MODEL RUNS HAD DEPICTED. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS
KEEP A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
MOVING UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE TN VALLEY. THIS SET UP
WILL FAVOR A RETURN TO SW WINDS AND SUPPORT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
MOISTURE FROM THE S-SW...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF CLOUDS RATHER THAN
RAINFALL. EXPECT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND
90 DEGREES INLAND AND IN THE MID-UPPER 80S AT THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY
BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A
WEAK TROUGH IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH
THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO
THE SERN US. WHETHER THIS IS IN THE FORM OF A PLUME OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE OR SOME FORM OF TS ERIKA IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME. NONETHELESS...THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP DEEP
MOISTURE SUPPRESSED S OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. GIVEN THIS...
ONLY DIURNAL POPS ARE FORECAST...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SRN VA/NE NC
AND IN THE 20-30% RANGE. WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID NEXT WEEK
WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S...WITH MID 80S AT
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES BUILDING INTO THE REGION TODAY...WITH VFR
CONDS. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09Z-12Z THIS MORNING OVER
INTERIOR VA/MD BUT WILL GENLY NOT AFFECT TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...
BKN/OVC CIGS 5-10 K FT OVER FAR SE VA/NE NC WILL GRADUALLY ERODE
LATER THIS MORNING. LIGHT N/NE WINDS...WILL GRADUALLY TURN OUT OF
THE E/NE AND WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS EXCEPT AT KORF/KECG WHERE A
FEW GUSTS TO 15 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTN.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL NEAR/JUST N/E OF THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE WKND...WITH GENLY DRY/VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING AND WINDS TO AVG 10 KT OR LESS. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY
EARLY AM FOG EACH DAY SAT-MON.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING AND IS
LEADING TO SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. WILL
STILL TEND TO SEE AN INCREASE OF A FEW KT AROUND DAYBREAK THAT THE
N/NE FLOW WILL AVG 10-15 KT ACRS MOST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING
(PROBABLY A TAD HIGHER ACRS THE SOUTH). EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY
VEER TO THE E/NE AND DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT LATER IN THE AFTN AS THE
SFC HIGH SHIFTS ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST. SEAS WILL AVG AROUND
3-4 FT ACRS SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS/2-3 FT NORTH...WITH WAVES IN
THE BAY AROUND 2 FT...AND CLOSER TO 1 FT IN THE RIVERS.

ON SAT...WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NC COAST PROGGED TO DRIFT
BACK NORTH (ALTHOUGH STAYING WELL OFFSHORE) AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE NORTHERN MID ATLC COAST. THIS WILL KEEP A
CONTINUED NE FLOW OVER THE AREA SAT...BEFORE SHIFTING MORE TO THE
E/SE SAT NIGHT IN MOST AREAS. SEAS WILL STAY SOMEWHAT ELEVATED IN
THE 3-4 FT RANGE IN THE NE NC COASTAL WATERS...GENLY 2-3 FT
ELSEWHERE WITH BAY WAVES MAINLY AROUND 1 FOOT (2 FT AT THE MOUTH
OF THE BAY). THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY TREND MORE TO THE S/SE SUN AFTN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING AOB 10-15KT. SEAS
SHOULD AVERAGE 2-3 FT...WITH 1-2 FT WAVES FOR THE BAY/RIVERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD/JDM
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LKB/WRS
MARINE...LKB



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281052 AAB
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
652 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES FROM THE NW TODAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
STALLED SE OF THE AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF ALBEMARLE SOUND ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS COASTAL NE NC.
CLOUDS BREAK UP IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES EVERYWHERE THE REST OF TODAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY
NE/ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED AGAIN
TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTN WHEN GUSTS WILL AVERAGE
15-20 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S INLAND...UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S CLOSER
TO THE COAST DUE TO BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRACK NE THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL KEEP THE LOW WELL
OFFSHORE AS IT SKIRTS BY THE NC OUTER BANKS SATURDAY AND THEN OUT
TO SEA BY SUNDAY MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND THE CIRCULATION
MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS ALONG/SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER...
OTHERWISE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE A WARMING
TREND DURING THIS TIME FRAME. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 60S (NEAR 70 AT
THE BEACHES). HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND/
LOW-MID 80S AT THE COAST WITH ONSHORE WINDS PERSISTING. EXPECT
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SATURDAY...AND
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE FROM TROUGHING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST STREAMS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.

WITH THE WEAK SFC LOW OFF THE COAST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER
OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY RATHER THAN SLIDE OFF THE COAST AS
PREVIOUS DAYS OF MODEL RUNS HAD DEPICTED. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS
KEEP A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
MOVING UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE TN VALLEY. THIS SET UP
WILL FAVOR A RETURN TO SW WINDS AND SUPPORT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
MOISTURE FROM THE S-SW...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF CLOUDS RATHER THAN
RAINFALL. EXPECT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND
90 DEGREES INLAND AND IN THE MID-UPPER 80S AT THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY
BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A
WEAK TROUGH IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH
THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO
THE SERN US. WHETHER THIS IS IN THE FORM OF A PLUME OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE OR SOME FORM OF TS ERIKA IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME. NONETHELESS...THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP DEEP
MOISTURE SUPPRESSED S OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. GIVEN THIS...
ONLY DIURNAL POPS ARE FORECAST...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SRN VA/NE NC
AND IN THE 20-30% RANGE. WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID NEXT WEEK
WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S...WITH MID 80S AT
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES BUILDING INTO THE REGION TODAY...WITH VFR
CONDS. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09Z-12Z THIS MORNING OVER
INTERIOR VA/MD BUT WILL GENLY NOT AFFECT TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...
BKN/OVC CIGS 5-10 K FT OVER FAR SE VA/NE NC WILL GRADUALLY ERODE
LATER THIS MORNING. LIGHT N/NE WINDS...WILL GRADUALLY TURN OUT OF
THE E/NE AND WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS EXCEPT AT KORF/KECG WHERE A
FEW GUSTS TO 15 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTN.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL NEAR/JUST N/E OF THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE WKND...WITH GENLY DRY/VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING AND WINDS TO AVG 10 KT OR LESS. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY
EARLY AM FOG EACH DAY SAT-MON.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING AND IS
LEADING TO SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. WILL
STILL TEND TO SEE AN INCREASE OF A FEW KT AROUND DAYBREAK THAT THE
N/NE FLOW WILL AVG 10-15 KT ACRS MOST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING
(PROBABLY A TAD HIGHER ACRS THE SOUTH). EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY
VEER TO THE E/NE AND DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT LATER IN THE AFTN AS THE
SFC HIGH SHIFTS ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST. SEAS WILL AVG AROUND
3-4 FT ACRS SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS/2-3 FT NORTH...WITH WAVES IN
THE BAY AROUND 2 FT...AND CLOSER TO 1 FT IN THE RIVERS.

ON SAT...WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NC COAST PROGGED TO DRIFT
BACK NORTH (ALTHOUGH STAYING WELL OFFSHORE) AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE NORTHERN MID ATLC COAST. THIS WILL KEEP A
CONTINUED NE FLOW OVER THE AREA SAT...BEFORE SHIFTING MORE TO THE
E/SE SAT NIGHT IN MOST AREAS. SEAS WILL STAY SOMEWHAT ELEVATED IN
THE 3-4 FT RANGE IN THE NE NC COASTAL WATERS...GENLY 2-3 FT
ELSEWHERE WITH BAY WAVES MAINLY AROUND 1 FOOT (2 FT AT THE MOUTH
OF THE BAY). THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY TREND MORE TO THE S/SE SUN AFTN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING AOB 10-15KT. SEAS
SHOULD AVERAGE 2-3 FT...WITH 1-2 FT WAVES FOR THE BAY/RIVERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD/JDM
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LKB/WRS
MARINE...LKB




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281052 AAA
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
401 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES FROM THE NW TODAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
STALLED SE OF THE AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF ALBEMARLE SOUND ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS COASTAL NE NC.
CLOUDS BREAK UP IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES EVERYWHERE THE REST OF TODAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY
NE/ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED AGAIN
TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTN WHEN GUSTS WILL AVERAGE
15-20 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S INLAND...UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S CLOSER
TO THE COAST DUE TO BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRACK NE THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL KEEP THE LOW WELL
OFFSHORE AS IT SKIRTS BY THE NC OUTER BANKS SATURDAY AND THEN OUT
TO SEA BY SUNDAY MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND THE CIRCULATION
MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS ALONG/SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER...
OTHERWISE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE A WARMING
TREND DURING THIS TIME FRAME. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 60S (NEAR 70 AT
THE BEACHES). HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND/
LOW-MID 80S AT THE COAST WITH ONSHORE WINDS PERSISTING. EXPECT
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SATURDAY...AND
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE FROM TROUGHING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST STREAMS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.

WITH THE WEAK SFC LOW OFF THE COAST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER
OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY RATHER THAN SLIDE OFF THE COAST AS
PREVIOUS DAYS OF MODEL RUNS HAD DEPICTED. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS
KEEP A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
MOVING UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE TN VALLEY. THIS SET UP
WILL FAVOR A RETURN TO SW WINDS AND SUPPORT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
MOISTURE FROM THE S-SW...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF CLOUDS RATHER THAN
RAINFALL. EXPECT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND
90 DEGREES INLAND AND IN THE MID-UPPER 80S AT THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY
BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A
WEAK TROUGH IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH
THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO
THE SERN US. WHETHER THIS IS IN THE FORM OF A PLUME OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE OR SOME FORM OF TS ERIKA IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME. NONETHELESS...THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP DEEP
MOISTURE SUPPRESSED S OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. GIVEN THIS...
ONLY DIURNAL POPS ARE FORECAST...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SRN VA/NE NC
AND IN THE 20-30% RANGE. WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID NEXT WEEK
WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S...WITH MID 80S AT
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES BUILDING INTO THE REGION TODAY...WITH VFR
CONDS. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09Z-12Z THIS MORNING OVER
INTERIOR VA/MD BUT WILL GENLY NOT AFFECT TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...
BKN/OVC CIGS 5-10 K FT OVER FAR SE VA/NE NC WILL GRADUALLY ERODE
LATER THIS MORNING. LIGHT N/NE WINDS...WILL GRADUALLY TURN OUT OF
THE E/NE AND WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS EXCEPT AT KORF/KECG WHERE A
FEW GUSTS TO 15 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTN.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL NEAR/JUST N/E OF THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE WKND...WITH GENLY DRY/VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING AND WINDS TO AVG 10 KT OR LESS. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY
EARLY AM FOG EACH DAY SAT-MON.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING AND IS
LEADING TO SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. WILL
STILL TEND TO SEE AN INCREASE OF A FEW KT AROUND DAYBREAK THAT THE
N/NE FLOW WILL AVG 10-15 KT ACRS MOST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING
(PROBABLY A TAD HIGHER ACRS THE SOUTH). EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY
VEER TO THE E/NE AND DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT LATER IN THE AFTN AS THE
SFC HIGH SHIFTS ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST. SEAS WILL AVG AROUND
3-4 FT ACRS SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS/2-3 FT NORTH...WITH WAVES IN
THE BAY AROUND 2 FT...AND CLOSER TO 1 FT IN THE RIVERS.

ON SAT...WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NC COAST PROGGED TO DRIFT
BACK NORTH (ALTHOUGH STAYING WELL OFFSHORE) AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE NORTHERN MID ATLC COAST. THIS WILL KEEP A
CONTINUED NE FLOW OVER THE AREA SAT...BEFORE SHIFTING MORE TO THE
E/SE SAT NIGHT IN MOST AREAS. SEAS WILL STAY SOMEWHAT ELEVATED IN
THE 3-4 FT RANGE IN THE NE NC COASTAL WATERS...GENLY 2-3 FT
ELSEWHERE WITH BAY WAVES MAINLY AROUND 1 FOOT (2 FT AT THE MOUTH
OF THE BAY). THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY TREND MORE TO THE S/SE SUN AFTN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING AOB 10-15KT. SEAS
SHOULD AVERAGE 2-3 FT...WITH 1-2 FT WAVES FOR THE BAY/RIVERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD/JDM
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LKB/WRS
MARINE...LKB




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281052 AAA
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
401 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES FROM THE NW TODAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
STALLED SE OF THE AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF ALBEMARLE SOUND ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS COASTAL NE NC.
CLOUDS BREAK UP IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES EVERYWHERE THE REST OF TODAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY
NE/ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED AGAIN
TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTN WHEN GUSTS WILL AVERAGE
15-20 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S INLAND...UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S CLOSER
TO THE COAST DUE TO BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRACK NE THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL KEEP THE LOW WELL
OFFSHORE AS IT SKIRTS BY THE NC OUTER BANKS SATURDAY AND THEN OUT
TO SEA BY SUNDAY MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND THE CIRCULATION
MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS ALONG/SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER...
OTHERWISE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE A WARMING
TREND DURING THIS TIME FRAME. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 60S (NEAR 70 AT
THE BEACHES). HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND/
LOW-MID 80S AT THE COAST WITH ONSHORE WINDS PERSISTING. EXPECT
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SATURDAY...AND
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE FROM TROUGHING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST STREAMS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.

WITH THE WEAK SFC LOW OFF THE COAST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER
OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY RATHER THAN SLIDE OFF THE COAST AS
PREVIOUS DAYS OF MODEL RUNS HAD DEPICTED. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS
KEEP A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
MOVING UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE TN VALLEY. THIS SET UP
WILL FAVOR A RETURN TO SW WINDS AND SUPPORT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
MOISTURE FROM THE S-SW...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF CLOUDS RATHER THAN
RAINFALL. EXPECT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND
90 DEGREES INLAND AND IN THE MID-UPPER 80S AT THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY
BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A
WEAK TROUGH IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH
THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO
THE SERN US. WHETHER THIS IS IN THE FORM OF A PLUME OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE OR SOME FORM OF TS ERIKA IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME. NONETHELESS...THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP DEEP
MOISTURE SUPPRESSED S OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. GIVEN THIS...
ONLY DIURNAL POPS ARE FORECAST...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SRN VA/NE NC
AND IN THE 20-30% RANGE. WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID NEXT WEEK
WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S...WITH MID 80S AT
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES BUILDING INTO THE REGION TODAY...WITH VFR
CONDS. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09Z-12Z THIS MORNING OVER
INTERIOR VA/MD BUT WILL GENLY NOT AFFECT TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...
BKN/OVC CIGS 5-10 K FT OVER FAR SE VA/NE NC WILL GRADUALLY ERODE
LATER THIS MORNING. LIGHT N/NE WINDS...WILL GRADUALLY TURN OUT OF
THE E/NE AND WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS EXCEPT AT KORF/KECG WHERE A
FEW GUSTS TO 15 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTN.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL NEAR/JUST N/E OF THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE WKND...WITH GENLY DRY/VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING AND WINDS TO AVG 10 KT OR LESS. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY
EARLY AM FOG EACH DAY SAT-MON.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING AND IS
LEADING TO SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. WILL
STILL TEND TO SEE AN INCREASE OF A FEW KT AROUND DAYBREAK THAT THE
N/NE FLOW WILL AVG 10-15 KT ACRS MOST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING
(PROBABLY A TAD HIGHER ACRS THE SOUTH). EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY
VEER TO THE E/NE AND DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT LATER IN THE AFTN AS THE
SFC HIGH SHIFTS ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST. SEAS WILL AVG AROUND
3-4 FT ACRS SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS/2-3 FT NORTH...WITH WAVES IN
THE BAY AROUND 2 FT...AND CLOSER TO 1 FT IN THE RIVERS.

ON SAT...WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NC COAST PROGGED TO DRIFT
BACK NORTH (ALTHOUGH STAYING WELL OFFSHORE) AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE NORTHERN MID ATLC COAST. THIS WILL KEEP A
CONTINUED NE FLOW OVER THE AREA SAT...BEFORE SHIFTING MORE TO THE
E/SE SAT NIGHT IN MOST AREAS. SEAS WILL STAY SOMEWHAT ELEVATED IN
THE 3-4 FT RANGE IN THE NE NC COASTAL WATERS...GENLY 2-3 FT
ELSEWHERE WITH BAY WAVES MAINLY AROUND 1 FOOT (2 FT AT THE MOUTH
OF THE BAY). THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY TREND MORE TO THE S/SE SUN AFTN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING AOB 10-15KT. SEAS
SHOULD AVERAGE 2-3 FT...WITH 1-2 FT WAVES FOR THE BAY/RIVERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD/JDM
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LKB/WRS
MARINE...LKB



000
FXUS61 KRNK 280829
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
429 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TODAY...SHIFTING
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST BY THIS EVENING. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE NORTH ALONG THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...MAINLY
TO THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN STRENGTHEN IN THE WAKE
OF THIS FEATURE...RESULTING IN DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT FRIDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH HELD IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING...WHILE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING GRADUALLY NUDGES ITS WAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. IN THE LOW LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...MAKING FOR
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDFLOW ACROSS OUR AREA. WHILE OUR ATMOSPHERE IS
DRY FOR THE MOST PART...DO HAVE A THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE A FEW
THOUSAND FEET OFF THE SURFACE...MAKING FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. THESE CLOUDS
ARE ACTING TO BOTH KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER COMPARED TO
THE PREVIOUS FEW MORNINGS...AND ALSO KEEP VALLEY FOG FORMATION TO
A MINIMUM.

AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND...EXPECT OUR WINDS TO
BECOME EASTERLY BY LUNCHTIME...AND SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE
EVENING. THE MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW
ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA...PUSHING IT UPSLOPE INTO THE
MOUNTAINS. AS SUCH...WE CAN EXPECT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE RIDGES.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...PERHAPS BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY AT TIMES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. SLIGHTLY WARMER TODAY AS
WELL THANKS TO THE INCREASED INFLUENCE FROM THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER
70S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOW/MID 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

SOUTHEASTERLY WINDFLOW WILL REMAIN FOR TONIGHT...PUSHING MARINE
MOISTURE INTO THE MOUNTAINS. AS SUCH...EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...
POSSIBLY WITH AN ISOLATED BRIEF SHOWER. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT FRIDAY...

FORECAST BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNCERTAIN DURING THIS PERIOD...FOCUSED
PRIMARILY AROUND THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA
LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SEVERAL WEAK FEATURES DRIVING THE SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. A BROAD...REMNANT UPPER TROUGH LINGERS
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S...WHILE A NEW UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. BOTH SYSTEMS UNDERLIE A BROAD UPPER RIDGE PRESENT AND
BUILDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...BOTH FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND THE CENTRAL U.S. MEANWHILE...A TROUGH/EARLIER WEEK FRONTAL
PASSAGE...LINGERS ALONG THE NC/SC COAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
WEAK REMNANTS OF FORMER HURRICANE DANNY EVIDENT ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF COASTAL REGION. THE TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE
REGION...BUT WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH AS IT APPROACHES THE
ALLEGHANYS SUN...WITH ONLY A WEAK REMNANT TROUGH LINGERING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY MON. MEANWHILE...SOUTHERLY FLOW
BETWEEN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND THE BROAD UPPER LOW
PERSISTING ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH...WILL ALLOW GULF/TROPICAL MOISTURE
TO GRADUALLY BE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE POOLED/UPLIFTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA...WE SHOULD START TO SEE SLIGHTLY
BETTER COVERAGE EACH DAY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT
REGION. EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE GREATER SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER/MORE
STABLE NORTHEAST FLOW...CONSEQUENTLY LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED. ALL OF THIS IS BEST REPRESENTED BY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WESTERN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY...INCREASING TO CHANCE POPS AND CREEPING
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE BY MONDAY.

850MB TEMPS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS BROAD
UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN 2/3RD OF THE U.S.
850MB TEMPS RISE FROM THEIR CURRENT LEVELS IN THE +10C TO +15C
RANGE...CLOSER TO +20C BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH DEWPOINTS ALSO ON
THE INCREASE...MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM MID TO UPPER 50S MOUNTAINS
TO MID 60S EAST...WITH HIGHS 70S MOUNTAINS TO MID AND UPPER 80S
PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT FRIDAY...

THE FORECAST BEYOND MONDAY IS LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF ERIKA. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH
THE CANADIAN SHOWING A MAJOR HURRICANE TRACKING NORTHWEST INTO OUR
CWA WITH ASSOCIATED WIND/RAIN...WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE LITTLE MORE
THAN A TROPICAL LOW...POTENTIALLY SHEARED INTO TWO PARTS...ONE WHICH
REMAINS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND THE OTHER TRACKING
WESTWARD...EITHER INTO THE MID-SOUTH OR POSSIBLY INTO THE TN VALLEY.
WITH THE CONSIDERABLE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN PLACE...SIMPLY
CANNOT INCLUDE ANY EFFECTS IN THE GRIDS AT THIS POINT. LATEST NHC
TRENDS ARE FOR A WEAKER SYSTEM AND MUCH WILL DEPEND ON ITS INITIAL
INTERACTION WITH THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS BEFORE IT EVEN REACHES THE
U.S. MAINLAND. HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BEYOND DAY
5...WHICH GENERALLY ADVERTISED JUST SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
POPS...HIGHLY DIURNAL IN NATURE...ALL SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON THE
EVENTUAL TRACK AND FATE OF ERIKA.

TEMPS BASICALLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND BROAD RIDGING ALOFT...THUS LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE AIRMASS EXCEPT FOR SLOWLY INCREASING MOISTURE. OVERALL...MIN
AND MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH 850MB TEMPS
HOVERING NEAR +20C THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
60S...A FEW 50S MOUNTAINS...WITH HIGHS 70S MOUNTAINS TO MID AND
UPPER 80S PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE IS PASSING EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING...SHIFTING WINDS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC INCREASINGLY FROM
THE NORTHEAST. CURRENTLY OBSERVING SCT TO BKN CLOUDS FROM THE BLUE
RIDGE WESTWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH BASES IN THE 4KFT TO 6KFT RANGE.
EXPECT CEILINGS TO DROP IN SPOTS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TOWARD
DAWN...RESULTING IN SPOTTY MVFR BASES IN THE 2KFT TO 3KFT RANGE.
WILL ALSO SEE RIVER VALLEY FOG DEVELOP IN SPOTS THAT REMAIN CLOUD-
FREE FOR EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME.

FOG WILL DISSIPATE AND CEILINGS LIFT AFTER 28/14Z AS DAYTIME
HEATING INCREASES. WINDS WILL SHIFT INCREASINGLY EASTERLY THROUGH
LATE MORNING...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY DURING EARLY EVENING...WITH
SPEEDS IN THE 5KT TO 10KT RANGE. WITH WIND DIRECTION BECOMING
UPSLOPE...EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE RIDGES WITH
MAXIMUM AFTERNOON HEATING...HOWEVER LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE IN THE
AREA WILL KEEP COVERAGE LIMITED. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SCT CU ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT...AND SCT TO BKN CU ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AGAIN WITH
BASES IN THE 4KFT TO 6KFT RANGE.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
AS OF 200 AM EDT FRIDAY...

EXPECT A MAINLY VFR FORECAST INTO SUNDAY. MOISTURE GRADUALLY
INCREASES BY THE WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE.
TYPICAL LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING MVFR TO LIFR FOG THREAT AT
LWB/BCB/LYH THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...JH/RAB
AVIATION...DS/NF



000
FXUS61 KRNK 280829
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
429 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TODAY...SHIFTING
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST BY THIS EVENING. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE NORTH ALONG THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...MAINLY
TO THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN STRENGTHEN IN THE WAKE
OF THIS FEATURE...RESULTING IN DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT FRIDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH HELD IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING...WHILE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING GRADUALLY NUDGES ITS WAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. IN THE LOW LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...MAKING FOR
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDFLOW ACROSS OUR AREA. WHILE OUR ATMOSPHERE IS
DRY FOR THE MOST PART...DO HAVE A THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE A FEW
THOUSAND FEET OFF THE SURFACE...MAKING FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. THESE CLOUDS
ARE ACTING TO BOTH KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER COMPARED TO
THE PREVIOUS FEW MORNINGS...AND ALSO KEEP VALLEY FOG FORMATION TO
A MINIMUM.

AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND...EXPECT OUR WINDS TO
BECOME EASTERLY BY LUNCHTIME...AND SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE
EVENING. THE MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW
ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA...PUSHING IT UPSLOPE INTO THE
MOUNTAINS. AS SUCH...WE CAN EXPECT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE RIDGES.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...PERHAPS BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY AT TIMES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. SLIGHTLY WARMER TODAY AS
WELL THANKS TO THE INCREASED INFLUENCE FROM THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER
70S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOW/MID 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

SOUTHEASTERLY WINDFLOW WILL REMAIN FOR TONIGHT...PUSHING MARINE
MOISTURE INTO THE MOUNTAINS. AS SUCH...EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...
POSSIBLY WITH AN ISOLATED BRIEF SHOWER. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT FRIDAY...

FORECAST BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNCERTAIN DURING THIS PERIOD...FOCUSED
PRIMARILY AROUND THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA
LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SEVERAL WEAK FEATURES DRIVING THE SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. A BROAD...REMNANT UPPER TROUGH LINGERS
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S...WHILE A NEW UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. BOTH SYSTEMS UNDERLIE A BROAD UPPER RIDGE PRESENT AND
BUILDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...BOTH FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND THE CENTRAL U.S. MEANWHILE...A TROUGH/EARLIER WEEK FRONTAL
PASSAGE...LINGERS ALONG THE NC/SC COAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
WEAK REMNANTS OF FORMER HURRICANE DANNY EVIDENT ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF COASTAL REGION. THE TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE
REGION...BUT WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH AS IT APPROACHES THE
ALLEGHANYS SUN...WITH ONLY A WEAK REMNANT TROUGH LINGERING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY MON. MEANWHILE...SOUTHERLY FLOW
BETWEEN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND THE BROAD UPPER LOW
PERSISTING ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH...WILL ALLOW GULF/TROPICAL MOISTURE
TO GRADUALLY BE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE POOLED/UPLIFTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA...WE SHOULD START TO SEE SLIGHTLY
BETTER COVERAGE EACH DAY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT
REGION. EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE GREATER SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER/MORE
STABLE NORTHEAST FLOW...CONSEQUENTLY LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED. ALL OF THIS IS BEST REPRESENTED BY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WESTERN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY...INCREASING TO CHANCE POPS AND CREEPING
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE BY MONDAY.

850MB TEMPS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS BROAD
UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN 2/3RD OF THE U.S.
850MB TEMPS RISE FROM THEIR CURRENT LEVELS IN THE +10C TO +15C
RANGE...CLOSER TO +20C BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH DEWPOINTS ALSO ON
THE INCREASE...MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM MID TO UPPER 50S MOUNTAINS
TO MID 60S EAST...WITH HIGHS 70S MOUNTAINS TO MID AND UPPER 80S
PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT FRIDAY...

THE FORECAST BEYOND MONDAY IS LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF ERIKA. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH
THE CANADIAN SHOWING A MAJOR HURRICANE TRACKING NORTHWEST INTO OUR
CWA WITH ASSOCIATED WIND/RAIN...WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE LITTLE MORE
THAN A TROPICAL LOW...POTENTIALLY SHEARED INTO TWO PARTS...ONE WHICH
REMAINS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND THE OTHER TRACKING
WESTWARD...EITHER INTO THE MID-SOUTH OR POSSIBLY INTO THE TN VALLEY.
WITH THE CONSIDERABLE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN PLACE...SIMPLY
CANNOT INCLUDE ANY EFFECTS IN THE GRIDS AT THIS POINT. LATEST NHC
TRENDS ARE FOR A WEAKER SYSTEM AND MUCH WILL DEPEND ON ITS INITIAL
INTERACTION WITH THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS BEFORE IT EVEN REACHES THE
U.S. MAINLAND. HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BEYOND DAY
5...WHICH GENERALLY ADVERTISED JUST SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
POPS...HIGHLY DIURNAL IN NATURE...ALL SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON THE
EVENTUAL TRACK AND FATE OF ERIKA.

TEMPS BASICALLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND BROAD RIDGING ALOFT...THUS LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE AIRMASS EXCEPT FOR SLOWLY INCREASING MOISTURE. OVERALL...MIN
AND MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH 850MB TEMPS
HOVERING NEAR +20C THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
60S...A FEW 50S MOUNTAINS...WITH HIGHS 70S MOUNTAINS TO MID AND
UPPER 80S PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE IS PASSING EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING...SHIFTING WINDS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC INCREASINGLY FROM
THE NORTHEAST. CURRENTLY OBSERVING SCT TO BKN CLOUDS FROM THE BLUE
RIDGE WESTWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH BASES IN THE 4KFT TO 6KFT RANGE.
EXPECT CEILINGS TO DROP IN SPOTS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TOWARD
DAWN...RESULTING IN SPOTTY MVFR BASES IN THE 2KFT TO 3KFT RANGE.
WILL ALSO SEE RIVER VALLEY FOG DEVELOP IN SPOTS THAT REMAIN CLOUD-
FREE FOR EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME.

FOG WILL DISSIPATE AND CEILINGS LIFT AFTER 28/14Z AS DAYTIME
HEATING INCREASES. WINDS WILL SHIFT INCREASINGLY EASTERLY THROUGH
LATE MORNING...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY DURING EARLY EVENING...WITH
SPEEDS IN THE 5KT TO 10KT RANGE. WITH WIND DIRECTION BECOMING
UPSLOPE...EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE RIDGES WITH
MAXIMUM AFTERNOON HEATING...HOWEVER LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE IN THE
AREA WILL KEEP COVERAGE LIMITED. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SCT CU ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT...AND SCT TO BKN CU ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AGAIN WITH
BASES IN THE 4KFT TO 6KFT RANGE.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
AS OF 200 AM EDT FRIDAY...

EXPECT A MAINLY VFR FORECAST INTO SUNDAY. MOISTURE GRADUALLY
INCREASES BY THE WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE.
TYPICAL LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING MVFR TO LIFR FOG THREAT AT
LWB/BCB/LYH THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...JH/RAB
AVIATION...DS/NF



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280801
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
401 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES FROM THE NW TODAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
STALLED SE OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH SHOWERS HAVE COME TO AN
END ACROSS NE NC...ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF ALBEMARLE SOUND ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS FAR SE VA/NE NC.
CLOUDS BREAK UP IN THIS AREA BY AFTN WITH SKIES BECOMING
MOSTLY SUNNY...OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE ALL DAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY NE/ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE COAST
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED AGAIN TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTN WHEN GUSTS WILL AVERAGE 15-20 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S INLAND...
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO BREEZY
ONSHORE WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRACK NE THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL KEEP THE LOW WELL
OFFSHORE AS IT SKIRTS BY THE NC OUTER BANKS SATURDAY AND THEN OUT
TO SEA BY SUNDAY MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND THE CIRCULATION
MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS ALONG/SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER...
OTHERWISE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE A WARMING
TREND DURING THIS TIME FRAME. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 60S (NEAR 70 AT
THE BEACHES). HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND/
LOW-MID 80S AT THE COAST WITH ONSHORE WINDS PERSISTING. EXPECT
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SATURDAY...AND
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE FROM TROUGHING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST STREAMS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.

WITH THE WEAK SFC LOW OFF THE COAST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER
OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY RATHER THAN SLIDE OFF THE COAST AS
PREVIOUS DAYS OF MODEL RUNS HAD DEPICTED. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS
KEEP A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
MOVING UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE TN VALLEY. THIS SET UP
WILL FAVOR A RETURN TO SW WINDS AND SUPPORT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
MOISTURE FROM THE S-SW...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF CLOUDS RATHER THAN
RAINFALL. EXPECT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND
90 DEGREES INLAND AND IN THE MID-UPPER 80S AT THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY
BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A
WEAK TROUGH IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH
THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO
THE SERN US. WHETHER THIS IS IN THE FORM OF A PLUME OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE OR SOME FORM OF TS ERIKA IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME. NONETHELESS...THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP DEEP
MOISTURE SUPPRESSED S OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. GIVEN THIS...
ONLY DIURNAL POPS ARE FORECAST...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SRN VA/NE NC
AND IN THE 20-30% RANGE. WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID NEXT WEEK
WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S...WITH MID 80S AT
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES BUILDING INTO THE REGION TODAY...WITH VFR
CONDS. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09Z-12Z THIS MORNING OVER
INTERIOR VA/MD BUT WILL GENLY NOT AFFECT TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...
BKN/OVC CIGS 5-10 K FT OVER FAR SE VA/NE NC WILL GRADUALLY ERODE
LATER THIS MORNING. LIGHT N/NE WINDS...WILL GRADUALLY TURN OUT OF
THE E/NE AND WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS EXCEPT AT KORF/KECG WHERE A
FEW GUSTS TO 15 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTN.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL NEAR/JUST N/E OF THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE WKND...WITH GENLY DRY/VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING AND WINDS TO AVG 10 KT OR LESS. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY
EARLY AM FOG EACH DAY SAT-MON.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING AND IS
LEADING TO SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. WILL
STILL TEND TO SEE AN INCREASE OF A FEW KT AROUND DAYBREAK THAT THE
N/NE FLOW WILL AVG 10-15 KT ACRS MOST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING
(PROBABLY A TAD HIGHER ACRS THE SOUTH). EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY
VEER TO THE E/NE AND DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT LATER IN THE AFTN AS THE
SFC HIGH SHIFTS ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST. SEAS WILL AVG AROUND
3-4 FT ACRS SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS/2-3 FT NORTH...WITH WAVES IN
THE BAY AROUND 2 FT...AND CLOSER TO 1 FT IN THE RIVERS.

ON SAT...WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NC COAST PROGGED TO DRIFT
BACK NORTH (ALTHOUGH STAYING WELL OFFSHORE) AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE NORTHERN MID ATLC COAST. THIS WILL KEEP A
CONTINUED NE FLOW OVER THE AREA SAT...BEFORE SHIFTING MORE TO THE
E/SE SAT NIGHT IN MOST AREAS. SEAS WILL STAY SOMEWHAT ELEVATED IN
THE 3-4 FT RANGE IN THE NE NC COASTAL WATERS...GENLY 2-3 FT
ELSEWHERE WITH BAY WAVES MAINLY AROUND 1 FOOT (2 FT AT THE MOUTH
OF THE BAY). THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY TREND MORE TO THE S/SE SUN AFTN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING AOB 10-15KT. SEAS
SHOULD AVERAGE 2-3 FT...WITH 1-2 FT WAVES FOR THE BAY/RIVERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD/JDM
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LKB/WRS
MARINE...LKB



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280801
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
401 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES FROM THE NW TODAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
STALLED SE OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH SHOWERS HAVE COME TO AN
END ACROSS NE NC...ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF ALBEMARLE SOUND ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS FAR SE VA/NE NC.
CLOUDS BREAK UP IN THIS AREA BY AFTN WITH SKIES BECOMING
MOSTLY SUNNY...OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE ALL DAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY NE/ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE COAST
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED AGAIN TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTN WHEN GUSTS WILL AVERAGE 15-20 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S INLAND...
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO BREEZY
ONSHORE WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRACK NE THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL KEEP THE LOW WELL
OFFSHORE AS IT SKIRTS BY THE NC OUTER BANKS SATURDAY AND THEN OUT
TO SEA BY SUNDAY MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND THE CIRCULATION
MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS ALONG/SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER...
OTHERWISE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE A WARMING
TREND DURING THIS TIME FRAME. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 60S (NEAR 70 AT
THE BEACHES). HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND/
LOW-MID 80S AT THE COAST WITH ONSHORE WINDS PERSISTING. EXPECT
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SATURDAY...AND
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE FROM TROUGHING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST STREAMS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.

WITH THE WEAK SFC LOW OFF THE COAST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER
OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY RATHER THAN SLIDE OFF THE COAST AS
PREVIOUS DAYS OF MODEL RUNS HAD DEPICTED. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS
KEEP A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
MOVING UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE TN VALLEY. THIS SET UP
WILL FAVOR A RETURN TO SW WINDS AND SUPPORT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
MOISTURE FROM THE S-SW...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF CLOUDS RATHER THAN
RAINFALL. EXPECT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND
90 DEGREES INLAND AND IN THE MID-UPPER 80S AT THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY
BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A
WEAK TROUGH IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH
THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO
THE SERN US. WHETHER THIS IS IN THE FORM OF A PLUME OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE OR SOME FORM OF TS ERIKA IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME. NONETHELESS...THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP DEEP
MOISTURE SUPPRESSED S OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. GIVEN THIS...
ONLY DIURNAL POPS ARE FORECAST...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SRN VA/NE NC
AND IN THE 20-30% RANGE. WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID NEXT WEEK
WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S...WITH MID 80S AT
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES BUILDING INTO THE REGION TODAY...WITH VFR
CONDS. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09Z-12Z THIS MORNING OVER
INTERIOR VA/MD BUT WILL GENLY NOT AFFECT TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...
BKN/OVC CIGS 5-10 K FT OVER FAR SE VA/NE NC WILL GRADUALLY ERODE
LATER THIS MORNING. LIGHT N/NE WINDS...WILL GRADUALLY TURN OUT OF
THE E/NE AND WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS EXCEPT AT KORF/KECG WHERE A
FEW GUSTS TO 15 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTN.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL NEAR/JUST N/E OF THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE WKND...WITH GENLY DRY/VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING AND WINDS TO AVG 10 KT OR LESS. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY
EARLY AM FOG EACH DAY SAT-MON.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING AND IS
LEADING TO SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. WILL
STILL TEND TO SEE AN INCREASE OF A FEW KT AROUND DAYBREAK THAT THE
N/NE FLOW WILL AVG 10-15 KT ACRS MOST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING
(PROBABLY A TAD HIGHER ACRS THE SOUTH). EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY
VEER TO THE E/NE AND DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT LATER IN THE AFTN AS THE
SFC HIGH SHIFTS ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST. SEAS WILL AVG AROUND
3-4 FT ACRS SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS/2-3 FT NORTH...WITH WAVES IN
THE BAY AROUND 2 FT...AND CLOSER TO 1 FT IN THE RIVERS.

ON SAT...WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NC COAST PROGGED TO DRIFT
BACK NORTH (ALTHOUGH STAYING WELL OFFSHORE) AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE NORTHERN MID ATLC COAST. THIS WILL KEEP A
CONTINUED NE FLOW OVER THE AREA SAT...BEFORE SHIFTING MORE TO THE
E/SE SAT NIGHT IN MOST AREAS. SEAS WILL STAY SOMEWHAT ELEVATED IN
THE 3-4 FT RANGE IN THE NE NC COASTAL WATERS...GENLY 2-3 FT
ELSEWHERE WITH BAY WAVES MAINLY AROUND 1 FOOT (2 FT AT THE MOUTH
OF THE BAY). THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY TREND MORE TO THE S/SE SUN AFTN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING AOB 10-15KT. SEAS
SHOULD AVERAGE 2-3 FT...WITH 1-2 FT WAVES FOR THE BAY/RIVERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD/JDM
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LKB/WRS
MARINE...LKB




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280801
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
401 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES FROM THE NW TODAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
STALLED SE OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH SHOWERS HAVE COME TO AN
END ACROSS NE NC...ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF ALBEMARLE SOUND ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS FAR SE VA/NE NC.
CLOUDS BREAK UP IN THIS AREA BY AFTN WITH SKIES BECOMING
MOSTLY SUNNY...OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE ALL DAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY NE/ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE COAST
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED AGAIN TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTN WHEN GUSTS WILL AVERAGE 15-20 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S INLAND...
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO BREEZY
ONSHORE WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRACK NE THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL KEEP THE LOW WELL
OFFSHORE AS IT SKIRTS BY THE NC OUTER BANKS SATURDAY AND THEN OUT
TO SEA BY SUNDAY MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND THE CIRCULATION
MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS ALONG/SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER...
OTHERWISE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE A WARMING
TREND DURING THIS TIME FRAME. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 60S (NEAR 70 AT
THE BEACHES). HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND/
LOW-MID 80S AT THE COAST WITH ONSHORE WINDS PERSISTING. EXPECT
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SATURDAY...AND
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE FROM TROUGHING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST STREAMS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.

WITH THE WEAK SFC LOW OFF THE COAST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER
OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY RATHER THAN SLIDE OFF THE COAST AS
PREVIOUS DAYS OF MODEL RUNS HAD DEPICTED. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS
KEEP A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
MOVING UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE TN VALLEY. THIS SET UP
WILL FAVOR A RETURN TO SW WINDS AND SUPPORT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
MOISTURE FROM THE S-SW...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF CLOUDS RATHER THAN
RAINFALL. EXPECT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND
90 DEGREES INLAND AND IN THE MID-UPPER 80S AT THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY
BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A
WEAK TROUGH IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH
THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO
THE SERN US. WHETHER THIS IS IN THE FORM OF A PLUME OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE OR SOME FORM OF TS ERIKA IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME. NONETHELESS...THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP DEEP
MOISTURE SUPPRESSED S OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. GIVEN THIS...
ONLY DIURNAL POPS ARE FORECAST...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SRN VA/NE NC
AND IN THE 20-30% RANGE. WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID NEXT WEEK
WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S...WITH MID 80S AT
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES BUILDING INTO THE REGION TODAY...WITH VFR
CONDS. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09Z-12Z THIS MORNING OVER
INTERIOR VA/MD BUT WILL GENLY NOT AFFECT TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...
BKN/OVC CIGS 5-10 K FT OVER FAR SE VA/NE NC WILL GRADUALLY ERODE
LATER THIS MORNING. LIGHT N/NE WINDS...WILL GRADUALLY TURN OUT OF
THE E/NE AND WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS EXCEPT AT KORF/KECG WHERE A
FEW GUSTS TO 15 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTN.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL NEAR/JUST N/E OF THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE WKND...WITH GENLY DRY/VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING AND WINDS TO AVG 10 KT OR LESS. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY
EARLY AM FOG EACH DAY SAT-MON.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING AND IS
LEADING TO SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. WILL
STILL TEND TO SEE AN INCREASE OF A FEW KT AROUND DAYBREAK THAT THE
N/NE FLOW WILL AVG 10-15 KT ACRS MOST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING
(PROBABLY A TAD HIGHER ACRS THE SOUTH). EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY
VEER TO THE E/NE AND DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT LATER IN THE AFTN AS THE
SFC HIGH SHIFTS ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST. SEAS WILL AVG AROUND
3-4 FT ACRS SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS/2-3 FT NORTH...WITH WAVES IN
THE BAY AROUND 2 FT...AND CLOSER TO 1 FT IN THE RIVERS.

ON SAT...WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NC COAST PROGGED TO DRIFT
BACK NORTH (ALTHOUGH STAYING WELL OFFSHORE) AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE NORTHERN MID ATLC COAST. THIS WILL KEEP A
CONTINUED NE FLOW OVER THE AREA SAT...BEFORE SHIFTING MORE TO THE
E/SE SAT NIGHT IN MOST AREAS. SEAS WILL STAY SOMEWHAT ELEVATED IN
THE 3-4 FT RANGE IN THE NE NC COASTAL WATERS...GENLY 2-3 FT
ELSEWHERE WITH BAY WAVES MAINLY AROUND 1 FOOT (2 FT AT THE MOUTH
OF THE BAY). THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY TREND MORE TO THE S/SE SUN AFTN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING AOB 10-15KT. SEAS
SHOULD AVERAGE 2-3 FT...WITH 1-2 FT WAVES FOR THE BAY/RIVERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD/JDM
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LKB/WRS
MARINE...LKB



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280801
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
401 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES FROM THE NW TODAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
STALLED SE OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH SHOWERS HAVE COME TO AN
END ACROSS NE NC...ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF ALBEMARLE SOUND ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS FAR SE VA/NE NC.
CLOUDS BREAK UP IN THIS AREA BY AFTN WITH SKIES BECOMING
MOSTLY SUNNY...OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE ALL DAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY NE/ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE COAST
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED AGAIN TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTN WHEN GUSTS WILL AVERAGE 15-20 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S INLAND...
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO BREEZY
ONSHORE WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRACK NE THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL KEEP THE LOW WELL
OFFSHORE AS IT SKIRTS BY THE NC OUTER BANKS SATURDAY AND THEN OUT
TO SEA BY SUNDAY MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND THE CIRCULATION
MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS ALONG/SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER...
OTHERWISE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE A WARMING
TREND DURING THIS TIME FRAME. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 60S (NEAR 70 AT
THE BEACHES). HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND/
LOW-MID 80S AT THE COAST WITH ONSHORE WINDS PERSISTING. EXPECT
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SATURDAY...AND
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE FROM TROUGHING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST STREAMS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.

WITH THE WEAK SFC LOW OFF THE COAST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER
OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY RATHER THAN SLIDE OFF THE COAST AS
PREVIOUS DAYS OF MODEL RUNS HAD DEPICTED. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS
KEEP A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
MOVING UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE TN VALLEY. THIS SET UP
WILL FAVOR A RETURN TO SW WINDS AND SUPPORT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
MOISTURE FROM THE S-SW...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF CLOUDS RATHER THAN
RAINFALL. EXPECT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND
90 DEGREES INLAND AND IN THE MID-UPPER 80S AT THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY
BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A
WEAK TROUGH IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH
THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO
THE SERN US. WHETHER THIS IS IN THE FORM OF A PLUME OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE OR SOME FORM OF TS ERIKA IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME. NONETHELESS...THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP DEEP
MOISTURE SUPPRESSED S OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. GIVEN THIS...
ONLY DIURNAL POPS ARE FORECAST...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SRN VA/NE NC
AND IN THE 20-30% RANGE. WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID NEXT WEEK
WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S...WITH MID 80S AT
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES BUILDING INTO THE REGION TODAY...WITH VFR
CONDS. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09Z-12Z THIS MORNING OVER
INTERIOR VA/MD BUT WILL GENLY NOT AFFECT TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...
BKN/OVC CIGS 5-10 K FT OVER FAR SE VA/NE NC WILL GRADUALLY ERODE
LATER THIS MORNING. LIGHT N/NE WINDS...WILL GRADUALLY TURN OUT OF
THE E/NE AND WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS EXCEPT AT KORF/KECG WHERE A
FEW GUSTS TO 15 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTN.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL NEAR/JUST N/E OF THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE WKND...WITH GENLY DRY/VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING AND WINDS TO AVG 10 KT OR LESS. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY
EARLY AM FOG EACH DAY SAT-MON.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING AND IS
LEADING TO SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. WILL
STILL TEND TO SEE AN INCREASE OF A FEW KT AROUND DAYBREAK THAT THE
N/NE FLOW WILL AVG 10-15 KT ACRS MOST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING
(PROBABLY A TAD HIGHER ACRS THE SOUTH). EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY
VEER TO THE E/NE AND DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT LATER IN THE AFTN AS THE
SFC HIGH SHIFTS ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST. SEAS WILL AVG AROUND
3-4 FT ACRS SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS/2-3 FT NORTH...WITH WAVES IN
THE BAY AROUND 2 FT...AND CLOSER TO 1 FT IN THE RIVERS.

ON SAT...WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NC COAST PROGGED TO DRIFT
BACK NORTH (ALTHOUGH STAYING WELL OFFSHORE) AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE NORTHERN MID ATLC COAST. THIS WILL KEEP A
CONTINUED NE FLOW OVER THE AREA SAT...BEFORE SHIFTING MORE TO THE
E/SE SAT NIGHT IN MOST AREAS. SEAS WILL STAY SOMEWHAT ELEVATED IN
THE 3-4 FT RANGE IN THE NE NC COASTAL WATERS...GENLY 2-3 FT
ELSEWHERE WITH BAY WAVES MAINLY AROUND 1 FOOT (2 FT AT THE MOUTH
OF THE BAY). THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY TREND MORE TO THE S/SE SUN AFTN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING AOB 10-15KT. SEAS
SHOULD AVERAGE 2-3 FT...WITH 1-2 FT WAVES FOR THE BAY/RIVERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD/JDM
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LKB/WRS
MARINE...LKB




000
FXUS61 KLWX 280721
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
321 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND
THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE
CENTER CURRENTLY PLACED OVER PA NUDGING EASTWARD LATE IN THE DAY.
COULD SEE PATCHY FOG INITIALLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE
SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND CENTRAL MD.

FOG DISSIPATES AFTR SUNRISE...WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
AREA TODAY. MESO MODELS HINTING AT ISO DEVELOPMENT WITH THE TERRAIN
OF WV/WESTERN VA THIS AFTN...THOUGH FORCING ALOFT LOOKS TO BE
SUBDUED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. AS SUCH...WILL KEEP POPS TO JUST LOW
END SLIGHT CHC OVER THE SW CORNER. TEMPS RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE 80S.

ANOTHER DRY NIGHT...WITH PSBL PATCHY FOG UNDER CLEARING
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND INCRSG LOW LVL MOISTURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH INCRSG
RETURN FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. WHILE MOST OF THE
CWA...ESP EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL REMAIN DRY SAT AND SUN
AFTN...DO SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISO SHOWER OR TSTM BOTH AFTNS
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN VA/EASTERN WV. THERE REMAINS
SOME QUESTION ON HOW DEEP THE MID LVL TROUGH SETS UP SAT...AND
THEREFORE HOW FAR SOUTH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH CAN
EXTEND. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY HAVE CAPPED POPS AT SLIGHT CHC FOR
SAT...AND CHC FOR SUN...DURING THE AFTNS. INCRSG MOISTURE WILL
ALSO LEAD TO YET ANOTHER NIGHT OF POTENTIAL PATCHY FOG SAT NIGHT
IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY...AND VALLEYS OF THE PIEDMONT.

WILL SEE A RETURN TO WAA WITH THE SW-SLY FLOW...RESULTING IN WARMING
TEMPS. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY AVB NORMAL FOR BOTH DAYS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS MID-LVL HGTS RISE NEXT WEEK...REPLACING THE GRTLKS TROF W/ A ERN
CONUS RDG...XPCT A PTTN CHG ACRS THE MID ALTC. FCST WL BE FOR A
HOTTER STRETCH...W/ TEMPS SLGTLY ABV NRML-- MAXT UPR 80S TO NEAR
90F. HUMIDITY LVLS WL BE ON THE RISE TOO...BUT DEWPTS LOOK STICKY
BUT NOT INTOLERABLE-- LWR-MID 60S. MIN-T FCST TAKES ITS CUE FM THESE
PROGGED DEWPTS.

CANNOT RULE OUT DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA IN MEAGER INSTBY ANTICIPATED GIVEN
THE WARMER/MORE HUMID AMS. MTNS WUD BE PREFERRED AS THE TRRN WL
PROVIDE AN ADDED SOURCE OF LIFT. THIS THREAT INCREASES DAILY...ALTHO
AT NO POINT IS IT ALL THAT GREAT. WL SHOW A PROGRESSION FM 20-30
POPS SW OF A CBE-EZF LINE MON PM TO 20-30 POPS AREAWIDE BY THU.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD. PSBL MVFR VIS AT KCHO
AND KMRB EACH NIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG. ANY CONVECTION EACH AFTN
SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE TERMINALS. LIGHT WINDS THRU THE DAY WILL
BECOME SLY SAT-SUN...THOUGH STILL LESS THAN 10 KTS.

OUTSIDE OF LCL PREDAWN FOG...VFR CONDS XPCTD UNDER HIPRES THRU TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THRU SUN NIGHT. PSBL BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTS TO
20 KTS WITH SLY CHANNELING SUN EVENING.

WNDS WL BE LGT UNDER HIPRES...AND SHUD EXHIBIT AN ONSHORE COMPONENT
DURING THE AFTN HRS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/HTS
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...SEARS/HTS
MARINE...SEARS/HTS



000
FXUS61 KLWX 280721
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
321 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND
THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE
CENTER CURRENTLY PLACED OVER PA NUDGING EASTWARD LATE IN THE DAY.
COULD SEE PATCHY FOG INITIALLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE
SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND CENTRAL MD.

FOG DISSIPATES AFTR SUNRISE...WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
AREA TODAY. MESO MODELS HINTING AT ISO DEVELOPMENT WITH THE TERRAIN
OF WV/WESTERN VA THIS AFTN...THOUGH FORCING ALOFT LOOKS TO BE
SUBDUED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. AS SUCH...WILL KEEP POPS TO JUST LOW
END SLIGHT CHC OVER THE SW CORNER. TEMPS RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE 80S.

ANOTHER DRY NIGHT...WITH PSBL PATCHY FOG UNDER CLEARING
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND INCRSG LOW LVL MOISTURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH INCRSG
RETURN FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. WHILE MOST OF THE
CWA...ESP EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL REMAIN DRY SAT AND SUN
AFTN...DO SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISO SHOWER OR TSTM BOTH AFTNS
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN VA/EASTERN WV. THERE REMAINS
SOME QUESTION ON HOW DEEP THE MID LVL TROUGH SETS UP SAT...AND
THEREFORE HOW FAR SOUTH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH CAN
EXTEND. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY HAVE CAPPED POPS AT SLIGHT CHC FOR
SAT...AND CHC FOR SUN...DURING THE AFTNS. INCRSG MOISTURE WILL
ALSO LEAD TO YET ANOTHER NIGHT OF POTENTIAL PATCHY FOG SAT NIGHT
IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY...AND VALLEYS OF THE PIEDMONT.

WILL SEE A RETURN TO WAA WITH THE SW-SLY FLOW...RESULTING IN WARMING
TEMPS. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY AVB NORMAL FOR BOTH DAYS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS MID-LVL HGTS RISE NEXT WEEK...REPLACING THE GRTLKS TROF W/ A ERN
CONUS RDG...XPCT A PTTN CHG ACRS THE MID ALTC. FCST WL BE FOR A
HOTTER STRETCH...W/ TEMPS SLGTLY ABV NRML-- MAXT UPR 80S TO NEAR
90F. HUMIDITY LVLS WL BE ON THE RISE TOO...BUT DEWPTS LOOK STICKY
BUT NOT INTOLERABLE-- LWR-MID 60S. MIN-T FCST TAKES ITS CUE FM THESE
PROGGED DEWPTS.

CANNOT RULE OUT DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA IN MEAGER INSTBY ANTICIPATED GIVEN
THE WARMER/MORE HUMID AMS. MTNS WUD BE PREFERRED AS THE TRRN WL
PROVIDE AN ADDED SOURCE OF LIFT. THIS THREAT INCREASES DAILY...ALTHO
AT NO POINT IS IT ALL THAT GREAT. WL SHOW A PROGRESSION FM 20-30
POPS SW OF A CBE-EZF LINE MON PM TO 20-30 POPS AREAWIDE BY THU.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD. PSBL MVFR VIS AT KCHO
AND KMRB EACH NIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG. ANY CONVECTION EACH AFTN
SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE TERMINALS. LIGHT WINDS THRU THE DAY WILL
BECOME SLY SAT-SUN...THOUGH STILL LESS THAN 10 KTS.

OUTSIDE OF LCL PREDAWN FOG...VFR CONDS XPCTD UNDER HIPRES THRU TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THRU SUN NIGHT. PSBL BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTS TO
20 KTS WITH SLY CHANNELING SUN EVENING.

WNDS WL BE LGT UNDER HIPRES...AND SHUD EXHIBIT AN ONSHORE COMPONENT
DURING THE AFTN HRS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/HTS
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...SEARS/HTS
MARINE...SEARS/HTS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 280721
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
321 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND
THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE
CENTER CURRENTLY PLACED OVER PA NUDGING EASTWARD LATE IN THE DAY.
COULD SEE PATCHY FOG INITIALLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE
SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND CENTRAL MD.

FOG DISSIPATES AFTR SUNRISE...WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
AREA TODAY. MESO MODELS HINTING AT ISO DEVELOPMENT WITH THE TERRAIN
OF WV/WESTERN VA THIS AFTN...THOUGH FORCING ALOFT LOOKS TO BE
SUBDUED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. AS SUCH...WILL KEEP POPS TO JUST LOW
END SLIGHT CHC OVER THE SW CORNER. TEMPS RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE 80S.

ANOTHER DRY NIGHT...WITH PSBL PATCHY FOG UNDER CLEARING
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND INCRSG LOW LVL MOISTURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH INCRSG
RETURN FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. WHILE MOST OF THE
CWA...ESP EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL REMAIN DRY SAT AND SUN
AFTN...DO SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISO SHOWER OR TSTM BOTH AFTNS
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN VA/EASTERN WV. THERE REMAINS
SOME QUESTION ON HOW DEEP THE MID LVL TROUGH SETS UP SAT...AND
THEREFORE HOW FAR SOUTH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH CAN
EXTEND. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY HAVE CAPPED POPS AT SLIGHT CHC FOR
SAT...AND CHC FOR SUN...DURING THE AFTNS. INCRSG MOISTURE WILL
ALSO LEAD TO YET ANOTHER NIGHT OF POTENTIAL PATCHY FOG SAT NIGHT
IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY...AND VALLEYS OF THE PIEDMONT.

WILL SEE A RETURN TO WAA WITH THE SW-SLY FLOW...RESULTING IN WARMING
TEMPS. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY AVB NORMAL FOR BOTH DAYS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS MID-LVL HGTS RISE NEXT WEEK...REPLACING THE GRTLKS TROF W/ A ERN
CONUS RDG...XPCT A PTTN CHG ACRS THE MID ALTC. FCST WL BE FOR A
HOTTER STRETCH...W/ TEMPS SLGTLY ABV NRML-- MAXT UPR 80S TO NEAR
90F. HUMIDITY LVLS WL BE ON THE RISE TOO...BUT DEWPTS LOOK STICKY
BUT NOT INTOLERABLE-- LWR-MID 60S. MIN-T FCST TAKES ITS CUE FM THESE
PROGGED DEWPTS.

CANNOT RULE OUT DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA IN MEAGER INSTBY ANTICIPATED GIVEN
THE WARMER/MORE HUMID AMS. MTNS WUD BE PREFERRED AS THE TRRN WL
PROVIDE AN ADDED SOURCE OF LIFT. THIS THREAT INCREASES DAILY...ALTHO
AT NO POINT IS IT ALL THAT GREAT. WL SHOW A PROGRESSION FM 20-30
POPS SW OF A CBE-EZF LINE MON PM TO 20-30 POPS AREAWIDE BY THU.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD. PSBL MVFR VIS AT KCHO
AND KMRB EACH NIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG. ANY CONVECTION EACH AFTN
SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE TERMINALS. LIGHT WINDS THRU THE DAY WILL
BECOME SLY SAT-SUN...THOUGH STILL LESS THAN 10 KTS.

OUTSIDE OF LCL PREDAWN FOG...VFR CONDS XPCTD UNDER HIPRES THRU TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THRU SUN NIGHT. PSBL BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTS TO
20 KTS WITH SLY CHANNELING SUN EVENING.

WNDS WL BE LGT UNDER HIPRES...AND SHUD EXHIBIT AN ONSHORE COMPONENT
DURING THE AFTN HRS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/HTS
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...SEARS/HTS
MARINE...SEARS/HTS



000
FXUS61 KLWX 280721
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
321 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND
THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE
CENTER CURRENTLY PLACED OVER PA NUDGING EASTWARD LATE IN THE DAY.
COULD SEE PATCHY FOG INITIALLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE
SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND CENTRAL MD.

FOG DISSIPATES AFTR SUNRISE...WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
AREA TODAY. MESO MODELS HINTING AT ISO DEVELOPMENT WITH THE TERRAIN
OF WV/WESTERN VA THIS AFTN...THOUGH FORCING ALOFT LOOKS TO BE
SUBDUED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. AS SUCH...WILL KEEP POPS TO JUST LOW
END SLIGHT CHC OVER THE SW CORNER. TEMPS RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE 80S.

ANOTHER DRY NIGHT...WITH PSBL PATCHY FOG UNDER CLEARING
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND INCRSG LOW LVL MOISTURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH INCRSG
RETURN FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. WHILE MOST OF THE
CWA...ESP EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL REMAIN DRY SAT AND SUN
AFTN...DO SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISO SHOWER OR TSTM BOTH AFTNS
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN VA/EASTERN WV. THERE REMAINS
SOME QUESTION ON HOW DEEP THE MID LVL TROUGH SETS UP SAT...AND
THEREFORE HOW FAR SOUTH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH CAN
EXTEND. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY HAVE CAPPED POPS AT SLIGHT CHC FOR
SAT...AND CHC FOR SUN...DURING THE AFTNS. INCRSG MOISTURE WILL
ALSO LEAD TO YET ANOTHER NIGHT OF POTENTIAL PATCHY FOG SAT NIGHT
IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY...AND VALLEYS OF THE PIEDMONT.

WILL SEE A RETURN TO WAA WITH THE SW-SLY FLOW...RESULTING IN WARMING
TEMPS. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY AVB NORMAL FOR BOTH DAYS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS MID-LVL HGTS RISE NEXT WEEK...REPLACING THE GRTLKS TROF W/ A ERN
CONUS RDG...XPCT A PTTN CHG ACRS THE MID ALTC. FCST WL BE FOR A
HOTTER STRETCH...W/ TEMPS SLGTLY ABV NRML-- MAXT UPR 80S TO NEAR
90F. HUMIDITY LVLS WL BE ON THE RISE TOO...BUT DEWPTS LOOK STICKY
BUT NOT INTOLERABLE-- LWR-MID 60S. MIN-T FCST TAKES ITS CUE FM THESE
PROGGED DEWPTS.

CANNOT RULE OUT DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA IN MEAGER INSTBY ANTICIPATED GIVEN
THE WARMER/MORE HUMID AMS. MTNS WUD BE PREFERRED AS THE TRRN WL
PROVIDE AN ADDED SOURCE OF LIFT. THIS THREAT INCREASES DAILY...ALTHO
AT NO POINT IS IT ALL THAT GREAT. WL SHOW A PROGRESSION FM 20-30
POPS SW OF A CBE-EZF LINE MON PM TO 20-30 POPS AREAWIDE BY THU.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD. PSBL MVFR VIS AT KCHO
AND KMRB EACH NIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG. ANY CONVECTION EACH AFTN
SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE TERMINALS. LIGHT WINDS THRU THE DAY WILL
BECOME SLY SAT-SUN...THOUGH STILL LESS THAN 10 KTS.

OUTSIDE OF LCL PREDAWN FOG...VFR CONDS XPCTD UNDER HIPRES THRU TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THRU SUN NIGHT. PSBL BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTS TO
20 KTS WITH SLY CHANNELING SUN EVENING.

WNDS WL BE LGT UNDER HIPRES...AND SHUD EXHIBIT AN ONSHORE COMPONENT
DURING THE AFTN HRS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/HTS
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...SEARS/HTS
MARINE...SEARS/HTS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 280611
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
211 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AND REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA INTO SATURDAY. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE NORTH ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS...MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE RESULTING IN
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1000 PM EDT THURSDAY...

CLOUD COVER PERSISTS ALONG THE EASTERN...UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE
MOUNTAINS FROM NORTHWEST NC TO SOUTHEAST WV. ALL INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE WITH AN INTENSIFYING MARINE INVERSION
AROUND 700MB SUPPORTED BY EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. WITH NO CHANGE
IN THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION...THIS PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST. THIS
COMBINED WITH SLOWLY INCREASING DEWPOINTS SHOULD HOLD MIN TEMPS UP
A FEW DEGREES TONIGHT IN THE WEST. LESS CLOUDS IN THE EAST SHOULD
GENERALLY SUPPORT ADVERTISED MIN TEMPS. OTHER THAN THESE CHANGES
TO THE TEMP/MIN T/SKY GRIDS...SO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED AT THIS
TIME.

AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...

WITH NO MAJOR SYNOPTIC CHANGES WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE RELATIVELY QUIET
WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
SLIDING BY TO OUR NORTH AND GIVING US LIGHT ELY/NELY WINDS...WHILE A
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FEATURING WEAK TROFING ALOFT WILL KEEP SOME SHORT
WAVE ENERGY FLOWING THROUGH THE REGION. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A
FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CU FIELD ACROSS THE REGION BUT AS OF EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON RADAR DOES NOT INDICATE ANY SHOWERS. HOWEVER...BELIEVE THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH OROGRAPHIC FORCING ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO
GENERATE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO. WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE FAR WEST WITH ANY SHOWERS DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET.
OVERNIGHT SHOULD SEE SOME FOG FORMATION AGAIN MAINLY IN THE VALLEYS
WEST OF THE RIDGE. FRIDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO
WHAT WE HAVE TODAY WITH ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON SHOWER
WEST OF THE RIDGE.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WITH LOWS AROUND 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT TO THE LOW/MID 50S WEST OF THE
RIDGE...AND HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S EAST TO GENERALLY MIDDLE 70S WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT THURSDAY...

RIDGING BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN DOMINANT TO START THE
WEEKEND WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY STAYING TO THE SOUTH/WEST
OF THE REGION INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THIS SEEN IN THE LATEST MODELS
INCLUDING FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT SHOW A MUCH DRIER COLUMN ALOFT THAN
SEEN FROM YESTERDAY. THEREFORE KEPT POPS OUT FRIDAY NIGHT AND CUT BACK
TO MORE ISOLATED MOUNTAIN COVERAGE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES WEST.

UPPER TROUGH SLIDING IN FROM THE NW BY SUNDAY WILL CAUSE HEIGHTS TO
LOWER WHILE IN TURN SCOOPING UP A WEAK SHORTWAVE FROM THE SOUTH ALONG
AN AXIS OF HIGHER PWATS. THIS WAVE ALONG WITH SOME UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO
THEN SLIDE NORTH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING A
DECENT AMOUNT OF WEAK LIFT DESPITE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.
AGAIN THINK ENOUGH TO BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS IN FROM THE SOUTH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERHAPS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ESPECIALLY
WESTERN HALF SUNDAY. COULD EVENTUALLY GO TO LOW LIKELY POPS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BUT GIVEN TREND OF MOISTURE/UVV SLIDING FARTHER WEST WILL
HOLD WITH HIGHER CHANCE POPS...EXCEPT MAINLY SLIGHT POPS PIEDMONT.

LITTLE CHANGE TO GOING TEMPS EXCEPT TO GO A BIT COOLER WEST UNDER MORE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS SUNDAY...OTHERWISE CLEAR/PC WITH HIGHS LOW/MID 80S AND
LOWS 58-65.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT THURSDAY...

WEAKNESS ALOFT SPLITTING THROUGH THE UPPER EASTERN RIDGE WILL BE ALONG
THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT PRIOR TO PINCHING OFF ALLOWING A WEAK
UPPER LOW TO SHIFT TO THE SW BEFORE HEIGHTS REBUILD EARLY NEXT WEEK
NORTH OF ERIKA. THIS COMBINED WITH A PIECE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
SLIDING UP FROM THE SOUTH...AND HIGHER PWATS SUPPORTS BETTER CHANCES OF
CONVECTION SUNDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE MOUNTAIN CHAIN. HOWEVER GIVEN WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IN PLACE...WONT
GO MUCH HIGHER THAN MEDIUM CHANCES WEST INTO MONDAY AND KEEP MOSTLY
ISOLATED FAR EAST. PASSING OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD ALLOW RIDGING ALOFT
TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST...AND ENHANCED BY LIKELY
SUBSIDENCE TO THE NORTH OF ERIKA OFF THE FLORIDA/SE COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THUS EXPECTING A GRADUAL DECREASE IN POPS STARTING TUESDAY
WITH PERHAPS ONLY ISOLATED MOUNTAIN COVERAGE AT BEST BY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. HOWEVER PENDING TRACK OF ERIKA COULD SEE ENOUGH MOISTURE
PUSHED INTO THE PIEDMONT WITHIN THE EASTERLY FETCH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST ON DAY7 SO KEPT MAINLY ISOLATED POPS
IN SPOTS. OTHERWISE MORE CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THEN PC TO
MOSTLY SUNNY AND MOSTLY CLEAR AT NIGHT INTO MIDWEEK FOR NOW.

TEMPS BASICALLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS EXCEPT FOR
INCREASING MOISTURE. THUS RUNNING WITH MAINLY LOW 80S WEST TO MID/UPPER
80S EAST...WITH OVERALL LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S...CLOSER TO THE WARMER
EC MOS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE IS PASSING EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING...SHIFTING WINDS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC INCREASINGLY FROM
THE NORTHEAST. CURRENTLY OBSERVING SCT TO BKN CLOUDS FROM THE BLUE
RIDGE WESTWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH BASES IN THE 4KFT TO 6KFT RANGE.
EXPECT CEILINGS TO DROP IN SPOTS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TOWARD
DAWN...RESULTING IN SPOTTY MVFR BASES IN THE 2KFT TO 3KFT RANGE.
WILL ALSO SEE RIVER VALLEY FOG DEVELOP IN SPOTS THAT REMAIN CLOUD-
FREE FOR EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME.

FOG WILL DISSIPATE AND CEILINGS LIFT AFTER 28/14Z AS DAYTIME
HEATING INCREASES. WINDS WILL SHIFT INCREASINGLY EASTERLY THROUGH
LATE MORNING...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY DURING EARLY EVENING...WITH
SPEEDS IN THE 5KT TO 10KT RANGE. WITH WIND DIRECTION BECOMING
UPSLOPE...EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE RIDGES WITH
MAXIMUM AFTERNOON HEATING...HOWEVER LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE IN THE
AREA WILL KEEP COVERAGE LIMITED. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SCT CU ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT...AND SCT TO BKN CU ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AGAIN WITH
BASES IN THE 4KFT TO 6KFT RANGE.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
AS OF 200 AM EDT FRIDAY...

EXPECT A MAINLY VFR FORECAST INTO SUNDAY. MOISTURE GRADUALLY
INCREASES BY THE WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE.
TYPICAL LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING MVFR TO LIFR FOG THREAT AT
LWB/BCB/LYH THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...MBS/RAB
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...DS/NF




000
FXUS61 KRNK 280611
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
211 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AND REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA INTO SATURDAY. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE NORTH ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS...MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE RESULTING IN
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1000 PM EDT THURSDAY...

CLOUD COVER PERSISTS ALONG THE EASTERN...UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE
MOUNTAINS FROM NORTHWEST NC TO SOUTHEAST WV. ALL INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE WITH AN INTENSIFYING MARINE INVERSION
AROUND 700MB SUPPORTED BY EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. WITH NO CHANGE
IN THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION...THIS PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST. THIS
COMBINED WITH SLOWLY INCREASING DEWPOINTS SHOULD HOLD MIN TEMPS UP
A FEW DEGREES TONIGHT IN THE WEST. LESS CLOUDS IN THE EAST SHOULD
GENERALLY SUPPORT ADVERTISED MIN TEMPS. OTHER THAN THESE CHANGES
TO THE TEMP/MIN T/SKY GRIDS...SO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED AT THIS
TIME.

AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...

WITH NO MAJOR SYNOPTIC CHANGES WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE RELATIVELY QUIET
WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
SLIDING BY TO OUR NORTH AND GIVING US LIGHT ELY/NELY WINDS...WHILE A
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FEATURING WEAK TROFING ALOFT WILL KEEP SOME SHORT
WAVE ENERGY FLOWING THROUGH THE REGION. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A
FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CU FIELD ACROSS THE REGION BUT AS OF EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON RADAR DOES NOT INDICATE ANY SHOWERS. HOWEVER...BELIEVE THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH OROGRAPHIC FORCING ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO
GENERATE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO. WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE FAR WEST WITH ANY SHOWERS DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET.
OVERNIGHT SHOULD SEE SOME FOG FORMATION AGAIN MAINLY IN THE VALLEYS
WEST OF THE RIDGE. FRIDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO
WHAT WE HAVE TODAY WITH ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON SHOWER
WEST OF THE RIDGE.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WITH LOWS AROUND 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT TO THE LOW/MID 50S WEST OF THE
RIDGE...AND HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S EAST TO GENERALLY MIDDLE 70S WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT THURSDAY...

RIDGING BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN DOMINANT TO START THE
WEEKEND WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY STAYING TO THE SOUTH/WEST
OF THE REGION INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THIS SEEN IN THE LATEST MODELS
INCLUDING FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT SHOW A MUCH DRIER COLUMN ALOFT THAN
SEEN FROM YESTERDAY. THEREFORE KEPT POPS OUT FRIDAY NIGHT AND CUT BACK
TO MORE ISOLATED MOUNTAIN COVERAGE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES WEST.

UPPER TROUGH SLIDING IN FROM THE NW BY SUNDAY WILL CAUSE HEIGHTS TO
LOWER WHILE IN TURN SCOOPING UP A WEAK SHORTWAVE FROM THE SOUTH ALONG
AN AXIS OF HIGHER PWATS. THIS WAVE ALONG WITH SOME UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO
THEN SLIDE NORTH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING A
DECENT AMOUNT OF WEAK LIFT DESPITE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.
AGAIN THINK ENOUGH TO BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS IN FROM THE SOUTH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERHAPS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ESPECIALLY
WESTERN HALF SUNDAY. COULD EVENTUALLY GO TO LOW LIKELY POPS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BUT GIVEN TREND OF MOISTURE/UVV SLIDING FARTHER WEST WILL
HOLD WITH HIGHER CHANCE POPS...EXCEPT MAINLY SLIGHT POPS PIEDMONT.

LITTLE CHANGE TO GOING TEMPS EXCEPT TO GO A BIT COOLER WEST UNDER MORE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS SUNDAY...OTHERWISE CLEAR/PC WITH HIGHS LOW/MID 80S AND
LOWS 58-65.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT THURSDAY...

WEAKNESS ALOFT SPLITTING THROUGH THE UPPER EASTERN RIDGE WILL BE ALONG
THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT PRIOR TO PINCHING OFF ALLOWING A WEAK
UPPER LOW TO SHIFT TO THE SW BEFORE HEIGHTS REBUILD EARLY NEXT WEEK
NORTH OF ERIKA. THIS COMBINED WITH A PIECE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
SLIDING UP FROM THE SOUTH...AND HIGHER PWATS SUPPORTS BETTER CHANCES OF
CONVECTION SUNDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE MOUNTAIN CHAIN. HOWEVER GIVEN WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IN PLACE...WONT
GO MUCH HIGHER THAN MEDIUM CHANCES WEST INTO MONDAY AND KEEP MOSTLY
ISOLATED FAR EAST. PASSING OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD ALLOW RIDGING ALOFT
TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST...AND ENHANCED BY LIKELY
SUBSIDENCE TO THE NORTH OF ERIKA OFF THE FLORIDA/SE COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THUS EXPECTING A GRADUAL DECREASE IN POPS STARTING TUESDAY
WITH PERHAPS ONLY ISOLATED MOUNTAIN COVERAGE AT BEST BY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. HOWEVER PENDING TRACK OF ERIKA COULD SEE ENOUGH MOISTURE
PUSHED INTO THE PIEDMONT WITHIN THE EASTERLY FETCH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST ON DAY7 SO KEPT MAINLY ISOLATED POPS
IN SPOTS. OTHERWISE MORE CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THEN PC TO
MOSTLY SUNNY AND MOSTLY CLEAR AT NIGHT INTO MIDWEEK FOR NOW.

TEMPS BASICALLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS EXCEPT FOR
INCREASING MOISTURE. THUS RUNNING WITH MAINLY LOW 80S WEST TO MID/UPPER
80S EAST...WITH OVERALL LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S...CLOSER TO THE WARMER
EC MOS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE IS PASSING EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING...SHIFTING WINDS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC INCREASINGLY FROM
THE NORTHEAST. CURRENTLY OBSERVING SCT TO BKN CLOUDS FROM THE BLUE
RIDGE WESTWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH BASES IN THE 4KFT TO 6KFT RANGE.
EXPECT CEILINGS TO DROP IN SPOTS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TOWARD
DAWN...RESULTING IN SPOTTY MVFR BASES IN THE 2KFT TO 3KFT RANGE.
WILL ALSO SEE RIVER VALLEY FOG DEVELOP IN SPOTS THAT REMAIN CLOUD-
FREE FOR EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME.

FOG WILL DISSIPATE AND CEILINGS LIFT AFTER 28/14Z AS DAYTIME
HEATING INCREASES. WINDS WILL SHIFT INCREASINGLY EASTERLY THROUGH
LATE MORNING...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY DURING EARLY EVENING...WITH
SPEEDS IN THE 5KT TO 10KT RANGE. WITH WIND DIRECTION BECOMING
UPSLOPE...EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE RIDGES WITH
MAXIMUM AFTERNOON HEATING...HOWEVER LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE IN THE
AREA WILL KEEP COVERAGE LIMITED. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SCT CU ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT...AND SCT TO BKN CU ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AGAIN WITH
BASES IN THE 4KFT TO 6KFT RANGE.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
AS OF 200 AM EDT FRIDAY...

EXPECT A MAINLY VFR FORECAST INTO SUNDAY. MOISTURE GRADUALLY
INCREASES BY THE WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE.
TYPICAL LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING MVFR TO LIFR FOG THREAT AT
LWB/BCB/LYH THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...MBS/RAB
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...DS/NF



000
FXUS61 KRNK 280611
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
211 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AND REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA INTO SATURDAY. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE NORTH ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS...MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE RESULTING IN
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1000 PM EDT THURSDAY...

CLOUD COVER PERSISTS ALONG THE EASTERN...UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE
MOUNTAINS FROM NORTHWEST NC TO SOUTHEAST WV. ALL INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE WITH AN INTENSIFYING MARINE INVERSION
AROUND 700MB SUPPORTED BY EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. WITH NO CHANGE
IN THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION...THIS PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST. THIS
COMBINED WITH SLOWLY INCREASING DEWPOINTS SHOULD HOLD MIN TEMPS UP
A FEW DEGREES TONIGHT IN THE WEST. LESS CLOUDS IN THE EAST SHOULD
GENERALLY SUPPORT ADVERTISED MIN TEMPS. OTHER THAN THESE CHANGES
TO THE TEMP/MIN T/SKY GRIDS...SO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED AT THIS
TIME.

AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...

WITH NO MAJOR SYNOPTIC CHANGES WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE RELATIVELY QUIET
WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
SLIDING BY TO OUR NORTH AND GIVING US LIGHT ELY/NELY WINDS...WHILE A
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FEATURING WEAK TROFING ALOFT WILL KEEP SOME SHORT
WAVE ENERGY FLOWING THROUGH THE REGION. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A
FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CU FIELD ACROSS THE REGION BUT AS OF EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON RADAR DOES NOT INDICATE ANY SHOWERS. HOWEVER...BELIEVE THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH OROGRAPHIC FORCING ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO
GENERATE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO. WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE FAR WEST WITH ANY SHOWERS DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET.
OVERNIGHT SHOULD SEE SOME FOG FORMATION AGAIN MAINLY IN THE VALLEYS
WEST OF THE RIDGE. FRIDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO
WHAT WE HAVE TODAY WITH ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON SHOWER
WEST OF THE RIDGE.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WITH LOWS AROUND 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT TO THE LOW/MID 50S WEST OF THE
RIDGE...AND HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S EAST TO GENERALLY MIDDLE 70S WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT THURSDAY...

RIDGING BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN DOMINANT TO START THE
WEEKEND WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY STAYING TO THE SOUTH/WEST
OF THE REGION INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THIS SEEN IN THE LATEST MODELS
INCLUDING FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT SHOW A MUCH DRIER COLUMN ALOFT THAN
SEEN FROM YESTERDAY. THEREFORE KEPT POPS OUT FRIDAY NIGHT AND CUT BACK
TO MORE ISOLATED MOUNTAIN COVERAGE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES WEST.

UPPER TROUGH SLIDING IN FROM THE NW BY SUNDAY WILL CAUSE HEIGHTS TO
LOWER WHILE IN TURN SCOOPING UP A WEAK SHORTWAVE FROM THE SOUTH ALONG
AN AXIS OF HIGHER PWATS. THIS WAVE ALONG WITH SOME UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO
THEN SLIDE NORTH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING A
DECENT AMOUNT OF WEAK LIFT DESPITE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.
AGAIN THINK ENOUGH TO BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS IN FROM THE SOUTH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERHAPS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ESPECIALLY
WESTERN HALF SUNDAY. COULD EVENTUALLY GO TO LOW LIKELY POPS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BUT GIVEN TREND OF MOISTURE/UVV SLIDING FARTHER WEST WILL
HOLD WITH HIGHER CHANCE POPS...EXCEPT MAINLY SLIGHT POPS PIEDMONT.

LITTLE CHANGE TO GOING TEMPS EXCEPT TO GO A BIT COOLER WEST UNDER MORE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS SUNDAY...OTHERWISE CLEAR/PC WITH HIGHS LOW/MID 80S AND
LOWS 58-65.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT THURSDAY...

WEAKNESS ALOFT SPLITTING THROUGH THE UPPER EASTERN RIDGE WILL BE ALONG
THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT PRIOR TO PINCHING OFF ALLOWING A WEAK
UPPER LOW TO SHIFT TO THE SW BEFORE HEIGHTS REBUILD EARLY NEXT WEEK
NORTH OF ERIKA. THIS COMBINED WITH A PIECE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
SLIDING UP FROM THE SOUTH...AND HIGHER PWATS SUPPORTS BETTER CHANCES OF
CONVECTION SUNDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE MOUNTAIN CHAIN. HOWEVER GIVEN WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IN PLACE...WONT
GO MUCH HIGHER THAN MEDIUM CHANCES WEST INTO MONDAY AND KEEP MOSTLY
ISOLATED FAR EAST. PASSING OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD ALLOW RIDGING ALOFT
TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST...AND ENHANCED BY LIKELY
SUBSIDENCE TO THE NORTH OF ERIKA OFF THE FLORIDA/SE COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THUS EXPECTING A GRADUAL DECREASE IN POPS STARTING TUESDAY
WITH PERHAPS ONLY ISOLATED MOUNTAIN COVERAGE AT BEST BY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. HOWEVER PENDING TRACK OF ERIKA COULD SEE ENOUGH MOISTURE
PUSHED INTO THE PIEDMONT WITHIN THE EASTERLY FETCH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST ON DAY7 SO KEPT MAINLY ISOLATED POPS
IN SPOTS. OTHERWISE MORE CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THEN PC TO
MOSTLY SUNNY AND MOSTLY CLEAR AT NIGHT INTO MIDWEEK FOR NOW.

TEMPS BASICALLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS EXCEPT FOR
INCREASING MOISTURE. THUS RUNNING WITH MAINLY LOW 80S WEST TO MID/UPPER
80S EAST...WITH OVERALL LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S...CLOSER TO THE WARMER
EC MOS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE IS PASSING EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING...SHIFTING WINDS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC INCREASINGLY FROM
THE NORTHEAST. CURRENTLY OBSERVING SCT TO BKN CLOUDS FROM THE BLUE
RIDGE WESTWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH BASES IN THE 4KFT TO 6KFT RANGE.
EXPECT CEILINGS TO DROP IN SPOTS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TOWARD
DAWN...RESULTING IN SPOTTY MVFR BASES IN THE 2KFT TO 3KFT RANGE.
WILL ALSO SEE RIVER VALLEY FOG DEVELOP IN SPOTS THAT REMAIN CLOUD-
FREE FOR EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME.

FOG WILL DISSIPATE AND CEILINGS LIFT AFTER 28/14Z AS DAYTIME
HEATING INCREASES. WINDS WILL SHIFT INCREASINGLY EASTERLY THROUGH
LATE MORNING...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY DURING EARLY EVENING...WITH
SPEEDS IN THE 5KT TO 10KT RANGE. WITH WIND DIRECTION BECOMING
UPSLOPE...EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE RIDGES WITH
MAXIMUM AFTERNOON HEATING...HOWEVER LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE IN THE
AREA WILL KEEP COVERAGE LIMITED. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SCT CU ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT...AND SCT TO BKN CU ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AGAIN WITH
BASES IN THE 4KFT TO 6KFT RANGE.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
AS OF 200 AM EDT FRIDAY...

EXPECT A MAINLY VFR FORECAST INTO SUNDAY. MOISTURE GRADUALLY
INCREASES BY THE WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE.
TYPICAL LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING MVFR TO LIFR FOG THREAT AT
LWB/BCB/LYH THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...MBS/RAB
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...DS/NF



000
FXUS61 KRNK 280611
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
211 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AND REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA INTO SATURDAY. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE NORTH ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS...MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE RESULTING IN
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1000 PM EDT THURSDAY...

CLOUD COVER PERSISTS ALONG THE EASTERN...UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE
MOUNTAINS FROM NORTHWEST NC TO SOUTHEAST WV. ALL INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE WITH AN INTENSIFYING MARINE INVERSION
AROUND 700MB SUPPORTED BY EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. WITH NO CHANGE
IN THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION...THIS PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST. THIS
COMBINED WITH SLOWLY INCREASING DEWPOINTS SHOULD HOLD MIN TEMPS UP
A FEW DEGREES TONIGHT IN THE WEST. LESS CLOUDS IN THE EAST SHOULD
GENERALLY SUPPORT ADVERTISED MIN TEMPS. OTHER THAN THESE CHANGES
TO THE TEMP/MIN T/SKY GRIDS...SO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED AT THIS
TIME.

AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...

WITH NO MAJOR SYNOPTIC CHANGES WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE RELATIVELY QUIET
WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
SLIDING BY TO OUR NORTH AND GIVING US LIGHT ELY/NELY WINDS...WHILE A
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FEATURING WEAK TROFING ALOFT WILL KEEP SOME SHORT
WAVE ENERGY FLOWING THROUGH THE REGION. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A
FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CU FIELD ACROSS THE REGION BUT AS OF EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON RADAR DOES NOT INDICATE ANY SHOWERS. HOWEVER...BELIEVE THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH OROGRAPHIC FORCING ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO
GENERATE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO. WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE FAR WEST WITH ANY SHOWERS DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET.
OVERNIGHT SHOULD SEE SOME FOG FORMATION AGAIN MAINLY IN THE VALLEYS
WEST OF THE RIDGE. FRIDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO
WHAT WE HAVE TODAY WITH ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON SHOWER
WEST OF THE RIDGE.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WITH LOWS AROUND 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT TO THE LOW/MID 50S WEST OF THE
RIDGE...AND HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S EAST TO GENERALLY MIDDLE 70S WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT THURSDAY...

RIDGING BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN DOMINANT TO START THE
WEEKEND WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY STAYING TO THE SOUTH/WEST
OF THE REGION INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THIS SEEN IN THE LATEST MODELS
INCLUDING FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT SHOW A MUCH DRIER COLUMN ALOFT THAN
SEEN FROM YESTERDAY. THEREFORE KEPT POPS OUT FRIDAY NIGHT AND CUT BACK
TO MORE ISOLATED MOUNTAIN COVERAGE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES WEST.

UPPER TROUGH SLIDING IN FROM THE NW BY SUNDAY WILL CAUSE HEIGHTS TO
LOWER WHILE IN TURN SCOOPING UP A WEAK SHORTWAVE FROM THE SOUTH ALONG
AN AXIS OF HIGHER PWATS. THIS WAVE ALONG WITH SOME UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO
THEN SLIDE NORTH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING A
DECENT AMOUNT OF WEAK LIFT DESPITE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.
AGAIN THINK ENOUGH TO BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS IN FROM THE SOUTH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERHAPS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ESPECIALLY
WESTERN HALF SUNDAY. COULD EVENTUALLY GO TO LOW LIKELY POPS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BUT GIVEN TREND OF MOISTURE/UVV SLIDING FARTHER WEST WILL
HOLD WITH HIGHER CHANCE POPS...EXCEPT MAINLY SLIGHT POPS PIEDMONT.

LITTLE CHANGE TO GOING TEMPS EXCEPT TO GO A BIT COOLER WEST UNDER MORE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS SUNDAY...OTHERWISE CLEAR/PC WITH HIGHS LOW/MID 80S AND
LOWS 58-65.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT THURSDAY...

WEAKNESS ALOFT SPLITTING THROUGH THE UPPER EASTERN RIDGE WILL BE ALONG
THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT PRIOR TO PINCHING OFF ALLOWING A WEAK
UPPER LOW TO SHIFT TO THE SW BEFORE HEIGHTS REBUILD EARLY NEXT WEEK
NORTH OF ERIKA. THIS COMBINED WITH A PIECE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
SLIDING UP FROM THE SOUTH...AND HIGHER PWATS SUPPORTS BETTER CHANCES OF
CONVECTION SUNDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE MOUNTAIN CHAIN. HOWEVER GIVEN WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IN PLACE...WONT
GO MUCH HIGHER THAN MEDIUM CHANCES WEST INTO MONDAY AND KEEP MOSTLY
ISOLATED FAR EAST. PASSING OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD ALLOW RIDGING ALOFT
TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST...AND ENHANCED BY LIKELY
SUBSIDENCE TO THE NORTH OF ERIKA OFF THE FLORIDA/SE COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THUS EXPECTING A GRADUAL DECREASE IN POPS STARTING TUESDAY
WITH PERHAPS ONLY ISOLATED MOUNTAIN COVERAGE AT BEST BY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. HOWEVER PENDING TRACK OF ERIKA COULD SEE ENOUGH MOISTURE
PUSHED INTO THE PIEDMONT WITHIN THE EASTERLY FETCH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST ON DAY7 SO KEPT MAINLY ISOLATED POPS
IN SPOTS. OTHERWISE MORE CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THEN PC TO
MOSTLY SUNNY AND MOSTLY CLEAR AT NIGHT INTO MIDWEEK FOR NOW.

TEMPS BASICALLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS EXCEPT FOR
INCREASING MOISTURE. THUS RUNNING WITH MAINLY LOW 80S WEST TO MID/UPPER
80S EAST...WITH OVERALL LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S...CLOSER TO THE WARMER
EC MOS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE IS PASSING EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING...SHIFTING WINDS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC INCREASINGLY FROM
THE NORTHEAST. CURRENTLY OBSERVING SCT TO BKN CLOUDS FROM THE BLUE
RIDGE WESTWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH BASES IN THE 4KFT TO 6KFT RANGE.
EXPECT CEILINGS TO DROP IN SPOTS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TOWARD
DAWN...RESULTING IN SPOTTY MVFR BASES IN THE 2KFT TO 3KFT RANGE.
WILL ALSO SEE RIVER VALLEY FOG DEVELOP IN SPOTS THAT REMAIN CLOUD-
FREE FOR EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME.

FOG WILL DISSIPATE AND CEILINGS LIFT AFTER 28/14Z AS DAYTIME
HEATING INCREASES. WINDS WILL SHIFT INCREASINGLY EASTERLY THROUGH
LATE MORNING...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY DURING EARLY EVENING...WITH
SPEEDS IN THE 5KT TO 10KT RANGE. WITH WIND DIRECTION BECOMING
UPSLOPE...EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE RIDGES WITH
MAXIMUM AFTERNOON HEATING...HOWEVER LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE IN THE
AREA WILL KEEP COVERAGE LIMITED. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SCT CU ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT...AND SCT TO BKN CU ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AGAIN WITH
BASES IN THE 4KFT TO 6KFT RANGE.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
AS OF 200 AM EDT FRIDAY...

EXPECT A MAINLY VFR FORECAST INTO SUNDAY. MOISTURE GRADUALLY
INCREASES BY THE WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE.
TYPICAL LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING MVFR TO LIFR FOG THREAT AT
LWB/BCB/LYH THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...MBS/RAB
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...DS/NF



000
FXUS61 KRNK 280611
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
211 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AND REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA INTO SATURDAY. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE NORTH ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS...MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE RESULTING IN
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1000 PM EDT THURSDAY...

CLOUD COVER PERSISTS ALONG THE EASTERN...UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE
MOUNTAINS FROM NORTHWEST NC TO SOUTHEAST WV. ALL INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE WITH AN INTENSIFYING MARINE INVERSION
AROUND 700MB SUPPORTED BY EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. WITH NO CHANGE
IN THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION...THIS PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST. THIS
COMBINED WITH SLOWLY INCREASING DEWPOINTS SHOULD HOLD MIN TEMPS UP
A FEW DEGREES TONIGHT IN THE WEST. LESS CLOUDS IN THE EAST SHOULD
GENERALLY SUPPORT ADVERTISED MIN TEMPS. OTHER THAN THESE CHANGES
TO THE TEMP/MIN T/SKY GRIDS...SO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED AT THIS
TIME.

AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...

WITH NO MAJOR SYNOPTIC CHANGES WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE RELATIVELY QUIET
WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
SLIDING BY TO OUR NORTH AND GIVING US LIGHT ELY/NELY WINDS...WHILE A
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FEATURING WEAK TROFING ALOFT WILL KEEP SOME SHORT
WAVE ENERGY FLOWING THROUGH THE REGION. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A
FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CU FIELD ACROSS THE REGION BUT AS OF EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON RADAR DOES NOT INDICATE ANY SHOWERS. HOWEVER...BELIEVE THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH OROGRAPHIC FORCING ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO
GENERATE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO. WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE FAR WEST WITH ANY SHOWERS DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET.
OVERNIGHT SHOULD SEE SOME FOG FORMATION AGAIN MAINLY IN THE VALLEYS
WEST OF THE RIDGE. FRIDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO
WHAT WE HAVE TODAY WITH ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON SHOWER
WEST OF THE RIDGE.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WITH LOWS AROUND 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT TO THE LOW/MID 50S WEST OF THE
RIDGE...AND HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S EAST TO GENERALLY MIDDLE 70S WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT THURSDAY...

RIDGING BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN DOMINANT TO START THE
WEEKEND WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY STAYING TO THE SOUTH/WEST
OF THE REGION INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THIS SEEN IN THE LATEST MODELS
INCLUDING FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT SHOW A MUCH DRIER COLUMN ALOFT THAN
SEEN FROM YESTERDAY. THEREFORE KEPT POPS OUT FRIDAY NIGHT AND CUT BACK
TO MORE ISOLATED MOUNTAIN COVERAGE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES WEST.

UPPER TROUGH SLIDING IN FROM THE NW BY SUNDAY WILL CAUSE HEIGHTS TO
LOWER WHILE IN TURN SCOOPING UP A WEAK SHORTWAVE FROM THE SOUTH ALONG
AN AXIS OF HIGHER PWATS. THIS WAVE ALONG WITH SOME UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO
THEN SLIDE NORTH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING A
DECENT AMOUNT OF WEAK LIFT DESPITE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.
AGAIN THINK ENOUGH TO BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS IN FROM THE SOUTH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERHAPS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ESPECIALLY
WESTERN HALF SUNDAY. COULD EVENTUALLY GO TO LOW LIKELY POPS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BUT GIVEN TREND OF MOISTURE/UVV SLIDING FARTHER WEST WILL
HOLD WITH HIGHER CHANCE POPS...EXCEPT MAINLY SLIGHT POPS PIEDMONT.

LITTLE CHANGE TO GOING TEMPS EXCEPT TO GO A BIT COOLER WEST UNDER MORE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS SUNDAY...OTHERWISE CLEAR/PC WITH HIGHS LOW/MID 80S AND
LOWS 58-65.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT THURSDAY...

WEAKNESS ALOFT SPLITTING THROUGH THE UPPER EASTERN RIDGE WILL BE ALONG
THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT PRIOR TO PINCHING OFF ALLOWING A WEAK
UPPER LOW TO SHIFT TO THE SW BEFORE HEIGHTS REBUILD EARLY NEXT WEEK
NORTH OF ERIKA. THIS COMBINED WITH A PIECE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
SLIDING UP FROM THE SOUTH...AND HIGHER PWATS SUPPORTS BETTER CHANCES OF
CONVECTION SUNDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE MOUNTAIN CHAIN. HOWEVER GIVEN WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IN PLACE...WONT
GO MUCH HIGHER THAN MEDIUM CHANCES WEST INTO MONDAY AND KEEP MOSTLY
ISOLATED FAR EAST. PASSING OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD ALLOW RIDGING ALOFT
TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST...AND ENHANCED BY LIKELY
SUBSIDENCE TO THE NORTH OF ERIKA OFF THE FLORIDA/SE COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THUS EXPECTING A GRADUAL DECREASE IN POPS STARTING TUESDAY
WITH PERHAPS ONLY ISOLATED MOUNTAIN COVERAGE AT BEST BY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. HOWEVER PENDING TRACK OF ERIKA COULD SEE ENOUGH MOISTURE
PUSHED INTO THE PIEDMONT WITHIN THE EASTERLY FETCH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST ON DAY7 SO KEPT MAINLY ISOLATED POPS
IN SPOTS. OTHERWISE MORE CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THEN PC TO
MOSTLY SUNNY AND MOSTLY CLEAR AT NIGHT INTO MIDWEEK FOR NOW.

TEMPS BASICALLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS EXCEPT FOR
INCREASING MOISTURE. THUS RUNNING WITH MAINLY LOW 80S WEST TO MID/UPPER
80S EAST...WITH OVERALL LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S...CLOSER TO THE WARMER
EC MOS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE IS PASSING EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING...SHIFTING WINDS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC INCREASINGLY FROM
THE NORTHEAST. CURRENTLY OBSERVING SCT TO BKN CLOUDS FROM THE BLUE
RIDGE WESTWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH BASES IN THE 4KFT TO 6KFT RANGE.
EXPECT CEILINGS TO DROP IN SPOTS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TOWARD
DAWN...RESULTING IN SPOTTY MVFR BASES IN THE 2KFT TO 3KFT RANGE.
WILL ALSO SEE RIVER VALLEY FOG DEVELOP IN SPOTS THAT REMAIN CLOUD-
FREE FOR EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME.

FOG WILL DISSIPATE AND CEILINGS LIFT AFTER 28/14Z AS DAYTIME
HEATING INCREASES. WINDS WILL SHIFT INCREASINGLY EASTERLY THROUGH
LATE MORNING...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY DURING EARLY EVENING...WITH
SPEEDS IN THE 5KT TO 10KT RANGE. WITH WIND DIRECTION BECOMING
UPSLOPE...EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE RIDGES WITH
MAXIMUM AFTERNOON HEATING...HOWEVER LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE IN THE
AREA WILL KEEP COVERAGE LIMITED. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SCT CU ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT...AND SCT TO BKN CU ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AGAIN WITH
BASES IN THE 4KFT TO 6KFT RANGE.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
AS OF 200 AM EDT FRIDAY...

EXPECT A MAINLY VFR FORECAST INTO SUNDAY. MOISTURE GRADUALLY
INCREASES BY THE WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE.
TYPICAL LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING MVFR TO LIFR FOG THREAT AT
LWB/BCB/LYH THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...MBS/RAB
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...DS/NF



000
FXUS61 KRNK 280611
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
211 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AND REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA INTO SATURDAY. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE NORTH ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS...MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE RESULTING IN
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1000 PM EDT THURSDAY...

CLOUD COVER PERSISTS ALONG THE EASTERN...UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE
MOUNTAINS FROM NORTHWEST NC TO SOUTHEAST WV. ALL INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE WITH AN INTENSIFYING MARINE INVERSION
AROUND 700MB SUPPORTED BY EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. WITH NO CHANGE
IN THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION...THIS PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST. THIS
COMBINED WITH SLOWLY INCREASING DEWPOINTS SHOULD HOLD MIN TEMPS UP
A FEW DEGREES TONIGHT IN THE WEST. LESS CLOUDS IN THE EAST SHOULD
GENERALLY SUPPORT ADVERTISED MIN TEMPS. OTHER THAN THESE CHANGES
TO THE TEMP/MIN T/SKY GRIDS...SO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED AT THIS
TIME.

AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...

WITH NO MAJOR SYNOPTIC CHANGES WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE RELATIVELY QUIET
WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
SLIDING BY TO OUR NORTH AND GIVING US LIGHT ELY/NELY WINDS...WHILE A
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FEATURING WEAK TROFING ALOFT WILL KEEP SOME SHORT
WAVE ENERGY FLOWING THROUGH THE REGION. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A
FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CU FIELD ACROSS THE REGION BUT AS OF EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON RADAR DOES NOT INDICATE ANY SHOWERS. HOWEVER...BELIEVE THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH OROGRAPHIC FORCING ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO
GENERATE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO. WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE FAR WEST WITH ANY SHOWERS DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET.
OVERNIGHT SHOULD SEE SOME FOG FORMATION AGAIN MAINLY IN THE VALLEYS
WEST OF THE RIDGE. FRIDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO
WHAT WE HAVE TODAY WITH ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON SHOWER
WEST OF THE RIDGE.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WITH LOWS AROUND 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT TO THE LOW/MID 50S WEST OF THE
RIDGE...AND HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S EAST TO GENERALLY MIDDLE 70S WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT THURSDAY...

RIDGING BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN DOMINANT TO START THE
WEEKEND WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY STAYING TO THE SOUTH/WEST
OF THE REGION INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THIS SEEN IN THE LATEST MODELS
INCLUDING FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT SHOW A MUCH DRIER COLUMN ALOFT THAN
SEEN FROM YESTERDAY. THEREFORE KEPT POPS OUT FRIDAY NIGHT AND CUT BACK
TO MORE ISOLATED MOUNTAIN COVERAGE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES WEST.

UPPER TROUGH SLIDING IN FROM THE NW BY SUNDAY WILL CAUSE HEIGHTS TO
LOWER WHILE IN TURN SCOOPING UP A WEAK SHORTWAVE FROM THE SOUTH ALONG
AN AXIS OF HIGHER PWATS. THIS WAVE ALONG WITH SOME UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO
THEN SLIDE NORTH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING A
DECENT AMOUNT OF WEAK LIFT DESPITE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.
AGAIN THINK ENOUGH TO BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS IN FROM THE SOUTH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERHAPS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ESPECIALLY
WESTERN HALF SUNDAY. COULD EVENTUALLY GO TO LOW LIKELY POPS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BUT GIVEN TREND OF MOISTURE/UVV SLIDING FARTHER WEST WILL
HOLD WITH HIGHER CHANCE POPS...EXCEPT MAINLY SLIGHT POPS PIEDMONT.

LITTLE CHANGE TO GOING TEMPS EXCEPT TO GO A BIT COOLER WEST UNDER MORE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS SUNDAY...OTHERWISE CLEAR/PC WITH HIGHS LOW/MID 80S AND
LOWS 58-65.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT THURSDAY...

WEAKNESS ALOFT SPLITTING THROUGH THE UPPER EASTERN RIDGE WILL BE ALONG
THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT PRIOR TO PINCHING OFF ALLOWING A WEAK
UPPER LOW TO SHIFT TO THE SW BEFORE HEIGHTS REBUILD EARLY NEXT WEEK
NORTH OF ERIKA. THIS COMBINED WITH A PIECE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
SLIDING UP FROM THE SOUTH...AND HIGHER PWATS SUPPORTS BETTER CHANCES OF
CONVECTION SUNDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE MOUNTAIN CHAIN. HOWEVER GIVEN WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IN PLACE...WONT
GO MUCH HIGHER THAN MEDIUM CHANCES WEST INTO MONDAY AND KEEP MOSTLY
ISOLATED FAR EAST. PASSING OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD ALLOW RIDGING ALOFT
TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST...AND ENHANCED BY LIKELY
SUBSIDENCE TO THE NORTH OF ERIKA OFF THE FLORIDA/SE COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THUS EXPECTING A GRADUAL DECREASE IN POPS STARTING TUESDAY
WITH PERHAPS ONLY ISOLATED MOUNTAIN COVERAGE AT BEST BY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. HOWEVER PENDING TRACK OF ERIKA COULD SEE ENOUGH MOISTURE
PUSHED INTO THE PIEDMONT WITHIN THE EASTERLY FETCH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST ON DAY7 SO KEPT MAINLY ISOLATED POPS
IN SPOTS. OTHERWISE MORE CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THEN PC TO
MOSTLY SUNNY AND MOSTLY CLEAR AT NIGHT INTO MIDWEEK FOR NOW.

TEMPS BASICALLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS EXCEPT FOR
INCREASING MOISTURE. THUS RUNNING WITH MAINLY LOW 80S WEST TO MID/UPPER
80S EAST...WITH OVERALL LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S...CLOSER TO THE WARMER
EC MOS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE IS PASSING EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING...SHIFTING WINDS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC INCREASINGLY FROM
THE NORTHEAST. CURRENTLY OBSERVING SCT TO BKN CLOUDS FROM THE BLUE
RIDGE WESTWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH BASES IN THE 4KFT TO 6KFT RANGE.
EXPECT CEILINGS TO DROP IN SPOTS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TOWARD
DAWN...RESULTING IN SPOTTY MVFR BASES IN THE 2KFT TO 3KFT RANGE.
WILL ALSO SEE RIVER VALLEY FOG DEVELOP IN SPOTS THAT REMAIN CLOUD-
FREE FOR EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME.

FOG WILL DISSIPATE AND CEILINGS LIFT AFTER 28/14Z AS DAYTIME
HEATING INCREASES. WINDS WILL SHIFT INCREASINGLY EASTERLY THROUGH
LATE MORNING...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY DURING EARLY EVENING...WITH
SPEEDS IN THE 5KT TO 10KT RANGE. WITH WIND DIRECTION BECOMING
UPSLOPE...EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE RIDGES WITH
MAXIMUM AFTERNOON HEATING...HOWEVER LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE IN THE
AREA WILL KEEP COVERAGE LIMITED. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SCT CU ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT...AND SCT TO BKN CU ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AGAIN WITH
BASES IN THE 4KFT TO 6KFT RANGE.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
AS OF 200 AM EDT FRIDAY...

EXPECT A MAINLY VFR FORECAST INTO SUNDAY. MOISTURE GRADUALLY
INCREASES BY THE WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE.
TYPICAL LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING MVFR TO LIFR FOG THREAT AT
LWB/BCB/LYH THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...MBS/RAB
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...DS/NF



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280552
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
152 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
ISOLD SHWRS ARE STILL LINGERING OFFSHORE AND ALSO ALONG THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND LATE THIS EVENING. HAVE MAINTAINED MINIMAL POPS
(20%) FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE PCPN EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE.
OTW...SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NW
OVERNIGHT. MSTLY CLEAR TO PTLY CLOUDY N AND W TO MSTLY CLOUDY
ACROSS THE SE. LOWS FROM NEAR 60 NW TO NR 70 IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF FRI WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERING OVER
THE MID ATLC REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WX WITH A MSTLY SUNNY
SKY AND LO HUMIDITY. TEMPS WILL BE NR NORMAL FOR LATE AUG...WITH
HIGHS AVGG IN THE MID 80S. THE HI SLIDES OFFSHORE FRI NGT INTO SAT
WITH UPR-LEVEL ENERGY STAYING N OF THE FA AND DRY WX CONTINUING.
AFTER ERLY MORNG LOWS RANGING THRU THE 60S...TEMPS WILL MAX OUT IN
THE MID/UPR 80S SAT AFTN. SLGT WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO SUN
WITH HIGHS NR 90 IN MANY SPOTS AS SLY FLOW DEVELOPS. INCLUDED A
SLGT CHC OF A SHRA/TSTM SUN AS SOME MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ALOFT APPROACH FM THE SW. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO WIDESPREAD
ATTM HENCE THE LO POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY BROAD
MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A WEAK TROUGH
IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE SERN US.
WHETHER THIS IS IN THE FORM OF A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE OR SOME
FORM OF TS ERIKA IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. NONETHELESS...THE
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP DEEP MOISTURE SUPPRESSED S OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION. GIVEN THIS...ONLY DIURNAL POPS ARE
FORECAST...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SRN VA/NE NC AND IN THE 20-30%
RANGE. WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID NEXT WEEK WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S...WITH MID 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES BUILDING INTO THE REGION TODAY...WITH VFR
CONDS. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09Z-12Z THIS MORNING OVER
INTERIOR VA/MD BUT WILL GENLY NOT AFFECT TAF SITES.
OTHERWISE...BKN/OVC CIGS 5-10 K FT OVER FAR SE VA/NE NC WILL GRADUALLY
ERODE LATER THIS MORNING. LIGHT N/NE WINDS...WILL GRADUALLY TURN
OUT OF THE E/NE AND WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS EXCEPT AT KORF/KECG
WHERE A FEW GUSTS TO 15 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTN.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL NEAR/JUST N/E OF THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE WKND...WITH GENLY DRY/VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING AND WINDS TO AVG 10 KT OR LESS. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY
EARLY AM FOG EACH DAY SAT-MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELED...AS SEAS HAVE FALLEN TO
AROUND 4 FT...AND NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY EARLY
THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES COMBINED WITH
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS HELPING TO DRIVE A 15
KT NE WIND OFF THE COAST OF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS. SEAS ARE
ELEVATED TO AROUND 4 FEET IN THE NE NC COASTAL WATERS...AND SHOULD
REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY. ELSEWHERE WIND SPEEDS ARE
GENERALLY AROUND 10-15 KT OUT OF THE N-NE WITH SEAS 2-3 FT AND BAY
WAVES 1-2 FT. AFTER A BRIEF INCREASE IN WINDS AROUND DAYBREAK...THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT LATER THIS AFTN THROUGH TONIGHT
WHILE VEERING SLIGHTLY TO THE E/NE.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WIND WILL
GENERALLY FLUCTUATE FROM NE-SE TROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND THEN TREND
SOUTHERLY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING AOB 10-15KT.
SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 2-3 FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH 1-2 FT WAVES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LKB/WRS
MARINE...AJZ/LKB




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280552
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
152 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
ISOLD SHWRS ARE STILL LINGERING OFFSHORE AND ALSO ALONG THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND LATE THIS EVENING. HAVE MAINTAINED MINIMAL POPS
(20%) FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE PCPN EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE.
OTW...SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NW
OVERNIGHT. MSTLY CLEAR TO PTLY CLOUDY N AND W TO MSTLY CLOUDY
ACROSS THE SE. LOWS FROM NEAR 60 NW TO NR 70 IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF FRI WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERING OVER
THE MID ATLC REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WX WITH A MSTLY SUNNY
SKY AND LO HUMIDITY. TEMPS WILL BE NR NORMAL FOR LATE AUG...WITH
HIGHS AVGG IN THE MID 80S. THE HI SLIDES OFFSHORE FRI NGT INTO SAT
WITH UPR-LEVEL ENERGY STAYING N OF THE FA AND DRY WX CONTINUING.
AFTER ERLY MORNG LOWS RANGING THRU THE 60S...TEMPS WILL MAX OUT IN
THE MID/UPR 80S SAT AFTN. SLGT WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO SUN
WITH HIGHS NR 90 IN MANY SPOTS AS SLY FLOW DEVELOPS. INCLUDED A
SLGT CHC OF A SHRA/TSTM SUN AS SOME MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ALOFT APPROACH FM THE SW. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO WIDESPREAD
ATTM HENCE THE LO POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY BROAD
MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A WEAK TROUGH
IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE SERN US.
WHETHER THIS IS IN THE FORM OF A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE OR SOME
FORM OF TS ERIKA IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. NONETHELESS...THE
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP DEEP MOISTURE SUPPRESSED S OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION. GIVEN THIS...ONLY DIURNAL POPS ARE
FORECAST...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SRN VA/NE NC AND IN THE 20-30%
RANGE. WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID NEXT WEEK WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S...WITH MID 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES BUILDING INTO THE REGION TODAY...WITH VFR
CONDS. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09Z-12Z THIS MORNING OVER
INTERIOR VA/MD BUT WILL GENLY NOT AFFECT TAF SITES.
OTHERWISE...BKN/OVC CIGS 5-10 K FT OVER FAR SE VA/NE NC WILL GRADUALLY
ERODE LATER THIS MORNING. LIGHT N/NE WINDS...WILL GRADUALLY TURN
OUT OF THE E/NE AND WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS EXCEPT AT KORF/KECG
WHERE A FEW GUSTS TO 15 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTN.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL NEAR/JUST N/E OF THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE WKND...WITH GENLY DRY/VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING AND WINDS TO AVG 10 KT OR LESS. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY
EARLY AM FOG EACH DAY SAT-MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELED...AS SEAS HAVE FALLEN TO
AROUND 4 FT...AND NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY EARLY
THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES COMBINED WITH
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS HELPING TO DRIVE A 15
KT NE WIND OFF THE COAST OF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS. SEAS ARE
ELEVATED TO AROUND 4 FEET IN THE NE NC COASTAL WATERS...AND SHOULD
REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY. ELSEWHERE WIND SPEEDS ARE
GENERALLY AROUND 10-15 KT OUT OF THE N-NE WITH SEAS 2-3 FT AND BAY
WAVES 1-2 FT. AFTER A BRIEF INCREASE IN WINDS AROUND DAYBREAK...THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT LATER THIS AFTN THROUGH TONIGHT
WHILE VEERING SLIGHTLY TO THE E/NE.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WIND WILL
GENERALLY FLUCTUATE FROM NE-SE TROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND THEN TREND
SOUTHERLY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING AOB 10-15KT.
SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 2-3 FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH 1-2 FT WAVES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LKB/WRS
MARINE...AJZ/LKB



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280552
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
152 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
ISOLD SHWRS ARE STILL LINGERING OFFSHORE AND ALSO ALONG THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND LATE THIS EVENING. HAVE MAINTAINED MINIMAL POPS
(20%) FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE PCPN EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE.
OTW...SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NW
OVERNIGHT. MSTLY CLEAR TO PTLY CLOUDY N AND W TO MSTLY CLOUDY
ACROSS THE SE. LOWS FROM NEAR 60 NW TO NR 70 IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF FRI WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERING OVER
THE MID ATLC REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WX WITH A MSTLY SUNNY
SKY AND LO HUMIDITY. TEMPS WILL BE NR NORMAL FOR LATE AUG...WITH
HIGHS AVGG IN THE MID 80S. THE HI SLIDES OFFSHORE FRI NGT INTO SAT
WITH UPR-LEVEL ENERGY STAYING N OF THE FA AND DRY WX CONTINUING.
AFTER ERLY MORNG LOWS RANGING THRU THE 60S...TEMPS WILL MAX OUT IN
THE MID/UPR 80S SAT AFTN. SLGT WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO SUN
WITH HIGHS NR 90 IN MANY SPOTS AS SLY FLOW DEVELOPS. INCLUDED A
SLGT CHC OF A SHRA/TSTM SUN AS SOME MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ALOFT APPROACH FM THE SW. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO WIDESPREAD
ATTM HENCE THE LO POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY BROAD
MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A WEAK TROUGH
IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE SERN US.
WHETHER THIS IS IN THE FORM OF A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE OR SOME
FORM OF TS ERIKA IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. NONETHELESS...THE
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP DEEP MOISTURE SUPPRESSED S OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION. GIVEN THIS...ONLY DIURNAL POPS ARE
FORECAST...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SRN VA/NE NC AND IN THE 20-30%
RANGE. WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID NEXT WEEK WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S...WITH MID 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES BUILDING INTO THE REGION TODAY...WITH VFR
CONDS. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09Z-12Z THIS MORNING OVER
INTERIOR VA/MD BUT WILL GENLY NOT AFFECT TAF SITES.
OTHERWISE...BKN/OVC CIGS 5-10 K FT OVER FAR SE VA/NE NC WILL GRADUALLY
ERODE LATER THIS MORNING. LIGHT N/NE WINDS...WILL GRADUALLY TURN
OUT OF THE E/NE AND WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS EXCEPT AT KORF/KECG
WHERE A FEW GUSTS TO 15 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTN.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL NEAR/JUST N/E OF THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE WKND...WITH GENLY DRY/VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING AND WINDS TO AVG 10 KT OR LESS. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY
EARLY AM FOG EACH DAY SAT-MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELED...AS SEAS HAVE FALLEN TO
AROUND 4 FT...AND NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY EARLY
THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES COMBINED WITH
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS HELPING TO DRIVE A 15
KT NE WIND OFF THE COAST OF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS. SEAS ARE
ELEVATED TO AROUND 4 FEET IN THE NE NC COASTAL WATERS...AND SHOULD
REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY. ELSEWHERE WIND SPEEDS ARE
GENERALLY AROUND 10-15 KT OUT OF THE N-NE WITH SEAS 2-3 FT AND BAY
WAVES 1-2 FT. AFTER A BRIEF INCREASE IN WINDS AROUND DAYBREAK...THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT LATER THIS AFTN THROUGH TONIGHT
WHILE VEERING SLIGHTLY TO THE E/NE.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WIND WILL
GENERALLY FLUCTUATE FROM NE-SE TROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND THEN TREND
SOUTHERLY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING AOB 10-15KT.
SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 2-3 FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH 1-2 FT WAVES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LKB/WRS
MARINE...AJZ/LKB



000
FXUS61 KRNK 280219
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1019 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AND REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA INTO SATURDAY. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE NORTH ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS...MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE RESULTING IN
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1000 PM EDT THURSDAY...

CLOUD COVER PERSISTS ALONG THE EASTERN...UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE
MOUNTAINS FROM NORTHWEST NC TO SOUTHEAST WV. ALL INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE WITH AN INTENSIFYING MARINE INVERSION
AROUND 700MB SUPPORTED BY EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. WITH NO CHANGE
IN THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION...THIS PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST. THIS
COMBINED WITH SLOWLY INCREASING DEWPOINTS SHOULD HOLD MIN TEMPS UP
A FEW DEGREES TONIGHT IN THE WEST. LESS CLOUDS IN THE EAST SHOULD
GENERALLY SUPPORT ADVERTISED MIN TEMPS. OTHER THAN THESE CHANGES
TO THE TEMP/MIN T/SKY GRIDS...SO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED AT THIS
TIME.

AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...

WITH NO MAJOR SYNOPTIC CHANGES WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE RELATIVELY QUIET
WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
SLIDING BY TO OUR NORTH AND GIVING US LIGHT ELY/NELY WINDS...WHILE A
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FEATURING WEAK TROFING ALOFT WILL KEEP SOME SHORT
WAVE ENERGY FLOWING THROUGH THE REGION. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A
FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CU FIELD ACROSS THE REGION BUT AS OF EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON RADAR DOES NOT INDICATE ANY SHOWERS. HOWEVER...BELIEVE THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH OROGRAPHIC FORCING ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO
GENERATE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO. WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE FAR WEST WITH ANY SHOWERS DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET.
OVERNIGHT SHOULD SEE SOME FOG FORMATION AGAIN MAINLY IN THE VALLEYS
WEST OF THE RIDGE. FRIDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO
WHAT WE HAVE TODAY WITH ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON SHOWER
WEST OF THE RIDGE.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WITH LOWS AROUND 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT TO THE LOW/MID 50S WEST OF THE
RIDGE...AND HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S EAST TO GENERALLY MIDDLE 70S WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT THURSDAY...

RIDGING BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN DOMINANT TO START THE
WEEKEND WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY STAYING TO THE SOUTH/WEST
OF THE REGION INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THIS SEEN IN THE LATEST MODELS
INCLUDING FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT SHOW A MUCH DRIER COLUMN ALOFT THAN
SEEN FROM YESTERDAY. THEREFORE KEPT POPS OUT FRIDAY NIGHT AND CUT BACK
TO MORE ISOLATED MOUNTAIN COVERAGE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES WEST.

UPPER TROUGH SLIDING IN FROM THE NW BY SUNDAY WILL CAUSE HEIGHTS TO
LOWER WHILE IN TURN SCOOPING UP A WEAK SHORTWAVE FROM THE SOUTH ALONG
AN AXIS OF HIGHER PWATS. THIS WAVE ALONG WITH SOME UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO
THEN SLIDE NORTH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING A
DECENT AMOUNT OF WEAK LIFT DESPITE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.
AGAIN THINK ENOUGH TO BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS IN FROM THE SOUTH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERHAPS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ESPECIALLY
WESTERN HALF SUNDAY. COULD EVENTUALLY GO TO LOW LIKELY POPS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BUT GIVEN TREND OF MOISTURE/UVV SLIDING FARTHER WEST WILL
HOLD WITH HIGHER CHANCE POPS...EXCEPT MAINLY SLIGHT POPS PIEDMONT.

LITTLE CHANGE TO GOING TEMPS EXCEPT TO GO A BIT COOLER WEST UNDER MORE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS SUNDAY...OTHERWISE CLEAR/PC WITH HIGHS LOW/MID 80S AND
LOWS 58-65.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT THURSDAY...

WEAKNESS ALOFT SPLITTING THROUGH THE UPPER EASTERN RIDGE WILL BE ALONG
THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT PRIOR TO PINCHING OFF ALLOWING A WEAK
UPPER LOW TO SHIFT TO THE SW BEFORE HEIGHTS REBUILD EARLY NEXT WEEK
NORTH OF ERIKA. THIS COMBINED WITH A PIECE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
SLIDING UP FROM THE SOUTH...AND HIGHER PWATS SUPPORTS BETTER CHANCES OF
CONVECTION SUNDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE MOUNTAIN CHAIN. HOWEVER GIVEN WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IN PLACE...WONT
GO MUCH HIGHER THAN MEDIUM CHANCES WEST INTO MONDAY AND KEEP MOSTLY
ISOLATED FAR EAST. PASSING OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD ALLOW RIDGING ALOFT
TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST...AND ENHANCED BY LIKELY
SUBSIDENCE TO THE NORTH OF ERIKA OFF THE FLORIDA/SE COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THUS EXPECTING A GRADUAL DECREASE IN POPS STARTING TUESDAY
WITH PERHAPS ONLY ISOLATED MOUNTAIN COVERAGE AT BEST BY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. HOWEVER PENDING TRACK OF ERIKA COULD SEE ENOUGH MOISTURE
PUSHED INTO THE PIEDMONT WITHIN THE EASTERLY FETCH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST ON DAY7 SO KEPT MAINLY ISOLATED POPS
IN SPOTS. OTHERWISE MORE CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THEN PC TO
MOSTLY SUNNY AND MOSTLY CLEAR AT NIGHT INTO MIDWEEK FOR NOW.

TEMPS BASICALLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS EXCEPT FOR
INCREASING MOISTURE. THUS RUNNING WITH MAINLY LOW 80S WEST TO MID/UPPER
80S EAST...WITH OVERALL LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S...CLOSER TO THE WARMER
EC MOS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT THURSDAY...

THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN VISUAL FLIGHT RULES.
THERE WILL BE PATCHY MARGINAL VISUAL FLIGHT RULES MIST IN THE
RIVER AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. ALSO...PATCHY AREAS OF MARGINAL VISUAL
FLIGHT RULE CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...MAINLY ALONG AND A
COUPLE TIERS OF COUNTIES WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. ANY SUB-VISUAL
FLIGHT RULE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VISUAL FLIGHT
RULES BY 14Z/10AM FRIDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN CALM OR LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ALSO THROUGH THIS TIME FRIDAY MORNING. BY THE LATE
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON A SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH 5 TO 10 KNOT
WIND IS EXPECTED.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT THURSDAY...

EXPECT A MAINLY VFR FORECAST INTO SUNDAY. MOISTURE GRADUALLY
INCREASES BY THE WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE.
TYPICAL LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING MVFR TO LIFR FOG THREAT AT
LWB/BCB/LYH THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...MBS/RAB
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...AMS/DS/MBS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 280219
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1019 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AND REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA INTO SATURDAY. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE NORTH ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS...MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE RESULTING IN
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1000 PM EDT THURSDAY...

CLOUD COVER PERSISTS ALONG THE EASTERN...UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE
MOUNTAINS FROM NORTHWEST NC TO SOUTHEAST WV. ALL INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE WITH AN INTENSIFYING MARINE INVERSION
AROUND 700MB SUPPORTED BY EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. WITH NO CHANGE
IN THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION...THIS PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST. THIS
COMBINED WITH SLOWLY INCREASING DEWPOINTS SHOULD HOLD MIN TEMPS UP
A FEW DEGREES TONIGHT IN THE WEST. LESS CLOUDS IN THE EAST SHOULD
GENERALLY SUPPORT ADVERTISED MIN TEMPS. OTHER THAN THESE CHANGES
TO THE TEMP/MIN T/SKY GRIDS...SO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED AT THIS
TIME.

AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...

WITH NO MAJOR SYNOPTIC CHANGES WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE RELATIVELY QUIET
WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
SLIDING BY TO OUR NORTH AND GIVING US LIGHT ELY/NELY WINDS...WHILE A
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FEATURING WEAK TROFING ALOFT WILL KEEP SOME SHORT
WAVE ENERGY FLOWING THROUGH THE REGION. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A
FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CU FIELD ACROSS THE REGION BUT AS OF EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON RADAR DOES NOT INDICATE ANY SHOWERS. HOWEVER...BELIEVE THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH OROGRAPHIC FORCING ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO
GENERATE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO. WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE FAR WEST WITH ANY SHOWERS DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET.
OVERNIGHT SHOULD SEE SOME FOG FORMATION AGAIN MAINLY IN THE VALLEYS
WEST OF THE RIDGE. FRIDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO
WHAT WE HAVE TODAY WITH ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON SHOWER
WEST OF THE RIDGE.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WITH LOWS AROUND 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT TO THE LOW/MID 50S WEST OF THE
RIDGE...AND HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S EAST TO GENERALLY MIDDLE 70S WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT THURSDAY...

RIDGING BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN DOMINANT TO START THE
WEEKEND WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY STAYING TO THE SOUTH/WEST
OF THE REGION INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THIS SEEN IN THE LATEST MODELS
INCLUDING FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT SHOW A MUCH DRIER COLUMN ALOFT THAN
SEEN FROM YESTERDAY. THEREFORE KEPT POPS OUT FRIDAY NIGHT AND CUT BACK
TO MORE ISOLATED MOUNTAIN COVERAGE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES WEST.

UPPER TROUGH SLIDING IN FROM THE NW BY SUNDAY WILL CAUSE HEIGHTS TO
LOWER WHILE IN TURN SCOOPING UP A WEAK SHORTWAVE FROM THE SOUTH ALONG
AN AXIS OF HIGHER PWATS. THIS WAVE ALONG WITH SOME UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO
THEN SLIDE NORTH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING A
DECENT AMOUNT OF WEAK LIFT DESPITE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.
AGAIN THINK ENOUGH TO BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS IN FROM THE SOUTH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERHAPS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ESPECIALLY
WESTERN HALF SUNDAY. COULD EVENTUALLY GO TO LOW LIKELY POPS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BUT GIVEN TREND OF MOISTURE/UVV SLIDING FARTHER WEST WILL
HOLD WITH HIGHER CHANCE POPS...EXCEPT MAINLY SLIGHT POPS PIEDMONT.

LITTLE CHANGE TO GOING TEMPS EXCEPT TO GO A BIT COOLER WEST UNDER MORE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS SUNDAY...OTHERWISE CLEAR/PC WITH HIGHS LOW/MID 80S AND
LOWS 58-65.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT THURSDAY...

WEAKNESS ALOFT SPLITTING THROUGH THE UPPER EASTERN RIDGE WILL BE ALONG
THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT PRIOR TO PINCHING OFF ALLOWING A WEAK
UPPER LOW TO SHIFT TO THE SW BEFORE HEIGHTS REBUILD EARLY NEXT WEEK
NORTH OF ERIKA. THIS COMBINED WITH A PIECE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
SLIDING UP FROM THE SOUTH...AND HIGHER PWATS SUPPORTS BETTER CHANCES OF
CONVECTION SUNDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE MOUNTAIN CHAIN. HOWEVER GIVEN WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IN PLACE...WONT
GO MUCH HIGHER THAN MEDIUM CHANCES WEST INTO MONDAY AND KEEP MOSTLY
ISOLATED FAR EAST. PASSING OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD ALLOW RIDGING ALOFT
TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST...AND ENHANCED BY LIKELY
SUBSIDENCE TO THE NORTH OF ERIKA OFF THE FLORIDA/SE COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THUS EXPECTING A GRADUAL DECREASE IN POPS STARTING TUESDAY
WITH PERHAPS ONLY ISOLATED MOUNTAIN COVERAGE AT BEST BY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. HOWEVER PENDING TRACK OF ERIKA COULD SEE ENOUGH MOISTURE
PUSHED INTO THE PIEDMONT WITHIN THE EASTERLY FETCH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST ON DAY7 SO KEPT MAINLY ISOLATED POPS
IN SPOTS. OTHERWISE MORE CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THEN PC TO
MOSTLY SUNNY AND MOSTLY CLEAR AT NIGHT INTO MIDWEEK FOR NOW.

TEMPS BASICALLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS EXCEPT FOR
INCREASING MOISTURE. THUS RUNNING WITH MAINLY LOW 80S WEST TO MID/UPPER
80S EAST...WITH OVERALL LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S...CLOSER TO THE WARMER
EC MOS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT THURSDAY...

THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN VISUAL FLIGHT RULES.
THERE WILL BE PATCHY MARGINAL VISUAL FLIGHT RULES MIST IN THE
RIVER AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. ALSO...PATCHY AREAS OF MARGINAL VISUAL
FLIGHT RULE CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...MAINLY ALONG AND A
COUPLE TIERS OF COUNTIES WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. ANY SUB-VISUAL
FLIGHT RULE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VISUAL FLIGHT
RULES BY 14Z/10AM FRIDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN CALM OR LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ALSO THROUGH THIS TIME FRIDAY MORNING. BY THE LATE
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON A SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH 5 TO 10 KNOT
WIND IS EXPECTED.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT THURSDAY...

EXPECT A MAINLY VFR FORECAST INTO SUNDAY. MOISTURE GRADUALLY
INCREASES BY THE WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE.
TYPICAL LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING MVFR TO LIFR FOG THREAT AT
LWB/BCB/LYH THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...MBS/RAB
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...AMS/DS/MBS



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280204
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1004 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
ISOLD SHWRS ARE STILL LINGERING OFFSHORE AND ALSO ALONG THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND LATE THIS EVENING. HAVE MAINTAINED MINIMAL POPS
(20%) FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE PCPN EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE.
OTW...SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NW
OVERNIGHT. MSTLY CLEAR TO PTLY CLOUDY N AND W TO MSTLY CLOUDY
ACROSS THE SE. LOWS FROM NEAR 60 NW TO NR 70 IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF FRI WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERING OVER
THE MID ATLC REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WX WITH A MSTLY SUNNY
SKY AND LO HUMIDITY. TEMPS WILL BE NR NORMAL FOR LATE AUG...WITH
HIGHS AVGG IN THE MID 80S. THE HI SLIDES OFFSHORE FRI NGT INTO SAT
WITH UPR-LEVEL ENERGY STAYING N OF THE FA AND DRY WX CONTINUING.
AFTER ERLY MORNG LOWS RANGING THRU THE 60S...TEMPS WILL MAX OUT IN
THE MID/UPR 80S SAT AFTN. SLGT WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO SUN
WITH HIGHS NR 90 IN MANY SPOTS AS SLY FLOW DEVELOPS. INCLUDED A
SLGT CHC OF A SHRA/TSTM SUN AS SOME MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ALOFT APPROACH FM THE SW. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO WIDESPREAD
ATTM HENCE THE LO POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY BROAD
MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A WEAK TROUGH
IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE SERN US.
WHETHER THIS IS IN THE FORM OF A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE OR SOME
FORM OF TS ERIKA IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. NONETHELESS...THE
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP DEEP MOISTURE SUPPRESSED S OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION. GIVEN THIS...ONLY DIURNAL POPS ARE
FORECAST...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SRN VA/NE NC AND IN THE 20-30%
RANGE. WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID NEXT WEEK WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S...WITH MID 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NW...WITH VFR CONDS XPCD THROUGH FRIDAY. MID CLDS ARE CURRENTLY
RESTRICTED TO NE NC...AND THOSE ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ERODE
OVERNIGHT. LIGHT N/NE WINDS OVERNIGHT...WILL GRADUALLY TURN OUT OF
THE SE ON FRIDAY AT KRIC/SBY BUT REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL NEAR/JUST N/E OF THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE WKND...WITH GENLY DRY/VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING (COULD SEE SOME PATCHY EARLY AM FOG SAT/SUN).

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELED...AS SEAS HAVE FALLEN TO
AROUND 4 FT...AND NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES COMBINED WITH WEAK
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS HELPING TO DRIVE A 15 KT
NE WIND OFF THE COAST OF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS. SEAS ARE
ELEVATED TO AROUND 4 FEET IN THE NE NC COASTAL WATERS...AND SHOULD
REMAIN THAT WAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. ELSEWHERE WIND SPEEDS ARE
GENERALLY AROUND 10 KT OUT OF THE N-NE. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING...BUT THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
TIGHTEN SOME TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY NUDGES EWD AND LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE
3-4FT N OF THE VA/NC BORDER TONIGHT...WITH 1 TO 2 FT WAVES IN THE
BAY...RIVERS AND SOUND. COULD BE AN ISOLATED 3 FOOT WAVE NEAR THE
MOUTH OF THE BAY THROUH 06Z...BUT SHOULD MAINLY BE 1-2 FT.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED NEAR OR SLIGHTLY OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WIND WILL
GENERALLY FLUCTUATE FROM NE-SE TROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND THEN TREND
SOUTHERLY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING AOB 10-15KT.
SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 2-3 FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH 1-2 FT WAVES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...ALB/WRS
MARINE...AJZ/WRS



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280204
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1004 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
ISOLD SHWRS ARE STILL LINGERING OFFSHORE AND ALSO ALONG THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND LATE THIS EVENING. HAVE MAINTAINED MINIMAL POPS
(20%) FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE PCPN EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE.
OTW...SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NW
OVERNIGHT. MSTLY CLEAR TO PTLY CLOUDY N AND W TO MSTLY CLOUDY
ACROSS THE SE. LOWS FROM NEAR 60 NW TO NR 70 IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF FRI WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERING OVER
THE MID ATLC REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WX WITH A MSTLY SUNNY
SKY AND LO HUMIDITY. TEMPS WILL BE NR NORMAL FOR LATE AUG...WITH
HIGHS AVGG IN THE MID 80S. THE HI SLIDES OFFSHORE FRI NGT INTO SAT
WITH UPR-LEVEL ENERGY STAYING N OF THE FA AND DRY WX CONTINUING.
AFTER ERLY MORNG LOWS RANGING THRU THE 60S...TEMPS WILL MAX OUT IN
THE MID/UPR 80S SAT AFTN. SLGT WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO SUN
WITH HIGHS NR 90 IN MANY SPOTS AS SLY FLOW DEVELOPS. INCLUDED A
SLGT CHC OF A SHRA/TSTM SUN AS SOME MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ALOFT APPROACH FM THE SW. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO WIDESPREAD
ATTM HENCE THE LO POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY BROAD
MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A WEAK TROUGH
IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE SERN US.
WHETHER THIS IS IN THE FORM OF A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE OR SOME
FORM OF TS ERIKA IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. NONETHELESS...THE
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP DEEP MOISTURE SUPPRESSED S OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION. GIVEN THIS...ONLY DIURNAL POPS ARE
FORECAST...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SRN VA/NE NC AND IN THE 20-30%
RANGE. WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID NEXT WEEK WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S...WITH MID 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NW...WITH VFR CONDS XPCD THROUGH FRIDAY. MID CLDS ARE CURRENTLY
RESTRICTED TO NE NC...AND THOSE ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ERODE
OVERNIGHT. LIGHT N/NE WINDS OVERNIGHT...WILL GRADUALLY TURN OUT OF
THE SE ON FRIDAY AT KRIC/SBY BUT REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL NEAR/JUST N/E OF THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE WKND...WITH GENLY DRY/VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING (COULD SEE SOME PATCHY EARLY AM FOG SAT/SUN).

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELED...AS SEAS HAVE FALLEN TO
AROUND 4 FT...AND NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES COMBINED WITH WEAK
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS HELPING TO DRIVE A 15 KT
NE WIND OFF THE COAST OF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS. SEAS ARE
ELEVATED TO AROUND 4 FEET IN THE NE NC COASTAL WATERS...AND SHOULD
REMAIN THAT WAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. ELSEWHERE WIND SPEEDS ARE
GENERALLY AROUND 10 KT OUT OF THE N-NE. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING...BUT THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
TIGHTEN SOME TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY NUDGES EWD AND LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE
3-4FT N OF THE VA/NC BORDER TONIGHT...WITH 1 TO 2 FT WAVES IN THE
BAY...RIVERS AND SOUND. COULD BE AN ISOLATED 3 FOOT WAVE NEAR THE
MOUTH OF THE BAY THROUH 06Z...BUT SHOULD MAINLY BE 1-2 FT.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED NEAR OR SLIGHTLY OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WIND WILL
GENERALLY FLUCTUATE FROM NE-SE TROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND THEN TREND
SOUTHERLY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING AOB 10-15KT.
SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 2-3 FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH 1-2 FT WAVES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...ALB/WRS
MARINE...AJZ/WRS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280204
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1004 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
ISOLD SHWRS ARE STILL LINGERING OFFSHORE AND ALSO ALONG THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND LATE THIS EVENING. HAVE MAINTAINED MINIMAL POPS
(20%) FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE PCPN EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE.
OTW...SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NW
OVERNIGHT. MSTLY CLEAR TO PTLY CLOUDY N AND W TO MSTLY CLOUDY
ACROSS THE SE. LOWS FROM NEAR 60 NW TO NR 70 IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF FRI WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERING OVER
THE MID ATLC REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WX WITH A MSTLY SUNNY
SKY AND LO HUMIDITY. TEMPS WILL BE NR NORMAL FOR LATE AUG...WITH
HIGHS AVGG IN THE MID 80S. THE HI SLIDES OFFSHORE FRI NGT INTO SAT
WITH UPR-LEVEL ENERGY STAYING N OF THE FA AND DRY WX CONTINUING.
AFTER ERLY MORNG LOWS RANGING THRU THE 60S...TEMPS WILL MAX OUT IN
THE MID/UPR 80S SAT AFTN. SLGT WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO SUN
WITH HIGHS NR 90 IN MANY SPOTS AS SLY FLOW DEVELOPS. INCLUDED A
SLGT CHC OF A SHRA/TSTM SUN AS SOME MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ALOFT APPROACH FM THE SW. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO WIDESPREAD
ATTM HENCE THE LO POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY BROAD
MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A WEAK TROUGH
IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE SERN US.
WHETHER THIS IS IN THE FORM OF A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE OR SOME
FORM OF TS ERIKA IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. NONETHELESS...THE
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP DEEP MOISTURE SUPPRESSED S OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION. GIVEN THIS...ONLY DIURNAL POPS ARE
FORECAST...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SRN VA/NE NC AND IN THE 20-30%
RANGE. WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID NEXT WEEK WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S...WITH MID 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NW...WITH VFR CONDS XPCD THROUGH FRIDAY. MID CLDS ARE CURRENTLY
RESTRICTED TO NE NC...AND THOSE ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ERODE
OVERNIGHT. LIGHT N/NE WINDS OVERNIGHT...WILL GRADUALLY TURN OUT OF
THE SE ON FRIDAY AT KRIC/SBY BUT REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL NEAR/JUST N/E OF THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE WKND...WITH GENLY DRY/VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING (COULD SEE SOME PATCHY EARLY AM FOG SAT/SUN).

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELED...AS SEAS HAVE FALLEN TO
AROUND 4 FT...AND NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES COMBINED WITH WEAK
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS HELPING TO DRIVE A 15 KT
NE WIND OFF THE COAST OF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS. SEAS ARE
ELEVATED TO AROUND 4 FEET IN THE NE NC COASTAL WATERS...AND SHOULD
REMAIN THAT WAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. ELSEWHERE WIND SPEEDS ARE
GENERALLY AROUND 10 KT OUT OF THE N-NE. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING...BUT THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
TIGHTEN SOME TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY NUDGES EWD AND LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE
3-4FT N OF THE VA/NC BORDER TONIGHT...WITH 1 TO 2 FT WAVES IN THE
BAY...RIVERS AND SOUND. COULD BE AN ISOLATED 3 FOOT WAVE NEAR THE
MOUTH OF THE BAY THROUH 06Z...BUT SHOULD MAINLY BE 1-2 FT.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED NEAR OR SLIGHTLY OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WIND WILL
GENERALLY FLUCTUATE FROM NE-SE TROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND THEN TREND
SOUTHERLY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING AOB 10-15KT.
SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 2-3 FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH 1-2 FT WAVES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...ALB/WRS
MARINE...AJZ/WRS



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280204
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1004 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
ISOLD SHWRS ARE STILL LINGERING OFFSHORE AND ALSO ALONG THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND LATE THIS EVENING. HAVE MAINTAINED MINIMAL POPS
(20%) FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE PCPN EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE.
OTW...SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NW
OVERNIGHT. MSTLY CLEAR TO PTLY CLOUDY N AND W TO MSTLY CLOUDY
ACROSS THE SE. LOWS FROM NEAR 60 NW TO NR 70 IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF FRI WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERING OVER
THE MID ATLC REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WX WITH A MSTLY SUNNY
SKY AND LO HUMIDITY. TEMPS WILL BE NR NORMAL FOR LATE AUG...WITH
HIGHS AVGG IN THE MID 80S. THE HI SLIDES OFFSHORE FRI NGT INTO SAT
WITH UPR-LEVEL ENERGY STAYING N OF THE FA AND DRY WX CONTINUING.
AFTER ERLY MORNG LOWS RANGING THRU THE 60S...TEMPS WILL MAX OUT IN
THE MID/UPR 80S SAT AFTN. SLGT WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO SUN
WITH HIGHS NR 90 IN MANY SPOTS AS SLY FLOW DEVELOPS. INCLUDED A
SLGT CHC OF A SHRA/TSTM SUN AS SOME MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ALOFT APPROACH FM THE SW. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO WIDESPREAD
ATTM HENCE THE LO POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY BROAD
MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A WEAK TROUGH
IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE SERN US.
WHETHER THIS IS IN THE FORM OF A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE OR SOME
FORM OF TS ERIKA IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. NONETHELESS...THE
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP DEEP MOISTURE SUPPRESSED S OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION. GIVEN THIS...ONLY DIURNAL POPS ARE
FORECAST...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SRN VA/NE NC AND IN THE 20-30%
RANGE. WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID NEXT WEEK WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S...WITH MID 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NW...WITH VFR CONDS XPCD THROUGH FRIDAY. MID CLDS ARE CURRENTLY
RESTRICTED TO NE NC...AND THOSE ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ERODE
OVERNIGHT. LIGHT N/NE WINDS OVERNIGHT...WILL GRADUALLY TURN OUT OF
THE SE ON FRIDAY AT KRIC/SBY BUT REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL NEAR/JUST N/E OF THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE WKND...WITH GENLY DRY/VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING (COULD SEE SOME PATCHY EARLY AM FOG SAT/SUN).

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELED...AS SEAS HAVE FALLEN TO
AROUND 4 FT...AND NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES COMBINED WITH WEAK
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS HELPING TO DRIVE A 15 KT
NE WIND OFF THE COAST OF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS. SEAS ARE
ELEVATED TO AROUND 4 FEET IN THE NE NC COASTAL WATERS...AND SHOULD
REMAIN THAT WAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. ELSEWHERE WIND SPEEDS ARE
GENERALLY AROUND 10 KT OUT OF THE N-NE. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING...BUT THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
TIGHTEN SOME TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY NUDGES EWD AND LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE
3-4FT N OF THE VA/NC BORDER TONIGHT...WITH 1 TO 2 FT WAVES IN THE
BAY...RIVERS AND SOUND. COULD BE AN ISOLATED 3 FOOT WAVE NEAR THE
MOUTH OF THE BAY THROUH 06Z...BUT SHOULD MAINLY BE 1-2 FT.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED NEAR OR SLIGHTLY OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WIND WILL
GENERALLY FLUCTUATE FROM NE-SE TROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND THEN TREND
SOUTHERLY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING AOB 10-15KT.
SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 2-3 FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH 1-2 FT WAVES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...ALB/WRS
MARINE...AJZ/WRS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280119
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
919 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE HIGH BECOMES
CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY...BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A STATIONARY FRNTAL BNDRY OFF THE
CAROLINA CST WITH 1022 MB HI PRES CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. ALOFT...AN UPR-LEVEL TROF IS SITUATED OVER SE CANADA.
INCLUDED A SLGT CHC-CHC OF A SHRA THRU LATE THIS AFTN OVER NE NC
WHERE SOME MOISTURE IS STREAMING OVER THE FRNTAL BNDRY...BUT
NOTHING HEAVY EXPECTED...INCLUDING NO MENTION OF THUNDER. ANY
RAIN WILL END BY THE EVENG HRS AS SFC HI PRES CONTINUES TO BLD IN
FM THE NW. OTWS...EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS TNGT WITH LO TEMPS
RANGING FM NR 60 OVER THE PIEDMONT TO NR 70 NR THE CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF FRI WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERING OVER
THE MID ATLC REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WX WITH A MSTLY SUNNY
SKY AND LO HUMIDITY. TEMPS WILL BE NR NORMAL FOR LATE AUG...WITH
HIGHS AVGG IN THE MID 80S. THE HI SLIDES OFFSHORE FRI NGT INTO SAT
WITH UPR-LEVEL ENERGY STAYING N OF THE FA AND DRY WX CONTINUING.
AFTER ERLY MORNG LOWS RANGING THRU THE 60S...TEMPS WILL MAX OUT IN
THE MID/UPR 80S SAT AFTN. SLGT WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO SUN
WITH HIGHS NR 90 IN MANY SPOTS AS SLY FLOW DEVELOPS. INCLUDED A
SLGT CHC OF A SHRA/TSTM SUN AS SOME MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ALOFT APPROACH FM THE SW. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO WIDESPREAD
ATTM HENCE THE LO POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY BROAD
MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A WEAK TROUGH
IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE SERN US.
WHETHER THIS IS IN THE FORM OF A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE OR SOME
FORM OF TS ERIKA IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. NONETHELESS...THE
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP DEEP MOISTURE SUPPRESSED S OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION. GIVEN THIS...ONLY DIURNAL POPS ARE
FORECAST...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SRN VA/NE NC AND IN THE 20-30%
RANGE. WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID NEXT WEEK WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S...WITH MID 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NW...WITH VFR CONDS XPCD THROUGH FRIDAY. MID CLDS ARE CURRENTLY
RESTRICTED TO NE NC...AND THOSE ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ERODE
OVERNIGHT. LIGHT N/NE WINDS OVERNIGHT...WILL GRADUALLY TURN OUT OF
THE SE ON FRIDAY AT KRIC/SBY BUT REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL NEAR/JUST N/E OF THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE WKND...WITH GENLY DRY/VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING (COULD SEE SOME PATCHY EARLY AM FOG SAT/SUN).

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELED...AS SEAS HAVE FALLEN TO
AROUND 4 FT...AND NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES COMBINED WITH WEAK
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS HELPING TO DRIVE A 15 KT
NE WIND OFF THE COAST OF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS. SEAS ARE
ELEVATED TO AROUND 4 FEET IN THE NE NC COASTAL WATERS...AND SHOULD
REMAIN THAT WAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. ELSEWHERE WIND SPEEDS ARE
GENERALLY AROUND 10 KT OUT OF THE N-NE. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING...BUT THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
TIGHTEN SOME TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY NUDGES EWD AND LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE
3-4FT N OF THE VA/NC BORDER TONIGHT...WITH 1 TO 2 FT WAVES IN THE
BAY...RIVERS AND SOUND. COULD BE AN ISOLATED 3 FOOT WAVE NEAR THE
MOUTH OF THE BAY THROUH 06Z...BUT SHOULD MAINLY BE 1-2 FT.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED NEAR OR SLIGHTLY OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WIND WILL
GENERALLY FLUCTUATE FROM NE-SE TROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND THEN TREND
SOUTHERLY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING AOB 10-15KT.
SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 2-3 FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH 1-2 FT WAVES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...ALB/WRS
MARINE...AJZ/WRS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280119
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
919 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE HIGH BECOMES
CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY...BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A STATIONARY FRNTAL BNDRY OFF THE
CAROLINA CST WITH 1022 MB HI PRES CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. ALOFT...AN UPR-LEVEL TROF IS SITUATED OVER SE CANADA.
INCLUDED A SLGT CHC-CHC OF A SHRA THRU LATE THIS AFTN OVER NE NC
WHERE SOME MOISTURE IS STREAMING OVER THE FRNTAL BNDRY...BUT
NOTHING HEAVY EXPECTED...INCLUDING NO MENTION OF THUNDER. ANY
RAIN WILL END BY THE EVENG HRS AS SFC HI PRES CONTINUES TO BLD IN
FM THE NW. OTWS...EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS TNGT WITH LO TEMPS
RANGING FM NR 60 OVER THE PIEDMONT TO NR 70 NR THE CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF FRI WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERING OVER
THE MID ATLC REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WX WITH A MSTLY SUNNY
SKY AND LO HUMIDITY. TEMPS WILL BE NR NORMAL FOR LATE AUG...WITH
HIGHS AVGG IN THE MID 80S. THE HI SLIDES OFFSHORE FRI NGT INTO SAT
WITH UPR-LEVEL ENERGY STAYING N OF THE FA AND DRY WX CONTINUING.
AFTER ERLY MORNG LOWS RANGING THRU THE 60S...TEMPS WILL MAX OUT IN
THE MID/UPR 80S SAT AFTN. SLGT WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO SUN
WITH HIGHS NR 90 IN MANY SPOTS AS SLY FLOW DEVELOPS. INCLUDED A
SLGT CHC OF A SHRA/TSTM SUN AS SOME MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ALOFT APPROACH FM THE SW. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO WIDESPREAD
ATTM HENCE THE LO POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY BROAD
MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A WEAK TROUGH
IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE SERN US.
WHETHER THIS IS IN THE FORM OF A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE OR SOME
FORM OF TS ERIKA IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. NONETHELESS...THE
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP DEEP MOISTURE SUPPRESSED S OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION. GIVEN THIS...ONLY DIURNAL POPS ARE
FORECAST...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SRN VA/NE NC AND IN THE 20-30%
RANGE. WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID NEXT WEEK WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S...WITH MID 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NW...WITH VFR CONDS XPCD THROUGH FRIDAY. MID CLDS ARE CURRENTLY
RESTRICTED TO NE NC...AND THOSE ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ERODE
OVERNIGHT. LIGHT N/NE WINDS OVERNIGHT...WILL GRADUALLY TURN OUT OF
THE SE ON FRIDAY AT KRIC/SBY BUT REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL NEAR/JUST N/E OF THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE WKND...WITH GENLY DRY/VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING (COULD SEE SOME PATCHY EARLY AM FOG SAT/SUN).

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELED...AS SEAS HAVE FALLEN TO
AROUND 4 FT...AND NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES COMBINED WITH WEAK
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS HELPING TO DRIVE A 15 KT
NE WIND OFF THE COAST OF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS. SEAS ARE
ELEVATED TO AROUND 4 FEET IN THE NE NC COASTAL WATERS...AND SHOULD
REMAIN THAT WAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. ELSEWHERE WIND SPEEDS ARE
GENERALLY AROUND 10 KT OUT OF THE N-NE. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING...BUT THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
TIGHTEN SOME TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY NUDGES EWD AND LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE
3-4FT N OF THE VA/NC BORDER TONIGHT...WITH 1 TO 2 FT WAVES IN THE
BAY...RIVERS AND SOUND. COULD BE AN ISOLATED 3 FOOT WAVE NEAR THE
MOUTH OF THE BAY THROUH 06Z...BUT SHOULD MAINLY BE 1-2 FT.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED NEAR OR SLIGHTLY OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WIND WILL
GENERALLY FLUCTUATE FROM NE-SE TROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND THEN TREND
SOUTHERLY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING AOB 10-15KT.
SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 2-3 FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH 1-2 FT WAVES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...ALB/WRS
MARINE...AJZ/WRS



000
FXUS61 KLWX 280112 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
912 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR AND CALM TONIGHT UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. SINCE NO FOG
DEVELOPED LAST NIGHT WILL GO WITH PERSISTENCE AND REMOVE IT FROM
FCST. LOWS MID 50S TO LOW-MID 60S URBAN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE STAYS IN CONTROL FRIDAY AS THE CENTER MOVES OFF THE
EAST COAST. WINDS WILL BECOME S-SE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DEWPTS WILL
BEGIN TO RISE BUT SLOWLY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER MAY REACH THE VA
HIGHLANDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
OVERALL...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO PROBS XPCTD AS WE MOVE INTO THE LAST WKND OF AUG. HIGH PRES WL
BE MIGRATING FM THE UPR MIDWEST ACROSS THE MID ATLC...MODIFYING
THE AIR MASS SO THAT THE AREA XPRNCS INCSRG HUMIDITY/TEMPS OVR
THE WKND. HIGHS 85-90. LOWS 65-70. SLT CHC OF AFTN TSTMS OVR THE
MTNS.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON SOLUTIONS FOR
THE PERIOD OTHER THAN GENERAL RIDGING OVER REGION AND APPROACH OF
ERIKA NEAR END OF PERIOD. ECMWF SUGGESTS MODERATE PVA TO SUPPORT
STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING EARLY HALF OF PERIOD AND A WEAKER ERIKA
WHILE GFS SHOWS WEAKER SUPPORT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT A STRONGER
ERIKA.

LEANING TOWARDS GFS SOLUTION BUT HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF
ANY STORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. N WINDS 5-10KTS WILL
BECOME VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG MAY FORM AT MRB LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING BUT SHOULD NOT IMPACT TERMINALS. WINDS BECOME S-
SE FRIDAY 5-10KTS.

VFR CONDS XPCTD OVR THE WKND.

&&

.MARINE...
N WINDS 10-15KTS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER
THE WATERS. WINDS WILL BECOME S-SE FRIDAY.

WINDS XPCTD TO RMN BLO SCA VALUES THIS WKND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ABW
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...ABW
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...CEM/LFR/ABW
MARINE...CEM/LFR/ABW



000
FXUS61 KRNK 272357
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
757 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AND REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA INTO SATURDAY. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE NORTH ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS...MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE RESULTING IN
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...

WITH NO MAJOR SYNOPTIC CHANGES WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE RELATIVELY QUIET
WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
SLIDING BY TO OUR NORTH AND GIVING US LIGHT ELY/NELY WINDS...WHILE A
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FEATURING WEAK TROFING ALOFT WILL KEEP SOME SHORT
WAVE ENERGY FLOWING THROUGH THE REGION. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A
FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CU FIELD ACROSS THE REGION BUT AS OF EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON RADAR DOES NOT INDICATE ANY SHOWERS. HOWEVER...BELIEVE THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH OROGRAPHIC FORCING ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO
GENERATE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO. WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE FAR WEST WITH ANY SHOWERS DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET.
OVERNIGHT SHOULD SEE SOME FOG FORMATION AGAIN MAINLY IN THE VALLEYS
WEST OF THE RIDGE. FRIDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO
WHAT WE HAVE TODAY WITH ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON SHOWER
WEST OF THE RIDGE.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WITH LOWS AROUND 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT TO THE LOW/MID 50S WEST OF THE
RIDGE...AND HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S EAST TO GENERALLY MIDDLE 70S WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT THURSDAY...

RIDGING BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN DOMINANT TO START THE
WEEKEND WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY STAYING TO THE SOUTH/WEST
OF THE REGION INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THIS SEEN IN THE LATEST MODELS
INCLUDING FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT SHOW A MUCH DRIER COLUMN ALOFT THAN
SEEN FROM YESTERDAY. THEREFORE KEPT POPS OUT FRIDAY NIGHT AND CUT BACK
TO MORE ISOLATED MOUNTAIN COVERAGE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES WEST.

UPPER TROUGH SLIDING IN FROM THE NW BY SUNDAY WILL CAUSE HEIGHTS TO
LOWER WHILE IN TURN SCOOPING UP A WEAK SHORTWAVE FROM THE SOUTH ALONG
AN AXIS OF HIGHER PWATS. THIS WAVE ALONG WITH SOME UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO
THEN SLIDE NORTH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING A
DECENT AMOUNT OF WEAK LIFT DESPITE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.
AGAIN THINK ENOUGH TO BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS IN FROM THE SOUTH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERHAPS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ESPECIALLY
WESTERN HALF SUNDAY. COULD EVENTUALLY GO TO LOW LIKELY POPS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BUT GIVEN TREND OF MOISTURE/UVV SLIDING FARTHER WEST WILL
HOLD WITH HIGHER CHANCE POPS...EXCEPT MAINLY SLIGHT POPS PIEDMONT.

LITTLE CHANGE TO GOING TEMPS EXCEPT TO GO A BIT COOLER WEST UNDER MORE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS SUNDAY...OTHERWISE CLEAR/PC WITH HIGHS LOW/MID 80S AND
LOWS 58-65.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT THURSDAY...

WEAKNESS ALOFT SPLITTING THROUGH THE UPPER EASTERN RIDGE WILL BE ALONG
THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT PRIOR TO PINCHING OFF ALLOWING A WEAK
UPPER LOW TO SHIFT TO THE SW BEFORE HEIGHTS REBUILD EARLY NEXT WEEK
NORTH OF ERIKA. THIS COMBINED WITH A PIECE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
SLIDING UP FROM THE SOUTH...AND HIGHER PWATS SUPPORTS BETTER CHANCES OF
CONVECTION SUNDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE MOUNTAIN CHAIN. HOWEVER GIVEN WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IN PLACE...WONT
GO MUCH HIGHER THAN MEDIUM CHANCES WEST INTO MONDAY AND KEEP MOSTLY
ISOLATED FAR EAST. PASSING OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD ALLOW RIDGING ALOFT
TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST...AND ENHANCED BY LIKELY
SUBSIDENCE TO THE NORTH OF ERIKA OFF THE FLORIDA/SE COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THUS EXPECTING A GRADUAL DECREASE IN POPS STARTING TUESDAY
WITH PERHAPS ONLY ISOLATED MOUNTAIN COVERAGE AT BEST BY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. HOWEVER PENDING TRACK OF ERIKA COULD SEE ENOUGH MOISTURE
PUSHED INTO THE PIEDMONT WITHIN THE EASTERLY FETCH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST ON DAY7 SO KEPT MAINLY ISOLATED POPS
IN SPOTS. OTHERWISE MORE CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THEN PC TO
MOSTLY SUNNY AND MOSTLY CLEAR AT NIGHT INTO MIDWEEK FOR NOW.

TEMPS BASICALLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS EXCEPT FOR
INCREASING MOISTURE. THUS RUNNING WITH MAINLY LOW 80S WEST TO MID/UPPER
80S EAST...WITH OVERALL LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S...CLOSER TO THE WARMER
EC MOS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT THURSDAY...

THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN VISUAL FLIGHT RULES.
THERE WILL BE PATCHY MARGINAL VISUAL FLIGHT RULES MIST IN THE
RIVER AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. ALSO...PATCHY AREAS OF MARGINAL VISUAL
FLIGHT RULE CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...MAINLY ALONG AND A
COUPLE TIERS OF COUNTIES WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. ANY SUB-VISUAL
FLIGHT RULE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VISUAL FLIGHT
RULES BY 14Z/10AM FRIDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN CALM OR LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ALSO THROUGH THIS TIME FRIDAY MORNING. BY THE LATE
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON A SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH 5 TO 10 KNOT
WIND IS EXPECTED.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT THURSDAY...

EXPECT A MAINLY VFR FORECAST INTO SUNDAY. MOISTURE GRADUALLY
INCREASES BY THE WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE.
TYPICAL LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING MVFR TO LIFR FOG THREAT AT
LWB/BCB/LYH THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...AMS/DS/MBS



000
FXUS61 KRNK 272357
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
757 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AND REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA INTO SATURDAY. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE NORTH ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS...MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE RESULTING IN
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...

WITH NO MAJOR SYNOPTIC CHANGES WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE RELATIVELY QUIET
WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
SLIDING BY TO OUR NORTH AND GIVING US LIGHT ELY/NELY WINDS...WHILE A
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FEATURING WEAK TROFING ALOFT WILL KEEP SOME SHORT
WAVE ENERGY FLOWING THROUGH THE REGION. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A
FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CU FIELD ACROSS THE REGION BUT AS OF EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON RADAR DOES NOT INDICATE ANY SHOWERS. HOWEVER...BELIEVE THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH OROGRAPHIC FORCING ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO
GENERATE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO. WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE FAR WEST WITH ANY SHOWERS DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET.
OVERNIGHT SHOULD SEE SOME FOG FORMATION AGAIN MAINLY IN THE VALLEYS
WEST OF THE RIDGE. FRIDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO
WHAT WE HAVE TODAY WITH ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON SHOWER
WEST OF THE RIDGE.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WITH LOWS AROUND 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT TO THE LOW/MID 50S WEST OF THE
RIDGE...AND HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S EAST TO GENERALLY MIDDLE 70S WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT THURSDAY...

RIDGING BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN DOMINANT TO START THE
WEEKEND WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY STAYING TO THE SOUTH/WEST
OF THE REGION INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THIS SEEN IN THE LATEST MODELS
INCLUDING FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT SHOW A MUCH DRIER COLUMN ALOFT THAN
SEEN FROM YESTERDAY. THEREFORE KEPT POPS OUT FRIDAY NIGHT AND CUT BACK
TO MORE ISOLATED MOUNTAIN COVERAGE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES WEST.

UPPER TROUGH SLIDING IN FROM THE NW BY SUNDAY WILL CAUSE HEIGHTS TO
LOWER WHILE IN TURN SCOOPING UP A WEAK SHORTWAVE FROM THE SOUTH ALONG
AN AXIS OF HIGHER PWATS. THIS WAVE ALONG WITH SOME UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO
THEN SLIDE NORTH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING A
DECENT AMOUNT OF WEAK LIFT DESPITE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.
AGAIN THINK ENOUGH TO BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS IN FROM THE SOUTH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERHAPS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ESPECIALLY
WESTERN HALF SUNDAY. COULD EVENTUALLY GO TO LOW LIKELY POPS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BUT GIVEN TREND OF MOISTURE/UVV SLIDING FARTHER WEST WILL
HOLD WITH HIGHER CHANCE POPS...EXCEPT MAINLY SLIGHT POPS PIEDMONT.

LITTLE CHANGE TO GOING TEMPS EXCEPT TO GO A BIT COOLER WEST UNDER MORE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS SUNDAY...OTHERWISE CLEAR/PC WITH HIGHS LOW/MID 80S AND
LOWS 58-65.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT THURSDAY...

WEAKNESS ALOFT SPLITTING THROUGH THE UPPER EASTERN RIDGE WILL BE ALONG
THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT PRIOR TO PINCHING OFF ALLOWING A WEAK
UPPER LOW TO SHIFT TO THE SW BEFORE HEIGHTS REBUILD EARLY NEXT WEEK
NORTH OF ERIKA. THIS COMBINED WITH A PIECE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
SLIDING UP FROM THE SOUTH...AND HIGHER PWATS SUPPORTS BETTER CHANCES OF
CONVECTION SUNDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE MOUNTAIN CHAIN. HOWEVER GIVEN WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IN PLACE...WONT
GO MUCH HIGHER THAN MEDIUM CHANCES WEST INTO MONDAY AND KEEP MOSTLY
ISOLATED FAR EAST. PASSING OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD ALLOW RIDGING ALOFT
TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST...AND ENHANCED BY LIKELY
SUBSIDENCE TO THE NORTH OF ERIKA OFF THE FLORIDA/SE COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THUS EXPECTING A GRADUAL DECREASE IN POPS STARTING TUESDAY
WITH PERHAPS ONLY ISOLATED MOUNTAIN COVERAGE AT BEST BY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. HOWEVER PENDING TRACK OF ERIKA COULD SEE ENOUGH MOISTURE
PUSHED INTO THE PIEDMONT WITHIN THE EASTERLY FETCH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST ON DAY7 SO KEPT MAINLY ISOLATED POPS
IN SPOTS. OTHERWISE MORE CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THEN PC TO
MOSTLY SUNNY AND MOSTLY CLEAR AT NIGHT INTO MIDWEEK FOR NOW.

TEMPS BASICALLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS EXCEPT FOR
INCREASING MOISTURE. THUS RUNNING WITH MAINLY LOW 80S WEST TO MID/UPPER
80S EAST...WITH OVERALL LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S...CLOSER TO THE WARMER
EC MOS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT THURSDAY...

THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN VISUAL FLIGHT RULES.
THERE WILL BE PATCHY MARGINAL VISUAL FLIGHT RULES MIST IN THE
RIVER AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. ALSO...PATCHY AREAS OF MARGINAL VISUAL
FLIGHT RULE CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...MAINLY ALONG AND A
COUPLE TIERS OF COUNTIES WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. ANY SUB-VISUAL
FLIGHT RULE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VISUAL FLIGHT
RULES BY 14Z/10AM FRIDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN CALM OR LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ALSO THROUGH THIS TIME FRIDAY MORNING. BY THE LATE
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON A SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH 5 TO 10 KNOT
WIND IS EXPECTED.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT THURSDAY...

EXPECT A MAINLY VFR FORECAST INTO SUNDAY. MOISTURE GRADUALLY
INCREASES BY THE WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE.
TYPICAL LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING MVFR TO LIFR FOG THREAT AT
LWB/BCB/LYH THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...AMS/DS/MBS



000
FXUS61 KRNK 272357
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
757 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AND REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA INTO SATURDAY. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE NORTH ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS...MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE RESULTING IN
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...

WITH NO MAJOR SYNOPTIC CHANGES WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE RELATIVELY QUIET
WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
SLIDING BY TO OUR NORTH AND GIVING US LIGHT ELY/NELY WINDS...WHILE A
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FEATURING WEAK TROFING ALOFT WILL KEEP SOME SHORT
WAVE ENERGY FLOWING THROUGH THE REGION. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A
FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CU FIELD ACROSS THE REGION BUT AS OF EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON RADAR DOES NOT INDICATE ANY SHOWERS. HOWEVER...BELIEVE THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH OROGRAPHIC FORCING ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO
GENERATE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO. WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE FAR WEST WITH ANY SHOWERS DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET.
OVERNIGHT SHOULD SEE SOME FOG FORMATION AGAIN MAINLY IN THE VALLEYS
WEST OF THE RIDGE. FRIDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO
WHAT WE HAVE TODAY WITH ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON SHOWER
WEST OF THE RIDGE.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WITH LOWS AROUND 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT TO THE LOW/MID 50S WEST OF THE
RIDGE...AND HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S EAST TO GENERALLY MIDDLE 70S WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT THURSDAY...

RIDGING BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN DOMINANT TO START THE
WEEKEND WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY STAYING TO THE SOUTH/WEST
OF THE REGION INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THIS SEEN IN THE LATEST MODELS
INCLUDING FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT SHOW A MUCH DRIER COLUMN ALOFT THAN
SEEN FROM YESTERDAY. THEREFORE KEPT POPS OUT FRIDAY NIGHT AND CUT BACK
TO MORE ISOLATED MOUNTAIN COVERAGE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES WEST.

UPPER TROUGH SLIDING IN FROM THE NW BY SUNDAY WILL CAUSE HEIGHTS TO
LOWER WHILE IN TURN SCOOPING UP A WEAK SHORTWAVE FROM THE SOUTH ALONG
AN AXIS OF HIGHER PWATS. THIS WAVE ALONG WITH SOME UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO
THEN SLIDE NORTH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING A
DECENT AMOUNT OF WEAK LIFT DESPITE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.
AGAIN THINK ENOUGH TO BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS IN FROM THE SOUTH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERHAPS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ESPECIALLY
WESTERN HALF SUNDAY. COULD EVENTUALLY GO TO LOW LIKELY POPS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BUT GIVEN TREND OF MOISTURE/UVV SLIDING FARTHER WEST WILL
HOLD WITH HIGHER CHANCE POPS...EXCEPT MAINLY SLIGHT POPS PIEDMONT.

LITTLE CHANGE TO GOING TEMPS EXCEPT TO GO A BIT COOLER WEST UNDER MORE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS SUNDAY...OTHERWISE CLEAR/PC WITH HIGHS LOW/MID 80S AND
LOWS 58-65.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT THURSDAY...

WEAKNESS ALOFT SPLITTING THROUGH THE UPPER EASTERN RIDGE WILL BE ALONG
THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT PRIOR TO PINCHING OFF ALLOWING A WEAK
UPPER LOW TO SHIFT TO THE SW BEFORE HEIGHTS REBUILD EARLY NEXT WEEK
NORTH OF ERIKA. THIS COMBINED WITH A PIECE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
SLIDING UP FROM THE SOUTH...AND HIGHER PWATS SUPPORTS BETTER CHANCES OF
CONVECTION SUNDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE MOUNTAIN CHAIN. HOWEVER GIVEN WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IN PLACE...WONT
GO MUCH HIGHER THAN MEDIUM CHANCES WEST INTO MONDAY AND KEEP MOSTLY
ISOLATED FAR EAST. PASSING OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD ALLOW RIDGING ALOFT
TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST...AND ENHANCED BY LIKELY
SUBSIDENCE TO THE NORTH OF ERIKA OFF THE FLORIDA/SE COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THUS EXPECTING A GRADUAL DECREASE IN POPS STARTING TUESDAY
WITH PERHAPS ONLY ISOLATED MOUNTAIN COVERAGE AT BEST BY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. HOWEVER PENDING TRACK OF ERIKA COULD SEE ENOUGH MOISTURE
PUSHED INTO THE PIEDMONT WITHIN THE EASTERLY FETCH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST ON DAY7 SO KEPT MAINLY ISOLATED POPS
IN SPOTS. OTHERWISE MORE CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THEN PC TO
MOSTLY SUNNY AND MOSTLY CLEAR AT NIGHT INTO MIDWEEK FOR NOW.

TEMPS BASICALLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS EXCEPT FOR
INCREASING MOISTURE. THUS RUNNING WITH MAINLY LOW 80S WEST TO MID/UPPER
80S EAST...WITH OVERALL LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S...CLOSER TO THE WARMER
EC MOS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT THURSDAY...

THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN VISUAL FLIGHT RULES.
THERE WILL BE PATCHY MARGINAL VISUAL FLIGHT RULES MIST IN THE
RIVER AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. ALSO...PATCHY AREAS OF MARGINAL VISUAL
FLIGHT RULE CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...MAINLY ALONG AND A
COUPLE TIERS OF COUNTIES WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. ANY SUB-VISUAL
FLIGHT RULE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VISUAL FLIGHT
RULES BY 14Z/10AM FRIDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN CALM OR LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ALSO THROUGH THIS TIME FRIDAY MORNING. BY THE LATE
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON A SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH 5 TO 10 KNOT
WIND IS EXPECTED.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT THURSDAY...

EXPECT A MAINLY VFR FORECAST INTO SUNDAY. MOISTURE GRADUALLY
INCREASES BY THE WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE.
TYPICAL LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING MVFR TO LIFR FOG THREAT AT
LWB/BCB/LYH THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...AMS/DS/MBS



000
FXUS61 KRNK 272357
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
757 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AND REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA INTO SATURDAY. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE NORTH ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS...MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE RESULTING IN
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...

WITH NO MAJOR SYNOPTIC CHANGES WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE RELATIVELY QUIET
WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
SLIDING BY TO OUR NORTH AND GIVING US LIGHT ELY/NELY WINDS...WHILE A
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FEATURING WEAK TROFING ALOFT WILL KEEP SOME SHORT
WAVE ENERGY FLOWING THROUGH THE REGION. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A
FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CU FIELD ACROSS THE REGION BUT AS OF EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON RADAR DOES NOT INDICATE ANY SHOWERS. HOWEVER...BELIEVE THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH OROGRAPHIC FORCING ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO
GENERATE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO. WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE FAR WEST WITH ANY SHOWERS DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET.
OVERNIGHT SHOULD SEE SOME FOG FORMATION AGAIN MAINLY IN THE VALLEYS
WEST OF THE RIDGE. FRIDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO
WHAT WE HAVE TODAY WITH ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON SHOWER
WEST OF THE RIDGE.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WITH LOWS AROUND 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT TO THE LOW/MID 50S WEST OF THE
RIDGE...AND HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S EAST TO GENERALLY MIDDLE 70S WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT THURSDAY...

RIDGING BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN DOMINANT TO START THE
WEEKEND WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY STAYING TO THE SOUTH/WEST
OF THE REGION INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THIS SEEN IN THE LATEST MODELS
INCLUDING FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT SHOW A MUCH DRIER COLUMN ALOFT THAN
SEEN FROM YESTERDAY. THEREFORE KEPT POPS OUT FRIDAY NIGHT AND CUT BACK
TO MORE ISOLATED MOUNTAIN COVERAGE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES WEST.

UPPER TROUGH SLIDING IN FROM THE NW BY SUNDAY WILL CAUSE HEIGHTS TO
LOWER WHILE IN TURN SCOOPING UP A WEAK SHORTWAVE FROM THE SOUTH ALONG
AN AXIS OF HIGHER PWATS. THIS WAVE ALONG WITH SOME UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO
THEN SLIDE NORTH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING A
DECENT AMOUNT OF WEAK LIFT DESPITE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.
AGAIN THINK ENOUGH TO BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS IN FROM THE SOUTH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERHAPS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ESPECIALLY
WESTERN HALF SUNDAY. COULD EVENTUALLY GO TO LOW LIKELY POPS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BUT GIVEN TREND OF MOISTURE/UVV SLIDING FARTHER WEST WILL
HOLD WITH HIGHER CHANCE POPS...EXCEPT MAINLY SLIGHT POPS PIEDMONT.

LITTLE CHANGE TO GOING TEMPS EXCEPT TO GO A BIT COOLER WEST UNDER MORE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS SUNDAY...OTHERWISE CLEAR/PC WITH HIGHS LOW/MID 80S AND
LOWS 58-65.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT THURSDAY...

WEAKNESS ALOFT SPLITTING THROUGH THE UPPER EASTERN RIDGE WILL BE ALONG
THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT PRIOR TO PINCHING OFF ALLOWING A WEAK
UPPER LOW TO SHIFT TO THE SW BEFORE HEIGHTS REBUILD EARLY NEXT WEEK
NORTH OF ERIKA. THIS COMBINED WITH A PIECE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
SLIDING UP FROM THE SOUTH...AND HIGHER PWATS SUPPORTS BETTER CHANCES OF
CONVECTION SUNDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE MOUNTAIN CHAIN. HOWEVER GIVEN WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IN PLACE...WONT
GO MUCH HIGHER THAN MEDIUM CHANCES WEST INTO MONDAY AND KEEP MOSTLY
ISOLATED FAR EAST. PASSING OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD ALLOW RIDGING ALOFT
TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST...AND ENHANCED BY LIKELY
SUBSIDENCE TO THE NORTH OF ERIKA OFF THE FLORIDA/SE COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THUS EXPECTING A GRADUAL DECREASE IN POPS STARTING TUESDAY
WITH PERHAPS ONLY ISOLATED MOUNTAIN COVERAGE AT BEST BY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. HOWEVER PENDING TRACK OF ERIKA COULD SEE ENOUGH MOISTURE
PUSHED INTO THE PIEDMONT WITHIN THE EASTERLY FETCH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST ON DAY7 SO KEPT MAINLY ISOLATED POPS
IN SPOTS. OTHERWISE MORE CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THEN PC TO
MOSTLY SUNNY AND MOSTLY CLEAR AT NIGHT INTO MIDWEEK FOR NOW.

TEMPS BASICALLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS EXCEPT FOR
INCREASING MOISTURE. THUS RUNNING WITH MAINLY LOW 80S WEST TO MID/UPPER
80S EAST...WITH OVERALL LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S...CLOSER TO THE WARMER
EC MOS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT THURSDAY...

THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN VISUAL FLIGHT RULES.
THERE WILL BE PATCHY MARGINAL VISUAL FLIGHT RULES MIST IN THE
RIVER AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. ALSO...PATCHY AREAS OF MARGINAL VISUAL
FLIGHT RULE CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...MAINLY ALONG AND A
COUPLE TIERS OF COUNTIES WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. ANY SUB-VISUAL
FLIGHT RULE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VISUAL FLIGHT
RULES BY 14Z/10AM FRIDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN CALM OR LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ALSO THROUGH THIS TIME FRIDAY MORNING. BY THE LATE
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON A SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH 5 TO 10 KNOT
WIND IS EXPECTED.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT THURSDAY...

EXPECT A MAINLY VFR FORECAST INTO SUNDAY. MOISTURE GRADUALLY
INCREASES BY THE WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE.
TYPICAL LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING MVFR TO LIFR FOG THREAT AT
LWB/BCB/LYH THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...AMS/DS/MBS



000
FXUS61 KRNK 272357
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
757 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AND REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA INTO SATURDAY. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE NORTH ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS...MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE RESULTING IN
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...

WITH NO MAJOR SYNOPTIC CHANGES WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE RELATIVELY QUIET
WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
SLIDING BY TO OUR NORTH AND GIVING US LIGHT ELY/NELY WINDS...WHILE A
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FEATURING WEAK TROFING ALOFT WILL KEEP SOME SHORT
WAVE ENERGY FLOWING THROUGH THE REGION. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A
FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CU FIELD ACROSS THE REGION BUT AS OF EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON RADAR DOES NOT INDICATE ANY SHOWERS. HOWEVER...BELIEVE THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH OROGRAPHIC FORCING ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO
GENERATE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO. WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE FAR WEST WITH ANY SHOWERS DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET.
OVERNIGHT SHOULD SEE SOME FOG FORMATION AGAIN MAINLY IN THE VALLEYS
WEST OF THE RIDGE. FRIDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO
WHAT WE HAVE TODAY WITH ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON SHOWER
WEST OF THE RIDGE.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WITH LOWS AROUND 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT TO THE LOW/MID 50S WEST OF THE
RIDGE...AND HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S EAST TO GENERALLY MIDDLE 70S WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT THURSDAY...

RIDGING BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN DOMINANT TO START THE
WEEKEND WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY STAYING TO THE SOUTH/WEST
OF THE REGION INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THIS SEEN IN THE LATEST MODELS
INCLUDING FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT SHOW A MUCH DRIER COLUMN ALOFT THAN
SEEN FROM YESTERDAY. THEREFORE KEPT POPS OUT FRIDAY NIGHT AND CUT BACK
TO MORE ISOLATED MOUNTAIN COVERAGE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES WEST.

UPPER TROUGH SLIDING IN FROM THE NW BY SUNDAY WILL CAUSE HEIGHTS TO
LOWER WHILE IN TURN SCOOPING UP A WEAK SHORTWAVE FROM THE SOUTH ALONG
AN AXIS OF HIGHER PWATS. THIS WAVE ALONG WITH SOME UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO
THEN SLIDE NORTH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING A
DECENT AMOUNT OF WEAK LIFT DESPITE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.
AGAIN THINK ENOUGH TO BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS IN FROM THE SOUTH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERHAPS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ESPECIALLY
WESTERN HALF SUNDAY. COULD EVENTUALLY GO TO LOW LIKELY POPS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BUT GIVEN TREND OF MOISTURE/UVV SLIDING FARTHER WEST WILL
HOLD WITH HIGHER CHANCE POPS...EXCEPT MAINLY SLIGHT POPS PIEDMONT.

LITTLE CHANGE TO GOING TEMPS EXCEPT TO GO A BIT COOLER WEST UNDER MORE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS SUNDAY...OTHERWISE CLEAR/PC WITH HIGHS LOW/MID 80S AND
LOWS 58-65.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT THURSDAY...

WEAKNESS ALOFT SPLITTING THROUGH THE UPPER EASTERN RIDGE WILL BE ALONG
THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT PRIOR TO PINCHING OFF ALLOWING A WEAK
UPPER LOW TO SHIFT TO THE SW BEFORE HEIGHTS REBUILD EARLY NEXT WEEK
NORTH OF ERIKA. THIS COMBINED WITH A PIECE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
SLIDING UP FROM THE SOUTH...AND HIGHER PWATS SUPPORTS BETTER CHANCES OF
CONVECTION SUNDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE MOUNTAIN CHAIN. HOWEVER GIVEN WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IN PLACE...WONT
GO MUCH HIGHER THAN MEDIUM CHANCES WEST INTO MONDAY AND KEEP MOSTLY
ISOLATED FAR EAST. PASSING OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD ALLOW RIDGING ALOFT
TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST...AND ENHANCED BY LIKELY
SUBSIDENCE TO THE NORTH OF ERIKA OFF THE FLORIDA/SE COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THUS EXPECTING A GRADUAL DECREASE IN POPS STARTING TUESDAY
WITH PERHAPS ONLY ISOLATED MOUNTAIN COVERAGE AT BEST BY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. HOWEVER PENDING TRACK OF ERIKA COULD SEE ENOUGH MOISTURE
PUSHED INTO THE PIEDMONT WITHIN THE EASTERLY FETCH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST ON DAY7 SO KEPT MAINLY ISOLATED POPS
IN SPOTS. OTHERWISE MORE CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THEN PC TO
MOSTLY SUNNY AND MOSTLY CLEAR AT NIGHT INTO MIDWEEK FOR NOW.

TEMPS BASICALLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS EXCEPT FOR
INCREASING MOISTURE. THUS RUNNING WITH MAINLY LOW 80S WEST TO MID/UPPER
80S EAST...WITH OVERALL LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S...CLOSER TO THE WARMER
EC MOS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT THURSDAY...

THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN VISUAL FLIGHT RULES.
THERE WILL BE PATCHY MARGINAL VISUAL FLIGHT RULES MIST IN THE
RIVER AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. ALSO...PATCHY AREAS OF MARGINAL VISUAL
FLIGHT RULE CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...MAINLY ALONG AND A
COUPLE TIERS OF COUNTIES WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. ANY SUB-VISUAL
FLIGHT RULE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VISUAL FLIGHT
RULES BY 14Z/10AM FRIDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN CALM OR LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ALSO THROUGH THIS TIME FRIDAY MORNING. BY THE LATE
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON A SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH 5 TO 10 KNOT
WIND IS EXPECTED.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT THURSDAY...

EXPECT A MAINLY VFR FORECAST INTO SUNDAY. MOISTURE GRADUALLY
INCREASES BY THE WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE.
TYPICAL LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING MVFR TO LIFR FOG THREAT AT
LWB/BCB/LYH THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...AMS/DS/MBS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 272357
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
757 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AND REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA INTO SATURDAY. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE NORTH ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS...MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE RESULTING IN
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...

WITH NO MAJOR SYNOPTIC CHANGES WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE RELATIVELY QUIET
WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
SLIDING BY TO OUR NORTH AND GIVING US LIGHT ELY/NELY WINDS...WHILE A
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FEATURING WEAK TROFING ALOFT WILL KEEP SOME SHORT
WAVE ENERGY FLOWING THROUGH THE REGION. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A
FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CU FIELD ACROSS THE REGION BUT AS OF EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON RADAR DOES NOT INDICATE ANY SHOWERS. HOWEVER...BELIEVE THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH OROGRAPHIC FORCING ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO
GENERATE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO. WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE FAR WEST WITH ANY SHOWERS DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET.
OVERNIGHT SHOULD SEE SOME FOG FORMATION AGAIN MAINLY IN THE VALLEYS
WEST OF THE RIDGE. FRIDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO
WHAT WE HAVE TODAY WITH ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON SHOWER
WEST OF THE RIDGE.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WITH LOWS AROUND 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT TO THE LOW/MID 50S WEST OF THE
RIDGE...AND HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S EAST TO GENERALLY MIDDLE 70S WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT THURSDAY...

RIDGING BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN DOMINANT TO START THE
WEEKEND WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY STAYING TO THE SOUTH/WEST
OF THE REGION INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THIS SEEN IN THE LATEST MODELS
INCLUDING FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT SHOW A MUCH DRIER COLUMN ALOFT THAN
SEEN FROM YESTERDAY. THEREFORE KEPT POPS OUT FRIDAY NIGHT AND CUT BACK
TO MORE ISOLATED MOUNTAIN COVERAGE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES WEST.

UPPER TROUGH SLIDING IN FROM THE NW BY SUNDAY WILL CAUSE HEIGHTS TO
LOWER WHILE IN TURN SCOOPING UP A WEAK SHORTWAVE FROM THE SOUTH ALONG
AN AXIS OF HIGHER PWATS. THIS WAVE ALONG WITH SOME UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO
THEN SLIDE NORTH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING A
DECENT AMOUNT OF WEAK LIFT DESPITE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.
AGAIN THINK ENOUGH TO BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS IN FROM THE SOUTH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERHAPS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ESPECIALLY
WESTERN HALF SUNDAY. COULD EVENTUALLY GO TO LOW LIKELY POPS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BUT GIVEN TREND OF MOISTURE/UVV SLIDING FARTHER WEST WILL
HOLD WITH HIGHER CHANCE POPS...EXCEPT MAINLY SLIGHT POPS PIEDMONT.

LITTLE CHANGE TO GOING TEMPS EXCEPT TO GO A BIT COOLER WEST UNDER MORE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS SUNDAY...OTHERWISE CLEAR/PC WITH HIGHS LOW/MID 80S AND
LOWS 58-65.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT THURSDAY...

WEAKNESS ALOFT SPLITTING THROUGH THE UPPER EASTERN RIDGE WILL BE ALONG
THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT PRIOR TO PINCHING OFF ALLOWING A WEAK
UPPER LOW TO SHIFT TO THE SW BEFORE HEIGHTS REBUILD EARLY NEXT WEEK
NORTH OF ERIKA. THIS COMBINED WITH A PIECE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
SLIDING UP FROM THE SOUTH...AND HIGHER PWATS SUPPORTS BETTER CHANCES OF
CONVECTION SUNDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE MOUNTAIN CHAIN. HOWEVER GIVEN WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IN PLACE...WONT
GO MUCH HIGHER THAN MEDIUM CHANCES WEST INTO MONDAY AND KEEP MOSTLY
ISOLATED FAR EAST. PASSING OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD ALLOW RIDGING ALOFT
TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST...AND ENHANCED BY LIKELY
SUBSIDENCE TO THE NORTH OF ERIKA OFF THE FLORIDA/SE COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THUS EXPECTING A GRADUAL DECREASE IN POPS STARTING TUESDAY
WITH PERHAPS ONLY ISOLATED MOUNTAIN COVERAGE AT BEST BY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. HOWEVER PENDING TRACK OF ERIKA COULD SEE ENOUGH MOISTURE
PUSHED INTO THE PIEDMONT WITHIN THE EASTERLY FETCH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST ON DAY7 SO KEPT MAINLY ISOLATED POPS
IN SPOTS. OTHERWISE MORE CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THEN PC TO
MOSTLY SUNNY AND MOSTLY CLEAR AT NIGHT INTO MIDWEEK FOR NOW.

TEMPS BASICALLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS EXCEPT FOR
INCREASING MOISTURE. THUS RUNNING WITH MAINLY LOW 80S WEST TO MID/UPPER
80S EAST...WITH OVERALL LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S...CLOSER TO THE WARMER
EC MOS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT THURSDAY...

THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN VISUAL FLIGHT RULES.
THERE WILL BE PATCHY MARGINAL VISUAL FLIGHT RULES MIST IN THE
RIVER AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. ALSO...PATCHY AREAS OF MARGINAL VISUAL
FLIGHT RULE CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...MAINLY ALONG AND A
COUPLE TIERS OF COUNTIES WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. ANY SUB-VISUAL
FLIGHT RULE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VISUAL FLIGHT
RULES BY 14Z/10AM FRIDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN CALM OR LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ALSO THROUGH THIS TIME FRIDAY MORNING. BY THE LATE
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON A SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH 5 TO 10 KNOT
WIND IS EXPECTED.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT THURSDAY...

EXPECT A MAINLY VFR FORECAST INTO SUNDAY. MOISTURE GRADUALLY
INCREASES BY THE WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE.
TYPICAL LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING MVFR TO LIFR FOG THREAT AT
LWB/BCB/LYH THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...AMS/DS/MBS



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 272257
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
657 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE HIGH BECOMES
CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY...BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A STATIONARY FRNTAL BNDRY OFF THE
CAROLINA CST WITH 1022 MB HI PRES CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. ALOFT...AN UPR-LEVEL TROF IS SITUATED OVER SE CANADA.
INCLUDED A SLGT CHC-CHC OF A SHRA THRU LATE THIS AFTN OVER NE NC
WHERE SOME MOISTURE IS STREAMING OVER THE FRNTAL BNDRY...BUT
NOTHING HEAVY EXPECTED...INCLUDING NO MENTION OF THUNDER. ANY
RAIN WILL END BY THE EVENG HRS AS SFC HI PRES CONTINUES TO BLD IN
FM THE NW. OTWS...EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS TNGT WITH LO TEMPS
RANGING FM NR 60 OVER THE PIEDMONT TO NR 70 NR THE CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF FRI WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERING OVER
THE MID ATLC REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WX WITH A MSTLY SUNNY
SKY AND LO HUMIDITY. TEMPS WILL BE NR NORMAL FOR LATE AUG...WITH
HIGHS AVGG IN THE MID 80S. THE HI SLIDES OFFSHORE FRI NGT INTO SAT
WITH UPR-LEVEL ENERGY STAYING N OF THE FA AND DRY WX CONTINUING.
AFTER ERLY MORNG LOWS RANGING THRU THE 60S...TEMPS WILL MAX OUT IN
THE MID/UPR 80S SAT AFTN. SLGT WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO SUN
WITH HIGHS NR 90 IN MANY SPOTS AS SLY FLOW DEVELOPS. INCLUDED A
SLGT CHC OF A SHRA/TSTM SUN AS SOME MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ALOFT APPROACH FM THE SW. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO WIDESPREAD
ATTM HENCE THE LO POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY BROAD
MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A WEAK TROUGH
IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE SERN US.
WHETHER THIS IS IN THE FORM OF A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE OR SOME
FORM OF TS ERIKA IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. NONETHELESS...THE
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP DEEP MOISTURE SUPPRESSED S OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION. GIVEN THIS...ONLY DIURNAL POPS ARE
FORECAST...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SRN VA/NE NC AND IN THE 20-30%
RANGE. WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID NEXT WEEK WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S...WITH MID 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NW...WITH VFR CONDS XPCD THROUGH FRIDAY. MID CLDS ARE CURRENTLY
RESTRICTED TO NE NC...AND THOSE ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ERODE
OVERNIGHT. LIGHT N/NE WINDS OVERNIGHT...WILL GRADUALLY TURN OUT OF
THE SE ON FRIDAY AT KRIC/SBY BUT REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL NEAR/JUST N/E OF THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE WKND...WITH GENLY DRY/VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING (COULD SEE SOME PATCHY EARLY AM FOG SAT/SUN).

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES COMBINED WITH WEAK LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS HELPING TO DRIVE A 15-20KT NE
WIND OFF THE COAST OF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS. THIS IS RESULTING
IN SEAS OF 4-5 FT. ELSEWHERE WIND SPEEDS ARE GENERALLY 10-15KT OUT
OF THE N-NE. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THIS
EVENING...BUT THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN SOME TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY NUDGES EWD AND LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY. GIVEN THAT THE NE WIND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST...SEAS OF
4-5 FT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS.
THEREFORE...AN SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 3-4FT N OF THE VA/NC BORDER TONIGHT...WITH 2-3
FT WAVES IN THE BAY...AND 1-2 FT WAVES ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED NEAR OR SLIGHTLY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WIND WILL GENERALLY FLUCTUATE
FROM NE-SE TROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND THEN TREND SOUTHERLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING AOB 10-15KT. SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 2-3 FT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH 1-2 FT WAVES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...ALB/WRS
MARINE...AJZ



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 272001
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
401 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE HIGH BECOMES
CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY...BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A STATIONARY FRNTAL BNDRY OFF THE
CAROLINA CST WITH 1022 MB HI PRES CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. ALOFT...AN UPR-LEVEL TROF IS SITUATED OVER SE CANADA.
INCLUDED A SLGT CHC-CHC OF A SHRA THRU LATE THIS AFTN OVER NE NC
WHERE SOME MOISTURE IS STREAMING OVER THE FRNTAL BNDRY...BUT
NOTHING HEAVY EXPECTED...INCLUDING NO MENTION OF THUNDER. ANY
RAIN WILL END BY THE EVENG HRS AS SFC HI PRES CONTINUES TO BLD IN
FM THE NW. OTWS...EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS TNGT WITH LO TEMPS
RANGING FM NR 60 OVER THE PIEDMONT TO NR 70 NR THE CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF FRI WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERING OVER
THE MID ATLC REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WX WITH A MSTLY SUNNY
SKY AND LO HUMIDITY. TEMPS WILL BE NR NORMAL FOR LATE AUG...WITH
HIGHS AVGG IN THE MID 80S. THE HI SLIDES OFFSHORE FRI NGT INTO SAT
WITH UPR-LEVEL ENERGY STAYING N OF THE FA AND DRY WX CONTINUING.
AFTER ERLY MORNG LOWS RANGING THRU THE 60S...TEMPS WILL MAX OUT IN
THE MID/UPR 80S SAT AFTN. SLGT WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO SUN
WITH HIGHS NR 90 IN MANY SPOTS AS SLY FLOW DEVELOPS. INCLUDED A
SLGT CHC OF A SHRA/TSTM SUN AS SOME MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ALOFT APPROACH FM THE SW. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO WIDESPREAD
ATTM HENCE THE LO POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY BROAD
MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A WEAK TROUGH
IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE SERN US.
WHETHER THIS IS IN THE FORM OF A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE OR SOME
FORM OF TS ERIKA IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. NONETHELESS...THE
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP DEEP MOISTURE SUPPRESSED S OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION. GIVEN THIS...ONLY DIURNAL POPS ARE
FORECAST...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SRN VA/NE NC AND IN THE 20-30%
RANGE. WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID NEXT WEEK WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S...WITH MID 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OCNL BKN CIGS 6-10KFT INVOF FAR SE VA/CSTL NE NC THIS AFTN...WHILE
MNLY SKC ELSW. NNE WNDS CONTG TO SLOLY WANE OVR SRN VA/NE NC THE
NEXT FEW HRS. VFR CONDS XPCD THROUGH TNGT. ANY LINGERING CIGS IN
SE VA/CSTL NE NC AOA 8-10KFT.

SFC HI PRES MOVES ACRS THE NE CONUS FRI KEEPING CONDS VFR W/
ONSHORE E/NE WINDS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL NEAR/JUST
N/E OF THE MDATLC CST THROUGH THE WKND...WITH GENLY DRY/VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING (COULD SEE SOME PATCHY EARLY AM FOG
SAT/SUN).

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES COMBINED WITH WEAK LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS HELPING TO DRIVE A 15-20KT NE
WIND OFF THE COAST OF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS. THIS IS RESULTING
IN SEAS OF 4-5 FT. ELSEWHERE WIND SPEEDS ARE GENERALLY 10-15KT OUT
OF THE N-NE. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THIS
EVENING...BUT THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN SOME TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY NUDGES EWD AND LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY. GIVEN THAT THE NE WIND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST...SEAS OF
4-5 FT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS.
THEREFORE...AN SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 3-4FT N OF THE VA/NC BORDER TONIGHT...WITH 2-3
FT WAVES IN THE BAY...AND 1-2 FT WAVES ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED NEAR OR SLIGHTLY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WIND WILL GENERALLY FLUCTUATE
FROM NE-SE TROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND THEN TREND SOUTHERLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING AOB 10-15KT. SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 2-3 FT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH 1-2 FT WAVES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...ALB/LKB
MARINE...AJZ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 272001
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
401 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE HIGH BECOMES
CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY...BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A STATIONARY FRNTAL BNDRY OFF THE
CAROLINA CST WITH 1022 MB HI PRES CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. ALOFT...AN UPR-LEVEL TROF IS SITUATED OVER SE CANADA.
INCLUDED A SLGT CHC-CHC OF A SHRA THRU LATE THIS AFTN OVER NE NC
WHERE SOME MOISTURE IS STREAMING OVER THE FRNTAL BNDRY...BUT
NOTHING HEAVY EXPECTED...INCLUDING NO MENTION OF THUNDER. ANY
RAIN WILL END BY THE EVENG HRS AS SFC HI PRES CONTINUES TO BLD IN
FM THE NW. OTWS...EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS TNGT WITH LO TEMPS
RANGING FM NR 60 OVER THE PIEDMONT TO NR 70 NR THE CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF FRI WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERING OVER
THE MID ATLC REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WX WITH A MSTLY SUNNY
SKY AND LO HUMIDITY. TEMPS WILL BE NR NORMAL FOR LATE AUG...WITH
HIGHS AVGG IN THE MID 80S. THE HI SLIDES OFFSHORE FRI NGT INTO SAT
WITH UPR-LEVEL ENERGY STAYING N OF THE FA AND DRY WX CONTINUING.
AFTER ERLY MORNG LOWS RANGING THRU THE 60S...TEMPS WILL MAX OUT IN
THE MID/UPR 80S SAT AFTN. SLGT WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO SUN
WITH HIGHS NR 90 IN MANY SPOTS AS SLY FLOW DEVELOPS. INCLUDED A
SLGT CHC OF A SHRA/TSTM SUN AS SOME MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ALOFT APPROACH FM THE SW. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO WIDESPREAD
ATTM HENCE THE LO POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY BROAD
MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A WEAK TROUGH
IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE SERN US.
WHETHER THIS IS IN THE FORM OF A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE OR SOME
FORM OF TS ERIKA IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. NONETHELESS...THE
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP DEEP MOISTURE SUPPRESSED S OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION. GIVEN THIS...ONLY DIURNAL POPS ARE
FORECAST...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SRN VA/NE NC AND IN THE 20-30%
RANGE. WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID NEXT WEEK WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S...WITH MID 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OCNL BKN CIGS 6-10KFT INVOF FAR SE VA/CSTL NE NC THIS AFTN...WHILE
MNLY SKC ELSW. NNE WNDS CONTG TO SLOLY WANE OVR SRN VA/NE NC THE
NEXT FEW HRS. VFR CONDS XPCD THROUGH TNGT. ANY LINGERING CIGS IN
SE VA/CSTL NE NC AOA 8-10KFT.

SFC HI PRES MOVES ACRS THE NE CONUS FRI KEEPING CONDS VFR W/
ONSHORE E/NE WINDS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL NEAR/JUST
N/E OF THE MDATLC CST THROUGH THE WKND...WITH GENLY DRY/VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING (COULD SEE SOME PATCHY EARLY AM FOG
SAT/SUN).

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES COMBINED WITH WEAK LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS HELPING TO DRIVE A 15-20KT NE
WIND OFF THE COAST OF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS. THIS IS RESULTING
IN SEAS OF 4-5 FT. ELSEWHERE WIND SPEEDS ARE GENERALLY 10-15KT OUT
OF THE N-NE. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THIS
EVENING...BUT THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN SOME TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY NUDGES EWD AND LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY. GIVEN THAT THE NE WIND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST...SEAS OF
4-5 FT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS.
THEREFORE...AN SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 3-4FT N OF THE VA/NC BORDER TONIGHT...WITH 2-3
FT WAVES IN THE BAY...AND 1-2 FT WAVES ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED NEAR OR SLIGHTLY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WIND WILL GENERALLY FLUCTUATE
FROM NE-SE TROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND THEN TREND SOUTHERLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING AOB 10-15KT. SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 2-3 FT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH 1-2 FT WAVES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...ALB/LKB
MARINE...AJZ



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 272001
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
401 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE HIGH BECOMES
CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY...BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A STATIONARY FRNTAL BNDRY OFF THE
CAROLINA CST WITH 1022 MB HI PRES CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. ALOFT...AN UPR-LEVEL TROF IS SITUATED OVER SE CANADA.
INCLUDED A SLGT CHC-CHC OF A SHRA THRU LATE THIS AFTN OVER NE NC
WHERE SOME MOISTURE IS STREAMING OVER THE FRNTAL BNDRY...BUT
NOTHING HEAVY EXPECTED...INCLUDING NO MENTION OF THUNDER. ANY
RAIN WILL END BY THE EVENG HRS AS SFC HI PRES CONTINUES TO BLD IN
FM THE NW. OTWS...EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS TNGT WITH LO TEMPS
RANGING FM NR 60 OVER THE PIEDMONT TO NR 70 NR THE CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF FRI WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERING OVER
THE MID ATLC REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WX WITH A MSTLY SUNNY
SKY AND LO HUMIDITY. TEMPS WILL BE NR NORMAL FOR LATE AUG...WITH
HIGHS AVGG IN THE MID 80S. THE HI SLIDES OFFSHORE FRI NGT INTO SAT
WITH UPR-LEVEL ENERGY STAYING N OF THE FA AND DRY WX CONTINUING.
AFTER ERLY MORNG LOWS RANGING THRU THE 60S...TEMPS WILL MAX OUT IN
THE MID/UPR 80S SAT AFTN. SLGT WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO SUN
WITH HIGHS NR 90 IN MANY SPOTS AS SLY FLOW DEVELOPS. INCLUDED A
SLGT CHC OF A SHRA/TSTM SUN AS SOME MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ALOFT APPROACH FM THE SW. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO WIDESPREAD
ATTM HENCE THE LO POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY BROAD
MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A WEAK TROUGH
IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE SERN US.
WHETHER THIS IS IN THE FORM OF A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE OR SOME
FORM OF TS ERIKA IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. NONETHELESS...THE
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP DEEP MOISTURE SUPPRESSED S OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION. GIVEN THIS...ONLY DIURNAL POPS ARE
FORECAST...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SRN VA/NE NC AND IN THE 20-30%
RANGE. WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID NEXT WEEK WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S...WITH MID 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OCNL BKN CIGS 6-10KFT INVOF FAR SE VA/CSTL NE NC THIS AFTN...WHILE
MNLY SKC ELSW. NNE WNDS CONTG TO SLOLY WANE OVR SRN VA/NE NC THE
NEXT FEW HRS. VFR CONDS XPCD THROUGH TNGT. ANY LINGERING CIGS IN
SE VA/CSTL NE NC AOA 8-10KFT.

SFC HI PRES MOVES ACRS THE NE CONUS FRI KEEPING CONDS VFR W/
ONSHORE E/NE WINDS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL NEAR/JUST
N/E OF THE MDATLC CST THROUGH THE WKND...WITH GENLY DRY/VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING (COULD SEE SOME PATCHY EARLY AM FOG
SAT/SUN).

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES COMBINED WITH WEAK LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS HELPING TO DRIVE A 15-20KT NE
WIND OFF THE COAST OF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS. THIS IS RESULTING
IN SEAS OF 4-5 FT. ELSEWHERE WIND SPEEDS ARE GENERALLY 10-15KT OUT
OF THE N-NE. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THIS
EVENING...BUT THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN SOME TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY NUDGES EWD AND LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY. GIVEN THAT THE NE WIND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST...SEAS OF
4-5 FT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS.
THEREFORE...AN SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 3-4FT N OF THE VA/NC BORDER TONIGHT...WITH 2-3
FT WAVES IN THE BAY...AND 1-2 FT WAVES ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED NEAR OR SLIGHTLY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WIND WILL GENERALLY FLUCTUATE
FROM NE-SE TROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND THEN TREND SOUTHERLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING AOB 10-15KT. SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 2-3 FT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH 1-2 FT WAVES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...ALB/LKB
MARINE...AJZ



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 272001
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
401 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE HIGH BECOMES
CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY...BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A STATIONARY FRNTAL BNDRY OFF THE
CAROLINA CST WITH 1022 MB HI PRES CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. ALOFT...AN UPR-LEVEL TROF IS SITUATED OVER SE CANADA.
INCLUDED A SLGT CHC-CHC OF A SHRA THRU LATE THIS AFTN OVER NE NC
WHERE SOME MOISTURE IS STREAMING OVER THE FRNTAL BNDRY...BUT
NOTHING HEAVY EXPECTED...INCLUDING NO MENTION OF THUNDER. ANY
RAIN WILL END BY THE EVENG HRS AS SFC HI PRES CONTINUES TO BLD IN
FM THE NW. OTWS...EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS TNGT WITH LO TEMPS
RANGING FM NR 60 OVER THE PIEDMONT TO NR 70 NR THE CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF FRI WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERING OVER
THE MID ATLC REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WX WITH A MSTLY SUNNY
SKY AND LO HUMIDITY. TEMPS WILL BE NR NORMAL FOR LATE AUG...WITH
HIGHS AVGG IN THE MID 80S. THE HI SLIDES OFFSHORE FRI NGT INTO SAT
WITH UPR-LEVEL ENERGY STAYING N OF THE FA AND DRY WX CONTINUING.
AFTER ERLY MORNG LOWS RANGING THRU THE 60S...TEMPS WILL MAX OUT IN
THE MID/UPR 80S SAT AFTN. SLGT WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO SUN
WITH HIGHS NR 90 IN MANY SPOTS AS SLY FLOW DEVELOPS. INCLUDED A
SLGT CHC OF A SHRA/TSTM SUN AS SOME MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ALOFT APPROACH FM THE SW. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO WIDESPREAD
ATTM HENCE THE LO POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY BROAD
MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A WEAK TROUGH
IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE SERN US.
WHETHER THIS IS IN THE FORM OF A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE OR SOME
FORM OF TS ERIKA IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. NONETHELESS...THE
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP DEEP MOISTURE SUPPRESSED S OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION. GIVEN THIS...ONLY DIURNAL POPS ARE
FORECAST...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SRN VA/NE NC AND IN THE 20-30%
RANGE. WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID NEXT WEEK WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S...WITH MID 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OCNL BKN CIGS 6-10KFT INVOF FAR SE VA/CSTL NE NC THIS AFTN...WHILE
MNLY SKC ELSW. NNE WNDS CONTG TO SLOLY WANE OVR SRN VA/NE NC THE
NEXT FEW HRS. VFR CONDS XPCD THROUGH TNGT. ANY LINGERING CIGS IN
SE VA/CSTL NE NC AOA 8-10KFT.

SFC HI PRES MOVES ACRS THE NE CONUS FRI KEEPING CONDS VFR W/
ONSHORE E/NE WINDS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL NEAR/JUST
N/E OF THE MDATLC CST THROUGH THE WKND...WITH GENLY DRY/VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING (COULD SEE SOME PATCHY EARLY AM FOG
SAT/SUN).

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES COMBINED WITH WEAK LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS HELPING TO DRIVE A 15-20KT NE
WIND OFF THE COAST OF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS. THIS IS RESULTING
IN SEAS OF 4-5 FT. ELSEWHERE WIND SPEEDS ARE GENERALLY 10-15KT OUT
OF THE N-NE. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THIS
EVENING...BUT THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN SOME TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY NUDGES EWD AND LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY. GIVEN THAT THE NE WIND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST...SEAS OF
4-5 FT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS.
THEREFORE...AN SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 3-4FT N OF THE VA/NC BORDER TONIGHT...WITH 2-3
FT WAVES IN THE BAY...AND 1-2 FT WAVES ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED NEAR OR SLIGHTLY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WIND WILL GENERALLY FLUCTUATE
FROM NE-SE TROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND THEN TREND SOUTHERLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING AOB 10-15KT. SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 2-3 FT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH 1-2 FT WAVES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...ALB/LKB
MARINE...AJZ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271955
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
355 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE HIGH BECOMES
CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY...BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A STATIONARY FRNTAL BNDRY OFF THE
CAROLINA CST WITH 1022 MB HI PRES CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. ALOFT...AN UPR-LEVEL TROF IS SITUATED OVER SE CANADA.
INCLUDED A SLGT CHC-CHC OF A SHRA THRU LATE THIS AFTN OVER NE NC
WHERE SOME MOISTURE IS STREAMING OVER THE FRNTAL BNDRY...BUT
NOTHING HEAVY EXPECTED...INCLUDING NO MENTION OF THUNDER. ANY
RAIN WILL END BY THE EVENG HRS AS SFC HI PRES CONTINUES TO BLD IN
FM THE NW. OTWS...EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS TNGT WITH LO TEMPS
RANGING FM NR 60 OVER THE PIEDMONT TO NR 70 NR THE CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF FRI WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERING OVER
THE MID ATLC REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WX WITH A MSTLY SUNNY
SKY AND LO HUMIDITY. TEMPS WILL BE NR NORMAL FOR LATE AUG...WITH
HIGHS AVGG IN THE MID 80S. THE HI SLIDES OFFSHORE FRI NGT INTO SAT
WITH UPR-LEVEL ENERGY STAYING N OF THE FA AND DRY WX CONTINUING.
AFTER ERLY MORNG LOWS RANGING THRU THE 60S...TEMPS WILL MAX OUT IN
THE MID/UPR 80S SAT AFTN. SLGT WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO SUN
WITH HIGHS NR 90 IN MANY SPOTS AS SLY FLOW DEVELOPS. INCLUDED A
SLGT CHC OF A SHRA/TSTM SUN AS SOME MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ALOFT APPROACH FM THE SW. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO WIDESPREAD
ATTM HENCE THE LO POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY BROAD
MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A WEAK TROUGH
IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE SERN US.
WHETHER THIS IS IN THE FORM OF A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE OR SOME
FORM OF TS ERIKA IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. NONETHELESS...THE
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP DEEP MOISTURE SUPPRESSED S OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION. GIVEN THIS...ONLY DIURNAL POPS ARE
FORECAST...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SRN VA/NE NC AND IN THE 20-30%
RANGE. WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID NEXT WEEK WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S...WITH MID 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OCNL BKN CIGS 6-10KFT INVOF FAR SE VA/CSTL NE NC THIS AFTN...WHILE
MNLY SKC ELSW. NNE WNDS CONTG TO SLOLY WANE OVR SRN VA/NE NC THE
NEXT FEW HRS. VFR CONDS XPCD THROUGH TNGT. ANY LINGERING CIGS IN
SE VA/CSTL NE NC AOA 8-10KFT.

SFC HI PRES MOVES ACRS THE NE CONUS FRI KEEPING CONDS VFR W/
ONSHORE E/NE WINDS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL NEAR/JUST
N/E OF THE MDATLC CST THROUGH THE WKND...WITH GENLY DRY/VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING (COULD SEE SOME PATCHY EARLY AM FOG
SAT/SUN).

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES COMBINED WITH WEAK LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS HELPING TO DRIVE A 15-20KT NE
WIND OFF THE COAST OF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS. THIS IS RESULTING
IN SEAS OF 4-5 FT. ELSEWHERE WIND SPEEDS ARE GENERALLY 10-15KT OUT
OF THE N-NE. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THIS
EVENING...BUT THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN SOME TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY NUDGES EWD AND LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY. GIVEN THAT THE NE WIND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST...SEAS OF
4-5 FT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS.
THEREFORE...AN SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 3-4FT N OF THE VA/NC BORDER TONIGHT...WITH 2-3
FT WAVES IN THE BAY...AND 1-2 FT WAVES ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED NEAR OR SLIGHTLY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WIND WILL GENERALLY FLUCTUATE
FROM NE-SE TROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND THEN TREND SOUTHERLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING AOB 10-15KT. SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 2-3 FT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH 1-2 FT WAVES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...ALB/LKB
MARINE...AJZ



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271955
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
355 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE HIGH BECOMES
CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY...BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A STATIONARY FRNTAL BNDRY OFF THE
CAROLINA CST WITH 1022 MB HI PRES CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. ALOFT...AN UPR-LEVEL TROF IS SITUATED OVER SE CANADA.
INCLUDED A SLGT CHC-CHC OF A SHRA THRU LATE THIS AFTN OVER NE NC
WHERE SOME MOISTURE IS STREAMING OVER THE FRNTAL BNDRY...BUT
NOTHING HEAVY EXPECTED...INCLUDING NO MENTION OF THUNDER. ANY
RAIN WILL END BY THE EVENG HRS AS SFC HI PRES CONTINUES TO BLD IN
FM THE NW. OTWS...EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS TNGT WITH LO TEMPS
RANGING FM NR 60 OVER THE PIEDMONT TO NR 70 NR THE CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF FRI WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERING OVER
THE MID ATLC REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WX WITH A MSTLY SUNNY
SKY AND LO HUMIDITY. TEMPS WILL BE NR NORMAL FOR LATE AUG...WITH
HIGHS AVGG IN THE MID 80S. THE HI SLIDES OFFSHORE FRI NGT INTO SAT
WITH UPR-LEVEL ENERGY STAYING N OF THE FA AND DRY WX CONTINUING.
AFTER ERLY MORNG LOWS RANGING THRU THE 60S...TEMPS WILL MAX OUT IN
THE MID/UPR 80S SAT AFTN. SLGT WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO SUN
WITH HIGHS NR 90 IN MANY SPOTS AS SLY FLOW DEVELOPS. INCLUDED A
SLGT CHC OF A SHRA/TSTM SUN AS SOME MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ALOFT APPROACH FM THE SW. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO WIDESPREAD
ATTM HENCE THE LO POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY BROAD
MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A WEAK TROUGH
IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE SERN US.
WHETHER THIS IS IN THE FORM OF A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE OR SOME
FORM OF TS ERIKA IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. NONETHELESS...THE
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP DEEP MOISTURE SUPPRESSED S OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION. GIVEN THIS...ONLY DIURNAL POPS ARE
FORECAST...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SRN VA/NE NC AND IN THE 20-30%
RANGE. WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID NEXT WEEK WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S...WITH MID 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OCNL BKN CIGS 6-10KFT INVOF FAR SE VA/CSTL NE NC THIS AFTN...WHILE
MNLY SKC ELSW. NNE WNDS CONTG TO SLOLY WANE OVR SRN VA/NE NC THE
NEXT FEW HRS. VFR CONDS XPCD THROUGH TNGT. ANY LINGERING CIGS IN
SE VA/CSTL NE NC AOA 8-10KFT.

SFC HI PRES MOVES ACRS THE NE CONUS FRI KEEPING CONDS VFR W/
ONSHORE E/NE WINDS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL NEAR/JUST
N/E OF THE MDATLC CST THROUGH THE WKND...WITH GENLY DRY/VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING (COULD SEE SOME PATCHY EARLY AM FOG
SAT/SUN).

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES COMBINED WITH WEAK LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS HELPING TO DRIVE A 15-20KT NE
WIND OFF THE COAST OF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS. THIS IS RESULTING
IN SEAS OF 4-5 FT. ELSEWHERE WIND SPEEDS ARE GENERALLY 10-15KT OUT
OF THE N-NE. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THIS
EVENING...BUT THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN SOME TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY NUDGES EWD AND LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY. GIVEN THAT THE NE WIND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST...SEAS OF
4-5 FT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS.
THEREFORE...AN SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 3-4FT N OF THE VA/NC BORDER TONIGHT...WITH 2-3
FT WAVES IN THE BAY...AND 1-2 FT WAVES ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED NEAR OR SLIGHTLY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WIND WILL GENERALLY FLUCTUATE
FROM NE-SE TROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND THEN TREND SOUTHERLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING AOB 10-15KT. SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 2-3 FT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH 1-2 FT WAVES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...ALB/LKB
MARINE...AJZ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271955
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
355 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE HIGH BECOMES
CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY...BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A STATIONARY FRNTAL BNDRY OFF THE
CAROLINA CST WITH 1022 MB HI PRES CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. ALOFT...AN UPR-LEVEL TROF IS SITUATED OVER SE CANADA.
INCLUDED A SLGT CHC-CHC OF A SHRA THRU LATE THIS AFTN OVER NE NC
WHERE SOME MOISTURE IS STREAMING OVER THE FRNTAL BNDRY...BUT
NOTHING HEAVY EXPECTED...INCLUDING NO MENTION OF THUNDER. ANY
RAIN WILL END BY THE EVENG HRS AS SFC HI PRES CONTINUES TO BLD IN
FM THE NW. OTWS...EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS TNGT WITH LO TEMPS
RANGING FM NR 60 OVER THE PIEDMONT TO NR 70 NR THE CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF FRI WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERING OVER
THE MID ATLC REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WX WITH A MSTLY SUNNY
SKY AND LO HUMIDITY. TEMPS WILL BE NR NORMAL FOR LATE AUG...WITH
HIGHS AVGG IN THE MID 80S. THE HI SLIDES OFFSHORE FRI NGT INTO SAT
WITH UPR-LEVEL ENERGY STAYING N OF THE FA AND DRY WX CONTINUING.
AFTER ERLY MORNG LOWS RANGING THRU THE 60S...TEMPS WILL MAX OUT IN
THE MID/UPR 80S SAT AFTN. SLGT WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO SUN
WITH HIGHS NR 90 IN MANY SPOTS AS SLY FLOW DEVELOPS. INCLUDED A
SLGT CHC OF A SHRA/TSTM SUN AS SOME MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ALOFT APPROACH FM THE SW. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO WIDESPREAD
ATTM HENCE THE LO POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY BROAD
MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A WEAK TROUGH
IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE SERN US.
WHETHER THIS IS IN THE FORM OF A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE OR SOME
FORM OF TS ERIKA IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. NONETHELESS...THE
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP DEEP MOISTURE SUPPRESSED S OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION. GIVEN THIS...ONLY DIURNAL POPS ARE
FORECAST...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SRN VA/NE NC AND IN THE 20-30%
RANGE. WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID NEXT WEEK WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S...WITH MID 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OCNL BKN CIGS 6-10KFT INVOF FAR SE VA/CSTL NE NC THIS AFTN...WHILE
MNLY SKC ELSW. NNE WNDS CONTG TO SLOLY WANE OVR SRN VA/NE NC THE
NEXT FEW HRS. VFR CONDS XPCD THROUGH TNGT. ANY LINGERING CIGS IN
SE VA/CSTL NE NC AOA 8-10KFT.

SFC HI PRES MOVES ACRS THE NE CONUS FRI KEEPING CONDS VFR W/
ONSHORE E/NE WINDS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL NEAR/JUST
N/E OF THE MDATLC CST THROUGH THE WKND...WITH GENLY DRY/VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING (COULD SEE SOME PATCHY EARLY AM FOG
SAT/SUN).

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES COMBINED WITH WEAK LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS HELPING TO DRIVE A 15-20KT NE
WIND OFF THE COAST OF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS. THIS IS RESULTING
IN SEAS OF 4-5 FT. ELSEWHERE WIND SPEEDS ARE GENERALLY 10-15KT OUT
OF THE N-NE. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THIS
EVENING...BUT THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN SOME TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY NUDGES EWD AND LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY. GIVEN THAT THE NE WIND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST...SEAS OF
4-5 FT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS.
THEREFORE...AN SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 3-4FT N OF THE VA/NC BORDER TONIGHT...WITH 2-3
FT WAVES IN THE BAY...AND 1-2 FT WAVES ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED NEAR OR SLIGHTLY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WIND WILL GENERALLY FLUCTUATE
FROM NE-SE TROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND THEN TREND SOUTHERLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING AOB 10-15KT. SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 2-3 FT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH 1-2 FT WAVES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...ALB/LKB
MARINE...AJZ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271955
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
355 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE HIGH BECOMES
CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY...BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A STATIONARY FRNTAL BNDRY OFF THE
CAROLINA CST WITH 1022 MB HI PRES CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. ALOFT...AN UPR-LEVEL TROF IS SITUATED OVER SE CANADA.
INCLUDED A SLGT CHC-CHC OF A SHRA THRU LATE THIS AFTN OVER NE NC
WHERE SOME MOISTURE IS STREAMING OVER THE FRNTAL BNDRY...BUT
NOTHING HEAVY EXPECTED...INCLUDING NO MENTION OF THUNDER. ANY
RAIN WILL END BY THE EVENG HRS AS SFC HI PRES CONTINUES TO BLD IN
FM THE NW. OTWS...EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS TNGT WITH LO TEMPS
RANGING FM NR 60 OVER THE PIEDMONT TO NR 70 NR THE CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF FRI WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERING OVER
THE MID ATLC REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WX WITH A MSTLY SUNNY
SKY AND LO HUMIDITY. TEMPS WILL BE NR NORMAL FOR LATE AUG...WITH
HIGHS AVGG IN THE MID 80S. THE HI SLIDES OFFSHORE FRI NGT INTO SAT
WITH UPR-LEVEL ENERGY STAYING N OF THE FA AND DRY WX CONTINUING.
AFTER ERLY MORNG LOWS RANGING THRU THE 60S...TEMPS WILL MAX OUT IN
THE MID/UPR 80S SAT AFTN. SLGT WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO SUN
WITH HIGHS NR 90 IN MANY SPOTS AS SLY FLOW DEVELOPS. INCLUDED A
SLGT CHC OF A SHRA/TSTM SUN AS SOME MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ALOFT APPROACH FM THE SW. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO WIDESPREAD
ATTM HENCE THE LO POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY BROAD
MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A WEAK TROUGH
IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE SERN US.
WHETHER THIS IS IN THE FORM OF A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE OR SOME
FORM OF TS ERIKA IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. NONETHELESS...THE
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP DEEP MOISTURE SUPPRESSED S OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION. GIVEN THIS...ONLY DIURNAL POPS ARE
FORECAST...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SRN VA/NE NC AND IN THE 20-30%
RANGE. WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID NEXT WEEK WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S...WITH MID 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OCNL BKN CIGS 6-10KFT INVOF FAR SE VA/CSTL NE NC THIS AFTN...WHILE
MNLY SKC ELSW. NNE WNDS CONTG TO SLOLY WANE OVR SRN VA/NE NC THE
NEXT FEW HRS. VFR CONDS XPCD THROUGH TNGT. ANY LINGERING CIGS IN
SE VA/CSTL NE NC AOA 8-10KFT.

SFC HI PRES MOVES ACRS THE NE CONUS FRI KEEPING CONDS VFR W/
ONSHORE E/NE WINDS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL NEAR/JUST
N/E OF THE MDATLC CST THROUGH THE WKND...WITH GENLY DRY/VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING (COULD SEE SOME PATCHY EARLY AM FOG
SAT/SUN).

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES COMBINED WITH WEAK LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS HELPING TO DRIVE A 15-20KT NE
WIND OFF THE COAST OF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS. THIS IS RESULTING
IN SEAS OF 4-5 FT. ELSEWHERE WIND SPEEDS ARE GENERALLY 10-15KT OUT
OF THE N-NE. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THIS
EVENING...BUT THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN SOME TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY NUDGES EWD AND LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY. GIVEN THAT THE NE WIND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST...SEAS OF
4-5 FT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS.
THEREFORE...AN SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 3-4FT N OF THE VA/NC BORDER TONIGHT...WITH 2-3
FT WAVES IN THE BAY...AND 1-2 FT WAVES ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED NEAR OR SLIGHTLY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WIND WILL GENERALLY FLUCTUATE
FROM NE-SE TROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND THEN TREND SOUTHERLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING AOB 10-15KT. SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 2-3 FT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH 1-2 FT WAVES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...ALB/LKB
MARINE...AJZ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271955
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
355 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE HIGH BECOMES
CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY...BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A STATIONARY FRNTAL BNDRY OFF THE
CAROLINA CST WITH 1022 MB HI PRES CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. ALOFT...AN UPR-LEVEL TROF IS SITUATED OVER SE CANADA.
INCLUDED A SLGT CHC-CHC OF A SHRA THRU LATE THIS AFTN OVER NE NC
WHERE SOME MOISTURE IS STREAMING OVER THE FRNTAL BNDRY...BUT
NOTHING HEAVY EXPECTED...INCLUDING NO MENTION OF THUNDER. ANY
RAIN WILL END BY THE EVENG HRS AS SFC HI PRES CONTINUES TO BLD IN
FM THE NW. OTWS...EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS TNGT WITH LO TEMPS
RANGING FM NR 60 OVER THE PIEDMONT TO NR 70 NR THE CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF FRI WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERING OVER
THE MID ATLC REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WX WITH A MSTLY SUNNY
SKY AND LO HUMIDITY. TEMPS WILL BE NR NORMAL FOR LATE AUG...WITH
HIGHS AVGG IN THE MID 80S. THE HI SLIDES OFFSHORE FRI NGT INTO SAT
WITH UPR-LEVEL ENERGY STAYING N OF THE FA AND DRY WX CONTINUING.
AFTER ERLY MORNG LOWS RANGING THRU THE 60S...TEMPS WILL MAX OUT IN
THE MID/UPR 80S SAT AFTN. SLGT WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO SUN
WITH HIGHS NR 90 IN MANY SPOTS AS SLY FLOW DEVELOPS. INCLUDED A
SLGT CHC OF A SHRA/TSTM SUN AS SOME MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ALOFT APPROACH FM THE SW. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO WIDESPREAD
ATTM HENCE THE LO POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY BROAD
MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A WEAK TROUGH
IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE SERN US.
WHETHER THIS IS IN THE FORM OF A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE OR SOME
FORM OF TS ERIKA IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. NONETHELESS...THE
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP DEEP MOISTURE SUPPRESSED S OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION. GIVEN THIS...ONLY DIURNAL POPS ARE
FORECAST...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SRN VA/NE NC AND IN THE 20-30%
RANGE. WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID NEXT WEEK WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S...WITH MID 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OCNL BKN CIGS 6-10KFT INVOF FAR SE VA/CSTL NE NC THIS AFTN...WHILE
MNLY SKC ELSW. NNE WNDS CONTG TO SLOLY WANE OVR SRN VA/NE NC THE
NEXT FEW HRS. VFR CONDS XPCD THROUGH TNGT. ANY LINGERING CIGS IN
SE VA/CSTL NE NC AOA 8-10KFT.

SFC HI PRES MOVES ACRS THE NE CONUS FRI KEEPING CONDS VFR W/
ONSHORE E/NE WINDS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL NEAR/JUST
N/E OF THE MDATLC CST THROUGH THE WKND...WITH GENLY DRY/VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING (COULD SEE SOME PATCHY EARLY AM FOG
SAT/SUN).

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES COMBINED WITH WEAK LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS HELPING TO DRIVE A 15-20KT NE
WIND OFF THE COAST OF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS. THIS IS RESULTING
IN SEAS OF 4-5 FT. ELSEWHERE WIND SPEEDS ARE GENERALLY 10-15KT OUT
OF THE N-NE. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THIS
EVENING...BUT THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN SOME TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY NUDGES EWD AND LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY. GIVEN THAT THE NE WIND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST...SEAS OF
4-5 FT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS.
THEREFORE...AN SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 3-4FT N OF THE VA/NC BORDER TONIGHT...WITH 2-3
FT WAVES IN THE BAY...AND 1-2 FT WAVES ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED NEAR OR SLIGHTLY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WIND WILL GENERALLY FLUCTUATE
FROM NE-SE TROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND THEN TREND SOUTHERLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING AOB 10-15KT. SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 2-3 FT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH 1-2 FT WAVES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...ALB/LKB
MARINE...AJZ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271955
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
355 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE HIGH BECOMES
CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY...BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A STATIONARY FRNTAL BNDRY OFF THE
CAROLINA CST WITH 1022 MB HI PRES CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. ALOFT...AN UPR-LEVEL TROF IS SITUATED OVER SE CANADA.
INCLUDED A SLGT CHC-CHC OF A SHRA THRU LATE THIS AFTN OVER NE NC
WHERE SOME MOISTURE IS STREAMING OVER THE FRNTAL BNDRY...BUT
NOTHING HEAVY EXPECTED...INCLUDING NO MENTION OF THUNDER. ANY
RAIN WILL END BY THE EVENG HRS AS SFC HI PRES CONTINUES TO BLD IN
FM THE NW. OTWS...EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS TNGT WITH LO TEMPS
RANGING FM NR 60 OVER THE PIEDMONT TO NR 70 NR THE CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF FRI WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERING OVER
THE MID ATLC REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WX WITH A MSTLY SUNNY
SKY AND LO HUMIDITY. TEMPS WILL BE NR NORMAL FOR LATE AUG...WITH
HIGHS AVGG IN THE MID 80S. THE HI SLIDES OFFSHORE FRI NGT INTO SAT
WITH UPR-LEVEL ENERGY STAYING N OF THE FA AND DRY WX CONTINUING.
AFTER ERLY MORNG LOWS RANGING THRU THE 60S...TEMPS WILL MAX OUT IN
THE MID/UPR 80S SAT AFTN. SLGT WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO SUN
WITH HIGHS NR 90 IN MANY SPOTS AS SLY FLOW DEVELOPS. INCLUDED A
SLGT CHC OF A SHRA/TSTM SUN AS SOME MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ALOFT APPROACH FM THE SW. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO WIDESPREAD
ATTM HENCE THE LO POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY BROAD
MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A WEAK TROUGH
IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE SERN US.
WHETHER THIS IS IN THE FORM OF A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE OR SOME
FORM OF TS ERIKA IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. NONETHELESS...THE
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP DEEP MOISTURE SUPPRESSED S OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION. GIVEN THIS...ONLY DIURNAL POPS ARE
FORECAST...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SRN VA/NE NC AND IN THE 20-30%
RANGE. WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID NEXT WEEK WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S...WITH MID 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OCNL BKN CIGS 6-10KFT INVOF FAR SE VA/CSTL NE NC THIS AFTN...WHILE
MNLY SKC ELSW. NNE WNDS CONTG TO SLOLY WANE OVR SRN VA/NE NC THE
NEXT FEW HRS. VFR CONDS XPCD THROUGH TNGT. ANY LINGERING CIGS IN
SE VA/CSTL NE NC AOA 8-10KFT.

SFC HI PRES MOVES ACRS THE NE CONUS FRI KEEPING CONDS VFR W/
ONSHORE E/NE WINDS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL NEAR/JUST
N/E OF THE MDATLC CST THROUGH THE WKND...WITH GENLY DRY/VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING (COULD SEE SOME PATCHY EARLY AM FOG
SAT/SUN).

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES COMBINED WITH WEAK LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS HELPING TO DRIVE A 15-20KT NE
WIND OFF THE COAST OF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS. THIS IS RESULTING
IN SEAS OF 4-5 FT. ELSEWHERE WIND SPEEDS ARE GENERALLY 10-15KT OUT
OF THE N-NE. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THIS
EVENING...BUT THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN SOME TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY NUDGES EWD AND LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY. GIVEN THAT THE NE WIND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST...SEAS OF
4-5 FT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS.
THEREFORE...AN SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 3-4FT N OF THE VA/NC BORDER TONIGHT...WITH 2-3
FT WAVES IN THE BAY...AND 1-2 FT WAVES ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED NEAR OR SLIGHTLY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WIND WILL GENERALLY FLUCTUATE
FROM NE-SE TROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND THEN TREND SOUTHERLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING AOB 10-15KT. SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 2-3 FT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH 1-2 FT WAVES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...ALB/LKB
MARINE...AJZ




000
FXUS61 KRNK 271903
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
303 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AND REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA INTO SATURDAY. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE NORTH ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS...MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE RESULTING IN
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...

WITH NO MAJOR SYNOPTIC CHANGES WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE RELATIVELY QUIET
WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
SLIDING BY TO OUR NORTH AND GIVING US LIGHT ELY/NELY WINDS...WHILE A
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FEATURING WEAK TROFING ALOFT WILL KEEP SOME SHORT
WAVE ENERGY FLOWING THROUGH THE REGION. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A
FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CU FIELD ACROSS THE REGION BUT AS OF EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON RADAR DOES NOT INDICATE ANY SHOWERS. HOWEVER...BELIEVE THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH OROGRAPHIC FORCING ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO
GENERATE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO. WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE FAR WEST WITH ANY SHOWERS DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET.
OVERNIGHT SHOULD SEE SOME FOG FORMATION AGAIN MAINLY IN THE VALLEYS
WEST OF THE RIDGE. FRIDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO
WHAT WE HAVE TODAY WITH ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON SHOWER
WEST OF THE RIDGE.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WITH LOWS AROUND 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT TO THE LOW/MID 50S WEST OF THE
RIDGE...AND HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S EAST TO GENERALLY MIDDLE 70S WEST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT THURSDAY...

RIDGING BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN DOMINANT TO START THE
WEEKEND WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY STAYING TO THE SOUTH/WEST
OF THE REGION INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THIS SEEN IN THE LATEST MODELS
INCLUDING FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT SHOW A MUCH DRIER COLUMN ALOFT THAN
SEEN FROM YESTERDAY. THEREFORE KEPT POPS OUT FRIDAY NIGHT AND CUT BACK
TO MORE ISOLATED MOUNTAIN COVERAGE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES WEST.

UPPER TROUGH SLIDING IN FROM THE NW BY SUNDAY WILL CAUSE HEIGHTS TO
LOWER WHILE IN TURN SCOOPING UP A WEAK SHORTWAVE FROM THE SOUTH ALONG
AN AXIS OF HIGHER PWATS. THIS WAVE ALONG WITH SOME UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO
THEN SLIDE NORTH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING A
DECENT AMOUNT OF WEAK LIFT DESPITE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.
AGAIN THINK ENOUGH TO BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS IN FROM THE SOUTH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERHAPS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ESPECIALLY
WESTERN HALF SUNDAY. COULD EVENTUALLY GO TO LOW LIKELY POPS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BUT GIVEN TREND OF MOISTURE/UVV SLIDING FARTHER WEST WILL
HOLD WITH HIGHER CHANCE POPS...EXCEPT MAINLY SLIGHT POPS PIEDMONT.

LITTLE CHANGE TO GOING TEMPS EXCEPT TO GO A BIT COOLER WEST UNDER MORE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS SUNDAY...OTHERWISE CLEAR/PC WITH HIGHS LOW/MID 80S AND
LOWS 58-65.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT THURSDAY...

WEAKNESS ALOFT SPLITTING THROUGH THE UPPER EASTERN RIDGE WILL BE ALONG
THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT PRIOR TO PINCHING OFF ALLOWING A WEAK
UPPER LOW TO SHIFT TO THE SW BEFORE HEIGHTS REBUILD EARLY NEXT WEEK
NORTH OF ERIKA. THIS COMBINED WITH A PIECE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
SLIDING UP FROM THE SOUTH...AND HIGHER PWATS SUPPORTS BETTER CHANCES OF
CONVECTION SUNDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE MOUNTAIN CHAIN. HOWEVER GIVEN WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IN PLACE...WONT
GO MUCH HIGHER THAN MEDIUM CHANCES WEST INTO MONDAY AND KEEP MOSTLY
ISOLATED FAR EAST. PASSING OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD ALLOW RIDGING ALOFT
TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST...AND ENHANCED BY LIKELY
SUBSIDENCE TO THE NORTH OF ERIKA OFF THE FLORIDA/SE COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THUS EXPECTING A GRADUAL DECREASE IN POPS STARTING TUESDAY
WITH PERHAPS ONLY ISOLATED MOUNTAIN COVERAGE AT BEST BY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. HOWEVER PENDING TRACK OF ERIKA COULD SEE ENOUGH MOISTURE
PUSHED INTO THE PIEDMONT WITHIN THE EASTERLY FETCH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST ON DAY7 SO KEPT MAINLY ISOLATED POPS
IN SPOTS. OTHERWISE MORE CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THEN PC TO
MOSTLY SUNNY AND MOSTLY CLEAR AT NIGHT INTO MIDWEEK FOR NOW.

TEMPS BASICALLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS EXCEPT FOR
INCREASING MOISTURE. THUS RUNNING WITH MAINLY LOW 80S WEST TO MID/UPPER
80S EAST...WITH OVERALL LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S...CLOSER TO THE WARMER
EC MOS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT THURSDAY...

A RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WITH SUBTLE FEATURES TO CONTEND WITH
THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING BY TO
OUR NORTH AND GIVING US LIGHT ELY/NELY WINDS...WHILE A PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN FEATURING WEAK TROFING ALOFT WILL KEEP SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY
FLOWING THROUGH THE REGION. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OROGRAPHIC
FORCING ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO GENERATE A MOSTLY VFR
CEILING...BUT BELIEVE ANY SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED AND NOT MERIT A
MENTION IN TAFS AT KLWB/KBLF/KBCB. EXPECT SITES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
TO BE DRY WITH SCT/V/BKN VFR CLOUDS.

TONIGHT SHOULD BE ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. THIS SHOULD GENERATE LIFR CONDITIONS AT KLWB WITH THIN FOG AND
SCT STRATUS FOR KBLF/KBCB. THERE MAY BE SOME THIN FOG ALSO AT KLYH AND
KDAN BUT BELIEVE PROBABILITY IS LOW ENOUGH AVOID USING A TEMPO GROUP
TOWARD DAYBREAK SO WILL NOT INDICATE ANY OBVIS. ANY FOG/STRATUS WILL
DISSIPATE AFTER DAYBREAK AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MAINLY SCT CLOUDS
THEREAFTER.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

EXPECT A MAINLY VFR FORECAST INTO SUNDAY. MOISTURE GRADUALLY
INCREASES BY THE WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE.
TYPICAL LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING MVFR TO LIFR FOG THREAT AT
LWB/BCB/LYH THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...AMS/MBS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 271903
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
303 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AND REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA INTO SATURDAY. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE NORTH ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS...MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE RESULTING IN
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...

WITH NO MAJOR SYNOPTIC CHANGES WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE RELATIVELY QUIET
WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
SLIDING BY TO OUR NORTH AND GIVING US LIGHT ELY/NELY WINDS...WHILE A
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FEATURING WEAK TROFING ALOFT WILL KEEP SOME SHORT
WAVE ENERGY FLOWING THROUGH THE REGION. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A
FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CU FIELD ACROSS THE REGION BUT AS OF EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON RADAR DOES NOT INDICATE ANY SHOWERS. HOWEVER...BELIEVE THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH OROGRAPHIC FORCING ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO
GENERATE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO. WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE FAR WEST WITH ANY SHOWERS DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET.
OVERNIGHT SHOULD SEE SOME FOG FORMATION AGAIN MAINLY IN THE VALLEYS
WEST OF THE RIDGE. FRIDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO
WHAT WE HAVE TODAY WITH ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON SHOWER
WEST OF THE RIDGE.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WITH LOWS AROUND 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT TO THE LOW/MID 50S WEST OF THE
RIDGE...AND HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S EAST TO GENERALLY MIDDLE 70S WEST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT THURSDAY...

RIDGING BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN DOMINANT TO START THE
WEEKEND WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY STAYING TO THE SOUTH/WEST
OF THE REGION INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THIS SEEN IN THE LATEST MODELS
INCLUDING FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT SHOW A MUCH DRIER COLUMN ALOFT THAN
SEEN FROM YESTERDAY. THEREFORE KEPT POPS OUT FRIDAY NIGHT AND CUT BACK
TO MORE ISOLATED MOUNTAIN COVERAGE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES WEST.

UPPER TROUGH SLIDING IN FROM THE NW BY SUNDAY WILL CAUSE HEIGHTS TO
LOWER WHILE IN TURN SCOOPING UP A WEAK SHORTWAVE FROM THE SOUTH ALONG
AN AXIS OF HIGHER PWATS. THIS WAVE ALONG WITH SOME UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO
THEN SLIDE NORTH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING A
DECENT AMOUNT OF WEAK LIFT DESPITE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.
AGAIN THINK ENOUGH TO BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS IN FROM THE SOUTH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERHAPS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ESPECIALLY
WESTERN HALF SUNDAY. COULD EVENTUALLY GO TO LOW LIKELY POPS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BUT GIVEN TREND OF MOISTURE/UVV SLIDING FARTHER WEST WILL
HOLD WITH HIGHER CHANCE POPS...EXCEPT MAINLY SLIGHT POPS PIEDMONT.

LITTLE CHANGE TO GOING TEMPS EXCEPT TO GO A BIT COOLER WEST UNDER MORE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS SUNDAY...OTHERWISE CLEAR/PC WITH HIGHS LOW/MID 80S AND
LOWS 58-65.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT THURSDAY...

WEAKNESS ALOFT SPLITTING THROUGH THE UPPER EASTERN RIDGE WILL BE ALONG
THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT PRIOR TO PINCHING OFF ALLOWING A WEAK
UPPER LOW TO SHIFT TO THE SW BEFORE HEIGHTS REBUILD EARLY NEXT WEEK
NORTH OF ERIKA. THIS COMBINED WITH A PIECE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
SLIDING UP FROM THE SOUTH...AND HIGHER PWATS SUPPORTS BETTER CHANCES OF
CONVECTION SUNDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE MOUNTAIN CHAIN. HOWEVER GIVEN WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IN PLACE...WONT
GO MUCH HIGHER THAN MEDIUM CHANCES WEST INTO MONDAY AND KEEP MOSTLY
ISOLATED FAR EAST. PASSING OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD ALLOW RIDGING ALOFT
TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST...AND ENHANCED BY LIKELY
SUBSIDENCE TO THE NORTH OF ERIKA OFF THE FLORIDA/SE COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THUS EXPECTING A GRADUAL DECREASE IN POPS STARTING TUESDAY
WITH PERHAPS ONLY ISOLATED MOUNTAIN COVERAGE AT BEST BY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. HOWEVER PENDING TRACK OF ERIKA COULD SEE ENOUGH MOISTURE
PUSHED INTO THE PIEDMONT WITHIN THE EASTERLY FETCH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST ON DAY7 SO KEPT MAINLY ISOLATED POPS
IN SPOTS. OTHERWISE MORE CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THEN PC TO
MOSTLY SUNNY AND MOSTLY CLEAR AT NIGHT INTO MIDWEEK FOR NOW.

TEMPS BASICALLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS EXCEPT FOR
INCREASING MOISTURE. THUS RUNNING WITH MAINLY LOW 80S WEST TO MID/UPPER
80S EAST...WITH OVERALL LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S...CLOSER TO THE WARMER
EC MOS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT THURSDAY...

A RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WITH SUBTLE FEATURES TO CONTEND WITH
THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING BY TO
OUR NORTH AND GIVING US LIGHT ELY/NELY WINDS...WHILE A PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN FEATURING WEAK TROFING ALOFT WILL KEEP SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY
FLOWING THROUGH THE REGION. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OROGRAPHIC
FORCING ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO GENERATE A MOSTLY VFR
CEILING...BUT BELIEVE ANY SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED AND NOT MERIT A
MENTION IN TAFS AT KLWB/KBLF/KBCB. EXPECT SITES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
TO BE DRY WITH SCT/V/BKN VFR CLOUDS.

TONIGHT SHOULD BE ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. THIS SHOULD GENERATE LIFR CONDITIONS AT KLWB WITH THIN FOG AND
SCT STRATUS FOR KBLF/KBCB. THERE MAY BE SOME THIN FOG ALSO AT KLYH AND
KDAN BUT BELIEVE PROBABILITY IS LOW ENOUGH AVOID USING A TEMPO GROUP
TOWARD DAYBREAK SO WILL NOT INDICATE ANY OBVIS. ANY FOG/STRATUS WILL
DISSIPATE AFTER DAYBREAK AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MAINLY SCT CLOUDS
THEREAFTER.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

EXPECT A MAINLY VFR FORECAST INTO SUNDAY. MOISTURE GRADUALLY
INCREASES BY THE WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE.
TYPICAL LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING MVFR TO LIFR FOG THREAT AT
LWB/BCB/LYH THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...AMS/MBS



000
FXUS61 KRNK 271903
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
303 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AND REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA INTO SATURDAY. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE NORTH ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS...MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE RESULTING IN
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...

WITH NO MAJOR SYNOPTIC CHANGES WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE RELATIVELY QUIET
WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
SLIDING BY TO OUR NORTH AND GIVING US LIGHT ELY/NELY WINDS...WHILE A
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FEATURING WEAK TROFING ALOFT WILL KEEP SOME SHORT
WAVE ENERGY FLOWING THROUGH THE REGION. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A
FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CU FIELD ACROSS THE REGION BUT AS OF EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON RADAR DOES NOT INDICATE ANY SHOWERS. HOWEVER...BELIEVE THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH OROGRAPHIC FORCING ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO
GENERATE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO. WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE FAR WEST WITH ANY SHOWERS DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET.
OVERNIGHT SHOULD SEE SOME FOG FORMATION AGAIN MAINLY IN THE VALLEYS
WEST OF THE RIDGE. FRIDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO
WHAT WE HAVE TODAY WITH ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON SHOWER
WEST OF THE RIDGE.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WITH LOWS AROUND 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT TO THE LOW/MID 50S WEST OF THE
RIDGE...AND HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S EAST TO GENERALLY MIDDLE 70S WEST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT THURSDAY...

RIDGING BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN DOMINANT TO START THE
WEEKEND WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY STAYING TO THE SOUTH/WEST
OF THE REGION INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THIS SEEN IN THE LATEST MODELS
INCLUDING FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT SHOW A MUCH DRIER COLUMN ALOFT THAN
SEEN FROM YESTERDAY. THEREFORE KEPT POPS OUT FRIDAY NIGHT AND CUT BACK
TO MORE ISOLATED MOUNTAIN COVERAGE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES WEST.

UPPER TROUGH SLIDING IN FROM THE NW BY SUNDAY WILL CAUSE HEIGHTS TO
LOWER WHILE IN TURN SCOOPING UP A WEAK SHORTWAVE FROM THE SOUTH ALONG
AN AXIS OF HIGHER PWATS. THIS WAVE ALONG WITH SOME UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO
THEN SLIDE NORTH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING A
DECENT AMOUNT OF WEAK LIFT DESPITE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.
AGAIN THINK ENOUGH TO BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS IN FROM THE SOUTH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERHAPS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ESPECIALLY
WESTERN HALF SUNDAY. COULD EVENTUALLY GO TO LOW LIKELY POPS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BUT GIVEN TREND OF MOISTURE/UVV SLIDING FARTHER WEST WILL
HOLD WITH HIGHER CHANCE POPS...EXCEPT MAINLY SLIGHT POPS PIEDMONT.

LITTLE CHANGE TO GOING TEMPS EXCEPT TO GO A BIT COOLER WEST UNDER MORE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS SUNDAY...OTHERWISE CLEAR/PC WITH HIGHS LOW/MID 80S AND
LOWS 58-65.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT THURSDAY...

WEAKNESS ALOFT SPLITTING THROUGH THE UPPER EASTERN RIDGE WILL BE ALONG
THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT PRIOR TO PINCHING OFF ALLOWING A WEAK
UPPER LOW TO SHIFT TO THE SW BEFORE HEIGHTS REBUILD EARLY NEXT WEEK
NORTH OF ERIKA. THIS COMBINED WITH A PIECE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
SLIDING UP FROM THE SOUTH...AND HIGHER PWATS SUPPORTS BETTER CHANCES OF
CONVECTION SUNDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE MOUNTAIN CHAIN. HOWEVER GIVEN WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IN PLACE...WONT
GO MUCH HIGHER THAN MEDIUM CHANCES WEST INTO MONDAY AND KEEP MOSTLY
ISOLATED FAR EAST. PASSING OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD ALLOW RIDGING ALOFT
TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST...AND ENHANCED BY LIKELY
SUBSIDENCE TO THE NORTH OF ERIKA OFF THE FLORIDA/SE COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THUS EXPECTING A GRADUAL DECREASE IN POPS STARTING TUESDAY
WITH PERHAPS ONLY ISOLATED MOUNTAIN COVERAGE AT BEST BY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. HOWEVER PENDING TRACK OF ERIKA COULD SEE ENOUGH MOISTURE
PUSHED INTO THE PIEDMONT WITHIN THE EASTERLY FETCH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST ON DAY7 SO KEPT MAINLY ISOLATED POPS
IN SPOTS. OTHERWISE MORE CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THEN PC TO
MOSTLY SUNNY AND MOSTLY CLEAR AT NIGHT INTO MIDWEEK FOR NOW.

TEMPS BASICALLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS EXCEPT FOR
INCREASING MOISTURE. THUS RUNNING WITH MAINLY LOW 80S WEST TO MID/UPPER
80S EAST...WITH OVERALL LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S...CLOSER TO THE WARMER
EC MOS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT THURSDAY...

A RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WITH SUBTLE FEATURES TO CONTEND WITH
THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING BY TO
OUR NORTH AND GIVING US LIGHT ELY/NELY WINDS...WHILE A PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN FEATURING WEAK TROFING ALOFT WILL KEEP SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY
FLOWING THROUGH THE REGION. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OROGRAPHIC
FORCING ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO GENERATE A MOSTLY VFR
CEILING...BUT BELIEVE ANY SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED AND NOT MERIT A
MENTION IN TAFS AT KLWB/KBLF/KBCB. EXPECT SITES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
TO BE DRY WITH SCT/V/BKN VFR CLOUDS.

TONIGHT SHOULD BE ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. THIS SHOULD GENERATE LIFR CONDITIONS AT KLWB WITH THIN FOG AND
SCT STRATUS FOR KBLF/KBCB. THERE MAY BE SOME THIN FOG ALSO AT KLYH AND
KDAN BUT BELIEVE PROBABILITY IS LOW ENOUGH AVOID USING A TEMPO GROUP
TOWARD DAYBREAK SO WILL NOT INDICATE ANY OBVIS. ANY FOG/STRATUS WILL
DISSIPATE AFTER DAYBREAK AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MAINLY SCT CLOUDS
THEREAFTER.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

EXPECT A MAINLY VFR FORECAST INTO SUNDAY. MOISTURE GRADUALLY
INCREASES BY THE WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE.
TYPICAL LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING MVFR TO LIFR FOG THREAT AT
LWB/BCB/LYH THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...AMS/MBS



000
FXUS61 KRNK 271903
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
303 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AND REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA INTO SATURDAY. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE NORTH ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS...MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE RESULTING IN
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...

WITH NO MAJOR SYNOPTIC CHANGES WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE RELATIVELY QUIET
WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
SLIDING BY TO OUR NORTH AND GIVING US LIGHT ELY/NELY WINDS...WHILE A
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FEATURING WEAK TROFING ALOFT WILL KEEP SOME SHORT
WAVE ENERGY FLOWING THROUGH THE REGION. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A
FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CU FIELD ACROSS THE REGION BUT AS OF EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON RADAR DOES NOT INDICATE ANY SHOWERS. HOWEVER...BELIEVE THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH OROGRAPHIC FORCING ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO
GENERATE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO. WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE FAR WEST WITH ANY SHOWERS DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET.
OVERNIGHT SHOULD SEE SOME FOG FORMATION AGAIN MAINLY IN THE VALLEYS
WEST OF THE RIDGE. FRIDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO
WHAT WE HAVE TODAY WITH ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON SHOWER
WEST OF THE RIDGE.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WITH LOWS AROUND 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT TO THE LOW/MID 50S WEST OF THE
RIDGE...AND HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S EAST TO GENERALLY MIDDLE 70S WEST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT THURSDAY...

RIDGING BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN DOMINANT TO START THE
WEEKEND WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY STAYING TO THE SOUTH/WEST
OF THE REGION INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THIS SEEN IN THE LATEST MODELS
INCLUDING FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT SHOW A MUCH DRIER COLUMN ALOFT THAN
SEEN FROM YESTERDAY. THEREFORE KEPT POPS OUT FRIDAY NIGHT AND CUT BACK
TO MORE ISOLATED MOUNTAIN COVERAGE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES WEST.

UPPER TROUGH SLIDING IN FROM THE NW BY SUNDAY WILL CAUSE HEIGHTS TO
LOWER WHILE IN TURN SCOOPING UP A WEAK SHORTWAVE FROM THE SOUTH ALONG
AN AXIS OF HIGHER PWATS. THIS WAVE ALONG WITH SOME UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO
THEN SLIDE NORTH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING A
DECENT AMOUNT OF WEAK LIFT DESPITE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.
AGAIN THINK ENOUGH TO BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS IN FROM THE SOUTH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERHAPS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ESPECIALLY
WESTERN HALF SUNDAY. COULD EVENTUALLY GO TO LOW LIKELY POPS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BUT GIVEN TREND OF MOISTURE/UVV SLIDING FARTHER WEST WILL
HOLD WITH HIGHER CHANCE POPS...EXCEPT MAINLY SLIGHT POPS PIEDMONT.

LITTLE CHANGE TO GOING TEMPS EXCEPT TO GO A BIT COOLER WEST UNDER MORE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS SUNDAY...OTHERWISE CLEAR/PC WITH HIGHS LOW/MID 80S AND
LOWS 58-65.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT THURSDAY...

WEAKNESS ALOFT SPLITTING THROUGH THE UPPER EASTERN RIDGE WILL BE ALONG
THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT PRIOR TO PINCHING OFF ALLOWING A WEAK
UPPER LOW TO SHIFT TO THE SW BEFORE HEIGHTS REBUILD EARLY NEXT WEEK
NORTH OF ERIKA. THIS COMBINED WITH A PIECE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
SLIDING UP FROM THE SOUTH...AND HIGHER PWATS SUPPORTS BETTER CHANCES OF
CONVECTION SUNDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE MOUNTAIN CHAIN. HOWEVER GIVEN WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IN PLACE...WONT
GO MUCH HIGHER THAN MEDIUM CHANCES WEST INTO MONDAY AND KEEP MOSTLY
ISOLATED FAR EAST. PASSING OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD ALLOW RIDGING ALOFT
TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST...AND ENHANCED BY LIKELY
SUBSIDENCE TO THE NORTH OF ERIKA OFF THE FLORIDA/SE COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THUS EXPECTING A GRADUAL DECREASE IN POPS STARTING TUESDAY
WITH PERHAPS ONLY ISOLATED MOUNTAIN COVERAGE AT BEST BY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. HOWEVER PENDING TRACK OF ERIKA COULD SEE ENOUGH MOISTURE
PUSHED INTO THE PIEDMONT WITHIN THE EASTERLY FETCH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST ON DAY7 SO KEPT MAINLY ISOLATED POPS
IN SPOTS. OTHERWISE MORE CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THEN PC TO
MOSTLY SUNNY AND MOSTLY CLEAR AT NIGHT INTO MIDWEEK FOR NOW.

TEMPS BASICALLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS EXCEPT FOR
INCREASING MOISTURE. THUS RUNNING WITH MAINLY LOW 80S WEST TO MID/UPPER
80S EAST...WITH OVERALL LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S...CLOSER TO THE WARMER
EC MOS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT THURSDAY...

A RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WITH SUBTLE FEATURES TO CONTEND WITH
THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING BY TO
OUR NORTH AND GIVING US LIGHT ELY/NELY WINDS...WHILE A PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN FEATURING WEAK TROFING ALOFT WILL KEEP SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY
FLOWING THROUGH THE REGION. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OROGRAPHIC
FORCING ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO GENERATE A MOSTLY VFR
CEILING...BUT BELIEVE ANY SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED AND NOT MERIT A
MENTION IN TAFS AT KLWB/KBLF/KBCB. EXPECT SITES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
TO BE DRY WITH SCT/V/BKN VFR CLOUDS.

TONIGHT SHOULD BE ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. THIS SHOULD GENERATE LIFR CONDITIONS AT KLWB WITH THIN FOG AND
SCT STRATUS FOR KBLF/KBCB. THERE MAY BE SOME THIN FOG ALSO AT KLYH AND
KDAN BUT BELIEVE PROBABILITY IS LOW ENOUGH AVOID USING A TEMPO GROUP
TOWARD DAYBREAK SO WILL NOT INDICATE ANY OBVIS. ANY FOG/STRATUS WILL
DISSIPATE AFTER DAYBREAK AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MAINLY SCT CLOUDS
THEREAFTER.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

EXPECT A MAINLY VFR FORECAST INTO SUNDAY. MOISTURE GRADUALLY
INCREASES BY THE WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE.
TYPICAL LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING MVFR TO LIFR FOG THREAT AT
LWB/BCB/LYH THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...AMS/MBS



000
FXUS61 KRNK 271903
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
303 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AND REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA INTO SATURDAY. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE NORTH ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS...MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE RESULTING IN
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...

WITH NO MAJOR SYNOPTIC CHANGES WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE RELATIVELY QUIET
WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
SLIDING BY TO OUR NORTH AND GIVING US LIGHT ELY/NELY WINDS...WHILE A
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FEATURING WEAK TROFING ALOFT WILL KEEP SOME SHORT
WAVE ENERGY FLOWING THROUGH THE REGION. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A
FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CU FIELD ACROSS THE REGION BUT AS OF EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON RADAR DOES NOT INDICATE ANY SHOWERS. HOWEVER...BELIEVE THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH OROGRAPHIC FORCING ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO
GENERATE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO. WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE FAR WEST WITH ANY SHOWERS DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET.
OVERNIGHT SHOULD SEE SOME FOG FORMATION AGAIN MAINLY IN THE VALLEYS
WEST OF THE RIDGE. FRIDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO
WHAT WE HAVE TODAY WITH ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON SHOWER
WEST OF THE RIDGE.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WITH LOWS AROUND 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT TO THE LOW/MID 50S WEST OF THE
RIDGE...AND HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S EAST TO GENERALLY MIDDLE 70S WEST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT THURSDAY...

RIDGING BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN DOMINANT TO START THE
WEEKEND WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY STAYING TO THE SOUTH/WEST
OF THE REGION INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THIS SEEN IN THE LATEST MODELS
INCLUDING FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT SHOW A MUCH DRIER COLUMN ALOFT THAN
SEEN FROM YESTERDAY. THEREFORE KEPT POPS OUT FRIDAY NIGHT AND CUT BACK
TO MORE ISOLATED MOUNTAIN COVERAGE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES WEST.

UPPER TROUGH SLIDING IN FROM THE NW BY SUNDAY WILL CAUSE HEIGHTS TO
LOWER WHILE IN TURN SCOOPING UP A WEAK SHORTWAVE FROM THE SOUTH ALONG
AN AXIS OF HIGHER PWATS. THIS WAVE ALONG WITH SOME UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO
THEN SLIDE NORTH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING A
DECENT AMOUNT OF WEAK LIFT DESPITE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.
AGAIN THINK ENOUGH TO BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS IN FROM THE SOUTH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERHAPS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ESPECIALLY
WESTERN HALF SUNDAY. COULD EVENTUALLY GO TO LOW LIKELY POPS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BUT GIVEN TREND OF MOISTURE/UVV SLIDING FARTHER WEST WILL
HOLD WITH HIGHER CHANCE POPS...EXCEPT MAINLY SLIGHT POPS PIEDMONT.

LITTLE CHANGE TO GOING TEMPS EXCEPT TO GO A BIT COOLER WEST UNDER MORE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS SUNDAY...OTHERWISE CLEAR/PC WITH HIGHS LOW/MID 80S AND
LOWS 58-65.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT THURSDAY...

WEAKNESS ALOFT SPLITTING THROUGH THE UPPER EASTERN RIDGE WILL BE ALONG
THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT PRIOR TO PINCHING OFF ALLOWING A WEAK
UPPER LOW TO SHIFT TO THE SW BEFORE HEIGHTS REBUILD EARLY NEXT WEEK
NORTH OF ERIKA. THIS COMBINED WITH A PIECE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
SLIDING UP FROM THE SOUTH...AND HIGHER PWATS SUPPORTS BETTER CHANCES OF
CONVECTION SUNDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE MOUNTAIN CHAIN. HOWEVER GIVEN WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IN PLACE...WONT
GO MUCH HIGHER THAN MEDIUM CHANCES WEST INTO MONDAY AND KEEP MOSTLY
ISOLATED FAR EAST. PASSING OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD ALLOW RIDGING ALOFT
TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST...AND ENHANCED BY LIKELY
SUBSIDENCE TO THE NORTH OF ERIKA OFF THE FLORIDA/SE COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THUS EXPECTING A GRADUAL DECREASE IN POPS STARTING TUESDAY
WITH PERHAPS ONLY ISOLATED MOUNTAIN COVERAGE AT BEST BY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. HOWEVER PENDING TRACK OF ERIKA COULD SEE ENOUGH MOISTURE
PUSHED INTO THE PIEDMONT WITHIN THE EASTERLY FETCH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST ON DAY7 SO KEPT MAINLY ISOLATED POPS
IN SPOTS. OTHERWISE MORE CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THEN PC TO
MOSTLY SUNNY AND MOSTLY CLEAR AT NIGHT INTO MIDWEEK FOR NOW.

TEMPS BASICALLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS EXCEPT FOR
INCREASING MOISTURE. THUS RUNNING WITH MAINLY LOW 80S WEST TO MID/UPPER
80S EAST...WITH OVERALL LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S...CLOSER TO THE WARMER
EC MOS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT THURSDAY...

A RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WITH SUBTLE FEATURES TO CONTEND WITH
THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING BY TO
OUR NORTH AND GIVING US LIGHT ELY/NELY WINDS...WHILE A PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN FEATURING WEAK TROFING ALOFT WILL KEEP SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY
FLOWING THROUGH THE REGION. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OROGRAPHIC
FORCING ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO GENERATE A MOSTLY VFR
CEILING...BUT BELIEVE ANY SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED AND NOT MERIT A
MENTION IN TAFS AT KLWB/KBLF/KBCB. EXPECT SITES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
TO BE DRY WITH SCT/V/BKN VFR CLOUDS.

TONIGHT SHOULD BE ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. THIS SHOULD GENERATE LIFR CONDITIONS AT KLWB WITH THIN FOG AND
SCT STRATUS FOR KBLF/KBCB. THERE MAY BE SOME THIN FOG ALSO AT KLYH AND
KDAN BUT BELIEVE PROBABILITY IS LOW ENOUGH AVOID USING A TEMPO GROUP
TOWARD DAYBREAK SO WILL NOT INDICATE ANY OBVIS. ANY FOG/STRATUS WILL
DISSIPATE AFTER DAYBREAK AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MAINLY SCT CLOUDS
THEREAFTER.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

EXPECT A MAINLY VFR FORECAST INTO SUNDAY. MOISTURE GRADUALLY
INCREASES BY THE WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE.
TYPICAL LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING MVFR TO LIFR FOG THREAT AT
LWB/BCB/LYH THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...AMS/MBS



000
FXUS61 KRNK 271903
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
303 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AND REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA INTO SATURDAY. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE NORTH ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS...MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE RESULTING IN
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...

WITH NO MAJOR SYNOPTIC CHANGES WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE RELATIVELY QUIET
WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
SLIDING BY TO OUR NORTH AND GIVING US LIGHT ELY/NELY WINDS...WHILE A
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FEATURING WEAK TROFING ALOFT WILL KEEP SOME SHORT
WAVE ENERGY FLOWING THROUGH THE REGION. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A
FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CU FIELD ACROSS THE REGION BUT AS OF EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON RADAR DOES NOT INDICATE ANY SHOWERS. HOWEVER...BELIEVE THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH OROGRAPHIC FORCING ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO
GENERATE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO. WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE FAR WEST WITH ANY SHOWERS DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET.
OVERNIGHT SHOULD SEE SOME FOG FORMATION AGAIN MAINLY IN THE VALLEYS
WEST OF THE RIDGE. FRIDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO
WHAT WE HAVE TODAY WITH ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON SHOWER
WEST OF THE RIDGE.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WITH LOWS AROUND 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT TO THE LOW/MID 50S WEST OF THE
RIDGE...AND HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S EAST TO GENERALLY MIDDLE 70S WEST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT THURSDAY...

RIDGING BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN DOMINANT TO START THE
WEEKEND WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY STAYING TO THE SOUTH/WEST
OF THE REGION INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THIS SEEN IN THE LATEST MODELS
INCLUDING FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT SHOW A MUCH DRIER COLUMN ALOFT THAN
SEEN FROM YESTERDAY. THEREFORE KEPT POPS OUT FRIDAY NIGHT AND CUT BACK
TO MORE ISOLATED MOUNTAIN COVERAGE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES WEST.

UPPER TROUGH SLIDING IN FROM THE NW BY SUNDAY WILL CAUSE HEIGHTS TO
LOWER WHILE IN TURN SCOOPING UP A WEAK SHORTWAVE FROM THE SOUTH ALONG
AN AXIS OF HIGHER PWATS. THIS WAVE ALONG WITH SOME UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO
THEN SLIDE NORTH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING A
DECENT AMOUNT OF WEAK LIFT DESPITE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.
AGAIN THINK ENOUGH TO BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS IN FROM THE SOUTH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERHAPS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ESPECIALLY
WESTERN HALF SUNDAY. COULD EVENTUALLY GO TO LOW LIKELY POPS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BUT GIVEN TREND OF MOISTURE/UVV SLIDING FARTHER WEST WILL
HOLD WITH HIGHER CHANCE POPS...EXCEPT MAINLY SLIGHT POPS PIEDMONT.

LITTLE CHANGE TO GOING TEMPS EXCEPT TO GO A BIT COOLER WEST UNDER MORE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS SUNDAY...OTHERWISE CLEAR/PC WITH HIGHS LOW/MID 80S AND
LOWS 58-65.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT THURSDAY...

WEAKNESS ALOFT SPLITTING THROUGH THE UPPER EASTERN RIDGE WILL BE ALONG
THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT PRIOR TO PINCHING OFF ALLOWING A WEAK
UPPER LOW TO SHIFT TO THE SW BEFORE HEIGHTS REBUILD EARLY NEXT WEEK
NORTH OF ERIKA. THIS COMBINED WITH A PIECE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
SLIDING UP FROM THE SOUTH...AND HIGHER PWATS SUPPORTS BETTER CHANCES OF
CONVECTION SUNDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE MOUNTAIN CHAIN. HOWEVER GIVEN WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IN PLACE...WONT
GO MUCH HIGHER THAN MEDIUM CHANCES WEST INTO MONDAY AND KEEP MOSTLY
ISOLATED FAR EAST. PASSING OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD ALLOW RIDGING ALOFT
TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST...AND ENHANCED BY LIKELY
SUBSIDENCE TO THE NORTH OF ERIKA OFF THE FLORIDA/SE COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THUS EXPECTING A GRADUAL DECREASE IN POPS STARTING TUESDAY
WITH PERHAPS ONLY ISOLATED MOUNTAIN COVERAGE AT BEST BY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. HOWEVER PENDING TRACK OF ERIKA COULD SEE ENOUGH MOISTURE
PUSHED INTO THE PIEDMONT WITHIN THE EASTERLY FETCH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST ON DAY7 SO KEPT MAINLY ISOLATED POPS
IN SPOTS. OTHERWISE MORE CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THEN PC TO
MOSTLY SUNNY AND MOSTLY CLEAR AT NIGHT INTO MIDWEEK FOR NOW.

TEMPS BASICALLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS EXCEPT FOR
INCREASING MOISTURE. THUS RUNNING WITH MAINLY LOW 80S WEST TO MID/UPPER
80S EAST...WITH OVERALL LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S...CLOSER TO THE WARMER
EC MOS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT THURSDAY...

A RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WITH SUBTLE FEATURES TO CONTEND WITH
THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING BY TO
OUR NORTH AND GIVING US LIGHT ELY/NELY WINDS...WHILE A PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN FEATURING WEAK TROFING ALOFT WILL KEEP SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY
FLOWING THROUGH THE REGION. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OROGRAPHIC
FORCING ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO GENERATE A MOSTLY VFR
CEILING...BUT BELIEVE ANY SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED AND NOT MERIT A
MENTION IN TAFS AT KLWB/KBLF/KBCB. EXPECT SITES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
TO BE DRY WITH SCT/V/BKN VFR CLOUDS.

TONIGHT SHOULD BE ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. THIS SHOULD GENERATE LIFR CONDITIONS AT KLWB WITH THIN FOG AND
SCT STRATUS FOR KBLF/KBCB. THERE MAY BE SOME THIN FOG ALSO AT KLYH AND
KDAN BUT BELIEVE PROBABILITY IS LOW ENOUGH AVOID USING A TEMPO GROUP
TOWARD DAYBREAK SO WILL NOT INDICATE ANY OBVIS. ANY FOG/STRATUS WILL
DISSIPATE AFTER DAYBREAK AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MAINLY SCT CLOUDS
THEREAFTER.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

EXPECT A MAINLY VFR FORECAST INTO SUNDAY. MOISTURE GRADUALLY
INCREASES BY THE WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE.
TYPICAL LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING MVFR TO LIFR FOG THREAT AT
LWB/BCB/LYH THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...AMS/MBS



000
FXUS61 KLWX 271837
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
237 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST FRIDAY AND REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
AND NRLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. TEMPS WILL LIKELY
MAX OUT IN THE UPPER 70S LOW 80S ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL GO LIGHT TO CALM. CU
FIELD WILL DISSAPATE THIS EVENING AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN LOW LYING AREAS INCLUDING
SHELTERED VALLEYS BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED. TEMPS WILL REACH
THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S OVERNIGHT. UPPER 60S IN THE METROS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE STAYS IN CONTROL FRIDAY AS THE CENTER MOVES OFF THE
EAST COAST. WINDS WILL BECOME S-SE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DEWPTS WILL
BEGIN TO RISE BUT SLOWLY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER MAY REACH THE VA
HIGHLANDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
OVERALL...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

NO PROBS XPCTD AS WE MOVE INTO THE LAST WKND OF AUG. HIGH PRES WL
BE MIGRATING FM THE UPR MIDWEST ACROSS THE MID ATLC...MODIFYING
THE AIR MASS SO THAT THE AREA XPRNCS INCSRG HUMIDITY/TEMPS OVR
THE WKND. HIGHS 85-90. LOWS 65-70. SLT CHC OF AFTN TSTMS OVR THE
MTNS.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER OM SOLUTIONS FOR
THE PERIOD OTHER THAN GENERAL RIDGING OVER REGION AND APPOACH OF
ERIKA NEAR END OF PERIOD. ECMWF SUGGEST MODERATE PVA TO SUPPORT
FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING EARLY HALF OF PERIOD AND A WEAKER
ERIKA WHILE GFS SHOWS WEAKER SUPPORT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT A
STRONER ERIKA.

LEANING TOWARDS GFS SOLUTION BUT HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF
ANY STORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. N WINDS 5-10KTS WILL
BECOME VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG MAY FORM AT MRB LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING BUT SHOULD NOT IMPACT TERMINALS. WINDS BECOME S-
SE FRIDAY 5-10KTS.

VFR CONDS XPCTD OVR THE WKND.

&&

.MARINE...

N WINDS 10-15KTS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER
THE WATERS. WINDS WILL BECOME S-SE FRIDAY.

WINDS XPCTD TO RMN BLO SCA VALUES THIS WKND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...HAS/WOODY!/CEM



000
FXUS61 KLWX 271837
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
237 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST FRIDAY AND REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
AND NRLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. TEMPS WILL LIKELY
MAX OUT IN THE UPPER 70S LOW 80S ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL GO LIGHT TO CALM. CU
FIELD WILL DISSAPATE THIS EVENING AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN LOW LYING AREAS INCLUDING
SHELTERED VALLEYS BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED. TEMPS WILL REACH
THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S OVERNIGHT. UPPER 60S IN THE METROS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE STAYS IN CONTROL FRIDAY AS THE CENTER MOVES OFF THE
EAST COAST. WINDS WILL BECOME S-SE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DEWPTS WILL
BEGIN TO RISE BUT SLOWLY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER MAY REACH THE VA
HIGHLANDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
OVERALL...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

NO PROBS XPCTD AS WE MOVE INTO THE LAST WKND OF AUG. HIGH PRES WL
BE MIGRATING FM THE UPR MIDWEST ACROSS THE MID ATLC...MODIFYING
THE AIR MASS SO THAT THE AREA XPRNCS INCSRG HUMIDITY/TEMPS OVR
THE WKND. HIGHS 85-90. LOWS 65-70. SLT CHC OF AFTN TSTMS OVR THE
MTNS.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER OM SOLUTIONS FOR
THE PERIOD OTHER THAN GENERAL RIDGING OVER REGION AND APPOACH OF
ERIKA NEAR END OF PERIOD. ECMWF SUGGEST MODERATE PVA TO SUPPORT
FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING EARLY HALF OF PERIOD AND A WEAKER
ERIKA WHILE GFS SHOWS WEAKER SUPPORT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT A
STRONER ERIKA.

LEANING TOWARDS GFS SOLUTION BUT HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF
ANY STORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. N WINDS 5-10KTS WILL
BECOME VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG MAY FORM AT MRB LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING BUT SHOULD NOT IMPACT TERMINALS. WINDS BECOME S-
SE FRIDAY 5-10KTS.

VFR CONDS XPCTD OVR THE WKND.

&&

.MARINE...

N WINDS 10-15KTS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER
THE WATERS. WINDS WILL BECOME S-SE FRIDAY.

WINDS XPCTD TO RMN BLO SCA VALUES THIS WKND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...HAS/WOODY!/CEM



000
FXUS61 KLWX 271837
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
237 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST FRIDAY AND REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
AND NRLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. TEMPS WILL LIKELY
MAX OUT IN THE UPPER 70S LOW 80S ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL GO LIGHT TO CALM. CU
FIELD WILL DISSAPATE THIS EVENING AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN LOW LYING AREAS INCLUDING
SHELTERED VALLEYS BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED. TEMPS WILL REACH
THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S OVERNIGHT. UPPER 60S IN THE METROS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE STAYS IN CONTROL FRIDAY AS THE CENTER MOVES OFF THE
EAST COAST. WINDS WILL BECOME S-SE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DEWPTS WILL
BEGIN TO RISE BUT SLOWLY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER MAY REACH THE VA
HIGHLANDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
OVERALL...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

NO PROBS XPCTD AS WE MOVE INTO THE LAST WKND OF AUG. HIGH PRES WL
BE MIGRATING FM THE UPR MIDWEST ACROSS THE MID ATLC...MODIFYING
THE AIR MASS SO THAT THE AREA XPRNCS INCSRG HUMIDITY/TEMPS OVR
THE WKND. HIGHS 85-90. LOWS 65-70. SLT CHC OF AFTN TSTMS OVR THE
MTNS.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER OM SOLUTIONS FOR
THE PERIOD OTHER THAN GENERAL RIDGING OVER REGION AND APPOACH OF
ERIKA NEAR END OF PERIOD. ECMWF SUGGEST MODERATE PVA TO SUPPORT
FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING EARLY HALF OF PERIOD AND A WEAKER
ERIKA WHILE GFS SHOWS WEAKER SUPPORT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT A
STRONER ERIKA.

LEANING TOWARDS GFS SOLUTION BUT HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF
ANY STORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. N WINDS 5-10KTS WILL
BECOME VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG MAY FORM AT MRB LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING BUT SHOULD NOT IMPACT TERMINALS. WINDS BECOME S-
SE FRIDAY 5-10KTS.

VFR CONDS XPCTD OVR THE WKND.

&&

.MARINE...

N WINDS 10-15KTS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER
THE WATERS. WINDS WILL BECOME S-SE FRIDAY.

WINDS XPCTD TO RMN BLO SCA VALUES THIS WKND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...HAS/WOODY!/CEM



000
FXUS61 KLWX 271837
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
237 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST FRIDAY AND REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
AND NRLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. TEMPS WILL LIKELY
MAX OUT IN THE UPPER 70S LOW 80S ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL GO LIGHT TO CALM. CU
FIELD WILL DISSAPATE THIS EVENING AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN LOW LYING AREAS INCLUDING
SHELTERED VALLEYS BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED. TEMPS WILL REACH
THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S OVERNIGHT. UPPER 60S IN THE METROS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE STAYS IN CONTROL FRIDAY AS THE CENTER MOVES OFF THE
EAST COAST. WINDS WILL BECOME S-SE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DEWPTS WILL
BEGIN TO RISE BUT SLOWLY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER MAY REACH THE VA
HIGHLANDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
OVERALL...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

NO PROBS XPCTD AS WE MOVE INTO THE LAST WKND OF AUG. HIGH PRES WL
BE MIGRATING FM THE UPR MIDWEST ACROSS THE MID ATLC...MODIFYING
THE AIR MASS SO THAT THE AREA XPRNCS INCSRG HUMIDITY/TEMPS OVR
THE WKND. HIGHS 85-90. LOWS 65-70. SLT CHC OF AFTN TSTMS OVR THE
MTNS.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER OM SOLUTIONS FOR
THE PERIOD OTHER THAN GENERAL RIDGING OVER REGION AND APPOACH OF
ERIKA NEAR END OF PERIOD. ECMWF SUGGEST MODERATE PVA TO SUPPORT
FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING EARLY HALF OF PERIOD AND A WEAKER
ERIKA WHILE GFS SHOWS WEAKER SUPPORT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT A
STRONER ERIKA.

LEANING TOWARDS GFS SOLUTION BUT HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF
ANY STORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. N WINDS 5-10KTS WILL
BECOME VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG MAY FORM AT MRB LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING BUT SHOULD NOT IMPACT TERMINALS. WINDS BECOME S-
SE FRIDAY 5-10KTS.

VFR CONDS XPCTD OVR THE WKND.

&&

.MARINE...

N WINDS 10-15KTS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER
THE WATERS. WINDS WILL BECOME S-SE FRIDAY.

WINDS XPCTD TO RMN BLO SCA VALUES THIS WKND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...HAS/WOODY!/CEM



000
FXUS61 KLWX 271837
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
237 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST FRIDAY AND REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
AND NRLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. TEMPS WILL LIKELY
MAX OUT IN THE UPPER 70S LOW 80S ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL GO LIGHT TO CALM. CU
FIELD WILL DISSAPATE THIS EVENING AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN LOW LYING AREAS INCLUDING
SHELTERED VALLEYS BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED. TEMPS WILL REACH
THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S OVERNIGHT. UPPER 60S IN THE METROS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE STAYS IN CONTROL FRIDAY AS THE CENTER MOVES OFF THE
EAST COAST. WINDS WILL BECOME S-SE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DEWPTS WILL
BEGIN TO RISE BUT SLOWLY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER MAY REACH THE VA
HIGHLANDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
OVERALL...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

NO PROBS XPCTD AS WE MOVE INTO THE LAST WKND OF AUG. HIGH PRES WL
BE MIGRATING FM THE UPR MIDWEST ACROSS THE MID ATLC...MODIFYING
THE AIR MASS SO THAT THE AREA XPRNCS INCSRG HUMIDITY/TEMPS OVR
THE WKND. HIGHS 85-90. LOWS 65-70. SLT CHC OF AFTN TSTMS OVR THE
MTNS.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER OM SOLUTIONS FOR
THE PERIOD OTHER THAN GENERAL RIDGING OVER REGION AND APPOACH OF
ERIKA NEAR END OF PERIOD. ECMWF SUGGEST MODERATE PVA TO SUPPORT
FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING EARLY HALF OF PERIOD AND A WEAKER
ERIKA WHILE GFS SHOWS WEAKER SUPPORT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT A
STRONER ERIKA.

LEANING TOWARDS GFS SOLUTION BUT HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF
ANY STORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. N WINDS 5-10KTS WILL
BECOME VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG MAY FORM AT MRB LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING BUT SHOULD NOT IMPACT TERMINALS. WINDS BECOME S-
SE FRIDAY 5-10KTS.

VFR CONDS XPCTD OVR THE WKND.

&&

.MARINE...

N WINDS 10-15KTS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER
THE WATERS. WINDS WILL BECOME S-SE FRIDAY.

WINDS XPCTD TO RMN BLO SCA VALUES THIS WKND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...HAS/WOODY!/CEM




000
FXUS61 KLWX 271837
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
237 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST FRIDAY AND REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
AND NRLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. TEMPS WILL LIKELY
MAX OUT IN THE UPPER 70S LOW 80S ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL GO LIGHT TO CALM. CU
FIELD WILL DISSAPATE THIS EVENING AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN LOW LYING AREAS INCLUDING
SHELTERED VALLEYS BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED. TEMPS WILL REACH
THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S OVERNIGHT. UPPER 60S IN THE METROS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE STAYS IN CONTROL FRIDAY AS THE CENTER MOVES OFF THE
EAST COAST. WINDS WILL BECOME S-SE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DEWPTS WILL
BEGIN TO RISE BUT SLOWLY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER MAY REACH THE VA
HIGHLANDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
OVERALL...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

NO PROBS XPCTD AS WE MOVE INTO THE LAST WKND OF AUG. HIGH PRES WL
BE MIGRATING FM THE UPR MIDWEST ACROSS THE MID ATLC...MODIFYING
THE AIR MASS SO THAT THE AREA XPRNCS INCSRG HUMIDITY/TEMPS OVR
THE WKND. HIGHS 85-90. LOWS 65-70. SLT CHC OF AFTN TSTMS OVR THE
MTNS.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER OM SOLUTIONS FOR
THE PERIOD OTHER THAN GENERAL RIDGING OVER REGION AND APPOACH OF
ERIKA NEAR END OF PERIOD. ECMWF SUGGEST MODERATE PVA TO SUPPORT
FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING EARLY HALF OF PERIOD AND A WEAKER
ERIKA WHILE GFS SHOWS WEAKER SUPPORT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT A
STRONER ERIKA.

LEANING TOWARDS GFS SOLUTION BUT HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF
ANY STORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. N WINDS 5-10KTS WILL
BECOME VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG MAY FORM AT MRB LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING BUT SHOULD NOT IMPACT TERMINALS. WINDS BECOME S-
SE FRIDAY 5-10KTS.

VFR CONDS XPCTD OVR THE WKND.

&&

.MARINE...

N WINDS 10-15KTS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER
THE WATERS. WINDS WILL BECOME S-SE FRIDAY.

WINDS XPCTD TO RMN BLO SCA VALUES THIS WKND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...HAS/WOODY!/CEM




000
FXUS61 KLWX 271837
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
237 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST FRIDAY AND REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
AND NRLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. TEMPS WILL LIKELY
MAX OUT IN THE UPPER 70S LOW 80S ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL GO LIGHT TO CALM. CU
FIELD WILL DISSAPATE THIS EVENING AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN LOW LYING AREAS INCLUDING
SHELTERED VALLEYS BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED. TEMPS WILL REACH
THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S OVERNIGHT. UPPER 60S IN THE METROS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE STAYS IN CONTROL FRIDAY AS THE CENTER MOVES OFF THE
EAST COAST. WINDS WILL BECOME S-SE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DEWPTS WILL
BEGIN TO RISE BUT SLOWLY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER MAY REACH THE VA
HIGHLANDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
OVERALL...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

NO PROBS XPCTD AS WE MOVE INTO THE LAST WKND OF AUG. HIGH PRES WL
BE MIGRATING FM THE UPR MIDWEST ACROSS THE MID ATLC...MODIFYING
THE AIR MASS SO THAT THE AREA XPRNCS INCSRG HUMIDITY/TEMPS OVR
THE WKND. HIGHS 85-90. LOWS 65-70. SLT CHC OF AFTN TSTMS OVR THE
MTNS.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER OM SOLUTIONS FOR
THE PERIOD OTHER THAN GENERAL RIDGING OVER REGION AND APPOACH OF
ERIKA NEAR END OF PERIOD. ECMWF SUGGEST MODERATE PVA TO SUPPORT
FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING EARLY HALF OF PERIOD AND A WEAKER
ERIKA WHILE GFS SHOWS WEAKER SUPPORT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT A
STRONER ERIKA.

LEANING TOWARDS GFS SOLUTION BUT HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF
ANY STORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. N WINDS 5-10KTS WILL
BECOME VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG MAY FORM AT MRB LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING BUT SHOULD NOT IMPACT TERMINALS. WINDS BECOME S-
SE FRIDAY 5-10KTS.

VFR CONDS XPCTD OVR THE WKND.

&&

.MARINE...

N WINDS 10-15KTS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER
THE WATERS. WINDS WILL BECOME S-SE FRIDAY.

WINDS XPCTD TO RMN BLO SCA VALUES THIS WKND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...HAS/WOODY!/CEM




000
FXUS61 KLWX 271837
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
237 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST FRIDAY AND REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
AND NRLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. TEMPS WILL LIKELY
MAX OUT IN THE UPPER 70S LOW 80S ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL GO LIGHT TO CALM. CU
FIELD WILL DISSAPATE THIS EVENING AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN LOW LYING AREAS INCLUDING
SHELTERED VALLEYS BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED. TEMPS WILL REACH
THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S OVERNIGHT. UPPER 60S IN THE METROS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE STAYS IN CONTROL FRIDAY AS THE CENTER MOVES OFF THE
EAST COAST. WINDS WILL BECOME S-SE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DEWPTS WILL
BEGIN TO RISE BUT SLOWLY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER MAY REACH THE VA
HIGHLANDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
OVERALL...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

NO PROBS XPCTD AS WE MOVE INTO THE LAST WKND OF AUG. HIGH PRES WL
BE MIGRATING FM THE UPR MIDWEST ACROSS THE MID ATLC...MODIFYING
THE AIR MASS SO THAT THE AREA XPRNCS INCSRG HUMIDITY/TEMPS OVR
THE WKND. HIGHS 85-90. LOWS 65-70. SLT CHC OF AFTN TSTMS OVR THE
MTNS.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER OM SOLUTIONS FOR
THE PERIOD OTHER THAN GENERAL RIDGING OVER REGION AND APPOACH OF
ERIKA NEAR END OF PERIOD. ECMWF SUGGEST MODERATE PVA TO SUPPORT
FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING EARLY HALF OF PERIOD AND A WEAKER
ERIKA WHILE GFS SHOWS WEAKER SUPPORT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT A
STRONER ERIKA.

LEANING TOWARDS GFS SOLUTION BUT HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF
ANY STORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. N WINDS 5-10KTS WILL
BECOME VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG MAY FORM AT MRB LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING BUT SHOULD NOT IMPACT TERMINALS. WINDS BECOME S-
SE FRIDAY 5-10KTS.

VFR CONDS XPCTD OVR THE WKND.

&&

.MARINE...

N WINDS 10-15KTS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER
THE WATERS. WINDS WILL BECOME S-SE FRIDAY.

WINDS XPCTD TO RMN BLO SCA VALUES THIS WKND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...HAS/WOODY!/CEM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271802
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
202 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ALONG THE CAROLINA AND
SOUTHEAST COASTS TODAY...SHIFTING SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ALONG THE CAROLINA AND
SOUTHEAST COASTS TODAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY PERIODICALLY STREAMING UP
FROM THE SOUTH WILL CROSS THIS BOUNDARY AND ALLOW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE DAY...PRIMARILY
ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NE NC. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD
BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
NORTHWEST. HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOW-MID 80S WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE
WINDS.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW TONIGHT...
SHUNTING THE STALLED BOUNDARY FARTHER SE AND AWAY FROM THE AREA.
THIS WILL BRING AN END TO ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING AND
ALLOW SKIES TO SCATTER OUT ACROSS THE SE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. LOWS IN THE 60S (AROUND 70 AT IMMEDIATE SE COASTAL AREAS).

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. EXPECT A DRY FORECAST WITH SEASONAL NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE DAY/MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AT NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S (LOWER 80S AT THE BEACHES)
AND LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S (LOWER 70S AT THE BEACHES). THE SFC
HIGH STARTS TO SLIDE OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY AND MAY OPEN THE DOOR
FOR INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. THIS COULD INTRODUCE
SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST SAT NIGHT NEAR THE FAR SE VA/NE NC
COASTAL AREAS...BUT WILL CARRY A DRY FORECAST WITH INCREASING
CLOUD COVER FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERALL PATTERN IN EXTENDED PD RMNS UNCHANGED FM PAST COUPLE DAYS.
RESIDUAL TROUGH ALOFT WILL LINGER GENERALLY FM THE OH VLY TO THE
GULF CST STATES...WHILE HI PRES BECOMES ESTABLISHED NR/E OF THE
MDATLC RGN. LONG FETCH FM THE ESE THROUGH THE SW ATLC XPCD TO
BRING SOME INCRS IN TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE SE STATES. MDL ARE
UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW MUCH IF ANY OF THAT MOISTURE EVENTUALLY
SPREADS FARTHER N INTO THE MDATLC STATES. HARD TO DEVIATE FM MNLY
DIURNAL POPS THROUGH THE PD. GIVEN THE PATTERN...AFT PD OF LWR
HUMIDITY...OVR THE WKND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE WARM/HUMID W/
TEMPS AVGG OUT A COUPLE/FEW DEGS F ABV NORMAL. HI TEMPS IN THE
80S. LO TEMPS AT NGT IN THE U60S TO L70F.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OCNL BKN CIGS 6-10KFT INVOF FAR SE VA/CSTL NE NC THIS AFTN...WHILE
MNLY SKC ELSW. NNE WNDS CONTG TO SLOLY WANE OVR SRN VA/NE NC THE
NEXT FEW HRS. VFR CONDS XPCD THROUGH TNGT. ANY LINGERING CIGS IN
SE VA/CSTL NE NC AOA 8-10KFT.

SFC HI PRES MOVES ACRS THE NE CONUS FRI KEEPING CONDS VFR W/
ONSHORE E/NE WINDS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL NEAR/JUST
N/E OF THE MDATLC CST THROUGH THE WKND...WITH GENLY DRY/VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING (COULD SEE SOME PATCHY EARLY AM FOG
SAT/SUN).

&&

.MARINE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE IL/IN TODAY WILL SHIFT EAST TO
PA ON FRI...WHILE WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE SE COAST.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOT STRONG...BUT STILL ENOUGH TO GENERATE
AROUND 15 KT OF N/NE WIND ACRS THE LOWER BAY AND SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS...WINDS AVG 10 KT ELSEWHERE. AS A RESULT...WAVES THIS
MORNING WILL AVG 2-3 FT IN THE LOWER BAY...WITH SEAS AROUND 4 FT
FOR NC COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT SOME WEAKENING IN WIND SPEEDS THIS
AFTN/EVENING WITH MODELS SUGGESTING WINDS RAMP UP SLIGHTLY AGAIN
EARLY FRI MORNING. OVERALL FROM THIS AFTN INTO MIDDAY FRI SEAS
WILL AVG 3-4 FT S TO 2-3 FT N...WITH WAVES GENLY 1-2 FT IN THE BAY
AND AROUND 1 FOOT FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BECOMING ESTABLISHED NEAR OR JUST OFF THE MID
ATLC COAST FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WK. EXPECT SUB-SCA
CONDS FM FRI NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...W/ WINDS FLUCTUATING FM
NE-SE AND AVERAGING 10-15 KT OR LESS. WAVES GENLY 1-2 FT/SEAS
2-3 FT SAT/SUN.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...ALB
AVIATION...ALB/LKB
MARINE...LKB




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271802
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
202 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ALONG THE CAROLINA AND
SOUTHEAST COASTS TODAY...SHIFTING SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ALONG THE CAROLINA AND
SOUTHEAST COASTS TODAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY PERIODICALLY STREAMING UP
FROM THE SOUTH WILL CROSS THIS BOUNDARY AND ALLOW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE DAY...PRIMARILY
ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NE NC. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD
BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
NORTHWEST. HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOW-MID 80S WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE
WINDS.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW TONIGHT...
SHUNTING THE STALLED BOUNDARY FARTHER SE AND AWAY FROM THE AREA.
THIS WILL BRING AN END TO ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING AND
ALLOW SKIES TO SCATTER OUT ACROSS THE SE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. LOWS IN THE 60S (AROUND 70 AT IMMEDIATE SE COASTAL AREAS).

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. EXPECT A DRY FORECAST WITH SEASONAL NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE DAY/MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AT NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S (LOWER 80S AT THE BEACHES)
AND LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S (LOWER 70S AT THE BEACHES). THE SFC
HIGH STARTS TO SLIDE OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY AND MAY OPEN THE DOOR
FOR INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. THIS COULD INTRODUCE
SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST SAT NIGHT NEAR THE FAR SE VA/NE NC
COASTAL AREAS...BUT WILL CARRY A DRY FORECAST WITH INCREASING
CLOUD COVER FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERALL PATTERN IN EXTENDED PD RMNS UNCHANGED FM PAST COUPLE DAYS.
RESIDUAL TROUGH ALOFT WILL LINGER GENERALLY FM THE OH VLY TO THE
GULF CST STATES...WHILE HI PRES BECOMES ESTABLISHED NR/E OF THE
MDATLC RGN. LONG FETCH FM THE ESE THROUGH THE SW ATLC XPCD TO
BRING SOME INCRS IN TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE SE STATES. MDL ARE
UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW MUCH IF ANY OF THAT MOISTURE EVENTUALLY
SPREADS FARTHER N INTO THE MDATLC STATES. HARD TO DEVIATE FM MNLY
DIURNAL POPS THROUGH THE PD. GIVEN THE PATTERN...AFT PD OF LWR
HUMIDITY...OVR THE WKND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE WARM/HUMID W/
TEMPS AVGG OUT A COUPLE/FEW DEGS F ABV NORMAL. HI TEMPS IN THE
80S. LO TEMPS AT NGT IN THE U60S TO L70F.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OCNL BKN CIGS 6-10KFT INVOF FAR SE VA/CSTL NE NC THIS AFTN...WHILE
MNLY SKC ELSW. NNE WNDS CONTG TO SLOLY WANE OVR SRN VA/NE NC THE
NEXT FEW HRS. VFR CONDS XPCD THROUGH TNGT. ANY LINGERING CIGS IN
SE VA/CSTL NE NC AOA 8-10KFT.

SFC HI PRES MOVES ACRS THE NE CONUS FRI KEEPING CONDS VFR W/
ONSHORE E/NE WINDS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL NEAR/JUST
N/E OF THE MDATLC CST THROUGH THE WKND...WITH GENLY DRY/VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING (COULD SEE SOME PATCHY EARLY AM FOG
SAT/SUN).

&&

.MARINE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE IL/IN TODAY WILL SHIFT EAST TO
PA ON FRI...WHILE WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE SE COAST.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOT STRONG...BUT STILL ENOUGH TO GENERATE
AROUND 15 KT OF N/NE WIND ACRS THE LOWER BAY AND SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS...WINDS AVG 10 KT ELSEWHERE. AS A RESULT...WAVES THIS
MORNING WILL AVG 2-3 FT IN THE LOWER BAY...WITH SEAS AROUND 4 FT
FOR NC COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT SOME WEAKENING IN WIND SPEEDS THIS
AFTN/EVENING WITH MODELS SUGGESTING WINDS RAMP UP SLIGHTLY AGAIN
EARLY FRI MORNING. OVERALL FROM THIS AFTN INTO MIDDAY FRI SEAS
WILL AVG 3-4 FT S TO 2-3 FT N...WITH WAVES GENLY 1-2 FT IN THE BAY
AND AROUND 1 FOOT FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BECOMING ESTABLISHED NEAR OR JUST OFF THE MID
ATLC COAST FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WK. EXPECT SUB-SCA
CONDS FM FRI NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...W/ WINDS FLUCTUATING FM
NE-SE AND AVERAGING 10-15 KT OR LESS. WAVES GENLY 1-2 FT/SEAS
2-3 FT SAT/SUN.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...ALB
AVIATION...ALB/LKB
MARINE...LKB



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271802
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
202 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ALONG THE CAROLINA AND
SOUTHEAST COASTS TODAY...SHIFTING SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ALONG THE CAROLINA AND
SOUTHEAST COASTS TODAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY PERIODICALLY STREAMING UP
FROM THE SOUTH WILL CROSS THIS BOUNDARY AND ALLOW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE DAY...PRIMARILY
ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NE NC. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD
BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
NORTHWEST. HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOW-MID 80S WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE
WINDS.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW TONIGHT...
SHUNTING THE STALLED BOUNDARY FARTHER SE AND AWAY FROM THE AREA.
THIS WILL BRING AN END TO ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING AND
ALLOW SKIES TO SCATTER OUT ACROSS THE SE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. LOWS IN THE 60S (AROUND 70 AT IMMEDIATE SE COASTAL AREAS).

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. EXPECT A DRY FORECAST WITH SEASONAL NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE DAY/MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AT NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S (LOWER 80S AT THE BEACHES)
AND LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S (LOWER 70S AT THE BEACHES). THE SFC
HIGH STARTS TO SLIDE OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY AND MAY OPEN THE DOOR
FOR INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. THIS COULD INTRODUCE
SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST SAT NIGHT NEAR THE FAR SE VA/NE NC
COASTAL AREAS...BUT WILL CARRY A DRY FORECAST WITH INCREASING
CLOUD COVER FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERALL PATTERN IN EXTENDED PD RMNS UNCHANGED FM PAST COUPLE DAYS.
RESIDUAL TROUGH ALOFT WILL LINGER GENERALLY FM THE OH VLY TO THE
GULF CST STATES...WHILE HI PRES BECOMES ESTABLISHED NR/E OF THE
MDATLC RGN. LONG FETCH FM THE ESE THROUGH THE SW ATLC XPCD TO
BRING SOME INCRS IN TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE SE STATES. MDL ARE
UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW MUCH IF ANY OF THAT MOISTURE EVENTUALLY
SPREADS FARTHER N INTO THE MDATLC STATES. HARD TO DEVIATE FM MNLY
DIURNAL POPS THROUGH THE PD. GIVEN THE PATTERN...AFT PD OF LWR
HUMIDITY...OVR THE WKND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE WARM/HUMID W/
TEMPS AVGG OUT A COUPLE/FEW DEGS F ABV NORMAL. HI TEMPS IN THE
80S. LO TEMPS AT NGT IN THE U60S TO L70F.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OCNL BKN CIGS 6-10KFT INVOF FAR SE VA/CSTL NE NC THIS AFTN...WHILE
MNLY SKC ELSW. NNE WNDS CONTG TO SLOLY WANE OVR SRN VA/NE NC THE
NEXT FEW HRS. VFR CONDS XPCD THROUGH TNGT. ANY LINGERING CIGS IN
SE VA/CSTL NE NC AOA 8-10KFT.

SFC HI PRES MOVES ACRS THE NE CONUS FRI KEEPING CONDS VFR W/
ONSHORE E/NE WINDS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL NEAR/JUST
N/E OF THE MDATLC CST THROUGH THE WKND...WITH GENLY DRY/VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING (COULD SEE SOME PATCHY EARLY AM FOG
SAT/SUN).

&&

.MARINE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE IL/IN TODAY WILL SHIFT EAST TO
PA ON FRI...WHILE WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE SE COAST.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOT STRONG...BUT STILL ENOUGH TO GENERATE
AROUND 15 KT OF N/NE WIND ACRS THE LOWER BAY AND SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS...WINDS AVG 10 KT ELSEWHERE. AS A RESULT...WAVES THIS
MORNING WILL AVG 2-3 FT IN THE LOWER BAY...WITH SEAS AROUND 4 FT
FOR NC COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT SOME WEAKENING IN WIND SPEEDS THIS
AFTN/EVENING WITH MODELS SUGGESTING WINDS RAMP UP SLIGHTLY AGAIN
EARLY FRI MORNING. OVERALL FROM THIS AFTN INTO MIDDAY FRI SEAS
WILL AVG 3-4 FT S TO 2-3 FT N...WITH WAVES GENLY 1-2 FT IN THE BAY
AND AROUND 1 FOOT FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BECOMING ESTABLISHED NEAR OR JUST OFF THE MID
ATLC COAST FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WK. EXPECT SUB-SCA
CONDS FM FRI NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...W/ WINDS FLUCTUATING FM
NE-SE AND AVERAGING 10-15 KT OR LESS. WAVES GENLY 1-2 FT/SEAS
2-3 FT SAT/SUN.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...ALB
AVIATION...ALB/LKB
MARINE...LKB



000
FXUS61 KRNK 271733
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
133 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
WITH A FRONT TRAILING UP THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT THURSDAY...

QUIET DAY ACROSS THE REGION. SCT TO BKN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. HELD
TEMPERATURES IN CHECK WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS THE NW NC MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE HOWEVER WITH LITTLE FORCING PRESENT HAVE KEPT
POPS LOW.

AS OF 300 AM EDT THURSDAY...

SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER EARLY
THIS MORNING. FOG WAS ALREADY DEVELOPING IN AREA THAT REMAINED
CLEAR. MSAS ANALYSIS INDICATED A LARGE SPREAD IN SURFACE DEW
POINTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM AROUND 50 IN SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTHEAST OF DANVILLE.

AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES EAST TODAY AND
A COASTAL TROF REMAINS ALONG THE CAROLINAS...SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST. THIS KEEP HIGHER DEW
POINTS OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.

HAVE TRIMMED BACK PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHWEST
COUNTY WARNING AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ASIDE FROM AN
EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND...LITTLE FORCING IS EXPECTED
TODAY.

STAYED CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY AND LOWS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT THURSDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AFFECTING THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THE PAST
FEW DAYS WILL FILL AND RETROGRADE WESTWARD ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC TO COME INCREASINGLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING NUDGING IN FROM THE ATLANTIC.

ON FRIDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NORTHEASTERLY IN THE MORNING TO
EAST SOUTHEASTERLY LATER IN THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE
OF NEW ENGLAND. THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL OPEN OUR AREA TO MARINE
AIR...WHICH WILL RESULT IN INCREASED CLOUDS AREAWIDE...AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AS THE MOISTURE IS
FORCED UPSLOPE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 70S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE LOW
80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR SATURDAY...SIMILAR
WEATHER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED...ALBEIT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. INCREASED
INFLUENCE FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL HELP SATURDAY AFTERNOON
HIGHS WARM 2 TO 3 DEGREES OVER THOSE OF FRIDAY.

FOR SUNDAY...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH WILL
LIFT A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN...RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF
OUR AREA.

AS MOISTURE CREEPS BACK INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...EXPECT
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO BECOME INCREASINGLY MILD EACH NIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO THE LOW 60S MOST LOCATIONS
FRIDAY NIGHT...WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S AREAWIDE BY SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS ON
MONDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKENING RIDGING TO THE EAST. GIVEN
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW...WILL MAINTAIN DIURNAL OROGRAPHIC DRIVEN
CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST...BUT GIVEN PROGGED WEAK INSTABILITY AND
WEAK UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST...COULD BE
MORE WIDESPREAD IF A WEAK WAVE DOES SLIDE UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

UPPER RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN BY MID WEEK AIDED BY SUBSIDENCE
TO THE NORTH PER THE PROBABLE ARRIVAL OF ERIKA OVER FLORIDA. THUS
WILL KEEP MORE ISOLATED MOUNTAIN CONVECTION FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS IN PLACE. OTHERWISE WILL BE RETURNING
TO QUITE A WARM/MUGGY SCENARIO THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS MOSTLY
80S AND POSSIBLY NEAR 90 SE...AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT THURSDAY...

A RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WITH SUBTLE FEATURES TO CONTEND WITH
THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING BY TO
OUR NORTH AND GIVING US LIGHT ELY/NELY WINDS...WHILE A PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN FEATURING WEAK TROFING ALOFT WILL KEEP SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY
FLOWING THROUGH THE REGION. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OROGRAPHIC
FORCING ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO GENERATE A MOSTLY VFR
CEILING...BUT BELIEVE ANY SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED AND NOT MERIT A
MENTION IN TAFS AT KLWB/KBLF/KBCB. EXPECT SITES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
TO BE DRY WITH SCT/V/BKN VFR CLOUDS.

TONIGHT SHOULD BE ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. THIS SHOULD GENERATE LIFR CONDITIONS AT KLWB WITH THIN FOG AND
SCT STRATUS FOR KBLF/KBCB. THERE MAY BE SOME THIN FOG ALSO AT KLYH AND
KDAN BUT BELIEVE PROBABILITY IS LOW ENOUGH AVOID USING A TEMPO GROUP
TOWARD DAYBREAK SO WILL NOT INDICATE ANY OBVIS. ANY FOG/STRATUS WILL
DISSIPATE AFTER DAYBREAK AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MAINLY SCT CLOUDS
THEREAFTER.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

EXPECT A MAINLY VFR FORECAST INTO SUNDAY. MOISTURE GRADUALLY
INCREASES BY THE WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE.
TYPICAL LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING MVFR TO LIFR FOG THREAT AT
LWB/BCB/LYH THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/CF
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...MBS/AMS



000
FXUS61 KRNK 271733
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
133 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
WITH A FRONT TRAILING UP THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT THURSDAY...

QUIET DAY ACROSS THE REGION. SCT TO BKN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. HELD
TEMPERATURES IN CHECK WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS THE NW NC MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE HOWEVER WITH LITTLE FORCING PRESENT HAVE KEPT
POPS LOW.

AS OF 300 AM EDT THURSDAY...

SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER EARLY
THIS MORNING. FOG WAS ALREADY DEVELOPING IN AREA THAT REMAINED
CLEAR. MSAS ANALYSIS INDICATED A LARGE SPREAD IN SURFACE DEW
POINTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM AROUND 50 IN SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTHEAST OF DANVILLE.

AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES EAST TODAY AND
A COASTAL TROF REMAINS ALONG THE CAROLINAS...SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST. THIS KEEP HIGHER DEW
POINTS OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.

HAVE TRIMMED BACK PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHWEST
COUNTY WARNING AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ASIDE FROM AN
EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND...LITTLE FORCING IS EXPECTED
TODAY.

STAYED CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY AND LOWS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT THURSDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AFFECTING THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THE PAST
FEW DAYS WILL FILL AND RETROGRADE WESTWARD ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC TO COME INCREASINGLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING NUDGING IN FROM THE ATLANTIC.

ON FRIDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NORTHEASTERLY IN THE MORNING TO
EAST SOUTHEASTERLY LATER IN THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE
OF NEW ENGLAND. THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL OPEN OUR AREA TO MARINE
AIR...WHICH WILL RESULT IN INCREASED CLOUDS AREAWIDE...AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AS THE MOISTURE IS
FORCED UPSLOPE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 70S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE LOW
80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR SATURDAY...SIMILAR
WEATHER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED...ALBEIT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. INCREASED
INFLUENCE FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL HELP SATURDAY AFTERNOON
HIGHS WARM 2 TO 3 DEGREES OVER THOSE OF FRIDAY.

FOR SUNDAY...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH WILL
LIFT A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN...RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF
OUR AREA.

AS MOISTURE CREEPS BACK INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...EXPECT
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO BECOME INCREASINGLY MILD EACH NIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO THE LOW 60S MOST LOCATIONS
FRIDAY NIGHT...WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S AREAWIDE BY SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS ON
MONDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKENING RIDGING TO THE EAST. GIVEN
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW...WILL MAINTAIN DIURNAL OROGRAPHIC DRIVEN
CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST...BUT GIVEN PROGGED WEAK INSTABILITY AND
WEAK UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST...COULD BE
MORE WIDESPREAD IF A WEAK WAVE DOES SLIDE UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

UPPER RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN BY MID WEEK AIDED BY SUBSIDENCE
TO THE NORTH PER THE PROBABLE ARRIVAL OF ERIKA OVER FLORIDA. THUS
WILL KEEP MORE ISOLATED MOUNTAIN CONVECTION FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS IN PLACE. OTHERWISE WILL BE RETURNING
TO QUITE A WARM/MUGGY SCENARIO THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS MOSTLY
80S AND POSSIBLY NEAR 90 SE...AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT THURSDAY...

A RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WITH SUBTLE FEATURES TO CONTEND WITH
THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING BY TO
OUR NORTH AND GIVING US LIGHT ELY/NELY WINDS...WHILE A PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN FEATURING WEAK TROFING ALOFT WILL KEEP SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY
FLOWING THROUGH THE REGION. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OROGRAPHIC
FORCING ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO GENERATE A MOSTLY VFR
CEILING...BUT BELIEVE ANY SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED AND NOT MERIT A
MENTION IN TAFS AT KLWB/KBLF/KBCB. EXPECT SITES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
TO BE DRY WITH SCT/V/BKN VFR CLOUDS.

TONIGHT SHOULD BE ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. THIS SHOULD GENERATE LIFR CONDITIONS AT KLWB WITH THIN FOG AND
SCT STRATUS FOR KBLF/KBCB. THERE MAY BE SOME THIN FOG ALSO AT KLYH AND
KDAN BUT BELIEVE PROBABILITY IS LOW ENOUGH AVOID USING A TEMPO GROUP
TOWARD DAYBREAK SO WILL NOT INDICATE ANY OBVIS. ANY FOG/STRATUS WILL
DISSIPATE AFTER DAYBREAK AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MAINLY SCT CLOUDS
THEREAFTER.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

EXPECT A MAINLY VFR FORECAST INTO SUNDAY. MOISTURE GRADUALLY
INCREASES BY THE WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE.
TYPICAL LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING MVFR TO LIFR FOG THREAT AT
LWB/BCB/LYH THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/CF
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...MBS/AMS



000
FXUS61 KRNK 271733
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
133 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
WITH A FRONT TRAILING UP THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT THURSDAY...

QUIET DAY ACROSS THE REGION. SCT TO BKN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. HELD
TEMPERATURES IN CHECK WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS THE NW NC MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE HOWEVER WITH LITTLE FORCING PRESENT HAVE KEPT
POPS LOW.

AS OF 300 AM EDT THURSDAY...

SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER EARLY
THIS MORNING. FOG WAS ALREADY DEVELOPING IN AREA THAT REMAINED
CLEAR. MSAS ANALYSIS INDICATED A LARGE SPREAD IN SURFACE DEW
POINTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM AROUND 50 IN SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTHEAST OF DANVILLE.

AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES EAST TODAY AND
A COASTAL TROF REMAINS ALONG THE CAROLINAS...SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST. THIS KEEP HIGHER DEW
POINTS OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.

HAVE TRIMMED BACK PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHWEST
COUNTY WARNING AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ASIDE FROM AN
EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND...LITTLE FORCING IS EXPECTED
TODAY.

STAYED CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY AND LOWS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT THURSDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AFFECTING THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THE PAST
FEW DAYS WILL FILL AND RETROGRADE WESTWARD ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC TO COME INCREASINGLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING NUDGING IN FROM THE ATLANTIC.

ON FRIDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NORTHEASTERLY IN THE MORNING TO
EAST SOUTHEASTERLY LATER IN THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE
OF NEW ENGLAND. THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL OPEN OUR AREA TO MARINE
AIR...WHICH WILL RESULT IN INCREASED CLOUDS AREAWIDE...AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AS THE MOISTURE IS
FORCED UPSLOPE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 70S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE LOW
80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR SATURDAY...SIMILAR
WEATHER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED...ALBEIT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. INCREASED
INFLUENCE FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL HELP SATURDAY AFTERNOON
HIGHS WARM 2 TO 3 DEGREES OVER THOSE OF FRIDAY.

FOR SUNDAY...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH WILL
LIFT A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN...RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF
OUR AREA.

AS MOISTURE CREEPS BACK INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...EXPECT
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO BECOME INCREASINGLY MILD EACH NIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO THE LOW 60S MOST LOCATIONS
FRIDAY NIGHT...WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S AREAWIDE BY SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS ON
MONDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKENING RIDGING TO THE EAST. GIVEN
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW...WILL MAINTAIN DIURNAL OROGRAPHIC DRIVEN
CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST...BUT GIVEN PROGGED WEAK INSTABILITY AND
WEAK UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST...COULD BE
MORE WIDESPREAD IF A WEAK WAVE DOES SLIDE UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

UPPER RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN BY MID WEEK AIDED BY SUBSIDENCE
TO THE NORTH PER THE PROBABLE ARRIVAL OF ERIKA OVER FLORIDA. THUS
WILL KEEP MORE ISOLATED MOUNTAIN CONVECTION FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS IN PLACE. OTHERWISE WILL BE RETURNING
TO QUITE A WARM/MUGGY SCENARIO THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS MOSTLY
80S AND POSSIBLY NEAR 90 SE...AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT THURSDAY...

A RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WITH SUBTLE FEATURES TO CONTEND WITH
THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING BY TO
OUR NORTH AND GIVING US LIGHT ELY/NELY WINDS...WHILE A PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN FEATURING WEAK TROFING ALOFT WILL KEEP SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY
FLOWING THROUGH THE REGION. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OROGRAPHIC
FORCING ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO GENERATE A MOSTLY VFR
CEILING...BUT BELIEVE ANY SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED AND NOT MERIT A
MENTION IN TAFS AT KLWB/KBLF/KBCB. EXPECT SITES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
TO BE DRY WITH SCT/V/BKN VFR CLOUDS.

TONIGHT SHOULD BE ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. THIS SHOULD GENERATE LIFR CONDITIONS AT KLWB WITH THIN FOG AND
SCT STRATUS FOR KBLF/KBCB. THERE MAY BE SOME THIN FOG ALSO AT KLYH AND
KDAN BUT BELIEVE PROBABILITY IS LOW ENOUGH AVOID USING A TEMPO GROUP
TOWARD DAYBREAK SO WILL NOT INDICATE ANY OBVIS. ANY FOG/STRATUS WILL
DISSIPATE AFTER DAYBREAK AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MAINLY SCT CLOUDS
THEREAFTER.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

EXPECT A MAINLY VFR FORECAST INTO SUNDAY. MOISTURE GRADUALLY
INCREASES BY THE WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE.
TYPICAL LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING MVFR TO LIFR FOG THREAT AT
LWB/BCB/LYH THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/CF
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...MBS/AMS



000
FXUS61 KRNK 271733
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
133 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
WITH A FRONT TRAILING UP THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT THURSDAY...

QUIET DAY ACROSS THE REGION. SCT TO BKN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. HELD
TEMPERATURES IN CHECK WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS THE NW NC MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE HOWEVER WITH LITTLE FORCING PRESENT HAVE KEPT
POPS LOW.

AS OF 300 AM EDT THURSDAY...

SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER EARLY
THIS MORNING. FOG WAS ALREADY DEVELOPING IN AREA THAT REMAINED
CLEAR. MSAS ANALYSIS INDICATED A LARGE SPREAD IN SURFACE DEW
POINTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM AROUND 50 IN SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTHEAST OF DANVILLE.

AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES EAST TODAY AND
A COASTAL TROF REMAINS ALONG THE CAROLINAS...SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST. THIS KEEP HIGHER DEW
POINTS OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.

HAVE TRIMMED BACK PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHWEST
COUNTY WARNING AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ASIDE FROM AN
EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND...LITTLE FORCING IS EXPECTED
TODAY.

STAYED CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY AND LOWS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT THURSDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AFFECTING THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THE PAST
FEW DAYS WILL FILL AND RETROGRADE WESTWARD ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC TO COME INCREASINGLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING NUDGING IN FROM THE ATLANTIC.

ON FRIDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NORTHEASTERLY IN THE MORNING TO
EAST SOUTHEASTERLY LATER IN THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE
OF NEW ENGLAND. THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL OPEN OUR AREA TO MARINE
AIR...WHICH WILL RESULT IN INCREASED CLOUDS AREAWIDE...AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AS THE MOISTURE IS
FORCED UPSLOPE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 70S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE LOW
80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR SATURDAY...SIMILAR
WEATHER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED...ALBEIT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. INCREASED
INFLUENCE FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL HELP SATURDAY AFTERNOON
HIGHS WARM 2 TO 3 DEGREES OVER THOSE OF FRIDAY.

FOR SUNDAY...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH WILL
LIFT A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN...RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF
OUR AREA.

AS MOISTURE CREEPS BACK INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...EXPECT
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO BECOME INCREASINGLY MILD EACH NIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO THE LOW 60S MOST LOCATIONS
FRIDAY NIGHT...WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S AREAWIDE BY SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS ON
MONDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKENING RIDGING TO THE EAST. GIVEN
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW...WILL MAINTAIN DIURNAL OROGRAPHIC DRIVEN
CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST...BUT GIVEN PROGGED WEAK INSTABILITY AND
WEAK UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST...COULD BE
MORE WIDESPREAD IF A WEAK WAVE DOES SLIDE UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

UPPER RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN BY MID WEEK AIDED BY SUBSIDENCE
TO THE NORTH PER THE PROBABLE ARRIVAL OF ERIKA OVER FLORIDA. THUS
WILL KEEP MORE ISOLATED MOUNTAIN CONVECTION FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS IN PLACE. OTHERWISE WILL BE RETURNING
TO QUITE A WARM/MUGGY SCENARIO THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS MOSTLY
80S AND POSSIBLY NEAR 90 SE...AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT THURSDAY...

A RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WITH SUBTLE FEATURES TO CONTEND WITH
THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING BY TO
OUR NORTH AND GIVING US LIGHT ELY/NELY WINDS...WHILE A PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN FEATURING WEAK TROFING ALOFT WILL KEEP SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY
FLOWING THROUGH THE REGION. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OROGRAPHIC
FORCING ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO GENERATE A MOSTLY VFR
CEILING...BUT BELIEVE ANY SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED AND NOT MERIT A
MENTION IN TAFS AT KLWB/KBLF/KBCB. EXPECT SITES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
TO BE DRY WITH SCT/V/BKN VFR CLOUDS.

TONIGHT SHOULD BE ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. THIS SHOULD GENERATE LIFR CONDITIONS AT KLWB WITH THIN FOG AND
SCT STRATUS FOR KBLF/KBCB. THERE MAY BE SOME THIN FOG ALSO AT KLYH AND
KDAN BUT BELIEVE PROBABILITY IS LOW ENOUGH AVOID USING A TEMPO GROUP
TOWARD DAYBREAK SO WILL NOT INDICATE ANY OBVIS. ANY FOG/STRATUS WILL
DISSIPATE AFTER DAYBREAK AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MAINLY SCT CLOUDS
THEREAFTER.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

EXPECT A MAINLY VFR FORECAST INTO SUNDAY. MOISTURE GRADUALLY
INCREASES BY THE WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE.
TYPICAL LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING MVFR TO LIFR FOG THREAT AT
LWB/BCB/LYH THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/CF
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...MBS/AMS



000
FXUS61 KRNK 271733
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
133 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
WITH A FRONT TRAILING UP THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT THURSDAY...

QUIET DAY ACROSS THE REGION. SCT TO BKN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. HELD
TEMPERATURES IN CHECK WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS THE NW NC MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE HOWEVER WITH LITTLE FORCING PRESENT HAVE KEPT
POPS LOW.

AS OF 300 AM EDT THURSDAY...

SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER EARLY
THIS MORNING. FOG WAS ALREADY DEVELOPING IN AREA THAT REMAINED
CLEAR. MSAS ANALYSIS INDICATED A LARGE SPREAD IN SURFACE DEW
POINTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM AROUND 50 IN SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTHEAST OF DANVILLE.

AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES EAST TODAY AND
A COASTAL TROF REMAINS ALONG THE CAROLINAS...SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST. THIS KEEP HIGHER DEW
POINTS OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.

HAVE TRIMMED BACK PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHWEST
COUNTY WARNING AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ASIDE FROM AN
EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND...LITTLE FORCING IS EXPECTED
TODAY.

STAYED CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY AND LOWS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT THURSDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AFFECTING THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THE PAST
FEW DAYS WILL FILL AND RETROGRADE WESTWARD ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC TO COME INCREASINGLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING NUDGING IN FROM THE ATLANTIC.

ON FRIDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NORTHEASTERLY IN THE MORNING TO
EAST SOUTHEASTERLY LATER IN THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE
OF NEW ENGLAND. THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL OPEN OUR AREA TO MARINE
AIR...WHICH WILL RESULT IN INCREASED CLOUDS AREAWIDE...AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AS THE MOISTURE IS
FORCED UPSLOPE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 70S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE LOW
80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR SATURDAY...SIMILAR
WEATHER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED...ALBEIT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. INCREASED
INFLUENCE FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL HELP SATURDAY AFTERNOON
HIGHS WARM 2 TO 3 DEGREES OVER THOSE OF FRIDAY.

FOR SUNDAY...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH WILL
LIFT A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN...RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF
OUR AREA.

AS MOISTURE CREEPS BACK INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...EXPECT
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO BECOME INCREASINGLY MILD EACH NIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO THE LOW 60S MOST LOCATIONS
FRIDAY NIGHT...WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S AREAWIDE BY SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS ON
MONDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKENING RIDGING TO THE EAST. GIVEN
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW...WILL MAINTAIN DIURNAL OROGRAPHIC DRIVEN
CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST...BUT GIVEN PROGGED WEAK INSTABILITY AND
WEAK UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST...COULD BE
MORE WIDESPREAD IF A WEAK WAVE DOES SLIDE UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

UPPER RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN BY MID WEEK AIDED BY SUBSIDENCE
TO THE NORTH PER THE PROBABLE ARRIVAL OF ERIKA OVER FLORIDA. THUS
WILL KEEP MORE ISOLATED MOUNTAIN CONVECTION FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS IN PLACE. OTHERWISE WILL BE RETURNING
TO QUITE A WARM/MUGGY SCENARIO THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS MOSTLY
80S AND POSSIBLY NEAR 90 SE...AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT THURSDAY...

A RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WITH SUBTLE FEATURES TO CONTEND WITH
THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING BY TO
OUR NORTH AND GIVING US LIGHT ELY/NELY WINDS...WHILE A PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN FEATURING WEAK TROFING ALOFT WILL KEEP SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY
FLOWING THROUGH THE REGION. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OROGRAPHIC
FORCING ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO GENERATE A MOSTLY VFR
CEILING...BUT BELIEVE ANY SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED AND NOT MERIT A
MENTION IN TAFS AT KLWB/KBLF/KBCB. EXPECT SITES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
TO BE DRY WITH SCT/V/BKN VFR CLOUDS.

TONIGHT SHOULD BE ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. THIS SHOULD GENERATE LIFR CONDITIONS AT KLWB WITH THIN FOG AND
SCT STRATUS FOR KBLF/KBCB. THERE MAY BE SOME THIN FOG ALSO AT KLYH AND
KDAN BUT BELIEVE PROBABILITY IS LOW ENOUGH AVOID USING A TEMPO GROUP
TOWARD DAYBREAK SO WILL NOT INDICATE ANY OBVIS. ANY FOG/STRATUS WILL
DISSIPATE AFTER DAYBREAK AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MAINLY SCT CLOUDS
THEREAFTER.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

EXPECT A MAINLY VFR FORECAST INTO SUNDAY. MOISTURE GRADUALLY
INCREASES BY THE WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE.
TYPICAL LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING MVFR TO LIFR FOG THREAT AT
LWB/BCB/LYH THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/CF
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...MBS/AMS



000
FXUS61 KRNK 271733
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
133 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
WITH A FRONT TRAILING UP THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT THURSDAY...

QUIET DAY ACROSS THE REGION. SCT TO BKN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. HELD
TEMPERATURES IN CHECK WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS THE NW NC MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE HOWEVER WITH LITTLE FORCING PRESENT HAVE KEPT
POPS LOW.

AS OF 300 AM EDT THURSDAY...

SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER EARLY
THIS MORNING. FOG WAS ALREADY DEVELOPING IN AREA THAT REMAINED
CLEAR. MSAS ANALYSIS INDICATED A LARGE SPREAD IN SURFACE DEW
POINTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM AROUND 50 IN SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTHEAST OF DANVILLE.

AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES EAST TODAY AND
A COASTAL TROF REMAINS ALONG THE CAROLINAS...SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST. THIS KEEP HIGHER DEW
POINTS OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.

HAVE TRIMMED BACK PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHWEST
COUNTY WARNING AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ASIDE FROM AN
EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND...LITTLE FORCING IS EXPECTED
TODAY.

STAYED CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY AND LOWS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT THURSDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AFFECTING THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THE PAST
FEW DAYS WILL FILL AND RETROGRADE WESTWARD ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC TO COME INCREASINGLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING NUDGING IN FROM THE ATLANTIC.

ON FRIDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NORTHEASTERLY IN THE MORNING TO
EAST SOUTHEASTERLY LATER IN THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE
OF NEW ENGLAND. THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL OPEN OUR AREA TO MARINE
AIR...WHICH WILL RESULT IN INCREASED CLOUDS AREAWIDE...AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AS THE MOISTURE IS
FORCED UPSLOPE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 70S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE LOW
80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR SATURDAY...SIMILAR
WEATHER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED...ALBEIT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. INCREASED
INFLUENCE FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL HELP SATURDAY AFTERNOON
HIGHS WARM 2 TO 3 DEGREES OVER THOSE OF FRIDAY.

FOR SUNDAY...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH WILL
LIFT A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN...RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF
OUR AREA.

AS MOISTURE CREEPS BACK INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...EXPECT
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO BECOME INCREASINGLY MILD EACH NIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO THE LOW 60S MOST LOCATIONS
FRIDAY NIGHT...WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S AREAWIDE BY SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS ON
MONDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKENING RIDGING TO THE EAST. GIVEN
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW...WILL MAINTAIN DIURNAL OROGRAPHIC DRIVEN
CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST...BUT GIVEN PROGGED WEAK INSTABILITY AND
WEAK UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST...COULD BE
MORE WIDESPREAD IF A WEAK WAVE DOES SLIDE UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

UPPER RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN BY MID WEEK AIDED BY SUBSIDENCE
TO THE NORTH PER THE PROBABLE ARRIVAL OF ERIKA OVER FLORIDA. THUS
WILL KEEP MORE ISOLATED MOUNTAIN CONVECTION FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS IN PLACE. OTHERWISE WILL BE RETURNING
TO QUITE A WARM/MUGGY SCENARIO THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS MOSTLY
80S AND POSSIBLY NEAR 90 SE...AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT THURSDAY...

A RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WITH SUBTLE FEATURES TO CONTEND WITH
THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING BY TO
OUR NORTH AND GIVING US LIGHT ELY/NELY WINDS...WHILE A PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN FEATURING WEAK TROFING ALOFT WILL KEEP SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY
FLOWING THROUGH THE REGION. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OROGRAPHIC
FORCING ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO GENERATE A MOSTLY VFR
CEILING...BUT BELIEVE ANY SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED AND NOT MERIT A
MENTION IN TAFS AT KLWB/KBLF/KBCB. EXPECT SITES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
TO BE DRY WITH SCT/V/BKN VFR CLOUDS.

TONIGHT SHOULD BE ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. THIS SHOULD GENERATE LIFR CONDITIONS AT KLWB WITH THIN FOG AND
SCT STRATUS FOR KBLF/KBCB. THERE MAY BE SOME THIN FOG ALSO AT KLYH AND
KDAN BUT BELIEVE PROBABILITY IS LOW ENOUGH AVOID USING A TEMPO GROUP
TOWARD DAYBREAK SO WILL NOT INDICATE ANY OBVIS. ANY FOG/STRATUS WILL
DISSIPATE AFTER DAYBREAK AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MAINLY SCT CLOUDS
THEREAFTER.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

EXPECT A MAINLY VFR FORECAST INTO SUNDAY. MOISTURE GRADUALLY
INCREASES BY THE WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE.
TYPICAL LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING MVFR TO LIFR FOG THREAT AT
LWB/BCB/LYH THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/CF
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...MBS/AMS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 271643
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1243 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
WITH A FRONT TRAILING UP THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT THURSDAY...

QUIET DAY ACROSS THE REGION. SCT TO BKN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. HELD
TEMPERATURES IN CHECK WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS THE NW NC MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE HOWEVER WITH LITTLE FORCING PRESENT HAVE KEPT
POPS LOW.

AS OF 300 AM EDT THURSDAY...

SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER EARLY
THIS MORNING. FOG WAS ALREADY DEVELOPING IN AREA THAT REMAINED
CLEAR. MSAS ANALYSIS INDICATED A LARGE SPREAD IN SURFACE DEW
POINTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM AROUND 50 IN SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTHEAST OF DANVILLE.

AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES EAST TODAY AND
A COASTAL TROF REMAINS ALONG THE CAROLINAS...SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST. THIS KEEP HIGHER DEW
POINTS OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.

HAVE TRIMMED BACK PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHWEST
COUNTY WARNING AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ASIDE FROM AN
EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND...LITTLE FORCING IS EXPECTED
TODAY.

STAYED CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY AND LOWS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT THURSDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AFFECTING THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THE PAST
FEW DAYS WILL FILL AND RETROGRADE WESTWARD ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC TO COME INCREASINGLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING NUDGING IN FROM THE ATLANTIC.

ON FRIDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NORTHEASTERLY IN THE MORNING TO
EAST SOUTHEASTERLY LATER IN THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE
OF NEW ENGLAND. THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL OPEN OUR AREA TO MARINE
AIR...WHICH WILL RESULT IN INCREASED CLOUDS AREAWIDE...AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AS THE MOISTURE IS
FORCED UPSLOPE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 70S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE LOW
80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR SATURDAY...SIMILAR
WEATHER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED...ALBEIT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. INCREASED
INFLUENCE FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL HELP SATURDAY AFTERNOON
HIGHS WARM 2 TO 3 DEGREES OVER THOSE OF FRIDAY.

FOR SUNDAY...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH WILL
LIFT A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN...RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF
OUR AREA.

AS MOISTURE CREEPS BACK INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...EXPECT
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO BECOME INCREASINGLY MILD EACH NIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO THE LOW 60S MOST LOCATIONS
FRIDAY NIGHT...WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S AREAWIDE BY SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS ON
MONDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKENING RIDGING TO THE EAST. GIVEN
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW...WILL MAINTAIN DIURNAL OROGRAPHIC DRIVEN
CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST...BUT GIVEN PROGGED WEAK INSTABILITY AND
WEAK UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST...COULD BE
MORE WIDESPREAD IF A WEAK WAVE DOES SLIDE UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

UPPER RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN BY MID WEEK AIDED BY SUBSIDENCE
TO THE NORTH PER THE PROBABLE ARRIVAL OF ERIKA OVER FLORIDA. THUS
WILL KEEP MORE ISOLATED MOUNTAIN CONVECTION FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS IN PLACE. OTHERWISE WILL BE RETURNING
TO QUITE A WARM/MUGGY SCENARIO THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS MOSTLY
80S AND POSSIBLY NEAR 90 SE...AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT THURSDAY...

SATELLITE PICTURES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED SCATTERED TO
BROKEN 2-4KFT CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS
MORNING. LOCATIONS ON THE WEST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS...
INCLUDING AT KBLF AND KLWB...HAD LESS CLOUD COVER AND MVFR TO
LIFR FOG.

THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL EDGE VERY SLOWLY INLAND LATE THIS WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL TURN THE
WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST THEN EAST TODAY. DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY
RISE TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECT SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE RIDGES
ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA/TENNESSEE BORDER. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR BEFORE 15Z/11AM THIS MORNING AND THAT
TAF SITES WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WITH INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT...SOME
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A LOWER LAYER OF CLOUDS WILL SPREAD WEST
FROM THE COAST. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. FOR NOW HAVE ADDED
VFR CEILINGS AT 3500 FT IN AT KDAN LATE TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

EXPECT A MAINLY VFR FORECAST INTO SUNDAY. MOISTURE GRADUALLY
INCREASES BY THE WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE.
TYPICAL LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING MVFR TO LIFR FOG THREAT AT
LWB/BCB/LYH THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/CF
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...AMS/RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 271643
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1243 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
WITH A FRONT TRAILING UP THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT THURSDAY...

QUIET DAY ACROSS THE REGION. SCT TO BKN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. HELD
TEMPERATURES IN CHECK WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS THE NW NC MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE HOWEVER WITH LITTLE FORCING PRESENT HAVE KEPT
POPS LOW.

AS OF 300 AM EDT THURSDAY...

SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER EARLY
THIS MORNING. FOG WAS ALREADY DEVELOPING IN AREA THAT REMAINED
CLEAR. MSAS ANALYSIS INDICATED A LARGE SPREAD IN SURFACE DEW
POINTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM AROUND 50 IN SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTHEAST OF DANVILLE.

AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES EAST TODAY AND
A COASTAL TROF REMAINS ALONG THE CAROLINAS...SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST. THIS KEEP HIGHER DEW
POINTS OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.

HAVE TRIMMED BACK PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHWEST
COUNTY WARNING AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ASIDE FROM AN
EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND...LITTLE FORCING IS EXPECTED
TODAY.

STAYED CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY AND LOWS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT THURSDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AFFECTING THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THE PAST
FEW DAYS WILL FILL AND RETROGRADE WESTWARD ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC TO COME INCREASINGLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING NUDGING IN FROM THE ATLANTIC.

ON FRIDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NORTHEASTERLY IN THE MORNING TO
EAST SOUTHEASTERLY LATER IN THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE
OF NEW ENGLAND. THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL OPEN OUR AREA TO MARINE
AIR...WHICH WILL RESULT IN INCREASED CLOUDS AREAWIDE...AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AS THE MOISTURE IS
FORCED UPSLOPE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 70S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE LOW
80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR SATURDAY...SIMILAR
WEATHER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED...ALBEIT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. INCREASED
INFLUENCE FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL HELP SATURDAY AFTERNOON
HIGHS WARM 2 TO 3 DEGREES OVER THOSE OF FRIDAY.

FOR SUNDAY...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH WILL
LIFT A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN...RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF
OUR AREA.

AS MOISTURE CREEPS BACK INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...EXPECT
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO BECOME INCREASINGLY MILD EACH NIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO THE LOW 60S MOST LOCATIONS
FRIDAY NIGHT...WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S AREAWIDE BY SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS ON
MONDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKENING RIDGING TO THE EAST. GIVEN
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW...WILL MAINTAIN DIURNAL OROGRAPHIC DRIVEN
CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST...BUT GIVEN PROGGED WEAK INSTABILITY AND
WEAK UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST...COULD BE
MORE WIDESPREAD IF A WEAK WAVE DOES SLIDE UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

UPPER RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN BY MID WEEK AIDED BY SUBSIDENCE
TO THE NORTH PER THE PROBABLE ARRIVAL OF ERIKA OVER FLORIDA. THUS
WILL KEEP MORE ISOLATED MOUNTAIN CONVECTION FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS IN PLACE. OTHERWISE WILL BE RETURNING
TO QUITE A WARM/MUGGY SCENARIO THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS MOSTLY
80S AND POSSIBLY NEAR 90 SE...AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT THURSDAY...

SATELLITE PICTURES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED SCATTERED TO
BROKEN 2-4KFT CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS
MORNING. LOCATIONS ON THE WEST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS...
INCLUDING AT KBLF AND KLWB...HAD LESS CLOUD COVER AND MVFR TO
LIFR FOG.

THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL EDGE VERY SLOWLY INLAND LATE THIS WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL TURN THE
WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST THEN EAST TODAY. DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY
RISE TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECT SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE RIDGES
ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA/TENNESSEE BORDER. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR BEFORE 15Z/11AM THIS MORNING AND THAT
TAF SITES WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WITH INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT...SOME
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A LOWER LAYER OF CLOUDS WILL SPREAD WEST
FROM THE COAST. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. FOR NOW HAVE ADDED
VFR CEILINGS AT 3500 FT IN AT KDAN LATE TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

EXPECT A MAINLY VFR FORECAST INTO SUNDAY. MOISTURE GRADUALLY
INCREASES BY THE WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE.
TYPICAL LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING MVFR TO LIFR FOG THREAT AT
LWB/BCB/LYH THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/CF
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...AMS/RAB



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