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000
FXUS61 KRNK 221131
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
731 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
MOVE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT AND WILL COVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...

DEEP UPPER TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING.
SHORT WAVE OVER MISSOURI REACHES THE BASE OF THE TROF AND CLOSES OFF
AN UPPER LOW NEAR SOUTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. MODELS ALSO SHOWING COLDER
500 MB TEMPERATURES OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

FRONT HAS CLEARED FORECAST AREA. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
TODAY AND TONIGHT AND WILL REACH +8 TO +10 BY 12Z/8AM TUESDAY. AN
EVEN BIGGER CHANGE IN THE DEW POINTS WAS ALREADY UNDERWAY. SURFACE
DEW POINTS HAVE LOWERED INTO THE UPPER 40S IN SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA. BY THIS AFTERNOON PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE LESS
THAN 0.50 INCHES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THE WAS CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS MORNING...BUT AS
THE HIGH GETS CLOSER...WINDS WILL DIMINISH. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE THIS
EVENING. WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND THE LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT THE COOLER AIR OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER AREA
RIVERS AND LAKES WILL RESULT IN FOG FORMATION.

BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWED A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
FROM SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA INTO THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS THIS
MORNING. WILL KEEP A SIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA THROUGH NOON. AS THE WINDS AND UPSLOPE FORCING
DIMINISHES...THE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE. THIS MAY TAKE MOST OF THE
DAY IN THE FAR NORTHWEST PART OF COUNTY WARNING AREA.

STAYED BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS BASED ON IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS DIPPING INTO THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT MONDAY...

A STRONG DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE CENTERED OVER NEW
ENGLAND...WEDGING DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR THE
MOST PART...THIS WEDGE WILL KEEP THE AREA COOL AND DRY. MODELS ARE
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY. THE STRENGTH
OF THIS LOW VARIES BETWEEN MODELS. IN RESPONSE TO THIS UPPER LOW...A
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE NAM
KEEPS THIS DISTURBANCE AND ITS PRECIPITATION ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLOWLY PUSHES IT INLAND TOWARDS THE
THE NC/VA PIEDMONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE
PROGRESSIVE...ADVANCING THIS PRECIPITATION NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHT RAIN ENTERS THE PIEDMONT
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE ECM IS SLOWER AND TRACKS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
NORTHWARD OVER THE APPALACHIANS. THIS SCENARIO WOULD BRING
PRECIPITATION FURTHER WESTWARD/INLAND THAN THE GFS/NAM FOR WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ECM HAS LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE BLUE
RIDGE WITH STRONGER CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL PIEDMONT OF VA/NC
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANY ONE OR A COMBINATION OF THE MODELS COULD BE
RIGHT. IT DOES APPEAR THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL STRENGTHEN THE
WEDGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRONGER WEDGE WOULD SUPPORT LIGHTER
PRECIPITATION AND MORE SO TOWARDS THE PIEDMONT. SINCE CONFIDENCE IS
LOW FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR RAIN ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

THE WEDGE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN NORMAL ON TUESDAY. KEPT
TUESDAY TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE SINCE THE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING
A MOSTLY CLEAR DAY AND A DRY EASTERLY FLOW. DESPITE THE STRENGTH OF
THE WEDGE ON WEDNESDAY...EASTERLY FLOW AND A FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC
WOULD INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR STRATUS CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN
TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE COOLEST GUIDANCE (NAM). IF THE CHANCES FOR
RAIN LOOKS MORE LIKELY...WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES ALONG AND EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE WILL BE LUCKY TO HIT THE UPPER 60S. THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE HAS UNIFORM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NE STATES ON THURSDAY WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT WESTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO
A PROLONGED EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

MODELS ARE STARTING TO AGREE ON A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
FORMING ACROSS THE SE STATES LATE IN THE WEEK...HOWEVER THERE IS
STILL MAJOR DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT WHICH WILL AFFECT HOW MUCH
MOISTURE CAN GET PULLED UP INTO THE REGION. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE
MUCH DRIER THAN THE ECMWF. DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EASTWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT MONDAY...

COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO THE GULF
COAST STATES AT 11Z/7AM. SURFACE WIND WERE FROM THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS IN THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH NOON.

MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE WESTERN UPSLOPE
AREAS....INCLUDING KBLF AND KLWB THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AND THE NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW WEAKENS...THE CLOUDS WILL
ERODE. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT KLWB AND KBLF WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
AFTER 21Z/5PM.

HAVE ADDED LIFR FOG IN FOR KLWB AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECTING COOL AIR
OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER GREENBRIER RIVER WILL PRODUCE FOG.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR IN THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL
RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE AT NIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH AND COOL AIR MASS DECOUPLES. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE GULF COAST MAY BRING IFR
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...AMS/RAB



000
FXUS61 KRNK 221131
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
731 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
MOVE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT AND WILL COVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...

DEEP UPPER TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING.
SHORT WAVE OVER MISSOURI REACHES THE BASE OF THE TROF AND CLOSES OFF
AN UPPER LOW NEAR SOUTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. MODELS ALSO SHOWING COLDER
500 MB TEMPERATURES OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

FRONT HAS CLEARED FORECAST AREA. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
TODAY AND TONIGHT AND WILL REACH +8 TO +10 BY 12Z/8AM TUESDAY. AN
EVEN BIGGER CHANGE IN THE DEW POINTS WAS ALREADY UNDERWAY. SURFACE
DEW POINTS HAVE LOWERED INTO THE UPPER 40S IN SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA. BY THIS AFTERNOON PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE LESS
THAN 0.50 INCHES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THE WAS CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS MORNING...BUT AS
THE HIGH GETS CLOSER...WINDS WILL DIMINISH. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE THIS
EVENING. WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND THE LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT THE COOLER AIR OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER AREA
RIVERS AND LAKES WILL RESULT IN FOG FORMATION.

BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWED A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
FROM SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA INTO THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS THIS
MORNING. WILL KEEP A SIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA THROUGH NOON. AS THE WINDS AND UPSLOPE FORCING
DIMINISHES...THE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE. THIS MAY TAKE MOST OF THE
DAY IN THE FAR NORTHWEST PART OF COUNTY WARNING AREA.

STAYED BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS BASED ON IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS DIPPING INTO THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT MONDAY...

A STRONG DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE CENTERED OVER NEW
ENGLAND...WEDGING DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR THE
MOST PART...THIS WEDGE WILL KEEP THE AREA COOL AND DRY. MODELS ARE
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY. THE STRENGTH
OF THIS LOW VARIES BETWEEN MODELS. IN RESPONSE TO THIS UPPER LOW...A
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE NAM
KEEPS THIS DISTURBANCE AND ITS PRECIPITATION ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLOWLY PUSHES IT INLAND TOWARDS THE
THE NC/VA PIEDMONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE
PROGRESSIVE...ADVANCING THIS PRECIPITATION NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHT RAIN ENTERS THE PIEDMONT
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE ECM IS SLOWER AND TRACKS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
NORTHWARD OVER THE APPALACHIANS. THIS SCENARIO WOULD BRING
PRECIPITATION FURTHER WESTWARD/INLAND THAN THE GFS/NAM FOR WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ECM HAS LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE BLUE
RIDGE WITH STRONGER CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL PIEDMONT OF VA/NC
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANY ONE OR A COMBINATION OF THE MODELS COULD BE
RIGHT. IT DOES APPEAR THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL STRENGTHEN THE
WEDGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRONGER WEDGE WOULD SUPPORT LIGHTER
PRECIPITATION AND MORE SO TOWARDS THE PIEDMONT. SINCE CONFIDENCE IS
LOW FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR RAIN ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

THE WEDGE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN NORMAL ON TUESDAY. KEPT
TUESDAY TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE SINCE THE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING
A MOSTLY CLEAR DAY AND A DRY EASTERLY FLOW. DESPITE THE STRENGTH OF
THE WEDGE ON WEDNESDAY...EASTERLY FLOW AND A FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC
WOULD INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR STRATUS CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN
TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE COOLEST GUIDANCE (NAM). IF THE CHANCES FOR
RAIN LOOKS MORE LIKELY...WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES ALONG AND EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE WILL BE LUCKY TO HIT THE UPPER 60S. THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE HAS UNIFORM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NE STATES ON THURSDAY WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT WESTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO
A PROLONGED EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

MODELS ARE STARTING TO AGREE ON A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
FORMING ACROSS THE SE STATES LATE IN THE WEEK...HOWEVER THERE IS
STILL MAJOR DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT WHICH WILL AFFECT HOW MUCH
MOISTURE CAN GET PULLED UP INTO THE REGION. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE
MUCH DRIER THAN THE ECMWF. DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EASTWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT MONDAY...

COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO THE GULF
COAST STATES AT 11Z/7AM. SURFACE WIND WERE FROM THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS IN THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH NOON.

MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE WESTERN UPSLOPE
AREAS....INCLUDING KBLF AND KLWB THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AND THE NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW WEAKENS...THE CLOUDS WILL
ERODE. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT KLWB AND KBLF WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
AFTER 21Z/5PM.

HAVE ADDED LIFR FOG IN FOR KLWB AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECTING COOL AIR
OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER GREENBRIER RIVER WILL PRODUCE FOG.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR IN THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL
RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE AT NIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH AND COOL AIR MASS DECOUPLES. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE GULF COAST MAY BRING IFR
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...AMS/RAB



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221109
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
709 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TODAY THEN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BACK TO THE REGION FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT HAS MADE ITS WAY OFFSHORE THIS MORNING WITH RAPID
CLEARING IN ITS WAKE. WILL CARRY MINIMAL POPS (15-20%) ACROSS FAR
SERN ZONES UNTIL 16Z AS THE LAST BIT OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT EXITS. COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPR 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT WILL PROMOTE
DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED ACROSS SERN AREAS LATER TONIGHT WHICH WILL HELP CLOUDS
THICKEN OVERNIGHT. MAINLY CLEAR NW AND N. STILL SETTING UP TO BE A
COOL NIGHT WEST...WITH INLAND AREAS (WEST OF I-95) DROPPING TO
BETWEEN 45 AND 50 DEGREES (MID 50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE STILL FAVORING A DRY DAY TUESDAY WITH THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO PA AND NEW ENGLAND...RIDGING DOWN INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...A WEAK CUT-OFF UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS LOW WILL PUSH ADDITIONAL MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY SO THAT THE SKY MAY TURN OUT
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS SERN AREAS...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY NORTH. HIGHS
IN THE LOW 70S (PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES).

MODEL SPREAD STARTS TO WIDEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY WITH REGARDS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OF THE CUT-
OFF LOW. HPC FAVORS THE ECMWF/ECMWF ENS MEAN...AND CANNOT ARGUE
WITH THAT ATTM. THAT SOLUTION FAVORS THE CUT-OFF LOW LINGERING
OVER THE SERN U.S. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH A COASTAL
FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN INTO OUR FAR SERN ZONES LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH AND INCREASE TO SOLID CHC POPS ACROSS NE NC
AND FAR SE VA ON WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
NORTH OF A LINE FROM FVX TO LFI TO CAPE CHARLES. TURNING OUT
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY ALL AREAS BY WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
UPR 40S WEST TO THE LOW 60S AT THE COAST. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE
LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD IS NOW LOOKING SOMEWHAT WETTER WITH
THE 00Z MODEL CYCLE. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE AND BROUGHT A
CHANCE OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH
INTO MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. THE ECMWF LINGERS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN INTO FRIDAY AS WHAT`S LEFT OF THE WEAK
CUT-OFF LOW LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. BY
THE WEEKEND...AM EXPECTING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO
EXPAND SOUTH AND EAST...RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS
IN THE LOW/MID 70S THURSDAY/FRIDAY...WARMING INTO THE UPR 70S TO
AROUND 80 THIS WEEKEND. LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE MAINLY DRY...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF A
BRIEF -SHRA AT ECG AND ORF. A SW WIND OF 8-12KT WILL SHIFT TO NW
THEN N BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING...AND BECOME LOCALLY GUSTY UP
TO 20KT AT SBY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NW TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE FRONT AND ATTEMPTS
TO NUDGE NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL RA ALONG WITH REDUCED VSBY AND LOW CIGS.
A MODESTLY STRONG NE WIND IS ALSO EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST THIS MORNING. THE WIND HAS BECOME NW AT MOST LOCATIONS WITH
SPEEDS AVERAGING 10-15KT. SEAS REMAIN BELOW 5FT AT 44009...AND GIVEN
THAT THE REMAINING SCA HAS BEEN CANCELLED. A FEW 20KT GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE BAY EARLY THIS MORNING AND 44009 MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH
5FT...BUT THESE WILL BE EXCEPTIONS TO THE RULE AND WILL NOT JUSTIFY
AN SCA.

HIGH PRESSURE STEADILY BUILDS IN FROM THE NW TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A SHALLOW
NORTHERLY CAA SURGE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE BAY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE AN SCA AND THE
FORECAST REMAINS CAPPED AT 15KT. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND NUDGES
NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A 20-25KT NE WIND TO
THE OCEAN/MOUTH OF THE BAY/SOUND...AND 15-20KT ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT POTENTIALLY
REACHING 8-10FT OUT NEAR 20 NM...AND 5-6FT NEARSHORE. SCA CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT IS
TOO EARLY TO RAISE AN SCA FLAG. NE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...AND SEAS WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERIOD OF PERSIST NE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AND
STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND...AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. CURRENT ESTOFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TIDAL DEPARTURES OF
1-1.5FT ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221109
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
709 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TODAY THEN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BACK TO THE REGION FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT HAS MADE ITS WAY OFFSHORE THIS MORNING WITH RAPID
CLEARING IN ITS WAKE. WILL CARRY MINIMAL POPS (15-20%) ACROSS FAR
SERN ZONES UNTIL 16Z AS THE LAST BIT OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT EXITS. COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPR 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT WILL PROMOTE
DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED ACROSS SERN AREAS LATER TONIGHT WHICH WILL HELP CLOUDS
THICKEN OVERNIGHT. MAINLY CLEAR NW AND N. STILL SETTING UP TO BE A
COOL NIGHT WEST...WITH INLAND AREAS (WEST OF I-95) DROPPING TO
BETWEEN 45 AND 50 DEGREES (MID 50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE STILL FAVORING A DRY DAY TUESDAY WITH THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO PA AND NEW ENGLAND...RIDGING DOWN INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...A WEAK CUT-OFF UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS LOW WILL PUSH ADDITIONAL MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY SO THAT THE SKY MAY TURN OUT
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS SERN AREAS...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY NORTH. HIGHS
IN THE LOW 70S (PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES).

MODEL SPREAD STARTS TO WIDEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY WITH REGARDS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OF THE CUT-
OFF LOW. HPC FAVORS THE ECMWF/ECMWF ENS MEAN...AND CANNOT ARGUE
WITH THAT ATTM. THAT SOLUTION FAVORS THE CUT-OFF LOW LINGERING
OVER THE SERN U.S. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH A COASTAL
FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN INTO OUR FAR SERN ZONES LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH AND INCREASE TO SOLID CHC POPS ACROSS NE NC
AND FAR SE VA ON WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
NORTH OF A LINE FROM FVX TO LFI TO CAPE CHARLES. TURNING OUT
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY ALL AREAS BY WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
UPR 40S WEST TO THE LOW 60S AT THE COAST. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE
LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD IS NOW LOOKING SOMEWHAT WETTER WITH
THE 00Z MODEL CYCLE. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE AND BROUGHT A
CHANCE OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH
INTO MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. THE ECMWF LINGERS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN INTO FRIDAY AS WHAT`S LEFT OF THE WEAK
CUT-OFF LOW LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. BY
THE WEEKEND...AM EXPECTING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO
EXPAND SOUTH AND EAST...RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS
IN THE LOW/MID 70S THURSDAY/FRIDAY...WARMING INTO THE UPR 70S TO
AROUND 80 THIS WEEKEND. LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE MAINLY DRY...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF A
BRIEF -SHRA AT ECG AND ORF. A SW WIND OF 8-12KT WILL SHIFT TO NW
THEN N BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING...AND BECOME LOCALLY GUSTY UP
TO 20KT AT SBY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NW TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE FRONT AND ATTEMPTS
TO NUDGE NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL RA ALONG WITH REDUCED VSBY AND LOW CIGS.
A MODESTLY STRONG NE WIND IS ALSO EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST THIS MORNING. THE WIND HAS BECOME NW AT MOST LOCATIONS WITH
SPEEDS AVERAGING 10-15KT. SEAS REMAIN BELOW 5FT AT 44009...AND GIVEN
THAT THE REMAINING SCA HAS BEEN CANCELLED. A FEW 20KT GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE BAY EARLY THIS MORNING AND 44009 MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH
5FT...BUT THESE WILL BE EXCEPTIONS TO THE RULE AND WILL NOT JUSTIFY
AN SCA.

HIGH PRESSURE STEADILY BUILDS IN FROM THE NW TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A SHALLOW
NORTHERLY CAA SURGE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE BAY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE AN SCA AND THE
FORECAST REMAINS CAPPED AT 15KT. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND NUDGES
NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A 20-25KT NE WIND TO
THE OCEAN/MOUTH OF THE BAY/SOUND...AND 15-20KT ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT POTENTIALLY
REACHING 8-10FT OUT NEAR 20 NM...AND 5-6FT NEARSHORE. SCA CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT IS
TOO EARLY TO RAISE AN SCA FLAG. NE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...AND SEAS WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERIOD OF PERSIST NE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AND
STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND...AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. CURRENT ESTOFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TIDAL DEPARTURES OF
1-1.5FT ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221103
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
703 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TODAY THEN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BACK TO THE REGION FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT HAS MADE ITS WAY OFFSHORE THIS MORNING WITH RAPID
CLEARING IN ITS WAKE. WILL CARRY MINIMAL POPS (15-20%) ACROSS FAR
SERN ZONES UNTIL 16Z AS THE LAST BIT OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT EXITS. COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPR 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT WILL PROMOTE
DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED ACROSS SERN AREAS LATER TONIGHT WHICH WILL HELP CLOUDS
THICKEN OVERNIGHT. MAINLY CLEAR NW AND N. STILL SETTING UP TO BE A
COOL NIGHT WEST...WITH INLAND AREAS (WEST OF I-95) DROPPING TO
BETWEEN 45 AND 50 DEGREES (MID 50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE STILL FAVORING A DRY DAY TUESDAY WITH THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO PA AND NEW ENGLAND...RIDGING DOWN INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...A WEAK CUT-OFF UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS LOW WILL PUSH ADDITIONAL MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY SO THAT THE SKY MAY TURN OUT
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS SERN AREAS...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY NORTH. HIGHS
IN THE LOW 70S (PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES).

MODEL SPREAD STARTS TO WIDEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY WITH REGARDS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OF THE CUT-
OFF LOW. HPC FAVORS THE ECMWF/ECMWF ENS MEAN...AND CANNOT ARGUE
WITH THAT ATTM. THAT SOLUTION FAVORS THE CUT-OFF LOW LINGERING
OVER THE SERN U.S. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH A COASTAL
FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN INTO OUR FAR SERN ZONES LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH AND INCREASE TO SOLID CHC POPS ACROSS NE NC
AND FAR SE VA ON WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
NORTH OF A LINE FROM FVX TO LFI TO CAPE CHARLES. TURNING OUT
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY ALL AREAS BY WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
UPR 40S WEST TO THE LOW 60S AT THE COAST. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE
LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD IS NOW LOOKING SOMEWHAT WETTER WITH
THE 00Z MODEL CYCLE. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE AND BROUGHT A
CHANCE OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH
INTO MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. THE ECMWF LINGERS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN INTO FRIDAY AS WHAT`S LEFT OF THE WEAK
CUT-OFF LOW LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. BY
THE WEEKEND...AM EXPECTING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO
EXPAND SOUTH AND EAST...RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS
IN THE LOW/MID 70S THURSDAY/FRIDAY...WARMING INTO THE UPR 70S TO
AROUND 80 THIS WEEKEND. LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE MAINLY DRY...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF A
BRIEF -SHRA AT ECG AND ORF. A SW WIND OF 8-12KT WILL SHIFT TO NW
THEN N BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING...AND BECOME LOCALLY GUSTY UP
TO 20KT AT SBY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NW TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE FRONT AND ATTEMPTS
TO NUDGE NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL RA ALONG WITH REDUCED VSBY AND LOW CIGS.
A MODESTLY STRONG NE WIND IS ALSO EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST THIS MORNING. A SW WIND WILL SHIFT TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT.
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD AVERAGE ~15KT THROUGH THE MORNING...ALTHOUGH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT ARE EXPECTED IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...BUT THE DURATION SHOULD NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AN SCA
OVER ANY OF THE NON-OCEAN ZONES. EARLIER SCAS S OF PARRAMORE ISLAND
HAVE BEEN CANCELLED AS SEAS HAVE FELL BELOW 5FT. AN SCA REMAINS IN
EFFECT N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HOWEVER...SEAS HAVE FELL BELOW 5FT AT BUOY 44009 AND ARE STRUGGLING
TO RECOVER.

HIGH PRESSURE STEADILY BUILDS IN FROM THE NW TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A SHALLOW
NORTHERLY CAA SURGE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE BAY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE AN SCA AND THE
FORECAST REMAINS CAPPED AT 15KT. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND NUDGES
NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A 20-25KT NE WIND TO
THE OCEAN/MOUTH OF THE BAY/SOUND...AND 15-20KT ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT POTENTIALLY
REACHING 8-10FT OUT NEAR 20 NM...AND 5-6FT NEARSHORE. SCA CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT IS
TOO EARLY TO RAISE AN SCA FLAG. NE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...AND SEAS WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERIOD OF PERSIST NE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AND
STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND...AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. CURRENT ESTOFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TIDAL DEPARTURES OF
1-1.5FT ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221103
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
703 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TODAY THEN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BACK TO THE REGION FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT HAS MADE ITS WAY OFFSHORE THIS MORNING WITH RAPID
CLEARING IN ITS WAKE. WILL CARRY MINIMAL POPS (15-20%) ACROSS FAR
SERN ZONES UNTIL 16Z AS THE LAST BIT OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT EXITS. COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPR 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT WILL PROMOTE
DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED ACROSS SERN AREAS LATER TONIGHT WHICH WILL HELP CLOUDS
THICKEN OVERNIGHT. MAINLY CLEAR NW AND N. STILL SETTING UP TO BE A
COOL NIGHT WEST...WITH INLAND AREAS (WEST OF I-95) DROPPING TO
BETWEEN 45 AND 50 DEGREES (MID 50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE STILL FAVORING A DRY DAY TUESDAY WITH THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO PA AND NEW ENGLAND...RIDGING DOWN INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...A WEAK CUT-OFF UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS LOW WILL PUSH ADDITIONAL MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY SO THAT THE SKY MAY TURN OUT
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS SERN AREAS...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY NORTH. HIGHS
IN THE LOW 70S (PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES).

MODEL SPREAD STARTS TO WIDEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY WITH REGARDS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OF THE CUT-
OFF LOW. HPC FAVORS THE ECMWF/ECMWF ENS MEAN...AND CANNOT ARGUE
WITH THAT ATTM. THAT SOLUTION FAVORS THE CUT-OFF LOW LINGERING
OVER THE SERN U.S. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH A COASTAL
FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN INTO OUR FAR SERN ZONES LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH AND INCREASE TO SOLID CHC POPS ACROSS NE NC
AND FAR SE VA ON WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
NORTH OF A LINE FROM FVX TO LFI TO CAPE CHARLES. TURNING OUT
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY ALL AREAS BY WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
UPR 40S WEST TO THE LOW 60S AT THE COAST. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE
LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD IS NOW LOOKING SOMEWHAT WETTER WITH
THE 00Z MODEL CYCLE. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE AND BROUGHT A
CHANCE OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH
INTO MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. THE ECMWF LINGERS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN INTO FRIDAY AS WHAT`S LEFT OF THE WEAK
CUT-OFF LOW LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. BY
THE WEEKEND...AM EXPECTING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO
EXPAND SOUTH AND EAST...RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS
IN THE LOW/MID 70S THURSDAY/FRIDAY...WARMING INTO THE UPR 70S TO
AROUND 80 THIS WEEKEND. LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE MAINLY DRY...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF A
BRIEF -SHRA AT ECG AND ORF. A SW WIND OF 8-12KT WILL SHIFT TO NW
THEN N BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING...AND BECOME LOCALLY GUSTY UP
TO 20KT AT SBY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NW TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE FRONT AND ATTEMPTS
TO NUDGE NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL RA ALONG WITH REDUCED VSBY AND LOW CIGS.
A MODESTLY STRONG NE WIND IS ALSO EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST THIS MORNING. A SW WIND WILL SHIFT TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT.
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD AVERAGE ~15KT THROUGH THE MORNING...ALTHOUGH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT ARE EXPECTED IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...BUT THE DURATION SHOULD NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AN SCA
OVER ANY OF THE NON-OCEAN ZONES. EARLIER SCAS S OF PARRAMORE ISLAND
HAVE BEEN CANCELLED AS SEAS HAVE FELL BELOW 5FT. AN SCA REMAINS IN
EFFECT N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HOWEVER...SEAS HAVE FELL BELOW 5FT AT BUOY 44009 AND ARE STRUGGLING
TO RECOVER.

HIGH PRESSURE STEADILY BUILDS IN FROM THE NW TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A SHALLOW
NORTHERLY CAA SURGE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE BAY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE AN SCA AND THE
FORECAST REMAINS CAPPED AT 15KT. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND NUDGES
NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A 20-25KT NE WIND TO
THE OCEAN/MOUTH OF THE BAY/SOUND...AND 15-20KT ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT POTENTIALLY
REACHING 8-10FT OUT NEAR 20 NM...AND 5-6FT NEARSHORE. SCA CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT IS
TOO EARLY TO RAISE AN SCA FLAG. NE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...AND SEAS WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERIOD OF PERSIST NE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AND
STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND...AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. CURRENT ESTOFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TIDAL DEPARTURES OF
1-1.5FT ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220828
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
428 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY THE RETURN
OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR LATER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BACK TO THE
REGION FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT IS SWEEPING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AND
SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY OFFSHORE BY 12Z. THE ONLY SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
NOTE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS ACROSS COASTAL NE NC AND THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH/MOVE OFFSHORE BEFORE SUNRISE. WILL MAINTAIN
LOW END CHC POPS (30%) THERE THRU 10Z. WILL CARRY MINIMAL POPS
(20%) ACROSS FAR SERN ZONES FROM 10Z-16Z AS THE LAST BIT OF ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT EXITS. OTW...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE THRU THE DAY FROM NW TO SE. COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPR 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT WILL PROMOTE
DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED ACROSS SERN AREAS LATER TONIGHT WHICH WILL HELP CLOUDS
THICKEN OVERNIGHT. MAINLY CLEAR NW AND N. STILL SETTING UP TO BE A
COOL NIGHT WEST...WITH INLAND AREAS (WEST OF I-95) DROPPING TO
BETWEEN 45 AND 50 DEGREES (MID 50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE STILL FAVORING A DRY DAY TUESDAY WITH THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO PA AND NEW ENGLAND...RIDGING DOWN INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...A WEAK CUT-OFF UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS LOW WILL PUSH ADDITIONAL MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY SO THAT THE SKY MAY TURN OUT
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS SERN AREAS...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY NORTH. HIGHS
IN THE LOW 70S (PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES).

MODEL SPREAD STARTS TO WIDEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY WITH REGARDS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OF THE CUT-
OFF LOW. HPC FAVORS THE ECMWF/ECMWF ENS MEAN...AND CANNOT ARGUE
WITH THAT ATTM. THAT SOLUTION FAVORS THE CUT-OFF LOW LINGERING
OVER THE SERN U.S. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH A COASTAL
FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN INTO OUR FAR SERN ZONES LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH AND INCREASE TO SOLID CHC POPS ACROSS NE NC
AND FAR SE VA ON WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
NORTH OF A LINE FROM FVX TO LFI TO CAPE CHARLES. TURNING OUT
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY ALL AREAS BY WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
UPR 40S WEST TO THE LOW 60S AT THE COAST. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE
LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD IS NOW LOOKING SOMEWHAT WETTER WITH
THE 00Z MODEL CYCLE. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE AND BROUGHT A
CHANCE OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH
INTO MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. THE ECMWF LINGERS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN INTO FRIDAY AS WHAT`S LEFT OF THE WEAK
CUT-OFF LOW LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. BY
THE WEEKEND...AM EXPECTING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO
EXPAND SOUTH AND EAST...RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS
IN THE LOW/MID 70S THURSDAY/FRIDAY...WARMING INTO THE UPR 70S TO
AROUND 80 THIS WEEKEND. LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE MAINLY DRY...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF A
BRIEF -SHRA AT ECG AND ORF. A SW WIND OF 8-12KT WILL SHIFT TO NW
THEN N BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING...AND BECOME LOCALLY GUSTY UP
TO 20KT AT SBY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NW TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE FRONT AND ATTEMPTS
TO NUDGE NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL RA ALONG WITH REDUCED VSBY AND LOW CIGS.
A MODESTLY STRONG NE WIND IS ALSO EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST THIS MORNING. A SW WIND WILL SHIFT TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT.
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD AVERAGE ~15KT THROUGH THE MORNING...ALTHOUGH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT ARE EXPECTED IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...BUT THE DURATION SHOULD NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AN SCA
OVER ANY OF THE NON-OCEAN ZONES. EARLIER SCAS S OF PARRAMORE ISLAND
HAVE BEEN CANCELLED AS SEAS HAVE FELL BELOW 5FT. AN SCA REMAINS IN
EFFECT N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HOWEVER...SEAS HAVE FELL BELOW 5FT AT BUOY 44009 AND ARE STRUGGLING
TO RECOVER.

HIGH PRESSURE STEADILY BUILDS IN FROM THE NW TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A SHALLOW
NORTHERLY CAA SURGE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE BAY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE AN SCA AND THE
FORECAST REMAINS CAPPED AT 15KT. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND NUDGES
NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A 20-25KT NE WIND TO
THE OCEAN/MOUTH OF THE BAY/SOUND...AND 15-20KT ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT POTENTIALLY
REACHING 8-10FT OUT NEAR 20 NM...AND 5-6FT NEARSHORE. SCA CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT IS
TOO EARLY TO RAISE AN SCA FLAG. NE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...AND SEAS WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERIOD OF PERSIST NE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AND
STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND...AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. CURRENT ESTOFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TIDAL DEPARTURES OF
1-1.5FT ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220828
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
428 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY THE RETURN
OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR LATER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BACK TO THE
REGION FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT IS SWEEPING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AND
SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY OFFSHORE BY 12Z. THE ONLY SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
NOTE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS ACROSS COASTAL NE NC AND THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH/MOVE OFFSHORE BEFORE SUNRISE. WILL MAINTAIN
LOW END CHC POPS (30%) THERE THRU 10Z. WILL CARRY MINIMAL POPS
(20%) ACROSS FAR SERN ZONES FROM 10Z-16Z AS THE LAST BIT OF ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT EXITS. OTW...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE THRU THE DAY FROM NW TO SE. COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPR 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT WILL PROMOTE
DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED ACROSS SERN AREAS LATER TONIGHT WHICH WILL HELP CLOUDS
THICKEN OVERNIGHT. MAINLY CLEAR NW AND N. STILL SETTING UP TO BE A
COOL NIGHT WEST...WITH INLAND AREAS (WEST OF I-95) DROPPING TO
BETWEEN 45 AND 50 DEGREES (MID 50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE STILL FAVORING A DRY DAY TUESDAY WITH THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO PA AND NEW ENGLAND...RIDGING DOWN INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...A WEAK CUT-OFF UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS LOW WILL PUSH ADDITIONAL MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY SO THAT THE SKY MAY TURN OUT
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS SERN AREAS...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY NORTH. HIGHS
IN THE LOW 70S (PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES).

MODEL SPREAD STARTS TO WIDEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY WITH REGARDS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OF THE CUT-
OFF LOW. HPC FAVORS THE ECMWF/ECMWF ENS MEAN...AND CANNOT ARGUE
WITH THAT ATTM. THAT SOLUTION FAVORS THE CUT-OFF LOW LINGERING
OVER THE SERN U.S. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH A COASTAL
FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN INTO OUR FAR SERN ZONES LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH AND INCREASE TO SOLID CHC POPS ACROSS NE NC
AND FAR SE VA ON WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
NORTH OF A LINE FROM FVX TO LFI TO CAPE CHARLES. TURNING OUT
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY ALL AREAS BY WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
UPR 40S WEST TO THE LOW 60S AT THE COAST. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE
LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD IS NOW LOOKING SOMEWHAT WETTER WITH
THE 00Z MODEL CYCLE. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE AND BROUGHT A
CHANCE OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH
INTO MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. THE ECMWF LINGERS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN INTO FRIDAY AS WHAT`S LEFT OF THE WEAK
CUT-OFF LOW LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. BY
THE WEEKEND...AM EXPECTING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO
EXPAND SOUTH AND EAST...RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS
IN THE LOW/MID 70S THURSDAY/FRIDAY...WARMING INTO THE UPR 70S TO
AROUND 80 THIS WEEKEND. LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE MAINLY DRY...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF A
BRIEF -SHRA AT ECG AND ORF. A SW WIND OF 8-12KT WILL SHIFT TO NW
THEN N BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING...AND BECOME LOCALLY GUSTY UP
TO 20KT AT SBY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NW TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE FRONT AND ATTEMPTS
TO NUDGE NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL RA ALONG WITH REDUCED VSBY AND LOW CIGS.
A MODESTLY STRONG NE WIND IS ALSO EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST THIS MORNING. A SW WIND WILL SHIFT TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT.
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD AVERAGE ~15KT THROUGH THE MORNING...ALTHOUGH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT ARE EXPECTED IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...BUT THE DURATION SHOULD NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AN SCA
OVER ANY OF THE NON-OCEAN ZONES. EARLIER SCAS S OF PARRAMORE ISLAND
HAVE BEEN CANCELLED AS SEAS HAVE FELL BELOW 5FT. AN SCA REMAINS IN
EFFECT N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HOWEVER...SEAS HAVE FELL BELOW 5FT AT BUOY 44009 AND ARE STRUGGLING
TO RECOVER.

HIGH PRESSURE STEADILY BUILDS IN FROM THE NW TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A SHALLOW
NORTHERLY CAA SURGE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE BAY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE AN SCA AND THE
FORECAST REMAINS CAPPED AT 15KT. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND NUDGES
NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A 20-25KT NE WIND TO
THE OCEAN/MOUTH OF THE BAY/SOUND...AND 15-20KT ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT POTENTIALLY
REACHING 8-10FT OUT NEAR 20 NM...AND 5-6FT NEARSHORE. SCA CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT IS
TOO EARLY TO RAISE AN SCA FLAG. NE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...AND SEAS WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERIOD OF PERSIST NE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AND
STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND...AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. CURRENT ESTOFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TIDAL DEPARTURES OF
1-1.5FT ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220828
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
428 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY THE RETURN
OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR LATER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BACK TO THE
REGION FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT IS SWEEPING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AND
SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY OFFSHORE BY 12Z. THE ONLY SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
NOTE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS ACROSS COASTAL NE NC AND THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH/MOVE OFFSHORE BEFORE SUNRISE. WILL MAINTAIN
LOW END CHC POPS (30%) THERE THRU 10Z. WILL CARRY MINIMAL POPS
(20%) ACROSS FAR SERN ZONES FROM 10Z-16Z AS THE LAST BIT OF ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT EXITS. OTW...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE THRU THE DAY FROM NW TO SE. COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPR 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT WILL PROMOTE
DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED ACROSS SERN AREAS LATER TONIGHT WHICH WILL HELP CLOUDS
THICKEN OVERNIGHT. MAINLY CLEAR NW AND N. STILL SETTING UP TO BE A
COOL NIGHT WEST...WITH INLAND AREAS (WEST OF I-95) DROPPING TO
BETWEEN 45 AND 50 DEGREES (MID 50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE STILL FAVORING A DRY DAY TUESDAY WITH THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO PA AND NEW ENGLAND...RIDGING DOWN INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...A WEAK CUT-OFF UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS LOW WILL PUSH ADDITIONAL MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY SO THAT THE SKY MAY TURN OUT
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS SERN AREAS...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY NORTH. HIGHS
IN THE LOW 70S (PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES).

MODEL SPREAD STARTS TO WIDEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY WITH REGARDS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OF THE CUT-
OFF LOW. HPC FAVORS THE ECMWF/ECMWF ENS MEAN...AND CANNOT ARGUE
WITH THAT ATTM. THAT SOLUTION FAVORS THE CUT-OFF LOW LINGERING
OVER THE SERN U.S. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH A COASTAL
FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN INTO OUR FAR SERN ZONES LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH AND INCREASE TO SOLID CHC POPS ACROSS NE NC
AND FAR SE VA ON WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
NORTH OF A LINE FROM FVX TO LFI TO CAPE CHARLES. TURNING OUT
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY ALL AREAS BY WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
UPR 40S WEST TO THE LOW 60S AT THE COAST. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE
LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD IS NOW LOOKING SOMEWHAT WETTER WITH
THE 00Z MODEL CYCLE. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE AND BROUGHT A
CHANCE OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH
INTO MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. THE ECMWF LINGERS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN INTO FRIDAY AS WHAT`S LEFT OF THE WEAK
CUT-OFF LOW LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. BY
THE WEEKEND...AM EXPECTING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO
EXPAND SOUTH AND EAST...RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS
IN THE LOW/MID 70S THURSDAY/FRIDAY...WARMING INTO THE UPR 70S TO
AROUND 80 THIS WEEKEND. LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE MAINLY DRY...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF A
BRIEF -SHRA AT ECG AND ORF. A SW WIND OF 8-12KT WILL SHIFT TO NW
THEN N BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING...AND BECOME LOCALLY GUSTY UP
TO 20KT AT SBY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NW TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE FRONT AND ATTEMPTS
TO NUDGE NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL RA ALONG WITH REDUCED VSBY AND LOW CIGS.
A MODESTLY STRONG NE WIND IS ALSO EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST THIS MORNING. A SW WIND WILL SHIFT TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT.
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD AVERAGE ~15KT THROUGH THE MORNING...ALTHOUGH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT ARE EXPECTED IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...BUT THE DURATION SHOULD NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AN SCA
OVER ANY OF THE NON-OCEAN ZONES. EARLIER SCAS S OF PARRAMORE ISLAND
HAVE BEEN CANCELLED AS SEAS HAVE FELL BELOW 5FT. AN SCA REMAINS IN
EFFECT N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HOWEVER...SEAS HAVE FELL BELOW 5FT AT BUOY 44009 AND ARE STRUGGLING
TO RECOVER.

HIGH PRESSURE STEADILY BUILDS IN FROM THE NW TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A SHALLOW
NORTHERLY CAA SURGE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE BAY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE AN SCA AND THE
FORECAST REMAINS CAPPED AT 15KT. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND NUDGES
NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A 20-25KT NE WIND TO
THE OCEAN/MOUTH OF THE BAY/SOUND...AND 15-20KT ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT POTENTIALLY
REACHING 8-10FT OUT NEAR 20 NM...AND 5-6FT NEARSHORE. SCA CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT IS
TOO EARLY TO RAISE AN SCA FLAG. NE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...AND SEAS WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERIOD OF PERSIST NE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AND
STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND...AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. CURRENT ESTOFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TIDAL DEPARTURES OF
1-1.5FT ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220828
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
428 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY THE RETURN
OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR LATER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BACK TO THE
REGION FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT IS SWEEPING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AND
SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY OFFSHORE BY 12Z. THE ONLY SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
NOTE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS ACROSS COASTAL NE NC AND THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH/MOVE OFFSHORE BEFORE SUNRISE. WILL MAINTAIN
LOW END CHC POPS (30%) THERE THRU 10Z. WILL CARRY MINIMAL POPS
(20%) ACROSS FAR SERN ZONES FROM 10Z-16Z AS THE LAST BIT OF ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT EXITS. OTW...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE THRU THE DAY FROM NW TO SE. COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPR 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT WILL PROMOTE
DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED ACROSS SERN AREAS LATER TONIGHT WHICH WILL HELP CLOUDS
THICKEN OVERNIGHT. MAINLY CLEAR NW AND N. STILL SETTING UP TO BE A
COOL NIGHT WEST...WITH INLAND AREAS (WEST OF I-95) DROPPING TO
BETWEEN 45 AND 50 DEGREES (MID 50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE STILL FAVORING A DRY DAY TUESDAY WITH THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO PA AND NEW ENGLAND...RIDGING DOWN INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...A WEAK CUT-OFF UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS LOW WILL PUSH ADDITIONAL MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY SO THAT THE SKY MAY TURN OUT
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS SERN AREAS...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY NORTH. HIGHS
IN THE LOW 70S (PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES).

MODEL SPREAD STARTS TO WIDEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY WITH REGARDS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OF THE CUT-
OFF LOW. HPC FAVORS THE ECMWF/ECMWF ENS MEAN...AND CANNOT ARGUE
WITH THAT ATTM. THAT SOLUTION FAVORS THE CUT-OFF LOW LINGERING
OVER THE SERN U.S. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH A COASTAL
FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN INTO OUR FAR SERN ZONES LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH AND INCREASE TO SOLID CHC POPS ACROSS NE NC
AND FAR SE VA ON WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
NORTH OF A LINE FROM FVX TO LFI TO CAPE CHARLES. TURNING OUT
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY ALL AREAS BY WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
UPR 40S WEST TO THE LOW 60S AT THE COAST. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE
LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD IS NOW LOOKING SOMEWHAT WETTER WITH
THE 00Z MODEL CYCLE. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE AND BROUGHT A
CHANCE OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH
INTO MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. THE ECMWF LINGERS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN INTO FRIDAY AS WHAT`S LEFT OF THE WEAK
CUT-OFF LOW LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. BY
THE WEEKEND...AM EXPECTING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO
EXPAND SOUTH AND EAST...RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS
IN THE LOW/MID 70S THURSDAY/FRIDAY...WARMING INTO THE UPR 70S TO
AROUND 80 THIS WEEKEND. LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE MAINLY DRY...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF A
BRIEF -SHRA AT ECG AND ORF. A SW WIND OF 8-12KT WILL SHIFT TO NW
THEN N BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING...AND BECOME LOCALLY GUSTY UP
TO 20KT AT SBY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NW TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE FRONT AND ATTEMPTS
TO NUDGE NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL RA ALONG WITH REDUCED VSBY AND LOW CIGS.
A MODESTLY STRONG NE WIND IS ALSO EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST THIS MORNING. A SW WIND WILL SHIFT TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT.
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD AVERAGE ~15KT THROUGH THE MORNING...ALTHOUGH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT ARE EXPECTED IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...BUT THE DURATION SHOULD NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AN SCA
OVER ANY OF THE NON-OCEAN ZONES. EARLIER SCAS S OF PARRAMORE ISLAND
HAVE BEEN CANCELLED AS SEAS HAVE FELL BELOW 5FT. AN SCA REMAINS IN
EFFECT N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HOWEVER...SEAS HAVE FELL BELOW 5FT AT BUOY 44009 AND ARE STRUGGLING
TO RECOVER.

HIGH PRESSURE STEADILY BUILDS IN FROM THE NW TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A SHALLOW
NORTHERLY CAA SURGE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE BAY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE AN SCA AND THE
FORECAST REMAINS CAPPED AT 15KT. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND NUDGES
NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A 20-25KT NE WIND TO
THE OCEAN/MOUTH OF THE BAY/SOUND...AND 15-20KT ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT POTENTIALLY
REACHING 8-10FT OUT NEAR 20 NM...AND 5-6FT NEARSHORE. SCA CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT IS
TOO EARLY TO RAISE AN SCA FLAG. NE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...AND SEAS WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERIOD OF PERSIST NE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AND
STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND...AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. CURRENT ESTOFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TIDAL DEPARTURES OF
1-1.5FT ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ







000
FXUS61 KRNK 220814
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
414 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
MOVE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT AND WILL COVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...

DEEP UPPER TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING.
SHORT WAVE OVER MISSOURI REACHES THE BASE OF THE TROF AND CLOSES OFF
AN UPPER LOW NEAR SOUTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. MODELS ALSO SHOWING COLDER
500 MB TEMPERATURES OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

FRONT HAS CLEARED FORECAST AREA. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
TODAY AND TONIGHT AND WILL REACH +8 TO +10 BY 12Z/8AM TUESDAY. AN
EVEN BIGGER CHANGE IN THE DEW POINTS WAS ALREADY UNDERWAY. SURFACE
DEW POINTS HAVE LOWERED INTO THE UPPER 40S IN SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA. BY THIS AFTERNOON PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE LESS
THAN 0.50 INCHES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THE WAS CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS MORNING...BUT AS
THE HIGH GETS CLOSER...WINDS WILL DIMINISH. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE THIS
EVENING. WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND THE LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT THE COOLER AIR OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER AREA
RIVERS AND LAKES WILL RESULT IN FOG FORMATION.

BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWED A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
FROM SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA INTO THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS THIS
MORNING. WILL KEEP A SIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA THROUGH NOON. AS THE WINDS AND UPSLOPE FORCING
DIMINISHES...THE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE. THIS MAY TAKE MOST OF THE
DAY IN THE FAR NORTHWEST PART OF COUNTY WARNING AREA.

STAYED BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS BASED ON IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS DIPPING INTO THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT MONDAY...

A STRONG DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE CENTERED OVER NEW
ENGLAND...WEDGING DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR THE
MOST PART...THIS WEDGE WILL KEEP THE AREA COOL AND DRY. MODELS ARE
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY. THE STRENGTH
OF THIS LOW VARIES BETWEEN MODELS. IN RESPONSE TO THIS UPPER LOW...A
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE NAM
KEEPS THIS DISTURBANCE AND ITS PRECIPITATION ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLOWLY PUSHES IT INLAND TOWARDS THE
THE NC/VA PIEDMONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE
PROGRESSIVE...ADVANCING THIS PRECIPITATION NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHT RAIN ENTERS THE PIEDMONT
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE ECM IS SLOWER AND TRACKS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
NORTHWARD OVER THE APPALACHIANS. THIS SCENARIO WOULD BRING
PRECIPITATION FURTHER WESTWARD/INLAND THAN THE GFS/NAM FOR WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ECM HAS LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE BLUE
RIDGE WITH STRONGER CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL PIEDMONT OF VA/NC
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANY ONE OR A COMBINATION OF THE MODELS COULD BE
RIGHT. IT DOES APPEAR THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL STRENGTHEN THE
WEDGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRONGER WEDGE WOULD SUPPORT LIGHTER
PRECIPITATION AND MORE SO TOWARDS THE PIEDMONT. SINCE CONFIDENCE IS
LOW FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR RAIN ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

THE WEDGE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN NORMAL ON TUESDAY. KEPT
TUESDAY TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE SINCE THE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING
A MOSTLY CLEAR DAY AND A DRY EASTERLY FLOW. DESPITE THE STRENGTH OF
THE WEDGE ON WEDNESDAY...EASTERLY FLOW AND A FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC
WOULD INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR STRATUS CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN
TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE COOLEST GUIDANCE (NAM). IF THE CHANCES FOR
RAIN LOOKS MORE LIKELY...WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES ALONG AND EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE WILL BE LUCKY TO HIT THE UPPER 60S. THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE HAS UNIFORM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NE STATES ON THURSDAY WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT WESTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO
A PROLONGED EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

MODELS ARE STARTING TO AGREE ON A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
FORMING ACROSS THE SE STATES LATE IN THE WEEK...HOWEVER THERE IS
STILL MAJOR DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT WHICH WILL AFFECT HOW MUCH
MOISTURE CAN GET PULLED UP INTO THE REGION. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE
MUCH DRIER THAN THE ECMWF. DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EASTWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM EDT MONDAY...

COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM VERMONT TO EASTERN VIRGINIA TO NORTHERN
LOUISIANA AT 05Z/1AM. SURFACE WIND WERE FROM THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS IN THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES
EARLY THIS MORNING. ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF WHEN
KLWB AND KBLF WILL DROP TO MVFR. BCB WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF VFR
TO MVFR CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING.

KLWB...AND ESPECIALLY KBLF WILL SEE THE MVFR CIGS HANG IN MUCH OF
THE DAY WITH UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TO THE EAST. BCB SHOULD SEE CIGS IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE 15Z/11AM-
17Z/1PM TIME FRAME. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND THE NORTHWEST
UPSLOPE FLOW WEAKENS...THE CLOUDS WILL ERODE. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT KLWB
AND KBLF WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 00Z.

EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR IN THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. RIVER VALLEY FOG
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AT NIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH AND COOL AIR
MASS DECOUPLES. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE GULF COAST
MAY BRING IFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...AMS/RAB



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220810
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
410 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY THE RETURN
OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR LATER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BACK TO THE
REGION FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT IS SWEEPING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AND
SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY OFFSHORE BY 12Z. THE ONLY SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
NOTE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS ACROSS COASTAL NE NC AND THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH/MOVE OFFSHORE BEFORE SUNRISE. WILL MAINTAIN
LOW END CHC POPS (30%) THERE THRU 10Z. WILL CARRY MINIMAL POPS
(20%) ACROSS FAR SERN ZONES FROM 10Z-16Z AS THE LAST BIT OF ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT EXITS. OTW...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE THRU THE DAY FROM NW TO SE. COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPR 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT WILL PROMOTE
DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED ACROSS SERN AREAS LATER TONIGHT WHICH WILL HELP CLOUDS
THICKEN OVERNIGHT. MAINLY CLEAR NW AND N. STILL SETTING UP TO BE A
COOL NIGHT WEST...WITH INLAND AREAS (WEST OF I-95) DROPPING TO
BETWEEN 45 AND 50 DEGREES (MID 50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE STILL FAVORING A DRY DAY TUESDAY WITH THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO PA AND NEW ENGLAND...RIDGING DOWN INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...A WEAK CUT-OFF UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS LOW WILL PUSH ADDITIONAL MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY SO THAT THE SKY MAY TURN OUT
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS SERN AREAS...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY NORTH. HIGHS
IN THE LOW 70S (PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES).

MODEL SPREAD STARTS TO WIDEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY WITH REGARDS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OF THE CUT-
OFF LOW. HPC FAVORS THE ECMWF/ECMWF ENS MEAN...AND CANNOT ARGUE
WITH THAT ATTM. THAT SOLUTION FAVORS THE CUT-OFF LOW LINGERING
OVER THE SERN U.S. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH A COASTAL
FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN INTO OUR FAR SERN ZONES LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH AND INCREASE TO SOLID CHC POPS ACROSS NE NC
AND FAR SE VA ON WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
NORTH OF A LINE FROM FVX TO LFI TO CAPE CHARLES. TURNING OUT
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY ALL AREAS BY WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
UPR 40S WEST TO THE LOW 60S AT THE COAST. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE
LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND
SLGTLY BLO NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
STAGNANT THRU THE PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY
OF THE OH VALLEY/NE STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH
AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER
TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL
STICK TO 20% POPS FOR NOW. MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WITH 12Z GFS KEEPING ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE 12Z
ECMWF BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED NGT. HI TEMPS WILL
RANGE THRU THE 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 50S NW TO MID
60S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE MAINLY DRY...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF A
BRIEF -SHRA AT ECG AND ORF. A SW WIND OF 8-12KT WILL SHIFT TO NW
THEN N BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING...AND BECOME LOCALLY GUSTY UP
TO 20KT AT SBY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NW TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE FRONT AND ATTEMPTS
TO NUDGE NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL RA ALONG WITH REDUCED VSBY AND LOW CIGS.
A MODESTLY STRONG NE WIND IS ALSO EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST THIS MORNING. A SW WIND WILL SHIFT TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT.
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD AVERAGE ~15KT THROUGH THE MORNING...ALTHOUGH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT ARE EXPECTED IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...BUT THE DURATION SHOULD NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AN SCA
OVER ANY OF THE NON-OCEAN ZONES. EARLIER SCAS S OF PARRAMORE ISLAND
HAVE BEEN CANCELLED AS SEAS HAVE FELL BELOW 5FT. AN SCA REMAINS IN
EFFECT N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HOWEVER...SEAS HAVE FELL BELOW 5FT AT BUOY 44009 AND ARE STRUGGLING
TO RECOVER.

HIGH PRESSURE STEADILY BUILDS IN FROM THE NW TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A SHALLOW
NORTHERLY CAA SURGE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE BAY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE AN SCA AND THE
FORECAST REMAINS CAPPED AT 15KT. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND NUDGES
NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A 20-25KT NE WIND TO
THE OCEAN/MOUTH OF THE BAY/SOUND...AND 15-20KT ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT POTENTIALLY
REACHING 8-10FT OUT NEAR 20 NM...AND 5-6FT NEARSHORE. SCA CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT IS
TOO EARLY TO RAISE AN SCA FLAG. NE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...AND SEAS WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERIOD OF PERSIST NE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AND
STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND...AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. CURRENT ESTOFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TIDAL DEPARTURES OF
1-1.5FT ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220810
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
410 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY THE RETURN
OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR LATER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BACK TO THE
REGION FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT IS SWEEPING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AND
SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY OFFSHORE BY 12Z. THE ONLY SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
NOTE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS ACROSS COASTAL NE NC AND THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH/MOVE OFFSHORE BEFORE SUNRISE. WILL MAINTAIN
LOW END CHC POPS (30%) THERE THRU 10Z. WILL CARRY MINIMAL POPS
(20%) ACROSS FAR SERN ZONES FROM 10Z-16Z AS THE LAST BIT OF ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT EXITS. OTW...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE THRU THE DAY FROM NW TO SE. COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPR 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT WILL PROMOTE
DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED ACROSS SERN AREAS LATER TONIGHT WHICH WILL HELP CLOUDS
THICKEN OVERNIGHT. MAINLY CLEAR NW AND N. STILL SETTING UP TO BE A
COOL NIGHT WEST...WITH INLAND AREAS (WEST OF I-95) DROPPING TO
BETWEEN 45 AND 50 DEGREES (MID 50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE STILL FAVORING A DRY DAY TUESDAY WITH THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO PA AND NEW ENGLAND...RIDGING DOWN INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...A WEAK CUT-OFF UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS LOW WILL PUSH ADDITIONAL MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY SO THAT THE SKY MAY TURN OUT
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS SERN AREAS...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY NORTH. HIGHS
IN THE LOW 70S (PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES).

MODEL SPREAD STARTS TO WIDEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY WITH REGARDS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OF THE CUT-
OFF LOW. HPC FAVORS THE ECMWF/ECMWF ENS MEAN...AND CANNOT ARGUE
WITH THAT ATTM. THAT SOLUTION FAVORS THE CUT-OFF LOW LINGERING
OVER THE SERN U.S. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH A COASTAL
FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN INTO OUR FAR SERN ZONES LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH AND INCREASE TO SOLID CHC POPS ACROSS NE NC
AND FAR SE VA ON WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
NORTH OF A LINE FROM FVX TO LFI TO CAPE CHARLES. TURNING OUT
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY ALL AREAS BY WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
UPR 40S WEST TO THE LOW 60S AT THE COAST. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE
LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND
SLGTLY BLO NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
STAGNANT THRU THE PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY
OF THE OH VALLEY/NE STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH
AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER
TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL
STICK TO 20% POPS FOR NOW. MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WITH 12Z GFS KEEPING ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE 12Z
ECMWF BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED NGT. HI TEMPS WILL
RANGE THRU THE 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 50S NW TO MID
60S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE MAINLY DRY...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF A
BRIEF -SHRA AT ECG AND ORF. A SW WIND OF 8-12KT WILL SHIFT TO NW
THEN N BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING...AND BECOME LOCALLY GUSTY UP
TO 20KT AT SBY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NW TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE FRONT AND ATTEMPTS
TO NUDGE NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL RA ALONG WITH REDUCED VSBY AND LOW CIGS.
A MODESTLY STRONG NE WIND IS ALSO EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST THIS MORNING. A SW WIND WILL SHIFT TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT.
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD AVERAGE ~15KT THROUGH THE MORNING...ALTHOUGH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT ARE EXPECTED IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...BUT THE DURATION SHOULD NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AN SCA
OVER ANY OF THE NON-OCEAN ZONES. EARLIER SCAS S OF PARRAMORE ISLAND
HAVE BEEN CANCELLED AS SEAS HAVE FELL BELOW 5FT. AN SCA REMAINS IN
EFFECT N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HOWEVER...SEAS HAVE FELL BELOW 5FT AT BUOY 44009 AND ARE STRUGGLING
TO RECOVER.

HIGH PRESSURE STEADILY BUILDS IN FROM THE NW TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A SHALLOW
NORTHERLY CAA SURGE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE BAY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE AN SCA AND THE
FORECAST REMAINS CAPPED AT 15KT. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND NUDGES
NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A 20-25KT NE WIND TO
THE OCEAN/MOUTH OF THE BAY/SOUND...AND 15-20KT ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT POTENTIALLY
REACHING 8-10FT OUT NEAR 20 NM...AND 5-6FT NEARSHORE. SCA CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT IS
TOO EARLY TO RAISE AN SCA FLAG. NE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...AND SEAS WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERIOD OF PERSIST NE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AND
STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND...AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. CURRENT ESTOFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TIDAL DEPARTURES OF
1-1.5FT ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220810
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
410 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY THE RETURN
OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR LATER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BACK TO THE
REGION FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT IS SWEEPING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AND
SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY OFFSHORE BY 12Z. THE ONLY SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
NOTE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS ACROSS COASTAL NE NC AND THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH/MOVE OFFSHORE BEFORE SUNRISE. WILL MAINTAIN
LOW END CHC POPS (30%) THERE THRU 10Z. WILL CARRY MINIMAL POPS
(20%) ACROSS FAR SERN ZONES FROM 10Z-16Z AS THE LAST BIT OF ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT EXITS. OTW...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE THRU THE DAY FROM NW TO SE. COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPR 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT WILL PROMOTE
DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED ACROSS SERN AREAS LATER TONIGHT WHICH WILL HELP CLOUDS
THICKEN OVERNIGHT. MAINLY CLEAR NW AND N. STILL SETTING UP TO BE A
COOL NIGHT WEST...WITH INLAND AREAS (WEST OF I-95) DROPPING TO
BETWEEN 45 AND 50 DEGREES (MID 50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE STILL FAVORING A DRY DAY TUESDAY WITH THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO PA AND NEW ENGLAND...RIDGING DOWN INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...A WEAK CUT-OFF UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS LOW WILL PUSH ADDITIONAL MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY SO THAT THE SKY MAY TURN OUT
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS SERN AREAS...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY NORTH. HIGHS
IN THE LOW 70S (PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES).

MODEL SPREAD STARTS TO WIDEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY WITH REGARDS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OF THE CUT-
OFF LOW. HPC FAVORS THE ECMWF/ECMWF ENS MEAN...AND CANNOT ARGUE
WITH THAT ATTM. THAT SOLUTION FAVORS THE CUT-OFF LOW LINGERING
OVER THE SERN U.S. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH A COASTAL
FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN INTO OUR FAR SERN ZONES LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH AND INCREASE TO SOLID CHC POPS ACROSS NE NC
AND FAR SE VA ON WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
NORTH OF A LINE FROM FVX TO LFI TO CAPE CHARLES. TURNING OUT
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY ALL AREAS BY WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
UPR 40S WEST TO THE LOW 60S AT THE COAST. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE
LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND
SLGTLY BLO NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
STAGNANT THRU THE PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY
OF THE OH VALLEY/NE STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH
AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER
TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL
STICK TO 20% POPS FOR NOW. MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WITH 12Z GFS KEEPING ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE 12Z
ECMWF BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED NGT. HI TEMPS WILL
RANGE THRU THE 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 50S NW TO MID
60S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE MAINLY DRY...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF A
BRIEF -SHRA AT ECG AND ORF. A SW WIND OF 8-12KT WILL SHIFT TO NW
THEN N BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING...AND BECOME LOCALLY GUSTY UP
TO 20KT AT SBY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NW TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE FRONT AND ATTEMPTS
TO NUDGE NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL RA ALONG WITH REDUCED VSBY AND LOW CIGS.
A MODESTLY STRONG NE WIND IS ALSO EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST THIS MORNING. A SW WIND WILL SHIFT TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT.
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD AVERAGE ~15KT THROUGH THE MORNING...ALTHOUGH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT ARE EXPECTED IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...BUT THE DURATION SHOULD NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AN SCA
OVER ANY OF THE NON-OCEAN ZONES. EARLIER SCAS S OF PARRAMORE ISLAND
HAVE BEEN CANCELLED AS SEAS HAVE FELL BELOW 5FT. AN SCA REMAINS IN
EFFECT N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HOWEVER...SEAS HAVE FELL BELOW 5FT AT BUOY 44009 AND ARE STRUGGLING
TO RECOVER.

HIGH PRESSURE STEADILY BUILDS IN FROM THE NW TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A SHALLOW
NORTHERLY CAA SURGE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE BAY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE AN SCA AND THE
FORECAST REMAINS CAPPED AT 15KT. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND NUDGES
NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A 20-25KT NE WIND TO
THE OCEAN/MOUTH OF THE BAY/SOUND...AND 15-20KT ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT POTENTIALLY
REACHING 8-10FT OUT NEAR 20 NM...AND 5-6FT NEARSHORE. SCA CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT IS
TOO EARLY TO RAISE AN SCA FLAG. NE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...AND SEAS WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERIOD OF PERSIST NE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AND
STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND...AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. CURRENT ESTOFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TIDAL DEPARTURES OF
1-1.5FT ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220810
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
410 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY THE RETURN
OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR LATER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BACK TO THE
REGION FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT IS SWEEPING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AND
SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY OFFSHORE BY 12Z. THE ONLY SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
NOTE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS ACROSS COASTAL NE NC AND THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH/MOVE OFFSHORE BEFORE SUNRISE. WILL MAINTAIN
LOW END CHC POPS (30%) THERE THRU 10Z. WILL CARRY MINIMAL POPS
(20%) ACROSS FAR SERN ZONES FROM 10Z-16Z AS THE LAST BIT OF ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT EXITS. OTW...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE THRU THE DAY FROM NW TO SE. COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPR 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT WILL PROMOTE
DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED ACROSS SERN AREAS LATER TONIGHT WHICH WILL HELP CLOUDS
THICKEN OVERNIGHT. MAINLY CLEAR NW AND N. STILL SETTING UP TO BE A
COOL NIGHT WEST...WITH INLAND AREAS (WEST OF I-95) DROPPING TO
BETWEEN 45 AND 50 DEGREES (MID 50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE STILL FAVORING A DRY DAY TUESDAY WITH THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO PA AND NEW ENGLAND...RIDGING DOWN INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...A WEAK CUT-OFF UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS LOW WILL PUSH ADDITIONAL MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY SO THAT THE SKY MAY TURN OUT
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS SERN AREAS...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY NORTH. HIGHS
IN THE LOW 70S (PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES).

MODEL SPREAD STARTS TO WIDEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY WITH REGARDS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OF THE CUT-
OFF LOW. HPC FAVORS THE ECMWF/ECMWF ENS MEAN...AND CANNOT ARGUE
WITH THAT ATTM. THAT SOLUTION FAVORS THE CUT-OFF LOW LINGERING
OVER THE SERN U.S. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH A COASTAL
FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN INTO OUR FAR SERN ZONES LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH AND INCREASE TO SOLID CHC POPS ACROSS NE NC
AND FAR SE VA ON WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
NORTH OF A LINE FROM FVX TO LFI TO CAPE CHARLES. TURNING OUT
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY ALL AREAS BY WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
UPR 40S WEST TO THE LOW 60S AT THE COAST. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE
LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND
SLGTLY BLO NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
STAGNANT THRU THE PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY
OF THE OH VALLEY/NE STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH
AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER
TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL
STICK TO 20% POPS FOR NOW. MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WITH 12Z GFS KEEPING ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE 12Z
ECMWF BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED NGT. HI TEMPS WILL
RANGE THRU THE 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 50S NW TO MID
60S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE MAINLY DRY...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF A
BRIEF -SHRA AT ECG AND ORF. A SW WIND OF 8-12KT WILL SHIFT TO NW
THEN N BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING...AND BECOME LOCALLY GUSTY UP
TO 20KT AT SBY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NW TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE FRONT AND ATTEMPTS
TO NUDGE NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL RA ALONG WITH REDUCED VSBY AND LOW CIGS.
A MODESTLY STRONG NE WIND IS ALSO EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST THIS MORNING. A SW WIND WILL SHIFT TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT.
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD AVERAGE ~15KT THROUGH THE MORNING...ALTHOUGH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT ARE EXPECTED IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...BUT THE DURATION SHOULD NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AN SCA
OVER ANY OF THE NON-OCEAN ZONES. EARLIER SCAS S OF PARRAMORE ISLAND
HAVE BEEN CANCELLED AS SEAS HAVE FELL BELOW 5FT. AN SCA REMAINS IN
EFFECT N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HOWEVER...SEAS HAVE FELL BELOW 5FT AT BUOY 44009 AND ARE STRUGGLING
TO RECOVER.

HIGH PRESSURE STEADILY BUILDS IN FROM THE NW TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A SHALLOW
NORTHERLY CAA SURGE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE BAY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE AN SCA AND THE
FORECAST REMAINS CAPPED AT 15KT. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND NUDGES
NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A 20-25KT NE WIND TO
THE OCEAN/MOUTH OF THE BAY/SOUND...AND 15-20KT ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT POTENTIALLY
REACHING 8-10FT OUT NEAR 20 NM...AND 5-6FT NEARSHORE. SCA CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT IS
TOO EARLY TO RAISE AN SCA FLAG. NE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...AND SEAS WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERIOD OF PERSIST NE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AND
STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND...AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. CURRENT ESTOFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TIDAL DEPARTURES OF
1-1.5FT ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ






  [top]

000
FXUS61 KLWX 220759
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
359 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS WEEK. A CUT OFF
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE NEAR THE SOUTHERN
ATLANTIC COAST INTO MID-WEEK...POSSIBLY DRIFTING UP THE COAST AND
INTO THE AREA TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOW WELL INTO THE POST-FRONTAL REGIME...WE`RE RECEIVING A TRUE
COLD AIR SURGE BEHIND IT. THE 3AM TEMP AT IAD WAS 64...DCA 72.
DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED A SUBSTANTIAL 10-15F DEG - EVEN
LOWER IN SOME AREAS - FROM THE AFTN LEVELS. AFTER POKING INTO THE
MIDDLE-UPPER 80S YESTERDAY AFTN FOR HIGHS...TEMPS ARE STEADILY
DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 60S - EXPECTED TO BOTTOM-OUT IN THE U50S BY
DAWN.

GUSTY NW WINDS BRINGING IN THIS SURGE OF COOLER/DRIER AIR...
AS WELL AS CLEARING OUT THE RESIDUAL MID-LEVEL STRATUS FROM THE
FRONTAL BAND. DENSE LOWER STRATUS NOW PULLING INTO THE APLCNS FROM
THE OHIO VLY...PART OF THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH ROUNDING THE GREAT
LAKES ATTM. MUCH OF THIS CLOUD DECK WILL DISSIPATE OFF BEFORE
REACHING THE METRO AREAS/I-95 CORRIDOR...THOUGH PART OF IT WILL
SCRAPE THE MASON-DIXON LINE AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD.
THIS AXIS IS CURRENTLY EXITING THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...MOVING
ACROSS THE NRN SHEN VLY.

A BULK OF THE ENERGY W/ THIS SYSTEM IS ALREADY WELL TO OUR NORTH
AND TAKING OFF TOWARD THE NE...BUT ANOTHER STRAGGLER PIECE OF THE
UPPER WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG DOWN TO OUR SW AND SWING ACROSS
THE SRN APLCNS TODAY. THIS WILL HELP KEEP OUR AREA UNDER THE
COOLER AIRMASS FOR A BIT LONGER AND ALLOW HIGHS TODAY TO BARELY
CRACK 70F...THE HIGHEST VALUES WILL BE ALONG AND E OF I-95. A MUCH
SMALLER DIURNAL TEMP DIFFERENCE ACROSS THE MTNS...UNDER THE
SHELTERING DENSE STRATUS - THEIR LOWS TO START THE DAY WILL BE IN
THE L50S HIGHS WILL JUST REACH THE L60S THIS AFTN...STILL UNDER
BROKEN SKY COVER. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME
HRS...GIVING THE AREA SOMEWHAT OF A CHILL TO THE AIR - TO KICK OFF
THE FIRST DAY OF AUTUMN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LEFTOVER PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY SLIDING DOWN TOWARD THE
CAROLINAS IS EXPECTED TO ESSENTIALLY BREAK FROM THE PARENT UPPER
TROUGH LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME A WX-MAKER
FOR OUR AREA AND OVER TO THE COASTAL AREAS LATER IN THE WEEK.
UNTIL THEN...THE LARGE CANADIAN AIRMASS GOVERNED BY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER MUCH OF THE REGION FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.

DEWPOINTS TONIGHT WILL DROP AND BOTTOM-OUT IN THE L40S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA...W/ 30S SPREADING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. UNDER
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT...THIS WILL ALLOW OUR LOW TEMPS TO
MAKE A SIMILAR DROP. STILL W/ SOME NEAR-COASTAL MOISTURE
EFFECTS...THE I-95 CORRIDOR WILL REMAIN IN THE U40S/L50S TAPERING
DOWN INTO THE L-M40S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. USED A BLEND
OF THE BIAS-CORRECTED GFS AND MOS/WRFARW.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE EVEN MORE PLEASANT AS WINDS DROP OFF
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN. CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS BARELY ABOVE
70F W/ A LIGHT NLY BREEZE...WHILE THE JET STREAM RETREATS BRIEFLY
TO THE NORTH AND A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW HANGS OUT OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND WILL
KEEP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC IN A WEDGE OF COOLER AIR WITH ONSHORE FLOW
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND BECOMES MORE
ELONGATED...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF
LOW/TROUGH TO SWING OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S COAST AND AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE GFS WHICH KEEPS THE
HIGH A BIT STRONGER AND SUPPRESSES MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH AND THE
ECMWF WHICH IS WEAKER WITH THE HIGH AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THE
MOISTURE. THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE RAINFALL WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
HOW STRONG THE HIGH IS AND ITS PLACEMENT. ATTM...CONTINUED TO SIDE
TOWARD THE GFS AND KEPT CHANCE POPS RELEGATED TO THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE LWX CWFA. CLOUD COVER AND ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT WILL
KEEP HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO RESTRENGTHEN FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
PLEASANT CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEKEND MAY CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST WEEKEND OF FALL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PASSING OVERHEAD...CARRYING GUSTY WINDS -
A VERY FALL-LIKE SYSTEM W/ DRY AND COOL NW WINDS OF 15-25KT
STEADY. EVEN W/ BRIEF LULLS IN THE WIND FIELD...THESE GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE ALL-DAY AND THEN QUICKLY DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.
VFR CONDS OTHERWISE INTO TUE.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CEILINGS AND SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ESPECIALLY FROM KBWI TO KDCA TO KCHO AND POINTS
SOUTH. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SOLID SCA GUSTS SPREADING ACROSS THE WATERS. THE LAND AREAS TO THE
WEST STAYING IN THE 15-25KT RANGE AND SO WILL THE WATERS THRU THE
DAYTIME AREAS TODAY.

A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATER WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST
INTO THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR
A PORTION OF THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW SCA LEVELS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MIDWEEK. THIS
WILL LEAD TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL WATER LEVELS PARTICULARLY OVER THE
WESTERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. MINOR TIDAL INUNDATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GMS
NEAR TERM...GMS
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...KRW
AVIATION...GMS/KRW
MARINE...GMS/KRW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KRW








000
FXUS61 KLWX 220759
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
359 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS WEEK. A CUT OFF
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE NEAR THE SOUTHERN
ATLANTIC COAST INTO MID-WEEK...POSSIBLY DRIFTING UP THE COAST AND
INTO THE AREA TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOW WELL INTO THE POST-FRONTAL REGIME...WE`RE RECEIVING A TRUE
COLD AIR SURGE BEHIND IT. THE 3AM TEMP AT IAD WAS 64...DCA 72.
DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED A SUBSTANTIAL 10-15F DEG - EVEN
LOWER IN SOME AREAS - FROM THE AFTN LEVELS. AFTER POKING INTO THE
MIDDLE-UPPER 80S YESTERDAY AFTN FOR HIGHS...TEMPS ARE STEADILY
DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 60S - EXPECTED TO BOTTOM-OUT IN THE U50S BY
DAWN.

GUSTY NW WINDS BRINGING IN THIS SURGE OF COOLER/DRIER AIR...
AS WELL AS CLEARING OUT THE RESIDUAL MID-LEVEL STRATUS FROM THE
FRONTAL BAND. DENSE LOWER STRATUS NOW PULLING INTO THE APLCNS FROM
THE OHIO VLY...PART OF THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH ROUNDING THE GREAT
LAKES ATTM. MUCH OF THIS CLOUD DECK WILL DISSIPATE OFF BEFORE
REACHING THE METRO AREAS/I-95 CORRIDOR...THOUGH PART OF IT WILL
SCRAPE THE MASON-DIXON LINE AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD.
THIS AXIS IS CURRENTLY EXITING THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...MOVING
ACROSS THE NRN SHEN VLY.

A BULK OF THE ENERGY W/ THIS SYSTEM IS ALREADY WELL TO OUR NORTH
AND TAKING OFF TOWARD THE NE...BUT ANOTHER STRAGGLER PIECE OF THE
UPPER WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG DOWN TO OUR SW AND SWING ACROSS
THE SRN APLCNS TODAY. THIS WILL HELP KEEP OUR AREA UNDER THE
COOLER AIRMASS FOR A BIT LONGER AND ALLOW HIGHS TODAY TO BARELY
CRACK 70F...THE HIGHEST VALUES WILL BE ALONG AND E OF I-95. A MUCH
SMALLER DIURNAL TEMP DIFFERENCE ACROSS THE MTNS...UNDER THE
SHELTERING DENSE STRATUS - THEIR LOWS TO START THE DAY WILL BE IN
THE L50S HIGHS WILL JUST REACH THE L60S THIS AFTN...STILL UNDER
BROKEN SKY COVER. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME
HRS...GIVING THE AREA SOMEWHAT OF A CHILL TO THE AIR - TO KICK OFF
THE FIRST DAY OF AUTUMN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LEFTOVER PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY SLIDING DOWN TOWARD THE
CAROLINAS IS EXPECTED TO ESSENTIALLY BREAK FROM THE PARENT UPPER
TROUGH LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME A WX-MAKER
FOR OUR AREA AND OVER TO THE COASTAL AREAS LATER IN THE WEEK.
UNTIL THEN...THE LARGE CANADIAN AIRMASS GOVERNED BY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER MUCH OF THE REGION FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.

DEWPOINTS TONIGHT WILL DROP AND BOTTOM-OUT IN THE L40S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA...W/ 30S SPREADING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. UNDER
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT...THIS WILL ALLOW OUR LOW TEMPS TO
MAKE A SIMILAR DROP. STILL W/ SOME NEAR-COASTAL MOISTURE
EFFECTS...THE I-95 CORRIDOR WILL REMAIN IN THE U40S/L50S TAPERING
DOWN INTO THE L-M40S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. USED A BLEND
OF THE BIAS-CORRECTED GFS AND MOS/WRFARW.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE EVEN MORE PLEASANT AS WINDS DROP OFF
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN. CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS BARELY ABOVE
70F W/ A LIGHT NLY BREEZE...WHILE THE JET STREAM RETREATS BRIEFLY
TO THE NORTH AND A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW HANGS OUT OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND WILL
KEEP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC IN A WEDGE OF COOLER AIR WITH ONSHORE FLOW
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND BECOMES MORE
ELONGATED...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF
LOW/TROUGH TO SWING OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S COAST AND AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE GFS WHICH KEEPS THE
HIGH A BIT STRONGER AND SUPPRESSES MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH AND THE
ECMWF WHICH IS WEAKER WITH THE HIGH AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THE
MOISTURE. THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE RAINFALL WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
HOW STRONG THE HIGH IS AND ITS PLACEMENT. ATTM...CONTINUED TO SIDE
TOWARD THE GFS AND KEPT CHANCE POPS RELEGATED TO THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE LWX CWFA. CLOUD COVER AND ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT WILL
KEEP HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO RESTRENGTHEN FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
PLEASANT CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEKEND MAY CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST WEEKEND OF FALL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PASSING OVERHEAD...CARRYING GUSTY WINDS -
A VERY FALL-LIKE SYSTEM W/ DRY AND COOL NW WINDS OF 15-25KT
STEADY. EVEN W/ BRIEF LULLS IN THE WIND FIELD...THESE GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE ALL-DAY AND THEN QUICKLY DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.
VFR CONDS OTHERWISE INTO TUE.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CEILINGS AND SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ESPECIALLY FROM KBWI TO KDCA TO KCHO AND POINTS
SOUTH. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SOLID SCA GUSTS SPREADING ACROSS THE WATERS. THE LAND AREAS TO THE
WEST STAYING IN THE 15-25KT RANGE AND SO WILL THE WATERS THRU THE
DAYTIME AREAS TODAY.

A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATER WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST
INTO THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR
A PORTION OF THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW SCA LEVELS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MIDWEEK. THIS
WILL LEAD TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL WATER LEVELS PARTICULARLY OVER THE
WESTERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. MINOR TIDAL INUNDATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GMS
NEAR TERM...GMS
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...KRW
AVIATION...GMS/KRW
MARINE...GMS/KRW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KRW








000
FXUS61 KLWX 220759
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
359 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS WEEK. A CUT OFF
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE NEAR THE SOUTHERN
ATLANTIC COAST INTO MID-WEEK...POSSIBLY DRIFTING UP THE COAST AND
INTO THE AREA TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOW WELL INTO THE POST-FRONTAL REGIME...WE`RE RECEIVING A TRUE
COLD AIR SURGE BEHIND IT. THE 3AM TEMP AT IAD WAS 64...DCA 72.
DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED A SUBSTANTIAL 10-15F DEG - EVEN
LOWER IN SOME AREAS - FROM THE AFTN LEVELS. AFTER POKING INTO THE
MIDDLE-UPPER 80S YESTERDAY AFTN FOR HIGHS...TEMPS ARE STEADILY
DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 60S - EXPECTED TO BOTTOM-OUT IN THE U50S BY
DAWN.

GUSTY NW WINDS BRINGING IN THIS SURGE OF COOLER/DRIER AIR...
AS WELL AS CLEARING OUT THE RESIDUAL MID-LEVEL STRATUS FROM THE
FRONTAL BAND. DENSE LOWER STRATUS NOW PULLING INTO THE APLCNS FROM
THE OHIO VLY...PART OF THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH ROUNDING THE GREAT
LAKES ATTM. MUCH OF THIS CLOUD DECK WILL DISSIPATE OFF BEFORE
REACHING THE METRO AREAS/I-95 CORRIDOR...THOUGH PART OF IT WILL
SCRAPE THE MASON-DIXON LINE AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD.
THIS AXIS IS CURRENTLY EXITING THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...MOVING
ACROSS THE NRN SHEN VLY.

A BULK OF THE ENERGY W/ THIS SYSTEM IS ALREADY WELL TO OUR NORTH
AND TAKING OFF TOWARD THE NE...BUT ANOTHER STRAGGLER PIECE OF THE
UPPER WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG DOWN TO OUR SW AND SWING ACROSS
THE SRN APLCNS TODAY. THIS WILL HELP KEEP OUR AREA UNDER THE
COOLER AIRMASS FOR A BIT LONGER AND ALLOW HIGHS TODAY TO BARELY
CRACK 70F...THE HIGHEST VALUES WILL BE ALONG AND E OF I-95. A MUCH
SMALLER DIURNAL TEMP DIFFERENCE ACROSS THE MTNS...UNDER THE
SHELTERING DENSE STRATUS - THEIR LOWS TO START THE DAY WILL BE IN
THE L50S HIGHS WILL JUST REACH THE L60S THIS AFTN...STILL UNDER
BROKEN SKY COVER. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME
HRS...GIVING THE AREA SOMEWHAT OF A CHILL TO THE AIR - TO KICK OFF
THE FIRST DAY OF AUTUMN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LEFTOVER PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY SLIDING DOWN TOWARD THE
CAROLINAS IS EXPECTED TO ESSENTIALLY BREAK FROM THE PARENT UPPER
TROUGH LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME A WX-MAKER
FOR OUR AREA AND OVER TO THE COASTAL AREAS LATER IN THE WEEK.
UNTIL THEN...THE LARGE CANADIAN AIRMASS GOVERNED BY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER MUCH OF THE REGION FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.

DEWPOINTS TONIGHT WILL DROP AND BOTTOM-OUT IN THE L40S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA...W/ 30S SPREADING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. UNDER
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT...THIS WILL ALLOW OUR LOW TEMPS TO
MAKE A SIMILAR DROP. STILL W/ SOME NEAR-COASTAL MOISTURE
EFFECTS...THE I-95 CORRIDOR WILL REMAIN IN THE U40S/L50S TAPERING
DOWN INTO THE L-M40S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. USED A BLEND
OF THE BIAS-CORRECTED GFS AND MOS/WRFARW.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE EVEN MORE PLEASANT AS WINDS DROP OFF
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN. CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS BARELY ABOVE
70F W/ A LIGHT NLY BREEZE...WHILE THE JET STREAM RETREATS BRIEFLY
TO THE NORTH AND A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW HANGS OUT OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND WILL
KEEP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC IN A WEDGE OF COOLER AIR WITH ONSHORE FLOW
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND BECOMES MORE
ELONGATED...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF
LOW/TROUGH TO SWING OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S COAST AND AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE GFS WHICH KEEPS THE
HIGH A BIT STRONGER AND SUPPRESSES MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH AND THE
ECMWF WHICH IS WEAKER WITH THE HIGH AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THE
MOISTURE. THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE RAINFALL WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
HOW STRONG THE HIGH IS AND ITS PLACEMENT. ATTM...CONTINUED TO SIDE
TOWARD THE GFS AND KEPT CHANCE POPS RELEGATED TO THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE LWX CWFA. CLOUD COVER AND ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT WILL
KEEP HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO RESTRENGTHEN FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
PLEASANT CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEKEND MAY CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST WEEKEND OF FALL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PASSING OVERHEAD...CARRYING GUSTY WINDS -
A VERY FALL-LIKE SYSTEM W/ DRY AND COOL NW WINDS OF 15-25KT
STEADY. EVEN W/ BRIEF LULLS IN THE WIND FIELD...THESE GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE ALL-DAY AND THEN QUICKLY DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.
VFR CONDS OTHERWISE INTO TUE.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CEILINGS AND SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ESPECIALLY FROM KBWI TO KDCA TO KCHO AND POINTS
SOUTH. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SOLID SCA GUSTS SPREADING ACROSS THE WATERS. THE LAND AREAS TO THE
WEST STAYING IN THE 15-25KT RANGE AND SO WILL THE WATERS THRU THE
DAYTIME AREAS TODAY.

A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATER WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST
INTO THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR
A PORTION OF THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW SCA LEVELS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MIDWEEK. THIS
WILL LEAD TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL WATER LEVELS PARTICULARLY OVER THE
WESTERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. MINOR TIDAL INUNDATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GMS
NEAR TERM...GMS
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...KRW
AVIATION...GMS/KRW
MARINE...GMS/KRW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KRW








000
FXUS61 KLWX 220759
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
359 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS WEEK. A CUT OFF
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE NEAR THE SOUTHERN
ATLANTIC COAST INTO MID-WEEK...POSSIBLY DRIFTING UP THE COAST AND
INTO THE AREA TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOW WELL INTO THE POST-FRONTAL REGIME...WE`RE RECEIVING A TRUE
COLD AIR SURGE BEHIND IT. THE 3AM TEMP AT IAD WAS 64...DCA 72.
DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED A SUBSTANTIAL 10-15F DEG - EVEN
LOWER IN SOME AREAS - FROM THE AFTN LEVELS. AFTER POKING INTO THE
MIDDLE-UPPER 80S YESTERDAY AFTN FOR HIGHS...TEMPS ARE STEADILY
DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 60S - EXPECTED TO BOTTOM-OUT IN THE U50S BY
DAWN.

GUSTY NW WINDS BRINGING IN THIS SURGE OF COOLER/DRIER AIR...
AS WELL AS CLEARING OUT THE RESIDUAL MID-LEVEL STRATUS FROM THE
FRONTAL BAND. DENSE LOWER STRATUS NOW PULLING INTO THE APLCNS FROM
THE OHIO VLY...PART OF THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH ROUNDING THE GREAT
LAKES ATTM. MUCH OF THIS CLOUD DECK WILL DISSIPATE OFF BEFORE
REACHING THE METRO AREAS/I-95 CORRIDOR...THOUGH PART OF IT WILL
SCRAPE THE MASON-DIXON LINE AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD.
THIS AXIS IS CURRENTLY EXITING THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...MOVING
ACROSS THE NRN SHEN VLY.

A BULK OF THE ENERGY W/ THIS SYSTEM IS ALREADY WELL TO OUR NORTH
AND TAKING OFF TOWARD THE NE...BUT ANOTHER STRAGGLER PIECE OF THE
UPPER WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG DOWN TO OUR SW AND SWING ACROSS
THE SRN APLCNS TODAY. THIS WILL HELP KEEP OUR AREA UNDER THE
COOLER AIRMASS FOR A BIT LONGER AND ALLOW HIGHS TODAY TO BARELY
CRACK 70F...THE HIGHEST VALUES WILL BE ALONG AND E OF I-95. A MUCH
SMALLER DIURNAL TEMP DIFFERENCE ACROSS THE MTNS...UNDER THE
SHELTERING DENSE STRATUS - THEIR LOWS TO START THE DAY WILL BE IN
THE L50S HIGHS WILL JUST REACH THE L60S THIS AFTN...STILL UNDER
BROKEN SKY COVER. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME
HRS...GIVING THE AREA SOMEWHAT OF A CHILL TO THE AIR - TO KICK OFF
THE FIRST DAY OF AUTUMN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LEFTOVER PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY SLIDING DOWN TOWARD THE
CAROLINAS IS EXPECTED TO ESSENTIALLY BREAK FROM THE PARENT UPPER
TROUGH LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME A WX-MAKER
FOR OUR AREA AND OVER TO THE COASTAL AREAS LATER IN THE WEEK.
UNTIL THEN...THE LARGE CANADIAN AIRMASS GOVERNED BY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER MUCH OF THE REGION FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.

DEWPOINTS TONIGHT WILL DROP AND BOTTOM-OUT IN THE L40S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA...W/ 30S SPREADING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. UNDER
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT...THIS WILL ALLOW OUR LOW TEMPS TO
MAKE A SIMILAR DROP. STILL W/ SOME NEAR-COASTAL MOISTURE
EFFECTS...THE I-95 CORRIDOR WILL REMAIN IN THE U40S/L50S TAPERING
DOWN INTO THE L-M40S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. USED A BLEND
OF THE BIAS-CORRECTED GFS AND MOS/WRFARW.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE EVEN MORE PLEASANT AS WINDS DROP OFF
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN. CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS BARELY ABOVE
70F W/ A LIGHT NLY BREEZE...WHILE THE JET STREAM RETREATS BRIEFLY
TO THE NORTH AND A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW HANGS OUT OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND WILL
KEEP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC IN A WEDGE OF COOLER AIR WITH ONSHORE FLOW
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND BECOMES MORE
ELONGATED...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF
LOW/TROUGH TO SWING OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S COAST AND AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE GFS WHICH KEEPS THE
HIGH A BIT STRONGER AND SUPPRESSES MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH AND THE
ECMWF WHICH IS WEAKER WITH THE HIGH AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THE
MOISTURE. THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE RAINFALL WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
HOW STRONG THE HIGH IS AND ITS PLACEMENT. ATTM...CONTINUED TO SIDE
TOWARD THE GFS AND KEPT CHANCE POPS RELEGATED TO THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE LWX CWFA. CLOUD COVER AND ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT WILL
KEEP HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO RESTRENGTHEN FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
PLEASANT CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEKEND MAY CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST WEEKEND OF FALL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PASSING OVERHEAD...CARRYING GUSTY WINDS -
A VERY FALL-LIKE SYSTEM W/ DRY AND COOL NW WINDS OF 15-25KT
STEADY. EVEN W/ BRIEF LULLS IN THE WIND FIELD...THESE GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE ALL-DAY AND THEN QUICKLY DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.
VFR CONDS OTHERWISE INTO TUE.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CEILINGS AND SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ESPECIALLY FROM KBWI TO KDCA TO KCHO AND POINTS
SOUTH. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SOLID SCA GUSTS SPREADING ACROSS THE WATERS. THE LAND AREAS TO THE
WEST STAYING IN THE 15-25KT RANGE AND SO WILL THE WATERS THRU THE
DAYTIME AREAS TODAY.

A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATER WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST
INTO THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR
A PORTION OF THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW SCA LEVELS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MIDWEEK. THIS
WILL LEAD TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL WATER LEVELS PARTICULARLY OVER THE
WESTERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. MINOR TIDAL INUNDATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GMS
NEAR TERM...GMS
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...KRW
AVIATION...GMS/KRW
MARINE...GMS/KRW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KRW








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220627
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
227 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE COMBINATION OF DOWNSLOPE DRYING AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
GREATER THAN 5 DEGREES ARE KEEPING THE LOW LEVELS DRY ENOUGH TO
CAUSE PREFRONTAL SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE. THE SFC COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST INSIDE THE WRN VA STATE BORDER AND WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS KEEP BEST
SHOWERS S-SW OF THE FA...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OF 20 PERCENT DUE TO ENHANCED LIFT POTENTIAL ALONG THE SFC
BOUNDARY. LIQUID PRECIP TOTALS WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH ANTICIPATED
ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.05 INCHES OR LESS. LOW TEMPERATURES AT OR
ABOVE 60 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS
OF THE FA...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S EXPECTED WEST OF I-95.

FOR MONDAY...BOTH NAM AND GFS SUGGEST FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN OR SLOW
FOR A SHORT TIME JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. THIS WILL DELAY CLEARING
ACROSS OUR NE NC COUNTIES...BUT PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
CWA. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH
TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW WILL
BRING THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50 (MID
50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST). A SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S (PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES). ANOTHER
COOL NIGHT EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT,,,WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM 45
TO 50 FROM I-95 WESTWARD...TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COAST.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF STILL IN CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT WHEN IT COMES TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR A WAVE TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE
CWA...THEN LIFT NWD/NNWWD INTO THE REGION FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD.
HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE GFS/NAM FOR WEDNESDAY...WHICH SUGGEST A
DRY DAY IS ON TAP...WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND
SLGTLY BLO NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
STAGNANT THRU THE PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY
OF THE OH VALLEY/NE STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH
AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER
TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL
STICK TO 20% POPS FOR NOW. MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WITH 12Z GFS KEEPING ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE 12Z
ECMWF BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED NGT. HI TEMPS WILL
RANGE THRU THE 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 50S NW TO MID
60S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE MAINLY DRY...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF A
BRIEF -SHRA AT ECG AND ORF. A SW WIND OF 8-12KT WILL SHIFT TO NW
THEN N BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING...AND BECOME LOCALLY GUSTY UP
TO 20KT AT SBY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NW TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE FRONT AND ATTEMPTS
TO NUDGE NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL RA ALONG WITH REDUCED VSBY AND LOW CIGS.
A MODESTLY STRONG NE WIND IS ALSO EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
7 PM UPDATE...EXTENDED SCA INTO MONDAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES BASED ON SWAN/WAVE WATCH. THIS IS DUE TO AN
INCREASE IN THE WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND TO MATCH UP WITH HEADLINES TO THE NORTH. SEAS ARE BARELY
HOLDING ON TO SCA SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES BUT WILL HOLD ON TO SCA
FOR NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 08Z/4 AM. WILL NEED TO CONSIDER SCA IN THE
BAY BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH LATER ISSUANCES AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LO PRES CENTERED JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
CST THIS AFTN WILL TRACK NE OF THE REGION TNGT. AS FAR AS
HEADLINES...SCA OVR ALL CSTL WTRS WILL CONTINUE THRU 4 AM FOR 5-6
FT SEAS DUE TO PROLONGED ERLY FETCH. A COLD FRNT CROSSES THE WTRS
LATE TNGT...WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO STAY JUST SHY OF SCA
CRITERIA POST FRNTAL DUE TO A MARGINAL GRADIENT AND CAA. WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR THIS HOWEVER WITH IT BEING CLOSE AND WINDS OVR THE BAY
EXPECTED TO REACH ~15 KT. SECONDARY SURGE AND HI PRES BLDG N OF
THE AREA MON NGT MAY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS WITH
WINDS JUST SHY OF 20 KT OVR THE BAY...BUT WILL CAP AT AROUND 15 KT
FOR NOW. FOR TUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER PROLONGED
PERIOD OF NE FLOW WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED WAVES/SEAS AND SCA
CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR AT LEAST ALL CSTL WTRS AND THE MOUTH OF THE
BAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ~1.0FT ABOVE NORMAL TODAY FOR ALL
AREAS...AND INTO TONIGHT FOR THE MIDDLE BAY. PREDICTED HIGH TIDE
TONIGHT IS HIGHER THAN AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE TIDAL ANOMALY COULD NUDGE WATER LEVELS AT CAMBRIDGE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 3.0FT MLLW AND NEAR 3.0FT MLLW AT LEWISETTA. THESE
VALUES WOULD FALL JUST SHORT OF MINOR THRESHOLDS. TIDAL DEPARTURES
WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/WRS
NEAR TERM...BMD/WRS
SHORT TERM...JDM/WRS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...MAS/LSA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220627
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
227 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE COMBINATION OF DOWNSLOPE DRYING AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
GREATER THAN 5 DEGREES ARE KEEPING THE LOW LEVELS DRY ENOUGH TO
CAUSE PREFRONTAL SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE. THE SFC COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST INSIDE THE WRN VA STATE BORDER AND WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS KEEP BEST
SHOWERS S-SW OF THE FA...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OF 20 PERCENT DUE TO ENHANCED LIFT POTENTIAL ALONG THE SFC
BOUNDARY. LIQUID PRECIP TOTALS WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH ANTICIPATED
ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.05 INCHES OR LESS. LOW TEMPERATURES AT OR
ABOVE 60 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS
OF THE FA...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S EXPECTED WEST OF I-95.

FOR MONDAY...BOTH NAM AND GFS SUGGEST FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN OR SLOW
FOR A SHORT TIME JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. THIS WILL DELAY CLEARING
ACROSS OUR NE NC COUNTIES...BUT PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
CWA. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH
TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW WILL
BRING THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50 (MID
50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST). A SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S (PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES). ANOTHER
COOL NIGHT EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT,,,WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM 45
TO 50 FROM I-95 WESTWARD...TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COAST.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF STILL IN CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT WHEN IT COMES TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR A WAVE TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE
CWA...THEN LIFT NWD/NNWWD INTO THE REGION FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD.
HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE GFS/NAM FOR WEDNESDAY...WHICH SUGGEST A
DRY DAY IS ON TAP...WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND
SLGTLY BLO NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
STAGNANT THRU THE PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY
OF THE OH VALLEY/NE STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH
AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER
TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL
STICK TO 20% POPS FOR NOW. MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WITH 12Z GFS KEEPING ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE 12Z
ECMWF BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED NGT. HI TEMPS WILL
RANGE THRU THE 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 50S NW TO MID
60S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE MAINLY DRY...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF A
BRIEF -SHRA AT ECG AND ORF. A SW WIND OF 8-12KT WILL SHIFT TO NW
THEN N BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING...AND BECOME LOCALLY GUSTY UP
TO 20KT AT SBY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NW TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE FRONT AND ATTEMPTS
TO NUDGE NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL RA ALONG WITH REDUCED VSBY AND LOW CIGS.
A MODESTLY STRONG NE WIND IS ALSO EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
7 PM UPDATE...EXTENDED SCA INTO MONDAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES BASED ON SWAN/WAVE WATCH. THIS IS DUE TO AN
INCREASE IN THE WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND TO MATCH UP WITH HEADLINES TO THE NORTH. SEAS ARE BARELY
HOLDING ON TO SCA SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES BUT WILL HOLD ON TO SCA
FOR NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 08Z/4 AM. WILL NEED TO CONSIDER SCA IN THE
BAY BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH LATER ISSUANCES AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LO PRES CENTERED JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
CST THIS AFTN WILL TRACK NE OF THE REGION TNGT. AS FAR AS
HEADLINES...SCA OVR ALL CSTL WTRS WILL CONTINUE THRU 4 AM FOR 5-6
FT SEAS DUE TO PROLONGED ERLY FETCH. A COLD FRNT CROSSES THE WTRS
LATE TNGT...WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO STAY JUST SHY OF SCA
CRITERIA POST FRNTAL DUE TO A MARGINAL GRADIENT AND CAA. WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR THIS HOWEVER WITH IT BEING CLOSE AND WINDS OVR THE BAY
EXPECTED TO REACH ~15 KT. SECONDARY SURGE AND HI PRES BLDG N OF
THE AREA MON NGT MAY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS WITH
WINDS JUST SHY OF 20 KT OVR THE BAY...BUT WILL CAP AT AROUND 15 KT
FOR NOW. FOR TUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER PROLONGED
PERIOD OF NE FLOW WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED WAVES/SEAS AND SCA
CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR AT LEAST ALL CSTL WTRS AND THE MOUTH OF THE
BAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ~1.0FT ABOVE NORMAL TODAY FOR ALL
AREAS...AND INTO TONIGHT FOR THE MIDDLE BAY. PREDICTED HIGH TIDE
TONIGHT IS HIGHER THAN AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE TIDAL ANOMALY COULD NUDGE WATER LEVELS AT CAMBRIDGE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 3.0FT MLLW AND NEAR 3.0FT MLLW AT LEWISETTA. THESE
VALUES WOULD FALL JUST SHORT OF MINOR THRESHOLDS. TIDAL DEPARTURES
WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/WRS
NEAR TERM...BMD/WRS
SHORT TERM...JDM/WRS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...MAS/LSA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220627
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
227 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE COMBINATION OF DOWNSLOPE DRYING AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
GREATER THAN 5 DEGREES ARE KEEPING THE LOW LEVELS DRY ENOUGH TO
CAUSE PREFRONTAL SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE. THE SFC COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST INSIDE THE WRN VA STATE BORDER AND WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS KEEP BEST
SHOWERS S-SW OF THE FA...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OF 20 PERCENT DUE TO ENHANCED LIFT POTENTIAL ALONG THE SFC
BOUNDARY. LIQUID PRECIP TOTALS WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH ANTICIPATED
ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.05 INCHES OR LESS. LOW TEMPERATURES AT OR
ABOVE 60 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS
OF THE FA...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S EXPECTED WEST OF I-95.

FOR MONDAY...BOTH NAM AND GFS SUGGEST FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN OR SLOW
FOR A SHORT TIME JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. THIS WILL DELAY CLEARING
ACROSS OUR NE NC COUNTIES...BUT PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
CWA. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH
TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW WILL
BRING THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50 (MID
50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST). A SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S (PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES). ANOTHER
COOL NIGHT EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT,,,WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM 45
TO 50 FROM I-95 WESTWARD...TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COAST.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF STILL IN CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT WHEN IT COMES TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR A WAVE TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE
CWA...THEN LIFT NWD/NNWWD INTO THE REGION FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD.
HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE GFS/NAM FOR WEDNESDAY...WHICH SUGGEST A
DRY DAY IS ON TAP...WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND
SLGTLY BLO NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
STAGNANT THRU THE PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY
OF THE OH VALLEY/NE STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH
AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER
TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL
STICK TO 20% POPS FOR NOW. MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WITH 12Z GFS KEEPING ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE 12Z
ECMWF BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED NGT. HI TEMPS WILL
RANGE THRU THE 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 50S NW TO MID
60S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE MAINLY DRY...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF A
BRIEF -SHRA AT ECG AND ORF. A SW WIND OF 8-12KT WILL SHIFT TO NW
THEN N BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING...AND BECOME LOCALLY GUSTY UP
TO 20KT AT SBY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NW TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE FRONT AND ATTEMPTS
TO NUDGE NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL RA ALONG WITH REDUCED VSBY AND LOW CIGS.
A MODESTLY STRONG NE WIND IS ALSO EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
7 PM UPDATE...EXTENDED SCA INTO MONDAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES BASED ON SWAN/WAVE WATCH. THIS IS DUE TO AN
INCREASE IN THE WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND TO MATCH UP WITH HEADLINES TO THE NORTH. SEAS ARE BARELY
HOLDING ON TO SCA SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES BUT WILL HOLD ON TO SCA
FOR NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 08Z/4 AM. WILL NEED TO CONSIDER SCA IN THE
BAY BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH LATER ISSUANCES AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LO PRES CENTERED JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
CST THIS AFTN WILL TRACK NE OF THE REGION TNGT. AS FAR AS
HEADLINES...SCA OVR ALL CSTL WTRS WILL CONTINUE THRU 4 AM FOR 5-6
FT SEAS DUE TO PROLONGED ERLY FETCH. A COLD FRNT CROSSES THE WTRS
LATE TNGT...WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO STAY JUST SHY OF SCA
CRITERIA POST FRNTAL DUE TO A MARGINAL GRADIENT AND CAA. WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR THIS HOWEVER WITH IT BEING CLOSE AND WINDS OVR THE BAY
EXPECTED TO REACH ~15 KT. SECONDARY SURGE AND HI PRES BLDG N OF
THE AREA MON NGT MAY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS WITH
WINDS JUST SHY OF 20 KT OVR THE BAY...BUT WILL CAP AT AROUND 15 KT
FOR NOW. FOR TUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER PROLONGED
PERIOD OF NE FLOW WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED WAVES/SEAS AND SCA
CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR AT LEAST ALL CSTL WTRS AND THE MOUTH OF THE
BAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ~1.0FT ABOVE NORMAL TODAY FOR ALL
AREAS...AND INTO TONIGHT FOR THE MIDDLE BAY. PREDICTED HIGH TIDE
TONIGHT IS HIGHER THAN AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE TIDAL ANOMALY COULD NUDGE WATER LEVELS AT CAMBRIDGE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 3.0FT MLLW AND NEAR 3.0FT MLLW AT LEWISETTA. THESE
VALUES WOULD FALL JUST SHORT OF MINOR THRESHOLDS. TIDAL DEPARTURES
WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/WRS
NEAR TERM...BMD/WRS
SHORT TERM...JDM/WRS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...MAS/LSA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220627
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
227 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE COMBINATION OF DOWNSLOPE DRYING AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
GREATER THAN 5 DEGREES ARE KEEPING THE LOW LEVELS DRY ENOUGH TO
CAUSE PREFRONTAL SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE. THE SFC COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST INSIDE THE WRN VA STATE BORDER AND WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS KEEP BEST
SHOWERS S-SW OF THE FA...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OF 20 PERCENT DUE TO ENHANCED LIFT POTENTIAL ALONG THE SFC
BOUNDARY. LIQUID PRECIP TOTALS WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH ANTICIPATED
ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.05 INCHES OR LESS. LOW TEMPERATURES AT OR
ABOVE 60 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS
OF THE FA...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S EXPECTED WEST OF I-95.

FOR MONDAY...BOTH NAM AND GFS SUGGEST FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN OR SLOW
FOR A SHORT TIME JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. THIS WILL DELAY CLEARING
ACROSS OUR NE NC COUNTIES...BUT PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
CWA. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH
TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW WILL
BRING THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50 (MID
50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST). A SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S (PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES). ANOTHER
COOL NIGHT EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT,,,WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM 45
TO 50 FROM I-95 WESTWARD...TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COAST.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF STILL IN CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT WHEN IT COMES TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR A WAVE TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE
CWA...THEN LIFT NWD/NNWWD INTO THE REGION FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD.
HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE GFS/NAM FOR WEDNESDAY...WHICH SUGGEST A
DRY DAY IS ON TAP...WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND
SLGTLY BLO NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
STAGNANT THRU THE PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY
OF THE OH VALLEY/NE STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH
AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER
TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL
STICK TO 20% POPS FOR NOW. MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WITH 12Z GFS KEEPING ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE 12Z
ECMWF BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED NGT. HI TEMPS WILL
RANGE THRU THE 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 50S NW TO MID
60S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE MAINLY DRY...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF A
BRIEF -SHRA AT ECG AND ORF. A SW WIND OF 8-12KT WILL SHIFT TO NW
THEN N BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING...AND BECOME LOCALLY GUSTY UP
TO 20KT AT SBY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NW TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE FRONT AND ATTEMPTS
TO NUDGE NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL RA ALONG WITH REDUCED VSBY AND LOW CIGS.
A MODESTLY STRONG NE WIND IS ALSO EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
7 PM UPDATE...EXTENDED SCA INTO MONDAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES BASED ON SWAN/WAVE WATCH. THIS IS DUE TO AN
INCREASE IN THE WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND TO MATCH UP WITH HEADLINES TO THE NORTH. SEAS ARE BARELY
HOLDING ON TO SCA SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES BUT WILL HOLD ON TO SCA
FOR NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 08Z/4 AM. WILL NEED TO CONSIDER SCA IN THE
BAY BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH LATER ISSUANCES AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LO PRES CENTERED JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
CST THIS AFTN WILL TRACK NE OF THE REGION TNGT. AS FAR AS
HEADLINES...SCA OVR ALL CSTL WTRS WILL CONTINUE THRU 4 AM FOR 5-6
FT SEAS DUE TO PROLONGED ERLY FETCH. A COLD FRNT CROSSES THE WTRS
LATE TNGT...WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO STAY JUST SHY OF SCA
CRITERIA POST FRNTAL DUE TO A MARGINAL GRADIENT AND CAA. WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR THIS HOWEVER WITH IT BEING CLOSE AND WINDS OVR THE BAY
EXPECTED TO REACH ~15 KT. SECONDARY SURGE AND HI PRES BLDG N OF
THE AREA MON NGT MAY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS WITH
WINDS JUST SHY OF 20 KT OVR THE BAY...BUT WILL CAP AT AROUND 15 KT
FOR NOW. FOR TUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER PROLONGED
PERIOD OF NE FLOW WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED WAVES/SEAS AND SCA
CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR AT LEAST ALL CSTL WTRS AND THE MOUTH OF THE
BAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ~1.0FT ABOVE NORMAL TODAY FOR ALL
AREAS...AND INTO TONIGHT FOR THE MIDDLE BAY. PREDICTED HIGH TIDE
TONIGHT IS HIGHER THAN AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE TIDAL ANOMALY COULD NUDGE WATER LEVELS AT CAMBRIDGE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 3.0FT MLLW AND NEAR 3.0FT MLLW AT LEWISETTA. THESE
VALUES WOULD FALL JUST SHORT OF MINOR THRESHOLDS. TIDAL DEPARTURES
WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/WRS
NEAR TERM...BMD/WRS
SHORT TERM...JDM/WRS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...MAS/LSA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS61 KRNK 220549
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
149 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT...AND REACH THE EAST COAST BY
MORNING. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL COVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1045 PM EDT SUNDAY...

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST...DEWPOINTS TAKING A NOTICEABLE PLUNGE...READINGS
FALLING INTO THE 40S. THIS AIRMASS CHANGE WILL RESULT IN A
NOTICEABLY COOLER FEELING TO THE AIR STARTING MONDAY.

FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING A GENERAL CLEARING TO AREAS EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. UPSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN LINGERING
CLOUDINESS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
HOLDING CLOUDS BANKED UP AGAINST WESTERN SLOPES THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. ONCE THIS TROUGH AXIS TRACKS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
MONDAY AFTERNOON...DRY AIR WILL ERODE MOUNTAIN CLOUDS RETURNING
SUNSHINE. DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE TO KEEP MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES MONDAY. PLAYED HIGH TEMPERATURES
MONDAY CLOSE TO ADJMAV WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 60S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT.

850 MB WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KTS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS
EARLY MONDAY...ESP ALONG THE RIDGE CRESTS WHERE SURFACE GUSTS OF
25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM EDT SUNDAY...

LOOKING AT A DRY AND COOL AIRMASS MON NIGHT-WED...WITH SFC HIGH
SHIFTING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL
SET UP A CLASSIC WEDGE OVER OUR AREA...WHICH AT FIRST WILL BE
CLEAR/SUNNY AND DRY/COOL.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE ECMWF HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A
CLOUDIER...WETTER SOLUTION THAN THE OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS...AND
ATTM LEANING TOWARD A BLEND. THINK POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ENOUGH
SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT AND NE-E FLOW AT THE SFC TO DRAW IN THE SOME
ATLANTIC MOISTURE. FOR NOW WILL LIMIT SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE WED NIGHT...WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS.

FOR TEMPS EXPECT THE COOLER MORNING TO BE TUESDAY MORNING...WHERE
SOME VALLEYS IN SE WV/FAR SW VA MAY DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S
WHILE MOST WILL SEE 40S.

TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE
MOUNTAINS...TO LOWER TO MID 70S EAST.

TEMPS MODIFY SOME WED NIGHT WITH 40S MOST PLACES...COOLER IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...THEN WARM AGAIN INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S...WITH WARMEST TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR SW CWA WHILE SE FLOW OUTSIDE
THE WEDGE MAY ENHANCE TEMPS.

WED NIGHT MODIFIES SOME WITH INCREASING CLOUDS WHERE LOWS RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NE STATES ON THURSDAY WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT WESTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO
A PROLONGED EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

MODELS ARE STARTING TO AGREE ON A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
FORMING ACROSS THE SE STATES LATE IN THE WEEK...HOWEVER THERE IS
STILL MAJOR DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT WHICH WILL AFFECT HOW MUCH
MOISTURE CAN GET PULLED UP INTO THE REGION. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE
MUCH DRIER THAN THE ECMWF. DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EASTWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM EDT MONDAY...

COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM VERMONT TO EASTERN VIRGINIA TO NORTHERN
LOUISIANA AT 05Z/1AM. SURFACE WIND WERE FROM THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS IN THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES
EARLY THIS MORNING. ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF WHEN
KLWB AND KBLF WILL DROP TO MVFR. BCB WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF VFR
TO MVFR CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING.

KLWB...AND ESPECIALLY KBLF WILL SEE THE MVFR CIGS HANG IN MUCH OF
THE DAY WITH UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TO THE EAST. BCB SHOULD SEE CIGS IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE 15Z/11AM-
17Z/1PM TIME FRAME. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND THE NORTHWEST
UPSLOPE FLOW WEAKENS...THE CLOUDS WILL ERODE. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT KLWB
AND KBLF WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 00Z.

EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR IN THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. RIVER VALLEY FOG
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AT NIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH AND COOL AIR
MASS DECOUPLES. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE GULF COAST
MAY BRING IFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...KK/PM
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...AMS/RAB



000
FXUS61 KRNK 220549
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
149 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT...AND REACH THE EAST COAST BY
MORNING. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL COVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1045 PM EDT SUNDAY...

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST...DEWPOINTS TAKING A NOTICEABLE PLUNGE...READINGS
FALLING INTO THE 40S. THIS AIRMASS CHANGE WILL RESULT IN A
NOTICEABLY COOLER FEELING TO THE AIR STARTING MONDAY.

FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING A GENERAL CLEARING TO AREAS EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. UPSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN LINGERING
CLOUDINESS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
HOLDING CLOUDS BANKED UP AGAINST WESTERN SLOPES THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. ONCE THIS TROUGH AXIS TRACKS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
MONDAY AFTERNOON...DRY AIR WILL ERODE MOUNTAIN CLOUDS RETURNING
SUNSHINE. DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE TO KEEP MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES MONDAY. PLAYED HIGH TEMPERATURES
MONDAY CLOSE TO ADJMAV WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 60S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT.

850 MB WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KTS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS
EARLY MONDAY...ESP ALONG THE RIDGE CRESTS WHERE SURFACE GUSTS OF
25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM EDT SUNDAY...

LOOKING AT A DRY AND COOL AIRMASS MON NIGHT-WED...WITH SFC HIGH
SHIFTING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL
SET UP A CLASSIC WEDGE OVER OUR AREA...WHICH AT FIRST WILL BE
CLEAR/SUNNY AND DRY/COOL.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE ECMWF HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A
CLOUDIER...WETTER SOLUTION THAN THE OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS...AND
ATTM LEANING TOWARD A BLEND. THINK POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ENOUGH
SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT AND NE-E FLOW AT THE SFC TO DRAW IN THE SOME
ATLANTIC MOISTURE. FOR NOW WILL LIMIT SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE WED NIGHT...WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS.

FOR TEMPS EXPECT THE COOLER MORNING TO BE TUESDAY MORNING...WHERE
SOME VALLEYS IN SE WV/FAR SW VA MAY DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S
WHILE MOST WILL SEE 40S.

TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE
MOUNTAINS...TO LOWER TO MID 70S EAST.

TEMPS MODIFY SOME WED NIGHT WITH 40S MOST PLACES...COOLER IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...THEN WARM AGAIN INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S...WITH WARMEST TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR SW CWA WHILE SE FLOW OUTSIDE
THE WEDGE MAY ENHANCE TEMPS.

WED NIGHT MODIFIES SOME WITH INCREASING CLOUDS WHERE LOWS RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NE STATES ON THURSDAY WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT WESTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO
A PROLONGED EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

MODELS ARE STARTING TO AGREE ON A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
FORMING ACROSS THE SE STATES LATE IN THE WEEK...HOWEVER THERE IS
STILL MAJOR DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT WHICH WILL AFFECT HOW MUCH
MOISTURE CAN GET PULLED UP INTO THE REGION. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE
MUCH DRIER THAN THE ECMWF. DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EASTWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM EDT MONDAY...

COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM VERMONT TO EASTERN VIRGINIA TO NORTHERN
LOUISIANA AT 05Z/1AM. SURFACE WIND WERE FROM THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS IN THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES
EARLY THIS MORNING. ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF WHEN
KLWB AND KBLF WILL DROP TO MVFR. BCB WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF VFR
TO MVFR CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING.

KLWB...AND ESPECIALLY KBLF WILL SEE THE MVFR CIGS HANG IN MUCH OF
THE DAY WITH UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TO THE EAST. BCB SHOULD SEE CIGS IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE 15Z/11AM-
17Z/1PM TIME FRAME. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND THE NORTHWEST
UPSLOPE FLOW WEAKENS...THE CLOUDS WILL ERODE. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT KLWB
AND KBLF WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 00Z.

EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR IN THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. RIVER VALLEY FOG
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AT NIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH AND COOL AIR
MASS DECOUPLES. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE GULF COAST
MAY BRING IFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...KK/PM
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...AMS/RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 220245
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1045 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT...AND WILL REACH THE EAST COAST
BY MONDAY MORNING. MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL COVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1045 PM EDT SUNDAY...

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...WINDS WILL INCREASEFROM
THE NORTHWEST...DEWPOINTS TAKING A NOTICEABLE PLUNGE...READINGS
FALLING INTO THE 40S. THIS AIRMASS CHANGE WILL RESULT IN A
NOTICEABLY COOLER FEELING TO THE AIR STARTING MONDAY.

FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING A GENERAL CLEARING TO AREAS EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. UPSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN LINGERING
CLOUDINESS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
HOLDING CLOUDS BANKED UP AGAINST WESTERN SLOPES THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. ONCE THIS TROUGH AXIS TRACKS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
MONDAY AFTERNOON...DRY AIR WILL ERODE MOUNTAIN CLOUDS RETURNING
SUNSHINE. DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE TO KEEP MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES MONDAY. PLAYED HIGH TEMPERATURES
MONDAY CLOSE TO ADJMAV WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 60S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT.

850 MB WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KTS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS
EARLY MONDAY...ESP ALONG THE RIDGE CRESTS WHERE SURFACE GUSTS OF
25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM EDT SUNDAY...

LOOKING AT A DRY AND COOL AIRMASS MON NIGHT-WED...WITH SFC HIGH
SHIFTING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL
SET UP A CLASSIC WEDGE OVER OUR AREA...WHICH AT FIRST WILL BE
CLEAR/SUNNY AND DRY/COOL.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE ECMWF HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A
CLOUDIER...WETTER SOLUTION THAN THE OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS...AND
ATTM LEANING TOWARD A BLEND. THINK POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ENOUGH
SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT AND NE-E FLOW AT THE SFC TO DRAW IN THE SOME
ATLANTIC MOISTURE. FOR NOW WILL LIMIT SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE WED NIGHT...WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS.

FOR TEMPS EXPECT THE COOLER MORNING TO BE TUESDAY MORNING...WHERE
SOME VALLEYS IN SE WV/FAR SW VA MAY DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S
WHILE MOST WILL SEE 40S.

TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE
MOUNTAINS...TO LOWER TO MID 70S EAST.

TEMPS MODIFY SOME WED NIGHT WITH 40S MOST PLACES...COOLER IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...THEN WARM AGAIN INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S...WITH WARMEST TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR SW CWA WHILE SE FLOW OUTSIDE
THE WEDGE MAY ENHANCE TEMPS.

WED NIGHT MODIFIES SOME WITH INCREASING CLOUDS WHERE LOWS RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NE STATES ON THURSDAY WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT WESTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO
A PROLONGED EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

MODELS ARE STARTING TO AGREE ON A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
FORMING ACROSS THE SE STATES LATE IN THE WEEK...HOWEVER THERE IS
STILL MAJOR DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT WHICH WILL AFFECT HOW MUCH
MOISTURE CAN GET PULLED UP INTO THE REGION. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE
MUCH DRIER THAN THE ECMWF. DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EASTWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 740 PM EDT SUNDAY...

COLD FRONT NEAR AN MGW-BKW LINE AT THIS HOUR. PRE-FRONTAL ACTIVITY
DISSIPATED FOR THE MOST PART AS IT CROSSED THE ALLEGHANY
FRONT...WITH FINAL LINE OF FRONTAL -SHRA AND PERHAPS ISOLD TSRA
NEAR THE FRONT AT THIS HOUR. MODELS SHOW THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAKE
IT TO THE ALLEGHANY FRONT...THEN DISSIPATE BEFORE MOVING EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. LWB AND ESPECIALLY BLF COULD STILL SEE A BRIEF
SHRA WITH BRIEF IFR VSBY/CIG...BUT THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT IT FOR
THAT. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF SHRA FROM ROA/LYH/DAN AS LITTLE
SUPPORT FOR ACTIVITY TO REACH THOSE AREAS. RETAINED VCSH FOR BCB
FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...EXPECT
TYPICAL WINTERLIKE SETUP WITH CLEARING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND
DEVELOPING MOSTLY MVFR STRATUS DECK TO THE WEST. BCB WILL BE ON
THE EDGE OF VFR TO MVFR OVERNIGHT. LWB...AND ESPECIALLY BLF WILL
SEE MVFR CIGS HANG IN MUCH OF THE DAY MON WITH UPSLOPE WEST FLOW.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TO THE EAST. BCB SHOULD SEE CIGS
IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE 16Z-18Z TIME FRAME. EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD. CANNOT SUPPORT IFR-LIFR FG ADVERTISED BY GFS/NAM MOS TAFS
WITH POTENTIAL STRATUS DECK TO THE WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT AND
DOWNSLOPE WINDS TO THE EAST. WINDS WSW 6-8KTS IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT...BECOMING WNW 6-8KTS BEHIND THE FRONT...INCREASING TO
8-10KTS AFT 14Z WITH LOW END GUSTS.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR IN THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. RIVER VALLEY FOG
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AT NIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH AND COOL AIR
MASS DECOUPLES AND MIN TEMPS LOWER INTO THE 40S...ESPECIALLY AT
LWB/BCB.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...KK/PM
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...KK/RAB



000
FXUS61 KRNK 220245
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1045 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT...AND WILL REACH THE EAST COAST
BY MONDAY MORNING. MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL COVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1045 PM EDT SUNDAY...

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...WINDS WILL INCREASEFROM
THE NORTHWEST...DEWPOINTS TAKING A NOTICEABLE PLUNGE...READINGS
FALLING INTO THE 40S. THIS AIRMASS CHANGE WILL RESULT IN A
NOTICEABLY COOLER FEELING TO THE AIR STARTING MONDAY.

FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING A GENERAL CLEARING TO AREAS EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. UPSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN LINGERING
CLOUDINESS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
HOLDING CLOUDS BANKED UP AGAINST WESTERN SLOPES THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. ONCE THIS TROUGH AXIS TRACKS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
MONDAY AFTERNOON...DRY AIR WILL ERODE MOUNTAIN CLOUDS RETURNING
SUNSHINE. DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE TO KEEP MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES MONDAY. PLAYED HIGH TEMPERATURES
MONDAY CLOSE TO ADJMAV WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 60S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT.

850 MB WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KTS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS
EARLY MONDAY...ESP ALONG THE RIDGE CRESTS WHERE SURFACE GUSTS OF
25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM EDT SUNDAY...

LOOKING AT A DRY AND COOL AIRMASS MON NIGHT-WED...WITH SFC HIGH
SHIFTING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL
SET UP A CLASSIC WEDGE OVER OUR AREA...WHICH AT FIRST WILL BE
CLEAR/SUNNY AND DRY/COOL.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE ECMWF HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A
CLOUDIER...WETTER SOLUTION THAN THE OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS...AND
ATTM LEANING TOWARD A BLEND. THINK POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ENOUGH
SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT AND NE-E FLOW AT THE SFC TO DRAW IN THE SOME
ATLANTIC MOISTURE. FOR NOW WILL LIMIT SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE WED NIGHT...WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS.

FOR TEMPS EXPECT THE COOLER MORNING TO BE TUESDAY MORNING...WHERE
SOME VALLEYS IN SE WV/FAR SW VA MAY DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S
WHILE MOST WILL SEE 40S.

TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE
MOUNTAINS...TO LOWER TO MID 70S EAST.

TEMPS MODIFY SOME WED NIGHT WITH 40S MOST PLACES...COOLER IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...THEN WARM AGAIN INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S...WITH WARMEST TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR SW CWA WHILE SE FLOW OUTSIDE
THE WEDGE MAY ENHANCE TEMPS.

WED NIGHT MODIFIES SOME WITH INCREASING CLOUDS WHERE LOWS RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NE STATES ON THURSDAY WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT WESTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO
A PROLONGED EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

MODELS ARE STARTING TO AGREE ON A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
FORMING ACROSS THE SE STATES LATE IN THE WEEK...HOWEVER THERE IS
STILL MAJOR DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT WHICH WILL AFFECT HOW MUCH
MOISTURE CAN GET PULLED UP INTO THE REGION. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE
MUCH DRIER THAN THE ECMWF. DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EASTWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 740 PM EDT SUNDAY...

COLD FRONT NEAR AN MGW-BKW LINE AT THIS HOUR. PRE-FRONTAL ACTIVITY
DISSIPATED FOR THE MOST PART AS IT CROSSED THE ALLEGHANY
FRONT...WITH FINAL LINE OF FRONTAL -SHRA AND PERHAPS ISOLD TSRA
NEAR THE FRONT AT THIS HOUR. MODELS SHOW THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAKE
IT TO THE ALLEGHANY FRONT...THEN DISSIPATE BEFORE MOVING EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. LWB AND ESPECIALLY BLF COULD STILL SEE A BRIEF
SHRA WITH BRIEF IFR VSBY/CIG...BUT THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT IT FOR
THAT. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF SHRA FROM ROA/LYH/DAN AS LITTLE
SUPPORT FOR ACTIVITY TO REACH THOSE AREAS. RETAINED VCSH FOR BCB
FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...EXPECT
TYPICAL WINTERLIKE SETUP WITH CLEARING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND
DEVELOPING MOSTLY MVFR STRATUS DECK TO THE WEST. BCB WILL BE ON
THE EDGE OF VFR TO MVFR OVERNIGHT. LWB...AND ESPECIALLY BLF WILL
SEE MVFR CIGS HANG IN MUCH OF THE DAY MON WITH UPSLOPE WEST FLOW.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TO THE EAST. BCB SHOULD SEE CIGS
IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE 16Z-18Z TIME FRAME. EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD. CANNOT SUPPORT IFR-LIFR FG ADVERTISED BY GFS/NAM MOS TAFS
WITH POTENTIAL STRATUS DECK TO THE WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT AND
DOWNSLOPE WINDS TO THE EAST. WINDS WSW 6-8KTS IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT...BECOMING WNW 6-8KTS BEHIND THE FRONT...INCREASING TO
8-10KTS AFT 14Z WITH LOW END GUSTS.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR IN THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. RIVER VALLEY FOG
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AT NIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH AND COOL AIR
MASS DECOUPLES AND MIN TEMPS LOWER INTO THE 40S...ESPECIALLY AT
LWB/BCB.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...KK/PM
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...KK/RAB



000
FXUS61 KRNK 220245
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1045 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT...AND WILL REACH THE EAST COAST
BY MONDAY MORNING. MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL COVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1045 PM EDT SUNDAY...

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...WINDS WILL INCREASEFROM
THE NORTHWEST...DEWPOINTS TAKING A NOTICEABLE PLUNGE...READINGS
FALLING INTO THE 40S. THIS AIRMASS CHANGE WILL RESULT IN A
NOTICEABLY COOLER FEELING TO THE AIR STARTING MONDAY.

FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING A GENERAL CLEARING TO AREAS EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. UPSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN LINGERING
CLOUDINESS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
HOLDING CLOUDS BANKED UP AGAINST WESTERN SLOPES THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. ONCE THIS TROUGH AXIS TRACKS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
MONDAY AFTERNOON...DRY AIR WILL ERODE MOUNTAIN CLOUDS RETURNING
SUNSHINE. DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE TO KEEP MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES MONDAY. PLAYED HIGH TEMPERATURES
MONDAY CLOSE TO ADJMAV WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 60S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT.

850 MB WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KTS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS
EARLY MONDAY...ESP ALONG THE RIDGE CRESTS WHERE SURFACE GUSTS OF
25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM EDT SUNDAY...

LOOKING AT A DRY AND COOL AIRMASS MON NIGHT-WED...WITH SFC HIGH
SHIFTING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL
SET UP A CLASSIC WEDGE OVER OUR AREA...WHICH AT FIRST WILL BE
CLEAR/SUNNY AND DRY/COOL.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE ECMWF HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A
CLOUDIER...WETTER SOLUTION THAN THE OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS...AND
ATTM LEANING TOWARD A BLEND. THINK POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ENOUGH
SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT AND NE-E FLOW AT THE SFC TO DRAW IN THE SOME
ATLANTIC MOISTURE. FOR NOW WILL LIMIT SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE WED NIGHT...WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS.

FOR TEMPS EXPECT THE COOLER MORNING TO BE TUESDAY MORNING...WHERE
SOME VALLEYS IN SE WV/FAR SW VA MAY DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S
WHILE MOST WILL SEE 40S.

TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE
MOUNTAINS...TO LOWER TO MID 70S EAST.

TEMPS MODIFY SOME WED NIGHT WITH 40S MOST PLACES...COOLER IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...THEN WARM AGAIN INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S...WITH WARMEST TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR SW CWA WHILE SE FLOW OUTSIDE
THE WEDGE MAY ENHANCE TEMPS.

WED NIGHT MODIFIES SOME WITH INCREASING CLOUDS WHERE LOWS RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NE STATES ON THURSDAY WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT WESTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO
A PROLONGED EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

MODELS ARE STARTING TO AGREE ON A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
FORMING ACROSS THE SE STATES LATE IN THE WEEK...HOWEVER THERE IS
STILL MAJOR DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT WHICH WILL AFFECT HOW MUCH
MOISTURE CAN GET PULLED UP INTO THE REGION. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE
MUCH DRIER THAN THE ECMWF. DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EASTWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 740 PM EDT SUNDAY...

COLD FRONT NEAR AN MGW-BKW LINE AT THIS HOUR. PRE-FRONTAL ACTIVITY
DISSIPATED FOR THE MOST PART AS IT CROSSED THE ALLEGHANY
FRONT...WITH FINAL LINE OF FRONTAL -SHRA AND PERHAPS ISOLD TSRA
NEAR THE FRONT AT THIS HOUR. MODELS SHOW THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAKE
IT TO THE ALLEGHANY FRONT...THEN DISSIPATE BEFORE MOVING EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. LWB AND ESPECIALLY BLF COULD STILL SEE A BRIEF
SHRA WITH BRIEF IFR VSBY/CIG...BUT THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT IT FOR
THAT. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF SHRA FROM ROA/LYH/DAN AS LITTLE
SUPPORT FOR ACTIVITY TO REACH THOSE AREAS. RETAINED VCSH FOR BCB
FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...EXPECT
TYPICAL WINTERLIKE SETUP WITH CLEARING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND
DEVELOPING MOSTLY MVFR STRATUS DECK TO THE WEST. BCB WILL BE ON
THE EDGE OF VFR TO MVFR OVERNIGHT. LWB...AND ESPECIALLY BLF WILL
SEE MVFR CIGS HANG IN MUCH OF THE DAY MON WITH UPSLOPE WEST FLOW.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TO THE EAST. BCB SHOULD SEE CIGS
IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE 16Z-18Z TIME FRAME. EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD. CANNOT SUPPORT IFR-LIFR FG ADVERTISED BY GFS/NAM MOS TAFS
WITH POTENTIAL STRATUS DECK TO THE WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT AND
DOWNSLOPE WINDS TO THE EAST. WINDS WSW 6-8KTS IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT...BECOMING WNW 6-8KTS BEHIND THE FRONT...INCREASING TO
8-10KTS AFT 14Z WITH LOW END GUSTS.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR IN THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. RIVER VALLEY FOG
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AT NIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH AND COOL AIR
MASS DECOUPLES AND MIN TEMPS LOWER INTO THE 40S...ESPECIALLY AT
LWB/BCB.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...KK/PM
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...KK/RAB



000
FXUS61 KRNK 220245
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1045 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT...AND WILL REACH THE EAST COAST
BY MONDAY MORNING. MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL COVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1045 PM EDT SUNDAY...

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...WINDS WILL INCREASEFROM
THE NORTHWEST...DEWPOINTS TAKING A NOTICEABLE PLUNGE...READINGS
FALLING INTO THE 40S. THIS AIRMASS CHANGE WILL RESULT IN A
NOTICEABLY COOLER FEELING TO THE AIR STARTING MONDAY.

FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING A GENERAL CLEARING TO AREAS EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. UPSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN LINGERING
CLOUDINESS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
HOLDING CLOUDS BANKED UP AGAINST WESTERN SLOPES THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. ONCE THIS TROUGH AXIS TRACKS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
MONDAY AFTERNOON...DRY AIR WILL ERODE MOUNTAIN CLOUDS RETURNING
SUNSHINE. DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE TO KEEP MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES MONDAY. PLAYED HIGH TEMPERATURES
MONDAY CLOSE TO ADJMAV WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 60S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT.

850 MB WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KTS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS
EARLY MONDAY...ESP ALONG THE RIDGE CRESTS WHERE SURFACE GUSTS OF
25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM EDT SUNDAY...

LOOKING AT A DRY AND COOL AIRMASS MON NIGHT-WED...WITH SFC HIGH
SHIFTING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL
SET UP A CLASSIC WEDGE OVER OUR AREA...WHICH AT FIRST WILL BE
CLEAR/SUNNY AND DRY/COOL.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE ECMWF HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A
CLOUDIER...WETTER SOLUTION THAN THE OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS...AND
ATTM LEANING TOWARD A BLEND. THINK POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ENOUGH
SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT AND NE-E FLOW AT THE SFC TO DRAW IN THE SOME
ATLANTIC MOISTURE. FOR NOW WILL LIMIT SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE WED NIGHT...WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS.

FOR TEMPS EXPECT THE COOLER MORNING TO BE TUESDAY MORNING...WHERE
SOME VALLEYS IN SE WV/FAR SW VA MAY DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S
WHILE MOST WILL SEE 40S.

TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE
MOUNTAINS...TO LOWER TO MID 70S EAST.

TEMPS MODIFY SOME WED NIGHT WITH 40S MOST PLACES...COOLER IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...THEN WARM AGAIN INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S...WITH WARMEST TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR SW CWA WHILE SE FLOW OUTSIDE
THE WEDGE MAY ENHANCE TEMPS.

WED NIGHT MODIFIES SOME WITH INCREASING CLOUDS WHERE LOWS RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NE STATES ON THURSDAY WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT WESTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO
A PROLONGED EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

MODELS ARE STARTING TO AGREE ON A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
FORMING ACROSS THE SE STATES LATE IN THE WEEK...HOWEVER THERE IS
STILL MAJOR DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT WHICH WILL AFFECT HOW MUCH
MOISTURE CAN GET PULLED UP INTO THE REGION. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE
MUCH DRIER THAN THE ECMWF. DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EASTWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 740 PM EDT SUNDAY...

COLD FRONT NEAR AN MGW-BKW LINE AT THIS HOUR. PRE-FRONTAL ACTIVITY
DISSIPATED FOR THE MOST PART AS IT CROSSED THE ALLEGHANY
FRONT...WITH FINAL LINE OF FRONTAL -SHRA AND PERHAPS ISOLD TSRA
NEAR THE FRONT AT THIS HOUR. MODELS SHOW THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAKE
IT TO THE ALLEGHANY FRONT...THEN DISSIPATE BEFORE MOVING EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. LWB AND ESPECIALLY BLF COULD STILL SEE A BRIEF
SHRA WITH BRIEF IFR VSBY/CIG...BUT THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT IT FOR
THAT. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF SHRA FROM ROA/LYH/DAN AS LITTLE
SUPPORT FOR ACTIVITY TO REACH THOSE AREAS. RETAINED VCSH FOR BCB
FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...EXPECT
TYPICAL WINTERLIKE SETUP WITH CLEARING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND
DEVELOPING MOSTLY MVFR STRATUS DECK TO THE WEST. BCB WILL BE ON
THE EDGE OF VFR TO MVFR OVERNIGHT. LWB...AND ESPECIALLY BLF WILL
SEE MVFR CIGS HANG IN MUCH OF THE DAY MON WITH UPSLOPE WEST FLOW.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TO THE EAST. BCB SHOULD SEE CIGS
IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE 16Z-18Z TIME FRAME. EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD. CANNOT SUPPORT IFR-LIFR FG ADVERTISED BY GFS/NAM MOS TAFS
WITH POTENTIAL STRATUS DECK TO THE WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT AND
DOWNSLOPE WINDS TO THE EAST. WINDS WSW 6-8KTS IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT...BECOMING WNW 6-8KTS BEHIND THE FRONT...INCREASING TO
8-10KTS AFT 14Z WITH LOW END GUSTS.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR IN THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. RIVER VALLEY FOG
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AT NIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH AND COOL AIR
MASS DECOUPLES AND MIN TEMPS LOWER INTO THE 40S...ESPECIALLY AT
LWB/BCB.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...KK/PM
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...KK/RAB



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220203
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1003 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE COMBINATION OF DOWNSLOPE DRYING AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
GREATER THAN 5 DEGREES ARE KEEPING THE LOW LEVELS DRY ENOUGH TO
CAUSE PREFRONTAL SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE. THE SFC COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST INSIDE THE WRN VA STATE BORDER AND WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS KEEP BEST
SHOWERS S-SW OF THE FA...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OF 20 PERCENT DUE TO ENHANCED LIFT POTENTIAL ALONG THE SFC
BOUNDARY. LIQUID PRECIP TOTALS WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH ANTICIPATED
ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.05 INCHES OR LESS. LOW TEMPERATURES AT OR
ABOVE 60 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS
OF THE FA...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S EXPECTED WEST OF I-95.

FOR MONDAY...BOTH NAM AND GFS SUGGEST FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN OR SLOW
FOR A SHORT TIME JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. THIS WILL DELAY CLEARING
ACROSS OUR NE NC COUNTIES...BUT PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
CWA. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH
TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW WILL
BRING THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50 (MID
50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST). A SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S (PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES). ANOTHER
COOL NIGHT EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT,,,WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM 45
TO 50 FROM I-95 WESTWARD...TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COAST.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF STILL IN CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT WHEN IT COMES TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR A WAVE TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE
CWA...THEN LIFT NWD/NNWWD INTO THE REGION FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD.
HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE GFS/NAM FOR WEDNESDAY...WHICH SUGGEST A
DRY DAY IS ON TAP...WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND
SLGTLY BLO NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
STAGNANT THRU THE PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY
OF THE OH VALLEY/NE STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH
AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER
TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL
STICK TO 20% POPS FOR NOW. MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WITH 12Z GFS KEEPING ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE 12Z
ECMWF BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED NGT. HI TEMPS WILL
RANGE THRU THE 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 50S NW TO MID
60S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT OVER WEST VIRGINIA WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AROUND 06Z AND 11Z AT ECG. ONLY ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCT PCPN IS EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
HAVE NO MENTION OF PCPN IN THE TAFS. WINDS SHIFT FROM SW TO NW
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LATER TO N. WINDS MAY BE GUSTY FROM
THE N/NE AT TIMES MONDAY AT ORF DUE TO THE EXPOSURE TO THE BAY.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR RENEWED LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING PCPN AND
AVIATION RESTRICTIONS TO ECG AND ORF. AT THIS TIME...THE CHANCES
FOR PCPN ARE LOW. NE WINDS COULD BECOME GUSTY AT ORF ESPECIALLY
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
7 PM UPDATE...EXTENDED SCA INTO MONDAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES BASED ON SWAN/WAVE WATCH. THIS IS DUE TO AN
INCREASE IN THE WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND TO MATCH UP WITH HEADLINES TO THE NORTH. SEAS ARE BARELY
HOLDING ON TO SCA SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES BUT WILL HOLD ON TO SCA
FOR NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 08Z/4 AM. WILL NEED TO CONSIDER SCA IN THE
BAY BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH LATER ISSUANCES AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LO PRES CENTERED JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
CST THIS AFTN WILL TRACK NE OF THE REGION TNGT. AS FAR AS
HEADLINES...SCA OVR ALL CSTL WTRS WILL CONTINUE THRU 4 AM FOR 5-6
FT SEAS DUE TO PROLONGED ERLY FETCH. A COLD FRNT CROSSES THE WTRS
LATE TNGT...WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO STAY JUST SHY OF SCA
CRITERIA POST FRNTAL DUE TO A MARGINAL GRADIENT AND CAA. WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR THIS HOWEVER WITH IT BEING CLOSE AND WINDS OVR THE BAY
EXPECTED TO REACH ~15 KT. SECONDARY SURGE AND HI PRES BLDG N OF
THE AREA MON NGT MAY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS WITH
WINDS JUST SHY OF 20 KT OVR THE BAY...BUT WILL CAP AT AROUND 15 KT
FOR NOW. FOR TUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER PROLONGED
PERIOD OF NE FLOW WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED WAVES/SEAS AND SCA
CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR AT LEAST ALL CSTL WTRS AND THE MOUTH OF THE
BAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ~1.0FT ABOVE NORMAL TODAY FOR ALL
AREAS...AND INTO TONIGHT FOR THE MIDDLE BAY. PREDICTED HIGH TIDE
TONIGHT IS HIGHER THAN AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE TIDAL ANOMALY COULD NUDGE WATER LEVELS AT CAMBRIDGE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 3.0FT MLLW AND NEAR 3.0FT MLLW AT LEWISETTA. THESE
VALUES WOULD FALL JUST SHORT OF MINOR THRESHOLDS. TIDAL DEPARTURES
WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/WRS
NEAR TERM...BMD/WRS
SHORT TERM...JDM/WRS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAS/LSA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ









000
FXUS61 KLWX 220045
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
845 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THEN SHIFT
OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

SFC ANLYS SHOWS CD FNT HAS PUSHED E OF THE BLU RDG AND WL MAKE IT
THRU THE WATERS B4 MDNGT. ISOLD SHRA ONGOING BUT THE SVR THREAT IS
GONE. HIGH PRES WL BUILD INTO THE AREA AFTR MDNGT.

NWLY FLOW SPREADS IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 25 TO
30 MPH.

MIN TEMPS ELEVATED IN MIXING FLOW IN SPITE OF COOLER AIR COMING
IN. MID TO UPR 50S INLAND...LOW TO MID 60S NEARSHORE. UPSLOPE RAIN
SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WEST FROM THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.

A FEW UPSLOPE SPRINKLES WEST FROM THE ALLEGHENY FRONT MONDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE DRY WITH NWLY GUSTS 25 MPH DECREASING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. GOOD MIXING AND 850MB TEMPS OF 4-6C SUGGEST MAX
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE GRADIENT
SLACKING PARTICULARLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE...MIN TEMPS COULD BE IN THE MID 30S IN WRN
VALLEYS AND THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. SINCE THIS IS THE SHELTER
TEMPERATURE (ABOUT SIX FEET OFF THE GROUND) GROUND TEMPERATURES
COULD HIT FREEZING AND THUS CAUSE FROST. A MENTION FOR FROST WILL
BE PUT IN THE HWO FOR OUT THERE. OTHERWISE...SUB NORMAL MIN TEMPS
WITH LOW TO MID 40S PIEDMONT AND WEST...UPR 40S INLAND COASTAL LOW
LANDS AND LOW TO MID 50S URBAN/NEARSHORE.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS WITH NLY FLOW AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC AS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS
WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW IN A
TIGHTENING GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY...WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER IN A MARITIME AIRMASS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK.

THE OPERATIONAL 00Z ECMWF MODEL WAS DEFINITELY THE MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE TO
THE SOUTH IN THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIMEFRAME...BUT DOES NOT HAVE
OVERWHELMING SUPPORT FROM ITS OWN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE FOR PERIODS OF DRIZZLE DURING THIS PERIOD GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW...BUT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW WELL TO THE SOUTH APPEARS RELATIVELY LOW AT THE MOMENT.
HAVE KEPT POPS VERY LOW FOR THIS REASON.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WEAKENS AND THE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE...UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL RE-STRENGTHEN AND
RESULT IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WITH A WARMING TREND
EXPECTED BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

NWLY FLOW GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. VFR AND NLY FLOW THEN TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING
NORTH OF THE AREA.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS APPEAR INCREASINGLY LIKELY WITH LOW CLOUDS/FOG
MAKING A VISIT TO THE AREA WED-THU NIGHT. WINDS GENERALLY EASTERLY
10-15 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...

SCA THROUGH MONDAY WITH GUSTS IN THE MORNING AROUND 25 KT...
SLOWLY EASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

NLY THEN NELY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS NORTH TUESDAY.

WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR SCA LEVELS DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK
IN A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A DEPARTING HIGH TO THE
NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE DRIFTING INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS FROM THE
ATLANTIC. WINDS/WAVES SUBSIDE AS THE TWO PRESSURE SYSTEMS WEAKEN AND
MOVE AWAY BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL INCREASE IN PERSISTENT MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY WHICH ALONG WITH A NEW MOON MAY CAUSE COASTAL
FLOODING AROUND TIMES OF HIGH TIDE STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...BAJ/DFH








000
FXUS61 KLWX 220045
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
845 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THEN SHIFT
OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

SFC ANLYS SHOWS CD FNT HAS PUSHED E OF THE BLU RDG AND WL MAKE IT
THRU THE WATERS B4 MDNGT. ISOLD SHRA ONGOING BUT THE SVR THREAT IS
GONE. HIGH PRES WL BUILD INTO THE AREA AFTR MDNGT.

NWLY FLOW SPREADS IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 25 TO
30 MPH.

MIN TEMPS ELEVATED IN MIXING FLOW IN SPITE OF COOLER AIR COMING
IN. MID TO UPR 50S INLAND...LOW TO MID 60S NEARSHORE. UPSLOPE RAIN
SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WEST FROM THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.

A FEW UPSLOPE SPRINKLES WEST FROM THE ALLEGHENY FRONT MONDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE DRY WITH NWLY GUSTS 25 MPH DECREASING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. GOOD MIXING AND 850MB TEMPS OF 4-6C SUGGEST MAX
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE GRADIENT
SLACKING PARTICULARLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE...MIN TEMPS COULD BE IN THE MID 30S IN WRN
VALLEYS AND THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. SINCE THIS IS THE SHELTER
TEMPERATURE (ABOUT SIX FEET OFF THE GROUND) GROUND TEMPERATURES
COULD HIT FREEZING AND THUS CAUSE FROST. A MENTION FOR FROST WILL
BE PUT IN THE HWO FOR OUT THERE. OTHERWISE...SUB NORMAL MIN TEMPS
WITH LOW TO MID 40S PIEDMONT AND WEST...UPR 40S INLAND COASTAL LOW
LANDS AND LOW TO MID 50S URBAN/NEARSHORE.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS WITH NLY FLOW AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC AS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS
WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW IN A
TIGHTENING GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY...WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER IN A MARITIME AIRMASS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK.

THE OPERATIONAL 00Z ECMWF MODEL WAS DEFINITELY THE MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE TO
THE SOUTH IN THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIMEFRAME...BUT DOES NOT HAVE
OVERWHELMING SUPPORT FROM ITS OWN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE FOR PERIODS OF DRIZZLE DURING THIS PERIOD GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW...BUT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW WELL TO THE SOUTH APPEARS RELATIVELY LOW AT THE MOMENT.
HAVE KEPT POPS VERY LOW FOR THIS REASON.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WEAKENS AND THE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE...UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL RE-STRENGTHEN AND
RESULT IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WITH A WARMING TREND
EXPECTED BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

NWLY FLOW GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. VFR AND NLY FLOW THEN TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING
NORTH OF THE AREA.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS APPEAR INCREASINGLY LIKELY WITH LOW CLOUDS/FOG
MAKING A VISIT TO THE AREA WED-THU NIGHT. WINDS GENERALLY EASTERLY
10-15 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...

SCA THROUGH MONDAY WITH GUSTS IN THE MORNING AROUND 25 KT...
SLOWLY EASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

NLY THEN NELY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS NORTH TUESDAY.

WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR SCA LEVELS DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK
IN A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A DEPARTING HIGH TO THE
NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE DRIFTING INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS FROM THE
ATLANTIC. WINDS/WAVES SUBSIDE AS THE TWO PRESSURE SYSTEMS WEAKEN AND
MOVE AWAY BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL INCREASE IN PERSISTENT MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY WHICH ALONG WITH A NEW MOON MAY CAUSE COASTAL
FLOODING AROUND TIMES OF HIGH TIDE STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...BAJ/DFH







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220017
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
817 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH MOVING NEWD AWAY FROM THE
COAST...TAKING CLOUDS AND RAIN WITH IT. COLD FRONT APPROACHING
QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. RAINFALL WITH THIS FRONT NOT IMPRESSIVE ON
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY...AND MODELS SUGGEST COVERAGE UNLIKELY TO
CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY AS FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING. HAVE GONE NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHC POPS WITH
THE FRONT. HAVE MAINTAINED SLGT CHC FOR TSTMS THROUGH MID
EVENING...AS AIRMASS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION...AND
CURRENT RADAR ECHOES HAVE A CONVECTIVE APPEARANCE. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 60 DEGREES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
SECTIONS...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S EXPECTED WEST OF I-95.

BOTH NAM AND GFS SUGGEST FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN OR SLOW FOR A SHORT
TIME JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. THIS WILL DELAY CLEARING ACROSS OUR NE
NC COUNTIES...BUT PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW WILL
BRING THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50 (MID
50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST). A SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S (PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES). ANOTHER
COOL NIGHT EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT,,,WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM 45
TO 50 FROM I-95 WESTWARD...TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COAST.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF STILL IN CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT WHEN IT COMES TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR A WAVE TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE
CWA...THEN LIFT NWD/NNWWD INTO THE REGION FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD.
HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE GFS/NAM FOR WEDNESDAY...WHICH SUGGEST A
DRY DAY IS ON TAP...WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND
SLGTLY BLO NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
STAGNANT THRU THE PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY
OF THE OH VALLEY/NE STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH
AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER
TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL
STICK TO 20% POPS FOR NOW. MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WITH 12Z GFS KEEPING ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE 12Z
ECMWF BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED NGT. HI TEMPS WILL
RANGE THRU THE 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 50S NW TO MID
60S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT OVER WEST VIRGINIA WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AROUND 06Z AND 11Z AT ECG. ONLY ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCT PCPN IS EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
HAVE NO MENTION OF PCPN IN THE TAFS. WINDS SHIFT FROM SW TO NW
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LATER TO N. WINDS MAY BE GUSTY FROM
THE N/NE AT TIMES MONDAY AT ORF DUE TO THE EXPOSURE TO THE BAY.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR RENEWED LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING PCPN AND
AVIATION RESTRICTIONS TO ECG AND ORF. AT THIS TIME...THE CHANCES
FOR PCPN ARE LOW. NE WINDS COULD BECOME GUSTY AT ORF ESPECIALLY
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
7 PM UPDATE...EXTENDED SCA INTO MONDAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES BASED ON SWAN/WAVE WATCH. THIS IS DUE TO AN
INCREASE IN THE WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND TO MATCH UP WITH HEADLINES TO THE NORTH. SEAS ARE BARELY
HOLDING ON TO SCA SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES BUT WILL HOLD ON TO SCA
FOR NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 08Z/4 AM. WILL NEED TO CONSIDER SCA IN THE
BAY BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH LATER ISSUANCES AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LO PRES CENTERED JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
CST THIS AFTN WILL TRACK NE OF THE REGION TNGT. AS FAR AS
HEADLINES...SCA OVR ALL CSTL WTRS WILL CONTINUE THRU 4 AM FOR 5-6
FT SEAS DUE TO PROLONGED ERLY FETCH. A COLD FRNT CROSSES THE WTRS
LATE TNGT...WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO STAY JUST SHY OF SCA
CRITERIA POST FRNTAL DUE TO A MARGINAL GRADIENT AND CAA. WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR THIS HOWEVER WITH IT BEING CLOSE AND WINDS OVR THE BAY
EXPECTED TO REACH ~15 KT. SECONDARY SURGE AND HI PRES BLDG N OF
THE AREA MON NGT MAY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS WITH
WINDS JUST SHY OF 20 KT OVR THE BAY...BUT WILL CAP AT AROUND 15 KT
FOR NOW. FOR TUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER PROLONGED
PERIOD OF NE FLOW WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED WAVES/SEAS AND SCA
CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR AT LEAST ALL CSTL WTRS AND THE MOUTH OF THE
BAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ~1.0FT ABOVE NORMAL TODAY FOR ALL
AREAS...AND INTO TONIGHT FOR THE MIDDLE BAY. PREDICTED HIGH TIDE
TONIGHT IS HIGHER THAN AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE TIDAL ANOMALY COULD NUDGE WATER LEVELS AT CAMBRIDGE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 3.0FT MLLW AND NEAR 3.0FT MLLW AT LEWISETTA. THESE
VALUES WOULD FALL JUST SHORT OF MINOR THRESHOLDS. TIDAL DEPARTURES
WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/WRS
NEAR TERM...WRS
SHORT TERM...JDM/WRS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAS/LSA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220017
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
817 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH MOVING NEWD AWAY FROM THE
COAST...TAKING CLOUDS AND RAIN WITH IT. COLD FRONT APPROACHING
QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. RAINFALL WITH THIS FRONT NOT IMPRESSIVE ON
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY...AND MODELS SUGGEST COVERAGE UNLIKELY TO
CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY AS FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING. HAVE GONE NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHC POPS WITH
THE FRONT. HAVE MAINTAINED SLGT CHC FOR TSTMS THROUGH MID
EVENING...AS AIRMASS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION...AND
CURRENT RADAR ECHOES HAVE A CONVECTIVE APPEARANCE. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 60 DEGREES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
SECTIONS...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S EXPECTED WEST OF I-95.

BOTH NAM AND GFS SUGGEST FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN OR SLOW FOR A SHORT
TIME JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. THIS WILL DELAY CLEARING ACROSS OUR NE
NC COUNTIES...BUT PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW WILL
BRING THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50 (MID
50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST). A SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S (PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES). ANOTHER
COOL NIGHT EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT,,,WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM 45
TO 50 FROM I-95 WESTWARD...TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COAST.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF STILL IN CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT WHEN IT COMES TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR A WAVE TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE
CWA...THEN LIFT NWD/NNWWD INTO THE REGION FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD.
HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE GFS/NAM FOR WEDNESDAY...WHICH SUGGEST A
DRY DAY IS ON TAP...WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND
SLGTLY BLO NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
STAGNANT THRU THE PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY
OF THE OH VALLEY/NE STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH
AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER
TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL
STICK TO 20% POPS FOR NOW. MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WITH 12Z GFS KEEPING ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE 12Z
ECMWF BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED NGT. HI TEMPS WILL
RANGE THRU THE 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 50S NW TO MID
60S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT OVER WEST VIRGINIA WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AROUND 06Z AND 11Z AT ECG. ONLY ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCT PCPN IS EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
HAVE NO MENTION OF PCPN IN THE TAFS. WINDS SHIFT FROM SW TO NW
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LATER TO N. WINDS MAY BE GUSTY FROM
THE N/NE AT TIMES MONDAY AT ORF DUE TO THE EXPOSURE TO THE BAY.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR RENEWED LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING PCPN AND
AVIATION RESTRICTIONS TO ECG AND ORF. AT THIS TIME...THE CHANCES
FOR PCPN ARE LOW. NE WINDS COULD BECOME GUSTY AT ORF ESPECIALLY
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
7 PM UPDATE...EXTENDED SCA INTO MONDAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES BASED ON SWAN/WAVE WATCH. THIS IS DUE TO AN
INCREASE IN THE WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND TO MATCH UP WITH HEADLINES TO THE NORTH. SEAS ARE BARELY
HOLDING ON TO SCA SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES BUT WILL HOLD ON TO SCA
FOR NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 08Z/4 AM. WILL NEED TO CONSIDER SCA IN THE
BAY BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH LATER ISSUANCES AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LO PRES CENTERED JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
CST THIS AFTN WILL TRACK NE OF THE REGION TNGT. AS FAR AS
HEADLINES...SCA OVR ALL CSTL WTRS WILL CONTINUE THRU 4 AM FOR 5-6
FT SEAS DUE TO PROLONGED ERLY FETCH. A COLD FRNT CROSSES THE WTRS
LATE TNGT...WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO STAY JUST SHY OF SCA
CRITERIA POST FRNTAL DUE TO A MARGINAL GRADIENT AND CAA. WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR THIS HOWEVER WITH IT BEING CLOSE AND WINDS OVR THE BAY
EXPECTED TO REACH ~15 KT. SECONDARY SURGE AND HI PRES BLDG N OF
THE AREA MON NGT MAY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS WITH
WINDS JUST SHY OF 20 KT OVR THE BAY...BUT WILL CAP AT AROUND 15 KT
FOR NOW. FOR TUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER PROLONGED
PERIOD OF NE FLOW WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED WAVES/SEAS AND SCA
CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR AT LEAST ALL CSTL WTRS AND THE MOUTH OF THE
BAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ~1.0FT ABOVE NORMAL TODAY FOR ALL
AREAS...AND INTO TONIGHT FOR THE MIDDLE BAY. PREDICTED HIGH TIDE
TONIGHT IS HIGHER THAN AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE TIDAL ANOMALY COULD NUDGE WATER LEVELS AT CAMBRIDGE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 3.0FT MLLW AND NEAR 3.0FT MLLW AT LEWISETTA. THESE
VALUES WOULD FALL JUST SHORT OF MINOR THRESHOLDS. TIDAL DEPARTURES
WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/WRS
NEAR TERM...WRS
SHORT TERM...JDM/WRS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAS/LSA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS61 KRNK 212354
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
754 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT...AND WILL REACH THE EAST COAST
BY MONDAY MORNING. MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL COVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 331 PM EDT SUNDAY...

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.  A
COLD FRONT ALONG THE OHIO RIVER WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND
REACH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN MONDAY. WITH SOLAR HEATING...THERE IS
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MLCAPE AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT TO CREATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SWODY1
HIGHLIGHT A 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS.

THE FRONT COMES THROUGH OUR AREA BETWEEN 00Z/8PM AND 06Z/2AM. DECENT
PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO
AROUND +6 IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA BY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECTING
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE WESTERN UPSLOPE AREA OVERNIGHT.
SHAPED LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HOLDING CLOUDS BANKED UP AGAINST WESTERN
SLOPES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ONCE THIS TROUGH AXIS TRACKS TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON...DRY AIR WILL ERODE MOUNTAIN
CLOUDS RETURNING SUNSHINE. DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW ANTICIPATED EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO KEEP MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES MONDAY. PLAYED HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY CLOSE TO ADJMAV WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 60S
IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM EDT SUNDAY...

LOOKING AT A DRY AND COOL AIRMASS MON NIGHT-WED...WITH SFC HIGH
SHIFTING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL
SET UP A CLASSIC WEDGE OVER OUR AREA...WHICH AT FIRST WILL BE
CLEAR/SUNNY AND DRY/COOL.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE ECMWF HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A
CLOUDIER...WETTER SOLUTION THAN THE OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS...AND
ATTM LEANING TOWARD A BLEND. THINK POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ENOUGH
SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT AND NE-E FLOW AT THE SFC TO DRAW IN THE SOME
ATLANTIC MOISTURE. FOR NOW WILL LIMIT SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE WED NIGHT...WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS.

FOR TEMPS EXPECT THE COOLER MORNING TO BE TUESDAY MORNING...WHERE
SOME VALLEYS IN SE WV/FAR SW VA MAY DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S
WHILE MOST WILL SEE 40S.

TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE
MOUNTAINS...TO LOWER TO MID 70S EAST.

TEMPS MODIFY SOME WED NIGHT WITH 40S MOST PLACES...COOLER IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...THEN WARM AGAIN INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S...WITH WARMEST TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR SW CWA WHILE SE FLOW OUTSIDE
THE WEDGE MAY ENHANCE TEMPS.

WED NIGHT MODIFIES SOME WITH INCREASING CLOUDS WHERE LOWS RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NE STATES ON THURSDAY WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT WESTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO
A PROLONGED EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

MODELS ARE STARTING TO AGREE ON A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
FORMING ACROSS THE SE STATES LATE IN THE WEEK...HOWEVER THERE IS
STILL MAJOR DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT WHICH WILL AFFECT HOW MUCH
MOISTURE CAN GET PULLED UP INTO THE REGION. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE
MUCH DRIER THAN THE ECMWF. DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EASTWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 740 PM EDT SUNDAY...

COLD FRONT NEAR AN MGW-BKW LINE AT THIS HOUR. PRE-FRONTAL ACTIVITY
DISSIPATED FOR THE MOST PART AS IT CROSSED THE ALLEGHANY
FRONT...WITH FINAL LINE OF FRONTAL -SHRA AND PERHAPS ISOLD TSRA
NEAR THE FRONT AT THIS HOUR. MODELS SHOW THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAKE
IT TO THE ALLEGHANY FRONT...THEN DISSIPATE BEFORE MOVING EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. LWB AND ESPECIALLY BLF COULD STILL SEE A BRIEF
SHRA WITH BRIEF IFR VSBY/CIG...BUT THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT IT FOR
THAT. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF SHRA FROM ROA/LYH/DAN AS LITTLE
SUPPORT FOR ACTIVITY TO REACH THOSE AREAS. RETAINED VCSH FOR BCB
FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...EXPECT
TYPICAL WINTERLIKE SETUP WITH CLEARING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND
DEVELOPING MOSTLY MVFR STRATUS DECK TO THE WEST. BCB WILL BE ON
THE EDGE OF VFR TO MVFR OVERNIGHT. LWB...AND ESPECIALLY BLF WILL
SEE MVFR CIGS HANG IN MUCH OF THE DAY MON WITH UPSLOPE WEST FLOW.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TO THE EAST. BCB SHOULD SEE CIGS
IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE 16Z-18Z TIME FRAME. EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD. CANNOT SUPPORT IFR-LIFR FG ADVERTISED BY GFS/NAM MOS TAFS
WITH POTENTIAL STRATUS DECK TO THE WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT AND
DOWNSLOPE WINDS TO THE EAST. WINDS WSW 6-8KTS IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT...BECOMING WNW 6-8KTS BEHIND THE FRONT...INCREASING TO
8-10KTS AFT 14Z WITH LOW END GUSTS.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR IN THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. RIVER VALLEY FOG
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AT NIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH AND COOL AIR
MASS DECOUPLES AND MIN TEMPS LOWER INTO THE 40S...ESPECIALLY AT
LWB/BCB.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...KK/RAB



000
FXUS61 KRNK 212354
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
754 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT...AND WILL REACH THE EAST COAST
BY MONDAY MORNING. MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL COVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 331 PM EDT SUNDAY...

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.  A
COLD FRONT ALONG THE OHIO RIVER WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND
REACH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN MONDAY. WITH SOLAR HEATING...THERE IS
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MLCAPE AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT TO CREATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SWODY1
HIGHLIGHT A 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS.

THE FRONT COMES THROUGH OUR AREA BETWEEN 00Z/8PM AND 06Z/2AM. DECENT
PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO
AROUND +6 IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA BY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECTING
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE WESTERN UPSLOPE AREA OVERNIGHT.
SHAPED LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HOLDING CLOUDS BANKED UP AGAINST WESTERN
SLOPES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ONCE THIS TROUGH AXIS TRACKS TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON...DRY AIR WILL ERODE MOUNTAIN
CLOUDS RETURNING SUNSHINE. DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW ANTICIPATED EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO KEEP MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES MONDAY. PLAYED HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY CLOSE TO ADJMAV WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 60S
IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM EDT SUNDAY...

LOOKING AT A DRY AND COOL AIRMASS MON NIGHT-WED...WITH SFC HIGH
SHIFTING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL
SET UP A CLASSIC WEDGE OVER OUR AREA...WHICH AT FIRST WILL BE
CLEAR/SUNNY AND DRY/COOL.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE ECMWF HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A
CLOUDIER...WETTER SOLUTION THAN THE OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS...AND
ATTM LEANING TOWARD A BLEND. THINK POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ENOUGH
SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT AND NE-E FLOW AT THE SFC TO DRAW IN THE SOME
ATLANTIC MOISTURE. FOR NOW WILL LIMIT SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE WED NIGHT...WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS.

FOR TEMPS EXPECT THE COOLER MORNING TO BE TUESDAY MORNING...WHERE
SOME VALLEYS IN SE WV/FAR SW VA MAY DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S
WHILE MOST WILL SEE 40S.

TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE
MOUNTAINS...TO LOWER TO MID 70S EAST.

TEMPS MODIFY SOME WED NIGHT WITH 40S MOST PLACES...COOLER IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...THEN WARM AGAIN INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S...WITH WARMEST TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR SW CWA WHILE SE FLOW OUTSIDE
THE WEDGE MAY ENHANCE TEMPS.

WED NIGHT MODIFIES SOME WITH INCREASING CLOUDS WHERE LOWS RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NE STATES ON THURSDAY WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT WESTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO
A PROLONGED EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

MODELS ARE STARTING TO AGREE ON A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
FORMING ACROSS THE SE STATES LATE IN THE WEEK...HOWEVER THERE IS
STILL MAJOR DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT WHICH WILL AFFECT HOW MUCH
MOISTURE CAN GET PULLED UP INTO THE REGION. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE
MUCH DRIER THAN THE ECMWF. DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EASTWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 740 PM EDT SUNDAY...

COLD FRONT NEAR AN MGW-BKW LINE AT THIS HOUR. PRE-FRONTAL ACTIVITY
DISSIPATED FOR THE MOST PART AS IT CROSSED THE ALLEGHANY
FRONT...WITH FINAL LINE OF FRONTAL -SHRA AND PERHAPS ISOLD TSRA
NEAR THE FRONT AT THIS HOUR. MODELS SHOW THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAKE
IT TO THE ALLEGHANY FRONT...THEN DISSIPATE BEFORE MOVING EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. LWB AND ESPECIALLY BLF COULD STILL SEE A BRIEF
SHRA WITH BRIEF IFR VSBY/CIG...BUT THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT IT FOR
THAT. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF SHRA FROM ROA/LYH/DAN AS LITTLE
SUPPORT FOR ACTIVITY TO REACH THOSE AREAS. RETAINED VCSH FOR BCB
FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...EXPECT
TYPICAL WINTERLIKE SETUP WITH CLEARING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND
DEVELOPING MOSTLY MVFR STRATUS DECK TO THE WEST. BCB WILL BE ON
THE EDGE OF VFR TO MVFR OVERNIGHT. LWB...AND ESPECIALLY BLF WILL
SEE MVFR CIGS HANG IN MUCH OF THE DAY MON WITH UPSLOPE WEST FLOW.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TO THE EAST. BCB SHOULD SEE CIGS
IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE 16Z-18Z TIME FRAME. EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD. CANNOT SUPPORT IFR-LIFR FG ADVERTISED BY GFS/NAM MOS TAFS
WITH POTENTIAL STRATUS DECK TO THE WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT AND
DOWNSLOPE WINDS TO THE EAST. WINDS WSW 6-8KTS IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT...BECOMING WNW 6-8KTS BEHIND THE FRONT...INCREASING TO
8-10KTS AFT 14Z WITH LOW END GUSTS.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR IN THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. RIVER VALLEY FOG
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AT NIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH AND COOL AIR
MASS DECOUPLES AND MIN TEMPS LOWER INTO THE 40S...ESPECIALLY AT
LWB/BCB.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...KK/RAB



000
FXUS61 KRNK 212354
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
754 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT...AND WILL REACH THE EAST COAST
BY MONDAY MORNING. MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL COVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 331 PM EDT SUNDAY...

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.  A
COLD FRONT ALONG THE OHIO RIVER WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND
REACH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN MONDAY. WITH SOLAR HEATING...THERE IS
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MLCAPE AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT TO CREATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SWODY1
HIGHLIGHT A 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS.

THE FRONT COMES THROUGH OUR AREA BETWEEN 00Z/8PM AND 06Z/2AM. DECENT
PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO
AROUND +6 IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA BY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECTING
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE WESTERN UPSLOPE AREA OVERNIGHT.
SHAPED LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HOLDING CLOUDS BANKED UP AGAINST WESTERN
SLOPES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ONCE THIS TROUGH AXIS TRACKS TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON...DRY AIR WILL ERODE MOUNTAIN
CLOUDS RETURNING SUNSHINE. DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW ANTICIPATED EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO KEEP MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES MONDAY. PLAYED HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY CLOSE TO ADJMAV WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 60S
IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM EDT SUNDAY...

LOOKING AT A DRY AND COOL AIRMASS MON NIGHT-WED...WITH SFC HIGH
SHIFTING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL
SET UP A CLASSIC WEDGE OVER OUR AREA...WHICH AT FIRST WILL BE
CLEAR/SUNNY AND DRY/COOL.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE ECMWF HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A
CLOUDIER...WETTER SOLUTION THAN THE OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS...AND
ATTM LEANING TOWARD A BLEND. THINK POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ENOUGH
SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT AND NE-E FLOW AT THE SFC TO DRAW IN THE SOME
ATLANTIC MOISTURE. FOR NOW WILL LIMIT SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE WED NIGHT...WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS.

FOR TEMPS EXPECT THE COOLER MORNING TO BE TUESDAY MORNING...WHERE
SOME VALLEYS IN SE WV/FAR SW VA MAY DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S
WHILE MOST WILL SEE 40S.

TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE
MOUNTAINS...TO LOWER TO MID 70S EAST.

TEMPS MODIFY SOME WED NIGHT WITH 40S MOST PLACES...COOLER IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...THEN WARM AGAIN INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S...WITH WARMEST TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR SW CWA WHILE SE FLOW OUTSIDE
THE WEDGE MAY ENHANCE TEMPS.

WED NIGHT MODIFIES SOME WITH INCREASING CLOUDS WHERE LOWS RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NE STATES ON THURSDAY WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT WESTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO
A PROLONGED EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

MODELS ARE STARTING TO AGREE ON A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
FORMING ACROSS THE SE STATES LATE IN THE WEEK...HOWEVER THERE IS
STILL MAJOR DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT WHICH WILL AFFECT HOW MUCH
MOISTURE CAN GET PULLED UP INTO THE REGION. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE
MUCH DRIER THAN THE ECMWF. DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EASTWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 740 PM EDT SUNDAY...

COLD FRONT NEAR AN MGW-BKW LINE AT THIS HOUR. PRE-FRONTAL ACTIVITY
DISSIPATED FOR THE MOST PART AS IT CROSSED THE ALLEGHANY
FRONT...WITH FINAL LINE OF FRONTAL -SHRA AND PERHAPS ISOLD TSRA
NEAR THE FRONT AT THIS HOUR. MODELS SHOW THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAKE
IT TO THE ALLEGHANY FRONT...THEN DISSIPATE BEFORE MOVING EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. LWB AND ESPECIALLY BLF COULD STILL SEE A BRIEF
SHRA WITH BRIEF IFR VSBY/CIG...BUT THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT IT FOR
THAT. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF SHRA FROM ROA/LYH/DAN AS LITTLE
SUPPORT FOR ACTIVITY TO REACH THOSE AREAS. RETAINED VCSH FOR BCB
FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...EXPECT
TYPICAL WINTERLIKE SETUP WITH CLEARING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND
DEVELOPING MOSTLY MVFR STRATUS DECK TO THE WEST. BCB WILL BE ON
THE EDGE OF VFR TO MVFR OVERNIGHT. LWB...AND ESPECIALLY BLF WILL
SEE MVFR CIGS HANG IN MUCH OF THE DAY MON WITH UPSLOPE WEST FLOW.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TO THE EAST. BCB SHOULD SEE CIGS
IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE 16Z-18Z TIME FRAME. EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD. CANNOT SUPPORT IFR-LIFR FG ADVERTISED BY GFS/NAM MOS TAFS
WITH POTENTIAL STRATUS DECK TO THE WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT AND
DOWNSLOPE WINDS TO THE EAST. WINDS WSW 6-8KTS IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT...BECOMING WNW 6-8KTS BEHIND THE FRONT...INCREASING TO
8-10KTS AFT 14Z WITH LOW END GUSTS.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR IN THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. RIVER VALLEY FOG
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AT NIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH AND COOL AIR
MASS DECOUPLES AND MIN TEMPS LOWER INTO THE 40S...ESPECIALLY AT
LWB/BCB.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...KK/RAB



000
FXUS61 KRNK 212354
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
754 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT...AND WILL REACH THE EAST COAST
BY MONDAY MORNING. MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL COVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 331 PM EDT SUNDAY...

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.  A
COLD FRONT ALONG THE OHIO RIVER WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND
REACH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN MONDAY. WITH SOLAR HEATING...THERE IS
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MLCAPE AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT TO CREATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SWODY1
HIGHLIGHT A 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS.

THE FRONT COMES THROUGH OUR AREA BETWEEN 00Z/8PM AND 06Z/2AM. DECENT
PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO
AROUND +6 IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA BY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECTING
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE WESTERN UPSLOPE AREA OVERNIGHT.
SHAPED LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HOLDING CLOUDS BANKED UP AGAINST WESTERN
SLOPES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ONCE THIS TROUGH AXIS TRACKS TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON...DRY AIR WILL ERODE MOUNTAIN
CLOUDS RETURNING SUNSHINE. DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW ANTICIPATED EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO KEEP MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES MONDAY. PLAYED HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY CLOSE TO ADJMAV WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 60S
IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM EDT SUNDAY...

LOOKING AT A DRY AND COOL AIRMASS MON NIGHT-WED...WITH SFC HIGH
SHIFTING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL
SET UP A CLASSIC WEDGE OVER OUR AREA...WHICH AT FIRST WILL BE
CLEAR/SUNNY AND DRY/COOL.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE ECMWF HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A
CLOUDIER...WETTER SOLUTION THAN THE OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS...AND
ATTM LEANING TOWARD A BLEND. THINK POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ENOUGH
SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT AND NE-E FLOW AT THE SFC TO DRAW IN THE SOME
ATLANTIC MOISTURE. FOR NOW WILL LIMIT SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE WED NIGHT...WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS.

FOR TEMPS EXPECT THE COOLER MORNING TO BE TUESDAY MORNING...WHERE
SOME VALLEYS IN SE WV/FAR SW VA MAY DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S
WHILE MOST WILL SEE 40S.

TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE
MOUNTAINS...TO LOWER TO MID 70S EAST.

TEMPS MODIFY SOME WED NIGHT WITH 40S MOST PLACES...COOLER IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...THEN WARM AGAIN INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S...WITH WARMEST TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR SW CWA WHILE SE FLOW OUTSIDE
THE WEDGE MAY ENHANCE TEMPS.

WED NIGHT MODIFIES SOME WITH INCREASING CLOUDS WHERE LOWS RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NE STATES ON THURSDAY WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT WESTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO
A PROLONGED EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

MODELS ARE STARTING TO AGREE ON A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
FORMING ACROSS THE SE STATES LATE IN THE WEEK...HOWEVER THERE IS
STILL MAJOR DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT WHICH WILL AFFECT HOW MUCH
MOISTURE CAN GET PULLED UP INTO THE REGION. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE
MUCH DRIER THAN THE ECMWF. DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EASTWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 740 PM EDT SUNDAY...

COLD FRONT NEAR AN MGW-BKW LINE AT THIS HOUR. PRE-FRONTAL ACTIVITY
DISSIPATED FOR THE MOST PART AS IT CROSSED THE ALLEGHANY
FRONT...WITH FINAL LINE OF FRONTAL -SHRA AND PERHAPS ISOLD TSRA
NEAR THE FRONT AT THIS HOUR. MODELS SHOW THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAKE
IT TO THE ALLEGHANY FRONT...THEN DISSIPATE BEFORE MOVING EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. LWB AND ESPECIALLY BLF COULD STILL SEE A BRIEF
SHRA WITH BRIEF IFR VSBY/CIG...BUT THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT IT FOR
THAT. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF SHRA FROM ROA/LYH/DAN AS LITTLE
SUPPORT FOR ACTIVITY TO REACH THOSE AREAS. RETAINED VCSH FOR BCB
FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...EXPECT
TYPICAL WINTERLIKE SETUP WITH CLEARING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND
DEVELOPING MOSTLY MVFR STRATUS DECK TO THE WEST. BCB WILL BE ON
THE EDGE OF VFR TO MVFR OVERNIGHT. LWB...AND ESPECIALLY BLF WILL
SEE MVFR CIGS HANG IN MUCH OF THE DAY MON WITH UPSLOPE WEST FLOW.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TO THE EAST. BCB SHOULD SEE CIGS
IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE 16Z-18Z TIME FRAME. EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD. CANNOT SUPPORT IFR-LIFR FG ADVERTISED BY GFS/NAM MOS TAFS
WITH POTENTIAL STRATUS DECK TO THE WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT AND
DOWNSLOPE WINDS TO THE EAST. WINDS WSW 6-8KTS IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT...BECOMING WNW 6-8KTS BEHIND THE FRONT...INCREASING TO
8-10KTS AFT 14Z WITH LOW END GUSTS.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR IN THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. RIVER VALLEY FOG
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AT NIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH AND COOL AIR
MASS DECOUPLES AND MIN TEMPS LOWER INTO THE 40S...ESPECIALLY AT
LWB/BCB.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...KK/RAB



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 212347
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
747 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH MOVING NEWD AWAY FROM THE
COAST...TAKING CLOUDS AND RAIN WITH IT. COLD FRONT APPROACHING
QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. RAINFALL WITH THIS FRONT NOT IMPRESSIVE ON
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY...AND MODELS SUGGEST COVERAGE UNLIKELY TO
CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY AS FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING. HAVE GONE NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHC POPS WITH
THE FRONT. HAVE MAINTAINED SLGT CHC FOR TSTMS THROUGH MID
EVENING...AS AIRMASS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION...AND
CURRENT RADAR ECHOES HAVE A CONVECTIVE APPEARANCE. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 60 DEGREES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
SECTIONS...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S EXPECTED WEST OF I-95.

BOTH NAM AND GFS SUGGEST FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN OR SLOW FOR A SHORT
TIME JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. THIS WILL DELAY CLEARING ACROSS OUR NE
NC COUNTIES...BUT PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW WILL
BRING THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50 (MID
50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST). A SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S (PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES). ANOTHER
COOL NIGHT EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT,,,WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM 45
TO 50 FROM I-95 WESTWARD...TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COAST.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF STILL IN CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT WHEN IT COMES TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR A WAVE TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE
CWA...THEN LIFT NWD/NNWWD INTO THE REGION FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD.
HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE GFS/NAM FOR WEDNESDAY...WHICH SUGGEST A
DRY DAY IS ON TAP...WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND
SLGTLY BLO NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
STAGNANT THRU THE PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY
OF THE OH VALLEY/NE STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH
AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER
TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL
STICK TO 20% POPS FOR NOW. MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WITH 12Z GFS KEEPING ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE 12Z
ECMWF BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED NGT. HI TEMPS WILL
RANGE THRU THE 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 50S NW TO MID
60S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT OVER WEST VIRGINIA WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AROUND 06Z AND 11Z AT ECG. ONLY ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCT PCPN IS EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
HAVE NO MENTION OF PCPN IN THE TAFS. WINDS SHIFT FROM SW TO NW
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LATER TO N. WINDS MAY BE GUSTY FROM
THE N/NE AT TIMES MONDAY AT ORF DUE TO THE EXPOSURE TO THE BAY.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR RENEWED LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING PCPN AND
AVIATION RESTRICTIONS TO ECG AND ORF. AT THIS TIME...THE CHANCES
FOR PCPN ARE LOW. NE WINDS COULD BECOME GUSTY AT ORF ESPECIALLY
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
7 PM UPDATE...EXTENDED SCA INTO MONDAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES BASED ON SWAN/WAVE WATCH. THIS IS DUE TO AN
INCREASE IN THE WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND TO MATCH UP WITH HEADLINES TO THE NORTH. SEAS ARE BARELY
HOLDING ON TO SCA SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES BUT WILL HOLD ON TO SCA
FOR NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 08Z/4 AM. WILL NEED TO CONSIDER SCA IN THE
BAY BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH LATER ISSUANCES AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LO PRES CENTERED JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
CST THIS AFTN WILL TRACK NE OF THE REGION TNGT. AS FAR AS
HEADLINES...SCA OVR ALL CSTL WTRS WILL CONTINUE THRU 4 AM FOR 5-6
FT SEAS DUE TO PROLONGED ERLY FETCH. A COLD FRNT CROSSES THE WTRS
LATE TNGT...WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO STAY JUST SHY OF SCA
CRITERIA POST FRNTAL DUE TO A MARGINAL GRADIENT AND CAA. WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR THIS HOWEVER WITH IT BEING CLOSE AND WINDS OVR THE BAY
EXPECTED TO REACH ~15 KT. SECONDARY SURGE AND HI PRES BLDG N OF
THE AREA MON NGT MAY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS WITH
WINDS JUST SHY OF 20 KT OVR THE BAY...BUT WILL CAP AT AROUND 15 KT
FOR NOW. FOR TUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER PROLONGED
PERIOD OF NE FLOW WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED WAVES/SEAS AND SCA
CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR AT LEAST ALL CSTL WTRS AND THE MOUTH OF THE
BAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ~1.0FT ABOVE NORMAL TODAY FOR ALL
AREAS...AND INTO TONIGHT FOR THE MIDDLE BAY. PREDICTED HIGH TIDE
TONIGHT IS HIGHER THAN AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE TIDAL ANOMALY COULD NUDGE WATER LEVELS AT CAMBRIDGE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 3.0FT MLLW AND NEAR 3.0FT MLLW AT LEWISETTA. THESE
VALUES WOULD FALL JUST SHORT OF MINOR THRESHOLDS. TIDAL DEPARTURES
WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098.
     MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR VAZ099-
     100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/WRS
NEAR TERM...WRS
SHORT TERM...JDM/WRS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAS/LSA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 212314
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
714 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH MOVING NEWD AWAY FROM THE
COAST...TAKING CLOUDS AND RAIN WITH IT. COLD FRONT APPROACHING
QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. RAINFALL WITH THIS FRONT NOT IMPRESSIVE ON
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY...AND MODELS SUGGEST COVERAGE UNLIKELY TO
CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY AS FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING. HAVE GONE NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHC POPS WITH
THE FRONT. HAVE MAINTAINED SLGT CHC FOR TSTMS THROUGH MID
EVENING...AS AIRMASS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION...AND
CURRENT RADAR ECHOES HAVE A CONVECTIVE APPEARANCE. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 60 DEGREES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
SECTIONS...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S EXPECTED WEST OF I-95.

BOTH NAM AND GFS SUGGEST FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN OR SLOW FOR A SHORT
TIME JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. THIS WILL DELAY CLEARING ACROSS OUR NE
NC COUNTIES...BUT PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW WILL
BRING THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50 (MID
50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST). A SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S (PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES). ANOTHER
COOL NIGHT EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT,,,WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM 45
TO 50 FROM I-95 WESTWARD...TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COAST.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF STILL IN CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT WHEN IT COMES TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR A WAVE TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE
CWA...THEN LIFT NWD/NNWWD INTO THE REGION FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD.
HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE GFS/NAM FOR WEDNESDAY...WHICH SUGGEST A
DRY DAY IS ON TAP...WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND
SLGTLY BLO NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
STAGNANT THRU THE PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY
OF THE OH VALLEY/NE STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH
AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER
TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL
STICK TO 20% POPS FOR NOW. MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WITH 12Z GFS KEEPING ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE 12Z
ECMWF BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED NGT. HI TEMPS WILL
RANGE THRU THE 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 50S NW TO MID
60S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LO PRES WAS CURRENTLY WELL OFF THE SE VA/NE NC CST...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NNE TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST THIS AFTN INTO
TNGT. EXPECT NW OR W WINDS 5 TO 10 KT THIS AFTN IN BETWEEN THE LO
MOVNG NNE AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FM THE NW. THE COLD FRONT
WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION TNGT INTO EARLY MON MORNG...WITH THE
WINDS SHIFTING FM SW TO NW OR N. JUST A SLGT CHC FOR A SHOWER OR
TSTM WITH THE FRONT...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN PCPN IN THE TAFS.
HI PRES BLDS N OF THE REGION THRU MIDWEEK...AS THE FRONT STALLS
IN THE VICINITY OF THE SE/FL CST. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
MON THRU WED.

&&

.MARINE...
7 PM UPDATE...EXTENDED SCA INTO MONDAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES BASED ON SWAN/WAVE WATCH. THIS IS DUE TO AN
INCREASE IN THE WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND TO MATCH UP WITH HEADLINES TO THE NORTH. SEAS ARE BARELY
HOLDING ON TO SCA SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES BUT WILL HOLD ON TO SCA
FOR NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 08Z/4 AM. WILL NEED TO CONSIDER SCA IN THE
BAY BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH LATER ISSUANCES AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LO PRES CENTERED JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
CST THIS AFTN WILL TRACK NE OF THE REGION TNGT. AS FAR AS
HEADLINES...SCA OVR ALL CSTL WTRS WILL CONTINUE THRU 4 AM FOR 5-6
FT SEAS DUE TO PROLONGED ERLY FETCH. A COLD FRNT CROSSES THE WTRS
LATE TNGT...WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO STAY JUST SHY OF SCA
CRITERIA POST FRNTAL DUE TO A MARGINAL GRADIENT AND CAA. WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR THIS HOWEVER WITH IT BEING CLOSE AND WINDS OVR THE BAY
EXPECTED TO REACH ~15 KT. SECONDARY SURGE AND HI PRES BLDG N OF
THE AREA MON NGT MAY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS WITH
WINDS JUST SHY OF 20 KT OVR THE BAY...BUT WILL CAP AT AROUND 15 KT
FOR NOW. FOR TUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER PROLONGED
PERIOD OF NE FLOW WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED WAVES/SEAS AND SCA
CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR AT LEAST ALL CSTL WTRS AND THE MOUTH OF THE
BAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ~1.0FT ABOVE NORMAL TODAY FOR ALL
AREAS...AND INTO TONIGHT FOR THE MIDDLE BAY. PREDICTED HIGH TIDE
TONIGHT IS HIGHER THAN AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE TIDAL ANOMALY COULD NUDGE WATER LEVELS AT CAMBRIDGE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 3.0FT MLLW AND NEAR 3.0FT MLLW AT LEWISETTA. THESE
VALUES WOULD FALL JUST SHORT OF MINOR THRESHOLDS. TIDAL DEPARTURES
WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098.
     MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR VAZ099-
     100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/WRS
NEAR TERM...WRS
SHORT TERM...JDM/WRS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MAS/LSA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 212314
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
714 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH MOVING NEWD AWAY FROM THE
COAST...TAKING CLOUDS AND RAIN WITH IT. COLD FRONT APPROACHING
QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. RAINFALL WITH THIS FRONT NOT IMPRESSIVE ON
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY...AND MODELS SUGGEST COVERAGE UNLIKELY TO
CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY AS FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING. HAVE GONE NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHC POPS WITH
THE FRONT. HAVE MAINTAINED SLGT CHC FOR TSTMS THROUGH MID
EVENING...AS AIRMASS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION...AND
CURRENT RADAR ECHOES HAVE A CONVECTIVE APPEARANCE. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 60 DEGREES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
SECTIONS...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S EXPECTED WEST OF I-95.

BOTH NAM AND GFS SUGGEST FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN OR SLOW FOR A SHORT
TIME JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. THIS WILL DELAY CLEARING ACROSS OUR NE
NC COUNTIES...BUT PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW WILL
BRING THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50 (MID
50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST). A SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S (PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES). ANOTHER
COOL NIGHT EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT,,,WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM 45
TO 50 FROM I-95 WESTWARD...TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COAST.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF STILL IN CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT WHEN IT COMES TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR A WAVE TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE
CWA...THEN LIFT NWD/NNWWD INTO THE REGION FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD.
HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE GFS/NAM FOR WEDNESDAY...WHICH SUGGEST A
DRY DAY IS ON TAP...WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND
SLGTLY BLO NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
STAGNANT THRU THE PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY
OF THE OH VALLEY/NE STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH
AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER
TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL
STICK TO 20% POPS FOR NOW. MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WITH 12Z GFS KEEPING ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE 12Z
ECMWF BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED NGT. HI TEMPS WILL
RANGE THRU THE 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 50S NW TO MID
60S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LO PRES WAS CURRENTLY WELL OFF THE SE VA/NE NC CST...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NNE TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST THIS AFTN INTO
TNGT. EXPECT NW OR W WINDS 5 TO 10 KT THIS AFTN IN BETWEEN THE LO
MOVNG NNE AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FM THE NW. THE COLD FRONT
WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION TNGT INTO EARLY MON MORNG...WITH THE
WINDS SHIFTING FM SW TO NW OR N. JUST A SLGT CHC FOR A SHOWER OR
TSTM WITH THE FRONT...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN PCPN IN THE TAFS.
HI PRES BLDS N OF THE REGION THRU MIDWEEK...AS THE FRONT STALLS
IN THE VICINITY OF THE SE/FL CST. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
MON THRU WED.

&&

.MARINE...
7 PM UPDATE...EXTENDED SCA INTO MONDAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES BASED ON SWAN/WAVE WATCH. THIS IS DUE TO AN
INCREASE IN THE WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND TO MATCH UP WITH HEADLINES TO THE NORTH. SEAS ARE BARELY
HOLDING ON TO SCA SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES BUT WILL HOLD ON TO SCA
FOR NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 08Z/4 AM. WILL NEED TO CONSIDER SCA IN THE
BAY BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH LATER ISSUANCES AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LO PRES CENTERED JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
CST THIS AFTN WILL TRACK NE OF THE REGION TNGT. AS FAR AS
HEADLINES...SCA OVR ALL CSTL WTRS WILL CONTINUE THRU 4 AM FOR 5-6
FT SEAS DUE TO PROLONGED ERLY FETCH. A COLD FRNT CROSSES THE WTRS
LATE TNGT...WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO STAY JUST SHY OF SCA
CRITERIA POST FRNTAL DUE TO A MARGINAL GRADIENT AND CAA. WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR THIS HOWEVER WITH IT BEING CLOSE AND WINDS OVR THE BAY
EXPECTED TO REACH ~15 KT. SECONDARY SURGE AND HI PRES BLDG N OF
THE AREA MON NGT MAY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS WITH
WINDS JUST SHY OF 20 KT OVR THE BAY...BUT WILL CAP AT AROUND 15 KT
FOR NOW. FOR TUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER PROLONGED
PERIOD OF NE FLOW WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED WAVES/SEAS AND SCA
CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR AT LEAST ALL CSTL WTRS AND THE MOUTH OF THE
BAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ~1.0FT ABOVE NORMAL TODAY FOR ALL
AREAS...AND INTO TONIGHT FOR THE MIDDLE BAY. PREDICTED HIGH TIDE
TONIGHT IS HIGHER THAN AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE TIDAL ANOMALY COULD NUDGE WATER LEVELS AT CAMBRIDGE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 3.0FT MLLW AND NEAR 3.0FT MLLW AT LEWISETTA. THESE
VALUES WOULD FALL JUST SHORT OF MINOR THRESHOLDS. TIDAL DEPARTURES
WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098.
     MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR VAZ099-
     100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/WRS
NEAR TERM...WRS
SHORT TERM...JDM/WRS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MAS/LSA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 212314
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
714 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH MOVING NEWD AWAY FROM THE
COAST...TAKING CLOUDS AND RAIN WITH IT. COLD FRONT APPROACHING
QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. RAINFALL WITH THIS FRONT NOT IMPRESSIVE ON
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY...AND MODELS SUGGEST COVERAGE UNLIKELY TO
CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY AS FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING. HAVE GONE NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHC POPS WITH
THE FRONT. HAVE MAINTAINED SLGT CHC FOR TSTMS THROUGH MID
EVENING...AS AIRMASS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION...AND
CURRENT RADAR ECHOES HAVE A CONVECTIVE APPEARANCE. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 60 DEGREES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
SECTIONS...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S EXPECTED WEST OF I-95.

BOTH NAM AND GFS SUGGEST FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN OR SLOW FOR A SHORT
TIME JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. THIS WILL DELAY CLEARING ACROSS OUR NE
NC COUNTIES...BUT PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW WILL
BRING THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50 (MID
50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST). A SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S (PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES). ANOTHER
COOL NIGHT EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT,,,WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM 45
TO 50 FROM I-95 WESTWARD...TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COAST.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF STILL IN CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT WHEN IT COMES TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR A WAVE TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE
CWA...THEN LIFT NWD/NNWWD INTO THE REGION FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD.
HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE GFS/NAM FOR WEDNESDAY...WHICH SUGGEST A
DRY DAY IS ON TAP...WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND
SLGTLY BLO NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
STAGNANT THRU THE PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY
OF THE OH VALLEY/NE STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH
AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER
TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL
STICK TO 20% POPS FOR NOW. MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WITH 12Z GFS KEEPING ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE 12Z
ECMWF BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED NGT. HI TEMPS WILL
RANGE THRU THE 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 50S NW TO MID
60S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LO PRES WAS CURRENTLY WELL OFF THE SE VA/NE NC CST...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NNE TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST THIS AFTN INTO
TNGT. EXPECT NW OR W WINDS 5 TO 10 KT THIS AFTN IN BETWEEN THE LO
MOVNG NNE AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FM THE NW. THE COLD FRONT
WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION TNGT INTO EARLY MON MORNG...WITH THE
WINDS SHIFTING FM SW TO NW OR N. JUST A SLGT CHC FOR A SHOWER OR
TSTM WITH THE FRONT...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN PCPN IN THE TAFS.
HI PRES BLDS N OF THE REGION THRU MIDWEEK...AS THE FRONT STALLS
IN THE VICINITY OF THE SE/FL CST. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
MON THRU WED.

&&

.MARINE...
7 PM UPDATE...EXTENDED SCA INTO MONDAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES BASED ON SWAN/WAVE WATCH. THIS IS DUE TO AN
INCREASE IN THE WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND TO MATCH UP WITH HEADLINES TO THE NORTH. SEAS ARE BARELY
HOLDING ON TO SCA SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES BUT WILL HOLD ON TO SCA
FOR NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 08Z/4 AM. WILL NEED TO CONSIDER SCA IN THE
BAY BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH LATER ISSUANCES AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LO PRES CENTERED JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
CST THIS AFTN WILL TRACK NE OF THE REGION TNGT. AS FAR AS
HEADLINES...SCA OVR ALL CSTL WTRS WILL CONTINUE THRU 4 AM FOR 5-6
FT SEAS DUE TO PROLONGED ERLY FETCH. A COLD FRNT CROSSES THE WTRS
LATE TNGT...WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO STAY JUST SHY OF SCA
CRITERIA POST FRNTAL DUE TO A MARGINAL GRADIENT AND CAA. WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR THIS HOWEVER WITH IT BEING CLOSE AND WINDS OVR THE BAY
EXPECTED TO REACH ~15 KT. SECONDARY SURGE AND HI PRES BLDG N OF
THE AREA MON NGT MAY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS WITH
WINDS JUST SHY OF 20 KT OVR THE BAY...BUT WILL CAP AT AROUND 15 KT
FOR NOW. FOR TUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER PROLONGED
PERIOD OF NE FLOW WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED WAVES/SEAS AND SCA
CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR AT LEAST ALL CSTL WTRS AND THE MOUTH OF THE
BAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ~1.0FT ABOVE NORMAL TODAY FOR ALL
AREAS...AND INTO TONIGHT FOR THE MIDDLE BAY. PREDICTED HIGH TIDE
TONIGHT IS HIGHER THAN AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE TIDAL ANOMALY COULD NUDGE WATER LEVELS AT CAMBRIDGE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 3.0FT MLLW AND NEAR 3.0FT MLLW AT LEWISETTA. THESE
VALUES WOULD FALL JUST SHORT OF MINOR THRESHOLDS. TIDAL DEPARTURES
WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098.
     MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR VAZ099-
     100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/WRS
NEAR TERM...WRS
SHORT TERM...JDM/WRS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MAS/LSA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 212314
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
714 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH MOVING NEWD AWAY FROM THE
COAST...TAKING CLOUDS AND RAIN WITH IT. COLD FRONT APPROACHING
QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. RAINFALL WITH THIS FRONT NOT IMPRESSIVE ON
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY...AND MODELS SUGGEST COVERAGE UNLIKELY TO
CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY AS FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING. HAVE GONE NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHC POPS WITH
THE FRONT. HAVE MAINTAINED SLGT CHC FOR TSTMS THROUGH MID
EVENING...AS AIRMASS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION...AND
CURRENT RADAR ECHOES HAVE A CONVECTIVE APPEARANCE. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 60 DEGREES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
SECTIONS...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S EXPECTED WEST OF I-95.

BOTH NAM AND GFS SUGGEST FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN OR SLOW FOR A SHORT
TIME JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. THIS WILL DELAY CLEARING ACROSS OUR NE
NC COUNTIES...BUT PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW WILL
BRING THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50 (MID
50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST). A SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S (PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES). ANOTHER
COOL NIGHT EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT,,,WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM 45
TO 50 FROM I-95 WESTWARD...TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COAST.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF STILL IN CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT WHEN IT COMES TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR A WAVE TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE
CWA...THEN LIFT NWD/NNWWD INTO THE REGION FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD.
HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE GFS/NAM FOR WEDNESDAY...WHICH SUGGEST A
DRY DAY IS ON TAP...WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND
SLGTLY BLO NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
STAGNANT THRU THE PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY
OF THE OH VALLEY/NE STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH
AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER
TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL
STICK TO 20% POPS FOR NOW. MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WITH 12Z GFS KEEPING ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE 12Z
ECMWF BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED NGT. HI TEMPS WILL
RANGE THRU THE 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 50S NW TO MID
60S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LO PRES WAS CURRENTLY WELL OFF THE SE VA/NE NC CST...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NNE TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST THIS AFTN INTO
TNGT. EXPECT NW OR W WINDS 5 TO 10 KT THIS AFTN IN BETWEEN THE LO
MOVNG NNE AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FM THE NW. THE COLD FRONT
WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION TNGT INTO EARLY MON MORNG...WITH THE
WINDS SHIFTING FM SW TO NW OR N. JUST A SLGT CHC FOR A SHOWER OR
TSTM WITH THE FRONT...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN PCPN IN THE TAFS.
HI PRES BLDS N OF THE REGION THRU MIDWEEK...AS THE FRONT STALLS
IN THE VICINITY OF THE SE/FL CST. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
MON THRU WED.

&&

.MARINE...
7 PM UPDATE...EXTENDED SCA INTO MONDAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES BASED ON SWAN/WAVE WATCH. THIS IS DUE TO AN
INCREASE IN THE WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND TO MATCH UP WITH HEADLINES TO THE NORTH. SEAS ARE BARELY
HOLDING ON TO SCA SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES BUT WILL HOLD ON TO SCA
FOR NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 08Z/4 AM. WILL NEED TO CONSIDER SCA IN THE
BAY BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH LATER ISSUANCES AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LO PRES CENTERED JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
CST THIS AFTN WILL TRACK NE OF THE REGION TNGT. AS FAR AS
HEADLINES...SCA OVR ALL CSTL WTRS WILL CONTINUE THRU 4 AM FOR 5-6
FT SEAS DUE TO PROLONGED ERLY FETCH. A COLD FRNT CROSSES THE WTRS
LATE TNGT...WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO STAY JUST SHY OF SCA
CRITERIA POST FRNTAL DUE TO A MARGINAL GRADIENT AND CAA. WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR THIS HOWEVER WITH IT BEING CLOSE AND WINDS OVR THE BAY
EXPECTED TO REACH ~15 KT. SECONDARY SURGE AND HI PRES BLDG N OF
THE AREA MON NGT MAY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS WITH
WINDS JUST SHY OF 20 KT OVR THE BAY...BUT WILL CAP AT AROUND 15 KT
FOR NOW. FOR TUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER PROLONGED
PERIOD OF NE FLOW WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED WAVES/SEAS AND SCA
CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR AT LEAST ALL CSTL WTRS AND THE MOUTH OF THE
BAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ~1.0FT ABOVE NORMAL TODAY FOR ALL
AREAS...AND INTO TONIGHT FOR THE MIDDLE BAY. PREDICTED HIGH TIDE
TONIGHT IS HIGHER THAN AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE TIDAL ANOMALY COULD NUDGE WATER LEVELS AT CAMBRIDGE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 3.0FT MLLW AND NEAR 3.0FT MLLW AT LEWISETTA. THESE
VALUES WOULD FALL JUST SHORT OF MINOR THRESHOLDS. TIDAL DEPARTURES
WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098.
     MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR VAZ099-
     100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/WRS
NEAR TERM...WRS
SHORT TERM...JDM/WRS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MAS/LSA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 211938
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
338 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH MOVING NEWD AWAY FROM THE
COAST...TAKING CLOUDS AND RAIN WITH IT. COLD FRONT APPROACHING
QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. RAINFALL WITH THIS FRONT NOT IMPRESSIVE ON
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY...AND MODELS SUGGEST COVERAGE UNLIKELY TO
CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY AS FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING. HAVE GONE NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHC POPS WITH
THE FRONT. HAVE MAINTAINED SLGT CHC FOR TSTMS THROUGH MID
EVENING...AS AIRMASS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION...AND
CURRENT RADAR ECHOES HAVE A CONVECTIVE APPEARANCE. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 60 DEGREES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
SECTIONS...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S EXPECTED WEST OF I-95.

BOTH NAM AND GFS SUGGEST FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN OR SLOW FOR A SHORT
TIME JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. THIS WILL DELAY CLEARING ACROSS OUR NE
NC COUNTIES...BUT PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW WILL
BRING THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50 (MID
50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST). A SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S (PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES). ANOTHER
COOL NIGHT EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT,,,WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM 45
TO 50 FROM I-95 WESTWARD...TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COAST.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF STILL IN CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT WHEN IT COMES TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR A WAVE TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE
CWA...THEN LIFT NWD/NNWWD INTO THE REGION FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD.
HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE GFS/NAM FOR WEDNESDAY...WHICH SUGGEST A
DRY DAY IS ON TAP...WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND
SLGTLY BLO NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
STAGNANT THRU THE PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY
OF THE OH VALLEY/NE STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH
AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER
TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL
STICK TO 20% POPS FOR NOW. MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WITH 12Z GFS KEEPING ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE 12Z
ECMWF BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED NGT. HI TEMPS WILL
RANGE THRU THE 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 50S NW TO MID
60S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LO PRES WAS CURRENTLY WELL OFF THE SE VA/NE NC CST...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NNE TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST THIS AFTN INTO
TNGT. EXPECT NW OR W WINDS 5 TO 10 KT THIS AFTN IN BETWEEN THE LO
MOVNG NNE AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FM THE NW. THE COLD FRONT
WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION TNGT INTO EARLY MON MORNG...WITH THE
WINDS SHIFTING FM SW TO NW OR N. JUST A SLGT CHC FOR A SHOWER OR
TSTM WITH THE FRONT...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN PCPN IN THE TAFS.
HI PRES BLDS N OF THE REGION THRU MIDWEEK...AS THE FRONT STALLS
IN THE VICINITY OF THE SE/FL CST. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
MON THRU WED.

&&

.MARINE...
LO PRES CENTERED JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST THIS AFTN WILL
TRACK NE OF THE REGION TNGT. AS FAR AS HEADLINES...SCA OVR ALL CSTL
WTRS WILL CONTINUE THRU 4 AM FOR 5-6 FT SEAS DUE TO PROLONGED ERLY
FETCH. A COLD FRNT CROSSES THE WTRS LATE TNGT...WITH CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO STAY JUST SHY OF SCA CRITERIA POST FRNTAL DUE TO A
MARGINAL GRADIENT AND CAA. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS HOWEVER WITH
IT BEING CLOSE AND WINDS OVR THE BAY EXPECTED TO REACH ~15 KT.
SECONDARY SURGE AND HI PRES BLDG N OF THE AREA MON NGT MAY BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS WITH WINDS JUST SHY OF 20 KT OVR
THE BAY...BUT WILL CAP AT AROUND 15 KT FOR NOW. FOR TUE THRU THE
END OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF NE FLOW WILL LEAD TO
ELEVATED WAVES/SEAS AND SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR AT LEAST ALL
CSTL WTRS AND THE MOUTH OF THE BAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ~1.0FT ABOVE NORMAL TODAY FOR ALL
AREAS...AND INTO TONIGHT FOR THE MIDDLE BAY. PREDICTED HIGH TIDE
TONIGHT IS HIGHER THAN AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE TIDAL ANOMALY COULD NUDGE WATER LEVELS AT CAMBRIDGE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 3.0FT MLLW AND NEAR 3.0FT MLLW AT LEWISETTA. THESE
VALUES WOULD FALL JUST SHORT OF MINOR THRESHOLDS. TIDAL DEPARTURES
WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098.
     MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ099-100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/WRS
NEAR TERM...WRS
SHORT TERM...JDM/WRS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MAS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 211938
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
338 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH MOVING NEWD AWAY FROM THE
COAST...TAKING CLOUDS AND RAIN WITH IT. COLD FRONT APPROACHING
QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. RAINFALL WITH THIS FRONT NOT IMPRESSIVE ON
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY...AND MODELS SUGGEST COVERAGE UNLIKELY TO
CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY AS FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING. HAVE GONE NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHC POPS WITH
THE FRONT. HAVE MAINTAINED SLGT CHC FOR TSTMS THROUGH MID
EVENING...AS AIRMASS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION...AND
CURRENT RADAR ECHOES HAVE A CONVECTIVE APPEARANCE. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 60 DEGREES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
SECTIONS...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S EXPECTED WEST OF I-95.

BOTH NAM AND GFS SUGGEST FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN OR SLOW FOR A SHORT
TIME JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. THIS WILL DELAY CLEARING ACROSS OUR NE
NC COUNTIES...BUT PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW WILL
BRING THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50 (MID
50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST). A SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S (PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES). ANOTHER
COOL NIGHT EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT,,,WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM 45
TO 50 FROM I-95 WESTWARD...TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COAST.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF STILL IN CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT WHEN IT COMES TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR A WAVE TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE
CWA...THEN LIFT NWD/NNWWD INTO THE REGION FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD.
HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE GFS/NAM FOR WEDNESDAY...WHICH SUGGEST A
DRY DAY IS ON TAP...WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND
SLGTLY BLO NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
STAGNANT THRU THE PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY
OF THE OH VALLEY/NE STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH
AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER
TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL
STICK TO 20% POPS FOR NOW. MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WITH 12Z GFS KEEPING ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE 12Z
ECMWF BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED NGT. HI TEMPS WILL
RANGE THRU THE 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 50S NW TO MID
60S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LO PRES WAS CURRENTLY WELL OFF THE SE VA/NE NC CST...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NNE TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST THIS AFTN INTO
TNGT. EXPECT NW OR W WINDS 5 TO 10 KT THIS AFTN IN BETWEEN THE LO
MOVNG NNE AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FM THE NW. THE COLD FRONT
WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION TNGT INTO EARLY MON MORNG...WITH THE
WINDS SHIFTING FM SW TO NW OR N. JUST A SLGT CHC FOR A SHOWER OR
TSTM WITH THE FRONT...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN PCPN IN THE TAFS.
HI PRES BLDS N OF THE REGION THRU MIDWEEK...AS THE FRONT STALLS
IN THE VICINITY OF THE SE/FL CST. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
MON THRU WED.

&&

.MARINE...
LO PRES CENTERED JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST THIS AFTN WILL
TRACK NE OF THE REGION TNGT. AS FAR AS HEADLINES...SCA OVR ALL CSTL
WTRS WILL CONTINUE THRU 4 AM FOR 5-6 FT SEAS DUE TO PROLONGED ERLY
FETCH. A COLD FRNT CROSSES THE WTRS LATE TNGT...WITH CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO STAY JUST SHY OF SCA CRITERIA POST FRNTAL DUE TO A
MARGINAL GRADIENT AND CAA. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS HOWEVER WITH
IT BEING CLOSE AND WINDS OVR THE BAY EXPECTED TO REACH ~15 KT.
SECONDARY SURGE AND HI PRES BLDG N OF THE AREA MON NGT MAY BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS WITH WINDS JUST SHY OF 20 KT OVR
THE BAY...BUT WILL CAP AT AROUND 15 KT FOR NOW. FOR TUE THRU THE
END OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF NE FLOW WILL LEAD TO
ELEVATED WAVES/SEAS AND SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR AT LEAST ALL
CSTL WTRS AND THE MOUTH OF THE BAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ~1.0FT ABOVE NORMAL TODAY FOR ALL
AREAS...AND INTO TONIGHT FOR THE MIDDLE BAY. PREDICTED HIGH TIDE
TONIGHT IS HIGHER THAN AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE TIDAL ANOMALY COULD NUDGE WATER LEVELS AT CAMBRIDGE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 3.0FT MLLW AND NEAR 3.0FT MLLW AT LEWISETTA. THESE
VALUES WOULD FALL JUST SHORT OF MINOR THRESHOLDS. TIDAL DEPARTURES
WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098.
     MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ099-100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/WRS
NEAR TERM...WRS
SHORT TERM...JDM/WRS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MAS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KRNK 211932
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
332 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT...AND WILL REACH THE EAST COAST
BY MONDAY MORNING. MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL COVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 331 PM EDT SUNDAY...

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.  A
COLD FRONT ALONG THE OHIO RIVER WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND
REACH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN MONDAY. WITH SOLAR HEATING...THERE IS
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MLCAPE AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT TO CREATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SWODY1
HIGHLIGHT A 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS.

THE FRONT COMES THROUGH OUR AREA BETWEEN 00Z/8PM AND 06Z/2AM. DECENT
PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO
AROUND +6 IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA BY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECTING
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE WESTERN UPSLOPE AREA OVERNIGHT.
SHAPED LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HOLDING CLOUDS BANKED UP AGAINST WESTERN
SLOPES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ONCE THIS TROUGH AXIS TRACKS TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON...DRY AIR WILL ERODE MOUNTAIN
CLOUDS RETURNING SUNSHINE. DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW ANTICIPATED EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO KEEP MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES MONDAY. PLAYED HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY CLOSE TO ADJMAV WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 60S
IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM EDT SUNDAY...

LOOKING AT A DRY AND COOL AIRMASS MON NIGHT-WED...WITH SFC HIGH
SHIFTING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL
SET UP A CLASSIC WEDGE OVER OUR AREA...WHICH AT FIRST WILL BE
CLEAR/SUNNY AND DRY/COOL.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE ECMWF HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A
CLOUDIER...WETTER SOLUTION THAN THE OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS...AND
ATTM LEANING TOWARD A BLEND. THINK POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ENOUGH
SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT AND NE-E FLOW AT THE SFC TO DRAW IN THE SOME
ATLANTIC MOISTURE. FOR NOW WILL LIMIT SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE WED NIGHT...WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS.

FOR TEMPS EXPECT THE COOLER MORNING TO BE TUESDAY MORNING...WHERE
SOME VALLEYS IN SE WV/FAR SW VA MAY DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S
WHILE MOST WILL SEE 40S.

TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE
MOUNTAINS...TO LOWER TO MID 70S EAST.

TEMPS MODIFY SOME WED NIGHT WITH 40S MOST PLACES...COOLER IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...THEN WARM AGAIN INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S...WITH WARMEST TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR SW CWA WHILE SE FLOW OUTSIDE
THE WEDGE MAY ENHANCE TEMPS.

WED NIGHT MODIFIES SOME WITH INCREASING CLOUDS WHERE LOWS RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NE STATES ON THURSDAY WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT WESTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO
A PROLONGED EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

MODELS ARE STARTING TO AGREE ON A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
FORMING ACROSS THE SE STATES LATE IN THE WEEK...HOWEVER THERE IS
STILL MAJOR DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT WHICH WILL AFFECT HOW MUCH
MOISTURE CAN GET PULLED UP INTO THE REGION. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE
MUCH DRIER THAN THE ECMWF. DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EASTWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 122 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A COLD FRONT ALONG THE OHIO RIVER WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL SPREAD EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD INCREASE WITH THE APPROACHING
FRONT...AND GUSTS 20-25KTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT A MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 18Z/2PM AND 00Z/8PM AND
THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

WINDS BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. MODELS
WERE SUGGESTING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BANK UP AGAINST THE
WESTERN SLOPS OF THE APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED AT KBLF AND KLWB OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. DRIER AIR
WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
EVENING.

HIGH CONFIDENCES ON CEILING AND VISIBILITIES DURING TAF PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WIND DURING THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR IN THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. RIVER VALLEY FOG
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AT NIGHT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...AMS/KK



000
FXUS61 KRNK 211932
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
332 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT...AND WILL REACH THE EAST COAST
BY MONDAY MORNING. MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL COVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 331 PM EDT SUNDAY...

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.  A
COLD FRONT ALONG THE OHIO RIVER WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND
REACH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN MONDAY. WITH SOLAR HEATING...THERE IS
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MLCAPE AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT TO CREATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SWODY1
HIGHLIGHT A 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS.

THE FRONT COMES THROUGH OUR AREA BETWEEN 00Z/8PM AND 06Z/2AM. DECENT
PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO
AROUND +6 IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA BY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECTING
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE WESTERN UPSLOPE AREA OVERNIGHT.
SHAPED LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HOLDING CLOUDS BANKED UP AGAINST WESTERN
SLOPES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ONCE THIS TROUGH AXIS TRACKS TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON...DRY AIR WILL ERODE MOUNTAIN
CLOUDS RETURNING SUNSHINE. DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW ANTICIPATED EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO KEEP MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES MONDAY. PLAYED HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY CLOSE TO ADJMAV WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 60S
IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM EDT SUNDAY...

LOOKING AT A DRY AND COOL AIRMASS MON NIGHT-WED...WITH SFC HIGH
SHIFTING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL
SET UP A CLASSIC WEDGE OVER OUR AREA...WHICH AT FIRST WILL BE
CLEAR/SUNNY AND DRY/COOL.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE ECMWF HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A
CLOUDIER...WETTER SOLUTION THAN THE OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS...AND
ATTM LEANING TOWARD A BLEND. THINK POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ENOUGH
SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT AND NE-E FLOW AT THE SFC TO DRAW IN THE SOME
ATLANTIC MOISTURE. FOR NOW WILL LIMIT SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE WED NIGHT...WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS.

FOR TEMPS EXPECT THE COOLER MORNING TO BE TUESDAY MORNING...WHERE
SOME VALLEYS IN SE WV/FAR SW VA MAY DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S
WHILE MOST WILL SEE 40S.

TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE
MOUNTAINS...TO LOWER TO MID 70S EAST.

TEMPS MODIFY SOME WED NIGHT WITH 40S MOST PLACES...COOLER IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...THEN WARM AGAIN INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S...WITH WARMEST TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR SW CWA WHILE SE FLOW OUTSIDE
THE WEDGE MAY ENHANCE TEMPS.

WED NIGHT MODIFIES SOME WITH INCREASING CLOUDS WHERE LOWS RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NE STATES ON THURSDAY WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT WESTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO
A PROLONGED EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

MODELS ARE STARTING TO AGREE ON A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
FORMING ACROSS THE SE STATES LATE IN THE WEEK...HOWEVER THERE IS
STILL MAJOR DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT WHICH WILL AFFECT HOW MUCH
MOISTURE CAN GET PULLED UP INTO THE REGION. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE
MUCH DRIER THAN THE ECMWF. DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EASTWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 122 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A COLD FRONT ALONG THE OHIO RIVER WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL SPREAD EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD INCREASE WITH THE APPROACHING
FRONT...AND GUSTS 20-25KTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT A MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 18Z/2PM AND 00Z/8PM AND
THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

WINDS BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. MODELS
WERE SUGGESTING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BANK UP AGAINST THE
WESTERN SLOPS OF THE APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED AT KBLF AND KLWB OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. DRIER AIR
WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
EVENING.

HIGH CONFIDENCES ON CEILING AND VISIBILITIES DURING TAF PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WIND DURING THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR IN THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. RIVER VALLEY FOG
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AT NIGHT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...AMS/KK




000
FXUS61 KLWX 211858
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
258 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...THEN SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 18Z...COASTAL LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE NC/VA BORDER PER
REGIONAL IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY. A COLD FRONT IS OVER OHIO AND
SHIFTING EAST (THERE ARE SEVERAL WIND REPORTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH IN
IN/OH). A PREFRONTAL LINE OF SHOWERS IS ENTERING THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS. THIS IS THE SECOND WAVE OF THE DAY...WITH ANOTHER WAVE
OR TWO EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF. THE INVERSION AT 700MB FROM
THE 12Z KIAD RAOB IS ONLY SLOWLY BEING ERODED PER CLEAR SKIES FROM
THE BLUE RIDGE TO INTERSTATE 95.

MLCAPE 500 J/KG CURRENTLY OVER THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND WEST PER
SPC ANALYSIS. MID AFTERNOON THUNDER THREAT IS ISOLATED AT
BEST (AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE)...WITH MORE SCATTERED COVERAGE
WITH THE FRONT THIS EVENING WHEN MLCAPE SHOULD EXCEED 1000 J/KG.
ISOLATED THUNDER WORDING EXTENDS EAST TO THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR FROM 5 TO 8PM. SHOULD THE CAP BE COMPLETELY BROKEN...AN
85/62 INITIAL PARCEL WOULD ALLOW FOR AROUND 1000 J/KG SBCAPE.

IN SPITE OF FROPA TIMING AFTER SUNSET EAST OF I-95...PRESENCE OF
INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW ISOLATED THUNDER.

NWLY FLOW SPREADS IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 25 TO
30 MPH.

MIN TEMPS ELEVATED IN MIXING FLOW IN SPITE OF COOLER AIR COMING
IN. MID TO UPR 50S INLAND...LOW TO MID 60S NEARSHORE. UPSLOPE RAIN
SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WEST FROM THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A FEW UPSLOPE SPRINKLES WEST FROM THE ALLEGHENY FRONT MONDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE DRY WITH NWLY GUSTS 25 MPH DECREASING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. GOOD MIXING AND 850MB TEMPS OF 4-6C SUGGEST MAX
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE GRADIENT
SLACKING PARTICULARLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE...MIN TEMPS COULD BE IN THE MID 30S IN
WRN VALLEYS AND THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. SINCE THIS IS THE SHELTER
TEMPERATURE (ABOUT SIX FEET OFF THE GROUND) GROUND TEMPERATURES
COULD HIT FREEZING AND THUS CAUSE FROST. A MENTION FOR FROST WILL
BE PUT IN THE HWO FOR OUT THERE. OTHERWISE...SUB NORMAL MIN TEMPS
WITH LOW TO MID 40S PIEDMONT AND WEST...UPR 40S INLAND COASTAL LOW
LANDS AND LOW TO MID 50S URBAN/NEARSHORE.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS WITH NLY FLOW AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC AS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS
WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW IN A
TIGHTENING GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY...WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER IN A MARITIME AIRMASS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK.

THE OPERATIONAL 00Z ECMWF MODEL WAS DEFINITELY THE MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE TO
THE SOUTH IN THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIMEFRAME...BUT DOES NOT HAVE
OVERWHELMING SUPPORT FROM ITS OWN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE FOR PERIODS OF DRIZZLE DURING THIS PERIOD GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW...BUT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW WELL TO THE SOUTH APPEARS RELATIVELY LOW AT THE MOMENT.
HAVE KEPT POPS VERY LOW FOR THIS REASON.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WEAKENS AND THE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE...UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL RE-STRENGTHEN AND
RESULT IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WITH A WARMING TREND
EXPECTED BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE DC METROS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. HIGHEST THUNDER THREAT IS KMRB WHERE A
VCTS 20Z TO 00Z IS IN THE TAF.

NWLY FLOW GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. VFR AND NLY FLOW THEN TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING
NORTH OF THE AREA.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS APPEAR INCREASINGLY LIKELY WITH LOW CLOUDS/FOG
MAKING A VISIT TO THE AREA WED-THU NIGHT. WINDS GENERALLY EASTERLY
10-15 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM OFF THE DELMARVA. NELY FLOW
WILL BECOME SWLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS TONIGHT.
NWLY FLOW GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT STARTING AROUND MIDNIGHT...SO THAT IS
WHEN THE SCA BEGINS FOR ALL WATERS. SCA THROUGH MONDAY WITH GUSTS
IN THE MORNING AROUND 25 KT...SLOWLY EASING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

NLY THEN NELY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS NORTH TUESDAY.

WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR SCA LEVELS DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK
IN A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A DEPARTING HIGH TO THE
NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE DRIFTING INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS FROM THE
ATLANTIC. WINDS/WAVES SUBSIDE AS THE TWO PRESSURE SYSTEMS WEAKEN AND
MOVE AWAY BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
NLY FLOW HAS LOWERED THE DEPARTURE BELOW HALF A FOOT. FLOW IS
COMING SWLY BEFORE A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...THAT IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR COASTAL FLOODING. NWLY FLOW
WILL RETURN LEVELS NEAR NORMAL MONDAY.

TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL INCREASE IN PERSISTENT MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY WHICH ALONG WITH A NEW MOON MAY CAUSE
COASTAL FLOODING AROUND TIMES OF HIGH TIDE STARTING LATE
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...BAJ
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...BAJ/DFH
MARINE...BAJ/DFH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BAJ/DFH







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 211852
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
252 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH MOVING NEWD AWAY FROM THE
COAST...TAKING CLOUDS AND RAIN WITH IT. COLD FRONT APPROACHING
QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. RAINFALL WITH THIS FRONT NOT IMPRESSIVE ON
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY...AND MODELS SUGGEST COVERAGE UNLIKELY TO
CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY AS FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING. HAVE GONE NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHC POPS WITH
THE FRONT. HAVE MAINTAINED SLGT CHC FOR TSTMS THROUGH MID
EVENING...AS AIRMASS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION...AND
CURRENT RADAR ECHOES HAVE A CONVECTIVE APPEARANCE. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 60 DEGREES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
SECTIONS...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S EXPECTED WEST OF I-95.

BOTH NAM AND GFS SUGGEST FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN OR SLOW FOR A SHORT
TIME JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. THIS WILL DELAY CLEARING ACROSS OUR NE
NC COUNTIES...BUT PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW WILL
BRING THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50 (MID
50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST). A SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S (PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES). ANOTHER
COOL NIGHT EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT,,,WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM 45
TO 50 FROM I-95 WESTWARD...TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COAST.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF STILL IN CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT WHEN IT COMES TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR A WAVE TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE
CWA...THEN LIFT NWD/NNWWD INTO THE REGION FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD.
HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE GFS/NAM FOR WEDNESDAY...WHICH SUGGEST A
DRY DAY IS ON TAP...WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE OH VALLEY/NE
STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE
OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO
PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL STICK TO 20% POPS FOR
NOW. IN GENERAL 12Z GFS KEEPS ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE ECMWF
BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED. HI TEMPS WILL AVG IN THE
MID TO UPR 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 50S TO LWR 60S OVR
MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LO PRES WAS CURRENTLY WELL OFF THE SE VA/NE NC CST...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NNE TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST THIS AFTN INTO
TNGT. EXPECT NW OR W WINDS 5 TO 10 KT THIS AFTN IN BETWEEN THE LO
MOVNG NNE AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FM THE NW. THE COLD FRONT
WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION TNGT INTO EARLY MON MORNG...WITH THE
WINDS SHIFTING FM SW TO NW OR N. JUST A SLGT CHC FOR A SHOWER OR
TSTM WITH THE FRONT...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN PCPN IN THE TAFS.
HI PRES BLDS N OF THE REGION THRU MIDWEEK...AS THE FRONT STALLS
IN THE VICINITY OF THE SE/FL CST. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
MON THRU WED.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING NNE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS LOW WILL ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY AS IT
TRACKS WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A NNE WIND IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS MORNING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE BAY SOUTHWARD AS THE LOW
MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH. A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED 20-25KT WIND IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS. A COLD FRONT THEN
APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CROSSES THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT. THE WIND SHOULD DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN SHIFT TO SW LATE AND INCREASE TO 10-15KT OVER
THE BAY/SOUND RIVERS AND 15-20KT OVER THE OCEAN THIS EVENING. SEAS
SHOULD AVERAGE 5-7FT THROUGH THE DAY...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 4-5FT
TONIGHT. SCAS FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND SOUND WILL RUN THROUGH
17Z...AND THE SCA FOR THE OCEAN WILL RUN THROUGH 08Z TONIGHT AS SEAS
SHOULD BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE...ESPECIALLY OUT NEAR 20NM. THE WIND
SHIFTS TO NW LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE INITIAL CAA SURGE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA. A STRONGER NORTHERLY
SURGE IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...AND THIS COULD
BRING A PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS TO THE LOWER BAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE FLOW...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
ELEVATED SEAS/WAVES AND LIKELY SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ~1.0FT ABOVE NORMAL TODAY FOR ALL
AREAS...AND INTO TONIGHT FOR THE MIDDLE BAY. PREDICTED HIGH TIDE
TONIGHT IS HIGHER THAN AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE TIDAL ANOMALY COULD NUDGE WATER LEVELS AT CAMBRIDGE/BISHOPS
HEAD SLIGHTLY ABOVE 3.0FT MLLW AND NEAR 3.0FT MLLW AT LEWISETTA.
THESE VALUES WOULD FALL JUST SHORT OF MINOR THRESHOLDS. TIDAL
DEPARTURES WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER PERIOD OF
PROLONGED NE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098.
     MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ099-100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/WRS
NEAR TERM...WRS
SHORT TERM...JDM/WRS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...AJZ/TMG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 211852
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
252 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH MOVING NEWD AWAY FROM THE
COAST...TAKING CLOUDS AND RAIN WITH IT. COLD FRONT APPROACHING
QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. RAINFALL WITH THIS FRONT NOT IMPRESSIVE ON
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY...AND MODELS SUGGEST COVERAGE UNLIKELY TO
CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY AS FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING. HAVE GONE NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHC POPS WITH
THE FRONT. HAVE MAINTAINED SLGT CHC FOR TSTMS THROUGH MID
EVENING...AS AIRMASS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION...AND
CURRENT RADAR ECHOES HAVE A CONVECTIVE APPEARANCE. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 60 DEGREES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
SECTIONS...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S EXPECTED WEST OF I-95.

BOTH NAM AND GFS SUGGEST FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN OR SLOW FOR A SHORT
TIME JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. THIS WILL DELAY CLEARING ACROSS OUR NE
NC COUNTIES...BUT PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW WILL
BRING THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50 (MID
50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST). A SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S (PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES). ANOTHER
COOL NIGHT EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT,,,WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM 45
TO 50 FROM I-95 WESTWARD...TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COAST.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF STILL IN CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT WHEN IT COMES TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR A WAVE TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE
CWA...THEN LIFT NWD/NNWWD INTO THE REGION FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD.
HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE GFS/NAM FOR WEDNESDAY...WHICH SUGGEST A
DRY DAY IS ON TAP...WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE OH VALLEY/NE
STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE
OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO
PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL STICK TO 20% POPS FOR
NOW. IN GENERAL 12Z GFS KEEPS ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE ECMWF
BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED. HI TEMPS WILL AVG IN THE
MID TO UPR 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 50S TO LWR 60S OVR
MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LO PRES WAS CURRENTLY WELL OFF THE SE VA/NE NC CST...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NNE TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST THIS AFTN INTO
TNGT. EXPECT NW OR W WINDS 5 TO 10 KT THIS AFTN IN BETWEEN THE LO
MOVNG NNE AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FM THE NW. THE COLD FRONT
WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION TNGT INTO EARLY MON MORNG...WITH THE
WINDS SHIFTING FM SW TO NW OR N. JUST A SLGT CHC FOR A SHOWER OR
TSTM WITH THE FRONT...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN PCPN IN THE TAFS.
HI PRES BLDS N OF THE REGION THRU MIDWEEK...AS THE FRONT STALLS
IN THE VICINITY OF THE SE/FL CST. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
MON THRU WED.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING NNE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS LOW WILL ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY AS IT
TRACKS WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A NNE WIND IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS MORNING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE BAY SOUTHWARD AS THE LOW
MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH. A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED 20-25KT WIND IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS. A COLD FRONT THEN
APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CROSSES THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT. THE WIND SHOULD DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN SHIFT TO SW LATE AND INCREASE TO 10-15KT OVER
THE BAY/SOUND RIVERS AND 15-20KT OVER THE OCEAN THIS EVENING. SEAS
SHOULD AVERAGE 5-7FT THROUGH THE DAY...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 4-5FT
TONIGHT. SCAS FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND SOUND WILL RUN THROUGH
17Z...AND THE SCA FOR THE OCEAN WILL RUN THROUGH 08Z TONIGHT AS SEAS
SHOULD BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE...ESPECIALLY OUT NEAR 20NM. THE WIND
SHIFTS TO NW LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE INITIAL CAA SURGE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA. A STRONGER NORTHERLY
SURGE IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...AND THIS COULD
BRING A PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS TO THE LOWER BAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE FLOW...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
ELEVATED SEAS/WAVES AND LIKELY SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ~1.0FT ABOVE NORMAL TODAY FOR ALL
AREAS...AND INTO TONIGHT FOR THE MIDDLE BAY. PREDICTED HIGH TIDE
TONIGHT IS HIGHER THAN AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE TIDAL ANOMALY COULD NUDGE WATER LEVELS AT CAMBRIDGE/BISHOPS
HEAD SLIGHTLY ABOVE 3.0FT MLLW AND NEAR 3.0FT MLLW AT LEWISETTA.
THESE VALUES WOULD FALL JUST SHORT OF MINOR THRESHOLDS. TIDAL
DEPARTURES WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER PERIOD OF
PROLONGED NE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098.
     MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ099-100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/WRS
NEAR TERM...WRS
SHORT TERM...JDM/WRS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...AJZ/TMG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 211852
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
252 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH MOVING NEWD AWAY FROM THE
COAST...TAKING CLOUDS AND RAIN WITH IT. COLD FRONT APPROACHING
QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. RAINFALL WITH THIS FRONT NOT IMPRESSIVE ON
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY...AND MODELS SUGGEST COVERAGE UNLIKELY TO
CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY AS FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING. HAVE GONE NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHC POPS WITH
THE FRONT. HAVE MAINTAINED SLGT CHC FOR TSTMS THROUGH MID
EVENING...AS AIRMASS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION...AND
CURRENT RADAR ECHOES HAVE A CONVECTIVE APPEARANCE. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 60 DEGREES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
SECTIONS...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S EXPECTED WEST OF I-95.

BOTH NAM AND GFS SUGGEST FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN OR SLOW FOR A SHORT
TIME JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. THIS WILL DELAY CLEARING ACROSS OUR NE
NC COUNTIES...BUT PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW WILL
BRING THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50 (MID
50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST). A SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S (PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES). ANOTHER
COOL NIGHT EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT,,,WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM 45
TO 50 FROM I-95 WESTWARD...TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COAST.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF STILL IN CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT WHEN IT COMES TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR A WAVE TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE
CWA...THEN LIFT NWD/NNWWD INTO THE REGION FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD.
HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE GFS/NAM FOR WEDNESDAY...WHICH SUGGEST A
DRY DAY IS ON TAP...WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE OH VALLEY/NE
STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE
OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO
PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL STICK TO 20% POPS FOR
NOW. IN GENERAL 12Z GFS KEEPS ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE ECMWF
BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED. HI TEMPS WILL AVG IN THE
MID TO UPR 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 50S TO LWR 60S OVR
MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LO PRES WAS CURRENTLY WELL OFF THE SE VA/NE NC CST...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NNE TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST THIS AFTN INTO
TNGT. EXPECT NW OR W WINDS 5 TO 10 KT THIS AFTN IN BETWEEN THE LO
MOVNG NNE AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FM THE NW. THE COLD FRONT
WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION TNGT INTO EARLY MON MORNG...WITH THE
WINDS SHIFTING FM SW TO NW OR N. JUST A SLGT CHC FOR A SHOWER OR
TSTM WITH THE FRONT...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN PCPN IN THE TAFS.
HI PRES BLDS N OF THE REGION THRU MIDWEEK...AS THE FRONT STALLS
IN THE VICINITY OF THE SE/FL CST. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
MON THRU WED.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING NNE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS LOW WILL ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY AS IT
TRACKS WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A NNE WIND IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS MORNING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE BAY SOUTHWARD AS THE LOW
MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH. A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED 20-25KT WIND IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS. A COLD FRONT THEN
APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CROSSES THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT. THE WIND SHOULD DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN SHIFT TO SW LATE AND INCREASE TO 10-15KT OVER
THE BAY/SOUND RIVERS AND 15-20KT OVER THE OCEAN THIS EVENING. SEAS
SHOULD AVERAGE 5-7FT THROUGH THE DAY...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 4-5FT
TONIGHT. SCAS FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND SOUND WILL RUN THROUGH
17Z...AND THE SCA FOR THE OCEAN WILL RUN THROUGH 08Z TONIGHT AS SEAS
SHOULD BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE...ESPECIALLY OUT NEAR 20NM. THE WIND
SHIFTS TO NW LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE INITIAL CAA SURGE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA. A STRONGER NORTHERLY
SURGE IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...AND THIS COULD
BRING A PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS TO THE LOWER BAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE FLOW...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
ELEVATED SEAS/WAVES AND LIKELY SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ~1.0FT ABOVE NORMAL TODAY FOR ALL
AREAS...AND INTO TONIGHT FOR THE MIDDLE BAY. PREDICTED HIGH TIDE
TONIGHT IS HIGHER THAN AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE TIDAL ANOMALY COULD NUDGE WATER LEVELS AT CAMBRIDGE/BISHOPS
HEAD SLIGHTLY ABOVE 3.0FT MLLW AND NEAR 3.0FT MLLW AT LEWISETTA.
THESE VALUES WOULD FALL JUST SHORT OF MINOR THRESHOLDS. TIDAL
DEPARTURES WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER PERIOD OF
PROLONGED NE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098.
     MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ099-100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/WRS
NEAR TERM...WRS
SHORT TERM...JDM/WRS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...AJZ/TMG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 211852
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
252 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH MOVING NEWD AWAY FROM THE
COAST...TAKING CLOUDS AND RAIN WITH IT. COLD FRONT APPROACHING
QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. RAINFALL WITH THIS FRONT NOT IMPRESSIVE ON
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY...AND MODELS SUGGEST COVERAGE UNLIKELY TO
CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY AS FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING. HAVE GONE NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHC POPS WITH
THE FRONT. HAVE MAINTAINED SLGT CHC FOR TSTMS THROUGH MID
EVENING...AS AIRMASS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION...AND
CURRENT RADAR ECHOES HAVE A CONVECTIVE APPEARANCE. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 60 DEGREES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
SECTIONS...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S EXPECTED WEST OF I-95.

BOTH NAM AND GFS SUGGEST FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN OR SLOW FOR A SHORT
TIME JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. THIS WILL DELAY CLEARING ACROSS OUR NE
NC COUNTIES...BUT PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW WILL
BRING THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50 (MID
50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST). A SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S (PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES). ANOTHER
COOL NIGHT EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT,,,WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM 45
TO 50 FROM I-95 WESTWARD...TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COAST.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF STILL IN CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT WHEN IT COMES TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR A WAVE TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE
CWA...THEN LIFT NWD/NNWWD INTO THE REGION FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD.
HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE GFS/NAM FOR WEDNESDAY...WHICH SUGGEST A
DRY DAY IS ON TAP...WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE OH VALLEY/NE
STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE
OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO
PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL STICK TO 20% POPS FOR
NOW. IN GENERAL 12Z GFS KEEPS ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE ECMWF
BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED. HI TEMPS WILL AVG IN THE
MID TO UPR 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 50S TO LWR 60S OVR
MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LO PRES WAS CURRENTLY WELL OFF THE SE VA/NE NC CST...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NNE TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST THIS AFTN INTO
TNGT. EXPECT NW OR W WINDS 5 TO 10 KT THIS AFTN IN BETWEEN THE LO
MOVNG NNE AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FM THE NW. THE COLD FRONT
WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION TNGT INTO EARLY MON MORNG...WITH THE
WINDS SHIFTING FM SW TO NW OR N. JUST A SLGT CHC FOR A SHOWER OR
TSTM WITH THE FRONT...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN PCPN IN THE TAFS.
HI PRES BLDS N OF THE REGION THRU MIDWEEK...AS THE FRONT STALLS
IN THE VICINITY OF THE SE/FL CST. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
MON THRU WED.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING NNE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS LOW WILL ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY AS IT
TRACKS WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A NNE WIND IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS MORNING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE BAY SOUTHWARD AS THE LOW
MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH. A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED 20-25KT WIND IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS. A COLD FRONT THEN
APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CROSSES THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT. THE WIND SHOULD DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN SHIFT TO SW LATE AND INCREASE TO 10-15KT OVER
THE BAY/SOUND RIVERS AND 15-20KT OVER THE OCEAN THIS EVENING. SEAS
SHOULD AVERAGE 5-7FT THROUGH THE DAY...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 4-5FT
TONIGHT. SCAS FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND SOUND WILL RUN THROUGH
17Z...AND THE SCA FOR THE OCEAN WILL RUN THROUGH 08Z TONIGHT AS SEAS
SHOULD BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE...ESPECIALLY OUT NEAR 20NM. THE WIND
SHIFTS TO NW LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE INITIAL CAA SURGE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA. A STRONGER NORTHERLY
SURGE IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...AND THIS COULD
BRING A PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS TO THE LOWER BAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE FLOW...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
ELEVATED SEAS/WAVES AND LIKELY SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ~1.0FT ABOVE NORMAL TODAY FOR ALL
AREAS...AND INTO TONIGHT FOR THE MIDDLE BAY. PREDICTED HIGH TIDE
TONIGHT IS HIGHER THAN AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE TIDAL ANOMALY COULD NUDGE WATER LEVELS AT CAMBRIDGE/BISHOPS
HEAD SLIGHTLY ABOVE 3.0FT MLLW AND NEAR 3.0FT MLLW AT LEWISETTA.
THESE VALUES WOULD FALL JUST SHORT OF MINOR THRESHOLDS. TIDAL
DEPARTURES WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER PERIOD OF
PROLONGED NE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098.
     MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ099-100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/WRS
NEAR TERM...WRS
SHORT TERM...JDM/WRS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...AJZ/TMG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 211804
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
204 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING.
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS IN PLACE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID MORNING UPDATE...SFC LOW OFF THE NE NC COAST AT 1430Z...AND
MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY NEWD. PRECIP QUICKLY DIMINSHING AND MOVING
OFFSHORE AS LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPR SHORT WAVE BEGIN MOVING AWAY
FROM THE AREA. INLAND...SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY...AND HAVE MADE FEW
CHANGES THERE. ALONG THE COAST...CLOUDS WILL TAKE A WHILE TO
CLEAR...AND HAVE THUS DROPPED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS NE
NC...EASTERN VA AND OUR DELMARVA CWA. REST OF FORECAST FROM LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM EARLY MORNING
FORECAST.

EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION...LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS 1006 MB SFC
LOW LIFTING NORTHWARD OFF THE NC COAST. MEANWHILE...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST INTO THE PIEDMONT OF
VA/NC. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW CONTINUES TO FALL
ACROSS EASTERN NC AND FAR SERN VA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE
OVERALL COVERAGE/INTENSITY HAS BEGUN TO WANE IN THE PAST FEW
HOURS. THE SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NE OFF THE NC OBX
THRU THE MORNING. AS IT DOES SO...EXPECTING PCPN TO CONTINUE
ACROSS OUR FAR SE ZONES BUT IN AN OVERALL DIMINISHING TREND. BY
18Z...HIGH RES MODELS HAVE THE SFC LOW OFFSHORE OF THE
DELMARVA...WITH ANY LEFTOVER LIGHT RAIN LIMITED TO IMMEDIATE
COASTAL LOCATIONS AND OFFSHORE. WILL SLOWLY LOWER POPS THROUGH
MIDDAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT
MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TODAY...BEFORE CROSSING THE
MOUNTAINS AND MOVING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT. MODELS
INDICATE LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT...SO
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. WILL MAINTAIN 20-30%
POPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/I-95 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING...PROBABLY DRY
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS
THIS EVENING...WITH SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. WINDS TUNING TO THE W-SW THIS AFTERNOON COUPLED WITH
INCREASING SUNSHINE AND H85 TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND +17C WILL
RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPR 80S MOST PLACES. LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE UPR 50S NW TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE SE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE FA BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE REGION WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR...AND COMFORTABLE MAX TEMPS 75-80 DEGREES. DID MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) ACROSS THE FAR SE IN THE MORNING AS THE
FRONT CLEARS.

THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50 (MID
50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST). A SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
(PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE OH VALLEY/NE
STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE
OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO
PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL STICK TO 20% POPS FOR
NOW. IN GENERAL 12Z GFS KEEPS ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE ECMWF
BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED. HI TEMPS WILL AVG IN THE
MID TO UPR 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 50S TO LWR 60S OVR
MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LO PRES WAS CURRENTLY WELL OFF THE SE VA/NE NC CST...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NNE TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST THIS AFTN INTO
TNGT. EXPECT NW OR W WINDS 5 TO 10 KT THIS AFTN IN BETWEEN THE LO
MOVNG NNE AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FM THE NW. THE COLD FRONT
WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION TNGT INTO EARLY MON MORNG...WITH THE
WINDS SHIFTING FM SW TO NW OR N. JUST A SLGT CHC FOR A SHOWER OR
TSTM WITH THE FRONT...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN PCPN IN THE TAFS.
HI PRES BLDS N OF THE REGION THRU MIDWEEK...AS THE FRONT STALLS
IN THE VICINITY OF THE SE/FL CST. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
MON THRU WED.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING NNE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS LOW WILL ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY AS IT
TRACKS WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A NNE WIND IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS MORNING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE BAY SOUTHWARD AS THE LOW
MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH. A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED 20-25KT WIND IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS. A COLD FRONT THEN
APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CROSSES THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT. THE WIND SHOULD DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN SHIFT TO SW LATE AND INCREASE TO 10-15KT OVER
THE BAY/SOUND RIVERS AND 15-20KT OVER THE OCEAN THIS EVENING. SEAS
SHOULD AVERAGE 5-7FT THROUGH THE DAY...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 4-5FT
TONIGHT. SCAS FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND SOUND WILL RUN THROUGH
17Z...AND THE SCA FOR THE OCEAN WILL RUN THROUGH 08Z TONIGHT AS SEAS
SHOULD BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE...ESPECIALLY OUT NEAR 20NM. THE WIND
SHIFTS TO NW LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE INITIAL CAA SURGE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA. A STRONGER NORTHERLY
SURGE IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...AND THIS COULD
BRING A PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS TO THE LOWER BAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE FLOW...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
ELEVATED SEAS/WAVES AND LIKELY SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ~1.0FT ABOVE NORMAL TODAY FOR ALL
AREAS...AND INTO TONIGHT FOR THE MIDDLE BAY. PREDICTED HIGH TIDE
TONIGHT IS HIGHER THAN AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE TIDAL ANOMALY COULD NUDGE WATER LEVELS AT CAMBRIDGE/BISHOPS
HEAD SLIGHTLY ABOVE 3.0FT MLLW AND NEAR 3.0FT MLLW AT LEWISETTA.
THESE VALUES WOULD FALL JUST SHORT OF MINOR THRESHOLDS. TIDAL
DEPARTURES WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER PERIOD OF
PROLONGED NE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098.
     MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ099-100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/WRS
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...AJZ/TMG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 211804
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
204 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING.
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS IN PLACE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID MORNING UPDATE...SFC LOW OFF THE NE NC COAST AT 1430Z...AND
MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY NEWD. PRECIP QUICKLY DIMINSHING AND MOVING
OFFSHORE AS LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPR SHORT WAVE BEGIN MOVING AWAY
FROM THE AREA. INLAND...SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY...AND HAVE MADE FEW
CHANGES THERE. ALONG THE COAST...CLOUDS WILL TAKE A WHILE TO
CLEAR...AND HAVE THUS DROPPED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS NE
NC...EASTERN VA AND OUR DELMARVA CWA. REST OF FORECAST FROM LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM EARLY MORNING
FORECAST.

EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION...LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS 1006 MB SFC
LOW LIFTING NORTHWARD OFF THE NC COAST. MEANWHILE...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST INTO THE PIEDMONT OF
VA/NC. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW CONTINUES TO FALL
ACROSS EASTERN NC AND FAR SERN VA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE
OVERALL COVERAGE/INTENSITY HAS BEGUN TO WANE IN THE PAST FEW
HOURS. THE SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NE OFF THE NC OBX
THRU THE MORNING. AS IT DOES SO...EXPECTING PCPN TO CONTINUE
ACROSS OUR FAR SE ZONES BUT IN AN OVERALL DIMINISHING TREND. BY
18Z...HIGH RES MODELS HAVE THE SFC LOW OFFSHORE OF THE
DELMARVA...WITH ANY LEFTOVER LIGHT RAIN LIMITED TO IMMEDIATE
COASTAL LOCATIONS AND OFFSHORE. WILL SLOWLY LOWER POPS THROUGH
MIDDAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT
MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TODAY...BEFORE CROSSING THE
MOUNTAINS AND MOVING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT. MODELS
INDICATE LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT...SO
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. WILL MAINTAIN 20-30%
POPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/I-95 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING...PROBABLY DRY
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS
THIS EVENING...WITH SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. WINDS TUNING TO THE W-SW THIS AFTERNOON COUPLED WITH
INCREASING SUNSHINE AND H85 TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND +17C WILL
RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPR 80S MOST PLACES. LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE UPR 50S NW TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE SE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE FA BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE REGION WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR...AND COMFORTABLE MAX TEMPS 75-80 DEGREES. DID MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) ACROSS THE FAR SE IN THE MORNING AS THE
FRONT CLEARS.

THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50 (MID
50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST). A SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
(PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE OH VALLEY/NE
STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE
OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO
PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL STICK TO 20% POPS FOR
NOW. IN GENERAL 12Z GFS KEEPS ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE ECMWF
BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED. HI TEMPS WILL AVG IN THE
MID TO UPR 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 50S TO LWR 60S OVR
MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LO PRES WAS CURRENTLY WELL OFF THE SE VA/NE NC CST...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NNE TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST THIS AFTN INTO
TNGT. EXPECT NW OR W WINDS 5 TO 10 KT THIS AFTN IN BETWEEN THE LO
MOVNG NNE AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FM THE NW. THE COLD FRONT
WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION TNGT INTO EARLY MON MORNG...WITH THE
WINDS SHIFTING FM SW TO NW OR N. JUST A SLGT CHC FOR A SHOWER OR
TSTM WITH THE FRONT...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN PCPN IN THE TAFS.
HI PRES BLDS N OF THE REGION THRU MIDWEEK...AS THE FRONT STALLS
IN THE VICINITY OF THE SE/FL CST. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
MON THRU WED.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING NNE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS LOW WILL ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY AS IT
TRACKS WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A NNE WIND IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS MORNING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE BAY SOUTHWARD AS THE LOW
MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH. A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED 20-25KT WIND IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS. A COLD FRONT THEN
APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CROSSES THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT. THE WIND SHOULD DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN SHIFT TO SW LATE AND INCREASE TO 10-15KT OVER
THE BAY/SOUND RIVERS AND 15-20KT OVER THE OCEAN THIS EVENING. SEAS
SHOULD AVERAGE 5-7FT THROUGH THE DAY...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 4-5FT
TONIGHT. SCAS FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND SOUND WILL RUN THROUGH
17Z...AND THE SCA FOR THE OCEAN WILL RUN THROUGH 08Z TONIGHT AS SEAS
SHOULD BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE...ESPECIALLY OUT NEAR 20NM. THE WIND
SHIFTS TO NW LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE INITIAL CAA SURGE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA. A STRONGER NORTHERLY
SURGE IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...AND THIS COULD
BRING A PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS TO THE LOWER BAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE FLOW...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
ELEVATED SEAS/WAVES AND LIKELY SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ~1.0FT ABOVE NORMAL TODAY FOR ALL
AREAS...AND INTO TONIGHT FOR THE MIDDLE BAY. PREDICTED HIGH TIDE
TONIGHT IS HIGHER THAN AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE TIDAL ANOMALY COULD NUDGE WATER LEVELS AT CAMBRIDGE/BISHOPS
HEAD SLIGHTLY ABOVE 3.0FT MLLW AND NEAR 3.0FT MLLW AT LEWISETTA.
THESE VALUES WOULD FALL JUST SHORT OF MINOR THRESHOLDS. TIDAL
DEPARTURES WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER PERIOD OF
PROLONGED NE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098.
     MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ099-100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/WRS
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...AJZ/TMG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS61 KRNK 211722
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
122 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER MICHIGAN WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND WILL REACH THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL COVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KFCX 88D SHOWED SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA. ADJUSTMENT POPS ACROSS THE FAR WEST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. MODIFIED TEMPERATURES
WITH LATEST OBS AND TREND. RAISED HIGH IN THE EAST A FEW DEGREES
WITH SUNSHINE. MORE CHANGES THIS AFTERNOON.


AS OF 933 AM EDT SUNDAY...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER FOR
THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE CENTER OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
THIS MORNING WILL LIFT NORTH INTO TONIGHT...AS COLD FRONT IN THE
OHIO VALLEY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE HRRR...NAM AND HIRESW-
ARW STILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION IN THE WEST. MORE
CHANGES LATER THIS MORNING...

AS OF 400 AM SUNDAY...

SATELLITE PICTURES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED THAT FOG HAD
DEVELOPED IN THE NEW AND GREENBRIER RIVER VALLEYS THIS MORNING.
THE FOG WILL LIFT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

TIMING OF THE FRONT REMAINS SIMILAR IN THE GUIDANCE AS PAST FEW
RUNS. BULK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 2PM/18Z AND 8PM/00Z. AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
THIS AFTERNOON WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH HEATING THERE IS...HOW FAST
THE CLOUDS ARRIVE FROM THE WEST. MODELS HAVE ENOUGH CAPE AND
SURFACE HEATING TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ALSO CONFINE A
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION TO ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH THE LOW LEVEL WINDS STARTING FROM THE
NORTH THIS MORNING AND BACKING TO THE WEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WEAKENS.

THE FRONT COMES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 00Z/8PM AND
06Z/2AM. DECENT PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND +6 IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA BY
MONDAY MORNING.

EXPECTING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE WESTERN UPSLOPE AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE MOISTURE
WILL BE SHALLOW. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL CLEAR OUT LATE
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE KEEPING CLOUDS BANKED UP AGAINST WESTERN
SLOPES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ONCE THIS TROUGH AXIS TRACKS TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...DRY AIR WILL ERODE
MOUNTAIN CLOUDS WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. DOWNSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO
KEEP CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

FOLLOWING THE PASSING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...A SURGE OF COOLER
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA. DEW POINTS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO LOWER INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN 5F-10F COOLER THAN NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
ALSO MONDAY...PRESSURE RISES WILL BRING BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS
TO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. GUSTS ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE COULD TOP OUT AT 30 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NE STATES ON THURSDAY WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT WESTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO
A PROLONGED EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

MODELS ARE STARTING TO AGREE ON A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
FORMING ACROSS THE SE STATES LATE IN THE WEEK...HOWEVER THERE IS
STILL MAJOR DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT WHICH WILL AFFECT HOW MUCH
MOISTURE CAN GET PULLED UP INTO THE REGION. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE
MUCH DRIER THAN THE ECMWF. DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EASTWARD.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 122 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A COLD FRONT ALONG THE OHIO RIVER WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL SPREAD EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD INCREASE WITH THE APPROACHING
FRONT...AND GUSTS 20-25KTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT A MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 18Z/2PM AND 00Z/8PM AND
THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

WINDS BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. MODELS
WERE SUGGESTING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BANK UP AGAINST THE
WESTERN SLOPS OF THE APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED AT KBLF AND KLWB OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. DRIER AIR
WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
EVENING.

HIGH CONFIDENCES ON CEILING AND VISIBILITIES DURING TAF PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WIND DURING THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR IN THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. RIVER VALLEY FOG
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AT NIGHT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...KK/RCS
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...AMS/KK



000
FXUS61 KRNK 211722
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
122 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER MICHIGAN WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND WILL REACH THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL COVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KFCX 88D SHOWED SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA. ADJUSTMENT POPS ACROSS THE FAR WEST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. MODIFIED TEMPERATURES
WITH LATEST OBS AND TREND. RAISED HIGH IN THE EAST A FEW DEGREES
WITH SUNSHINE. MORE CHANGES THIS AFTERNOON.


AS OF 933 AM EDT SUNDAY...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER FOR
THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE CENTER OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
THIS MORNING WILL LIFT NORTH INTO TONIGHT...AS COLD FRONT IN THE
OHIO VALLEY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE HRRR...NAM AND HIRESW-
ARW STILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION IN THE WEST. MORE
CHANGES LATER THIS MORNING...

AS OF 400 AM SUNDAY...

SATELLITE PICTURES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED THAT FOG HAD
DEVELOPED IN THE NEW AND GREENBRIER RIVER VALLEYS THIS MORNING.
THE FOG WILL LIFT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

TIMING OF THE FRONT REMAINS SIMILAR IN THE GUIDANCE AS PAST FEW
RUNS. BULK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 2PM/18Z AND 8PM/00Z. AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
THIS AFTERNOON WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH HEATING THERE IS...HOW FAST
THE CLOUDS ARRIVE FROM THE WEST. MODELS HAVE ENOUGH CAPE AND
SURFACE HEATING TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ALSO CONFINE A
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION TO ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH THE LOW LEVEL WINDS STARTING FROM THE
NORTH THIS MORNING AND BACKING TO THE WEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WEAKENS.

THE FRONT COMES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 00Z/8PM AND
06Z/2AM. DECENT PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND +6 IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA BY
MONDAY MORNING.

EXPECTING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE WESTERN UPSLOPE AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE MOISTURE
WILL BE SHALLOW. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL CLEAR OUT LATE
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE KEEPING CLOUDS BANKED UP AGAINST WESTERN
SLOPES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ONCE THIS TROUGH AXIS TRACKS TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...DRY AIR WILL ERODE
MOUNTAIN CLOUDS WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. DOWNSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO
KEEP CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

FOLLOWING THE PASSING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...A SURGE OF COOLER
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA. DEW POINTS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO LOWER INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN 5F-10F COOLER THAN NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
ALSO MONDAY...PRESSURE RISES WILL BRING BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS
TO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. GUSTS ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE COULD TOP OUT AT 30 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NE STATES ON THURSDAY WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT WESTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO
A PROLONGED EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

MODELS ARE STARTING TO AGREE ON A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
FORMING ACROSS THE SE STATES LATE IN THE WEEK...HOWEVER THERE IS
STILL MAJOR DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT WHICH WILL AFFECT HOW MUCH
MOISTURE CAN GET PULLED UP INTO THE REGION. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE
MUCH DRIER THAN THE ECMWF. DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EASTWARD.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 122 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A COLD FRONT ALONG THE OHIO RIVER WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL SPREAD EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD INCREASE WITH THE APPROACHING
FRONT...AND GUSTS 20-25KTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT A MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 18Z/2PM AND 00Z/8PM AND
THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

WINDS BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. MODELS
WERE SUGGESTING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BANK UP AGAINST THE
WESTERN SLOPS OF THE APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED AT KBLF AND KLWB OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. DRIER AIR
WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
EVENING.

HIGH CONFIDENCES ON CEILING AND VISIBILITIES DURING TAF PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WIND DURING THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR IN THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. RIVER VALLEY FOG
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AT NIGHT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...KK/RCS
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...AMS/KK



000
FXUS61 KRNK 211722
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
122 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER MICHIGAN WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND WILL REACH THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL COVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KFCX 88D SHOWED SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA. ADJUSTMENT POPS ACROSS THE FAR WEST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. MODIFIED TEMPERATURES
WITH LATEST OBS AND TREND. RAISED HIGH IN THE EAST A FEW DEGREES
WITH SUNSHINE. MORE CHANGES THIS AFTERNOON.


AS OF 933 AM EDT SUNDAY...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER FOR
THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE CENTER OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
THIS MORNING WILL LIFT NORTH INTO TONIGHT...AS COLD FRONT IN THE
OHIO VALLEY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE HRRR...NAM AND HIRESW-
ARW STILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION IN THE WEST. MORE
CHANGES LATER THIS MORNING...

AS OF 400 AM SUNDAY...

SATELLITE PICTURES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED THAT FOG HAD
DEVELOPED IN THE NEW AND GREENBRIER RIVER VALLEYS THIS MORNING.
THE FOG WILL LIFT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

TIMING OF THE FRONT REMAINS SIMILAR IN THE GUIDANCE AS PAST FEW
RUNS. BULK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 2PM/18Z AND 8PM/00Z. AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
THIS AFTERNOON WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH HEATING THERE IS...HOW FAST
THE CLOUDS ARRIVE FROM THE WEST. MODELS HAVE ENOUGH CAPE AND
SURFACE HEATING TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ALSO CONFINE A
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION TO ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH THE LOW LEVEL WINDS STARTING FROM THE
NORTH THIS MORNING AND BACKING TO THE WEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WEAKENS.

THE FRONT COMES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 00Z/8PM AND
06Z/2AM. DECENT PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND +6 IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA BY
MONDAY MORNING.

EXPECTING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE WESTERN UPSLOPE AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE MOISTURE
WILL BE SHALLOW. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL CLEAR OUT LATE
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE KEEPING CLOUDS BANKED UP AGAINST WESTERN
SLOPES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ONCE THIS TROUGH AXIS TRACKS TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...DRY AIR WILL ERODE
MOUNTAIN CLOUDS WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. DOWNSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO
KEEP CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

FOLLOWING THE PASSING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...A SURGE OF COOLER
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA. DEW POINTS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO LOWER INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN 5F-10F COOLER THAN NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
ALSO MONDAY...PRESSURE RISES WILL BRING BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS
TO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. GUSTS ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE COULD TOP OUT AT 30 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NE STATES ON THURSDAY WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT WESTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO
A PROLONGED EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

MODELS ARE STARTING TO AGREE ON A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
FORMING ACROSS THE SE STATES LATE IN THE WEEK...HOWEVER THERE IS
STILL MAJOR DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT WHICH WILL AFFECT HOW MUCH
MOISTURE CAN GET PULLED UP INTO THE REGION. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE
MUCH DRIER THAN THE ECMWF. DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EASTWARD.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 122 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A COLD FRONT ALONG THE OHIO RIVER WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL SPREAD EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD INCREASE WITH THE APPROACHING
FRONT...AND GUSTS 20-25KTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT A MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 18Z/2PM AND 00Z/8PM AND
THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

WINDS BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. MODELS
WERE SUGGESTING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BANK UP AGAINST THE
WESTERN SLOPS OF THE APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED AT KBLF AND KLWB OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. DRIER AIR
WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
EVENING.

HIGH CONFIDENCES ON CEILING AND VISIBILITIES DURING TAF PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WIND DURING THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR IN THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. RIVER VALLEY FOG
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AT NIGHT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...KK/RCS
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...AMS/KK



000
FXUS61 KRNK 211722
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
122 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER MICHIGAN WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND WILL REACH THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL COVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KFCX 88D SHOWED SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA. ADJUSTMENT POPS ACROSS THE FAR WEST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. MODIFIED TEMPERATURES
WITH LATEST OBS AND TREND. RAISED HIGH IN THE EAST A FEW DEGREES
WITH SUNSHINE. MORE CHANGES THIS AFTERNOON.


AS OF 933 AM EDT SUNDAY...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER FOR
THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE CENTER OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
THIS MORNING WILL LIFT NORTH INTO TONIGHT...AS COLD FRONT IN THE
OHIO VALLEY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE HRRR...NAM AND HIRESW-
ARW STILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION IN THE WEST. MORE
CHANGES LATER THIS MORNING...

AS OF 400 AM SUNDAY...

SATELLITE PICTURES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED THAT FOG HAD
DEVELOPED IN THE NEW AND GREENBRIER RIVER VALLEYS THIS MORNING.
THE FOG WILL LIFT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

TIMING OF THE FRONT REMAINS SIMILAR IN THE GUIDANCE AS PAST FEW
RUNS. BULK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 2PM/18Z AND 8PM/00Z. AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
THIS AFTERNOON WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH HEATING THERE IS...HOW FAST
THE CLOUDS ARRIVE FROM THE WEST. MODELS HAVE ENOUGH CAPE AND
SURFACE HEATING TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ALSO CONFINE A
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION TO ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH THE LOW LEVEL WINDS STARTING FROM THE
NORTH THIS MORNING AND BACKING TO THE WEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WEAKENS.

THE FRONT COMES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 00Z/8PM AND
06Z/2AM. DECENT PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND +6 IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA BY
MONDAY MORNING.

EXPECTING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE WESTERN UPSLOPE AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE MOISTURE
WILL BE SHALLOW. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL CLEAR OUT LATE
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE KEEPING CLOUDS BANKED UP AGAINST WESTERN
SLOPES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ONCE THIS TROUGH AXIS TRACKS TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...DRY AIR WILL ERODE
MOUNTAIN CLOUDS WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. DOWNSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO
KEEP CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

FOLLOWING THE PASSING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...A SURGE OF COOLER
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA. DEW POINTS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO LOWER INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN 5F-10F COOLER THAN NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
ALSO MONDAY...PRESSURE RISES WILL BRING BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS
TO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. GUSTS ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE COULD TOP OUT AT 30 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NE STATES ON THURSDAY WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT WESTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO
A PROLONGED EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

MODELS ARE STARTING TO AGREE ON A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
FORMING ACROSS THE SE STATES LATE IN THE WEEK...HOWEVER THERE IS
STILL MAJOR DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT WHICH WILL AFFECT HOW MUCH
MOISTURE CAN GET PULLED UP INTO THE REGION. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE
MUCH DRIER THAN THE ECMWF. DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EASTWARD.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 122 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A COLD FRONT ALONG THE OHIO RIVER WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL SPREAD EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD INCREASE WITH THE APPROACHING
FRONT...AND GUSTS 20-25KTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT A MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 18Z/2PM AND 00Z/8PM AND
THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

WINDS BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. MODELS
WERE SUGGESTING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BANK UP AGAINST THE
WESTERN SLOPS OF THE APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED AT KBLF AND KLWB OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. DRIER AIR
WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
EVENING.

HIGH CONFIDENCES ON CEILING AND VISIBILITIES DURING TAF PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WIND DURING THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR IN THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. RIVER VALLEY FOG
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AT NIGHT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...KK/RCS
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...AMS/KK



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 211441
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1041 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING.
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS IN PLACE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID MORNING UPDATE...SFC LOW OFF THE NE NC COAST AT 1430Z...AND
MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY NEWD. PRECIP QUICKLY DIMINSHING AND MOVING
OFFSHORE AS LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPR SHORT WAVE BEGIN MOVING AWAY
FROM THE AREA. INLAND...SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY...AND HAVE MADE FEW
CHANGES THERE. ALONG THE COAST...CLOUDS WILL TAKE A WHILE TO
CLEAR...AND HAVE THUS DROPPED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS NE
NC...EASTERN VA AND OUR DELMARVA CWA. REST OF FORECAST FROM LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM EARLY MORNING
FORECAST.

EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION...LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS 1006 MB SFC
LOW LIFTING NORTHWARD OFF THE NC COAST. MEANWHILE...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST INTO THE PIEDMONT OF
VA/NC. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW CONTINUES TO FALL
ACROSS EASTERN NC AND FAR SERN VA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE
OVERALL COVERAGE/INTENSITY HAS BEGUN TO WANE IN THE PAST FEW
HOURS. THE SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NE OFF THE NC OBX
THRU THE MORNING. AS IT DOES SO...EXPECTING PCPN TO CONTINUE
ACROSS OUR FAR SE ZONES BUT IN AN OVERALL DIMINISHING TREND. BY
18Z...HIGH RES MODELS HAVE THE SFC LOW OFFSHORE OF THE
DELMARVA...WITH ANY LEFTOVER LIGHT RAIN LIMITED TO IMMEDIATE
COASTAL LOCATIONS AND OFFSHORE. WILL SLOWLY LOWER POPS THROUGH
MIDDAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT
MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TODAY...BEFORE CROSSING THE
MOUNTAINS AND MOVING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT. MODELS
INDICATE LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT...SO
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. WILL MAINTAIN 20-30%
POPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/I-95 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING...PROBABLY DRY
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS
THIS EVENING...WITH SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. WINDS TUNING TO THE W-SW THIS AFTERNOON COUPLED WITH
INCREASING SUNSHINE AND H85 TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND +17C WILL
RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPR 80S MOST PLACES. LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE UPR 50S NW TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE SE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE FA BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE REGION WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR...AND COMFORTABLE MAX TEMPS 75-80 DEGREES. DID MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) ACROSS THE FAR SE IN THE MORNING AS THE
FRONT CLEARS.

THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50 (MID
50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST). A SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
(PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE OH VALLEY/NE
STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE
OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO
PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL STICK TO 20% POPS FOR
NOW. IN GENERAL 12Z GFS KEEPS ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE ECMWF
BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED. HI TEMPS WILL AVG IN THE
MID TO UPR 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 50S TO LWR 60S OVR
MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS PRESENTLY (AS OF 06Z) TRACKING NNE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING BACK THROUGH
THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. RA OVER ERN NC IS STRUGGLING TO MOVE N OF THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THE HIGH TO THE N. ECG
COULD EXPERIENCE OCCASIONAL -RA THROUGH 12Z...BUT SHOULD BE LIGHT
ENOUGH TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON VSBY. STRATUS AT SBY SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH 13-14Z...AND IFR AT ORF SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED.
ELSEWHERE...STRATUS IS DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN.
THIS COULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT RIC/PHF...SO TEMPO IFR HAS BEEN
INCLUDED AT BOTH TERMINALS BEGINNING 08-09Z AND ENDING 12Z. THE
LOW SHOULD QUICKLY PULLS OFF TO THE NE LATER THIS MORNING...WITH
THE WIND SHIFTING FROM NE TO NW ALONG WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM
THE NW. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER TODAY AND
CROSSES THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO SW LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
ALONG AND NW OF A LINE FROM RIC TO SBY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS N OF
THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS IN VICINITY OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING NNE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS LOW WILL ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY AS IT
TRACKS WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A NNE WIND IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS MORNING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE BAY SOUTHWARD AS THE LOW
MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH. A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED 20-25KT WIND IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS. A COLD FRONT THEN
APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CROSSES THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT. THE WIND SHOULD DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN SHIFT TO SW LATE AND INCREASE TO 10-15KT OVER
THE BAY/SOUND RIVERS AND 15-20KT OVER THE OCEAN THIS EVENING. SEAS
SHOULD AVERAGE 5-7FT THROUGH THE DAY...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 4-5FT
TONIGHT. SCAS FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND SOUND WILL RUN THROUGH
17Z...AND THE SCA FOR THE OCEAN WILL RUN THROUGH 08Z TONIGHT AS SEAS
SHOULD BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE...ESPECIALLY OUT NEAR 20NM. THE WIND
SHIFTS TO NW LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE INITIAL CAA SURGE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA. A STRONGER NORTHERLY
SURGE IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...AND THIS COULD
BRING A PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS TO THE LOWER BAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE FLOW...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
ELEVATED SEAS/WAVES AND LIKELY SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ~1.0FT ABOVE NORMAL TODAY FOR ALL
AREAS...AND INTO TONIGHT FOR THE MIDDLE BAY. PREDICTED HIGH TIDE
TONIGHT IS HIGHER THAN AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE TIDAL ANOMALY COULD NUDGE WATER LEVELS AT CAMBRIDGE/BISHOPS
HEAD SLIGHTLY ABOVE 3.0FT MLLW AND NEAR 3.0FT MLLW AT LEWISETTA.
THESE VALUES WOULD FALL JUST SHORT OF MINOR THRESHOLDS. TIDAL
DEPARTURES WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER PERIOD OF
PROLONGED NE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098.
     MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ099-100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/WRS
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...AJZ/TMG
MARINE...AJZ/TMG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 211441
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1041 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING.
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS IN PLACE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID MORNING UPDATE...SFC LOW OFF THE NE NC COAST AT 1430Z...AND
MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY NEWD. PRECIP QUICKLY DIMINSHING AND MOVING
OFFSHORE AS LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPR SHORT WAVE BEGIN MOVING AWAY
FROM THE AREA. INLAND...SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY...AND HAVE MADE FEW
CHANGES THERE. ALONG THE COAST...CLOUDS WILL TAKE A WHILE TO
CLEAR...AND HAVE THUS DROPPED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS NE
NC...EASTERN VA AND OUR DELMARVA CWA. REST OF FORECAST FROM LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM EARLY MORNING
FORECAST.

EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION...LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS 1006 MB SFC
LOW LIFTING NORTHWARD OFF THE NC COAST. MEANWHILE...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST INTO THE PIEDMONT OF
VA/NC. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW CONTINUES TO FALL
ACROSS EASTERN NC AND FAR SERN VA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE
OVERALL COVERAGE/INTENSITY HAS BEGUN TO WANE IN THE PAST FEW
HOURS. THE SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NE OFF THE NC OBX
THRU THE MORNING. AS IT DOES SO...EXPECTING PCPN TO CONTINUE
ACROSS OUR FAR SE ZONES BUT IN AN OVERALL DIMINISHING TREND. BY
18Z...HIGH RES MODELS HAVE THE SFC LOW OFFSHORE OF THE
DELMARVA...WITH ANY LEFTOVER LIGHT RAIN LIMITED TO IMMEDIATE
COASTAL LOCATIONS AND OFFSHORE. WILL SLOWLY LOWER POPS THROUGH
MIDDAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT
MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TODAY...BEFORE CROSSING THE
MOUNTAINS AND MOVING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT. MODELS
INDICATE LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT...SO
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. WILL MAINTAIN 20-30%
POPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/I-95 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING...PROBABLY DRY
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS
THIS EVENING...WITH SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. WINDS TUNING TO THE W-SW THIS AFTERNOON COUPLED WITH
INCREASING SUNSHINE AND H85 TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND +17C WILL
RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPR 80S MOST PLACES. LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE UPR 50S NW TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE SE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE FA BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE REGION WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR...AND COMFORTABLE MAX TEMPS 75-80 DEGREES. DID MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) ACROSS THE FAR SE IN THE MORNING AS THE
FRONT CLEARS.

THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50 (MID
50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST). A SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
(PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE OH VALLEY/NE
STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE
OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO
PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL STICK TO 20% POPS FOR
NOW. IN GENERAL 12Z GFS KEEPS ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE ECMWF
BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED. HI TEMPS WILL AVG IN THE
MID TO UPR 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 50S TO LWR 60S OVR
MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS PRESENTLY (AS OF 06Z) TRACKING NNE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING BACK THROUGH
THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. RA OVER ERN NC IS STRUGGLING TO MOVE N OF THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THE HIGH TO THE N. ECG
COULD EXPERIENCE OCCASIONAL -RA THROUGH 12Z...BUT SHOULD BE LIGHT
ENOUGH TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON VSBY. STRATUS AT SBY SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH 13-14Z...AND IFR AT ORF SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED.
ELSEWHERE...STRATUS IS DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN.
THIS COULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT RIC/PHF...SO TEMPO IFR HAS BEEN
INCLUDED AT BOTH TERMINALS BEGINNING 08-09Z AND ENDING 12Z. THE
LOW SHOULD QUICKLY PULLS OFF TO THE NE LATER THIS MORNING...WITH
THE WIND SHIFTING FROM NE TO NW ALONG WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM
THE NW. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER TODAY AND
CROSSES THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO SW LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
ALONG AND NW OF A LINE FROM RIC TO SBY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS N OF
THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS IN VICINITY OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING NNE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS LOW WILL ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY AS IT
TRACKS WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A NNE WIND IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS MORNING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE BAY SOUTHWARD AS THE LOW
MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH. A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED 20-25KT WIND IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS. A COLD FRONT THEN
APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CROSSES THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT. THE WIND SHOULD DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN SHIFT TO SW LATE AND INCREASE TO 10-15KT OVER
THE BAY/SOUND RIVERS AND 15-20KT OVER THE OCEAN THIS EVENING. SEAS
SHOULD AVERAGE 5-7FT THROUGH THE DAY...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 4-5FT
TONIGHT. SCAS FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND SOUND WILL RUN THROUGH
17Z...AND THE SCA FOR THE OCEAN WILL RUN THROUGH 08Z TONIGHT AS SEAS
SHOULD BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE...ESPECIALLY OUT NEAR 20NM. THE WIND
SHIFTS TO NW LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE INITIAL CAA SURGE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA. A STRONGER NORTHERLY
SURGE IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...AND THIS COULD
BRING A PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS TO THE LOWER BAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE FLOW...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
ELEVATED SEAS/WAVES AND LIKELY SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ~1.0FT ABOVE NORMAL TODAY FOR ALL
AREAS...AND INTO TONIGHT FOR THE MIDDLE BAY. PREDICTED HIGH TIDE
TONIGHT IS HIGHER THAN AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE TIDAL ANOMALY COULD NUDGE WATER LEVELS AT CAMBRIDGE/BISHOPS
HEAD SLIGHTLY ABOVE 3.0FT MLLW AND NEAR 3.0FT MLLW AT LEWISETTA.
THESE VALUES WOULD FALL JUST SHORT OF MINOR THRESHOLDS. TIDAL
DEPARTURES WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER PERIOD OF
PROLONGED NE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098.
     MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ099-100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/WRS
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...AJZ/TMG
MARINE...AJZ/TMG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 211441
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1041 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING.
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS IN PLACE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID MORNING UPDATE...SFC LOW OFF THE NE NC COAST AT 1430Z...AND
MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY NEWD. PRECIP QUICKLY DIMINSHING AND MOVING
OFFSHORE AS LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPR SHORT WAVE BEGIN MOVING AWAY
FROM THE AREA. INLAND...SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY...AND HAVE MADE FEW
CHANGES THERE. ALONG THE COAST...CLOUDS WILL TAKE A WHILE TO
CLEAR...AND HAVE THUS DROPPED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS NE
NC...EASTERN VA AND OUR DELMARVA CWA. REST OF FORECAST FROM LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM EARLY MORNING
FORECAST.

EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION...LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS 1006 MB SFC
LOW LIFTING NORTHWARD OFF THE NC COAST. MEANWHILE...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST INTO THE PIEDMONT OF
VA/NC. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW CONTINUES TO FALL
ACROSS EASTERN NC AND FAR SERN VA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE
OVERALL COVERAGE/INTENSITY HAS BEGUN TO WANE IN THE PAST FEW
HOURS. THE SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NE OFF THE NC OBX
THRU THE MORNING. AS IT DOES SO...EXPECTING PCPN TO CONTINUE
ACROSS OUR FAR SE ZONES BUT IN AN OVERALL DIMINISHING TREND. BY
18Z...HIGH RES MODELS HAVE THE SFC LOW OFFSHORE OF THE
DELMARVA...WITH ANY LEFTOVER LIGHT RAIN LIMITED TO IMMEDIATE
COASTAL LOCATIONS AND OFFSHORE. WILL SLOWLY LOWER POPS THROUGH
MIDDAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT
MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TODAY...BEFORE CROSSING THE
MOUNTAINS AND MOVING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT. MODELS
INDICATE LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT...SO
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. WILL MAINTAIN 20-30%
POPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/I-95 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING...PROBABLY DRY
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS
THIS EVENING...WITH SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. WINDS TUNING TO THE W-SW THIS AFTERNOON COUPLED WITH
INCREASING SUNSHINE AND H85 TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND +17C WILL
RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPR 80S MOST PLACES. LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE UPR 50S NW TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE SE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE FA BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE REGION WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR...AND COMFORTABLE MAX TEMPS 75-80 DEGREES. DID MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) ACROSS THE FAR SE IN THE MORNING AS THE
FRONT CLEARS.

THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50 (MID
50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST). A SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
(PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE OH VALLEY/NE
STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE
OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO
PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL STICK TO 20% POPS FOR
NOW. IN GENERAL 12Z GFS KEEPS ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE ECMWF
BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED. HI TEMPS WILL AVG IN THE
MID TO UPR 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 50S TO LWR 60S OVR
MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS PRESENTLY (AS OF 06Z) TRACKING NNE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING BACK THROUGH
THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. RA OVER ERN NC IS STRUGGLING TO MOVE N OF THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THE HIGH TO THE N. ECG
COULD EXPERIENCE OCCASIONAL -RA THROUGH 12Z...BUT SHOULD BE LIGHT
ENOUGH TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON VSBY. STRATUS AT SBY SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH 13-14Z...AND IFR AT ORF SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED.
ELSEWHERE...STRATUS IS DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN.
THIS COULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT RIC/PHF...SO TEMPO IFR HAS BEEN
INCLUDED AT BOTH TERMINALS BEGINNING 08-09Z AND ENDING 12Z. THE
LOW SHOULD QUICKLY PULLS OFF TO THE NE LATER THIS MORNING...WITH
THE WIND SHIFTING FROM NE TO NW ALONG WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM
THE NW. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER TODAY AND
CROSSES THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO SW LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
ALONG AND NW OF A LINE FROM RIC TO SBY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS N OF
THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS IN VICINITY OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING NNE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS LOW WILL ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY AS IT
TRACKS WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A NNE WIND IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS MORNING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE BAY SOUTHWARD AS THE LOW
MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH. A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED 20-25KT WIND IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS. A COLD FRONT THEN
APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CROSSES THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT. THE WIND SHOULD DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN SHIFT TO SW LATE AND INCREASE TO 10-15KT OVER
THE BAY/SOUND RIVERS AND 15-20KT OVER THE OCEAN THIS EVENING. SEAS
SHOULD AVERAGE 5-7FT THROUGH THE DAY...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 4-5FT
TONIGHT. SCAS FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND SOUND WILL RUN THROUGH
17Z...AND THE SCA FOR THE OCEAN WILL RUN THROUGH 08Z TONIGHT AS SEAS
SHOULD BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE...ESPECIALLY OUT NEAR 20NM. THE WIND
SHIFTS TO NW LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE INITIAL CAA SURGE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA. A STRONGER NORTHERLY
SURGE IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...AND THIS COULD
BRING A PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS TO THE LOWER BAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE FLOW...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
ELEVATED SEAS/WAVES AND LIKELY SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ~1.0FT ABOVE NORMAL TODAY FOR ALL
AREAS...AND INTO TONIGHT FOR THE MIDDLE BAY. PREDICTED HIGH TIDE
TONIGHT IS HIGHER THAN AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE TIDAL ANOMALY COULD NUDGE WATER LEVELS AT CAMBRIDGE/BISHOPS
HEAD SLIGHTLY ABOVE 3.0FT MLLW AND NEAR 3.0FT MLLW AT LEWISETTA.
THESE VALUES WOULD FALL JUST SHORT OF MINOR THRESHOLDS. TIDAL
DEPARTURES WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER PERIOD OF
PROLONGED NE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098.
     MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ099-100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/WRS
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...AJZ/TMG
MARINE...AJZ/TMG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 211441
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1041 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING.
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS IN PLACE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID MORNING UPDATE...SFC LOW OFF THE NE NC COAST AT 1430Z...AND
MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY NEWD. PRECIP QUICKLY DIMINSHING AND MOVING
OFFSHORE AS LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPR SHORT WAVE BEGIN MOVING AWAY
FROM THE AREA. INLAND...SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY...AND HAVE MADE FEW
CHANGES THERE. ALONG THE COAST...CLOUDS WILL TAKE A WHILE TO
CLEAR...AND HAVE THUS DROPPED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS NE
NC...EASTERN VA AND OUR DELMARVA CWA. REST OF FORECAST FROM LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM EARLY MORNING
FORECAST.

EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION...LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS 1006 MB SFC
LOW LIFTING NORTHWARD OFF THE NC COAST. MEANWHILE...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST INTO THE PIEDMONT OF
VA/NC. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW CONTINUES TO FALL
ACROSS EASTERN NC AND FAR SERN VA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE
OVERALL COVERAGE/INTENSITY HAS BEGUN TO WANE IN THE PAST FEW
HOURS. THE SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NE OFF THE NC OBX
THRU THE MORNING. AS IT DOES SO...EXPECTING PCPN TO CONTINUE
ACROSS OUR FAR SE ZONES BUT IN AN OVERALL DIMINISHING TREND. BY
18Z...HIGH RES MODELS HAVE THE SFC LOW OFFSHORE OF THE
DELMARVA...WITH ANY LEFTOVER LIGHT RAIN LIMITED TO IMMEDIATE
COASTAL LOCATIONS AND OFFSHORE. WILL SLOWLY LOWER POPS THROUGH
MIDDAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT
MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TODAY...BEFORE CROSSING THE
MOUNTAINS AND MOVING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT. MODELS
INDICATE LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT...SO
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. WILL MAINTAIN 20-30%
POPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/I-95 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING...PROBABLY DRY
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS
THIS EVENING...WITH SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. WINDS TUNING TO THE W-SW THIS AFTERNOON COUPLED WITH
INCREASING SUNSHINE AND H85 TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND +17C WILL
RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPR 80S MOST PLACES. LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE UPR 50S NW TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE SE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE FA BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE REGION WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR...AND COMFORTABLE MAX TEMPS 75-80 DEGREES. DID MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) ACROSS THE FAR SE IN THE MORNING AS THE
FRONT CLEARS.

THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50 (MID
50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST). A SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
(PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE OH VALLEY/NE
STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE
OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO
PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL STICK TO 20% POPS FOR
NOW. IN GENERAL 12Z GFS KEEPS ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE ECMWF
BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED. HI TEMPS WILL AVG IN THE
MID TO UPR 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 50S TO LWR 60S OVR
MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS PRESENTLY (AS OF 06Z) TRACKING NNE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING BACK THROUGH
THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. RA OVER ERN NC IS STRUGGLING TO MOVE N OF THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THE HIGH TO THE N. ECG
COULD EXPERIENCE OCCASIONAL -RA THROUGH 12Z...BUT SHOULD BE LIGHT
ENOUGH TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON VSBY. STRATUS AT SBY SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH 13-14Z...AND IFR AT ORF SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED.
ELSEWHERE...STRATUS IS DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN.
THIS COULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT RIC/PHF...SO TEMPO IFR HAS BEEN
INCLUDED AT BOTH TERMINALS BEGINNING 08-09Z AND ENDING 12Z. THE
LOW SHOULD QUICKLY PULLS OFF TO THE NE LATER THIS MORNING...WITH
THE WIND SHIFTING FROM NE TO NW ALONG WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM
THE NW. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER TODAY AND
CROSSES THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO SW LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
ALONG AND NW OF A LINE FROM RIC TO SBY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS N OF
THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS IN VICINITY OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING NNE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS LOW WILL ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY AS IT
TRACKS WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A NNE WIND IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS MORNING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE BAY SOUTHWARD AS THE LOW
MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH. A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED 20-25KT WIND IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS. A COLD FRONT THEN
APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CROSSES THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT. THE WIND SHOULD DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN SHIFT TO SW LATE AND INCREASE TO 10-15KT OVER
THE BAY/SOUND RIVERS AND 15-20KT OVER THE OCEAN THIS EVENING. SEAS
SHOULD AVERAGE 5-7FT THROUGH THE DAY...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 4-5FT
TONIGHT. SCAS FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND SOUND WILL RUN THROUGH
17Z...AND THE SCA FOR THE OCEAN WILL RUN THROUGH 08Z TONIGHT AS SEAS
SHOULD BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE...ESPECIALLY OUT NEAR 20NM. THE WIND
SHIFTS TO NW LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE INITIAL CAA SURGE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA. A STRONGER NORTHERLY
SURGE IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...AND THIS COULD
BRING A PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS TO THE LOWER BAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE FLOW...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
ELEVATED SEAS/WAVES AND LIKELY SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ~1.0FT ABOVE NORMAL TODAY FOR ALL
AREAS...AND INTO TONIGHT FOR THE MIDDLE BAY. PREDICTED HIGH TIDE
TONIGHT IS HIGHER THAN AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE TIDAL ANOMALY COULD NUDGE WATER LEVELS AT CAMBRIDGE/BISHOPS
HEAD SLIGHTLY ABOVE 3.0FT MLLW AND NEAR 3.0FT MLLW AT LEWISETTA.
THESE VALUES WOULD FALL JUST SHORT OF MINOR THRESHOLDS. TIDAL
DEPARTURES WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER PERIOD OF
PROLONGED NE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098.
     MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ099-100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/WRS
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...AJZ/TMG
MARINE...AJZ/TMG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS61 KLWX 211438
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1038 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST INTO
THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A RETURN OF HIGH
PRESSURE MONDAY THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE...WITH EFFECTS
GENERALLY EAST OF OUR AREA. LOW CLOUDS OVER BALTIMORE HAVE BEEN
SLOW TO MOVE OUT BUT WILL SCATTER THROUGH MIDDAY.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM OHIO WITH A LEADING BAND OF RAIN
SHOWERS APPROACHING THE ALLEGHENY FRONT (ETA BETWEEN 11 AND NOON).
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...EXPECT SWLY
FLOW WHICH WILL INCREASE TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS. MAX TEMPS BUMPED UP
TO THE MID TO UPR 80S. THE INITIAL LINE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. THERE
SHOULD BE A LULL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE
RECHARGES...THEN SHOWERS AND UP TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE...ISOLATED AT BEST EAST. THE LATEST HRRR RUNS (10
AND 11Z) HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THIS INITIAL BAND...BUT CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP MORE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS
MINIMAL...BUT A MINOR WIND THREAT IS PRESENT WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH EAST THROUGH THE BALT-
WASH METRO THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

NWLY FLOW INCREASES BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTING 20 TO 25 MPH LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE. NO FOG TONIGHT WITH MIXING...MIN TEMPS
MID TO UPR 50S INLAND...LOW TO MID 60S NEAR SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC ON MONDAY BRINGING
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S WEST TO THE MID 40S TO 50S EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HIPRES WL BE ACROSS MOST OF THE ERN CONUS THRU THE END OF THE
WK. H5 RDG WL BE BLDG TOO. AT FIRST GLANCE...THAT WUD SEEM LIKE A
CUT-N-DRY FCST. HWVR...THERE IS A CATCH.

ECMWF GDNC SUGGESTING A CUTOFF LOW IN THE MIDST OF THE H5 RDG...OR
IN OTHER WORDS...A WEAKNESS IN THE HGT PTTN. THERE/S RATHER POOR
AGREEMENT ON A FEATURE SO SUBTLE SVRL DAYS OUT. HWVR...SFC FLOW WL
BE NLY TUE BUT VEER ELY WED-THU...AS THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH WL
BE ATOP NEW ENGLAND/NYS BY THEN. AT THE VERY LEAST...CANNOT RULE OUT
AN INCREASE IN MSTR AND MAYBE A SPRINKLE OR TWO /OR A PATCH OF DZ?/.
SO AT THIS JUNCTURE...WL KEEP TUE SUNNY...BRING CLDS INLAND WED...
AND OFFER UP SOME LOW END POPS /20-30 PCT/ WED NGT-THU. CHOOSING A
STRATIFORM PCP CHARACTER.

AM THINKING AS THE UPR RDG BLDS TO THE W OF THE AREA...THAT MAY BE
ENUF TO ALLOW SFC RDGG TO RETROGRADE. IF THAT DOES HPPN...THEN WE/LL
LOSE THE ONSHORE FLOW...AND THE MARINE AMS WL LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE
RGN. DONT HV THE HIEST OF CONFIDENCE IN THIS OUTLOOK...BUT DONT WANT
TO CARRY A PROLONGED PD OF LOW POPS UNDER HIPRES W/O A CLEARER
SIGNAL.

CAN SAY THIS...HIER HGTS WL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPS. MAXT TUE-THU NOT
FAR OFF FM BAY WATER TEMPS...WHICH IS ABT 5 OR 6 DEGF COOLER THAN
CLIMO. WE/LL BE BACK NEAR NORMAL AGN FRI-SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...DECREASING TO ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR DC METROS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING WLY FLOW. ANY
IMPACT TO THE DC METROS IS IN 21-00Z TIMEFRAME. NWLY FLOW BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT GUSTS TO 20 KT...NO FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MON-TUE...VFR UNDER HIPRES.
WED-THU...ONSHORE FLOW MAY BRING A STRATUS DECK INLAND. FLGT
RESTRICTIONS PSBL...BUT CONFIDENCE LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS TODAY EXCEPT WHERE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THIS EVENING. SCA CONDITIONS IN NWLY FLOW
GUSTING TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.

NLY FLOW TUE WL VEER ELY FOR WED-THU. GDNC SUGGESTING ELY FLOW MAY BE
STIFF...POTENTIALLY SUPPORTING SCA CONDS OVER A PORTION OF THE
WATERS /MID BAY/.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
NLY FLOW HAS DECREASED DEPARTURES TO THREE QUARTERS OF A FOOT OR
LESS. A BRIEF SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS EVENING MAY RAISE LEVELS
AGAIN...SO SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH THE
PREFERRED HIGH TIDE OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT WITH GUSTY NWLY FLOW THAT WILL FURTHER DECREASE
DEPARTURES. THIS IS A COMPLICATED ISSUE AND WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/HTS
NEAR TERM...BAJ/KRW
SHORT TERM...KRW
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...BAJ/HTS/KRW
MARINE...BAJ/HTS/KRW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BAJ










000
FXUS61 KLWX 211438
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1038 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST INTO
THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A RETURN OF HIGH
PRESSURE MONDAY THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE...WITH EFFECTS
GENERALLY EAST OF OUR AREA. LOW CLOUDS OVER BALTIMORE HAVE BEEN
SLOW TO MOVE OUT BUT WILL SCATTER THROUGH MIDDAY.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM OHIO WITH A LEADING BAND OF RAIN
SHOWERS APPROACHING THE ALLEGHENY FRONT (ETA BETWEEN 11 AND NOON).
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...EXPECT SWLY
FLOW WHICH WILL INCREASE TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS. MAX TEMPS BUMPED UP
TO THE MID TO UPR 80S. THE INITIAL LINE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. THERE
SHOULD BE A LULL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE
RECHARGES...THEN SHOWERS AND UP TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE...ISOLATED AT BEST EAST. THE LATEST HRRR RUNS (10
AND 11Z) HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THIS INITIAL BAND...BUT CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP MORE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS
MINIMAL...BUT A MINOR WIND THREAT IS PRESENT WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH EAST THROUGH THE BALT-
WASH METRO THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

NWLY FLOW INCREASES BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTING 20 TO 25 MPH LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE. NO FOG TONIGHT WITH MIXING...MIN TEMPS
MID TO UPR 50S INLAND...LOW TO MID 60S NEAR SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC ON MONDAY BRINGING
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S WEST TO THE MID 40S TO 50S EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HIPRES WL BE ACROSS MOST OF THE ERN CONUS THRU THE END OF THE
WK. H5 RDG WL BE BLDG TOO. AT FIRST GLANCE...THAT WUD SEEM LIKE A
CUT-N-DRY FCST. HWVR...THERE IS A CATCH.

ECMWF GDNC SUGGESTING A CUTOFF LOW IN THE MIDST OF THE H5 RDG...OR
IN OTHER WORDS...A WEAKNESS IN THE HGT PTTN. THERE/S RATHER POOR
AGREEMENT ON A FEATURE SO SUBTLE SVRL DAYS OUT. HWVR...SFC FLOW WL
BE NLY TUE BUT VEER ELY WED-THU...AS THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH WL
BE ATOP NEW ENGLAND/NYS BY THEN. AT THE VERY LEAST...CANNOT RULE OUT
AN INCREASE IN MSTR AND MAYBE A SPRINKLE OR TWO /OR A PATCH OF DZ?/.
SO AT THIS JUNCTURE...WL KEEP TUE SUNNY...BRING CLDS INLAND WED...
AND OFFER UP SOME LOW END POPS /20-30 PCT/ WED NGT-THU. CHOOSING A
STRATIFORM PCP CHARACTER.

AM THINKING AS THE UPR RDG BLDS TO THE W OF THE AREA...THAT MAY BE
ENUF TO ALLOW SFC RDGG TO RETROGRADE. IF THAT DOES HPPN...THEN WE/LL
LOSE THE ONSHORE FLOW...AND THE MARINE AMS WL LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE
RGN. DONT HV THE HIEST OF CONFIDENCE IN THIS OUTLOOK...BUT DONT WANT
TO CARRY A PROLONGED PD OF LOW POPS UNDER HIPRES W/O A CLEARER
SIGNAL.

CAN SAY THIS...HIER HGTS WL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPS. MAXT TUE-THU NOT
FAR OFF FM BAY WATER TEMPS...WHICH IS ABT 5 OR 6 DEGF COOLER THAN
CLIMO. WE/LL BE BACK NEAR NORMAL AGN FRI-SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...DECREASING TO ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR DC METROS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING WLY FLOW. ANY
IMPACT TO THE DC METROS IS IN 21-00Z TIMEFRAME. NWLY FLOW BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT GUSTS TO 20 KT...NO FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MON-TUE...VFR UNDER HIPRES.
WED-THU...ONSHORE FLOW MAY BRING A STRATUS DECK INLAND. FLGT
RESTRICTIONS PSBL...BUT CONFIDENCE LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS TODAY EXCEPT WHERE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THIS EVENING. SCA CONDITIONS IN NWLY FLOW
GUSTING TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.

NLY FLOW TUE WL VEER ELY FOR WED-THU. GDNC SUGGESTING ELY FLOW MAY BE
STIFF...POTENTIALLY SUPPORTING SCA CONDS OVER A PORTION OF THE
WATERS /MID BAY/.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
NLY FLOW HAS DECREASED DEPARTURES TO THREE QUARTERS OF A FOOT OR
LESS. A BRIEF SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS EVENING MAY RAISE LEVELS
AGAIN...SO SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH THE
PREFERRED HIGH TIDE OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT WITH GUSTY NWLY FLOW THAT WILL FURTHER DECREASE
DEPARTURES. THIS IS A COMPLICATED ISSUE AND WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/HTS
NEAR TERM...BAJ/KRW
SHORT TERM...KRW
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...BAJ/HTS/KRW
MARINE...BAJ/HTS/KRW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BAJ










000
FXUS61 KLWX 211438
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1038 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST INTO
THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A RETURN OF HIGH
PRESSURE MONDAY THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE...WITH EFFECTS
GENERALLY EAST OF OUR AREA. LOW CLOUDS OVER BALTIMORE HAVE BEEN
SLOW TO MOVE OUT BUT WILL SCATTER THROUGH MIDDAY.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM OHIO WITH A LEADING BAND OF RAIN
SHOWERS APPROACHING THE ALLEGHENY FRONT (ETA BETWEEN 11 AND NOON).
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...EXPECT SWLY
FLOW WHICH WILL INCREASE TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS. MAX TEMPS BUMPED UP
TO THE MID TO UPR 80S. THE INITIAL LINE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. THERE
SHOULD BE A LULL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE
RECHARGES...THEN SHOWERS AND UP TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE...ISOLATED AT BEST EAST. THE LATEST HRRR RUNS (10
AND 11Z) HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THIS INITIAL BAND...BUT CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP MORE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS
MINIMAL...BUT A MINOR WIND THREAT IS PRESENT WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH EAST THROUGH THE BALT-
WASH METRO THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

NWLY FLOW INCREASES BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTING 20 TO 25 MPH LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE. NO FOG TONIGHT WITH MIXING...MIN TEMPS
MID TO UPR 50S INLAND...LOW TO MID 60S NEAR SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC ON MONDAY BRINGING
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S WEST TO THE MID 40S TO 50S EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HIPRES WL BE ACROSS MOST OF THE ERN CONUS THRU THE END OF THE
WK. H5 RDG WL BE BLDG TOO. AT FIRST GLANCE...THAT WUD SEEM LIKE A
CUT-N-DRY FCST. HWVR...THERE IS A CATCH.

ECMWF GDNC SUGGESTING A CUTOFF LOW IN THE MIDST OF THE H5 RDG...OR
IN OTHER WORDS...A WEAKNESS IN THE HGT PTTN. THERE/S RATHER POOR
AGREEMENT ON A FEATURE SO SUBTLE SVRL DAYS OUT. HWVR...SFC FLOW WL
BE NLY TUE BUT VEER ELY WED-THU...AS THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH WL
BE ATOP NEW ENGLAND/NYS BY THEN. AT THE VERY LEAST...CANNOT RULE OUT
AN INCREASE IN MSTR AND MAYBE A SPRINKLE OR TWO /OR A PATCH OF DZ?/.
SO AT THIS JUNCTURE...WL KEEP TUE SUNNY...BRING CLDS INLAND WED...
AND OFFER UP SOME LOW END POPS /20-30 PCT/ WED NGT-THU. CHOOSING A
STRATIFORM PCP CHARACTER.

AM THINKING AS THE UPR RDG BLDS TO THE W OF THE AREA...THAT MAY BE
ENUF TO ALLOW SFC RDGG TO RETROGRADE. IF THAT DOES HPPN...THEN WE/LL
LOSE THE ONSHORE FLOW...AND THE MARINE AMS WL LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE
RGN. DONT HV THE HIEST OF CONFIDENCE IN THIS OUTLOOK...BUT DONT WANT
TO CARRY A PROLONGED PD OF LOW POPS UNDER HIPRES W/O A CLEARER
SIGNAL.

CAN SAY THIS...HIER HGTS WL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPS. MAXT TUE-THU NOT
FAR OFF FM BAY WATER TEMPS...WHICH IS ABT 5 OR 6 DEGF COOLER THAN
CLIMO. WE/LL BE BACK NEAR NORMAL AGN FRI-SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...DECREASING TO ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR DC METROS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING WLY FLOW. ANY
IMPACT TO THE DC METROS IS IN 21-00Z TIMEFRAME. NWLY FLOW BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT GUSTS TO 20 KT...NO FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MON-TUE...VFR UNDER HIPRES.
WED-THU...ONSHORE FLOW MAY BRING A STRATUS DECK INLAND. FLGT
RESTRICTIONS PSBL...BUT CONFIDENCE LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS TODAY EXCEPT WHERE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THIS EVENING. SCA CONDITIONS IN NWLY FLOW
GUSTING TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.

NLY FLOW TUE WL VEER ELY FOR WED-THU. GDNC SUGGESTING ELY FLOW MAY BE
STIFF...POTENTIALLY SUPPORTING SCA CONDS OVER A PORTION OF THE
WATERS /MID BAY/.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
NLY FLOW HAS DECREASED DEPARTURES TO THREE QUARTERS OF A FOOT OR
LESS. A BRIEF SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS EVENING MAY RAISE LEVELS
AGAIN...SO SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH THE
PREFERRED HIGH TIDE OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT WITH GUSTY NWLY FLOW THAT WILL FURTHER DECREASE
DEPARTURES. THIS IS A COMPLICATED ISSUE AND WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/HTS
NEAR TERM...BAJ/KRW
SHORT TERM...KRW
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...BAJ/HTS/KRW
MARINE...BAJ/HTS/KRW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BAJ










000
FXUS61 KLWX 211438
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1038 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST INTO
THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A RETURN OF HIGH
PRESSURE MONDAY THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE...WITH EFFECTS
GENERALLY EAST OF OUR AREA. LOW CLOUDS OVER BALTIMORE HAVE BEEN
SLOW TO MOVE OUT BUT WILL SCATTER THROUGH MIDDAY.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM OHIO WITH A LEADING BAND OF RAIN
SHOWERS APPROACHING THE ALLEGHENY FRONT (ETA BETWEEN 11 AND NOON).
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...EXPECT SWLY
FLOW WHICH WILL INCREASE TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS. MAX TEMPS BUMPED UP
TO THE MID TO UPR 80S. THE INITIAL LINE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. THERE
SHOULD BE A LULL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE
RECHARGES...THEN SHOWERS AND UP TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE...ISOLATED AT BEST EAST. THE LATEST HRRR RUNS (10
AND 11Z) HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THIS INITIAL BAND...BUT CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP MORE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS
MINIMAL...BUT A MINOR WIND THREAT IS PRESENT WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH EAST THROUGH THE BALT-
WASH METRO THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

NWLY FLOW INCREASES BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTING 20 TO 25 MPH LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE. NO FOG TONIGHT WITH MIXING...MIN TEMPS
MID TO UPR 50S INLAND...LOW TO MID 60S NEAR SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC ON MONDAY BRINGING
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S WEST TO THE MID 40S TO 50S EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HIPRES WL BE ACROSS MOST OF THE ERN CONUS THRU THE END OF THE
WK. H5 RDG WL BE BLDG TOO. AT FIRST GLANCE...THAT WUD SEEM LIKE A
CUT-N-DRY FCST. HWVR...THERE IS A CATCH.

ECMWF GDNC SUGGESTING A CUTOFF LOW IN THE MIDST OF THE H5 RDG...OR
IN OTHER WORDS...A WEAKNESS IN THE HGT PTTN. THERE/S RATHER POOR
AGREEMENT ON A FEATURE SO SUBTLE SVRL DAYS OUT. HWVR...SFC FLOW WL
BE NLY TUE BUT VEER ELY WED-THU...AS THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH WL
BE ATOP NEW ENGLAND/NYS BY THEN. AT THE VERY LEAST...CANNOT RULE OUT
AN INCREASE IN MSTR AND MAYBE A SPRINKLE OR TWO /OR A PATCH OF DZ?/.
SO AT THIS JUNCTURE...WL KEEP TUE SUNNY...BRING CLDS INLAND WED...
AND OFFER UP SOME LOW END POPS /20-30 PCT/ WED NGT-THU. CHOOSING A
STRATIFORM PCP CHARACTER.

AM THINKING AS THE UPR RDG BLDS TO THE W OF THE AREA...THAT MAY BE
ENUF TO ALLOW SFC RDGG TO RETROGRADE. IF THAT DOES HPPN...THEN WE/LL
LOSE THE ONSHORE FLOW...AND THE MARINE AMS WL LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE
RGN. DONT HV THE HIEST OF CONFIDENCE IN THIS OUTLOOK...BUT DONT WANT
TO CARRY A PROLONGED PD OF LOW POPS UNDER HIPRES W/O A CLEARER
SIGNAL.

CAN SAY THIS...HIER HGTS WL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPS. MAXT TUE-THU NOT
FAR OFF FM BAY WATER TEMPS...WHICH IS ABT 5 OR 6 DEGF COOLER THAN
CLIMO. WE/LL BE BACK NEAR NORMAL AGN FRI-SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...DECREASING TO ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR DC METROS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING WLY FLOW. ANY
IMPACT TO THE DC METROS IS IN 21-00Z TIMEFRAME. NWLY FLOW BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT GUSTS TO 20 KT...NO FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MON-TUE...VFR UNDER HIPRES.
WED-THU...ONSHORE FLOW MAY BRING A STRATUS DECK INLAND. FLGT
RESTRICTIONS PSBL...BUT CONFIDENCE LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS TODAY EXCEPT WHERE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THIS EVENING. SCA CONDITIONS IN NWLY FLOW
GUSTING TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.

NLY FLOW TUE WL VEER ELY FOR WED-THU. GDNC SUGGESTING ELY FLOW MAY BE
STIFF...POTENTIALLY SUPPORTING SCA CONDS OVER A PORTION OF THE
WATERS /MID BAY/.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
NLY FLOW HAS DECREASED DEPARTURES TO THREE QUARTERS OF A FOOT OR
LESS. A BRIEF SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS EVENING MAY RAISE LEVELS
AGAIN...SO SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH THE
PREFERRED HIGH TIDE OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT WITH GUSTY NWLY FLOW THAT WILL FURTHER DECREASE
DEPARTURES. THIS IS A COMPLICATED ISSUE AND WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/HTS
NEAR TERM...BAJ/KRW
SHORT TERM...KRW
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...BAJ/HTS/KRW
MARINE...BAJ/HTS/KRW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BAJ










000
FXUS61 KRNK 211333
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
933 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER MICHIGAN WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND WILL REACH THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL COVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 933 AM EDT SUNDAY...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER FOR
THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE CENTER OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
THIS MORNING WILL LIFT NORTH INTO TONIGHT...AS COLD FRONT IN THE
OHIO VALLEY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE HRRR...NAM AND HIRESW-
ARW STILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION IN THE WEST. MORE
CHANGES LATER THIS MORNING...

AS OF 400 AM SUNDAY...

SATELLITE PICTURES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED THAT FOG HAD
DEVELOPED IN THE NEW AND GREENBRIER RIVER VALLEYS THIS MORNING.
THE FOG WILL LIFT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

TIMING OF THE FRONT REMAINS SIMILAR IN THE GUIDANCE AS PAST FEW
RUNS. BULK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 2PM/18Z AND 8PM/00Z. AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
THIS AFTERNOON WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH HEATING THERE IS...HOW FAST
THE CLOUDS ARRIVE FROM THE WEST. MODELS HAVE ENOUGH CAPE AND
SURFACE HEATING TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ALSO CONFINE A
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION TO ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH THE LOW LEVEL WINDS STARTING FROM THE
NORTH THIS MORNING AND BACKING TO THE WEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WEAKENS.

THE FRONT COMES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 00Z/8PM AND
06Z/2AM. DECENT PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND +6 IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA BY
MONDAY MORNING.

EXPECTING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE WESTERN UPSLOPE AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE MOISTURE
WILL BE SHALLOW. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL CLEAR OUT LATE
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE KEEPING CLOUDS BANKED UP AGAINST WESTERN
SLOPES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ONCE THIS TROUGH AXIS TRACKS TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...DRY AIR WILL ERODE
MOUNTAIN CLOUDS WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. DOWNSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO
KEEP CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

FOLLOWING THE PASSING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...A SURGE OF COOLER
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA. DEW POINTS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO LOWER INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN 5F-10F COOLER THAN NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
ALSO MONDAY...PRESSURE RISES WILL BRING BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS
TO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. GUSTS ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE COULD TOP OUT AT 30 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A 1032MB SURFACE HIGH THAT
STARTS IN SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH
OVER THE NE STATES BY SATURDAY. THE RESULT OF THIS WILL BE AN
EASTERLY WEDGE FLOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT OF A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW BY THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF TO OUR WEST...WHICH WILL IMPACT HOW MUCH MOISTURE CAN GET
PULLED INTO THE REGION. AT THIS POINT TRENDED TOWARD HPC AND THE
DRIER GFS SOLUTIONS AND KEPT JUST LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ANY
PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL LIKELY BE JUST PATCHY DRIZZLE WITH LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATION.

WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS AS THE MODELS ARE TYPICALLY TOO
WARM WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW. EXPECT SURFACE HIGHS OF MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO LOW 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 740 AM EDT SUNDAY...

SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED A CLEAR SKY OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN
VIRGINIA WITH CLOUDS IN THE EAST. FOG WAS OBSERVED ALONG THE NEW
RIVER AND GREENBRIER RIVER...RESULTING IN LIFR VISIBILITIES AT
KLWB AND KBCB.

THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 14Z/10AM....BUT MOISTURE ADVANCING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS INTO THE
MOUNTAINS BY LATE MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN
THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE WITH
THE APPROACHING FRONT...AND GUSTS 20-25KTS ARE POSSIBLE BY THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT A MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 12Z/2PM AND 00Z/8PM AND
THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

WINDS BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. MODELS
WERE SUGGESTING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BANK UP AGAINST THE
WESTERN SLOPS OF THE APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT. HAVE ADDED MVFR
CEILINGS AT KBLF AND KLWB AFTER MIDNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR IN THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL STILL
BE POSSIBLE AT NIGHT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...KK/RCS
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...AMS/PH



000
FXUS61 KRNK 211142
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
742 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER MICHIGAN WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND WILL REACH THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL COVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM SUNDAY...

SATELLITE PICTURES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED THAT FOG HAD
DEVELOPED IN THE NEW AND GREENBRIER RIVER VALLEYS THIS MORNING.
THE FOG WILL LIFT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

TIMING OF THE FRONT REMAINS SIMILAR IN THE GUIDANCE AS PAST FEW
RUNS. BULK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 2PM/18Z AND 8PM/00Z. AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
THIS AFTERNOON WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH HEATING THERE IS...HOW FAST
THE CLOUDS ARRIVE FROM THE WEST. MODELS HAVE ENOUGH CAPE AND
SURFACE HEATING TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ALSO CONFINE A
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION TO ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH THE LOW LEVEL WINDS STARTING FROM THE
NORTH THIS MORNING AND BACKING TO THE WEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WEAKENS.

THE FRONT COMES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 00Z/8PM AND
06Z/2AM. DECENT PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND +6 IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA BY
MONDAY MORNING.

EXPECTING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE WESTERN UPSLOPE AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE MOISTURE
WILL BE SHALLOW. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL CLEAR OUT LATE
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE KEEPING CLOUDS BANKED UP AGAINST WESTERN
SLOPES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ONCE THIS TROUGH AXIS TRACKS TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...DRY AIR WILL ERODE
MOUNTAIN CLOUDS WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. DOWNSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO
KEEP CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

FOLLOWING THE PASSING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...A SURGE OF COOLER
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA. DEW POINTS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO LOWER INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN 5F-10F COOLER THAN NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
ALSO MONDAY...PRESSURE RISES WILL BRING BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS
TO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. GUSTS ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE COULD TOP OUT AT 30 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A 1032MB SURFACE HIGH THAT
STARTS IN SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH
OVER THE NE STATES BY SATURDAY. THE RESULT OF THIS WILL BE AN
EASTERLY WEDGE FLOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT OF A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW BY THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF TO OUR WEST...WHICH WILL IMPACT HOW MUCH MOISTURE CAN GET
PULLED INTO THE REGION. AT THIS POINT TRENDED TOWARD HPC AND THE
DRIER GFS SOLUTIONS AND KEPT JUST LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ANY
PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL LIKELY BE JUST PATCHY DRIZZLE WITH LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATION.

WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS AS THE MODELS ARE TYPICALLY TOO
WARM WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW. EXPECT SURFACE HIGHS OF MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO LOW 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 740 AM EDT SUNDAY...

SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED A CLEAR SKY OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN
VIRGINIA WITH CLOUDS IN THE EAST. FOG WAS OBSERVED ALONG THE NEW
RIVER AND GREENBRIER RIVER...RESULTING IN LIFR VISIBILITIES AT
KLWB AND KBCB.

THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 14Z/10AM....BUT MOISTURE ADVANCING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS INTO THE
MOUNTAINS BY LATE MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN
THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE WITH
THE APPROACHING FRONT...AND GUSTS 20-25KTS ARE POSSIBLE BY THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT A MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 12Z/2PM AND 00Z/8PM AND
THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

WINDS BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. MODELS
WERE SUGGESTING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BANK UP AGAINST THE
WESTERN SLOPS OF THE APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT. HAVE ADDED MVFR
CEILINGS AT KBLF AND KLWB AFTER MIDNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR IN THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL STILL
BE POSSIBLE AT NIGHT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...AMS/PH



000
FXUS61 KRNK 211142
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
742 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER MICHIGAN WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND WILL REACH THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL COVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM SUNDAY...

SATELLITE PICTURES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED THAT FOG HAD
DEVELOPED IN THE NEW AND GREENBRIER RIVER VALLEYS THIS MORNING.
THE FOG WILL LIFT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

TIMING OF THE FRONT REMAINS SIMILAR IN THE GUIDANCE AS PAST FEW
RUNS. BULK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 2PM/18Z AND 8PM/00Z. AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
THIS AFTERNOON WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH HEATING THERE IS...HOW FAST
THE CLOUDS ARRIVE FROM THE WEST. MODELS HAVE ENOUGH CAPE AND
SURFACE HEATING TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ALSO CONFINE A
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION TO ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH THE LOW LEVEL WINDS STARTING FROM THE
NORTH THIS MORNING AND BACKING TO THE WEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WEAKENS.

THE FRONT COMES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 00Z/8PM AND
06Z/2AM. DECENT PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND +6 IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA BY
MONDAY MORNING.

EXPECTING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE WESTERN UPSLOPE AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE MOISTURE
WILL BE SHALLOW. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL CLEAR OUT LATE
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE KEEPING CLOUDS BANKED UP AGAINST WESTERN
SLOPES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ONCE THIS TROUGH AXIS TRACKS TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...DRY AIR WILL ERODE
MOUNTAIN CLOUDS WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. DOWNSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO
KEEP CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

FOLLOWING THE PASSING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...A SURGE OF COOLER
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA. DEW POINTS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO LOWER INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN 5F-10F COOLER THAN NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
ALSO MONDAY...PRESSURE RISES WILL BRING BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS
TO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. GUSTS ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE COULD TOP OUT AT 30 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A 1032MB SURFACE HIGH THAT
STARTS IN SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH
OVER THE NE STATES BY SATURDAY. THE RESULT OF THIS WILL BE AN
EASTERLY WEDGE FLOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT OF A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW BY THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF TO OUR WEST...WHICH WILL IMPACT HOW MUCH MOISTURE CAN GET
PULLED INTO THE REGION. AT THIS POINT TRENDED TOWARD HPC AND THE
DRIER GFS SOLUTIONS AND KEPT JUST LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ANY
PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL LIKELY BE JUST PATCHY DRIZZLE WITH LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATION.

WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS AS THE MODELS ARE TYPICALLY TOO
WARM WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW. EXPECT SURFACE HIGHS OF MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO LOW 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 740 AM EDT SUNDAY...

SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED A CLEAR SKY OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN
VIRGINIA WITH CLOUDS IN THE EAST. FOG WAS OBSERVED ALONG THE NEW
RIVER AND GREENBRIER RIVER...RESULTING IN LIFR VISIBILITIES AT
KLWB AND KBCB.

THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 14Z/10AM....BUT MOISTURE ADVANCING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS INTO THE
MOUNTAINS BY LATE MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN
THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE WITH
THE APPROACHING FRONT...AND GUSTS 20-25KTS ARE POSSIBLE BY THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT A MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 12Z/2PM AND 00Z/8PM AND
THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

WINDS BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. MODELS
WERE SUGGESTING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BANK UP AGAINST THE
WESTERN SLOPS OF THE APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT. HAVE ADDED MVFR
CEILINGS AT KBLF AND KLWB AFTER MIDNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR IN THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL STILL
BE POSSIBLE AT NIGHT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...AMS/PH



000
FXUS61 KRNK 211142
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
742 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER MICHIGAN WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND WILL REACH THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL COVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM SUNDAY...

SATELLITE PICTURES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED THAT FOG HAD
DEVELOPED IN THE NEW AND GREENBRIER RIVER VALLEYS THIS MORNING.
THE FOG WILL LIFT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

TIMING OF THE FRONT REMAINS SIMILAR IN THE GUIDANCE AS PAST FEW
RUNS. BULK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 2PM/18Z AND 8PM/00Z. AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
THIS AFTERNOON WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH HEATING THERE IS...HOW FAST
THE CLOUDS ARRIVE FROM THE WEST. MODELS HAVE ENOUGH CAPE AND
SURFACE HEATING TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ALSO CONFINE A
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION TO ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH THE LOW LEVEL WINDS STARTING FROM THE
NORTH THIS MORNING AND BACKING TO THE WEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WEAKENS.

THE FRONT COMES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 00Z/8PM AND
06Z/2AM. DECENT PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND +6 IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA BY
MONDAY MORNING.

EXPECTING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE WESTERN UPSLOPE AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE MOISTURE
WILL BE SHALLOW. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL CLEAR OUT LATE
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE KEEPING CLOUDS BANKED UP AGAINST WESTERN
SLOPES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ONCE THIS TROUGH AXIS TRACKS TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...DRY AIR WILL ERODE
MOUNTAIN CLOUDS WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. DOWNSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO
KEEP CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

FOLLOWING THE PASSING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...A SURGE OF COOLER
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA. DEW POINTS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO LOWER INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN 5F-10F COOLER THAN NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
ALSO MONDAY...PRESSURE RISES WILL BRING BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS
TO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. GUSTS ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE COULD TOP OUT AT 30 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A 1032MB SURFACE HIGH THAT
STARTS IN SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH
OVER THE NE STATES BY SATURDAY. THE RESULT OF THIS WILL BE AN
EASTERLY WEDGE FLOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT OF A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW BY THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF TO OUR WEST...WHICH WILL IMPACT HOW MUCH MOISTURE CAN GET
PULLED INTO THE REGION. AT THIS POINT TRENDED TOWARD HPC AND THE
DRIER GFS SOLUTIONS AND KEPT JUST LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ANY
PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL LIKELY BE JUST PATCHY DRIZZLE WITH LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATION.

WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS AS THE MODELS ARE TYPICALLY TOO
WARM WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW. EXPECT SURFACE HIGHS OF MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO LOW 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 740 AM EDT SUNDAY...

SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED A CLEAR SKY OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN
VIRGINIA WITH CLOUDS IN THE EAST. FOG WAS OBSERVED ALONG THE NEW
RIVER AND GREENBRIER RIVER...RESULTING IN LIFR VISIBILITIES AT
KLWB AND KBCB.

THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 14Z/10AM....BUT MOISTURE ADVANCING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS INTO THE
MOUNTAINS BY LATE MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN
THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE WITH
THE APPROACHING FRONT...AND GUSTS 20-25KTS ARE POSSIBLE BY THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT A MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 12Z/2PM AND 00Z/8PM AND
THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

WINDS BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. MODELS
WERE SUGGESTING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BANK UP AGAINST THE
WESTERN SLOPS OF THE APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT. HAVE ADDED MVFR
CEILINGS AT KBLF AND KLWB AFTER MIDNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR IN THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL STILL
BE POSSIBLE AT NIGHT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...AMS/PH



000
FXUS61 KRNK 211142
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
742 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER MICHIGAN WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND WILL REACH THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL COVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM SUNDAY...

SATELLITE PICTURES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED THAT FOG HAD
DEVELOPED IN THE NEW AND GREENBRIER RIVER VALLEYS THIS MORNING.
THE FOG WILL LIFT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

TIMING OF THE FRONT REMAINS SIMILAR IN THE GUIDANCE AS PAST FEW
RUNS. BULK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 2PM/18Z AND 8PM/00Z. AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
THIS AFTERNOON WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH HEATING THERE IS...HOW FAST
THE CLOUDS ARRIVE FROM THE WEST. MODELS HAVE ENOUGH CAPE AND
SURFACE HEATING TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ALSO CONFINE A
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION TO ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH THE LOW LEVEL WINDS STARTING FROM THE
NORTH THIS MORNING AND BACKING TO THE WEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WEAKENS.

THE FRONT COMES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 00Z/8PM AND
06Z/2AM. DECENT PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND +6 IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA BY
MONDAY MORNING.

EXPECTING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE WESTERN UPSLOPE AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE MOISTURE
WILL BE SHALLOW. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL CLEAR OUT LATE
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE KEEPING CLOUDS BANKED UP AGAINST WESTERN
SLOPES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ONCE THIS TROUGH AXIS TRACKS TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...DRY AIR WILL ERODE
MOUNTAIN CLOUDS WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. DOWNSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO
KEEP CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

FOLLOWING THE PASSING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...A SURGE OF COOLER
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA. DEW POINTS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO LOWER INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN 5F-10F COOLER THAN NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
ALSO MONDAY...PRESSURE RISES WILL BRING BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS
TO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. GUSTS ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE COULD TOP OUT AT 30 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A 1032MB SURFACE HIGH THAT
STARTS IN SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH
OVER THE NE STATES BY SATURDAY. THE RESULT OF THIS WILL BE AN
EASTERLY WEDGE FLOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT OF A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW BY THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF TO OUR WEST...WHICH WILL IMPACT HOW MUCH MOISTURE CAN GET
PULLED INTO THE REGION. AT THIS POINT TRENDED TOWARD HPC AND THE
DRIER GFS SOLUTIONS AND KEPT JUST LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ANY
PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL LIKELY BE JUST PATCHY DRIZZLE WITH LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATION.

WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS AS THE MODELS ARE TYPICALLY TOO
WARM WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW. EXPECT SURFACE HIGHS OF MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO LOW 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 740 AM EDT SUNDAY...

SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED A CLEAR SKY OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN
VIRGINIA WITH CLOUDS IN THE EAST. FOG WAS OBSERVED ALONG THE NEW
RIVER AND GREENBRIER RIVER...RESULTING IN LIFR VISIBILITIES AT
KLWB AND KBCB.

THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 14Z/10AM....BUT MOISTURE ADVANCING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS INTO THE
MOUNTAINS BY LATE MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN
THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE WITH
THE APPROACHING FRONT...AND GUSTS 20-25KTS ARE POSSIBLE BY THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT A MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 12Z/2PM AND 00Z/8PM AND
THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

WINDS BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. MODELS
WERE SUGGESTING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BANK UP AGAINST THE
WESTERN SLOPS OF THE APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT. HAVE ADDED MVFR
CEILINGS AT KBLF AND KLWB AFTER MIDNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR IN THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL STILL
BE POSSIBLE AT NIGHT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...AMS/PH



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 211058
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
658 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING.
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS IN PLACE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS 1006 MB SFC LOW LIFTING NORTHWARD OFF
THE NC COAST. MEANWHILE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST INTO THE PIEDMONT OF VA/NC. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COASTAL LOW CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS EASTERN NC AND FAR SERN VA
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL COVERAGE/INTENSITY HAS BEGUN
TO WANE IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
QUICKLY NE OFF THE NC OBX THRU THE MORNING. AS IT DOES
SO...EXPECTING PCPN TO CONTINUE ACROSS OUR FAR SE ZONES BUT IN AN
OVERALL DIMINISHING TREND. BY 18Z...HIGH RES MODELS HAVE THE SFC
LOW OFFSHORE OF THE DELMARVA...WITH ANY LEFTOVER LIGHT RAIN
LIMITED TO IMMEDIATE COASTAL LOCATIONS AND OFFSHORE. WILL SLOWLY
LOWER POPS THROUGH MIDDAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT THAT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TODAY...BEFORE
CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS AND MOVING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA
OVERNIGHT. MODELS INDICATE LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE
ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT...SO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED. WILL MAINTAIN 20-30% POPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/I-95
CORRIDOR THIS EVENING...PROBABLY DRY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. HAVE
ALSO INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS THIS EVENING...WITH SOME
MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS TUNING TO
THE W-SW THIS AFTERNOON COUPLED WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AND H85
TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND +17C WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MID/UPR 80S MOST PLACES. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPR 50S NW TO NEAR 70
ALONG THE SE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE FA BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE REGION WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR...AND COMFORTABLE MAX TEMPS 75-80 DEGREES. DID MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) ACROSS THE FAR SE IN THE MORNING AS THE
FRONT CLEARS.

THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50 (MID
50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST). A SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
(PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE OH VALLEY/NE
STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE
OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO
PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL STICK TO 20% POPS FOR
NOW. IN GENERAL 12Z GFS KEEPS ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE ECMWF
BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED. HI TEMPS WILL AVG IN THE
MID TO UPR 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 50S TO LWR 60S OVR
MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS PRESENTLY (AS OF 06Z) TRACKING NNE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING BACK THROUGH
THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. RA OVER ERN NC IS STRUGGLING TO MOVE N OF THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THE HIGH TO THE N. ECG
COULD EXPERIENCE OCCASIONAL -RA THROUGH 12Z...BUT SHOULD BE LIGHT
ENOUGH TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON VSBY. STRATUS AT SBY SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH 13-14Z...AND IFR AT ORF SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED.
ELSEWHERE...STRATUS IS DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN.
THIS COULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT RIC/PHF...SO TEMPO IFR HAS BEEN
INCLUDED AT BOTH TERMINALS BEGINNING 08-09Z AND ENDING 12Z. THE
LOW SHOULD QUICKLY PULLS OFF TO THE NE LATER THIS MORNING...WITH
THE WIND SHIFTING FROM NE TO NW ALONG WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM
THE NW. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER TODAY AND
CROSSES THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO SW LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
ALONG AND NW OF A LINE FROM RIC TO SBY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS N OF
THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS IN VICINITY OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING NNE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS LOW WILL ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY AS IT
TRACKS WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A NNE WIND IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS MORNING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE BAY SOUTHWARD AS THE LOW
MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH. A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED 20-25KT WIND IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS. A COLD FRONT THEN
APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CROSSES THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT. THE WIND SHOULD DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN SHIFT TO SW LATE AND INCREASE TO 10-15KT OVER
THE BAY/SOUND RIVERS AND 15-20KT OVER THE OCEAN THIS EVENING. SEAS
SHOULD AVERAGE 5-7FT THROUGH THE DAY...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 4-5FT
TONIGHT. SCAS FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND SOUND WILL RUN THROUGH
17Z...AND THE SCA FOR THE OCEAN WILL RUN THROUGH 08Z TONIGHT AS SEAS
SHOULD BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE...ESPECIALLY OUT NEAR 20NM. THE WIND
SHIFTS TO NW LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE INITIAL CAA SURGE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA. A STRONGER NORTHERLY
SURGE IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...AND THIS COULD
BRING A PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS TO THE LOWER BAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE FLOW...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
ELEVATED SEAS/WAVES AND LIKELY SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ~1.0FT ABOVE NORMAL TODAY FOR ALL
AREAS...AND INTO TONIGHT FOR THE MIDDLE BAY. PREDICTED HIGH TIDE
TONIGHT IS HIGHER THAN AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE TIDAL ANOMALY COULD NUDGE WATER LEVELS AT CAMBRIDGE/BISHOPS
HEAD SLIGHTLY ABOVE 3.0FT MLLW AND NEAR 3.0FT MLLW AT LEWISETTA.
THESE VALUES WOULD FALL JUST SHORT OF MINOR THRESHOLDS. TIDAL
DEPARTURES WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER PERIOD OF
PROLONGED NE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098.
     MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ099-100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 211058
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
658 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING.
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS IN PLACE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS 1006 MB SFC LOW LIFTING NORTHWARD OFF
THE NC COAST. MEANWHILE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST INTO THE PIEDMONT OF VA/NC. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COASTAL LOW CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS EASTERN NC AND FAR SERN VA
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL COVERAGE/INTENSITY HAS BEGUN
TO WANE IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
QUICKLY NE OFF THE NC OBX THRU THE MORNING. AS IT DOES
SO...EXPECTING PCPN TO CONTINUE ACROSS OUR FAR SE ZONES BUT IN AN
OVERALL DIMINISHING TREND. BY 18Z...HIGH RES MODELS HAVE THE SFC
LOW OFFSHORE OF THE DELMARVA...WITH ANY LEFTOVER LIGHT RAIN
LIMITED TO IMMEDIATE COASTAL LOCATIONS AND OFFSHORE. WILL SLOWLY
LOWER POPS THROUGH MIDDAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT THAT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TODAY...BEFORE
CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS AND MOVING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA
OVERNIGHT. MODELS INDICATE LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE
ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT...SO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED. WILL MAINTAIN 20-30% POPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/I-95
CORRIDOR THIS EVENING...PROBABLY DRY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. HAVE
ALSO INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS THIS EVENING...WITH SOME
MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS TUNING TO
THE W-SW THIS AFTERNOON COUPLED WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AND H85
TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND +17C WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MID/UPR 80S MOST PLACES. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPR 50S NW TO NEAR 70
ALONG THE SE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE FA BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE REGION WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR...AND COMFORTABLE MAX TEMPS 75-80 DEGREES. DID MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) ACROSS THE FAR SE IN THE MORNING AS THE
FRONT CLEARS.

THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50 (MID
50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST). A SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
(PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE OH VALLEY/NE
STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE
OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO
PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL STICK TO 20% POPS FOR
NOW. IN GENERAL 12Z GFS KEEPS ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE ECMWF
BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED. HI TEMPS WILL AVG IN THE
MID TO UPR 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 50S TO LWR 60S OVR
MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS PRESENTLY (AS OF 06Z) TRACKING NNE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING BACK THROUGH
THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. RA OVER ERN NC IS STRUGGLING TO MOVE N OF THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THE HIGH TO THE N. ECG
COULD EXPERIENCE OCCASIONAL -RA THROUGH 12Z...BUT SHOULD BE LIGHT
ENOUGH TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON VSBY. STRATUS AT SBY SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH 13-14Z...AND IFR AT ORF SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED.
ELSEWHERE...STRATUS IS DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN.
THIS COULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT RIC/PHF...SO TEMPO IFR HAS BEEN
INCLUDED AT BOTH TERMINALS BEGINNING 08-09Z AND ENDING 12Z. THE
LOW SHOULD QUICKLY PULLS OFF TO THE NE LATER THIS MORNING...WITH
THE WIND SHIFTING FROM NE TO NW ALONG WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM
THE NW. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER TODAY AND
CROSSES THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO SW LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
ALONG AND NW OF A LINE FROM RIC TO SBY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS N OF
THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS IN VICINITY OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING NNE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS LOW WILL ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY AS IT
TRACKS WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A NNE WIND IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS MORNING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE BAY SOUTHWARD AS THE LOW
MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH. A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED 20-25KT WIND IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS. A COLD FRONT THEN
APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CROSSES THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT. THE WIND SHOULD DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN SHIFT TO SW LATE AND INCREASE TO 10-15KT OVER
THE BAY/SOUND RIVERS AND 15-20KT OVER THE OCEAN THIS EVENING. SEAS
SHOULD AVERAGE 5-7FT THROUGH THE DAY...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 4-5FT
TONIGHT. SCAS FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND SOUND WILL RUN THROUGH
17Z...AND THE SCA FOR THE OCEAN WILL RUN THROUGH 08Z TONIGHT AS SEAS
SHOULD BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE...ESPECIALLY OUT NEAR 20NM. THE WIND
SHIFTS TO NW LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE INITIAL CAA SURGE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA. A STRONGER NORTHERLY
SURGE IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...AND THIS COULD
BRING A PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS TO THE LOWER BAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE FLOW...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
ELEVATED SEAS/WAVES AND LIKELY SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ~1.0FT ABOVE NORMAL TODAY FOR ALL
AREAS...AND INTO TONIGHT FOR THE MIDDLE BAY. PREDICTED HIGH TIDE
TONIGHT IS HIGHER THAN AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE TIDAL ANOMALY COULD NUDGE WATER LEVELS AT CAMBRIDGE/BISHOPS
HEAD SLIGHTLY ABOVE 3.0FT MLLW AND NEAR 3.0FT MLLW AT LEWISETTA.
THESE VALUES WOULD FALL JUST SHORT OF MINOR THRESHOLDS. TIDAL
DEPARTURES WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER PERIOD OF
PROLONGED NE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098.
     MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ099-100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 211058
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
658 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING.
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS IN PLACE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS 1006 MB SFC LOW LIFTING NORTHWARD OFF
THE NC COAST. MEANWHILE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST INTO THE PIEDMONT OF VA/NC. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COASTAL LOW CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS EASTERN NC AND FAR SERN VA
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL COVERAGE/INTENSITY HAS BEGUN
TO WANE IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
QUICKLY NE OFF THE NC OBX THRU THE MORNING. AS IT DOES
SO...EXPECTING PCPN TO CONTINUE ACROSS OUR FAR SE ZONES BUT IN AN
OVERALL DIMINISHING TREND. BY 18Z...HIGH RES MODELS HAVE THE SFC
LOW OFFSHORE OF THE DELMARVA...WITH ANY LEFTOVER LIGHT RAIN
LIMITED TO IMMEDIATE COASTAL LOCATIONS AND OFFSHORE. WILL SLOWLY
LOWER POPS THROUGH MIDDAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT THAT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TODAY...BEFORE
CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS AND MOVING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA
OVERNIGHT. MODELS INDICATE LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE
ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT...SO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED. WILL MAINTAIN 20-30% POPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/I-95
CORRIDOR THIS EVENING...PROBABLY DRY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. HAVE
ALSO INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS THIS EVENING...WITH SOME
MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS TUNING TO
THE W-SW THIS AFTERNOON COUPLED WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AND H85
TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND +17C WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MID/UPR 80S MOST PLACES. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPR 50S NW TO NEAR 70
ALONG THE SE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE FA BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE REGION WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR...AND COMFORTABLE MAX TEMPS 75-80 DEGREES. DID MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) ACROSS THE FAR SE IN THE MORNING AS THE
FRONT CLEARS.

THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50 (MID
50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST). A SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
(PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE OH VALLEY/NE
STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE
OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO
PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL STICK TO 20% POPS FOR
NOW. IN GENERAL 12Z GFS KEEPS ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE ECMWF
BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED. HI TEMPS WILL AVG IN THE
MID TO UPR 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 50S TO LWR 60S OVR
MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS PRESENTLY (AS OF 06Z) TRACKING NNE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING BACK THROUGH
THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. RA OVER ERN NC IS STRUGGLING TO MOVE N OF THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THE HIGH TO THE N. ECG
COULD EXPERIENCE OCCASIONAL -RA THROUGH 12Z...BUT SHOULD BE LIGHT
ENOUGH TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON VSBY. STRATUS AT SBY SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH 13-14Z...AND IFR AT ORF SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED.
ELSEWHERE...STRATUS IS DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN.
THIS COULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT RIC/PHF...SO TEMPO IFR HAS BEEN
INCLUDED AT BOTH TERMINALS BEGINNING 08-09Z AND ENDING 12Z. THE
LOW SHOULD QUICKLY PULLS OFF TO THE NE LATER THIS MORNING...WITH
THE WIND SHIFTING FROM NE TO NW ALONG WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM
THE NW. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER TODAY AND
CROSSES THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO SW LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
ALONG AND NW OF A LINE FROM RIC TO SBY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS N OF
THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS IN VICINITY OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING NNE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS LOW WILL ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY AS IT
TRACKS WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A NNE WIND IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS MORNING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE BAY SOUTHWARD AS THE LOW
MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH. A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED 20-25KT WIND IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS. A COLD FRONT THEN
APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CROSSES THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT. THE WIND SHOULD DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN SHIFT TO SW LATE AND INCREASE TO 10-15KT OVER
THE BAY/SOUND RIVERS AND 15-20KT OVER THE OCEAN THIS EVENING. SEAS
SHOULD AVERAGE 5-7FT THROUGH THE DAY...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 4-5FT
TONIGHT. SCAS FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND SOUND WILL RUN THROUGH
17Z...AND THE SCA FOR THE OCEAN WILL RUN THROUGH 08Z TONIGHT AS SEAS
SHOULD BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE...ESPECIALLY OUT NEAR 20NM. THE WIND
SHIFTS TO NW LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE INITIAL CAA SURGE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA. A STRONGER NORTHERLY
SURGE IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...AND THIS COULD
BRING A PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS TO THE LOWER BAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE FLOW...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
ELEVATED SEAS/WAVES AND LIKELY SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ~1.0FT ABOVE NORMAL TODAY FOR ALL
AREAS...AND INTO TONIGHT FOR THE MIDDLE BAY. PREDICTED HIGH TIDE
TONIGHT IS HIGHER THAN AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE TIDAL ANOMALY COULD NUDGE WATER LEVELS AT CAMBRIDGE/BISHOPS
HEAD SLIGHTLY ABOVE 3.0FT MLLW AND NEAR 3.0FT MLLW AT LEWISETTA.
THESE VALUES WOULD FALL JUST SHORT OF MINOR THRESHOLDS. TIDAL
DEPARTURES WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER PERIOD OF
PROLONGED NE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098.
     MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ099-100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 211058
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
658 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING.
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS IN PLACE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS 1006 MB SFC LOW LIFTING NORTHWARD OFF
THE NC COAST. MEANWHILE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST INTO THE PIEDMONT OF VA/NC. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COASTAL LOW CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS EASTERN NC AND FAR SERN VA
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL COVERAGE/INTENSITY HAS BEGUN
TO WANE IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
QUICKLY NE OFF THE NC OBX THRU THE MORNING. AS IT DOES
SO...EXPECTING PCPN TO CONTINUE ACROSS OUR FAR SE ZONES BUT IN AN
OVERALL DIMINISHING TREND. BY 18Z...HIGH RES MODELS HAVE THE SFC
LOW OFFSHORE OF THE DELMARVA...WITH ANY LEFTOVER LIGHT RAIN
LIMITED TO IMMEDIATE COASTAL LOCATIONS AND OFFSHORE. WILL SLOWLY
LOWER POPS THROUGH MIDDAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT THAT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TODAY...BEFORE
CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS AND MOVING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA
OVERNIGHT. MODELS INDICATE LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE
ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT...SO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED. WILL MAINTAIN 20-30% POPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/I-95
CORRIDOR THIS EVENING...PROBABLY DRY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. HAVE
ALSO INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS THIS EVENING...WITH SOME
MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS TUNING TO
THE W-SW THIS AFTERNOON COUPLED WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AND H85
TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND +17C WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MID/UPR 80S MOST PLACES. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPR 50S NW TO NEAR 70
ALONG THE SE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE FA BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE REGION WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR...AND COMFORTABLE MAX TEMPS 75-80 DEGREES. DID MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) ACROSS THE FAR SE IN THE MORNING AS THE
FRONT CLEARS.

THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50 (MID
50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST). A SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
(PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE OH VALLEY/NE
STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE
OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO
PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL STICK TO 20% POPS FOR
NOW. IN GENERAL 12Z GFS KEEPS ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE ECMWF
BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED. HI TEMPS WILL AVG IN THE
MID TO UPR 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 50S TO LWR 60S OVR
MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS PRESENTLY (AS OF 06Z) TRACKING NNE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING BACK THROUGH
THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. RA OVER ERN NC IS STRUGGLING TO MOVE N OF THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THE HIGH TO THE N. ECG
COULD EXPERIENCE OCCASIONAL -RA THROUGH 12Z...BUT SHOULD BE LIGHT
ENOUGH TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON VSBY. STRATUS AT SBY SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH 13-14Z...AND IFR AT ORF SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED.
ELSEWHERE...STRATUS IS DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN.
THIS COULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT RIC/PHF...SO TEMPO IFR HAS BEEN
INCLUDED AT BOTH TERMINALS BEGINNING 08-09Z AND ENDING 12Z. THE
LOW SHOULD QUICKLY PULLS OFF TO THE NE LATER THIS MORNING...WITH
THE WIND SHIFTING FROM NE TO NW ALONG WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM
THE NW. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER TODAY AND
CROSSES THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO SW LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
ALONG AND NW OF A LINE FROM RIC TO SBY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS N OF
THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS IN VICINITY OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING NNE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS LOW WILL ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY AS IT
TRACKS WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A NNE WIND IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS MORNING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE BAY SOUTHWARD AS THE LOW
MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH. A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED 20-25KT WIND IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS. A COLD FRONT THEN
APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CROSSES THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT. THE WIND SHOULD DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN SHIFT TO SW LATE AND INCREASE TO 10-15KT OVER
THE BAY/SOUND RIVERS AND 15-20KT OVER THE OCEAN THIS EVENING. SEAS
SHOULD AVERAGE 5-7FT THROUGH THE DAY...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 4-5FT
TONIGHT. SCAS FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND SOUND WILL RUN THROUGH
17Z...AND THE SCA FOR THE OCEAN WILL RUN THROUGH 08Z TONIGHT AS SEAS
SHOULD BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE...ESPECIALLY OUT NEAR 20NM. THE WIND
SHIFTS TO NW LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE INITIAL CAA SURGE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA. A STRONGER NORTHERLY
SURGE IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...AND THIS COULD
BRING A PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS TO THE LOWER BAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE FLOW...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
ELEVATED SEAS/WAVES AND LIKELY SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ~1.0FT ABOVE NORMAL TODAY FOR ALL
AREAS...AND INTO TONIGHT FOR THE MIDDLE BAY. PREDICTED HIGH TIDE
TONIGHT IS HIGHER THAN AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE TIDAL ANOMALY COULD NUDGE WATER LEVELS AT CAMBRIDGE/BISHOPS
HEAD SLIGHTLY ABOVE 3.0FT MLLW AND NEAR 3.0FT MLLW AT LEWISETTA.
THESE VALUES WOULD FALL JUST SHORT OF MINOR THRESHOLDS. TIDAL
DEPARTURES WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER PERIOD OF
PROLONGED NE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098.
     MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ099-100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210913
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
513 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING.
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS IN PLACE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS 1006 MB LOW LIFTING NORTHWARD OFF THE
NC COAST. MEANWHILE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST INTO THE PIEDMONT OF VA/NC. RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NC EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THE HEAVIEST
PCPN FROM KPGV-KEWN ON EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL OBX. HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGED IN PLACE ACROSS VA IS KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW EITHER SOUTH OF OUR FA OR
OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...RAIN HAS INCREASED IN COVERAGE ALONG THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND OVER TO THE NORTHERN OBX IN THE PAST FEW
HOURS...AND APPEARS FROM LATEST RADAR IMAGES THAT SOME RAIN WILL
MOVE INTO VA BEACH IN THE NEXT LITTLE WHILE. THE SFC LOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NE TO JUST SE OF HATTERAS BY 12Z. AS IT
DOES SO...EXPECTING RAIN TO CONTINUE ACROSS OUR FAR SE AREAS AND
THAT IS WHERE WILL MAINTAIN HIGHEST POPS (HIGH LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL). SHOWERS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO PUSH WESTWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 12Z AS WELL...SO WILL CARRY SOME
POPS NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST TO THE DE BORDER.

BY 18Z...HIGH RES MODELS HAVE THE SFC LOW OFFSHORE OF THE
DELMARVA...WITH ANY LEFTOVER LIGHT RAIN LIMITED TO IMMEDIATE
COASTAL LOCATIONS AND OFFSHORE. WILL SLOWLY LOWER POPS THROUGH
MIDDAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT
MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TODAY...BEFORE CROSSING THE
MOUNTAINS AND MOVING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT. MODELS
INDICATE LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT...SO
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. WILL MAINTAIN 20-30% POPS
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/I-95 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING...PROBABLY DRY
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS
THIS EVENING...WITH SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. WINDS TUNING TO THE W-SW THIS AFTERNOON COUPLED WITH
INCREASING SUNSHINE AND H85 TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND +17C WILL
RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPR 80S MOST PLACES. LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE UPR 50S NW TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE SE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE FA BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE REGION WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR...AND COMFORTABLE MAX TEMPS 75-80 DEGREES. DID MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) ACROSS THE FAR SE IN THE MORNING AS THE
FRONT CLEARS.

THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50 (MID
50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST). A SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
(PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE OH VALLEY/NE
STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE
OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO
PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL STICK TO 20% POPS FOR
NOW. IN GENERAL 12Z GFS KEEPS ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE ECMWF
BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED. HI TEMPS WILL AVG IN THE
MID TO UPR 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 50S TO LWR 60S OVR
MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS PRESENTLY (AS OF 06Z) TRACKING NNE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING BACK THROUGH
THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. RA OVER ERN NC IS STRUGGLING TO MOVE N OF THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THE HIGH TO THE N. ECG
COULD EXPERIENCE OCCASIONAL -RA THROUGH 12Z...BUT SHOULD BE LIGHT
ENOUGH TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON VSBY. STRATUS AT SBY SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH 13-14Z...AND IFR AT ORF SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED.
ELSEWHERE...STRATUS IS DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN.
THIS COULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT RIC/PHF...SO TEMPO IFR HAS BEEN
INCLUDED AT BOTH TERMINALS BEGINNING 08-09Z AND ENDING 12Z. THE
LOW SHOULD QUICKLY PULLS OFF TO THE NE LATER THIS MORNING...WITH
THE WIND SHIFTING FROM NE TO NW ALONG WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM
THE NW. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER TODAY AND
CROSSES THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO SW LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
ALONG AND NW OF A LINE FROM RIC TO SBY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS N OF
THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS IN VICINITY OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING NNE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS LOW WILL ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY AS IT
TRACKS WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A NNE WIND IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS MORNING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE BAY SOUTHWARD AS THE LOW
MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH. A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED 20-25KT WIND IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS. A COLD FRONT THEN
APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CROSSES THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT. THE WIND SHOULD DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN SHIFT TO SW LATE AND INCREASE TO 10-15KT OVER
THE BAY/SOUND RIVERS AND 15-20KT OVER THE OCEAN THIS EVENING. SEAS
SHOULD AVERAGE 5-7FT THROUGH THE DAY...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 4-5FT
TONIGHT. SCAS FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND SOUND WILL RUN THROUGH
17Z...AND THE SCA FOR THE OCEAN WILL RUN THROUGH 08Z TONIGHT AS SEAS
SHOULD BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE...ESPECIALLY OUT NEAR 20NM. THE WIND
SHIFTS TO NW LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE INITIAL CAA SURGE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA. A STRONGER NORTHERLY
SURGE IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...AND THIS COULD
BRING A PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS TO THE LOWER BAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE FLOW...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
ELEVATED SEAS/WAVES AND LIKELY SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ~1.0FT ABOVE NORMAL TODAY FOR ALL
AREAS...AND INTO TONIGHT FOR THE MIDDLE BAY. PREDICTED HIGH TIDE
TONIGHT IS HIGHER THAN AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE TIDAL ANOMALY COULD NUDGE WATER LEVELS AT CAMBRIDGE/BISHOPS
HEAD SLIGHTLY ABOVE 3.0FT MLLW AND NEAR 3.0FT MLLW AT LEWISETTA.
THESE VALUES WOULD FALL JUST SHORT OF MINOR THRESHOLDS. TIDAL
DEPARTURES WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER PERIOD OF
PROLONGED NE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098.
     MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR VAZ099-100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AJZ





000
FXUS61 KRNK 210824
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
424 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER MICHIGAN WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND WILL REACH THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL COVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM SUNDAY...

SATELLITE PICTURES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED THAT FOG HAD
DEVELOPED IN THE NEW AND GREENBRIER RIVER VALLEYS THIS MORNING.
THE FOG WILL LIFT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

TIMING OF THE FRONT REMAINS SIMILAR IN THE GUIDANCE AS PAST FEW
RUNS. BULK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 2PM/18Z AND 8PM/00Z. AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
THIS AFTERNOON WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH HEATING THERE IS...HOW FAST
THE CLOUDS ARRIVE FROM THE WEST. MODELS HAVE ENOUGH CAPE AND
SURFACE HEATING TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ALSO CONFINE A
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION TO ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH THE LOW LEVEL WINDS STARTING FROM THE
NORTH THIS MORNING AND BACKING TO THE WEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WEAKENS.

THE FRONT COMES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 00Z/8PM AND
06Z/2AM. DECENT PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND +6 IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA BY
MONDAY MORNING.

EXPECTING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE WESTERN UPSLOPE AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE MOISTURE
WILL BE SHALLOW. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL CLEAR OUT LATE
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE KEEPING CLOUDS BANKED UP AGAINST WESTERN
SLOPES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ONCE THIS TROUGH AXIS TRACKS TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...DRY AIR WILL ERODE
MOUNTAIN CLOUDS WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. DOWNSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO
KEEP CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

FOLLOWING THE PASSING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...A SURGE OF COOLER
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA. DEW POINTS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO LOWER INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN 5F-10F COOLER THAN NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
ALSO MONDAY...PRESSURE RISES WILL BRING BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS
TO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. GUSTS ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE COULD TOP OUT AT 30 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A 1032MB SURFACE HIGH THAT
STARTS IN SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH
OVER THE NE STATES BY SATURDAY. THE RESULT OF THIS WILL BE AN
EASTERLY WEDGE FLOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT OF A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW BY THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF TO OUR WEST...WHICH WILL IMPACT HOW MUCH MOISTURE CAN GET
PULLED INTO THE REGION. AT THIS POINT TRENDED TOWARD HPC AND THE
DRIER GFS SOLUTIONS AND KEPT JUST LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ANY
PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL LIKELY BE JUST PATCHY DRIZZLE WITH LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATION.

WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS AS THE MODELS ARE TYPICALLY TOO
WARM WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW. EXPECT SURFACE HIGHS OF MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO LOW 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM EDT SUNDAY...

HIGH CLOUDS AROUND A LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL REDUCE FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN THE PIEDMONT OF VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA EARLY
THIS MORNING. DID NOT INCLUDE FOG AT KDAN AND KLYH FOR THIS
MORNING. SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED A CLEAR SKY WEST OF THIS
CIRRUS. FOG WAS ALREADY FORMING AT KLWB IN THE GREENBRIER RIVER
VALLEY. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR HOW MUCH FOG WILL REDUCE THE VISIBILITY
AT KBCB THIS MORNING.

FOG WILL DISSIPATE AFTER DAYBREAK....BUT MOISTURE ADVANCING AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH
LOW END VFR CIGS BY LATE MORNING TO THE MOUNTAINS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT...AND GUSTS
20-25KTS ARE POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WINDS BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. MODELS
WERE SUGGESTING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BANK UP AGAINST THE
WESTERN SLOPS OF THE APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE AT KBLF AND KLWB AFTER MIDNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR IN THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL STILL
BE POSSIBLE AT NIGHT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...AMS/PH




000
FXUS61 KRNK 210824
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
424 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER MICHIGAN WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND WILL REACH THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL COVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM SUNDAY...

SATELLITE PICTURES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED THAT FOG HAD
DEVELOPED IN THE NEW AND GREENBRIER RIVER VALLEYS THIS MORNING.
THE FOG WILL LIFT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

TIMING OF THE FRONT REMAINS SIMILAR IN THE GUIDANCE AS PAST FEW
RUNS. BULK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 2PM/18Z AND 8PM/00Z. AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
THIS AFTERNOON WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH HEATING THERE IS...HOW FAST
THE CLOUDS ARRIVE FROM THE WEST. MODELS HAVE ENOUGH CAPE AND
SURFACE HEATING TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ALSO CONFINE A
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION TO ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH THE LOW LEVEL WINDS STARTING FROM THE
NORTH THIS MORNING AND BACKING TO THE WEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WEAKENS.

THE FRONT COMES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 00Z/8PM AND
06Z/2AM. DECENT PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND +6 IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA BY
MONDAY MORNING.

EXPECTING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE WESTERN UPSLOPE AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE MOISTURE
WILL BE SHALLOW. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL CLEAR OUT LATE
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE KEEPING CLOUDS BANKED UP AGAINST WESTERN
SLOPES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ONCE THIS TROUGH AXIS TRACKS TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...DRY AIR WILL ERODE
MOUNTAIN CLOUDS WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. DOWNSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO
KEEP CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

FOLLOWING THE PASSING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...A SURGE OF COOLER
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA. DEW POINTS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO LOWER INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN 5F-10F COOLER THAN NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
ALSO MONDAY...PRESSURE RISES WILL BRING BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS
TO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. GUSTS ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE COULD TOP OUT AT 30 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A 1032MB SURFACE HIGH THAT
STARTS IN SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH
OVER THE NE STATES BY SATURDAY. THE RESULT OF THIS WILL BE AN
EASTERLY WEDGE FLOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT OF A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW BY THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF TO OUR WEST...WHICH WILL IMPACT HOW MUCH MOISTURE CAN GET
PULLED INTO THE REGION. AT THIS POINT TRENDED TOWARD HPC AND THE
DRIER GFS SOLUTIONS AND KEPT JUST LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ANY
PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL LIKELY BE JUST PATCHY DRIZZLE WITH LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATION.

WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS AS THE MODELS ARE TYPICALLY TOO
WARM WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW. EXPECT SURFACE HIGHS OF MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO LOW 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM EDT SUNDAY...

HIGH CLOUDS AROUND A LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL REDUCE FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN THE PIEDMONT OF VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA EARLY
THIS MORNING. DID NOT INCLUDE FOG AT KDAN AND KLYH FOR THIS
MORNING. SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED A CLEAR SKY WEST OF THIS
CIRRUS. FOG WAS ALREADY FORMING AT KLWB IN THE GREENBRIER RIVER
VALLEY. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR HOW MUCH FOG WILL REDUCE THE VISIBILITY
AT KBCB THIS MORNING.

FOG WILL DISSIPATE AFTER DAYBREAK....BUT MOISTURE ADVANCING AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH
LOW END VFR CIGS BY LATE MORNING TO THE MOUNTAINS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT...AND GUSTS
20-25KTS ARE POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WINDS BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. MODELS
WERE SUGGESTING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BANK UP AGAINST THE
WESTERN SLOPS OF THE APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE AT KBLF AND KLWB AFTER MIDNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR IN THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL STILL
BE POSSIBLE AT NIGHT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...AMS/PH



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210757
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
357 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING.
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS IN PLACE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS 1006 MB LOW LIFTING NORTHWARD OFF THE
NC COAST. MEANWHILE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST INTO THE PIEDMONT OF VA/NC. RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NC EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THE HEAVIEST
PCPN FROM KPGV-KEWN ON EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL OBX. HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGED IN PLACE ACROSS VA IS KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW EITHER SOUTH OF OUR FA OR
OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...RAIN HAS INCREASED IN COVERAGE ALONG THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND OVER TO THE NORTHERN OBX IN THE PAST FEW
HOURS...AND APPEARS FROM LATEST RADAR IMAGES THAT SOME RAIN WILL
MOVE INTO VA BEACH IN THE NEXT LITTLE WHILE. THE SFC LOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NE TO JUST SE OF HATTERAS BY 12Z. AS IT
DOES SO...EXPECTING RAIN TO CONTINUE ACROSS OUR FAR SE AREAS AND
THAT IS WHERE WILL MAINTAIN HIGHEST POPS (HIGH LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL). SHOWERS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO PUSH WESTWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 12Z AS WELL...SO WILL CARRY SOME
POPS NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST TO THE DE BORDER.

BY 18Z...HIGH RES MODELS HAVE THE SFC LOW OFFSHORE OF THE
DELMARVA...WITH ANY LEFTOVER LIGHT RAIN LIMITED TO IMMEDIATE
COASTAL LOCATIONS AND OFFSHORE. WILL SLOWLY LOWER POPS THROUGH
MIDDAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT
MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TODAY...BEFORE CROSSING THE
MOUNTAINS AND MOVING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT. MODELS
INDICATE LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT...SO
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. WILL MAINTAIN 20-30% POPS
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/I-95 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING...PROBABLY DRY
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS
THIS EVENING...WITH SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. WINDS TUNING TO THE W-SW THIS AFTERNOON COUPLED WITH
INCREASING SUNSHINE AND H85 TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND +17C WILL
RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPR 80S MOST PLACES. LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE UPR 50S NW TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE SE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE FA BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE REGION WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR...AND COMFORTABLE MAX TEMPS 75-80 DEGREES. DID MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) ACROSS THE FAR SE IN THE MORNING AS THE
FRONT CLEARS.

THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50 (MID
50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST). A SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
(PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE OH VALLEY/NE
STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE
OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO
PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL STICK TO 20% POPS FOR
NOW. IN GENERAL 12Z GFS KEEPS ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE ECMWF
BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED. HI TEMPS WILL AVG IN THE
MID TO UPR 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 50S TO LWR 60S OVR
MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS PRESENTLY (AS OF 06Z) TRACKING NNE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING BACK THROUGH
THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. RA OVER ERN NC IS STRUGGLING TO MOVE N OF THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THE HIGH TO THE N. ECG
COULD EXPERIENCE OCCASIONAL -RA THROUGH 12Z...BUT SHOULD BE LIGHT
ENOUGH TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON VSBY. STRATUS AT SBY SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH 13-14Z...AND IFR AT ORF SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED.
ELSEWHERE...STRATUS IS DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN.
THIS COULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT RIC/PHF...SO TEMPO IFR HAS BEEN
INCLUDED AT BOTH TERMINALS BEGINNING 08-09Z AND ENDING 12Z. THE
LOW SHOULD QUICKLY PULLS OFF TO THE NE LATER THIS MORNING...WITH
THE WIND SHIFTING FROM NE TO NW ALONG WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM
THE NW. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER TODAY AND
CROSSES THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO SW LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
ALONG AND NW OF A LINE FROM RIC TO SBY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS N OF
THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS IN VICINITY OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING NNE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS LOW WILL ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY AS IT
TRACKS WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A NNE WIND IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS MORNING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE BAY SOUTHWARD AS THE LOW
MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH. A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED 20-25KT WIND IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS. A COLD FRONT THEN
APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CROSSES THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT. THE WIND SHOULD DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN SHIFT TO SW LATE AND INCREASE TO 10-15KT OVER
THE BAY/SOUND RIVERS AND 15-20KT OVER THE OCEAN THIS EVENING. SEAS
SHOULD AVERAGE 5-7FT THROUGH THE DAY...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 4-5FT
TONIGHT. SCAS FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND SOUND WILL RUN THROUGH
17Z...AND THE SCA FOR THE OCEAN WILL RUN THROUGH 08Z TONIGHT AS SEAS
SHOULD BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE...ESPECIALLY OUT NEAR 20NM. THE WIND
SHIFTS TO NW LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE INITIAL CAA SURGE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA. A STRONGER NORTHERLY
SURGE IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...AND THIS COULD
BRING A PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS TO THE LOWER BAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE FLOW...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
ELEVATED SEAS/WAVES AND LIKELY SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
MONITORING TIDES INVOF MIDDLE BAY (SPECIFICALLY LEWISETTA
VA...CAMBRIDGE AND BISHOPS HEAD MD)...WHERE FCST LEVELS FOR TIDES
OVNNGT TO FALL JUST SHORT OF MINOR THRESHOLDS. TIDAL DEPARTURES
ARE RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ATTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098.
     MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR VAZ099-100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210757
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
357 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING.
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS IN PLACE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS 1006 MB LOW LIFTING NORTHWARD OFF THE
NC COAST. MEANWHILE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST INTO THE PIEDMONT OF VA/NC. RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NC EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THE HEAVIEST
PCPN FROM KPGV-KEWN ON EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL OBX. HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGED IN PLACE ACROSS VA IS KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW EITHER SOUTH OF OUR FA OR
OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...RAIN HAS INCREASED IN COVERAGE ALONG THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND OVER TO THE NORTHERN OBX IN THE PAST FEW
HOURS...AND APPEARS FROM LATEST RADAR IMAGES THAT SOME RAIN WILL
MOVE INTO VA BEACH IN THE NEXT LITTLE WHILE. THE SFC LOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NE TO JUST SE OF HATTERAS BY 12Z. AS IT
DOES SO...EXPECTING RAIN TO CONTINUE ACROSS OUR FAR SE AREAS AND
THAT IS WHERE WILL MAINTAIN HIGHEST POPS (HIGH LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL). SHOWERS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO PUSH WESTWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 12Z AS WELL...SO WILL CARRY SOME
POPS NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST TO THE DE BORDER.

BY 18Z...HIGH RES MODELS HAVE THE SFC LOW OFFSHORE OF THE
DELMARVA...WITH ANY LEFTOVER LIGHT RAIN LIMITED TO IMMEDIATE
COASTAL LOCATIONS AND OFFSHORE. WILL SLOWLY LOWER POPS THROUGH
MIDDAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT
MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TODAY...BEFORE CROSSING THE
MOUNTAINS AND MOVING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT. MODELS
INDICATE LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT...SO
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. WILL MAINTAIN 20-30% POPS
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/I-95 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING...PROBABLY DRY
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS
THIS EVENING...WITH SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. WINDS TUNING TO THE W-SW THIS AFTERNOON COUPLED WITH
INCREASING SUNSHINE AND H85 TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND +17C WILL
RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPR 80S MOST PLACES. LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE UPR 50S NW TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE SE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE FA BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE REGION WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR...AND COMFORTABLE MAX TEMPS 75-80 DEGREES. DID MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) ACROSS THE FAR SE IN THE MORNING AS THE
FRONT CLEARS.

THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50 (MID
50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST). A SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
(PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE OH VALLEY/NE
STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE
OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO
PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL STICK TO 20% POPS FOR
NOW. IN GENERAL 12Z GFS KEEPS ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE ECMWF
BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED. HI TEMPS WILL AVG IN THE
MID TO UPR 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 50S TO LWR 60S OVR
MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS PRESENTLY (AS OF 06Z) TRACKING NNE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING BACK THROUGH
THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. RA OVER ERN NC IS STRUGGLING TO MOVE N OF THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THE HIGH TO THE N. ECG
COULD EXPERIENCE OCCASIONAL -RA THROUGH 12Z...BUT SHOULD BE LIGHT
ENOUGH TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON VSBY. STRATUS AT SBY SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH 13-14Z...AND IFR AT ORF SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED.
ELSEWHERE...STRATUS IS DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN.
THIS COULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT RIC/PHF...SO TEMPO IFR HAS BEEN
INCLUDED AT BOTH TERMINALS BEGINNING 08-09Z AND ENDING 12Z. THE
LOW SHOULD QUICKLY PULLS OFF TO THE NE LATER THIS MORNING...WITH
THE WIND SHIFTING FROM NE TO NW ALONG WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM
THE NW. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER TODAY AND
CROSSES THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO SW LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
ALONG AND NW OF A LINE FROM RIC TO SBY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS N OF
THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS IN VICINITY OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING NNE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS LOW WILL ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY AS IT
TRACKS WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A NNE WIND IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS MORNING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE BAY SOUTHWARD AS THE LOW
MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH. A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED 20-25KT WIND IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS. A COLD FRONT THEN
APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CROSSES THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT. THE WIND SHOULD DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN SHIFT TO SW LATE AND INCREASE TO 10-15KT OVER
THE BAY/SOUND RIVERS AND 15-20KT OVER THE OCEAN THIS EVENING. SEAS
SHOULD AVERAGE 5-7FT THROUGH THE DAY...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 4-5FT
TONIGHT. SCAS FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND SOUND WILL RUN THROUGH
17Z...AND THE SCA FOR THE OCEAN WILL RUN THROUGH 08Z TONIGHT AS SEAS
SHOULD BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE...ESPECIALLY OUT NEAR 20NM. THE WIND
SHIFTS TO NW LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE INITIAL CAA SURGE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA. A STRONGER NORTHERLY
SURGE IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...AND THIS COULD
BRING A PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS TO THE LOWER BAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE FLOW...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
ELEVATED SEAS/WAVES AND LIKELY SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
MONITORING TIDES INVOF MIDDLE BAY (SPECIFICALLY LEWISETTA
VA...CAMBRIDGE AND BISHOPS HEAD MD)...WHERE FCST LEVELS FOR TIDES
OVNNGT TO FALL JUST SHORT OF MINOR THRESHOLDS. TIDAL DEPARTURES
ARE RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ATTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098.
     MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR VAZ099-100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210757
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
357 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING.
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS IN PLACE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS 1006 MB LOW LIFTING NORTHWARD OFF THE
NC COAST. MEANWHILE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST INTO THE PIEDMONT OF VA/NC. RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NC EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THE HEAVIEST
PCPN FROM KPGV-KEWN ON EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL OBX. HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGED IN PLACE ACROSS VA IS KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW EITHER SOUTH OF OUR FA OR
OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...RAIN HAS INCREASED IN COVERAGE ALONG THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND OVER TO THE NORTHERN OBX IN THE PAST FEW
HOURS...AND APPEARS FROM LATEST RADAR IMAGES THAT SOME RAIN WILL
MOVE INTO VA BEACH IN THE NEXT LITTLE WHILE. THE SFC LOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NE TO JUST SE OF HATTERAS BY 12Z. AS IT
DOES SO...EXPECTING RAIN TO CONTINUE ACROSS OUR FAR SE AREAS AND
THAT IS WHERE WILL MAINTAIN HIGHEST POPS (HIGH LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL). SHOWERS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO PUSH WESTWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 12Z AS WELL...SO WILL CARRY SOME
POPS NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST TO THE DE BORDER.

BY 18Z...HIGH RES MODELS HAVE THE SFC LOW OFFSHORE OF THE
DELMARVA...WITH ANY LEFTOVER LIGHT RAIN LIMITED TO IMMEDIATE
COASTAL LOCATIONS AND OFFSHORE. WILL SLOWLY LOWER POPS THROUGH
MIDDAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT
MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TODAY...BEFORE CROSSING THE
MOUNTAINS AND MOVING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT. MODELS
INDICATE LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT...SO
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. WILL MAINTAIN 20-30% POPS
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/I-95 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING...PROBABLY DRY
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS
THIS EVENING...WITH SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. WINDS TUNING TO THE W-SW THIS AFTERNOON COUPLED WITH
INCREASING SUNSHINE AND H85 TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND +17C WILL
RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPR 80S MOST PLACES. LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE UPR 50S NW TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE SE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE FA BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE REGION WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR...AND COMFORTABLE MAX TEMPS 75-80 DEGREES. DID MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) ACROSS THE FAR SE IN THE MORNING AS THE
FRONT CLEARS.

THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50 (MID
50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST). A SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
(PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE OH VALLEY/NE
STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE
OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO
PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL STICK TO 20% POPS FOR
NOW. IN GENERAL 12Z GFS KEEPS ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE ECMWF
BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED. HI TEMPS WILL AVG IN THE
MID TO UPR 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 50S TO LWR 60S OVR
MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS PRESENTLY (AS OF 06Z) TRACKING NNE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING BACK THROUGH
THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. RA OVER ERN NC IS STRUGGLING TO MOVE N OF THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THE HIGH TO THE N. ECG
COULD EXPERIENCE OCCASIONAL -RA THROUGH 12Z...BUT SHOULD BE LIGHT
ENOUGH TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON VSBY. STRATUS AT SBY SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH 13-14Z...AND IFR AT ORF SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED.
ELSEWHERE...STRATUS IS DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN.
THIS COULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT RIC/PHF...SO TEMPO IFR HAS BEEN
INCLUDED AT BOTH TERMINALS BEGINNING 08-09Z AND ENDING 12Z. THE
LOW SHOULD QUICKLY PULLS OFF TO THE NE LATER THIS MORNING...WITH
THE WIND SHIFTING FROM NE TO NW ALONG WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM
THE NW. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER TODAY AND
CROSSES THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO SW LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
ALONG AND NW OF A LINE FROM RIC TO SBY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS N OF
THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS IN VICINITY OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING NNE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS LOW WILL ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY AS IT
TRACKS WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A NNE WIND IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS MORNING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE BAY SOUTHWARD AS THE LOW
MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH. A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED 20-25KT WIND IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS. A COLD FRONT THEN
APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CROSSES THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT. THE WIND SHOULD DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN SHIFT TO SW LATE AND INCREASE TO 10-15KT OVER
THE BAY/SOUND RIVERS AND 15-20KT OVER THE OCEAN THIS EVENING. SEAS
SHOULD AVERAGE 5-7FT THROUGH THE DAY...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 4-5FT
TONIGHT. SCAS FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND SOUND WILL RUN THROUGH
17Z...AND THE SCA FOR THE OCEAN WILL RUN THROUGH 08Z TONIGHT AS SEAS
SHOULD BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE...ESPECIALLY OUT NEAR 20NM. THE WIND
SHIFTS TO NW LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE INITIAL CAA SURGE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA. A STRONGER NORTHERLY
SURGE IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...AND THIS COULD
BRING A PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS TO THE LOWER BAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE FLOW...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
ELEVATED SEAS/WAVES AND LIKELY SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
MONITORING TIDES INVOF MIDDLE BAY (SPECIFICALLY LEWISETTA
VA...CAMBRIDGE AND BISHOPS HEAD MD)...WHERE FCST LEVELS FOR TIDES
OVNNGT TO FALL JUST SHORT OF MINOR THRESHOLDS. TIDAL DEPARTURES
ARE RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ATTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098.
     MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR VAZ099-100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210757
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
357 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING.
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS IN PLACE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS 1006 MB LOW LIFTING NORTHWARD OFF THE
NC COAST. MEANWHILE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST INTO THE PIEDMONT OF VA/NC. RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NC EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THE HEAVIEST
PCPN FROM KPGV-KEWN ON EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL OBX. HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGED IN PLACE ACROSS VA IS KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW EITHER SOUTH OF OUR FA OR
OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...RAIN HAS INCREASED IN COVERAGE ALONG THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND OVER TO THE NORTHERN OBX IN THE PAST FEW
HOURS...AND APPEARS FROM LATEST RADAR IMAGES THAT SOME RAIN WILL
MOVE INTO VA BEACH IN THE NEXT LITTLE WHILE. THE SFC LOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NE TO JUST SE OF HATTERAS BY 12Z. AS IT
DOES SO...EXPECTING RAIN TO CONTINUE ACROSS OUR FAR SE AREAS AND
THAT IS WHERE WILL MAINTAIN HIGHEST POPS (HIGH LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL). SHOWERS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO PUSH WESTWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 12Z AS WELL...SO WILL CARRY SOME
POPS NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST TO THE DE BORDER.

BY 18Z...HIGH RES MODELS HAVE THE SFC LOW OFFSHORE OF THE
DELMARVA...WITH ANY LEFTOVER LIGHT RAIN LIMITED TO IMMEDIATE
COASTAL LOCATIONS AND OFFSHORE. WILL SLOWLY LOWER POPS THROUGH
MIDDAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT
MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TODAY...BEFORE CROSSING THE
MOUNTAINS AND MOVING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT. MODELS
INDICATE LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT...SO
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. WILL MAINTAIN 20-30% POPS
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/I-95 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING...PROBABLY DRY
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS
THIS EVENING...WITH SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. WINDS TUNING TO THE W-SW THIS AFTERNOON COUPLED WITH
INCREASING SUNSHINE AND H85 TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND +17C WILL
RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPR 80S MOST PLACES. LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE UPR 50S NW TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE SE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE FA BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE REGION WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR...AND COMFORTABLE MAX TEMPS 75-80 DEGREES. DID MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) ACROSS THE FAR SE IN THE MORNING AS THE
FRONT CLEARS.

THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50 (MID
50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST). A SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
(PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE OH VALLEY/NE
STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE
OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO
PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL STICK TO 20% POPS FOR
NOW. IN GENERAL 12Z GFS KEEPS ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE ECMWF
BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED. HI TEMPS WILL AVG IN THE
MID TO UPR 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 50S TO LWR 60S OVR
MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS PRESENTLY (AS OF 06Z) TRACKING NNE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING BACK THROUGH
THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. RA OVER ERN NC IS STRUGGLING TO MOVE N OF THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THE HIGH TO THE N. ECG
COULD EXPERIENCE OCCASIONAL -RA THROUGH 12Z...BUT SHOULD BE LIGHT
ENOUGH TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON VSBY. STRATUS AT SBY SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH 13-14Z...AND IFR AT ORF SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED.
ELSEWHERE...STRATUS IS DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN.
THIS COULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT RIC/PHF...SO TEMPO IFR HAS BEEN
INCLUDED AT BOTH TERMINALS BEGINNING 08-09Z AND ENDING 12Z. THE
LOW SHOULD QUICKLY PULLS OFF TO THE NE LATER THIS MORNING...WITH
THE WIND SHIFTING FROM NE TO NW ALONG WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM
THE NW. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER TODAY AND
CROSSES THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO SW LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
ALONG AND NW OF A LINE FROM RIC TO SBY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS N OF
THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS IN VICINITY OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING NNE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS LOW WILL ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY AS IT
TRACKS WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A NNE WIND IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS MORNING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE BAY SOUTHWARD AS THE LOW
MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH. A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED 20-25KT WIND IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS. A COLD FRONT THEN
APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CROSSES THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT. THE WIND SHOULD DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN SHIFT TO SW LATE AND INCREASE TO 10-15KT OVER
THE BAY/SOUND RIVERS AND 15-20KT OVER THE OCEAN THIS EVENING. SEAS
SHOULD AVERAGE 5-7FT THROUGH THE DAY...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 4-5FT
TONIGHT. SCAS FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND SOUND WILL RUN THROUGH
17Z...AND THE SCA FOR THE OCEAN WILL RUN THROUGH 08Z TONIGHT AS SEAS
SHOULD BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE...ESPECIALLY OUT NEAR 20NM. THE WIND
SHIFTS TO NW LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE INITIAL CAA SURGE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA. A STRONGER NORTHERLY
SURGE IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...AND THIS COULD
BRING A PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS TO THE LOWER BAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE FLOW...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
ELEVATED SEAS/WAVES AND LIKELY SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
MONITORING TIDES INVOF MIDDLE BAY (SPECIFICALLY LEWISETTA
VA...CAMBRIDGE AND BISHOPS HEAD MD)...WHERE FCST LEVELS FOR TIDES
OVNNGT TO FALL JUST SHORT OF MINOR THRESHOLDS. TIDAL DEPARTURES
ARE RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ATTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098.
     MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR VAZ099-100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ






000
FXUS61 KLWX 210749
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
349 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC
COASTS TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST THIS
MORNING BEFORE HEADING OUT TO SEA THIS AFTERNOON. RAINBANDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME PATCHY FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE EARLY
THIS MORNING BUT WESTERLY WINDS WILL HELP MIX OUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
AFTER SUNRISE WITH REMAINING FOG BURNING OFF. BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW...WESTERLY WINDS WILL AID IN DOWNSLOPE WARMING ACROSS THE
REGION. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 80S IN
MOST LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. DAYTIME HEATING
COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL HELP TOUCH OFF
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FIRST OVER
THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND I-81 CORRIDOR THEN SPREADING EAST ACROSS
THE METRO AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. SOME OF
THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED THREAT.
CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL END BY MID EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY REMAIN
OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO
THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING BACK TO THE 40S TO
50S WEST AND UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S EAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC ON MONDAY BRINGING
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S WEST TO THE MID 40S TO 50S EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HIPRES WL BE ACROSS MOST OF THE ERN CONUS THRU THE END OF THE
WK. H5 RDG WL BE BLDG TOO. AT FIRST GLANCE...THAT WUD SEEM LIKE A
CUT-N-DRY FCST. HWVR...THERE IS A CATCH.

ECMWF GDNC SUGGESTING A CUTOFF LOW IN THE MIDST OF THE H5 RDG...OR
IN OTHER WORDS...A WEAKNESS IN THE HGT PTTN. THERE/S RATHER POOR
AGREEMENT ON A FEATURE SO SUBTLE SVRL DAYS OUT. HWVR...SFC FLOW WL
BE NLY TUE BUT VEER ELY WED-THU...AS THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH WL
BE ATOP NEW ENGLAND/NYS BY THEN. AT THE VERY LEAST...CANNOT RULE OUT
AN INCREASE IN MSTR AND MAYBE A SPRINKLE OR TWO /OR A PATCH OF DZ?/.
SO AT THIS JUNCTURE...WL KEEP TUE SUNNY...BRING CLDS INLAND WED...
AND OFFER UP SOME LOW END POPS /20-30 PCT/ WED NGT-THU. CHOOSING A
STRATIFORM PCP CHARACTER.

AM THINKING AS THE UPR RDG BLDS TO THE W OF THE AREA...THAT MAY BE
ENUF TO ALLOW SFC RDGG TO RETROGRADE. IF THAT DOES HPPN...THEN WE/LL
LOSE THE ONSHORE FLOW...AND THE MARINE AMS WL LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE
RGN. DONT HV THE HIEST OF CONFIDENCE IN THIS OUTLOOK...BUT DONT WANT
TO CARRY A PROLONGED PD OF LOW POPS UNDER HIPRES W/O A CLEARER
SIGNAL.

CAN SAY THIS...HIER HGTS WL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPS. MAXT TUE-THU NOT
FAR OFF FM BAY WATER TEMPS...WHICH IS ABT 5 OR 6 DEGF COOLER THAN
CLIMO. WE/LL BE BACK NEAR NORMAL AGN FRI-SUN.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS BY MID
MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SOME IMPACT TO THE
TERMINALS MAY BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY 18-00Z. PATCHY FOG COULD
REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MON-TUE...VFR UNDER HIPRES.
WED-THU...ONSHORE FLOW MAY BRING A STRATUS DECK INLAND. FLGT
RESTRICTIONS PSBL...BUT CONFIDENCE LOW.
&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS TODAY EXCEPT WHERE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.

NLY FOW TUE WL VEER ELY FOR WED-THU. GDNC SUGGESTING ELY FLOW MAY BE
STIFF...POTENTIALLY SUPPORTING SCA CONDS OVER A PORTION OF THE
WATERS /MID BAY/.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES...WHICH ROSE DRAMATICALLY YDA...HAVE SINCE LESSENED
AS HIGH TIDE ROLLS IN. AS A RESULT...TIDES MAXING OUT RIGHT NEAR
MINOR CRITERIA AT SOLOMONS/PINEY POINT/ANNAPOLIS. THE TIDE IS IN AA
COUNTY RIGHT NOW. THUS WL BE ABLE TO CANX ADVY FOR CALVERT AND SAINT
MARYS. FURTHER...SINCE DEPARTURES LOWER...DO NOT BELIEVE THRESHOLDS
WILL BE MET AT BALTIMORE. WILL CANCEL THAT ONE AS WELL. DO NOT HAVE
A GOOD FEEL FOR THE UPPER POTOMAC RIGHT NOW...SO WILL ALLOW THOSE
ADVYS TO CONTINUE.

THE PM TIDE WILL BE A BIT MORE OF A CHALLENGE TO FORECAST. IT WILL
BE THE LOWER ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. SWLY WINDS WILL BECOME WLY...SO
PERHAPS WE WILL GET A PINCH OF RELIEF FROM THAT. AND...BASELINE
DEPARTURES GOING IN APPEAR TO BE BELOW +1. ALL SAID...WL FOLLOW THE
PREMISE THAT REACHING CAUTION STAGE PROBABLE BUT MINOR THRESHOLD
LESS LIKELY.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR DCZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ014.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ054.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...KRW
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...HTS/KRW
MARINE...HTS/KRW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210741
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
341 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING.
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS IN PLACE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS 1006 MB LOW LIFTING NORTHWARD OFF THE
NC COAST. MEANWHILE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST INTO THE PIEDMONT OF VA/NC. RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NC EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THE HEAVIEST
PCPN FROM KPGV-KEWN ON EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL OBX. HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGED IN PLACE ACROSS VA IS KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW EITHER SOUTH OF OUR FA OR
OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...RAIN HAS INCREASED IN COVERAGE ALONG THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND OVER TO THE NORTHERN OBX IN THE PAST FEW
HOURS...AND APPEARS FROM LATEST RADAR IMAGES THAT SOME RAIN WILL
MOVE INTO VA BEACH IN THE NEXT LITTLE WHILE. THE SFC LOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NE TO JUST SE OF HATTERAS BY 12Z. AS IT
DOES SO...EXPECTING RAIN TO CONTINUE ACROSS OUR FAR SE AREAS AND
THAT IS WHERE WILL MAINTAIN HIGHEST POPS (HIGH LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL). SHOWERS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO PUSH WESTWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 12Z AS WELL...SO WILL CARRY SOME
POPS NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST TO THE DE BORDER.

BY 18Z...HIGH RES MODELS HAVE THE SFC LOW OFFSHORE OF THE
DELMARVA...WITH ANY LEFTOVER LIGHT RAIN LIMITED TO IMMEDIATE
COASTAL LOCATIONS AND OFFSHORE. WILL SLOWLY LOWER POPS THROUGH
MIDDAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT
MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TODAY...BEFORE CROSSING THE
MOUNTAINS AND MOVING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT. MODELS
INDICATE LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT...SO
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. WILL MAINTAIN 20-30% POPS
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/I-95 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING...PROBABLY DRY
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS
THIS EVENING...WITH SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. WINDS TUNING TO THE W-SW THIS AFTERNOON COUPLED WITH
INCREASING SUNSHINE AND H85 TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND +17C WILL
RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPR 80S MOST PLACES. LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE UPR 50S NW TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE SE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE FA BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE REGION WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR...AND COMFORTABLE MAX TEMPS 75-80 DEGREES. DID MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) ACROSS THE FAR SE IN THE MORNING AS THE
FRONT CLEARS.

THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50 (MID
50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST). A SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
(PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE OH VALLEY/NE
STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE
OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO
PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL STICK TO 20% POPS FOR
NOW. IN GENERAL 12Z GFS KEEPS ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE ECMWF
BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED. HI TEMPS WILL AVG IN THE
MID TO UPR 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 50S TO LWR 60S OVR
MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS PRESENTLY (AS OF 06Z) TRACKING NNE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING BACK THROUGH
THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. RA OVER ERN NC IS STRUGGLING TO MOVE N OF THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THE HIGH TO THE N. ECG
COULD EXPERIENCE OCCASIONAL -RA THROUGH 12Z...BUT SHOULD BE LIGHT
ENOUGH TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON VSBY. STRATUS AT SBY SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH 13-14Z...AND IFR AT ORF SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED.
ELSEWHERE...STRATUS IS DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN.
THIS COULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT RIC/PHF...SO TEMPO IFR HAS BEEN
INCLUDED AT BOTH TERMINALS BEGINNING 08-09Z AND ENDING 12Z. THE
LOW SHOULD QUICKLY PULLS OFF TO THE NE LATER THIS MORNING...WITH
THE WIND SHIFTING FROM NE TO NW ALONG WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM
THE NW. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER TODAY AND
CROSSES THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO SW LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
ALONG AND NW OF A LINE FROM RIC TO SBY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS N OF
THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS IN VICINITY OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
8 PM UPDATE...SEAS AND WAVES AT CAPE CHARLES BUOY AND FIRST
LANDING RESPECTIVELY ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH SIGN OF SUBSIDING.
MODELS ARE INSISTENT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS SOON AND THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN WAVES DROPPING BELOW SCA IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. THE
SCA EXPIRATION OF 10 PM SEEMED TOO SOON FOR THAT AND ADJUSTED
THAT TO 1 AM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SFC HI PRES STRETCHES DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC
CST TNGT AS LO PRES PASSES OFFSHORE. AS FAR AS HEADLINES...SCA OVR
THE MOUTH OF THE BAY WILL CONTINUE THRU 10 PM DUE TO 4 FT WAVES.
HIGH SEAS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVR THE CSTL WTRS DUE TO PROLONGED
ERLY/NERLY FETCH. WILL CONTINUE HEADLINES THERE INTO
TOMORO...ENDING THEM FM N TO S THRU THE DAY AS FLOW BCMS NLY. A
COLD FRNT CROSSES THE WTRS LATE SUN/ERLY MON...WITH CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO STAY SUB-SCA POST FRNTAL DUE TO A WEAK GRADIENT AND
CAA. SECONDARY SURGE AND HI PRES BLDG N OF THE AREA MON NGT MAY
BRING WINDS JUST SHY OF 20 KT OVR THE BAY...BUT WILL CAP AT AROUND
15 KT FOR NOW. FOR TUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER
PROLONGED PERIOD OF NE FLOW WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED WAVES AND SEAS
AND SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
MONITORING TIDES INVOF MIDDLE BAY (SPECIFICALLY LEWISETTA
VA...CAMBRIDGE AND BISHOPS HEAD MD)...WHERE FCST LEVELS FOR TIDES
OVNNGT TO FALL JUST SHORT OF MINOR THRESHOLDS. TIDAL DEPARTURES
ARE RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ATTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098.
     MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR VAZ099-100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ634-
     654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ650-
     652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...MAS/LSA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210636
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
236 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE...AND COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS...FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SFC HI PRES EXITING E OF NEW ENG THIS EVE...WHILE SFC LO PRES
SLOLY DEVELOPING SE OF CHS. RA FM ECNTRL NC CONTS TO HAVE
DIFFICULTY MOVING INTO CSTL NE NC SO FAR THIS EVE. 00Z/21 RUC
BRINGS AT LEAST SCT SHRAS NWD ACRS CSTL NE NC...MNLY E OF THE
CHOWAN RIVER...AND INTO EXTREME SE VA AFT 04-06Z/21. HAVE INCRSD
POPS A LITTLE OVR THOSE AREAS FOR THE REST OF THE NGT...WHILE LWRG
POPS TO THE N OVR THE ERN SHORES OF VA/MD. WIDESPREAD CLDNS WILL
COVER MOST OF ERN INTO CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE FA OVRNGT...THOUGH
LOWEST CIGS LIKELY TO BE CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF HAMPTON RDS ON S
OVR (CSTL) NE NC.

ONLY MADE VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS FOR THE OVRNGT HRS BASED
ON TRENDS AND LATEST NEAR TERM GUID. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT CLOSE TO OR
SLIGHT ABOVE THIS MORNINGS TEMPS AWAY FROM THE BAY/OCEAN...WITH
MANY AREAS W OF I95 CORRIDOR AT OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW 60F. CLOSER
TO THE BAY/OCEAN...CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIP SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE
60S. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPED LAST NIGHT...AND EXPECT IT AGAIN TONIGHT
IN AREAS AWAY FROM THE WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST RUC SLOWER W/ EXIT OF CLDS/PCPN INVOF (SE VA/NE NC) CST SUN
MORNING...SO HAVE SLOWED DOWN TAPERING OF POPS W-E. OTRW...THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT SEVERAL WILL BE ON SUNDAY...WITH MANY
AREAS SEEING THE UPPER 80S...AND ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO MAKE INTO
THE LOWER 80S...AS CONDS ARE P/MSNY W...AND CLEARING (MIDDAY/AFTN)
E.

A COLD FRONT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
EVENING. MODELS INDICATE LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD
OF FRONT...SO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED. HAVE
INCREASED POPS SUNDAY EVENING IN THE PIEDMONT AREA TO 30%...MAINLY
IN DEFERENCE TO NAM12 PRECIP DEPICTION. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A
SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS SUNDAY EVENING...WITH SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRONT WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST...BUT ANY PRECIP BEYOND 04Z EXPECTED TO
BE WIDELY SCATTERED. AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE
FA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE
REGION WITH MUCH DRIER AIR...AND MAX TEMPS 75-80 DEGREES.

THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50. A
SUNNY PLEASANT DAY EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE OH VALLEY/NE
STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE
OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO
PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL STICK TO 20% POPS FOR
NOW. IN GENERAL 12Z GFS KEEPS ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE ECMWF
BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED. HI TEMPS WILL AVG IN THE
MID TO UPR 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 50S TO LWR 60S OVR
MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS PRESENTLY (AS OF 06Z) TRACKING NNE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING BACK THROUGH
THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. RA OVER ERN NC IS STRUGGLING TO MOVE N OF THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THE HIGH TO THE N. ECG
COULD EXPERIENCE OCCASIONAL -RA THROUGH 12Z...BUT SHOULD BE LIGHT
ENOUGH TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON VSBY. STRATUS AT SBY SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH 13-14Z...AND IFR AT ORF SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED.
ELSEWHERE...STRATUS IS DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN.
THIS COULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT RIC/PHF...SO TEMPO IFR HAS BEEN
INCLUDED AT BOTH TERMINALS BEGINNING 08-09Z AND ENDING 12Z. THE
LOW SHOULD QUICKLY PULLS OFF TO THE NE LATER THIS MORNING...WITH
THE WIND SHIFTING FROM NE TO NW ALONG WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM
THE NW. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER TODAY AND
CROSSES THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO SW LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
ALONG AND NW OF A LINE FROM RIC TO SBY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS N OF
THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS IN VICINITY OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
8 PM UPDATE...SEAS AND WAVES AT CAPE CHARLES BUOY AND FIRST
LANDING RESPECTIVELY ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH SIGN OF SUBSIDING.
MODELS ARE INSISTENT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS SOON AND THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN WAVES DROPPING BELOW SCA IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. THE
SCA EXPIRATION OF 10 PM SEEMED TOO SOON FOR THAT AND ADJUSTED
THAT TO 1 AM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SFC HI PRES STRETCHES DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC
CST TNGT AS LO PRES PASSES OFFSHORE. AS FAR AS HEADLINES...SCA OVR
THE MOUTH OF THE BAY WILL CONTINUE THRU 10 PM DUE TO 4 FT WAVES.
HIGH SEAS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVR THE CSTL WTRS DUE TO PROLONGED
ERLY/NERLY FETCH. WILL CONTINUE HEADLINES THERE INTO
TOMORO...ENDING THEM FM N TO S THRU THE DAY AS FLOW BCMS NLY. A
COLD FRNT CROSSES THE WTRS LATE SUN/ERLY MON...WITH CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO STAY SUB-SCA POST FRNTAL DUE TO A WEAK GRADIENT AND
CAA. SECONDARY SURGE AND HI PRES BLDG N OF THE AREA MON NGT MAY
BRING WINDS JUST SHY OF 20 KT OVR THE BAY...BUT WILL CAP AT AROUND
15 KT FOR NOW. FOR TUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER
PROLONGED PERIOD OF NE FLOW WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED WAVES AND SEAS
AND SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
MONITORING TIDES INVOF MIDDLE BAY (SPECIFICALLY LEWISETTA
VA...CAMBRIDGE AND BISHOPS HEAD MD)...WHERE FCST LEVELS FOR TIDES
OVNNGT TO FALL JUST SHORT OF MINOR THRESHOLDS. TIDAL DEPARTURES
ARE RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ATTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098.
     MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR VAZ099-100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ634-
     654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ650-
     652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM/WRS
NEAR TERM...ALB/WRS
SHORT TERM...WRS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...MAS/LSA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KRNK 210540
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
140 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LIFTS NORTH TO JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR
REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN. MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL COVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1015 PM EDT SATURDAY...

FORECAST ON TRACK. HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. GSO EVENING SOUNDING
INDICATED THIS CLOUD LAYER WAS BETWEEN 35-40KFT AGL OR 200-260 MB.
MODELS KEEP THIS MOISTURE PINNED MAINLY TO COAST JUST BRUSHING OUR
EASTERN CWA...WITH LYH/MTV/GSO AND POINTS EAST BECOMING OVC AT
TIMES OVERNIGHT FROM THIS HIGHER LAYER OF CLOUD. LOOKING WEST...
CLOUDS WERE ALSO APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...THIS CLOUD
COVER WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

THE UPPER TROUGH OVR THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DEEPEN AND TRAVEL
EAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST
TONIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE OF THE GEORGIA COAST LIFTS NORTHWARD IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
THE SOUTHEAST LOW CENTER TONIGHT. ADDED THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE ADJMAVBC WITH
READINGS FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE COOLER VALLEYS TO NEAR 60 IN
THE PIEDMONT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...TRAVEL ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY EVENING AND EXIT
THE PIEDMONT SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE STRONG MIDLEVEL FLOW AT 700 MB
AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPEN AND SOME INSTABILITY...SPC IN THE DAY
2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS ALLOWED FOR A 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN
THREAT FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LEANED HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY CLOSE
TO ADJMETBC WITH VALUES FROM THE MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
MID 80S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES
SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT SUNDAY EVENING...AND WILL CONTINUE RAPIDLY
SOUTHEAST...EXITING THE SOUTHSIDE BY AROUND 6 AM MONDAY MORNING. THE
FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT A NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT THAT WILL USHER
IN COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN AIR...DEFINITELY A SIGNAL THAT AUTUMN
IS COMING AS WE APPROACH THE EQUINOX. DRIER AIR WILL CAUSE A RAPID
REDUCTION IN SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH ONLY
A FEW SPRINKLES REMAINING ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST FLOW UPSLOPE REGIONS
IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA BY DAWN.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY ON A 4MB TO 5MB
PRESSURE GRADIENT...RESULTING IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS REACHING 20
MPH TO OCCASIONALLY 25 MPH AT TIMES ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGES. GUSTS
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WILL BE LOWER...GENERALLY AROUND 15 MPH. WIND
SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH DURING EARLY EVENING AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE SINKS SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE OF OUR WEATHER
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...GRADUALLY PUSHING TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TO
BRING OUR WINDS INCREASINGLY NORTHEASTERLY. WITH CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO 40S...POSSIBLY INTO THE
UPPER 30S IN A FEW OF THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A 1032MB SURFACE HIGH THAT
STARTS IN SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH
OVER THE NE STATES BY SATURDAY. THE RESULT OF THIS WILL BE AN
EASTERLY WEDGE FLOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT OF A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW BY THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF TO OUR WEST...WHICH WILL IMPACT HOW MUCH MOISTURE CAN GET
PULLED INTO THE REGION. AT THIS POINT TRENDED TOWARD HPC AND THE
DRIER GFS SOLUTIONS AND KEPT JUST LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ANY
PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL LIKELY BE JUST PATCHY DRIZZLE WITH LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATION.

WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS AS THE MODELS ARE TYPICALLY TOO
WARM WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW. EXPECT SURFACE HIGHS OF MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO LOW 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM EDT SUNDAY...

HIGH CLOUDS AROUND A LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL REDUCE FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN THE PIEDMONT OF VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA EARLY
THIS MORNING. DID NOT INCLUDE FOG AT KDAN AND KLYH FOR THIS
MORNING. SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED A CLEAR SKY WEST OF THIS
CIRRUS. FOG WAS ALREADY FORMING AT KLWB IN THE GREENBRIER RIVER
VALLEY. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR HOW MUCH FOG WILL REDUCE THE VISIBILITY
AT KBCB THIS MORNING.

FOG WILL DISSIPATE AFTER DAYBREAK....BUT MOISTURE ADVANCING AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH
LOW END VFR CIGS BY LATE MORNING TO THE MOUNTAINS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT...AND GUSTS
20-25KTS ARE POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WINDS BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. MODELS
WERE SUGGESTING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BANK UP AGAINST THE
WESTERN SLOPS OF THE APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE AT KBLF AND KLWB AFTER MIDNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR IN THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL STILL
BE POSSIBLE AT NIGHT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/KK
NEAR TERM...KK/PM
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...AMS/PH



000
FXUS61 KRNK 210540
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
140 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LIFTS NORTH TO JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR
REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN. MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL COVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1015 PM EDT SATURDAY...

FORECAST ON TRACK. HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. GSO EVENING SOUNDING
INDICATED THIS CLOUD LAYER WAS BETWEEN 35-40KFT AGL OR 200-260 MB.
MODELS KEEP THIS MOISTURE PINNED MAINLY TO COAST JUST BRUSHING OUR
EASTERN CWA...WITH LYH/MTV/GSO AND POINTS EAST BECOMING OVC AT
TIMES OVERNIGHT FROM THIS HIGHER LAYER OF CLOUD. LOOKING WEST...
CLOUDS WERE ALSO APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...THIS CLOUD
COVER WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

THE UPPER TROUGH OVR THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DEEPEN AND TRAVEL
EAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST
TONIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE OF THE GEORGIA COAST LIFTS NORTHWARD IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
THE SOUTHEAST LOW CENTER TONIGHT. ADDED THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE ADJMAVBC WITH
READINGS FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE COOLER VALLEYS TO NEAR 60 IN
THE PIEDMONT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...TRAVEL ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY EVENING AND EXIT
THE PIEDMONT SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE STRONG MIDLEVEL FLOW AT 700 MB
AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPEN AND SOME INSTABILITY...SPC IN THE DAY
2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS ALLOWED FOR A 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN
THREAT FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LEANED HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY CLOSE
TO ADJMETBC WITH VALUES FROM THE MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
MID 80S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES
SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT SUNDAY EVENING...AND WILL CONTINUE RAPIDLY
SOUTHEAST...EXITING THE SOUTHSIDE BY AROUND 6 AM MONDAY MORNING. THE
FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT A NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT THAT WILL USHER
IN COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN AIR...DEFINITELY A SIGNAL THAT AUTUMN
IS COMING AS WE APPROACH THE EQUINOX. DRIER AIR WILL CAUSE A RAPID
REDUCTION IN SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH ONLY
A FEW SPRINKLES REMAINING ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST FLOW UPSLOPE REGIONS
IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA BY DAWN.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY ON A 4MB TO 5MB
PRESSURE GRADIENT...RESULTING IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS REACHING 20
MPH TO OCCASIONALLY 25 MPH AT TIMES ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGES. GUSTS
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WILL BE LOWER...GENERALLY AROUND 15 MPH. WIND
SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH DURING EARLY EVENING AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE SINKS SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE OF OUR WEATHER
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...GRADUALLY PUSHING TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TO
BRING OUR WINDS INCREASINGLY NORTHEASTERLY. WITH CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO 40S...POSSIBLY INTO THE
UPPER 30S IN A FEW OF THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A 1032MB SURFACE HIGH THAT
STARTS IN SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH
OVER THE NE STATES BY SATURDAY. THE RESULT OF THIS WILL BE AN
EASTERLY WEDGE FLOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT OF A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW BY THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF TO OUR WEST...WHICH WILL IMPACT HOW MUCH MOISTURE CAN GET
PULLED INTO THE REGION. AT THIS POINT TRENDED TOWARD HPC AND THE
DRIER GFS SOLUTIONS AND KEPT JUST LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ANY
PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL LIKELY BE JUST PATCHY DRIZZLE WITH LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATION.

WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS AS THE MODELS ARE TYPICALLY TOO
WARM WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW. EXPECT SURFACE HIGHS OF MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO LOW 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM EDT SUNDAY...

HIGH CLOUDS AROUND A LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL REDUCE FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN THE PIEDMONT OF VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA EARLY
THIS MORNING. DID NOT INCLUDE FOG AT KDAN AND KLYH FOR THIS
MORNING. SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED A CLEAR SKY WEST OF THIS
CIRRUS. FOG WAS ALREADY FORMING AT KLWB IN THE GREENBRIER RIVER
VALLEY. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR HOW MUCH FOG WILL REDUCE THE VISIBILITY
AT KBCB THIS MORNING.

FOG WILL DISSIPATE AFTER DAYBREAK....BUT MOISTURE ADVANCING AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH
LOW END VFR CIGS BY LATE MORNING TO THE MOUNTAINS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT...AND GUSTS
20-25KTS ARE POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WINDS BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. MODELS
WERE SUGGESTING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BANK UP AGAINST THE
WESTERN SLOPS OF THE APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE AT KBLF AND KLWB AFTER MIDNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR IN THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL STILL
BE POSSIBLE AT NIGHT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/KK
NEAR TERM...KK/PM
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...AMS/PH




000
FXUS61 KRNK 210215
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1015 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LIFTS NORTH TO JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR
REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN. MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL COVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1015 PM EDT SATURDAY...

FORECAST ON TRACK. HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. GSO EVENING SOUNDING
INDICATED THIS CLOUD LAYER WAS BETWEEN 35-40KFT AGL OR 200-260 MB.
MODELS KEEP THIS MOISTURE PINNED MAINLY TO COAST JUST BRUSHING OUR
EASTERN CWA...WITH LYH/MTV/GSO AND POINTS EAST BECOMING OVC AT
TIMES OVERNIGHT FROM THIS HIGHER LAYER OF CLOUD. LOOKING WEST...
CLOUDS WERE ALSO APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...THIS CLOUD
COVER WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

THE UPPER TROUGH OVR THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DEEPEN AND TRAVEL
EAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST
TONIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE OF THE GEORGIA COAST LIFTS NORTHWARD IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
THE SOUTHEAST LOW CENTER TONIGHT. ADDED THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE ADJMAVBC WITH
READINGS FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE COOLER VALLEYS TO NEAR 60 IN
THE PIEDMONT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...TRAVEL ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY EVENING AND EXIT
THE PIEDMONT SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE STRONG MIDLEVEL FLOW AT 700 MB
AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPEN AND SOME INSTABILITY...SPC IN THE DAY
2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS ALLOWED FOR A 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN
THREAT FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LEANED HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY CLOSE
TO ADJMETBC WITH VALUES FROM THE MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
MID 80S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES
SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT SUNDAY EVENING...AND WILL CONTINUE RAPIDLY
SOUTHEAST...EXITING THE SOUTHSIDE BY AROUND 6 AM MONDAY MORNING. THE
FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT A NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT THAT WILL USHER
IN COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN AIR...DEFINITELY A SIGNAL THAT AUTUMN
IS COMING AS WE APPROACH THE EQUINOX. DRIER AIR WILL CAUSE A RAPID
REDUCTION IN SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH ONLY
A FEW SPRINKLES REMAINING ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST FLOW UPSLOPE REGIONS
IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA BY DAWN.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY ON A 4MB TO 5MB
PRESSURE GRADIENT...RESULTING IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS REACHING 20
MPH TO OCCASIONALLY 25 MPH AT TIMES ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGES. GUSTS
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WILL BE LOWER...GENERALLY AROUND 15 MPH. WIND
SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH DURING EARLY EVENING AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE SINKS SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE OF OUR WEATHER
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...GRADUALLY PUSHING TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TO
BRING OUR WINDS INCREASINGLY NORTHEASTERLY. WITH CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO 40S...POSSIBLY INTO THE
UPPER 30S IN A FEW OF THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A 1032MB SURFACE HIGH THAT
STARTS IN SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH
OVER THE NE STATES BY SATURDAY. THE RESULT OF THIS WILL BE AN
EASTERLY WEDGE FLOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT OF A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW BY THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF TO OUR WEST...WHICH WILL IMPACT HOW MUCH MOISTURE CAN GET
PULLED INTO THE REGION. AT THIS POINT TRENDED TOWARD HPC AND THE
DRIER GFS SOLUTIONS AND KEPT JUST LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ANY
PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL LIKELY BE JUST PATCHY DRIZZLE WITH LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATION.

WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS AS THE MODELS ARE TYPICALLY TOO
WARM WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW. EXPECT SURFACE HIGHS OF MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO LOW 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 720 PM EDT SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS REPORTED AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART OF
THE NIGHT. FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS...IMPACTING VISIBILITIES AT KLWB AND KBCB. LIFR
VISIBILITIES EXPECTED AT KLWB WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KBCB.
AFTER AN ENTIRE DAY OF DRYING AND SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS
COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY...CHANCES FOR FOG AT KDAN AND
KLYH ARE LOWER...AND FOG WAS NOT INCLUDED AT THESE SITES.

FOG WILL DISSIPATE SUNDAY MORNING AFTER DAYBREAK....BUT MOISTURE
ADVANCING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...WITH LOW VFR CIGS BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING TO THE
MOUNTAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE WITH THE
APPROACHING FRONT...AND GUSTS 20-25KTS ARE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DURING THE
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL BRING
DRIER AIR TO THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK PROMOTING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS. RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AT NIGHT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/KK
NEAR TERM...KK/PM
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...PH



000
FXUS61 KRNK 210215
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1015 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LIFTS NORTH TO JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR
REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN. MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL COVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1015 PM EDT SATURDAY...

FORECAST ON TRACK. HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. GSO EVENING SOUNDING
INDICATED THIS CLOUD LAYER WAS BETWEEN 35-40KFT AGL OR 200-260 MB.
MODELS KEEP THIS MOISTURE PINNED MAINLY TO COAST JUST BRUSHING OUR
EASTERN CWA...WITH LYH/MTV/GSO AND POINTS EAST BECOMING OVC AT
TIMES OVERNIGHT FROM THIS HIGHER LAYER OF CLOUD. LOOKING WEST...
CLOUDS WERE ALSO APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...THIS CLOUD
COVER WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

THE UPPER TROUGH OVR THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DEEPEN AND TRAVEL
EAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST
TONIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE OF THE GEORGIA COAST LIFTS NORTHWARD IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
THE SOUTHEAST LOW CENTER TONIGHT. ADDED THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE ADJMAVBC WITH
READINGS FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE COOLER VALLEYS TO NEAR 60 IN
THE PIEDMONT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...TRAVEL ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY EVENING AND EXIT
THE PIEDMONT SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE STRONG MIDLEVEL FLOW AT 700 MB
AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPEN AND SOME INSTABILITY...SPC IN THE DAY
2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS ALLOWED FOR A 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN
THREAT FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LEANED HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY CLOSE
TO ADJMETBC WITH VALUES FROM THE MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
MID 80S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES
SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT SUNDAY EVENING...AND WILL CONTINUE RAPIDLY
SOUTHEAST...EXITING THE SOUTHSIDE BY AROUND 6 AM MONDAY MORNING. THE
FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT A NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT THAT WILL USHER
IN COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN AIR...DEFINITELY A SIGNAL THAT AUTUMN
IS COMING AS WE APPROACH THE EQUINOX. DRIER AIR WILL CAUSE A RAPID
REDUCTION IN SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH ONLY
A FEW SPRINKLES REMAINING ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST FLOW UPSLOPE REGIONS
IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA BY DAWN.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY ON A 4MB TO 5MB
PRESSURE GRADIENT...RESULTING IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS REACHING 20
MPH TO OCCASIONALLY 25 MPH AT TIMES ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGES. GUSTS
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WILL BE LOWER...GENERALLY AROUND 15 MPH. WIND
SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH DURING EARLY EVENING AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE SINKS SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE OF OUR WEATHER
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...GRADUALLY PUSHING TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TO
BRING OUR WINDS INCREASINGLY NORTHEASTERLY. WITH CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO 40S...POSSIBLY INTO THE
UPPER 30S IN A FEW OF THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A 1032MB SURFACE HIGH THAT
STARTS IN SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH
OVER THE NE STATES BY SATURDAY. THE RESULT OF THIS WILL BE AN
EASTERLY WEDGE FLOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT OF A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW BY THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF TO OUR WEST...WHICH WILL IMPACT HOW MUCH MOISTURE CAN GET
PULLED INTO THE REGION. AT THIS POINT TRENDED TOWARD HPC AND THE
DRIER GFS SOLUTIONS AND KEPT JUST LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ANY
PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL LIKELY BE JUST PATCHY DRIZZLE WITH LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATION.

WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS AS THE MODELS ARE TYPICALLY TOO
WARM WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW. EXPECT SURFACE HIGHS OF MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO LOW 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 720 PM EDT SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS REPORTED AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART OF
THE NIGHT. FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS...IMPACTING VISIBILITIES AT KLWB AND KBCB. LIFR
VISIBILITIES EXPECTED AT KLWB WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KBCB.
AFTER AN ENTIRE DAY OF DRYING AND SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS
COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY...CHANCES FOR FOG AT KDAN AND
KLYH ARE LOWER...AND FOG WAS NOT INCLUDED AT THESE SITES.

FOG WILL DISSIPATE SUNDAY MORNING AFTER DAYBREAK....BUT MOISTURE
ADVANCING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...WITH LOW VFR CIGS BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING TO THE
MOUNTAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE WITH THE
APPROACHING FRONT...AND GUSTS 20-25KTS ARE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DURING THE
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL BRING
DRIER AIR TO THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK PROMOTING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS. RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AT NIGHT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/KK
NEAR TERM...KK/PM
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...PH




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210143
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
943 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE...AND COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS...FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SFC HI PRES EXITING E OF NEW ENG THIS EVE...WHILE SFC LO PRES
SLOLY DEVELOPING SE OF CHS. RA FM ECNTRL NC CONTS TO HAVE
DIFFICULTY MOVING INTO CSTL NE NC SO FAR THIS EVE. 00Z/21 RUC
BRINGS AT LEAST SCT SHRAS NWD ACRS CSTL NE NC...MNLY E OF THE
CHOWAN RIVER...AND INTO EXTREME SE VA AFT 04-06Z/21. HAVE INCRSD
POPS A LITTLE OVR THOSE AREAS FOR THE REST OF THE NGT...WHILE LWRG
POPS TO THE N OVR THE ERN SHORES OF VA/MD. WIDESPREAD CLDNS WILL
COVER MOST OF ERN INTO CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE FA OVRNGT...THOUGH
LOWEST CIGS LIKELY TO BE CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF HAMPTON RDS ON S
OVR (CSTL) NE NC.

ONLY MADE VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS FOR THE OVRNGT HRS BASED
ON TRENDS AND LATEST NEAR TERM GUID. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT CLOSE TO OR
SLIGHT ABOVE THIS MORNINGS TEMPS AWAY FROM THE BAY/OCEAN...WITH
MANY AREAS W OF I95 CORRIDOR AT OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW 60F. CLOSER
TO THE BAY/OCEAN...CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIP SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE
60S. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPED LAST NIGHT...AND EXPECT IT AGAIN TONIGHT
IN AREAS AWAY FROM THE WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST RUC SLOWER W/ EXIT OF CLDS/PCPN INVOF (SE VA/NE NC) CST SUN
MORNING...SO HAVE SLOWED DOWN TAPERING OF POPS W-E. OTRW...THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT SEVERAL WILL BE ON SUNDAY...WITH MANY
AREAS SEEING THE UPPER 80S...AND ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO MAKE INTO
THE LOWER 80S...AS CONDS ARE P/MSNY W...AND CLEARING (MIDDAY/AFTN)
E.

A COLD FRONT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
EVENING. MODELS INDICATE LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD
OF FRONT...SO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED. HAVE
INCREASED POPS SUNDAY EVENING IN THE PIEDMONT AREA TO 30%...MAINLY
IN DEFERENCE TO NAM12 PRECIP DEPICTION. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A
SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS SUNDAY EVENING...WITH SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRONT WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST...BUT ANY PRECIP BEYOND 04Z EXPECTED TO
BE WIDELY SCATTERED. AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE
FA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE
REGION WITH MUCH DRIER AIR...AND MAX TEMPS 75-80 DEGREES.

THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50. A
SUNNY PLEASANT DAY EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE OH VALLEY/NE
STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE
OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO
PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL STICK TO 20% POPS FOR
NOW. IN GENERAL 12Z GFS KEEPS ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE ECMWF
BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED. HI TEMPS WILL AVG IN THE
MID TO UPR 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 50S TO LWR 60S OVR
MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. WINDS TURN
TO NORTHERLY ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE
COAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING MVFR STRATUS TO ALL BUT RIC AND
SOME IFR IS EXPECTED AT SBY AND ECG. THE WEATHER IMPROVES BY LATE
MORNING TO MIDDAY SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SLGT TO LOW CHCS FOR
SHOWERS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
SLGT CHCS FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
8 PM UPDATE...SEAS AND WAVES AT CAPE CHARLES BUOY AND FIRST
LANDING RESPECTIVELY ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH SIGN OF SUBSIDING.
MODELS ARE INSISTENT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS SOON AND THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN WAVES DROPPING BELOW SCA IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. THE
SCA EXPIRATION OF 10 PM SEEMED TOO SOON FOR THAT AND ADJUSTED
THAT TO 1 AM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SFC HI PRES STRETCHES DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC
CST TNGT AS LO PRES PASSES OFFSHORE. AS FAR AS HEADLINES...SCA OVR
THE MOUTH OF THE BAY WILL CONTINUE THRU 10 PM DUE TO 4 FT WAVES.
HIGH SEAS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVR THE CSTL WTRS DUE TO PROLONGED
ERLY/NERLY FETCH. WILL CONTINUE HEADLINES THERE INTO
TOMORO...ENDING THEM FM N TO S THRU THE DAY AS FLOW BCMS NLY. A
COLD FRNT CROSSES THE WTRS LATE SUN/ERLY MON...WITH CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO STAY SUB-SCA POST FRNTAL DUE TO A WEAK GRADIENT AND
CAA. SECONDARY SURGE AND HI PRES BLDG N OF THE AREA MON NGT MAY
BRING WINDS JUST SHY OF 20 KT OVR THE BAY...BUT WILL CAP AT AROUND
15 KT FOR NOW. FOR TUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER
PROLONGED PERIOD OF NE FLOW WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED WAVES AND SEAS
AND SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
MONITORING TIDES INVOF MIDDLE BAY (SPECIFICALLY LEWISETTA
VA...CAMBRIDGE AND BISHOPS HEAD MD)...WHERE FCST LEVELS FOR TIDES
OVNNGT TO FALL JUST SHORT OF MINOR THRESHOLDS. TIDAL DEPARTURES
ARE RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ATTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM/WRS
NEAR TERM...ALB/WRS
SHORT TERM...WRS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAS/LSA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...












000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210143
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
943 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE...AND COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS...FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SFC HI PRES EXITING E OF NEW ENG THIS EVE...WHILE SFC LO PRES
SLOLY DEVELOPING SE OF CHS. RA FM ECNTRL NC CONTS TO HAVE
DIFFICULTY MOVING INTO CSTL NE NC SO FAR THIS EVE. 00Z/21 RUC
BRINGS AT LEAST SCT SHRAS NWD ACRS CSTL NE NC...MNLY E OF THE
CHOWAN RIVER...AND INTO EXTREME SE VA AFT 04-06Z/21. HAVE INCRSD
POPS A LITTLE OVR THOSE AREAS FOR THE REST OF THE NGT...WHILE LWRG
POPS TO THE N OVR THE ERN SHORES OF VA/MD. WIDESPREAD CLDNS WILL
COVER MOST OF ERN INTO CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE FA OVRNGT...THOUGH
LOWEST CIGS LIKELY TO BE CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF HAMPTON RDS ON S
OVR (CSTL) NE NC.

ONLY MADE VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS FOR THE OVRNGT HRS BASED
ON TRENDS AND LATEST NEAR TERM GUID. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT CLOSE TO OR
SLIGHT ABOVE THIS MORNINGS TEMPS AWAY FROM THE BAY/OCEAN...WITH
MANY AREAS W OF I95 CORRIDOR AT OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW 60F. CLOSER
TO THE BAY/OCEAN...CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIP SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE
60S. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPED LAST NIGHT...AND EXPECT IT AGAIN TONIGHT
IN AREAS AWAY FROM THE WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST RUC SLOWER W/ EXIT OF CLDS/PCPN INVOF (SE VA/NE NC) CST SUN
MORNING...SO HAVE SLOWED DOWN TAPERING OF POPS W-E. OTRW...THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT SEVERAL WILL BE ON SUNDAY...WITH MANY
AREAS SEEING THE UPPER 80S...AND ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO MAKE INTO
THE LOWER 80S...AS CONDS ARE P/MSNY W...AND CLEARING (MIDDAY/AFTN)
E.

A COLD FRONT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
EVENING. MODELS INDICATE LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD
OF FRONT...SO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED. HAVE
INCREASED POPS SUNDAY EVENING IN THE PIEDMONT AREA TO 30%...MAINLY
IN DEFERENCE TO NAM12 PRECIP DEPICTION. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A
SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS SUNDAY EVENING...WITH SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRONT WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST...BUT ANY PRECIP BEYOND 04Z EXPECTED TO
BE WIDELY SCATTERED. AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE
FA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE
REGION WITH MUCH DRIER AIR...AND MAX TEMPS 75-80 DEGREES.

THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50. A
SUNNY PLEASANT DAY EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE OH VALLEY/NE
STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE
OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO
PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL STICK TO 20% POPS FOR
NOW. IN GENERAL 12Z GFS KEEPS ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE ECMWF
BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED. HI TEMPS WILL AVG IN THE
MID TO UPR 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 50S TO LWR 60S OVR
MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. WINDS TURN
TO NORTHERLY ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE
COAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING MVFR STRATUS TO ALL BUT RIC AND
SOME IFR IS EXPECTED AT SBY AND ECG. THE WEATHER IMPROVES BY LATE
MORNING TO MIDDAY SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SLGT TO LOW CHCS FOR
SHOWERS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
SLGT CHCS FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
8 PM UPDATE...SEAS AND WAVES AT CAPE CHARLES BUOY AND FIRST
LANDING RESPECTIVELY ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH SIGN OF SUBSIDING.
MODELS ARE INSISTENT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS SOON AND THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN WAVES DROPPING BELOW SCA IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. THE
SCA EXPIRATION OF 10 PM SEEMED TOO SOON FOR THAT AND ADJUSTED
THAT TO 1 AM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SFC HI PRES STRETCHES DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC
CST TNGT AS LO PRES PASSES OFFSHORE. AS FAR AS HEADLINES...SCA OVR
THE MOUTH OF THE BAY WILL CONTINUE THRU 10 PM DUE TO 4 FT WAVES.
HIGH SEAS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVR THE CSTL WTRS DUE TO PROLONGED
ERLY/NERLY FETCH. WILL CONTINUE HEADLINES THERE INTO
TOMORO...ENDING THEM FM N TO S THRU THE DAY AS FLOW BCMS NLY. A
COLD FRNT CROSSES THE WTRS LATE SUN/ERLY MON...WITH CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO STAY SUB-SCA POST FRNTAL DUE TO A WEAK GRADIENT AND
CAA. SECONDARY SURGE AND HI PRES BLDG N OF THE AREA MON NGT MAY
BRING WINDS JUST SHY OF 20 KT OVR THE BAY...BUT WILL CAP AT AROUND
15 KT FOR NOW. FOR TUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER
PROLONGED PERIOD OF NE FLOW WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED WAVES AND SEAS
AND SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
MONITORING TIDES INVOF MIDDLE BAY (SPECIFICALLY LEWISETTA
VA...CAMBRIDGE AND BISHOPS HEAD MD)...WHERE FCST LEVELS FOR TIDES
OVNNGT TO FALL JUST SHORT OF MINOR THRESHOLDS. TIDAL DEPARTURES
ARE RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ATTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM/WRS
NEAR TERM...ALB/WRS
SHORT TERM...WRS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAS/LSA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...











000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210137
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
937 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE...AND COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS...FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SFC HI PRES EXITING E OF NEW ENG THIS EVE...WHILE SFC LO PRES
SLOLY DEVELOPING SE OF CHS. RA FM ECNTRL NC CONTS TO HAVE
DIFFICULTY MOVING INTO CSTL NE NC SO FAR THIS EVE. 00Z/21 RUC
BRINGS AT LEAST SCT SHRAS NWD ACRS CSTL NE NC...MNLY E OF THE
CHOWAN RIVER...AND INTO EXTREME SE VA AFT 04-06Z/21. HAVE INCRSD
POPS A LITTLE OVR THOSE AREAS FOR THE REST OF THE NGT...WHILE LWRG
POPS TO THE N OVR THE ERN SHORES OF VA/MD. WIDESPREAD CLDNS WILL
COVER MOST OF ERN INTO CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE FA OVRNGT...THOUGH
LOWEST CIGS LIKELY TO BE CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF HAMPTON RDS ON S
OVR (CSTL) NE NC.

ONLY MADE VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS FOR THE OVRNGT HRS BASED
ON TRENDS AND LATEST NEAR TERM GUID. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT CLOSE TO OR
SLIGHT ABOVE THIS MORNINGS TEMPS AWAY FROM THE BAY/OCEAN...WITH
MANY AREAS W OF I95 CORRIDOR AT OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW 60F. CLOSER
TO THE BAY/OCEAN...CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIP SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE
60S. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPED LAST NIGHT...AND EXPECT IT AGAIN TONIGHT
IN AREAS AWAY FROM THE WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST RUC SLOWER W/ EXIT OF CLDS/PCPN INVOF (SE VA/NE NC) CST SUN
MORNING...SO HAVE SLOWED DOWN TAPERING OF POPS W-E. OTRW...THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT SEVERAL WILL BE ON SUNDAY...WITH MANY
AREAS SEEING THE UPPER 80S...AND ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO MAKE INTO
THE LOWER 80S...AS CONDS ARE P/MSNY W...AND CLEARING (MIDDAY/AFTN)
E.

A COLD FRONT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
EVENING. MODELS INDICATE LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD
OF FRONT...SO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED. HAVE
INCREASED POPS SUNDAY EVENING IN THE PIEDMONT AREA TO 30%...MAINLY
IN DEFERENCE TO NAM12 PRECIP DEPICTION. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A
SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS SUNDAY EVENING...WITH SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRONT WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST...BUT ANY PRECIP BEYOND 04Z EXPECTED TO
BE WIDELY SCATTERED. AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE
FA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE
REGION WITH MUCH DRIER AIR...AND MAX TEMPS 75-80 DEGREES.

THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50. A
SUNNY PLEASANT DAY EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE OH VALLEY/NE
STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE
OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO
PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL STICK TO 20% POPS FOR
NOW. IN GENERAL 12Z GFS KEEPS ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE ECMWF
BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED. HI TEMPS WILL AVG IN THE
MID TO UPR 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 50S TO LWR 60S OVR
MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. WINDS TURN
TO NORTHERLY ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE
COAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING MVFR STRATUS TO ALL BUT RIC AND
SOME IFR IS EXPECTED AT SBY AND ECG. THE WEATHER IMPROVES BY LATE
MORNING TO MIDDAY SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SLGT TO LOW CHCS FOR
SHOWERS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
SLGT CHCS FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
8 PM UPDATE...SEAS AND WAVES AT CAPE CHARLES BUOY AND FIRST
LANDING RESPECTIVELY ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH SIGN OF SUBSIDING.
MODELS ARE INSISTENT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS SOON AND THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN WAVES DROPPING BELOW SCA IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. THE
SCA EXPIRATION OF 10 PM SEEMED TOO SOON FOR THAT AND ADJUSTED
THAT TO 1 AM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SFC HI PRES STRETCHES DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC
CST TNGT AS LO PRES PASSES OFFSHORE. AS FAR AS HEADLINES...SCA OVR
THE MOUTH OF THE BAY WILL CONTINUE THRU 10 PM DUE TO 4 FT WAVES.
HIGH SEAS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVR THE CSTL WTRS DUE TO PROLONGED
ERLY/NERLY FETCH. WILL CONTINUE HEADLINES THERE INTO
TOMORO...ENDING THEM FM N TO S THRU THE DAY AS FLOW BCMS NLY. A
COLD FRNT CROSSES THE WTRS LATE SUN/ERLY MON...WITH CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO STAY SUB-SCA POST FRNTAL DUE TO A WEAK GRADIENT AND
CAA. SECONDARY SURGE AND HI PRES BLDG N OF THE AREA MON NGT MAY
BRING WINDS JUST SHY OF 20 KT OVR THE BAY...BUT WILL CAP AT AROUND
15 KT FOR NOW. FOR TUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER
PROLONGED PERIOD OF NE FLOW WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED WAVES AND SEAS
AND SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM/WRS
NEAR TERM...ALB/WRS
SHORT TERM...WRS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAS/LSA


















000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210137
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
937 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE...AND COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS...FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SFC HI PRES EXITING E OF NEW ENG THIS EVE...WHILE SFC LO PRES
SLOLY DEVELOPING SE OF CHS. RA FM ECNTRL NC CONTS TO HAVE
DIFFICULTY MOVING INTO CSTL NE NC SO FAR THIS EVE. 00Z/21 RUC
BRINGS AT LEAST SCT SHRAS NWD ACRS CSTL NE NC...MNLY E OF THE
CHOWAN RIVER...AND INTO EXTREME SE VA AFT 04-06Z/21. HAVE INCRSD
POPS A LITTLE OVR THOSE AREAS FOR THE REST OF THE NGT...WHILE LWRG
POPS TO THE N OVR THE ERN SHORES OF VA/MD. WIDESPREAD CLDNS WILL
COVER MOST OF ERN INTO CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE FA OVRNGT...THOUGH
LOWEST CIGS LIKELY TO BE CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF HAMPTON RDS ON S
OVR (CSTL) NE NC.

ONLY MADE VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS FOR THE OVRNGT HRS BASED
ON TRENDS AND LATEST NEAR TERM GUID. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT CLOSE TO OR
SLIGHT ABOVE THIS MORNINGS TEMPS AWAY FROM THE BAY/OCEAN...WITH
MANY AREAS W OF I95 CORRIDOR AT OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW 60F. CLOSER
TO THE BAY/OCEAN...CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIP SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE
60S. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPED LAST NIGHT...AND EXPECT IT AGAIN TONIGHT
IN AREAS AWAY FROM THE WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST RUC SLOWER W/ EXIT OF CLDS/PCPN INVOF (SE VA/NE NC) CST SUN
MORNING...SO HAVE SLOWED DOWN TAPERING OF POPS W-E. OTRW...THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT SEVERAL WILL BE ON SUNDAY...WITH MANY
AREAS SEEING THE UPPER 80S...AND ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO MAKE INTO
THE LOWER 80S...AS CONDS ARE P/MSNY W...AND CLEARING (MIDDAY/AFTN)
E.

A COLD FRONT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
EVENING. MODELS INDICATE LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD
OF FRONT...SO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED. HAVE
INCREASED POPS SUNDAY EVENING IN THE PIEDMONT AREA TO 30%...MAINLY
IN DEFERENCE TO NAM12 PRECIP DEPICTION. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A
SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS SUNDAY EVENING...WITH SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRONT WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST...BUT ANY PRECIP BEYOND 04Z EXPECTED TO
BE WIDELY SCATTERED. AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE
FA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE
REGION WITH MUCH DRIER AIR...AND MAX TEMPS 75-80 DEGREES.

THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50. A
SUNNY PLEASANT DAY EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE OH VALLEY/NE
STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE
OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO
PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL STICK TO 20% POPS FOR
NOW. IN GENERAL 12Z GFS KEEPS ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE ECMWF
BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED. HI TEMPS WILL AVG IN THE
MID TO UPR 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 50S TO LWR 60S OVR
MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. WINDS TURN
TO NORTHERLY ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE
COAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING MVFR STRATUS TO ALL BUT RIC AND
SOME IFR IS EXPECTED AT SBY AND ECG. THE WEATHER IMPROVES BY LATE
MORNING TO MIDDAY SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SLGT TO LOW CHCS FOR
SHOWERS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
SLGT CHCS FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
8 PM UPDATE...SEAS AND WAVES AT CAPE CHARLES BUOY AND FIRST
LANDING RESPECTIVELY ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH SIGN OF SUBSIDING.
MODELS ARE INSISTENT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS SOON AND THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN WAVES DROPPING BELOW SCA IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. THE
SCA EXPIRATION OF 10 PM SEEMED TOO SOON FOR THAT AND ADJUSTED
THAT TO 1 AM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SFC HI PRES STRETCHES DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC
CST TNGT AS LO PRES PASSES OFFSHORE. AS FAR AS HEADLINES...SCA OVR
THE MOUTH OF THE BAY WILL CONTINUE THRU 10 PM DUE TO 4 FT WAVES.
HIGH SEAS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVR THE CSTL WTRS DUE TO PROLONGED
ERLY/NERLY FETCH. WILL CONTINUE HEADLINES THERE INTO
TOMORO...ENDING THEM FM N TO S THRU THE DAY AS FLOW BCMS NLY. A
COLD FRNT CROSSES THE WTRS LATE SUN/ERLY MON...WITH CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO STAY SUB-SCA POST FRNTAL DUE TO A WEAK GRADIENT AND
CAA. SECONDARY SURGE AND HI PRES BLDG N OF THE AREA MON NGT MAY
BRING WINDS JUST SHY OF 20 KT OVR THE BAY...BUT WILL CAP AT AROUND
15 KT FOR NOW. FOR TUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER
PROLONGED PERIOD OF NE FLOW WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED WAVES AND SEAS
AND SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM/WRS
NEAR TERM...ALB/WRS
SHORT TERM...WRS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAS/LSA


















000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210137
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
937 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE...AND COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS...FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SFC HI PRES EXITING E OF NEW ENG THIS EVE...WHILE SFC LO PRES
SLOLY DEVELOPING SE OF CHS. RA FM ECNTRL NC CONTS TO HAVE
DIFFICULTY MOVING INTO CSTL NE NC SO FAR THIS EVE. 00Z/21 RUC
BRINGS AT LEAST SCT SHRAS NWD ACRS CSTL NE NC...MNLY E OF THE
CHOWAN RIVER...AND INTO EXTREME SE VA AFT 04-06Z/21. HAVE INCRSD
POPS A LITTLE OVR THOSE AREAS FOR THE REST OF THE NGT...WHILE LWRG
POPS TO THE N OVR THE ERN SHORES OF VA/MD. WIDESPREAD CLDNS WILL
COVER MOST OF ERN INTO CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE FA OVRNGT...THOUGH
LOWEST CIGS LIKELY TO BE CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF HAMPTON RDS ON S
OVR (CSTL) NE NC.

ONLY MADE VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS FOR THE OVRNGT HRS BASED
ON TRENDS AND LATEST NEAR TERM GUID. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT CLOSE TO OR
SLIGHT ABOVE THIS MORNINGS TEMPS AWAY FROM THE BAY/OCEAN...WITH
MANY AREAS W OF I95 CORRIDOR AT OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW 60F. CLOSER
TO THE BAY/OCEAN...CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIP SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE
60S. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPED LAST NIGHT...AND EXPECT IT AGAIN TONIGHT
IN AREAS AWAY FROM THE WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST RUC SLOWER W/ EXIT OF CLDS/PCPN INVOF (SE VA/NE NC) CST SUN
MORNING...SO HAVE SLOWED DOWN TAPERING OF POPS W-E. OTRW...THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT SEVERAL WILL BE ON SUNDAY...WITH MANY
AREAS SEEING THE UPPER 80S...AND ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO MAKE INTO
THE LOWER 80S...AS CONDS ARE P/MSNY W...AND CLEARING (MIDDAY/AFTN)
E.

A COLD FRONT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
EVENING. MODELS INDICATE LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD
OF FRONT...SO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED. HAVE
INCREASED POPS SUNDAY EVENING IN THE PIEDMONT AREA TO 30%...MAINLY
IN DEFERENCE TO NAM12 PRECIP DEPICTION. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A
SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS SUNDAY EVENING...WITH SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRONT WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST...BUT ANY PRECIP BEYOND 04Z EXPECTED TO
BE WIDELY SCATTERED. AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE
FA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE
REGION WITH MUCH DRIER AIR...AND MAX TEMPS 75-80 DEGREES.

THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50. A
SUNNY PLEASANT DAY EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE OH VALLEY/NE
STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE
OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO
PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL STICK TO 20% POPS FOR
NOW. IN GENERAL 12Z GFS KEEPS ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE ECMWF
BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED. HI TEMPS WILL AVG IN THE
MID TO UPR 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 50S TO LWR 60S OVR
MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. WINDS TURN
TO NORTHERLY ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE
COAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING MVFR STRATUS TO ALL BUT RIC AND
SOME IFR IS EXPECTED AT SBY AND ECG. THE WEATHER IMPROVES BY LATE
MORNING TO MIDDAY SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SLGT TO LOW CHCS FOR
SHOWERS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
SLGT CHCS FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
8 PM UPDATE...SEAS AND WAVES AT CAPE CHARLES BUOY AND FIRST
LANDING RESPECTIVELY ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH SIGN OF SUBSIDING.
MODELS ARE INSISTENT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS SOON AND THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN WAVES DROPPING BELOW SCA IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. THE
SCA EXPIRATION OF 10 PM SEEMED TOO SOON FOR THAT AND ADJUSTED
THAT TO 1 AM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SFC HI PRES STRETCHES DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC
CST TNGT AS LO PRES PASSES OFFSHORE. AS FAR AS HEADLINES...SCA OVR
THE MOUTH OF THE BAY WILL CONTINUE THRU 10 PM DUE TO 4 FT WAVES.
HIGH SEAS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVR THE CSTL WTRS DUE TO PROLONGED
ERLY/NERLY FETCH. WILL CONTINUE HEADLINES THERE INTO
TOMORO...ENDING THEM FM N TO S THRU THE DAY AS FLOW BCMS NLY. A
COLD FRNT CROSSES THE WTRS LATE SUN/ERLY MON...WITH CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO STAY SUB-SCA POST FRNTAL DUE TO A WEAK GRADIENT AND
CAA. SECONDARY SURGE AND HI PRES BLDG N OF THE AREA MON NGT MAY
BRING WINDS JUST SHY OF 20 KT OVR THE BAY...BUT WILL CAP AT AROUND
15 KT FOR NOW. FOR TUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER
PROLONGED PERIOD OF NE FLOW WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED WAVES AND SEAS
AND SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM/WRS
NEAR TERM...ALB/WRS
SHORT TERM...WRS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAS/LSA


















000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210137
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
937 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE...AND COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS...FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SFC HI PRES EXITING E OF NEW ENG THIS EVE...WHILE SFC LO PRES
SLOLY DEVELOPING SE OF CHS. RA FM ECNTRL NC CONTS TO HAVE
DIFFICULTY MOVING INTO CSTL NE NC SO FAR THIS EVE. 00Z/21 RUC
BRINGS AT LEAST SCT SHRAS NWD ACRS CSTL NE NC...MNLY E OF THE
CHOWAN RIVER...AND INTO EXTREME SE VA AFT 04-06Z/21. HAVE INCRSD
POPS A LITTLE OVR THOSE AREAS FOR THE REST OF THE NGT...WHILE LWRG
POPS TO THE N OVR THE ERN SHORES OF VA/MD. WIDESPREAD CLDNS WILL
COVER MOST OF ERN INTO CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE FA OVRNGT...THOUGH
LOWEST CIGS LIKELY TO BE CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF HAMPTON RDS ON S
OVR (CSTL) NE NC.

ONLY MADE VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS FOR THE OVRNGT HRS BASED
ON TRENDS AND LATEST NEAR TERM GUID. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT CLOSE TO OR
SLIGHT ABOVE THIS MORNINGS TEMPS AWAY FROM THE BAY/OCEAN...WITH
MANY AREAS W OF I95 CORRIDOR AT OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW 60F. CLOSER
TO THE BAY/OCEAN...CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIP SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE
60S. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPED LAST NIGHT...AND EXPECT IT AGAIN TONIGHT
IN AREAS AWAY FROM THE WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST RUC SLOWER W/ EXIT OF CLDS/PCPN INVOF (SE VA/NE NC) CST SUN
MORNING...SO HAVE SLOWED DOWN TAPERING OF POPS W-E. OTRW...THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT SEVERAL WILL BE ON SUNDAY...WITH MANY
AREAS SEEING THE UPPER 80S...AND ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO MAKE INTO
THE LOWER 80S...AS CONDS ARE P/MSNY W...AND CLEARING (MIDDAY/AFTN)
E.

A COLD FRONT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
EVENING. MODELS INDICATE LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD
OF FRONT...SO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED. HAVE
INCREASED POPS SUNDAY EVENING IN THE PIEDMONT AREA TO 30%...MAINLY
IN DEFERENCE TO NAM12 PRECIP DEPICTION. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A
SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS SUNDAY EVENING...WITH SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRONT WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST...BUT ANY PRECIP BEYOND 04Z EXPECTED TO
BE WIDELY SCATTERED. AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE
FA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE
REGION WITH MUCH DRIER AIR...AND MAX TEMPS 75-80 DEGREES.

THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50. A
SUNNY PLEASANT DAY EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE OH VALLEY/NE
STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE
OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO
PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL STICK TO 20% POPS FOR
NOW. IN GENERAL 12Z GFS KEEPS ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE ECMWF
BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED. HI TEMPS WILL AVG IN THE
MID TO UPR 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 50S TO LWR 60S OVR
MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. WINDS TURN
TO NORTHERLY ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE
COAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING MVFR STRATUS TO ALL BUT RIC AND
SOME IFR IS EXPECTED AT SBY AND ECG. THE WEATHER IMPROVES BY LATE
MORNING TO MIDDAY SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SLGT TO LOW CHCS FOR
SHOWERS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
SLGT CHCS FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
8 PM UPDATE...SEAS AND WAVES AT CAPE CHARLES BUOY AND FIRST
LANDING RESPECTIVELY ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH SIGN OF SUBSIDING.
MODELS ARE INSISTENT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS SOON AND THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN WAVES DROPPING BELOW SCA IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. THE
SCA EXPIRATION OF 10 PM SEEMED TOO SOON FOR THAT AND ADJUSTED
THAT TO 1 AM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SFC HI PRES STRETCHES DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC
CST TNGT AS LO PRES PASSES OFFSHORE. AS FAR AS HEADLINES...SCA OVR
THE MOUTH OF THE BAY WILL CONTINUE THRU 10 PM DUE TO 4 FT WAVES.
HIGH SEAS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVR THE CSTL WTRS DUE TO PROLONGED
ERLY/NERLY FETCH. WILL CONTINUE HEADLINES THERE INTO
TOMORO...ENDING THEM FM N TO S THRU THE DAY AS FLOW BCMS NLY. A
COLD FRNT CROSSES THE WTRS LATE SUN/ERLY MON...WITH CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO STAY SUB-SCA POST FRNTAL DUE TO A WEAK GRADIENT AND
CAA. SECONDARY SURGE AND HI PRES BLDG N OF THE AREA MON NGT MAY
BRING WINDS JUST SHY OF 20 KT OVR THE BAY...BUT WILL CAP AT AROUND
15 KT FOR NOW. FOR TUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER
PROLONGED PERIOD OF NE FLOW WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED WAVES AND SEAS
AND SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM/WRS
NEAR TERM...ALB/WRS
SHORT TERM...WRS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAS/LSA


















000
FXUS61 KLWX 210121
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
921 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL MOVE
EAST INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY A RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC AT 01Z SHOWS RAIN SHIELD FROM THE LOW PRES
OVER SE US COAST APPROACHING TIDEWATER VA. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
HAS HIGH CLOUDS REACHING SOUTHERN MD FROM THE SAME SYSTEM. KEEPING
IN SLIGHT CHC POPS OVER SOUTHERN MD OVERNIGHT...AS THEY COULD GET
SOME SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN AS THE SYSTEM PULLS TO THE NORTHEAST.

ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT IN THE USUAL
SUSPECT VALLEY AND PIEDMONT LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE UNREMARKABLE
WEATHER WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S WEST OF I-95...LOWER 60S
EAST OF I-95 DUE TO THE BAY INFLUENCE ON S/SE FLOW...AND MID 60S
IN DC AND BALT METRO AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OFFSHORE AND THEN A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES DURING THE DAY AND CROSSES LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. FIVE PERCENT RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND FROM SPC ROUGHLY
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN TIMING DURING PEAK
HEATING. MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 80S (PERHAPS UPR 80S EAST OF I-95
IF MORNING CLOUDS CLEAR SOON ENOUGH) AND LIFTED INDICES FROM THE
GFS AROUND -2.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MONDAY WITH NWLY WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 MPH.
MAX TEMPS LOW TO MID 70S. CLOUDS CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY...SUNNY BY
THE AFTERNOON.

CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING
OVER THE AREA. MIN TEMPS COULD BE INTO THE MID 30S IN THE
ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS WHERE FROST IS POSSIBLE. MENTIONED THIS IN THE
HWO. OTHERWISE...MIN TEMPS LOW TO MID 40S...MID 50S NEAR SHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DEEP-LAYER RIDGING WILL ENTRENCH ITSELF OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES BEGINNING TUESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A
SEASONABLY COOL AND INITIALLY DRIER AIRMASS. BUT AS THE HIGH
MIGRATES TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK
AN ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS WHICH WILL LEAD TO GRADUALLY INCREASING
MOISTURE. THIS COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN BY THE
END OF THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS FROM
THE ATLANTIC.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK...BUT COULD REBOUND TO AROUND NORMAL LEVELS BY NEXT
WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AMIDST ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WITH VFR CONDS OVERNNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE COAST FROM GEORGIA. A COLD FRONT CROSSES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS BEST EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD HAVE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

NW FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED VFR.

VFR LIKELY TUE-WED NIGHT...WINDS GENERALLY NE 10 KTS OR LESS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF GEORGIA WILL STRENGTHEN AND LIFT
NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT AND MOVE OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE LOW
PASSES MIDDAY SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT. JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE. NWLY FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TO 15 KT WITH SCA GUSTS TO 20 KT
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND ALL OF MONDAY.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS...WITH SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE AT TIMES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO PULL AWAY AND THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING WELL TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MD BAY AND THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC
REMAIN ELEVATED...W/ POSITIVE ANOMALIES STILL RANGING BETWEEN 1.3
AND 1.5FT. THE LOWER BAY ZONES HAVE SEEN A SLIGHT DECREASE...CLOSER
TO A FOOT BUT STILL HEADING INTO THE HIGHER TIDE CYCLE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SUN MRNG. A NEW COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE WRN SHORE MD BAY COUNTIES...MINUS HARFORD. HAVRE DE GRACE
WOULD NEED A HIGHER ANOMALY VALUE THAN THE CURRENT/RECENT TRENDS
SUGGEST WILL BE THERE AT HIGH TIDE DURING THE POST-DAWN HRS SUN.

AFTER THE EARLY MRNG H.T. CYCLE...WINDS WILL SHIFT BRIEFLY NLY BUT
THEN SWITCH TO WLY DURING THE AFTN...RESIDUAL ANOMALY MAY REQUIRE
ANOTHER ROUND OF ADVISORIES BEFORE THE WINDS GO MODERATE NW SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MDZ011-014-
     017-018.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ054.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEE
NEAR TERM...LEE
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...BAJ/DFH/LEE
MARINE...BAJ/DFH/LEE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...GMS/LEE







000
FXUS61 KLWX 210121
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
921 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL MOVE
EAST INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY A RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC AT 01Z SHOWS RAIN SHIELD FROM THE LOW PRES
OVER SE US COAST APPROACHING TIDEWATER VA. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
HAS HIGH CLOUDS REACHING SOUTHERN MD FROM THE SAME SYSTEM. KEEPING
IN SLIGHT CHC POPS OVER SOUTHERN MD OVERNIGHT...AS THEY COULD GET
SOME SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN AS THE SYSTEM PULLS TO THE NORTHEAST.

ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT IN THE USUAL
SUSPECT VALLEY AND PIEDMONT LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE UNREMARKABLE
WEATHER WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S WEST OF I-95...LOWER 60S
EAST OF I-95 DUE TO THE BAY INFLUENCE ON S/SE FLOW...AND MID 60S
IN DC AND BALT METRO AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OFFSHORE AND THEN A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES DURING THE DAY AND CROSSES LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. FIVE PERCENT RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND FROM SPC ROUGHLY
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN TIMING DURING PEAK
HEATING. MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 80S (PERHAPS UPR 80S EAST OF I-95
IF MORNING CLOUDS CLEAR SOON ENOUGH) AND LIFTED INDICES FROM THE
GFS AROUND -2.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MONDAY WITH NWLY WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 MPH.
MAX TEMPS LOW TO MID 70S. CLOUDS CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY...SUNNY BY
THE AFTERNOON.

CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING
OVER THE AREA. MIN TEMPS COULD BE INTO THE MID 30S IN THE
ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS WHERE FROST IS POSSIBLE. MENTIONED THIS IN THE
HWO. OTHERWISE...MIN TEMPS LOW TO MID 40S...MID 50S NEAR SHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DEEP-LAYER RIDGING WILL ENTRENCH ITSELF OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES BEGINNING TUESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A
SEASONABLY COOL AND INITIALLY DRIER AIRMASS. BUT AS THE HIGH
MIGRATES TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK
AN ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS WHICH WILL LEAD TO GRADUALLY INCREASING
MOISTURE. THIS COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN BY THE
END OF THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS FROM
THE ATLANTIC.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK...BUT COULD REBOUND TO AROUND NORMAL LEVELS BY NEXT
WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AMIDST ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WITH VFR CONDS OVERNNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE COAST FROM GEORGIA. A COLD FRONT CROSSES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS BEST EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD HAVE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

NW FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED VFR.

VFR LIKELY TUE-WED NIGHT...WINDS GENERALLY NE 10 KTS OR LESS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF GEORGIA WILL STRENGTHEN AND LIFT
NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT AND MOVE OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE LOW
PASSES MIDDAY SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT. JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE. NWLY FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TO 15 KT WITH SCA GUSTS TO 20 KT
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND ALL OF MONDAY.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS...WITH SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE AT TIMES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO PULL AWAY AND THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING WELL TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MD BAY AND THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC
REMAIN ELEVATED...W/ POSITIVE ANOMALIES STILL RANGING BETWEEN 1.3
AND 1.5FT. THE LOWER BAY ZONES HAVE SEEN A SLIGHT DECREASE...CLOSER
TO A FOOT BUT STILL HEADING INTO THE HIGHER TIDE CYCLE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SUN MRNG. A NEW COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE WRN SHORE MD BAY COUNTIES...MINUS HARFORD. HAVRE DE GRACE
WOULD NEED A HIGHER ANOMALY VALUE THAN THE CURRENT/RECENT TRENDS
SUGGEST WILL BE THERE AT HIGH TIDE DURING THE POST-DAWN HRS SUN.

AFTER THE EARLY MRNG H.T. CYCLE...WINDS WILL SHIFT BRIEFLY NLY BUT
THEN SWITCH TO WLY DURING THE AFTN...RESIDUAL ANOMALY MAY REQUIRE
ANOTHER ROUND OF ADVISORIES BEFORE THE WINDS GO MODERATE NW SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MDZ011-014-
     017-018.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ054.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEE
NEAR TERM...LEE
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...BAJ/DFH/LEE
MARINE...BAJ/DFH/LEE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...GMS/LEE







000
FXUS61 KLWX 210121
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
921 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL MOVE
EAST INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY A RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC AT 01Z SHOWS RAIN SHIELD FROM THE LOW PRES
OVER SE US COAST APPROACHING TIDEWATER VA. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
HAS HIGH CLOUDS REACHING SOUTHERN MD FROM THE SAME SYSTEM. KEEPING
IN SLIGHT CHC POPS OVER SOUTHERN MD OVERNIGHT...AS THEY COULD GET
SOME SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN AS THE SYSTEM PULLS TO THE NORTHEAST.

ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT IN THE USUAL
SUSPECT VALLEY AND PIEDMONT LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE UNREMARKABLE
WEATHER WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S WEST OF I-95...LOWER 60S
EAST OF I-95 DUE TO THE BAY INFLUENCE ON S/SE FLOW...AND MID 60S
IN DC AND BALT METRO AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OFFSHORE AND THEN A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES DURING THE DAY AND CROSSES LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. FIVE PERCENT RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND FROM SPC ROUGHLY
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN TIMING DURING PEAK
HEATING. MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 80S (PERHAPS UPR 80S EAST OF I-95
IF MORNING CLOUDS CLEAR SOON ENOUGH) AND LIFTED INDICES FROM THE
GFS AROUND -2.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MONDAY WITH NWLY WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 MPH.
MAX TEMPS LOW TO MID 70S. CLOUDS CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY...SUNNY BY
THE AFTERNOON.

CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING
OVER THE AREA. MIN TEMPS COULD BE INTO THE MID 30S IN THE
ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS WHERE FROST IS POSSIBLE. MENTIONED THIS IN THE
HWO. OTHERWISE...MIN TEMPS LOW TO MID 40S...MID 50S NEAR SHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DEEP-LAYER RIDGING WILL ENTRENCH ITSELF OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES BEGINNING TUESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A
SEASONABLY COOL AND INITIALLY DRIER AIRMASS. BUT AS THE HIGH
MIGRATES TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK
AN ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS WHICH WILL LEAD TO GRADUALLY INCREASING
MOISTURE. THIS COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN BY THE
END OF THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS FROM
THE ATLANTIC.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK...BUT COULD REBOUND TO AROUND NORMAL LEVELS BY NEXT
WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AMIDST ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WITH VFR CONDS OVERNNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE COAST FROM GEORGIA. A COLD FRONT CROSSES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS BEST EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD HAVE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

NW FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED VFR.

VFR LIKELY TUE-WED NIGHT...WINDS GENERALLY NE 10 KTS OR LESS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF GEORGIA WILL STRENGTHEN AND LIFT
NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT AND MOVE OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE LOW
PASSES MIDDAY SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT. JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE. NWLY FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TO 15 KT WITH SCA GUSTS TO 20 KT
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND ALL OF MONDAY.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS...WITH SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE AT TIMES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO PULL AWAY AND THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING WELL TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MD BAY AND THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC
REMAIN ELEVATED...W/ POSITIVE ANOMALIES STILL RANGING BETWEEN 1.3
AND 1.5FT. THE LOWER BAY ZONES HAVE SEEN A SLIGHT DECREASE...CLOSER
TO A FOOT BUT STILL HEADING INTO THE HIGHER TIDE CYCLE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SUN MRNG. A NEW COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE WRN SHORE MD BAY COUNTIES...MINUS HARFORD. HAVRE DE GRACE
WOULD NEED A HIGHER ANOMALY VALUE THAN THE CURRENT/RECENT TRENDS
SUGGEST WILL BE THERE AT HIGH TIDE DURING THE POST-DAWN HRS SUN.

AFTER THE EARLY MRNG H.T. CYCLE...WINDS WILL SHIFT BRIEFLY NLY BUT
THEN SWITCH TO WLY DURING THE AFTN...RESIDUAL ANOMALY MAY REQUIRE
ANOTHER ROUND OF ADVISORIES BEFORE THE WINDS GO MODERATE NW SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MDZ011-014-
     017-018.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ054.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEE
NEAR TERM...LEE
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...BAJ/DFH/LEE
MARINE...BAJ/DFH/LEE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...GMS/LEE







000
FXUS61 KLWX 210121
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
921 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL MOVE
EAST INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY A RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC AT 01Z SHOWS RAIN SHIELD FROM THE LOW PRES
OVER SE US COAST APPROACHING TIDEWATER VA. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
HAS HIGH CLOUDS REACHING SOUTHERN MD FROM THE SAME SYSTEM. KEEPING
IN SLIGHT CHC POPS OVER SOUTHERN MD OVERNIGHT...AS THEY COULD GET
SOME SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN AS THE SYSTEM PULLS TO THE NORTHEAST.

ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT IN THE USUAL
SUSPECT VALLEY AND PIEDMONT LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE UNREMARKABLE
WEATHER WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S WEST OF I-95...LOWER 60S
EAST OF I-95 DUE TO THE BAY INFLUENCE ON S/SE FLOW...AND MID 60S
IN DC AND BALT METRO AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OFFSHORE AND THEN A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES DURING THE DAY AND CROSSES LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. FIVE PERCENT RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND FROM SPC ROUGHLY
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN TIMING DURING PEAK
HEATING. MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 80S (PERHAPS UPR 80S EAST OF I-95
IF MORNING CLOUDS CLEAR SOON ENOUGH) AND LIFTED INDICES FROM THE
GFS AROUND -2.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MONDAY WITH NWLY WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 MPH.
MAX TEMPS LOW TO MID 70S. CLOUDS CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY...SUNNY BY
THE AFTERNOON.

CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING
OVER THE AREA. MIN TEMPS COULD BE INTO THE MID 30S IN THE
ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS WHERE FROST IS POSSIBLE. MENTIONED THIS IN THE
HWO. OTHERWISE...MIN TEMPS LOW TO MID 40S...MID 50S NEAR SHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DEEP-LAYER RIDGING WILL ENTRENCH ITSELF OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES BEGINNING TUESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A
SEASONABLY COOL AND INITIALLY DRIER AIRMASS. BUT AS THE HIGH
MIGRATES TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK
AN ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS WHICH WILL LEAD TO GRADUALLY INCREASING
MOISTURE. THIS COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN BY THE
END OF THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS FROM
THE ATLANTIC.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK...BUT COULD REBOUND TO AROUND NORMAL LEVELS BY NEXT
WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AMIDST ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WITH VFR CONDS OVERNNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE COAST FROM GEORGIA. A COLD FRONT CROSSES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS BEST EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD HAVE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

NW FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED VFR.

VFR LIKELY TUE-WED NIGHT...WINDS GENERALLY NE 10 KTS OR LESS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF GEORGIA WILL STRENGTHEN AND LIFT
NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT AND MOVE OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE LOW
PASSES MIDDAY SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT. JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE. NWLY FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TO 15 KT WITH SCA GUSTS TO 20 KT
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND ALL OF MONDAY.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS...WITH SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE AT TIMES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO PULL AWAY AND THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING WELL TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MD BAY AND THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC
REMAIN ELEVATED...W/ POSITIVE ANOMALIES STILL RANGING BETWEEN 1.3
AND 1.5FT. THE LOWER BAY ZONES HAVE SEEN A SLIGHT DECREASE...CLOSER
TO A FOOT BUT STILL HEADING INTO THE HIGHER TIDE CYCLE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SUN MRNG. A NEW COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE WRN SHORE MD BAY COUNTIES...MINUS HARFORD. HAVRE DE GRACE
WOULD NEED A HIGHER ANOMALY VALUE THAN THE CURRENT/RECENT TRENDS
SUGGEST WILL BE THERE AT HIGH TIDE DURING THE POST-DAWN HRS SUN.

AFTER THE EARLY MRNG H.T. CYCLE...WINDS WILL SHIFT BRIEFLY NLY BUT
THEN SWITCH TO WLY DURING THE AFTN...RESIDUAL ANOMALY MAY REQUIRE
ANOTHER ROUND OF ADVISORIES BEFORE THE WINDS GO MODERATE NW SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MDZ011-014-
     017-018.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ054.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEE
NEAR TERM...LEE
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...BAJ/DFH/LEE
MARINE...BAJ/DFH/LEE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...GMS/LEE







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210052
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
852 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LIFTS NORTH ALONG...THEN
OFF...THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE...AND COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS...FOR MOST OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST RIDGES SWWD INTO
THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS RESULTING IN A VERY NICE
EARLY FALL DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ALONG AS WEST OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY. TEMPS ARE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT JUST OFF THE SE COAST
IS GENERATING CONSIDERABLE CLDS ACRS THE CNTRL/SRN DELMARVA...SE
VA AND NE NC. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ALSO MOVED NWWD FROM THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND INTO OUR NE NC COUNTIES. THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE INTO DRIER AIR INLAND. THE LOW WILL MOVE NE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND BE EAST OF DELMARVA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE SIDED CLOSED TO THE 12Z GFS WITH REGARD TO WESTERN
EXTENT OF PRECIP AND SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS...AS NAM APPEARS TOO
AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING BOTH CLOUDS AND PRECIP NWWD. POP/WEATHER
FORECAST SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE...ALTHOUGH CHC POPS PUSHED
SOMEWHAT WWD INTO DELMARVA/SE VA AND A GOOD PART OF NE NC. LIKELY
POPS FORECAST BY MET GUIDANCE SEEM TOO HIGH...AND HAVE GONE CLOSER
TO...BUT STILL A BIT BELOW...MAV GUIDANCE. ANY PRECIP WITH THE
OFFSHORE LOW WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
SUNDAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

MIN TEMPS TONIGHT CLOSE TO OR SLIGHT ABOVE THIS MORNINGS TEMPS
AWAY FROM THE BAY/OCEAN...WITH MANY AREAS AT OR A FEW DEGREES
BELOW 60. CLOSER TO THE BAY/OCEAN...CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIP SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPED LAST NIGHT...AND
EXPECT IT AGAIN TONIGHT IN AREAS AWAY FROM THE WATER.

THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT SEVERAL WILL BE ON SUNDAY...WITH MANY
AREAS SEEING THE UPPER 80S...AND ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO MAKE INTO
THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
EVENING. MODELS INDICATE LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD
OF FRONT...SO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED. HAVE
INCREASED POPS SUNDAY EVENING IN THE PIEDMONT AREA TO 30%...MAINLY
IN DEFERENCE TO NAM12 PRECIP DEPICTION. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A
SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS SUNDAY EVENING...WITH SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRONT WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST...BUT ANY PRECIP BEYOND 04Z EXPECTED TO
BE WIDELY SCATTERED. AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE
FA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE
REGION WITH MUCH DRIER AIR...AND MAX TEMPS 75-80 DEGREES.

THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50. A
SUNNY PLEASANT DAY EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE OH VALLEY/NE
STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE
OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO
PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL STICK TO 20% POPS FOR
NOW. IN GENERAL 12Z GFS KEEPS ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE ECMWF
BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED. HI TEMPS WILL AVG IN THE
MID TO UPR 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 50S TO LWR 60S OVR
MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. WINDS TURN
TO NORTHERLY ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE
COAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING MVFR STRATUS TO ALL BUT RIC AND
SOME IFR IS EXPECTED AT SBY AND ECG. THE WEATHER IMPROVES BY LATE
MORNING TO MIDDAY SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SLGT TO LOW CHCS FOR
SHOWERS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
SLGT CHCS FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
8 PM UPDATE...SEAS AND WAVES AT CAPE CHARLES BUOY AND FIRST
LANDING RESPECTIVELY ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH SIGN OF SUBSIDING.
MODELS ARE INSISTENT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS SOON AND THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN WAVES DROPPING BELOW SCA IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. THE
SCA EXPIRATION OF 10 PM SEEMED TOO SOON FOR THAT AND ADJUSTED
THAT TO 1 AM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SFC HI PRES STRETCHES DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC
CST TNGT AS LO PRES PASSES OFFSHORE. AS FAR AS HEADLINES...SCA OVR
THE MOUTH OF THE BAY WILL CONTINUE THRU 10 PM DUE TO 4 FT WAVES.
HIGH SEAS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVR THE CSTL WTRS DUE TO PROLONGED
ERLY/NERLY FETCH. WILL CONTINUE HEADLINES THERE INTO
TOMORO...ENDING THEM FM N TO S THRU THE DAY AS FLOW BCMS NLY. A
COLD FRNT CROSSES THE WTRS LATE SUN/ERLY MON...WITH CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO STAY SUB-SCA POST FRNTAL DUE TO A WEAK GRADIENT AND
CAA. SECONDARY SURGE AND HI PRES BLDG N OF THE AREA MON NGT MAY
BRING WINDS JUST SHY OF 20 KT OVR THE BAY...BUT WILL CAP AT AROUND
15 KT FOR NOW. FOR TUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER
PROLONGED PERIOD OF NE FLOW WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED WAVES AND SEAS
AND SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/WRS
NEAR TERM...WRS
SHORT TERM...WRS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAS/LSA







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210052
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
852 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LIFTS NORTH ALONG...THEN
OFF...THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE...AND COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS...FOR MOST OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST RIDGES SWWD INTO
THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS RESULTING IN A VERY NICE
EARLY FALL DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ALONG AS WEST OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY. TEMPS ARE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT JUST OFF THE SE COAST
IS GENERATING CONSIDERABLE CLDS ACRS THE CNTRL/SRN DELMARVA...SE
VA AND NE NC. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ALSO MOVED NWWD FROM THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND INTO OUR NE NC COUNTIES. THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE INTO DRIER AIR INLAND. THE LOW WILL MOVE NE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND BE EAST OF DELMARVA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE SIDED CLOSED TO THE 12Z GFS WITH REGARD TO WESTERN
EXTENT OF PRECIP AND SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS...AS NAM APPEARS TOO
AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING BOTH CLOUDS AND PRECIP NWWD. POP/WEATHER
FORECAST SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE...ALTHOUGH CHC POPS PUSHED
SOMEWHAT WWD INTO DELMARVA/SE VA AND A GOOD PART OF NE NC. LIKELY
POPS FORECAST BY MET GUIDANCE SEEM TOO HIGH...AND HAVE GONE CLOSER
TO...BUT STILL A BIT BELOW...MAV GUIDANCE. ANY PRECIP WITH THE
OFFSHORE LOW WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
SUNDAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

MIN TEMPS TONIGHT CLOSE TO OR SLIGHT ABOVE THIS MORNINGS TEMPS
AWAY FROM THE BAY/OCEAN...WITH MANY AREAS AT OR A FEW DEGREES
BELOW 60. CLOSER TO THE BAY/OCEAN...CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIP SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPED LAST NIGHT...AND
EXPECT IT AGAIN TONIGHT IN AREAS AWAY FROM THE WATER.

THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT SEVERAL WILL BE ON SUNDAY...WITH MANY
AREAS SEEING THE UPPER 80S...AND ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO MAKE INTO
THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
EVENING. MODELS INDICATE LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD
OF FRONT...SO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED. HAVE
INCREASED POPS SUNDAY EVENING IN THE PIEDMONT AREA TO 30%...MAINLY
IN DEFERENCE TO NAM12 PRECIP DEPICTION. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A
SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS SUNDAY EVENING...WITH SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRONT WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST...BUT ANY PRECIP BEYOND 04Z EXPECTED TO
BE WIDELY SCATTERED. AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE
FA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE
REGION WITH MUCH DRIER AIR...AND MAX TEMPS 75-80 DEGREES.

THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50. A
SUNNY PLEASANT DAY EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE OH VALLEY/NE
STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE
OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO
PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL STICK TO 20% POPS FOR
NOW. IN GENERAL 12Z GFS KEEPS ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE ECMWF
BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED. HI TEMPS WILL AVG IN THE
MID TO UPR 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 50S TO LWR 60S OVR
MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. WINDS TURN
TO NORTHERLY ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE
COAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING MVFR STRATUS TO ALL BUT RIC AND
SOME IFR IS EXPECTED AT SBY AND ECG. THE WEATHER IMPROVES BY LATE
MORNING TO MIDDAY SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SLGT TO LOW CHCS FOR
SHOWERS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
SLGT CHCS FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
8 PM UPDATE...SEAS AND WAVES AT CAPE CHARLES BUOY AND FIRST
LANDING RESPECTIVELY ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH SIGN OF SUBSIDING.
MODELS ARE INSISTENT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS SOON AND THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN WAVES DROPPING BELOW SCA IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. THE
SCA EXPIRATION OF 10 PM SEEMED TOO SOON FOR THAT AND ADJUSTED
THAT TO 1 AM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SFC HI PRES STRETCHES DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC
CST TNGT AS LO PRES PASSES OFFSHORE. AS FAR AS HEADLINES...SCA OVR
THE MOUTH OF THE BAY WILL CONTINUE THRU 10 PM DUE TO 4 FT WAVES.
HIGH SEAS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVR THE CSTL WTRS DUE TO PROLONGED
ERLY/NERLY FETCH. WILL CONTINUE HEADLINES THERE INTO
TOMORO...ENDING THEM FM N TO S THRU THE DAY AS FLOW BCMS NLY. A
COLD FRNT CROSSES THE WTRS LATE SUN/ERLY MON...WITH CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO STAY SUB-SCA POST FRNTAL DUE TO A WEAK GRADIENT AND
CAA. SECONDARY SURGE AND HI PRES BLDG N OF THE AREA MON NGT MAY
BRING WINDS JUST SHY OF 20 KT OVR THE BAY...BUT WILL CAP AT AROUND
15 KT FOR NOW. FOR TUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER
PROLONGED PERIOD OF NE FLOW WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED WAVES AND SEAS
AND SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/WRS
NEAR TERM...WRS
SHORT TERM...WRS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAS/LSA







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210052
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
852 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LIFTS NORTH ALONG...THEN
OFF...THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE...AND COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS...FOR MOST OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST RIDGES SWWD INTO
THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS RESULTING IN A VERY NICE
EARLY FALL DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ALONG AS WEST OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY. TEMPS ARE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT JUST OFF THE SE COAST
IS GENERATING CONSIDERABLE CLDS ACRS THE CNTRL/SRN DELMARVA...SE
VA AND NE NC. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ALSO MOVED NWWD FROM THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND INTO OUR NE NC COUNTIES. THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE INTO DRIER AIR INLAND. THE LOW WILL MOVE NE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND BE EAST OF DELMARVA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE SIDED CLOSED TO THE 12Z GFS WITH REGARD TO WESTERN
EXTENT OF PRECIP AND SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS...AS NAM APPEARS TOO
AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING BOTH CLOUDS AND PRECIP NWWD. POP/WEATHER
FORECAST SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE...ALTHOUGH CHC POPS PUSHED
SOMEWHAT WWD INTO DELMARVA/SE VA AND A GOOD PART OF NE NC. LIKELY
POPS FORECAST BY MET GUIDANCE SEEM TOO HIGH...AND HAVE GONE CLOSER
TO...BUT STILL A BIT BELOW...MAV GUIDANCE. ANY PRECIP WITH THE
OFFSHORE LOW WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
SUNDAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

MIN TEMPS TONIGHT CLOSE TO OR SLIGHT ABOVE THIS MORNINGS TEMPS
AWAY FROM THE BAY/OCEAN...WITH MANY AREAS AT OR A FEW DEGREES
BELOW 60. CLOSER TO THE BAY/OCEAN...CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIP SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPED LAST NIGHT...AND
EXPECT IT AGAIN TONIGHT IN AREAS AWAY FROM THE WATER.

THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT SEVERAL WILL BE ON SUNDAY...WITH MANY
AREAS SEEING THE UPPER 80S...AND ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO MAKE INTO
THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
EVENING. MODELS INDICATE LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD
OF FRONT...SO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED. HAVE
INCREASED POPS SUNDAY EVENING IN THE PIEDMONT AREA TO 30%...MAINLY
IN DEFERENCE TO NAM12 PRECIP DEPICTION. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A
SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS SUNDAY EVENING...WITH SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRONT WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST...BUT ANY PRECIP BEYOND 04Z EXPECTED TO
BE WIDELY SCATTERED. AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE
FA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE
REGION WITH MUCH DRIER AIR...AND MAX TEMPS 75-80 DEGREES.

THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50. A
SUNNY PLEASANT DAY EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE OH VALLEY/NE
STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE
OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO
PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL STICK TO 20% POPS FOR
NOW. IN GENERAL 12Z GFS KEEPS ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE ECMWF
BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED. HI TEMPS WILL AVG IN THE
MID TO UPR 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 50S TO LWR 60S OVR
MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. WINDS TURN
TO NORTHERLY ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE
COAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING MVFR STRATUS TO ALL BUT RIC AND
SOME IFR IS EXPECTED AT SBY AND ECG. THE WEATHER IMPROVES BY LATE
MORNING TO MIDDAY SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SLGT TO LOW CHCS FOR
SHOWERS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
SLGT CHCS FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
8 PM UPDATE...SEAS AND WAVES AT CAPE CHARLES BUOY AND FIRST
LANDING RESPECTIVELY ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH SIGN OF SUBSIDING.
MODELS ARE INSISTENT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS SOON AND THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN WAVES DROPPING BELOW SCA IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. THE
SCA EXPIRATION OF 10 PM SEEMED TOO SOON FOR THAT AND ADJUSTED
THAT TO 1 AM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SFC HI PRES STRETCHES DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC
CST TNGT AS LO PRES PASSES OFFSHORE. AS FAR AS HEADLINES...SCA OVR
THE MOUTH OF THE BAY WILL CONTINUE THRU 10 PM DUE TO 4 FT WAVES.
HIGH SEAS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVR THE CSTL WTRS DUE TO PROLONGED
ERLY/NERLY FETCH. WILL CONTINUE HEADLINES THERE INTO
TOMORO...ENDING THEM FM N TO S THRU THE DAY AS FLOW BCMS NLY. A
COLD FRNT CROSSES THE WTRS LATE SUN/ERLY MON...WITH CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO STAY SUB-SCA POST FRNTAL DUE TO A WEAK GRADIENT AND
CAA. SECONDARY SURGE AND HI PRES BLDG N OF THE AREA MON NGT MAY
BRING WINDS JUST SHY OF 20 KT OVR THE BAY...BUT WILL CAP AT AROUND
15 KT FOR NOW. FOR TUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER
PROLONGED PERIOD OF NE FLOW WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED WAVES AND SEAS
AND SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/WRS
NEAR TERM...WRS
SHORT TERM...WRS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAS/LSA







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210052
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
852 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LIFTS NORTH ALONG...THEN
OFF...THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE...AND COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS...FOR MOST OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST RIDGES SWWD INTO
THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS RESULTING IN A VERY NICE
EARLY FALL DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ALONG AS WEST OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY. TEMPS ARE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT JUST OFF THE SE COAST
IS GENERATING CONSIDERABLE CLDS ACRS THE CNTRL/SRN DELMARVA...SE
VA AND NE NC. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ALSO MOVED NWWD FROM THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND INTO OUR NE NC COUNTIES. THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE INTO DRIER AIR INLAND. THE LOW WILL MOVE NE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND BE EAST OF DELMARVA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE SIDED CLOSED TO THE 12Z GFS WITH REGARD TO WESTERN
EXTENT OF PRECIP AND SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS...AS NAM APPEARS TOO
AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING BOTH CLOUDS AND PRECIP NWWD. POP/WEATHER
FORECAST SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE...ALTHOUGH CHC POPS PUSHED
SOMEWHAT WWD INTO DELMARVA/SE VA AND A GOOD PART OF NE NC. LIKELY
POPS FORECAST BY MET GUIDANCE SEEM TOO HIGH...AND HAVE GONE CLOSER
TO...BUT STILL A BIT BELOW...MAV GUIDANCE. ANY PRECIP WITH THE
OFFSHORE LOW WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
SUNDAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

MIN TEMPS TONIGHT CLOSE TO OR SLIGHT ABOVE THIS MORNINGS TEMPS
AWAY FROM THE BAY/OCEAN...WITH MANY AREAS AT OR A FEW DEGREES
BELOW 60. CLOSER TO THE BAY/OCEAN...CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIP SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPED LAST NIGHT...AND
EXPECT IT AGAIN TONIGHT IN AREAS AWAY FROM THE WATER.

THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT SEVERAL WILL BE ON SUNDAY...WITH MANY
AREAS SEEING THE UPPER 80S...AND ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO MAKE INTO
THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
EVENING. MODELS INDICATE LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD
OF FRONT...SO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED. HAVE
INCREASED POPS SUNDAY EVENING IN THE PIEDMONT AREA TO 30%...MAINLY
IN DEFERENCE TO NAM12 PRECIP DEPICTION. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A
SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS SUNDAY EVENING...WITH SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRONT WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST...BUT ANY PRECIP BEYOND 04Z EXPECTED TO
BE WIDELY SCATTERED. AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE
FA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE
REGION WITH MUCH DRIER AIR...AND MAX TEMPS 75-80 DEGREES.

THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50. A
SUNNY PLEASANT DAY EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE OH VALLEY/NE
STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE
OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO
PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL STICK TO 20% POPS FOR
NOW. IN GENERAL 12Z GFS KEEPS ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE ECMWF
BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED. HI TEMPS WILL AVG IN THE
MID TO UPR 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 50S TO LWR 60S OVR
MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. WINDS TURN
TO NORTHERLY ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE
COAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING MVFR STRATUS TO ALL BUT RIC AND
SOME IFR IS EXPECTED AT SBY AND ECG. THE WEATHER IMPROVES BY LATE
MORNING TO MIDDAY SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SLGT TO LOW CHCS FOR
SHOWERS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
SLGT CHCS FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
8 PM UPDATE...SEAS AND WAVES AT CAPE CHARLES BUOY AND FIRST
LANDING RESPECTIVELY ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH SIGN OF SUBSIDING.
MODELS ARE INSISTENT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS SOON AND THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN WAVES DROPPING BELOW SCA IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. THE
SCA EXPIRATION OF 10 PM SEEMED TOO SOON FOR THAT AND ADJUSTED
THAT TO 1 AM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SFC HI PRES STRETCHES DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC
CST TNGT AS LO PRES PASSES OFFSHORE. AS FAR AS HEADLINES...SCA OVR
THE MOUTH OF THE BAY WILL CONTINUE THRU 10 PM DUE TO 4 FT WAVES.
HIGH SEAS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVR THE CSTL WTRS DUE TO PROLONGED
ERLY/NERLY FETCH. WILL CONTINUE HEADLINES THERE INTO
TOMORO...ENDING THEM FM N TO S THRU THE DAY AS FLOW BCMS NLY. A
COLD FRNT CROSSES THE WTRS LATE SUN/ERLY MON...WITH CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO STAY SUB-SCA POST FRNTAL DUE TO A WEAK GRADIENT AND
CAA. SECONDARY SURGE AND HI PRES BLDG N OF THE AREA MON NGT MAY
BRING WINDS JUST SHY OF 20 KT OVR THE BAY...BUT WILL CAP AT AROUND
15 KT FOR NOW. FOR TUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER
PROLONGED PERIOD OF NE FLOW WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED WAVES AND SEAS
AND SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/WRS
NEAR TERM...WRS
SHORT TERM...WRS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAS/LSA







000
FXUS61 KRNK 202321
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
721 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LIFTS NORTH TO JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR
REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN. MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL COVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE UPPER TROUGH OVR THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DEEPEN AND TRAVEL
EAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST
TONIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE OF THE GEORGIA COAST LIFTS NORTHWARD IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
THE SOUTHEAST LOW CENTER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. ADDED THE MENTION
OF PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE
ADJMAVBC WITH READINGS FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE COOLER VALLEYS TO
NEAR 60 IN THE PIEDMONT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...TRAVEL ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY EVENING AND EXIT
THE PIEDMONT SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE STRONG MIDLEVEL FLOW AT 700 MB
AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPEN AND SOME INSTABILITY...SPC IN THE DAY
2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS ALLOWED FOR A 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN
THREAT FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LEANED HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY CLOSE
TO ADJMETBC WITH VALUES FROM THE MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
MID 80S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES
SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT SUNDAY EVENING...AND WILL CONTINUE RAPIDLY
SOUTHEAST...EXITING THE SOUTHSIDE BY AROUND 6 AM MONDAY MORNING. THE
FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT A NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT THAT WILL USHER
IN COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN AIR...DEFINITELY A SIGNAL THAT AUTUMN
IS COMING AS WE APPROACH THE EQUINOX. DRIER AIR WILL CAUSE A RAPID
REDUCTION IN SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH ONLY
A FEW SPRINKLES REMAINING ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST FLOW UPSLOPE REGIONS
IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA BY DAWN.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY ON A 4MB TO 5MB
PRESSURE GRADIENT...RESULTING IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS REACHING 20
MPH TO OCCASIONALLY 25 MPH AT TIMES ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGES. GUSTS
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WILL BE LOWER...GENERALLY AROUND 15 MPH. WIND
SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH DURING EARLY EVENING AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE SINKS SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE OF OUR WEATHER
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...GRADUALLY PUSHING TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TO
BRING OUR WINDS INCREASINGLY NORTHEASTERLY. WITH CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO 40S...POSSIBLY INTO THE
UPPER 30S IN A FEW OF THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A 1032MB SURFACE HIGH THAT
STARTS IN SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH
OVER THE NE STATES BY SATURDAY. THE RESULT OF THIS WILL BE AN
EASTERLY WEDGE FLOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT OF A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW BY THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF TO OUR WEST...WHICH WILL IMPACT HOW MUCH MOISTURE CAN GET
PULLED INTO THE REGION. AT THIS POINT TRENDED TOWARD HPC AND THE
DRIER GFS SOLUTIONS AND KEPT JUST LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ANY
PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL LIKELY BE JUST PATCHY DRIZZLE WITH LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATION.

WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS AS THE MODELS ARE TYPICALLY TOO
WARM WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW. EXPECT SURFACE HIGHS OF MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO LOW 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 720 PM EDT SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS REPORTED AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART OF
THE NIGHT. FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS...IMPACTING VISIBILITIES AT KLWB AND KBCB. LIFR
VISIBILITIES EXPECTED AT KLWB WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KBCB.
AFTER AN ENTIRE DAY OF DRYING AND SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS
COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY...CHANCES FOR FOG AT KDAN AND
KLYH ARE LOWER...AND FOG WAS NOT INCLUDED AT THESE SITES.

FOG WILL DISSIPATE SUNDAY MORNING AFTER DAYBREAK....BUT MOISTURE
ADVANCING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...WITH LOW VFR CIGS BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING TO THE
MOUNTAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE WITH THE
APPROACHING FRONT...AND GUSTS 20-25KTS ARE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DURING THE
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL BRING
DRIER AIR TO THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK PROMOTING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS. RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AT NIGHT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...PH




000
FXUS61 KRNK 202321
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
721 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LIFTS NORTH TO JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR
REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN. MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL COVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE UPPER TROUGH OVR THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DEEPEN AND TRAVEL
EAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST
TONIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE OF THE GEORGIA COAST LIFTS NORTHWARD IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
THE SOUTHEAST LOW CENTER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. ADDED THE MENTION
OF PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE
ADJMAVBC WITH READINGS FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE COOLER VALLEYS TO
NEAR 60 IN THE PIEDMONT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...TRAVEL ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY EVENING AND EXIT
THE PIEDMONT SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE STRONG MIDLEVEL FLOW AT 700 MB
AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPEN AND SOME INSTABILITY...SPC IN THE DAY
2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS ALLOWED FOR A 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN
THREAT FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LEANED HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY CLOSE
TO ADJMETBC WITH VALUES FROM THE MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
MID 80S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES
SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT SUNDAY EVENING...AND WILL CONTINUE RAPIDLY
SOUTHEAST...EXITING THE SOUTHSIDE BY AROUND 6 AM MONDAY MORNING. THE
FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT A NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT THAT WILL USHER
IN COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN AIR...DEFINITELY A SIGNAL THAT AUTUMN
IS COMING AS WE APPROACH THE EQUINOX. DRIER AIR WILL CAUSE A RAPID
REDUCTION IN SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH ONLY
A FEW SPRINKLES REMAINING ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST FLOW UPSLOPE REGIONS
IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA BY DAWN.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY ON A 4MB TO 5MB
PRESSURE GRADIENT...RESULTING IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS REACHING 20
MPH TO OCCASIONALLY 25 MPH AT TIMES ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGES. GUSTS
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WILL BE LOWER...GENERALLY AROUND 15 MPH. WIND
SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH DURING EARLY EVENING AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE SINKS SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE OF OUR WEATHER
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...GRADUALLY PUSHING TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TO
BRING OUR WINDS INCREASINGLY NORTHEASTERLY. WITH CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO 40S...POSSIBLY INTO THE
UPPER 30S IN A FEW OF THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A 1032MB SURFACE HIGH THAT
STARTS IN SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH
OVER THE NE STATES BY SATURDAY. THE RESULT OF THIS WILL BE AN
EASTERLY WEDGE FLOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT OF A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW BY THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF TO OUR WEST...WHICH WILL IMPACT HOW MUCH MOISTURE CAN GET
PULLED INTO THE REGION. AT THIS POINT TRENDED TOWARD HPC AND THE
DRIER GFS SOLUTIONS AND KEPT JUST LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ANY
PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL LIKELY BE JUST PATCHY DRIZZLE WITH LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATION.

WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS AS THE MODELS ARE TYPICALLY TOO
WARM WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW. EXPECT SURFACE HIGHS OF MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO LOW 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 720 PM EDT SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS REPORTED AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART OF
THE NIGHT. FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS...IMPACTING VISIBILITIES AT KLWB AND KBCB. LIFR
VISIBILITIES EXPECTED AT KLWB WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KBCB.
AFTER AN ENTIRE DAY OF DRYING AND SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS
COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY...CHANCES FOR FOG AT KDAN AND
KLYH ARE LOWER...AND FOG WAS NOT INCLUDED AT THESE SITES.

FOG WILL DISSIPATE SUNDAY MORNING AFTER DAYBREAK....BUT MOISTURE
ADVANCING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...WITH LOW VFR CIGS BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING TO THE
MOUNTAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE WITH THE
APPROACHING FRONT...AND GUSTS 20-25KTS ARE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DURING THE
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL BRING
DRIER AIR TO THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK PROMOTING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS. RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AT NIGHT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...PH



000
FXUS61 KLWX 202148 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
548 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO TONIGHT. A SURFACE LOW OFF THE
GEORGIA COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST BY CAPE HATTERAS SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE IN MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HEADLINE UPDATE. SEE TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING SECTION. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE MD BAY AND TIDAL POTOMAC RVR FROM SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION...
AS OF 18Z...SFC RIDGE IS DRAPED WSW TO ENE ACROSS THE CWA WITH
THE AXIS OVER DC. AN ASSOCIATED ONSHORE FLOW (WITH A BIT OF A BAY
BREEZE) WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EVENING. A TROUGH IN ADVANCE OF A LOW
OFF THE GEORGIA COAST EXTENDS NORTHEAST OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC
COAST WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRESENT. THIS
ACTIVITY COULD APPROACH MD WATERS...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LOWER
ST MARYS AND EAST. LOW/MID CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE IN FROM THE
EAST...PERHAPS REACHING AS FAR WEST AS I-95.

OTHERWISE...CLEAR TONIGHT WITH VALLEY AND PIEDMONT FOG. GUIDANCE
IS SUGGESTING SOME FOG FOR THE METRO AREAS TOO...BUT THE
CLOUD/CLEAR LINE WILL DETERMINE THAT. MIN TEMPS MID TO UPR 50S
WEST OF BALT-WASH...LOW TO MID 60S FOR THE COASTAL LOWLANDS...NEAR
70F URBAN AND NEAR SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OFFSHORE AND THEN A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES DURING THE DAY AND CROSSES LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. FIVE PERCENT RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND FROM SPC ROUGHLY
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN TIMING DURING PEAK
HEATING. MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 80S (PERHAPS UPR 80S EAST OF I-95
IF MORNING CLOUDS CLEAR SOON ENOUGH) AND LIFTED INDICES FROM THE
GFS AROUND -2.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MONDAY WITH NWLY WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 MPH.
MAX TEMPS LOW TO MID 70S. CLOUDS CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY...SUNNY BY
THE AFTERNOON.

CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING
OVER THE AREA. MIN TEMPS COULD BE INTO THE MID 30S IN THE
ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS WHERE FROST IS POSSIBLE. MENTIONED THIS IN THE
HWO. OTHERWISE...MIN TEMPS LOW TO MID 40S...MID 50S NEAR SHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DEEP-LAYER RIDGING WILL ENTRENCH ITSELF OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES BEGINNING TUESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A
SEASONABLY COOL AND INITIALLY DRIER AIRMASS. BUT AS THE HIGH
MIGRATES TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK
AN ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS WHICH WILL LEAD TO GRADUALLY INCREASING
MOISTURE. THIS COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN BY THE
END OF THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS FROM
THE ATLANTIC.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK...BUT COULD REBOUND TO AROUND NORMAL LEVELS BY NEXT
WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AMIDST ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE COAST FROM GEORGIA. A COLD FRONT CROSSES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS BEST EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD HAVE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

NW FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...COULD GUST AROUND 20 KT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED VFR.

VFR LIKELY TUE-WED NIGHT...WINDS GENERALLY NE 10 KTS OR LESS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW FROM SFC HIGH RIDGE OVER THE AREA WITH A BAY
BREEZE THAT WILL ENDS THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF
GEORGIA WILL STRENGTHEN AND LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLING
COAST TONIGHT AND MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY. THE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE LOW PASSES MIDDAY SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT. JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE. NWLY FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TO 15 KT OR SO. SCA GUSTS TO 20 KT
CURRENTLY LOOK TO WAIT UNTIL MONDAY MORNING...THOUGH THEY COULD
ARRIVE WITH THE COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. LATER SHIFTS WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THAT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS...WITH SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE AT TIMES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO PULL AWAY AND THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING WELL TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTIES
UNTIL 7 PM. WILL MISS THE MARK AT BALTIMORE/FT MCHENRY...THOUGH
THEIR LEVELS ARE ELEVATED WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE EVE`S HIGH
TIDE. DEPARTURES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...UP TO 1.5 FT ABOVE
NORMAL...SO MORE COUNTIES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE IN THE ADVISORY
FOR THE HIGH TIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DCZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ014.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ054.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...BAJ
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...BAJ/DFH
MARINE...BAJ/DFH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...GMS/BAJ









000
FXUS61 KLWX 202148 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
548 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO TONIGHT. A SURFACE LOW OFF THE
GEORGIA COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST BY CAPE HATTERAS SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE IN MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HEADLINE UPDATE. SEE TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING SECTION. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE MD BAY AND TIDAL POTOMAC RVR FROM SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION...
AS OF 18Z...SFC RIDGE IS DRAPED WSW TO ENE ACROSS THE CWA WITH
THE AXIS OVER DC. AN ASSOCIATED ONSHORE FLOW (WITH A BIT OF A BAY
BREEZE) WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EVENING. A TROUGH IN ADVANCE OF A LOW
OFF THE GEORGIA COAST EXTENDS NORTHEAST OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC
COAST WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRESENT. THIS
ACTIVITY COULD APPROACH MD WATERS...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LOWER
ST MARYS AND EAST. LOW/MID CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE IN FROM THE
EAST...PERHAPS REACHING AS FAR WEST AS I-95.

OTHERWISE...CLEAR TONIGHT WITH VALLEY AND PIEDMONT FOG. GUIDANCE
IS SUGGESTING SOME FOG FOR THE METRO AREAS TOO...BUT THE
CLOUD/CLEAR LINE WILL DETERMINE THAT. MIN TEMPS MID TO UPR 50S
WEST OF BALT-WASH...LOW TO MID 60S FOR THE COASTAL LOWLANDS...NEAR
70F URBAN AND NEAR SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OFFSHORE AND THEN A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES DURING THE DAY AND CROSSES LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. FIVE PERCENT RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND FROM SPC ROUGHLY
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN TIMING DURING PEAK
HEATING. MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 80S (PERHAPS UPR 80S EAST OF I-95
IF MORNING CLOUDS CLEAR SOON ENOUGH) AND LIFTED INDICES FROM THE
GFS AROUND -2.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MONDAY WITH NWLY WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 MPH.
MAX TEMPS LOW TO MID 70S. CLOUDS CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY...SUNNY BY
THE AFTERNOON.

CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING
OVER THE AREA. MIN TEMPS COULD BE INTO THE MID 30S IN THE
ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS WHERE FROST IS POSSIBLE. MENTIONED THIS IN THE
HWO. OTHERWISE...MIN TEMPS LOW TO MID 40S...MID 50S NEAR SHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DEEP-LAYER RIDGING WILL ENTRENCH ITSELF OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES BEGINNING TUESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A
SEASONABLY COOL AND INITIALLY DRIER AIRMASS. BUT AS THE HIGH
MIGRATES TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK
AN ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS WHICH WILL LEAD TO GRADUALLY INCREASING
MOISTURE. THIS COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN BY THE
END OF THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS FROM
THE ATLANTIC.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK...BUT COULD REBOUND TO AROUND NORMAL LEVELS BY NEXT
WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AMIDST ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE COAST FROM GEORGIA. A COLD FRONT CROSSES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS BEST EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD HAVE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

NW FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...COULD GUST AROUND 20 KT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED VFR.

VFR LIKELY TUE-WED NIGHT...WINDS GENERALLY NE 10 KTS OR LESS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW FROM SFC HIGH RIDGE OVER THE AREA WITH A BAY
BREEZE THAT WILL ENDS THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF
GEORGIA WILL STRENGTHEN AND LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLING
COAST TONIGHT AND MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY. THE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE LOW PASSES MIDDAY SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT. JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE. NWLY FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TO 15 KT OR SO. SCA GUSTS TO 20 KT
CURRENTLY LOOK TO WAIT UNTIL MONDAY MORNING...THOUGH THEY COULD
ARRIVE WITH THE COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. LATER SHIFTS WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THAT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS...WITH SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE AT TIMES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO PULL AWAY AND THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING WELL TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTIES
UNTIL 7 PM. WILL MISS THE MARK AT BALTIMORE/FT MCHENRY...THOUGH
THEIR LEVELS ARE ELEVATED WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE EVE`S HIGH
TIDE. DEPARTURES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...UP TO 1.5 FT ABOVE
NORMAL...SO MORE COUNTIES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE IN THE ADVISORY
FOR THE HIGH TIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DCZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ014.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ054.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...BAJ
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...BAJ/DFH
MARINE...BAJ/DFH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...GMS/BAJ








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 202001
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
401 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LIFTS NORTH ALONG...THEN
OFF...THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE...AND COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS...FOR MOST OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST RIDGES SWWD INTO
THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS RESULTING IN A VERY NICE
EARLY FALL DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ALONG AS WEST OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY. TEMPS ARE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT JUST OFF THE SE COAST
IS GENERATING CONSIDERABLE CLDS ACRS THE CNTRL/SRN DELMARVA...SE
VA AND NE NC. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ALSO MOVED NWWD FROM THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND INTO OUR NE NC COUNTIES. THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE INTO DRIER AIR INLAND. THE LOW WILL MOVE NE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND BE EAST OF DELMARVA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE SIDED CLOSED TO THE 12Z GFS WITH REGARD TO WESTERN
EXTENT OF PRECIP AND SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS...AS NAM APPEARS TOO
AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING BOTH CLOUDS AND PRECIP NWWD. POP/WEATHER
FORECAST SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE...ALTHOUGH CHC POPS PUSHED
SOMEWHAT WWD INTO DELMARVA/SE VA AND A GOOD PART OF NE NC. LIKELY
POPS FORECAST BY MET GUIDANCE SEEM TOO HIGH...AND HAVE GONE CLOSER
TO...BUT STILL A BIT BELOW...MAV GUIDANCE. ANY PRECIP WITH THE
OFFSHORE LOW WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
SUNDAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

MIN TEMPS TONIGHT CLOSE TO OR SLIGHT ABOVE THIS MORNINGS TEMPS
AWAY FROM THE BAY/OCEAN...WITH MANY AREAS AT OR A FEW DEGREES
BELOW 60. CLOSER TO THE BAY/OCEAN...CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIP SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPED LAST NIGHT...AND
EXPECT IT AGAIN TONIGHT IN AREAS AWAY FROM THE WATER.

THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT SEVERAL WILL BE ON SUNDAY...WITH MANY
AREAS SEEING THE UPPER 80S...AND ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO MAKE INTO
THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
EVENING. MODELS INDICATE LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD
OF FRONT...SO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED. HAVE
INCREASED POPS SUNDAY EVENING IN THE PIEDMONT AREA TO 30%...MAINLY
IN DEFERENCE TO NAM12 PRECIP DEPICTION. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A
SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS SUNDAY EVENING...WITH SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRONT WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST...BUT ANY PRECIP BEYOND 04Z EXPECTED TO
BE WIDELY SCATTERED. AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE
FA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE
REGION WITH MUCH DRIER AIR...AND MAX TEMPS 75-80 DEGREES.

THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50. A
SUNNY PLEASANT DAY EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE OH VALLEY/NE
STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE
OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO
PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL STICK TO 20% POPS FOR
NOW. IN GENERAL 12Z GFS KEEPS ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE ECMWF
BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED. HI TEMPS WILL AVG IN THE
MID TO UPR 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 50S TO LWR 60S OVR
MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AN ENE WIND...WITH SPEEDS OF 8-20KT
ALONG THE COAST...AND 5-10KT INLAND. CONDS ARE GENERALLY VFR
ACROSS THE CWA BUT TAF SITES ALONG THE COAST...ORF/ECG/PHF...HAVE
SHOWN SOME TEMPO MVFR CIGS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMES IN OFF THE
WATER. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE TREND THRU THE AFTN/EVENING AS THE
LOW GRADUALLY MOVES UP THE COAST.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA OVER COASTAL SE VA/NE NC TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AS THE LOW TRACKS OFF THE COAST. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC -SHRA AND/OR
-TSRA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND PREVAILS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC HI PRES STRETCHES DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC CST TNGT AS LO PRES
PASSES OFFSHORE. AS FAR AS HEADLINES...SCA OVR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY
WILL CONTINUE THRU 10 PM DUE TO 4 FT WAVES. HIGH SEAS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE OVR THE CSTL WTRS DUE TO PROLONGED ERLY/NERLY FETCH. WILL
CONTINUE HEADLINES THERE INTO TOMORO...ENDING THEM FM N TO S THRU
THE DAY AS FLOW BCMS NLY. A COLD FRNT CROSSES THE WTRS LATE SUN/ERLY
MON...WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO STAY SUB-SCA POST FRNTAL DUE TO A
WEAK GRADIENT AND CAA. SECONDARY SURGE AND HI PRES BLDG N OF THE
AREA MON NGT MAY BRING WINDS JUST SHY OF 20 KT OVR THE BAY...BUT
WILL CAP AT AROUND 15 KT FOR NOW. FOR TUE THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK...ANOTHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF NE FLOW WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED
WAVES AND SEAS AND SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/WRS
NEAR TERM...WRS
SHORT TERM...WRS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...AJZ/JEF
MARINE...MAS





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 202001
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
401 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LIFTS NORTH ALONG...THEN
OFF...THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE...AND COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS...FOR MOST OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST RIDGES SWWD INTO
THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS RESULTING IN A VERY NICE
EARLY FALL DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ALONG AS WEST OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY. TEMPS ARE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT JUST OFF THE SE COAST
IS GENERATING CONSIDERABLE CLDS ACRS THE CNTRL/SRN DELMARVA...SE
VA AND NE NC. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ALSO MOVED NWWD FROM THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND INTO OUR NE NC COUNTIES. THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE INTO DRIER AIR INLAND. THE LOW WILL MOVE NE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND BE EAST OF DELMARVA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE SIDED CLOSED TO THE 12Z GFS WITH REGARD TO WESTERN
EXTENT OF PRECIP AND SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS...AS NAM APPEARS TOO
AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING BOTH CLOUDS AND PRECIP NWWD. POP/WEATHER
FORECAST SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE...ALTHOUGH CHC POPS PUSHED
SOMEWHAT WWD INTO DELMARVA/SE VA AND A GOOD PART OF NE NC. LIKELY
POPS FORECAST BY MET GUIDANCE SEEM TOO HIGH...AND HAVE GONE CLOSER
TO...BUT STILL A BIT BELOW...MAV GUIDANCE. ANY PRECIP WITH THE
OFFSHORE LOW WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
SUNDAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

MIN TEMPS TONIGHT CLOSE TO OR SLIGHT ABOVE THIS MORNINGS TEMPS
AWAY FROM THE BAY/OCEAN...WITH MANY AREAS AT OR A FEW DEGREES
BELOW 60. CLOSER TO THE BAY/OCEAN...CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIP SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPED LAST NIGHT...AND
EXPECT IT AGAIN TONIGHT IN AREAS AWAY FROM THE WATER.

THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT SEVERAL WILL BE ON SUNDAY...WITH MANY
AREAS SEEING THE UPPER 80S...AND ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO MAKE INTO
THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
EVENING. MODELS INDICATE LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD
OF FRONT...SO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED. HAVE
INCREASED POPS SUNDAY EVENING IN THE PIEDMONT AREA TO 30%...MAINLY
IN DEFERENCE TO NAM12 PRECIP DEPICTION. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A
SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS SUNDAY EVENING...WITH SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRONT WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST...BUT ANY PRECIP BEYOND 04Z EXPECTED TO
BE WIDELY SCATTERED. AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE
FA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE
REGION WITH MUCH DRIER AIR...AND MAX TEMPS 75-80 DEGREES.

THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50. A
SUNNY PLEASANT DAY EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE OH VALLEY/NE
STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE
OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO
PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL STICK TO 20% POPS FOR
NOW. IN GENERAL 12Z GFS KEEPS ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE ECMWF
BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED. HI TEMPS WILL AVG IN THE
MID TO UPR 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 50S TO LWR 60S OVR
MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AN ENE WIND...WITH SPEEDS OF 8-20KT
ALONG THE COAST...AND 5-10KT INLAND. CONDS ARE GENERALLY VFR
ACROSS THE CWA BUT TAF SITES ALONG THE COAST...ORF/ECG/PHF...HAVE
SHOWN SOME TEMPO MVFR CIGS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMES IN OFF THE
WATER. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE TREND THRU THE AFTN/EVENING AS THE
LOW GRADUALLY MOVES UP THE COAST.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA OVER COASTAL SE VA/NE NC TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AS THE LOW TRACKS OFF THE COAST. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC -SHRA AND/OR
-TSRA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND PREVAILS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC HI PRES STRETCHES DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC CST TNGT AS LO PRES
PASSES OFFSHORE. AS FAR AS HEADLINES...SCA OVR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY
WILL CONTINUE THRU 10 PM DUE TO 4 FT WAVES. HIGH SEAS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE OVR THE CSTL WTRS DUE TO PROLONGED ERLY/NERLY FETCH. WILL
CONTINUE HEADLINES THERE INTO TOMORO...ENDING THEM FM N TO S THRU
THE DAY AS FLOW BCMS NLY. A COLD FRNT CROSSES THE WTRS LATE SUN/ERLY
MON...WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO STAY SUB-SCA POST FRNTAL DUE TO A
WEAK GRADIENT AND CAA. SECONDARY SURGE AND HI PRES BLDG N OF THE
AREA MON NGT MAY BRING WINDS JUST SHY OF 20 KT OVR THE BAY...BUT
WILL CAP AT AROUND 15 KT FOR NOW. FOR TUE THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK...ANOTHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF NE FLOW WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED
WAVES AND SEAS AND SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/WRS
NEAR TERM...WRS
SHORT TERM...WRS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...AJZ/JEF
MARINE...MAS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 201932
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
332 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LIFTS NORTH TO JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR
REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN. MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL COVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE UPPER TROUGH OVR THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DEEPEN AND TRAVEL
EAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST
TONIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE OF THE GEORGIA COAST LIFTS NORTHWARD IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
THE SOUTHEAST LOW CENTER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. ADDED THE MENTION
OF PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE
ADJMAVBC WITH READINGS FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE COOLER VALLEYS TO
NEAR 60 IN THE PIEDMONT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...TRAVEL ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY EVENING AND EXIT
THE PIEDMONT SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE STRONG MIDLEVEL FLOW AT 700 MB
AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPEN AND SOME INSTABILITY...SPC IN THE DAY
2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS ALLOWED FOR A 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN
THREAT FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LEANED HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY CLOSE
TO ADJMETBC WITH VALUES FROM THE MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
MID 80S IN THE PIEDMONT.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES
SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT SUNDAY EVENING...AND WILL CONTINUE RAPIDLY
SOUTHEAST...EXITING THE SOUTHSIDE BY AROUND 6 AM MONDAY MORNING. THE
FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT A NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT THAT WILL USHER
IN COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN AIR...DEFINITELY A SIGNAL THAT AUTUMN
IS COMING AS WE APPROACH THE EQUINOX. DRIER AIR WILL CAUSE A RAPID
REDUCTION IN SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH ONLY
A FEW SPRINKLES REMAINING ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST FLOW UPSLOPE REGIONS
IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA BY DAWN.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY ON A 4MB TO 5MB
PRESSURE GRADIENT...RESULTING IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS REACHING 20
MPH TO OCCASIONALLY 25 MPH AT TIMES ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGES. GUSTS
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WILL BE LOWER...GENERALLY AROUND 15 MPH. WIND
SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH DURING EARLY EVENING AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE SINKS SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE OF OUR WEATHER
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...GRADUALLY PUSHING TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TO
BRING OUR WINDS INCREASINGLY NORTHEASTERLY. WITH CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO 40S...POSSIBLY INTO THE
UPPER 30S IN A FEW OF THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A 1032MB SURFACE HIGH THAT
STARTS IN SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH
OVER THE NE STATES BY SATURDAY. THE RESULT OF THIS WILL BE AN
EASTERLY WEDGE FLOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT OF A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW BY THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF TO OUR WEST...WHICH WILL IMPACT HOW MUCH MOISTURE CAN GET
PULLED INTO THE REGION. AT THIS POINT TRENDED TOWARD HPC AND THE
DRIER GFS SOLUTIONS AND KEPT JUST LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ANY
PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL LIKELY BE JUST PATCHY DRIZZLE WITH LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATION.

WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS AS THE MODELS ARE TYPICALLY TOO
WARM WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW. EXPECT SURFACE HIGHS OF MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO LOW 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT SATURDAY...

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. THIS
WILL BRING MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY TO KBCB/KDAN AND LYH AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LIFR FOG IS POSSIBLE IN FOR KLWB SINCE SEVERAL HOURS OF
CLEAR SKY ARE EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET.

RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL DISSIPATE SUNDAY MORNING AFTER DAYBREAK.
UPSTREAM TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DURING THE PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS DURING THE TAF PERIOD.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING DRIER AIR TO THE REGION FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK PROMOTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. RIVER VALLEY FOG
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AT NIGHT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...AMS/KK



000
FXUS61 KRNK 201932
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
332 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LIFTS NORTH TO JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR
REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN. MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL COVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE UPPER TROUGH OVR THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DEEPEN AND TRAVEL
EAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST
TONIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE OF THE GEORGIA COAST LIFTS NORTHWARD IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
THE SOUTHEAST LOW CENTER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. ADDED THE MENTION
OF PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE
ADJMAVBC WITH READINGS FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE COOLER VALLEYS TO
NEAR 60 IN THE PIEDMONT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...TRAVEL ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY EVENING AND EXIT
THE PIEDMONT SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE STRONG MIDLEVEL FLOW AT 700 MB
AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPEN AND SOME INSTABILITY...SPC IN THE DAY
2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS ALLOWED FOR A 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN
THREAT FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LEANED HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY CLOSE
TO ADJMETBC WITH VALUES FROM THE MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
MID 80S IN THE PIEDMONT.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES
SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT SUNDAY EVENING...AND WILL CONTINUE RAPIDLY
SOUTHEAST...EXITING THE SOUTHSIDE BY AROUND 6 AM MONDAY MORNING. THE
FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT A NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT THAT WILL USHER
IN COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN AIR...DEFINITELY A SIGNAL THAT AUTUMN
IS COMING AS WE APPROACH THE EQUINOX. DRIER AIR WILL CAUSE A RAPID
REDUCTION IN SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH ONLY
A FEW SPRINKLES REMAINING ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST FLOW UPSLOPE REGIONS
IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA BY DAWN.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY ON A 4MB TO 5MB
PRESSURE GRADIENT...RESULTING IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS REACHING 20
MPH TO OCCASIONALLY 25 MPH AT TIMES ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGES. GUSTS
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WILL BE LOWER...GENERALLY AROUND 15 MPH. WIND
SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH DURING EARLY EVENING AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE SINKS SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE OF OUR WEATHER
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...GRADUALLY PUSHING TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TO
BRING OUR WINDS INCREASINGLY NORTHEASTERLY. WITH CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO 40S...POSSIBLY INTO THE
UPPER 30S IN A FEW OF THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A 1032MB SURFACE HIGH THAT
STARTS IN SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH
OVER THE NE STATES BY SATURDAY. THE RESULT OF THIS WILL BE AN
EASTERLY WEDGE FLOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT OF A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW BY THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF TO OUR WEST...WHICH WILL IMPACT HOW MUCH MOISTURE CAN GET
PULLED INTO THE REGION. AT THIS POINT TRENDED TOWARD HPC AND THE
DRIER GFS SOLUTIONS AND KEPT JUST LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ANY
PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL LIKELY BE JUST PATCHY DRIZZLE WITH LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATION.

WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS AS THE MODELS ARE TYPICALLY TOO
WARM WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW. EXPECT SURFACE HIGHS OF MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO LOW 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT SATURDAY...

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. THIS
WILL BRING MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY TO KBCB/KDAN AND LYH AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LIFR FOG IS POSSIBLE IN FOR KLWB SINCE SEVERAL HOURS OF
CLEAR SKY ARE EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET.

RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL DISSIPATE SUNDAY MORNING AFTER DAYBREAK.
UPSTREAM TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DURING THE PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS DURING THE TAF PERIOD.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING DRIER AIR TO THE REGION FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK PROMOTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. RIVER VALLEY FOG
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AT NIGHT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...AMS/KK




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201917
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
317 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LIFTS NORTH ALONG...THEN
OFF...THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE...AND COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS...FOR MOST OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST RIDGES SWWD INTO
THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS RESULTING IN A VERY NICE
EARLY FALL DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ALONG AS WEST OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY. TEMPS ARE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT JUST OFF THE SE COAST
IS GENERATING CONSIDERABLE CLDS ACRS THE CNTRL/SRN DELMARVA...SE
VA AND NE NC. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ALSO MOVED NWWD FROM THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND INTO OUR NE NC COUNTIES. THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE INTO DRIER AIR INLAND. THE LOW WILL MOVE NE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND BE EAST OF DELMARVA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE SIDED CLOSED TO THE 12Z GFS WITH REGARD TO WESTERN
EXTENT OF PRECIP AND SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS...AS NAM APPEARS TOO
AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING BOTH CLOUDS AND PRECIP NWWD. POP/WEATHER
FORECAST SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE...ALTHOUGH CHC POPS PUSHED
SOMEWHAT WWD INTO DELMARVA/SE VA AND A GOOD PART OF NE NC. LIKELY
POPS FORECAST BY MET GUIDANCE SEEM TOO HIGH...AND HAVE GONE CLOSER
TO...BUT STILL A BIT BELOW...MAV GUIDANCE. ANY PRECIP WITH THE
OFFSHORE LOW WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
SUNDAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

MIN TEMPS TONIGHT CLOSE TO OR SLIGHT ABOVE THIS MORNINGS TEMPS
AWAY FROM THE BAY/OCEAN...WITH MANY AREAS AT OR A FEW DEGREES
BELOW 60. CLOSER TO THE BAY/OCEAN...CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIP SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPED LAST NIGHT...AND
EXPECT IT AGAIN TONIGHT IN AREAS AWAY FROM THE WATER.

THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT SEVERAL WILL BE ON SUNDAY...WITH MANY
AREAS SEEING THE UPPER 80S...AND ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO MAKE INTO
THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
EVENING. MODELS INDICATE LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD
OF FRONT...SO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED. HAVE
INCREASED POPS SUNDAY EVENING IN THE PIEDMONT AREA TO 30%...MAINLY
IN DEFERENCE TO NAM12 PRECIP DEPICTION. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A
SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS SUNDAY EVENING...WITH SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRONT WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST...BUT ANY PRECIP BEYOND 04Z EXPECTED TO
BE WIDELY SCATTERED. AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE
FA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE
REGION WITH MUCH DRIER AIR...AND MAX TEMPS 75-80 DEGREES.

THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50. A
SUNNY PLEASANT DAY EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND UNEVENTFUL WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PARKS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS MEANS A CONTINUATION OF
NE TO E WINDS WHICH MAY HAVE SOME MARINE IMPLICATIONS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK.

A SURFACE TROUGH MAY DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK. MODELS INDICATE LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH SOME
OF IT SPREADING INTO OUR AREA. SLGT CHC SHOWERS ARE IN THE FCST ERN
VA/NE NC LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AN ENE WIND...WITH SPEEDS OF 8-20KT
ALONG THE COAST...AND 5-10KT INLAND. CONDS ARE GENERALLY VFR
ACROSS THE CWA BUT TAF SITES ALONG THE COAST...ORF/ECG/PHF...HAVE
SHOWN SOME TEMPO MVFR CIGS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMES IN OFF THE
WATER. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE TREND THRU THE AFTN/EVENING AS THE
LOW GRADUALLY MOVES UP THE COAST.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA OVER COASTAL SE VA/NE NC TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AS THE LOW TRACKS OFF THE COAST. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC -SHRA AND/OR
-TSRA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND PREVAILS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...A SCA WAS ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW
POINT COMFORT TO CAPE HENRY UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. A SCA IS
ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND
THROUGH 4PM THIS AFTERNOON...AND FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.
OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATE SCA WINDS ~20KT ENE HAVE CONTINUED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND. THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON. WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FT WILL OCCUR IN THE LOWER BAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN A 10-15KT ENE WIND. THE PERSISTENCE OF THE ONSHORE
WIND WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 5-6FT OUT NEAR 20NM. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NNE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN ALLOWING THE
WIND TO SHIFT TO N-NE AND DIMINISH TO AOB 10KT. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
~5FT AND HENCE THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE RACES OFF TO THE NE SUNDAY...WITH THE WIND EVENTUALLY
BECOMING SW BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A NNE WIND SHOULD
CONTINUE EARLY SUNDAY OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS...SO THE SCA FOR
THIS PARTICULAR ZONE HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE FLOW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/WRS
NEAR TERM...WRS
SHORT TERM...WRS
LONG TERM...MAS/JAO
AVIATION...AJZ/JEF
MARINE...MAS/JEF






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201917
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
317 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LIFTS NORTH ALONG...THEN
OFF...THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE...AND COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS...FOR MOST OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST RIDGES SWWD INTO
THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS RESULTING IN A VERY NICE
EARLY FALL DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ALONG AS WEST OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY. TEMPS ARE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT JUST OFF THE SE COAST
IS GENERATING CONSIDERABLE CLDS ACRS THE CNTRL/SRN DELMARVA...SE
VA AND NE NC. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ALSO MOVED NWWD FROM THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND INTO OUR NE NC COUNTIES. THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE INTO DRIER AIR INLAND. THE LOW WILL MOVE NE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND BE EAST OF DELMARVA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE SIDED CLOSED TO THE 12Z GFS WITH REGARD TO WESTERN
EXTENT OF PRECIP AND SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS...AS NAM APPEARS TOO
AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING BOTH CLOUDS AND PRECIP NWWD. POP/WEATHER
FORECAST SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE...ALTHOUGH CHC POPS PUSHED
SOMEWHAT WWD INTO DELMARVA/SE VA AND A GOOD PART OF NE NC. LIKELY
POPS FORECAST BY MET GUIDANCE SEEM TOO HIGH...AND HAVE GONE CLOSER
TO...BUT STILL A BIT BELOW...MAV GUIDANCE. ANY PRECIP WITH THE
OFFSHORE LOW WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
SUNDAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

MIN TEMPS TONIGHT CLOSE TO OR SLIGHT ABOVE THIS MORNINGS TEMPS
AWAY FROM THE BAY/OCEAN...WITH MANY AREAS AT OR A FEW DEGREES
BELOW 60. CLOSER TO THE BAY/OCEAN...CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIP SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPED LAST NIGHT...AND
EXPECT IT AGAIN TONIGHT IN AREAS AWAY FROM THE WATER.

THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT SEVERAL WILL BE ON SUNDAY...WITH MANY
AREAS SEEING THE UPPER 80S...AND ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO MAKE INTO
THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
EVENING. MODELS INDICATE LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD
OF FRONT...SO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED. HAVE
INCREASED POPS SUNDAY EVENING IN THE PIEDMONT AREA TO 30%...MAINLY
IN DEFERENCE TO NAM12 PRECIP DEPICTION. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A
SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS SUNDAY EVENING...WITH SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRONT WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST...BUT ANY PRECIP BEYOND 04Z EXPECTED TO
BE WIDELY SCATTERED. AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE
FA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE
REGION WITH MUCH DRIER AIR...AND MAX TEMPS 75-80 DEGREES.

THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50. A
SUNNY PLEASANT DAY EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND UNEVENTFUL WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PARKS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS MEANS A CONTINUATION OF
NE TO E WINDS WHICH MAY HAVE SOME MARINE IMPLICATIONS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK.

A SURFACE TROUGH MAY DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK. MODELS INDICATE LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH SOME
OF IT SPREADING INTO OUR AREA. SLGT CHC SHOWERS ARE IN THE FCST ERN
VA/NE NC LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AN ENE WIND...WITH SPEEDS OF 8-20KT
ALONG THE COAST...AND 5-10KT INLAND. CONDS ARE GENERALLY VFR
ACROSS THE CWA BUT TAF SITES ALONG THE COAST...ORF/ECG/PHF...HAVE
SHOWN SOME TEMPO MVFR CIGS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMES IN OFF THE
WATER. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE TREND THRU THE AFTN/EVENING AS THE
LOW GRADUALLY MOVES UP THE COAST.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA OVER COASTAL SE VA/NE NC TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AS THE LOW TRACKS OFF THE COAST. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC -SHRA AND/OR
-TSRA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND PREVAILS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...A SCA WAS ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW
POINT COMFORT TO CAPE HENRY UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. A SCA IS
ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND
THROUGH 4PM THIS AFTERNOON...AND FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.
OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATE SCA WINDS ~20KT ENE HAVE CONTINUED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND. THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON. WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FT WILL OCCUR IN THE LOWER BAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN A 10-15KT ENE WIND. THE PERSISTENCE OF THE ONSHORE
WIND WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 5-6FT OUT NEAR 20NM. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NNE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN ALLOWING THE
WIND TO SHIFT TO N-NE AND DIMINISH TO AOB 10KT. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
~5FT AND HENCE THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE RACES OFF TO THE NE SUNDAY...WITH THE WIND EVENTUALLY
BECOMING SW BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A NNE WIND SHOULD
CONTINUE EARLY SUNDAY OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS...SO THE SCA FOR
THIS PARTICULAR ZONE HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE FLOW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/WRS
NEAR TERM...WRS
SHORT TERM...WRS
LONG TERM...MAS/JAO
AVIATION...AJZ/JEF
MARINE...MAS/JEF






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201917
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
317 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LIFTS NORTH ALONG...THEN
OFF...THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE...AND COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS...FOR MOST OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST RIDGES SWWD INTO
THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS RESULTING IN A VERY NICE
EARLY FALL DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ALONG AS WEST OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY. TEMPS ARE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT JUST OFF THE SE COAST
IS GENERATING CONSIDERABLE CLDS ACRS THE CNTRL/SRN DELMARVA...SE
VA AND NE NC. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ALSO MOVED NWWD FROM THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND INTO OUR NE NC COUNTIES. THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE INTO DRIER AIR INLAND. THE LOW WILL MOVE NE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND BE EAST OF DELMARVA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE SIDED CLOSED TO THE 12Z GFS WITH REGARD TO WESTERN
EXTENT OF PRECIP AND SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS...AS NAM APPEARS TOO
AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING BOTH CLOUDS AND PRECIP NWWD. POP/WEATHER
FORECAST SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE...ALTHOUGH CHC POPS PUSHED
SOMEWHAT WWD INTO DELMARVA/SE VA AND A GOOD PART OF NE NC. LIKELY
POPS FORECAST BY MET GUIDANCE SEEM TOO HIGH...AND HAVE GONE CLOSER
TO...BUT STILL A BIT BELOW...MAV GUIDANCE. ANY PRECIP WITH THE
OFFSHORE LOW WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
SUNDAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

MIN TEMPS TONIGHT CLOSE TO OR SLIGHT ABOVE THIS MORNINGS TEMPS
AWAY FROM THE BAY/OCEAN...WITH MANY AREAS AT OR A FEW DEGREES
BELOW 60. CLOSER TO THE BAY/OCEAN...CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIP SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPED LAST NIGHT...AND
EXPECT IT AGAIN TONIGHT IN AREAS AWAY FROM THE WATER.

THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT SEVERAL WILL BE ON SUNDAY...WITH MANY
AREAS SEEING THE UPPER 80S...AND ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO MAKE INTO
THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
EVENING. MODELS INDICATE LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD
OF FRONT...SO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED. HAVE
INCREASED POPS SUNDAY EVENING IN THE PIEDMONT AREA TO 30%...MAINLY
IN DEFERENCE TO NAM12 PRECIP DEPICTION. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A
SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS SUNDAY EVENING...WITH SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRONT WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST...BUT ANY PRECIP BEYOND 04Z EXPECTED TO
BE WIDELY SCATTERED. AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE
FA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE
REGION WITH MUCH DRIER AIR...AND MAX TEMPS 75-80 DEGREES.

THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50. A
SUNNY PLEASANT DAY EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND UNEVENTFUL WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PARKS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS MEANS A CONTINUATION OF
NE TO E WINDS WHICH MAY HAVE SOME MARINE IMPLICATIONS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK.

A SURFACE TROUGH MAY DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK. MODELS INDICATE LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH SOME
OF IT SPREADING INTO OUR AREA. SLGT CHC SHOWERS ARE IN THE FCST ERN
VA/NE NC LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AN ENE WIND...WITH SPEEDS OF 8-20KT
ALONG THE COAST...AND 5-10KT INLAND. CONDS ARE GENERALLY VFR
ACROSS THE CWA BUT TAF SITES ALONG THE COAST...ORF/ECG/PHF...HAVE
SHOWN SOME TEMPO MVFR CIGS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMES IN OFF THE
WATER. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE TREND THRU THE AFTN/EVENING AS THE
LOW GRADUALLY MOVES UP THE COAST.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA OVER COASTAL SE VA/NE NC TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AS THE LOW TRACKS OFF THE COAST. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC -SHRA AND/OR
-TSRA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND PREVAILS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...A SCA WAS ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW
POINT COMFORT TO CAPE HENRY UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. A SCA IS
ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND
THROUGH 4PM THIS AFTERNOON...AND FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.
OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATE SCA WINDS ~20KT ENE HAVE CONTINUED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND. THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON. WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FT WILL OCCUR IN THE LOWER BAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN A 10-15KT ENE WIND. THE PERSISTENCE OF THE ONSHORE
WIND WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 5-6FT OUT NEAR 20NM. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NNE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN ALLOWING THE
WIND TO SHIFT TO N-NE AND DIMINISH TO AOB 10KT. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
~5FT AND HENCE THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE RACES OFF TO THE NE SUNDAY...WITH THE WIND EVENTUALLY
BECOMING SW BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A NNE WIND SHOULD
CONTINUE EARLY SUNDAY OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS...SO THE SCA FOR
THIS PARTICULAR ZONE HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE FLOW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/WRS
NEAR TERM...WRS
SHORT TERM...WRS
LONG TERM...MAS/JAO
AVIATION...AJZ/JEF
MARINE...MAS/JEF






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201917
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
317 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LIFTS NORTH ALONG...THEN
OFF...THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE...AND COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS...FOR MOST OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST RIDGES SWWD INTO
THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS RESULTING IN A VERY NICE
EARLY FALL DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ALONG AS WEST OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY. TEMPS ARE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT JUST OFF THE SE COAST
IS GENERATING CONSIDERABLE CLDS ACRS THE CNTRL/SRN DELMARVA...SE
VA AND NE NC. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ALSO MOVED NWWD FROM THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND INTO OUR NE NC COUNTIES. THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE INTO DRIER AIR INLAND. THE LOW WILL MOVE NE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND BE EAST OF DELMARVA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE SIDED CLOSED TO THE 12Z GFS WITH REGARD TO WESTERN
EXTENT OF PRECIP AND SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS...AS NAM APPEARS TOO
AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING BOTH CLOUDS AND PRECIP NWWD. POP/WEATHER
FORECAST SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE...ALTHOUGH CHC POPS PUSHED
SOMEWHAT WWD INTO DELMARVA/SE VA AND A GOOD PART OF NE NC. LIKELY
POPS FORECAST BY MET GUIDANCE SEEM TOO HIGH...AND HAVE GONE CLOSER
TO...BUT STILL A BIT BELOW...MAV GUIDANCE. ANY PRECIP WITH THE
OFFSHORE LOW WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
SUNDAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

MIN TEMPS TONIGHT CLOSE TO OR SLIGHT ABOVE THIS MORNINGS TEMPS
AWAY FROM THE BAY/OCEAN...WITH MANY AREAS AT OR A FEW DEGREES
BELOW 60. CLOSER TO THE BAY/OCEAN...CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIP SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPED LAST NIGHT...AND
EXPECT IT AGAIN TONIGHT IN AREAS AWAY FROM THE WATER.

THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT SEVERAL WILL BE ON SUNDAY...WITH MANY
AREAS SEEING THE UPPER 80S...AND ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO MAKE INTO
THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
EVENING. MODELS INDICATE LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD
OF FRONT...SO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED. HAVE
INCREASED POPS SUNDAY EVENING IN THE PIEDMONT AREA TO 30%...MAINLY
IN DEFERENCE TO NAM12 PRECIP DEPICTION. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A
SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS SUNDAY EVENING...WITH SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRONT WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST...BUT ANY PRECIP BEYOND 04Z EXPECTED TO
BE WIDELY SCATTERED. AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE
FA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE
REGION WITH MUCH DRIER AIR...AND MAX TEMPS 75-80 DEGREES.

THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50. A
SUNNY PLEASANT DAY EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND UNEVENTFUL WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PARKS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS MEANS A CONTINUATION OF
NE TO E WINDS WHICH MAY HAVE SOME MARINE IMPLICATIONS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK.

A SURFACE TROUGH MAY DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK. MODELS INDICATE LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH SOME
OF IT SPREADING INTO OUR AREA. SLGT CHC SHOWERS ARE IN THE FCST ERN
VA/NE NC LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AN ENE WIND...WITH SPEEDS OF 8-20KT
ALONG THE COAST...AND 5-10KT INLAND. CONDS ARE GENERALLY VFR
ACROSS THE CWA BUT TAF SITES ALONG THE COAST...ORF/ECG/PHF...HAVE
SHOWN SOME TEMPO MVFR CIGS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMES IN OFF THE
WATER. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE TREND THRU THE AFTN/EVENING AS THE
LOW GRADUALLY MOVES UP THE COAST.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA OVER COASTAL SE VA/NE NC TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AS THE LOW TRACKS OFF THE COAST. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC -SHRA AND/OR
-TSRA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND PREVAILS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...A SCA WAS ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW
POINT COMFORT TO CAPE HENRY UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. A SCA IS
ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND
THROUGH 4PM THIS AFTERNOON...AND FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.
OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATE SCA WINDS ~20KT ENE HAVE CONTINUED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND. THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON. WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FT WILL OCCUR IN THE LOWER BAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN A 10-15KT ENE WIND. THE PERSISTENCE OF THE ONSHORE
WIND WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 5-6FT OUT NEAR 20NM. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NNE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN ALLOWING THE
WIND TO SHIFT TO N-NE AND DIMINISH TO AOB 10KT. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
~5FT AND HENCE THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE RACES OFF TO THE NE SUNDAY...WITH THE WIND EVENTUALLY
BECOMING SW BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A NNE WIND SHOULD
CONTINUE EARLY SUNDAY OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS...SO THE SCA FOR
THIS PARTICULAR ZONE HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE FLOW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/WRS
NEAR TERM...WRS
SHORT TERM...WRS
LONG TERM...MAS/JAO
AVIATION...AJZ/JEF
MARINE...MAS/JEF






000
FXUS61 KLWX 201858
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
258 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO TONIGHT. A SURFACE LOW OFF THE
GEORGIA COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST BY CAPE HATTERAS SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE IN MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 18Z...SFC RIDGE IS DRAPED WSW TO ENE ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE
AXIS OVER DC. AN ASSOCIATED ONSHORE FLOW (WITH A BIT OF A BAY
BREEZE) WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EVENING. A TROUGH IN ADVANCE OF A LOW
OFF THE GEORGIA COAST EXTENDS NORTHEAST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRESENT. THIS ACTIVITY
COULD APPROACH MD WATERS...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LOWER ST MARYS
AND EAST. LOW/MID CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE IN FROM THE EAST...PERHAPS
REACHING AS FAR WEST AS I-95.

OTHERWISE...CLEAR TONIGHT WITH VALLEY AND PIEDMONT FOG. GUIDANCE
IS SUGGESTING SOME FOG FOR THE METRO AREAS TOO...BUT THE
CLOUD/CLEAR LINE WILL DETERMINE THAT. MIN TEMPS MID TO UPR 50S
WEST OF BALT-WASH...LOW TO MID 60S FOR THE COASTAL LOWLANDS...NEAR
70F URBAN AND NEAR SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OFFSHORE AND THEN A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES DURING THE DAY AND CROSSES LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. FIVE PERCENT RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND FROM SPC ROUGHLY
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN TIMING DURING PEAK
HEATING. MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 80S (PERHAPS UPR 80S EAST OF I-95
IF MORNING CLOUDS CLEAR SOON ENOUGH) AND LIFTED INDICES FROM THE
GFS AROUND -2.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MONDAY WITH NWLY WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 MPH.
MAX TEMPS LOW TO MID 70S. CLOUDS CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY...SUNNY BY
THE AFTERNOON.

CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING
OVER THE AREA. MIN TEMPS COULD BE INTO THE MID 30S IN THE
ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS WHERE FROST IS POSSIBLE. MENTIONED THIS IN THE
HWO. OTHERWISE...MIN TEMPS LOW TO MID 40S...MID 50S NEAR SHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DEEP-LAYER RIDGING WILL ENTRENCH ITSELF OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES BEGINNING TUESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A
SEASONABLY COOL AND INITIALLY DRIER AIRMASS. BUT AS THE HIGH
MIGRATES TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK
AN ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS WHICH WILL LEAD TO GRADUALLY INCREASING
MOISTURE. THIS COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN BY THE
END OF THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS FROM
THE ATLANTIC.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK...BUT COULD REBOUND TO AROUND NORMAL LEVELS BY NEXT
WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AMIDST ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE COAST FROM GEORGIA. A COLD FRONT CROSSES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS BEST EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD HAVE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

NW FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...COULD GUST AROUND 20 KT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED VFR.

VFR LIKELY TUE-WED NIGHT...WINDS GENERALLY NE 10 KTS OR LESS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW FROM SFC HIGH RIDGE OVER THE AREA WITH A BAY
BREEZE THAT WILL ENDS THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF
GEORGIA WILL STRENGTHEN AND LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLING
COAST TONIGHT AND MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY. THE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE LOW PASSES MIDDAY SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT. JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE. NWLY FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TO 15 KT OR SO. SCA GUSTS TO 20 KT
CURRENTLY LOOK TO WAIT UNTIL MONDAY MORNING...THOUGH THEY COULD
ARRIVE WITH THE COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. LATER SHIFTS WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THAT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS...WITH SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE AT TIMES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO PULL AWAY AND THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING WELL TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR CALVERT AND ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTIES UNTIL
6PM (CALVERT CAN BE CANCELED EARLIER) FOR ONGOING MINOR FLOODING.
THE DEPARTURE AT BALTIMORE/FT MCHENRY HAS REMAINED AT 1.4FT. A
1.6FT DEPARTURE WOULD BE REQUIRED TO HIT THE MINOR THRESHOLD OF
3.0FT.

DEPARTURES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...UP TO 1.5 FT ABOVE NORMAL...SO
MORE COUNTIES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE IN THE ADVISORY FOR THE HIGH
TIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DCZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ014-
     018.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ054.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...BAJ
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...BAJ/DFH
MARINE...BAJ/DFH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BAJ






000
FXUS61 KLWX 201858
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
258 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO TONIGHT. A SURFACE LOW OFF THE
GEORGIA COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST BY CAPE HATTERAS SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE IN MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 18Z...SFC RIDGE IS DRAPED WSW TO ENE ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE
AXIS OVER DC. AN ASSOCIATED ONSHORE FLOW (WITH A BIT OF A BAY
BREEZE) WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EVENING. A TROUGH IN ADVANCE OF A LOW
OFF THE GEORGIA COAST EXTENDS NORTHEAST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRESENT. THIS ACTIVITY
COULD APPROACH MD WATERS...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LOWER ST MARYS
AND EAST. LOW/MID CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE IN FROM THE EAST...PERHAPS
REACHING AS FAR WEST AS I-95.

OTHERWISE...CLEAR TONIGHT WITH VALLEY AND PIEDMONT FOG. GUIDANCE
IS SUGGESTING SOME FOG FOR THE METRO AREAS TOO...BUT THE
CLOUD/CLEAR LINE WILL DETERMINE THAT. MIN TEMPS MID TO UPR 50S
WEST OF BALT-WASH...LOW TO MID 60S FOR THE COASTAL LOWLANDS...NEAR
70F URBAN AND NEAR SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OFFSHORE AND THEN A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES DURING THE DAY AND CROSSES LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. FIVE PERCENT RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND FROM SPC ROUGHLY
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN TIMING DURING PEAK
HEATING. MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 80S (PERHAPS UPR 80S EAST OF I-95
IF MORNING CLOUDS CLEAR SOON ENOUGH) AND LIFTED INDICES FROM THE
GFS AROUND -2.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MONDAY WITH NWLY WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 MPH.
MAX TEMPS LOW TO MID 70S. CLOUDS CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY...SUNNY BY
THE AFTERNOON.

CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING
OVER THE AREA. MIN TEMPS COULD BE INTO THE MID 30S IN THE
ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS WHERE FROST IS POSSIBLE. MENTIONED THIS IN THE
HWO. OTHERWISE...MIN TEMPS LOW TO MID 40S...MID 50S NEAR SHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DEEP-LAYER RIDGING WILL ENTRENCH ITSELF OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES BEGINNING TUESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A
SEASONABLY COOL AND INITIALLY DRIER AIRMASS. BUT AS THE HIGH
MIGRATES TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK
AN ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS WHICH WILL LEAD TO GRADUALLY INCREASING
MOISTURE. THIS COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN BY THE
END OF THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS FROM
THE ATLANTIC.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK...BUT COULD REBOUND TO AROUND NORMAL LEVELS BY NEXT
WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AMIDST ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE COAST FROM GEORGIA. A COLD FRONT CROSSES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS BEST EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD HAVE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

NW FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...COULD GUST AROUND 20 KT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED VFR.

VFR LIKELY TUE-WED NIGHT...WINDS GENERALLY NE 10 KTS OR LESS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW FROM SFC HIGH RIDGE OVER THE AREA WITH A BAY
BREEZE THAT WILL ENDS THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF
GEORGIA WILL STRENGTHEN AND LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLING
COAST TONIGHT AND MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY. THE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE LOW PASSES MIDDAY SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT. JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE. NWLY FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TO 15 KT OR SO. SCA GUSTS TO 20 KT
CURRENTLY LOOK TO WAIT UNTIL MONDAY MORNING...THOUGH THEY COULD
ARRIVE WITH THE COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. LATER SHIFTS WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THAT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS...WITH SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE AT TIMES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO PULL AWAY AND THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING WELL TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR CALVERT AND ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTIES UNTIL
6PM (CALVERT CAN BE CANCELED EARLIER) FOR ONGOING MINOR FLOODING.
THE DEPARTURE AT BALTIMORE/FT MCHENRY HAS REMAINED AT 1.4FT. A
1.6FT DEPARTURE WOULD BE REQUIRED TO HIT THE MINOR THRESHOLD OF
3.0FT.

DEPARTURES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...UP TO 1.5 FT ABOVE NORMAL...SO
MORE COUNTIES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE IN THE ADVISORY FOR THE HIGH
TIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DCZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ014-
     018.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ054.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...BAJ
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...BAJ/DFH
MARINE...BAJ/DFH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BAJ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201818
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
218 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY AND LIFTS NORTH
OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ON SUNDAY. A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE...AND COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS...FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID MORNING UPDATE...HAVE TWEAKED SKY COVER AND POPS BASED UPON
LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS. MORE COULD COVER THAN EXPECTED
ON THE DELMARVA...AND INCREASED POPS A BIT ACROSS THE EXTREME SE
BASED UPON LATEST RADAR. RADAR DATA HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN A
WEAKENING TREND WITH OFFSHORE SHOWERS AS THEY APPROACH THE COAST.
AT THIS POINT...EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE...AND HAVE ONLY MADE
MODEST CHANGES TO POPS AS A RESULT. FORECAST MAX TEMPS LOOK
GOOD...ALTHO MAY HAVE TO TWEAK MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE E/SE...IF
CLOUD COVER PERSISTS OR THICKER CLOUDS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THAT
SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST.

EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION...SFC HIGH PRESSURE (CENTERED OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST) WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE LOCAL AREA TODAY.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SE COAST. THE
RESULTANT EASTERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS TODAY...WHILE WESTERN AREAS WILL ENJOY A
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. HIGH RES MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN KEEPING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS (20-25%) ACROSS FAR SERN
AREAS TODAY...INCLUDING THE COASTAL WATERS. DRY ELSEWHERE. AS FAR
AS TEMPERATURES...PLEASANT READINGS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 70S TO LOW 80S (HIGHEST INLAND).

FOR TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT NE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WEDGED IN-BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE
NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW WILL LIMIT SMALL PCPN
CHANCES (~20%) TO FAR SERN AREAS ONCE AGAIN. PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR WEST TO MOSTLY CLOUDY EAST. LOWS IN THE MID 50S WEST TO THE
LOW/MID 60S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE A DRY AND WARM DAY SUNDAY
AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. MEANWHILE...
THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW QUICKLY MOVES NORTH WELL OFF THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST. WINDS BECOMING W-SW IN ADDITION TO 850 TEMPS
CLIMBING TO AROUND 17C SUNDAY AFTN SHOULD BOOST MAX TEMPS INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.

THE COLD FRONT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
EVENING. THE MODELS SHOW A VERY NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE WITH THE
FRONT AS THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS SWEEP ACROSS PA. WITH THE BEST
FORCING TO THE NORTH AND LIMITED MOISTURE...HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. AFTER THE FRONT
CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE FA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE REGION WITH MUCH DRIER AIR...AND MAX TEMPS
TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 75-80 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND UNEVENTFUL WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PARKS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS MEANS A CONTINUATION OF
NE TO E WINDS WHICH MAY HAVE SOME MARINE IMPLICATIONS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK.

A SURFACE TROUGH MAY DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK. MODELS INDICATE LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH SOME
OF IT SPREADING INTO OUR AREA. SLGT CHC SHOWERS ARE IN THE FCST ERN
VA/NE NC LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AN ENE WIND...WITH SPEEDS OF 8-20KT
ALONG THE COAST...AND 5-10KT INLAND. CONDS ARE GENERALLY VFR
ACROSS THE CWA BUT TAF SITES ALONG THE COAST...ORF/ECG/PHF...HAVE
SHOWN SOME TEMPO MVFR CIGS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMES IN OFF THE
WATER. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE TREND THRU THE AFTN/EVENING AS THE
LOW GRADUALLY MOVES UP THE COAST.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA OVER COASTAL SE VA/NE NC TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AS THE LOW TRACKS OFF THE COAST. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC -SHRA AND/OR
-TSRA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND PREVAILS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...A SCA WAS ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW
POINT COMFORT TO CAPE HENRY UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. A SCA IS
ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND
THROUGH 4PM THIS AFTERNOON...AND FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.
OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATE SCA WINDS ~20KT ENE HAVE CONTINUED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND. THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON. WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FT WILL OCCUR IN THE LOWER BAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN A 10-15KT ENE WIND. THE PERSISTENCE OF THE ONSHORE
WIND WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 5-6FT OUT NEAR 20NM. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NNE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN ALLOWING THE
WIND TO SHIFT TO N-NE AND DIMINISH TO AOB 10KT. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
~5FT AND HENCE THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE RACES OFF TO THE NE SUNDAY...WITH THE WIND EVENTUALLY
BECOMING SW BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A NNE WIND SHOULD
CONTINUE EARLY SUNDAY OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS...SO THE SCA FOR
THIS PARTICULAR ZONE HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE FLOW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/WRS
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...JAO
AVIATION...AJZ/JEF
MARINE...AJZ/JEF







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201818
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
218 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY AND LIFTS NORTH
OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ON SUNDAY. A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE...AND COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS...FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID MORNING UPDATE...HAVE TWEAKED SKY COVER AND POPS BASED UPON
LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS. MORE COULD COVER THAN EXPECTED
ON THE DELMARVA...AND INCREASED POPS A BIT ACROSS THE EXTREME SE
BASED UPON LATEST RADAR. RADAR DATA HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN A
WEAKENING TREND WITH OFFSHORE SHOWERS AS THEY APPROACH THE COAST.
AT THIS POINT...EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE...AND HAVE ONLY MADE
MODEST CHANGES TO POPS AS A RESULT. FORECAST MAX TEMPS LOOK
GOOD...ALTHO MAY HAVE TO TWEAK MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE E/SE...IF
CLOUD COVER PERSISTS OR THICKER CLOUDS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THAT
SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST.

EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION...SFC HIGH PRESSURE (CENTERED OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST) WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE LOCAL AREA TODAY.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SE COAST. THE
RESULTANT EASTERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS TODAY...WHILE WESTERN AREAS WILL ENJOY A
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. HIGH RES MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN KEEPING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS (20-25%) ACROSS FAR SERN
AREAS TODAY...INCLUDING THE COASTAL WATERS. DRY ELSEWHERE. AS FAR
AS TEMPERATURES...PLEASANT READINGS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 70S TO LOW 80S (HIGHEST INLAND).

FOR TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT NE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WEDGED IN-BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE
NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW WILL LIMIT SMALL PCPN
CHANCES (~20%) TO FAR SERN AREAS ONCE AGAIN. PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR WEST TO MOSTLY CLOUDY EAST. LOWS IN THE MID 50S WEST TO THE
LOW/MID 60S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE A DRY AND WARM DAY SUNDAY
AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. MEANWHILE...
THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW QUICKLY MOVES NORTH WELL OFF THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST. WINDS BECOMING W-SW IN ADDITION TO 850 TEMPS
CLIMBING TO AROUND 17C SUNDAY AFTN SHOULD BOOST MAX TEMPS INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.

THE COLD FRONT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
EVENING. THE MODELS SHOW A VERY NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE WITH THE
FRONT AS THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS SWEEP ACROSS PA. WITH THE BEST
FORCING TO THE NORTH AND LIMITED MOISTURE...HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. AFTER THE FRONT
CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE FA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE REGION WITH MUCH DRIER AIR...AND MAX TEMPS
TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 75-80 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND UNEVENTFUL WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PARKS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS MEANS A CONTINUATION OF
NE TO E WINDS WHICH MAY HAVE SOME MARINE IMPLICATIONS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK.

A SURFACE TROUGH MAY DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK. MODELS INDICATE LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH SOME
OF IT SPREADING INTO OUR AREA. SLGT CHC SHOWERS ARE IN THE FCST ERN
VA/NE NC LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AN ENE WIND...WITH SPEEDS OF 8-20KT
ALONG THE COAST...AND 5-10KT INLAND. CONDS ARE GENERALLY VFR
ACROSS THE CWA BUT TAF SITES ALONG THE COAST...ORF/ECG/PHF...HAVE
SHOWN SOME TEMPO MVFR CIGS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMES IN OFF THE
WATER. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE TREND THRU THE AFTN/EVENING AS THE
LOW GRADUALLY MOVES UP THE COAST.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA OVER COASTAL SE VA/NE NC TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AS THE LOW TRACKS OFF THE COAST. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC -SHRA AND/OR
-TSRA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND PREVAILS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...A SCA WAS ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW
POINT COMFORT TO CAPE HENRY UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. A SCA IS
ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND
THROUGH 4PM THIS AFTERNOON...AND FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.
OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATE SCA WINDS ~20KT ENE HAVE CONTINUED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND. THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON. WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FT WILL OCCUR IN THE LOWER BAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN A 10-15KT ENE WIND. THE PERSISTENCE OF THE ONSHORE
WIND WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 5-6FT OUT NEAR 20NM. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NNE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN ALLOWING THE
WIND TO SHIFT TO N-NE AND DIMINISH TO AOB 10KT. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
~5FT AND HENCE THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE RACES OFF TO THE NE SUNDAY...WITH THE WIND EVENTUALLY
BECOMING SW BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A NNE WIND SHOULD
CONTINUE EARLY SUNDAY OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS...SO THE SCA FOR
THIS PARTICULAR ZONE HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE FLOW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/WRS
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...JAO
AVIATION...AJZ/JEF
MARINE...AJZ/JEF






000
FXUS61 KRNK 201744
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
144 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS TODAY. A PIECE OF THIS HIGH WILL BREAK OFF OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FROM
THE WEST...AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL COVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 135 PM EDT SATURDAY...
INCREASED CLOUD COVER IN THE NORTHWEST TO ALLOW FOR SOME MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY ALTOCUMULUS TO DRIFT EAST OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY. MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

AS OF 915 AM EDT SATURDAY...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN CLOUD COVER AS LOW CLOUDS ARE
ALREADY STARTING TO MIX OUT THIS MORNING. MODIFIED TEMPERATURES
FOR THE LATEST OBS AND MODEL TRENDS FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. ENJOY YOUR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...

RADAR PICKING UP SOME PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING
FROM CARROLL COUNTY INTO THE NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS.
SEVERAL OBSERVATIONS ALSO REPORTING PATCHY FOG. SATELLITE PICTURES
SHOWED A BAND OF CLOUDS ALONG THE APPALACHIANS FROM EASTERN NEW
YORK INTO NORTHEAST GEORGIA. THESE CLOUDS ALIGNS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGED DOWN THE APPALACHIANS.

BUFKIT DATA HAD FOG AND DRIZZLE ENDING AND CLOUDS BECOMING
SCATTERED IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH UPSLOPE COMPONENT
ENDING BY LATE MORNING. LITTLE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL BE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE SWIRL OF CLOUDS AROUND THIS LOW MAY
REACH THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTY WARNING AREA TONIGHT. BETWEEN THE
NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS AROUND THE COASTAL LOW AND THE SOUTHWEST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...LOOKING FOR LITTLE TO NO LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROP BELOW ONE INCH
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...

MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS TAKING A GULF
STREAM DISTURBANCE ALONG THE NC/VA SHORE SUNDAY MORNING TO OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THIS DISTURBANCE OUT OF THE
WAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
THIS STRONG FAST-MOVING FALL FRONT WILL BE PUSHED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TRACKING OVER THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. THIS FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...EXITING THE PIEDMONT DURING THE EARLY EVENING. THERE IS
A POSSIBILITY THIS FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS A
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IS ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE TROUGH. ONCE
THIS SHORT WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IN THE OHIO
VALLEY...ANY CONVECTION WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA. THIS SHORT
WAVE WILL THEN USE ANY AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO BRING RAIN/DRIZZLE TO
WESTERN SLOPES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT SUNDAY. WINDS
ALOFT WILL ALREADY BE OUT OF THE WEST...PLACING MOST OF THE RAIN
ALONG WESTERN SLOPES...UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH /0.25/. AS THESE
STORMS TRACK EAST...THEY WILL BE MOVING INTO DRIER AIR AND ALONG
WITH WESTERLY FLOW...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE REDUCED TO A TENTH OF
AN INCH /0.10/. THE GFS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE RAINFALL EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE DESPITE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. ALL MODELS ARE HINTING AT A
BRIEF BACKING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST. THESE BACKING
WINDS AND A LEE TROUGH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CARRY ISOLATED SHOWERS
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. JET DYNAMIC AND MODEST INSTABILITIES MAY
PRODUCE A FEW STRONG STORMS IN THE WEST...BUT WEST WIND AND STORMS
ENTERING RELATIVELY DRY AIR...SEVERE POTENTIAL IS VERY VERY LOW.

ONCE THE FRONT TRACKS EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING...AND THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTS TO THE EAST COAST MONDAY MORNING...COOLER
DRIER AIR WILL USHER IN THE AUTUMN SEASON. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SUNDAY TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80F
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO MID TO UPPER 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPEND ON RAINFALL TIMING. BEHIND THE
FRONT...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10F COOLER MONDAY
AFTERNOON COMPARED TO SUNDAY. ALSO ON MONDAY...PRESSURE RISES WILL
BRING BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
HIGHER RIDGES OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE COLDEST OF THE AIR ARRIVES
MONDAY NIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION...MONDAY NIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 40S...POSSIBLY THE UPPER 30S IN DEEP
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AS WINDS DECOUPLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE FORECAST REGION ON
TUESDAY...STARTING THE DAY CENTERED OVER THE MID OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
THE HIGH WILL MAINTAIN DRY NORTHERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA
THAT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH
HIGHS HOLDING IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. THE DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL
ALSO RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

WE CAN EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS FOR THE EARLY HALF OF WEDNESDAY...
ALTHOUGH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM EASTERN
CANADA...CROSSING NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC DURING THE
EVENING...WHERE THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO STALL AS IT RUNS INTO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE EASTERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES OFFSHORE...DRAWING AN INCREASING AMOUNT OF MARINE AIR INTO
OUR REGION. AS SUCH...EXPECT INCREASED STRATUS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE. MARINE AIR WILL ALSO
SUPPORT SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT SATURDAY...

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. THIS
WILL BRING MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY TO KBCB/KDAN AND LYH AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LIFR FOG IS POSSIBLE IN FOR KLWB SINCE SEVERAL HOURS OF
CLEAR SKY ARE EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET.

RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL DISSIPATE SUNDAY MORNING AFTER DAYBREAK.
UPSTREAM TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DURING THE PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS DURING THE TAF PERIOD.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING DRIER AIR TO THE REGION FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK PROMOTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. RIVER VALLEY FOG
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AT NIGHT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...AMS/KK




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201353
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
953 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY AND LIFTS NORTH
OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ON SUNDAY. A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE...AND COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS...FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID MORNING UPDATE...HAVE TWEAKED SKY COVER AND POPS BASED UPON
LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS. MORE COULD COVER THAN EXPECTED
ON THE DELMARVA...AND INCREASED POPS A BIT ACROSS THE EXTREME SE
BASED UPON LATEST RADAR. RADAR DATA HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN A
WEAKENING TREND WITH OFFSHORE SHOWERS AS THEY APPROACH THE COAST.
AT THIS POINT...EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE...AND HAVE ONLY MADE
MODEST CHANGES TO POPS AS A RESULT. FORECAST MAX TEMPS LOOK
GOOD...ALTHO MAY HAVE TO TWEAK MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE E/SE...IF
CLOUD COVER PERSISTS OR THICKER CLOUDS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THAT
SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST.

EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION...SFC HIGH PRESSURE (CENTERED OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST) WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE LOCAL AREA TODAY.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SE COAST. THE
RESULTANT EASTERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS TODAY...WHILE WESTERN AREAS WILL ENJOY A
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. HIGH RES MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN KEEPING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS (20-25%) ACROSS FAR SERN
AREAS TODAY...INCLUDING THE COASTAL WATERS. DRY ELSEWHERE. AS FAR
AS TEMPERATURES...PLEASANT READINGS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 70S TO LOW 80S (HIGHEST INLAND).

FOR TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT NE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WEDGED IN-BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE
NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW WILL LIMIT SMALL PCPN
CHANCES (~20%) TO FAR SERN AREAS ONCE AGAIN. PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR WEST TO MOSTLY CLOUDY EAST. LOWS IN THE MID 50S WEST TO THE
LOW/MID 60S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE A DRY AND WARM DAY SUNDAY
AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. MEANWHILE...
THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW QUICKLY MOVES NORTH WELL OFF THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST. WINDS BECOMING W-SW IN ADDITION TO 850 TEMPS
CLIMBING TO AROUND 17C SUNDAY AFTN SHOULD BOOST MAX TEMPS INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.

THE COLD FRONT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
EVENING. THE MODELS SHOW A VERY NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE WITH THE
FRONT AS THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS SWEEP ACROSS PA. WITH THE BEST
FORCING TO THE NORTH AND LIMITED MOISTURE...HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. AFTER THE FRONT
CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE FA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE REGION WITH MUCH DRIER AIR...AND MAX TEMPS
TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 75-80 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND UNEVENTFUL WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PARKS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS MEANS A CONTINUATION OF
NE TO E WINDS WHICH MAY HAVE SOME MARINE IMPLICATIONS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK.

A SURFACE TROUGH MAY DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK. MODELS INDICATE LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH SOME
OF IT SPREADING INTO OUR AREA. SLGT CHC SHOWERS ARE IN THE FCST ERN
VA/NE NC LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AN ENE WIND...WITH SPEEDS OF 8-12KT
ALONG THE COAST...AND 5-8KT INLAND. THE SKY SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR
TO BEGIN THE DAY...WITH 5K FT CIGS POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTERNOON
OVER COASTAL SE VA/NE NC. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT...AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
SUNDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA OVER COASTAL SE VA/NE NC
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS THE LOW TRACKS OFF THE COAST. A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC
-SHRA AND/OR -TSRA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AND PREVAILS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...A SCA WAS ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW
POINT COMFORT TO CAPE HENRY UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. A SCA IS
ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND
THROUGH 4PM THIS AFTERNOON...AND FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.
OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATE SCA WINDS ~20KT ENE HAVE CONTINUED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND. THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON. WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FT WILL OCCUR IN THE LOWER BAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN A 10-15KT ENE WIND. THE PERSISTENCE OF THE ONSHORE
WIND WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 5-6FT OUT NEAR 20NM. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NNE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN ALLOWING THE
WIND TO SHIFT TO N-NE AND DIMINISH TO AOB 10KT. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
~5FT AND HENCE THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE RACES OFF TO THE NE SUNDAY...WITH THE WIND EVENTUALLY
BECOMING SW BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A NNE WIND SHOULD
CONTINUE EARLY SUNDAY OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS...SO THE SCA FOR
THIS PARTICULAR ZONE HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE FLOW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ632>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/WRS
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...JAO
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ/JEF






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201353
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
953 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY AND LIFTS NORTH
OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ON SUNDAY. A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE...AND COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS...FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID MORNING UPDATE...HAVE TWEAKED SKY COVER AND POPS BASED UPON
LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS. MORE COULD COVER THAN EXPECTED
ON THE DELMARVA...AND INCREASED POPS A BIT ACROSS THE EXTREME SE
BASED UPON LATEST RADAR. RADAR DATA HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN A
WEAKENING TREND WITH OFFSHORE SHOWERS AS THEY APPROACH THE COAST.
AT THIS POINT...EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE...AND HAVE ONLY MADE
MODEST CHANGES TO POPS AS A RESULT. FORECAST MAX TEMPS LOOK
GOOD...ALTHO MAY HAVE TO TWEAK MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE E/SE...IF
CLOUD COVER PERSISTS OR THICKER CLOUDS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THAT
SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST.

EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION...SFC HIGH PRESSURE (CENTERED OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST) WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE LOCAL AREA TODAY.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SE COAST. THE
RESULTANT EASTERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS TODAY...WHILE WESTERN AREAS WILL ENJOY A
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. HIGH RES MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN KEEPING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS (20-25%) ACROSS FAR SERN
AREAS TODAY...INCLUDING THE COASTAL WATERS. DRY ELSEWHERE. AS FAR
AS TEMPERATURES...PLEASANT READINGS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 70S TO LOW 80S (HIGHEST INLAND).

FOR TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT NE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WEDGED IN-BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE
NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW WILL LIMIT SMALL PCPN
CHANCES (~20%) TO FAR SERN AREAS ONCE AGAIN. PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR WEST TO MOSTLY CLOUDY EAST. LOWS IN THE MID 50S WEST TO THE
LOW/MID 60S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE A DRY AND WARM DAY SUNDAY
AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. MEANWHILE...
THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW QUICKLY MOVES NORTH WELL OFF THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST. WINDS BECOMING W-SW IN ADDITION TO 850 TEMPS
CLIMBING TO AROUND 17C SUNDAY AFTN SHOULD BOOST MAX TEMPS INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.

THE COLD FRONT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
EVENING. THE MODELS SHOW A VERY NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE WITH THE
FRONT AS THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS SWEEP ACROSS PA. WITH THE BEST
FORCING TO THE NORTH AND LIMITED MOISTURE...HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. AFTER THE FRONT
CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE FA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE REGION WITH MUCH DRIER AIR...AND MAX TEMPS
TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 75-80 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND UNEVENTFUL WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PARKS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS MEANS A CONTINUATION OF
NE TO E WINDS WHICH MAY HAVE SOME MARINE IMPLICATIONS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK.

A SURFACE TROUGH MAY DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK. MODELS INDICATE LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH SOME
OF IT SPREADING INTO OUR AREA. SLGT CHC SHOWERS ARE IN THE FCST ERN
VA/NE NC LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AN ENE WIND...WITH SPEEDS OF 8-12KT
ALONG THE COAST...AND 5-8KT INLAND. THE SKY SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR
TO BEGIN THE DAY...WITH 5K FT CIGS POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTERNOON
OVER COASTAL SE VA/NE NC. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT...AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
SUNDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA OVER COASTAL SE VA/NE NC
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS THE LOW TRACKS OFF THE COAST. A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC
-SHRA AND/OR -TSRA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AND PREVAILS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...A SCA WAS ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW
POINT COMFORT TO CAPE HENRY UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. A SCA IS
ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND
THROUGH 4PM THIS AFTERNOON...AND FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.
OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATE SCA WINDS ~20KT ENE HAVE CONTINUED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND. THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON. WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FT WILL OCCUR IN THE LOWER BAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN A 10-15KT ENE WIND. THE PERSISTENCE OF THE ONSHORE
WIND WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 5-6FT OUT NEAR 20NM. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NNE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN ALLOWING THE
WIND TO SHIFT TO N-NE AND DIMINISH TO AOB 10KT. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
~5FT AND HENCE THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE RACES OFF TO THE NE SUNDAY...WITH THE WIND EVENTUALLY
BECOMING SW BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A NNE WIND SHOULD
CONTINUE EARLY SUNDAY OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS...SO THE SCA FOR
THIS PARTICULAR ZONE HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE FLOW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ632>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/WRS
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...JAO
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ/JEF







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201345
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
945 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY AND LIFTS NORTH
OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ON SUNDAY. A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING
FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE (CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST) WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED OVER THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE SE COAST. THE RESULTANT EASTERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE
A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS EASTERN AREAS TODAY...WHILE
WESTERN AREAS WILL ENJOY A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. HIGH RES
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
(20-25%) ACROSS FAR SERN AREAS TODAY...INCLUDING THE COASTAL WATERS.
DRY ELSEWHERE. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...PLEASANT READINGS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 70S TO LOW 80S
(HIGHEST INLAND).

FOR TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT NE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WEDGED IN-BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE
NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW WILL LIMIT SMALL PCPN
CHANCES (~20%) TO FAR SERN AREAS ONCE AGAIN. PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR WEST TO MOSTLY CLOUDY EAST. LOWS IN THE MID 50S WEST TO THE
LOW/MID 60S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE A DRY AND WARM DAY SUNDAY
AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. MEANWHILE...
THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW QUICKLY MOVES NORTH WELL OFF THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST. WINDS BECOMING W-SW IN ADDITION TO 850 TEMPS
CLIMBING TO AROUND 17C SUNDAY AFTN SHOULD BOOST MAX TEMPS INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.

THE COLD FRONT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
EVENING. THE MODELS SHOW A VERY NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE WITH THE
FRONT AS THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS SWEEP ACROSS PA. WITH THE BEST
FORCING TO THE NORTH AND LIMITED MOISTURE...HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. AFTER THE FRONT
CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE FA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE REGION WITH MUCH DRIER AIR...AND MAX TEMPS
TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 75-80 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND UNEVENTFUL WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PARKS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS MEANS A CONTINUATION OF
NE TO E WINDS WHICH MAY HAVE SOME MARINE IMPLICATIONS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK.

A SURFACE TROUGH MAY DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK. MODELS INDICATE LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH SOME
OF IT SPREADING INTO OUR AREA. SLGT CHC SHOWERS ARE IN THE FCST ERN
VA/NE NC LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AN ENE WIND...WITH SPEEDS OF 8-12KT
ALONG THE COAST...AND 5-8KT INLAND. THE SKY SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR
TO BEGIN THE DAY...WITH 5K FT CIGS POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTERNOON
OVER COASTAL SE VA/NE NC. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT...AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
SUNDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA OVER COASTAL SE VA/NE NC
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS THE LOW TRACKS OFF THE COAST. A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC
-SHRA AND/OR -TSRA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AND PREVAILS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...A SCA WAS ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW
POINT COMFORT TO CAPE HENRY UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. A SCA IS
ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND
THROUGH 4PM THIS AFTERNOON...AND FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.
OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATE SCA WINDS ~20KT ENE HAVE CONTINUED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND. THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON. WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FT WILL OCCUR IN THE LOWER BAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN A 10-15KT ENE WIND. THE PERSISTENCE OF THE ONSHORE
WIND WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 5-6FT OUT NEAR 20NM. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NNE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN ALLOWING THE
WIND TO SHIFT TO N-NE AND DIMINISH TO AOB 10KT. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
~5FT AND HENCE THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE RACES OFF TO THE NE SUNDAY...WITH THE WIND EVENTUALLY
BECOMING SW BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A NNE WIND SHOULD
CONTINUE EARLY SUNDAY OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS...SO THE SCA FOR
THIS PARTICULAR ZONE HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE FLOW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ632>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...JAO
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ/JEF






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201345
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
945 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY AND LIFTS NORTH
OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ON SUNDAY. A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING
FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE (CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST) WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED OVER THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE SE COAST. THE RESULTANT EASTERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE
A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS EASTERN AREAS TODAY...WHILE
WESTERN AREAS WILL ENJOY A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. HIGH RES
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
(20-25%) ACROSS FAR SERN AREAS TODAY...INCLUDING THE COASTAL WATERS.
DRY ELSEWHERE. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...PLEASANT READINGS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 70S TO LOW 80S
(HIGHEST INLAND).

FOR TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT NE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WEDGED IN-BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE
NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW WILL LIMIT SMALL PCPN
CHANCES (~20%) TO FAR SERN AREAS ONCE AGAIN. PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR WEST TO MOSTLY CLOUDY EAST. LOWS IN THE MID 50S WEST TO THE
LOW/MID 60S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE A DRY AND WARM DAY SUNDAY
AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. MEANWHILE...
THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW QUICKLY MOVES NORTH WELL OFF THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST. WINDS BECOMING W-SW IN ADDITION TO 850 TEMPS
CLIMBING TO AROUND 17C SUNDAY AFTN SHOULD BOOST MAX TEMPS INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.

THE COLD FRONT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
EVENING. THE MODELS SHOW A VERY NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE WITH THE
FRONT AS THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS SWEEP ACROSS PA. WITH THE BEST
FORCING TO THE NORTH AND LIMITED MOISTURE...HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. AFTER THE FRONT
CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE FA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE REGION WITH MUCH DRIER AIR...AND MAX TEMPS
TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 75-80 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND UNEVENTFUL WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PARKS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS MEANS A CONTINUATION OF
NE TO E WINDS WHICH MAY HAVE SOME MARINE IMPLICATIONS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK.

A SURFACE TROUGH MAY DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK. MODELS INDICATE LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH SOME
OF IT SPREADING INTO OUR AREA. SLGT CHC SHOWERS ARE IN THE FCST ERN
VA/NE NC LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AN ENE WIND...WITH SPEEDS OF 8-12KT
ALONG THE COAST...AND 5-8KT INLAND. THE SKY SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR
TO BEGIN THE DAY...WITH 5K FT CIGS POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTERNOON
OVER COASTAL SE VA/NE NC. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT...AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
SUNDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA OVER COASTAL SE VA/NE NC
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS THE LOW TRACKS OFF THE COAST. A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC
-SHRA AND/OR -TSRA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AND PREVAILS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...A SCA WAS ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW
POINT COMFORT TO CAPE HENRY UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. A SCA IS
ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND
THROUGH 4PM THIS AFTERNOON...AND FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.
OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATE SCA WINDS ~20KT ENE HAVE CONTINUED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND. THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON. WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FT WILL OCCUR IN THE LOWER BAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN A 10-15KT ENE WIND. THE PERSISTENCE OF THE ONSHORE
WIND WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 5-6FT OUT NEAR 20NM. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NNE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN ALLOWING THE
WIND TO SHIFT TO N-NE AND DIMINISH TO AOB 10KT. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
~5FT AND HENCE THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE RACES OFF TO THE NE SUNDAY...WITH THE WIND EVENTUALLY
BECOMING SW BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A NNE WIND SHOULD
CONTINUE EARLY SUNDAY OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS...SO THE SCA FOR
THIS PARTICULAR ZONE HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE FLOW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ632>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...JAO
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ/JEF







000
FXUS61 KLWX 201335
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
935 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
EXTEND SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO TONIGHT. A SURFACE
LOW WILL FORM OFF THE GEORGIA COAST TODAY AND PASS NORTHEAST BY
CAPE HATTERAS SUNDAY. A SECOND LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE MID- ATLANTIC SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. CONTINENTAL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN MONDAY AND WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 13Z...LOW CLOUDS/FOG HAVE LIFTED AND A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS
EXPECTED. EAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE AS A SFC RIDGE
FROM THE HIGH OFF NEW ENGLAND PERSISTS IN SPITE OF THE HIGH
PUSHING OUT TO SEA. LIGHT MIXING WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS GENERALLY
AROUND 80F AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WILL PRECEDE THE COLD FRONT...BUT MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE SOUTH
WILL BE MEAGER. STILL...THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FORCING THE COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE PRETTY STRONG BY THE MODELS AND THAT
SHOULD IN TURN FORCE NARROW BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
GUSTY OR PERHAPS SPOTTY DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS WHERE ADDED TERRAIN FORCING COULD RESULT IN BRIEFLY
MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY WANE AS THEY PUSH EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND TOWARDS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY DURING THE
EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE WEEK AHEAD SHOULD BE QUIET AND COOL...AS A LARGE AREA OF
HIPRES BLDS OVER THE ERN CONUS. MAY BE A LTL BIT BRZY MON DUE TO
CAA/H5 TROF AXIS DROPPING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AFTER
THAT...UPR HGTS RISE BUT AREA WL REMAIN ON THE ERN THEN SRN SIDE
OF THE SFC RDG. CONSEQUENCES WL BE CNDN FLOW TO BE REPLACED BY
MARINE FLOW BY WED. CUD BE DEALING W/ A LTL MORE CLDCVR FOR THE
2ND HALF OF THE WK... SPCLY E OF I-95. MAXT LWR-MID 70S THRUT THE
PD. MIN-T 40S TO LWR/MID 50S...WITH OVNGT TEMPS MODERATING SLGTLY
DUE TO WATER TEMPS...WHICH ARE STILL IN THE LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW TODAY WITH VFR CONDS. A COLD FRONT CROSSES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF
WHICH COULD HAVE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

VFR MON-WED UNDER HIPRES.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.

NW FLOW SHUD PROVIDE A GOOD MIXED PROFILE MON. MAY HV SOME SCA GUSTS
AT THAT TIME. BYD THAT...HIPRES WL BE BLDG ATOP MARINE AREA
RESULTING IN WNDS BECOMING LIGHTER. FLOW SHUD BE VEERING ELY BY WED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR CALVERT AND ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTIES TODAY.
ANOMALIES CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE AND
SENSITIVE LOCATIONS FROM SOLOMONS ISLAND TO ANNAPOLIS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH MINOR COASTAL FLOOD THRESHOLDS.

DEPARTURES SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED...AS HIGH AS 1.5 FT ABOVE
NORMAL...WHICH MAY REQUIRE MORE COUNTIES TO BE IN THE ADVISORY FOR
THE HIGH TIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ014-
     018.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/CAS
NEAR TERM...BAJ/CAS
SHORT TERM...BAJ/CAS
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...BAJ/CAS/HTS
MARINE...BAJ/CAS/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BAJ







000
FXUS61 KLWX 201335
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
935 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
EXTEND SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO TONIGHT. A SURFACE
LOW WILL FORM OFF THE GEORGIA COAST TODAY AND PASS NORTHEAST BY
CAPE HATTERAS SUNDAY. A SECOND LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE MID- ATLANTIC SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. CONTINENTAL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN MONDAY AND WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 13Z...LOW CLOUDS/FOG HAVE LIFTED AND A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS
EXPECTED. EAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE AS A SFC RIDGE
FROM THE HIGH OFF NEW ENGLAND PERSISTS IN SPITE OF THE HIGH
PUSHING OUT TO SEA. LIGHT MIXING WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS GENERALLY
AROUND 80F AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WILL PRECEDE THE COLD FRONT...BUT MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE SOUTH
WILL BE MEAGER. STILL...THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FORCING THE COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE PRETTY STRONG BY THE MODELS AND THAT
SHOULD IN TURN FORCE NARROW BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
GUSTY OR PERHAPS SPOTTY DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS WHERE ADDED TERRAIN FORCING COULD RESULT IN BRIEFLY
MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY WANE AS THEY PUSH EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND TOWARDS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY DURING THE
EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE WEEK AHEAD SHOULD BE QUIET AND COOL...AS A LARGE AREA OF
HIPRES BLDS OVER THE ERN CONUS. MAY BE A LTL BIT BRZY MON DUE TO
CAA/H5 TROF AXIS DROPPING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AFTER
THAT...UPR HGTS RISE BUT AREA WL REMAIN ON THE ERN THEN SRN SIDE
OF THE SFC RDG. CONSEQUENCES WL BE CNDN FLOW TO BE REPLACED BY
MARINE FLOW BY WED. CUD BE DEALING W/ A LTL MORE CLDCVR FOR THE
2ND HALF OF THE WK... SPCLY E OF I-95. MAXT LWR-MID 70S THRUT THE
PD. MIN-T 40S TO LWR/MID 50S...WITH OVNGT TEMPS MODERATING SLGTLY
DUE TO WATER TEMPS...WHICH ARE STILL IN THE LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW TODAY WITH VFR CONDS. A COLD FRONT CROSSES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF
WHICH COULD HAVE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

VFR MON-WED UNDER HIPRES.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.

NW FLOW SHUD PROVIDE A GOOD MIXED PROFILE MON. MAY HV SOME SCA GUSTS
AT THAT TIME. BYD THAT...HIPRES WL BE BLDG ATOP MARINE AREA
RESULTING IN WNDS BECOMING LIGHTER. FLOW SHUD BE VEERING ELY BY WED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR CALVERT AND ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTIES TODAY.
ANOMALIES CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE AND
SENSITIVE LOCATIONS FROM SOLOMONS ISLAND TO ANNAPOLIS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH MINOR COASTAL FLOOD THRESHOLDS.

DEPARTURES SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED...AS HIGH AS 1.5 FT ABOVE
NORMAL...WHICH MAY REQUIRE MORE COUNTIES TO BE IN THE ADVISORY FOR
THE HIGH TIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ014-
     018.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/CAS
NEAR TERM...BAJ/CAS
SHORT TERM...BAJ/CAS
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...BAJ/CAS/HTS
MARINE...BAJ/CAS/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BAJ








000
FXUS61 KRNK 201316
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
916 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS TODAY. A PIECE OF THIS HIGH WILL BREAK OFF OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FROM
THE WEST...AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL COVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 915 AM EDT SATURDAY...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN CLOUD COVER AS LOW CLOUDS ARE
ALREADY STARTING TO MIX OUT THIS MORNING. MODIFIED TEMPERATURES
FOR THE LATEST OBS AND MODEL TRENDS FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. ENJOY YOUR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...

RADAR PICKING UP SOME PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING
FROM CARROLL COUNTY INTO THE NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS.
SEVERAL OBSERVATIONS ALSO REPORTING PATCHY FOG. SATELLITE PICTURES
SHOWED A BAND OF CLOUDS ALONG THE APPALACHIANS FROM EASTERN NEW
YORK INTO NORTHEAST GEORGIA. THESE CLOUDS ALIGNS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGED DOWN THE APPALACHIANS.

BUFKIT DATA HAD FOG AND DRIZZLE ENDING AND CLOUDS BECOMING
SCATTERED IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH UPSLOPE COMPONENT
ENDING BY LATE MORNING. LITTLE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL BE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE SWIRL OF CLOUDS AROUND THIS LOW MAY
REACH THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTY WARNING AREA TONIGHT. BETWEEN THE
NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS AROUND THE COASTAL LOW AND THE SOUTHWEST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...LOOKING FOR LITTLE TO NO LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROP BELOW ONE INCH
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...

MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS TAKING A GULF
STREAM DISTURBANCE ALONG THE NC/VA SHORE SUNDAY MORNING TO OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THIS DISTURBANCE OUT OF THE
WAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
THIS STRONG FAST-MOVING FALL FRONT WILL BE PUSHED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TRACKING OVER THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. THIS FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...EXITING THE PIEDMONT DURING THE EARLY EVENING. THERE IS
A POSSIBILITY THIS FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS A
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IS ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE TROUGH. ONCE
THIS SHORT WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IN THE OHIO
VALLEY...ANY CONVECTION WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA. THIS SHORT
WAVE WILL THEN USE ANY AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO BRING RAIN/DRIZZLE TO
WESTERN SLOPES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT SUNDAY. WINDS
ALOFT WILL ALREADY BE OUT OF THE WEST...PLACING MOST OF THE RAIN
ALONG WESTERN SLOPES...UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH /0.25/. AS THESE
STORMS TRACK EAST...THEY WILL BE MOVING INTO DRIER AIR AND ALONG
WITH WESTERLY FLOW...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE REDUCED TO A TENTH OF
AN INCH /0.10/. THE GFS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE RAINFALL EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE DESPITE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. ALL MODELS ARE HINTING AT A
BRIEF BACKING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST. THESE BACKING
WINDS AND A LEE TROUGH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CARRY ISOLATED SHOWERS
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. JET DYNAMIC AND MODEST INSTABILITIES MAY
PRODUCE A FEW STRONG STORMS IN THE WEST...BUT WEST WIND AND STORMS
ENTERING RELATIVELY DRY AIR...SEVERE POTENTIAL IS VERY VERY LOW.

ONCE THE FRONT TRACKS EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING...AND THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTS TO THE EAST COAST MONDAY MORNING...COOLER
DRIER AIR WILL USHER IN THE AUTUMN SEASON. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SUNDAY TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80F
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO MID TO UPPER 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPEND ON RAINFALL TIMING. BEHIND THE
FRONT...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10F COOLER MONDAY
AFTERNOON COMPARED TO SUNDAY. ALSO ON MONDAY...PRESSURE RISES WILL
BRING BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
HIGHER RIDGES OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE COLDEST OF THE AIR ARRIVES
MONDAY NIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION...MONDAY NIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 40S...POSSIBLY THE UPPER 30S IN DEEP
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AS WINDS DECOUPLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE FORECAST REGION ON
TUESDAY...STARTING THE DAY CENTERED OVER THE MID OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
THE HIGH WILL MAINTAIN DRY NORTHERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA
THAT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH
HIGHS HOLDING IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. THE DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL
ALSO RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

WE CAN EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS FOR THE EARLY HALF OF WEDNESDAY...
ALTHOUGH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM EASTERN
CANADA...CROSSING NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC DURING THE
EVENING...WHERE THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO STALL AS IT RUNS INTO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE EASTERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES OFFSHORE...DRAWING AN INCREASING AMOUNT OF MARINE AIR INTO
OUR REGION. AS SUCH...EXPECT INCREASED STRATUS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE. MARINE AIR WILL ALSO
SUPPORT SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM EDT SATURDAY...

MVFR CLOUDS TRAPPED UNDER THE WEDGE WERE ALREADY BEGINNING TO
ERODE EARLY THIS MORNING. BUFKIT DATA SHOWED SCATTERED CLOUDS BY
11AM/15Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS TIMING. WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. THIS WILL BRING MVFR TO IFR
VISIBILITY TO KBCB/KDAN AND LYH AFTER MIDNIGHT. ADDED LIFR FOG IN
FOR KLWB SINCE SEVERAL HOURS OF CLEAR SKY ARE EXPECTED AFTER
SUNSET.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL DISSIPATE SUNDAY MORNING AFTER DAYBREAK.
UPSTREAM TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA. PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT
WILL BRING DRIER AIR TO THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK PROMOTING
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AT
NIGHT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...AMS/PM



000
FXUS61 KRNK 201316
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
916 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS TODAY. A PIECE OF THIS HIGH WILL BREAK OFF OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FROM
THE WEST...AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL COVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 915 AM EDT SATURDAY...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN CLOUD COVER AS LOW CLOUDS ARE
ALREADY STARTING TO MIX OUT THIS MORNING. MODIFIED TEMPERATURES
FOR THE LATEST OBS AND MODEL TRENDS FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. ENJOY YOUR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...

RADAR PICKING UP SOME PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING
FROM CARROLL COUNTY INTO THE NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS.
SEVERAL OBSERVATIONS ALSO REPORTING PATCHY FOG. SATELLITE PICTURES
SHOWED A BAND OF CLOUDS ALONG THE APPALACHIANS FROM EASTERN NEW
YORK INTO NORTHEAST GEORGIA. THESE CLOUDS ALIGNS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGED DOWN THE APPALACHIANS.

BUFKIT DATA HAD FOG AND DRIZZLE ENDING AND CLOUDS BECOMING
SCATTERED IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH UPSLOPE COMPONENT
ENDING BY LATE MORNING. LITTLE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL BE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE SWIRL OF CLOUDS AROUND THIS LOW MAY
REACH THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTY WARNING AREA TONIGHT. BETWEEN THE
NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS AROUND THE COASTAL LOW AND THE SOUTHWEST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...LOOKING FOR LITTLE TO NO LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROP BELOW ONE INCH
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...

MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS TAKING A GULF
STREAM DISTURBANCE ALONG THE NC/VA SHORE SUNDAY MORNING TO OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THIS DISTURBANCE OUT OF THE
WAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
THIS STRONG FAST-MOVING FALL FRONT WILL BE PUSHED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TRACKING OVER THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. THIS FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...EXITING THE PIEDMONT DURING THE EARLY EVENING. THERE IS
A POSSIBILITY THIS FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS A
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IS ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE TROUGH. ONCE
THIS SHORT WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IN THE OHIO
VALLEY...ANY CONVECTION WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA. THIS SHORT
WAVE WILL THEN USE ANY AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO BRING RAIN/DRIZZLE TO
WESTERN SLOPES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT SUNDAY. WINDS
ALOFT WILL ALREADY BE OUT OF THE WEST...PLACING MOST OF THE RAIN
ALONG WESTERN SLOPES...UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH /0.25/. AS THESE
STORMS TRACK EAST...THEY WILL BE MOVING INTO DRIER AIR AND ALONG
WITH WESTERLY FLOW...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE REDUCED TO A TENTH OF
AN INCH /0.10/. THE GFS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE RAINFALL EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE DESPITE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. ALL MODELS ARE HINTING AT A
BRIEF BACKING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST. THESE BACKING
WINDS AND A LEE TROUGH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CARRY ISOLATED SHOWERS
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. JET DYNAMIC AND MODEST INSTABILITIES MAY
PRODUCE A FEW STRONG STORMS IN THE WEST...BUT WEST WIND AND STORMS
ENTERING RELATIVELY DRY AIR...SEVERE POTENTIAL IS VERY VERY LOW.

ONCE THE FRONT TRACKS EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING...AND THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTS TO THE EAST COAST MONDAY MORNING...COOLER
DRIER AIR WILL USHER IN THE AUTUMN SEASON. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SUNDAY TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80F
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO MID TO UPPER 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPEND ON RAINFALL TIMING. BEHIND THE
FRONT...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10F COOLER MONDAY
AFTERNOON COMPARED TO SUNDAY. ALSO ON MONDAY...PRESSURE RISES WILL
BRING BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
HIGHER RIDGES OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE COLDEST OF THE AIR ARRIVES
MONDAY NIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION...MONDAY NIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 40S...POSSIBLY THE UPPER 30S IN DEEP
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AS WINDS DECOUPLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE FORECAST REGION ON
TUESDAY...STARTING THE DAY CENTERED OVER THE MID OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
THE HIGH WILL MAINTAIN DRY NORTHERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA
THAT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH
HIGHS HOLDING IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. THE DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL
ALSO RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

WE CAN EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS FOR THE EARLY HALF OF WEDNESDAY...
ALTHOUGH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM EASTERN
CANADA...CROSSING NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC DURING THE
EVENING...WHERE THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO STALL AS IT RUNS INTO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE EASTERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES OFFSHORE...DRAWING AN INCREASING AMOUNT OF MARINE AIR INTO
OUR REGION. AS SUCH...EXPECT INCREASED STRATUS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE. MARINE AIR WILL ALSO
SUPPORT SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM EDT SATURDAY...

MVFR CLOUDS TRAPPED UNDER THE WEDGE WERE ALREADY BEGINNING TO
ERODE EARLY THIS MORNING. BUFKIT DATA SHOWED SCATTERED CLOUDS BY
11AM/15Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS TIMING. WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. THIS WILL BRING MVFR TO IFR
VISIBILITY TO KBCB/KDAN AND LYH AFTER MIDNIGHT. ADDED LIFR FOG IN
FOR KLWB SINCE SEVERAL HOURS OF CLEAR SKY ARE EXPECTED AFTER
SUNSET.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL DISSIPATE SUNDAY MORNING AFTER DAYBREAK.
UPSTREAM TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA. PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT
WILL BRING DRIER AIR TO THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK PROMOTING
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AT
NIGHT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...AMS/PM




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