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000
FXUS61 KRNK 032345
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
645 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL TRACK INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA AND WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL ALLOW FOR A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EST TUESDAY...

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. KFCX WSR-88D SHOWED THAT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION HAS
MOVED EAST OF OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO
OUR NORTHWEST SLIDING EAST. MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN...DRIZZLE AND FOG
EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
PUSHES UP TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. PLAYED POPS HIGHEST IN THE
NORTHWEST TO THE LIGHTEST IN THE SOUTHEAST.  USED A NON-DIURNAL
CURVE FOR TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE MID 30S IN THE NORTHEAST TO NEAR 50 DEGREES IN
THE WEST. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THE
PROBABILITY OF MODERATE RAIN IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA
INCREASES.

WEDNESDAY MORNING STARTS WITH A COLD FRONT SITUATED ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA FROM THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS
THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE. STRONG MOISTURE FLOW INTO THE AREA ON A
50KT TO 60KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL PUSH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES TO 1.0-1.1 INCHES IN THE WEST...AND AS HIGH AS 1.4
INCHES FURTHER EAST...ALL SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
MARCH. DURING THE MORNING...RAIN WILL BE WIDESPREAD WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST LIFT/HEAVIEST RAINFALL PROGGED TO BE
WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...JUST SCRAPPING SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA...PARTICULARLY THE WEST FACING SLOPES. FURTHER EAST...WILL
LIKELY SEE A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT SLOWLY
DRIFTS EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF...DEVELOP A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING SLOWING ITS PROGRESSES SOUTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE QUITE MILD WITH READINGS FROM THE
UPPER 40S IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...

ISSUE THIS PERIOD WILL BE WITH HOW QUICK COLDER AIR ARRIVES IN
TIMING WITH PRECIP. 12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR SLOWER ARRIVAL OF
FRONT BUT EDGE COLDER AIR INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF WV BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME...LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT MOVING NE
WILL AID IN A WARM NOSE PUNCHING BACK WEST TO CHANGE ANY SNOW TO
SLEET BEFORE THE ARCTIC AIR PLUNGES SE AS THE LOW MOVES BY THURSDAY
MORNING.

QPF IS THE ISSUE AND STILL APPEARS THE CORRIDOR OF HIGHER QPF WILL
STRETCH FROM ERN KY THROUGH NORTHERN VA WITH SECONDARY MAX IN THE
PIEDMONT WITH SFC LOW INFLUENCE. WITH WINTRY PRECIP...WENT CLOSER TO
THE 12Z GFS WITH A BLEND OF ECMWF ON TEMPS. WITH THIS IN MIND
CONFIDENCE IS 50/50 THAT OUR EXTREME NRN CWA FROM GREENBRIER TO
AMHERST WILL FLIRT WITH WARNING LEVEL SNOW/SLEET BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...AND IN COLLABORATION WITH WFO STERLING AND WFO
CHARLESTON ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FROM GREENBRIER TO AMHERST.
EXPECT THE HIGHER TOTALS TO OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WRN
GREENBRIER...NE GREENBRIER INTO THE ALLEGHANYS OF BATH...TO THE BLUE
RIDGE MTNS OF AMHERST. OVERALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE IN THE 2 TO 6 INCH
RANGE...THOUGH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF
THE COLDER AIR SURGES SWD QUICKER WITH PRECIP IN PLACE.

THIS WATCH RUNS FROM MIDNIGHT WED NIGHT THROUGH 7PM THURSDAY.

FURTHER SOUTH EXPECT RAIN TO WINTRY MIX THROUGH THURSDAY. COULD SEE
A WINTER ADVISORY GOING UP FOR THE REST OF THE CWA FOR
THURSDAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS THE NC FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT INTO SRN VA.

TEMPS WED NIGHT WILL SLOWLY FALL...AND MAY STAY STEADY OUT EAST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPS WILL THEN DROP ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA
THURSDAY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKING SHAPE. 8H TEMPS FALL FROM
+6C IN THE PIEDMONT/-6C IN THE WV MTNS AT 12Z THU TO ZERO EAST TO
-12C WEST BY 00Z FRI. SO THE LOWS THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE THE HIGHS
THURSDAY FOR SOME OF OUR MTN COUNTIES...WITH TEMPS FALLING TO 20 BY
DUSK THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EST TUESDAY...

THURSDAY EVENING...THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EXITING FRONT WILL HAVE EXITED THE REGION...OR JUST BE ON THE
EASTERN FRINGES. ALSO...ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...NORTHWEST
FLOW UPSLOPE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. BY MIDNIGHT...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS AND VEERS
MORE NORTHERLY...MUCH LESS CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
AROUND ZERO TO PLUS FIVE OVER SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND PLUS FIVE
TO LOWER TEENS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA. ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...LOWS WILL BE IN THE
TEENS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT WITH THE LOW TEMPERATURES WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL FLIRT WITH THE ADVISORY THRESHOLD OF FIVE BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION...WITH
ITS CENTER SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE RESULT
WILL BE A DRY FORECAST...WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. AFTER HIGHS
ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE MORE IN THE 40S WEST TO LOWER
50S EAST.

THERE HAS BEEN CONSIDERABLE VARIATION IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE DURING
THE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIME PERIOD. WHILE EACH IS FAIRLY
CONSISTENT THAT A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN
THIRD OF CONUS...THERE HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENCIES AS TO WHETHER OR
NOT...AND WHEN...AND WHAT TRACK A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MAY GET
PICKED UP ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS TROUGH AND PROGRESS NORTHEAST
ACROSS OUR AREA. THE GFS HAS NOT BEEN FAVORABLE OF THIS OCCURRENCE.
THE ECMWF WAS OPTIMISTIC ON AN ARRIVAL A SOUTHERN SYSTEM ON MONDAY
IN YESTERDAYS SOLUTION. TODAYS SOLUTION PLACES THAT EVENT ABOUT 24
HOURS LATER ON TUESDAY. OUR FORECAST TODAY WILL REFLECT TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING TO MODERATE THROUGH MONDAY...WITH THE THINKING THAT THE
DEVELOPING TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST...AND WE WILL
CONTINUE IN WARM AIR ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE. IT WILL ALSO REFLECT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA WHERE 850 MB FLOW WILL BE MORE W-NW.
IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
IMPACTING THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM EST TUESDAY...

LIGHT RAIN WILL PROGRESSIVELY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
WEST TO THE EAST AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. CIGS CURRENTLY ARE
MAINLY IN THE MVFR RANGE WITH VSBYS VFR. THE TREND WILL BE FOR
CIGS TO LOWER INTO THE LIFR RANGE WITH VSBYS IFR DURING THE NIGHT.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE LIKELY...NOW THROUGH ROUGHLY 13Z/8AM
ON THURSDAY COINCIDENT WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT. THE ARRIVAL AND
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL DISCONTINUE THE SHEAR...OR AT LEAST
MAKE IT TOO WEAK TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THAT POINT.

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THE COLD FRONT TOMORROW AND
PROVIDE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS. LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. IT SHOULD REACH
ALL OUR TAF SITES BUT KDAN BY 00Z TOMORROW...BUT IT WILL BE ON
ITS WESTERN DOORSTEP AT THAT TIME.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

AS OF 1230 PM EST TUESDAY...

EXTENDED FORECAST...

 WINTER PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME THE MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION TYPES ARE
SNOW AND SLEET.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR
WEATHER.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 300 PM EST TUESDAY...

FLOODING THREAT APPEARS TO STAY JUST WEST AND NORTH OF OUR CWA AS
MODELS HAVE 1.5" OR MORE IN 12 HRS PROJECTED HERE. PLUS ARRIVAL OF
COLDER AIR WITH BRUNT OF QPF MAY LIMIT RAINFALL BEFORE IT CHANGES
TO SLEET THEN SNOW. RIVER FORECAST CENTERS AS OF THIS MORNING WERE
FORECASTING A RISE TO JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT ALDERSON IN
GREENBRIER COUNTY...TAKING INTO ACCOUNT GUIDANCE FROM LAST NIGHT.
WITH LESS QPF THIS MAY BE BACKED OFF. GIVEN SNOW MELT AND TIMING
OF COLDER AIR TO CHANGEOVER THERE SHOULD ONLY BE RISES ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS...BUT THE THREAT OF FLOODING IS NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR VAZ020-024-035.
NC...NONE.
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR WVZ507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS/DS/KK
HYDROLOGY...WP


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000
FXUS61 KLWX 032324
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
624 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR
THURSDAY LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 6 PM RCVD REPORT OF 1/16 INCH OF FZRA IN WRN ALLEGANY CO SO
ADDED THEM TO THE ADVSRY.

FIRST BATCH OF FREEZING RAIN MIXED WITH A LITTLE SLEET WILL PUSH
OUT OF THE BALTIMORE METRO AREA AND BE REPLACED WITH INTERMITTENT
FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT FREEZING RAIN THIS EVENING. WARMER AIR HAS
BEEN SLOW TO PUSH NORTH AS WE HAVE SEEN MUCH OF THIS WINTER. THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE WARMING HAS OCCURRED OVER WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT COLD WEDGE HAS REMAINED
IN PLACE FURTHER NORTH.

AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF BALTIMORE...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE MASON DIXON LINE WILL SEE THE GREATEST IMPACT FROM ICING WHICH
COULD SEE UPWARDS OF 0.10-0.15 INCHES OF ICE.

THERE IS STILL HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WARM ADVECTION WILL WIN OUT AND
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING LATER TONIGHT IN ALL
AREAS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXPECT LIGHT RAIN...SOME FOG AND MILDER
TEMPERATURES.

A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MILDER AIR WILL PUSH NORTH
INTO THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH NOT TO THE EXTENT THAT PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTED. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE SHROUDED IN CLOUD COVER
AND PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE
40S IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH PERHAPS THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S CENTRAL
VA TO SOUTHERN MD. KEPT POPS CATEGORICAL ALL DAY WEDNESDAY.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN AS LIQUID IN ALL AREAS THROUGH 00Z
THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
GDNC CONTS TO PAINT AN ANOMOLOUS PICTURE...DRAINING COLD AIR SOUTH
WED NGT IN WAKE OF CDFNT. WHILE THERES NOT A STRONG LOW OR PVA...
THERES PLENTY OF FORCING AVBL THX TO STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE AND RRQ
OF UPR JETMAX. A STREAM OF AMPLE MSTR WL BE OVERRUNNING THE COLD
AIR...SOURCED FROM THE WRN GLFMEX AND PACIFIC. THEREFORE...IT
SEEMS WELL WITHIN REASON TO HAVE QPF CONTG WHILE TEMPS DROP BELOW
FREEZING. THAT SUPPORTS A SCENARIO WHERE RAIN WILL CHG TO SNOW.

THERE ARE STILL TIMING QUESTIONS AS WELL AS WHETHER THE ENTIRE
COLUMN WILL COOL IN UNISON. IF NOT...THEN PTYPE MAY BE MORE PL AND
LESS SNOW. THAT IS MORE OF A CONCERN ACROSS CENTRAL VA AND SRN MD.
IN ADDITION...THERE IS STILL A RANGE OF SOLUTIONS WRT HOW MUCH QPF
WL FALL AS SOMETHING FROZEN. SOLUTIONS SEEM TO BE COMING IN COOLER
AND WETTER. GIVEN THE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES...DO NOT WISH TO
UNDERSTIMATE POTENTIAL. FCST ACCUMS HV BEEN RAISED A BIT ACRS THE
NORTH...WHERE STDY SNOW SEEMS APPARENT. DID NOT DO LIKEWISE ACRS
THE S DUE TO THE PL POTENTIAL. REGARDLESS...AT THE 50 PCT
CONFIDENCE LVL...SEE ENUF EVIDENCE TO RAISE A WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA.

PCPN WL CONT INTO THU AFTN. COLD AIR CONTS TO STREAM SWD THU NGT
AFTR PCPN ENDS. STUCK CLOSE TO A PRVS FCST/MOS CONSENSUS FOR
MIN-T THU NGT. HV PLENTY OF LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER A VERY COLD START FRIDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE
TO RISE DURING THE DAY IN THE CONTINUED WEAK CAA...WITH HIGHS
REMAINING BELOW FREEZING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. DESPITE THE RETURN
OF SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
VERY COLD. WENT A LITTLE WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY DUE TO THE INCREASED WEAK WAA.

WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTH
SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LITTLE
EFFECT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER...EXCEPT FOR A WIND SHIFT. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FAR WEST...BUT LEFT POPS
OUT OF FORECAST UNTIL A CLEARER SIGNAL APPEARS. BEYOND SATURDAY
MODEL GUIDANCE BECOMES NOISIER WITH VARYING MODEL SOLUTIONS...SO
WENT WITH A BLEND OF HPC AND MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SUB VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL SITES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY
FROM KIAD NORTH TO KMRB...KBWI AND KMTN. FRZRA OR FZDZ WILL BE
MOST COMMON WITH THE MAJORITY OF ICING ISSUES AT KBWI AND KMTN.
ALL PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO PLAIN RAIN LATER THIS EVENING
EXCEPT LATER TONIGHT NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE. PATCHY FOG...MVFR
TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY WITH PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED.

AOB IFR WL CONT WED NGT-THU DUE TO MAINLY SNOW. IMPRVG CONDS THU
NGT.

DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY AVIATION CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA WINDS NOT CURENTLY BEING XPRNCD ON THE WATERS. THIS WL BE
ALLOWED TO END AT 7 PM.

SCA CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER A PORTION OF THE WATERS ON
WEDNESDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED DUE TO SOME FROZEN
PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING THEN RAIN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

RAIN AT THE BGNG OF WED EVNG WL TRANSITION TO SNW AND PSBLY SOME
PL. AS COLD AIR DRAINS SWD...MIXING WL IMPRV. HV RAISED A SCA WED
NGT TO ACCT FOR THAT...WHICH LKLY WL NEED TO CONT INTO AT LEAST THU.

WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD... DO
NOT ANTICIPATE ANY MARINE CONCERNS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AROUND A HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR HEAVIER AMOUNTS THAT COULD
APPROACH 1.0 - 1.5 INCHES ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 40S EVERYWHERE /AND 50S IN THE RAPPAHANNOCK
AND JAMES RIVER BASINS/...PROMOTING SNOWMELT. THE SNOWPACK IS
CURRENTLY ESTIMATED TO BE HOLDING ANYWHERE FROM A HALF INCH OF WATER
IN THE CACAPON/LOST RIVER BASIN TO AROUND AN INCH AND A HALF IN THE
SOUTH BRANCH POTOMAC BASIN. MODELING INDICATES NOT ALL OF THIS SNOW
WATER WILL BE RELEASED...ESPECIALLY GIVEN A TOTAL LACK OF SUNSHINE.

GIVEN THIS...THE COMBINATION OF SNOWMELT AND RAIN WILL PROMOTE RISES
ON AREA RIVERS...BUT AT THIS TIME STREAMS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN
WITHIN-BANK.

SOME COMPLICATING FACTORS TO KEEP IN MIND...IF THE CHANGEOVER FROM
RAIN TO WINTRY PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY EVENING OCCURS LATER THAN
EXPECTED...CONCERNS MAY BECOME HEIGHTENED. ALSO MANY OF OUR AREA
STREAMS ARE COVERED WITH ICE OR EVEN PARTIALLY FROZEN. THESE EFFECTS
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL ROLE IN AFFECTING RUNOFF.

LASTLY...AS WE SAW WITH THE RECENT RAIN/ICE/MINOR SNOWMELT...ANY
AMOUNT OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION STANDS A GOOD CHANCE OF CAUSING MINOR
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING...AS NORMAL DRAINAGE PATTERNS MAY BE BLOCKED
BY PLOWED SNOW.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR DCZ001.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     DCZ001.
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ003>006-011-013-014-501>508.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ016>018.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ003>006-011-013-014-501>508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ016>018.
VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR VAZ026>031-040-052>054-501-503>507.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR VAZ025-036>039-050-051-055>057-502-508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ053-054-505-506.
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR WVZ050>053-055-501>506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ051>053.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...KRW/HTS/MSE



000
FXUS61 KLWX 032324
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
624 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR
THURSDAY LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 6 PM RCVD REPORT OF 1/16 INCH OF FZRA IN WRN ALLEGANY CO SO
ADDED THEM TO THE ADVSRY.

FIRST BATCH OF FREEZING RAIN MIXED WITH A LITTLE SLEET WILL PUSH
OUT OF THE BALTIMORE METRO AREA AND BE REPLACED WITH INTERMITTENT
FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT FREEZING RAIN THIS EVENING. WARMER AIR HAS
BEEN SLOW TO PUSH NORTH AS WE HAVE SEEN MUCH OF THIS WINTER. THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE WARMING HAS OCCURRED OVER WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT COLD WEDGE HAS REMAINED
IN PLACE FURTHER NORTH.

AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF BALTIMORE...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE MASON DIXON LINE WILL SEE THE GREATEST IMPACT FROM ICING WHICH
COULD SEE UPWARDS OF 0.10-0.15 INCHES OF ICE.

THERE IS STILL HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WARM ADVECTION WILL WIN OUT AND
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING LATER TONIGHT IN ALL
AREAS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXPECT LIGHT RAIN...SOME FOG AND MILDER
TEMPERATURES.

A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MILDER AIR WILL PUSH NORTH
INTO THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH NOT TO THE EXTENT THAT PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTED. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE SHROUDED IN CLOUD COVER
AND PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE
40S IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH PERHAPS THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S CENTRAL
VA TO SOUTHERN MD. KEPT POPS CATEGORICAL ALL DAY WEDNESDAY.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN AS LIQUID IN ALL AREAS THROUGH 00Z
THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
GDNC CONTS TO PAINT AN ANOMOLOUS PICTURE...DRAINING COLD AIR SOUTH
WED NGT IN WAKE OF CDFNT. WHILE THERES NOT A STRONG LOW OR PVA...
THERES PLENTY OF FORCING AVBL THX TO STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE AND RRQ
OF UPR JETMAX. A STREAM OF AMPLE MSTR WL BE OVERRUNNING THE COLD
AIR...SOURCED FROM THE WRN GLFMEX AND PACIFIC. THEREFORE...IT
SEEMS WELL WITHIN REASON TO HAVE QPF CONTG WHILE TEMPS DROP BELOW
FREEZING. THAT SUPPORTS A SCENARIO WHERE RAIN WILL CHG TO SNOW.

THERE ARE STILL TIMING QUESTIONS AS WELL AS WHETHER THE ENTIRE
COLUMN WILL COOL IN UNISON. IF NOT...THEN PTYPE MAY BE MORE PL AND
LESS SNOW. THAT IS MORE OF A CONCERN ACROSS CENTRAL VA AND SRN MD.
IN ADDITION...THERE IS STILL A RANGE OF SOLUTIONS WRT HOW MUCH QPF
WL FALL AS SOMETHING FROZEN. SOLUTIONS SEEM TO BE COMING IN COOLER
AND WETTER. GIVEN THE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES...DO NOT WISH TO
UNDERSTIMATE POTENTIAL. FCST ACCUMS HV BEEN RAISED A BIT ACRS THE
NORTH...WHERE STDY SNOW SEEMS APPARENT. DID NOT DO LIKEWISE ACRS
THE S DUE TO THE PL POTENTIAL. REGARDLESS...AT THE 50 PCT
CONFIDENCE LVL...SEE ENUF EVIDENCE TO RAISE A WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA.

PCPN WL CONT INTO THU AFTN. COLD AIR CONTS TO STREAM SWD THU NGT
AFTR PCPN ENDS. STUCK CLOSE TO A PRVS FCST/MOS CONSENSUS FOR
MIN-T THU NGT. HV PLENTY OF LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER A VERY COLD START FRIDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE
TO RISE DURING THE DAY IN THE CONTINUED WEAK CAA...WITH HIGHS
REMAINING BELOW FREEZING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. DESPITE THE RETURN
OF SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
VERY COLD. WENT A LITTLE WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY DUE TO THE INCREASED WEAK WAA.

WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTH
SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LITTLE
EFFECT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER...EXCEPT FOR A WIND SHIFT. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FAR WEST...BUT LEFT POPS
OUT OF FORECAST UNTIL A CLEARER SIGNAL APPEARS. BEYOND SATURDAY
MODEL GUIDANCE BECOMES NOISIER WITH VARYING MODEL SOLUTIONS...SO
WENT WITH A BLEND OF HPC AND MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SUB VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL SITES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY
FROM KIAD NORTH TO KMRB...KBWI AND KMTN. FRZRA OR FZDZ WILL BE
MOST COMMON WITH THE MAJORITY OF ICING ISSUES AT KBWI AND KMTN.
ALL PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO PLAIN RAIN LATER THIS EVENING
EXCEPT LATER TONIGHT NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE. PATCHY FOG...MVFR
TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY WITH PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED.

AOB IFR WL CONT WED NGT-THU DUE TO MAINLY SNOW. IMPRVG CONDS THU
NGT.

DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY AVIATION CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA WINDS NOT CURENTLY BEING XPRNCD ON THE WATERS. THIS WL BE
ALLOWED TO END AT 7 PM.

SCA CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER A PORTION OF THE WATERS ON
WEDNESDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED DUE TO SOME FROZEN
PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING THEN RAIN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

RAIN AT THE BGNG OF WED EVNG WL TRANSITION TO SNW AND PSBLY SOME
PL. AS COLD AIR DRAINS SWD...MIXING WL IMPRV. HV RAISED A SCA WED
NGT TO ACCT FOR THAT...WHICH LKLY WL NEED TO CONT INTO AT LEAST THU.

WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD... DO
NOT ANTICIPATE ANY MARINE CONCERNS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AROUND A HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR HEAVIER AMOUNTS THAT COULD
APPROACH 1.0 - 1.5 INCHES ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 40S EVERYWHERE /AND 50S IN THE RAPPAHANNOCK
AND JAMES RIVER BASINS/...PROMOTING SNOWMELT. THE SNOWPACK IS
CURRENTLY ESTIMATED TO BE HOLDING ANYWHERE FROM A HALF INCH OF WATER
IN THE CACAPON/LOST RIVER BASIN TO AROUND AN INCH AND A HALF IN THE
SOUTH BRANCH POTOMAC BASIN. MODELING INDICATES NOT ALL OF THIS SNOW
WATER WILL BE RELEASED...ESPECIALLY GIVEN A TOTAL LACK OF SUNSHINE.

GIVEN THIS...THE COMBINATION OF SNOWMELT AND RAIN WILL PROMOTE RISES
ON AREA RIVERS...BUT AT THIS TIME STREAMS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN
WITHIN-BANK.

SOME COMPLICATING FACTORS TO KEEP IN MIND...IF THE CHANGEOVER FROM
RAIN TO WINTRY PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY EVENING OCCURS LATER THAN
EXPECTED...CONCERNS MAY BECOME HEIGHTENED. ALSO MANY OF OUR AREA
STREAMS ARE COVERED WITH ICE OR EVEN PARTIALLY FROZEN. THESE EFFECTS
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL ROLE IN AFFECTING RUNOFF.

LASTLY...AS WE SAW WITH THE RECENT RAIN/ICE/MINOR SNOWMELT...ANY
AMOUNT OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION STANDS A GOOD CHANCE OF CAUSING MINOR
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING...AS NORMAL DRAINAGE PATTERNS MAY BE BLOCKED
BY PLOWED SNOW.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR DCZ001.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     DCZ001.
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ003>006-011-013-014-501>508.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ016>018.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ003>006-011-013-014-501>508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ016>018.
VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR VAZ026>031-040-052>054-501-503>507.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR VAZ025-036>039-050-051-055>057-502-508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ053-054-505-506.
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR WVZ050>053-055-501>506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ051>053.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...KRW/HTS/MSE



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 032200
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
500 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG THE FRONT AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ONLY VERY LIGHT RAIN OVR THE LWR MD ERN SHR THIS AFTN...AS WEAK
UPR AIR ENERGY WAS MOVNG EWRD ACRS THIS REGION. OTHERWISE...CLOUDY
SKY EVERYWHERE WITH TEMPS RANGING FM THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S LATE
THIS AFTN. WINDS WERE SE OR S ARND 5 MPH. ACTUAL WARM FRONT WITH
INCREASING LO LVL MOIST AND BETTER VERTICAL MOTION WILL LIFT THRU
THE AREA LATER THIS EVENG INTO WED MORNG. MAINLY HAVE LIKELY POPS
(60-70%) ACRS THE NRN HALF OF THE REGION...WITH CHC POPS (30-50%)
ACRS THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY RISE
OVRNGT...AS WINDS TURN MORE SSW AND INCREASE. RDGS SHOULD RISE
AT LEAST INTO THE MID TO UPR 40S BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WED THRU THU NGT...EXPECT VARIABLE WX CONDITIONS WITH VERY MILD
TEMPS ON WED/WED NGT ALONG WITH RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS...THEN MUCH
COLDER TEMPS RETURNING FOR THU/THU NGT WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SLEET
AND/OR SNOW. AT THIS TIME...GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z
GFS/ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF FRNTL PASSAGE AND TEMP
PROFILES WITH THE CHANGEOVER FM RAIN TO SLEET AND/OR SNOW.

HIGHEST POPS FOR RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ACRS THE NRN
HALF OF THE REGION DURING WED...AS THE FRONT SLOWLY SINKS SE ACRS
THE AREA. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 50S EXTRM N...TO THE
LWR 70S S/SE.

COLD FRONT WILL BE S OF THE ENTIRE REGION BY 12Z THU...THEN WAVES
OF LO PRES WILL MOVE NE ALNG THE BNDRY AND OFF THE MID ATLC CST
THU INTO THU NGT...AS ANOTHER AREA OF ARCTIC SFC HI PRES BLDS TWD
THE MS/OH VALLEYS. COMPROMISE OF 12Z GFS/ECMWF THERMAL PROFILES
SHOWS RAIN BECOMES MIXED WITH SLEET...THEN CHANGES TO SNOW/SLEET
THEN ENDING AS SNOW FM NNW TO SE ACRS THE FA...FM THU MORNG INTO
THU EVENG. STILL SOME UNCERTAINLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING THOSE
TRANSITIONS...AND AT THIS TIME...EXPECT AT LEAST LGT SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ALNG AND N OF A FARMVILLE TO PETERSBURG TO
MELFA LINE BY EARLY THU NGT. ALNG WITH THE TRANSITION TO WINTRY
PCPN...GUSTY NNE WNDS WILL BE PUSHING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.
LO TEMPS WED NGT WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 30S N...TO THE LWR/MID 40S
FAR S/SE. TEMPS ON THU WILL BE STEADY OR FALLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
AND A RETURN TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMAL TEMPS.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL CONSENSUS WITH THE UPPER FLOW
THRU THE EXTENDED...CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING/BLOCKING OVER THE WRN
CONUS/ERN PACIFIC AND BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN
CONUS. TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...COLD/DRY 1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THURSDAYS COLD FRONT LOCATES
OFF THE COAST...EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE NRN GULF. H85 TEMPS DROP
TO AROUND -8C FRI (~-1 STD DEV)...SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN DEPICTED 24
HRS AGO. HIGHS FRI GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 30S INLAND AND UPPER
20S-LOW 30S COASTAL AREAS. AIRMASS MODIFIES FRI NIGHT-SAT AS THE
COLD/DRY AIR RETREATS NWD. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
SAT...WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING TO MODERATE LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES. TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-
MID 40S COASTAL AREAS. SKY AVG MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION SUN...RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY
AND WARMING CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 50S INLAND AND LOW
40S TO UPPER 40S COASTAL AREAS. ATTENTION THEN TURNS OUT
WEST...WHERE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE HANDLING SPLIT/BLOCKY
FLOW AND SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE DESERT SW/BAJA. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT NOW THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF HAS TRENDED DRY SUN NIGHT-EARLY
NEXT WEEK...MATCHING THE GFS AND ENSEMBLES. HOWEVER...SPLIT FLOW
CONTINUES RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRONT OVER
THE GULF WILL ATTEMPT TO AMPLIFY AND LIFT NWD AS SRN STREAM ENERGY
APPROACHES...BUT WILL KEEP POPS SILENT. HIGHS EARLY NEXT WEEK (MON
AND TUES) CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE MID 50S INLAND AND LOW-UPPER
40S COASTAL AREAS THANKS TO COLD WATER.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN OVERCAST DECK AROUND 3500-5000 FT AGL PERSISTS THIS AFTN AS
LIGHT NE WINDS START TO BECOME MORE ELY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF -SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AFTER 03/2100Z ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WITH MORE
STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS THE NRN NECK AND MD/VA EASTERN SHORE. IFR
CIGS OF 500-1000 FT AGL ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS PRECIP BEGINS
AND THEN PERSISTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE SHOULD BE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WED
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER SE VA/NE NC WHERE THE CIGS MAY BREAK UP
NICELY. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE
REGION WED AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
THE CHANCE OF RAIN INCREASES LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN
OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING. MODELS ARE
TRENDING WARMER SLIGHTLY LONGER WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A
TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX WITH SLEET FROM NW TO SE AS THU
PROGRESSES AND EVENTUALLY TO ALL SNOW BY LATE THU AFTN/EARLY
EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...A GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. THE RESULT IS LIGHT E-SE WINDS
AOB 10 KT OVER THE WATER. WAVES GENERALLY 1-2 FT AND SEAS 2-4 FT.
SW WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS OVER THE WATERS.
LLJ INCREASES TO 50+KT TONIGHT...BUT WAA AND COLD WATER WILL
RESULT IN A SHARP INVERSION OVER THE WATER. THIS WILL PREVENT THE
HIGHER VELOCITY WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE WATER. THUS...SCA
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS OF 20
KT LATE TONIGHT. HAVE CAPPED WINDS AT 15 KT IN THE BAY AND 20 KT
IN THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS REMAIN AOB 4 FT. COLD FRONT SLOWLY
CROSSES THE WATER NW TO SE WEDS...BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR
THE NC/VA BORDER WEDS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. FLOW BECOMES NLY POST FRONTAL...BUT DECREASES TO AROUND
10-15 KT AS CAA LAGS BEHIND. FRONT CLEARS THE WATERS LATE WEDS
NIGHT...WITH CAA SURGE ARRIVING INTO THE REGION LATE WEDS NIGHT.
SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL WATER THURS MORNING...PERSISTING THRU
THURS NIGHT. GUIDANCE INDICATING LOW END GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
LATE THURS INTO THURS NIGHT IN THE SRN COASTAL WATERS AND
CURRITUCK SOUND...CLOSEST TO THE STRONGEST GRADIENT. SEAS BUILD TO
4-7 FT (UP TO 8 FT SRN COASTAL WATERS) THURS-THURS NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FRI...RESULTING IN DIMINISHING
WINDS AND SLOWLY SUBSIDING SEAS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL THRU
THE WEEKEND THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...SAM






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 032200
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
500 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG THE FRONT AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ONLY VERY LIGHT RAIN OVR THE LWR MD ERN SHR THIS AFTN...AS WEAK
UPR AIR ENERGY WAS MOVNG EWRD ACRS THIS REGION. OTHERWISE...CLOUDY
SKY EVERYWHERE WITH TEMPS RANGING FM THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S LATE
THIS AFTN. WINDS WERE SE OR S ARND 5 MPH. ACTUAL WARM FRONT WITH
INCREASING LO LVL MOIST AND BETTER VERTICAL MOTION WILL LIFT THRU
THE AREA LATER THIS EVENG INTO WED MORNG. MAINLY HAVE LIKELY POPS
(60-70%) ACRS THE NRN HALF OF THE REGION...WITH CHC POPS (30-50%)
ACRS THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY RISE
OVRNGT...AS WINDS TURN MORE SSW AND INCREASE. RDGS SHOULD RISE
AT LEAST INTO THE MID TO UPR 40S BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WED THRU THU NGT...EXPECT VARIABLE WX CONDITIONS WITH VERY MILD
TEMPS ON WED/WED NGT ALONG WITH RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS...THEN MUCH
COLDER TEMPS RETURNING FOR THU/THU NGT WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SLEET
AND/OR SNOW. AT THIS TIME...GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z
GFS/ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF FRNTL PASSAGE AND TEMP
PROFILES WITH THE CHANGEOVER FM RAIN TO SLEET AND/OR SNOW.

HIGHEST POPS FOR RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ACRS THE NRN
HALF OF THE REGION DURING WED...AS THE FRONT SLOWLY SINKS SE ACRS
THE AREA. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 50S EXTRM N...TO THE
LWR 70S S/SE.

COLD FRONT WILL BE S OF THE ENTIRE REGION BY 12Z THU...THEN WAVES
OF LO PRES WILL MOVE NE ALNG THE BNDRY AND OFF THE MID ATLC CST
THU INTO THU NGT...AS ANOTHER AREA OF ARCTIC SFC HI PRES BLDS TWD
THE MS/OH VALLEYS. COMPROMISE OF 12Z GFS/ECMWF THERMAL PROFILES
SHOWS RAIN BECOMES MIXED WITH SLEET...THEN CHANGES TO SNOW/SLEET
THEN ENDING AS SNOW FM NNW TO SE ACRS THE FA...FM THU MORNG INTO
THU EVENG. STILL SOME UNCERTAINLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING THOSE
TRANSITIONS...AND AT THIS TIME...EXPECT AT LEAST LGT SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ALNG AND N OF A FARMVILLE TO PETERSBURG TO
MELFA LINE BY EARLY THU NGT. ALNG WITH THE TRANSITION TO WINTRY
PCPN...GUSTY NNE WNDS WILL BE PUSHING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.
LO TEMPS WED NGT WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 30S N...TO THE LWR/MID 40S
FAR S/SE. TEMPS ON THU WILL BE STEADY OR FALLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
AND A RETURN TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMAL TEMPS.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL CONSENSUS WITH THE UPPER FLOW
THRU THE EXTENDED...CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING/BLOCKING OVER THE WRN
CONUS/ERN PACIFIC AND BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN
CONUS. TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...COLD/DRY 1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THURSDAYS COLD FRONT LOCATES
OFF THE COAST...EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE NRN GULF. H85 TEMPS DROP
TO AROUND -8C FRI (~-1 STD DEV)...SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN DEPICTED 24
HRS AGO. HIGHS FRI GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 30S INLAND AND UPPER
20S-LOW 30S COASTAL AREAS. AIRMASS MODIFIES FRI NIGHT-SAT AS THE
COLD/DRY AIR RETREATS NWD. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
SAT...WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING TO MODERATE LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES. TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-
MID 40S COASTAL AREAS. SKY AVG MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION SUN...RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY
AND WARMING CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 50S INLAND AND LOW
40S TO UPPER 40S COASTAL AREAS. ATTENTION THEN TURNS OUT
WEST...WHERE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE HANDLING SPLIT/BLOCKY
FLOW AND SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE DESERT SW/BAJA. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT NOW THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF HAS TRENDED DRY SUN NIGHT-EARLY
NEXT WEEK...MATCHING THE GFS AND ENSEMBLES. HOWEVER...SPLIT FLOW
CONTINUES RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRONT OVER
THE GULF WILL ATTEMPT TO AMPLIFY AND LIFT NWD AS SRN STREAM ENERGY
APPROACHES...BUT WILL KEEP POPS SILENT. HIGHS EARLY NEXT WEEK (MON
AND TUES) CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE MID 50S INLAND AND LOW-UPPER
40S COASTAL AREAS THANKS TO COLD WATER.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN OVERCAST DECK AROUND 3500-5000 FT AGL PERSISTS THIS AFTN AS
LIGHT NE WINDS START TO BECOME MORE ELY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF -SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AFTER 03/2100Z ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WITH MORE
STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS THE NRN NECK AND MD/VA EASTERN SHORE. IFR
CIGS OF 500-1000 FT AGL ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS PRECIP BEGINS
AND THEN PERSISTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE SHOULD BE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WED
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER SE VA/NE NC WHERE THE CIGS MAY BREAK UP
NICELY. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE
REGION WED AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
THE CHANCE OF RAIN INCREASES LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN
OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING. MODELS ARE
TRENDING WARMER SLIGHTLY LONGER WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A
TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX WITH SLEET FROM NW TO SE AS THU
PROGRESSES AND EVENTUALLY TO ALL SNOW BY LATE THU AFTN/EARLY
EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...A GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. THE RESULT IS LIGHT E-SE WINDS
AOB 10 KT OVER THE WATER. WAVES GENERALLY 1-2 FT AND SEAS 2-4 FT.
SW WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS OVER THE WATERS.
LLJ INCREASES TO 50+KT TONIGHT...BUT WAA AND COLD WATER WILL
RESULT IN A SHARP INVERSION OVER THE WATER. THIS WILL PREVENT THE
HIGHER VELOCITY WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE WATER. THUS...SCA
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS OF 20
KT LATE TONIGHT. HAVE CAPPED WINDS AT 15 KT IN THE BAY AND 20 KT
IN THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS REMAIN AOB 4 FT. COLD FRONT SLOWLY
CROSSES THE WATER NW TO SE WEDS...BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR
THE NC/VA BORDER WEDS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. FLOW BECOMES NLY POST FRONTAL...BUT DECREASES TO AROUND
10-15 KT AS CAA LAGS BEHIND. FRONT CLEARS THE WATERS LATE WEDS
NIGHT...WITH CAA SURGE ARRIVING INTO THE REGION LATE WEDS NIGHT.
SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL WATER THURS MORNING...PERSISTING THRU
THURS NIGHT. GUIDANCE INDICATING LOW END GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
LATE THURS INTO THURS NIGHT IN THE SRN COASTAL WATERS AND
CURRITUCK SOUND...CLOSEST TO THE STRONGEST GRADIENT. SEAS BUILD TO
4-7 FT (UP TO 8 FT SRN COASTAL WATERS) THURS-THURS NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FRI...RESULTING IN DIMINISHING
WINDS AND SLOWLY SUBSIDING SEAS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL THRU
THE WEEKEND THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...SAM






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 032200
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
500 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG THE FRONT AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ONLY VERY LIGHT RAIN OVR THE LWR MD ERN SHR THIS AFTN...AS WEAK
UPR AIR ENERGY WAS MOVNG EWRD ACRS THIS REGION. OTHERWISE...CLOUDY
SKY EVERYWHERE WITH TEMPS RANGING FM THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S LATE
THIS AFTN. WINDS WERE SE OR S ARND 5 MPH. ACTUAL WARM FRONT WITH
INCREASING LO LVL MOIST AND BETTER VERTICAL MOTION WILL LIFT THRU
THE AREA LATER THIS EVENG INTO WED MORNG. MAINLY HAVE LIKELY POPS
(60-70%) ACRS THE NRN HALF OF THE REGION...WITH CHC POPS (30-50%)
ACRS THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY RISE
OVRNGT...AS WINDS TURN MORE SSW AND INCREASE. RDGS SHOULD RISE
AT LEAST INTO THE MID TO UPR 40S BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WED THRU THU NGT...EXPECT VARIABLE WX CONDITIONS WITH VERY MILD
TEMPS ON WED/WED NGT ALONG WITH RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS...THEN MUCH
COLDER TEMPS RETURNING FOR THU/THU NGT WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SLEET
AND/OR SNOW. AT THIS TIME...GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z
GFS/ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF FRNTL PASSAGE AND TEMP
PROFILES WITH THE CHANGEOVER FM RAIN TO SLEET AND/OR SNOW.

HIGHEST POPS FOR RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ACRS THE NRN
HALF OF THE REGION DURING WED...AS THE FRONT SLOWLY SINKS SE ACRS
THE AREA. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 50S EXTRM N...TO THE
LWR 70S S/SE.

COLD FRONT WILL BE S OF THE ENTIRE REGION BY 12Z THU...THEN WAVES
OF LO PRES WILL MOVE NE ALNG THE BNDRY AND OFF THE MID ATLC CST
THU INTO THU NGT...AS ANOTHER AREA OF ARCTIC SFC HI PRES BLDS TWD
THE MS/OH VALLEYS. COMPROMISE OF 12Z GFS/ECMWF THERMAL PROFILES
SHOWS RAIN BECOMES MIXED WITH SLEET...THEN CHANGES TO SNOW/SLEET
THEN ENDING AS SNOW FM NNW TO SE ACRS THE FA...FM THU MORNG INTO
THU EVENG. STILL SOME UNCERTAINLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING THOSE
TRANSITIONS...AND AT THIS TIME...EXPECT AT LEAST LGT SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ALNG AND N OF A FARMVILLE TO PETERSBURG TO
MELFA LINE BY EARLY THU NGT. ALNG WITH THE TRANSITION TO WINTRY
PCPN...GUSTY NNE WNDS WILL BE PUSHING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.
LO TEMPS WED NGT WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 30S N...TO THE LWR/MID 40S
FAR S/SE. TEMPS ON THU WILL BE STEADY OR FALLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
AND A RETURN TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMAL TEMPS.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL CONSENSUS WITH THE UPPER FLOW
THRU THE EXTENDED...CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING/BLOCKING OVER THE WRN
CONUS/ERN PACIFIC AND BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN
CONUS. TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...COLD/DRY 1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THURSDAYS COLD FRONT LOCATES
OFF THE COAST...EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE NRN GULF. H85 TEMPS DROP
TO AROUND -8C FRI (~-1 STD DEV)...SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN DEPICTED 24
HRS AGO. HIGHS FRI GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 30S INLAND AND UPPER
20S-LOW 30S COASTAL AREAS. AIRMASS MODIFIES FRI NIGHT-SAT AS THE
COLD/DRY AIR RETREATS NWD. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
SAT...WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING TO MODERATE LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES. TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-
MID 40S COASTAL AREAS. SKY AVG MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION SUN...RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY
AND WARMING CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 50S INLAND AND LOW
40S TO UPPER 40S COASTAL AREAS. ATTENTION THEN TURNS OUT
WEST...WHERE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE HANDLING SPLIT/BLOCKY
FLOW AND SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE DESERT SW/BAJA. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT NOW THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF HAS TRENDED DRY SUN NIGHT-EARLY
NEXT WEEK...MATCHING THE GFS AND ENSEMBLES. HOWEVER...SPLIT FLOW
CONTINUES RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRONT OVER
THE GULF WILL ATTEMPT TO AMPLIFY AND LIFT NWD AS SRN STREAM ENERGY
APPROACHES...BUT WILL KEEP POPS SILENT. HIGHS EARLY NEXT WEEK (MON
AND TUES) CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE MID 50S INLAND AND LOW-UPPER
40S COASTAL AREAS THANKS TO COLD WATER.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN OVERCAST DECK AROUND 3500-5000 FT AGL PERSISTS THIS AFTN AS
LIGHT NE WINDS START TO BECOME MORE ELY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF -SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AFTER 03/2100Z ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WITH MORE
STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS THE NRN NECK AND MD/VA EASTERN SHORE. IFR
CIGS OF 500-1000 FT AGL ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS PRECIP BEGINS
AND THEN PERSISTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE SHOULD BE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WED
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER SE VA/NE NC WHERE THE CIGS MAY BREAK UP
NICELY. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE
REGION WED AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
THE CHANCE OF RAIN INCREASES LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN
OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING. MODELS ARE
TRENDING WARMER SLIGHTLY LONGER WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A
TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX WITH SLEET FROM NW TO SE AS THU
PROGRESSES AND EVENTUALLY TO ALL SNOW BY LATE THU AFTN/EARLY
EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...A GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. THE RESULT IS LIGHT E-SE WINDS
AOB 10 KT OVER THE WATER. WAVES GENERALLY 1-2 FT AND SEAS 2-4 FT.
SW WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS OVER THE WATERS.
LLJ INCREASES TO 50+KT TONIGHT...BUT WAA AND COLD WATER WILL
RESULT IN A SHARP INVERSION OVER THE WATER. THIS WILL PREVENT THE
HIGHER VELOCITY WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE WATER. THUS...SCA
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS OF 20
KT LATE TONIGHT. HAVE CAPPED WINDS AT 15 KT IN THE BAY AND 20 KT
IN THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS REMAIN AOB 4 FT. COLD FRONT SLOWLY
CROSSES THE WATER NW TO SE WEDS...BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR
THE NC/VA BORDER WEDS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. FLOW BECOMES NLY POST FRONTAL...BUT DECREASES TO AROUND
10-15 KT AS CAA LAGS BEHIND. FRONT CLEARS THE WATERS LATE WEDS
NIGHT...WITH CAA SURGE ARRIVING INTO THE REGION LATE WEDS NIGHT.
SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL WATER THURS MORNING...PERSISTING THRU
THURS NIGHT. GUIDANCE INDICATING LOW END GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
LATE THURS INTO THURS NIGHT IN THE SRN COASTAL WATERS AND
CURRITUCK SOUND...CLOSEST TO THE STRONGEST GRADIENT. SEAS BUILD TO
4-7 FT (UP TO 8 FT SRN COASTAL WATERS) THURS-THURS NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FRI...RESULTING IN DIMINISHING
WINDS AND SLOWLY SUBSIDING SEAS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL THRU
THE WEEKEND THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...SAM






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 032200
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
500 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG THE FRONT AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ONLY VERY LIGHT RAIN OVR THE LWR MD ERN SHR THIS AFTN...AS WEAK
UPR AIR ENERGY WAS MOVNG EWRD ACRS THIS REGION. OTHERWISE...CLOUDY
SKY EVERYWHERE WITH TEMPS RANGING FM THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S LATE
THIS AFTN. WINDS WERE SE OR S ARND 5 MPH. ACTUAL WARM FRONT WITH
INCREASING LO LVL MOIST AND BETTER VERTICAL MOTION WILL LIFT THRU
THE AREA LATER THIS EVENG INTO WED MORNG. MAINLY HAVE LIKELY POPS
(60-70%) ACRS THE NRN HALF OF THE REGION...WITH CHC POPS (30-50%)
ACRS THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY RISE
OVRNGT...AS WINDS TURN MORE SSW AND INCREASE. RDGS SHOULD RISE
AT LEAST INTO THE MID TO UPR 40S BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WED THRU THU NGT...EXPECT VARIABLE WX CONDITIONS WITH VERY MILD
TEMPS ON WED/WED NGT ALONG WITH RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS...THEN MUCH
COLDER TEMPS RETURNING FOR THU/THU NGT WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SLEET
AND/OR SNOW. AT THIS TIME...GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z
GFS/ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF FRNTL PASSAGE AND TEMP
PROFILES WITH THE CHANGEOVER FM RAIN TO SLEET AND/OR SNOW.

HIGHEST POPS FOR RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ACRS THE NRN
HALF OF THE REGION DURING WED...AS THE FRONT SLOWLY SINKS SE ACRS
THE AREA. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 50S EXTRM N...TO THE
LWR 70S S/SE.

COLD FRONT WILL BE S OF THE ENTIRE REGION BY 12Z THU...THEN WAVES
OF LO PRES WILL MOVE NE ALNG THE BNDRY AND OFF THE MID ATLC CST
THU INTO THU NGT...AS ANOTHER AREA OF ARCTIC SFC HI PRES BLDS TWD
THE MS/OH VALLEYS. COMPROMISE OF 12Z GFS/ECMWF THERMAL PROFILES
SHOWS RAIN BECOMES MIXED WITH SLEET...THEN CHANGES TO SNOW/SLEET
THEN ENDING AS SNOW FM NNW TO SE ACRS THE FA...FM THU MORNG INTO
THU EVENG. STILL SOME UNCERTAINLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING THOSE
TRANSITIONS...AND AT THIS TIME...EXPECT AT LEAST LGT SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ALNG AND N OF A FARMVILLE TO PETERSBURG TO
MELFA LINE BY EARLY THU NGT. ALNG WITH THE TRANSITION TO WINTRY
PCPN...GUSTY NNE WNDS WILL BE PUSHING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.
LO TEMPS WED NGT WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 30S N...TO THE LWR/MID 40S
FAR S/SE. TEMPS ON THU WILL BE STEADY OR FALLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
AND A RETURN TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMAL TEMPS.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL CONSENSUS WITH THE UPPER FLOW
THRU THE EXTENDED...CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING/BLOCKING OVER THE WRN
CONUS/ERN PACIFIC AND BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN
CONUS. TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...COLD/DRY 1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THURSDAYS COLD FRONT LOCATES
OFF THE COAST...EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE NRN GULF. H85 TEMPS DROP
TO AROUND -8C FRI (~-1 STD DEV)...SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN DEPICTED 24
HRS AGO. HIGHS FRI GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 30S INLAND AND UPPER
20S-LOW 30S COASTAL AREAS. AIRMASS MODIFIES FRI NIGHT-SAT AS THE
COLD/DRY AIR RETREATS NWD. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
SAT...WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING TO MODERATE LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES. TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-
MID 40S COASTAL AREAS. SKY AVG MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION SUN...RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY
AND WARMING CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 50S INLAND AND LOW
40S TO UPPER 40S COASTAL AREAS. ATTENTION THEN TURNS OUT
WEST...WHERE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE HANDLING SPLIT/BLOCKY
FLOW AND SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE DESERT SW/BAJA. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT NOW THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF HAS TRENDED DRY SUN NIGHT-EARLY
NEXT WEEK...MATCHING THE GFS AND ENSEMBLES. HOWEVER...SPLIT FLOW
CONTINUES RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRONT OVER
THE GULF WILL ATTEMPT TO AMPLIFY AND LIFT NWD AS SRN STREAM ENERGY
APPROACHES...BUT WILL KEEP POPS SILENT. HIGHS EARLY NEXT WEEK (MON
AND TUES) CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE MID 50S INLAND AND LOW-UPPER
40S COASTAL AREAS THANKS TO COLD WATER.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN OVERCAST DECK AROUND 3500-5000 FT AGL PERSISTS THIS AFTN AS
LIGHT NE WINDS START TO BECOME MORE ELY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF -SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AFTER 03/2100Z ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WITH MORE
STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS THE NRN NECK AND MD/VA EASTERN SHORE. IFR
CIGS OF 500-1000 FT AGL ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS PRECIP BEGINS
AND THEN PERSISTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE SHOULD BE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WED
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER SE VA/NE NC WHERE THE CIGS MAY BREAK UP
NICELY. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE
REGION WED AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
THE CHANCE OF RAIN INCREASES LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN
OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING. MODELS ARE
TRENDING WARMER SLIGHTLY LONGER WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A
TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX WITH SLEET FROM NW TO SE AS THU
PROGRESSES AND EVENTUALLY TO ALL SNOW BY LATE THU AFTN/EARLY
EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...A GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. THE RESULT IS LIGHT E-SE WINDS
AOB 10 KT OVER THE WATER. WAVES GENERALLY 1-2 FT AND SEAS 2-4 FT.
SW WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS OVER THE WATERS.
LLJ INCREASES TO 50+KT TONIGHT...BUT WAA AND COLD WATER WILL
RESULT IN A SHARP INVERSION OVER THE WATER. THIS WILL PREVENT THE
HIGHER VELOCITY WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE WATER. THUS...SCA
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS OF 20
KT LATE TONIGHT. HAVE CAPPED WINDS AT 15 KT IN THE BAY AND 20 KT
IN THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS REMAIN AOB 4 FT. COLD FRONT SLOWLY
CROSSES THE WATER NW TO SE WEDS...BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR
THE NC/VA BORDER WEDS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. FLOW BECOMES NLY POST FRONTAL...BUT DECREASES TO AROUND
10-15 KT AS CAA LAGS BEHIND. FRONT CLEARS THE WATERS LATE WEDS
NIGHT...WITH CAA SURGE ARRIVING INTO THE REGION LATE WEDS NIGHT.
SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL WATER THURS MORNING...PERSISTING THRU
THURS NIGHT. GUIDANCE INDICATING LOW END GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
LATE THURS INTO THURS NIGHT IN THE SRN COASTAL WATERS AND
CURRITUCK SOUND...CLOSEST TO THE STRONGEST GRADIENT. SEAS BUILD TO
4-7 FT (UP TO 8 FT SRN COASTAL WATERS) THURS-THURS NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FRI...RESULTING IN DIMINISHING
WINDS AND SLOWLY SUBSIDING SEAS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL THRU
THE WEEKEND THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...SAM






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 032124
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
424 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG THE FRONT AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ONLY VERY LIGHT RAIN OVR THE LWR MD ERN SHR THIS AFTN...AS WEAK
UPR AIR ENERGY WAS MOVNG EWRD ACRS THIS REGION. OTHERWISE...CLOUDY
SKY EVERYWHERE WITH TEMPS RANGING FM THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S LATE
THIS AFTN. WINDS WERE SE OR S ARND 5 MPH. ACTUAL WARM FRONT WITH
INCREASING LO LVL MOIST AND BETTER VERTICAL MOTION WILL LIFT THRU
THE AREA LATER THIS EVENG INTO WED MORNG. MAINLY HAVE LIKELY POPS
(60-70%) ACRS THE NRN HALF OF THE REGION...WITH CHC POPS (30-50%)
ACRS THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY RISE
OVRNGT...AS WINDS TURN MORE SSW AND INCREASE. RDGS SHOULD RISE
AT LEAST INTO THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WARM FRONT TO LIFT NE THROUGH THE FA TONIGHT. BEST MOISTURE AND
UVM ACRS CNTRL/NRN PORTIONS OF FA...THUS THE HIGHEST POPS...W/
WITH CHC POPS LIMITED TO SRN VA/NE NC. BULK OF THE RA LIFTS TO NRN
PORTION BY LT AT NGT. LO TEMPS LIKELY ARND 00Z/04 WITH RISING
TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPS BY 12Z/04 WED RISE INTO THE MID/UPR
40S TO MID 50S SE.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRONG SSW FLOW.
THERE RMN TIMING ISSUES W/ THE APPROACHING CDFNT FM THE NNW...HOWEVER
A GFS/ECMWF BLEND LOOKS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS
(40-70%) BY AFTN ACRS NRN TIER OF FA...W/ SLGT CHC TO CHC (20-40%)
TO THE S. FOR NOW...LEAVING OUT ANY MENTION OF T ACRS SRN VA/NE
NC...SINCE IT APRS MOST OF MOISTURE CONFINED TO W/ AND BEHIND THE
FNT. HI TEMPS FM THE U50S/L60S N TO L70S IN FAR SE VA/NE NC.

JUST ONE YEAR AGO...MARCH 2ND-3RD...WENT FM 60S TO L70S (THE 2ND)
TO A FEW INCHES OF SN (ON THE 3RD). THIS MAY OCCUR AGN THIS WK
(WED-THU).

FCST CHALLENGES CONT WED NGT THROUGH THU AS CDFNT SETTLES SSE
THROUGH THE FA...AND ANOTHER AREA OF ARCTIC SFC HI PRES BUILDS TWD
THE MS/OH VLYS. WILL LEAN TWD THE FASTER ARRIVAL OF COLDER SFC
AIR FM THE NNW (GFS/ECMWF) BY LT WED NGT AND CONTG ON THU. THE
MDLS EACH HINT AT WK SFC LO PRES TRACKING THROUGH NC AS S/W ALOFT
(IN FAST SWLY FLO) IS SHEARED AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE RGN. ALL
THIS LEADS TO A TRANSITION (WRT P-TYPE) LT WED/THU. RA...BECOMES
MIXED W/ IP-CHANGING TO SN/IP THEN ENDING AS SN FM NNW TO SE ACRS
THE FA (LASTLY ACRS NE NC BY MID OR LT AFTN THU). TIMING THOSE
TRANSITIONS AT THIS POINT VERY DIFFICULT...THOUGH CURRENTLY EXPECT
A LEAST LGT SN ACCUMS FOR AREAS N OF THE NC/VA BORDER BEFORE THE
DAY ENDS THU (T-2 INCHES S...1-4 INCHES N (HIGHEST PTNTTLY FM
RIC-SBY)). ALONG W/ THE TRANSITION TO WINTRY PCPN...GUSTY NNE WNDS
WILL BE PUSHING COLDER AIR INTO THE RGN. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM ARND
30F N TO THE LOW/MID 40S FAR S. TEMPS THU STEADY OR FALLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
AND A RETURN TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMAL TEMPS.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL CONSENSUS WITH THE UPPER FLOW
THRU THE EXTENDED...CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING/BLOCKING OVER THE WRN
CONUS/ERN PACIFIC AND BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN
CONUS. TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...COLD/DRY 1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THURSDAYS COLD FRONT LOCATES
OFF THE COAST...EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE NRN GULF. H85 TEMPS DROP
TO AROUND -8C FRI (~-1 STD DEV)...SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN DEPICTED 24
HRS AGO. HIGHS FRI GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 30S INLAND AND UPPER
20S-LOW 30S COASTAL AREAS. AIRMASS MODIFIES FRI NIGHT-SAT AS THE
COLD/DRY AIR RETREATS NWD. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
SAT...WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING TO MODERATE LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES. TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-
MID 40S COASTAL AREAS. SKY AVG MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION SUN...RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY
AND WARMING CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 50S INLAND AND LOW
40S TO UPPER 40S COASTAL AREAS. ATTENTION THEN TURNS OUT
WEST...WHERE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE HANDLING SPLIT/BLOCKY
FLOW AND SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE DESERT SW/BAJA. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT NOW THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF HAS TRENDED DRY SUN NIGHT-EARLY
NEXT WEEK...MATCHING THE GFS AND ENSEMBLES. HOWEVER...SPLIT FLOW
CONTINUES RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRONT OVER
THE GULF WILL ATTEMPT TO AMPLIFY AND LIFT NWD AS SRN STREAM ENERGY
APPROACHES...BUT WILL KEEP POPS SILENT. HIGHS EARLY NEXT WEEK (MON
AND TUES) CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE MID 50S INLAND AND LOW-UPPER
40S COASTAL AREAS THANKS TO COLD WATER.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN OVERCAST DECK AROUND 3500-5000 FT AGL PERSISTS THIS AFTN AS
LIGHT NE WINDS START TO BECOME MORE ELY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF -SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AFTER 03/2100Z ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WITH MORE
STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS THE NRN NECK AND MD/VA EASTERN SHORE. IFR
CIGS OF 500-1000 FT AGL ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS PRECIP BEGINS
AND THEN PERSISTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE SHOULD BE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WED
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER SE VA/NE NC WHERE THE CIGS MAY BREAK UP
NICELY. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE
REGION WED AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
THE CHANCE OF RAIN INCREASES LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN
OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING. MODELS ARE
TRENDING WARMER SLIGHTLY LONGER WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A
TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX WITH SLEET FROM NW TO SE AS THU
PROGRESSES AND EVENTUALLY TO ALL SNOW BY LATE THU AFTN/EARLY
EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...A GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. THE RESULT IS LIGHT E-SE WINDS
AOB 10 KT OVER THE WATER. WAVES GENERALLY 1-2 FT AND SEAS 2-4 FT.
SW WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS OVER THE WATERS.
LLJ INCREASES TO 50+KT TONIGHT...BUT WAA AND COLD WATER WILL
RESULT IN A SHARP INVERSION OVER THE WATER. THIS WILL PREVENT THE
HIGHER VELOCITY WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE WATER. THUS...SCA
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS OF 20
KT LATE TONIGHT. HAVE CAPPED WINDS AT 15 KT IN THE BAY AND 20 KT
IN THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS REMAIN AOB 4 FT. COLD FRONT SLOWLY
CROSSES THE WATER NW TO SE WEDS...BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR
THE NC/VA BORDER WEDS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. FLOW BECOMES NLY POST FRONTAL...BUT DECREASES TO AROUND
10-15 KT AS CAA LAGS BEHIND. FRONT CLEARS THE WATERS LATE WEDS
NIGHT...WITH CAA SURGE ARRIVING INTO THE REGION LATE WEDS NIGHT.
SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL WATER THURS MORNING...PERSISTING THRU
THURS NIGHT. GUIDANCE INDICATING LOW END GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
LATE THURS INTO THURS NIGHT IN THE SRN COASTAL WATERS AND
CURRITUCK SOUND...CLOSEST TO THE STRONGEST GRADIENT. SEAS BUILD TO
4-7 FT (UP TO 8 FT SRN COASTAL WATERS) THURS-THURS NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FRI...RESULTING IN DIMINISHING
WINDS AND SLOWLY SUBSIDING SEAS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL THRU
THE WEEKEND THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...SAM







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 032124
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
424 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG THE FRONT AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ONLY VERY LIGHT RAIN OVR THE LWR MD ERN SHR THIS AFTN...AS WEAK
UPR AIR ENERGY WAS MOVNG EWRD ACRS THIS REGION. OTHERWISE...CLOUDY
SKY EVERYWHERE WITH TEMPS RANGING FM THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S LATE
THIS AFTN. WINDS WERE SE OR S ARND 5 MPH. ACTUAL WARM FRONT WITH
INCREASING LO LVL MOIST AND BETTER VERTICAL MOTION WILL LIFT THRU
THE AREA LATER THIS EVENG INTO WED MORNG. MAINLY HAVE LIKELY POPS
(60-70%) ACRS THE NRN HALF OF THE REGION...WITH CHC POPS (30-50%)
ACRS THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY RISE
OVRNGT...AS WINDS TURN MORE SSW AND INCREASE. RDGS SHOULD RISE
AT LEAST INTO THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WARM FRONT TO LIFT NE THROUGH THE FA TONIGHT. BEST MOISTURE AND
UVM ACRS CNTRL/NRN PORTIONS OF FA...THUS THE HIGHEST POPS...W/
WITH CHC POPS LIMITED TO SRN VA/NE NC. BULK OF THE RA LIFTS TO NRN
PORTION BY LT AT NGT. LO TEMPS LIKELY ARND 00Z/04 WITH RISING
TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPS BY 12Z/04 WED RISE INTO THE MID/UPR
40S TO MID 50S SE.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRONG SSW FLOW.
THERE RMN TIMING ISSUES W/ THE APPROACHING CDFNT FM THE NNW...HOWEVER
A GFS/ECMWF BLEND LOOKS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS
(40-70%) BY AFTN ACRS NRN TIER OF FA...W/ SLGT CHC TO CHC (20-40%)
TO THE S. FOR NOW...LEAVING OUT ANY MENTION OF T ACRS SRN VA/NE
NC...SINCE IT APRS MOST OF MOISTURE CONFINED TO W/ AND BEHIND THE
FNT. HI TEMPS FM THE U50S/L60S N TO L70S IN FAR SE VA/NE NC.

JUST ONE YEAR AGO...MARCH 2ND-3RD...WENT FM 60S TO L70S (THE 2ND)
TO A FEW INCHES OF SN (ON THE 3RD). THIS MAY OCCUR AGN THIS WK
(WED-THU).

FCST CHALLENGES CONT WED NGT THROUGH THU AS CDFNT SETTLES SSE
THROUGH THE FA...AND ANOTHER AREA OF ARCTIC SFC HI PRES BUILDS TWD
THE MS/OH VLYS. WILL LEAN TWD THE FASTER ARRIVAL OF COLDER SFC
AIR FM THE NNW (GFS/ECMWF) BY LT WED NGT AND CONTG ON THU. THE
MDLS EACH HINT AT WK SFC LO PRES TRACKING THROUGH NC AS S/W ALOFT
(IN FAST SWLY FLO) IS SHEARED AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE RGN. ALL
THIS LEADS TO A TRANSITION (WRT P-TYPE) LT WED/THU. RA...BECOMES
MIXED W/ IP-CHANGING TO SN/IP THEN ENDING AS SN FM NNW TO SE ACRS
THE FA (LASTLY ACRS NE NC BY MID OR LT AFTN THU). TIMING THOSE
TRANSITIONS AT THIS POINT VERY DIFFICULT...THOUGH CURRENTLY EXPECT
A LEAST LGT SN ACCUMS FOR AREAS N OF THE NC/VA BORDER BEFORE THE
DAY ENDS THU (T-2 INCHES S...1-4 INCHES N (HIGHEST PTNTTLY FM
RIC-SBY)). ALONG W/ THE TRANSITION TO WINTRY PCPN...GUSTY NNE WNDS
WILL BE PUSHING COLDER AIR INTO THE RGN. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM ARND
30F N TO THE LOW/MID 40S FAR S. TEMPS THU STEADY OR FALLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
AND A RETURN TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMAL TEMPS.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL CONSENSUS WITH THE UPPER FLOW
THRU THE EXTENDED...CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING/BLOCKING OVER THE WRN
CONUS/ERN PACIFIC AND BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN
CONUS. TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...COLD/DRY 1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THURSDAYS COLD FRONT LOCATES
OFF THE COAST...EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE NRN GULF. H85 TEMPS DROP
TO AROUND -8C FRI (~-1 STD DEV)...SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN DEPICTED 24
HRS AGO. HIGHS FRI GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 30S INLAND AND UPPER
20S-LOW 30S COASTAL AREAS. AIRMASS MODIFIES FRI NIGHT-SAT AS THE
COLD/DRY AIR RETREATS NWD. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
SAT...WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING TO MODERATE LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES. TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-
MID 40S COASTAL AREAS. SKY AVG MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION SUN...RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY
AND WARMING CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 50S INLAND AND LOW
40S TO UPPER 40S COASTAL AREAS. ATTENTION THEN TURNS OUT
WEST...WHERE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE HANDLING SPLIT/BLOCKY
FLOW AND SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE DESERT SW/BAJA. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT NOW THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF HAS TRENDED DRY SUN NIGHT-EARLY
NEXT WEEK...MATCHING THE GFS AND ENSEMBLES. HOWEVER...SPLIT FLOW
CONTINUES RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRONT OVER
THE GULF WILL ATTEMPT TO AMPLIFY AND LIFT NWD AS SRN STREAM ENERGY
APPROACHES...BUT WILL KEEP POPS SILENT. HIGHS EARLY NEXT WEEK (MON
AND TUES) CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE MID 50S INLAND AND LOW-UPPER
40S COASTAL AREAS THANKS TO COLD WATER.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN OVERCAST DECK AROUND 3500-5000 FT AGL PERSISTS THIS AFTN AS
LIGHT NE WINDS START TO BECOME MORE ELY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF -SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AFTER 03/2100Z ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WITH MORE
STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS THE NRN NECK AND MD/VA EASTERN SHORE. IFR
CIGS OF 500-1000 FT AGL ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS PRECIP BEGINS
AND THEN PERSISTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE SHOULD BE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WED
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER SE VA/NE NC WHERE THE CIGS MAY BREAK UP
NICELY. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE
REGION WED AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
THE CHANCE OF RAIN INCREASES LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN
OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING. MODELS ARE
TRENDING WARMER SLIGHTLY LONGER WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A
TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX WITH SLEET FROM NW TO SE AS THU
PROGRESSES AND EVENTUALLY TO ALL SNOW BY LATE THU AFTN/EARLY
EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...A GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. THE RESULT IS LIGHT E-SE WINDS
AOB 10 KT OVER THE WATER. WAVES GENERALLY 1-2 FT AND SEAS 2-4 FT.
SW WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS OVER THE WATERS.
LLJ INCREASES TO 50+KT TONIGHT...BUT WAA AND COLD WATER WILL
RESULT IN A SHARP INVERSION OVER THE WATER. THIS WILL PREVENT THE
HIGHER VELOCITY WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE WATER. THUS...SCA
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS OF 20
KT LATE TONIGHT. HAVE CAPPED WINDS AT 15 KT IN THE BAY AND 20 KT
IN THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS REMAIN AOB 4 FT. COLD FRONT SLOWLY
CROSSES THE WATER NW TO SE WEDS...BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR
THE NC/VA BORDER WEDS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. FLOW BECOMES NLY POST FRONTAL...BUT DECREASES TO AROUND
10-15 KT AS CAA LAGS BEHIND. FRONT CLEARS THE WATERS LATE WEDS
NIGHT...WITH CAA SURGE ARRIVING INTO THE REGION LATE WEDS NIGHT.
SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL WATER THURS MORNING...PERSISTING THRU
THURS NIGHT. GUIDANCE INDICATING LOW END GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
LATE THURS INTO THURS NIGHT IN THE SRN COASTAL WATERS AND
CURRITUCK SOUND...CLOSEST TO THE STRONGEST GRADIENT. SEAS BUILD TO
4-7 FT (UP TO 8 FT SRN COASTAL WATERS) THURS-THURS NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FRI...RESULTING IN DIMINISHING
WINDS AND SLOWLY SUBSIDING SEAS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL THRU
THE WEEKEND THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...SAM






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 032044
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
344 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATE THIS MORNG...HI PRES WAS CNTRD RIGHT ALONG THE CST. FLOW
ALOFT IS GENERALLY FM THE W...WELL OUT AHEAD OF BROAD TROF OVER
THE WRN CONUS. TEMPS WERE SLOWLY CLIMBING THRU THE 30S TO NEAR 40
DEGREES OVR THE AKQ CWA...WITH DWPTS RANGING FM THE MID TEENS TO
THE UPR 20S. RDR SHOWED ONLY VRY LGT MIXED PCPN OR RAIN OVR THE
MTNS OF WEST VA AND SW VA. CNTR OF HI PRES WILL PUSH OFFSHR THIS
AFTN...BUT LOW LEVEL CAD REMAINS OVER THE FA. A CLOUDY SKY WILL
LIMIT TEMP RISES THIS AFTN...WITH HIGHS ONLY RANGING FM THE MID
30S EXTRM NW TO THE MID 40S OVR NE NC. BETTER COVERAGE OF PCPN IS
EXPECTED MID/LATE AFTN...WITH BEST PCPN CHCS (50-60%) FOR MAINLY
LGT RAIN ACRS NRN AND WRN AREAS. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZRA OVR FAR NW AREAS BETWEEN 16-20Z
AS TEMPS STRUGGLE TO REACH/SURPASS 32F THRU EARLY THIS AFTN.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ATTM GIVEN MARGINAL TEMPS AND A WARM DAY
YESTERDAY. OTHERWISE...P-TYPE TO BE ALL RAIN OVR THE REGION THIS
AFTN/EVENG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WARM FRONT TO LIFT NE THROUGH THE FA TONIGHT. BEST MOISTURE AND
UVM ACRS CNTRL/NRN PORTIONS OF FA...THUS THE HIGHEST POPS...W/
WITH CHC POPS LIMITED TO SRN VA/NE NC. BULK OF THE RA LIFTS TO NRN
PORTION BY LT AT NGT. LO TEMPS LIKELY ARND 00Z/04 WITH RISING
TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPS BY 12Z/04 WED RISE INTO THE MID/UPR
40S TO MID 50S SE.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRONG SSW FLOW.
THERE RMN TIMING ISSUES W/ THE APPROACHING CDFNT FM THE NNW...HOWEVER
A GFS/ECMWF BLEND LOOKS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS
(40-70%) BY AFTN ACRS NRN TIER OF FA...W/ SLGT CHC TO CHC (20-40%)
TO THE S. FOR NOW...LEAVING OUT ANY MENTION OF T ACRS SRN VA/NE
NC...SINCE IT APRS MOST OF MOISTURE CONFINED TO W/ AND BEHIND THE
FNT. HI TEMPS FM THE U50S/L60S N TO L70S IN FAR SE VA/NE NC.

JUST ONE YEAR AGO...MARCH 2ND-3RD...WENT FM 60S TO L70S (THE 2ND)
TO A FEW INCHES OF SN (ON THE 3RD). THIS MAY OCCUR AGN THIS WK
(WED-THU).

FCST CHALLENGES CONT WED NGT THROUGH THU AS CDFNT SETTLES SSE
THROUGH THE FA...AND ANOTHER AREA OF ARCTIC SFC HI PRES BUILDS TWD
THE MS/OH VLYS. WILL LEAN TWD THE FASTER ARRIVAL OF COLDER SFC
AIR FM THE NNW (GFS/ECMWF) BY LT WED NGT AND CONTG ON THU. THE
MDLS EACH HINT AT WK SFC LO PRES TRACKING THROUGH NC AS S/W ALOFT
(IN FAST SWLY FLO) IS SHEARED AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE RGN. ALL
THIS LEADS TO A TRANSITION (WRT P-TYPE) LT WED/THU. RA...BECOMES
MIXED W/ IP-CHANGING TO SN/IP THEN ENDING AS SN FM NNW TO SE ACRS
THE FA (LASTLY ACRS NE NC BY MID OR LT AFTN THU). TIMING THOSE
TRANSITIONS AT THIS POINT VERY DIFFICULT...THOUGH CURRENTLY EXPECT
A LEAST LGT SN ACCUMS FOR AREAS N OF THE NC/VA BORDER BEFORE THE
DAY ENDS THU (T-2 INCHES S...1-4 INCHES N (HIGHEST PTNTTLY FM
RIC-SBY)). ALONG W/ THE TRANSITION TO WINTRY PCPN...GUSTY NNE WNDS
WILL BE PUSHING COLDER AIR INTO THE RGN. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM ARND
30F N TO THE LOW/MID 40S FAR S. TEMPS THU STEADY OR FALLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
AND A RETURN TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMAL TEMPS.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL CONSENSUS WITH THE UPPER FLOW
THRU THE EXTENDED...CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING/BLOCKING OVER THE WRN
CONUS/ERN PACIFIC AND BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN
CONUS. TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...COLD/DRY 1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THURSDAYS COLD FRONT LOCATES
OFF THE COAST...EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE NRN GULF. H85 TEMPS DROP
TO AROUND -8C FRI (~-1 STD DEV)...SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN DEPICTED 24
HRS AGO. HIGHS FRI GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 30S INLAND AND UPPER
20S-LOW 30S COASTAL AREAS. AIRMASS MODIFIES FRI NIGHT-SAT AS THE
COLD/DRY AIR RETREATS NWD. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
SAT...WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING TO MODERATE LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES. TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-
MID 40S COASTAL AREAS. SKY AVG MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION SUN...RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY
AND WARMING CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 50S INLAND AND LOW
40S TO UPPER 40S COASTAL AREAS. ATTENTION THEN TURNS OUT
WEST...WHERE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE HANDLING SPLIT/BLOCKY
FLOW AND SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE DESERT SW/BAJA. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT NOW THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF HAS TRENDED DRY SUN NIGHT-EARLY
NEXT WEEK...MATCHING THE GFS AND ENSEMBLES. HOWEVER...SPLIT FLOW
CONTINUES RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRONT OVER
THE GULF WILL ATTEMPT TO AMPLIFY AND LIFT NWD AS SRN STREAM ENERGY
APPROACHES...BUT WILL KEEP POPS SILENT. HIGHS EARLY NEXT WEEK (MON
AND TUES) CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE MID 50S INLAND AND LOW-UPPER
40S COASTAL AREAS THANKS TO COLD WATER.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN OVERCAST DECK AROUND 3500-5000 FT AGL PERSISTS THIS AFTN AS
LIGHT NE WINDS START TO BECOME MORE ELY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF -SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AFTER 03/2100Z ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WITH MORE
STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS THE NRN NECK AND MD/VA EASTERN SHORE. IFR
CIGS OF 500-1000 FT AGL ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS PRECIP BEGINS
AND THEN PERSISTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE SHOULD BE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WED
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER SE VA/NE NC WHERE THE CIGS MAY BREAK UP
NICELY. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE
REGION WED AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
THE CHANCE OF RAIN INCREASES LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN
OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING. MODELS ARE
TRENDING WARMER SLIGHTLY LONGER WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A
TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX WITH SLEET FROM NW TO SE AS THU
PROGRESSES AND EVENTUALLY TO ALL SNOW BY LATE THU AFTN/EARLY
EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...A GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. THE RESULT IS LIGHT E-SE WINDS
AOB 10 KT OVER THE WATER. WAVES GENERALLY 1-2 FT AND SEAS 2-4 FT.
SW WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS OVER THE WATERS.
LLJ INCREASES TO 50+KT TONIGHT...BUT WAA AND COLD WATER WILL
RESULT IN A SHARP INVERSION OVER THE WATER. THIS WILL PREVENT THE
HIGHER VELOCITY WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE WATER. THUS...SCA
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS OF 20
KT LATE TONIGHT. HAVE CAPPED WINDS AT 15 KT IN THE BAY AND 20 KT
IN THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS REMAIN AOB 4 FT. COLD FRONT SLOWLY
CROSSES THE WATER NW TO SE WEDS...BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR
THE NC/VA BORDER WEDS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. FLOW BECOMES NLY POST FRONTAL...BUT DECREASES TO AROUND
10-15 KT AS CAA LAGS BEHIND. FRONT CLEARS THE WATERS LATE WEDS
NIGHT...WITH CAA SURGE ARRIVING INTO THE REGION LATE WEDS NIGHT.
SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL WATER THURS MORNING...PERSISTING THRU
THURS NIGHT. GUIDANCE INDICATING LOW END GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
LATE THURS INTO THURS NIGHT IN THE SRN COASTAL WATERS AND
CURRITUCK SOUND...CLOSEST TO THE STRONGEST GRADIENT. SEAS BUILD TO
4-7 FT (UP TO 8 FT SRN COASTAL WATERS) THURS-THURS NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FRI...RESULTING IN DIMINISHING
WINDS AND SLOWLY SUBSIDING SEAS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL THRU
THE WEEKEND THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ/SAM






000
FXUS61 KLWX 032029
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
329 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR
THURSDAY LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

FIRST BATCH OF FREEZING RAIN MIXED WITH A LITTLE SLEET WILL PUSH
OUT OF THE BALTIMORE METRO AREA AND BE REPLACED WITH INTERMITTENT
FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT FREEZING RAIN THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. WARMER AIR HAS BEEN SLOW TO PUSH NORTH AS WE HAVE SEEN
MUCH OF THIS WINTER. THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE WARMING HAS OCCURRED
OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT COLD
WEDGE HAS REMAINED IN PLACE FURTHER NORTH.

AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF BALTIMORE...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE MASON DIXON LINE WILL SEE THE GREATEST IMPACT FROM ICING WHICH
COULD SEE UPWARDS OF 0.10-0.15 INCHES OF ICE. MOST IMPACTS WILL BE
TO ELEVATED STRUCTURES...SIDE WALKS AND UNTREATED ROADWAYS.

THERE IS STILL HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WARM ADVECTION WILL WIN OUT AND
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING LATER TONIGHT IN ALL
AREAS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXPECT LIGHT RAIN...SOME FOG AND MILDER
TEMPERATURES.

A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MILDER AIR WILL PUSH NORTH
INTO THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH NOT TO THE EXTENT THAT PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTED. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE SHROUDED IN CLOUD COVER
AND PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE
40S IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH PERHAPS THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S CENTRAL
VA TO SOUTHERN MD. KEPT POPS CATEGORICAL ALL DAY WEDNESDAY.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN AS LIQUID IN ALL AREAS THROUGH 00Z
THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

GDNC CONTS TO PAINT AN ANOMOLOUS PICTURE...DRAINING COLD AIR SOUTH
WED NGT IN WAKE OF CDFNT. WHILE THERES NOT A STRONG LOW OR PVA...
THERES PLENTY OF FORCING AVBL THX TO STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE AND RRQ
OF UPR JETMAX. A STREAM OF AMPLE MSTR WL BE OVERRUNNING THE COLD
AIR...SOURCED FROM THE WRN GLFMEX AND PACIFIC. THEREFORE...IT
SEEMS WELL WITHIN REASON TO HAVE QPF CONTG WHILE TEMPS DROP BELOW
FREEZING. THAT SUPPORTS A SCENARIO WHERE RAIN WILL CHG TO SNOW.

THERE ARE STILL TIMING QUESTIONS AS WELL AS WHETHER THE ENTIRE
COLUMN WILL COOL IN UNISON. IF NOT...THEN PTYPE MAY BE MORE PL AND
LESS SNOW. THAT IS MORE OF A CONCERN ACROSS CENTRAL VA AND SRN MD.
IN ADDITION...THERE IS STILL A RANGE OF SOLUTIONS WRT HOW MUCH QPF
WL FALL AS SOMETHING FROZEN. SOLUTIONS SEEM TO BE COMING IN COOLER
AND WETTER. GIVEN THE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES...DO NOT WISH TO
UNDERSTIMATE POTENTIAL. FCST ACCUMS HV BEEN RAISED A BIT ACRS THE
NORTH...WHERE STDY SNOW SEEMS APPARENT. DID NOT DO LIKEWISE ACRS
THE S DUE TO THE PL POTENTIAL. REGARDLESS...AT THE 50 PCT
CONFIDENCE LVL...SEE ENUF EVIDENCE TO RAISE A WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA.

PCPN WL CONT INTO THU AFTN. COLD AIR CONTS TO STREAM SWD THU NGT
AFTR PCPN ENDS. STUCK CLOSE TO A PRVS FCST/MOS CONSENSUS FOR
MIN-T THU NGT. HV PLENTY OF LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER A VERY COLD START FRIDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE
TO RISE DURING THE DAY IN THE CONTINUED WEAK CAA...WITH HIGHS
REMAINING BELOW FREEZING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. DESPITE THE RETURN
OF SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
VERY COLD. WENT A LITTLE WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY DUE TO THE INCREASED WEAK WAA.

WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTH
SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LITTLE
EFFECT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER...EXCEPT FOR A WIND SHIFT. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FAR WEST...BUT LEFT POPS
OUT OF FORECAST UNTIL A CLEARER SIGNAL APPEARS. BEYOND SATURDAY
MODEL GUIDANCE BECOMES NOISIER WITH VARYING MODEL SOLUTIONS...SO
WENT WITH A BLEND OF HPC AND MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SUB VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL SITES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY
FROM KIAD NORTH TO KMRB...KBWI AND KMTN. FRZRA OR FZDZ WILL BE
MOST COMMON WITH THE MAJORITY OF ICING ISSUES AT KBWI AND KMTN.
ALL PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO PLAIN RAIN LATER THIS EVENING
EXCEPT LATER TONIGHT NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE. PATCHY FOG...MVFR
TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY WITH PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED.

AOB IFR WL CONT WED NGT-THU DUE TO MAINLY SNOW. IMPRVG CONDS THU
NGT.

DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY AVIATION CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...

SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE INTO EVENING ESPECIALLY OVER THE
BAY. SCA CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER A PORTION OF THE WATERS ON
WEDNESDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED DUE TO SOME FROZEN
PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING THEN RAIN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

RAIN AT THE BGNG OF WED EVNG WL TRANSITION TO SNW AND PSBLY SOME
PL. AS COLD AIR DRAINS SWD...MIXING WL IMPRV. HV RAISED A SCA WED
NGT TO ACCT FOR THAT...WHICH LKLY WL NEED TO CONT INTO AT LEAST THU.

WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD... DO
NOT ANTICIPATE ANY MARINE CONCERNS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AROUND A HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR HEAVIER AMOUNTS THAT COULD
APPROACH 1.0 - 1.5 INCHES ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 40S EVERYWHERE /AND 50S IN THE RAPPAHANNOCK
AND JAMES RIVER BASINS/...PROMOTING SNOWMELT. THE SNOWPACK IS
CURRENTLY ESTIMATED TO BE HOLDING ANYWHERE FROM A HALF INCH OF WATER
IN THE CACAPON/LOST RIVER BASIN TO AROUND AN INCH AND A HALF IN THE
SOUTH BRANCH POTOMAC BASIN. MODELING INDICATES NOT ALL OF THIS SNOW
WATER WILL BE RELEASED...ESPECIALLY GIVEN A TOTAL LACK OF SUNSHINE.

GIVEN THIS...THE COMBINATION OF SNOWMELT AND RAIN WILL PROMOTE RISES
ON AREA RIVERS...BUT AT THIS TIME STREAMS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN
WITHIN-BANK.

SOME COMPLICATING FACTORS TO KEEP IN MIND...IF THE CHANGEOVER FROM
RAIN TO WINTRY PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY EVENING OCCURS LATER THAN
EXPECTED...CONCERNS MAY BECOME HEIGHTENED. ALSO MANY OF OUR AREA
STREAMS ARE COVERED WITH ICE OR EVEN PARTIALLY FROZEN. THESE EFFECTS
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL ROLE IN AFFECTING RUNOFF.

LASTLY...AS WE SAW WITH THE RECENT RAIN/ICE/MINOR SNOWMELT...ANY
AMOUNT OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION STANDS A GOOD CHANCE OF CAUSING MINOR
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING...AS NORMAL DRAINAGE PATTERNS MAY BE BLOCKED
BY PLOWED SNOW.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR DCZ001.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     DCZ001.
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ003>006-011-013-014-501>508.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ016>018.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ003>006-011-013-014-503>508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ016>018.
VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR VAZ026>031-040-052>054-501-503>507.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR VAZ025-036>039-050-051-055>057-502-508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ053-054-505-506.
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR WVZ050>053-055-501>506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ051>053.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...KRW/HTS/MSE
MARINE...KRW/HTS/MSE
HYDROLOGY...JE



000
FXUS61 KLWX 032029
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
329 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR
THURSDAY LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

FIRST BATCH OF FREEZING RAIN MIXED WITH A LITTLE SLEET WILL PUSH
OUT OF THE BALTIMORE METRO AREA AND BE REPLACED WITH INTERMITTENT
FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT FREEZING RAIN THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. WARMER AIR HAS BEEN SLOW TO PUSH NORTH AS WE HAVE SEEN
MUCH OF THIS WINTER. THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE WARMING HAS OCCURRED
OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT COLD
WEDGE HAS REMAINED IN PLACE FURTHER NORTH.

AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF BALTIMORE...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE MASON DIXON LINE WILL SEE THE GREATEST IMPACT FROM ICING WHICH
COULD SEE UPWARDS OF 0.10-0.15 INCHES OF ICE. MOST IMPACTS WILL BE
TO ELEVATED STRUCTURES...SIDE WALKS AND UNTREATED ROADWAYS.

THERE IS STILL HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WARM ADVECTION WILL WIN OUT AND
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING LATER TONIGHT IN ALL
AREAS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXPECT LIGHT RAIN...SOME FOG AND MILDER
TEMPERATURES.

A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MILDER AIR WILL PUSH NORTH
INTO THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH NOT TO THE EXTENT THAT PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTED. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE SHROUDED IN CLOUD COVER
AND PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE
40S IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH PERHAPS THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S CENTRAL
VA TO SOUTHERN MD. KEPT POPS CATEGORICAL ALL DAY WEDNESDAY.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN AS LIQUID IN ALL AREAS THROUGH 00Z
THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

GDNC CONTS TO PAINT AN ANOMOLOUS PICTURE...DRAINING COLD AIR SOUTH
WED NGT IN WAKE OF CDFNT. WHILE THERES NOT A STRONG LOW OR PVA...
THERES PLENTY OF FORCING AVBL THX TO STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE AND RRQ
OF UPR JETMAX. A STREAM OF AMPLE MSTR WL BE OVERRUNNING THE COLD
AIR...SOURCED FROM THE WRN GLFMEX AND PACIFIC. THEREFORE...IT
SEEMS WELL WITHIN REASON TO HAVE QPF CONTG WHILE TEMPS DROP BELOW
FREEZING. THAT SUPPORTS A SCENARIO WHERE RAIN WILL CHG TO SNOW.

THERE ARE STILL TIMING QUESTIONS AS WELL AS WHETHER THE ENTIRE
COLUMN WILL COOL IN UNISON. IF NOT...THEN PTYPE MAY BE MORE PL AND
LESS SNOW. THAT IS MORE OF A CONCERN ACROSS CENTRAL VA AND SRN MD.
IN ADDITION...THERE IS STILL A RANGE OF SOLUTIONS WRT HOW MUCH QPF
WL FALL AS SOMETHING FROZEN. SOLUTIONS SEEM TO BE COMING IN COOLER
AND WETTER. GIVEN THE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES...DO NOT WISH TO
UNDERSTIMATE POTENTIAL. FCST ACCUMS HV BEEN RAISED A BIT ACRS THE
NORTH...WHERE STDY SNOW SEEMS APPARENT. DID NOT DO LIKEWISE ACRS
THE S DUE TO THE PL POTENTIAL. REGARDLESS...AT THE 50 PCT
CONFIDENCE LVL...SEE ENUF EVIDENCE TO RAISE A WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA.

PCPN WL CONT INTO THU AFTN. COLD AIR CONTS TO STREAM SWD THU NGT
AFTR PCPN ENDS. STUCK CLOSE TO A PRVS FCST/MOS CONSENSUS FOR
MIN-T THU NGT. HV PLENTY OF LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER A VERY COLD START FRIDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE
TO RISE DURING THE DAY IN THE CONTINUED WEAK CAA...WITH HIGHS
REMAINING BELOW FREEZING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. DESPITE THE RETURN
OF SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
VERY COLD. WENT A LITTLE WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY DUE TO THE INCREASED WEAK WAA.

WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTH
SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LITTLE
EFFECT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER...EXCEPT FOR A WIND SHIFT. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FAR WEST...BUT LEFT POPS
OUT OF FORECAST UNTIL A CLEARER SIGNAL APPEARS. BEYOND SATURDAY
MODEL GUIDANCE BECOMES NOISIER WITH VARYING MODEL SOLUTIONS...SO
WENT WITH A BLEND OF HPC AND MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SUB VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL SITES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY
FROM KIAD NORTH TO KMRB...KBWI AND KMTN. FRZRA OR FZDZ WILL BE
MOST COMMON WITH THE MAJORITY OF ICING ISSUES AT KBWI AND KMTN.
ALL PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO PLAIN RAIN LATER THIS EVENING
EXCEPT LATER TONIGHT NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE. PATCHY FOG...MVFR
TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY WITH PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED.

AOB IFR WL CONT WED NGT-THU DUE TO MAINLY SNOW. IMPRVG CONDS THU
NGT.

DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY AVIATION CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...

SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE INTO EVENING ESPECIALLY OVER THE
BAY. SCA CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER A PORTION OF THE WATERS ON
WEDNESDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED DUE TO SOME FROZEN
PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING THEN RAIN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

RAIN AT THE BGNG OF WED EVNG WL TRANSITION TO SNW AND PSBLY SOME
PL. AS COLD AIR DRAINS SWD...MIXING WL IMPRV. HV RAISED A SCA WED
NGT TO ACCT FOR THAT...WHICH LKLY WL NEED TO CONT INTO AT LEAST THU.

WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD... DO
NOT ANTICIPATE ANY MARINE CONCERNS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AROUND A HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR HEAVIER AMOUNTS THAT COULD
APPROACH 1.0 - 1.5 INCHES ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 40S EVERYWHERE /AND 50S IN THE RAPPAHANNOCK
AND JAMES RIVER BASINS/...PROMOTING SNOWMELT. THE SNOWPACK IS
CURRENTLY ESTIMATED TO BE HOLDING ANYWHERE FROM A HALF INCH OF WATER
IN THE CACAPON/LOST RIVER BASIN TO AROUND AN INCH AND A HALF IN THE
SOUTH BRANCH POTOMAC BASIN. MODELING INDICATES NOT ALL OF THIS SNOW
WATER WILL BE RELEASED...ESPECIALLY GIVEN A TOTAL LACK OF SUNSHINE.

GIVEN THIS...THE COMBINATION OF SNOWMELT AND RAIN WILL PROMOTE RISES
ON AREA RIVERS...BUT AT THIS TIME STREAMS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN
WITHIN-BANK.

SOME COMPLICATING FACTORS TO KEEP IN MIND...IF THE CHANGEOVER FROM
RAIN TO WINTRY PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY EVENING OCCURS LATER THAN
EXPECTED...CONCERNS MAY BECOME HEIGHTENED. ALSO MANY OF OUR AREA
STREAMS ARE COVERED WITH ICE OR EVEN PARTIALLY FROZEN. THESE EFFECTS
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL ROLE IN AFFECTING RUNOFF.

LASTLY...AS WE SAW WITH THE RECENT RAIN/ICE/MINOR SNOWMELT...ANY
AMOUNT OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION STANDS A GOOD CHANCE OF CAUSING MINOR
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING...AS NORMAL DRAINAGE PATTERNS MAY BE BLOCKED
BY PLOWED SNOW.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR DCZ001.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     DCZ001.
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ003>006-011-013-014-501>508.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ016>018.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ003>006-011-013-014-503>508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ016>018.
VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR VAZ026>031-040-052>054-501-503>507.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR VAZ025-036>039-050-051-055>057-502-508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ053-054-505-506.
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR WVZ050>053-055-501>506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ051>053.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...KRW/HTS/MSE
MARINE...KRW/HTS/MSE
HYDROLOGY...JE




000
FXUS61 KLWX 032029
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
329 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR
THURSDAY LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

FIRST BATCH OF FREEZING RAIN MIXED WITH A LITTLE SLEET WILL PUSH
OUT OF THE BALTIMORE METRO AREA AND BE REPLACED WITH INTERMITTENT
FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT FREEZING RAIN THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. WARMER AIR HAS BEEN SLOW TO PUSH NORTH AS WE HAVE SEEN
MUCH OF THIS WINTER. THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE WARMING HAS OCCURRED
OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT COLD
WEDGE HAS REMAINED IN PLACE FURTHER NORTH.

AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF BALTIMORE...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE MASON DIXON LINE WILL SEE THE GREATEST IMPACT FROM ICING WHICH
COULD SEE UPWARDS OF 0.10-0.15 INCHES OF ICE. MOST IMPACTS WILL BE
TO ELEVATED STRUCTURES...SIDE WALKS AND UNTREATED ROADWAYS.

THERE IS STILL HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WARM ADVECTION WILL WIN OUT AND
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING LATER TONIGHT IN ALL
AREAS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXPECT LIGHT RAIN...SOME FOG AND MILDER
TEMPERATURES.

A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MILDER AIR WILL PUSH NORTH
INTO THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH NOT TO THE EXTENT THAT PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTED. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE SHROUDED IN CLOUD COVER
AND PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE
40S IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH PERHAPS THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S CENTRAL
VA TO SOUTHERN MD. KEPT POPS CATEGORICAL ALL DAY WEDNESDAY.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN AS LIQUID IN ALL AREAS THROUGH 00Z
THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

GDNC CONTS TO PAINT AN ANOMOLOUS PICTURE...DRAINING COLD AIR SOUTH
WED NGT IN WAKE OF CDFNT. WHILE THERES NOT A STRONG LOW OR PVA...
THERES PLENTY OF FORCING AVBL THX TO STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE AND RRQ
OF UPR JETMAX. A STREAM OF AMPLE MSTR WL BE OVERRUNNING THE COLD
AIR...SOURCED FROM THE WRN GLFMEX AND PACIFIC. THEREFORE...IT
SEEMS WELL WITHIN REASON TO HAVE QPF CONTG WHILE TEMPS DROP BELOW
FREEZING. THAT SUPPORTS A SCENARIO WHERE RAIN WILL CHG TO SNOW.

THERE ARE STILL TIMING QUESTIONS AS WELL AS WHETHER THE ENTIRE
COLUMN WILL COOL IN UNISON. IF NOT...THEN PTYPE MAY BE MORE PL AND
LESS SNOW. THAT IS MORE OF A CONCERN ACROSS CENTRAL VA AND SRN MD.
IN ADDITION...THERE IS STILL A RANGE OF SOLUTIONS WRT HOW MUCH QPF
WL FALL AS SOMETHING FROZEN. SOLUTIONS SEEM TO BE COMING IN COOLER
AND WETTER. GIVEN THE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES...DO NOT WISH TO
UNDERSTIMATE POTENTIAL. FCST ACCUMS HV BEEN RAISED A BIT ACRS THE
NORTH...WHERE STDY SNOW SEEMS APPARENT. DID NOT DO LIKEWISE ACRS
THE S DUE TO THE PL POTENTIAL. REGARDLESS...AT THE 50 PCT
CONFIDENCE LVL...SEE ENUF EVIDENCE TO RAISE A WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA.

PCPN WL CONT INTO THU AFTN. COLD AIR CONTS TO STREAM SWD THU NGT
AFTR PCPN ENDS. STUCK CLOSE TO A PRVS FCST/MOS CONSENSUS FOR
MIN-T THU NGT. HV PLENTY OF LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER A VERY COLD START FRIDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE
TO RISE DURING THE DAY IN THE CONTINUED WEAK CAA...WITH HIGHS
REMAINING BELOW FREEZING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. DESPITE THE RETURN
OF SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
VERY COLD. WENT A LITTLE WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY DUE TO THE INCREASED WEAK WAA.

WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTH
SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LITTLE
EFFECT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER...EXCEPT FOR A WIND SHIFT. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FAR WEST...BUT LEFT POPS
OUT OF FORECAST UNTIL A CLEARER SIGNAL APPEARS. BEYOND SATURDAY
MODEL GUIDANCE BECOMES NOISIER WITH VARYING MODEL SOLUTIONS...SO
WENT WITH A BLEND OF HPC AND MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SUB VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL SITES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY
FROM KIAD NORTH TO KMRB...KBWI AND KMTN. FRZRA OR FZDZ WILL BE
MOST COMMON WITH THE MAJORITY OF ICING ISSUES AT KBWI AND KMTN.
ALL PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO PLAIN RAIN LATER THIS EVENING
EXCEPT LATER TONIGHT NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE. PATCHY FOG...MVFR
TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY WITH PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED.

AOB IFR WL CONT WED NGT-THU DUE TO MAINLY SNOW. IMPRVG CONDS THU
NGT.

DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY AVIATION CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...

SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE INTO EVENING ESPECIALLY OVER THE
BAY. SCA CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER A PORTION OF THE WATERS ON
WEDNESDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED DUE TO SOME FROZEN
PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING THEN RAIN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

RAIN AT THE BGNG OF WED EVNG WL TRANSITION TO SNW AND PSBLY SOME
PL. AS COLD AIR DRAINS SWD...MIXING WL IMPRV. HV RAISED A SCA WED
NGT TO ACCT FOR THAT...WHICH LKLY WL NEED TO CONT INTO AT LEAST THU.

WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD... DO
NOT ANTICIPATE ANY MARINE CONCERNS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AROUND A HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR HEAVIER AMOUNTS THAT COULD
APPROACH 1.0 - 1.5 INCHES ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 40S EVERYWHERE /AND 50S IN THE RAPPAHANNOCK
AND JAMES RIVER BASINS/...PROMOTING SNOWMELT. THE SNOWPACK IS
CURRENTLY ESTIMATED TO BE HOLDING ANYWHERE FROM A HALF INCH OF WATER
IN THE CACAPON/LOST RIVER BASIN TO AROUND AN INCH AND A HALF IN THE
SOUTH BRANCH POTOMAC BASIN. MODELING INDICATES NOT ALL OF THIS SNOW
WATER WILL BE RELEASED...ESPECIALLY GIVEN A TOTAL LACK OF SUNSHINE.

GIVEN THIS...THE COMBINATION OF SNOWMELT AND RAIN WILL PROMOTE RISES
ON AREA RIVERS...BUT AT THIS TIME STREAMS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN
WITHIN-BANK.

SOME COMPLICATING FACTORS TO KEEP IN MIND...IF THE CHANGEOVER FROM
RAIN TO WINTRY PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY EVENING OCCURS LATER THAN
EXPECTED...CONCERNS MAY BECOME HEIGHTENED. ALSO MANY OF OUR AREA
STREAMS ARE COVERED WITH ICE OR EVEN PARTIALLY FROZEN. THESE EFFECTS
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL ROLE IN AFFECTING RUNOFF.

LASTLY...AS WE SAW WITH THE RECENT RAIN/ICE/MINOR SNOWMELT...ANY
AMOUNT OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION STANDS A GOOD CHANCE OF CAUSING MINOR
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING...AS NORMAL DRAINAGE PATTERNS MAY BE BLOCKED
BY PLOWED SNOW.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR DCZ001.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     DCZ001.
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ003>006-011-013-014-501>508.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ016>018.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ003>006-011-013-014-503>508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ016>018.
VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR VAZ026>031-040-052>054-501-503>507.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR VAZ025-036>039-050-051-055>057-502-508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ053-054-505-506.
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR WVZ050>053-055-501>506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ051>053.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...KRW/HTS/MSE
MARINE...KRW/HTS/MSE
HYDROLOGY...JE



000
FXUS61 KRNK 032020
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
320 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL TRACK INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA AND WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL ALLOW FOR A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EST TUESDAY...

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. KFCX WSR-88D SHOWED THAT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION HAS
MOVED EAST OF OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO
OUR NORTHWEST SLIDING EAST. MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN...DRIZZLE AND FOG
EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
PUSHES UP TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. PLAYED POPS HIGHEST IN THE
NORTHWEST TO THE LIGHTEST IN THE SOUTHEAST.  USED A NON-DIURNAL
CURVE FOR TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE MID 30S IN THE NORTHEAST TO NEAR 50 DEGREES IN
THE WEST. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THE
PROBABILITY OF MODERATE RAIN IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA
INCREASES.

WEDNESDAY MORNING STARTS WITH A COLD FRONT SITUATED ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA FROM THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS
THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE. STRONG MOISTURE FLOW INTO THE AREA ON A
50KT TO 60KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL PUSH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES TO 1.0-1.1 INCHES IN THE WEST...AND AS HIGH AS 1.4
INCHES FURTHER EAST...ALL SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
MARCH. DURING THE MORNING...RAIN WILL BE WIDESPREAD WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST LIFT/HEAVIEST RAINFALL PROGGED TO BE
WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...JUST SCRAPPING SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA...PARTICULARLY THE WEST FACING SLOPES. FURTHER EAST...WILL
LIKELY SEE A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT SLOWLY
DRIFTS EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF...DEVELOP A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING SLOWING ITS PROGRESSES SOUTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE QUITE MILD WITH READINGS FROM THE
UPPER 40S IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...

ISSUE THIS PERIOD WILL BE WITH HOW QUICK COLDER AIR ARRIVES IN
TIMING WITH PRECIP. 12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR SLOWER ARRIVAL OF
FRONT BUT EDGE COLDER AIR INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF WV BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME...LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT MOVING NE
WILL AID IN A WARM NOSE PUNCHING BACK WEST TO CHANGE ANY SNOW TO
SLEET BEFORE THE ARCTIC AIR PLUNGES SE AS THE LOW MOVES BY THURSDAY
MORNING.

QPF IS THE ISSUE AND STILL APPEARS THE CORRIDOR OF HIGHER QPF WILL
STRETCH FROM ERN KY THROUGH NORTHERN VA WITH SECONDARY MAX IN THE
PIEDMONT WITH SFC LOW INFLUENCE. WITH WINTRY PRECIP...WENT CLOSER TO
THE 12Z GFS WITH A BLEND OF ECMWF ON TEMPS. WITH THIS IN MIND
CONFIDENCE IS 50/50 THAT OUR EXTREME NRN CWA FROM GREENBRIER TO
AMHERST WILL FLIRT WITH WARNING LEVEL SNOW/SLEET BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...AND IN COLLABORATION WITH WFO STERLING AND WFO
CHARLESTON ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FROM GREENBRIER TO AMHERST.
EXPECT THE HIGHER TOTALS TO OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WRN
GREENBRIER...NE GREENBRIER INTO THE ALLEGHANYS OF BATH...TO THE BLUE
RIDGE MTNS OF AMHERST. OVERALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE IN THE 2 TO 6 INCH
RANGE...THOUGH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF
THE COLDER AIR SURGES SWD QUICKER WITH PRECIP IN PLACE.

THIS WATCH RUNS FROM MIDNIGHT WED NIGHT THROUGH 7PM THURSDAY.

FURTHER SOUTH EXPECT RAIN TO WINTRY MIX THROUGH THURSDAY. COULD SEE
A WINTER ADVISORY GOING UP FOR THE REST OF THE CWA FOR
THURSDAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS THE NC FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT INTO SRN VA.

TEMPS WED NIGHT WILL SLOWLY FALL...AND MAY STAY STEADY OUT EAST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPS WILL THEN DROP ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA
THURSDAY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKING SHAPE. 8H TEMPS FALL FROM
+6C IN THE PIEDMONT/-6C IN THE WV MTNS AT 12Z THU TO ZERO EAST TO
-12C WEST BY 00Z FRI. SO THE LOWS THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE THE HIGHS
THURSDAY FOR SOME OF OUR MTN COUNTIES...WITH TEMPS FALLING TO 20 BY
DUSK THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EST TUESDAY...

THURSDAY EVENING...THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EXITING FRONT WILL HAVE EXITED THE REGION...OR JUST BE ON THE
EASTERN FRINGES. ALSO...ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...NORTHWEST
FLOW UPSLOPE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. BY MIDNIGHT...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS AND VEERS
MORE NORTHERLY...MUCH LESS CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
AROUND ZERO TO PLUS FIVE OVER SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND PLUS FIVE
TO LOWER TEENS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA. ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...LOWS WILL BE IN THE
TEENS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT WITH THE LOW TEMPERATURES WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL FLIRT WITH THE ADVISORY THRESHOLD OF FIVE BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION...WITH
ITS CENTER SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE RESULT
WILL BE A DRY FORECAST...WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. AFTER HIGHS
ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE MORE IN THE 40S WEST TO LOWER
50S EAST.

THERE HAS BEEN CONSIDERABLE VARIATION IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE DURING
THE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIME PERIOD. WHILE EACH IS FAIRLY
CONSISTENT THAT A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN
THIRD OF CONUS...THERE HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENCIES AS TO WHETHER OR
NOT...AND WHEN...AND WHAT TRACK A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MAY GET
PICKED UP ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS TROUGH AND PROGRESS NORTHEAST
ACROSS OUR AREA. THE GFS HAS NOT BEEN FAVORABLE OF THIS OCCURRENCE.
THE ECMWF WAS OPTIMISTIC ON AN ARRIVAL A SOUTHERN SYSTEM ON MONDAY
IN YESTERDAYS SOLUTION. TODAYS SOLUTION PLACES THAT EVENT ABOUT 24
HOURS LATER ON TUESDAY. OUR FORECAST TODAY WILL REFLECT TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING TO MODERATE THROUGH MONDAY...WITH THE THINKING THAT THE
DEVELOPING TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST...AND WE WILL
CONTINUE IN WARM AIR ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE. IT WILL ALSO REFLECT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA WHERE 850 MB FLOW WILL BE MORE W-NW.
IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
IMPACTING THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EST TUESDAY...

MVFR CONDITIONS WITH POCKETS OF IFR IN PRECIPITATION...CLOUDS AND
FOG THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
ALOFT WILL BRING ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING
DRIZZLE ACROSS OUR AREA. TRIMMED BACK AND NARROWED THE WINDOW FOR
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE TAFS FOR TONIGHT. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL BE IFR TO LIFR FOR MUCH OF THE AREA IN LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT ALL OF THE REGION
WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA BY WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH ABUNDANT RAIN. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED FORECAST...

 WINTER PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME THE MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION TYPES ARE
SNOW AND SLEET.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR
WEATHER.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 300 PM EST TUESDAY...

FLOODING THREAT APPEARS TO STAY JUST WEST AND NORTH OF OUR CWA AS
MODELS HAVE 1.5" OR MORE IN 12 HRS PROJECTED HERE. PLUS ARRIVAL OF
COLDER AIR WITH BRUNT OF QPF MAY LIMIT RAINFALL BEFORE IT CHANGES
TO SLEET THEN SNOW. RIVER FORECAST CENTERS AS OF THIS MORNING WERE
FORECASTING A RISE TO JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT ALDERSON IN
GREENBRIER COUNTY...TAKING INTO ACCOUNT GUIDANCE FROM LAST NIGHT.
WITH LESS QPF THIS MAY BE BACKED OFF. GIVEN SNOW MELT AND TIMING
OF COLDER AIR TO CHANGEOVER THERE SHOULD ONLY BE RISES ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS...BUT THE THREAT OF FLOODING IS NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR VAZ020-024-035.
NC...NONE.
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR WVZ507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS/KK
HYDROLOGY...WP



000
FXUS61 KRNK 032020
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
320 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL TRACK INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA AND WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL ALLOW FOR A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EST TUESDAY...

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. KFCX WSR-88D SHOWED THAT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION HAS
MOVED EAST OF OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO
OUR NORTHWEST SLIDING EAST. MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN...DRIZZLE AND FOG
EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
PUSHES UP TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. PLAYED POPS HIGHEST IN THE
NORTHWEST TO THE LIGHTEST IN THE SOUTHEAST.  USED A NON-DIURNAL
CURVE FOR TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE MID 30S IN THE NORTHEAST TO NEAR 50 DEGREES IN
THE WEST. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THE
PROBABILITY OF MODERATE RAIN IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA
INCREASES.

WEDNESDAY MORNING STARTS WITH A COLD FRONT SITUATED ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA FROM THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS
THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE. STRONG MOISTURE FLOW INTO THE AREA ON A
50KT TO 60KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL PUSH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES TO 1.0-1.1 INCHES IN THE WEST...AND AS HIGH AS 1.4
INCHES FURTHER EAST...ALL SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
MARCH. DURING THE MORNING...RAIN WILL BE WIDESPREAD WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST LIFT/HEAVIEST RAINFALL PROGGED TO BE
WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...JUST SCRAPPING SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA...PARTICULARLY THE WEST FACING SLOPES. FURTHER EAST...WILL
LIKELY SEE A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT SLOWLY
DRIFTS EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF...DEVELOP A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING SLOWING ITS PROGRESSES SOUTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE QUITE MILD WITH READINGS FROM THE
UPPER 40S IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...

ISSUE THIS PERIOD WILL BE WITH HOW QUICK COLDER AIR ARRIVES IN
TIMING WITH PRECIP. 12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR SLOWER ARRIVAL OF
FRONT BUT EDGE COLDER AIR INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF WV BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME...LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT MOVING NE
WILL AID IN A WARM NOSE PUNCHING BACK WEST TO CHANGE ANY SNOW TO
SLEET BEFORE THE ARCTIC AIR PLUNGES SE AS THE LOW MOVES BY THURSDAY
MORNING.

QPF IS THE ISSUE AND STILL APPEARS THE CORRIDOR OF HIGHER QPF WILL
STRETCH FROM ERN KY THROUGH NORTHERN VA WITH SECONDARY MAX IN THE
PIEDMONT WITH SFC LOW INFLUENCE. WITH WINTRY PRECIP...WENT CLOSER TO
THE 12Z GFS WITH A BLEND OF ECMWF ON TEMPS. WITH THIS IN MIND
CONFIDENCE IS 50/50 THAT OUR EXTREME NRN CWA FROM GREENBRIER TO
AMHERST WILL FLIRT WITH WARNING LEVEL SNOW/SLEET BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...AND IN COLLABORATION WITH WFO STERLING AND WFO
CHARLESTON ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FROM GREENBRIER TO AMHERST.
EXPECT THE HIGHER TOTALS TO OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WRN
GREENBRIER...NE GREENBRIER INTO THE ALLEGHANYS OF BATH...TO THE BLUE
RIDGE MTNS OF AMHERST. OVERALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE IN THE 2 TO 6 INCH
RANGE...THOUGH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF
THE COLDER AIR SURGES SWD QUICKER WITH PRECIP IN PLACE.

THIS WATCH RUNS FROM MIDNIGHT WED NIGHT THROUGH 7PM THURSDAY.

FURTHER SOUTH EXPECT RAIN TO WINTRY MIX THROUGH THURSDAY. COULD SEE
A WINTER ADVISORY GOING UP FOR THE REST OF THE CWA FOR
THURSDAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS THE NC FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT INTO SRN VA.

TEMPS WED NIGHT WILL SLOWLY FALL...AND MAY STAY STEADY OUT EAST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPS WILL THEN DROP ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA
THURSDAY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKING SHAPE. 8H TEMPS FALL FROM
+6C IN THE PIEDMONT/-6C IN THE WV MTNS AT 12Z THU TO ZERO EAST TO
-12C WEST BY 00Z FRI. SO THE LOWS THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE THE HIGHS
THURSDAY FOR SOME OF OUR MTN COUNTIES...WITH TEMPS FALLING TO 20 BY
DUSK THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EST TUESDAY...

THURSDAY EVENING...THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EXITING FRONT WILL HAVE EXITED THE REGION...OR JUST BE ON THE
EASTERN FRINGES. ALSO...ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...NORTHWEST
FLOW UPSLOPE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. BY MIDNIGHT...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS AND VEERS
MORE NORTHERLY...MUCH LESS CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
AROUND ZERO TO PLUS FIVE OVER SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND PLUS FIVE
TO LOWER TEENS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA. ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...LOWS WILL BE IN THE
TEENS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT WITH THE LOW TEMPERATURES WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL FLIRT WITH THE ADVISORY THRESHOLD OF FIVE BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION...WITH
ITS CENTER SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE RESULT
WILL BE A DRY FORECAST...WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. AFTER HIGHS
ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE MORE IN THE 40S WEST TO LOWER
50S EAST.

THERE HAS BEEN CONSIDERABLE VARIATION IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE DURING
THE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIME PERIOD. WHILE EACH IS FAIRLY
CONSISTENT THAT A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN
THIRD OF CONUS...THERE HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENCIES AS TO WHETHER OR
NOT...AND WHEN...AND WHAT TRACK A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MAY GET
PICKED UP ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS TROUGH AND PROGRESS NORTHEAST
ACROSS OUR AREA. THE GFS HAS NOT BEEN FAVORABLE OF THIS OCCURRENCE.
THE ECMWF WAS OPTIMISTIC ON AN ARRIVAL A SOUTHERN SYSTEM ON MONDAY
IN YESTERDAYS SOLUTION. TODAYS SOLUTION PLACES THAT EVENT ABOUT 24
HOURS LATER ON TUESDAY. OUR FORECAST TODAY WILL REFLECT TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING TO MODERATE THROUGH MONDAY...WITH THE THINKING THAT THE
DEVELOPING TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST...AND WE WILL
CONTINUE IN WARM AIR ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE. IT WILL ALSO REFLECT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA WHERE 850 MB FLOW WILL BE MORE W-NW.
IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
IMPACTING THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EST TUESDAY...

MVFR CONDITIONS WITH POCKETS OF IFR IN PRECIPITATION...CLOUDS AND
FOG THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
ALOFT WILL BRING ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING
DRIZZLE ACROSS OUR AREA. TRIMMED BACK AND NARROWED THE WINDOW FOR
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE TAFS FOR TONIGHT. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL BE IFR TO LIFR FOR MUCH OF THE AREA IN LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT ALL OF THE REGION
WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA BY WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH ABUNDANT RAIN. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED FORECAST...

 WINTER PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME THE MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION TYPES ARE
SNOW AND SLEET.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR
WEATHER.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 300 PM EST TUESDAY...

FLOODING THREAT APPEARS TO STAY JUST WEST AND NORTH OF OUR CWA AS
MODELS HAVE 1.5" OR MORE IN 12 HRS PROJECTED HERE. PLUS ARRIVAL OF
COLDER AIR WITH BRUNT OF QPF MAY LIMIT RAINFALL BEFORE IT CHANGES
TO SLEET THEN SNOW. RIVER FORECAST CENTERS AS OF THIS MORNING WERE
FORECASTING A RISE TO JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT ALDERSON IN
GREENBRIER COUNTY...TAKING INTO ACCOUNT GUIDANCE FROM LAST NIGHT.
WITH LESS QPF THIS MAY BE BACKED OFF. GIVEN SNOW MELT AND TIMING
OF COLDER AIR TO CHANGEOVER THERE SHOULD ONLY BE RISES ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS...BUT THE THREAT OF FLOODING IS NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR VAZ020-024-035.
NC...NONE.
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR WVZ507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS/KK
HYDROLOGY...WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 032020
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
320 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL TRACK INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA AND WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL ALLOW FOR A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EST TUESDAY...

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. KFCX WSR-88D SHOWED THAT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION HAS
MOVED EAST OF OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO
OUR NORTHWEST SLIDING EAST. MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN...DRIZZLE AND FOG
EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
PUSHES UP TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. PLAYED POPS HIGHEST IN THE
NORTHWEST TO THE LIGHTEST IN THE SOUTHEAST.  USED A NON-DIURNAL
CURVE FOR TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE MID 30S IN THE NORTHEAST TO NEAR 50 DEGREES IN
THE WEST. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THE
PROBABILITY OF MODERATE RAIN IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA
INCREASES.

WEDNESDAY MORNING STARTS WITH A COLD FRONT SITUATED ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA FROM THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS
THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE. STRONG MOISTURE FLOW INTO THE AREA ON A
50KT TO 60KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL PUSH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES TO 1.0-1.1 INCHES IN THE WEST...AND AS HIGH AS 1.4
INCHES FURTHER EAST...ALL SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
MARCH. DURING THE MORNING...RAIN WILL BE WIDESPREAD WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST LIFT/HEAVIEST RAINFALL PROGGED TO BE
WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...JUST SCRAPPING SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA...PARTICULARLY THE WEST FACING SLOPES. FURTHER EAST...WILL
LIKELY SEE A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT SLOWLY
DRIFTS EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF...DEVELOP A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING SLOWING ITS PROGRESSES SOUTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE QUITE MILD WITH READINGS FROM THE
UPPER 40S IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...

ISSUE THIS PERIOD WILL BE WITH HOW QUICK COLDER AIR ARRIVES IN
TIMING WITH PRECIP. 12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR SLOWER ARRIVAL OF
FRONT BUT EDGE COLDER AIR INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF WV BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME...LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT MOVING NE
WILL AID IN A WARM NOSE PUNCHING BACK WEST TO CHANGE ANY SNOW TO
SLEET BEFORE THE ARCTIC AIR PLUNGES SE AS THE LOW MOVES BY THURSDAY
MORNING.

QPF IS THE ISSUE AND STILL APPEARS THE CORRIDOR OF HIGHER QPF WILL
STRETCH FROM ERN KY THROUGH NORTHERN VA WITH SECONDARY MAX IN THE
PIEDMONT WITH SFC LOW INFLUENCE. WITH WINTRY PRECIP...WENT CLOSER TO
THE 12Z GFS WITH A BLEND OF ECMWF ON TEMPS. WITH THIS IN MIND
CONFIDENCE IS 50/50 THAT OUR EXTREME NRN CWA FROM GREENBRIER TO
AMHERST WILL FLIRT WITH WARNING LEVEL SNOW/SLEET BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...AND IN COLLABORATION WITH WFO STERLING AND WFO
CHARLESTON ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FROM GREENBRIER TO AMHERST.
EXPECT THE HIGHER TOTALS TO OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WRN
GREENBRIER...NE GREENBRIER INTO THE ALLEGHANYS OF BATH...TO THE BLUE
RIDGE MTNS OF AMHERST. OVERALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE IN THE 2 TO 6 INCH
RANGE...THOUGH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF
THE COLDER AIR SURGES SWD QUICKER WITH PRECIP IN PLACE.

THIS WATCH RUNS FROM MIDNIGHT WED NIGHT THROUGH 7PM THURSDAY.

FURTHER SOUTH EXPECT RAIN TO WINTRY MIX THROUGH THURSDAY. COULD SEE
A WINTER ADVISORY GOING UP FOR THE REST OF THE CWA FOR
THURSDAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS THE NC FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT INTO SRN VA.

TEMPS WED NIGHT WILL SLOWLY FALL...AND MAY STAY STEADY OUT EAST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPS WILL THEN DROP ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA
THURSDAY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKING SHAPE. 8H TEMPS FALL FROM
+6C IN THE PIEDMONT/-6C IN THE WV MTNS AT 12Z THU TO ZERO EAST TO
-12C WEST BY 00Z FRI. SO THE LOWS THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE THE HIGHS
THURSDAY FOR SOME OF OUR MTN COUNTIES...WITH TEMPS FALLING TO 20 BY
DUSK THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EST TUESDAY...

THURSDAY EVENING...THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EXITING FRONT WILL HAVE EXITED THE REGION...OR JUST BE ON THE
EASTERN FRINGES. ALSO...ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...NORTHWEST
FLOW UPSLOPE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. BY MIDNIGHT...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS AND VEERS
MORE NORTHERLY...MUCH LESS CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
AROUND ZERO TO PLUS FIVE OVER SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND PLUS FIVE
TO LOWER TEENS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA. ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...LOWS WILL BE IN THE
TEENS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT WITH THE LOW TEMPERATURES WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL FLIRT WITH THE ADVISORY THRESHOLD OF FIVE BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION...WITH
ITS CENTER SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE RESULT
WILL BE A DRY FORECAST...WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. AFTER HIGHS
ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE MORE IN THE 40S WEST TO LOWER
50S EAST.

THERE HAS BEEN CONSIDERABLE VARIATION IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE DURING
THE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIME PERIOD. WHILE EACH IS FAIRLY
CONSISTENT THAT A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN
THIRD OF CONUS...THERE HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENCIES AS TO WHETHER OR
NOT...AND WHEN...AND WHAT TRACK A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MAY GET
PICKED UP ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS TROUGH AND PROGRESS NORTHEAST
ACROSS OUR AREA. THE GFS HAS NOT BEEN FAVORABLE OF THIS OCCURRENCE.
THE ECMWF WAS OPTIMISTIC ON AN ARRIVAL A SOUTHERN SYSTEM ON MONDAY
IN YESTERDAYS SOLUTION. TODAYS SOLUTION PLACES THAT EVENT ABOUT 24
HOURS LATER ON TUESDAY. OUR FORECAST TODAY WILL REFLECT TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING TO MODERATE THROUGH MONDAY...WITH THE THINKING THAT THE
DEVELOPING TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST...AND WE WILL
CONTINUE IN WARM AIR ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE. IT WILL ALSO REFLECT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA WHERE 850 MB FLOW WILL BE MORE W-NW.
IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
IMPACTING THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EST TUESDAY...

MVFR CONDITIONS WITH POCKETS OF IFR IN PRECIPITATION...CLOUDS AND
FOG THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
ALOFT WILL BRING ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING
DRIZZLE ACROSS OUR AREA. TRIMMED BACK AND NARROWED THE WINDOW FOR
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE TAFS FOR TONIGHT. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL BE IFR TO LIFR FOR MUCH OF THE AREA IN LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT ALL OF THE REGION
WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA BY WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH ABUNDANT RAIN. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED FORECAST...

 WINTER PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME THE MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION TYPES ARE
SNOW AND SLEET.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR
WEATHER.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 300 PM EST TUESDAY...

FLOODING THREAT APPEARS TO STAY JUST WEST AND NORTH OF OUR CWA AS
MODELS HAVE 1.5" OR MORE IN 12 HRS PROJECTED HERE. PLUS ARRIVAL OF
COLDER AIR WITH BRUNT OF QPF MAY LIMIT RAINFALL BEFORE IT CHANGES
TO SLEET THEN SNOW. RIVER FORECAST CENTERS AS OF THIS MORNING WERE
FORECASTING A RISE TO JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT ALDERSON IN
GREENBRIER COUNTY...TAKING INTO ACCOUNT GUIDANCE FROM LAST NIGHT.
WITH LESS QPF THIS MAY BE BACKED OFF. GIVEN SNOW MELT AND TIMING
OF COLDER AIR TO CHANGEOVER THERE SHOULD ONLY BE RISES ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS...BUT THE THREAT OF FLOODING IS NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR VAZ020-024-035.
NC...NONE.
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR WVZ507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS/KK
HYDROLOGY...WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 032020
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
320 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL TRACK INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA AND WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL ALLOW FOR A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EST TUESDAY...

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. KFCX WSR-88D SHOWED THAT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION HAS
MOVED EAST OF OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO
OUR NORTHWEST SLIDING EAST. MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN...DRIZZLE AND FOG
EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
PUSHES UP TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. PLAYED POPS HIGHEST IN THE
NORTHWEST TO THE LIGHTEST IN THE SOUTHEAST.  USED A NON-DIURNAL
CURVE FOR TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE MID 30S IN THE NORTHEAST TO NEAR 50 DEGREES IN
THE WEST. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THE
PROBABILITY OF MODERATE RAIN IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA
INCREASES.

WEDNESDAY MORNING STARTS WITH A COLD FRONT SITUATED ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA FROM THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS
THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE. STRONG MOISTURE FLOW INTO THE AREA ON A
50KT TO 60KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL PUSH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES TO 1.0-1.1 INCHES IN THE WEST...AND AS HIGH AS 1.4
INCHES FURTHER EAST...ALL SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
MARCH. DURING THE MORNING...RAIN WILL BE WIDESPREAD WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST LIFT/HEAVIEST RAINFALL PROGGED TO BE
WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...JUST SCRAPPING SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA...PARTICULARLY THE WEST FACING SLOPES. FURTHER EAST...WILL
LIKELY SEE A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT SLOWLY
DRIFTS EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF...DEVELOP A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING SLOWING ITS PROGRESSES SOUTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE QUITE MILD WITH READINGS FROM THE
UPPER 40S IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...

ISSUE THIS PERIOD WILL BE WITH HOW QUICK COLDER AIR ARRIVES IN
TIMING WITH PRECIP. 12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR SLOWER ARRIVAL OF
FRONT BUT EDGE COLDER AIR INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF WV BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME...LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT MOVING NE
WILL AID IN A WARM NOSE PUNCHING BACK WEST TO CHANGE ANY SNOW TO
SLEET BEFORE THE ARCTIC AIR PLUNGES SE AS THE LOW MOVES BY THURSDAY
MORNING.

QPF IS THE ISSUE AND STILL APPEARS THE CORRIDOR OF HIGHER QPF WILL
STRETCH FROM ERN KY THROUGH NORTHERN VA WITH SECONDARY MAX IN THE
PIEDMONT WITH SFC LOW INFLUENCE. WITH WINTRY PRECIP...WENT CLOSER TO
THE 12Z GFS WITH A BLEND OF ECMWF ON TEMPS. WITH THIS IN MIND
CONFIDENCE IS 50/50 THAT OUR EXTREME NRN CWA FROM GREENBRIER TO
AMHERST WILL FLIRT WITH WARNING LEVEL SNOW/SLEET BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...AND IN COLLABORATION WITH WFO STERLING AND WFO
CHARLESTON ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FROM GREENBRIER TO AMHERST.
EXPECT THE HIGHER TOTALS TO OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WRN
GREENBRIER...NE GREENBRIER INTO THE ALLEGHANYS OF BATH...TO THE BLUE
RIDGE MTNS OF AMHERST. OVERALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE IN THE 2 TO 6 INCH
RANGE...THOUGH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF
THE COLDER AIR SURGES SWD QUICKER WITH PRECIP IN PLACE.

THIS WATCH RUNS FROM MIDNIGHT WED NIGHT THROUGH 7PM THURSDAY.

FURTHER SOUTH EXPECT RAIN TO WINTRY MIX THROUGH THURSDAY. COULD SEE
A WINTER ADVISORY GOING UP FOR THE REST OF THE CWA FOR
THURSDAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS THE NC FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT INTO SRN VA.

TEMPS WED NIGHT WILL SLOWLY FALL...AND MAY STAY STEADY OUT EAST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPS WILL THEN DROP ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA
THURSDAY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKING SHAPE. 8H TEMPS FALL FROM
+6C IN THE PIEDMONT/-6C IN THE WV MTNS AT 12Z THU TO ZERO EAST TO
-12C WEST BY 00Z FRI. SO THE LOWS THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE THE HIGHS
THURSDAY FOR SOME OF OUR MTN COUNTIES...WITH TEMPS FALLING TO 20 BY
DUSK THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EST TUESDAY...

THURSDAY EVENING...THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EXITING FRONT WILL HAVE EXITED THE REGION...OR JUST BE ON THE
EASTERN FRINGES. ALSO...ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...NORTHWEST
FLOW UPSLOPE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. BY MIDNIGHT...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS AND VEERS
MORE NORTHERLY...MUCH LESS CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
AROUND ZERO TO PLUS FIVE OVER SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND PLUS FIVE
TO LOWER TEENS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA. ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...LOWS WILL BE IN THE
TEENS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT WITH THE LOW TEMPERATURES WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL FLIRT WITH THE ADVISORY THRESHOLD OF FIVE BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION...WITH
ITS CENTER SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE RESULT
WILL BE A DRY FORECAST...WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. AFTER HIGHS
ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE MORE IN THE 40S WEST TO LOWER
50S EAST.

THERE HAS BEEN CONSIDERABLE VARIATION IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE DURING
THE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIME PERIOD. WHILE EACH IS FAIRLY
CONSISTENT THAT A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN
THIRD OF CONUS...THERE HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENCIES AS TO WHETHER OR
NOT...AND WHEN...AND WHAT TRACK A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MAY GET
PICKED UP ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS TROUGH AND PROGRESS NORTHEAST
ACROSS OUR AREA. THE GFS HAS NOT BEEN FAVORABLE OF THIS OCCURRENCE.
THE ECMWF WAS OPTIMISTIC ON AN ARRIVAL A SOUTHERN SYSTEM ON MONDAY
IN YESTERDAYS SOLUTION. TODAYS SOLUTION PLACES THAT EVENT ABOUT 24
HOURS LATER ON TUESDAY. OUR FORECAST TODAY WILL REFLECT TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING TO MODERATE THROUGH MONDAY...WITH THE THINKING THAT THE
DEVELOPING TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST...AND WE WILL
CONTINUE IN WARM AIR ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE. IT WILL ALSO REFLECT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA WHERE 850 MB FLOW WILL BE MORE W-NW.
IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
IMPACTING THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EST TUESDAY...

MVFR CONDITIONS WITH POCKETS OF IFR IN PRECIPITATION...CLOUDS AND
FOG THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
ALOFT WILL BRING ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING
DRIZZLE ACROSS OUR AREA. TRIMMED BACK AND NARROWED THE WINDOW FOR
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE TAFS FOR TONIGHT. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL BE IFR TO LIFR FOR MUCH OF THE AREA IN LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT ALL OF THE REGION
WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA BY WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH ABUNDANT RAIN. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED FORECAST...

 WINTER PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME THE MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION TYPES ARE
SNOW AND SLEET.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR
WEATHER.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 300 PM EST TUESDAY...

FLOODING THREAT APPEARS TO STAY JUST WEST AND NORTH OF OUR CWA AS
MODELS HAVE 1.5" OR MORE IN 12 HRS PROJECTED HERE. PLUS ARRIVAL OF
COLDER AIR WITH BRUNT OF QPF MAY LIMIT RAINFALL BEFORE IT CHANGES
TO SLEET THEN SNOW. RIVER FORECAST CENTERS AS OF THIS MORNING WERE
FORECASTING A RISE TO JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT ALDERSON IN
GREENBRIER COUNTY...TAKING INTO ACCOUNT GUIDANCE FROM LAST NIGHT.
WITH LESS QPF THIS MAY BE BACKED OFF. GIVEN SNOW MELT AND TIMING
OF COLDER AIR TO CHANGEOVER THERE SHOULD ONLY BE RISES ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS...BUT THE THREAT OF FLOODING IS NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR VAZ020-024-035.
NC...NONE.
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR WVZ507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS/KK
HYDROLOGY...WP



000
FXUS61 KRNK 031839
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
139 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...THEN A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL TRACK INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA
AND WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. COLDER
AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 138 PM EST TUESDAY...

WITH TEMPERATURES RISING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE
THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD ICING PROBLEMS HAS ENDED...THUS THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED. SOME LIGHT RAIN AND PATCHES OF
DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED FOR THE THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED POCKETS OF
ICE MAY BE POSSIBLE ON THE COLDEST SURFACES. DRIVER SHOULD WATCH
FOR SLICK ICY SPOTS ON ROADWAYS.

AS OF 1000 AM EST TUESDAY...

CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAINLY WEST OF I77 WHERE
TEMPERATURES WERE ABOVE FREEZING MARK AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN AS
SUCH...AND RADAR COVERAGE IS LIGHT. STILL CONCERN OVER DIABATIC
COOLING OF TEMPERATURES WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION...THUS WILL HOLD
WITH REST OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. MODIFIED POPS
WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDS. SHAPED MORNING TEMPERATURES WITH SFC OBS
AND LATEST MODEL TRENDS. MORE CHANGES LATER THIS MORNING IN THE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN .


AS OF 415 AM EST TUESDAY...

LOWER CLOUDS WERE JUST FILLING IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND THE TIMING SHOWN ON THE LAST FEW RUNS OF
THE HRRR AND THE LATEST WRF GUIDANCE. HAVE THEREFORE MADE ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE VALID TIME OF THE ADVISORIES. APPEARS A MORE ORGANIZED AREAS
OF PRECIPITATION WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA BETWEEN
8AM AND NOON. STILL EXPECTING A BETTER PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
ON THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE. OTHERWISE...NO WELL DEFINED
FEATURES THAT WILL DEFINE WHERE AND WHEN PRECIPITATION WILL FALL.

WHEREVER THE PRECIPITATION IS...IT WILL BE LIGHT. BUFKIT NOT
SHOWING GOOD DENDRITIC GROWTH AND BY 15Z/10AM...WARM NOSE WILL BE
WELL STRONG ENOUGH TO RESULT IN LIQUID AS THE HYDROMETEORS FALL
THROUGH THAT LAYER. SO SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE DECIDING
FACTOR IN PRECIPITATION TYPE. NEW RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE
ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS WERE BELOW FREEZING. ONLY A SLOW RISE IN
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY. GUIDANCE KEPT THE NORTHEAST
COUNTIES...MAINLY FROM LYNCHBURG INTO AMHERST AND ROCKBRIDGE
COUNTY BELOW FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. HAVE DELAYED THE START
OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND EXTENDED THE ADVISORY THROUGH
LATER IN THE DAY WHERE THE TEMPERATURE REMAINS BELOW FREEZING.

TONIGHT...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PUSHES UP TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS. LOWS WILL OCCUR IN THE EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND THE PROBABILITY OF MODERATE RAIN IN THE
NORTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA INCREASES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EST TUESDAY...

EXPECT TO START WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT SITUATED FROM THE
ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE. STRONG MOISTURE
FLOW INTO THE AREA ON A 50KT TO 60KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET
WILL PUSH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO 1.0-1.1 INCHES IN THE
WEST...AND AS HIGH AS 1.4 INCHES FURTHER EAST...ALL SIGNIFICANTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH.

DURING THE MORNING...RAIN WILL BE WIDESPREAD WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST LIFT/HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
BE WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...JUST SKIRTING OUR SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA COUNTIES...PARTICULARLY THE WEST FACING SLOPES. FURTHER
EAST...WILL LIKELY SEE A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SOME DRYING TAKING
PLACE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AS WINDS SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY AND
DOWNSLOPE.

DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE COLD FRONT WILL
SLOW/STALL ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE AND NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT AS A
STRONG WAVE DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN GEORGIA AND PUSHES NORTHEAST
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE WAVE WILL PASS JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY...WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE
DEVELOPING FROM THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE...SUPPORTING AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN.

AS THE WAVE PASSES OUR AREA DURING LATE THURSDAY MORNING...IT WILL
ENHANCE THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...DRAWING COLD
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FURTHER ACROSS OUR AREA.
THE SURGE OF COLDER AIR HUGGING THE SURFACE WILL CAUSE RAIN TO
CHANGE TO SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...BEFORE FINALLY CHANGING TO SNOW BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
BECAUSE WE ARE EXPECTING MORE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...WENT WITH LOWER SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR THURSDAY.
RIGHT NOW...LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTER STORM SNOW AND
SLEET AMOUNTS FOR WESTERN GREENBRIER...AND PERHAPS BATH AND
ROCKBRIDGE COUNTIES IN SPOTS...BUT DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
GO WITH A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS POINT. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT
HAVE ANOTHER LOOK AT THE COMING 03/12Z MODEL RUNS.

PRECIPITATION WILL WIND DOWN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...SETTLING ACROSS THE MID AND UPPER
OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
MEAN ONE MORE SHOT OF SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES TO START THE DAY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH TEENS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND...WHERE IT WILL THEN WEDGE
SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT...HUGGING THE EASTERN FACE OF THE
APPALACHIANS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EST MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST...AND MAKE ITS WAY TO THE COAST BY SATURDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A TREND TOWARD MILDER CONDITIONS AS THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA BECOMES GRADUALLY MORE SW-W...WHILE A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND RISING 850 TEMPS TAKE PLACE.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY A GENEROUS AMOUNT OF VARIATIONS IN THE MODELS
TAKE PLACE. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM EVENTUALLY COME INTO
AGREEMENT OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF CONUS BY
MONDAY OR TUESDAY OR NEXT WEEK...HOW THE SOLUTIONS COME TO BE THAT
WAY HAVE NOTABLE DIFFERENCES. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN
ESTABLISHING THE TROUGH IN THE EAST BY SUNDAY...AND ANY SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEMS EASILY BYPASS OUR REGION EXITING THE U.S. NEAR THE
GA/FL BORDER. THE ECWMF IS NOT A QUICK TO ESTABLISH AN EAST COAST
TROUGH...AND A SUCH...SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS HAVE A BETTER
OPPORTUNITY TO PROGRESS NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR REGION ON THE EAST
SIDE OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

OUR FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BE A CONSENSUS OF THESE
TWO...WITH IT RESEMBLING A WATERED DOWN VERSION OF THE ECWMF IN
TERMS OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
ALSO STAYING ON MORE OF THE MILD SIDE THAN COLD IN REGARDS TO
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EST TUESDAY...

MVFR CONDITIONS WITH POCKETS OF IFR IN PRECIPITATION...CLOUDS AND
FOG THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
ALOFT WILL BRING ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING
DRIZZLE ACROSS OUR AREA. TRIMMED BACK AND NARROWED THE WINDOW FOR
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE TAFS FOR TONIGHT. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL BE IFR TO LIFR FOR MUCH OF THE AREA IN LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT ALL OF THE REGION
WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA BY WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH ABUNDANT RAIN. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED FORECAST...

 WINTER PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME THE MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION TYPES ARE
SNOW AND SLEET.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR
WEATHER.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 300 PM EST MONDAY

LIKELY TO SEE SOME SUBSTANTIAL RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS IN
RESPONSE TO UPCOMING RAIN EVENT AND SNOWMELT IN THE
MOUNTAINS...QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT HOW SUBSTANTIAL. SIGNIFICANT SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE NOW CONFINED TO PARTS OF THE UPPER JAMES AND
GREENBRIER RIVER BASINS WHERE THE LATEST AVAILABLE ESTIMATES FROM
THE NATIONAL OPERATIONAL REMOTE SENSING CENTER SHOW ROUGHLY 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT WITH ISOLATED 4 INCHES IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE GREENBRIER. IN THE OTHER MAJOR RIVER
BASINS...NEW...ROANOKE/DAN AND TENNESSEE... MELTING OVER THE
WEEKEND AND TODAY HAS REDUCED THE SNOW TO LESS THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW
WATER AND IN MOST PLACES ZERO.

THE OTHER ELEMENT OF COURSE IS THE QPF. 12Z MODELS (INCLUDING
LATEST EC) HAVE NUDGED THE HEAVIEST QPF A LITTLE MORE TO THE
WEST...REDUCING AMOUNTS IN THE JAMES AND GREENBRIER SOME. IT STILL
APPEARS AS IF 1 TO 2 INCHES COULD FALL ACROSS THE WESTERN BASINS
BY 12Z THURSDAY AND COMBINED WITH SNOWMELT THIS COULD PRODUCE AT
LEAST MINOR RIVER FLOODING ALONG THE GREENBRIER AND POSSIBLY THE
UPPER JAMES. GUIDANCE RECEIVED FROM OHRFC THIS MORNING SUGGESTED
MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT ALDERSON WV ON THE GREENBRIER LIKELY BY EARLY
THURSDAY WITH THE COMBINED SNOWMELT AND QPF. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTIES WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS/KK
HYDROLOGY...PC



000
FXUS61 KRNK 031839
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
139 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...THEN A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL TRACK INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA
AND WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. COLDER
AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 138 PM EST TUESDAY...

WITH TEMPERATURES RISING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE
THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD ICING PROBLEMS HAS ENDED...THUS THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED. SOME LIGHT RAIN AND PATCHES OF
DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED FOR THE THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED POCKETS OF
ICE MAY BE POSSIBLE ON THE COLDEST SURFACES. DRIVER SHOULD WATCH
FOR SLICK ICY SPOTS ON ROADWAYS.

AS OF 1000 AM EST TUESDAY...

CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAINLY WEST OF I77 WHERE
TEMPERATURES WERE ABOVE FREEZING MARK AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN AS
SUCH...AND RADAR COVERAGE IS LIGHT. STILL CONCERN OVER DIABATIC
COOLING OF TEMPERATURES WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION...THUS WILL HOLD
WITH REST OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. MODIFIED POPS
WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDS. SHAPED MORNING TEMPERATURES WITH SFC OBS
AND LATEST MODEL TRENDS. MORE CHANGES LATER THIS MORNING IN THE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN .


AS OF 415 AM EST TUESDAY...

LOWER CLOUDS WERE JUST FILLING IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND THE TIMING SHOWN ON THE LAST FEW RUNS OF
THE HRRR AND THE LATEST WRF GUIDANCE. HAVE THEREFORE MADE ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE VALID TIME OF THE ADVISORIES. APPEARS A MORE ORGANIZED AREAS
OF PRECIPITATION WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA BETWEEN
8AM AND NOON. STILL EXPECTING A BETTER PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
ON THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE. OTHERWISE...NO WELL DEFINED
FEATURES THAT WILL DEFINE WHERE AND WHEN PRECIPITATION WILL FALL.

WHEREVER THE PRECIPITATION IS...IT WILL BE LIGHT. BUFKIT NOT
SHOWING GOOD DENDRITIC GROWTH AND BY 15Z/10AM...WARM NOSE WILL BE
WELL STRONG ENOUGH TO RESULT IN LIQUID AS THE HYDROMETEORS FALL
THROUGH THAT LAYER. SO SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE DECIDING
FACTOR IN PRECIPITATION TYPE. NEW RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE
ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS WERE BELOW FREEZING. ONLY A SLOW RISE IN
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY. GUIDANCE KEPT THE NORTHEAST
COUNTIES...MAINLY FROM LYNCHBURG INTO AMHERST AND ROCKBRIDGE
COUNTY BELOW FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. HAVE DELAYED THE START
OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND EXTENDED THE ADVISORY THROUGH
LATER IN THE DAY WHERE THE TEMPERATURE REMAINS BELOW FREEZING.

TONIGHT...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PUSHES UP TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS. LOWS WILL OCCUR IN THE EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND THE PROBABILITY OF MODERATE RAIN IN THE
NORTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA INCREASES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EST TUESDAY...

EXPECT TO START WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT SITUATED FROM THE
ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE. STRONG MOISTURE
FLOW INTO THE AREA ON A 50KT TO 60KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET
WILL PUSH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO 1.0-1.1 INCHES IN THE
WEST...AND AS HIGH AS 1.4 INCHES FURTHER EAST...ALL SIGNIFICANTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH.

DURING THE MORNING...RAIN WILL BE WIDESPREAD WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST LIFT/HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
BE WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...JUST SKIRTING OUR SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA COUNTIES...PARTICULARLY THE WEST FACING SLOPES. FURTHER
EAST...WILL LIKELY SEE A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SOME DRYING TAKING
PLACE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AS WINDS SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY AND
DOWNSLOPE.

DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE COLD FRONT WILL
SLOW/STALL ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE AND NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT AS A
STRONG WAVE DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN GEORGIA AND PUSHES NORTHEAST
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE WAVE WILL PASS JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY...WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE
DEVELOPING FROM THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE...SUPPORTING AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN.

AS THE WAVE PASSES OUR AREA DURING LATE THURSDAY MORNING...IT WILL
ENHANCE THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...DRAWING COLD
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FURTHER ACROSS OUR AREA.
THE SURGE OF COLDER AIR HUGGING THE SURFACE WILL CAUSE RAIN TO
CHANGE TO SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...BEFORE FINALLY CHANGING TO SNOW BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
BECAUSE WE ARE EXPECTING MORE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...WENT WITH LOWER SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR THURSDAY.
RIGHT NOW...LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTER STORM SNOW AND
SLEET AMOUNTS FOR WESTERN GREENBRIER...AND PERHAPS BATH AND
ROCKBRIDGE COUNTIES IN SPOTS...BUT DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
GO WITH A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS POINT. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT
HAVE ANOTHER LOOK AT THE COMING 03/12Z MODEL RUNS.

PRECIPITATION WILL WIND DOWN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...SETTLING ACROSS THE MID AND UPPER
OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
MEAN ONE MORE SHOT OF SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES TO START THE DAY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH TEENS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND...WHERE IT WILL THEN WEDGE
SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT...HUGGING THE EASTERN FACE OF THE
APPALACHIANS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EST MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST...AND MAKE ITS WAY TO THE COAST BY SATURDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A TREND TOWARD MILDER CONDITIONS AS THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA BECOMES GRADUALLY MORE SW-W...WHILE A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND RISING 850 TEMPS TAKE PLACE.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY A GENEROUS AMOUNT OF VARIATIONS IN THE MODELS
TAKE PLACE. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM EVENTUALLY COME INTO
AGREEMENT OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF CONUS BY
MONDAY OR TUESDAY OR NEXT WEEK...HOW THE SOLUTIONS COME TO BE THAT
WAY HAVE NOTABLE DIFFERENCES. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN
ESTABLISHING THE TROUGH IN THE EAST BY SUNDAY...AND ANY SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEMS EASILY BYPASS OUR REGION EXITING THE U.S. NEAR THE
GA/FL BORDER. THE ECWMF IS NOT A QUICK TO ESTABLISH AN EAST COAST
TROUGH...AND A SUCH...SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS HAVE A BETTER
OPPORTUNITY TO PROGRESS NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR REGION ON THE EAST
SIDE OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

OUR FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BE A CONSENSUS OF THESE
TWO...WITH IT RESEMBLING A WATERED DOWN VERSION OF THE ECWMF IN
TERMS OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
ALSO STAYING ON MORE OF THE MILD SIDE THAN COLD IN REGARDS TO
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EST TUESDAY...

MVFR CONDITIONS WITH POCKETS OF IFR IN PRECIPITATION...CLOUDS AND
FOG THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
ALOFT WILL BRING ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING
DRIZZLE ACROSS OUR AREA. TRIMMED BACK AND NARROWED THE WINDOW FOR
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE TAFS FOR TONIGHT. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL BE IFR TO LIFR FOR MUCH OF THE AREA IN LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT ALL OF THE REGION
WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA BY WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH ABUNDANT RAIN. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED FORECAST...

 WINTER PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME THE MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION TYPES ARE
SNOW AND SLEET.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR
WEATHER.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 300 PM EST MONDAY

LIKELY TO SEE SOME SUBSTANTIAL RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS IN
RESPONSE TO UPCOMING RAIN EVENT AND SNOWMELT IN THE
MOUNTAINS...QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT HOW SUBSTANTIAL. SIGNIFICANT SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE NOW CONFINED TO PARTS OF THE UPPER JAMES AND
GREENBRIER RIVER BASINS WHERE THE LATEST AVAILABLE ESTIMATES FROM
THE NATIONAL OPERATIONAL REMOTE SENSING CENTER SHOW ROUGHLY 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT WITH ISOLATED 4 INCHES IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE GREENBRIER. IN THE OTHER MAJOR RIVER
BASINS...NEW...ROANOKE/DAN AND TENNESSEE... MELTING OVER THE
WEEKEND AND TODAY HAS REDUCED THE SNOW TO LESS THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW
WATER AND IN MOST PLACES ZERO.

THE OTHER ELEMENT OF COURSE IS THE QPF. 12Z MODELS (INCLUDING
LATEST EC) HAVE NUDGED THE HEAVIEST QPF A LITTLE MORE TO THE
WEST...REDUCING AMOUNTS IN THE JAMES AND GREENBRIER SOME. IT STILL
APPEARS AS IF 1 TO 2 INCHES COULD FALL ACROSS THE WESTERN BASINS
BY 12Z THURSDAY AND COMBINED WITH SNOWMELT THIS COULD PRODUCE AT
LEAST MINOR RIVER FLOODING ALONG THE GREENBRIER AND POSSIBLY THE
UPPER JAMES. GUIDANCE RECEIVED FROM OHRFC THIS MORNING SUGGESTED
MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT ALDERSON WV ON THE GREENBRIER LIKELY BY EARLY
THURSDAY WITH THE COMBINED SNOWMELT AND QPF. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTIES WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS/KK
HYDROLOGY...PC




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031821
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
121 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATE THIS MORNG...HI PRES WAS CNTRD RIGHT ALONG THE CST. FLOW
ALOFT IS GENERALLY FM THE W...WELL OUT AHEAD OF BROAD TROF OVER
THE WRN CONUS. TEMPS WERE SLOWLY CLIMBING THRU THE 30S TO NEAR 40
DEGREES OVR THE AKQ CWA...WITH DWPTS RANGING FM THE MID TEENS TO
THE UPR 20S. RDR SHOWED ONLY VRY LGT MIXED PCPN OR RAIN OVR THE
MTNS OF WEST VA AND SW VA. CNTR OF HI PRES WILL PUSH OFFSHR THIS
AFTN...BUT LOW LEVEL CAD REMAINS OVER THE FA. A CLOUDY SKY WILL
LIMIT TEMP RISES THIS AFTN...WITH HIGHS ONLY RANGING FM THE MID
30S EXTRM NW TO THE MID 40S OVR NE NC. BETTER COVERAGE OF PCPN IS
EXPECTED MID/LATE AFTN...WITH BEST PCPN CHCS (50-60%) FOR MAINLY
LGT RAIN ACRS NRN AND WRN AREAS. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZRA OVR FAR NW AREAS BETWEEN 16-20Z
AS TEMPS STRUGGLE TO REACH/SURPASS 32F THRU EARLY THIS AFTN.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ATTM GIVEN MARGINAL TEMPS AND A WARM DAY
YESTERDAY. OTHERWISE...P-TYPE TO BE ALL RAIN OVR THE REGION THIS
AFTN/EVENG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM FRONT TO LIFT NE THROUGH THE FA TONIGHT. BEST MOISTURE AND
UVM ACRS CNTRL/NRN PORTIONS OF FA...THUS THE HIGHEST POPS...W/
WITH CHC POPS LIMITED TO SRN VA/NE NC. BULK OF THE RA LIFTS TO NRN
PORTION BY LT AT NGT. LO TEMPS LIKELY ARND 00Z/04 WITH RISING
TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPS BY 12Z/04 WED RISE INTO THE MID/UPR
40S TO MID 50S SE.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRONG SSW FLOW.
THERE RMN TIMING ISSUES W/ THE APPROACHING CDFNT FM THE NNW...HOWEVER
A GFS/ECMWF BLEND LOOKS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS
(40-70%) BY AFTN ACRS NRN TIER OF FA...W/ SLGT CHC TO CHC (20-40%)
TO THE S. FOR NOW...LEAVING OUT ANY MENTION OF T ACRS SRN VA/NE
NC...SINCE IT APRS MOST OF MOISTURE CONFINED TO W/ AND BEHIND THE
FNT. HI TEMPS FM THE U50S/L60S N TO L70S IN FAR SE VA/NE NC.

JUST ONE YEAR AGO...MARCH 2ND-3RD...WENT FM 60S TO L70S (THE 2ND)
TO A FEW INCHES OF SN (ON THE 3RD). THIS MAY OCCUR AGN THIS WK
(WED-THU).

FCST CHALLENGES CONT WED NGT THROUGH THU AS CDFNT SETTLES SSE
THROUGH THE FA...AND ANOTHER AREA OF ARCTIC SFC HI PRES BUILDS TWD
THE MS/OH VLYS. WILL LEAN TWD THE FASTER ARRIVAL OF COLDER SFC
AIR FM THE NNW (GFS/ECMWF) BY LT WED NGT AND CONTG ON THU. THE
MDLS EACH HINT AT WK SFC LO PRES TRACKING THROUGH NC AS S/W ALOFT
(IN FAST SWLY FLO) IS SHEARED AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE RGN. ALL
THIS LEADS TO A TRANSITION (WRT P-TYPE) LT WED/THU. RA...BECOMES
MIXED W/ IP-CHANGING TO SN/IP THEN ENDING AS SN FM NNW TO SE ACRS
THE FA (LASTLY ACRS NE NC BY MID OR LT AFTN THU). TIMING THOSE
TRANSITIONS AT THIS POINT VERY DIFFICULT...THOUGH CURRENTLY EXPECT
A LEAST LGT SN ACCUMS FOR AREAS N OF THE NC/VA BORDER BEFORE THE
DAY ENDS THU (T-2 INCHES S...1-4 INCHES N (HIGHEST PTNTTLY FM
RIC-SBY)). ALONG W/ THE TRANSITION TO WINTRY PCPN...GUSTY NNE WNDS
WILL BE PUSHING COLDER AIR INTO THE RGN. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM ARND
30F N TO THE LOW/MID 40S FAR S. TEMPS THU STEADY OR FALLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED IN WAKE OF THURS COLD FRONT...BUT
MODERATING TEMPS THRU THE WEEKEND WILL BRING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE THURS NIGHT WITH THE NRN PORTION OF THE
FRONT PUSHING WELL OFFSHORE. SRN PORTION PUSHES SWD OVER THE GULF
STATES/NRN GULF...STALLING IN WLY FLOW ALOFT. ENDED CHANCE POPS NEAR
THE COAST AT MIDNIGHT...WITH DRYING/CLEARING CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.
1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FRI...RESULTING
IN ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. H85
TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND -12C (-2 STD DEV)...WITH THICKNESSES
YIELDING TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI
NIGHT WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING MODERATE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.
TEMPS FORECAST IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS FRI NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. THEREAFTER...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE THANKS
TO DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW OVER THE WRN CONUS. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
AGAIN BE CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC FLOW (TROUGHING) OVER THE ERN
CONUS AND RIDGING (RETURN TO A +PNA) OVER THE WRN CONUS. MODELS
STRUGGLING WITH A NUMBER OF CANADIAN IMPULSES SET TO IMPACT THE NE
STATES...BUT ALSO SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE BAJA THIS WEEKEND.
ECMWF RATHER ROBUST WITH THIS ENERGY...TRANSLATING ACROSS NRN MEXICO
AND THE SRN PLAINS SAT NIGHT-SUN...POSSIBLY PHASING WITH NRN STREAM
ENERGY OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS SOLUTION WOULD LIFT THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF NWD LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
RAIN TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS SHEARS THE
ENERGY...KEEPING IT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...KEEPING THE LOCAL
AREA DRY. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD A WPC/ENSEMBLE APPROACH WHICH
KEEPS THE SRN STREAM WAVE FLAT AND THE LOCAL AREA DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND..WITH MODERATING TEMPS. HIGHS SAT FORECAST IN THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-MID 40S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS SUN IN THE
MID 50S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 40S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN OVERCAST DECK AROUND 3500-5000 FT AGL PERSISTS THIS AFTN AS
LIGHT NE WINDS START TO BECOME MORE ELY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF -SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AFTER 03/2100Z ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WITH MORE
STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS THE NRN NECK AND MD/VA EASTERN SHORE. IFR
CIGS OF 500-1000 FT AGL ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS PRECIP BEGINS
AND THEN PERSISTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE SHOULD BE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WED
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER SE VA/NE NC WHERE THE CIGS MAY BREAK UP
NICELY. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE
REGION WED AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
THE CHANCE OF RAIN INCREASES LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN
OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING. MODELS ARE
TRENDING WARMER SLIGHTLY LONGER WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A
TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX WITH SLEET FROM NW TO SE AS THU
PROGRESSES AND EVENTUALLY TO ALL SNOW BY LATE THU AFTN/EARLY
EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...A GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
1030MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE TODAY ALLOWING A
10-15KT NNE WIND TO BECOME SE AOB 10KT BY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH SHIFTS
FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.
DESPITE A STRONG LLJ IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO OBTAIN SCA CONDITIONS
GIVEN WAA OVER COLD WATER. GIVEN THIS...WIND/SEAS HAVE BEEN CAPPED
BELOW SCA CRITERIA. OVERALL...EXPECT A SSW WIND ~15KT FOR THE BAY
AND A 15-20KT FOR THE OCEAN ALONG WITH 3-4FT SEAS/2-3FT WAVES. A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NNW WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND SLOWLY
DROPS TO A POSITION NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. THE FRONT THEN BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. CAA COMMENCES THURSDAY AS
THE LOW PULLS OFFSHORE AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS 1040MB
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH A NORTHERLY WIND OF 20-25KT...AND 4-7FT
SEAS (HIGHEST S) AND 3-4FT WAVES IN THE BAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SLIDES OFFSHORE SATURDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ/BMD








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031821
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
121 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATE THIS MORNG...HI PRES WAS CNTRD RIGHT ALONG THE CST. FLOW
ALOFT IS GENERALLY FM THE W...WELL OUT AHEAD OF BROAD TROF OVER
THE WRN CONUS. TEMPS WERE SLOWLY CLIMBING THRU THE 30S TO NEAR 40
DEGREES OVR THE AKQ CWA...WITH DWPTS RANGING FM THE MID TEENS TO
THE UPR 20S. RDR SHOWED ONLY VRY LGT MIXED PCPN OR RAIN OVR THE
MTNS OF WEST VA AND SW VA. CNTR OF HI PRES WILL PUSH OFFSHR THIS
AFTN...BUT LOW LEVEL CAD REMAINS OVER THE FA. A CLOUDY SKY WILL
LIMIT TEMP RISES THIS AFTN...WITH HIGHS ONLY RANGING FM THE MID
30S EXTRM NW TO THE MID 40S OVR NE NC. BETTER COVERAGE OF PCPN IS
EXPECTED MID/LATE AFTN...WITH BEST PCPN CHCS (50-60%) FOR MAINLY
LGT RAIN ACRS NRN AND WRN AREAS. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZRA OVR FAR NW AREAS BETWEEN 16-20Z
AS TEMPS STRUGGLE TO REACH/SURPASS 32F THRU EARLY THIS AFTN.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ATTM GIVEN MARGINAL TEMPS AND A WARM DAY
YESTERDAY. OTHERWISE...P-TYPE TO BE ALL RAIN OVR THE REGION THIS
AFTN/EVENG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM FRONT TO LIFT NE THROUGH THE FA TONIGHT. BEST MOISTURE AND
UVM ACRS CNTRL/NRN PORTIONS OF FA...THUS THE HIGHEST POPS...W/
WITH CHC POPS LIMITED TO SRN VA/NE NC. BULK OF THE RA LIFTS TO NRN
PORTION BY LT AT NGT. LO TEMPS LIKELY ARND 00Z/04 WITH RISING
TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPS BY 12Z/04 WED RISE INTO THE MID/UPR
40S TO MID 50S SE.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRONG SSW FLOW.
THERE RMN TIMING ISSUES W/ THE APPROACHING CDFNT FM THE NNW...HOWEVER
A GFS/ECMWF BLEND LOOKS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS
(40-70%) BY AFTN ACRS NRN TIER OF FA...W/ SLGT CHC TO CHC (20-40%)
TO THE S. FOR NOW...LEAVING OUT ANY MENTION OF T ACRS SRN VA/NE
NC...SINCE IT APRS MOST OF MOISTURE CONFINED TO W/ AND BEHIND THE
FNT. HI TEMPS FM THE U50S/L60S N TO L70S IN FAR SE VA/NE NC.

JUST ONE YEAR AGO...MARCH 2ND-3RD...WENT FM 60S TO L70S (THE 2ND)
TO A FEW INCHES OF SN (ON THE 3RD). THIS MAY OCCUR AGN THIS WK
(WED-THU).

FCST CHALLENGES CONT WED NGT THROUGH THU AS CDFNT SETTLES SSE
THROUGH THE FA...AND ANOTHER AREA OF ARCTIC SFC HI PRES BUILDS TWD
THE MS/OH VLYS. WILL LEAN TWD THE FASTER ARRIVAL OF COLDER SFC
AIR FM THE NNW (GFS/ECMWF) BY LT WED NGT AND CONTG ON THU. THE
MDLS EACH HINT AT WK SFC LO PRES TRACKING THROUGH NC AS S/W ALOFT
(IN FAST SWLY FLO) IS SHEARED AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE RGN. ALL
THIS LEADS TO A TRANSITION (WRT P-TYPE) LT WED/THU. RA...BECOMES
MIXED W/ IP-CHANGING TO SN/IP THEN ENDING AS SN FM NNW TO SE ACRS
THE FA (LASTLY ACRS NE NC BY MID OR LT AFTN THU). TIMING THOSE
TRANSITIONS AT THIS POINT VERY DIFFICULT...THOUGH CURRENTLY EXPECT
A LEAST LGT SN ACCUMS FOR AREAS N OF THE NC/VA BORDER BEFORE THE
DAY ENDS THU (T-2 INCHES S...1-4 INCHES N (HIGHEST PTNTTLY FM
RIC-SBY)). ALONG W/ THE TRANSITION TO WINTRY PCPN...GUSTY NNE WNDS
WILL BE PUSHING COLDER AIR INTO THE RGN. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM ARND
30F N TO THE LOW/MID 40S FAR S. TEMPS THU STEADY OR FALLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED IN WAKE OF THURS COLD FRONT...BUT
MODERATING TEMPS THRU THE WEEKEND WILL BRING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE THURS NIGHT WITH THE NRN PORTION OF THE
FRONT PUSHING WELL OFFSHORE. SRN PORTION PUSHES SWD OVER THE GULF
STATES/NRN GULF...STALLING IN WLY FLOW ALOFT. ENDED CHANCE POPS NEAR
THE COAST AT MIDNIGHT...WITH DRYING/CLEARING CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.
1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FRI...RESULTING
IN ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. H85
TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND -12C (-2 STD DEV)...WITH THICKNESSES
YIELDING TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI
NIGHT WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING MODERATE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.
TEMPS FORECAST IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS FRI NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. THEREAFTER...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE THANKS
TO DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW OVER THE WRN CONUS. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
AGAIN BE CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC FLOW (TROUGHING) OVER THE ERN
CONUS AND RIDGING (RETURN TO A +PNA) OVER THE WRN CONUS. MODELS
STRUGGLING WITH A NUMBER OF CANADIAN IMPULSES SET TO IMPACT THE NE
STATES...BUT ALSO SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE BAJA THIS WEEKEND.
ECMWF RATHER ROBUST WITH THIS ENERGY...TRANSLATING ACROSS NRN MEXICO
AND THE SRN PLAINS SAT NIGHT-SUN...POSSIBLY PHASING WITH NRN STREAM
ENERGY OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS SOLUTION WOULD LIFT THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF NWD LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
RAIN TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS SHEARS THE
ENERGY...KEEPING IT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...KEEPING THE LOCAL
AREA DRY. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD A WPC/ENSEMBLE APPROACH WHICH
KEEPS THE SRN STREAM WAVE FLAT AND THE LOCAL AREA DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND..WITH MODERATING TEMPS. HIGHS SAT FORECAST IN THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-MID 40S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS SUN IN THE
MID 50S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 40S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN OVERCAST DECK AROUND 3500-5000 FT AGL PERSISTS THIS AFTN AS
LIGHT NE WINDS START TO BECOME MORE ELY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF -SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AFTER 03/2100Z ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WITH MORE
STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS THE NRN NECK AND MD/VA EASTERN SHORE. IFR
CIGS OF 500-1000 FT AGL ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS PRECIP BEGINS
AND THEN PERSISTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE SHOULD BE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WED
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER SE VA/NE NC WHERE THE CIGS MAY BREAK UP
NICELY. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE
REGION WED AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
THE CHANCE OF RAIN INCREASES LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN
OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING. MODELS ARE
TRENDING WARMER SLIGHTLY LONGER WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A
TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX WITH SLEET FROM NW TO SE AS THU
PROGRESSES AND EVENTUALLY TO ALL SNOW BY LATE THU AFTN/EARLY
EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...A GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
1030MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE TODAY ALLOWING A
10-15KT NNE WIND TO BECOME SE AOB 10KT BY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH SHIFTS
FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.
DESPITE A STRONG LLJ IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO OBTAIN SCA CONDITIONS
GIVEN WAA OVER COLD WATER. GIVEN THIS...WIND/SEAS HAVE BEEN CAPPED
BELOW SCA CRITERIA. OVERALL...EXPECT A SSW WIND ~15KT FOR THE BAY
AND A 15-20KT FOR THE OCEAN ALONG WITH 3-4FT SEAS/2-3FT WAVES. A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NNW WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND SLOWLY
DROPS TO A POSITION NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. THE FRONT THEN BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. CAA COMMENCES THURSDAY AS
THE LOW PULLS OFFSHORE AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS 1040MB
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH A NORTHERLY WIND OF 20-25KT...AND 4-7FT
SEAS (HIGHEST S) AND 3-4FT WAVES IN THE BAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SLIDES OFFSHORE SATURDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ/BMD









000
FXUS61 KRNK 031735
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1235 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...THEN A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL TRACK INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA
AND WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. COLDER
AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM EST TUESDAY...

CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAINLY WEST OF I77 WHERE
TEMPERATURES WERE ABOVE FREEZING MARK AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN AS
SUCH...AND RADAR COVERAGE IS LIGHT. STILL CONCERN OVER DIABATIC
COOLING OF TEMPERATURES WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION...THUS WILL HOLD
WITH REST OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. MODIFIED POPS
WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDS. SHAPED MORNING TEMPERATURES WITH SFC OBS
AND LATEST MODEL TRENDS. MORE CHANGES LATER THIS MORNING IN THE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN .


AS OF 415 AM EST TUESDAY...

LOWER CLOUDS WERE JUST FILLING IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND THE TIMING SHOWN ON THE LAST FEW RUNS OF
THE HRRR AND THE LATEST WRF GUIDANCE. HAVE THEREFORE MADE ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE VALID TIME OF THE ADVISORIES. APPEARS A MORE ORGANIZED AREAS
OF PRECIPITATION WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA BETWEEN
8AM AND NOON. STILL EXPECTING A BETTER PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
ON THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE. OTHERWISE...NO WELL DEFINED
FEATURES THAT WILL DEFINE WHERE AND WHEN PRECIPITATION WILL FALL.

WHEREVER THE PRECIPITATION IS...IT WILL BE LIGHT. BUFKIT NOT
SHOWING GOOD DENDRITIC GROWTH AND BY 15Z/10AM...WARM NOSE WILL BE
WELL STRONG ENOUGH TO RESULT IN LIQUID AS THE HYDROMETEORS FALL
THROUGH THAT LAYER. SO SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE DECIDING
FACTOR IN PRECIPITATION TYPE. NEW RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE
ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS WERE BELOW FREEZING. ONLY A SLOW RISE IN
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY. GUIDANCE KEPT THE NORTHEAST
COUNTIES...MAINLY FROM LYNCHBURG INTO AMHERST AND ROCKBRIDGE
COUNTY BELOW FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. HAVE DELAYED THE START
OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND EXTENDED THE ADVISORY THROUGH
LATER IN THE DAY WHERE THE TEMPERATURE REMAINS BELOW FREEZING.

TONIGHT...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PUSHES UP TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS. LOWS WILL OCCUR IN THE EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND THE PROBABILITY OF MODERATE RAIN IN THE
NORTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA INCREASES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EST TUESDAY...

EXPECT TO START WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT SITUATED FROM THE
ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE. STRONG MOISTURE
FLOW INTO THE AREA ON A 50KT TO 60KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET
WILL PUSH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO 1.0-1.1 INCHES IN THE
WEST...AND AS HIGH AS 1.4 INCHES FURTHER EAST...ALL SIGNIFICANTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH.

DURING THE MORNING...RAIN WILL BE WIDESPREAD WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST LIFT/HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
BE WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...JUST SKIRTING OUR SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA COUNTIES...PARTICULARLY THE WEST FACING SLOPES. FURTHER
EAST...WILL LIKELY SEE A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SOME DRYING TAKING
PLACE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AS WINDS SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY AND
DOWNSLOPE.

DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE COLD FRONT WILL
SLOW/STALL ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE AND NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT AS A
STRONG WAVE DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN GEORGIA AND PUSHES NORTHEAST
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE WAVE WILL PASS JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY...WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE
DEVELOPING FROM THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE...SUPPORTING AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN.

AS THE WAVE PASSES OUR AREA DURING LATE THURSDAY MORNING...IT WILL
ENHANCE THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...DRAWING COLD
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FURTHER ACROSS OUR AREA.
THE SURGE OF COLDER AIR HUGGING THE SURFACE WILL CAUSE RAIN TO
CHANGE TO SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...BEFORE FINALLY CHANGING TO SNOW BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
BECAUSE WE ARE EXPECTING MORE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...WENT WITH LOWER SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR THURSDAY.
RIGHT NOW...LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTER STORM SNOW AND
SLEET AMOUNTS FOR WESTERN GREENBRIER...AND PERHAPS BATH AND
ROCKBRIDGE COUNTIES IN SPOTS...BUT DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
GO WITH A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS POINT. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT
HAVE ANOTHER LOOK AT THE COMING 03/12Z MODEL RUNS.

PRECIPITATION WILL WIND DOWN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...SETTLING ACROSS THE MID AND UPPER
OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
MEAN ONE MORE SHOT OF SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES TO START THE DAY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH TEENS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND...WHERE IT WILL THEN WEDGE
SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT...HUGGING THE EASTERN FACE OF THE
APPALACHIANS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EST MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST...AND MAKE ITS WAY TO THE COAST BY SATURDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A TREND TOWARD MILDER CONDITIONS AS THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA BECOMES GRADUALLY MORE SW-W...WHILE A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND RISING 850 TEMPS TAKE PLACE.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY A GENEROUS AMOUNT OF VARIATIONS IN THE MODELS
TAKE PLACE. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM EVENTUALLY COME INTO
AGREEMENT OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF CONUS BY
MONDAY OR TUESDAY OR NEXT WEEK...HOW THE SOLUTIONS COME TO BE THAT
WAY HAVE NOTABLE DIFFERENCES. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN
ESTABLISHING THE TROUGH IN THE EAST BY SUNDAY...AND ANY SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEMS EASILY BYPASS OUR REGION EXITING THE U.S. NEAR THE
GA/FL BORDER. THE ECWMF IS NOT A QUICK TO ESTABLISH AN EAST COAST
TROUGH...AND A SUCH...SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS HAVE A BETTER
OPPORTUNITY TO PROGRESS NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR REGION ON THE EAST
SIDE OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

OUR FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BE A CONSENSUS OF THESE
TWO...WITH IT RESEMBLING A WATERED DOWN VERSION OF THE ECWMF IN
TERMS OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
ALSO STAYING ON MORE OF THE MILD SIDE THAN COLD IN REGARDS TO
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EST TUESDAY...

MVFR CONDITIONS WITH POCKETS OF IFR IN PRECIPITATION...CLOUDS AND
FOG THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
ALOFT WILL BRING ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING
DRIZZLE ACROSS OUR AREA. TRIMMED BACK AND NARROWED THE WINDOW FOR
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE TAFS FOR TONIGHT. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL BE IFR TO LIFR FOR MUCH OF THE AREA IN LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT ALL OF THE REGION
WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA BY WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH ABUNDANT RAIN. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED FORECAST...

 WINTER PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME THE MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION TYPES ARE
SNOW AND SLEET.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR
WEATHER.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 300 PM EST MONDAY

LIKELY TO SEE SOME SUBSTANTIAL RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS IN
RESPONSE TO UPCOMING RAIN EVENT AND SNOWMELT IN THE
MOUNTAINS...QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT HOW SUBSTANTIAL. SIGNIFICANT SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE NOW CONFINED TO PARTS OF THE UPPER JAMES AND
GREENBRIER RIVER BASINS WHERE THE LATEST AVAILABLE ESTIMATES FROM
THE NATIONAL OPERATIONAL REMOTE SENSING CENTER SHOW ROUGHLY 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT WITH ISOLATED 4 INCHES IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE GREENBRIER. IN THE OTHER MAJOR RIVER
BASINS...NEW...ROANOKE/DAN AND TENNESSEE... MELTING OVER THE
WEEKEND AND TODAY HAS REDUCED THE SNOW TO LESS THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW
WATER AND IN MOST PLACES ZERO.

THE OTHER ELEMENT OF COURSE IS THE QPF. 12Z MODELS (INCLUDING
LATEST EC) HAVE NUDGED THE HEAVIEST QPF A LITTLE MORE TO THE
WEST...REDUCING AMOUNTS IN THE JAMES AND GREENBRIER SOME. IT STILL
APPEARS AS IF 1 TO 2 INCHES COULD FALL ACROSS THE WESTERN BASINS
BY 12Z THURSDAY AND COMBINED WITH SNOWMELT THIS COULD PRODUCE AT
LEAST MINOR RIVER FLOODING ALONG THE GREENBRIER AND POSSIBLY THE
UPPER JAMES. GUIDANCE RECEIVED FROM OHRFC THIS MORNING SUGGESTED
MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT ALDERSON WV ON THE GREENBRIER LIKELY BY EARLY
THURSDAY WITH THE COMBINED SNOWMELT AND QPF. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTIES WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ011-013-014-017>019-022-023-032>034-043-045.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ020-024-035-046-047.
NC...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ043-044-507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS/KK
HYDROLOGY...PC




000
FXUS61 KRNK 031735
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1235 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...THEN A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL TRACK INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA
AND WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. COLDER
AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM EST TUESDAY...

CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAINLY WEST OF I77 WHERE
TEMPERATURES WERE ABOVE FREEZING MARK AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN AS
SUCH...AND RADAR COVERAGE IS LIGHT. STILL CONCERN OVER DIABATIC
COOLING OF TEMPERATURES WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION...THUS WILL HOLD
WITH REST OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. MODIFIED POPS
WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDS. SHAPED MORNING TEMPERATURES WITH SFC OBS
AND LATEST MODEL TRENDS. MORE CHANGES LATER THIS MORNING IN THE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN .


AS OF 415 AM EST TUESDAY...

LOWER CLOUDS WERE JUST FILLING IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND THE TIMING SHOWN ON THE LAST FEW RUNS OF
THE HRRR AND THE LATEST WRF GUIDANCE. HAVE THEREFORE MADE ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE VALID TIME OF THE ADVISORIES. APPEARS A MORE ORGANIZED AREAS
OF PRECIPITATION WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA BETWEEN
8AM AND NOON. STILL EXPECTING A BETTER PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
ON THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE. OTHERWISE...NO WELL DEFINED
FEATURES THAT WILL DEFINE WHERE AND WHEN PRECIPITATION WILL FALL.

WHEREVER THE PRECIPITATION IS...IT WILL BE LIGHT. BUFKIT NOT
SHOWING GOOD DENDRITIC GROWTH AND BY 15Z/10AM...WARM NOSE WILL BE
WELL STRONG ENOUGH TO RESULT IN LIQUID AS THE HYDROMETEORS FALL
THROUGH THAT LAYER. SO SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE DECIDING
FACTOR IN PRECIPITATION TYPE. NEW RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE
ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS WERE BELOW FREEZING. ONLY A SLOW RISE IN
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY. GUIDANCE KEPT THE NORTHEAST
COUNTIES...MAINLY FROM LYNCHBURG INTO AMHERST AND ROCKBRIDGE
COUNTY BELOW FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. HAVE DELAYED THE START
OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND EXTENDED THE ADVISORY THROUGH
LATER IN THE DAY WHERE THE TEMPERATURE REMAINS BELOW FREEZING.

TONIGHT...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PUSHES UP TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS. LOWS WILL OCCUR IN THE EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND THE PROBABILITY OF MODERATE RAIN IN THE
NORTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA INCREASES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EST TUESDAY...

EXPECT TO START WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT SITUATED FROM THE
ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE. STRONG MOISTURE
FLOW INTO THE AREA ON A 50KT TO 60KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET
WILL PUSH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO 1.0-1.1 INCHES IN THE
WEST...AND AS HIGH AS 1.4 INCHES FURTHER EAST...ALL SIGNIFICANTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH.

DURING THE MORNING...RAIN WILL BE WIDESPREAD WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST LIFT/HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
BE WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...JUST SKIRTING OUR SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA COUNTIES...PARTICULARLY THE WEST FACING SLOPES. FURTHER
EAST...WILL LIKELY SEE A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SOME DRYING TAKING
PLACE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AS WINDS SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY AND
DOWNSLOPE.

DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE COLD FRONT WILL
SLOW/STALL ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE AND NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT AS A
STRONG WAVE DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN GEORGIA AND PUSHES NORTHEAST
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE WAVE WILL PASS JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY...WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE
DEVELOPING FROM THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE...SUPPORTING AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN.

AS THE WAVE PASSES OUR AREA DURING LATE THURSDAY MORNING...IT WILL
ENHANCE THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...DRAWING COLD
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FURTHER ACROSS OUR AREA.
THE SURGE OF COLDER AIR HUGGING THE SURFACE WILL CAUSE RAIN TO
CHANGE TO SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...BEFORE FINALLY CHANGING TO SNOW BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
BECAUSE WE ARE EXPECTING MORE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...WENT WITH LOWER SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR THURSDAY.
RIGHT NOW...LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTER STORM SNOW AND
SLEET AMOUNTS FOR WESTERN GREENBRIER...AND PERHAPS BATH AND
ROCKBRIDGE COUNTIES IN SPOTS...BUT DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
GO WITH A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS POINT. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT
HAVE ANOTHER LOOK AT THE COMING 03/12Z MODEL RUNS.

PRECIPITATION WILL WIND DOWN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...SETTLING ACROSS THE MID AND UPPER
OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
MEAN ONE MORE SHOT OF SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES TO START THE DAY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH TEENS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND...WHERE IT WILL THEN WEDGE
SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT...HUGGING THE EASTERN FACE OF THE
APPALACHIANS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EST MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST...AND MAKE ITS WAY TO THE COAST BY SATURDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A TREND TOWARD MILDER CONDITIONS AS THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA BECOMES GRADUALLY MORE SW-W...WHILE A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND RISING 850 TEMPS TAKE PLACE.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY A GENEROUS AMOUNT OF VARIATIONS IN THE MODELS
TAKE PLACE. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM EVENTUALLY COME INTO
AGREEMENT OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF CONUS BY
MONDAY OR TUESDAY OR NEXT WEEK...HOW THE SOLUTIONS COME TO BE THAT
WAY HAVE NOTABLE DIFFERENCES. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN
ESTABLISHING THE TROUGH IN THE EAST BY SUNDAY...AND ANY SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEMS EASILY BYPASS OUR REGION EXITING THE U.S. NEAR THE
GA/FL BORDER. THE ECWMF IS NOT A QUICK TO ESTABLISH AN EAST COAST
TROUGH...AND A SUCH...SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS HAVE A BETTER
OPPORTUNITY TO PROGRESS NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR REGION ON THE EAST
SIDE OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

OUR FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BE A CONSENSUS OF THESE
TWO...WITH IT RESEMBLING A WATERED DOWN VERSION OF THE ECWMF IN
TERMS OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
ALSO STAYING ON MORE OF THE MILD SIDE THAN COLD IN REGARDS TO
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EST TUESDAY...

MVFR CONDITIONS WITH POCKETS OF IFR IN PRECIPITATION...CLOUDS AND
FOG THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
ALOFT WILL BRING ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING
DRIZZLE ACROSS OUR AREA. TRIMMED BACK AND NARROWED THE WINDOW FOR
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE TAFS FOR TONIGHT. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL BE IFR TO LIFR FOR MUCH OF THE AREA IN LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT ALL OF THE REGION
WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA BY WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH ABUNDANT RAIN. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED FORECAST...

 WINTER PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME THE MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION TYPES ARE
SNOW AND SLEET.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR
WEATHER.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 300 PM EST MONDAY

LIKELY TO SEE SOME SUBSTANTIAL RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS IN
RESPONSE TO UPCOMING RAIN EVENT AND SNOWMELT IN THE
MOUNTAINS...QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT HOW SUBSTANTIAL. SIGNIFICANT SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE NOW CONFINED TO PARTS OF THE UPPER JAMES AND
GREENBRIER RIVER BASINS WHERE THE LATEST AVAILABLE ESTIMATES FROM
THE NATIONAL OPERATIONAL REMOTE SENSING CENTER SHOW ROUGHLY 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT WITH ISOLATED 4 INCHES IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE GREENBRIER. IN THE OTHER MAJOR RIVER
BASINS...NEW...ROANOKE/DAN AND TENNESSEE... MELTING OVER THE
WEEKEND AND TODAY HAS REDUCED THE SNOW TO LESS THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW
WATER AND IN MOST PLACES ZERO.

THE OTHER ELEMENT OF COURSE IS THE QPF. 12Z MODELS (INCLUDING
LATEST EC) HAVE NUDGED THE HEAVIEST QPF A LITTLE MORE TO THE
WEST...REDUCING AMOUNTS IN THE JAMES AND GREENBRIER SOME. IT STILL
APPEARS AS IF 1 TO 2 INCHES COULD FALL ACROSS THE WESTERN BASINS
BY 12Z THURSDAY AND COMBINED WITH SNOWMELT THIS COULD PRODUCE AT
LEAST MINOR RIVER FLOODING ALONG THE GREENBRIER AND POSSIBLY THE
UPPER JAMES. GUIDANCE RECEIVED FROM OHRFC THIS MORNING SUGGESTED
MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT ALDERSON WV ON THE GREENBRIER LIKELY BY EARLY
THURSDAY WITH THE COMBINED SNOWMELT AND QPF. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTIES WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ011-013-014-017>019-022-023-032>034-043-045.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ020-024-035-046-047.
NC...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ043-044-507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS/KK
HYDROLOGY...PC



000
FXUS61 KRNK 031735
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1235 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...THEN A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL TRACK INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA
AND WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. COLDER
AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM EST TUESDAY...

CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAINLY WEST OF I77 WHERE
TEMPERATURES WERE ABOVE FREEZING MARK AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN AS
SUCH...AND RADAR COVERAGE IS LIGHT. STILL CONCERN OVER DIABATIC
COOLING OF TEMPERATURES WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION...THUS WILL HOLD
WITH REST OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. MODIFIED POPS
WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDS. SHAPED MORNING TEMPERATURES WITH SFC OBS
AND LATEST MODEL TRENDS. MORE CHANGES LATER THIS MORNING IN THE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN .


AS OF 415 AM EST TUESDAY...

LOWER CLOUDS WERE JUST FILLING IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND THE TIMING SHOWN ON THE LAST FEW RUNS OF
THE HRRR AND THE LATEST WRF GUIDANCE. HAVE THEREFORE MADE ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE VALID TIME OF THE ADVISORIES. APPEARS A MORE ORGANIZED AREAS
OF PRECIPITATION WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA BETWEEN
8AM AND NOON. STILL EXPECTING A BETTER PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
ON THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE. OTHERWISE...NO WELL DEFINED
FEATURES THAT WILL DEFINE WHERE AND WHEN PRECIPITATION WILL FALL.

WHEREVER THE PRECIPITATION IS...IT WILL BE LIGHT. BUFKIT NOT
SHOWING GOOD DENDRITIC GROWTH AND BY 15Z/10AM...WARM NOSE WILL BE
WELL STRONG ENOUGH TO RESULT IN LIQUID AS THE HYDROMETEORS FALL
THROUGH THAT LAYER. SO SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE DECIDING
FACTOR IN PRECIPITATION TYPE. NEW RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE
ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS WERE BELOW FREEZING. ONLY A SLOW RISE IN
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY. GUIDANCE KEPT THE NORTHEAST
COUNTIES...MAINLY FROM LYNCHBURG INTO AMHERST AND ROCKBRIDGE
COUNTY BELOW FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. HAVE DELAYED THE START
OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND EXTENDED THE ADVISORY THROUGH
LATER IN THE DAY WHERE THE TEMPERATURE REMAINS BELOW FREEZING.

TONIGHT...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PUSHES UP TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS. LOWS WILL OCCUR IN THE EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND THE PROBABILITY OF MODERATE RAIN IN THE
NORTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA INCREASES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EST TUESDAY...

EXPECT TO START WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT SITUATED FROM THE
ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE. STRONG MOISTURE
FLOW INTO THE AREA ON A 50KT TO 60KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET
WILL PUSH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO 1.0-1.1 INCHES IN THE
WEST...AND AS HIGH AS 1.4 INCHES FURTHER EAST...ALL SIGNIFICANTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH.

DURING THE MORNING...RAIN WILL BE WIDESPREAD WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST LIFT/HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
BE WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...JUST SKIRTING OUR SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA COUNTIES...PARTICULARLY THE WEST FACING SLOPES. FURTHER
EAST...WILL LIKELY SEE A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SOME DRYING TAKING
PLACE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AS WINDS SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY AND
DOWNSLOPE.

DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE COLD FRONT WILL
SLOW/STALL ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE AND NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT AS A
STRONG WAVE DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN GEORGIA AND PUSHES NORTHEAST
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE WAVE WILL PASS JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY...WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE
DEVELOPING FROM THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE...SUPPORTING AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN.

AS THE WAVE PASSES OUR AREA DURING LATE THURSDAY MORNING...IT WILL
ENHANCE THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...DRAWING COLD
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FURTHER ACROSS OUR AREA.
THE SURGE OF COLDER AIR HUGGING THE SURFACE WILL CAUSE RAIN TO
CHANGE TO SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...BEFORE FINALLY CHANGING TO SNOW BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
BECAUSE WE ARE EXPECTING MORE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...WENT WITH LOWER SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR THURSDAY.
RIGHT NOW...LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTER STORM SNOW AND
SLEET AMOUNTS FOR WESTERN GREENBRIER...AND PERHAPS BATH AND
ROCKBRIDGE COUNTIES IN SPOTS...BUT DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
GO WITH A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS POINT. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT
HAVE ANOTHER LOOK AT THE COMING 03/12Z MODEL RUNS.

PRECIPITATION WILL WIND DOWN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...SETTLING ACROSS THE MID AND UPPER
OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
MEAN ONE MORE SHOT OF SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES TO START THE DAY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH TEENS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND...WHERE IT WILL THEN WEDGE
SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT...HUGGING THE EASTERN FACE OF THE
APPALACHIANS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EST MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST...AND MAKE ITS WAY TO THE COAST BY SATURDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A TREND TOWARD MILDER CONDITIONS AS THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA BECOMES GRADUALLY MORE SW-W...WHILE A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND RISING 850 TEMPS TAKE PLACE.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY A GENEROUS AMOUNT OF VARIATIONS IN THE MODELS
TAKE PLACE. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM EVENTUALLY COME INTO
AGREEMENT OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF CONUS BY
MONDAY OR TUESDAY OR NEXT WEEK...HOW THE SOLUTIONS COME TO BE THAT
WAY HAVE NOTABLE DIFFERENCES. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN
ESTABLISHING THE TROUGH IN THE EAST BY SUNDAY...AND ANY SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEMS EASILY BYPASS OUR REGION EXITING THE U.S. NEAR THE
GA/FL BORDER. THE ECWMF IS NOT A QUICK TO ESTABLISH AN EAST COAST
TROUGH...AND A SUCH...SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS HAVE A BETTER
OPPORTUNITY TO PROGRESS NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR REGION ON THE EAST
SIDE OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

OUR FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BE A CONSENSUS OF THESE
TWO...WITH IT RESEMBLING A WATERED DOWN VERSION OF THE ECWMF IN
TERMS OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
ALSO STAYING ON MORE OF THE MILD SIDE THAN COLD IN REGARDS TO
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EST TUESDAY...

MVFR CONDITIONS WITH POCKETS OF IFR IN PRECIPITATION...CLOUDS AND
FOG THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
ALOFT WILL BRING ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING
DRIZZLE ACROSS OUR AREA. TRIMMED BACK AND NARROWED THE WINDOW FOR
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE TAFS FOR TONIGHT. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL BE IFR TO LIFR FOR MUCH OF THE AREA IN LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT ALL OF THE REGION
WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA BY WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH ABUNDANT RAIN. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED FORECAST...

 WINTER PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME THE MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION TYPES ARE
SNOW AND SLEET.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR
WEATHER.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 300 PM EST MONDAY

LIKELY TO SEE SOME SUBSTANTIAL RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS IN
RESPONSE TO UPCOMING RAIN EVENT AND SNOWMELT IN THE
MOUNTAINS...QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT HOW SUBSTANTIAL. SIGNIFICANT SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE NOW CONFINED TO PARTS OF THE UPPER JAMES AND
GREENBRIER RIVER BASINS WHERE THE LATEST AVAILABLE ESTIMATES FROM
THE NATIONAL OPERATIONAL REMOTE SENSING CENTER SHOW ROUGHLY 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT WITH ISOLATED 4 INCHES IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE GREENBRIER. IN THE OTHER MAJOR RIVER
BASINS...NEW...ROANOKE/DAN AND TENNESSEE... MELTING OVER THE
WEEKEND AND TODAY HAS REDUCED THE SNOW TO LESS THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW
WATER AND IN MOST PLACES ZERO.

THE OTHER ELEMENT OF COURSE IS THE QPF. 12Z MODELS (INCLUDING
LATEST EC) HAVE NUDGED THE HEAVIEST QPF A LITTLE MORE TO THE
WEST...REDUCING AMOUNTS IN THE JAMES AND GREENBRIER SOME. IT STILL
APPEARS AS IF 1 TO 2 INCHES COULD FALL ACROSS THE WESTERN BASINS
BY 12Z THURSDAY AND COMBINED WITH SNOWMELT THIS COULD PRODUCE AT
LEAST MINOR RIVER FLOODING ALONG THE GREENBRIER AND POSSIBLY THE
UPPER JAMES. GUIDANCE RECEIVED FROM OHRFC THIS MORNING SUGGESTED
MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT ALDERSON WV ON THE GREENBRIER LIKELY BY EARLY
THURSDAY WITH THE COMBINED SNOWMELT AND QPF. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTIES WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ011-013-014-017>019-022-023-032>034-043-045.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ020-024-035-046-047.
NC...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ043-044-507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS/KK
HYDROLOGY...PC



000
FXUS61 KLWX 031536 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1036 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE
LATER TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY LASTING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VERY CHALLENGING FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LIFT FROM WARM AIR ADVECTION IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA BUT PRECIPITATION IS HAVING A TOUGH TIME REACHING
THE GROUND DUE TO DRY AIR AT THE MID LEVELS. THE COLUMN WILL
GRADUALLY MOISTEN UP BUT PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START A BIT
LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THE LATER START TIME WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM A FEW DEGREES ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE
METRO AREAS. THIS MAKES THE FORECAST PROBLEMATIC WITH MILDER
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOCALES.

AREAS OF HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR ICING CONCERNS LOOK TO BE SETTING
UP TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON DC METRO
AREAS AND PORTIONS OF THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND HIGHLANDS. SHALLOW
COLD AIR WILL LIKELY HOLD IN LONGEST AND POSE THE GREATEST CONCERN
FOR SLIPPERY TRAVEL LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. AREAS
CLOSEST TO THE MASON DIXON LINE OVER NE MARYLAND MAY HOLD SUB
FREEZING AIR INTO THE LATE EVENING. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
ICING TO THE SOUTH WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS RUNNING 10 OR MORE
DEGREES AND DRY POCKET ALOFT. PRECIPITATION WILL COOL THE COLUMN
AT LEAST INITIALLY.

P-TYPES NOW LOOK TO BE MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN WITH SOME SLEET AT THE
START. LATER START TIMES LEND TO WARMING ALOFT WITH LESS POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW. PRECIP IN ALL AREAS WILL BE LIGHT.

TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING LATER TONIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA. RAIN RATES INCREASE OVER ALLEGHENIES LATE...WILL NEED TO BE
ON THE LOOKOUT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS GIVEN EXPECTED
SNOWPACK MELT WITH HIGHLAND TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT ENTERS CWA FROM THE WEST IN THE MORNING
AND DRIFTS EAST. WARMEST AIR IN NEARLY A MONTH (60F AT KIAD ON FEB
8) AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH LOW 50S (A LITTLE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECASTS) EXPECTED GIVEN WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER THE AREA AT THE TIME.
QPF QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY. MOST OF
THE AREA LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN SHORTWAVES IN THE AFTERNOON...REDUCING
RAIN RATES.

WEATHER IMPACTS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SFC BOUNDARY MAY HAVE
PUSHED A GOOD PART OF THE WAY THROUGH DURING THE EVENING...AS A WEAK
SFC WAVE IS PROJECTED TO CROSS THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...
COLDER TEMPS...ESPECIALLY ALOFT...WILL BE SLOW TO WORK SOUTHWARD.
PER COORDINATION WITH WPC...A GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION IS FAVORED...WHICH
ALLOWS THERMAL PROFILES TO COOL A BIT MORE QUICKLY AMONGST THE MODEL
SUITE. THIS ALSO GIVES A MORE DEFINITIVE RAIN-TO-SNOW TRANSITION VS
A MORE PRONOUNCED WARM NOSE IN THE NAM (LIKELY DUE TO A STRONGER SSW
LLJ IM THE 850-600MB LAYER) AND MORE MIXED PRECIP. CANNOT RULE OUT A
PERIOD OF IP/FZRA...BUT DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING/PLACEMENT TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. ON THE
WHOLE THOUGH...THERE WAS A SLIGHT SLOWING TREND OVERALL IN THE
TIMING OF PRECIP THROUGHOUT THE EVENT. ALL AREAS ARE FORECAST TO BE
SNOW BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH PRECIP ENDED NW-SE DURING THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY OR FALL.

SNOWFALL AMOUNT FORECASTS WILL BE CHALLENGING GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTIES WITH PTYPES...TIMING...AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE FALLS IN
THE COLD AIR. THERE WILL BE TREMENDOUS MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH
THE LLJ AS WELL AS LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET...BUT THE AXIS
OF HIGHEST QPF WILL LIKELY BE VERY NEAR THE TRANSITION ZONE...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR COLDER BUT DRIER AIR TO BEGIN WORKING INTO THE BACK
SIDE. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST OVER PREVIOUS. IF THE
QPF INDEED FALLS AFTER THE TRANSITION TO SNOW...OUR CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE. HOWEVER FEEL THERE IS STILL
TOO WIDE OF A SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS TO GO HIGHER. SEE OUR WEBPAGE
FOR THE PROB RANGES. WILL ALLOW DAYSHIFT TO DECIDE ON POTENTIAL
FOR WATCHES. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN LARGER SNOW TOTALS ARE OVER THE
HIGHLANDS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY
BE A PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. NAM INDICATES
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS A
VORT MAX PASSES...BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED THIS IN THE FORECAST NOW.
TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED COLDER...SINGLE DIGITS EXCEPT IN THE
METROS/NEAR THE BAY AND BELOW ZERO IN THE HIGHLANDS. IF GRADIENT
DOES NOT RELAX...WIND CHILL ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED IN THE
HIGHLANDS.

THE HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. FRIDAY
WILL STILL BE QUITE COLD BUT TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE
SATURDAY. MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONTS TRAILING LOW PRESSURE CENTERS
WELL TO THE NORTH WILL MAKE RUNS AT THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN MONDAY. FOR NOW HAVE ONLY INCLUDED POPS IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS.
THERE ALSO WILL BE LITTLE EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LIGHT WINTRY MIX OVERSPREADS THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. IFR CIGS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AT ONSET CHANGING
QUICKLY OVER TO FREEZING RAIN. WINTRY PRECIPITATION LIKELY TO
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN BY TONIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

RAIN IS FORECAST TO CHANGE TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT. VSBY/CIG
REDUCTIONS WILL CONTINUE AND MAY DROP TO LIFR IF MODERATE/HEAVY SNOW
DEVELOPS. THE SNOW WILL END ON THURSDAY. NO AVIATION HAZARDS
EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP BELOW
ADVISORY LEVEL TONIGHT. VSBY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL
CHANGE TO SNOW BY THURSDAY MORNING. SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE THEREAFTER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LIQUID PRECIP FCST FROM WPC WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AREA ONE
TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES. WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE INTO
THE 50S ON WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME...POSSIBLY A LOT
OF...MELTING OF THE EXISTING SNOWPACK...WHICH COMPUTER MODELS AND
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE CONTAINS ANYWHERE FROM 3/4 INCH TO 2 INCHES
OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT. THIS COMBINATION MAY LEAD TO MINOR
FLOODING AS THE RAIN FALLS ON WEDNESDAY. FURTHER COMPLICATING THIS
FORECAST IS AN EXPECTED CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA.

ALTHOUGH RIVER ICE IS NOT ESPECIALLY THICK...IT WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL ROLE IN AFFECTING RUNOFF. ALSO...PLOWED SNOW
IS LIKELY COVERING SOME OF THE DRAINS OUT THERE...WHICH COULD CAUSE
MORE POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING THAN WOULD OTHERWISE USUALLY BE
EXPECTED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     DCZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ501-
     502.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ003.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ004>006-011-013-014-503>508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ016>018.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ025>031-036>040-050-051-501>504-507-508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ053-054-505-506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ052-
     055>057.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ050-
     055-501>506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ051>053.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/ADS
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...BAJ/ADS
LONG TERM...ADS
AVIATION...ADS/KRW
MARINE...ADS/KRW
HYDROLOGY...JE




000
FXUS61 KLWX 031536 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1036 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE
LATER TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY LASTING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VERY CHALLENGING FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LIFT FROM WARM AIR ADVECTION IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA BUT PRECIPITATION IS HAVING A TOUGH TIME REACHING
THE GROUND DUE TO DRY AIR AT THE MID LEVELS. THE COLUMN WILL
GRADUALLY MOISTEN UP BUT PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START A BIT
LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THE LATER START TIME WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM A FEW DEGREES ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE
METRO AREAS. THIS MAKES THE FORECAST PROBLEMATIC WITH MILDER
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOCALES.

AREAS OF HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR ICING CONCERNS LOOK TO BE SETTING
UP TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON DC METRO
AREAS AND PORTIONS OF THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND HIGHLANDS. SHALLOW
COLD AIR WILL LIKELY HOLD IN LONGEST AND POSE THE GREATEST CONCERN
FOR SLIPPERY TRAVEL LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. AREAS
CLOSEST TO THE MASON DIXON LINE OVER NE MARYLAND MAY HOLD SUB
FREEZING AIR INTO THE LATE EVENING. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
ICING TO THE SOUTH WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS RUNNING 10 OR MORE
DEGREES AND DRY POCKET ALOFT. PRECIPITATION WILL COOL THE COLUMN
AT LEAST INITIALLY.

P-TYPES NOW LOOK TO BE MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN WITH SOME SLEET AT THE
START. LATER START TIMES LEND TO WARMING ALOFT WITH LESS POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW. PRECIP IN ALL AREAS WILL BE LIGHT.

TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING LATER TONIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA. RAIN RATES INCREASE OVER ALLEGHENIES LATE...WILL NEED TO BE
ON THE LOOKOUT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS GIVEN EXPECTED
SNOWPACK MELT WITH HIGHLAND TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT ENTERS CWA FROM THE WEST IN THE MORNING
AND DRIFTS EAST. WARMEST AIR IN NEARLY A MONTH (60F AT KIAD ON FEB
8) AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH LOW 50S (A LITTLE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECASTS) EXPECTED GIVEN WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER THE AREA AT THE TIME.
QPF QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY. MOST OF
THE AREA LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN SHORTWAVES IN THE AFTERNOON...REDUCING
RAIN RATES.

WEATHER IMPACTS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SFC BOUNDARY MAY HAVE
PUSHED A GOOD PART OF THE WAY THROUGH DURING THE EVENING...AS A WEAK
SFC WAVE IS PROJECTED TO CROSS THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...
COLDER TEMPS...ESPECIALLY ALOFT...WILL BE SLOW TO WORK SOUTHWARD.
PER COORDINATION WITH WPC...A GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION IS FAVORED...WHICH
ALLOWS THERMAL PROFILES TO COOL A BIT MORE QUICKLY AMONGST THE MODEL
SUITE. THIS ALSO GIVES A MORE DEFINITIVE RAIN-TO-SNOW TRANSITION VS
A MORE PRONOUNCED WARM NOSE IN THE NAM (LIKELY DUE TO A STRONGER SSW
LLJ IM THE 850-600MB LAYER) AND MORE MIXED PRECIP. CANNOT RULE OUT A
PERIOD OF IP/FZRA...BUT DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING/PLACEMENT TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. ON THE
WHOLE THOUGH...THERE WAS A SLIGHT SLOWING TREND OVERALL IN THE
TIMING OF PRECIP THROUGHOUT THE EVENT. ALL AREAS ARE FORECAST TO BE
SNOW BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH PRECIP ENDED NW-SE DURING THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY OR FALL.

SNOWFALL AMOUNT FORECASTS WILL BE CHALLENGING GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTIES WITH PTYPES...TIMING...AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE FALLS IN
THE COLD AIR. THERE WILL BE TREMENDOUS MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH
THE LLJ AS WELL AS LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET...BUT THE AXIS
OF HIGHEST QPF WILL LIKELY BE VERY NEAR THE TRANSITION ZONE...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR COLDER BUT DRIER AIR TO BEGIN WORKING INTO THE BACK
SIDE. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST OVER PREVIOUS. IF THE
QPF INDEED FALLS AFTER THE TRANSITION TO SNOW...OUR CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE. HOWEVER FEEL THERE IS STILL
TOO WIDE OF A SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS TO GO HIGHER. SEE OUR WEBPAGE
FOR THE PROB RANGES. WILL ALLOW DAYSHIFT TO DECIDE ON POTENTIAL
FOR WATCHES. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN LARGER SNOW TOTALS ARE OVER THE
HIGHLANDS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY
BE A PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. NAM INDICATES
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS A
VORT MAX PASSES...BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED THIS IN THE FORECAST NOW.
TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED COLDER...SINGLE DIGITS EXCEPT IN THE
METROS/NEAR THE BAY AND BELOW ZERO IN THE HIGHLANDS. IF GRADIENT
DOES NOT RELAX...WIND CHILL ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED IN THE
HIGHLANDS.

THE HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. FRIDAY
WILL STILL BE QUITE COLD BUT TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE
SATURDAY. MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONTS TRAILING LOW PRESSURE CENTERS
WELL TO THE NORTH WILL MAKE RUNS AT THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN MONDAY. FOR NOW HAVE ONLY INCLUDED POPS IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS.
THERE ALSO WILL BE LITTLE EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LIGHT WINTRY MIX OVERSPREADS THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. IFR CIGS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AT ONSET CHANGING
QUICKLY OVER TO FREEZING RAIN. WINTRY PRECIPITATION LIKELY TO
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN BY TONIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

RAIN IS FORECAST TO CHANGE TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT. VSBY/CIG
REDUCTIONS WILL CONTINUE AND MAY DROP TO LIFR IF MODERATE/HEAVY SNOW
DEVELOPS. THE SNOW WILL END ON THURSDAY. NO AVIATION HAZARDS
EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP BELOW
ADVISORY LEVEL TONIGHT. VSBY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL
CHANGE TO SNOW BY THURSDAY MORNING. SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE THEREAFTER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LIQUID PRECIP FCST FROM WPC WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AREA ONE
TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES. WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE INTO
THE 50S ON WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME...POSSIBLY A LOT
OF...MELTING OF THE EXISTING SNOWPACK...WHICH COMPUTER MODELS AND
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE CONTAINS ANYWHERE FROM 3/4 INCH TO 2 INCHES
OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT. THIS COMBINATION MAY LEAD TO MINOR
FLOODING AS THE RAIN FALLS ON WEDNESDAY. FURTHER COMPLICATING THIS
FORECAST IS AN EXPECTED CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA.

ALTHOUGH RIVER ICE IS NOT ESPECIALLY THICK...IT WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL ROLE IN AFFECTING RUNOFF. ALSO...PLOWED SNOW
IS LIKELY COVERING SOME OF THE DRAINS OUT THERE...WHICH COULD CAUSE
MORE POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING THAN WOULD OTHERWISE USUALLY BE
EXPECTED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     DCZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ501-
     502.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ003.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ004>006-011-013-014-503>508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ016>018.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ025>031-036>040-050-051-501>504-507-508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ053-054-505-506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ052-
     055>057.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ050-
     055-501>506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ051>053.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/ADS
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...BAJ/ADS
LONG TERM...ADS
AVIATION...ADS/KRW
MARINE...ADS/KRW
HYDROLOGY...JE



000
FXUS61 KLWX 031536 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1036 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE
LATER TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY LASTING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VERY CHALLENGING FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LIFT FROM WARM AIR ADVECTION IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA BUT PRECIPITATION IS HAVING A TOUGH TIME REACHING
THE GROUND DUE TO DRY AIR AT THE MID LEVELS. THE COLUMN WILL
GRADUALLY MOISTEN UP BUT PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START A BIT
LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THE LATER START TIME WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM A FEW DEGREES ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE
METRO AREAS. THIS MAKES THE FORECAST PROBLEMATIC WITH MILDER
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOCALES.

AREAS OF HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR ICING CONCERNS LOOK TO BE SETTING
UP TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON DC METRO
AREAS AND PORTIONS OF THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND HIGHLANDS. SHALLOW
COLD AIR WILL LIKELY HOLD IN LONGEST AND POSE THE GREATEST CONCERN
FOR SLIPPERY TRAVEL LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. AREAS
CLOSEST TO THE MASON DIXON LINE OVER NE MARYLAND MAY HOLD SUB
FREEZING AIR INTO THE LATE EVENING. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
ICING TO THE SOUTH WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS RUNNING 10 OR MORE
DEGREES AND DRY POCKET ALOFT. PRECIPITATION WILL COOL THE COLUMN
AT LEAST INITIALLY.

P-TYPES NOW LOOK TO BE MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN WITH SOME SLEET AT THE
START. LATER START TIMES LEND TO WARMING ALOFT WITH LESS POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW. PRECIP IN ALL AREAS WILL BE LIGHT.

TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING LATER TONIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA. RAIN RATES INCREASE OVER ALLEGHENIES LATE...WILL NEED TO BE
ON THE LOOKOUT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS GIVEN EXPECTED
SNOWPACK MELT WITH HIGHLAND TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT ENTERS CWA FROM THE WEST IN THE MORNING
AND DRIFTS EAST. WARMEST AIR IN NEARLY A MONTH (60F AT KIAD ON FEB
8) AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH LOW 50S (A LITTLE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECASTS) EXPECTED GIVEN WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER THE AREA AT THE TIME.
QPF QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY. MOST OF
THE AREA LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN SHORTWAVES IN THE AFTERNOON...REDUCING
RAIN RATES.

WEATHER IMPACTS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SFC BOUNDARY MAY HAVE
PUSHED A GOOD PART OF THE WAY THROUGH DURING THE EVENING...AS A WEAK
SFC WAVE IS PROJECTED TO CROSS THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...
COLDER TEMPS...ESPECIALLY ALOFT...WILL BE SLOW TO WORK SOUTHWARD.
PER COORDINATION WITH WPC...A GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION IS FAVORED...WHICH
ALLOWS THERMAL PROFILES TO COOL A BIT MORE QUICKLY AMONGST THE MODEL
SUITE. THIS ALSO GIVES A MORE DEFINITIVE RAIN-TO-SNOW TRANSITION VS
A MORE PRONOUNCED WARM NOSE IN THE NAM (LIKELY DUE TO A STRONGER SSW
LLJ IM THE 850-600MB LAYER) AND MORE MIXED PRECIP. CANNOT RULE OUT A
PERIOD OF IP/FZRA...BUT DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING/PLACEMENT TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. ON THE
WHOLE THOUGH...THERE WAS A SLIGHT SLOWING TREND OVERALL IN THE
TIMING OF PRECIP THROUGHOUT THE EVENT. ALL AREAS ARE FORECAST TO BE
SNOW BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH PRECIP ENDED NW-SE DURING THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY OR FALL.

SNOWFALL AMOUNT FORECASTS WILL BE CHALLENGING GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTIES WITH PTYPES...TIMING...AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE FALLS IN
THE COLD AIR. THERE WILL BE TREMENDOUS MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH
THE LLJ AS WELL AS LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET...BUT THE AXIS
OF HIGHEST QPF WILL LIKELY BE VERY NEAR THE TRANSITION ZONE...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR COLDER BUT DRIER AIR TO BEGIN WORKING INTO THE BACK
SIDE. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST OVER PREVIOUS. IF THE
QPF INDEED FALLS AFTER THE TRANSITION TO SNOW...OUR CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE. HOWEVER FEEL THERE IS STILL
TOO WIDE OF A SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS TO GO HIGHER. SEE OUR WEBPAGE
FOR THE PROB RANGES. WILL ALLOW DAYSHIFT TO DECIDE ON POTENTIAL
FOR WATCHES. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN LARGER SNOW TOTALS ARE OVER THE
HIGHLANDS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY
BE A PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. NAM INDICATES
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS A
VORT MAX PASSES...BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED THIS IN THE FORECAST NOW.
TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED COLDER...SINGLE DIGITS EXCEPT IN THE
METROS/NEAR THE BAY AND BELOW ZERO IN THE HIGHLANDS. IF GRADIENT
DOES NOT RELAX...WIND CHILL ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED IN THE
HIGHLANDS.

THE HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. FRIDAY
WILL STILL BE QUITE COLD BUT TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE
SATURDAY. MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONTS TRAILING LOW PRESSURE CENTERS
WELL TO THE NORTH WILL MAKE RUNS AT THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN MONDAY. FOR NOW HAVE ONLY INCLUDED POPS IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS.
THERE ALSO WILL BE LITTLE EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LIGHT WINTRY MIX OVERSPREADS THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. IFR CIGS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AT ONSET CHANGING
QUICKLY OVER TO FREEZING RAIN. WINTRY PRECIPITATION LIKELY TO
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN BY TONIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

RAIN IS FORECAST TO CHANGE TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT. VSBY/CIG
REDUCTIONS WILL CONTINUE AND MAY DROP TO LIFR IF MODERATE/HEAVY SNOW
DEVELOPS. THE SNOW WILL END ON THURSDAY. NO AVIATION HAZARDS
EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP BELOW
ADVISORY LEVEL TONIGHT. VSBY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL
CHANGE TO SNOW BY THURSDAY MORNING. SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE THEREAFTER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LIQUID PRECIP FCST FROM WPC WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AREA ONE
TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES. WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE INTO
THE 50S ON WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME...POSSIBLY A LOT
OF...MELTING OF THE EXISTING SNOWPACK...WHICH COMPUTER MODELS AND
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE CONTAINS ANYWHERE FROM 3/4 INCH TO 2 INCHES
OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT. THIS COMBINATION MAY LEAD TO MINOR
FLOODING AS THE RAIN FALLS ON WEDNESDAY. FURTHER COMPLICATING THIS
FORECAST IS AN EXPECTED CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA.

ALTHOUGH RIVER ICE IS NOT ESPECIALLY THICK...IT WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL ROLE IN AFFECTING RUNOFF. ALSO...PLOWED SNOW
IS LIKELY COVERING SOME OF THE DRAINS OUT THERE...WHICH COULD CAUSE
MORE POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING THAN WOULD OTHERWISE USUALLY BE
EXPECTED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     DCZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ501-
     502.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ003.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ004>006-011-013-014-503>508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ016>018.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ025>031-036>040-050-051-501>504-507-508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ053-054-505-506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ052-
     055>057.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ050-
     055-501>506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ051>053.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/ADS
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...BAJ/ADS
LONG TERM...ADS
AVIATION...ADS/KRW
MARINE...ADS/KRW
HYDROLOGY...JE




000
FXUS61 KLWX 031536 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1036 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE
LATER TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY LASTING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VERY CHALLENGING FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LIFT FROM WARM AIR ADVECTION IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA BUT PRECIPITATION IS HAVING A TOUGH TIME REACHING
THE GROUND DUE TO DRY AIR AT THE MID LEVELS. THE COLUMN WILL
GRADUALLY MOISTEN UP BUT PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START A BIT
LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THE LATER START TIME WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM A FEW DEGREES ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE
METRO AREAS. THIS MAKES THE FORECAST PROBLEMATIC WITH MILDER
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOCALES.

AREAS OF HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR ICING CONCERNS LOOK TO BE SETTING
UP TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON DC METRO
AREAS AND PORTIONS OF THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND HIGHLANDS. SHALLOW
COLD AIR WILL LIKELY HOLD IN LONGEST AND POSE THE GREATEST CONCERN
FOR SLIPPERY TRAVEL LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. AREAS
CLOSEST TO THE MASON DIXON LINE OVER NE MARYLAND MAY HOLD SUB
FREEZING AIR INTO THE LATE EVENING. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
ICING TO THE SOUTH WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS RUNNING 10 OR MORE
DEGREES AND DRY POCKET ALOFT. PRECIPITATION WILL COOL THE COLUMN
AT LEAST INITIALLY.

P-TYPES NOW LOOK TO BE MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN WITH SOME SLEET AT THE
START. LATER START TIMES LEND TO WARMING ALOFT WITH LESS POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW. PRECIP IN ALL AREAS WILL BE LIGHT.

TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING LATER TONIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA. RAIN RATES INCREASE OVER ALLEGHENIES LATE...WILL NEED TO BE
ON THE LOOKOUT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS GIVEN EXPECTED
SNOWPACK MELT WITH HIGHLAND TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT ENTERS CWA FROM THE WEST IN THE MORNING
AND DRIFTS EAST. WARMEST AIR IN NEARLY A MONTH (60F AT KIAD ON FEB
8) AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH LOW 50S (A LITTLE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECASTS) EXPECTED GIVEN WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER THE AREA AT THE TIME.
QPF QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY. MOST OF
THE AREA LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN SHORTWAVES IN THE AFTERNOON...REDUCING
RAIN RATES.

WEATHER IMPACTS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SFC BOUNDARY MAY HAVE
PUSHED A GOOD PART OF THE WAY THROUGH DURING THE EVENING...AS A WEAK
SFC WAVE IS PROJECTED TO CROSS THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...
COLDER TEMPS...ESPECIALLY ALOFT...WILL BE SLOW TO WORK SOUTHWARD.
PER COORDINATION WITH WPC...A GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION IS FAVORED...WHICH
ALLOWS THERMAL PROFILES TO COOL A BIT MORE QUICKLY AMONGST THE MODEL
SUITE. THIS ALSO GIVES A MORE DEFINITIVE RAIN-TO-SNOW TRANSITION VS
A MORE PRONOUNCED WARM NOSE IN THE NAM (LIKELY DUE TO A STRONGER SSW
LLJ IM THE 850-600MB LAYER) AND MORE MIXED PRECIP. CANNOT RULE OUT A
PERIOD OF IP/FZRA...BUT DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING/PLACEMENT TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. ON THE
WHOLE THOUGH...THERE WAS A SLIGHT SLOWING TREND OVERALL IN THE
TIMING OF PRECIP THROUGHOUT THE EVENT. ALL AREAS ARE FORECAST TO BE
SNOW BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH PRECIP ENDED NW-SE DURING THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY OR FALL.

SNOWFALL AMOUNT FORECASTS WILL BE CHALLENGING GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTIES WITH PTYPES...TIMING...AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE FALLS IN
THE COLD AIR. THERE WILL BE TREMENDOUS MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH
THE LLJ AS WELL AS LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET...BUT THE AXIS
OF HIGHEST QPF WILL LIKELY BE VERY NEAR THE TRANSITION ZONE...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR COLDER BUT DRIER AIR TO BEGIN WORKING INTO THE BACK
SIDE. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST OVER PREVIOUS. IF THE
QPF INDEED FALLS AFTER THE TRANSITION TO SNOW...OUR CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE. HOWEVER FEEL THERE IS STILL
TOO WIDE OF A SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS TO GO HIGHER. SEE OUR WEBPAGE
FOR THE PROB RANGES. WILL ALLOW DAYSHIFT TO DECIDE ON POTENTIAL
FOR WATCHES. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN LARGER SNOW TOTALS ARE OVER THE
HIGHLANDS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY
BE A PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. NAM INDICATES
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS A
VORT MAX PASSES...BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED THIS IN THE FORECAST NOW.
TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED COLDER...SINGLE DIGITS EXCEPT IN THE
METROS/NEAR THE BAY AND BELOW ZERO IN THE HIGHLANDS. IF GRADIENT
DOES NOT RELAX...WIND CHILL ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED IN THE
HIGHLANDS.

THE HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. FRIDAY
WILL STILL BE QUITE COLD BUT TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE
SATURDAY. MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONTS TRAILING LOW PRESSURE CENTERS
WELL TO THE NORTH WILL MAKE RUNS AT THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN MONDAY. FOR NOW HAVE ONLY INCLUDED POPS IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS.
THERE ALSO WILL BE LITTLE EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LIGHT WINTRY MIX OVERSPREADS THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. IFR CIGS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AT ONSET CHANGING
QUICKLY OVER TO FREEZING RAIN. WINTRY PRECIPITATION LIKELY TO
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN BY TONIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

RAIN IS FORECAST TO CHANGE TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT. VSBY/CIG
REDUCTIONS WILL CONTINUE AND MAY DROP TO LIFR IF MODERATE/HEAVY SNOW
DEVELOPS. THE SNOW WILL END ON THURSDAY. NO AVIATION HAZARDS
EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP BELOW
ADVISORY LEVEL TONIGHT. VSBY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL
CHANGE TO SNOW BY THURSDAY MORNING. SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE THEREAFTER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LIQUID PRECIP FCST FROM WPC WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AREA ONE
TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES. WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE INTO
THE 50S ON WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME...POSSIBLY A LOT
OF...MELTING OF THE EXISTING SNOWPACK...WHICH COMPUTER MODELS AND
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE CONTAINS ANYWHERE FROM 3/4 INCH TO 2 INCHES
OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT. THIS COMBINATION MAY LEAD TO MINOR
FLOODING AS THE RAIN FALLS ON WEDNESDAY. FURTHER COMPLICATING THIS
FORECAST IS AN EXPECTED CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA.

ALTHOUGH RIVER ICE IS NOT ESPECIALLY THICK...IT WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL ROLE IN AFFECTING RUNOFF. ALSO...PLOWED SNOW
IS LIKELY COVERING SOME OF THE DRAINS OUT THERE...WHICH COULD CAUSE
MORE POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING THAN WOULD OTHERWISE USUALLY BE
EXPECTED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     DCZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ501-
     502.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ003.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ004>006-011-013-014-503>508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ016>018.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ025>031-036>040-050-051-501>504-507-508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ053-054-505-506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ052-
     055>057.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ050-
     055-501>506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ051>053.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/ADS
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...BAJ/ADS
LONG TERM...ADS
AVIATION...ADS/KRW
MARINE...ADS/KRW
HYDROLOGY...JE



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031533
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1033 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATE THIS MORNG...HI PRES WAS CNTRD RIGHT ALONG THE CST. FLOW
ALOFT IS GENERALLY FM THE W...WELL OUT AHEAD OF BROAD TROF OVER
THE WRN CONUS. TEMPS WERE SLOWLY CLIMBING THRU THE 30S TO NEAR 40
DEGREES OVR THE AKQ CWA...WITH DWPTS RANGING FM THE MID TEENS TO
THE UPR 20S. RDR SHOWED ONLY VRY LGT MIXED PCPN OR RAIN OVR THE
MTNS OF WEST VA AND SW VA. CNTR OF HI PRES WILL PUSH OFFSHR THIS
AFTN...BUT LOW LEVEL CAD REMAINS OVER THE FA. A CLOUDY SKY WILL
LIMIT TEMP RISES THIS AFTN...WITH HIGHS ONLY RANGING FM THE MID
30S EXTRM NW TO THE MID 40S OVR NE NC. BETTER COVERAGE OF PCPN IS
EXPECTED MID/LATE AFTN...WITH BEST PCPN CHCS (50-60%) FOR MAINLY
LGT RAIN ACRS NRN AND WRN AREAS. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZRA OVR FAR NW AREAS BETWEEN 16-20Z
AS TEMPS STRUGGLE TO REACH/SURPASS 32F THRU EARLY THIS AFTN.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ATTM GIVEN MARGINAL TEMPS AND A WARM DAY
YESTERDAY. OTHERWISE...P-TYPE TO BE ALL RAIN OVR THE REGION THIS
AFTN/EVENG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM FRONT TO LIFT NE THROUGH THE FA TONIGHT. BEST MOISTURE AND
UVM ACRS CNTRL/NRN PORTIONS OF FA...THUS THE HIGHEST POPS...W/
WITH CHC POPS LIMITED TO SRN VA/NE NC. BULK OF THE RA LIFTS TO NRN
PORTION BY LT AT NGT. LO TEMPS LIKELY ARND 00Z/04 WITH RISING
TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPS BY 12Z/04 WED RISE INTO THE MID/UPR
40S TO MID 50S SE.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRONG SSW FLOW.
THERE RMN TIMING ISSUES W/ THE APPROACHING CDFNT FM THE NNW...HOWEVER
A GFS/ECMWF BLEND LOOKS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS
(40-70%) BY AFTN ACRS NRN TIER OF FA...W/ SLGT CHC TO CHC (20-40%)
TO THE S. FOR NOW...LEAVING OUT ANY MENTION OF T ACRS SRN VA/NE
NC...SINCE IT APRS MOST OF MOISTURE CONFINED TO W/ AND BEHIND THE
FNT. HI TEMPS FM THE U50S/L60S N TO L70S IN FAR SE VA/NE NC.

JUST ONE YEAR AGO...MARCH 2ND-3RD...WENT FM 60S TO L70S (THE 2ND)
TO A FEW INCHES OF SN (ON THE 3RD). THIS MAY OCCUR AGN THIS WK
(WED-THU).

FCST CHALLENGES CONT WED NGT THROUGH THU AS CDFNT SETTLES SSE
THROUGH THE FA...AND ANOTHER AREA OF ARCTIC SFC HI PRES BUILDS TWD
THE MS/OH VLYS. WILL LEAN TWD THE FASTER ARRIVAL OF COLDER SFC
AIR FM THE NNW (GFS/ECMWF) BY LT WED NGT AND CONTG ON THU. THE
MDLS EACH HINT AT WK SFC LO PRES TRACKING THROUGH NC AS S/W ALOFT
(IN FAST SWLY FLO) IS SHEARED AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE RGN. ALL
THIS LEADS TO A TRANSITION (WRT P-TYPE) LT WED/THU. RA...BECOMES
MIXED W/ IP-CHANGING TO SN/IP THEN ENDING AS SN FM NNW TO SE ACRS
THE FA (LASTLY ACRS NE NC BY MID OR LT AFTN THU). TIMING THOSE
TRANSITIONS AT THIS POINT VERY DIFFICULT...THOUGH CURRENTLY EXPECT
A LEAST LGT SN ACCUMS FOR AREAS N OF THE NC/VA BORDER BEFORE THE
DAY ENDS THU (T-2 INCHES S...1-4 INCHES N (HIGHEST PTNTTLY FM
RIC-SBY)). ALONG W/ THE TRANSITION TO WINTRY PCPN...GUSTY NNE WNDS
WILL BE PUSHING COLDER AIR INTO THE RGN. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM ARND
30F N TO THE LOW/MID 40S FAR S. TEMPS THU STEADY OR FALLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED IN WAKE OF THURS COLD FRONT...BUT
MODERATING TEMPS THRU THE WEEKEND WILL BRING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE THURS NIGHT WITH THE NRN PORTION OF THE
FRONT PUSHING WELL OFFSHORE. SRN PORTION PUSHES SWD OVER THE GULF
STATES/NRN GULF...STALLING IN WLY FLOW ALOFT. ENDED CHANCE POPS NEAR
THE COAST AT MIDNIGHT...WITH DRYING/CLEARING CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.
1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FRI...RESULTING
IN ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. H85
TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND -12C (-2 STD DEV)...WITH THICKNESSES
YIELDING TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI
NIGHT WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING MODERATE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.
TEMPS FORECAST IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS FRI NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. THEREAFTER...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE THANKS
TO DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW OVER THE WRN CONUS. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
AGAIN BE CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC FLOW (TROUGHING) OVER THE ERN
CONUS AND RIDGING (RETURN TO A +PNA) OVER THE WRN CONUS. MODELS
STRUGGLING WITH A NUMBER OF CANADIAN IMPULSES SET TO IMPACT THE NE
STATES...BUT ALSO SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE BAJA THIS WEEKEND.
ECMWF RATHER ROBUST WITH THIS ENERGY...TRANSLATING ACROSS NRN MEXICO
AND THE SRN PLAINS SAT NIGHT-SUN...POSSIBLY PHASING WITH NRN STREAM
ENERGY OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS SOLUTION WOULD LIFT THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF NWD LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
RAIN TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS SHEARS THE
ENERGY...KEEPING IT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...KEEPING THE LOCAL
AREA DRY. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD A WPC/ENSEMBLE APPROACH WHICH
KEEPS THE SRN STREAM WAVE FLAT AND THE LOCAL AREA DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND..WITH MODERATING TEMPS. HIGHS SAT FORECAST IN THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-MID 40S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS SUN IN THE
MID 50S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 40S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PASS OVER THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WITH A LIGHT NNE WIND DUE TO 1030MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER
PA. ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE ECG...WHICH WILL HAVE A PERIOD OF 5KFT
CIGS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF -RA IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY AFTER 21Z.
CIGS LOWER TO 4-5KFT THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH A LIGHT ESE WIND.
THERE IS AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
THE CHC OF RA INCREASES LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RA
OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING. A TRANSITION TO
A MIX AND EVENTUALLY SN SHOULD BEGIN AT SBY AFTER 06Z...WITH THE
TRANSITION OCCURRING AT RIC CLOSER TO 12Z. FARTHER SE...THE CHANGE
SHOULD OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY. ADDITIONALLY...A GUSTY NORTHERLY
WIND WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
1030MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE TODAY ALLOWING A
10-15KT NNE WIND TO BECOME SE AOB 10KT BY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH SHIFTS
FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.
DESPITE A STRONG LLJ IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO OBTAIN SCA CONDITIONS
GIVEN WAA OVER COLD WATER. GIVEN THIS...WIND/SEAS HAVE BEEN CAPPED
BELOW SCA CRITERIA. OVERALL...EXPECT A SSW WIND ~15KT FOR THE BAY
AND A 15-20KT FOR THE OCEAN ALONG WITH 3-4FT SEAS/2-3FT WAVES. A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NNW WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND SLOWLY
DROPS TO A POSITION NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. THE FRONT THEN BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. CAA COMMENCES THURSDAY AS
THE LOW PULLS OFFSHORE AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS 1040MB
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH A NORTHERLY WIND OF 20-25KT...AND 4-7FT
SEAS (HIGHEST S) AND 3-4FT WAVES IN THE BAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SLIDES OFFSHORE SATURDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031533
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1033 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATE THIS MORNG...HI PRES WAS CNTRD RIGHT ALONG THE CST. FLOW
ALOFT IS GENERALLY FM THE W...WELL OUT AHEAD OF BROAD TROF OVER
THE WRN CONUS. TEMPS WERE SLOWLY CLIMBING THRU THE 30S TO NEAR 40
DEGREES OVR THE AKQ CWA...WITH DWPTS RANGING FM THE MID TEENS TO
THE UPR 20S. RDR SHOWED ONLY VRY LGT MIXED PCPN OR RAIN OVR THE
MTNS OF WEST VA AND SW VA. CNTR OF HI PRES WILL PUSH OFFSHR THIS
AFTN...BUT LOW LEVEL CAD REMAINS OVER THE FA. A CLOUDY SKY WILL
LIMIT TEMP RISES THIS AFTN...WITH HIGHS ONLY RANGING FM THE MID
30S EXTRM NW TO THE MID 40S OVR NE NC. BETTER COVERAGE OF PCPN IS
EXPECTED MID/LATE AFTN...WITH BEST PCPN CHCS (50-60%) FOR MAINLY
LGT RAIN ACRS NRN AND WRN AREAS. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZRA OVR FAR NW AREAS BETWEEN 16-20Z
AS TEMPS STRUGGLE TO REACH/SURPASS 32F THRU EARLY THIS AFTN.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ATTM GIVEN MARGINAL TEMPS AND A WARM DAY
YESTERDAY. OTHERWISE...P-TYPE TO BE ALL RAIN OVR THE REGION THIS
AFTN/EVENG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM FRONT TO LIFT NE THROUGH THE FA TONIGHT. BEST MOISTURE AND
UVM ACRS CNTRL/NRN PORTIONS OF FA...THUS THE HIGHEST POPS...W/
WITH CHC POPS LIMITED TO SRN VA/NE NC. BULK OF THE RA LIFTS TO NRN
PORTION BY LT AT NGT. LO TEMPS LIKELY ARND 00Z/04 WITH RISING
TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPS BY 12Z/04 WED RISE INTO THE MID/UPR
40S TO MID 50S SE.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRONG SSW FLOW.
THERE RMN TIMING ISSUES W/ THE APPROACHING CDFNT FM THE NNW...HOWEVER
A GFS/ECMWF BLEND LOOKS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS
(40-70%) BY AFTN ACRS NRN TIER OF FA...W/ SLGT CHC TO CHC (20-40%)
TO THE S. FOR NOW...LEAVING OUT ANY MENTION OF T ACRS SRN VA/NE
NC...SINCE IT APRS MOST OF MOISTURE CONFINED TO W/ AND BEHIND THE
FNT. HI TEMPS FM THE U50S/L60S N TO L70S IN FAR SE VA/NE NC.

JUST ONE YEAR AGO...MARCH 2ND-3RD...WENT FM 60S TO L70S (THE 2ND)
TO A FEW INCHES OF SN (ON THE 3RD). THIS MAY OCCUR AGN THIS WK
(WED-THU).

FCST CHALLENGES CONT WED NGT THROUGH THU AS CDFNT SETTLES SSE
THROUGH THE FA...AND ANOTHER AREA OF ARCTIC SFC HI PRES BUILDS TWD
THE MS/OH VLYS. WILL LEAN TWD THE FASTER ARRIVAL OF COLDER SFC
AIR FM THE NNW (GFS/ECMWF) BY LT WED NGT AND CONTG ON THU. THE
MDLS EACH HINT AT WK SFC LO PRES TRACKING THROUGH NC AS S/W ALOFT
(IN FAST SWLY FLO) IS SHEARED AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE RGN. ALL
THIS LEADS TO A TRANSITION (WRT P-TYPE) LT WED/THU. RA...BECOMES
MIXED W/ IP-CHANGING TO SN/IP THEN ENDING AS SN FM NNW TO SE ACRS
THE FA (LASTLY ACRS NE NC BY MID OR LT AFTN THU). TIMING THOSE
TRANSITIONS AT THIS POINT VERY DIFFICULT...THOUGH CURRENTLY EXPECT
A LEAST LGT SN ACCUMS FOR AREAS N OF THE NC/VA BORDER BEFORE THE
DAY ENDS THU (T-2 INCHES S...1-4 INCHES N (HIGHEST PTNTTLY FM
RIC-SBY)). ALONG W/ THE TRANSITION TO WINTRY PCPN...GUSTY NNE WNDS
WILL BE PUSHING COLDER AIR INTO THE RGN. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM ARND
30F N TO THE LOW/MID 40S FAR S. TEMPS THU STEADY OR FALLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED IN WAKE OF THURS COLD FRONT...BUT
MODERATING TEMPS THRU THE WEEKEND WILL BRING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE THURS NIGHT WITH THE NRN PORTION OF THE
FRONT PUSHING WELL OFFSHORE. SRN PORTION PUSHES SWD OVER THE GULF
STATES/NRN GULF...STALLING IN WLY FLOW ALOFT. ENDED CHANCE POPS NEAR
THE COAST AT MIDNIGHT...WITH DRYING/CLEARING CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.
1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FRI...RESULTING
IN ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. H85
TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND -12C (-2 STD DEV)...WITH THICKNESSES
YIELDING TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI
NIGHT WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING MODERATE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.
TEMPS FORECAST IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS FRI NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. THEREAFTER...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE THANKS
TO DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW OVER THE WRN CONUS. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
AGAIN BE CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC FLOW (TROUGHING) OVER THE ERN
CONUS AND RIDGING (RETURN TO A +PNA) OVER THE WRN CONUS. MODELS
STRUGGLING WITH A NUMBER OF CANADIAN IMPULSES SET TO IMPACT THE NE
STATES...BUT ALSO SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE BAJA THIS WEEKEND.
ECMWF RATHER ROBUST WITH THIS ENERGY...TRANSLATING ACROSS NRN MEXICO
AND THE SRN PLAINS SAT NIGHT-SUN...POSSIBLY PHASING WITH NRN STREAM
ENERGY OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS SOLUTION WOULD LIFT THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF NWD LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
RAIN TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS SHEARS THE
ENERGY...KEEPING IT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...KEEPING THE LOCAL
AREA DRY. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD A WPC/ENSEMBLE APPROACH WHICH
KEEPS THE SRN STREAM WAVE FLAT AND THE LOCAL AREA DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND..WITH MODERATING TEMPS. HIGHS SAT FORECAST IN THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-MID 40S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS SUN IN THE
MID 50S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 40S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PASS OVER THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WITH A LIGHT NNE WIND DUE TO 1030MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER
PA. ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE ECG...WHICH WILL HAVE A PERIOD OF 5KFT
CIGS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF -RA IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY AFTER 21Z.
CIGS LOWER TO 4-5KFT THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH A LIGHT ESE WIND.
THERE IS AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
THE CHC OF RA INCREASES LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RA
OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING. A TRANSITION TO
A MIX AND EVENTUALLY SN SHOULD BEGIN AT SBY AFTER 06Z...WITH THE
TRANSITION OCCURRING AT RIC CLOSER TO 12Z. FARTHER SE...THE CHANGE
SHOULD OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY. ADDITIONALLY...A GUSTY NORTHERLY
WIND WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
1030MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE TODAY ALLOWING A
10-15KT NNE WIND TO BECOME SE AOB 10KT BY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH SHIFTS
FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.
DESPITE A STRONG LLJ IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO OBTAIN SCA CONDITIONS
GIVEN WAA OVER COLD WATER. GIVEN THIS...WIND/SEAS HAVE BEEN CAPPED
BELOW SCA CRITERIA. OVERALL...EXPECT A SSW WIND ~15KT FOR THE BAY
AND A 15-20KT FOR THE OCEAN ALONG WITH 3-4FT SEAS/2-3FT WAVES. A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NNW WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND SLOWLY
DROPS TO A POSITION NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. THE FRONT THEN BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. CAA COMMENCES THURSDAY AS
THE LOW PULLS OFFSHORE AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS 1040MB
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH A NORTHERLY WIND OF 20-25KT...AND 4-7FT
SEAS (HIGHEST S) AND 3-4FT WAVES IN THE BAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SLIDES OFFSHORE SATURDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031533
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1033 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATE THIS MORNG...HI PRES WAS CNTRD RIGHT ALONG THE CST. FLOW
ALOFT IS GENERALLY FM THE W...WELL OUT AHEAD OF BROAD TROF OVER
THE WRN CONUS. TEMPS WERE SLOWLY CLIMBING THRU THE 30S TO NEAR 40
DEGREES OVR THE AKQ CWA...WITH DWPTS RANGING FM THE MID TEENS TO
THE UPR 20S. RDR SHOWED ONLY VRY LGT MIXED PCPN OR RAIN OVR THE
MTNS OF WEST VA AND SW VA. CNTR OF HI PRES WILL PUSH OFFSHR THIS
AFTN...BUT LOW LEVEL CAD REMAINS OVER THE FA. A CLOUDY SKY WILL
LIMIT TEMP RISES THIS AFTN...WITH HIGHS ONLY RANGING FM THE MID
30S EXTRM NW TO THE MID 40S OVR NE NC. BETTER COVERAGE OF PCPN IS
EXPECTED MID/LATE AFTN...WITH BEST PCPN CHCS (50-60%) FOR MAINLY
LGT RAIN ACRS NRN AND WRN AREAS. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZRA OVR FAR NW AREAS BETWEEN 16-20Z
AS TEMPS STRUGGLE TO REACH/SURPASS 32F THRU EARLY THIS AFTN.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ATTM GIVEN MARGINAL TEMPS AND A WARM DAY
YESTERDAY. OTHERWISE...P-TYPE TO BE ALL RAIN OVR THE REGION THIS
AFTN/EVENG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM FRONT TO LIFT NE THROUGH THE FA TONIGHT. BEST MOISTURE AND
UVM ACRS CNTRL/NRN PORTIONS OF FA...THUS THE HIGHEST POPS...W/
WITH CHC POPS LIMITED TO SRN VA/NE NC. BULK OF THE RA LIFTS TO NRN
PORTION BY LT AT NGT. LO TEMPS LIKELY ARND 00Z/04 WITH RISING
TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPS BY 12Z/04 WED RISE INTO THE MID/UPR
40S TO MID 50S SE.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRONG SSW FLOW.
THERE RMN TIMING ISSUES W/ THE APPROACHING CDFNT FM THE NNW...HOWEVER
A GFS/ECMWF BLEND LOOKS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS
(40-70%) BY AFTN ACRS NRN TIER OF FA...W/ SLGT CHC TO CHC (20-40%)
TO THE S. FOR NOW...LEAVING OUT ANY MENTION OF T ACRS SRN VA/NE
NC...SINCE IT APRS MOST OF MOISTURE CONFINED TO W/ AND BEHIND THE
FNT. HI TEMPS FM THE U50S/L60S N TO L70S IN FAR SE VA/NE NC.

JUST ONE YEAR AGO...MARCH 2ND-3RD...WENT FM 60S TO L70S (THE 2ND)
TO A FEW INCHES OF SN (ON THE 3RD). THIS MAY OCCUR AGN THIS WK
(WED-THU).

FCST CHALLENGES CONT WED NGT THROUGH THU AS CDFNT SETTLES SSE
THROUGH THE FA...AND ANOTHER AREA OF ARCTIC SFC HI PRES BUILDS TWD
THE MS/OH VLYS. WILL LEAN TWD THE FASTER ARRIVAL OF COLDER SFC
AIR FM THE NNW (GFS/ECMWF) BY LT WED NGT AND CONTG ON THU. THE
MDLS EACH HINT AT WK SFC LO PRES TRACKING THROUGH NC AS S/W ALOFT
(IN FAST SWLY FLO) IS SHEARED AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE RGN. ALL
THIS LEADS TO A TRANSITION (WRT P-TYPE) LT WED/THU. RA...BECOMES
MIXED W/ IP-CHANGING TO SN/IP THEN ENDING AS SN FM NNW TO SE ACRS
THE FA (LASTLY ACRS NE NC BY MID OR LT AFTN THU). TIMING THOSE
TRANSITIONS AT THIS POINT VERY DIFFICULT...THOUGH CURRENTLY EXPECT
A LEAST LGT SN ACCUMS FOR AREAS N OF THE NC/VA BORDER BEFORE THE
DAY ENDS THU (T-2 INCHES S...1-4 INCHES N (HIGHEST PTNTTLY FM
RIC-SBY)). ALONG W/ THE TRANSITION TO WINTRY PCPN...GUSTY NNE WNDS
WILL BE PUSHING COLDER AIR INTO THE RGN. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM ARND
30F N TO THE LOW/MID 40S FAR S. TEMPS THU STEADY OR FALLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED IN WAKE OF THURS COLD FRONT...BUT
MODERATING TEMPS THRU THE WEEKEND WILL BRING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE THURS NIGHT WITH THE NRN PORTION OF THE
FRONT PUSHING WELL OFFSHORE. SRN PORTION PUSHES SWD OVER THE GULF
STATES/NRN GULF...STALLING IN WLY FLOW ALOFT. ENDED CHANCE POPS NEAR
THE COAST AT MIDNIGHT...WITH DRYING/CLEARING CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.
1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FRI...RESULTING
IN ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. H85
TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND -12C (-2 STD DEV)...WITH THICKNESSES
YIELDING TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI
NIGHT WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING MODERATE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.
TEMPS FORECAST IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS FRI NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. THEREAFTER...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE THANKS
TO DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW OVER THE WRN CONUS. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
AGAIN BE CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC FLOW (TROUGHING) OVER THE ERN
CONUS AND RIDGING (RETURN TO A +PNA) OVER THE WRN CONUS. MODELS
STRUGGLING WITH A NUMBER OF CANADIAN IMPULSES SET TO IMPACT THE NE
STATES...BUT ALSO SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE BAJA THIS WEEKEND.
ECMWF RATHER ROBUST WITH THIS ENERGY...TRANSLATING ACROSS NRN MEXICO
AND THE SRN PLAINS SAT NIGHT-SUN...POSSIBLY PHASING WITH NRN STREAM
ENERGY OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS SOLUTION WOULD LIFT THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF NWD LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
RAIN TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS SHEARS THE
ENERGY...KEEPING IT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...KEEPING THE LOCAL
AREA DRY. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD A WPC/ENSEMBLE APPROACH WHICH
KEEPS THE SRN STREAM WAVE FLAT AND THE LOCAL AREA DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND..WITH MODERATING TEMPS. HIGHS SAT FORECAST IN THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-MID 40S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS SUN IN THE
MID 50S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 40S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PASS OVER THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WITH A LIGHT NNE WIND DUE TO 1030MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER
PA. ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE ECG...WHICH WILL HAVE A PERIOD OF 5KFT
CIGS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF -RA IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY AFTER 21Z.
CIGS LOWER TO 4-5KFT THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH A LIGHT ESE WIND.
THERE IS AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
THE CHC OF RA INCREASES LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RA
OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING. A TRANSITION TO
A MIX AND EVENTUALLY SN SHOULD BEGIN AT SBY AFTER 06Z...WITH THE
TRANSITION OCCURRING AT RIC CLOSER TO 12Z. FARTHER SE...THE CHANGE
SHOULD OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY. ADDITIONALLY...A GUSTY NORTHERLY
WIND WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
1030MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE TODAY ALLOWING A
10-15KT NNE WIND TO BECOME SE AOB 10KT BY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH SHIFTS
FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.
DESPITE A STRONG LLJ IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO OBTAIN SCA CONDITIONS
GIVEN WAA OVER COLD WATER. GIVEN THIS...WIND/SEAS HAVE BEEN CAPPED
BELOW SCA CRITERIA. OVERALL...EXPECT A SSW WIND ~15KT FOR THE BAY
AND A 15-20KT FOR THE OCEAN ALONG WITH 3-4FT SEAS/2-3FT WAVES. A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NNW WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND SLOWLY
DROPS TO A POSITION NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. THE FRONT THEN BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. CAA COMMENCES THURSDAY AS
THE LOW PULLS OFFSHORE AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS 1040MB
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH A NORTHERLY WIND OF 20-25KT...AND 4-7FT
SEAS (HIGHEST S) AND 3-4FT WAVES IN THE BAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SLIDES OFFSHORE SATURDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031533
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1033 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATE THIS MORNG...HI PRES WAS CNTRD RIGHT ALONG THE CST. FLOW
ALOFT IS GENERALLY FM THE W...WELL OUT AHEAD OF BROAD TROF OVER
THE WRN CONUS. TEMPS WERE SLOWLY CLIMBING THRU THE 30S TO NEAR 40
DEGREES OVR THE AKQ CWA...WITH DWPTS RANGING FM THE MID TEENS TO
THE UPR 20S. RDR SHOWED ONLY VRY LGT MIXED PCPN OR RAIN OVR THE
MTNS OF WEST VA AND SW VA. CNTR OF HI PRES WILL PUSH OFFSHR THIS
AFTN...BUT LOW LEVEL CAD REMAINS OVER THE FA. A CLOUDY SKY WILL
LIMIT TEMP RISES THIS AFTN...WITH HIGHS ONLY RANGING FM THE MID
30S EXTRM NW TO THE MID 40S OVR NE NC. BETTER COVERAGE OF PCPN IS
EXPECTED MID/LATE AFTN...WITH BEST PCPN CHCS (50-60%) FOR MAINLY
LGT RAIN ACRS NRN AND WRN AREAS. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZRA OVR FAR NW AREAS BETWEEN 16-20Z
AS TEMPS STRUGGLE TO REACH/SURPASS 32F THRU EARLY THIS AFTN.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ATTM GIVEN MARGINAL TEMPS AND A WARM DAY
YESTERDAY. OTHERWISE...P-TYPE TO BE ALL RAIN OVR THE REGION THIS
AFTN/EVENG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM FRONT TO LIFT NE THROUGH THE FA TONIGHT. BEST MOISTURE AND
UVM ACRS CNTRL/NRN PORTIONS OF FA...THUS THE HIGHEST POPS...W/
WITH CHC POPS LIMITED TO SRN VA/NE NC. BULK OF THE RA LIFTS TO NRN
PORTION BY LT AT NGT. LO TEMPS LIKELY ARND 00Z/04 WITH RISING
TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPS BY 12Z/04 WED RISE INTO THE MID/UPR
40S TO MID 50S SE.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRONG SSW FLOW.
THERE RMN TIMING ISSUES W/ THE APPROACHING CDFNT FM THE NNW...HOWEVER
A GFS/ECMWF BLEND LOOKS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS
(40-70%) BY AFTN ACRS NRN TIER OF FA...W/ SLGT CHC TO CHC (20-40%)
TO THE S. FOR NOW...LEAVING OUT ANY MENTION OF T ACRS SRN VA/NE
NC...SINCE IT APRS MOST OF MOISTURE CONFINED TO W/ AND BEHIND THE
FNT. HI TEMPS FM THE U50S/L60S N TO L70S IN FAR SE VA/NE NC.

JUST ONE YEAR AGO...MARCH 2ND-3RD...WENT FM 60S TO L70S (THE 2ND)
TO A FEW INCHES OF SN (ON THE 3RD). THIS MAY OCCUR AGN THIS WK
(WED-THU).

FCST CHALLENGES CONT WED NGT THROUGH THU AS CDFNT SETTLES SSE
THROUGH THE FA...AND ANOTHER AREA OF ARCTIC SFC HI PRES BUILDS TWD
THE MS/OH VLYS. WILL LEAN TWD THE FASTER ARRIVAL OF COLDER SFC
AIR FM THE NNW (GFS/ECMWF) BY LT WED NGT AND CONTG ON THU. THE
MDLS EACH HINT AT WK SFC LO PRES TRACKING THROUGH NC AS S/W ALOFT
(IN FAST SWLY FLO) IS SHEARED AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE RGN. ALL
THIS LEADS TO A TRANSITION (WRT P-TYPE) LT WED/THU. RA...BECOMES
MIXED W/ IP-CHANGING TO SN/IP THEN ENDING AS SN FM NNW TO SE ACRS
THE FA (LASTLY ACRS NE NC BY MID OR LT AFTN THU). TIMING THOSE
TRANSITIONS AT THIS POINT VERY DIFFICULT...THOUGH CURRENTLY EXPECT
A LEAST LGT SN ACCUMS FOR AREAS N OF THE NC/VA BORDER BEFORE THE
DAY ENDS THU (T-2 INCHES S...1-4 INCHES N (HIGHEST PTNTTLY FM
RIC-SBY)). ALONG W/ THE TRANSITION TO WINTRY PCPN...GUSTY NNE WNDS
WILL BE PUSHING COLDER AIR INTO THE RGN. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM ARND
30F N TO THE LOW/MID 40S FAR S. TEMPS THU STEADY OR FALLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED IN WAKE OF THURS COLD FRONT...BUT
MODERATING TEMPS THRU THE WEEKEND WILL BRING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE THURS NIGHT WITH THE NRN PORTION OF THE
FRONT PUSHING WELL OFFSHORE. SRN PORTION PUSHES SWD OVER THE GULF
STATES/NRN GULF...STALLING IN WLY FLOW ALOFT. ENDED CHANCE POPS NEAR
THE COAST AT MIDNIGHT...WITH DRYING/CLEARING CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.
1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FRI...RESULTING
IN ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. H85
TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND -12C (-2 STD DEV)...WITH THICKNESSES
YIELDING TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI
NIGHT WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING MODERATE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.
TEMPS FORECAST IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS FRI NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. THEREAFTER...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE THANKS
TO DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW OVER THE WRN CONUS. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
AGAIN BE CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC FLOW (TROUGHING) OVER THE ERN
CONUS AND RIDGING (RETURN TO A +PNA) OVER THE WRN CONUS. MODELS
STRUGGLING WITH A NUMBER OF CANADIAN IMPULSES SET TO IMPACT THE NE
STATES...BUT ALSO SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE BAJA THIS WEEKEND.
ECMWF RATHER ROBUST WITH THIS ENERGY...TRANSLATING ACROSS NRN MEXICO
AND THE SRN PLAINS SAT NIGHT-SUN...POSSIBLY PHASING WITH NRN STREAM
ENERGY OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS SOLUTION WOULD LIFT THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF NWD LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
RAIN TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS SHEARS THE
ENERGY...KEEPING IT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...KEEPING THE LOCAL
AREA DRY. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD A WPC/ENSEMBLE APPROACH WHICH
KEEPS THE SRN STREAM WAVE FLAT AND THE LOCAL AREA DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND..WITH MODERATING TEMPS. HIGHS SAT FORECAST IN THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-MID 40S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS SUN IN THE
MID 50S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 40S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PASS OVER THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WITH A LIGHT NNE WIND DUE TO 1030MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER
PA. ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE ECG...WHICH WILL HAVE A PERIOD OF 5KFT
CIGS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF -RA IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY AFTER 21Z.
CIGS LOWER TO 4-5KFT THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH A LIGHT ESE WIND.
THERE IS AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
THE CHC OF RA INCREASES LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RA
OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING. A TRANSITION TO
A MIX AND EVENTUALLY SN SHOULD BEGIN AT SBY AFTER 06Z...WITH THE
TRANSITION OCCURRING AT RIC CLOSER TO 12Z. FARTHER SE...THE CHANGE
SHOULD OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY. ADDITIONALLY...A GUSTY NORTHERLY
WIND WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
1030MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE TODAY ALLOWING A
10-15KT NNE WIND TO BECOME SE AOB 10KT BY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH SHIFTS
FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.
DESPITE A STRONG LLJ IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO OBTAIN SCA CONDITIONS
GIVEN WAA OVER COLD WATER. GIVEN THIS...WIND/SEAS HAVE BEEN CAPPED
BELOW SCA CRITERIA. OVERALL...EXPECT A SSW WIND ~15KT FOR THE BAY
AND A 15-20KT FOR THE OCEAN ALONG WITH 3-4FT SEAS/2-3FT WAVES. A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NNW WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND SLOWLY
DROPS TO A POSITION NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. THE FRONT THEN BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. CAA COMMENCES THURSDAY AS
THE LOW PULLS OFFSHORE AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS 1040MB
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH A NORTHERLY WIND OF 20-25KT...AND 4-7FT
SEAS (HIGHEST S) AND 3-4FT WAVES IN THE BAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SLIDES OFFSHORE SATURDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031533
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1033 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATE THIS MORNG...HI PRES WAS CNTRD RIGHT ALONG THE CST. FLOW
ALOFT IS GENERALLY FM THE W...WELL OUT AHEAD OF BROAD TROF OVER
THE WRN CONUS. TEMPS WERE SLOWLY CLIMBING THRU THE 30S TO NEAR 40
DEGREES OVR THE AKQ CWA...WITH DWPTS RANGING FM THE MID TEENS TO
THE UPR 20S. RDR SHOWED ONLY VRY LGT MIXED PCPN OR RAIN OVR THE
MTNS OF WEST VA AND SW VA. CNTR OF HI PRES WILL PUSH OFFSHR THIS
AFTN...BUT LOW LEVEL CAD REMAINS OVER THE FA. A CLOUDY SKY WILL
LIMIT TEMP RISES THIS AFTN...WITH HIGHS ONLY RANGING FM THE MID
30S EXTRM NW TO THE MID 40S OVR NE NC. BETTER COVERAGE OF PCPN IS
EXPECTED MID/LATE AFTN...WITH BEST PCPN CHCS (50-60%) FOR MAINLY
LGT RAIN ACRS NRN AND WRN AREAS. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZRA OVR FAR NW AREAS BETWEEN 16-20Z
AS TEMPS STRUGGLE TO REACH/SURPASS 32F THRU EARLY THIS AFTN.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ATTM GIVEN MARGINAL TEMPS AND A WARM DAY
YESTERDAY. OTHERWISE...P-TYPE TO BE ALL RAIN OVR THE REGION THIS
AFTN/EVENG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM FRONT TO LIFT NE THROUGH THE FA TONIGHT. BEST MOISTURE AND
UVM ACRS CNTRL/NRN PORTIONS OF FA...THUS THE HIGHEST POPS...W/
WITH CHC POPS LIMITED TO SRN VA/NE NC. BULK OF THE RA LIFTS TO NRN
PORTION BY LT AT NGT. LO TEMPS LIKELY ARND 00Z/04 WITH RISING
TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPS BY 12Z/04 WED RISE INTO THE MID/UPR
40S TO MID 50S SE.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRONG SSW FLOW.
THERE RMN TIMING ISSUES W/ THE APPROACHING CDFNT FM THE NNW...HOWEVER
A GFS/ECMWF BLEND LOOKS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS
(40-70%) BY AFTN ACRS NRN TIER OF FA...W/ SLGT CHC TO CHC (20-40%)
TO THE S. FOR NOW...LEAVING OUT ANY MENTION OF T ACRS SRN VA/NE
NC...SINCE IT APRS MOST OF MOISTURE CONFINED TO W/ AND BEHIND THE
FNT. HI TEMPS FM THE U50S/L60S N TO L70S IN FAR SE VA/NE NC.

JUST ONE YEAR AGO...MARCH 2ND-3RD...WENT FM 60S TO L70S (THE 2ND)
TO A FEW INCHES OF SN (ON THE 3RD). THIS MAY OCCUR AGN THIS WK
(WED-THU).

FCST CHALLENGES CONT WED NGT THROUGH THU AS CDFNT SETTLES SSE
THROUGH THE FA...AND ANOTHER AREA OF ARCTIC SFC HI PRES BUILDS TWD
THE MS/OH VLYS. WILL LEAN TWD THE FASTER ARRIVAL OF COLDER SFC
AIR FM THE NNW (GFS/ECMWF) BY LT WED NGT AND CONTG ON THU. THE
MDLS EACH HINT AT WK SFC LO PRES TRACKING THROUGH NC AS S/W ALOFT
(IN FAST SWLY FLO) IS SHEARED AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE RGN. ALL
THIS LEADS TO A TRANSITION (WRT P-TYPE) LT WED/THU. RA...BECOMES
MIXED W/ IP-CHANGING TO SN/IP THEN ENDING AS SN FM NNW TO SE ACRS
THE FA (LASTLY ACRS NE NC BY MID OR LT AFTN THU). TIMING THOSE
TRANSITIONS AT THIS POINT VERY DIFFICULT...THOUGH CURRENTLY EXPECT
A LEAST LGT SN ACCUMS FOR AREAS N OF THE NC/VA BORDER BEFORE THE
DAY ENDS THU (T-2 INCHES S...1-4 INCHES N (HIGHEST PTNTTLY FM
RIC-SBY)). ALONG W/ THE TRANSITION TO WINTRY PCPN...GUSTY NNE WNDS
WILL BE PUSHING COLDER AIR INTO THE RGN. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM ARND
30F N TO THE LOW/MID 40S FAR S. TEMPS THU STEADY OR FALLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED IN WAKE OF THURS COLD FRONT...BUT
MODERATING TEMPS THRU THE WEEKEND WILL BRING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE THURS NIGHT WITH THE NRN PORTION OF THE
FRONT PUSHING WELL OFFSHORE. SRN PORTION PUSHES SWD OVER THE GULF
STATES/NRN GULF...STALLING IN WLY FLOW ALOFT. ENDED CHANCE POPS NEAR
THE COAST AT MIDNIGHT...WITH DRYING/CLEARING CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.
1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FRI...RESULTING
IN ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. H85
TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND -12C (-2 STD DEV)...WITH THICKNESSES
YIELDING TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI
NIGHT WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING MODERATE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.
TEMPS FORECAST IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS FRI NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. THEREAFTER...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE THANKS
TO DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW OVER THE WRN CONUS. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
AGAIN BE CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC FLOW (TROUGHING) OVER THE ERN
CONUS AND RIDGING (RETURN TO A +PNA) OVER THE WRN CONUS. MODELS
STRUGGLING WITH A NUMBER OF CANADIAN IMPULSES SET TO IMPACT THE NE
STATES...BUT ALSO SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE BAJA THIS WEEKEND.
ECMWF RATHER ROBUST WITH THIS ENERGY...TRANSLATING ACROSS NRN MEXICO
AND THE SRN PLAINS SAT NIGHT-SUN...POSSIBLY PHASING WITH NRN STREAM
ENERGY OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS SOLUTION WOULD LIFT THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF NWD LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
RAIN TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS SHEARS THE
ENERGY...KEEPING IT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...KEEPING THE LOCAL
AREA DRY. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD A WPC/ENSEMBLE APPROACH WHICH
KEEPS THE SRN STREAM WAVE FLAT AND THE LOCAL AREA DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND..WITH MODERATING TEMPS. HIGHS SAT FORECAST IN THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-MID 40S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS SUN IN THE
MID 50S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 40S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PASS OVER THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WITH A LIGHT NNE WIND DUE TO 1030MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER
PA. ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE ECG...WHICH WILL HAVE A PERIOD OF 5KFT
CIGS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF -RA IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY AFTER 21Z.
CIGS LOWER TO 4-5KFT THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH A LIGHT ESE WIND.
THERE IS AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
THE CHC OF RA INCREASES LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RA
OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING. A TRANSITION TO
A MIX AND EVENTUALLY SN SHOULD BEGIN AT SBY AFTER 06Z...WITH THE
TRANSITION OCCURRING AT RIC CLOSER TO 12Z. FARTHER SE...THE CHANGE
SHOULD OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY. ADDITIONALLY...A GUSTY NORTHERLY
WIND WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
1030MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE TODAY ALLOWING A
10-15KT NNE WIND TO BECOME SE AOB 10KT BY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH SHIFTS
FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.
DESPITE A STRONG LLJ IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO OBTAIN SCA CONDITIONS
GIVEN WAA OVER COLD WATER. GIVEN THIS...WIND/SEAS HAVE BEEN CAPPED
BELOW SCA CRITERIA. OVERALL...EXPECT A SSW WIND ~15KT FOR THE BAY
AND A 15-20KT FOR THE OCEAN ALONG WITH 3-4FT SEAS/2-3FT WAVES. A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NNW WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND SLOWLY
DROPS TO A POSITION NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. THE FRONT THEN BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. CAA COMMENCES THURSDAY AS
THE LOW PULLS OFFSHORE AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS 1040MB
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH A NORTHERLY WIND OF 20-25KT...AND 4-7FT
SEAS (HIGHEST S) AND 3-4FT WAVES IN THE BAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SLIDES OFFSHORE SATURDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031533
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1033 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATE THIS MORNG...HI PRES WAS CNTRD RIGHT ALONG THE CST. FLOW
ALOFT IS GENERALLY FM THE W...WELL OUT AHEAD OF BROAD TROF OVER
THE WRN CONUS. TEMPS WERE SLOWLY CLIMBING THRU THE 30S TO NEAR 40
DEGREES OVR THE AKQ CWA...WITH DWPTS RANGING FM THE MID TEENS TO
THE UPR 20S. RDR SHOWED ONLY VRY LGT MIXED PCPN OR RAIN OVR THE
MTNS OF WEST VA AND SW VA. CNTR OF HI PRES WILL PUSH OFFSHR THIS
AFTN...BUT LOW LEVEL CAD REMAINS OVER THE FA. A CLOUDY SKY WILL
LIMIT TEMP RISES THIS AFTN...WITH HIGHS ONLY RANGING FM THE MID
30S EXTRM NW TO THE MID 40S OVR NE NC. BETTER COVERAGE OF PCPN IS
EXPECTED MID/LATE AFTN...WITH BEST PCPN CHCS (50-60%) FOR MAINLY
LGT RAIN ACRS NRN AND WRN AREAS. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZRA OVR FAR NW AREAS BETWEEN 16-20Z
AS TEMPS STRUGGLE TO REACH/SURPASS 32F THRU EARLY THIS AFTN.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ATTM GIVEN MARGINAL TEMPS AND A WARM DAY
YESTERDAY. OTHERWISE...P-TYPE TO BE ALL RAIN OVR THE REGION THIS
AFTN/EVENG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM FRONT TO LIFT NE THROUGH THE FA TONIGHT. BEST MOISTURE AND
UVM ACRS CNTRL/NRN PORTIONS OF FA...THUS THE HIGHEST POPS...W/
WITH CHC POPS LIMITED TO SRN VA/NE NC. BULK OF THE RA LIFTS TO NRN
PORTION BY LT AT NGT. LO TEMPS LIKELY ARND 00Z/04 WITH RISING
TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPS BY 12Z/04 WED RISE INTO THE MID/UPR
40S TO MID 50S SE.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRONG SSW FLOW.
THERE RMN TIMING ISSUES W/ THE APPROACHING CDFNT FM THE NNW...HOWEVER
A GFS/ECMWF BLEND LOOKS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS
(40-70%) BY AFTN ACRS NRN TIER OF FA...W/ SLGT CHC TO CHC (20-40%)
TO THE S. FOR NOW...LEAVING OUT ANY MENTION OF T ACRS SRN VA/NE
NC...SINCE IT APRS MOST OF MOISTURE CONFINED TO W/ AND BEHIND THE
FNT. HI TEMPS FM THE U50S/L60S N TO L70S IN FAR SE VA/NE NC.

JUST ONE YEAR AGO...MARCH 2ND-3RD...WENT FM 60S TO L70S (THE 2ND)
TO A FEW INCHES OF SN (ON THE 3RD). THIS MAY OCCUR AGN THIS WK
(WED-THU).

FCST CHALLENGES CONT WED NGT THROUGH THU AS CDFNT SETTLES SSE
THROUGH THE FA...AND ANOTHER AREA OF ARCTIC SFC HI PRES BUILDS TWD
THE MS/OH VLYS. WILL LEAN TWD THE FASTER ARRIVAL OF COLDER SFC
AIR FM THE NNW (GFS/ECMWF) BY LT WED NGT AND CONTG ON THU. THE
MDLS EACH HINT AT WK SFC LO PRES TRACKING THROUGH NC AS S/W ALOFT
(IN FAST SWLY FLO) IS SHEARED AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE RGN. ALL
THIS LEADS TO A TRANSITION (WRT P-TYPE) LT WED/THU. RA...BECOMES
MIXED W/ IP-CHANGING TO SN/IP THEN ENDING AS SN FM NNW TO SE ACRS
THE FA (LASTLY ACRS NE NC BY MID OR LT AFTN THU). TIMING THOSE
TRANSITIONS AT THIS POINT VERY DIFFICULT...THOUGH CURRENTLY EXPECT
A LEAST LGT SN ACCUMS FOR AREAS N OF THE NC/VA BORDER BEFORE THE
DAY ENDS THU (T-2 INCHES S...1-4 INCHES N (HIGHEST PTNTTLY FM
RIC-SBY)). ALONG W/ THE TRANSITION TO WINTRY PCPN...GUSTY NNE WNDS
WILL BE PUSHING COLDER AIR INTO THE RGN. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM ARND
30F N TO THE LOW/MID 40S FAR S. TEMPS THU STEADY OR FALLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED IN WAKE OF THURS COLD FRONT...BUT
MODERATING TEMPS THRU THE WEEKEND WILL BRING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE THURS NIGHT WITH THE NRN PORTION OF THE
FRONT PUSHING WELL OFFSHORE. SRN PORTION PUSHES SWD OVER THE GULF
STATES/NRN GULF...STALLING IN WLY FLOW ALOFT. ENDED CHANCE POPS NEAR
THE COAST AT MIDNIGHT...WITH DRYING/CLEARING CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.
1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FRI...RESULTING
IN ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. H85
TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND -12C (-2 STD DEV)...WITH THICKNESSES
YIELDING TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI
NIGHT WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING MODERATE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.
TEMPS FORECAST IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS FRI NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. THEREAFTER...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE THANKS
TO DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW OVER THE WRN CONUS. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
AGAIN BE CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC FLOW (TROUGHING) OVER THE ERN
CONUS AND RIDGING (RETURN TO A +PNA) OVER THE WRN CONUS. MODELS
STRUGGLING WITH A NUMBER OF CANADIAN IMPULSES SET TO IMPACT THE NE
STATES...BUT ALSO SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE BAJA THIS WEEKEND.
ECMWF RATHER ROBUST WITH THIS ENERGY...TRANSLATING ACROSS NRN MEXICO
AND THE SRN PLAINS SAT NIGHT-SUN...POSSIBLY PHASING WITH NRN STREAM
ENERGY OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS SOLUTION WOULD LIFT THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF NWD LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
RAIN TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS SHEARS THE
ENERGY...KEEPING IT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...KEEPING THE LOCAL
AREA DRY. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD A WPC/ENSEMBLE APPROACH WHICH
KEEPS THE SRN STREAM WAVE FLAT AND THE LOCAL AREA DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND..WITH MODERATING TEMPS. HIGHS SAT FORECAST IN THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-MID 40S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS SUN IN THE
MID 50S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 40S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PASS OVER THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WITH A LIGHT NNE WIND DUE TO 1030MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER
PA. ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE ECG...WHICH WILL HAVE A PERIOD OF 5KFT
CIGS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF -RA IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY AFTER 21Z.
CIGS LOWER TO 4-5KFT THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH A LIGHT ESE WIND.
THERE IS AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
THE CHC OF RA INCREASES LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RA
OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING. A TRANSITION TO
A MIX AND EVENTUALLY SN SHOULD BEGIN AT SBY AFTER 06Z...WITH THE
TRANSITION OCCURRING AT RIC CLOSER TO 12Z. FARTHER SE...THE CHANGE
SHOULD OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY. ADDITIONALLY...A GUSTY NORTHERLY
WIND WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
1030MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE TODAY ALLOWING A
10-15KT NNE WIND TO BECOME SE AOB 10KT BY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH SHIFTS
FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.
DESPITE A STRONG LLJ IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO OBTAIN SCA CONDITIONS
GIVEN WAA OVER COLD WATER. GIVEN THIS...WIND/SEAS HAVE BEEN CAPPED
BELOW SCA CRITERIA. OVERALL...EXPECT A SSW WIND ~15KT FOR THE BAY
AND A 15-20KT FOR THE OCEAN ALONG WITH 3-4FT SEAS/2-3FT WAVES. A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NNW WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND SLOWLY
DROPS TO A POSITION NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. THE FRONT THEN BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. CAA COMMENCES THURSDAY AS
THE LOW PULLS OFFSHORE AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS 1040MB
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH A NORTHERLY WIND OF 20-25KT...AND 4-7FT
SEAS (HIGHEST S) AND 3-4FT WAVES IN THE BAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SLIDES OFFSHORE SATURDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ






000
FXUS61 KRNK 031510
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1010 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...THEN A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL TRACK INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA
AND WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. COLDER
AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM EST TUESDAY...

CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAINLY WEST OF I77 WHERE
TEMPERATURES WERE ABOVE FREEZING MARK AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN AS
SUCH...AND RADAR COVERAGE IS LIGHT. STILL CONCERN OVER DIABATIC
COOLING OF TEMPERATURES WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION...THUS WILL HOLD
WITH REST OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. MODIFIED POPS
WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDS. SHAPED MORNING TEMPERATURES WITH SFC OBS
AND LATEST MODEL TRENDS. MORE CHANGES LATER THIS MORNING IN THE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN .


AS OF 415 AM EST TUESDAY...

LOWER CLOUDS WERE JUST FILLING IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND THE TIMING SHOWN ON THE LAST FEW RUNS OF
THE HRRR AND THE LATEST WRF GUIDANCE. HAVE THEREFORE MADE ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE VALID TIME OF THE ADVISORIES. APPEARS A MORE ORGANIZED AREAS
OF PRECIPITATION WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA BETWEEN
8AM AND NOON. STILL EXPECTING A BETTER PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
ON THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE. OTHERWISE...NO WELL DEFINED
FEATURES THAT WILL DEFINE WHERE AND WHEN PRECIPITATION WILL FALL.

WHEREVER THE PRECIPITATION IS...IT WILL BE LIGHT. BUFKIT NOT
SHOWING GOOD DENDRITIC GROWTH AND BY 15Z/10AM...WARM NOSE WILL BE
WELL STRONG ENOUGH TO RESULT IN LIQUID AS THE HYDROMETEORS FALL
THROUGH THAT LAYER. SO SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE DECIDING
FACTOR IN PRECIPITATION TYPE. NEW RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE
ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS WERE BELOW FREEZING. ONLY A SLOW RISE IN
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY. GUIDANCE KEPT THE NORTHEAST
COUNTIES...MAINLY FROM LYNCHBURG INTO AMHERST AND ROCKBRIDGE
COUNTY BELOW FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. HAVE DELAYED THE START
OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND EXTENDED THE ADVISORY THROUGH
LATER IN THE DAY WHERE THE TEMPERATURE REMAINS BELOW FREEZING.

TONIGHT...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PUSHES UP TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS. LOWS WILL OCCUR IN THE EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND THE PROBABILITY OF MODERATE RAIN IN THE
NORTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA INCREASES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EST TUESDAY...

EXPECT TO START WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT SITUATED FROM THE
ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE. STRONG MOISTURE
FLOW INTO THE AREA ON A 50KT TO 60KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET
WILL PUSH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO 1.0-1.1 INCHES IN THE
WEST...AND AS HIGH AS 1.4 INCHES FURTHER EAST...ALL SIGNIFICANTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH.

DURING THE MORNING...RAIN WILL BE WIDESPREAD WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST LIFT/HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
BE WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...JUST SKIRTING OUR SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA COUNTIES...PARTICULARLY THE WEST FACING SLOPES. FURTHER
EAST...WILL LIKELY SEE A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SOME DRYING TAKING
PLACE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AS WINDS SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY AND
DOWNSLOPE.

DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE COLD FRONT WILL
SLOW/STALL ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE AND NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT AS A
STRONG WAVE DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN GEORGIA AND PUSHES NORTHEAST
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE WAVE WILL PASS JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY...WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE
DEVELOPING FROM THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE...SUPPORTING AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN.

AS THE WAVE PASSES OUR AREA DURING LATE THURSDAY MORNING...IT WILL
ENHANCE THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...DRAWING COLD
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FURTHER ACROSS OUR AREA.
THE SURGE OF COLDER AIR HUGGING THE SURFACE WILL CAUSE RAIN TO
CHANGE TO SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...BEFORE FINALLY CHANGING TO SNOW BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
BECAUSE WE ARE EXPECTING MORE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...WENT WITH LOWER SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR THURSDAY.
RIGHT NOW...LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTER STORM SNOW AND
SLEET AMOUNTS FOR WESTERN GREENBRIER...AND PERHAPS BATH AND
ROCKBRIDGE COUNTIES IN SPOTS...BUT DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
GO WITH A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS POINT. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT
HAVE ANOTHER LOOK AT THE COMING 03/12Z MODEL RUNS.

PRECIPITATION WILL WIND DOWN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...SETTLING ACROSS THE MID AND UPPER
OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
MEAN ONE MORE SHOT OF SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES TO START THE DAY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH TEENS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND...WHERE IT WILL THEN WEDGE
SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT...HUGGING THE EASTERN FACE OF THE
APPALACHIANS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EST MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST...AND MAKE ITS WAY TO THE COAST BY SATURDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A TREND TOWARD MILDER CONDITIONS AS THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA BECOMES GRADUALLY MORE SW-W...WHILE A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND RISING 850 TEMPS TAKE PLACE.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY A GENEROUS AMOUNT OF VARIATIONS IN THE MODELS
TAKE PLACE. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM EVENTUALLY COME INTO
AGREEMENT OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF CONUS BY
MONDAY OR TUESDAY OR NEXT WEEK...HOW THE SOLUTIONS COME TO BE THAT
WAY HAVE NOTABLE DIFFERENCES. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN
ESTABLISHING THE TROUGH IN THE EAST BY SUNDAY...AND ANY SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEMS EASILY BYPASS OUR REGION EXITING THE U.S. NEAR THE
GA/FL BORDER. THE ECWMF IS NOT A QUICK TO ESTABLISH AN EAST COAST
TROUGH...AND A SUCH...SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS HAVE A BETTER
OPPORTUNITY TO PROGRESS NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR REGION ON THE EAST
SIDE OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

OUR FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BE A CONSENSUS OF THESE
TWO...WITH IT RESEMBLING A WATERED DOWN VERSION OF THE ECWMF IN
TERMS OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
ALSO STAYING ON MORE OF THE MILD SIDE THAN COLD IN REGARDS TO
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM EST TUESDAY...

CEILINGS WERE LOWERING ACROSS THE REGION...DOWN TO MVFR THIS
MORNING AND IFR THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
ALOFT WILL BRING ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION TODAY. EXPECT
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN THROUGH NOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEARLY STEADY TODAY THEN RISE TONIGHT. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
AS TO WHEN THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN ENDS...ESPECIALLY AT KLYH
TODAY. BUFKIT AND MET TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE SUGGESTED THE THREAT OF
FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY CONTINUE AT KLYH UNTIL
21Z/4PM. MAINTAINED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE TAFS FOR TONIGHT.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE IFR TO LIFR FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA.

EXTENDED FORECAST...

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT ALL OF THE REGION
WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA BY WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH ABUNDANT RAIN. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. WINTER PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY BEHIND THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME THE MOST LIKELY
PRECIPITATION TYPES ARE SNOW AND SLEET.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR
WEATHER.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 300 PM EST MONDAY

LIKELY TO SEE SOME SUBSTANTIAL RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS IN
RESPONSE TO UPCOMING RAIN EVENT AND SNOWMELT IN THE
MOUNTAINS...QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT HOW SUBSTANTIAL. SIGNIFICANT SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE NOW CONFINED TO PARTS OF THE UPPER JAMES AND
GREENBRIER RIVER BASINS WHERE THE LATEST AVAILABLE ESTIMATES FROM
THE NATIONAL OPERATIONAL REMOTE SENSING CENTER SHOW ROUGHLY 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT WITH ISOLATED 4 INCHES IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE GREENBRIER. IN THE OTHER MAJOR RIVER
BASINS...NEW...ROANOKE/DAN AND TENNESSEE... MELTING OVER THE
WEEKEND AND TODAY HAS REDUCED THE SNOW TO LESS THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW
WATER AND IN MOST PLACES ZERO.

THE OTHER ELEMENT OF COURSE IS THE QPF. 12Z MODELS (INCLUDING
LATEST EC) HAVE NUDGED THE HEAVIEST QPF A LITTLE MORE TO THE
WEST...REDUCING AMOUNTS IN THE JAMES AND GREENBRIER SOME. IT STILL
APPEARS AS IF 1 TO 2 INCHES COULD FALL ACROSS THE WESTERN BASINS
BY 12Z THURSDAY AND COMBINED WITH SNOWMELT THIS COULD PRODUCE AT
LEAST MINOR RIVER FLOODING ALONG THE GREENBRIER AND POSSIBLY THE
UPPER JAMES. GUIDANCE RECEIVED FROM OHRFC THIS MORNING SUGGESTED
MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT ALDERSON WV ON THE GREENBRIER LIKELY BY EARLY
THURSDAY WITH THE COMBINED SNOWMELT AND QPF. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTIES WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ011-013-014-017>019-022-023-032>034-043-045.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ020-024-035-046-047.
NC...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ043-044-507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS
HYDROLOGY...PC




000
FXUS61 KRNK 031510
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1010 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...THEN A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL TRACK INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA
AND WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. COLDER
AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM EST TUESDAY...

CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAINLY WEST OF I77 WHERE
TEMPERATURES WERE ABOVE FREEZING MARK AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN AS
SUCH...AND RADAR COVERAGE IS LIGHT. STILL CONCERN OVER DIABATIC
COOLING OF TEMPERATURES WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION...THUS WILL HOLD
WITH REST OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. MODIFIED POPS
WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDS. SHAPED MORNING TEMPERATURES WITH SFC OBS
AND LATEST MODEL TRENDS. MORE CHANGES LATER THIS MORNING IN THE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN .


AS OF 415 AM EST TUESDAY...

LOWER CLOUDS WERE JUST FILLING IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND THE TIMING SHOWN ON THE LAST FEW RUNS OF
THE HRRR AND THE LATEST WRF GUIDANCE. HAVE THEREFORE MADE ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE VALID TIME OF THE ADVISORIES. APPEARS A MORE ORGANIZED AREAS
OF PRECIPITATION WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA BETWEEN
8AM AND NOON. STILL EXPECTING A BETTER PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
ON THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE. OTHERWISE...NO WELL DEFINED
FEATURES THAT WILL DEFINE WHERE AND WHEN PRECIPITATION WILL FALL.

WHEREVER THE PRECIPITATION IS...IT WILL BE LIGHT. BUFKIT NOT
SHOWING GOOD DENDRITIC GROWTH AND BY 15Z/10AM...WARM NOSE WILL BE
WELL STRONG ENOUGH TO RESULT IN LIQUID AS THE HYDROMETEORS FALL
THROUGH THAT LAYER. SO SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE DECIDING
FACTOR IN PRECIPITATION TYPE. NEW RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE
ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS WERE BELOW FREEZING. ONLY A SLOW RISE IN
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY. GUIDANCE KEPT THE NORTHEAST
COUNTIES...MAINLY FROM LYNCHBURG INTO AMHERST AND ROCKBRIDGE
COUNTY BELOW FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. HAVE DELAYED THE START
OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND EXTENDED THE ADVISORY THROUGH
LATER IN THE DAY WHERE THE TEMPERATURE REMAINS BELOW FREEZING.

TONIGHT...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PUSHES UP TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS. LOWS WILL OCCUR IN THE EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND THE PROBABILITY OF MODERATE RAIN IN THE
NORTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA INCREASES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EST TUESDAY...

EXPECT TO START WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT SITUATED FROM THE
ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE. STRONG MOISTURE
FLOW INTO THE AREA ON A 50KT TO 60KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET
WILL PUSH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO 1.0-1.1 INCHES IN THE
WEST...AND AS HIGH AS 1.4 INCHES FURTHER EAST...ALL SIGNIFICANTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH.

DURING THE MORNING...RAIN WILL BE WIDESPREAD WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST LIFT/HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
BE WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...JUST SKIRTING OUR SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA COUNTIES...PARTICULARLY THE WEST FACING SLOPES. FURTHER
EAST...WILL LIKELY SEE A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SOME DRYING TAKING
PLACE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AS WINDS SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY AND
DOWNSLOPE.

DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE COLD FRONT WILL
SLOW/STALL ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE AND NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT AS A
STRONG WAVE DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN GEORGIA AND PUSHES NORTHEAST
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE WAVE WILL PASS JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY...WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE
DEVELOPING FROM THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE...SUPPORTING AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN.

AS THE WAVE PASSES OUR AREA DURING LATE THURSDAY MORNING...IT WILL
ENHANCE THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...DRAWING COLD
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FURTHER ACROSS OUR AREA.
THE SURGE OF COLDER AIR HUGGING THE SURFACE WILL CAUSE RAIN TO
CHANGE TO SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...BEFORE FINALLY CHANGING TO SNOW BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
BECAUSE WE ARE EXPECTING MORE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...WENT WITH LOWER SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR THURSDAY.
RIGHT NOW...LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTER STORM SNOW AND
SLEET AMOUNTS FOR WESTERN GREENBRIER...AND PERHAPS BATH AND
ROCKBRIDGE COUNTIES IN SPOTS...BUT DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
GO WITH A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS POINT. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT
HAVE ANOTHER LOOK AT THE COMING 03/12Z MODEL RUNS.

PRECIPITATION WILL WIND DOWN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...SETTLING ACROSS THE MID AND UPPER
OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
MEAN ONE MORE SHOT OF SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES TO START THE DAY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH TEENS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND...WHERE IT WILL THEN WEDGE
SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT...HUGGING THE EASTERN FACE OF THE
APPALACHIANS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EST MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST...AND MAKE ITS WAY TO THE COAST BY SATURDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A TREND TOWARD MILDER CONDITIONS AS THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA BECOMES GRADUALLY MORE SW-W...WHILE A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND RISING 850 TEMPS TAKE PLACE.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY A GENEROUS AMOUNT OF VARIATIONS IN THE MODELS
TAKE PLACE. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM EVENTUALLY COME INTO
AGREEMENT OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF CONUS BY
MONDAY OR TUESDAY OR NEXT WEEK...HOW THE SOLUTIONS COME TO BE THAT
WAY HAVE NOTABLE DIFFERENCES. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN
ESTABLISHING THE TROUGH IN THE EAST BY SUNDAY...AND ANY SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEMS EASILY BYPASS OUR REGION EXITING THE U.S. NEAR THE
GA/FL BORDER. THE ECWMF IS NOT A QUICK TO ESTABLISH AN EAST COAST
TROUGH...AND A SUCH...SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS HAVE A BETTER
OPPORTUNITY TO PROGRESS NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR REGION ON THE EAST
SIDE OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

OUR FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BE A CONSENSUS OF THESE
TWO...WITH IT RESEMBLING A WATERED DOWN VERSION OF THE ECWMF IN
TERMS OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
ALSO STAYING ON MORE OF THE MILD SIDE THAN COLD IN REGARDS TO
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM EST TUESDAY...

CEILINGS WERE LOWERING ACROSS THE REGION...DOWN TO MVFR THIS
MORNING AND IFR THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
ALOFT WILL BRING ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION TODAY. EXPECT
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN THROUGH NOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEARLY STEADY TODAY THEN RISE TONIGHT. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
AS TO WHEN THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN ENDS...ESPECIALLY AT KLYH
TODAY. BUFKIT AND MET TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE SUGGESTED THE THREAT OF
FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY CONTINUE AT KLYH UNTIL
21Z/4PM. MAINTAINED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE TAFS FOR TONIGHT.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE IFR TO LIFR FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA.

EXTENDED FORECAST...

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT ALL OF THE REGION
WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA BY WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH ABUNDANT RAIN. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. WINTER PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY BEHIND THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME THE MOST LIKELY
PRECIPITATION TYPES ARE SNOW AND SLEET.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR
WEATHER.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 300 PM EST MONDAY

LIKELY TO SEE SOME SUBSTANTIAL RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS IN
RESPONSE TO UPCOMING RAIN EVENT AND SNOWMELT IN THE
MOUNTAINS...QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT HOW SUBSTANTIAL. SIGNIFICANT SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE NOW CONFINED TO PARTS OF THE UPPER JAMES AND
GREENBRIER RIVER BASINS WHERE THE LATEST AVAILABLE ESTIMATES FROM
THE NATIONAL OPERATIONAL REMOTE SENSING CENTER SHOW ROUGHLY 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT WITH ISOLATED 4 INCHES IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE GREENBRIER. IN THE OTHER MAJOR RIVER
BASINS...NEW...ROANOKE/DAN AND TENNESSEE... MELTING OVER THE
WEEKEND AND TODAY HAS REDUCED THE SNOW TO LESS THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW
WATER AND IN MOST PLACES ZERO.

THE OTHER ELEMENT OF COURSE IS THE QPF. 12Z MODELS (INCLUDING
LATEST EC) HAVE NUDGED THE HEAVIEST QPF A LITTLE MORE TO THE
WEST...REDUCING AMOUNTS IN THE JAMES AND GREENBRIER SOME. IT STILL
APPEARS AS IF 1 TO 2 INCHES COULD FALL ACROSS THE WESTERN BASINS
BY 12Z THURSDAY AND COMBINED WITH SNOWMELT THIS COULD PRODUCE AT
LEAST MINOR RIVER FLOODING ALONG THE GREENBRIER AND POSSIBLY THE
UPPER JAMES. GUIDANCE RECEIVED FROM OHRFC THIS MORNING SUGGESTED
MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT ALDERSON WV ON THE GREENBRIER LIKELY BY EARLY
THURSDAY WITH THE COMBINED SNOWMELT AND QPF. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTIES WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ011-013-014-017>019-022-023-032>034-043-045.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ020-024-035-046-047.
NC...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ043-044-507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS
HYDROLOGY...PC



000
FXUS61 KRNK 031510
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1010 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...THEN A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL TRACK INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA
AND WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. COLDER
AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM EST TUESDAY...

CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAINLY WEST OF I77 WHERE
TEMPERATURES WERE ABOVE FREEZING MARK AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN AS
SUCH...AND RADAR COVERAGE IS LIGHT. STILL CONCERN OVER DIABATIC
COOLING OF TEMPERATURES WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION...THUS WILL HOLD
WITH REST OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. MODIFIED POPS
WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDS. SHAPED MORNING TEMPERATURES WITH SFC OBS
AND LATEST MODEL TRENDS. MORE CHANGES LATER THIS MORNING IN THE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN .


AS OF 415 AM EST TUESDAY...

LOWER CLOUDS WERE JUST FILLING IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND THE TIMING SHOWN ON THE LAST FEW RUNS OF
THE HRRR AND THE LATEST WRF GUIDANCE. HAVE THEREFORE MADE ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE VALID TIME OF THE ADVISORIES. APPEARS A MORE ORGANIZED AREAS
OF PRECIPITATION WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA BETWEEN
8AM AND NOON. STILL EXPECTING A BETTER PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
ON THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE. OTHERWISE...NO WELL DEFINED
FEATURES THAT WILL DEFINE WHERE AND WHEN PRECIPITATION WILL FALL.

WHEREVER THE PRECIPITATION IS...IT WILL BE LIGHT. BUFKIT NOT
SHOWING GOOD DENDRITIC GROWTH AND BY 15Z/10AM...WARM NOSE WILL BE
WELL STRONG ENOUGH TO RESULT IN LIQUID AS THE HYDROMETEORS FALL
THROUGH THAT LAYER. SO SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE DECIDING
FACTOR IN PRECIPITATION TYPE. NEW RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE
ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS WERE BELOW FREEZING. ONLY A SLOW RISE IN
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY. GUIDANCE KEPT THE NORTHEAST
COUNTIES...MAINLY FROM LYNCHBURG INTO AMHERST AND ROCKBRIDGE
COUNTY BELOW FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. HAVE DELAYED THE START
OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND EXTENDED THE ADVISORY THROUGH
LATER IN THE DAY WHERE THE TEMPERATURE REMAINS BELOW FREEZING.

TONIGHT...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PUSHES UP TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS. LOWS WILL OCCUR IN THE EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND THE PROBABILITY OF MODERATE RAIN IN THE
NORTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA INCREASES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EST TUESDAY...

EXPECT TO START WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT SITUATED FROM THE
ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE. STRONG MOISTURE
FLOW INTO THE AREA ON A 50KT TO 60KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET
WILL PUSH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO 1.0-1.1 INCHES IN THE
WEST...AND AS HIGH AS 1.4 INCHES FURTHER EAST...ALL SIGNIFICANTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH.

DURING THE MORNING...RAIN WILL BE WIDESPREAD WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST LIFT/HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
BE WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...JUST SKIRTING OUR SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA COUNTIES...PARTICULARLY THE WEST FACING SLOPES. FURTHER
EAST...WILL LIKELY SEE A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SOME DRYING TAKING
PLACE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AS WINDS SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY AND
DOWNSLOPE.

DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE COLD FRONT WILL
SLOW/STALL ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE AND NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT AS A
STRONG WAVE DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN GEORGIA AND PUSHES NORTHEAST
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE WAVE WILL PASS JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY...WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE
DEVELOPING FROM THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE...SUPPORTING AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN.

AS THE WAVE PASSES OUR AREA DURING LATE THURSDAY MORNING...IT WILL
ENHANCE THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...DRAWING COLD
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FURTHER ACROSS OUR AREA.
THE SURGE OF COLDER AIR HUGGING THE SURFACE WILL CAUSE RAIN TO
CHANGE TO SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...BEFORE FINALLY CHANGING TO SNOW BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
BECAUSE WE ARE EXPECTING MORE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...WENT WITH LOWER SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR THURSDAY.
RIGHT NOW...LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTER STORM SNOW AND
SLEET AMOUNTS FOR WESTERN GREENBRIER...AND PERHAPS BATH AND
ROCKBRIDGE COUNTIES IN SPOTS...BUT DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
GO WITH A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS POINT. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT
HAVE ANOTHER LOOK AT THE COMING 03/12Z MODEL RUNS.

PRECIPITATION WILL WIND DOWN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...SETTLING ACROSS THE MID AND UPPER
OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
MEAN ONE MORE SHOT OF SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES TO START THE DAY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH TEENS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND...WHERE IT WILL THEN WEDGE
SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT...HUGGING THE EASTERN FACE OF THE
APPALACHIANS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EST MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST...AND MAKE ITS WAY TO THE COAST BY SATURDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A TREND TOWARD MILDER CONDITIONS AS THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA BECOMES GRADUALLY MORE SW-W...WHILE A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND RISING 850 TEMPS TAKE PLACE.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY A GENEROUS AMOUNT OF VARIATIONS IN THE MODELS
TAKE PLACE. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM EVENTUALLY COME INTO
AGREEMENT OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF CONUS BY
MONDAY OR TUESDAY OR NEXT WEEK...HOW THE SOLUTIONS COME TO BE THAT
WAY HAVE NOTABLE DIFFERENCES. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN
ESTABLISHING THE TROUGH IN THE EAST BY SUNDAY...AND ANY SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEMS EASILY BYPASS OUR REGION EXITING THE U.S. NEAR THE
GA/FL BORDER. THE ECWMF IS NOT A QUICK TO ESTABLISH AN EAST COAST
TROUGH...AND A SUCH...SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS HAVE A BETTER
OPPORTUNITY TO PROGRESS NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR REGION ON THE EAST
SIDE OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

OUR FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BE A CONSENSUS OF THESE
TWO...WITH IT RESEMBLING A WATERED DOWN VERSION OF THE ECWMF IN
TERMS OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
ALSO STAYING ON MORE OF THE MILD SIDE THAN COLD IN REGARDS TO
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM EST TUESDAY...

CEILINGS WERE LOWERING ACROSS THE REGION...DOWN TO MVFR THIS
MORNING AND IFR THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
ALOFT WILL BRING ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION TODAY. EXPECT
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN THROUGH NOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEARLY STEADY TODAY THEN RISE TONIGHT. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
AS TO WHEN THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN ENDS...ESPECIALLY AT KLYH
TODAY. BUFKIT AND MET TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE SUGGESTED THE THREAT OF
FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY CONTINUE AT KLYH UNTIL
21Z/4PM. MAINTAINED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE TAFS FOR TONIGHT.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE IFR TO LIFR FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA.

EXTENDED FORECAST...

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT ALL OF THE REGION
WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA BY WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH ABUNDANT RAIN. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. WINTER PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY BEHIND THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME THE MOST LIKELY
PRECIPITATION TYPES ARE SNOW AND SLEET.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR
WEATHER.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 300 PM EST MONDAY

LIKELY TO SEE SOME SUBSTANTIAL RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS IN
RESPONSE TO UPCOMING RAIN EVENT AND SNOWMELT IN THE
MOUNTAINS...QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT HOW SUBSTANTIAL. SIGNIFICANT SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE NOW CONFINED TO PARTS OF THE UPPER JAMES AND
GREENBRIER RIVER BASINS WHERE THE LATEST AVAILABLE ESTIMATES FROM
THE NATIONAL OPERATIONAL REMOTE SENSING CENTER SHOW ROUGHLY 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT WITH ISOLATED 4 INCHES IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE GREENBRIER. IN THE OTHER MAJOR RIVER
BASINS...NEW...ROANOKE/DAN AND TENNESSEE... MELTING OVER THE
WEEKEND AND TODAY HAS REDUCED THE SNOW TO LESS THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW
WATER AND IN MOST PLACES ZERO.

THE OTHER ELEMENT OF COURSE IS THE QPF. 12Z MODELS (INCLUDING
LATEST EC) HAVE NUDGED THE HEAVIEST QPF A LITTLE MORE TO THE
WEST...REDUCING AMOUNTS IN THE JAMES AND GREENBRIER SOME. IT STILL
APPEARS AS IF 1 TO 2 INCHES COULD FALL ACROSS THE WESTERN BASINS
BY 12Z THURSDAY AND COMBINED WITH SNOWMELT THIS COULD PRODUCE AT
LEAST MINOR RIVER FLOODING ALONG THE GREENBRIER AND POSSIBLY THE
UPPER JAMES. GUIDANCE RECEIVED FROM OHRFC THIS MORNING SUGGESTED
MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT ALDERSON WV ON THE GREENBRIER LIKELY BY EARLY
THURSDAY WITH THE COMBINED SNOWMELT AND QPF. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTIES WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ011-013-014-017>019-022-023-032>034-043-045.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ020-024-035-046-047.
NC...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ043-044-507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS
HYDROLOGY...PC




000
FXUS61 KRNK 031510
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1010 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...THEN A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL TRACK INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA
AND WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. COLDER
AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM EST TUESDAY...

CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAINLY WEST OF I77 WHERE
TEMPERATURES WERE ABOVE FREEZING MARK AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN AS
SUCH...AND RADAR COVERAGE IS LIGHT. STILL CONCERN OVER DIABATIC
COOLING OF TEMPERATURES WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION...THUS WILL HOLD
WITH REST OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. MODIFIED POPS
WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDS. SHAPED MORNING TEMPERATURES WITH SFC OBS
AND LATEST MODEL TRENDS. MORE CHANGES LATER THIS MORNING IN THE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN .


AS OF 415 AM EST TUESDAY...

LOWER CLOUDS WERE JUST FILLING IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND THE TIMING SHOWN ON THE LAST FEW RUNS OF
THE HRRR AND THE LATEST WRF GUIDANCE. HAVE THEREFORE MADE ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE VALID TIME OF THE ADVISORIES. APPEARS A MORE ORGANIZED AREAS
OF PRECIPITATION WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA BETWEEN
8AM AND NOON. STILL EXPECTING A BETTER PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
ON THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE. OTHERWISE...NO WELL DEFINED
FEATURES THAT WILL DEFINE WHERE AND WHEN PRECIPITATION WILL FALL.

WHEREVER THE PRECIPITATION IS...IT WILL BE LIGHT. BUFKIT NOT
SHOWING GOOD DENDRITIC GROWTH AND BY 15Z/10AM...WARM NOSE WILL BE
WELL STRONG ENOUGH TO RESULT IN LIQUID AS THE HYDROMETEORS FALL
THROUGH THAT LAYER. SO SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE DECIDING
FACTOR IN PRECIPITATION TYPE. NEW RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE
ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS WERE BELOW FREEZING. ONLY A SLOW RISE IN
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY. GUIDANCE KEPT THE NORTHEAST
COUNTIES...MAINLY FROM LYNCHBURG INTO AMHERST AND ROCKBRIDGE
COUNTY BELOW FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. HAVE DELAYED THE START
OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND EXTENDED THE ADVISORY THROUGH
LATER IN THE DAY WHERE THE TEMPERATURE REMAINS BELOW FREEZING.

TONIGHT...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PUSHES UP TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS. LOWS WILL OCCUR IN THE EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND THE PROBABILITY OF MODERATE RAIN IN THE
NORTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA INCREASES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EST TUESDAY...

EXPECT TO START WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT SITUATED FROM THE
ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE. STRONG MOISTURE
FLOW INTO THE AREA ON A 50KT TO 60KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET
WILL PUSH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO 1.0-1.1 INCHES IN THE
WEST...AND AS HIGH AS 1.4 INCHES FURTHER EAST...ALL SIGNIFICANTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH.

DURING THE MORNING...RAIN WILL BE WIDESPREAD WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST LIFT/HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
BE WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...JUST SKIRTING OUR SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA COUNTIES...PARTICULARLY THE WEST FACING SLOPES. FURTHER
EAST...WILL LIKELY SEE A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SOME DRYING TAKING
PLACE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AS WINDS SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY AND
DOWNSLOPE.

DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE COLD FRONT WILL
SLOW/STALL ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE AND NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT AS A
STRONG WAVE DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN GEORGIA AND PUSHES NORTHEAST
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE WAVE WILL PASS JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY...WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE
DEVELOPING FROM THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE...SUPPORTING AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN.

AS THE WAVE PASSES OUR AREA DURING LATE THURSDAY MORNING...IT WILL
ENHANCE THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...DRAWING COLD
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FURTHER ACROSS OUR AREA.
THE SURGE OF COLDER AIR HUGGING THE SURFACE WILL CAUSE RAIN TO
CHANGE TO SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...BEFORE FINALLY CHANGING TO SNOW BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
BECAUSE WE ARE EXPECTING MORE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...WENT WITH LOWER SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR THURSDAY.
RIGHT NOW...LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTER STORM SNOW AND
SLEET AMOUNTS FOR WESTERN GREENBRIER...AND PERHAPS BATH AND
ROCKBRIDGE COUNTIES IN SPOTS...BUT DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
GO WITH A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS POINT. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT
HAVE ANOTHER LOOK AT THE COMING 03/12Z MODEL RUNS.

PRECIPITATION WILL WIND DOWN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...SETTLING ACROSS THE MID AND UPPER
OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
MEAN ONE MORE SHOT OF SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES TO START THE DAY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH TEENS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND...WHERE IT WILL THEN WEDGE
SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT...HUGGING THE EASTERN FACE OF THE
APPALACHIANS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EST MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST...AND MAKE ITS WAY TO THE COAST BY SATURDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A TREND TOWARD MILDER CONDITIONS AS THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA BECOMES GRADUALLY MORE SW-W...WHILE A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND RISING 850 TEMPS TAKE PLACE.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY A GENEROUS AMOUNT OF VARIATIONS IN THE MODELS
TAKE PLACE. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM EVENTUALLY COME INTO
AGREEMENT OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF CONUS BY
MONDAY OR TUESDAY OR NEXT WEEK...HOW THE SOLUTIONS COME TO BE THAT
WAY HAVE NOTABLE DIFFERENCES. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN
ESTABLISHING THE TROUGH IN THE EAST BY SUNDAY...AND ANY SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEMS EASILY BYPASS OUR REGION EXITING THE U.S. NEAR THE
GA/FL BORDER. THE ECWMF IS NOT A QUICK TO ESTABLISH AN EAST COAST
TROUGH...AND A SUCH...SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS HAVE A BETTER
OPPORTUNITY TO PROGRESS NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR REGION ON THE EAST
SIDE OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

OUR FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BE A CONSENSUS OF THESE
TWO...WITH IT RESEMBLING A WATERED DOWN VERSION OF THE ECWMF IN
TERMS OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
ALSO STAYING ON MORE OF THE MILD SIDE THAN COLD IN REGARDS TO
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM EST TUESDAY...

CEILINGS WERE LOWERING ACROSS THE REGION...DOWN TO MVFR THIS
MORNING AND IFR THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
ALOFT WILL BRING ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION TODAY. EXPECT
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN THROUGH NOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEARLY STEADY TODAY THEN RISE TONIGHT. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
AS TO WHEN THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN ENDS...ESPECIALLY AT KLYH
TODAY. BUFKIT AND MET TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE SUGGESTED THE THREAT OF
FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY CONTINUE AT KLYH UNTIL
21Z/4PM. MAINTAINED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE TAFS FOR TONIGHT.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE IFR TO LIFR FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA.

EXTENDED FORECAST...

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT ALL OF THE REGION
WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA BY WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH ABUNDANT RAIN. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. WINTER PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY BEHIND THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME THE MOST LIKELY
PRECIPITATION TYPES ARE SNOW AND SLEET.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR
WEATHER.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 300 PM EST MONDAY

LIKELY TO SEE SOME SUBSTANTIAL RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS IN
RESPONSE TO UPCOMING RAIN EVENT AND SNOWMELT IN THE
MOUNTAINS...QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT HOW SUBSTANTIAL. SIGNIFICANT SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE NOW CONFINED TO PARTS OF THE UPPER JAMES AND
GREENBRIER RIVER BASINS WHERE THE LATEST AVAILABLE ESTIMATES FROM
THE NATIONAL OPERATIONAL REMOTE SENSING CENTER SHOW ROUGHLY 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT WITH ISOLATED 4 INCHES IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE GREENBRIER. IN THE OTHER MAJOR RIVER
BASINS...NEW...ROANOKE/DAN AND TENNESSEE... MELTING OVER THE
WEEKEND AND TODAY HAS REDUCED THE SNOW TO LESS THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW
WATER AND IN MOST PLACES ZERO.

THE OTHER ELEMENT OF COURSE IS THE QPF. 12Z MODELS (INCLUDING
LATEST EC) HAVE NUDGED THE HEAVIEST QPF A LITTLE MORE TO THE
WEST...REDUCING AMOUNTS IN THE JAMES AND GREENBRIER SOME. IT STILL
APPEARS AS IF 1 TO 2 INCHES COULD FALL ACROSS THE WESTERN BASINS
BY 12Z THURSDAY AND COMBINED WITH SNOWMELT THIS COULD PRODUCE AT
LEAST MINOR RIVER FLOODING ALONG THE GREENBRIER AND POSSIBLY THE
UPPER JAMES. GUIDANCE RECEIVED FROM OHRFC THIS MORNING SUGGESTED
MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT ALDERSON WV ON THE GREENBRIER LIKELY BY EARLY
THURSDAY WITH THE COMBINED SNOWMELT AND QPF. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTIES WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ011-013-014-017>019-022-023-032>034-043-045.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ020-024-035-046-047.
NC...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ043-044-507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS
HYDROLOGY...PC



000
FXUS61 KRNK 031204
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
704 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...THEN A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL TRACK INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA
AND WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. COLDER
AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EST TUESDAY...

LOWER CLOUDS WERE JUST FILLING IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND THE TIMING SHOWN ON THE LAST FEW RUNS OF
THE HRRR AND THE LATEST WRF GUIDANCE. HAVE THEREFORE MADE ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE VALID TIME OF THE ADVISORIES. APPEARS A MORE ORGANIZED AREAS
OF PRECIPITATION WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA BETWEEN
8AM AND NOON. STILL EXPECTING A BETTER PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
ON THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE. OTHERWISE...NO WELL DEFINED
FEATURES THAT WILL DEFINE WHERE AND WHEN PRECIPITATION WILL FALL.

WHEREVER THE PRECIPITATION IS...IT WILL BE LIGHT. BUFKIT NOT
SHOWING GOOD DENDRITIC GROWTH AND BY 15Z/10AM...WARM NOSE WILL BE
WELL STRONG ENOUGH TO RESULT IN LIQUID AS THE HYDROMETEORS FALL
THROUGH THAT LAYER. SO SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE DECIDING
FACTOR IN PRECIPITATION TYPE. NEW RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE
ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS WERE BELOW FREEZING. ONLY A SLOW RISE IN
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY. GUIDANCE KEPT THE NORTHEAST
COUNTIES...MAINLY FROM LYNCHBURG INTO AMHERST AND ROCKBRIDGE
COUNTY BELOW FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. HAVE DELAYED THE START
OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND EXTENDED THE ADVISORY THROUGH
LATER IN THE DAY WHERE THE TEMPERATURE REMAINS BELOW FREEZING.

TONIGHT...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PUSHES UP TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS. LOWS WILL OCCUR IN THE EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND THE PROBABILITY OF MODERATE RAIN IN THE
NORTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA INCREASES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EST TUESDAY...

EXPECT TO START WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT SITUATED FROM THE
ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE. STRONG MOISTURE
FLOW INTO THE AREA ON A 50KT TO 60KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET
WILL PUSH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO 1.0-1.1 INCHES IN THE
WEST...AND AS HIGH AS 1.4 INCHES FURTHER EAST...ALL SIGNIFICANTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH.

DURING THE MORNING...RAIN WILL BE WIDESPREAD WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST LIFT/HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
BE WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...JUST SKIRTING OUR SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA COUNTIES...PARTICULARLY THE WEST FACING SLOPES. FURTHER
EAST...WILL LIKELY SEE A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SOME DRYING TAKING
PLACE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AS WINDS SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY AND
DOWNSLOPE.

DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE COLD FRONT WILL
SLOW/STALL ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE AND NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT AS A
STRONG WAVE DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN GEORGIA AND PUSHES NORTHEAST
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE WAVE WILL PASS JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY...WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE
DEVELOPING FROM THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE...SUPPORTING AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN.

AS THE WAVE PASSES OUR AREA DURING LATE THURSDAY MORNING...IT WILL
ENHANCE THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...DRAWING COLD
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FURTHER ACROSS OUR AREA.
THE SURGE OF COLDER AIR HUGGING THE SURFACE WILL CAUSE RAIN TO
CHANGE TO SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...BEFORE FINALLY CHANGING TO SNOW BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
BECAUSE WE ARE EXPECTING MORE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...WENT WITH LOWER SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR THURSDAY.
RIGHT NOW...LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTER STORM SNOW AND
SLEET AMOUNTS FOR WESTERN GREENBRIER...AND PERHAPS BATH AND
ROCKBRIDGE COUNTIES IN SPOTS...BUT DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
GO WITH A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS POINT. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT
HAVE ANOTHER LOOK AT THE COMING 03/12Z MODEL RUNS.

PRECIPITATION WILL WIND DOWN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...SETTLING ACROSS THE MID AND UPPER
OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
MEAN ONE MORE SHOT OF SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES TO START THE DAY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH TEENS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND...WHERE IT WILL THEN WEDGE
SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT...HUGGING THE EASTERN FACE OF THE
APPALACHIANS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EST MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST...AND MAKE ITS WAY TO THE COAST BY SATURDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A TREND TOWARD MILDER CONDITIONS AS THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA BECOMES GRADUALLY MORE SW-W...WHILE A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND RISING 850 TEMPS TAKE PLACE.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY A GENEROUS AMOUNT OF VARIATIONS IN THE MODELS
TAKE PLACE. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM EVENTUALLY COME INTO
AGREEMENT OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF CONUS BY
MONDAY OR TUESDAY OR NEXT WEEK...HOW THE SOLUTIONS COME TO BE THAT
WAY HAVE NOTABLE DIFFERENCES. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN
ESTABLISHING THE TROUGH IN THE EAST BY SUNDAY...AND ANY SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEMS EASILY BYPASS OUR REGION EXITING THE U.S. NEAR THE
GA/FL BORDER. THE ECWMF IS NOT A QUICK TO ESTABLISH AN EAST COAST
TROUGH...AND A SUCH...SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS HAVE A BETTER
OPPORTUNITY TO PROGRESS NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR REGION ON THE EAST
SIDE OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

OUR FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BE A CONSENSUS OF THESE
TWO...WITH IT RESEMBLING A WATERED DOWN VERSION OF THE ECWMF IN
TERMS OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
ALSO STAYING ON MORE OF THE MILD SIDE THAN COLD IN REGARDS TO
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM EST TUESDAY...

CEILINGS WERE LOWERING ACROSS THE REGION...DOWN TO MVFR THIS
MORNING AND IFR THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
ALOFT WILL BRING ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION TODAY. EXPECT
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN THROUGH NOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEARLY STEADY TODAY THEN RISE TONIGHT. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
AS TO WHEN THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN ENDS...ESPECIALLY AT KLYH
TODAY. BUFKIT AND MET TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE SUGGESTED THE THREAT OF
FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY CONTINUE AT KLYH UNTIL
21Z/4PM. MAINTAINED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE TAFS FOR TONIGHT.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE IFR TO LIFR FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA.

EXTENDED FORECAST...

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT ALL OF THE REGION
WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA BY WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH ABUNDANT RAIN. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. WINTER PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY BEHIND THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME THE MOST LIKELY
PRECIPITATION TYPES ARE SNOW AND SLEET.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR
WEATHER.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 300 PM EST MONDAY

LIKELY TO SEE SOME SUBSTANTIAL RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS IN
RESPONSE TO UPCOMING RAIN EVENT AND SNOWMELT IN THE
MOUNTAINS...QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT HOW SUBSTANTIAL. SIGNIFICANT SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE NOW CONFINED TO PARTS OF THE UPPER JAMES AND
GREENBRIER RIVER BASINS WHERE THE LATEST AVAILABLE ESTIMATES FROM
THE NATIONAL OPERATIONAL REMOTE SENSING CENTER SHOW ROUGHLY 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT WITH ISOLATED 4 INCHES IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE GREENBRIER. IN THE OTHER MAJOR RIVER
BASINS...NEW...ROANOKE/DAN AND TENNESSEE... MELTING OVER THE
WEEKEND AND TODAY HAS REDUCED THE SNOW TO LESS THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW
WATER AND IN MOST PLACES ZERO.

THE OTHER ELEMENT OF COURSE IS THE QPF. 12Z MODELS (INCLUDING
LATEST EC) HAVE NUDGED THE HEAVIEST QPF A LITTLE MORE TO THE
WEST...REDUCING AMOUNTS IN THE JAMES AND GREENBRIER SOME. IT STILL
APPEARS AS IF 1 TO 2 INCHES COULD FALL ACROSS THE WESTERN BASINS
BY 12Z THURSDAY AND COMBINED WITH SNOWMELT THIS COULD PRODUCE AT
LEAST MINOR RIVER FLOODING ALONG THE GREENBRIER AND POSSIBLY THE
UPPER JAMES. GUIDANCE RECEIVED FROM OHRFC THIS MORNING SUGGESTED
MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT ALDERSON WV ON THE GREENBRIER LIKELY BY EARLY
THURSDAY WITH THE COMBINED SNOWMELT AND QPF. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTIES WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ011-013-014-017>019-022-023-032>034-043-045.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ007-009-010-012-015-016.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ020-024-035-046-047.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NCZ001-002-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ043-044-507-508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ042.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS
HYDROLOGY...PC



000
FXUS61 KRNK 031204
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
704 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...THEN A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL TRACK INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA
AND WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. COLDER
AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EST TUESDAY...

LOWER CLOUDS WERE JUST FILLING IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND THE TIMING SHOWN ON THE LAST FEW RUNS OF
THE HRRR AND THE LATEST WRF GUIDANCE. HAVE THEREFORE MADE ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE VALID TIME OF THE ADVISORIES. APPEARS A MORE ORGANIZED AREAS
OF PRECIPITATION WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA BETWEEN
8AM AND NOON. STILL EXPECTING A BETTER PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
ON THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE. OTHERWISE...NO WELL DEFINED
FEATURES THAT WILL DEFINE WHERE AND WHEN PRECIPITATION WILL FALL.

WHEREVER THE PRECIPITATION IS...IT WILL BE LIGHT. BUFKIT NOT
SHOWING GOOD DENDRITIC GROWTH AND BY 15Z/10AM...WARM NOSE WILL BE
WELL STRONG ENOUGH TO RESULT IN LIQUID AS THE HYDROMETEORS FALL
THROUGH THAT LAYER. SO SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE DECIDING
FACTOR IN PRECIPITATION TYPE. NEW RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE
ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS WERE BELOW FREEZING. ONLY A SLOW RISE IN
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY. GUIDANCE KEPT THE NORTHEAST
COUNTIES...MAINLY FROM LYNCHBURG INTO AMHERST AND ROCKBRIDGE
COUNTY BELOW FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. HAVE DELAYED THE START
OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND EXTENDED THE ADVISORY THROUGH
LATER IN THE DAY WHERE THE TEMPERATURE REMAINS BELOW FREEZING.

TONIGHT...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PUSHES UP TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS. LOWS WILL OCCUR IN THE EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND THE PROBABILITY OF MODERATE RAIN IN THE
NORTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA INCREASES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EST TUESDAY...

EXPECT TO START WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT SITUATED FROM THE
ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE. STRONG MOISTURE
FLOW INTO THE AREA ON A 50KT TO 60KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET
WILL PUSH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO 1.0-1.1 INCHES IN THE
WEST...AND AS HIGH AS 1.4 INCHES FURTHER EAST...ALL SIGNIFICANTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH.

DURING THE MORNING...RAIN WILL BE WIDESPREAD WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST LIFT/HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
BE WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...JUST SKIRTING OUR SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA COUNTIES...PARTICULARLY THE WEST FACING SLOPES. FURTHER
EAST...WILL LIKELY SEE A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SOME DRYING TAKING
PLACE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AS WINDS SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY AND
DOWNSLOPE.

DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE COLD FRONT WILL
SLOW/STALL ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE AND NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT AS A
STRONG WAVE DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN GEORGIA AND PUSHES NORTHEAST
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE WAVE WILL PASS JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY...WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE
DEVELOPING FROM THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE...SUPPORTING AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN.

AS THE WAVE PASSES OUR AREA DURING LATE THURSDAY MORNING...IT WILL
ENHANCE THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...DRAWING COLD
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FURTHER ACROSS OUR AREA.
THE SURGE OF COLDER AIR HUGGING THE SURFACE WILL CAUSE RAIN TO
CHANGE TO SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...BEFORE FINALLY CHANGING TO SNOW BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
BECAUSE WE ARE EXPECTING MORE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...WENT WITH LOWER SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR THURSDAY.
RIGHT NOW...LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTER STORM SNOW AND
SLEET AMOUNTS FOR WESTERN GREENBRIER...AND PERHAPS BATH AND
ROCKBRIDGE COUNTIES IN SPOTS...BUT DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
GO WITH A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS POINT. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT
HAVE ANOTHER LOOK AT THE COMING 03/12Z MODEL RUNS.

PRECIPITATION WILL WIND DOWN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...SETTLING ACROSS THE MID AND UPPER
OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
MEAN ONE MORE SHOT OF SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES TO START THE DAY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH TEENS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND...WHERE IT WILL THEN WEDGE
SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT...HUGGING THE EASTERN FACE OF THE
APPALACHIANS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EST MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST...AND MAKE ITS WAY TO THE COAST BY SATURDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A TREND TOWARD MILDER CONDITIONS AS THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA BECOMES GRADUALLY MORE SW-W...WHILE A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND RISING 850 TEMPS TAKE PLACE.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY A GENEROUS AMOUNT OF VARIATIONS IN THE MODELS
TAKE PLACE. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM EVENTUALLY COME INTO
AGREEMENT OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF CONUS BY
MONDAY OR TUESDAY OR NEXT WEEK...HOW THE SOLUTIONS COME TO BE THAT
WAY HAVE NOTABLE DIFFERENCES. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN
ESTABLISHING THE TROUGH IN THE EAST BY SUNDAY...AND ANY SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEMS EASILY BYPASS OUR REGION EXITING THE U.S. NEAR THE
GA/FL BORDER. THE ECWMF IS NOT A QUICK TO ESTABLISH AN EAST COAST
TROUGH...AND A SUCH...SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS HAVE A BETTER
OPPORTUNITY TO PROGRESS NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR REGION ON THE EAST
SIDE OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

OUR FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BE A CONSENSUS OF THESE
TWO...WITH IT RESEMBLING A WATERED DOWN VERSION OF THE ECWMF IN
TERMS OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
ALSO STAYING ON MORE OF THE MILD SIDE THAN COLD IN REGARDS TO
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM EST TUESDAY...

CEILINGS WERE LOWERING ACROSS THE REGION...DOWN TO MVFR THIS
MORNING AND IFR THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
ALOFT WILL BRING ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION TODAY. EXPECT
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN THROUGH NOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEARLY STEADY TODAY THEN RISE TONIGHT. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
AS TO WHEN THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN ENDS...ESPECIALLY AT KLYH
TODAY. BUFKIT AND MET TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE SUGGESTED THE THREAT OF
FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY CONTINUE AT KLYH UNTIL
21Z/4PM. MAINTAINED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE TAFS FOR TONIGHT.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE IFR TO LIFR FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA.

EXTENDED FORECAST...

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT ALL OF THE REGION
WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA BY WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH ABUNDANT RAIN. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. WINTER PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY BEHIND THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME THE MOST LIKELY
PRECIPITATION TYPES ARE SNOW AND SLEET.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR
WEATHER.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 300 PM EST MONDAY

LIKELY TO SEE SOME SUBSTANTIAL RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS IN
RESPONSE TO UPCOMING RAIN EVENT AND SNOWMELT IN THE
MOUNTAINS...QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT HOW SUBSTANTIAL. SIGNIFICANT SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE NOW CONFINED TO PARTS OF THE UPPER JAMES AND
GREENBRIER RIVER BASINS WHERE THE LATEST AVAILABLE ESTIMATES FROM
THE NATIONAL OPERATIONAL REMOTE SENSING CENTER SHOW ROUGHLY 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT WITH ISOLATED 4 INCHES IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE GREENBRIER. IN THE OTHER MAJOR RIVER
BASINS...NEW...ROANOKE/DAN AND TENNESSEE... MELTING OVER THE
WEEKEND AND TODAY HAS REDUCED THE SNOW TO LESS THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW
WATER AND IN MOST PLACES ZERO.

THE OTHER ELEMENT OF COURSE IS THE QPF. 12Z MODELS (INCLUDING
LATEST EC) HAVE NUDGED THE HEAVIEST QPF A LITTLE MORE TO THE
WEST...REDUCING AMOUNTS IN THE JAMES AND GREENBRIER SOME. IT STILL
APPEARS AS IF 1 TO 2 INCHES COULD FALL ACROSS THE WESTERN BASINS
BY 12Z THURSDAY AND COMBINED WITH SNOWMELT THIS COULD PRODUCE AT
LEAST MINOR RIVER FLOODING ALONG THE GREENBRIER AND POSSIBLY THE
UPPER JAMES. GUIDANCE RECEIVED FROM OHRFC THIS MORNING SUGGESTED
MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT ALDERSON WV ON THE GREENBRIER LIKELY BY EARLY
THURSDAY WITH THE COMBINED SNOWMELT AND QPF. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTIES WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ011-013-014-017>019-022-023-032>034-043-045.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ007-009-010-012-015-016.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ020-024-035-046-047.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NCZ001-002-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ043-044-507-508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ042.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS
HYDROLOGY...PC




000
FXUS61 KRNK 031204
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
704 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...THEN A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL TRACK INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA
AND WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. COLDER
AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EST TUESDAY...

LOWER CLOUDS WERE JUST FILLING IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND THE TIMING SHOWN ON THE LAST FEW RUNS OF
THE HRRR AND THE LATEST WRF GUIDANCE. HAVE THEREFORE MADE ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE VALID TIME OF THE ADVISORIES. APPEARS A MORE ORGANIZED AREAS
OF PRECIPITATION WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA BETWEEN
8AM AND NOON. STILL EXPECTING A BETTER PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
ON THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE. OTHERWISE...NO WELL DEFINED
FEATURES THAT WILL DEFINE WHERE AND WHEN PRECIPITATION WILL FALL.

WHEREVER THE PRECIPITATION IS...IT WILL BE LIGHT. BUFKIT NOT
SHOWING GOOD DENDRITIC GROWTH AND BY 15Z/10AM...WARM NOSE WILL BE
WELL STRONG ENOUGH TO RESULT IN LIQUID AS THE HYDROMETEORS FALL
THROUGH THAT LAYER. SO SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE DECIDING
FACTOR IN PRECIPITATION TYPE. NEW RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE
ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS WERE BELOW FREEZING. ONLY A SLOW RISE IN
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY. GUIDANCE KEPT THE NORTHEAST
COUNTIES...MAINLY FROM LYNCHBURG INTO AMHERST AND ROCKBRIDGE
COUNTY BELOW FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. HAVE DELAYED THE START
OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND EXTENDED THE ADVISORY THROUGH
LATER IN THE DAY WHERE THE TEMPERATURE REMAINS BELOW FREEZING.

TONIGHT...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PUSHES UP TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS. LOWS WILL OCCUR IN THE EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND THE PROBABILITY OF MODERATE RAIN IN THE
NORTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA INCREASES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EST TUESDAY...

EXPECT TO START WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT SITUATED FROM THE
ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE. STRONG MOISTURE
FLOW INTO THE AREA ON A 50KT TO 60KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET
WILL PUSH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO 1.0-1.1 INCHES IN THE
WEST...AND AS HIGH AS 1.4 INCHES FURTHER EAST...ALL SIGNIFICANTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH.

DURING THE MORNING...RAIN WILL BE WIDESPREAD WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST LIFT/HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
BE WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...JUST SKIRTING OUR SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA COUNTIES...PARTICULARLY THE WEST FACING SLOPES. FURTHER
EAST...WILL LIKELY SEE A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SOME DRYING TAKING
PLACE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AS WINDS SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY AND
DOWNSLOPE.

DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE COLD FRONT WILL
SLOW/STALL ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE AND NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT AS A
STRONG WAVE DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN GEORGIA AND PUSHES NORTHEAST
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE WAVE WILL PASS JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY...WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE
DEVELOPING FROM THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE...SUPPORTING AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN.

AS THE WAVE PASSES OUR AREA DURING LATE THURSDAY MORNING...IT WILL
ENHANCE THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...DRAWING COLD
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FURTHER ACROSS OUR AREA.
THE SURGE OF COLDER AIR HUGGING THE SURFACE WILL CAUSE RAIN TO
CHANGE TO SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...BEFORE FINALLY CHANGING TO SNOW BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
BECAUSE WE ARE EXPECTING MORE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...WENT WITH LOWER SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR THURSDAY.
RIGHT NOW...LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTER STORM SNOW AND
SLEET AMOUNTS FOR WESTERN GREENBRIER...AND PERHAPS BATH AND
ROCKBRIDGE COUNTIES IN SPOTS...BUT DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
GO WITH A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS POINT. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT
HAVE ANOTHER LOOK AT THE COMING 03/12Z MODEL RUNS.

PRECIPITATION WILL WIND DOWN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...SETTLING ACROSS THE MID AND UPPER
OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
MEAN ONE MORE SHOT OF SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES TO START THE DAY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH TEENS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND...WHERE IT WILL THEN WEDGE
SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT...HUGGING THE EASTERN FACE OF THE
APPALACHIANS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EST MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST...AND MAKE ITS WAY TO THE COAST BY SATURDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A TREND TOWARD MILDER CONDITIONS AS THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA BECOMES GRADUALLY MORE SW-W...WHILE A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND RISING 850 TEMPS TAKE PLACE.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY A GENEROUS AMOUNT OF VARIATIONS IN THE MODELS
TAKE PLACE. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM EVENTUALLY COME INTO
AGREEMENT OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF CONUS BY
MONDAY OR TUESDAY OR NEXT WEEK...HOW THE SOLUTIONS COME TO BE THAT
WAY HAVE NOTABLE DIFFERENCES. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN
ESTABLISHING THE TROUGH IN THE EAST BY SUNDAY...AND ANY SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEMS EASILY BYPASS OUR REGION EXITING THE U.S. NEAR THE
GA/FL BORDER. THE ECWMF IS NOT A QUICK TO ESTABLISH AN EAST COAST
TROUGH...AND A SUCH...SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS HAVE A BETTER
OPPORTUNITY TO PROGRESS NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR REGION ON THE EAST
SIDE OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

OUR FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BE A CONSENSUS OF THESE
TWO...WITH IT RESEMBLING A WATERED DOWN VERSION OF THE ECWMF IN
TERMS OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
ALSO STAYING ON MORE OF THE MILD SIDE THAN COLD IN REGARDS TO
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM EST TUESDAY...

CEILINGS WERE LOWERING ACROSS THE REGION...DOWN TO MVFR THIS
MORNING AND IFR THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
ALOFT WILL BRING ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION TODAY. EXPECT
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN THROUGH NOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEARLY STEADY TODAY THEN RISE TONIGHT. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
AS TO WHEN THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN ENDS...ESPECIALLY AT KLYH
TODAY. BUFKIT AND MET TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE SUGGESTED THE THREAT OF
FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY CONTINUE AT KLYH UNTIL
21Z/4PM. MAINTAINED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE TAFS FOR TONIGHT.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE IFR TO LIFR FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA.

EXTENDED FORECAST...

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT ALL OF THE REGION
WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA BY WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH ABUNDANT RAIN. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. WINTER PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY BEHIND THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME THE MOST LIKELY
PRECIPITATION TYPES ARE SNOW AND SLEET.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR
WEATHER.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 300 PM EST MONDAY

LIKELY TO SEE SOME SUBSTANTIAL RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS IN
RESPONSE TO UPCOMING RAIN EVENT AND SNOWMELT IN THE
MOUNTAINS...QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT HOW SUBSTANTIAL. SIGNIFICANT SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE NOW CONFINED TO PARTS OF THE UPPER JAMES AND
GREENBRIER RIVER BASINS WHERE THE LATEST AVAILABLE ESTIMATES FROM
THE NATIONAL OPERATIONAL REMOTE SENSING CENTER SHOW ROUGHLY 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT WITH ISOLATED 4 INCHES IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE GREENBRIER. IN THE OTHER MAJOR RIVER
BASINS...NEW...ROANOKE/DAN AND TENNESSEE... MELTING OVER THE
WEEKEND AND TODAY HAS REDUCED THE SNOW TO LESS THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW
WATER AND IN MOST PLACES ZERO.

THE OTHER ELEMENT OF COURSE IS THE QPF. 12Z MODELS (INCLUDING
LATEST EC) HAVE NUDGED THE HEAVIEST QPF A LITTLE MORE TO THE
WEST...REDUCING AMOUNTS IN THE JAMES AND GREENBRIER SOME. IT STILL
APPEARS AS IF 1 TO 2 INCHES COULD FALL ACROSS THE WESTERN BASINS
BY 12Z THURSDAY AND COMBINED WITH SNOWMELT THIS COULD PRODUCE AT
LEAST MINOR RIVER FLOODING ALONG THE GREENBRIER AND POSSIBLY THE
UPPER JAMES. GUIDANCE RECEIVED FROM OHRFC THIS MORNING SUGGESTED
MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT ALDERSON WV ON THE GREENBRIER LIKELY BY EARLY
THURSDAY WITH THE COMBINED SNOWMELT AND QPF. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTIES WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ011-013-014-017>019-022-023-032>034-043-045.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ007-009-010-012-015-016.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ020-024-035-046-047.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NCZ001-002-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ043-044-507-508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ042.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS
HYDROLOGY...PC




000
FXUS61 KRNK 031031
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
531 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...THEN A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL TRACK INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA
AND WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. COLDER
AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EST TUESDAY...

LOWER CLOUDS WERE JUST FILLING IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND THE TIMING SHOWN ON THE LAST FEW RUNS OF
THE HRRR AND THE LATEST WRF GUIDANCE. HAVE THEREFORE MADE ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE VALID TIME OF THE ADVISORIES. APPEARS A MORE ORGANIZED AREAS
OF PRECIPITATION WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA BETWEEN
8AM AND NOON. STILL EXPECTING A BETTER PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
ON THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE. OTHERWISE...NO WELL DEFINED
FEATURES THAT WILL DEFINE WHERE AND WHEN PRECIPITATION WILL FALL.

WHEREVER THE PRECIPITATION IS...IT WILL BE LIGHT. BUFKIT NOT
SHOWING GOOD DENDRITIC GROWTH AND BY 15Z/10AM...WARM NOSE WILL BE
WELL STRONG ENOUGH TO RESULT IN LIQUID AS THE HYDROMETEORS FALL
THROUGH THAT LAYER. SO SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE DECIDING
FACTOR IN PRECIPITATION TYPE. NEW RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE
ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS WERE BELOW FREEZING. ONLY A SLOW RISE IN
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY. GUIDANCE KEPT THE NORTHEAST
COUNTIES...MAINLY FROM LYNCHBURG INTO AMHERST AND ROCKBRIDGE
COUNTY BELOW FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. HAVE DELAYED THE START
OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND EXTENDED THE ADVISORY THROUGH
LATER IN THE DAY WHERE THE TEMPERATURE REMAINS BELOW FREEZING.

TONIGHT...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PUSHES UP TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS. LOWS WILL OCCUR IN THE EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND THE PROBABILITY OF MODERATE RAIN IN THE
NORTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA INCREASES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EST TUESDAY...

EXPECT TO START WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT SITUATED FROM THE
ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE. STRONG MOISTURE
FLOW INTO THE AREA ON A 50KT TO 60KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET
WILL PUSH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO 1.0-1.1 INCHES IN THE
WEST...AND AS HIGH AS 1.4 INCHES FURTHER EAST...ALL SIGNIFICANTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH.

DURING THE MORNING...RAIN WILL BE WIDESPREAD WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST LIFT/HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
BE WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...JUST SKIRTING OUR SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA COUNTIES...PARTICULARLY THE WEST FACING SLOPES. FURTHER
EAST...WILL LIKELY SEE A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SOME DRYING TAKING
PLACE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AS WINDS SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY AND
DOWNSLOPE.

DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE COLD FRONT WILL
SLOW/STALL ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE AND NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT AS A
STRONG WAVE DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN GEORGIA AND PUSHES NORTHEAST
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE WAVE WILL PASS JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY...WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE
DEVELOPING FROM THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE...SUPPORTING AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN.

AS THE WAVE PASSES OUR AREA DURING LATE THURSDAY MORNING...IT WILL
ENHANCE THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...DRAWING COLD
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FURTHER ACROSS OUR AREA.
THE SURGE OF COLDER AIR HUGGING THE SURFACE WILL CAUSE RAIN TO
CHANGE TO SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...BEFORE FINALLY CHANGING TO SNOW BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
BECAUSE WE ARE EXPECTING MORE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...WENT WITH LOWER SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR THURSDAY.
RIGHT NOW...LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTER STORM SNOW AND
SLEET AMOUNTS FOR WESTERN GREENBRIER...AND PERHAPS BATH AND
ROCKBRIDGE COUNTIES IN SPOTS...BUT DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
GO WITH A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS POINT. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT
HAVE ANOTHER LOOK AT THE COMING 03/12Z MODEL RUNS.

PRECIPITATION WILL WIND DOWN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...SETTLING ACROSS THE MID AND UPPER
OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
MEAN ONE MORE SHOT OF SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES TO START THE DAY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH TEENS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND...WHERE IT WILL THEN WEDGE
SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT...HUGGING THE EASTERN FACE OF THE
APPALACHIANS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EST MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST...AND MAKE ITS WAY TO THE COAST BY SATURDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A TREND TOWARD MILDER CONDITIONS AS THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA BECOMES GRADUALLY MORE SW-W...WHILE A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND RISING 850 TEMPS TAKE PLACE.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY A GENEROUS AMOUNT OF VARIATIONS IN THE MODELS
TAKE PLACE. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM EVENTUALLY COME INTO
AGREEMENT OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF CONUS BY
MONDAY OR TUESDAY OR NEXT WEEK...HOW THE SOLUTIONS COME TO BE THAT
WAY HAVE NOTABLE DIFFERENCES. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN
ESTABLISHING THE TROUGH IN THE EAST BY SUNDAY...AND ANY SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEMS EASILY BYPASS OUR REGION EXITING THE U.S. NEAR THE
GA/FL BORDER. THE ECWMF IS NOT A QUICK TO ESTABLISH AN EAST COAST
TROUGH...AND A SUCH...SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS HAVE A BETTER
OPPORTUNITY TO PROGRESS NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR REGION ON THE EAST
SIDE OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

OUR FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BE A CONSENSUS OF THESE
TWO...WITH IT RESEMBLING A WATERED DOWN VERSION OF THE ECWMF IN
TERMS OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
ALSO STAYING ON MORE OF THE MILD SIDE THAN COLD IN REGARDS TO
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1250 AM EST TUESDAY...

MVFR CIGS WILL START PROGRESSES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A WARM FRONT HEADING TOWARD THE AREA. ALONG WITH
THE FRONT WILL COME LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY...MANY
AREAS WILL HAVE LOWERED TO LIFR/IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS DUE TO THE
PRECIPITATION AND MIST. THE BULK OF THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL
BE CONFINED TO NORTH A LINE FROM KBLF-KROA-KLYH DURING THE LATE
MORNING. BY THE AFTERNOON...SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MILD
ENOUGH FOR A WIDESPREAD AREA OF RAIN.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE NIGHT AND GRADUALLY VEER TO
THE SOUTHEAST. ON TUESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AND WINDS AT 850 MB WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
45 TO 50 KTS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT TERMINALS AT HIGHER ELEVATION.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
PERIOD.

EXTENDED FORECAST...

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT ALL OF THE REGION
WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY
AND WINTER PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

FRIDAY SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR WEATHER.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 300 PM EST MONDAY

LIKELY TO SEE SOME SUBSTANTIAL RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS IN
RESPONSE TO UPCOMING RAIN EVENT AND SNOWMELT IN THE
MOUNTAINS...QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT HOW SUBSTANTIAL. SIGNIFICANT SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE NOW CONFINED TO PARTS OF THE UPPER JAMES AND
GREENBRIER RIVER BASINS WHERE THE LATEST AVAILABLE ESTIMATES FROM
THE NATIONAL OPERATIONAL REMOTE SENSING CENTER SHOW ROUGHLY 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT WITH ISOLATED 4 INCHES IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE GREENBRIER. IN THE OTHER MAJOR RIVER
BASINS...NEW...ROANOKE/DAN AND TENNESSEE... MELTING OVER THE
WEEKEND AND TODAY HAS REDUCED THE SNOW TO LESS THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW
WATER AND IN MOST PLACES ZERO.

THE OTHER ELEMENT OF COURSE IS THE QPF. 12Z MODELS (INCLUDING
LATEST EC) HAVE NUDGED THE HEAVIEST QPF A LITTLE MORE TO THE
WEST...REDUCING AMOUNTS IN THE JAMES AND GREENBRIER SOME. IT STILL
APPEARS AS IF 1 TO 2 INCHES COULD FALL ACROSS THE WESTERN BASINS
BY 12Z THURSDAY AND COMBINED WITH SNOWMELT THIS COULD PRODUCE AT
LEAST MINOR RIVER FLOODING ALONG THE GREENBRIER AND POSSIBLY THE
UPPER JAMES. GUIDANCE RECEIVED FROM OHRFC THIS MORNING SUGGESTED
MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT ALDERSON WV ON THE GREENBRIER LIKELY BY EARLY
THURSDAY WITH THE COMBINED SNOWMELT AND QPF. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTIES WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ011-013-014-017>019-022-023-032>034-043-045.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ007-009-010-012-015-016.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ020-024-035-046-047.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NCZ001-002-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ043-044-507-508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ042.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS/DS/KK
HYDROLOGY...PC




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030922
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
422 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER D.C. THIS MORNING. FLOW
ALOFT IS FROM THE WNW...WELL OUT AHEAD OF BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE
WRN CONUS. MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE
AREA THIS MORNING WHICH HAS IN TURN KEPT TEMPS FROM FALLING OFF
TOO SHARPLY. CURRENTLY HAVE UPR 20S/LOW 30S IN PLACE...WITH SOME
MID 30S ACROSS SOUTHSIDE HAMPTON ROADS AND NE NC. WITH DRY AIRMASS
IN PLACE THIS MORNING AND 00Z GUIDANCE SHOWING LACK OF APPRECIABLE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REACHING THE FA UNTIL AFTER 15Z...HAVE LIMITED
POTENTIAL FOR ANY PCPN ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL AFTER 18Z...EXPECT
SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) IN THE FAR NW AROUND 15Z. CENTER OF SFC HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY PUSHES OFFSHORE BY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LOW
LEVEL CAD REMAINS OVER THE FA. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN
THRU THE MORNING WHICH WILL LIMIT TEMP RISES. BETTER COVERAGE OF
PCPN IS EXPECTED BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A BRIEF PERIOD OF FZRA OVR FAR NW AREAS BETWEEN 15-20Z AS
TEMPS STRUGGLE TO REACH/SURPASS 32F THROUGH EARLY AFTN. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW ATTM GIVEN MARGINAL TEMPS AND A WARM DAY YESTERDAY...SO
WILL NOT ISSUE A WINTER WX ADVISORY AS IMPACTS WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE.
OTHERWISE...P-TYPE TO BE ALL RAIN OVR THE REGION THIS AFTN/EVE. HIGH
TEMPS TO BE REACHED LATE IN THE DAY...RANGING FROM THE M/U30S NW-CENTRAL
LOCATIONS TO LOW 40S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM FRONT TO LIFT NE THROUGH THE FA TONIGHT. BEST MOISTURE AND
UVM ACRS CNTRL/NRN PORTIONS OF FA...THUS THE HIGHEST POPS...W/
WITH CHC POPS LIMITED TO SRN VA/NE NC. BULK OF THE RA LIFTS TO NRN
PORTION BY LT AT NGT. LO TEMPS LIKELY ARND 00Z/04 WITH RISING
TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPS BY 12Z/04 WED RISE INTO THE MID/UPR
40S TO MID 50S SE.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRONG SSW FLOW.
THERE RMN TIMING ISSUES W/ THE APPROACHING CDFNT FM THE NNW...HOWEVER
A GFS/ECMWF BLEND LOOKS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS
(40-70%) BY AFTN ACRS NRN TIER OF FA...W/ SLGT CHC TO CHC (20-40%)
TO THE S. FOR NOW...LEAVING OUT ANY MENTION OF T ACRS SRN VA/NE
NC...SINCE IT APRS MOST OF MOISTURE CONFINED TO W/ AND BEHIND THE
FNT. HI TEMPS FM THE U50S/L60S N TO L70S IN FAR SE VA/NE NC.

JUST ONE YEAR AGO...MARCH 2ND-3RD...WENT FM 60S TO L70S (THE 2ND)
TO A FEW INCHES OF SN (ON THE 3RD). THIS MAY OCCUR AGN THIS WK
(WED-THU).

FCST CHALLENGES CONT WED NGT THROUGH THU AS CDFNT SETTLES SSE
THROUGH THE FA...AND ANOTHER AREA OF ARCTIC SFC HI PRES BUILDS TWD
THE MS/OH VLYS. WILL LEAN TWD THE FASTER ARRIVAL OF COLDER SFC
AIR FM THE NNW (GFS/ECMWF) BY LT WED NGT AND CONTG ON THU. THE
MDLS EACH HINT AT WK SFC LO PRES TRACKING THROUGH NC AS S/W ALOFT
(IN FAST SWLY FLO) IS SHEARED AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE RGN. ALL
THIS LEADS TO A TRANSITION (WRT P-TYPE) LT WED/THU. RA...BECOMES
MIXED W/ IP-CHANGING TO SN/IP THEN ENDING AS SN FM NNW TO SE ACRS
THE FA (LASTLY ACRS NE NC BY MID OR LT AFTN THU). TIMING THOSE
TRANSITIONS AT THIS POINT VERY DIFFICULT...THOUGH CURRENTLY EXPECT
A LEAST LGT SN ACCUMS FOR AREAS N OF THE NC/VA BORDER BEFORE THE
DAY ENDS THU (T-2 INCHES S...1-4 INCHES N (HIGHEST PTNTTLY FM
RIC-SBY)). ALONG W/ THE TRANSITION TO WINTRY PCPN...GUSTY NNE WNDS
WILL BE PUSHING COLDER AIR INTO THE RGN. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM ARND
30F N TO THE LOW/MID 40S FAR S. TEMPS THU STEADY OR FALLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED IN WAKE OF THURS COLD FRONT...BUT
MODERATING TEMPS THRU THE WEEKEND WILL BRING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE THURS NIGHT WITH THE NRN PORTION OF THE
FRONT PUSHING WELL OFFSHORE. SRN PORTION PUSHES SWD OVER THE GULF
STATES/NRN GULF...STALLING IN WLY FLOW ALOFT. ENDED CHANCE POPS NEAR
THE COAST AT MIDNIGHT...WITH DRYING/CLEARING CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.
1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FRI...RESULTING
IN ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. H85
TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND -12C (-2 STD DEV)...WITH THICKNESSES
YIELDING TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI
NIGHT WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING MODERATE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.
TEMPS FORECAST IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS FRI NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. THEREAFTER...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE THANKS
TO DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW OVER THE WRN CONUS. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
AGAIN BE CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC FLOW (TROUGHING) OVER THE ERN
CONUS AND RIDGING (RETURN TO A +PNA) OVER THE WRN CONUS. MODELS
STRUGGLING WITH A NUMBER OF CANADIAN IMPULSES SET TO IMPACT THE NE
STATES...BUT ALSO SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE BAJA THIS WEEKEND.
ECMWF RATHER ROBUST WITH THIS ENERGY...TRANSLATING ACROSS NRN MEXICO
AND THE SRN PLAINS SAT NIGHT-SUN...POSSIBLY PHASING WITH NRN STREAM
ENERGY OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS SOLUTION WOULD LIFT THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF NWD LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
RAIN TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS SHEARS THE
ENERGY...KEEPING IT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...KEEPING THE LOCAL
AREA DRY. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD A WPC/ENSEMBLE APPROACH WHICH
KEEPS THE SRN STREAM WAVE FLAT AND THE LOCAL AREA DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND..WITH MODERATING TEMPS. HIGHS SAT FORECAST IN THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-MID 40S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS SUN IN THE
MID 50S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 40S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PASS OVER THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WITH A LIGHT NNE WIND DUE TO 1030MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER
PA. ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE ECG...WHICH WILL HAVE A PERIOD OF 5KFT
CIGS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF -RA IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY AFTER 21Z.
CIGS LOWER TO 4-5KFT THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH A LIGHT ESE WIND.
THERE IS AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
THE CHC OF RA INCREASES LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RA
OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING. A TRANSITION TO
A MIX AND EVENTUALLY SN SHOULD BEGIN AT SBY AFTER 06Z...WITH THE
TRANSITION OCCURRING AT RIC CLOSER TO 12Z. FARTHER SE...THE CHANGE
SHOULD OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY. ADDITIONALLY...A GUSTY NORTHERLY
WIND WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
1030MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE TODAY ALLOWING A
10-15KT NNE WIND TO BECOME SE AOB 10KT BY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH SHIFTS
FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.
DESPITE A STRONG LLJ IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO OBTAIN SCA CONDITIONS
GIVEN WAA OVER COLD WATER. GIVEN THIS...WIND/SEAS HAVE BEEN CAPPED
BELOW SCA CRITERIA. OVERALL...EXPECT A SSW WIND ~15KT FOR THE BAY
AND A 15-20KT FOR THE OCEAN ALONG WITH 3-4FT SEAS/2-3FT WAVES. A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NNW WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND SLOWLY
DROPS TO A POSITION NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. THE FRONT THEN BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. CAA COMMENCES THURSDAY AS
THE LOW PULLS OFFSHORE AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS 1040MB
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH A NORTHERLY WIND OF 20-25KT...AND 4-7FT
SEAS (HIGHEST S) AND 3-4FT WAVES IN THE BAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SLIDES OFFSHORE SATURDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030922
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
422 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER D.C. THIS MORNING. FLOW
ALOFT IS FROM THE WNW...WELL OUT AHEAD OF BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE
WRN CONUS. MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE
AREA THIS MORNING WHICH HAS IN TURN KEPT TEMPS FROM FALLING OFF
TOO SHARPLY. CURRENTLY HAVE UPR 20S/LOW 30S IN PLACE...WITH SOME
MID 30S ACROSS SOUTHSIDE HAMPTON ROADS AND NE NC. WITH DRY AIRMASS
IN PLACE THIS MORNING AND 00Z GUIDANCE SHOWING LACK OF APPRECIABLE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REACHING THE FA UNTIL AFTER 15Z...HAVE LIMITED
POTENTIAL FOR ANY PCPN ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL AFTER 18Z...EXPECT
SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) IN THE FAR NW AROUND 15Z. CENTER OF SFC HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY PUSHES OFFSHORE BY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LOW
LEVEL CAD REMAINS OVER THE FA. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN
THRU THE MORNING WHICH WILL LIMIT TEMP RISES. BETTER COVERAGE OF
PCPN IS EXPECTED BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A BRIEF PERIOD OF FZRA OVR FAR NW AREAS BETWEEN 15-20Z AS
TEMPS STRUGGLE TO REACH/SURPASS 32F THROUGH EARLY AFTN. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW ATTM GIVEN MARGINAL TEMPS AND A WARM DAY YESTERDAY...SO
WILL NOT ISSUE A WINTER WX ADVISORY AS IMPACTS WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE.
OTHERWISE...P-TYPE TO BE ALL RAIN OVR THE REGION THIS AFTN/EVE. HIGH
TEMPS TO BE REACHED LATE IN THE DAY...RANGING FROM THE M/U30S NW-CENTRAL
LOCATIONS TO LOW 40S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM FRONT TO LIFT NE THROUGH THE FA TONIGHT. BEST MOISTURE AND
UVM ACRS CNTRL/NRN PORTIONS OF FA...THUS THE HIGHEST POPS...W/
WITH CHC POPS LIMITED TO SRN VA/NE NC. BULK OF THE RA LIFTS TO NRN
PORTION BY LT AT NGT. LO TEMPS LIKELY ARND 00Z/04 WITH RISING
TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPS BY 12Z/04 WED RISE INTO THE MID/UPR
40S TO MID 50S SE.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRONG SSW FLOW.
THERE RMN TIMING ISSUES W/ THE APPROACHING CDFNT FM THE NNW...HOWEVER
A GFS/ECMWF BLEND LOOKS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS
(40-70%) BY AFTN ACRS NRN TIER OF FA...W/ SLGT CHC TO CHC (20-40%)
TO THE S. FOR NOW...LEAVING OUT ANY MENTION OF T ACRS SRN VA/NE
NC...SINCE IT APRS MOST OF MOISTURE CONFINED TO W/ AND BEHIND THE
FNT. HI TEMPS FM THE U50S/L60S N TO L70S IN FAR SE VA/NE NC.

JUST ONE YEAR AGO...MARCH 2ND-3RD...WENT FM 60S TO L70S (THE 2ND)
TO A FEW INCHES OF SN (ON THE 3RD). THIS MAY OCCUR AGN THIS WK
(WED-THU).

FCST CHALLENGES CONT WED NGT THROUGH THU AS CDFNT SETTLES SSE
THROUGH THE FA...AND ANOTHER AREA OF ARCTIC SFC HI PRES BUILDS TWD
THE MS/OH VLYS. WILL LEAN TWD THE FASTER ARRIVAL OF COLDER SFC
AIR FM THE NNW (GFS/ECMWF) BY LT WED NGT AND CONTG ON THU. THE
MDLS EACH HINT AT WK SFC LO PRES TRACKING THROUGH NC AS S/W ALOFT
(IN FAST SWLY FLO) IS SHEARED AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE RGN. ALL
THIS LEADS TO A TRANSITION (WRT P-TYPE) LT WED/THU. RA...BECOMES
MIXED W/ IP-CHANGING TO SN/IP THEN ENDING AS SN FM NNW TO SE ACRS
THE FA (LASTLY ACRS NE NC BY MID OR LT AFTN THU). TIMING THOSE
TRANSITIONS AT THIS POINT VERY DIFFICULT...THOUGH CURRENTLY EXPECT
A LEAST LGT SN ACCUMS FOR AREAS N OF THE NC/VA BORDER BEFORE THE
DAY ENDS THU (T-2 INCHES S...1-4 INCHES N (HIGHEST PTNTTLY FM
RIC-SBY)). ALONG W/ THE TRANSITION TO WINTRY PCPN...GUSTY NNE WNDS
WILL BE PUSHING COLDER AIR INTO THE RGN. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM ARND
30F N TO THE LOW/MID 40S FAR S. TEMPS THU STEADY OR FALLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED IN WAKE OF THURS COLD FRONT...BUT
MODERATING TEMPS THRU THE WEEKEND WILL BRING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE THURS NIGHT WITH THE NRN PORTION OF THE
FRONT PUSHING WELL OFFSHORE. SRN PORTION PUSHES SWD OVER THE GULF
STATES/NRN GULF...STALLING IN WLY FLOW ALOFT. ENDED CHANCE POPS NEAR
THE COAST AT MIDNIGHT...WITH DRYING/CLEARING CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.
1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FRI...RESULTING
IN ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. H85
TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND -12C (-2 STD DEV)...WITH THICKNESSES
YIELDING TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI
NIGHT WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING MODERATE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.
TEMPS FORECAST IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS FRI NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. THEREAFTER...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE THANKS
TO DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW OVER THE WRN CONUS. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
AGAIN BE CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC FLOW (TROUGHING) OVER THE ERN
CONUS AND RIDGING (RETURN TO A +PNA) OVER THE WRN CONUS. MODELS
STRUGGLING WITH A NUMBER OF CANADIAN IMPULSES SET TO IMPACT THE NE
STATES...BUT ALSO SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE BAJA THIS WEEKEND.
ECMWF RATHER ROBUST WITH THIS ENERGY...TRANSLATING ACROSS NRN MEXICO
AND THE SRN PLAINS SAT NIGHT-SUN...POSSIBLY PHASING WITH NRN STREAM
ENERGY OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS SOLUTION WOULD LIFT THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF NWD LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
RAIN TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS SHEARS THE
ENERGY...KEEPING IT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...KEEPING THE LOCAL
AREA DRY. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD A WPC/ENSEMBLE APPROACH WHICH
KEEPS THE SRN STREAM WAVE FLAT AND THE LOCAL AREA DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND..WITH MODERATING TEMPS. HIGHS SAT FORECAST IN THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-MID 40S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS SUN IN THE
MID 50S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 40S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PASS OVER THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WITH A LIGHT NNE WIND DUE TO 1030MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER
PA. ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE ECG...WHICH WILL HAVE A PERIOD OF 5KFT
CIGS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF -RA IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY AFTER 21Z.
CIGS LOWER TO 4-5KFT THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH A LIGHT ESE WIND.
THERE IS AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
THE CHC OF RA INCREASES LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RA
OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING. A TRANSITION TO
A MIX AND EVENTUALLY SN SHOULD BEGIN AT SBY AFTER 06Z...WITH THE
TRANSITION OCCURRING AT RIC CLOSER TO 12Z. FARTHER SE...THE CHANGE
SHOULD OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY. ADDITIONALLY...A GUSTY NORTHERLY
WIND WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
1030MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE TODAY ALLOWING A
10-15KT NNE WIND TO BECOME SE AOB 10KT BY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH SHIFTS
FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.
DESPITE A STRONG LLJ IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO OBTAIN SCA CONDITIONS
GIVEN WAA OVER COLD WATER. GIVEN THIS...WIND/SEAS HAVE BEEN CAPPED
BELOW SCA CRITERIA. OVERALL...EXPECT A SSW WIND ~15KT FOR THE BAY
AND A 15-20KT FOR THE OCEAN ALONG WITH 3-4FT SEAS/2-3FT WAVES. A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NNW WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND SLOWLY
DROPS TO A POSITION NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. THE FRONT THEN BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. CAA COMMENCES THURSDAY AS
THE LOW PULLS OFFSHORE AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS 1040MB
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH A NORTHERLY WIND OF 20-25KT...AND 4-7FT
SEAS (HIGHEST S) AND 3-4FT WAVES IN THE BAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SLIDES OFFSHORE SATURDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030922
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
422 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER D.C. THIS MORNING. FLOW
ALOFT IS FROM THE WNW...WELL OUT AHEAD OF BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE
WRN CONUS. MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE
AREA THIS MORNING WHICH HAS IN TURN KEPT TEMPS FROM FALLING OFF
TOO SHARPLY. CURRENTLY HAVE UPR 20S/LOW 30S IN PLACE...WITH SOME
MID 30S ACROSS SOUTHSIDE HAMPTON ROADS AND NE NC. WITH DRY AIRMASS
IN PLACE THIS MORNING AND 00Z GUIDANCE SHOWING LACK OF APPRECIABLE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REACHING THE FA UNTIL AFTER 15Z...HAVE LIMITED
POTENTIAL FOR ANY PCPN ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL AFTER 18Z...EXPECT
SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) IN THE FAR NW AROUND 15Z. CENTER OF SFC HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY PUSHES OFFSHORE BY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LOW
LEVEL CAD REMAINS OVER THE FA. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN
THRU THE MORNING WHICH WILL LIMIT TEMP RISES. BETTER COVERAGE OF
PCPN IS EXPECTED BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A BRIEF PERIOD OF FZRA OVR FAR NW AREAS BETWEEN 15-20Z AS
TEMPS STRUGGLE TO REACH/SURPASS 32F THROUGH EARLY AFTN. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW ATTM GIVEN MARGINAL TEMPS AND A WARM DAY YESTERDAY...SO
WILL NOT ISSUE A WINTER WX ADVISORY AS IMPACTS WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE.
OTHERWISE...P-TYPE TO BE ALL RAIN OVR THE REGION THIS AFTN/EVE. HIGH
TEMPS TO BE REACHED LATE IN THE DAY...RANGING FROM THE M/U30S NW-CENTRAL
LOCATIONS TO LOW 40S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM FRONT TO LIFT NE THROUGH THE FA TONIGHT. BEST MOISTURE AND
UVM ACRS CNTRL/NRN PORTIONS OF FA...THUS THE HIGHEST POPS...W/
WITH CHC POPS LIMITED TO SRN VA/NE NC. BULK OF THE RA LIFTS TO NRN
PORTION BY LT AT NGT. LO TEMPS LIKELY ARND 00Z/04 WITH RISING
TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPS BY 12Z/04 WED RISE INTO THE MID/UPR
40S TO MID 50S SE.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRONG SSW FLOW.
THERE RMN TIMING ISSUES W/ THE APPROACHING CDFNT FM THE NNW...HOWEVER
A GFS/ECMWF BLEND LOOKS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS
(40-70%) BY AFTN ACRS NRN TIER OF FA...W/ SLGT CHC TO CHC (20-40%)
TO THE S. FOR NOW...LEAVING OUT ANY MENTION OF T ACRS SRN VA/NE
NC...SINCE IT APRS MOST OF MOISTURE CONFINED TO W/ AND BEHIND THE
FNT. HI TEMPS FM THE U50S/L60S N TO L70S IN FAR SE VA/NE NC.

JUST ONE YEAR AGO...MARCH 2ND-3RD...WENT FM 60S TO L70S (THE 2ND)
TO A FEW INCHES OF SN (ON THE 3RD). THIS MAY OCCUR AGN THIS WK
(WED-THU).

FCST CHALLENGES CONT WED NGT THROUGH THU AS CDFNT SETTLES SSE
THROUGH THE FA...AND ANOTHER AREA OF ARCTIC SFC HI PRES BUILDS TWD
THE MS/OH VLYS. WILL LEAN TWD THE FASTER ARRIVAL OF COLDER SFC
AIR FM THE NNW (GFS/ECMWF) BY LT WED NGT AND CONTG ON THU. THE
MDLS EACH HINT AT WK SFC LO PRES TRACKING THROUGH NC AS S/W ALOFT
(IN FAST SWLY FLO) IS SHEARED AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE RGN. ALL
THIS LEADS TO A TRANSITION (WRT P-TYPE) LT WED/THU. RA...BECOMES
MIXED W/ IP-CHANGING TO SN/IP THEN ENDING AS SN FM NNW TO SE ACRS
THE FA (LASTLY ACRS NE NC BY MID OR LT AFTN THU). TIMING THOSE
TRANSITIONS AT THIS POINT VERY DIFFICULT...THOUGH CURRENTLY EXPECT
A LEAST LGT SN ACCUMS FOR AREAS N OF THE NC/VA BORDER BEFORE THE
DAY ENDS THU (T-2 INCHES S...1-4 INCHES N (HIGHEST PTNTTLY FM
RIC-SBY)). ALONG W/ THE TRANSITION TO WINTRY PCPN...GUSTY NNE WNDS
WILL BE PUSHING COLDER AIR INTO THE RGN. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM ARND
30F N TO THE LOW/MID 40S FAR S. TEMPS THU STEADY OR FALLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED IN WAKE OF THURS COLD FRONT...BUT
MODERATING TEMPS THRU THE WEEKEND WILL BRING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE THURS NIGHT WITH THE NRN PORTION OF THE
FRONT PUSHING WELL OFFSHORE. SRN PORTION PUSHES SWD OVER THE GULF
STATES/NRN GULF...STALLING IN WLY FLOW ALOFT. ENDED CHANCE POPS NEAR
THE COAST AT MIDNIGHT...WITH DRYING/CLEARING CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.
1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FRI...RESULTING
IN ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. H85
TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND -12C (-2 STD DEV)...WITH THICKNESSES
YIELDING TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI
NIGHT WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING MODERATE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.
TEMPS FORECAST IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS FRI NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. THEREAFTER...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE THANKS
TO DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW OVER THE WRN CONUS. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
AGAIN BE CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC FLOW (TROUGHING) OVER THE ERN
CONUS AND RIDGING (RETURN TO A +PNA) OVER THE WRN CONUS. MODELS
STRUGGLING WITH A NUMBER OF CANADIAN IMPULSES SET TO IMPACT THE NE
STATES...BUT ALSO SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE BAJA THIS WEEKEND.
ECMWF RATHER ROBUST WITH THIS ENERGY...TRANSLATING ACROSS NRN MEXICO
AND THE SRN PLAINS SAT NIGHT-SUN...POSSIBLY PHASING WITH NRN STREAM
ENERGY OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS SOLUTION WOULD LIFT THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF NWD LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
RAIN TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS SHEARS THE
ENERGY...KEEPING IT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...KEEPING THE LOCAL
AREA DRY. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD A WPC/ENSEMBLE APPROACH WHICH
KEEPS THE SRN STREAM WAVE FLAT AND THE LOCAL AREA DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND..WITH MODERATING TEMPS. HIGHS SAT FORECAST IN THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-MID 40S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS SUN IN THE
MID 50S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 40S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PASS OVER THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WITH A LIGHT NNE WIND DUE TO 1030MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER
PA. ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE ECG...WHICH WILL HAVE A PERIOD OF 5KFT
CIGS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF -RA IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY AFTER 21Z.
CIGS LOWER TO 4-5KFT THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH A LIGHT ESE WIND.
THERE IS AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
THE CHC OF RA INCREASES LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RA
OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING. A TRANSITION TO
A MIX AND EVENTUALLY SN SHOULD BEGIN AT SBY AFTER 06Z...WITH THE
TRANSITION OCCURRING AT RIC CLOSER TO 12Z. FARTHER SE...THE CHANGE
SHOULD OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY. ADDITIONALLY...A GUSTY NORTHERLY
WIND WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
1030MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE TODAY ALLOWING A
10-15KT NNE WIND TO BECOME SE AOB 10KT BY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH SHIFTS
FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.
DESPITE A STRONG LLJ IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO OBTAIN SCA CONDITIONS
GIVEN WAA OVER COLD WATER. GIVEN THIS...WIND/SEAS HAVE BEEN CAPPED
BELOW SCA CRITERIA. OVERALL...EXPECT A SSW WIND ~15KT FOR THE BAY
AND A 15-20KT FOR THE OCEAN ALONG WITH 3-4FT SEAS/2-3FT WAVES. A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NNW WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND SLOWLY
DROPS TO A POSITION NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. THE FRONT THEN BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. CAA COMMENCES THURSDAY AS
THE LOW PULLS OFFSHORE AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS 1040MB
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH A NORTHERLY WIND OF 20-25KT...AND 4-7FT
SEAS (HIGHEST S) AND 3-4FT WAVES IN THE BAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SLIDES OFFSHORE SATURDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030922
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
422 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER D.C. THIS MORNING. FLOW
ALOFT IS FROM THE WNW...WELL OUT AHEAD OF BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE
WRN CONUS. MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE
AREA THIS MORNING WHICH HAS IN TURN KEPT TEMPS FROM FALLING OFF
TOO SHARPLY. CURRENTLY HAVE UPR 20S/LOW 30S IN PLACE...WITH SOME
MID 30S ACROSS SOUTHSIDE HAMPTON ROADS AND NE NC. WITH DRY AIRMASS
IN PLACE THIS MORNING AND 00Z GUIDANCE SHOWING LACK OF APPRECIABLE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REACHING THE FA UNTIL AFTER 15Z...HAVE LIMITED
POTENTIAL FOR ANY PCPN ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL AFTER 18Z...EXPECT
SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) IN THE FAR NW AROUND 15Z. CENTER OF SFC HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY PUSHES OFFSHORE BY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LOW
LEVEL CAD REMAINS OVER THE FA. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN
THRU THE MORNING WHICH WILL LIMIT TEMP RISES. BETTER COVERAGE OF
PCPN IS EXPECTED BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A BRIEF PERIOD OF FZRA OVR FAR NW AREAS BETWEEN 15-20Z AS
TEMPS STRUGGLE TO REACH/SURPASS 32F THROUGH EARLY AFTN. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW ATTM GIVEN MARGINAL TEMPS AND A WARM DAY YESTERDAY...SO
WILL NOT ISSUE A WINTER WX ADVISORY AS IMPACTS WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE.
OTHERWISE...P-TYPE TO BE ALL RAIN OVR THE REGION THIS AFTN/EVE. HIGH
TEMPS TO BE REACHED LATE IN THE DAY...RANGING FROM THE M/U30S NW-CENTRAL
LOCATIONS TO LOW 40S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM FRONT TO LIFT NE THROUGH THE FA TONIGHT. BEST MOISTURE AND
UVM ACRS CNTRL/NRN PORTIONS OF FA...THUS THE HIGHEST POPS...W/
WITH CHC POPS LIMITED TO SRN VA/NE NC. BULK OF THE RA LIFTS TO NRN
PORTION BY LT AT NGT. LO TEMPS LIKELY ARND 00Z/04 WITH RISING
TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPS BY 12Z/04 WED RISE INTO THE MID/UPR
40S TO MID 50S SE.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRONG SSW FLOW.
THERE RMN TIMING ISSUES W/ THE APPROACHING CDFNT FM THE NNW...HOWEVER
A GFS/ECMWF BLEND LOOKS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS
(40-70%) BY AFTN ACRS NRN TIER OF FA...W/ SLGT CHC TO CHC (20-40%)
TO THE S. FOR NOW...LEAVING OUT ANY MENTION OF T ACRS SRN VA/NE
NC...SINCE IT APRS MOST OF MOISTURE CONFINED TO W/ AND BEHIND THE
FNT. HI TEMPS FM THE U50S/L60S N TO L70S IN FAR SE VA/NE NC.

JUST ONE YEAR AGO...MARCH 2ND-3RD...WENT FM 60S TO L70S (THE 2ND)
TO A FEW INCHES OF SN (ON THE 3RD). THIS MAY OCCUR AGN THIS WK
(WED-THU).

FCST CHALLENGES CONT WED NGT THROUGH THU AS CDFNT SETTLES SSE
THROUGH THE FA...AND ANOTHER AREA OF ARCTIC SFC HI PRES BUILDS TWD
THE MS/OH VLYS. WILL LEAN TWD THE FASTER ARRIVAL OF COLDER SFC
AIR FM THE NNW (GFS/ECMWF) BY LT WED NGT AND CONTG ON THU. THE
MDLS EACH HINT AT WK SFC LO PRES TRACKING THROUGH NC AS S/W ALOFT
(IN FAST SWLY FLO) IS SHEARED AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE RGN. ALL
THIS LEADS TO A TRANSITION (WRT P-TYPE) LT WED/THU. RA...BECOMES
MIXED W/ IP-CHANGING TO SN/IP THEN ENDING AS SN FM NNW TO SE ACRS
THE FA (LASTLY ACRS NE NC BY MID OR LT AFTN THU). TIMING THOSE
TRANSITIONS AT THIS POINT VERY DIFFICULT...THOUGH CURRENTLY EXPECT
A LEAST LGT SN ACCUMS FOR AREAS N OF THE NC/VA BORDER BEFORE THE
DAY ENDS THU (T-2 INCHES S...1-4 INCHES N (HIGHEST PTNTTLY FM
RIC-SBY)). ALONG W/ THE TRANSITION TO WINTRY PCPN...GUSTY NNE WNDS
WILL BE PUSHING COLDER AIR INTO THE RGN. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM ARND
30F N TO THE LOW/MID 40S FAR S. TEMPS THU STEADY OR FALLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED IN WAKE OF THURS COLD FRONT...BUT
MODERATING TEMPS THRU THE WEEKEND WILL BRING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE THURS NIGHT WITH THE NRN PORTION OF THE
FRONT PUSHING WELL OFFSHORE. SRN PORTION PUSHES SWD OVER THE GULF
STATES/NRN GULF...STALLING IN WLY FLOW ALOFT. ENDED CHANCE POPS NEAR
THE COAST AT MIDNIGHT...WITH DRYING/CLEARING CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.
1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FRI...RESULTING
IN ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. H85
TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND -12C (-2 STD DEV)...WITH THICKNESSES
YIELDING TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI
NIGHT WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING MODERATE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.
TEMPS FORECAST IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS FRI NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. THEREAFTER...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE THANKS
TO DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW OVER THE WRN CONUS. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
AGAIN BE CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC FLOW (TROUGHING) OVER THE ERN
CONUS AND RIDGING (RETURN TO A +PNA) OVER THE WRN CONUS. MODELS
STRUGGLING WITH A NUMBER OF CANADIAN IMPULSES SET TO IMPACT THE NE
STATES...BUT ALSO SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE BAJA THIS WEEKEND.
ECMWF RATHER ROBUST WITH THIS ENERGY...TRANSLATING ACROSS NRN MEXICO
AND THE SRN PLAINS SAT NIGHT-SUN...POSSIBLY PHASING WITH NRN STREAM
ENERGY OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS SOLUTION WOULD LIFT THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF NWD LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
RAIN TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS SHEARS THE
ENERGY...KEEPING IT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...KEEPING THE LOCAL
AREA DRY. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD A WPC/ENSEMBLE APPROACH WHICH
KEEPS THE SRN STREAM WAVE FLAT AND THE LOCAL AREA DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND..WITH MODERATING TEMPS. HIGHS SAT FORECAST IN THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-MID 40S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS SUN IN THE
MID 50S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 40S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PASS OVER THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WITH A LIGHT NNE WIND DUE TO 1030MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER
PA. ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE ECG...WHICH WILL HAVE A PERIOD OF 5KFT
CIGS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF -RA IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY AFTER 21Z.
CIGS LOWER TO 4-5KFT THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH A LIGHT ESE WIND.
THERE IS AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
THE CHC OF RA INCREASES LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RA
OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING. A TRANSITION TO
A MIX AND EVENTUALLY SN SHOULD BEGIN AT SBY AFTER 06Z...WITH THE
TRANSITION OCCURRING AT RIC CLOSER TO 12Z. FARTHER SE...THE CHANGE
SHOULD OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY. ADDITIONALLY...A GUSTY NORTHERLY
WIND WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
1030MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE TODAY ALLOWING A
10-15KT NNE WIND TO BECOME SE AOB 10KT BY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH SHIFTS
FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.
DESPITE A STRONG LLJ IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO OBTAIN SCA CONDITIONS
GIVEN WAA OVER COLD WATER. GIVEN THIS...WIND/SEAS HAVE BEEN CAPPED
BELOW SCA CRITERIA. OVERALL...EXPECT A SSW WIND ~15KT FOR THE BAY
AND A 15-20KT FOR THE OCEAN ALONG WITH 3-4FT SEAS/2-3FT WAVES. A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NNW WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND SLOWLY
DROPS TO A POSITION NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. THE FRONT THEN BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. CAA COMMENCES THURSDAY AS
THE LOW PULLS OFFSHORE AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS 1040MB
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH A NORTHERLY WIND OF 20-25KT...AND 4-7FT
SEAS (HIGHEST S) AND 3-4FT WAVES IN THE BAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SLIDES OFFSHORE SATURDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ







000
FXUS61 KLWX 030855
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
355 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR
THURSDAY LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 08Z...1031MB SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER E-CNTRL PA WITH
1030MB PRESSURE OVER MOST OF LWX. SFC WINDS EITHER DECOUPLED OR
LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH. TRANSLUCENT CI HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA...
WILL THICKEN REST OF THE NIGHT...LIMITING MIN TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO.
MOST AREAS TO START THE MORNING IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. PRECIP FOR
TODAY/TONIGHT IS ADVANCING EAST OVER IL/IN...AHEAD OF AN UPR TROUGH
MOVING EAST FROM THE NRN PLAINS. CLOUDS SHOWING UP ON RADAR WEST
FROM SRN SHEN VLY. WITH DRY SFC CONDITIONS...NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED
OUT THERE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.

TODAY...PRECIP ONSET CONSENSUS TO BE LATE MORNING FOR WRN/NWRN
SECTION OF THE CWA...AFTER NOON FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA
INCLUDING DC. THEREFORE...PUSHED BACK THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
BEGINNING TIMES TO 10 AM FOR SHEN VLY AND N-CNTRL VA AND NOON FOR
GREATER BALT-WASH AND SRN MD. WITH WARM AIR RETURN NOT DELAYED...
THE WINDOW FOR FROZEN/FREEZING PRECIP IS SHORTER FOR AREAS LIKE SRN
MD. HOWEVER... THE NRN TIER SHOULD SEE SNOW/SLEET ACCUMS OF PERHAPS
HALF AN INCH BEFORE GETTING ICE ACCRETION. LEFT HEADLINES UP FOR ALL
AREAS CONSIDERING THE FREEZING RAIN THRESHOLD IS JUST A TRACE.

THIS EVENING...TYPICAL AREAS IN THE NRN SHEN VLY/WRN MD AND NRN MD
SEE FREEZING RAIN THE LONGEST. MAY NEED TO EXTEND UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR
SO FOR NRN TIER OF MD COUNTIES ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE FOR TEMPS
LINGERING NEAR FREEZING.

TEMPERATURES RISE OVERNIGHT WITH PLAIN RAIN BY MIDNIGHT FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA. RAIN RATES INCREASE OVER ALLEGHENIES LATE...WILL NEED
TO BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR FLOODING CONCERNS GIVEN EXPECTED SNOWPACK
MELT WITH HIGHLANDS TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. ONE TO TWO TENTHS QPF
EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND HALF INCH OR MORE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT ENTERS CWA FROM THE WEST IN THE MORNING
AND DRIFTS EAST. WARMEST AIR IN NEARLY A MONTH (60F AT KIAD ON FEB
8) AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH LOW 50S (A LITTLE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECASTS) EXPECTED GIVEN WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER THE AREA AT THE TIME.
QPF QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY. MOST OF
THE AREA LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN SHORTWAVES IN THE AFTERNOON...REDUCING
RAIN RATES.

WEATHER IMPACTS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SFC BOUNDARY MAY HAVE
PUSHED A GOOD PART OF THE WAY THROUGH DURING THE EVENING...AS A WEAK
SFC WAVE IS PROJECTED TO CROSS THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...
COLDER TEMPS...ESPECIALLY ALOFT...WILL BE SLOW TO WORK SOUTHWARD.
PER COORDINATION WITH WPC...A GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION IS FAVORED...WHICH
ALLOWS THERMAL PROFILES TO COOL A BIT MORE QUICKLY AMONGST THE MODEL
SUITE. THIS ALSO GIVES A MORE DEFINITIVE RAIN-TO-SNOW TRANSITION VS
A MORE PRONOUNCED WARM NOSE IN THE NAM (LIKELY DUE TO A STRONGER SSW
LLJ IM THE 850-600MB LAYER) AND MORE MIXED PRECIP. CANNOT RULE OUT A
PERIOD OF IP/FZRA...BUT DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING/PLACEMENT TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. ON THE
WHOLE THOUGH...THERE WAS A SLIGHT SLOWING TREND OVERALL IN THE
TIMING OF PRECIP THROUGHOUT THE EVENT. ALL AREAS ARE FORECAST TO BE
SNOW BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH PRECIP ENDED NW-SE DURING THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY OR FALL.

SNOWFALL AMOUNT FORECASTS WILL BE CHALLENGING GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTIES WITH PTYPES...TIMING...AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE FALLS IN
THE COLD AIR. THERE WILL BE TREMENDOUS MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH
THE LLJ AS WELL AS LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET...BUT THE AXIS
OF HIGHEST QPF WILL LIKELY BE VERY NEAR THE TRANSITION ZONE...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR COLDER BUT DRIER AIR TO BEGIN WORKING INTO THE BACK
SIDE. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST OVER PREVIOUS. IF THE
QPF INDEED FALLS AFTER THE TRANSITION TO SNOW...OUR CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE. HOWEVER FEEL THERE IS STILL
TOO WIDE OF A SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS TO GO HIGHER. SEE OUR WEBPAGE
FOR THE PROB RANGES. WILL ALLOW DAYSHIFT TO DECIDE ON POTENTIAL
FOR WATCHES. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN LARGER SNOW TOTALS ARE OVER THE
HIGHLANDS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY
BE A PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. NAM INDICATES
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS A
VORT MAX PASSES...BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED THIS IN THE FORECAST NOW.
TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED COLDER...SINGLE DIGITS EXCEPT IN THE
METROS/NEAR THE BAY AND BELOW ZERO IN THE HIGHLANDS. IF GRADIENT
DOES NOT RELAX...WIND CHILL ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED IN THE
HIGHLANDS.

THE HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. FRIDAY
WILL STILL BE QUITE COLD BUT TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE
SATURDAY. MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONTS TRAILING LOW PRESSURE CENTERS
WELL TO THE NORTH WILL MAKE RUNS AT THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN MONDAY. FOR NOW HAVE ONLY INCLUDED POPS IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS.
THERE ALSO WILL BE LITTLE EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THIS MORNING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LIGHT WINTRY MIX
OVERSPREADS THE TERMINALS LATE THIS MORNING (KMRB AND KCHO) THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON (DC METROS) AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. HIGH CLOUDS
THICKEN AND LOWER TO MVFR CIGS BY MIDDAY...IFR CIGS EXPECTED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SLEET/SNOW AT ONSET
CHANGING QUICKLY OVER TO FREEZING RAIN. PLAIN RAIN SPREADS NORTH
OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAIN INTENSITY PICKS UP
LATE TONIGHT WITH IFR CONDS POSSIBLE AND PARTICULARLY FOR WEDNESDAY
MORNING WHEN IFR CONDS ARE MORE LIKELY IN MODERATE RAIN.

RAIN IS FORECAST TO CHANGE TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT. VSBY/CIG
REDUCTIONS WILL CONTINUE AND MAY DROP TO LIFR IF MODERATE/HEAVY SNOW
DEVELOPS. THE SNOW WILL END ON THURSDAY. NO AVIATION HAZARDS
EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT NLY FLOW UNTIL SUNRISE WHEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION. WARM FRONT APPROACHES THIS
MORNING...LIFTING NORTH OVER THE MD PART OF THE BAY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SLY FLOW THIS EVENING EXPECTED TO GET TO 15 KT...HELD
OFF ON SCA FOR NOW THOUGH SOME 18 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE. COLD FRONT
APPROACHES WEDNESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL
CHANGE TO SNOW BY THURSDAY MORNING. SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE THEREAFTER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LIQUID PRECIP FCST FROM WPC WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AREA ONE
TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES. WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE INTO
THE 50S ON WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME...POSSIBLY A LOT
OF...MELTING OF THE EXISTING SNOWPACK...WHICH COMPUTER MODELS AND
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE CONTAINS ANYWHERE FROM 3/4 INCH TO 2 INCHES
OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT. THIS COMBINATION MAY LEAD TO MINOR
FLOODING AS THE RAIN FALLS ON WEDNESDAY. FURTHER COMPLICATING THIS
FORECAST IS AN EXPECTED CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA.

ALTHOUGH RIVER ICE IS NOT ESPECIALLY THICK...IT WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL ROLE IN AFFECTING RUNOFF. ALSO...PLOWED SNOW
IS LIKELY COVERING SOME OF THE DRAINS OUT THERE...WHICH COULD CAUSE
MORE POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING THAN WOULD OTHERWISE USUALLY BE
EXPECTED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR DCZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR MDZ501-502.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR MDZ004>006-011-013-014-503>508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR MDZ003.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR MDZ016>018.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR VAZ503-504.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR VAZ025>031-036>040-050-051-501-502-507-
     508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR VAZ053-054-505-506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR VAZ052-055>057.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR WVZ050-055-501>506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR WVZ051>053.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/ADS
NEAR TERM...BAJ
SHORT TERM...BAJ/ADS
LONG TERM...ADS
AVIATION...BAJ/ADS
MARINE...BAJ/ADS
HYDROLOGY...LWX



000
FXUS61 KLWX 030704
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
204 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY
LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
JUST A QUICK HEADLINE UPDATE THAT THE START TIME OF THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY WAS DELAYED UNTIL 10 AM FOR THE SHENANDOAH
VALLEY...WRN MD...AND N-CNTRL VA AND UNTIL NOON FOR THE GREATER
BALTIMORE-WASHINGTON METRO AND SRN MD. END TIMES REMAIN THE
SAME. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS PRECIP COMING IN RATHER LATER THAN THE
PREVIOUS HEADLINE SEQUENCE WOULD SUGGEST. THE MORNING COMMUTE
LOOKS UNAFFECTED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE THREAT IS FOCUSED ON
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING RUSH.

PREVIOUS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ONIGHT.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF QUICKLY...DROPPING TO THE
LOWER 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT TEENS OVER THE NORMALLY COLDER
AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES. LIGHT PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT THEN SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA MID TO LATE MORNING.

PROFILES INDICATE THERE IS ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR PRECIPITATION TO
START AS A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND SLEET BUT A FAIRLY QUICK TRANSITION
TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED BY MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING
DRIZZLE WILL BECOME THE MAIN P-TYPE BY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW
HUNDREDTHS TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCRETION EXPECTED.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SLIPPERY TRAVEL
TO DEVELOP FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING COMMUTE. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TO COVER THIS THREAT.

WARMER AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER IN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. RAIN
WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN WILL LIKELY HOLD ON LONGER FOR THE FAR NORTH AND WEST
SUBURBS OF BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON DC INTO THE EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD AIR MAY BE LINGERING INTO THE ELY EVNG N OF THE PTMC RIVER
TUE EVNG...OTRW WAA WL MAKE ITS WAY TO THE SFC. SHUD HV WARMING
TEMPS THRUT THE NGT. THEREFORE...WL BE RUNNING W/ A PTYPE OF RA...
W/ JUST A LITTLE LINGERING FZRA TO THE N.

THE MAIN PTYPE ISSUE FOR OVNGT TUE INTO WED WL BE RA. A SOLID
PLUME OF MSTR WL BE CHANNELED EWD FM THE WRN GLFMEX AHD OF AN
APPROACHING CDFNT. AM GOING W/ QPF ARND A HALF INCH...CLOSER TO
AN INCH FOR THE MTNS. MORE ON THIS IN THE HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

CFP WL COME LT IN THE DAY. WE WL BE STARTING FM A BASE IN THE UPR
40S NORTH TO UPR 50S SOUTH /BLENDED NEWER GDNC INTO THE ENSEMBLE
MAXT FCST/ SO EVEN AFTER FROPA...PCPN WL STILL BE RAIN. PROBLEM
IS...SFC TEMPS WL KEEP DROPPING THRU THE AFTN-EVNG WHILE THE PLUME
OF MSTR CONTS TO STREAM EWD ABV IT. THAT WUD SUPPORT PCPN CHGG
OVER TO SNW /OR PERHAPS SLEET/ WED NGT. QSTNS REVOLVE ARND THE
TIMING OF THAT TRANSITION ALONG W/ HOW MUCH MSTR WL BE AVBL AT
THAT TIME. AN UPR JET WL BE SUPPORTIVE OF PCPN GENERATION...AS WE
WL BE IN THE RRQ. AT THIS TIME...IT SEEMS APPARENT THAT THERE WL
BE MEASURABLE SNOW WED NGT INTO THU MRNG. IT CUD BE MORE THAN
JUST A LTL. HV THIS IN THE HWO ATTM. REFER TO OUR PROBABILISTIC
DATA VIA OUR WEBSITE FOR THE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES.

HV SNOW TAPERING OFF DURING THE DAY ON THU. DOUBT THERE WL BE MUCH
OF A TEMP RISE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTER A FEW BUSY WX DAYS...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS WITH CLEARING SKIES...LEADING
TO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES...
ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS SNOW COVER FROM THE THURSDAY SYSTEM. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR FREEZING FRIDAY DESPITE THE RETURN
OF WAA. AFTER ANOTHER COLD NIGHT FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
REBOUND SATURDAY AND EVEN MORE SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THEY WILL REMAIN
IN THE MID/UPPER 40S...WHICH IS BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

AT THIS POINT LEFT WEEKEND PRECIP FREE. BUT...RECENT MODEL RUNS
APPEAR TO HAVE A SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE DEEP SOUTH AND PERHAPS
BEGINNING TO IMPACT OUR AREA ON SUNDAY. WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY BEFORE INTRODUCING POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE
IN FROM WEST TO EAST BY MID TO LATE MORNING. HAVE INTRODUCED LIGHT
SNOW/SLEET MIXTURE AT MOST TERMINALS AROUND MIDDAY BUT EXPECT
FREEZING RAIN TO BECOME THE MAIN P-TYPE BY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE PRECIPITATION MAY CHANGE TO ALL RAIN CENTRAL AND SOUTH WITH
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE HOLDING ON LONGER NEAR KBWI.

MVFR TO IFR FLGT CONDS SHUD BE WIDESPREAD TUE NGT THRU THU. MAINLY
RA TUE NGT AND WED. SNOW SHUD BE THE PRIMARY PTYPE WED NGT INTO
THU. DEPENDING UPON TIMING...LIFR PSBL.

AT THIS POINT NOT EXPECTING ANY AVIATION CONCERNS FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HV DIMINISHED ON THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS COULD
DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED IN FROZEN
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT BEFORE WINDS SUBSIDE. AFTER THIS NOT
EXPECTING MARINE CONCERNS THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING THE POTENTIAL OF MIDWEEK FLOODING IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. LIQUID PRECIP FCST FROM WPC PUTS MUCH OF
THE FCST AREA IN A MINIMA FOR AMOUNTS...AROUND AN INCH OR LESS IN
MANY AREAS. WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 50S ON
WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME...POSSIBLY A LOT OF...MELTING OF THE
EXISTING SNOWPACK...WHICH COMPUTER MODELS AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
CONTAINS ANYWHERE FROM 3/4 INCH TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENT. THIS COMBINATION MAY LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING AS THE RAIN
FALLS ON WEDNESDAY.

ALTHOUGH RIVER ICE IS NOT ESPECIALLY THICK...IT WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL ROLE IN AFFECTING RUNOFF. ALSO...PLOWED SNOW
IS LIKELY COVERING SOME OF THE DRAINS OUT THERE...WHICH COULD CAUSE
MORE POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING THAN WOULD OTHERWISE USUALLY BE
EXPECTED.

WORTH NOTING...CURRENT FORECAST RAIN TOTALS ARE ON THE LOWER SIDE OF
THE ENSEMBLE SUITES OF THE GEFS AND SREF. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE FORECAST FOR UPDATES AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR DCZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR MDZ501-502.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR MDZ004>006-011-013-014-503>508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR MDZ003.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR MDZ016>018.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR VAZ503-504.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR VAZ025>031-036>040-050-051-501-502-507-
     508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR VAZ053-054-505-506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR VAZ052-055>057.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR WVZ050-055-501>506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR WVZ051>053.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...



000
FXUS61 KLWX 030704
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
204 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY
LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
JUST A QUICK HEADLINE UPDATE THAT THE START TIME OF THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY WAS DELAYED UNTIL 10 AM FOR THE SHENANDOAH
VALLEY...WRN MD...AND N-CNTRL VA AND UNTIL NOON FOR THE GREATER
BALTIMORE-WASHINGTON METRO AND SRN MD. END TIMES REMAIN THE
SAME. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS PRECIP COMING IN RATHER LATER THAN THE
PREVIOUS HEADLINE SEQUENCE WOULD SUGGEST. THE MORNING COMMUTE
LOOKS UNAFFECTED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE THREAT IS FOCUSED ON
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING RUSH.

PREVIOUS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ONIGHT.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF QUICKLY...DROPPING TO THE
LOWER 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT TEENS OVER THE NORMALLY COLDER
AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES. LIGHT PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT THEN SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA MID TO LATE MORNING.

PROFILES INDICATE THERE IS ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR PRECIPITATION TO
START AS A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND SLEET BUT A FAIRLY QUICK TRANSITION
TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED BY MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING
DRIZZLE WILL BECOME THE MAIN P-TYPE BY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW
HUNDREDTHS TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCRETION EXPECTED.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SLIPPERY TRAVEL
TO DEVELOP FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING COMMUTE. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TO COVER THIS THREAT.

WARMER AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER IN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. RAIN
WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN WILL LIKELY HOLD ON LONGER FOR THE FAR NORTH AND WEST
SUBURBS OF BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON DC INTO THE EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD AIR MAY BE LINGERING INTO THE ELY EVNG N OF THE PTMC RIVER
TUE EVNG...OTRW WAA WL MAKE ITS WAY TO THE SFC. SHUD HV WARMING
TEMPS THRUT THE NGT. THEREFORE...WL BE RUNNING W/ A PTYPE OF RA...
W/ JUST A LITTLE LINGERING FZRA TO THE N.

THE MAIN PTYPE ISSUE FOR OVNGT TUE INTO WED WL BE RA. A SOLID
PLUME OF MSTR WL BE CHANNELED EWD FM THE WRN GLFMEX AHD OF AN
APPROACHING CDFNT. AM GOING W/ QPF ARND A HALF INCH...CLOSER TO
AN INCH FOR THE MTNS. MORE ON THIS IN THE HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

CFP WL COME LT IN THE DAY. WE WL BE STARTING FM A BASE IN THE UPR
40S NORTH TO UPR 50S SOUTH /BLENDED NEWER GDNC INTO THE ENSEMBLE
MAXT FCST/ SO EVEN AFTER FROPA...PCPN WL STILL BE RAIN. PROBLEM
IS...SFC TEMPS WL KEEP DROPPING THRU THE AFTN-EVNG WHILE THE PLUME
OF MSTR CONTS TO STREAM EWD ABV IT. THAT WUD SUPPORT PCPN CHGG
OVER TO SNW /OR PERHAPS SLEET/ WED NGT. QSTNS REVOLVE ARND THE
TIMING OF THAT TRANSITION ALONG W/ HOW MUCH MSTR WL BE AVBL AT
THAT TIME. AN UPR JET WL BE SUPPORTIVE OF PCPN GENERATION...AS WE
WL BE IN THE RRQ. AT THIS TIME...IT SEEMS APPARENT THAT THERE WL
BE MEASURABLE SNOW WED NGT INTO THU MRNG. IT CUD BE MORE THAN
JUST A LTL. HV THIS IN THE HWO ATTM. REFER TO OUR PROBABILISTIC
DATA VIA OUR WEBSITE FOR THE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES.

HV SNOW TAPERING OFF DURING THE DAY ON THU. DOUBT THERE WL BE MUCH
OF A TEMP RISE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTER A FEW BUSY WX DAYS...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS WITH CLEARING SKIES...LEADING
TO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES...
ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS SNOW COVER FROM THE THURSDAY SYSTEM. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR FREEZING FRIDAY DESPITE THE RETURN
OF WAA. AFTER ANOTHER COLD NIGHT FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
REBOUND SATURDAY AND EVEN MORE SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THEY WILL REMAIN
IN THE MID/UPPER 40S...WHICH IS BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

AT THIS POINT LEFT WEEKEND PRECIP FREE. BUT...RECENT MODEL RUNS
APPEAR TO HAVE A SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE DEEP SOUTH AND PERHAPS
BEGINNING TO IMPACT OUR AREA ON SUNDAY. WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY BEFORE INTRODUCING POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE
IN FROM WEST TO EAST BY MID TO LATE MORNING. HAVE INTRODUCED LIGHT
SNOW/SLEET MIXTURE AT MOST TERMINALS AROUND MIDDAY BUT EXPECT
FREEZING RAIN TO BECOME THE MAIN P-TYPE BY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE PRECIPITATION MAY CHANGE TO ALL RAIN CENTRAL AND SOUTH WITH
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE HOLDING ON LONGER NEAR KBWI.

MVFR TO IFR FLGT CONDS SHUD BE WIDESPREAD TUE NGT THRU THU. MAINLY
RA TUE NGT AND WED. SNOW SHUD BE THE PRIMARY PTYPE WED NGT INTO
THU. DEPENDING UPON TIMING...LIFR PSBL.

AT THIS POINT NOT EXPECTING ANY AVIATION CONCERNS FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HV DIMINISHED ON THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS COULD
DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED IN FROZEN
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT BEFORE WINDS SUBSIDE. AFTER THIS NOT
EXPECTING MARINE CONCERNS THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING THE POTENTIAL OF MIDWEEK FLOODING IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. LIQUID PRECIP FCST FROM WPC PUTS MUCH OF
THE FCST AREA IN A MINIMA FOR AMOUNTS...AROUND AN INCH OR LESS IN
MANY AREAS. WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 50S ON
WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME...POSSIBLY A LOT OF...MELTING OF THE
EXISTING SNOWPACK...WHICH COMPUTER MODELS AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
CONTAINS ANYWHERE FROM 3/4 INCH TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENT. THIS COMBINATION MAY LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING AS THE RAIN
FALLS ON WEDNESDAY.

ALTHOUGH RIVER ICE IS NOT ESPECIALLY THICK...IT WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL ROLE IN AFFECTING RUNOFF. ALSO...PLOWED SNOW
IS LIKELY COVERING SOME OF THE DRAINS OUT THERE...WHICH COULD CAUSE
MORE POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING THAN WOULD OTHERWISE USUALLY BE
EXPECTED.

WORTH NOTING...CURRENT FORECAST RAIN TOTALS ARE ON THE LOWER SIDE OF
THE ENSEMBLE SUITES OF THE GEFS AND SREF. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE FORECAST FOR UPDATES AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR DCZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR MDZ501-502.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR MDZ004>006-011-013-014-503>508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR MDZ003.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR MDZ016>018.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR VAZ503-504.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR VAZ025>031-036>040-050-051-501-502-507-
     508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR VAZ053-054-505-506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR VAZ052-055>057.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR WVZ050-055-501>506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR WVZ051>053.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KLWX 030704
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
204 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY
LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
JUST A QUICK HEADLINE UPDATE THAT THE START TIME OF THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY WAS DELAYED UNTIL 10 AM FOR THE SHENANDOAH
VALLEY...WRN MD...AND N-CNTRL VA AND UNTIL NOON FOR THE GREATER
BALTIMORE-WASHINGTON METRO AND SRN MD. END TIMES REMAIN THE
SAME. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS PRECIP COMING IN RATHER LATER THAN THE
PREVIOUS HEADLINE SEQUENCE WOULD SUGGEST. THE MORNING COMMUTE
LOOKS UNAFFECTED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE THREAT IS FOCUSED ON
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING RUSH.

PREVIOUS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ONIGHT.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF QUICKLY...DROPPING TO THE
LOWER 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT TEENS OVER THE NORMALLY COLDER
AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES. LIGHT PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT THEN SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA MID TO LATE MORNING.

PROFILES INDICATE THERE IS ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR PRECIPITATION TO
START AS A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND SLEET BUT A FAIRLY QUICK TRANSITION
TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED BY MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING
DRIZZLE WILL BECOME THE MAIN P-TYPE BY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW
HUNDREDTHS TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCRETION EXPECTED.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SLIPPERY TRAVEL
TO DEVELOP FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING COMMUTE. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TO COVER THIS THREAT.

WARMER AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER IN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. RAIN
WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN WILL LIKELY HOLD ON LONGER FOR THE FAR NORTH AND WEST
SUBURBS OF BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON DC INTO THE EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD AIR MAY BE LINGERING INTO THE ELY EVNG N OF THE PTMC RIVER
TUE EVNG...OTRW WAA WL MAKE ITS WAY TO THE SFC. SHUD HV WARMING
TEMPS THRUT THE NGT. THEREFORE...WL BE RUNNING W/ A PTYPE OF RA...
W/ JUST A LITTLE LINGERING FZRA TO THE N.

THE MAIN PTYPE ISSUE FOR OVNGT TUE INTO WED WL BE RA. A SOLID
PLUME OF MSTR WL BE CHANNELED EWD FM THE WRN GLFMEX AHD OF AN
APPROACHING CDFNT. AM GOING W/ QPF ARND A HALF INCH...CLOSER TO
AN INCH FOR THE MTNS. MORE ON THIS IN THE HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

CFP WL COME LT IN THE DAY. WE WL BE STARTING FM A BASE IN THE UPR
40S NORTH TO UPR 50S SOUTH /BLENDED NEWER GDNC INTO THE ENSEMBLE
MAXT FCST/ SO EVEN AFTER FROPA...PCPN WL STILL BE RAIN. PROBLEM
IS...SFC TEMPS WL KEEP DROPPING THRU THE AFTN-EVNG WHILE THE PLUME
OF MSTR CONTS TO STREAM EWD ABV IT. THAT WUD SUPPORT PCPN CHGG
OVER TO SNW /OR PERHAPS SLEET/ WED NGT. QSTNS REVOLVE ARND THE
TIMING OF THAT TRANSITION ALONG W/ HOW MUCH MSTR WL BE AVBL AT
THAT TIME. AN UPR JET WL BE SUPPORTIVE OF PCPN GENERATION...AS WE
WL BE IN THE RRQ. AT THIS TIME...IT SEEMS APPARENT THAT THERE WL
BE MEASURABLE SNOW WED NGT INTO THU MRNG. IT CUD BE MORE THAN
JUST A LTL. HV THIS IN THE HWO ATTM. REFER TO OUR PROBABILISTIC
DATA VIA OUR WEBSITE FOR THE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES.

HV SNOW TAPERING OFF DURING THE DAY ON THU. DOUBT THERE WL BE MUCH
OF A TEMP RISE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTER A FEW BUSY WX DAYS...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS WITH CLEARING SKIES...LEADING
TO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES...
ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS SNOW COVER FROM THE THURSDAY SYSTEM. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR FREEZING FRIDAY DESPITE THE RETURN
OF WAA. AFTER ANOTHER COLD NIGHT FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
REBOUND SATURDAY AND EVEN MORE SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THEY WILL REMAIN
IN THE MID/UPPER 40S...WHICH IS BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

AT THIS POINT LEFT WEEKEND PRECIP FREE. BUT...RECENT MODEL RUNS
APPEAR TO HAVE A SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE DEEP SOUTH AND PERHAPS
BEGINNING TO IMPACT OUR AREA ON SUNDAY. WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY BEFORE INTRODUCING POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE
IN FROM WEST TO EAST BY MID TO LATE MORNING. HAVE INTRODUCED LIGHT
SNOW/SLEET MIXTURE AT MOST TERMINALS AROUND MIDDAY BUT EXPECT
FREEZING RAIN TO BECOME THE MAIN P-TYPE BY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE PRECIPITATION MAY CHANGE TO ALL RAIN CENTRAL AND SOUTH WITH
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE HOLDING ON LONGER NEAR KBWI.

MVFR TO IFR FLGT CONDS SHUD BE WIDESPREAD TUE NGT THRU THU. MAINLY
RA TUE NGT AND WED. SNOW SHUD BE THE PRIMARY PTYPE WED NGT INTO
THU. DEPENDING UPON TIMING...LIFR PSBL.

AT THIS POINT NOT EXPECTING ANY AVIATION CONCERNS FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HV DIMINISHED ON THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS COULD
DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED IN FROZEN
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT BEFORE WINDS SUBSIDE. AFTER THIS NOT
EXPECTING MARINE CONCERNS THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING THE POTENTIAL OF MIDWEEK FLOODING IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. LIQUID PRECIP FCST FROM WPC PUTS MUCH OF
THE FCST AREA IN A MINIMA FOR AMOUNTS...AROUND AN INCH OR LESS IN
MANY AREAS. WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 50S ON
WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME...POSSIBLY A LOT OF...MELTING OF THE
EXISTING SNOWPACK...WHICH COMPUTER MODELS AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
CONTAINS ANYWHERE FROM 3/4 INCH TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENT. THIS COMBINATION MAY LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING AS THE RAIN
FALLS ON WEDNESDAY.

ALTHOUGH RIVER ICE IS NOT ESPECIALLY THICK...IT WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL ROLE IN AFFECTING RUNOFF. ALSO...PLOWED SNOW
IS LIKELY COVERING SOME OF THE DRAINS OUT THERE...WHICH COULD CAUSE
MORE POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING THAN WOULD OTHERWISE USUALLY BE
EXPECTED.

WORTH NOTING...CURRENT FORECAST RAIN TOTALS ARE ON THE LOWER SIDE OF
THE ENSEMBLE SUITES OF THE GEFS AND SREF. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE FORECAST FOR UPDATES AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR DCZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR MDZ501-502.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR MDZ004>006-011-013-014-503>508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR MDZ003.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR MDZ016>018.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR VAZ503-504.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR VAZ025>031-036>040-050-051-501-502-507-
     508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR VAZ053-054-505-506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR VAZ052-055>057.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR WVZ050-055-501>506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR WVZ051>053.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...



000
FXUS61 KLWX 030704
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
204 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY
LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
JUST A QUICK HEADLINE UPDATE THAT THE START TIME OF THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY WAS DELAYED UNTIL 10 AM FOR THE SHENANDOAH
VALLEY...WRN MD...AND N-CNTRL VA AND UNTIL NOON FOR THE GREATER
BALTIMORE-WASHINGTON METRO AND SRN MD. END TIMES REMAIN THE
SAME. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS PRECIP COMING IN RATHER LATER THAN THE
PREVIOUS HEADLINE SEQUENCE WOULD SUGGEST. THE MORNING COMMUTE
LOOKS UNAFFECTED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE THREAT IS FOCUSED ON
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING RUSH.

PREVIOUS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ONIGHT.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF QUICKLY...DROPPING TO THE
LOWER 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT TEENS OVER THE NORMALLY COLDER
AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES. LIGHT PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT THEN SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA MID TO LATE MORNING.

PROFILES INDICATE THERE IS ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR PRECIPITATION TO
START AS A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND SLEET BUT A FAIRLY QUICK TRANSITION
TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED BY MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING
DRIZZLE WILL BECOME THE MAIN P-TYPE BY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW
HUNDREDTHS TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCRETION EXPECTED.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SLIPPERY TRAVEL
TO DEVELOP FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING COMMUTE. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TO COVER THIS THREAT.

WARMER AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER IN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. RAIN
WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN WILL LIKELY HOLD ON LONGER FOR THE FAR NORTH AND WEST
SUBURBS OF BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON DC INTO THE EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD AIR MAY BE LINGERING INTO THE ELY EVNG N OF THE PTMC RIVER
TUE EVNG...OTRW WAA WL MAKE ITS WAY TO THE SFC. SHUD HV WARMING
TEMPS THRUT THE NGT. THEREFORE...WL BE RUNNING W/ A PTYPE OF RA...
W/ JUST A LITTLE LINGERING FZRA TO THE N.

THE MAIN PTYPE ISSUE FOR OVNGT TUE INTO WED WL BE RA. A SOLID
PLUME OF MSTR WL BE CHANNELED EWD FM THE WRN GLFMEX AHD OF AN
APPROACHING CDFNT. AM GOING W/ QPF ARND A HALF INCH...CLOSER TO
AN INCH FOR THE MTNS. MORE ON THIS IN THE HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

CFP WL COME LT IN THE DAY. WE WL BE STARTING FM A BASE IN THE UPR
40S NORTH TO UPR 50S SOUTH /BLENDED NEWER GDNC INTO THE ENSEMBLE
MAXT FCST/ SO EVEN AFTER FROPA...PCPN WL STILL BE RAIN. PROBLEM
IS...SFC TEMPS WL KEEP DROPPING THRU THE AFTN-EVNG WHILE THE PLUME
OF MSTR CONTS TO STREAM EWD ABV IT. THAT WUD SUPPORT PCPN CHGG
OVER TO SNW /OR PERHAPS SLEET/ WED NGT. QSTNS REVOLVE ARND THE
TIMING OF THAT TRANSITION ALONG W/ HOW MUCH MSTR WL BE AVBL AT
THAT TIME. AN UPR JET WL BE SUPPORTIVE OF PCPN GENERATION...AS WE
WL BE IN THE RRQ. AT THIS TIME...IT SEEMS APPARENT THAT THERE WL
BE MEASURABLE SNOW WED NGT INTO THU MRNG. IT CUD BE MORE THAN
JUST A LTL. HV THIS IN THE HWO ATTM. REFER TO OUR PROBABILISTIC
DATA VIA OUR WEBSITE FOR THE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES.

HV SNOW TAPERING OFF DURING THE DAY ON THU. DOUBT THERE WL BE MUCH
OF A TEMP RISE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTER A FEW BUSY WX DAYS...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS WITH CLEARING SKIES...LEADING
TO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES...
ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS SNOW COVER FROM THE THURSDAY SYSTEM. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR FREEZING FRIDAY DESPITE THE RETURN
OF WAA. AFTER ANOTHER COLD NIGHT FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
REBOUND SATURDAY AND EVEN MORE SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THEY WILL REMAIN
IN THE MID/UPPER 40S...WHICH IS BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

AT THIS POINT LEFT WEEKEND PRECIP FREE. BUT...RECENT MODEL RUNS
APPEAR TO HAVE A SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE DEEP SOUTH AND PERHAPS
BEGINNING TO IMPACT OUR AREA ON SUNDAY. WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY BEFORE INTRODUCING POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE
IN FROM WEST TO EAST BY MID TO LATE MORNING. HAVE INTRODUCED LIGHT
SNOW/SLEET MIXTURE AT MOST TERMINALS AROUND MIDDAY BUT EXPECT
FREEZING RAIN TO BECOME THE MAIN P-TYPE BY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE PRECIPITATION MAY CHANGE TO ALL RAIN CENTRAL AND SOUTH WITH
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE HOLDING ON LONGER NEAR KBWI.

MVFR TO IFR FLGT CONDS SHUD BE WIDESPREAD TUE NGT THRU THU. MAINLY
RA TUE NGT AND WED. SNOW SHUD BE THE PRIMARY PTYPE WED NGT INTO
THU. DEPENDING UPON TIMING...LIFR PSBL.

AT THIS POINT NOT EXPECTING ANY AVIATION CONCERNS FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HV DIMINISHED ON THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS COULD
DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED IN FROZEN
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT BEFORE WINDS SUBSIDE. AFTER THIS NOT
EXPECTING MARINE CONCERNS THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING THE POTENTIAL OF MIDWEEK FLOODING IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. LIQUID PRECIP FCST FROM WPC PUTS MUCH OF
THE FCST AREA IN A MINIMA FOR AMOUNTS...AROUND AN INCH OR LESS IN
MANY AREAS. WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 50S ON
WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME...POSSIBLY A LOT OF...MELTING OF THE
EXISTING SNOWPACK...WHICH COMPUTER MODELS AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
CONTAINS ANYWHERE FROM 3/4 INCH TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENT. THIS COMBINATION MAY LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING AS THE RAIN
FALLS ON WEDNESDAY.

ALTHOUGH RIVER ICE IS NOT ESPECIALLY THICK...IT WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL ROLE IN AFFECTING RUNOFF. ALSO...PLOWED SNOW
IS LIKELY COVERING SOME OF THE DRAINS OUT THERE...WHICH COULD CAUSE
MORE POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING THAN WOULD OTHERWISE USUALLY BE
EXPECTED.

WORTH NOTING...CURRENT FORECAST RAIN TOTALS ARE ON THE LOWER SIDE OF
THE ENSEMBLE SUITES OF THE GEFS AND SREF. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE FORECAST FOR UPDATES AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR DCZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR MDZ501-502.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR MDZ004>006-011-013-014-503>508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR MDZ003.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR MDZ016>018.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR VAZ503-504.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR VAZ025>031-036>040-050-051-501-502-507-
     508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR VAZ053-054-505-506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR VAZ052-055>057.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR WVZ050-055-501>506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR WVZ051>053.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030556
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1256 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS REVEALS ~1033 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE ERN GREAT LAKES...RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLC REGION. FLOW
ALOFT IS FROM THE WNW...WELL OUT AHEAD OF BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE WRN
CONUS. SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR ACRS N/NE SECTIONS OF THE CWA...WHILE
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS STREAMING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA. SEEING SOME LOWER CLOUDS/BKN CIGS IN NC AS WELL. FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...AS UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MID MS VALLEY ADVANCES
EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE INCREASING CLOUDS
INTO THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE ADJUSTED MIN TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES ACRS
THE SOUTH DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER...WHILE GENLY KEEPING MINS UNTOUCHED
FARTHER N/NE WHERE SKIES STAY MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH MOST OF THE
NIGHT. EXPECT MINS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S OVER NE NC/FAR
SOUTHERN VA...TO THE LOWER 20S FROM THE NRN NECK TO THE MD ERN
SHORE. LATEST 00Z NAM12 SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY SHOWS SOME LIGHT
RETURNS ENTERING SW ZONES BY 12Z...BUT THIS WOULD JUST BE VIRGA
OVER THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE SO NO CHC FOR PRECIP THROUGH 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CENTER OF SFC HI PRES SLOLY EXITS TO THE E ON TUE...BUT LO LVL CAD
RMNS OVR THE FA. CLDNS WILL CONT TO INCRS TUE MRNG LIMITING TEMP
RISE. SOME LGT PCPN MAY BREAKOUT...ESP FAR WNW AREAS...DURING THE
MIDDAY HRS...THEN BETTER COVERAGE OF PCPN ACRS FA XPCD BY MID/LT
AFTN. MDL SOUNDINGS CONT TO HINT AT PTNTL FOR BRIEF PD OF FZRA OVR
FAR NNW AREAS AS TEMPS STRUGGLE TO REACH 32F THROUGH EARLY AFTN.
CONFIDENCE RMNS LO ATTM...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WINTER WX
ADVISORY. OTRW...P-TYPE TO BE RA OVR THE RGN TUE AFTN/EVE. HI
TEMPS TO BE REACHED LT IN THE DAY...RANGING FM THE M/U30S NW-CNTRL
LOCATIONS TO L40S SE.

WARM FRONT TO LIFT NE THROUGH THE FA TUE NGT. BEST MOISTURE AND
UVM ACRS CNTRL/NRN PORTIONS OF FA...THUS THE HIGHEST POPS...W/
WITH CHC POPS LIMITED TO SRN VA/NE NC. BULK OF THE RA LIFTS TO NRN
PORTION BY LT AT NGT. LO TEMPS LIKELY ARND 00Z/04 WITH RISING TEMPS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPS BY 12Z/04 WED RISE INTO THE U40S- M50S.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRONG SSW FLOW.
THERE RMN TIMING ISSUES W/ THE APPROACHING CDFNT FM THE NNW...AS
12Z/02 NAM ABOUT 12HRS SLOWER THAN THE 12Z/02 GFS. AGAIN...THE
12Z/02 ECMWF SEEMS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS
(40-60%) BY AFTN ACRS NRN TIER OF FA...W/ SLGT CHC TO CHC (20-40%)
TO THE S. FOR NOW...LEAVING OUT ANY MENTION OF T ACRS SRN VA/NE
NC...SINCE IT APRS MOST OF MOISTURE CONFINED TO W/ AND BEHIND THE
FNT. HI TEMPS FM THE U50S/L60S N TO L70S IN FAR SE VA/NE NC.

JUST ONE YEAR AGO...MARCH 2ND-3RD...WENT FM 60S TO L70S (THE 2ND)
TO A FEW INCHES OF SN (ON THE 3RD). THIS MAY OCCUR AGN THIS WK
(WED-THU).

FCST CHALLENGES CONT WED NGT THROUGH THU AS CDFNT SETTLES SSE
THROUGH THE FA...AND ANOTHER AREA OF ARCTIC SFC HI PRES BUILDS TWD
THE MS/OH VLYS. WILL LEAN TWD THE FASTER ARRIVAL OF COLDER SFC
AIR FM THE NNW (GFS/ECMWF) BY LT WED NGT AND CONTG ON THU. THE
MDLS EACH HINT AT WK SFC LO PRES TRACKING THROUGH NC AS S/W ALOFT
(IN FAST SWLY FLO) IS SHEARED AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE RGN. ALL
THIS LEADS TO A TRANSITION (WRT P-TYPE) LT WED/THU. RA...BECOMES
MIXED W/ IP-CHANGING TO SN/IP THEN ENDING AS SN FM NNW TO SE ACRS
THE FA (LASTLY ACRS NE NC BY MID OR LT AFTN THU). TIMING THOSE
TRANSITIONS AT THIS POINT VERY DIFFICULT...THOUGH CURRENTLY EXPECT
A LEAST LGT SN ACCUMS FOR AREAS N OF THE NC/VA BORDER BEFORE THE
DAY ENDS THU (T-2 INCHES S...1-4 INCHES N (HIGHEST PTNTTLY FM
RIC-SBY)). ALONG W/ THE TRANSITION TO WINTRY PCPN...GUSTY NNE WNDS
WILL BE PUSHING COLDER AIR INTO THE RGN. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM ARND
30F N TO THE L40S FAR S. TEMPS THU STEADY OR FALLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED IN WAKE OF THURS COLD FRONT...BUT
MODERATING TEMPS THRU THE WEEKEND WILL BRING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE THURS NIGHT WITH THE NRN PORTION OF THE
FRONT PUSHING WELL OFFSHORE. SRN PORTION PUSHES SWD OVER THE GULF
STATES/NRN GULF...STALLING IN WLY FLOW ALOFT. ENDED CHANCE POPS NEAR
THE COAST AT MIDNIGHT...WITH DRYING/CLEARING CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.
1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FRI...RESULTING
IN ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. H85
TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND -12C (-2 STD DEV)...WITH THICKNESSES
YIELDING TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI
NIGHT WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING MODERATE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.
TEMPS FORECAST IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS FRI NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. THEREAFTER...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE THANKS
TO DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW OVER THE WRN CONUS. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
AGAIN BE CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC FLOW (TROUGHING) OVER THE ERN
CONUS AND RIDGING (RETURN TO A +PNA) OVER THE WRN CONUS. MODELS
STRUGGLING WITH A NUMBER OF CANADIAN IMPULSES SET TO IMPACT THE NE
STATES...BUT ALSO SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE BAJA THIS WEEKEND.
ECMWF RATHER ROBUST WITH THIS ENERGY...TRANSLATING ACROSS NRN MEXICO
AND THE SRN PLAINS SAT NIGHT-SUN...POSSIBLY PHASING WITH NRN STREAM
ENERGY OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS SOLUTION WOULD LIFT THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF NWD LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
RAIN TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS SHEARS THE
ENERGY...KEEPING IT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...KEEPING THE LOCAL
AREA DRY. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD A WPC/ENSEMBLE APPROACH WHICH
KEEPS THE SRN STREAM WAVE FLAT AND THE LOCAL AREA DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND..WITH MODERATING TEMPS. HIGHS SAT FORECAST IN THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-MID 40S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS SUN IN THE
MID 50S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 40S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PASS OVER THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WITH A LIGHT NNE WIND DUE TO 1030MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER
PA. ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE ECG...WHICH WILL HAVE A PERIOD OF 5KFT
CIGS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF -RA IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY AFTER 21Z.
CIGS LOWER TO 4-5KFT THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH A LIGHT ESE WIND.
THERE IS AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
THE CHC OF RA INCREASES LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RA
OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING. A TRANSITION
TO A MIX AND EVENTUALLY SN SHOULD BEGIN AT SBY AFTER 06Z...WITH
THE TRANSITION OCCURRING AT RIC CLOSER TO 12Z. FARTHER SE...THE
CHANGE SHOULD OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY. ADDITIONALLY...A GUSTY
NORTHERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK/SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTH OF THE WATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE BECOME NLY...BUT WEAK LOW-LEVEL CAA HAS
RESULTED IN SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT IN THE BAY/RIVER/SOUND AND
AOB 20 KT COASTAL WATERS. THIS AS WINDS A FEW THOUSAND FT ALOFT
RANGE FROM 30-35KT. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. HAVE
DROPPED SCA HEADLINES ALL WATER EXPECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH
OF THE VA/NC BORDER AS BETTER FETCH WILL RESULT IN 4-5 FT SEAS
TONIGHT. HEADLINES RUN THRU LATE TONIGHT. ~1030+MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WATER TONIGHT...SLIDING OFFSHORE TUES. FLOW BECOMES
SELY BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH AOB 15 KT. WARM FRONT PROGGED TO LIFT
OVER THE WATER LATE TUES NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SWLY
FLOW INCREASES LATE TUES NIGHT...BUT SO DOES WAA OVER VERY COLD
WATER. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT MAYBE ONLY A FEW
GUSTS TO 20 KT LATE TUES NIGHT-EARLY WEDS MORNING IN THE BAY. SEAS
BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT 20 NM OUT LATE TUES THRU WEDS...BEFORE
SUBSIDING WEDS NIGHT AOB 4 FT. FRONT IS SLOW TO CROSS THE WATER
WEDS-WEDS NIGHT. CAA SURGES INTO THE REGION LATE WEDS
NIGHT...CONTINUING THRU THURS NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH A NLY WIND. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT (HIGHEST IN THE SRN WATERS)
THURS...SUBSIDING FRI MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRI INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...SAM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030556
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1256 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS REVEALS ~1033 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE ERN GREAT LAKES...RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLC REGION. FLOW
ALOFT IS FROM THE WNW...WELL OUT AHEAD OF BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE WRN
CONUS. SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR ACRS N/NE SECTIONS OF THE CWA...WHILE
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS STREAMING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA. SEEING SOME LOWER CLOUDS/BKN CIGS IN NC AS WELL. FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...AS UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MID MS VALLEY ADVANCES
EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE INCREASING CLOUDS
INTO THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE ADJUSTED MIN TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES ACRS
THE SOUTH DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER...WHILE GENLY KEEPING MINS UNTOUCHED
FARTHER N/NE WHERE SKIES STAY MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH MOST OF THE
NIGHT. EXPECT MINS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S OVER NE NC/FAR
SOUTHERN VA...TO THE LOWER 20S FROM THE NRN NECK TO THE MD ERN
SHORE. LATEST 00Z NAM12 SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY SHOWS SOME LIGHT
RETURNS ENTERING SW ZONES BY 12Z...BUT THIS WOULD JUST BE VIRGA
OVER THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE SO NO CHC FOR PRECIP THROUGH 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CENTER OF SFC HI PRES SLOLY EXITS TO THE E ON TUE...BUT LO LVL CAD
RMNS OVR THE FA. CLDNS WILL CONT TO INCRS TUE MRNG LIMITING TEMP
RISE. SOME LGT PCPN MAY BREAKOUT...ESP FAR WNW AREAS...DURING THE
MIDDAY HRS...THEN BETTER COVERAGE OF PCPN ACRS FA XPCD BY MID/LT
AFTN. MDL SOUNDINGS CONT TO HINT AT PTNTL FOR BRIEF PD OF FZRA OVR
FAR NNW AREAS AS TEMPS STRUGGLE TO REACH 32F THROUGH EARLY AFTN.
CONFIDENCE RMNS LO ATTM...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WINTER WX
ADVISORY. OTRW...P-TYPE TO BE RA OVR THE RGN TUE AFTN/EVE. HI
TEMPS TO BE REACHED LT IN THE DAY...RANGING FM THE M/U30S NW-CNTRL
LOCATIONS TO L40S SE.

WARM FRONT TO LIFT NE THROUGH THE FA TUE NGT. BEST MOISTURE AND
UVM ACRS CNTRL/NRN PORTIONS OF FA...THUS THE HIGHEST POPS...W/
WITH CHC POPS LIMITED TO SRN VA/NE NC. BULK OF THE RA LIFTS TO NRN
PORTION BY LT AT NGT. LO TEMPS LIKELY ARND 00Z/04 WITH RISING TEMPS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPS BY 12Z/04 WED RISE INTO THE U40S- M50S.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRONG SSW FLOW.
THERE RMN TIMING ISSUES W/ THE APPROACHING CDFNT FM THE NNW...AS
12Z/02 NAM ABOUT 12HRS SLOWER THAN THE 12Z/02 GFS. AGAIN...THE
12Z/02 ECMWF SEEMS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS
(40-60%) BY AFTN ACRS NRN TIER OF FA...W/ SLGT CHC TO CHC (20-40%)
TO THE S. FOR NOW...LEAVING OUT ANY MENTION OF T ACRS SRN VA/NE
NC...SINCE IT APRS MOST OF MOISTURE CONFINED TO W/ AND BEHIND THE
FNT. HI TEMPS FM THE U50S/L60S N TO L70S IN FAR SE VA/NE NC.

JUST ONE YEAR AGO...MARCH 2ND-3RD...WENT FM 60S TO L70S (THE 2ND)
TO A FEW INCHES OF SN (ON THE 3RD). THIS MAY OCCUR AGN THIS WK
(WED-THU).

FCST CHALLENGES CONT WED NGT THROUGH THU AS CDFNT SETTLES SSE
THROUGH THE FA...AND ANOTHER AREA OF ARCTIC SFC HI PRES BUILDS TWD
THE MS/OH VLYS. WILL LEAN TWD THE FASTER ARRIVAL OF COLDER SFC
AIR FM THE NNW (GFS/ECMWF) BY LT WED NGT AND CONTG ON THU. THE
MDLS EACH HINT AT WK SFC LO PRES TRACKING THROUGH NC AS S/W ALOFT
(IN FAST SWLY FLO) IS SHEARED AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE RGN. ALL
THIS LEADS TO A TRANSITION (WRT P-TYPE) LT WED/THU. RA...BECOMES
MIXED W/ IP-CHANGING TO SN/IP THEN ENDING AS SN FM NNW TO SE ACRS
THE FA (LASTLY ACRS NE NC BY MID OR LT AFTN THU). TIMING THOSE
TRANSITIONS AT THIS POINT VERY DIFFICULT...THOUGH CURRENTLY EXPECT
A LEAST LGT SN ACCUMS FOR AREAS N OF THE NC/VA BORDER BEFORE THE
DAY ENDS THU (T-2 INCHES S...1-4 INCHES N (HIGHEST PTNTTLY FM
RIC-SBY)). ALONG W/ THE TRANSITION TO WINTRY PCPN...GUSTY NNE WNDS
WILL BE PUSHING COLDER AIR INTO THE RGN. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM ARND
30F N TO THE L40S FAR S. TEMPS THU STEADY OR FALLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED IN WAKE OF THURS COLD FRONT...BUT
MODERATING TEMPS THRU THE WEEKEND WILL BRING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE THURS NIGHT WITH THE NRN PORTION OF THE
FRONT PUSHING WELL OFFSHORE. SRN PORTION PUSHES SWD OVER THE GULF
STATES/NRN GULF...STALLING IN WLY FLOW ALOFT. ENDED CHANCE POPS NEAR
THE COAST AT MIDNIGHT...WITH DRYING/CLEARING CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.
1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FRI...RESULTING
IN ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. H85
TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND -12C (-2 STD DEV)...WITH THICKNESSES
YIELDING TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI
NIGHT WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING MODERATE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.
TEMPS FORECAST IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS FRI NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. THEREAFTER...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE THANKS
TO DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW OVER THE WRN CONUS. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
AGAIN BE CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC FLOW (TROUGHING) OVER THE ERN
CONUS AND RIDGING (RETURN TO A +PNA) OVER THE WRN CONUS. MODELS
STRUGGLING WITH A NUMBER OF CANADIAN IMPULSES SET TO IMPACT THE NE
STATES...BUT ALSO SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE BAJA THIS WEEKEND.
ECMWF RATHER ROBUST WITH THIS ENERGY...TRANSLATING ACROSS NRN MEXICO
AND THE SRN PLAINS SAT NIGHT-SUN...POSSIBLY PHASING WITH NRN STREAM
ENERGY OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS SOLUTION WOULD LIFT THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF NWD LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
RAIN TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS SHEARS THE
ENERGY...KEEPING IT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...KEEPING THE LOCAL
AREA DRY. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD A WPC/ENSEMBLE APPROACH WHICH
KEEPS THE SRN STREAM WAVE FLAT AND THE LOCAL AREA DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND..WITH MODERATING TEMPS. HIGHS SAT FORECAST IN THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-MID 40S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS SUN IN THE
MID 50S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 40S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PASS OVER THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WITH A LIGHT NNE WIND DUE TO 1030MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER
PA. ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE ECG...WHICH WILL HAVE A PERIOD OF 5KFT
CIGS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF -RA IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY AFTER 21Z.
CIGS LOWER TO 4-5KFT THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH A LIGHT ESE WIND.
THERE IS AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
THE CHC OF RA INCREASES LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RA
OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING. A TRANSITION
TO A MIX AND EVENTUALLY SN SHOULD BEGIN AT SBY AFTER 06Z...WITH
THE TRANSITION OCCURRING AT RIC CLOSER TO 12Z. FARTHER SE...THE
CHANGE SHOULD OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY. ADDITIONALLY...A GUSTY
NORTHERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK/SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTH OF THE WATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE BECOME NLY...BUT WEAK LOW-LEVEL CAA HAS
RESULTED IN SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT IN THE BAY/RIVER/SOUND AND
AOB 20 KT COASTAL WATERS. THIS AS WINDS A FEW THOUSAND FT ALOFT
RANGE FROM 30-35KT. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. HAVE
DROPPED SCA HEADLINES ALL WATER EXPECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH
OF THE VA/NC BORDER AS BETTER FETCH WILL RESULT IN 4-5 FT SEAS
TONIGHT. HEADLINES RUN THRU LATE TONIGHT. ~1030+MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WATER TONIGHT...SLIDING OFFSHORE TUES. FLOW BECOMES
SELY BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH AOB 15 KT. WARM FRONT PROGGED TO LIFT
OVER THE WATER LATE TUES NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SWLY
FLOW INCREASES LATE TUES NIGHT...BUT SO DOES WAA OVER VERY COLD
WATER. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT MAYBE ONLY A FEW
GUSTS TO 20 KT LATE TUES NIGHT-EARLY WEDS MORNING IN THE BAY. SEAS
BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT 20 NM OUT LATE TUES THRU WEDS...BEFORE
SUBSIDING WEDS NIGHT AOB 4 FT. FRONT IS SLOW TO CROSS THE WATER
WEDS-WEDS NIGHT. CAA SURGES INTO THE REGION LATE WEDS
NIGHT...CONTINUING THRU THURS NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH A NLY WIND. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT (HIGHEST IN THE SRN WATERS)
THURS...SUBSIDING FRI MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRI INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...SAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030556
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1256 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS REVEALS ~1033 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE ERN GREAT LAKES...RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLC REGION. FLOW
ALOFT IS FROM THE WNW...WELL OUT AHEAD OF BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE WRN
CONUS. SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR ACRS N/NE SECTIONS OF THE CWA...WHILE
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS STREAMING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA. SEEING SOME LOWER CLOUDS/BKN CIGS IN NC AS WELL. FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...AS UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MID MS VALLEY ADVANCES
EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE INCREASING CLOUDS
INTO THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE ADJUSTED MIN TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES ACRS
THE SOUTH DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER...WHILE GENLY KEEPING MINS UNTOUCHED
FARTHER N/NE WHERE SKIES STAY MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH MOST OF THE
NIGHT. EXPECT MINS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S OVER NE NC/FAR
SOUTHERN VA...TO THE LOWER 20S FROM THE NRN NECK TO THE MD ERN
SHORE. LATEST 00Z NAM12 SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY SHOWS SOME LIGHT
RETURNS ENTERING SW ZONES BY 12Z...BUT THIS WOULD JUST BE VIRGA
OVER THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE SO NO CHC FOR PRECIP THROUGH 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CENTER OF SFC HI PRES SLOLY EXITS TO THE E ON TUE...BUT LO LVL CAD
RMNS OVR THE FA. CLDNS WILL CONT TO INCRS TUE MRNG LIMITING TEMP
RISE. SOME LGT PCPN MAY BREAKOUT...ESP FAR WNW AREAS...DURING THE
MIDDAY HRS...THEN BETTER COVERAGE OF PCPN ACRS FA XPCD BY MID/LT
AFTN. MDL SOUNDINGS CONT TO HINT AT PTNTL FOR BRIEF PD OF FZRA OVR
FAR NNW AREAS AS TEMPS STRUGGLE TO REACH 32F THROUGH EARLY AFTN.
CONFIDENCE RMNS LO ATTM...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WINTER WX
ADVISORY. OTRW...P-TYPE TO BE RA OVR THE RGN TUE AFTN/EVE. HI
TEMPS TO BE REACHED LT IN THE DAY...RANGING FM THE M/U30S NW-CNTRL
LOCATIONS TO L40S SE.

WARM FRONT TO LIFT NE THROUGH THE FA TUE NGT. BEST MOISTURE AND
UVM ACRS CNTRL/NRN PORTIONS OF FA...THUS THE HIGHEST POPS...W/
WITH CHC POPS LIMITED TO SRN VA/NE NC. BULK OF THE RA LIFTS TO NRN
PORTION BY LT AT NGT. LO TEMPS LIKELY ARND 00Z/04 WITH RISING TEMPS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPS BY 12Z/04 WED RISE INTO THE U40S- M50S.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRONG SSW FLOW.
THERE RMN TIMING ISSUES W/ THE APPROACHING CDFNT FM THE NNW...AS
12Z/02 NAM ABOUT 12HRS SLOWER THAN THE 12Z/02 GFS. AGAIN...THE
12Z/02 ECMWF SEEMS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS
(40-60%) BY AFTN ACRS NRN TIER OF FA...W/ SLGT CHC TO CHC (20-40%)
TO THE S. FOR NOW...LEAVING OUT ANY MENTION OF T ACRS SRN VA/NE
NC...SINCE IT APRS MOST OF MOISTURE CONFINED TO W/ AND BEHIND THE
FNT. HI TEMPS FM THE U50S/L60S N TO L70S IN FAR SE VA/NE NC.

JUST ONE YEAR AGO...MARCH 2ND-3RD...WENT FM 60S TO L70S (THE 2ND)
TO A FEW INCHES OF SN (ON THE 3RD). THIS MAY OCCUR AGN THIS WK
(WED-THU).

FCST CHALLENGES CONT WED NGT THROUGH THU AS CDFNT SETTLES SSE
THROUGH THE FA...AND ANOTHER AREA OF ARCTIC SFC HI PRES BUILDS TWD
THE MS/OH VLYS. WILL LEAN TWD THE FASTER ARRIVAL OF COLDER SFC
AIR FM THE NNW (GFS/ECMWF) BY LT WED NGT AND CONTG ON THU. THE
MDLS EACH HINT AT WK SFC LO PRES TRACKING THROUGH NC AS S/W ALOFT
(IN FAST SWLY FLO) IS SHEARED AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE RGN. ALL
THIS LEADS TO A TRANSITION (WRT P-TYPE) LT WED/THU. RA...BECOMES
MIXED W/ IP-CHANGING TO SN/IP THEN ENDING AS SN FM NNW TO SE ACRS
THE FA (LASTLY ACRS NE NC BY MID OR LT AFTN THU). TIMING THOSE
TRANSITIONS AT THIS POINT VERY DIFFICULT...THOUGH CURRENTLY EXPECT
A LEAST LGT SN ACCUMS FOR AREAS N OF THE NC/VA BORDER BEFORE THE
DAY ENDS THU (T-2 INCHES S...1-4 INCHES N (HIGHEST PTNTTLY FM
RIC-SBY)). ALONG W/ THE TRANSITION TO WINTRY PCPN...GUSTY NNE WNDS
WILL BE PUSHING COLDER AIR INTO THE RGN. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM ARND
30F N TO THE L40S FAR S. TEMPS THU STEADY OR FALLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED IN WAKE OF THURS COLD FRONT...BUT
MODERATING TEMPS THRU THE WEEKEND WILL BRING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE THURS NIGHT WITH THE NRN PORTION OF THE
FRONT PUSHING WELL OFFSHORE. SRN PORTION PUSHES SWD OVER THE GULF
STATES/NRN GULF...STALLING IN WLY FLOW ALOFT. ENDED CHANCE POPS NEAR
THE COAST AT MIDNIGHT...WITH DRYING/CLEARING CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.
1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FRI...RESULTING
IN ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. H85
TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND -12C (-2 STD DEV)...WITH THICKNESSES
YIELDING TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI
NIGHT WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING MODERATE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.
TEMPS FORECAST IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS FRI NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. THEREAFTER...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE THANKS
TO DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW OVER THE WRN CONUS. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
AGAIN BE CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC FLOW (TROUGHING) OVER THE ERN
CONUS AND RIDGING (RETURN TO A +PNA) OVER THE WRN CONUS. MODELS
STRUGGLING WITH A NUMBER OF CANADIAN IMPULSES SET TO IMPACT THE NE
STATES...BUT ALSO SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE BAJA THIS WEEKEND.
ECMWF RATHER ROBUST WITH THIS ENERGY...TRANSLATING ACROSS NRN MEXICO
AND THE SRN PLAINS SAT NIGHT-SUN...POSSIBLY PHASING WITH NRN STREAM
ENERGY OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS SOLUTION WOULD LIFT THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF NWD LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
RAIN TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS SHEARS THE
ENERGY...KEEPING IT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...KEEPING THE LOCAL
AREA DRY. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD A WPC/ENSEMBLE APPROACH WHICH
KEEPS THE SRN STREAM WAVE FLAT AND THE LOCAL AREA DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND..WITH MODERATING TEMPS. HIGHS SAT FORECAST IN THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-MID 40S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS SUN IN THE
MID 50S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 40S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PASS OVER THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WITH A LIGHT NNE WIND DUE TO 1030MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER
PA. ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE ECG...WHICH WILL HAVE A PERIOD OF 5KFT
CIGS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF -RA IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY AFTER 21Z.
CIGS LOWER TO 4-5KFT THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH A LIGHT ESE WIND.
THERE IS AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
THE CHC OF RA INCREASES LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RA
OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING. A TRANSITION
TO A MIX AND EVENTUALLY SN SHOULD BEGIN AT SBY AFTER 06Z...WITH
THE TRANSITION OCCURRING AT RIC CLOSER TO 12Z. FARTHER SE...THE
CHANGE SHOULD OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY. ADDITIONALLY...A GUSTY
NORTHERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK/SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTH OF THE WATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE BECOME NLY...BUT WEAK LOW-LEVEL CAA HAS
RESULTED IN SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT IN THE BAY/RIVER/SOUND AND
AOB 20 KT COASTAL WATERS. THIS AS WINDS A FEW THOUSAND FT ALOFT
RANGE FROM 30-35KT. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. HAVE
DROPPED SCA HEADLINES ALL WATER EXPECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH
OF THE VA/NC BORDER AS BETTER FETCH WILL RESULT IN 4-5 FT SEAS
TONIGHT. HEADLINES RUN THRU LATE TONIGHT. ~1030+MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WATER TONIGHT...SLIDING OFFSHORE TUES. FLOW BECOMES
SELY BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH AOB 15 KT. WARM FRONT PROGGED TO LIFT
OVER THE WATER LATE TUES NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SWLY
FLOW INCREASES LATE TUES NIGHT...BUT SO DOES WAA OVER VERY COLD
WATER. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT MAYBE ONLY A FEW
GUSTS TO 20 KT LATE TUES NIGHT-EARLY WEDS MORNING IN THE BAY. SEAS
BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT 20 NM OUT LATE TUES THRU WEDS...BEFORE
SUBSIDING WEDS NIGHT AOB 4 FT. FRONT IS SLOW TO CROSS THE WATER
WEDS-WEDS NIGHT. CAA SURGES INTO THE REGION LATE WEDS
NIGHT...CONTINUING THRU THURS NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH A NLY WIND. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT (HIGHEST IN THE SRN WATERS)
THURS...SUBSIDING FRI MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRI INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...SAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030556
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1256 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS REVEALS ~1033 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE ERN GREAT LAKES...RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLC REGION. FLOW
ALOFT IS FROM THE WNW...WELL OUT AHEAD OF BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE WRN
CONUS. SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR ACRS N/NE SECTIONS OF THE CWA...WHILE
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS STREAMING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA. SEEING SOME LOWER CLOUDS/BKN CIGS IN NC AS WELL. FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...AS UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MID MS VALLEY ADVANCES
EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE INCREASING CLOUDS
INTO THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE ADJUSTED MIN TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES ACRS
THE SOUTH DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER...WHILE GENLY KEEPING MINS UNTOUCHED
FARTHER N/NE WHERE SKIES STAY MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH MOST OF THE
NIGHT. EXPECT MINS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S OVER NE NC/FAR
SOUTHERN VA...TO THE LOWER 20S FROM THE NRN NECK TO THE MD ERN
SHORE. LATEST 00Z NAM12 SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY SHOWS SOME LIGHT
RETURNS ENTERING SW ZONES BY 12Z...BUT THIS WOULD JUST BE VIRGA
OVER THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE SO NO CHC FOR PRECIP THROUGH 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CENTER OF SFC HI PRES SLOLY EXITS TO THE E ON TUE...BUT LO LVL CAD
RMNS OVR THE FA. CLDNS WILL CONT TO INCRS TUE MRNG LIMITING TEMP
RISE. SOME LGT PCPN MAY BREAKOUT...ESP FAR WNW AREAS...DURING THE
MIDDAY HRS...THEN BETTER COVERAGE OF PCPN ACRS FA XPCD BY MID/LT
AFTN. MDL SOUNDINGS CONT TO HINT AT PTNTL FOR BRIEF PD OF FZRA OVR
FAR NNW AREAS AS TEMPS STRUGGLE TO REACH 32F THROUGH EARLY AFTN.
CONFIDENCE RMNS LO ATTM...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WINTER WX
ADVISORY. OTRW...P-TYPE TO BE RA OVR THE RGN TUE AFTN/EVE. HI
TEMPS TO BE REACHED LT IN THE DAY...RANGING FM THE M/U30S NW-CNTRL
LOCATIONS TO L40S SE.

WARM FRONT TO LIFT NE THROUGH THE FA TUE NGT. BEST MOISTURE AND
UVM ACRS CNTRL/NRN PORTIONS OF FA...THUS THE HIGHEST POPS...W/
WITH CHC POPS LIMITED TO SRN VA/NE NC. BULK OF THE RA LIFTS TO NRN
PORTION BY LT AT NGT. LO TEMPS LIKELY ARND 00Z/04 WITH RISING TEMPS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPS BY 12Z/04 WED RISE INTO THE U40S- M50S.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRONG SSW FLOW.
THERE RMN TIMING ISSUES W/ THE APPROACHING CDFNT FM THE NNW...AS
12Z/02 NAM ABOUT 12HRS SLOWER THAN THE 12Z/02 GFS. AGAIN...THE
12Z/02 ECMWF SEEMS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS
(40-60%) BY AFTN ACRS NRN TIER OF FA...W/ SLGT CHC TO CHC (20-40%)
TO THE S. FOR NOW...LEAVING OUT ANY MENTION OF T ACRS SRN VA/NE
NC...SINCE IT APRS MOST OF MOISTURE CONFINED TO W/ AND BEHIND THE
FNT. HI TEMPS FM THE U50S/L60S N TO L70S IN FAR SE VA/NE NC.

JUST ONE YEAR AGO...MARCH 2ND-3RD...WENT FM 60S TO L70S (THE 2ND)
TO A FEW INCHES OF SN (ON THE 3RD). THIS MAY OCCUR AGN THIS WK
(WED-THU).

FCST CHALLENGES CONT WED NGT THROUGH THU AS CDFNT SETTLES SSE
THROUGH THE FA...AND ANOTHER AREA OF ARCTIC SFC HI PRES BUILDS TWD
THE MS/OH VLYS. WILL LEAN TWD THE FASTER ARRIVAL OF COLDER SFC
AIR FM THE NNW (GFS/ECMWF) BY LT WED NGT AND CONTG ON THU. THE
MDLS EACH HINT AT WK SFC LO PRES TRACKING THROUGH NC AS S/W ALOFT
(IN FAST SWLY FLO) IS SHEARED AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE RGN. ALL
THIS LEADS TO A TRANSITION (WRT P-TYPE) LT WED/THU. RA...BECOMES
MIXED W/ IP-CHANGING TO SN/IP THEN ENDING AS SN FM NNW TO SE ACRS
THE FA (LASTLY ACRS NE NC BY MID OR LT AFTN THU). TIMING THOSE
TRANSITIONS AT THIS POINT VERY DIFFICULT...THOUGH CURRENTLY EXPECT
A LEAST LGT SN ACCUMS FOR AREAS N OF THE NC/VA BORDER BEFORE THE
DAY ENDS THU (T-2 INCHES S...1-4 INCHES N (HIGHEST PTNTTLY FM
RIC-SBY)). ALONG W/ THE TRANSITION TO WINTRY PCPN...GUSTY NNE WNDS
WILL BE PUSHING COLDER AIR INTO THE RGN. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM ARND
30F N TO THE L40S FAR S. TEMPS THU STEADY OR FALLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED IN WAKE OF THURS COLD FRONT...BUT
MODERATING TEMPS THRU THE WEEKEND WILL BRING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE THURS NIGHT WITH THE NRN PORTION OF THE
FRONT PUSHING WELL OFFSHORE. SRN PORTION PUSHES SWD OVER THE GULF
STATES/NRN GULF...STALLING IN WLY FLOW ALOFT. ENDED CHANCE POPS NEAR
THE COAST AT MIDNIGHT...WITH DRYING/CLEARING CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.
1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FRI...RESULTING
IN ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. H85
TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND -12C (-2 STD DEV)...WITH THICKNESSES
YIELDING TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI
NIGHT WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING MODERATE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.
TEMPS FORECAST IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS FRI NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. THEREAFTER...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE THANKS
TO DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW OVER THE WRN CONUS. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
AGAIN BE CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC FLOW (TROUGHING) OVER THE ERN
CONUS AND RIDGING (RETURN TO A +PNA) OVER THE WRN CONUS. MODELS
STRUGGLING WITH A NUMBER OF CANADIAN IMPULSES SET TO IMPACT THE NE
STATES...BUT ALSO SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE BAJA THIS WEEKEND.
ECMWF RATHER ROBUST WITH THIS ENERGY...TRANSLATING ACROSS NRN MEXICO
AND THE SRN PLAINS SAT NIGHT-SUN...POSSIBLY PHASING WITH NRN STREAM
ENERGY OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS SOLUTION WOULD LIFT THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF NWD LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
RAIN TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS SHEARS THE
ENERGY...KEEPING IT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...KEEPING THE LOCAL
AREA DRY. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD A WPC/ENSEMBLE APPROACH WHICH
KEEPS THE SRN STREAM WAVE FLAT AND THE LOCAL AREA DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND..WITH MODERATING TEMPS. HIGHS SAT FORECAST IN THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-MID 40S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS SUN IN THE
MID 50S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 40S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PASS OVER THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WITH A LIGHT NNE WIND DUE TO 1030MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER
PA. ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE ECG...WHICH WILL HAVE A PERIOD OF 5KFT
CIGS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF -RA IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY AFTER 21Z.
CIGS LOWER TO 4-5KFT THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH A LIGHT ESE WIND.
THERE IS AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
THE CHC OF RA INCREASES LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RA
OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING. A TRANSITION
TO A MIX AND EVENTUALLY SN SHOULD BEGIN AT SBY AFTER 06Z...WITH
THE TRANSITION OCCURRING AT RIC CLOSER TO 12Z. FARTHER SE...THE
CHANGE SHOULD OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY. ADDITIONALLY...A GUSTY
NORTHERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK/SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTH OF THE WATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE BECOME NLY...BUT WEAK LOW-LEVEL CAA HAS
RESULTED IN SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT IN THE BAY/RIVER/SOUND AND
AOB 20 KT COASTAL WATERS. THIS AS WINDS A FEW THOUSAND FT ALOFT
RANGE FROM 30-35KT. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. HAVE
DROPPED SCA HEADLINES ALL WATER EXPECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH
OF THE VA/NC BORDER AS BETTER FETCH WILL RESULT IN 4-5 FT SEAS
TONIGHT. HEADLINES RUN THRU LATE TONIGHT. ~1030+MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WATER TONIGHT...SLIDING OFFSHORE TUES. FLOW BECOMES
SELY BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH AOB 15 KT. WARM FRONT PROGGED TO LIFT
OVER THE WATER LATE TUES NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SWLY
FLOW INCREASES LATE TUES NIGHT...BUT SO DOES WAA OVER VERY COLD
WATER. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT MAYBE ONLY A FEW
GUSTS TO 20 KT LATE TUES NIGHT-EARLY WEDS MORNING IN THE BAY. SEAS
BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT 20 NM OUT LATE TUES THRU WEDS...BEFORE
SUBSIDING WEDS NIGHT AOB 4 FT. FRONT IS SLOW TO CROSS THE WATER
WEDS-WEDS NIGHT. CAA SURGES INTO THE REGION LATE WEDS
NIGHT...CONTINUING THRU THURS NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH A NLY WIND. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT (HIGHEST IN THE SRN WATERS)
THURS...SUBSIDING FRI MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRI INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...SAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030556
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1256 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS REVEALS ~1033 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE ERN GREAT LAKES...RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLC REGION. FLOW
ALOFT IS FROM THE WNW...WELL OUT AHEAD OF BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE WRN
CONUS. SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR ACRS N/NE SECTIONS OF THE CWA...WHILE
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS STREAMING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA. SEEING SOME LOWER CLOUDS/BKN CIGS IN NC AS WELL. FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...AS UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MID MS VALLEY ADVANCES
EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE INCREASING CLOUDS
INTO THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE ADJUSTED MIN TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES ACRS
THE SOUTH DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER...WHILE GENLY KEEPING MINS UNTOUCHED
FARTHER N/NE WHERE SKIES STAY MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH MOST OF THE
NIGHT. EXPECT MINS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S OVER NE NC/FAR
SOUTHERN VA...TO THE LOWER 20S FROM THE NRN NECK TO THE MD ERN
SHORE. LATEST 00Z NAM12 SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY SHOWS SOME LIGHT
RETURNS ENTERING SW ZONES BY 12Z...BUT THIS WOULD JUST BE VIRGA
OVER THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE SO NO CHC FOR PRECIP THROUGH 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CENTER OF SFC HI PRES SLOLY EXITS TO THE E ON TUE...BUT LO LVL CAD
RMNS OVR THE FA. CLDNS WILL CONT TO INCRS TUE MRNG LIMITING TEMP
RISE. SOME LGT PCPN MAY BREAKOUT...ESP FAR WNW AREAS...DURING THE
MIDDAY HRS...THEN BETTER COVERAGE OF PCPN ACRS FA XPCD BY MID/LT
AFTN. MDL SOUNDINGS CONT TO HINT AT PTNTL FOR BRIEF PD OF FZRA OVR
FAR NNW AREAS AS TEMPS STRUGGLE TO REACH 32F THROUGH EARLY AFTN.
CONFIDENCE RMNS LO ATTM...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WINTER WX
ADVISORY. OTRW...P-TYPE TO BE RA OVR THE RGN TUE AFTN/EVE. HI
TEMPS TO BE REACHED LT IN THE DAY...RANGING FM THE M/U30S NW-CNTRL
LOCATIONS TO L40S SE.

WARM FRONT TO LIFT NE THROUGH THE FA TUE NGT. BEST MOISTURE AND
UVM ACRS CNTRL/NRN PORTIONS OF FA...THUS THE HIGHEST POPS...W/
WITH CHC POPS LIMITED TO SRN VA/NE NC. BULK OF THE RA LIFTS TO NRN
PORTION BY LT AT NGT. LO TEMPS LIKELY ARND 00Z/04 WITH RISING TEMPS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPS BY 12Z/04 WED RISE INTO THE U40S- M50S.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRONG SSW FLOW.
THERE RMN TIMING ISSUES W/ THE APPROACHING CDFNT FM THE NNW...AS
12Z/02 NAM ABOUT 12HRS SLOWER THAN THE 12Z/02 GFS. AGAIN...THE
12Z/02 ECMWF SEEMS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS
(40-60%) BY AFTN ACRS NRN TIER OF FA...W/ SLGT CHC TO CHC (20-40%)
TO THE S. FOR NOW...LEAVING OUT ANY MENTION OF T ACRS SRN VA/NE
NC...SINCE IT APRS MOST OF MOISTURE CONFINED TO W/ AND BEHIND THE
FNT. HI TEMPS FM THE U50S/L60S N TO L70S IN FAR SE VA/NE NC.

JUST ONE YEAR AGO...MARCH 2ND-3RD...WENT FM 60S TO L70S (THE 2ND)
TO A FEW INCHES OF SN (ON THE 3RD). THIS MAY OCCUR AGN THIS WK
(WED-THU).

FCST CHALLENGES CONT WED NGT THROUGH THU AS CDFNT SETTLES SSE
THROUGH THE FA...AND ANOTHER AREA OF ARCTIC SFC HI PRES BUILDS TWD
THE MS/OH VLYS. WILL LEAN TWD THE FASTER ARRIVAL OF COLDER SFC
AIR FM THE NNW (GFS/ECMWF) BY LT WED NGT AND CONTG ON THU. THE
MDLS EACH HINT AT WK SFC LO PRES TRACKING THROUGH NC AS S/W ALOFT
(IN FAST SWLY FLO) IS SHEARED AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE RGN. ALL
THIS LEADS TO A TRANSITION (WRT P-TYPE) LT WED/THU. RA...BECOMES
MIXED W/ IP-CHANGING TO SN/IP THEN ENDING AS SN FM NNW TO SE ACRS
THE FA (LASTLY ACRS NE NC BY MID OR LT AFTN THU). TIMING THOSE
TRANSITIONS AT THIS POINT VERY DIFFICULT...THOUGH CURRENTLY EXPECT
A LEAST LGT SN ACCUMS FOR AREAS N OF THE NC/VA BORDER BEFORE THE
DAY ENDS THU (T-2 INCHES S...1-4 INCHES N (HIGHEST PTNTTLY FM
RIC-SBY)). ALONG W/ THE TRANSITION TO WINTRY PCPN...GUSTY NNE WNDS
WILL BE PUSHING COLDER AIR INTO THE RGN. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM ARND
30F N TO THE L40S FAR S. TEMPS THU STEADY OR FALLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED IN WAKE OF THURS COLD FRONT...BUT
MODERATING TEMPS THRU THE WEEKEND WILL BRING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE THURS NIGHT WITH THE NRN PORTION OF THE
FRONT PUSHING WELL OFFSHORE. SRN PORTION PUSHES SWD OVER THE GULF
STATES/NRN GULF...STALLING IN WLY FLOW ALOFT. ENDED CHANCE POPS NEAR
THE COAST AT MIDNIGHT...WITH DRYING/CLEARING CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.
1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FRI...RESULTING
IN ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. H85
TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND -12C (-2 STD DEV)...WITH THICKNESSES
YIELDING TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI
NIGHT WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING MODERATE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.
TEMPS FORECAST IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS FRI NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. THEREAFTER...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE THANKS
TO DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW OVER THE WRN CONUS. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
AGAIN BE CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC FLOW (TROUGHING) OVER THE ERN
CONUS AND RIDGING (RETURN TO A +PNA) OVER THE WRN CONUS. MODELS
STRUGGLING WITH A NUMBER OF CANADIAN IMPULSES SET TO IMPACT THE NE
STATES...BUT ALSO SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE BAJA THIS WEEKEND.
ECMWF RATHER ROBUST WITH THIS ENERGY...TRANSLATING ACROSS NRN MEXICO
AND THE SRN PLAINS SAT NIGHT-SUN...POSSIBLY PHASING WITH NRN STREAM
ENERGY OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS SOLUTION WOULD LIFT THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF NWD LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
RAIN TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS SHEARS THE
ENERGY...KEEPING IT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...KEEPING THE LOCAL
AREA DRY. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD A WPC/ENSEMBLE APPROACH WHICH
KEEPS THE SRN STREAM WAVE FLAT AND THE LOCAL AREA DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND..WITH MODERATING TEMPS. HIGHS SAT FORECAST IN THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-MID 40S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS SUN IN THE
MID 50S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 40S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PASS OVER THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WITH A LIGHT NNE WIND DUE TO 1030MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER
PA. ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE ECG...WHICH WILL HAVE A PERIOD OF 5KFT
CIGS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF -RA IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY AFTER 21Z.
CIGS LOWER TO 4-5KFT THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH A LIGHT ESE WIND.
THERE IS AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
THE CHC OF RA INCREASES LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RA
OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING. A TRANSITION
TO A MIX AND EVENTUALLY SN SHOULD BEGIN AT SBY AFTER 06Z...WITH
THE TRANSITION OCCURRING AT RIC CLOSER TO 12Z. FARTHER SE...THE
CHANGE SHOULD OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY. ADDITIONALLY...A GUSTY
NORTHERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK/SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTH OF THE WATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE BECOME NLY...BUT WEAK LOW-LEVEL CAA HAS
RESULTED IN SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT IN THE BAY/RIVER/SOUND AND
AOB 20 KT COASTAL WATERS. THIS AS WINDS A FEW THOUSAND FT ALOFT
RANGE FROM 30-35KT. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. HAVE
DROPPED SCA HEADLINES ALL WATER EXPECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH
OF THE VA/NC BORDER AS BETTER FETCH WILL RESULT IN 4-5 FT SEAS
TONIGHT. HEADLINES RUN THRU LATE TONIGHT. ~1030+MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WATER TONIGHT...SLIDING OFFSHORE TUES. FLOW BECOMES
SELY BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH AOB 15 KT. WARM FRONT PROGGED TO LIFT
OVER THE WATER LATE TUES NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SWLY
FLOW INCREASES LATE TUES NIGHT...BUT SO DOES WAA OVER VERY COLD
WATER. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT MAYBE ONLY A FEW
GUSTS TO 20 KT LATE TUES NIGHT-EARLY WEDS MORNING IN THE BAY. SEAS
BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT 20 NM OUT LATE TUES THRU WEDS...BEFORE
SUBSIDING WEDS NIGHT AOB 4 FT. FRONT IS SLOW TO CROSS THE WATER
WEDS-WEDS NIGHT. CAA SURGES INTO THE REGION LATE WEDS
NIGHT...CONTINUING THRU THURS NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH A NLY WIND. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT (HIGHEST IN THE SRN WATERS)
THURS...SUBSIDING FRI MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRI INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...SAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030556
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1256 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS REVEALS ~1033 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE ERN GREAT LAKES...RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLC REGION. FLOW
ALOFT IS FROM THE WNW...WELL OUT AHEAD OF BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE WRN
CONUS. SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR ACRS N/NE SECTIONS OF THE CWA...WHILE
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS STREAMING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA. SEEING SOME LOWER CLOUDS/BKN CIGS IN NC AS WELL. FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...AS UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MID MS VALLEY ADVANCES
EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE INCREASING CLOUDS
INTO THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE ADJUSTED MIN TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES ACRS
THE SOUTH DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER...WHILE GENLY KEEPING MINS UNTOUCHED
FARTHER N/NE WHERE SKIES STAY MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH MOST OF THE
NIGHT. EXPECT MINS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S OVER NE NC/FAR
SOUTHERN VA...TO THE LOWER 20S FROM THE NRN NECK TO THE MD ERN
SHORE. LATEST 00Z NAM12 SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY SHOWS SOME LIGHT
RETURNS ENTERING SW ZONES BY 12Z...BUT THIS WOULD JUST BE VIRGA
OVER THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE SO NO CHC FOR PRECIP THROUGH 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CENTER OF SFC HI PRES SLOLY EXITS TO THE E ON TUE...BUT LO LVL CAD
RMNS OVR THE FA. CLDNS WILL CONT TO INCRS TUE MRNG LIMITING TEMP
RISE. SOME LGT PCPN MAY BREAKOUT...ESP FAR WNW AREAS...DURING THE
MIDDAY HRS...THEN BETTER COVERAGE OF PCPN ACRS FA XPCD BY MID/LT
AFTN. MDL SOUNDINGS CONT TO HINT AT PTNTL FOR BRIEF PD OF FZRA OVR
FAR NNW AREAS AS TEMPS STRUGGLE TO REACH 32F THROUGH EARLY AFTN.
CONFIDENCE RMNS LO ATTM...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WINTER WX
ADVISORY. OTRW...P-TYPE TO BE RA OVR THE RGN TUE AFTN/EVE. HI
TEMPS TO BE REACHED LT IN THE DAY...RANGING FM THE M/U30S NW-CNTRL
LOCATIONS TO L40S SE.

WARM FRONT TO LIFT NE THROUGH THE FA TUE NGT. BEST MOISTURE AND
UVM ACRS CNTRL/NRN PORTIONS OF FA...THUS THE HIGHEST POPS...W/
WITH CHC POPS LIMITED TO SRN VA/NE NC. BULK OF THE RA LIFTS TO NRN
PORTION BY LT AT NGT. LO TEMPS LIKELY ARND 00Z/04 WITH RISING TEMPS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPS BY 12Z/04 WED RISE INTO THE U40S- M50S.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRONG SSW FLOW.
THERE RMN TIMING ISSUES W/ THE APPROACHING CDFNT FM THE NNW...AS
12Z/02 NAM ABOUT 12HRS SLOWER THAN THE 12Z/02 GFS. AGAIN...THE
12Z/02 ECMWF SEEMS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS
(40-60%) BY AFTN ACRS NRN TIER OF FA...W/ SLGT CHC TO CHC (20-40%)
TO THE S. FOR NOW...LEAVING OUT ANY MENTION OF T ACRS SRN VA/NE
NC...SINCE IT APRS MOST OF MOISTURE CONFINED TO W/ AND BEHIND THE
FNT. HI TEMPS FM THE U50S/L60S N TO L70S IN FAR SE VA/NE NC.

JUST ONE YEAR AGO...MARCH 2ND-3RD...WENT FM 60S TO L70S (THE 2ND)
TO A FEW INCHES OF SN (ON THE 3RD). THIS MAY OCCUR AGN THIS WK
(WED-THU).

FCST CHALLENGES CONT WED NGT THROUGH THU AS CDFNT SETTLES SSE
THROUGH THE FA...AND ANOTHER AREA OF ARCTIC SFC HI PRES BUILDS TWD
THE MS/OH VLYS. WILL LEAN TWD THE FASTER ARRIVAL OF COLDER SFC
AIR FM THE NNW (GFS/ECMWF) BY LT WED NGT AND CONTG ON THU. THE
MDLS EACH HINT AT WK SFC LO PRES TRACKING THROUGH NC AS S/W ALOFT
(IN FAST SWLY FLO) IS SHEARED AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE RGN. ALL
THIS LEADS TO A TRANSITION (WRT P-TYPE) LT WED/THU. RA...BECOMES
MIXED W/ IP-CHANGING TO SN/IP THEN ENDING AS SN FM NNW TO SE ACRS
THE FA (LASTLY ACRS NE NC BY MID OR LT AFTN THU). TIMING THOSE
TRANSITIONS AT THIS POINT VERY DIFFICULT...THOUGH CURRENTLY EXPECT
A LEAST LGT SN ACCUMS FOR AREAS N OF THE NC/VA BORDER BEFORE THE
DAY ENDS THU (T-2 INCHES S...1-4 INCHES N (HIGHEST PTNTTLY FM
RIC-SBY)). ALONG W/ THE TRANSITION TO WINTRY PCPN...GUSTY NNE WNDS
WILL BE PUSHING COLDER AIR INTO THE RGN. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM ARND
30F N TO THE L40S FAR S. TEMPS THU STEADY OR FALLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED IN WAKE OF THURS COLD FRONT...BUT
MODERATING TEMPS THRU THE WEEKEND WILL BRING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE THURS NIGHT WITH THE NRN PORTION OF THE
FRONT PUSHING WELL OFFSHORE. SRN PORTION PUSHES SWD OVER THE GULF
STATES/NRN GULF...STALLING IN WLY FLOW ALOFT. ENDED CHANCE POPS NEAR
THE COAST AT MIDNIGHT...WITH DRYING/CLEARING CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.
1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FRI...RESULTING
IN ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. H85
TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND -12C (-2 STD DEV)...WITH THICKNESSES
YIELDING TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI
NIGHT WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING MODERATE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.
TEMPS FORECAST IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS FRI NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. THEREAFTER...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE THANKS
TO DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW OVER THE WRN CONUS. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
AGAIN BE CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC FLOW (TROUGHING) OVER THE ERN
CONUS AND RIDGING (RETURN TO A +PNA) OVER THE WRN CONUS. MODELS
STRUGGLING WITH A NUMBER OF CANADIAN IMPULSES SET TO IMPACT THE NE
STATES...BUT ALSO SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE BAJA THIS WEEKEND.
ECMWF RATHER ROBUST WITH THIS ENERGY...TRANSLATING ACROSS NRN MEXICO
AND THE SRN PLAINS SAT NIGHT-SUN...POSSIBLY PHASING WITH NRN STREAM
ENERGY OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS SOLUTION WOULD LIFT THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF NWD LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
RAIN TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS SHEARS THE
ENERGY...KEEPING IT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...KEEPING THE LOCAL
AREA DRY. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD A WPC/ENSEMBLE APPROACH WHICH
KEEPS THE SRN STREAM WAVE FLAT AND THE LOCAL AREA DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND..WITH MODERATING TEMPS. HIGHS SAT FORECAST IN THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-MID 40S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS SUN IN THE
MID 50S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 40S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PASS OVER THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WITH A LIGHT NNE WIND DUE TO 1030MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER
PA. ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE ECG...WHICH WILL HAVE A PERIOD OF 5KFT
CIGS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF -RA IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY AFTER 21Z.
CIGS LOWER TO 4-5KFT THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH A LIGHT ESE WIND.
THERE IS AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
THE CHC OF RA INCREASES LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RA
OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING. A TRANSITION
TO A MIX AND EVENTUALLY SN SHOULD BEGIN AT SBY AFTER 06Z...WITH
THE TRANSITION OCCURRING AT RIC CLOSER TO 12Z. FARTHER SE...THE
CHANGE SHOULD OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY. ADDITIONALLY...A GUSTY
NORTHERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK/SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTH OF THE WATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE BECOME NLY...BUT WEAK LOW-LEVEL CAA HAS
RESULTED IN SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT IN THE BAY/RIVER/SOUND AND
AOB 20 KT COASTAL WATERS. THIS AS WINDS A FEW THOUSAND FT ALOFT
RANGE FROM 30-35KT. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. HAVE
DROPPED SCA HEADLINES ALL WATER EXPECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH
OF THE VA/NC BORDER AS BETTER FETCH WILL RESULT IN 4-5 FT SEAS
TONIGHT. HEADLINES RUN THRU LATE TONIGHT. ~1030+MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WATER TONIGHT...SLIDING OFFSHORE TUES. FLOW BECOMES
SELY BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH AOB 15 KT. WARM FRONT PROGGED TO LIFT
OVER THE WATER LATE TUES NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SWLY
FLOW INCREASES LATE TUES NIGHT...BUT SO DOES WAA OVER VERY COLD
WATER. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT MAYBE ONLY A FEW
GUSTS TO 20 KT LATE TUES NIGHT-EARLY WEDS MORNING IN THE BAY. SEAS
BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT 20 NM OUT LATE TUES THRU WEDS...BEFORE
SUBSIDING WEDS NIGHT AOB 4 FT. FRONT IS SLOW TO CROSS THE WATER
WEDS-WEDS NIGHT. CAA SURGES INTO THE REGION LATE WEDS
NIGHT...CONTINUING THRU THURS NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH A NLY WIND. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT (HIGHEST IN THE SRN WATERS)
THURS...SUBSIDING FRI MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRI INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...SAM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 030552
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1252 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THEN FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1000 PM EST MONDAY...

1033 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER OHIO. THIS HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST OVERNIGHT PROVIDING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.
A STATIONARY FRONT WAS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH...EXTENDING FROM
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA SOUTHWEST TO JACKSON MS. THIS STATIONARY
FROM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING NORTH OVERNIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT RESULTING IN THE RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE AREA BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. QUESTION TO BE ANSWERED IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR PRECIPITATION. THE CLOSEST THING ON RADAR AT
THE MOMENT IS OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BETWEEN ASHEVILLE NC
AND ATLANTA GA.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CERTAINLY BE IN A POSITION TO PROVIDE ENOUGH
COLD AIR FOR A WINTRY FORM OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY MORNING. THE
QUESTION IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH DEPTH TO THE MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE PRECIPITATION. BOTH THE HRRR AND RNKWRF SUGGEST ONLY TRACE
AMOUNTS TO OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND NOON TUESDAY WITH THE LARGER
SCALE MODELS PRODUCING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. TRACE ICE IS
CERTAINLY ENOUGH TO BE A NUISANCE...BUT THIS IS NOT GOING TO BE A
WIDESPREAD EVENT.

THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH PRECIP PRODUCTION FOR TUESDAY IS THE LACK OF
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN THE M8-M12 DEG C DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE DRY WITHIN THIS LAYER...ALL OF THE
SATURATION TAKING PLACE IN A LOWER LAYER BETWEEN +3 DEG C AND -3
DEG C. UNLESS THERE IS SOME SEEDER FEEDER PROCESS THAT DEVELOPS
INOF THE WARM FRONT...THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS THE PTYPE WILL
BE EITHER DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE PENDING SURFACE TEMPERATURE
AT THE TIME. THE CRITICAL WINDOW FOR THE FREEZING PRECIPITATION
WILL BE DURING THE MORNING...SO STILL SEE THE NEED FOR WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIALLY LIGHT ICING THAT
MAY OCCUR...KEEPING IN MIND THAT EVEN A VERY LIGHT COATING OF ICE
ON AN UNTREATED SURFACE CAN POSE A TRAVEL/WALKING HAZARD.

LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S IN THE
COLDEST VALLEYS TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE PIEDMONT. WARM AIR WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY CHANGING PRECIPITATION OVER TO
ALL LIQUID TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST WILL BE THE SLOWEST TO TRANSITION. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER
50S IN THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST MONDAY...

COMPLICATED SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH MULTIPLE CONCERNS. TO BEGIN
TUESDAY NIGHT...ANY REMNANTS OF EARLIER WEDGE WILL BE LONG GONE TO
THE NORTHEAST WITH THE AREA SOLIDLY IN THE WARM SECTOR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING AND CONTINUING TO RISE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON THE HEELS OF A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
LLJ. CONSEQUENTLY...ANY ASSOCIATED WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION
WILL ALSO HAVE LIFTED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. NOW...THE
ATTENTION SHIFTS TO THE ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF...590+ DM AT
THAT...WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR
WILL PLUNGE INITIALLY SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. AS
THE ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONT SLOWS ITS PUSH INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST STATES THANKS TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE
AND THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. THIS HOLDS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
WEST OF OUR CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MUCH OF THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS. FINALLY...WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...THE FRONT WILL BEGIN A BETTER SOUTHEASTWARD
PUSH AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY KICKS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WOULD
EXPECT HEAVIER RAIN TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA BY
00Z WED...THEN BEGIN TO SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.

MEANWHILE...PART OF THE UPPER TROUGH LAGS BEHIND AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES IN RESPONSE. THIS
WILL FURTHER DELAY THE PUSH OF THE PRECIPITATION INTO/THROUGH THE
CWA...BUT PERHAPS NOT THE SHALLOW COLD ARCTIC AIR ONCE IT MANGES
TO CROSS THE APPALACHIANS. QUITE A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS PRESENTED
BY THE MODELS AND WPC AS TO THE WINTER WEATHER THREAT THURSDAY
GIVEN THAT THIS IS FAR FROM A NORMAL SYNOPTIC SITUATION FOR A SNOW
EVENT IN THIS REGION. THE BIG QUESTION IS NOT WHETHER OR NOT THERE
WILL BE PRECIPITATION...BUT HOW QUICKLY WILL THE COLD AIR SPREAD
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...BEFORE THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT...AND HOW QUICKLY WILL THE COLD AIR BECOME
DEEP ENOUGH TO CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION TO SNOW. AM INCLINED AT
THIS POINT TO THROW OUT RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN SCENARIOS...NOT ONLY
BECAUSE IT IS NOT CLIMATOLOGICALLY OR SYNOPTICALLY FAVORABLE IN
THIS SITUATION...BUT THINKING IS THAT COLD AIR WILL BECOME DEEP
ENOUGH QUICKLY ENOUGH TO CHANGE RAIN OVER TO SNOW...OTHER THAN A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CHANGEOVER.
FURTHERMORE...GROUND TEMPS WILL NOT SUPPORT FZRA AT THE CHANGEOVER
TIME AS THE SOUNDING COLUMN COOLS ISOTHERMALLY. FINALLY...THIS IS
YET AGAIN A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR MASS...SO ONCE IT ENTERS THE
REGION...COOLING WILL BE QUICK...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-81. FOR SNOW
AMOUNTS...A PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE...FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH WPC
WWD...IS 4-5 INCHES NORTH...2-4 INCHES CENTRAL/WESTERN AREAS...1-2
INCHES VA PIEDMONT...LITTLE TO NONE NC PIEDMONT.

SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THE FLOOD
THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH COMBINED RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT. DID
ADVERTISE A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN WEDNESDAY EVENING FROM WEST TO
EAST...BUT HAVE REDUCED THE TIME PERIOD OF SUCH COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGES.

TEMPERATURE WISE...A LOT OF NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO RISE TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING AND REMAINING MILD/ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL
THE ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES IN THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PIEDMONT
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL
THURSDAY MORNING. LIKEWISE...A NON-DIURNAL COOLING TREND EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY AS ARCTIC AIR SPREADS INTO THE REGION.
THE GFS IN PARTICULAR SHOW SFC TEMPS BELOW ZERO IN OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES BY FRIDAY MORNING. GIVEN THAT IT IS EARLY MARCH AND THE
850MB TEMPS ARE ONLY AROUND -16C...AS COMPARED TO -26C A COUPLE OF
WEEKS AGO...I FIND THIS SOMEWHAT EXTREME. NONETHELESS...IT IS A
VERY COLD AIR MASS AND WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EST MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...AND BE IN
CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGH WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...AND MAKE ITS
WAY TO THE COAST BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A TREND TOWARD
MILDER CONDITIONS AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA BECOMES
GRADUALLY MORE SW-W...WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND RISING 850 TEMPS
TAKE PLACE.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY A GENEROUS AMOUNT OF VARIATIONS IN THE MODELS
TAKE PLACE. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM EVENTUALLY COME INTO
AGREEMENT OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF CONUS BY
MONDAY OR TUESDAY OR NEXT WEEK...HOW THE SOLUTIONS COME TO BE THAT
WAY HAVE NOTABLE DIFFERENCES. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN
ESTABLISHING THE TROUGH IN THE EAST BY SUNDAY...AND ANY SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEMS EASILY BYPASS OUR REGION EXITING THE U.S. NEAR THE
GA/FL BORDER. THE ECWMF IS NOT A QUICK TO ESTABLISH AN EAST COAST
TROUGH...AND A SUCH...SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS HAVE A BETTER
OPPORTUNITY TO PROGRESS NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR REGION ON THE EAST
SIDE OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

OUR FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BE A CONSENSUS OF THESE
TWO...WITH IT RESEMBLING A WATERED DOWN VERSION OF THE ECWMF IN
TERMS OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
ALSO STAYING ON MORE OF THE MILD SIDE THAN COLD IN REGARDS TO
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1250 AM EST TUESDAY...

MVFR CIGS WILL START PROGRESSES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A WARM FRONT HEADING TOWARD THE AREA. ALONG WITH
THE FRONT WILL COME LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY...MANY
AREAS WILL HAVE LOWERED TO LIFR/IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS DUE TO THE
PRECIPITATION AND MIST. THE BULK OF THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL
BE CONFINED TO NORTH A LINE FROM KBLF-KROA-KLYH DURING THE LATE
MORNING. BY THE AFTERNOON...SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MILD
ENOUGH FOR A WIDESPREAD AREA OF RAIN.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE NIGHT AND GRADUALLY VEER TO
THE SOUTHEAST. ON TUESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AND WINDS AT 850 MB WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
45 TO 50 KTS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT TERMINALS AT HIGHER ELEVATION.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
PERIOD.

EXTENDED FORECAST...

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT ALL OF THE REGION
WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY
AND WINTER PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

FRIDAY SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR WEATHER.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 300 PM EST MONDAY

LIKELY TO SEE SOME SUBSTANTIAL RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS IN
RESPONSE TO UPCOMING RAIN EVENT AND SNOWMELT IN THE
MOUNTAINS...QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT HOW SUBSTANTIAL. SIGNIFICANT SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE NOW CONFINED TO PARTS OF THE UPPER JAMES AND
GREENBRIER RIVER BASINS WHERE THE LATEST AVAILABLE ESTIMATES FROM
THE NATIONAL OPERATIONAL REMOTE SENSING CENTER SHOW ROUGHLY 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT WITH ISOLATED 4 INCHES IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE GREENBRIER. IN THE OTHER MAJOR RIVER
BASINS...NEW...ROANOKE/DAN AND TENNESSEE... MELTING OVER THE
WEEKEND AND TODAY HAS REDUCED THE SNOW TO LESS THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW
WATER AND IN MOST PLACES ZERO.

THE OTHER ELEMENT OF COURSE IS THE QPF. 12Z MODELS (INCLUDING
LATEST EC) HAVE NUDGED THE HEAVIEST QPF A LITTLE MORE TO THE
WEST...REDUCING AMOUNTS IN THE JAMES AND GREENBRIER SOME. IT STILL
APPEARS AS IF 1 TO 2 INCHES COULD FALL ACROSS THE WESTERN BASINS
BY 12Z THURSDAY AND COMBINED WITH SNOWMELT THIS COULD PRODUCE AT
LEAST MINOR RIVER FLOODING ALONG THE GREENBRIER AND POSSIBLY THE
UPPER JAMES. GUIDANCE RECEIVED FROM OHRFC THIS MORNING SUGGESTED
MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT ALDERSON WV ON THE GREENBRIER LIKELY BY EARLY
THURSDAY WITH THE COMBINED SNOWMELT AND QPF. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTIES WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ018>020-022>024-034-035-045>047.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ007-009-
     010-012-015-016.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 1 PM
     EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ011-013-014-017-032-033-043.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ001-002-
     018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ507-508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR WVZ042.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 1 PM
     EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ043-044.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/RAB
NEAR TERM...KK/PM
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS/DS/KK
HYDROLOGY...PC




000
FXUS61 KRNK 030552
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1252 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THEN FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1000 PM EST MONDAY...

1033 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER OHIO. THIS HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST OVERNIGHT PROVIDING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.
A STATIONARY FRONT WAS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH...EXTENDING FROM
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA SOUTHWEST TO JACKSON MS. THIS STATIONARY
FROM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING NORTH OVERNIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT RESULTING IN THE RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE AREA BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. QUESTION TO BE ANSWERED IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR PRECIPITATION. THE CLOSEST THING ON RADAR AT
THE MOMENT IS OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BETWEEN ASHEVILLE NC
AND ATLANTA GA.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CERTAINLY BE IN A POSITION TO PROVIDE ENOUGH
COLD AIR FOR A WINTRY FORM OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY MORNING. THE
QUESTION IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH DEPTH TO THE MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE PRECIPITATION. BOTH THE HRRR AND RNKWRF SUGGEST ONLY TRACE
AMOUNTS TO OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND NOON TUESDAY WITH THE LARGER
SCALE MODELS PRODUCING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. TRACE ICE IS
CERTAINLY ENOUGH TO BE A NUISANCE...BUT THIS IS NOT GOING TO BE A
WIDESPREAD EVENT.

THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH PRECIP PRODUCTION FOR TUESDAY IS THE LACK OF
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN THE M8-M12 DEG C DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE DRY WITHIN THIS LAYER...ALL OF THE
SATURATION TAKING PLACE IN A LOWER LAYER BETWEEN +3 DEG C AND -3
DEG C. UNLESS THERE IS SOME SEEDER FEEDER PROCESS THAT DEVELOPS
INOF THE WARM FRONT...THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS THE PTYPE WILL
BE EITHER DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE PENDING SURFACE TEMPERATURE
AT THE TIME. THE CRITICAL WINDOW FOR THE FREEZING PRECIPITATION
WILL BE DURING THE MORNING...SO STILL SEE THE NEED FOR WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIALLY LIGHT ICING THAT
MAY OCCUR...KEEPING IN MIND THAT EVEN A VERY LIGHT COATING OF ICE
ON AN UNTREATED SURFACE CAN POSE A TRAVEL/WALKING HAZARD.

LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S IN THE
COLDEST VALLEYS TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE PIEDMONT. WARM AIR WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY CHANGING PRECIPITATION OVER TO
ALL LIQUID TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST WILL BE THE SLOWEST TO TRANSITION. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER
50S IN THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST MONDAY...

COMPLICATED SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH MULTIPLE CONCERNS. TO BEGIN
TUESDAY NIGHT...ANY REMNANTS OF EARLIER WEDGE WILL BE LONG GONE TO
THE NORTHEAST WITH THE AREA SOLIDLY IN THE WARM SECTOR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING AND CONTINUING TO RISE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON THE HEELS OF A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
LLJ. CONSEQUENTLY...ANY ASSOCIATED WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION
WILL ALSO HAVE LIFTED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. NOW...THE
ATTENTION SHIFTS TO THE ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF...590+ DM AT
THAT...WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR
WILL PLUNGE INITIALLY SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. AS
THE ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONT SLOWS ITS PUSH INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST STATES THANKS TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE
AND THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. THIS HOLDS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
WEST OF OUR CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MUCH OF THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS. FINALLY...WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...THE FRONT WILL BEGIN A BETTER SOUTHEASTWARD
PUSH AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY KICKS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WOULD
EXPECT HEAVIER RAIN TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA BY
00Z WED...THEN BEGIN TO SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.

MEANWHILE...PART OF THE UPPER TROUGH LAGS BEHIND AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES IN RESPONSE. THIS
WILL FURTHER DELAY THE PUSH OF THE PRECIPITATION INTO/THROUGH THE
CWA...BUT PERHAPS NOT THE SHALLOW COLD ARCTIC AIR ONCE IT MANGES
TO CROSS THE APPALACHIANS. QUITE A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS PRESENTED
BY THE MODELS AND WPC AS TO THE WINTER WEATHER THREAT THURSDAY
GIVEN THAT THIS IS FAR FROM A NORMAL SYNOPTIC SITUATION FOR A SNOW
EVENT IN THIS REGION. THE BIG QUESTION IS NOT WHETHER OR NOT THERE
WILL BE PRECIPITATION...BUT HOW QUICKLY WILL THE COLD AIR SPREAD
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...BEFORE THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT...AND HOW QUICKLY WILL THE COLD AIR BECOME
DEEP ENOUGH TO CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION TO SNOW. AM INCLINED AT
THIS POINT TO THROW OUT RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN SCENARIOS...NOT ONLY
BECAUSE IT IS NOT CLIMATOLOGICALLY OR SYNOPTICALLY FAVORABLE IN
THIS SITUATION...BUT THINKING IS THAT COLD AIR WILL BECOME DEEP
ENOUGH QUICKLY ENOUGH TO CHANGE RAIN OVER TO SNOW...OTHER THAN A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CHANGEOVER.
FURTHERMORE...GROUND TEMPS WILL NOT SUPPORT FZRA AT THE CHANGEOVER
TIME AS THE SOUNDING COLUMN COOLS ISOTHERMALLY. FINALLY...THIS IS
YET AGAIN A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR MASS...SO ONCE IT ENTERS THE
REGION...COOLING WILL BE QUICK...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-81. FOR SNOW
AMOUNTS...A PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE...FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH WPC
WWD...IS 4-5 INCHES NORTH...2-4 INCHES CENTRAL/WESTERN AREAS...1-2
INCHES VA PIEDMONT...LITTLE TO NONE NC PIEDMONT.

SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THE FLOOD
THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH COMBINED RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT. DID
ADVERTISE A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN WEDNESDAY EVENING FROM WEST TO
EAST...BUT HAVE REDUCED THE TIME PERIOD OF SUCH COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGES.

TEMPERATURE WISE...A LOT OF NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO RISE TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING AND REMAINING MILD/ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL
THE ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES IN THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PIEDMONT
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL
THURSDAY MORNING. LIKEWISE...A NON-DIURNAL COOLING TREND EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY AS ARCTIC AIR SPREADS INTO THE REGION.
THE GFS IN PARTICULAR SHOW SFC TEMPS BELOW ZERO IN OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES BY FRIDAY MORNING. GIVEN THAT IT IS EARLY MARCH AND THE
850MB TEMPS ARE ONLY AROUND -16C...AS COMPARED TO -26C A COUPLE OF
WEEKS AGO...I FIND THIS SOMEWHAT EXTREME. NONETHELESS...IT IS A
VERY COLD AIR MASS AND WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EST MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...AND BE IN
CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGH WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...AND MAKE ITS
WAY TO THE COAST BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A TREND TOWARD
MILDER CONDITIONS AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA BECOMES
GRADUALLY MORE SW-W...WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND RISING 850 TEMPS
TAKE PLACE.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY A GENEROUS AMOUNT OF VARIATIONS IN THE MODELS
TAKE PLACE. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM EVENTUALLY COME INTO
AGREEMENT OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF CONUS BY
MONDAY OR TUESDAY OR NEXT WEEK...HOW THE SOLUTIONS COME TO BE THAT
WAY HAVE NOTABLE DIFFERENCES. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN
ESTABLISHING THE TROUGH IN THE EAST BY SUNDAY...AND ANY SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEMS EASILY BYPASS OUR REGION EXITING THE U.S. NEAR THE
GA/FL BORDER. THE ECWMF IS NOT A QUICK TO ESTABLISH AN EAST COAST
TROUGH...AND A SUCH...SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS HAVE A BETTER
OPPORTUNITY TO PROGRESS NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR REGION ON THE EAST
SIDE OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

OUR FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BE A CONSENSUS OF THESE
TWO...WITH IT RESEMBLING A WATERED DOWN VERSION OF THE ECWMF IN
TERMS OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
ALSO STAYING ON MORE OF THE MILD SIDE THAN COLD IN REGARDS TO
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1250 AM EST TUESDAY...

MVFR CIGS WILL START PROGRESSES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A WARM FRONT HEADING TOWARD THE AREA. ALONG WITH
THE FRONT WILL COME LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY...MANY
AREAS WILL HAVE LOWERED TO LIFR/IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS DUE TO THE
PRECIPITATION AND MIST. THE BULK OF THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL
BE CONFINED TO NORTH A LINE FROM KBLF-KROA-KLYH DURING THE LATE
MORNING. BY THE AFTERNOON...SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MILD
ENOUGH FOR A WIDESPREAD AREA OF RAIN.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE NIGHT AND GRADUALLY VEER TO
THE SOUTHEAST. ON TUESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AND WINDS AT 850 MB WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
45 TO 50 KTS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT TERMINALS AT HIGHER ELEVATION.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
PERIOD.

EXTENDED FORECAST...

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT ALL OF THE REGION
WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY
AND WINTER PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

FRIDAY SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR WEATHER.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 300 PM EST MONDAY

LIKELY TO SEE SOME SUBSTANTIAL RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS IN
RESPONSE TO UPCOMING RAIN EVENT AND SNOWMELT IN THE
MOUNTAINS...QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT HOW SUBSTANTIAL. SIGNIFICANT SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE NOW CONFINED TO PARTS OF THE UPPER JAMES AND
GREENBRIER RIVER BASINS WHERE THE LATEST AVAILABLE ESTIMATES FROM
THE NATIONAL OPERATIONAL REMOTE SENSING CENTER SHOW ROUGHLY 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT WITH ISOLATED 4 INCHES IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE GREENBRIER. IN THE OTHER MAJOR RIVER
BASINS...NEW...ROANOKE/DAN AND TENNESSEE... MELTING OVER THE
WEEKEND AND TODAY HAS REDUCED THE SNOW TO LESS THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW
WATER AND IN MOST PLACES ZERO.

THE OTHER ELEMENT OF COURSE IS THE QPF. 12Z MODELS (INCLUDING
LATEST EC) HAVE NUDGED THE HEAVIEST QPF A LITTLE MORE TO THE
WEST...REDUCING AMOUNTS IN THE JAMES AND GREENBRIER SOME. IT STILL
APPEARS AS IF 1 TO 2 INCHES COULD FALL ACROSS THE WESTERN BASINS
BY 12Z THURSDAY AND COMBINED WITH SNOWMELT THIS COULD PRODUCE AT
LEAST MINOR RIVER FLOODING ALONG THE GREENBRIER AND POSSIBLY THE
UPPER JAMES. GUIDANCE RECEIVED FROM OHRFC THIS MORNING SUGGESTED
MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT ALDERSON WV ON THE GREENBRIER LIKELY BY EARLY
THURSDAY WITH THE COMBINED SNOWMELT AND QPF. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTIES WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ018>020-022>024-034-035-045>047.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ007-009-
     010-012-015-016.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 1 PM
     EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ011-013-014-017-032-033-043.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ001-002-
     018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ507-508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR WVZ042.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 1 PM
     EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ043-044.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/RAB
NEAR TERM...KK/PM
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS/DS/KK
HYDROLOGY...PC



000
FXUS61 KRNK 030552
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1252 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THEN FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1000 PM EST MONDAY...

1033 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER OHIO. THIS HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST OVERNIGHT PROVIDING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.
A STATIONARY FRONT WAS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH...EXTENDING FROM
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA SOUTHWEST TO JACKSON MS. THIS STATIONARY
FROM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING NORTH OVERNIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT RESULTING IN THE RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE AREA BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. QUESTION TO BE ANSWERED IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR PRECIPITATION. THE CLOSEST THING ON RADAR AT
THE MOMENT IS OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BETWEEN ASHEVILLE NC
AND ATLANTA GA.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CERTAINLY BE IN A POSITION TO PROVIDE ENOUGH
COLD AIR FOR A WINTRY FORM OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY MORNING. THE
QUESTION IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH DEPTH TO THE MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE PRECIPITATION. BOTH THE HRRR AND RNKWRF SUGGEST ONLY TRACE
AMOUNTS TO OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND NOON TUESDAY WITH THE LARGER
SCALE MODELS PRODUCING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. TRACE ICE IS
CERTAINLY ENOUGH TO BE A NUISANCE...BUT THIS IS NOT GOING TO BE A
WIDESPREAD EVENT.

THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH PRECIP PRODUCTION FOR TUESDAY IS THE LACK OF
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN THE M8-M12 DEG C DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE DRY WITHIN THIS LAYER...ALL OF THE
SATURATION TAKING PLACE IN A LOWER LAYER BETWEEN +3 DEG C AND -3
DEG C. UNLESS THERE IS SOME SEEDER FEEDER PROCESS THAT DEVELOPS
INOF THE WARM FRONT...THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS THE PTYPE WILL
BE EITHER DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE PENDING SURFACE TEMPERATURE
AT THE TIME. THE CRITICAL WINDOW FOR THE FREEZING PRECIPITATION
WILL BE DURING THE MORNING...SO STILL SEE THE NEED FOR WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIALLY LIGHT ICING THAT
MAY OCCUR...KEEPING IN MIND THAT EVEN A VERY LIGHT COATING OF ICE
ON AN UNTREATED SURFACE CAN POSE A TRAVEL/WALKING HAZARD.

LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S IN THE
COLDEST VALLEYS TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE PIEDMONT. WARM AIR WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY CHANGING PRECIPITATION OVER TO
ALL LIQUID TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST WILL BE THE SLOWEST TO TRANSITION. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER
50S IN THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST MONDAY...

COMPLICATED SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH MULTIPLE CONCERNS. TO BEGIN
TUESDAY NIGHT...ANY REMNANTS OF EARLIER WEDGE WILL BE LONG GONE TO
THE NORTHEAST WITH THE AREA SOLIDLY IN THE WARM SECTOR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING AND CONTINUING TO RISE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON THE HEELS OF A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
LLJ. CONSEQUENTLY...ANY ASSOCIATED WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION
WILL ALSO HAVE LIFTED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. NOW...THE
ATTENTION SHIFTS TO THE ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF...590+ DM AT
THAT...WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR
WILL PLUNGE INITIALLY SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. AS
THE ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONT SLOWS ITS PUSH INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST STATES THANKS TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE
AND THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. THIS HOLDS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
WEST OF OUR CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MUCH OF THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS. FINALLY...WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...THE FRONT WILL BEGIN A BETTER SOUTHEASTWARD
PUSH AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY KICKS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WOULD
EXPECT HEAVIER RAIN TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA BY
00Z WED...THEN BEGIN TO SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.

MEANWHILE...PART OF THE UPPER TROUGH LAGS BEHIND AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES IN RESPONSE. THIS
WILL FURTHER DELAY THE PUSH OF THE PRECIPITATION INTO/THROUGH THE
CWA...BUT PERHAPS NOT THE SHALLOW COLD ARCTIC AIR ONCE IT MANGES
TO CROSS THE APPALACHIANS. QUITE A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS PRESENTED
BY THE MODELS AND WPC AS TO THE WINTER WEATHER THREAT THURSDAY
GIVEN THAT THIS IS FAR FROM A NORMAL SYNOPTIC SITUATION FOR A SNOW
EVENT IN THIS REGION. THE BIG QUESTION IS NOT WHETHER OR NOT THERE
WILL BE PRECIPITATION...BUT HOW QUICKLY WILL THE COLD AIR SPREAD
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...BEFORE THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT...AND HOW QUICKLY WILL THE COLD AIR BECOME
DEEP ENOUGH TO CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION TO SNOW. AM INCLINED AT
THIS POINT TO THROW OUT RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN SCENARIOS...NOT ONLY
BECAUSE IT IS NOT CLIMATOLOGICALLY OR SYNOPTICALLY FAVORABLE IN
THIS SITUATION...BUT THINKING IS THAT COLD AIR WILL BECOME DEEP
ENOUGH QUICKLY ENOUGH TO CHANGE RAIN OVER TO SNOW...OTHER THAN A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CHANGEOVER.
FURTHERMORE...GROUND TEMPS WILL NOT SUPPORT FZRA AT THE CHANGEOVER
TIME AS THE SOUNDING COLUMN COOLS ISOTHERMALLY. FINALLY...THIS IS
YET AGAIN A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR MASS...SO ONCE IT ENTERS THE
REGION...COOLING WILL BE QUICK...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-81. FOR SNOW
AMOUNTS...A PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE...FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH WPC
WWD...IS 4-5 INCHES NORTH...2-4 INCHES CENTRAL/WESTERN AREAS...1-2
INCHES VA PIEDMONT...LITTLE TO NONE NC PIEDMONT.

SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THE FLOOD
THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH COMBINED RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT. DID
ADVERTISE A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN WEDNESDAY EVENING FROM WEST TO
EAST...BUT HAVE REDUCED THE TIME PERIOD OF SUCH COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGES.

TEMPERATURE WISE...A LOT OF NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO RISE TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING AND REMAINING MILD/ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL
THE ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES IN THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PIEDMONT
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL
THURSDAY MORNING. LIKEWISE...A NON-DIURNAL COOLING TREND EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY AS ARCTIC AIR SPREADS INTO THE REGION.
THE GFS IN PARTICULAR SHOW SFC TEMPS BELOW ZERO IN OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES BY FRIDAY MORNING. GIVEN THAT IT IS EARLY MARCH AND THE
850MB TEMPS ARE ONLY AROUND -16C...AS COMPARED TO -26C A COUPLE OF
WEEKS AGO...I FIND THIS SOMEWHAT EXTREME. NONETHELESS...IT IS A
VERY COLD AIR MASS AND WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EST MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...AND BE IN
CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGH WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...AND MAKE ITS
WAY TO THE COAST BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A TREND TOWARD
MILDER CONDITIONS AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA BECOMES
GRADUALLY MORE SW-W...WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND RISING 850 TEMPS
TAKE PLACE.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY A GENEROUS AMOUNT OF VARIATIONS IN THE MODELS
TAKE PLACE. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM EVENTUALLY COME INTO
AGREEMENT OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF CONUS BY
MONDAY OR TUESDAY OR NEXT WEEK...HOW THE SOLUTIONS COME TO BE THAT
WAY HAVE NOTABLE DIFFERENCES. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN
ESTABLISHING THE TROUGH IN THE EAST BY SUNDAY...AND ANY SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEMS EASILY BYPASS OUR REGION EXITING THE U.S. NEAR THE
GA/FL BORDER. THE ECWMF IS NOT A QUICK TO ESTABLISH AN EAST COAST
TROUGH...AND A SUCH...SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS HAVE A BETTER
OPPORTUNITY TO PROGRESS NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR REGION ON THE EAST
SIDE OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

OUR FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BE A CONSENSUS OF THESE
TWO...WITH IT RESEMBLING A WATERED DOWN VERSION OF THE ECWMF IN
TERMS OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
ALSO STAYING ON MORE OF THE MILD SIDE THAN COLD IN REGARDS TO
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1250 AM EST TUESDAY...

MVFR CIGS WILL START PROGRESSES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A WARM FRONT HEADING TOWARD THE AREA. ALONG WITH
THE FRONT WILL COME LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY...MANY
AREAS WILL HAVE LOWERED TO LIFR/IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS DUE TO THE
PRECIPITATION AND MIST. THE BULK OF THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL
BE CONFINED TO NORTH A LINE FROM KBLF-KROA-KLYH DURING THE LATE
MORNING. BY THE AFTERNOON...SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MILD
ENOUGH FOR A WIDESPREAD AREA OF RAIN.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE NIGHT AND GRADUALLY VEER TO
THE SOUTHEAST. ON TUESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AND WINDS AT 850 MB WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
45 TO 50 KTS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT TERMINALS AT HIGHER ELEVATION.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
PERIOD.

EXTENDED FORECAST...

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT ALL OF THE REGION
WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY
AND WINTER PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

FRIDAY SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR WEATHER.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 300 PM EST MONDAY

LIKELY TO SEE SOME SUBSTANTIAL RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS IN
RESPONSE TO UPCOMING RAIN EVENT AND SNOWMELT IN THE
MOUNTAINS...QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT HOW SUBSTANTIAL. SIGNIFICANT SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE NOW CONFINED TO PARTS OF THE UPPER JAMES AND
GREENBRIER RIVER BASINS WHERE THE LATEST AVAILABLE ESTIMATES FROM
THE NATIONAL OPERATIONAL REMOTE SENSING CENTER SHOW ROUGHLY 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT WITH ISOLATED 4 INCHES IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE GREENBRIER. IN THE OTHER MAJOR RIVER
BASINS...NEW...ROANOKE/DAN AND TENNESSEE... MELTING OVER THE
WEEKEND AND TODAY HAS REDUCED THE SNOW TO LESS THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW
WATER AND IN MOST PLACES ZERO.

THE OTHER ELEMENT OF COURSE IS THE QPF. 12Z MODELS (INCLUDING
LATEST EC) HAVE NUDGED THE HEAVIEST QPF A LITTLE MORE TO THE
WEST...REDUCING AMOUNTS IN THE JAMES AND GREENBRIER SOME. IT STILL
APPEARS AS IF 1 TO 2 INCHES COULD FALL ACROSS THE WESTERN BASINS
BY 12Z THURSDAY AND COMBINED WITH SNOWMELT THIS COULD PRODUCE AT
LEAST MINOR RIVER FLOODING ALONG THE GREENBRIER AND POSSIBLY THE
UPPER JAMES. GUIDANCE RECEIVED FROM OHRFC THIS MORNING SUGGESTED
MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT ALDERSON WV ON THE GREENBRIER LIKELY BY EARLY
THURSDAY WITH THE COMBINED SNOWMELT AND QPF. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTIES WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ018>020-022>024-034-035-045>047.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ007-009-
     010-012-015-016.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 1 PM
     EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ011-013-014-017-032-033-043.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ001-002-
     018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ507-508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR WVZ042.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 1 PM
     EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ043-044.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/RAB
NEAR TERM...KK/PM
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS/DS/KK
HYDROLOGY...PC



000
FXUS61 KRNK 030552
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1252 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THEN FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1000 PM EST MONDAY...

1033 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER OHIO. THIS HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST OVERNIGHT PROVIDING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.
A STATIONARY FRONT WAS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH...EXTENDING FROM
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA SOUTHWEST TO JACKSON MS. THIS STATIONARY
FROM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING NORTH OVERNIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT RESULTING IN THE RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE AREA BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. QUESTION TO BE ANSWERED IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR PRECIPITATION. THE CLOSEST THING ON RADAR AT
THE MOMENT IS OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BETWEEN ASHEVILLE NC
AND ATLANTA GA.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CERTAINLY BE IN A POSITION TO PROVIDE ENOUGH
COLD AIR FOR A WINTRY FORM OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY MORNING. THE
QUESTION IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH DEPTH TO THE MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE PRECIPITATION. BOTH THE HRRR AND RNKWRF SUGGEST ONLY TRACE
AMOUNTS TO OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND NOON TUESDAY WITH THE LARGER
SCALE MODELS PRODUCING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. TRACE ICE IS
CERTAINLY ENOUGH TO BE A NUISANCE...BUT THIS IS NOT GOING TO BE A
WIDESPREAD EVENT.

THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH PRECIP PRODUCTION FOR TUESDAY IS THE LACK OF
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN THE M8-M12 DEG C DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE DRY WITHIN THIS LAYER...ALL OF THE
SATURATION TAKING PLACE IN A LOWER LAYER BETWEEN +3 DEG C AND -3
DEG C. UNLESS THERE IS SOME SEEDER FEEDER PROCESS THAT DEVELOPS
INOF THE WARM FRONT...THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS THE PTYPE WILL
BE EITHER DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE PENDING SURFACE TEMPERATURE
AT THE TIME. THE CRITICAL WINDOW FOR THE FREEZING PRECIPITATION
WILL BE DURING THE MORNING...SO STILL SEE THE NEED FOR WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIALLY LIGHT ICING THAT
MAY OCCUR...KEEPING IN MIND THAT EVEN A VERY LIGHT COATING OF ICE
ON AN UNTREATED SURFACE CAN POSE A TRAVEL/WALKING HAZARD.

LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S IN THE
COLDEST VALLEYS TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE PIEDMONT. WARM AIR WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY CHANGING PRECIPITATION OVER TO
ALL LIQUID TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST WILL BE THE SLOWEST TO TRANSITION. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER
50S IN THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST MONDAY...

COMPLICATED SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH MULTIPLE CONCERNS. TO BEGIN
TUESDAY NIGHT...ANY REMNANTS OF EARLIER WEDGE WILL BE LONG GONE TO
THE NORTHEAST WITH THE AREA SOLIDLY IN THE WARM SECTOR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING AND CONTINUING TO RISE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON THE HEELS OF A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
LLJ. CONSEQUENTLY...ANY ASSOCIATED WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION
WILL ALSO HAVE LIFTED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. NOW...THE
ATTENTION SHIFTS TO THE ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF...590+ DM AT
THAT...WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR
WILL PLUNGE INITIALLY SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. AS
THE ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONT SLOWS ITS PUSH INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST STATES THANKS TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE
AND THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. THIS HOLDS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
WEST OF OUR CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MUCH OF THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS. FINALLY...WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...THE FRONT WILL BEGIN A BETTER SOUTHEASTWARD
PUSH AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY KICKS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WOULD
EXPECT HEAVIER RAIN TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA BY
00Z WED...THEN BEGIN TO SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.

MEANWHILE...PART OF THE UPPER TROUGH LAGS BEHIND AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES IN RESPONSE. THIS
WILL FURTHER DELAY THE PUSH OF THE PRECIPITATION INTO/THROUGH THE
CWA...BUT PERHAPS NOT THE SHALLOW COLD ARCTIC AIR ONCE IT MANGES
TO CROSS THE APPALACHIANS. QUITE A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS PRESENTED
BY THE MODELS AND WPC AS TO THE WINTER WEATHER THREAT THURSDAY
GIVEN THAT THIS IS FAR FROM A NORMAL SYNOPTIC SITUATION FOR A SNOW
EVENT IN THIS REGION. THE BIG QUESTION IS NOT WHETHER OR NOT THERE
WILL BE PRECIPITATION...BUT HOW QUICKLY WILL THE COLD AIR SPREAD
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...BEFORE THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT...AND HOW QUICKLY WILL THE COLD AIR BECOME
DEEP ENOUGH TO CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION TO SNOW. AM INCLINED AT
THIS POINT TO THROW OUT RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN SCENARIOS...NOT ONLY
BECAUSE IT IS NOT CLIMATOLOGICALLY OR SYNOPTICALLY FAVORABLE IN
THIS SITUATION...BUT THINKING IS THAT COLD AIR WILL BECOME DEEP
ENOUGH QUICKLY ENOUGH TO CHANGE RAIN OVER TO SNOW...OTHER THAN A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CHANGEOVER.
FURTHERMORE...GROUND TEMPS WILL NOT SUPPORT FZRA AT THE CHANGEOVER
TIME AS THE SOUNDING COLUMN COOLS ISOTHERMALLY. FINALLY...THIS IS
YET AGAIN A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR MASS...SO ONCE IT ENTERS THE
REGION...COOLING WILL BE QUICK...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-81. FOR SNOW
AMOUNTS...A PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE...FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH WPC
WWD...IS 4-5 INCHES NORTH...2-4 INCHES CENTRAL/WESTERN AREAS...1-2
INCHES VA PIEDMONT...LITTLE TO NONE NC PIEDMONT.

SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THE FLOOD
THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH COMBINED RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT. DID
ADVERTISE A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN WEDNESDAY EVENING FROM WEST TO
EAST...BUT HAVE REDUCED THE TIME PERIOD OF SUCH COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGES.

TEMPERATURE WISE...A LOT OF NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO RISE TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING AND REMAINING MILD/ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL
THE ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES IN THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PIEDMONT
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL
THURSDAY MORNING. LIKEWISE...A NON-DIURNAL COOLING TREND EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY AS ARCTIC AIR SPREADS INTO THE REGION.
THE GFS IN PARTICULAR SHOW SFC TEMPS BELOW ZERO IN OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES BY FRIDAY MORNING. GIVEN THAT IT IS EARLY MARCH AND THE
850MB TEMPS ARE ONLY AROUND -16C...AS COMPARED TO -26C A COUPLE OF
WEEKS AGO...I FIND THIS SOMEWHAT EXTREME. NONETHELESS...IT IS A
VERY COLD AIR MASS AND WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EST MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...AND BE IN
CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGH WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...AND MAKE ITS
WAY TO THE COAST BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A TREND TOWARD
MILDER CONDITIONS AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA BECOMES
GRADUALLY MORE SW-W...WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND RISING 850 TEMPS
TAKE PLACE.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY A GENEROUS AMOUNT OF VARIATIONS IN THE MODELS
TAKE PLACE. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM EVENTUALLY COME INTO
AGREEMENT OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF CONUS BY
MONDAY OR TUESDAY OR NEXT WEEK...HOW THE SOLUTIONS COME TO BE THAT
WAY HAVE NOTABLE DIFFERENCES. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN
ESTABLISHING THE TROUGH IN THE EAST BY SUNDAY...AND ANY SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEMS EASILY BYPASS OUR REGION EXITING THE U.S. NEAR THE
GA/FL BORDER. THE ECWMF IS NOT A QUICK TO ESTABLISH AN EAST COAST
TROUGH...AND A SUCH...SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS HAVE A BETTER
OPPORTUNITY TO PROGRESS NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR REGION ON THE EAST
SIDE OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

OUR FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BE A CONSENSUS OF THESE
TWO...WITH IT RESEMBLING A WATERED DOWN VERSION OF THE ECWMF IN
TERMS OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
ALSO STAYING ON MORE OF THE MILD SIDE THAN COLD IN REGARDS TO
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1250 AM EST TUESDAY...

MVFR CIGS WILL START PROGRESSES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A WARM FRONT HEADING TOWARD THE AREA. ALONG WITH
THE FRONT WILL COME LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY...MANY
AREAS WILL HAVE LOWERED TO LIFR/IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS DUE TO THE
PRECIPITATION AND MIST. THE BULK OF THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL
BE CONFINED TO NORTH A LINE FROM KBLF-KROA-KLYH DURING THE LATE
MORNING. BY THE AFTERNOON...SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MILD
ENOUGH FOR A WIDESPREAD AREA OF RAIN.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE NIGHT AND GRADUALLY VEER TO
THE SOUTHEAST. ON TUESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AND WINDS AT 850 MB WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
45 TO 50 KTS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT TERMINALS AT HIGHER ELEVATION.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
PERIOD.

EXTENDED FORECAST...

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT ALL OF THE REGION
WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY
AND WINTER PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

FRIDAY SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR WEATHER.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 300 PM EST MONDAY

LIKELY TO SEE SOME SUBSTANTIAL RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS IN
RESPONSE TO UPCOMING RAIN EVENT AND SNOWMELT IN THE
MOUNTAINS...QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT HOW SUBSTANTIAL. SIGNIFICANT SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE NOW CONFINED TO PARTS OF THE UPPER JAMES AND
GREENBRIER RIVER BASINS WHERE THE LATEST AVAILABLE ESTIMATES FROM
THE NATIONAL OPERATIONAL REMOTE SENSING CENTER SHOW ROUGHLY 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT WITH ISOLATED 4 INCHES IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE GREENBRIER. IN THE OTHER MAJOR RIVER
BASINS...NEW...ROANOKE/DAN AND TENNESSEE... MELTING OVER THE
WEEKEND AND TODAY HAS REDUCED THE SNOW TO LESS THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW
WATER AND IN MOST PLACES ZERO.

THE OTHER ELEMENT OF COURSE IS THE QPF. 12Z MODELS (INCLUDING
LATEST EC) HAVE NUDGED THE HEAVIEST QPF A LITTLE MORE TO THE
WEST...REDUCING AMOUNTS IN THE JAMES AND GREENBRIER SOME. IT STILL
APPEARS AS IF 1 TO 2 INCHES COULD FALL ACROSS THE WESTERN BASINS
BY 12Z THURSDAY AND COMBINED WITH SNOWMELT THIS COULD PRODUCE AT
LEAST MINOR RIVER FLOODING ALONG THE GREENBRIER AND POSSIBLY THE
UPPER JAMES. GUIDANCE RECEIVED FROM OHRFC THIS MORNING SUGGESTED
MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT ALDERSON WV ON THE GREENBRIER LIKELY BY EARLY
THURSDAY WITH THE COMBINED SNOWMELT AND QPF. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTIES WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ018>020-022>024-034-035-045>047.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ007-009-
     010-012-015-016.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 1 PM
     EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ011-013-014-017-032-033-043.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ001-002-
     018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ507-508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR WVZ042.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 1 PM
     EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ043-044.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/RAB
NEAR TERM...KK/PM
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS/DS/KK
HYDROLOGY...PC



000
FXUS61 KRNK 030552
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1252 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THEN FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1000 PM EST MONDAY...

1033 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER OHIO. THIS HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST OVERNIGHT PROVIDING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.
A STATIONARY FRONT WAS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH...EXTENDING FROM
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA SOUTHWEST TO JACKSON MS. THIS STATIONARY
FROM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING NORTH OVERNIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT RESULTING IN THE RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE AREA BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. QUESTION TO BE ANSWERED IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR PRECIPITATION. THE CLOSEST THING ON RADAR AT
THE MOMENT IS OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BETWEEN ASHEVILLE NC
AND ATLANTA GA.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CERTAINLY BE IN A POSITION TO PROVIDE ENOUGH
COLD AIR FOR A WINTRY FORM OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY MORNING. THE
QUESTION IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH DEPTH TO THE MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE PRECIPITATION. BOTH THE HRRR AND RNKWRF SUGGEST ONLY TRACE
AMOUNTS TO OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND NOON TUESDAY WITH THE LARGER
SCALE MODELS PRODUCING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. TRACE ICE IS
CERTAINLY ENOUGH TO BE A NUISANCE...BUT THIS IS NOT GOING TO BE A
WIDESPREAD EVENT.

THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH PRECIP PRODUCTION FOR TUESDAY IS THE LACK OF
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN THE M8-M12 DEG C DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE DRY WITHIN THIS LAYER...ALL OF THE
SATURATION TAKING PLACE IN A LOWER LAYER BETWEEN +3 DEG C AND -3
DEG C. UNLESS THERE IS SOME SEEDER FEEDER PROCESS THAT DEVELOPS
INOF THE WARM FRONT...THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS THE PTYPE WILL
BE EITHER DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE PENDING SURFACE TEMPERATURE
AT THE TIME. THE CRITICAL WINDOW FOR THE FREEZING PRECIPITATION
WILL BE DURING THE MORNING...SO STILL SEE THE NEED FOR WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIALLY LIGHT ICING THAT
MAY OCCUR...KEEPING IN MIND THAT EVEN A VERY LIGHT COATING OF ICE
ON AN UNTREATED SURFACE CAN POSE A TRAVEL/WALKING HAZARD.

LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S IN THE
COLDEST VALLEYS TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE PIEDMONT. WARM AIR WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY CHANGING PRECIPITATION OVER TO
ALL LIQUID TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST WILL BE THE SLOWEST TO TRANSITION. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER
50S IN THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST MONDAY...

COMPLICATED SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH MULTIPLE CONCERNS. TO BEGIN
TUESDAY NIGHT...ANY REMNANTS OF EARLIER WEDGE WILL BE LONG GONE TO
THE NORTHEAST WITH THE AREA SOLIDLY IN THE WARM SECTOR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING AND CONTINUING TO RISE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON THE HEELS OF A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
LLJ. CONSEQUENTLY...ANY ASSOCIATED WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION
WILL ALSO HAVE LIFTED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. NOW...THE
ATTENTION SHIFTS TO THE ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF...590+ DM AT
THAT...WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR
WILL PLUNGE INITIALLY SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. AS
THE ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONT SLOWS ITS PUSH INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST STATES THANKS TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE
AND THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. THIS HOLDS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
WEST OF OUR CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MUCH OF THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS. FINALLY...WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...THE FRONT WILL BEGIN A BETTER SOUTHEASTWARD
PUSH AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY KICKS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WOULD
EXPECT HEAVIER RAIN TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA BY
00Z WED...THEN BEGIN TO SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.

MEANWHILE...PART OF THE UPPER TROUGH LAGS BEHIND AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES IN RESPONSE. THIS
WILL FURTHER DELAY THE PUSH OF THE PRECIPITATION INTO/THROUGH THE
CWA...BUT PERHAPS NOT THE SHALLOW COLD ARCTIC AIR ONCE IT MANGES
TO CROSS THE APPALACHIANS. QUITE A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS PRESENTED
BY THE MODELS AND WPC AS TO THE WINTER WEATHER THREAT THURSDAY
GIVEN THAT THIS IS FAR FROM A NORMAL SYNOPTIC SITUATION FOR A SNOW
EVENT IN THIS REGION. THE BIG QUESTION IS NOT WHETHER OR NOT THERE
WILL BE PRECIPITATION...BUT HOW QUICKLY WILL THE COLD AIR SPREAD
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...BEFORE THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT...AND HOW QUICKLY WILL THE COLD AIR BECOME
DEEP ENOUGH TO CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION TO SNOW. AM INCLINED AT
THIS POINT TO THROW OUT RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN SCENARIOS...NOT ONLY
BECAUSE IT IS NOT CLIMATOLOGICALLY OR SYNOPTICALLY FAVORABLE IN
THIS SITUATION...BUT THINKING IS THAT COLD AIR WILL BECOME DEEP
ENOUGH QUICKLY ENOUGH TO CHANGE RAIN OVER TO SNOW...OTHER THAN A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CHANGEOVER.
FURTHERMORE...GROUND TEMPS WILL NOT SUPPORT FZRA AT THE CHANGEOVER
TIME AS THE SOUNDING COLUMN COOLS ISOTHERMALLY. FINALLY...THIS IS
YET AGAIN A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR MASS...SO ONCE IT ENTERS THE
REGION...COOLING WILL BE QUICK...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-81. FOR SNOW
AMOUNTS...A PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE...FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH WPC
WWD...IS 4-5 INCHES NORTH...2-4 INCHES CENTRAL/WESTERN AREAS...1-2
INCHES VA PIEDMONT...LITTLE TO NONE NC PIEDMONT.

SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THE FLOOD
THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH COMBINED RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT. DID
ADVERTISE A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN WEDNESDAY EVENING FROM WEST TO
EAST...BUT HAVE REDUCED THE TIME PERIOD OF SUCH COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGES.

TEMPERATURE WISE...A LOT OF NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO RISE TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING AND REMAINING MILD/ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL
THE ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES IN THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PIEDMONT
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL
THURSDAY MORNING. LIKEWISE...A NON-DIURNAL COOLING TREND EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY AS ARCTIC AIR SPREADS INTO THE REGION.
THE GFS IN PARTICULAR SHOW SFC TEMPS BELOW ZERO IN OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES BY FRIDAY MORNING. GIVEN THAT IT IS EARLY MARCH AND THE
850MB TEMPS ARE ONLY AROUND -16C...AS COMPARED TO -26C A COUPLE OF
WEEKS AGO...I FIND THIS SOMEWHAT EXTREME. NONETHELESS...IT IS A
VERY COLD AIR MASS AND WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EST MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...AND BE IN
CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGH WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...AND MAKE ITS
WAY TO THE COAST BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A TREND TOWARD
MILDER CONDITIONS AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA BECOMES
GRADUALLY MORE SW-W...WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND RISING 850 TEMPS
TAKE PLACE.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY A GENEROUS AMOUNT OF VARIATIONS IN THE MODELS
TAKE PLACE. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM EVENTUALLY COME INTO
AGREEMENT OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF CONUS BY
MONDAY OR TUESDAY OR NEXT WEEK...HOW THE SOLUTIONS COME TO BE THAT
WAY HAVE NOTABLE DIFFERENCES. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN
ESTABLISHING THE TROUGH IN THE EAST BY SUNDAY...AND ANY SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEMS EASILY BYPASS OUR REGION EXITING THE U.S. NEAR THE
GA/FL BORDER. THE ECWMF IS NOT A QUICK TO ESTABLISH AN EAST COAST
TROUGH...AND A SUCH...SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS HAVE A BETTER
OPPORTUNITY TO PROGRESS NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR REGION ON THE EAST
SIDE OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

OUR FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BE A CONSENSUS OF THESE
TWO...WITH IT RESEMBLING A WATERED DOWN VERSION OF THE ECWMF IN
TERMS OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
ALSO STAYING ON MORE OF THE MILD SIDE THAN COLD IN REGARDS TO
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1250 AM EST TUESDAY...

MVFR CIGS WILL START PROGRESSES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A WARM FRONT HEADING TOWARD THE AREA. ALONG WITH
THE FRONT WILL COME LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY...MANY
AREAS WILL HAVE LOWERED TO LIFR/IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS DUE TO THE
PRECIPITATION AND MIST. THE BULK OF THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL
BE CONFINED TO NORTH A LINE FROM KBLF-KROA-KLYH DURING THE LATE
MORNING. BY THE AFTERNOON...SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MILD
ENOUGH FOR A WIDESPREAD AREA OF RAIN.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE NIGHT AND GRADUALLY VEER TO
THE SOUTHEAST. ON TUESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AND WINDS AT 850 MB WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
45 TO 50 KTS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT TERMINALS AT HIGHER ELEVATION.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
PERIOD.

EXTENDED FORECAST...

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT ALL OF THE REGION
WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY
AND WINTER PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

FRIDAY SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR WEATHER.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 300 PM EST MONDAY

LIKELY TO SEE SOME SUBSTANTIAL RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS IN
RESPONSE TO UPCOMING RAIN EVENT AND SNOWMELT IN THE
MOUNTAINS...QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT HOW SUBSTANTIAL. SIGNIFICANT SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE NOW CONFINED TO PARTS OF THE UPPER JAMES AND
GREENBRIER RIVER BASINS WHERE THE LATEST AVAILABLE ESTIMATES FROM
THE NATIONAL OPERATIONAL REMOTE SENSING CENTER SHOW ROUGHLY 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT WITH ISOLATED 4 INCHES IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE GREENBRIER. IN THE OTHER MAJOR RIVER
BASINS...NEW...ROANOKE/DAN AND TENNESSEE... MELTING OVER THE
WEEKEND AND TODAY HAS REDUCED THE SNOW TO LESS THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW
WATER AND IN MOST PLACES ZERO.

THE OTHER ELEMENT OF COURSE IS THE QPF. 12Z MODELS (INCLUDING
LATEST EC) HAVE NUDGED THE HEAVIEST QPF A LITTLE MORE TO THE
WEST...REDUCING AMOUNTS IN THE JAMES AND GREENBRIER SOME. IT STILL
APPEARS AS IF 1 TO 2 INCHES COULD FALL ACROSS THE WESTERN BASINS
BY 12Z THURSDAY AND COMBINED WITH SNOWMELT THIS COULD PRODUCE AT
LEAST MINOR RIVER FLOODING ALONG THE GREENBRIER AND POSSIBLY THE
UPPER JAMES. GUIDANCE RECEIVED FROM OHRFC THIS MORNING SUGGESTED
MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT ALDERSON WV ON THE GREENBRIER LIKELY BY EARLY
THURSDAY WITH THE COMBINED SNOWMELT AND QPF. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTIES WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ018>020-022>024-034-035-045>047.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ007-009-
     010-012-015-016.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 1 PM
     EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ011-013-014-017-032-033-043.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ001-002-
     018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ507-508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR WVZ042.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 1 PM
     EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ043-044.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/RAB
NEAR TERM...KK/PM
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS/DS/KK
HYDROLOGY...PC



000
FXUS61 KRNK 030552
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1252 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THEN FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1000 PM EST MONDAY...

1033 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER OHIO. THIS HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST OVERNIGHT PROVIDING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.
A STATIONARY FRONT WAS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH...EXTENDING FROM
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA SOUTHWEST TO JACKSON MS. THIS STATIONARY
FROM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING NORTH OVERNIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT RESULTING IN THE RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE AREA BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. QUESTION TO BE ANSWERED IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR PRECIPITATION. THE CLOSEST THING ON RADAR AT
THE MOMENT IS OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BETWEEN ASHEVILLE NC
AND ATLANTA GA.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CERTAINLY BE IN A POSITION TO PROVIDE ENOUGH
COLD AIR FOR A WINTRY FORM OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY MORNING. THE
QUESTION IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH DEPTH TO THE MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE PRECIPITATION. BOTH THE HRRR AND RNKWRF SUGGEST ONLY TRACE
AMOUNTS TO OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND NOON TUESDAY WITH THE LARGER
SCALE MODELS PRODUCING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. TRACE ICE IS
CERTAINLY ENOUGH TO BE A NUISANCE...BUT THIS IS NOT GOING TO BE A
WIDESPREAD EVENT.

THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH PRECIP PRODUCTION FOR TUESDAY IS THE LACK OF
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN THE M8-M12 DEG C DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE DRY WITHIN THIS LAYER...ALL OF THE
SATURATION TAKING PLACE IN A LOWER LAYER BETWEEN +3 DEG C AND -3
DEG C. UNLESS THERE IS SOME SEEDER FEEDER PROCESS THAT DEVELOPS
INOF THE WARM FRONT...THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS THE PTYPE WILL
BE EITHER DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE PENDING SURFACE TEMPERATURE
AT THE TIME. THE CRITICAL WINDOW FOR THE FREEZING PRECIPITATION
WILL BE DURING THE MORNING...SO STILL SEE THE NEED FOR WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIALLY LIGHT ICING THAT
MAY OCCUR...KEEPING IN MIND THAT EVEN A VERY LIGHT COATING OF ICE
ON AN UNTREATED SURFACE CAN POSE A TRAVEL/WALKING HAZARD.

LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S IN THE
COLDEST VALLEYS TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE PIEDMONT. WARM AIR WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY CHANGING PRECIPITATION OVER TO
ALL LIQUID TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST WILL BE THE SLOWEST TO TRANSITION. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER
50S IN THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST MONDAY...

COMPLICATED SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH MULTIPLE CONCERNS. TO BEGIN
TUESDAY NIGHT...ANY REMNANTS OF EARLIER WEDGE WILL BE LONG GONE TO
THE NORTHEAST WITH THE AREA SOLIDLY IN THE WARM SECTOR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING AND CONTINUING TO RISE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON THE HEELS OF A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
LLJ. CONSEQUENTLY...ANY ASSOCIATED WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION
WILL ALSO HAVE LIFTED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. NOW...THE
ATTENTION SHIFTS TO THE ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF...590+ DM AT
THAT...WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR
WILL PLUNGE INITIALLY SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. AS
THE ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONT SLOWS ITS PUSH INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST STATES THANKS TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE
AND THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. THIS HOLDS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
WEST OF OUR CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MUCH OF THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS. FINALLY...WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...THE FRONT WILL BEGIN A BETTER SOUTHEASTWARD
PUSH AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY KICKS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WOULD
EXPECT HEAVIER RAIN TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA BY
00Z WED...THEN BEGIN TO SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.

MEANWHILE...PART OF THE UPPER TROUGH LAGS BEHIND AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES IN RESPONSE. THIS
WILL FURTHER DELAY THE PUSH OF THE PRECIPITATION INTO/THROUGH THE
CWA...BUT PERHAPS NOT THE SHALLOW COLD ARCTIC AIR ONCE IT MANGES
TO CROSS THE APPALACHIANS. QUITE A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS PRESENTED
BY THE MODELS AND WPC AS TO THE WINTER WEATHER THREAT THURSDAY
GIVEN THAT THIS IS FAR FROM A NORMAL SYNOPTIC SITUATION FOR A SNOW
EVENT IN THIS REGION. THE BIG QUESTION IS NOT WHETHER OR NOT THERE
WILL BE PRECIPITATION...BUT HOW QUICKLY WILL THE COLD AIR SPREAD
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...BEFORE THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT...AND HOW QUICKLY WILL THE COLD AIR BECOME
DEEP ENOUGH TO CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION TO SNOW. AM INCLINED AT
THIS POINT TO THROW OUT RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN SCENARIOS...NOT ONLY
BECAUSE IT IS NOT CLIMATOLOGICALLY OR SYNOPTICALLY FAVORABLE IN
THIS SITUATION...BUT THINKING IS THAT COLD AIR WILL BECOME DEEP
ENOUGH QUICKLY ENOUGH TO CHANGE RAIN OVER TO SNOW...OTHER THAN A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CHANGEOVER.
FURTHERMORE...GROUND TEMPS WILL NOT SUPPORT FZRA AT THE CHANGEOVER
TIME AS THE SOUNDING COLUMN COOLS ISOTHERMALLY. FINALLY...THIS IS
YET AGAIN A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR MASS...SO ONCE IT ENTERS THE
REGION...COOLING WILL BE QUICK...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-81. FOR SNOW
AMOUNTS...A PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE...FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH WPC
WWD...IS 4-5 INCHES NORTH...2-4 INCHES CENTRAL/WESTERN AREAS...1-2
INCHES VA PIEDMONT...LITTLE TO NONE NC PIEDMONT.

SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THE FLOOD
THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH COMBINED RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT. DID
ADVERTISE A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN WEDNESDAY EVENING FROM WEST TO
EAST...BUT HAVE REDUCED THE TIME PERIOD OF SUCH COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGES.

TEMPERATURE WISE...A LOT OF NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO RISE TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING AND REMAINING MILD/ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL
THE ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES IN THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PIEDMONT
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL
THURSDAY MORNING. LIKEWISE...A NON-DIURNAL COOLING TREND EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY AS ARCTIC AIR SPREADS INTO THE REGION.
THE GFS IN PARTICULAR SHOW SFC TEMPS BELOW ZERO IN OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES BY FRIDAY MORNING. GIVEN THAT IT IS EARLY MARCH AND THE
850MB TEMPS ARE ONLY AROUND -16C...AS COMPARED TO -26C A COUPLE OF
WEEKS AGO...I FIND THIS SOMEWHAT EXTREME. NONETHELESS...IT IS A
VERY COLD AIR MASS AND WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EST MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...AND BE IN
CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGH WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...AND MAKE ITS
WAY TO THE COAST BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A TREND TOWARD
MILDER CONDITIONS AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA BECOMES
GRADUALLY MORE SW-W...WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND RISING 850 TEMPS
TAKE PLACE.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY A GENEROUS AMOUNT OF VARIATIONS IN THE MODELS
TAKE PLACE. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM EVENTUALLY COME INTO
AGREEMENT OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF CONUS BY
MONDAY OR TUESDAY OR NEXT WEEK...HOW THE SOLUTIONS COME TO BE THAT
WAY HAVE NOTABLE DIFFERENCES. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN
ESTABLISHING THE TROUGH IN THE EAST BY SUNDAY...AND ANY SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEMS EASILY BYPASS OUR REGION EXITING THE U.S. NEAR THE
GA/FL BORDER. THE ECWMF IS NOT A QUICK TO ESTABLISH AN EAST COAST
TROUGH...AND A SUCH...SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS HAVE A BETTER
OPPORTUNITY TO PROGRESS NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR REGION ON THE EAST
SIDE OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

OUR FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BE A CONSENSUS OF THESE
TWO...WITH IT RESEMBLING A WATERED DOWN VERSION OF THE ECWMF IN
TERMS OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
ALSO STAYING ON MORE OF THE MILD SIDE THAN COLD IN REGARDS TO
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1250 AM EST TUESDAY...

MVFR CIGS WILL START PROGRESSES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A WARM FRONT HEADING TOWARD THE AREA. ALONG WITH
THE FRONT WILL COME LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY...MANY
AREAS WILL HAVE LOWERED TO LIFR/IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS DUE TO THE
PRECIPITATION AND MIST. THE BULK OF THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL
BE CONFINED TO NORTH A LINE FROM KBLF-KROA-KLYH DURING THE LATE
MORNING. BY THE AFTERNOON...SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MILD
ENOUGH FOR A WIDESPREAD AREA OF RAIN.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE NIGHT AND GRADUALLY VEER TO
THE SOUTHEAST. ON TUESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AND WINDS AT 850 MB WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
45 TO 50 KTS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT TERMINALS AT HIGHER ELEVATION.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
PERIOD.

EXTENDED FORECAST...

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT ALL OF THE REGION
WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY
AND WINTER PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

FRIDAY SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR WEATHER.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 300 PM EST MONDAY

LIKELY TO SEE SOME SUBSTANTIAL RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS IN
RESPONSE TO UPCOMING RAIN EVENT AND SNOWMELT IN THE
MOUNTAINS...QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT HOW SUBSTANTIAL. SIGNIFICANT SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE NOW CONFINED TO PARTS OF THE UPPER JAMES AND
GREENBRIER RIVER BASINS WHERE THE LATEST AVAILABLE ESTIMATES FROM
THE NATIONAL OPERATIONAL REMOTE SENSING CENTER SHOW ROUGHLY 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT WITH ISOLATED 4 INCHES IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE GREENBRIER. IN THE OTHER MAJOR RIVER
BASINS...NEW...ROANOKE/DAN AND TENNESSEE... MELTING OVER THE
WEEKEND AND TODAY HAS REDUCED THE SNOW TO LESS THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW
WATER AND IN MOST PLACES ZERO.

THE OTHER ELEMENT OF COURSE IS THE QPF. 12Z MODELS (INCLUDING
LATEST EC) HAVE NUDGED THE HEAVIEST QPF A LITTLE MORE TO THE
WEST...REDUCING AMOUNTS IN THE JAMES AND GREENBRIER SOME. IT STILL
APPEARS AS IF 1 TO 2 INCHES COULD FALL ACROSS THE WESTERN BASINS
BY 12Z THURSDAY AND COMBINED WITH SNOWMELT THIS COULD PRODUCE AT
LEAST MINOR RIVER FLOODING ALONG THE GREENBRIER AND POSSIBLY THE
UPPER JAMES. GUIDANCE RECEIVED FROM OHRFC THIS MORNING SUGGESTED
MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT ALDERSON WV ON THE GREENBRIER LIKELY BY EARLY
THURSDAY WITH THE COMBINED SNOWMELT AND QPF. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTIES WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ018>020-022>024-034-035-045>047.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ007-009-
     010-012-015-016.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 1 PM
     EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ011-013-014-017-032-033-043.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ001-002-
     018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ507-508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR WVZ042.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 1 PM
     EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ043-044.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/RAB
NEAR TERM...KK/PM
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS/DS/KK
HYDROLOGY...PC



000
FXUS61 KRNK 030308
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1008 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THEN FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1000 PM EST MONDAY...

1033 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER OHIO. THIS HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST OVERNIGHT PROVIDING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.
A STATIONARY FRONT WAS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH...EXTENDING FROM
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA SOUTHWEST TO JACKSON MS. THIS STATIONARY
FROM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING NORTH OVERNIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT RESULTING IN THE RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE AREA BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. QUESTION TO BE ANSWERED IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR PRECIPITATION. THE CLOSEST THING ON RADAR AT
THE MOMENT IS OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BETWEEN ASHVILLE NC
AND ATLANTA GA.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CERTAINLY BE IN A POSITION TO PROVIDE ENOUGH
COLD AIR FOR A WINTRY FORM OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY MORNING. THE
QUESTION IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH DEPTH TO THE MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE PRECIPITATION. BOTH THE HRRR AND RNKWRF SUGGEST ONLY TRACE
AMOUNTS TO OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND NOON TUESDAY WITH THE LARGER
SCALE MODELS PRODUCING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. TRACE ICE IS
CERTAINLY ENOUGH TO BE A NUSCIANCE...BUT THIS IS NOT GOING TO BE
A WIDESPREAD EVENT.

THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH PRECIP PRODUCTION FOR TUESDAY IS THE LACK OF
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN THE M8-M12 DEG C DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE DRY WITHIN THIS LAYER...ALL OF THE
SATURATION TAKING PLACE IN A LOWER LAYER BETWEEN +3 DEG C AND -3
DEG C. UNLESS THERE IS SOME SEEDER FEEDER PROCESS THAT DEVELOPS
INOF THE WARM FRONT...THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS THE PYTYPE WILL
BE EITHER DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE PENDING SURFACE TEMEPRATURE
AT THE TIME. THE CRITICAL WINDOW FOR THE FREEZING PRECIPITATION
WILL BE DURING THE MORNING...SO STILL SEE THE NEED FOR WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIALLY LIGHT ICING THAT
MAY OCCUR...KEEPING IN MIND THAT EVEN A VERY LIGHT COATING OF ICE
ON AN UNTREATED SURFACE CAN POSE A TRAVEL/WALKING HAZARD.

LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S IN THE
COLDEST VALLEYS TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE PIEDMONT. WARM AIR WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY CHANGING PRECIPITATION OVER TO
ALL LIQUID TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST WILL BE THE SLOWEST TO TRANSITION. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER
50S IN THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST MONDAY...

COMPLICATED SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH MULTIPLE CONCERNS. TO BEGIN
TUESDAY NIGHT...ANY REMNANTS OF EARLIER WEDGE WILL BE LONG GONE TO
THE NORTHEAST WITH THE AREA SOLIDLY IN THE WARM SECTOR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING AND CONTINUING TO RISE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON THE HEELS OF A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
LLJ. CONSEQUENTLY...ANY ASSOCIATED WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION
WILL ALSO HAVE LIFTED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. NOW...THE
ATTENTION SHIFTS TO THE ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF...590+ DM AT
THAT...WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR
WILL PLUNGE INITIALLY SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. AS
THE ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONT SLOWS ITS PUSH INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST STATES THANKS TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE
AND THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. THIS HOLDS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
WEST OF OUR CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MUCH OF THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS. FINALLY...WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...THE FRONT WILL BEGIN A BETTER SOUTHEASTWARD
PUSH AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY KICKS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WOULD
EXPECT HEAVIER RAIN TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA BY
00Z WED...THEN BEGIN TO SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.

MEANWHILE...PART OF THE UPPER TROUGH LAGS BEHIND AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES IN RESPONSE. THIS
WILL FURTHER DELAY THE PUSH OF THE PRECIPITATION INTO/THROUGH THE
CWA...BUT PERHAPS NOT THE SHALLOW COLD ARCTIC AIR ONCE IT MANGES
TO CROSS THE APPALACHIANS. QUITE A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS PRESENTED
BY THE MODELS AND WPC AS TO THE WINTER WEATHER THREAT THURSDAY
GIVEN THAT THIS IS FAR FROM A NORMAL SYNOPTIC SITUATION FOR A SNOW
EVENT IN THIS REGION. THE BIG QUESTION IS NOT WHETHER OR NOT THERE
WILL BE PRECIPITATION...BUT HOW QUICKLY WILL THE COLD AIR SPREAD
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...BEFORE THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT...AND HOW QUICKLY WILL THE COLD AIR BECOME
DEEP ENOUGH TO CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION TO SNOW. AM INCLINED AT
THIS POINT TO THROW OUT RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN SCENARIOS...NOT ONLY
BECAUSE IT IS NOT CLIMATOLOGICALLY OR SYNOPTICALLY FAVORABLE IN
THIS SITUATION...BUT THINKING IS THAT COLD AIR WILL BECOME DEEP
ENOUGH QUICKLY ENOUGH TO CHANGE RAIN OVER TO SNOW...OTHER THAN A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CHANGEOVER.
FURTHERMORE...GROUND TEMPS WILL NOT SUPPORT FZRA AT THE CHANGEOVER
TIME AS THE SOUNDING COLUMN COOLS ISOTHERMALLY. FINALLY...THIS IS
YET AGAIN A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR MASS...SO ONCE IT ENTERS THE
REGION...COOLING WILL BE QUICK...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-81. FOR SNOW
AMOUNTS...A PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE...FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH WPC
WWD...IS 4-5 INCHES NORTH...2-4 INCHES CENTRAL/WESTERN AREAS...1-2
INCHES VA PIEDMONT...LITTLE TO NONE NC PIEDMONT.

SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THE FLOOD
THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH COMBINED RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT. DID
ADVERTISE A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN WEDNESDAY EVENING FROM WEST TO
EAST...BUT HAVE REDUCED THE TIME PERIOD OF SUCH COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGES.

TEMPERATURE WISE...A LOT OF NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO RISE TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING AND REMAINING MILD/ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL
THE ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES IN THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PIEDMONT
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL
THURSDAY MORNING. LIKEWISE...A NON-DIURNAL COOLING TREND EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY AS ARCTIC AIR SPREADS INTO THE REGION.
THE GFS IN PARTICULAR SHOW SFC TEMPS BELOW ZERO IN OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES BY FRIDAY MORNING. GIVEN THAT IT IS EARLY MARCH AND THE
850MB TEMPS ARE ONLY AROUND -16C...AS COMPARED TO -26C A COUPLE OF
WEEKS AGO...I FIND THIS SOMEWHAT EXTREME. NONETHELESS...IT IS A
VERY COLD AIR MASS AND WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EST MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...AND BE IN
CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGH WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...AND MAKE ITS
WAY TO THE COAST BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A TREND TOWARD
MILDER CONDITIONS AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA BECOMES
GRADUALLY MORE SW-W...WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND RISING 850 TEMPS
TAKE PLACE.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY A GENEROUS AMOUNT OF VARIATIONS IN THE MODELS
TAKE PLACE. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM EVENTUALLY COME INTO
AGREEMENT OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF CONUS BY
MONDAY OR TUESDAY OR NEXT WEEK...HOW THE SOLUTIONS COME TO BE THAT
WAY HAVE NOTABLE DIFFERENCES. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN
ESTABLISHING THE TROUGH IN THE EAST BY SUNDAY...AND ANY SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEMS EASILY BYPASS OUR REGION EXITING THE U.S. NEAR THE
GA/FL BORDER. THE ECWMF IS NOT A QUICK TO ESTABLISH AN EAST COAST
TROUGH...AND A SUCH...SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS HAVE A BETTER
OPPORTUNITY TO PROGRESS NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR REGION ON THE EAST
SIDE OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

OUR FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BE A CONSENSUS OF THESE
TWO...WITH IT RESEMBLING A WATERED DOWN VERSION OF THE ECWMF IN
TERMS OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
ALSO STAYING ON MORE OF THE MILD SIDE THAN COLD IN REGARDS TO
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM EST MONDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH
ROUGHLY 04Z/11PM. AFTER THIS TIME...MVFR CIGS WILL START
PROGRESSES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN CONJUCTION WITH A WARM
FRONT HEADING TOWARD THE AREA. ALONG WITH THE FRONT WILL COME
LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET. BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY...MANY AREAS WILL HAVE LOWERED
TO LIFR/IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS DUE TO THE PRECIPITATION AND
MIST. THE BULK OF THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO
NORTH A LINE FROM KBLF-KROA-KLYH DURING THE LATE MORNING. BY THE
AFTERNOON...SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MILD ENOUGH FOR A
WIDESPREAD AREA OF PLAIN RAIN. LIFR/IFR CIGS AND IFR/MVFR VSBYS
WILL BE THE NORM DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE NIGHT AND GRADUALLY VEER NORTH
TO SOUTHEAST. ON TUESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST...AND WINDS AT 850 MB WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 45 TO
50 KTS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT TERMINALS AT HIGHER ELEVATION.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
PERIOD.

EXTENDED FORECAST...

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT ALL OF THE REGION
WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY
AND WINTER PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

FRIDAY SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR WEATHER.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 300 PM EST MONDAY

LIKELY TO SEE SOME SUBSTANTIAL RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS IN
RESPONSE TO UPCOMING RAIN EVENT AND SNOWMELT IN THE
MOUNTAINS...QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT HOW SUBSTANTIAL. SIGNIFICANT SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE NOW CONFINED TO PARTS OF THE UPPER JAMES AND
GREENBRIER RIVER BASINS WHERE THE LATEST AVAILABLE ESTIMATES FROM
THE NATIONAL OPERATIONAL REMOTE SENSING CENTER SHOW ROUGHLY 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT WITH ISOLATED 4 INCHES IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE GREENBRIER. IN THE OTHER MAJOR RIVER
BASINS...NEW...ROANOKE/DAN AND TENNESSEE... MELTING OVER THE
WEEKEND AND TODAY HAS REDUCED THE SNOW TO LESS THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW
WATER AND IN MOST PLACES ZERO. THE OTHER ELEMENT OF COURSE IS THE
QPF. 12Z MODELS (INCLUDING LATEST EC) HAVE NUDGED THE HEAVIEST
QPF A LITTLE MORE TO THE WEST...REDUCING AMOUNTS IN THE JAMES AND
GREENBRIER SOME. IT STILL APPEARS AS IF 1 TO 2 INCHES COULD FALL
ACROSS THE WESTERN BASINS BY 12Z THURSDAY AND COMBINED WITH
SNOWMELT THIS COULD PRODUCE AT LEAST MINOR RIVER FLOODING ALONG
THE GREENBRIER AND POSSIBLY THE UPPER JAMES. GUIDANCE RECEIVED
FROM OHRFC THIS MORNING SUGGESTED MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT ALDERSON WV
ON THE GREENBRIER LIKELY BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH THE COMBINED
SNOWMELT AND QPF. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTIES WILL
HOLD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     VAZ018>020-022>024-034-035-045>047.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ007-009-
     010-012-015-016.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     VAZ011-013-014-017-032-033-043.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ001-002-
     018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     WVZ507-508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ042.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     WVZ043-044.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/RAB
NEAR TERM...KK/PM
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...DS/KK
HYDROLOGY...PC



000
FXUS61 KRNK 030308
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1008 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THEN FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1000 PM EST MONDAY...

1033 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER OHIO. THIS HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST OVERNIGHT PROVIDING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.
A STATIONARY FRONT WAS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH...EXTENDING FROM
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA SOUTHWEST TO JACKSON MS. THIS STATIONARY
FROM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING NORTH OVERNIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT RESULTING IN THE RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE AREA BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. QUESTION TO BE ANSWERED IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR PRECIPITATION. THE CLOSEST THING ON RADAR AT
THE MOMENT IS OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BETWEEN ASHVILLE NC
AND ATLANTA GA.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CERTAINLY BE IN A POSITION TO PROVIDE ENOUGH
COLD AIR FOR A WINTRY FORM OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY MORNING. THE
QUESTION IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH DEPTH TO THE MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE PRECIPITATION. BOTH THE HRRR AND RNKWRF SUGGEST ONLY TRACE
AMOUNTS TO OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND NOON TUESDAY WITH THE LARGER
SCALE MODELS PRODUCING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. TRACE ICE IS
CERTAINLY ENOUGH TO BE A NUSCIANCE...BUT THIS IS NOT GOING TO BE
A WIDESPREAD EVENT.

THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH PRECIP PRODUCTION FOR TUESDAY IS THE LACK OF
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN THE M8-M12 DEG C DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE DRY WITHIN THIS LAYER...ALL OF THE
SATURATION TAKING PLACE IN A LOWER LAYER BETWEEN +3 DEG C AND -3
DEG C. UNLESS THERE IS SOME SEEDER FEEDER PROCESS THAT DEVELOPS
INOF THE WARM FRONT...THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS THE PYTYPE WILL
BE EITHER DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE PENDING SURFACE TEMEPRATURE
AT THE TIME. THE CRITICAL WINDOW FOR THE FREEZING PRECIPITATION
WILL BE DURING THE MORNING...SO STILL SEE THE NEED FOR WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIALLY LIGHT ICING THAT
MAY OCCUR...KEEPING IN MIND THAT EVEN A VERY LIGHT COATING OF ICE
ON AN UNTREATED SURFACE CAN POSE A TRAVEL/WALKING HAZARD.

LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S IN THE
COLDEST VALLEYS TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE PIEDMONT. WARM AIR WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY CHANGING PRECIPITATION OVER TO
ALL LIQUID TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST WILL BE THE SLOWEST TO TRANSITION. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER
50S IN THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST MONDAY...

COMPLICATED SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH MULTIPLE CONCERNS. TO BEGIN
TUESDAY NIGHT...ANY REMNANTS OF EARLIER WEDGE WILL BE LONG GONE TO
THE NORTHEAST WITH THE AREA SOLIDLY IN THE WARM SECTOR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING AND CONTINUING TO RISE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON THE HEELS OF A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
LLJ. CONSEQUENTLY...ANY ASSOCIATED WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION
WILL ALSO HAVE LIFTED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. NOW...THE
ATTENTION SHIFTS TO THE ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF...590+ DM AT
THAT...WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR
WILL PLUNGE INITIALLY SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. AS
THE ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONT SLOWS ITS PUSH INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST STATES THANKS TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE
AND THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. THIS HOLDS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
WEST OF OUR CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MUCH OF THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS. FINALLY...WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...THE FRONT WILL BEGIN A BETTER SOUTHEASTWARD
PUSH AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY KICKS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WOULD
EXPECT HEAVIER RAIN TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA BY
00Z WED...THEN BEGIN TO SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.

MEANWHILE...PART OF THE UPPER TROUGH LAGS BEHIND AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES IN RESPONSE. THIS
WILL FURTHER DELAY THE PUSH OF THE PRECIPITATION INTO/THROUGH THE
CWA...BUT PERHAPS NOT THE SHALLOW COLD ARCTIC AIR ONCE IT MANGES
TO CROSS THE APPALACHIANS. QUITE A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS PRESENTED
BY THE MODELS AND WPC AS TO THE WINTER WEATHER THREAT THURSDAY
GIVEN THAT THIS IS FAR FROM A NORMAL SYNOPTIC SITUATION FOR A SNOW
EVENT IN THIS REGION. THE BIG QUESTION IS NOT WHETHER OR NOT THERE
WILL BE PRECIPITATION...BUT HOW QUICKLY WILL THE COLD AIR SPREAD
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...BEFORE THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT...AND HOW QUICKLY WILL THE COLD AIR BECOME
DEEP ENOUGH TO CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION TO SNOW. AM INCLINED AT
THIS POINT TO THROW OUT RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN SCENARIOS...NOT ONLY
BECAUSE IT IS NOT CLIMATOLOGICALLY OR SYNOPTICALLY FAVORABLE IN
THIS SITUATION...BUT THINKING IS THAT COLD AIR WILL BECOME DEEP
ENOUGH QUICKLY ENOUGH TO CHANGE RAIN OVER TO SNOW...OTHER THAN A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CHANGEOVER.
FURTHERMORE...GROUND TEMPS WILL NOT SUPPORT FZRA AT THE CHANGEOVER
TIME AS THE SOUNDING COLUMN COOLS ISOTHERMALLY. FINALLY...THIS IS
YET AGAIN A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR MASS...SO ONCE IT ENTERS THE
REGION...COOLING WILL BE QUICK...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-81. FOR SNOW
AMOUNTS...A PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE...FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH WPC
WWD...IS 4-5 INCHES NORTH...2-4 INCHES CENTRAL/WESTERN AREAS...1-2
INCHES VA PIEDMONT...LITTLE TO NONE NC PIEDMONT.

SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THE FLOOD
THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH COMBINED RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT. DID
ADVERTISE A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN WEDNESDAY EVENING FROM WEST TO
EAST...BUT HAVE REDUCED THE TIME PERIOD OF SUCH COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGES.

TEMPERATURE WISE...A LOT OF NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO RISE TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING AND REMAINING MILD/ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL
THE ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES IN THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PIEDMONT
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL
THURSDAY MORNING. LIKEWISE...A NON-DIURNAL COOLING TREND EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY AS ARCTIC AIR SPREADS INTO THE REGION.
THE GFS IN PARTICULAR SHOW SFC TEMPS BELOW ZERO IN OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES BY FRIDAY MORNING. GIVEN THAT IT IS EARLY MARCH AND THE
850MB TEMPS ARE ONLY AROUND -16C...AS COMPARED TO -26C A COUPLE OF
WEEKS AGO...I FIND THIS SOMEWHAT EXTREME. NONETHELESS...IT IS A
VERY COLD AIR MASS AND WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EST MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...AND BE IN
CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGH WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...AND MAKE ITS
WAY TO THE COAST BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A TREND TOWARD
MILDER CONDITIONS AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA BECOMES
GRADUALLY MORE SW-W...WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND RISING 850 TEMPS
TAKE PLACE.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY A GENEROUS AMOUNT OF VARIATIONS IN THE MODELS
TAKE PLACE. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM EVENTUALLY COME INTO
AGREEMENT OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF CONUS BY
MONDAY OR TUESDAY OR NEXT WEEK...HOW THE SOLUTIONS COME TO BE THAT
WAY HAVE NOTABLE DIFFERENCES. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN
ESTABLISHING THE TROUGH IN THE EAST BY SUNDAY...AND ANY SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEMS EASILY BYPASS OUR REGION EXITING THE U.S. NEAR THE
GA/FL BORDER. THE ECWMF IS NOT A QUICK TO ESTABLISH AN EAST COAST
TROUGH...AND A SUCH...SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS HAVE A BETTER
OPPORTUNITY TO PROGRESS NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR REGION ON THE EAST
SIDE OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

OUR FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BE A CONSENSUS OF THESE
TWO...WITH IT RESEMBLING A WATERED DOWN VERSION OF THE ECWMF IN
TERMS OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
ALSO STAYING ON MORE OF THE MILD SIDE THAN COLD IN REGARDS TO
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM EST MONDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH
ROUGHLY 04Z/11PM. AFTER THIS TIME...MVFR CIGS WILL START
PROGRESSES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN CONJUCTION WITH A WARM
FRONT HEADING TOWARD THE AREA. ALONG WITH THE FRONT WILL COME
LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET. BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY...MANY AREAS WILL HAVE LOWERED
TO LIFR/IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS DUE TO THE PRECIPITATION AND
MIST. THE BULK OF THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO
NORTH A LINE FROM KBLF-KROA-KLYH DURING THE LATE MORNING. BY THE
AFTERNOON...SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MILD ENOUGH FOR A
WIDESPREAD AREA OF PLAIN RAIN. LIFR/IFR CIGS AND IFR/MVFR VSBYS
WILL BE THE NORM DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE NIGHT AND GRADUALLY VEER NORTH
TO SOUTHEAST. ON TUESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST...AND WINDS AT 850 MB WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 45 TO
50 KTS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT TERMINALS AT HIGHER ELEVATION.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
PERIOD.

EXTENDED FORECAST...

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT ALL OF THE REGION
WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY
AND WINTER PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

FRIDAY SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR WEATHER.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 300 PM EST MONDAY

LIKELY TO SEE SOME SUBSTANTIAL RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS IN
RESPONSE TO UPCOMING RAIN EVENT AND SNOWMELT IN THE
MOUNTAINS...QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT HOW SUBSTANTIAL. SIGNIFICANT SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE NOW CONFINED TO PARTS OF THE UPPER JAMES AND
GREENBRIER RIVER BASINS WHERE THE LATEST AVAILABLE ESTIMATES FROM
THE NATIONAL OPERATIONAL REMOTE SENSING CENTER SHOW ROUGHLY 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT WITH ISOLATED 4 INCHES IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE GREENBRIER. IN THE OTHER MAJOR RIVER
BASINS...NEW...ROANOKE/DAN AND TENNESSEE... MELTING OVER THE
WEEKEND AND TODAY HAS REDUCED THE SNOW TO LESS THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW
WATER AND IN MOST PLACES ZERO. THE OTHER ELEMENT OF COURSE IS THE
QPF. 12Z MODELS (INCLUDING LATEST EC) HAVE NUDGED THE HEAVIEST
QPF A LITTLE MORE TO THE WEST...REDUCING AMOUNTS IN THE JAMES AND
GREENBRIER SOME. IT STILL APPEARS AS IF 1 TO 2 INCHES COULD FALL
ACROSS THE WESTERN BASINS BY 12Z THURSDAY AND COMBINED WITH
SNOWMELT THIS COULD PRODUCE AT LEAST MINOR RIVER FLOODING ALONG
THE GREENBRIER AND POSSIBLY THE UPPER JAMES. GUIDANCE RECEIVED
FROM OHRFC THIS MORNING SUGGESTED MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT ALDERSON WV
ON THE GREENBRIER LIKELY BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH THE COMBINED
SNOWMELT AND QPF. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTIES WILL
HOLD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     VAZ018>020-022>024-034-035-045>047.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ007-009-
     010-012-015-016.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     VAZ011-013-014-017-032-033-043.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ001-002-
     018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     WVZ507-508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ042.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     WVZ043-044.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/RAB
NEAR TERM...KK/PM
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...DS/KK
HYDROLOGY...PC




000
FXUS61 KRNK 030308
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1008 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THEN FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1000 PM EST MONDAY...

1033 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER OHIO. THIS HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST OVERNIGHT PROVIDING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.
A STATIONARY FRONT WAS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH...EXTENDING FROM
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA SOUTHWEST TO JACKSON MS. THIS STATIONARY
FROM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING NORTH OVERNIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT RESULTING IN THE RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE AREA BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. QUESTION TO BE ANSWERED IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR PRECIPITATION. THE CLOSEST THING ON RADAR AT
THE MOMENT IS OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BETWEEN ASHVILLE NC
AND ATLANTA GA.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CERTAINLY BE IN A POSITION TO PROVIDE ENOUGH
COLD AIR FOR A WINTRY FORM OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY MORNING. THE
QUESTION IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH DEPTH TO THE MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE PRECIPITATION. BOTH THE HRRR AND RNKWRF SUGGEST ONLY TRACE
AMOUNTS TO OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND NOON TUESDAY WITH THE LARGER
SCALE MODELS PRODUCING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. TRACE ICE IS
CERTAINLY ENOUGH TO BE A NUSCIANCE...BUT THIS IS NOT GOING TO BE
A WIDESPREAD EVENT.

THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH PRECIP PRODUCTION FOR TUESDAY IS THE LACK OF
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN THE M8-M12 DEG C DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE DRY WITHIN THIS LAYER...ALL OF THE
SATURATION TAKING PLACE IN A LOWER LAYER BETWEEN +3 DEG C AND -3
DEG C. UNLESS THERE IS SOME SEEDER FEEDER PROCESS THAT DEVELOPS
INOF THE WARM FRONT...THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS THE PYTYPE WILL
BE EITHER DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE PENDING SURFACE TEMEPRATURE
AT THE TIME. THE CRITICAL WINDOW FOR THE FREEZING PRECIPITATION
WILL BE DURING THE MORNING...SO STILL SEE THE NEED FOR WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIALLY LIGHT ICING THAT
MAY OCCUR...KEEPING IN MIND THAT EVEN A VERY LIGHT COATING OF ICE
ON AN UNTREATED SURFACE CAN POSE A TRAVEL/WALKING HAZARD.

LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S IN THE
COLDEST VALLEYS TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE PIEDMONT. WARM AIR WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY CHANGING PRECIPITATION OVER TO
ALL LIQUID TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST WILL BE THE SLOWEST TO TRANSITION. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER
50S IN THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST MONDAY...

COMPLICATED SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH MULTIPLE CONCERNS. TO BEGIN
TUESDAY NIGHT...ANY REMNANTS OF EARLIER WEDGE WILL BE LONG GONE TO
THE NORTHEAST WITH THE AREA SOLIDLY IN THE WARM SECTOR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING AND CONTINUING TO RISE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON THE HEELS OF A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
LLJ. CONSEQUENTLY...ANY ASSOCIATED WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION
WILL ALSO HAVE LIFTED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. NOW...THE
ATTENTION SHIFTS TO THE ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF...590+ DM AT
THAT...WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR
WILL PLUNGE INITIALLY SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. AS
THE ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONT SLOWS ITS PUSH INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST STATES THANKS TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE
AND THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. THIS HOLDS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
WEST OF OUR CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MUCH OF THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS. FINALLY...WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...THE FRONT WILL BEGIN A BETTER SOUTHEASTWARD
PUSH AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY KICKS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WOULD
EXPECT HEAVIER RAIN TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA BY
00Z WED...THEN BEGIN TO SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.

MEANWHILE...PART OF THE UPPER TROUGH LAGS BEHIND AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES IN RESPONSE. THIS
WILL FURTHER DELAY THE PUSH OF THE PRECIPITATION INTO/THROUGH THE
CWA...BUT PERHAPS NOT THE SHALLOW COLD ARCTIC AIR ONCE IT MANGES
TO CROSS THE APPALACHIANS. QUITE A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS PRESENTED
BY THE MODELS AND WPC AS TO THE WINTER WEATHER THREAT THURSDAY
GIVEN THAT THIS IS FAR FROM A NORMAL SYNOPTIC SITUATION FOR A SNOW
EVENT IN THIS REGION. THE BIG QUESTION IS NOT WHETHER OR NOT THERE
WILL BE PRECIPITATION...BUT HOW QUICKLY WILL THE COLD AIR SPREAD
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...BEFORE THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT...AND HOW QUICKLY WILL THE COLD AIR BECOME
DEEP ENOUGH TO CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION TO SNOW. AM INCLINED AT
THIS POINT TO THROW OUT RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN SCENARIOS...NOT ONLY
BECAUSE IT IS NOT CLIMATOLOGICALLY OR SYNOPTICALLY FAVORABLE IN
THIS SITUATION...BUT THINKING IS THAT COLD AIR WILL BECOME DEEP
ENOUGH QUICKLY ENOUGH TO CHANGE RAIN OVER TO SNOW...OTHER THAN A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CHANGEOVER.
FURTHERMORE...GROUND TEMPS WILL NOT SUPPORT FZRA AT THE CHANGEOVER
TIME AS THE SOUNDING COLUMN COOLS ISOTHERMALLY. FINALLY...THIS IS
YET AGAIN A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR MASS...SO ONCE IT ENTERS THE
REGION...COOLING WILL BE QUICK...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-81. FOR SNOW
AMOUNTS...A PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE...FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH WPC
WWD...IS 4-5 INCHES NORTH...2-4 INCHES CENTRAL/WESTERN AREAS...1-2
INCHES VA PIEDMONT...LITTLE TO NONE NC PIEDMONT.

SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THE FLOOD
THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH COMBINED RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT. DID
ADVERTISE A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN WEDNESDAY EVENING FROM WEST TO
EAST...BUT HAVE REDUCED THE TIME PERIOD OF SUCH COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGES.

TEMPERATURE WISE...A LOT OF NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO RISE TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING AND REMAINING MILD/ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL
THE ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES IN THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PIEDMONT
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL
THURSDAY MORNING. LIKEWISE...A NON-DIURNAL COOLING TREND EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY AS ARCTIC AIR SPREADS INTO THE REGION.
THE GFS IN PARTICULAR SHOW SFC TEMPS BELOW ZERO IN OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES BY FRIDAY MORNING. GIVEN THAT IT IS EARLY MARCH AND THE
850MB TEMPS ARE ONLY AROUND -16C...AS COMPARED TO -26C A COUPLE OF
WEEKS AGO...I FIND THIS SOMEWHAT EXTREME. NONETHELESS...IT IS A
VERY COLD AIR MASS AND WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EST MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...AND BE IN
CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGH WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...AND MAKE ITS
WAY TO THE COAST BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A TREND TOWARD
MILDER CONDITIONS AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA BECOMES
GRADUALLY MORE SW-W...WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND RISING 850 TEMPS
TAKE PLACE.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY A GENEROUS AMOUNT OF VARIATIONS IN THE MODELS
TAKE PLACE. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM EVENTUALLY COME INTO
AGREEMENT OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF CONUS BY
MONDAY OR TUESDAY OR NEXT WEEK...HOW THE SOLUTIONS COME TO BE THAT
WAY HAVE NOTABLE DIFFERENCES. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN
ESTABLISHING THE TROUGH IN THE EAST BY SUNDAY...AND ANY SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEMS EASILY BYPASS OUR REGION EXITING THE U.S. NEAR THE
GA/FL BORDER. THE ECWMF IS NOT A QUICK TO ESTABLISH AN EAST COAST
TROUGH...AND A SUCH...SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS HAVE A BETTER
OPPORTUNITY TO PROGRESS NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR REGION ON THE EAST
SIDE OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

OUR FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BE A CONSENSUS OF THESE
TWO...WITH IT RESEMBLING A WATERED DOWN VERSION OF THE ECWMF IN
TERMS OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
ALSO STAYING ON MORE OF THE MILD SIDE THAN COLD IN REGARDS TO
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM EST MONDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH
ROUGHLY 04Z/11PM. AFTER THIS TIME...MVFR CIGS WILL START
PROGRESSES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN CONJUCTION WITH A WARM
FRONT HEADING TOWARD THE AREA. ALONG WITH THE FRONT WILL COME
LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET. BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY...MANY AREAS WILL HAVE LOWERED
TO LIFR/IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS DUE TO THE PRECIPITATION AND
MIST. THE BULK OF THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO
NORTH A LINE FROM KBLF-KROA-KLYH DURING THE LATE MORNING. BY THE
AFTERNOON...SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MILD ENOUGH FOR A
WIDESPREAD AREA OF PLAIN RAIN. LIFR/IFR CIGS AND IFR/MVFR VSBYS
WILL BE THE NORM DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE NIGHT AND GRADUALLY VEER NORTH
TO SOUTHEAST. ON TUESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST...AND WINDS AT 850 MB WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 45 TO
50 KTS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT TERMINALS AT HIGHER ELEVATION.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
PERIOD.

EXTENDED FORECAST...

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT ALL OF THE REGION
WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY
AND WINTER PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

FRIDAY SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR WEATHER.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 300 PM EST MONDAY

LIKELY TO SEE SOME SUBSTANTIAL RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS IN
RESPONSE TO UPCOMING RAIN EVENT AND SNOWMELT IN THE
MOUNTAINS...QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT HOW SUBSTANTIAL. SIGNIFICANT SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE NOW CONFINED TO PARTS OF THE UPPER JAMES AND
GREENBRIER RIVER BASINS WHERE THE LATEST AVAILABLE ESTIMATES FROM
THE NATIONAL OPERATIONAL REMOTE SENSING CENTER SHOW ROUGHLY 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT WITH ISOLATED 4 INCHES IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE GREENBRIER. IN THE OTHER MAJOR RIVER
BASINS...NEW...ROANOKE/DAN AND TENNESSEE... MELTING OVER THE
WEEKEND AND TODAY HAS REDUCED THE SNOW TO LESS THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW
WATER AND IN MOST PLACES ZERO. THE OTHER ELEMENT OF COURSE IS THE
QPF. 12Z MODELS (INCLUDING LATEST EC) HAVE NUDGED THE HEAVIEST
QPF A LITTLE MORE TO THE WEST...REDUCING AMOUNTS IN THE JAMES AND
GREENBRIER SOME. IT STILL APPEARS AS IF 1 TO 2 INCHES COULD FALL
ACROSS THE WESTERN BASINS BY 12Z THURSDAY AND COMBINED WITH
SNOWMELT THIS COULD PRODUCE AT LEAST MINOR RIVER FLOODING ALONG
THE GREENBRIER AND POSSIBLY THE UPPER JAMES. GUIDANCE RECEIVED
FROM OHRFC THIS MORNING SUGGESTED MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT ALDERSON WV
ON THE GREENBRIER LIKELY BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH THE COMBINED
SNOWMELT AND QPF. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTIES WILL
HOLD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     VAZ018>020-022>024-034-035-045>047.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ007-009-
     010-012-015-016.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     VAZ011-013-014-017-032-033-043.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ001-002-
     018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     WVZ507-508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ042.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     WVZ043-044.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/RAB
NEAR TERM...KK/PM
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...DS/KK
HYDROLOGY...PC



000
FXUS61 KRNK 030308
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1008 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THEN FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1000 PM EST MONDAY...

1033 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER OHIO. THIS HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST OVERNIGHT PROVIDING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.
A STATIONARY FRONT WAS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH...EXTENDING FROM
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA SOUTHWEST TO JACKSON MS. THIS STATIONARY
FROM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING NORTH OVERNIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT RESULTING IN THE RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE AREA BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. QUESTION TO BE ANSWERED IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR PRECIPITATION. THE CLOSEST THING ON RADAR AT
THE MOMENT IS OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BETWEEN ASHVILLE NC
AND ATLANTA GA.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CERTAINLY BE IN A POSITION TO PROVIDE ENOUGH
COLD AIR FOR A WINTRY FORM OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY MORNING. THE
QUESTION IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH DEPTH TO THE MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE PRECIPITATION. BOTH THE HRRR AND RNKWRF SUGGEST ONLY TRACE
AMOUNTS TO OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND NOON TUESDAY WITH THE LARGER
SCALE MODELS PRODUCING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. TRACE ICE IS
CERTAINLY ENOUGH TO BE A NUSCIANCE...BUT THIS IS NOT GOING TO BE
A WIDESPREAD EVENT.

THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH PRECIP PRODUCTION FOR TUESDAY IS THE LACK OF
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN THE M8-M12 DEG C DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE DRY WITHIN THIS LAYER...ALL OF THE
SATURATION TAKING PLACE IN A LOWER LAYER BETWEEN +3 DEG C AND -3
DEG C. UNLESS THERE IS SOME SEEDER FEEDER PROCESS THAT DEVELOPS
INOF THE WARM FRONT...THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS THE PYTYPE WILL
BE EITHER DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE PENDING SURFACE TEMEPRATURE
AT THE TIME. THE CRITICAL WINDOW FOR THE FREEZING PRECIPITATION
WILL BE DURING THE MORNING...SO STILL SEE THE NEED FOR WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIALLY LIGHT ICING THAT
MAY OCCUR...KEEPING IN MIND THAT EVEN A VERY LIGHT COATING OF ICE
ON AN UNTREATED SURFACE CAN POSE A TRAVEL/WALKING HAZARD.

LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S IN THE
COLDEST VALLEYS TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE PIEDMONT. WARM AIR WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY CHANGING PRECIPITATION OVER TO
ALL LIQUID TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST WILL BE THE SLOWEST TO TRANSITION. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER
50S IN THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST MONDAY...

COMPLICATED SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH MULTIPLE CONCERNS. TO BEGIN
TUESDAY NIGHT...ANY REMNANTS OF EARLIER WEDGE WILL BE LONG GONE TO
THE NORTHEAST WITH THE AREA SOLIDLY IN THE WARM SECTOR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING AND CONTINUING TO RISE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON THE HEELS OF A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
LLJ. CONSEQUENTLY...ANY ASSOCIATED WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION
WILL ALSO HAVE LIFTED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. NOW...THE
ATTENTION SHIFTS TO THE ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF...590+ DM AT
THAT...WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR
WILL PLUNGE INITIALLY SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. AS
THE ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONT SLOWS ITS PUSH INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST STATES THANKS TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE
AND THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. THIS HOLDS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
WEST OF OUR CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MUCH OF THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS. FINALLY...WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...THE FRONT WILL BEGIN A BETTER SOUTHEASTWARD
PUSH AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY KICKS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WOULD
EXPECT HEAVIER RAIN TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA BY
00Z WED...THEN BEGIN TO SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.

MEANWHILE...PART OF THE UPPER TROUGH LAGS BEHIND AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES IN RESPONSE. THIS
WILL FURTHER DELAY THE PUSH OF THE PRECIPITATION INTO/THROUGH THE
CWA...BUT PERHAPS NOT THE SHALLOW COLD ARCTIC AIR ONCE IT MANGES
TO CROSS THE APPALACHIANS. QUITE A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS PRESENTED
BY THE MODELS AND WPC AS TO THE WINTER WEATHER THREAT THURSDAY
GIVEN THAT THIS IS FAR FROM A NORMAL SYNOPTIC SITUATION FOR A SNOW
EVENT IN THIS REGION. THE BIG QUESTION IS NOT WHETHER OR NOT THERE
WILL BE PRECIPITATION...BUT HOW QUICKLY WILL THE COLD AIR SPREAD
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...BEFORE THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT...AND HOW QUICKLY WILL THE COLD AIR BECOME
DEEP ENOUGH TO CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION TO SNOW. AM INCLINED AT
THIS POINT TO THROW OUT RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN SCENARIOS...NOT ONLY
BECAUSE IT IS NOT CLIMATOLOGICALLY OR SYNOPTICALLY FAVORABLE IN
THIS SITUATION...BUT THINKING IS THAT COLD AIR WILL BECOME DEEP
ENOUGH QUICKLY ENOUGH TO CHANGE RAIN OVER TO SNOW...OTHER THAN A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CHANGEOVER.
FURTHERMORE...GROUND TEMPS WILL NOT SUPPORT FZRA AT THE CHANGEOVER
TIME AS THE SOUNDING COLUMN COOLS ISOTHERMALLY. FINALLY...THIS IS
YET AGAIN A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR MASS...SO ONCE IT ENTERS THE
REGION...COOLING WILL BE QUICK...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-81. FOR SNOW
AMOUNTS...A PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE...FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH WPC
WWD...IS 4-5 INCHES NORTH...2-4 INCHES CENTRAL/WESTERN AREAS...1-2
INCHES VA PIEDMONT...LITTLE TO NONE NC PIEDMONT.

SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THE FLOOD
THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH COMBINED RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT. DID
ADVERTISE A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN WEDNESDAY EVENING FROM WEST TO
EAST...BUT HAVE REDUCED THE TIME PERIOD OF SUCH COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGES.

TEMPERATURE WISE...A LOT OF NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO RISE TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING AND REMAINING MILD/ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL
THE ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES IN THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PIEDMONT
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL
THURSDAY MORNING. LIKEWISE...A NON-DIURNAL COOLING TREND EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY AS ARCTIC AIR SPREADS INTO THE REGION.
THE GFS IN PARTICULAR SHOW SFC TEMPS BELOW ZERO IN OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES BY FRIDAY MORNING. GIVEN THAT IT IS EARLY MARCH AND THE
850MB TEMPS ARE ONLY AROUND -16C...AS COMPARED TO -26C A COUPLE OF
WEEKS AGO...I FIND THIS SOMEWHAT EXTREME. NONETHELESS...IT IS A
VERY COLD AIR MASS AND WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EST MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...AND BE IN
CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGH WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...AND MAKE ITS
WAY TO THE COAST BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A TREND TOWARD
MILDER CONDITIONS AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA BECOMES
GRADUALLY MORE SW-W...WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND RISING 850 TEMPS
TAKE PLACE.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY A GENEROUS AMOUNT OF VARIATIONS IN THE MODELS
TAKE PLACE. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM EVENTUALLY COME INTO
AGREEMENT OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF CONUS BY
MONDAY OR TUESDAY OR NEXT WEEK...HOW THE SOLUTIONS COME TO BE THAT
WAY HAVE NOTABLE DIFFERENCES. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN
ESTABLISHING THE TROUGH IN THE EAST BY SUNDAY...AND ANY SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEMS EASILY BYPASS OUR REGION EXITING THE U.S. NEAR THE
GA/FL BORDER. THE ECWMF IS NOT A QUICK TO ESTABLISH AN EAST COAST
TROUGH...AND A SUCH...SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS HAVE A BETTER
OPPORTUNITY TO PROGRESS NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR REGION ON THE EAST
SIDE OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

OUR FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BE A CONSENSUS OF THESE
TWO...WITH IT RESEMBLING A WATERED DOWN VERSION OF THE ECWMF IN
TERMS OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
ALSO STAYING ON MORE OF THE MILD SIDE THAN COLD IN REGARDS TO
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM EST MONDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH
ROUGHLY 04Z/11PM. AFTER THIS TIME...MVFR CIGS WILL START
PROGRESSES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN CONJUCTION WITH A WARM
FRONT HEADING TOWARD THE AREA. ALONG WITH THE FRONT WILL COME
LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET. BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY...MANY AREAS WILL HAVE LOWERED
TO LIFR/IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS DUE TO THE PRECIPITATION AND
MIST. THE BULK OF THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO
NORTH A LINE FROM KBLF-KROA-KLYH DURING THE LATE MORNING. BY THE
AFTERNOON...SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MILD ENOUGH FOR A
WIDESPREAD AREA OF PLAIN RAIN. LIFR/IFR CIGS AND IFR/MVFR VSBYS
WILL BE THE NORM DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE NIGHT AND GRADUALLY VEER NORTH
TO SOUTHEAST. ON TUESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST...AND WINDS AT 850 MB WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 45 TO
50 KTS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT TERMINALS AT HIGHER ELEVATION.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
PERIOD.

EXTENDED FORECAST...

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT ALL OF THE REGION
WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY
AND WINTER PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

FRIDAY SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR WEATHER.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 300 PM EST MONDAY

LIKELY TO SEE SOME SUBSTANTIAL RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS IN
RESPONSE TO UPCOMING RAIN EVENT AND SNOWMELT IN THE
MOUNTAINS...QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT HOW SUBSTANTIAL. SIGNIFICANT SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE NOW CONFINED TO PARTS OF THE UPPER JAMES AND
GREENBRIER RIVER BASINS WHERE THE LATEST AVAILABLE ESTIMATES FROM
THE NATIONAL OPERATIONAL REMOTE SENSING CENTER SHOW ROUGHLY 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT WITH ISOLATED 4 INCHES IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE GREENBRIER. IN THE OTHER MAJOR RIVER
BASINS...NEW...ROANOKE/DAN AND TENNESSEE... MELTING OVER THE
WEEKEND AND TODAY HAS REDUCED THE SNOW TO LESS THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW
WATER AND IN MOST PLACES ZERO. THE OTHER ELEMENT OF COURSE IS THE
QPF. 12Z MODELS (INCLUDING LATEST EC) HAVE NUDGED THE HEAVIEST
QPF A LITTLE MORE TO THE WEST...REDUCING AMOUNTS IN THE JAMES AND
GREENBRIER SOME. IT STILL APPEARS AS IF 1 TO 2 INCHES COULD FALL
ACROSS THE WESTERN BASINS BY 12Z THURSDAY AND COMBINED WITH
SNOWMELT THIS COULD PRODUCE AT LEAST MINOR RIVER FLOODING ALONG
THE GREENBRIER AND POSSIBLY THE UPPER JAMES. GUIDANCE RECEIVED
FROM OHRFC THIS MORNING SUGGESTED MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT ALDERSON WV
ON THE GREENBRIER LIKELY BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH THE COMBINED
SNOWMELT AND QPF. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTIES WILL
HOLD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     VAZ018>020-022>024-034-035-045>047.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ007-009-
     010-012-015-016.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     VAZ011-013-014-017-032-033-043.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ001-002-
     018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     WVZ507-508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ042.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     WVZ043-044.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/RAB
NEAR TERM...KK/PM
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...DS/KK
HYDROLOGY...PC




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030305
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1005 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS REVEALS ~1033 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE ERN GREAT LAKES...RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLC REGION. FLOW
ALOFT IS FROM THE WNW...WELL OUT AHEAD OF BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE WRN
CONUS. SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR ACRS N/NE SECTIONS OF THE CWA...WHILE
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS STREAMING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA. SEEING SOME LOWER CLOUDS/BKN CIGS IN NC AS WELL. FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...AS UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MID MS VALLEY ADVANCES
EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE INCREASING CLOUDS
INTO THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE ADJUSTED MIN TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES ACRS
THE SOUTH DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER...WHILE GENLY KEEPING MINS UNTOUCHED
FARTHER N/NE WHERE SKIES STAY MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH MOST OF THE
NIGHT. EXPECT MINS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S OVER NE NC/FAR
SOUTHERN VA...TO THE LOWER 20S FROM THE NRN NECK TO THE MD ERN
SHORE. LATEST 00Z NAM12 SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY SHOWS SOME LIGHT
RETURNS ENTERING SW ZONES BY 12Z...BUT THIS WOULD JUST BE VIRGA
OVER THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE SO NO CHC FOR PRECIP THROUGH 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CENTER OF SFC HI PRES SLOLY EXITS TO THE E ON TUE...BUT LO LVL CAD
RMNS OVR THE FA. CLDNS WILL CONT TO INCRS TUE MRNG LIMITING TEMP
RISE. SOME LGT PCPN MAY BREAKOUT...ESP FAR WNW AREAS...DURING THE
MIDDAY HRS...THEN BETTER COVERAGE OF PCPN ACRS FA XPCD BY MID/LT
AFTN. MDL SOUNDINGS CONT TO HINT AT PTNTL FOR BRIEF PD OF FZRA OVR
FAR NNW AREAS AS TEMPS STRUGGLE TO REACH 32F THROUGH EARLY AFTN.
CONFIDENCE RMNS LO ATTM...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WINTER WX
ADVISORY. OTRW...P-TYPE TO BE RA OVR THE RGN TUE AFTN/EVE. HI
TEMPS TO BE REACHED LT IN THE DAY...RANGING FM THE M/U30S NW-CNTRL
LOCATIONS TO L40S SE.

WARM FRONT TO LIFT NE THROUGH THE FA TUE NGT. BEST MOISTURE AND
UVM ACRS CNTRL/NRN PORTIONS OF FA...THUS THE HIGHEST POPS...W/
WITH CHC POPS LIMITED TO SRN VA/NE NC. BULK OF THE RA LIFTS TO NRN
PORTION BY LT AT NGT. LO TEMPS LIKELY ARND 00Z/04 WITH RISING TEMPS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPS BY 12Z/04 WED RISE INTO THE U40S- M50S.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRONG SSW FLOW.
THERE RMN TIMING ISSUES W/ THE APPROACHING CDFNT FM THE NNW...AS
12Z/02 NAM ABOUT 12HRS SLOWER THAN THE 12Z/02 GFS. AGAIN...THE
12Z/02 ECMWF SEEMS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS
(40-60%) BY AFTN ACRS NRN TIER OF FA...W/ SLGT CHC TO CHC (20-40%)
TO THE S. FOR NOW...LEAVING OUT ANY MENTION OF T ACRS SRN VA/NE
NC...SINCE IT APRS MOST OF MOISTURE CONFINED TO W/ AND BEHIND THE
FNT. HI TEMPS FM THE U50S/L60S N TO L70S IN FAR SE VA/NE NC.

JUST ONE YEAR AGO...MARCH 2ND-3RD...WENT FM 60S TO L70S (THE 2ND)
TO A FEW INCHES OF SN (ON THE 3RD). THIS MAY OCCUR AGN THIS WK
(WED-THU).

FCST CHALLENGES CONT WED NGT THROUGH THU AS CDFNT SETTLES SSE
THROUGH THE FA...AND ANOTHER AREA OF ARCTIC SFC HI PRES BUILDS TWD
THE MS/OH VLYS. WILL LEAN TWD THE FASTER ARRIVAL OF COLDER SFC
AIR FM THE NNW (GFS/ECMWF) BY LT WED NGT AND CONTG ON THU. THE
MDLS EACH HINT AT WK SFC LO PRES TRACKING THROUGH NC AS S/W ALOFT
(IN FAST SWLY FLO) IS SHEARED AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE RGN. ALL
THIS LEADS TO A TRANSITION (WRT P-TYPE) LT WED/THU. RA...BECOMES
MIXED W/ IP-CHANGING TO SN/IP THEN ENDING AS SN FM NNW TO SE ACRS
THE FA (LASTLY ACRS NE NC BY MID OR LT AFTN THU). TIMING THOSE
TRANSITIONS AT THIS POINT VERY DIFFICULT...THOUGH CURRENTLY EXPECT
A LEAST LGT SN ACCUMS FOR AREAS N OF THE NC/VA BORDER BEFORE THE
DAY ENDS THU (T-2 INCHES S...1-4 INCHES N (HIGHEST PTNTTLY FM
RIC-SBY)). ALONG W/ THE TRANSITION TO WINTRY PCPN...GUSTY NNE WNDS
WILL BE PUSHING COLDER AIR INTO THE RGN. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM ARND
30F N TO THE L40S FAR S. TEMPS THU STEADY OR FALLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED IN WAKE OF THURS COLD FRONT...BUT
MODERATING TEMPS THRU THE WEEKEND WILL BRING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE THURS NIGHT WITH THE NRN PORTION OF THE
FRONT PUSHING WELL OFFSHORE. SRN PORTION PUSHES SWD OVER THE GULF
STATES/NRN GULF...STALLING IN WLY FLOW ALOFT. ENDED CHANCE POPS NEAR
THE COAST AT MIDNIGHT...WITH DRYING/CLEARING CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.
1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FRI...RESULTING
IN ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. H85
TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND -12C (-2 STD DEV)...WITH THICKNESSES
YIELDING TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI
NIGHT WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING MODERATE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.
TEMPS FORECAST IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS FRI NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. THEREAFTER...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE THANKS
TO DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW OVER THE WRN CONUS. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
AGAIN BE CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC FLOW (TROUGHING) OVER THE ERN
CONUS AND RIDGING (RETURN TO A +PNA) OVER THE WRN CONUS. MODELS
STRUGGLING WITH A NUMBER OF CANADIAN IMPULSES SET TO IMPACT THE NE
STATES...BUT ALSO SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE BAJA THIS WEEKEND.
ECMWF RATHER ROBUST WITH THIS ENERGY...TRANSLATING ACROSS NRN MEXICO
AND THE SRN PLAINS SAT NIGHT-SUN...POSSIBLY PHASING WITH NRN STREAM
ENERGY OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS SOLUTION WOULD LIFT THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF NWD LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
RAIN TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS SHEARS THE
ENERGY...KEEPING IT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...KEEPING THE LOCAL
AREA DRY. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD A WPC/ENSEMBLE APPROACH WHICH
KEEPS THE SRN STREAM WAVE FLAT AND THE LOCAL AREA DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND..WITH MODERATING TEMPS. HIGHS SAT FORECAST IN THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-MID 40S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS SUN IN THE
MID 50S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 40S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...SCT HIGH CLOUDS WERE OVER THE TAF SITES WITH WINDS UNDER
10 KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES OVERNIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY
MORNING. A WARM FRONT ADVANCES INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BUILD OVER THE TAF SITES BY TUESDAY
MORNING. CLOUD BASES LOWER WITH PCPN DEVELOPING BY LATE TUESDAY.
HAVE PCPN DEVELOP AT RIC AT 19Z AND ORF/PHF BY 22Z...MATCHING CLOSE
TO LAVMOS. HELD ECG OFF UNTIL BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD. SOME IFR VSBYS
WILL BE PSBL TOWARD EVENING AND THIS IS INCLUDED IN THE RIC TAF.

OUTLOOK...RAIN INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA WITH IFR CONDS DEVELOPING
TUESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY. RAIN DEVELOPS BEHIND THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY EVENING TURNING TO MIXED PCPN AND LATER SNOW ON
THURSDAY. AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPACTED BY THIS PCPN. HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK/SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTH OF THE WATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE BECOME NLY...BUT WEAK LOW-LEVEL CAA HAS
RESULTED IN SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT IN THE BAY/RIVER/SOUND AND
AOB 20 KT COASTAL WATERS. THIS AS WINDS A FEW THOUSAND FT ALOFT
RANGE FROM 30-35KT. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. HAVE
DROPPED SCA HEADLINES ALL WATER EXPECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH
OF THE VA/NC BORDER AS BETTER FETCH WILL RESULT IN 4-5 FT SEAS
TONIGHT. HEADLINES RUN THRU LATE TONIGHT. ~1030+MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WATER TONIGHT...SLIDING OFFSHORE TUES. FLOW BECOMES
SELY BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH AOB 15 KT. WARM FRONT PROGGED TO LIFT
OVER THE WATER LATE TUES NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SWLY
FLOW INCREASES LATE TUES NIGHT...BUT SO DOES WAA OVER VERY COLD
WATER. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT MAYBE ONLY A FEW
GUSTS TO 20 KT LATE TUES NIGHT-EARLY WEDS MORNING IN THE BAY. SEAS
BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT 20 NM OUT LATE TUES THRU WEDS...BEFORE
SUBSIDING WEDS NIGHT AOB 4 FT. FRONT IS SLOW TO CROSS THE WATER
WEDS-WEDS NIGHT. CAA SURGES INTO THE REGION LATE WEDS
NIGHT...CONTINUING THRU THURS NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH A NLY WIND. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT (HIGHEST IN THE SRN WATERS)
THURS...SUBSIDING FRI MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRI INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030305
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1005 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS REVEALS ~1033 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE ERN GREAT LAKES...RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLC REGION. FLOW
ALOFT IS FROM THE WNW...WELL OUT AHEAD OF BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE WRN
CONUS. SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR ACRS N/NE SECTIONS OF THE CWA...WHILE
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS STREAMING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA. SEEING SOME LOWER CLOUDS/BKN CIGS IN NC AS WELL. FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...AS UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MID MS VALLEY ADVANCES
EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE INCREASING CLOUDS
INTO THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE ADJUSTED MIN TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES ACRS
THE SOUTH DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER...WHILE GENLY KEEPING MINS UNTOUCHED
FARTHER N/NE WHERE SKIES STAY MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH MOST OF THE
NIGHT. EXPECT MINS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S OVER NE NC/FAR
SOUTHERN VA...TO THE LOWER 20S FROM THE NRN NECK TO THE MD ERN
SHORE. LATEST 00Z NAM12 SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY SHOWS SOME LIGHT
RETURNS ENTERING SW ZONES BY 12Z...BUT THIS WOULD JUST BE VIRGA
OVER THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE SO NO CHC FOR PRECIP THROUGH 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CENTER OF SFC HI PRES SLOLY EXITS TO THE E ON TUE...BUT LO LVL CAD
RMNS OVR THE FA. CLDNS WILL CONT TO INCRS TUE MRNG LIMITING TEMP
RISE. SOME LGT PCPN MAY BREAKOUT...ESP FAR WNW AREAS...DURING THE
MIDDAY HRS...THEN BETTER COVERAGE OF PCPN ACRS FA XPCD BY MID/LT
AFTN. MDL SOUNDINGS CONT TO HINT AT PTNTL FOR BRIEF PD OF FZRA OVR
FAR NNW AREAS AS TEMPS STRUGGLE TO REACH 32F THROUGH EARLY AFTN.
CONFIDENCE RMNS LO ATTM...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WINTER WX
ADVISORY. OTRW...P-TYPE TO BE RA OVR THE RGN TUE AFTN/EVE. HI
TEMPS TO BE REACHED LT IN THE DAY...RANGING FM THE M/U30S NW-CNTRL
LOCATIONS TO L40S SE.

WARM FRONT TO LIFT NE THROUGH THE FA TUE NGT. BEST MOISTURE AND
UVM ACRS CNTRL/NRN PORTIONS OF FA...THUS THE HIGHEST POPS...W/
WITH CHC POPS LIMITED TO SRN VA/NE NC. BULK OF THE RA LIFTS TO NRN
PORTION BY LT AT NGT. LO TEMPS LIKELY ARND 00Z/04 WITH RISING TEMPS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPS BY 12Z/04 WED RISE INTO THE U40S- M50S.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRONG SSW FLOW.
THERE RMN TIMING ISSUES W/ THE APPROACHING CDFNT FM THE NNW...AS
12Z/02 NAM ABOUT 12HRS SLOWER THAN THE 12Z/02 GFS. AGAIN...THE
12Z/02 ECMWF SEEMS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS
(40-60%) BY AFTN ACRS NRN TIER OF FA...W/ SLGT CHC TO CHC (20-40%)
TO THE S. FOR NOW...LEAVING OUT ANY MENTION OF T ACRS SRN VA/NE
NC...SINCE IT APRS MOST OF MOISTURE CONFINED TO W/ AND BEHIND THE
FNT. HI TEMPS FM THE U50S/L60S N TO L70S IN FAR SE VA/NE NC.

JUST ONE YEAR AGO...MARCH 2ND-3RD...WENT FM 60S TO L70S (THE 2ND)
TO A FEW INCHES OF SN (ON THE 3RD). THIS MAY OCCUR AGN THIS WK
(WED-THU).

FCST CHALLENGES CONT WED NGT THROUGH THU AS CDFNT SETTLES SSE
THROUGH THE FA...AND ANOTHER AREA OF ARCTIC SFC HI PRES BUILDS TWD
THE MS/OH VLYS. WILL LEAN TWD THE FASTER ARRIVAL OF COLDER SFC
AIR FM THE NNW (GFS/ECMWF) BY LT WED NGT AND CONTG ON THU. THE
MDLS EACH HINT AT WK SFC LO PRES TRACKING THROUGH NC AS S/W ALOFT
(IN FAST SWLY FLO) IS SHEARED AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE RGN. ALL
THIS LEADS TO A TRANSITION (WRT P-TYPE) LT WED/THU. RA...BECOMES
MIXED W/ IP-CHANGING TO SN/IP THEN ENDING AS SN FM NNW TO SE ACRS
THE FA (LASTLY ACRS NE NC BY MID OR LT AFTN THU). TIMING THOSE
TRANSITIONS AT THIS POINT VERY DIFFICULT...THOUGH CURRENTLY EXPECT
A LEAST LGT SN ACCUMS FOR AREAS N OF THE NC/VA BORDER BEFORE THE
DAY ENDS THU (T-2 INCHES S...1-4 INCHES N (HIGHEST PTNTTLY FM
RIC-SBY)). ALONG W/ THE TRANSITION TO WINTRY PCPN...GUSTY NNE WNDS
WILL BE PUSHING COLDER AIR INTO THE RGN. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM ARND
30F N TO THE L40S FAR S. TEMPS THU STEADY OR FALLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED IN WAKE OF THURS COLD FRONT...BUT
MODERATING TEMPS THRU THE WEEKEND WILL BRING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE THURS NIGHT WITH THE NRN PORTION OF THE
FRONT PUSHING WELL OFFSHORE. SRN PORTION PUSHES SWD OVER THE GULF
STATES/NRN GULF...STALLING IN WLY FLOW ALOFT. ENDED CHANCE POPS NEAR
THE COAST AT MIDNIGHT...WITH DRYING/CLEARING CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.
1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FRI...RESULTING
IN ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. H85
TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND -12C (-2 STD DEV)...WITH THICKNESSES
YIELDING TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI
NIGHT WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING MODERATE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.
TEMPS FORECAST IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS FRI NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. THEREAFTER...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE THANKS
TO DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW OVER THE WRN CONUS. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
AGAIN BE CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC FLOW (TROUGHING) OVER THE ERN
CONUS AND RIDGING (RETURN TO A +PNA) OVER THE WRN CONUS. MODELS
STRUGGLING WITH A NUMBER OF CANADIAN IMPULSES SET TO IMPACT THE NE
STATES...BUT ALSO SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE BAJA THIS WEEKEND.
ECMWF RATHER ROBUST WITH THIS ENERGY...TRANSLATING ACROSS NRN MEXICO
AND THE SRN PLAINS SAT NIGHT-SUN...POSSIBLY PHASING WITH NRN STREAM
ENERGY OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS SOLUTION WOULD LIFT THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF NWD LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
RAIN TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS SHEARS THE
ENERGY...KEEPING IT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...KEEPING THE LOCAL
AREA DRY. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD A WPC/ENSEMBLE APPROACH WHICH
KEEPS THE SRN STREAM WAVE FLAT AND THE LOCAL AREA DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND..WITH MODERATING TEMPS. HIGHS SAT FORECAST IN THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-MID 40S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS SUN IN THE
MID 50S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 40S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...SCT HIGH CLOUDS WERE OVER THE TAF SITES WITH WINDS UNDER
10 KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES OVERNIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY
MORNING. A WARM FRONT ADVANCES INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BUILD OVER THE TAF SITES BY TUESDAY
MORNING. CLOUD BASES LOWER WITH PCPN DEVELOPING BY LATE TUESDAY.
HAVE PCPN DEVELOP AT RIC AT 19Z AND ORF/PHF BY 22Z...MATCHING CLOSE
TO LAVMOS. HELD ECG OFF UNTIL BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD. SOME IFR VSBYS
WILL BE PSBL TOWARD EVENING AND THIS IS INCLUDED IN THE RIC TAF.

OUTLOOK...RAIN INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA WITH IFR CONDS DEVELOPING
TUESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY. RAIN DEVELOPS BEHIND THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY EVENING TURNING TO MIXED PCPN AND LATER SNOW ON
THURSDAY. AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPACTED BY THIS PCPN. HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK/SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTH OF THE WATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE BECOME NLY...BUT WEAK LOW-LEVEL CAA HAS
RESULTED IN SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT IN THE BAY/RIVER/SOUND AND
AOB 20 KT COASTAL WATERS. THIS AS WINDS A FEW THOUSAND FT ALOFT
RANGE FROM 30-35KT. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. HAVE
DROPPED SCA HEADLINES ALL WATER EXPECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH
OF THE VA/NC BORDER AS BETTER FETCH WILL RESULT IN 4-5 FT SEAS
TONIGHT. HEADLINES RUN THRU LATE TONIGHT. ~1030+MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WATER TONIGHT...SLIDING OFFSHORE TUES. FLOW BECOMES
SELY BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH AOB 15 KT. WARM FRONT PROGGED TO LIFT
OVER THE WATER LATE TUES NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SWLY
FLOW INCREASES LATE TUES NIGHT...BUT SO DOES WAA OVER VERY COLD
WATER. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT MAYBE ONLY A FEW
GUSTS TO 20 KT LATE TUES NIGHT-EARLY WEDS MORNING IN THE BAY. SEAS
BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT 20 NM OUT LATE TUES THRU WEDS...BEFORE
SUBSIDING WEDS NIGHT AOB 4 FT. FRONT IS SLOW TO CROSS THE WATER
WEDS-WEDS NIGHT. CAA SURGES INTO THE REGION LATE WEDS
NIGHT...CONTINUING THRU THURS NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH A NLY WIND. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT (HIGHEST IN THE SRN WATERS)
THURS...SUBSIDING FRI MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRI INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM







000
FXUS61 KLWX 030045
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
745 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY
LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ONIGHT.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF QUICKLY...DROPPING TO THE
LOWER 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT TEENS OVER THE NORMALLY COLDER
AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES. LIGHT PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT THEN SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA MID TO LATE MORNING.

PROFILES INDICATE THERE IS ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR PRECIPITATION TO
START AS A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND SLEET BUT A FAIRLY QUICK TRANSITION
TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED BY MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING
DRIZZLE WILL BECOME THE MAIN P-TYPE BY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW
HUNDREDTHS TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCRETION EXPECTED.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SLIPPERY TRAVEL
TO DEVELOP FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING COMMUTE. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TO COVER THIS THREAT.

WARMER AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER IN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. RAIN
WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN WILL LIKELY HOLD ON LONGER FOR THE FAR NORTH AND WEST
SUBURBS OF BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON DC INTO THE EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

COLD AIR MAY BE LINGERING INTO THE ELY EVNG N OF THE PTMC RIVER
TUE EVNG...OTRW WAA WL MAKE ITS WAY TO THE SFC. SHUD HV WARMING
TEMPS THRUT THE NGT. THEREFORE...WL BE RUNNING W/ A PTYPE OF RA...
W/ JUST A LITTLE LINGERING FZRA TO THE N.

THE MAIN PTYPE ISSUE FOR OVNGT TUE INTO WED WL BE RA. A SOLID
PLUME OF MSTR WL BE CHANNELED EWD FM THE WRN GLFMEX AHD OF AN
APPROACHING CDFNT. AM GOING W/ QPF ARND A HALF INCH...CLOSER TO
AN INCH FOR THE MTNS. MORE ON THIS IN THE HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

CFP WL COME LT IN THE DAY. WE WL BE STARTING FM A BASE IN THE UPR
40S NORTH TO UPR 50S SOUTH /BLENDED NEWER GDNC INTO THE ENSEMBLE
MAXT FCST/ SO EVEN AFTER FROPA...PCPN WL STILL BE RAIN. PROBLEM
IS...SFC TEMPS WL KEEP DROPPING THRU THE AFTN-EVNG WHILE THE PLUME
OF MSTR CONTS TO STREAM EWD ABV IT. THAT WUD SUPPORT PCPN CHGG
OVER TO SNW /OR PERHAPS SLEET/ WED NGT. QSTNS REVOLVE ARND THE
TIMING OF THAT TRANSITION ALONG W/ HOW MUCH MSTR WL BE AVBL AT
THAT TIME. AN UPR JET WL BE SUPPORTIVE OF PCPN GENERATION...AS WE
WL BE IN THE RRQ. AT THIS TIME...IT SEEMS APPARENT THAT THERE WL
BE MEASUREABLE SNOW WED NGT INTO THU MRNG. IT CUD BE MORE THAN
JUST A LTL. HV THIS IN THE HWO ATTM. REFER TO OUR PROBABLISTIC
DATA VIA OUR WEBSITE FOR THE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES.

HV SNOW TAPERING OFF DURING THE DAY ON THU. DOUBT THERE WL BE MUCH
OF A TEMP RISE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTER A FEW BUSY WX DAYS...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS WITH CLEARING SKIES...LEADING
TO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES...
ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS SNOW COVER FROM THE THURSDAY SYSTEM. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR FREEZING FRIDAY DESPITE THE RETURN
OF WAA. AFTER ANOTHER COLD NIGHT FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
REBOUND SATURDAY AND EVEN MORE SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THEY WILL REMAIN
IN THE MID/UPPER 40S...WHICH IS BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

AT THIS POINT LEFT WEEKEND PRECIP FREE. BUT...RECENT MODEL RUNS
APPEAR TO HAVE A SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE DEEP SOUTH AND PERHAPS
BEGINNING TO IMPACT OUR AREA ON SUNDAY. WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY BEFORE INTRODUCING POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE
IN FROM WEST TO EAST BY MID TO LATE MORNING. HAVE INTRODUCED LIGHT
SNOW/SLEET MIXTURE AT MOST TERMINALS AROUND MIDDAY BUT EXPECT
FREEZING RAIN TO BECOME THE MAIN P-TYPE BY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE PRECIPITATION MAY CHANGE TO ALL RAIN CENTRAL AND SOUTH WITH
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE HOLDING ON LONGER NEAR KBWI.

MVFR TO IFR FLGT CONDS SHUD BE WIDESPREAD TUE NGT THRU THU. MAINLY
RA TUE NGT AND WED. SNOW SHUD BE THE PRIMARY PTYPE WED NGT INTO
THU. DEPENDING UPON TIMING...LIFR PSBL.

AT THIS POINT NOT EXPECTING ANY AVIATION CONCERNS FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HV DIMINISHED ON THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS COULD
DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED IN FROZEN
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT BEFORE WINDS SUBSIDE. AFTER THIS NOT
EXPECTING MARINE CONCERNS THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING THE POTENTIAL OF MIDWEEK FLOODING IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. LIQUID PRECIP FCST FROM WPC PUTS MUCH OF
THE FCST AREA IN A MINIMA FOR AMOUNTS...AROUND AN INCH OR LESS IN
MANY AREAS. WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 50S ON
WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME...POSSIBLY A LOT OF...MELTING OF THE
EXISTING SNOWPACK...WHICH COMPUTER MODELS AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
CONTAINS ANYWHERE FROM 3/4 INCH TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENT. THIS COMBINATION MAY LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING AS THE RAIN
FALLS ON WEDNESDAY.

ALTHOUGH RIVER ICE IS NOT ESPECIALLY THICK...IT WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL ROLE IN AFFECTING RUNOFF. ALSO...PLOWED SNOW
IS LIKELY COVERING SOME OF THE DRAINS OUT THERE...WHICH COULD CAUSE
MORE POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING THAN WOULD OTHERWISE USUALLY BE
EXPECTED.

WORTH NOTING...CURRENT FORECAST RAIN TOTALS ARE ON THE LOWER SIDE OF
THE ENSEMBLE SUITES OF THE GEFS AND SREF. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE FORECAST FOR UPDATES AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     DCZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     MDZ501-502.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     MDZ004>006-011-013-014-503>508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     MDZ003.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     MDZ016>018.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     VAZ025>031-503-504-507-508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     VAZ053-054-505-506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     VAZ036>040-050>052-055>057-501-502.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     WVZ050-055-501>506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     WVZ051>053.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...KRW/HTS/JE/MSE



000
FXUS61 KLWX 030045
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
745 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY
LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ONIGHT.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF QUICKLY...DROPPING TO THE
LOWER 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT TEENS OVER THE NORMALLY COLDER
AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES. LIGHT PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT THEN SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA MID TO LATE MORNING.

PROFILES INDICATE THERE IS ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR PRECIPITATION TO
START AS A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND SLEET BUT A FAIRLY QUICK TRANSITION
TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED BY MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING
DRIZZLE WILL BECOME THE MAIN P-TYPE BY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW
HUNDREDTHS TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCRETION EXPECTED.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SLIPPERY TRAVEL
TO DEVELOP FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING COMMUTE. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TO COVER THIS THREAT.

WARMER AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER IN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. RAIN
WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN WILL LIKELY HOLD ON LONGER FOR THE FAR NORTH AND WEST
SUBURBS OF BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON DC INTO THE EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

COLD AIR MAY BE LINGERING INTO THE ELY EVNG N OF THE PTMC RIVER
TUE EVNG...OTRW WAA WL MAKE ITS WAY TO THE SFC. SHUD HV WARMING
TEMPS THRUT THE NGT. THEREFORE...WL BE RUNNING W/ A PTYPE OF RA...
W/ JUST A LITTLE LINGERING FZRA TO THE N.

THE MAIN PTYPE ISSUE FOR OVNGT TUE INTO WED WL BE RA. A SOLID
PLUME OF MSTR WL BE CHANNELED EWD FM THE WRN GLFMEX AHD OF AN
APPROACHING CDFNT. AM GOING W/ QPF ARND A HALF INCH...CLOSER TO
AN INCH FOR THE MTNS. MORE ON THIS IN THE HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

CFP WL COME LT IN THE DAY. WE WL BE STARTING FM A BASE IN THE UPR
40S NORTH TO UPR 50S SOUTH /BLENDED NEWER GDNC INTO THE ENSEMBLE
MAXT FCST/ SO EVEN AFTER FROPA...PCPN WL STILL BE RAIN. PROBLEM
IS...SFC TEMPS WL KEEP DROPPING THRU THE AFTN-EVNG WHILE THE PLUME
OF MSTR CONTS TO STREAM EWD ABV IT. THAT WUD SUPPORT PCPN CHGG
OVER TO SNW /OR PERHAPS SLEET/ WED NGT. QSTNS REVOLVE ARND THE
TIMING OF THAT TRANSITION ALONG W/ HOW MUCH MSTR WL BE AVBL AT
THAT TIME. AN UPR JET WL BE SUPPORTIVE OF PCPN GENERATION...AS WE
WL BE IN THE RRQ. AT THIS TIME...IT SEEMS APPARENT THAT THERE WL
BE MEASUREABLE SNOW WED NGT INTO THU MRNG. IT CUD BE MORE THAN
JUST A LTL. HV THIS IN THE HWO ATTM. REFER TO OUR PROBABLISTIC
DATA VIA OUR WEBSITE FOR THE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES.

HV SNOW TAPERING OFF DURING THE DAY ON THU. DOUBT THERE WL BE MUCH
OF A TEMP RISE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTER A FEW BUSY WX DAYS...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS WITH CLEARING SKIES...LEADING
TO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES...
ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS SNOW COVER FROM THE THURSDAY SYSTEM. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR FREEZING FRIDAY DESPITE THE RETURN
OF WAA. AFTER ANOTHER COLD NIGHT FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
REBOUND SATURDAY AND EVEN MORE SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THEY WILL REMAIN
IN THE MID/UPPER 40S...WHICH IS BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

AT THIS POINT LEFT WEEKEND PRECIP FREE. BUT...RECENT MODEL RUNS
APPEAR TO HAVE A SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE DEEP SOUTH AND PERHAPS
BEGINNING TO IMPACT OUR AREA ON SUNDAY. WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY BEFORE INTRODUCING POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE
IN FROM WEST TO EAST BY MID TO LATE MORNING. HAVE INTRODUCED LIGHT
SNOW/SLEET MIXTURE AT MOST TERMINALS AROUND MIDDAY BUT EXPECT
FREEZING RAIN TO BECOME THE MAIN P-TYPE BY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE PRECIPITATION MAY CHANGE TO ALL RAIN CENTRAL AND SOUTH WITH
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE HOLDING ON LONGER NEAR KBWI.

MVFR TO IFR FLGT CONDS SHUD BE WIDESPREAD TUE NGT THRU THU. MAINLY
RA TUE NGT AND WED. SNOW SHUD BE THE PRIMARY PTYPE WED NGT INTO
THU. DEPENDING UPON TIMING...LIFR PSBL.

AT THIS POINT NOT EXPECTING ANY AVIATION CONCERNS FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HV DIMINISHED ON THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS COULD
DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED IN FROZEN
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT BEFORE WINDS SUBSIDE. AFTER THIS NOT
EXPECTING MARINE CONCERNS THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING THE POTENTIAL OF MIDWEEK FLOODING IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. LIQUID PRECIP FCST FROM WPC PUTS MUCH OF
THE FCST AREA IN A MINIMA FOR AMOUNTS...AROUND AN INCH OR LESS IN
MANY AREAS. WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 50S ON
WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME...POSSIBLY A LOT OF...MELTING OF THE
EXISTING SNOWPACK...WHICH COMPUTER MODELS AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
CONTAINS ANYWHERE FROM 3/4 INCH TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENT. THIS COMBINATION MAY LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING AS THE RAIN
FALLS ON WEDNESDAY.

ALTHOUGH RIVER ICE IS NOT ESPECIALLY THICK...IT WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL ROLE IN AFFECTING RUNOFF. ALSO...PLOWED SNOW
IS LIKELY COVERING SOME OF THE DRAINS OUT THERE...WHICH COULD CAUSE
MORE POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING THAN WOULD OTHERWISE USUALLY BE
EXPECTED.

WORTH NOTING...CURRENT FORECAST RAIN TOTALS ARE ON THE LOWER SIDE OF
THE ENSEMBLE SUITES OF THE GEFS AND SREF. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE FORECAST FOR UPDATES AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     DCZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     MDZ501-502.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     MDZ004>006-011-013-014-503>508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     MDZ003.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     MDZ016>018.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     VAZ025>031-503-504-507-508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     VAZ053-054-505-506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     VAZ036>040-050>052-055>057-501-502.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     WVZ050-055-501>506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     WVZ051>053.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...KRW/HTS/JE/MSE



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030013
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
713 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
RATHER NICE EARLY MARCH AFTN ACRS THE FA. HAS TURNED OUT P/MSUNNY
ACRS THE FA...W/ TEMPS RETURNING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL (INTO THE
M/U40S NE TO THE M50S SW). SFC HI PRES WILL BE BUILDING OVR THE
MTNS THIS EVE...THEN BECOME CENTERED OVR THE FA BY LT TNGT.
RMNG MNLY SKC THIS EVE...THEN THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF STORMS
TO THE W BEGINS TO SPREAD CLDNS INTO THE RGN. LO TEMPS MNLY RANGING
THROUGH THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CENTER OF SFC HI PRES SLOLY EXITS TO THE E ON TUE...BUT LO LVL CAD
RMNS OVR THE FA. CLDNS WILL CONT TO INCRS TUE MRNG LIMITING TEMP
RISE. SOME LGT PCPN MAY BREAKOUT...ESP FAR WNW AREAS...DURING THE
MIDDAY HRS...THEN BETTER COVERAGE OF PCPN ACRS FA XPCD BY MID/LT
AFTN. MDL SOUNDINGS CONT TO HINT AT PTNTL FOR BRIEF PD OF FZRA OVR
FAR NNW AREAS AS TEMPS STRUGGLE TO REACH 32F THROUGH EARLY AFTN.
CONFIDENCE RMNS LO ATTM...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WINTER WX
ADVISORY. OTRW...P-TYPE TO BE RA OVR THE RGN TUE AFTN/EVE. HI
TEMPS TO BE REACHED LT IN THE DAY...RANGING FM THE M/U30S NW-CNTRL
LOCATIONS TO L40S SE.

WARM FRONT TO LIFT NE THROUGH THE FA TUE NGT. BEST MOISTURE AND
UVM ACRS CNTRL/NRN PORTIONS OF FA...THUS THE HIGHEST POPS...W/
WITH CHC POPS LIMITED TO SRN VA/NE NC. BULK OF THE RA LIFTS TO NRN
PORTION BY LT AT NGT. LO TEMPS LIKELY ARND 00Z/04 WITH RISING TEMPS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPS BY 12Z/04 WED RISE INTO THE U40S- M50S.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRONG SSW FLOW.
THERE RMN TIMING ISSUES W/ THE APPROACHING CDFNT FM THE NNW...AS
12Z/02 NAM ABOUT 12HRS SLOWER THAN THE 12Z/02 GFS. AGAIN...THE
12Z/02 ECMWF SEEMS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS
(40-60%) BY AFTN ACRS NRN TIER OF FA...W/ SLGT CHC TO CHC (20-40%)
TO THE S. FOR NOW...LEAVING OUT ANY MENTION OF T ACRS SRN VA/NE
NC...SINCE IT APRS MOST OF MOISTURE CONFINED TO W/ AND BEHIND THE
FNT. HI TEMPS FM THE U50S/L60S N TO L70S IN FAR SE VA/NE NC.

JUST ONE YEAR AGO...MARCH 2ND-3RD...WENT FM 60S TO L70S (THE 2ND)
TO A FEW INCHES OF SN (ON THE 3RD). THIS MAY OCCUR AGN THIS WK
(WED-THU).

FCST CHALLENGES CONT WED NGT THROUGH THU AS CDFNT SETTLES SSE
THROUGH THE FA...AND ANOTHER AREA OF ARCTIC SFC HI PRES BUILDS TWD
THE MS/OH VLYS. WILL LEAN TWD THE FASTER ARRIVAL OF COLDER SFC
AIR FM THE NNW (GFS/ECMWF) BY LT WED NGT AND CONTG ON THU. THE
MDLS EACH HINT AT WK SFC LO PRES TRACKING THROUGH NC AS S/W ALOFT
(IN FAST SWLY FLO) IS SHEARED AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE RGN. ALL
THIS LEADS TO A TRANSITION (WRT P-TYPE) LT WED/THU. RA...BECOMES
MIXED W/ IP-CHANGING TO SN/IP THEN ENDING AS SN FM NNW TO SE ACRS
THE FA (LASTLY ACRS NE NC BY MID OR LT AFTN THU). TIMING THOSE
TRANSITIONS AT THIS POINT VERY DIFFICULT...THOUGH CURRENTLY EXPECT
A LEAST LGT SN ACCUMS FOR AREAS N OF THE NC/VA BORDER BEFORE THE
DAY ENDS THU (T-2 INCHES S...1-4 INCHES N (HIGHEST PTNTTLY FM
RIC-SBY)). ALONG W/ THE TRANSITION TO WINTRY PCPN...GUSTY NNE WNDS
WILL BE PUSHING COLDER AIR INTO THE RGN. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM ARND
30F N TO THE L40S FAR S. TEMPS THU STEADY OR FALLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED IN WAKE OF THURS COLD FRONT...BUT
MODERATING TEMPS THRU THE WEEKEND WILL BRING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE THURS NIGHT WITH THE NRN PORTION OF THE
FRONT PUSHING WELL OFFSHORE. SRN PORTION PUSHES SWD OVER THE GULF
STATES/NRN GULF...STALLING IN WLY FLOW ALOFT. ENDED CHANCE POPS NEAR
THE COAST AT MIDNIGHT...WITH DRYING/CLEARING CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.
1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FRI...RESULTING
IN ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. H85
TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND -12C (-2 STD DEV)...WITH THICKNESSES
YIELDING TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI
NIGHT WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING MODERATE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.
TEMPS FORECAST IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS FRI NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. THEREAFTER...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE THANKS
TO DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW OVER THE WRN CONUS. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
AGAIN BE CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC FLOW (TROUGHING) OVER THE ERN
CONUS AND RIDGING (RETURN TO A +PNA) OVER THE WRN CONUS. MODELS
STRUGGLING WITH A NUMBER OF CANADIAN IMPULSES SET TO IMPACT THE NE
STATES...BUT ALSO SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE BAJA THIS WEEKEND.
ECMWF RATHER ROBUST WITH THIS ENERGY...TRANSLATING ACROSS NRN MEXICO
AND THE SRN PLAINS SAT NIGHT-SUN...POSSIBLY PHASING WITH NRN STREAM
ENERGY OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS SOLUTION WOULD LIFT THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF NWD LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
RAIN TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS SHEARS THE
ENERGY...KEEPING IT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...KEEPING THE LOCAL
AREA DRY. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD A WPC/ENSEMBLE APPROACH WHICH
KEEPS THE SRN STREAM WAVE FLAT AND THE LOCAL AREA DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND..WITH MODERATING TEMPS. HIGHS SAT FORECAST IN THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-MID 40S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS SUN IN THE
MID 50S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 40S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...SCT HIGH CLOUDS WERE OVER THE TAF SITES WITH WINDS UNDER
10 KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES OVERNIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY
MORNING. A WARM FRONT ADVANCES INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BUILD OVER THE TAF SITES BY TUESDAY
MORNING. CLOUD BASES LOWER WITH PCPN DEVELOPING BY LATE TUESDAY.
HAVE PCPN DEVELOP AT RIC AT 19Z AND ORF/PHF BY 22Z...MATCHING CLOSE
TO LAVMOS. HELD ECG OFF UNTIL BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD. SOME IFR VSBYS
WILL BE PSBL TOWARD EVENING AND THIS IS INCLUDED IN THE RIC TAF.

OUTLOOK...RAIN INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA WITH IFR CONDS DEVELOPING
TUESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY. RAIN DEVELOPS BEHIND THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY EVENING TURNING TO MIXED PCPN AND LATER SNOW ON
THURSDAY. AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPACTED BY THIS PCPN. HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK/SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTH OF THE WATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE BECOME NLY...BUT WEAK LOW-LEVEL CAA HAS
RESULTED IN SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT IN THE BAY/RIVER/SOUND AND
AOB 20 KT COASTAL WATERS. THIS AS WINDS A FEW THOUSAND FT ALOFT
RANGE FROM 30-35KT. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. HAVE
DROPPED SCA HEADLINES ALL WATER EXPECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH
OF THE VA/NC BORDER AS BETTER FETCH WILL RESULT IN 4-5 FT SEAS
TONIGHT. HEADLINES RUN THRU LATE TONIGHT. ~1030+MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WATER TONIGHT...SLIDING OFFSHORE TUES. FLOW BECOMES
SELY BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH AOB 15 KT. WARM FRONT PROGGED TO LIFT
OVER THE WATER LATE TUES NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SWLY
FLOW INCREASES LATE TUES NIGHT...BUT SO DOES WAA OVER VERY COLD
WATER. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT MAYBE ONLY A FEW
GUSTS TO 20 KT LATE TUES NIGHT-EARLY WEDS MORNING IN THE BAY. SEAS
BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT 20 NM OUT LATE TUES THRU WEDS...BEFORE
SUBSIDING WEDS NIGHT AOB 4 FT. FRONT IS SLOW TO CROSS THE WATER
WEDS-WEDS NIGHT. CAA SURGES INTO THE REGION LATE WEDS
NIGHT...CONTINUING THRU THURS NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH A NLY WIND. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT (HIGHEST IN THE SRN WATERS)
THURS...SUBSIDING FRI MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRI INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...ALB/MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030013
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
713 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
RATHER NICE EARLY MARCH AFTN ACRS THE FA. HAS TURNED OUT P/MSUNNY
ACRS THE FA...W/ TEMPS RETURNING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL (INTO THE
M/U40S NE TO THE M50S SW). SFC HI PRES WILL BE BUILDING OVR THE
MTNS THIS EVE...THEN BECOME CENTERED OVR THE FA BY LT TNGT.
RMNG MNLY SKC THIS EVE...THEN THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF STORMS
TO THE W BEGINS TO SPREAD CLDNS INTO THE RGN. LO TEMPS MNLY RANGING
THROUGH THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CENTER OF SFC HI PRES SLOLY EXITS TO THE E ON TUE...BUT LO LVL CAD
RMNS OVR THE FA. CLDNS WILL CONT TO INCRS TUE MRNG LIMITING TEMP
RISE. SOME LGT PCPN MAY BREAKOUT...ESP FAR WNW AREAS...DURING THE
MIDDAY HRS...THEN BETTER COVERAGE OF PCPN ACRS FA XPCD BY MID/LT
AFTN. MDL SOUNDINGS CONT TO HINT AT PTNTL FOR BRIEF PD OF FZRA OVR
FAR NNW AREAS AS TEMPS STRUGGLE TO REACH 32F THROUGH EARLY AFTN.
CONFIDENCE RMNS LO ATTM...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WINTER WX
ADVISORY. OTRW...P-TYPE TO BE RA OVR THE RGN TUE AFTN/EVE. HI
TEMPS TO BE REACHED LT IN THE DAY...RANGING FM THE M/U30S NW-CNTRL
LOCATIONS TO L40S SE.

WARM FRONT TO LIFT NE THROUGH THE FA TUE NGT. BEST MOISTURE AND
UVM ACRS CNTRL/NRN PORTIONS OF FA...THUS THE HIGHEST POPS...W/
WITH CHC POPS LIMITED TO SRN VA/NE NC. BULK OF THE RA LIFTS TO NRN
PORTION BY LT AT NGT. LO TEMPS LIKELY ARND 00Z/04 WITH RISING TEMPS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPS BY 12Z/04 WED RISE INTO THE U40S- M50S.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRONG SSW FLOW.
THERE RMN TIMING ISSUES W/ THE APPROACHING CDFNT FM THE NNW...AS
12Z/02 NAM ABOUT 12HRS SLOWER THAN THE 12Z/02 GFS. AGAIN...THE
12Z/02 ECMWF SEEMS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS
(40-60%) BY AFTN ACRS NRN TIER OF FA...W/ SLGT CHC TO CHC (20-40%)
TO THE S. FOR NOW...LEAVING OUT ANY MENTION OF T ACRS SRN VA/NE
NC...SINCE IT APRS MOST OF MOISTURE CONFINED TO W/ AND BEHIND THE
FNT. HI TEMPS FM THE U50S/L60S N TO L70S IN FAR SE VA/NE NC.

JUST ONE YEAR AGO...MARCH 2ND-3RD...WENT FM 60S TO L70S (THE 2ND)
TO A FEW INCHES OF SN (ON THE 3RD). THIS MAY OCCUR AGN THIS WK
(WED-THU).

FCST CHALLENGES CONT WED NGT THROUGH THU AS CDFNT SETTLES SSE
THROUGH THE FA...AND ANOTHER AREA OF ARCTIC SFC HI PRES BUILDS TWD
THE MS/OH VLYS. WILL LEAN TWD THE FASTER ARRIVAL OF COLDER SFC
AIR FM THE NNW (GFS/ECMWF) BY LT WED NGT AND CONTG ON THU. THE
MDLS EACH HINT AT WK SFC LO PRES TRACKING THROUGH NC AS S/W ALOFT
(IN FAST SWLY FLO) IS SHEARED AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE RGN. ALL
THIS LEADS TO A TRANSITION (WRT P-TYPE) LT WED/THU. RA...BECOMES
MIXED W/ IP-CHANGING TO SN/IP THEN ENDING AS SN FM NNW TO SE ACRS
THE FA (LASTLY ACRS NE NC BY MID OR LT AFTN THU). TIMING THOSE
TRANSITIONS AT THIS POINT VERY DIFFICULT...THOUGH CURRENTLY EXPECT
A LEAST LGT SN ACCUMS FOR AREAS N OF THE NC/VA BORDER BEFORE THE
DAY ENDS THU (T-2 INCHES S...1-4 INCHES N (HIGHEST PTNTTLY FM
RIC-SBY)). ALONG W/ THE TRANSITION TO WINTRY PCPN...GUSTY NNE WNDS
WILL BE PUSHING COLDER AIR INTO THE RGN. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM ARND
30F N TO THE L40S FAR S. TEMPS THU STEADY OR FALLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED IN WAKE OF THURS COLD FRONT...BUT
MODERATING TEMPS THRU THE WEEKEND WILL BRING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE THURS NIGHT WITH THE NRN PORTION OF THE
FRONT PUSHING WELL OFFSHORE. SRN PORTION PUSHES SWD OVER THE GULF
STATES/NRN GULF...STALLING IN WLY FLOW ALOFT. ENDED CHANCE POPS NEAR
THE COAST AT MIDNIGHT...WITH DRYING/CLEARING CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.
1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FRI...RESULTING
IN ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. H85
TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND -12C (-2 STD DEV)...WITH THICKNESSES
YIELDING TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI
NIGHT WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING MODERATE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.
TEMPS FORECAST IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS FRI NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. THEREAFTER...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE THANKS
TO DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW OVER THE WRN CONUS. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
AGAIN BE CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC FLOW (TROUGHING) OVER THE ERN
CONUS AND RIDGING (RETURN TO A +PNA) OVER THE WRN CONUS. MODELS
STRUGGLING WITH A NUMBER OF CANADIAN IMPULSES SET TO IMPACT THE NE
STATES...BUT ALSO SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE BAJA THIS WEEKEND.
ECMWF RATHER ROBUST WITH THIS ENERGY...TRANSLATING ACROSS NRN MEXICO
AND THE SRN PLAINS SAT NIGHT-SUN...POSSIBLY PHASING WITH NRN STREAM
ENERGY OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS SOLUTION WOULD LIFT THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF NWD LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
RAIN TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS SHEARS THE
ENERGY...KEEPING IT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...KEEPING THE LOCAL
AREA DRY. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD A WPC/ENSEMBLE APPROACH WHICH
KEEPS THE SRN STREAM WAVE FLAT AND THE LOCAL AREA DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND..WITH MODERATING TEMPS. HIGHS SAT FORECAST IN THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-MID 40S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS SUN IN THE
MID 50S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 40S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...SCT HIGH CLOUDS WERE OVER THE TAF SITES WITH WINDS UNDER
10 KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES OVERNIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY
MORNING. A WARM FRONT ADVANCES INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BUILD OVER THE TAF SITES BY TUESDAY
MORNING. CLOUD BASES LOWER WITH PCPN DEVELOPING BY LATE TUESDAY.
HAVE PCPN DEVELOP AT RIC AT 19Z AND ORF/PHF BY 22Z...MATCHING CLOSE
TO LAVMOS. HELD ECG OFF UNTIL BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD. SOME IFR VSBYS
WILL BE PSBL TOWARD EVENING AND THIS IS INCLUDED IN THE RIC TAF.

OUTLOOK...RAIN INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA WITH IFR CONDS DEVELOPING
TUESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY. RAIN DEVELOPS BEHIND THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY EVENING TURNING TO MIXED PCPN AND LATER SNOW ON
THURSDAY. AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPACTED BY THIS PCPN. HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK/SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTH OF THE WATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE BECOME NLY...BUT WEAK LOW-LEVEL CAA HAS
RESULTED IN SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT IN THE BAY/RIVER/SOUND AND
AOB 20 KT COASTAL WATERS. THIS AS WINDS A FEW THOUSAND FT ALOFT
RANGE FROM 30-35KT. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. HAVE
DROPPED SCA HEADLINES ALL WATER EXPECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH
OF THE VA/NC BORDER AS BETTER FETCH WILL RESULT IN 4-5 FT SEAS
TONIGHT. HEADLINES RUN THRU LATE TONIGHT. ~1030+MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WATER TONIGHT...SLIDING OFFSHORE TUES. FLOW BECOMES
SELY BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH AOB 15 KT. WARM FRONT PROGGED TO LIFT
OVER THE WATER LATE TUES NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SWLY
FLOW INCREASES LATE TUES NIGHT...BUT SO DOES WAA OVER VERY COLD
WATER. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT MAYBE ONLY A FEW
GUSTS TO 20 KT LATE TUES NIGHT-EARLY WEDS MORNING IN THE BAY. SEAS
BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT 20 NM OUT LATE TUES THRU WEDS...BEFORE
SUBSIDING WEDS NIGHT AOB 4 FT. FRONT IS SLOW TO CROSS THE WATER
WEDS-WEDS NIGHT. CAA SURGES INTO THE REGION LATE WEDS
NIGHT...CONTINUING THRU THURS NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH A NLY WIND. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT (HIGHEST IN THE SRN WATERS)
THURS...SUBSIDING FRI MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRI INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...ALB/MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030013
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
713 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
RATHER NICE EARLY MARCH AFTN ACRS THE FA. HAS TURNED OUT P/MSUNNY
ACRS THE FA...W/ TEMPS RETURNING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL (INTO THE
M/U40S NE TO THE M50S SW). SFC HI PRES WILL BE BUILDING OVR THE
MTNS THIS EVE...THEN BECOME CENTERED OVR THE FA BY LT TNGT.
RMNG MNLY SKC THIS EVE...THEN THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF STORMS
TO THE W BEGINS TO SPREAD CLDNS INTO THE RGN. LO TEMPS MNLY RANGING
THROUGH THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CENTER OF SFC HI PRES SLOLY EXITS TO THE E ON TUE...BUT LO LVL CAD
RMNS OVR THE FA. CLDNS WILL CONT TO INCRS TUE MRNG LIMITING TEMP
RISE. SOME LGT PCPN MAY BREAKOUT...ESP FAR WNW AREAS...DURING THE
MIDDAY HRS...THEN BETTER COVERAGE OF PCPN ACRS FA XPCD BY MID/LT
AFTN. MDL SOUNDINGS CONT TO HINT AT PTNTL FOR BRIEF PD OF FZRA OVR
FAR NNW AREAS AS TEMPS STRUGGLE TO REACH 32F THROUGH EARLY AFTN.
CONFIDENCE RMNS LO ATTM...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WINTER WX
ADVISORY. OTRW...P-TYPE TO BE RA OVR THE RGN TUE AFTN/EVE. HI
TEMPS TO BE REACHED LT IN THE DAY...RANGING FM THE M/U30S NW-CNTRL
LOCATIONS TO L40S SE.

WARM FRONT TO LIFT NE THROUGH THE FA TUE NGT. BEST MOISTURE AND
UVM ACRS CNTRL/NRN PORTIONS OF FA...THUS THE HIGHEST POPS...W/
WITH CHC POPS LIMITED TO SRN VA/NE NC. BULK OF THE RA LIFTS TO NRN
PORTION BY LT AT NGT. LO TEMPS LIKELY ARND 00Z/04 WITH RISING TEMPS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPS BY 12Z/04 WED RISE INTO THE U40S- M50S.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRONG SSW FLOW.
THERE RMN TIMING ISSUES W/ THE APPROACHING CDFNT FM THE NNW...AS
12Z/02 NAM ABOUT 12HRS SLOWER THAN THE 12Z/02 GFS. AGAIN...THE
12Z/02 ECMWF SEEMS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS
(40-60%) BY AFTN ACRS NRN TIER OF FA...W/ SLGT CHC TO CHC (20-40%)
TO THE S. FOR NOW...LEAVING OUT ANY MENTION OF T ACRS SRN VA/NE
NC...SINCE IT APRS MOST OF MOISTURE CONFINED TO W/ AND BEHIND THE
FNT. HI TEMPS FM THE U50S/L60S N TO L70S IN FAR SE VA/NE NC.

JUST ONE YEAR AGO...MARCH 2ND-3RD...WENT FM 60S TO L70S (THE 2ND)
TO A FEW INCHES OF SN (ON THE 3RD). THIS MAY OCCUR AGN THIS WK
(WED-THU).

FCST CHALLENGES CONT WED NGT THROUGH THU AS CDFNT SETTLES SSE
THROUGH THE FA...AND ANOTHER AREA OF ARCTIC SFC HI PRES BUILDS TWD
THE MS/OH VLYS. WILL LEAN TWD THE FASTER ARRIVAL OF COLDER SFC
AIR FM THE NNW (GFS/ECMWF) BY LT WED NGT AND CONTG ON THU. THE
MDLS EACH HINT AT WK SFC LO PRES TRACKING THROUGH NC AS S/W ALOFT
(IN FAST SWLY FLO) IS SHEARED AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE RGN. ALL
THE COAST AT MIDNIGHT...WITH DRYING/CLEARING CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.
1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FRI...RESULTING
IN ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. H85
TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND -12C (-2 STD DEV)...WITH THICKNESSES
YIELDING TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI
NIGHT WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING MODERATE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.
TEMPS FORECAST IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS FRI NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. THEREAFTER...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE THANKS
TO DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW OVER THE WRN CONUS. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
AGAIN BE CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC FLOW (TROUGHING) OVER THE ERN
CONUS AND RIDGING (RETURN TO A +PNA) OVER THE WRN CONUS. MODELS
STRUGGLING WITH A NUMBER OF CANADIAN IMPULSES SET TO IMPACT THE NE
STATES...BUT ALSO SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE BAJA THIS WEEKEND.
ECMWF RATHER ROBUST WITH THIS ENERGY...TRANSLATING ACROSS NRN MEXICO
AND THE SRN PLAINS SAT NIGHT-SUN...POSSIBLY PHASING WITH NRIS LEADS TO A TRANSITION (WRT P-TYPE) LT WED/THU. RA...BECOMES
MIXED W/ IP-CHANGING TO SN/IP THEN ENDING AS SN FM NNW TO SE ACRS
THE FA (LASTLY ACRS NE NC BY MID OR LT AFTN THU). TIMING THOSE
TRANSITIONS AT THIS POINT VERY DIFFICULT...THOUGH CURRENTLY EXPECT
A LEAST LGT SN ACCUMS FOR AREAS N OF THE NC/VA BORDER BEFORE THE
DAY ENDS THU (T-2 INCHES S...1-4 INCHES N (HIGHEST PTNTTLY FM
RIC-SBY)). ALONG W/ THE TRANSITION TO WINTRY PCPN...GUSTY NNE WNDS
WILL BE PUSHING COLDER AIR INTO THE RGN. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM ARND
30F N TO THE L40S FAR S. TEMPS THU STEADY OR FALLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED IN WAKE OF THURS COLD FRONT...BUT
MODERATING TEMPS THRU THE WEEKEND WILL BRING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE THURS NIGHT WITH THE NRN PORTION OF THE
FRONT PUSHING WELL OFFSHORE. SRN PORTION PUSHES SWD OVER THE GULF
STATES/NRN GULF...STALLING IN WLY FLOW ALOFT. ENDED CHANCE POPS NEAR
THN STREAM
ENERGY OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS SOLUTION WOULD LIFT THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF NWD LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
RAIN TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS SHEARS THE
ENERGY...KEEPING IT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...KEEPING THE LOCAL
AREA DRY. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD A WPC/ENSEMBLE APPROACH WHICH
KEEPS THE SRN STREAM WAVE FLAT AND THE LOCAL AREA DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND..WITH MODERATING TEMPS. HIGHS SAT FORECAST IN THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-MID 40S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS SUN IN THE
MID 50S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 40S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...SCT HIGH CLOUDS WERE OVER THE TAF SITES WITH WINDS UNDER
10 KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES OVERNIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY
MORNING. A WARM FRONT ADVANCES INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BUILD OVER THE TAF SITES BY TUESDAY
MORNING. CLOUD BASES LOWER WITH PCPN DEVELOPING BY LATE TUESDAY.
HAVE PCPN DEVELOP AT RIC AT 19Z AND ORF/PHF BY 22Z...MATCHING CLOSE
TO LAVMOS. HELD ECG OFF UNTIL BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD. SOME IFR VSBYS
WILL BE PSBL TOWARD EVENING AND THIS IS INCLUDED IN THE RIC TAF.

OUTLOOK...RAIN INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA WITH IFR CONDS DEVELOPING
TUESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY. RAIN DEVELOPS BEHIND THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY EVENING TURNING TO MIXED PCPN AND LATER SNOW ON
THURSDAY. AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPACTED BY THIS PCPN. HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK/SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTH OF THE WATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE BECOME NLY...BUT WEAK LOW-LEVEL CAA HAS
RESULTED IN SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT IN THE BAY/RIVER/SOUND AND
AOB 20 KT COASTAL WATERS. THIS AS WINDS A FEW THOUSAND FT ALOFT
RANGE FROM 30-35KT. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. HAVE
DROPPED SCA HEADLINES ALL WATER EXPECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH
OF THE VA/NC BORDER AS BETTER FETCH WILL RESULT IN 4-5 FT SEAS
TONIGHT. HEADLINES RUN THRU LATE TONIGHT. ~1030+MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WATER TONIGHT...SLIDING OFFSHORE TUES. FLOW BECOMES
SELY BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH AOB 15 KT. WARM FRONT PROGGED TO LIFT
OVER THE WATER LATE TUES NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SWLY
FLOW INCREASES LATE TUES NIGHT...BUT SO DOES WAA OVER VERY COLD
WATER. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT MAYBE ONLY A FEW
GUSTS TO 20 KT LATE TUES NIGHT-EARLY WEDS MORNING IN THE BAY. SEAS
BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT 20 NM OUT LATE TUES THRU WEDS...BEFORE
SUBSIDING WEDS NIGHT AOB 4 FT. FRONT IS SLOW TO CROSS THE WATER
WEDS-WEDS NIGHT. CAA SURGES INTO THE REGION LATE WEDS
NIGHT...CONTINUING THRU THURS NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH A NLY WIND. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT (HIGHEST IN THE SRN WATERS)
THURS...SUBSIDING FRI MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRI INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...ALB/MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030013
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
713 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
RATHER NICE EARLY MARCH AFTN ACRS THE FA. HAS TURNED OUT P/MSUNNY
ACRS THE FA...W/ TEMPS RETURNING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL (INTO THE
M/U40S NE TO THE M50S SW). SFC HI PRES WILL BE BUILDING OVR THE
MTNS THIS EVE...THEN BECOME CENTERED OVR THE FA BY LT TNGT.
RMNG MNLY SKC THIS EVE...THEN THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF STORMS
TO THE W BEGINS TO SPREAD CLDNS INTO THE RGN. LO TEMPS MNLY RANGING
THROUGH THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CENTER OF SFC HI PRES SLOLY EXITS TO THE E ON TUE...BUT LO LVL CAD
RMNS OVR THE FA. CLDNS WILL CONT TO INCRS TUE MRNG LIMITING TEMP
RISE. SOME LGT PCPN MAY BREAKOUT...ESP FAR WNW AREAS...DURING THE
MIDDAY HRS...THEN BETTER COVERAGE OF PCPN ACRS FA XPCD BY MID/LT
AFTN. MDL SOUNDINGS CONT TO HINT AT PTNTL FOR BRIEF PD OF FZRA OVR
FAR NNW AREAS AS TEMPS STRUGGLE TO REACH 32F THROUGH EARLY AFTN.
CONFIDENCE RMNS LO ATTM...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WINTER WX
ADVISORY. OTRW...P-TYPE TO BE RA OVR THE RGN TUE AFTN/EVE. HI
TEMPS TO BE REACHED LT IN THE DAY...RANGING FM THE M/U30S NW-CNTRL
LOCATIONS TO L40S SE.

WARM FRONT TO LIFT NE THROUGH THE FA TUE NGT. BEST MOISTURE AND
UVM ACRS CNTRL/NRN PORTIONS OF FA...THUS THE HIGHEST POPS...W/
WITH CHC POPS LIMITED TO SRN VA/NE NC. BULK OF THE RA LIFTS TO NRN
PORTION BY LT AT NGT. LO TEMPS LIKELY ARND 00Z/04 WITH RISING TEMPS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPS BY 12Z/04 WED RISE INTO THE U40S- M50S.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRONG SSW FLOW.
THERE RMN TIMING ISSUES W/ THE APPROACHING CDFNT FM THE NNW...AS
12Z/02 NAM ABOUT 12HRS SLOWER THAN THE 12Z/02 GFS. AGAIN...THE
12Z/02 ECMWF SEEMS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS
(40-60%) BY AFTN ACRS NRN TIER OF FA...W/ SLGT CHC TO CHC (20-40%)
TO THE S. FOR NOW...LEAVING OUT ANY MENTION OF T ACRS SRN VA/NE
NC...SINCE IT APRS MOST OF MOISTURE CONFINED TO W/ AND BEHIND THE
FNT. HI TEMPS FM THE U50S/L60S N TO L70S IN FAR SE VA/NE NC.

JUST ONE YEAR AGO...MARCH 2ND-3RD...WENT FM 60S TO L70S (THE 2ND)
TO A FEW INCHES OF SN (ON THE 3RD). THIS MAY OCCUR AGN THIS WK
(WED-THU).

FCST CHALLENGES CONT WED NGT THROUGH THU AS CDFNT SETTLES SSE
THROUGH THE FA...AND ANOTHER AREA OF ARCTIC SFC HI PRES BUILDS TWD
THE MS/OH VLYS. WILL LEAN TWD THE FASTER ARRIVAL OF COLDER SFC
AIR FM THE NNW (GFS/ECMWF) BY LT WED NGT AND CONTG ON THU. THE
MDLS EACH HINT AT WK SFC LO PRES TRACKING THROUGH NC AS S/W ALOFT
(IN FAST SWLY FLO) IS SHEARED AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE RGN. ALL
THIS LEADS TO A TRANSITION (WRT P-TYPE) LT WED/THU. RA...BECOMES
MIXED W/ IP-CHANGING TO SN/IP THEN ENDING AS SN FM NNW TO SE ACRS
THE FA (LASTLY ACRS NE NC BY MID OR LT AFTN THU). TIMING THOSE
TRANSITIONS AT THIS POINT VERY DIFFICULT...THOUGH CURRENTLY EXPECT
A LEAST LGT SN ACCUMS FOR AREAS N OF THE NC/VA BORDER BEFORE THE
DAY ENDS THU (T-2 INCHES S...1-4 INCHES N (HIGHEST PTNTTLY FM
RIC-SBY)). ALONG W/ THE TRANSITION TO WINTRY PCPN...GUSTY NNE WNDS
WILL BE PUSHING COLDER AIR INTO THE RGN. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM ARND
30F N TO THE L40S FAR S. TEMPS THU STEADY OR FALLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED IN WAKE OF THURS COLD FRONT...BUT
MODERATING TEMPS THRU THE WEEKEND WILL BRING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE THURS NIGHT WITH THE NRN PORTION OF THE
FRONT PUSHING WELL OFFSHORE. SRN PORTION PUSHES SWD OVER THE GULF
STATES/NRN GULF...STALLING IN WLY FLOW ALOFT. ENDED CHANCE POPS NEAR
THE COAST AT MIDNIGHT...WITH DRYING/CLEARING CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.
1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FRI...RESULTING
IN ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. H85
TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND -12C (-2 STD DEV)...WITH THICKNESSES
YIELDING TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI
NIGHT WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING MODERATE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.
TEMPS FORECAST IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS FRI NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. THEREAFTER...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE THANKS
TO DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW OVER THE WRN CONUS. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
AGAIN BE CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC FLOW (TROUGHING) OVER THE ERN
CONUS AND RIDGING (RETURN TO A +PNA) OVER THE WRN CONUS. MODELS
STRUGGLING WITH A NUMBER OF CANADIAN IMPULSES SET TO IMPACT THE NE
STATES...BUT ALSO SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE BAJA THIS WEEKEND.
ECMWF RATHER ROBUST WITH THIS ENERGY...TRANSLATING ACROSS NRN MEXICO
AND THE SRN PLAINS SAT NIGHT-SUN...POSSIBLY PHASING WITH NRN STREAM
ENERGY OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS SOLUTION WOULD LIFT THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF NWD LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
RAIN TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS SHEARS THE
ENERGY...KEEPING IT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...KEEPING THE LOCAL
AREA DRY. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD A WPC/ENSEMBLE APPROACH WHICH
KEEPS THE SRN STREAM WAVE FLAT AND THE LOCAL AREA DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND..WITH MODERATING TEMPS. HIGHS SAT FORECAST IN THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-MID 40S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS SUN IN THE
MID 50S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 40S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...SCT HIGH CLOUDS WERE OVER THE TAF SITES WITH WINDS UNDER
10 KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES OVERNIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY
MORNING. A WARM FRONT ADVANCES INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BUILD OVER THE TAF SITES BY TUESDAY
MORNING. CLOUD BASES LOWER WITH PCPN DEVELOPING BY LATE TUESDAY.
HAVE PCPN DEVELOP AT RIC AT 19Z AND ORF/PHF BY 22Z...MATCHING CLOSE
TO LAVMOS. HELD ECG OFF UNTIL BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD. SOME IFR VSBYS
WILL BE PSBL TOWARD EVENING AND THIS IS INCLUDED IN THE RIC TAF.

OUTLOOK...RAIN INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA WITH IFR CONDS DEVELOPING
TUESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY. RAIN DEVELOPS BEHIND THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY EVENING TURNING TO MIXED PCPN AND LATER SNOW ON
THURSDAY. AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPACTED BY THIS PCPN. HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK/SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTH OF THE WATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE BECOME NLY...BUT WEAK LOW-LEVEL CAA HAS
RESULTED IN SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT IN THE BAY/RIVER/SOUND AND
AOB 20 KT COASTAL WATERS. THIS AS WINDS A FEW THOUSAND FT ALOFT
RANGE FROM 30-35KT. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. HAVE
DROPPED SCA HEADLINES ALL WATER EXPECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH
OF THE VA/NC BORDER AS BETTER FETCH WILL RESULT IN 4-5 FT SEAS
TONIGHT. HEADLINES RUN THRU LATE TONIGHT. ~1030+MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WATER TONIGHT...SLIDING OFFSHORE TUES. FLOW BECOMES
SELY BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH AOB 15 KT. WARM FRONT PROGGED TO LIFT
OVER THE WATER LATE TUES NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SWLY
FLOW INCREASES LATE TUES NIGHT...BUT SO DOES WAA OVER VERY COLD
WATER. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT MAYBE ONLY A FEW
GUSTS TO 20 KT LATE TUES NIGHT-EARLY WEDS MORNING IN THE BAY. SEAS
BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT 20 NM OUT LATE TUES THRU WEDS...BEFORE
SUBSIDING WEDS NIGHT AOB 4 FT. FRONT IS SLOW TO CROSS THE WATER
WEDS-WEDS NIGHT. CAA SURGES INTO THE REGION LATE WEDS
NIGHT...CONTINUING THRU THURS NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH A NLY WIND. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT (HIGHEST IN THE SRN WATERS)
THURS...SUBSIDING FRI MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRI INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...ALB/MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030013
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
713 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
RATHER NICE EARLY MARCH AFTN ACRS THE FA. HAS TURNED OUT P/MSUNNY
ACRS THE FA...W/ TEMPS RETURNING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL (INTO THE
M/U40S NE TO THE M50S SW). SFC HI PRES WILL BE BUILDING OVR THE
MTNS THIS EVE...THEN BECOME CENTERED OVR THE FA BY LT TNGT.
RMNG MNLY SKC THIS EVE...THEN THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF STORMS
TO THE W BEGINS TO SPREAD CLDNS INTO THE RGN. LO TEMPS MNLY RANGING
THROUGH THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CENTER OF SFC HI PRES SLOLY EXITS TO THE E ON TUE...BUT LO LVL CAD
RMNS OVR THE FA. CLDNS WILL CONT TO INCRS TUE MRNG LIMITING TEMP
RISE. SOME LGT PCPN MAY BREAKOUT...ESP FAR WNW AREAS...DURING THE
MIDDAY HRS...THEN BETTER COVERAGE OF PCPN ACRS FA XPCD BY MID/LT
AFTN. MDL SOUNDINGS CONT TO HINT AT PTNTL FOR BRIEF PD OF FZRA OVR
FAR NNW AREAS AS TEMPS STRUGGLE TO REACH 32F THROUGH EARLY AFTN.
CONFIDENCE RMNS LO ATTM...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WINTER WX
ADVISORY. OTRW...P-TYPE TO BE RA OVR THE RGN TUE AFTN/EVE. HI
TEMPS TO BE REACHED LT IN THE DAY...RANGING FM THE M/U30S NW-CNTRL
LOCATIONS TO L40S SE.

WARM FRONT TO LIFT NE THROUGH THE FA TUE NGT. BEST MOISTURE AND
UVM ACRS CNTRL/NRN PORTIONS OF FA...THUS THE HIGHEST POPS...W/
WITH CHC POPS LIMITED TO SRN VA/NE NC. BULK OF THE RA LIFTS TO NRN
PORTION BY LT AT NGT. LO TEMPS LIKELY ARND 00Z/04 WITH RISING TEMPS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPS BY 12Z/04 WED RISE INTO THE U40S- M50S.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRONG SSW FLOW.
THERE RMN TIMING ISSUES W/ THE APPROACHING CDFNT FM THE NNW...AS
12Z/02 NAM ABOUT 12HRS SLOWER THAN THE 12Z/02 GFS. AGAIN...THE
12Z/02 ECMWF SEEMS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS
(40-60%) BY AFTN ACRS NRN TIER OF FA...W/ SLGT CHC TO CHC (20-40%)
TO THE S. FOR NOW...LEAVING OUT ANY MENTION OF T ACRS SRN VA/NE
NC...SINCE IT APRS MOST OF MOISTURE CONFINED TO W/ AND BEHIND THE
FNT. HI TEMPS FM THE U50S/L60S N TO L70S IN FAR SE VA/NE NC.

JUST ONE YEAR AGO...MARCH 2ND-3RD...WENT FM 60S TO L70S (THE 2ND)
TO A FEW INCHES OF SN (ON THE 3RD). THIS MAY OCCUR AGN THIS WK
(WED-THU).

FCST CHALLENGES CONT WED NGT THROUGH THU AS CDFNT SETTLES SSE
THROUGH THE FA...AND ANOTHER AREA OF ARCTIC SFC HI PRES BUILDS TWD
THE MS/OH VLYS. WILL LEAN TWD THE FASTER ARRIVAL OF COLDER SFC
AIR FM THE NNW (GFS/ECMWF) BY LT WED NGT AND CONTG ON THU. THE
MDLS EACH HINT AT WK SFC LO PRES TRACKING THROUGH NC AS S/W ALOFT
(IN FAST SWLY FLO) IS SHEARED AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE RGN. ALL
THE COAST AT MIDNIGHT...WITH DRYING/CLEARING CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.
1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FRI...RESULTING
IN ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. H85
TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND -12C (-2 STD DEV)...WITH THICKNESSES
YIELDING TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI
NIGHT WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING MODERATE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.
TEMPS FORECAST IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS FRI NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. THEREAFTER...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE THANKS
TO DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW OVER THE WRN CONUS. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
AGAIN BE CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC FLOW (TROUGHING) OVER THE ERN
CONUS AND RIDGING (RETURN TO A +PNA) OVER THE WRN CONUS. MODELS
STRUGGLING WITH A NUMBER OF CANADIAN IMPULSES SET TO IMPACT THE NE
STATES...BUT ALSO SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE BAJA THIS WEEKEND.
ECMWF RATHER ROBUST WITH THIS ENERGY...TRANSLATING ACROSS NRN MEXICO
AND THE SRN PLAINS SAT NIGHT-SUN...POSSIBLY PHASING WITH NRIS LEADS TO A TRANSITION (WRT P-TYPE) LT WED/THU. RA...BECOMES
MIXED W/ IP-CHANGING TO SN/IP THEN ENDING AS SN FM NNW TO SE ACRS
THE FA (LASTLY ACRS NE NC BY MID OR LT AFTN THU). TIMING THOSE
TRANSITIONS AT THIS POINT VERY DIFFICULT...THOUGH CURRENTLY EXPECT
A LEAST LGT SN ACCUMS FOR AREAS N OF THE NC/VA BORDER BEFORE THE
DAY ENDS THU (T-2 INCHES S...1-4 INCHES N (HIGHEST PTNTTLY FM
RIC-SBY)). ALONG W/ THE TRANSITION TO WINTRY PCPN...GUSTY NNE WNDS
WILL BE PUSHING COLDER AIR INTO THE RGN. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM ARND
30F N TO THE L40S FAR S. TEMPS THU STEADY OR FALLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED IN WAKE OF THURS COLD FRONT...BUT
MODERATING TEMPS THRU THE WEEKEND WILL BRING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE THURS NIGHT WITH THE NRN PORTION OF THE
FRONT PUSHING WELL OFFSHORE. SRN PORTION PUSHES SWD OVER THE GULF
STATES/NRN GULF...STALLING IN WLY FLOW ALOFT. ENDED CHANCE POPS NEAR
THN STREAM
ENERGY OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS SOLUTION WOULD LIFT THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF NWD LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
RAIN TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS SHEARS THE
ENERGY...KEEPING IT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...KEEPING THE LOCAL
AREA DRY. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD A WPC/ENSEMBLE APPROACH WHICH
KEEPS THE SRN STREAM WAVE FLAT AND THE LOCAL AREA DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND..WITH MODERATING TEMPS. HIGHS SAT FORECAST IN THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-MID 40S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS SUN IN THE
MID 50S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 40S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...SCT HIGH CLOUDS WERE OVER THE TAF SITES WITH WINDS UNDER
10 KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES OVERNIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY
MORNING. A WARM FRONT ADVANCES INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BUILD OVER THE TAF SITES BY TUESDAY
MORNING. CLOUD BASES LOWER WITH PCPN DEVELOPING BY LATE TUESDAY.
HAVE PCPN DEVELOP AT RIC AT 19Z AND ORF/PHF BY 22Z...MATCHING CLOSE
TO LAVMOS. HELD ECG OFF UNTIL BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD. SOME IFR VSBYS
WILL BE PSBL TOWARD EVENING AND THIS IS INCLUDED IN THE RIC TAF.

OUTLOOK...RAIN INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA WITH IFR CONDS DEVELOPING
TUESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY. RAIN DEVELOPS BEHIND THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY EVENING TURNING TO MIXED PCPN AND LATER SNOW ON
THURSDAY. AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPACTED BY THIS PCPN. HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK/SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTH OF THE WATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE BECOME NLY...BUT WEAK LOW-LEVEL CAA HAS
RESULTED IN SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT IN THE BAY/RIVER/SOUND AND
AOB 20 KT COASTAL WATERS. THIS AS WINDS A FEW THOUSAND FT ALOFT
RANGE FROM 30-35KT. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. HAVE
DROPPED SCA HEADLINES ALL WATER EXPECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH
OF THE VA/NC BORDER AS BETTER FETCH WILL RESULT IN 4-5 FT SEAS
TONIGHT. HEADLINES RUN THRU LATE TONIGHT. ~1030+MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WATER TONIGHT...SLIDING OFFSHORE TUES. FLOW BECOMES
SELY BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH AOB 15 KT. WARM FRONT PROGGED TO LIFT
OVER THE WATER LATE TUES NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SWLY
FLOW INCREASES LATE TUES NIGHT...BUT SO DOES WAA OVER VERY COLD
WATER. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT MAYBE ONLY A FEW
GUSTS TO 20 KT LATE TUES NIGHT-EARLY WEDS MORNING IN THE BAY. SEAS
BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT 20 NM OUT LATE TUES THRU WEDS...BEFORE
SUBSIDING WEDS NIGHT AOB 4 FT. FRONT IS SLOW TO CROSS THE WATER
WEDS-WEDS NIGHT. CAA SURGES INTO THE REGION LATE WEDS
NIGHT...CONTINUING THRU THURS NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH A NLY WIND. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT (HIGHEST IN THE SRN WATERS)
THURS...SUBSIDING FRI MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRI INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...ALB/MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030013
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
713 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
RATHER NICE EARLY MARCH AFTN ACRS THE FA. HAS TURNED OUT P/MSUNNY
ACRS THE FA...W/ TEMPS RETURNING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL (INTO THE
M/U40S NE TO THE M50S SW). SFC HI PRES WILL BE BUILDING OVR THE
MTNS THIS EVE...THEN BECOME CENTERED OVR THE FA BY LT TNGT.
RMNG MNLY SKC THIS EVE...THEN THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF STORMS
TO THE W BEGINS TO SPREAD CLDNS INTO THE RGN. LO TEMPS MNLY RANGING
THROUGH THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CENTER OF SFC HI PRES SLOLY EXITS TO THE E ON TUE...BUT LO LVL CAD
RMNS OVR THE FA. CLDNS WILL CONT TO INCRS TUE MRNG LIMITING TEMP
RISE. SOME LGT PCPN MAY BREAKOUT...ESP FAR WNW AREAS...DURING THE
MIDDAY HRS...THEN BETTER COVERAGE OF PCPN ACRS FA XPCD BY MID/LT
AFTN. MDL SOUNDINGS CONT TO HINT AT PTNTL FOR BRIEF PD OF FZRA OVR
FAR NNW AREAS AS TEMPS STRUGGLE TO REACH 32F THROUGH EARLY AFTN.
CONFIDENCE RMNS LO ATTM...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WINTER WX
ADVISORY. OTRW...P-TYPE TO BE RA OVR THE RGN TUE AFTN/EVE. HI
TEMPS TO BE REACHED LT IN THE DAY...RANGING FM THE M/U30S NW-CNTRL
LOCATIONS TO L40S SE.

WARM FRONT TO LIFT NE THROUGH THE FA TUE NGT. BEST MOISTURE AND
UVM ACRS CNTRL/NRN PORTIONS OF FA...THUS THE HIGHEST POPS...W/
WITH CHC POPS LIMITED TO SRN VA/NE NC. BULK OF THE RA LIFTS TO NRN
PORTION BY LT AT NGT. LO TEMPS LIKELY ARND 00Z/04 WITH RISING TEMPS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPS BY 12Z/04 WED RISE INTO THE U40S- M50S.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRONG SSW FLOW.
THERE RMN TIMING ISSUES W/ THE APPROACHING CDFNT FM THE NNW...AS
12Z/02 NAM ABOUT 12HRS SLOWER THAN THE 12Z/02 GFS. AGAIN...THE
12Z/02 ECMWF SEEMS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS
(40-60%) BY AFTN ACRS NRN TIER OF FA...W/ SLGT CHC TO CHC (20-40%)
TO THE S. FOR NOW...LEAVING OUT ANY MENTION OF T ACRS SRN VA/NE
NC...SINCE IT APRS MOST OF MOISTURE CONFINED TO W/ AND BEHIND THE
FNT. HI TEMPS FM THE U50S/L60S N TO L70S IN FAR SE VA/NE NC.

JUST ONE YEAR AGO...MARCH 2ND-3RD...WENT FM 60S TO L70S (THE 2ND)
TO A FEW INCHES OF SN (ON THE 3RD). THIS MAY OCCUR AGN THIS WK
(WED-THU).

FCST CHALLENGES CONT WED NGT THROUGH THU AS CDFNT SETTLES SSE
THROUGH THE FA...AND ANOTHER AREA OF ARCTIC SFC HI PRES BUILDS TWD
THE MS/OH VLYS. WILL LEAN TWD THE FASTER ARRIVAL OF COLDER SFC
AIR FM THE NNW (GFS/ECMWF) BY LT WED NGT AND CONTG ON THU. THE
MDLS EACH HINT AT WK SFC LO PRES TRACKING THROUGH NC AS S/W ALOFT
(IN FAST SWLY FLO) IS SHEARED AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE RGN. ALL
THIS LEADS TO A TRANSITION (WRT P-TYPE) LT WED/THU. RA...BECOMES
MIXED W/ IP-CHANGING TO SN/IP THEN ENDING AS SN FM NNW TO SE ACRS
THE FA (LASTLY ACRS NE NC BY MID OR LT AFTN THU). TIMING THOSE
TRANSITIONS AT THIS POINT VERY DIFFICULT...THOUGH CURRENTLY EXPECT
A LEAST LGT SN ACCUMS FOR AREAS N OF THE NC/VA BORDER BEFORE THE
DAY ENDS THU (T-2 INCHES S...1-4 INCHES N (HIGHEST PTNTTLY FM
RIC-SBY)). ALONG W/ THE TRANSITION TO WINTRY PCPN...GUSTY NNE WNDS
WILL BE PUSHING COLDER AIR INTO THE RGN. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM ARND
30F N TO THE L40S FAR S. TEMPS THU STEADY OR FALLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED IN WAKE OF THURS COLD FRONT...BUT
MODERATING TEMPS THRU THE WEEKEND WILL BRING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE THURS NIGHT WITH THE NRN PORTION OF THE
FRONT PUSHING WELL OFFSHORE. SRN PORTION PUSHES SWD OVER THE GULF
STATES/NRN GULF...STALLING IN WLY FLOW ALOFT. ENDED CHANCE POPS NEAR
THE COAST AT MIDNIGHT...WITH DRYING/CLEARING CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.
1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FRI...RESULTING
IN ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. H85
TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND -12C (-2 STD DEV)...WITH THICKNESSES
YIELDING TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI
NIGHT WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING MODERATE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.
TEMPS FORECAST IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS FRI NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. THEREAFTER...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE THANKS
TO DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW OVER THE WRN CONUS. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
AGAIN BE CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC FLOW (TROUGHING) OVER THE ERN
CONUS AND RIDGING (RETURN TO A +PNA) OVER THE WRN CONUS. MODELS
STRUGGLING WITH A NUMBER OF CANADIAN IMPULSES SET TO IMPACT THE NE
STATES...BUT ALSO SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE BAJA THIS WEEKEND.
ECMWF RATHER ROBUST WITH THIS ENERGY...TRANSLATING ACROSS NRN MEXICO
AND THE SRN PLAINS SAT NIGHT-SUN...POSSIBLY PHASING WITH NRN STREAM
ENERGY OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS SOLUTION WOULD LIFT THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF NWD LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
RAIN TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS SHEARS THE
ENERGY...KEEPING IT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...KEEPING THE LOCAL
AREA DRY. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD A WPC/ENSEMBLE APPROACH WHICH
KEEPS THE SRN STREAM WAVE FLAT AND THE LOCAL AREA DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND..WITH MODERATING TEMPS. HIGHS SAT FORECAST IN THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-MID 40S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS SUN IN THE
MID 50S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 40S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...SCT HIGH CLOUDS WERE OVER THE TAF SITES WITH WINDS UNDER
10 KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES OVERNIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY
MORNING. A WARM FRONT ADVANCES INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BUILD OVER THE TAF SITES BY TUESDAY
MORNING. CLOUD BASES LOWER WITH PCPN DEVELOPING BY LATE TUESDAY.
HAVE PCPN DEVELOP AT RIC AT 19Z AND ORF/PHF BY 22Z...MATCHING CLOSE
TO LAVMOS. HELD ECG OFF UNTIL BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD. SOME IFR VSBYS
WILL BE PSBL TOWARD EVENING AND THIS IS INCLUDED IN THE RIC TAF.

OUTLOOK...RAIN INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA WITH IFR CONDS DEVELOPING
TUESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY. RAIN DEVELOPS BEHIND THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY EVENING TURNING TO MIXED PCPN AND LATER SNOW ON
THURSDAY. AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPACTED BY THIS PCPN. HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK/SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTH OF THE WATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE BECOME NLY...BUT WEAK LOW-LEVEL CAA HAS
RESULTED IN SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT IN THE BAY/RIVER/SOUND AND
AOB 20 KT COASTAL WATERS. THIS AS WINDS A FEW THOUSAND FT ALOFT
RANGE FROM 30-35KT. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. HAVE
DROPPED SCA HEADLINES ALL WATER EXPECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH
OF THE VA/NC BORDER AS BETTER FETCH WILL RESULT IN 4-5 FT SEAS
TONIGHT. HEADLINES RUN THRU LATE TONIGHT. ~1030+MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WATER TONIGHT...SLIDING OFFSHORE TUES. FLOW BECOMES
SELY BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH AOB 15 KT. WARM FRONT PROGGED TO LIFT
OVER THE WATER LATE TUES NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SWLY
FLOW INCREASES LATE TUES NIGHT...BUT SO DOES WAA OVER VERY COLD
WATER. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT MAYBE ONLY A FEW
GUSTS TO 20 KT LATE TUES NIGHT-EARLY WEDS MORNING IN THE BAY. SEAS
BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT 20 NM OUT LATE TUES THRU WEDS...BEFORE
SUBSIDING WEDS NIGHT AOB 4 FT. FRONT IS SLOW TO CROSS THE WATER
WEDS-WEDS NIGHT. CAA SURGES INTO THE REGION LATE WEDS
NIGHT...CONTINUING THRU THURS NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH A NLY WIND. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT (HIGHEST IN THE SRN WATERS)
THURS...SUBSIDING FRI MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRI INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...ALB/MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM






000
FXUS61 KRNK 022333
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
633 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THEN FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 414 PM EST MONDAY...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES POSTED FOR LIGHT WINTRY MIXTURE LATE
TONIGHT INTO 1 PM TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE COLD FRONT WILL TRAVEL EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
SLIDE EAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH
CENTER WILL WEDGE SOUTH DOWN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS
TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

WINDS DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND THE TURN TO THE EAST THEN
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS THE WEDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED. THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK NORTH ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE AND EASTERN SLOPES OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PUSHING COLD AIR INTO OUR REGION. USED TOPDOWN APPROACH FOR
PTYPE WITH GFS AS MAIN PLAYER. ACROSS THE NORTH...PROFILES INDICATE
THERE IS ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR PRECIPITATION TO START AS A MIXTURE OF
SNOW AND SLEET BUT A FAIRLY QUICK TRANSITION TO SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN IS EXPECTED BY MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIGHT. IN THE SOUTH...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW
DURING THE ONSET. ICE AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT EVEN IN THE NORTH.
SHAPED ICE VALUES TOWARDS WPC GUIDANCE WITH HIGHEST AMOUNT IN THE
NORTH. LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S IN
THE COLDEST VALLEYS TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE PIEDMONT. WARM AIR
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY CHANGING PRECIPITATION
OVER TO ALL RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST WILL BE THE SLOWEST TO TRANSITION TO RAIN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE NORTHEAST
TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST MONDAY...

COMPLICATED SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH MULTIPLE CONCERNS. TO BEGIN
TUESDAY NIGHT...ANY REMNANTS OF EARLIER WEDGE WILL BE LONG GONE TO
THE NORTHEAST WITH THE AREA SOLIDLY IN THE WARM SECTOR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING AND CONTINUING TO RISE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON THE HEELS OF A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
LLJ. CONSEQUENTLY...ANY ASSOCIATED WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION
WILL ALSO HAVE LIFTED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. NOW...THE
ATTENTION SHIFTS TO THE ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF...590+ DM AT
THAT...WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR
WILL PLUNGE INITIALLY SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. AS
THE ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONT SLOWS ITS PUSH INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST STATES THANKS TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE
AND THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. THIS HOLDS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
WEST OF OUR CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MUCH OF THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS. FINALLY...WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...THE FRONT WILL BEGIN A BETTER SOUTHEASTWARD
PUSH AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY KICKS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WOULD
EXPECT HEAVIER RAIN TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA BY
00Z WED...THEN BEGIN TO SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.

MEANWHILE...PART OF THE UPPER TROUGH LAGS BEHIND AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES IN RESPONSE. THIS
WILL FURTHER DELAY THE PUSH OF THE PRECIPITATION INTO/THROUGH THE
CWA...BUT PERHAPS NOT THE SHALLOW COLD ARCTIC AIR ONCE IT MANGES
TO CROSS THE APPALACHIANS. QUITE A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS PRESENTED
BY THE MODELS AND WPC AS TO THE WINTER WEATHER THREAT THURSDAY
GIVEN THAT THIS IS FAR FROM A NORMAL SYNOPTIC SITUATION FOR A SNOW
EVENT IN THIS REGION. THE BIG QUESTION IS NOT WHETHER OR NOT THERE
WILL BE PRECIPITATION...BUT HOW QUICKLY WILL THE COLD AIR SPREAD
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...BEFORE THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT...AND HOW QUICKLY WILL THE COLD AIR BECOME
DEEP ENOUGH TO CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION TO SNOW. AM INCLINED AT
THIS POINT TO THROW OUT RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN SCENARIOS...NOT ONLY
BECAUSE IT IS NOT CLIMATOLOGICALLY OR SYNOPTICALLY FAVORABLE IN
THIS SITUATION...BUT THINKING IS THAT COLD AIR WILL BECOME DEEP
ENOUGH QUICKLY ENOUGH TO CHANGE RAIN OVER TO SNOW...OTHER THAN A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CHANGEOVER.
FURTHERMORE...GROUND TEMPS WILL NOT SUPPORT FZRA AT THE CHANGEOVER
TIME AS THE SOUNDING COLUMN COOLS ISOTHERMALLY. FINALLY...THIS IS
YET AGAIN A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR MASS...SO ONCE IT ENTERS THE
REGION...COOLING WILL BE QUICK...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-81. FOR SNOW
AMOUNTS...A PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE...FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH WPC
WWD...IS 4-5 INCHES NORTH...2-4 INCHES CENTRAL/WESTERN AREAS...1-2
INCHES VA PIEDMONT...LITTLE TO NONE NC PIEDMONT.

SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THE FLOOD
THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH COMBINED RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT. DID
ADVERTISE A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN WEDNESDAY EVENING FROM WEST TO
EAST...BUT HAVE REDUCED THE TIME PERIOD OF SUCH COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGES.

TEMPERATURE WISE...A LOT OF NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO RISE TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING AND REMAINING MILD/ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL
THE ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES IN THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PIEDMONT
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL
THURSDAY MORNING. LIKEWISE...A NON-DIURNAL COOLING TREND EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY AS ARCTIC AIR SPREADS INTO THE REGION.
THE GFS IN PARTICULAR SHOW SFC TEMPS BELOW ZERO IN OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES BY FRIDAY MORNING. GIVEN THAT IT IS EARLY MARCH AND THE
850MB TEMPS ARE ONLY AROUND -16C...AS COMPARED TO -26C A COUPLE OF
WEEKS AGO...I FIND THIS SOMEWHAT EXTREME. NONETHELESS...IT IS A
VERY COLD AIR MASS AND WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EST MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...AND BE IN
CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGH WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...AND MAKE ITS
WAY TO THE COAST BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A TREND TOWARD
MILDER CONDITIONS AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA BECOMES
GRADUALLY MORE SW-W...WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND RISING 850 TEMPS
TAKE PLACE.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY A GENEROUS AMOUNT OF VARIATIONS IN THE MODELS
TAKE PLACE. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM EVENTUALLY COME INTO
AGREEMENT OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF CONUS BY
MONDAY OR TUESDAY OR NEXT WEEK...HOW THE SOLUTIONS COME TO BE THAT
WAY HAVE NOTABLE DIFFERENCES. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN
ESTABLISHING THE TROUGH IN THE EAST BY SUNDAY...AND ANY SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEMS EASILY BYPASS OUR REGION EXITING THE U.S. NEAR THE
GA/FL BORDER. THE ECWMF IS NOT A QUICK TO ESTABLISH AN EAST COAST
TROUGH...AND A SUCH...SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS HAVE A BETTER
OPPORTUNITY TO PROGRESS NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR REGION ON THE EAST
SIDE OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

OUR FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BE A CONSENSUS OF THESE
TWO...WITH IT RESEMBLING A WATERED DOWN VERSION OF THE ECWMF IN
TERMS OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
ALSO STAYING ON MORE OF THE MILD SIDE THAN COLD IN REGARDS TO
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM EST MONDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH
ROUGHLY 04Z/11PM. AFTER THIS TIME...MVFR CIGS WILL START
PROGRESSES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN CONJUCTION WITH A WARM
FRONT HEADING TOWARD THE AREA. ALONG WITH THE FRONT WILL COME
LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET. BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY...MANY AREAS WILL HAVE LOWERED
TO LIFR/IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS DUE TO THE PRECIPITATION AND
MIST. THE BULK OF THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO
NORTH A LINE FROM KBLF-KROA-KLYH DURING THE LATE MORNING. BY THE
AFTERNOON...SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MILD ENOUGH FOR A
WIDESPREAD AREA OF PLAIN RAIN. LIFR/IFR CIGS AND IFR/MVFR VSBYS
WILL BE THE NORM DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE NIGHT AND GRADUALLY VEER NORTH
TO SOUTHEAST. ON TUESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST...AND WINDS AT 850 MB WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 45 TO
50 KTS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT TERMINALS AT HIGHER ELEVATION.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
PERIOD.

EXTENDED FORECAST...

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT ALL OF THE REGION
WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY
AND WINTER PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

FRIDAY SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR WEATHER.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 300 PM EST MONDAY

LIKELY TO SEE SOME SUBSTANTIAL RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS IN
RESPONSE TO UPCOMING RAIN EVENT AND SNOWMELT IN THE
MOUNTAINS...QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT HOW SUBSTANTIAL. SIGNIFICANT SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE NOW CONFINED TO PARTS OF THE UPPER JAMES AND
GREENBRIER RIVER BASINS WHERE THE LATEST AVAILABLE ESTIMATES FROM
THE NATIONAL OPERATIONAL REMOTE SENSING CENTER SHOW ROUGHLY 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT WITH ISOLATED 4 INCHES IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE GREENBRIER. IN THE OTHER MAJOR RIVER
BASINS...NEW...ROANOKE/DAN AND TENNESSEE... MELTING OVER THE
WEEKEND AND TODAY HAS REDUCED THE SNOW TO LESS THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW
WATER AND IN MOST PLACES ZERO. THE OTHER ELEMENT OF COURSE IS THE
QPF. 12Z MODELS (INCLUDING LATEST EC) HAVE NUDGED THE HEAVIEST
QPF A LITTLE MORE TO THE WEST...REDUCING AMOUNTS IN THE JAMES AND
GREENBRIER SOME. IT STILL APPEARS AS IF 1 TO 2 INCHES COULD FALL
ACROSS THE WESTERN BASINS BY 12Z THURSDAY AND COMBINED WITH
SNOWMELT THIS COULD PRODUCE AT LEAST MINOR RIVER FLOODING ALONG
THE GREENBRIER AND POSSIBLY THE UPPER JAMES. GUIDANCE RECEIVED
FROM OHRFC THIS MORNING SUGGESTED MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT ALDERSON WV
ON THE GREENBRIER LIKELY BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH THE COMBINED
SNOWMELT AND QPF. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTIES WILL
HOLD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     VAZ018>020-022>024-034-035-045>047.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ007-009-010-012-015-016.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     VAZ011-013-014-017-032-033-043.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     WVZ507-508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR WVZ042.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     WVZ043-044.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/RAB
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...DS/KK
HYDROLOGY...PC



000
FXUS61 KRNK 022333
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
633 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THEN FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 414 PM EST MONDAY...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES POSTED FOR LIGHT WINTRY MIXTURE LATE
TONIGHT INTO 1 PM TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE COLD FRONT WILL TRAVEL EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
SLIDE EAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH
CENTER WILL WEDGE SOUTH DOWN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS
TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

WINDS DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND THE TURN TO THE EAST THEN
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS THE WEDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED. THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK NORTH ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE AND EASTERN SLOPES OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PUSHING COLD AIR INTO OUR REGION. USED TOPDOWN APPROACH FOR
PTYPE WITH GFS AS MAIN PLAYER. ACROSS THE NORTH...PROFILES INDICATE
THERE IS ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR PRECIPITATION TO START AS A MIXTURE OF
SNOW AND SLEET BUT A FAIRLY QUICK TRANSITION TO SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN IS EXPECTED BY MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIGHT. IN THE SOUTH...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW
DURING THE ONSET. ICE AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT EVEN IN THE NORTH.
SHAPED ICE VALUES TOWARDS WPC GUIDANCE WITH HIGHEST AMOUNT IN THE
NORTH. LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S IN
THE COLDEST VALLEYS TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE PIEDMONT. WARM AIR
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY CHANGING PRECIPITATION
OVER TO ALL RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST WILL BE THE SLOWEST TO TRANSITION TO RAIN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE NORTHEAST
TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST MONDAY...

COMPLICATED SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH MULTIPLE CONCERNS. TO BEGIN
TUESDAY NIGHT...ANY REMNANTS OF EARLIER WEDGE WILL BE LONG GONE TO
THE NORTHEAST WITH THE AREA SOLIDLY IN THE WARM SECTOR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING AND CONTINUING TO RISE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON THE HEELS OF A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
LLJ. CONSEQUENTLY...ANY ASSOCIATED WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION
WILL ALSO HAVE LIFTED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. NOW...THE
ATTENTION SHIFTS TO THE ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF...590+ DM AT
THAT...WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR
WILL PLUNGE INITIALLY SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. AS
THE ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONT SLOWS ITS PUSH INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST STATES THANKS TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE
AND THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. THIS HOLDS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
WEST OF OUR CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MUCH OF THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS. FINALLY...WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...THE FRONT WILL BEGIN A BETTER SOUTHEASTWARD
PUSH AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY KICKS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WOULD
EXPECT HEAVIER RAIN TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA BY
00Z WED...THEN BEGIN TO SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.

MEANWHILE...PART OF THE UPPER TROUGH LAGS BEHIND AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES IN RESPONSE. THIS
WILL FURTHER DELAY THE PUSH OF THE PRECIPITATION INTO/THROUGH THE
CWA...BUT PERHAPS NOT THE SHALLOW COLD ARCTIC AIR ONCE IT MANGES
TO CROSS THE APPALACHIANS. QUITE A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS PRESENTED
BY THE MODELS AND WPC AS TO THE WINTER WEATHER THREAT THURSDAY
GIVEN THAT THIS IS FAR FROM A NORMAL SYNOPTIC SITUATION FOR A SNOW
EVENT IN THIS REGION. THE BIG QUESTION IS NOT WHETHER OR NOT THERE
WILL BE PRECIPITATION...BUT HOW QUICKLY WILL THE COLD AIR SPREAD
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...BEFORE THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT...AND HOW QUICKLY WILL THE COLD AIR BECOME
DEEP ENOUGH TO CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION TO SNOW. AM INCLINED AT
THIS POINT TO THROW OUT RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN SCENARIOS...NOT ONLY
BECAUSE IT IS NOT CLIMATOLOGICALLY OR SYNOPTICALLY FAVORABLE IN
THIS SITUATION...BUT THINKING IS THAT COLD AIR WILL BECOME DEEP
ENOUGH QUICKLY ENOUGH TO CHANGE RAIN OVER TO SNOW...OTHER THAN A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CHANGEOVER.
FURTHERMORE...GROUND TEMPS WILL NOT SUPPORT FZRA AT THE CHANGEOVER
TIME AS THE SOUNDING COLUMN COOLS ISOTHERMALLY. FINALLY...THIS IS
YET AGAIN A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR MASS...SO ONCE IT ENTERS THE
REGION...COOLING WILL BE QUICK...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-81. FOR SNOW
AMOUNTS...A PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE...FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH WPC
WWD...IS 4-5 INCHES NORTH...2-4 INCHES CENTRAL/WESTERN AREAS...1-2
INCHES VA PIEDMONT...LITTLE TO NONE NC PIEDMONT.

SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THE FLOOD
THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH COMBINED RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT. DID
ADVERTISE A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN WEDNESDAY EVENING FROM WEST TO
EAST...BUT HAVE REDUCED THE TIME PERIOD OF SUCH COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGES.

TEMPERATURE WISE...A LOT OF NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO RISE TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING AND REMAINING MILD/ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL
THE ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES IN THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PIEDMONT
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL
THURSDAY MORNING. LIKEWISE...A NON-DIURNAL COOLING TREND EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY AS ARCTIC AIR SPREADS INTO THE REGION.
THE GFS IN PARTICULAR SHOW SFC TEMPS BELOW ZERO IN OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES BY FRIDAY MORNING. GIVEN THAT IT IS EARLY MARCH AND THE
850MB TEMPS ARE ONLY AROUND -16C...AS COMPARED TO -26C A COUPLE OF
WEEKS AGO...I FIND THIS SOMEWHAT EXTREME. NONETHELESS...IT IS A
VERY COLD AIR MASS AND WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EST MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...AND BE IN
CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGH WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...AND MAKE ITS
WAY TO THE COAST BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A TREND TOWARD
MILDER CONDITIONS AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA BECOMES
GRADUALLY MORE SW-W...WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND RISING 850 TEMPS
TAKE PLACE.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY A GENEROUS AMOUNT OF VARIATIONS IN THE MODELS
TAKE PLACE. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM EVENTUALLY COME INTO
AGREEMENT OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF CONUS BY
MONDAY OR TUESDAY OR NEXT WEEK...HOW THE SOLUTIONS COME TO BE THAT
WAY HAVE NOTABLE DIFFERENCES. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN
ESTABLISHING THE TROUGH IN THE EAST BY SUNDAY...AND ANY SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEMS EASILY BYPASS OUR REGION EXITING THE U.S. NEAR THE
GA/FL BORDER. THE ECWMF IS NOT A QUICK TO ESTABLISH AN EAST COAST
TROUGH...AND A SUCH...SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS HAVE A BETTER
OPPORTUNITY TO PROGRESS NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR REGION ON THE EAST
SIDE OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

OUR FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BE A CONSENSUS OF THESE
TWO...WITH IT RESEMBLING A WATERED DOWN VERSION OF THE ECWMF IN
TERMS OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
ALSO STAYING ON MORE OF THE MILD SIDE THAN COLD IN REGARDS TO
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM EST MONDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH
ROUGHLY 04Z/11PM. AFTER THIS TIME...MVFR CIGS WILL START
PROGRESSES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN CONJUCTION WITH A WARM
FRONT HEADING TOWARD THE AREA. ALONG WITH THE FRONT WILL COME
LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET. BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY...MANY AREAS WILL HAVE LOWERED
TO LIFR/IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS DUE TO THE PRECIPITATION AND
MIST. THE BULK OF THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO
NORTH A LINE FROM KBLF-KROA-KLYH DURING THE LATE MORNING. BY THE
AFTERNOON...SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MILD ENOUGH FOR A
WIDESPREAD AREA OF PLAIN RAIN. LIFR/IFR CIGS AND IFR/MVFR VSBYS
WILL BE THE NORM DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE NIGHT AND GRADUALLY VEER NORTH
TO SOUTHEAST. ON TUESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST...AND WINDS AT 850 MB WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 45 TO
50 KTS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT TERMINALS AT HIGHER ELEVATION.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
PERIOD.

EXTENDED FORECAST...

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT ALL OF THE REGION
WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY
AND WINTER PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

FRIDAY SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR WEATHER.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 300 PM EST MONDAY

LIKELY TO SEE SOME SUBSTANTIAL RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS IN
RESPONSE TO UPCOMING RAIN EVENT AND SNOWMELT IN THE
MOUNTAINS...QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT HOW SUBSTANTIAL. SIGNIFICANT SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE NOW CONFINED TO PARTS OF THE UPPER JAMES AND
GREENBRIER RIVER BASINS WHERE THE LATEST AVAILABLE ESTIMATES FROM
THE NATIONAL OPERATIONAL REMOTE SENSING CENTER SHOW ROUGHLY 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT WITH ISOLATED 4 INCHES IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE GREENBRIER. IN THE OTHER MAJOR RIVER
BASINS...NEW...ROANOKE/DAN AND TENNESSEE... MELTING OVER THE
WEEKEND AND TODAY HAS REDUCED THE SNOW TO LESS THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW
WATER AND IN MOST PLACES ZERO. THE OTHER ELEMENT OF COURSE IS THE
QPF. 12Z MODELS (INCLUDING LATEST EC) HAVE NUDGED THE HEAVIEST
QPF A LITTLE MORE TO THE WEST...REDUCING AMOUNTS IN THE JAMES AND
GREENBRIER SOME. IT STILL APPEARS AS IF 1 TO 2 INCHES COULD FALL
ACROSS THE WESTERN BASINS BY 12Z THURSDAY AND COMBINED WITH
SNOWMELT THIS COULD PRODUCE AT LEAST MINOR RIVER FLOODING ALONG
THE GREENBRIER AND POSSIBLY THE UPPER JAMES. GUIDANCE RECEIVED
FROM OHRFC THIS MORNING SUGGESTED MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT ALDERSON WV
ON THE GREENBRIER LIKELY BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH THE COMBINED
SNOWMELT AND QPF. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTIES WILL
HOLD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     VAZ018>020-022>024-034-035-045>047.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ007-009-010-012-015-016.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     VAZ011-013-014-017-032-033-043.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     WVZ507-508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR WVZ042.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     WVZ043-044.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/RAB
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...DS/KK
HYDROLOGY...PC




000
FXUS61 KRNK 022115
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
415 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THEN FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 414 PM EST MONDAY...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES POSTED FOR LIGHT WINTRY MIXTURE LATE
TONIGHT INTO 1 PM TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE COLD FRONT WILL TRAVEL EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
SLIDE EAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH
CENTER WILL WEDGE SOUTH DOWN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS
TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

WINDS DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND THE TURN TO THE EAST THEN
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS THE WEDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED. THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK NORTH ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE AND EASTERN SLOPES OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PUSHING COLD AIR INTO OUR REGION. USED TOPDOWN APPROACH FOR
PTYPE WITH GFS AS MAIN PLAYER. ACROSS THE NORTH...PROFILES INDICATE
THERE IS ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR PRECIPITATION TO START AS A MIXTURE OF
SNOW AND SLEET BUT A FAIRLY QUICK TRANSITION TO SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN IS EXPECTED BY MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIGHT. IN THE SOUTH...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW
DURING THE ONSET. ICE AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT EVEN IN THE NORTH.
SHAPED ICE VALUES TOWARDS WPC GUIDANCE WITH HIGHEST AMOUNT IN THE
NORTH. LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S IN
THE COLDEST VALLEYS TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE PIEDMONT. WARM AIR
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY CHANGING PRECIPITATION
OVER TO ALL RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST WILL BE THE SLOWEST TO TRANSITION TO RAIN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE NORTHEAST
TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST MONDAY...

COMPLICATED SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH MULTIPLE CONCERNS. TO BEGIN
TUESDAY NIGHT...ANY REMNANTS OF EARLIER WEDGE WILL BE LONG GONE TO
THE NORTHEAST WITH THE AREA SOLIDLY IN THE WARM SECTOR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING AND CONTINUING TO RISE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON THE HEELS OF A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
LLJ. CONSEQUENTLY...ANY ASSOCIATED WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION
WILL ALSO HAVE LIFTED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. NOW...THE
ATTENTION SHIFTS TO THE ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF...590+ DM AT
THAT...WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR
WILL PLUNGE INITIALLY SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. AS
THE ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONT SLOWS ITS PUSH INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST STATES THANKS TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE
AND THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. THIS HOLDS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
WEST OF OUR CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MUCH OF THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS. FINALLY...WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...THE FRONT WILL BEGIN A BETTER SOUTHEASTWARD
PUSH AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY KICKS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WOULD
EXPECT HEAVIER RAIN TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA BY
00Z WED...THEN BEGIN TO SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.

MEANWHILE...PART OF THE UPPER TROUGH LAGS BEHIND AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES IN RESPONSE. THIS
WILL FURTHER DELAY THE PUSH OF THE PRECIPITATION INTO/THROUGH THE
CWA...BUT PERHAPS NOT THE SHALLOW COLD ARCTIC AIR ONCE IT MANGES
TO CROSS THE APPALACHIANS. QUITE A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS PRESENTED
BY THE MODELS AND WPC AS TO THE WINTER WEATHER THREAT THURSDAY
GIVEN THAT THIS IS FAR FROM A NORMAL SYNOPTIC SITUATION FOR A SNOW
EVENT IN THIS REGION. THE BIG QUESTION IS NOT WHETHER OR NOT THERE
WILL BE PRECIPITATION...BUT HOW QUICKLY WILL THE COLD AIR SPREAD
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...BEFORE THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT...AND HOW QUICKLY WILL THE COLD AIR BECOME
DEEP ENOUGH TO CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION TO SNOW. AM INCLINED AT
THIS POINT TO THROW OUT RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN SCENARIOS...NOT ONLY
BECAUSE IT IS NOT CLIMATOLOGICALLY OR SYNOPTICALLY FAVORABLE IN
THIS SITUATION...BUT THINKING IS THAT COLD AIR WILL BECOME DEEP
ENOUGH QUICKLY ENOUGH TO CHANGE RAIN OVER TO SNOW...OTHER THAN A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CHANGEOVER.
FURTHERMORE...GROUND TEMPS WILL NOT SUPPORT FZRA AT THE CHANGEOVER
TIME AS THE SOUNDING COLUMN COOLS ISOTHERMALLY. FINALLY...THIS IS
YET AGAIN A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR MASS...SO ONCE IT ENTERS THE
REGION...COOLING WILL BE QUICK...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-81. FOR SNOW
AMOUNTS...A PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE...FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH WPC
WWD...IS 4-5 INCHES NORTH...2-4 INCHES CENTRAL/WESTERN AREAS...1-2
INCHES VA PIEDMONT...LITTLE TO NONE NC PIEDMONT.

SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THE FLOOD
THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH COMBINED RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT. DID
ADVERTISE A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN WEDNESDAY EVENING FROM WEST TO
EAST...BUT HAVE REDUCED THE TIME PERIOD OF SUCH COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGES.

TEMPERATURE WISE...A LOT OF NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO RISE TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING AND REMAINING MILD/ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL
THE ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES IN THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PIEDMONT
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL
THURSDAY MORNING. LIKEWISE...A NON-DIURNAL COOLING TREND EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY AS ARCTIC AIR SPREADS INTO THE REGION.
THE GFS IN PARTICULAR SHOW SFC TEMPS BELOW ZERO IN OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES BY FRIDAY MORNING. GIVEN THAT IT IS EARLY MARCH AND THE
850MB TEMPS ARE ONLY AROUND -16C...AS COMPARED TO -26C A COUPLE OF
WEEKS AGO...I FIND THIS SOMEWHAT EXTREME. NONETHELESS...IT IS A
VERY COLD AIR MASS AND WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EST MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...AND BE IN
CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGH WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...AND MAKE ITS
WAY TO THE COAST BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A TREND TOWARD
MILDER CONDITIONS AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA BECOMES
GRADUALLY MORE SW-W...WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND RISING 850 TEMPS
TAKE PLACE.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY A GENEROUS AMOUNT OF VARIATIONS IN THE MODELS
TAKE PLACE. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM EVENTUALLY COME INTO
AGREEMENT OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF CONUS BY
MONDAY OR TUESDAY OR NEXT WEEK...HOW THE SOLUTIONS COME TO BE THAT
WAY HAVE NOTABLE DIFFERENCES. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN
ESTABLISHING THE TROUGH IN THE EAST BY SUNDAY...AND ANY SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEMS EASILY BYPASS OUR REGION EXITING THE U.S. NEAR THE
GA/FL BORDER. THE ECWMF IS NOT A QUICK TO ESTABLISH AN EAST COAST
TROUGH...AND A SUCH...SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS HAVE A BETTER
OPPORTUNITY TO PROGRESS NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR REGION ON THE EAST
SIDE OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

OUR FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BE A CONSENSUS OF THESE
TWO...WITH IT RESEMBLING A WATERED DOWN VERSION OF THE ECWMF IN
TERMS OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
ALSO STAYING ON MORE OF THE MILD SIDE THAN COLD IN REGARDS TO
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1237 PM EST MONDAY...

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SCT TO BKN MVFR CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WEDGE DOWN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS
TONIGHT. AS SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHWEST...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN NORTH ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR
AT KBCB AND KDAN AFTER 06Z/1AM. LIGHT RAIN...FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. A WINTRY
MIXTURE TUESDAY MORNING WILL TRANSITION TO MAINLY RAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
PERIOD.


EXTENDED FORECAST...

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT ALL OF THE REGION
WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY
AND WINTER PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

FRIDAY SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR WEATHER.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 300 PM EST MONDAY

LIKELY TO SEE SOME SUBSTANTIAL RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS IN
RESPONSE TO UPCOMING RAIN EVENT AND SNOWMELT IN THE
MOUNTAINS...QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT HOW SUBSTANTIAL. SIGNIFICANT SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE NOW CONFINED TO PARTS OF THE UPPER JAMES AND
GREENBRIER RIVER BASINS WHERE THE LATEST AVAILABLE ESTIMATES FROM
THE NATIONAL OPERATIONAL REMOTE SENSING CENTER SHOW ROUGHLY 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT WITH ISOLATED 4 INCHES IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE GREENBRIER. IN THE OTHER MAJOR RIVER
BASINS...NEW...ROANOKE/DAN AND TENNESSEE... MELTING OVER THE
WEEKEND AND TODAY HAS REDUCED THE SNOW TO LESS THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW
WATER AND IN MOST PLACES ZERO. THE OTHER ELEMENT OF COURSE IS THE
QPF. 12Z MODELS (INCLUDING LATEST EC) HAVE NUDGED THE HEAVIEST
QPF A LITTLE MORE TO THE WEST...REDUCING AMOUNTS IN THE JAMES AND
GREENBRIER SOME. IT STILL APPEARS AS IF 1 TO 2 INCHES COULD FALL
ACROSS THE WESTERN BASINS BY 12Z THURSDAY AND COMBINED WITH
SNOWMELT THIS COULD PRODUCE AT LEAST MINOR RIVER FLOODING ALONG
THE GREENBRIER AND POSSIBLY THE UPPER JAMES. GUIDANCE RECEIVED
FROM OHRFC THIS MORNING SUGGESTED MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT ALDERSON WV
ON THE GREENBRIER LIKELY BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH THE COMBINED
SNOWMELT AND QPF. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTIES WILL
HOLD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     VAZ018>020-022>024-034-035-045>047.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ007-009-010-012-015-016.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     VAZ011-013-014-017-032-033-043.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     WVZ507-508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR WVZ042.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     WVZ043-044.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/RAB
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...KK
HYDROLOGY...PC



000
FXUS61 KRNK 022115
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
415 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THEN FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 414 PM EST MONDAY...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES POSTED FOR LIGHT WINTRY MIXTURE LATE
TONIGHT INTO 1 PM TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE COLD FRONT WILL TRAVEL EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
SLIDE EAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH
CENTER WILL WEDGE SOUTH DOWN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS
TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

WINDS DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND THE TURN TO THE EAST THEN
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS THE WEDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED. THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK NORTH ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE AND EASTERN SLOPES OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PUSHING COLD AIR INTO OUR REGION. USED TOPDOWN APPROACH FOR
PTYPE WITH GFS AS MAIN PLAYER. ACROSS THE NORTH...PROFILES INDICATE
THERE IS ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR PRECIPITATION TO START AS A MIXTURE OF
SNOW AND SLEET BUT A FAIRLY QUICK TRANSITION TO SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN IS EXPECTED BY MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIGHT. IN THE SOUTH...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW
DURING THE ONSET. ICE AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT EVEN IN THE NORTH.
SHAPED ICE VALUES TOWARDS WPC GUIDANCE WITH HIGHEST AMOUNT IN THE
NORTH. LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S IN
THE COLDEST VALLEYS TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE PIEDMONT. WARM AIR
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY CHANGING PRECIPITATION
OVER TO ALL RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST WILL BE THE SLOWEST TO TRANSITION TO RAIN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE NORTHEAST
TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST MONDAY...

COMPLICATED SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH MULTIPLE CONCERNS. TO BEGIN
TUESDAY NIGHT...ANY REMNANTS OF EARLIER WEDGE WILL BE LONG GONE TO
THE NORTHEAST WITH THE AREA SOLIDLY IN THE WARM SECTOR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING AND CONTINUING TO RISE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON THE HEELS OF A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
LLJ. CONSEQUENTLY...ANY ASSOCIATED WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION
WILL ALSO HAVE LIFTED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. NOW...THE
ATTENTION SHIFTS TO THE ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF...590+ DM AT
THAT...WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR
WILL PLUNGE INITIALLY SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. AS
THE ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONT SLOWS ITS PUSH INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST STATES THANKS TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE
AND THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. THIS HOLDS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
WEST OF OUR CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MUCH OF THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS. FINALLY...WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...THE FRONT WILL BEGIN A BETTER SOUTHEASTWARD
PUSH AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY KICKS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WOULD
EXPECT HEAVIER RAIN TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA BY
00Z WED...THEN BEGIN TO SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.

MEANWHILE...PART OF THE UPPER TROUGH LAGS BEHIND AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES IN RESPONSE. THIS
WILL FURTHER DELAY THE PUSH OF THE PRECIPITATION INTO/THROUGH THE
CWA...BUT PERHAPS NOT THE SHALLOW COLD ARCTIC AIR ONCE IT MANGES
TO CROSS THE APPALACHIANS. QUITE A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS PRESENTED
BY THE MODELS AND WPC AS TO THE WINTER WEATHER THREAT THURSDAY
GIVEN THAT THIS IS FAR FROM A NORMAL SYNOPTIC SITUATION FOR A SNOW
EVENT IN THIS REGION. THE BIG QUESTION IS NOT WHETHER OR NOT THERE
WILL BE PRECIPITATION...BUT HOW QUICKLY WILL THE COLD AIR SPREAD
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...BEFORE THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT...AND HOW QUICKLY WILL THE COLD AIR BECOME
DEEP ENOUGH TO CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION TO SNOW. AM INCLINED AT
THIS POINT TO THROW OUT RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN SCENARIOS...NOT ONLY
BECAUSE IT IS NOT CLIMATOLOGICALLY OR SYNOPTICALLY FAVORABLE IN
THIS SITUATION...BUT THINKING IS THAT COLD AIR WILL BECOME DEEP
ENOUGH QUICKLY ENOUGH TO CHANGE RAIN OVER TO SNOW...OTHER THAN A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CHANGEOVER.
FURTHERMORE...GROUND TEMPS WILL NOT SUPPORT FZRA AT THE CHANGEOVER
TIME AS THE SOUNDING COLUMN COOLS ISOTHERMALLY. FINALLY...THIS IS
YET AGAIN A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR MASS...SO ONCE IT ENTERS THE
REGION...COOLING WILL BE QUICK...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-81. FOR SNOW
AMOUNTS...A PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE...FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH WPC
WWD...IS 4-5 INCHES NORTH...2-4 INCHES CENTRAL/WESTERN AREAS...1-2
INCHES VA PIEDMONT...LITTLE TO NONE NC PIEDMONT.

SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THE FLOOD
THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH COMBINED RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT. DID
ADVERTISE A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN WEDNESDAY EVENING FROM WEST TO
EAST...BUT HAVE REDUCED THE TIME PERIOD OF SUCH COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGES.

TEMPERATURE WISE...A LOT OF NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO RISE TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING AND REMAINING MILD/ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL
THE ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES IN THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PIEDMONT
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL
THURSDAY MORNING. LIKEWISE...A NON-DIURNAL COOLING TREND EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY AS ARCTIC AIR SPREADS INTO THE REGION.
THE GFS IN PARTICULAR SHOW SFC TEMPS BELOW ZERO IN OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES BY FRIDAY MORNING. GIVEN THAT IT IS EARLY MARCH AND THE
850MB TEMPS ARE ONLY AROUND -16C...AS COMPARED TO -26C A COUPLE OF
WEEKS AGO...I FIND THIS SOMEWHAT EXTREME. NONETHELESS...IT IS A
VERY COLD AIR MASS AND WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EST MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...AND BE IN
CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGH WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...AND MAKE ITS
WAY TO THE COAST BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A TREND TOWARD
MILDER CONDITIONS AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA BECOMES
GRADUALLY MORE SW-W...WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND RISING 850 TEMPS
TAKE PLACE.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY A GENEROUS AMOUNT OF VARIATIONS IN THE MODELS
TAKE PLACE. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM EVENTUALLY COME INTO
AGREEMENT OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF CONUS BY
MONDAY OR TUESDAY OR NEXT WEEK...HOW THE SOLUTIONS COME TO BE THAT
WAY HAVE NOTABLE DIFFERENCES. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN
ESTABLISHING THE TROUGH IN THE EAST BY SUNDAY...AND ANY SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEMS EASILY BYPASS OUR REGION EXITING THE U.S. NEAR THE
GA/FL BORDER. THE ECWMF IS NOT A QUICK TO ESTABLISH AN EAST COAST
TROUGH...AND A SUCH...SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS HAVE A BETTER
OPPORTUNITY TO PROGRESS NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR REGION ON THE EAST
SIDE OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

OUR FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BE A CONSENSUS OF THESE
TWO...WITH IT RESEMBLING A WATERED DOWN VERSION OF THE ECWMF IN
TERMS OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
ALSO STAYING ON MORE OF THE MILD SIDE THAN COLD IN REGARDS TO
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1237 PM EST MONDAY...

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SCT TO BKN MVFR CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WEDGE DOWN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS
TONIGHT. AS SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHWEST...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN NORTH ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR
AT KBCB AND KDAN AFTER 06Z/1AM. LIGHT RAIN...FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. A WINTRY
MIXTURE TUESDAY MORNING WILL TRANSITION TO MAINLY RAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
PERIOD.


EXTENDED FORECAST...

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT ALL OF THE REGION
WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY
AND WINTER PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

FRIDAY SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR WEATHER.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 300 PM EST MONDAY

LIKELY TO SEE SOME SUBSTANTIAL RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS IN
RESPONSE TO UPCOMING RAIN EVENT AND SNOWMELT IN THE
MOUNTAINS...QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT HOW SUBSTANTIAL. SIGNIFICANT SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE NOW CONFINED TO PARTS OF THE UPPER JAMES AND
GREENBRIER RIVER BASINS WHERE THE LATEST AVAILABLE ESTIMATES FROM
THE NATIONAL OPERATIONAL REMOTE SENSING CENTER SHOW ROUGHLY 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT WITH ISOLATED 4 INCHES IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE GREENBRIER. IN THE OTHER MAJOR RIVER
BASINS...NEW...ROANOKE/DAN AND TENNESSEE... MELTING OVER THE
WEEKEND AND TODAY HAS REDUCED THE SNOW TO LESS THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW
WATER AND IN MOST PLACES ZERO. THE OTHER ELEMENT OF COURSE IS THE
QPF. 12Z MODELS (INCLUDING LATEST EC) HAVE NUDGED THE HEAVIEST
QPF A LITTLE MORE TO THE WEST...REDUCING AMOUNTS IN THE JAMES AND
GREENBRIER SOME. IT STILL APPEARS AS IF 1 TO 2 INCHES COULD FALL
ACROSS THE WESTERN BASINS BY 12Z THURSDAY AND COMBINED WITH
SNOWMELT THIS COULD PRODUCE AT LEAST MINOR RIVER FLOODING ALONG
THE GREENBRIER AND POSSIBLY THE UPPER JAMES. GUIDANCE RECEIVED
FROM OHRFC THIS MORNING SUGGESTED MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT ALDERSON WV
ON THE GREENBRIER LIKELY BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH THE COMBINED
SNOWMELT AND QPF. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTIES WILL
HOLD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     VAZ018>020-022>024-034-035-045>047.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ007-009-010-012-015-016.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     VAZ011-013-014-017-032-033-043.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     WVZ507-508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR WVZ042.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     WVZ043-044.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/RAB
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...KK
HYDROLOGY...PC




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 022106
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
406 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
RATHER NICE EARLY MARCH AFTN ACRS THE FA. HAS TURNED OUT P/MSUNNY
ACRS THE FA...W/ TEMPS RETURNING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL (INTO THE
M/U40S NE TO THE M50S SW). SFC HI PRES WILL BE BUILDING OVR THE
MTNS THIS EVE...THEN BECOME CENTERED OVR THE FA BY LT TNGT.
RMNG MNLY SKC THIS EVE...THEN THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF STORMS
TO THE W BEGINS TO SPREAD CLDNS INTO THE RGN. LO TEMPS MNLY RANGING
THROUGH THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CENTER OF SFC HI PRES SLOLY EXITS TO THE E ON TUE...BUT LO LVL CAD
RMNS OVR THE FA. CLDNS WILL CONT TO INCRS TUE MRNG LIMITING TEMP
RISE. SOME LGT PCPN MAY BREAKOUT...ESP FAR WNW AREAS...DURING THE
MIDDAY HRS...THEN BETTER COVERAGE OF PCPN ACRS FA XPCD BY MID/LT
AFTN. MDL SOUNDINGS CONT TO HINT AT PTNTL FOR BRIEF PD OF FZRA OVR
FAR NNW AREAS AS TEMPS STRUGGLE TO REACH 32F THROUGH EARLY AFTN.
CONFIDENCE RMNS LO ATTM...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WINTER WX
ADVISORY. OTRW...P-TYPE TO BE RA OVR THE RGN TUE AFTN/EVE. HI
TEMPS TO BE REACHED LT IN THE DAY...RANGING FM THE M/U30S NW-CNTRL
LOCATIONS TO L40S SE.

WARM FRONT TO LIFT NE THROUGH THE FA TUE NGT. BEST MOISTURE AND
UVM ACRS CNTRL/NRN PORTIONS OF FA...THUS THE HIGHEST POPS...W/
WITH CHC POPS LIMITED TO SRN VA/NE NC. BULK OF THE RA LIFTS TO NRN
PORTION BY LT AT NGT. LO TEMPS LIKELY ARND 00Z/04 WITH RISING TEMPS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPS BY 12Z/04 WED RISE INTO THE U40S- M50S.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRONG SSW FLOW.
THERE RMN TIMING ISSUES W/ THE APPROACHING CDFNT FM THE NNW...AS
12Z/02 NAM ABOUT 12HRS SLOWER THAN THE 12Z/02 GFS. AGAIN...THE
12Z/02 ECMWF SEEMS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS
(40-60%) BY AFTN ACRS NRN TIER OF FA...W/ SLGT CHC TO CHC (20-40%)
TO THE S. FOR NOW...LEAVING OUT ANY MENTION OF T ACRS SRN VA/NE
NC...SINCE IT APRS MOST OF MOISTURE CONFINED TO W/ AND BEHIND THE
FNT. HI TEMPS FM THE U50S/L60S N TO L70S IN FAR SE VA/NE NC.

JUST ONE YEAR AGO...MARCH 2ND-3RD...WENT FM 60S TO L70S (THE 2ND)
TO A FEW INCHES OF SN (ON THE 3RD). THIS MAY OCCUR AGN THIS WK
(WED-THU).

FCST CHALLENGES CONT WED NGT THROUGH THU AS CDFNT SETTLES SSE
THROUGH THE FA...AND ANOTHER AREA OF ARCTIC SFC HI PRES BUILDS TWD
THE MS/OH VLYS. WILL LEAN TWD THE FASTER ARRIVAL OF COLDER SFC
AIR FM THE NNW (GFS/ECMWF) BY LT WED NGT AND CONTG ON THU. THE
MDLS EACH HINT AT WK SFC LO PRES TRACKING THROUGH NC AS S/W ALOFT
(IN FAST SWLY FLO) IS SHEARED AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE RGN. ALL
THIS LEADS TO A TRANSITION (WRT P-TYPE) LT WED/THU. RA...BECOMES
MIXED W/ IP-CHANGING TO SN/IP THEN ENDING AS SN FM NNW TO SE ACRS
THE FA (LASTLY ACRS NE NC BY MID OR LT AFTN THU). TIMING THOSE
TRANSITIONS AT THIS POINT VERY DIFFICULT...THOUGH CURRENTLY EXPECT
A LEAST LGT SN ACCUMS FOR AREAS N OF THE NC/VA BORDER BEFORE THE
DAY ENDS THU (T-2 INCHES S...1-4 INCHES N (HIGHEST PTNTTLY FM
RIC-SBY)). ALONG W/ THE TRANSITION TO WINTRY PCPN...GUSTY NNE WNDS
WILL BE PUSHING COLDER AIR INTO THE RGN. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM ARND
30F N TO THE L40S FAR S. TEMPS THU STEADY OR FALLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED IN WAKE OF THURS COLD FRONT...BUT
MODERATING TEMPS THRU THE WEEKEND WILL BRING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE THURS NIGHT WITH THE NRN PORTION OF THE
FRONT PUSHING WELL OFFSHORE. SRN PORTION PUSHES SWD OVER THE GULF
STATES/NRN GULF...STALLING IN WLY FLOW ALOFT. ENDED CHANCE POPS NEAR
THE COAST AT MIDNIGHT...WITH DRYING/CLEARING CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.
1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FRI...RESULTING
IN ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. H85
TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND -12C (-2 STD DEV)...WITH THICKNESSES
YIELDING TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI
NIGHT WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING MODERATE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.
TEMPS FORECAST IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS FRI NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. THEREAFTER...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE THANKS
TO DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW OVER THE WRN CONUS. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
AGAIN BE CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC FLOW (TROUGHING) OVER THE ERN
CONUS AND RIDGING (RETURN TO A +PNA) OVER THE WRN CONUS. MODELS
STRUGGLING WITH A NUMBER OF CANADIAN IMPULSES SET TO IMPACT THE NE
STATES...BUT ALSO SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE BAJA THIS WEEKEND.
ECMWF RATHER ROBUST WITH THIS ENERGY...TRANSLATING ACROSS NRN MEXICO
AND THE SRN PLAINS SAT NIGHT-SUN...POSSIBLY PHASING WITH NRN STREAM
ENERGY OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS SOLUTION WOULD LIFT THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF NWD LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
RAIN TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS SHEARS THE
ENERGY...KEEPING IT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...KEEPING THE LOCAL
AREA DRY. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD A WPC/ENSEMBLE APPROACH WHICH
KEEPS THE SRN STREAM WAVE FLAT AND THE LOCAL AREA DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND..WITH MODERATING TEMPS. HIGHS SAT FORECAST IN THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-MID 40S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS SUN IN THE
MID 50S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 40S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION IS MAINLY CLEAR OF LOWERED CIGS EARLY THIS
AFTN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KECG....WHICH IS QUICKLY SEEING
IMPROVEMENTS THIS HOUR (OR 02/1800Z). HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THE HIGH SLIDES OVERHEAD EARLY
TUE MORNING AND THEN OFFSHORE BY TUE AFTN. MORE PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE TUE AFTN/NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO AND ACROSS THE
AREA. EXPECT A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN DETERIORATED CONDITIONS EARLY
WED...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WED
AFTN/EVENING. PRECIPITATION BEGINS AS ALL RAIN ON WED...AND IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A SNOW/SLEET MIX AND THEN TO PRIMARILY
SNOW FROM NW TO SE THU AFTN/EVENING. PERIODS OF IFR CIGS/VIS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE AREA FRI THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH LITTLE
TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK/SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTH OF THE WATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE BECOME NLY...BUT WEAK LOW-LEVEL CAA HAS
RESULTED IN SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT IN THE BAY/RIVER/SOUND AND
AOB 20 KT COASTAL WATERS. THIS AS WINDS A FEW THOUSAND FT ALOFT
RANGE FROM 30-35KT. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. HAVE
DROPPED SCA HEADLINES ALL WATER EXPECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH
OF THE VA/NC BORDER AS BETTER FETCH WILL RESULT IN 4-5 FT SEAS
TONIGHT. HEADLINES RUN THRU LATE TONIGHT. ~1030+MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WATER TONIGHT...SLIDING OFFSHORE TUES. FLOW BECOMES
SELY BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH AOB 15 KT. WARM FRONT PROGGED TO LIFT
OVER THE WATER LATE TUES NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SWLY
FLOW INCREASES LATE TUES NIGHT...BUT SO DOES WAA OVER VERY COLD
WATER. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT MAYBE ONLY A FEW
GUSTS TO 20 KT LATE TUES NIGHT-EARLY WEDS MORNING IN THE BAY. SEAS
BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT 20 NM OUT LATE TUES THRU WEDS...BEFORE
SUBSIDING WEDS NIGHT AOB 4 FT. FRONT IS SLOW TO CROSS THE WATER
WEDS-WEDS NIGHT. CAA SURGES INTO THE REGION LATE WEDS
NIGHT...CONTINUING THRU THURS NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH A NLY WIND. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT (HIGHEST IN THE SRN WATERS)
THURS...SUBSIDING FRI MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRI INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...ALB/MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...BMD/JDM
MARINE...SAM






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 022106
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
406 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
RATHER NICE EARLY MARCH AFTN ACRS THE FA. HAS TURNED OUT P/MSUNNY
ACRS THE FA...W/ TEMPS RETURNING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL (INTO THE
M/U40S NE TO THE M50S SW). SFC HI PRES WILL BE BUILDING OVR THE
MTNS THIS EVE...THEN BECOME CENTERED OVR THE FA BY LT TNGT.
RMNG MNLY SKC THIS EVE...THEN THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF STORMS
TO THE W BEGINS TO SPREAD CLDNS INTO THE RGN. LO TEMPS MNLY RANGING
THROUGH THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CENTER OF SFC HI PRES SLOLY EXITS TO THE E ON TUE...BUT LO LVL CAD
RMNS OVR THE FA. CLDNS WILL CONT TO INCRS TUE MRNG LIMITING TEMP
RISE. SOME LGT PCPN MAY BREAKOUT...ESP FAR WNW AREAS...DURING THE
MIDDAY HRS...THEN BETTER COVERAGE OF PCPN ACRS FA XPCD BY MID/LT
AFTN. MDL SOUNDINGS CONT TO HINT AT PTNTL FOR BRIEF PD OF FZRA OVR
FAR NNW AREAS AS TEMPS STRUGGLE TO REACH 32F THROUGH EARLY AFTN.
CONFIDENCE RMNS LO ATTM...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WINTER WX
ADVISORY. OTRW...P-TYPE TO BE RA OVR THE RGN TUE AFTN/EVE. HI
TEMPS TO BE REACHED LT IN THE DAY...RANGING FM THE M/U30S NW-CNTRL
LOCATIONS TO L40S SE.

WARM FRONT TO LIFT NE THROUGH THE FA TUE NGT. BEST MOISTURE AND
UVM ACRS CNTRL/NRN PORTIONS OF FA...THUS THE HIGHEST POPS...W/
WITH CHC POPS LIMITED TO SRN VA/NE NC. BULK OF THE RA LIFTS TO NRN
PORTION BY LT AT NGT. LO TEMPS LIKELY ARND 00Z/04 WITH RISING TEMPS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPS BY 12Z/04 WED RISE INTO THE U40S- M50S.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRONG SSW FLOW.
THERE RMN TIMING ISSUES W/ THE APPROACHING CDFNT FM THE NNW...AS
12Z/02 NAM ABOUT 12HRS SLOWER THAN THE 12Z/02 GFS. AGAIN...THE
12Z/02 ECMWF SEEMS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS
(40-60%) BY AFTN ACRS NRN TIER OF FA...W/ SLGT CHC TO CHC (20-40%)
TO THE S. FOR NOW...LEAVING OUT ANY MENTION OF T ACRS SRN VA/NE
NC...SINCE IT APRS MOST OF MOISTURE CONFINED TO W/ AND BEHIND THE
FNT. HI TEMPS FM THE U50S/L60S N TO L70S IN FAR SE VA/NE NC.

JUST ONE YEAR AGO...MARCH 2ND-3RD...WENT FM 60S TO L70S (THE 2ND)
TO A FEW INCHES OF SN (ON THE 3RD). THIS MAY OCCUR AGN THIS WK
(WED-THU).

FCST CHALLENGES CONT WED NGT THROUGH THU AS CDFNT SETTLES SSE
THROUGH THE FA...AND ANOTHER AREA OF ARCTIC SFC HI PRES BUILDS TWD
THE MS/OH VLYS. WILL LEAN TWD THE FASTER ARRIVAL OF COLDER SFC
AIR FM THE NNW (GFS/ECMWF) BY LT WED NGT AND CONTG ON THU. THE
MDLS EACH HINT AT WK SFC LO PRES TRACKING THROUGH NC AS S/W ALOFT
(IN FAST SWLY FLO) IS SHEARED AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE RGN. ALL
THIS LEADS TO A TRANSITION (WRT P-TYPE) LT WED/THU. RA...BECOMES
MIXED W/ IP-CHANGING TO SN/IP THEN ENDING AS SN FM NNW TO SE ACRS
THE FA (LASTLY ACRS NE NC BY MID OR LT AFTN THU). TIMING THOSE
TRANSITIONS AT THIS POINT VERY DIFFICULT...THOUGH CURRENTLY EXPECT
A LEAST LGT SN ACCUMS FOR AREAS N OF THE NC/VA BORDER BEFORE THE
DAY ENDS THU (T-2 INCHES S...1-4 INCHES N (HIGHEST PTNTTLY FM
RIC-SBY)). ALONG W/ THE TRANSITION TO WINTRY PCPN...GUSTY NNE WNDS
WILL BE PUSHING COLDER AIR INTO THE RGN. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM ARND
30F N TO THE L40S FAR S. TEMPS THU STEADY OR FALLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED IN WAKE OF THURS COLD FRONT...BUT
MODERATING TEMPS THRU THE WEEKEND WILL BRING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE THURS NIGHT WITH THE NRN PORTION OF THE
FRONT PUSHING WELL OFFSHORE. SRN PORTION PUSHES SWD OVER THE GULF
STATES/NRN GULF...STALLING IN WLY FLOW ALOFT. ENDED CHANCE POPS NEAR
THE COAST AT MIDNIGHT...WITH DRYING/CLEARING CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.
1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FRI...RESULTING
IN ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. H85
TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND -12C (-2 STD DEV)...WITH THICKNESSES
YIELDING TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI
NIGHT WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING MODERATE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.
TEMPS FORECAST IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS FRI NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. THEREAFTER...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE THANKS
TO DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW OVER THE WRN CONUS. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
AGAIN BE CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC FLOW (TROUGHING) OVER THE ERN
CONUS AND RIDGING (RETURN TO A +PNA) OVER THE WRN CONUS. MODELS
STRUGGLING WITH A NUMBER OF CANADIAN IMPULSES SET TO IMPACT THE NE
STATES...BUT ALSO SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE BAJA THIS WEEKEND.
ECMWF RATHER ROBUST WITH THIS ENERGY...TRANSLATING ACROSS NRN MEXICO
AND THE SRN PLAINS SAT NIGHT-SUN...POSSIBLY PHASING WITH NRN STREAM
ENERGY OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS SOLUTION WOULD LIFT THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF NWD LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
RAIN TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS SHEARS THE
ENERGY...KEEPING IT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...KEEPING THE LOCAL
AREA DRY. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD A WPC/ENSEMBLE APPROACH WHICH
KEEPS THE SRN STREAM WAVE FLAT AND THE LOCAL AREA DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND..WITH MODERATING TEMPS. HIGHS SAT FORECAST IN THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-MID 40S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS SUN IN THE
MID 50S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 40S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION IS MAINLY CLEAR OF LOWERED CIGS EARLY THIS
AFTN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KECG....WHICH IS QUICKLY SEEING
IMPROVEMENTS THIS HOUR (OR 02/1800Z). HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THE HIGH SLIDES OVERHEAD EARLY
TUE MORNING AND THEN OFFSHORE BY TUE AFTN. MORE PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE TUE AFTN/NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO AND ACROSS THE
AREA. EXPECT A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN DETERIORATED CONDITIONS EARLY
WED...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WED
AFTN/EVENING. PRECIPITATION BEGINS AS ALL RAIN ON WED...AND IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A SNOW/SLEET MIX AND THEN TO PRIMARILY
SNOW FROM NW TO SE THU AFTN/EVENING. PERIODS OF IFR CIGS/VIS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE AREA FRI THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH LITTLE
TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK/SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTH OF THE WATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE BECOME NLY...BUT WEAK LOW-LEVEL CAA HAS
RESULTED IN SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT IN THE BAY/RIVER/SOUND AND
AOB 20 KT COASTAL WATERS. THIS AS WINDS A FEW THOUSAND FT ALOFT
RANGE FROM 30-35KT. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. HAVE
DROPPED SCA HEADLINES ALL WATER EXPECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH
OF THE VA/NC BORDER AS BETTER FETCH WILL RESULT IN 4-5 FT SEAS
TONIGHT. HEADLINES RUN THRU LATE TONIGHT. ~1030+MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WATER TONIGHT...SLIDING OFFSHORE TUES. FLOW BECOMES
SELY BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH AOB 15 KT. WARM FRONT PROGGED TO LIFT
OVER THE WATER LATE TUES NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SWLY
FLOW INCREASES LATE TUES NIGHT...BUT SO DOES WAA OVER VERY COLD
WATER. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT MAYBE ONLY A FEW
GUSTS TO 20 KT LATE TUES NIGHT-EARLY WEDS MORNING IN THE BAY. SEAS
BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT 20 NM OUT LATE TUES THRU WEDS...BEFORE
SUBSIDING WEDS NIGHT AOB 4 FT. FRONT IS SLOW TO CROSS THE WATER
WEDS-WEDS NIGHT. CAA SURGES INTO THE REGION LATE WEDS
NIGHT...CONTINUING THRU THURS NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH A NLY WIND. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT (HIGHEST IN THE SRN WATERS)
THURS...SUBSIDING FRI MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRI INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...ALB/MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...BMD/JDM
MARINE...SAM







000
FXUS61 KRNK 022055
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
355 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND OFF THE COAST THIS
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT...CROSSING THE
OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
TUESDAY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 930 AM EST MONDAY...

A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WSR-88D SHOWED A FEW NARROW BANDS OF SNOW
AND RAIN DIMINISHING THIS MORNING. MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO DIMINISH  POPS
THIS MORNING WITH DRY AIR PUNCH AND DOWNSLOPING EFFECT. LEANED
POPS TOWARDS RNK WRF-ARW FOR NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MODIFIED
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON ACCORDING TO SFC
OBS AND MODEL TRENDS.

AS OF 500 AM EST MONDAY...

A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH THE MORNING AND WILL BE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY NOON. MODELS HOLD A MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE FAR WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA
THIS MORNING. PUSH OF DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE ENOUGH
TO END CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND CLEAR OUR MUCH OF THE FOG AND
CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY TODAY AND WEDGES DOWN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS
TONIGHT.

850 MB WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE 45 TO 55 KNOTS WITH PRESSURE
RISES 5 TO 7 MB/6 HOURS THIS MORNING. WILL HAVE WINDS GUSTING JUST
BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL...UP TO 50 MPH THIS MORNING. WINDS DIMINISH
THIS AFTERNOON AND THE TURN TO THE EAST THEN SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS
THE WEDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED. THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK NORTH ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND EASTERN
SLOPES OVERNIGHT.

COLDER AIR COMES IN BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY...BUT WITH SHRINKING
AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION AND SOME SUN IN THE
AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE. AS WIND
DROPS OFF THIS EVENING...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BUT AS CLOUD FILL
BACK IN LATE TONIGHT DROP IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED.

HAVE ADDED PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR
THE TYPICAL UPSLOPE AREA ALONG AND EAST OF THE SOUTHERN BLUE
RIDGE. BUFKIT SHOWED A WARM NOSE AROUND 3000 FT AGL AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST MONDAY...

COMPLICATED SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH MULTIPLE CONCERNS. TO BEGIN
TUESDAY NIGHT...ANY REMNANTS OF EARLIER WEDGE WILL BE LONG GONE TO
THE NORTHEAST WITH THE AREA SOLIDLY IN THE WARM SECTOR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING AND CONTINUING TO RISE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON THE HEELS OF A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
LLJ. CONSEQUENTLY...ANY ASSOCIATED WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION
WILL ALSO HAVE LIFTED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. NOW...THE
ATTENTION SHIFTS TO THE ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF...590+ DM AT
THAT...WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR
WILL PLUNGE INITIALLY SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. AS
THE ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONT SLOWS ITS PUSH INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST STATES THANKS TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE
AND THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. THIS HOLDS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
WEST OF OUR CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MUCH OF THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS. FINALLY...WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...THE FRONT WILL BEGIN A BETTER SOUTHEASTWARD
PUSH AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY KICKS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WOULD
EXPECT HEAVIER RAIN TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA BY
00Z WED...THEN BEGIN TO SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.

MEANWHILE...PART OF THE UPPER TROUGH LAGS BEHIND AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES IN RESPONSE. THIS
WILL FURTHER DELAY THE PUSH OF THE PRECIPITATION INTO/THROUGH THE
CWA...BUT PERHAPS NOT THE SHALLOW COLD ARCTIC AIR ONCE IT MANGES
TO CROSS THE APPALACHIANS. QUITE A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS PRESENTED
BY THE MODELS AND WPC AS TO THE WINTER WEATHER THREAT THURSDAY
GIVEN THAT THIS IS FAR FROM A NORMAL SYNOPTIC SITUATION FOR A SNOW
EVENT IN THIS REGION. THE BIG QUESTION IS NOT WHETHER OR NOT THERE
WILL BE PRECIPITATION...BUT HOW QUICKLY WILL THE COLD AIR SPREAD
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...BEFORE THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT...AND HOW QUICKLY WILL THE COLD AIR BECOME
DEEP ENOUGH TO CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION TO SNOW. AM INCLINED AT
THIS POINT TO THROW OUT RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN SCENARIOS...NOT ONLY
BECAUSE IT IS NOT CLIMATOLOGICALLY OR SYNOPTICALLY FAVORABLE IN
THIS SITUATION...BUT THINKING IS THAT COLD AIR WILL BECOME DEEP
ENOUGH QUICKLY ENOUGH TO CHANGE RAIN OVER TO SNOW...OTHER THAN A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CHANGEOVER.
FURTHERMORE...GROUND TEMPS WILL NOT SUPPORT FZRA AT THE CHANGEOVER
TIME AS THE SOUNDING COLUMN COOLS ISOTHERMALLY. FINALLY...THIS IS
YET AGAIN A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR MASS...SO ONCE IT ENTERS THE
REGION...COOLING WILL BE QUICK...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-81. FOR SNOW
AMOUNTS...A PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE...FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH WPC
WWD...IS 4-5 INCHES NORTH...2-4 INCHES CENTRAL/WESTERN AREAS...1-2
INCHES VA PIEDMONT...LITTLE TO NONE NC PIEDMONT.

SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THE FLOOD
THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH COMBINED RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT. DID
ADVERTISE A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN WEDNESDAY EVENING FROM WEST TO
EAST...BUT HAVE REDUCED THE TIME PERIOD OF SUCH COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGES.

TEMPERATURE WISE...A LOT OF NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO RISE TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING AND REMAINING MILD/ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL
THE ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES IN THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PIEDMONT
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL
THURSDAY MORNING. LIKEWISE...A NON-DIURNAL COOLING TREND EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY AS ARCTIC AIR SPREADS INTO THE REGION.
THE GFS IN PARTICULAR SHOW SFC TEMPS BELOW ZERO IN OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES BY FRIDAY MORNING. GIVEN THAT IT IS EARLY MARCH AND THE
850MB TEMPS ARE ONLY AROUND -16C...AS COMPARED TO -26C A COUPLE OF
WEEKS AGO...I FIND THIS SOMEWHAT EXTREME. NONETHELESS...IT IS A
VERY COLD AIR MASS AND WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EST MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...AND BE IN
CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGH WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...AND MAKE ITS
WAY TO THE COAST BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A TREND TOWARD
MILDER CONDITIONS AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA BECOMES
GRADUALLY MORE SW-W...WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND RISING 850 TEMPS
TAKE PLACE.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY A GENEROUS AMOUNT OF VARIATIONS IN THE MODELS
TAKE PLACE. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM EVENTUALLY COME INTO
AGREEMENT OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF CONUS BY
MONDAY OR TUESDAY OR NEXT WEEK...HOW THE SOLUTIONS COME TO BE THAT
WAY HAVE NOTABLE DIFFERENCES. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN
ESTABLISHING THE TROUGH IN THE EAST BY SUNDAY...AND ANY SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEMS EASILY BYPASS OUR REGION EXITING THE U.S. NEAR THE
GA/FL BORDER. THE ECWMF IS NOT A QUICK TO ESTABLISH AN EAST COAST
TROUGH...AND A SUCH...SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS HAVE A BETTER
OPPORTUNITY TO PROGRESS NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR REGION ON THE EAST
SIDE OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

OUR FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BE A CONSENSUS OF THESE
TWO...WITH IT RESEMBLING A WATERED DOWN VERSION OF THE ECWMF IN
TERMS OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
ALSO STAYING ON MORE OF THE MILD SIDE THAN COLD IN REGARDS TO
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1237 PM EST MONDAY...

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SCT TO BKN MVFR CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WEDGE DOWN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS
TONIGHT. AS SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHWEST...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN NORTH ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR
AT KBCB AND KDAN AFTER 06Z/1AM. LIGHT RAIN...FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. A WINTRY
MIXTURE TUESDAY MORNING WILL TRANSITION TO MAINLY RAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
PERIOD.


EXTENDED FORECAST...

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT ALL OF THE REGION
WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY
AND WINTER PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

FRIDAY SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR WEATHER.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 300 PM EST MONDAY

LIKELY TO SEE SOME SUBSTANTIAL RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS IN
RESPONSE TO UPCOMING RAIN EVENT AND SNOWMELT IN THE
MOUNTAINS...QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT HOW SUBSTANTIAL. SIGNIFICANT SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE NOW CONFINED TO PARTS OF THE UPPER JAMES AND
GREENBRIER RIVER BASINS WHERE THE LATEST AVAILABLE ESTIMATES FROM
THE NATIONAL OPERATIONAL REMOTE SENSING CENTER SHOW ROUGHLY 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT WITH ISOLATED 4 INCHES IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE GREENBRIER. IN THE OTHER MAJOR RIVER
BASINS...NEW...ROANOKE/DAN AND TENNESSEE... MELTING OVER THE
WEEKEND AND TODAY HAS REDUCED THE SNOW TO LESS THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW
WATER AND IN MOST PLACES ZERO. THE OTHER ELEMENT OF COURSE IS THE
QPF. 12Z MODELS (INCLUDING LATEST EC) HAVE NUDGED THE HEAVIEST
QPF A LITTLE MORE TO THE WEST...REDUCING AMOUNTS IN THE JAMES AND
GREENBRIER SOME. IT STILL APPEARS AS IF 1 TO 2 INCHES COULD FALL
ACROSS THE WESTERN BASINS BY 12Z THURSDAY AND COMBINED WITH
SNOWMELT THIS COULD PRODUCE AT LEAST MINOR RIVER FLOODING ALONG
THE GREENBRIER AND POSSIBLY THE UPPER JAMES. GUIDANCE RECEIVED
FROM OHRFC THIS MORNING SUGGESTED MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT ALDERSON WV
ON THE GREENBRIER LIKELY BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH THE COMBINED
SNOWMELT AND QPF. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTIES WILL
HOLD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     VAZ018>020-022>024-034-035-045>047.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ007-009-010-012-015-016.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     VAZ011-013-014-017-032-033-043.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     WVZ507-508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR WVZ042.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     WVZ043-044.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...KK
HYDROLOGY...PC




000
FXUS61 KRNK 022055
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
355 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND OFF THE COAST THIS
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT...CROSSING THE
OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
TUESDAY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 930 AM EST MONDAY...

A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WSR-88D SHOWED A FEW NARROW BANDS OF SNOW
AND RAIN DIMINISHING THIS MORNING. MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO DIMINISH  POPS
THIS MORNING WITH DRY AIR PUNCH AND DOWNSLOPING EFFECT. LEANED
POPS TOWARDS RNK WRF-ARW FOR NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MODIFIED
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON ACCORDING TO SFC
OBS AND MODEL TRENDS.

AS OF 500 AM EST MONDAY...

A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH THE MORNING AND WILL BE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY NOON. MODELS HOLD A MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE FAR WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA
THIS MORNING. PUSH OF DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE ENOUGH
TO END CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND CLEAR OUR MUCH OF THE FOG AND
CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY TODAY AND WEDGES DOWN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS
TONIGHT.

850 MB WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE 45 TO 55 KNOTS WITH PRESSURE
RISES 5 TO 7 MB/6 HOURS THIS MORNING. WILL HAVE WINDS GUSTING JUST
BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL...UP TO 50 MPH THIS MORNING. WINDS DIMINISH
THIS AFTERNOON AND THE TURN TO THE EAST THEN SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS
THE WEDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED. THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK NORTH ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND EASTERN
SLOPES OVERNIGHT.

COLDER AIR COMES IN BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY...BUT WITH SHRINKING
AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION AND SOME SUN IN THE
AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE. AS WIND
DROPS OFF THIS EVENING...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BUT AS CLOUD FILL
BACK IN LATE TONIGHT DROP IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED.

HAVE ADDED PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR
THE TYPICAL UPSLOPE AREA ALONG AND EAST OF THE SOUTHERN BLUE
RIDGE. BUFKIT SHOWED A WARM NOSE AROUND 3000 FT AGL AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST MONDAY...

COMPLICATED SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH MULTIPLE CONCERNS. TO BEGIN
TUESDAY NIGHT...ANY REMNANTS OF EARLIER WEDGE WILL BE LONG GONE TO
THE NORTHEAST WITH THE AREA SOLIDLY IN THE WARM SECTOR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING AND CONTINUING TO RISE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON THE HEELS OF A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
LLJ. CONSEQUENTLY...ANY ASSOCIATED WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION
WILL ALSO HAVE LIFTED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. NOW...THE
ATTENTION SHIFTS TO THE ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF...590+ DM AT
THAT...WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR
WILL PLUNGE INITIALLY SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. AS
THE ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONT SLOWS ITS PUSH INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST STATES THANKS TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE
AND THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. THIS HOLDS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
WEST OF OUR CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MUCH OF THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS. FINALLY...WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...THE FRONT WILL BEGIN A BETTER SOUTHEASTWARD
PUSH AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY KICKS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WOULD
EXPECT HEAVIER RAIN TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA BY
00Z WED...THEN BEGIN TO SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.

MEANWHILE...PART OF THE UPPER TROUGH LAGS BEHIND AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES IN RESPONSE. THIS
WILL FURTHER DELAY THE PUSH OF THE PRECIPITATION INTO/THROUGH THE
CWA...BUT PERHAPS NOT THE SHALLOW COLD ARCTIC AIR ONCE IT MANGES
TO CROSS THE APPALACHIANS. QUITE A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS PRESENTED
BY THE MODELS AND WPC AS TO THE WINTER WEATHER THREAT THURSDAY
GIVEN THAT THIS IS FAR FROM A NORMAL SYNOPTIC SITUATION FOR A SNOW
EVENT IN THIS REGION. THE BIG QUESTION IS NOT WHETHER OR NOT THERE
WILL BE PRECIPITATION...BUT HOW QUICKLY WILL THE COLD AIR SPREAD
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...BEFORE THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT...AND HOW QUICKLY WILL THE COLD AIR BECOME
DEEP ENOUGH TO CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION TO SNOW. AM INCLINED AT
THIS POINT TO THROW OUT RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN SCENARIOS...NOT ONLY
BECAUSE IT IS NOT CLIMATOLOGICALLY OR SYNOPTICALLY FAVORABLE IN
THIS SITUATION...BUT THINKING IS THAT COLD AIR WILL BECOME DEEP
ENOUGH QUICKLY ENOUGH TO CHANGE RAIN OVER TO SNOW...OTHER THAN A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CHANGEOVER.
FURTHERMORE...GROUND TEMPS WILL NOT SUPPORT FZRA AT THE CHANGEOVER
TIME AS THE SOUNDING COLUMN COOLS ISOTHERMALLY. FINALLY...THIS IS
YET AGAIN A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR MASS...SO ONCE IT ENTERS THE
REGION...COOLING WILL BE QUICK...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-81. FOR SNOW
AMOUNTS...A PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE...FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH WPC
WWD...IS 4-5 INCHES NORTH...2-4 INCHES CENTRAL/WESTERN AREAS...1-2
INCHES VA PIEDMONT...LITTLE TO NONE NC PIEDMONT.

SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THE FLOOD
THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH COMBINED RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT. DID
ADVERTISE A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN WEDNESDAY EVENING FROM WEST TO
EAST...BUT HAVE REDUCED THE TIME PERIOD OF SUCH COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGES.

TEMPERATURE WISE...A LOT OF NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO RISE TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING AND REMAINING MILD/ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL
THE ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES IN THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PIEDMONT
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL
THURSDAY MORNING. LIKEWISE...A NON-DIURNAL COOLING TREND EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY AS ARCTIC AIR SPREADS INTO THE REGION.
THE GFS IN PARTICULAR SHOW SFC TEMPS BELOW ZERO IN OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES BY FRIDAY MORNING. GIVEN THAT IT IS EARLY MARCH AND THE
850MB TEMPS ARE ONLY AROUND -16C...AS COMPARED TO -26C A COUPLE OF
WEEKS AGO...I FIND THIS SOMEWHAT EXTREME. NONETHELESS...IT IS A
VERY COLD AIR MASS AND WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EST MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...AND BE IN
CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGH WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...AND MAKE ITS
WAY TO THE COAST BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A TREND TOWARD
MILDER CONDITIONS AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA BECOMES
GRADUALLY MORE SW-W...WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND RISING 850 TEMPS
TAKE PLACE.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY A GENEROUS AMOUNT OF VARIATIONS IN THE MODELS
TAKE PLACE. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM EVENTUALLY COME INTO
AGREEMENT OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF CONUS BY
MONDAY OR TUESDAY OR NEXT WEEK...HOW THE SOLUTIONS COME TO BE THAT
WAY HAVE NOTABLE DIFFERENCES. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN
ESTABLISHING THE TROUGH IN THE EAST BY SUNDAY...AND ANY SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEMS EASILY BYPASS OUR REGION EXITING THE U.S. NEAR THE
GA/FL BORDER. THE ECWMF IS NOT A QUICK TO ESTABLISH AN EAST COAST
TROUGH...AND A SUCH...SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS HAVE A BETTER
OPPORTUNITY TO PROGRESS NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR REGION ON THE EAST
SIDE OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

OUR FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BE A CONSENSUS OF THESE
TWO...WITH IT RESEMBLING A WATERED DOWN VERSION OF THE ECWMF IN
TERMS OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
ALSO STAYING ON MORE OF THE MILD SIDE THAN COLD IN REGARDS TO
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1237 PM EST MONDAY...

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SCT TO BKN MVFR CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WEDGE DOWN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS
TONIGHT. AS SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHWEST...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN NORTH ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR
AT KBCB AND KDAN AFTER 06Z/1AM. LIGHT RAIN...FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. A WINTRY
MIXTURE TUESDAY MORNING WILL TRANSITION TO MAINLY RAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
PERIOD.


EXTENDED FORECAST...

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT ALL OF THE REGION
WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY
AND WINTER PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

FRIDAY SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR WEATHER.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 300 PM EST MONDAY

LIKELY TO SEE SOME SUBSTANTIAL RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS IN
RESPONSE TO UPCOMING RAIN EVENT AND SNOWMELT IN THE
MOUNTAINS...QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT HOW SUBSTANTIAL. SIGNIFICANT SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE NOW CONFINED TO PARTS OF THE UPPER JAMES AND
GREENBRIER RIVER BASINS WHERE THE LATEST AVAILABLE ESTIMATES FROM
THE NATIONAL OPERATIONAL REMOTE SENSING CENTER SHOW ROUGHLY 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT WITH ISOLATED 4 INCHES IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE GREENBRIER. IN THE OTHER MAJOR RIVER
BASINS...NEW...ROANOKE/DAN AND TENNESSEE... MELTING OVER THE
WEEKEND AND TODAY HAS REDUCED THE SNOW TO LESS THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW
WATER AND IN MOST PLACES ZERO. THE OTHER ELEMENT OF COURSE IS THE
QPF. 12Z MODELS (INCLUDING LATEST EC) HAVE NUDGED THE HEAVIEST
QPF A LITTLE MORE TO THE WEST...REDUCING AMOUNTS IN THE JAMES AND
GREENBRIER SOME. IT STILL APPEARS AS IF 1 TO 2 INCHES COULD FALL
ACROSS THE WESTERN BASINS BY 12Z THURSDAY AND COMBINED WITH
SNOWMELT THIS COULD PRODUCE AT LEAST MINOR RIVER FLOODING ALONG
THE GREENBRIER AND POSSIBLY THE UPPER JAMES. GUIDANCE RECEIVED
FROM OHRFC THIS MORNING SUGGESTED MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT ALDERSON WV
ON THE GREENBRIER LIKELY BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH THE COMBINED
SNOWMELT AND QPF. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTIES WILL
HOLD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     VAZ018>020-022>024-034-035-045>047.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ007-009-010-012-015-016.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     VAZ011-013-014-017-032-033-043.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     WVZ507-508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR WVZ042.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     WVZ043-044.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...KK
HYDROLOGY...PC



000
FXUS61 KRNK 022055
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
355 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND OFF THE COAST THIS
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT...CROSSING THE
OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
TUESDAY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 930 AM EST MONDAY...

A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WSR-88D SHOWED A FEW NARROW BANDS OF SNOW
AND RAIN DIMINISHING THIS MORNING. MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO DIMINISH  POPS
THIS MORNING WITH DRY AIR PUNCH AND DOWNSLOPING EFFECT. LEANED
POPS TOWARDS RNK WRF-ARW FOR NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MODIFIED
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON ACCORDING TO SFC
OBS AND MODEL TRENDS.

AS OF 500 AM EST MONDAY...

A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH THE MORNING AND WILL BE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY NOON. MODELS HOLD A MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE FAR WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA
THIS MORNING. PUSH OF DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE ENOUGH
TO END CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND CLEAR OUR MUCH OF THE FOG AND
CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY TODAY AND WEDGES DOWN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS
TONIGHT.

850 MB WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE 45 TO 55 KNOTS WITH PRESSURE
RISES 5 TO 7 MB/6 HOURS THIS MORNING. WILL HAVE WINDS GUSTING JUST
BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL...UP TO 50 MPH THIS MORNING. WINDS DIMINISH
THIS AFTERNOON AND THE TURN TO THE EAST THEN SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS
THE WEDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED. THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK NORTH ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND EASTERN
SLOPES OVERNIGHT.

COLDER AIR COMES IN BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY...BUT WITH SHRINKING
AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION AND SOME SUN IN THE
AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE. AS WIND
DROPS OFF THIS EVENING...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BUT AS CLOUD FILL
BACK IN LATE TONIGHT DROP IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED.

HAVE ADDED PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR
THE TYPICAL UPSLOPE AREA ALONG AND EAST OF THE SOUTHERN BLUE
RIDGE. BUFKIT SHOWED A WARM NOSE AROUND 3000 FT AGL AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST MONDAY...

COMPLICATED SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH MULTIPLE CONCERNS. TO BEGIN
TUESDAY NIGHT...ANY REMNANTS OF EARLIER WEDGE WILL BE LONG GONE TO
THE NORTHEAST WITH THE AREA SOLIDLY IN THE WARM SECTOR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING AND CONTINUING TO RISE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON THE HEELS OF A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
LLJ. CONSEQUENTLY...ANY ASSOCIATED WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION
WILL ALSO HAVE LIFTED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. NOW...THE
ATTENTION SHIFTS TO THE ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF...590+ DM AT
THAT...WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR
WILL PLUNGE INITIALLY SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. AS
THE ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONT SLOWS ITS PUSH INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST STATES THANKS TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE
AND THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. THIS HOLDS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
WEST OF OUR CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MUCH OF THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS. FINALLY...WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...THE FRONT WILL BEGIN A BETTER SOUTHEASTWARD
PUSH AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY KICKS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WOULD
EXPECT HEAVIER RAIN TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA BY
00Z WED...THEN BEGIN TO SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.

MEANWHILE...PART OF THE UPPER TROUGH LAGS BEHIND AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES IN RESPONSE. THIS
WILL FURTHER DELAY THE PUSH OF THE PRECIPITATION INTO/THROUGH THE
CWA...BUT PERHAPS NOT THE SHALLOW COLD ARCTIC AIR ONCE IT MANGES
TO CROSS THE APPALACHIANS. QUITE A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS PRESENTED
BY THE MODELS AND WPC AS TO THE WINTER WEATHER THREAT THURSDAY
GIVEN THAT THIS IS FAR FROM A NORMAL SYNOPTIC SITUATION FOR A SNOW
EVENT IN THIS REGION. THE BIG QUESTION IS NOT WHETHER OR NOT THERE
WILL BE PRECIPITATION...BUT HOW QUICKLY WILL THE COLD AIR SPREAD
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...BEFORE THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT...AND HOW QUICKLY WILL THE COLD AIR BECOME
DEEP ENOUGH TO CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION TO SNOW. AM INCLINED AT
THIS POINT TO THROW OUT RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN SCENARIOS...NOT ONLY
BECAUSE IT IS NOT CLIMATOLOGICALLY OR SYNOPTICALLY FAVORABLE IN
THIS SITUATION...BUT THINKING IS THAT COLD AIR WILL BECOME DEEP
ENOUGH QUICKLY ENOUGH TO CHANGE RAIN OVER TO SNOW...OTHER THAN A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CHANGEOVER.
FURTHERMORE...GROUND TEMPS WILL NOT SUPPORT FZRA AT THE CHANGEOVER
TIME AS THE SOUNDING COLUMN COOLS ISOTHERMALLY. FINALLY...THIS IS
YET AGAIN A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR MASS...SO ONCE IT ENTERS THE
REGION...COOLING WILL BE QUICK...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-81. FOR SNOW
AMOUNTS...A PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE...FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH WPC
WWD...IS 4-5 INCHES NORTH...2-4 INCHES CENTRAL/WESTERN AREAS...1-2
INCHES VA PIEDMONT...LITTLE TO NONE NC PIEDMONT.

SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THE FLOOD
THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH COMBINED RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT. DID
ADVERTISE A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN WEDNESDAY EVENING FROM WEST TO
EAST...BUT HAVE REDUCED THE TIME PERIOD OF SUCH COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGES.

TEMPERATURE WISE...A LOT OF NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO RISE TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING AND REMAINING MILD/ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL
THE ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES IN THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PIEDMONT
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL
THURSDAY MORNING. LIKEWISE...A NON-DIURNAL COOLING TREND EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY AS ARCTIC AIR SPREADS INTO THE REGION.
THE GFS IN PARTICULAR SHOW SFC TEMPS BELOW ZERO IN OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES BY FRIDAY MORNING. GIVEN THAT IT IS EARLY MARCH AND THE
850MB TEMPS ARE ONLY AROUND -16C...AS COMPARED TO -26C A COUPLE OF
WEEKS AGO...I FIND THIS SOMEWHAT EXTREME. NONETHELESS...IT IS A
VERY COLD AIR MASS AND WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EST MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...AND BE IN
CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGH WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...AND MAKE ITS
WAY TO THE COAST BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A TREND TOWARD
MILDER CONDITIONS AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA BECOMES
GRADUALLY MORE SW-W...WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND RISING 850 TEMPS
TAKE PLACE.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY A GENEROUS AMOUNT OF VARIATIONS IN THE MODELS
TAKE PLACE. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM EVENTUALLY COME INTO
AGREEMENT OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF CONUS BY
MONDAY OR TUESDAY OR NEXT WEEK...HOW THE SOLUTIONS COME TO BE THAT
WAY HAVE NOTABLE DIFFERENCES. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN
ESTABLISHING THE TROUGH IN THE EAST BY SUNDAY...AND ANY SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEMS EASILY BYPASS OUR REGION EXITING THE U.S. NEAR THE
GA/FL BORDER. THE ECWMF IS NOT A QUICK TO ESTABLISH AN EAST COAST
TROUGH...AND A SUCH...SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS HAVE A BETTER
OPPORTUNITY TO PROGRESS NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR REGION ON THE EAST
SIDE OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

OUR FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BE A CONSENSUS OF THESE
TWO...WITH IT RESEMBLING A WATERED DOWN VERSION OF THE ECWMF IN
TERMS OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
ALSO STAYING ON MORE OF THE MILD SIDE THAN COLD IN REGARDS TO
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1237 PM EST MONDAY...

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SCT TO BKN MVFR CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WEDGE DOWN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS
TONIGHT. AS SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHWEST...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN NORTH ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR
AT KBCB AND KDAN AFTER 06Z/1AM. LIGHT RAIN...FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. A WINTRY
MIXTURE TUESDAY MORNING WILL TRANSITION TO MAINLY RAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
PERIOD.


EXTENDED FORECAST...

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT ALL OF THE REGION
WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY
AND WINTER PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

FRIDAY SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR WEATHER.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 300 PM EST MONDAY

LIKELY TO SEE SOME SUBSTANTIAL RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS IN
RESPONSE TO UPCOMING RAIN EVENT AND SNOWMELT IN THE
MOUNTAINS...QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT HOW SUBSTANTIAL. SIGNIFICANT SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE NOW CONFINED TO PARTS OF THE UPPER JAMES AND
GREENBRIER RIVER BASINS WHERE THE LATEST AVAILABLE ESTIMATES FROM
THE NATIONAL OPERATIONAL REMOTE SENSING CENTER SHOW ROUGHLY 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT WITH ISOLATED 4 INCHES IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE GREENBRIER. IN THE OTHER MAJOR RIVER
BASINS...NEW...ROANOKE/DAN AND TENNESSEE... MELTING OVER THE
WEEKEND AND TODAY HAS REDUCED THE SNOW TO LESS THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW
WATER AND IN MOST PLACES ZERO. THE OTHER ELEMENT OF COURSE IS THE
QPF. 12Z MODELS (INCLUDING LATEST EC) HAVE NUDGED THE HEAVIEST
QPF A LITTLE MORE TO THE WEST...REDUCING AMOUNTS IN THE JAMES AND
GREENBRIER SOME. IT STILL APPEARS AS IF 1 TO 2 INCHES COULD FALL
ACROSS THE WESTERN BASINS BY 12Z THURSDAY AND COMBINED WITH
SNOWMELT THIS COULD PRODUCE AT LEAST MINOR RIVER FLOODING ALONG
THE GREENBRIER AND POSSIBLY THE UPPER JAMES. GUIDANCE RECEIVED
FROM OHRFC THIS MORNING SUGGESTED MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT ALDERSON WV
ON THE GREENBRIER LIKELY BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH THE COMBINED
SNOWMELT AND QPF. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTIES WILL
HOLD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     VAZ018>020-022>024-034-035-045>047.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ007-009-010-012-015-016.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     VAZ011-013-014-017-032-033-043.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     WVZ507-508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR WVZ042.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     WVZ043-044.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...KK
HYDROLOGY...PC



000
FXUS61 KRNK 022055
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
355 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND OFF THE COAST THIS
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT...CROSSING THE
OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
TUESDAY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 930 AM EST MONDAY...

A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WSR-88D SHOWED A FEW NARROW BANDS OF SNOW
AND RAIN DIMINISHING THIS MORNING. MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO DIMINISH  POPS
THIS MORNING WITH DRY AIR PUNCH AND DOWNSLOPING EFFECT. LEANED
POPS TOWARDS RNK WRF-ARW FOR NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MODIFIED
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON ACCORDING TO SFC
OBS AND MODEL TRENDS.

AS OF 500 AM EST MONDAY...

A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH THE MORNING AND WILL BE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY NOON. MODELS HOLD A MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE FAR WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA
THIS MORNING. PUSH OF DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE ENOUGH
TO END CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND CLEAR OUR MUCH OF THE FOG AND
CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY TODAY AND WEDGES DOWN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS
TONIGHT.

850 MB WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE 45 TO 55 KNOTS WITH PRESSURE
RISES 5 TO 7 MB/6 HOURS THIS MORNING. WILL HAVE WINDS GUSTING JUST
BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL...UP TO 50 MPH THIS MORNING. WINDS DIMINISH
THIS AFTERNOON AND THE TURN TO THE EAST THEN SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS
THE WEDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED. THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK NORTH ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND EASTERN
SLOPES OVERNIGHT.

COLDER AIR COMES IN BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY...BUT WITH SHRINKING
AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION AND SOME SUN IN THE
AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE. AS WIND
DROPS OFF THIS EVENING...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BUT AS CLOUD FILL
BACK IN LATE TONIGHT DROP IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED.

HAVE ADDED PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR
THE TYPICAL UPSLOPE AREA ALONG AND EAST OF THE SOUTHERN BLUE
RIDGE. BUFKIT SHOWED A WARM NOSE AROUND 3000 FT AGL AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST MONDAY...

COMPLICATED SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH MULTIPLE CONCERNS. TO BEGIN
TUESDAY NIGHT...ANY REMNANTS OF EARLIER WEDGE WILL BE LONG GONE TO
THE NORTHEAST WITH THE AREA SOLIDLY IN THE WARM SECTOR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING AND CONTINUING TO RISE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON THE HEELS OF A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
LLJ. CONSEQUENTLY...ANY ASSOCIATED WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION
WILL ALSO HAVE LIFTED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. NOW...THE
ATTENTION SHIFTS TO THE ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF...590+ DM AT
THAT...WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR
WILL PLUNGE INITIALLY SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. AS
THE ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONT SLOWS ITS PUSH INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST STATES THANKS TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE
AND THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. THIS HOLDS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
WEST OF OUR CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MUCH OF THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS. FINALLY...WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...THE FRONT WILL BEGIN A BETTER SOUTHEASTWARD
PUSH AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY KICKS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WOULD
EXPECT HEAVIER RAIN TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA BY
00Z WED...THEN BEGIN TO SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.

MEANWHILE...PART OF THE UPPER TROUGH LAGS BEHIND AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES IN RESPONSE. THIS
WILL FURTHER DELAY THE PUSH OF THE PRECIPITATION INTO/THROUGH THE
CWA...BUT PERHAPS NOT THE SHALLOW COLD ARCTIC AIR ONCE IT MANGES
TO CROSS THE APPALACHIANS. QUITE A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS PRESENTED
BY THE MODELS AND WPC AS TO THE WINTER WEATHER THREAT THURSDAY
GIVEN THAT THIS IS FAR FROM A NORMAL SYNOPTIC SITUATION FOR A SNOW
EVENT IN THIS REGION. THE BIG QUESTION IS NOT WHETHER OR NOT THERE
WILL BE PRECIPITATION...BUT HOW QUICKLY WILL THE COLD AIR SPREAD
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...BEFORE THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT...AND HOW QUICKLY WILL THE COLD AIR BECOME
DEEP ENOUGH TO CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION TO SNOW. AM INCLINED AT
THIS POINT TO THROW OUT RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN SCENARIOS...NOT ONLY
BECAUSE IT IS NOT CLIMATOLOGICALLY OR SYNOPTICALLY FAVORABLE IN
THIS SITUATION...BUT THINKING IS THAT COLD AIR WILL BECOME DEEP
ENOUGH QUICKLY ENOUGH TO CHANGE RAIN OVER TO SNOW...OTHER THAN A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CHANGEOVER.
FURTHERMORE...GROUND TEMPS WILL NOT SUPPORT FZRA AT THE CHANGEOVER
TIME AS THE SOUNDING COLUMN COOLS ISOTHERMALLY. FINALLY...THIS IS
YET AGAIN A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR MASS...SO ONCE IT ENTERS THE
REGION...COOLING WILL BE QUICK...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-81. FOR SNOW
AMOUNTS...A PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE...FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH WPC
WWD...IS 4-5 INCHES NORTH...2-4 INCHES CENTRAL/WESTERN AREAS...1-2
INCHES VA PIEDMONT...LITTLE TO NONE NC PIEDMONT.

SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THE FLOOD
THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH COMBINED RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT. DID
ADVERTISE A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN WEDNESDAY EVENING FROM WEST TO
EAST...BUT HAVE REDUCED THE TIME PERIOD OF SUCH COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGES.

TEMPERATURE WISE...A LOT OF NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO RISE TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING AND REMAINING MILD/ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL
THE ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES IN THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PIEDMONT
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL
THURSDAY MORNING. LIKEWISE...A NON-DIURNAL COOLING TREND EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY AS ARCTIC AIR SPREADS INTO THE REGION.
THE GFS IN PARTICULAR SHOW SFC TEMPS BELOW ZERO IN OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES BY FRIDAY MORNING. GIVEN THAT IT IS EARLY MARCH AND THE
850MB TEMPS ARE ONLY AROUND -16C...AS COMPARED TO -26C A COUPLE OF
WEEKS AGO...I FIND THIS SOMEWHAT EXTREME. NONETHELESS...IT IS A
VERY COLD AIR MASS AND WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EST MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...AND BE IN
CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGH WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...AND MAKE ITS
WAY TO THE COAST BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A TREND TOWARD
MILDER CONDITIONS AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA BECOMES
GRADUALLY MORE SW-W...WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND RISING 850 TEMPS
TAKE PLACE.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY A GENEROUS AMOUNT OF VARIATIONS IN THE MODELS
TAKE PLACE. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM EVENTUALLY COME INTO
AGREEMENT OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF CONUS BY
MONDAY OR TUESDAY OR NEXT WEEK...HOW THE SOLUTIONS COME TO BE THAT
WAY HAVE NOTABLE DIFFERENCES. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN
ESTABLISHING THE TROUGH IN THE EAST BY SUNDAY...AND ANY SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEMS EASILY BYPASS OUR REGION EXITING THE U.S. NEAR THE
GA/FL BORDER. THE ECWMF IS NOT A QUICK TO ESTABLISH AN EAST COAST
TROUGH...AND A SUCH...SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS HAVE A BETTER
OPPORTUNITY TO PROGRESS NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR REGION ON THE EAST
SIDE OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

OUR FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BE A CONSENSUS OF THESE
TWO...WITH IT RESEMBLING A WATERED DOWN VERSION OF THE ECWMF IN
TERMS OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
ALSO STAYING ON MORE OF THE MILD SIDE THAN COLD IN REGARDS TO
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1237 PM EST MONDAY...

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SCT TO BKN MVFR CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WEDGE DOWN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS
TONIGHT. AS SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHWEST...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN NORTH ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR
AT KBCB AND KDAN AFTER 06Z/1AM. LIGHT RAIN...FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. A WINTRY
MIXTURE TUESDAY MORNING WILL TRANSITION TO MAINLY RAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
PERIOD.


EXTENDED FORECAST...

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT ALL OF THE REGION
WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY
AND WINTER PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

FRIDAY SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR WEATHER.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 300 PM EST MONDAY

LIKELY TO SEE SOME SUBSTANTIAL RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS IN
RESPONSE TO UPCOMING RAIN EVENT AND SNOWMELT IN THE
MOUNTAINS...QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT HOW SUBSTANTIAL. SIGNIFICANT SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE NOW CONFINED TO PARTS OF THE UPPER JAMES AND
GREENBRIER RIVER BASINS WHERE THE LATEST AVAILABLE ESTIMATES FROM
THE NATIONAL OPERATIONAL REMOTE SENSING CENTER SHOW ROUGHLY 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT WITH ISOLATED 4 INCHES IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE GREENBRIER. IN THE OTHER MAJOR RIVER
BASINS...NEW...ROANOKE/DAN AND TENNESSEE... MELTING OVER THE
WEEKEND AND TODAY HAS REDUCED THE SNOW TO LESS THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW
WATER AND IN MOST PLACES ZERO. THE OTHER ELEMENT OF COURSE IS THE
QPF. 12Z MODELS (INCLUDING LATEST EC) HAVE NUDGED THE HEAVIEST
QPF A LITTLE MORE TO THE WEST...REDUCING AMOUNTS IN THE JAMES AND
GREENBRIER SOME. IT STILL APPEARS AS IF 1 TO 2 INCHES COULD FALL
ACROSS THE WESTERN BASINS BY 12Z THURSDAY AND COMBINED WITH
SNOWMELT THIS COULD PRODUCE AT LEAST MINOR RIVER FLOODING ALONG
THE GREENBRIER AND POSSIBLY THE UPPER JAMES. GUIDANCE RECEIVED
FROM OHRFC THIS MORNING SUGGESTED MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT ALDERSON WV
ON THE GREENBRIER LIKELY BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH THE COMBINED
SNOWMELT AND QPF. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTIES WILL
HOLD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     VAZ018>020-022>024-034-035-045>047.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ007-009-010-012-015-016.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     VAZ011-013-014-017-032-033-043.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     WVZ507-508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR WVZ042.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     WVZ043-044.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...KK
HYDROLOGY...PC



000
FXUS61 KRNK 022055
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
355 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND OFF THE COAST THIS
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT...CROSSING THE
OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
TUESDAY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 930 AM EST MONDAY...

A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WSR-88D SHOWED A FEW NARROW BANDS OF SNOW
AND RAIN DIMINISHING THIS MORNING. MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO DIMINISH  POPS
THIS MORNING WITH DRY AIR PUNCH AND DOWNSLOPING EFFECT. LEANED
POPS TOWARDS RNK WRF-ARW FOR NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MODIFIED
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON ACCORDING TO SFC
OBS AND MODEL TRENDS.

AS OF 500 AM EST MONDAY...

A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH THE MORNING AND WILL BE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY NOON. MODELS HOLD A MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE FAR WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA
THIS MORNING. PUSH OF DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE ENOUGH
TO END CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND CLEAR OUR MUCH OF THE FOG AND
CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY TODAY AND WEDGES DOWN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS
TONIGHT.

850 MB WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE 45 TO 55 KNOTS WITH PRESSURE
RISES 5 TO 7 MB/6 HOURS THIS MORNING. WILL HAVE WINDS GUSTING JUST
BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL...UP TO 50 MPH THIS MORNING. WINDS DIMINISH
THIS AFTERNOON AND THE TURN TO THE EAST THEN SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS
THE WEDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED. THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK NORTH ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND EASTERN
SLOPES OVERNIGHT.

COLDER AIR COMES IN BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY...BUT WITH SHRINKING
AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION AND SOME SUN IN THE
AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE. AS WIND
DROPS OFF THIS EVENING...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BUT AS CLOUD FILL
BACK IN LATE TONIGHT DROP IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED.

HAVE ADDED PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR
THE TYPICAL UPSLOPE AREA ALONG AND EAST OF THE SOUTHERN BLUE
RIDGE. BUFKIT SHOWED A WARM NOSE AROUND 3000 FT AGL AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST MONDAY...

COMPLICATED SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH MULTIPLE CONCERNS. TO BEGIN
TUESDAY NIGHT...ANY REMNANTS OF EARLIER WEDGE WILL BE LONG GONE TO
THE NORTHEAST WITH THE AREA SOLIDLY IN THE WARM SECTOR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING AND CONTINUING TO RISE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON THE HEELS OF A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
LLJ. CONSEQUENTLY...ANY ASSOCIATED WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION
WILL ALSO HAVE LIFTED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. NOW...THE
ATTENTION SHIFTS TO THE ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF...590+ DM AT
THAT...WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR
WILL PLUNGE INITIALLY SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. AS
THE ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONT SLOWS ITS PUSH INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST STATES THANKS TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE
AND THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. THIS HOLDS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
WEST OF OUR CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MUCH OF THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS. FINALLY...WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...THE FRONT WILL BEGIN A BETTER SOUTHEASTWARD
PUSH AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY KICKS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WOULD
EXPECT HEAVIER RAIN TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA BY
00Z WED...THEN BEGIN TO SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.

MEANWHILE...PART OF THE UPPER TROUGH LAGS BEHIND AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES IN RESPONSE. THIS
WILL FURTHER DELAY THE PUSH OF THE PRECIPITATION INTO/THROUGH THE
CWA...BUT PERHAPS NOT THE SHALLOW COLD ARCTIC AIR ONCE IT MANGES
TO CROSS THE APPALACHIANS. QUITE A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS PRESENTED
BY THE MODELS AND WPC AS TO THE WINTER WEATHER THREAT THURSDAY
GIVEN THAT THIS IS FAR FROM A NORMAL SYNOPTIC SITUATION FOR A SNOW
EVENT IN THIS REGION. THE BIG QUESTION IS NOT WHETHER OR NOT THERE
WILL BE PRECIPITATION...BUT HOW QUICKLY WILL THE COLD AIR SPREAD
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...BEFORE THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT...AND HOW QUICKLY WILL THE COLD AIR BECOME
DEEP ENOUGH TO CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION TO SNOW. AM INCLINED AT
THIS POINT TO THROW OUT RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN SCENARIOS...NOT ONLY
BECAUSE IT IS NOT CLIMATOLOGICALLY OR SYNOPTICALLY FAVORABLE IN
THIS SITUATION...BUT THINKING IS THAT COLD AIR WILL BECOME DEEP
ENOUGH QUICKLY ENOUGH TO CHANGE RAIN OVER TO SNOW...OTHER THAN A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CHANGEOVER.
FURTHERMORE...GROUND TEMPS WILL NOT SUPPORT FZRA AT THE CHANGEOVER
TIME AS THE SOUNDING COLUMN COOLS ISOTHERMALLY. FINALLY...THIS IS
YET AGAIN A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR MASS...SO ONCE IT ENTERS THE
REGION...COOLING WILL BE QUICK...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-81. FOR SNOW
AMOUNTS...A PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE...FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH WPC
WWD...IS 4-5 INCHES NORTH...2-4 INCHES CENTRAL/WESTERN AREAS...1-2
INCHES VA PIEDMONT...LITTLE TO NONE NC PIEDMONT.

SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THE FLOOD
THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH COMBINED RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT. DID
ADVERTISE A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN WEDNESDAY EVENING FROM WEST TO
EAST...BUT HAVE REDUCED THE TIME PERIOD OF SUCH COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGES.

TEMPERATURE WISE...A LOT OF NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO RISE TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING AND REMAINING MILD/ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL
THE ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES IN THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PIEDMONT
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL
THURSDAY MORNING. LIKEWISE...A NON-DIURNAL COOLING TREND EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY AS ARCTIC AIR SPREADS INTO THE REGION.
THE GFS IN PARTICULAR SHOW SFC TEMPS BELOW ZERO IN OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES BY FRIDAY MORNING. GIVEN THAT IT IS EARLY MARCH AND THE
850MB TEMPS ARE ONLY AROUND -16C...AS COMPARED TO -26C A COUPLE OF
WEEKS AGO...I FIND THIS SOMEWHAT EXTREME. NONETHELESS...IT IS A
VERY COLD AIR MASS AND WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EST MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...AND BE IN
CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGH WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...AND MAKE ITS
WAY TO THE COAST BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A TREND TOWARD
MILDER CONDITIONS AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA BECOMES
GRADUALLY MORE SW-W...WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND RISING 850 TEMPS
TAKE PLACE.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY A GENEROUS AMOUNT OF VARIATIONS IN THE MODELS
TAKE PLACE. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM EVENTUALLY COME INTO
AGREEMENT OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF CONUS BY
MONDAY OR TUESDAY OR NEXT WEEK...HOW THE SOLUTIONS COME TO BE THAT
WAY HAVE NOTABLE DIFFERENCES. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN
ESTABLISHING THE TROUGH IN THE EAST BY SUNDAY...AND ANY SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEMS EASILY BYPASS OUR REGION EXITING THE U.S. NEAR THE
GA/FL BORDER. THE ECWMF IS NOT A QUICK TO ESTABLISH AN EAST COAST
TROUGH...AND A SUCH...SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS HAVE A BETTER
OPPORTUNITY TO PROGRESS NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR REGION ON THE EAST
SIDE OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

OUR FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BE A CONSENSUS OF THESE
TWO...WITH IT RESEMBLING A WATERED DOWN VERSION OF THE ECWMF IN
TERMS OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
ALSO STAYING ON MORE OF THE MILD SIDE THAN COLD IN REGARDS TO
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1237 PM EST MONDAY...

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SCT TO BKN MVFR CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WEDGE DOWN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS
TONIGHT. AS SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHWEST...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN NORTH ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR
AT KBCB AND KDAN AFTER 06Z/1AM. LIGHT RAIN...FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. A WINTRY
MIXTURE TUESDAY MORNING WILL TRANSITION TO MAINLY RAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
PERIOD.


EXTENDED FORECAST...

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT ALL OF THE REGION
WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY
AND WINTER PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

FRIDAY SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR WEATHER.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 300 PM EST MONDAY

LIKELY TO SEE SOME SUBSTANTIAL RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS IN
RESPONSE TO UPCOMING RAIN EVENT AND SNOWMELT IN THE
MOUNTAINS...QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT HOW SUBSTANTIAL. SIGNIFICANT SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE NOW CONFINED TO PARTS OF THE UPPER JAMES AND
GREENBRIER RIVER BASINS WHERE THE LATEST AVAILABLE ESTIMATES FROM
THE NATIONAL OPERATIONAL REMOTE SENSING CENTER SHOW ROUGHLY 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT WITH ISOLATED 4 INCHES IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE GREENBRIER. IN THE OTHER MAJOR RIVER
BASINS...NEW...ROANOKE/DAN AND TENNESSEE... MELTING OVER THE
WEEKEND AND TODAY HAS REDUCED THE SNOW TO LESS THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW
WATER AND IN MOST PLACES ZERO. THE OTHER ELEMENT OF COURSE IS THE
QPF. 12Z MODELS (INCLUDING LATEST EC) HAVE NUDGED THE HEAVIEST
QPF A LITTLE MORE TO THE WEST...REDUCING AMOUNTS IN THE JAMES AND
GREENBRIER SOME. IT STILL APPEARS AS IF 1 TO 2 INCHES COULD FALL
ACROSS THE WESTERN BASINS BY 12Z THURSDAY AND COMBINED WITH
SNOWMELT THIS COULD PRODUCE AT LEAST MINOR RIVER FLOODING ALONG
THE GREENBRIER AND POSSIBLY THE UPPER JAMES. GUIDANCE RECEIVED
FROM OHRFC THIS MORNING SUGGESTED MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT ALDERSON WV
ON THE GREENBRIER LIKELY BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH THE COMBINED
SNOWMELT AND QPF. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTIES WILL
HOLD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     VAZ018>020-022>024-034-035-045>047.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ007-009-010-012-015-016.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     VAZ011-013-014-017-032-033-043.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     WVZ507-508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR WVZ042.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     WVZ043-044.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...KK
HYDROLOGY...PC



000
FXUS61 KRNK 022055
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
355 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND OFF THE COAST THIS
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT...CROSSING THE
OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
TUESDAY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 930 AM EST MONDAY...

A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WSR-88D SHOWED A FEW NARROW BANDS OF SNOW
AND RAIN DIMINISHING THIS MORNING. MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO DIMINISH  POPS
THIS MORNING WITH DRY AIR PUNCH AND DOWNSLOPING EFFECT. LEANED
POPS TOWARDS RNK WRF-ARW FOR NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MODIFIED
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON ACCORDING TO SFC
OBS AND MODEL TRENDS.

AS OF 500 AM EST MONDAY...

A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH THE MORNING AND WILL BE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY NOON. MODELS HOLD A MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE FAR WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA
THIS MORNING. PUSH OF DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE ENOUGH
TO END CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND CLEAR OUR MUCH OF THE FOG AND
CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY TODAY AND WEDGES DOWN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS
TONIGHT.

850 MB WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE 45 TO 55 KNOTS WITH PRESSURE
RISES 5 TO 7 MB/6 HOURS THIS MORNING. WILL HAVE WINDS GUSTING JUST
BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL...UP TO 50 MPH THIS MORNING. WINDS DIMINISH
THIS AFTERNOON AND THE TURN TO THE EAST THEN SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS
THE WEDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED. THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK NORTH ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND EASTERN
SLOPES OVERNIGHT.

COLDER AIR COMES IN BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY...BUT WITH SHRINKING
AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION AND SOME SUN IN THE
AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE. AS WIND
DROPS OFF THIS EVENING...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BUT AS CLOUD FILL
BACK IN LATE TONIGHT DROP IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED.

HAVE ADDED PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR
THE TYPICAL UPSLOPE AREA ALONG AND EAST OF THE SOUTHERN BLUE
RIDGE. BUFKIT SHOWED A WARM NOSE AROUND 3000 FT AGL AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST MONDAY...

COMPLICATED SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH MULTIPLE CONCERNS. TO BEGIN
TUESDAY NIGHT...ANY REMNANTS OF EARLIER WEDGE WILL BE LONG GONE TO
THE NORTHEAST WITH THE AREA SOLIDLY IN THE WARM SECTOR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING AND CONTINUING TO RISE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON THE HEELS OF A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
LLJ. CONSEQUENTLY...ANY ASSOCIATED WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION
WILL ALSO HAVE LIFTED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. NOW...THE
ATTENTION SHIFTS TO THE ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF...590+ DM AT
THAT...WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR
WILL PLUNGE INITIALLY SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. AS
THE ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONT SLOWS ITS PUSH INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST STATES THANKS TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE
AND THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. THIS HOLDS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
WEST OF OUR CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MUCH OF THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS. FINALLY...WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...THE FRONT WILL BEGIN A BETTER SOUTHEASTWARD
PUSH AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY KICKS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WOULD
EXPECT HEAVIER RAIN TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA BY
00Z WED...THEN BEGIN TO SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.

MEANWHILE...PART OF THE UPPER TROUGH LAGS BEHIND AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES IN RESPONSE. THIS
WILL FURTHER DELAY THE PUSH OF THE PRECIPITATION INTO/THROUGH THE
CWA...BUT PERHAPS NOT THE SHALLOW COLD ARCTIC AIR ONCE IT MANGES
TO CROSS THE APPALACHIANS. QUITE A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS PRESENTED
BY THE MODELS AND WPC AS TO THE WINTER WEATHER THREAT THURSDAY
GIVEN THAT THIS IS FAR FROM A NORMAL SYNOPTIC SITUATION FOR A SNOW
EVENT IN THIS REGION. THE BIG QUESTION IS NOT WHETHER OR NOT THERE
WILL BE PRECIPITATION...BUT HOW QUICKLY WILL THE COLD AIR SPREAD
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...BEFORE THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT...AND HOW QUICKLY WILL THE COLD AIR BECOME
DEEP ENOUGH TO CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION TO SNOW. AM INCLINED AT
THIS POINT TO THROW OUT RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN SCENARIOS...NOT ONLY
BECAUSE IT IS NOT CLIMATOLOGICALLY OR SYNOPTICALLY FAVORABLE IN
THIS SITUATION...BUT THINKING IS THAT COLD AIR WILL BECOME DEEP
ENOUGH QUICKLY ENOUGH TO CHANGE RAIN OVER TO SNOW...OTHER THAN A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CHANGEOVER.
FURTHERMORE...GROUND TEMPS WILL NOT SUPPORT FZRA AT THE CHANGEOVER
TIME AS THE SOUNDING COLUMN COOLS ISOTHERMALLY. FINALLY...THIS IS
YET AGAIN A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR MASS...SO ONCE IT ENTERS THE
REGION...COOLING WILL BE QUICK...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-81. FOR SNOW
AMOUNTS...A PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE...FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH WPC
WWD...IS 4-5 INCHES NORTH...2-4 INCHES CENTRAL/WESTERN AREAS...1-2
INCHES VA PIEDMONT...LITTLE TO NONE NC PIEDMONT.

SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THE FLOOD
THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH COMBINED RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT. DID
ADVERTISE A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN WEDNESDAY EVENING FROM WEST TO
EAST...BUT HAVE REDUCED THE TIME PERIOD OF SUCH COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGES.

TEMPERATURE WISE...A LOT OF NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO RISE TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING AND REMAINING MILD/ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL
THE ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES IN THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PIEDMONT
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL
THURSDAY MORNING. LIKEWISE...A NON-DIURNAL COOLING TREND EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY AS ARCTIC AIR SPREADS INTO THE REGION.
THE GFS IN PARTICULAR SHOW SFC TEMPS BELOW ZERO IN OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES BY FRIDAY MORNING. GIVEN THAT IT IS EARLY MARCH AND THE
850MB TEMPS ARE ONLY AROUND -16C...AS COMPARED TO -26C A COUPLE OF
WEEKS AGO...I FIND THIS SOMEWHAT EXTREME. NONETHELESS...IT IS A
VERY COLD AIR MASS AND WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EST MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...AND BE IN
CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGH WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...AND MAKE ITS
WAY TO THE COAST BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A TREND TOWARD
MILDER CONDITIONS AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA BECOMES
GRADUALLY MORE SW-W...WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND RISING 850 TEMPS
TAKE PLACE.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY A GENEROUS AMOUNT OF VARIATIONS IN THE MODELS
TAKE PLACE. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM EVENTUALLY COME INTO
AGREEMENT OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF CONUS BY
MONDAY OR TUESDAY OR NEXT WEEK...HOW THE SOLUTIONS COME TO BE THAT
WAY HAVE NOTABLE DIFFERENCES. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN
ESTABLISHING THE TROUGH IN THE EAST BY SUNDAY...AND ANY SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEMS EASILY BYPASS OUR REGION EXITING THE U.S. NEAR THE
GA/FL BORDER. THE ECWMF IS NOT A QUICK TO ESTABLISH AN EAST COAST
TROUGH...AND A SUCH...SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS HAVE A BETTER
OPPORTUNITY TO PROGRESS NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR REGION ON THE EAST
SIDE OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

OUR FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BE A CONSENSUS OF THESE
TWO...WITH IT RESEMBLING A WATERED DOWN VERSION OF THE ECWMF IN
TERMS OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
ALSO STAYING ON MORE OF THE MILD SIDE THAN COLD IN REGARDS TO
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1237 PM EST MONDAY...

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SCT TO BKN MVFR CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WEDGE DOWN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS
TONIGHT. AS SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHWEST...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN NORTH ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR
AT KBCB AND KDAN AFTER 06Z/1AM. LIGHT RAIN...FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. A WINTRY
MIXTURE TUESDAY MORNING WILL TRANSITION TO MAINLY RAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
PERIOD.


EXTENDED FORECAST...

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT ALL OF THE REGION
WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY
AND WINTER PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

FRIDAY SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR WEATHER.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 300 PM EST MONDAY

LIKELY TO SEE SOME SUBSTANTIAL RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS IN
RESPONSE TO UPCOMING RAIN EVENT AND SNOWMELT IN THE
MOUNTAINS...QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT HOW SUBSTANTIAL. SIGNIFICANT SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE NOW CONFINED TO PARTS OF THE UPPER JAMES AND
GREENBRIER RIVER BASINS WHERE THE LATEST AVAILABLE ESTIMATES FROM
THE NATIONAL OPERATIONAL REMOTE SENSING CENTER SHOW ROUGHLY 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT WITH ISOLATED 4 INCHES IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE GREENBRIER. IN THE OTHER MAJOR RIVER
BASINS...NEW...ROANOKE/DAN AND TENNESSEE... MELTING OVER THE
WEEKEND AND TODAY HAS REDUCED THE SNOW TO LESS THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW
WATER AND IN MOST PLACES ZERO. THE OTHER ELEMENT OF COURSE IS THE
QPF. 12Z MODELS (INCLUDING LATEST EC) HAVE NUDGED THE HEAVIEST
QPF A LITTLE MORE TO THE WEST...REDUCING AMOUNTS IN THE JAMES AND
GREENBRIER SOME. IT STILL APPEARS AS IF 1 TO 2 INCHES COULD FALL
ACROSS THE WESTERN BASINS BY 12Z THURSDAY AND COMBINED WITH
SNOWMELT THIS COULD PRODUCE AT LEAST MINOR RIVER FLOODING ALONG
THE GREENBRIER AND POSSIBLY THE UPPER JAMES. GUIDANCE RECEIVED
FROM OHRFC THIS MORNING SUGGESTED MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT ALDERSON WV
ON THE GREENBRIER LIKELY BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH THE COMBINED
SNOWMELT AND QPF. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTIES WILL
HOLD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     VAZ018>020-022>024-034-035-045>047.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ007-009-010-012-015-016.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     VAZ011-013-014-017-032-033-043.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     WVZ507-508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR WVZ042.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     WVZ043-044.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...KK
HYDROLOGY...PC



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 022041
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
341 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
RATHER NICE EARLY MARCH AFTN ACRS THE FA. HAS TURNED OUT P/MSUNNY
ACRS THE FA...W/ TEMPS RETURNING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL (INTO THE
M/U40S NE TO THE M50S SW). SFC HI PRES WILL BE BUILDING OVR THE
MTNS THIS EVE...THEN BECOME CENTERED OVR THE FA BY LT TNGT.
RMNG MNLY SKC THIS EVE...THEN THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF STORMS
TO THE W BEGINS TO SPREAD CLDNS INTO THE RGN. LO TEMPS MNLY RANGING
THROUGH THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CENTER OF SFC HI PRES SLOLY EXITS TO THE E ON TUE...BUT LO LVL CAD
RMNS OVR THE FA. CLDNS WILL CONT TO INCRS TUE MRNG LIMITING TEMP
RISE. SOME LGT PCPN MAY BREAKOUT...ESP FAR WNW AREAS...DURING THE
MIDDAY HRS...THEN BETTER COVERAGE OF PCPN ACRS FA XPCD BY MID/LT
AFTN. MDL SOUNDINGS CONT TO HINT AT PTNTL FOR BRIEF PD OF FZRA OVR
FAR NNW AREAS AS TEMPS STRUGGLE TO REACH 32F THROUGH EARLY AFTN.
CONFIDENCE RMNS LO ATTM...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WINTER WX
ADVISORY. OTRW...P-TYPE TO BE RA OVR THE RGN TUE AFTN/EVE. HI
TEMPS TO BE REACHED LT IN THE DAY...RANGING FM THE M/U30S NW-CNTRL
LOCATIONS TO L40S SE.

WARM FRONT TO LIFT NE THROUGH THE FA TUE NGT. BEST MOISTURE AND
UVM ACRS CNTRL/NRN PORTIONS OF FA...THUS THE HIGHEST POPS...W/
WITH CHC POPS LIMITED TO SRN VA/NE NC. BULK OF THE RA LIFTS TO NRN
PORTION BY LT AT NGT. LO TEMPS LIKELY ARND 00Z/04 WITH RISING TEMPS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPS BY 12Z/04 WED RISE INTO THE U40S- M50S.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRONG SSW FLOW.
THERE RMN TIMING ISSUES W/ THE APPROACHING CDFNT FM THE NNW...AS
12Z/02 NAM ABOUT 12HRS SLOWER THAN THE 12Z/02 GFS. AGAIN...THE
12Z/02 ECMWF SEEMS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS
(40-60%) BY AFTN ACRS NRN TIER OF FA...W/ SLGT CHC TO CHC (20-40%)
TO THE S. FOR NOW...LEAVING OUT ANY MENTION OF T ACRS SRN VA/NE
NC...SINCE IT APRS MOST OF MOISTURE CONFINED TO W/ AND BEHIND THE
FNT. HI TEMPS FM THE U50S/L60S N TO L70S IN FAR SE VA/NE NC.

JUST ONE YEAR AGO...MARCH 2ND-3RD...WENT FM 60S TO L70S (THE 2ND)
TO A FEW INCHES OF SN (ON THE 3RD). THIS MAY OCCUR AGN THIS WK
(WED-THU).

FCST CHALLENGES CONT WED NGT THROUGH THU AS CDFNT SETTLES SSE
THROUGH THE FA...AND ANOTHER AREA OF ARCTIC SFC HI PRES BUILDS TWD
THE MS/OH VLYS. WILL LEAN TWD THE FASTER ARRIVAL OF COLDER SFC
AIR FM THE NNW (GFS/ECMWF) BY LT WED NGT AND CONTG ON THU. THE
MDLS EACH HINT AT WK SFC LO PRES TRACKING THROUGH NC AS S/W ALOFT
(IN FAST SWLY FLO) IS SHEARED AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE RGN. ALL
THIS LEADS TO A TRANSITION (WRT P-TYPE) LT WED/THU. RA...BECOMES
MIXED W/ IP-CHANGING TO SN/IP THEN ENDING AS SN FM NNW TO SE ACRS
THE FA (LASTLY ACRS NE NC BY MID OR LT AFTN THU). TIMING THOSE
TRANSITIONS AT THIS POINT VERY DIFFICULT...THOUGH CURRENTLY EXPECT
A LEAST LGT SN ACCUMS FOR AREAS N OF THE NC/VA BORDER BEFORE THE
DAY ENDS THU (T-2 INCHES S...1-4 INCHES N (HIGHEST PTNTTLY FM
RIC-SBY)). ALONG W/ THE TRANSITION TO WINTRY PCPN...GUSTY NNE WNDS
WILL BE PUSHING COLDER AIR INTO THE RGN. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM ARND
30F N TO THE L40S FAR S. TEMPS THU STEADY OR FALLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED IN WAKE OF THURS COLD FRONT...BUT
MODERATING TEMPS THRU THE WEEKEND WILL BRING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE THURS NIGHT WITH THE NRN PORTION OF THE
FRONT PUSHING WELL OFFSHORE. SRN PORTION PUSHES SWD OVER THE GULF
STATES/NRN GULF...STALLING IN WLY FLOW ALOFT. ENDED CHANCE POPS NEAR
THE COAST AT MIDNIGHT...WITH DRYING/CLEARING CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.
1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FRI...RESULTING
IN ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. H85
TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND -12C (-2 STD DEV)...WITH THICKNESSES
YIELDING TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI
NIGHT WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING MODERATE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.
TEMPS FORECAST IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS FRI NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. THEREAFTER...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE THANKS
TO DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW OVER THE WRN CONUS. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
AGAIN BE CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC FLOW (TROUGHING) OVER THE ERN
CONUS AND RIDGING (RETURN TO A +PNA) OVER THE WRN CONUS. MODELS
STRUGGLING WITH A NUMBER OF CANADIAN IMPULSES SET TO IMPACT THE NE
STATES...BUT ALSO SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE BAJA THIS WEEKEND.
ECMWF RATHER ROBUST WITH THIS ENERGY...TRANSLATING ACROSS NRN MEXICO
AND THE SRN PLAINS SAT NIGHT-SUN...POSSIBLY PHASING WITH NRN STREAM
ENERGY OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS SOLUTION WOULD LIFT THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF NWD LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
RAIN TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS SHEARS THE
ENERGY...KEEPING IT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...KEEPING THE LOCAL
AREA DRY. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD A WPC/ENSEMBLE APPROACH WHICH
KEEPS THE SRN STREAM WAVE FLAT AND THE LOCAL AREA DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND..WITH MODERATING TEMPS. HIGHS SAT FORECAST IN THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-MID 40S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS SUN IN THE
MID 50S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 40S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION IS MAINLY CLEAR OF LOWERED CIGS EARLY THIS
AFTN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KECG....WHICH IS QUICKLY SEEING
IMPROVEMENTS THIS HOUR (OR 02/1800Z). HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THE HIGH SLIDES OVERHEAD EARLY
TUE MORNING AND THEN OFFSHORE BY TUE AFTN. MORE PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE TUE AFTN/NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO AND ACROSS THE
AREA. EXPECT A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN DETERIORATED CONDITIONS EARLY
WED...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WED
AFTN/EVENING. PRECIPITATION BEGINS AS ALL RAIN ON WED...AND IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A SNOW/SLEET MIX AND THEN TO PRIMARILY
SNOW FROM NW TO SE THU AFTN/EVENING. PERIODS OF IFR CIGS/VIS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE AREA FRI THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH LITTLE
TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 1PM...CAA BEHIND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN RATHER
LIMITED AS TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE 40S COASTAL AREAS. WINDS A
FEW THOUSAND FT OFF THE WATER HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND
30-35KT...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR THE COLD WATER HAVE
PREVENTED THE HIGHER VELOCITY WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN. AS A
RESULT...THE SCA HEADLINES FOR THE BAY HAVE BEEN DROPPED. WILL RE-
EVALUATE THE COASTAL WATERS AS 5 FT SEAS MAY BE DIFFICULT TO REACH
GIVEN NW GUSTS AROUND 25 KT...OUTSIDE OF THE SRN COASTAL ZONES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SW WINDS 10-15KT WILL BECOME WEST THEN
NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT ON THE
BAY/OCEAN JUST BEHIND THE FRONT (HIGHEST NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS)...AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT SCA HEADLINES. WINDS
15 KT OR LESS ON THE RIVERS AND SOUND. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO LOWER ALMOST ALL
SCA`S BY 7PM. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR THE COASTAL ZONES
SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER WHERE 5FT SEAS WILL HOLD ON INTO THE
EVENING AS WINDS TURN TO THE N-NE.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE-E WINDS EXPECTED. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME S-SW AND
INCREASE TO SCA SPEEDS TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED AFTN BEFORE
DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT AND WAVES
BUILD TO 3-4 FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. A BRIEF LULL IN WIND SPEEDS
IS EXPECTED WED NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE REGION
AND TURNS WINDS OUT OF THE N-NW. ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...ALB/MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...BMD/JDM
MARINE...SAM




























000
FXUS61 KAKQ 022041
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
341 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
RATHER NICE EARLY MARCH AFTN ACRS THE FA. HAS TURNED OUT P/MSUNNY
ACRS THE FA...W/ TEMPS RETURNING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL (INTO THE
M/U40S NE TO THE M50S SW). SFC HI PRES WILL BE BUILDING OVR THE
MTNS THIS EVE...THEN BECOME CENTERED OVR THE FA BY LT TNGT.
RMNG MNLY SKC THIS EVE...THEN THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF STORMS
TO THE W BEGINS TO SPREAD CLDNS INTO THE RGN. LO TEMPS MNLY RANGING
THROUGH THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CENTER OF SFC HI PRES SLOLY EXITS TO THE E ON TUE...BUT LO LVL CAD
RMNS OVR THE FA. CLDNS WILL CONT TO INCRS TUE MRNG LIMITING TEMP
RISE. SOME LGT PCPN MAY BREAKOUT...ESP FAR WNW AREAS...DURING THE
MIDDAY HRS...THEN BETTER COVERAGE OF PCPN ACRS FA XPCD BY MID/LT
AFTN. MDL SOUNDINGS CONT TO HINT AT PTNTL FOR BRIEF PD OF FZRA OVR
FAR NNW AREAS AS TEMPS STRUGGLE TO REACH 32F THROUGH EARLY AFTN.
CONFIDENCE RMNS LO ATTM...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WINTER WX
ADVISORY. OTRW...P-TYPE TO BE RA OVR THE RGN TUE AFTN/EVE. HI
TEMPS TO BE REACHED LT IN THE DAY...RANGING FM THE M/U30S NW-CNTRL
LOCATIONS TO L40S SE.

WARM FRONT TO LIFT NE THROUGH THE FA TUE NGT. BEST MOISTURE AND
UVM ACRS CNTRL/NRN PORTIONS OF FA...THUS THE HIGHEST POPS...W/
WITH CHC POPS LIMITED TO SRN VA/NE NC. BULK OF THE RA LIFTS TO NRN
PORTION BY LT AT NGT. LO TEMPS LIKELY ARND 00Z/04 WITH RISING TEMPS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPS BY 12Z/04 WED RISE INTO THE U40S- M50S.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRONG SSW FLOW.
THERE RMN TIMING ISSUES W/ THE APPROACHING CDFNT FM THE NNW...AS
12Z/02 NAM ABOUT 12HRS SLOWER THAN THE 12Z/02 GFS. AGAIN...THE
12Z/02 ECMWF SEEMS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS
(40-60%) BY AFTN ACRS NRN TIER OF FA...W/ SLGT CHC TO CHC (20-40%)
TO THE S. FOR NOW...LEAVING OUT ANY MENTION OF T ACRS SRN VA/NE
NC...SINCE IT APRS MOST OF MOISTURE CONFINED TO W/ AND BEHIND THE
FNT. HI TEMPS FM THE U50S/L60S N TO L70S IN FAR SE VA/NE NC.

JUST ONE YEAR AGO...MARCH 2ND-3RD...WENT FM 60S TO L70S (THE 2ND)
TO A FEW INCHES OF SN (ON THE 3RD). THIS MAY OCCUR AGN THIS WK
(WED-THU).

FCST CHALLENGES CONT WED NGT THROUGH THU AS CDFNT SETTLES SSE
THROUGH THE FA...AND ANOTHER AREA OF ARCTIC SFC HI PRES BUILDS TWD
THE MS/OH VLYS. WILL LEAN TWD THE FASTER ARRIVAL OF COLDER SFC
AIR FM THE NNW (GFS/ECMWF) BY LT WED NGT AND CONTG ON THU. THE
MDLS EACH HINT AT WK SFC LO PRES TRACKING THROUGH NC AS S/W ALOFT
(IN FAST SWLY FLO) IS SHEARED AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE RGN. ALL
THIS LEADS TO A TRANSITION (WRT P-TYPE) LT WED/THU. RA...BECOMES
MIXED W/ IP-CHANGING TO SN/IP THEN ENDING AS SN FM NNW TO SE ACRS
THE FA (LASTLY ACRS NE NC BY MID OR LT AFTN THU). TIMING THOSE
TRANSITIONS AT THIS POINT VERY DIFFICULT...THOUGH CURRENTLY EXPECT
A LEAST LGT SN ACCUMS FOR AREAS N OF THE NC/VA BORDER BEFORE THE
DAY ENDS THU (T-2 INCHES S...1-4 INCHES N (HIGHEST PTNTTLY FM
RIC-SBY)). ALONG W/ THE TRANSITION TO WINTRY PCPN...GUSTY NNE WNDS
WILL BE PUSHING COLDER AIR INTO THE RGN. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM ARND
30F N TO THE L40S FAR S. TEMPS THU STEADY OR FALLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED IN WAKE OF THURS COLD FRONT...BUT
MODERATING TEMPS THRU THE WEEKEND WILL BRING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE THURS NIGHT WITH THE NRN PORTION OF THE
FRONT PUSHING WELL OFFSHORE. SRN PORTION PUSHES SWD OVER THE GULF
STATES/NRN GULF...STALLING IN WLY FLOW ALOFT. ENDED CHANCE POPS NEAR
THE COAST AT MIDNIGHT...WITH DRYING/CLEARING CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.
1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FRI...RESULTING
IN ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. H85
TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND -12C (-2 STD DEV)...WITH THICKNESSES
YIELDING TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI
NIGHT WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING MODERATE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.
TEMPS FORECAST IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS FRI NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. THEREAFTER...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE THANKS
TO DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW OVER THE WRN CONUS. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
AGAIN BE CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC FLOW (TROUGHING) OVER THE ERN
CONUS AND RIDGING (RETURN TO A +PNA) OVER THE WRN CONUS. MODELS
STRUGGLING WITH A NUMBER OF CANADIAN IMPULSES SET TO IMPACT THE NE
STATES...BUT ALSO SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE BAJA THIS WEEKEND.
ECMWF RATHER ROBUST WITH THIS ENERGY...TRANSLATING ACROSS NRN MEXICO
AND THE SRN PLAINS SAT NIGHT-SUN...POSSIBLY PHASING WITH NRN STREAM
ENERGY OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS SOLUTION WOULD LIFT THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF NWD LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
RAIN TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS SHEARS THE
ENERGY...KEEPING IT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...KEEPING THE LOCAL
AREA DRY. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD A WPC/ENSEMBLE APPROACH WHICH
KEEPS THE SRN STREAM WAVE FLAT AND THE LOCAL AREA DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND..WITH MODERATING TEMPS. HIGHS SAT FORECAST IN THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-MID 40S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS SUN IN THE
MID 50S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 40S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION IS MAINLY CLEAR OF LOWERED CIGS EARLY THIS
AFTN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KECG....WHICH IS QUICKLY SEEING
IMPROVEMENTS THIS HOUR (OR 02/1800Z). HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THE HIGH SLIDES OVERHEAD EARLY
TUE MORNING AND THEN OFFSHORE BY TUE AFTN. MORE PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE TUE AFTN/NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO AND ACROSS THE
AREA. EXPECT A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN DETERIORATED CONDITIONS EARLY
WED...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WED
AFTN/EVENING. PRECIPITATION BEGINS AS ALL RAIN ON WED...AND IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A SNOW/SLEET MIX AND THEN TO PRIMARILY
SNOW FROM NW TO SE THU AFTN/EVENING. PERIODS OF IFR CIGS/VIS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE AREA FRI THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH LITTLE
TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 1PM...CAA BEHIND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN RATHER
LIMITED AS TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE 40S COASTAL AREAS. WINDS A
FEW THOUSAND FT OFF THE WATER HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND
30-35KT...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR THE COLD WATER HAVE
PREVENTED THE HIGHER VELOCITY WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN. AS A
RESULT...THE SCA HEADLINES FOR THE BAY HAVE BEEN DROPPED. WILL RE-
EVALUATE THE COASTAL WATERS AS 5 FT SEAS MAY BE DIFFICULT TO REACH
GIVEN NW GUSTS AROUND 25 KT...OUTSIDE OF THE SRN COASTAL ZONES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SW WINDS 10-15KT WILL BECOME WEST THEN
NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT ON THE
BAY/OCEAN JUST BEHIND THE FRONT (HIGHEST NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS)...AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT SCA HEADLINES. WINDS
15 KT OR LESS ON THE RIVERS AND SOUND. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO LOWER ALMOST ALL
SCA`S BY 7PM. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR THE COASTAL ZONES
SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER WHERE 5FT SEAS WILL HOLD ON INTO THE
EVENING AS WINDS TURN TO THE N-NE.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE-E WINDS EXPECTED. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME S-SW AND
INCREASE TO SCA SPEEDS TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED AFTN BEFORE
DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT AND WAVES
BUILD TO 3-4 FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. A BRIEF LULL IN WIND SPEEDS
IS EXPECTED WED NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE REGION
AND TURNS WINDS OUT OF THE N-NW. ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...ALB/MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...BMD/JDM
MARINE...SAM




























000
FXUS61 KAKQ 022041
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
341 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
RATHER NICE EARLY MARCH AFTN ACRS THE FA. HAS TURNED OUT P/MSUNNY
ACRS THE FA...W/ TEMPS RETURNING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL (INTO THE
M/U40S NE TO THE M50S SW). SFC HI PRES WILL BE BUILDING OVR THE
MTNS THIS EVE...THEN BECOME CENTERED OVR THE FA BY LT TNGT.
RMNG MNLY SKC THIS EVE...THEN THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF STORMS
TO THE W BEGINS TO SPREAD CLDNS INTO THE RGN. LO TEMPS MNLY RANGING
THROUGH THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CENTER OF SFC HI PRES SLOLY EXITS TO THE E ON TUE...BUT LO LVL CAD
RMNS OVR THE FA. CLDNS WILL CONT TO INCRS TUE MRNG LIMITING TEMP
RISE. SOME LGT PCPN MAY BREAKOUT...ESP FAR WNW AREAS...DURING THE
MIDDAY HRS...THEN BETTER COVERAGE OF PCPN ACRS FA XPCD BY MID/LT
AFTN. MDL SOUNDINGS CONT TO HINT AT PTNTL FOR BRIEF PD OF FZRA OVR
FAR NNW AREAS AS TEMPS STRUGGLE TO REACH 32F THROUGH EARLY AFTN.
CONFIDENCE RMNS LO ATTM...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WINTER WX
ADVISORY. OTRW...P-TYPE TO BE RA OVR THE RGN TUE AFTN/EVE. HI
TEMPS TO BE REACHED LT IN THE DAY...RANGING FM THE M/U30S NW-CNTRL
LOCATIONS TO L40S SE.

WARM FRONT TO LIFT NE THROUGH THE FA TUE NGT. BEST MOISTURE AND
UVM ACRS CNTRL/NRN PORTIONS OF FA...THUS THE HIGHEST POPS...W/
WITH CHC POPS LIMITED TO SRN VA/NE NC. BULK OF THE RA LIFTS TO NRN
PORTION BY LT AT NGT. LO TEMPS LIKELY ARND 00Z/04 WITH RISING TEMPS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPS BY 12Z/04 WED RISE INTO THE U40S- M50S.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRONG SSW FLOW.
THERE RMN TIMING ISSUES W/ THE APPROACHING CDFNT FM THE NNW...AS
12Z/02 NAM ABOUT 12HRS SLOWER THAN THE 12Z/02 GFS. AGAIN...THE
12Z/02 ECMWF SEEMS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS
(40-60%) BY AFTN ACRS NRN TIER OF FA...W/ SLGT CHC TO CHC (20-40%)
TO THE S. FOR NOW...LEAVING OUT ANY MENTION OF T ACRS SRN VA/NE
NC...SINCE IT APRS MOST OF MOISTURE CONFINED TO W/ AND BEHIND THE
FNT. HI TEMPS FM THE U50S/L60S N TO L70S IN FAR SE VA/NE NC.

JUST ONE YEAR AGO...MARCH 2ND-3RD...WENT FM 60S TO L70S (THE 2ND)
TO A FEW INCHES OF SN (ON THE 3RD). THIS MAY OCCUR AGN THIS WK
(WED-THU).

FCST CHALLENGES CONT WED NGT THROUGH THU AS CDFNT SETTLES SSE
THROUGH THE FA...AND ANOTHER AREA OF ARCTIC SFC HI PRES BUILDS TWD
THE MS/OH VLYS. WILL LEAN TWD THE FASTER ARRIVAL OF COLDER SFC
AIR FM THE NNW (GFS/ECMWF) BY LT WED NGT AND CONTG ON THU. THE
MDLS EACH HINT AT WK SFC LO PRES TRACKING THROUGH NC AS S/W ALOFT
(IN FAST SWLY FLO) IS SHEARED AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE RGN. ALL
THIS LEADS TO A TRANSITION (WRT P-TYPE) LT WED/THU. RA...BECOMES
MIXED W/ IP-CHANGING TO SN/IP THEN ENDING AS SN FM NNW TO SE ACRS
THE FA (LASTLY ACRS NE NC BY MID OR LT AFTN THU). TIMING THOSE
TRANSITIONS AT THIS POINT VERY DIFFICULT...THOUGH CURRENTLY EXPECT
A LEAST LGT SN ACCUMS FOR AREAS N OF THE NC/VA BORDER BEFORE THE
DAY ENDS THU (T-2 INCHES S...1-4 INCHES N (HIGHEST PTNTTLY FM
RIC-SBY)). ALONG W/ THE TRANSITION TO WINTRY PCPN...GUSTY NNE WNDS
WILL BE PUSHING COLDER AIR INTO THE RGN. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM ARND
30F N TO THE L40S FAR S. TEMPS THU STEADY OR FALLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED IN WAKE OF THURS COLD FRONT...BUT
MODERATING TEMPS THRU THE WEEKEND WILL BRING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE THURS NIGHT WITH THE NRN PORTION OF THE
FRONT PUSHING WELL OFFSHORE. SRN PORTION PUSHES SWD OVER THE GULF
STATES/NRN GULF...STALLING IN WLY FLOW ALOFT. ENDED CHANCE POPS NEAR
THE COAST AT MIDNIGHT...WITH DRYING/CLEARING CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.
1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FRI...RESULTING
IN ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. H85
TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND -12C (-2 STD DEV)...WITH THICKNESSES
YIELDING TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI
NIGHT WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING MODERATE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.
TEMPS FORECAST IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS FRI NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. THEREAFTER...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE THANKS
TO DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW OVER THE WRN CONUS. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
AGAIN BE CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC FLOW (TROUGHING) OVER THE ERN
CONUS AND RIDGING (RETURN TO A +PNA) OVER THE WRN CONUS. MODELS
STRUGGLING WITH A NUMBER OF CANADIAN IMPULSES SET TO IMPACT THE NE
STATES...BUT ALSO SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE BAJA THIS WEEKEND.
ECMWF RATHER ROBUST WITH THIS ENERGY...TRANSLATING ACROSS NRN MEXICO
AND THE SRN PLAINS SAT NIGHT-SUN...POSSIBLY PHASING WITH NRN STREAM
ENERGY OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS SOLUTION WOULD LIFT THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF NWD LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
RAIN TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS SHEARS THE
ENERGY...KEEPING IT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...KEEPING THE LOCAL
AREA DRY. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD A WPC/ENSEMBLE APPROACH WHICH
KEEPS THE SRN STREAM WAVE FLAT AND THE LOCAL AREA DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND..WITH MODERATING TEMPS. HIGHS SAT FORECAST IN THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-MID 40S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS SUN IN THE
MID 50S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 40S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION IS MAINLY CLEAR OF LOWERED CIGS EARLY THIS
AFTN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KECG....WHICH IS QUICKLY SEEING
IMPROVEMENTS THIS HOUR (OR 02/1800Z). HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THE HIGH SLIDES OVERHEAD EARLY
TUE MORNING AND THEN OFFSHORE BY TUE AFTN. MORE PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE TUE AFTN/NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO AND ACROSS THE
AREA. EXPECT A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN DETERIORATED CONDITIONS EARLY
WED...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WED
AFTN/EVENING. PRECIPITATION BEGINS AS ALL RAIN ON WED...AND IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A SNOW/SLEET MIX AND THEN TO PRIMARILY
SNOW FROM NW TO SE THU AFTN/EVENING. PERIODS OF IFR CIGS/VIS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE AREA FRI THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH LITTLE
TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 1PM...CAA BEHIND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN RATHER
LIMITED AS TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE 40S COASTAL AREAS. WINDS A
FEW THOUSAND FT OFF THE WATER HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND
30-35KT...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR THE COLD WATER HAVE
PREVENTED THE HIGHER VELOCITY WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN. AS A
RESULT...THE SCA HEADLINES FOR THE BAY HAVE BEEN DROPPED. WILL RE-
EVALUATE THE COASTAL WATERS AS 5 FT SEAS MAY BE DIFFICULT TO REACH
GIVEN NW GUSTS AROUND 25 KT...OUTSIDE OF THE SRN COASTAL ZONES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SW WINDS 10-15KT WILL BECOME WEST THEN
NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT ON THE
BAY/OCEAN JUST BEHIND THE FRONT (HIGHEST NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS)...AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT SCA HEADLINES. WINDS
15 KT OR LESS ON THE RIVERS AND SOUND. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO LOWER ALMOST ALL
SCA`S BY 7PM. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR THE COASTAL ZONES
SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER WHERE 5FT SEAS WILL HOLD ON INTO THE
EVENING AS WINDS TURN TO THE N-NE.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE-E WINDS EXPECTED. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME S-SW AND
INCREASE TO SCA SPEEDS TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED AFTN BEFORE
DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT AND WAVES
BUILD TO 3-4 FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. A BRIEF LULL IN WIND SPEEDS
IS EXPECTED WED NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE REGION
AND TURNS WINDS OUT OF THE N-NW. ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...ALB/MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...BMD/JDM
MARINE...SAM





























000
FXUS61 KAKQ 022041
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
341 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
RATHER NICE EARLY MARCH AFTN ACRS THE FA. HAS TURNED OUT P/MSUNNY
ACRS THE FA...W/ TEMPS RETURNING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL (INTO THE
M/U40S NE TO THE M50S SW). SFC HI PRES WILL BE BUILDING OVR THE
MTNS THIS EVE...THEN BECOME CENTERED OVR THE FA BY LT TNGT.
RMNG MNLY SKC THIS EVE...THEN THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF STORMS
TO THE W BEGINS TO SPREAD CLDNS INTO THE RGN. LO TEMPS MNLY RANGING
THROUGH THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CENTER OF SFC HI PRES SLOLY EXITS TO THE E ON TUE...BUT LO LVL CAD
RMNS OVR THE FA. CLDNS WILL CONT TO INCRS TUE MRNG LIMITING TEMP
RISE. SOME LGT PCPN MAY BREAKOUT...ESP FAR WNW AREAS...DURING THE
MIDDAY HRS...THEN BETTER COVERAGE OF PCPN ACRS FA XPCD BY MID/LT
AFTN. MDL SOUNDINGS CONT TO HINT AT PTNTL FOR BRIEF PD OF FZRA OVR
FAR NNW AREAS AS TEMPS STRUGGLE TO REACH 32F THROUGH EARLY AFTN.
CONFIDENCE RMNS LO ATTM...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WINTER WX
ADVISORY. OTRW...P-TYPE TO BE RA OVR THE RGN TUE AFTN/EVE. HI
TEMPS TO BE REACHED LT IN THE DAY...RANGING FM THE M/U30S NW-CNTRL
LOCATIONS TO L40S SE.

WARM FRONT TO LIFT NE THROUGH THE FA TUE NGT. BEST MOISTURE AND
UVM ACRS CNTRL/NRN PORTIONS OF FA...THUS THE HIGHEST POPS...W/
WITH CHC POPS LIMITED TO SRN VA/NE NC. BULK OF THE RA LIFTS TO NRN
PORTION BY LT AT NGT. LO TEMPS LIKELY ARND 00Z/04 WITH RISING TEMPS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPS BY 12Z/04 WED RISE INTO THE U40S- M50S.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRONG SSW FLOW.
THERE RMN TIMING ISSUES W/ THE APPROACHING CDFNT FM THE NNW...AS
12Z/02 NAM ABOUT 12HRS SLOWER THAN THE 12Z/02 GFS. AGAIN...THE
12Z/02 ECMWF SEEMS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS
(40-60%) BY AFTN ACRS NRN TIER OF FA...W/ SLGT CHC TO CHC (20-40%)
TO THE S. FOR NOW...LEAVING OUT ANY MENTION OF T ACRS SRN VA/NE
NC...SINCE IT APRS MOST OF MOISTURE CONFINED TO W/ AND BEHIND THE
FNT. HI TEMPS FM THE U50S/L60S N TO L70S IN FAR SE VA/NE NC.

JUST ONE YEAR AGO...MARCH 2ND-3RD...WENT FM 60S TO L70S (THE 2ND)
TO A FEW INCHES OF SN (ON THE 3RD). THIS MAY OCCUR AGN THIS WK
(WED-THU).

FCST CHALLENGES CONT WED NGT THROUGH THU AS CDFNT SETTLES SSE
THROUGH THE FA...AND ANOTHER AREA OF ARCTIC SFC HI PRES BUILDS TWD
THE MS/OH VLYS. WILL LEAN TWD THE FASTER ARRIVAL OF COLDER SFC
AIR FM THE NNW (GFS/ECMWF) BY LT WED NGT AND CONTG ON THU. THE
MDLS EACH HINT AT WK SFC LO PRES TRACKING THROUGH NC AS S/W ALOFT
(IN FAST SWLY FLO) IS SHEARED AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE RGN. ALL
THIS LEADS TO A TRANSITION (WRT P-TYPE) LT WED/THU. RA...BECOMES
MIXED W/ IP-CHANGING TO SN/IP THEN ENDING AS SN FM NNW TO SE ACRS
THE FA (LASTLY ACRS NE NC BY MID OR LT AFTN THU). TIMING THOSE
TRANSITIONS AT THIS POINT VERY DIFFICULT...THOUGH CURRENTLY EXPECT
A LEAST LGT SN ACCUMS FOR AREAS N OF THE NC/VA BORDER BEFORE THE
DAY ENDS THU (T-2 INCHES S...1-4 INCHES N (HIGHEST PTNTTLY FM
RIC-SBY)). ALONG W/ THE TRANSITION TO WINTRY PCPN...GUSTY NNE WNDS
WILL BE PUSHING COLDER AIR INTO THE RGN. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM ARND
30F N TO THE L40S FAR S. TEMPS THU STEADY OR FALLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED IN WAKE OF THURS COLD FRONT...BUT
MODERATING TEMPS THRU THE WEEKEND WILL BRING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE THURS NIGHT WITH THE NRN PORTION OF THE
FRONT PUSHING WELL OFFSHORE. SRN PORTION PUSHES SWD OVER THE GULF
STATES/NRN GULF...STALLING IN WLY FLOW ALOFT. ENDED CHANCE POPS NEAR
THE COAST AT MIDNIGHT...WITH DRYING/CLEARING CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.
1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FRI...RESULTING
IN ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. H85
TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND -12C (-2 STD DEV)...WITH THICKNESSES
YIELDING TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI
NIGHT WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING MODERATE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.
TEMPS FORECAST IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS FRI NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. THEREAFTER...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE THANKS
TO DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW OVER THE WRN CONUS. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
AGAIN BE CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC FLOW (TROUGHING) OVER THE ERN
CONUS AND RIDGING (RETURN TO A +PNA) OVER THE WRN CONUS. MODELS
STRUGGLING WITH A NUMBER OF CANADIAN IMPULSES SET TO IMPACT THE NE
STATES...BUT ALSO SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE BAJA THIS WEEKEND.
ECMWF RATHER ROBUST WITH THIS ENERGY...TRANSLATING ACROSS NRN MEXICO
AND THE SRN PLAINS SAT NIGHT-SUN...POSSIBLY PHASING WITH NRN STREAM
ENERGY OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS SOLUTION WOULD LIFT THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF NWD LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
RAIN TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS SHEARS THE
ENERGY...KEEPING IT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...KEEPING THE LOCAL
AREA DRY. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD A WPC/ENSEMBLE APPROACH WHICH
KEEPS THE SRN STREAM WAVE FLAT AND THE LOCAL AREA DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND..WITH MODERATING TEMPS. HIGHS SAT FORECAST IN THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-MID 40S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS SUN IN THE
MID 50S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 40S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION IS MAINLY CLEAR OF LOWERED CIGS EARLY THIS
AFTN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KECG....WHICH IS QUICKLY SEEING
IMPROVEMENTS THIS HOUR (OR 02/1800Z). HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THE HIGH SLIDES OVERHEAD EARLY
TUE MORNING AND THEN OFFSHORE BY TUE AFTN. MORE PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE TUE AFTN/NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO AND ACROSS THE
AREA. EXPECT A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN DETERIORATED CONDITIONS EARLY
WED...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WED
AFTN/EVENING. PRECIPITATION BEGINS AS ALL RAIN ON WED...AND IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A SNOW/SLEET MIX AND THEN TO PRIMARILY
SNOW FROM NW TO SE THU AFTN/EVENING. PERIODS OF IFR CIGS/VIS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE AREA FRI THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH LITTLE
TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 1PM...CAA BEHIND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN RATHER
LIMITED AS TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE 40S COASTAL AREAS. WINDS A
FEW THOUSAND FT OFF THE WATER HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND
30-35KT...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR THE COLD WATER HAVE
PREVENTED THE HIGHER VELOCITY WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN. AS A
RESULT...THE SCA HEADLINES FOR THE BAY HAVE BEEN DROPPED. WILL RE-
EVALUATE THE COASTAL WATERS AS 5 FT SEAS MAY BE DIFFICULT TO REACH
GIVEN NW GUSTS AROUND 25 KT...OUTSIDE OF THE SRN COASTAL ZONES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SW WINDS 10-15KT WILL BECOME WEST THEN
NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT ON THE
BAY/OCEAN JUST BEHIND THE FRONT (HIGHEST NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS)...AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT SCA HEADLINES. WINDS
15 KT OR LESS ON THE RIVERS AND SOUND. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO LOWER ALMOST ALL
SCA`S BY 7PM. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR THE COASTAL ZONES
SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER WHERE 5FT SEAS WILL HOLD ON INTO THE
EVENING AS WINDS TURN TO THE N-NE.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE-E WINDS EXPECTED. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME S-SW AND
INCREASE TO SCA SPEEDS TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED AFTN BEFORE
DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT AND WAVES
BUILD TO 3-4 FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. A BRIEF LULL IN WIND SPEEDS
IS EXPECTED WED NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE REGION
AND TURNS WINDS OUT OF THE N-NW. ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...ALB/MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...BMD/JDM
MARINE...SAM





























000
FXUS61 KLWX 022033
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
333 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE THEN WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A WARM
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY COLD
HIGH PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF QUICKLY AND BOTTOM OUT IN THE
LOWER 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT TEENS OVER THE NORMALLY COLDER
AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FIRST OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES OF
THE ALLEGHENY FRONT THEN SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA MID TO LATE MORNING.

PROFILES INDICATE THERE IS ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR PRECIPITATION TO
START AS A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND SLEET BUT A FAIRLY QUICK TRANSITION
TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED BY MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. CAD SITUATION EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN
WITH COLD HIGH TO THE NORTH AND EAST HELPING TO TRAP COLDER AIR IN
THE LOWER LEVELS. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BECOME
THE MAIN P-TYPE BY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO ONE TENTH OF
AN INCH OF ICE ACCRETION EXPECTED. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SOME SLIPPERY TRAVEL TO DEVELOP FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING COMMUTE. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED TO COVER
THIS THREAT.

WARMER AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER IN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. RAIN
WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN WILL LIKELY HOLD ON LONGER FOR THE FAR NORTH AND WEST
SUBURBS OF BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON DC INTO THE EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

COLD AIR MAY BE LINGERING INTO THE ELY EVNG N OF THE PTMC RIVER
TUE EVNG...OTRW WAA WL MAKE ITS WAY TO THE SFC. SHUD HV WARMING
TEMPS THRUT THE NGT. THEREFORE...WL BE RUNNING W/ A PTYPE OF RA...
W/ JUST A LITTLE LINGERING FZRA TO THE N.

THE MAIN PTYPE ISSUE FOR OVNGT TUE INTO WED WL BE RA. A SOLID
PLUME OF MSTR WL BE CHANNELED EWD FM THE WRN GLFMEX AHD OF AN
APPROACHING CDFNT. AM GOING W/ QPF ARND A HALF INCH...CLOSER TO
AN INCH FOR THE MTNS. MORE ON THIS IN THE HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

CFP WL COME LT IN THE DAY. WE WL BE STARTING FM A BASE IN THE UPR
40S NORTH TO UPR 50S SOUTH /BLENDED NEWER GDNC INTO THE ENSEMBLE
MAXT FCST/ SO EVEN AFTER FROPA...PCPN WL STILL BE RAIN. PROBLEM
IS...SFC TEMPS WL KEEP DROPPING THRU THE AFTN-EVNG WHILE THE PLUME
OF MSTR CONTS TO STREAM EWD ABV IT. THAT WUD SUPPORT PCPN CHGG
OVER TO SNW /OR PERHAPS SLEET/ WED NGT. QSTNS REVOLVE ARND THE
TIMING OF THAT TRANSITION ALONG W/ HOW MUCH MSTR WL BE AVBL AT
THAT TIME. AN UPR JET WL BE SUPPORTIVE OF PCPN GENERATION...AS WE
WL BE IN THE RRQ. AT THIS TIME...IT SEEMS APPARENT THAT THERE WL
BE MEASUREABLE SNOW WED NGT INTO THU MRNG. IT CUD BE MORE THAN
JUST A LTL. HV THIS IN THE HWO ATTM. REFER TO OUR PROBABLISTIC
DATA VIA OUR WEBSITE FOR THE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES.

HV SNOW TAPERING OFF DURING THE DAY ON THU. DOUBT THERE WL BE MUCH
OF A TEMP RISE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

AFTER A FEW BUSY WX DAYS...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS WITH CLEARING SKIES...LEADING
TO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS SNOW COVER FROM THE THURSDAY
SYSTEM. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR FREEZING FRIDAY DESPITE
THE RETURN OF WAA. AFTER ANOTHER COLD NIGHT FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO REBOUND SATURDAY AND EVEN MORE SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THEY WILL
REMAIN IN THE MID/UPPER 40S...WHICH IS BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

AT THIS POINT LEFT WEEKEND PRECIP FREE. BUT...RECENT MODEL RUNS
APPEAR TO HAVE A SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE DEEP SOUTH AND PERHAPS
BEGINNING TO IMPACT OUR AREA ON SUNDAY. WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY BEFORE INTRODUCING POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE
IN FROM WEST TO EAST BY MID TO LATE MORNING. HAVE INTRODUCED LIGHT
SNOW/SLEET MIXTURE AT MOST TERMINALS AROUND MIDDAY BUT EXPECT
FREEZING RAIN TO BECOME THE MAIN P-TYPE BY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE PRECIPITATION MAY CHANGE TO ALL RAIN CENTRAL AND SOUTH WITH
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE HOLDING ON LONGER NEAR KBWI.

MVFR TO IFR FLGT CONDS SHUD BE WIDESPREAD TUE NGT THRU THU. MAINLY
RA TUE NGT AND WED. SNOW SHUD BE THE PRIMARY PTYPE WED NGT INTO
THU. DEPENDING UPON TIMING...LIFR PSBL.

AT THIS POINT NOT EXPECTING ANY AVIATION CONCERNS FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&

.MARINE...

SOLID SCA CONDITIONS OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH BY
SUNSET. ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP TUESDAY
NIGHT. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED IN FROZEN PRECIPITATION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT BEFORE WINDS SUBSIDE. AFTER THIS NOT
EXPECTING MARINE CONCERNS THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING THE POTENTIAL OF MIDWEEK FLOODING IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. LIQUID PRECIP FCST FROM WPC PUTS MUCH OF
THE FCST AREA IN A MINIMA FOR AMOUNTS...AROUND AN INCH OR LESS IN
MANY AREAS. WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 50S ON
WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME...POSSIBLY A LOT OF...MELTING OF THE
EXISTING SNOWPACK...WHICH COMPUTER MODELS AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
CONTAINS ANYWHERE FROM 3/4 INCH TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENT. THIS COMBINATION MAY LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING AS THE RAIN
FALLS ON WEDNESDAY.

ALTHOUGH RIVER ICE IS NOT ESPECIALLY THICK...IT WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL ROLE IN AFFECTING RUNOFF. ALSO...PLOWED SNOW
IS LIKELY COVERING SOME OF THE DRAINS OUT THERE...WHICH COULD CAUSE
MORE POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING THAN WOULD OTHERWISE USUALLY BE
EXPECTED.

WORTH NOTING...CURRENT FORECAST RAIN TOTALS ARE ON THE LOWER SIDE OF
THE ENSEMBLE SUITES OF THE GEFS AND SREF. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE FORECAST FOR UPDATES AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER.&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     DCZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     MDZ501-502.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     MDZ003.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     MDZ016>018.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     MDZ004>006-011-013-014-503>508.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     VAZ025>031-503-504-507-508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     VAZ036>040-050>052-055>057-501-502.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     VAZ053-054-505-506.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     WVZ050-055-501>506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     WVZ051>053.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...KRW/HTS/MSE
MARINE...KRW/HTS/MSE
HYDROLOGY...JE



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021814
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
114 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FG GONE NOW...AND DRYING WILL CONT THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
XPCG A TEMP SPIKE NEXT FEW HRS BEFORE CAA REALLY TAKES HOLD. POPS
TO BE BLO 14%...AND HI TEMPS FM THE L/M40S ON THE ERN SHORE TO
ARND 50F (WELL) INLAND IN CNTRL/SOUTH CENTRAL VA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1035MB HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA TONITE. XPCT M CLR TO PT
CLDY SKIES TO START OFF THE EVENING. TSCTNS SHOW MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE FA AFTR MIDNITE. SKIES STAY CLR LONG
ENOUGH FOR TMPS TO DROP BELOW FREEZING. LOWS FROM THE L-M20S ERN
SHORE...M-U20S W OF THE BAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE MOISTURE FROM THE NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG
FROM THE W. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WSW WITH A NE INSITU-WEDGE
SETTING UP AT THE SFC AS ANY WRM FRNT SNAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE MTS.
DATA INDICATES PCPN DELAYED UNTIL AFTR 15Z WITH PCPN OVERSPREADING
THE PIEDMONT (MAINLY W OF I95 CORRIDOR) BTWN 15-18Z. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES ALONG WITH SFC TMPS SUGGEST THAT SOME FREEZING RAIN IS
PSBL AT THE ONSET IN AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF RIC...TRANSITIONING TO
PLAIN RAIN DURING THE AFTN. BEST VV`S/OMEGA REMAIN ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF FA TUE AFTN WHERE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE. GIVEN ANTHR WEDGE
EVENT...WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED THE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BUT KEPT
THEM ABOVE FREEZING. HIGHS FROM THE M-U30S NRN HALF OF FA...U30S-
L40S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

WARM FRONT PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. BEST
MOISTURE (THUS HIGHEST POPS) SEEN IN THE EVENING AND ACROSS THE
NORTH...WITH CHC POPS ALL AREAS AFTR MIDNIGHT. MINS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AT 00Z WITH RISING TMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. TMPS BY 12Z WED
RISE INTO THE M40S-L50S.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRNG SSW FLOW.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE SEEN TO CONT PCPN CHCS. WENT AHEAD AND CHANGED
THE PCPN TYPE TO MORE CONVECTIVE RATHER THAN STRATIFORMED. NO
THUNDER EXPECTED AS DATA SHOWS MOST INSTABILITY REMAINING OFFSHORE
INVOF GULF STREAM. ALMOST A SPRING FEEL TO THE DAY AS TMPS FINALLY
RISE ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE U-U50S ERN SHORE...60S MOST AREAS
W OF THE BAY (70 PSBL ACROSS NE NC).

MODELS CONTINUE TO OFFER UP DIFFERENT TIMING SOLUTIONS IN REGARDS
TO THE NEXT ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THE TIMING WILL LIKELY DETERMINE HOW
FAST THE COLDER AIR SWEEPS ACROSS THE FA CHANGING ANY RAIN TO SNOW
AS YET ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO MOVE NE ALONG THE
BNDRY. FOR NOW...FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLN SO I SLOWED THE FROPA DOWN
SEVERAL MORE HRS (TO A PSN ACROSS AKQ`S NRN MOST CNTYS AT 12Z THU).
THIS CHANGE REQUIRES SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO WED NITES TMPS / WX. THE
WARMER SOLN SUGGESTS PCPN REMAINS MAINLY LIQUID THROUGH 12Z THURS.
LOWS IN THE L-M30S NRN MOST CNTYS...U30S-M40S SOUTH. STRNG CAA
ALONG WITH CRASHING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES RESULTS IN RAIN CHANGING
TO SNOW N-S THURSDAY ALONG WITH FALLING TMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THU/THU NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TRICKY FORECAST FOR
THU AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT PRECIP THROUGH THU AND THEN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
THU EVENING. A DECENT JET STREAK OF 150-170KT WILL ALSO ENHANCE
LIFTING POTENTIAL AND AID PRECIP-GENERATION. HIGHS ON THU EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 30S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING BELOW FREEZING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY.
THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPS...FALLING DEWPOINTS AND A COLD
AIRMASS RUNNING INTO REMNANTS OF WARMER AIR SE SHOULD RESULT IN
PRECIP BECOMING TO ALL SNOW FROM NW TO SE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...
WITH A CONTINUATION OF A SNOW/SLEET TRANSITION ZONE AND ALL RAIN
SE OF THIS CHANGE. QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN RATHER HIGH AND SUSPECT THE
ACTUAL AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LESS...WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. SKIES START TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS MOST AREAS AND IN THE
LOW-MID 20S FAR SE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRI. COOL AND
STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP AREAWIDE HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE 30S.
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO FLATTEN FRI NIGHT AND WLY FLOW ALOFT
BEGINS TO MODIFY 850 TEMPS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS
REBOUND INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S SAT AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 50S
SUN. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 AND SUN NIGHT IN
THE LOW-MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION IS MAINLY CLEAR OF LOWERED CIGS EARLY THIS
AFTN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KECG....WHICH IS QUICKLY SEEING
IMPROVEMENTS THIS HOUR (OR 02/1800Z). HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THE HIGH SLIDES OVERHEAD EARLY
TUE MORNING AND THEN OFFSHORE BY TUE AFTN. MORE PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE TUE AFTN/NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO AND ACROSS THE
AREA. EXPECT A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN DETERIORATED CONDITIONS EARLY
WED...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WED
AFTN/EVENING. PRECIPITATION BEGINS AS ALL RAIN ON WED...AND IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A SNOW/SLEET MIX AND THEN TO PRIMARILY
SNOW FROM NW TO SE THU AFTN/EVENING. PERIODS OF IFR CIGS/VIS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE AREA FRI THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH LITTLE
TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 1PM...CAA BEHIND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN RATHER
LIMITED AS TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE 40S COASTAL AREAS. WINDS A
FEW THOUSAND FT OFF THE WATER HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND
30-35KT...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR THE COLD WATER HAVE
PREVENTED THE HIGHER VELOCITY WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN. AS A
RESULT...THE SCA HEADLINES FOR THE BAY HAVE BEEN DROPPED. WILL RE-
EVALUATE THE COASTAL WATERS AS 5 FT SEAS MAY BE DIFFICULT TO REACH
GIVEN NW GUSTS AROUND 25 KT...OUTSIDE OF THE SRN COASTAL ZONES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SW WINDS 10-15KT WILL BECOME WEST THEN
NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT ON THE
BAY/OCEAN JUST BEHIND THE FRONT (HIGHEST NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS)...AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT SCA HEADLINES. WINDS
15 KT OR LESS ON THE RIVERS AND SOUND. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO LOWER ALMOST ALL
SCA`S BY 7PM. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR THE COASTAL ZONES
SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER WHERE 5FT SEAS WILL HOLD ON INTO THE
EVENING AS WINDS TURN TO THE N-NE.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE-E WINDS EXPECTED. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME S-SW AND
INCREASE TO SCA SPEEDS TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED AFTN BEFORE
DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT AND WAVES
BUILD TO 3-4 FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. A BRIEF LULL IN WIND SPEEDS
IS EXPECTED WED NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE REGION
AND TURNS WINDS OUT OF THE N-NW. ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD/SNOWY END TO FEBRUARY 2015...RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND
NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE 1800S...AND TO 1906 AT SALISBURY
MD. SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE FOR
FEBRUARY ARE NOTED BELOW:

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

RICHMOND: 31.4 F (-9.5 FROM AVG). 6TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND
THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.5 F (-10.1 FROM AVG). 3RD COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1934.

SALISBURY: 28.7 F (-9.0 FROM AVG). 4TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1979.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...BMD/MPR
AVIATION...BMD/JDM
MARINE...BMD/JDM
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021814
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
114 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FG GONE NOW...AND DRYING WILL CONT THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
XPCG A TEMP SPIKE NEXT FEW HRS BEFORE CAA REALLY TAKES HOLD. POPS
TO BE BLO 14%...AND HI TEMPS FM THE L/M40S ON THE ERN SHORE TO
ARND 50F (WELL) INLAND IN CNTRL/SOUTH CENTRAL VA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1035MB HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA TONITE. XPCT M CLR TO PT
CLDY SKIES TO START OFF THE EVENING. TSCTNS SHOW MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE FA AFTR MIDNITE. SKIES STAY CLR LONG
ENOUGH FOR TMPS TO DROP BELOW FREEZING. LOWS FROM THE L-M20S ERN
SHORE...M-U20S W OF THE BAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE MOISTURE FROM THE NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG
FROM THE W. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WSW WITH A NE INSITU-WEDGE
SETTING UP AT THE SFC AS ANY WRM FRNT SNAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE MTS.
DATA INDICATES PCPN DELAYED UNTIL AFTR 15Z WITH PCPN OVERSPREADING
THE PIEDMONT (MAINLY W OF I95 CORRIDOR) BTWN 15-18Z. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES ALONG WITH SFC TMPS SUGGEST THAT SOME FREEZING RAIN IS
PSBL AT THE ONSET IN AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF RIC...TRANSITIONING TO
PLAIN RAIN DURING THE AFTN. BEST VV`S/OMEGA REMAIN ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF FA TUE AFTN WHERE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE. GIVEN ANTHR WEDGE
EVENT...WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED THE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BUT KEPT
THEM ABOVE FREEZING. HIGHS FROM THE M-U30S NRN HALF OF FA...U30S-
L40S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

WARM FRONT PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. BEST
MOISTURE (THUS HIGHEST POPS) SEEN IN THE EVENING AND ACROSS THE
NORTH...WITH CHC POPS ALL AREAS AFTR MIDNIGHT. MINS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AT 00Z WITH RISING TMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. TMPS BY 12Z WED
RISE INTO THE M40S-L50S.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRNG SSW FLOW.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE SEEN TO CONT PCPN CHCS. WENT AHEAD AND CHANGED
THE PCPN TYPE TO MORE CONVECTIVE RATHER THAN STRATIFORMED. NO
THUNDER EXPECTED AS DATA SHOWS MOST INSTABILITY REMAINING OFFSHORE
INVOF GULF STREAM. ALMOST A SPRING FEEL TO THE DAY AS TMPS FINALLY
RISE ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE U-U50S ERN SHORE...60S MOST AREAS
W OF THE BAY (70 PSBL ACROSS NE NC).

MODELS CONTINUE TO OFFER UP DIFFERENT TIMING SOLUTIONS IN REGARDS
TO THE NEXT ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THE TIMING WILL LIKELY DETERMINE HOW
FAST THE COLDER AIR SWEEPS ACROSS THE FA CHANGING ANY RAIN TO SNOW
AS YET ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO MOVE NE ALONG THE
BNDRY. FOR NOW...FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLN SO I SLOWED THE FROPA DOWN
SEVERAL MORE HRS (TO A PSN ACROSS AKQ`S NRN MOST CNTYS AT 12Z THU).
THIS CHANGE REQUIRES SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO WED NITES TMPS / WX. THE
WARMER SOLN SUGGESTS PCPN REMAINS MAINLY LIQUID THROUGH 12Z THURS.
LOWS IN THE L-M30S NRN MOST CNTYS...U30S-M40S SOUTH. STRNG CAA
ALONG WITH CRASHING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES RESULTS IN RAIN CHANGING
TO SNOW N-S THURSDAY ALONG WITH FALLING TMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THU/THU NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TRICKY FORECAST FOR
THU AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT PRECIP THROUGH THU AND THEN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
THU EVENING. A DECENT JET STREAK OF 150-170KT WILL ALSO ENHANCE
LIFTING POTENTIAL AND AID PRECIP-GENERATION. HIGHS ON THU EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 30S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING BELOW FREEZING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY.
THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPS...FALLING DEWPOINTS AND A COLD
AIRMASS RUNNING INTO REMNANTS OF WARMER AIR SE SHOULD RESULT IN
PRECIP BECOMING TO ALL SNOW FROM NW TO SE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...
WITH A CONTINUATION OF A SNOW/SLEET TRANSITION ZONE AND ALL RAIN
SE OF THIS CHANGE. QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN RATHER HIGH AND SUSPECT THE
ACTUAL AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LESS...WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. SKIES START TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS MOST AREAS AND IN THE
LOW-MID 20S FAR SE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRI. COOL AND
STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP AREAWIDE HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE 30S.
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO FLATTEN FRI NIGHT AND WLY FLOW ALOFT
BEGINS TO MODIFY 850 TEMPS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS
REBOUND INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S SAT AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 50S
SUN. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 AND SUN NIGHT IN
THE LOW-MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION IS MAINLY CLEAR OF LOWERED CIGS EARLY THIS
AFTN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KECG....WHICH IS QUICKLY SEEING
IMPROVEMENTS THIS HOUR (OR 02/1800Z). HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THE HIGH SLIDES OVERHEAD EARLY
TUE MORNING AND THEN OFFSHORE BY TUE AFTN. MORE PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE TUE AFTN/NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO AND ACROSS THE
AREA. EXPECT A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN DETERIORATED CONDITIONS EARLY
WED...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WED
AFTN/EVENING. PRECIPITATION BEGINS AS ALL RAIN ON WED...AND IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A SNOW/SLEET MIX AND THEN TO PRIMARILY
SNOW FROM NW TO SE THU AFTN/EVENING. PERIODS OF IFR CIGS/VIS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE AREA FRI THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH LITTLE
TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 1PM...CAA BEHIND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN RATHER
LIMITED AS TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE 40S COASTAL AREAS. WINDS A
FEW THOUSAND FT OFF THE WATER HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND
30-35KT...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR THE COLD WATER HAVE
PREVENTED THE HIGHER VELOCITY WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN. AS A
RESULT...THE SCA HEADLINES FOR THE BAY HAVE BEEN DROPPED. WILL RE-
EVALUATE THE COASTAL WATERS AS 5 FT SEAS MAY BE DIFFICULT TO REACH
GIVEN NW GUSTS AROUND 25 KT...OUTSIDE OF THE SRN COASTAL ZONES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SW WINDS 10-15KT WILL BECOME WEST THEN
NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT ON THE
BAY/OCEAN JUST BEHIND THE FRONT (HIGHEST NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS)...AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT SCA HEADLINES. WINDS
15 KT OR LESS ON THE RIVERS AND SOUND. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO LOWER ALMOST ALL
SCA`S BY 7PM. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR THE COASTAL ZONES
SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER WHERE 5FT SEAS WILL HOLD ON INTO THE
EVENING AS WINDS TURN TO THE N-NE.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE-E WINDS EXPECTED. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME S-SW AND
INCREASE TO SCA SPEEDS TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED AFTN BEFORE
DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT AND WAVES
BUILD TO 3-4 FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. A BRIEF LULL IN WIND SPEEDS
IS EXPECTED WED NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE REGION
AND TURNS WINDS OUT OF THE N-NW. ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD/SNOWY END TO FEBRUARY 2015...RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND
NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE 1800S...AND TO 1906 AT SALISBURY
MD. SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE FOR
FEBRUARY ARE NOTED BELOW:

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

RICHMOND: 31.4 F (-9.5 FROM AVG). 6TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND
THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.5 F (-10.1 FROM AVG). 3RD COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1934.

SALISBURY: 28.7 F (-9.0 FROM AVG). 4TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1979.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...BMD/MPR
AVIATION...BMD/JDM
MARINE...BMD/JDM
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021814
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
114 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FG GONE NOW...AND DRYING WILL CONT THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
XPCG A TEMP SPIKE NEXT FEW HRS BEFORE CAA REALLY TAKES HOLD. POPS
TO BE BLO 14%...AND HI TEMPS FM THE L/M40S ON THE ERN SHORE TO
ARND 50F (WELL) INLAND IN CNTRL/SOUTH CENTRAL VA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1035MB HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA TONITE. XPCT M CLR TO PT
CLDY SKIES TO START OFF THE EVENING. TSCTNS SHOW MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE FA AFTR MIDNITE. SKIES STAY CLR LONG
ENOUGH FOR TMPS TO DROP BELOW FREEZING. LOWS FROM THE L-M20S ERN
SHORE...M-U20S W OF THE BAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE MOISTURE FROM THE NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG
FROM THE W. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WSW WITH A NE INSITU-WEDGE
SETTING UP AT THE SFC AS ANY WRM FRNT SNAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE MTS.
DATA INDICATES PCPN DELAYED UNTIL AFTR 15Z WITH PCPN OVERSPREADING
THE PIEDMONT (MAINLY W OF I95 CORRIDOR) BTWN 15-18Z. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES ALONG WITH SFC TMPS SUGGEST THAT SOME FREEZING RAIN IS
PSBL AT THE ONSET IN AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF RIC...TRANSITIONING TO
PLAIN RAIN DURING THE AFTN. BEST VV`S/OMEGA REMAIN ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF FA TUE AFTN WHERE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE. GIVEN ANTHR WEDGE
EVENT...WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED THE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BUT KEPT
THEM ABOVE FREEZING. HIGHS FROM THE M-U30S NRN HALF OF FA...U30S-
L40S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

WARM FRONT PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. BEST
MOISTURE (THUS HIGHEST POPS) SEEN IN THE EVENING AND ACROSS THE
NORTH...WITH CHC POPS ALL AREAS AFTR MIDNIGHT. MINS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AT 00Z WITH RISING TMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. TMPS BY 12Z WED
RISE INTO THE M40S-L50S.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRNG SSW FLOW.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE SEEN TO CONT PCPN CHCS. WENT AHEAD AND CHANGED
THE PCPN TYPE TO MORE CONVECTIVE RATHER THAN STRATIFORMED. NO
THUNDER EXPECTED AS DATA SHOWS MOST INSTABILITY REMAINING OFFSHORE
INVOF GULF STREAM. ALMOST A SPRING FEEL TO THE DAY AS TMPS FINALLY
RISE ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE U-U50S ERN SHORE...60S MOST AREAS
W OF THE BAY (70 PSBL ACROSS NE NC).

MODELS CONTINUE TO OFFER UP DIFFERENT TIMING SOLUTIONS IN REGARDS
TO THE NEXT ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THE TIMING WILL LIKELY DETERMINE HOW
FAST THE COLDER AIR SWEEPS ACROSS THE FA CHANGING ANY RAIN TO SNOW
AS YET ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO MOVE NE ALONG THE
BNDRY. FOR NOW...FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLN SO I SLOWED THE FROPA DOWN
SEVERAL MORE HRS (TO A PSN ACROSS AKQ`S NRN MOST CNTYS AT 12Z THU).
THIS CHANGE REQUIRES SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO WED NITES TMPS / WX. THE
WARMER SOLN SUGGESTS PCPN REMAINS MAINLY LIQUID THROUGH 12Z THURS.
LOWS IN THE L-M30S NRN MOST CNTYS...U30S-M40S SOUTH. STRNG CAA
ALONG WITH CRASHING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES RESULTS IN RAIN CHANGING
TO SNOW N-S THURSDAY ALONG WITH FALLING TMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THU/THU NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TRICKY FORECAST FOR
THU AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT PRECIP THROUGH THU AND THEN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
THU EVENING. A DECENT JET STREAK OF 150-170KT WILL ALSO ENHANCE
LIFTING POTENTIAL AND AID PRECIP-GENERATION. HIGHS ON THU EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 30S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING BELOW FREEZING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY.
THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPS...FALLING DEWPOINTS AND A COLD
AIRMASS RUNNING INTO REMNANTS OF WARMER AIR SE SHOULD RESULT IN
PRECIP BECOMING TO ALL SNOW FROM NW TO SE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...
WITH A CONTINUATION OF A SNOW/SLEET TRANSITION ZONE AND ALL RAIN
SE OF THIS CHANGE. QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN RATHER HIGH AND SUSPECT THE
ACTUAL AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LESS...WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. SKIES START TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS MOST AREAS AND IN THE
LOW-MID 20S FAR SE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRI. COOL AND
STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP AREAWIDE HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE 30S.
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO FLATTEN FRI NIGHT AND WLY FLOW ALOFT
BEGINS TO MODIFY 850 TEMPS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS
REBOUND INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S SAT AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 50S
SUN. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 AND SUN NIGHT IN
THE LOW-MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION IS MAINLY CLEAR OF LOWERED CIGS EARLY THIS
AFTN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KECG....WHICH IS QUICKLY SEEING
IMPROVEMENTS THIS HOUR (OR 02/1800Z). HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THE HIGH SLIDES OVERHEAD EARLY
TUE MORNING AND THEN OFFSHORE BY TUE AFTN. MORE PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE TUE AFTN/NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO AND ACROSS THE
AREA. EXPECT A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN DETERIORATED CONDITIONS EARLY
WED...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WED
AFTN/EVENING. PRECIPITATION BEGINS AS ALL RAIN ON WED...AND IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A SNOW/SLEET MIX AND THEN TO PRIMARILY
SNOW FROM NW TO SE THU AFTN/EVENING. PERIODS OF IFR CIGS/VIS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE AREA FRI THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH LITTLE
TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 1PM...CAA BEHIND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN RATHER
LIMITED AS TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE 40S COASTAL AREAS. WINDS A
FEW THOUSAND FT OFF THE WATER HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND
30-35KT...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR THE COLD WATER HAVE
PREVENTED THE HIGHER VELOCITY WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN. AS A
RESULT...THE SCA HEADLINES FOR THE BAY HAVE BEEN DROPPED. WILL RE-
EVALUATE THE COASTAL WATERS AS 5 FT SEAS MAY BE DIFFICULT TO REACH
GIVEN NW GUSTS AROUND 25 KT...OUTSIDE OF THE SRN COASTAL ZONES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SW WINDS 10-15KT WILL BECOME WEST THEN
NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT ON THE
BAY/OCEAN JUST BEHIND THE FRONT (HIGHEST NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS)...AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT SCA HEADLINES. WINDS
15 KT OR LESS ON THE RIVERS AND SOUND. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO LOWER ALMOST ALL
SCA`S BY 7PM. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR THE COASTAL ZONES
SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER WHERE 5FT SEAS WILL HOLD ON INTO THE
EVENING AS WINDS TURN TO THE N-NE.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE-E WINDS EXPECTED. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME S-SW AND
INCREASE TO SCA SPEEDS TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED AFTN BEFORE
DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT AND WAVES
BUILD TO 3-4 FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. A BRIEF LULL IN WIND SPEEDS
IS EXPECTED WED NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE REGION
AND TURNS WINDS OUT OF THE N-NW. ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD/SNOWY END TO FEBRUARY 2015...RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND
NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE 1800S...AND TO 1906 AT SALISBURY
MD. SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE FOR
FEBRUARY ARE NOTED BELOW:

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

RICHMOND: 31.4 F (-9.5 FROM AVG). 6TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND
THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.5 F (-10.1 FROM AVG). 3RD COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1934.

SALISBURY: 28.7 F (-9.0 FROM AVG). 4TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1979.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...BMD/MPR
AVIATION...BMD/JDM
MARINE...BMD/JDM
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021739
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1239 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FG GONE NOW...AND DRYING WILL CONT THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
XPCG A TEMP SPIKE NEXT FEW HRS BEFORE CAA REALLY TAKES HOLD. POPS
TO BE BLO 14%...AND HI TEMPS FM THE L/M40S ON THE ERN SHORE TO
ARND 50F (WELL) INLAND IN CNTRL/SOUTH CENTRAL VA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1035MB HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA TONITE. XPCT M CLR TO PT
CLDY SKIES TO START OFF THE EVENING. TSCTNS SHOW MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE FA AFTR MIDNITE. SKIES STAY CLR LONG
ENOUGH FOR TMPS TO DROP BELOW FREEZING. LOWS FROM THE L-M20S ERN
SHORE...M-U20S W OF THE BAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE MOISTURE FROM THE NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG
FROM THE W. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WSW WITH A NE INSITU-WEDGE
SETTING UP AT THE SFC AS ANY WRM FRNT SNAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE MTS.
DATA INDICATES PCPN DELAYED UNTIL AFTR 15Z WITH PCPN OVERSPREADING
THE PIEDMONT (MAINLY W OF I95 CORRIDOR) BTWN 15-18Z. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES ALONG WITH SFC TMPS SUGGEST THAT SOME FREEZING RAIN IS
PSBL AT THE ONSET IN AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF RIC...TRANSITIONING TO
PLAIN RAIN DURING THE AFTN. BEST VV`S/OMEGA REMAIN ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF FA TUE AFTN WHERE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE. GIVEN ANTHR WEDGE
EVENT...WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED THE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BUT KEPT
THEM ABOVE FREEZING. HIGHS FROM THE M-U30S NRN HALF OF FA...U30S-
L40S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

WARM FRONT PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. BEST
MOISTURE (THUS HIGHEST POPS) SEEN IN THE EVENING AND ACROSS THE
NORTH...WITH CHC POPS ALL AREAS AFTR MIDNIGHT. MINS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AT 00Z WITH RISING TMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. TMPS BY 12Z WED
RISE INTO THE M40S-L50S.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRNG SSW FLOW.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE SEEN TO CONT PCPN CHCS. WENT AHEAD AND CHANGED
THE PCPN TYPE TO MORE CONVECTIVE RATHER THAN STRATIFORMED. NO
THUNDER EXPECTED AS DATA SHOWS MOST INSTABILITY REMAINING OFFSHORE
INVOF GULF STREAM. ALMOST A SPRING FEEL TO THE DAY AS TMPS FINALLY
RISE ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE U-U50S ERN SHORE...60S MOST AREAS
W OF THE BAY (70 PSBL ACROSS NE NC).

MODELS CONTINUE TO OFFER UP DIFFERENT TIMING SOLUTIONS IN REGARDS
TO THE NEXT ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THE TIMING WILL LIKELY DETERMINE HOW
FAST THE COLDER AIR SWEEPS ACROSS THE FA CHANGING ANY RAIN TO SNOW
AS YET ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO MOVE NE ALONG THE
BNDRY. FOR NOW...FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLN SO I SLOWED THE FROPA DOWN
SEVERAL MORE HRS (TO A PSN ACROSS AKQ`S NRN MOST CNTYS AT 12Z THU).
THIS CHANGE REQUIRES SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO WED NITES TMPS / WX. THE
WARMER SOLN SUGGESTS PCPN REMAINS MAINLY LIQUID THROUGH 12Z THURS.
LOWS IN THE L-M30S NRN MOST CNTYS...U30S-M40S SOUTH. STRNG CAA
ALONG WITH CRASHING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES RESULTS IN RAIN CHANGING
TO SNOW N-S THURSDAY ALONG WITH FALLING TMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THU/THU NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TRICKY FORECAST FOR
THU AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT PRECIP THROUGH THU AND THEN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
THU EVENING. A DECENT JET STREAK OF 150-170KT WILL ALSO ENHANCE
LIFTING POTENTIAL AND AID PRECIP-GENERATION. HIGHS ON THU EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 30S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING BELOW FREEZING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY.
THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPS...FALLING DEWPOINTS AND A COLD
AIRMASS RUNNING INTO REMNANTS OF WARMER AIR SE SHOULD RESULT IN
PRECIP BECOMING TO ALL SNOW FROM NW TO SE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...
WITH A CONTINUATION OF A SNOW/SLEET TRANSITION ZONE AND ALL RAIN
SE OF THIS CHANGE. QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN RATHER HIGH AND SUSPECT THE
ACTUAL AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LESS...WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. SKIES START TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS MOST AREAS AND IN THE
LOW-MID 20S FAR SE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRI. COOL AND
STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP AREAWIDE HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE 30S.
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO FLATTEN FRI NIGHT AND WLY FLOW ALOFT
BEGINS TO MODIFY 850 TEMPS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS
REBOUND INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S SAT AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 50S
SUN. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 AND SUN NIGHT IN
THE LOW-MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION IS MAINLY CLEAR OF LOWERED CIGS EARLY THIS
AFTN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KECG....WHICH IS QUICKLY SEEING
IMPROVEMENTS THIS HOUR (OR 02/1800Z). HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THE HIGH SLIDES OVERHEAD EARLY
TUE MORNING AND THEN OFFSHORE BY TUE AFTN. MORE PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE TUE AFTN/NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO AND ACROSS THE
AREA. EXPECT A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN DETERIORATED CONDITIONS EARLY
WED...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WED
AFTN/EVENING. PRECIPITATION BEGINS AS ALL RAIN ON WED...AND IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A SNOW/SLEET MIX AND THEN TO PRIMARILY
SNOW FROM NW TO SE THU AFTN/EVENING. PERIODS OF IFR CIGS/VIS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE AREA FRI THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH LITTLE
TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...DENSE FOG ADVISORIES HAVE EXPIRED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SW WINDS 10-15KT WILL BECOME WEST THEN
NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT ON THE
BAY/OCEAN JUST BEHIND THE FRONT (HIGHEST NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS)...AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT SCA HEADLINES. WINDS
15 KT OR LESS ON THE RIVERS AND SOUND. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO LOWER ALMOST ALL
SCA`S BY 7PM. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR THE COASTAL ZONES
SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER WHERE 5FT SEAS WILL HOLD ON INTO THE
EVENING AS WINDS TURN TO THE N-NE.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE-E WINDS EXPECTED. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME S-SW AND
INCREASE TO SCA SPEEDS TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED AFTN BEFORE
DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT AND WAVES
BUILD TO 3-4 FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. A BRIEF LULL IN WIND SPEEDS
IS EXPECTED WED NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE REGION
AND TURNS WINDS OUT OF THE N-NW. ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD/SNOWY END TO FEBRUARY 2015...RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND
NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE 1800S...AND TO 1906 AT SALISBURY
MD. SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE FOR
FEBRUARY ARE NOTED BELOW:

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

RICHMOND: 31.4 F (-9.5 FROM AVG). 6TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND
THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.5 F (-10.1 FROM AVG). 3RD COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1934.

SALISBURY: 28.7 F (-9.0 FROM AVG). 4TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1979.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...BMD/MPR
AVIATION...BMD/JDM
MARINE...BMD/JDM
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021739
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1239 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FG GONE NOW...AND DRYING WILL CONT THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
XPCG A TEMP SPIKE NEXT FEW HRS BEFORE CAA REALLY TAKES HOLD. POPS
TO BE BLO 14%...AND HI TEMPS FM THE L/M40S ON THE ERN SHORE TO
ARND 50F (WELL) INLAND IN CNTRL/SOUTH CENTRAL VA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1035MB HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA TONITE. XPCT M CLR TO PT
CLDY SKIES TO START OFF THE EVENING. TSCTNS SHOW MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE FA AFTR MIDNITE. SKIES STAY CLR LONG
ENOUGH FOR TMPS TO DROP BELOW FREEZING. LOWS FROM THE L-M20S ERN
SHORE...M-U20S W OF THE BAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE MOISTURE FROM THE NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG
FROM THE W. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WSW WITH A NE INSITU-WEDGE
SETTING UP AT THE SFC AS ANY WRM FRNT SNAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE MTS.
DATA INDICATES PCPN DELAYED UNTIL AFTR 15Z WITH PCPN OVERSPREADING
THE PIEDMONT (MAINLY W OF I95 CORRIDOR) BTWN 15-18Z. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES ALONG WITH SFC TMPS SUGGEST THAT SOME FREEZING RAIN IS
PSBL AT THE ONSET IN AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF RIC...TRANSITIONING TO
PLAIN RAIN DURING THE AFTN. BEST VV`S/OMEGA REMAIN ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF FA TUE AFTN WHERE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE. GIVEN ANTHR WEDGE
EVENT...WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED THE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BUT KEPT
THEM ABOVE FREEZING. HIGHS FROM THE M-U30S NRN HALF OF FA...U30S-
L40S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

WARM FRONT PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. BEST
MOISTURE (THUS HIGHEST POPS) SEEN IN THE EVENING AND ACROSS THE
NORTH...WITH CHC POPS ALL AREAS AFTR MIDNIGHT. MINS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AT 00Z WITH RISING TMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. TMPS BY 12Z WED
RISE INTO THE M40S-L50S.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRNG SSW FLOW.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE SEEN TO CONT PCPN CHCS. WENT AHEAD AND CHANGED
THE PCPN TYPE TO MORE CONVECTIVE RATHER THAN STRATIFORMED. NO
THUNDER EXPECTED AS DATA SHOWS MOST INSTABILITY REMAINING OFFSHORE
INVOF GULF STREAM. ALMOST A SPRING FEEL TO THE DAY AS TMPS FINALLY
RISE ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE U-U50S ERN SHORE...60S MOST AREAS
W OF THE BAY (70 PSBL ACROSS NE NC).

MODELS CONTINUE TO OFFER UP DIFFERENT TIMING SOLUTIONS IN REGARDS
TO THE NEXT ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THE TIMING WILL LIKELY DETERMINE HOW
FAST THE COLDER AIR SWEEPS ACROSS THE FA CHANGING ANY RAIN TO SNOW
AS YET ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO MOVE NE ALONG THE
BNDRY. FOR NOW...FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLN SO I SLOWED THE FROPA DOWN
SEVERAL MORE HRS (TO A PSN ACROSS AKQ`S NRN MOST CNTYS AT 12Z THU).
THIS CHANGE REQUIRES SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO WED NITES TMPS / WX. THE
WARMER SOLN SUGGESTS PCPN REMAINS MAINLY LIQUID THROUGH 12Z THURS.
LOWS IN THE L-M30S NRN MOST CNTYS...U30S-M40S SOUTH. STRNG CAA
ALONG WITH CRASHING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES RESULTS IN RAIN CHANGING
TO SNOW N-S THURSDAY ALONG WITH FALLING TMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THU/THU NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TRICKY FORECAST FOR
THU AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT PRECIP THROUGH THU AND THEN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
THU EVENING. A DECENT JET STREAK OF 150-170KT WILL ALSO ENHANCE
LIFTING POTENTIAL AND AID PRECIP-GENERATION. HIGHS ON THU EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 30S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING BELOW FREEZING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY.
THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPS...FALLING DEWPOINTS AND A COLD
AIRMASS RUNNING INTO REMNANTS OF WARMER AIR SE SHOULD RESULT IN
PRECIP BECOMING TO ALL SNOW FROM NW TO SE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...
WITH A CONTINUATION OF A SNOW/SLEET TRANSITION ZONE AND ALL RAIN
SE OF THIS CHANGE. QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN RATHER HIGH AND SUSPECT THE
ACTUAL AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LESS...WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. SKIES START TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS MOST AREAS AND IN THE
LOW-MID 20S FAR SE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRI. COOL AND
STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP AREAWIDE HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE 30S.
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO FLATTEN FRI NIGHT AND WLY FLOW ALOFT
BEGINS TO MODIFY 850 TEMPS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS
REBOUND INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S SAT AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 50S
SUN. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 AND SUN NIGHT IN
THE LOW-MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION IS MAINLY CLEAR OF LOWERED CIGS EARLY THIS
AFTN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KECG....WHICH IS QUICKLY SEEING
IMPROVEMENTS THIS HOUR (OR 02/1800Z). HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THE HIGH SLIDES OVERHEAD EARLY
TUE MORNING AND THEN OFFSHORE BY TUE AFTN. MORE PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE TUE AFTN/NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO AND ACROSS THE
AREA. EXPECT A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN DETERIORATED CONDITIONS EARLY
WED...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WED
AFTN/EVENING. PRECIPITATION BEGINS AS ALL RAIN ON WED...AND IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A SNOW/SLEET MIX AND THEN TO PRIMARILY
SNOW FROM NW TO SE THU AFTN/EVENING. PERIODS OF IFR CIGS/VIS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE AREA FRI THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH LITTLE
TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...DENSE FOG ADVISORIES HAVE EXPIRED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SW WINDS 10-15KT WILL BECOME WEST THEN
NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT ON THE
BAY/OCEAN JUST BEHIND THE FRONT (HIGHEST NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS)...AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT SCA HEADLINES. WINDS
15 KT OR LESS ON THE RIVERS AND SOUND. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO LOWER ALMOST ALL
SCA`S BY 7PM. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR THE COASTAL ZONES
SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER WHERE 5FT SEAS WILL HOLD ON INTO THE
EVENING AS WINDS TURN TO THE N-NE.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE-E WINDS EXPECTED. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME S-SW AND
INCREASE TO SCA SPEEDS TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED AFTN BEFORE
DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT AND WAVES
BUILD TO 3-4 FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. A BRIEF LULL IN WIND SPEEDS
IS EXPECTED WED NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE REGION
AND TURNS WINDS OUT OF THE N-NW. ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD/SNOWY END TO FEBRUARY 2015...RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND
NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE 1800S...AND TO 1906 AT SALISBURY
MD. SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE FOR
FEBRUARY ARE NOTED BELOW:

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

RICHMOND: 31.4 F (-9.5 FROM AVG). 6TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND
THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.5 F (-10.1 FROM AVG). 3RD COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1934.

SALISBURY: 28.7 F (-9.0 FROM AVG). 4TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1979.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...BMD/MPR
AVIATION...BMD/JDM
MARINE...BMD/JDM
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021739
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1239 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FG GONE NOW...AND DRYING WILL CONT THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
XPCG A TEMP SPIKE NEXT FEW HRS BEFORE CAA REALLY TAKES HOLD. POPS
TO BE BLO 14%...AND HI TEMPS FM THE L/M40S ON THE ERN SHORE TO
ARND 50F (WELL) INLAND IN CNTRL/SOUTH CENTRAL VA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1035MB HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA TONITE. XPCT M CLR TO PT
CLDY SKIES TO START OFF THE EVENING. TSCTNS SHOW MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE FA AFTR MIDNITE. SKIES STAY CLR LONG
ENOUGH FOR TMPS TO DROP BELOW FREEZING. LOWS FROM THE L-M20S ERN
SHORE...M-U20S W OF THE BAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE MOISTURE FROM THE NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG
FROM THE W. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WSW WITH A NE INSITU-WEDGE
SETTING UP AT THE SFC AS ANY WRM FRNT SNAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE MTS.
DATA INDICATES PCPN DELAYED UNTIL AFTR 15Z WITH PCPN OVERSPREADING
THE PIEDMONT (MAINLY W OF I95 CORRIDOR) BTWN 15-18Z. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES ALONG WITH SFC TMPS SUGGEST THAT SOME FREEZING RAIN IS
PSBL AT THE ONSET IN AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF RIC...TRANSITIONING TO
PLAIN RAIN DURING THE AFTN. BEST VV`S/OMEGA REMAIN ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF FA TUE AFTN WHERE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE. GIVEN ANTHR WEDGE
EVENT...WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED THE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BUT KEPT
THEM ABOVE FREEZING. HIGHS FROM THE M-U30S NRN HALF OF FA...U30S-
L40S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

WARM FRONT PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. BEST
MOISTURE (THUS HIGHEST POPS) SEEN IN THE EVENING AND ACROSS THE
NORTH...WITH CHC POPS ALL AREAS AFTR MIDNIGHT. MINS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AT 00Z WITH RISING TMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. TMPS BY 12Z WED
RISE INTO THE M40S-L50S.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRNG SSW FLOW.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE SEEN TO CONT PCPN CHCS. WENT AHEAD AND CHANGED
THE PCPN TYPE TO MORE CONVECTIVE RATHER THAN STRATIFORMED. NO
THUNDER EXPECTED AS DATA SHOWS MOST INSTABILITY REMAINING OFFSHORE
INVOF GULF STREAM. ALMOST A SPRING FEEL TO THE DAY AS TMPS FINALLY
RISE ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE U-U50S ERN SHORE...60S MOST AREAS
W OF THE BAY (70 PSBL ACROSS NE NC).

MODELS CONTINUE TO OFFER UP DIFFERENT TIMING SOLUTIONS IN REGARDS
TO THE NEXT ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THE TIMING WILL LIKELY DETERMINE HOW
FAST THE COLDER AIR SWEEPS ACROSS THE FA CHANGING ANY RAIN TO SNOW
AS YET ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO MOVE NE ALONG THE
BNDRY. FOR NOW...FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLN SO I SLOWED THE FROPA DOWN
SEVERAL MORE HRS (TO A PSN ACROSS AKQ`S NRN MOST CNTYS AT 12Z THU).
THIS CHANGE REQUIRES SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO WED NITES TMPS / WX. THE
WARMER SOLN SUGGESTS PCPN REMAINS MAINLY LIQUID THROUGH 12Z THURS.
LOWS IN THE L-M30S NRN MOST CNTYS...U30S-M40S SOUTH. STRNG CAA
ALONG WITH CRASHING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES RESULTS IN RAIN CHANGING
TO SNOW N-S THURSDAY ALONG WITH FALLING TMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THU/THU NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TRICKY FORECAST FOR
THU AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT PRECIP THROUGH THU AND THEN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
THU EVENING. A DECENT JET STREAK OF 150-170KT WILL ALSO ENHANCE
LIFTING POTENTIAL AND AID PRECIP-GENERATION. HIGHS ON THU EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 30S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING BELOW FREEZING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY.
THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPS...FALLING DEWPOINTS AND A COLD
AIRMASS RUNNING INTO REMNANTS OF WARMER AIR SE SHOULD RESULT IN
PRECIP BECOMING TO ALL SNOW FROM NW TO SE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...
WITH A CONTINUATION OF A SNOW/SLEET TRANSITION ZONE AND ALL RAIN
SE OF THIS CHANGE. QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN RATHER HIGH AND SUSPECT THE
ACTUAL AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LESS...WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. SKIES START TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS MOST AREAS AND IN THE
LOW-MID 20S FAR SE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRI. COOL AND
STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP AREAWIDE HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE 30S.
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO FLATTEN FRI NIGHT AND WLY FLOW ALOFT
BEGINS TO MODIFY 850 TEMPS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS
REBOUND INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S SAT AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 50S
SUN. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 AND SUN NIGHT IN
THE LOW-MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION IS MAINLY CLEAR OF LOWERED CIGS EARLY THIS
AFTN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KECG....WHICH IS QUICKLY SEEING
IMPROVEMENTS THIS HOUR (OR 02/1800Z). HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THE HIGH SLIDES OVERHEAD EARLY
TUE MORNING AND THEN OFFSHORE BY TUE AFTN. MORE PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE TUE AFTN/NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO AND ACROSS THE
AREA. EXPECT A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN DETERIORATED CONDITIONS EARLY
WED...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WED
AFTN/EVENING. PRECIPITATION BEGINS AS ALL RAIN ON WED...AND IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A SNOW/SLEET MIX AND THEN TO PRIMARILY
SNOW FROM NW TO SE THU AFTN/EVENING. PERIODS OF IFR CIGS/VIS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE AREA FRI THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH LITTLE
TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...DENSE FOG ADVISORIES HAVE EXPIRED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SW WINDS 10-15KT WILL BECOME WEST THEN
NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT ON THE
BAY/OCEAN JUST BEHIND THE FRONT (HIGHEST NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS)...AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT SCA HEADLINES. WINDS
15 KT OR LESS ON THE RIVERS AND SOUND. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO LOWER ALMOST ALL
SCA`S BY 7PM. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR THE COASTAL ZONES
SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER WHERE 5FT SEAS WILL HOLD ON INTO THE
EVENING AS WINDS TURN TO THE N-NE.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE-E WINDS EXPECTED. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME S-SW AND
INCREASE TO SCA SPEEDS TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED AFTN BEFORE
DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT AND WAVES
BUILD TO 3-4 FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. A BRIEF LULL IN WIND SPEEDS
IS EXPECTED WED NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE REGION
AND TURNS WINDS OUT OF THE N-NW. ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD/SNOWY END TO FEBRUARY 2015...RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND
NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE 1800S...AND TO 1906 AT SALISBURY
MD. SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE FOR
FEBRUARY ARE NOTED BELOW:

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

RICHMOND: 31.4 F (-9.5 FROM AVG). 6TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND
THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.5 F (-10.1 FROM AVG). 3RD COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1934.

SALISBURY: 28.7 F (-9.0 FROM AVG). 4TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1979.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...BMD/MPR
AVIATION...BMD/JDM
MARINE...BMD/JDM
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021739
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1239 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FG GONE NOW...AND DRYING WILL CONT THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
XPCG A TEMP SPIKE NEXT FEW HRS BEFORE CAA REALLY TAKES HOLD. POPS
TO BE BLO 14%...AND HI TEMPS FM THE L/M40S ON THE ERN SHORE TO
ARND 50F (WELL) INLAND IN CNTRL/SOUTH CENTRAL VA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1035MB HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA TONITE. XPCT M CLR TO PT
CLDY SKIES TO START OFF THE EVENING. TSCTNS SHOW MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE FA AFTR MIDNITE. SKIES STAY CLR LONG
ENOUGH FOR TMPS TO DROP BELOW FREEZING. LOWS FROM THE L-M20S ERN
SHORE...M-U20S W OF THE BAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE MOISTURE FROM THE NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG
FROM THE W. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WSW WITH A NE INSITU-WEDGE
SETTING UP AT THE SFC AS ANY WRM FRNT SNAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE MTS.
DATA INDICATES PCPN DELAYED UNTIL AFTR 15Z WITH PCPN OVERSPREADING
THE PIEDMONT (MAINLY W OF I95 CORRIDOR) BTWN 15-18Z. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES ALONG WITH SFC TMPS SUGGEST THAT SOME FREEZING RAIN IS
PSBL AT THE ONSET IN AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF RIC...TRANSITIONING TO
PLAIN RAIN DURING THE AFTN. BEST VV`S/OMEGA REMAIN ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF FA TUE AFTN WHERE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE. GIVEN ANTHR WEDGE
EVENT...WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED THE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BUT KEPT
THEM ABOVE FREEZING. HIGHS FROM THE M-U30S NRN HALF OF FA...U30S-
L40S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

WARM FRONT PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. BEST
MOISTURE (THUS HIGHEST POPS) SEEN IN THE EVENING AND ACROSS THE
NORTH...WITH CHC POPS ALL AREAS AFTR MIDNIGHT. MINS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AT 00Z WITH RISING TMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. TMPS BY 12Z WED
RISE INTO THE M40S-L50S.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRNG SSW FLOW.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE SEEN TO CONT PCPN CHCS. WENT AHEAD AND CHANGED
THE PCPN TYPE TO MORE CONVECTIVE RATHER THAN STRATIFORMED. NO
THUNDER EXPECTED AS DATA SHOWS MOST INSTABILITY REMAINING OFFSHORE
INVOF GULF STREAM. ALMOST A SPRING FEEL TO THE DAY AS TMPS FINALLY
RISE ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE U-U50S ERN SHORE...60S MOST AREAS
W OF THE BAY (70 PSBL ACROSS NE NC).

MODELS CONTINUE TO OFFER UP DIFFERENT TIMING SOLUTIONS IN REGARDS
TO THE NEXT ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THE TIMING WILL LIKELY DETERMINE HOW
FAST THE COLDER AIR SWEEPS ACROSS THE FA CHANGING ANY RAIN TO SNOW
AS YET ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO MOVE NE ALONG THE
BNDRY. FOR NOW...FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLN SO I SLOWED THE FROPA DOWN
SEVERAL MORE HRS (TO A PSN ACROSS AKQ`S NRN MOST CNTYS AT 12Z THU).
THIS CHANGE REQUIRES SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO WED NITES TMPS / WX. THE
WARMER SOLN SUGGESTS PCPN REMAINS MAINLY LIQUID THROUGH 12Z THURS.
LOWS IN THE L-M30S NRN MOST CNTYS...U30S-M40S SOUTH. STRNG CAA
ALONG WITH CRASHING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES RESULTS IN RAIN CHANGING
TO SNOW N-S THURSDAY ALONG WITH FALLING TMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THU/THU NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TRICKY FORECAST FOR
THU AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT PRECIP THROUGH THU AND THEN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
THU EVENING. A DECENT JET STREAK OF 150-170KT WILL ALSO ENHANCE
LIFTING POTENTIAL AND AID PRECIP-GENERATION. HIGHS ON THU EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 30S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING BELOW FREEZING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY.
THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPS...FALLING DEWPOINTS AND A COLD
AIRMASS RUNNING INTO REMNANTS OF WARMER AIR SE SHOULD RESULT IN
PRECIP BECOMING TO ALL SNOW FROM NW TO SE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...
WITH A CONTINUATION OF A SNOW/SLEET TRANSITION ZONE AND ALL RAIN
SE OF THIS CHANGE. QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN RATHER HIGH AND SUSPECT THE
ACTUAL AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LESS...WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. SKIES START TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS MOST AREAS AND IN THE
LOW-MID 20S FAR SE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRI. COOL AND
STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP AREAWIDE HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE 30S.
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO FLATTEN FRI NIGHT AND WLY FLOW ALOFT
BEGINS TO MODIFY 850 TEMPS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS
REBOUND INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S SAT AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 50S
SUN. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 AND SUN NIGHT IN
THE LOW-MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION IS MAINLY CLEAR OF LOWERED CIGS EARLY THIS
AFTN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KECG....WHICH IS QUICKLY SEEING
IMPROVEMENTS THIS HOUR (OR 02/1800Z). HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THE HIGH SLIDES OVERHEAD EARLY
TUE MORNING AND THEN OFFSHORE BY TUE AFTN. MORE PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE TUE AFTN/NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO AND ACROSS THE
AREA. EXPECT A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN DETERIORATED CONDITIONS EARLY
WED...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WED
AFTN/EVENING. PRECIPITATION BEGINS AS ALL RAIN ON WED...AND IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A SNOW/SLEET MIX AND THEN TO PRIMARILY
SNOW FROM NW TO SE THU AFTN/EVENING. PERIODS OF IFR CIGS/VIS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE AREA FRI THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH LITTLE
TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...DENSE FOG ADVISORIES HAVE EXPIRED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SW WINDS 10-15KT WILL BECOME WEST THEN
NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT ON THE
BAY/OCEAN JUST BEHIND THE FRONT (HIGHEST NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS)...AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT SCA HEADLINES. WINDS
15 KT OR LESS ON THE RIVERS AND SOUND. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO LOWER ALMOST ALL
SCA`S BY 7PM. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR THE COASTAL ZONES
SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER WHERE 5FT SEAS WILL HOLD ON INTO THE
EVENING AS WINDS TURN TO THE N-NE.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE-E WINDS EXPECTED. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME S-SW AND
INCREASE TO SCA SPEEDS TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED AFTN BEFORE
DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT AND WAVES
BUILD TO 3-4 FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. A BRIEF LULL IN WIND SPEEDS
IS EXPECTED WED NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE REGION
AND TURNS WINDS OUT OF THE N-NW. ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD/SNOWY END TO FEBRUARY 2015...RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND
NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE 1800S...AND TO 1906 AT SALISBURY
MD. SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE FOR
FEBRUARY ARE NOTED BELOW:

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

RICHMOND: 31.4 F (-9.5 FROM AVG). 6TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND
THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.5 F (-10.1 FROM AVG). 3RD COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1934.

SALISBURY: 28.7 F (-9.0 FROM AVG). 4TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1979.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...BMD/MPR
AVIATION...BMD/JDM
MARINE...BMD/JDM
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021739
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1239 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FG GONE NOW...AND DRYING WILL CONT THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
XPCG A TEMP SPIKE NEXT FEW HRS BEFORE CAA REALLY TAKES HOLD. POPS
TO BE BLO 14%...AND HI TEMPS FM THE L/M40S ON THE ERN SHORE TO
ARND 50F (WELL) INLAND IN CNTRL/SOUTH CENTRAL VA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1035MB HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA TONITE. XPCT M CLR TO PT
CLDY SKIES TO START OFF THE EVENING. TSCTNS SHOW MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE FA AFTR MIDNITE. SKIES STAY CLR LONG
ENOUGH FOR TMPS TO DROP BELOW FREEZING. LOWS FROM THE L-M20S ERN
SHORE...M-U20S W OF THE BAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE MOISTURE FROM THE NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG
FROM THE W. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WSW WITH A NE INSITU-WEDGE
SETTING UP AT THE SFC AS ANY WRM FRNT SNAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE MTS.
DATA INDICATES PCPN DELAYED UNTIL AFTR 15Z WITH PCPN OVERSPREADING
THE PIEDMONT (MAINLY W OF I95 CORRIDOR) BTWN 15-18Z. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES ALONG WITH SFC TMPS SUGGEST THAT SOME FREEZING RAIN IS
PSBL AT THE ONSET IN AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF RIC...TRANSITIONING TO
PLAIN RAIN DURING THE AFTN. BEST VV`S/OMEGA REMAIN ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF FA TUE AFTN WHERE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE. GIVEN ANTHR WEDGE
EVENT...WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED THE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BUT KEPT
THEM ABOVE FREEZING. HIGHS FROM THE M-U30S NRN HALF OF FA...U30S-
L40S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

WARM FRONT PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. BEST
MOISTURE (THUS HIGHEST POPS) SEEN IN THE EVENING AND ACROSS THE
NORTH...WITH CHC POPS ALL AREAS AFTR MIDNIGHT. MINS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AT 00Z WITH RISING TMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. TMPS BY 12Z WED
RISE INTO THE M40S-L50S.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRNG SSW FLOW.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE SEEN TO CONT PCPN CHCS. WENT AHEAD AND CHANGED
THE PCPN TYPE TO MORE CONVECTIVE RATHER THAN STRATIFORMED. NO
THUNDER EXPECTED AS DATA SHOWS MOST INSTABILITY REMAINING OFFSHORE
INVOF GULF STREAM. ALMOST A SPRING FEEL TO THE DAY AS TMPS FINALLY
RISE ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE U-U50S ERN SHORE...60S MOST AREAS
W OF THE BAY (70 PSBL ACROSS NE NC).

MODELS CONTINUE TO OFFER UP DIFFERENT TIMING SOLUTIONS IN REGARDS
TO THE NEXT ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THE TIMING WILL LIKELY DETERMINE HOW
FAST THE COLDER AIR SWEEPS ACROSS THE FA CHANGING ANY RAIN TO SNOW
AS YET ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO MOVE NE ALONG THE
BNDRY. FOR NOW...FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLN SO I SLOWED THE FROPA DOWN
SEVERAL MORE HRS (TO A PSN ACROSS AKQ`S NRN MOST CNTYS AT 12Z THU).
THIS CHANGE REQUIRES SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO WED NITES TMPS / WX. THE
WARMER SOLN SUGGESTS PCPN REMAINS MAINLY LIQUID THROUGH 12Z THURS.
LOWS IN THE L-M30S NRN MOST CNTYS...U30S-M40S SOUTH. STRNG CAA
ALONG WITH CRASHING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES RESULTS IN RAIN CHANGING
TO SNOW N-S THURSDAY ALONG WITH FALLING TMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THU/THU NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TRICKY FORECAST FOR
THU AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT PRECIP THROUGH THU AND THEN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
THU EVENING. A DECENT JET STREAK OF 150-170KT WILL ALSO ENHANCE
LIFTING POTENTIAL AND AID PRECIP-GENERATION. HIGHS ON THU EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 30S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING BELOW FREEZING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY.
THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPS...FALLING DEWPOINTS AND A COLD
AIRMASS RUNNING INTO REMNANTS OF WARMER AIR SE SHOULD RESULT IN
PRECIP BECOMING TO ALL SNOW FROM NW TO SE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...
WITH A CONTINUATION OF A SNOW/SLEET TRANSITION ZONE AND ALL RAIN
SE OF THIS CHANGE. QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN RATHER HIGH AND SUSPECT THE
ACTUAL AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LESS...WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. SKIES START TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS MOST AREAS AND IN THE
LOW-MID 20S FAR SE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRI. COOL AND
STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP AREAWIDE HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE 30S.
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO FLATTEN FRI NIGHT AND WLY FLOW ALOFT
BEGINS TO MODIFY 850 TEMPS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS
REBOUND INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S SAT AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 50S
SUN. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 AND SUN NIGHT IN
THE LOW-MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION IS MAINLY CLEAR OF LOWERED CIGS EARLY THIS
AFTN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KECG....WHICH IS QUICKLY SEEING
IMPROVEMENTS THIS HOUR (OR 02/1800Z). HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THE HIGH SLIDES OVERHEAD EARLY
TUE MORNING AND THEN OFFSHORE BY TUE AFTN. MORE PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE TUE AFTN/NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO AND ACROSS THE
AREA. EXPECT A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN DETERIORATED CONDITIONS EARLY
WED...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WED
AFTN/EVENING. PRECIPITATION BEGINS AS ALL RAIN ON WED...AND IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A SNOW/SLEET MIX AND THEN TO PRIMARILY
SNOW FROM NW TO SE THU AFTN/EVENING. PERIODS OF IFR CIGS/VIS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE AREA FRI THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH LITTLE
TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...DENSE FOG ADVISORIES HAVE EXPIRED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SW WINDS 10-15KT WILL BECOME WEST THEN
NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT ON THE
BAY/OCEAN JUST BEHIND THE FRONT (HIGHEST NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS)...AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT SCA HEADLINES. WINDS
15 KT OR LESS ON THE RIVERS AND SOUND. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO LOWER ALMOST ALL
SCA`S BY 7PM. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR THE COASTAL ZONES
SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER WHERE 5FT SEAS WILL HOLD ON INTO THE
EVENING AS WINDS TURN TO THE N-NE.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE-E WINDS EXPECTED. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME S-SW AND
INCREASE TO SCA SPEEDS TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED AFTN BEFORE
DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT AND WAVES
BUILD TO 3-4 FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. A BRIEF LULL IN WIND SPEEDS
IS EXPECTED WED NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE REGION
AND TURNS WINDS OUT OF THE N-NW. ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD/SNOWY END TO FEBRUARY 2015...RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND
NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE 1800S...AND TO 1906 AT SALISBURY
MD. SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE FOR
FEBRUARY ARE NOTED BELOW:

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

RICHMOND: 31.4 F (-9.5 FROM AVG). 6TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND
THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.5 F (-10.1 FROM AVG). 3RD COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1934.

SALISBURY: 28.7 F (-9.0 FROM AVG). 4TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1979.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...BMD/MPR
AVIATION...BMD/JDM
MARINE...BMD/JDM
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021739
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1239 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FG GONE NOW...AND DRYING WILL CONT THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
XPCG A TEMP SPIKE NEXT FEW HRS BEFORE CAA REALLY TAKES HOLD. POPS
TO BE BLO 14%...AND HI TEMPS FM THE L/M40S ON THE ERN SHORE TO
ARND 50F (WELL) INLAND IN CNTRL/SOUTH CENTRAL VA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1035MB HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA TONITE. XPCT M CLR TO PT
CLDY SKIES TO START OFF THE EVENING. TSCTNS SHOW MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE FA AFTR MIDNITE. SKIES STAY CLR LONG
ENOUGH FOR TMPS TO DROP BELOW FREEZING. LOWS FROM THE L-M20S ERN
SHORE...M-U20S W OF THE BAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE MOISTURE FROM THE NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG
FROM THE W. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WSW WITH A NE INSITU-WEDGE
SETTING UP AT THE SFC AS ANY WRM FRNT SNAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE MTS.
DATA INDICATES PCPN DELAYED UNTIL AFTR 15Z WITH PCPN OVERSPREADING
THE PIEDMONT (MAINLY W OF I95 CORRIDOR) BTWN 15-18Z. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES ALONG WITH SFC TMPS SUGGEST THAT SOME FREEZING RAIN IS
PSBL AT THE ONSET IN AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF RIC...TRANSITIONING TO
PLAIN RAIN DURING THE AFTN. BEST VV`S/OMEGA REMAIN ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF FA TUE AFTN WHERE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE. GIVEN ANTHR WEDGE
EVENT...WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED THE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BUT KEPT
THEM ABOVE FREEZING. HIGHS FROM THE M-U30S NRN HALF OF FA...U30S-
L40S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

WARM FRONT PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. BEST
MOISTURE (THUS HIGHEST POPS) SEEN IN THE EVENING AND ACROSS THE
NORTH...WITH CHC POPS ALL AREAS AFTR MIDNIGHT. MINS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AT 00Z WITH RISING TMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. TMPS BY 12Z WED
RISE INTO THE M40S-L50S.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRNG SSW FLOW.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE SEEN TO CONT PCPN CHCS. WENT AHEAD AND CHANGED
THE PCPN TYPE TO MORE CONVECTIVE RATHER THAN STRATIFORMED. NO
THUNDER EXPECTED AS DATA SHOWS MOST INSTABILITY REMAINING OFFSHORE
INVOF GULF STREAM. ALMOST A SPRING FEEL TO THE DAY AS TMPS FINALLY
RISE ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE U-U50S ERN SHORE...60S MOST AREAS
W OF THE BAY (70 PSBL ACROSS NE NC).

MODELS CONTINUE TO OFFER UP DIFFERENT TIMING SOLUTIONS IN REGARDS
TO THE NEXT ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THE TIMING WILL LIKELY DETERMINE HOW
FAST THE COLDER AIR SWEEPS ACROSS THE FA CHANGING ANY RAIN TO SNOW
AS YET ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO MOVE NE ALONG THE
BNDRY. FOR NOW...FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLN SO I SLOWED THE FROPA DOWN
SEVERAL MORE HRS (TO A PSN ACROSS AKQ`S NRN MOST CNTYS AT 12Z THU).
THIS CHANGE REQUIRES SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO WED NITES TMPS / WX. THE
WARMER SOLN SUGGESTS PCPN REMAINS MAINLY LIQUID THROUGH 12Z THURS.
LOWS IN THE L-M30S NRN MOST CNTYS...U30S-M40S SOUTH. STRNG CAA
ALONG WITH CRASHING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES RESULTS IN RAIN CHANGING
TO SNOW N-S THURSDAY ALONG WITH FALLING TMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THU/THU NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TRICKY FORECAST FOR
THU AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT PRECIP THROUGH THU AND THEN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
THU EVENING. A DECENT JET STREAK OF 150-170KT WILL ALSO ENHANCE
LIFTING POTENTIAL AND AID PRECIP-GENERATION. HIGHS ON THU EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 30S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING BELOW FREEZING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY.
THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPS...FALLING DEWPOINTS AND A COLD
AIRMASS RUNNING INTO REMNANTS OF WARMER AIR SE SHOULD RESULT IN
PRECIP BECOMING TO ALL SNOW FROM NW TO SE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...
WITH A CONTINUATION OF A SNOW/SLEET TRANSITION ZONE AND ALL RAIN
SE OF THIS CHANGE. QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN RATHER HIGH AND SUSPECT THE
ACTUAL AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LESS...WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. SKIES START TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS MOST AREAS AND IN THE
LOW-MID 20S FAR SE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRI. COOL AND
STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP AREAWIDE HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE 30S.
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO FLATTEN FRI NIGHT AND WLY FLOW ALOFT
BEGINS TO MODIFY 850 TEMPS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS
REBOUND INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S SAT AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 50S
SUN. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 AND SUN NIGHT IN
THE LOW-MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION IS MAINLY CLEAR OF LOWERED CIGS EARLY THIS
AFTN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KECG....WHICH IS QUICKLY SEEING
IMPROVEMENTS THIS HOUR (OR 02/1800Z). HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THE HIGH SLIDES OVERHEAD EARLY
TUE MORNING AND THEN OFFSHORE BY TUE AFTN. MORE PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE TUE AFTN/NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO AND ACROSS THE
AREA. EXPECT A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN DETERIORATED CONDITIONS EARLY
WED...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WED
AFTN/EVENING. PRECIPITATION BEGINS AS ALL RAIN ON WED...AND IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A SNOW/SLEET MIX AND THEN TO PRIMARILY
SNOW FROM NW TO SE THU AFTN/EVENING. PERIODS OF IFR CIGS/VIS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE AREA FRI THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH LITTLE
TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...DENSE FOG ADVISORIES HAVE EXPIRED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SW WINDS 10-15KT WILL BECOME WEST THEN
NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT ON THE
BAY/OCEAN JUST BEHIND THE FRONT (HIGHEST NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS)...AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT SCA HEADLINES. WINDS
15 KT OR LESS ON THE RIVERS AND SOUND. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO LOWER ALMOST ALL
SCA`S BY 7PM. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR THE COASTAL ZONES
SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER WHERE 5FT SEAS WILL HOLD ON INTO THE
EVENING AS WINDS TURN TO THE N-NE.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE-E WINDS EXPECTED. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME S-SW AND
INCREASE TO SCA SPEEDS TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED AFTN BEFORE
DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT AND WAVES
BUILD TO 3-4 FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. A BRIEF LULL IN WIND SPEEDS
IS EXPECTED WED NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE REGION
AND TURNS WINDS OUT OF THE N-NW. ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD/SNOWY END TO FEBRUARY 2015...RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND
NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE 1800S...AND TO 1906 AT SALISBURY
MD. SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE FOR
FEBRUARY ARE NOTED BELOW:

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

RICHMOND: 31.4 F (-9.5 FROM AVG). 6TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND
THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.5 F (-10.1 FROM AVG). 3RD COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1934.

SALISBURY: 28.7 F (-9.0 FROM AVG). 4TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1979.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...BMD/MPR
AVIATION...BMD/JDM
MARINE...BMD/JDM
CLIMATE...









000
FXUS61 KRNK 021737
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1237 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND OFF THE COAST THIS
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT...CROSSING THE
OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
TUESDAY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM EST MONDAY...

A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WSR-88D SHOWED A FEW NARROW BANDS OF SNOW
AND RAIN DIMINISHING THIS MORNING. MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO DIMINISH  POPS
THIS MORNING WITH DRY AIR PUNCH AND DOWNSLOPING EFFECT. LEANED
POPS TOWARDS RNK WRF-ARW FOR NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MODIFIED
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON ACCORDING TO SFC
OBS AND MODEL TRENDS.

AS OF 500 AM EST MONDAY...

A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH THE MORNING AND WILL BE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY NOON. MODELS HOLD A MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE FAR WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA
THIS MORNING. PUSH OF DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE ENOUGH
TO END CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND CLEAR OUR MUCH OF THE FOG AND
CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY TODAY AND WEDGES DOWN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS
TONIGHT.

850 MB WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE 45 TO 55 KNOTS WITH PRESSURE
RISES 5 TO 7 MB/6 HOURS THIS MORNING. WILL HAVE WINDS GUSTING JUST
BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL...UP TO 50 MPH THIS MORNING. WINDS DIMINISH
THIS AFTERNOON AND THE TURN TO THE EAST THEN SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS
THE WEDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED. THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK NORTH ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND EASTERN
SLOPES OVERNIGHT.

COLDER AIR COMES IN BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY...BUT WITH SHRINKING
AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION AND SOME SUN IN THE
AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE. AS WIND
DROPS OFF THIS EVENING...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BUT AS CLOUD FILL
BACK IN LATE TONIGHT DROP IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED.

HAVE ADDED PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR
THE TYPICAL UPSLOPE AREA ALONG AND EAST OF THE SOUTHERN BLUE
RIDGE. BUFKIT SHOWED A WARM NOSE AROUND 3000 FT AGL AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM EST MONDAY...

WE WILL START OUT TUESDAY DEALING WITH ANOTHER WEDGE SITUATION
SIMILAR TO WHAT WE JUST WENT THROUGH ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH MORE
SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION TO DEAL WITH. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES DOWN
THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL GET OVER RUN BY MUCH WARMER AIR AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. SOUNDINGS ON BUFKIT SHOW
THE DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO BE SUBSTANTIALLY
DEEP AND COLD AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL FAVOR SOME
SLEET AND HELP KEEP DOWN ICING ACCUMULATIONS FROM FREEZING RAIN AS
PRECIPITATION MOVES IN. AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE...THE WARMER AIR
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GOOD WARMING AND THE LEAST
POTENTIAL FOR ICING FROM THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE AND GRAYSON HIGHLANDS
OF VA INTO THE NW MOUNTAINS OF NC. EXPECTING THE WARMER AIR TO
INTRUDE INTO THE NEW RIVER AND ROANOKE VALLEYS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT THE COLD AIR WILL MODERATE ONLY SLOWLY ACROSS THE
GREENBRIER VALLEY...ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS...AND PIEDMONTS OF NC/VA.
HOWEVER...EVEN THIS SLIGHT TEMPERATURE MODERATION SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO END THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE IT MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THE LATEST QPF
FORECASTS AND EXPECTED SNOW MELT...CURRENT HYDROLOGIC MODELS DO NOT
INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD THREAT BUT SMALLER STREAMS AND
CREEKS ARE STILL A CONCERN. HOWEVER...CONSENSUS TIMING OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS NOT CLEAR CUT AND BELIEVE IT BEST TO WAIT FOR
LATER MODEL RUNS BEFORE DECIDING IF ANY HYDRO WATCHES ARE NEEDED.

AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A BURST OF SNOW AS THE COLD AIR
CATCHES UP TO THE BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION STARTING ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT. IT LOOKS TO BE A FINE LINE BETWEEN WHERE
THE AIR TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT SNOW AND WHERE THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION WILL BE. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION TO RECEIVE SEVERAL
INCHES OF WET SNOW CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE 30 MILES OR SO EITHER
SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT THIS WILL LIKELY CHANGE AS THE
SITUATION DEVELOPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EST SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT...SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWER WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HOWEVER...BY MIDNIGHT...PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END...AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION WILL TREND FROM CLOUDY TO PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE LOWER
TEENS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD INTO...OVER...AND THEN EAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL HAVE THE
IMPACT TO KEEP OUR REGION PRECIPITATION FREE WITH A TREND FROM
COLDER CONDITIONS TO MILDER CONDITIONS AS WE START GETTING ON THE
RETURN SIDE SW-W FLOW OF THE HIGH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE TREND
WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH NO PRECIPITATION AND EVEN MILDER
CONDITIONS AS A TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE CENTRAL U.S. AND A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1237 PM EST MONDAY...

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SCT TO BKN MVFR CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WEDGE DOWN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS
TONIGHT. AS SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHWEST...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN NORTH ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR
AT KBCB AND KDAN AFTER 06Z/1AM. LIGHT RAIN...FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. A WINTRY
MIXTURE TUESDAY MORNING WILL TRANSITION TO MAINLY RAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
PERIOD.


EXTENDED FORECAST...

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT ALL OF THE REGION
WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY
AND WINTER PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

FRIDAY SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR WEATHER.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 500 AM EST MONDAY...

THERE IS A CONCERN FOR THE POTENTIAL OF FLOODING BECAUSE OF THE
COMBINATION OF SNOW MELT AND HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE
GREENBRIER...UPPER JAMES RIVER BASINS WHERE UP TO TWO FEET OF SNOW
HAS FALLEN DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.

SOME MELTING HAS OCCURRED AND MORE IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TUESDAY.
FORECAST RAIN AMOUNTS ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MAY REACH 1.5
INCHES. THE COMBINATION OF SNOW MELT AND THIS MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR RISES ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS.
MAJOR FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

THE NEXT WAVE OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SHOULD TRACK ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...WHERE THERE IS LITTLE TO NO SNOWPACK OF CONCERN.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS/PM
HYDROLOGY...AMS/RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 021737
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1237 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND OFF THE COAST THIS
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT...CROSSING THE
OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
TUESDAY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM EST MONDAY...

A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WSR-88D SHOWED A FEW NARROW BANDS OF SNOW
AND RAIN DIMINISHING THIS MORNING. MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO DIMINISH  POPS
THIS MORNING WITH DRY AIR PUNCH AND DOWNSLOPING EFFECT. LEANED
POPS TOWARDS RNK WRF-ARW FOR NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MODIFIED
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON ACCORDING TO SFC
OBS AND MODEL TRENDS.

AS OF 500 AM EST MONDAY...

A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH THE MORNING AND WILL BE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY NOON. MODELS HOLD A MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE FAR WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA
THIS MORNING. PUSH OF DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE ENOUGH
TO END CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND CLEAR OUR MUCH OF THE FOG AND
CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY TODAY AND WEDGES DOWN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS
TONIGHT.

850 MB WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE 45 TO 55 KNOTS WITH PRESSURE
RISES 5 TO 7 MB/6 HOURS THIS MORNING. WILL HAVE WINDS GUSTING JUST
BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL...UP TO 50 MPH THIS MORNING. WINDS DIMINISH
THIS AFTERNOON AND THE TURN TO THE EAST THEN SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS
THE WEDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED. THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK NORTH ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND EASTERN
SLOPES OVERNIGHT.

COLDER AIR COMES IN BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY...BUT WITH SHRINKING
AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION AND SOME SUN IN THE
AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE. AS WIND
DROPS OFF THIS EVENING...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BUT AS CLOUD FILL
BACK IN LATE TONIGHT DROP IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED.

HAVE ADDED PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR
THE TYPICAL UPSLOPE AREA ALONG AND EAST OF THE SOUTHERN BLUE
RIDGE. BUFKIT SHOWED A WARM NOSE AROUND 3000 FT AGL AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM EST MONDAY...

WE WILL START OUT TUESDAY DEALING WITH ANOTHER WEDGE SITUATION
SIMILAR TO WHAT WE JUST WENT THROUGH ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH MORE
SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION TO DEAL WITH. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES DOWN
THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL GET OVER RUN BY MUCH WARMER AIR AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. SOUNDINGS ON BUFKIT SHOW
THE DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO BE SUBSTANTIALLY
DEEP AND COLD AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL FAVOR SOME
SLEET AND HELP KEEP DOWN ICING ACCUMULATIONS FROM FREEZING RAIN AS
PRECIPITATION MOVES IN. AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE...THE WARMER AIR
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GOOD WARMING AND THE LEAST
POTENTIAL FOR ICING FROM THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE AND GRAYSON HIGHLANDS
OF VA INTO THE NW MOUNTAINS OF NC. EXPECTING THE WARMER AIR TO
INTRUDE INTO THE NEW RIVER AND ROANOKE VALLEYS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT THE COLD AIR WILL MODERATE ONLY SLOWLY ACROSS THE
GREENBRIER VALLEY...ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS...AND PIEDMONTS OF NC/VA.
HOWEVER...EVEN THIS SLIGHT TEMPERATURE MODERATION SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO END THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE IT MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THE LATEST QPF
FORECASTS AND EXPECTED SNOW MELT...CURRENT HYDROLOGIC MODELS DO NOT
INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD THREAT BUT SMALLER STREAMS AND
CREEKS ARE STILL A CONCERN. HOWEVER...CONSENSUS TIMING OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS NOT CLEAR CUT AND BELIEVE IT BEST TO WAIT FOR
LATER MODEL RUNS BEFORE DECIDING IF ANY HYDRO WATCHES ARE NEEDED.

AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A BURST OF SNOW AS THE COLD AIR
CATCHES UP TO THE BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION STARTING ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT. IT LOOKS TO BE A FINE LINE BETWEEN WHERE
THE AIR TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT SNOW AND WHERE THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION WILL BE. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION TO RECEIVE SEVERAL
INCHES OF WET SNOW CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE 30 MILES OR SO EITHER
SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT THIS WILL LIKELY CHANGE AS THE
SITUATION DEVELOPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EST SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT...SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWER WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HOWEVER...BY MIDNIGHT...PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END...AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION WILL TREND FROM CLOUDY TO PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE LOWER
TEENS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD INTO...OVER...AND THEN EAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL HAVE THE
IMPACT TO KEEP OUR REGION PRECIPITATION FREE WITH A TREND FROM
COLDER CONDITIONS TO MILDER CONDITIONS AS WE START GETTING ON THE
RETURN SIDE SW-W FLOW OF THE HIGH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE TREND
WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH NO PRECIPITATION AND EVEN MILDER
CONDITIONS AS A TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE CENTRAL U.S. AND A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1237 PM EST MONDAY...

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SCT TO BKN MVFR CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WEDGE DOWN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS
TONIGHT. AS SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHWEST...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN NORTH ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR
AT KBCB AND KDAN AFTER 06Z/1AM. LIGHT RAIN...FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. A WINTRY
MIXTURE TUESDAY MORNING WILL TRANSITION TO MAINLY RAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
PERIOD.


EXTENDED FORECAST...

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT ALL OF THE REGION
WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY
AND WINTER PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

FRIDAY SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR WEATHER.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 500 AM EST MONDAY...

THERE IS A CONCERN FOR THE POTENTIAL OF FLOODING BECAUSE OF THE
COMBINATION OF SNOW MELT AND HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE
GREENBRIER...UPPER JAMES RIVER BASINS WHERE UP TO TWO FEET OF SNOW
HAS FALLEN DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.

SOME MELTING HAS OCCURRED AND MORE IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TUESDAY.
FORECAST RAIN AMOUNTS ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MAY REACH 1.5
INCHES. THE COMBINATION OF SNOW MELT AND THIS MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR RISES ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS.
MAJOR FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

THE NEXT WAVE OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SHOULD TRACK ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...WHERE THERE IS LITTLE TO NO SNOWPACK OF CONCERN.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS/PM
HYDROLOGY...AMS/RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 021737
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1237 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND OFF THE COAST THIS
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT...CROSSING THE
OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
TUESDAY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM EST MONDAY...

A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WSR-88D SHOWED A FEW NARROW BANDS OF SNOW
AND RAIN DIMINISHING THIS MORNING. MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO DIMINISH  POPS
THIS MORNING WITH DRY AIR PUNCH AND DOWNSLOPING EFFECT. LEANED
POPS TOWARDS RNK WRF-ARW FOR NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MODIFIED
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON ACCORDING TO SFC
OBS AND MODEL TRENDS.

AS OF 500 AM EST MONDAY...

A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH THE MORNING AND WILL BE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY NOON. MODELS HOLD A MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE FAR WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA
THIS MORNING. PUSH OF DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE ENOUGH
TO END CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND CLEAR OUR MUCH OF THE FOG AND
CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY TODAY AND WEDGES DOWN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS
TONIGHT.

850 MB WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE 45 TO 55 KNOTS WITH PRESSURE
RISES 5 TO 7 MB/6 HOURS THIS MORNING. WILL HAVE WINDS GUSTING JUST
BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL...UP TO 50 MPH THIS MORNING. WINDS DIMINISH
THIS AFTERNOON AND THE TURN TO THE EAST THEN SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS
THE WEDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED. THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK NORTH ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND EASTERN
SLOPES OVERNIGHT.

COLDER AIR COMES IN BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY...BUT WITH SHRINKING
AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION AND SOME SUN IN THE
AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE. AS WIND
DROPS OFF THIS EVENING...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BUT AS CLOUD FILL
BACK IN LATE TONIGHT DROP IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED.

HAVE ADDED PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR
THE TYPICAL UPSLOPE AREA ALONG AND EAST OF THE SOUTHERN BLUE
RIDGE. BUFKIT SHOWED A WARM NOSE AROUND 3000 FT AGL AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM EST MONDAY...

WE WILL START OUT TUESDAY DEALING WITH ANOTHER WEDGE SITUATION
SIMILAR TO WHAT WE JUST WENT THROUGH ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH MORE
SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION TO DEAL WITH. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES DOWN
THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL GET OVER RUN BY MUCH WARMER AIR AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. SOUNDINGS ON BUFKIT SHOW
THE DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO BE SUBSTANTIALLY
DEEP AND COLD AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL FAVOR SOME
SLEET AND HELP KEEP DOWN ICING ACCUMULATIONS FROM FREEZING RAIN AS
PRECIPITATION MOVES IN. AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE...THE WARMER AIR
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GOOD WARMING AND THE LEAST
POTENTIAL FOR ICING FROM THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE AND GRAYSON HIGHLANDS
OF VA INTO THE NW MOUNTAINS OF NC. EXPECTING THE WARMER AIR TO
INTRUDE INTO THE NEW RIVER AND ROANOKE VALLEYS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT THE COLD AIR WILL MODERATE ONLY SLOWLY ACROSS THE
GREENBRIER VALLEY...ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS...AND PIEDMONTS OF NC/VA.
HOWEVER...EVEN THIS SLIGHT TEMPERATURE MODERATION SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO END THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE IT MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THE LATEST QPF
FORECASTS AND EXPECTED SNOW MELT...CURRENT HYDROLOGIC MODELS DO NOT
INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD THREAT BUT SMALLER STREAMS AND
CREEKS ARE STILL A CONCERN. HOWEVER...CONSENSUS TIMING OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS NOT CLEAR CUT AND BELIEVE IT BEST TO WAIT FOR
LATER MODEL RUNS BEFORE DECIDING IF ANY HYDRO WATCHES ARE NEEDED.

AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A BURST OF SNOW AS THE COLD AIR
CATCHES UP TO THE BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION STARTING ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT. IT LOOKS TO BE A FINE LINE BETWEEN WHERE
THE AIR TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT SNOW AND WHERE THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION WILL BE. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION TO RECEIVE SEVERAL
INCHES OF WET SNOW CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE 30 MILES OR SO EITHER
SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT THIS WILL LIKELY CHANGE AS THE
SITUATION DEVELOPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EST SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT...SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWER WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HOWEVER...BY MIDNIGHT...PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END...AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION WILL TREND FROM CLOUDY TO PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE LOWER
TEENS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD INTO...OVER...AND THEN EAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL HAVE THE
IMPACT TO KEEP OUR REGION PRECIPITATION FREE WITH A TREND FROM
COLDER CONDITIONS TO MILDER CONDITIONS AS WE START GETTING ON THE
RETURN SIDE SW-W FLOW OF THE HIGH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE TREND
WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH NO PRECIPITATION AND EVEN MILDER
CONDITIONS AS A TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE CENTRAL U.S. AND A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1237 PM EST MONDAY...

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SCT TO BKN MVFR CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WEDGE DOWN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS
TONIGHT. AS SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHWEST...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN NORTH ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR
AT KBCB AND KDAN AFTER 06Z/1AM. LIGHT RAIN...FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. A WINTRY
MIXTURE TUESDAY MORNING WILL TRANSITION TO MAINLY RAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
PERIOD.


EXTENDED FORECAST...

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT ALL OF THE REGION
WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY
AND WINTER PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

FRIDAY SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR WEATHER.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 500 AM EST MONDAY...

THERE IS A CONCERN FOR THE POTENTIAL OF FLOODING BECAUSE OF THE
COMBINATION OF SNOW MELT AND HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE
GREENBRIER...UPPER JAMES RIVER BASINS WHERE UP TO TWO FEET OF SNOW
HAS FALLEN DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.

SOME MELTING HAS OCCURRED AND MORE IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TUESDAY.
FORECAST RAIN AMOUNTS ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MAY REACH 1.5
INCHES. THE COMBINATION OF SNOW MELT AND THIS MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR RISES ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS.
MAJOR FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

THE NEXT WAVE OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SHOULD TRACK ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...WHERE THERE IS LITTLE TO NO SNOWPACK OF CONCERN.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS/PM
HYDROLOGY...AMS/RAB



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021549
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1049 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FG GONE NOW...AND DRYING WILL CONT THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
XPCG A TEMP SPIKE NEXT FEW HRS BEFORE CAA REALLY TAKES HOLD. POPS
TO BE BLO 14%...AND HI TEMPS FM THE L/M40S ON THE ERN SHORE TO
ARND 50F (WELL) INLAND IN CNTRL/SOUTH CENTRAL VA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1035MB HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA TONITE. XPCT M CLR TO PT
CLDY SKIES TO START OFF THE EVENING. TSCTNS SHOW MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE FA AFTR MIDNITE. SKIES STAY CLR LONG
ENOUGH FOR TMPS TO DROP BELOW FREEZING. LOWS FROM THE L-M20S ERN
SHORE...M-U20S W OF THE BAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE MOISTURE FROM THE NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG
FROM THE W. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WSW WITH A NE INSITU-WEDGE
SETTING UP AT THE SFC AS ANY WRM FRNT SNAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE MTS.
DATA INDICATES PCPN DELAYED UNTIL AFTR 15Z WITH PCPN OVERSPREADING
THE PIEDMONT (MAINLY W OF I95 CORRIDOR) BTWN 15-18Z. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES ALONG WITH SFC TMPS SUGGEST THAT SOME FREEZING RAIN IS
PSBL AT THE ONSET IN AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF RIC...TRANSITIONING TO
PLAIN RAIN DURING THE AFTN. BEST VV`S/OMEGA REMAIN ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF FA TUE AFTN WHERE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE. GIVEN ANTHR WEDGE
EVENT...WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED THE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BUT KEPT
THEM ABOVE FREEZING. HIGHS FROM THE M-U30S NRN HALF OF FA...U30S-
L40S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

WARM FRONT PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. BEST
MOISTURE (THUS HIGHEST POPS) SEEN IN THE EVENING AND ACROSS THE
NORTH...WITH CHC POPS ALL AREAS AFTR MIDNIGHT. MINS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AT 00Z WITH RISING TMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. TMPS BY 12Z WED
RISE INTO THE M40S-L50S.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRNG SSW FLOW.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE SEEN TO CONT PCPN CHCS. WENT AHEAD AND CHANGED
THE PCPN TYPE TO MORE CONVECTIVE RATHER THAN STRATIFORMED. NO
THUNDER EXPECTED AS DATA SHOWS MOST INSTABILITY REMAINING OFFSHORE
INVOF GULF STREAM. ALMOST A SPRING FEEL TO THE DAY AS TMPS FINALLY
RISE ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE U-U50S ERN SHORE...60S MOST AREAS
W OF THE BAY (70 PSBL ACROSS NE NC).

MODELS CONTINUE TO OFFER UP DIFFERENT TIMING SOLUTIONS IN REGARDS
TO THE NEXT ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THE TIMING WILL LIKELY DETERMINE HOW
FAST THE COLDER AIR SWEEPS ACROSS THE FA CHANGING ANY RAIN TO SNOW
AS YET ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO MOVE NE ALONG THE
BNDRY. FOR NOW...FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLN SO I SLOWED THE FROPA DOWN
SEVERAL MORE HRS (TO A PSN ACROSS AKQ`S NRN MOST CNTYS AT 12Z THU).
THIS CHANGE REQUIRES SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO WED NITES TMPS / WX. THE
WARMER SOLN SUGGESTS PCPN REMAINS MAINLY LIQUID THROUGH 12Z THURS.
LOWS IN THE L-M30S NRN MOST CNTYS...U30S-M40S SOUTH. STRNG CAA
ALONG WITH CRASHING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES RESULTS IN RAIN CHANGING
TO SNOW N-S THURSDAY ALONG WITH FALLING TMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THU/THU NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TRICKY FORECAST FOR
THU AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT PRECIP THROUGH THU AND THEN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
THU EVENING. A DECENT JET STREAK OF 150-170KT WILL ALSO ENHANCE
LIFTING POTENTIAL AND AID PRECIP-GENERATION. HIGHS ON THU EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 30S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING BELOW FREEZING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY.
THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPS...FALLING DEWPOINTS AND A COLD
AIRMASS RUNNING INTO REMNANTS OF WARMER AIR SE SHOULD RESULT IN
PRECIP BECOMING TO ALL SNOW FROM NW TO SE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...
WITH A CONTINUATION OF A SNOW/SLEET TRANSITION ZONE AND ALL RAIN
SE OF THIS CHANGE. QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN RATHER HIGH AND SUSPECT THE
ACTUAL AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LESS...WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. SKIES START TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS MOST AREAS AND IN THE
LOW-MID 20S FAR SE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRI. COOL AND
STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP AREAWIDE HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE 30S.
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO FLATTEN FRI NIGHT AND WLY FLOW ALOFT
BEGINS TO MODIFY 850 TEMPS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS
REBOUND INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S SAT AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 50S
SUN. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 AND SUN NIGHT IN
THE LOW-MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CIGS TO CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 13-14Z BEFORE
STARTING TO IMPROVE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND
OFF THE COAST MID/LATE MORNING...HELPING TO IMPROVE CIGS/VSBY TO
VFR ALL TAF SITES BY AROUND 18Z. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. MORE PCPN POSSIBLE TUE
AFTN/NGT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO AND ACRS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...DENSE FOG ADVISORIES HAVE EXPIRED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SW WINDS 10-15KT WILL BECOME WEST THEN
NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT ON THE
BAY/OCEAN JUST BEHIND THE FRONT (HIGHEST NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS)...AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT SCA HEADLINES. WINDS
15 KT OR LESS ON THE RIVERS AND SOUND. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO LOWER ALMOST ALL
SCA`S BY 7PM. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR THE COASTAL ZONES
SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER WHERE 5FT SEAS WILL HOLD ON INTO THE
EVENING AS WINDS TURN TO THE N-NE.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE-E WINDS EXPECTED. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME S-SW AND
INCREASE TO SCA SPEEDS TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED AFTN BEFORE
DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT AND WAVES
BUILD TO 3-4 FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. A BRIEF LULL IN WIND SPEEDS
IS EXPECTED WED NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE REGION
AND TURNS WINDS OUT OF THE N-NW. ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD/SNOWY END TO FEBRUARY 2015...RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND
NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE 1800S...AND TO 1906 AT SALISBURY
MD. SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE FOR
FEBRUARY ARE NOTED BELOW:

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

RICHMOND: 31.4 F (-9.5 FROM AVG). 6TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND
THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.5 F (-10.1 FROM AVG). 3RD COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1934.

SALISBURY: 28.7 F (-9.0 FROM AVG). 4TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1979.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...BMD/MPR
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...BMD/JDM
CLIMATE...











000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021549
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1049 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FG GONE NOW...AND DRYING WILL CONT THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
XPCG A TEMP SPIKE NEXT FEW HRS BEFORE CAA REALLY TAKES HOLD. POPS
TO BE BLO 14%...AND HI TEMPS FM THE L/M40S ON THE ERN SHORE TO
ARND 50F (WELL) INLAND IN CNTRL/SOUTH CENTRAL VA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1035MB HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA TONITE. XPCT M CLR TO PT
CLDY SKIES TO START OFF THE EVENING. TSCTNS SHOW MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE FA AFTR MIDNITE. SKIES STAY CLR LONG
ENOUGH FOR TMPS TO DROP BELOW FREEZING. LOWS FROM THE L-M20S ERN
SHORE...M-U20S W OF THE BAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE MOISTURE FROM THE NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG
FROM THE W. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WSW WITH A NE INSITU-WEDGE
SETTING UP AT THE SFC AS ANY WRM FRNT SNAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE MTS.
DATA INDICATES PCPN DELAYED UNTIL AFTR 15Z WITH PCPN OVERSPREADING
THE PIEDMONT (MAINLY W OF I95 CORRIDOR) BTWN 15-18Z. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES ALONG WITH SFC TMPS SUGGEST THAT SOME FREEZING RAIN IS
PSBL AT THE ONSET IN AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF RIC...TRANSITIONING TO
PLAIN RAIN DURING THE AFTN. BEST VV`S/OMEGA REMAIN ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF FA TUE AFTN WHERE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE. GIVEN ANTHR WEDGE
EVENT...WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED THE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BUT KEPT
THEM ABOVE FREEZING. HIGHS FROM THE M-U30S NRN HALF OF FA...U30S-
L40S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

WARM FRONT PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. BEST
MOISTURE (THUS HIGHEST POPS) SEEN IN THE EVENING AND ACROSS THE
NORTH...WITH CHC POPS ALL AREAS AFTR MIDNIGHT. MINS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AT 00Z WITH RISING TMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. TMPS BY 12Z WED
RISE INTO THE M40S-L50S.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRNG SSW FLOW.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE SEEN TO CONT PCPN CHCS. WENT AHEAD AND CHANGED
THE PCPN TYPE TO MORE CONVECTIVE RATHER THAN STRATIFORMED. NO
THUNDER EXPECTED AS DATA SHOWS MOST INSTABILITY REMAINING OFFSHORE
INVOF GULF STREAM. ALMOST A SPRING FEEL TO THE DAY AS TMPS FINALLY
RISE ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE U-U50S ERN SHORE...60S MOST AREAS
W OF THE BAY (70 PSBL ACROSS NE NC).

MODELS CONTINUE TO OFFER UP DIFFERENT TIMING SOLUTIONS IN REGARDS
TO THE NEXT ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THE TIMING WILL LIKELY DETERMINE HOW
FAST THE COLDER AIR SWEEPS ACROSS THE FA CHANGING ANY RAIN TO SNOW
AS YET ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO MOVE NE ALONG THE
BNDRY. FOR NOW...FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLN SO I SLOWED THE FROPA DOWN
SEVERAL MORE HRS (TO A PSN ACROSS AKQ`S NRN MOST CNTYS AT 12Z THU).
THIS CHANGE REQUIRES SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO WED NITES TMPS / WX. THE
WARMER SOLN SUGGESTS PCPN REMAINS MAINLY LIQUID THROUGH 12Z THURS.
LOWS IN THE L-M30S NRN MOST CNTYS...U30S-M40S SOUTH. STRNG CAA
ALONG WITH CRASHING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES RESULTS IN RAIN CHANGING
TO SNOW N-S THURSDAY ALONG WITH FALLING TMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THU/THU NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TRICKY FORECAST FOR
THU AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT PRECIP THROUGH THU AND THEN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
THU EVENING. A DECENT JET STREAK OF 150-170KT WILL ALSO ENHANCE
LIFTING POTENTIAL AND AID PRECIP-GENERATION. HIGHS ON THU EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 30S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING BELOW FREEZING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY.
THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPS...FALLING DEWPOINTS AND A COLD
AIRMASS RUNNING INTO REMNANTS OF WARMER AIR SE SHOULD RESULT IN
PRECIP BECOMING TO ALL SNOW FROM NW TO SE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...
WITH A CONTINUATION OF A SNOW/SLEET TRANSITION ZONE AND ALL RAIN
SE OF THIS CHANGE. QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN RATHER HIGH AND SUSPECT THE
ACTUAL AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LESS...WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. SKIES START TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS MOST AREAS AND IN THE
LOW-MID 20S FAR SE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRI. COOL AND
STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP AREAWIDE HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE 30S.
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO FLATTEN FRI NIGHT AND WLY FLOW ALOFT
BEGINS TO MODIFY 850 TEMPS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS
REBOUND INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S SAT AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 50S
SUN. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 AND SUN NIGHT IN
THE LOW-MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CIGS TO CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 13-14Z BEFORE
STARTING TO IMPROVE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND
OFF THE COAST MID/LATE MORNING...HELPING TO IMPROVE CIGS/VSBY TO
VFR ALL TAF SITES BY AROUND 18Z. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. MORE PCPN POSSIBLE TUE
AFTN/NGT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO AND ACRS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...DENSE FOG ADVISORIES HAVE EXPIRED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SW WINDS 10-15KT WILL BECOME WEST THEN
NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT ON THE
BAY/OCEAN JUST BEHIND THE FRONT (HIGHEST NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS)...AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT SCA HEADLINES. WINDS
15 KT OR LESS ON THE RIVERS AND SOUND. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO LOWER ALMOST ALL
SCA`S BY 7PM. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR THE COASTAL ZONES
SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER WHERE 5FT SEAS WILL HOLD ON INTO THE
EVENING AS WINDS TURN TO THE N-NE.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE-E WINDS EXPECTED. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME S-SW AND
INCREASE TO SCA SPEEDS TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED AFTN BEFORE
DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT AND WAVES
BUILD TO 3-4 FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. A BRIEF LULL IN WIND SPEEDS
IS EXPECTED WED NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE REGION
AND TURNS WINDS OUT OF THE N-NW. ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD/SNOWY END TO FEBRUARY 2015...RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND
NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE 1800S...AND TO 1906 AT SALISBURY
MD. SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE FOR
FEBRUARY ARE NOTED BELOW:

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

RICHMOND: 31.4 F (-9.5 FROM AVG). 6TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND
THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.5 F (-10.1 FROM AVG). 3RD COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1934.

SALISBURY: 28.7 F (-9.0 FROM AVG). 4TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1979.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...BMD/MPR
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...BMD/JDM
CLIMATE...










000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021549
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1049 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FG GONE NOW...AND DRYING WILL CONT THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
XPCG A TEMP SPIKE NEXT FEW HRS BEFORE CAA REALLY TAKES HOLD. POPS
TO BE BLO 14%...AND HI TEMPS FM THE L/M40S ON THE ERN SHORE TO
ARND 50F (WELL) INLAND IN CNTRL/SOUTH CENTRAL VA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1035MB HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA TONITE. XPCT M CLR TO PT
CLDY SKIES TO START OFF THE EVENING. TSCTNS SHOW MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE FA AFTR MIDNITE. SKIES STAY CLR LONG
ENOUGH FOR TMPS TO DROP BELOW FREEZING. LOWS FROM THE L-M20S ERN
SHORE...M-U20S W OF THE BAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE MOISTURE FROM THE NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG
FROM THE W. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WSW WITH A NE INSITU-WEDGE
SETTING UP AT THE SFC AS ANY WRM FRNT SNAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE MTS.
DATA INDICATES PCPN DELAYED UNTIL AFTR 15Z WITH PCPN OVERSPREADING
THE PIEDMONT (MAINLY W OF I95 CORRIDOR) BTWN 15-18Z. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES ALONG WITH SFC TMPS SUGGEST THAT SOME FREEZING RAIN IS
PSBL AT THE ONSET IN AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF RIC...TRANSITIONING TO
PLAIN RAIN DURING THE AFTN. BEST VV`S/OMEGA REMAIN ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF FA TUE AFTN WHERE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE. GIVEN ANTHR WEDGE
EVENT...WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED THE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BUT KEPT
THEM ABOVE FREEZING. HIGHS FROM THE M-U30S NRN HALF OF FA...U30S-
L40S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

WARM FRONT PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. BEST
MOISTURE (THUS HIGHEST POPS) SEEN IN THE EVENING AND ACROSS THE
NORTH...WITH CHC POPS ALL AREAS AFTR MIDNIGHT. MINS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AT 00Z WITH RISING TMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. TMPS BY 12Z WED
RISE INTO THE M40S-L50S.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRNG SSW FLOW.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE SEEN TO CONT PCPN CHCS. WENT AHEAD AND CHANGED
THE PCPN TYPE TO MORE CONVECTIVE RATHER THAN STRATIFORMED. NO
THUNDER EXPECTED AS DATA SHOWS MOST INSTABILITY REMAINING OFFSHORE
INVOF GULF STREAM. ALMOST A SPRING FEEL TO THE DAY AS TMPS FINALLY
RISE ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE U-U50S ERN SHORE...60S MOST AREAS
W OF THE BAY (70 PSBL ACROSS NE NC).

MODELS CONTINUE TO OFFER UP DIFFERENT TIMING SOLUTIONS IN REGARDS
TO THE NEXT ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THE TIMING WILL LIKELY DETERMINE HOW
FAST THE COLDER AIR SWEEPS ACROSS THE FA CHANGING ANY RAIN TO SNOW
AS YET ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO MOVE NE ALONG THE
BNDRY. FOR NOW...FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLN SO I SLOWED THE FROPA DOWN
SEVERAL MORE HRS (TO A PSN ACROSS AKQ`S NRN MOST CNTYS AT 12Z THU).
THIS CHANGE REQUIRES SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO WED NITES TMPS / WX. THE
WARMER SOLN SUGGESTS PCPN REMAINS MAINLY LIQUID THROUGH 12Z THURS.
LOWS IN THE L-M30S NRN MOST CNTYS...U30S-M40S SOUTH. STRNG CAA
ALONG WITH CRASHING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES RESULTS IN RAIN CHANGING
TO SNOW N-S THURSDAY ALONG WITH FALLING TMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THU/THU NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TRICKY FORECAST FOR
THU AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT PRECIP THROUGH THU AND THEN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
THU EVENING. A DECENT JET STREAK OF 150-170KT WILL ALSO ENHANCE
LIFTING POTENTIAL AND AID PRECIP-GENERATION. HIGHS ON THU EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 30S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING BELOW FREEZING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY.
THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPS...FALLING DEWPOINTS AND A COLD
AIRMASS RUNNING INTO REMNANTS OF WARMER AIR SE SHOULD RESULT IN
PRECIP BECOMING TO ALL SNOW FROM NW TO SE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...
WITH A CONTINUATION OF A SNOW/SLEET TRANSITION ZONE AND ALL RAIN
SE OF THIS CHANGE. QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN RATHER HIGH AND SUSPECT THE
ACTUAL AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LESS...WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. SKIES START TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS MOST AREAS AND IN THE
LOW-MID 20S FAR SE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRI. COOL AND
STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP AREAWIDE HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE 30S.
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO FLATTEN FRI NIGHT AND WLY FLOW ALOFT
BEGINS TO MODIFY 850 TEMPS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS
REBOUND INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S SAT AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 50S
SUN. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 AND SUN NIGHT IN
THE LOW-MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CIGS TO CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 13-14Z BEFORE
STARTING TO IMPROVE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND
OFF THE COAST MID/LATE MORNING...HELPING TO IMPROVE CIGS/VSBY TO
VFR ALL TAF SITES BY AROUND 18Z. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. MORE PCPN POSSIBLE TUE
AFTN/NGT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO AND ACRS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...DENSE FOG ADVISORIES HAVE EXPIRED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SW WINDS 10-15KT WILL BECOME WEST THEN
NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT ON THE
BAY/OCEAN JUST BEHIND THE FRONT (HIGHEST NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS)...AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT SCA HEADLINES. WINDS
15 KT OR LESS ON THE RIVERS AND SOUND. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO LOWER ALMOST ALL
SCA`S BY 7PM. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR THE COASTAL ZONES
SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER WHERE 5FT SEAS WILL HOLD ON INTO THE
EVENING AS WINDS TURN TO THE N-NE.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE-E WINDS EXPECTED. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME S-SW AND
INCREASE TO SCA SPEEDS TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED AFTN BEFORE
DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT AND WAVES
BUILD TO 3-4 FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. A BRIEF LULL IN WIND SPEEDS
IS EXPECTED WED NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE REGION
AND TURNS WINDS OUT OF THE N-NW. ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD/SNOWY END TO FEBRUARY 2015...RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND
NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE 1800S...AND TO 1906 AT SALISBURY
MD. SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE FOR
FEBRUARY ARE NOTED BELOW:

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

RICHMOND: 31.4 F (-9.5 FROM AVG). 6TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND
THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.5 F (-10.1 FROM AVG). 3RD COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1934.

SALISBURY: 28.7 F (-9.0 FROM AVG). 4TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1979.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...BMD/MPR
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...BMD/JDM
CLIMATE...











000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021549
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1049 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FG GONE NOW...AND DRYING WILL CONT THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
XPCG A TEMP SPIKE NEXT FEW HRS BEFORE CAA REALLY TAKES HOLD. POPS
TO BE BLO 14%...AND HI TEMPS FM THE L/M40S ON THE ERN SHORE TO
ARND 50F (WELL) INLAND IN CNTRL/SOUTH CENTRAL VA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1035MB HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA TONITE. XPCT M CLR TO PT
CLDY SKIES TO START OFF THE EVENING. TSCTNS SHOW MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE FA AFTR MIDNITE. SKIES STAY CLR LONG
ENOUGH FOR TMPS TO DROP BELOW FREEZING. LOWS FROM THE L-M20S ERN
SHORE...M-U20S W OF THE BAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE MOISTURE FROM THE NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG
FROM THE W. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WSW WITH A NE INSITU-WEDGE
SETTING UP AT THE SFC AS ANY WRM FRNT SNAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE MTS.
DATA INDICATES PCPN DELAYED UNTIL AFTR 15Z WITH PCPN OVERSPREADING
THE PIEDMONT (MAINLY W OF I95 CORRIDOR) BTWN 15-18Z. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES ALONG WITH SFC TMPS SUGGEST THAT SOME FREEZING RAIN IS
PSBL AT THE ONSET IN AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF RIC...TRANSITIONING TO
PLAIN RAIN DURING THE AFTN. BEST VV`S/OMEGA REMAIN ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF FA TUE AFTN WHERE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE. GIVEN ANTHR WEDGE
EVENT...WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED THE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BUT KEPT
THEM ABOVE FREEZING. HIGHS FROM THE M-U30S NRN HALF OF FA...U30S-
L40S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

WARM FRONT PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. BEST
MOISTURE (THUS HIGHEST POPS) SEEN IN THE EVENING AND ACROSS THE
NORTH...WITH CHC POPS ALL AREAS AFTR MIDNIGHT. MINS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AT 00Z WITH RISING TMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. TMPS BY 12Z WED
RISE INTO THE M40S-L50S.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRNG SSW FLOW.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE SEEN TO CONT PCPN CHCS. WENT AHEAD AND CHANGED
THE PCPN TYPE TO MORE CONVECTIVE RATHER THAN STRATIFORMED. NO
THUNDER EXPECTED AS DATA SHOWS MOST INSTABILITY REMAINING OFFSHORE
INVOF GULF STREAM. ALMOST A SPRING FEEL TO THE DAY AS TMPS FINALLY
RISE ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE U-U50S ERN SHORE...60S MOST AREAS
W OF THE BAY (70 PSBL ACROSS NE NC).

MODELS CONTINUE TO OFFER UP DIFFERENT TIMING SOLUTIONS IN REGARDS
TO THE NEXT ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THE TIMING WILL LIKELY DETERMINE HOW
FAST THE COLDER AIR SWEEPS ACROSS THE FA CHANGING ANY RAIN TO SNOW
AS YET ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO MOVE NE ALONG THE
BNDRY. FOR NOW...FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLN SO I SLOWED THE FROPA DOWN
SEVERAL MORE HRS (TO A PSN ACROSS AKQ`S NRN MOST CNTYS AT 12Z THU).
THIS CHANGE REQUIRES SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO WED NITES TMPS / WX. THE
WARMER SOLN SUGGESTS PCPN REMAINS MAINLY LIQUID THROUGH 12Z THURS.
LOWS IN THE L-M30S NRN MOST CNTYS...U30S-M40S SOUTH. STRNG CAA
ALONG WITH CRASHING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES RESULTS IN RAIN CHANGING
TO SNOW N-S THURSDAY ALONG WITH FALLING TMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THU/THU NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TRICKY FORECAST FOR
THU AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT PRECIP THROUGH THU AND THEN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
THU EVENING. A DECENT JET STREAK OF 150-170KT WILL ALSO ENHANCE
LIFTING POTENTIAL AND AID PRECIP-GENERATION. HIGHS ON THU EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 30S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING BELOW FREEZING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY.
THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPS...FALLING DEWPOINTS AND A COLD
AIRMASS RUNNING INTO REMNANTS OF WARMER AIR SE SHOULD RESULT IN
PRECIP BECOMING TO ALL SNOW FROM NW TO SE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...
WITH A CONTINUATION OF A SNOW/SLEET TRANSITION ZONE AND ALL RAIN
SE OF THIS CHANGE. QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN RATHER HIGH AND SUSPECT THE
ACTUAL AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LESS...WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. SKIES START TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS MOST AREAS AND IN THE
LOW-MID 20S FAR SE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRI. COOL AND
STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP AREAWIDE HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE 30S.
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO FLATTEN FRI NIGHT AND WLY FLOW ALOFT
BEGINS TO MODIFY 850 TEMPS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS
REBOUND INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S SAT AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 50S
SUN. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 AND SUN NIGHT IN
THE LOW-MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CIGS TO CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 13-14Z BEFORE
STARTING TO IMPROVE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND
OFF THE COAST MID/LATE MORNING...HELPING TO IMPROVE CIGS/VSBY TO
VFR ALL TAF SITES BY AROUND 18Z. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. MORE PCPN POSSIBLE TUE
AFTN/NGT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO AND ACRS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...DENSE FOG ADVISORIES HAVE EXPIRED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SW WINDS 10-15KT WILL BECOME WEST THEN
NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT ON THE
BAY/OCEAN JUST BEHIND THE FRONT (HIGHEST NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS)...AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT SCA HEADLINES. WINDS
15 KT OR LESS ON THE RIVERS AND SOUND. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO LOWER ALMOST ALL
SCA`S BY 7PM. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR THE COASTAL ZONES
SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER WHERE 5FT SEAS WILL HOLD ON INTO THE
EVENING AS WINDS TURN TO THE N-NE.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE-E WINDS EXPECTED. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME S-SW AND
INCREASE TO SCA SPEEDS TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED AFTN BEFORE
DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT AND WAVES
BUILD TO 3-4 FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. A BRIEF LULL IN WIND SPEEDS
IS EXPECTED WED NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE REGION
AND TURNS WINDS OUT OF THE N-NW. ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD/SNOWY END TO FEBRUARY 2015...RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND
NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE 1800S...AND TO 1906 AT SALISBURY
MD. SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE FOR
FEBRUARY ARE NOTED BELOW:

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

RICHMOND: 31.4 F (-9.5 FROM AVG). 6TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND
THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.5 F (-10.1 FROM AVG). 3RD COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1934.

SALISBURY: 28.7 F (-9.0 FROM AVG). 4TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1979.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...BMD/MPR
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...BMD/JDM
CLIMATE...










000
FXUS61 KLWX 021524 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1024 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN WILL BUILD IN THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY
COLD HIGH PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS OF 15Z.
WINDS HAVE BACKED TO THE NORTHWEST WITH DECENT MIXING ONGOING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EARLIER PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS THE
METRO AREAS...CENTRAL VA AND SOUTHERN MD HAS MIXED OUT AND SKIES
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A CLEARING TREND THE REMAINDER OF THIS
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OUT WEST...CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE DUE TO UPSLOPE COMPONENT WITH SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.

TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT OF A CHALLENGE TODAY. COLD FRONT HAS
CROSSED THE BULK OF THE REGION BUT NORTHWEST WIND COMPONENT WILL
AID IN MIXING AND A DOWNSLOPE DIRECTION. TEMPERATURES MAY WARM A
FEW DEGREES INTO THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THEY TREND DOWNWARD LATER
IN THE DAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE BREEZY SIDE WITH
SPEEDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE WITH A FEW 25-30 MPH GUSTS
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRO-PA.

WINDS WILL DROP OFF THIS EVENING AND SO WILL THE TEMPERATURES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF INTO THE LOW 20S IN MOST
LOCATIONS EXCEPT A FEW TEENS OUT WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS TUESDAY MORNING
AS THE NEXT SYSTEMS APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
LOCKED IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE WHILE WARM ADVECTION HEADS TOWARDS
THE MID- ATLANTIC. SIMILAR TO SUNDAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
LEAD TO PRECIPITATION TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS SNOW BEFORE QUICKLY CHANGING
TO IP/FZRA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FCST MAX TEMPS FOR TUESDAY RANGE
FROM THE LOW 30S IN NE MD TO THE MID 30S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
FURTHER WEST...TEMPS SHOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING IN THE SHENANDOAH
VALLEY AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LESS THAN A TENTH INCH OF ICE IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR AREAS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND SOUTHERN MD
WHERE TEMPS MAY REACH THE MID 30S.

THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK WILL BE VERY ACTIVE WITH SUBSTANTIAL
SWINGS IN THE WEATHER. WHAT HAPPENS TUESDAY EVENING MAY BE DEPENDENT
ON HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES CAN WARM ON TUESDAY. STRONG WAA WILL BE
TAKING PLACE ALOFT...BUT AS USUAL THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH
TRANSLATES TO THE SFC...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE THE COLDER AIR IS
WEDGED IN. BY TUESDAY EVENING THIS MAY ONLY BE IN THE MOST FAVORED
AREAS ADJACENT TO THE NORTHERN BLUE RIDGE AND ACROSS NORTHERN MD.
LEFT RA-OR-FZRA WORDING IN THESE AREAS FOR THE EVENING. CURRENT
FORECAST CALLS FOR WARM AIR TO WIN OUT WITH RISING TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT...BUT THIS IS FAR FROM CERTAIN IN THE AREAS MENTIONED
ABOVE. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD BE NEAR 50F
OR GREATER BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AREA STILL FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR ON WED WITH HIGHS
INTO THE 50S EXCEPT N-CNTL/NE MD. SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY THROUGHOUT
THE DAY IN A BROAD AREA OF MOIST ASCENT. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THE
GREATER MOISTURE MAY REMAIN SW OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS TIME...WHICH
WOULD REDUCE THE THREAT FOR ANY FLOODING.

WED NIGHT/THU FORECAST IS QUITE UNCERTAIN AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
SLIPS THROUGH THE AREA. IT WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO A STRONG UPPER
JET...DENOTING THE TIGHT LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. AT LEAST ONE
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH
COULD OCCUR AFTER COLDER AIR BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA. HAVE
BROADBRUSHED RA/SN WORDING BASED ON FORECAST TEMPS. A LOT OF
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLAY IN THE FRONTAL ZONE...WHICH COULD PRESENT
ACCUMULATING SNOW. AGREE WITH WPC GUIDANCE THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE N/W OF DC...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN
THE WV MOUNTAINS. CERTAINLY A SITUATION TO MONITOR.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WORKS IN FULLY BY THU NIGHT...WITH LOWS
DROPPING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT GRADUALLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES...PERHAPS PUSHING CLIMO BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A
MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL SITES INTO TONIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TODAY WITH SPEEDS IN THE 10-20 KT
RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE BEHIDN THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. SCATTERED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY BUT
MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SW. -SNPL BECOMING FZRA WILL IMPACT
THE TERMINALS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR ICE
ACCUMULATION WILL BE AT BWI-MTN.

VSBY/CIG REDUCTIONS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH RAIN AT TIMES. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ALSO EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY. RAIN MAY CHANGE TO SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE WATERS AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH. WIND GUSTS IN THE 18-25 KT RANGE WILL BE COMMON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING.

SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AND AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS COLD AIR PUSHES IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING THE POTENTIAL OF MIDWEEK FLOODING IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. LIQUID PRECIP FCST FROM WPC PUTS MUCH OF
THE FCST AREA IN A MINIMA FOR AMOUNTS...AROUND AN INCH OR LESS IN
MANY AREAS. WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 50S ON
WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME...POSSIBLY A LOT OF...MELTING OF THE
EXISTING SNOWPACK...WHICH COMPUTER MODELS AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
CONTAINS ANYWHERE FROM 3/4 INCH TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENT. THIS COMBINATION MAY LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING AS THE RAIN
FALLS ON WEDNESDAY.

ALTHOUGH RIVER ICE IS NOT ESPECIALLY THICK...IT WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL ROLE IN AFFECTING RUNOFF. ALSO...PLOWED SNOW
IS LIKELY COVERING SOME OF THE DRAINS OUT THERE...WHICH COULD CAUSE
MORE POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING THAN WOULD OTHERWISE USUALLY BE
EXPECTED.

WORTH NOTING...CURRENT FORECAST RAIN TOTALS ARE ON THE LOWER SIDE OF
THE ENSEMBLE SUITES OF THE GEFS AND SREF. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE FORECAST FOR UPDATES AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...ADS/HAS
LONG TERM...ADS
AVIATION...ADS/KRW
MARINE...ADS/KRW
HYDROLOGY...JE



000
FXUS61 KLWX 021524 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1024 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN WILL BUILD IN THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY
COLD HIGH PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS OF 15Z.
WINDS HAVE BACKED TO THE NORTHWEST WITH DECENT MIXING ONGOING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EARLIER PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS THE
METRO AREAS...CENTRAL VA AND SOUTHERN MD HAS MIXED OUT AND SKIES
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A CLEARING TREND THE REMAINDER OF THIS
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OUT WEST...CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE DUE TO UPSLOPE COMPONENT WITH SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.

TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT OF A CHALLENGE TODAY. COLD FRONT HAS
CROSSED THE BULK OF THE REGION BUT NORTHWEST WIND COMPONENT WILL
AID IN MIXING AND A DOWNSLOPE DIRECTION. TEMPERATURES MAY WARM A
FEW DEGREES INTO THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THEY TREND DOWNWARD LATER
IN THE DAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE BREEZY SIDE WITH
SPEEDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE WITH A FEW 25-30 MPH GUSTS
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRO-PA.

WINDS WILL DROP OFF THIS EVENING AND SO WILL THE TEMPERATURES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF INTO THE LOW 20S IN MOST
LOCATIONS EXCEPT A FEW TEENS OUT WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS TUESDAY MORNING
AS THE NEXT SYSTEMS APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
LOCKED IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE WHILE WARM ADVECTION HEADS TOWARDS
THE MID- ATLANTIC. SIMILAR TO SUNDAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
LEAD TO PRECIPITATION TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS SNOW BEFORE QUICKLY CHANGING
TO IP/FZRA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FCST MAX TEMPS FOR TUESDAY RANGE
FROM THE LOW 30S IN NE MD TO THE MID 30S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
FURTHER WEST...TEMPS SHOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING IN THE SHENANDOAH
VALLEY AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LESS THAN A TENTH INCH OF ICE IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR AREAS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND SOUTHERN MD
WHERE TEMPS MAY REACH THE MID 30S.

THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK WILL BE VERY ACTIVE WITH SUBSTANTIAL
SWINGS IN THE WEATHER. WHAT HAPPENS TUESDAY EVENING MAY BE DEPENDENT
ON HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES CAN WARM ON TUESDAY. STRONG WAA WILL BE
TAKING PLACE ALOFT...BUT AS USUAL THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH
TRANSLATES TO THE SFC...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE THE COLDER AIR IS
WEDGED IN. BY TUESDAY EVENING THIS MAY ONLY BE IN THE MOST FAVORED
AREAS ADJACENT TO THE NORTHERN BLUE RIDGE AND ACROSS NORTHERN MD.
LEFT RA-OR-FZRA WORDING IN THESE AREAS FOR THE EVENING. CURRENT
FORECAST CALLS FOR WARM AIR TO WIN OUT WITH RISING TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT...BUT THIS IS FAR FROM CERTAIN IN THE AREAS MENTIONED
ABOVE. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD BE NEAR 50F
OR GREATER BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AREA STILL FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR ON WED WITH HIGHS
INTO THE 50S EXCEPT N-CNTL/NE MD. SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY THROUGHOUT
THE DAY IN A BROAD AREA OF MOIST ASCENT. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THE
GREATER MOISTURE MAY REMAIN SW OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS TIME...WHICH
WOULD REDUCE THE THREAT FOR ANY FLOODING.

WED NIGHT/THU FORECAST IS QUITE UNCERTAIN AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
SLIPS THROUGH THE AREA. IT WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO A STRONG UPPER
JET...DENOTING THE TIGHT LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. AT LEAST ONE
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH
COULD OCCUR AFTER COLDER AIR BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA. HAVE
BROADBRUSHED RA/SN WORDING BASED ON FORECAST TEMPS. A LOT OF
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLAY IN THE FRONTAL ZONE...WHICH COULD PRESENT
ACCUMULATING SNOW. AGREE WITH WPC GUIDANCE THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE N/W OF DC...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN
THE WV MOUNTAINS. CERTAINLY A SITUATION TO MONITOR.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WORKS IN FULLY BY THU NIGHT...WITH LOWS
DROPPING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT GRADUALLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES...PERHAPS PUSHING CLIMO BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A
MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL SITES INTO TONIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TODAY WITH SPEEDS IN THE 10-20 KT
RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE BEHIDN THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. SCATTERED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY BUT
MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SW. -SNPL BECOMING FZRA WILL IMPACT
THE TERMINALS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR ICE
ACCUMULATION WILL BE AT BWI-MTN.

VSBY/CIG REDUCTIONS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH RAIN AT TIMES. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ALSO EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY. RAIN MAY CHANGE TO SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE WATERS AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH. WIND GUSTS IN THE 18-25 KT RANGE WILL BE COMMON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING.

SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AND AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS COLD AIR PUSHES IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING THE POTENTIAL OF MIDWEEK FLOODING IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. LIQUID PRECIP FCST FROM WPC PUTS MUCH OF
THE FCST AREA IN A MINIMA FOR AMOUNTS...AROUND AN INCH OR LESS IN
MANY AREAS. WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 50S ON
WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME...POSSIBLY A LOT OF...MELTING OF THE
EXISTING SNOWPACK...WHICH COMPUTER MODELS AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
CONTAINS ANYWHERE FROM 3/4 INCH TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENT. THIS COMBINATION MAY LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING AS THE RAIN
FALLS ON WEDNESDAY.

ALTHOUGH RIVER ICE IS NOT ESPECIALLY THICK...IT WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL ROLE IN AFFECTING RUNOFF. ALSO...PLOWED SNOW
IS LIKELY COVERING SOME OF THE DRAINS OUT THERE...WHICH COULD CAUSE
MORE POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING THAN WOULD OTHERWISE USUALLY BE
EXPECTED.

WORTH NOTING...CURRENT FORECAST RAIN TOTALS ARE ON THE LOWER SIDE OF
THE ENSEMBLE SUITES OF THE GEFS AND SREF. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE FORECAST FOR UPDATES AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...ADS/HAS
LONG TERM...ADS
AVIATION...ADS/KRW
MARINE...ADS/KRW
HYDROLOGY...JE




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021501
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1001 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS MORNING...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REMOVED MOST CTYS ALG-E OF I 95 FM DENSE FG ADVISORY DUE TO VSBYS
SUFFICIENTLY ABV THRESHOLD. KEPT AREAS FM THE PIEDMONT IN
CNTRL/SCNTRL VA TO NE NC WHERE VSBYS IN ENOUGH PLACES AVG 1/2 MI
OR LESS. CDFNT ABT TO ENTER WRN PORTION OF FA...AND WILL SCOUR OUT
THE FG AND LO CLDS THROUGH LT MRNG/MIDDAY AS IT CONTS TO THE CST.
LWRD POPS INLAND...KEEPING 30-40% CHC RA FM ERN VA TO NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1035MB HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA TONITE. XPCT M CLR TO PT
CLDY SKIES TO START OFF THE EVENING. TSCTNS SHOW MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE FA AFTR MIDNITE. SKIES STAY CLR LONG
ENOUGH FOR TMPS TO DROP BELOW FREEZING. LOWS FROM THE L-M20S ERN
SHORE...M-U20S W OF THE BAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE MOISTURE FROM THE NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG
FROM THE W. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WSW WITH A NE INSITU-WEDGE
SETTING UP AT THE SFC AS ANY WRM FRNT SNAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE MTS.
DATA INDICATES PCPN DELAYED UNTIL AFTR 15Z WITH PCPN OVERSPREADING
THE PIEDMONT (MAINLY W OF I95 CORRIDOR) BTWN 15-18Z. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES ALONG WITH SFC TMPS SUGGEST THAT SOME FREEZING RAIN IS
PSBL AT THE ONSET IN AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF RIC...TRANSITIONING TO
PLAIN RAIN DURING THE AFTN. BEST VV`S/OMEGA REMAIN ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF FA TUE AFTN WHERE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE. GIVEN ANTHR WEDGE
EVENT...WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED THE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BUT KEPT
THEM ABOVE FREEZING. HIGHS FROM THE M-U30S NRN HALF OF FA...U30S-
L40S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

WARM FRONT PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. BEST
MOISTURE (THUS HIGHEST POPS) SEEN IN THE EVENING AND ACROSS THE
NORTH...WITH CHC POPS ALL AREAS AFTR MIDNIGHT. MINS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AT 00Z WITH RISING TMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. TMPS BY 12Z WED
RISE INTO THE M40S-L50S.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRNG SSW FLOW.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE SEEN TO CONT PCPN CHCS. WENT AHEAD AND CHANGED
THE PCPN TYPE TO MORE CONVECTIVE RATHER THAN STRATIFORMED. NO
THUNDER EXPECTED AS DATA SHOWS MOST INSTABILITY REMAINING OFFSHORE
INVOF GULF STREAM. ALMOST A SPRING FEEL TO THE DAY AS TMPS FINALLY
RISE ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE U-U50S ERN SHORE...60S MOST AREAS
W OF THE BAY (70 PSBL ACROSS NE NC).

MODELS CONTINUE TO OFFER UP DIFFERENT TIMING SOLUTIONS IN REGARDS
TO THE NEXT ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THE TIMING WILL LIKELY DETERMINE HOW
FAST THE COLDER AIR SWEEPS ACROSS THE FA CHANGING ANY RAIN TO SNOW
AS YET ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO MOVE NE ALONG THE
BNDRY. FOR NOW...FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLN SO I SLOWED THE FROPA DOWN
SEVERAL MORE HRS (TO A PSN ACROSS AKQ`S NRN MOST CNTYS AT 12Z THU).
THIS CHANGE REQUIRES SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO WED NITES TMPS / WX. THE
WARMER SOLN SUGGESTS PCPN REMAINS MAINLY LIQUID THROUGH 12Z THURS.
LOWS IN THE L-M30S NRN MOST CNTYS...U30S-M40S SOUTH. STRNG CAA
ALONG WITH CRASHING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES RESULTS IN RAIN CHANGING
TO SNOW N-S THURSDAY ALONG WITH FALLING TMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THU/THU NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TRICKY FORECAST FOR
THU AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT PRECIP THROUGH THU AND THEN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
THU EVENING. A DECENT JET STREAK OF 150-170KT WILL ALSO ENHANCE
LIFTING POTENTIAL AND AID PRECIP-GENERATION. HIGHS ON THU EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 30S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING BELOW FREEZING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY.
THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPS...FALLING DEWPOINTS AND A COLD
AIRMASS RUNNING INTO REMNANTS OF WARMER AIR SE SHOULD RESULT IN
PRECIP BECOMING TO ALL SNOW FROM NW TO SE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...
WITH A CONTINUATION OF A SNOW/SLEET TRANSITION ZONE AND ALL RAIN
SE OF THIS CHANGE. QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN RATHER HIGH AND SUSPECT THE
ACTUAL AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LESS...WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. SKIES START TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS MOST AREAS AND IN THE
LOW-MID 20S FAR SE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRI. COOL AND
STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP AREAWIDE HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE 30S.
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO FLATTEN FRI NIGHT AND WLY FLOW ALOFT
BEGINS TO MODIFY 850 TEMPS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS
REBOUND INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S SAT AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 50S
SUN. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 AND SUN NIGHT IN
THE LOW-MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CIGS TO CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 13-14Z BEFORE
STARTING TO IMPROVE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND
OFF THE COAST MID/LATE MORNING...HELPING TO IMPROVE CIGS/VSBY TO
VFR ALL TAF SITES BY AROUND 18Z. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. MORE PCPN POSSIBLE TUE
AFTN/NGT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO AND ACRS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...DENSE FOG ADVISORIES HAVE EXPIRED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SW WINDS 10-15KT WILL BECOME WEST THEN
NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT ON THE
BAY/OCEAN JUST BEHIND THE FRONT (HIGHEST NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS)...AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT SCA HEADLINES. WINDS
15 KT OR LESS ON THE RIVERS AND SOUND. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO LOWER ALMOST ALL
SCA`S BY 7PM. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR THE COASTAL ZONES
SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER WHERE 5FT SEAS WILL HOLD ON INTO THE
EVENING AS WINDS TURN TO THE N-NE.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE-E WINDS EXPECTED. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME S-SW AND
INCREASE TO SCA SPEEDS TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED AFTN BEFORE
DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT AND WAVES
BUILD TO 3-4 FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. A BRIEF LULL IN WIND SPEEDS
IS EXPECTED WED NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE REGION
AND TURNS WINDS OUT OF THE N-NW. ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD/SNOWY END TO FEBRUARY 2015...RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND
NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE 1800S...AND TO 1906 AT SALISBURY
MD. SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE FOR
FEBRUARY ARE NOTED BELOW:

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

RICHMOND: 31.4 F (-9.5 FROM AVG). 6TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND
THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.5 F (-10.1 FROM AVG). 3RD COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1934.

SALISBURY: 28.7 F (-9.0 FROM AVG). 4TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1979.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...BMD/MPR
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...BMD/JDM
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021501
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1001 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS MORNING...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REMOVED MOST CTYS ALG-E OF I 95 FM DENSE FG ADVISORY DUE TO VSBYS
SUFFICIENTLY ABV THRESHOLD. KEPT AREAS FM THE PIEDMONT IN
CNTRL/SCNTRL VA TO NE NC WHERE VSBYS IN ENOUGH PLACES AVG 1/2 MI
OR LESS. CDFNT ABT TO ENTER WRN PORTION OF FA...AND WILL SCOUR OUT
THE FG AND LO CLDS THROUGH LT MRNG/MIDDAY AS IT CONTS TO THE CST.
LWRD POPS INLAND...KEEPING 30-40% CHC RA FM ERN VA TO NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1035MB HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA TONITE. XPCT M CLR TO PT
CLDY SKIES TO START OFF THE EVENING. TSCTNS SHOW MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE FA AFTR MIDNITE. SKIES STAY CLR LONG
ENOUGH FOR TMPS TO DROP BELOW FREEZING. LOWS FROM THE L-M20S ERN
SHORE...M-U20S W OF THE BAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE MOISTURE FROM THE NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG
FROM THE W. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WSW WITH A NE INSITU-WEDGE
SETTING UP AT THE SFC AS ANY WRM FRNT SNAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE MTS.
DATA INDICATES PCPN DELAYED UNTIL AFTR 15Z WITH PCPN OVERSPREADING
THE PIEDMONT (MAINLY W OF I95 CORRIDOR) BTWN 15-18Z. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES ALONG WITH SFC TMPS SUGGEST THAT SOME FREEZING RAIN IS
PSBL AT THE ONSET IN AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF RIC...TRANSITIONING TO
PLAIN RAIN DURING THE AFTN. BEST VV`S/OMEGA REMAIN ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF FA TUE AFTN WHERE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE. GIVEN ANTHR WEDGE
EVENT...WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED THE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BUT KEPT
THEM ABOVE FREEZING. HIGHS FROM THE M-U30S NRN HALF OF FA...U30S-
L40S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

WARM FRONT PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. BEST
MOISTURE (THUS HIGHEST POPS) SEEN IN THE EVENING AND ACROSS THE
NORTH...WITH CHC POPS ALL AREAS AFTR MIDNIGHT. MINS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AT 00Z WITH RISING TMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. TMPS BY 12Z WED
RISE INTO THE M40S-L50S.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRNG SSW FLOW.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE SEEN TO CONT PCPN CHCS. WENT AHEAD AND CHANGED
THE PCPN TYPE TO MORE CONVECTIVE RATHER THAN STRATIFORMED. NO
THUNDER EXPECTED AS DATA SHOWS MOST INSTABILITY REMAINING OFFSHORE
INVOF GULF STREAM. ALMOST A SPRING FEEL TO THE DAY AS TMPS FINALLY
RISE ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE U-U50S ERN SHORE...60S MOST AREAS
W OF THE BAY (70 PSBL ACROSS NE NC).

MODELS CONTINUE TO OFFER UP DIFFERENT TIMING SOLUTIONS IN REGARDS
TO THE NEXT ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THE TIMING WILL LIKELY DETERMINE HOW
FAST THE COLDER AIR SWEEPS ACROSS THE FA CHANGING ANY RAIN TO SNOW
AS YET ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO MOVE NE ALONG THE
BNDRY. FOR NOW...FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLN SO I SLOWED THE FROPA DOWN
SEVERAL MORE HRS (TO A PSN ACROSS AKQ`S NRN MOST CNTYS AT 12Z THU).
THIS CHANGE REQUIRES SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO WED NITES TMPS / WX. THE
WARMER SOLN SUGGESTS PCPN REMAINS MAINLY LIQUID THROUGH 12Z THURS.
LOWS IN THE L-M30S NRN MOST CNTYS...U30S-M40S SOUTH. STRNG CAA
ALONG WITH CRASHING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES RESULTS IN RAIN CHANGING
TO SNOW N-S THURSDAY ALONG WITH FALLING TMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THU/THU NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TRICKY FORECAST FOR
THU AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT PRECIP THROUGH THU AND THEN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
THU EVENING. A DECENT JET STREAK OF 150-170KT WILL ALSO ENHANCE
LIFTING POTENTIAL AND AID PRECIP-GENERATION. HIGHS ON THU EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 30S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING BELOW FREEZING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY.
THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPS...FALLING DEWPOINTS AND A COLD
AIRMASS RUNNING INTO REMNANTS OF WARMER AIR SE SHOULD RESULT IN
PRECIP BECOMING TO ALL SNOW FROM NW TO SE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...
WITH A CONTINUATION OF A SNOW/SLEET TRANSITION ZONE AND ALL RAIN
SE OF THIS CHANGE. QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN RATHER HIGH AND SUSPECT THE
ACTUAL AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LESS...WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. SKIES START TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS MOST AREAS AND IN THE
LOW-MID 20S FAR SE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRI. COOL AND
STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP AREAWIDE HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE 30S.
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO FLATTEN FRI NIGHT AND WLY FLOW ALOFT
BEGINS TO MODIFY 850 TEMPS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS
REBOUND INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S SAT AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 50S
SUN. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 AND SUN NIGHT IN
THE LOW-MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CIGS TO CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 13-14Z BEFORE
STARTING TO IMPROVE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND
OFF THE COAST MID/LATE MORNING...HELPING TO IMPROVE CIGS/VSBY TO
VFR ALL TAF SITES BY AROUND 18Z. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. MORE PCPN POSSIBLE TUE
AFTN/NGT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO AND ACRS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...DENSE FOG ADVISORIES HAVE EXPIRED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SW WINDS 10-15KT WILL BECOME WEST THEN
NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT ON THE
BAY/OCEAN JUST BEHIND THE FRONT (HIGHEST NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS)...AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT SCA HEADLINES. WINDS
15 KT OR LESS ON THE RIVERS AND SOUND. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO LOWER ALMOST ALL
SCA`S BY 7PM. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR THE COASTAL ZONES
SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER WHERE 5FT SEAS WILL HOLD ON INTO THE
EVENING AS WINDS TURN TO THE N-NE.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE-E WINDS EXPECTED. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME S-SW AND
INCREASE TO SCA SPEEDS TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED AFTN BEFORE
DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT AND WAVES
BUILD TO 3-4 FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. A BRIEF LULL IN WIND SPEEDS
IS EXPECTED WED NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE REGION
AND TURNS WINDS OUT OF THE N-NW. ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD/SNOWY END TO FEBRUARY 2015...RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND
NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE 1800S...AND TO 1906 AT SALISBURY
MD. SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE FOR
FEBRUARY ARE NOTED BELOW:

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

RICHMOND: 31.4 F (-9.5 FROM AVG). 6TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND
THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.5 F (-10.1 FROM AVG). 3RD COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1934.

SALISBURY: 28.7 F (-9.0 FROM AVG). 4TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1979.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...BMD/MPR
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...BMD/JDM
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021501
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1001 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS MORNING...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REMOVED MOST CTYS ALG-E OF I 95 FM DENSE FG ADVISORY DUE TO VSBYS
SUFFICIENTLY ABV THRESHOLD. KEPT AREAS FM THE PIEDMONT IN
CNTRL/SCNTRL VA TO NE NC WHERE VSBYS IN ENOUGH PLACES AVG 1/2 MI
OR LESS. CDFNT ABT TO ENTER WRN PORTION OF FA...AND WILL SCOUR OUT
THE FG AND LO CLDS THROUGH LT MRNG/MIDDAY AS IT CONTS TO THE CST.
LWRD POPS INLAND...KEEPING 30-40% CHC RA FM ERN VA TO NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1035MB HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA TONITE. XPCT M CLR TO PT
CLDY SKIES TO START OFF THE EVENING. TSCTNS SHOW MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE FA AFTR MIDNITE. SKIES STAY CLR LONG
ENOUGH FOR TMPS TO DROP BELOW FREEZING. LOWS FROM THE L-M20S ERN
SHORE...M-U20S W OF THE BAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE MOISTURE FROM THE NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG
FROM THE W. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WSW WITH A NE INSITU-WEDGE
SETTING UP AT THE SFC AS ANY WRM FRNT SNAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE MTS.
DATA INDICATES PCPN DELAYED UNTIL AFTR 15Z WITH PCPN OVERSPREADING
THE PIEDMONT (MAINLY W OF I95 CORRIDOR) BTWN 15-18Z. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES ALONG WITH SFC TMPS SUGGEST THAT SOME FREEZING RAIN IS
PSBL AT THE ONSET IN AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF RIC...TRANSITIONING TO
PLAIN RAIN DURING THE AFTN. BEST VV`S/OMEGA REMAIN ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF FA TUE AFTN WHERE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE. GIVEN ANTHR WEDGE
EVENT...WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED THE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BUT KEPT
THEM ABOVE FREEZING. HIGHS FROM THE M-U30S NRN HALF OF FA...U30S-
L40S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

WARM FRONT PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. BEST
MOISTURE (THUS HIGHEST POPS) SEEN IN THE EVENING AND ACROSS THE
NORTH...WITH CHC POPS ALL AREAS AFTR MIDNIGHT. MINS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AT 00Z WITH RISING TMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. TMPS BY 12Z WED
RISE INTO THE M40S-L50S.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRNG SSW FLOW.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE SEEN TO CONT PCPN CHCS. WENT AHEAD AND CHANGED
THE PCPN TYPE TO MORE CONVECTIVE RATHER THAN STRATIFORMED. NO
THUNDER EXPECTED AS DATA SHOWS MOST INSTABILITY REMAINING OFFSHORE
INVOF GULF STREAM. ALMOST A SPRING FEEL TO THE DAY AS TMPS FINALLY
RISE ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE U-U50S ERN SHORE...60S MOST AREAS
W OF THE BAY (70 PSBL ACROSS NE NC).

MODELS CONTINUE TO OFFER UP DIFFERENT TIMING SOLUTIONS IN REGARDS
TO THE NEXT ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THE TIMING WILL LIKELY DETERMINE HOW
FAST THE COLDER AIR SWEEPS ACROSS THE FA CHANGING ANY RAIN TO SNOW
AS YET ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO MOVE NE ALONG THE
BNDRY. FOR NOW...FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLN SO I SLOWED THE FROPA DOWN
SEVERAL MORE HRS (TO A PSN ACROSS AKQ`S NRN MOST CNTYS AT 12Z THU).
THIS CHANGE REQUIRES SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO WED NITES TMPS / WX. THE
WARMER SOLN SUGGESTS PCPN REMAINS MAINLY LIQUID THROUGH 12Z THURS.
LOWS IN THE L-M30S NRN MOST CNTYS...U30S-M40S SOUTH. STRNG CAA
ALONG WITH CRASHING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES RESULTS IN RAIN CHANGING
TO SNOW N-S THURSDAY ALONG WITH FALLING TMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THU/THU NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TRICKY FORECAST FOR
THU AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT PRECIP THROUGH THU AND THEN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
THU EVENING. A DECENT JET STREAK OF 150-170KT WILL ALSO ENHANCE
LIFTING POTENTIAL AND AID PRECIP-GENERATION. HIGHS ON THU EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 30S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING BELOW FREEZING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY.
THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPS...FALLING DEWPOINTS AND A COLD
AIRMASS RUNNING INTO REMNANTS OF WARMER AIR SE SHOULD RESULT IN
PRECIP BECOMING TO ALL SNOW FROM NW TO SE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...
WITH A CONTINUATION OF A SNOW/SLEET TRANSITION ZONE AND ALL RAIN
SE OF THIS CHANGE. QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN RATHER HIGH AND SUSPECT THE
ACTUAL AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LESS...WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. SKIES START TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS MOST AREAS AND IN THE
LOW-MID 20S FAR SE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRI. COOL AND
STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP AREAWIDE HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE 30S.
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO FLATTEN FRI NIGHT AND WLY FLOW ALOFT
BEGINS TO MODIFY 850 TEMPS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS
REBOUND INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S SAT AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 50S
SUN. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 AND SUN NIGHT IN
THE LOW-MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CIGS TO CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 13-14Z BEFORE
STARTING TO IMPROVE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND
OFF THE COAST MID/LATE MORNING...HELPING TO IMPROVE CIGS/VSBY TO
VFR ALL TAF SITES BY AROUND 18Z. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. MORE PCPN POSSIBLE TUE
AFTN/NGT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO AND ACRS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...DENSE FOG ADVISORIES HAVE EXPIRED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SW WINDS 10-15KT WILL BECOME WEST THEN
NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT ON THE
BAY/OCEAN JUST BEHIND THE FRONT (HIGHEST NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS)...AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT SCA HEADLINES. WINDS
15 KT OR LESS ON THE RIVERS AND SOUND. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO LOWER ALMOST ALL
SCA`S BY 7PM. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR THE COASTAL ZONES
SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER WHERE 5FT SEAS WILL HOLD ON INTO THE
EVENING AS WINDS TURN TO THE N-NE.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE-E WINDS EXPECTED. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME S-SW AND
INCREASE TO SCA SPEEDS TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED AFTN BEFORE
DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT AND WAVES
BUILD TO 3-4 FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. A BRIEF LULL IN WIND SPEEDS
IS EXPECTED WED NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE REGION
AND TURNS WINDS OUT OF THE N-NW. ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD/SNOWY END TO FEBRUARY 2015...RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND
NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE 1800S...AND TO 1906 AT SALISBURY
MD. SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE FOR
FEBRUARY ARE NOTED BELOW:

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

RICHMOND: 31.4 F (-9.5 FROM AVG). 6TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND
THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.5 F (-10.1 FROM AVG). 3RD COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1934.

SALISBURY: 28.7 F (-9.0 FROM AVG). 4TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1979.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...BMD/MPR
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...BMD/JDM
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021501
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1001 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS MORNING...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REMOVED MOST CTYS ALG-E OF I 95 FM DENSE FG ADVISORY DUE TO VSBYS
SUFFICIENTLY ABV THRESHOLD. KEPT AREAS FM THE PIEDMONT IN
CNTRL/SCNTRL VA TO NE NC WHERE VSBYS IN ENOUGH PLACES AVG 1/2 MI
OR LESS. CDFNT ABT TO ENTER WRN PORTION OF FA...AND WILL SCOUR OUT
THE FG AND LO CLDS THROUGH LT MRNG/MIDDAY AS IT CONTS TO THE CST.
LWRD POPS INLAND...KEEPING 30-40% CHC RA FM ERN VA TO NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1035MB HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA TONITE. XPCT M CLR TO PT
CLDY SKIES TO START OFF THE EVENING. TSCTNS SHOW MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE FA AFTR MIDNITE. SKIES STAY CLR LONG
ENOUGH FOR TMPS TO DROP BELOW FREEZING. LOWS FROM THE L-M20S ERN
SHORE...M-U20S W OF THE BAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE MOISTURE FROM THE NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG
FROM THE W. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WSW WITH A NE INSITU-WEDGE
SETTING UP AT THE SFC AS ANY WRM FRNT SNAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE MTS.
DATA INDICATES PCPN DELAYED UNTIL AFTR 15Z WITH PCPN OVERSPREADING
THE PIEDMONT (MAINLY W OF I95 CORRIDOR) BTWN 15-18Z. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES ALONG WITH SFC TMPS SUGGEST THAT SOME FREEZING RAIN IS
PSBL AT THE ONSET IN AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF RIC...TRANSITIONING TO
PLAIN RAIN DURING THE AFTN. BEST VV`S/OMEGA REMAIN ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF FA TUE AFTN WHERE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE. GIVEN ANTHR WEDGE
EVENT...WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED THE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BUT KEPT
THEM ABOVE FREEZING. HIGHS FROM THE M-U30S NRN HALF OF FA...U30S-
L40S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

WARM FRONT PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. BEST
MOISTURE (THUS HIGHEST POPS) SEEN IN THE EVENING AND ACROSS THE
NORTH...WITH CHC POPS ALL AREAS AFTR MIDNIGHT. MINS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AT 00Z WITH RISING TMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. TMPS BY 12Z WED
RISE INTO THE M40S-L50S.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRNG SSW FLOW.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE SEEN TO CONT PCPN CHCS. WENT AHEAD AND CHANGED
THE PCPN TYPE TO MORE CONVECTIVE RATHER THAN STRATIFORMED. NO
THUNDER EXPECTED AS DATA SHOWS MOST INSTABILITY REMAINING OFFSHORE
INVOF GULF STREAM. ALMOST A SPRING FEEL TO THE DAY AS TMPS FINALLY
RISE ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE U-U50S ERN SHORE...60S MOST AREAS
W OF THE BAY (70 PSBL ACROSS NE NC).

MODELS CONTINUE TO OFFER UP DIFFERENT TIMING SOLUTIONS IN REGARDS
TO THE NEXT ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THE TIMING WILL LIKELY DETERMINE HOW
FAST THE COLDER AIR SWEEPS ACROSS THE FA CHANGING ANY RAIN TO SNOW
AS YET ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO MOVE NE ALONG THE
BNDRY. FOR NOW...FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLN SO I SLOWED THE FROPA DOWN
SEVERAL MORE HRS (TO A PSN ACROSS AKQ`S NRN MOST CNTYS AT 12Z THU).
THIS CHANGE REQUIRES SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO WED NITES TMPS / WX. THE
WARMER SOLN SUGGESTS PCPN REMAINS MAINLY LIQUID THROUGH 12Z THURS.
LOWS IN THE L-M30S NRN MOST CNTYS...U30S-M40S SOUTH. STRNG CAA
ALONG WITH CRASHING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES RESULTS IN RAIN CHANGING
TO SNOW N-S THURSDAY ALONG WITH FALLING TMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THU/THU NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TRICKY FORECAST FOR
THU AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT PRECIP THROUGH THU AND THEN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
THU EVENING. A DECENT JET STREAK OF 150-170KT WILL ALSO ENHANCE
LIFTING POTENTIAL AND AID PRECIP-GENERATION. HIGHS ON THU EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 30S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING BELOW FREEZING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY.
THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPS...FALLING DEWPOINTS AND A COLD
AIRMASS RUNNING INTO REMNANTS OF WARMER AIR SE SHOULD RESULT IN
PRECIP BECOMING TO ALL SNOW FROM NW TO SE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...
WITH A CONTINUATION OF A SNOW/SLEET TRANSITION ZONE AND ALL RAIN
SE OF THIS CHANGE. QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN RATHER HIGH AND SUSPECT THE
ACTUAL AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LESS...WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. SKIES START TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS MOST AREAS AND IN THE
LOW-MID 20S FAR SE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRI. COOL AND
STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP AREAWIDE HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE 30S.
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO FLATTEN FRI NIGHT AND WLY FLOW ALOFT
BEGINS TO MODIFY 850 TEMPS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS
REBOUND INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S SAT AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 50S
SUN. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 AND SUN NIGHT IN
THE LOW-MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CIGS TO CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 13-14Z BEFORE
STARTING TO IMPROVE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND
OFF THE COAST MID/LATE MORNING...HELPING TO IMPROVE CIGS/VSBY TO
VFR ALL TAF SITES BY AROUND 18Z. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. MORE PCPN POSSIBLE TUE
AFTN/NGT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO AND ACRS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...DENSE FOG ADVISORIES HAVE EXPIRED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SW WINDS 10-15KT WILL BECOME WEST THEN
NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT ON THE
BAY/OCEAN JUST BEHIND THE FRONT (HIGHEST NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS)...AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT SCA HEADLINES. WINDS
15 KT OR LESS ON THE RIVERS AND SOUND. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO LOWER ALMOST ALL
SCA`S BY 7PM. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR THE COASTAL ZONES
SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER WHERE 5FT SEAS WILL HOLD ON INTO THE
EVENING AS WINDS TURN TO THE N-NE.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE-E WINDS EXPECTED. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME S-SW AND
INCREASE TO SCA SPEEDS TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED AFTN BEFORE
DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT AND WAVES
BUILD TO 3-4 FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. A BRIEF LULL IN WIND SPEEDS
IS EXPECTED WED NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE REGION
AND TURNS WINDS OUT OF THE N-NW. ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD/SNOWY END TO FEBRUARY 2015...RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND
NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE 1800S...AND TO 1906 AT SALISBURY
MD. SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE FOR
FEBRUARY ARE NOTED BELOW:

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

RICHMOND: 31.4 F (-9.5 FROM AVG). 6TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND
THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.5 F (-10.1 FROM AVG). 3RD COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1934.

SALISBURY: 28.7 F (-9.0 FROM AVG). 4TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1979.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...BMD/MPR
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...BMD/JDM
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KRNK 021430
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
930 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND OFF THE COAST THIS
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT...CROSSING THE
OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
TUESDAY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM EST MONDAY...

A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WSR-88D SHOWED A FEW NARROW BANDS OF SNOW
AND RAIN DIMINISHING THIS MORNING. MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO DIMINISHPOPS
THIS MORNING WITH DRY AIR PUNCH AND DOWNSLOPING EFFECT. LEANED
POPS TOWARDS RNK WRF-ARW FOR NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MODIFIED
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON ACCORDING TO SFC
OBS AND MODEL TRENDS.



AS OF 500 AM EST MONDAY...

A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH THE MORNING AND WILL BE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY NOON. MODELS HOLD A MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE FAR WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA
THIS MORNING. PUSH OF DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE ENOUGH
TO END CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND CLEAR OUR MUCH OF THE FOG AND
CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY TODAY AND WEDGES DOWN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS
TONIGHT.

850 MB WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE 45 TO 55 KNOTS WITH PRESSURE
RISES 5 TO 7 MB/6 HOURS THIS MORNING. WILL HAVE WINDS GUSTING JUST
BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL...UP TO 50 MPH THIS MORNING. WINDS DIMINISH
THIS AFTERNOON AND THE TURN TO THE EAST THEN SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS
THE WEDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED. THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK NORTH ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND EASTERN
SLOPES OVERNIGHT.

COLDER AIR COMES IN BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY...BUT WITH SHRINKING
AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION AND SOME SUN IN THE
AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE. AS WIND
DROPS OFF THIS EVENING...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BUT AS CLOUD FILL
BACK IN LATE TONIGHT DROP IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED.

HAVE ADDED PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR
THE TYPICAL UPSLOPE AREA ALONG AND EAST OF THE SOUTHERN BLUE
RIDGE. BUFKIT SHOWED A WARM NOSE AROUND 3000 FT AGL AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM EST MONDAY...

WE WILL START OUT TUESDAY DEALING WITH ANOTHER WEDGE SITUATION
SIMILAR TO WHAT WE JUST WENT THROUGH ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH MORE
SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION TO DEAL WITH. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES DOWN
THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL GET OVER RUN BY MUCH WARMER AIR AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. SOUNDINGS ON BUFKIT SHOW
THE DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO BE SUBSTANTIALLY
DEEP AND COLD AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL FAVOR SOME
SLEET AND HELP KEEP DOWN ICING ACCUMULATIONS FROM FREEZING RAIN AS
PRECIPITATION MOVES IN. AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE...THE WARMER AIR
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GOOD WARMING AND THE LEAST
POTENTIAL FOR ICING FROM THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE AND GRAYSON HIGHLANDS
OF VA INTO THE NW MOUNTAINS OF NC. EXPECTING THE WARMER AIR TO
INTRUDE INTO THE NEW RIVER AND ROANOKE VALLEYS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT THE COLD AIR WILL MODERATE ONLY SLOWLY ACROSS THE
GREENBRIER VALLEY...ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS...AND PIEDMONTS OF NC/VA.
HOWEVER...EVEN THIS SLIGHT TEMPERATURE MODERATION SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO END THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE IT MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THE LATEST QPF
FORECASTS AND EXPECTED SNOW MELT...CURRENT HYDROLOGIC MODELS DO NOT
INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD THREAT BUT SMALLER STREAMS AND
CREEKS ARE STILL A CONCERN. HOWEVER...CONSENSUS TIMING OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS NOT CLEAR CUT AND BELIEVE IT BEST TO WAIT FOR
LATER MODEL RUNS BEFORE DECIDING IF ANY HYDRO WATCHES ARE NEEDED.

AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A BURST OF SNOW AS THE COLD AIR
CATCHES UP TO THE BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION STARTING ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT. IT LOOKS TO BE A FINE LINE BETWEEN WHERE
THE AIR TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT SNOW AND WHERE THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION WILL BE. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION TO RECEIVE SEVERAL
INCHES OF WET SNOW CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE 30 MILES OR SO EITHER
SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT THIS WILL LIKELY CHANGE AS THE
SITUATION DEVELOPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EST SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT...SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWER WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HOWEVER...BY MIDNIGHT...PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END...AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION WILL TREND FROM CLOUDY TO PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE LOWER
TEENS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD INTO...OVER...AND THEN EAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL HAVE THE
IMPACT TO KEEP OUR REGION PRECIPITATION FREE WITH A TREND FROM
COLDER CONDITIONS TO MILDER CONDITIONS AS WE START GETTING ON THE
RETURN SIDE SW-W FLOW OF THE HIGH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE TREND
WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH NO PRECIPITATION AND EVEN MILDER
CONDITIONS AS A TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE CENTRAL U.S. AND A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 655 AM EST MONDAY...

TAF PERIOD STARTS WITH IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS ALONG A COLD FRONT
THAT WAS CROSSING THROUGH THE AREA. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN WAS OVER
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH
SNOW WAS OVER SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. KLWB AND KBLF MAY HAVE -SN
BEFORE 14Z/9AM. KBCB MAY HAVE -RA EARLY THIS MORNING.

THE FRONT WILL BE EAST OF KLYH AND KDAN BY NOON TODAY. DRIER AIR
COMES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 21Z/4PM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONE AGAIN WEDGE DOWN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. AS SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHWEST...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN NORTH ALONG
THE SOUTHERN  BLUE RIDGE. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF CEILINGS LOWERING TO
MVFR AT KBCB AND KDAN AFTER 06Z/1AM. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE AND FOG...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE.

HAVE ADDED SOME LLWS FOR THIS MORNING DUE TO A 45 TO 55 KNOT LOW
LEVEL JET. AS THE FRONT GOES THROUGH AND MIXING BEGINS...EXPECT
WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

EXTENDED FORECAST...

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT ALL OF THE REGION
WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY INTO NEW ENGLAND ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AND
WINTER PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

FRIDAY SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR WEATHER.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 500 AM EST MONDAY...

CONCERN FOR HAS BEEN POTENTIAL COMBINATION OF SNOW MELT AND HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS THE GREENBRIER...UPPER JAMES RIVER BASINS WHERE
UP TO TWO FEET OF SNOW HAS FALLEN DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.

SOME MELTING HAS OCCURRED AND MORE IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TUESDAY.
FORECAST RAIN AMOUNTS ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MAY REACH 1.5
INCHES. THE COMBINATION OF SNOW MELT AND THIS MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR RISES ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS.
MAJOR FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

THE NEXT WAVE OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SHOULD TRACK ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...WHERE THERE IS LITTLE TO NO SNOWPACK OF CONCERN. ONE
OTHER ISSUE MIGHT BE POTENTIAL ICE JAMS ON LOCAL STREAMS AND
RIVERS...GIVEN THE FACT THAT MUCH OF THE LAST THREE WEEKS HAVE
BEEN WELL BELOW FREEZING...WITH MANY DAYS BELOW 20. THIS COULD
RESULT IN MORE EXTENSIVE FLOODING IN CERTAIN SPOTS AND WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS/PM
HYDROLOGY...AMS/RAB



000
FXUS61 KRNK 021430
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
930 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND OFF THE COAST THIS
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT...CROSSING THE
OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
TUESDAY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM EST MONDAY...

A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WSR-88D SHOWED A FEW NARROW BANDS OF SNOW
AND RAIN DIMINISHING THIS MORNING. MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO DIMINISHPOPS
THIS MORNING WITH DRY AIR PUNCH AND DOWNSLOPING EFFECT. LEANED
POPS TOWARDS RNK WRF-ARW FOR NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MODIFIED
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON ACCORDING TO SFC
OBS AND MODEL TRENDS.



AS OF 500 AM EST MONDAY...

A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH THE MORNING AND WILL BE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY NOON. MODELS HOLD A MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE FAR WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA
THIS MORNING. PUSH OF DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE ENOUGH
TO END CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND CLEAR OUR MUCH OF THE FOG AND
CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY TODAY AND WEDGES DOWN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS
TONIGHT.

850 MB WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE 45 TO 55 KNOTS WITH PRESSURE
RISES 5 TO 7 MB/6 HOURS THIS MORNING. WILL HAVE WINDS GUSTING JUST
BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL...UP TO 50 MPH THIS MORNING. WINDS DIMINISH
THIS AFTERNOON AND THE TURN TO THE EAST THEN SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS
THE WEDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED. THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK NORTH ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND EASTERN
SLOPES OVERNIGHT.

COLDER AIR COMES IN BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY...BUT WITH SHRINKING
AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION AND SOME SUN IN THE
AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE. AS WIND
DROPS OFF THIS EVENING...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BUT AS CLOUD FILL
BACK IN LATE TONIGHT DROP IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED.

HAVE ADDED PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR
THE TYPICAL UPSLOPE AREA ALONG AND EAST OF THE SOUTHERN BLUE
RIDGE. BUFKIT SHOWED A WARM NOSE AROUND 3000 FT AGL AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM EST MONDAY...

WE WILL START OUT TUESDAY DEALING WITH ANOTHER WEDGE SITUATION
SIMILAR TO WHAT WE JUST WENT THROUGH ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH MORE
SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION TO DEAL WITH. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES DOWN
THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL GET OVER RUN BY MUCH WARMER AIR AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. SOUNDINGS ON BUFKIT SHOW
THE DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO BE SUBSTANTIALLY
DEEP AND COLD AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL FAVOR SOME
SLEET AND HELP KEEP DOWN ICING ACCUMULATIONS FROM FREEZING RAIN AS
PRECIPITATION MOVES IN. AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE...THE WARMER AIR
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GOOD WARMING AND THE LEAST
POTENTIAL FOR ICING FROM THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE AND GRAYSON HIGHLANDS
OF VA INTO THE NW MOUNTAINS OF NC. EXPECTING THE WARMER AIR TO
INTRUDE INTO THE NEW RIVER AND ROANOKE VALLEYS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT THE COLD AIR WILL MODERATE ONLY SLOWLY ACROSS THE
GREENBRIER VALLEY...ALLEGH