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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 260653
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
253 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains centered off the southeast coast through
Thursday, then pushes well off the Mid Atlantic coast by Friday.
Low pressure slowly approaches from the south Saturday, and will
push into the southeast coast Sunday through Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
High level moisture in the form of ci / ac spilling over the mts
and across the fa this evening. Adjusted cloud grid a bit to
indicated mostly clear skies vs skc. latest LAV and CONSShort
data suggest some late night fog over portions of the piedmont
but overall coverage to low to mention in the forecast. Lows
60-65.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
There is good model consensus between the NAM/GFS/ECMWF with the
pattern through the next several days, the upper ridge looks to
slowly push north and become centered off the VA/NC coast Thu and
fri, which should keep the area mainly dry and warm, despite
increasing humidity. Expect a mainly sunny morning on Thu, with a
bit more in the way of aftn cu as dew pts will be into the 60s
(skies avg partly-mostly sunny in the aftn). With 850mb temps
rising to 16-17C Thu aftn, expect high temps about 1-3 F warmer,
in the upr 80s/arnd 90 ovr most of the inland zones, ranging
through the lower-mid 80s near the immediate coast. If any of our
primary climate sites reach 90 F, it will be the first time this
season (see climate section). High res models genly keep bulk of
tstm activity out of the cwa until late aftn, will carry a 20% POP
over much of the interior of VA after 3pm, with a small area to
around 30% in the far NW (dry across the SE). Any convection
should wane rather quickly after sunset, will have 20% POPS across
mainly the northern 1/2 of the CWA through midnight. Warm and
somewhat humid with lows in the mid-upper 60s.

Forecast soundings again not real enthusiastic about aftn tstm
chcs for Fri aftn/evening, with just some minimal forcing due to
lee trof and weak instability along/east of the mountains (will
genly have ~20% POPS Fri aftn/evening. Highs on Fri in the
mid/upr 80s...an increase in SSE flow should keep it a tad cooler
than Thu along the coast with highs in the upr 70s/lwr 80s. Lows
in the 60s. For Sat, models remain are in good agreement at
keeping the deeper moisture associated with the low off the SE
coast to our south, and overall should only have a minimal chc for
aftn showers/tstms confined to extreme southern VA and ne NC, with
partly sunny skies south to mostly sunny north. Highs in the mid-
upper 80s N to the lower 80s south.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The forecast by late this weekend into the middle of next week will
be largely dependent on the evolution of the low pressure system
expected to develop off the southeast U.S. coast within the next few
days. 12Z suite of model guidance supports the development of this
low by this weekend but then greatly diverge on its eventual
movement next week. The low could develop sub-tropical or tropical
characteristics (see latest NHC TWO) as it drifts toward the
southeast U.S. coast this weekend. Even if it does so, it`s impact
would most likely be minimal across our FA...with the exception of
increased shower/thunderstorm chances and possible elevated
seas/increased rip current risk starting Sunday. For now, will
continue to carry chc pops (30-50%) Sun-Tues...lowering a bit by
next Wed. Temperatures, tempered by clouds and possible convection,
should be near normal through the period. Highs in the upper 70s to
low 80s. Remaining mild at night due to influx of higher dew point
air. Lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure off the Southeast coast will control the wxthrough
Fri. Low pressure east of the Bahamas will approach the Carolinas
during the weekend.

Other than psbl lgt fg early this mrng...esp at kphf...and psbl
isold tstm this eve invof RIC...vfr conds through 06z taf pd.
Few- Sct cu xpcd midday through mid aftn. SSW wnds aob 10
kt...though lcl sea breeze psbl at ORF/ECG (w/ direction to SE for
a pd this aftn). Chcs for pcpn rmng very lo through Sat...then
chcs for shras/tstms increase Sun/Mon.

&&

.MARINE...
No headlines necessary through Sat. Hi pres sfc-aloft rmns nr the
mdatlc wtrs through Fri...providing mnly SSW wnds aob 15 kt.
Beyond that...SE wnds around 10 kt are expected Sat. Contg to
monitor psbl lo pres development off SE conus cst this
wknd...which may bring incrsd SE wnds and deteriorating conds ovr
the local wtrs. For now...SE winds avgg 10-15 kt Sun/Mon...seas
may approach 5 ft...esp off VA/NE NC.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The monthly rainfall total to date for May at Richmond is 8.41".
May 2016 is currently the 6th wettest month of May on record at
Richmond.

Top 6 wettest months of May at Richmond

    1. 9.13"  1889
    2. 8.98"  1873
    3. 8.87"  1972
    4. 8.67"  1886
    5. 8.59"  2003
    6. 8.41"  2016 (to date)

* 1st 90 deg day has not yet occurred this year at climate sites:

                 (Avg Date / Last Yr):
*  RIC:           May 13   / May 12
*  ORF:           May 17   / May 12
*  SBY:           May 27   / Jun 1

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KAKQ Radar will remain offline for maintanence through Thursday.
New parts are on order.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...ALB/BMD/JDM
AVIATION...ALB/LSA
MARINE...ALB/JDM
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 260554
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
154 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains centered off the southeast coast through
Thursday, then pushes well off the Mid Atlantic coast by Friday.
Low pressure slowly approaches from the south Saturday, and will
push into the southeast coast Sunday through Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
High level moisture in the form of ci / ac spilling over the mts
and across the fa this evening. Adjusted cloud grid a bit to
indicated mostly clear skies vs skc. latest LAV and CONSShort
data suggest some late night fog over portions of the piedmont
but overall coverage to low to mention in the forecast. Lows
60-65.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
There is good model consensus between the NAM/GFS/ECMWF with the
pattern through the next several days, the upper ridge looks to
slowly push north and become centered off the VA/NC coast Thu and
fri, which should keep the area mainly dry and warm, despite
increasing humidity. Expect a mainly sunny morning on Thu, with a
bit more in the way of aftn cu as dew pts will be into the 60s
(skies avg partly-mostly sunny in the aftn). With 850mb temps
rising to 16-17C Thu aftn, expect high temps about 1-3 F warmer,
in the upr 80s/arnd 90 ovr most of the inland zones, ranging
through the lower-mid 80s near the immediate coast. If any of our
primary climate sites reach 90 F, it will be the first time this
season (see climate section). High res models genly keep bulk of
tstm activity out of the cwa until late aftn, will carry a 20% POP
over much of the interior of VA after 3pm, with a small area to
around 30% in the far NW (dry across the SE). Any convection
should wane rather quickly after sunset, will have 20% POPS across
mainly the northern 1/2 of the CWA through midnight. Warm and
somewhat humid with lows in the mid-upper 60s.

Forecast soundings again not real enthusiastic about aftn tstm
chcs for Fri aftn/evening, with just some minimal forcing due to
lee trof and weak instability along/east of the mountains (will
genly have ~20% POPS Fri aftn/evening. Highs on Fri in the
mid/upr 80s...an increase in SSE flow should keep it a tad cooler
than Thu along the coast with highs in the upr 70s/lwr 80s. Lows
in the 60s. For Sat, models remain are in good agreement at
keeping the deeper moisture associated with the low off the SE
coast to our south, and overall should only have a minimal chc for
aftn showers/tstms confined to extreme southern VA and ne NC, with
partly sunny skies south to mostly sunny north. Highs in the mid-
upper 80s N to the lower 80s south.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The forecast by late this weekend into the middle of next week will
be largely dependent on the evolution of the low pressure system
expected to develop off the southeast U.S. coast within the next few
days. 12Z suite of model guidance supports the development of this
low by this weekend but then greatly diverge on its eventual
movement next week. The low could develop sub-tropical or tropical
characteristics (see latest NHC TWO) as it drifts toward the
southeast U.S. coast this weekend. Even if it does so, it`s impact
would most likely be minimal across our FA...with the exception of
increased shower/thunderstorm chances and possible elevated
seas/increased rip current risk starting Sunday. For now, will
continue to carry chc pops (30-50%) Sun-Tues...lowering a bit by
next Wed. Temperatures, tempered by clouds and possible convection,
should be near normal through the period. Highs in the upper 70s to
low 80s. Remaining mild at night due to influx of higher dew point
air. Lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure off the Southeast coast will control the wxthrough
Fri. Low pressure east of the Bahamas will approach the Carolinas
during the weekend.

Other than psbl lgt fg early this mrng...esp at kphf...and psbl
isold tstm this eve invof RIC...vfr conds through 06z taf pd.
Few- Sct cu xpcd midday through mid aftn. SSW wnds aob 10
kt...though lcl sea breeze psbl at ORF/ECG (w/ direction to SE for
a pd this aftn). Chcs for pcpn rmng very lo through Sat...then
chcs for shras/tstms increase Sun/Mon.

&&

.MARINE...
Benign boating conditions are expected through Thursday with high
pressure off the Carolina coast producing S-SW winds 5-15 kt and
seas 2-3 ft. Pressure gradient tightens a bit on Friday between the
offshore high and a Piedmont trough so that S winds average 10-15
kt. This may briefly push seas to 3-4 ft across the northern coastal
waters. Beyond that...SE winds around 10 kt are expected Saturday
with seas 2-3 ft. Watching for possible low pressure development off
the southeast coast by this weekend...which may bring increased seas
to the local waters Sun/Mon. As of now...winds look to remain SE 10-
15 kt Sun/Mon.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The monthly rainfall total to date for May at Richmond is 8.41".
May 2016 is currently the 6th wettest month of May on record at
Richmond.

Top 6 wettest months of May at Richmond

    1. 9.13"  1889
    2. 8.98"  1873
    3. 8.87"  1972
    4. 8.67"  1886
    5. 8.59"  2003
    6. 8.41"  2016 (to date)

* 1st 90 deg day has not yet occurred this year at climate sites:

                 (Avg Date / Last Yr):
*  RIC:           May 13   / May 12
*  ORF:           May 17   / May 12
*  SBY:           May 27   / Jun 1

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KAKQ Radar will remain offline for maintanence through Thursday.
New parts are on order.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...ALB/BMD/JDM
AVIATION...ALB/LSA
MARINE...JDM
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...



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000
FXUS61 KRNK 260546
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
146 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure is centered just off the southeast Atlantic Coast.
This feature will remain nearly stationary through the end of the
week, clockwise flow around the high resulting in a warm
southwest wind. Increasing moisture from the southwest will result
in increasing cloudiness along with scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms. an area of low pressure is forecast to develop over
the Bahamas Friday. This feature is expected to impact the beaches
along the southeast Atlantic coast this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 1020 PM EDT Wednesday...

Any shower threat overnight will be mainly confined to areas west
of the blue ridge, and primarily west of I-77 where deeper
moisture will have a chance to make inroads. Per regional
radars...Deeper moisture is advancing across the OH/TN
valleys...showers and thunderstorms ongoing from western TN
northeast into KY. This activity is progged to move east northeast
overnight. Have trimmed back probability of showers in all but the
far western county warning area tonight.

High pressure is currently building just off the southeast
Atlantic Coast, clockwise flow around the high resulting in a warm
southwest wind from the Gulf Coast into the Tennessee and Ohio
Valleys. This southwest wind flow is also advecting moist air
northward with dewpoints in the 60s. A broad upper level trof of
low pressure resides over the western U.S. and a short wave has
ejected from this trof, this disturbance currently moving
northeast through the mid-upper MS Valley. It is the tail end of
this short wave that is associated with the area of showers/storms
over wrn TN/KY. Models show this short wave moving down stream and
weakening with time as it encounters the building upper level
ridge over the southeast and mid-atlantic regions. Never the less,
this increase in moisture and lift will be enough to contribute
to widely scattered shower and thunderstorm formation Thursday.
Since dynamics are waning, the thunderstorms are not expected to
be severe.

With the influx of warmer air, high temperatures Thursday will
reach the middle and upper 80s east of the Blue Ridge with upper
70s and lower 80s elsewhere. Lows tonight and again Thursday night
will generally be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. With higher dew
points tonight, have introduced patchy valley fog toward morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 PM EDT Wednesday...

Synoptic pattern will continue to feature an upper level trough
in the southwestern U.S. with a ridge of high pressure over the
east, the primary surface high still centered along the southeast
Atlantic Coast. Southwest flow will provide warmth and moisture to
the forecast area, daytime heating allowing for pop-up
showers/storms, but lack of dynamic support leading to little or
no organization. Net result is a summertime sort of pattern with
shower threat mainly tied to the peak heating part of the day.

Models are in agreement that an area of low pressure will develop
in the vicinity of the Bahamas on Friday, with potential impact to
the beaches along the southeast Atlantic Coast this weekend. For
the central Appalachians we should escape any influence through at
least Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 410 PM EDT Wednesday...

Forecast challenge this period will hinge on track of the area of
tropical low pressure along the southeast Atlantic Coast. The
upper flow will remain quite stagnant with an upper high to our
north and a broad upper low continuing in the western U.S.
Therefore, if the tropical system does drift into the GA/SC/NC
area as most models suggest, although there are notable
differences in the distance it will track inland, it will likely
linger for several days with non-existent steering currents and
blocked upper flow. The upper high to the north could keep the
system lingering in place for several days. Rainfall may become a
concern depending on how far inland the system tracks. The ECMWF
continues to paint the least ominous solution, keeping the bulk
of the precipitation and higher PWATS closer to the coast. At a
minimum, we can expect scattered diurnal convection with
warm/humid conditions through the period. Max temps will remain
mostly in the 70s mountains and 80s elsewhere, with lows mainly
in the 60s. Have not made any drastic changes to the extended QPF
as there is still considerable uncertainty in exactly how much
precipitation we will see.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 140 AM EDT Thursday...

Generally VFR conditions expected through the TAF valid
period...with a few exceptions...mainly in the form of early
morning fog in some of the mountain valleys/BCB/LWB. Expect some
mid and high cloud debris from showers and thunderstorms well to
the west of the region. Medium confidence that this cloud cover
will not be enough to hamper fog formation.

A short wave ejecting from a broad upper low over the southwest United
States moves northeast Thursday, bringing a better opportunity
for showers and a few storms to over the mountains and across
areas east of the Appalachians Thursday afternoon. MVFR ceilings
and visibilities are likely in any of these storms. Coverage will
be limited enough to just have VCTS in the TAFs for now.

Extended discussion...

Wind flow through Friday will be out of the southwest with the
weather pattern more reflective of summer conditions, primarily
VFR except for widely scattered afternoon and evening showers
during the peak heating part of the day. Nightime fog also
possible in the mountain valleys, but mainly after midnight up
until an hour or two after daybreak.

Potential wind flow change is advertised by the models this
weekend per development of a storm system off the southeast
Atlantic Coast. Models differ quite a bit on timing and movement
of this feature so low confidence forecast beyond Saturday attm.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...AMS/PM
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM/RAB
AVIATION...AMS/PM/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 260223
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1023 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure is centered just off the southeast Atlantic Coast.
This feature will remain nearly stationary through the end of the
week, clockwise flow around the high resulting in a warm
southwest wind. Increasing moisture from the southwest will result
in increasing cloudiness along with scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms. an area of low pressure is forecast to develop over
the Bahamas Friday. This feature is expected to impact the beaches
along the southeast Atlantic coast this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1020 PM EDT Wednesday...

Any shower threat overnight will be mainly confined to areas west
of the blue ridge, and primarily west of I-77 where deeper
moisture will have a chance to make inroads. Per regional
radars...Deeper moisture is advancing across the OH/TN
valleys...showers and thunderstorms ongoing from western TN
northeast into KY. This activity is progged to move east northeast
overnight. Have trimmed back probability of showers in all but the
far western county warning area tonight.

High pressure is currently building just off the southeast
Atlantic Coast, clockwise flow around the high resulting in a warm
southwest wind from the Gulf Coast into the Tennessee and Ohio
Valleys. This southwest wind flow is also advecting moist air
northward with dewpoints in the 60s. A broad upper level trof of
low pressure resides over the western U.S. and a short wave has
ejected from this trof, this disturbance currently moving
northeast through the mid-upper MS Valley. It is the tail end of
this short wave that is associated with the area of showers/storms
over wrn TN/KY. Models show this short wave moving down stream and
weakening with time as it encounters the building upper level
ridge over the southeast and mid-atlantic regions. Never the less,
this increase in moisture and lift will be enough to contribute
to widely scattered shower and thunderstorm formation Thursday.
Since dynamics are waning, the thunderstorms are not expected to
be severe.

With the influx of warmer air, high temperatures Thursday will
reach the middle and upper 80s east of the Blue Ridge with upper
70s and lower 80s elsewhere. Lows tonight and again Thursday night
will generally be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. With higher dew
points tonight, have introduced patchy valley fog toward morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 PM EDT Wednesday...

Synoptic pattern will continue to feature an upper level trough
in the southwestern U.S. with a ridge of high pressure over the
east, the primary surface high still centered along the southeast
Atlantic Coast. Southwest flow will provide warmth and moisture to
the forecast area, daytime heating allowing for pop-up
showers/storms, but lack of dynamic support leading to little or
no organization. Net result is a summertime sort of pattern with
shower threat mainly tied to the peak heating part of the day.

Models are in agreement that an area of low pressure will develop
in the vicinity of the Bahamas on Friday, with potential impact to
the beaches along the southeast Atlantic Coast this weekend. For
the central Appalachians we should escape any influence through at
least Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 410 PM EDT Wednesday...

Forecast challenge this period will hinge on track of the area of
tropical low pressure along the southeast Atlantic Coast. The
upper flow will remain quite stagnant with an upper high to our
north and a broad upper low continuing in the western U.S.
Therefore, if the tropical system does drift into the GA/SC/NC
area as most models suggest, although there are notable
differences in the distance it will track inland, it will likely
linger for several days with non-existent steering currents and
blocked upper flow. The upper high to the north could keep the
system lingering in place for several days. Rainfall may become a
concern depending on how far inland the system tracks. The ECMWF
continues to paint the least ominous solution, keeping the bulk
of the precipitation and higher PWATS closer to the coast. At a
minimum, we can expect scattered diurnal convection with
warm/humid conditions through the period. Max temps will remain
mostly in the 70s mountains and 80s elsewhere, with lows mainly
in the 60s. Have not made any drastic changes to the extended QPF
as there is still considerable uncertainty in exactly how much
precipitation we will see.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 740 PM EDT Wednesday...

Generally VFR conditions expected through the TAF valid
period...with a few exceptions...mainly in the form of late
night/early morning fog in some of the mountain valleys. Surface
dew points have increased since Tuesday afternoon. Expect some mid
and high cloud debris from showers and thunderstorms well to the
west of the region. Medium confidence that this cloud cover will
not be enough to hamper fog formation early Thursday morning at
KBCB and KLWB. Periods of IFR to LIFR fog are possible between
10Z/6AM and 13Z/9AM.

A short wave ejecting from a broad upper low over the southwest United
States moves northeast tonight and Thursday, bringing a better
opportunity for showers and a few storms to over the mountains and across
areas east of the Appalachians Thursday afternoon. MVFR ceilings
and visibilities are likely in any of these storms. Coverage will
be limited enough to just have VCTS in the TAFs for now.

Extended discussion...

Wind flow through Friday will be out of the southwest with the
weather pattern more reflective of summer conditions, primarily
VFR except for widely scattered afternoon and evening showers
during the peak heating part of the day. Nightime fog also
possible in the mountain valleys, but mainly after midnight up
until an hour or two after daybreak.

Potential wind flow change is advertised by the models this
weekend per development of a storm system off the southeast
Atlantic Coast. Models differ quite a bit on timing and movement
of this feature so low confidence forecast beyond Saturday attm.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...AMS/PM
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM/RAB
AVIATION...AMS/PM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 252359
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
759 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain centered off the southeast coast tonight
through Thursday...and will push well off the Mid Atlantic coast
by Friday. Low pressure will slowly approach from the south on
Saturday, and will push into the southeast coast Sunday through Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
High pressure to the south results in mainly clear skies tonight
with lows 60-65. Dew pts are progged to rise a bit with some
patchy fog possible after midnight. Overall coverage to low to
mention in the forecast attm.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
There is good model consensus between the NAM/GFS/ECMWF with the
pattern through the next several days, the upper ridge looks to
slowly push north and become centered off the VA/NC coast Thu and
fri, which should keep the area mainly dry and warm, despite
increasing humidity. Expect a mainly sunny morning on Thu, with a
bit more in the way of aftn cu as dew pts will be into the 60s
(skies avg partly-mostly sunny in the aftn). With 850mb temps
rising to 16-17C Thu aftn, expect high temps about 1-3 F warmer,
in the upr 80s/arnd 90 ovr most of the inland zones, ranging
through the lower-mid 80s near the immediate coast. If any of our
primary climate sites reach 90 F, it will be the first time this
season (see climate section). High res models genly keep bulk of
tstm activity out of the cwa until late aftn, will carry a 20% POP
over much of the interior of VA after 3pm, with a small area to
around 30% in the far NW (dry across the SE). Any convection
should wane rather quickly after sunset, will have 20% POPS across
mainly the northern 1/2 of the CWA through midnight. Warm and
somewhat humid with lows in the mid-upper 60s.

Forecast soundings again not real enthusiastic about aftn tstm
chcs for Fri aftn/evening, with just some minimal forcing due to
lee trof and weak instability along/east of the mountains (will
genly have ~20% POPS Fri aftn/evening. Highs on Fri in the
mid/upr 80s...an increase in SSE flow should keep it a tad cooler
than Thu along the coast with highs in the upr 70s/lwr 80s. Lows
in the 60s. For Sat, models remain are in good agreement at
keeping the deeper moisture associated with the low off the SE
coast to our south, and overall should only have a minimal chc for
aftn showers/tstms confined to extreme southern VA and ne NC, with
partly sunny skies south to mostly sunny north. Highs in the mid-
upper 80s N to the lower 80s south.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The forecast by late this weekend into the middle of next week will
be largely dependent on the evolution of the low pressure system
expected to develop off the southeast U.S. coast within the next few
days. 12Z suite of model guidance supports the development of this
low by this weekend but then greatly diverge on its eventual
movement next week. The low could develop sub-tropical or tropical
characteristics (see latest NHC TWO) as it drifts toward the
southeast U.S. coast this weekend. Even if it does so, it`s impact
would most likely be minimal across our FA...with the exception of
increased shower/thunderstorm chances and possible elevated
seas/increased rip current risk starting Sunday. For now, will
continue to carry chc pops (30-50%) Sun-Tues...lowering a bit by
next Wed. Temperatures, tempered by clouds and possible convection,
should be near normal through the period. Highs in the upper 70s to
low 80s. Remaining mild at night due to influx of higher dew point
air. Lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure off the Southeast coast will control the weather
through Friday. Low pressure east of the Bahamas will approach the
Carolinas during the weekend.

Quiet aviation conditions prevailed early Wednesday evening with
light winds...variable at times...and just high thin cirrus
overhead. Little change is indiated for the 00Z TAF period.
Scattered cumulus clouds are expected Thursday afternoon. Dew points
should remain low enough to prevent fog Thursday morning. Winds are
forecast to be below 10 knots through Thursday afternoon.

OUTLOOK...Chances for pcpn will be quite low through Saturday. Those
chances for showers and thunderstorms Sunday and Monday...mainly in
the afternoon and evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Benign boating conditions are expected through Thursday with high
pressure off the Carolina coast producing S-SW winds 5-15 kt and
seas 2-3 ft. Pressure gradient tightens a bit on Friday between the
offshore high and a Piedmont trough so that S winds average 10-15
kt. This may briefly push seas to 3-4 ft across the northern coastal
waters. Beyond that...SE winds around 10 kt are expected Saturday
with seas 2-3 ft. Watching for possible low pressure development off
the southeast coast by this weekend...which may bring increased seas
to the local waters Sun/Mon. As of now...winds look to remain SE 10-
15 kt Sun/Mon.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The monthly rainfall total to date for May at Richmond is 8.41".
May 2016 is currently the 6th wettest month of May on record at
Richmond.

Top 6 wettest months of May at Richmond

    1. 9.13"  1889
    2. 8.98"  1873
    3. 8.87"  1972
    4. 8.67"  1886
    5. 8.59"  2003
    6. 8.41"  2016 (to date)

* 1st 90 deg day has not yet occurred this year at climate sites:

                 (Avg Date / Last Yr):
*  RIC:           May 13   / May 12
*  ORF:           May 17   / May 12
*  SBY:           May 27   / Jun 1

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
TECHNICIANS ARE WORKING ON THE 88D RADAR WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN DOWN FOR MAINTENANCE THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...ALB/BMD/JDM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...JDM
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KRNK 251812
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
212 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to build off the southeast coast and push
warmer and more humid air into the region. This will bring well above
normal temperatures to the appalachians and central mid Atlantic
region...along with a chance for afternoon showers and
thunderstorms...into the weekend. Then...a developing area of low
pressure off the coast will begin moving in our direction and bring
greater chances for precipitation for the latter portion of the
Memorial Day weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1100 AM EDT Wednesday...

12Z/8AM RNK sounding was dry... PWAT 0.48. Models indicate
moistening forecast throughout the afternoon, but little or no
precip threat unless you reside west of I-77. Deeper moisture is
advancing across the OH/TN valleys...associated with scattered
showers...so our far western CWA may encounter the eastern fringe
of this activity during the late afternoon and evening. As the
high country of NC warms, the meso models are also indicating some
build-ups there with widely scattered showers and possibly a
thunderstorm after 3PM.

High pressure off the southeast coast will continue to push warmer and
more humid air in our direction today. A combination of orographic
effects from the Blue Ridge westward along with some upper level short
wave energy looks like it will be enough to generate some low chance
POPs for a late day shower.

For tonight it looks like any convection will be tapering off early but
there are indications that another impulse will keep some showers going
overnight with some additional development spreading eastward into the
piedmont. Will keep chance/slight chance pops going through the
overnight period for most locations.

With the influx of warmer air high temperatures will reach the middle
and upper 80s east of the Blue Ridge with upper 70s/around 80 more
common to the west. Lows tonight will generally be in the upper 50s to
lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 am EDT Wednesday...

Synoptic pattern will continue to feature a deep and highly diffluent
upper trough in the southwestern U.S. This system is not expected
to move much at all through the period. Meanwhile...a downstream
upper ridge will be located across the eastern half of the
country. For Thursday...the main focus for our region will be on a
short wave that is slated to eject northeast from the western U.S.
upper low into the Ohio Valley Thursday...then toward New England
by Friday. Ample moisture and instability will be present by
Thursday afternoon to support scattered showers and
thunderstorms...with the best focus west of the Blue Ridge closer
to the upper support and better thermodynamics. Dynamics are weak
at best...so expecting non-severe pulse thunderstorms. There is
the potential for showers to be ongoing/developing early in the
day Thu across the northwest...but the best coverage/intensity
will be during the afternoon into the early evening.

The aforementioned short wave moves northeast of the region
Friday. The southwest U.S. upper low drifts slightly further east
into the TX/OK region. As a strong short wave rounds the base of
the upper trough...the upper flow amplifies with the flow becoming
more meridional across the central and eastern U.S. Thus...it
appears that this next short wave will largely lift northwest of
the RNK CWA with upper ridging the dominate feature across our
region. Showers/thunderstorms Friday will be highly diurnally
driven and mainly focused across the Alleghanys and mountains of
southwest VA/northwest NC. Areas east of the Blue Ridge may see a
decrease in convection Friday as that area comes under increasing
subsidence on the northwest side of a developing low pressure area
across the Bahamas.

For Saturday...the western U.S. upper low continues with a strong
short wave lifting almost due north through the Midwest...thus
having little to no effect on the RNK CWA. Our attention will be
increasingly turning toward the southeast and a potential
developing tropical system across the Bahamas. All models indicate
strong potential for a tropical or subtropical system to develop
across the Bahamas and drift northwest toward the SC/NC coast. The
GFS remains one of the most aggressive models with this
development...pushing deep tropical moisture well northwest into
the RNK CWA by Sunday with PWATS into the 2+ inch range. The other
models remain less aggressive with this deep moisture...tending to
focus the effects of such closer to the NC/SC coast. This is in
agreement with WPC thinking at this time. For
Saturday...subsidence to the northwest of this developing low
pressure area will likely suppress convection for much of the
CWA...outside the Alleghanys and southeastern sections late in the
day.

One thing for sure during this period...our extended cool weather
of recent will be gone. This entire period will feel much more
like August with increasingly high humidity and temperatures in
the 70s mountains and 80s elsewhere. Steadily increasing
dewpoints/PWATS/RH values will result in some of the muggiest
conditions we have experienced so far this year and will be in
sharp contrast to the well below normal temperatures we have
experienced most of May to this point. Low temperatures will tend
to average 8-10 degrees above normal with max temps 5-8 degrees
above normal. The increase in humidity will be the most notable
part...however.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 430 am EDT Wednesday...

This period will be dominated largely by the aforementioned
tropical system slated to drift northwest into or near our region
Sunday into Monday. The upper flow will remain quite stagnant with
an upper high to our north and a broad upper low continuing in the
western U.S. Therefore...if the tropical system does drift into
the GA/SC/NC area as most models suggest...although there are
notable differences in the distance it will track inland...it will
likely linger for several days with non-existent steering
currents and blocked upper flow. The upper high to the north could
keep the system lingering in place for several days. Rainfall may
become a concern depending on how far inland the system tracks.
The ECMWF continues to paint the least ominous solution...keeping
the bulk of the precipitation and higher PWATS closer to the
coast. At a minimum...we can expect scattered diurnal convection
with warm/humid conditions through the period. Max temps will
remain mostly in the 70s mountains and 80s elsewhere...with lows
mainly in the 60s. Have not made any drastic changes to the
extended pops as there is still considerable uncertainty in
exactly how much precipitation we will see.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Wednesday...

Generally VFR conditions expected through the TAF valid
period...with a few exceptions...mainly in the form of late
night/early morning fog in some of the mountain valleys...and in
the vcnty of any shower activity. Main focus for shower activity
this evening will be west of Interstate 77 in addition to isolated
thunderstorms. Focusing mechanism is a short wave ejecting from a
broad upper low over the southwestern U.S. Best coverage of
showers this evening will be over the OH/TN valleys with little or
no impact to areas east of the Appalachians. As the short wave
moves northeast there will be a better opportunity for showers
and a few storms to develop across areas east of the Appalachians
Thursday afternoon.  Until then...VFR.

Extended discussion...

Wind flow through Friday will be out of the southwest with the
weather pattern more reflective of summer conditions, primarily
VFR except for widely scattered afternoon and evening showers
during the peak heating part of the day. Nightime fog also
possible in the mountain valleys, but mainly after midnight up
until an hour or two after daybreak.

Potential wind flow change is advertised by the models this
weekend per development of a storm system off the southeast
Atlantic Coast. Models differ quite a bit on timing and movement
of this feature so low confidence forecast beyond Saturday attm.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS/PM
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...PM/RAB
AVIATION...PM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 250846
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
446 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to build off the southeast coast and push
warmer and more humid air into the region. This will bring well above
normal temperatures to the appalachians and central mid Atlantic
region...along with a chance for afternoon showers and
thunderstorms...into the weekend. Then...a developing area of low
pressure off the coast will begin moving in our direction and bring
greater chances for precipitation for the latter portion of the
Memorial Day weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 430 AM EDT Tuesday...

High pressure off the southeast coast will continue to push warmer and
more humid air in our direction today. A combination of orographic
effects from the Blue Ridge westward along with some upper level short
wave energy looks like it will be enough to generate some low chance
POPs for a late day shower. Meso guidance has trended these chances
upward of late but do not have enough confidence in these wetter
solutions at this time to go with higher POPs far west so will wait and
see if the trend sticks around in later model runs and adjust upward if
needed. However there does appear to be enough support to add a slight
chance of thunder to the mix with this grid package.

For tonight it looks like any convection will be tapering off early but
there are indications that another impulse will keep some showers going
overnight with some additional development spreading eastward into the
piedmont. Will keep chance/slight chance pops going through the
overnight period for most locations.

With the influx of warmer air high temperatures will reach the middle
and upper 80s east of the Blue Ridge with upper 70s/around 80 more
common to the west. Lows tonight will generally be in the upper 50s to
lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 am EDT Wednesday...

Synoptic pattern will continue to feature a deep and highly diffluent
upper trough in the southwestern U.S. This system is not expected
to move much at all through the period. Meanwhile...a downstream
upper ridge will be located across the eastern half of the
country. For Thursday...the main focus for our region will be on a
short wave that is slated to eject northeast from the western U.S.
upper low into the Ohio Valley Thursday...then toward New England
by Friday. Ample moisture and instability will be present by
Thursday afternoon to support scattered showers and
thunderstorms...with the best focus west of the Blue Ridge closer
to the upper support and better thermodynamics. Dynamics are weak
at best...so expecting non-severe pulse thunderstorms. There is
the potential for showers to be ongoing/developing early in the
day Thu across the northwest...but the best coverage/intensity
will be during the afternoon into the early evening.

The aforementioned short wave moves northeast of the region
Friday. The southwest U.S. upper low drifts slightly further east
into the TX/OK region. As a strong short wave rounds the base of
the upper trough...the upper flow amplifies with the flow becoming
more meridional across the central and eastern U.S. Thus...it
appears that this next short wave will largely lift northwest of
the RNK CWA with upper ridging the dominate feature across our
region. Showers/thunderstorms Friday will be highly diurnally
driven and mainly focused across the Alleghanys and mountains of
southwest VA/northwest NC. Areas east of the Blue Ridge may see a
decrease in convection Friday as that area comes under increasing
subsidence on the northwest side of a developing low pressure area
across the Bahamas.

For Saturday...the western U.S. upper low continues with a strong
short wave lifting almost due north through the Midwest...thus
having little to no effect on the RNK CWA. Our attention will be
increasingly turning toward the southeast and a potential
developing tropical system across the Bahamas. All models indicate
strong potential for a tropical or subtropical system to develop
across the Bahamas and drift northwest toward the SC/NC coast. The
GFS remains one of the most aggressive models with this
development...pushing deep tropical moisture well northwest into
the RNK CWA by Sunday with PWATS into the 2+ inch range. The other
models remain less aggressive with this deep moisture...tending to
focus the effects of such closer to the NC/SC coast. This is in
agreement with WPC thinking at this time. For
Saturday...subsidence to the northwest of this developing low
pressure area will likely suppress convection for much of the
CWA...outside the Alleghanys and southeastern sections late in the
day.

One thing for sure during this period...our extended cool weather
of recent will be gone. This entire period will feel much more
like August with increasingly high humidity and temperatures in
the 70s mountains and 80s elsewhere. Steadily increasing
dewpoints/PWATS/RH values will result in some of the muggiest
conditions we have experienced so far this year and will be in
sharp contrast to the well below normal temperatures we have
experienced most of May to this point. Low temperatures will tend
to average 8-10 degrees above normal with max temps 5-8 degrees
above normal. The increase in humidity will be the most notable
part...however.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 430 am EDT Wednesday...

This period will be dominated largely by the aforementioned
tropical system slated to drift northwest into or near our region
Sunday into Monday. The upper flow will remain quite stagnant with
an upper high to our north and a broad upper low continuing in the
western U.S. Therefore...if the tropical system does drift into
the GA/SC/NC area as most models suggest...although there are
notable differences in the distance it will track inland...it will
likely linger for several days with non-existent steering
currents and blocked upper flow. The upper high to the north could
keep the system lingering in place for several days. Rainfall may
become a concern depending on how far inland the system tracks.
The ECMWF continues to paint the least ominous solution...keeping
the bulk of the precipitation and higher PWATS closer to the
coast. At a minimum...we can expect scattered diurnal convection
with warm/humid conditions through the period. Max temps will
remain mostly in the 70s mountains and 80s elsewhere...with lows
mainly in the 60s. Have not made any drastic changes to the
extended pops as there is still considerable uncertainty in
exactly how much precipitation we will see.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 140 AM EDT Wednesday...

Early in the TAF period we will have good conditions for
radiational cooling and this will likely generate some fog toward
daybreak. KLWB is most likely to see LIFR while KBCB may tempo to
IFR and KLYH/KDAN may see a period of MVFR vsbys. Any fog/stratus
will dissipate early Wednesday morning and leave sites with VFR
conditions for the rest of the period. However as the circulation
around high pressure off the southeast coast continues to pump warmer
and more humid air into the region from the southwest...some
showers may develop form the Blue Ridge west thanks to orographic
effects and some upper level short wave energy. Will use VCSH
west of the Ridge with no mention of precipitation to the east.
Winds will be light through the period.

Extended discussion...

Wind flow through Friday will be out of the southwest with the
weather pattern more reflective of summer conditions, primarily
VFR except for widely scattered afternoon and evening showers
during the peak heating part of the day. Nightime fog also
possible in the mountain valleys, but mainly after midnight up
until an hour or two after daybreak.

Potential wind flow change is advertised by the models this
weekend per development of a storm system off the southeast
Atlantic Coast. Models differ quite a bit on timing and movement
of this feature so low confidence forecast beyond Saturday attm.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...PM/RAB
AVIATION...DS/MBS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 250825
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
425 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will slide across the Mid Atlantic region then off
the coast today through tonight...then remain centered well off
the Mid Atlantic coast through Friday. Weak low pressure will
approach from the south Saturday through Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Upper level ridging and sfc hi pres will slide acrs the area to
the cst today into tngt. Lots of sunshine combined with a wsw sfc
wind and 850 mb temps expected to rise to ~15C this aftn, will
result in High temps in the mid to upr 80s most places.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The upper rdg and sfc hi pres will be off the cst or right alng
the cst Thu thru Fri. Expect a mostly sunny or partly sunny sky
both days with a little more humidity, as sw or s flo continues.
With 850mb temps rising to 16-17C Thu aftn, expect High temps in
the upr 80s/arnd 90 ovr most of the inland/piedmont of va/nc.
High temps ranging thru the 80s ovr the lwr md and va ern shr.
If any of our primary climate sites reach 90 deg this week, it
will be the first time this season (see climate section).

Forecast soundings not real enthusiastic about aftn tstm chcs the
next few days. Have slgt or sml chc pops ovr wrn/nw counties for
Thu aftn, and just slgt chc pops for now ovr those same areas for
Fri aftn, due to potential lee trof and weak instability alng/east
of the mountains. Highs on Fri in the mid/upr 80s...upr 70s/lwr
80s immediate cst. Lows in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Bermuda sfc high pressure remains over the wrn Atlantic Ocean
with mid-upper level ridging over the ne CONUS through at least
Sun. ECMWF starting to come more in line with the GFS model
solution of tracking a low pressure system into the Southeast
coast/Carolinas Fri night-Tue. Expect increasing clouds and
wraparound moisture moving into areas along/south of the
VA/NC border from the SE during the second half of Sat...with
a return to more dismal rainy/cloudy conditions anticipated
Sun-Tue. Thunderstorms will also be possible each aftn/evening
during this time. Overall, the GFS has been much more aggressive
than other long range models and have therefore trended the
forecast twd a SuperBlend/WPC blend for POPs and a
SuperBlend/WPC/MOS blend for sky cover. Low temps should remain
fairly unchanged with readings in the 60s. High temps are
expected to trend downward for Sat/Sun with highs in the
lower 80s (low-mid 70s beaches), and even lower for Sun with
highs in the 70s (upper 60s Atlantic beaches).

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure off the Carolina coast will dominate the weather
during the 06z TAF period. Dry/VFR wx is xpcd through Thu/Fri.
Moisture associated with low pressure in the Bahamas is expected
to spread precipitation to the area during the weekend.

Winds are forecast to remain aob 10 kt during the next 24
hours...generally fm the WSW. Little or no clouds are expected.
Limited or no fg xpcd this mrng.

&&

.MARINE...
No headlines necessary the next few days. Hi pres sfc-aloft
builds acrs the wtrs through tda...then rmns nr the mdatlc wtrs
through Fri/Sat...providing mnly SSW wnds blo 15 kt. Contg to
monitor psbl lo pres development off SE conus cst lt wk into the
wknd...which may bring incrsd SE wnds and deteriorating conds ovr
the local wtrs.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The monthly rainfall total to date for May at Richmond is 8.41".
May 2016 is currently the 6th wettest month of May on record at
Richmond.

Top 6 wettest months of May at Richmond

    1. 9.13"  1889
    2. 8.98"  1873
    3. 8.87"  1972
    4. 8.67"  1886
    5. 8.59"  2003
    6. 8.41"  2016 (to date)

Average 1st 90 deg day:
RICMay 13
ORFMay 17
SBYMay 27

1st 90 deg day last year (2015):
RICMay 12
ORFMay 12
SBYJun 1

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB
CLIMATE...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 250659
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
259 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure moves northeast along the New England coast as high
pressure settles over the area tonight. High pressure then shifts
southeast and off the coast for the middle and end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FYI...echoes drifting e across somerset county md appear to be
chaff as sat pictures/sfc obs do not support pcpn in that area.

Otw...expect mainly clear skies as high pres builds into the
region from the w. Lows in the mid 50s NW to the mid 60s SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Broad upper level ridging builds northeast from the Deep South
into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast regions Wednesday, before
sliding overhead into Thursday. 850mb temperatures rise to ~15C by
Wednesday afternoon...and 16-17c by Thursday afternoon. This
should result in highs reaching the mid/upper 80s inland...with a
few 90s possible Thursday afternoon. If any of our primary
climate sites reach 90 deg this week, it will be the first time
this season (see climate section).

Forecast soundings not real enthusiastic about afternoon
thunderstorm chances the next few days. Wednesday looks dry. Have
isolated thunderstorm chances mainly over the Piedmont
Thursday/Friday near potential lee trough and weak instability
along/east of the mountains. Highs Friday in the mid/upr 80s...upr
70s/low 80s immediate coast. Lows in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Bermuda sfc high pressure remains over the wrn Atlantic Ocean
with mid-upper level ridging over the ne CONUS through at least
Sun. ECMWF starting to come more in line with the GFS model
solution of tracking a low pressure system into the Southeast
coast/Carolinas Fri night-Tue. Expect increasing clouds and
wraparound moisture moving into areas along/south of the
VA/NC border from the SE during the second half of Sat...with
a return to more dismal rainy/cloudy conditions anticipated
Sun-Tue. Thunderstorms will also be possible each aftn/evening
during this time. Overall, the GFS has been much more aggressive
than other long range models and have therefore trended the
forecast twd a SuperBlend/WPC blend for POPs and a
SuperBlend/WPC/MOS blend for sky cover. Low temps should remain
fairly unchanged with readings in the 60s. High temps are
expected to trend downward for Sat/Sun with highs in the
lower 80s (low-mid 70s beaches), and even lower for Sun with
highs in the 70s (upper 60s Atlantic beaches).

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure off the Carolina coast will dominate the weather
during the 06z TAF period. Dry/VFR wx is xpcd through Thu/Fri.
Moisture associated with low pressure in the Bahamas is expected
to spread precipitation to the area during the weekend.

Winds are forecast to remain aob 10 kt during the next 24
hours...generally fm the WSW. Little or no clouds are expected.
Limited or no fg xpcd this mrng.

&&

.MARINE...
No headlines necessary the next few days. Hi pres sfc-aloft
builds acrs the wtrs through tda...then rmns nr the mdatlc wtrs
through Fri/Sat...providing mnly SSW wnds blo 15 kt. Contg to
monitor psbl lo pres development off SE conus cst lt wk into the
wknd...which may bring incrsd SE wnds and deteriorating conds ovr
the local wtrs.


&&

.CLIMATE...
The monthly rainfall total to date for May at Richmond is 8.41".
May 2016 is currently the 6th wettest month of May on record at
Richmond.

Top 6 wettest months of May at Richmond

    1. 9.13"  1889
    2. 8.98"  1873
    3. 8.87"  1972
    4. 8.67"  1886
    5. 8.59"  2003
    6. 8.41"  2016 (to date)

Average 1st 90 deg day:
RICMay 13
ORFMay 17
SBYMay 27

1st 90 deg day last year (2015):
RICMay 12
ORFMay 12
SBYJun 1

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/MPR
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...ALB/LSA
MARINE...ALB
CLIMATE...



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KLWX 250120
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
920 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge of high pressure will build south of the region through
the remainder of the week and into the weekend. A low pressure
system may affect the region late in the weekend and into early
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
High pressure will build overhead tonight...bringing mostly clear
skies along with light winds. Patchy fog is likely in a few
areas...dewpoint depressions this evening appear large enough to
prevent widespread dense fog. Lows will range from the mid to
upper 40s in the colder valleys of the Potomac Highlands to the
50s across most other locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Mostly sunny, warm, and dry weather will be the theme on Wednesday
as ridge of high pressure dominates. Will be a weakening remnant
vort/shortwave approaching from the west during the day, but
instability will be lacking as moisture return is slow to occur,
so only have a slight chance in the higher elevations of the far
western counties. Highs will be in the mid 80s pretty much area-
wide, with relatively low humidity as dew points hold in the 50s.
Wednesday night will also be dry, lows upper 50s to mid 60s.

Thursday will see more in the way of moisture return with dew
points rising back into the low/mid 60s. This will lead to the
development of some isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms,
especially in the higher terrain. Very weak wind field aloft
though, so organized severe not expected. Temperatures warm a few
more degrees with highs in the mid/upper 80s. A few showers/storms
may linger into Thursday night. Mild night in store with lows in
the 60s for all.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Remaining hot (U80s) and humid (U60s Tds) Friday with chances for
isolated afternoon thunderstorms in the moderate instability, very
low CAPE environment. Thunderstorm coverage will be greatest where
orographic forcing helps with convective initiation. With weak
steering flow, activity will have a difficult time moving off the
higher terrain, though there could be a storm or two east of the
Blue Ridge that develops due to localized influences.

Saturday looks dry across most of the area, as poor mid-level lapse
rates develop, with mid/upper ridge extending further north into the
area. This keeps any shower and storm activity confined to the west
over the higher terrain. Temperatures/dewpoints cool a few degrees
from Friday.

Changes begin to develop late Saturday into Sunday as low over the
Atlantic approaches the eastern seaboard from the SE. While ultimate
track of the system is uncertain at this time, precipitation shield
ahead of system could begin to impact the area as early as Sunday
and continue into early next week. Onshore flow and cloud cover
ahead of system will also help to cool temperatures back below
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Predominantly VFR through at least Thursday night. Some fog may
bring some reductions late tonight, early Wednesday morning, but
have left VFR for now as coverage will be patchy. Will also be
some isolated-scattered showers and thunderstorms around on
Thursday which may bring some brief reductions...but coverage will
be scattered at best. Winds out of the northwest this afternoon
with gusts up to about 17 knots become light and locally variable
tonight, before turning light south/southwest Wednesday through
Thursday night (less than 10 knots).

While most of Friday will end up VFR, could be a few isolated storms
with sub-VFR possible in and around any activity.

Uncertainty increases Sunday as coastal low approaches the eastern
seaboard, though rain chances (and associated sub-VFR) possible as
early as Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will continue to diminish this evening due to the loss of
mixing from daytime heating. Lighter winds are expected through
Thursday night. May be a few isolated- scattered thunderstorms on
Thursday.

Flow remains sub-SCA Friday and Saturday, though there is a low-
end chance for a thunderstorm over the waters Friday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
We put together some records (preliminary) of how this month compares
to rainy Mays on record for our area.

Washington, DC (records since 1871)
Most days in May with at least a trace: 25 (in 1952
and 1943) So far in 2016 (through 4PM EST on the 24th): 20

Most days in May with at least 0.01": 20 (in 2003)
So far in 2016 (through 4PM EST on the 24th): 18

Highest May monthly rainfall: 10.69" (in 1953 and 1889)
So far in 2016 (through 4PM EST on the 24th): 5.22"

Baltimore, MD (records since 1870)
Most days in May with at least a trace: 25 (in 2003)
So far in 2016 (through 4PM EST on the 24th): 20

Most days in May with at least 0.01": 21 (in 1882)
So far in 2016 (through 4PM EST on the 24th): 17

Highest May monthly rainfall: 8.71" (in 1989)
So far in 2016 (through 4PM EST on the 24th): 4.92"

Dulles, VA
Most days in May with at least a trace: 23 (in 2003)
So far in 2016 (through 4PM EST on the 24th): 21

Most days in May with at least 0.01": 21 (in 2003)
So far in 2016 (through 4PM EST on the 24th): 17

Highest May monthly rainfall: 10.26" (in 2009 and 1988)
So far in 2016 (through 4PM EST on the 24th): 6.07"

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MM
NEAR TERM...BJL/MM
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...BJL/MM/MSE
MARINE...BJL/MM/MSE
CLIMATE...DFH




000
FXUS61 KRNK 250112
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
912 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the southeastern United States
resulting in much warmer temperatures for the remainder of the
week.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 855 PM EDT Tuesday...

High based cumulus per moisture seen around 7h off the evening
RNK sounding should continue to fade with loss of heating making
for a mainly clear and comfortable overnight under high pressure.
However with better cooling in the valleys to near saturation, and
slightly higher dewpoints out east would expect another round of
at least patchy fog in spots by daybreak. This also supported by
forecast fog stability values off latest guidance so beefing up
coverage a bit more. Otherwise should again be a rather cool
overnight with lows mainly low/mid 50s, except a few 40s in the
valleys and outlying spots east of the mountains.


Previous discussion as of 330 PM EDT Tuesday...

Low pressure along the New England coast will continue to move
away from the region, replaced by high pressure which is currently
building over the southeastern CONUS. Rising heights/thicknesses
will result in warming temperatures surface/aloft, a considerable
change to the cloudy cool of recent past.

The near term forecast will feature mainly clear skies
tonight, and generally fair weather for Wednesday. Debris
cloudiness from showers/storms over the mid-MS valley is forecast
to drift east over the area Wednesday and Wednesday night, so
expecting a bit more in the way of mid/upper level cloudiness as
we transition into mid week. Can`t rule out an afternoon shower
in the far west Wednesday, but day as a whole is expected to be
mainly dry.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 340 PM EDT Tuesday...

Little change in weather pattern is expected Thursday and Friday
with ridge of high pressure overhead, and surface high pressure
centered over the southeast United States. Winds aloft will be out
of the west with 85H temps testing +16 deg C. This, along with
increasing dewpoints, will result in warm days and mild nights,
temperatures climbing into the 80s for highs, lows in the 50s to
lower 60s.

On Thursday there`s an upper level disturbance which is forecast
to pass to our northwest. This short-wave will likely provide
enough lift for scattered afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms mainly coinciding with the peak heating part of the
day. By Friday, the aforementioned disturbance will have exited
the region, support for showers waning as subsidence from high
pressure aloft dominating.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 350 PM EDT Tuesday...

Longer range models are converging on a solution which suggests
there will be a tropical sort of storm system develop off the
southeast Atlantic coast Friday into Saturday. If this occurs
then forecast challenge will be focused around timing and track of
this feature which could bring clouds/rain to our forecast area as
early as Sunday. On a positive note, this feature may serve
initially to induce increased subsidence across our area, so the
longer it takes to make land-fall the better the chance to
salvage our holiday weekend in terms of fair weather. The beach
forecast on the other hand is not looking too great. Anyone
planning to get an early jump on the summer beech season will
likely get a rude awakening. Regardless of the outcome, sun or
clouds, temperatures should be mild with highs in the 70s to lower
80s and lows in the 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 735 pm edt Tuesday...

High pressure will settle over the region overnight. It`s axis
will start to shift east on Wednesday. Moisture will be on the
increase across western parts of the region by the afternoon
hours. Primarily VFR conditions are expected through tomorrow
afternoon. The exception will be some valley fog late tonight
between roughly KBCB and KLWB. Winds will be light or calm
overnight. By late morning Wednesday, a southwest or west wind of
5 to 10kts is forecast.

Extended discussion...

As of 200 PM EDT Tuesday...

Wind flow through Friday will be out of the southwest with the
weather pattern more reflective of summer conditions, primarily
VFR except for widely scattered afternoon and evening showers
during the peak heating part of the day. Nightime fog also
possible in the mountain valleys, but mainly after midnight up
until an hour or two after daybreak.

Potential wind flow change is advertised by the models this
weekend per development of a storm system off the southeast
Atlantic Coast. Models differ quite a bit on timing and movement
of this feature so low confidence forecast beyond Saturday attm.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...JH/PM
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...DS/PM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 242357
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
757 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure moves northeast along the New England coast as high
pressure settles over the area tonight. High pressure then shifts
southeast and off the coast for the middle and end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
low pressure continues to lift slowly NE and away from the New
England coast tonight with high pressure building in from the
west. Expect mainly clear skies with Lows in the mid 50s NW to
the mid 60s SE coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Broad upper level ridging builds northeast from the Deep South
into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast regions Wednesday, before
sliding overhead into Thursday. 850mb temperatures rise to ~15C by
Wednesday afternoon...and 16-17c by Thursday afternoon. This
should result in highs reaching the mid/upper 80s inland...with a
few 90s possible Thursday afternoon. If any of our primary
climate sites reach 90 deg this week, it will be the first time
this season (see climate section).

Forecast soundings not real enthusiastic about afternoon
thunderstorm chances the next few days. Wednesday looks dry. Have
isolated thunderstorm chances mainly over the Piedmont
Thursday/Friday near potential lee trough and weak instability
along/east of the mountains. Highs Friday in the mid/upr 80s...upr
70s/low 80s immediate coast. Lows in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Bermuda sfc high pressure remains over the wrn Atlantic Ocean
with mid-upper level ridging over the ne CONUS through at least
Sun. ECMWF starting to come more in line with the GFS model
solution of tracking a low pressure system into the Southeast
coast/Carolinas Fri night-Tue. Expect increasing clouds and
wraparound moisture moving into areas along/south of the
VA/NC border from the SE during the second half of Sat...with
a return to more dismal rainy/cloudy conditions anticipated
Sun-Tue. Thunderstorms will also be possible each aftn/evening
during this time. Overall, the GFS has been much more aggressive
than other long range models and have therefore trended the
forecast twd a SuperBlend/WPC blend for POPs and a
SuperBlend/WPC/MOS blend for sky cover. Low temps should remain
fairly unchanged with readings in the 60s. High temps are
expected to trend downward for Sat/Sun with highs in the
lower 80s (low-mid 70s beaches), and even lower for Sun with
highs in the 70s (upper 60s Atlantic beaches).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Stlt shows upper level low still situated on the New England coast.
The threat for showers this evening has ended over the area around
the TAF sites and dry weather is forecast for the next few days.
High pressure off the Carolina coast will dominate the weather
during the 00z TAF period. Moisture associated with low pressure in
the Bahamas is expected to spread precipitation to the area during
the weekend.

Winds are forecast to remain below 10 knots during the next 24
hours...generally from a west or southwest direction. Little or no
clouds are expected. Dew points will likely be too low for fog
Wednesday morning and most locations will have a light breeze
overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
West winds become more s-sw aob 15kt late tonight through Fri
as high pressure sfc-aloft settles over the area through at
least Fri night. Conditions generally quiet over the waters
during this time with seas 2-3ft/waves 1-2ft.

Long range models coming into better agreement with tracking
a low pressure system into the Southeast coast/Carolinas
Fri night-Tue. Winds become more e-se/onshore with speeds
generally aob 15kt during this timeframe. Seas anticipated to
build to 3-4ft Fri night-Sun...then building to 4-5ft Sun
night into Tue. Waves in Ches Bay still around 1-2ft Sat-Sun...
building in srn Ches Bay to 2-3ft Sun due to increasing onshore
swell/seas. At this time, the GFS is the most aggressive model
solution and therefore have only nudge about 25% of the ongoing
wave height forecast twd WaveWatch guidance.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The monthly rainfall total to date for May at Richmond is 8.41".
May 2016 is currently the 6th wettest month of May on record at
Richmond.

Top 6 wettest months of May at Richmond

    1. 9.13"  1889
    2. 8.98"  1873
    3. 8.87"  1972
    4. 8.67"  1886
    5. 8.59"  2003
    6. 8.41"  2016 (to date)

Average 1st 90 deg day:
RICMay 13
ORFMay 17
SBYMay 27

1st 90 deg day last year (2015):
RICMay 12
ORFMay 12
SBYJun 1

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...BMD
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 242314
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
714 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure moves northeast along the New England coast as high
pressure settles over the area tonight. High pressure then shifts
southeast and off the coast for the middle and end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
low pressure continues to lift slowly NE and away from the New
England coast tonight with high pressure building in from the
west. Expect mainly clear skies with Lows in the mid 50s NW to
the mid 60s SE coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Broad upper level ridging builds northeast from the Deep South
into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast regions Wednesday, before
sliding overhead into Thursday. 850mb temperatures rise to ~15C by
Wednesday afternoon...and 16-17c by Thursday afternoon. This
should result in highs reaching the mid/upper 80s inland...with a
few 90s possible Thursday afternoon. If any of our primary
climate sites reach 90 deg this week, it will be the first time
this season (see climate section).

Forecast soundings not real enthusiastic about afternoon
thunderstorm chances the next few days. Wednesday looks dry. Have
isolated thunderstorm chances mainly over the Piedmont
Thursday/Friday near potential lee trough and weak instability
along/east of the mountains. Highs Friday in the mid/upr 80s...upr
70s/low 80s immediate coast. Lows in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Bermuda sfc high pressure remains over the wrn Atlantic Ocean
with mid-upper level ridging over the ne CONUS through at least
Sun. ECMWF starting to come more in line with the GFS model
solution of tracking a low pressure system into the Southeast
coast/Carolinas Fri night-Tue. Expect increasing clouds and
wraparound moisture moving into areas along/south of the
VA/NC border from the SE during the second half of Sat...with
a return to more dismal rainy/cloudy conditions anticipated
Sun-Tue. Thunderstorms will also be possible each aftn/evening
during this time. Overall, the GFS has been much more aggressive
than other long range models and have therefore trended the
forecast twd a SuperBlend/WPC blend for POPs and a
SuperBlend/WPC/MOS blend for sky cover. Low temps should remain
fairly unchanged with readings in the 60s. High temps are
expected to trend downward for Sat/Sun with highs in the
lower 80s (low-mid 70s beaches), and even lower for Sun with
highs in the 70s (upper 60s Atlantic beaches).

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Sfc low pressure situated from the New England coast sw to NJ,
Drier air and VFR conditions prevail acrs the local area with a W
flow, although sct/bkn CU are now pushing SE from the mtns and
look to overspread area terminals shortly. Still VFR in any cigs
that prevail for a few hrs and while an isolated shower or tstm
can`t be ruled out through around 00Z this evening, the
probability is too low to include in any TAF. A much more summer
like pattern is expected for the rest of the week. VFR conditions
expected mostly, however one could not rule out some patchy fog
late at night/through sunrise especially with all of the moisture
from recent rains. Not much in the way of rain chances, but
isolated late aftn/evening tstms will be possible Thu and Fri. A
somewhat more unsettled pattern potentially returns by Sat night/Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
West winds become more s-sw aob 15kt late tonight through Fri
as high pressure sfc-aloft settles over the area through at
least Fri night. Conditions generally quiet over the waters
during this time with seas 2-3ft/waves 1-2ft.

Long range models coming into better agreement with tracking
a low pressure system into the Southeast coast/Carolinas
Fri night-Tue. Winds become more e-se/onshore with speeds
generally aob 15kt during this timeframe. Seas anticipated to
build to 3-4ft Fri night-Sun...then building to 4-5ft Sun
night into Tue. Waves in Ches Bay still around 1-2ft Sat-Sun...
building in srn Ches Bay to 2-3ft Sun due to increasing onshore
swell/seas. At this time, the GFS is the most aggressive model
solution and therefore have only nudge about 25% of the ongoing
wave height forecast twd WaveWatch guidance.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The monthly rainfall total to date for May at Richmond is 8.41".
May 2016 is currently the 6th wettest month of May on record at
Richmond.

Top 6 wettest months of May at Richmond

    1. 9.13"  1889
    2. 8.98"  1873
    3. 8.87"  1972
    4. 8.67"  1886
    5. 8.59"  2003
    6. 8.41"  2016 (to date)

Average 1st 90 deg day:
RICMay 13
ORFMay 17
SBYMay 27

1st 90 deg day last year (2015):
RICMay 12
ORFMay 12
SBYJun 1

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/MPR
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...BMD




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 241948
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
348 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure moves northeast along the New England coast as high
pressure settles over the area tonight. High pressure then shifts
southeast and off the coast for the middle and end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Sfc low pressure currently resides over coastal Massachusetts.
That low will continue to lift slowly NE and away from the New
England coast tonight. Other than an isolated shower chance
mainly along/south of I-64 late this aftn/eve...expect a mainly
clear sky tonight. Lows in the mid 50s NW to the mid 60s SE coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Broad upper level ridging builds northeast from the Deep South
into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast regions Wednesday, before
sliding overhead into Thursday. 850mb temperatures rise to ~15C by
Wednesday afternoon...and 16-17c by Thursday afternoon. This
should result in highs reaching the mid/upper 80s inland...with a
few 90s possible Thursday afternoon. If any of our primary
climate sites reach 90 deg this week, it will be the first time
this season (see climate section).

Forecast soundings not real enthusiastic about afternoon
thunderstorm chances the next few days. Wednesday looks dry. Have
isolated thunderstorm chances mainly over the Piedmont
Thursday/Friday near potential lee trough and weak instability
along/east of the mountains. Highs Friday in the mid/upr 80s...upr
70s/low 80s immediate coast. Lows in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Bermuda sfc high pressure remains over the wrn Atlantic Ocean
with mid-upper level ridging over the ne CONUS through at least
Sun. ECMWF starting to come more in line with the GFS model
solution of tracking a low pressure system into the Southeast
coast/Carolinas Fri night-Tue. Expect increasing clouds and
wraparound moisture moving into areas along/south of the
VA/NC border from the SE during the second half of Sat...with
a return to more dismal rainy/cloudy conditions anticipated
Sun-Tue. Thunderstorms will also be possible each aftn/evening
during this time. Overall, the GFS has been much more aggressive
than other long range models and have therefore trended the
forecast twd a SuperBlend/WPC blend for POPs and a
SuperBlend/WPC/MOS blend for sky cover. Low temps should remain
fairly unchanged with readings in the 60s. High temps are
expected to trend downward for Sat/Sun with highs in the
lower 80s (low-mid 70s beaches), and even lower for Sun with
highs in the 70s (upper 60s Atlantic beaches).

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Sfc low pressure situated from the New England coast sw to NJ,
Drier air and VFR conditions prevail acrs the local area with a W
flow, although sct/bkn CU are now pushing SE from the mtns and
look to overspread area terminals shortly. Still VFR in any cigs
that prevail for a few hrs and while an isolated shower or tstm
can`t be ruled out through around 00Z this evening, the
probability is too low to include in any TAF. A much more summer
like pattern is expected for the rest of the week. VFR conditions
expected mostly, however one could not rule out some patchy fog
late at night/through sunrise especially with all of the moisture
from recent rains. Not much in the way of rain chances, but
isolated late aftn/evening tstms will be possible Thu and Fri. A
somewhat more unsettled pattern potentially returns by Sat night/Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
West winds become more s-sw aob 15kt late tonight through Fri
as high pressure sfc-aloft settles over the area through at
least Fri night. Conditions generally quiet over the waters
during this time with seas 2-3ft/waves 1-2ft.

Long range models coming into better agreement with tracking
a low pressure system into the Southeast coast/Carolinas
Fri night-Tue. Winds become more e-se/onshore with speeds
generally aob 15kt during this timeframe. Seas anticipated to
build to 3-4ft Fri night-Sun...then building to 4-5ft Sun
night into Tue. Waves in Ches Bay still around 1-2ft Sat-Sun...
building in srn Ches Bay to 2-3ft Sun due to increasing onshore
swell/seas. At this time, the GFS is the most aggressive model
solution and therefore have only nudge about 25% of the ongoing
wave height forecast twd WaveWatch guidance.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The monthly rainfall total to date for May at Richmond is 8.41".
May 2016 is currently the 6th wettest month of May on record at
Richmond.

Top 6 wettest months of May at Richmond

    1. 9.13"  1889
    2. 8.98"  1873
    3. 8.87"  1972
    4. 8.67"  1886
    5. 8.59"  2003
    6. 8.41"  2016 (to date)

Average 1st 90 deg day:
RICMay 13
ORFMay 17
SBYMay 27

1st 90 deg day last year (2015):
RICMay 12
ORFMay 12
SBYJun 1

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...BMD
CLIMATE...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KLWX 241833
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
233 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge of high pressure will build south of the region through
the remainder of the week and into the weekend. A low pressure
system may affect the region late in the weekend and into early
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Upper low continuing to slowly pull away from the region with
drier northwest flow working into the area. Mostly sunny skies
will continue for the rest of the day along with a few cirrus as
well as some instability cumulus. Can`t rule out an isolated
sprinkle or light shower either but the vast majority of the
region should remain dry. Sky will also appear slightly hazy in
some locations with wildfire smoke lofted high in the atmosphere.

Mostly clear skies and light winds for the overnight hours as
ridge of high pressure noses in. Some patchy fog likely in a few
areas, especially north and west, but low levels are drying
considerably, and crossover temperatures will struggle to be met,
so widespread fog not expected. Lows generally 50-60F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Mostly sunny, warm, and dry weather will be the theme on Wednesday
as ridge of high pressure dominates. Will be a weakening remnant
vort/shortwave approaching from the west during the day, but
instability will be lacking as moisture return is slow to occur,
so only have a slight chance in the higher elevations of the far
western counties. Highs will be in the mid 80s pretty much area-
wide, with relatively low humidity as dew points hold in the 50s.
Wednesday night will also be dry, lows upper 50s to mid 60s.

Thursday will see more in the way of moisture return with dew
points rising back into the low/mid 60s. This will lead to the
development of some isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms,
especially in the higher terrain. Very weak wind field aloft
though, so organized severe not expected. Temperatures warm a few
more degrees with highs in the mid/upper 80s. A few showers/storms
may linger into Thursday night. Mild night in store with lows in
the 60s for all.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Remaining hot (U80s) and humid (U60s Tds) Friday with chances for
isolated afternoon thunderstorms in the moderate instability, very
low CAPE environment. Thunderstorm coverage will be greatest where
orographic forcing helps with convective initiation. With weak
steering flow, activity will have a difficult time moving off the
higher terrain, though there could be a storm or two east of the
Blue Ridge that develops due to localized influences.

Saturday looks dry across most of the area, as poor mid-level lapse
rates develop, with mid/upper ridge extending further north into the
area. This keeps any shower and storm activity confined to the west
over the higher terrain. Temperatures/dewpoints cool a few degrees
from Friday.

Changes begin to develop late Saturday into Sunday as low over the
Atlantic approaches the eastern seaboard from the SE. While ultimate
track of the system is uncertain at this time, precipitation shield
ahead of system could begin to impact the area as early as Sunday
and continue into early next week. Onshore flow and cloud cover
ahead of system will also help to cool temperatures back below
normal.


&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Predominantly VFR through at least Thursday night. Some fog may
bring some reductions late tonight, early Wednesday morning, but
have left VFR for now as coverage will be patchy. Will also be
some isolated-scattered showers and thunderstorms around on
Thursday which may bring some brief reductions...but coverage will
be scattered at best. Winds out of the northwest this afternoon
with gusts up to about 17 knots become light and locally variable
tonight, before turning light south/southwest Wednesday through
Thursday night (less than 10 knots).

While most of Friday will end up VFR, could be a few isolated storms
with sub-VFR possible in and around any activity.

Uncertainty increases Sunday as coastal low approaches the eastern
seaboard, though rain chances (and associated sub-VFR) possible as
early as Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Marginal SCA in effect for gusts up to 20 knots through this
afternoon. Lighter winds return tonight and through Thursday
night. May be a few isolated-scattered thunderstorms on Thursday.

Flow remains sub-SCA Friday and Saturday, though there is a low-
end chance for a thunderstorm over the waters Friday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
We put together some records (preliminary) of how this month compares
to rainy Mays on record for our area.

Washington, DC (records since 1871)
Most days in May with at least a trace: 25 (in 1952
and 1943) So far in 2016 (through 2PM EST on the 24th): 20

Most days in May with at least 0.01": 20 (in 2003)
So far in 2016 (through 2PM EST on the 24th): 18

Highest May monthly rainfall: 10.69" (in 1953 and 1889)
So far in 2016 (through 2PM EST on the 24th): 5.22"

Baltimore, MD (records since 1870)
Most days in May with at least a trace: 25 (in 2003)
So far in 2016 (through 2PM EST on the 24th): 20

Most days in May with at least 0.01": 21 (in 1882)
So far in 2016 (through 2AM EST on the 24th): 17

Highest May monthly rainfall: 8.71" (in 1989)
So far in 2016 (through 2PM EST on the 24th): 4.92"

Dulles, VA
Most days in May with at least a trace: 23 (in 2003)
So far in 2016 (through 2PM EST on the 24th): 21

Most days in May with at least 0.01": 21 (in 2003)
So far in 2016 (through 2PM EST on the 24th): 17

Highest May monthly rainfall: 10.26" (in 2009 and 1988)
So far in 2016 (through 2PM EST on the 24th): 6.07"

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MM
NEAR TERM...MM
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...MM/MSE
MARINE...MM/MSE
CLIMATE...DFH




000
FXUS61 KRNK 241801
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
201 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Our stretch of cool weather will be coming to an end as high pressure
builds over the southeast United States and ushers much warmer air into
the region. Temperatures will be well above normal for most of the week
with highs by Thursday ranging from the upper 80s across the piedmont
to the lower and middle 80s west of the Blue Ridge. However along with
the warm temperatures will come increasing humidity and the chance for
afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1155 AM EDT Tuesday...

Morning RNK sounding still pretty cool aloft. This will allow for
at least scattered clouds this afternoon per steep low/mid level
lapse rates. Forecast soundings indicate modest cu depth with
cloud bases around 4kft and max cloud depth to about 10kft. This
may generate a few sprinkles, but overall trend is for warming to
take place aloft, 700 mb temperatures increasing from m1 deg C to
+2 deg C by the end of the day. This should cap cloud depth and
prevent deep convection. The Meso models and HRRR generate some
isolated showers, but POPs AOB 10%.

The upper low which has been with us for several days will still
have enough influence over our weather today to keep a just a
slight chance of showers across the region...especially far north
and east...thanks to the combination of diurnal instability and
steep lapse rates in the cold pool of air aloft. The prospects for
thunder look to be very limited indeed so will not include in the
grids. As the day wears on and the low continues pulling off to
the northeast much warmer air will begin to surge in from the
southwest. This will give our temperatures a much needed boost to
slightly above normal...which should feel like a tropical heat
wave after our recent stretch of cool weather. Expect highs today
to reach the lower 80s east of the Blue Ridge with generally
middle and upper 70s to the west. Tonight looks to be quiet with
mostly clear skies and lows ranging from the middle and upper 50s
east to upper 40s and lower 50s west. There may also be valley fog
forming once again late tonight into early Wednesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 am EDT Tuesday...

Upper heights and 850mb temps continue to rise through the period
as the northeast U.S. upper low continues to lift northeast into
the north Atlantic and troughing deepens and shifts inland across
the southwest U.S. Upper heights across our region will be
nearing 588dm with 850mb temps averaging near +16C through the
period. This will result in much warmer temps than we have seen
over the past 14 days...with temps actually above normal through
the entire period...generally lows in the 50s to lower 60s and
highs in the 70s mountains and 80s elsewhere...nearing 90 across
the Piedmont.

Little if any synoptic-scale forcing is evident on Wednesday with
weak upper ridging in place...but all models depict an area of
moisture pooling across the Appalachians..typical of differential
heating across the mountains...which could yield isolated to
widely scattered afternoon showers/thunderstorms. Instability is
minimal at this point...so with no dynamics...activity would be
diurnally driven and non-severe.

On Thursday...the pattern becomes slightly more interesting and
more active convectively speaking. While the region is still under
broad upper ridging...the southwest U.S. tough continues to shift
inland...but more importantly a notable short wave is ejected to
the northeast of the parent upper low into the TN/OH valley by
afternoon. The NAM hits the feature the hardest...but it is
evident via all of the longer range models. This increase in
forcing along with increased thermodynamics...should yield
scattered showers and thunderstorms...again largely diurnally
driven.

By Friday...the aforementioned disturbance has moved to our
northwest...but again a notable area of moisture pooling is
evident across the mountains...but the best area of such has
shifted slightly northwest from Thursday`s location. Of more
importance at this point is a potential tropical system apparent in
most models developing off the southeast U.S. coast. While all
models indicate this system in varying degrees...there are vast
differences in the track of such system...with the GFS most
aggressive in taking in inland into SC/NC...where it circulates
about into the weekend and early next week. This feature may serve
initially to induce increased subsidence across the south and east
portion of our CWA Friday...but beyond that...cannot hinge on any
one solution at this point.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 415 am EDT Tuesday...

As noted in the section above...weather conditions across the
region through the weekend and into early next week will depend
largely on the track...intensity...and evolution of a potential
tropical system moving from the Bahamas northwest into the
southeast states per GFS...or hugging the SC/NC coast line per
most other models. Clearly...the GFS solution would have a
significant impact on our region in terms of cloud cover and
precipitation...while other model solutions keeping the low track
closer to the coast...would result in more subsidence across our
region and minimal impacts. For sure temperatures will remain on
the warm side with no significant change in air mass underneath a
continuing large-scale ridge...with humidity levels high through
the period. Meanwhile...the western system remains mostly intact
across the western states while overall weakening and lifting more
north than east. Thus...outside a potential tropical system...the
pattern is becoming more-and-more summerlike than we have seen so
far this year. Look for a continuation of highs in the 70s
mountains and 80s elsewhere...with lows mostly in the 50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Tuesday...

Closed upper low continuing to spin off the New England coast,
this feature gradually moving northeast and away from the
forecast area. Influence less than in previous days, but still
close enough to generate high based cu/sc and some mid
clouds, mainly east of the Blue Ridge. Cannot completely rule out
an afternoon shower east of the Blue Ridge, coverage certainly
not enough to include in the tafs. if there is a risk it would be
northeast of KLYH through sunset. after sunset...expecting clear
skies all terminals.

Wet antecedent conditions from rainfall previous days in
combination with light winds and clear skies will promote valley
fog formation in the mountain valleys tonight. Main impact will be
KLWB/KBCB and vicinity. Expect fog to lift fairly quickly after 9
AM Wednesday with return of widespread VFR.

Winds generally light WNW-WSW through the period...speeds 10 mph
or less...near calm after 00Z/8PM...increasing again after 13Z/9AM
Wednesday but generally less than 10 mph.

Extended discussion...

Wind flow through Friday will be out of the southwest with the
weather pattern more reflective of summer conditions, primarily
VFR except for widely scattered afternoon and evening showers
during the peak heating part of the day. Nightime fog also
possible in the mountain valleys, but mainly after midnight up
until an hour or two after daybreak.

Potential wind flow change is advertised by the models this
weekend per development of a storm system off the southeast
Atlantic Coast. Models differ quite a bit on timing and movement
of this feature so low confidence forecast beyond Saturday attm.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS/PM
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...KK/RAB
AVIATION...PM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 241756
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
156 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move northeast off the New England coast during
today, while high pressure builds in from the west. High pressure
will move right over the area tonight...then slides off the coast
for Wednesday afternoon into Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Sfc low pressure currently sits off the New England coast. That
low will continue to lift slowly NE and away from the local area
today. One last piece of energy/associated lift rotating SE on the
back side of the departing low will provide a slight chance for
showers this afternoon (during peak heating). Otherwise, expect
sunshine to mix with some clouds...and warmer temps across the
area. Highs will be in the upr 70s to low 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Broad upper level ridging builds northeast from the Deep South
into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast region Tonight into
Wednesday, before sliding overhead into Thursday. 850mb
temperatures rise to ~15C by Wednesday afternoon...and 16-17c by
Thursday afternoon. BL mixing will reach to around 850mb, and
should result in highs reaching the mid/upper 80s inland, with
low/mid 80s closer to the coast, and upper 70s for the immediate
Atlantic coast of the Ern Shore. After morning lows in the 50s to
near 60, high temperatures creep up about a category area wide
into the upper 80s/around 90 inland (low to mid 80s coastal
sections) on Thursday. Forecast soundings/model cross-sections
indicate rather dry conditions aloft,owing mainly to subsidence
and light downslope flow aloft. Will therefore keep pops in silent
range <10% on Wed, with only slight chc for more seasonally
typical diurnally-driven pulse convection on Thursday afternoon
and early evening. Light downslope flow will likely keep areal
coverage of any convection on the low side, and will also serve to
mix dewpoints down into the mid/upper 50s in the mid to late
afternoon hours both Wed/Thu.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Bermuda sfc high pressure resides over the wrn Atlantic Ocean
through the long term periods as mid-upper level ridging moves
over the ne CONUS during this time. Although the GFS is trying
to develop low pressure over the Caribbean/Bahamas during
Thu night/Fri and then tracking it into the Carolinas Sat-Mon,
the ECMWF is keeping this system suppressed farther south due
to mid-upper ridging well-rooted across the ne CONUS through
at least Sun night before beginning to impact the Mid Atlantic
Region. WPC forecast is also very similar to the ECMWF and am
starting to lean more twd this warmer and drier solution...
especially since GFS ensembles support the GFS as more of an
outlier at this point. Will trend the long range forecast in
this direction regarding precip and temperatures.

High temps continue to run above normal throughout the extended
forecast periods and are now closer to being around 10 degrees
above normal Fri (highs in the upper 80s inland...upper 70s to
mid 80s immediate coast). For Sat-Mon, temps are around
5-7 degrees above normal (highs in the mid 80s Sat/Sun and
lower 80s Mon). Low temps also still trending around
5-10 degrees above normal Thu-Sun nights (lows generally in
the mid 60s).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Sfc low pressure situated from the New England coast sw to NJ,
Drier air and VFR conditions prevail acrs the local area with a W
flow, although sct/bkn CU are now pushing SE from the mtns and
look to overspread area terminals shortly. Still VFR in any cigs
that prevail for a few hrs and while an isolated shower or tstm
can`t be ruled out through around 00Z this evening, the
probability is too low to include in any TAF. A much more summer
like pattern is expected for the rest of the week. VFR conditions
expected mostly, however one could not rule out some patchy fog
late at night/through sunrise especially with all of the moisture
from recent rains. Not much in the way of rain chances, but
isolated late aftn/evening tstms will be possible Thu and Fri. A
somewhat more unsettled pattern potentially returns by Sat night/Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Lo pres well e of DE/srn NJ early this mrng tracks sloly ne and away
fm the mdatlc rgn tda. Conds blo SCA for the wtrs tda. WNW wnds
aob 15 kt become SW lt. Hi pres sfc-aloft builds acrs the wtrs
tngt- Wed...then rmns nr the mdatlc wtrs through
Fri/Sat...providing mnly SSW wnds blo 15 kt. Will cont to monitor
psbl lo pres development off SE conus cst lt wk into the
wknd...which may bring incrsd SE wnds and deteriorating conds ovr
the local wtrs.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The monthly rainfall total to date for May at Richmond is 8.41".
May 2016 is currently the 6th wettest month of May on record at
Richmond.

Top 6 wettest months of May at Richmond

    1. 9.13"  1889
    2. 8.98"  1873
    3. 8.87"  1972
    4. 8.67"  1886
    5. 8.59"  2003
    6. 8.41"  2016 (to date)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...JDM/TMG
SHORT TERM...MAM/TMG
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...ALB
CLIMATE...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KRNK 241556
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1156 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Our stretch of cool weather will be coming to an end as high pressure
builds over the southeast United States and ushers much warmer air into
the region. Temperatures will be well above normal for most of the week
with highs by Thursday ranging from the upper 80s across the piedmont
to the lower and middle 80s west of the Blue Ridge. However along with
the warm temperatures will come increasing humidity and the chance for
afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1155 AM EDT Tuesday...

Morning RNK sounding still pretty cool aloft. This will allow for
at least scattered clouds this afternoon per steep low/mid level
lapse rates. Forecast soundings indicate modest cu depth with
cloud bases around 4kft and max cloud depth to about 10kft. This
may generate a few sprinkles, but overall trend is for warming to
take place aloft, 700 mb temperatures increasing from m1 deg C to
+2 deg C by the end of the day. This should cap cloud depth and
prevent deep convection. The Meso models and HRRR generate some
isolated showers, but POPs AOB 10%.

The upper low which has been with us for several days will still
have enough influence over our weather today to keep a just a
slight chance of showers across the region...especially far north
and east...thanks to the combination of diurnal instability and
steep lapse rates in the cold pool of air aloft. The prospects for
thunder look to be very limited indeed so will not include in the
grids. As the day wears on and the low continues pulling off to
the northeast much warmer air will begin to surge in from the
southwest. This will give our temperatures a much needed boost to
slightly above normal...which should feel like a tropical heat
wave after our recent stretch of cool weather. Expect highs today
to reach the lower 80s east of the Blue Ridge with generally
middle and upper 70s to the west. Tonight looks to be quiet with
mostly clear skies and lows ranging from the middle and upper 50s
east to upper 40s and lower 50s west. There may also be valley fog
forming once again late tonight into early Wednesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 am EDT Tuesday...

Upper heights and 850mb temps continue to rise through the period
as the northeast U.S. upper low continues to lift northeast into
the north Atlantic and troughing deepens and shifts inland across
the southwest U.S. Upper heights across our region will be
nearing 588dm with 850mb temps averaging near +16C through the
period. This will result in much warmer temps than we have seen
over the past 14 days...with temps actually above normal through
the entire period...generally lows in the 50s to lower 60s and
highs in the 70s mountains and 80s elsewhere...nearing 90 across
the Piedmont.

Little if any synoptic-scale forcing is evident on Wednesday with
weak upper ridging in place...but all models depict an area of
moisture pooling across the Appalachians..typical of differential
heating across the mountains...which could yield isolated to
widely scattered afternoon showers/thunderstorms. Instability is
minimal at this point...so with no dynamics...activity would be
diurnally driven and non-severe.

On Thursday...the pattern becomes slightly more interesting and
more active convectively speaking. While the region is still under
broad upper ridging...the southwest U.S. tough continues to shift
inland...but more importantly a notable short wave is ejected to
the northeast of the parent upper low into the TN/OH valley by
afternoon. The NAM hits the feature the hardest...but it is
evident via all of the longer range models. This increase in
forcing along with increased thermodynamics...should yield
scattered showers and thunderstorms...again largely diurnally
driven.

By Friday...the aforementioned disturbance has moved to our
northwest...but again a notable area of moisture pooling is
evident across the mountains...but the best area of such has
shifted slightly northwest from Thursday`s location. Of more
importance at this point is a potential tropical system apparent in
most models developing off the southeast U.S. coast. While all
models indicate this system in varying degrees...there are vast
differences in the track of such system...with the GFS most
aggressive in taking in inland into SC/NC...where it circulates
about into the weekend and early next week. This feature may serve
initially to induce increased subsidence across the south and east
portion of our CWA Friday...but beyond that...cannot hinge on any
one solution at this point.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 415 am EDT Tuesday...

As noted in the section above...weather conditions across the
region through the weekend and into early next week will depend
largely on the track...intensity...and evolution of a potential
tropical system moving from the Bahamas northwest into the
southeast states per GFS...or hugging the SC/NC coast line per
most other models. Clearly...the GFS solution would have a
significant impact on our region in terms of cloud cover and
precipitation...while other model solutions keeping the low track
closer to the coast...would result in more subsidence across our
region and minimal impacts. For sure temperatures will remain on
the warm side with no significant change in air mass underneath a
continuing large-scale ridge...with humidity levels high through
the period. Meanwhile...the western system remains mostly intact
across the western states while overall weakening and lifting more
north than east. Thus...outside a potential tropical system...the
pattern is becoming more-and-more summerlike than we have seen so
far this year. Look for a continuation of highs in the 70s
mountains and 80s elsewhere...with lows mostly in the 50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 730 am EDT Tuesday...

Closed upper low continuing to spin off the mid Atlantic coast
will begin to move northeast away from the forecast area today.
Influence less than in previous days...but still close enough to
generate high based cu/sc and some mid clouds...mainly east of the
Blue Ridge. Cannot completely rule out an afternoon shower east of
the Blue Ridge...but at this point can really only support this
for KLYH. Wet antecedent conditions in the cool airmass and
decent radiational cooling has allowed for some fog...mainly KLWB
and KBCB. Expect fog to lift fairly quickly after 9 am and
through the remainder of the day and until 08z/09z Wed...expect
VFR conditions with any cigs aoa 050. Not as confident about
development of low clouds/fog Wed morning with less favorable
antecedent conditions...but enough confidence to advertise at KLWB
and KBCB.

Winds generally light WNW-WSW through the period...speeds mostly
8kts or less...near calm after 00z.

High confidence in cigs through the TAF valid period.
Medium confidence in vsbys til 14Z and aft 08Z...otherwise high
confidence in vfr vsbys.
Medium to high confidence in wind dir/spd through the TAF valid
period.

Extended discussion...

We will be going to a more summer like pattern mid to late week
with high pressure offshore providing south to southwest flow.
Thus, mainly VFR weather expected.

However, the potential exists for late night/early morning fog at
times around KLWB/KBCB and in some of the deeper mountain valleys.
Also some convection could pop up each afternoon in the mountains
Thursday into Saturday, making for localized afternoon/evening
MVFR restrictions.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS/PM
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...KK/RAB
AVIATION...JH/MBS/RAB




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 241410
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1010 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move northeast off the New England coast during
today, while high pressure builds in from the west. High pressure
will move right over the area tonight...then slides off the coast
for Wednesday afternoon into Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Sfc low pressure currently sits off the New England coast. That
low will continue to lift slowly NE and away from the local area
today. One last piece of energy/associated lift rotating SE on the
back side of the departing low will provide a slight chance for
showers this afternoon (during peak heating). Otherwise, expect
sunshine to mix with some clouds...and warmer temps across the
area. Highs will be in the upr 70s to low 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Broad upper level ridging builds northeast from the Deep South
into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast region Tonight into
Wednesday, before sliding overhead into Thursday. 850mb
temperatures rise to ~15C by Wednesday afternoon...and 16-17c by
Thursday afternoon. BL mixing will reach to around 850mb, and
should result in highs reaching the mid/upper 80s inland, with
low/mid 80s closer to the coast, and upper 70s for the immediate
Atlantic coast of the Ern Shore. After morning lows in the 50s to
near 60, high temperatures creep up about a category area wide
into the upper 80s/around 90 inland (low to mid 80s coastal
sections) on Thursday. Forecast soundings/model cross-sections
indicate rather dry conditions aloft,owing mainly to subsidence
and light downslope flow aloft. Will therefore keep pops in silent
range <10% on Wed, with only slight chc for more seasonally
typical diurnally-driven pulse convection on Thursday afternoon
and early evening. Light downslope flow will likely keep areal
coverage of any convection on the low side, and will also serve to
mix dewpoints down into the mid/upper 50s in the mid to late
afternoon hours both Wed/Thu.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Bermuda sfc high pressure resides over the wrn Atlantic Ocean
through the long term periods as mid-upper level ridging moves
over the ne CONUS during this time. Although the GFS is trying
to develop low pressure over the Caribbean/Bahamas during
Thu night/Fri and then tracking it into the Carolinas Sat-Mon,
the ECMWF is keeping this system suppressed farther south due
to mid-upper ridging well-rooted across the ne CONUS through
at least Sun night before beginning to impact the Mid Atlantic
Region. WPC forecast is also very similar to the ECMWF and am
starting to lean more twd this warmer and drier solution...
especially since GFS ensembles support the GFS as more of an
outlier at this point. Will trend the long range forecast in
this direction regarding precip and temperatures.

High temps continue to run above normal throughout the extended
forecast periods and are now closer to being around 10 degrees
above normal Fri (highs in the upper 80s inland...upper 70s to
mid 80s immediate coast). For Sat-Mon, temps are around
5-7 degrees above normal (highs in the mid 80s Sat/Sun and
lower 80s Mon). Low temps also still trending around
5-10 degrees above normal Thu-Sun nights (lows generally in
the mid 60s).

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Sfc lo pres off the mdatlc cst will cont to track ne and away fm
the rgn through tda. Drier air fm the W sloly spreads ovr the fa
through tda...resulting in VFR conds. Very lo prob for isold tstm
ern VA...lwr SE MD this aftn/early eve. A much more summer like
pattern is expected for the rest of the week. VFR conditions
expected mostly, however one could not rule out some fog at night
especially with all of the moisture from recent rains.

&&

.MARINE...
Lo pres well e of DE/srn NJ early this mrng tracks sloly ne and away
fm the mdatlc rgn tda. Conds blo SCA for the wtrs tda. WNW wnds
aob 15 kt become SW lt. Hi pres sfc-aloft builds acrs the wtrs
tngt- Wed...then rmns nr the mdatlc wtrs through
Fri/Sat...providing mnly SSW wnds blo 15 kt. Will cont to monitor
psbl lo pres development off SE conus cst lt wk into the
wknd...which may bring incrsd SE wnds and deteriorating conds ovr
the local wtrs.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The monthly rainfall total to date for May at Richmond is 8.41".
May 2016 is currently the 6th wettest month of May on record at
Richmond.

Top 6 wettest months of May at Richmond

    1. 9.13"  1889
    2. 8.98"  1873
    3. 8.87"  1972
    4. 8.67"  1886
    5. 8.59"  2003
    6. 8.41"  2016 (to date)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...MAM/TMG
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB
CLIMATE...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KLWX 241347
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
947 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast this morning will move
northeastward towards New England today and then toward the
Canadian Maritimes tonight. High pressure over the southern
Appalachians this morning will settle off the southeastern coast
by Wednesday and generally persist through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Upper low continuing to slowly pull away from the region with
drier northwest flow working into the area. Expecting mostly sunny
skies across the region today with a few cirrus as well as some
instability cumulus developing this afternoon. Can`t rule out an
isolated sprinkle or light shower either but the vast majority of
the region should remain dry. Sky may also appear slightly hazy
with wildfire smoke lofted high in the atmosphere. Highs around 80
degrees pretty much area-wide with a northwest breeze gusting
15-20 mph.

Previous discussion...
Tonight high pressure shifts east but ridge with weak flow sits
overhead. This will again promote patchy fog development.
Otherwise...seasonal to a bit mild with lows in the 50s...60s in
the urban core.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Wednesday high pressure will dominate with continued warming.
Highs will reach the low to mid 80s. Southwest flow will continue
milder pattern Wednesday night...but an approaching weak system
will bring increased clouds and maybe even a stray shower late in
the mountains. This threat will spread east during the day
Thursday as weakening shortwave moves into the area. Have best
POPs west given some terrain influence likely...but advection will
likely carry activity east towards the metro. This will wane but
not completely end overnight as the shortwave drifts overhead.
Highs on Thursday will reach well into the 80s while lows Thursday
night stay well into the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
An upper level northern stream ridge will persist over the eastern
CONUS Friday into Monday/Memorial Day. A southern stream low is
expected to develop off the southeastern CONUS coast per 00Z global
guidance consensus. Whether this low comes ashore or persists in the
gulf stream is yet to be determined.

Friday looks to be unstable with light sly flow and mainly terrain
driven diurnal thunderstorms.

Onshore flow and rain are possible at some point sunday into next
week from the coastal low. The 00Z GFS and ECMWF both feature
Memorial Day Monday into Tuesday as rainy. This would be a fitting
end to a rainy month.

Instability would be low in onshore flow Monday/Tuesday with
showers the expected precip.

Temperatures may be on steady cooling trend Friday into next week
due to this coastal low. Friday may yet have 90F temperatures in the
Balt-Wash metro where cloud cover should be less than farther west.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Predominantly VFR through at least Thursday night. Some fog may
bring some reductions late tonight, early Wednesday morning, but
have left VFR for now as coverage will be patchy. Will also be
some scattered showers and thunderstorms around on Thursday which
may bring some brief reductions.

Light sly flow and diurnal thunderstorms Friday. ifr conds expected
in heaviest activity.

Forecast confidence drops this weekend through Memorial Day with a
coastal low likely on SErn CONUS. Onshore flow and rain chances
increase Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Marginal SCA in effect for gusts up to 20 knots through this
afternoon. Lighter winds return tonight and through Thursday but
shower/storm threat returns Thursday.

Light sly flow continues Friday. Flow looks to become onshore over
the weekend and persist into Tuesday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Water levels a half foot above normal early this morning. NWly
flow should keep any rises limited. No coastal flooding is
expected today.

&&

.CLIMATE...
We put together some records (preliminary) of how this month compares
to rainy Mays on record for our area.

Washington, DC (records since 1871)
Most days in May with at least a trace: 25 (in 1952
and 1943) So far in 2016 (through 2AM EST on the 24th): 20

Most days in May with at least 0.01": 20 (in 2003)
So far in 2016 (through 2AM EST on the 24th): 18

Highest May monthly rainfall: 10.69" (in 1953 and 1889)
So far in 2016 (through 2AM EST on the 24th): 5.22"

Baltimore, MD (records since 1870)
Most days in May with at least a trace: 25 (in 2003)
So far in 2016 (through 2AM EST on the 24th): 20

Most days in May with at least 0.01": 21 (in 1882)
So far in 2016 (through 2AM EST on the 24th): 16

Highest May monthly rainfall: 8.71" (in 1989)
So far in 2016 (through 2AM EST on the 24th): 4.92"

Dulles, VA
Most days in May with at least a trace: 23 (in 2003)
So far in 2016 (through 2AM EST on the 24th): 21

Most days in May with at least 0.01": 21 (in 2003)
So far in 2016 (through 2AM EST on the 24th): 17

Highest May monthly rainfall: 10.26" (in 2009 and 1988)
So far in 2016 (through 2AM EST on the 24th): 6.07"

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...MM/RCM
SHORT TERM...RCM
LONG TERM...BAJ
AVIATION...BAJ/MM/RCM
MARINE...BAJ/MM/RCM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RCM
CLIMATE...DFH




000
FXUS61 KRNK 241139
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
739 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Our stretch of cool weather will be coming to an end as high pressure
builds over the southeast United States and ushers much warmer air into
the region. Temperatures will be well above normal for most of the week
with highs by Thursday ranging from the upper 80s across the piedmont
to the lower and middle 80s west of the Blue Ridge. However along with
the warm temperatures will come increasing humidity and the chance for
afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 430 AM EDT Tuesday...

After some dense valley fog burns off early this morning...the upper
low which has been with us for several days will still have enough
influence over our weather today to keep a just a slight chance of
showers across the region...especially far north and east...thanks to
the combination of diurnal instability and steep lapse rates in the
cold pool of air aloft. The prospects for thunder look to be very
limited indeed so will not include in the grids. As the day wears on
and the low continues pulling off to the northeast much warmer air will
begin to surge in from the southwest. This will give our temperatures a
much needed boost to slightly above normal...which should feel like a
tropical heat wave after our recent stretch of cool weather. Expect
highs today to reach the lower 80s east of the Blue Ridge with
generally middle and upper 70s to the west. Tonight looks to be quiet
with mostly clear skies and lows ranging from the middle and upper 50s
east to upper 40s and lower 50s west. There may also be valley fog
forming once again late tonight into early Wednesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 am EDT Tuesday...

Upper heights and 850mb temps continue to rise through the period
as the northeast U.S. upper low continues to lift northeast into
the north Atlantic and troughing deepens and shifts inland across
the southwest U.S. Upper heights across our region will be
nearing 588dm with 850mb temps averaging near +16C through the
period. This will result in much warmer temps than we have seen
over the past 14 days...with temps actually above normal through
the entire period...generally lows in the 50s to lower 60s and
highs in the 70s mountains and 80s elsewhere...nearing 90 across
the Piedmont.

Little if any synoptic-scale forcing is evident on Wednesday with
weak upper ridging in place...but all models depict an area of
moisture pooling across the Appalachians..typical of differential
heating across the mountains...which could yield isolated to
widely scattered afternoon showers/thunderstorms. Instability is
minimal at this point...so with no dynamics...activity would be
diurnally driven and non-severe.

On Thursday...the pattern becomes slightly more interesting and
more active convectively speaking. While the region is still under
broad upper ridging...the southwest U.S. tough continues to shift
inland...but more importantly a notable short wave is ejected to
the northeast of the parent upper low into the TN/OH valley by
afternoon. The NAM hits the feature the hardest...but it is
evident via all of the longer range models. This increase in
forcing along with increased thermodynamics...should yield
scattered showers and thunderstorms...again largely diurnally
driven.

By Friday...the aforementioned disturbance has moved to our
northwest...but again a notable area of moisture pooling is
evident across the mountains...but the best area of such has
shifted slightly northwest from Thursday`s location. Of more
importance at this point is a potential tropical system apparent in
most models developing off the southeast U.S. coast. While all
models indicate this system in varying degrees...there are vast
differences in the track of such system...with the GFS most
aggressive in taking in inland into SC/NC...where it circulates
about into the weekend and early next week. This feature may serve
initially to induce increased subsidence across the south and east
portion of our CWA Friday...but beyond that...cannot hinge on any
one solution at this point.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 415 am EDT Tuesday...

As noted in the section above...weather conditions across the
region through the weekend and into early next week will depend
largely on the track...intensity...and evolution of a potential
tropical system moving from the Bahamas northwest into the
southeast states per GFS...or hugging the SC/NC coast line per
most other models. Clearly...the GFS solution would have a
significant impact on our region in terms of cloud cover and
precipitation...while other model solutions keeping the low track
closer to the coast...would result in more subsidence across our
region and minimal impacts. For sure temperatures will remain on
the warm side with no significant change in air mass underneath a
continuing large-scale ridge...with humidity levels high through
the period. Meanwhile...the western system remains mostly intact
across the western states while overall weakening and lifting more
north than east. Thus...outside a potential tropical system...the
pattern is becoming more-and-more summerlike than we have seen so
far this year. Look for a continuation of highs in the 70s
mountains and 80s elsewhere...with lows mostly in the 50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 730 am EDT Tuesday...

Closed upper low continuing to spin off the mid Atlantic coast
will begin to move northeast away from the forecast area today.
Influence less than in previous days...but still close enough to
generate high based cu/sc and some mid clouds...mainly east of the
Blue Ridge. Cannot completely rule out an afternoon shower east of
the Blue Ridge...but at this point can really only support this
for KLYH. Wet antecedent conditions in the cool airmass and
decent radiational cooling has allowed for some fog...mainly KLWB
and KBCB. Expect fog to lift fairly quickly after 9 am and
through the remainder of the day and until 08z/09z Wed...expect
VFR conditions with any cigs aoa 050. Not as confident about
development of low clouds/fog Wed morning with less favorable
antecedent conditions...but enough confidence to advertise at KLWB
and KBCB.

Winds generally light WNW-WSW through the period...speeds mostly
8kts or less...near calm after 00z.

High confidence in cigs through the TAF valid period.
Medium confidence in vsbys til 14Z and aft 08Z...otherwise high
confidence in vfr vsbys.
Medium to high confidence in wind dir/spd through the TAF valid
period.

Extended discussion...

We will be going to a more summer like pattern mid to late week
with high pressure offshore providing south to southwest flow.
Thus, mainly VFR weather expected.

However, the potential exists for late night/early morning fog at
times around KLWB/KBCB and in some of the deeper mountain valleys.
Also some convection could pop up each afternoon in the mountains
Thursday into Saturday, making for localized afternoon/evening
MVFR restrictions.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...KK/RAB
AVIATION...JH/MBS/RAB




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 241045
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
645 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move northeast off the New England coast during
today, while high pressure builds in from the west. High pressure
will move right over the area tonight...then slides off the coast
for Wednesday afternoon into Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Early this morng, sfc low pressure was sitting well off the New
Jersey coast. That low will move away to the ne during today just
off the New England cst. One last piece of energy/associated lift
on the back side of the departing low will provide slgt to chc
pops for showers ovr the nrn and ern portions of the region thru
abt 8 or 9 am. Otherwise, expect increasing sunshine and warmer
temps acrs the area. Highs will be in the upr 70s to lwr 80s. In
that warmth, lingering weak instabilty, and one last upr lvl
disturbance rotating thru behind the upr trof, there could be an
isltd shower or tstm this aftn.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Broad upper level ridging builds northeast from the Deep South
into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast region Tonight into
Wednesday, before sliding overhead into Thursday. 850mb
temperatures rise to ~15C by Wednesday afternoon...and 16-17c by
Thursday afternoon. BL mixing will reach to around 850mb, and
should result in highs reaching the mid/upper 80s inland, with
low/mid 80s closer to the coast, and upper 70s for the immediate
Atlantic coast of the Ern Shore. After morning lows in the 50s to
near 60, high temperatures creep up about a category area wide
into the upper 80s/around 90 inland (low to mid 80s coastal
sections) on Thursday. Forecast soundings/model cross-sections
indicate rather dry conditions aloft,owing mainly to subsidence
and light downslope flow aloft. Will therefore keep pops in silent
range <10% on Wed, with only slight chc for more seasonally
typical diurnally-driven pulse convection on Thursday afternoon
and early evening. Light downslope flow will likely keep areal
coverage of any convection on the low side, and will also serve to
mix dewpoints down into the mid/upper 50s in the mid to late
afternoon hours both Wed/Thu.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Bermuda sfc high pressure resides over the wrn Atlantic Ocean
through the long term periods as mid-upper level ridging moves
over the ne CONUS during this time. Although the GFS is trying
to develop low pressure over the Caribbean/Bahamas during
Thu night/Fri and then tracking it into the Carolinas Sat-Mon,
the ECMWF is keeping this system suppressed farther south due
to mid-upper ridging well-rooted across the ne CONUS through
at least Sun night before beginning to impact the Mid Atlantic
Region. WPC forecast is also very similar to the ECMWF and am
starting to lean more twd this warmer and drier solution...
especially since GFS ensembles support the GFS as more of an
outlier at this point. Will trend the long range forecast in
this direction regarding precip and temperatures.

High temps continue to run above normal throughout the extended
forecast periods and are now closer to being around 10 degrees
above normal Fri (highs in the upper 80s inland...upper 70s to
mid 80s immediate coast). For Sat-Mon, temps are around
5-7 degrees above normal (highs in the mid 80s Sat/Sun and
lower 80s Mon). Low temps also still trending around
5-10 degrees above normal Thu-Sun nights (lows generally in
the mid 60s).

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Sfc lo pres off the mdatlc cst will cont to track ne and away fm
the rgn through tda. Drier air fm the W sloly spreads ovr the fa
through tda...resulting in VFR conds. Very lo prob for isold tstm
ern VA...lwr SE MD this aftn/early eve. A much more summer like
pattern is expected for the rest of the week. VFR conditions
expected mostly, however one could not rule out some fog at night
especially with all of the moisture from recent rains.

&&

.MARINE...
Lo pres well e of DE/srn NJ early this mrng tracks sloly ne and away
fm the mdatlc rgn tda. Conds blo SCA for the wtrs tda. WNW wnds
aob 15 kt become SW lt. Hi pres sfc-aloft builds acrs the wtrs
tngt- Wed...then rmns nr the mdatlc wtrs through
Fri/Sat...providing mnly SSW wnds blo 15 kt. Will cont to monitor
psbl lo pres development off SE conus cst lt wk into the
wknd...which may bring incrsd SE wnds and deteriorating conds ovr
the local wtrs.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 21 UTC/5 pm EDT Observation at Richmond (KRIC), rain total
for the day is 0.60". This would bring monthly total to 8.41" for
May. May 2016 is currently the 6th wettest month of May on record
at Richmond.

Top 6 wettest months of May at Richmond

    1. 9.13"  1889
    2. 8.98"  1873
    3. 8.87"  1972
    4. 8.67"  1886
    5. 8.59"  2003
    6. 8.41"  2016 (to date)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...MAM/TMG
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB
CLIMATE...




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