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000
FXUS61 KRNK 220444
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1244 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST AND
OFF THE DELMARVA COAST BY WEDNESDAY. THIS CYCLONE WILL STRENGTHEN
INTO A NOR-EASTER THAT WILL PELT NEW ENGLAND WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.
BACKLASH FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FELT ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY IN THE FORM OF CONSIDERABLY CLOUDY COOL WEATHER ALONG
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. A MODERATING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER
THE WEEKEND AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...REPLACED
BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING WARMING CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND...AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE LAST WEEK OF
OCTOBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1243 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. SHORTWAVES PIVOTING AROUND THE LOW CENTER TRIGGER
SCATTERED SHOWERS. INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND EAST TO
MATCH UP BETTER WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDS. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES
WITH SFC OBS AND SHAPED TRENDS TOWARDS LAV GUIDANCE. MORE LATER
THIS MORNING...


AS OF 945 PM EDT TUESDAY...

ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWNWARD ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN THE NEAR TERM AS
THEY ARE COOLING OFF MUCH QUICKER THAN ANTICIPATED. LIGHT RAIN
CONTINUES ACROSS SE WV...AND MORE SCATTERED ACROSS THE NRV AND
ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS. AS ANTICIPATED PRECIP AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
LIGHT...WITH JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS ACROSS SE WV. ALL OTHER
PREVIOUS FORECAST DETAILS REMAIN INTACT.

AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA WITH A COLD FRONT
TRAILING SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE FRONT
WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING PRODUCING A FEW
SHOWERS...BUT THE GREATER IMPACT WILL BE FOR AREAS NORTHEAST OF
OUR REGION WHERE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE PER THE
DEVELOPING/STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA.
AS THE LOW PASSES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT...THE CYCLONE IS PROGGED
TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY...YIELDING TO SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OF ABOUT
10MB IN 12 HOURS ONCE IT PASSES OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. THIS RAPID
STRENGTHENING WILL RESULT IN A NOR-EASTER THAT WILL PELT NEW
ENGLAND WITH HEAVY RAIN AND WIND. FOR OUR REGION...WE WILL BE ON
THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE STORM...THE DRY SIDE...SO THE BIGGEST
BY-PRODUCT WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND WIND. SOME THREAT FOR SHOWERS
WILL EXIST OVER THE VA/WV HIGHLANDS...AND ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES VCNTY OF BUCKINGHAM WHERE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE
STORM MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF PRECIP TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
ASIDE FROM THIS THREAT...THE GREATER INFLUENCE THAT MOST FOLKS
WITHIN OUR CWA SHOULD NOTICE WILL BE THE WIND. 85H WINDS ARE
PROGGED AROUND 40 KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE
INTO BREEZY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
MPH...AND 30 TO 35 MPH IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL BE COOL...BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER AND MIXING FROM THE WIND. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND 60 IN THE PIEDMONT...
CLOUD COVER AND LOWERING THICKNESSES FROM THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE
PUTTING A DAMPER ON ANY CONTRIBUTION FROM SOLAR INSOLATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

WE WILL BE WATCHING AN OCCLUDED LOW/NOR-EASTER DRIFT OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. SHORT WAVES PIVOTING
AROUND THIS LOW WILL PERIODICALLY TRACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED BUT COULD SEE A PASSING SHOWER OR TWO
ACROSS THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AND ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. MOST NOTABLE WILL BE A PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION
BETWEEN THE NOR-EASTER AND APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST.
BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS LIKELY ALONG RIDGE TOPS AND POSSIBLY FOR
LOWER ELEVATIONS IF SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. MOST CLEAR SKIES
POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF RNK CWA (BLUEFIELD TO GRAYSON
COUNTY). DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD ALSO KEEP THE EAST MOSTLY CLEAR
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHSIDE...BUT THE WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG
EAST AS IT WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. CLOUDS BEGIN TO CLEAR ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.
ANY WINDS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY WILL REMAIN ALOFT AND ABOVE THE
INVERSION.

MODELS ARE BRINGING ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND OVER THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL HAVE LESS
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THAN THE NOR-EASTER...THEREFORE RAINFALL
CHANCES ARE EVEN LOWER BUT NOT ZERO ALONG WESTERN SLOPES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HEIGHTS
BUILDING THERE AFTER.

COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE MID ATLANTIC LOW/NOR-
EASTER WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN NORMAL THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY DIP INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
EACH NIGHT WHILE MIXING WILL DETER FROST FROM FORMING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER MOST OF THE CONUS...FROM
THE ROCKIES MOUNTAINS TO THE EAST COAST...STARTING SATURDAY. THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE ALIGNED OVER THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY.
BASICALLY...HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE EACH DAY WHICH TRANSLATES INTO
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. HEIGHTS
BEGIN TO LOWER ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ACCOMPANY RIDGING ALOFT THIS WEEKEND.
THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
US...ESSENTIALLY BLOCKING ANY RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF. WITH NO
LIFT AND/OR MOISTURE...HIGH CONFIDENCE TO RUN WITH ZERO POPS INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT TUESDAY...

CLOSED LOW OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL DRIFT OFF THE DELMARVA COAST
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE REGION THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS FEATURE WILL
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NOR-EASTER THAT WILL PELT THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST WITH HEAVY RAIN A WIND...AND WILL MOST LIKELY IMPACT
AIR TRAFFIC FOR MANY OF THE NEW ENGLAND TERMINALS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WORK WEEK.

FOR OUR LOCAL REGION...BKN-OVC CLOUD BASES WILL BE COMMON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND MVFR ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE VA/NC
HIGHLANDS...AND ACROSS VIRGINIA NORTH OF A KROA/KLYH
LINE...HIGHWAY 460. LITTLE OR NO SHOWER THREAT IS EXPECTED FROM
THE VA/NC STATE LINE AND POINTS SOUTH.

WITH THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE TO OUR NORTHEAST...BACKLASH WILL BE
FELT THROUGHOUT OUR REGION IN THE FORM OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
3000-5000FT AGL WINDS OF 40 KTS ARE PROGGED FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS. 20-30KT
SURFACE GUSTS WILL BE COMMON.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER ABOUT THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA BY FRIDAY. IMPACTS...ESP FROM
WIND...WILL CONTINUE IN ADDITION TO WIDELY SCATTERED -SHRA ACROSS
THE VA/WV HIGHLANDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. MVFR
CLOUDS WILL THUS BE COMMON ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA TO LYH TO DAN CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY-SUNDAY. WINDS MAY CONTINUE
TO BE A CONCERN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
FROM THE WEST.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...CF/KK/PM
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...DS/PM



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000
FXUS61 KLWX 220354
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1154 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

POPS IN THE NERN PART OF THE FCST AREA WERE INCRSD DUE TO ONGOING
RA. NO FLD THREAT.

PRVS DSCN...

LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING.
NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE MOVED INTO THE REGION AS PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO RISE BEHIND THE LOW. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC TONIGHT. THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS FEATURE...COOLER AIR
ALOFT AND VORTICITY ADVECTION HAS MADE FOR AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TODAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVED WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. ACTIVITY WAS CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAIN AND
SMALL HAIL. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LED TO INCREASED COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AS WELL. AS OF 00Z...THE PRESSURE SURGE WAS AT THE WATERS AND
GUSTS UP TO 25KTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. WINDS BEHIND THE SURGE ARE EXPECTED
TO LESSEN TONIGHT BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE AS THE
SFC LOW MOVES TO THE EAST. NW WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND LIMIT THE FORMATION OF
FOG DEVELOPMENT.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER LOW
SPINS OVER THE REGION...MORE SHOWERS WILL ENTER THE REGION BUT THE
COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN EARLIER. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMTS OF A
QUARTER INCH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE UPSLOPE REGION AS AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL LEAD TO
CONSTANT LIFT.

LOWS TONIGHT RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S IN THE HIGHLANDS TO THE LOW
50S ALONG AND EAST OF I-95.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
REACHES THE GULF STREAM. WINDS STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 15-20 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRENGTHENING
LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WRAPAROUND RAINFALL
LIKELY AT TIMES OVER EASTERN MD AND PORTIONS OF VA. UPSLOPE RAIN
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL FAVOR LIQUID RAIN OVER MOST
OF THE HIGHLANDS...BUT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN GRANT...PENDLETON
AND HIGHLAND MAY SEE SNOW MIXED IN. LOW TEMPS IN THE 40S ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TIME OF PARTIAL ECLIPSE FOR DC THU - 5:52 PM TO 6:17 PM. BALT IS
5:51 TO 6:15. QUSTN WL BE WHETHER IT WL BE VSBL DUE TO CLDS...
WHICH SHOULD BE ON THE WANE DURG THIS TIME PD.

PRVS DSCN...

BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY THURSDAY AS SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE  SLOWLY SLIDES UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. DOWNSLOPING OF
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ELIMINATE POPS LOCALLY DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...WHERE UPSLOPE
RAIN IS POSSIBLE...AND THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA ALONG
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO FILL IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE
WEAKER FRIDAY. THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL SEE QUIET/DRY
WEATHER AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING KEEPS PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT TEMPS
THIS WEEKEND TO BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
MID-60S...AND TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK TO BE JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE TERMINALS TONIGHT AND NW WINDS
5-10KTS ARE EXPECTED. DCA/MTN WILL LIKELY SEE GUSTS UP TO 20KTS
OVERNIGHT. SHRA WILL MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT IMPACTING DCA/BWI/MTN.
SOME SHOWERS ARE HEAVY RESULTING IN REDUCED VSBYS. THEY WILL
LIKELY STAY ABOVE IFR CONDITIONS. AS THE RAIN MOVES AWY FROM THE
TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE IN. THE WIND FIELD ALOFT WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND ONLY ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

NW WINDS 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20KTS ARE EXPECTED EARLY WED
MORNING. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. GUSTY NW WINDS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT IAD/DCA/BWI/MTN BY
WED AFTERNOON.

THU...VFR. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25KT.

FRI...VFR. NW WINDS AROUND 1OKT.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OCCURRENCE OF AVIATION HAZARDS OVER THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.


CLDY WED NGT BUT CIGS XPCTD TO BE VFR. BRZY NW WINDS XPCTD WED NGT
AND THU. VFR/NO PROBS FRI AND SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
PRESSURE SURGE MOVED ACROSS THE WATERS THIS EVENING AND GUSTY NW
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT. A SCA IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE
WATERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR GALES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OFF THE NJ/DELMARVA SHORE. MODEL FORECASTS ARE
MARGINAL FOR GALES...SO FOR NOW OPTED TO EXTEND SCA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS LIKELY TO REACH 30KT IN SOME PARTS OF
CHES BAY AT LEAST.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES UP THE NORTHEAST COAST. WINDS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE WATERS...THOUGH CURRENTLY THINK THEY
WILL STAY MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20 KNOT RANGE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...KS/HAS/CEB







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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220254
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1054 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY... FOLLOWED BY DRIER
CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE INITIAL COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE
MIDDLE BAY WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHEAST INTO HAMPTON ROADS AND THEN
NE NC. OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS TO 20 TO 30 MPH HAVE OCCURRED WITH
THE FRONT THOUGH THESE GUSTS HAVE BEEN BRIEF AND ONLY RECORDED AT
A FEW STATIONS. A STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SEEN ON WV IMAGERY
OVER WEST VA AND PUSHING INTO WESTERN VA CONTINUES TO DIVE SE
AROUND THE BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER LOW. THIS WILL IN TURN
ALLOW A CLOSED LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT. THE
INITIAL SHOWERS WHICH DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE ARE
PUSHING ACROSS THE BAY AND ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE WAVE ARE ALSO MOVING ACROSS THE TIDEWATER
INTO HAMPTON ROADS AND ACROSS NE NC. RAIN ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL
VA HAS DECREASED AND ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SPRINKLES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS CENTRAL VA FOR THE NEST SEVERAL HOURS. THE BEST FORCING FOR
SHOWERS THROUGH 06Z WILL BE ACROSS THE EAST. SOME HI RES WRF RUNS
AND THE NAM12 SUGGEST MORE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS RE-DEVELOPING
ACROSS CENTRAL VA BEFORE DAYBREAK AND LINGERING INTO MID MORNING.
HAVE TWEAKED POPS FOR WED MORNING INCREASING CHC POPS ACROSS
CENTRAL VA THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 40S...TO
LOW/MID 50S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND OFFSHORE WED. AFTER A BRIEF
INCREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THERE
WILL BE A FAIRLY SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE PIEDMONT AND
THE THE COAST. THE ERN SHORE IN PARTICULAR APPEARS TO BE SET FOR
A CLOUDY/COOL DAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. GIVEN RECENT MODEL TRENDS
HAVE PULLED THE CHC POPS FURTHER WEST WED MORNING TO COVER CENTRAL
VA. BELIEVE WIDELY SCT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AS
THE UPPER LOW WRAPS UP OVER THE AREA. WILL KEEP HIGHER POPS
LIMITED TO THE TO THE EASTERN VA WITH LIKELY 60-70% POPS ON THE
EASTERN SHORE. FAVOR COOLER END OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS WED...MID
60S SW TO AROUND 60/LOWER 60S NE. OTHER FEATURE TO NOTE WILL BE
THE INCREASING NW WINDS BY AFTN AS THE SFC LOW INTENSIFIES FAIRLY
RAPIDLY OFF THE COAST. GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
LATER AFTN/EVENING (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST).

THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE WED NIGHT INTO THU...LOCATING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 00Z FRIDAY. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWER CHANCES
BY THEN WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN SHORE (20%). DECREASING
CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE
LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. COOL AGAIN THU WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 60-65.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT IN BETWEEN SUB 1000 MB SFC LOW
OFF LONG ISLAND AND 1020 MB SFC HIGH OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY. EXPECT
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACRS THE ERN
SHORE...15-25 MPH ELSEWHERE.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON
FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR SUNSHINE...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND MILDER
TEMPS. HIGH FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPR 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS WELL TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY
MIDWEEK. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY (PERHAPS WARMER TUESDAY). LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
10 PM UPDATE...UPDATED SEVERAL TAFS FOR RECENT TRENDS AND TO
INCLUDE IFR AT MOST LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY MORNING. CLOUD BASES ARE
LOWERING WITH MVFR DEVELOPING MORE QUICKLY THAN EXPECTED AND NAM
MOS IS LOOKING MORE REASONABLE.

A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE CWA WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTY N/NW WINDS OCCUR BRIEFLY BEHIND THE FRONT. A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS (EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS) ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AS AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS
THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECT SHOWERS AND CEILINGS TO LOWER DURING THIS
TIME TO AT LEAST MVFR. DID NOT GO AS LOW AS NAM WHICH HAS MOST
LOCATIONS GOING TO IFR. WILL REEVALUATE FOR THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.
CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE TOWARD MIDDAY. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THE EASTERN SHORE.

OUTLOOK...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA WED EVENING AS THE
SURFACE HIGH NUDGES FARTHER EAST. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST
OF THE FA THROUGH FRIDAY WITH STRONGER NW WINDS ALONG THE COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.MARINE...
AS A COLD FRONT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE MARINE
AREA...WINDS HAVE INCREASED TEMPORARILY. MWS ISSUED FOR BRIEF
GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS IN THE CHESAPEAKE AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
VIRGINIA RIVERS. THESE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BEFORE INCREASING ONCE
AGAIN DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...
WITH LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFYING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS
...BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND
CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST WIND IS
GENERALLY 20-25KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT FOR MOST OF THE
MARINE AREA. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR LOW-END GALE CONDITIONS LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING PRIMARILY SUPPORTED BY
THE 21/12Z NAM. AT THIS TIME THE CURRENT SCA WAS MAINTAINED GIVEN
THE POTENTIAL FOR ONLY MARGINAL GALE CONDITIONS...WITH AN ONSET
GENERALLY AT OR BEYOND 24HR FROM 4PM TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH SCA
CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE OCEAN. WITH THE
FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FROM THE NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED
AT 5-7 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO
10-15KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 5 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ630>638-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/JAO
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ/LSA







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220254
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1054 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY... FOLLOWED BY DRIER
CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE INITIAL COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE
MIDDLE BAY WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHEAST INTO HAMPTON ROADS AND THEN
NE NC. OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS TO 20 TO 30 MPH HAVE OCCURRED WITH
THE FRONT THOUGH THESE GUSTS HAVE BEEN BRIEF AND ONLY RECORDED AT
A FEW STATIONS. A STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SEEN ON WV IMAGERY
OVER WEST VA AND PUSHING INTO WESTERN VA CONTINUES TO DIVE SE
AROUND THE BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER LOW. THIS WILL IN TURN
ALLOW A CLOSED LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT. THE
INITIAL SHOWERS WHICH DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE ARE
PUSHING ACROSS THE BAY AND ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE WAVE ARE ALSO MOVING ACROSS THE TIDEWATER
INTO HAMPTON ROADS AND ACROSS NE NC. RAIN ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL
VA HAS DECREASED AND ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SPRINKLES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS CENTRAL VA FOR THE NEST SEVERAL HOURS. THE BEST FORCING FOR
SHOWERS THROUGH 06Z WILL BE ACROSS THE EAST. SOME HI RES WRF RUNS
AND THE NAM12 SUGGEST MORE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS RE-DEVELOPING
ACROSS CENTRAL VA BEFORE DAYBREAK AND LINGERING INTO MID MORNING.
HAVE TWEAKED POPS FOR WED MORNING INCREASING CHC POPS ACROSS
CENTRAL VA THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 40S...TO
LOW/MID 50S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND OFFSHORE WED. AFTER A BRIEF
INCREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THERE
WILL BE A FAIRLY SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE PIEDMONT AND
THE THE COAST. THE ERN SHORE IN PARTICULAR APPEARS TO BE SET FOR
A CLOUDY/COOL DAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. GIVEN RECENT MODEL TRENDS
HAVE PULLED THE CHC POPS FURTHER WEST WED MORNING TO COVER CENTRAL
VA. BELIEVE WIDELY SCT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AS
THE UPPER LOW WRAPS UP OVER THE AREA. WILL KEEP HIGHER POPS
LIMITED TO THE TO THE EASTERN VA WITH LIKELY 60-70% POPS ON THE
EASTERN SHORE. FAVOR COOLER END OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS WED...MID
60S SW TO AROUND 60/LOWER 60S NE. OTHER FEATURE TO NOTE WILL BE
THE INCREASING NW WINDS BY AFTN AS THE SFC LOW INTENSIFIES FAIRLY
RAPIDLY OFF THE COAST. GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
LATER AFTN/EVENING (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST).

THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE WED NIGHT INTO THU...LOCATING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 00Z FRIDAY. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWER CHANCES
BY THEN WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN SHORE (20%). DECREASING
CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE
LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. COOL AGAIN THU WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 60-65.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT IN BETWEEN SUB 1000 MB SFC LOW
OFF LONG ISLAND AND 1020 MB SFC HIGH OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY. EXPECT
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACRS THE ERN
SHORE...15-25 MPH ELSEWHERE.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON
FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR SUNSHINE...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND MILDER
TEMPS. HIGH FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPR 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS WELL TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY
MIDWEEK. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY (PERHAPS WARMER TUESDAY). LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
10 PM UPDATE...UPDATED SEVERAL TAFS FOR RECENT TRENDS AND TO
INCLUDE IFR AT MOST LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY MORNING. CLOUD BASES ARE
LOWERING WITH MVFR DEVELOPING MORE QUICKLY THAN EXPECTED AND NAM
MOS IS LOOKING MORE REASONABLE.

A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE CWA WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTY N/NW WINDS OCCUR BRIEFLY BEHIND THE FRONT. A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS (EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS) ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AS AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS
THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECT SHOWERS AND CEILINGS TO LOWER DURING THIS
TIME TO AT LEAST MVFR. DID NOT GO AS LOW AS NAM WHICH HAS MOST
LOCATIONS GOING TO IFR. WILL REEVALUATE FOR THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.
CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE TOWARD MIDDAY. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THE EASTERN SHORE.

OUTLOOK...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA WED EVENING AS THE
SURFACE HIGH NUDGES FARTHER EAST. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST
OF THE FA THROUGH FRIDAY WITH STRONGER NW WINDS ALONG THE COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.MARINE...
AS A COLD FRONT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE MARINE
AREA...WINDS HAVE INCREASED TEMPORARILY. MWS ISSUED FOR BRIEF
GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS IN THE CHESAPEAKE AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
VIRGINIA RIVERS. THESE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BEFORE INCREASING ONCE
AGAIN DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...
WITH LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFYING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS
...BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND
CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST WIND IS
GENERALLY 20-25KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT FOR MOST OF THE
MARINE AREA. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR LOW-END GALE CONDITIONS LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING PRIMARILY SUPPORTED BY
THE 21/12Z NAM. AT THIS TIME THE CURRENT SCA WAS MAINTAINED GIVEN
THE POTENTIAL FOR ONLY MARGINAL GALE CONDITIONS...WITH AN ONSET
GENERALLY AT OR BEYOND 24HR FROM 4PM TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH SCA
CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE OCEAN. WITH THE
FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FROM THE NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED
AT 5-7 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO
10-15KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 5 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ630>638-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/JAO
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ/LSA







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220150
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
950 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY... FOLLOWED BY DRIER
CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE INITIAL COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE
MIDDLE BAY WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHEAST INTO HAMPTON ROADS AND THEN
NE NC. OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS TO 20 TO 30 MPH HAVE OCCURRED WITH
THE FRONT THOUGH THESE GUSTS HAVE BEEN BRIEF AND ONLY RECORDED AT
A FEW STATIONS. A STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SEEN ON WV IMAGERY
OVER WEST VA AND PUSHING INTO WESTERN VA CONTINUES TO DIVE SE
AROUND THE BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER LOW. THIS WILL IN TURN
ALLOW A CLOSED LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT. THE
INITIAL SHOWERS WHICH DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE ARE
PUSHING ACROSS THE BAY AND ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE WAVE ARE ALSO MOVING ACROSS THE TIDEWATER
INTO HAMPTON ROADS AND ACROSS NE NC. RAIN ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL
VA HAS DECREASED AND ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SPRINKLES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS CENTRAL VA FOR THE NEST SEVERAL HOURS. THE BEST FORCING FOR
SHOWERS THROUGH 06Z WILL BE ACROSS THE EAST. SOME HI RES WRF RUNS
AND THE NAM12 SUGGEST MORE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS RE-DEVELOPING
ACROSS CENTRAL VA BEFORE DAYBREAK AND LINGERING INTO MID MORNING.
HAVE TWEAKED POPS FOR WED MORNING INCREASING CHC POPS ACROSS
CENTRAL VA THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 40S...TO
LOW/MID 50S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND OFFSHORE WED. AFTER A BRIEF
INCREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THERE
WILL BE A FAIRLY SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE PIEDMONT AND
THE THE COAST. THE ERN SHORE IN PARTICULAR APPEARS TO BE SET FOR
A CLOUDY/COOL DAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. GIVEN RECENT MODEL TRENDS
HAVE PULLED THE CHC POPS FURTHER WEST WED MORNING TO COVER CENTRAL
VA. BELIEVE WIDELY SCT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AS
THE UPPER LOW WRAPS UP OVER THE AREA. WILL KEEP HIGHER POPS
LIMITED TO THE TO THE EASTERN VA WITH LIKELY 60-70% POPS ON THE
EASTERN SHORE. FAVOR COOLER END OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS WED...MID
60S SW TO AROUND 60/LOWER 60S NE. OTHER FEATURE TO NOTE WILL BE
THE INCREASING NW WINDS BY AFTN AS THE SFC LOW INTENSIFIES FAIRLY
RAPIDLY OFF THE COAST. GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
LATER AFTN/EVENING (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST).

THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE WED NIGHT INTO THU...LOCATING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 00Z FRIDAY. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWER CHANCES
BY THEN WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN SHORE (20%). DECREASING
CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE
LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. COOL AGAIN THU WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 60-65.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT IN BETWEEN SUB 1000 MB SFC LOW
OFF LONG ISLAND AND 1020 MB SFC HIGH OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY. EXPECT
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACRS THE ERN
SHORE...15-25 MPH ELSEWHERE.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON
FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR SUNSHINE...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND MILDER
TEMPS. HIGH FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPR 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS WELL TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY
MIDWEEK. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY (PERHAPS WARMER TUESDAY). LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE CWA WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. GUSTY N/NW WINDS OCCUR BRIEFLY BEHIND THE FRONT. A PERIOD
OF SHOWERS (EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS) ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS AS AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS THROUGH THE
AREA. EXPECT SHOWERS AND CEILINGS TO LOWER DURING THIS TIME TO AT
LEAST MVFR. DID NOT GO AS LOW AS NAM WHICH HAS MOST LOCATIONS GOING
TO IFR. WILL REEVALUATE FOR THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. CONDITIONS SLOWLY
IMPROVE TOWARD MIDDAY. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THE
EASTERN SHORE.

OUTLOOK...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA WED EVENING AS THE
SURFACE HIGH NUDGES FARTHER EAST. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST
OF THE FA THROUGH FRIDAY WITH STRONGER NW WINDS ALONG THE COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...WITH
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFYING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE SCA
CONDITIONS...BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND
CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST WIND IS
GENERALLY 20-25KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT FOR MOST OF THE MARINE
AREA. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR LOW-END GALE CONDITIONS LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING PRIMARILY SUPPORTED BY
THE 21/12Z NAM. AT THIS TIME THE CURRENT SCA WAS MAINTAINED GIVEN
THE POTENTIAL FOR ONLY MARGINAL GALE CONDITIONS...WITH AN ONSET
GENERALLY AT OR BEYOND 24HR FROM 4PM TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH SCA
CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE OCEAN. WITH THE
FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FROM THE NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT
5-7 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15KT AND
SEAS SUBSIDING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 5 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ630>638-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/JAO
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ







000
FXUS61 KRNK 220146
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
946 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST AND
OFF THE DELMARVA COAST BY WEDNESDAY. THIS CYCLONE WILL STRENGTHEN
INTO A NOR-EASTER THAT WILL PELT NEW ENGLAND WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.
BACKLASH FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FELT ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY IN THE FORM OF CONSIDERABLY CLOUDY COOL WEATHER ALONG
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. A MODERATING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER
THE WEEKEND AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...REPLACED
BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING WARMING CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND...AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE LAST WEEK OF
OCTOBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 945 PM EDT TUESDAY...

ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWNWARD ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN THE NEAR TERM AS
THEY ARE COOLING OFF MUCH QUICKER THAN ANTICIPATED. LIGHT RAIN
CONTINUES ACROSS SE WV...AND MORE SCATTERED ACROSS THE NRV AND
ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS. AS ANTICIPATED PRECIP AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
LIGHT...WITH JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS ACROSS SE WV. ALL OTHER
PREVIOUS FORECAST DETAILS REMAIN INTACT.

AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA WITH A COLD FRONT
TRAILING SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE FRONT
WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING PRODUCING A FEW
SHOWERS...BUT THE GREATER IMPACT WILL BE FOR AREAS NORTHEAST OF
OUR REGION WHERE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE PER THE
DEVELOPING/STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA.
AS THE LOW PASSES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT...THE CYCLONE IS PROGGED
TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY...YIELDING TO SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OF ABOUT
10MB IN 12 HOURS ONCE IT PASSES OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. THIS RAPID
STRENGTHENING WILL RESULT IN A NOR-EASTER THAT WILL PELT NEW
ENGLAND WITH HEAVY RAIN AND WIND. FOR OUR REGION...WE WILL BE ON
THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE STORM...THE DRY SIDE...SO THE BIGGEST
BY-PRODUCT WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND WIND. SOME THREAT FOR SHOWERS
WILL EXIST OVER THE VA/WV HIGHLANDS...AND ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES VCNTY OF BUCKINGHAM WHERE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE
STORM MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF PRECIP TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
ASIDE FROM THIS THREAT...THE GREATER INFLUENCE THAT MOST FOLKS
WITHIN OUR CWA SHOULD NOTICE WILL BE THE WIND. 85H WINDS ARE
PROGGED AROUND 40 KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE
INTO BREEZY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
MPH...AND 30 TO 35 MPH IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL BE COOL...BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER AND MIXING FROM THE WIND. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND 60 IN THE PIEDMONT...
CLOUD COVER AND LOWERING THICKNESSES FROM THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE
PUTTING A DAMPER ON ANY CONTRIBUTION FROM SOLAR INSOLATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

WE WILL BE WATCHING AN OCCLUDED LOW/NOR-EASTER DRIFT OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. SHORT WAVES PIVOTING
AROUND THIS LOW WILL PERIODICALLY TRACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED BUT COULD SEE A PASSING SHOWER OR TWO
ACROSS THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AND ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. MOST NOTABLE WILL BE A PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION
BETWEEN THE NOR-EASTER AND APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST.
BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS LIKELY ALONG RIDGE TOPS AND POSSIBLY FOR
LOWER ELEVATIONS IF SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. MOST CLEAR SKIES
POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF RNK CWA (BLUEFIELD TO GRAYSON
COUNTY). DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD ALSO KEEP THE EAST MOSTLY CLEAR
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHSIDE...BUT THE WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG
EAST AS IT WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. CLOUDS BEGIN TO CLEAR ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.
ANY WINDS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY WILL REMAIN ALOFT AND ABOVE THE
INVERSION.

MODELS ARE BRINGING ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND OVER THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL HAVE LESS
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THAN THE NOR-EASTER...THEREFORE RAINFALL
CHANCES ARE EVEN LOWER BUT NOT ZERO ALONG WESTERN SLOPES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HEIGHTS
BUILDING THERE AFTER.

COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE MID ATLANTIC LOW/NOR-
EASTER WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN NORMAL THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY DIP INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
EACH NIGHT WHILE MIXING WILL DETER FROST FROM FORMING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER MOST OF THE CONUS...FROM
THE ROCKIES MOUNTAINS TO THE EAST COAST...STARTING SATURDAY. THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE ALIGNED OVER THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY.
BASICALLY...HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE EACH DAY WHICH TRANSLATES INTO
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. HEIGHTS
BEGIN TO LOWER ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ACCOMPANY RIDGING ALOFT THIS WEEKEND.
THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
US...ESSENTIALLY BLOCKING ANY RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF. WITH NO
LIFT AND/OR MOISTURE...HIGH CONFIDENCE TO RUN WITH ZERO POPS INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT TUESDAY...

CLOSED LOW OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL DRIFT OFF THE DELMARVA COAST
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE REGION THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS FEATURE WILL
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NOR-EASTER THAT WILL PELT THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST WITH HEAVY RAIN A WIND...AND WILL MOST LIKELY IMPACT
AIR TRAFFIC FOR MANY OF THE NEW ENGLAND TERMINALS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WORK WEEK.

FOR OUR LOCAL REGION...BKN-OVC CLOUD BASES WILL BE COMMON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND MVFR ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE VA/NC
HIGHLANDS...AND ACROSS VIRGINIA NORTH OF A KROA/KLYH
LINE...HIGHWAY 460. LITTLE OR NO SHOWER THREAT IS EXPECTED FROM
THE VA/NC STATE LINE AND POINTS SOUTH.

WITH THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE TO OUR NORTHEAST...BACKLASH WILL BE
FELT THROUGHOUT OUR REGION IN THE FORM OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
3000-5000FT AGL WINDS OF 40 KTS ARE PROGGED FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS. 20-30KT
SURFACE GUSTS WILL BE COMMON.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER ABOUT THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA BY FRIDAY. IMPACTS...ESP FROM
WIND...WILL CONTINUE IN ADDITION TO WIDELY SCATTERED -SHRA ACROSS
THE VA/WV HIGHLANDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. MVFR
CLOUDS WILL THUS BE COMMON ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA TO LYH TO DAN CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY-SUNDAY. WINDS MAY CONTINUE
TO BE A CONCERN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
FROM THE WEST.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...CF/PM
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...DS/PM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220134
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
934 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
EVENING...THEN PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY WHILE
SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY...
FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER SE
PA/SOUTHERN NJ WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW FROM THIS LOW INTO
SW VA. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING...CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. A STRONG SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY SEEN ON WV IMAGERY OVER THE OH VALLEY IS PROGGED TO
DIVE SE AROUND THE BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER LOW...REACHING
VA/NC OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL IN TURN ALLOW A CLOSED LOW TO DEVELOP
OVER THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT. AS THE SHORTWAVE/UPPER TROUGH
APPROACH LATE TODAY...EXPECT SHOWERS TO INITIALLY DEVELOP OVER NW
ZONES BEFORE SPREADING SOUTH/EAST OVERNIGHT. WILL CARRY 25-40%
POPS N-NW OF KRIC THROUGH 00Z. WITH THE LOW CUTTING OFF OVER US
TONIGHT...THE BEST FORCING FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS OR
HIGH-END CHANCE POPS (50-70%) ACROSS THE NORTHERN NECK/MIDDLE
PENINSULA ONTO THE EASTERN SHORE OVERNIGHT...DECREASING TO ~20
ACROSS SW ZONES (WHERE DRY CONDITIONS MAY PREVAIL). CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ELEVATED TSTM OR TWO (GIVEN STEEP H5 TO H7
LAPSE RATES OF 6.5 TO 7C)...BUT WILL PRECLUDE FROM FORECAST ATTM
GIVEN FAIRLY STABLE LOW LEVELS. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 40S...TO
LOW/MID 50S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND OFFSHORE WED. AFTER A BRIEF
INCREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE OVERNIGHT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS BECOME
FAIRLY DRY ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS AS THE TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION
SWING FARTHER OFFSHORE...HOWEVER A FAIRLY SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT
PROGGED ALONG THE COAST. THE ERN SHORE IN PARTICULAR APPEARS TO BE
SET FOR A CLOUDY/COOL DAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. WILL THEREFORE KEEP
CHC POPS (25-50%) LIMITED TO FAR EASTERN VA...WITH LIKELY 60-70%
POPS ON THE EASTERN SHORE. COULD END UP BEING DRY OVER FAR W/SW
ZONES. QPF AMOUNTS TONIGHT/WED WILL AVG 0.25-0.75" ON THE ERN
SHORE...GENLY ONLY AROUND .10" OR LESS ELSEWHERE. FAVOR COOLER END
OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS WED...MID 60S SW TO AROUND 60/LOWER 60S NE.
OTHER FEATURE TO NOTE WILL BE THE INCREASING NW WINDS BY AFTN AS
THE SFC LOW INTENSIFIES FAIRLY RAPIDLY OFF THE COAST. GUSTS TO
25-35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATER AFTN/EVENING (ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST).

THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE WED NIGHT INTO THU...LOCATING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 00Z FRIDAY. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWER CHANCES
BY THEN WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN SHORE (20%). DECREASING
CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE
LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. COOL AGAIN THU WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 60-65.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT IN BETWEEN SUB 1000 MB SFC LOW
OFF LONG ISLAND AND 1020 MB SFC HIGH OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY. EXPECT
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACRS THE ERN
SHORE...15-25 MPH ELSEWHERE.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON
FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR SUNSHINE...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND MILDER
TEMPS. HIGH FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPR 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS WELL TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY
MIDWEEK. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY (PERHAPS WARMER TUESDAY). LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE CWA WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. GUSTY N/NW WINDS OCCUR BRIEFLY BEHIND THE FRONT. A PERIOD
OF SHOWERS (EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS) ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS AS AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS THROUGH THE
AREA. EXPECT SHOWERS AND CEILINGS TO LOWER DURING THIS TIME TO AT
LEAST MVFR. DID NOT GO AS LOW AS NAM WHICH HAS MOST LOCATIONS GOING
TO IFR. WILL REEVALUATE FOR THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. CONDITIONS SLOWLY
IMPROVE TOWARD MIDDAY. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THE
EASTERN SHORE.

OUTLOOK...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA WED EVENING AS THE
SURFACE HIGH NUDGES FARTHER EAST. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST
OF THE FA THROUGH FRIDAY WITH STRONGER NW WINDS ALONG THE COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...WITH
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFYING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE SCA
CONDITIONS...BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND
CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST WIND IS
GENERALLY 20-25KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT FOR MOST OF THE MARINE
AREA. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR LOW-END GALE CONDITIONS LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING PRIMARILY SUPPORTED BY
THE 21/12Z NAM. AT THIS TIME THE CURRENT SCA WAS MAINTAINED GIVEN
THE POTENTIAL FOR ONLY MARGINAL GALE CONDITIONS...WITH AN ONSET
GENERALLY AT OR BEYOND 24HR FROM 4PM TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH SCA
CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE OCEAN. WITH THE
FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FROM THE NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT
5-7 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15KT AND
SEAS SUBSIDING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 5 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ630>638-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ







000
FXUS61 KLWX 220056
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
856 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING.
NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE MOVED INTO THE REGION AS PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO RISE BEHIND THE LOW. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC TONIGHT. THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS FEATURE...COOLER AIR
ALOFT AND VORTICITY ADVECTION HAS MADE FOR AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TODAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVED WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. ACTIVITY WAS CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAIN AND
SMALL HAIL. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LED TO INCREASED COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AS WELL. AS OF 00Z...THE PRESSURE SURGE WAS AT THE WATERS AND
GUSTS UP TO 25KTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. WINDS BEHIND THE SURGE ARE EXPECTED
TO LESSEN TONIGHT BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE AS THE
SFC LOW MOVES TO THE EAST. NW WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND LIMIT THE FORMATION OF
FOG DEVELOPMENT.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER LOW
SPINS OVER THE REGION...MORE SHOWERS WILL ENTER THE REGION BUT THE
COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN EARLIER. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMTS OF A
QUARTER INCH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE UPSLOPE REGION AS AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL LEAD TO
CONSTANT LIFT.

LOWS TONIGHT RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S IN THE HIGHLANDS TO THE LOW
50S ALONG AND EAST OF I-95.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
REACHES THE GULF STREAM. WINDS STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 15-20 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRENGTHENING
LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WRAPAROUND RAINFALL
LIKELY AT TIMES OVER EASTERN MD AND PORTIONS OF VA. UPSLOPE RAIN
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL FAVOR LIQUID RAIN OVER MOST
OF THE HIGHLANDS...BUT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN GRANT...PENDLETON
AND HIGHLAND MAY SEE SNOW MIXED IN. LOW TEMPS IN THE 40S ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY THURSDAY AS SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE  SLOWLY SLIDES UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. DOWNSLOPING OF
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ELIMINATE POPS LOCALLY DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...WHERE UPSLOPE
RAIN IS POSSIBLE...AND THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA ALONG
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO FILL IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE
WEAKER FRIDAY. THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL SEE QUIET/DRY
WEATHER AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING KEEPS PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT TEMPS
THIS WEEKEND TO BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
MID-60S...AND TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK TO BE JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE TERMINALS TONIGHT AND NW WINDS
5-10KTS ARE EXPECTED. DCA/MTN WILL LIKELY SEE GUSTS UP TO 20KTS
OVERNIGHT. SHRA WILL MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT IMPACTING DCA/BWI/MTN.
SOME SHOWERS ARE HEAVY RESULTING IN REDUCED VSBYS. THEY WILL
LIKELY STAY ABOVE IFR CONDITIONS. AS THE RAIN MOVES AWY FROM THE
TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE IN. THE WIND FIELD ALOFT WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND ONLY ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

NW WINDS 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20KTS ARE EXPECTED EARLY WED
MORNING. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. GUSTY NW WINDS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT IAD/DCA/BWI/MTN BY
WED AFTERNOON.

THU...VFR. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25KT.

FRI...VFR. NW WINDS AROUND 1OKT.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OCCURRENCE OF AVIATION HAZARDS OVER THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.


CLDY WED NGT BUT CIGS XPCTD TO BE VFR. BRZY NW WINDS XPCTD WED NGT
AND THU. VFR/NO PROBS FRI AND SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
PRESSURE SURGE MOVED ACROSS THE WATERS THIS EVENING AND GUSTY NW
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT. A SCA IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE
WATERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR GALES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OFF THE NJ/DELMARVA SHORE. MODEL FORECASTS ARE
MARGINAL FOR GALES...SO FOR NOW OPTED TO EXTEND SCA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS LIKELY TO REACH 30KT IN SOME PARTS OF
CHES BAY AT LEAST.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES UP THE NORTHEAST COAST. WINDS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE WATERS...THOUGH CURRENTLY THINK THEY
WILL STAY MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20 KNOT RANGE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     538>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ535>537.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KS
NEAR TERM...HAS/KS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...HAS/KS/CEB
MARINE...HAS/KS/CEB








000
FXUS61 KRNK 212335
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
735 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST AND
OFF THE DELMARVA COAST BY WEDNESDAY. THIS CYCLONE WILL STRENGTHEN
INTO A NOR-EASTER THAT WILL PELT NEW ENGLAND WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.
BACKLASH FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FELT ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY IN THE FORM OF CONSIDERABLY CLOUDY COOL WEATHER ALONG
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. A MODERATING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER
THE WEEKEND AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...REPLACED
BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING WARMING CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND...AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE LAST WEEK OF
OCTOBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA WITH A COLD FRONT
TRAILING SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE FRONT
WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING PRODUCING A FEW
SHOWERS...BUT THE GREATER IMPACT WILL BE FOR AREAS NORTHEAST OF
OUR REGION WHERE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE PER THE
DEVELOPING/STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA.
AS THE LOW PASSES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT...THE CYCLONE IS PROGGED
TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY...YIELDING TO SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OF ABOUT
10MB IN 12 HOURS ONCE IT PASSES OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. THIS RAPID
STRENGTHENING WILL RESULT IN A NOR-EASTER THAT WILL PELT NEW
ENGLAND WITH HEAVY RAIN AND WIND. FOR OUR REGION...WE WILL BE ON
THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE STORM...THE DRY SIDE...SO THE BIGGEST
BY-PRODUCT WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND WIND. SOME THREAT FOR SHOWERS
WILL EXIST OVER THE VA/WV HIGHLANDS...AND ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES VCNTY OF BUCKINGHAM WHERE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE
STORM MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF PRECIP TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
ASIDE FROM THIS THREAT...THE GREATER INFLUENCE THAT MOST FOLKS
WITHIN OUR CWA SHOULD NOTICE WILL BE THE WIND. 85H WINDS ARE
PROGGED AROUND 40 KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE
INTO BREEZY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
MPH...AND 30 TO 35 MPH IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL BE COOL...BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER AND MIXING FROM THE WIND. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND 60 IN THE PIEDMONT...
CLOUD COVER AND LOWERING THICKNESSES FROM THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE
PUTTING A DAMPER ON ANY CONTRIBUTION FROM SOLAR INSOLATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

WE WILL BE WATCHING AN OCCLUDED LOW/NOR-EASTER DRIFT OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. SHORT WAVES PIVOTING
AROUND THIS LOW WILL PERIODICALLY TRACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED BUT COULD SEE A PASSING SHOWER OR TWO
ACROSS THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AND ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. MOST NOTABLE WILL BE A PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION
BETWEEN THE NOR-EASTER AND APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST.
BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS LIKELY ALONG RIDGE TOPS AND POSSIBLY FOR
LOWER ELEVATIONS IF SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. MOST CLEAR SKIES
POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF RNK CWA (BLUEFIELD TO GRAYSON
COUNTY). DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD ALSO KEEP THE EAST MOSTLY CLEAR
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHSIDE...BUT THE WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG
EAST AS IT WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. CLOUDS BEGIN TO CLEAR ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.
ANY WINDS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY WILL REMAIN ALOFT AND ABOVE THE
INVERSION.

MODELS ARE BRINGING ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND OVER THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL HAVE LESS
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THAN THE NOR-EASTER...THEREFORE RAINFALL
CHANCES ARE EVEN LOWER BUT NOT ZERO ALONG WESTERN SLOPES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HEIGHTS
BUILDING THERE AFTER.

COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE MID ATLANTIC LOW/NOR-
EASTER WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN NORMAL THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY DIP INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
EACH NIGHT WHILE MIXING WILL DETER FROST FROM FORMING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER MOST OF THE CONUS...FROM
THE ROCKIES MOUNTAINS TO THE EAST COAST...STARTING SATURDAY. THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE ALIGNED OVER THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY.
BASICALLY...HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE EACH DAY WHICH TRANSLATES INTO
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. HEIGHTS
BEGIN TO LOWER ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ACCOMPANY RIDGING ALOFT THIS WEEKEND.
THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
US...ESSENTIALLY BLOCKING ANY RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF. WITH NO
LIFT AND/OR MOISTURE...HIGH CONFIDENCE TO RUN WITH ZERO POPS INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT TUESDAY...

CLOSED LOW OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL DRIFT OFF THE DELMARVA COAST
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE REGION THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS FEATURE WILL
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NOR-EASTER THAT WILL PELT THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST WITH HEAVY RAIN A WIND...AND WILL MOST LIKELY IMPACT
AIR TRAFFIC FOR MANY OF THE NEW ENGLAND TERMINALS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WORK WEEK.

FOR OUR LOCAL REGION...BKN-OVC CLOUD BASES WILL BE COMMON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND MVFR ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE VA/NC
HIGHLANDS...AND ACROSS VIRGINIA NORTH OF A KROA/KLYH
LINE...HIGHWAY 460. LITTLE OR NO SHOWER THREAT IS EXPECTED FROM
THE VA/NC STATE LINE AND POINTS SOUTH.

WITH THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE TO OUR NORTHEAST...BACKLASH WILL BE
FELT THROUGHOUT OUR REGION IN THE FORM OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
3000-5000FT AGL WINDS OF 40 KTS ARE PROGGED FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS. 20-30KT
SURFACE GUSTS WILL BE COMMON.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER ABOUT THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA BY FRIDAY. IMPACTS...ESP FROM
WIND...WILL CONTINUE IN ADDITION TO WIDELY SCATTERED -SHRA ACROSS
THE VA/WV HIGHLANDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. MVFR
CLOUDS WILL THUS BE COMMON ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA TO LYH TO DAN CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY-SUNDAY. WINDS MAY CONTINUE
TO BE A CONCERN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
FROM THE WEST.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...DS/PM




000
FXUS61 KLWX 212216
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
616 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS
EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATE...PRESSURE SURGE MOVING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND TOWARDS
THE WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SEE MARINE SECTION.

DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. BROAD CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL ALSO DROP INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION BY THIS EVENING...AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS
IT MOVES INTO THE TIDEWATER REGION OVERNIGHT.

COMBINATION OF COOL AIR ALOFT...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND
MARGINAL SURFACE INSTABILITY IS PRODUCING SCATTERED RAIN AND
SHOWERS OVER THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY...POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND
UPSTREAM ACROSS WV/PA AND OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH AROUND
500 J/KG OF SBCAPE...WILL HAVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME
ISOLATED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE
60S...WITH A FEW 70S NOTED IN THE VA PIEDMONT. COOLER TEMPS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS WHERE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN IS KEEPING TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 50S.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOWS MOVE
JUST TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. BASIN WIDE
RAIN AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS
OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME LOCAL AREAS MAY SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH
LOCALIZED PERIODS OF MORE MODERATE RAINFALL. STEADY BREEZE AROUND
5-10KT FROM THE NW CONTINUES AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THE
BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW INCREASES. LOWS TONIGHT RANGE FROM
THE LOW 40S IN THE HIGHLANDS TO THE LOW 50S ALONG AND EAST OF
I-95.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
REACHES THE GULF STREAM. WINDS STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 15-20 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRENGTHENING
LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WRAPAROUND RAINFALL
LIKELY AT TIMES OVER EASTERN MD AND PORTIONS OF VA. UPSLOPE RAIN
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL FAVOR LIQUID RAIN OVER MOST
OF THE HIGHLANDS...BUT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN GRANT...PENDLETON
AND HIGHLAND MAY SEE SNOW MIXED IN. LOW TEMPS IN THE 40S ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY THURSDAY AS SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE  SLOWLY SLIDES UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. DOWNSLOPING OF
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ELIMINATE POPS LOCALLY DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...WHERE UPSLOPE
RAIN IS POSSIBLE...AND THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA ALONG
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO FILL IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE
WEAKER FRIDAY. THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL SEE QUIET/DRY
WEATHER AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING KEEPS PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT TEMPS
THIS WEEKEND TO BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
MID-60S...AND TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK TO BE JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCATTERED AREAS OF RAIN ARE DEVELOPING TO THE WEST...AND WILL MOVE
INTO THE WASHINGTON/BALTIMORE TERMINALS BY THIS EVENING. PERIODS
OF MVFR VSBYS LIKELY WITH RAIN. CIGS LOWER TO MVFR TONIGHT.
PERIODS OF IFR PSBL AS WELL AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS THIS
AFTN AND EVENING...BECG NW AND INCREASING TO AROUND 10KT
OVERNIGHT. LOWER CIGS EXPECTED TO PERSIST WEDNESDAY...AND PERIODIC
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. GUSTY NW WINDS EXPECTED...UP TO 20-25KT
BY THE AFTERNOON.

THU...VFR. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25KT.

FRI...VFR. NW WINDS AROUND 1OKT.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OCCURRENCE OF AVIATION HAZARDS OVER THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.


CLDY WED NGT BUT CIGS XPCTD TO BE VFR. BRZY NW WINDS XPCTD WED NGT
AND THU. VFR/NO PROBS FRI AND SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...PRESSURE SURGE HEADING TOWARDS THE WATERS AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE I-95 CORRIDOR. NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE RESULTED
IN GUSTS AROUND 20KTS. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION TONIGHT. A SCA IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS BECOME
N-NW AND INCREASE OVERNIGHT...WITH SCA GUSTS LIKELY BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR GALES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OFF THE NJ/DELMARVA SHORE. MODEL
FORECASTS ARE MARGINAL FOR GALES...SO FOR NOW OPTED TO EXTEND SCA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS LIKELY TO REACH 30KT IN SOME
PARTS OF CHES BAY AT LEAST.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES UP THE NORTHEAST COAST. WINDS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE WATERS...THOUGH CURRENTLY THINK THEY
WILL STAY MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20 KNOT RANGE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>534-538>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ535>537.

&&

$$
UPDATE...HAS
SYNOPSIS...KS
NEAR TERM...KS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...KS/CEB
MARINE...KS/CEB








000
FXUS61 KLWX 212216
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
616 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS
EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATE...PRESSURE SURGE MOVING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND TOWARDS
THE WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SEE MARINE SECTION.

DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. BROAD CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL ALSO DROP INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION BY THIS EVENING...AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS
IT MOVES INTO THE TIDEWATER REGION OVERNIGHT.

COMBINATION OF COOL AIR ALOFT...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND
MARGINAL SURFACE INSTABILITY IS PRODUCING SCATTERED RAIN AND
SHOWERS OVER THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY...POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND
UPSTREAM ACROSS WV/PA AND OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH AROUND
500 J/KG OF SBCAPE...WILL HAVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME
ISOLATED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE
60S...WITH A FEW 70S NOTED IN THE VA PIEDMONT. COOLER TEMPS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS WHERE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN IS KEEPING TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 50S.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOWS MOVE
JUST TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. BASIN WIDE
RAIN AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS
OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME LOCAL AREAS MAY SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH
LOCALIZED PERIODS OF MORE MODERATE RAINFALL. STEADY BREEZE AROUND
5-10KT FROM THE NW CONTINUES AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THE
BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW INCREASES. LOWS TONIGHT RANGE FROM
THE LOW 40S IN THE HIGHLANDS TO THE LOW 50S ALONG AND EAST OF
I-95.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
REACHES THE GULF STREAM. WINDS STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 15-20 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRENGTHENING
LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WRAPAROUND RAINFALL
LIKELY AT TIMES OVER EASTERN MD AND PORTIONS OF VA. UPSLOPE RAIN
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL FAVOR LIQUID RAIN OVER MOST
OF THE HIGHLANDS...BUT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN GRANT...PENDLETON
AND HIGHLAND MAY SEE SNOW MIXED IN. LOW TEMPS IN THE 40S ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY THURSDAY AS SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE  SLOWLY SLIDES UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. DOWNSLOPING OF
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ELIMINATE POPS LOCALLY DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...WHERE UPSLOPE
RAIN IS POSSIBLE...AND THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA ALONG
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO FILL IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE
WEAKER FRIDAY. THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL SEE QUIET/DRY
WEATHER AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING KEEPS PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT TEMPS
THIS WEEKEND TO BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
MID-60S...AND TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK TO BE JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCATTERED AREAS OF RAIN ARE DEVELOPING TO THE WEST...AND WILL MOVE
INTO THE WASHINGTON/BALTIMORE TERMINALS BY THIS EVENING. PERIODS
OF MVFR VSBYS LIKELY WITH RAIN. CIGS LOWER TO MVFR TONIGHT.
PERIODS OF IFR PSBL AS WELL AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS THIS
AFTN AND EVENING...BECG NW AND INCREASING TO AROUND 10KT
OVERNIGHT. LOWER CIGS EXPECTED TO PERSIST WEDNESDAY...AND PERIODIC
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. GUSTY NW WINDS EXPECTED...UP TO 20-25KT
BY THE AFTERNOON.

THU...VFR. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25KT.

FRI...VFR. NW WINDS AROUND 1OKT.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OCCURRENCE OF AVIATION HAZARDS OVER THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.


CLDY WED NGT BUT CIGS XPCTD TO BE VFR. BRZY NW WINDS XPCTD WED NGT
AND THU. VFR/NO PROBS FRI AND SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...PRESSURE SURGE HEADING TOWARDS THE WATERS AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE I-95 CORRIDOR. NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE RESULTED
IN GUSTS AROUND 20KTS. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION TONIGHT. A SCA IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS BECOME
N-NW AND INCREASE OVERNIGHT...WITH SCA GUSTS LIKELY BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR GALES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OFF THE NJ/DELMARVA SHORE. MODEL
FORECASTS ARE MARGINAL FOR GALES...SO FOR NOW OPTED TO EXTEND SCA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS LIKELY TO REACH 30KT IN SOME
PARTS OF CHES BAY AT LEAST.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES UP THE NORTHEAST COAST. WINDS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE WATERS...THOUGH CURRENTLY THINK THEY
WILL STAY MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20 KNOT RANGE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>534-538>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ535>537.

&&

$$
UPDATE...HAS
SYNOPSIS...KS
NEAR TERM...KS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...KS/CEB
MARINE...KS/CEB








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 212029
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
429 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
EVENING...THEN PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY WHILE
SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY...
FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER SE
PA/SOUTHERN NJ WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW FROM THIS LOW INTO
SW VA. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING...CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. A STRONG SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY SEEN ON WV IMAGERY OVER THE OH VALLEY IS PROGGED TO
DIVE SE AROUND THE BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER LOW...REACHING
VA/NC OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL IN TURN ALLOW A CLOSED LOW TO DEVELOP
OVER THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT. AS THE SHORTWAVE/UPPER TROUGH
APPROACH LATE TODAY...EXPECT SHOWERS TO INITIALLY DEVELOP OVER NW
ZONES BEFORE SPREADING SOUTH/EAST OVERNIGHT. WILL CARRY 25-40%
POPS N-NW OF KRIC THROUGH 00Z. WITH THE LOW CUTTING OFF OVER US
TONIGHT...THE BEST FORCING FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS OR
HIGH-END CHANCE POPS (50-70%) ACROSS THE NORTHERN NECK/MIDDLE
PENINSULA ONTO THE EASTERN SHORE OVERNIGHT...DECREASING TO ~20
ACROSS SW ZONES (WHERE DRY CONDITIONS MAY PREVAIL). CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ELEVATED TSTM OR TWO (GIVEN STEEP H5 TO H7
LAPSE RATES OF 6.5 TO 7C)...BUT WILL PRECLUDE FROM FORECAST ATTM
GIVEN FAIRLY STABLE LOW LEVELS. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 40S...TO
LOW/MID 50S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND OFFSHORE WED. AFTER A BRIEF
INCREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE OVERNIGHT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS BECOME
FAIRLY DRY ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS AS THE TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION
SWING FARTHER OFFSHORE...HOWEVER A FAIRLY SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT
PROGGED ALONG THE COAST. THE ERN SHORE IN PARTICULAR APPEARS TO BE
SET FOR A CLOUDY/COOL DAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. WILL THEREFORE KEEP
CHC POPS (25-50%) LIMITED TO FAR EASTERN VA...WITH LIKELY 60-70%
POPS ON THE EASTERN SHORE. COULD END UP BEING DRY OVER FAR W/SW
ZONES. QPF AMOUNTS TONIGHT/WED WILL AVG 0.25-0.75" ON THE ERN
SHORE...GENLY ONLY AROUND .10" OR LESS ELSEWHERE. FAVOR COOLER END
OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS WED...MID 60S SW TO AROUND 60/LOWER 60S NE.
OTHER FEATURE TO NOTE WILL BE THE INCREASING NW WINDS BY AFTN AS
THE SFC LOW INTENSIFIES FAIRLY RAPIDLY OFF THE COAST. GUSTS TO
25-35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATER AFTN/EVENING (ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST).

THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE WED NIGHT INTO THU...LOCATING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 00Z FRIDAY. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWER CHANCES
BY THEN WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN SHORE (20%). DECREASING
CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE
LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. COOL AGAIN THU WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 60-65.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT IN BETWEEN SUB 1000 MB SFC LOW
OFF LONG ISLAND AND 1020 MB SFC HIGH OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY. EXPECT
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACRS THE ERN
SHORE...15-25 MPH ELSEWHERE.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON
FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR SUNSHINE...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND MILDER
TEMPS. HIGH FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPR 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS WELL TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY
MIDWEEK. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY (PERHAPS WARMER TUESDAY). LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. BEHIND THE
FRONT...STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL HELP A COOLER AIRMASS DIVE
INTO THE AREA. DRIZZLE ALONG WITH RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS
THE AREA AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND LAST THROUGH NOON ON WED. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE NW AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH WED
AFTN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BEHIND THE STRENGTHENING
SURFACE LOW TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW.
WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 20KT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA WED EVENING AS THE SURFACE HIGH
NUDGES FARTHER EAST. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE FA THU
AND FRI WITH STRONGER NW WINDS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...WITH
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFYING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE SCA
CONDITIONS...BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND
CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST WIND IS
GENERALLY 20-25KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT FOR MOST OF THE MARINE
AREA. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR LOW-END GALE CONDITIONS LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING PRIMARILY SUPPORTED BY
THE 21/12Z NAM. AT THIS TIME THE CURRENT SCA WAS MAINTAINED GIVEN
THE POTENTIAL FOR ONLY MARGINAL GALE CONDITIONS...WITH AN ONSET
GENERALLY AT OR BEYOND 24HR FROM 4PM TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH SCA
CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE OCEAN. WITH THE
FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FROM THE NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT
5-7 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15KT AND
SEAS SUBSIDING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 5 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ630>638-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...AJZ





000
FXUS61 KRNK 211928
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
328 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST AND
OFF THE DELMARVA COAST BY WEDNESDAY. THIS CYCLONE WILL STRENGTHEN
INTO A NOR-EASTER THAT WILL PELT NEW ENGLAND WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.
BACKLASH FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FELT ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY IN THE FORM OF CONSIDERABLY CLOUDY COOL WEATHER ALONG
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. A MODERATING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER
THE WEEKEND AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...REPLACED
BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING WARMING CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND...AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE LAST WEEK OF
OCTOBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA WITH A COLD FRONT
TRAILING SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE FRONT
WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING PRODUCING A FEW
SHOWERS...BUT THE GREATER IMPACT WILL BE FOR AREAS NORTHEAST OF
OUR REGION WHERE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE PER THE
DEVELOPING/STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA.
AS THE LOW PASSES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT...THE CYCLONE IS PROGGED
TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY...YIELDING TO SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OF ABOUT
10MB IN 12 HOURS ONCE IT PASSES OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. THIS RAPID
STRENGTHENING WILL RESULT IN A NOR-EASTER THAT WILL PELT NEW
ENGLAND WITH HEAVY RAIN AND WIND. FOR OUR REGION...WE WILL BE ON
THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE STORM...THE DRY SIDE...SO THE BIGGEST
BY-PRODUCT WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND WIND. SOME THREAT FOR SHOWERS
WILL EXIST OVER THE VA/WV HIGHLANDS...AND ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES VCNTY OF BUCKINGHAM WHERE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE
STORM MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF PRECIP TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
ASIDE FROM THIS THREAT...THE GREATER INFLUENCE THAT MOST FOLKS
WITHIN OUR CWA SHOULD NOTICE WILL BE THE WIND. 85H WINDS ARE
PROGGED AROUND 40 KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE
INTO BREEZY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
MPH...AND 30 TO 35 MPH IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL BE COOL...BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER AND MIXING FROM THE WIND. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND 60 IN THE PIEDMONT...
CLOUD COVER AND LOWERING THICKNESSES FROM THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE
PUTTING A DAMPER ON ANY CONTRIBUTION FROM SOLAR INSOLATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

WE WILL BE WATCHING AN OCCLUDED LOW/NOR-EASTER DRIFT OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. SHORT WAVES PIVOTING
AROUND THIS LOW WILL PERIODICALLY TRACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED BUT COULD SEE A PASSING SHOWER OR TWO
ACROSS THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AND ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. MOST NOTABLE WILL BE A PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION
BETWEEN THE NOR-EASTER AND APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST.
BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS LIKELY ALONG RIDGE TOPS AND POSSIBLY FOR
LOWER ELEVATIONS IF SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. MOST CLEAR SKIES
POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF RNK CWA (BLUEFIELD TO GRAYSON
COUNTY). DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD ALSO KEEP THE EAST MOSTLY CLEAR
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHSIDE...BUT THE WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG
EAST AS IT WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. CLOUDS BEGIN TO CLEAR ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.
ANY WINDS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY WILL REMAIN ALOFT AND ABOVE THE
INVERSION.

MODELS ARE BRINGING ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND OVER THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL HAVE LESS
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THAN THE NOR-EASTER...THEREFORE RAINFALL
CHANCES ARE EVEN LOWER BUT NOT ZERO ALONG WESTERN SLOPES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HEIGHTS
BUILDING THERE AFTER.

COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE MID ATLANTIC LOW/NOR-
EASTER WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN NORMAL THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY DIP INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
EACH NIGHT WHILE MIXING WILL DETER FROST FROM FORMING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER MOST OF THE CONUS...FROM
THE ROCKIES MOUNTAINS TO THE EAST COAST...STARTING SATURDAY. THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE ALIGNED OVER THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY.
BASICALLY...HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE EACH DAY WHICH TRANSLATES INTO
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. HEIGHTS
BEGIN TO LOWER ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ACCOMPANY RIDGING ALOFT THIS WEEKEND.
THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
US...ESSENTIALLY BLOCKING ANY RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF. WITH NO
LIFT AND/OR MOISTURE...HIGH CONFIDENCE TO RUN WITH ZERO POPS INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

CLOSED LOW OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL DRIFT OFF THE DELMARVA COAST
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE REGION THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS FEATURE WILL
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NOR-EASTER THAT WILL PELT THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST WITH HEAVY RAIN A WIND...AND WILL MOST LIKELY IMPACT
AIR TRAFFIC FOR MANY OF THE NEW ENGLAND TERMINALS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WORK WEEK.

FOR OUR LOCAL REGION...BKN-OVC CLOUD BASES WILL BE COMMON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND MVFR ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE VA/NC
HIGHLANDS...AND ACROSS VIRGINIA NORTH OF A KROA/KLYH
LINE...HIGHWAY 460. LITTLE OR NO SHOWER THREAT IS EXPECTED FROM
THE VA/NC STATE LINE AND POINTS SOUTH.

WITH THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE TO OUR NORTHEAST...BACKLASH WILL BE
FELT THROUGHOUT OUR REGION IN THE FORM OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
3000-5000FT AGL WINDS OF 40 KTS ARE PROGGED FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS. 20-30KT
SURFACE GUSTS WILL BE COMMON.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER ABOUT THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA BY FRIDAY. IMPACTS...ESP FROM
WIND...WILL CONTINUE IN ADDITION TO WIDELY SCATTERED -SHRA ACROSS
THE VA/WV HIGHLANDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. MVFR
CLOUDS WILL THUS BE COMMON ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA TO LYH TO DAN CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY-SUNDAY. WINDS MAY CONTINUE
TO BE A CONCERN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
FROM THE WEST.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...PM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 211921
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
321 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
EVENING...THEN PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY WHILE
SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY...
FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER SE
PA/SOUTHERN NJ WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW FROM THIS LOW INTO
SW VA. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING...CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. A STRONG SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY SEEN ON WV IMAGERY OVER THE OH VALLEY IS PROGGED TO
DIVE SE AROUND THE BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER LOW...REACHING
VA/NC OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL IN TURN ALLOW A CLOSED LOW TO DEVELOP
OVER THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT. AS THE SHORTWAVE/UPPER TROUGH
APPROACH LATE TODAY...EXPECT SHOWERS TO INITIALLY DEVELOP OVER NW
ZONES BEFORE SPREADING SOUTH/EAST OVERNIGHT. WILL CARRY 25-40%
POPS N-NW OF KRIC THROUGH 00Z. WITH THE LOW CUTTING OFF OVER US
TONIGHT...THE BEST FORCING FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS OR
HIGH-END CHANCE POPS (50-70%) ACROSS THE NORTHERN NECK/MIDDLE
PENINSULA ONTO THE EASTERN SHORE OVERNIGHT...DECREASING TO ~20
ACROSS SW ZONES (WHERE DRY CONDITIONS MAY PREVAIL). CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ELEVATED TSTM OR TWO (GIVEN STEEP H5 TO H7
LAPSE RATES OF 6.5 TO 7C)...BUT WILL PRECLUDE FROM FORECAST ATTM
GIVEN FAIRLY STABLE LOW LEVELS. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 40S...TO
LOW/MID 50S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND OFFSHORE WED. AFTER A BRIEF
INCREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE OVERNIGHT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS BECOME
FAIRLY DRY ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS AS THE TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION
SWING FARTHER OFFSHORE...HOWEVER A FAIRLY SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT
PROGGED ALONG THE COAST. THE ERN SHORE IN PARTICULAR APPEARS TO BE
SET FOR A CLOUDY/COOL DAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. WILL THEREFORE KEEP
CHC POPS (25-50%) LIMITED TO FAR EASTERN VA...WITH LIKELY 60-70%
POPS ON THE EASTERN SHORE. COULD END UP BEING DRY OVER FAR W/SW
ZONES. QPF AMOUNTS TONIGHT/WED WILL AVG 0.25-0.75" ON THE ERN
SHORE...GENLY ONLY AROUND .10" OR LESS ELSEWHERE. FAVOR COOLER END
OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS WED...MID 60S SW TO AROUND 60/LOWER 60S NE.
OTHER FEATURE TO NOTE WILL BE THE INCREASING NW WINDS BY AFTN AS
THE SFC LOW INTENSIFIES FAIRLY RAPIDLY OFF THE COAST. GUSTS TO
25-35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATER AFTN/EVENING (ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST).

THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE WED NIGHT INTO THU...LOCATING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 00Z FRIDAY. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWER CHANCES
BY THEN WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN SHORE (20%). DECREASING
CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE
LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. COOL AGAIN THU WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 60-65.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT IN BETWEEN SUB 1000 MB SFC LOW
OFF LONG ISLAND AND 1020 MB SFC HIGH OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY. EXPECT
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACRS THE ERN
SHORE...15-25 MPH ELSEWHERE.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON
FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR SUNSHINE...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND MILDER
TEMPS. HIGH FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPR 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS WELL TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY
MIDWEEK. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY (PERHAPS WARMER TUESDAY). LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. BEHIND THE
FRONT...STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL HELP A COOLER AIRMASS DIVE
INTO THE AREA. DRIZZLE ALONG WITH RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS
THE AREA AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND LAST THROUGH NOON ON WED. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE NW AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH WED
AFTN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BEHIND THE STRENGTHENING
SURFACE LOW TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW.
WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 20KT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA WED EVENING AS THE SURFACE HIGH
NUDGES FARTHER EAST. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE FA THU
AND FRI WITH STRONGER NW WINDS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...AND ASSOCIATED WIND SPEEDS FM THE
NW STARTING WED AFTN DUE TO INTENSIFYING LO PRES OFF THE CST...HAVE
HOISTED SCA`S FOR ALL WTRS STARTING WED AFTN AND WILL MAINTAIN THEM
THRU AT LEAST THU AFTN FOR NOW. AT THIS TIME...HAVE GUSTS TO ARND 30
KT OVR THE CHES BAY ZNS AND CSTL ZNS FM EARLY WED EVENG THRU THU.
WITH FLOW BEING OFFSHR FM THE NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT
5-6 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT AND
SEAS SUBSIDING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 5 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ630>638-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...AJZ/TMG







000
FXUS61 KLWX 211845
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
245 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS
EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. BROAD CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL ALSO DROP INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION BY THIS EVENING...AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS
IT MOVES INTO THE TIDEWATER REGION OVERNIGHT.

COMBINATION OF COOL AIR ALOFT...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND
MARGINAL SURFACE INSTABILITY IS PRODUCING SCATTERED RAIN AND
SHOWERS OVER THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY...POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND
UPSTREAM ACROSS WV/PA AND OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH AROUND
500 J/KG OF SBCAPE...WILL HAVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME
ISOLATED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE
60S...WITH A FEW 70S NOTED IN THE VA PIEDMONT. COOLER TEMPS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS WHERE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN IS KEEPING TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 50S.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOWS MOVE
JUST TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. BASIN WIDE
RAIN AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS
OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME LOCAL AREAS MAY SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH
LOCALIZED PERIODS OF MORE MODERATE RAINFALL. STEADY BREEZE AROUND
5-10KT FROM THE NW CONTINUES AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THE
BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW INCREASES. LOWS TONIGHT RANGE FROM
THE LOW 40S IN THE HIGHLANDS TO THE LOW 50S ALONG AND EAST OF
I-95.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
REACHES THE GULF STREAM. WINDS STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 15-20 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRENGTHENING
LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WRAPAROUND RAINFALL
LIKELY AT TIMES OVER EASTERN MD AND PORTIONS OF VA. UPSLOPE RAIN
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL FAVOR LIQUID RAIN OVER MOST
OF THE HIGHLANDS...BUT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN GRANT...PENDLETON
AND HIGHLAND MAY SEE SNOW MIXED IN. LOW TEMPS IN THE 40S ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY THURSDAY AS SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE  SLOWLY SLIDES UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. DOWNSLOPING OF
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ELIMINATE POPS LOCALLY DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...WHERE UPSLOPE
RAIN IS POSSIBLE...AND THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA ALONG
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO FILL IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE
WEAKER FRIDAY. THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL SEE QUIET/DRY
WEATHER AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING KEEPS PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT TEMPS
THIS WEEKEND TO BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
MID-60S...AND TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK TO BE JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCATTERED AREAS OF RAIN ARE DEVELOPING TO THE WEST...AND WILL MOVE
INTO THE WASHINGTON/BALTIMORE TERMINALS BY THIS EVENING. PERIODS
OF MVFR VSBYS LIKELY WITH RAIN. CIGS LOWER TO MVFR TONIGHT.
PERIODS OF IFR PSBL AS WELL AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS THIS
AFTN AND EVENING...BECG NW AND INCREASING TO AROUND 10KT
OVERNIGHT. LOWER CIGS EXPECTED TO PERSIST WEDNESDAY...AND PERIODIC
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. GUSTY NW WINDS EXPECTED...UP TO 20-25KT
BY THE AFTERNOON.

THU...VFR. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25KT.

FRI...VFR. NW WINDS AROUND 1OKT.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OCCURRENCE OF AVIATION HAZARDS OVER THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.


CLDY WED NGT BUT CIGS XPCTD TO BE VFR. BRZY NW WINDS XPCTD WED NGT
AND THU. VFR/NO PROBS FRI AND SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS BECOME N-NW AND INCREASE OVERNIGHT...WITH
SCA GUSTS LIKELY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. POTENTIAL CONTINUES
FOR GALES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OFF THE
NJ/DELMARVA SHORE. MODEL FORECASTS ARE MARGINAL FOR GALES...SO FOR
NOW OPTED TO EXTEND SCA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS LIKELY
TO REACH 30KT IN SOME PARTS OF CHES BAY AT LEAST.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES UP THE NORTHEAST COAST. WINDS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE WATERS...THOUGH CURRENTLY THINK THEY
WILL STAY MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20 KNOT RANGE.



&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KCS
NEAR TERM...KCS
SHORT TERM...KCS
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...KCS/CEB
MARINE...KCS/CEB








000
FXUS61 KRNK 211455
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1055 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD IN OUR DIRECTION...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1055 AM EDT TUESDAY...

VISIBLE SATELLITE PICS SHOWING TYPICAL PATTERN OF CLEAR EAST TO
CLOUDY WEST AND SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS STARTING TO REFORM AS
UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINES WITH ENERGY ROTATING AROUND UPPER TROF
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECT THIS OVERALL FLAVOR TO
CONTINUE WITH SHOWERS ON THE INCREASE WITH AN EXPECTED DIURNAL
TREND. HAVE FRESHENED THE GRIDS WITH CURRENT DATA BUT NO MAJOR
CHANGES NEEDED.

.PREVIOUS AFD...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. ANTICIPATE A RESURGENCE OF UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN THE
WEST...WITH A BIT MORE COVERAGE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MIDDAY.
A REINFORCING PIECE OF ENERGY WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE WEST TO NORTHWEST
AND TAPER CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME
QUITE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN
THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT WITH
DOWNSLOPE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING IN THIS REGION. UPPER LOW WILL
PIVOT DOWN INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
WEDNESDAY. PLAYED POPS CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND WITH BEST CHANCE IN
THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S IN THE
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THROUGH THURSDAY...THE FOCUS FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE ON A DEEP
CLOSED UPPER LOW PROGGED TO DIVE DOWN INTO THE DELMARVA
REGION...THEN SLOWLY LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND. THE
LOW WILL KEEP A PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WITH
VARIABLE CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...AND COOL TEMPERATURES. WITH THE REGION
REMAINING ON THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST...DRIER SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...QPF WILL BE MINIMAL...MAINLY A FEW SPRINKLES OR
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH NORTH OF U.S. 460...AND PERHAPS UP TO 1/4
INCH OVER THE THREE DAY PERIOD EASTERN WV MOUNTAIN UPSLOPE AREAS.
IN ADDITION...WITH A DEEP SFC LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE DELMARVA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LOW...GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP WED-
THU. SO...WHILE THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE
SCANT...CONDITIONS WED-THU WILL BE FAR FROM IDEAL WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUDS...CHILLY WINDS...AND SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. THE
WORST CONDITIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH BETTER
CONDITIONS...LESS CLOUDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES...ACROSS THE NC
PIEDMONT COUNTIES.

WITH RESPECT TO WINTER WEATHER CONCERNS...THERE REALLY ARE NONE.
THERE IS A POCKET OF NEAR 0C AIR WHICH DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE UPPER LOW LATE WED INTO THU...BUT MOVES ACROSS RAIN FREE
AREAS OF EASTERN KY/EASTERN TN/FAR SW VA...AND NW NC. AT THIS
POINT...NO PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED IN THESE AREAS.
OTHERWISE...LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ACROSS THE COLDER WESTERN
MOUNTAIN AREAS REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 1330-1340 RANGE...MUCH TOO
WARM FOR ANY CONCERN WITH WINTER PRECIPITATION. IN ADDITION...SFC
TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY WINTER
PCPN IN THE GRIDS AND REMOVED THE FEW PIXELS OF SNOW PREVIOUSLY
INDICATED ACROSS NW GREENBRIER. THE BIGGER CONCERN WITH THESE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL IN AREAS THAT
CLEAR...BUT TURBULENT MIXING/WIND MAY PREVENT THAT ONCE AGAIN.
NEAR NORMAL MIN TEMPS AND BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MID-WEEK IN NORTHERN AREAS...WITH READINGS CLOSER TO
NORMAL IN SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.

FOR FRIDAY...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN AT ODDS AS TO WHAT TO DO WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH THAT FOLLOWS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE CLOSED
LOW. WHILE A COUPLE OF RUNS BACK...THIS WAS SLATED TO STAY IN THE
SOUTHERN STATES...A HIGH AMPLITUDE...SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE UPPER RIDGE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL KEEP THIS FEATURE FURTHER NORTH. IN
ESSENCE...IT IS SOMEWHAT OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER...BUT HAS PRECIOUS
MOISTURE WITH WHICH TO WORK. GFS/ECMWF WANT TO GENERATE SOME -RA
WITH THIS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP ALL POPS
BELOW 15 PERCENT.

USED A MODEL BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...MAX
TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...AND
MIN TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT TUESDAY...

BENIGN...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BROAD UPPER RIDGE DRIFTS
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. INTO THE EASTERN U.S. THIS RIDGE WILL
EFFECTIVELY SHUT OFF ANY INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE...ACTUALLY
SUPPRESSED WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF COAST EVEN...AND LOCK THE COLD
CANADIAN AIR WELL NORTH OF THE BORDER WITH A STRONG ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THAT REGION. THE 850MB 0C ISOTHERM IS PROGGED TO REMAIN
MOSTLY NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH THE END OF OCTOBER.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO RISE INTO THE
+12C TO +14C...SO TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY MAX TEMPS...WITH MIN TEMPS CREEPING TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY AS WELL. SHOULD BE A
FANTASTIC WEEKEND TO VIEW THE BRILLIANT FALL FOLIAGE AROUND THE
REGION...WHICH IS AT ITS PEAK NOW IN MANY PARTS OF THE CWA AND
SURROUNDING AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT TUESDAY...

LEADING SHORTWAVE IN ADVANCE OF DEEPENING...SOON TO BE CLOSED
UPPER LOW MOVING EAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. NEXT LOBE OF PVA
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION BY AFTERNOON...WHICH
WILL AGAIN BE ASSOCIATED WITH -SHRA OR SPRINKLES...WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...AND INCREASINGLY STRONG/GUSTY W-WNW WINDS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. OVERNIGHT/EARLY WED...UPPER
LOW WILL DIVE TO A POSITION JUST SOUTH OF DCA/IAD...WITH SFC
CYCLOGENESIS JUST TO THE EAST ALONG THE COAST. AS A RESULT WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY OVERNIGHT...WITH EVEN
STRONGER/GUSTIER WINDS...POTENTIALLY TO 30KTS AT
ROA/BCB/BLF...POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY WED.

WITH RESPECT TO CIGS AND VSBYS...ALL TAF SITES WILL REMAIN ON THE
DRIER...SW SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. HOWEVER...THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC
LOW WILL RESULT IN INCREASE UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS AND
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THUS...CIGS WILL PROGRESSIVELY LOWER TO
IFR...POTENTIALLY EVEN HIGH END LIFR AT BLF/LWB/BCB AFT 00Z...AND
ESPECIALLY AFT 06Z. SCT -SHRA WILL ALSO CONTINUE AT TIMES...AT
THIS POINT MAINLY BECAUSE OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL CAA.
VISIBILITIES SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM WITH STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW AND
VERY LIGHT RAINFALL. MAY NEED TO WATCH BLF AFT 06Z IF CLOUD CIGS
LOWER BELOW 004...WHICH COULD RESULT IN MVFR-IFR VSBYS AT THAT
TIME. ROA/LYH/DAN ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT THE TAF
VALID PERIOD WITH VFR CLOUD CIGS.

WINDS WSW 5-8KTS WITH LOW END GUSTS THROUGH MIDDAY...BECOMING WNW
AND INCREASING TO 10-12KTS WITH GUSTS 20-22KTS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER ABOUT THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION THROUGH THU...THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY
FRI. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GUSTY WINDS
AND SCATTERED -SHRA THAT WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY THE PREFERRED
UPSLOPE REGION OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA INTO WED NIGHT OR EVEN
THURS MORNING. MVFR CLOUDS WILL THUS BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA TO LYH TO DAN
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE
CLOUDS IN WEST WILL SLOWLY BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...FOR DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE FRI-SUN.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK/MBS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...PM/RAB
AVIATION...KK/RAB



000
FXUS61 KRNK 211455
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1055 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD IN OUR DIRECTION...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1055 AM EDT TUESDAY...

VISIBLE SATELLITE PICS SHOWING TYPICAL PATTERN OF CLEAR EAST TO
CLOUDY WEST AND SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS STARTING TO REFORM AS
UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINES WITH ENERGY ROTATING AROUND UPPER TROF
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECT THIS OVERALL FLAVOR TO
CONTINUE WITH SHOWERS ON THE INCREASE WITH AN EXPECTED DIURNAL
TREND. HAVE FRESHENED THE GRIDS WITH CURRENT DATA BUT NO MAJOR
CHANGES NEEDED.

.PREVIOUS AFD...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. ANTICIPATE A RESURGENCE OF UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN THE
WEST...WITH A BIT MORE COVERAGE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MIDDAY.
A REINFORCING PIECE OF ENERGY WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE WEST TO NORTHWEST
AND TAPER CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME
QUITE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN
THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT WITH
DOWNSLOPE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING IN THIS REGION. UPPER LOW WILL
PIVOT DOWN INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
WEDNESDAY. PLAYED POPS CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND WITH BEST CHANCE IN
THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S IN THE
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THROUGH THURSDAY...THE FOCUS FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE ON A DEEP
CLOSED UPPER LOW PROGGED TO DIVE DOWN INTO THE DELMARVA
REGION...THEN SLOWLY LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND. THE
LOW WILL KEEP A PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WITH
VARIABLE CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...AND COOL TEMPERATURES. WITH THE REGION
REMAINING ON THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST...DRIER SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...QPF WILL BE MINIMAL...MAINLY A FEW SPRINKLES OR
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH NORTH OF U.S. 460...AND PERHAPS UP TO 1/4
INCH OVER THE THREE DAY PERIOD EASTERN WV MOUNTAIN UPSLOPE AREAS.
IN ADDITION...WITH A DEEP SFC LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE DELMARVA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LOW...GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP WED-
THU. SO...WHILE THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE
SCANT...CONDITIONS WED-THU WILL BE FAR FROM IDEAL WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUDS...CHILLY WINDS...AND SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. THE
WORST CONDITIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH BETTER
CONDITIONS...LESS CLOUDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES...ACROSS THE NC
PIEDMONT COUNTIES.

WITH RESPECT TO WINTER WEATHER CONCERNS...THERE REALLY ARE NONE.
THERE IS A POCKET OF NEAR 0C AIR WHICH DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE UPPER LOW LATE WED INTO THU...BUT MOVES ACROSS RAIN FREE
AREAS OF EASTERN KY/EASTERN TN/FAR SW VA...AND NW NC. AT THIS
POINT...NO PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED IN THESE AREAS.
OTHERWISE...LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ACROSS THE COLDER WESTERN
MOUNTAIN AREAS REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 1330-1340 RANGE...MUCH TOO
WARM FOR ANY CONCERN WITH WINTER PRECIPITATION. IN ADDITION...SFC
TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY WINTER
PCPN IN THE GRIDS AND REMOVED THE FEW PIXELS OF SNOW PREVIOUSLY
INDICATED ACROSS NW GREENBRIER. THE BIGGER CONCERN WITH THESE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL IN AREAS THAT
CLEAR...BUT TURBULENT MIXING/WIND MAY PREVENT THAT ONCE AGAIN.
NEAR NORMAL MIN TEMPS AND BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MID-WEEK IN NORTHERN AREAS...WITH READINGS CLOSER TO
NORMAL IN SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.

FOR FRIDAY...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN AT ODDS AS TO WHAT TO DO WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH THAT FOLLOWS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE CLOSED
LOW. WHILE A COUPLE OF RUNS BACK...THIS WAS SLATED TO STAY IN THE
SOUTHERN STATES...A HIGH AMPLITUDE...SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE UPPER RIDGE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL KEEP THIS FEATURE FURTHER NORTH. IN
ESSENCE...IT IS SOMEWHAT OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER...BUT HAS PRECIOUS
MOISTURE WITH WHICH TO WORK. GFS/ECMWF WANT TO GENERATE SOME -RA
WITH THIS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP ALL POPS
BELOW 15 PERCENT.

USED A MODEL BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...MAX
TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...AND
MIN TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT TUESDAY...

BENIGN...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BROAD UPPER RIDGE DRIFTS
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. INTO THE EASTERN U.S. THIS RIDGE WILL
EFFECTIVELY SHUT OFF ANY INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE...ACTUALLY
SUPPRESSED WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF COAST EVEN...AND LOCK THE COLD
CANADIAN AIR WELL NORTH OF THE BORDER WITH A STRONG ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THAT REGION. THE 850MB 0C ISOTHERM IS PROGGED TO REMAIN
MOSTLY NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH THE END OF OCTOBER.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO RISE INTO THE
+12C TO +14C...SO TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY MAX TEMPS...WITH MIN TEMPS CREEPING TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY AS WELL. SHOULD BE A
FANTASTIC WEEKEND TO VIEW THE BRILLIANT FALL FOLIAGE AROUND THE
REGION...WHICH IS AT ITS PEAK NOW IN MANY PARTS OF THE CWA AND
SURROUNDING AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT TUESDAY...

LEADING SHORTWAVE IN ADVANCE OF DEEPENING...SOON TO BE CLOSED
UPPER LOW MOVING EAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. NEXT LOBE OF PVA
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION BY AFTERNOON...WHICH
WILL AGAIN BE ASSOCIATED WITH -SHRA OR SPRINKLES...WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...AND INCREASINGLY STRONG/GUSTY W-WNW WINDS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. OVERNIGHT/EARLY WED...UPPER
LOW WILL DIVE TO A POSITION JUST SOUTH OF DCA/IAD...WITH SFC
CYCLOGENESIS JUST TO THE EAST ALONG THE COAST. AS A RESULT WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY OVERNIGHT...WITH EVEN
STRONGER/GUSTIER WINDS...POTENTIALLY TO 30KTS AT
ROA/BCB/BLF...POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY WED.

WITH RESPECT TO CIGS AND VSBYS...ALL TAF SITES WILL REMAIN ON THE
DRIER...SW SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. HOWEVER...THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC
LOW WILL RESULT IN INCREASE UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS AND
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THUS...CIGS WILL PROGRESSIVELY LOWER TO
IFR...POTENTIALLY EVEN HIGH END LIFR AT BLF/LWB/BCB AFT 00Z...AND
ESPECIALLY AFT 06Z. SCT -SHRA WILL ALSO CONTINUE AT TIMES...AT
THIS POINT MAINLY BECAUSE OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL CAA.
VISIBILITIES SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM WITH STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW AND
VERY LIGHT RAINFALL. MAY NEED TO WATCH BLF AFT 06Z IF CLOUD CIGS
LOWER BELOW 004...WHICH COULD RESULT IN MVFR-IFR VSBYS AT THAT
TIME. ROA/LYH/DAN ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT THE TAF
VALID PERIOD WITH VFR CLOUD CIGS.

WINDS WSW 5-8KTS WITH LOW END GUSTS THROUGH MIDDAY...BECOMING WNW
AND INCREASING TO 10-12KTS WITH GUSTS 20-22KTS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER ABOUT THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION THROUGH THU...THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY
FRI. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GUSTY WINDS
AND SCATTERED -SHRA THAT WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY THE PREFERRED
UPSLOPE REGION OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA INTO WED NIGHT OR EVEN
THURS MORNING. MVFR CLOUDS WILL THUS BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA TO LYH TO DAN
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE
CLOUDS IN WEST WILL SLOWLY BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...FOR DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE FRI-SUN.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK/MBS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...PM/RAB
AVIATION...KK/RAB




000
FXUS61 KLWX 211355
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
955 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 13Z...1010MB SFC LOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT STRETCHING OVER WRN PA AND ERN OHIO. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN IS
MOVING EWD THROUGH CENTRAL WV...AND MAY IMPACT THE ERN WV
PANHANDLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP SEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO WRN PA
AND WV THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. AS IT DOES...SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND HRRR/WRF MODELS...ANY PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...THEN SPREADING EWD TO THE METRO AREAS LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. AIRMASS WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY...WITH
SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. SURFACE TEMPS
SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE 60S...AND MAY TOUCH 70 ALONG AND EAST
OF I-95. AIR ALOFT WILL BE VERY COOL DUE TO THE UPPER LOW...WHICH
WILL HELP INCREASE OVERALL INSTABILITY IN SPITE OF MARGINAL
SURFACE DEW POINTS. MODIFIED 12Z KIAD SOUNDING YIELDS SBCAPE
BETWEEN 400-500 J/KG...ENOUGH FOR A FEW POTENTIAL ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

POPS GENERALLY DECREASE SLOWLY TONIGHT WEST TO EAST (EAST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT WITH UPSLOPE RAIN CONTINUING) AS THE UPR LOW CENTER
SHIFTS TO THE DELMARVA. MIN TEMPS MAINLY UPR 40S INLAND UNDER THE
COLD CORE LOW (UPR 30S IN THE ALLEGHENIES AND LOW 50S NEAR SHORE).

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MERELY DRIFTS EAST FROM THE DELMARVA
COAST. POPS PERSIST IN THE ALLEGHENIES FOR UPSLOPE AND EAST OF
I-95 FROM WRAP AROUND PRECIP. GUSTY NWLY FLOW FROM THE NOW CUTOFF
LOW. EXPECT GUSTS 35 TO 40 MPH...PARTICULARLY IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BLUSTERY WX LOOKS TO BE IN STORE WED NGT AND THU...ESPECIALLY IN
THE ERN PART OF THE FCST AREA. LOW PRES GOES VERTICALLY STACKED
OFF THE NJ CST W/ HIGH PRES BUILDING OVR OH/KY. THIS WL CREATE A
STRONG PRES GRAD AND BRZY/WINDY CONDS. ISOLD RW WL BE PSBL AS
WELL..AGN IN THE ERN PART OF THE AREA. LOW TEMPS IN THE 40S.

SKIES SHOULD BE CLRG DURG THU AS THE LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS TOWARDS
LONG ISLAND BUT SUSPECT IT WL STILL BE BRZY GIVEN THE PRES GRAD.
GRTR SUNSHINE SHOULD ALSO HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE LOWER LVLS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE AND BRING WIND TO THE SFC. HIGH TEMPS IN THE U50S TO LM60S.

AFTR THU WX SHOULD GET BETTER AND BETTER. HIGH PRES REPLACES THE
DEPARTED LOW ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD FRI THRU THE WKND...AND INTO
THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WK. EACH DAY SHOULD BE A LTL WARMER THAN
THE ONE B4...STARTING W/ THE LM60S FRI TO THE LM70S MON. LOWS IN
THE LM40S EVERYWHERE XCPT THE COOLER HIGHLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR PREVAILS INTO THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
LOW. LIKELY RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE TO REFINE TIMING OF ANY PRECIPITATION AND
DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS. SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST TONIGHT AS THE LOW
CROSSES THE AREA. STRONG NWLY FLOW WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 30
KT BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.

CLDY WED NGT BUT CIGS XPCTD TO BE VFR. BRZY NW WINDS XPCTD WED NGT
AND THU. VFR/NO PROBS FRI AND SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
FLOW BECOMING WLY LATE THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDER THIS EVENING OVER
THE BAY. NWLY FLOW INCREASES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS AT LEAST
30 KT BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. GALES POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
LOW LINGERS OFF THE DELMARVA.

SCA WL LKLY BE ISSUED FOR WED NGT AND THU. WE`LL HV TO KEEP OUR
EYES OUT FOR THE PSBLTY OF GUSTS REACHING GALE LVLS.

THE WKND IS LOOKING QUITE GOOD FOR MARINE ACTIVITIES - SUNNY
SKIES...PLSNT TEMPS...LGT WINDS. WATER TEMPS STILL IN LM60S.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOMALIES HAVE DROPPED TO JUST OVER ONE HALF FOOT AT SENSITIVE
LOCATIONS. COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
UPDATES...KCS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 211355
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
955 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 13Z...1010MB SFC LOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT STRETCHING OVER WRN PA AND ERN OHIO. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN IS
MOVING EWD THROUGH CENTRAL WV...AND MAY IMPACT THE ERN WV
PANHANDLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP SEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO WRN PA
AND WV THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. AS IT DOES...SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND HRRR/WRF MODELS...ANY PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...THEN SPREADING EWD TO THE METRO AREAS LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. AIRMASS WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY...WITH
SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. SURFACE TEMPS
SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE 60S...AND MAY TOUCH 70 ALONG AND EAST
OF I-95. AIR ALOFT WILL BE VERY COOL DUE TO THE UPPER LOW...WHICH
WILL HELP INCREASE OVERALL INSTABILITY IN SPITE OF MARGINAL
SURFACE DEW POINTS. MODIFIED 12Z KIAD SOUNDING YIELDS SBCAPE
BETWEEN 400-500 J/KG...ENOUGH FOR A FEW POTENTIAL ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

POPS GENERALLY DECREASE SLOWLY TONIGHT WEST TO EAST (EAST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT WITH UPSLOPE RAIN CONTINUING) AS THE UPR LOW CENTER
SHIFTS TO THE DELMARVA. MIN TEMPS MAINLY UPR 40S INLAND UNDER THE
COLD CORE LOW (UPR 30S IN THE ALLEGHENIES AND LOW 50S NEAR SHORE).

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MERELY DRIFTS EAST FROM THE DELMARVA
COAST. POPS PERSIST IN THE ALLEGHENIES FOR UPSLOPE AND EAST OF
I-95 FROM WRAP AROUND PRECIP. GUSTY NWLY FLOW FROM THE NOW CUTOFF
LOW. EXPECT GUSTS 35 TO 40 MPH...PARTICULARLY IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BLUSTERY WX LOOKS TO BE IN STORE WED NGT AND THU...ESPECIALLY IN
THE ERN PART OF THE FCST AREA. LOW PRES GOES VERTICALLY STACKED
OFF THE NJ CST W/ HIGH PRES BUILDING OVR OH/KY. THIS WL CREATE A
STRONG PRES GRAD AND BRZY/WINDY CONDS. ISOLD RW WL BE PSBL AS
WELL..AGN IN THE ERN PART OF THE AREA. LOW TEMPS IN THE 40S.

SKIES SHOULD BE CLRG DURG THU AS THE LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS TOWARDS
LONG ISLAND BUT SUSPECT IT WL STILL BE BRZY GIVEN THE PRES GRAD.
GRTR SUNSHINE SHOULD ALSO HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE LOWER LVLS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE AND BRING WIND TO THE SFC. HIGH TEMPS IN THE U50S TO LM60S.

AFTR THU WX SHOULD GET BETTER AND BETTER. HIGH PRES REPLACES THE
DEPARTED LOW ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD FRI THRU THE WKND...AND INTO
THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WK. EACH DAY SHOULD BE A LTL WARMER THAN
THE ONE B4...STARTING W/ THE LM60S FRI TO THE LM70S MON. LOWS IN
THE LM40S EVERYWHERE XCPT THE COOLER HIGHLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR PREVAILS INTO THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
LOW. LIKELY RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE TO REFINE TIMING OF ANY PRECIPITATION AND
DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS. SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST TONIGHT AS THE LOW
CROSSES THE AREA. STRONG NWLY FLOW WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 30
KT BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.

CLDY WED NGT BUT CIGS XPCTD TO BE VFR. BRZY NW WINDS XPCTD WED NGT
AND THU. VFR/NO PROBS FRI AND SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
FLOW BECOMING WLY LATE THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDER THIS EVENING OVER
THE BAY. NWLY FLOW INCREASES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS AT LEAST
30 KT BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. GALES POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
LOW LINGERS OFF THE DELMARVA.

SCA WL LKLY BE ISSUED FOR WED NGT AND THU. WE`LL HV TO KEEP OUR
EYES OUT FOR THE PSBLTY OF GUSTS REACHING GALE LVLS.

THE WKND IS LOOKING QUITE GOOD FOR MARINE ACTIVITIES - SUNNY
SKIES...PLSNT TEMPS...LGT WINDS. WATER TEMPS STILL IN LM60S.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOMALIES HAVE DROPPED TO JUST OVER ONE HALF FOOT AT SENSITIVE
LOCATIONS. COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
UPDATES...KCS







000
FXUS61 KRNK 211136
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
736 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD IN OUR DIRECTION...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT TUESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING AND TRAVEL INTO THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
REGIONAL WSR-88D IMAGES THIS MORNING SHOWED SCATTERED CONVECTION
ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA SOUTHWARD TO KENTUCKY MOVING EAST THIS MORNING.
INCREASED POPS FOR THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS. ANTICIPATE A RESURGENCE OF UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN THE
WEST...WITH A BIT MORE COVERAGE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MIDDAY. A
REINFORCING PIECE OF ENERGY WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND
TAPER CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE
GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT WITH DOWNSLOPE
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING IN THIS REGION. UPPER LOW WILL PIVOT DOWN INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT AND TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY. PLAYED
POPS CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND WITH BEST CHANCE IN THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID
30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THROUGH THURSDAY...THE FOCUS FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE ON A DEEP
CLOSED UPPER LOW PROGGED TO DIVE DOWN INTO THE DELMARVA
REGION...THEN SLOWLY LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND. THE
LOW WILL KEEP A PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WITH
VARIABLE CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...AND COOL TEMPERATURES. WITH THE REGION
REMAINING ON THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST...DRIER SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...QPF WILL BE MINIMAL...MAINLY A FEW SPRINKLES OR
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH NORTH OF U.S. 460...AND PERHAPS UP TO 1/4
INCH OVER THE THREE DAY PERIOD EASTERN WV MOUNTAIN UPSLOPE AREAS.
IN ADDITION...WITH A DEEP SFC LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE DELMARVA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LOW...GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP WED-
THU. SO...WHILE THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE
SCANT...CONDITIONS WED-THU WILL BE FAR FROM IDEAL WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUDS...CHILLY WINDS...AND SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. THE
WORST CONDITIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH BETTER
CONDITIONS...LESS CLOUDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES...ACROSS THE NC
PIEDMONT COUNTIES.

WITH RESPECT TO WINTER WEATHER CONCERNS...THERE REALLY ARE NONE.
THERE IS A POCKET OF NEAR 0C AIR WHICH DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE UPPER LOW LATE WED INTO THU...BUT MOVES ACROSS RAIN FREE
AREAS OF EASTERN KY/EASTERN TN/FAR SW VA...AND NW NC. AT THIS
POINT...NO PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED IN THESE AREAS.
OTHERWISE...LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ACROSS THE COLDER WESTERN
MOUNTAIN AREAS REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 1330-1340 RANGE...MUCH TOO
WARM FOR ANY CONCERN WITH WINTER PRECIPITATION. IN ADDITION...SFC
TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY WINTER
PCPN IN THE GRIDS AND REMOVED THE FEW PIXELS OF SNOW PREVIOUSLY
INDICATED ACROSS NW GREENBRIER. THE BIGGER CONCERN WITH THESE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL IN AREAS THAT
CLEAR...BUT TURBULENT MIXING/WIND MAY PREVENT THAT ONCE AGAIN.
NEAR NORMAL MIN TEMPS AND BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MID-WEEK IN NORTHERN AREAS...WITH READINGS CLOSER TO
NORMAL IN SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.

FOR FRIDAY...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN AT ODDS AS TO WHAT TO DO WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH THAT FOLLOWS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE CLOSED
LOW. WHILE A COUPLE OF RUNS BACK...THIS WAS SLATED TO STAY IN THE
SOUTHERN STATES...A HIGH AMPLITUDE...SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE UPPER RIDGE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL KEEP THIS FEATURE FURTHER NORTH. IN
ESSENCE...IT IS SOMEWHAT OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER...BUT HAS PRECIOUS
MOISTURE WITH WHICH TO WORK. GFS/ECMWF WANT TO GENERATE SOME -RA
WITH THIS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP ALL POPS
BELOW 15 PERCENT.

USED A MODEL BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...MAX
TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...AND
MIN TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT TUESDAY...

BENIGN...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BROAD UPPER RIDGE DRIFTS
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. INTO THE EASTERN U.S. THIS RIDGE WILL
EFFECTIVELY SHUT OFF ANY INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE...ACTUALLY
SUPPRESSED WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF COAST EVEN...AND LOCK THE COLD
CANADIAN AIR WELL NORTH OF THE BORDER WITH A STRONG ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THAT REGION. THE 850MB 0C ISOTHERM IS PROGGED TO REMAIN
MOSTLY NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH THE END OF OCTOBER.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO RISE INTO THE
+12C TO +14C...SO TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY MAX TEMPS...WITH MIN TEMPS CREEPING TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY AS WELL. SHOULD BE A
FANTASTIC WEEKEND TO VIEW THE BRILLIANT FALL FOLIAGE AROUND THE
REGION...WHICH IS AT ITS PEAK NOW IN MANY PARTS OF THE CWA AND
SURROUNDING AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT TUESDAY...

LEADING SHORTWAVE IN ADVANCE OF DEEPENING...SOON TO BE CLOSED
UPPER LOW MOVING EAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. NEXT LOBE OF PVA
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION BY AFTERNOON...WHICH
WILL AGAIN BE ASSOCIATED WITH -SHRA OR SPRINKLES...WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...AND INCREASINGLY STRONG/GUSTY W-WNW WINDS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. OVERNIGHT/EARLY WED...UPPER
LOW WILL DIVE TO A POSITION JUST SOUTH OF DCA/IAD...WITH SFC
CYCLOGENESIS JUST TO THE EAST ALONG THE COAST. AS A RESULT WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY OVERNIGHT...WITH EVEN
STRONGER/GUSTIER WINDS...POTENTIALLY TO 30KTS AT
ROA/BCB/BLF...POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY WED.

WITH RESPECT TO CIGS AND VSBYS...ALL TAF SITES WILL REMAIN ON THE
DRIER...SW SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. HOWEVER...THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC
LOW WILL RESULT IN INCREASE UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS AND
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THUS...CIGS WILL PROGRESSIVELY LOWER TO
IFR...POTENTIALLY EVEN HIGH END LIFR AT BLF/LWB/BCB AFT 00Z...AND
ESPECIALLY AFT 06Z. SCT -SHRA WILL ALSO CONTINUE AT TIMES...AT
THIS POINT MAINLY BECAUSE OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL CAA.
VISIBILITIES SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM WITH STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW AND
VERY LIGHT RAINFALL. MAY NEED TO WATCH BLF AFT 06Z IF CLOUD CIGS
LOWER BELOW 004...WHICH COULD RESULT IN MVFR-IFR VSBYS AT THAT
TIME. ROA/LYH/DAN ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT THE TAF
VALID PERIOD WITH VFR CLOUD CIGS.

WINDS WSW 5-8KTS WITH LOW END GUSTS THROUGH MIDDAY...BECOMING WNW
AND INCREASING TO 10-12KTS WITH GUSTS 20-22KTS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER ABOUT THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION THROUGH THU...THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY
FRI. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GUSTY WINDS
AND SCATTERED -SHRA THAT WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY THE PREFERRED
UPSLOPE REGION OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA INTO WED NIGHT OR EVEN
THURS MORNING. MVFR CLOUDS WILL THUS BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA TO LYH TO DAN
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE
CLOUDS IN WEST WILL SLOWLY BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...FOR DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE FRI-SUN.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...PM/RAB
AVIATION...KK/RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 211136
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
736 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD IN OUR DIRECTION...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT TUESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING AND TRAVEL INTO THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
REGIONAL WSR-88D IMAGES THIS MORNING SHOWED SCATTERED CONVECTION
ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA SOUTHWARD TO KENTUCKY MOVING EAST THIS MORNING.
INCREASED POPS FOR THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS. ANTICIPATE A RESURGENCE OF UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN THE
WEST...WITH A BIT MORE COVERAGE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MIDDAY. A
REINFORCING PIECE OF ENERGY WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND
TAPER CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE
GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT WITH DOWNSLOPE
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING IN THIS REGION. UPPER LOW WILL PIVOT DOWN INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT AND TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY. PLAYED
POPS CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND WITH BEST CHANCE IN THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID
30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THROUGH THURSDAY...THE FOCUS FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE ON A DEEP
CLOSED UPPER LOW PROGGED TO DIVE DOWN INTO THE DELMARVA
REGION...THEN SLOWLY LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND. THE
LOW WILL KEEP A PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WITH
VARIABLE CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...AND COOL TEMPERATURES. WITH THE REGION
REMAINING ON THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST...DRIER SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...QPF WILL BE MINIMAL...MAINLY A FEW SPRINKLES OR
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH NORTH OF U.S. 460...AND PERHAPS UP TO 1/4
INCH OVER THE THREE DAY PERIOD EASTERN WV MOUNTAIN UPSLOPE AREAS.
IN ADDITION...WITH A DEEP SFC LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE DELMARVA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LOW...GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP WED-
THU. SO...WHILE THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE
SCANT...CONDITIONS WED-THU WILL BE FAR FROM IDEAL WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUDS...CHILLY WINDS...AND SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. THE
WORST CONDITIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH BETTER
CONDITIONS...LESS CLOUDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES...ACROSS THE NC
PIEDMONT COUNTIES.

WITH RESPECT TO WINTER WEATHER CONCERNS...THERE REALLY ARE NONE.
THERE IS A POCKET OF NEAR 0C AIR WHICH DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE UPPER LOW LATE WED INTO THU...BUT MOVES ACROSS RAIN FREE
AREAS OF EASTERN KY/EASTERN TN/FAR SW VA...AND NW NC. AT THIS
POINT...NO PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED IN THESE AREAS.
OTHERWISE...LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ACROSS THE COLDER WESTERN
MOUNTAIN AREAS REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 1330-1340 RANGE...MUCH TOO
WARM FOR ANY CONCERN WITH WINTER PRECIPITATION. IN ADDITION...SFC
TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY WINTER
PCPN IN THE GRIDS AND REMOVED THE FEW PIXELS OF SNOW PREVIOUSLY
INDICATED ACROSS NW GREENBRIER. THE BIGGER CONCERN WITH THESE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL IN AREAS THAT
CLEAR...BUT TURBULENT MIXING/WIND MAY PREVENT THAT ONCE AGAIN.
NEAR NORMAL MIN TEMPS AND BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MID-WEEK IN NORTHERN AREAS...WITH READINGS CLOSER TO
NORMAL IN SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.

FOR FRIDAY...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN AT ODDS AS TO WHAT TO DO WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH THAT FOLLOWS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE CLOSED
LOW. WHILE A COUPLE OF RUNS BACK...THIS WAS SLATED TO STAY IN THE
SOUTHERN STATES...A HIGH AMPLITUDE...SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE UPPER RIDGE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL KEEP THIS FEATURE FURTHER NORTH. IN
ESSENCE...IT IS SOMEWHAT OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER...BUT HAS PRECIOUS
MOISTURE WITH WHICH TO WORK. GFS/ECMWF WANT TO GENERATE SOME -RA
WITH THIS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP ALL POPS
BELOW 15 PERCENT.

USED A MODEL BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...MAX
TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...AND
MIN TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT TUESDAY...

BENIGN...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BROAD UPPER RIDGE DRIFTS
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. INTO THE EASTERN U.S. THIS RIDGE WILL
EFFECTIVELY SHUT OFF ANY INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE...ACTUALLY
SUPPRESSED WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF COAST EVEN...AND LOCK THE COLD
CANADIAN AIR WELL NORTH OF THE BORDER WITH A STRONG ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THAT REGION. THE 850MB 0C ISOTHERM IS PROGGED TO REMAIN
MOSTLY NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH THE END OF OCTOBER.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO RISE INTO THE
+12C TO +14C...SO TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY MAX TEMPS...WITH MIN TEMPS CREEPING TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY AS WELL. SHOULD BE A
FANTASTIC WEEKEND TO VIEW THE BRILLIANT FALL FOLIAGE AROUND THE
REGION...WHICH IS AT ITS PEAK NOW IN MANY PARTS OF THE CWA AND
SURROUNDING AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT TUESDAY...

LEADING SHORTWAVE IN ADVANCE OF DEEPENING...SOON TO BE CLOSED
UPPER LOW MOVING EAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. NEXT LOBE OF PVA
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION BY AFTERNOON...WHICH
WILL AGAIN BE ASSOCIATED WITH -SHRA OR SPRINKLES...WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...AND INCREASINGLY STRONG/GUSTY W-WNW WINDS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. OVERNIGHT/EARLY WED...UPPER
LOW WILL DIVE TO A POSITION JUST SOUTH OF DCA/IAD...WITH SFC
CYCLOGENESIS JUST TO THE EAST ALONG THE COAST. AS A RESULT WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY OVERNIGHT...WITH EVEN
STRONGER/GUSTIER WINDS...POTENTIALLY TO 30KTS AT
ROA/BCB/BLF...POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY WED.

WITH RESPECT TO CIGS AND VSBYS...ALL TAF SITES WILL REMAIN ON THE
DRIER...SW SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. HOWEVER...THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC
LOW WILL RESULT IN INCREASE UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS AND
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THUS...CIGS WILL PROGRESSIVELY LOWER TO
IFR...POTENTIALLY EVEN HIGH END LIFR AT BLF/LWB/BCB AFT 00Z...AND
ESPECIALLY AFT 06Z. SCT -SHRA WILL ALSO CONTINUE AT TIMES...AT
THIS POINT MAINLY BECAUSE OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL CAA.
VISIBILITIES SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM WITH STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW AND
VERY LIGHT RAINFALL. MAY NEED TO WATCH BLF AFT 06Z IF CLOUD CIGS
LOWER BELOW 004...WHICH COULD RESULT IN MVFR-IFR VSBYS AT THAT
TIME. ROA/LYH/DAN ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT THE TAF
VALID PERIOD WITH VFR CLOUD CIGS.

WINDS WSW 5-8KTS WITH LOW END GUSTS THROUGH MIDDAY...BECOMING WNW
AND INCREASING TO 10-12KTS WITH GUSTS 20-22KTS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER ABOUT THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION THROUGH THU...THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY
FRI. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GUSTY WINDS
AND SCATTERED -SHRA THAT WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY THE PREFERRED
UPSLOPE REGION OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA INTO WED NIGHT OR EVEN
THURS MORNING. MVFR CLOUDS WILL THUS BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA TO LYH TO DAN
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE
CLOUDS IN WEST WILL SLOWLY BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...FOR DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE FRI-SUN.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...PM/RAB
AVIATION...KK/RAB



000
FXUS61 KRNK 211136
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
736 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD IN OUR DIRECTION...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT TUESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING AND TRAVEL INTO THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
REGIONAL WSR-88D IMAGES THIS MORNING SHOWED SCATTERED CONVECTION
ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA SOUTHWARD TO KENTUCKY MOVING EAST THIS MORNING.
INCREASED POPS FOR THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS. ANTICIPATE A RESURGENCE OF UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN THE
WEST...WITH A BIT MORE COVERAGE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MIDDAY. A
REINFORCING PIECE OF ENERGY WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND
TAPER CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE
GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT WITH DOWNSLOPE
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING IN THIS REGION. UPPER LOW WILL PIVOT DOWN INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT AND TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY. PLAYED
POPS CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND WITH BEST CHANCE IN THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID
30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THROUGH THURSDAY...THE FOCUS FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE ON A DEEP
CLOSED UPPER LOW PROGGED TO DIVE DOWN INTO THE DELMARVA
REGION...THEN SLOWLY LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND. THE
LOW WILL KEEP A PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WITH
VARIABLE CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...AND COOL TEMPERATURES. WITH THE REGION
REMAINING ON THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST...DRIER SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...QPF WILL BE MINIMAL...MAINLY A FEW SPRINKLES OR
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH NORTH OF U.S. 460...AND PERHAPS UP TO 1/4
INCH OVER THE THREE DAY PERIOD EASTERN WV MOUNTAIN UPSLOPE AREAS.
IN ADDITION...WITH A DEEP SFC LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE DELMARVA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LOW...GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP WED-
THU. SO...WHILE THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE
SCANT...CONDITIONS WED-THU WILL BE FAR FROM IDEAL WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUDS...CHILLY WINDS...AND SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. THE
WORST CONDITIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH BETTER
CONDITIONS...LESS CLOUDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES...ACROSS THE NC
PIEDMONT COUNTIES.

WITH RESPECT TO WINTER WEATHER CONCERNS...THERE REALLY ARE NONE.
THERE IS A POCKET OF NEAR 0C AIR WHICH DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE UPPER LOW LATE WED INTO THU...BUT MOVES ACROSS RAIN FREE
AREAS OF EASTERN KY/EASTERN TN/FAR SW VA...AND NW NC. AT THIS
POINT...NO PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED IN THESE AREAS.
OTHERWISE...LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ACROSS THE COLDER WESTERN
MOUNTAIN AREAS REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 1330-1340 RANGE...MUCH TOO
WARM FOR ANY CONCERN WITH WINTER PRECIPITATION. IN ADDITION...SFC
TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY WINTER
PCPN IN THE GRIDS AND REMOVED THE FEW PIXELS OF SNOW PREVIOUSLY
INDICATED ACROSS NW GREENBRIER. THE BIGGER CONCERN WITH THESE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL IN AREAS THAT
CLEAR...BUT TURBULENT MIXING/WIND MAY PREVENT THAT ONCE AGAIN.
NEAR NORMAL MIN TEMPS AND BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MID-WEEK IN NORTHERN AREAS...WITH READINGS CLOSER TO
NORMAL IN SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.

FOR FRIDAY...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN AT ODDS AS TO WHAT TO DO WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH THAT FOLLOWS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE CLOSED
LOW. WHILE A COUPLE OF RUNS BACK...THIS WAS SLATED TO STAY IN THE
SOUTHERN STATES...A HIGH AMPLITUDE...SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE UPPER RIDGE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL KEEP THIS FEATURE FURTHER NORTH. IN
ESSENCE...IT IS SOMEWHAT OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER...BUT HAS PRECIOUS
MOISTURE WITH WHICH TO WORK. GFS/ECMWF WANT TO GENERATE SOME -RA
WITH THIS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP ALL POPS
BELOW 15 PERCENT.

USED A MODEL BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...MAX
TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...AND
MIN TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT TUESDAY...

BENIGN...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BROAD UPPER RIDGE DRIFTS
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. INTO THE EASTERN U.S. THIS RIDGE WILL
EFFECTIVELY SHUT OFF ANY INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE...ACTUALLY
SUPPRESSED WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF COAST EVEN...AND LOCK THE COLD
CANADIAN AIR WELL NORTH OF THE BORDER WITH A STRONG ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THAT REGION. THE 850MB 0C ISOTHERM IS PROGGED TO REMAIN
MOSTLY NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH THE END OF OCTOBER.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO RISE INTO THE
+12C TO +14C...SO TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY MAX TEMPS...WITH MIN TEMPS CREEPING TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY AS WELL. SHOULD BE A
FANTASTIC WEEKEND TO VIEW THE BRILLIANT FALL FOLIAGE AROUND THE
REGION...WHICH IS AT ITS PEAK NOW IN MANY PARTS OF THE CWA AND
SURROUNDING AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT TUESDAY...

LEADING SHORTWAVE IN ADVANCE OF DEEPENING...SOON TO BE CLOSED
UPPER LOW MOVING EAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. NEXT LOBE OF PVA
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION BY AFTERNOON...WHICH
WILL AGAIN BE ASSOCIATED WITH -SHRA OR SPRINKLES...WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...AND INCREASINGLY STRONG/GUSTY W-WNW WINDS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. OVERNIGHT/EARLY WED...UPPER
LOW WILL DIVE TO A POSITION JUST SOUTH OF DCA/IAD...WITH SFC
CYCLOGENESIS JUST TO THE EAST ALONG THE COAST. AS A RESULT WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY OVERNIGHT...WITH EVEN
STRONGER/GUSTIER WINDS...POTENTIALLY TO 30KTS AT
ROA/BCB/BLF...POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY WED.

WITH RESPECT TO CIGS AND VSBYS...ALL TAF SITES WILL REMAIN ON THE
DRIER...SW SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. HOWEVER...THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC
LOW WILL RESULT IN INCREASE UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS AND
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THUS...CIGS WILL PROGRESSIVELY LOWER TO
IFR...POTENTIALLY EVEN HIGH END LIFR AT BLF/LWB/BCB AFT 00Z...AND
ESPECIALLY AFT 06Z. SCT -SHRA WILL ALSO CONTINUE AT TIMES...AT
THIS POINT MAINLY BECAUSE OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL CAA.
VISIBILITIES SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM WITH STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW AND
VERY LIGHT RAINFALL. MAY NEED TO WATCH BLF AFT 06Z IF CLOUD CIGS
LOWER BELOW 004...WHICH COULD RESULT IN MVFR-IFR VSBYS AT THAT
TIME. ROA/LYH/DAN ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT THE TAF
VALID PERIOD WITH VFR CLOUD CIGS.

WINDS WSW 5-8KTS WITH LOW END GUSTS THROUGH MIDDAY...BECOMING WNW
AND INCREASING TO 10-12KTS WITH GUSTS 20-22KTS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER ABOUT THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION THROUGH THU...THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY
FRI. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GUSTY WINDS
AND SCATTERED -SHRA THAT WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY THE PREFERRED
UPSLOPE REGION OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA INTO WED NIGHT OR EVEN
THURS MORNING. MVFR CLOUDS WILL THUS BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA TO LYH TO DAN
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE
CLOUDS IN WEST WILL SLOWLY BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...FOR DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE FRI-SUN.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...PM/RAB
AVIATION...KK/RAB




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210904
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
504 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...AND PUSHES OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS AND BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ONTARIO WITH A
TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW FROM THE LOW DOWN THROUGH THE
OH VALLEY. WEAK/ELONGATED SHORTWAVE ALOFT IS PUSHING EAST ACRS THE
CWA AND HAS ALLOWED FOR ENOUGH LIFT TO DEVELOP SOME VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES OVER THE REGION (GENLY TOO DRY IN LOW LEVELS FOR
ANYTHING MEASURABLE THUS FAR). MOISTURE WILL TEND TO DIMINISH FROM W
TO E THROUGH 12Z AS DRY SLOT PUSHES BACK IN FROM THE SW BUT WILL
MAINTAIN 20% POPS E OF I-95 THROUGH 12Z.

AFTER 12Z...WILL TEND TO SALVAGE A PRETTY NICE DAY ACRS MOST OF THE
LOCAL AREA AS SKIES BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND WINDS SHIFT TO
THE WEST. WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING OFF MUCH MILDER THAN YESTERDAY
MORNING...SUN AND MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR FAIRLY RAPID WARMING
THROUGH THE 60S AND INTO THE LOWER 70S BY EARLY AFTN. WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SEEN ON WV SATELLITE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES PROGGED TO DIVE SE AROUND THE BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER
LOW...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS FROM NW TO SE THIS AFTN. HIGH RES
MODELS SHOWING A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY
ACRS NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA AFTER 18Z...GRADUALLY ADVECTING THIS SE
TO THE COAST PRIOR TO 00Z THIS EVENING. DUE TO DRY LOW LEVELS (DEW
PTS IN 40S)...EXPECT THAT RADAR COVERAGE THIS AFTN WILL LOOK MORE
IMPRESSIVE THAN REALITY AND THUS WILL KEEP POPS CAPPED IN CHANCE
RANGE...AROUND 40% ACRS THE NORTH AFTER 20Z...TAPERED TO 20% OR
LOWER ACRS THE SOUTH. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...< .10". HIGHS
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACRS THE FAR SE (WHERE
CLOUDS ARE SLOWER TO PUSH IN THIS AFTN)...TO THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70
F OVER THE NW DUE TO EARLIER ONSET OF CLOUDS AN POTENTIAL SHOWERS.
ALSO...DUE TO THE LOW DEW PTS...IF MEASURABLE RAINFALL DOES
OCCUR...TEMPS LATE THIS AFTN WOULD POTENTIALLY DROP INTO THE LOWER
60S OR COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLOW CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A BLOCKING
PATTERN DEVELOPS OVER ERN CANADA. THE UPPER LOW WILL PROGRESS
SLOWLY EWD OVERNIGHT INTO WED...LOCATING OFF THE DELMARVA COAST
LATE WED. WITH THE UPR LOW PIVOTING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT...WILL
SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DEVELOP ESPECIALLY NORTH/NE WHERE
BEST UPWARD MOTION IS ANTICIPATED. LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE (H5 TO H7 LAPSE RATES OF 6.5 TO 7C) AND IF IT WERE
SPRING WOULD ADD TSTMS TO THE FORECAST. LOW LEVELS ARE PROGGED TO
BE FAIRLY STABLE HOWEVER SO FOR NOW HAVE KEPT TSTMS OUT OF FORECAST
BUT CERTAINLY COULD HAVE SOME ELEVATED TSTMS AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY IN THESE
AREAS...TAPERED TO LOWER CHANCES FARTHER S/W WHERE DEEP MOISTURE
IS GENLY NOT PRESENT. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND OFFSHORE WED.
AFTER A BRIEF INCREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE BETWEEN 09-15Z...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FAIRLY DRY ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS AS THE TROUGH/SFC
REFLECTION SWING FARTHER OFFSHORE...HOWEVER A FAIRLY SHARP
MOSITURE GRADIENT PROGGED ALONG THE COAST. THE ERN SHORE IN
PARTICULAR APPEARS TO BE SET FOR A CLOUDY/COOL DAY WITH SHOWERS
LIKELY AT LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING HRS. WILL THEREFORE KEEP CHC POPS
LIMITED TO AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND NE OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR
WED...WITH EMPHASIS OF 60-70% POPS ON THE EASTERN SHORE. COULD END
UP BEING DRY OVER FAR SW ZONES. QPF AMOUNTS WILL AVG 0.25-0.50" ON
THE ERN SHORE...GENLY ONLY AROUND .10" OR LESS ELSEWHERE. FAVOR
COOLER END OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...MID 60S SW TO AROUND 60/LOWER
60S NE. OTHER FEATURE TO NOTE WILL BE THE INCREASING NW WINDS BY
AFTN AS THE SFC LOW INTENSIFIES FAIRLY RAPIDLY OFF THE COAST.
GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATER AFTN/EVENING.

THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE WED NIGHT INTO THU...LOCATING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 00Z FRIDAY. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWER CHANCES
BY THEN WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN SHORE (20%). DECREASING
CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE
LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. COOL AGAIN THU ALTHOUGH WITH A BIT MORE SUN
SHOULD SEE HIGHS INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S WELL INLAND WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE LOWER 60S FARTHER NE. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
TIGHT IN BETWEEN SUB 1000 MB SFC LOW OFF LONG ISLAND AND 1020 MB
SFC HIGH OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY. EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACRS THE ERN SHORE...AROUND 30 MPH ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ERN US EARLY
NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE MID 60S
TO AROUND 70 FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S SUNDAY...AND POTENTIALLY 70-75 BY MONDAY. LOWS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO THIS EVENG OVR THE TAF
SITES...WITH PERIODS OF MID LVL CLOUDINESS...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES ACRS THE AREA. LATER TNGT THRU THU...LO PRES WILL INTENSIFY
OFF THE NEW JERSEY AND NEW ENGLAND CSTS. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR
SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS...ESPLY OVR NRN AND ERN PORTIONS LATE TNGT
INTO WED NGT. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY THU AT SBY. THE LO
PRES SYSTEM WILL MOVE FARTHER AWAY TO THE NE AND HI PRES BLDS IN
FM THE NNW THU NGT INTO SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...AND ASSOCIATED WIND SPEEDS FM THE
NW STARTING WED AFTN DUE TO INTENSIFYING LO PRES OFF THE CST...HAVE
HOISTED SCA`S FOR ALL WTRS STARTING WED AFTN AND WILL MAINTAIN THEM
THRU AT LEAST THU AFTN FOR NOW. AT THIS TIME...HAVE GUSTS TO ARND 30
KT OVR THE CHES BAY ZNS AND CSTL ZNS FM EARLY WED EVENG THRU THU.
WITH FLOW BEING OFFSHR FM THE NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT
5-6 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT AND
SEAS SUBSIDING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 5 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ630>638-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...AJZ/TMG







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210904
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
504 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...AND PUSHES OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS AND BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ONTARIO WITH A
TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW FROM THE LOW DOWN THROUGH THE
OH VALLEY. WEAK/ELONGATED SHORTWAVE ALOFT IS PUSHING EAST ACRS THE
CWA AND HAS ALLOWED FOR ENOUGH LIFT TO DEVELOP SOME VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES OVER THE REGION (GENLY TOO DRY IN LOW LEVELS FOR
ANYTHING MEASURABLE THUS FAR). MOISTURE WILL TEND TO DIMINISH FROM W
TO E THROUGH 12Z AS DRY SLOT PUSHES BACK IN FROM THE SW BUT WILL
MAINTAIN 20% POPS E OF I-95 THROUGH 12Z.

AFTER 12Z...WILL TEND TO SALVAGE A PRETTY NICE DAY ACRS MOST OF THE
LOCAL AREA AS SKIES BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND WINDS SHIFT TO
THE WEST. WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING OFF MUCH MILDER THAN YESTERDAY
MORNING...SUN AND MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR FAIRLY RAPID WARMING
THROUGH THE 60S AND INTO THE LOWER 70S BY EARLY AFTN. WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SEEN ON WV SATELLITE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES PROGGED TO DIVE SE AROUND THE BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER
LOW...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS FROM NW TO SE THIS AFTN. HIGH RES
MODELS SHOWING A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY
ACRS NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA AFTER 18Z...GRADUALLY ADVECTING THIS SE
TO THE COAST PRIOR TO 00Z THIS EVENING. DUE TO DRY LOW LEVELS (DEW
PTS IN 40S)...EXPECT THAT RADAR COVERAGE THIS AFTN WILL LOOK MORE
IMPRESSIVE THAN REALITY AND THUS WILL KEEP POPS CAPPED IN CHANCE
RANGE...AROUND 40% ACRS THE NORTH AFTER 20Z...TAPERED TO 20% OR
LOWER ACRS THE SOUTH. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...< .10". HIGHS
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACRS THE FAR SE (WHERE
CLOUDS ARE SLOWER TO PUSH IN THIS AFTN)...TO THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70
F OVER THE NW DUE TO EARLIER ONSET OF CLOUDS AN POTENTIAL SHOWERS.
ALSO...DUE TO THE LOW DEW PTS...IF MEASURABLE RAINFALL DOES
OCCUR...TEMPS LATE THIS AFTN WOULD POTENTIALLY DROP INTO THE LOWER
60S OR COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLOW CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A BLOCKING
PATTERN DEVELOPS OVER ERN CANADA. THE UPPER LOW WILL PROGRESS
SLOWLY EWD OVERNIGHT INTO WED...LOCATING OFF THE DELMARVA COAST
LATE WED. WITH THE UPR LOW PIVOTING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT...WILL
SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DEVELOP ESPECIALLY NORTH/NE WHERE
BEST UPWARD MOTION IS ANTICIPATED. LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE (H5 TO H7 LAPSE RATES OF 6.5 TO 7C) AND IF IT WERE
SPRING WOULD ADD TSTMS TO THE FORECAST. LOW LEVELS ARE PROGGED TO
BE FAIRLY STABLE HOWEVER SO FOR NOW HAVE KEPT TSTMS OUT OF FORECAST
BUT CERTAINLY COULD HAVE SOME ELEVATED TSTMS AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY IN THESE
AREAS...TAPERED TO LOWER CHANCES FARTHER S/W WHERE DEEP MOISTURE
IS GENLY NOT PRESENT. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND OFFSHORE WED.
AFTER A BRIEF INCREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE BETWEEN 09-15Z...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FAIRLY DRY ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS AS THE TROUGH/SFC
REFLECTION SWING FARTHER OFFSHORE...HOWEVER A FAIRLY SHARP
MOSITURE GRADIENT PROGGED ALONG THE COAST. THE ERN SHORE IN
PARTICULAR APPEARS TO BE SET FOR A CLOUDY/COOL DAY WITH SHOWERS
LIKELY AT LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING HRS. WILL THEREFORE KEEP CHC POPS
LIMITED TO AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND NE OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR
WED...WITH EMPHASIS OF 60-70% POPS ON THE EASTERN SHORE. COULD END
UP BEING DRY OVER FAR SW ZONES. QPF AMOUNTS WILL AVG 0.25-0.50" ON
THE ERN SHORE...GENLY ONLY AROUND .10" OR LESS ELSEWHERE. FAVOR
COOLER END OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...MID 60S SW TO AROUND 60/LOWER
60S NE. OTHER FEATURE TO NOTE WILL BE THE INCREASING NW WINDS BY
AFTN AS THE SFC LOW INTENSIFIES FAIRLY RAPIDLY OFF THE COAST.
GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATER AFTN/EVENING.

THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE WED NIGHT INTO THU...LOCATING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 00Z FRIDAY. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWER CHANCES
BY THEN WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN SHORE (20%). DECREASING
CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE
LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. COOL AGAIN THU ALTHOUGH WITH A BIT MORE SUN
SHOULD SEE HIGHS INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S WELL INLAND WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE LOWER 60S FARTHER NE. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
TIGHT IN BETWEEN SUB 1000 MB SFC LOW OFF LONG ISLAND AND 1020 MB
SFC HIGH OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY. EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACRS THE ERN SHORE...AROUND 30 MPH ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ERN US EARLY
NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE MID 60S
TO AROUND 70 FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S SUNDAY...AND POTENTIALLY 70-75 BY MONDAY. LOWS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO THIS EVENG OVR THE TAF
SITES...WITH PERIODS OF MID LVL CLOUDINESS...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES ACRS THE AREA. LATER TNGT THRU THU...LO PRES WILL INTENSIFY
OFF THE NEW JERSEY AND NEW ENGLAND CSTS. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR
SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS...ESPLY OVR NRN AND ERN PORTIONS LATE TNGT
INTO WED NGT. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY THU AT SBY. THE LO
PRES SYSTEM WILL MOVE FARTHER AWAY TO THE NE AND HI PRES BLDS IN
FM THE NNW THU NGT INTO SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...AND ASSOCIATED WIND SPEEDS FM THE
NW STARTING WED AFTN DUE TO INTENSIFYING LO PRES OFF THE CST...HAVE
HOISTED SCA`S FOR ALL WTRS STARTING WED AFTN AND WILL MAINTAIN THEM
THRU AT LEAST THU AFTN FOR NOW. AT THIS TIME...HAVE GUSTS TO ARND 30
KT OVR THE CHES BAY ZNS AND CSTL ZNS FM EARLY WED EVENG THRU THU.
WITH FLOW BEING OFFSHR FM THE NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT
5-6 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT AND
SEAS SUBSIDING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 5 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ630>638-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...AJZ/TMG







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210904
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
504 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...AND PUSHES OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS AND BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ONTARIO WITH A
TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW FROM THE LOW DOWN THROUGH THE
OH VALLEY. WEAK/ELONGATED SHORTWAVE ALOFT IS PUSHING EAST ACRS THE
CWA AND HAS ALLOWED FOR ENOUGH LIFT TO DEVELOP SOME VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES OVER THE REGION (GENLY TOO DRY IN LOW LEVELS FOR
ANYTHING MEASURABLE THUS FAR). MOISTURE WILL TEND TO DIMINISH FROM W
TO E THROUGH 12Z AS DRY SLOT PUSHES BACK IN FROM THE SW BUT WILL
MAINTAIN 20% POPS E OF I-95 THROUGH 12Z.

AFTER 12Z...WILL TEND TO SALVAGE A PRETTY NICE DAY ACRS MOST OF THE
LOCAL AREA AS SKIES BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND WINDS SHIFT TO
THE WEST. WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING OFF MUCH MILDER THAN YESTERDAY
MORNING...SUN AND MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR FAIRLY RAPID WARMING
THROUGH THE 60S AND INTO THE LOWER 70S BY EARLY AFTN. WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SEEN ON WV SATELLITE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES PROGGED TO DIVE SE AROUND THE BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER
LOW...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS FROM NW TO SE THIS AFTN. HIGH RES
MODELS SHOWING A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY
ACRS NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA AFTER 18Z...GRADUALLY ADVECTING THIS SE
TO THE COAST PRIOR TO 00Z THIS EVENING. DUE TO DRY LOW LEVELS (DEW
PTS IN 40S)...EXPECT THAT RADAR COVERAGE THIS AFTN WILL LOOK MORE
IMPRESSIVE THAN REALITY AND THUS WILL KEEP POPS CAPPED IN CHANCE
RANGE...AROUND 40% ACRS THE NORTH AFTER 20Z...TAPERED TO 20% OR
LOWER ACRS THE SOUTH. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...< .10". HIGHS
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACRS THE FAR SE (WHERE
CLOUDS ARE SLOWER TO PUSH IN THIS AFTN)...TO THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70
F OVER THE NW DUE TO EARLIER ONSET OF CLOUDS AN POTENTIAL SHOWERS.
ALSO...DUE TO THE LOW DEW PTS...IF MEASURABLE RAINFALL DOES
OCCUR...TEMPS LATE THIS AFTN WOULD POTENTIALLY DROP INTO THE LOWER
60S OR COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLOW CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A BLOCKING
PATTERN DEVELOPS OVER ERN CANADA. THE UPPER LOW WILL PROGRESS
SLOWLY EWD OVERNIGHT INTO WED...LOCATING OFF THE DELMARVA COAST
LATE WED. WITH THE UPR LOW PIVOTING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT...WILL
SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DEVELOP ESPECIALLY NORTH/NE WHERE
BEST UPWARD MOTION IS ANTICIPATED. LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE (H5 TO H7 LAPSE RATES OF 6.5 TO 7C) AND IF IT WERE
SPRING WOULD ADD TSTMS TO THE FORECAST. LOW LEVELS ARE PROGGED TO
BE FAIRLY STABLE HOWEVER SO FOR NOW HAVE KEPT TSTMS OUT OF FORECAST
BUT CERTAINLY COULD HAVE SOME ELEVATED TSTMS AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY IN THESE
AREAS...TAPERED TO LOWER CHANCES FARTHER S/W WHERE DEEP MOISTURE
IS GENLY NOT PRESENT. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND OFFSHORE WED.
AFTER A BRIEF INCREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE BETWEEN 09-15Z...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FAIRLY DRY ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS AS THE TROUGH/SFC
REFLECTION SWING FARTHER OFFSHORE...HOWEVER A FAIRLY SHARP
MOSITURE GRADIENT PROGGED ALONG THE COAST. THE ERN SHORE IN
PARTICULAR APPEARS TO BE SET FOR A CLOUDY/COOL DAY WITH SHOWERS
LIKELY AT LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING HRS. WILL THEREFORE KEEP CHC POPS
LIMITED TO AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND NE OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR
WED...WITH EMPHASIS OF 60-70% POPS ON THE EASTERN SHORE. COULD END
UP BEING DRY OVER FAR SW ZONES. QPF AMOUNTS WILL AVG 0.25-0.50" ON
THE ERN SHORE...GENLY ONLY AROUND .10" OR LESS ELSEWHERE. FAVOR
COOLER END OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...MID 60S SW TO AROUND 60/LOWER
60S NE. OTHER FEATURE TO NOTE WILL BE THE INCREASING NW WINDS BY
AFTN AS THE SFC LOW INTENSIFIES FAIRLY RAPIDLY OFF THE COAST.
GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATER AFTN/EVENING.

THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE WED NIGHT INTO THU...LOCATING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 00Z FRIDAY. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWER CHANCES
BY THEN WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN SHORE (20%). DECREASING
CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE
LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. COOL AGAIN THU ALTHOUGH WITH A BIT MORE SUN
SHOULD SEE HIGHS INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S WELL INLAND WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE LOWER 60S FARTHER NE. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
TIGHT IN BETWEEN SUB 1000 MB SFC LOW OFF LONG ISLAND AND 1020 MB
SFC HIGH OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY. EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACRS THE ERN SHORE...AROUND 30 MPH ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ERN US EARLY
NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE MID 60S
TO AROUND 70 FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S SUNDAY...AND POTENTIALLY 70-75 BY MONDAY. LOWS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO THIS EVENG OVR THE TAF
SITES...WITH PERIODS OF MID LVL CLOUDINESS...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES ACRS THE AREA. LATER TNGT THRU THU...LO PRES WILL INTENSIFY
OFF THE NEW JERSEY AND NEW ENGLAND CSTS. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR
SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS...ESPLY OVR NRN AND ERN PORTIONS LATE TNGT
INTO WED NGT. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY THU AT SBY. THE LO
PRES SYSTEM WILL MOVE FARTHER AWAY TO THE NE AND HI PRES BLDS IN
FM THE NNW THU NGT INTO SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...AND ASSOCIATED WIND SPEEDS FM THE
NW STARTING WED AFTN DUE TO INTENSIFYING LO PRES OFF THE CST...HAVE
HOISTED SCA`S FOR ALL WTRS STARTING WED AFTN AND WILL MAINTAIN THEM
THRU AT LEAST THU AFTN FOR NOW. AT THIS TIME...HAVE GUSTS TO ARND 30
KT OVR THE CHES BAY ZNS AND CSTL ZNS FM EARLY WED EVENG THRU THU.
WITH FLOW BEING OFFSHR FM THE NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT
5-6 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT AND
SEAS SUBSIDING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 5 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ630>638-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...AJZ/TMG







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210904
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
504 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...AND PUSHES OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS AND BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ONTARIO WITH A
TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW FROM THE LOW DOWN THROUGH THE
OH VALLEY. WEAK/ELONGATED SHORTWAVE ALOFT IS PUSHING EAST ACRS THE
CWA AND HAS ALLOWED FOR ENOUGH LIFT TO DEVELOP SOME VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES OVER THE REGION (GENLY TOO DRY IN LOW LEVELS FOR
ANYTHING MEASURABLE THUS FAR). MOISTURE WILL TEND TO DIMINISH FROM W
TO E THROUGH 12Z AS DRY SLOT PUSHES BACK IN FROM THE SW BUT WILL
MAINTAIN 20% POPS E OF I-95 THROUGH 12Z.

AFTER 12Z...WILL TEND TO SALVAGE A PRETTY NICE DAY ACRS MOST OF THE
LOCAL AREA AS SKIES BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND WINDS SHIFT TO
THE WEST. WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING OFF MUCH MILDER THAN YESTERDAY
MORNING...SUN AND MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR FAIRLY RAPID WARMING
THROUGH THE 60S AND INTO THE LOWER 70S BY EARLY AFTN. WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SEEN ON WV SATELLITE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES PROGGED TO DIVE SE AROUND THE BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER
LOW...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS FROM NW TO SE THIS AFTN. HIGH RES
MODELS SHOWING A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY
ACRS NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA AFTER 18Z...GRADUALLY ADVECTING THIS SE
TO THE COAST PRIOR TO 00Z THIS EVENING. DUE TO DRY LOW LEVELS (DEW
PTS IN 40S)...EXPECT THAT RADAR COVERAGE THIS AFTN WILL LOOK MORE
IMPRESSIVE THAN REALITY AND THUS WILL KEEP POPS CAPPED IN CHANCE
RANGE...AROUND 40% ACRS THE NORTH AFTER 20Z...TAPERED TO 20% OR
LOWER ACRS THE SOUTH. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...< .10". HIGHS
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACRS THE FAR SE (WHERE
CLOUDS ARE SLOWER TO PUSH IN THIS AFTN)...TO THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70
F OVER THE NW DUE TO EARLIER ONSET OF CLOUDS AN POTENTIAL SHOWERS.
ALSO...DUE TO THE LOW DEW PTS...IF MEASURABLE RAINFALL DOES
OCCUR...TEMPS LATE THIS AFTN WOULD POTENTIALLY DROP INTO THE LOWER
60S OR COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLOW CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A BLOCKING
PATTERN DEVELOPS OVER ERN CANADA. THE UPPER LOW WILL PROGRESS
SLOWLY EWD OVERNIGHT INTO WED...LOCATING OFF THE DELMARVA COAST
LATE WED. WITH THE UPR LOW PIVOTING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT...WILL
SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DEVELOP ESPECIALLY NORTH/NE WHERE
BEST UPWARD MOTION IS ANTICIPATED. LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE (H5 TO H7 LAPSE RATES OF 6.5 TO 7C) AND IF IT WERE
SPRING WOULD ADD TSTMS TO THE FORECAST. LOW LEVELS ARE PROGGED TO
BE FAIRLY STABLE HOWEVER SO FOR NOW HAVE KEPT TSTMS OUT OF FORECAST
BUT CERTAINLY COULD HAVE SOME ELEVATED TSTMS AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY IN THESE
AREAS...TAPERED TO LOWER CHANCES FARTHER S/W WHERE DEEP MOISTURE
IS GENLY NOT PRESENT. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND OFFSHORE WED.
AFTER A BRIEF INCREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE BETWEEN 09-15Z...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FAIRLY DRY ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS AS THE TROUGH/SFC
REFLECTION SWING FARTHER OFFSHORE...HOWEVER A FAIRLY SHARP
MOSITURE GRADIENT PROGGED ALONG THE COAST. THE ERN SHORE IN
PARTICULAR APPEARS TO BE SET FOR A CLOUDY/COOL DAY WITH SHOWERS
LIKELY AT LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING HRS. WILL THEREFORE KEEP CHC POPS
LIMITED TO AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND NE OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR
WED...WITH EMPHASIS OF 60-70% POPS ON THE EASTERN SHORE. COULD END
UP BEING DRY OVER FAR SW ZONES. QPF AMOUNTS WILL AVG 0.25-0.50" ON
THE ERN SHORE...GENLY ONLY AROUND .10" OR LESS ELSEWHERE. FAVOR
COOLER END OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...MID 60S SW TO AROUND 60/LOWER
60S NE. OTHER FEATURE TO NOTE WILL BE THE INCREASING NW WINDS BY
AFTN AS THE SFC LOW INTENSIFIES FAIRLY RAPIDLY OFF THE COAST.
GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATER AFTN/EVENING.

THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE WED NIGHT INTO THU...LOCATING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 00Z FRIDAY. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWER CHANCES
BY THEN WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN SHORE (20%). DECREASING
CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE
LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. COOL AGAIN THU ALTHOUGH WITH A BIT MORE SUN
SHOULD SEE HIGHS INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S WELL INLAND WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE LOWER 60S FARTHER NE. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
TIGHT IN BETWEEN SUB 1000 MB SFC LOW OFF LONG ISLAND AND 1020 MB
SFC HIGH OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY. EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACRS THE ERN SHORE...AROUND 30 MPH ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ERN US EARLY
NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE MID 60S
TO AROUND 70 FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S SUNDAY...AND POTENTIALLY 70-75 BY MONDAY. LOWS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO THIS EVENG OVR THE TAF
SITES...WITH PERIODS OF MID LVL CLOUDINESS...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES ACRS THE AREA. LATER TNGT THRU THU...LO PRES WILL INTENSIFY
OFF THE NEW JERSEY AND NEW ENGLAND CSTS. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR
SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS...ESPLY OVR NRN AND ERN PORTIONS LATE TNGT
INTO WED NGT. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY THU AT SBY. THE LO
PRES SYSTEM WILL MOVE FARTHER AWAY TO THE NE AND HI PRES BLDS IN
FM THE NNW THU NGT INTO SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...AND ASSOCIATED WIND SPEEDS FM THE
NW STARTING WED AFTN DUE TO INTENSIFYING LO PRES OFF THE CST...HAVE
HOISTED SCA`S FOR ALL WTRS STARTING WED AFTN AND WILL MAINTAIN THEM
THRU AT LEAST THU AFTN FOR NOW. AT THIS TIME...HAVE GUSTS TO ARND 30
KT OVR THE CHES BAY ZNS AND CSTL ZNS FM EARLY WED EVENG THRU THU.
WITH FLOW BEING OFFSHR FM THE NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT
5-6 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT AND
SEAS SUBSIDING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 5 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ630>638-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...AJZ/TMG







000
FXUS61 KRNK 210858
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
458 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD IN OUR DIRECTION...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT TUESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING AND TRAVEL INTO THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
REGIONAL WSR-88D IMAGES THIS MORNING SHOWED SCATTERED CONVECTION
ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA SOUTHWARD TO KENTUCKY MOVING EAST THIS MORNING.
INCREASED POPS FOR THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS. ANTICIPATE A RESURGENCE OF UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN THE
WEST...WITH A BIT MORE COVERAGE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MIDDAY. A
REINFORCING PIECE OF ENERGY WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND
TAPER CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE
GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT WITH DOWNSLOPE
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING IN THIS REGION. UPPER LOW WILL PIVOT DOWN INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT AND TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY. PLAYED
POPS CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND WITH BEST CHANCE IN THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID
30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THROUGH THURSDAY...THE FOCUS FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE ON A DEEP
CLOSED UPPER LOW PROGGED TO DIVE DOWN INTO THE DELMARVA
REGION...THEN SLOWLY LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND. THE
LOW WILL KEEP A PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WITH
VARIABLE CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...AND COOL TEMPERATURES. WITH THE REGION
REMAINING ON THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST...DRIER SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...QPF WILL BE MINIMAL...MAINLY A FEW SPRINKLES OR
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH NORTH OF U.S. 460...AND PERHAPS UP TO 1/4
INCH OVER THE THREE DAY PERIOD EASTERN WV MOUNTAIN UPSLOPE AREAS.
IN ADDITION...WITH A DEEP SFC LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE DELMARVA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LOW...GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP WED-
THU. SO...WHILE THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE
SCANT...CONDITIONS WED-THU WILL BE FAR FROM IDEAL WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUDS...CHILLY WINDS...AND SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. THE
WORST CONDITIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH BETTER
CONDITIONS...LESS CLOUDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES...ACROSS THE NC
PIEDMONT COUNTIES.

WITH RESPECT TO WINTER WEATHER CONCERNS...THERE REALLY ARE NONE.
THERE IS A POCKET OF NEAR 0C AIR WHICH DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE UPPER LOW LATE WED INTO THU...BUT MOVES ACROSS RAIN FREE
AREAS OF EASTERN KY/EASTERN TN/FAR SW VA...AND NW NC. AT THIS
POINT...NO PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED IN THESE AREAS.
OTHERWISE...LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ACROSS THE COLDER WESTERN
MOUNTAIN AREAS REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 1330-1340 RANGE...MUCH TOO
WARM FOR ANY CONCERN WITH WINTER PRECIPITATION. IN ADDITION...SFC
TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY WINTER
PCPN IN THE GRIDS AND REMOVED THE FEW PIXELS OF SNOW PREVIOUSLY
INDICATED ACROSS NW GREENBRIER. THE BIGGER CONCERN WITH THESE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL IN AREAS THAT
CLEAR...BUT TURBULENT MIXING/WIND MAY PREVENT THAT ONCE AGAIN.
NEAR NORMAL MIN TEMPS AND BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MID-WEEK IN NORTHERN AREAS...WITH READINGS CLOSER TO
NORMAL IN SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.

FOR FRIDAY...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN AT ODDS AS TO WHAT TO DO WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH THAT FOLLOWS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE CLOSED
LOW. WHILE A COUPLE OF RUNS BACK...THIS WAS SLATED TO STAY IN THE
SOUTHERN STATES...A HIGH AMPLITUDE...SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE UPPER RIDGE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL KEEP THIS FEATURE FURTHER NORTH. IN
ESSENCE...IT IS SOMEWHAT OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER...BUT HAS PRECIOUS
MOISTURE WITH WHICH TO WORK. GFS/ECMWF WANT TO GENERATE SOME -RA
WITH THIS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP ALL POPS
BELOW 15 PERCENT.

USED A MODEL BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...MAX
TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...AND
MIN TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT TUESDAY...

BENIGN...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BROAD UPPER RIDGE DRIFTS
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. INTO THE EASTERN U.S. THIS RIDGE WILL
EFFECTIVELY SHUT OFF ANY INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE...ACTUALLY
SUPPRESSED WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF COAST EVEN...AND LOCK THE COLD
CANADIAN AIR WELL NORTH OF THE BORDER WITH A STRONG ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THAT REGION. THE 850MB 0C ISOTHERM IS PROGGED TO REMAIN
MOSTLY NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH THE END OF OCTOBER.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO RISE INTO THE
+12C TO +14C...SO TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY MAX TEMPS...WITH MIN TEMPS CREEPING TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY AS WELL. SHOULD BE A
FANTASTIC WEEKEND TO VIEW THE BRILLIANT FALL FOLIAGE AROUND THE
REGION...WHICH IS AT ITS PEAK NOW IN MANY PARTS OF THE CWA AND
SURROUNDING AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM EDT TUESDAY...

SHORTWAVE WILL PIVOT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. MVFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WEST WITH THE UPSLOPE FLOW AND COLD
ADVECTION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE EAST.

VERY LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE AT BLF...LWB...AND BCB THIS MORNING.
POCKETS OF FOG ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WHERE HEAVIER RAIN HAS FALLEN.
THE TAF SITE WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR FOG IS LWB WHERE LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING IFR/LIFR MAY BE POSSIBLE.

STRONGEST UPPER WAVE WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK WITH
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHWRS AND LOWERING CIGS TO THE LOW END OF MVFR.
CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF IFR IN SOME SHOWERS AT BLF AND LWB...WITH
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THESE CONDITIONS AT BCB.

EXPECT GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY TO SLOWLY TURNING MORE
NORTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WITH SOME
SHOWERS CONTINUING WESTERN SLOPES.

HIGH CONFIDENCES IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
PERIOD.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOW DOWN AND DEEPEN THROUGH MID WEEK
AND ONLY SLOWLY BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY THURSDAY. THE
MAIN IMPACT WITH BE A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GUSTY WIND AND
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THAT WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY THE PREFERRED
UPSLOPE REGION OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA INTO WED NIGHT OR EVEN
THURS MORNING. MVFR CLOUDS WILL THUS BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA TO LYH TO DAN
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW- LEVEL UPSLOPE
CLOUDS IN WEST WILL SLOWLY BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...FOR DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...PM/RAB
AVIATION...KK



000
FXUS61 KRNK 210858
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
458 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD IN OUR DIRECTION...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT TUESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING AND TRAVEL INTO THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
REGIONAL WSR-88D IMAGES THIS MORNING SHOWED SCATTERED CONVECTION
ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA SOUTHWARD TO KENTUCKY MOVING EAST THIS MORNING.
INCREASED POPS FOR THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS. ANTICIPATE A RESURGENCE OF UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN THE
WEST...WITH A BIT MORE COVERAGE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MIDDAY. A
REINFORCING PIECE OF ENERGY WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND
TAPER CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE
GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT WITH DOWNSLOPE
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING IN THIS REGION. UPPER LOW WILL PIVOT DOWN INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT AND TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY. PLAYED
POPS CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND WITH BEST CHANCE IN THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID
30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THROUGH THURSDAY...THE FOCUS FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE ON A DEEP
CLOSED UPPER LOW PROGGED TO DIVE DOWN INTO THE DELMARVA
REGION...THEN SLOWLY LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND. THE
LOW WILL KEEP A PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WITH
VARIABLE CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...AND COOL TEMPERATURES. WITH THE REGION
REMAINING ON THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST...DRIER SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...QPF WILL BE MINIMAL...MAINLY A FEW SPRINKLES OR
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH NORTH OF U.S. 460...AND PERHAPS UP TO 1/4
INCH OVER THE THREE DAY PERIOD EASTERN WV MOUNTAIN UPSLOPE AREAS.
IN ADDITION...WITH A DEEP SFC LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE DELMARVA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LOW...GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP WED-
THU. SO...WHILE THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE
SCANT...CONDITIONS WED-THU WILL BE FAR FROM IDEAL WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUDS...CHILLY WINDS...AND SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. THE
WORST CONDITIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH BETTER
CONDITIONS...LESS CLOUDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES...ACROSS THE NC
PIEDMONT COUNTIES.

WITH RESPECT TO WINTER WEATHER CONCERNS...THERE REALLY ARE NONE.
THERE IS A POCKET OF NEAR 0C AIR WHICH DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE UPPER LOW LATE WED INTO THU...BUT MOVES ACROSS RAIN FREE
AREAS OF EASTERN KY/EASTERN TN/FAR SW VA...AND NW NC. AT THIS
POINT...NO PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED IN THESE AREAS.
OTHERWISE...LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ACROSS THE COLDER WESTERN
MOUNTAIN AREAS REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 1330-1340 RANGE...MUCH TOO
WARM FOR ANY CONCERN WITH WINTER PRECIPITATION. IN ADDITION...SFC
TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY WINTER
PCPN IN THE GRIDS AND REMOVED THE FEW PIXELS OF SNOW PREVIOUSLY
INDICATED ACROSS NW GREENBRIER. THE BIGGER CONCERN WITH THESE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL IN AREAS THAT
CLEAR...BUT TURBULENT MIXING/WIND MAY PREVENT THAT ONCE AGAIN.
NEAR NORMAL MIN TEMPS AND BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MID-WEEK IN NORTHERN AREAS...WITH READINGS CLOSER TO
NORMAL IN SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.

FOR FRIDAY...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN AT ODDS AS TO WHAT TO DO WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH THAT FOLLOWS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE CLOSED
LOW. WHILE A COUPLE OF RUNS BACK...THIS WAS SLATED TO STAY IN THE
SOUTHERN STATES...A HIGH AMPLITUDE...SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE UPPER RIDGE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL KEEP THIS FEATURE FURTHER NORTH. IN
ESSENCE...IT IS SOMEWHAT OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER...BUT HAS PRECIOUS
MOISTURE WITH WHICH TO WORK. GFS/ECMWF WANT TO GENERATE SOME -RA
WITH THIS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP ALL POPS
BELOW 15 PERCENT.

USED A MODEL BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...MAX
TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...AND
MIN TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT TUESDAY...

BENIGN...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BROAD UPPER RIDGE DRIFTS
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. INTO THE EASTERN U.S. THIS RIDGE WILL
EFFECTIVELY SHUT OFF ANY INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE...ACTUALLY
SUPPRESSED WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF COAST EVEN...AND LOCK THE COLD
CANADIAN AIR WELL NORTH OF THE BORDER WITH A STRONG ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THAT REGION. THE 850MB 0C ISOTHERM IS PROGGED TO REMAIN
MOSTLY NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH THE END OF OCTOBER.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO RISE INTO THE
+12C TO +14C...SO TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY MAX TEMPS...WITH MIN TEMPS CREEPING TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY AS WELL. SHOULD BE A
FANTASTIC WEEKEND TO VIEW THE BRILLIANT FALL FOLIAGE AROUND THE
REGION...WHICH IS AT ITS PEAK NOW IN MANY PARTS OF THE CWA AND
SURROUNDING AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM EDT TUESDAY...

SHORTWAVE WILL PIVOT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. MVFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WEST WITH THE UPSLOPE FLOW AND COLD
ADVECTION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE EAST.

VERY LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE AT BLF...LWB...AND BCB THIS MORNING.
POCKETS OF FOG ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WHERE HEAVIER RAIN HAS FALLEN.
THE TAF SITE WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR FOG IS LWB WHERE LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING IFR/LIFR MAY BE POSSIBLE.

STRONGEST UPPER WAVE WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK WITH
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHWRS AND LOWERING CIGS TO THE LOW END OF MVFR.
CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF IFR IN SOME SHOWERS AT BLF AND LWB...WITH
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THESE CONDITIONS AT BCB.

EXPECT GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY TO SLOWLY TURNING MORE
NORTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WITH SOME
SHOWERS CONTINUING WESTERN SLOPES.

HIGH CONFIDENCES IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
PERIOD.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOW DOWN AND DEEPEN THROUGH MID WEEK
AND ONLY SLOWLY BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY THURSDAY. THE
MAIN IMPACT WITH BE A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GUSTY WIND AND
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THAT WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY THE PREFERRED
UPSLOPE REGION OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA INTO WED NIGHT OR EVEN
THURS MORNING. MVFR CLOUDS WILL THUS BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA TO LYH TO DAN
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW- LEVEL UPSLOPE
CLOUDS IN WEST WILL SLOWLY BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...FOR DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...PM/RAB
AVIATION...KK




000
FXUS61 KLWX 210800
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT OVER OHIO WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

AS OF 07Z...1007MB SFC LOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT STRETCHING OVER NRN OHIO. AN UPR LEVEL TROUGH IS APPARENT IN
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AS OVER THE WRN PA/CNTRL WV.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CLOSE INTO A OVER LAKE ERIE THIS AFTERNOON AND
SHIFT SOUTH EAST ACROSS THE CNTRL MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS PUSH EAST BEFORE SUNRISE WITH POPS INCREASING FROM
THE WEST AND SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE DAY. ISO THUNDER IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF THE COLD CORE LOW CENTER. THIS PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WLY FLOW PREVAILS...BUT IS QUITE
WEAK. THEREFORE THE DOWNSLOPING EFFECT IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AND
POPS WERE RAISED TO LIKELIES EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT
(CATEGORICAL WEST). MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO MONDAY (THE AIRMASS IS
ALREADY IN PLACE)...BUT CLOUD/PRECIP COVERAGE WILL DETERMINE THE
PRECISE DEGREE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...

POPS GENERALLY DECREASE SLOWLY TONIGHT WEST TO EAST (EAST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT WITH UPSLOPE RAIN CONTINUING) AS THE UPR LOW CENTER
SHIFTS TO THE DELMARVA. MIN TEMPS MAINLY UPR 40S INLAND UNDER THE
COLD CORE LOW (UPR 30S IN THE ALLEGHENIES AND LOW 50S NEAR SHORE).

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MERELY DRIFTS EAST FROM THE DELMARVA COAST.
POPS PERSIST IN THE ALLEGHENIES FOR UPSLOPE AND EAST OF I-95 FROM
WRAP AROUND PRECIP. GUSTY NWLY FLOW FROM THE NOW CUTOFF LOW. EXPECT
GUSTS 35 TO 40 MPH...PARTICULARLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

BLUSTERY WX LOOKS TO BE IN STORE WED NGT AND THU...ESPECIALLY IN
THE ERN PART OF THE FCST AREA. LOW PRES GOES VERTICALLY STACKED
OFF THE NJ CST W/ HIGH PRES BUILDING OVR OH/KY. THIS WL CREATE A
STRONG PRES GRAD AND BRZY/WINDY CONDS. ISOLD RW WL BE PSBL AS
WELL..AGN IN THE ERN PART OF THE AREA. LOW TEMPS IN THE 40S.

SKIES SHOULD BE CLRG DURG THU AS THE LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS TOWARDS
LONG ISLAND BUT SUSPECT IT WL STILL BE BRZY GIVEN THE PRES GRAD.
GRTR SUNSHINE SHOULD ALSO HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE LOWER LVLS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE AND BRING WIND TO THE SFC. HIGH TEMPS IN THE U50S TO LM60S.

AFTR THU WX SHOULD GET BETTER AND BETTER. HIGH PRES REPLACES THE
DEPARTED LOW ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD FRI THRU THE WKND...AND INTO
THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WK. EACH DAY SHOULD BE A LTL WARMER THAN
THE ONE B4...STARTING W/ THE LM60S FRI TO THE LM70S MON. LOWS IN
THE LM40S EVERYWHERE XCPT THE COOLER HIGHLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

VFR PREVAILS INTO THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
LOW. LIKELY RAIN AND ISOLATED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE
TERMINALS. SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST TONIGHT AS THE LOW CROSSES THE
AREA. STRONG NWLY FLOW WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KT BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON.

CLDY WED NGT BUT CIGS XPCTD TO BE VFR. BRZY NW WINDS XPCTD WED NGT
AND THU. VFR/NO PROBS FRI AND SAT.

&&

.MARINE...

FLOW BECOMES WLY THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDER THIS EVENING OVER THE BAY. NWLY
FLOW INCREASES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS AT LEAST 30 KT BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON. GALES POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LINGERS
OFF THE DELMARVA.

SCA WL LKLY BE ISSUED FOR WED NGT AND THU. WE`LL HV TO KEEP OUR
EYES OUT FOR THE PSBLTY OF GUSTS REACHING GALE LVLS.

THE WKND IS LOOKING QUITE GOOD FOR MARINE ACTIVITIES - SUNNY
SKIES...PLSNT TEMPS...LGT WINDS. WATER TEMPS STILL IN LM60S.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

FORECASTS FOR WASHINGTON CHANNEL...BALTIMORE AND ANNAPOLIS SHOW
LIKELIHOOD TO REACH ACTION STAGES BUT FALL SHORT OF MINOR FLD LVLS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...BAJ/WOODY!








000
FXUS61 KLWX 210800
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT OVER OHIO WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

AS OF 07Z...1007MB SFC LOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT STRETCHING OVER NRN OHIO. AN UPR LEVEL TROUGH IS APPARENT IN
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AS OVER THE WRN PA/CNTRL WV.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CLOSE INTO A OVER LAKE ERIE THIS AFTERNOON AND
SHIFT SOUTH EAST ACROSS THE CNTRL MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS PUSH EAST BEFORE SUNRISE WITH POPS INCREASING FROM
THE WEST AND SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE DAY. ISO THUNDER IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF THE COLD CORE LOW CENTER. THIS PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WLY FLOW PREVAILS...BUT IS QUITE
WEAK. THEREFORE THE DOWNSLOPING EFFECT IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AND
POPS WERE RAISED TO LIKELIES EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT
(CATEGORICAL WEST). MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO MONDAY (THE AIRMASS IS
ALREADY IN PLACE)...BUT CLOUD/PRECIP COVERAGE WILL DETERMINE THE
PRECISE DEGREE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...

POPS GENERALLY DECREASE SLOWLY TONIGHT WEST TO EAST (EAST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT WITH UPSLOPE RAIN CONTINUING) AS THE UPR LOW CENTER
SHIFTS TO THE DELMARVA. MIN TEMPS MAINLY UPR 40S INLAND UNDER THE
COLD CORE LOW (UPR 30S IN THE ALLEGHENIES AND LOW 50S NEAR SHORE).

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MERELY DRIFTS EAST FROM THE DELMARVA COAST.
POPS PERSIST IN THE ALLEGHENIES FOR UPSLOPE AND EAST OF I-95 FROM
WRAP AROUND PRECIP. GUSTY NWLY FLOW FROM THE NOW CUTOFF LOW. EXPECT
GUSTS 35 TO 40 MPH...PARTICULARLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

BLUSTERY WX LOOKS TO BE IN STORE WED NGT AND THU...ESPECIALLY IN
THE ERN PART OF THE FCST AREA. LOW PRES GOES VERTICALLY STACKED
OFF THE NJ CST W/ HIGH PRES BUILDING OVR OH/KY. THIS WL CREATE A
STRONG PRES GRAD AND BRZY/WINDY CONDS. ISOLD RW WL BE PSBL AS
WELL..AGN IN THE ERN PART OF THE AREA. LOW TEMPS IN THE 40S.

SKIES SHOULD BE CLRG DURG THU AS THE LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS TOWARDS
LONG ISLAND BUT SUSPECT IT WL STILL BE BRZY GIVEN THE PRES GRAD.
GRTR SUNSHINE SHOULD ALSO HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE LOWER LVLS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE AND BRING WIND TO THE SFC. HIGH TEMPS IN THE U50S TO LM60S.

AFTR THU WX SHOULD GET BETTER AND BETTER. HIGH PRES REPLACES THE
DEPARTED LOW ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD FRI THRU THE WKND...AND INTO
THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WK. EACH DAY SHOULD BE A LTL WARMER THAN
THE ONE B4...STARTING W/ THE LM60S FRI TO THE LM70S MON. LOWS IN
THE LM40S EVERYWHERE XCPT THE COOLER HIGHLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

VFR PREVAILS INTO THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
LOW. LIKELY RAIN AND ISOLATED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE
TERMINALS. SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST TONIGHT AS THE LOW CROSSES THE
AREA. STRONG NWLY FLOW WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KT BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON.

CLDY WED NGT BUT CIGS XPCTD TO BE VFR. BRZY NW WINDS XPCTD WED NGT
AND THU. VFR/NO PROBS FRI AND SAT.

&&

.MARINE...

FLOW BECOMES WLY THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDER THIS EVENING OVER THE BAY. NWLY
FLOW INCREASES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS AT LEAST 30 KT BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON. GALES POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LINGERS
OFF THE DELMARVA.

SCA WL LKLY BE ISSUED FOR WED NGT AND THU. WE`LL HV TO KEEP OUR
EYES OUT FOR THE PSBLTY OF GUSTS REACHING GALE LVLS.

THE WKND IS LOOKING QUITE GOOD FOR MARINE ACTIVITIES - SUNNY
SKIES...PLSNT TEMPS...LGT WINDS. WATER TEMPS STILL IN LM60S.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

FORECASTS FOR WASHINGTON CHANNEL...BALTIMORE AND ANNAPOLIS SHOW
LIKELIHOOD TO REACH ACTION STAGES BUT FALL SHORT OF MINOR FLD LVLS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...BAJ/WOODY!







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210759
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
359 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...LOCATING OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST FOR MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ONTARIO WITH A
TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW FROM THE LOW DOWN THROUGH THE
OH VALLEY. WEAK/ELONGATED SHORTWAVE ALOFT IS PUSHING EAST ACRS THE
CWA AND HAS ALLOWED FOR ENOUGH LIFT TO DEVELOP SOME VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES OVER THE REGION (GENLY TOO DRY IN LOW LEVELS FOR
ANYTHING MEASURABLE THUS FAR). MOISTURE WILL TEND TO DIMINISH FROM W
TO E THROUGH 12Z AS DRY SLOT PUSHES BACK IN FROM THE SW BUT WILL
MAINTAIN 20% POPS E OF I-95 THROUGH 12Z.

AFTER 12Z...WILL TEND TO SALVAGE A PRETTY NICE DAY ACRS MOST OF THE
LOCAL AREA AS SKIES BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND WINDS SHIFT TO
THE WEST. WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING OFF MUCH MILDER THAN YESTERDAY
MORNING...SUN AND MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR FAIRLY RAPID WARMING
THROUGH THE 60S AND INTO THE LOWER 70S BY EARLY AFTN. WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SEEN ON WV SATELLITE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES PROGGED TO DIVE SE AROUND THE BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER
LOW...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS FROM NW TO SE THIS AFTN. HIGH RES
MODELS SHOWING A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY
ACRS NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA AFTER 18Z...GRADUALLY ADVECTING THIS SE
TO THE COAST PRIOR TO 00Z THIS EVENING. DUE TO DRY LOW LEVELS (DEW
PTS IN 40S)...EXPECT THAT RADAR COVERAGE THIS AFTN WILL LOOK MORE
IMPRESSIVE THAN REALITY AND THUS WILL KEEP POPS CAPPED IN CHANCE
RANGE...AROUND 40% ACRS THE NORTH AFTER 20Z...TAPERED TO 20% OR
LOWER ACRS THE SOUTH. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...< .10". HIGHS
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACRS THE FAR SE (WHERE
CLOUDS ARE SLOWER TO PUSH IN THIS AFTN)...TO THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70
F OVER THE NW DUE TO EARLIER ONSET OF CLOUDS AN POTENTIAL SHOWERS.
ALSO...DUE TO THE LOW DEW PTS...IF MEASURABLE RAINFALL DOES
OCCUR...TEMPS LATE THIS AFTN WOULD POTENTIALLY DROP INTO THE LOWER
60S OR COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLOW CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A BLOCKING
PATTERN DEVELOPS OVER ERN CANADA. THE UPPER LOW WILL PROGRESS
SLOWLY EWD OVERNIGHT INTO WED...LOCATING OFF THE DELMARVA COAST
LATE WED. WITH THE UPR LOW PIVOTING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT...WILL
SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DEVELOP ESPECIALLY NORTH/NE WHERE
BEST UPWARD MOTION IS ANTICIPATED. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY
IN THESE AREAS...TAPERED TO LOWER CHANCES FARTHER S/W WHERE DEEP
MOISTURE IS GENLY NOT PRESENT. LOWS TUE NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND OFFSHORE WED.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAIRLY DRY ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS AS THE
TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION SWING OFFSHORE...HOWEVER A FAIRLY SHARP
MOSITURE GRADIENT PROGGED ALONG THE COAST...THE ERN SHORE IN
PARTICULAR. WILL THEREFORE KEEP CHC POPS LIMITED TO AREAS MAINLY ALONG
AND NE OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR WED...WITH EMPHASIS OF 60-70% POPS ON
THE EASTERN SHORE. COULD END UP BEING DRY OVER FAR SW ZONES.
FAVOR COOLER END OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...MID 60S SW TO AROUND
60/LOWER 60S NE.

THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE WED NIGHT INTO THU...LOCATING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 00Z FRIDAY. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWER CHANCES
BY THEN WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN SHORE (20%). DECREASING
CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE
LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. COOL AGAIN THU ALTHOUGH WITH A BIT MORE SUN
SHOULD SEE HIGHS INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S WELL INLAND WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE LOWER 60S FARTHER NE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ERN US EARLY
NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE MID 60S
TO AROUND 70 FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S SUNDAY...AND POTENTIALLY 70-75 BY MONDAY. LOWS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO THIS EVENG OVR THE TAF
SITES...WITH PERIODS OF MID LVL CLOUDINESS...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES ACRS THE AREA. LATER TNGT THRU THU...LO PRES WILL INTENSIFY
OFF THE NEW JERSEY AND NEW ENGLAND CSTS. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR
SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS...ESPLY OVR NRN AND ERN PORTIONS LATE TNGT
INTO WED NGT. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY THU AT SBY. THE LO
PRES SYSTEM WILL MOVE FARTHER AWAY TO THE NE AND HI PRES BLDS IN
FM THE NNW THU NGT INTO SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
10 PM UPDATE...WINDS AND SEAS HAVE INCREASED WELL OFFSHORE (OFF
THE MD COAST) ACCORDING TO BUOY 09. SEAS ARE JUST ABOUT 5 FT (4.9
FT LAST TWO HOURS). WINDS AND SEAS ARE MUCH LESS TOWARD THE COAST.
INCLUDED A STRIP OF 5 FT SEAS (THROUGH 06Z) IN THE ZONES N OF
PARRAMORE ISLAND BUT HOLDING OFF ON SCA FOR NOW.

HI RES MODELS ARE OVERDOING THE WINDS OVER THE BAY. AS AIR
TEMPERATURES COOL...MIXING WILL INCREASE AND WINDS MAY INCREASE
BUT EXPECT THEM TO STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT...ALLOWING THE WIND
TO REMAIN S/SW. EXPECT SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH WIND
SPEEDS AVERAGING UP TO 15-20 KT ACRS NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...AND
GENERALLY 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE COAST LATE TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY EVENTUAL SCA
CONDITIONS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SFC LOW PRESSURE
THEN DEEPENS OFF THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STALL
OFFSHORE THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. WITH FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FROM THE
NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...AJZ/TMG






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210744
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
344 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...LOCATING OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST FOR MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ONTARIO WITH A
TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW FROM THE LOW DOWN THROUGH THE
OH VALLEY. WEAK/ELONGATED SHORTWAVE ALOFT IS PUSHING EAST ACRS THE
CWA AND HAS ALLOWED FOR ENOUGH LIFT TO DEVELOP SOME VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES OVER THE REGION (GENLY TOO DRY IN LOW LEVELS FOR
ANYTHING MEASURABLE THUS FAR). MOISTURE WILL TEND TO DIMINISH FROM W
TO E THROUGH 12Z AS DRY SLOT PUSHES BACK IN FROM THE SW BUT WILL
MAINTAIN 20% POPS E OF I-95 THROUGH 12Z.

AFTER 12Z...WILL TEND TO SALVAGE A PRETTY NICE DAY ACRS MOST OF THE
LOCAL AREA AS SKIES BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND WINDS SHIFT TO
THE WEST. WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING OFF MUCH MILDER THAN YESTERDAY
MORNING...SUN AND MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR FAIRLY RAPID WARMING
THROUGH THE 60S AND INTO THE LOWER 70S BY EARLY AFTN. WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SEEN ON WV SATELLITE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES PROGGED TO DIVE SE AROUND THE BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER
LOW...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS FROM NW TO SE THIS AFTN. HIGH RES
MODELS SHOWING A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY
ACRS NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA AFTER 18Z...GRADUALLY ADVECTING THIS SE
TO THE COAST PRIOR TO 00Z THIS EVENING. DUE TO DRY LOW LEVELS (DEW
PTS IN 40S)...EXPECT THAT RADAR COVERAGE THIS AFTN WILL LOOK MORE
IMPRESSIVE THAN REALITY AND THUS WILL KEEP POPS CAPPED IN CHANCE
RANGE...AROUND 40% ACRS THE NORTH AFTER 20Z...TAPERED TO 20% OR
LOWER ACRS THE SOUTH. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...< .10". HIGHS
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACRS THE FAR SE (WHERE
CLOUDS ARE SLOWER TO PUSH IN THIS AFTN)...TO THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70
F OVER THE NW DUE TO EARLIER ONSET OF CLOUDS AN POTENTIAL SHOWERS.
ALSO...DUE TO THE LOW DEW PTS...IF MEASURABLE RAINFALL DOES
OCCUR...TEMPS LATE THIS AFTN WOULD POTENTIALLY DROP INTO THE LOWER
60S OR COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLOW AMPLIFIES DURING THE SHORT TERM AS A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS
OVER ERN CANADA. ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVES SOUTH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/OH VALLEY TUES THANKS TO A ~100 KT JET STREAK DIVING SWD
FROM CANADA. AS A RESULT...UPPER LOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NE STATES LATE TUESDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL
PROGRESS SLOWLY EWD TUES NIGHT INTO WED...LOCATING OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST LATE WED. WITH THE UPR LOW PIVOTING ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TUE/TUE NIGHT...WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
DEVELOP ESPECIALLY NORTH/NE WHERE BEST UPWARD MOTION IS
ANTICIPATED. HAVE CHANCE (POPS 25-40%) ALONG AND NE OF A LINE FROM
LKU-OFP-MFV ON TUE...THEN BEST CHANCE (30-50%) MAINLY ALONG THE
VA COAST AND ONTO THE EASTERN SHORE TUE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...WILL
CARRY NO HIGHER THEN 20% POPS. HIGHS TUE IN THE UPPER 60S NW TO
MID 70S SE. LOWS TUE NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. MOSTLY
CLOUDY NORTH TO PARTLY CLOUDY SOUTH DURING THIE TIME.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND OFFSHORE WED.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAIRLY DRY ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS AS THE
TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION SWING OFFSHORE. WILL THEREFORE KEEP CHC POPS
LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG AND NE OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR WED...WITH
EMPHASIS ON THE NORTHERN NECK AND EASTERN SHORE (30-50% POPS).
COULD END UP BEING DRY OVER FAR SW ZONES. COOLER WED WITH HIGHS
ONLY 60-65.

THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE WED NIGHT INTO THU...LOCATING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 00Z FRIDAY. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWER CHANCES
BY THEN WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN SHORE (20%). DECREASING
CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE
LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. COOL AGAIN THU WITH HIGHS 60-65.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ERN US EARLY
NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE MID 60S
TO AROUND 70 FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S SUNDAY...AND POTENTIALLY 70-75 BY MONDAY. LOWS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO THIS EVENG OVR THE TAF
SITES...WITH PERIODS OF MID LVL CLOUDINESS...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES ACRS THE AREA. LATER TNGT THRU THU...LO PRES WILL INTENSIFY
OFF THE NEW JERSEY AND NEW ENGLAND CSTS. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR
SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS...ESPLY OVR NRN AND ERN PORTIONS LATE TNGT
INTO WED NGT. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY THU AT SBY. THE LO
PRES SYSTEM WILL MOVE FARTHER AWAY TO THE NE AND HI PRES BLDS IN
FM THE NNW THU NGT INTO SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
10 PM UPDATE...WINDS AND SEAS HAVE INCREASED WELL OFFSHORE (OFF
THE MD COAST) ACCORDING TO BUOY 09. SEAS ARE JUST ABOUT 5 FT (4.9
FT LAST TWO HOURS). WINDS AND SEAS ARE MUCH LESS TOWARD THE COAST.
INCLUDED A STRIP OF 5 FT SEAS (THROUGH 06Z) IN THE ZONES N OF
PARRAMORE ISLAND BUT HOLDING OFF ON SCA FOR NOW.

HI RES MODELS ARE OVERDOING THE WINDS OVER THE BAY. AS AIR
TEMPERATURES COOL...MIXING WILL INCREASE AND WINDS MAY INCREASE
BUT EXPECT THEM TO STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT...ALLOWING THE WIND
TO REMAIN S/SW. EXPECT SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH WIND
SPEEDS AVERAGING UP TO 15-20 KT ACRS NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...AND
GENERALLY 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE COAST LATE TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY EVENTUAL SCA
CONDITIONS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SFC LOW PRESSURE
THEN DEEPENS OFF THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STALL
OFFSHORE THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. WITH FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FROM THE
NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...AJZ/TMG






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210744
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
344 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...LOCATING OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST FOR MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ONTARIO WITH A
TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW FROM THE LOW DOWN THROUGH THE
OH VALLEY. WEAK/ELONGATED SHORTWAVE ALOFT IS PUSHING EAST ACRS THE
CWA AND HAS ALLOWED FOR ENOUGH LIFT TO DEVELOP SOME VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES OVER THE REGION (GENLY TOO DRY IN LOW LEVELS FOR
ANYTHING MEASURABLE THUS FAR). MOISTURE WILL TEND TO DIMINISH FROM W
TO E THROUGH 12Z AS DRY SLOT PUSHES BACK IN FROM THE SW BUT WILL
MAINTAIN 20% POPS E OF I-95 THROUGH 12Z.

AFTER 12Z...WILL TEND TO SALVAGE A PRETTY NICE DAY ACRS MOST OF THE
LOCAL AREA AS SKIES BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND WINDS SHIFT TO
THE WEST. WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING OFF MUCH MILDER THAN YESTERDAY
MORNING...SUN AND MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR FAIRLY RAPID WARMING
THROUGH THE 60S AND INTO THE LOWER 70S BY EARLY AFTN. WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SEEN ON WV SATELLITE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES PROGGED TO DIVE SE AROUND THE BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER
LOW...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS FROM NW TO SE THIS AFTN. HIGH RES
MODELS SHOWING A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY
ACRS NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA AFTER 18Z...GRADUALLY ADVECTING THIS SE
TO THE COAST PRIOR TO 00Z THIS EVENING. DUE TO DRY LOW LEVELS (DEW
PTS IN 40S)...EXPECT THAT RADAR COVERAGE THIS AFTN WILL LOOK MORE
IMPRESSIVE THAN REALITY AND THUS WILL KEEP POPS CAPPED IN CHANCE
RANGE...AROUND 40% ACRS THE NORTH AFTER 20Z...TAPERED TO 20% OR
LOWER ACRS THE SOUTH. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...< .10". HIGHS
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACRS THE FAR SE (WHERE
CLOUDS ARE SLOWER TO PUSH IN THIS AFTN)...TO THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70
F OVER THE NW DUE TO EARLIER ONSET OF CLOUDS AN POTENTIAL SHOWERS.
ALSO...DUE TO THE LOW DEW PTS...IF MEASURABLE RAINFALL DOES
OCCUR...TEMPS LATE THIS AFTN WOULD POTENTIALLY DROP INTO THE LOWER
60S OR COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLOW AMPLIFIES DURING THE SHORT TERM AS A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS
OVER ERN CANADA. ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVES SOUTH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/OH VALLEY TUES THANKS TO A ~100 KT JET STREAK DIVING SWD
FROM CANADA. AS A RESULT...UPPER LOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NE STATES LATE TUESDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL
PROGRESS SLOWLY EWD TUES NIGHT INTO WED...LOCATING OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST LATE WED. WITH THE UPR LOW PIVOTING ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TUE/TUE NIGHT...WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
DEVELOP ESPECIALLY NORTH/NE WHERE BEST UPWARD MOTION IS
ANTICIPATED. HAVE CHANCE (POPS 25-40%) ALONG AND NE OF A LINE FROM
LKU-OFP-MFV ON TUE...THEN BEST CHANCE (30-50%) MAINLY ALONG THE
VA COAST AND ONTO THE EASTERN SHORE TUE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...WILL
CARRY NO HIGHER THEN 20% POPS. HIGHS TUE IN THE UPPER 60S NW TO
MID 70S SE. LOWS TUE NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. MOSTLY
CLOUDY NORTH TO PARTLY CLOUDY SOUTH DURING THIE TIME.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND OFFSHORE WED.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAIRLY DRY ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS AS THE
TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION SWING OFFSHORE. WILL THEREFORE KEEP CHC POPS
LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG AND NE OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR WED...WITH
EMPHASIS ON THE NORTHERN NECK AND EASTERN SHORE (30-50% POPS).
COULD END UP BEING DRY OVER FAR SW ZONES. COOLER WED WITH HIGHS
ONLY 60-65.

THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE WED NIGHT INTO THU...LOCATING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 00Z FRIDAY. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWER CHANCES
BY THEN WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN SHORE (20%). DECREASING
CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE
LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. COOL AGAIN THU WITH HIGHS 60-65.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ERN US EARLY
NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE MID 60S
TO AROUND 70 FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S SUNDAY...AND POTENTIALLY 70-75 BY MONDAY. LOWS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO THIS EVENG OVR THE TAF
SITES...WITH PERIODS OF MID LVL CLOUDINESS...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES ACRS THE AREA. LATER TNGT THRU THU...LO PRES WILL INTENSIFY
OFF THE NEW JERSEY AND NEW ENGLAND CSTS. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR
SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS...ESPLY OVR NRN AND ERN PORTIONS LATE TNGT
INTO WED NGT. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY THU AT SBY. THE LO
PRES SYSTEM WILL MOVE FARTHER AWAY TO THE NE AND HI PRES BLDS IN
FM THE NNW THU NGT INTO SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
10 PM UPDATE...WINDS AND SEAS HAVE INCREASED WELL OFFSHORE (OFF
THE MD COAST) ACCORDING TO BUOY 09. SEAS ARE JUST ABOUT 5 FT (4.9
FT LAST TWO HOURS). WINDS AND SEAS ARE MUCH LESS TOWARD THE COAST.
INCLUDED A STRIP OF 5 FT SEAS (THROUGH 06Z) IN THE ZONES N OF
PARRAMORE ISLAND BUT HOLDING OFF ON SCA FOR NOW.

HI RES MODELS ARE OVERDOING THE WINDS OVER THE BAY. AS AIR
TEMPERATURES COOL...MIXING WILL INCREASE AND WINDS MAY INCREASE
BUT EXPECT THEM TO STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT...ALLOWING THE WIND
TO REMAIN S/SW. EXPECT SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH WIND
SPEEDS AVERAGING UP TO 15-20 KT ACRS NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...AND
GENERALLY 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE COAST LATE TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY EVENTUAL SCA
CONDITIONS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SFC LOW PRESSURE
THEN DEEPENS OFF THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STALL
OFFSHORE THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. WITH FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FROM THE
NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...AJZ/TMG






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210744
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
344 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...LOCATING OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST FOR MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ONTARIO WITH A
TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW FROM THE LOW DOWN THROUGH THE
OH VALLEY. WEAK/ELONGATED SHORTWAVE ALOFT IS PUSHING EAST ACRS THE
CWA AND HAS ALLOWED FOR ENOUGH LIFT TO DEVELOP SOME VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES OVER THE REGION (GENLY TOO DRY IN LOW LEVELS FOR
ANYTHING MEASURABLE THUS FAR). MOISTURE WILL TEND TO DIMINISH FROM W
TO E THROUGH 12Z AS DRY SLOT PUSHES BACK IN FROM THE SW BUT WILL
MAINTAIN 20% POPS E OF I-95 THROUGH 12Z.

AFTER 12Z...WILL TEND TO SALVAGE A PRETTY NICE DAY ACRS MOST OF THE
LOCAL AREA AS SKIES BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND WINDS SHIFT TO
THE WEST. WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING OFF MUCH MILDER THAN YESTERDAY
MORNING...SUN AND MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR FAIRLY RAPID WARMING
THROUGH THE 60S AND INTO THE LOWER 70S BY EARLY AFTN. WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SEEN ON WV SATELLITE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES PROGGED TO DIVE SE AROUND THE BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER
LOW...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS FROM NW TO SE THIS AFTN. HIGH RES
MODELS SHOWING A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY
ACRS NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA AFTER 18Z...GRADUALLY ADVECTING THIS SE
TO THE COAST PRIOR TO 00Z THIS EVENING. DUE TO DRY LOW LEVELS (DEW
PTS IN 40S)...EXPECT THAT RADAR COVERAGE THIS AFTN WILL LOOK MORE
IMPRESSIVE THAN REALITY AND THUS WILL KEEP POPS CAPPED IN CHANCE
RANGE...AROUND 40% ACRS THE NORTH AFTER 20Z...TAPERED TO 20% OR
LOWER ACRS THE SOUTH. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...< .10". HIGHS
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACRS THE FAR SE (WHERE
CLOUDS ARE SLOWER TO PUSH IN THIS AFTN)...TO THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70
F OVER THE NW DUE TO EARLIER ONSET OF CLOUDS AN POTENTIAL SHOWERS.
ALSO...DUE TO THE LOW DEW PTS...IF MEASURABLE RAINFALL DOES
OCCUR...TEMPS LATE THIS AFTN WOULD POTENTIALLY DROP INTO THE LOWER
60S OR COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLOW AMPLIFIES DURING THE SHORT TERM AS A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS
OVER ERN CANADA. ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVES SOUTH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/OH VALLEY TUES THANKS TO A ~100 KT JET STREAK DIVING SWD
FROM CANADA. AS A RESULT...UPPER LOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NE STATES LATE TUESDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL
PROGRESS SLOWLY EWD TUES NIGHT INTO WED...LOCATING OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST LATE WED. WITH THE UPR LOW PIVOTING ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TUE/TUE NIGHT...WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
DEVELOP ESPECIALLY NORTH/NE WHERE BEST UPWARD MOTION IS
ANTICIPATED. HAVE CHANCE (POPS 25-40%) ALONG AND NE OF A LINE FROM
LKU-OFP-MFV ON TUE...THEN BEST CHANCE (30-50%) MAINLY ALONG THE
VA COAST AND ONTO THE EASTERN SHORE TUE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...WILL
CARRY NO HIGHER THEN 20% POPS. HIGHS TUE IN THE UPPER 60S NW TO
MID 70S SE. LOWS TUE NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. MOSTLY
CLOUDY NORTH TO PARTLY CLOUDY SOUTH DURING THIE TIME.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND OFFSHORE WED.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAIRLY DRY ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS AS THE
TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION SWING OFFSHORE. WILL THEREFORE KEEP CHC POPS
LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG AND NE OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR WED...WITH
EMPHASIS ON THE NORTHERN NECK AND EASTERN SHORE (30-50% POPS).
COULD END UP BEING DRY OVER FAR SW ZONES. COOLER WED WITH HIGHS
ONLY 60-65.

THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE WED NIGHT INTO THU...LOCATING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 00Z FRIDAY. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWER CHANCES
BY THEN WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN SHORE (20%). DECREASING
CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE
LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. COOL AGAIN THU WITH HIGHS 60-65.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ERN US EARLY
NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE MID 60S
TO AROUND 70 FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S SUNDAY...AND POTENTIALLY 70-75 BY MONDAY. LOWS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO THIS EVENG OVR THE TAF
SITES...WITH PERIODS OF MID LVL CLOUDINESS...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES ACRS THE AREA. LATER TNGT THRU THU...LO PRES WILL INTENSIFY
OFF THE NEW JERSEY AND NEW ENGLAND CSTS. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR
SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS...ESPLY OVR NRN AND ERN PORTIONS LATE TNGT
INTO WED NGT. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY THU AT SBY. THE LO
PRES SYSTEM WILL MOVE FARTHER AWAY TO THE NE AND HI PRES BLDS IN
FM THE NNW THU NGT INTO SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
10 PM UPDATE...WINDS AND SEAS HAVE INCREASED WELL OFFSHORE (OFF
THE MD COAST) ACCORDING TO BUOY 09. SEAS ARE JUST ABOUT 5 FT (4.9
FT LAST TWO HOURS). WINDS AND SEAS ARE MUCH LESS TOWARD THE COAST.
INCLUDED A STRIP OF 5 FT SEAS (THROUGH 06Z) IN THE ZONES N OF
PARRAMORE ISLAND BUT HOLDING OFF ON SCA FOR NOW.

HI RES MODELS ARE OVERDOING THE WINDS OVER THE BAY. AS AIR
TEMPERATURES COOL...MIXING WILL INCREASE AND WINDS MAY INCREASE
BUT EXPECT THEM TO STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT...ALLOWING THE WIND
TO REMAIN S/SW. EXPECT SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH WIND
SPEEDS AVERAGING UP TO 15-20 KT ACRS NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...AND
GENERALLY 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE COAST LATE TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY EVENTUAL SCA
CONDITIONS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SFC LOW PRESSURE
THEN DEEPENS OFF THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STALL
OFFSHORE THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. WITH FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FROM THE
NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...AJZ/TMG






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210744
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
344 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...LOCATING OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST FOR MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ONTARIO WITH A
TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW FROM THE LOW DOWN THROUGH THE
OH VALLEY. WEAK/ELONGATED SHORTWAVE ALOFT IS PUSHING EAST ACRS THE
CWA AND HAS ALLOWED FOR ENOUGH LIFT TO DEVELOP SOME VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES OVER THE REGION (GENLY TOO DRY IN LOW LEVELS FOR
ANYTHING MEASURABLE THUS FAR). MOISTURE WILL TEND TO DIMINISH FROM W
TO E THROUGH 12Z AS DRY SLOT PUSHES BACK IN FROM THE SW BUT WILL
MAINTAIN 20% POPS E OF I-95 THROUGH 12Z.

AFTER 12Z...WILL TEND TO SALVAGE A PRETTY NICE DAY ACRS MOST OF THE
LOCAL AREA AS SKIES BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND WINDS SHIFT TO
THE WEST. WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING OFF MUCH MILDER THAN YESTERDAY
MORNING...SUN AND MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR FAIRLY RAPID WARMING
THROUGH THE 60S AND INTO THE LOWER 70S BY EARLY AFTN. WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SEEN ON WV SATELLITE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES PROGGED TO DIVE SE AROUND THE BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER
LOW...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS FROM NW TO SE THIS AFTN. HIGH RES
MODELS SHOWING A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY
ACRS NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA AFTER 18Z...GRADUALLY ADVECTING THIS SE
TO THE COAST PRIOR TO 00Z THIS EVENING. DUE TO DRY LOW LEVELS (DEW
PTS IN 40S)...EXPECT THAT RADAR COVERAGE THIS AFTN WILL LOOK MORE
IMPRESSIVE THAN REALITY AND THUS WILL KEEP POPS CAPPED IN CHANCE
RANGE...AROUND 40% ACRS THE NORTH AFTER 20Z...TAPERED TO 20% OR
LOWER ACRS THE SOUTH. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...< .10". HIGHS
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACRS THE FAR SE (WHERE
CLOUDS ARE SLOWER TO PUSH IN THIS AFTN)...TO THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70
F OVER THE NW DUE TO EARLIER ONSET OF CLOUDS AN POTENTIAL SHOWERS.
ALSO...DUE TO THE LOW DEW PTS...IF MEASURABLE RAINFALL DOES
OCCUR...TEMPS LATE THIS AFTN WOULD POTENTIALLY DROP INTO THE LOWER
60S OR COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLOW AMPLIFIES DURING THE SHORT TERM AS A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS
OVER ERN CANADA. ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVES SOUTH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/OH VALLEY TUES THANKS TO A ~100 KT JET STREAK DIVING SWD
FROM CANADA. AS A RESULT...UPPER LOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NE STATES LATE TUESDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL
PROGRESS SLOWLY EWD TUES NIGHT INTO WED...LOCATING OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST LATE WED. WITH THE UPR LOW PIVOTING ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TUE/TUE NIGHT...WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
DEVELOP ESPECIALLY NORTH/NE WHERE BEST UPWARD MOTION IS
ANTICIPATED. HAVE CHANCE (POPS 25-40%) ALONG AND NE OF A LINE FROM
LKU-OFP-MFV ON TUE...THEN BEST CHANCE (30-50%) MAINLY ALONG THE
VA COAST AND ONTO THE EASTERN SHORE TUE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...WILL
CARRY NO HIGHER THEN 20% POPS. HIGHS TUE IN THE UPPER 60S NW TO
MID 70S SE. LOWS TUE NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. MOSTLY
CLOUDY NORTH TO PARTLY CLOUDY SOUTH DURING THIE TIME.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND OFFSHORE WED.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAIRLY DRY ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS AS THE
TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION SWING OFFSHORE. WILL THEREFORE KEEP CHC POPS
LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG AND NE OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR WED...WITH
EMPHASIS ON THE NORTHERN NECK AND EASTERN SHORE (30-50% POPS).
COULD END UP BEING DRY OVER FAR SW ZONES. COOLER WED WITH HIGHS
ONLY 60-65.

THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE WED NIGHT INTO THU...LOCATING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 00Z FRIDAY. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWER CHANCES
BY THEN WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN SHORE (20%). DECREASING
CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE
LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. COOL AGAIN THU WITH HIGHS 60-65.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ERN US EARLY
NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE MID 60S
TO AROUND 70 FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S SUNDAY...AND POTENTIALLY 70-75 BY MONDAY. LOWS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO THIS EVENG OVR THE TAF
SITES...WITH PERIODS OF MID LVL CLOUDINESS...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES ACRS THE AREA. LATER TNGT THRU THU...LO PRES WILL INTENSIFY
OFF THE NEW JERSEY AND NEW ENGLAND CSTS. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR
SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS...ESPLY OVR NRN AND ERN PORTIONS LATE TNGT
INTO WED NGT. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY THU AT SBY. THE LO
PRES SYSTEM WILL MOVE FARTHER AWAY TO THE NE AND HI PRES BLDS IN
FM THE NNW THU NGT INTO SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
10 PM UPDATE...WINDS AND SEAS HAVE INCREASED WELL OFFSHORE (OFF
THE MD COAST) ACCORDING TO BUOY 09. SEAS ARE JUST ABOUT 5 FT (4.9
FT LAST TWO HOURS). WINDS AND SEAS ARE MUCH LESS TOWARD THE COAST.
INCLUDED A STRIP OF 5 FT SEAS (THROUGH 06Z) IN THE ZONES N OF
PARRAMORE ISLAND BUT HOLDING OFF ON SCA FOR NOW.

HI RES MODELS ARE OVERDOING THE WINDS OVER THE BAY. AS AIR
TEMPERATURES COOL...MIXING WILL INCREASE AND WINDS MAY INCREASE
BUT EXPECT THEM TO STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT...ALLOWING THE WIND
TO REMAIN S/SW. EXPECT SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH WIND
SPEEDS AVERAGING UP TO 15-20 KT ACRS NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...AND
GENERALLY 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE COAST LATE TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY EVENTUAL SCA
CONDITIONS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SFC LOW PRESSURE
THEN DEEPENS OFF THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STALL
OFFSHORE THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. WITH FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FROM THE
NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...AJZ/TMG






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210557
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
157 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOCATING
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FOR MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED WELL OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING
ALLOWING FOR A RELAXING PRES GRAD ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH A SFC COLD FRONT
REACHING THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS AROUND 12Z TUE.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH HAS BEEN
PROVIDING WEAK LIFT SUPPORTING A THIN BAND OF ISOLD SHOWERS ON
RADAR OVER THE WESTERN CWA...HOWEVER DUE TO THE DRY AIR IN PLACE
IN THE LOWER LEVELS MOST OF THE RADAR ARE RESULTING IN VIRGA. BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW OVERALL DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE TONIGHT (PW`S AOB
0.75")...SO IT WILL BE HARD TO GET MUCH OF PCPN TO REACH THE
GROUND. THE HRRR TIES TO DEVELOP A THIN BAND OF SHOWERS EAST OF
I-95 AROUND 06Z...BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE. THAT SAID
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW BRIEF SPRINKLES OVERNIGHT. OVERALL DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU TONIGHT WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUD
COVER. THE CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SW FLOW COULD KEEP SOME AREAS
FROM REACHING FORECAST LOWS KEEPING CONDITIONS MILDER. LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER WEST TO MID 50S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLOW AMPLIFIES DURING THE SHORT TERM AS A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS
OVER ERN CANADA. ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVES SOUTH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/OH VALLEY TUES THANKS TO A ~100 KT JET STREAK DIVING SWD
FROM CANADA. AS A RESULT...UPPER LOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NE STATES LATE TUESDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL
PROGRESS SLOWLY EWD TUES NIGHT INTO WED...LOCATING OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST LATE WED. WITH THE UPR LOW PIVOTING ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TUE/TUE NIGHT...WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
DEVELOP ESPECIALLY NORTH/NE WHERE BEST UPWARD MOTION IS
ANTICIPATED. HAVE CHANCE (POPS 25-40%) ALONG AND NE OF A LINE FROM
LKU-OFP-MFV ON TUE...THEN BEST CHANCE (30-50%) MAINLY ALONG THE
VA COAST AND ONTO THE EASTERN SHORE TUE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...WILL
CARRY NO HIGHER THEN 20% POPS. HIGHS TUE IN THE UPPER 60S NW TO
MID 70S SE. LOWS TUE NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. MOSTLY
CLOUDY NORTH TO PARTLY CLOUDY SOUTH DURING THIE TIME.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND OFFSHORE WED.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAIRLY DRY ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS AS THE
TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION SWING OFFSHORE. WILL THEREFORE KEEP CHC POPS
LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG AND NE OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR WED...WITH
EMPHASIS ON THE NORTHERN NECK AND EASTERN SHORE (30-50% POPS).
COULD END UP BEING DRY OVER FAR SW ZONES. COOLER WED WITH HIGHS
ONLY 60-65.

THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE WED NIGHT INTO THU...LOCATING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 00Z FRIDAY. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWER CHANCES
BY THEN WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN SHORE (20%). DECREASING
CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE
LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. COOL AGAIN THU WITH HIGHS 60-65.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ERN US EARLY
NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE MID 60S
TO AROUND 70 FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S SUNDAY...AND POTENTIALLY 70-75 BY MONDAY. LOWS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO THIS EVENG OVR THE TAF
SITES...WITH PERIODS OF MID LVL CLOUDINESS...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES ACRS THE AREA. LATER TNGT THRU THU...LO PRES WILL INTENSIFY
OFF THE NEW JERSEY AND NEW ENGLAND CSTS. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR
SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS...ESPLY OVR NRN AND ERN PORTIONS LATE TNGT
INTO WED NGT. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY THU AT SBY. THE LO
PRES SYSTEM WILL MOVE FARTHER AWAY TO THE NE AND HI PRES BLDS IN
FM THE NNW THU NGT INTO SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
10 PM UPDATE...WINDS AND SEAS HAVE INCREASED WELL OFFSHORE (OFF
THE MD COAST) ACCORDING TO BUOY 09. SEAS ARE JUST ABOUT 5 FT (4.9
FT LAST TWO HOURS). WINDS AND SEAS ARE MUCH LESS TOWARD THE COAST.
INCLUDED A STRIP OF 5 FT SEAS (THROUGH 06Z) IN THE ZONES N OF
PARRAMORE ISLAND BUT HOLDING OFF ON SCA FOR NOW.

HI RES MODELS ARE OVERDOING THE WINDS OVER THE BAY. AS AIR
TEMPERATURES COOL...MIXING WILL INCREASE AND WINDS MAY INCREASE
BUT EXPECT THEM TO STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT...ALLOWING THE WIND
TO REMAIN S/SW. EXPECT SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH WIND
SPEEDS AVERAGING UP TO 15-20 KT ACRS NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...AND
GENERALLY 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE COAST LATE TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY EVENTUAL SCA
CONDITIONS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SFC LOW PRESSURE
THEN DEEPENS OFF THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STALL
OFFSHORE THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. WITH FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FROM THE
NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/JAO
SHORT TERM...JDM/SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...AJZ/LSA






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210557
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
157 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOCATING
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FOR MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED WELL OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING
ALLOWING FOR A RELAXING PRES GRAD ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH A SFC COLD FRONT
REACHING THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS AROUND 12Z TUE.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH HAS BEEN
PROVIDING WEAK LIFT SUPPORTING A THIN BAND OF ISOLD SHOWERS ON
RADAR OVER THE WESTERN CWA...HOWEVER DUE TO THE DRY AIR IN PLACE
IN THE LOWER LEVELS MOST OF THE RADAR ARE RESULTING IN VIRGA. BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW OVERALL DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE TONIGHT (PW`S AOB
0.75")...SO IT WILL BE HARD TO GET MUCH OF PCPN TO REACH THE
GROUND. THE HRRR TIES TO DEVELOP A THIN BAND OF SHOWERS EAST OF
I-95 AROUND 06Z...BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE. THAT SAID
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW BRIEF SPRINKLES OVERNIGHT. OVERALL DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU TONIGHT WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUD
COVER. THE CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SW FLOW COULD KEEP SOME AREAS
FROM REACHING FORECAST LOWS KEEPING CONDITIONS MILDER. LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER WEST TO MID 50S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLOW AMPLIFIES DURING THE SHORT TERM AS A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS
OVER ERN CANADA. ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVES SOUTH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/OH VALLEY TUES THANKS TO A ~100 KT JET STREAK DIVING SWD
FROM CANADA. AS A RESULT...UPPER LOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NE STATES LATE TUESDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL
PROGRESS SLOWLY EWD TUES NIGHT INTO WED...LOCATING OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST LATE WED. WITH THE UPR LOW PIVOTING ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TUE/TUE NIGHT...WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
DEVELOP ESPECIALLY NORTH/NE WHERE BEST UPWARD MOTION IS
ANTICIPATED. HAVE CHANCE (POPS 25-40%) ALONG AND NE OF A LINE FROM
LKU-OFP-MFV ON TUE...THEN BEST CHANCE (30-50%) MAINLY ALONG THE
VA COAST AND ONTO THE EASTERN SHORE TUE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...WILL
CARRY NO HIGHER THEN 20% POPS. HIGHS TUE IN THE UPPER 60S NW TO
MID 70S SE. LOWS TUE NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. MOSTLY
CLOUDY NORTH TO PARTLY CLOUDY SOUTH DURING THIE TIME.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND OFFSHORE WED.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAIRLY DRY ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS AS THE
TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION SWING OFFSHORE. WILL THEREFORE KEEP CHC POPS
LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG AND NE OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR WED...WITH
EMPHASIS ON THE NORTHERN NECK AND EASTERN SHORE (30-50% POPS).
COULD END UP BEING DRY OVER FAR SW ZONES. COOLER WED WITH HIGHS
ONLY 60-65.

THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE WED NIGHT INTO THU...LOCATING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 00Z FRIDAY. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWER CHANCES
BY THEN WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN SHORE (20%). DECREASING
CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE
LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. COOL AGAIN THU WITH HIGHS 60-65.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ERN US EARLY
NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE MID 60S
TO AROUND 70 FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S SUNDAY...AND POTENTIALLY 70-75 BY MONDAY. LOWS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO THIS EVENG OVR THE TAF
SITES...WITH PERIODS OF MID LVL CLOUDINESS...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES ACRS THE AREA. LATER TNGT THRU THU...LO PRES WILL INTENSIFY
OFF THE NEW JERSEY AND NEW ENGLAND CSTS. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR
SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS...ESPLY OVR NRN AND ERN PORTIONS LATE TNGT
INTO WED NGT. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY THU AT SBY. THE LO
PRES SYSTEM WILL MOVE FARTHER AWAY TO THE NE AND HI PRES BLDS IN
FM THE NNW THU NGT INTO SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
10 PM UPDATE...WINDS AND SEAS HAVE INCREASED WELL OFFSHORE (OFF
THE MD COAST) ACCORDING TO BUOY 09. SEAS ARE JUST ABOUT 5 FT (4.9
FT LAST TWO HOURS). WINDS AND SEAS ARE MUCH LESS TOWARD THE COAST.
INCLUDED A STRIP OF 5 FT SEAS (THROUGH 06Z) IN THE ZONES N OF
PARRAMORE ISLAND BUT HOLDING OFF ON SCA FOR NOW.

HI RES MODELS ARE OVERDOING THE WINDS OVER THE BAY. AS AIR
TEMPERATURES COOL...MIXING WILL INCREASE AND WINDS MAY INCREASE
BUT EXPECT THEM TO STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT...ALLOWING THE WIND
TO REMAIN S/SW. EXPECT SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH WIND
SPEEDS AVERAGING UP TO 15-20 KT ACRS NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...AND
GENERALLY 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE COAST LATE TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY EVENTUAL SCA
CONDITIONS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SFC LOW PRESSURE
THEN DEEPENS OFF THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STALL
OFFSHORE THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. WITH FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FROM THE
NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/JAO
SHORT TERM...JDM/SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...AJZ/LSA







000
FXUS61 KRNK 210546
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
146 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY. FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD IN OUR DIRECTION...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT TUESDAY...

SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE AXIS
OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA THIS MORNING. ISOLATED CONVECTION WEST OF OUR AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ACROSS IT PUSHES EAST INTO OUR REGION. MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES AND POPS FOR THIS MORNING.


AS OF 925 PM EDT MONDAY...

SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE CROSSING
THROUGH SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA WERE EXITING THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING
AREA AT 9PM. RADAR ALSO SHOWED A BAND OF SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT
WAVE IN EASTERN OHIO. THE OHIO WAVE WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT.
MODELS KEEP A BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE IN THE
WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA THROUGH AROUND 3AM. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
MADE TO MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS
AND CLOUD TRENDS AND LATEST LAV GUIDANCE.

TUESDAY MORNING AROUND DAYBREAK...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. ANTICIPATE A
RESURGENCE OF UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN THE WEST...WITH A BIT MORE
COVERAGE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MIDDAY. A REINFORCING PIECE OF
ENERGY WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
THIS FEATURE IS ANTICIPATED TO ENHANCE THE UPSLOPE COVERAGE.
COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED OR LACKING ACROSS THE AREA NEAR SOUTHSIDE
VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THANKS TO
DOWNSLOPE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING IN THIS REGION. HIGHS TOMORROW
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...

FOCUS FOR MID WEEK WILL BE CLOSED LOW WHICH PARKS ITSELF OVER THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS FEATURE WILL
RESULT IN A MULTI-DAY COOL PERIOD WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS
AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. WITH THE LOW CENTERED TO OUR
NORTH...THE CLOUDIER CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR THE VIRGINIAS WITH
DRIER AIR RESULTING IN MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS...MAINLY
IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...AND
UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AT NIGHT. WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE VA/WV HIGHLANDS...QPF LOOKS PRETTY SCANT. THE VA/NC
HIGHLANDS MAY RECEIVE UPWARDS OF A QUARTER INCH OF PRECIP TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AND POSSIBLY NOTHING AT ALL.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER AND 850MB TEMPS HOVERING IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGIT
CENTIGRADE RANGE. THERE IS A POCKET OF NEAR 0C 850MB TEMPS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW THAT SETTLES DOWN OVER THE WESTERN PART
OF THE CWA...SO CAN`T RULE OUT A MIX OF -SN/RA AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE
3500 FEET...BUT NO ACCUMULATION CONCERNS ATTM DUE TO GROUND
TEMPERATURES BEING ABOVE FREEZING.  WE MAY NEED TO ENTERTAIN
FROST/FREEZE ADVISORIES LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT THIS APPEARS MARGINAL
PER LINGERING CLOUDINESS AND AT LEAST SOME MIXING FROM THE WIND.

USED A MODEL BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...MAX
TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK...AND MIN TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...

THE PRIMARY CLOSED LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION
FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW ONE FINAL SHOT OF COOL AIR WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON SATURDAY...BUT AFTER THAT...A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO BUILD EAST FROM THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DO A COUPLE OF
THINGS...ONE...SHUT DOWN THE COOL INTRUSIONS FROM THE NORTH...AND
TWO...CLOSE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM ANY MOISTURE...AT LEAST FOR A
FEW DAYS.  ALL THINGS CONSIDERED THIS SHOULD YIELD A DRY RELATIVELY
MILD START TO THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER.   TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY SHOULD FAVOR READINGS CLOSE TO NORMAL...WITH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL BY AT LEAST 5 DEGREES...POSSIBLY A
LITTLE MORE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 746 PM EDT MONDAY...

SHORTWAVE WILL PIVOT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. MVFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WEST WITH THE UPSLOPE FLOW AND COLD
ADVECTION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE EAST.

VERY LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE AT BLF...LWB...AND BCB THIS MORNING.
POCKETS OF FOG ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WHERE HEAVIER RAIN HAS FALLEN.
THE TAF SITE WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR FOG IS LWB WHERE LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING IFR/LIFR MAY BE POSSIBLE.

STRONGEST UPPER WAVE WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK WITH
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHWRS AND LOWERING CIGS TO THE LOW END OF MVFR.
CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF IFR IN SOME SHOWERS AT BLF AND LWB...WITH
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THESE CONDITIONS AT BCB.

EXPECT GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY TO SLOWLY TURNING MORE
NORTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WITH SOME
SHOWERS CONTINUING WESTERN SLOPES.

HIGH CONFIDENCES IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
PERIOD.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOW DOWN AND DEEPEN THROUGH MID WEEK
AND ONLY SLOWLY BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY THURSDAY. THE
MAIN IMPACT WITH BE A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GUSTY WIND AND
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THAT WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY THE PREFERRED
UPSLOPE REGION OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA INTO WED NIGHT OR EVEN
THURS MORNING. MVFR CLOUDS WILL THUS BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA TO LYH TO DAN
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW- LEVEL UPSLOPE
CLOUDS IN WEST WILL SLOWLY BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...FOR DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/KK
NEAR TERM...AMS/DS/KK
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...KK/SK



000
FXUS61 KRNK 210546
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
146 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY. FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD IN OUR DIRECTION...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT TUESDAY...

SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE AXIS
OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA THIS MORNING. ISOLATED CONVECTION WEST OF OUR AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ACROSS IT PUSHES EAST INTO OUR REGION. MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES AND POPS FOR THIS MORNING.


AS OF 925 PM EDT MONDAY...

SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE CROSSING
THROUGH SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA WERE EXITING THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING
AREA AT 9PM. RADAR ALSO SHOWED A BAND OF SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT
WAVE IN EASTERN OHIO. THE OHIO WAVE WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT.
MODELS KEEP A BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE IN THE
WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA THROUGH AROUND 3AM. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
MADE TO MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS
AND CLOUD TRENDS AND LATEST LAV GUIDANCE.

TUESDAY MORNING AROUND DAYBREAK...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. ANTICIPATE A
RESURGENCE OF UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN THE WEST...WITH A BIT MORE
COVERAGE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MIDDAY. A REINFORCING PIECE OF
ENERGY WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
THIS FEATURE IS ANTICIPATED TO ENHANCE THE UPSLOPE COVERAGE.
COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED OR LACKING ACROSS THE AREA NEAR SOUTHSIDE
VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THANKS TO
DOWNSLOPE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING IN THIS REGION. HIGHS TOMORROW
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...

FOCUS FOR MID WEEK WILL BE CLOSED LOW WHICH PARKS ITSELF OVER THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS FEATURE WILL
RESULT IN A MULTI-DAY COOL PERIOD WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS
AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. WITH THE LOW CENTERED TO OUR
NORTH...THE CLOUDIER CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR THE VIRGINIAS WITH
DRIER AIR RESULTING IN MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS...MAINLY
IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...AND
UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AT NIGHT. WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE VA/WV HIGHLANDS...QPF LOOKS PRETTY SCANT. THE VA/NC
HIGHLANDS MAY RECEIVE UPWARDS OF A QUARTER INCH OF PRECIP TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AND POSSIBLY NOTHING AT ALL.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER AND 850MB TEMPS HOVERING IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGIT
CENTIGRADE RANGE. THERE IS A POCKET OF NEAR 0C 850MB TEMPS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW THAT SETTLES DOWN OVER THE WESTERN PART
OF THE CWA...SO CAN`T RULE OUT A MIX OF -SN/RA AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE
3500 FEET...BUT NO ACCUMULATION CONCERNS ATTM DUE TO GROUND
TEMPERATURES BEING ABOVE FREEZING.  WE MAY NEED TO ENTERTAIN
FROST/FREEZE ADVISORIES LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT THIS APPEARS MARGINAL
PER LINGERING CLOUDINESS AND AT LEAST SOME MIXING FROM THE WIND.

USED A MODEL BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...MAX
TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK...AND MIN TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...

THE PRIMARY CLOSED LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION
FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW ONE FINAL SHOT OF COOL AIR WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON SATURDAY...BUT AFTER THAT...A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO BUILD EAST FROM THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DO A COUPLE OF
THINGS...ONE...SHUT DOWN THE COOL INTRUSIONS FROM THE NORTH...AND
TWO...CLOSE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM ANY MOISTURE...AT LEAST FOR A
FEW DAYS.  ALL THINGS CONSIDERED THIS SHOULD YIELD A DRY RELATIVELY
MILD START TO THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER.   TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY SHOULD FAVOR READINGS CLOSE TO NORMAL...WITH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL BY AT LEAST 5 DEGREES...POSSIBLY A
LITTLE MORE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 746 PM EDT MONDAY...

SHORTWAVE WILL PIVOT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. MVFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WEST WITH THE UPSLOPE FLOW AND COLD
ADVECTION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE EAST.

VERY LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE AT BLF...LWB...AND BCB THIS MORNING.
POCKETS OF FOG ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WHERE HEAVIER RAIN HAS FALLEN.
THE TAF SITE WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR FOG IS LWB WHERE LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING IFR/LIFR MAY BE POSSIBLE.

STRONGEST UPPER WAVE WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK WITH
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHWRS AND LOWERING CIGS TO THE LOW END OF MVFR.
CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF IFR IN SOME SHOWERS AT BLF AND LWB...WITH
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THESE CONDITIONS AT BCB.

EXPECT GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY TO SLOWLY TURNING MORE
NORTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WITH SOME
SHOWERS CONTINUING WESTERN SLOPES.

HIGH CONFIDENCES IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
PERIOD.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOW DOWN AND DEEPEN THROUGH MID WEEK
AND ONLY SLOWLY BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY THURSDAY. THE
MAIN IMPACT WITH BE A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GUSTY WIND AND
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THAT WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY THE PREFERRED
UPSLOPE REGION OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA INTO WED NIGHT OR EVEN
THURS MORNING. MVFR CLOUDS WILL THUS BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA TO LYH TO DAN
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW- LEVEL UPSLOPE
CLOUDS IN WEST WILL SLOWLY BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...FOR DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/KK
NEAR TERM...AMS/DS/KK
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...KK/SK




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210230
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1030 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOCATING
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FOR MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED WELL OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING
ALLOWING FOR A RELAXING PRES GRAD ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH A SFC COLD FRONT
REACHING THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS AROUND 12Z TUE.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH HAS BEEN
PROVIDING WEAK LIFT SUPPORTING A THIN BAND OF ISOLD SHOWERS ON
RADAR OVER THE WESTERN CWA...HOWEVER DUE TO THE DRY AIR IN PLACE
IN THE LOWER LEVELS MOST OF THE RADAR ARE RESULTING IN VIRGA. BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW OVERALL DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE TONIGHT (PW`S AOB
0.75")...SO IT WILL BE HARD TO GET MUCH OF PCPN TO REACH THE
GROUND. THE HRRR TIES TO DEVELOP A THIN BAND OF SHOWERS EAST OF
I-95 AROUND 06Z...BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE. THAT SAID
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW BRIEF SPRINKLES OVERNIGHT. OVERALL DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU TONIGHT WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUD
COVER. THE CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SW FLOW COULD KEEP SOME AREAS
FROM REACHING FORECAST LOWS KEEPING CONDITIONS MILDER. LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER WEST TO MID 50S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLOW AMPLIFIES DURING THE SHORT TERM AS A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS
OVER ERN CANADA. ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVES SOUTH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/OH VALLEY TUES THANKS TO A ~100 KT JET STREAK DIVING SWD
FROM CANADA. AS A RESULT...UPPER LOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NE STATES LATE TUESDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL
PROGRESS SLOWLY EWD TUES NIGHT INTO WED...LOCATING OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST LATE WED. WITH THE UPR LOW PIVOTING ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TUE/TUE NIGHT...WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
DEVELOP ESPECIALLY NORTH/NE WHERE BEST UPWARD MOTION IS
ANTICIPATED. HAVE CHANCE (POPS 25-40%) ALONG AND NE OF A LINE FROM
LKU-OFP-MFV ON TUE...THEN BEST CHANCE (30-50%) MAINLY ALONG THE
VA COAST AND ONTO THE EASTERN SHORE TUE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...WILL
CARRY NO HIGHER THEN 20% POPS. HIGHS TUE IN THE UPPER 60S NW TO
MID 70S SE. LOWS TUE NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. MOSTLY
CLOUDY NORTH TO PARTLY CLOUDY SOUTH DURING THIE TIME.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND OFFSHORE WED.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAIRLY DRY ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS AS THE
TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION SWING OFFSHORE. WILL THEREFORE KEEP CHC POPS
LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG AND NE OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR WED...WITH
EMPHASIS ON THE NORTHERN NECK AND EASTERN SHORE (30-50% POPS).
COULD END UP BEING DRY OVER FAR SW ZONES. COOLER WED WITH HIGHS
ONLY 60-65.

THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE WED NIGHT INTO THU...LOCATING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 00Z FRIDAY. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWER CHANCES
BY THEN WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN SHORE (20%). DECREASING
CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE
LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. COOL AGAIN THU WITH HIGHS 60-65.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ERN US EARLY
NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE MID 60S
TO AROUND 70 FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S SUNDAY...AND POTENTIALLY 70-75 BY MONDAY. LOWS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR WX IS FORECAST THROUGH 00Z TAF PERIOD. EXPECTING PERIODS OF MID
LVL CLDNS (CIGS MAINLY 10-15KFT) TNGT W/ SCT-BKN CLDNS (MAINLY 10-12
KFT) EARLY TUE MRNG LWRG TO 5-6K FT TUE AFTN. NO PCPN IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW LEVELS TOO DRY BUT THERE IS A CHC FOR SHOWERS
MAINLY AT SBY BY TUESDAY AFTN (NOT IN TAF). LIGHT S WINDS BECOME W
NEAR 10 KNOTS TOWARD MIDDAY TUESDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

OUTLOOK...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DEEPENS AND
LINGERS OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE WILL BE A
CHC FOR SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS (ESPECIALLY ERN PORTIONS) TUE NIGHT
AND WED ENDING WED NIGHT. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY THURSDAY
BUT NO SIGNIFICANT IFR IS INDICATED. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
AWAY FROM THE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRY AND VFR CONDS.

&&

.MARINE...
10 PM UPDATE...WINDS AND SEAS HAVE INCREASED WELL OFFSHORE (OFF
THE MD COAST) ACCORDING TO BUOY 09. SEAS ARE JUST ABOUT 5 FT (4.9
FT LAST TWO HOURS). WINDS AND SEAS ARE MUCH LESS TOWARD THE COAST.
INCLUDED A STRIP OF 5 FT SEAS (THROUGH 06Z) IN THE ZONES N OF
PARRAMORE ISLAND BUT HOLDING OFF ON SCA FOR NOW.

HI RES MODELS ARE OVERDOING THE WINDS OVER THE BAY. AS AIR
TEMPERATURES COOL...MIXING WILL INCREASE AND WINDS MAY INCREASE
BUT EXPECT THEM TO STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT...ALLOWING THE WIND
TO REMAIN S/SW. EXPECT SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH WIND
SPEEDS AVERAGING UP TO 15-20 KT ACRS NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...AND
GENERALLY 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE COAST LATE TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY EVENTUAL SCA
CONDITIONS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SFC LOW PRESSURE
THEN DEEPENS OFF THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STALL
OFFSHORE THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. WITH FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FROM THE
NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/JAO
SHORT TERM...JDM/SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ/LSA







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210230
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1030 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOCATING
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FOR MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED WELL OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING
ALLOWING FOR A RELAXING PRES GRAD ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH A SFC COLD FRONT
REACHING THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS AROUND 12Z TUE.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH HAS BEEN
PROVIDING WEAK LIFT SUPPORTING A THIN BAND OF ISOLD SHOWERS ON
RADAR OVER THE WESTERN CWA...HOWEVER DUE TO THE DRY AIR IN PLACE
IN THE LOWER LEVELS MOST OF THE RADAR ARE RESULTING IN VIRGA. BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW OVERALL DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE TONIGHT (PW`S AOB
0.75")...SO IT WILL BE HARD TO GET MUCH OF PCPN TO REACH THE
GROUND. THE HRRR TIES TO DEVELOP A THIN BAND OF SHOWERS EAST OF
I-95 AROUND 06Z...BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE. THAT SAID
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW BRIEF SPRINKLES OVERNIGHT. OVERALL DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU TONIGHT WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUD
COVER. THE CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SW FLOW COULD KEEP SOME AREAS
FROM REACHING FORECAST LOWS KEEPING CONDITIONS MILDER. LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER WEST TO MID 50S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLOW AMPLIFIES DURING THE SHORT TERM AS A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS
OVER ERN CANADA. ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVES SOUTH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/OH VALLEY TUES THANKS TO A ~100 KT JET STREAK DIVING SWD
FROM CANADA. AS A RESULT...UPPER LOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NE STATES LATE TUESDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL
PROGRESS SLOWLY EWD TUES NIGHT INTO WED...LOCATING OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST LATE WED. WITH THE UPR LOW PIVOTING ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TUE/TUE NIGHT...WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
DEVELOP ESPECIALLY NORTH/NE WHERE BEST UPWARD MOTION IS
ANTICIPATED. HAVE CHANCE (POPS 25-40%) ALONG AND NE OF A LINE FROM
LKU-OFP-MFV ON TUE...THEN BEST CHANCE (30-50%) MAINLY ALONG THE
VA COAST AND ONTO THE EASTERN SHORE TUE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...WILL
CARRY NO HIGHER THEN 20% POPS. HIGHS TUE IN THE UPPER 60S NW TO
MID 70S SE. LOWS TUE NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. MOSTLY
CLOUDY NORTH TO PARTLY CLOUDY SOUTH DURING THIE TIME.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND OFFSHORE WED.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAIRLY DRY ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS AS THE
TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION SWING OFFSHORE. WILL THEREFORE KEEP CHC POPS
LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG AND NE OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR WED...WITH
EMPHASIS ON THE NORTHERN NECK AND EASTERN SHORE (30-50% POPS).
COULD END UP BEING DRY OVER FAR SW ZONES. COOLER WED WITH HIGHS
ONLY 60-65.

THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE WED NIGHT INTO THU...LOCATING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 00Z FRIDAY. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWER CHANCES
BY THEN WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN SHORE (20%). DECREASING
CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE
LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. COOL AGAIN THU WITH HIGHS 60-65.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ERN US EARLY
NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE MID 60S
TO AROUND 70 FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S SUNDAY...AND POTENTIALLY 70-75 BY MONDAY. LOWS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR WX IS FORECAST THROUGH 00Z TAF PERIOD. EXPECTING PERIODS OF MID
LVL CLDNS (CIGS MAINLY 10-15KFT) TNGT W/ SCT-BKN CLDNS (MAINLY 10-12
KFT) EARLY TUE MRNG LWRG TO 5-6K FT TUE AFTN. NO PCPN IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW LEVELS TOO DRY BUT THERE IS A CHC FOR SHOWERS
MAINLY AT SBY BY TUESDAY AFTN (NOT IN TAF). LIGHT S WINDS BECOME W
NEAR 10 KNOTS TOWARD MIDDAY TUESDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

OUTLOOK...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DEEPENS AND
LINGERS OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE WILL BE A
CHC FOR SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS (ESPECIALLY ERN PORTIONS) TUE NIGHT
AND WED ENDING WED NIGHT. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY THURSDAY
BUT NO SIGNIFICANT IFR IS INDICATED. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
AWAY FROM THE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRY AND VFR CONDS.

&&

.MARINE...
10 PM UPDATE...WINDS AND SEAS HAVE INCREASED WELL OFFSHORE (OFF
THE MD COAST) ACCORDING TO BUOY 09. SEAS ARE JUST ABOUT 5 FT (4.9
FT LAST TWO HOURS). WINDS AND SEAS ARE MUCH LESS TOWARD THE COAST.
INCLUDED A STRIP OF 5 FT SEAS (THROUGH 06Z) IN THE ZONES N OF
PARRAMORE ISLAND BUT HOLDING OFF ON SCA FOR NOW.

HI RES MODELS ARE OVERDOING THE WINDS OVER THE BAY. AS AIR
TEMPERATURES COOL...MIXING WILL INCREASE AND WINDS MAY INCREASE
BUT EXPECT THEM TO STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT...ALLOWING THE WIND
TO REMAIN S/SW. EXPECT SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH WIND
SPEEDS AVERAGING UP TO 15-20 KT ACRS NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...AND
GENERALLY 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE COAST LATE TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY EVENTUAL SCA
CONDITIONS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SFC LOW PRESSURE
THEN DEEPENS OFF THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STALL
OFFSHORE THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. WITH FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FROM THE
NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/JAO
SHORT TERM...JDM/SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ/LSA







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210230
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1030 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOCATING
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FOR MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED WELL OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING
ALLOWING FOR A RELAXING PRES GRAD ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH A SFC COLD FRONT
REACHING THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS AROUND 12Z TUE.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH HAS BEEN
PROVIDING WEAK LIFT SUPPORTING A THIN BAND OF ISOLD SHOWERS ON
RADAR OVER THE WESTERN CWA...HOWEVER DUE TO THE DRY AIR IN PLACE
IN THE LOWER LEVELS MOST OF THE RADAR ARE RESULTING IN VIRGA. BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW OVERALL DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE TONIGHT (PW`S AOB
0.75")...SO IT WILL BE HARD TO GET MUCH OF PCPN TO REACH THE
GROUND. THE HRRR TIES TO DEVELOP A THIN BAND OF SHOWERS EAST OF
I-95 AROUND 06Z...BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE. THAT SAID
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW BRIEF SPRINKLES OVERNIGHT. OVERALL DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU TONIGHT WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUD
COVER. THE CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SW FLOW COULD KEEP SOME AREAS
FROM REACHING FORECAST LOWS KEEPING CONDITIONS MILDER. LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER WEST TO MID 50S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLOW AMPLIFIES DURING THE SHORT TERM AS A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS
OVER ERN CANADA. ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVES SOUTH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/OH VALLEY TUES THANKS TO A ~100 KT JET STREAK DIVING SWD
FROM CANADA. AS A RESULT...UPPER LOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NE STATES LATE TUESDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL
PROGRESS SLOWLY EWD TUES NIGHT INTO WED...LOCATING OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST LATE WED. WITH THE UPR LOW PIVOTING ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TUE/TUE NIGHT...WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
DEVELOP ESPECIALLY NORTH/NE WHERE BEST UPWARD MOTION IS
ANTICIPATED. HAVE CHANCE (POPS 25-40%) ALONG AND NE OF A LINE FROM
LKU-OFP-MFV ON TUE...THEN BEST CHANCE (30-50%) MAINLY ALONG THE
VA COAST AND ONTO THE EASTERN SHORE TUE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...WILL
CARRY NO HIGHER THEN 20% POPS. HIGHS TUE IN THE UPPER 60S NW TO
MID 70S SE. LOWS TUE NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. MOSTLY
CLOUDY NORTH TO PARTLY CLOUDY SOUTH DURING THIE TIME.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND OFFSHORE WED.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAIRLY DRY ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS AS THE
TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION SWING OFFSHORE. WILL THEREFORE KEEP CHC POPS
LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG AND NE OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR WED...WITH
EMPHASIS ON THE NORTHERN NECK AND EASTERN SHORE (30-50% POPS).
COULD END UP BEING DRY OVER FAR SW ZONES. COOLER WED WITH HIGHS
ONLY 60-65.

THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE WED NIGHT INTO THU...LOCATING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 00Z FRIDAY. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWER CHANCES
BY THEN WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN SHORE (20%). DECREASING
CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE
LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. COOL AGAIN THU WITH HIGHS 60-65.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ERN US EARLY
NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE MID 60S
TO AROUND 70 FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S SUNDAY...AND POTENTIALLY 70-75 BY MONDAY. LOWS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR WX IS FORECAST THROUGH 00Z TAF PERIOD. EXPECTING PERIODS OF MID
LVL CLDNS (CIGS MAINLY 10-15KFT) TNGT W/ SCT-BKN CLDNS (MAINLY 10-12
KFT) EARLY TUE MRNG LWRG TO 5-6K FT TUE AFTN. NO PCPN IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW LEVELS TOO DRY BUT THERE IS A CHC FOR SHOWERS
MAINLY AT SBY BY TUESDAY AFTN (NOT IN TAF). LIGHT S WINDS BECOME W
NEAR 10 KNOTS TOWARD MIDDAY TUESDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

OUTLOOK...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DEEPENS AND
LINGERS OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE WILL BE A
CHC FOR SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS (ESPECIALLY ERN PORTIONS) TUE NIGHT
AND WED ENDING WED NIGHT. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY THURSDAY
BUT NO SIGNIFICANT IFR IS INDICATED. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
AWAY FROM THE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRY AND VFR CONDS.

&&

.MARINE...
10 PM UPDATE...WINDS AND SEAS HAVE INCREASED WELL OFFSHORE (OFF
THE MD COAST) ACCORDING TO BUOY 09. SEAS ARE JUST ABOUT 5 FT (4.9
FT LAST TWO HOURS). WINDS AND SEAS ARE MUCH LESS TOWARD THE COAST.
INCLUDED A STRIP OF 5 FT SEAS (THROUGH 06Z) IN THE ZONES N OF
PARRAMORE ISLAND BUT HOLDING OFF ON SCA FOR NOW.

HI RES MODELS ARE OVERDOING THE WINDS OVER THE BAY. AS AIR
TEMPERATURES COOL...MIXING WILL INCREASE AND WINDS MAY INCREASE
BUT EXPECT THEM TO STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT...ALLOWING THE WIND
TO REMAIN S/SW. EXPECT SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH WIND
SPEEDS AVERAGING UP TO 15-20 KT ACRS NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...AND
GENERALLY 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE COAST LATE TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY EVENTUAL SCA
CONDITIONS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SFC LOW PRESSURE
THEN DEEPENS OFF THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STALL
OFFSHORE THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. WITH FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FROM THE
NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/JAO
SHORT TERM...JDM/SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ/LSA







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210230
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1030 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOCATING
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FOR MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED WELL OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING
ALLOWING FOR A RELAXING PRES GRAD ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH A SFC COLD FRONT
REACHING THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS AROUND 12Z TUE.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH HAS BEEN
PROVIDING WEAK LIFT SUPPORTING A THIN BAND OF ISOLD SHOWERS ON
RADAR OVER THE WESTERN CWA...HOWEVER DUE TO THE DRY AIR IN PLACE
IN THE LOWER LEVELS MOST OF THE RADAR ARE RESULTING IN VIRGA. BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW OVERALL DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE TONIGHT (PW`S AOB
0.75")...SO IT WILL BE HARD TO GET MUCH OF PCPN TO REACH THE
GROUND. THE HRRR TIES TO DEVELOP A THIN BAND OF SHOWERS EAST OF
I-95 AROUND 06Z...BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE. THAT SAID
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW BRIEF SPRINKLES OVERNIGHT. OVERALL DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU TONIGHT WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUD
COVER. THE CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SW FLOW COULD KEEP SOME AREAS
FROM REACHING FORECAST LOWS KEEPING CONDITIONS MILDER. LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER WEST TO MID 50S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLOW AMPLIFIES DURING THE SHORT TERM AS A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS
OVER ERN CANADA. ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVES SOUTH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/OH VALLEY TUES THANKS TO A ~100 KT JET STREAK DIVING SWD
FROM CANADA. AS A RESULT...UPPER LOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NE STATES LATE TUESDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL
PROGRESS SLOWLY EWD TUES NIGHT INTO WED...LOCATING OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST LATE WED. WITH THE UPR LOW PIVOTING ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TUE/TUE NIGHT...WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
DEVELOP ESPECIALLY NORTH/NE WHERE BEST UPWARD MOTION IS
ANTICIPATED. HAVE CHANCE (POPS 25-40%) ALONG AND NE OF A LINE FROM
LKU-OFP-MFV ON TUE...THEN BEST CHANCE (30-50%) MAINLY ALONG THE
VA COAST AND ONTO THE EASTERN SHORE TUE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...WILL
CARRY NO HIGHER THEN 20% POPS. HIGHS TUE IN THE UPPER 60S NW TO
MID 70S SE. LOWS TUE NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. MOSTLY
CLOUDY NORTH TO PARTLY CLOUDY SOUTH DURING THIE TIME.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND OFFSHORE WED.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAIRLY DRY ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS AS THE
TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION SWING OFFSHORE. WILL THEREFORE KEEP CHC POPS
LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG AND NE OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR WED...WITH
EMPHASIS ON THE NORTHERN NECK AND EASTERN SHORE (30-50% POPS).
COULD END UP BEING DRY OVER FAR SW ZONES. COOLER WED WITH HIGHS
ONLY 60-65.

THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE WED NIGHT INTO THU...LOCATING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 00Z FRIDAY. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWER CHANCES
BY THEN WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN SHORE (20%). DECREASING
CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE
LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. COOL AGAIN THU WITH HIGHS 60-65.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ERN US EARLY
NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE MID 60S
TO AROUND 70 FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S SUNDAY...AND POTENTIALLY 70-75 BY MONDAY. LOWS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR WX IS FORECAST THROUGH 00Z TAF PERIOD. EXPECTING PERIODS OF MID
LVL CLDNS (CIGS MAINLY 10-15KFT) TNGT W/ SCT-BKN CLDNS (MAINLY 10-12
KFT) EARLY TUE MRNG LWRG TO 5-6K FT TUE AFTN. NO PCPN IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW LEVELS TOO DRY BUT THERE IS A CHC FOR SHOWERS
MAINLY AT SBY BY TUESDAY AFTN (NOT IN TAF). LIGHT S WINDS BECOME W
NEAR 10 KNOTS TOWARD MIDDAY TUESDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

OUTLOOK...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DEEPENS AND
LINGERS OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE WILL BE A
CHC FOR SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS (ESPECIALLY ERN PORTIONS) TUE NIGHT
AND WED ENDING WED NIGHT. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY THURSDAY
BUT NO SIGNIFICANT IFR IS INDICATED. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
AWAY FROM THE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRY AND VFR CONDS.

&&

.MARINE...
10 PM UPDATE...WINDS AND SEAS HAVE INCREASED WELL OFFSHORE (OFF
THE MD COAST) ACCORDING TO BUOY 09. SEAS ARE JUST ABOUT 5 FT (4.9
FT LAST TWO HOURS). WINDS AND SEAS ARE MUCH LESS TOWARD THE COAST.
INCLUDED A STRIP OF 5 FT SEAS (THROUGH 06Z) IN THE ZONES N OF
PARRAMORE ISLAND BUT HOLDING OFF ON SCA FOR NOW.

HI RES MODELS ARE OVERDOING THE WINDS OVER THE BAY. AS AIR
TEMPERATURES COOL...MIXING WILL INCREASE AND WINDS MAY INCREASE
BUT EXPECT THEM TO STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT...ALLOWING THE WIND
TO REMAIN S/SW. EXPECT SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH WIND
SPEEDS AVERAGING UP TO 15-20 KT ACRS NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...AND
GENERALLY 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE COAST LATE TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY EVENTUAL SCA
CONDITIONS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SFC LOW PRESSURE
THEN DEEPENS OFF THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STALL
OFFSHORE THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. WITH FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FROM THE
NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/JAO
SHORT TERM...JDM/SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ/LSA







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210144
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
944 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOCATING
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FOR MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED WELL OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING
ALLOWING FOR A RELAXING PRES GRAD ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH A SFC COLD FRONT
REACHING THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS AROUND 12Z TUE.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH HAS BEEN
PROVIDING WEAK LIFT SUPPORTING A THIN BAND OF ISOLD SHOWERS ON
RADAR OVER THE WESTERN CWA...HOWEVER DUE TO THE DRY AIR IN PLACE
IN THE LOWER LEVELS MOST OF THE RADAR ARE RESULTING IN VIRGA. BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW OVERALL DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE TONIGHT (PW`S AOB
0.75")...SO IT WILL BE HARD TO GET MUCH OF PCPN TO REACH THE
GROUND. THE HRRR TIES TO DEVELOP A THIN BAND OF SHOWERS EAST OF
I-95 AROUND 06Z...BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE. THAT SAID
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW BRIEF SPRINKLES OVERNIGHT. OVERALL DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU TONIGHT WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUD
COVER. THE CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SW FLOW COULD KEEP SOME AREAS
FROM REACHING FORECAST LOWS KEEPING CONDITIONS MILDER. LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER WEST TO MID 50S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLOW AMPLIFIES DURING THE SHORT TERM AS A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS
OVER ERN CANADA. ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVES SOUTH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/OH VALLEY TUES THANKS TO A ~100 KT JET STREAK DIVING SWD
FROM CANADA. AS A RESULT...UPPER LOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NE STATES LATE TUESDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL
PROGRESS SLOWLY EWD TUES NIGHT INTO WED...LOCATING OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST LATE WED. WITH THE UPR LOW PIVOTING ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TUE/TUE NIGHT...WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
DEVELOP ESPECIALLY NORTH/NE WHERE BEST UPWARD MOTION IS
ANTICIPATED. HAVE CHANCE (POPS 25-40%) ALONG AND NE OF A LINE FROM
LKU-OFP-MFV ON TUE...THEN BEST CHANCE (30-50%) MAINLY ALONG THE
VA COAST AND ONTO THE EASTERN SHORE TUE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...WILL
CARRY NO HIGHER THEN 20% POPS. HIGHS TUE IN THE UPPER 60S NW TO
MID 70S SE. LOWS TUE NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. MOSTLY
CLOUDY NORTH TO PARTLY CLOUDY SOUTH DURING THIE TIME.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND OFFSHORE WED.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAIRLY DRY ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS AS THE
TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION SWING OFFSHORE. WILL THEREFORE KEEP CHC POPS
LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG AND NE OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR WED...WITH
EMPHASIS ON THE NORTHERN NECK AND EASTERN SHORE (30-50% POPS).
COULD END UP BEING DRY OVER FAR SW ZONES. COOLER WED WITH HIGHS
ONLY 60-65.

THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE WED NIGHT INTO THU...LOCATING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 00Z FRIDAY. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWER CHANCES
BY THEN WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN SHORE (20%). DECREASING
CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE
LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. COOL AGAIN THU WITH HIGHS 60-65.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ERN US EARLY
NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE MID 60S
TO AROUND 70 FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S SUNDAY...AND POTENTIALLY 70-75 BY MONDAY. LOWS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR WX IS FORECAST THROUGH 00Z TAF PERIOD. EXPECTING PERIODS OF MID
LVL CLDNS (CIGS MAINLY 10-15KFT) TNGT W/ SCT-BKN CLDNS (MAINLY 10-12
KFT) EARLY TUE MRNG LWRG TO 5-6K FT TUE AFTN. NO PCPN IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW LEVELS TOO DRY BUT THERE IS A CHC FOR SHOWERS
MAINLY AT SBY BY TUESDAY AFTN (NOT IN TAF). LIGHT S WINDS BECOME W
NEAR 10 KNOTS TOWARD MIDDAY TUESDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

OUTLOOK...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DEEPENS AND
LINGERS OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE WILL BE A
CHC FOR SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS (ESPECIALLY ERN PORTIONS) TUE NIGHT
AND WED ENDING WED NIGHT. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY THURSDAY
BUT NO SIGNIFICANT IFR IS INDICATED. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
AWAY FROM THE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRY AND VFR CONDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT...ALLOWING THE WIND TO
REMAIN S/SW. EXPECT SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH WIND SPEEDS
AVERAGING UP TO 15-20 KT ACRS NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...AND
GENERALLY 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE COAST LATE TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY EVENTUAL SCA
CONDITIONS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SFC LOW
PRESSURE THEN DEEPENS OFF THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
STALL OFFSHORE THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. WITH FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FROM
THE NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/JAO
SHORT TERM...JDM/SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ







000
FXUS61 KRNK 210130
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
930 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION OVERNIGHT...AND CROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY. FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY BETWEEN THE DEPARTING PARENT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN OUR
DIRECTION...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 925 PM EDT MONDAY...

SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE CROSSING
THROUGH SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA WERE EXITING THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING
AREA AT 9PM. RADAR ALSO SHOWED A BAND OF SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT
WAVE IN EASTERN OHIO. THE OHIO WAVE WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT.
MODELS KEEP A BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE IN THE
WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA THROUGH AROUND 3AM. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
MADE TO MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS
AND CLOUD TRENDS AND LATEST LAV GUIDANCE.

TUESDAY MORNING AROUND DAYBREAK...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. ANTICIPATE A
RESURGENCE OF UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN THE WEST...WITH A BIT MORE
COVERAGE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MIDDAY. A REINFORCING PIECE OF
ENERGY WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
THIS FEATURE IS ANTICIPATED TO ENHANCE THE UPSLOPE COVERAGE.
COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED OR LACKING ACROSS THE AREA NEAR SOUTHSIDE
VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THANKS TO
DOWNSLOPE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING IN THIS REGION. HIGHS TOMORROW
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...

FOCUS FOR MID WEEK WILL BE CLOSED LOW WHICH PARKS ITSELF OVER THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS FEATURE WILL
RESULT IN A MULTI-DAY COOL PERIOD WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS
AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. WITH THE LOW CENTERED TO OUR
NORTH...THE CLOUDIER CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR THE VIRGINIAS WITH
DRIER AIR RESULTING IN MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS...MAINLY
IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...AND
UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AT NIGHT. WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE VA/WV HIGHLANDS...QPF LOOKS PRETTY SCANT. THE VA/NC
HIGHLANDS MAY RECEIVE UPWARDS OF A QUARTER INCH OF PRECIP TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AND POSSIBLY NOTHING AT ALL.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER AND 850MB TEMPS HOVERING IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGIT
CENTIGRADE RANGE. THERE IS A POCKET OF NEAR 0C 850MB TEMPS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW THAT SETTLES DOWN OVER THE WESTERN PART
OF THE CWA...SO CAN`T RULE OUT A MIX OF -SN/RA AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE
3500 FEET...BUT NO ACCUMULATION CONCERNS ATTM DUE TO GROUND
TEMPERATURES BEING ABOVE FREEZING.  WE MAY NEED TO ENTERTAIN
FROST/FREEZE ADVISORIES LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT THIS APPEARS MARGINAL
PER LINGERING CLOUDINESS AND AT LEAST SOME MIXING FROM THE WIND.

USED A MODEL BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...MAX
TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK...AND MIN TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...

THE PRIMARY CLOSED LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION
FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW ONE FINAL SHOT OF COOL AIR WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON SATURDAY...BUT AFTER THAT...A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO BUILD EAST FROM THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DO A COUPLE OF
THINGS...ONE...SHUT DOWN THE COOL INTRUSIONS FROM THE NORTH...AND
TWO...CLOSE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM ANY MOISTURE...AT LEAST FOR A
FEW DAYS.  ALL THINGS CONSIDERED THIS SHOULD YIELD A DRY RELATIVELY
MILD START TO THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER.   TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY SHOULD FAVOR READINGS CLOSE TO NORMAL...WITH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL BY AT LEAST 5 DEGREES...POSSIBLY A
LITTLE MORE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT MONDAY...

FIRST UPPER LEVEL WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH
ZONE OF LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE
PIEDMONT. CIGS REMAIN MID LEVEL VFR AND PRECIP VERY LIGHT NOT TO
REDUCE VSBYS INTO MVFR RANGE EITHER...AND THESE WILL CONTINUE TO
LIGHTEN AND DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE INTO PIEDMONT APPROACHING
LYH...AND MAY NOT EVEN REACH DAN. BEHIND THIS...MORE WESTERLY
FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY BRING MVFR CIGS TO UPSLOPE LOCATIONS
INCLUDING BLF AND LWB AFTER 04 UTC TONIGHT...BUT LESS CONFIDENT
IN ANY SUB VFR CIGS ELSEWHERE. WITH VERY LIGHT RAIN AT
BLF...LWB...AND BCB...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT FOG LATE
TONIGHT...BUT KEEPING THIS MVFR EXCEPT FOR LWB WHERE LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING ALL THE WAY DOWN TO 1/4 MI. AM GOING WITH
TEMPO GROUP LIFR AT LWB BUT NOT ALL THE WAY DOWN TO 1/4.

COULD STILL BE BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT SHWRS LATE TONIGHT IN THE
WESTERN SLOPES WITH SECOND WEAK SHORT WAVE...BUT STRONGEST UPPER
WAVE WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK WITH BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHWRS AND LOWERING CIGS TO THE LOW END OF MVFR. CANNOT RULE OUT
BRIEF IFR IN SOME SHOWERS AT BLF AND LWB...WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN THESE CONDITIONS AT BCB. SHWRS NOT LIKELY TO REACH WEST OF
BLUE RIDGE AND IF THEY DO SHOULD STILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH VFR
CIGS. OTHERWISE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TUESDAY EXPECT GUSTY
WNW WINDS SLOWLY TURNING MORE NW BY LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY AND
INTO THE EVENING WITH SOME SHOWERS CONTINUING WESTERN SLOPES.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOW DOWN AND DEEPEN THROUGH MID WEEK
AND ONLY SLOWLY BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY THURSDAY. THE
MAIN IMPACT WITH BE A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GUSTY WIND AND
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THAT WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY THE PREFERRED
UPSLOPE REGION OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA INTO WED NIGHT OR EVEN
THURS MORNING. MVFR CLOUDS WILL THUS BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA TO LYH TO DAN
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW- LEVEL UPSLOPE
CLOUDS IN WEST WILL SLOWLY BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...FOR DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...AMS/DS
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...MBS/SK




000
FXUS61 KRNK 210130
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
930 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION OVERNIGHT...AND CROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY. FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY BETWEEN THE DEPARTING PARENT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN OUR
DIRECTION...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 925 PM EDT MONDAY...

SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE CROSSING
THROUGH SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA WERE EXITING THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING
AREA AT 9PM. RADAR ALSO SHOWED A BAND OF SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT
WAVE IN EASTERN OHIO. THE OHIO WAVE WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT.
MODELS KEEP A BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE IN THE
WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA THROUGH AROUND 3AM. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
MADE TO MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS
AND CLOUD TRENDS AND LATEST LAV GUIDANCE.

TUESDAY MORNING AROUND DAYBREAK...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. ANTICIPATE A
RESURGENCE OF UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN THE WEST...WITH A BIT MORE
COVERAGE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MIDDAY. A REINFORCING PIECE OF
ENERGY WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
THIS FEATURE IS ANTICIPATED TO ENHANCE THE UPSLOPE COVERAGE.
COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED OR LACKING ACROSS THE AREA NEAR SOUTHSIDE
VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THANKS TO
DOWNSLOPE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING IN THIS REGION. HIGHS TOMORROW
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...

FOCUS FOR MID WEEK WILL BE CLOSED LOW WHICH PARKS ITSELF OVER THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS FEATURE WILL
RESULT IN A MULTI-DAY COOL PERIOD WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS
AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. WITH THE LOW CENTERED TO OUR
NORTH...THE CLOUDIER CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR THE VIRGINIAS WITH
DRIER AIR RESULTING IN MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS...MAINLY
IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...AND
UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AT NIGHT. WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE VA/WV HIGHLANDS...QPF LOOKS PRETTY SCANT. THE VA/NC
HIGHLANDS MAY RECEIVE UPWARDS OF A QUARTER INCH OF PRECIP TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AND POSSIBLY NOTHING AT ALL.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER AND 850MB TEMPS HOVERING IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGIT
CENTIGRADE RANGE. THERE IS A POCKET OF NEAR 0C 850MB TEMPS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW THAT SETTLES DOWN OVER THE WESTERN PART
OF THE CWA...SO CAN`T RULE OUT A MIX OF -SN/RA AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE
3500 FEET...BUT NO ACCUMULATION CONCERNS ATTM DUE TO GROUND
TEMPERATURES BEING ABOVE FREEZING.  WE MAY NEED TO ENTERTAIN
FROST/FREEZE ADVISORIES LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT THIS APPEARS MARGINAL
PER LINGERING CLOUDINESS AND AT LEAST SOME MIXING FROM THE WIND.

USED A MODEL BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...MAX
TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK...AND MIN TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...

THE PRIMARY CLOSED LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION
FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW ONE FINAL SHOT OF COOL AIR WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON SATURDAY...BUT AFTER THAT...A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO BUILD EAST FROM THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DO A COUPLE OF
THINGS...ONE...SHUT DOWN THE COOL INTRUSIONS FROM THE NORTH...AND
TWO...CLOSE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM ANY MOISTURE...AT LEAST FOR A
FEW DAYS.  ALL THINGS CONSIDERED THIS SHOULD YIELD A DRY RELATIVELY
MILD START TO THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER.   TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY SHOULD FAVOR READINGS CLOSE TO NORMAL...WITH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL BY AT LEAST 5 DEGREES...POSSIBLY A
LITTLE MORE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT MONDAY...

FIRST UPPER LEVEL WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH
ZONE OF LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE
PIEDMONT. CIGS REMAIN MID LEVEL VFR AND PRECIP VERY LIGHT NOT TO
REDUCE VSBYS INTO MVFR RANGE EITHER...AND THESE WILL CONTINUE TO
LIGHTEN AND DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE INTO PIEDMONT APPROACHING
LYH...AND MAY NOT EVEN REACH DAN. BEHIND THIS...MORE WESTERLY
FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY BRING MVFR CIGS TO UPSLOPE LOCATIONS
INCLUDING BLF AND LWB AFTER 04 UTC TONIGHT...BUT LESS CONFIDENT
IN ANY SUB VFR CIGS ELSEWHERE. WITH VERY LIGHT RAIN AT
BLF...LWB...AND BCB...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT FOG LATE
TONIGHT...BUT KEEPING THIS MVFR EXCEPT FOR LWB WHERE LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING ALL THE WAY DOWN TO 1/4 MI. AM GOING WITH
TEMPO GROUP LIFR AT LWB BUT NOT ALL THE WAY DOWN TO 1/4.

COULD STILL BE BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT SHWRS LATE TONIGHT IN THE
WESTERN SLOPES WITH SECOND WEAK SHORT WAVE...BUT STRONGEST UPPER
WAVE WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK WITH BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHWRS AND LOWERING CIGS TO THE LOW END OF MVFR. CANNOT RULE OUT
BRIEF IFR IN SOME SHOWERS AT BLF AND LWB...WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN THESE CONDITIONS AT BCB. SHWRS NOT LIKELY TO REACH WEST OF
BLUE RIDGE AND IF THEY DO SHOULD STILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH VFR
CIGS. OTHERWISE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TUESDAY EXPECT GUSTY
WNW WINDS SLOWLY TURNING MORE NW BY LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY AND
INTO THE EVENING WITH SOME SHOWERS CONTINUING WESTERN SLOPES.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOW DOWN AND DEEPEN THROUGH MID WEEK
AND ONLY SLOWLY BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY THURSDAY. THE
MAIN IMPACT WITH BE A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GUSTY WIND AND
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THAT WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY THE PREFERRED
UPSLOPE REGION OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA INTO WED NIGHT OR EVEN
THURS MORNING. MVFR CLOUDS WILL THUS BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA TO LYH TO DAN
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW- LEVEL UPSLOPE
CLOUDS IN WEST WILL SLOWLY BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...FOR DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...AMS/DS
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...MBS/SK



000
FXUS61 KLWX 210054
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
854 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST NEAR THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE
END OF THE WORKWEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT.

AN AREA OF VORTICITY ADVECTION IS MOVING AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THIS EVENING. SHOWERS HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND BLUE RIDGE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD. THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO A DRY AIRMASS AND ONLY
HUNDREDTHS ARE EXPECTED IN PLACES THAT RECIEVE RAIN THIS EVENING.
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD TONIGHT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHLANDS. WESTERLY
FLOW AGAINST THE MTNS WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED LIFT AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY. FCST MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE 40S AND NEAR 50 IN THE
METROS.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES OVER HEAD. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES AND THEREFORE SOME INSTABILITY. ADDED ISOLATED TSTMS TO
AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LITTLE WIND FIELD
WILL LIMIT GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FCST MAX TEMPS ARE IN
THE 60S TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OCCLUDED AND STRENGTHEN NEAR
THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN DUE TO BAROCLINIC ENHANCEMENT AS
IT MOVES OVER RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN WATERS OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST DURING THIS TIME. POPS WILL REMAIN FOCUSED OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AS STORMS PRECIP SHIELDS SLOWLY
STAGGERS NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE LOW. WE SHOULD SEE A RESPECTABLE QPF
GRADIENT WITH THE AREAS ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE BAY RECEIVING
ONLY A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL WHILE LOCATIONS ON
THE THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WILL SEE SIGNIFICANTLY MORE DUE TO THEIR
PROXIMITY OT THE LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MAJOR FORECAST CHALLENGE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW IS THE
UPSLOPE PRECIP THREAT. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ALONG THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS WILL SEE LOW TEMPS THAT MAY DIP INTO THE MID 30S
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND GIVEN THE FETCH OF THE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER
THE GREAT LAKES UPSTREAM OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT THE OPTION TO
INCLUDE SNOW AS A PRECIP TYPE WAS TEMPTING. BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE
LAYER OF ABOVE-FREEZING AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WILL BE A BIT TOO
THICK FOR ANY SNOWFALL. THIS MAY CHANGE IN UPCOMING FORECASTS AS
CONFIDENCE IN LOW TEMPS INCREASES...BUT EVEN IF A FEW FLAKES DO
FALL NO ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL NOSE
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
OVERALL...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE BEAUTIFUL FALL DAYS WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND HIGHS IN THE MID-60S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT WORKWEEK AND OUR NEXT
THREAT FOR ADVERSE WEATHER SHOULD NOT PRESENT ITSELF UNTIL THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY. PERIODIC SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR POSSIBLE...BUT
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT THIS
TIME. LIGHT W WINDS TUESDAY.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OCCURRENCE OF AVIATION HAZARDS THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY CHANNELING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MD CHESAPEAKE BAY
SOUTH OF POOLES ISLAND/TANGIER SOUND AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC
UNTIL 2 AM. WLY FLOW TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. LIGHT S WINDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT...TRENDING TOWARDS
THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY NW DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS JUST OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY ALSO BE NEEDED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AS BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS FILL IN BEHIND LOW PRESSURE
DEPARTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOMALIES BACK ON THE RISE...APPROACHING 1 FT TONIGHT UNDER
SOUTHERLY WINDS. FORECASTS FOR WASHINGTON CHANNEL...BALTIMORE AND
ANNAPOLIS SHOW LIKELIHOOD TO REACH ACTION STAGES IN THE NEXT TWO
HIGH TIDE CYCLES TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME FALL
SHORT OF MINOR INUNDATION.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ531>534-537-
     539>541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...KS/CEB
MARINE...KS/CEB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KLWX 210054
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
854 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST NEAR THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE
END OF THE WORKWEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT.

AN AREA OF VORTICITY ADVECTION IS MOVING AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THIS EVENING. SHOWERS HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND BLUE RIDGE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD. THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO A DRY AIRMASS AND ONLY
HUNDREDTHS ARE EXPECTED IN PLACES THAT RECIEVE RAIN THIS EVENING.
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD TONIGHT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHLANDS. WESTERLY
FLOW AGAINST THE MTNS WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED LIFT AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY. FCST MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE 40S AND NEAR 50 IN THE
METROS.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES OVER HEAD. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES AND THEREFORE SOME INSTABILITY. ADDED ISOLATED TSTMS TO
AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LITTLE WIND FIELD
WILL LIMIT GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FCST MAX TEMPS ARE IN
THE 60S TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OCCLUDED AND STRENGTHEN NEAR
THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN DUE TO BAROCLINIC ENHANCEMENT AS
IT MOVES OVER RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN WATERS OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST DURING THIS TIME. POPS WILL REMAIN FOCUSED OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AS STORMS PRECIP SHIELDS SLOWLY
STAGGERS NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE LOW. WE SHOULD SEE A RESPECTABLE QPF
GRADIENT WITH THE AREAS ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE BAY RECEIVING
ONLY A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL WHILE LOCATIONS ON
THE THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WILL SEE SIGNIFICANTLY MORE DUE TO THEIR
PROXIMITY OT THE LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MAJOR FORECAST CHALLENGE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW IS THE
UPSLOPE PRECIP THREAT. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ALONG THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS WILL SEE LOW TEMPS THAT MAY DIP INTO THE MID 30S
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND GIVEN THE FETCH OF THE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER
THE GREAT LAKES UPSTREAM OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT THE OPTION TO
INCLUDE SNOW AS A PRECIP TYPE WAS TEMPTING. BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE
LAYER OF ABOVE-FREEZING AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WILL BE A BIT TOO
THICK FOR ANY SNOWFALL. THIS MAY CHANGE IN UPCOMING FORECASTS AS
CONFIDENCE IN LOW TEMPS INCREASES...BUT EVEN IF A FEW FLAKES DO
FALL NO ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL NOSE
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
OVERALL...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE BEAUTIFUL FALL DAYS WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND HIGHS IN THE MID-60S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT WORKWEEK AND OUR NEXT
THREAT FOR ADVERSE WEATHER SHOULD NOT PRESENT ITSELF UNTIL THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY. PERIODIC SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR POSSIBLE...BUT
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT THIS
TIME. LIGHT W WINDS TUESDAY.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OCCURRENCE OF AVIATION HAZARDS THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY CHANNELING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MD CHESAPEAKE BAY
SOUTH OF POOLES ISLAND/TANGIER SOUND AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC
UNTIL 2 AM. WLY FLOW TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. LIGHT S WINDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT...TRENDING TOWARDS
THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY NW DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS JUST OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY ALSO BE NEEDED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AS BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS FILL IN BEHIND LOW PRESSURE
DEPARTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOMALIES BACK ON THE RISE...APPROACHING 1 FT TONIGHT UNDER
SOUTHERLY WINDS. FORECASTS FOR WASHINGTON CHANNEL...BALTIMORE AND
ANNAPOLIS SHOW LIKELIHOOD TO REACH ACTION STAGES IN THE NEXT TWO
HIGH TIDE CYCLES TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME FALL
SHORT OF MINOR INUNDATION.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ531>534-537-
     539>541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...KS/CEB
MARINE...KS/CEB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210027
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
827 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOCATING
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FOR MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH OFFSHORE THRU THIS EVENING.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES/NORTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH A SFC COLD FRONT REACHING THE
SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS AROUND 12Z TUE. SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR AN
ISOLD SHOWER OVER OUR FAR NW ZONES...AND ALSO OVER THE NORTHERN
OBX...THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW OVERALL DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE TONIGHT (PW`S AOB 0.75")...SO WOULD BE HARD TO
GET MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN. OTW...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THRU TONIGHT WITH SKY CONDITIONS BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.
CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SW FLOW WILL BRING MILDER TEMPS THAN LAST
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 40S WEST TO LOW/MID 50S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLOW AMPLIFIES DURING THE SHORT TERM AS A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS
OVER ERN CANADA. ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVES SOUTH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/OH VALLEY TUES THANKS TO A ~100 KT JET STREAK DIVING SWD
FROM CANADA. AS A RESULT...UPPER LOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NE STATES LATE TUESDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL
PROGRESS SLOWLY EWD TUES NIGHT INTO WED...LOCATING OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST LATE WED. WITH THE UPR LOW PIVOTING ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TUE/TUE NIGHT...WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
DEVELOP ESPECIALLY NORTH/NE WHERE BEST UPWARD MOTION IS
ANTICIPATED. HAVE CHANCE (POPS 25-40%) ALONG AND NE OF A LINE FROM
LKU-OFP-MFV ON TUE...THEN BEST CHANCE (30-50%) MAINLY ALONG THE
VA COAST AND ONTO THE EASTERN SHORE TUE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...WILL
CARRY NO HIGHER THEN 20% POPS. HIGHS TUE IN THE UPPER 60S NW TO
MID 70S SE. LOWS TUE NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. MOSTLY
CLOUDY NORTH TO PARTLY CLOUDY SOUTH DURING THIE TIME.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND OFFSHORE WED.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAIRLY DRY ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS AS THE
TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION SWING OFFSHORE. WILL THEREFORE KEEP CHC POPS
LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG AND NE OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR WED...WITH
EMPHASIS ON THE NORTHERN NECK AND EASTERN SHORE (30-50% POPS).
COULD END UP BEING DRY OVER FAR SW ZONES. COOLER WED WITH HIGHS
ONLY 60-65.

THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE WED NIGHT INTO THU...LOCATING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 00Z FRIDAY. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWER CHANCES
BY THEN WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN SHORE (20%). DECREASING
CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE
LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. COOL AGAIN THU WITH HIGHS 60-65.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ERN US EARLY
NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE MID 60S
TO AROUND 70 FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S SUNDAY...AND POTENTIALLY 70-75 BY MONDAY. LOWS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR WX IS FORECAST THROUGH 00Z TAF PERIOD. EXPECTING PERIODS OF MID
LVL CLDNS (CIGS MAINLY 10-15KFT) TNGT W/ SCT-BKN CLDNS (MAINLY 10-12
KFT) EARLY TUE MRNG LWRG TO 5-6K FT TUE AFTN. NO PCPN IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW LEVELS TOO DRY BUT THERE IS A CHC FOR SHOWERS
MAINLY AT SBY BY TUESDAY AFTN (NOT IN TAF). LIGHT S WINDS BECOME W
NEAR 10 KNOTS TOWARD MIDDAY TUESDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

OUTLOOK...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DEEPENS AND
LINGERS OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE WILL BE A
CHC FOR SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS (ESPECIALLY ERN PORTIONS) TUE NIGHT
AND WED ENDING WED NIGHT. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY THURSDAY
BUT NO SIGNIFICANT IFR IS INDICATED. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
AWAY FROM THE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRY AND VFR CONDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT...ALLOWING THE WIND TO
REMAIN S/SW. EXPECT SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH WIND SPEEDS
AVERAGING UP TO 15-20 KT ACRS NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...AND
GENERALLY 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE COAST LATE TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY EVENTUAL SCA
CONDITIONS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SFC LOW
PRESSURE THEN DEEPENS OFF THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
STALL OFFSHORE THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. WITH FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FROM
THE NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM/SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210027
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
827 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOCATING
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FOR MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH OFFSHORE THRU THIS EVENING.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES/NORTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH A SFC COLD FRONT REACHING THE
SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS AROUND 12Z TUE. SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR AN
ISOLD SHOWER OVER OUR FAR NW ZONES...AND ALSO OVER THE NORTHERN
OBX...THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW OVERALL DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE TONIGHT (PW`S AOB 0.75")...SO WOULD BE HARD TO
GET MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN. OTW...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THRU TONIGHT WITH SKY CONDITIONS BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.
CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SW FLOW WILL BRING MILDER TEMPS THAN LAST
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 40S WEST TO LOW/MID 50S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLOW AMPLIFIES DURING THE SHORT TERM AS A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS
OVER ERN CANADA. ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVES SOUTH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/OH VALLEY TUES THANKS TO A ~100 KT JET STREAK DIVING SWD
FROM CANADA. AS A RESULT...UPPER LOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NE STATES LATE TUESDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL
PROGRESS SLOWLY EWD TUES NIGHT INTO WED...LOCATING OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST LATE WED. WITH THE UPR LOW PIVOTING ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TUE/TUE NIGHT...WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
DEVELOP ESPECIALLY NORTH/NE WHERE BEST UPWARD MOTION IS
ANTICIPATED. HAVE CHANCE (POPS 25-40%) ALONG AND NE OF A LINE FROM
LKU-OFP-MFV ON TUE...THEN BEST CHANCE (30-50%) MAINLY ALONG THE
VA COAST AND ONTO THE EASTERN SHORE TUE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...WILL
CARRY NO HIGHER THEN 20% POPS. HIGHS TUE IN THE UPPER 60S NW TO
MID 70S SE. LOWS TUE NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. MOSTLY
CLOUDY NORTH TO PARTLY CLOUDY SOUTH DURING THIE TIME.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND OFFSHORE WED.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAIRLY DRY ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS AS THE
TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION SWING OFFSHORE. WILL THEREFORE KEEP CHC POPS
LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG AND NE OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR WED...WITH
EMPHASIS ON THE NORTHERN NECK AND EASTERN SHORE (30-50% POPS).
COULD END UP BEING DRY OVER FAR SW ZONES. COOLER WED WITH HIGHS
ONLY 60-65.

THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE WED NIGHT INTO THU...LOCATING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 00Z FRIDAY. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWER CHANCES
BY THEN WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN SHORE (20%). DECREASING
CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE
LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. COOL AGAIN THU WITH HIGHS 60-65.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ERN US EARLY
NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE MID 60S
TO AROUND 70 FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S SUNDAY...AND POTENTIALLY 70-75 BY MONDAY. LOWS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR WX IS FORECAST THROUGH 00Z TAF PERIOD. EXPECTING PERIODS OF MID
LVL CLDNS (CIGS MAINLY 10-15KFT) TNGT W/ SCT-BKN CLDNS (MAINLY 10-12
KFT) EARLY TUE MRNG LWRG TO 5-6K FT TUE AFTN. NO PCPN IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW LEVELS TOO DRY BUT THERE IS A CHC FOR SHOWERS
MAINLY AT SBY BY TUESDAY AFTN (NOT IN TAF). LIGHT S WINDS BECOME W
NEAR 10 KNOTS TOWARD MIDDAY TUESDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

OUTLOOK...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DEEPENS AND
LINGERS OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE WILL BE A
CHC FOR SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS (ESPECIALLY ERN PORTIONS) TUE NIGHT
AND WED ENDING WED NIGHT. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY THURSDAY
BUT NO SIGNIFICANT IFR IS INDICATED. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
AWAY FROM THE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRY AND VFR CONDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT...ALLOWING THE WIND TO
REMAIN S/SW. EXPECT SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH WIND SPEEDS
AVERAGING UP TO 15-20 KT ACRS NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...AND
GENERALLY 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE COAST LATE TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY EVENTUAL SCA
CONDITIONS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SFC LOW
PRESSURE THEN DEEPENS OFF THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
STALL OFFSHORE THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. WITH FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FROM
THE NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM/SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210027
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
827 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOCATING
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FOR MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH OFFSHORE THRU THIS EVENING.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES/NORTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH A SFC COLD FRONT REACHING THE
SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS AROUND 12Z TUE. SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR AN
ISOLD SHOWER OVER OUR FAR NW ZONES...AND ALSO OVER THE NORTHERN
OBX...THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW OVERALL DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE TONIGHT (PW`S AOB 0.75")...SO WOULD BE HARD TO
GET MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN. OTW...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THRU TONIGHT WITH SKY CONDITIONS BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.
CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SW FLOW WILL BRING MILDER TEMPS THAN LAST
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 40S WEST TO LOW/MID 50S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLOW AMPLIFIES DURING THE SHORT TERM AS A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS
OVER ERN CANADA. ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVES SOUTH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/OH VALLEY TUES THANKS TO A ~100 KT JET STREAK DIVING SWD
FROM CANADA. AS A RESULT...UPPER LOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NE STATES LATE TUESDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL
PROGRESS SLOWLY EWD TUES NIGHT INTO WED...LOCATING OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST LATE WED. WITH THE UPR LOW PIVOTING ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TUE/TUE NIGHT...WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
DEVELOP ESPECIALLY NORTH/NE WHERE BEST UPWARD MOTION IS
ANTICIPATED. HAVE CHANCE (POPS 25-40%) ALONG AND NE OF A LINE FROM
LKU-OFP-MFV ON TUE...THEN BEST CHANCE (30-50%) MAINLY ALONG THE
VA COAST AND ONTO THE EASTERN SHORE TUE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...WILL
CARRY NO HIGHER THEN 20% POPS. HIGHS TUE IN THE UPPER 60S NW TO
MID 70S SE. LOWS TUE NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. MOSTLY
CLOUDY NORTH TO PARTLY CLOUDY SOUTH DURING THIE TIME.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND OFFSHORE WED.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAIRLY DRY ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS AS THE
TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION SWING OFFSHORE. WILL THEREFORE KEEP CHC POPS
LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG AND NE OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR WED...WITH
EMPHASIS ON THE NORTHERN NECK AND EASTERN SHORE (30-50% POPS).
COULD END UP BEING DRY OVER FAR SW ZONES. COOLER WED WITH HIGHS
ONLY 60-65.

THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE WED NIGHT INTO THU...LOCATING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 00Z FRIDAY. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWER CHANCES
BY THEN WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN SHORE (20%). DECREASING
CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE
LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. COOL AGAIN THU WITH HIGHS 60-65.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ERN US EARLY
NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE MID 60S
TO AROUND 70 FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S SUNDAY...AND POTENTIALLY 70-75 BY MONDAY. LOWS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR WX IS FORECAST THROUGH 00Z TAF PERIOD. EXPECTING PERIODS OF MID
LVL CLDNS (CIGS MAINLY 10-15KFT) TNGT W/ SCT-BKN CLDNS (MAINLY 10-12
KFT) EARLY TUE MRNG LWRG TO 5-6K FT TUE AFTN. NO PCPN IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW LEVELS TOO DRY BUT THERE IS A CHC FOR SHOWERS
MAINLY AT SBY BY TUESDAY AFTN (NOT IN TAF). LIGHT S WINDS BECOME W
NEAR 10 KNOTS TOWARD MIDDAY TUESDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

OUTLOOK...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DEEPENS AND
LINGERS OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE WILL BE A
CHC FOR SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS (ESPECIALLY ERN PORTIONS) TUE NIGHT
AND WED ENDING WED NIGHT. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY THURSDAY
BUT NO SIGNIFICANT IFR IS INDICATED. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
AWAY FROM THE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRY AND VFR CONDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT...ALLOWING THE WIND TO
REMAIN S/SW. EXPECT SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH WIND SPEEDS
AVERAGING UP TO 15-20 KT ACRS NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...AND
GENERALLY 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE COAST LATE TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY EVENTUAL SCA
CONDITIONS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SFC LOW
PRESSURE THEN DEEPENS OFF THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
STALL OFFSHORE THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. WITH FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FROM
THE NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM/SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210027
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
827 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOCATING
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FOR MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH OFFSHORE THRU THIS EVENING.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES/NORTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH A SFC COLD FRONT REACHING THE
SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS AROUND 12Z TUE. SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR AN
ISOLD SHOWER OVER OUR FAR NW ZONES...AND ALSO OVER THE NORTHERN
OBX...THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW OVERALL DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE TONIGHT (PW`S AOB 0.75")...SO WOULD BE HARD TO
GET MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN. OTW...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THRU TONIGHT WITH SKY CONDITIONS BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.
CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SW FLOW WILL BRING MILDER TEMPS THAN LAST
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 40S WEST TO LOW/MID 50S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLOW AMPLIFIES DURING THE SHORT TERM AS A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS
OVER ERN CANADA. ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVES SOUTH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/OH VALLEY TUES THANKS TO A ~100 KT JET STREAK DIVING SWD
FROM CANADA. AS A RESULT...UPPER LOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NE STATES LATE TUESDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL
PROGRESS SLOWLY EWD TUES NIGHT INTO WED...LOCATING OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST LATE WED. WITH THE UPR LOW PIVOTING ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TUE/TUE NIGHT...WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
DEVELOP ESPECIALLY NORTH/NE WHERE BEST UPWARD MOTION IS
ANTICIPATED. HAVE CHANCE (POPS 25-40%) ALONG AND NE OF A LINE FROM
LKU-OFP-MFV ON TUE...THEN BEST CHANCE (30-50%) MAINLY ALONG THE
VA COAST AND ONTO THE EASTERN SHORE TUE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...WILL
CARRY NO HIGHER THEN 20% POPS. HIGHS TUE IN THE UPPER 60S NW TO
MID 70S SE. LOWS TUE NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. MOSTLY
CLOUDY NORTH TO PARTLY CLOUDY SOUTH DURING THIE TIME.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND OFFSHORE WED.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAIRLY DRY ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS AS THE
TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION SWING OFFSHORE. WILL THEREFORE KEEP CHC POPS
LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG AND NE OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR WED...WITH
EMPHASIS ON THE NORTHERN NECK AND EASTERN SHORE (30-50% POPS).
COULD END UP BEING DRY OVER FAR SW ZONES. COOLER WED WITH HIGHS
ONLY 60-65.

THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE WED NIGHT INTO THU...LOCATING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 00Z FRIDAY. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWER CHANCES
BY THEN WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN SHORE (20%). DECREASING
CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE
LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. COOL AGAIN THU WITH HIGHS 60-65.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ERN US EARLY
NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE MID 60S
TO AROUND 70 FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S SUNDAY...AND POTENTIALLY 70-75 BY MONDAY. LOWS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR WX IS FORECAST THROUGH 00Z TAF PERIOD. EXPECTING PERIODS OF MID
LVL CLDNS (CIGS MAINLY 10-15KFT) TNGT W/ SCT-BKN CLDNS (MAINLY 10-12
KFT) EARLY TUE MRNG LWRG TO 5-6K FT TUE AFTN. NO PCPN IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW LEVELS TOO DRY BUT THERE IS A CHC FOR SHOWERS
MAINLY AT SBY BY TUESDAY AFTN (NOT IN TAF). LIGHT S WINDS BECOME W
NEAR 10 KNOTS TOWARD MIDDAY TUESDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

OUTLOOK...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DEEPENS AND
LINGERS OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE WILL BE A
CHC FOR SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS (ESPECIALLY ERN PORTIONS) TUE NIGHT
AND WED ENDING WED NIGHT. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY THURSDAY
BUT NO SIGNIFICANT IFR IS INDICATED. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
AWAY FROM THE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRY AND VFR CONDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT...ALLOWING THE WIND TO
REMAIN S/SW. EXPECT SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH WIND SPEEDS
AVERAGING UP TO 15-20 KT ACRS NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...AND
GENERALLY 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE COAST LATE TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY EVENTUAL SCA
CONDITIONS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SFC LOW
PRESSURE THEN DEEPENS OFF THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
STALL OFFSHORE THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. WITH FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FROM
THE NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM/SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ







000
FXUS61 KLWX 210026
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
826 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST NEAR THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE
END OF THE WORKWEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT.

AN AREA OF VORTICITY ADVECTION IS MOVING AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THIS EVENING. SHOWERS HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND BLUE RIDGE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD. THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO A DRY AIRMASS AND ONLY
HUNDREDTHS ARE EXPECTED IN PLACES THAT RECIEVE RAIN THIS EVENING.
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD TONIGHT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHLANDS. WESTERLY
FLOW AGAINST THE MTNS WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED LIFT AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY. FCST MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE 40S AND NEAR 50 IN THE
METROS.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES OVER HEAD. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES AND THEREFORE SOME INSTABILITY. ADDED ISOLATED TSTMS TO
AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LITTLE WIND FIELD
WILL LIMIT GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FCST MAX TEMPS ARE IN
THE 60S TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OCCLUDED AND STRENGTHEN NEAR
THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN DUE TO BAROCLINIC ENHANCEMENT AS
IT MOVES OVER RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN WATERS OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST DURING THIS TIME. POPS WILL REMAIN FOCUSED OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AS STORMS PRECIP SHIELDS SLOWLY
STAGGERS NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE LOW. WE SHOULD SEE A RESPECTABLE QPF
GRADIENT WITH THE AREAS ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE BAY RECEIVING
ONLY A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL WHILE LOCATIONS ON
THE THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WILL SEE SIGNIFICANTLY MORE DUE TO THEIR
PROXIMITY OT THE LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MAJOR FORECAST CHALLENGE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW IS THE
UPSLOPE PRECIP THREAT. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ALONG THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS WILL SEE LOW TEMPS THAT MAY DIP INTO THE MID 30S
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND GIVEN THE FETCH OF THE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER
THE GREAT LAKES UPSTREAM OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT THE OPTION TO
INCLUDE SNOW AS A PRECIP TYPE WAS TEMPTING. BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE
LAYER OF ABOVE-FREEZING AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WILL BE A BIT TOO
THICK FOR ANY SNOWFALL. THIS MAY CHANGE IN UPCOMING FORECASTS AS
CONFIDENCE IN LOW TEMPS INCREASES...BUT EVEN IF A FEW FLAKES DO
FALL NO ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL NOSE
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
OVERALL...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE BEAUTIFUL FALL DAYS WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND HIGHS IN THE MID-60S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT WORKWEEK AND OUR NEXT
THREAT FOR ADVERSE WEATHER SHOULD NOT PRESENT ITSELF UNTIL THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY. PERIODIC SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR POSSIBLE...BUT
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT THIS
TIME. LIGHT W WINDS TUESDAY.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OCCURRENCE OF AVIATION HAZARDS THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY CHANNELING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MD CHESAPEAKE BAY
SOUTH OF DRUM PT/TANGIER SOUND AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC UNTIL 2 AM.
WLY FLOW TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
LIGHT S WINDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT...TRENDING TOWARDS THE WEST
AND EVENTUALLY NW DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS JUST OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY ALSO BE NEEDED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AS BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS FILL IN BEHIND LOW PRESSURE
DEPARTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOMALIES BACK ON THE RISE...APPROACHING 1 FT TONIGHT UNDER
SOUTHERLY WINDS. FORECASTS FOR WASHINGTON CHANNEL...BALTIMORE AND
ANNAPOLIS SHOW LIKELIHOOD TO REACH ACTION STAGES IN THE NEXT TWO
HIGH TIDE CYCLES TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME FALL
SHORT OF MINOR INUNDATION.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...KS/CEB/HAS
MARINE...KS/CEB/HAS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HAS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 210026
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
826 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST NEAR THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE
END OF THE WORKWEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT.

AN AREA OF VORTICITY ADVECTION IS MOVING AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THIS EVENING. SHOWERS HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND BLUE RIDGE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD. THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO A DRY AIRMASS AND ONLY
HUNDREDTHS ARE EXPECTED IN PLACES THAT RECIEVE RAIN THIS EVENING.
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD TONIGHT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHLANDS. WESTERLY
FLOW AGAINST THE MTNS WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED LIFT AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY. FCST MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE 40S AND NEAR 50 IN THE
METROS.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES OVER HEAD. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES AND THEREFORE SOME INSTABILITY. ADDED ISOLATED TSTMS TO
AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LITTLE WIND FIELD
WILL LIMIT GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FCST MAX TEMPS ARE IN
THE 60S TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OCCLUDED AND STRENGTHEN NEAR
THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN DUE TO BAROCLINIC ENHANCEMENT AS
IT MOVES OVER RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN WATERS OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST DURING THIS TIME. POPS WILL REMAIN FOCUSED OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AS STORMS PRECIP SHIELDS SLOWLY
STAGGERS NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE LOW. WE SHOULD SEE A RESPECTABLE QPF
GRADIENT WITH THE AREAS ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE BAY RECEIVING
ONLY A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL WHILE LOCATIONS ON
THE THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WILL SEE SIGNIFICANTLY MORE DUE TO THEIR
PROXIMITY OT THE LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MAJOR FORECAST CHALLENGE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW IS THE
UPSLOPE PRECIP THREAT. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ALONG THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS WILL SEE LOW TEMPS THAT MAY DIP INTO THE MID 30S
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND GIVEN THE FETCH OF THE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER
THE GREAT LAKES UPSTREAM OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT THE OPTION TO
INCLUDE SNOW AS A PRECIP TYPE WAS TEMPTING. BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE
LAYER OF ABOVE-FREEZING AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WILL BE A BIT TOO
THICK FOR ANY SNOWFALL. THIS MAY CHANGE IN UPCOMING FORECASTS AS
CONFIDENCE IN LOW TEMPS INCREASES...BUT EVEN IF A FEW FLAKES DO
FALL NO ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL NOSE
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
OVERALL...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE BEAUTIFUL FALL DAYS WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND HIGHS IN THE MID-60S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT WORKWEEK AND OUR NEXT
THREAT FOR ADVERSE WEATHER SHOULD NOT PRESENT ITSELF UNTIL THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY. PERIODIC SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR POSSIBLE...BUT
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT THIS
TIME. LIGHT W WINDS TUESDAY.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OCCURRENCE OF AVIATION HAZARDS THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY CHANNELING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MD CHESAPEAKE BAY
SOUTH OF DRUM PT/TANGIER SOUND AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC UNTIL 2 AM.
WLY FLOW TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
LIGHT S WINDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT...TRENDING TOWARDS THE WEST
AND EVENTUALLY NW DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS JUST OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY ALSO BE NEEDED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AS BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS FILL IN BEHIND LOW PRESSURE
DEPARTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOMALIES BACK ON THE RISE...APPROACHING 1 FT TONIGHT UNDER
SOUTHERLY WINDS. FORECASTS FOR WASHINGTON CHANNEL...BALTIMORE AND
ANNAPOLIS SHOW LIKELIHOOD TO REACH ACTION STAGES IN THE NEXT TWO
HIGH TIDE CYCLES TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME FALL
SHORT OF MINOR INUNDATION.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...KS/CEB/HAS
MARINE...KS/CEB/HAS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HAS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 210026
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
826 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST NEAR THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE
END OF THE WORKWEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT.

AN AREA OF VORTICITY ADVECTION IS MOVING AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THIS EVENING. SHOWERS HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND BLUE RIDGE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD. THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO A DRY AIRMASS AND ONLY
HUNDREDTHS ARE EXPECTED IN PLACES THAT RECIEVE RAIN THIS EVENING.
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD TONIGHT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHLANDS. WESTERLY
FLOW AGAINST THE MTNS WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED LIFT AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY. FCST MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE 40S AND NEAR 50 IN THE
METROS.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES OVER HEAD. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES AND THEREFORE SOME INSTABILITY. ADDED ISOLATED TSTMS TO
AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LITTLE WIND FIELD
WILL LIMIT GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FCST MAX TEMPS ARE IN
THE 60S TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OCCLUDED AND STRENGTHEN NEAR
THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN DUE TO BAROCLINIC ENHANCEMENT AS
IT MOVES OVER RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN WATERS OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST DURING THIS TIME. POPS WILL REMAIN FOCUSED OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AS STORMS PRECIP SHIELDS SLOWLY
STAGGERS NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE LOW. WE SHOULD SEE A RESPECTABLE QPF
GRADIENT WITH THE AREAS ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE BAY RECEIVING
ONLY A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL WHILE LOCATIONS ON
THE THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WILL SEE SIGNIFICANTLY MORE DUE TO THEIR
PROXIMITY OT THE LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MAJOR FORECAST CHALLENGE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW IS THE
UPSLOPE PRECIP THREAT. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ALONG THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS WILL SEE LOW TEMPS THAT MAY DIP INTO THE MID 30S
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND GIVEN THE FETCH OF THE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER
THE GREAT LAKES UPSTREAM OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT THE OPTION TO
INCLUDE SNOW AS A PRECIP TYPE WAS TEMPTING. BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE
LAYER OF ABOVE-FREEZING AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WILL BE A BIT TOO
THICK FOR ANY SNOWFALL. THIS MAY CHANGE IN UPCOMING FORECASTS AS
CONFIDENCE IN LOW TEMPS INCREASES...BUT EVEN IF A FEW FLAKES DO
FALL NO ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL NOSE
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
OVERALL...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE BEAUTIFUL FALL DAYS WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND HIGHS IN THE MID-60S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT WORKWEEK AND OUR NEXT
THREAT FOR ADVERSE WEATHER SHOULD NOT PRESENT ITSELF UNTIL THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY. PERIODIC SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR POSSIBLE...BUT
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT THIS
TIME. LIGHT W WINDS TUESDAY.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OCCURRENCE OF AVIATION HAZARDS THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY CHANNELING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MD CHESAPEAKE BAY
SOUTH OF DRUM PT/TANGIER SOUND AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC UNTIL 2 AM.
WLY FLOW TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
LIGHT S WINDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT...TRENDING TOWARDS THE WEST
AND EVENTUALLY NW DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS JUST OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY ALSO BE NEEDED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AS BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS FILL IN BEHIND LOW PRESSURE
DEPARTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOMALIES BACK ON THE RISE...APPROACHING 1 FT TONIGHT UNDER
SOUTHERLY WINDS. FORECASTS FOR WASHINGTON CHANNEL...BALTIMORE AND
ANNAPOLIS SHOW LIKELIHOOD TO REACH ACTION STAGES IN THE NEXT TWO
HIGH TIDE CYCLES TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME FALL
SHORT OF MINOR INUNDATION.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...KS/CEB/HAS
MARINE...KS/CEB/HAS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HAS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 210026
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
826 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST NEAR THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE
END OF THE WORKWEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT.

AN AREA OF VORTICITY ADVECTION IS MOVING AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THIS EVENING. SHOWERS HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND BLUE RIDGE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD. THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO A DRY AIRMASS AND ONLY
HUNDREDTHS ARE EXPECTED IN PLACES THAT RECIEVE RAIN THIS EVENING.
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD TONIGHT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHLANDS. WESTERLY
FLOW AGAINST THE MTNS WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED LIFT AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY. FCST MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE 40S AND NEAR 50 IN THE
METROS.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES OVER HEAD. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES AND THEREFORE SOME INSTABILITY. ADDED ISOLATED TSTMS TO
AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LITTLE WIND FIELD
WILL LIMIT GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FCST MAX TEMPS ARE IN
THE 60S TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OCCLUDED AND STRENGTHEN NEAR
THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN DUE TO BAROCLINIC ENHANCEMENT AS
IT MOVES OVER RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN WATERS OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST DURING THIS TIME. POPS WILL REMAIN FOCUSED OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AS STORMS PRECIP SHIELDS SLOWLY
STAGGERS NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE LOW. WE SHOULD SEE A RESPECTABLE QPF
GRADIENT WITH THE AREAS ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE BAY RECEIVING
ONLY A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL WHILE LOCATIONS ON
THE THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WILL SEE SIGNIFICANTLY MORE DUE TO THEIR
PROXIMITY OT THE LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MAJOR FORECAST CHALLENGE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW IS THE
UPSLOPE PRECIP THREAT. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ALONG THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS WILL SEE LOW TEMPS THAT MAY DIP INTO THE MID 30S
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND GIVEN THE FETCH OF THE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER
THE GREAT LAKES UPSTREAM OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT THE OPTION TO
INCLUDE SNOW AS A PRECIP TYPE WAS TEMPTING. BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE
LAYER OF ABOVE-FREEZING AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WILL BE A BIT TOO
THICK FOR ANY SNOWFALL. THIS MAY CHANGE IN UPCOMING FORECASTS AS
CONFIDENCE IN LOW TEMPS INCREASES...BUT EVEN IF A FEW FLAKES DO
FALL NO ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL NOSE
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
OVERALL...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE BEAUTIFUL FALL DAYS WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND HIGHS IN THE MID-60S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT WORKWEEK AND OUR NEXT
THREAT FOR ADVERSE WEATHER SHOULD NOT PRESENT ITSELF UNTIL THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY. PERIODIC SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR POSSIBLE...BUT
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT THIS
TIME. LIGHT W WINDS TUESDAY.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OCCURRENCE OF AVIATION HAZARDS THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY CHANNELING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MD CHESAPEAKE BAY
SOUTH OF DRUM PT/TANGIER SOUND AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC UNTIL 2 AM.
WLY FLOW TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
LIGHT S WINDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT...TRENDING TOWARDS THE WEST
AND EVENTUALLY NW DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS JUST OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY ALSO BE NEEDED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AS BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS FILL IN BEHIND LOW PRESSURE
DEPARTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOMALIES BACK ON THE RISE...APPROACHING 1 FT TONIGHT UNDER
SOUTHERLY WINDS. FORECASTS FOR WASHINGTON CHANNEL...BALTIMORE AND
ANNAPOLIS SHOW LIKELIHOOD TO REACH ACTION STAGES IN THE NEXT TWO
HIGH TIDE CYCLES TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME FALL
SHORT OF MINOR INUNDATION.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...KS/CEB/HAS
MARINE...KS/CEB/HAS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HAS








000
FXUS61 KRNK 202333
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
733 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION OVERNIGHT...AND CROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY. FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY BETWEEN THE DEPARTING PARENT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OUR
DIRECTION...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT MONDAY...

AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WERE MOVING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY. AHEAD OF
IT...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WAS ADVECTING BANDS OF
SHOWERS TOWARD THE REGION. THE FIRST WAS ARRIVING CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO ITS
PROGRESS INTO THE AREA THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...AND WASH OUT
AFTER IT CROSSES THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS EVENING. THE
SECOND BAND WAS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM OHIO INTO INDIANA. IT TOO
WILL REACH THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING...AND ALSO WASH OUT EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE AROUND OR A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL BE NOTABLY MORE MILD COMPARED TO READINGS OF THIS
MORNING THANKS TO INCREASING DEW POINTS. ANTICIPATE A MIX OF MID TO
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY MORNING AROUND DAYBREAK...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. ANTICIPATE A
RESURGENCE OF UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN THE WEST...WITH A BIT MORE COVERAGE
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MIDDAY. A REINFORCING PIECE OF ENERGY WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS FEATURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO ENHANCE THE UPSLOPE COVERAGE. COVERAGE WILL BE
LIMITED OR LACKING ACROSS THE AREA NEAR SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA AND
NEIGHBORING NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THANKS TO DOWNSLOPE
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING IN THIS REGION. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...

FOCUS FOR MID WEEK WILL BE CLOSED LOW WHICH PARKS ITSELF OVER THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS FEATURE WILL
RESULT IN A MULTIDAY COOL PERIOD WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS AND
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS.  WITH THE LOW CENTERED TO OUR NORTH...THE
CLOUDIER CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR THE VIRGINIAS WITH DRIER AIR
RESULTING IN MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS...MAINLY IN THE FORM
OF SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...AND UPSLOPE
SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AT NIGHT. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
VA/WV HIGHLANDS...QPF LOOKS PRETTY SCANT. THE VA/NC HIGHLANDS MAY
RECEIVE UPWARDS OF A QUARTER INCH OF PRECIP TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH AND POSSIBLY NOTHING AT ALL.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER AND 850MB TEMPS HOVERING IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGIT
CENTIGRADE RANGE. THERE IS A POCKET OF NEAR 0C 850MB TEMPS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW THAT SETTLES DOWN OVER THE WESTERN PART
OF THE CWA...SO CAN`T RULE OUT A MIX OF -SN/RA AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE
3500 FEET...BUT NO ACCUMULATION CONCERNS ATTM DUE TO GROUND
TEMPERATURES BEING ABOVE FREEZING.  WE MAY NEED TO ENTERTAIN
FROST/FREEZE ADVISORIES LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT THIS APPEARS MARGINAL
PER LINGERING CLOUDINESS AND AT LEAST SOME MIXING FROM THE WIND.

USED A MODEL BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...MAX
TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK...AND MIN TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...

THE PRIMARY CLOSED LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION
FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW ONE FINAL SHOT OF COOL AIR WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON SATURDAY...BUT AFTER THAT...A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO BUILD EAST FROM THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DO A COUPLE OF
THINGS...ONE...SHUT DOWN THE COOL INTRUSIONS FROM THE NORTH...AND
TWO...CLOSE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM ANY MOISTURE...AT LEAST FOR A
FEW DAYS.  ALL THINGS CONSIDERED THIS SHOULD YIELD A DRY RELATIVELY
MILD START TO THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER.   TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY SHOULD FAVOR READINGS CLOSE TO NORMAL...WITH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL BY AT LEAST 5 DEGREES...POSSIBLY A
LITTLE MORE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT MONDAY...

FIRST UPPER LEVEL WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH
ZONE OF LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE
PIEDMONT. CIGS REMAIN MID LEVEL VFR AND PRECIP VERY LIGHT NOT TO
REDUCE VSBYS INTO MVFR RANGE EITHER...AND THESE WILL CONTINUE TO
LIGHTEN AND DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE INTO PIEDMONT APPROACHING
LYH...AND MAY NOT EVEN REACH DAN. BEHIND THIS...MORE WESTERLY
FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY BRING MVFR CIGS TO UPSLOPE LOCATIONS
INCLUDING BLF AND LWB AFTER 04 UTC TONIGHT...BUT LESS CONFIDENT
IN ANY SUB VFR CIGS ELSEWHERE. WITH VERY LIGHT RAIN AT
BLF...LWB...AND BCB...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT FOG LATE
TONIGHT...BUT KEEPING THIS MVFR EXCEPT FOR LWB WHERE LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING ALL THE WAY DOWN TO 1/4 MI. AM GOING WITH
TEMPO GROUP LIFR AT LWB BUT NOT ALL THE WAY DOWN TO 1/4.

COULD STILL BE BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT SHWRS LATE TONIGHT IN THE
WESTERN SLOPES WITH SECOND WEAK SHORT WAVE...BUT STRONGEST UPPER
WAVE WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK WITH BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHWRS AND LOWERING CIGS TO THE LOW END OF MVFR. CANNOT RULE OUT
BRIEF IFR IN SOME SHOWERS AT BLF AND LWB...WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN THESE CONDITIONS AT BCB. SHWRS NOT LIKELY TO REACH WEST OF
BLUE RIDGE AND IF THEY DO SHOULD STILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH VFR
CIGS. OTHERWISE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TUESDAY EXPECT GUSTY
WNW WINDS SLOWLY TURNING MORE NW BY LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY AND
INTO THE EVENING WITH SOME SHOWERS CONTINUING WESTERN SLOPES.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOW DOWN AND DEEPEN THROUGH MID WEEK
AND ONLY SLOWLY BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY THURSDAY. THE
MAIN IMPACT WITH BE A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GUSTY WIND AND
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THAT WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY THE PREFERRED
UPSLOPE REGION OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA INTO WED NIGHT OR EVEN
THURS MORNING. MVFR CLOUDS WILL THUS BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA TO LYH TO DAN
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW- LEVEL UPSLOPE
CLOUDS IN WEST WILL SLOWLY BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...FOR DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...MBS/SK



000
FXUS61 KRNK 202333
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
733 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION OVERNIGHT...AND CROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY. FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY BETWEEN THE DEPARTING PARENT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OUR
DIRECTION...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT MONDAY...

AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WERE MOVING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY. AHEAD OF
IT...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WAS ADVECTING BANDS OF
SHOWERS TOWARD THE REGION. THE FIRST WAS ARRIVING CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO ITS
PROGRESS INTO THE AREA THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...AND WASH OUT
AFTER IT CROSSES THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS EVENING. THE
SECOND BAND WAS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM OHIO INTO INDIANA. IT TOO
WILL REACH THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING...AND ALSO WASH OUT EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE AROUND OR A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL BE NOTABLY MORE MILD COMPARED TO READINGS OF THIS
MORNING THANKS TO INCREASING DEW POINTS. ANTICIPATE A MIX OF MID TO
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY MORNING AROUND DAYBREAK...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. ANTICIPATE A
RESURGENCE OF UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN THE WEST...WITH A BIT MORE COVERAGE
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MIDDAY. A REINFORCING PIECE OF ENERGY WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS FEATURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO ENHANCE THE UPSLOPE COVERAGE. COVERAGE WILL BE
LIMITED OR LACKING ACROSS THE AREA NEAR SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA AND
NEIGHBORING NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THANKS TO DOWNSLOPE
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING IN THIS REGION. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...

FOCUS FOR MID WEEK WILL BE CLOSED LOW WHICH PARKS ITSELF OVER THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS FEATURE WILL
RESULT IN A MULTIDAY COOL PERIOD WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS AND
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS.  WITH THE LOW CENTERED TO OUR NORTH...THE
CLOUDIER CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR THE VIRGINIAS WITH DRIER AIR
RESULTING IN MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS...MAINLY IN THE FORM
OF SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...AND UPSLOPE
SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AT NIGHT. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
VA/WV HIGHLANDS...QPF LOOKS PRETTY SCANT. THE VA/NC HIGHLANDS MAY
RECEIVE UPWARDS OF A QUARTER INCH OF PRECIP TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH AND POSSIBLY NOTHING AT ALL.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER AND 850MB TEMPS HOVERING IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGIT
CENTIGRADE RANGE. THERE IS A POCKET OF NEAR 0C 850MB TEMPS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW THAT SETTLES DOWN OVER THE WESTERN PART
OF THE CWA...SO CAN`T RULE OUT A MIX OF -SN/RA AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE
3500 FEET...BUT NO ACCUMULATION CONCERNS ATTM DUE TO GROUND
TEMPERATURES BEING ABOVE FREEZING.  WE MAY NEED TO ENTERTAIN
FROST/FREEZE ADVISORIES LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT THIS APPEARS MARGINAL
PER LINGERING CLOUDINESS AND AT LEAST SOME MIXING FROM THE WIND.

USED A MODEL BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...MAX
TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK...AND MIN TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...

THE PRIMARY CLOSED LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION
FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW ONE FINAL SHOT OF COOL AIR WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON SATURDAY...BUT AFTER THAT...A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO BUILD EAST FROM THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DO A COUPLE OF
THINGS...ONE...SHUT DOWN THE COOL INTRUSIONS FROM THE NORTH...AND
TWO...CLOSE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM ANY MOISTURE...AT LEAST FOR A
FEW DAYS.  ALL THINGS CONSIDERED THIS SHOULD YIELD A DRY RELATIVELY
MILD START TO THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER.   TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY SHOULD FAVOR READINGS CLOSE TO NORMAL...WITH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL BY AT LEAST 5 DEGREES...POSSIBLY A
LITTLE MORE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT MONDAY...

FIRST UPPER LEVEL WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH
ZONE OF LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE
PIEDMONT. CIGS REMAIN MID LEVEL VFR AND PRECIP VERY LIGHT NOT TO
REDUCE VSBYS INTO MVFR RANGE EITHER...AND THESE WILL CONTINUE TO
LIGHTEN AND DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE INTO PIEDMONT APPROACHING
LYH...AND MAY NOT EVEN REACH DAN. BEHIND THIS...MORE WESTERLY
FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY BRING MVFR CIGS TO UPSLOPE LOCATIONS
INCLUDING BLF AND LWB AFTER 04 UTC TONIGHT...BUT LESS CONFIDENT
IN ANY SUB VFR CIGS ELSEWHERE. WITH VERY LIGHT RAIN AT
BLF...LWB...AND BCB...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT FOG LATE
TONIGHT...BUT KEEPING THIS MVFR EXCEPT FOR LWB WHERE LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING ALL THE WAY DOWN TO 1/4 MI. AM GOING WITH
TEMPO GROUP LIFR AT LWB BUT NOT ALL THE WAY DOWN TO 1/4.

COULD STILL BE BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT SHWRS LATE TONIGHT IN THE
WESTERN SLOPES WITH SECOND WEAK SHORT WAVE...BUT STRONGEST UPPER
WAVE WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK WITH BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHWRS AND LOWERING CIGS TO THE LOW END OF MVFR. CANNOT RULE OUT
BRIEF IFR IN SOME SHOWERS AT BLF AND LWB...WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN THESE CONDITIONS AT BCB. SHWRS NOT LIKELY TO REACH WEST OF
BLUE RIDGE AND IF THEY DO SHOULD STILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH VFR
CIGS. OTHERWISE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TUESDAY EXPECT GUSTY
WNW WINDS SLOWLY TURNING MORE NW BY LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY AND
INTO THE EVENING WITH SOME SHOWERS CONTINUING WESTERN SLOPES.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOW DOWN AND DEEPEN THROUGH MID WEEK
AND ONLY SLOWLY BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY THURSDAY. THE
MAIN IMPACT WITH BE A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GUSTY WIND AND
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THAT WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY THE PREFERRED
UPSLOPE REGION OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA INTO WED NIGHT OR EVEN
THURS MORNING. MVFR CLOUDS WILL THUS BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA TO LYH TO DAN
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW- LEVEL UPSLOPE
CLOUDS IN WEST WILL SLOWLY BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...FOR DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...MBS/SK




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 202000
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
400 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOCATING
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FOR MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH OFFSHORE THRU THIS EVENING.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES/NORTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH A SFC COLD FRONT REACHING THE
SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS AROUND 12Z TUE. SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR AN
ISOLD SHOWER OVER OUR FAR NW ZONES...AND ALSO OVER THE NORTHERN
OBX...THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW OVERALL DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE TONIGHT (PW`S AOB 0.75")...SO WOULD BE HARD TO
GET MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN. OTW...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THRU TONIGHT WITH SKY CONDITIONS BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.
CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SW FLOW WILL BRING MILDER TEMPS THAN LAST
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 40S WEST TO LOW/MID 50S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLOW AMPLIFIES DURING THE SHORT TERM AS A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS
OVER ERN CANADA. ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVES SOUTH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/OH VALLEY TUES THANKS TO A ~100 KT JET STREAK DIVING SWD
FROM CANADA. AS A RESULT...UPPER LOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NE STATES LATE TUESDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL
PROGRESS SLOWLY EWD TUES NIGHT INTO WED...LOCATING OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST LATE WED. WITH THE UPR LOW PIVOTING ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TUE/TUE NIGHT...WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
DEVELOP ESPECIALLY NORTH/NE WHERE BEST UPWARD MOTION IS
ANTICIPATED. HAVE CHANCE (POPS 25-40%) ALONG AND NE OF A LINE FROM
LKU-OFP-MFV ON TUE...THEN BEST CHANCE (30-50%) MAINLY ALONG THE
VA COAST AND ONTO THE EASTERN SHORE TUE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...WILL
CARRY NO HIGHER THEN 20% POPS. HIGHS TUE IN THE UPPER 60S NW TO
MID 70S SE. LOWS TUE NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. MOSTLY
CLOUDY NORTH TO PARTLY CLOUDY SOUTH DURING THIE TIME.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND OFFSHORE WED.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAIRLY DRY ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS AS THE
TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION SWING OFFSHORE. WILL THEREFORE KEEP CHC POPS
LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG AND NE OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR WED...WITH
EMPHASIS ON THE NORTHERN NECK AND EASTERN SHORE (30-50% POPS).
COULD END UP BEING DRY OVER FAR SW ZONES. COOLER WED WITH HIGHS
ONLY 60-65.

THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE WED NIGHT INTO THU...LOCATING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 00Z FRIDAY. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWER CHANCES
BY THEN WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN SHORE (20%). DECREASING
CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE
LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. COOL AGAIN THU WITH HIGHS 60-65.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ERN US EARLY
NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE MID 60S
TO AROUND 70 FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S SUNDAY...AND POTENTIALLY 70-75 BY MONDAY. LOWS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR WX THROUGH TAF FCST PD. XPCG PDS OF MID LVL CLDNS (CIGS MNLY
10-15KFT) TNGT W/ SCT-BKN CLDNS (MNLY 5-10 KFT) TUE MRNG (LO LVLS
TOO DRY FOR PCPN). SSW WNDS 10-20KT INTO EARLY THIS EVE...THEN
DIMINISHING TNGT. WSW WNDS ON TUE AVGG 10-20 KT.

NEXT FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUE AFTN
THEN LINGERS OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING ALONG
WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS. WINDS FROM THE NW ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
GUSTY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT...ALLOWING THE WIND TO
REMAIN S/SW. EXPECT SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH WIND SPEEDS
AVERAGING UP TO 15-20 KT ACRS NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...AND
GENERALLY 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE COAST LATE TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY EVENTUAL SCA
CONDITIONS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SFC LOW
PRESSURE THEN DEEPENS OFF THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
STALL OFFSHORE THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. WITH FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FROM
THE NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...AJZ








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 202000
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
400 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOCATING
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FOR MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH OFFSHORE THRU THIS EVENING.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES/NORTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH A SFC COLD FRONT REACHING THE
SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS AROUND 12Z TUE. SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR AN
ISOLD SHOWER OVER OUR FAR NW ZONES...AND ALSO OVER THE NORTHERN
OBX...THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW OVERALL DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE TONIGHT (PW`S AOB 0.75")...SO WOULD BE HARD TO
GET MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN. OTW...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THRU TONIGHT WITH SKY CONDITIONS BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.
CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SW FLOW WILL BRING MILDER TEMPS THAN LAST
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 40S WEST TO LOW/MID 50S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLOW AMPLIFIES DURING THE SHORT TERM AS A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS
OVER ERN CANADA. ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVES SOUTH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/OH VALLEY TUES THANKS TO A ~100 KT JET STREAK DIVING SWD
FROM CANADA. AS A RESULT...UPPER LOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NE STATES LATE TUESDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL
PROGRESS SLOWLY EWD TUES NIGHT INTO WED...LOCATING OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST LATE WED. WITH THE UPR LOW PIVOTING ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TUE/TUE NIGHT...WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
DEVELOP ESPECIALLY NORTH/NE WHERE BEST UPWARD MOTION IS
ANTICIPATED. HAVE CHANCE (POPS 25-40%) ALONG AND NE OF A LINE FROM
LKU-OFP-MFV ON TUE...THEN BEST CHANCE (30-50%) MAINLY ALONG THE
VA COAST AND ONTO THE EASTERN SHORE TUE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...WILL
CARRY NO HIGHER THEN 20% POPS. HIGHS TUE IN THE UPPER 60S NW TO
MID 70S SE. LOWS TUE NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. MOSTLY
CLOUDY NORTH TO PARTLY CLOUDY SOUTH DURING THIE TIME.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND OFFSHORE WED.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAIRLY DRY ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS AS THE
TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION SWING OFFSHORE. WILL THEREFORE KEEP CHC POPS
LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG AND NE OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR WED...WITH
EMPHASIS ON THE NORTHERN NECK AND EASTERN SHORE (30-50% POPS).
COULD END UP BEING DRY OVER FAR SW ZONES. COOLER WED WITH HIGHS
ONLY 60-65.

THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE WED NIGHT INTO THU...LOCATING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 00Z FRIDAY. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWER CHANCES
BY THEN WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN SHORE (20%). DECREASING
CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE
LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. COOL AGAIN THU WITH HIGHS 60-65.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ERN US EARLY
NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE MID 60S
TO AROUND 70 FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S SUNDAY...AND POTENTIALLY 70-75 BY MONDAY. LOWS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR WX THROUGH TAF FCST PD. XPCG PDS OF MID LVL CLDNS (CIGS MNLY
10-15KFT) TNGT W/ SCT-BKN CLDNS (MNLY 5-10 KFT) TUE MRNG (LO LVLS
TOO DRY FOR PCPN). SSW WNDS 10-20KT INTO EARLY THIS EVE...THEN
DIMINISHING TNGT. WSW WNDS ON TUE AVGG 10-20 KT.

NEXT FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUE AFTN
THEN LINGERS OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING ALONG
WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS. WINDS FROM THE NW ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
GUSTY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT...ALLOWING THE WIND TO
REMAIN S/SW. EXPECT SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH WIND SPEEDS
AVERAGING UP TO 15-20 KT ACRS NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...AND
GENERALLY 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE COAST LATE TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY EVENTUAL SCA
CONDITIONS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SFC LOW
PRESSURE THEN DEEPENS OFF THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
STALL OFFSHORE THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. WITH FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FROM
THE NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...AJZ









000
FXUS61 KRNK 201917
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
317 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION OVERNIGHT...AND CROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY. FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY BETWEEN THE DEPARTING PARENT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OUR
DIRECTION...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT MONDAY...

AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WERE MOVING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY. AHEAD OF
IT...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WAS ADVECTING BANDS OF
SHOWERS TOWARD THE REGION. THE FIRST WAS ARRIVING CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO ITS
PROGRESS INTO THE AREA THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...AND WASH OUT
AFTER IT CROSSES THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS EVENING. THE
SECOND BAND WAS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM OHIO INTO INDIANA. IT TOO
WILL REACH THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING...AND ALSO WASH OUT EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE AROUND OR A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL BE NOTABLY MORE MILD COMPARED TO READINGS OF THIS
MORNING THANKS TO INCREASING DEW POINTS. ANTICIPATE A MIX OF MID TO
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY MORNING AROUND DAYBREAK...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. ANTICIPATE A
RESURGENCE OF UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN THE WEST...WITH A BIT MORE COVERAGE
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MIDDAY. A REINFORCING PIECE OF ENERGY WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS FEATURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO ENHANCE THE UPSLOPE COVERAGE. COVERAGE WILL BE
LIMITED OR LACKING ACROSS THE AREA NEAR SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA AND
NEIGHBORING NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THANKS TO DOWNSLOPE
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING IN THIS REGION. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...

FOCUS FOR MID WEEK WILL BE CLOSED LOW WHICH PARKS ITSELF OVER THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS FEATURE WILL
RESULT IN A MULTIDAY COOL PERIOD WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS AND
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS.  WITH THE LOW CENTERED TO OUR NORTH...THE
CLOUDIER CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR THE VIRGINIAS WITH DRIER AIR
RESULTING IN MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS...MAINLY IN THE FORM
OF SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...AND UPSLOPE
SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AT NIGHT. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
VA/WV HIGHLANDS...QPF LOOKS PRETTY SCANT. THE VA/NC HIGHLANDS MAY
RECEIVE UPWARDS OF A QUARTER INCH OF PRECIP TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH AND POSSIBLY NOTHING AT ALL.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER AND 850MB TEMPS HOVERING IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGIT
CENTIGRADE RANGE. THERE IS A POCKET OF NEAR 0C 850MB TEMPS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW THAT SETTLES DOWN OVER THE WESTERN PART
OF THE CWA...SO CAN`T RULE OUT A MIX OF -SN/RA AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE
3500 FEET...BUT NO ACCUMULATION CONCERNS ATTM DUE TO GROUND
TEMPERATURES BEING ABOVE FREEZING.  WE MAY NEED TO ENTERTAIN
FROST/FREEZE ADVISORIES LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT THIS APPEARS MARGINAL
PER LINGERING CLOUDINESS AND AT LEAST SOME MIXING FROM THE WIND.

USED A MODEL BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...MAX
TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK...AND MIN TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...

THE PRIMARY CLOSED LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION
FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW ONE FINAL SHOT OF COOL AIR WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON SATURDAY...BUT AFTER THAT...A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO BUILD EAST FROM THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DO A COUPLE OF
THINGS...ONE...SHUT DOWN THE COOL INTRUSIONS FROM THE NORTH...AND
TWO...CLOSE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM ANY MOISTURE...AT LEAST FOR A
FEW DAYS.  ALL THINGS CONSIDERED THIS SHOULD YIELD A DRY RELATIVELY
MILD START TO THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER.   TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY SHOULD FAVOR READINGS CLOSE TO NORMAL...WITH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL BY AT LEAST 5 DEGREES...POSSIBLY A
LITTLE MORE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT MONDAY...

TAF PERIOD WILL START OFF GOOD ENOUGH WITH VFR FOR ALL SITES.
HOWEVER...RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF PCPN HEADING IN FROM THE WEST
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER
TROF MOVING INTO THE ERN US. SITES MOST AFFECTED BY THE PCPN
WILL BE FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST. UPSTREAM LOCATIONS ALSO DO
NOT SHOW VERY LOW CIGS WITH THIS PCPN. WILL TIME THE BAND OF
PCPN WEST TO EAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND KEEP CIGS VFR WITH A
TEMPO TO MVFR FOR VSBY WITH SHOWERS FROM THE RIDGE WEST.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LAGS A BIT SO CIGS LOOK TO STAY UP THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT. FLOW IS A BIT LAZY IN SWINGING AROUND TO A GOOD
NWLY UPSLOPE DIRECTION AND THIS LOOKS TO PREVENT KBLF FROM HAVING
A SOLID IFR CIG SET IN. SHOULD BE ENOUGH CLOUDS AND ENOUGH OF A
LIGHT WIND TO KEEP THINGS MIXED AND PREVENT SIGNIFICANT OBVIS
FROM SETTING UP. ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING
THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BUT THE BEST SHOT LOOKS TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WHEN DIURNAL HEATING AND
A BETTER NW UPSLOPE FETCH WILL HELP GET SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS
GOING WEST OF THE RIDGE.

WINDS MAY BE A BIT GUSTY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THEN AGAIN VERY
LATE IN THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND
DEEPEN INTO A NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE SLOW MOVEMENT NORTHEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR OUR REGION...THE MAIN IMPACT WITH BE A
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GUSTY WIND AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THAT
WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGION OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA. MVFR CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA TO LYH TO DAN
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE
CLOUDS IN WEST WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...FOR DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...MBS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 201827
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
227 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST INTO
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER EASTERN VA/NC THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE
AND UPPER LOW PRESSURE HAS MOVED INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...WITH A TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN OHIO
VALLEY. BOTH AN UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME LIGHT RETURNS HAVE MOVED INTO
THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...AND ISOLATED RAIN HAS BEEN NOTED ON
SURFACE OBS OVER ERN WV. WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS AND
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 10-15 DEGREES...RAIN WILL HAVE
DIFFICULTY MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. FCST CALLS FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS INITIALLY...SPREADING EWD INTO
THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE I-95 CORRIDOR
BY THIS EVENING. ANY RAIN SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WITH
LIKELY JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH ACCUMULATION FOR THOSE
AREAS THAT DO SEE RAIN.

IN TERMS OF TEMPS AND WINDS...HIGHS LATE THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY IN
THE 60S UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH SOME GUSTS TO 2O MPH. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT TONIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 50 ALONG AND EAST OF
I-95...AND IN THE 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY. AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP
FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO PA AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WV/MD/VA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH
SOME INSTABILITY AND PERIODS OF VORTICITY ADVECTION...POTENTIAL
FOR SCATTERED RAIN/SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE.

TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS
PRIMARILY IN THE 50S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 40S AGAIN...AND
AROUND 50 IN URBAN AREAS AND BY CHESAPEAKE BAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OCCLUDED AND STRENGTHEN NEAR
THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN DUE TO BAROCLINIC ENHANCEMENT AS
IT MOVES OVER RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN WATERS OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST DURING THIS TIME. POPS WILL REMAIN FOCUSED OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AS STORMS PRECIP SHIELDS SLOWLY
STAGGERS NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE LOW. WE SHOULD SEE A RESPECTABLE QPF
GRADIENT WITH THE AREAS ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE BAY RECEIVING
ONLY A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL WHILE LOCATIONS ON
THE THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WILL SEE SIGNIFICANTLY MORE DUE TO THEIR
PROXIMITY OT THE LOW.

THE MAJOR FORECAST CHALLENGE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW IS THE
UPSLOPE PRECIP THREAT. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ALONG THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS WILL SEE LOW TEMPS THAT MAY DIP INTO THE MID 30S WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND GIVEN THE FETCH OF THE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES UPSTREAM OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT THE OPTION TO INCLUDE SNOW AS
A PRECIP TYPE WAS TEMPTING. BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE LAYER OF
ABOVE-FREEZING AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WILL BE A BIT TOO THICK FOR ANY
SNOWFALL. THIS MAY CHANGE IN UPCOMING FORECASTS AS CONFIDENCE IN LOW
TEMPS INCREASES...BUT EVEN IF A FEW FLAKES DO FALL NO ACCUMULATION
WILL OCCUR.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL NOSE
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
OVERALL...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE BEAUTIFUL FALL DAYS WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND HIGHS IN THE MID-60S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT WORKWEEK AND OUR NEXT
THREAT FOR ADVERSE WEATHER SHOULD NOT PRESENT ITSELF UNTIL THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONTINUES THROUGH TODAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH RETURN
SLY/SWLY FLOW GUSTING UP TO 18 KT THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TUESDAY. PERIODIC SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR POSSIBLE...BUT CONFIDENCE
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT THIS TIME.
LIGHT W WINDS TUESDAY.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OCCURRENCE OF AVIATION HAZARDS THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA IN EFFECT FOR GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. GUSTS OVER MOST ZONES
WILL DECREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SCA EXPIRES
AT 8 PM FOR MOST ZONES...EXCEPT FOR THE MD CHES BAY SOUTH OF POOLES
ISLAND AND THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC WHERE SOUTHERLY CHANNELING IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL 2 AM. WLY FLOW TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. LIGHT S WINDS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT...TRENDING TOWARDS THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY NW DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS JUST OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY ALSO BE NEEDED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AS BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS FILL IN BEHIND LOW PRESSURE
DEPARTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.


&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOMALIES BACK ON THE RISE...APPROACHING 1 FT LATE THIS AFTERNOON
UNDER SOUTHERLY WINDS. FORECASTS FOR WASHINGTON
CHANNEL...BALTIMORE AND ANNAPOLIS SHOW LIKELIHOOD TO REACH ACTION
STAGES IN THE NEXT TWO HIGH TIDE CYCLES LATE TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME FALL SHORT OF MINOR INUNDATION.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>533-535-536-538>542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KCS
NEAR TERM...KCS
SHORT TERM...KCS
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...KCS/CEB
MARINE...KCS/CEB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KCS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 201827
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
227 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST INTO
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER EASTERN VA/NC THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE
AND UPPER LOW PRESSURE HAS MOVED INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...WITH A TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN OHIO
VALLEY. BOTH AN UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME LIGHT RETURNS HAVE MOVED INTO
THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...AND ISOLATED RAIN HAS BEEN NOTED ON
SURFACE OBS OVER ERN WV. WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS AND
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 10-15 DEGREES...RAIN WILL HAVE
DIFFICULTY MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. FCST CALLS FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS INITIALLY...SPREADING EWD INTO
THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE I-95 CORRIDOR
BY THIS EVENING. ANY RAIN SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WITH
LIKELY JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH ACCUMULATION FOR THOSE
AREAS THAT DO SEE RAIN.

IN TERMS OF TEMPS AND WINDS...HIGHS LATE THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY IN
THE 60S UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH SOME GUSTS TO 2O MPH. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT TONIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 50 ALONG AND EAST OF
I-95...AND IN THE 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY. AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP
FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO PA AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WV/MD/VA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH
SOME INSTABILITY AND PERIODS OF VORTICITY ADVECTION...POTENTIAL
FOR SCATTERED RAIN/SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE.

TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS
PRIMARILY IN THE 50S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 40S AGAIN...AND
AROUND 50 IN URBAN AREAS AND BY CHESAPEAKE BAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OCCLUDED AND STRENGTHEN NEAR
THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN DUE TO BAROCLINIC ENHANCEMENT AS
IT MOVES OVER RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN WATERS OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST DURING THIS TIME. POPS WILL REMAIN FOCUSED OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AS STORMS PRECIP SHIELDS SLOWLY
STAGGERS NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE LOW. WE SHOULD SEE A RESPECTABLE QPF
GRADIENT WITH THE AREAS ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE BAY RECEIVING
ONLY A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL WHILE LOCATIONS ON
THE THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WILL SEE SIGNIFICANTLY MORE DUE TO THEIR
PROXIMITY OT THE LOW.

THE MAJOR FORECAST CHALLENGE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW IS THE
UPSLOPE PRECIP THREAT. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ALONG THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS WILL SEE LOW TEMPS THAT MAY DIP INTO THE MID 30S WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND GIVEN THE FETCH OF THE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES UPSTREAM OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT THE OPTION TO INCLUDE SNOW AS
A PRECIP TYPE WAS TEMPTING. BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE LAYER OF
ABOVE-FREEZING AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WILL BE A BIT TOO THICK FOR ANY
SNOWFALL. THIS MAY CHANGE IN UPCOMING FORECASTS AS CONFIDENCE IN LOW
TEMPS INCREASES...BUT EVEN IF A FEW FLAKES DO FALL NO ACCUMULATION
WILL OCCUR.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL NOSE
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
OVERALL...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE BEAUTIFUL FALL DAYS WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND HIGHS IN THE MID-60S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT WORKWEEK AND OUR NEXT
THREAT FOR ADVERSE WEATHER SHOULD NOT PRESENT ITSELF UNTIL THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONTINUES THROUGH TODAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH RETURN
SLY/SWLY FLOW GUSTING UP TO 18 KT THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TUESDAY. PERIODIC SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR POSSIBLE...BUT CONFIDENCE
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT THIS TIME.
LIGHT W WINDS TUESDAY.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OCCURRENCE OF AVIATION HAZARDS THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA IN EFFECT FOR GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. GUSTS OVER MOST ZONES
WILL DECREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SCA EXPIRES
AT 8 PM FOR MOST ZONES...EXCEPT FOR THE MD CHES BAY SOUTH OF POOLES
ISLAND AND THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC WHERE SOUTHERLY CHANNELING IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL 2 AM. WLY FLOW TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. LIGHT S WINDS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT...TRENDING TOWARDS THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY NW DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS JUST OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY ALSO BE NEEDED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AS BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS FILL IN BEHIND LOW PRESSURE
DEPARTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.


&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOMALIES BACK ON THE RISE...APPROACHING 1 FT LATE THIS AFTERNOON
UNDER SOUTHERLY WINDS. FORECASTS FOR WASHINGTON
CHANNEL...BALTIMORE AND ANNAPOLIS SHOW LIKELIHOOD TO REACH ACTION
STAGES IN THE NEXT TWO HIGH TIDE CYCLES LATE TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME FALL SHORT OF MINOR INUNDATION.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>533-535-536-538>542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KCS
NEAR TERM...KCS
SHORT TERM...KCS
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...KCS/CEB
MARINE...KCS/CEB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KCS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 201827
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
227 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST INTO
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER EASTERN VA/NC THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE
AND UPPER LOW PRESSURE HAS MOVED INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...WITH A TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN OHIO
VALLEY. BOTH AN UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME LIGHT RETURNS HAVE MOVED INTO
THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...AND ISOLATED RAIN HAS BEEN NOTED ON
SURFACE OBS OVER ERN WV. WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS AND
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 10-15 DEGREES...RAIN WILL HAVE
DIFFICULTY MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. FCST CALLS FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS INITIALLY...SPREADING EWD INTO
THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE I-95 CORRIDOR
BY THIS EVENING. ANY RAIN SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WITH
LIKELY JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH ACCUMULATION FOR THOSE
AREAS THAT DO SEE RAIN.

IN TERMS OF TEMPS AND WINDS...HIGHS LATE THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY IN
THE 60S UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH SOME GUSTS TO 2O MPH. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT TONIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 50 ALONG AND EAST OF
I-95...AND IN THE 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY. AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP
FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO PA AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WV/MD/VA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH
SOME INSTABILITY AND PERIODS OF VORTICITY ADVECTION...POTENTIAL
FOR SCATTERED RAIN/SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE.

TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS
PRIMARILY IN THE 50S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 40S AGAIN...AND
AROUND 50 IN URBAN AREAS AND BY CHESAPEAKE BAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OCCLUDED AND STRENGTHEN NEAR
THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN DUE TO BAROCLINIC ENHANCEMENT AS
IT MOVES OVER RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN WATERS OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST DURING THIS TIME. POPS WILL REMAIN FOCUSED OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AS STORMS PRECIP SHIELDS SLOWLY
STAGGERS NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE LOW. WE SHOULD SEE A RESPECTABLE QPF
GRADIENT WITH THE AREAS ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE BAY RECEIVING
ONLY A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL WHILE LOCATIONS ON
THE THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WILL SEE SIGNIFICANTLY MORE DUE TO THEIR
PROXIMITY OT THE LOW.

THE MAJOR FORECAST CHALLENGE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW IS THE
UPSLOPE PRECIP THREAT. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ALONG THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS WILL SEE LOW TEMPS THAT MAY DIP INTO THE MID 30S WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND GIVEN THE FETCH OF THE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES UPSTREAM OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT THE OPTION TO INCLUDE SNOW AS
A PRECIP TYPE WAS TEMPTING. BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE LAYER OF
ABOVE-FREEZING AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WILL BE A BIT TOO THICK FOR ANY
SNOWFALL. THIS MAY CHANGE IN UPCOMING FORECASTS AS CONFIDENCE IN LOW
TEMPS INCREASES...BUT EVEN IF A FEW FLAKES DO FALL NO ACCUMULATION
WILL OCCUR.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL NOSE
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
OVERALL...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE BEAUTIFUL FALL DAYS WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND HIGHS IN THE MID-60S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT WORKWEEK AND OUR NEXT
THREAT FOR ADVERSE WEATHER SHOULD NOT PRESENT ITSELF UNTIL THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONTINUES THROUGH TODAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH RETURN
SLY/SWLY FLOW GUSTING UP TO 18 KT THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TUESDAY. PERIODIC SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR POSSIBLE...BUT CONFIDENCE
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT THIS TIME.
LIGHT W WINDS TUESDAY.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OCCURRENCE OF AVIATION HAZARDS THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA IN EFFECT FOR GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. GUSTS OVER MOST ZONES
WILL DECREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SCA EXPIRES
AT 8 PM FOR MOST ZONES...EXCEPT FOR THE MD CHES BAY SOUTH OF POOLES
ISLAND AND THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC WHERE SOUTHERLY CHANNELING IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL 2 AM. WLY FLOW TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. LIGHT S WINDS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT...TRENDING TOWARDS THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY NW DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS JUST OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY ALSO BE NEEDED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AS BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS FILL IN BEHIND LOW PRESSURE
DEPARTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.


&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOMALIES BACK ON THE RISE...APPROACHING 1 FT LATE THIS AFTERNOON
UNDER SOUTHERLY WINDS. FORECASTS FOR WASHINGTON
CHANNEL...BALTIMORE AND ANNAPOLIS SHOW LIKELIHOOD TO REACH ACTION
STAGES IN THE NEXT TWO HIGH TIDE CYCLES LATE TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME FALL SHORT OF MINOR INUNDATION.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>533-535-536-538>542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KCS
NEAR TERM...KCS
SHORT TERM...KCS
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...KCS/CEB
MARINE...KCS/CEB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KCS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 201827
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
227 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST INTO
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER EASTERN VA/NC THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE
AND UPPER LOW PRESSURE HAS MOVED INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...WITH A TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN OHIO
VALLEY. BOTH AN UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME LIGHT RETURNS HAVE MOVED INTO
THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...AND ISOLATED RAIN HAS BEEN NOTED ON
SURFACE OBS OVER ERN WV. WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS AND
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 10-15 DEGREES...RAIN WILL HAVE
DIFFICULTY MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. FCST CALLS FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS INITIALLY...SPREADING EWD INTO
THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE I-95 CORRIDOR
BY THIS EVENING. ANY RAIN SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WITH
LIKELY JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH ACCUMULATION FOR THOSE
AREAS THAT DO SEE RAIN.

IN TERMS OF TEMPS AND WINDS...HIGHS LATE THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY IN
THE 60S UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH SOME GUSTS TO 2O MPH. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT TONIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 50 ALONG AND EAST OF
I-95...AND IN THE 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY. AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP
FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO PA AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WV/MD/VA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH
SOME INSTABILITY AND PERIODS OF VORTICITY ADVECTION...POTENTIAL
FOR SCATTERED RAIN/SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE.

TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS
PRIMARILY IN THE 50S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 40S AGAIN...AND
AROUND 50 IN URBAN AREAS AND BY CHESAPEAKE BAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OCCLUDED AND STRENGTHEN NEAR
THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN DUE TO BAROCLINIC ENHANCEMENT AS
IT MOVES OVER RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN WATERS OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST DURING THIS TIME. POPS WILL REMAIN FOCUSED OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AS STORMS PRECIP SHIELDS SLOWLY
STAGGERS NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE LOW. WE SHOULD SEE A RESPECTABLE QPF
GRADIENT WITH THE AREAS ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE BAY RECEIVING
ONLY A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL WHILE LOCATIONS ON
THE THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WILL SEE SIGNIFICANTLY MORE DUE TO THEIR
PROXIMITY OT THE LOW.

THE MAJOR FORECAST CHALLENGE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW IS THE
UPSLOPE PRECIP THREAT. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ALONG THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS WILL SEE LOW TEMPS THAT MAY DIP INTO THE MID 30S WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND GIVEN THE FETCH OF THE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES UPSTREAM OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT THE OPTION TO INCLUDE SNOW AS
A PRECIP TYPE WAS TEMPTING. BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE LAYER OF
ABOVE-FREEZING AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WILL BE A BIT TOO THICK FOR ANY
SNOWFALL. THIS MAY CHANGE IN UPCOMING FORECASTS AS CONFIDENCE IN LOW
TEMPS INCREASES...BUT EVEN IF A FEW FLAKES DO FALL NO ACCUMULATION
WILL OCCUR.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL NOSE
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
OVERALL...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE BEAUTIFUL FALL DAYS WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND HIGHS IN THE MID-60S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT WORKWEEK AND OUR NEXT
THREAT FOR ADVERSE WEATHER SHOULD NOT PRESENT ITSELF UNTIL THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONTINUES THROUGH TODAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH RETURN
SLY/SWLY FLOW GUSTING UP TO 18 KT THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TUESDAY. PERIODIC SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR POSSIBLE...BUT CONFIDENCE
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT THIS TIME.
LIGHT W WINDS TUESDAY.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OCCURRENCE OF AVIATION HAZARDS THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA IN EFFECT FOR GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. GUSTS OVER MOST ZONES
WILL DECREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SCA EXPIRES
AT 8 PM FOR MOST ZONES...EXCEPT FOR THE MD CHES BAY SOUTH OF POOLES
ISLAND AND THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC WHERE SOUTHERLY CHANNELING IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL 2 AM. WLY FLOW TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. LIGHT S WINDS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT...TRENDING TOWARDS THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY NW DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS JUST OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY ALSO BE NEEDED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AS BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS FILL IN BEHIND LOW PRESSURE
DEPARTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.


&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOMALIES BACK ON THE RISE...APPROACHING 1 FT LATE THIS AFTERNOON
UNDER SOUTHERLY WINDS. FORECASTS FOR WASHINGTON
CHANNEL...BALTIMORE AND ANNAPOLIS SHOW LIKELIHOOD TO REACH ACTION
STAGES IN THE NEXT TWO HIGH TIDE CYCLES LATE TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME FALL SHORT OF MINOR INUNDATION.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>533-535-536-538>542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KCS
NEAR TERM...KCS
SHORT TERM...KCS
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...KCS/CEB
MARINE...KCS/CEB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KCS








000
FXUS61 KRNK 201740
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
140 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA TODAY AND
CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AND THEN STALL AND
TRANSITION INTO AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. FOR OUR REGION THIS SERIES OF EVENTS WILL
RESULT IN INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 135 PM EDT MONDAY...

HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THAT IMPACT THE
FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. FIRST...PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE REGION IS ALLOWING THE
TEMPERATURE TO REACH TO WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES ALREADY. CLOUDS ARE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...BUT
THEY WILL NOT ARRIVE BEFORE THE IMPACT OF THE SUNSHINE HELPS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB AT LEAST ANOTHER 3 TO 5 DEGREES. AS SUCH...HAVE
INCREASED FORECAST HIGHS BY ROUGHLY THIS MUCH ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION. SECONDLY...THE APPROACHING LIGHT PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY
IN SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA IS ON TRACK TO ENTER THE REGION AS
CURRENTLY FORECAST. HOWEVER...BOTH THE HRRR AND RNK WRK ARW
SOLUTIONS...AND CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS...SUGGEST A BIT MORE
OF A BREAK BETWEEN THIS FIRST WAVE...AND THE SECOND ONE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THIS EVENING. AS SUCH...HAVE ATTEMPTED TO
DEPICT THIS PATTERN WITHIN THE HOURLY NDFD POP AND WEATHER GRIDS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANCES AT THIS TIME.

AS OF 1045 AM EDT MONDAY...

ALL FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS HAVE EXPIRED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY IS SHOWING A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...UPSTREAM RADARS SHOW A BAND OF PCPN
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER TROF MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN US. MESO MODELS
SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD GRASP OF THE SITUATION AND BASED ON
THIS...WILL BUMP TIMING OF POPS UP A COUPLE OF HOURS TO REFLECT
EXPECTED TRENDS. OTHER PARAMETERS ARE ON TRACK WITH CURRENT GRID
SET SO WILL FRESHEN WITH CURRENT DATA AND MAKE ONLY MINOR TREND
ADJUSTMENTS.

.PREVIOUS AFD...

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE QUICKLY MELTING AWAY ANY FROST AFTER
SUNRISE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE AROUND NOON...AND
BE NEAR 10 MPH AT MOST LOCATIONS BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE INTO THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
LEANED HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON CLOSE TO THE ADJMETBC
WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 50S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE
UPPER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ALONG THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT. THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE FOR WARMER OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH A FEW OF THE HIGHER RIDGES MAY REMAIN IN THE
LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

FOCUS THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON A SLOW MOVING
CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...MEANDERING TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION WED-THU. AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF MODEL RUNS TAKING
THE CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
HAVE TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH ONCE AGAIN...BUT REMAINING FAR ENOUGH
EAST THAT IT WILL STILL LEAVE THE CWA ON THE DRIER SOUTHWEST SIDE
OF THE SYSTEM. THE PRIMARY...LEADING WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL TRACK FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT...THEN TUE INTO EARLY WED...THE UPPER LOW WILL DIVE TO ITS
SOUTHERN MOST POSITION...TOWARD EAST CENTRAL VA. IN SO DOING...THE
NEXT LOBE OF PVA WILL WILL TRACK FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION AND RESULT IN A SLIGHT UPTICK IN RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE.
OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC
FLOW...ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...SCT -SHRA...MAINLY MOUNTAINS AND
AREAS NORTH OF U.S. 460. THE BEST OVERALL COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD COME WITH THIS
AFOREMENTIONED LOBE OF PVA AS THE UPPER LOW ROTATES TO A POSITION
JUST OFF THE DELMARVA BY WED EVENING. TOTAL QPF THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT 1/3 INCH NORTHERN GREENBRIER COUNTY TO TRACE
AMOUNTS AT BEST ACROSS MOST OF THE NC AND VA PIEDMONT COUNTIES.
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL SEE LESS THAN 1/10 INCH OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT. SLOW IMPROVEMENT CAN BE
EXPECTED THU AS THE UPPER LOW ROTATES BACK TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND...ALLOWING DRIER AIR FROM THE MIDWEST TO BEGIN TO SPREAD
INTO WESTERN AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER AND 850MB TEMPS HOVERING IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGIT
CENTIGRADE RANGE. THERE IS A POCKET OF NEAR 0C 850MB TEMPS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW THAT SETTLES DOWN OVER THE WESTERN PART
OF THE CWA EARLY THU...BUT THE CHANCE OF PCPN AT THAT TIME IN
THAT REGION IS NEAR ZERO...SO NO CONCERNS WITH WINTER
PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT...EVEN AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
WE MAY NEED TO ENTERTAIN FROST/FREEZE ADVISORIES LATE IN THE WEEK
ONCE AGAIN...BUT AGAIN APPEARS TO BE A MARGINAL SITUATION.

USED A MODEL BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...WITH MIN TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT MONDAY...

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION FRI-
SAT AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. INTO THE
EASTERN U.S. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL EFFECTIVELY SHUT OFF ALL
GULF MOISTURE FROM THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS WELL AS LOCKING
ANY REALLY COLD AIR WELL NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. A
WEAK...DRY UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE
REGION FRI-SAT...WHICH AT THIS POINT APPEARS TO DO LITTLE MORE
THAN BRING A FEW MID/HIGH CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL THEN DOMINATE FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR A CHANGE ALONG WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S WEST AND 70S
EAST. SHOULD BE A BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND FOR THE ENTIRE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT MONDAY...

TAF PERIOD WILL START OFF GOOD ENOUGH WITH VFR FOR ALL SITES.
HOWEVER...RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF PCPN HEADING IN FROM THE WEST
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER
TROF MOVING INTO THE ERN US. SITES MOST AFFECTED BY THE PCPN
WILL BE FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST. UPSTREAM LOCATIONS ALSO DO
NOT SHOW VERY LOW CIGS WITH THIS PCPN. WILL TIME THE BAND OF
PCPN WEST TO EAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND KEEP CIGS VFR WITH A
TEMPO TO MVFR FOR VSBY WITH SHOWERS FROM THE RIDGE WEST.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LAGS A BIT SO CIGS LOOK TO STAY UP THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT. FLOW IS A BIT LAZY IN SWINGING AROUND TO A GOOD
NWLY UPSLOPE DIRECTION AND THIS LOOKS TO PREVENT KBLF FROM HAVING
A SOLID IFR CIG SET IN. SHOULD BE ENOUGH CLOUDS AND ENOUGH OF A
LIGHT WIND TO KEEP THINGS MIXED AND PREVENT SIGNIFICANT OBVIS
FROM SETTING UP. ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING
THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BUT THE BEST SHOT LOOKS TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WHEN DIURNAL HEATING AND
A BETTER NW UPSLOPE FETCH WILL HELP GET SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS
GOING WEST OF THE RIDGE.

WINDS MAY BE A BIT GUSTY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THEN AGAIN VERY
LATE IN THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND
DEEPEN INTO A NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE SLOW MOVEMENT NORTHEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR OUR REGION...THE MAIN IMPACT WITH BE A
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GUSTY WIND AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THAT
WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGION OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA. MVFR CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA TO LYH TO DAN
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE
CLOUDS IN WEST WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...FOR DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...DS/KK/MBS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...NF/RAB
AVIATION...MBS



000
FXUS61 KLWX 201527
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1127 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL
ENTER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT...PERSISTING OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
THE END OF THE WORKWEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER EASTERN VA/NC LATE THIS MORNING. CIRRUS
DECK HAS MOVED INTO MOST OF THE CWA...AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE TODAY WITH SLY/SWLY FLOW
GUSTING UP TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. 925MB TEMPS AROUND 12C...MAX
TEMPS MID TO UPR 60S.

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH TLOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH
WIDELY SCATTERED AND LIGHT SHOWERS AHEAD PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW 50S ALONG AND
EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH MAINLY WLY FLOW. THE DOWNSLOPE
WILL COUNTERACT THE HEIGHT FALLS. THEREFORE...WENT WITH SCATTERED
COVERAGE FOR POPS THROUGH THE DAY. MAX TEMPS LOWER THAN MONDAY NW
OF DC FROM CLOUD COVER. COULD IT 70F SE FROM DC SHOULD THE CLOUDS
HOLD OFF LONG ENOUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE 1ST PART OF THE XTND WL BE CONTROLLED BY THE CLOSED/VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW PRES AREA. MUCH OF THE RMDR WL BE INFLUENCED BY A
RETURN TO HIGH PRES.

TUE NGT AND WED SHOULD BE CLDY. "SHOWERY" MAY BE THE BEST WORD TO
DESCRIBE THIS PD. NOT RAINY...JUST PDS OF RAIN W/ RLVTLY LOW QPF.
TEMP-WISE NOT MUCH OF A DIURNAL VARIATION - LOWS IN THE U40S/HIGHS
IN THE MU50S.

THE LOW IS XPCTD TO SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARDS SRN NEW ENGLAND...W/ HIGH
PRES WORKING ITS WAY BACK INTO THE RGN ON NWRLY WINDS. BRZY/
BLUSTERY MIGHT BE GOOD WORDS TO DESCRIBE THU AS THE HIGHER PRES
BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLC. HIGHS RANGING FM THE U40S IN THE
HIGHLANDS TO THE L60S NEAR THE CHES BAY. MAJORITY OF THE AREA
SHOULD HV HIGHS IN THE 50S.

AFTR THAT A SLOW WARMING TREND SHOULD TAKE PLACE UNDER M SUNNY
DAYTIME SKIES LEADING INTO THE WKND. HIGH TEMPS FOR THE UPCOMING
WKND XPCTD TO BE IN THE M60S OVR MOST OF THE AREA. LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONTINUES THROUGH TODAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH RETURN
SLY/SWLY FLOW GUSTING UP TO 18 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY WITH DOWNSLOPING WLY FLOW LIMITING RAIN
COVERAGE TO SCATTERED.

TUE NGT/WED XPCTD TO BE CLDY. HGTS WL PRBLY IN THE "LOW VFR
RANGE"...PSBLY DESCENDING INTO MVFR. SKIES SHOULD IMPRV THU AND FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
RETURN FLOW TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF SHORE. MORNING KIAD
SOUNDING INDICATED 20-25KT WINDS NEAR THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER...WHICH CONFIRMS MODELS THAT INDICATED A 925MB JET STREAM OF
25-30KT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HAVE EXPANDED THE SCA TO
ALL WATERS WITH A NOON START TIME. SCA EXPIRES FOR MOST ZONES AT 8
PM...EXCEPT FOR THE MD CHES BAY SOUTH OF POOLES ISLAND AND THE
LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC WHERE SOUTHERLY CHANNELING IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE UNTIL 2 AM. WLY FLOW TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

SCA CONDS XPCTD WED NGT AND THU...PSBLY CONT INTO FRI.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>533-535-536-538>542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM AND MARINE UPDATE...KCS






000
FXUS61 KRNK 201449
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1049 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA TODAY AND
CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AND THEN STALL AND
TRANSITION INTO AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. FOR OUR REGION THIS SERIES OF EVENTS WILL
RESULT IN INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 AM EDT MONDAY...

ALL FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS HAVE EXPIRED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY IS SHOWING A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...UPSTREAM RADARS SHOW A BAND OF PCPN
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER TROF MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN US. MESO MODELS
SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD GRASP OF THE SITUATION AND BASED ON
THIS...WILL BUMP TIMING OF POPS UP A COUPLE OF HOURS TO REFLECT
EXPECTED TRENDS. OTHER PARAMETERS ARE ON TRACK WITH CURRENT GRID
SET SO WILL FRESHEN WITH CURRENT DATA AND MAKE ONLY MINOR TREND
ADJUSTMENTS.

.PREVIOUS AFD...

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE QUICKLY MELTING AWAY ANY FROST AFTER
SUNRISE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE AROUND NOON...AND
BE NEAR 10 MPH AT MOST LOCATIONS BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE INTO THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
LEANED HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON CLOSE TO THE ADJMETBC
WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 50S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE
UPPER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ALONG THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT. THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE FOR WARMER OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH A FEW OF THE HIGHER RIDGES MAY REMAIN IN THE
LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

FOCUS THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON A SLOW MOVING
CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...MEANDERING TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION WED-THU. AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF MODEL RUNS TAKING
THE CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
HAVE TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH ONCE AGAIN...BUT REMAINING FAR ENOUGH
EAST THAT IT WILL STILL LEAVE THE CWA ON THE DRIER SOUTHWEST SIDE
OF THE SYSTEM. THE PRIMARY...LEADING WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL TRACK FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT...THEN TUE INTO EARLY WED...THE UPPER LOW WILL DIVE TO ITS
SOUTHERN MOST POSITION...TOWARD EAST CENTRAL VA. IN SO DOING...THE
NEXT LOBE OF PVA WILL WILL TRACK FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION AND RESULT IN A SLIGHT UPTICK IN RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE.
OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC
FLOW...ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...SCT -SHRA...MAINLY MOUNTAINS AND
AREAS NORTH OF U.S. 460. THE BEST OVERALL COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD COME WITH THIS
AFOREMENTIONED LOBE OF PVA AS THE UPPER LOW ROTATES TO A POSITION
JUST OFF THE DELMARVA BY WED EVENING. TOTAL QPF THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT 1/3 INCH NORTHERN GREENBRIER COUNTY TO TRACE
AMOUNTS AT BEST ACROSS MOST OF THE NC AND VA PIEDMONT COUNTIES.
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL SEE LESS THAN 1/10 INCH OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT. SLOW IMPROVEMENT CAN BE
EXPECTED THU AS THE UPPER LOW ROTATES BACK TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND...ALLOWING DRIER AIR FROM THE MIDWEST TO BEGIN TO SPREAD
INTO WESTERN AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER AND 850MB TEMPS HOVERING IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGIT
CENTIGRADE RANGE. THERE IS A POCKET OF NEAR 0C 850MB TEMPS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW THAT SETTLES DOWN OVER THE WESTERN PART
OF THE CWA EARLY THU...BUT THE CHANCE OF PCPN AT THAT TIME IN
THAT REGION IS NEAR ZERO...SO NO CONCERNS WITH WINTER
PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT...EVEN AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
WE MAY NEED TO ENTERTAIN FROST/FREEZE ADVISORIES LATE IN THE WEEK
ONCE AGAIN...BUT AGAIN APPEARS TO BE A MARGINAL SITUATION.

USED A MODEL BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...WITH MIN TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT MONDAY...

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION FRI-
SAT AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. INTO THE
EASTERN U.S. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL EFFECTIVELY SHUT OFF ALL
GULF MOISTURE FROM THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS WELL AS LOCKING
ANY REALLY COLD AIR WELL NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. A
WEAK...DRY UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE
REGION FRI-SAT...WHICH AT THIS POINT APPEARS TO DO LITTLE MORE
THAN BRING A FEW MID/HIGH CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL THEN DOMINATE FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR A CHANGE ALONG WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S WEST AND 70S
EAST. SHOULD BE A BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND FOR THE ENTIRE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT MONDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALREADY EAST OF THE REGION. THIS ALLOWED
RETURN SW FLOW TO RETURN EARLY IN ADVANCE OF NEXT UPSTREAM UPPER
LOW POISED OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
REGION TODAY. CIRRUS CLOUDS ALREADY SPREADING OVER THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST...AND CLOUD CIGS WILL LOWER TOWARD 100 BY
AFTERNOON...THEN TOWARD 050 IN WESTERN AREAS BY EVENING AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES. CLOUD SITUATION OVERNIGHT SOMEWHAT
PROBLEMATIC...BUT WITH UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT
EASTERN WV...EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR AFT 04Z...INCLUDING
KLWB/KBLF/KBCB WITH TIME. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR...BUT WILL LOWER TOWARD 050 EXCEPT KDAN. SCT -SHRA MAY
DEVELOP EASTERN WV WITH THE FRONT LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW THEREAFTER. SFC MOISTURE IS INITIALLY LACKING...SO
HAVE NOT ADVERTISED ANY RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY AT THIS POINT. LIFR-
IFR VSBYS ADVERTISED FOR LWB IN THE MOS GENERATED TAFS APPEAR TO
BE CLIMO BASED AND DO NOT SUPPORT ONGOING SYNOPTIC SITUATION.
WINDS...SW 7-10KTS TODAY WITH LOW END GUSTS THROUGH
AFTERNOON...BECOMING WSW-W OVERNIGHT AT SPEEDS OF 6-8KTS BEHIND
THE FRONT. THE IMMEDIATE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT
IMPRESSIVE.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH 00Z...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH 06Z...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND
DEEPEN INTO A NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE SLOW MOVEMENT NORTHEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR OUR REGION...THE MAIN IMPACT WITH BE A
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GUSTY WIND AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THAT
WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGION OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA. MVFR CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA TO LYH TO DAN
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE
CLOUDS IN WEST WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...FOR DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...MBS/KK
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...NF/RAB
AVIATION...KK/RAB



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201326
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
926 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFFSHORE TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOCATING OFF
THE NORTHEAST COAST FOR MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE TODAY...WITH SLY RETURN
FLOW/WAA COMMENCING. ALOFT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION INTO THE OH VALLEY...DOWNSTREAM OF AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE
OVER THE WRN CONUS. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT REACHES THE OH VALLEY
LATE TODAY. INCREASING WINDS ALOFT AND LEADWAVE SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL PROVIDE DYNAMICAL FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE REGION...BUT
DUE TO A DRY AIR MASS PER BUFR SOUNDINGS AND PWATS AROUND 0.75
INCHES...WILL ONLY SEE INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDS LATE TODAY. LOW-
LEVEL THICKNESSES INCREASE NEARLY 20 M TODAY THANKS TO SLY SFC
WINDS OF 10-15 MPH AND SWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS. H85 TEMPS WARM TO
AROUND 12C. TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FLOW AMPLIFIES DURING THE SHORT TERM AS A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS
OVER THE ERN CONUS. ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES
TUES THANKS TO A 100+ KT JET STREAK DIVING SWD FROM S CNTRL CANADA.
AS A RESULT...UPPER LOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE NE STATES. THE UPPER LOW WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EWD TUES NIGHT
INTO WEDS...LOCATING OFFSHORE LATE WEDS. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW DROPS
INTO THE NE STATES TONIGHT WITH A ATTENDANT COLD FRONT REACHING THE
LOCAL AREA EARLY TUES MORNING. MEANWHILE...AN INVERTED
TROUGH/COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPS ALONG/JUST OFF THE SE/MID-ATLANTIC
COAST AS THE SFC HIGH PUSHES WELL OFFSHORE. SHORTWAVE/HEIGHT FALLS
AND INCREASING WINDS ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE
FRONT...BUT A MOISTURE STARVED AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN LITTLE MORE
THAN LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE NW LOCAL AREA. BEST COVERAGE OF LIGHT
SHOWERS EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT TUES MORNING. THE STACKED
LOW CROSSES THE AREA TUES...LOCATING JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
LATE TUES. VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE UVM OVER THE REGION...BUT THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP WILL BE NEAREST THE SFC LOW/BEST MOISTURE OVER THE N AND NE
LOCAL AREA. AS THE LOW LOCATES OFFSHORE TUES NIGHT...BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE ERN SHORE. MOSTLY CLOUDY-CLOUDY
CONDITIONS TUES ACROSS THE N-NE TO PARTLY CLOUDY SW. HIGHS TUES
PROGGED IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS
AS THE TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION SWING OFFSHORE. WL THEREFORE KEEP
FORECAST DRY WEST OF I-95 ON WED, WITH LOW CHC POP FARTHER EAST
FOR SOME SCT SHRAS OVER COASTAL AREAS/ERN SHORE. HIGHS WED
REMAIN BELOW CLIMO NUMBERS...GENERALLY IN THE L-M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WED NIGHT THRU
FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE POPS (~30%) ACROSS FAR EASTERN
ZONES WED NIGHT...LOWERING TO SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) OVER THE LOWER
MD EASTERN SHORE ON THURS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COASTAL LOW LATE IN THE COMING WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...PUSHING INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION NEXT SUNDAY. DRY WX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED.
HIGHS THU 60-65...THEN FRI-SUN IN THE MID/UPR 60S. LOWS IN THE 40S
TO LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY/VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT...JUST SOME INCREASING
MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACRS THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME S/SW TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTN.

OUTLOOK...NEXT FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
THEN LINGERS OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING ALONG
WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS. WINDS FROM THE NW ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
GUSTY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE NEAR TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD/MUCH
LIGHTER WINDS...AND COASTAL SEAS NOW 3-4 FT OR LESS THROUGHOUT THE
REGION. SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE LATER TODAY...ALLOWING
WINDS TO TURN TO THE S/SW. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT THIS
AFTN/EVENING...EXPECT SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH WIND SPEEDS
AVERAGING UP TO 15-20 KT ACRS NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...GENLY 10-15
KT ELSEWHERE. NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE WATERS LATE TUE
AFTN/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY EVENTUAL SCA CONDITIONS AS SFC LOW
PRESSURE THEN DEEPENS OFF THE COAST. WITH SYSTEM EXPECTED TO STALL
OFFSHORE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS IS LIKELY. WITH FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FROM THE NW...SEAS
WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...LKB







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201326
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
926 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFFSHORE TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOCATING OFF
THE NORTHEAST COAST FOR MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE TODAY...WITH SLY RETURN
FLOW/WAA COMMENCING. ALOFT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION INTO THE OH VALLEY...DOWNSTREAM OF AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE
OVER THE WRN CONUS. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT REACHES THE OH VALLEY
LATE TODAY. INCREASING WINDS ALOFT AND LEADWAVE SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL PROVIDE DYNAMICAL FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE REGION...BUT
DUE TO A DRY AIR MASS PER BUFR SOUNDINGS AND PWATS AROUND 0.75
INCHES...WILL ONLY SEE INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDS LATE TODAY. LOW-
LEVEL THICKNESSES INCREASE NEARLY 20 M TODAY THANKS TO SLY SFC
WINDS OF 10-15 MPH AND SWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS. H85 TEMPS WARM TO
AROUND 12C. TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FLOW AMPLIFIES DURING THE SHORT TERM AS A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS
OVER THE ERN CONUS. ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES
TUES THANKS TO A 100+ KT JET STREAK DIVING SWD FROM S CNTRL CANADA.
AS A RESULT...UPPER LOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE NE STATES. THE UPPER LOW WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EWD TUES NIGHT
INTO WEDS...LOCATING OFFSHORE LATE WEDS. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW DROPS
INTO THE NE STATES TONIGHT WITH A ATTENDANT COLD FRONT REACHING THE
LOCAL AREA EARLY TUES MORNING. MEANWHILE...AN INVERTED
TROUGH/COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPS ALONG/JUST OFF THE SE/MID-ATLANTIC
COAST AS THE SFC HIGH PUSHES WELL OFFSHORE. SHORTWAVE/HEIGHT FALLS
AND INCREASING WINDS ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE
FRONT...BUT A MOISTURE STARVED AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN LITTLE MORE
THAN LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE NW LOCAL AREA. BEST COVERAGE OF LIGHT
SHOWERS EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT TUES MORNING. THE STACKED
LOW CROSSES THE AREA TUES...LOCATING JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
LATE TUES. VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE UVM OVER THE REGION...BUT THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP WILL BE NEAREST THE SFC LOW/BEST MOISTURE OVER THE N AND NE
LOCAL AREA. AS THE LOW LOCATES OFFSHORE TUES NIGHT...BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE ERN SHORE. MOSTLY CLOUDY-CLOUDY
CONDITIONS TUES ACROSS THE N-NE TO PARTLY CLOUDY SW. HIGHS TUES
PROGGED IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS
AS THE TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION SWING OFFSHORE. WL THEREFORE KEEP
FORECAST DRY WEST OF I-95 ON WED, WITH LOW CHC POP FARTHER EAST
FOR SOME SCT SHRAS OVER COASTAL AREAS/ERN SHORE. HIGHS WED
REMAIN BELOW CLIMO NUMBERS...GENERALLY IN THE L-M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WED NIGHT THRU
FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE POPS (~30%) ACROSS FAR EASTERN
ZONES WED NIGHT...LOWERING TO SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) OVER THE LOWER
MD EASTERN SHORE ON THURS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COASTAL LOW LATE IN THE COMING WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...PUSHING INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION NEXT SUNDAY. DRY WX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED.
HIGHS THU 60-65...THEN FRI-SUN IN THE MID/UPR 60S. LOWS IN THE 40S
TO LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY/VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT...JUST SOME INCREASING
MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACRS THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME S/SW TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTN.

OUTLOOK...NEXT FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
THEN LINGERS OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING ALONG
WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS. WINDS FROM THE NW ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
GUSTY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE NEAR TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD/MUCH
LIGHTER WINDS...AND COASTAL SEAS NOW 3-4 FT OR LESS THROUGHOUT THE
REGION. SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE LATER TODAY...ALLOWING
WINDS TO TURN TO THE S/SW. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT THIS
AFTN/EVENING...EXPECT SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH WIND SPEEDS
AVERAGING UP TO 15-20 KT ACRS NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...GENLY 10-15
KT ELSEWHERE. NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE WATERS LATE TUE
AFTN/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY EVENTUAL SCA CONDITIONS AS SFC LOW
PRESSURE THEN DEEPENS OFF THE COAST. WITH SYSTEM EXPECTED TO STALL
OFFSHORE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS IS LIKELY. WITH FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FROM THE NW...SEAS
WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...LKB






000
FXUS61 KLWX 201316
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
916 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL
ENTER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT...PERSISTING OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
THE END OF THE WORKWEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TEMPS HAVE MODERATED INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S AT 9AM...SO
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES WERE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER EASTERN VA/MD/NC THIS MORNING. CIRRUS
DECK HAS MOVED INTO NRN AND WRN MD...WESTERN VA AND WV...AND WILL
AFFECT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE
TODAY WITH SLY/SWLY FLOW GUSTING UP TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
925MB TEMPS AROUND 12C...MAX TEMPS MID TO UPR 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES LOW WILL CROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
AND LIGHT SHOWERS AHEAD PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH MAINLY WLY FLOW. THE DOWNSLOPE
WILL COUNTERACT THE HEIGHT FALLS. THEREFORE...WENT WITH SCATTERED
COVERAGE FOR POPS THROUGH THE DAY. MAX TEMPS LOWER THAN MONDAY NW OF
DC FROM CLOUD COVER. COULD IT 70F SE FROM DC SHOULD THE CLOUDS HOLD
OFF LONG ENOUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE 1ST PART OF THE XTND WL BE CONTROLLED BY THE CLOSED/VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW PRES AREA. MUCH OF THE RMDR WL BE INFLUENCED BY A
RETURN TO HIGH PRES.

TUE NGT AND WED SHOULD BE CLDY. "SHOWERY" MAY BE THE BEST WORD TO
DESCRIBE THIS PD. NOT RAINY...JUST PDS OF RAIN W/ RLVTLY LOW QPF.
TEMP-WISE NOT MUCH OF A DIURNAL VARIATION - LOWS IN THE U40S/HIGHS
IN THE MU50S.

THE LOW IS XPCTD TO SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARDS SRN NEW ENGLAND...W/ HIGH
PRES WORKING ITS WAY BACK INTO THE RGN ON NWRLY WINDS. BRZY/
BLUSTERY MIGHT BE GOOD WORDS TO DESCRIBE THU AS THE HIGHER PRES
BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLC. HIGHS RANGING FM THE U40S IN THE
HIGHLANDS TO THE L60S NEAR THE CHES BAY. MAJORITY OF THE AREA
SHOULD HV HIGHS IN THE 50S.

AFTR THAT A SLOW WARMING TREND SHOULD TAKE PLACE UNDER M SUNNY
DAYTIME SKIES LEADING INTO THE WKND. HIGH TEMPS FOR THE UPCOMING
WKND XPCTD TO BE IN THE M60S OVR MOST OF THE AREA. LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONTINUES THROUGH TODAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH RETURN
SLY/SWLY FLOW GUSTING UP TO 18 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY WITH DOWNSLOPING WLY FLOW LIMITING RAIN
COVERAGE TO SCATTERED.

TUE NGT/WED XPCTD TO BE CLDY. HGTS WL PRBLY IN THE "LOW VFR
RANGE"...PSBLY DESCENDING INTO MVFR. SKIES SHOULD IMPRV THU AND FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
RETURN FLOW TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF SHORE. SCA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FOR MD BAY SOUTH OF POOLES ISLAND FOR SLY
CHANNELING UP TO 20 KT. WEAK COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT SHIFTS WINDS
WEST. WLY FLOW TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

SCA CONDS XPCTD WED NGT AND THU...PSBLY CONT INTO FRI.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ531>533-540-541.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM UPDATE...KCS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 201316
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
916 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL
ENTER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT...PERSISTING OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
THE END OF THE WORKWEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TEMPS HAVE MODERATED INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S AT 9AM...SO
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES WERE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER EASTERN VA/MD/NC THIS MORNING. CIRRUS
DECK HAS MOVED INTO NRN AND WRN MD...WESTERN VA AND WV...AND WILL
AFFECT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE
TODAY WITH SLY/SWLY FLOW GUSTING UP TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
925MB TEMPS AROUND 12C...MAX TEMPS MID TO UPR 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES LOW WILL CROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
AND LIGHT SHOWERS AHEAD PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH MAINLY WLY FLOW. THE DOWNSLOPE
WILL COUNTERACT THE HEIGHT FALLS. THEREFORE...WENT WITH SCATTERED
COVERAGE FOR POPS THROUGH THE DAY. MAX TEMPS LOWER THAN MONDAY NW OF
DC FROM CLOUD COVER. COULD IT 70F SE FROM DC SHOULD THE CLOUDS HOLD
OFF LONG ENOUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE 1ST PART OF THE XTND WL BE CONTROLLED BY THE CLOSED/VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW PRES AREA. MUCH OF THE RMDR WL BE INFLUENCED BY A
RETURN TO HIGH PRES.

TUE NGT AND WED SHOULD BE CLDY. "SHOWERY" MAY BE THE BEST WORD TO
DESCRIBE THIS PD. NOT RAINY...JUST PDS OF RAIN W/ RLVTLY LOW QPF.
TEMP-WISE NOT MUCH OF A DIURNAL VARIATION - LOWS IN THE U40S/HIGHS
IN THE MU50S.

THE LOW IS XPCTD TO SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARDS SRN NEW ENGLAND...W/ HIGH
PRES WORKING ITS WAY BACK INTO THE RGN ON NWRLY WINDS. BRZY/
BLUSTERY MIGHT BE GOOD WORDS TO DESCRIBE THU AS THE HIGHER PRES
BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLC. HIGHS RANGING FM THE U40S IN THE
HIGHLANDS TO THE L60S NEAR THE CHES BAY. MAJORITY OF THE AREA
SHOULD HV HIGHS IN THE 50S.

AFTR THAT A SLOW WARMING TREND SHOULD TAKE PLACE UNDER M SUNNY
DAYTIME SKIES LEADING INTO THE WKND. HIGH TEMPS FOR THE UPCOMING
WKND XPCTD TO BE IN THE M60S OVR MOST OF THE AREA. LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONTINUES THROUGH TODAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH RETURN
SLY/SWLY FLOW GUSTING UP TO 18 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY WITH DOWNSLOPING WLY FLOW LIMITING RAIN
COVERAGE TO SCATTERED.

TUE NGT/WED XPCTD TO BE CLDY. HGTS WL PRBLY IN THE "LOW VFR
RANGE"...PSBLY DESCENDING INTO MVFR. SKIES SHOULD IMPRV THU AND FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
RETURN FLOW TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF SHORE. SCA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FOR MD BAY SOUTH OF POOLES ISLAND FOR SLY
CHANNELING UP TO 20 KT. WEAK COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT SHIFTS WINDS
WEST. WLY FLOW TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

SCA CONDS XPCTD WED NGT AND THU...PSBLY CONT INTO FRI.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ531>533-540-541.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM UPDATE...KCS








000
FXUS61 KRNK 201137
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
737 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA TODAY AND
CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AND THEN STALL AND
TRANSITION INTO AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. FOR OUR REGION THIS SERIES OF EVENTS WILL
RESULT IN INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...

FREEZE WARNINGS AND FROST ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM
THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE QUICKLY MELTING AWAY ANY FROST
AFTER SUNRISE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE AROUND
NOON...AND BE NEAR 10 MPH AT MOST LOCATIONS BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE INTO THIS AFTERNOON FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. LEANED HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON CLOSE TO THE ADJMETBC WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 50S IN
THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ALONG THE
APPALACHIAN CHAIN IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT.  THE
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE FOR
WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH A FEW OF THE HIGHER RIDGES MAY REMAIN IN THE
LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

FOCUS THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON A SLOW MOVING
CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...MEANDERING TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION WED-THU. AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF MODEL RUNS TAKING
THE CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
HAVE TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH ONCE AGAIN...BUT REMAINING FAR ENOUGH
EAST THAT IT WILL STILL LEAVE THE CWA ON THE DRIER SOUTHWEST SIDE
OF THE SYSTEM. THE PRIMARY...LEADING WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL TRACK FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT...THEN TUE INTO EARLY WED...THE UPPER LOW WILL DIVE TO ITS
SOUTHERN MOST POSITION...TOWARD EAST CENTRAL VA. IN SO DOING...THE
NEXT LOBE OF PVA WILL WILL TRACK FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION AND RESULT IN A SLIGHT UPTICK IN RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE.
OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC
FLOW...ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...SCT -SHRA...MAINLY MOUNTAINS AND
AREAS NORTH OF U.S. 460. THE BEST OVERALL COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD COME WITH THIS
AFOREMENTIONED LOBE OF PVA AS THE UPPER LOW ROTATES TO A POSITION
JUST OFF THE DELMARVA BY WED EVENING. TOTAL QPF THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT 1/3 INCH NORTHERN GREENBRIER COUNTY TO TRACE
AMOUNTS AT BEST ACROSS MOST OF THE NC AND VA PIEDMONT COUNTIES.
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL SEE LESS THAN 1/10 INCH OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT. SLOW IMPROVEMENT CAN BE
EXPECTED THU AS THE UPPER LOW ROTATES BACK TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND...ALLOWING DRIER AIR FROM THE MIDWEST TO BEGIN TO SPREAD
INTO WESTERN AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER AND 850MB TEMPS HOVERING IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGIT
CENTIGRADE RANGE. THERE IS A POCKET OF NEAR 0C 850MB TEMPS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW THAT SETTLES DOWN OVER THE WESTERN PART
OF THE CWA EARLY THU...BUT THE CHANCE OF PCPN AT THAT TIME IN
THAT REGION IS NEAR ZERO...SO NO CONCERNS WITH WINTER
PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT...EVEN AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
WE MAY NEED TO ENTERTAIN FROST/FREEZE ADVISORIES LATE IN THE WEEK
ONCE AGAIN...BUT AGAIN APPEARS TO BE A MARGINAL SITUATION.

USED A MODEL BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...WITH MIN TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT MONDAY...

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION FRI-
SAT AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. INTO THE
EASTERN U.S. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL EFFECTIVELY SHUT OFF ALL
GULF MOISTURE FROM THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS WELL AS LOCKING
ANY REALLY COLD AIR WELL NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. A
WEAK...DRY UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE
REGION FRI-SAT...WHICH AT THIS POINT APPEARS TO DO LITTLE MORE
THAN BRING A FEW MID/HIGH CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL THEN DOMINATE FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR A CHANGE ALONG WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S WEST AND 70S
EAST. SHOULD BE A BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND FOR THE ENTIRE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT MONDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALREADY EAST OF THE REGION. THIS ALLOWED
RETURN SW FLOW TO RETURN EARLY IN ADVANCE OF NEXT UPSTREAM UPPER
LOW POISED OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
REGION TODAY. CIRRUS CLOUDS ALREADY SPREADING OVER THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST...AND CLOUD CIGS WILL LOWER TOWARD 100 BY
AFTERNOON...THEN TOWARD 050 IN WESTERN AREAS BY EVENING AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES. CLOUD SITUATION OVERNIGHT SOMEWHAT
PROBLEMATIC...BUT WITH UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT
EASTERN WV...EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR AFT 04Z...INCLUDING
KLWB/KBLF/KBCB WITH TIME. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR...BUT WILL LOWER TOWARD 050 EXCEPT KDAN. SCT -SHRA MAY
DEVELOP EASTERN WV WITH THE FRONT LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW THEREAFTER. SFC MOISTURE IS INITIALLY LACKING...SO
HAVE NOT ADVERTISED ANY RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY AT THIS POINT. LIFR-
IFR VSBYS ADVERTISED FOR LWB IN THE MOS GENERATED TAFS APPEAR TO
BE CLIMO BASED AND DO NOT SUPPORT ONGOING SYNOPTIC SITUATION.
WINDS...SW 7-10KTS TODAY WITH LOW END GUSTS THROUGH
AFTERNOON...BECOMING WSW-W OVERNIGHT AT SPEEDS OF 6-8KTS BEHIND
THE FRONT. THE IMMEDIATE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT
IMPRESSIVE.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH 00Z...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH 06Z...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND
DEEPEN INTO A NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE SLOW MOVEMENT NORTHEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR OUR REGION...THE MAIN IMPACT WITH BE A
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GUSTY WIND AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THAT
WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGION OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA. MVFR CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA TO LYH TO DAN
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE
CLOUDS IN WEST WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...FOR DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ009>015-
     018>020-023-024-034-035-045>047.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ007.
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ042>044.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...NF/RAB
AVIATION...KK/RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 201137
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
737 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA TODAY AND
CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AND THEN STALL AND
TRANSITION INTO AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. FOR OUR REGION THIS SERIES OF EVENTS WILL
RESULT IN INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...

FREEZE WARNINGS AND FROST ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM
THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE QUICKLY MELTING AWAY ANY FROST
AFTER SUNRISE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE AROUND
NOON...AND BE NEAR 10 MPH AT MOST LOCATIONS BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE INTO THIS AFTERNOON FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. LEANED HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON CLOSE TO THE ADJMETBC WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 50S IN
THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ALONG THE
APPALACHIAN CHAIN IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT.  THE
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE FOR
WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH A FEW OF THE HIGHER RIDGES MAY REMAIN IN THE
LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

FOCUS THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON A SLOW MOVING
CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...MEANDERING TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION WED-THU. AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF MODEL RUNS TAKING
THE CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
HAVE TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH ONCE AGAIN...BUT REMAINING FAR ENOUGH
EAST THAT IT WILL STILL LEAVE THE CWA ON THE DRIER SOUTHWEST SIDE
OF THE SYSTEM. THE PRIMARY...LEADING WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL TRACK FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT...THEN TUE INTO EARLY WED...THE UPPER LOW WILL DIVE TO ITS
SOUTHERN MOST POSITION...TOWARD EAST CENTRAL VA. IN SO DOING...THE
NEXT LOBE OF PVA WILL WILL TRACK FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION AND RESULT IN A SLIGHT UPTICK IN RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE.
OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC
FLOW...ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...SCT -SHRA...MAINLY MOUNTAINS AND
AREAS NORTH OF U.S. 460. THE BEST OVERALL COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD COME WITH THIS
AFOREMENTIONED LOBE OF PVA AS THE UPPER LOW ROTATES TO A POSITION
JUST OFF THE DELMARVA BY WED EVENING. TOTAL QPF THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT 1/3 INCH NORTHERN GREENBRIER COUNTY TO TRACE
AMOUNTS AT BEST ACROSS MOST OF THE NC AND VA PIEDMONT COUNTIES.
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL SEE LESS THAN 1/10 INCH OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT. SLOW IMPROVEMENT CAN BE
EXPECTED THU AS THE UPPER LOW ROTATES BACK TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND...ALLOWING DRIER AIR FROM THE MIDWEST TO BEGIN TO SPREAD
INTO WESTERN AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER AND 850MB TEMPS HOVERING IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGIT
CENTIGRADE RANGE. THERE IS A POCKET OF NEAR 0C 850MB TEMPS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW THAT SETTLES DOWN OVER THE WESTERN PART
OF THE CWA EARLY THU...BUT THE CHANCE OF PCPN AT THAT TIME IN
THAT REGION IS NEAR ZERO...SO NO CONCERNS WITH WINTER
PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT...EVEN AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
WE MAY NEED TO ENTERTAIN FROST/FREEZE ADVISORIES LATE IN THE WEEK
ONCE AGAIN...BUT AGAIN APPEARS TO BE A MARGINAL SITUATION.

USED A MODEL BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...WITH MIN TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT MONDAY...

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION FRI-
SAT AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. INTO THE
EASTERN U.S. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL EFFECTIVELY SHUT OFF ALL
GULF MOISTURE FROM THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS WELL AS LOCKING
ANY REALLY COLD AIR WELL NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. A
WEAK...DRY UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE
REGION FRI-SAT...WHICH AT THIS POINT APPEARS TO DO LITTLE MORE
THAN BRING A FEW MID/HIGH CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL THEN DOMINATE FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR A CHANGE ALONG WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S WEST AND 70S
EAST. SHOULD BE A BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND FOR THE ENTIRE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT MONDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALREADY EAST OF THE REGION. THIS ALLOWED
RETURN SW FLOW TO RETURN EARLY IN ADVANCE OF NEXT UPSTREAM UPPER
LOW POISED OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
REGION TODAY. CIRRUS CLOUDS ALREADY SPREADING OVER THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST...AND CLOUD CIGS WILL LOWER TOWARD 100 BY
AFTERNOON...THEN TOWARD 050 IN WESTERN AREAS BY EVENING AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES. CLOUD SITUATION OVERNIGHT SOMEWHAT
PROBLEMATIC...BUT WITH UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT
EASTERN WV...EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR AFT 04Z...INCLUDING
KLWB/KBLF/KBCB WITH TIME. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR...BUT WILL LOWER TOWARD 050 EXCEPT KDAN. SCT -SHRA MAY
DEVELOP EASTERN WV WITH THE FRONT LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW THEREAFTER. SFC MOISTURE IS INITIALLY LACKING...SO
HAVE NOT ADVERTISED ANY RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY AT THIS POINT. LIFR-
IFR VSBYS ADVERTISED FOR LWB IN THE MOS GENERATED TAFS APPEAR TO
BE CLIMO BASED AND DO NOT SUPPORT ONGOING SYNOPTIC SITUATION.
WINDS...SW 7-10KTS TODAY WITH LOW END GUSTS THROUGH
AFTERNOON...BECOMING WSW-W OVERNIGHT AT SPEEDS OF 6-8KTS BEHIND
THE FRONT. THE IMMEDIATE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT
IMPRESSIVE.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH 00Z...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH 06Z...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND
DEEPEN INTO A NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE SLOW MOVEMENT NORTHEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR OUR REGION...THE MAIN IMPACT WITH BE A
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GUSTY WIND AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THAT
WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGION OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA. MVFR CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA TO LYH TO DAN
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE
CLOUDS IN WEST WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...FOR DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ009>015-
     018>020-023-024-034-035-045>047.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ007.
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ042>044.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...NF/RAB
AVIATION...KK/RAB



000
FXUS61 KRNK 200851
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
451 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA TODAY AND
CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AND THEN STALL AND
TRANSITION INTO AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. FOR OUR REGION THIS SERIES OF EVENTS WILL
RESULT IN INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...

FREEZE WARNINGS AND FROST ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM
THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE QUICKLY MELTING AWAY ANY FROST
AFTER SUNRISE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE AROUND
NOON...AND BE NEAR 10 MPH AT MOST LOCATIONS BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE INTO THIS AFTERNOON FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. LEANED HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON CLOSE TO THE ADJMETBC WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 50S IN
THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ALONG THE
APPALACHIAN CHAIN IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT.  THE
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE FOR
WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH A FEW OF THE HIGHER RIDGES MAY REMAIN IN THE
LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

FOCUS THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON A SLOW MOVING
CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...MEANDERING TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION WED-THU. AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF MODEL RUNS TAKING
THE CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
HAVE TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH ONCE AGAIN...BUT REMAINING FAR ENOUGH
EAST THAT IT WILL STILL LEAVE THE CWA ON THE DRIER SOUTHWEST SIDE
OF THE SYSTEM. THE PRIMARY...LEADING WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL TRACK FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT...THEN TUE INTO EARLY WED...THE UPPER LOW WILL DIVE TO ITS
SOUTHERN MOST POSITION...TOWARD EAST CENTRAL VA. IN SO DOING...THE
NEXT LOBE OF PVA WILL WILL TRACK FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION AND RESULT IN A SLIGHT UPTICK IN RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE.
OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC
FLOW...ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...SCT -SHRA...MAINLY MOUNTAINS AND
AREAS NORTH OF U.S. 460. THE BEST OVERALL COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD COME WITH THIS
AFOREMENTIONED LOBE OF PVA AS THE UPPER LOW ROTATES TO A POSITION
JUST OFF THE DELMARVA BY WED EVENING. TOTAL QPF THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT 1/3 INCH NORTHERN GREENBRIER COUNTY TO TRACE
AMOUNTS AT BEST ACROSS MOST OF THE NC AND VA PIEDMONT COUNTIES.
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL SEE LESS THAN 1/10 INCH OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT. SLOW IMPROVEMENT CAN BE
EXPECTED THU AS THE UPPER LOW ROTATES BACK TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND...ALLOWING DRIER AIR FROM THE MIDWEST TO BEGIN TO SPREAD
INTO WESTERN AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER AND 850MB TEMPS HOVERING IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGIT
CENTIGRADE RANGE. THERE IS A POCKET OF NEAR 0C 850MB TEMPS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW THAT SETTLES DOWN OVER THE WESTERN PART
OF THE CWA EARLY THU...BUT THE CHANCE OF PCPN AT THAT TIME IN
THAT REGION IS NEAR ZERO...SO NO CONCERNS WITH WINTER
PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT...EVEN AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
WE MAY NEED TO ENTERTAIN FROST/FREEZE ADVISORIES LATE IN THE WEEK
ONCE AGAIN...BUT AGAIN APPEARS TO BE A MARGINAL SITUATION.

USED A MODEL BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...WITH MIN TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT MONDAY...

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION FRI-
SAT AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. INTO THE
EASTERN U.S. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL EFFECTIVELY SHUT OFF ALL
GULF MOISTURE FROM THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS WELL AS LOCKING
ANY REALLY COLD AIR WELL NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. A
WEAK...DRY UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE
REGION FRI-SAT...WHICH AT THIS POINT APPEARS TO DO LITTLE MORE
THAN BRING A FEW MID/HIGH CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL THEN DOMINATE FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR A CHANGE ALONG WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S WEST AND 70S
EAST. SHOULD BE A BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND FOR THE ENTIRE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT MONDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
OVERNIGHT AND TO THE COAST OF VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA
LATER THIS MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIN CIRRUS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST
THIS MORNING...AND COMBINED WITH VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS
PREVENTING ANY FOG FROM FORMATION IN TYPICAL FAVORED VALLEYS...SO
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS MORNING. A LIGHT COATING
OF FROST IS POSSIBLE ON PARKED AIRCRAFT EXPOSED TO THE ELEMENTS
OVERNIGHT INTO THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TODAY AND DAYTIME HEATING
BEGINS...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL START TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF OUR
NEXT APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. OCCASIONAL CIRRUS WILL STILL DRIFT
ACROSS THE REGION INITIALLY...AND THEN BY AFTERNOON AN INCREASE IN
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE FAR WEST. STILL VFR
CONDITIONS. THERE IS SOME HINT OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT SNEAKING INTO
THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS BY LATE AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD OFF AT THE
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AIRPORTS UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. EVEN SO...A
VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF RESULTING IN SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING...VISIBILITIES AND WIND FORECASTS
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND
DEEPEN INTO A NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE SLOW MOVEMENT NORTHEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR OUR REGION...THE MAIN IMPACT WITH BE A
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GUSTY WIND AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THAT
WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGION OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA. MVFR CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA TO LYH TO DAN
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE
CLOUDS IN WEST WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...FOR DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ009>015-
     018>020-023-024-034-035-045>047.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ007.
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ042>044.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...NF/RAB
AVIATION...KK



000
FXUS61 KRNK 200851
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
451 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA TODAY AND
CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AND THEN STALL AND
TRANSITION INTO AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. FOR OUR REGION THIS SERIES OF EVENTS WILL
RESULT IN INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...

FREEZE WARNINGS AND FROST ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM
THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE QUICKLY MELTING AWAY ANY FROST
AFTER SUNRISE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE AROUND
NOON...AND BE NEAR 10 MPH AT MOST LOCATIONS BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE INTO THIS AFTERNOON FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. LEANED HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON CLOSE TO THE ADJMETBC WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 50S IN
THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ALONG THE
APPALACHIAN CHAIN IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT.  THE
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE FOR
WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH A FEW OF THE HIGHER RIDGES MAY REMAIN IN THE
LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

FOCUS THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON A SLOW MOVING
CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...MEANDERING TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION WED-THU. AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF MODEL RUNS TAKING
THE CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
HAVE TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH ONCE AGAIN...BUT REMAINING FAR ENOUGH
EAST THAT IT WILL STILL LEAVE THE CWA ON THE DRIER SOUTHWEST SIDE
OF THE SYSTEM. THE PRIMARY...LEADING WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL TRACK FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT...THEN TUE INTO EARLY WED...THE UPPER LOW WILL DIVE TO ITS
SOUTHERN MOST POSITION...TOWARD EAST CENTRAL VA. IN SO DOING...THE
NEXT LOBE OF PVA WILL WILL TRACK FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION AND RESULT IN A SLIGHT UPTICK IN RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE.
OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC
FLOW...ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...SCT -SHRA...MAINLY MOUNTAINS AND
AREAS NORTH OF U.S. 460. THE BEST OVERALL COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD COME WITH THIS
AFOREMENTIONED LOBE OF PVA AS THE UPPER LOW ROTATES TO A POSITION
JUST OFF THE DELMARVA BY WED EVENING. TOTAL QPF THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT 1/3 INCH NORTHERN GREENBRIER COUNTY TO TRACE
AMOUNTS AT BEST ACROSS MOST OF THE NC AND VA PIEDMONT COUNTIES.
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL SEE LESS THAN 1/10 INCH OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT. SLOW IMPROVEMENT CAN BE
EXPECTED THU AS THE UPPER LOW ROTATES BACK TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND...ALLOWING DRIER AIR FROM THE MIDWEST TO BEGIN TO SPREAD
INTO WESTERN AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER AND 850MB TEMPS HOVERING IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGIT
CENTIGRADE RANGE. THERE IS A POCKET OF NEAR 0C 850MB TEMPS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW THAT SETTLES DOWN OVER THE WESTERN PART
OF THE CWA EARLY THU...BUT THE CHANCE OF PCPN AT THAT TIME IN
THAT REGION IS NEAR ZERO...SO NO CONCERNS WITH WINTER
PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT...EVEN AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
WE MAY NEED TO ENTERTAIN FROST/FREEZE ADVISORIES LATE IN THE WEEK
ONCE AGAIN...BUT AGAIN APPEARS TO BE A MARGINAL SITUATION.

USED A MODEL BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...WITH MIN TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT MONDAY...

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION FRI-
SAT AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. INTO THE
EASTERN U.S. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL EFFECTIVELY SHUT OFF ALL
GULF MOISTURE FROM THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS WELL AS LOCKING
ANY REALLY COLD AIR WELL NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. A
WEAK...DRY UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE
REGION FRI-SAT...WHICH AT THIS POINT APPEARS TO DO LITTLE MORE
THAN BRING A FEW MID/HIGH CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL THEN DOMINATE FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR A CHANGE ALONG WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S WEST AND 70S
EAST. SHOULD BE A BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND FOR THE ENTIRE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT MONDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
OVERNIGHT AND TO THE COAST OF VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA
LATER THIS MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIN CIRRUS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST
THIS MORNING...AND COMBINED WITH VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS
PREVENTING ANY FOG FROM FORMATION IN TYPICAL FAVORED VALLEYS...SO
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS MORNING. A LIGHT COATING
OF FROST IS POSSIBLE ON PARKED AIRCRAFT EXPOSED TO THE ELEMENTS
OVERNIGHT INTO THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TODAY AND DAYTIME HEATING
BEGINS...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL START TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF OUR
NEXT APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. OCCASIONAL CIRRUS WILL STILL DRIFT
ACROSS THE REGION INITIALLY...AND THEN BY AFTERNOON AN INCREASE IN
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE FAR WEST. STILL VFR
CONDITIONS. THERE IS SOME HINT OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT SNEAKING INTO
THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS BY LATE AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD OFF AT THE
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AIRPORTS UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. EVEN SO...A
VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF RESULTING IN SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING...VISIBILITIES AND WIND FORECASTS
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND
DEEPEN INTO A NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE SLOW MOVEMENT NORTHEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR OUR REGION...THE MAIN IMPACT WITH BE A
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GUSTY WIND AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THAT
WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGION OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA. MVFR CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA TO LYH TO DAN
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE
CLOUDS IN WEST WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...FOR DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ009>015-
     018>020-023-024-034-035-045>047.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ007.
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ042>044.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...NF/RAB
AVIATION...KK



000
FXUS61 KRNK 200851
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
451 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA TODAY AND
CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AND THEN STALL AND
TRANSITION INTO AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. FOR OUR REGION THIS SERIES OF EVENTS WILL
RESULT IN INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...

FREEZE WARNINGS AND FROST ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM
THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE QUICKLY MELTING AWAY ANY FROST
AFTER SUNRISE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE AROUND
NOON...AND BE NEAR 10 MPH AT MOST LOCATIONS BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE INTO THIS AFTERNOON FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. LEANED HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON CLOSE TO THE ADJMETBC WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 50S IN
THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ALONG THE
APPALACHIAN CHAIN IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT.  THE
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE FOR
WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH A FEW OF THE HIGHER RIDGES MAY REMAIN IN THE
LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

FOCUS THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON A SLOW MOVING
CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...MEANDERING TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION WED-THU. AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF MODEL RUNS TAKING
THE CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
HAVE TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH ONCE AGAIN...BUT REMAINING FAR ENOUGH
EAST THAT IT WILL STILL LEAVE THE CWA ON THE DRIER SOUTHWEST SIDE
OF THE SYSTEM. THE PRIMARY...LEADING WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL TRACK FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT...THEN TUE INTO EARLY WED...THE UPPER LOW WILL DIVE TO ITS
SOUTHERN MOST POSITION...TOWARD EAST CENTRAL VA. IN SO DOING...THE
NEXT LOBE OF PVA WILL WILL TRACK FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION AND RESULT IN A SLIGHT UPTICK IN RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE.
OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC
FLOW...ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...SCT -SHRA...MAINLY MOUNTAINS AND
AREAS NORTH OF U.S. 460. THE BEST OVERALL COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD COME WITH THIS
AFOREMENTIONED LOBE OF PVA AS THE UPPER LOW ROTATES TO A POSITION
JUST OFF THE DELMARVA BY WED EVENING. TOTAL QPF THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT 1/3 INCH NORTHERN GREENBRIER COUNTY TO TRACE
AMOUNTS AT BEST ACROSS MOST OF THE NC AND VA PIEDMONT COUNTIES.
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL SEE LESS THAN 1/10 INCH OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT. SLOW IMPROVEMENT CAN BE
EXPECTED THU AS THE UPPER LOW ROTATES BACK TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND...ALLOWING DRIER AIR FROM THE MIDWEST TO BEGIN TO SPREAD
INTO WESTERN AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER AND 850MB TEMPS HOVERING IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGIT
CENTIGRADE RANGE. THERE IS A POCKET OF NEAR 0C 850MB TEMPS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW THAT SETTLES DOWN OVER THE WESTERN PART
OF THE CWA EARLY THU...BUT THE CHANCE OF PCPN AT THAT TIME IN
THAT REGION IS NEAR ZERO...SO NO CONCERNS WITH WINTER
PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT...EVEN AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
WE MAY NEED TO ENTERTAIN FROST/FREEZE ADVISORIES LATE IN THE WEEK
ONCE AGAIN...BUT AGAIN APPEARS TO BE A MARGINAL SITUATION.

USED A MODEL BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...WITH MIN TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT MONDAY...

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION FRI-
SAT AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. INTO THE
EASTERN U.S. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL EFFECTIVELY SHUT OFF ALL
GULF MOISTURE FROM THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS WELL AS LOCKING
ANY REALLY COLD AIR WELL NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. A
WEAK...DRY UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE
REGION FRI-SAT...WHICH AT THIS POINT APPEARS TO DO LITTLE MORE
THAN BRING A FEW MID/HIGH CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL THEN DOMINATE FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR A CHANGE ALONG WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S WEST AND 70S
EAST. SHOULD BE A BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND FOR THE ENTIRE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT MONDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
OVERNIGHT AND TO THE COAST OF VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA
LATER THIS MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIN CIRRUS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST
THIS MORNING...AND COMBINED WITH VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS
PREVENTING ANY FOG FROM FORMATION IN TYPICAL FAVORED VALLEYS...SO
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS MORNING. A LIGHT COATING
OF FROST IS POSSIBLE ON PARKED AIRCRAFT EXPOSED TO THE ELEMENTS
OVERNIGHT INTO THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TODAY AND DAYTIME HEATING
BEGINS...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL START TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF OUR
NEXT APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. OCCASIONAL CIRRUS WILL STILL DRIFT
ACROSS THE REGION INITIALLY...AND THEN BY AFTERNOON AN INCREASE IN
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE FAR WEST. STILL VFR
CONDITIONS. THERE IS SOME HINT OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT SNEAKING INTO
THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS BY LATE AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD OFF AT THE
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AIRPORTS UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. EVEN SO...A
VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF RESULTING IN SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING...VISIBILITIES AND WIND FORECASTS
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND
DEEPEN INTO A NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE SLOW MOVEMENT NORTHEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR OUR REGION...THE MAIN IMPACT WITH BE A
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GUSTY WIND AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THAT
WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGION OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA. MVFR CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA TO LYH TO DAN
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE
CLOUDS IN WEST WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...FOR DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ009>015-
     018>020-023-024-034-035-045>047.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ007.
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ042>044.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...NF/RAB
AVIATION...KK



000
FXUS61 KRNK 200851
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
451 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA TODAY AND
CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AND THEN STALL AND
TRANSITION INTO AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. FOR OUR REGION THIS SERIES OF EVENTS WILL
RESULT IN INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...

FREEZE WARNINGS AND FROST ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM
THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE QUICKLY MELTING AWAY ANY FROST
AFTER SUNRISE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE AROUND
NOON...AND BE NEAR 10 MPH AT MOST LOCATIONS BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE INTO THIS AFTERNOON FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. LEANED HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON CLOSE TO THE ADJMETBC WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 50S IN
THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ALONG THE
APPALACHIAN CHAIN IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT.  THE
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE FOR
WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH A FEW OF THE HIGHER RIDGES MAY REMAIN IN THE
LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

FOCUS THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON A SLOW MOVING
CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...MEANDERING TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION WED-THU. AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF MODEL RUNS TAKING
THE CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
HAVE TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH ONCE AGAIN...BUT REMAINING FAR ENOUGH
EAST THAT IT WILL STILL LEAVE THE CWA ON THE DRIER SOUTHWEST SIDE
OF THE SYSTEM. THE PRIMARY...LEADING WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL TRACK FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT...THEN TUE INTO EARLY WED...THE UPPER LOW WILL DIVE TO ITS
SOUTHERN MOST POSITION...TOWARD EAST CENTRAL VA. IN SO DOING...THE
NEXT LOBE OF PVA WILL WILL TRACK FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION AND RESULT IN A SLIGHT UPTICK IN RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE.
OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC
FLOW...ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...SCT -SHRA...MAINLY MOUNTAINS AND
AREAS NORTH OF U.S. 460. THE BEST OVERALL COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD COME WITH THIS
AFOREMENTIONED LOBE OF PVA AS THE UPPER LOW ROTATES TO A POSITION
JUST OFF THE DELMARVA BY WED EVENING. TOTAL QPF THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT 1/3 INCH NORTHERN GREENBRIER COUNTY TO TRACE
AMOUNTS AT BEST ACROSS MOST OF THE NC AND VA PIEDMONT COUNTIES.
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL SEE LESS THAN 1/10 INCH OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT. SLOW IMPROVEMENT CAN BE
EXPECTED THU AS THE UPPER LOW ROTATES BACK TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND...ALLOWING DRIER AIR FROM THE MIDWEST TO BEGIN TO SPREAD
INTO WESTERN AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER AND 850MB TEMPS HOVERING IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGIT
CENTIGRADE RANGE. THERE IS A POCKET OF NEAR 0C 850MB TEMPS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW THAT SETTLES DOWN OVER THE WESTERN PART
OF THE CWA EARLY THU...BUT THE CHANCE OF PCPN AT THAT TIME IN
THAT REGION IS NEAR ZERO...SO NO CONCERNS WITH WINTER
PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT...EVEN AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
WE MAY NEED TO ENTERTAIN FROST/FREEZE ADVISORIES LATE IN THE WEEK
ONCE AGAIN...BUT AGAIN APPEARS TO BE A MARGINAL SITUATION.

USED A MODEL BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...WITH MIN TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT MONDAY...

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION FRI-
SAT AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. INTO THE
EASTERN U.S. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL EFFECTIVELY SHUT OFF ALL
GULF MOISTURE FROM THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS WELL AS LOCKING
ANY REALLY COLD AIR WELL NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. A
WEAK...DRY UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE
REGION FRI-SAT...WHICH AT THIS POINT APPEARS TO DO LITTLE MORE
THAN BRING A FEW MID/HIGH CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL THEN DOMINATE FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR A CHANGE ALONG WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S WEST AND 70S
EAST. SHOULD BE A BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND FOR THE ENTIRE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT MONDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
OVERNIGHT AND TO THE COAST OF VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA
LATER THIS MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIN CIRRUS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST
THIS MORNING...AND COMBINED WITH VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS
PREVENTING ANY FOG FROM FORMATION IN TYPICAL FAVORED VALLEYS...SO
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS MORNING. A LIGHT COATING
OF FROST IS POSSIBLE ON PARKED AIRCRAFT EXPOSED TO THE ELEMENTS
OVERNIGHT INTO THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TODAY AND DAYTIME HEATING
BEGINS...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL START TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF OUR
NEXT APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. OCCASIONAL CIRRUS WILL STILL DRIFT
ACROSS THE REGION INITIALLY...AND THEN BY AFTERNOON AN INCREASE IN
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE FAR WEST. STILL VFR
CONDITIONS. THERE IS SOME HINT OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT SNEAKING INTO
THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS BY LATE AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD OFF AT THE
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AIRPORTS UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. EVEN SO...A
VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF RESULTING IN SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING...VISIBILITIES AND WIND FORECASTS
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND
DEEPEN INTO A NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE SLOW MOVEMENT NORTHEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR OUR REGION...THE MAIN IMPACT WITH BE A
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GUSTY WIND AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THAT
WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGION OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA. MVFR CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA TO LYH TO DAN
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE
CLOUDS IN WEST WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...FOR DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ009>015-
     018>020-023-024-034-035-045>047.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ007.
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ042>044.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...NF/RAB
AVIATION...KK



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 200810
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
410 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFFSHORE TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOCATING OFF
THE NORTHEAST COAST FOR MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S INLAND TO LOW-MID 40S NEAR
THE COAST THANKS TO EXCEPTIONAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. CIRRUS HAVING
LITTLE IMPACT ON THE FALLING TEMPS...BUT DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER
30S HAVE RESULTED IN A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.
EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP ANOTHER DEG OR TWO THRU SUNRISE...WITH SOME
INLAND LOCALES WAKING UP TO FROST.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE TODAY...WITH SLY RETURN FLOW/WAA
COMMENCING. ALOFT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION INTO THE OH VALLEY...DOWNSTREAM OF AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE OVER
THE WRN CONUS. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT REACHES THE OH VALLEY LATE
TODAY. INCREASING WINDS ALOFT AND LEADWAVE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
PROVIDE DYNAMICAL FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE REGION...BUT DUE TO A
DRY AIR MASS PER BUFR SOUNDINGS AND PWATS AROUND 0.75 INCHES...WILL
ONLY SEE INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDS LATE TODAY. LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES INCREASE NEARLY 20 M TODAY THANKS TO SLY SFC WINDS OF
10-15 MPH AND SWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS. H85 TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 12C.
TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FLOW AMPLIFIES DURING THE SHORT TERM AS A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS
OVER THE ERN CONUS. ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES
TUES THANKS TO A 100+ KT JET STREAK DIVING SWD FROM S CNTRL CANADA.
AS A RESULT...UPPER LOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE NE STATES. THE UPPER LOW WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EWD TUES NIGHT
INTO WEDS...LOCATING OFFSHORE LATE WEDS. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW DROPS
INTO THE NE STATES TONIGHT WITH A ATTENDANT COLD FRONT REACHING THE
LOCAL AREA EARLY TUES MORNING. MEANWHILE...AN INVERTED
TROUGH/COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPS ALONG/JUST OFF THE SE/MID-ATLANTIC
COAST AS THE SFC HIGH PUSHES WELL OFFSHORE. SHORTWAVE/HEIGHT FALLS
AND INCREASING WINDS ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE
FRONT...BUT A MOISTURE STARVED AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN LITTLE MORE
THAN LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE NW LOCAL AREA. BEST COVERAGE OF LIGHT
SHOWERS EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT TUES MORNING. THE STACKED
LOW CROSSES THE AREA TUES...LOCATING JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
LATE TUES. VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE UVM OVER THE REGION...BUT THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP WILL BE NEAREST THE SFC LOW/BEST MOISTURE OVER THE N AND NE
LOCAL AREA. AS THE LOW LOCATES OFFSHORE TUES NIGHT...BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE ERN SHORE. MOSTLY CLOUDY-CLOUDY
CONDITIONS TUES ACROSS THE N-NE TO PARTLY CLOUDY SW. HIGHS TUES
PROGGED IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS
AS THE TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION SWING OFFSHORE. WL THEREFORE KEEP
FORECAST DRY WEST OF I-95 ON WED, WITH LOW CHC POP FARTHER EAST
FOR SOME SCT SHRAS OVER COASTAL AREAS/ERN SHORE. HIGHS WED
REMAIN BELOW CLIMO NUMBERS...GENERALLY IN THE L-M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WED NIGHT THRU
FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE POPS (~30%) ACROSS FAR EASTERN
ZONES WED NIGHT...LOWERING TO SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) OVER THE LOWER
MD EASTERN SHORE ON THURS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COASTAL LOW LATE IN THE COMING WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...PUSHING INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION NEXT SUNDAY. DRY WX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED.
HIGHS THU 60-65...THEN FRI-SUN IN THE MID/UPR 60S. LOWS IN THE 40S
TO LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY/VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT...JUST SOME INCREASING
MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACRS THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME S/SW TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTN.

OUTLOOK...NEXT FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
THEN LINGERS OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING ALONG
WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS. WINDS FROM THE NW ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
GUSTY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE NEAR TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD/MUCH
LIGHTER WINDS...AND COASTAL SEAS NOW 3-4 FT OR LESS THROUGHOUT THE
REGION. SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE LATER TODAY...ALLOWING
WINDS TO TURN TO THE S/SW. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT THIS
AFTN/EVENING...EXPECT SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH WIND SPEEDS
AVERAGING UP TO 15-20 KT ACRS NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...GENLY 10-15
KT ELSEWHERE. NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE WATERS LATE TUE
AFTN/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY EVENTUAL SCA CONDITIONS AS SFC LOW
PRESSURE THEN DEEPENS OFF THE COAST. WITH SYSTEM EXPECTED TO STALL
OFFSHORE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS IS LIKELY. WITH FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FROM THE NW...SEAS
WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...LKB






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 200810
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
410 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFFSHORE TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOCATING OFF
THE NORTHEAST COAST FOR MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S INLAND TO LOW-MID 40S NEAR
THE COAST THANKS TO EXCEPTIONAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. CIRRUS HAVING
LITTLE IMPACT ON THE FALLING TEMPS...BUT DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER
30S HAVE RESULTED IN A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.
EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP ANOTHER DEG OR TWO THRU SUNRISE...WITH SOME
INLAND LOCALES WAKING UP TO FROST.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE TODAY...WITH SLY RETURN FLOW/WAA
COMMENCING. ALOFT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION INTO THE OH VALLEY...DOWNSTREAM OF AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE OVER
THE WRN CONUS. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT REACHES THE OH VALLEY LATE
TODAY. INCREASING WINDS ALOFT AND LEADWAVE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
PROVIDE DYNAMICAL FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE REGION...BUT DUE TO A
DRY AIR MASS PER BUFR SOUNDINGS AND PWATS AROUND 0.75 INCHES...WILL
ONLY SEE INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDS LATE TODAY. LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES INCREASE NEARLY 20 M TODAY THANKS TO SLY SFC WINDS OF
10-15 MPH AND SWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS. H85 TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 12C.
TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FLOW AMPLIFIES DURING THE SHORT TERM AS A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS
OVER THE ERN CONUS. ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES
TUES THANKS TO A 100+ KT JET STREAK DIVING SWD FROM S CNTRL CANADA.
AS A RESULT...UPPER LOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE NE STATES. THE UPPER LOW WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EWD TUES NIGHT
INTO WEDS...LOCATING OFFSHORE LATE WEDS. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW DROPS
INTO THE NE STATES TONIGHT WITH A ATTENDANT COLD FRONT REACHING THE
LOCAL AREA EARLY TUES MORNING. MEANWHILE...AN INVERTED
TROUGH/COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPS ALONG/JUST OFF THE SE/MID-ATLANTIC
COAST AS THE SFC HIGH PUSHES WELL OFFSHORE. SHORTWAVE/HEIGHT FALLS
AND INCREASING WINDS ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE
FRONT...BUT A MOISTURE STARVED AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN LITTLE MORE
THAN LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE NW LOCAL AREA. BEST COVERAGE OF LIGHT
SHOWERS EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT TUES MORNING. THE STACKED
LOW CROSSES THE AREA TUES...LOCATING JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
LATE TUES. VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE UVM OVER THE REGION...BUT THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP WILL BE NEAREST THE SFC LOW/BEST MOISTURE OVER THE N AND NE
LOCAL AREA. AS THE LOW LOCATES OFFSHORE TUES NIGHT...BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE ERN SHORE. MOSTLY CLOUDY-CLOUDY
CONDITIONS TUES ACROSS THE N-NE TO PARTLY CLOUDY SW. HIGHS TUES
PROGGED IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS
AS THE TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION SWING OFFSHORE. WL THEREFORE KEEP
FORECAST DRY WEST OF I-95 ON WED, WITH LOW CHC POP FARTHER EAST
FOR SOME SCT SHRAS OVER COASTAL AREAS/ERN SHORE. HIGHS WED
REMAIN BELOW CLIMO NUMBERS...GENERALLY IN THE L-M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WED NIGHT THRU
FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE POPS (~30%) ACROSS FAR EASTERN
ZONES WED NIGHT...LOWERING TO SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) OVER THE LOWER
MD EASTERN SHORE ON THURS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COASTAL LOW LATE IN THE COMING WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...PUSHING INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION NEXT SUNDAY. DRY WX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED.
HIGHS THU 60-65...THEN FRI-SUN IN THE MID/UPR 60S. LOWS IN THE 40S
TO LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY/VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT...JUST SOME INCREASING
MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACRS THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME S/SW TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTN.

OUTLOOK...NEXT FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
THEN LINGERS OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING ALONG
WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS. WINDS FROM THE NW ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
GUSTY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE NEAR TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD/MUCH
LIGHTER WINDS...AND COASTAL SEAS NOW 3-4 FT OR LESS THROUGHOUT THE
REGION. SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE LATER TODAY...ALLOWING
WINDS TO TURN TO THE S/SW. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT THIS
AFTN/EVENING...EXPECT SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH WIND SPEEDS
AVERAGING UP TO 15-20 KT ACRS NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...GENLY 10-15
KT ELSEWHERE. NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE WATERS LATE TUE
AFTN/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY EVENTUAL SCA CONDITIONS AS SFC LOW
PRESSURE THEN DEEPENS OFF THE COAST. WITH SYSTEM EXPECTED TO STALL
OFFSHORE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS IS LIKELY. WITH FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FROM THE NW...SEAS
WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...LKB







000
FXUS61 KLWX 200800
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL
ENTER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT...PERSISTING OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
THE END OF THE WORKWEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

AS OF 07Z...1021MB SFC HIGH IS OVER SERN VA WITH A 1007MB SFC LOW
OVER THE UP OF MICHIGAN. MOSTLY TRANSPARENT CIRRUS HAVE MOVED OVER
THE ARE SO FAR TONIGHT...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE MID TO
UPR 30S FOR MOST INTERIOR LOCALES (INCLUDING SOUTHERN MARYLAND).

SINCE THE SFC HIGH WILL BE SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES...EXPECT A QUICK WARM UP AFTER SUNRISE IN RETURN FLOW.
WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE TODAY WITH SLY/SWLY FLOW GUSTING UP TO 20 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON. 925MB TEMPS AROUND 12C...MAX TEMPS MID TO UPR 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES LOW WILL CROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
AND LIGHT SHOWERS AHEAD PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH MAINLY WLY FLOW. THE DOWNSLOPE
WILL COUNTERACT THE HEIGHT FALLS. THEREFORE...WENT WITH SCATTERED
COVERAGE FOR POPS THROUGH THE DAY. MAX TEMPS LOWER THAN MONDAY NW OF
DC FROM CLOUD COVER. COULD IT 70F SE FROM DC SHOULD THE CLOUDS HOLD
OFF LONG ENOUGH.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THE 1ST PART OF THE XTND WL BE CONTROLLED BY THE CLOSED/VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW PRES AREA. MUCH OF THE RMDR WL BE INFLUENCED BY A
RETURN TO HIGH PRES.

TUE NGT AND WED SHOULD BE CLDY. "SHOWERY" MAY BE THE BEST WORD TO
DESCRIBE THIS PD. NOT RAINY...JUST PDS OF RAIN W/ RLVTLY LOW QPF.
TEMP-WISE NOT MUCH OF A DIURNAL VARIATION - LOWS IN THE U40S/HIGHS
IN THE MU50S.

THE LOW IS XPCTD TO SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARDS SRN NEW ENGLAND...W/ HIGH
PRES WORKING ITS WAY BACK INTO THE RGN ON NWRLY WINDS. BRZY/
BLUSTERY MIGHT BE GOOD WORDSTO DESCRIBE THU AS THE HIGHER PRES
BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLC. HIGHS RANGING FM THE U40S IN THE
HIGHLANDS TO THE L60S NEAR THE CHES BAY. MAJORITY OF THE AREA
SHOULD HV HIGHS IN THE 50S.

AFTR THAT A SLOW WARMING TREND SHOULD TAKE PLACE UNDER M SUNNY
DAYTIME SKIES LEADING INTO THE WKND. HIGH TEMPS FOR THE UPCOMING
WKND XPCTD TO BE IN THE M60S OVR MOST OF THE AREA. LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

VFR CONTINUES THROUGH TODAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH RETURN
SLY/SWLY FLOW GUSTING UP TO 18 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY WITH DOWNSLOPING WLY FLOW LIMITING RAIN
COVERAGE TO SCATTERED.

TUE NGT/WED XPCTD TO BE CLDY. HGTS WL PRBLY IN THE "LOW VFR
RANGE"...PSBLY DESCENDING INTO MVFR. SKIES SHOULD IMPRV THU AND FRI.

&&

.MARINE...

RETURN FLOW TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF SHORE. SCA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FOR MD BAY SOUTH OF POOLES ISLAND FOR SLY
CHANNELING UP TO 20 KT. WEAK COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT SHIFTS WINDS
WEST. WLY FLOW TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

SCA CONDS XPCTD WED NGT AND THU...PSBLY CONT INTO FRI.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ003>007-009-
     010-501-502.
VA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ025>031-
     036>040-042-050>053-501-502.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ503-504.
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ050>053-055-
     502>504.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ501-505-506.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

PRODUCTS...BAJ/WOODY!







000
FXUS61 KLWX 200800
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL
ENTER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT...PERSISTING OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
THE END OF THE WORKWEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

AS OF 07Z...1021MB SFC HIGH IS OVER SERN VA WITH A 1007MB SFC LOW
OVER THE UP OF MICHIGAN. MOSTLY TRANSPARENT CIRRUS HAVE MOVED OVER
THE ARE SO FAR TONIGHT...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE MID TO
UPR 30S FOR MOST INTERIOR LOCALES (INCLUDING SOUTHERN MARYLAND).

SINCE THE SFC HIGH WILL BE SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES...EXPECT A QUICK WARM UP AFTER SUNRISE IN RETURN FLOW.
WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE TODAY WITH SLY/SWLY FLOW GUSTING UP TO 20 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON. 925MB TEMPS AROUND 12C...MAX TEMPS MID TO UPR 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES LOW WILL CROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
AND LIGHT SHOWERS AHEAD PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH MAINLY WLY FLOW. THE DOWNSLOPE
WILL COUNTERACT THE HEIGHT FALLS. THEREFORE...WENT WITH SCATTERED
COVERAGE FOR POPS THROUGH THE DAY. MAX TEMPS LOWER THAN MONDAY NW OF
DC FROM CLOUD COVER. COULD IT 70F SE FROM DC SHOULD THE CLOUDS HOLD
OFF LONG ENOUGH.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THE 1ST PART OF THE XTND WL BE CONTROLLED BY THE CLOSED/VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW PRES AREA. MUCH OF THE RMDR WL BE INFLUENCED BY A
RETURN TO HIGH PRES.

TUE NGT AND WED SHOULD BE CLDY. "SHOWERY" MAY BE THE BEST WORD TO
DESCRIBE THIS PD. NOT RAINY...JUST PDS OF RAIN W/ RLVTLY LOW QPF.
TEMP-WISE NOT MUCH OF A DIURNAL VARIATION - LOWS IN THE U40S/HIGHS
IN THE MU50S.

THE LOW IS XPCTD TO SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARDS SRN NEW ENGLAND...W/ HIGH
PRES WORKING ITS WAY BACK INTO THE RGN ON NWRLY WINDS. BRZY/
BLUSTERY MIGHT BE GOOD WORDSTO DESCRIBE THU AS THE HIGHER PRES
BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLC. HIGHS RANGING FM THE U40S IN THE
HIGHLANDS TO THE L60S NEAR THE CHES BAY. MAJORITY OF THE AREA
SHOULD HV HIGHS IN THE 50S.

AFTR THAT A SLOW WARMING TREND SHOULD TAKE PLACE UNDER M SUNNY
DAYTIME SKIES LEADING INTO THE WKND. HIGH TEMPS FOR THE UPCOMING
WKND XPCTD TO BE IN THE M60S OVR MOST OF THE AREA. LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

VFR CONTINUES THROUGH TODAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH RETURN
SLY/SWLY FLOW GUSTING UP TO 18 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY WITH DOWNSLOPING WLY FLOW LIMITING RAIN
COVERAGE TO SCATTERED.

TUE NGT/WED XPCTD TO BE CLDY. HGTS WL PRBLY IN THE "LOW VFR
RANGE"...PSBLY DESCENDING INTO MVFR. SKIES SHOULD IMPRV THU AND FRI.

&&

.MARINE...

RETURN FLOW TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF SHORE. SCA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FOR MD BAY SOUTH OF POOLES ISLAND FOR SLY
CHANNELING UP TO 20 KT. WEAK COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT SHIFTS WINDS
WEST. WLY FLOW TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

SCA CONDS XPCTD WED NGT AND THU...PSBLY CONT INTO FRI.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ003>007-009-
     010-501-502.
VA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ025>031-
     036>040-042-050>053-501-502.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ503-504.
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ050>053-055-
     502>504.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ501-505-506.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

PRODUCTS...BAJ/WOODY!








000
FXUS61 KRNK 200536
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
136 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER...AND THEN
EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON MONDAY...CROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...AND THEN STALL AND TRANSITION INTO AN UPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY WEDNESDAY. FOR
OUR REGION THIS SERIES OF EVENTS WILL RESULT IN INCREASED CHANCES
OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT MONDAY...

MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES AND LOW TEMPERATURES
FOR THIS MORNING. SLOWED THE ADVANCE EAST OF THE HIGH CLOUDS WITH
DRY AIRMASS ACROSS OUR REGION. FREEZE WARNINGS AND FROST
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING.

AS OF 1035 PM EDT SUNDAY...

GIVEN QUICK TEMP FALLS ACROSS THE WEST INCLUDING THE NW NC
MOUNTAINS HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INCLUDED ALL OF GREENBRIER COUNTY
WITHIN THE FREEZE WARNING AS WELL AS TAZEWELL COUNTY. ALSO
INCLUDING MERCER CTY ALONG WITH GRAYSON...ASHE AND WATAUGA INTO
THE FROST ADVISORY SINCE MOST CIRRUS TO THE WEST APPEAR TO BE
FADING WITH WINDS REMAINING QUITE LIGHT. OTRW OTHER THAN LOWERING
TEMPS FEW OTHER CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 815 PM EDT SUNDAY...

MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES WITH EXTENT OF FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT GIVEN VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE PER 00Z RAOB AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS. THIS HAS ALREADY ALLOWED A QUICK
DROP IN EVENING TEMPS AND EXPECT READINGS TO CHASE THE DEWPOINT
ESPCLY VALLEYS AND OUTLYING AREAS FOR MUCH OF NIGHT. HOWEVER
APPROACH OF HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST OF CONCERN IN CAUSING
READINGS TO STEADY OUT SOME MOUNTAINS WHILE THINKING LESS OUT EAST
WHERE THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE WILL END UP OVERNIGHT. MIXING ALSO TO
INCREASE ON THE RIDGES AS WARM ADVECTION QUICKLY PICKS UP ALOFT
MAKING THINGS TRICKY FOR COVERAGE OF FROST OR FREEZING CONDITIONS
ACROSS MANY OF THE COUNTIES. ACTUALLY THINK PARTS OF THE EAST HAVE
THE BEST SHOT AT SEEING MORE FROST DESPITE DRYNESS SO ADDED A FEW
MORE COUNTIES TO THE ADVISORY WHILE KEEPING ROANOKE AND BLUEFIELD
OUT WITH MORE PATCHY VALLEY COVERAGE THERE. ALSO ADDED MORE FROST
INTO SOUTHSIDE VA AS WELL AS THE HIGHER VALLEYS ACROSS THE NW
NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. OTRW LITTLE CHANGE TO THE HEADLINES WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE MAY ACTUALLY SEE READINGS ON THE RIDGES
RISE LATE. THUS BUMPED UP LOWS AT ELEVATION WHILE LOWERING VALLEYS
WHERE SOME BRIEF 20S POSSIBLE.

ON MONDAY...ANY FROST WILL QUICKLY MELT AFTER SUNRISE. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE AROUND NOON...AND BE NEAR 10 MPH AT
MOST LOCATIONS BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH. WE ARE EXPECTING
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE MAY BE SCATTERED OVER SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. HIGHS ON
MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH MID TO UPPER 60S COMMON ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SUNDAY...

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ALONG THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT. SHOWERS WILL INITIALLY KICK
OFF IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING...WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
THEN PASSING EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT BY MIDNIGHT. THE SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE FOR WARMER OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY HOLDING
IN THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH A FEW OF THE HIGHER RIDGES WILL
REMAIN IN THE LOW 50S.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LATE MONDAY NIGHT...
WINDS WILL SHIFT WESTERLY AND MORE DOWNSLOPE. THIS WILL CAUSE SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO BRIEFLY DIMINISH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...UNTIL THE COLD
FRONT BEGINS TO ENTER AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH THE FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES
BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL ALLOW UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ALONG OUR WESTERN RIDGES...AND SPILL INTO THE PIEDMONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD DURING
THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL THEN GRADUALLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM EAST
TO WEST DURING THE EVENING...WITH ONLY RESIDUAL SHOWERS REMAINING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE TUESDAY
NIGHT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT...SO
MAY SEE A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN BEFORE TEMPERATURES
WARM AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY THANKS TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...SHOWERS
WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END...WITH CLEARING SKIES...AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT SUNDAY...

EXPECT A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY...
MAINTAINING A LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA. MAIN
CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE POCKETS OF FROST IN SOME OF THE
DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS THURSDAY NIGHT AS WINDS DECOUPLE...AND
POSSIBLY RIVER VALLEY FOG FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS. TEMPERATURES
WILL GO THROUGH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AS UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT MONDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
OVERNIGHT AND TO THE COAST OF VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA
LATER THIS MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIN CIRRUS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST
THIS MORNING...AND COMBINED WITH VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS
PREVENTING ANY FOG FROM FORMATION IN TYPICAL FAVORED VALLEYS...SO
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS MORNING. A LIGHT COATING
OF FROST IS POSSIBLE ON PARKED AIRCRAFT EXPOSED TO THE ELEMENTS
OVERNIGHT INTO THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TODAY AND DAYTIME HEATING
BEGINS...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL START TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF OUR
NEXT APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. OCCASIONAL CIRRUS WILL STILL DRIFT
ACROSS THE REGION INITIALLY...AND THEN BY AFTERNOON AN INCREASE IN
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE FAR WEST. STILL VFR
CONDITIONS. THERE IS SOME HINT OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT SNEAKING INTO
THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS BY LATE AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD OFF AT THE
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AIRPORTS UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. EVEN SO...A
VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF RESULTING IN SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING...VISIBILITIES AND WIND FORECASTS
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND
DEEPEN INTO A NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE SLOW MOVEMENT NORTHEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR OUR REGION...THE MAIN IMPACT WITH BE A
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GUSTY WIND AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THAT
WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGION OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA. MVFR CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA TO LYH TO DAN
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE
CLOUDS IN WEST WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...FOR DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ009>015-
     018>020-023-024-034-035-045>047.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ007.
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ042>044.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/JH/KK
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...DS/KK/SK




000
FXUS61 KRNK 200536
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
136 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER...AND THEN
EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON MONDAY...CROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...AND THEN STALL AND TRANSITION INTO AN UPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY WEDNESDAY. FOR
OUR REGION THIS SERIES OF EVENTS WILL RESULT IN INCREASED CHANCES
OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT MONDAY...

MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES AND LOW TEMPERATURES
FOR THIS MORNING. SLOWED THE ADVANCE EAST OF THE HIGH CLOUDS WITH
DRY AIRMASS ACROSS OUR REGION. FREEZE WARNINGS AND FROST
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING.

AS OF 1035 PM EDT SUNDAY...

GIVEN QUICK TEMP FALLS ACROSS THE WEST INCLUDING THE NW NC
MOUNTAINS HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INCLUDED ALL OF GREENBRIER COUNTY
WITHIN THE FREEZE WARNING AS WELL AS TAZEWELL COUNTY. ALSO
INCLUDING MERCER CTY ALONG WITH GRAYSON...ASHE AND WATAUGA INTO
THE FROST ADVISORY SINCE MOST CIRRUS TO THE WEST APPEAR TO BE
FADING WITH WINDS REMAINING QUITE LIGHT. OTRW OTHER THAN LOWERING
TEMPS FEW OTHER CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 815 PM EDT SUNDAY...

MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES WITH EXTENT OF FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT GIVEN VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE PER 00Z RAOB AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS. THIS HAS ALREADY ALLOWED A QUICK
DROP IN EVENING TEMPS AND EXPECT READINGS TO CHASE THE DEWPOINT
ESPCLY VALLEYS AND OUTLYING AREAS FOR MUCH OF NIGHT. HOWEVER
APPROACH OF HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST OF CONCERN IN CAUSING
READINGS TO STEADY OUT SOME MOUNTAINS WHILE THINKING LESS OUT EAST
WHERE THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE WILL END UP OVERNIGHT. MIXING ALSO TO
INCREASE ON THE RIDGES AS WARM ADVECTION QUICKLY PICKS UP ALOFT
MAKING THINGS TRICKY FOR COVERAGE OF FROST OR FREEZING CONDITIONS
ACROSS MANY OF THE COUNTIES. ACTUALLY THINK PARTS OF THE EAST HAVE
THE BEST SHOT AT SEEING MORE FROST DESPITE DRYNESS SO ADDED A FEW
MORE COUNTIES TO THE ADVISORY WHILE KEEPING ROANOKE AND BLUEFIELD
OUT WITH MORE PATCHY VALLEY COVERAGE THERE. ALSO ADDED MORE FROST
INTO SOUTHSIDE VA AS WELL AS THE HIGHER VALLEYS ACROSS THE NW
NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. OTRW LITTLE CHANGE TO THE HEADLINES WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE MAY ACTUALLY SEE READINGS ON THE RIDGES
RISE LATE. THUS BUMPED UP LOWS AT ELEVATION WHILE LOWERING VALLEYS
WHERE SOME BRIEF 20S POSSIBLE.

ON MONDAY...ANY FROST WILL QUICKLY MELT AFTER SUNRISE. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE AROUND NOON...AND BE NEAR 10 MPH AT
MOST LOCATIONS BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH. WE ARE EXPECTING
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE MAY BE SCATTERED OVER SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. HIGHS ON
MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH MID TO UPPER 60S COMMON ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SUNDAY...

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ALONG THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT. SHOWERS WILL INITIALLY KICK
OFF IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING...WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
THEN PASSING EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT BY MIDNIGHT. THE SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE FOR WARMER OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY HOLDING
IN THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH A FEW OF THE HIGHER RIDGES WILL
REMAIN IN THE LOW 50S.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LATE MONDAY NIGHT...
WINDS WILL SHIFT WESTERLY AND MORE DOWNSLOPE. THIS WILL CAUSE SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO BRIEFLY DIMINISH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...UNTIL THE COLD
FRONT BEGINS TO ENTER AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH THE FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES
BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL ALLOW UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ALONG OUR WESTERN RIDGES...AND SPILL INTO THE PIEDMONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD DURING
THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL THEN GRADUALLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM EAST
TO WEST DURING THE EVENING...WITH ONLY RESIDUAL SHOWERS REMAINING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE TUESDAY
NIGHT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT...SO
MAY SEE A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN BEFORE TEMPERATURES
WARM AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY THANKS TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...SHOWERS
WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END...WITH CLEARING SKIES...AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT SUNDAY...

EXPECT A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY...
MAINTAINING A LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA. MAIN
CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE POCKETS OF FROST IN SOME OF THE
DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS THURSDAY NIGHT AS WINDS DECOUPLE...AND
POSSIBLY RIVER VALLEY FOG FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS. TEMPERATURES
WILL GO THROUGH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AS UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT MONDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
OVERNIGHT AND TO THE COAST OF VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA
LATER THIS MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIN CIRRUS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST
THIS MORNING...AND COMBINED WITH VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS
PREVENTING ANY FOG FROM FORMATION IN TYPICAL FAVORED VALLEYS...SO
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS MORNING. A LIGHT COATING
OF FROST IS POSSIBLE ON PARKED AIRCRAFT EXPOSED TO THE ELEMENTS
OVERNIGHT INTO THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TODAY AND DAYTIME HEATING
BEGINS...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL START TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF OUR
NEXT APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. OCCASIONAL CIRRUS WILL STILL DRIFT
ACROSS THE REGION INITIALLY...AND THEN BY AFTERNOON AN INCREASE IN
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE FAR WEST. STILL VFR
CONDITIONS. THERE IS SOME HINT OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT SNEAKING INTO
THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS BY LATE AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD OFF AT THE
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AIRPORTS UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. EVEN SO...A
VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF RESULTING IN SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING...VISIBILITIES AND WIND FORECASTS
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND
DEEPEN INTO A NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE SLOW MOVEMENT NORTHEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR OUR REGION...THE MAIN IMPACT WITH BE A
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GUSTY WIND AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THAT
WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGION OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA. MVFR CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA TO LYH TO DAN
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE
CLOUDS IN WEST WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...FOR DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ009>015-
     018>020-023-024-034-035-045>047.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ007.
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ042>044.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/JH/KK
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...DS/KK/SK



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