000
FXUS61 KAKQ 192222
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
622 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES ANCHORED WELL OFF THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BECOME MORE WIDELY SCATTERED AFTER MONDAY...WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES PREVAILING THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES LATE THURSDAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
ADDED FOG TO COASTAL WATERS N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND AS WELL AS THE
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WORCESTER MD AND ACCOMACK VA THROUGH 9PM AS
RELATIVELY LIGHT SE FLOW OFF THE CHILLY WATERS IS LEADING TO LOW
CLOUDS AND VSBYS < 1 SM AT OXB.

A RATHER DIFFUSE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES FROM KENTUCKY TO THE
CAROLINAS. A DEEP TROUGH WAS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A SMALL
RIDGE WAS IN BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES. AS THE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS
STATES CONTINUES TO PRESS EAST...THE UPPER LOW JUST TO OUR WEST AND
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL DISSIPATE. A BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL
BEGIN TO DOMINATE THE AREA WEATHER TOWARD MID WEEK.

THE FRONT THAT HAS BEEN OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA FOR THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS IS STILL RATHER DIFFUSE. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT
IT HAS MOVED INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES ON MONDAY.

A VORT LOBE AS INDICATED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
A BAND OF TSTMS MOVING INTO OUR SOUTHERN PIEDMONT COUNTIES. THIS
AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS WITH LIKELY POPS THROUGH 04Z. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE AND KEPT CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT THE
OVERNIGHT.

SOME PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN MONDAY MORNING...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64 AND ON THE MARYLAND
EASTERN SHORE. WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED AS THE FOG
SHOULD MAINLY DEVELOP FROM LOWERING STRATUS.

LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING ARE FORECAST TO RANGE THROUGH THE
60S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DISSIPATING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A BIT
MORE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED WHICH WILL RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAN WAS EXPERIENCED SUNDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ACTIVITY MOVING RATHER SLOWLY. HAVE
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA
AND INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES EAST TO NEAR THE CHOWAN RIVER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SUNDAY WITH READINGS
GENERALLY AROUND 80 INLAND AND THE LOW TO MID 70S AT THE COAST.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY OUT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES BEGINS TO DOMINATE.
HIGHEST POPS (SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS) WILL BE IN SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA
AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AT 30 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPR 80S IN MOST AREAS WITH UPR 70S
TO LWR 80S NEAR THE COAST AND OVER THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY LATE TUESDAY EVENING.

FOR WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH POPS. WITH NO
STRONG TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION OR INDICATIONS OF WHERE CONVECTION
WILL FOCUS...KEPT POPS AT 30 PERCENT THROUGHOUT THE CWA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT IS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF WED NGT WITH A CHC FOR RAIN...MAINLY
WEST OF I-95...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LVL TROF AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRNT. S/SW FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPR 60S. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THU/THU NGT WITH STILL A
30-40% CHC FOR SHWRS/TSTMS. DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE IS ABUNDANT HOWEVER
FORCING IS A LIMITING FACTOR DUE TO A LACK OF WAA AND MOST S/W
ENERGY STAYING OFF TO THE NORTH. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO SPEED UP
THE TIMING OF THE FRNT...WITH THE FROPA NOW EXPECTED TO BE SOMETIME
LATE THU/THU NGT. HIGHS THU IN THE LO TO MID 80S. BEHIND THE FRNT FRI
INTO THE WEEKEND...DIMINISHING CHCS FOR RAIN AND SLGTLY LWR TEMPS
(BUT STILL AROUND SEASONAL NORMS) WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LWR
80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM ECG TO ORF AND SOUTH OF RIC. EXPECT
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS AT RIC INTO THIS EVENING WITH A FEW SHOWERS
MOVING THROUGH AFTER 19Z. AT ORF CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR
UNTIL HEAVIER SHOWERS REACH THE AIRPORT AROUND 19Z REDUCING VSBY
TO MVFR AND PERHAPS EVEN TEMPORARILY IFR. NELY FLOW AT ORF IS DUE
TO A WEAK BAY BREEZE AND WILL BECOME SLY THIS EVENING. JUST TO THE
NORTH PHF HAS BEEN SLOW TO IMPROVE AND WILL REMAIN MVFR FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SBY HAS CONTINUE TO SEE IFR CONDITIONS BUT
THIS WILL TEMPORARILY IMPROVE TO MVFR BY THIS EVENING BEFORE
RETURNING TO IFR OVERNIGHT.

SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING OVERNIGHT OUTSIDE OF A
FEW STRAY SHOWERS HERE AND THERE. DESPITE MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
KEEPING CONDITIONS ABOVE IFR DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CONTINUES BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION EXPECT IFR CEILINGS AND FOG TO
RE-DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES. THESE IFR CONDITIONS WILL
LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING IMPROVING SLOWLY THROUGH MID MORNING.
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH MORE COVERAGE OF HEAVY SHOWERS THAN COMPARED TO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SE FLOW PREVAILS TNGT AS A WARM FRNT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. HIRES
MODELS SHOW A QUICK SHOT OF SCA WINDS OVER THE BAY LATER THIS
AFTN/EVENG...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENUF OR LONG LASTING ENUF TO ISSUE A
SCA HEADLINE FOR THIS ATTM. WINDS STAY GENRLY 10-15 KT OVRNGT AND
SHIFT FROM SE TO S. SEAS WILL APPROACH 4-5 FT OUT 20 NM OVER COASTAL
WATERS...WITH BEST CHC FOR 5+ FT OVER THE NORTHERN TWO ZONES WHERE
SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE THRU THE OVRNGT HRS. 12Z WAVEWATCH SHOWS 5 FT
SEAS THERE LASTING INTO MON AND MON NGT...BUT WITH WAVEWATCH
RUNNING HIGH DURING SOUTHERLY FLOW AS OF LATE...WILL END THE SCA AT
4 AM TNGT WITH THE NEXT SHIFT EITHER EXPIRING THE HAZARD OR
EXTENDING IT OUT IN TIME. OTW...SUB-SCA SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT WHICH CROSSES
THE AREA LATE THU/THU NGT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER LEVEL FORECASTS HAVE BEEN LOWERED SUBSTANTIALLY DUE TO LACK
OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN THE HEADWATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/LSA
SHORT TERM...LSA
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JAO
MARINE...MAS
HYDROLOGY...

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 192118
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
518 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES ANCHORED WELL OFF THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BECOME MORE WIDELY SCATTERED AFTER MONDAY...WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES PREVAILING THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES LATE THURSDAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A RATHER DIFFUSE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES FROM KENTUCKY TO THE
CAROLINAS. A DEEP TROUGH WAS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A SMALL
RIDGE WAS IN BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES. AS THE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS
STATES CONTINUES TO PRESS EAST...THE UPPER LOW JUST TO OUR WEST AND
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL DISSIPATE. A BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL
BEGIN TO DOMINATE THE AREA WEATHER TOWARD MID WEEK.

THE FRONT THAT HAS BEEN OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA FOR THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS IS STILL RATHER DIFFUSE. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT
IT HAS MOVED INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES ON MONDAY.

A VORT LOBE AS INDICATED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
A BAND OF TSTMS MOVING INTO OUR SOUTHERN PIEDMONT COUNTIES. THIS
AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS WITH LIKELY POPS THROUGH 04Z. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE AND KEPT CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT THE
OVERNIGHT.

SOME PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN MONDAY MORNING...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64 AND ON THE MARYLAND
EASTERN SHORE. WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED AS THE FOG
SHOULD MAINLY DEVELOP FROM LOWERING STRATUS.

LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING ARE FORECAST TO RANGE THROUGH THE
60S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DISSIPATING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A BIT
MORE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED WHICH WILL RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAN WAS EXPERIENCED SUNDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ACTIVITY MOVING RATHER SLOWLY. HAVE
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA
AND INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES EAST TO NEAR THE CHOWAN RIVER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SUNDAY WITH READINGS
GENERALLY AROUND 80 INLAND AND THE LOW TO MID 70S AT THE COAST.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY OUT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES BEGINS TO DOMINATE.
HIGHEST POPS (SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS) WILL BE IN SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA
AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AT 30 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPR 80S IN MOST AREAS WITH UPR 70S
TO LWR 80S NEAR THE COAST AND OVER THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY LATE TUESDAY EVENING.

FOR WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH POPS. WITH NO
STRONG TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION OR INDICATIONS OF WHERE CONVECTION
WILL FOCUS...KEPT POPS AT 30 PERCENT THROUGHOUT THE CWA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT IS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF WED NGT WITH A CHC FOR RAIN...MAINLY
WEST OF I-95...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LVL TROF AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRNT. S/SW FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPR 60S. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THU/THU NGT WITH STILL A
30-40% CHC FOR SHWRS/TSTMS. DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE IS ABUNDANT HOWEVER
FORCING IS A LIMITING FACTOR DUE TO A LACK OF WAA AND MOST S/W
ENERGY STAYING OFF TO THE NORTH. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO SPEED UP
THE TIMING OF THE FRNT...WITH THE FROPA NOW EXPECTED TO BE SOMETIME
LATE THU/THU NGT. HIGHS THU IN THE LO TO MID 80S. BEHIND THE FRNT FRI
INTO THE WEEKEND...DIMINISHING CHCS FOR RAIN AND SLGTLY LWR TEMPS
(BUT STILL AROUND SEASONAL NORMS) WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LWR
80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM ECG TO ORF AND SOUTH OF RIC. EXPECT
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS AT RIC INTO THIS EVENING WITH A FEW SHOWERS
MOVING THROUGH AFTER 19Z. AT ORF CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR
UNTIL HEAVIER SHOWERS REACH THE AIRPORT AROUND 19Z REDUCING VSBY
TO MVFR AND PERHAPS EVEN TEMPORARILY IFR. NELY FLOW AT ORF IS DUE
TO A WEAK BAY BREEZE AND WILL BECOME SLY THIS EVENING. JUST TO THE
NORTH PHF HAS BEEN SLOW TO IMPROVE AND WILL REMAIN MVFR FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SBY HAS CONTINUE TO SEE IFR CONDITIONS BUT
THIS WILL TEMPORARILY IMPROVE TO MVFR BY THIS EVENING BEFORE
RETURNING TO IFR OVERNIGHT.

SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING OVERNIGHT OUTSIDE OF A
FEW STRAY SHOWERS HERE AND THERE. DESPITE MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
KEEPING CONDITIONS ABOVE IFR DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CONTINUES BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION EXPECT IFR CEILINGS AND FOG TO
RE-DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES. THESE IFR CONDITIONS WILL
LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING IMPROVING SLOWLY THROUGH MID MORNING.
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH MORE COVERAGE OF HEAVY SHOWERS THAN COMPARED TO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SE FLOW PREVAILS TNGT AS A WARM FRNT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. HIRES
MODELS SHOW A QUICK SHOT OF SCA WINDS OVER THE BAY LATER THIS
AFTN/EVENG...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENUF OR LONG LASTING ENUF TO ISSUE A
SCA HEADLINE FOR THIS ATTM. WINDS STAY GENRLY 10-15 KT OVRNGT AND
SHIFT FROM SE TO S. SEAS WILL APPROACH 4-5 FT OUT 20 NM OVER COASTAL
WATERS...WITH BEST CHC FOR 5+ FT OVER THE NORTHERN TWO ZONES WHERE
SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE THRU THE OVRNGT HRS. 12Z WAVEWATCH SHOWS 5 FT
SEAS THERE LASTING INTO MON AND MON NGT...BUT WITH WAVEWATCH
RUNNING HIGH DURING SOUTHERLY FLOW AS OF LATE...WILL END THE SCA AT
4 AM TNGT WITH THE NEXT SHIFT EITHER EXPIRING THE HAZARD OR
EXTENDING IT OUT IN TIME. OTW...SUB-SCA SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT WHICH CROSSES
THE AREA LATE THU/THU NGT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER LEVEL FORECASTS HAVE BEEN LOWERED SUBSTANTIALLY DUE TO LACK
OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN THE HEADWATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB/LSA
NEAR TERM...LSA
SHORT TERM...LSA
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JAO
MARINE...MAS
HYDROLOGY...

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 192001
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
401 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT OVER SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND LIFTING SLOWLY NORTH AND WILL
DISSIPATE ACROSS MARYLAND ON MONDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL DOMINATE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AROUND
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A RATHER DIFFUSE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES FROM KENTUCKY TO THE
CAROLINAS. A DEEP TROUGH WAS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A SMALL
RIDGE WAS IN BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES. AS THE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS
STATES CONTINUES TO PRESS EAST...THE UPPER LOW JUST TO OUR WEST AND
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL DISSIPATE. A BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL
BEGIN TO DOMINATE THE AREA WEATHER TOWARD MID WEEK.

THE FRONT THAT HAS BEEN OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA FOR THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS IS STILL RATHER DIFFUSE. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT
IT HAS MOVED INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES ON MONDAY.

A VORT LOBE AS INDICATED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
A BAND OF TSTMS MOVING INTO OUR SOUTHERN PIEDMONT COUNTIES. THIS
AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS WITH LIKELY POPS THROUGH 04Z. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE AND KEPT CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT THE
OVERNIGHT.

SOME PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN MONDAY MORNING...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64 AND ON THE MARYLAND
EASTERN SHORE. WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED AS THE FOG
SHOULD MAINLY DEVELOP FROM LOWERING STRATUS.

LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING ARE FORECAST TO RANGE THROUGH THE
60S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DISSIPATING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A BIT
MORE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED WHICH WILL RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAN WAS EXPERIENCED SUNDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ACTIVITY MOVING RATHER SLOWLY. HAVE
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA
AND INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES EAST TO NEAR THE CHOWAN RIVER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SUNDAY WITH READINGS
GENERALLY AROUND 80 INLAND AND THE LOW TO MID 70S AT THE COAST.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY OUT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES BEGINS TO DOMINATE.
HIGHEST POPS (SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS) WILL BE IN SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA
AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AT 30 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPR 80S IN MOST AREAS WITH UPR 70S
TO LWR 80S NEAR THE COAST AND OVER THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY LATE TUESDAY EVENING.

FOR WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH POPS. WITH NO
STRONG TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION OR INDICATIONS OF WHERE CONVECTION
WILL FOCUS...KEPT POPS AT 30 PERCENT THROUGHOUT THE CWA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT IS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF WED NGT WITH A CHC FOR RAIN...MAINLY
WEST OF I-95...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LVL TROF AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRNT. S/SW FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPR 60S. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THU/THU NGT WITH STILL A
30-40% CHC FOR SHWRS/TSTMS. DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE IS ABUNDANT HOWEVER
FORCING IS A LIMITING FACTOR DUE TO A LACK OF WAA AND MOST S/W
ENERGY STAYING OFF TO THE NORTH. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO SPEED UP
THE TIMING OF THE FRNT...WITH THE FROPA NOW EXPECTED TO BE SOMETIME
LATE THU/THU NGT. HIGHS THU IN THE LO TO MID 80S. BEHIND THE FRNT FRI
INTO THE WEEKEND...DIMINISHING CHCS FOR RAIN AND SLGTLY LWR TEMPS
(BUT STILL AROUND SEASONAL NORMS) WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LWR
80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM ECG TO ORF AND SOUTH OF RIC. EXPECT
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS AT RIC INTO THIS EVENING WITH A FEW SHOWERS
MOVING THROUGH AFTER 19Z. AT ORF CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR
UNTIL HEAVIER SHOWERS REACH THE AIRPORT AROUND 19Z REDUCING VSBY
TO MVFR AND PERHAPS EVEN TEMPORARILY IFR. NELY FLOW AT ORF IS DUE
TO A WEAK BAY BREEZE AND WILL BECOME SLY THIS EVENING. JUST TO THE
NORTH PHF HAS BEEN SLOW TO IMPROVE AND WILL REMAIN MVFR FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SBY HAS CONTINUE TO SEE IFR CONDITIONS BUT
THIS WILL TEMPORARILY IMPROVE TO MVFR BY THIS EVENING BEFORE
RETURNING TO IFR OVERNIGHT.

SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING OVERNIGHT OUTSIDE OF A
FEW STRAY SHOWERS HERE AND THERE. DESPITE MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
KEEPING CONDITIONS ABOVE IFR DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CONTINUES BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION EXPECT IFR CEILINGS AND FOG TO
RE-DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES. THESE IFR CONDITIONS WILL
LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING IMPROVING SLOWLY THROUGH MID MORNING.
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH MORE COVERAGE OF HEAVY SHOWERS THAN COMPARED TO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SE FLOW PREVAILS TNGT AS A WARM FRNT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. HIRES
MODELS SHOW A QUICK SHOT OF SCA WINDS OVER THE BAY LATER THIS
AFTN/EVENG...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENUF OR LONG LASTING ENUF TO ISSUE A
SCA HEADLINE FOR THIS ATTM. WINDS STAY GENRLY 10-15 KT OVRNGT AND
SHIFT FROM SE TO S. SEAS WILL APPROACH 4-5 FT OUT 20 NM OVER COASTAL
WATERS...WITH BEST CHC FOR 5+ FT OVER THE NORTHERN TWO ZONES WHERE
SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE THRU THE OVRNGT HRS. 12Z WAVEWATCH SHOWS 5 FT
SEAS THERE LASTING INTO MON AND MON NGT...BUT WITH WAVEWATCH
RUNNING HIGH DURING SOUTHERLY FLOW AS OF LATE...WILL END THE SCA AT
4 AM TNGT WITH THE NEXT SHIFT EITHER EXPIRING THE HAZARD OR
EXTENDING IT OUT IN TIME. OTW...SUB-SCA SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT WHICH CROSSES
THE AREA LATE THU/THU NGT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER LEVEL FORECASTS HAVE BEEN LOWERED SUBSTANTIALLY DUE TO LACK
OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN THE HEADWATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LSA
NEAR TERM...LSA
SHORT TERM...LSA
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JAO
MARINE...MAS
HYDROLOGY...

000
FXUS61 KRNK 191950
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
350 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...RESULTING IN ROUNDS OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
TUESDAY. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON MONDAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SUNDAY...

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BECOME SCATTERED ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH RADAR INDICATING A FEW OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. CELL MOVEMENT ACROSS
THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS INTO THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE HAS BEEN
SLOW DUE TO VERY LIGHT WINDS ALOFT NEAR THE BASE OF THE
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS AREA
CLOSELY THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF FLASH
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE CELLS BEGIN TO TRAIN. FURTHER
EAST...STEERING WINDS ARE A LITTLE STRONGER...CAUSING CELLS TO
MOVE MORE QUICKLY.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THIS AFTERNOON THAT THE MAJORITY OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT MORE TOWARD THE
PIEDMONTS DURING THE EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES
EAST. INTENSITY OF RAINFALL WILL BEGIN TO WANE AFTER SUNSET AS
HEATING ENDS...WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH DIMINISHING CLOUD
COVER...LIGHT WINDS...AND VERY MOIST CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA...BELIEVE THAT FOG WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ONCE AGAIN...AND
DENSE IN A FEW AREAS. HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR
MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOW 60S...WITH A FEW UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS.

THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTHSIDE
VIRGINIA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WILL SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOP WITH
DAYTIME HEATING THAT WILL BE SPOTTY IN NATURE...BUT DO NOT EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS TODAY...MORE CONFINED TO THE
PIEDMONTS ALTHOUGH WILL ALSO SEE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE RIDGES.
EXPECT BETTER HEATING WITH THE DECREASED CLOUD COVER FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT SUNDAY...

SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF MONDAY
NIGHT. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
IN THE PIEDMONT. AFTER MIDNIGHT CUT BACK POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN
THE EAST. WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW...IT WILL BE MILD MONDAY NIGHT WITH
READINGS FROM THE MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE
SOUTHEAST.

MID-LVL RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD TUESDAY AFTER THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXITS THE REGION. WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT AND ABSENCE OF ORGANIZED LIFT
TRANSLATES TO LESS COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. PLAYED THE HIGHEST POPS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE
PIEDMONT. WARM AND MUGGY TUESDAY NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE
60S.

WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH...WILL PROVIDE SOME LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT SUNDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL SPIN AROUND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM...PLENTY
OF MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION.

PIECES OF ENERGY WILL SPIRAL EASTWARD FROM THE MAIN SYSTEM AND
COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO CREATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HPC CONTINUES TO FAVOR A SLOWER TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO EXIT OUR AREA FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ECMWF
REMAINS FASTER THAN GFS WITH TIMING OF COLD FRONT. DO NOT BELIEVE
THE SFC LOW THAT DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST ON GFS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY AND SLIDE EAST ON
SUNDAY.

COOLING TREND EXPECT FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 70 DEGREES IN THE WEST TO NEAR 80 DEGREES
IN THE SOUTHEAST. SATURDAY HIGHS ONLY REACH THE MID 60S ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. HIGHS FOR
SUNDAY WILL WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE MID 60S IN THE WEST
TO THE MID 70S IN THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 155 AM EDT SUNDAY...

RADAR INDICATING SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITH AFTERNOON HEATING
AREAWIDE. CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS HAS BEEN LESS
WIDESPREAD AS DRIER AIR BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...WHICH HAS LEAD
TO GREATER SURFACE HEATING. THEREFORE...WILL KEEPING AN EYE ON
STRONGER SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING IN THIS MORE UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT...WITH SHOWERS INTENSIFYING INTO THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THAT STATED... IF THE CIRRUS SHIELD FROM CONVECTION
OVER TENNESSEE CAN BUILD INTO THE AREA...EXPECT THAT WILL HAVE A
STABILIZING EFFECT AND LIMIT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
BUT CIRRUS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT IS IN A HURRY TO ENTER OUR AREA.

CEILINGS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WILL REMAIN
MVFR...POSSIBLY LOW END VFR AT BEST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SLOWLY DUE TO LIGHT UPPER LEVEL WINDS...AND
HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL RESULT IN EXTENDED
PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN 1SM AT TIMES. GREATEST
RAINFALL COVERAGE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS DURING EVENING
AS A SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA...WITH INTENSITY WANING BY
MIDNIGHT AS HEATING ENDS. LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST CONDITIONS WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT...AS WELL AS
STRATUS DECKS BELOW 1KFT.

WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING EAST OVERNIGHT...EXPECT LOWER
COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR MONDAY...WITH
BETTER COVERAGE IN THE EAST AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT TUESDAY TO BE THE BEST BET FOR DECENT
FLYING CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON AIRMASS SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IS STILL POSSIBLE. NEXT FRONT APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY
WITH MORE SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING. THIS FRONT DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE IN A BIG HURRY AND LOOKS TO BRING MVFR CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY
IFR AT NIGHT...TO TAF SITES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...AMS/NF

000
FXUS61 KLWX 191858
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
258 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW PROVIDING WARM TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE QSTNRY FNT ALNG THE VA/NC BRDR HAS BEGUN TO CREEP BACK NWD AGN
AS A WMFNT...SPCLY INVOF THE DELMARVA. STILL WEDGING IN THE SHEN
VLY TO I-95. AMS N OF BNDRY STILL STBL...AS EVIDENCED BY THE LACK OF
RADR RTNS AS WELL AS THE LOW CLDS/CIGS. MEANWHILE...NMRS TSRA ACRS
NC/SRN WVA SHUD ADVECT NWD AND OVERRIDE THE STBL LLVLS. THEREFORE...
AM KEEPING LOW LKLY POPS FOR THE LT AFTN-ELY EVNG...AND SCALE BACK
FM THERE.

MDL SNDGS DEPICT A SATD LYR SFC-H9...SPCLY DURING THE OVNGT HRS.
THEREFORE THINK THAT DZFG WL ONCE AGN BE AN ISSUE TNGT. THE WMFNT
WL LKLY CONT TO INCH NWD...BUT W/ LTL WND AND NO BLYR ROOTING...
IT/LL BE HARD TO TELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW CLDS AND FOG WL CONT TO BE A FACTOR INTO THE MRNG HRS.
HWVR...THE MAY SUN ANGLE WL GRDLY ERODE THE SATD LYR...PERMITTING
THE FNT TO JUMP N OF AREA BY THE AFTN. SOUTH OF THIS FRONT...A
WARM AND A MODESTLY HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE. MAX TEMPS IN
THE 80S EACH DAY ALTHOUGH CLOUDS MAY INHIBIT TEMPS FROM REACHING
80F IN SOME LOCATIONS ON MON.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF PROG A MID-LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MV THRU THE MID-
ATLC REGION ON MON. LIFT/MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IN CONJUNCTION
WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE CWA.
POPS HIGHEST TOWARD CENTRAL VA/SRN MD BUT STILL IN CHANCE RANGE.

MID-LVL RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD TUE AND WED AFTER THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EXITS THE AREA. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LOW
TUE AND WED DUE TO AN ABSENCE OF ORGANIZED LIFT AND A STRENGTHENING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. MAV/MET DIVERGE HERE. KEPT FCST DRY FOR MOST
OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND CHSPK BAY AS WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL
LIMIT HOW FAR EAST CONVECTION PROPAGATES ONCE INITIATED OVER THE
MTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGIONS WED NGT AND THU BEFORE PASSING THRU
THE AREA ON FRI. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ACCORDINGLY
INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK AND WILL BE HIGHEST WITH FROPA. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL TREND MUCH COOLER IN
WAKE OF FROPA FRI INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLGT RESTRICTIONS REMAIN...BUT IMPVMNT BGNG. IFR HANGING ON METRO
BALT AS WELL AS CHO AND MRB. CIGS AT IAD/DCA HV RISEN TO MVFR. HV
FLLWD LAMP GDNC WHICH HAS GOOD PERFORMANCE TDA. WHILE FLGT CATS
SHUD REACH MVFR ELSW TAFTN...DONT FORSEE VFR ANYWHERE. SCH SHRA
PSBL...BUT CVRG LMTD/BRIEF.

AFDK...THE TREND SHUD REVERSE...ONCE AGN PER LAMP. LLVLS SATURATE
AND WNDS LGT. AOB IFR XPCTD OVNGT.

IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO START THE DAY MON BEFORE MRNG STRATUS/
FOG MIX OUT FROM W TO E. PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MON
AFTN ALTHOUGH BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE.
DIURNAL FOG/LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE AT NGT AND ERY IN THE MRNG EACH
DAY IN THE MIDWEEK. CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE LOW DURING THIS
TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
MD BAY/TIDAL PTMC ON THE STBL SIDE OF A WMFNT ATTM. MIXING POOR
AND WNDS AOB 10 KT. HWVR THIS FNT SLOWLY WORKING NWD AGN. SCA GOES
INTO EFFECT FOR MID BAY AND LWR PTMC AT 3PM...AND FOR BAY POOLES
ISL-NBEACH AT 6PM. SUSPECT THIS IS A BIT FAST...AND DONT HV A
GOOD FEEL WHETHER SPDS WL REACH SCA CRITERIA AT ALL OR BE TRAPPED
ABV AN INVSN. WL MAINTAIN STATUS QUO FOR NOW.

LGT SLY FLOW ELY IN THE WEEK WILL STRENGTHEN LATER IN THE WEEK.
SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY THU...WHEN A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DEPARTURES CONT TO DECREASE TODAY...NOW ALL LESS THAN A HALF-FOOT.
NO TIDAL FLOOD ISSUES EXPECTED IN THE NEAR FUTURE /TNGT OR EVEN
TOMORROW/.

WATER LEVELS SHOULD TICK UPWARD ELY NEXT WEEK WITH SLY FLOW
PERSISTING AND A WAXING GIBBOUS MOON. THIS FAR OUT...STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY IF POSITIVE ANOMALIES INCREASE ENOUGH TO REACH MINOR
THRESHOLD.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ531-532-539-540.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ533-534-
     537-541-543.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KRNK 191823
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
223 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT...THEN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY TUESDAY. A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY
INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1015 AM EDT SUNDAY...

SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LIGHT AND SPOTTY THIS MORNING AS INDICATED BY
RADAR...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CLOUD COVER BREAKING UP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE. WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE THROUGH THE DAY...EXPECT MORE HEATING COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING BY AROUND NOON ACROSS ALL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS INDICATED BY
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
VIRGINIA AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS...AND LIGHT
WINDS ALOFT RESULTING IN SLOW STORM MOVEMENT. THAT STATED...
WHILE THERE MAY BE SPOTS WITH HEAVY RAIN...OVERALL AMOUNTS
EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING ARE NOT EXCESSIVE...LESS THAN 2 INCHES
ON THE WPC DAY ONE FORECAST.

TONIGHT...SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY TURN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTH THEN SOUTHWEST. 850 MB WINDS COME AROUND TO
THE WEST IN THE MOUNTAINS BY MORNING WITH SOME WARM AIR
ADVECTION. BUT MUCH OF THE NIGHT...EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL
STILL HAVE WEAK UPSLOPE SO ADDED PATCHY FOG. NO BIG CHANGES FROM
GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

MONDAY IS QUITE WARM AND HUMID WITH THE EASTERLY COMPONENT ERASED
AND THE STATIONARY FRONT PUSHED BACK NORTH. SOME SUNSHINE BREAKING
OUT WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BLUE
RIDGE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT SUNDAY...

SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF MONDAY
NIGHT. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
IN THE PIEDMONT. AFTER MIDNIGHT CUT BACK POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN
THE EAST. WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW...IT WILL BE MILD MONDAY NIGHT WITH
READINGS FROM THE MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE
SOUTHEAST.

MID-LVL RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD TUESDAY AFTER THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXITS THE REGION. WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT AND ABSENCE OF ORGANIZED LIFT
TRANSLATES TO LESS COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. PLAYED THE HIGHEST POPS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE
PIEDMONT. WARM AND MUGGY TUESDAY NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE
60S.

WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH...WILL PROVIDE SOME LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT SUNDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL SPIN AROUND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM...PLENTY
OF MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION.

PIECES OF ENERGY WILL SPIRAL EASTWARD FROM THE MAIN SYSTEM AND
COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO CREATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HPC CONTINUES TO FAVOR A SLOWER TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO EXIT OUR AREA FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ECMWF
REMAINS FASTER THAN GFS WITH TIMING OF COLD FRONT. DO NOT BELIEVE
THE SFC LOW THAT DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST ON GFS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY AND SLIDE EAST ON
SUNDAY.

COOLING TREND EXPECT FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 70 DEGREES IN THE WEST TO NEAR 80 DEGREES
IN THE SOUTHEAST. SATURDAY HIGHS ONLY REACH THE MID 60S ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. HIGHS FOR
SUNDAY WILL WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE MID 60S IN THE WEST
TO THE MID 70S IN THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 155 AM EDT SUNDAY...

RADAR INDICATING SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITH AFTERNOON HEATING
AREAWIDE. CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS HAS BEEN LESS
WIDESPREAD AS DRIER AIR BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...WHICH HAS LEAD
TO GREATER SURFACE HEATING. THEREFORE...WILL KEEPING AN EYE ON
STRONGER SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING IN THIS MORE UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT...WITH SHOWERS INTENSIFYING INTO THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THAT STATED... IF THE CIRRUS SHIELD FROM CONVECTION
OVER TENNESSEE CAN BUILD INTO THE AREA...EXPECT THAT WILL HAVE A
STABILIZING EFFECT AND LIMIT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
BUT CIRRUS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT IS IN A HURRY TO ENTER OUR AREA.

CEILINGS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WILL REMAIN
MVFR...POSSIBLY LOW END VFR AT BEST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SLOWLY DUE TO LIGHT UPPER LEVEL WINDS...AND
HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL RESULT IN EXTENDED
PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN 1SM AT TIMES. GREATEST
RAINFALL COVERAGE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS DURING EVENING
AS A SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA...WITH INTENSITY WANING BY
MIDNIGHT AS HEATING ENDS. LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST CONDITIONS WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT...AS WELL AS
STRATUS DECKS BELOW 1KFT.

WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING EAST OVERNIGHT...EXPECT LOWER
COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR MONDAY...WITH
BETTER COVERAGE IN THE EAST AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT TUESDAY TO BE THE BEST BET FOR DECENT
FLYING CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON AIRMASS SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IS STILL POSSIBLE. NEXT FRONT APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY
WITH MORE SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING. THIS FRONT DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE IN A BIG HURRY AND LOOKS TO BRING MVFR CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY
IFR AT NIGHT...TO TAF SITES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/NF
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...AMS/NF

000
FXUS61 KRNK 191754
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
154 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT...THEN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY TUESDAY. A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY
INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1015 AM EDT SUNDAY...

SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LIGHT AND SPOTTY THIS MORNING AS INDICATED BY
RADAR...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CLOUD COVER BREAKING UP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE. WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE THROUGH THE DAY...EXPECT MORE HEATING COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING BY AROUND NOON ACROSS ALL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS INDICATED BY
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
VIRGINIA AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS...AND LIGHT
WINDS ALOFT RESULTING IN SLOW STORM MOVEMENT. THAT STATED...
WHILE THERE MAY BE SPOTS WITH HEAVY RAIN...OVERALL AMOUNTS
EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING ARE NOT EXCESSIVE...LESS THAN 2 INCHES
ON THE WPC DAY ONE FORECAST.

TONIGHT...SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY TURN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTH THEN SOUTHWEST. 850 MB WINDS COME AROUND TO
THE WEST IN THE MOUNTAINS BY MORNING WITH SOME WARM AIR
ADVECTION. BUT MUCH OF THE NIGHT...EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL
STILL HAVE WEAK UPSLOPE SO ADDED PATCHY FOG. NO BIG CHANGES FROM
GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

MONDAY IS QUITE WARM AND HUMID WITH THE EASTERLY COMPONENT ERASED
AND THE STATIONARY FRONT PUSHED BACK NORTH. SOME SUNSHINE BREAKING
OUT WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BLUE
RIDGE MONDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT SUNDAY...

SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF MONDAY
NIGHT. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
IN THE PIEDMONT. AFTER MIDNIGHT CUT BACK POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN
THE EAST. WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW...IT WILL BE MILD MONDAY NIGHT WITH
READINGS FROM THE MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE
SOUTHEAST.

MID-LVL RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD TUESDAY AFTER THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXITS THE REGION. WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT AND ABSENCE OF ORGANIZED LIFT
TRANSLATES TO LESS COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. PLAYED THE HIGHEST POPS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE
PIEDMONT. WARM AND MUGGY TUESDAY NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE
60S.

WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH...WILL PROVIDE SOME LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT SUNDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL SPIN AROUND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM...PLENTY
OF MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION.

PIECES OF ENERGY WILL SPIRAL EASTWARD FROM THE MAIN SYSTEM AND
COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO CREATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HPC CONTINUES TO FAVOR A SLOWER TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO EXIT OUR AREA FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ECMWF
REMAINS FASTER THAN GFS WITH TIMING OF COLD FRONT. DO NOT BELIEVE
THE SFC LOW THAT DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST ON GFS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY AND SLIDE EAST ON
SUNDAY.

COOLING TREND EXPECT FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 70 DEGREES IN THE WEST TO NEAR 80 DEGREES
IN THE SOUTHEAST. SATURDAY HIGHS ONLY REACH THE MID 60S ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. HIGHS FOR
SUNDAY WILL WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE MID 60S IN THE WEST
TO THE MID 70S IN THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 155 AM EDT SUNDAY...

EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OF CEILINGS THIS MORNING FROM IFR/MVFR
TO MVFR/VFR...ALTHOUGH NOT CONFIDENT WITH TIMING. PRECIPITATION
HAS DECREASED IN COVERAGE. THIS BREAK IN THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MID MORNING.

AS SHORT WAVE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SLOWLY APPROACHES THE
FORECAST AREA...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MORE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MOST LIKELY SITES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAN AND BLF BUT
THIS WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT IN GETTING SOME HEATING DURING THE
DAY. FLOW REMAINS SOUTHEAST TONIGHT SO EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER
BUT STAY IN THE MVFR TO IFR RANGE.

CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. EXPECT TUESDAY TO BE THE BEST BET FOR
DECENT FLYING CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON AIRMASS
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS STILL POSSIBLE. NEXT FRONT APPROACHES ON
WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING. THIS FRONT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE IN A BIG HURRY AND LOOKS TO BRING MVFR
CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY IFR AT NIGHT...TO TAF SITES FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/NF
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...AMS

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 191744
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
144 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT OVER SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND LIFTING SLOWLY NORTH AND WILL
DISSIPATE ACROSS MARYLAND ON MONDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL DOMINATE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AROUND
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1 PM UPDATE...INCREASED POPS TOWARD THE COAST OVER SE VA AND NE NC
WHERE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED
SUNSHINE THIS MORNING.

10AM UPDATE...MADE SMALL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AND BUMPED POPS
UP SLIGHTLY OVER SOUTHEAST PORTIONS SO THAT THE ENTIRE CWA HAS
LIKELY SHOWERS. MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY BUT SIGNIFICANT BREAKS SHOULD CONTINUE TO APPEAR OVER SE VA
AND NE NC WHICH WILL PROMOTE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTN. MAX
TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPR 70S WITH NEAR
80 DEGREES EXPECTED OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA. LOWEST
READINGS WILL BE IN NORTHERN PORTIONS AND ALONG THE COAST. CONTINUED
WITH ISOLATED THUNDER EXCEPT IN PORTIONS OF THE MD EASTERN SHORE.
WENT WITH ISOLATED DUE TO CONVERGENCE AND CAPE BEING WEAKER THAN THEY
WERE SATURDAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW STUBBORN
UPPER LOW OVER WRN KY WITH A RATHER BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SITUATED FROM KY DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS. AT THE SFC...STATIONARY
FRONT/BOUNDARY STILL LOCATED OVER NRN NC. AREA OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN N CNTRL NC
EARLIER THIS MORNING...BUT HAVE SINCE WEAKENED AS THEY MOVED NORTH
INTO THE REGION. CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED...BUT A FEW SHALLOW
SHOWERS ONGOING OVER THE ERN SHORE...AIDED BY MID LEVEL
ENERGY/SHORTWAVE. RUC H7 OMEGA HANDLES THIS AREA OF SHOWERS
WELL...WITH THE SHOWERS PUSHING OFFSHORE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN
ADDITION...VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...WAA AND CALM WINDS HAVE
RESULTED IN AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING...WITH SOME VISIBILITIES AS
LOW AS HALF A MILE IN THE RICHMOND AREA.

ADDITIONAL WEAK IMPULSES WILL EJECT EWD FROM THE DYING UPPER LOW
INTO A WARM/MOIST AIRMASS...WITH THE FIRST ARRIVING LATER THIS
MORNING. COOLING CLOUD TOPS ALREADY OBSERVED THIS MORNING OVER WRN
NC. PRECIP WATERS STILL AROUND 1.5 INCHES (+1 STD DEV). EXPECT
SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE ERN VA PIEDMONT BY MID
MORNING. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WEAKENING UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN IN
THE VICINITY OF WRN KY AS THE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO LIFT NWD AS A
WARM FRONT. SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT THROUGH VA...COMBINING WITH WEAK
DIVERGENCE ALOFT TO PROVIDE FORCING FOR ASCENT...ALBEIT WEAK.
HOWEVER...WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE...IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT INTO CNTRL VA. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED...BUT GOOD LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS....MAINLY ACROSS SRN VA. S/SE
FLOW WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ALONG THE COAST AND OVER
THE ERN SHORE. MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE RATHER WEAK...SO THE
MAIN THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN.

ANOTHER CLOUDY/WET DAY WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM REACHING THEIR FULL
POTENTIAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 70S. COLDER
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND OVER THE ERN SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW WILL EJECT OVER THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A POTENT UPPER TROUGH REACHES THE MIDWEST. AT
THE SFC...WARM FRONT WILL LOCATE NORTH OF THE FA MONDAY AFTERNOON
AS HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC EXTENDS WWD INTO
THE LOWER MID ATLANTIC AND SE STATES. WARM/MOIST AIRMASS WILL
BUILD IN AS S/SW FLOW ADVECTS DEEP MOIST FROM THE ATLANTIC...WITH
PRECIP WATER VALUES APPROACHING +1.5 STD DEV. WEAK SHORTWAVE AND
DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL PROVIDE SUBTLE FORCING FOR ASCENT...BUT
EXPECT MOST FORCING AND RESULTANT CONVECTION TO BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN. WHILE THETA-E ADVECTION AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE
MARGINAL INSTABILITY (500-1000 J/KG CAPE)...A WEAKENING MID LEVEL
WIND FIELD WILL PROVIDE LIMITED SHEAR. THE RESULT WILL BE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY LITTLE ORGANIZATION. THE
SHORTWAVE AXIS PROGGED TO BE AROUND THE ERN VA PIEDMONT...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BEING TO THE EAST OF THE
AXIS OVER CNTRL AND ERN VA.

TROUGH AXIS WILL LOCATE ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY AS THE CNTRL CONUS
TROUGH AMPLIFIES THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EAST. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
AND SUBTLE UVM WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S AND AFTERNOON TEMPS IN
THE LOW/MID 80S WILL RESULT IN GREATER INSTABILITY (~1500 J/KG
CAPE AND ~-6 LIFTED INDEX) FOR CONVECTION/THUNDERSTORMS. FORCING
WILL BE MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. HOWEVER...SHEAR REMAINS WEAK SO
EXPECT NO ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS.

NEAR SEASONABLE NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY (UPPER 70S/LOW 80S) BEFORE A
WARMING TREND TUESDAY. INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES...AS WELL AS
850 TEMPS APPROACHING +1 STD DEV...WILL RESULT IN TEMPS GENERALLY
IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS SIMILAR OVER THIS TIME PERIOD WITH THE TIMING OF ANOTHER TROF
DEEPING AT 500 MB TOWARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL USHER A
STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE
FRONT WILL HAVE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. BEFORE THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. SOUTH OF THIS AREA WILL HAVE
GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. COULD SEE AN
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM NORTH
ALONG THE BOUNDARY COULD PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA
DURING THE EVENINGS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL
THE FRONT PASSES. THEN TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK ON SATURDAY TO AT
OR BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM ECG TO ORF AND SOUTH OF RIC. EXPECT
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS AT RIC INTO THIS EVENING WITH A FEW SHOWERS
MOVING THROUGH AFTER 19Z. AT ORF CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR
UNTIL HEAVIER SHOWERS REACH THE AIRPORT AROUND 19Z REDUCING VSBY
TO MVFR AND PERHAPS EVEN TEMPORARILY IFR. NELY FLOW AT ORF IS DUE
TO A WEAK BAY BREEZE AND WILL BECOME SLY THIS EVENING. JUST TO THE
NORTH PHF HAS BEEN SLOW TO IMPROVE AND WILL REMAIN MVFR FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SBY HAS CONTINUE TO SEE IFR CONDITIONS BUT
THIS WILL TEMPORARILY IMPROVE TO MVFR BY THIS EVENING BEFORE
RETURNING TO IFR OVERNIGHT.

SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING OVERNIGHT OUTSIDE OF A
FEW STRAY SHOWERS HERE AND THERE. DESPITE MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
KEEPING CONDITIONS ABOVE IFR DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CONTINUES BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION EXPECT IFR CEILINGS AND FOG TO
RE-DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES. THESE IFR CONDITIONS WILL
LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING IMPROVING SLOWLY THROUGH MID MORNING.
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH MORE COVERAGE OF HEAVY SHOWERS THAN COMPARED TO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
S/SE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE MARINE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH
SPEEDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA EVERYWHERE EVEN INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
GENERALLY 10 KT THROUGH LATE MORNING INCREASING TO 10-15KT ON THE
BAY/RIVERS/SOUND...AND 10-20 KT ON THE OCEAN /HIGHEST N OF CAPE
CHARLES LIGHT/. THESE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST NEXT 2-3
DAYS...BEFORE WINDS BECOME SSWLY/SWLY IN THE TUE TIME FRAME.

SEAS ON THE COASTAL WATERS CONTINUE TO RUN AROUND 4-5 FEET AND
HAVE BEEN SLOWLY DECREASING OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. WIND FORECASTS
DO NOT APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE SEAS TO INCREASE TO 5+
FEET. HOWEVER...WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE PERSISTS IN PLACING MOST OF THE
COASTAL WATERS IN 5-6 FOOT SEAS TODAY/TONIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN SCA
FOR THE NRN 2 CSTL ZONES FOR SEAS THROUGH 00Z MON AS WINDS MAY
TEMPORARILY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON PUSHING SEAS IN THE NORTH OF
NEAR 5 FT. SEAS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FEET AFTER 00Z MON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER LEVEL FORECASTS HAVE BEEN LOWERED SUBSTANTIALLY DUE TO LACK
OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN THE HEADWATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB/LSA
NEAR TERM...SAM/LSA
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...JAO
MARINE...WRS
HYDROLOGY...

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 191646
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1246 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT OVER SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND LIFTING SLOWLY NORTH AND WILL
DISSIPATE ACROSS MARYLAND ON MONDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL DOMINATE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AROUND
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1 PM UPDATE...INCREASED POPS TOWARD THE COAST OVER SE VA AND NE NC
WHERE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED
SUNSHINE THIS MORNING.

10AM UPDATE...MADE SMALL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AND BUMPED POPS
UP SLIGHTLY OVER SOUTHEAST PORTIONS SO THAT THE ENTIRE CWA HAS
LIKELY SHOWERS. MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY BUT SIGNIFICANT BREAKS SHOULD CONTINUE TO APPEAR OVER SE VA
AND NE NC WHICH WILL PROMOTE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTN. MAX
TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPR 70S WITH NEAR
80 DEGREES EXPECTED OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA. LOWEST
READINGS WILL BE IN NORTHERN PORTIONS AND ALONG THE COAST. CONTINUED
WITH ISOLATED THUNDER EXCEPT IN PORTIONS OF THE MD EASTERN SHORE.
WENT WITH ISOLATED DUE TO CONVERGENCE AND CAPE BEING WEAKER THAN THEY
WERE SATURDAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW STUBBORN
UPPER LOW OVER WRN KY WITH A RATHER BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SITUATED FROM KY DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS. AT THE SFC...STATIONARY
FRONT/BOUNDARY STILL LOCATED OVER NRN NC. AREA OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN N CNTRL NC
EARLIER THIS MORNING...BUT HAVE SINCE WEAKENED AS THEY MOVED NORTH
INTO THE REGION. CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED...BUT A FEW SHALLOW
SHOWERS ONGOING OVER THE ERN SHORE...AIDED BY MID LEVEL
ENERGY/SHORTWAVE. RUC H7 OMEGA HANDLES THIS AREA OF SHOWERS
WELL...WITH THE SHOWERS PUSHING OFFSHORE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN
ADDITION...VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...WAA AND CALM WINDS HAVE
RESULTED IN AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING...WITH SOME VISIBILITIES AS
LOW AS HALF A MILE IN THE RICHMOND AREA.

ADDITIONAL WEAK IMPULSES WILL EJECT EWD FROM THE DYING UPPER LOW
INTO A WARM/MOIST AIRMASS...WITH THE FIRST ARRIVING LATER THIS
MORNING. COOLING CLOUD TOPS ALREADY OBSERVED THIS MORNING OVER WRN
NC. PRECIP WATERS STILL AROUND 1.5 INCHES (+1 STD DEV). EXPECT
SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE ERN VA PIEDMONT BY MID
MORNING. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WEAKENING UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN IN
THE VICINITY OF WRN KY AS THE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO LIFT NWD AS A
WARM FRONT. SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT THROUGH VA...COMBINING WITH WEAK
DIVERGENCE ALOFT TO PROVIDE FORCING FOR ASCENT...ALBEIT WEAK.
HOWEVER...WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE...IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT INTO CNTRL VA. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED...BUT GOOD LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS....MAINLY ACROSS SRN VA. S/SE
FLOW WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ALONG THE COAST AND OVER
THE ERN SHORE. MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE RATHER WEAK...SO THE
MAIN THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN.

ANOTHER CLOUDY/WET DAY WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM REACHING THEIR FULL
POTENTIAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 70S. COLDER
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND OVER THE ERN SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW WILL EJECT OVER THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A POTENT UPPER TROUGH REACHES THE MIDWEST. AT
THE SFC...WARM FRONT WILL LOCATE NORTH OF THE FA MONDAY AFTERNOON
AS HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC EXTENDS WWD INTO
THE LOWER MID ATLANTIC AND SE STATES. WARM/MOIST AIRMASS WILL
BUILD IN AS S/SW FLOW ADVECTS DEEP MOIST FROM THE ATLANTIC...WITH
PRECIP WATER VALUES APPROACHING +1.5 STD DEV. WEAK SHORTWAVE AND
DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL PROVIDE SUBTLE FORCING FOR ASCENT...BUT
EXPECT MOST FORCING AND RESULTANT CONVECTION TO BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN. WHILE THETA-E ADVECTION AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE
MARGINAL INSTABILITY (500-1000 J/KG CAPE)...A WEAKENING MID LEVEL
WIND FIELD WILL PROVIDE LIMITED SHEAR. THE RESULT WILL BE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY LITTLE ORGANIZATION. THE
SHORTWAVE AXIS PROGGED TO BE AROUND THE ERN VA PIEDMONT...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BEING TO THE EAST OF THE
AXIS OVER CNTRL AND ERN VA.

TROUGH AXIS WILL LOCATE ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY AS THE CNTRL CONUS
TROUGH AMPLIFIES THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EAST. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
AND SUBTLE UVM WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S AND AFTERNOON TEMPS IN
THE LOW/MID 80S WILL RESULT IN GREATER INSTABILITY (~1500 J/KG
CAPE AND ~-6 LIFTED INDEX) FOR CONVECTION/THUNDERSTORMS. FORCING
WILL BE MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. HOWEVER...SHEAR REMAINS WEAK SO
EXPECT NO ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS.

NEAR SEASONABLE NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY (UPPER 70S/LOW 80S) BEFORE A
WARMING TREND TUESDAY. INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES...AS WELL AS
850 TEMPS APPROACHING +1 STD DEV...WILL RESULT IN TEMPS GENERALLY
IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS SIMILAR OVER THIS TIME PERIOD WITH THE TIMING OF ANOTHER TROF
DEEPING AT 500 MB TOWARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL USHER A
STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE
FRONT WILL HAVE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. BEFORE THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. SOUTH OF THIS AREA WILL HAVE
GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. COULD SEE AN
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM NORTH
ALONG THE BOUNDARY COULD PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA
DURING THE EVENINGS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL
THE FRONT PASSES. THEN TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK ON SATURDAY TO AT
OR BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MIX OF VFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FROM ECG AND ORF N AND NW TO RIC
AND SBY. A FEW HOLES IN THE CLOUD DECK AT ECG AND ORF HAS ALLOWED
CONDITIONS AT BOTH LOCATION TO IMPROVE TO VFR AS OF 12Z. PERIODIC
IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ORF THROUGH 15Z BUT TREND TAT
ORF WILL BE TOWARDS VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR IN SHOWERS AT ORF
FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS FROM PHF TO RIC
AND SBY WILL HOLD ONTO IFR CONDITIONS A BIT LONGER. PHF SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR AND VFR MID TO LATE MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BE
SLOWER TO IMPROVE AT RIC AND SBY WHERE IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER
THROUGH 16Z.

MOST OF THE HIGH RES MODELS SUGGESTS THAT PRECIP FOCUS WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTH AND WEST THIS AFTERNOON AS WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF WEAKENING UPR TROF FROM THE TN VLY. THIS SHOULD
LIMIT PRECIP COVERAGE AT TERMINALS IN THE 12Z-00Z TIME
FRAME...ALTHOUGH SCTD SHWRS/ISOLD TSTM PSBL AT KSBY THROUGH 18Z...AND
AT KRIC AFTER 21Z.

REGION IN WARM SECTOR MON THROUGH WED WITH SCTD...MORE
DIURNAL...SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY...BUT MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
S/SE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE MARINE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH
SPEEDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA EVERYWHERE EVEN INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
GENERALLY 10 KT THROUGH LATE MORNING INCREASING TO 10-15KT ON THE
BAY/RIVERS/SOUND...AND 10-20 KT ON THE OCEAN /HIGHEST N OF CAPE
CHARLES LIGHT/. THESE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST NEXT 2-3
DAYS...BEFORE WINDS BECOME SSWLY/SWLY IN THE TUE TIME FRAME.

SEAS ON THE COASTAL WATERS CONTINUE TO RUN AROUND 4-5 FEET AND
HAVE BEEN SLOWLY DECREASING OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. WIND FORECASTS
DO NOT APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE SEAS TO INCREASE TO 5+
FEET. HOWEVER...WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE PERSISTS IN PLACING MOST OF THE
COASTAL WATERS IN 5-6 FOOT SEAS TODAY/TONIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN SCA
FOR THE NRN 2 CSTL ZONES FOR SEAS THROUGH 00Z MON AS WINDS MAY
TEMPORARILY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON PUSHING SEAS IN THE NORTH OF
NEAR 5 FT. SEAS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FEET AFTER 00Z MON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER LEVEL FORECASTS HAVE BEEN LOWERED SUBSTANTIALLY DUE TO LACK
OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN THE HEADWATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB/LSA
NEAR TERM...SAM/LSA
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...JAO/WRS
MARINE...WRS
HYDROLOGY...

000
FXUS61 KRNK 191456
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1056 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT...THEN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY TUESDAY. A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY
INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM EDT SUNDAY...

SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LIGHT AND SPOTTY THIS MORNING AS INDICATED BY
RADAR...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CLOUD COVER BREAKING UP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE. WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE THROUGH THE DAY...EXPECT MORE HEATING COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING BY AROUND NOON ACROSS ALL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS INDICATED BY
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
VIRGINIA AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS...AND LIGHT
WINDS ALOFT RESULTING IN SLOW STORM MOVEMENT. THAT STATED...
WHILE THERE MAY BE SPOTS WITH HEAVY RAIN...OVERALL AMOUNTS
EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING ARE NOT EXCESSIVE...LESS THAN 2 INCHES
ON THE WPC DAY ONE FORECAST.

TONIGHT...SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY TURN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTH THEN SOUTHWEST. 850 MB WINDS COME AROUND TO
THE WEST IN THE MOUNTAINS BY MORNING WITH SOME WARM AIR
ADVECTION. BUT MUCH OF THE NIGHT...EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL
STILL HAVE WEAK UPSLOPE SO ADDED PATCHY FOG. NO BIG CHANGES FROM
GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 346 AM EDT SATURDAY...

MONDAY IS QUITE WARM AND HUMID WITH THE EASTERLY COMPONENT ERASED
AND THE STATIONARY FRONT PUSHED BACK NORTH. SOME SUNSHINE BREAKING
OUT WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BLUE
RIDGE MONDAY AFTERNOON. A GOOD CHUNK OF DRIER AIR ARRIVES AT H7
ACROSS SE WEST VA LATE DAY...POSSIBLY SHUTTING STORMS DOWN THERE.
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT THE FOCUS WILL PROBABLY SHIFT
TO THE VA/NC PIEDMONT WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLY LASTING FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT. EVEN MORE WIDESPREAD DRY AIR ALOFT ON
TUESDAY...SO PERHAPS THIS IS THE DRIEST DAY. SOME WEAK UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCES MAY ROTATE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ATLANTIC
SURFACE HIGH...ADDING A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE ALOFT AND PROVIDING
SOME LIFT FOR MORE STORM COVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT OUR REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE START OF THE NEXT WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH...WE CANNOT RULE
OUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR EVEN A FEW STORMS DURING THE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
ALREADY BRINING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST
IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

OUR NEXT SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL CLOSED LOW THAT WILL PINWHEEL AROUND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. PLENTY OF GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE
WILL BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THIS
SYSTEM. ALSO...PERIODIC BITS OF ENERGY WILL SPIRAL EASTWARD FROM
THE MAIN SYSTEM AND COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PROMOTE A
GENEROUS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT
LEAST THE START OF THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES AS TO THE
SPEED OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. HPC GUIDANCE IS
FAVORING A SLOWER SOLUTION THAT IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE
OPERATIONAL 12Z/8AM GFS THAT DOESN/T HAVE THE FRONT EXITING THE
AREA UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSELY WITH THIS
SCENARIO.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL TREND
COOLER...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH MID 60S TO NEAR 70 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 155 AM EDT SUNDAY...

EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OF CEILINGS THIS MORNING FROM IFR/MVFR
TO MVFR/VFR...ALTHOUGH NOT CONFIDENT WITH TIMING. PRECIPITATION
HAS DECREASED IN COVERAGE. THIS BREAK IN THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MID MORNING.

AS SHORT WAVE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SLOWLY APPROACHES THE
FORECAST AREA...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MORE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MOST LIKELY SITES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAN AND BLF BUT
THIS WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT IN GETTING SOME HEATING DURING THE
DAY. FLOW REMAINS SOUTHEAST TONIGHT SO EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER
BUT STAY IN THE MVFR TO IFR RANGE.

CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. EXPECT TUESDAY TO BE THE BEST BET FOR
DECENT FLYING CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON AIRMASS
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS STILL POSSIBLE. NEXT FRONT APPROACHES ON
WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING. THIS FRONT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE IN A BIG HURRY AND LOOKS TO BRING MVFR
CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY IFR AT NIGHT...TO TAF SITES FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/NF
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 191403
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1003 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NORTH CAROLINA THIS
MORNING. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE NORTH TODAY...AND
MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10AM UPDATE...MADE SMALL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AND BUMPED POPS
UP SLIGHTLY OVER SOUTHEAST PORTIONS SO THAT THE ENTIRE CWA HAS
LIKELY SHOWERS. MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY BUT SIGNIFICANT BREAKS SHOULD CONTINUE TO APPEAR OVER SE VA
AND NE NC WHICH WILL PROMOTE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTN. MAX
TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPR 70S WITH NEAR
80 DEGREES EXPECTED OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA. LOWEST
READINGS WILL BE IN NORTHERN PORTIONS AND ALONG THE COAST. CONTINUED
WITH ISOLATED THUNDER EXCEPT IN PORTIONS OF THE MD EASTERN SHORE.
WENT WITH ISOLATED DUE TO CONVERGENCE AND CAPE BEING WEAKER THAN THEY
WERE SATURDAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW STUBBORN
UPPER LOW OVER WRN KY WITH A RATHER BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SITUATED FROM KY DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS. AT THE SFC...STATIONARY
FRONT/BOUNDARY STILL LOCATED OVER NRN NC. AREA OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN N CNTRL NC
EARLIER THIS MORNING...BUT HAVE SINCE WEAKENED AS THEY MOVED NORTH
INTO THE REGION. CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED...BUT A FEW SHALLOW
SHOWERS ONGOING OVER THE ERN SHORE...AIDED BY MID LEVEL
ENERGY/SHORTWAVE. RUC H7 OMEGA HANDLES THIS AREA OF SHOWERS
WELL...WITH THE SHOWERS PUSHING OFFSHORE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN
ADDITION...VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...WAA AND CALM WINDS HAVE
RESULTED IN AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING...WITH SOME VISIBILITIES AS
LOW AS HALF A MILE IN THE RICHMOND AREA.

ADDITIONAL WEAK IMPULSES WILL EJECT EWD FROM THE DYING UPPER LOW
INTO A WARM/MOIST AIRMASS...WITH THE FIRST ARRIVING LATER THIS
MORNING. COOLING CLOUD TOPS ALREADY OBSERVED THIS MORNING OVER WRN
NC. PRECIP WATERS STILL AROUND 1.5 INCHES (+1 STD DEV). EXPECT
SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE ERN VA PIEDMONT BY MID
MORNING. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WEAKENING UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN IN
THE VICINITY OF WRN KY AS THE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO LIFT NWD AS A
WARM FRONT. SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT THROUGH VA...COMBINING WITH WEAK
DIVERGENCE ALOFT TO PROVIDE FORCING FOR ASCENT...ALBEIT WEAK.
HOWEVER...WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE...IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT INTO CNTRL VA. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED...BUT GOOD LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS....MAINLY ACROSS SRN VA. S/SE
FLOW WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ALONG THE COAST AND OVER
THE ERN SHORE. MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE RATHER WEAK...SO THE
MAIN THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN.

ANOTHER CLOUDY/WET DAY WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM REACHING THEIR FULL
POTENTIAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 70S. COLDER
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND OVER THE ERN SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW WILL EJECT OVER THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A POTENT UPPER TROUGH REACHES THE MIDWEST. AT
THE SFC...WARM FRONT WILL LOCATE NORTH OF THE FA MONDAY AFTERNOON
AS HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC EXTENDS WWD INTO
THE LOWER MID ATLANTIC AND SE STATES. WARM/MOIST AIRMASS WILL
BUILD IN AS S/SW FLOW ADVECTS DEEP MOIST FROM THE ATLANTIC...WITH
PRECIP WATER VALUES APPROACHING +1.5 STD DEV. WEAK SHORTWAVE AND
DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL PROVIDE SUBTLE FORCING FOR ASCENT...BUT
EXPECT MOST FORCING AND RESULTANT CONVECTION TO BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN. WHILE THETA-E ADVECTION AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE
MARGINAL INSTABILITY (500-1000 J/KG CAPE)...A WEAKENING MID LEVEL
WIND FIELD WILL PROVIDE LIMITED SHEAR. THE RESULT WILL BE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY LITTLE ORGANIZATION. THE
SHORTWAVE AXIS PROGGED TO BE AROUND THE ERN VA PIEDMONT...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BEING TO THE EAST OF THE
AXIS OVER CNTRL AND ERN VA.

TROUGH AXIS WILL LOCATE ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY AS THE CNTRL CONUS
TROUGH AMPLIFIES THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EAST. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
AND SUBTLE UVM WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S AND AFTERNOON TEMPS IN
THE LOW/MID 80S WILL RESULT IN GREATER INSTABILITY (~1500 J/KG
CAPE AND ~-6 LIFTED INDEX) FOR CONVECTION/THUNDERSTORMS. FORCING
WILL BE MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. HOWEVER...SHEAR REMAINS WEAK SO
EXPECT NO ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS.

NEAR SEASONABLE NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY (UPPER 70S/LOW 80S) BEFORE A
WARMING TREND TUESDAY. INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES...AS WELL AS
850 TEMPS APPROACHING +1 STD DEV...WILL RESULT IN TEMPS GENERALLY
IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS SIMILAR OVER THIS TIME PERIOD WITH THE TIMING OF ANOTHER TROF
DEEPING AT 500 MB TOWARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL USHER A
STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE
FRONT WILL HAVE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. BEFORE THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. SOUTH OF THIS AREA WILL HAVE
GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. COULD SEE AN
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM NORTH
ALONG THE BOUNDARY COULD PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA
DURING THE EVENINGS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL
THE FRONT PASSES. THEN TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK ON SATURDAY TO AT
OR BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MIX OF VFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FROM ECG AND ORF N AND NW TO RIC
AND SBY. A FEW HOLES IN THE CLOUD DECK AT ECG AND ORF HAS ALLOWED
CONDITIONS AT BOTH LOCATION TO IMPROVE TO VFR AS OF 12Z. PERIODIC
IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ORF THROUGH 15Z BUT TREND TAT
ORF WILL BE TOWARDS VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR IN SHOWERS AT ORF
FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS FROM PHF TO RIC
AND SBY WILL HOLD ONTO IFR CONDITIONS A BIT LONGER. PHF SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR AND VFR MID TO LATE MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BE
SLOWER TO IMPROVE AT RIC AND SBY WHERE IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER
THROUGH 16Z.

MOST OF THE HIGH RES MODELS SUGGESTS THAT PRECIP FOCUS WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTH AND WEST THIS AFTERNOON AS WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF WEAKENING UPR TROF FROM THE TN VLY. THIS SHOULD
LIMIT PRECIP COVERAGE AT TERMINALS IN THE 12Z-00Z TIME
FRAME...ALTHOUGH SCTD SHWRS/ISOLD TSTM PSBL AT KSBY THROUGH 18Z...AND
AT KRIC AFTER 21Z.

REGION IN WARM SECTOR MON THROUGH WED WITH SCTD...MORE
DIURNAL...SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY...BUT MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
S/SE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE MARINE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH
SPEEDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA EVERYWHERE EVEN INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
GENERALLY 10 KT THROUGH LATE MORNING INCREASING TO 10-15KT ON THE
BAY/RIVERS/SOUND...AND 10-20 KT ON THE OCEAN /HIGHEST N OF CAPE
CHARLES LIGHT/. THESE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST NEXT 2-3
DAYS...BEFORE WINDS BECOME SSWLY/SWLY IN THE TUE TIME FRAME.

SEAS ON THE COASTAL WATERS CONTINUE TO RUN AROUND 4-5 FEET AND
HAVE BEEN SLOWLY DECREASING OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. WIND FORECASTS
DO NOT APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE SEAS TO INCREASE TO 5+
FEET. HOWEVER...WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE PERSISTS IN PLACING MOST OF THE
COASTAL WATERS IN 5-6 FOOT SEAS TODAY/TONIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN SCA
FOR THE NRN 2 CSTL ZONES FOR SEAS THROUGH 00Z MON AS WINDS MAY
TEMPORARILY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON PUSHING SEAS IN THE NORTH OF
NEAR 5 FT. SEAS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FEET AFTER 00Z MON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER LEVEL FORECASTS HAVE BEEN LOWERED SUBSTANTIALLY DUE TO LACK
OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN THE HEADWATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB/LSA
NEAR TERM...SAM/LSA
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...JAO/WRS
MARINE...WRS
HYDROLOGY...

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 191339
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
939 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NORTH CAROLINA THIS
MORNING. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE NORTH TODAY...AND
MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW STUBBORN UPPER LOW
OVER WRN KY WITH A RATHER BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED
FROM KY DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS. AT THE SFC...STATIONARY
FRONT/BOUNDARY STILL LOCATED OVER NRN NC. AREA OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN N CNTRL NC
EARLIER THIS MORNING...BUT HAVE SINCE WEAKENED AS THEY MOVED NORTH
INTO THE REGION. CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED...BUT A FEW SHALLOW
SHOWERS ONGOING OVER THE ERN SHORE...AIDED BY MID LEVEL
ENERGY/SHORTWAVE. RUC H7 OMEGA HANDLES THIS AREA OF SHOWERS
WELL...WITH THE SHOWERS PUSHING OFFSHORE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN
ADDITION...VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...WAA AND CALM WINDS HAVE
RESULTED IN AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING...WITH SOME VISIBILITIES AS
LOW AS HALF A MILE IN THE RICHMOND AREA.

ADDITIONAL WEAK IMPULSES WILL EJECT EWD FROM THE DYING UPPER LOW
INTO A WARM/MOIST AIRMASS...WITH THE FIRST ARRIVING LATER THIS
MORNING. COOLING CLOUD TOPS ALREADY OBSERVED THIS MORNING OVER WRN
NC. PRECIP WATERS STILL AROUND 1.5 INCHES (+1 STD DEV). EXPECT
SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE ERN VA PIEDMONT BY MID
MORNING. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WEAKENING UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN IN
THE VICINITY OF WRN KY AS THE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO LIFT NWD AS A
WARM FRONT. SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT THROUGH VA...COMBINING WITH WEAK
DIVERGENCE ALOFT TO PROVIDE FORCING FOR ASCENT...ALBEIT WEAK.
HOWEVER...WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE...IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT INTO CNTRL VA. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED...BUT GOOD LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS....MAINLY ACROSS SRN VA. S/SE
FLOW WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ALONG THE COAST AND OVER
THE ERN SHORE. MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE RATHER WEAK...SO THE
MAIN THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN.

ANOTHER CLOUDY/WET DAY WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM REACHING THEIR FULL
POTENTIAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 70S. COLDER
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND OVER THE ERN SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW WILL EJECT OVER THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A POTENT UPPER TROUGH REACHES THE MIDWEST. AT
THE SFC...WARM FRONT WILL LOCATE NORTH OF THE FA MONDAY AFTERNOON
AS HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC EXTENDS WWD INTO
THE LOWER MID ATLANTIC AND SE STATES. WARM/MOIST AIRMASS WILL
BUILD IN AS S/SW FLOW ADVECTS DEEP MOIST FROM THE ATLANTIC...WITH
PRECIP WATER VALUES APPROACHING +1.5 STD DEV. WEAK SHORTWAVE AND
DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL PROVIDE SUBTLE FORCING FOR ASCENT...BUT
EXPECT MOST FORCING AND RESULTANT CONVECTION TO BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN. WHILE THETA-E ADVECTION AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE
MARGINAL INSTABILITY (500-1000 J/KG CAPE)...A WEAKENING MID LEVEL
WIND FIELD WILL PROVIDE LIMITED SHEAR. THE RESULT WILL BE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY LITTLE ORGANIZATION. THE
SHORTWAVE AXIS PROGGED TO BE AROUND THE ERN VA PIEDMONT...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BEING TO THE EAST OF THE
AXIS OVER CNTRL AND ERN VA.

TROUGH AXIS WILL LOCATE ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY AS THE CNTRL CONUS
TROUGH AMPLIFIES THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EAST. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
AND SUBTLE UVM WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S AND AFTERNOON TEMPS IN
THE LOW/MID 80S WILL RESULT IN GREATER INSTABILITY (~1500 J/KG
CAPE AND ~-6 LIFTED INDEX) FOR CONVECTION/THUNDERSTORMS. FORCING
WILL BE MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. HOWEVER...SHEAR REMAINS WEAK SO
EXPECT NO ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS.

NEAR SEASONABLE NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY (UPPER 70S/LOW 80S) BEFORE A
WARMING TREND TUESDAY. INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES...AS WELL AS
850 TEMPS APPROACHING +1 STD DEV...WILL RESULT IN TEMPS GENERALLY
IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS SIMILAR OVER THIS TIME PERIOD WITH THE TIMING OF ANOTHER TROF
DEEPING AT 500 MB TOWARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL USHER A
STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE
FRONT WILL HAVE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. BEFORE THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. SOUTH OF THIS AREA WILL HAVE
GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. COULD SEE AN
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM NORTH
ALONG THE BOUNDARY COULD PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA
DURING THE EVENINGS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL
THE FRONT PASSES. THEN TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK ON SATURDAY TO AT
OR BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MIX OF VFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FROM ECG AND ORF N AND NW TO RIC
AND SBY. A FEW HOLES IN THE CLOUD DECK AT ECG AND ORF HAS ALLOWED
CONDITIONS AT BOTH LOCATION TO IMPROVE TO VFR AS OF 12Z. PERIODIC
IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ORF THROUGH 15Z BUT TREND TAT
ORF WILL BE TOWARDS VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR IN SHOWERS AT ORF
FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS FROM PHF TO RIC
AND SBY WILL HOLD ONTO IFR CONDITIONS A BIT LONGER. PHF SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR AND VFR MID TO LATE MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BE
SLOWER TO IMPROVE AT RIC AND SBY WHERE IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER
THROUGH 16Z.

MOST OF THE HIGH RES MODELS SUGGESTS THAT PRECIP FOCUS WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTH AND WEST THIS AFTERNOON AS WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF WEAKENING UPR TROF FROM THE TN VLY. THIS SHOULD
LIMIT PRECIP COVERAGE AT TERMINALS IN THE 12Z-00Z TIME
FRAME...ALTHOUGH SCTD SHWRS/ISOLD TSTM PSBL AT KSBY THROUGH 18Z...AND
AT KRIC AFTER 21Z.

REGION IN WARM SECTOR MON THROUGH WED WITH SCTD...MORE
DIURNAL...SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY...BUT MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
S/SE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE MARINE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH
SPEEDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA EVERYWHERE EVEN INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
GENERALLY 10 KT THROUGH LATE MORNING INCREASING TO 10-15KT ON THE
BAY/RIVERS/SOUND...AND 10-20 KT ON THE OCEAN /HIGHEST N OF CAPE
CHARLES LIGHT/. THESE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST NEXT 2-3
DAYS...BEFORE WINDS BECOME SSWLY/SWLY IN THE TUE TIME FRAME.

SEAS ON THE COASTAL WATERS CONTINUE TO RUN AROUND 4-5 FEET AND
HAVE BEEN SLOWLY DECREASING OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. WINDS
FORECAST DO NOT APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE SEAS TO INCREASE
TO 5+ FEET. HOWEVER...WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE PERSISTS IN PLACING MOST
OF THE COASTAL WATERS IN 5-6 FOOT SEAS TODAY/TONIGHT. WILL
MAINTAIN SCA FOR THE NRN 2 CSTL ZONES FOR SEAS THROUGH 00Z MON AS
WINDS MAY TEMPORARILY INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON PUSHING SEAS IN
THE NORTH OF NEAR 5 FT. SEAS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FEET
AFTER 00Z MON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL OVER THE PIEDMONT AND RIDGES TO THE WEST ARE FORECAST TO
BRING SIGNIFICANT RISES TO AREA RIVERS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOME
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE ACTION STAGE AND MAY POSSIBLY
HAVE MINOR FLOODING. THIS WILL DEPEND ON WHICH BASINS LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL SETS UP WHICH IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...JAO/WRS
MARINE...JAO/WRS
HYDROLOGY...
EQUIPMENT...

000
FXUS61 KLWX 191337
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
937 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY. A WEAK MID-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC MIDWEEK...WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW PROVIDING
WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE COASTAL VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA
BORDER WAS SNAKING ITS WAY WESTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED
OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC.

THERE HASNT BEEN MUCH CHG TO SYNOP FEATURES THUS FAR TDA...AND
REALLY DONT ANTICIPATE RAPID CHG TAFTN. MRNG LWX RAOB STBL AND
SATD BLO H9. WHILE RNK SNDG A LTL LESS STBL...ITS NOT EXACTLY
UNSTBL EITHER. CHGD PCPN CHARACTER TO RADZ FOR THE MRNG/MIDDAY.
RADR PRESENTATION UNIMPRESSIVE...AND HV/WL SCALE BACK POPS. DO
THINK THAT A FEW HOLES WL DVLP IN OVC...AND THAT WL AIDE IN SHRA
DVLPMT LT TDA. MAYBE A TSRA TOO...BUT THAT/S LOOKING RATHER SLIM.
THINK MDL CAPE/LI FIELDS OVERDONE.

FOR TONIGHT...MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
START TO MAKE ITS WAY NORTH. EVEN IF LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE TO
THE SOUTH...AM NOT CONVINCED THAT ENOUGH WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH THE FRONT THIS FAR TO THE NORTH. THEREFORE
FORECAST REFLECTS THIS BOUNDARY REMAINING SOUTH OF THE CWA...KEEPING
LOW CLOUD COVER OVER THE CWA. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...LIFT ENHANCED
BY A SHORTWAVE AT 500 MB IS LIKELY TO BRING AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE CWA. STAYED CLOSE TO BIAS CORRECTED MAV/MET FOR
MINIMA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LLVL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK. BROAD SLY RETURN FLOW ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE
HIGH WILL KEEP WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THE REMNANT SFC WARM FRONT NORTH
OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. SOUTH OF THIS FRONT...A WARM AND A
MODESTLY HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE. MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S EACH
DAY ALTHOUGH CLOUDS MAY INHIBIT TEMPS FROM REACHING 80F IN SOME
LOCATIONS ON MON.

BOTH THE 00Z NAM/GFS PROG A MID-LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS
CURRENTLY OVER THE TN VLY TO SLOWLY MOVE WD THRU THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION ON MON. LIFT/MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IN CONJUNCTION WITH
DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE CWA. POPS
HIGHEST TOWARD CENTRAL VA/SRN MD BUT STILL IN CHANCE RANGE.

MID-LVL RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD TUE AND WED AFTER THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EXITS THE AREA. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LOW
TUE AND WED DUE TO AN ABSENCE OF ORGANIZED LIFT AND A
STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. KEPT FCST DRY FOR MOST OF THE
I-95 CORRIDOR AND CHSPK BAY AS WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL LIMIT HOW
FAR EAST CONVECTION PROPAGATES ONCE INITIATED OVER THE MTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGIONS WED NGT AND THU BEFORE PASSING THRU
THE AREA ON FRI. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ACCORDINGLY
INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK AND WILL BE HIGHEST WITH FROPA. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL TREND MUCH COOLER IN
WAKE OF FROPA FRI INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE
PRESENCE OF IFR/LIFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THIS MORNING.
CONFIDENCE LOWERS TO MODERATE REGARDING THE ENDING TIME OF THESE
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. HAVE FAVORED LAMP GUIDANCE ON KEEPING IFR UNTIL
17-18Z. DESPITE HIGH SUN ANGLE...THESE CONDITIONS COULD LINGER
LONGER GIVEN EASTERLY FLOW. ANY IMPROVEMENT THAT OCCURS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AS A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. EVEN IF
EASTERLY FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST...A DEGRADATION TO
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT PER GUIDANCE. THE ONLY TAF
SITE WITH THE INCLUSION OF THUNDER IN THE GRIDS IS CHO...REST OF THE
SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BE TOO STABLE FOR THUNDER AND ONLY SHRA WAS
MENTIONED IN TAFS.

IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO START THE DAY MON BEFORE MRNG STRATUS/
FOG MIX OUT FROM W TO E. PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MON
AFTN ALTHOUGH BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE.
DIURNAL FOG/LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE AT NGT AND ERY IN THE MRNG EACH
DAY IN THE MIDWEEK. CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE LOW DURING THIS
TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
EASTERLY FLOW STARTS TO BECOME SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MODELS FORECAST WINDS TO INCREASE...AND SOUTHEAST WINDS
TEND TO BE ENHANCED OVER THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER AND UP THE
BAY. SCA IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR THESE AREAS. ITS
POSSIBLE THAT THE SCA COULD NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE OVERNIGHT
FOR SOME OF THESE AREAS.

LGT SLY FLOW ERY IN THE WEEK WILL STRENGTHEN LATER IN THE WEEK. SCA
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY THU...WHEN A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DEPARTURES HAVE DECREASED TO A HALF FOOT OR LESS. IF THESE
ANOMALIES REMAIN THE SAME...NO FLOODING SHOULD OCCUR WITH THE
UPCOMING HIGH TIDE CYCLE. HOWEVER...AS WINDS TURN MORE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH...DEPARTURES MAY INCREASE MONDAY
INCREASING THE RISK FOR MINOR TIDAL FLOODING AT SENSITIVE
LOCATIONS.

WATER LEVELS SHOULD TICK UPWARD ERY NEXT WEEK WITH SLY FLOW
PERSISTING AND A WAXING GIBBOUS MOON. THIS FAR OUT...STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY IF POSITIVE ANOMALIES INCREASE ENOUGH TO REACH MINOR
THRESHOLD.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ531-532-539-540.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ533-534-537-541-543.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 191216
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
816 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NORTH CAROLINA THIS
MORNING. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE NORTH TODAY...AND
MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW STUBBORN UPPER LOW
OVER WRN KY WITH A RATHER BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED
FROM KY DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS. AT THE SFC...STATIONARY
FRONT/BOUNDARY STILL LOCATED OVER NRN NC. AREA OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN N CNTRL NC
EARLIER THIS MORNING...BUT HAVE SINCE WEAKENED AS THEY MOVED NORTH
INTO THE REGION. CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED...BUT A FEW SHALLOW
SHOWERS ONGOING OVER THE ERN SHORE...AIDED BY MID LEVEL
ENERGY/SHORTWAVE. RUC H7 OMEGA HANDLES THIS AREA OF SHOWERS
WELL...WITH THE SHOWERS PUSHING OFFSHORE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN
ADDITION...VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...WAA AND CALM WINDS HAVE
RESULTED IN AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING...WITH SOME VISIBILITIES AS
LOW AS HALF A MILE IN THE RICHMOND AREA.

ADDITIONAL WEAK IMPULSES WILL EJECT EWD FROM THE DYING UPPER LOW
INTO A WARM/MOIST AIRMASS...WITH THE FIRST ARRIVING LATER THIS
MORNING. COOLING CLOUD TOPS ALREADY OBSERVED THIS MORNING OVER WRN
NC. PRECIP WATERS STILL AROUND 1.5 INCHES (+1 STD DEV). EXPECT
SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE ERN VA PIEDMONT BY MID
MORNING. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WEAKENING UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN IN
THE VICINITY OF WRN KY AS THE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO LIFT NWD AS A
WARM FRONT. SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT THROUGH VA...COMBINING WITH WEAK
DIVERGENCE ALOFT TO PROVIDE FORCING FOR ASCENT...ALBEIT WEAK.
HOWEVER...WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE...IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT INTO CNTRL VA. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED...BUT GOOD LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS....MAINLY ACROSS SRN VA. S/SE
FLOW WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ALONG THE COAST AND OVER
THE ERN SHORE. MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE RATHER WEAK...SO THE
MAIN THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN.

ANOTHER CLOUDY/WET DAY WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM REACHING THEIR FULL
POTENTIAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 70S. COLDER
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND OVER THE ERN SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW WILL EJECT OVER THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A POTENT UPPER TROUGH REACHES THE MIDWEST. AT
THE SFC...WARM FRONT WILL LOCATE NORTH OF THE FA MONDAY AFTERNOON
AS HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC EXTENDS WWD INTO
THE LOWER MID ATLANTIC AND SE STATES. WARM/MOIST AIRMASS WILL
BUILD IN AS S/SW FLOW ADVECTS DEEP MOIST FROM THE ATLANTIC...WITH
PRECIP WATER VALUES APPROACHING +1.5 STD DEV. WEAK SHORTWAVE AND
DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL PROVIDE SUBTLE FORCING FOR ASCENT...BUT
EXPECT MOST FORCING AND RESULTANT CONVECTION TO BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN. WHILE THETA-E ADVECTION AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE
MARGINAL INSTABILITY (500-1000 J/KG CAPE)...A WEAKENING MID LEVEL
WIND FIELD WILL PROVIDE LIMITED SHEAR. THE RESULT WILL BE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY LITTLE ORGANIZATION. THE
SHORTWAVE AXIS PROGGED TO BE AROUND THE ERN VA PIEDMONT...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BEING TO THE EAST OF THE
AXIS OVER CNTRL AND ERN VA.

TROUGH AXIS WILL LOCATE ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY AS THE CNTRL CONUS
TROUGH AMPLIFIES THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EAST. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
AND SUBTLE UVM WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S AND AFTERNOON TEMPS IN
THE LOW/MID 80S WILL RESULT IN GREATER INSTABILITY (~1500 J/KG
CAPE AND ~-6 LIFTED INDEX) FOR CONVECTION/THUNDERSTORMS. FORCING
WILL BE MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. HOWEVER...SHEAR REMAINS WEAK SO
EXPECT NO ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS.

NEAR SEASONABLE NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY (UPPER 70S/LOW 80S) BEFORE A
WARMING TREND TUESDAY. INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES...AS WELL AS
850 TEMPS APPROACHING +1 STD DEV...WILL RESULT IN TEMPS GENERALLY
IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS SIMILAR OVER THIS TIME PERIOD WITH THE TIMING OF ANOTHER TROF
DEEPING AT 500 MB TOWARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL USHER A
STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE
FRONT WILL HAVE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. BEFORE THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. SOUTH OF THIS AREA WILL HAVE
GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. COULD SEE AN
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM NORTH
ALONG THE BOUNDARY COULD PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA
DURING THE EVENINGS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL
THE FRONT PASSES. THEN TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK ON SATURDAY TO AT
OR BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MIX OF VFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FROM ECG AND ORF N AND NW TO RIC
AND SBY. A FEW HOLES IN THE CLOUD DECK AT ECG AND ORF HAS ALLOWED
CONDITIONS AT BOTH LOCATION TO IMPROVE TO VFR AS OF 12Z. PERIODIC
IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ORF THROUGH 15Z BUT TREND TAT
ORF WILL BE TOWARDS VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR IN SHOWERS AT ORF
FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS FROM PHF TO RIC
AND SBY WILL HOLD ONTO IFR CONDITIONS A BIT LONGER. PHF SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR AND VFR MID TO LATE MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BE
SLOWER TO IMPROVE AT RIC AND SBY WHERE IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER
THROUGH 16Z.

MOST OF THE HIGH RES MODELS SUGGESTS THAT PRECIP FOCUS WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTH AND WEST THIS AFTERNOON AS WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF WEAKENING UPR TROF FROM THE TN VLY. THIS SHOULD
LIMIT PRECIP COVERAGE AT TERMINALS IN THE 12Z-00Z TIME
FRAME...ALTHOUGH SCTD SHWRS/ISOLD TSTM PSBL AT KSBY THROUGH 18Z...AND
AT KRIC AFTER 21Z.

REGION IN WARM SECTOR MON THROUGH WED WITH SCTD...MORE
DIURNAL...SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY...BUT MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
E/SE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE MARINE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH SPEEDS
BELOW SCA CRITERIA EVERYWHERE. WIND EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN TO
THE SOUTH ALL AREAS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...AND WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD
THROUGH REGION. WINDS GENERALLY 10-15KT ON THE
BAY/RIVERS/SOUND...AND 10-20 KT ON THE OCEAN /HIGHEST N OF CAPE
CHARLES LIGHT/. THESE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST NEXT 2-3
DAYS...BEFORE WINDS BECOME SSWLY/SWLY IN THE TUE TIME FRAME.

BIGGEST FORECAST CONCERN THIS MORNING IS SEAS ON THE COASTAL WATERS.
WINDS FORECAST DO NOT APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE SEAS TO
INCREASE TO 5+ FEET. HOWEVER...WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE PERSISTS IN
PLACING MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS IN 5-6 FOOT SEAS TODAY/TONIGHT.
ATTM...WILL HAVE SCA FOR THE NRN 2 CSTL ZONES FOR SEAS THROUGH 00Z
MON. SEAS HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 5 FEET AT 44009 AND 44014...WITH
GREATEST RISK FOR 5 FOOT SEAS IN COASTAL WATERS AREA BEING IN THE
NRN COASTAL ZONES. SEAS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FEET AFTER 00Z
MON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL OVER THE PIEDMONT AND RIDGES TO THE WEST ARE FORECAST TO
BRING SIGNIFICANT RISES TO AREA RIVERS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOME
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE ACTION STAGE AND MAY POSSIBLY
HAVE MINOR FLOODING. THIS WILL DEPEND ON WHICH BASINS LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL SETS UP WHICH IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AKQ 88D RADAR IS BACK IN SERVICE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...JAO/WRS
MARINE...WRS
HYDROLOGY...
EQUIPMENT...

000
FXUS61 KRNK 191150
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
750 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT...THEN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY TUESDAY. A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY
INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT SUNDAY...

WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED TWO SHORT WAVES...ONE OVER KENTUCKY AND
THE OTHER IN NORTH CAROLINA. THE FEATURE IN KENTUCKY WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...NOT REACHING THE EASTERN COUNTY
WARNING AREA UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP THE FORECAST
AREA IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIFT. MODELS SHOWED GOOD ISENTROPIC
LIFT AROUND 300K AND DECENT UPSLOPES SURFACE AND LOW LEVELS WINDS
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER TODAY. CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING AND
INSTABILITY. HAVE TRIMMED CHANCE OF THUNDER BACK TO THE FAR
WESTERN AND FAR EAST COUNTY WARNING AREA...AND EVEN IN THESE AREAS
COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST. HAVE GONE WITH COOLER GUIDANCE
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY TURN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTH THEN SOUTHWEST. 850 MB WINDS COME AROUND TO
THE WEST IN THE MOUNTAINS BY MORNING WITH SOME WARM AIR
ADVECTION. BUT MUCH OF THE NIGHT...EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL
STILL HAVE WEAK UPSLOPE SO ADDED PATCHY FOG. NO BID CHANGES FROM
GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

WHILE THERE MAY BE SPOTS WITH HEAVY RAIN...OVERALL AMOUNTS
EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING ARE NOT EXCESSIVE...LESS THAN 2 INCHES
ON THE WPC DAY ONE FORECAST. HAVE CANCELED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
SMYTH...GRAYSON AND THE NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. LATER
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ANY FLOODING THREAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 346 AM EDT SATURDAY...

MONDAY IS QUITE WARM AND HUMID WITH THE EASTERLY COMPONENT ERASED
AND THE STATIONARY FRONT PUSHED BACK NORTH. SOME SUNSHINE BREAKING
OUT WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BLUE
RIDGE MONDAY AFTERNOON. A GOOD CHUNK OF DRIER AIR ARRIVES AT H7
ACROSS SE WEST VA LATE DAY...POSSIBLY SHUTTING STORMS DOWN THERE.
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT THE FOCUS WILL PROBABLY SHIFT
TO THE VA/NC PIEDMONT WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLY LASTING FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT. EVEN MORE WIDESPREAD DRY AIR ALOFT ON
TUESDAY...SO PERHAPS THIS IS THE DRIEST DAY. SOME WEAK UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCES MAY ROTATE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ATLANTIC
SURFACE HIGH...ADDING A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE ALOFT AND PROVIDING
SOME LIFT FOR MORE STORM COVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT OUR REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE START OF THE NEXT WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH...WE CANNOT RULE
OUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR EVEN A FEW STORMS DURING THE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
ALREADY BRINING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST
IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

OUR NEXT SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL CLOSED LOW THAT WILL PINWHEEL AROUND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. PLENTY OF GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE
WILL BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THIS
SYSTEM. ALSO...PERIODIC BITS OF ENERGY WILL SPIRAL EASTWARD FROM
THE MAIN SYSTEM AND COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PROMOTE A
GENEROUS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT
LEAST THE START OF THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES AS TO THE
SPEED OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. HPC GUIDANCE IS
FAVORING A SLOWER SOLUTION THAT IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE
OPERATIONAL 12Z/8AM GFS THAT DOESN/T HAVE THE FRONT EXITING THE
AREA UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSELY WITH THIS
SCENARIO.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL TREND
COOLER...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH MID 60S TO NEAR 70 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 155 AM EDT SUNDAY...

EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OF CEILINGS THIS MORNING FROM IFR/MVFR
TO MVFR/VFR...ALTHOUGH NOT CONFIDENT WITH TIMING. PRECIPITATION
HAS DECREASED IN COVERAGE. THIS BREAK IN THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MID MORNING.

AS SHORT WAVE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SLOWLY APPROACHES THE
FORECAST AREA...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MORE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MOST LIKELY SITES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAN AND BLF BUT
THIS WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT IN GETTING SOME HEATING DURING THE
DAY. FLOW REMAINS SOUTHEAST TONIGHT SO EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER
BUT STAY IN THE MVFR TO IFR RANGE.

CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. EXPECT TUESDAY TO BE THE BEST BET FOR
DECENT FLYING CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON AIRMASS
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS STILL POSSIBLE. NEXT FRONT APPROACHES ON
WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING. THIS FRONT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE IN A BIG HURRY AND LOOKS TO BRING MVFR
CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY IFR AT NIGHT...TO TAF SITES FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS

000
FXUS61 KRNK 190847
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
447 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT...THEN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY TUESDAY. A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY
INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT SUNDAY...

WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED TWO SHORT WAVES...ONE OVER KENTUCKY AND
THE OTHER IN NORTH CAROLINA. THE FEATURE IN KENTUCKY WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...NOT REACHING THE EASTERN COUNTY
WARNING AREA UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP THE FORECAST
AREA IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIFT. MODELS SHOWED GOOD ISENTROPIC
LIFT AROUND 300K AND DECENT UPSLOPES SURFACE AND LOW LEVELS WINDS
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER TODAY. CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING AND
INSTABILITY. HAVE TRIMMED CHANCE OF THUNDER BACK TO THE FAR
WESTERN AND FAR EAST COUNTY WARNING AREA...AND EVEN IN THESE AREAS
COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST. HAVE GONE WITH COOLER GUIDANCE
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY TURN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTH THEN SOUTHWEST. 850 MB WINDS COME AROUND TO
THE WEST IN THE MOUNTAINS BY MORNING WITH SOME WARM AIR
ADVECTION. BUT MUCH OF THE NIGHT...EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL
STILL HAVE WEAK UPSLOPE SO ADDED PATCHY FOG. NO BID CHANGES FROM
GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

WHILE THERE MAY BE SPOTS WITH HEAVY RAIN...OVERALL AMOUNTS
EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING ARE NOT EXCESSIVE...LESS THAN 2 INCHES
ON THE WPC DAY ONE FORECAST. HAVE CANCELED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
SMYTH...GRAYSON AND THE NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. LATER
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ANY FLOODING THREAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 346 AM EDT SATURDAY...

MONDAY IS QUITE WARM AND HUMID WITH THE EASTERLY COMPONENT ERASED
AND THE STATIONARY FRONT PUSHED BACK NORTH. SOME SUNSHINE BREAKING
OUT WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BLUE
RIDGE MONDAY AFTERNOON. A GOOD CHUNK OF DRIER AIR ARRIVES AT H7
ACROSS SE WEST VA LATE DAY...POSSIBLY SHUTTING STORMS DOWN THERE.
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT THE FOCUS WILL PROBABLY SHIFT
TO THE VA/NC PIEDMONT WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLY LASTING FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT. EVEN MORE WIDESPREAD DRY AIR ALOFT ON
TUESDAY...SO PERHAPS THIS IS THE DRIEST DAY. SOME WEAK UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCES MAY ROTATE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ATLANTIC
SURFACE HIGH...ADDING A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE ALOFT AND PROVIDING
SOME LIFT FOR MORE STORM COVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT OUR REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE START OF THE NEXT WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH...WE CANNOT RULE
OUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR EVEN A FEW STORMS DURING THE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
ALREADY BRINING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST
IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

OUR NEXT SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL CLOSED LOW THAT WILL PINWHEEL AROUND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. PLENTY OF GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE
WILL BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THIS
SYSTEM. ALSO...PERIODIC BITS OF ENERGY WILL SPIRAL EASTWARD FROM
THE MAIN SYSTEM AND COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PROMOTE A
GENEROUS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT
LEAST THE START OF THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES AS TO THE
SPEED OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. HPC GUIDANCE IS
FAVORING A SLOWER SOLUTION THAT IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE
OPERATIONAL 12Z/8AM GFS THAT DOESN/T HAVE THE FRONT EXITING THE
AREA UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSELY WITH THIS
SCENARIO.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL TREND
COOLER...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH MID 60S TO NEAR 70 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 155 AM EDT SUNDAY...

SOUTHEAST SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD IFR
TO LIFR FOG AND STRATUS EARLY THIS MORNING AT ROA/LYH/DAN/BCB.
CEILINGS AT BLF AND LWB WILL BE PRIMARILY MVFR. LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN WILL CONTINUE AT THE TAFS SITES THROUGH 12Z/8AM.

CHALLENGING TO PICK A WINDOW WITH NO PRECIPITATION DURING THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD. FOR NOW HAVE MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON DRY.
AS SHORT WAVE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SLOWLY APPROACHES THE
FORECAST AREA...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MORE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MOST LIKELY SITES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAN AND BLF BUT
THIS WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT IN GETTING SOME HEATING DURING THE
DAY. FLOW REMAINS SOUTHEAST TONIGHT SO EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER
BUT STAY IN THE MVFR TO IFR RANGE.

CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. EXPECT TUESDAY TO BE THE BEST BET FOR
DECENT FLYING CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON AIRMASS
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS STILL POSSIBLE. NEXT FRONT APPROACHES ON
WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING. THIS FRONT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE IN A BIG HURRY AND LOOKS TO BRING MVFR
CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY IFR AT NIGHT...TO TAF SITES FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 190824
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
424 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NORTH CAROLINA THIS
MORNING. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE NORTH TODAY...AND
MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW STUBBORN UPPER LOW
OVER WRN KY WITH A RATHER BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED
FROM KY DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS. AT THE SFC...STATIONARY
FRONT/BOUNDARY STILL LOCATED OVER NRN NC. AREA OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN N CNTRL NC
EARLIER THIS MORNING...BUT HAVE SINCE WEAKENED AS THEY MOVED NORTH
INTO THE REGION. CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED...BUT A FEW SHALLOW
SHOWERS ONGOING OVER THE ERN SHORE...AIDED BY MID LEVEL
ENERGY/SHORTWAVE. RUC H7 OMEGA HANDLES THIS AREA OF SHOWERS
WELL...WITH THE SHOWERS PUSHING OFFSHORE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN
ADDITION...VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...WAA AND CALM WINDS HAVE
RESULTED IN AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING...WITH SOME VISIBILITIES AS
LOW AS HALF A MILE IN THE RICHMOND AREA.

ADDITIONAL WEAK IMPULSES WILL EJECT EWD FROM THE DYING UPPER LOW
INTO A WARM/MOIST AIRMASS...WITH THE FIRST ARRIVING LATER THIS
MORNING. COOLING CLOUD TOPS ALREADY OBSERVED THIS MORNING OVER WRN
NC. PRECIP WATERS STILL AROUND 1.5 INCHES (+1 STD DEV). EXPECT
SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE ERN VA PIEDMONT BY MID
MORNING. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WEAKENING UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN IN
THE VICINITY OF WRN KY AS THE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO LIFT NWD AS A
WARM FRONT. SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT THROUGH VA...COMBINING WITH WEAK
DIVERGENCE ALOFT TO PROVIDE FORCING FOR ASCENT...ALBEIT WEAK.
HOWEVER...WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE...IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT INTO CNTRL VA. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED...BUT GOOD LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS....MAINLY ACROSS SRN VA. S/SE
FLOW WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ALONG THE COAST AND OVER
THE ERN SHORE. MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE RATHER WEAK...SO THE
MAIN THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN.

ANOTHER CLOUDY/WET DAY WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM REACHING THEIR FULL
POTENTIAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 70S. COLDER
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND OVER THE ERN SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW WILL EJECT OVER THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A POTENT UPPER TROUGH REACHES THE MIDWEST. AT
THE SFC...WARM FRONT WILL LOCATE NORTH OF THE FA MONDAY AFTERNOON
AS HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC EXTENDS WWD INTO
THE LOWER MID ATLANTIC AND SE STATES. WARM/MOIST AIRMASS WILL
BUILD IN AS S/SW FLOW ADVECTS DEEP MOIST FROM THE ATLANTIC...WITH
PRECIP WATER VALUES APPROACHING +1.5 STD DEV. WEAK SHORTWAVE AND
DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL PROVIDE SUBTLE FORCING FOR ASCENT...BUT
EXPECT MOST FORCING AND RESULTANT CONVECTION TO BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN. WHILE THETA-E ADVECTION AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE
MARGINAL INSTABILITY (500-1000 J/KG CAPE)...A WEAKENING MID LEVEL
WIND FIELD WILL PROVIDE LIMITED SHEAR. THE RESULT WILL BE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY LITTLE ORGANIZATION. THE
SHORTWAVE AXIS PROGGED TO BE AROUND THE ERN VA PIEDMONT...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BEING TO THE EAST OF THE
AXIS OVER CNTRL AND ERN VA.

TROUGH AXIS WILL LOCATE ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY AS THE CNTRL CONUS
TROUGH AMPLIFIES THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EAST. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
AND SUBTLE UVM WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S AND AFTERNOON TEMPS IN
THE LOW/MID 80S WILL RESULT IN GREATER INSTABILITY (~1500 J/KG
CAPE AND ~-6 LIFTED INDEX) FOR CONVECTION/THUNDERSTORMS. FORCING
WILL BE MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. HOWEVER...SHEAR REMAINS WEAK SO
EXPECT NO ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS.

NEAR SEASONABLE NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY (UPPER 70S/LOW 80S) BEFORE A
WARMING TREND TUESDAY. INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES...AS WELL AS
850 TEMPS APPROACHING +1 STD DEV...WILL RESULT IN TEMPS GENERALLY
IN THE MID 80S.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS SIMILAR OVER THIS TIME PERIOD WITH THE TIMING OF ANOTHER TROF
DEEPING AT 500 MB TOWARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL USHER A
STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE
FRONT WILL HAVE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. BEFORE THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. SOUTH OF THIS AREA WILL HAVE
GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. COULD SEE AN
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM NORTH
ALONG THE BOUNDARY COULD PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA
DURING THE EVENINGS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL
THE FRONT PASSES. THEN TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK ON SATURDAY TO AT
OR BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AVIATION CONDITIONS NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO APPEAR TO BE SPLIT BETWEEN
MVFR/VFR AT KPHF/KECG/KORF AND MAINLY IFR AT KRIC/KSBY. LOOKS LIKE
KRIC WILL REMAIN IFR/LIFR THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z IN PRE-WARM FRONTAL
AIRMASS WITH SCTD SHWRS/FOG/DZ. KSBY...BASED UPON OBSERVATIONS
LAST 1-2 HOURS...WILL LIKELY OSCILLATE BETWEEN IFR AND
MVFR...ALTHOUGH IFR WILL DOMINATE IN THE 09Z-14Z TIME FRAME. THE
OTHER 3 TAFS SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR/MVFR...ALTHOUGH A HEAVIER
SHOWER/TSTM COULD BRIEFLY BRING CONDITIONS DOWN TO IFR. WITH
LITTLE FORCING THROUGH 20Z...DO NOT EXPECT A LOT OF SHWR/TSTM
ACTIVITY AT KORF/KPHF/KECG.

LATEST NAM SUGGESTS THAT PRECIP FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
WEST AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD AHD OF WEAKENING UPR TROF FROM
THE TN VLY. THIS SHOULD LIMIT PRECIP COVERAGE AT TERMINALS IN THE
12Z-00Z TIME FRAME...ALTHO SCTD SHWRS/ISOLD TSTM PSBL AT KSBY
THROUGH 18Z...AND AT KRIC AFTER 21Z.

REGION IN WARM SECTOR MON THROUGH WED WITH SCTD...MORE
DIURNAL...SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY...BUT MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
E/SE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE MARINS AREA THIS MORNING...WITH SPEEDS
BELOW SCA CRITERIA EVERYWHERE. WIND EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN TO
THE SOUTH ALL AREAS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...AND WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD
THROUGH REGION. WINDS GENERALLY 10-15KT ON THE
BAY/RIVERS/SOUND...AND 10-20 KT ON THE OCEAN /HIGHEST N OF CAPE
CHARLES LIGHT/. THESE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST NEXT 2-3
DAYS...BEFORE WINDS BECOME SSWLY/SWLY IN THE TUE TIME FRAME.

BIGGEST FORECAST CONCERN THIS MORNING IS SEAS ON THE COASTAL WATERS.
WINDS FORECAST DO NOT APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE SEAS TO
INCREASE TO 5+ FEET. HOWEVER...WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE PERSISTS IN
PLACING MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS IN 5-6 FOOT SEAS TODAY/TONIGHT.
ATTM...WILL HAVE SCA FOR THE NRN 2 CSTL ZONES FOR SEAS THROUGH 00Z
MON. SEAS HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 5 FEET AT 44009 AND 44014...WITH
GREATEST RISK FOR 5 FOOT SEAS IN COASTAL WATERS AREA BEING IN THE
NRN COASTAL ZONES. SEAS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FEET AFTER 00Z
MON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL OVER THE PIEDMONT AND RIDGES TO THE WEST ARE FORECAST TO
BRING SIGNIFICANT RISES TO AREA RIVERS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOME
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE ACTION STAGE AND MAY POSSIBLY
HAVE MINOR FLOODING. THIS WILL DEPEND ON WHICH BASINS LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL SETS UP WHICH IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AKQ 88D RADAR IS BACK IN SERVICE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...WRS
HYDROLOGY...
EQUIPMENT...

000
FXUS61 KLWX 190744
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
344 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY. A WEAK MID-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC MIDWEEK...WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW PROVIDING
WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE COASTAL VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA
BORDER WAS SNAKING ITS WAY WESTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC.

SURFACE SYNOPTIC FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIC
TODAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY SLIGHTLY OSCILLATE NORTH-SOUTH...BUT
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA. RESULT WILL BE A
CONTINUATION OF EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH CLOUDY
AND COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS.

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. IF PRECIPITATION FALLS FROM THE SKY THROUGH DAYBREAK IT
WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BE DRIZZLE THAN ANYTHING ELSE.

HOWEVER...MEASURABLE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS WAS NOTED
ACROSS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AT 07Z...AND THESE ARE FORECAST TO MOVE TO
THE NORTH AND FURTHER DEVELOP NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. POPS FROM
21Z SREFS HAVE BEEN OVERDONE AND GENERALLY DISCOUNTED AT LEAST
INITIALLY. TODAYS FORECAST REFLECTS POPS WEIGHTED MORE TOWARD RADAR
TRENDS INITIALLY THEN BLENDING WITH GUIDANCE FROM RECENT RUNS OF THE
HRRR AND WRF-ARW WHICH ARE NOT TOO TERRIBLY DIFFERENT FROM WHAT THE
00Z NAM SUGGESTS.

NAM ALSO SUGGESTS SOME INSTABILITY...LIKELY ELEVATED IN
NATURE...BEING PRESENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF THUNDER IN THESE AREAS. ANY OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. KEPT GREATER
BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON AREA FREE OF THUNDER GIVEN RELATIVELY STABLE
ONSHORE FLOW.

GUIDANCE WAS TOO WARM FOR MAXIMA YESTERDAY...AND AM FEARFUL THAT
GUIDANCE IS ALSO TOO WARM FOR TODAY WITH BOTH MAV AND MET GENERATING
MID 70S. HAVE BLENDED BIAS CORRECTED MAV/MET AS A BASIS AND
MANUALLY ADJUSTED MAXIMA DOWNWARD SEVERAL DEGREES PARTICULARLY EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS ONSHORE FLOW...CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY RAINFALL
ARE EXPECTED.

FOR TONIGHT...MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
START TO MAKE ITS WAY NORTH. EVEN IF LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE TO
THE SOUTH...AM NOT CONVINCED THAT ENOUGH WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH THE FRONT THIS FAR TO THE NORTH. THEREFORE
FORECAST REFLECTS THIS BOUNDARY REMAINING SOUTH OF THE CWA...KEEPING
LOW CLOUD COVER OVER THE CWA. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...LIFT ENHANCED
BY A SHORTWAVE AT 500 MB IS LIKELY TO BRING AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE CWA. STAYED CLOSE TO BIAS CORRECTED MAV/MET FOR
MINIMA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LLVL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK. BROAD SLY RETURN FLOW ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE
HIGH WILL KEEP WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THE REMNANT SFC WARM FRONT NORTH
OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. SOUTH OF THIS FRONT...A WARM AND A
MODESTLY HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE. MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S EACH
DAY ALTHOUGH CLOUDS MAY INHIBIT TEMPS FROM REACHING 80F IN SOME
LOCATIONS ON MON.

BOTH THE 00Z NAM/GFS PROG A MID-LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS
CURRENTLY OVER THE TN VLY TO SLOWLY MOVE WD THRU THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION ON MON. LIFT/MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IN CONJUNCTION WITH
DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE CWA. POPS
HIGHEST TOWARD CENTRAL VA/SRN MD BUT STILL IN CHANCE RANGE.

MID-LVL RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD TUE AND WED AFTER THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EXITS THE AREA. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LOW
TUE AND WED DUE TO AN ABSENCE OF ORGANIZED LIFT AND A
STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. KEPT FCST DRY FOR MOST OF THE
I-95 CORRIDOR AND CHSPK BAY AS WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL LIMIT HOW
FAR EAST CONVECTION PROPAGATES ONCE INITIATED OVER THE MTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGIONS WED NGT AND THU BEFORE PASSING THRU
THE AREA ON FRI. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ACCORDINGLY
INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK AND WILL BE HIGHEST WITH FROPA. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL TREND MUCH COOLER IN
WAKE OF FROPA FRI INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE
PRESENCE OF IFR/LIFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THIS MORNING.
CONFIDENCE LOWERS TO MODERATE REGARDING THE ENDING TIME OF THESE
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. HAVE FAVORED LAMP GUIDANCE ON KEEPING IFR UNTIL
17-18Z. DESPITE HIGH SUN ANGLE...THESE CONDITIONS COULD LINGER
LONGER GIVEN EASTERLY FLOW. ANY IMPROVEMENT THAT OCCURS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AS A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. EVEN IF
EASTERLY FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST...A DEGRADATION TO
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT PER GUIDANCE. THE ONLY TAF
SITE WITH THE INCLUSION OF THUNDER IN THE GRIDS IS CHO...REST OF THE
SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BE TOO STABLE FOR THUNDER AND ONLY SHRA WAS
MENTIONED IN TAFS.

IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO START THE DAY MON BEFORE MRNG STRATUS/
FOG MIX OUT FROM W TO E. PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MON
AFTN ALTHOUGH BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE.
DIURNAL FOG/LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE AT NGT AND ERY IN THE MRNG EACH
DAY IN THE MIDWEEK. CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE LOW DURING THIS
TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
EASTERLY FLOW STARTS TO BECOME SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MODELS FORECAST WINDS TO INCREASE...AND SOUTHEAST WINDS
TEND TO BE ENHANCED OVER THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER AND UP THE
BAY. SCA IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR THESE AREAS. ITS
POSSIBLE THAT THE SCA COULD NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE OVERNIGHT
FOR SOME OF THESE AREAS.

LGT SLY FLOW ERY IN THE WEEK WILL STRENGTHEN LATER IN THE WEEK. SCA
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY THU...WHEN A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DEPARTURES WERE ABOUT 1/2 FT ON THE BAY AND CLOSE TO 1 FT ON THE
UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE ANOMALIES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN TIDAL FLOODING DURING THE NEXT HIGH TIDE. AND
IF THESE ANOMALIES REMAIN THE SAME...NO FLOODING SHOULD OCCUR WITH
THE SUBSEQUENT HIGH TIDE CYCLE EITHER. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE
LATEST CBOFS FORECAST. HOWEVER...AS WINDS TURN MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND THEN SOUTH...DEPARTURES MAY INCREASE MONDAY INCREASING THE RISK
FOR MINOR TIDAL FLOODING AT SENSITIVE LOCATIONS.

WATER LEVELS SHOULD TICK UPWARD ERY NEXT WEEK WITH SLY FLOW
PERSISTING AND A WAXING GIBBOUS MOON. THIS FAR OUT...STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY IF POSITIVE ANOMALIES INCREASE ENOUGH TO REACH MINOR
THRESHOLD.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ531-532-539-540.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ533-534-537-541-543.

&&

$$
PELOQUIN/KLEIN

000
FXUS61 KRNK 190603
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
203 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL OHIO INTO NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.
THIS FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT...ACTING AS LOW LEVEL SUPPORT TO SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 945 PM EDT SATURDAY...

WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE COVERS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA WITH
EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS. SO FAR NOT MUCH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS
IT HAS BEEN CONFINED TO THE NC PIEDMONT. HEAVIEST RAIN ACTIVITY IS
MOVING UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PIEDMONT OF NC FROM
DANVILLE SOUTHEAST TO RALEIGH NC. SOME OF THIS HEAVY RAIN WILL
LIKELY SKIRT OUR CWA OVERNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR A HALF INCH TO
AN INCH OF RAIN VCNTY OF YANCEYVILLE AND SOUTH BOSTON. ENHANCED
RAINFALL...MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS...ALSO LIKELY TO OCCUR RIGHT
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT WILL EXIST DUE TO
THE SHALLOW EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE UPPER LOW IS STILL
CENTERED WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS...SO THREAT OF SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED EVEN WEST OF THE MTNS OVERNIGHT. CONVERGENT FLOW FROM THE
WESTERLIES INTERSECTING THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES STILL POINTS
TOWARD POTENTIAL FOR PERSISTENT MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
RAIN FOR THE NC MTNS. WILL LEAVE FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS AREA INTACT
FOR NOW ALTHOUGH RAIN AMOUNTS THE LAST 6 HOURS HAS BEEN UNDER A
QUARTER OF AN INCH. OUR LOCAL WRF SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE AN UPTICK
IN SHOWER INTENSITY OVER THE NC MTNS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

DESPITE THE OVERALL LIGHT RAIN SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...THE
INGREDIENTS REMAIN FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN TO PASS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE SUNDAY EVENING. STILL HAVE A WEAK
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED AGAINST THE APPALACHIANS AS
INDICATED BY LIGHT EASTERLY WIND ACROSS OUR AREA...WHILE A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND 1.75 INCHES TONIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. ALSO...UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...WHICH WILL MAKE FOR SLOW MOVING CELLS.
ALL OF THESE FACTORS MAY LEAD TO VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCING
STORMS THAT WILL BE MORE PULSE VARIETY COMPARED TO WHAT WAS
OBSERVED TODAY. REGARDLESS...THESE RAIN MAKERS MAY RESULT IN FLASH
FLOODING... ESPECIALLY IF THE CELLS BEGIN TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME
LOCATIONS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HIGH DEWPOINTS AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL
MAKE FOR A MILD NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS HOLDING IN THE UPPER
50S WEST TO THE LOW/MID 60S EAST. BECAUSE OF THE VERY MOIST
CONDITIONS...WILL ALSO BE IN FOR SOME PATCHY FOG AREAWIDE.

SCATTERED RAINFALL AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT HEATING
FOR SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT
AS DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY IN ALOFT. AS SUCH...WILL BE LOOKING FOR
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE AREA WILL STILL BE INVOLVED WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CURRENT SLOWLY MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. HOWEVER...MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE OFFER SOLUTIONS THAT PLACES THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH
OVER...OR JUST EAST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS WILL BEGIN
A TREND WHERE WE WILL EXPERIENCE LESS PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND A GREATER AMOUNT OVER THE
EAST. MODEL TIMING OF THE TROUGH IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT THAT IT WILL
BE EAST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. TUESDAY WILL BEGIN A DAY OF
TRANSITION BETWEEN THE DEPARTING TROUGH ON THE EAST COAST...AND OUR
FOCUS TURNING TO ONE THAT WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IN BETWEEN THE TWO...VERY BRIEF UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SO THAT WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. THE INFLUENCE
OF THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD HELP KEEP THE CONVECTION FROM BECOMING TOO
DEEP.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL TREND MILDER. BY
TUESDAY...HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT WITH A MIX OF 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE AREA ONLY LOOKS TO GET A BRIEF BREAK IN SIGNIFICANT GENEROUS
COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
TIME FRAME. IT WILL BE DURING THIS PERIOD THAT A BRIEF UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA BETWEEN THE PARTING CLOSED LOW
THAT IS CURRENTLY GIVING THE REGION PRECIPITATION...AND THE NEXT
SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT OUR REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
START OF THE NEXT WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH...WE CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR EVEN A FEW STORMS DURING THE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALREADY BRINING
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM.

OUR NEXT SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL CLOSED LOW THAT WILL PINWHEEL AROUND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. PLENTY OF GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF
THIS SYSTEM. ALSO...PERIODIC BITS OF ENERGY WILL SPIRAL EASTWARD
FROM THE MAIN SYSTEM AND COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PROMOTE A
GENEROUS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT
LEAST THE START OF THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES AS TO THE
SPEED OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. HPC GUIDANCE IS FAVORING
A SLOWER SOLUTION THAT IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE OPERATIONAL 12Z/8AM
GFS THAT DOESN/T HAVE THE FRONT EXITING THE AREA UNTIL FRIDAY
EVENING. HAVE FOLLOW CLOSELY WITH THIS SCENARIO.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL TREND
COOLER...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH MID 60S TO NEAR 70 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 155 AM EDT SUNDAY...

SOUTHEAST SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD IFR
TO LIFR FOG AND STRATUS EARLY THIS MORNING AT ROA/LYH/DAN/BCB.
CEILINGS AT BLF AND LWB WILL BE PRIMARILY MVFR. LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN WILL CONTINUE AT THE TAFS SITES THROUGH 12Z/8AM.

CHALLENGING TO PICK A WINDOW WITH NO PRECIPITATION DURING THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD. FOR NOW HAVE MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON DRY.
AS SHORT WAVE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SLOWLY APPROACHES THE
FORECAST AREA...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MORE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MOST LIKELY SITES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAN AND BLF BUT
THIS WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT IN GETTING SOME HEATING DURING THE
DAY. FLOW REMAINS SOUTHEAST TONIGHT SO EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER
BUT STAY IN THE MVFR TO IFR RANGE.

CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. EXPECT TUESDAY TO BE THE BEST BET FOR
DECENT FLYING CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON AIRMASS
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS STILL POSSIBLE. NEXT FRONT APPROACHES ON
WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING. THIS FRONT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE IN A BIG HURRY AND LOOKS TO BRING MVFR
CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY IFR AT NIGHT...TO TAF SITES FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ009-015.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ001-002-
     018.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 190227
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1027 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. THIS
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE NORTH ON SUNDAY...AND MOVE NORTH
OF THE REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A STATIONARY FRONT/BOUNDARY
OVER NC...WITH A RATHER BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED FROM
KY DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS. LATEST RADAR SHOWS THE MORE ORGANIZED
ACTIVITY FROM EARLIER IN THE EVENING NOW OFF THE COAST...BUT WITH
ANOTHER BATCH OF MOISTURE PUSHING NORTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VA FROM
CENTRAL NC.

TOUGH CALL AS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THIS NEXT ROUND. MODELS GENLY
CONFINE IT TO PIEDMONT COUNTIES SOUTH OF FVX...BUT WILL BROAD-
BRUSH SOME LIKELY/60% POPS OVER S CENTRAL VA AS WELL AS INTERIOR NE
NC THROUGH 07Z...WITH 40-50% OVER MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA
(EXCEPT WILL ALSO CARRY LIKELY POPS ACRS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
SHORE). DUE TO FAIRLY WEAK MID/UPPER DYNAMICS DO NOT EXPECT THE
AMOUNT OF COVERAGE OR INTENSITY OF PRECIP AS LAST NIGHT.
CONCERNING TSTMS...WILL KEEP MENTION OF ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER
FAR SOUTHERN VA/NE NC GOING AFTER MIDNIGHT WHERE ML CAPE ON THE
ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG PERSISTS (JUST SHRA FARTHER NORTH). MIN
TEMPS DROP VERY LITTLE FROM CURRENT VALUES WITH MAINLY OVC SKIES
AND MIXING...LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. ADDED FOG TO NW
SECTIONS OF THE CWA PER LATEST OBS...ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING VSBYS
TO DROP TO MUCH LESS THAN 1 MILE DUE TO CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS THE STALLED FRONT
BEGINS TO LIFT NWD. ALSO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OH/KY AREA
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY. PCPN IS EXPECTED TO
BE MOST WIDESPREAD OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY PER
MODEL GUIDANCE WHERE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE BEST. POPS INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS SRN PORTIONS. AS THE TROUGH MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST...PCPN DECREASES OVER WRN PORTIONS BY MONDAY AFTN.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE WARMER...GENERALLY IN
THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS NEAR THE COAST.
LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 60S.

DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...FURTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA. PCPN DIMINISHES BY AROUND MIDNIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT. SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTN
MAINLY OVER SRN VA/NE NORTH CAROLINA. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ARE
FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE MID TO UPR 80S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

72 HR QPF TOTALS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH
LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT TO AROUND
A HALF INCH TO AN INCH TOWARD THE COAST. SOME ISSUES ON AREA
RIVERS ARE PSBL EARLY THIS COMING WEEK. SEE HYDRO SECTION BELOW.
AT THIS TIME...THERE ARE NO PLANS FOR A FLOOD WATCH BUT THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS SIMILAR OVER THIS TIME PERIOD WITH THE TIMING OF ANOTHER TROF
DEEPING AT 500 MB TOWARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL USHER A
STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE
FRONT WILL HAVE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. BEFORE THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. SOUTH OF THIS AREA WILL HAVE
GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. COULD SEE AN
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM NORTH
ALONG THE BOUNDARY COULD PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA
DURING THE EVENINGS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL
THE FRONT PASSES. THEN TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK ON SATURDAY TO AT
OR BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS CONT TO DEVEOP OVER THE REGION
AS SE-S FLOW BRINGS LOTS OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. A STNRY FRONT
OVER NC WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA BY LATE SUN INTO MON.
THE FRONT WILL ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWER/TSTMS ACROSS THE
REGION. CIGS AND VSBY HAVE BEEN VERY DIFFICULT TO FORECAST. IFR
CONDS NOW OCCURING AT RIC AND SBY WHILE OTHER TERMINALS HAVE
MVFR/VFR CONDS. MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE CWA FROM
THE SW DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND PERSIST INTO EARLY SUN
BEFORE THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MVFR/IFR CIGS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AT MOST TERMINALS WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED BY
PRECIP AND SE FLOW. EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CONDS BY SUN
AFTN BUT THERE WILL CONT TO BE A CHC FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO MON AS
WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES THRU THE REGION. THINK THERE MIGHT BE CHC
FOR IFR FOG ESP FOR MON NIGHT AS HIGH MOVES OVER AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
DIFFICULT FORECAST INITIALLY TO SEE IF WE GET TO SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS ON THE BAY. ALL HIGH RES MODELS WOULD SUPPORT A PERIOD OF
SMALL CRAFT WINDS INTO THIS EVENING. SEEING WINDS STAYING CLOSE BUT
JUST UNDER SMALL CRAFT AT 19Z. EXPECT THAT BY 20Z MOST SITES WILL
HAVE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS. THIS WIND INCREASE SEEMS TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY SOUTH
OF THE AREA INCREASING THE SOUTHEAST WINDS. WITH CONTINUED EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT WILL SEE SEAS INCREASE TO 5 FEET ALONG THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL DROP BACK TO UNDER 5 FEET ON
SUNDAY. WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH AND GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY
ON SUNDAY AND THEN SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS. THE WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH FROM
NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND FINALLY BE NORTH OF THE WATERS
ON MONDAY A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE MIDWEST
AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE COAST BY MONDAY NIGHT. THESE FEATURES WILL
CONTINUE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL OVER THE PIEDMONT AND RIDGES TO THE WEST ARE FORECAST TO
BRING SIGNIFICANT RISES TO AREA RIVERS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOME
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE ACTION STAGE AND MAY POSSIBLY
HAVE MINOR FLOODING. THIS WILL DEPEND ON WHICH BASINS LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL SETS UP WHICH IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AKQ 88D RADAR IS BACK IN SERVICE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/LSA
SHORT TERM...LSA
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...JEF/JAO
MARINE...JAB
HYDROLOGY...AKQ
EQUIPMENT...AKQ

000
FXUS61 KRNK 190201
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1001 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL OHIO INTO NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.
THIS FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT...ACTING AS LOW LEVEL SUPPORT TO SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY EVENING/...
AS OF 945 PM EDT SATURDAY...

WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE COVERS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA WITH
EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS. SO FAR NOT MUCH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS
IT HAS BEEN CONFINED TO THE NC PIEDMONT. HEAVIEST RAIN ACTIVITY IS
MOVING UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PIEDMONT OF NC FROM
DANVILLE SOUTHEAST TO RALEIGH NC. SOME OF THIS HEAVY RAIN WILL
LIKELY SKIRT OUR CWA OVERNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR A HALF INCH TO
AN INCH OF RAIN VCNTY OF YANCYVILLE AND SOUTH BOSTON. ENHANCED
RAINFALL...MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS...ALSO LIKELY TO OCCUR RIGHT
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT WILL EXIST DUE TO
THE SHALLOW EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE UPPER LOW IS STILL
CENTERED WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS...SO THREAT OF SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED EVEN WEST OF THE MTNS OVERNIGHT. CONVERGENT FLOW FROM THE
WESTERLIES INTERSECTING THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES STILL POINTS
TOWARD POTENTIAL FOR PERSISTENT MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
RAIN FOR THE NC MTNS. WILL LEAVE FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS AREA INTACT
FOR NOW ALTHOUGH RAIN AMOUNTS THE LAST 6 HOURS HAS BEEN UNDER A
QUARTER OF AN INCH. OUR LOCAL WRF SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE AN UPTICK
IN SHOWER INTENSITY OVER THE NC MTNS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

DESPITE THE OVERALL LIGHT RAIN SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...THE
INGREDIENTS REMAIN FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN TO PASS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE SUNDAY EVENING. STILL HAVE A WEAK
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED AGAINST THE APPALACHIANS AS
INDICATED BY LIGHT EASTERLY WIND ACROSS OUR AREA...WHILE A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND 1.75 INCHES TONIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. ALSO...UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...WHICH WILL MAKE FOR SLOW MOVING CELLS.
ALL OF THESE FACTORS MAY LEAD TO VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCING
STORMS THAT WILL BE MORE PULSE VARIETY COMPARED TO WHAT WAS
OBSERVED TODAY. REGARDLESS...THESE RAIN MAKERS MAY RESULT IN FLASH
FLOODING... ESPECIALLY IF THE CELLS BEGIN TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME
LOCATIONS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HIGH DEWPOINTS AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL
MAKE FOR A MILD NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS HOLDING IN THE UPPER
50S WEST TO THE LOW/MID 60S EAST. BECAUSE OF THE VERY MOIST
CONDITIONS...WILL ALSO BE IN FOR SOME PATCHY FOG AREAWIDE.

SCATTERED RAINFALL AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT HEATING
FOR SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT
AS DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY IN ALOFT. AS SUCH...WILL BE LOOKING FOR
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE AREA WILL STILL BE INVOLVED WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CURRENT SLOWLY MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. HOWEVER...MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE OFFER SOLUTIONS THAT PLACES THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH
OVER...OR JUST EAST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS WILL BEGIN
A TREND WHERE WE WILL EXPERIENCE LESS PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND A GREATER AMOUNT OVER THE
EAST. MODEL TIMING OF THE TROUGH IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT THAT IT WILL
BE EAST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. TUESDAY WILL BEGIN A DAY OF
TRANSITION BETWEEN THE DEPARTING TROUGH ON THE EAST COAST...AND OUR
FOCUS TURNING TO ONE THAT WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IN BETWEEN THE TWO...VERY BRIEF UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SO THAT WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. THE INFLUENCE
OF THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD HELP KEEP THE CONVECTION FROM BECOMING TOO
DEEP.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL TREND MILDER. BY
TUESDAY...HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT WITH A MIX OF 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE AREA ONLY LOOKS TO GET A BRIEF BREAK IN SIGNIFICANT GENEROUS
COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
TIME FRAME. IT WILL BE DURING THIS PERIOD THAT A BRIEF UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA BETWEEN THE PARTING CLOSED LOW
THAT IS CURRENTLY GIVING THE REGION PRECIPITATION...AND THE NEXT
SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT OUR REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
START OF THE NEXT WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH...WE CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR EVEN A FEW STORMS DURING THE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALREADY BRINING
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM.

OUR NEXT SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL CLOSED LOW THAT WILL PINWHEEL AROUND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. PLENTY OF GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF
THIS SYSTEM. ALSO...PERIODIC BITS OF ENERGY WILL SPIRAL EASTWARD
FROM THE MAIN SYSTEM AND COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PROMOTE A
GENEROUS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT
LEAST THE START OF THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES AS TO THE
SPEED OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. HPC GUIDANCE IS FAVORING
A SLOWER SOLUTION THAT IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE OPERATIONAL 12Z/8AM
GFS THAT DOESN/T HAVE THE FRONT EXITING THE AREA UNTIL FRIDAY
EVENING. HAVE FOLLOW CLOSELY WITH THIS SCENARIO.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL TREND
COOLER...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH MID 60S TO NEAR 70 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM EDT SATURDAY...

EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN...DRIZZLE...AND FOG WILL ALSO RESTRICT VSBYS
TO 1-3SM AT TIMES. CAN`T RUL OUT A THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT...BUT
MAINLY OVER THE PIEDMONT VCNTY OF KDAN. MODELS INDICATE CHANCE
THAT RAIN MAY BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY VCNTY OF THE BLUE RIDGE
OVERNIGHT. RADAR HAS NOT SUPPORTED THESE TRENDS...SO WILL LEAVE
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. THINK THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS
FORMATION OF LOW STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH A PERSISTENT DRIZZLE OR
LIGHT RAIN. EITHER WAY...FLIGHT CONDITIONS STILL POOR...AND ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. EXPECT TUESDAY TO BE THE BEST BET FOR
DECENT FLYING CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON AIRMASS
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS STILL POSSIBLE. NEXT FRONT APPROACHES
ON WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING. THIS FRONT DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE IN A BIG HURRY AND LOOKS TO BRING MVFR
CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY IFR AT NIGHT...TO TAF SITES FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ009-015.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...PM

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 190125
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
925 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. THIS
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE NORTH ON SUNDAY...AND MOVE NORTH
OF THE REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A STATIONARY FRONT/BOUNDARY
OVER NC...WITH A RATHER BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED FROM
KY DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS. RADAR RETURNS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE PAST FEW HRS...BULK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
NOW CONFINED TO THE PENINSULA/HAMPTON ROADS AND EASTERN SHORE...WITH
A CLUSTER OF TSTMS OVER NE NC (HAVE 60-80% POPS IN THESE AREAS).
ELSEWHERE...HAVE DROPPED POPS DOWN TO ABOUT 30-40% THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING HRS.

TOUGH CALL AS TO OVERNIGHT COVERAGE OF PRECIP...AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY LOOKS TO BE SLOW TO PUSH SE FROM KY (AND WEAKENS WHILE
DOING SO). STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
SCATTERED SHRA/TSTMS ONGOING IN NC/WESTERN VA TO KEEP CHC POPS
GOING OVERNIGHT. LITTLE MOVEMENT EXPECTED WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY
AND DUE TO FAIRLY WEAK MID/UPPER DYNAMICS DO NOT EXPECT THE
AMOUNT OF COVERAGE OR INTENSITY AS LAST NIGHT. CONCERNING
TSTMS...WILL KEEP MENTION OF ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER FAR SOUTHERN
VA/NE NC GOING AFTER MIDNIGHT WHERE ML CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO
1000 J/KG PERSISTS (JUST SHRA FARTHER NORTH). MIN TEMPS DROP VERY
LITTLE FROM CURRENT VALUES WITH MAINLY OVC SKIES AND MIXING...LOW
TO MID 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS THE STALLED FRONT
BEGINS TO LIFT NWD. ALSO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OH/KY AREA
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY. PCPN IS EXPECTED TO
BE MOST WIDESPREAD OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY PER
MODEL GUIDANCE WHERE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE BEST. POPS INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS SRN PORTIONS. AS THE TROUGH MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST...PCPN DECREASES OVER WRN PORTIONS BY MONDAY AFTN.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE WARMER...GENERALLY IN
THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS NEAR THE COAST.
LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 60S.

DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...FURTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA. PCPN DIMINISHES BY AROUND MIDNIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT. SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTN
MAINLY OVER SRN VA/NE NORTH CAROLINA. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ARE
FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE MID TO UPR 80S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

72 HR QPF TOTALS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH
LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT TO AROUND
A HALF INCH TO AN INCH TOWARD THE COAST. SOME ISSUES ON AREA
RIVERS ARE PSBL EARLY THIS COMING WEEK. SEE HYDRO SECTION BELOW.
AT THIS TIME...THERE ARE NO PLANS FOR A FLOOD WATCH BUT THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS SIMILAR OVER THIS TIME PERIOD WITH THE TIMING OF ANOTHER TROF
DEEPING AT 500 MB TOWARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL USHER A
STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE
FRONT WILL HAVE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. BEFORE THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. SOUTH OF THIS AREA WILL HAVE
GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. COULD SEE AN
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM NORTH
ALONG THE BOUNDARY COULD PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA
DURING THE EVENINGS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL
THE FRONT PASSES. THEN TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK ON SATURDAY TO AT
OR BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS CONT TO DEVEOP OVER THE REGION
AS SE-S FLOW BRINGS LOTS OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. A STNRY FRONT
OVER NC WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA BY LATE SUN INTO MON.
THE FRONT WILL ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWER/TSTMS ACROSS THE
REGION. CIGS AND VSBY HAVE BEEN VERY DIFFICULT TO FORECAST. IFR
CONDS NOW OCCURING AT RIC AND SBY WHILE OTHER TERMINALS HAVE
MVFR/VFR CONDS. MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE CWA FROM
THE SW DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND PERSIST INTO EARLY SUN
BEFORE THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MVFR/IFR CIGS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AT MOST TERMINALS WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED BY
PRECIP AND SE FLOW. EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CONDS BY SUN
AFTN BUT THERE WILL CONT TO BE A CHC FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO MON AS
WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES THRU THE REGION. THINK THERE MIGHT BE CHC
FOR IFR FOG ESP FOR MON NIGHT AS HIGH MOVES OVER AREA.



&&

.MARINE...
DIFFICULT FORECAST INITIALLY TO SEE IF WE GET TO SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS ON THE BAY. ALL HIGH RES MODELS WOULD SUPPORT A PERIOD OF
SMALL CRAFT WINDS INTO THIS EVENING. SEEING WINDS STAYING CLOSE BUT
JUST UNDER SMALL CRAFT AT 19Z. EXPECT THAT BY 20Z MOST SITES WILL
HAVE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS. THIS WIND INCREASE SEEMS TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY SOUTH
OF THE AREA INCREASING THE SOUTHEAST WINDS. WITH CONTINUED EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT WILL SEE SEAS INCREASE TO 5 FEET ALONG THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL DROP BACK TO UNDER 5 FEET ON
SUNDAY. WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH AND GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY
ON SUNDAY AND THEN SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS. THE WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH FROM
NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND FINALLY BE NORTH OF THE WATERS
ON MONDAY A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE MIDWEST
AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE COAST BY MONDAY NIGHT. THESE FEATURES WILL
CONTINUE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL OVER THE PIEDMONT AND RIDGES TO THE WEST ARE FORECAST TO
BRING SIGNIFICANT RISES TO AREA RIVERS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOME
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE ACTION STAGE AND MAY POSSIBLY
HAVE MINOR FLOODING. THIS WILL DEPEND ON WHICH BASINS LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL SETS UP WHICH IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AKQ 88D RADAR IS BACK IN SERVICE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/LSA
SHORT TERM...LSA
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...JEF/JAO
MARINE...JAB
HYDROLOGY...
EQUIPMENT...

000
FXUS61 KLWX 190010
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
810 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
WILL DRIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OFF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BLOCKED PATTERN THIS WEEKEND WITH AN UPR TROUGH DRIFTING EAST TO THE
NRN GREAT PLAINS AND AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND A RIDGE IN BETWEEN OVER THE MIDWEST. AT THE SFC...HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OFF THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC COAST WITH THE
STALLED BOUNDARY DRIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT OVER SRN VA.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST IN THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. RAIN/DZ WL SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE BALT- WASH METRO
LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS MOIST SLY LLVL FLOW EXPANDS ACROSS
THE CWA. MIN TEMPS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOW 60S.

SUNDAY IS A WEDGE DAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW...LOW CLOUDS...AND
WIDESPREAD PRECIP. ONLY FLOOD THREAT IS WHERE NW MOVING ACTIVITY
STALLS AND REPEATS OVER THE SAME AREA. THIS WOULD MOST LIKELY BE
OVER THE SWRN ZONES WHERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO
BE LIMITED TO (FAR SW OF DC). WENT A COUPLE DEGREES UNDER
GUIDANCE TO HAVE MAX TEMPS AROUND 70F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WMFNT WL CROSS THE AREA SUN NGT...BRINGING FVRBL MSTR INFLOW AND
GOOD UPGLIDE. SHUD BE A WET EVNG...BUT ANY INSTBY SHUD BE LMTD
AND ELEVATED. GNLY STAYED W/ SHRA INSTEAD OF TSRA.

H5 EAST COAST RDGG WL BE MAINTAINED MON-TUE...WHICH WL KEEP THE
QSTNRY/WMFNT N OF THE CWFA. THEREFORE THE AMS ACRS MD/VA WL BE WARM
AND AT LEAST MARGINALLY UNSTBL. SINCE THERE WL BE A LTL MID-LVL PVA
ARND AND PERHAPS TEMPS SLGTLY COOLER...AREAL CVRG OF TSRA SHUD BE A
BIT BETTER MON VS TUE. HWVR...BOTH DAYS TRENDS SHUD FAVOR DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CNVCTN. ALSO ADDED A PINCH OF AN OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT ON THE
TUE PM ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TROF/CUTOFF H5 LOW IN THE ROCKIES WL GRDLY MIGRATE EWD FOR THE 2ND
HALF OF THE WK...PUSHING A SFC CDFNT INTO AND EVENTUALLY THRU CWFA.
TSRA WED WL ONCE AGN BE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN WITH A FAIR TRRN-BASED
COMPONENT. MAXT MID-UPR 80S...BUT A FEW 90F READINGS NOT OUT OF THE
QSTN.

DETAILS ON PCPN TIMING GETS HARDER TO DISTINGUISH THU-FRI...ALTHO
FROPA ITSELF SHUD BE ON/NEAR FRI. WL NEED TO SEE HOW SUBSEQUENT RUNS
SHAKE OUT. FNT SHUD BE ABLE TO CLR AREA BEFORE STALLING OUT SAT...
BUT IT/LL BE AWFULLY CLOSE AND ATTAINING AN E-W ORIENTATION WRT
MID-LVL FLOW. GOTTA KEEP POPS GOING AT THIS PT...BUT MAXT WL BE BACK
INTO THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IFR CIGS SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE DC METROS THIS EVENING AS
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS...ALONG WITH DRIZZLE...INCREASES. LIFR BY LATE
TONIGHT CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY WITH LITTLE CONDITION IMPROVEMENT
THROUGH TOMORROW. E/SE FLOW 5-10 KT. ANY THUNDER CHANCES LOOK TO BE
THIS EVENING INVOF KCHO AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON AGAIN BY KCHO.
STABILITY FROM THE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THUNDER
SOUTHWEST OF THE DC METROS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

OUTLOOK...
FLGT RESTRICTIONS LKLY SUN EVE DUE TO PCPN/RESIDUAL MSTR INVOF
WMFNT. AOB IFR QUITE PSBL...SPCLY INVOF BWI/MTN.

VFR SHUD PREVAIL FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TIME MON-THU...WITH TWO
EXCEPTIONS...
1...DIURNALLY DRIVEN TSRA WL RESULT IN BRIEF IFR RESTRICTIONS
WHEN/WHERE THEY OCCUR.
2...THERE MAY BE PATCHES OF ELY MRNG MVFR DUE TO FOG.

&&

.MARINE...

SCA IN EFFECT FOR THE LWR PTMC AND LWR CHES BAY OVRNGT.

SLY FLOW WL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE OUTLOOK PD. CHANNELING WL
RESULT IN SCA CONDS SUN AFTN-EVE. LLJ SHUD CONT BYD THAT...BUT AM
HAVING DOUBTS WHETHER IT/LL MAKE IT TO THE WATERS EDGE. SIMILARLY...
SHUD HV ANOTHER SLY CHANNELING EVENT MON NGT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DEPARTURES REMAIN HALF TO 3/4 FOOT ABOVE ASTRO PREDICTION THROUGH
THIS EVENING. NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED. FLOW SLACKENS OVER NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...SO NO INCREASES ARE EXPECTED. SLY FLOW
INCREASES SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON...WILL HAVE TO WATCH THAT HIGH
TIDE FOR POSSIBLE MINOR INUNDATION AT SENSITIVE SITES...BUT AS OF
NOW NO COASTAL FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT SUNDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ531-532-539-540.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ533-
     534-536-537-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT SUNDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ533-534-537-541-543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...BJL/HTS

000
FXUS61 KRNK 182349
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
749 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL OHIO INTO NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ACTING AS LOW LEVEL SUPPORT TO
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT SATURDAY...

RADAR IMAGERY HAS INDICATED THAT WHILE RAINFALL HAS BEEN
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE
BEEN ON THE LIGHT SIDE FOR THE MOST PART. FORECAST MODELS HAVE
ALSO BACKED OFF ON THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS HEADING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THEREFORE DO NOT BELIEVE THAT THE FLOODING
THREAT DISCUSSED EARLIER TODAY IS HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FLOOD
WATCH EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AT THIS TIME. THAT STATED...DO NOT
THINK WE ARE ALTOGETHER OUT OF THE WOODS...SO WILL LET THE EVENING
SHIFT MONITOR RADAR AND REASSESS THE SITUATION LATER THIS EVENING.

DESPITE THE OVERALL LIGHT RAIN SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...THE
INGREDIENT REMAIN FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN TO PASS ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH LATE SUNDAY EVENING. STILL HAVE A WEAK WEDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED AGAINST THE APPALACHIANS AS INDICATED BY
LIGHT EASTERLY WIND ACROSS OUR AREA...WHILE A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH AROUND 1.75 INCHES TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH IS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. ALSO...UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...WHICH WILL MAKE FOR SLOW MOVING CELLS. ALL OF THESE
FACTORS MAY LEAD TO VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCING STORMS THAT WILL
BE MORE PULSE VARIETY COMPARED TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED TODAY.
REGARDLESS...THESE RAIN MAKERS MAY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING...
ESPECIALLY IF THE CELLS BEGIN TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HIGH DEWPOINTS AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL
MAKE FOR A MILD NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS HOLDING IN THE UPPER
50S WEST TO THE LOW/MID 60S EAST. BECAUSE OF THE VERY MOIST
CONDITIONS...WILL ALSO BE IN FOR SOME PATCHY FOG AREAWIDE.

SCATTERED RAINFALL AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT HEATING
FOR SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT
AS DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY IN ALOFT. AS SUCH...WILL BE LOOKING FOR
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE AREA WILL STILL BE INVOLVED WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CURRENT SLOWLY MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. HOWEVER...MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE OFFER SOLUTIONS THAT PLACES THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH
OVER...OR JUST EAST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS WILL BEGIN
A TREND WHERE WE WILL EXPERIENCE LESS PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND A GREATER AMOUNT OVER THE
EAST. MODEL TIMING OF THE TROUGH IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT THAT IT WILL
BE EAST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. TUESDAY WILL BEGIN A DAY OF
TRANSITION BETWEEN THE DEPARTING TROUGH ON THE EAST COAST...AND OUR
FOCUS TURNING TO ONE THAT WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IN BETWEEN THE TWO...VERY BRIEF UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SO THAT WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. THE INFLUENCE
OF THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD HELP KEEP THE CONVECTION FROM BECOMING TOO
DEEP.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL TREND MILDER. BY
TUESDAY...HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT WITH A MIX OF 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE AREA ONLY LOOKS TO GET A BRIEF BREAK IN SIGNIFICANT GENEROUS
COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
TIME FRAME. IT WILL BE DURING THIS PERIOD THAT A BRIEF UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA BETWEEN THE PARTING CLOSED LOW
THAT IS CURRENTLY GIVING THE REGION PRECIPITATION...AND THE NEXT
SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT OUR REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
START OF THE NEXT WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH...WE CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR EVEN A FEW STORMS DURING THE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALREADY BRINING
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM.

OUR NEXT SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL CLOSED LOW THAT WILL PINWHEEL AROUND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. PLENTY OF GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF
THIS SYSTEM. ALSO...PERIODIC BITS OF ENERGY WILL SPIRAL EASTWARD
FROM THE MAIN SYSTEM AND COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PROMOTE A
GENEROUS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT
LEAST THE START OF THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES AS TO THE
SPEED OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. HPC GUIDANCE IS FAVORING
A SLOWER SOLUTION THAT IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE OPERATIONAL 12Z/8AM
GFS THAT DOESN/T HAVE THE FRONT EXITING THE AREA UNTIL FRIDAY
EVENING. HAVE FOLLOW CLOSELY WITH THIS SCENARIO.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL TREND
COOLER...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH MID 60S TO NEAR 70 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM EDT SATURDAY...

EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN...DRIZZLE...AND FOG WILL ALSO RESTRICT VSBYS
TO 1-3SM AT TIMES. CAN`T RUL OUT A THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT...BUT
MAINLY OVER THE PIEDMONT VCNTY OF KDAN. MODELS INDICATE CHANCE
THAT RAIN MAY BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY VCNTY OF THE BLUE RIDGE
OVERNIGHT. RADAR HAS NOT SUPPORTED THESE TRENDS...SO WILL LEAVE
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. THINK THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS
FORMATION OF LOW STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH A PERSISTENT DRIZZLE OR
LIGHT RAIN. EITHER WAY...FLIGHT CONDITIONS STILL POOR...AND ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. EXPECT TUESDAY TO BE THE BEST BET FOR
DECENT FLYING CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON AIRMASS
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS STILL POSSIBLE. NEXT FRONT APPROACHES
ON WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING. THIS FRONT DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE IN A BIG HURRY AND LOOKS TO BRING MVFR
CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY IFR AT NIGHT...TO TAF SITES FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR VAZ009-015.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...PM

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 182339
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
739 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. THIS
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE NORTH ON SUNDAY...AND MOVE NORTH
OF THE REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A STATIONARY FRONT/BOUNDARY
OVER NC...WITH A RATHER BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED FROM
KY DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS. RADAR RETURNS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE PAST FEW HRS...BULK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
NOW CONFINED TO THE PENINSULA/HAMPTON ROADS AND EASTERN SHORE...WITH
A CLUSTER OF TSTMS OVER NE NC (HAVE 60-80% POPS IN THESE AREAS).
ELSEWHERE...HAVE DROPPED POPS DOWN TO ABOUT 30-40% THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING HRS.

TOUGH CALL AS TO OVERNIGHT COVERAGE OF PRECIP...AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY LOOKS TO BE SLOW TO PUSH SE FROM KY (AND WEAKENS WHILE
DOING SO). STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
SCATTERED SHRA/TSTMS ONGOING IN NC/WESTERN VA TO KEEP CHC POPS
GOING OVERNIGHT. LITTLE MOVEMENT EXPECTED WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY
AND DUE TO FAIRLY WEAK MID/UPPER DYNAMICS DO NOT EXPECT THE
AMOUNT OF COVERAGE OR INTENSITY AS LAST NIGHT. CONCERNING
TSTMS...WILL KEEP MENTION OF ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER FAR SOUTHERN
VA/NE NC GOING AFTER MIDNIGHT WHERE ML CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO
1000 J/KG PERSISTS (JUST SHRA FARTHER NORTH). MIN TEMPS DROP VERY
LITTLE FROM CURRENT VALUES WITH MAINLY OVC SKIES AND MIXING...LOW
TO MID 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS THE STALLED FRONT
BEGINS TO LIFT NWD. ALSO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OH/KY AREA
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY. PCPN IS EXPECTED TO
BE MOST WIDESPREAD OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY PER
MODEL GUIDANCE WHERE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE BEST. POPS INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS SRN PORTIONS. AS THE TROUGH MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST...PCPN DECREASES OVER WRN PORTIONS BY MONDAY AFTN.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE WARMER...GENERALLY IN
THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS NEAR THE COAST.
LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 60S.

DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...FURTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA. PCPN DIMINISHES BY AROUND MIDNIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT. SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTN
MAINLY OVER SRN VA/NE NORTH CAROLINA. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ARE
FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE MID TO UPR 80S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

72 HR QPF TOTALS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH
LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT TO AROUND
A HALF INCH TO AN INCH TOWARD THE COAST. SOME ISSUES ON AREA
RIVERS ARE PSBL EARLY THIS COMING WEEK. SEE HYDRO SECTION BELOW.
AT THIS TIME...THERE ARE NO PLANS FOR A FLOOD WATCH BUT THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS SIMILAR OVER THIS TIME PERIOD WITH THE TIMING OF ANOTHER TROF
DEEPING AT 500 MB TOWARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL USHER A
STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE
FRONT WILL HAVE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. BEFORE THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. SOUTH OF THIS AREA WILL HAVE
GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. COULD SEE AN
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM NORTH
ALONG THE BOUNDARY COULD PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA
DURING THE EVENINGS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL
THE FRONT PASSES. THEN TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK ON SATURDAY TO AT
OR BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TRICKY AVIATION FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. SHOWERS
FROM RIC TO SBY WERE SLOWLY PUSHING EAST AND SHOULD MAKE THEIR WAY
TO PHF AROUND 19-20Z. EVEN WITH THE SHOWERS CONDITIONS AT RIC WERE
MVFR AS OF 1730Z AND SHOULD REMAIN MVFR WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR
THROUGH 22Z AS PERIODS OF RAIN REDUCE VSBYS TO JUST BELOW 3SM AND
THE NE FLOW DROPS CEILINGS TO JUST LESS THAN 1KFT. AT SBY
PREVAILING IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND 06Z WHEN
SE WINDS INCREASE AND STRATUS MOVES IN FROM THE OCEAN. THE SHOWERS
NEAR RIC TO PTB SHOULD REACH PHF SHORTLY AFTER 20Z AND MVFR
CONDITIONS AT PFH COULD BECOME BRIEFLY IFR WITH A FEW HEAVER
SHOWERS THROUGH 23Z. ONCE THE COVERAGE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
DECREASES WITH SUNSET MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT PHF.

MORE SHOWERS WERE ONGOING FROM NEAR ECG WEST ALONG THE NC/VA
BORDER ALONG ANOTHER BOUNDARY. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS MAY EXPAND
BRIEFLY BUT THE BULK OF THE RAIN MAY STAY WEST OF ORF AND ECG THIS
AFTN AND EVENING. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS MAY REACH ORF FROM
21Z-02Z BUT SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE VERY SCATTERED AS FAR EAST
AS ORF AND PHF. OVERALL CONDITIONS AT ORF AND PHF SHOULD REMAIN
MVFR WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE IN THE SHOWERS.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RIC WILL BECOME IFR WITH STRATUS OVERNIGHT ALONG
WITH SBY AND REMAIN IFR THROUGH MID MORNING SUNDAY. CLOSER TO THE
COAST THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES REMAIN MVFR OVERNIGHT. FOR
SUNDAY EXPECT MUCH OF THE SAME WITH MVFR-VFR CONDITIONS OVER SE VA
AND NE NC AND MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS AT RIC AND SBY.

&&

.MARINE...
DIFFICULT FORECAST INITIALLY TO SEE IF WE GET TO SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS ON THE BAY. ALL HIGH RES MODELS WOULD SUPPORT A PERIOD OF
SMALL CRAFT WINDS INTO THIS EVENING. SEEING WINDS STAYING CLOSE BUT
JUST UNDER SMALL CRAFT AT 19Z. EXPECT THAT BY 20Z MOST SITES WILL
HAVE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS. THIS WIND INCREASE SEEMS TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY SOUTH
OF THE AREA INCREASING THE SOUTHEAST WINDS. WITH CONTINUED EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT WILL SEE SEAS INCREASE TO 5 FEET ALONG THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL DROP BACK TO UNDER 5 FEET ON
SUNDAY. WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH AND GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY
ON SUNDAY AND THEN SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS. THE WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH FROM
NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND FINALLY BE NORTH OF THE WATERS
ON MONDAY A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE MIDWEST
AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE COAST BY MONDAY NIGHT. THESE FEATURES WILL
CONTINUE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL OVER THE PIEDMONT AND RIDGES TO THE WEST ARE FORECAST TO
BRING SIGNIFICANT RISES TO AREA RIVERS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOME
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE ACTION STAGE AND MAY POSSIBLY
HAVE MINOR FLOODING. THIS WILL DEPEND ON WHICH BASINS LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL SETS UP WHICH IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AKQ 88D RADAR IS BACK IN SERVICE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/LSA
SHORT TERM...LSA
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...JAO
MARINE...JAB
HYDROLOGY...AKQ
EQUIPMENT...AKQ

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 182012
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
412 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND
CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE NORTH
LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WILL PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
OR THE AFTERNOON...LIKELY POPS ARE IN EFFECT THROUGHOUT THE CWA FOR
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON THROUGH 00Z. THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN VIRGINIA MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. MAINLY SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED FURTHER NORTH.

A STATIONARY BOUNDARY CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR
CWA WHILE A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES THROUGH OHIO AND
EASTERN KENTUCKY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN STATES WAS FORCING A WEAK RIDGE BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES.

THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH NO APPRECIABLE MOVEMENT. THIS WILL HELP TO FOCUS
CONVECTION MAINLY OVER SRN PORTIONS THIS EVENING. IN THE MEANTIME
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUED OVER THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE
AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN VIRGINIA.

UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IS WEAK AND EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. IN THE MEANTIME...KEPT LIKELY SHOWERS FOR THE LOWER EASTERN
SHORE AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN NECK WHERE MOS POPS ARE
CONSISTENTLY QUITE HIGH.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH UPR
50S ON THE MD EASTERN SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS THE STALLED FRONT
BEGINS TO LIFT NWD. ALSO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OH/KY AREA
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY. PCPN IS EXPECTED TO
BE MOST WIDESPREAD OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY PER
MODEL GUIDANCE WHERE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE BEST. POPS INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS SRN PORTIONS. AS THE TROUGH MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST...PCPN DECREASES OVER WRN PORTIONS BY MONDAY AFTN.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE WARMER...GENERALLY IN
THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS NEAR THE COAST.
LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 60S.

DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...FURTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA. PCPN DIMINISHES BY AROUND MIDNIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT. SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTN
MAINLY OVER SRN VA/NE NORTH CAROLINA. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ARE
FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE MID TO UPR 80S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

72 HR QPF TOTALS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH
LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT TO AROUND
A HALF INCH TO AN INCH TOWARD THE COAST. SOME ISSUES ON AREA
RIVERS ARE PSBL EARLY THIS COMING WEEK. SEE HYDRO SECTION BELOW.
AT THIS TIME...THERE ARE NO PLANS FOR A FLOOD WATCH BUT THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS SIMILAR OVER THIS TIME PERIOD WITH THE TIMING OF ANOTHER TROF
DEEPING AT 500 MB TOWARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL USHER A
STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE
FRONT WILL HAVE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. BEFORE THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. SOUTH OF THIS AREA WILL HAVE
GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. COULD SEE AN
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM NORTH
ALONG THE BOUNDARY COULD PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA
DURING THE EVENINGS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL
THE FRONT PASSES. THEN TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK ON SATURDAY TO AT
OR BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TRICKY AVIATION FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. SHOWERS
FROM RIC TO SBY WERE SLOWLY PUSHING EAST AND SHOULD MAKE THEIR WAY
TO PHF AROUND 19-20Z. EVEN WITH THE SHOWERS CONDITIONS AT RIC WERE
MVFR AS OF 1730Z AND SHOULD REMAIN MVFR WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR
THROUGH 22Z AS PERIODS OF RAIN REDUCE VSBYS TO JUST BELOW 3SM AND
THE NE FLOW DROPS CEILINGS TO JUST LESS THAN 1KFT. AT SBY
PREVAILING IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND 06Z WHEN
SE WINDS INCREASE AND STRATUS MOVES IN FROM THE OCEAN. THE SHOWERS
NEAR RIC TO PTB SHOULD REACH PHF SHORTLY AFTER 20Z AND MVFR
CONDITIONS AT PFH COULD BECOME BRIEFLY IFR WITH A FEW HEAVER
SHOWERS THROUGH 23Z. ONCE THE COVERAGE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
DECREASES WITH SUNSET MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT PHF.

MORE SHOWERS WERE ONGOING FROM NEAR ECG WEST ALONG THE NC/VA
BORDER ALONG ANOTHER BOUNDARY. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS MAY EXPAND
BRIEFLY BUT THE BULK OF THE RAIN MAY STAY WEST OF ORF AND ECG THIS
AFTN AND EVENING. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS MAY REACH ORF FROM
21Z-02Z BUT SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE VERY SCATTERED AS FAR EAST
AS ORF AND PHF. OVERALL CONDITIONS AT ORF AND PHF SHOULD REMAIN
MVFR WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE IN THE SHOWERS.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RIC WILL BECOME IFR WITH STRATUS OVERNIGHT ALONG
WITH SBY AND REMAIN IFR THROUGH MID MORNING SUNDAY. CLOSER TO THE
COAST THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES REMAIN MVFR OVERNIGHT. FOR
SUNDAY EXPECT MUCH OF THE SAME WITH MVFR-VFR CONDITIONS OVER SE VA
AND NE NC AND MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS AT RIC AND SBY.

&&

.MARINE...
DIFFICULT FORECAST INITIALLY TO SEE IF WE GET TO SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS ON THE BAY. ALL HIGH RES MODELS WOULD SUPPORT A PERIOD OF
SMALL CRAFT WINDS INTO THIS EVENING. SEEING WINDS STAYING CLOSE BUT
JUST UNDER SMALL CRAFT AT 19Z. EXPECT THAT BY 20Z MOST SITES WILL
HAVE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS. THIS WIND INCREASE SEEMS TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY SOUTH
OF THE AREA INCREASING THE SOUTHEAST WINDS. WITH CONTINUED EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT WILL SEE SEAS INCREASE TO 5 FEET ALONG THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL DROP BACK TO UNDER 5 FEET ON
SUNDAY. WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH AND GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY
ON SUNDAY AND THEN SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS. THE WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH FROM
NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND FINALLY BE NORTH OF THE WATERS
ON MONDAY A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE MIDWEST
AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE COAST BY MONDAY NIGHT. THESE FEATURES WILL
CONTINUE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL OVER THE PIEDMONT AND RIDGES TO THE WEST ARE FORECAST TO
BRING SIGNIFICANT RISES TO AREA RIVERS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOME
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE ACTION STAGE AND MAY POSSIBLY
HAVE MINOR FLOODING. THIS WILL DEPEND ON WHICH BASINS LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL SETS UP WHICH IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
CURRENTLY THE AKQ 88D RADAR IS DOWN. TECHNICIAN ON HIS WAY. RETURN
TO SERVICE WILL HOPEFULLY OCCUR EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB/LSA
NEAR TERM...LSA
SHORT TERM...LSA
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...JAO
MARINE...JAB
HYDROLOGY...
EQUIPMENT...

000
FXUS61 KRNK 182009
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
409 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL OHIO INTO NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ACTING AS LOW LEVEL SUPPORT TO
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT SATURDAY...

RADAR IMAGERY HAS INDICATED THAT WHILE RAINFALL HAS BEEN
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE
BEEN ON THE LIGHT SIDE FOR THE MOST PART. FORECAST MODELS HAVE
ALSO BACKED OFF ON THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS HEADING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THEREFORE DO NOT BELIEVE THAT THE FLOODING
THREAT DISCUSSED EARLIER TODAY IS HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FLOOD
WATCH EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AT THIS TIME. THAT STATED...DO NOT
THINK WE ARE ALTOGETHER OUT OF THE WOODS...SO WILL LET THE EVENING
SHIFT MONITOR RADAR AND REASSESS THE SITUATION LATER THIS EVENING.

DESPITE THE OVERALL LIGHT RAIN SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...THE
INGREDIENT REMAIN FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN TO PASS ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH LATE SUNDAY EVENING. STILL HAVE A WEAK WEDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED AGAINST THE APPALACHIANS AS INDICATED BY
LIGHT EASTERLY WIND ACROSS OUR AREA...WHILE A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH AROUND 1.75 INCHES TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH IS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. ALSO...UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...WHICH WILL MAKE FOR SLOW MOVING CELLS. ALL OF THESE
FACTORS MAY LEAD TO VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCING STORMS THAT WILL
BE MORE PULSE VARIETY COMPARED TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED TODAY.
REGARDLESS...THESE RAIN MAKERS MAY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING...
ESPECIALLY IF THE CELLS BEGIN TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HIGH DEWPOINTS AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL
MAKE FOR A MILD NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS HOLDING IN THE UPPER
50S WEST TO THE LOW/MID 60S EAST. BECAUSE OF THE VERY MOIST
CONDITIONS...WILL ALSO BE IN FOR SOME PATCHY FOG AREAWIDE.

SCATTERED RAINFALL AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT HEATING
FOR SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT
AS DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY IN ALOFT. AS SUCH...WILL BE LOOKING FOR
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE AREA WILL STILL BE INVOLVED WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CURRENT SLOWLY MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. HOWEVER...MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE OFFER SOLUTIONS THAT PLACES THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH
OVER...OR JUST EAST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS WILL BEGIN
A TREND WHERE WE WILL EXPERIENCE LESS PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND A GREATER AMOUNT OVER THE
EAST. MODEL TIMING OF THE TROUGH IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT THAT IT WILL
BE EAST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. TUESDAY WILL BEGIN A DAY OF
TRANSITION BETWEEN THE DEPARTING TROUGH ON THE EAST COAST...AND OUR
FOCUS TURNING TO ONE THAT WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IN BETWEEN THE TWO...VERY BRIEF UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SO THAT WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. THE INFLUENCE
OF THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD HELP KEEP THE CONVECTION FROM BECOMING TOO
DEEP.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL TREND MILDER. BY
TUESDAY...HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT WITH A MIX OF 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE AREA ONLY LOOKS TO GET A BRIEF BREAK IN SIGNIFICANT GENEROUS
COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
TIME FRAME. IT WILL BE DURING THIS PERIOD THAT A BRIEF UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA BETWEEN THE PARTING CLOSED LOW
THAT IS CURRENTLY GIVING THE REGION PRECIPITATION...AND THE NEXT
SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT OUR REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
START OF THE NEXT WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH...WE CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR EVEN A FEW STORMS DURING THE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALREADY BRINING
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM.

OUR NEXT SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL CLOSED LOW THAT WILL PINWHEEL AROUND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. PLENTY OF GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF
THIS SYSTEM. ALSO...PERIODIC BITS OF ENERGY WILL SPIRAL EASTWARD
FROM THE MAIN SYSTEM AND COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PROMOTE A
GENEROUS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT
LEAST THE START OF THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES AS TO THE
SPEED OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. HPC GUIDANCE IS FAVORING
A SLOWER SOLUTION THAT IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE OPERATIONAL 12Z/8AM
GFS THAT DOESN/T HAVE THE FRONT EXITING THE AREA UNTIL FRIDAY
EVENING. HAVE FOLLOW CLOSELY WITH THIS SCENARIO.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL TREND
COOLER...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH MID 60S TO NEAR 70 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT SATURDAY...

MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS WILL REDEVELOP/LOWER THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGING AGAINST THE APPALACHIANS MAINTAINS A WEAK
EASTERLY FLOW OF VERY MOIST AIR. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND FOG
OVERNIGHT WILL ALSO LEAD TO INTERMITTENT IFR VISIBILITIES...WHICH
WILL IMPROVE AFTER 19/14Z WITH DAYTIME HEATING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH MVFR TO IFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES ACROSS THE AREA.

CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. EXPECT TUESDAY TO BE THE BEST BET FOR
DECENT FLYING CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON AIRMASS
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS STILL POSSIBLE. NEXT FRONT APPROACHES
ON WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING. THIS FRONT DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE IN A BIG HURRY AND LOOKS TO BRING MVFR
CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY IFR AT NIGHT...TO TAF SITES FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR VAZ009-015.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS/PM

000
FXUS61 KLWX 181934
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
334 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
WILL DRIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OFF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BLOCKED PATTERN THIS WEEKEND WITH AN UPR TROUGH DRIFTING EAST TO THE
NRN GREAT PLAINS AND AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND A RIDGE IN BETWEEN OVER THE MIDWEST. AT THE SFC...HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OFF THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC COAST WITH THE
STALLED BOUNDARY DRIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT OVER SRN VA.

SHOWERS AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DRIFT INTO THE
SWRN LWX ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH OF THIS IS AN ONSHORE FLOW
THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL
SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE BALT-WASH METRO LATE THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS MOIST SLY LLVL FLOW EXPANDS ACROSS THE CWA.
CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW MAKE FOR A MILD TONIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS UPR
50S TO LOW 60S.

SUNDAY IS A WEDGE DAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW...LOW CLOUDS...AND
WIDESPREAD PRECIP. ONLY FLOOD THREAT IS WHERE NW MOVING ACTIVITY
STALLS AND REPEATS OVER THE SAME AREA. THIS WOULD MOST LIKELY BE
OVER THE SWRN ZONES WHERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO
BE LIMITED TO (FAR SW OF DC). GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS WAA OVERRIDES
THE LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE/RAIN MAKING MAX TEMPS LOW 70S. WENT A
COUPLE DEGREES UNDER GUIDANCE TO HAVE MAX TEMPS AROUND 70F.
EXPERIENCE WOULD SAY TAKE THE TEMPS LOWER STILL...BUT THE FLOW DOES
LOOK TO VEER SSELY WHICH MAY BRING THE PROGGED WAA.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WMFNT WL CROSS THE AREA SUN NGT...BRINGING FVRBL MSTR INFLOW AND
GOOD UPGLIDE. SHUD BE A WET EVNG...BUT ANY INSTBY SHUD BE LMTD
AND ELEVATED. GNLY STAYED W/ SHRA INSTEAD OF TSRA.

H5 EAST COAST RDGG WL BE MAINTAINED MON-TUE...WHICH WL KEEP THE
QSTNRY/WMFNT N OF THE CWFA. THEREFORE THE AMS ACRS MD/VA WL BE WARM
AND AT LEAST MARGINALLY UNSTBL. SINCE THERE WL BE A LTL MID-LVL PVA
ARND AND PERHAPS TEMPS SLGTLY COOLER...AREAL CVRG OF TSRA SHUD BE A
BIT BETTER MON VS TUE. HWVR...BOTH DAYS TRENDS SHUD FAVOR DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CNVCTN. ALSO ADDED A PINCH OF AN OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT ON THE
TUE PM ACTIVITY.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TROF/CUTOFF H5 LOW IN THE ROCKIES WL GRDLY MIGRATE EWD FOR THE 2ND
HALF OF THE WK...PUSHING A SFC CDFNT INTO AND EVENTUALLY THRU CWFA.
TSRA WED WL ONCE AGN BE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN WITH A FAIR TRRN-BASED
COMPONENT. MAXT MID-UPR 80S...BUT A FEW 90F READINGS NOT OUT OF THE
QSTN.

DETAILS ON PCPN TIMING GETS HARDER TO DISTINGUISH THU-FRI...ALTHO
FROPA ITSELF SHUD BE ON/NEAR FRI. WL NEED TO SEE HOW SUBSEQUENT RUNS
SHAKE OUT. FNT SHUD BE ABLE TO CLR AREA BEFORE STALLING OUT SAT...
BUT IT/LL BE AWFULLY CLOSE AND ATTAINING AN E-W ORIENTATION WRT
MID-LVL FLOW. GOTTA KEEP POPS GOING AT THIS PT...BUT MAXT WL BE BACK
INTO THE 70S.
&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IFR CIGS SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE DC METROS THIS EVENING AS
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS...ALONG WITH DRIZZLE...INCREASES. LIFR BY LATE
TONIGHT CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY WITH LITTLE CONDITION IMPROVEMENT
THROUGH TOMORROW. E/SE FLOW 5-10 KT. ANY THUNDER CHANCES LOOK TO BE
THIS EVENING INVOF KCHO AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON AGAIN BY KCHO.
STABILITY FROM THE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THUNDER
SOUTHWEST OF THE DC METROS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

OUTLOOK...
FLGT RESTRICTIONS LKLY SUN EVE DUE TO PCPN/RESIDUAL MSTR INVOF
WMFNT. AOB IFR QUITE PSBL...SPCLY INVOF BWI/MTN.

VFR SHUD PREVAIL FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TIME MON-THU...WITH TWO
EXCEPTIONS...
1...DIURNALLY DRIVEN TSRA WL RESULT IN BRIEF IFR RESTRICTIONS
WHEN/WHERE THEY OCCUR.
2...THERE MAY BE PATCHES OF ELY MRNG MVFR DUE TO FOG.
&&

.MARINE...
SELY FLOW PICKS UP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 20 TO 22 KT INTO
THIS EVENING. SCA FOR MD WATERS SOUTH OF NORTH BEACH UNTIL 6PM...
EXPANDING UP TO SANDY PT UNTIL 10PM.

SLY FLOW WL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE OUTLOOK PD. CHANNELING WL
RESULT IN SCA CONDS SUN AFTN-EVE. LLJ SHUD CONT BYD THAT...BUT AM
HAVING DOUBTS WHETHER IT/LL MAKE IT TO THE WATERS EDGE. SIMILARLY...
SHUD HV ANOTHER SLY CHANNELING EVENT MON NGT.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DEPARTURES REMAIN HALF TO 3/4 FOOT ABOVE ASTRO PREDICTION THROUGH
THIS EVENING. WITH HALF MOON JUST PASSED...NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED.
FLOW SLACKENS OVER NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...SO NO INCREASES
ARE EXPECTED. SLY FLOW INCREASES SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON...WILL HAVE
TO WATCH THAT HIGH TIDE FOR POSSIBLE MINOR INUNDATION AT SENSITIVE
SITES...BUT AS OF NOW NO COASTAL FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT SUNDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ531-532-539-540.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ533-
     534-536-537-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT SUNDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ533-534-537-541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ532.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/HTS
NEAR TERM...BAJ
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...BAJ/HTS
MARINE...BAJ/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BAJ

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 181753
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
153 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT BACK TO THE
NORTH LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1 PM UPDATE...A PERSISTENT AREA OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA NORTH OF RICHMOND AND EAST TO THE
LOWER EASTERN SHORE AND HAVE LIKELY POPS IN THESE AREAS. OTHER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTN ACROSS
PIEDMONT...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA.

MOST SURFACE WINDS WERE FROM THE EAST WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA.
A POORLY DEFINED FRONT EXTENDS CLOSE TO THE VA/NC BORDER THEN
BENDS NORTHWEST THROUGH WEST VIRGINIA TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
FRONT WILL MEANDER THROUGH THE SAME AREA AND MAY MOVE BACK TO THE
SOUTH OVERNIGHT.

ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTN WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND
1.5 INCHES WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR
THE REST OF THE AFTN...BASED ON TRENDS AND LATEST LAV GUIDANCE.
HAVE MAX READINGS FROM AROUND 70 ON THE LOWER ERN SHORE AND LOW TO
MID 70S N OF INTERSTATE 64 TO UPR 70S ALONG OUR SRN BORDER.

TONIGHT...LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY
WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING DRY
OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP AT LEAST 20 TO 40 PERCENT POPS ACRS THE AREA
DUE TO LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH UPR 50S ON THE MD EASTERN SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE STALLED
FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NWD AS A WARM FRONT SUN AND MON. MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE TIED TO PRECIP COVERAGE AND QPF.

WEAKENING UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO MEANDER IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU SUNDAY. POTENT TROUGH TRAVERSING THE PLAINS SUN
WILL AMPLIFY THE RIDGE OVER THE ERN CONUS...HELPING LIFT THE
STALLED BOUNDARY NWD AS A WARM FRONT LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. AT
THE SAME TIME...INCREASING SW FLOW (H85 WINDS 20-30 KT) WILL
ADVECT NEARLY +2 STD DEV PRECIP WATER VALUES INTO THE REGION.
ADDITIONAL WEAK IMPULSES WILL EJECT EWD FROM THE UPPER
LOW...COMBINING WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SUN. THETA-E
ADVECTION AND TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S WILL MAINTAIN A
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS (500-1000 J/KG CAPE) OVER SRN
VA...RESULTING IN A GOOD CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
COMBINATION OF CONVECTION AND DEEP MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO A THREAT
OF FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OCCURS THIS
AFTERNOON (SAT AFTERNOON).

MIDWEST TROUGH WILL KICK WHATS LEFT OF THE UPPER LOW EWD MONDAY OVER
THE APPALACHIANS...LOCATING OVER THE FA MONDAY. MEANWHILE...THE
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE FA. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND GOOD
DYNAMICS WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WARMER TEMPS WILL RESULT IN GREATER INSTABILITY...WITH ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.

72 HR QPF TOTALS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM OVER 2 INCHES ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT TO JUST OVER HALF AN INCH FOR THE MD ERN SHORE. SE VA/NE
NC COULD SEE TOTALS UPWARDS OF ONE INCH. IN ADDITION TO THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT...SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL OVER THE REGION MAY LEAD
TO RIVER FLOODING CONCERNS.

HI TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 70S NORTH TO LOW
80S SOUTH (NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS) SUN. COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. WARMER MONDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 80S.
AGAIN...COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WX AND ABOVE
NORMAL HI/LO TEMPS ON AVG. FOR TUE...MID-LVL S/W TROF PUSHES
OFFSHORE ERLY IN THE DAY WITH A CHC FOR SHWRS MAINLY OVER SE AREAS.
DECREASING CLDS DURING THE AFTN WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE MID
80S. S/SW FLOW CONTINUES WED AND THU LEADING TO CONTINUED WARM TEMPS
(HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPR 80S) AND A CHC FOR MAINLY DIURNAL SHWRS/TSTMS
WITH WEAK SFC TROFS OVER THE AREA. BEST CHC FOR RAIN WILL BE FRI AS
A COLD FRNT ADVANCES TOWARDS THE AREA. WILL CAP POPS AT 40% FOR
NOW WITH HOW FAR OUT IN TIME THIS IS ALBEIT FAIRLY GOOD
CONSISTENCY AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE FRNTAL TIMING. HI
TEMPS ONLY IN THE UPR 70S TO NEAR 80 FRI DUE TO PRECIP AND
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TRICKY AVIATION FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. SHOWERS
FROM RIC TO SBY WERE SLOWLY PUSHING EAST AND SHOULD MAKE THEIR WAY
TO PHF AROUND 19-20Z. EVEN WITH THE SHOWERS CONDITIONS AT RIC WERE
MVFR AS OF 1730Z AND SHOULD REMAIN MVFR WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR
THROUGH 22Z AS PERIODS OF RAIN REDUCE VSBYS TO JUST BELOW 3SM AND
THE NE FLOW DROPS CEILINGS TO JUST LESS THAN 1KFT. AT SBY
PREVAILING IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND 06Z WHEN
SE WINDS INCREASE AND STRATUS MOVES IN FROM THE OCEAN. THE SHOWERS
NEAR RIC TO PTB SHOULD REACH PHF SHORTLY AFTER 20Z AND MVFR
CONDITIONS AT PFH COULD BECOME BRIEFLY IFR WITH A FEW HEAVER
SHOWERS THROUGH 23Z. ONCE THE COVERAGE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
DECREASES WITH SUNSET MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT PHF.

MORE SHOWERS WERE ONGOING FROM NEAR ECG WEST ALONG THE NC/VA
BORDER ALONG ANOTHER BOUNDARY. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS MAY EXPAND
BRIEFLY BUT THE BULK OF THE RAIN MAY STAY WEST OF ORF AND ECG THIS
AFTN AND EVENING. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS MAY REACH ORF FROM
21Z-02Z BUT SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE VERY SCATTERED AS FAR EAST
AS ORF AND PHF. OVERALL CONDITIONS AT ORF AND PHF SHOULD REMAIN
MVFR WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE IN THE SHOWERS.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RIC WILL BECOME IFR WITH STRATUS OVERNIGHT ALONG
WITH SBY AND REMAIN IFR THROUGH MID MORNING SUNDAY. CLOSER TO THE
COAST THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES REMAIN MVFR OVERNIGHT. FOR
SUNDAY EXPECT MUCH OF THE SAME WITH MVFR-VFR CONDITIONS OVER SE VA
AND NE NC AND MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS AT RIC AND SBY.


&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION IS BEGINNING TO SLOWLY
LIFT NE AS A WARM FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SLOW PROCESS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY INTO TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF CAPE COD AS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A
10-15KT ESE WIND IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH 20KT LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE BAY/LOWER JAMES. SIMILAR SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE OCEAN. HOWEVER...THE ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE WIND
SHOULD ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 5FT LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY
N OF CAPE CHARLES. HENCE SCA FLAGS HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS BEGINNING AT 20Z/4PM THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING THROUGH 04Z/12AM FOR THE BAY/LOWER JAMES AND 10Z/6AM FOR
THE OCEAN. THE WARM FRONT FINALLY CLEARS THE REGION LATER SUNDAY
AFTN/EVE ALLOWING FOR THE WIND TO SHIFT TO S AND EVENTUALLY SW.
SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN AOB 15KT. HOWEVER...A BRIEF INCREASE
IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTN/EVE AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS N OF THE REGION.
SEAS SHOULD LARGELY BE 3-4FT WITH ~2FT WAVES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB/LSA
NEAR TERM...LSA
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JAO
MARINE...AJZ

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 181709
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
109 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT BACK TO THE
NORTH LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1 PM UPDATE...A PERSISTENT AREA OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA NORTH OF RICHMOND AND EAST TO THE
LOWER EASTERN SHORE AND HAVE LIKELY POPS IN THESE AREAS. OTHER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTN ACROSS
PIEDMONT...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA.

MOST SURFACE WINDS WERE FROM THE EAST WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA.
A POORLY DEFINED FRONT EXTENDS CLOSE TO THE VA/NC BORDER THEN
BENDS NORTHWEST THROUGH WEST VIRGINIA TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
FRONT WILL MEANDER THROUGH THE SAME AREA AND MAY MOVE BACK TO THE
SOUTH OVERNIGHT.

ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTN WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND
1.5 INCHES WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR
THE REST OF THE AFTN...BASED ON TRENDS AND LATEST LAV GUIDANCE.
HAVE MAX READINGS FROM AROUND 70 ON THE LOWER ERN SHORE AND LOW TO
MID 70S N OF INTERSTATE 64 TO UPR 70S ALONG OUR SRN BORDER.

TONIGHT...LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY
WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING DRY
OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP AT LEAST 20 TO 40 PERCENT POPS ACRS THE AREA
DUE TO LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH UPR 50S ON THE MD EASTERN SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE STALLED
FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NWD AS A WARM FRONT SUN AND MON. MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE TIED TO PRECIP COVERAGE AND QPF.

WEAKENING UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO MEANDER IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU SUNDAY. POTENT TROUGH TRAVERSING THE PLAINS SUN
WILL AMPLIFY THE RIDGE OVER THE ERN CONUS...HELPING LIFT THE
STALLED BOUNDARY NWD AS A WARM FRONT LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. AT
THE SAME TIME...INCREASING SW FLOW (H85 WINDS 20-30 KT) WILL
ADVECT NEARLY +2 STD DEV PRECIP WATER VALUES INTO THE REGION.
ADDITIONAL WEAK IMPULSES WILL EJECT EWD FROM THE UPPER
LOW...COMBINING WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SUN. THETA-E
ADVECTION AND TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S WILL MAINTAIN A
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS (500-1000 J/KG CAPE) OVER SRN
VA...RESULTING IN A GOOD CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
COMBINATION OF CONVECTION AND DEEP MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO A THREAT
OF FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OCCURS THIS
AFTERNOON (SAT AFTERNOON).

MIDWEST TROUGH WILL KICK WHATS LEFT OF THE UPPER LOW EWD MONDAY OVER
THE APPALACHIANS...LOCATING OVER THE FA MONDAY. MEANWHILE...THE
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE FA. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND GOOD
DYNAMICS WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WARMER TEMPS WILL RESULT IN GREATER INSTABILITY...WITH ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.

72 HR QPF TOTALS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM OVER 2 INCHES ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT TO JUST OVER HALF AN INCH FOR THE MD ERN SHORE. SE VA/NE
NC COULD SEE TOTALS UPWARDS OF ONE INCH. IN ADDITION TO THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT...SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL OVER THE REGION MAY LEAD
TO RIVER FLOODING CONCERNS.

HI TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 70S NORTH TO LOW
80S SOUTH (NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS) SUN. COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. WARMER MONDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 80S.
AGAIN...COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WX AND ABOVE
NORMAL HI/LO TEMPS ON AVG. FOR TUE...MID-LVL S/W TROF PUSHES
OFFSHORE ERLY IN THE DAY WITH A CHC FOR SHWRS MAINLY OVER SE AREAS.
DECREASING CLDS DURING THE AFTN WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE MID
80S. S/SW FLOW CONTINUES WED AND THU LEADING TO CONTINUED WARM TEMPS
(HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPR 80S) AND A CHC FOR MAINLY DIURNAL SHWRS/TSTMS
WITH WEAK SFC TROFS OVER THE AREA. BEST CHC FOR RAIN WILL BE FRI AS
A COLD FRNT ADVANCES TOWARDS THE AREA. WILL CAP POPS AT 40% FOR
NOW WITH HOW FAR OUT IN TIME THIS IS ALBEIT FAIRLY GOOD
CONSISTENCY AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE FRNTAL TIMING. HI
TEMPS ONLY IN THE UPR 70S TO NEAR 80 FRI DUE TO PRECIP AND
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE AREA OF SHOWERS WHICH MOVED ACROSS CENTRAL VA...TIDEWATER AND
NC NC ARE PUSHING OFFSHORE. ONLY A FEW STRAY SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN 5SM OR BETTER
IN ANY LIGHT SHOWERS. CEILING THIS MORNING WILL BE A MIX OF MVFR
AND VFR. BY MID TO LATE MORNING EXPECT MOST LOCATION TO IMPROVE TO
VFR WITH CEILINGS AOB 3KFT. THIS MAY BE SHORT LIVED FOR A PERIOD
LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS A A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL
SLOWLY LIFT SW- NE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL
SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SELY
FLOW. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL LATE THIS MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF REDUCED VSBY IN MODERATE
SHOWERS WHICH START TO DEVELOP AROUND 17-19Z. STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE ALONG WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
IFR STRATUS LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR RIC/PHF/SBY. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA CONTINUES SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
MOIST SE TO SW FLOW CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION IS BEGINNING TO SLOWLY
LIFT NE AS A WARM FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SLOW PROCESS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY INTO TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF CAPE COD AS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A
10-15KT ESE WIND IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH 20KT LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE BAY/LOWER JAMES. SIMILAR SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE OCEAN. HOWEVER...THE ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE WIND
SHOULD ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 5FT LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY
N OF CAPE CHARLES. HENCE SCA FLAGS HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS BEGINNING AT 20Z/4PM THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING THROUGH 04Z/12AM FOR THE BAY/LOWER JAMES AND 10Z/6AM FOR
THE OCEAN. THE WARM FRONT FINALLY CLEARS THE REGION LATER SUNDAY
AFTN/EVE ALLOWING FOR THE WIND TO SHIFT TO S AND EVENTUALLY SW.
SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN AOB 15KT. HOWEVER...A BRIEF INCREASE
IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTN/EVE AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS N OF THE REGION.
SEAS SHOULD LARGELY BE 3-4FT WITH ~2FT WAVES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB/LSA
NEAR TERM...LSA
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...AJZ/JAO
MARINE...AJZ

000
FXUS61 KRNK 181522
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1122 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL OHIO INTO NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA
THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST AND REMAIN ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL PUSH THE FRONT NORTH
OUT OF THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT SATURDAY...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WEDGED AGAINST THE EASTERN FACE OF THE
APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. ONE DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH HAS TRIGGERED WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF NORTH CAROLINA INTO THE MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE...AND EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO SPREAD ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL BE MONITORING THIS ROUND OF RAIN FOR
ANY POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION OR TRAINING...BUT SO FAR THERE
HAVE BEEN NO PROBLEMS REPORTED. CLOUD COVER HAS REMAINED
WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE MORNING...WHICH HAS KEPT A LID ON
INSTABILITY...BUT WILL STILL BE LOOKING FOR AN INCREASE OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES.

STILL MAINTAINING EARLIER CONCERNS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY
RAIN...AND POTENTIAL FLOODING FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
THE WORKWEEK...AS ROUNDS OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASS ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENTLY
OBSERVING A STALLED FRONT SITUATED ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA. SURFACE
WINDS REMAIN FROM THE EAST...BUT WINDS A FEW THOUSAND FEET OFF THE
SURFACE ARE OUT OF THE SOUTH. THIS FRONT WILL SERVE AS LOW LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR RAINFALL AS UNSTABLE AND VERY MOIST AIR LIFTING OVER
THIS BOUNDARY WILL TRANSFORM INTO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE EAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA WILL REACH
AROUND 1.75 INCHES WHICH IS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS...WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL PLACEMENT ON BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
REMAINS EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH BETWEEN 00Z/8PM TONIGHT AND 12Z/8AM
SUNDAY. ALREADY HAVE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS INTO THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE...AND AM STILL DEBATING THE
NEED AND THE LOCATION FOR A FLOOD WATCH FURTHER TO THE EAST.

CLOUDS WILL LIMIT WARM UP TODAY IN ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHERE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
THINNING IN THE CLOUD COVER. USE BIAS CORRECTED MET GUIDANCE AND
LATEST GRIDDED LAMP GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY. DEW POINTS INTO THE
LOWER 60S WILL KEEP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MILD TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 319 AM EDT SATURDAY...

SHORTWAVE THAT CAUSED SO MUCH TROUBLE ACROSS TEXAS ARRIVES IN A
WEAKENED FORM ON SUNDAY...SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
CONSIDERING THE RAIN THAT FELL OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...AND
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ON SATURDAY...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED
FOR THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT AND ALSO NW NC FOR SUNDAY. MODELS ARE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY`S RUNS WHICH ELEVATED PWATS ABOVE 1.5" ACROSS
THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT. PATTERN RECOGNITION WOULD SUGGEST AT LEAST
SOME WATER PROBLEMS DEVELOP...AS UPSLOPE FLOW...NEARBY BACKDOOR
BOUNDARY AND ARRIVING SHORTWAVE HAVE LED TO ISSUES IN THE PAST.
WEAK MBE VELOCITIES SUGGEST SLOW MOVERS AND/OR BACKBUILDERS. WITH
THE WAVE MOVING EAST WITH SOME SINKING MOTION/SOME DRIER AIR AT
H7...EXPECTING LESS COVERAGE ON MONDAY...BUT THERE WILL REMAIN THE
CHANCE FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE DURING PEAK
HEATING. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MONDAY. RELATIVE POP MINIMUM FOR EXTREME WESTERN VA AND SE WEST
VA. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST AND DRIEST DAY OF THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST WITH H5 HEIGHTS RISING THANKS TO A DIGGING MIDWEST
TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT...THE PROCESS OF DECREASING COVER THAT BEGAN ON MONDAY
WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES HEADING OUT OF
THE REGION. ON TUESDAY...WE WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ON THE ACTIVE SIDE AHEAD OF
THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL HAVE A MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK AS COMPARED TO THE ONE OVER THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...ITS PATH WILL ALLOW FOR A SOUTHERLY FETCH OF GULF OF
MEXICO MOISTURE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION WITH INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE START OF FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE
VARIES AS TO HOW QUICKLY THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA...BUT CONSENSUS IS FAIRLY GOOD THAT LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REGARDLESS OF THE
MODEL OF CHOICE. THIS EQUATES TO SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL TREND MILDER THROUGH THE PERIOD THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY...THEN START TO BE COOLER AS CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
BECOME MORE ABUNDANT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM EDT SATURDAY...

PATCHES OF IFR FOG AND IFR CEILINGS...MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE WILL DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING.

A SHORT WAVE CROSSING SLOWLY OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TODAY
WILL TRIGGER WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HIGH CONFIDENCE THIS WILL PRODUCE MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG WITH MVFR TO IFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. EXPECT TUESDAY TO BE THE BEST BET FOR
DECENT FLYING CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON AIRMASS
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS STILL POSSIBLE. NEXT FRONT APPROACHES
ON WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING. THIS FRONT DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE IN A BIG HURRY AND LOOKS TO BRING MVFR
CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY IFR AT NIGHT...TO TAF SITES FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR VAZ009-015.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/NF
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS/PM

000
FXUS61 KLWX 181453
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1053 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED TODAY OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND SOUTHERN MID- ATLANTIC STATES WHILE ONSHORE FLOW
KEEPS THE FORECAST AREA SEASONABLY COOL. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
LIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY..THEN INTO THE NORTHERN MID-
ATLANTIC ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE
EASTERN STATES THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 14Z...FRONTAL BOUNDARY ESTIMATED FROM SFC OBS TO BE LOCATED
OVER NERN NC...THEN EXTENDING WEST ALONG THE VIRGINIA/NORTH
CAROLINA BORDER. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE IS SHIFTING SOUTH FROM
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

UPDATED POPS BASED ON RADAR UNTIL MIDDAY...THEN BASED
AFTERNOON/EVENING GRIDS ON THE 03Z SREF. BLEND OF MAV/MET/SREF WAS
ADJUSTED DOWN FOR SRN CWA ZONES WHERE CLOUDS AND PRECIP SHOULD
KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 60S.

COOL WEDGE WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA TO PRECLUDE
THUNDER EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHWEST CWA THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
WHERE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL SPREAD NORTH ALONG WITH BATCH OF
PRECIP CURRENTLY OVER WRN NC/VA. THEREFORE...CONTINUE TO INCLUDE
CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THIS AREA AND ANY CONVECTION MAY BE EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCERS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS SRN VA ON SUN WHILE SFC
RIDGE FROM HIPRES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL EXTEND WWD INTO NJ
AND PA. SFC PATTERN WILL YIELD A CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE
CWA ON SUN. REMNANT MID-LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MEANDER OVER THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AS IT REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK STEERING
PATTERN OF THE ERN CONUS RIDGE. FLOW VEERS WITH HEIGHT WITH SLY FLOW
AT H8-7 PROMOTING ISENTROPIC LIFT. CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS
EXPECTED ON SUN. THE HEAVIEST QPF AND CAT POPS RESIDE OVER CENTRAL
VA AND LWR SRN MD...WHERE LIFT MAY BECOME ENHANCED NEAR THE BOUNDARY
AND NORTH OF THE MID-LVL TROUGH. MOST OF THE CWA WILL BE WEDGED IN
STABLE MARINE AIRMASS ALTHOUGH LOCATIONS IN CENTRAL VA MAY TAP INTO
SOME INSTABILITY CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
CONDITIONAL RISK FOR FLOODING OVER THESE AREAS IF CONVECTION
DEVELOPS. WPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED CENTRAL VA WITH A SLIGHT RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON SUN.

CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT DIURNAL HEATING/COOLING SUN-SUN
NGT. HIGHS NEAR 70F ON SUN AND LOWS IN THE 60S SUN NGT WILL BE
COMMON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL BE SITUATED ALONG WRN PERIPHERY OF AN
UPPER RIDGE THROUGH MIDWEEK. PERSISTENT AND DEEP RETURN FLOW AROUND
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPLY WARM/MOIST AIR FOR OUR AREA. WITH
THE PREVIOUSLY STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA ON
MON...INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE GREATER IN WARM SECTOR. DAILY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE HIGHEST DURING THE PEAK
HEATING HRS. DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...MON EXPECTED
TO HAVE THE BEST COVERAGE OF PRECIP WITH THE LINGERING MID-LVL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEARBY. POPS TUE AND WED WERE CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT THE PRIMARY DRIVING MECHANISM
FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION. MAX TEMPS NEAR 80F ON MON AND MU80S TUE/WED.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE LATE WEEK WITH THE APPROACH
OF A MIDWEST TROUGH. WARM/HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE DURING THIS
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR CIGS CONTINUE TO SPREAD NE TODAY WITH IFR/LIFR TONIGHT AND
PROBABLY THROUGH SUNDAY.LIFR CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT. PASSING
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. A LULL EXPECTED IN
PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SHOWERS EXPAND ACROSS THE DC METROS.
ANY THUNDER CHANCE DOWN BY KCHO AT THIS POINT.

MVFR CIGS SUN WITH ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING. CIGS LIKELY RETURN TO
IFR SUN NGT. WARM FRONT EVENTUALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION ON MON.
FLIGHT RULES RETURN TO VFR ERY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHEAST FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED TO THE SOUTH OF THE
WATERS. EXPANDED SCA TO SOUTH OF NORTH BEACH AND THE MIDDLE TIDAL
POTOMAC WHERE SELY FLOW OFTEN ENHANCES. A LULL TO AROUND 15 KT IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDAY WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO AROUND 20
KT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ELY FLOW 10-15 KT ON SUN. WINDS BECOME SLY ONCE A WARM FRONT PASSES
THRU ON MON. SCA MAY BE NEEDED MON FOR THE MARINE ZONES THAT ARE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO SLY-CHANNELING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL REMAIN ABOUT 3/4 FT TODAY AS ONSHORE FLOW
MAINTAINS THE LEVEL. SELY FLOW BECOMES SLY MONDAY WHEN A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TIDAL LVLS
THOUGH THE THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW JUST
PAST HALF MOON.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ533-
     534-536-537-543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...JACKSON
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...BPP/JRK

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 181438
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1038 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT
BACK TO THE NORTH LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM UPDATE...A PERSISTENT AREA OF SHOWERS CONTINUES ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA NORTH OF RICHMOND AND EAST TO THE LOWER
EASTERN SHORE. MOST SURFACE WINDS WERE FROM THE E WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS A FEW THOUSAND FEET PER AKQ VAD WIND AND RAOB FROM WAL AND
LWX. THIS INDICATES LOW LEVEL ADVECTION OF MOISTURE AND WARM AIR
WILL CONTINUE DESPITE RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE.

A FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.
WHERE THIS CROSSES VA/WV IS NOT WELL DEFINED. THE FRONT OVER
NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA EXTENDS EAST-WEST JUST SOUTH OF THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND. THIS WILL LIKELY BE A FOCUS FOR MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN
SHOWERS. THAT MAY AFFECT COUNTIES NORTH OF THE ALBEMARLE. OTHER
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS INDICATED THIS AFTN FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL VA AND PIEDMONT COUNTIES. HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR THIS AREA AFT
19Z. REST OF THE CWA HAS CHC POPS THE REST OF THE DAY.

ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTN WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5
INCHES WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AFFECTED BY BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST WHICH
WILL BE MOST ABUNDANT OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS. HAVE MAX READINGS FROM
AROUND 70 ON THE LOWER ERN SHORE AND LOW TO MID 70S N OF INTERSTATE
64 TO AROUND 80 ALONG OUR SRN BORDER.

TONIGHT...SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE AREA AS THE UPR LOW OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY MOVES SLOWLY TO
THE EAST. WAA WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND PCPN WILL LIKELY FOCUS
OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND ONTO THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH UPR 50S
ON THE MD EASTERN SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE STALLED
FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NWD AS A WARM FRONT SUN AND MON. MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE TIED TO PRECIP COVERAGE AND QPF.

WEAKENING UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO MEANDER IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU SUNDAY. POTENT TROUGH TRAVERSING THE PLAINS SUN
WILL AMPLIFY THE RIDGE OVER THE ERN CONUS...HELPING LIFT THE
STALLED BOUNDARY NWD AS A WARM FRONT LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. AT
THE SAME TIME...INCREASING SW FLOW (H85 WINDS 20-30 KT) WILL
ADVECT NEARLY +2 STD DEV PRECIP WATER VALUES INTO THE REGION.
ADDITIONAL WEAK IMPULSES WILL EJECT EWD FROM THE UPPER
LOW...COMBINING WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SUN. THETA-E
ADVECTION AND TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S WILL MAINTAIN A
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS (500-1000 J/KG CAPE) OVER SRN
VA...RESULTING IN A GOOD CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
COMBINATION OF CONVECTION AND DEEP MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO A THREAT
OF FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OCCURS THIS
AFTERNOON (SAT AFTERNOON).

MIDWEST TROUGH WILL KICK WHATS LEFT OF THE UPPER LOW EWD MONDAY OVER
THE APPALACHIANS...LOCATING OVER THE FA MONDAY. MEANWHILE...THE
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE FA. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND GOOD
DYNAMICS WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WARMER TEMPS WILL RESULT IN GREATER INSTABILITY...WITH ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.

72 HR QPF TOTALS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM OVER 2 INCHES ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT TO JUST OVER HALF AN INCH FOR THE MD ERN SHORE. SE VA/NE
NC COULD SEE TOTALS UPWARDS OF ONE INCH. IN ADDITION TO THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT...SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL OVER THE REGION MAY LEAD
TO RIVER FLOODING CONCERNS.

HI TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 70S NORTH TO LOW
80S SOUTH (NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS) SUN. COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. WARMER MONDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 80S.
AGAIN...COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WX AND ABOVE
NORMAL HI/LO TEMPS ON AVG. FOR TUE...MID-LVL S/W TROF PUSHES
OFFSHORE ERLY IN THE DAY WITH A CHC FOR SHWRS MAINLY OVER SE AREAS.
DECREASING CLDS DURING THE AFTN WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE MID
80S. S/SW FLOW CONTINUES WED AND THU LEADING TO CONTINUED WARM TEMPS
(HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPR 80S) AND A CHC FOR MAINLY DIURNAL SHWRS/TSTMS
WITH WEAK SFC TROFS OVER THE AREA. BEST CHC FOR RAIN WILL BE FRI AS
A COLD FRNT ADVANCES TOWARDS THE AREA. WILL CAP POPS AT 40% FOR
NOW WITH HOW FAR OUT IN TIME THIS IS ALBEIT FAIRLY GOOD
CONSISTENCY AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE FRNTAL TIMING. HI
TEMPS ONLY IN THE UPR 70S TO NEAR 80 FRI DUE TO PRECIP AND
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE AREA OF SHOWERS WHICH MOVED ACROSS CENTRAL VA...TIDEWATER AND
NC NC ARE PUSHING OFFSHORE. ONLY A FEW STRAY SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN 5SM OR BETTER
IN ANY LIGHT SHOWERS. CEILING THIS MORNING WILL BE A MIX OF MVFR
AND VFR. BY MID TO LATE MORNING EXPECT MOST LOCATION TO IMPROVE TO
VFR WITH CEILINGS AOB 3KFT. THIS MAY BE SHORT LIVED FOR A PERIOD
LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS A A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL
SLOWLY LIFT SW- NE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL
SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SELY
FLOW. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL LATE THIS MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF REDUCED VSBY IN MODERATE
SHOWERS WHICH START TO DEVELOP AROUND 17-19Z. STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE ALONG WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
IFR STRATUS LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR RIC/PHF/SBY. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA CONTINUES SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
MOIST SE TO SW FLOW CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION IS BEGINNING TO SLOWLY
LIFT NE AS A WARM FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SLOW PROCESS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY INTO TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF CAPE COD AS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A
10-15KT ESE WIND IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH 20KT LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE BAY/LOWER JAMES. SIMILAR SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE OCEAN. HOWEVER...THE ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE WIND
SHOULD ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 5FT LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY
N OF CAPE CHARLES. HENCE SCA FLAGS HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS BEGINNING AT 20Z/4PM THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING THROUGH 04Z/12AM FOR THE BAY/LOWER JAMES AND 10Z/6AM FOR
THE OCEAN. THE WARM FRONT FINALLY CLEARS THE REGION LATER SUNDAY
AFTN/EVE ALLOWING FOR THE WIND TO SHIFT TO S AND EVENTUALLY SW.
SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN AOB 15KT. HOWEVER...A BRIEF INCREASE
IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTN/EVE AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS N OF THE REGION.
SEAS SHOULD LARGELY BE 3-4FT WITH ~2FT WAVES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ630>632-634-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB/LSA
NEAR TERM...SAM/LSA
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...AJZ/JAO
MARINE...AJZ

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 181153
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
753 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT BACK TO THE
NORTH LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE
OH VALLEY...BENDING AROUND THE LEE SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO N
CNTRL NC. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY LATE
LAST NIGHT...PROGRESSING SLOWLY EWD. WHILE LOW LEVELS REMAINED
FAIRLY DRY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST...PRECIP WATER
VALUES INCREASED TO NEARLY 1.5 INCHES (+1 STD DEV) HELPING
OVERCOME THE DRY LOW LEVELS. IN ADDITION...UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE...MARGINAL ELEVATED CAPE (SHOWALTER INDEX AROUND -4)
AND OMEGA ALOFT HAVE MAINTAINED THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING. EVEN WITH TEMPERATURES AT THE SFC IN THE LOW/MID 60S.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE GENERALLY RANGED FROM A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH UP TO AN INCH AND A HALF. BASED ON OMEGA FIELDS...EXPECT
SHOWERS TO KEEP SLOWLY PROGRESSING NEWD ACROSS THE FA THROUGH
EARLY MORNING...BEFORE COMING TO AN END MID MORNING.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...UPPER LOW WILL LOCATE OVER THE TN VALLEY. LOW
LEVEL SW FLOW WILL INCREASE BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TN
VALLEY AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SE COAST. RESULT WILL BE
CONTINUED ADVECTION OF ANOMALOUS PRECIP WATER VALUES INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC. ADDITIONAL WEAK IMPULSES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE SE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW...EJECTING NEWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.
COMBINATION OF WEAK IMPULSES...AFTERNOON HEATING...STALLED
BOUNDARY AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEST COVERAGE EXPECTED TO
BE OVER THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN PROGRESSING EWD LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. BEST COVERAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO BE OVER SRN VA...CLOSEST TO BEST THETA E ADVECTION AND
WARMEST AFTERNOON TEMPS (BEST INSTABILITY). QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM A FEW TENTHS OVER THE ERN SHORE TO JUST OVER HALF AN
INCH OVER THE PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED
IN HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. ITS BEEN NEARLY A WEEK AND A
HALF SINCE THE LAST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT SO FFG IS FAIRLY
HIGH...EVEN WITH LAST NIGHTS RAINFALL. THUS...NO PLANS FOR A FFW
THIS AFTERNOON.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED TODAY...BUT CANT RULE OUT A FEW
BREAKS HIS MORNING. NEAR SEASONABLE NORMAL TEMPS TODAY (LOW 70S
NW TO LOW 80S SE). COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
WET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE STALLED
FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NWD AS A WARM FRONT SUN AND MON. MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE TIED TO PRECIP COVERAGE AND QPF.

WEAKENING UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO MEANDER IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU SUNDAY. POTENT TROUGH TRAVERSING THE PLAINS SUN
WILL AMPLIFY THE RIDGE OVER THE ERN CONUS...HELPING LIFT THE
STALLED BOUNDARY NWD AS A WARM FRONT LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. AT
THE SAME TIME...INCREASING SW FLOW (H85 WINDS 20-30 KT) WILL
ADVECT NEARLY +2 STD DEV PRECIP WATER VALUES INTO THE REGION.
ADDITIONAL WEAK IMPULSES WILL EJECT EWD FROM THE UPPER
LOW...COMBINING WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SUN. THETA-E
ADVECTION AND TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S WILL MAINTAIN A
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS (500-1000 J/KG CAPE) OVER SRN
VA...RESULTING IN A GOOD CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
COMBINATION OF CONVECTION AND DEEP MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO A THREAT
OF FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OCCURS THIS
AFTERNOON (SAT AFTERNOON).

MIDWEST TROUGH WILL KICK WHATS LEFT OF THE UPPER LOW EWD MONDAY OVER
THE APPALACHIANS...LOCATING OVER THE FA MONDAY. MEANWHILE...THE
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE FA. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND GOOD
DYNAMICS WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WARMER TEMPS WILL RESULT IN GREATER INSTABILITY...WITH ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.

72 HR QPF TOTALS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM OVER 2 INCHES ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT TO JUST OVER HALF AN INCH FOR THE MD ERN SHORE. SE VA/NE
NC COULD SEE TOTALS UPWARDS OF ONE INCH. IN ADDITION TO THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT...SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL OVER THE REGION MAY LEAD
TO RIVER FLOODING CONCERNS.

HI TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 70S NORTH TO LOW
80S SOUTH (NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS) SUN. COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. WARMER MONDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 80S.
AGAIN...COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WX AND ABOVE
NORMAL HI/LO TEMPS ON AVG. FOR TUE...MID-LVL S/W TROF PUSHES
OFFSHORE ERLY IN THE DAY WITH A CHC FOR SHWRS MAINLY OVER SE AREAS.
DECREASING CLDS DURING THE AFTN WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE MID
80S. S/SW FLOW CONTINUES WED AND THU LEADING TO CONTINUED WARM TEMPS
(HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPR 80S) AND A CHC FOR MAINLY DIURNAL SHWRS/TSTMS
WITH WEAK SFC TROFS OVER THE AREA. BEST CHC FOR RAIN WILL BE FRI AS
A COLD FRNT ADVANCES TOWARDS THE AREA. WILL CAP POPS AT 40% FOR
NOW WITH HOW FAR OUT IN TIME THIS IS ALBEIT FAIRLY GOOD
CONSISTENCY AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE FRNTAL TIMING. HI
TEMPS ONLY IN THE UPR 70S TO NEAR 80 FRI DUE TO PRECIP AND
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE AREA OF SHOWERS WHICH MOVED ACROSS CENTRAL VA...TIDEWATER AND
NC NC ARE PUSHING OFFSHORE. ONLY A FEW STRAY SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN 5SM OR BETTER
IN ANY LIGHT SHOWERS. CEILING THIS MORNING WILL BE A MIX OF MVFR
AND VFR. BY MID TO LATE MORNING EXPECT MOST LOCATION TO IMPROVE TO
VFR WITH CEILINGS AOB 3KFT. THIS MAY BE SHORT LIVED FOR A PERIOD
LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS A A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL
SLOWLY LIFT SW- NE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL
SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SELY
FLOW. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL LATE THIS MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF REDUCED VSBY IN MODERATE
SHOWERS WHICH START TO DEVELOP AROUND 17-19Z. STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE ALONG WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
IFR STRATUS LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR RIC/PHF/SBY. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA CONTINUES SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
MOIST SE TO SW FLOW CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION IS BEGINNING TO SLOWLY
LIFT NE AS A WARM FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SLOW PROCESS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY INTO TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF CAPE COD AS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A
10-15KT ESE WIND IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH 20KT LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE BAY/LOWER JAMES. SIMILAR SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE OCEAN. HOWEVER...THE ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE WIND
SHOULD ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 5FT LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY
N OF CAPE CHARLES. HENCE SCA FLAGS HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS BEGINNING AT 20Z/4PM THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING THROUGH 04Z/12AM FOR THE BAY/LOWER JAMES AND 10Z/6AM FOR
THE OCEAN. THE WARM FRONT FINALLY CLEARS THE REGION LATER SUNDAY
AFTN/EVE ALLOWING FOR THE WIND TO SHIFT TO S AND EVENTUALLY SW.
SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN AOB 15KT. HOWEVER...A BRIEF INCREASE
IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTN/EVE AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS N OF THE REGION.
SEAS SHOULD LARGELY BE 3-4FT WITH ~2FT WAVES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ630>632-634-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...AJZ/JAO
MARINE...AJZ

000
FXUS61 KRNK 181149
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
749 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL OHIO INTO NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA
THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST AND REMAIN ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL PUSH THE FRONT NORTH
OUT OF THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT SATURDAY...

SEVERAL FACTORS INDICATE AN INCREASED RISK OF FLOODING TODAY AND
TONIGHT. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IS STILL
ABOVE 2.00 INCHES PER 3 HOURS. HOWEVER...SOME LOCATIONS FROM
CENTRAL PITTSYLVANIA COUNTY INTO EASTERN APPOMATTOX AND SOUTHERN
BUCKINGHAM COUNTY HAD MORE 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN ON FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. IN THE MOUNTAINS FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE RANGES FROM
1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES IN THREE HOURS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAINED OVER AMHERST...APPOMATTOX AND
BUCKINGHAM COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING. ASIDE FROM THIS AREA AND A
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN SUMMERS AND GREENBRIER COUNTY WEST
VIRGINIA...MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE A BREAK IN THE RAIN
THIS MORNING.

A SURFACE FRONT WAS OVER THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA. BOUNDARY
SHOWED UP BEST IN THE LIFTED INDEX AND DEW POINT ANALYSIS.SURFACE
WINDS ARE OUT OF THE EAST...BUT JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WINDS ARE
OUT OF THE SOUTH. UNSTABLE AND VERY MOIST AIR LIFTING OVER THIS
BOUNDARY WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

A SHORT WAVE OVER CENTRAL TENNESSEE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TODAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FILL IN OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE BY THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT.

PLUS SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED A BREAK IN THE CLOUD COVER OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. EXPECT THE SOUTHERN COUNTY
WARNING AREA TO GET SOME SUN THIS MORNING. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
INSTABILITY BY THE TIME SHOWERS AN THUNDERSTORMS FORM THIS
AFTERNOON.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA WILL REACH
AROUND 1.75 INCHES WHICH IS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS...WELL
ABOVE...NORMAL. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL PLACEMENT ON BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS IS EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH BETWEEN 00Z/8PM TONIGHT AND 12Z/8AM
SUNDAY. SO IN MOUNTAINS AREAS THAT HAD HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON
FRIDAY HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

CLOUDS WILL LIMIT WARM UP TODAY IN ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA. USE BIAS CORRECTED MET GUIDANCE AND LATEST
GRIDDED LAMP GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY. DEW POINTS INTO THE LOWER
60S WILL KEEP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MILD TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 319 AM EDT SATURDAY...

SHRTWV THAT CAUSED SO MUCH TROUBLE ACROSS TEXAS ARRIVES IN A
WEAKENED FORM ON SUNDAY...SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
CONSIDERING THE RAIN THAT FELL OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...AND
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ON SATURDAY...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED
FOR THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT AND ALSO NW NC FOR SUNDAY. MODELS ARE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY`S RUNS WHICH ELEVATED PWATS ABOVE 1.5" ACROSS
THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT. PATTERN RECOGNITION WOULD SUGGEST AT LEAST
SOME WATER PROBLEMS DEVELOP...AS UPSLOPE FLOW...NEARBY BACKDOOR
BOUNDARY AND ARRIVING SHRTWV HAVE LED TO ISSUES IN THE PAST. WEAK
MBE VELOCITIES SUGGEST SLOW MOVERS AND/OR BACKBUILDERS. WITH THE
WAVE MOVING EAST WITH SOME SINKING MOTION/SOME DRIER AIR AT
H7...EXPECTING LESS COVERAGE ON MONDAY...BUT THERE WILL REMAIN THE
CHANCE FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE DURING PEAK
HEATING. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MONDAY. RELATIVE POP MINIMUM FOR EXTREME WESTERN VA AND SE WEST VA.
TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST AND DRIEST DAY OF THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST WITH H5 HEIGHTS RISING THANKS TO A DIGGING MIDWEST TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT...THE PROCESS OF DECREASING COVER THAT BEGAN ON MONDAY
WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES HEADING OUT OF
THE REGION. ON TUESDAY...WE WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ON THE ACTIVE SIDE AHEAD OF
THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL HAVE A MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK AS COMPARED TO THE ONE OVER THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...ITS PATH WILL ALLOW FOR A SOUTHERLY FETCH OF GULF OF
MEXICO MOISTURE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION WITH INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE START OF FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE
VARIES AS TO HOW QUICKLY THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA...BUT CONSENSUS IS FAIRLY GOOD THAT LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REGARDLESS OF THE
MODEL OF CHOICE. THIS EQUATES TO SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL TREND MILDER THROUGH THE PERIOD THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY...THEN START TO BE COOLER AS CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
BECOME MORE ABUNDANT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM EDT SATURDAY...

PATCHES OF IFR FOG AND IFR CEILINGS...MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE WILL DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING.

A SHORT WAVE CROSSING SLOWLY OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TODAY
WILL TRIGGER WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HIGH CONFIDENCE THIS WILL PRODUCE MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG WITH MVFR TO IFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. EXPECT TUESDAY TO BE THE BEST BET FOR
DECENT FLYING CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON AIRMASS
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS STILL POSSIBLE. NEXT FRONT APPROACHES
ON WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING. THIS FRONT DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE IN A BIG HURRY AND LOOKS TO BRING MVFR
CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY IFR AT NIGHT...TO TAF SITES FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR VAZ009-015.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS/PM

000
FXUS61 KRNK 180927
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
527 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL OHIO INTO NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA
THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST AND REMAIN ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL PUSH THE FRONT NORTH
OUT OF THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT SATURDAY...

SEVERAL FACTORS INDICATE AN INCREASED RISK OF FLOODING TODAY AND
TONIGHT. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IS STILL
ABOVE 2.00 INCHES PER 3 HOURS. HOWEVER...SOME LOCATIONS FROM
CENTRAL PITTSYLVANIA COUNTY INTO EASTERN APPOMATTOX AND SOUTHERN
BUCKINGHAM COUNTY HAD MORE 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN ON FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. IN THE MOUNTAINS FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE RANGES FROM
1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES IN THREE HOURS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAINED OVER AMHERST...APPOMATTOX AND
BUCKINGHAM COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING. ASIDE FROM THIS AREA AND A
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN SUMMERS AND GREENBRIER COUNTY WEST
VIRGINIA...MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE A BREAK IN THE RAIN
THIS MORNING.

A SURFACE FRONT WAS OVER THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA. BOUNDARY
SHOWED UP BEST IN THE LIFTED INDEX AND DEW POINT ANALYSIS.SURFACE
WINDS ARE OUT OF THE EAST...BUT JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WINDS ARE
OUT OF THE SOUTH. UNSTABLE AND VERY MOIST AIR LIFTING OVER THIS
BOUNDARY WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

A SHORT WAVE OVER CENTRAL TENNESSEE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TODAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FILL IN OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE BY THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT.

PLUS SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED A BREAK IN THE CLOUD COVER OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. EXPECT THE SOUTHERN COUNTY
WARNING AREA TO GET SOME SUN THIS MORNING. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
INSTABILITY BY THE TIME SHOWERS AN THUNDERSTORMS FORM THIS
AFTERNOON.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA WILL REACH
AROUND 1.75 INCHES WHICH IS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS...WELL
ABOVE...NORMAL. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL PLACEMENT ON BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS IS EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH BETWEEN 00Z/8PM TONIGHT AND 12Z/8AM
SUNDAY. SO IN MOUNTAINS AREAS THAT HAD HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON
FRIDAY HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

CLOUDS WILL LIMIT WARM UP TODAY IN ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA. USE BIAS CORRECTED MET GUIDANCE AND LATEST
GRIDDED LAMP GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY. DEW POINTS INTO THE LOWER
60S WILL KEEP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MILD TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 319 AM EDT SATURDAY...

SHRTWV THAT CAUSED SO MUCH TROUBLE ACROSS TEXAS ARRIVES IN A
WEAKENED FORM ON SUNDAY...SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
CONSIDERING THE RAIN THAT FELL OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...AND
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ON SATURDAY...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED
FOR THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT AND ALSO NW NC FOR SUNDAY. MODELS ARE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY`S RUNS WHICH ELEVATED PWATS ABOVE 1.5" ACROSS
THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT. PATTERN RECOGNITION WOULD SUGGEST AT LEAST
SOME WATER PROBLEMS DEVELOP...AS UPSLOPE FLOW...NEARBY BACKDOOR
BOUNDARY AND ARRIVING SHRTWV HAVE LED TO ISSUES IN THE PAST. WEAK
MBE VELOCITIES SUGGEST SLOW MOVERS AND/OR BACKBUILDERS. WITH THE
WAVE MOVING EAST WITH SOME SINKING MOTION/SOME DRIER AIR AT
H7...EXPECTING LESS COVERAGE ON MONDAY...BUT THERE WILL REMAIN THE
CHANCE FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE DURING PEAK
HEATING. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MONDAY. RELATIVE POP MINIMUM FOR EXTREME WESTERN VA AND SE WEST VA.
TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST AND DRIEST DAY OF THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST WITH H5 HEIGHTS RISING THANKS TO A DIGGING MIDWEST TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT...THE PROCESS OF DECREASING COVER THAT BEGAN ON MONDAY
WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES HEADING OUT OF
THE REGION. ON TUESDAY...WE WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ON THE ACTIVE SIDE AHEAD OF
THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL HAVE A MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK AS COMPARED TO THE ONE OVER THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...ITS PATH WILL ALLOW FOR A SOUTHERLY FETCH OF GULF OF
MEXICO MOISTURE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION WITH INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE START OF FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE
VARIES AS TO HOW QUICKLY THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA...BUT CONSENSUS IS FAIRLY GOOD THAT LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REGARDLESS OF THE
MODEL OF CHOICE. THIS EQUATES TO SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL TREND MILDER THROUGH THE PERIOD THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY...THEN START TO BE COOLER AS CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
BECOME MORE ABUNDANT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT SATURDAY...

A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AND
AWAY FROM SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AT BCB AND ROA THROUGH 12Z. WEAK EAST
SURFACE WINDS MAY LEAD TO LOW CLOUDS AND IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE EAST SLOPE OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW SO FOR NOW HAVE FORECAST MVFR CEILINGS AT ALL TAF SITES. IN
ADDITION...RAIN FROM FRIDAY ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SURFACE DEW
POINTS IN THE 60S WILL RESULT IN FOG OVERNIGHT. MOST LIKELY TAF
SITES WHERE LIFR FOG MAY DEVELOP BEFORE 12Z WERE BCB...LWB AND
BLF.

A SHORT WAVE CROSSING SLOWLY OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TODAY
WILL TRIGGER WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL PRODUCE MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG WITH MVFR TO IFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. EXPECT TUESDAY TO BE THE BEST BET FOR
DECENT FLYING CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON AIRMASS
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS STILL POSSIBLE. NEXT FRONT APPROACHES
ON WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING. THIS FRONT DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE IN A BIG HURRY AND LOOKS TO BRING MVFR
CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY IFR AT NIGHT...TO TAF SITES FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR VAZ009-015.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS/PM

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 180911
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
511 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT BACK TO THE
NORTH LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE
OH VALLEY...BENDING AROUND THE LEE SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO N
CNTRL NC. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY LATE
LAST NIGHT...PROGRESSING SLOWLY EWD. WHILE LOW LEVELS REMAINED
FAIRLY DRY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST...PRECIP WATER
VALUES INCREASED TO NEARLY 1.5 INCHES (+1 STD DEV) HELPING
OVERCOME THE DRY LOW LEVELS. IN ADDITION...UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE...MARGINAL ELEVATED CAPE (SHOWALTER INDEX AROUND -4)
AND OMEGA ALOFT HAVE MAINTAINED THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING. EVEN WITH TEMPERATURES AT THE SFC IN THE LOW/MID 60S.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE GENERALLY RANGED FROM A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH UP TO AN INCH AND A HALF. BASED ON OMEGA FIELDS...EXPECT
SHOWERS TO KEEP SLOWLY PROGRESSING NEWD ACROSS THE FA THROUGH
EARLY MORNING...BEFORE COMING TO AN END MID MORNING.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...UPPER LOW WILL LOCATE OVER THE TN VALLEY. LOW
LEVEL SW FLOW WILL INCREASE BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TN
VALLEY AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SE COAST. RESULT WILL BE
CONTINUED ADVECTION OF ANOMALOUS PRECIP WATER VALUES INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC. ADDITIONAL WEAK IMPULSES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE SE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW...EJECTING NEWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.
COMBINATION OF WEAK IMPULSES...AFTERNOON HEATING...STALLED
BOUNDARY AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEST COVERAGE EXPECTED TO
BE OVER THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN PROGRESSING EWD LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. BEST COVERAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO BE OVER SRN VA...CLOSEST TO BEST THETA E ADVECTION AND
WARMEST AFTERNOON TEMPS (BEST INSTABILITY). QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM A FEW TENTHS OVER THE ERN SHORE TO JUST OVER HALF AN
INCH OVER THE PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED
IN HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. ITS BEEN NEARLY A WEEK AND A
HALF SINCE THE LAST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT SO FFG IS FAIRLY
HIGH...EVEN WITH LAST NIGHTS RAINFALL. THUS...NO PLANS FOR A FFW
THIS AFTERNOON.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED TODAY...BUT CANT RULE OUT A FEW
BREAKS HIS MORNING. NEAR SEASONABLE NORMAL TEMPS TODAY (LOW 70S
NW TO LOW 80S SE). COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
WET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE STALLED
FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NWD AS A WARM FRONT SUN AND MON. MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE TIED TO PRECIP COVERAGE AND QPF.

WEAKENING UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO MEANDER IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU SUNDAY. POTENT TROUGH TRAVERSING THE PLAINS SUN
WILL AMPLIFY THE RIDGE OVER THE ERN CONUS...HELPING LIFT THE
STALLED BOUNDARY NWD AS A WARM FRONT LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. AT
THE SAME TIME...INCREASING SW FLOW (H85 WINDS 20-30 KT) WILL
ADVECT NEARLY +2 STD DEV PRECIP WATER VALUES INTO THE REGION.
ADDITIONAL WEAK IMPULSES WILL EJECT EWD FROM THE UPPER
LOW...COMBINING WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SUN. THETA-E
ADVECTION AND TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S WILL MAINTAIN A
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS (500-1000 J/KG CAPE) OVER SRN
VA...RESULTING IN A GOOD CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
COMBINATION OF CONVECTION AND DEEP MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO A THREAT
OF FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OCCURS THIS
AFTERNOON (SAT AFTERNOON).

MIDWEST TROUGH WILL KICK WHATS LEFT OF THE UPPER LOW EWD MONDAY OVER
THE APPALACHIANS...LOCATING OVER THE FA MONDAY. MEANWHILE...THE
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE FA. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND GOOD
DYNAMICS WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WARMER TEMPS WILL RESULT IN GREATER INSTABILITY...WITH ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.

72 HR QPF TOTALS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM OVER 2 INCHES ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT TO JUST OVER HALF AN INCH FOR THE MD ERN SHORE. SE VA/NE
NC COULD SEE TOTALS UPWARDS OF ONE INCH. IN ADDITION TO THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT...SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL OVER THE REGION MAY LEAD
TO RIVER FLOODING CONCERNS.

HI TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 70S NORTH TO LOW
80S SOUTH (NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS) SUN. COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. WARMER MONDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 80S.
AGAIN...COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WX AND ABOVE
NORMAL HI/LO TEMPS ON AVG. FOR TUE...MID-LVL S/W TROF PUSHES
OFFSHORE ERLY IN THE DAY WITH A CHC FOR SHWRS MAINLY OVER SE AREAS.
DECREASING CLDS DURING THE AFTN WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE MID
80S. S/SW FLOW CONTINUES WED AND THU LEADING TO CONTINUED WARM TEMPS
(HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPR 80S) AND A CHC FOR MAINLY DIURNAL SHWRS/TSTMS
WITH WEAK SFC TROFS OVER THE AREA. BEST CHC FOR RAIN WILL BE FRI AS
A COLD FRNT ADVANCES TOWARDS THE AREA. WILL CAP POPS AT 40% FOR
NOW WITH HOW FAR OUT IN TIME THIS IS ALBEIT FAIRLY GOOD
CONSISTENCY AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE FRNTAL TIMING. HI
TEMPS ONLY IN THE UPR 70S TO NEAR 80 FRI DUE TO PRECIP AND
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT SW-NE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING HAS TRIGGERED SHRA WITH EMBEDDED TSRA.
THIS ACTIVITY IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY LIFT NE THROUGH THE MORNING
FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL SCT SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
REDUCED VSBY IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ALONG
WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR STRATUS LATER
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR RIC/PHF/SBY. THE POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA
CONTINUES SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MOIST SE TO SW FLOW
CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION IS BEGINNING TO SLOWLY
LIFT NE AS A WARM FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SLOW PROCESS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY INTO TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF CAPE COD AS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A
10-15KT ESE WIND IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH 20KT LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE BAY/LOWER JAMES. SIMILAR SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE OCEAN. HOWEVER...THE ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE WIND
SHOULD ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 5FT LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY
N OF CAPE CHARLES. HENCE SCA FLAGS HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS BEGINNING AT 20Z/4PM THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING THROUGH 04Z/12AM FOR THE BAY/LOWER JAMES AND 10Z/6AM FOR
THE OCEAN. THE WARM FRONT FINALLY CLEARS THE REGION LATER SUNDAY
AFTN/EVE ALLOWING FOR THE WIND TO SHIFT TO S AND EVENTUALLY SW.
SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN AOB 15KT. HOWEVER...A BRIEF INCREASE
IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTN/EVE AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS N OF THE REGION.
SEAS SHOULD LARGELY BE 3-4FT WITH ~2FT WAVES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ630>632-634-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 180814
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
414 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT BACK TO THE
NORTH LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE
OH VALLEY...BENDING AROUND THE LEE SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO N
CNTRL NC. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY LATE
LAST NIGHT...PROGRESSING SLOWLY EWD. WHILE LOW LEVELS REMAINED
FAIRLY DRY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST...PRECIP WATER
VALUES INCREASED TO NEARLY 1.5 INCHES (+1 STD DEV) HELPING
OVERCOME THE DRY LOW LEVELS. IN ADDITION...UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE...MARGINAL ELEVATED CAPE (SHOWALTER INDEX AROUND -4)
AND OMEGA ALOFT HAVE MAINTAINED THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING. EVEN WITH TEMPERATURES AT THE SFC IN THE LOW/MID 60S.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE GENERALLY RANGED FROM A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH UP TO AN INCH AND A HALF. BASED ON OMEGA FIELDS...EXPECT
SHOWERS TO KEEP SLOWLY PROGRESSING NEWD ACROSS THE FA THROUGH
EARLY MORNING...BEFORE COMING TO AN END MID MORNING.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...UPPER LOW WILL LOCATE OVER THE TN VALLEY. LOW
LEVEL SW FLOW WILL INCREASE BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TN
VALLEY AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SE COAST. RESULT WILL BE
CONTINUED ADVECTION OF ANOMALOUS PRECIP WATER VALUES INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC. ADDITIONAL WEAK IMPULSES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE SE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW...EJECTING NEWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.
COMBINATION OF WEAK IMPULSES...AFTERNOON HEATING...STALLED
BOUNDARY AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEST COVERAGE EXPECTED TO
BE OVER THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN PROGRESSING EWD LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. BEST COVERAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO BE OVER SRN VA...CLOSEST TO BEST THETA E ADVECTION AND
WARMEST AFTERNOON TEMPS (BEST INSTABILITY). QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM A FEW TENTHS OVER THE ERN SHORE TO JUST OVER HALF AN
INCH OVER THE PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED
IN HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. ITS BEEN NEARLY A WEEK AND A
HALF SINCE THE LAST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT SO FFG IS FAIRLY
HIGH...EVEN WITH LAST NIGHTS RAINFALL. THUS...NO PLANS FOR A FFW
THIS AFTERNOON.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED TODAY...BUT CANT RULE OUT A FEW
BREAKS HIS MORNING. NEAR SEASONABLE NORMAL TEMPS TODAY (LOW 70S
NW TO LOW 80S SE). COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED PD OF WX FOR THE WKND INTO MON. PCPN COVERAGE (AND QPF)
WILL BE PROBLEMATIC...AND TEND TO FAVOR AFTN AND EVE HRS (ESP SAT
AND AGN MON). KEY TO THE WX NEXT FEW DAYS IS WKNG LO PRES MOVING
SLOLY EWD THROUGH TN VLY W/ IT CONCENTRATED PCPN. OUT AHD OF THAT
SYS...SCT (AT BEST) PCPN FM ERN TN INTO WRN VA/TN (THIS AFTN). XPCG
THAT TO BE THE CASE HERE ON SAT (AND AWAY FM THE IMMEDIATE CST)
AS MAIN AREA OF MSTR (W/ THE REMNANT LO) RMNG PRIMARILY W OF THE
FA. SFC BNDRY DRAPED OVR NC WILL RMN NRLY STNRY THROUGH SAT...THEN
BEGIN TO PULL BACK N AS A WRMFNT INTO SUN AFTN. AT THE SAME
TIME...DEEPER MSTR ARRIVES SAT NGT...CONTS INTO SUN (MDL
TSECTIONS HAVE MUCH BETTER UVM...ESP INLAND)...RESULTING IN HIGHER
POPS (THOUGH WILL STILL KP AT CHC). DISSIPATING LO PRES INVOF FA
SUN NGT INTO MON AS LO LVL FLO BECOMES SW (WRMFNT N OF THE FA) ONCE
RESULTS IN PTNTLLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CNVTN.

ONSHR WNDS CONT SAT...HI TEMPS SAT FM THE L70S AT THE CST TO ARND
80F ACRS INTR SRN VA AND INTR NE NC. LO TEMPS SAT NGT FM THE U50S
TO M60S. HI TEMPS SUN AGN FM THE L70S AT THE CST TO THE U70S/ARND
80F INLAND. HI TEMPS MON MNLY IN THE L/M80S (70S AT THE BEACHES).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WX AND ABOVE
NORMAL HI/LO TEMPS ON AVG. FOR TUE...MID-LVL S/W TROF PUSHES
OFFSHORE ERLY IN THE DAY WITH A CHC FOR SHWRS MAINLY OVER SE AREAS.
DECREASING CLDS DURING THE AFTN WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE MID
80S. S/SW FLOW CONTINUES WED AND THU LEADING TO CONTINUED WARM TEMPS
(HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPR 80S) AND A CHC FOR MAINLY DIURNAL SHWRS/TSTMS
WITH WEAK SFC TROFS OVER THE AREA. BEST CHC FOR RAIN WILL BE FRI AS
A COLD FRNT ADVANCES TOWARDS THE AREA. WILL CAP POPS AT 40% FOR
NOW WITH HOW FAR OUT IN TIME THIS IS ALBEIT FAIRLY GOOD
CONSISTENCY AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE FRNTAL TIMING. HI
TEMPS ONLY IN THE UPR 70S TO NEAR 80 FRI DUE TO PRECIP AND
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT CONTS TO BE DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS ARE
GENERALLY FROM THE E-SE AND LESS THAN 10 KT. A FEW SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND COULD AFFECT
CENTRL VA AND RIC AROUND MIDNIGHT. SCT SHOWERS/RAIN WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRES AND
AN UPPER LVL SYS APPROACHES FROM THE SW. CAN NOT RULE OUT CHC FOR
AN ISOLD TSTM OVERNIGHT ESP FOR RIC. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO
MVFR BY SAT DAYBREAK ACROSS CENTRL VA AND BY EARLY AFTN FOR MOST
OF THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA THRU SAT AND SUN...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS AND CHC OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS THRU THE WEEKEND.

THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT BY LATE
SUN/EARLY MON.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK FRNT WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA TNGT. NORTH OF THIS
FRNT OVER THE WATERS EXPECT EASTERLY FLOW ~10 KT WITH 1-2 FT WAVES
OVER THE BAY AND 2-3 FT SEAS OVER COASTAL WATERS. THE FRNT
STRUGGLES TO MOVE NORTHWARD SAT...SO EASTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE...AND WITH A SLGTLY ENHANCED PRES GRADIENT...CUD SEE WINDS
APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS. WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES FOR THIS WITH
WINDS EXPECTED TO AVG 15 KT OVER THE BAY/SOUND AND 20 KT OVER
COASTAL WATERS THRU THE DAY. WINDS SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE SE SAT NGT
INTO SUN AS THE FRNT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. STILL EXPECTING
SUB-SCA WINDS...ALTHO SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FT OVER NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS AND 4 FT OVER THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
HEADLINES FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WITH IT BEING 3RD/4TH PERIOD
AND STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND 4-5 FT SEAS
CONTINUES INTO ERLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ630>632-634-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...DAP/JEF
MARINE...MAS

000
FXUS61 KLWX 180759
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
359 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND OVER
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES WHILE
ONSHORE FLOW KEEPS THE FORECAST AREA SEASONABLY COOL. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY...LOCATED ALONG THE
COASTAL VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA BORDER AND SNAKING ITS WAY BACK
THROUGH/UP THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS
LOCATED ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA...TO NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY IN A ZONE
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT/ELEVATED INSTABILITY ENHANCED BY PVA FROM A VORT
MAX AT 500 MB. SHOWERS HAVE SNEAKED UP INTO THE CENTRAL VIRGINIA
FOOTHILLS AREA OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING.

THIS FORECAST CYCLE...WHAT IS CERTAIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS THAT
EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY/TONIGHT...RESULTING IN CLOUDY SKIES. THIS WILL LEAD TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND GUIDANCE IS IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT THAN
24 HOURS AGO FAVORING THE PREVIOUS COOLER SOLUTION FOR BELOW NORMAL
MAXIMA. BLENDED BIAS CORRECTED MAV/MET WHICH FAVORS UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S MAXIMA TODAY...AND THEN MINIMA ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

WHAT IS UNCERTAIN ARE THE DETAILS REGARDING PRECIPITATION. PLENTY OF
DIVERGENCE AMONG THE MODELS IS ALREADY APPARENT WITH THE SHOWERS ON
RADAR NOW...AND WHAT THEIR FATE WILL BE LATER THIS MORNING AND
BEYOND. 03Z HRRR MOVES/FURTHER DEVELOPS THESE SHOWERS TO THE NORTH
THROUGH MORNING...TAKING THEM ALL THE WAY TO THE MASON DIXON LINE BY
LATE MORNING. WRF-ARW/GFS SOLUTIONS GENERALLY KEEP SHOWERS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY TODAY. THE NAM
AND SREFS ARE SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN.

INITIALLY...FORECAST IS HEAVILY WEIGHTED TOWARD THE WRF-ARW/GFS
SOLUTIONS /AND RADAR TRENDS/ THIS MORNING THEN BLENDS WITH THE
NAM/SREFS SOLUTIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT WITH THE
THINKING THAT LIFT AND THUS SHOWERS EXPAND TO THE NORTH WITH TIME
WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA OVERNIGHT. OBVIOUSLY IF THE
HRRR IS CORRECT THERE WILL BE RAINFALL FURTHER NORTH AND SOONER
THAN WHAT THE FORECAST REFLECTS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THROUGH THE MORNING BUT FOR NOW THIS HAS BEEN LARGELY DISCOUNTED.

COOL WEDGE WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA TO PRECLUDE
THUNDER. HOWEVER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST CWA THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CLOSER TO THE SNAKING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...CONTINUE TO INCLUDE CHANCE OF THUNDER
IN THIS AREA AND ANY CONVECTION MAY BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS SRN VA ON SUN WHILE SFC
RIDGE FROM HIPRES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL EXTEND WWD INTO NJ
AND PA. SFC PATTERN WILL YIELD A CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE
CWA ON SUN. REMNANT MID-LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MEANDER OVER THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AS IT REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK STEERING
PATTERN OF THE ERN CONUS RIDGE. FLOW VEERS WITH HEIGHT WITH SLY FLOW
AT H8-7 PROMOTING ISENTROPIC LIFT. CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS
EXPECTED ON SUN. THE HEAVIEST QPF AND CAT POPS RESIDE OVER CENTRAL
VA AND LWR SRN MD...WHERE LIFT MAY BECOME ENHANCED NEAR THE BOUNDARY
AND NORTH OF THE MID-LVL TROUGH. MOST OF THE CWA WILL BE WEDGED IN
STABLE MARINE AIRMASS ALTHOUGH LOCATIONS IN CENTRAL VA MAY TAP INTO
SOME INSTABILITY CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
CONDITIONAL RISK FOR FLOODING OVER THESE AREAS IF CONVECTION
DEVELOPS. WPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED CENTRAL VA WITH A SLIGHT RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON SUN.

CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT DIURNAL HEATING/COOLING SUN-SUN
NGT. HIGHS NEAR 70F ON SUN AND LOWS IN THE 60S SUN NGT WILL BE
COMMON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL BE SITUATED ALONG WRN PERIPHERY OF AN
UPPER RIDGE THROUGH MIDWEEK. PERSISTENT AND DEEP RETURN FLOW AROUND
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPLY WARM/MOIST AIR FOR OUR AREA. WITH
THE PREVIOUSLY STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA ON
MON...INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE GREATER IN WARM SECTOR. DAILY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE HIGHEST DURING THE PEAK
HEATING HRS. DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...MON EXPECTED
TO HAVE THE BEST COVERAGE OF PRECIP WITH THE LINGERING MID-LVL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEARBY. POPS TUE AND WED WERE CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT THE PRIMARY DRIVING MECHANISM
FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION. MAX TEMPS NEAR 80F ON MON AND MU80S TUE/WED.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE LATE WEEK WITH THE APPROACH
OF A MIDWEST TROUGH. WARM/HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE DURING THIS
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. HAVE DISCOUNTED RECENT RUNS OF THE
HRRR AND BLENDED OTHER MODELS FOR ONSET TIMING. THERE ALSO IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE ONSET OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. WITH
EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW...EXPECT CIGS TO FALL TODAY/TONIGHT. CLOSELY
FOLLOWED A GFS LAMP SOLUTION...WHICH BRINGS IFR CONDITIONS MAINLY
AFTER DARK AND THEN LIFR CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT. IF PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS SOONER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...THEN LOWER FLIGHT
CONDITIONS MAY ALSO DEVELOP SOONER. IN COOL WEDGE...AM NOT EXPECTING
A CHANCE OF THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON AT MOST TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR CHO
WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO MENTION AT CHO AT THIS POINT.

MVFR CIGS SUN WITH ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING. CIGS LIKELY RETURN TO
IFR SUN NGT. WARM FRONT EVENTUALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION ON MON.
FLIGHT RULES RETURN TO VFR ERY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLED TO THE SOUTH OF THE WATERS...EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL SET UP TODAY/TONIGHT. WHILE WE EXPECT WINDS TO PREVAIL 10 TO 15
KT...SOME LOCAL ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER TIDAL
POTOMAC RIVER/LOWER MD CHESAPEAKE BAY WHERE A SCA IS IN EFFECT
TODAY. THIS COULD NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO TONIGHT. IN
ADDITION...SOMETIMES THIS FLOW IS UNDER-FORECAST BY THE MODELS AND
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE NEED FOR NORTHERN EXPANSION UP THE CHANNEL
OF THE BAY.

ELY FLOW 10-15 KT ON SUN. WINDS BECOME SLY ONCE A WARM FRONT PASSES
THRU ON MON. SCA MAY BE NEEDED MON FOR THE MARINE ZONES THAT ARE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO SLY-CHANNELING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
POSITIVE TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THRUOUT THE
WEEKEND AS ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS. SLY WINDS DEVELOP ON MON WHEN A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TIDAL
LVLS THOUGH THE THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW
JUST PAST THE FIRST QUARTER MOON.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JRK
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...JRK
LONG TERM...JRK
AVIATION...BPP/JRK
MARINE...BPP/JRK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JRK

000
FXUS61 KRNK 180606
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
206 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST REGION...ALLOWING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
TO WEDGE AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
ADVANCE TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN CHAIN ON SATURDAY...
INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
AREA TOWARD THE END OF THE COMING WEEK...WHICH MAY BRING A RETURN
OF COOLER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT FRIDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SURFACE FRONT IS GRADUALLY BACKDOORING IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST...BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFTING AROUND AND
COMING FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. ALOFT HOWEVER...WINDS IN BOTH
THE GSO/RNK SOUNDINGS WERE FROM THE SOUTH. WITH THIS WARM MOIST
AIR RIDING UP AND OVER THE FRONT...EXPECT SHOWER THREAT TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. CAN`T RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
AS THERE IS SOME ELEVATED CAPE...BOTH THE GSO/RNK SOUNDINGS
SHOWING CAPE OF ABOUT 1000-1500 J/KG. WINDS ALOFT ARE RELATIVELY
WEAK...MEAN WIND OF ABOUT 10KTS/12MPH. AS SUCH STORM MOVEMENT IS
SLOW...THUS RESULTING IN PERSISTENCE OF HEAVY RAIN WHERE IT
HAPPENS TO OCCUR...SOME CASES RESULTING IN AN INCH OF RAIN IN LESS
THAN AN HOUR.

THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...WILL SEE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PIEDMONT AS THE FRONT
ENTERS THE AREA AND WIND SPEEDS ALOFT DIMINISH. EXPECT THAT THE
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN PULSY IN NATURE...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE CLUSTERS OF SEMI-ORGANIZED CELLS WHERE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES MERGE. RAINFALL SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE HEADING
INTO THE EARLY HOURS OF SATURDAY...THEN INCREASE AGAIN BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
GOING INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
CLOSER. INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED RAINFALL WILL LIMIT
SURFACED BASED INSTABILITY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS HOLDING MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...SO DO NOT FORESEE A LARGE THREAT OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN SLOW MOVEMENT OF ANY STRONGER
SHOWERS AND STORMS...WHICH MAY LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. BELIEVE
WE WILL HAVE A FEW AREAS OF LOCALIZED NUISANCE FLOODING WHERE
HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPS...BUT DO NOT FORESEE THE THREAT TO BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO GO WITH ANY SORT OF FLOOD WATCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...

SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD ALONG A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ITS PASSAGE WILL ALLOW FOR DAILY ORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA. SOME WILL BE DRIVEN BY
THE DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM...THOSE OCCURRING DURING THE DAY WILL
BENEFIT FROM DAYTIME INSTABILITY AS WELL. THE AXIS OF THE SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY. WE
EXPECTED A GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL...IF NOT A SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL ON AVERAGE GIVEN ELEVATED DEW POINT VALUES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT...THE PROCESS OF DECREASING COVER THAT BEGAN ON MONDAY
WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES HEADING OUT OF
THE REGION. ON TUESDAY...WE WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ON THE ACTIVE SIDE AHEAD OF
THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL HAVE A MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK AS COMPARED TO THE ONE OVER THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...ITS PATH WILL ALLOW FOR A SOUTHERLY FETCH OF GULF OF
MEXICO MOISTURE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION WITH INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE START OF FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE
VARIES AS TO HOW QUICKLY THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA...BUT CONSENSUS IS FAIRLY GOOD THAT LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REGARDLESS OF THE
MODEL OF CHOICE. THIS EQUATES TO SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL TREND MILDER THROUGH THE PERIOD THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY...THEN START TO BE COOLER AS CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
BECOME MORE ABUNDANT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT SATURDAY...

A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AND
AWAY FROM SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AT BCB AND ROA THROUGH 12Z. WEAK EAST
SURFACE WINDS MAY LEAD TO LOW CLOUDS AND IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE EAST SLOPE OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW SO FOR NOW HAVE FORECAST MVFR CEILINGS AT ALL TAF SITES. IN
ADDITION...RAIN FROM FRIDAY ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SURFACE DEW
POINTS IN THE 60S WILL RESULT IN FOG OVERNIGHT. MOST LIKELY TAF
SITES WHERE LIFR FOG MAY DEVELOP BEFORE 12Z WERE BCB...LWB AND
BLF.

A SHORT WAVE CROSSING SLOWLY OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TODAY
WILL TRIGGER WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL PRODUCE MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG WITH MVFR TO IFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. EXPECT TUESDAY TO BE THE BEST BET FOR
DECENT FLYING CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON AIRMASS
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS STILL POSSIBLE. NEXT FRONT APPROACHES
ON WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING. THIS FRONT DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE IN A BIG HURRY AND LOOKS TO BRING MVFR
CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY IFR AT NIGHT...TO TAF SITES FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF/PM
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS/PM

000
FXUS61 KRNK 180301
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1101 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST REGION...ALLOWING
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO WEDGE AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL ADVANCE TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN CHAIN ON
SATURDAY...INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF THE COMING WEEK...WHICH MAY
BRING A RETURN OF COOLER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT FRIDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SURFACE FRONT IS GRADUALLY BACKDOORING IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST...BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFTING AROUND AND
COMING FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. ALOFT HOWEVER...WINDS IN BOTH
THE GSO/RNK SOUNDINGS WERE FROM THE SOUTH. WITH THIS WARM MOIST
AIR RIDING UP AND OVER THE FRONT...EXPECT SHOWER THREAT TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. CAN`T RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
AS THERE IS SOME ELEVATED CAPE...BOTH THE GSO/RNK SOUNDINGS
SHOWING CAPE OF ABOUT 1000-1500 J/KG. WINDS ALOFT ARE RELATIVELY
WEAK...MEAN WIND OF ABOUT 10KTS/12MPH. AS SUCH STORM MOVEMENT IS
SLOW...THUS RESULTING IN PERSISTENCE OF HEAVY RAIN WHERE IT
HAPPENS TO OCCUR...SOME CASES RESULTING IN AN INCH OF RAIN IN LESS
THAN AN HOUR.

THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...WILL SEE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PIEDMONT AS THE FRONT
ENTERS THE AREA AND WINDSPEEDS ALOFT DIMINISH. EXPECT THAT THE
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN PULSY IN NATURE...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE CLUSTERS OF SEMI-ORGANIZED CELLS WHERE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES MERGE. RAINFALL SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE HEADING
INTO THE EARLY HOURS OF SATURDAY...THEN INCREASE AGAIN BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
GOING INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
CLOSER. INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED RAINFALL WILL LIMIT
SURFACED BASED INSTABILITY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS HOLDING MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...SO DO NOT FORESEE A LARGE THREAT OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN SLOW MOVEMENT OF ANY STRONGER
SHOWERS AND STORMS...WHICH MAY LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. BELIEVE
WE WILL HAVE A FEW AREAS OF LOCALIZED NUISANCE FLOODING WHERE
HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPS...BUT DO NOT FORESEE THE THREAT TO BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO GO WITH ANY SORT OF FLOOD WATCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...

SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD ALONG A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ITS PASSAGE WILL ALLOW FOR DAILY ORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA. SOME WILL BE DRIVEN BY
THE DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM...THOSE OCCURRING DURING THE DAY WILL
BENEFIT FROM DAYTIME INSTABILITY AS WELL. THE AXIS OF THE SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY. WE
EXPECTED A GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL...IF NOT A SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL ON AVERAGE GIVEN ELEVATED DEW POINT VALUES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT...THE PROCESS OF DECREASING COVER THAT BEGAN ON MONDAY
WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES HEADING OUT OF
THE REGION. ON TUESDAY...WE WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ON THE ACTIVE SIDE AHEAD OF
THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL HAVE A MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK AS COMPARED TO THE ONE OVER THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...ITS PATH WILL ALLOW FOR A SOUTHERLY FETCH OF GULF OF
MEXICO MOISTURE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION WITH INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE START OF FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE
VARIES AS TO HOW QUICKLY THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA...BUT CONSENSUS IS FAIRLY GOOD THAT LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REGARDLESS OF THE
MODEL OF CHOICE. THIS EQUATES TO SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL TREND MILDER THROUGH THE PERIOD THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY...THEN START TO BE COOLER AS CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
BECOME MORE ABUNDANT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1100 PM EDT FRIDAY...

SURFACE FRONT OVER THE AREA WILL COMBINE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH RESULTING IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. AN EASTERLY WIND WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE
AREA...RESULTING IN THE FORMATION OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS. MODELS
SUGGEST CIGS MAY DROP INTO IFR CATEGORY BY SATURDAY MORNING. ATTM
WILL ADVERTISE MVFR CIGS WITH THINKING THAT ENOUGH MIXING SHOULD
TAKE PLACE FROM THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO LIFT CIGS A BIT HIGHER THAN
MODEL FORECAST. AT THE VERY LEAST...MAY BE LOOKING AT OBSCD RIDGE
TOPS FROM THE LOWERING CLOUD BASE.

.AVIATION EXTENDED...
SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AND LCL
IFR. CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
TO ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. EXPECT TUESDAY TO BE THE BEST
BET FOR DECENT FLYING CONDITIONS THOUGH MOUNTAINS ALTHOUGH AN
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AIRMASS SHOWER OR STORM IS STILL POSSIBLE.
NEXT LAZY FRONT APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS/STORMS
DEVELOPING. THIS FRONT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE IN A BIG HURRY AND
LOOKS TO BRING MVRF CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY IFR AT NIGHT...TO TAF
SITES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF/PM
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...PM

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 180211
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1011 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT BACK TO THE
NORTH LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS SFC FRONT FROM WV SSE TO SOUTH CENTRAL
VA AND INTO NE NC. ALOFT...WEAK RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NNW FROM SE NC
TO SOUTHERN OH (WITH A TROUGH FROM THE LWR OHIO VALLEY INTO THE TN
VALLEY. FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DEW PT/MOISTURE GRADIENT EXISTS ACRS
THE CWA WITH DEW PTS INTO THE 60S ALONG/S AND W OF THE FRONT WITH
40S OR LOWER 50S COMMON OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN VA AND THE EASTERN SHORE.
RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW SCATTERED SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA NOW
AFFECTING AREAS W OF I-95. WILL RETAIN SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS
OVERNIGHT DESPITE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AS SHOWALTER INDICES
SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION (PRIMARILY ELEVATED)
EVEN AS SFC-BASED CAPES/INSTABILITY WILL BE MEAGER. IR SATELLITE
SHOWS COOLING CLOUD TOPS OVER THE PIEDMONT AND ANOTHER AREA OVER
NORTHERN NC FARTHER UPSTREAM. HAVE RAISED POPS A BIT OVERNIGHT
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION WEST OF CHES BAY (BUT STILL KEEPING POPS
IN THE 40-50% RANGE OTHER THAN A SMALL SLIVER OF LIKELY POPS
ALONG/W OF I-95 PER CURRENT RADAR PICS). ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OR LOWER
FOR PRECIP FOR THE EASTERN SHORE.

MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LWR-MID 50S OVER MD EASTERN SHORE
(WHERE SKIES STAY MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT) TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S ACRS MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED PD OF WX FOR THE WKND INTO MON. PCPN COVERAGE (AND QPF)
WILL BE PROBLEMATIC...AND TEND TO FAVOR AFTN AND EVE HRS (ESP SAT
AND AGN MON). KEY TO THE WX NEXT FEW DAYS IS WKNG LO PRES MOVING
SLOLY EWD THROUGH TN VLY W/ IT CONCENTRATED PCPN. OUT AHD OF THAT
SYS...SCT (AT BEST) PCPN FM ERN TN INTO WRN VA/TN (THIS AFTN). XPCG
THAT TO BE THE CASE HERE ON SAT (AND AWAY FM THE IMMEDIATE CST)
AS MAIN AREA OF MSTR (W/ THE REMNANT LO) RMNG PRIMARILY W OF THE
FA. SFC BNDRY DRAPED OVR NC WILL RMN NRLY STNRY THROUGH SAT...THEN
BEGIN TO PULL BACK N AS A WRMFNT INTO SUN AFTN. AT THE SAME
TIME...DEEPER MSTR ARRIVES SAT NGT...CONTS INTO SUN (MDL
TSECTIONS HAVE MUCH BETTER UVM...ESP INLAND)...RESULTING IN HIGHER
POPS (THOUGH WILL STILL KP AT CHC). DISSIPATING LO PRES INVOF FA
SUN NGT INTO MON AS LO LVL FLO BECOMES SW (WRMFNT N OF THE FA) ONCE
RESULTS IN PTNTLLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CNVTN.

ONSHR WNDS CONT SAT...HI TEMPS SAT FM THE L70S AT THE CST TO ARND
80F ACRS INTR SRN VA AND INTR NE NC. LO TEMPS SAT NGT FM THE U50S
TO M60S. HI TEMPS SUN AGN FM THE L70S AT THE CST TO THE U70S/ARND
80F INLAND. HI TEMPS MON MNLY IN THE L/M80S (70S AT THE BEACHES).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WX AND ABOVE
NORMAL HI/LO TEMPS ON AVG. FOR TUE...MID-LVL S/W TROF PUSHES
OFFSHORE ERLY IN THE DAY WITH A CHC FOR SHWRS MAINLY OVER SE AREAS.
DECREASING CLDS DURING THE AFTN WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE MID
80S. S/SW FLOW CONTINUES WED AND THU LEADING TO CONTINUED WARM TEMPS
(HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPR 80S) AND A CHC FOR MAINLY DIURNAL SHWRS/TSTMS
WITH WEAK SFC TROFS OVER THE AREA. BEST CHC FOR RAIN WILL BE FRI AS
A COLD FRNT ADVANCES TOWARDS THE AREA. WILL CAP POPS AT 40% FOR
NOW WITH HOW FAR OUT IN TIME THIS IS ALBEIT FAIRLY GOOD
CONSISTENCY AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE FRNTAL TIMING. HI
TEMPS ONLY IN THE UPR 70S TO NEAR 80 FRI DUE TO PRECIP AND
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT CONTS TO BE DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS ARE
GENERALLY FROM THE E-SE AND LESS THAN 10 KT. A FEW SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND COULD AFFECT
CENTRL VA AND RIC AROUND MIDNIGHT. SCT SHOWERS/RAIN WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRES AND
AN UPPER LVL SYS APPROACHES FROM THE SW. CAN NOT RULE OUT CHC FOR
AN ISOLD TSTM OVERNIGHT ESP FOR RIC. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO
MVFR BY SAT DAYBREAK ACROSS CENTRL VA AND BY EARLY AFTN FOR MOST
OF THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA THRU SAT AND SUN...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS AND CHC OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS THRU THE WEEKEND.

THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT BY LATE
SUN/EARLY MON.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK FRNT WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA TNGT. NORTH OF THIS
FRNT OVER THE WATERS EXPECT EASTERLY FLOW ~10 KT WITH 1-2 FT WAVES
OVER THE BAY AND 2-3 FT SEAS OVER COASTAL WATERS. THE FRNT
STRUGGLES TO MOVE NORTHWARD SAT...SO EASTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE...AND WITH A SLGTLY ENHANCED PRES GRADIENT...CUD SEE WINDS
APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS. WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES FOR THIS WITH
WINDS EXPECTED TO AVG 15 KT OVER THE BAY/SOUND AND 20 KT OVER
COASTAL WATERS THRU THE DAY. WINDS SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE SE SAT NGT
INTO SUN AS THE FRNT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. STILL EXPECTING
SUB-SCA WINDS...ALTHO SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FT OVER NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS AND 4 FT OVER THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
HEADLINES FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WITH IT BEING 3RD/4TH PERIOD
AND STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND 4-5 FT SEAS
CONTINUES INTO ERLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...DAP/JEF
MARINE...MAS

000
FXUS61 KLWX 180134
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
934 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN STALLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN ONSHORE
FLOW DEVELOPS WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OFF THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN STATES
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
EVENTUALLY ANCHOR ITSELF OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY. A STATIONARY
FRONT THAT HAS BEEN THE ZONE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IN THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS POSITIONED ITSELF ALONG THE APPALACHIANS
AND IN SOUTHERN VIRGINIA TONIGHT. TO THE EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED AS A STABLE AIR MASS HAS MOVED
INTO THIS REGION TODAY. ALONG THE BOUNDARY... SHOWERS ARE PRESENT
ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND CENTRAL VA ZONES. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE AND SLOWLY FILL IN AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES THE MID ATLANTIC FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL INCREASE IN THE SW OVERNIGHT AND BY SAT MORNING SHOWERS AND
CLOUDS WILL HAVE INCREASED OVER THE ENTIRE REGION. BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS
THROUGH SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF OUR REGION
CLOSER TO THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY BUT
AN ISO THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL VA AND THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS IN THE AFTERNOON. MINIMAL INSTABILITY AND A STABLE AIR
MASS WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR UPDRAFTS TO FORM. SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL MOVE NORTH AND OVERSPREAD NOVA AND WASHDC METRO BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

EASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND LEADING TO
LOW CEILINGS INTO SATURDAY EVENING. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY TEMPS WILL NOT HAVE AS BIG OF A DIURNAL CURVE AS FRIDAY.
UPPER 60S AND POSSIBLY 70 ARE EXPECTED SAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPR TROUGH EJECTING FROM THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO THE
GREAT PLAINS AND AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
WILL AMPLIFY A LONG-WAVE RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFF THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC COAST WITH
THE STALLED BOUNDARY PERSISTING OVER THE SRN MID-ATLANTIC. AS A
RESULT...AN ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO SPREAD NORTHEAST TO THE BALT-WASH METRO
SATURDAY NIGHT AS MOIST SLY LLVL FLOW EXPANDS ACROSS THE CWA. CLOUDS
AND ONSHORE FLOW MAKE FOR A MILD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS MID
TO UPR 50S...LOW 60S URBAN/NEAR SHORE. WAA OVERRIDES THE CLOUDS
MAKING FOR MAX TEMPS ONLY ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL (LOW 70S).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LONG WAVE (WARM) RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE ERN STATES MONDAY
THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH A SLY FLOW AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY 80S MAX TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK WITH MID TO
UPR 60 FOR MINS IN THE HUMID AIR. AT LEAST DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED WITH ANY DISTURBANCE MAKING FOR ALL-DAY
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT.
INCREASED COVERAGE IN SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT WITH
CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR AT CHO BY THE MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE SATURDAY AS EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES AT THE SFC AT ALL
TERMINALS.


MVFR/IFR CIGS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN ONSHORE FLOW
BRINGS AMPLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. PASSING SHOWERS THROUGH
THIS TIME COULD CAUSE IFR VSBYS DURING THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL.
UNSTABLE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC AND PORTIONS OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY.  EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MOST OF THE
WEEKEND. A PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY
AND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN TEH LOWER TIDAL
POTOMAC AND CHESAPEAKE BAY. VSBYS OVER THE WATERS WILL BE REDUCED
AT TIMES IN RAIN/SHOWERS.

ONSHORE FLOW 10 TO 15 KT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...BECOMING SLY MONDAY MORNING. PERHAPS AN SCA FOR SLY
CHANNELING MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...OTHERWISE WINDS STAY BELOW 18
KT. SWLY FLOW AROUND 10 KT THEN TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...BAJ
AVIATION...BAJ/HAS
MARINE...BAJ/HAS

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 180116
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
916 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT BACK TO THE
NORTH LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS SFC FRONT FROM WV SSE TO SOUTH CENTRAL
VA AND INTO NE NC. ALOFT...WEAK RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NNW FROM SE NC
TO SOUTHERN OH (WITH A TROUGH FROM THE LWR OHIO VALLEY INTO THE TN
VALLEY. FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DEW PT/MOISTURE GRADIENT EXISTS ACRS
THE CWA WITH DEW PTS INTO THE 60S ALONG/S AND W OF THE FRONT WITH
40S OR LOWER 50S COMMON OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN VA AND THE EASTERN SHORE.
RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW SCATTERED SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA NOW
AFFECTING AREAS W OF I-95. WILL RETAIN SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS
OVERNIGHT DESPITE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AS SHOWALTER INDICES
SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION (PRIMARILY ELEVATED)
EVEN AS SFC-BASED CAPES/INSTABILITY WILL BE MEAGER. IR SATELLITE
SHOWS COOLING CLOUD TOPS OVER THE PIEDMONT AND ANOTHER AREA OVER
NORTHERN NC FARTHER UPSTREAM. HAVE RAISED POPS A BIT OVERNIGHT
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION WEST OF CHES BAY (BUT STILL KEEPING POPS
IN THE 40-50% RANGE). ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OR LOWER FOR PRECIP FOR
THE EASTERN SHORE.

MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LWR-MID 50S OVER MD EASTERN SHORE
(WHERE SKIES STAY MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT) TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S ACRS MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED PD OF WX FOR THE WKND INTO MON. PCPN COVERAGE (AND QPF)
WILL BE PROBLEMATIC...AND TEND TO FAVOR AFTN AND EVE HRS (ESP SAT
AND AGN MON). KEY TO THE WX NEXT FEW DAYS IS WKNG LO PRES MOVING
SLOLY EWD THROUGH TN VLY W/ IT CONCENTRATED PCPN. OUT AHD OF THAT
SYS...SCT (AT BEST) PCPN FM ERN TN INTO WRN VA/TN (THIS AFTN). XPCG
THAT TO BE THE CASE HERE ON SAT (AND AWAY FM THE IMMEDIATE CST)
AS MAIN AREA OF MSTR (W/ THE REMNANT LO) RMNG PRIMARILY W OF THE
FA. SFC BNDRY DRAPED OVR NC WILL RMN NRLY STNRY THROUGH SAT...THEN
BEGIN TO PULL BACK N AS A WRMFNT INTO SUN AFTN. AT THE SAME
TIME...DEEPER MSTR ARRIVES SAT NGT...CONTS INTO SUN (MDL
TSECTIONS HAVE MUCH BETTER UVM...ESP INLAND)...RESULTING IN HIGHER
POPS (THOUGH WILL STILL KP AT CHC). DISSIPATING LO PRES INVOF FA
SUN NGT INTO MON AS LO LVL FLO BECOMES SW (WRMFNT N OF THE FA) ONCE
RESULTS IN PTNTLLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CNVTN.

ONSHR WNDS CONT SAT...HI TEMPS SAT FM THE L70S AT THE CST TO ARND
80F ACRS INTR SRN VA AND INTR NE NC. LO TEMPS SAT NGT FM THE U50S
TO M60S. HI TEMPS SUN AGN FM THE L70S AT THE CST TO THE U70S/ARND
80F INLAND. HI TEMPS MON MNLY IN THE L/M80S (70S AT THE BEACHES).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WX AND ABOVE
NORMAL HI/LO TEMPS ON AVG. FOR TUE...MID-LVL S/W TROF PUSHES
OFFSHORE ERLY IN THE DAY WITH A CHC FOR SHWRS MAINLY OVER SE AREAS.
DECREASING CLDS DURING THE AFTN WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE MID
80S. S/SW FLOW CONTINUES WED AND THU LEADING TO CONTINUED WARM TEMPS
(HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPR 80S) AND A CHC FOR MAINLY DIURNAL SHWRS/TSTMS
WITH WEAK SFC TROFS OVER THE AREA. BEST CHC FOR RAIN WILL BE FRI AS
A COLD FRNT ADVANCES TOWARDS THE AREA. WILL CAP POPS AT 40% FOR
NOW WITH HOW FAR OUT IN TIME THIS IS ALBEIT FAIRLY GOOD
CONSISTENCY AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE FRNTAL TIMING. HI
TEMPS ONLY IN THE UPR 70S TO NEAR 80 FRI DUE TO PRECIP AND
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT CONTS TO BE DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS ARE
GENERALLY FROM THE E-SE AND LESS THAN 10 KT. A FEW SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND COULD AFFECT
CENTRL VA AND RIC AROUND MIDNIGHT. SCT SHOWERS/RAIN WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRES AND
AN UPPER LVL SYS APPROACHES FROM THE SW. CAN NOT RULE OUT CHC FOR
AN ISOLD TSTM OVERNIGHT ESP FOR RIC. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO
MVFR BY SAT DAYBREAK ACROSS CENTRL VA AND BY EARLY AFTN FOR MOST
OF THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA THRU SAT AND SUN...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS AND CHC OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS THRU THE WEEKEND.

THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT BY LATE
SUN/EARLY MON.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK FRNT WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA TNGT. NORTH OF THIS
FRNT OVER THE WATERS EXPECT EASTERLY FLOW ~10 KT WITH 1-2 FT WAVES
OVER THE BAY AND 2-3 FT SEAS OVER COASTAL WATERS. THE FRNT
STRUGGLES TO MOVE NORTHWARD SAT...SO EASTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE...AND WITH A SLGTLY ENHANCED PRES GRADIENT...CUD SEE WINDS
APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS. WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES FOR THIS WITH
WINDS EXPECTED TO AVG 15 KT OVER THE BAY/SOUND AND 20 KT OVER
COASTAL WATERS THRU THE DAY. WINDS SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE SE SAT NGT
INTO SUN AS THE FRNT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. STILL EXPECTING
SUB-SCA WINDS...ALTHO SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FT OVER NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS AND 4 FT OVER THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
HEADLINES FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WITH IT BEING 3RD/4TH PERIOD
AND STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND 4-5 FT SEAS
CONTINUES INTO ERLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...DAP/JEF
MARINE...MAS

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 180005
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
805 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
BASED ON LATEST RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS HAVE SCALED BACK ON PRECIP
CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER FOR A FEW MORE HRS...(GENLY DRY THROUGH 9
PM EXCEPT ACRS THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA).

MNLY SKC...WARM BUT COMFY THIS AFTN OVR THE FA...L/M80S
INLAND...GENLY 70S CLOSER TO THE CST (DEWPTS MNLY FM THE M40S TO
L50S). SCT-BKN CU BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO FAR SW PORTIONS OF FA
ATTM...W/ SCT TSRAS ACRS SW VA. MVMNT OF THE CLDNS AND STMS IS VRY
SLO TO THE E. WILL CONT TO CARRY CHC POPS FOR THE SW 1/4TH PORTION
OF FA THROUGH THIS EVE. MDLS CONTG TO SPREAD MSTR INTO THE RGN
THROUGH THE OVRNGT HRS...BUT SUSPECT QPF COVERAGE IS OVERDONE W/O
ANY MAIN/SGFNT FORCING MECHANISM AND LOSS OF HTG. WILL HAVE 20-30%
POPS FOR MOST INLAND VA AND ACRS NE NC COUNTIES OVRNGT...WHL KPG
POPS AOB 14% NR MUCH OF THE CST THROUGH THE NGT. MOST LO TEMPS FM
THE U50S TO L60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED PD OF WX FOR THE WKND INTO MON. PCPN COVERAGE (AND QPF)
WILL BE PROBLEMATIC...AND TEND TO FAVOR AFTN AND EVE HRS (ESP SAT
AND AGN MON). KEY TO THE WX NEXT FEW DAYS IS WKNG LO PRES MOVING
SLOLY EWD THROUGH TN VLY W/ IT CONCENTRATED PCPN. OUT AHD OF THAT
SYS...SCT (AT BEST) PCPN FM ERN TN INTO WRN VA/TN (THIS AFTN). XPCG
THAT TO BE THE CASE HERE ON SAT (AND AWAY FM THE IMMEDIATE CST)
AS MAIN AREA OF MSTR (W/ THE REMNANT LO) RMNG PRIMARILY W OF THE
FA. SFC BNDRY DRAPED OVR NC WILL RMN NRLY STNRY THROUGH SAT...THEN
BEGIN TO PULL BACK N AS A WRMFNT INTO SUN AFTN. AT THE SAME
TIME...DEEPER MSTR ARRIVES SAT NGT...CONTS INTO SUN (MDL
TSECTIONS HAVE MUCH BETTER UVM...ESP INLAND)...RESULTING IN HIGHER
POPS (THOUGH WILL STILL KP AT CHC). DISSIPATING LO PRES INVOF FA
SUN NGT INTO MON AS LO LVL FLO BECOMES SW (WRMFNT N OF THE FA) ONCE
RESULTS IN PTNTLLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CNVTN.

ONSHR WNDS CONT SAT...HI TEMPS SAT FM THE L70S AT THE CST TO ARND
80F ACRS INTR SRN VA AND INTR NE NC. LO TEMPS SAT NGT FM THE U50S
TO M60S. HI TEMPS SUN AGN FM THE L70S AT THE CST TO THE U70S/ARND
80F INLAND. HI TEMPS MON MNLY IN THE L/M80S (70S AT THE BEACHES).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WX AND ABOVE
NORMAL HI/LO TEMPS ON AVG. FOR TUE...MID-LVL S/W TROF PUSHES
OFFSHORE ERLY IN THE DAY WITH A CHC FOR SHWRS MAINLY OVER SE AREAS.
DECREASING CLDS DURING THE AFTN WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE MID
80S. S/SW FLOW CONTINUES WED AND THU LEADING TO CONTINUED WARM TEMPS
(HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPR 80S) AND A CHC FOR MAINLY DIURNAL SHWRS/TSTMS
WITH WEAK SFC TROFS OVER THE AREA. BEST CHC FOR RAIN WILL BE FRI AS
A COLD FRNT ADVANCES TOWARDS THE AREA. WILL CAP POPS AT 40% FOR
NOW WITH HOW FAR OUT IN TIME THIS IS ALBEIT FAIRLY GOOD
CONSISTENCY AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE FRNTAL TIMING. HI
TEMPS ONLY IN THE UPR 70S TO NEAR 80 FRI DUE TO PRECIP AND
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT CONTS TO BE DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS ARE
GENERALLY FROM THE E-SE AND LESS THAN 10 KT. A FEW SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND COULD AFFECT
CENTRL VA AND RIC AROUND MIDNIGHT. SCT SHOWERS/RAIN WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRES AND
AN UPPER LVL SYS APPROACHES FROM THE SW. CAN NOT RULE OUT CHC FOR
AN ISOLD TSTM OVERNIGHT ESP FOR RIC. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO
MVFR BY SAT DAYBREAK ACROSS CENTRL VA AND BY EARLY AFTN FOR MOST
OF THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA THRU SAT AND SUN...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS AND CHC OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS THRU THE WEEKEND.

THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT BY LATE
SUN/EARLY MON.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK FRNT WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA TNGT. NORTH OF THIS
FRNT OVER THE WATERS EXPECT EASTERLY FLOW ~10 KT WITH 1-2 FT WAVES
OVER THE BAY AND 2-3 FT SEAS OVER COASTAL WATERS. THE FRNT
STRUGGLES TO MOVE NORTHWARD SAT...SO EASTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE...AND WITH A SLGTLY ENHANCED PRES GRADIENT...CUD SEE WINDS
APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS. WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES FOR THIS WITH
WINDS EXPECTED TO AVG 15 KT OVER THE BAY/SOUND AND 20 KT OVER
COASTAL WATERS THRU THE DAY. WINDS SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE SE SAT NGT
INTO SUN AS THE FRNT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. STILL EXPECTING
SUB-SCA WINDS...ALTHO SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FT OVER NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS AND 4 FT OVER THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
HEADLINES FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WITH IT BEING 3RD/4TH PERIOD
AND STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND 4-5 FT SEAS
CONTINUES INTO ERLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...DAP/JEF
MARINE...MAS