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000
FXUS61 KLWX 291610
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1210 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON
MONDAY. A REINFORCING CLIPPER LOW WILL PASS OVER THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT FOLLOWS WILL SLIDE TO OUR SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR WARM TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HIPRES CENTERED OVER WVA ATTM. RESULTS SEEN ON SATPIX
/PRACTICALLY CLEAR SKIES THRUT/ AND IN WIND FIELDS /WHICH ARE BGNG
TO DIMINISH SWIFTLY/. AS THE RIDGE PASSES BY...WE SHUD HV A MOSUN
DAY WL RELATIVELY LGT WINDS AND WARMER TEMPS...COMPARED TO YDA. A
CPL OF SMALL TWEAKS MADE TO DATABASE...OTRW GOING FCST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM QUICKLY APPROACHES
TONIGHT. SFC LOW AND BEST DYNAMIC LIFT WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER A STRONG LLJ WILL ACCOMPANY THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
AND BRING DECENT MOISTURE RETURN IN THE NARROW WARM SECTOR WHICH
WILL SPREAD EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT (INCREASE IN PWAT FROM AROUND 0.10
AT 00Z LAST EVENING UP TO AROUND 0.75 LATE TONIGHT). GIVEN
CONSISTENCY OF QPF RESPONSE IN MODEL GUIDANCE...FORECAST POPS HAVE
BEEN INCREASED QUITE A BIT...WITH EVERYONE AT LEAST 20 PCT NOW. THE
ORIENTATION OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WRT TO MOUNTAINS LENDS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER CHANCES EXIST FROM CENTRAL VA TO SOUTHERN MD...AND THE
GREATEST PROBS ARE IN THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL
FALL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST LIES IN P-TYPE (SHOULD ANY FALL).
WITH THE HIGH TO THE SE...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALREADY BE
ESTABLISHED...SO TEMP FALLS WILL BE RELATED TO NOCTURNAL AND WETBULB
PROCESSES (AMBIENT AIRMASS QUITE DRY). LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF 2M
TEMPS OVER MOS. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE TEMPS LEVEL OFF OR PERHAPS EVEN
SLIGHTLY RISE IN SOME SPOTS. WITH THAT SAID...THERMAL PROFILES ARE
MARGINAL FOR RAIN AND SNOW WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 30S. NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME SLEET COULD FALL OR EVEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN (MAINLY NORTHERN MD AND THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS).
HOWEVER WITHOUT A CLASSIC WARM NOSE...LIMITED TO ONLY RA/SN NOW. THE
AREAS OF MOST CONCERN FOR TEMPS ALSO HAVE LOWER CHANCE OF PRECIP.
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS COULD SEE AROUND AN
INCH OF SNOW...BUT MIXING IS EVEN POSSIBLE THERE.

THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL QUICKLY SLIDE SE BY MID
MONDAY MORNING. CAA WILL BE LIMITED AS LLVL FLOW REMAINS WESTERLY.
EFFICIENT MIXING WILL MEAN POSSIBLE GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH.
HIGHEST TERRAIN COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER...BUT APPEARS TO BE BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY BE WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAY...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S
EXCEPT IN THE HIGH TERRAIN (SIDED TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE SETTLED WEATHER BETWEEN SYSTEMS. NEXT UP IS
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SHOWN IN THE GFS AND EURO FAIRLY SIMILARLY. IT
PASSES SE THROUGH THE MID ATL ON TUESDAY DAY. LOW LVL THICKNESSES ON
BOTH ALSO SHOW ANY PRECIP BEING RAIN. GFS IS MOST BULLISH ON POPS.
WENT BETWEEN THAT AND THE LESS GENEROUS EURO. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE
LIGHT.

AFTER THAT HIGH MOVES QUICKLY OVER AND THEN TO OUR EAST WITH SW FLOW
DEVELOPING. THAT SHOULD BRING A COUPLE OF WARM DAYS TO THE REGION
THU AND FRI BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES IN AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK AND
BECOME SOUTHERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR
CATEGORY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF A PASSING SHOWER LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY...GREATEST AT CHO. IF PRECIP IS DOES DEVELOP AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS...IT IS POSSIBLE IT COULD BE A RA/SN MIX.
WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT AND GUST OF 20-30 KT
DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

MVFR POSSIBLE AT THE TERMINALS ON TUESDAY DAY WITH A CLIPPER PASSING
THROUGH. AFTER THAT...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THU. MVFR TO
POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS MAY MOVE IN LATE IN THE WEEK IN ADVANCE OF
THE LATE WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
ALLOWED SCA FOR THE NRN BAY AND LOWER TIDAL PTMC TO EXPIRE AT
NOON...AND ADJUSTED MID BAY TO EXPIRE AN HR ERLR...AT 3PM. BASED
ON LTST TRENDS...IT SEEMS APPARENT EVEN THAT A TOUCH TOO GENEROUS
AND ANTICIPATE AN ERLR CANCELLATION.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH THIS EVENING AND TURNS WINDS
SOUTHERLY. THESE WILL BEGIN TO CHANNEL UP THE BAY WITH ANOTHER SCA
GOING INTO EFFECT AT MIDNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS EARLY
MONDAY MORNING SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST AND PERHAPS BRINGING A
SHOWER. BEHIND THE FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 30 KT
THROUGH MONDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FROM MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE WINDS CAN SUBSIDE. LATER TUE INTO TUE EVE IS
ALSO A POSSIBILITY AFTER THE CLIPPER PASSES THROUGH WITH AN INCREASE
IN WINDS TO NEAR 20KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ533-
     534-541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CAS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...CAS
AVIATION...HTS/ADS/CAS
MARINE...HTS/ADS/CAS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 291610
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1210 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON
MONDAY. A REINFORCING CLIPPER LOW WILL PASS OVER THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT FOLLOWS WILL SLIDE TO OUR SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR WARM TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HIPRES CENTERED OVER WVA ATTM. RESULTS SEEN ON SATPIX
/PRACTICALLY CLEAR SKIES THRUT/ AND IN WIND FIELDS /WHICH ARE BGNG
TO DIMINISH SWIFTLY/. AS THE RIDGE PASSES BY...WE SHUD HV A MOSUN
DAY WL RELATIVELY LGT WINDS AND WARMER TEMPS...COMPARED TO YDA. A
CPL OF SMALL TWEAKS MADE TO DATABASE...OTRW GOING FCST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM QUICKLY APPROACHES
TONIGHT. SFC LOW AND BEST DYNAMIC LIFT WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER A STRONG LLJ WILL ACCOMPANY THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
AND BRING DECENT MOISTURE RETURN IN THE NARROW WARM SECTOR WHICH
WILL SPREAD EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT (INCREASE IN PWAT FROM AROUND 0.10
AT 00Z LAST EVENING UP TO AROUND 0.75 LATE TONIGHT). GIVEN
CONSISTENCY OF QPF RESPONSE IN MODEL GUIDANCE...FORECAST POPS HAVE
BEEN INCREASED QUITE A BIT...WITH EVERYONE AT LEAST 20 PCT NOW. THE
ORIENTATION OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WRT TO MOUNTAINS LENDS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER CHANCES EXIST FROM CENTRAL VA TO SOUTHERN MD...AND THE
GREATEST PROBS ARE IN THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL
FALL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST LIES IN P-TYPE (SHOULD ANY FALL).
WITH THE HIGH TO THE SE...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALREADY BE
ESTABLISHED...SO TEMP FALLS WILL BE RELATED TO NOCTURNAL AND WETBULB
PROCESSES (AMBIENT AIRMASS QUITE DRY). LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF 2M
TEMPS OVER MOS. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE TEMPS LEVEL OFF OR PERHAPS EVEN
SLIGHTLY RISE IN SOME SPOTS. WITH THAT SAID...THERMAL PROFILES ARE
MARGINAL FOR RAIN AND SNOW WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 30S. NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME SLEET COULD FALL OR EVEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN (MAINLY NORTHERN MD AND THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS).
HOWEVER WITHOUT A CLASSIC WARM NOSE...LIMITED TO ONLY RA/SN NOW. THE
AREAS OF MOST CONCERN FOR TEMPS ALSO HAVE LOWER CHANCE OF PRECIP.
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS COULD SEE AROUND AN
INCH OF SNOW...BUT MIXING IS EVEN POSSIBLE THERE.

THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL QUICKLY SLIDE SE BY MID
MONDAY MORNING. CAA WILL BE LIMITED AS LLVL FLOW REMAINS WESTERLY.
EFFICIENT MIXING WILL MEAN POSSIBLE GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH.
HIGHEST TERRAIN COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER...BUT APPEARS TO BE BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY BE WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAY...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S
EXCEPT IN THE HIGH TERRAIN (SIDED TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE SETTLED WEATHER BETWEEN SYSTEMS. NEXT UP IS
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SHOWN IN THE GFS AND EURO FAIRLY SIMILARLY. IT
PASSES SE THROUGH THE MID ATL ON TUESDAY DAY. LOW LVL THICKNESSES ON
BOTH ALSO SHOW ANY PRECIP BEING RAIN. GFS IS MOST BULLISH ON POPS.
WENT BETWEEN THAT AND THE LESS GENEROUS EURO. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE
LIGHT.

AFTER THAT HIGH MOVES QUICKLY OVER AND THEN TO OUR EAST WITH SW FLOW
DEVELOPING. THAT SHOULD BRING A COUPLE OF WARM DAYS TO THE REGION
THU AND FRI BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES IN AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK AND
BECOME SOUTHERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR
CATEGORY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF A PASSING SHOWER LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY...GREATEST AT CHO. IF PRECIP IS DOES DEVELOP AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS...IT IS POSSIBLE IT COULD BE A RA/SN MIX.
WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT AND GUST OF 20-30 KT
DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

MVFR POSSIBLE AT THE TERMINALS ON TUESDAY DAY WITH A CLIPPER PASSING
THROUGH. AFTER THAT...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THU. MVFR TO
POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS MAY MOVE IN LATE IN THE WEEK IN ADVANCE OF
THE LATE WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
ALLOWED SCA FOR THE NRN BAY AND LOWER TIDAL PTMC TO EXPIRE AT
NOON...AND ADJUSTED MID BAY TO EXPIRE AN HR ERLR...AT 3PM. BASED
ON LTST TRENDS...IT SEEMS APPARENT EVEN THAT A TOUCH TOO GENEROUS
AND ANTICIPATE AN ERLR CANCELLATION.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH THIS EVENING AND TURNS WINDS
SOUTHERLY. THESE WILL BEGIN TO CHANNEL UP THE BAY WITH ANOTHER SCA
GOING INTO EFFECT AT MIDNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS EARLY
MONDAY MORNING SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST AND PERHAPS BRINGING A
SHOWER. BEHIND THE FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 30 KT
THROUGH MONDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FROM MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE WINDS CAN SUBSIDE. LATER TUE INTO TUE EVE IS
ALSO A POSSIBILITY AFTER THE CLIPPER PASSES THROUGH WITH AN INCREASE
IN WINDS TO NEAR 20KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ533-
     534-541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CAS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...CAS
AVIATION...HTS/ADS/CAS
MARINE...HTS/ADS/CAS



000
FXUS61 KLWX 291350
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
950 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON
MONDAY. A REINFORCING CLIPPER LOW WILL PASS OVER THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT FOLLOWS WILL SLIDE TO OUR SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR WARM TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

SFC HIPRES CENTERED OVER WVA ATTM. RESULTS SEEN ON SATPIX
/PRACTICALLY CLEAR SKIES THRUT/ AND IN WIND FIELDS /WHICH ARE BGNG
TO DIMINISH SWIFTLY/. AS THE RIDGE PASSES BY...WE SHUD HV A MOSUN
DAY WL RELATIVELY LGT WINDS AND WARMER TEMPS...COMPARED TO YDA. A
CPL OF SMALL TWEAKS MADE TO DATABASE...OTRW GOING FCST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM QUICKLY APPROACHES
TONIGHT. SFC LOW AND BEST DYNAMIC LIFT WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER A STRONG LLJ WILL ACCOMPANY THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
AND BRING DECENT MOISTURE RETURN IN THE NARROW WARM SECTOR WHICH
WILL SPREAD EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT (INCREASE IN PWAT FROM AROUND 0.10
AT 00Z LAST EVENING UP TO AROUND 0.75 LATE TONIGHT). GIVEN
CONSISTENCY OF QPF RESPONSE IN MODEL GUIDANCE...FORECAST POPS HAVE
BEEN INCREASED QUITE A BIT...WITH EVERYONE AT LEAST 20 PCT NOW. THE
ORIENTATION OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WRT TO MOUNTAINS LENDS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER CHANCES EXIST FROM CENTRAL VA TO SOUTHERN MD...AND THE
GREATEST PROBS ARE IN THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL
FALL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST LIES IN P-TYPE (SHOULD ANY FALL).
WITH THE HIGH TO THE SE...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALREADY BE
ESTABLISHED...SO TEMP FALLS WILL BE RELATED TO NOCTURNAL AND WETBULB
PROCESSES (AMBIENT AIRMASS QUITE DRY). LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF 2M
TEMPS OVER MOS. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE TEMPS LEVEL OFF OR PERHAPS EVEN
SLIGHTLY RISE IN SOME SPOTS. WITH THAT SAID...THERMAL PROFILES ARE
MARGINAL FOR RAIN AND SNOW WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 30S. NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME SLEET COULD FALL OR EVEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN (MAINLY NORTHERN MD AND THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS).
HOWEVER WITHOUT A CLASSIC WARM NOSE...LIMITED TO ONLY RA/SN NOW. THE
AREAS OF MOST CONCERN FOR TEMPS ALSO HAVE LOWER CHANCE OF PRECIP.
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS COULD SEE AROUND AN
INCH OF SNOW...BUT MIXING IS EVEN POSSIBLE THERE.

THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL QUICKLY SLIDE SE BY MID
MONDAY MORNING. CAA WILL BE LIMITED AS LLVL FLOW REMAINS WESTERLY.
EFFICIENT MIXING WILL MEAN POSSIBLE GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH.
HIGHEST TERRAIN COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER...BUT APPEARS TO BE BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY BE WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAY...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S
EXCEPT IN THE HIGH TERRAIN (SIDED TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE SETTLED WEATHER BETWEEN SYSTEMS. NEXT UP IS
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SHOWN IN THE GFS AND EURO FAIRLY SIMILARLY. IT
PASSES SE THROUGH THE MID ATL ON TUESDAY DAY. LOW LVL THICKNESSES ON
BOTH ALSO SHOW ANY PRECIP BEING RAIN. GFS IS MOST BULLISH ON POPS.
WENT BETWEEN THAT AND THE LESS GENEROUS EURO. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE
LIGHT.

AFTER THAT HIGH MOVES QUICKLY OVER AND THEN TO OUR EAST WITH SW FLOW
DEVELOPING. THAT SHOULD BRING A COUPLE OF WARM DAYS TO THE REGION
THU AND FRI BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES IN AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK AND
BECOME SOUTHERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR
CATEGORY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF A PASSING SHOWER LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY...GREATEST AT CHO. IF PRECIP IS DOES DEVELOP AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS...IT IS POSSIBLE IT COULD BE A RA/SN MIX.
WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT AND GUST OF 20-30 KT
DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

MVFR POSSIBLE AT THE TERMINALS ON TUESDAY DAY WITH A CLIPPER PASSING
THROUGH. AFTER THAT...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THU. MVFR TO
POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS MAY MOVE IN LATE IN THE WEEK IN ADVANCE OF
THE LATE WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
OCCASIONAL NW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT CONTINUE THIS MORNING. THESE
SHOULD SUBSIDE GRADUALLY TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE SCA
WILL EXPIRE FROM NW TO SE. HV ALLOWED THE MID-UPR PTMC TO EXPIRE
AT 9AM. IT MAY STILL BE CLOSE NEAR THE 301 BRIDGE...BUT TRENDS ARE
DEFINITIVELY DOWN AS HIPRES BLDS. SCA FOR THE MID BAY REMAINS TIL
4PM...REST OF THE VALID WATERS EXPIRES AT NOON.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH THIS EVENING AND TURNS WINDS
SOUTHERLY. THESE WILL BEGIN TO CHANNEL UP THE BAY WITH ANOTHER SCA
GOING INTO EFFECT AT MIDNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS EARLY
MONDAY MORNING SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST AND PERHAPS BRINGING A
SHOWER. BEHIND THE FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 30 KT
THROUGH MONDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FROM MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE WINDS CAN SUBSIDE. LATER TUE INTO TUE EVE IS
ALSO A POSSIBILITY AFTER THE CLIPPER PASSES THROUGH WITH AN INCREASE
IN WINDS TO NEAR 20KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ530>532-
     537>540-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ533-
     534-541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CAS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...CAS
AVIATION...HTS/ADS/CAS
MARINE...HTS/ADS/CAS



000
FXUS61 KLWX 291350
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
950 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON
MONDAY. A REINFORCING CLIPPER LOW WILL PASS OVER THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT FOLLOWS WILL SLIDE TO OUR SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR WARM TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

SFC HIPRES CENTERED OVER WVA ATTM. RESULTS SEEN ON SATPIX
/PRACTICALLY CLEAR SKIES THRUT/ AND IN WIND FIELDS /WHICH ARE BGNG
TO DIMINISH SWIFTLY/. AS THE RIDGE PASSES BY...WE SHUD HV A MOSUN
DAY WL RELATIVELY LGT WINDS AND WARMER TEMPS...COMPARED TO YDA. A
CPL OF SMALL TWEAKS MADE TO DATABASE...OTRW GOING FCST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM QUICKLY APPROACHES
TONIGHT. SFC LOW AND BEST DYNAMIC LIFT WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER A STRONG LLJ WILL ACCOMPANY THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
AND BRING DECENT MOISTURE RETURN IN THE NARROW WARM SECTOR WHICH
WILL SPREAD EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT (INCREASE IN PWAT FROM AROUND 0.10
AT 00Z LAST EVENING UP TO AROUND 0.75 LATE TONIGHT). GIVEN
CONSISTENCY OF QPF RESPONSE IN MODEL GUIDANCE...FORECAST POPS HAVE
BEEN INCREASED QUITE A BIT...WITH EVERYONE AT LEAST 20 PCT NOW. THE
ORIENTATION OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WRT TO MOUNTAINS LENDS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER CHANCES EXIST FROM CENTRAL VA TO SOUTHERN MD...AND THE
GREATEST PROBS ARE IN THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL
FALL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST LIES IN P-TYPE (SHOULD ANY FALL).
WITH THE HIGH TO THE SE...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALREADY BE
ESTABLISHED...SO TEMP FALLS WILL BE RELATED TO NOCTURNAL AND WETBULB
PROCESSES (AMBIENT AIRMASS QUITE DRY). LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF 2M
TEMPS OVER MOS. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE TEMPS LEVEL OFF OR PERHAPS EVEN
SLIGHTLY RISE IN SOME SPOTS. WITH THAT SAID...THERMAL PROFILES ARE
MARGINAL FOR RAIN AND SNOW WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 30S. NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME SLEET COULD FALL OR EVEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN (MAINLY NORTHERN MD AND THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS).
HOWEVER WITHOUT A CLASSIC WARM NOSE...LIMITED TO ONLY RA/SN NOW. THE
AREAS OF MOST CONCERN FOR TEMPS ALSO HAVE LOWER CHANCE OF PRECIP.
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS COULD SEE AROUND AN
INCH OF SNOW...BUT MIXING IS EVEN POSSIBLE THERE.

THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL QUICKLY SLIDE SE BY MID
MONDAY MORNING. CAA WILL BE LIMITED AS LLVL FLOW REMAINS WESTERLY.
EFFICIENT MIXING WILL MEAN POSSIBLE GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH.
HIGHEST TERRAIN COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER...BUT APPEARS TO BE BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY BE WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAY...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S
EXCEPT IN THE HIGH TERRAIN (SIDED TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE SETTLED WEATHER BETWEEN SYSTEMS. NEXT UP IS
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SHOWN IN THE GFS AND EURO FAIRLY SIMILARLY. IT
PASSES SE THROUGH THE MID ATL ON TUESDAY DAY. LOW LVL THICKNESSES ON
BOTH ALSO SHOW ANY PRECIP BEING RAIN. GFS IS MOST BULLISH ON POPS.
WENT BETWEEN THAT AND THE LESS GENEROUS EURO. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE
LIGHT.

AFTER THAT HIGH MOVES QUICKLY OVER AND THEN TO OUR EAST WITH SW FLOW
DEVELOPING. THAT SHOULD BRING A COUPLE OF WARM DAYS TO THE REGION
THU AND FRI BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES IN AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK AND
BECOME SOUTHERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR
CATEGORY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF A PASSING SHOWER LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY...GREATEST AT CHO. IF PRECIP IS DOES DEVELOP AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS...IT IS POSSIBLE IT COULD BE A RA/SN MIX.
WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT AND GUST OF 20-30 KT
DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

MVFR POSSIBLE AT THE TERMINALS ON TUESDAY DAY WITH A CLIPPER PASSING
THROUGH. AFTER THAT...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THU. MVFR TO
POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS MAY MOVE IN LATE IN THE WEEK IN ADVANCE OF
THE LATE WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
OCCASIONAL NW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT CONTINUE THIS MORNING. THESE
SHOULD SUBSIDE GRADUALLY TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE SCA
WILL EXPIRE FROM NW TO SE. HV ALLOWED THE MID-UPR PTMC TO EXPIRE
AT 9AM. IT MAY STILL BE CLOSE NEAR THE 301 BRIDGE...BUT TRENDS ARE
DEFINITIVELY DOWN AS HIPRES BLDS. SCA FOR THE MID BAY REMAINS TIL
4PM...REST OF THE VALID WATERS EXPIRES AT NOON.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH THIS EVENING AND TURNS WINDS
SOUTHERLY. THESE WILL BEGIN TO CHANNEL UP THE BAY WITH ANOTHER SCA
GOING INTO EFFECT AT MIDNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS EARLY
MONDAY MORNING SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST AND PERHAPS BRINGING A
SHOWER. BEHIND THE FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 30 KT
THROUGH MONDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FROM MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE WINDS CAN SUBSIDE. LATER TUE INTO TUE EVE IS
ALSO A POSSIBILITY AFTER THE CLIPPER PASSES THROUGH WITH AN INCREASE
IN WINDS TO NEAR 20KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ530>532-
     537>540-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ533-
     534-541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CAS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...CAS
AVIATION...HTS/ADS/CAS
MARINE...HTS/ADS/CAS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 291319
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
919 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON
MONDAY. A REINFORCING CLIPPER LOW WILL PASS OVER THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT FOLLOWS WILL SLIDE TO OUR SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR WARM TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MS VALLEY. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. IT WILL BE A CLEAR
AND COLD START TO THE DAY...WITH ALL LOCATIONS BELOW THE 30F MARK.
THE HIGH WILL QUICKLY SLIDE TO THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY. DESPITE
LESSENING WINDS AND FULL SUN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS THERE WILL NOT BE RAPID WAA. DID SIDE WITH
WARMER GFS-BASED GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM QUICKLY APPROACHES
TONIGHT. SFC LOW AND BEST DYNAMIC LIFT WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER A STRONG LLJ WILL ACCOMPANY THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
AND BRING DECENT MOISTURE RETURN IN THE NARROW WARM SECTOR WHICH
WILL SPREAD EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT (INCREASE IN PWAT FROM AROUND 0.10
AT 00Z LAST EVENING UP TO AROUND 0.75 LATE TONIGHT). GIVEN
CONSISTENCY OF QPF RESPONSE IN MODEL GUIDANCE...FORECAST POPS HAVE
BEEN INCREASED QUITE A BIT...WITH EVERYONE AT LEAST 20 PCT NOW. THE
ORIENTATION OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WRT TO MOUNTAINS LENDS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER CHANCES EXIST FROM CENTRAL VA TO SOUTHERN MD...AND THE
GREATEST PROBS ARE IN THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL
FALL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST LIES IN P-TYPE (SHOULD ANY FALL).
WITH THE HIGH TO THE SE...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALREADY BE
ESTABLISHED...SO TEMP FALLS WILL BE RELATED TO NOCTURNAL AND WETBULB
PROCESSES (AMBIENT AIRMASS QUITE DRY). LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF 2M
TEMPS OVER MOS. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE TEMPS LEVEL OFF OR PERHAPS EVEN
SLIGHTLY RISE IN SOME SPOTS. WITH THAT SAID...THERMAL PROFILES ARE
MARGINAL FOR RAIN AND SNOW WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 30S. NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME SLEET COULD FALL OR EVEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN (MAINLY NORTHERN MD AND THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS).
HOWEVER WITHOUT A CLASSIC WARM NOSE...LIMITED TO ONLY RA/SN NOW. THE
AREAS OF MOST CONCERN FOR TEMPS ALSO HAVE LOWER CHANCE OF PRECIP.
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS COULD SEE AROUND AN
INCH OF SNOW...BUT MIXING IS EVEN POSSIBLE THERE.

THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL QUICKLY SLIDE SE BY MID
MONDAY MORNING. CAA WILL BE LIMITED AS LLVL FLOW REMAINS WESTERLY.
EFFICIENT MIXING WILL MEAN POSSIBLE GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH.
HIGHEST TERRAIN COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER...BUT APPEARS TO BE BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY BE WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAY...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S
EXCEPT IN THE HIGH TERRAIN (SIDED TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE SETTLED WEATHER BETWEEN SYSTEMS. NEXT UP IS
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SHOWN IN THE GFS AND EURO FAIRLY SIMILARLY. IT
PASSES SE THROUGH THE MID ATL ON TUESDAY DAY. LOW LVL THICKNESSES ON
BOTH ALSO SHOW ANY PRECIP BEING RAIN. GFS IS MOST BULLISH ON POPS.
WENT BETWEEN THAT AND THE LESS GENEROUS EURO. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE
LIGHT.

AFTER THAT HIGH MOVES QUICKLY OVER AND THEN TO OUR EAST WITH SW FLOW
DEVELOPING. THAT SHOULD BRING A COUPLE OF WARM DAYS TO THE REGION
THU AND FRI BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES IN AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE THREAT FOR GUSTS TO 20 KT WILL
DIMINISH THIS MORNING. THE NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK AND BECOME
SOUTHERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF A PASSING SHOWER LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY...GREATEST AT CHO. IF PRECIP IS DOES DEVELOP AT THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS...IT IS POSSIBLE IT COULD BE A RA/SN MIX. WESTERLY WINDS
INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT AND GUST OF 20-30 KT DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

MVFR POSSIBLE AT THE TERMINALS ON TUESDAY DAY WITH A CLIPPER PASSING
THROUGH. AFTER THAT...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THU. MVFR TO
POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS MAY MOVE IN LATE IN THE WEEK IN ADVANCE OF
THE LATE WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
OCCASIONAL NW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT CONTINUE THIS MORNING. THESE
SHOULD SUBSIDE GRADUALLY TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE SCA
WILL EXPIRE FROM NW TO SE. HV ALLOWED THE MID-UPR PTMC TO EXPIRE
AT 9AM. IT MAY STILL BE CLOSE NEAR THE 301 BRIDGE...BUT TRENDS ARE
DEFINITIVELY DOWN AS HIPRES BLDS. SCA FOR THE MID BAY REMAINS TIL
4PM...REST OF THE VALID WATERS EXPIRES AT NOON.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH THIS EVENING AND TURNS WINDS
SOUTHERLY. THESE WILL BEGIN TO CHANNEL UP THE BAY WITH ANOTHER SCA
GOING INTO EFFECT AT MIDNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS EARLY
MONDAY MORNING SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST AND PERHAPS BRINGING A
SHOWER. BEHIND THE FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 30 KT
THROUGH MONDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FROM MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE WINDS CAN SUBSIDE. LATER TUE INTO TUE EVE IS
ALSO A POSSIBILITY AFTER THE CLIPPER PASSES THROUGH WITH AN INCREASE
IN WINDS TO NEAR 20KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ530>532-
     537>540-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ533-
     534-541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CAS
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...CAS
AVIATION...ADS/CAS
MARINE...HTS/ADS/CAS



000
FXUS61 KLWX 291319
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
919 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON
MONDAY. A REINFORCING CLIPPER LOW WILL PASS OVER THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT FOLLOWS WILL SLIDE TO OUR SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR WARM TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MS VALLEY. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. IT WILL BE A CLEAR
AND COLD START TO THE DAY...WITH ALL LOCATIONS BELOW THE 30F MARK.
THE HIGH WILL QUICKLY SLIDE TO THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY. DESPITE
LESSENING WINDS AND FULL SUN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS THERE WILL NOT BE RAPID WAA. DID SIDE WITH
WARMER GFS-BASED GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM QUICKLY APPROACHES
TONIGHT. SFC LOW AND BEST DYNAMIC LIFT WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER A STRONG LLJ WILL ACCOMPANY THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
AND BRING DECENT MOISTURE RETURN IN THE NARROW WARM SECTOR WHICH
WILL SPREAD EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT (INCREASE IN PWAT FROM AROUND 0.10
AT 00Z LAST EVENING UP TO AROUND 0.75 LATE TONIGHT). GIVEN
CONSISTENCY OF QPF RESPONSE IN MODEL GUIDANCE...FORECAST POPS HAVE
BEEN INCREASED QUITE A BIT...WITH EVERYONE AT LEAST 20 PCT NOW. THE
ORIENTATION OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WRT TO MOUNTAINS LENDS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER CHANCES EXIST FROM CENTRAL VA TO SOUTHERN MD...AND THE
GREATEST PROBS ARE IN THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL
FALL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST LIES IN P-TYPE (SHOULD ANY FALL).
WITH THE HIGH TO THE SE...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALREADY BE
ESTABLISHED...SO TEMP FALLS WILL BE RELATED TO NOCTURNAL AND WETBULB
PROCESSES (AMBIENT AIRMASS QUITE DRY). LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF 2M
TEMPS OVER MOS. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE TEMPS LEVEL OFF OR PERHAPS EVEN
SLIGHTLY RISE IN SOME SPOTS. WITH THAT SAID...THERMAL PROFILES ARE
MARGINAL FOR RAIN AND SNOW WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 30S. NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME SLEET COULD FALL OR EVEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN (MAINLY NORTHERN MD AND THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS).
HOWEVER WITHOUT A CLASSIC WARM NOSE...LIMITED TO ONLY RA/SN NOW. THE
AREAS OF MOST CONCERN FOR TEMPS ALSO HAVE LOWER CHANCE OF PRECIP.
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS COULD SEE AROUND AN
INCH OF SNOW...BUT MIXING IS EVEN POSSIBLE THERE.

THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL QUICKLY SLIDE SE BY MID
MONDAY MORNING. CAA WILL BE LIMITED AS LLVL FLOW REMAINS WESTERLY.
EFFICIENT MIXING WILL MEAN POSSIBLE GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH.
HIGHEST TERRAIN COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER...BUT APPEARS TO BE BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY BE WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAY...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S
EXCEPT IN THE HIGH TERRAIN (SIDED TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE SETTLED WEATHER BETWEEN SYSTEMS. NEXT UP IS
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SHOWN IN THE GFS AND EURO FAIRLY SIMILARLY. IT
PASSES SE THROUGH THE MID ATL ON TUESDAY DAY. LOW LVL THICKNESSES ON
BOTH ALSO SHOW ANY PRECIP BEING RAIN. GFS IS MOST BULLISH ON POPS.
WENT BETWEEN THAT AND THE LESS GENEROUS EURO. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE
LIGHT.

AFTER THAT HIGH MOVES QUICKLY OVER AND THEN TO OUR EAST WITH SW FLOW
DEVELOPING. THAT SHOULD BRING A COUPLE OF WARM DAYS TO THE REGION
THU AND FRI BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES IN AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE THREAT FOR GUSTS TO 20 KT WILL
DIMINISH THIS MORNING. THE NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK AND BECOME
SOUTHERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF A PASSING SHOWER LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY...GREATEST AT CHO. IF PRECIP IS DOES DEVELOP AT THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS...IT IS POSSIBLE IT COULD BE A RA/SN MIX. WESTERLY WINDS
INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT AND GUST OF 20-30 KT DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

MVFR POSSIBLE AT THE TERMINALS ON TUESDAY DAY WITH A CLIPPER PASSING
THROUGH. AFTER THAT...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THU. MVFR TO
POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS MAY MOVE IN LATE IN THE WEEK IN ADVANCE OF
THE LATE WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
OCCASIONAL NW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT CONTINUE THIS MORNING. THESE
SHOULD SUBSIDE GRADUALLY TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE SCA
WILL EXPIRE FROM NW TO SE. HV ALLOWED THE MID-UPR PTMC TO EXPIRE
AT 9AM. IT MAY STILL BE CLOSE NEAR THE 301 BRIDGE...BUT TRENDS ARE
DEFINITIVELY DOWN AS HIPRES BLDS. SCA FOR THE MID BAY REMAINS TIL
4PM...REST OF THE VALID WATERS EXPIRES AT NOON.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH THIS EVENING AND TURNS WINDS
SOUTHERLY. THESE WILL BEGIN TO CHANNEL UP THE BAY WITH ANOTHER SCA
GOING INTO EFFECT AT MIDNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS EARLY
MONDAY MORNING SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST AND PERHAPS BRINGING A
SHOWER. BEHIND THE FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 30 KT
THROUGH MONDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FROM MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE WINDS CAN SUBSIDE. LATER TUE INTO TUE EVE IS
ALSO A POSSIBILITY AFTER THE CLIPPER PASSES THROUGH WITH AN INCREASE
IN WINDS TO NEAR 20KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ530>532-
     537>540-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ533-
     534-541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CAS
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...CAS
AVIATION...ADS/CAS
MARINE...HTS/ADS/CAS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 291319
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
919 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON
MONDAY. A REINFORCING CLIPPER LOW WILL PASS OVER THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT FOLLOWS WILL SLIDE TO OUR SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR WARM TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MS VALLEY. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. IT WILL BE A CLEAR
AND COLD START TO THE DAY...WITH ALL LOCATIONS BELOW THE 30F MARK.
THE HIGH WILL QUICKLY SLIDE TO THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY. DESPITE
LESSENING WINDS AND FULL SUN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS THERE WILL NOT BE RAPID WAA. DID SIDE WITH
WARMER GFS-BASED GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM QUICKLY APPROACHES
TONIGHT. SFC LOW AND BEST DYNAMIC LIFT WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER A STRONG LLJ WILL ACCOMPANY THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
AND BRING DECENT MOISTURE RETURN IN THE NARROW WARM SECTOR WHICH
WILL SPREAD EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT (INCREASE IN PWAT FROM AROUND 0.10
AT 00Z LAST EVENING UP TO AROUND 0.75 LATE TONIGHT). GIVEN
CONSISTENCY OF QPF RESPONSE IN MODEL GUIDANCE...FORECAST POPS HAVE
BEEN INCREASED QUITE A BIT...WITH EVERYONE AT LEAST 20 PCT NOW. THE
ORIENTATION OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WRT TO MOUNTAINS LENDS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER CHANCES EXIST FROM CENTRAL VA TO SOUTHERN MD...AND THE
GREATEST PROBS ARE IN THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL
FALL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST LIES IN P-TYPE (SHOULD ANY FALL).
WITH THE HIGH TO THE SE...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALREADY BE
ESTABLISHED...SO TEMP FALLS WILL BE RELATED TO NOCTURNAL AND WETBULB
PROCESSES (AMBIENT AIRMASS QUITE DRY). LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF 2M
TEMPS OVER MOS. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE TEMPS LEVEL OFF OR PERHAPS EVEN
SLIGHTLY RISE IN SOME SPOTS. WITH THAT SAID...THERMAL PROFILES ARE
MARGINAL FOR RAIN AND SNOW WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 30S. NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME SLEET COULD FALL OR EVEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN (MAINLY NORTHERN MD AND THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS).
HOWEVER WITHOUT A CLASSIC WARM NOSE...LIMITED TO ONLY RA/SN NOW. THE
AREAS OF MOST CONCERN FOR TEMPS ALSO HAVE LOWER CHANCE OF PRECIP.
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS COULD SEE AROUND AN
INCH OF SNOW...BUT MIXING IS EVEN POSSIBLE THERE.

THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL QUICKLY SLIDE SE BY MID
MONDAY MORNING. CAA WILL BE LIMITED AS LLVL FLOW REMAINS WESTERLY.
EFFICIENT MIXING WILL MEAN POSSIBLE GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH.
HIGHEST TERRAIN COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER...BUT APPEARS TO BE BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY BE WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAY...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S
EXCEPT IN THE HIGH TERRAIN (SIDED TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE SETTLED WEATHER BETWEEN SYSTEMS. NEXT UP IS
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SHOWN IN THE GFS AND EURO FAIRLY SIMILARLY. IT
PASSES SE THROUGH THE MID ATL ON TUESDAY DAY. LOW LVL THICKNESSES ON
BOTH ALSO SHOW ANY PRECIP BEING RAIN. GFS IS MOST BULLISH ON POPS.
WENT BETWEEN THAT AND THE LESS GENEROUS EURO. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE
LIGHT.

AFTER THAT HIGH MOVES QUICKLY OVER AND THEN TO OUR EAST WITH SW FLOW
DEVELOPING. THAT SHOULD BRING A COUPLE OF WARM DAYS TO THE REGION
THU AND FRI BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES IN AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE THREAT FOR GUSTS TO 20 KT WILL
DIMINISH THIS MORNING. THE NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK AND BECOME
SOUTHERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF A PASSING SHOWER LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY...GREATEST AT CHO. IF PRECIP IS DOES DEVELOP AT THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS...IT IS POSSIBLE IT COULD BE A RA/SN MIX. WESTERLY WINDS
INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT AND GUST OF 20-30 KT DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

MVFR POSSIBLE AT THE TERMINALS ON TUESDAY DAY WITH A CLIPPER PASSING
THROUGH. AFTER THAT...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THU. MVFR TO
POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS MAY MOVE IN LATE IN THE WEEK IN ADVANCE OF
THE LATE WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
OCCASIONAL NW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT CONTINUE THIS MORNING. THESE
SHOULD SUBSIDE GRADUALLY TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE SCA
WILL EXPIRE FROM NW TO SE. HV ALLOWED THE MID-UPR PTMC TO EXPIRE
AT 9AM. IT MAY STILL BE CLOSE NEAR THE 301 BRIDGE...BUT TRENDS ARE
DEFINITIVELY DOWN AS HIPRES BLDS. SCA FOR THE MID BAY REMAINS TIL
4PM...REST OF THE VALID WATERS EXPIRES AT NOON.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH THIS EVENING AND TURNS WINDS
SOUTHERLY. THESE WILL BEGIN TO CHANNEL UP THE BAY WITH ANOTHER SCA
GOING INTO EFFECT AT MIDNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS EARLY
MONDAY MORNING SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST AND PERHAPS BRINGING A
SHOWER. BEHIND THE FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 30 KT
THROUGH MONDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FROM MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE WINDS CAN SUBSIDE. LATER TUE INTO TUE EVE IS
ALSO A POSSIBILITY AFTER THE CLIPPER PASSES THROUGH WITH AN INCREASE
IN WINDS TO NEAR 20KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ530>532-
     537>540-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ533-
     534-541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CAS
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...CAS
AVIATION...ADS/CAS
MARINE...HTS/ADS/CAS



000
FXUS61 KLWX 291319
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
919 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON
MONDAY. A REINFORCING CLIPPER LOW WILL PASS OVER THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT FOLLOWS WILL SLIDE TO OUR SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR WARM TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MS VALLEY. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. IT WILL BE A CLEAR
AND COLD START TO THE DAY...WITH ALL LOCATIONS BELOW THE 30F MARK.
THE HIGH WILL QUICKLY SLIDE TO THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY. DESPITE
LESSENING WINDS AND FULL SUN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS THERE WILL NOT BE RAPID WAA. DID SIDE WITH
WARMER GFS-BASED GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM QUICKLY APPROACHES
TONIGHT. SFC LOW AND BEST DYNAMIC LIFT WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER A STRONG LLJ WILL ACCOMPANY THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
AND BRING DECENT MOISTURE RETURN IN THE NARROW WARM SECTOR WHICH
WILL SPREAD EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT (INCREASE IN PWAT FROM AROUND 0.10
AT 00Z LAST EVENING UP TO AROUND 0.75 LATE TONIGHT). GIVEN
CONSISTENCY OF QPF RESPONSE IN MODEL GUIDANCE...FORECAST POPS HAVE
BEEN INCREASED QUITE A BIT...WITH EVERYONE AT LEAST 20 PCT NOW. THE
ORIENTATION OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WRT TO MOUNTAINS LENDS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER CHANCES EXIST FROM CENTRAL VA TO SOUTHERN MD...AND THE
GREATEST PROBS ARE IN THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL
FALL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST LIES IN P-TYPE (SHOULD ANY FALL).
WITH THE HIGH TO THE SE...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALREADY BE
ESTABLISHED...SO TEMP FALLS WILL BE RELATED TO NOCTURNAL AND WETBULB
PROCESSES (AMBIENT AIRMASS QUITE DRY). LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF 2M
TEMPS OVER MOS. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE TEMPS LEVEL OFF OR PERHAPS EVEN
SLIGHTLY RISE IN SOME SPOTS. WITH THAT SAID...THERMAL PROFILES ARE
MARGINAL FOR RAIN AND SNOW WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 30S. NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME SLEET COULD FALL OR EVEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN (MAINLY NORTHERN MD AND THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS).
HOWEVER WITHOUT A CLASSIC WARM NOSE...LIMITED TO ONLY RA/SN NOW. THE
AREAS OF MOST CONCERN FOR TEMPS ALSO HAVE LOWER CHANCE OF PRECIP.
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS COULD SEE AROUND AN
INCH OF SNOW...BUT MIXING IS EVEN POSSIBLE THERE.

THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL QUICKLY SLIDE SE BY MID
MONDAY MORNING. CAA WILL BE LIMITED AS LLVL FLOW REMAINS WESTERLY.
EFFICIENT MIXING WILL MEAN POSSIBLE GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH.
HIGHEST TERRAIN COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER...BUT APPEARS TO BE BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY BE WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAY...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S
EXCEPT IN THE HIGH TERRAIN (SIDED TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE SETTLED WEATHER BETWEEN SYSTEMS. NEXT UP IS
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SHOWN IN THE GFS AND EURO FAIRLY SIMILARLY. IT
PASSES SE THROUGH THE MID ATL ON TUESDAY DAY. LOW LVL THICKNESSES ON
BOTH ALSO SHOW ANY PRECIP BEING RAIN. GFS IS MOST BULLISH ON POPS.
WENT BETWEEN THAT AND THE LESS GENEROUS EURO. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE
LIGHT.

AFTER THAT HIGH MOVES QUICKLY OVER AND THEN TO OUR EAST WITH SW FLOW
DEVELOPING. THAT SHOULD BRING A COUPLE OF WARM DAYS TO THE REGION
THU AND FRI BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES IN AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE THREAT FOR GUSTS TO 20 KT WILL
DIMINISH THIS MORNING. THE NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK AND BECOME
SOUTHERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF A PASSING SHOWER LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY...GREATEST AT CHO. IF PRECIP IS DOES DEVELOP AT THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS...IT IS POSSIBLE IT COULD BE A RA/SN MIX. WESTERLY WINDS
INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT AND GUST OF 20-30 KT DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

MVFR POSSIBLE AT THE TERMINALS ON TUESDAY DAY WITH A CLIPPER PASSING
THROUGH. AFTER THAT...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THU. MVFR TO
POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS MAY MOVE IN LATE IN THE WEEK IN ADVANCE OF
THE LATE WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
OCCASIONAL NW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT CONTINUE THIS MORNING. THESE
SHOULD SUBSIDE GRADUALLY TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE SCA
WILL EXPIRE FROM NW TO SE. HV ALLOWED THE MID-UPR PTMC TO EXPIRE
AT 9AM. IT MAY STILL BE CLOSE NEAR THE 301 BRIDGE...BUT TRENDS ARE
DEFINITIVELY DOWN AS HIPRES BLDS. SCA FOR THE MID BAY REMAINS TIL
4PM...REST OF THE VALID WATERS EXPIRES AT NOON.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH THIS EVENING AND TURNS WINDS
SOUTHERLY. THESE WILL BEGIN TO CHANNEL UP THE BAY WITH ANOTHER SCA
GOING INTO EFFECT AT MIDNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS EARLY
MONDAY MORNING SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST AND PERHAPS BRINGING A
SHOWER. BEHIND THE FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 30 KT
THROUGH MONDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FROM MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE WINDS CAN SUBSIDE. LATER TUE INTO TUE EVE IS
ALSO A POSSIBILITY AFTER THE CLIPPER PASSES THROUGH WITH AN INCREASE
IN WINDS TO NEAR 20KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ530>532-
     537>540-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ533-
     534-541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CAS
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...CAS
AVIATION...ADS/CAS
MARINE...HTS/ADS/CAS



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KRNK 291311
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
911 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
TODAY AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST AND CROSS THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING. A SECOND FRONT AND CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 905 AM EDT SUNDAY...

IT IS A VERY COLD MORNING ACROSS OUR REGION. RER OUT WITH RECORD
LOWS THAT WERE BROKEN OR TIED THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND THEN OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL...LEANED
TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE LAV VALUES FOR LATE MORNING. MORE CHANGES
LATER TODAY. ENJOY YOUR SUNDAY.


AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THIS MORNING HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER WEST VIRGINIA. WINDS
HAVE DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY SINCE MIDNIGHT BUT HIGHEST ELEVATIONS
STILL HAD GUSTS 15 TO 20 MPH. SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. LOCAL PROFILER CONTINUED TO SHOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BELOW 0.10 INCH. VERY DRY AIR MASS AND
FULL SUNSHINE TODAY WILL LEAD TO A LARGE TEMPERATURE RISE. IN
ADDITION...850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL START TO MODERATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WINDS COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.
STAYED CLOSER TO WARMER GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.

CLOUD COVER SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION. HAVE ADJUSTED ONSET TIME
OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL 03Z/11PM AND INCREASED PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION TOWARD 12Z/8AM. MODELS SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER
RISING ABOVE 0.50 INCH. HAVE KEPT QPF WITH THIS FEATURE UNDER ONE
QUARTER OF AND INCH.

WINDS PICK UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT BUFKIT SHOWED STRONGEST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND REMAINING
ABOVE THE INVERSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SUNDAY...

EXPECT TO START MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE AREA...
TRIGGERING A BROKEN LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS MAKING ITS WAY EAST ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT
AS WINDS SHIFT WEST NORTHWESTERLY/DOWNSLOPE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PACIFIC IN
ORIGIN...LACKING THE COLDER CHARACTERISTICS OF THE CANADIAN
AIRMASSES WE HAVE ALL BECOME FAMILIAR WITH OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS.
AS SUCH...AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE DECREASING CLOUD COVER HEADING
INTO THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE
LOW/MID 50S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...TO THE MID 60S ACROSS
THE SOUTHSIDE.

WINDS WILL SHIFT INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY DURING LATE MONDAY
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE ADVANCES OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES...AND AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SWINGS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS TO RANGE FROM
THE LOW/MID 60S WEST...TO THE UPPER 60S EAST...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. DURING TUESDAY EVENING...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS
ACROSS LOWER NEW ENGLAND...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC. MAY SEE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN
RIDGES...HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...AND SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT...PUSHING OVER NEW ENGLAND AND WEDGING AGAINST THE
EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS. WINDS WILL SHIFT INCREASINGLY
SOUTHERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH
EAST...AND MAY SEE PATCHY DRIZZLE/FOG DEVELOP BEFORE DAWN THURSDAY
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE PUSHES UPSLOPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEPART EASTWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST THURSDAY MORNING...WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE PUSHING NWD ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE PER SE FLOW. WITH MODEST INSTABILITY PRESENT...
LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF RAIN FROM ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...WITH POSSIBLY EWD EXTENT INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA PER FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC EARLY ON IN THE DAY...BEFORE VEERING WINDS TURN MORE
SW. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE MILD BUT COULD BE COOLER PER MORE CLOUDS
AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. IF THE HIGH SLOWS DOWN OR SHIFTS FURTHER
NORTH...THUS ALLOWING LONGER EASTERLY FETCH...THEN TEMPS COULD BE 5-
10 DEGREES COOLER OUT EAST....BUT STILL NEAR NORMAL.

AS WE HEAD INTO THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY THE FORECAST VARIES...THOUGH
THE NEW 12Z ECMWF SHOWS SIMILAR SETUP THAT THE 12Z GFS DOES WITH
FRONT ORIENTATION SETTING UP IN AN EAST-WEST FASHION WITH PARALLEL
FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS GOING TO KEEP THE AREA IN A UNSETTLED PATTERN
WITH NEXT MAIN LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY ARRIVING OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE
DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS IS THAT THE ECMWF SHOWS A STRONGER LOW
MOVING MORE NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE GFS HAS WEAKER
LOW MOVING ACROSS WV INTO NRN VA. THE ECMWF SOLUTION AS SUCH HAS
LESS QPF THAN THE GFS. NONETHELESS THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE COLD
THOUGH THE ECWMF IS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED AND COLDER THAN THE GFS.
COULD SEE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MTNS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
TODAY AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE WEST MONDAY MORNING.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING THEN
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY HAVE GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MAINLY AFTER 00Z/8PM. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
DURING THE TAF PERIOD. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT CEILINGS WILL DROP
TO MVFR IN THE MOUNTAINS AS THE RAIN ARRIVES.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE IN
THE MOUNTAINS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.

THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY AS ANOTHER CLIPPER SLIDES ACROSS FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY LINGERING MOUNTAIN UPSLOPE DRIVEN MVFR
CIGS ON TUESDAY.

MOISTURE WILL AGAIN INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 455 AM EDT FRIDAY...

RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 29:

ROANOKE......19 IN 1982
BLACKSBURG...17 IN 2001
LYNCHBURG....23 IN 1923 AND 1982
DANVILLE.....23 IN 1966
BLUEFIELD....19 IN 1966 AND 1982
LEWISBURG....18 IN 1983

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS
CLIMATE...AMS/SK




000
FXUS61 KRNK 291311
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
911 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
TODAY AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST AND CROSS THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING. A SECOND FRONT AND CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 905 AM EDT SUNDAY...

IT IS A VERY COLD MORNING ACROSS OUR REGION. RER OUT WITH RECORD
LOWS THAT WERE BROKEN OR TIED THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND THEN OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL...LEANED
TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE LAV VALUES FOR LATE MORNING. MORE CHANGES
LATER TODAY. ENJOY YOUR SUNDAY.


AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THIS MORNING HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER WEST VIRGINIA. WINDS
HAVE DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY SINCE MIDNIGHT BUT HIGHEST ELEVATIONS
STILL HAD GUSTS 15 TO 20 MPH. SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. LOCAL PROFILER CONTINUED TO SHOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BELOW 0.10 INCH. VERY DRY AIR MASS AND
FULL SUNSHINE TODAY WILL LEAD TO A LARGE TEMPERATURE RISE. IN
ADDITION...850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL START TO MODERATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WINDS COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.
STAYED CLOSER TO WARMER GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.

CLOUD COVER SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION. HAVE ADJUSTED ONSET TIME
OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL 03Z/11PM AND INCREASED PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION TOWARD 12Z/8AM. MODELS SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER
RISING ABOVE 0.50 INCH. HAVE KEPT QPF WITH THIS FEATURE UNDER ONE
QUARTER OF AND INCH.

WINDS PICK UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT BUFKIT SHOWED STRONGEST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND REMAINING
ABOVE THE INVERSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SUNDAY...

EXPECT TO START MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE AREA...
TRIGGERING A BROKEN LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS MAKING ITS WAY EAST ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT
AS WINDS SHIFT WEST NORTHWESTERLY/DOWNSLOPE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PACIFIC IN
ORIGIN...LACKING THE COLDER CHARACTERISTICS OF THE CANADIAN
AIRMASSES WE HAVE ALL BECOME FAMILIAR WITH OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS.
AS SUCH...AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE DECREASING CLOUD COVER HEADING
INTO THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE
LOW/MID 50S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...TO THE MID 60S ACROSS
THE SOUTHSIDE.

WINDS WILL SHIFT INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY DURING LATE MONDAY
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE ADVANCES OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES...AND AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SWINGS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS TO RANGE FROM
THE LOW/MID 60S WEST...TO THE UPPER 60S EAST...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. DURING TUESDAY EVENING...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS
ACROSS LOWER NEW ENGLAND...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC. MAY SEE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN
RIDGES...HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...AND SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT...PUSHING OVER NEW ENGLAND AND WEDGING AGAINST THE
EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS. WINDS WILL SHIFT INCREASINGLY
SOUTHERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH
EAST...AND MAY SEE PATCHY DRIZZLE/FOG DEVELOP BEFORE DAWN THURSDAY
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE PUSHES UPSLOPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEPART EASTWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST THURSDAY MORNING...WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE PUSHING NWD ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE PER SE FLOW. WITH MODEST INSTABILITY PRESENT...
LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF RAIN FROM ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...WITH POSSIBLY EWD EXTENT INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA PER FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC EARLY ON IN THE DAY...BEFORE VEERING WINDS TURN MORE
SW. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE MILD BUT COULD BE COOLER PER MORE CLOUDS
AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. IF THE HIGH SLOWS DOWN OR SHIFTS FURTHER
NORTH...THUS ALLOWING LONGER EASTERLY FETCH...THEN TEMPS COULD BE 5-
10 DEGREES COOLER OUT EAST....BUT STILL NEAR NORMAL.

AS WE HEAD INTO THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY THE FORECAST VARIES...THOUGH
THE NEW 12Z ECMWF SHOWS SIMILAR SETUP THAT THE 12Z GFS DOES WITH
FRONT ORIENTATION SETTING UP IN AN EAST-WEST FASHION WITH PARALLEL
FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS GOING TO KEEP THE AREA IN A UNSETTLED PATTERN
WITH NEXT MAIN LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY ARRIVING OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE
DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS IS THAT THE ECMWF SHOWS A STRONGER LOW
MOVING MORE NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE GFS HAS WEAKER
LOW MOVING ACROSS WV INTO NRN VA. THE ECMWF SOLUTION AS SUCH HAS
LESS QPF THAN THE GFS. NONETHELESS THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE COLD
THOUGH THE ECWMF IS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED AND COLDER THAN THE GFS.
COULD SEE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MTNS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
TODAY AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE WEST MONDAY MORNING.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING THEN
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY HAVE GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MAINLY AFTER 00Z/8PM. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
DURING THE TAF PERIOD. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT CEILINGS WILL DROP
TO MVFR IN THE MOUNTAINS AS THE RAIN ARRIVES.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE IN
THE MOUNTAINS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.

THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY AS ANOTHER CLIPPER SLIDES ACROSS FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY LINGERING MOUNTAIN UPSLOPE DRIVEN MVFR
CIGS ON TUESDAY.

MOISTURE WILL AGAIN INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 455 AM EDT FRIDAY...

RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 29:

ROANOKE......19 IN 1982
BLACKSBURG...17 IN 2001
LYNCHBURG....23 IN 1923 AND 1982
DANVILLE.....23 IN 1966
BLUEFIELD....19 IN 1966 AND 1982
LEWISBURG....18 IN 1983

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS
CLIMATE...AMS/SK



000
FXUS61 KRNK 291311
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
911 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
TODAY AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST AND CROSS THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING. A SECOND FRONT AND CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 905 AM EDT SUNDAY...

IT IS A VERY COLD MORNING ACROSS OUR REGION. RER OUT WITH RECORD
LOWS THAT WERE BROKEN OR TIED THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND THEN OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL...LEANED
TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE LAV VALUES FOR LATE MORNING. MORE CHANGES
LATER TODAY. ENJOY YOUR SUNDAY.


AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THIS MORNING HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER WEST VIRGINIA. WINDS
HAVE DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY SINCE MIDNIGHT BUT HIGHEST ELEVATIONS
STILL HAD GUSTS 15 TO 20 MPH. SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. LOCAL PROFILER CONTINUED TO SHOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BELOW 0.10 INCH. VERY DRY AIR MASS AND
FULL SUNSHINE TODAY WILL LEAD TO A LARGE TEMPERATURE RISE. IN
ADDITION...850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL START TO MODERATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WINDS COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.
STAYED CLOSER TO WARMER GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.

CLOUD COVER SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION. HAVE ADJUSTED ONSET TIME
OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL 03Z/11PM AND INCREASED PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION TOWARD 12Z/8AM. MODELS SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER
RISING ABOVE 0.50 INCH. HAVE KEPT QPF WITH THIS FEATURE UNDER ONE
QUARTER OF AND INCH.

WINDS PICK UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT BUFKIT SHOWED STRONGEST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND REMAINING
ABOVE THE INVERSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SUNDAY...

EXPECT TO START MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE AREA...
TRIGGERING A BROKEN LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS MAKING ITS WAY EAST ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT
AS WINDS SHIFT WEST NORTHWESTERLY/DOWNSLOPE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PACIFIC IN
ORIGIN...LACKING THE COLDER CHARACTERISTICS OF THE CANADIAN
AIRMASSES WE HAVE ALL BECOME FAMILIAR WITH OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS.
AS SUCH...AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE DECREASING CLOUD COVER HEADING
INTO THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE
LOW/MID 50S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...TO THE MID 60S ACROSS
THE SOUTHSIDE.

WINDS WILL SHIFT INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY DURING LATE MONDAY
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE ADVANCES OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES...AND AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SWINGS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS TO RANGE FROM
THE LOW/MID 60S WEST...TO THE UPPER 60S EAST...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. DURING TUESDAY EVENING...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS
ACROSS LOWER NEW ENGLAND...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC. MAY SEE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN
RIDGES...HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...AND SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT...PUSHING OVER NEW ENGLAND AND WEDGING AGAINST THE
EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS. WINDS WILL SHIFT INCREASINGLY
SOUTHERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH
EAST...AND MAY SEE PATCHY DRIZZLE/FOG DEVELOP BEFORE DAWN THURSDAY
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE PUSHES UPSLOPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEPART EASTWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST THURSDAY MORNING...WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE PUSHING NWD ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE PER SE FLOW. WITH MODEST INSTABILITY PRESENT...
LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF RAIN FROM ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...WITH POSSIBLY EWD EXTENT INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA PER FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC EARLY ON IN THE DAY...BEFORE VEERING WINDS TURN MORE
SW. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE MILD BUT COULD BE COOLER PER MORE CLOUDS
AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. IF THE HIGH SLOWS DOWN OR SHIFTS FURTHER
NORTH...THUS ALLOWING LONGER EASTERLY FETCH...THEN TEMPS COULD BE 5-
10 DEGREES COOLER OUT EAST....BUT STILL NEAR NORMAL.

AS WE HEAD INTO THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY THE FORECAST VARIES...THOUGH
THE NEW 12Z ECMWF SHOWS SIMILAR SETUP THAT THE 12Z GFS DOES WITH
FRONT ORIENTATION SETTING UP IN AN EAST-WEST FASHION WITH PARALLEL
FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS GOING TO KEEP THE AREA IN A UNSETTLED PATTERN
WITH NEXT MAIN LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY ARRIVING OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE
DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS IS THAT THE ECMWF SHOWS A STRONGER LOW
MOVING MORE NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE GFS HAS WEAKER
LOW MOVING ACROSS WV INTO NRN VA. THE ECMWF SOLUTION AS SUCH HAS
LESS QPF THAN THE GFS. NONETHELESS THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE COLD
THOUGH THE ECWMF IS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED AND COLDER THAN THE GFS.
COULD SEE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MTNS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
TODAY AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE WEST MONDAY MORNING.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING THEN
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY HAVE GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MAINLY AFTER 00Z/8PM. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
DURING THE TAF PERIOD. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT CEILINGS WILL DROP
TO MVFR IN THE MOUNTAINS AS THE RAIN ARRIVES.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE IN
THE MOUNTAINS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.

THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY AS ANOTHER CLIPPER SLIDES ACROSS FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY LINGERING MOUNTAIN UPSLOPE DRIVEN MVFR
CIGS ON TUESDAY.

MOISTURE WILL AGAIN INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 455 AM EDT FRIDAY...

RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 29:

ROANOKE......19 IN 1982
BLACKSBURG...17 IN 2001
LYNCHBURG....23 IN 1923 AND 1982
DANVILLE.....23 IN 1966
BLUEFIELD....19 IN 1966 AND 1982
LEWISBURG....18 IN 1983

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS
CLIMATE...AMS/SK




000
FXUS61 KRNK 291311
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
911 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
TODAY AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST AND CROSS THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING. A SECOND FRONT AND CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 905 AM EDT SUNDAY...

IT IS A VERY COLD MORNING ACROSS OUR REGION. RER OUT WITH RECORD
LOWS THAT WERE BROKEN OR TIED THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND THEN OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL...LEANED
TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE LAV VALUES FOR LATE MORNING. MORE CHANGES
LATER TODAY. ENJOY YOUR SUNDAY.


AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THIS MORNING HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER WEST VIRGINIA. WINDS
HAVE DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY SINCE MIDNIGHT BUT HIGHEST ELEVATIONS
STILL HAD GUSTS 15 TO 20 MPH. SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. LOCAL PROFILER CONTINUED TO SHOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BELOW 0.10 INCH. VERY DRY AIR MASS AND
FULL SUNSHINE TODAY WILL LEAD TO A LARGE TEMPERATURE RISE. IN
ADDITION...850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL START TO MODERATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WINDS COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.
STAYED CLOSER TO WARMER GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.

CLOUD COVER SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION. HAVE ADJUSTED ONSET TIME
OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL 03Z/11PM AND INCREASED PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION TOWARD 12Z/8AM. MODELS SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER
RISING ABOVE 0.50 INCH. HAVE KEPT QPF WITH THIS FEATURE UNDER ONE
QUARTER OF AND INCH.

WINDS PICK UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT BUFKIT SHOWED STRONGEST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND REMAINING
ABOVE THE INVERSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SUNDAY...

EXPECT TO START MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE AREA...
TRIGGERING A BROKEN LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS MAKING ITS WAY EAST ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT
AS WINDS SHIFT WEST NORTHWESTERLY/DOWNSLOPE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PACIFIC IN
ORIGIN...LACKING THE COLDER CHARACTERISTICS OF THE CANADIAN
AIRMASSES WE HAVE ALL BECOME FAMILIAR WITH OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS.
AS SUCH...AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE DECREASING CLOUD COVER HEADING
INTO THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE
LOW/MID 50S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...TO THE MID 60S ACROSS
THE SOUTHSIDE.

WINDS WILL SHIFT INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY DURING LATE MONDAY
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE ADVANCES OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES...AND AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SWINGS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS TO RANGE FROM
THE LOW/MID 60S WEST...TO THE UPPER 60S EAST...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. DURING TUESDAY EVENING...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS
ACROSS LOWER NEW ENGLAND...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC. MAY SEE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN
RIDGES...HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...AND SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT...PUSHING OVER NEW ENGLAND AND WEDGING AGAINST THE
EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS. WINDS WILL SHIFT INCREASINGLY
SOUTHERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH
EAST...AND MAY SEE PATCHY DRIZZLE/FOG DEVELOP BEFORE DAWN THURSDAY
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE PUSHES UPSLOPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEPART EASTWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST THURSDAY MORNING...WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE PUSHING NWD ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE PER SE FLOW. WITH MODEST INSTABILITY PRESENT...
LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF RAIN FROM ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...WITH POSSIBLY EWD EXTENT INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA PER FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC EARLY ON IN THE DAY...BEFORE VEERING WINDS TURN MORE
SW. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE MILD BUT COULD BE COOLER PER MORE CLOUDS
AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. IF THE HIGH SLOWS DOWN OR SHIFTS FURTHER
NORTH...THUS ALLOWING LONGER EASTERLY FETCH...THEN TEMPS COULD BE 5-
10 DEGREES COOLER OUT EAST....BUT STILL NEAR NORMAL.

AS WE HEAD INTO THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY THE FORECAST VARIES...THOUGH
THE NEW 12Z ECMWF SHOWS SIMILAR SETUP THAT THE 12Z GFS DOES WITH
FRONT ORIENTATION SETTING UP IN AN EAST-WEST FASHION WITH PARALLEL
FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS GOING TO KEEP THE AREA IN A UNSETTLED PATTERN
WITH NEXT MAIN LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY ARRIVING OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE
DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS IS THAT THE ECMWF SHOWS A STRONGER LOW
MOVING MORE NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE GFS HAS WEAKER
LOW MOVING ACROSS WV INTO NRN VA. THE ECMWF SOLUTION AS SUCH HAS
LESS QPF THAN THE GFS. NONETHELESS THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE COLD
THOUGH THE ECWMF IS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED AND COLDER THAN THE GFS.
COULD SEE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MTNS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
TODAY AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE WEST MONDAY MORNING.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING THEN
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY HAVE GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MAINLY AFTER 00Z/8PM. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
DURING THE TAF PERIOD. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT CEILINGS WILL DROP
TO MVFR IN THE MOUNTAINS AS THE RAIN ARRIVES.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE IN
THE MOUNTAINS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.

THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY AS ANOTHER CLIPPER SLIDES ACROSS FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY LINGERING MOUNTAIN UPSLOPE DRIVEN MVFR
CIGS ON TUESDAY.

MOISTURE WILL AGAIN INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 455 AM EDT FRIDAY...

RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 29:

ROANOKE......19 IN 1982
BLACKSBURG...17 IN 2001
LYNCHBURG....23 IN 1923 AND 1982
DANVILLE.....23 IN 1966
BLUEFIELD....19 IN 1966 AND 1982
LEWISBURG....18 IN 1983

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS
CLIMATE...AMS/SK



000
FXUS61 KRNK 291121
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
721 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
TODAY AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST AND CROSS THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING. A SECOND FRONT AND CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THIS MORNING HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER WEST VIRGINIA. WINDS
HAVE DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY SINCE MIDNIGHT BUT HIGHEST ELEVATIONS
STILL HAD GUSTS 15 TO 20 MPH. SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. LOCAL PROFILER CONTINUED TO SHOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BELOW 0.10 INCH. VERY DRY AIR MASS AND
FULL SUNSHINE TODAY WILL LEAD TO A LARGE TEMPERATURE RISE. IN
ADDITION...850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL START TO MODERATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WINDS COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.
STAYED CLOSER TO WARMER GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.

CLOUD COVER SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION. HAVE ADJUSTED ONSET TIME
OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL 03Z/11PM AND INCREASED PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION TOWARD 12Z/8AM. MODELS SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER
RISING ABOVE 0.50 INCH. HAVE KEPT QPF WITH THIS FEATURE UNDER ONE
QUARTER OF AND INCH.

WINDS PICK UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT BUFKIT SHOWED STRONGEST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND REMAINING
ABOVE THE INVERSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SUNDAY...

EXPECT TO START MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE AREA...
TRIGGERING A BROKEN LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS MAKING ITS WAY EAST ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT
AS WINDS SHIFT WEST NORTHWESTERLY/DOWNSLOPE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PACIFIC IN
ORIGIN...LACKING THE COLDER CHARACTERISTICS OF THE CANADIAN
AIRMASSES WE HAVE ALL BECOME FAMILIAR WITH OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS.
AS SUCH...AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE DECREASING CLOUD COVER HEADING
INTO THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE
LOW/MID 50S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...TO THE MID 60S ACROSS
THE SOUTHSIDE.

WINDS WILL SHIFT INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY DURING LATE MONDAY
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE ADVANCES OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES...AND AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SWINGS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS TO RANGE FROM
THE LOW/MID 60S WEST...TO THE UPPER 60S EAST...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. DURING TUESDAY EVENING...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS
ACROSS LOWER NEW ENGLAND...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC. MAY SEE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN
RIDGES...HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...AND SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT...PUSHING OVER NEW ENGLAND AND WEDGING AGAINST THE
EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS. WINDS WILL SHIFT INCREASINGLY
SOUTHERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH
EAST...AND MAY SEE PATCHY DRIZZLE/FOG DEVELOP BEFORE DAWN THURSDAY
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE PUSHES UPSLOPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEPART EASTWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST THURSDAY MORNING...WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE PUSHING NWD ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE PER SE FLOW. WITH MODEST INSTABILITY PRESENT...
LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF RAIN FROM ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...WITH POSSIBLY EWD EXTENT INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA PER FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC EARLY ON IN THE DAY...BEFORE VEERING WINDS TURN MORE
SW. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE MILD BUT COULD BE COOLER PER MORE CLOUDS
AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. IF THE HIGH SLOWS DOWN OR SHIFTS FURTHER
NORTH...THUS ALLOWING LONGER EASTERLY FETCH...THEN TEMPS COULD BE 5-
10 DEGREES COOLER OUT EAST....BUT STILL NEAR NORMAL.

AS WE HEAD INTO THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY THE FORECAST VARIES...THOUGH
THE NEW 12Z ECMWF SHOWS SIMILAR SETUP THAT THE 12Z GFS DOES WITH
FRONT ORIENTATION SETTING UP IN AN EAST-WEST FASHION WITH PARALLEL
FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS GOING TO KEEP THE AREA IN A UNSETTLED PATTERN
WITH NEXT MAIN LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY ARRIVING OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE
DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS IS THAT THE ECMWF SHOWS A STRONGER LOW
MOVING MORE NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE GFS HAS WEAKER
LOW MOVING ACROSS WV INTO NRN VA. THE ECMWF SOLUTION AS SUCH HAS
LESS QPF THAN THE GFS. NONETHELESS THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE COLD
THOUGH THE ECWMF IS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED AND COLDER THAN THE GFS.
COULD SEE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MTNS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
TODAY AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE WEST MONDAY MORNING.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING THEN
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY HAVE GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MAINLY AFTER 00Z/8PM. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
DURING THE TAF PERIOD. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT CEILINGS WILL DROP
TO MVFR IN THE MOUNTAINS AS THE RAIN ARRIVES.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE IN
THE MOUNTAINS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.

THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY AS ANOTHER CLIPPER SLIDES ACROSS FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY LINGERING MOUNTAIN UPSLOPE DRIVEN MVFR
CIGS ON TUESDAY.

MOISTURE WILL AGAIN INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 455 AM EDT FRIDAY...

RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 29:

ROANOKE......19 IN 1982
BLACKSBURG...17 IN 2001
LYNCHBURG....23 IN 1923 AND 1982
DANVILLE.....23 IN 1966
BLUEFIELD....19 IN 1966 AND 1982
LEWISBURG....18 IN 1983

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS
CLIMATE...AMS/SK



000
FXUS61 KRNK 291121
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
721 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
TODAY AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST AND CROSS THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING. A SECOND FRONT AND CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THIS MORNING HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER WEST VIRGINIA. WINDS
HAVE DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY SINCE MIDNIGHT BUT HIGHEST ELEVATIONS
STILL HAD GUSTS 15 TO 20 MPH. SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. LOCAL PROFILER CONTINUED TO SHOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BELOW 0.10 INCH. VERY DRY AIR MASS AND
FULL SUNSHINE TODAY WILL LEAD TO A LARGE TEMPERATURE RISE. IN
ADDITION...850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL START TO MODERATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WINDS COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.
STAYED CLOSER TO WARMER GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.

CLOUD COVER SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION. HAVE ADJUSTED ONSET TIME
OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL 03Z/11PM AND INCREASED PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION TOWARD 12Z/8AM. MODELS SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER
RISING ABOVE 0.50 INCH. HAVE KEPT QPF WITH THIS FEATURE UNDER ONE
QUARTER OF AND INCH.

WINDS PICK UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT BUFKIT SHOWED STRONGEST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND REMAINING
ABOVE THE INVERSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SUNDAY...

EXPECT TO START MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE AREA...
TRIGGERING A BROKEN LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS MAKING ITS WAY EAST ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT
AS WINDS SHIFT WEST NORTHWESTERLY/DOWNSLOPE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PACIFIC IN
ORIGIN...LACKING THE COLDER CHARACTERISTICS OF THE CANADIAN
AIRMASSES WE HAVE ALL BECOME FAMILIAR WITH OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS.
AS SUCH...AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE DECREASING CLOUD COVER HEADING
INTO THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE
LOW/MID 50S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...TO THE MID 60S ACROSS
THE SOUTHSIDE.

WINDS WILL SHIFT INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY DURING LATE MONDAY
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE ADVANCES OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES...AND AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SWINGS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS TO RANGE FROM
THE LOW/MID 60S WEST...TO THE UPPER 60S EAST...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. DURING TUESDAY EVENING...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS
ACROSS LOWER NEW ENGLAND...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC. MAY SEE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN
RIDGES...HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...AND SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT...PUSHING OVER NEW ENGLAND AND WEDGING AGAINST THE
EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS. WINDS WILL SHIFT INCREASINGLY
SOUTHERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH
EAST...AND MAY SEE PATCHY DRIZZLE/FOG DEVELOP BEFORE DAWN THURSDAY
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE PUSHES UPSLOPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEPART EASTWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST THURSDAY MORNING...WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE PUSHING NWD ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE PER SE FLOW. WITH MODEST INSTABILITY PRESENT...
LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF RAIN FROM ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...WITH POSSIBLY EWD EXTENT INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA PER FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC EARLY ON IN THE DAY...BEFORE VEERING WINDS TURN MORE
SW. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE MILD BUT COULD BE COOLER PER MORE CLOUDS
AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. IF THE HIGH SLOWS DOWN OR SHIFTS FURTHER
NORTH...THUS ALLOWING LONGER EASTERLY FETCH...THEN TEMPS COULD BE 5-
10 DEGREES COOLER OUT EAST....BUT STILL NEAR NORMAL.

AS WE HEAD INTO THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY THE FORECAST VARIES...THOUGH
THE NEW 12Z ECMWF SHOWS SIMILAR SETUP THAT THE 12Z GFS DOES WITH
FRONT ORIENTATION SETTING UP IN AN EAST-WEST FASHION WITH PARALLEL
FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS GOING TO KEEP THE AREA IN A UNSETTLED PATTERN
WITH NEXT MAIN LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY ARRIVING OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE
DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS IS THAT THE ECMWF SHOWS A STRONGER LOW
MOVING MORE NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE GFS HAS WEAKER
LOW MOVING ACROSS WV INTO NRN VA. THE ECMWF SOLUTION AS SUCH HAS
LESS QPF THAN THE GFS. NONETHELESS THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE COLD
THOUGH THE ECWMF IS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED AND COLDER THAN THE GFS.
COULD SEE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MTNS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
TODAY AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE WEST MONDAY MORNING.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING THEN
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY HAVE GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MAINLY AFTER 00Z/8PM. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
DURING THE TAF PERIOD. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT CEILINGS WILL DROP
TO MVFR IN THE MOUNTAINS AS THE RAIN ARRIVES.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE IN
THE MOUNTAINS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.

THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY AS ANOTHER CLIPPER SLIDES ACROSS FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY LINGERING MOUNTAIN UPSLOPE DRIVEN MVFR
CIGS ON TUESDAY.

MOISTURE WILL AGAIN INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 455 AM EDT FRIDAY...

RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 29:

ROANOKE......19 IN 1982
BLACKSBURG...17 IN 2001
LYNCHBURG....23 IN 1923 AND 1982
DANVILLE.....23 IN 1966
BLUEFIELD....19 IN 1966 AND 1982
LEWISBURG....18 IN 1983

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS
CLIMATE...AMS/SK




000
FXUS61 KRNK 291121
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
721 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
TODAY AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST AND CROSS THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING. A SECOND FRONT AND CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THIS MORNING HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER WEST VIRGINIA. WINDS
HAVE DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY SINCE MIDNIGHT BUT HIGHEST ELEVATIONS
STILL HAD GUSTS 15 TO 20 MPH. SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. LOCAL PROFILER CONTINUED TO SHOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BELOW 0.10 INCH. VERY DRY AIR MASS AND
FULL SUNSHINE TODAY WILL LEAD TO A LARGE TEMPERATURE RISE. IN
ADDITION...850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL START TO MODERATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WINDS COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.
STAYED CLOSER TO WARMER GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.

CLOUD COVER SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION. HAVE ADJUSTED ONSET TIME
OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL 03Z/11PM AND INCREASED PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION TOWARD 12Z/8AM. MODELS SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER
RISING ABOVE 0.50 INCH. HAVE KEPT QPF WITH THIS FEATURE UNDER ONE
QUARTER OF AND INCH.

WINDS PICK UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT BUFKIT SHOWED STRONGEST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND REMAINING
ABOVE THE INVERSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SUNDAY...

EXPECT TO START MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE AREA...
TRIGGERING A BROKEN LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS MAKING ITS WAY EAST ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT
AS WINDS SHIFT WEST NORTHWESTERLY/DOWNSLOPE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PACIFIC IN
ORIGIN...LACKING THE COLDER CHARACTERISTICS OF THE CANADIAN
AIRMASSES WE HAVE ALL BECOME FAMILIAR WITH OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS.
AS SUCH...AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE DECREASING CLOUD COVER HEADING
INTO THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE
LOW/MID 50S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...TO THE MID 60S ACROSS
THE SOUTHSIDE.

WINDS WILL SHIFT INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY DURING LATE MONDAY
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE ADVANCES OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES...AND AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SWINGS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS TO RANGE FROM
THE LOW/MID 60S WEST...TO THE UPPER 60S EAST...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. DURING TUESDAY EVENING...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS
ACROSS LOWER NEW ENGLAND...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC. MAY SEE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN
RIDGES...HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...AND SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT...PUSHING OVER NEW ENGLAND AND WEDGING AGAINST THE
EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS. WINDS WILL SHIFT INCREASINGLY
SOUTHERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH
EAST...AND MAY SEE PATCHY DRIZZLE/FOG DEVELOP BEFORE DAWN THURSDAY
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE PUSHES UPSLOPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEPART EASTWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST THURSDAY MORNING...WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE PUSHING NWD ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE PER SE FLOW. WITH MODEST INSTABILITY PRESENT...
LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF RAIN FROM ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...WITH POSSIBLY EWD EXTENT INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA PER FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC EARLY ON IN THE DAY...BEFORE VEERING WINDS TURN MORE
SW. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE MILD BUT COULD BE COOLER PER MORE CLOUDS
AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. IF THE HIGH SLOWS DOWN OR SHIFTS FURTHER
NORTH...THUS ALLOWING LONGER EASTERLY FETCH...THEN TEMPS COULD BE 5-
10 DEGREES COOLER OUT EAST....BUT STILL NEAR NORMAL.

AS WE HEAD INTO THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY THE FORECAST VARIES...THOUGH
THE NEW 12Z ECMWF SHOWS SIMILAR SETUP THAT THE 12Z GFS DOES WITH
FRONT ORIENTATION SETTING UP IN AN EAST-WEST FASHION WITH PARALLEL
FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS GOING TO KEEP THE AREA IN A UNSETTLED PATTERN
WITH NEXT MAIN LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY ARRIVING OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE
DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS IS THAT THE ECMWF SHOWS A STRONGER LOW
MOVING MORE NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE GFS HAS WEAKER
LOW MOVING ACROSS WV INTO NRN VA. THE ECMWF SOLUTION AS SUCH HAS
LESS QPF THAN THE GFS. NONETHELESS THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE COLD
THOUGH THE ECWMF IS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED AND COLDER THAN THE GFS.
COULD SEE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MTNS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
TODAY AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE WEST MONDAY MORNING.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING THEN
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY HAVE GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MAINLY AFTER 00Z/8PM. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
DURING THE TAF PERIOD. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT CEILINGS WILL DROP
TO MVFR IN THE MOUNTAINS AS THE RAIN ARRIVES.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE IN
THE MOUNTAINS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.

THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY AS ANOTHER CLIPPER SLIDES ACROSS FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY LINGERING MOUNTAIN UPSLOPE DRIVEN MVFR
CIGS ON TUESDAY.

MOISTURE WILL AGAIN INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 455 AM EDT FRIDAY...

RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 29:

ROANOKE......19 IN 1982
BLACKSBURG...17 IN 2001
LYNCHBURG....23 IN 1923 AND 1982
DANVILLE.....23 IN 1966
BLUEFIELD....19 IN 1966 AND 1982
LEWISBURG....18 IN 1983

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS
CLIMATE...AMS/SK




000
FXUS61 KRNK 291121
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
721 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
TODAY AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST AND CROSS THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING. A SECOND FRONT AND CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THIS MORNING HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER WEST VIRGINIA. WINDS
HAVE DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY SINCE MIDNIGHT BUT HIGHEST ELEVATIONS
STILL HAD GUSTS 15 TO 20 MPH. SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. LOCAL PROFILER CONTINUED TO SHOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BELOW 0.10 INCH. VERY DRY AIR MASS AND
FULL SUNSHINE TODAY WILL LEAD TO A LARGE TEMPERATURE RISE. IN
ADDITION...850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL START TO MODERATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WINDS COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.
STAYED CLOSER TO WARMER GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.

CLOUD COVER SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION. HAVE ADJUSTED ONSET TIME
OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL 03Z/11PM AND INCREASED PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION TOWARD 12Z/8AM. MODELS SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER
RISING ABOVE 0.50 INCH. HAVE KEPT QPF WITH THIS FEATURE UNDER ONE
QUARTER OF AND INCH.

WINDS PICK UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT BUFKIT SHOWED STRONGEST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND REMAINING
ABOVE THE INVERSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SUNDAY...

EXPECT TO START MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE AREA...
TRIGGERING A BROKEN LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS MAKING ITS WAY EAST ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT
AS WINDS SHIFT WEST NORTHWESTERLY/DOWNSLOPE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PACIFIC IN
ORIGIN...LACKING THE COLDER CHARACTERISTICS OF THE CANADIAN
AIRMASSES WE HAVE ALL BECOME FAMILIAR WITH OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS.
AS SUCH...AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE DECREASING CLOUD COVER HEADING
INTO THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE
LOW/MID 50S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...TO THE MID 60S ACROSS
THE SOUTHSIDE.

WINDS WILL SHIFT INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY DURING LATE MONDAY
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE ADVANCES OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES...AND AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SWINGS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS TO RANGE FROM
THE LOW/MID 60S WEST...TO THE UPPER 60S EAST...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. DURING TUESDAY EVENING...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS
ACROSS LOWER NEW ENGLAND...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC. MAY SEE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN
RIDGES...HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...AND SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT...PUSHING OVER NEW ENGLAND AND WEDGING AGAINST THE
EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS. WINDS WILL SHIFT INCREASINGLY
SOUTHERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH
EAST...AND MAY SEE PATCHY DRIZZLE/FOG DEVELOP BEFORE DAWN THURSDAY
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE PUSHES UPSLOPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEPART EASTWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST THURSDAY MORNING...WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE PUSHING NWD ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE PER SE FLOW. WITH MODEST INSTABILITY PRESENT...
LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF RAIN FROM ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...WITH POSSIBLY EWD EXTENT INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA PER FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC EARLY ON IN THE DAY...BEFORE VEERING WINDS TURN MORE
SW. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE MILD BUT COULD BE COOLER PER MORE CLOUDS
AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. IF THE HIGH SLOWS DOWN OR SHIFTS FURTHER
NORTH...THUS ALLOWING LONGER EASTERLY FETCH...THEN TEMPS COULD BE 5-
10 DEGREES COOLER OUT EAST....BUT STILL NEAR NORMAL.

AS WE HEAD INTO THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY THE FORECAST VARIES...THOUGH
THE NEW 12Z ECMWF SHOWS SIMILAR SETUP THAT THE 12Z GFS DOES WITH
FRONT ORIENTATION SETTING UP IN AN EAST-WEST FASHION WITH PARALLEL
FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS GOING TO KEEP THE AREA IN A UNSETTLED PATTERN
WITH NEXT MAIN LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY ARRIVING OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE
DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS IS THAT THE ECMWF SHOWS A STRONGER LOW
MOVING MORE NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE GFS HAS WEAKER
LOW MOVING ACROSS WV INTO NRN VA. THE ECMWF SOLUTION AS SUCH HAS
LESS QPF THAN THE GFS. NONETHELESS THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE COLD
THOUGH THE ECWMF IS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED AND COLDER THAN THE GFS.
COULD SEE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MTNS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
TODAY AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE WEST MONDAY MORNING.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING THEN
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY HAVE GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MAINLY AFTER 00Z/8PM. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
DURING THE TAF PERIOD. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT CEILINGS WILL DROP
TO MVFR IN THE MOUNTAINS AS THE RAIN ARRIVES.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE IN
THE MOUNTAINS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.

THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY AS ANOTHER CLIPPER SLIDES ACROSS FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY LINGERING MOUNTAIN UPSLOPE DRIVEN MVFR
CIGS ON TUESDAY.

MOISTURE WILL AGAIN INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 455 AM EDT FRIDAY...

RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 29:

ROANOKE......19 IN 1982
BLACKSBURG...17 IN 2001
LYNCHBURG....23 IN 1923 AND 1982
DANVILLE.....23 IN 1966
BLUEFIELD....19 IN 1966 AND 1982
LEWISBURG....18 IN 1983

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS
CLIMATE...AMS/SK




000
FXUS61 KRNK 291121
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
721 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
TODAY AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST AND CROSS THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING. A SECOND FRONT AND CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THIS MORNING HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER WEST VIRGINIA. WINDS
HAVE DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY SINCE MIDNIGHT BUT HIGHEST ELEVATIONS
STILL HAD GUSTS 15 TO 20 MPH. SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. LOCAL PROFILER CONTINUED TO SHOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BELOW 0.10 INCH. VERY DRY AIR MASS AND
FULL SUNSHINE TODAY WILL LEAD TO A LARGE TEMPERATURE RISE. IN
ADDITION...850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL START TO MODERATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WINDS COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.
STAYED CLOSER TO WARMER GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.

CLOUD COVER SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION. HAVE ADJUSTED ONSET TIME
OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL 03Z/11PM AND INCREASED PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION TOWARD 12Z/8AM. MODELS SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER
RISING ABOVE 0.50 INCH. HAVE KEPT QPF WITH THIS FEATURE UNDER ONE
QUARTER OF AND INCH.

WINDS PICK UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT BUFKIT SHOWED STRONGEST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND REMAINING
ABOVE THE INVERSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SUNDAY...

EXPECT TO START MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE AREA...
TRIGGERING A BROKEN LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS MAKING ITS WAY EAST ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT
AS WINDS SHIFT WEST NORTHWESTERLY/DOWNSLOPE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PACIFIC IN
ORIGIN...LACKING THE COLDER CHARACTERISTICS OF THE CANADIAN
AIRMASSES WE HAVE ALL BECOME FAMILIAR WITH OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS.
AS SUCH...AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE DECREASING CLOUD COVER HEADING
INTO THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE
LOW/MID 50S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...TO THE MID 60S ACROSS
THE SOUTHSIDE.

WINDS WILL SHIFT INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY DURING LATE MONDAY
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE ADVANCES OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES...AND AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SWINGS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS TO RANGE FROM
THE LOW/MID 60S WEST...TO THE UPPER 60S EAST...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. DURING TUESDAY EVENING...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS
ACROSS LOWER NEW ENGLAND...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC. MAY SEE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN
RIDGES...HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...AND SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT...PUSHING OVER NEW ENGLAND AND WEDGING AGAINST THE
EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS. WINDS WILL SHIFT INCREASINGLY
SOUTHERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH
EAST...AND MAY SEE PATCHY DRIZZLE/FOG DEVELOP BEFORE DAWN THURSDAY
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE PUSHES UPSLOPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEPART EASTWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST THURSDAY MORNING...WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE PUSHING NWD ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE PER SE FLOW. WITH MODEST INSTABILITY PRESENT...
LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF RAIN FROM ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...WITH POSSIBLY EWD EXTENT INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA PER FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC EARLY ON IN THE DAY...BEFORE VEERING WINDS TURN MORE
SW. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE MILD BUT COULD BE COOLER PER MORE CLOUDS
AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. IF THE HIGH SLOWS DOWN OR SHIFTS FURTHER
NORTH...THUS ALLOWING LONGER EASTERLY FETCH...THEN TEMPS COULD BE 5-
10 DEGREES COOLER OUT EAST....BUT STILL NEAR NORMAL.

AS WE HEAD INTO THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY THE FORECAST VARIES...THOUGH
THE NEW 12Z ECMWF SHOWS SIMILAR SETUP THAT THE 12Z GFS DOES WITH
FRONT ORIENTATION SETTING UP IN AN EAST-WEST FASHION WITH PARALLEL
FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS GOING TO KEEP THE AREA IN A UNSETTLED PATTERN
WITH NEXT MAIN LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY ARRIVING OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE
DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS IS THAT THE ECMWF SHOWS A STRONGER LOW
MOVING MORE NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE GFS HAS WEAKER
LOW MOVING ACROSS WV INTO NRN VA. THE ECMWF SOLUTION AS SUCH HAS
LESS QPF THAN THE GFS. NONETHELESS THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE COLD
THOUGH THE ECWMF IS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED AND COLDER THAN THE GFS.
COULD SEE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MTNS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
TODAY AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE WEST MONDAY MORNING.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING THEN
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY HAVE GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MAINLY AFTER 00Z/8PM. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
DURING THE TAF PERIOD. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT CEILINGS WILL DROP
TO MVFR IN THE MOUNTAINS AS THE RAIN ARRIVES.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE IN
THE MOUNTAINS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.

THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY AS ANOTHER CLIPPER SLIDES ACROSS FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY LINGERING MOUNTAIN UPSLOPE DRIVEN MVFR
CIGS ON TUESDAY.

MOISTURE WILL AGAIN INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 455 AM EDT FRIDAY...

RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 29:

ROANOKE......19 IN 1982
BLACKSBURG...17 IN 2001
LYNCHBURG....23 IN 1923 AND 1982
DANVILLE.....23 IN 1966
BLUEFIELD....19 IN 1966 AND 1982
LEWISBURG....18 IN 1983

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS
CLIMATE...AMS/SK



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 291057
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
657 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION TODAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE
THIS EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
TUESDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS 1030MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THIS HIGH IS SLOWLY BUILDING INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC WITH MANY LOCATIONS OVER THE PIEDMONT AND INTERIOR
COASTAL PLAIN NOW DECOUPLING EVIDENCED BY CALM CONDITIONS.
MEANWHILE...A GUSTY NW WIND PERSISTS ALONG THE COAST. TEMPERATURES
OVER THE PIEDMONT AND INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN HAVE GENERALLY
DROPPED INTO THE LOW/MID 20S AS OF 330AM WITH LKU SHOWING A
TEMPERATURE OF 18 AT 315AM. FARTHER E...TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S...ALTHOUGH WIND CHILL VALUES ARE IN THE LOW
20S. SEE THE CLIMO SECTION BELOW FOR RECORD LOWS FOR THIS MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES TODAY...WHICH
WILL RESULT IN SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS LOCALLY ALONG WITH A LIGHT
WIND. MIXING WILL BE LIMITED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...SO
HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW/MID 40S ALONG THE COAST...TO LOW 50S
OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC DESPITE FULL SUN. THESE VALUES WILL AVERAGE
ABOUT -1.5 ST DEV BELOW THE SEASONAL MEAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL COLD FRONT
THEN MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY
MONDAY. NUMERICAL MODELS SHOW A DECENT BAND OF UVM SLIDING NW-SE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BETWEEN ABOUT 09-18Z. HOWEVER...MOISTURE
REMAIN VERY LIMITED BELOW 850MB. GIVEN THIS HAVE TRENDED POPS
UPWARD INTO THE HIGH CHC CATEGORY (40-50%) FOR WHAT SHOULD AMOUNT
TO A LIGHT QPF EVENT (~0.10IN OR LESS).

TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP QUICKLY THIS EVENING UNDER A CLEAR SKY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE COLDEST E (LOW 30S) WHERE CLEAR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THE LONGEST. FARTHER W...LOWS SHOULD BE IN
THE MID/UPPER 30S...BUT SURFACE WET-BULBS WILL BE IN THE LOW 30S
SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE ONSET OF PCPN COULD INCLUDE A MIX OF
-RA/IP. THE SURFACE PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT IS MAINLY A WIND
SHIFT...SO HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE WARMER AVERAGING FROM THE UPPER
50S/LOW 60S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE MID 60S INLAND WITH DOWNSLOPE
WESTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY.

A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIVEN BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
TRACKS ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE DAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
ACROSS THE N BY AFTERNOON. A RIBBON OF 20-25% POPS (FOR -SHRA) HAS
BEEN INCLUDED FOR THE NRN TIER COUNTIES AND THIS IS MAINLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY OF THE LOW TRACK. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
GET ANY PCPN S OF THE LOW TRACK WITH DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW.

LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS APPROACHING 70F ON
TUESDAY OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC. THIS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING N OF THE REGION RESULTING IN DEEP LAYERED
WSW FLOW. FORECAST HIGHS HAVE BEEN INCREASED INTO THE UPPER 60S
OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...WITH LOW 60S OVER THE ERN
SHORE...AND LOCALLY COOLER VALUES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS WILL BE AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BETTER AGREEMENT IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO HANDLING
SPLIT FLOW COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO. TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED...GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS NOW WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE DROPPING INTO THE NRN MID-
ATLANTIC REGION LATE TUES NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PROGGED TO TRACK
ACROSS NRN VA/MD TUES NIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY WEDS MORNING. BEST MOISTURE/LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA...BUT WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE NE ZONES LATE TUES NIGHT CLOSEST TO BEST
MOISTURE/LIFT. SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT PUSH WELL OFFSHORE WEDS AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE REGION. MODEST CAA AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL RESULT IN TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND AND MID-UPPER
50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE WEDS
NIGHT-THURS AS A SRN STREAM WAVE LIFTS FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE
TN VALLEY. MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED THANKS TO INCREASING S-SE FLOW.
28/12Z ECMWF QUICKER WITH BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE REGION THURS
AFTERNOON. HAVE DROPPED POPS THURS AFTERNOON...BUT KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SSW FLOW WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPS
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 INLAND TO LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS
THURS. EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE THURS AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...CHANCE FOR PRECIP RAMP UP THURS NIGHT-FRI AS THE SRN
STREAM WAVE LIFTS OVER THE REGION. NRN STREAM WAVE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST ALSO PROGGED TO FLATTEN AND TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE THURS-THURS NIGHT. ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED SFC LOW LOCATES
OVER SERN CANADA THURS NIGHT-FRI MORNING...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE FRI-SAT TIMEFRAME. SPATIAL AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST...BUT WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS THRU SAT
MORNING. SLIGHT WARMER FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND
LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR THRU THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W
TDA...BCMG CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS BY THIS AFTN. THIS WILL
ALLOW NNW WINDS...GUSTY AT TIMES THIS MORNG...TO SHIFT TO THE S/SW
LATER IN THE DAY. OTWS...DRY WX EXPECTED WITH JUST SOME INCREASING
HI CLOUDS THIS EVENG.

OUTLOOK...THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE S/SE
TONIGHT...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA ON MONDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNS
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS BROAD HI PRES CENTERED OVER THE OH
VALLEY. STRONG WINDS CONTINUE THIS MORNG WITH PRES RISES AND CAA
OVER THE LOCAL AREA. SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE AS PLANNED...ENDING
LATER THIS MORNG OVER THE BAY...THEN OVER THE BAY/SOUND...AND
FINALLY OVER CSTL WTRS MIDDAY AS SEAS SUBSIDE TO BLO 5FT. IMPROVING
MARINE CONDS EXPECTED THIS AFTN AS THE HI CENTERS OVER THE
CAROLINAS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...
CROSSING THE WATERS LATE MON-EARLY MON NIGHT. PREFRONTAL SLY SURGE
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE BAY
AND 20 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. MODELS INDICATE SCA
CONDITIONS...BUT BASED ON WAA AND COLD WATER...EXPECT A SHARP LOW
LEVEL INVERSION TO PREVENT STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE WATER.
HAVE CAPPED SPEEDS BELOW SCA ATTM AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS
CONDS WILL BE CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS. SLY FETCH MAY PUSH SEAS TO 5
FT IN THE NRN COASTAL WATERS MON MORNING. SWLY FLOW RETURNS MON
NIGHT-TUES. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION LATE
TUES WITH ANOTHER FRONT CROSSING THE WATER EARLY WEDS NIGHT. WINDS
STAY AOB 15 KT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDS-THURS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY 3/29:

RIC...22/1923
ORF...25/1982
SBY...18/1923
ECG...24/1982

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/JAO
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/JAO
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 291057
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
657 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION TODAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE
THIS EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
TUESDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS 1030MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THIS HIGH IS SLOWLY BUILDING INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC WITH MANY LOCATIONS OVER THE PIEDMONT AND INTERIOR
COASTAL PLAIN NOW DECOUPLING EVIDENCED BY CALM CONDITIONS.
MEANWHILE...A GUSTY NW WIND PERSISTS ALONG THE COAST. TEMPERATURES
OVER THE PIEDMONT AND INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN HAVE GENERALLY
DROPPED INTO THE LOW/MID 20S AS OF 330AM WITH LKU SHOWING A
TEMPERATURE OF 18 AT 315AM. FARTHER E...TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S...ALTHOUGH WIND CHILL VALUES ARE IN THE LOW
20S. SEE THE CLIMO SECTION BELOW FOR RECORD LOWS FOR THIS MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES TODAY...WHICH
WILL RESULT IN SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS LOCALLY ALONG WITH A LIGHT
WIND. MIXING WILL BE LIMITED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...SO
HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW/MID 40S ALONG THE COAST...TO LOW 50S
OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC DESPITE FULL SUN. THESE VALUES WILL AVERAGE
ABOUT -1.5 ST DEV BELOW THE SEASONAL MEAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL COLD FRONT
THEN MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY
MONDAY. NUMERICAL MODELS SHOW A DECENT BAND OF UVM SLIDING NW-SE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BETWEEN ABOUT 09-18Z. HOWEVER...MOISTURE
REMAIN VERY LIMITED BELOW 850MB. GIVEN THIS HAVE TRENDED POPS
UPWARD INTO THE HIGH CHC CATEGORY (40-50%) FOR WHAT SHOULD AMOUNT
TO A LIGHT QPF EVENT (~0.10IN OR LESS).

TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP QUICKLY THIS EVENING UNDER A CLEAR SKY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE COLDEST E (LOW 30S) WHERE CLEAR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THE LONGEST. FARTHER W...LOWS SHOULD BE IN
THE MID/UPPER 30S...BUT SURFACE WET-BULBS WILL BE IN THE LOW 30S
SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE ONSET OF PCPN COULD INCLUDE A MIX OF
-RA/IP. THE SURFACE PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT IS MAINLY A WIND
SHIFT...SO HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE WARMER AVERAGING FROM THE UPPER
50S/LOW 60S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE MID 60S INLAND WITH DOWNSLOPE
WESTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY.

A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIVEN BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
TRACKS ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE DAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
ACROSS THE N BY AFTERNOON. A RIBBON OF 20-25% POPS (FOR -SHRA) HAS
BEEN INCLUDED FOR THE NRN TIER COUNTIES AND THIS IS MAINLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY OF THE LOW TRACK. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
GET ANY PCPN S OF THE LOW TRACK WITH DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW.

LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS APPROACHING 70F ON
TUESDAY OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC. THIS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING N OF THE REGION RESULTING IN DEEP LAYERED
WSW FLOW. FORECAST HIGHS HAVE BEEN INCREASED INTO THE UPPER 60S
OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...WITH LOW 60S OVER THE ERN
SHORE...AND LOCALLY COOLER VALUES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS WILL BE AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BETTER AGREEMENT IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO HANDLING
SPLIT FLOW COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO. TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED...GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS NOW WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE DROPPING INTO THE NRN MID-
ATLANTIC REGION LATE TUES NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PROGGED TO TRACK
ACROSS NRN VA/MD TUES NIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY WEDS MORNING. BEST MOISTURE/LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA...BUT WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE NE ZONES LATE TUES NIGHT CLOSEST TO BEST
MOISTURE/LIFT. SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT PUSH WELL OFFSHORE WEDS AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE REGION. MODEST CAA AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL RESULT IN TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND AND MID-UPPER
50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE WEDS
NIGHT-THURS AS A SRN STREAM WAVE LIFTS FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE
TN VALLEY. MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED THANKS TO INCREASING S-SE FLOW.
28/12Z ECMWF QUICKER WITH BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE REGION THURS
AFTERNOON. HAVE DROPPED POPS THURS AFTERNOON...BUT KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SSW FLOW WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPS
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 INLAND TO LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS
THURS. EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE THURS AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...CHANCE FOR PRECIP RAMP UP THURS NIGHT-FRI AS THE SRN
STREAM WAVE LIFTS OVER THE REGION. NRN STREAM WAVE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST ALSO PROGGED TO FLATTEN AND TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE THURS-THURS NIGHT. ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED SFC LOW LOCATES
OVER SERN CANADA THURS NIGHT-FRI MORNING...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE FRI-SAT TIMEFRAME. SPATIAL AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST...BUT WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS THRU SAT
MORNING. SLIGHT WARMER FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND
LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR THRU THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W
TDA...BCMG CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS BY THIS AFTN. THIS WILL
ALLOW NNW WINDS...GUSTY AT TIMES THIS MORNG...TO SHIFT TO THE S/SW
LATER IN THE DAY. OTWS...DRY WX EXPECTED WITH JUST SOME INCREASING
HI CLOUDS THIS EVENG.

OUTLOOK...THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE S/SE
TONIGHT...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA ON MONDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNS
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS BROAD HI PRES CENTERED OVER THE OH
VALLEY. STRONG WINDS CONTINUE THIS MORNG WITH PRES RISES AND CAA
OVER THE LOCAL AREA. SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE AS PLANNED...ENDING
LATER THIS MORNG OVER THE BAY...THEN OVER THE BAY/SOUND...AND
FINALLY OVER CSTL WTRS MIDDAY AS SEAS SUBSIDE TO BLO 5FT. IMPROVING
MARINE CONDS EXPECTED THIS AFTN AS THE HI CENTERS OVER THE
CAROLINAS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...
CROSSING THE WATERS LATE MON-EARLY MON NIGHT. PREFRONTAL SLY SURGE
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE BAY
AND 20 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. MODELS INDICATE SCA
CONDITIONS...BUT BASED ON WAA AND COLD WATER...EXPECT A SHARP LOW
LEVEL INVERSION TO PREVENT STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE WATER.
HAVE CAPPED SPEEDS BELOW SCA ATTM AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS
CONDS WILL BE CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS. SLY FETCH MAY PUSH SEAS TO 5
FT IN THE NRN COASTAL WATERS MON MORNING. SWLY FLOW RETURNS MON
NIGHT-TUES. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION LATE
TUES WITH ANOTHER FRONT CROSSING THE WATER EARLY WEDS NIGHT. WINDS
STAY AOB 15 KT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDS-THURS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY 3/29:

RIC...22/1923
ORF...25/1982
SBY...18/1923
ECG...24/1982

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/JAO
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/JAO
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 291057
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
657 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION TODAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE
THIS EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
TUESDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS 1030MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THIS HIGH IS SLOWLY BUILDING INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC WITH MANY LOCATIONS OVER THE PIEDMONT AND INTERIOR
COASTAL PLAIN NOW DECOUPLING EVIDENCED BY CALM CONDITIONS.
MEANWHILE...A GUSTY NW WIND PERSISTS ALONG THE COAST. TEMPERATURES
OVER THE PIEDMONT AND INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN HAVE GENERALLY
DROPPED INTO THE LOW/MID 20S AS OF 330AM WITH LKU SHOWING A
TEMPERATURE OF 18 AT 315AM. FARTHER E...TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S...ALTHOUGH WIND CHILL VALUES ARE IN THE LOW
20S. SEE THE CLIMO SECTION BELOW FOR RECORD LOWS FOR THIS MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES TODAY...WHICH
WILL RESULT IN SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS LOCALLY ALONG WITH A LIGHT
WIND. MIXING WILL BE LIMITED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...SO
HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW/MID 40S ALONG THE COAST...TO LOW 50S
OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC DESPITE FULL SUN. THESE VALUES WILL AVERAGE
ABOUT -1.5 ST DEV BELOW THE SEASONAL MEAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL COLD FRONT
THEN MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY
MONDAY. NUMERICAL MODELS SHOW A DECENT BAND OF UVM SLIDING NW-SE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BETWEEN ABOUT 09-18Z. HOWEVER...MOISTURE
REMAIN VERY LIMITED BELOW 850MB. GIVEN THIS HAVE TRENDED POPS
UPWARD INTO THE HIGH CHC CATEGORY (40-50%) FOR WHAT SHOULD AMOUNT
TO A LIGHT QPF EVENT (~0.10IN OR LESS).

TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP QUICKLY THIS EVENING UNDER A CLEAR SKY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE COLDEST E (LOW 30S) WHERE CLEAR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THE LONGEST. FARTHER W...LOWS SHOULD BE IN
THE MID/UPPER 30S...BUT SURFACE WET-BULBS WILL BE IN THE LOW 30S
SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE ONSET OF PCPN COULD INCLUDE A MIX OF
-RA/IP. THE SURFACE PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT IS MAINLY A WIND
SHIFT...SO HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE WARMER AVERAGING FROM THE UPPER
50S/LOW 60S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE MID 60S INLAND WITH DOWNSLOPE
WESTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY.

A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIVEN BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
TRACKS ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE DAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
ACROSS THE N BY AFTERNOON. A RIBBON OF 20-25% POPS (FOR -SHRA) HAS
BEEN INCLUDED FOR THE NRN TIER COUNTIES AND THIS IS MAINLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY OF THE LOW TRACK. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
GET ANY PCPN S OF THE LOW TRACK WITH DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW.

LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS APPROACHING 70F ON
TUESDAY OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC. THIS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING N OF THE REGION RESULTING IN DEEP LAYERED
WSW FLOW. FORECAST HIGHS HAVE BEEN INCREASED INTO THE UPPER 60S
OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...WITH LOW 60S OVER THE ERN
SHORE...AND LOCALLY COOLER VALUES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS WILL BE AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BETTER AGREEMENT IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO HANDLING
SPLIT FLOW COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO. TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED...GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS NOW WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE DROPPING INTO THE NRN MID-
ATLANTIC REGION LATE TUES NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PROGGED TO TRACK
ACROSS NRN VA/MD TUES NIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY WEDS MORNING. BEST MOISTURE/LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA...BUT WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE NE ZONES LATE TUES NIGHT CLOSEST TO BEST
MOISTURE/LIFT. SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT PUSH WELL OFFSHORE WEDS AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE REGION. MODEST CAA AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL RESULT IN TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND AND MID-UPPER
50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE WEDS
NIGHT-THURS AS A SRN STREAM WAVE LIFTS FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE
TN VALLEY. MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED THANKS TO INCREASING S-SE FLOW.
28/12Z ECMWF QUICKER WITH BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE REGION THURS
AFTERNOON. HAVE DROPPED POPS THURS AFTERNOON...BUT KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SSW FLOW WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPS
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 INLAND TO LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS
THURS. EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE THURS AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...CHANCE FOR PRECIP RAMP UP THURS NIGHT-FRI AS THE SRN
STREAM WAVE LIFTS OVER THE REGION. NRN STREAM WAVE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST ALSO PROGGED TO FLATTEN AND TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE THURS-THURS NIGHT. ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED SFC LOW LOCATES
OVER SERN CANADA THURS NIGHT-FRI MORNING...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE FRI-SAT TIMEFRAME. SPATIAL AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST...BUT WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS THRU SAT
MORNING. SLIGHT WARMER FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND
LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR THRU THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W
TDA...BCMG CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS BY THIS AFTN. THIS WILL
ALLOW NNW WINDS...GUSTY AT TIMES THIS MORNG...TO SHIFT TO THE S/SW
LATER IN THE DAY. OTWS...DRY WX EXPECTED WITH JUST SOME INCREASING
HI CLOUDS THIS EVENG.

OUTLOOK...THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE S/SE
TONIGHT...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA ON MONDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNS
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS BROAD HI PRES CENTERED OVER THE OH
VALLEY. STRONG WINDS CONTINUE THIS MORNG WITH PRES RISES AND CAA
OVER THE LOCAL AREA. SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE AS PLANNED...ENDING
LATER THIS MORNG OVER THE BAY...THEN OVER THE BAY/SOUND...AND
FINALLY OVER CSTL WTRS MIDDAY AS SEAS SUBSIDE TO BLO 5FT. IMPROVING
MARINE CONDS EXPECTED THIS AFTN AS THE HI CENTERS OVER THE
CAROLINAS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...
CROSSING THE WATERS LATE MON-EARLY MON NIGHT. PREFRONTAL SLY SURGE
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE BAY
AND 20 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. MODELS INDICATE SCA
CONDITIONS...BUT BASED ON WAA AND COLD WATER...EXPECT A SHARP LOW
LEVEL INVERSION TO PREVENT STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE WATER.
HAVE CAPPED SPEEDS BELOW SCA ATTM AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS
CONDS WILL BE CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS. SLY FETCH MAY PUSH SEAS TO 5
FT IN THE NRN COASTAL WATERS MON MORNING. SWLY FLOW RETURNS MON
NIGHT-TUES. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION LATE
TUES WITH ANOTHER FRONT CROSSING THE WATER EARLY WEDS NIGHT. WINDS
STAY AOB 15 KT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDS-THURS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY 3/29:

RIC...22/1923
ORF...25/1982
SBY...18/1923
ECG...24/1982

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/JAO
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/JAO
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 291057
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
657 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION TODAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE
THIS EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
TUESDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS 1030MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THIS HIGH IS SLOWLY BUILDING INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC WITH MANY LOCATIONS OVER THE PIEDMONT AND INTERIOR
COASTAL PLAIN NOW DECOUPLING EVIDENCED BY CALM CONDITIONS.
MEANWHILE...A GUSTY NW WIND PERSISTS ALONG THE COAST. TEMPERATURES
OVER THE PIEDMONT AND INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN HAVE GENERALLY
DROPPED INTO THE LOW/MID 20S AS OF 330AM WITH LKU SHOWING A
TEMPERATURE OF 18 AT 315AM. FARTHER E...TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S...ALTHOUGH WIND CHILL VALUES ARE IN THE LOW
20S. SEE THE CLIMO SECTION BELOW FOR RECORD LOWS FOR THIS MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES TODAY...WHICH
WILL RESULT IN SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS LOCALLY ALONG WITH A LIGHT
WIND. MIXING WILL BE LIMITED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...SO
HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW/MID 40S ALONG THE COAST...TO LOW 50S
OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC DESPITE FULL SUN. THESE VALUES WILL AVERAGE
ABOUT -1.5 ST DEV BELOW THE SEASONAL MEAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL COLD FRONT
THEN MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY
MONDAY. NUMERICAL MODELS SHOW A DECENT BAND OF UVM SLIDING NW-SE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BETWEEN ABOUT 09-18Z. HOWEVER...MOISTURE
REMAIN VERY LIMITED BELOW 850MB. GIVEN THIS HAVE TRENDED POPS
UPWARD INTO THE HIGH CHC CATEGORY (40-50%) FOR WHAT SHOULD AMOUNT
TO A LIGHT QPF EVENT (~0.10IN OR LESS).

TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP QUICKLY THIS EVENING UNDER A CLEAR SKY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE COLDEST E (LOW 30S) WHERE CLEAR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THE LONGEST. FARTHER W...LOWS SHOULD BE IN
THE MID/UPPER 30S...BUT SURFACE WET-BULBS WILL BE IN THE LOW 30S
SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE ONSET OF PCPN COULD INCLUDE A MIX OF
-RA/IP. THE SURFACE PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT IS MAINLY A WIND
SHIFT...SO HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE WARMER AVERAGING FROM THE UPPER
50S/LOW 60S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE MID 60S INLAND WITH DOWNSLOPE
WESTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY.

A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIVEN BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
TRACKS ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE DAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
ACROSS THE N BY AFTERNOON. A RIBBON OF 20-25% POPS (FOR -SHRA) HAS
BEEN INCLUDED FOR THE NRN TIER COUNTIES AND THIS IS MAINLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY OF THE LOW TRACK. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
GET ANY PCPN S OF THE LOW TRACK WITH DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW.

LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS APPROACHING 70F ON
TUESDAY OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC. THIS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING N OF THE REGION RESULTING IN DEEP LAYERED
WSW FLOW. FORECAST HIGHS HAVE BEEN INCREASED INTO THE UPPER 60S
OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...WITH LOW 60S OVER THE ERN
SHORE...AND LOCALLY COOLER VALUES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS WILL BE AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BETTER AGREEMENT IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO HANDLING
SPLIT FLOW COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO. TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED...GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS NOW WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE DROPPING INTO THE NRN MID-
ATLANTIC REGION LATE TUES NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PROGGED TO TRACK
ACROSS NRN VA/MD TUES NIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY WEDS MORNING. BEST MOISTURE/LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA...BUT WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE NE ZONES LATE TUES NIGHT CLOSEST TO BEST
MOISTURE/LIFT. SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT PUSH WELL OFFSHORE WEDS AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE REGION. MODEST CAA AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL RESULT IN TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND AND MID-UPPER
50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE WEDS
NIGHT-THURS AS A SRN STREAM WAVE LIFTS FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE
TN VALLEY. MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED THANKS TO INCREASING S-SE FLOW.
28/12Z ECMWF QUICKER WITH BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE REGION THURS
AFTERNOON. HAVE DROPPED POPS THURS AFTERNOON...BUT KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SSW FLOW WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPS
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 INLAND TO LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS
THURS. EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE THURS AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...CHANCE FOR PRECIP RAMP UP THURS NIGHT-FRI AS THE SRN
STREAM WAVE LIFTS OVER THE REGION. NRN STREAM WAVE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST ALSO PROGGED TO FLATTEN AND TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE THURS-THURS NIGHT. ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED SFC LOW LOCATES
OVER SERN CANADA THURS NIGHT-FRI MORNING...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE FRI-SAT TIMEFRAME. SPATIAL AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST...BUT WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS THRU SAT
MORNING. SLIGHT WARMER FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND
LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR THRU THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W
TDA...BCMG CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS BY THIS AFTN. THIS WILL
ALLOW NNW WINDS...GUSTY AT TIMES THIS MORNG...TO SHIFT TO THE S/SW
LATER IN THE DAY. OTWS...DRY WX EXPECTED WITH JUST SOME INCREASING
HI CLOUDS THIS EVENG.

OUTLOOK...THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE S/SE
TONIGHT...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA ON MONDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNS
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS BROAD HI PRES CENTERED OVER THE OH
VALLEY. STRONG WINDS CONTINUE THIS MORNG WITH PRES RISES AND CAA
OVER THE LOCAL AREA. SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE AS PLANNED...ENDING
LATER THIS MORNG OVER THE BAY...THEN OVER THE BAY/SOUND...AND
FINALLY OVER CSTL WTRS MIDDAY AS SEAS SUBSIDE TO BLO 5FT. IMPROVING
MARINE CONDS EXPECTED THIS AFTN AS THE HI CENTERS OVER THE
CAROLINAS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...
CROSSING THE WATERS LATE MON-EARLY MON NIGHT. PREFRONTAL SLY SURGE
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE BAY
AND 20 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. MODELS INDICATE SCA
CONDITIONS...BUT BASED ON WAA AND COLD WATER...EXPECT A SHARP LOW
LEVEL INVERSION TO PREVENT STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE WATER.
HAVE CAPPED SPEEDS BELOW SCA ATTM AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS
CONDS WILL BE CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS. SLY FETCH MAY PUSH SEAS TO 5
FT IN THE NRN COASTAL WATERS MON MORNING. SWLY FLOW RETURNS MON
NIGHT-TUES. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION LATE
TUES WITH ANOTHER FRONT CROSSING THE WATER EARLY WEDS NIGHT. WINDS
STAY AOB 15 KT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDS-THURS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY 3/29:

RIC...22/1923
ORF...25/1982
SBY...18/1923
ECG...24/1982

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/JAO
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/JAO
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KRNK 290828
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
428 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
TODAY AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST AND CROSS THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING. A SECOND FRONT AND CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THIS MORNING HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER WEST VIRGINIA. WINDS
HAVE DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY SINCE MIDNIGHT BUT HIGHEST ELEVATIONS
STILL HAD GUSTS 15 TO 20 MPH. SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. LOCAL PROFILER CONTINUED TO SHOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BELOW 0.10 INCH. VERY DRY AIR MASS AND
FULL SUNSHINE TODAY WILL LEAD TO A LARGE TEMPERATURE RISE. IN
ADDITION...850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL START TO MODERATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WINDS COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.
STAYED CLOSER TO WARMER GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.

CLOUD COVER SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION. HAVE ADJUSTED ONSET TIME
OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL 03Z/11PM AND INCREASED PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION TOWARD 12Z/8AM. MODELS SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER
RISING ABOVE 0.50 INCH. HAVE KEPT QPF WITH THIS FEATURE UNDER ONE
QUARTER OF AND INCH.

WINDS PICK UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT BUFKIT SHOWED STRONGEST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND REMAINING
ABOVE THE INVERSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SUNDAY...

EXPECT TO START MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE AREA...
TRIGGERING A BROKEN LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS MAKING ITS WAY EAST ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT
AS WINDS SHIFT WEST NORTHWESTERLY/DOWNSLOPE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PACIFIC IN
ORIGIN...LACKING THE COLDER CHARACTERISTICS OF THE CANADIAN
AIRMASSES WE HAVE ALL BECOME FAMILIAR WITH OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS.
AS SUCH...AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE DECREASING CLOUD COVER HEADING
INTO THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE
LOW/MID 50S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...TO THE MID 60S ACROSS
THE SOUTHSIDE.

WINDS WILL SHIFT INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY DURING LATE MONDAY
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE ADVANCES OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES...AND AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SWINGS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS TO RANGE FROM
THE LOW/MID 60S WEST...TO THE UPPER 60S EAST...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. DURING TUESDAY EVENING...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS
ACROSS LOWER NEW ENGLAND...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC. MAY SEE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN
RIDGES...HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...AND SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT...PUSHING OVER NEW ENGLAND AND WEDGING AGAINST THE
EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS. WINDS WILL SHIFT INCREASINGLY
SOUTHERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH
EAST...AND MAY SEE PATCHY DRIZZLE/FOG DEVELOP BEFORE DAWN THURSDAY
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE PUSHES UPSLOPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEPART EASTWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST THURSDAY MORNING...WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE PUSHING NWD ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE PER SE FLOW. WITH MODEST INSTABILITY PRESENT...
LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF RAIN FROM ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...WITH POSSIBLY EWD EXTENT INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA PER FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC EARLY ON IN THE DAY...BEFORE VEERING WINDS TURN MORE
SW. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE MILD BUT COULD BE COOLER PER MORE CLOUDS
AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. IF THE HIGH SLOWS DOWN OR SHIFTS FURTHER
NORTH...THUS ALLOWING LONGER EASTERLY FETCH...THEN TEMPS COULD BE 5-
10 DEGREES COOLER OUT EAST....BUT STILL NEAR NORMAL.

AS WE HEAD INTO THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY THE FORECAST VARIES...THOUGH
THE NEW 12Z ECMWF SHOWS SIMILAR SETUP THAT THE 12Z GFS DOES WITH
FRONT ORIENTATION SETTING UP IN AN EAST-WEST FASHION WITH PARALLEL
FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS GOING TO KEEP THE AREA IN A UNSETTLED PATTERN
WITH NEXT MAIN LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY ARRIVING OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE
DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS IS THAT THE ECMWF SHOWS A STRONGER LOW
MOVING MORE NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE GFS HAS WEAKER
LOW MOVING ACROSS WV INTO NRN VA. THE ECMWF SOLUTION AS SUCH HAS
LESS QPF THAN THE GFS. NONETHELESS THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE COLD
THOUGH THE ECWMF IS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED AND COLDER THAN THE GFS.
COULD SEE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MTNS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM EDT SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH
THE REGION FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING THEN
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY HAVE GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY. HIGH

HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MAINLY AFTER 00Z/8PM. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE IN
THE MOUNTAINS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.

THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY AS ANOTHER CLIPPER SLIDES ACROSS FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY LINGERING MOUNTAIN UPSLOPE DRIVEN MVFR
CIGS ON TUESDAY.

MOISTURE WILL AGAIN INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 455 AM EDT FRIDAY...

RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 29:

ROANOKE......19 IN 1982
BLACKSBURG...17 IN 2001
LYNCHBURG....23 IN 1923 AND 1982
DANVILLE.....23 IN 1966
BLUEFIELD....19 IN 1966 AND 1982
LEWISBURG....18 IN 1983

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS
CLIMATE...AMS/SK




000
FXUS61 KRNK 290828
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
428 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
TODAY AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST AND CROSS THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING. A SECOND FRONT AND CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THIS MORNING HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER WEST VIRGINIA. WINDS
HAVE DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY SINCE MIDNIGHT BUT HIGHEST ELEVATIONS
STILL HAD GUSTS 15 TO 20 MPH. SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. LOCAL PROFILER CONTINUED TO SHOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BELOW 0.10 INCH. VERY DRY AIR MASS AND
FULL SUNSHINE TODAY WILL LEAD TO A LARGE TEMPERATURE RISE. IN
ADDITION...850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL START TO MODERATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WINDS COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.
STAYED CLOSER TO WARMER GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.

CLOUD COVER SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION. HAVE ADJUSTED ONSET TIME
OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL 03Z/11PM AND INCREASED PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION TOWARD 12Z/8AM. MODELS SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER
RISING ABOVE 0.50 INCH. HAVE KEPT QPF WITH THIS FEATURE UNDER ONE
QUARTER OF AND INCH.

WINDS PICK UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT BUFKIT SHOWED STRONGEST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND REMAINING
ABOVE THE INVERSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SUNDAY...

EXPECT TO START MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE AREA...
TRIGGERING A BROKEN LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS MAKING ITS WAY EAST ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT
AS WINDS SHIFT WEST NORTHWESTERLY/DOWNSLOPE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PACIFIC IN
ORIGIN...LACKING THE COLDER CHARACTERISTICS OF THE CANADIAN
AIRMASSES WE HAVE ALL BECOME FAMILIAR WITH OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS.
AS SUCH...AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE DECREASING CLOUD COVER HEADING
INTO THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE
LOW/MID 50S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...TO THE MID 60S ACROSS
THE SOUTHSIDE.

WINDS WILL SHIFT INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY DURING LATE MONDAY
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE ADVANCES OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES...AND AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SWINGS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS TO RANGE FROM
THE LOW/MID 60S WEST...TO THE UPPER 60S EAST...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. DURING TUESDAY EVENING...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS
ACROSS LOWER NEW ENGLAND...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC. MAY SEE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN
RIDGES...HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...AND SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT...PUSHING OVER NEW ENGLAND AND WEDGING AGAINST THE
EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS. WINDS WILL SHIFT INCREASINGLY
SOUTHERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH
EAST...AND MAY SEE PATCHY DRIZZLE/FOG DEVELOP BEFORE DAWN THURSDAY
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE PUSHES UPSLOPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEPART EASTWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST THURSDAY MORNING...WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE PUSHING NWD ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE PER SE FLOW. WITH MODEST INSTABILITY PRESENT...
LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF RAIN FROM ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...WITH POSSIBLY EWD EXTENT INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA PER FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC EARLY ON IN THE DAY...BEFORE VEERING WINDS TURN MORE
SW. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE MILD BUT COULD BE COOLER PER MORE CLOUDS
AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. IF THE HIGH SLOWS DOWN OR SHIFTS FURTHER
NORTH...THUS ALLOWING LONGER EASTERLY FETCH...THEN TEMPS COULD BE 5-
10 DEGREES COOLER OUT EAST....BUT STILL NEAR NORMAL.

AS WE HEAD INTO THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY THE FORECAST VARIES...THOUGH
THE NEW 12Z ECMWF SHOWS SIMILAR SETUP THAT THE 12Z GFS DOES WITH
FRONT ORIENTATION SETTING UP IN AN EAST-WEST FASHION WITH PARALLEL
FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS GOING TO KEEP THE AREA IN A UNSETTLED PATTERN
WITH NEXT MAIN LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY ARRIVING OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE
DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS IS THAT THE ECMWF SHOWS A STRONGER LOW
MOVING MORE NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE GFS HAS WEAKER
LOW MOVING ACROSS WV INTO NRN VA. THE ECMWF SOLUTION AS SUCH HAS
LESS QPF THAN THE GFS. NONETHELESS THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE COLD
THOUGH THE ECWMF IS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED AND COLDER THAN THE GFS.
COULD SEE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MTNS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM EDT SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH
THE REGION FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING THEN
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY HAVE GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY. HIGH

HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MAINLY AFTER 00Z/8PM. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE IN
THE MOUNTAINS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.

THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY AS ANOTHER CLIPPER SLIDES ACROSS FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY LINGERING MOUNTAIN UPSLOPE DRIVEN MVFR
CIGS ON TUESDAY.

MOISTURE WILL AGAIN INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 455 AM EDT FRIDAY...

RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 29:

ROANOKE......19 IN 1982
BLACKSBURG...17 IN 2001
LYNCHBURG....23 IN 1923 AND 1982
DANVILLE.....23 IN 1966
BLUEFIELD....19 IN 1966 AND 1982
LEWISBURG....18 IN 1983

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS
CLIMATE...AMS/SK



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290804
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
404 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION TODAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE
THIS EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
TUESDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS 1030MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THIS HIGH IS SLOWLY BUILDING INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC WITH MANY LOCATIONS OVER THE PIEDMONT AND INTERIOR
COASTAL PLAIN NOW DECOUPLING EVIDENCED BY CALM CONDITIONS.
MEANWHILE...A GUSTY NW WIND PERSISTS ALONG THE COAST. TEMPERATURES
OVER THE PIEDMONT AND INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN HAVE GENERALLY
DROPPED INTO THE LOW/MID 20S AS OF 330AM WITH LKU SHOWING A
TEMPERATURE OF 18 AT 315AM. FARTHER E...TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S...ALTHOUGH WIND CHILL VALUES ARE IN THE LOW
20S. SEE THE CLIMO SECTION BELOW FOR RECORD LOWS FOR THIS MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES TODAY...WHICH
WILL RESULT IN SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS LOCALLY ALONG WITH A LIGHT
WIND. MIXING WILL BE LIMITED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...SO
HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW/MID 40S ALONG THE COAST...TO LOW 50S
OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC DESPITE FULL SUN. THESE VALUES WILL AVERAGE
ABOUT -1.5 ST DEV BELOW THE SEASONAL MEAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL COLD FRONT
THEN MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY
MONDAY. NUMERICAL MODELS SHOW A DECENT BAND OF UVM SLIDING NW-SE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BETWEEN ABOUT 09-18Z. HOWEVER...MOISTURE
REMAIN VERY LIMITED BELOW 850MB. GIVEN THIS HAVE TRENDED POPS
UPWARD INTO THE HIGH CHC CATEGORY (40-50%) FOR WHAT SHOULD AMOUNT
TO A LIGHT QPF EVENT (~0.10IN OR LESS).

TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP QUICKLY THIS EVENING UNDER A CLEAR SKY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE COLDEST E (LOW 30S) WHERE CLEAR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THE LONGEST. FARTHER W...LOWS SHOULD BE IN
THE MID/UPPER 30S...BUT SURFACE WET-BULBS WILL BE IN THE LOW 30S
SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE ONSET OF PCPN COULD INCLUDE A MIX OF
-RA/IP. THE SURFACE PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT IS MAINLY A WIND
SHIFT...SO HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE WARMER AVERAGING FROM THE UPPER
50S/LOW 60S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE MID 60S INLAND WITH DOWNSLOPE
WESTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY.

A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIVEN BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
TRACKS ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE DAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
ACROSS THE N BY AFTERNOON. A RIBBON OF 20-25% POPS (FOR -SHRA) HAS
BEEN INCLUDED FOR THE NRN TIER COUNTIES AND THIS IS MAINLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY OF THE LOW TRACK. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
GET ANY PCPN S OF THE LOW TRACK WITH DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW.

LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS APPROACHING 70F ON
TUESDAY OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC. THIS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING N OF THE REGION RESULTING IN DEEP LAYERED
WSW FLOW. FORECAST HIGHS HAVE BEEN INCREASED INTO THE UPPER 60S
OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...WITH LOW 60S OVER THE ERN
SHORE...AND LOCALLY COOLER VALUES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS WILL BE AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BETTER AGREEMENT IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO HANDLING
SPLIT FLOW COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO. TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED...GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS NOW WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE DROPPING INTO THE NRN MID-
ATLANTIC REGION LATE TUES NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PROGGED TO TRACK
ACROSS NRN VA/MD TUES NIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY WEDS MORNING. BEST MOISTURE/LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA...BUT WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE NE ZONES LATE TUES NIGHT CLOSEST TO BEST
MOISTURE/LIFT. SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT PUSH WELL OFFSHORE WEDS AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE REGION. MODEST CAA AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL RESULT IN TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND AND MID-UPPER
50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE WEDS
NIGHT-THURS AS A SRN STREAM WAVE LIFTS FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE
TN VALLEY. MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED THANKS TO INCREASING S-SE FLOW.
28/12Z ECMWF QUICKER WITH BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE REGION THURS
AFTERNOON. HAVE DROPPED POPS THURS AFTERNOON...BUT KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SSW FLOW WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPS
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 INLAND TO LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS
THURS. EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE THURS AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...CHANCE FOR PRECIP RAMP UP THURS NIGHT-FRI AS THE SRN
STREAM WAVE LIFTS OVER THE REGION. NRN STREAM WAVE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST ALSO PROGGED TO FLATTEN AND TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE THURS-THURS NIGHT. ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED SFC LOW LOCATES
OVER SERN CANADA THURS NIGHT-FRI MORNING...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE FRI-SAT TIMEFRAME. SPATIAL AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST...BUT WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS THRU SAT
MORNING. SLIGHT WARMER FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND
LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. DEEP UPPER
TROUGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION LATER TODAY. NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE WINDS ONCE
AGAIN DURING THE DAY TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT
AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. THERE WILL BE
SLGT TO LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNS
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS BROAD HI PRES CENTERED OVER THE OH
VALLEY. STRONG WINDS CONTINUE THIS MORNG WITH PRES RISES AND CAA
OVER THE LOCAL AREA. SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE AS PLANNED...ENDING
LATER THIS MORNG OVER THE BAY...THEN OVER THE BAY/SOUND...AND
FINALLY OVER CSTL WTRS MIDDAY AS SEAS SUBSIDE TO BLO 5FT. IMPROVING
MARINE CONDS EXPECTED THIS AFTN AS THE HI CENTERS OVER THE
CAROLINAS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...
CROSSING THE WATERS LATE MON-EARLY MON NIGHT. PREFRONTAL SLY SURGE
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE BAY
AND 20 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. MODELS INDICATE SCA
CONDITIONS...BUT BASED ON WAA AND COLD WATER...EXPECT A SHARP LOW
LEVEL INVERSION TO PREVENT STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE WATER.
HAVE CAPPED SPEEDS BELOW SCA ATTM AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS
CONDS WILL BE CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS. SLY FETCH MAY PUSH SEAS TO 5
FT IN THE NRN COASTAL WATERS MON MORNING. SWLY FLOW RETURNS MON
NIGHT-TUES. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION LATE
TUES WITH ANOTHER FRONT CROSSING THE WATER EARLY WEDS NIGHT. WINDS
STAY AOB 15 KT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDS-THURS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY 3/29:

RIC...22/1923
ORF...25/1982
SBY...18/1923
ECG...24/1982

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/JAO
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/JAO
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS/DAP/LSA
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290804
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
404 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION TODAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE
THIS EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
TUESDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS 1030MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THIS HIGH IS SLOWLY BUILDING INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC WITH MANY LOCATIONS OVER THE PIEDMONT AND INTERIOR
COASTAL PLAIN NOW DECOUPLING EVIDENCED BY CALM CONDITIONS.
MEANWHILE...A GUSTY NW WIND PERSISTS ALONG THE COAST. TEMPERATURES
OVER THE PIEDMONT AND INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN HAVE GENERALLY
DROPPED INTO THE LOW/MID 20S AS OF 330AM WITH LKU SHOWING A
TEMPERATURE OF 18 AT 315AM. FARTHER E...TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S...ALTHOUGH WIND CHILL VALUES ARE IN THE LOW
20S. SEE THE CLIMO SECTION BELOW FOR RECORD LOWS FOR THIS MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES TODAY...WHICH
WILL RESULT IN SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS LOCALLY ALONG WITH A LIGHT
WIND. MIXING WILL BE LIMITED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...SO
HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW/MID 40S ALONG THE COAST...TO LOW 50S
OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC DESPITE FULL SUN. THESE VALUES WILL AVERAGE
ABOUT -1.5 ST DEV BELOW THE SEASONAL MEAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL COLD FRONT
THEN MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY
MONDAY. NUMERICAL MODELS SHOW A DECENT BAND OF UVM SLIDING NW-SE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BETWEEN ABOUT 09-18Z. HOWEVER...MOISTURE
REMAIN VERY LIMITED BELOW 850MB. GIVEN THIS HAVE TRENDED POPS
UPWARD INTO THE HIGH CHC CATEGORY (40-50%) FOR WHAT SHOULD AMOUNT
TO A LIGHT QPF EVENT (~0.10IN OR LESS).

TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP QUICKLY THIS EVENING UNDER A CLEAR SKY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE COLDEST E (LOW 30S) WHERE CLEAR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THE LONGEST. FARTHER W...LOWS SHOULD BE IN
THE MID/UPPER 30S...BUT SURFACE WET-BULBS WILL BE IN THE LOW 30S
SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE ONSET OF PCPN COULD INCLUDE A MIX OF
-RA/IP. THE SURFACE PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT IS MAINLY A WIND
SHIFT...SO HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE WARMER AVERAGING FROM THE UPPER
50S/LOW 60S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE MID 60S INLAND WITH DOWNSLOPE
WESTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY.

A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIVEN BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
TRACKS ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE DAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
ACROSS THE N BY AFTERNOON. A RIBBON OF 20-25% POPS (FOR -SHRA) HAS
BEEN INCLUDED FOR THE NRN TIER COUNTIES AND THIS IS MAINLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY OF THE LOW TRACK. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
GET ANY PCPN S OF THE LOW TRACK WITH DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW.

LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS APPROACHING 70F ON
TUESDAY OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC. THIS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING N OF THE REGION RESULTING IN DEEP LAYERED
WSW FLOW. FORECAST HIGHS HAVE BEEN INCREASED INTO THE UPPER 60S
OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...WITH LOW 60S OVER THE ERN
SHORE...AND LOCALLY COOLER VALUES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS WILL BE AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BETTER AGREEMENT IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO HANDLING
SPLIT FLOW COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO. TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED...GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS NOW WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE DROPPING INTO THE NRN MID-
ATLANTIC REGION LATE TUES NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PROGGED TO TRACK
ACROSS NRN VA/MD TUES NIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY WEDS MORNING. BEST MOISTURE/LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA...BUT WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE NE ZONES LATE TUES NIGHT CLOSEST TO BEST
MOISTURE/LIFT. SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT PUSH WELL OFFSHORE WEDS AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE REGION. MODEST CAA AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL RESULT IN TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND AND MID-UPPER
50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE WEDS
NIGHT-THURS AS A SRN STREAM WAVE LIFTS FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE
TN VALLEY. MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED THANKS TO INCREASING S-SE FLOW.
28/12Z ECMWF QUICKER WITH BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE REGION THURS
AFTERNOON. HAVE DROPPED POPS THURS AFTERNOON...BUT KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SSW FLOW WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPS
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 INLAND TO LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS
THURS. EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE THURS AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...CHANCE FOR PRECIP RAMP UP THURS NIGHT-FRI AS THE SRN
STREAM WAVE LIFTS OVER THE REGION. NRN STREAM WAVE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST ALSO PROGGED TO FLATTEN AND TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE THURS-THURS NIGHT. ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED SFC LOW LOCATES
OVER SERN CANADA THURS NIGHT-FRI MORNING...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE FRI-SAT TIMEFRAME. SPATIAL AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST...BUT WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS THRU SAT
MORNING. SLIGHT WARMER FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND
LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. DEEP UPPER
TROUGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION LATER TODAY. NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE WINDS ONCE
AGAIN DURING THE DAY TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT
AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. THERE WILL BE
SLGT TO LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNS
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS BROAD HI PRES CENTERED OVER THE OH
VALLEY. STRONG WINDS CONTINUE THIS MORNG WITH PRES RISES AND CAA
OVER THE LOCAL AREA. SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE AS PLANNED...ENDING
LATER THIS MORNG OVER THE BAY...THEN OVER THE BAY/SOUND...AND
FINALLY OVER CSTL WTRS MIDDAY AS SEAS SUBSIDE TO BLO 5FT. IMPROVING
MARINE CONDS EXPECTED THIS AFTN AS THE HI CENTERS OVER THE
CAROLINAS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...
CROSSING THE WATERS LATE MON-EARLY MON NIGHT. PREFRONTAL SLY SURGE
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE BAY
AND 20 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. MODELS INDICATE SCA
CONDITIONS...BUT BASED ON WAA AND COLD WATER...EXPECT A SHARP LOW
LEVEL INVERSION TO PREVENT STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE WATER.
HAVE CAPPED SPEEDS BELOW SCA ATTM AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS
CONDS WILL BE CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS. SLY FETCH MAY PUSH SEAS TO 5
FT IN THE NRN COASTAL WATERS MON MORNING. SWLY FLOW RETURNS MON
NIGHT-TUES. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION LATE
TUES WITH ANOTHER FRONT CROSSING THE WATER EARLY WEDS NIGHT. WINDS
STAY AOB 15 KT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDS-THURS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY 3/29:

RIC...22/1923
ORF...25/1982
SBY...18/1923
ECG...24/1982

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/JAO
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/JAO
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS/DAP/LSA
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290804
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
404 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION TODAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE
THIS EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
TUESDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS 1030MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THIS HIGH IS SLOWLY BUILDING INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC WITH MANY LOCATIONS OVER THE PIEDMONT AND INTERIOR
COASTAL PLAIN NOW DECOUPLING EVIDENCED BY CALM CONDITIONS.
MEANWHILE...A GUSTY NW WIND PERSISTS ALONG THE COAST. TEMPERATURES
OVER THE PIEDMONT AND INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN HAVE GENERALLY
DROPPED INTO THE LOW/MID 20S AS OF 330AM WITH LKU SHOWING A
TEMPERATURE OF 18 AT 315AM. FARTHER E...TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S...ALTHOUGH WIND CHILL VALUES ARE IN THE LOW
20S. SEE THE CLIMO SECTION BELOW FOR RECORD LOWS FOR THIS MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES TODAY...WHICH
WILL RESULT IN SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS LOCALLY ALONG WITH A LIGHT
WIND. MIXING WILL BE LIMITED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...SO
HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW/MID 40S ALONG THE COAST...TO LOW 50S
OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC DESPITE FULL SUN. THESE VALUES WILL AVERAGE
ABOUT -1.5 ST DEV BELOW THE SEASONAL MEAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL COLD FRONT
THEN MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY
MONDAY. NUMERICAL MODELS SHOW A DECENT BAND OF UVM SLIDING NW-SE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BETWEEN ABOUT 09-18Z. HOWEVER...MOISTURE
REMAIN VERY LIMITED BELOW 850MB. GIVEN THIS HAVE TRENDED POPS
UPWARD INTO THE HIGH CHC CATEGORY (40-50%) FOR WHAT SHOULD AMOUNT
TO A LIGHT QPF EVENT (~0.10IN OR LESS).

TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP QUICKLY THIS EVENING UNDER A CLEAR SKY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE COLDEST E (LOW 30S) WHERE CLEAR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THE LONGEST. FARTHER W...LOWS SHOULD BE IN
THE MID/UPPER 30S...BUT SURFACE WET-BULBS WILL BE IN THE LOW 30S
SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE ONSET OF PCPN COULD INCLUDE A MIX OF
-RA/IP. THE SURFACE PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT IS MAINLY A WIND
SHIFT...SO HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE WARMER AVERAGING FROM THE UPPER
50S/LOW 60S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE MID 60S INLAND WITH DOWNSLOPE
WESTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY.

A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIVEN BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
TRACKS ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE DAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
ACROSS THE N BY AFTERNOON. A RIBBON OF 20-25% POPS (FOR -SHRA) HAS
BEEN INCLUDED FOR THE NRN TIER COUNTIES AND THIS IS MAINLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY OF THE LOW TRACK. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
GET ANY PCPN S OF THE LOW TRACK WITH DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW.

LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS APPROACHING 70F ON
TUESDAY OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC. THIS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING N OF THE REGION RESULTING IN DEEP LAYERED
WSW FLOW. FORECAST HIGHS HAVE BEEN INCREASED INTO THE UPPER 60S
OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...WITH LOW 60S OVER THE ERN
SHORE...AND LOCALLY COOLER VALUES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS WILL BE AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BETTER AGREEMENT IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO HANDLING
SPLIT FLOW COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO. TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED...GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS NOW WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE DROPPING INTO THE NRN MID-
ATLANTIC REGION LATE TUES NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PROGGED TO TRACK
ACROSS NRN VA/MD TUES NIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY WEDS MORNING. BEST MOISTURE/LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA...BUT WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE NE ZONES LATE TUES NIGHT CLOSEST TO BEST
MOISTURE/LIFT. SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT PUSH WELL OFFSHORE WEDS AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE REGION. MODEST CAA AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL RESULT IN TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND AND MID-UPPER
50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE WEDS
NIGHT-THURS AS A SRN STREAM WAVE LIFTS FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE
TN VALLEY. MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED THANKS TO INCREASING S-SE FLOW.
28/12Z ECMWF QUICKER WITH BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE REGION THURS
AFTERNOON. HAVE DROPPED POPS THURS AFTERNOON...BUT KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SSW FLOW WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPS
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 INLAND TO LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS
THURS. EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE THURS AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...CHANCE FOR PRECIP RAMP UP THURS NIGHT-FRI AS THE SRN
STREAM WAVE LIFTS OVER THE REGION. NRN STREAM WAVE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST ALSO PROGGED TO FLATTEN AND TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE THURS-THURS NIGHT. ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED SFC LOW LOCATES
OVER SERN CANADA THURS NIGHT-FRI MORNING...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE FRI-SAT TIMEFRAME. SPATIAL AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST...BUT WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS THRU SAT
MORNING. SLIGHT WARMER FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND
LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. DEEP UPPER
TROUGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION LATER TODAY. NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE WINDS ONCE
AGAIN DURING THE DAY TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT
AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. THERE WILL BE
SLGT TO LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNS
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS BROAD HI PRES CENTERED OVER THE OH
VALLEY. STRONG WINDS CONTINUE THIS MORNG WITH PRES RISES AND CAA
OVER THE LOCAL AREA. SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE AS PLANNED...ENDING
LATER THIS MORNG OVER THE BAY...THEN OVER THE BAY/SOUND...AND
FINALLY OVER CSTL WTRS MIDDAY AS SEAS SUBSIDE TO BLO 5FT. IMPROVING
MARINE CONDS EXPECTED THIS AFTN AS THE HI CENTERS OVER THE
CAROLINAS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...
CROSSING THE WATERS LATE MON-EARLY MON NIGHT. PREFRONTAL SLY SURGE
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE BAY
AND 20 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. MODELS INDICATE SCA
CONDITIONS...BUT BASED ON WAA AND COLD WATER...EXPECT A SHARP LOW
LEVEL INVERSION TO PREVENT STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE WATER.
HAVE CAPPED SPEEDS BELOW SCA ATTM AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS
CONDS WILL BE CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS. SLY FETCH MAY PUSH SEAS TO 5
FT IN THE NRN COASTAL WATERS MON MORNING. SWLY FLOW RETURNS MON
NIGHT-TUES. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION LATE
TUES WITH ANOTHER FRONT CROSSING THE WATER EARLY WEDS NIGHT. WINDS
STAY AOB 15 KT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDS-THURS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY 3/29:

RIC...22/1923
ORF...25/1982
SBY...18/1923
ECG...24/1982

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/JAO
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/JAO
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS/DAP/LSA
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290804
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
404 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION TODAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE
THIS EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
TUESDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS 1030MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THIS HIGH IS SLOWLY BUILDING INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC WITH MANY LOCATIONS OVER THE PIEDMONT AND INTERIOR
COASTAL PLAIN NOW DECOUPLING EVIDENCED BY CALM CONDITIONS.
MEANWHILE...A GUSTY NW WIND PERSISTS ALONG THE COAST. TEMPERATURES
OVER THE PIEDMONT AND INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN HAVE GENERALLY
DROPPED INTO THE LOW/MID 20S AS OF 330AM WITH LKU SHOWING A
TEMPERATURE OF 18 AT 315AM. FARTHER E...TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S...ALTHOUGH WIND CHILL VALUES ARE IN THE LOW
20S. SEE THE CLIMO SECTION BELOW FOR RECORD LOWS FOR THIS MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES TODAY...WHICH
WILL RESULT IN SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS LOCALLY ALONG WITH A LIGHT
WIND. MIXING WILL BE LIMITED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...SO
HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW/MID 40S ALONG THE COAST...TO LOW 50S
OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC DESPITE FULL SUN. THESE VALUES WILL AVERAGE
ABOUT -1.5 ST DEV BELOW THE SEASONAL MEAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL COLD FRONT
THEN MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY
MONDAY. NUMERICAL MODELS SHOW A DECENT BAND OF UVM SLIDING NW-SE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BETWEEN ABOUT 09-18Z. HOWEVER...MOISTURE
REMAIN VERY LIMITED BELOW 850MB. GIVEN THIS HAVE TRENDED POPS
UPWARD INTO THE HIGH CHC CATEGORY (40-50%) FOR WHAT SHOULD AMOUNT
TO A LIGHT QPF EVENT (~0.10IN OR LESS).

TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP QUICKLY THIS EVENING UNDER A CLEAR SKY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE COLDEST E (LOW 30S) WHERE CLEAR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THE LONGEST. FARTHER W...LOWS SHOULD BE IN
THE MID/UPPER 30S...BUT SURFACE WET-BULBS WILL BE IN THE LOW 30S
SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE ONSET OF PCPN COULD INCLUDE A MIX OF
-RA/IP. THE SURFACE PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT IS MAINLY A WIND
SHIFT...SO HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE WARMER AVERAGING FROM THE UPPER
50S/LOW 60S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE MID 60S INLAND WITH DOWNSLOPE
WESTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY.

A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIVEN BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
TRACKS ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE DAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
ACROSS THE N BY AFTERNOON. A RIBBON OF 20-25% POPS (FOR -SHRA) HAS
BEEN INCLUDED FOR THE NRN TIER COUNTIES AND THIS IS MAINLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY OF THE LOW TRACK. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
GET ANY PCPN S OF THE LOW TRACK WITH DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW.

LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS APPROACHING 70F ON
TUESDAY OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC. THIS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING N OF THE REGION RESULTING IN DEEP LAYERED
WSW FLOW. FORECAST HIGHS HAVE BEEN INCREASED INTO THE UPPER 60S
OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...WITH LOW 60S OVER THE ERN
SHORE...AND LOCALLY COOLER VALUES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS WILL BE AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BETTER AGREEMENT IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO HANDLING
SPLIT FLOW COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO. TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED...GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS NOW WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE DROPPING INTO THE NRN MID-
ATLANTIC REGION LATE TUES NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PROGGED TO TRACK
ACROSS NRN VA/MD TUES NIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY WEDS MORNING. BEST MOISTURE/LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA...BUT WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE NE ZONES LATE TUES NIGHT CLOSEST TO BEST
MOISTURE/LIFT. SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT PUSH WELL OFFSHORE WEDS AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE REGION. MODEST CAA AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL RESULT IN TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND AND MID-UPPER
50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE WEDS
NIGHT-THURS AS A SRN STREAM WAVE LIFTS FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE
TN VALLEY. MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED THANKS TO INCREASING S-SE FLOW.
28/12Z ECMWF QUICKER WITH BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE REGION THURS
AFTERNOON. HAVE DROPPED POPS THURS AFTERNOON...BUT KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SSW FLOW WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPS
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 INLAND TO LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS
THURS. EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE THURS AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...CHANCE FOR PRECIP RAMP UP THURS NIGHT-FRI AS THE SRN
STREAM WAVE LIFTS OVER THE REGION. NRN STREAM WAVE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST ALSO PROGGED TO FLATTEN AND TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE THURS-THURS NIGHT. ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED SFC LOW LOCATES
OVER SERN CANADA THURS NIGHT-FRI MORNING...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE FRI-SAT TIMEFRAME. SPATIAL AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST...BUT WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS THRU SAT
MORNING. SLIGHT WARMER FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND
LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. DEEP UPPER
TROUGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION LATER TODAY. NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE WINDS ONCE
AGAIN DURING THE DAY TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT
AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. THERE WILL BE
SLGT TO LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNS
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS BROAD HI PRES CENTERED OVER THE OH
VALLEY. STRONG WINDS CONTINUE THIS MORNG WITH PRES RISES AND CAA
OVER THE LOCAL AREA. SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE AS PLANNED...ENDING
LATER THIS MORNG OVER THE BAY...THEN OVER THE BAY/SOUND...AND
FINALLY OVER CSTL WTRS MIDDAY AS SEAS SUBSIDE TO BLO 5FT. IMPROVING
MARINE CONDS EXPECTED THIS AFTN AS THE HI CENTERS OVER THE
CAROLINAS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...
CROSSING THE WATERS LATE MON-EARLY MON NIGHT. PREFRONTAL SLY SURGE
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE BAY
AND 20 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. MODELS INDICATE SCA
CONDITIONS...BUT BASED ON WAA AND COLD WATER...EXPECT A SHARP LOW
LEVEL INVERSION TO PREVENT STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE WATER.
HAVE CAPPED SPEEDS BELOW SCA ATTM AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS
CONDS WILL BE CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS. SLY FETCH MAY PUSH SEAS TO 5
FT IN THE NRN COASTAL WATERS MON MORNING. SWLY FLOW RETURNS MON
NIGHT-TUES. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION LATE
TUES WITH ANOTHER FRONT CROSSING THE WATER EARLY WEDS NIGHT. WINDS
STAY AOB 15 KT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDS-THURS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY 3/29:

RIC...22/1923
ORF...25/1982
SBY...18/1923
ECG...24/1982

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/JAO
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/JAO
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS/DAP/LSA
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290804
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
404 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION TODAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE
THIS EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
TUESDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS 1030MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THIS HIGH IS SLOWLY BUILDING INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC WITH MANY LOCATIONS OVER THE PIEDMONT AND INTERIOR
COASTAL PLAIN NOW DECOUPLING EVIDENCED BY CALM CONDITIONS.
MEANWHILE...A GUSTY NW WIND PERSISTS ALONG THE COAST. TEMPERATURES
OVER THE PIEDMONT AND INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN HAVE GENERALLY
DROPPED INTO THE LOW/MID 20S AS OF 330AM WITH LKU SHOWING A
TEMPERATURE OF 18 AT 315AM. FARTHER E...TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S...ALTHOUGH WIND CHILL VALUES ARE IN THE LOW
20S. SEE THE CLIMO SECTION BELOW FOR RECORD LOWS FOR THIS MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES TODAY...WHICH
WILL RESULT IN SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS LOCALLY ALONG WITH A LIGHT
WIND. MIXING WILL BE LIMITED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...SO
HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW/MID 40S ALONG THE COAST...TO LOW 50S
OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC DESPITE FULL SUN. THESE VALUES WILL AVERAGE
ABOUT -1.5 ST DEV BELOW THE SEASONAL MEAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL COLD FRONT
THEN MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY
MONDAY. NUMERICAL MODELS SHOW A DECENT BAND OF UVM SLIDING NW-SE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BETWEEN ABOUT 09-18Z. HOWEVER...MOISTURE
REMAIN VERY LIMITED BELOW 850MB. GIVEN THIS HAVE TRENDED POPS
UPWARD INTO THE HIGH CHC CATEGORY (40-50%) FOR WHAT SHOULD AMOUNT
TO A LIGHT QPF EVENT (~0.10IN OR LESS).

TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP QUICKLY THIS EVENING UNDER A CLEAR SKY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE COLDEST E (LOW 30S) WHERE CLEAR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THE LONGEST. FARTHER W...LOWS SHOULD BE IN
THE MID/UPPER 30S...BUT SURFACE WET-BULBS WILL BE IN THE LOW 30S
SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE ONSET OF PCPN COULD INCLUDE A MIX OF
-RA/IP. THE SURFACE PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT IS MAINLY A WIND
SHIFT...SO HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE WARMER AVERAGING FROM THE UPPER
50S/LOW 60S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE MID 60S INLAND WITH DOWNSLOPE
WESTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY.

A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIVEN BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
TRACKS ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE DAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
ACROSS THE N BY AFTERNOON. A RIBBON OF 20-25% POPS (FOR -SHRA) HAS
BEEN INCLUDED FOR THE NRN TIER COUNTIES AND THIS IS MAINLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY OF THE LOW TRACK. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
GET ANY PCPN S OF THE LOW TRACK WITH DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW.

LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS APPROACHING 70F ON
TUESDAY OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC. THIS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING N OF THE REGION RESULTING IN DEEP LAYERED
WSW FLOW. FORECAST HIGHS HAVE BEEN INCREASED INTO THE UPPER 60S
OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...WITH LOW 60S OVER THE ERN
SHORE...AND LOCALLY COOLER VALUES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS WILL BE AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BETTER AGREEMENT IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO HANDLING
SPLIT FLOW COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO. TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED...GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS NOW WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE DROPPING INTO THE NRN MID-
ATLANTIC REGION LATE TUES NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PROGGED TO TRACK
ACROSS NRN VA/MD TUES NIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY WEDS MORNING. BEST MOISTURE/LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA...BUT WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE NE ZONES LATE TUES NIGHT CLOSEST TO BEST
MOISTURE/LIFT. SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT PUSH WELL OFFSHORE WEDS AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE REGION. MODEST CAA AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL RESULT IN TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND AND MID-UPPER
50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE WEDS
NIGHT-THURS AS A SRN STREAM WAVE LIFTS FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE
TN VALLEY. MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED THANKS TO INCREASING S-SE FLOW.
28/12Z ECMWF QUICKER WITH BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE REGION THURS
AFTERNOON. HAVE DROPPED POPS THURS AFTERNOON...BUT KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SSW FLOW WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPS
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 INLAND TO LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS
THURS. EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE THURS AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...CHANCE FOR PRECIP RAMP UP THURS NIGHT-FRI AS THE SRN
STREAM WAVE LIFTS OVER THE REGION. NRN STREAM WAVE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST ALSO PROGGED TO FLATTEN AND TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE THURS-THURS NIGHT. ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED SFC LOW LOCATES
OVER SERN CANADA THURS NIGHT-FRI MORNING...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE FRI-SAT TIMEFRAME. SPATIAL AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST...BUT WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS THRU SAT
MORNING. SLIGHT WARMER FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND
LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. DEEP UPPER
TROUGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION LATER TODAY. NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE WINDS ONCE
AGAIN DURING THE DAY TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT
AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. THERE WILL BE
SLGT TO LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNS
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS BROAD HI PRES CENTERED OVER THE OH
VALLEY. STRONG WINDS CONTINUE THIS MORNG WITH PRES RISES AND CAA
OVER THE LOCAL AREA. SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE AS PLANNED...ENDING
LATER THIS MORNG OVER THE BAY...THEN OVER THE BAY/SOUND...AND
FINALLY OVER CSTL WTRS MIDDAY AS SEAS SUBSIDE TO BLO 5FT. IMPROVING
MARINE CONDS EXPECTED THIS AFTN AS THE HI CENTERS OVER THE
CAROLINAS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...
CROSSING THE WATERS LATE MON-EARLY MON NIGHT. PREFRONTAL SLY SURGE
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE BAY
AND 20 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. MODELS INDICATE SCA
CONDITIONS...BUT BASED ON WAA AND COLD WATER...EXPECT A SHARP LOW
LEVEL INVERSION TO PREVENT STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE WATER.
HAVE CAPPED SPEEDS BELOW SCA ATTM AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS
CONDS WILL BE CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS. SLY FETCH MAY PUSH SEAS TO 5
FT IN THE NRN COASTAL WATERS MON MORNING. SWLY FLOW RETURNS MON
NIGHT-TUES. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION LATE
TUES WITH ANOTHER FRONT CROSSING THE WATER EARLY WEDS NIGHT. WINDS
STAY AOB 15 KT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDS-THURS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY 3/29:

RIC...22/1923
ORF...25/1982
SBY...18/1923
ECG...24/1982

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/JAO
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/JAO
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS/DAP/LSA
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...AKQ



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290804
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
404 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION TODAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE
THIS EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
TUESDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS 1030MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THIS HIGH IS SLOWLY BUILDING INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC WITH MANY LOCATIONS OVER THE PIEDMONT AND INTERIOR
COASTAL PLAIN NOW DECOUPLING EVIDENCED BY CALM CONDITIONS.
MEANWHILE...A GUSTY NW WIND PERSISTS ALONG THE COAST. TEMPERATURES
OVER THE PIEDMONT AND INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN HAVE GENERALLY
DROPPED INTO THE LOW/MID 20S AS OF 330AM WITH LKU SHOWING A
TEMPERATURE OF 18 AT 315AM. FARTHER E...TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S...ALTHOUGH WIND CHILL VALUES ARE IN THE LOW
20S. SEE THE CLIMO SECTION BELOW FOR RECORD LOWS FOR THIS MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES TODAY...WHICH
WILL RESULT IN SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS LOCALLY ALONG WITH A LIGHT
WIND. MIXING WILL BE LIMITED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...SO
HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW/MID 40S ALONG THE COAST...TO LOW 50S
OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC DESPITE FULL SUN. THESE VALUES WILL AVERAGE
ABOUT -1.5 ST DEV BELOW THE SEASONAL MEAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL COLD FRONT
THEN MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY
MONDAY. NUMERICAL MODELS SHOW A DECENT BAND OF UVM SLIDING NW-SE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BETWEEN ABOUT 09-18Z. HOWEVER...MOISTURE
REMAIN VERY LIMITED BELOW 850MB. GIVEN THIS HAVE TRENDED POPS
UPWARD INTO THE HIGH CHC CATEGORY (40-50%) FOR WHAT SHOULD AMOUNT
TO A LIGHT QPF EVENT (~0.10IN OR LESS).

TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP QUICKLY THIS EVENING UNDER A CLEAR SKY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE COLDEST E (LOW 30S) WHERE CLEAR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THE LONGEST. FARTHER W...LOWS SHOULD BE IN
THE MID/UPPER 30S...BUT SURFACE WET-BULBS WILL BE IN THE LOW 30S
SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE ONSET OF PCPN COULD INCLUDE A MIX OF
-RA/IP. THE SURFACE PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT IS MAINLY A WIND
SHIFT...SO HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE WARMER AVERAGING FROM THE UPPER
50S/LOW 60S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE MID 60S INLAND WITH DOWNSLOPE
WESTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY.

A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIVEN BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
TRACKS ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE DAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
ACROSS THE N BY AFTERNOON. A RIBBON OF 20-25% POPS (FOR -SHRA) HAS
BEEN INCLUDED FOR THE NRN TIER COUNTIES AND THIS IS MAINLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY OF THE LOW TRACK. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
GET ANY PCPN S OF THE LOW TRACK WITH DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW.

LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS APPROACHING 70F ON
TUESDAY OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC. THIS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING N OF THE REGION RESULTING IN DEEP LAYERED
WSW FLOW. FORECAST HIGHS HAVE BEEN INCREASED INTO THE UPPER 60S
OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...WITH LOW 60S OVER THE ERN
SHORE...AND LOCALLY COOLER VALUES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS WILL BE AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BETTER AGREEMENT IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO HANDLING
SPLIT FLOW COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO. TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED...GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS NOW WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE DROPPING INTO THE NRN MID-
ATLANTIC REGION LATE TUES NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PROGGED TO TRACK
ACROSS NRN VA/MD TUES NIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY WEDS MORNING. BEST MOISTURE/LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA...BUT WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE NE ZONES LATE TUES NIGHT CLOSEST TO BEST
MOISTURE/LIFT. SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT PUSH WELL OFFSHORE WEDS AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE REGION. MODEST CAA AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL RESULT IN TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND AND MID-UPPER
50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE WEDS
NIGHT-THURS AS A SRN STREAM WAVE LIFTS FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE
TN VALLEY. MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED THANKS TO INCREASING S-SE FLOW.
28/12Z ECMWF QUICKER WITH BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE REGION THURS
AFTERNOON. HAVE DROPPED POPS THURS AFTERNOON...BUT KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SSW FLOW WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPS
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 INLAND TO LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS
THURS. EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE THURS AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...CHANCE FOR PRECIP RAMP UP THURS NIGHT-FRI AS THE SRN
STREAM WAVE LIFTS OVER THE REGION. NRN STREAM WAVE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST ALSO PROGGED TO FLATTEN AND TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE THURS-THURS NIGHT. ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED SFC LOW LOCATES
OVER SERN CANADA THURS NIGHT-FRI MORNING...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE FRI-SAT TIMEFRAME. SPATIAL AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST...BUT WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS THRU SAT
MORNING. SLIGHT WARMER FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND
LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. DEEP UPPER
TROUGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION LATER TODAY. NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE WINDS ONCE
AGAIN DURING THE DAY TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT
AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. THERE WILL BE
SLGT TO LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNS
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS BROAD HI PRES CENTERED OVER THE OH
VALLEY. STRONG WINDS CONTINUE THIS MORNG WITH PRES RISES AND CAA
OVER THE LOCAL AREA. SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE AS PLANNED...ENDING
LATER THIS MORNG OVER THE BAY...THEN OVER THE BAY/SOUND...AND
FINALLY OVER CSTL WTRS MIDDAY AS SEAS SUBSIDE TO BLO 5FT. IMPROVING
MARINE CONDS EXPECTED THIS AFTN AS THE HI CENTERS OVER THE
CAROLINAS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...
CROSSING THE WATERS LATE MON-EARLY MON NIGHT. PREFRONTAL SLY SURGE
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE BAY
AND 20 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. MODELS INDICATE SCA
CONDITIONS...BUT BASED ON WAA AND COLD WATER...EXPECT A SHARP LOW
LEVEL INVERSION TO PREVENT STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE WATER.
HAVE CAPPED SPEEDS BELOW SCA ATTM AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS
CONDS WILL BE CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS. SLY FETCH MAY PUSH SEAS TO 5
FT IN THE NRN COASTAL WATERS MON MORNING. SWLY FLOW RETURNS MON
NIGHT-TUES. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION LATE
TUES WITH ANOTHER FRONT CROSSING THE WATER EARLY WEDS NIGHT. WINDS
STAY AOB 15 KT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDS-THURS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY 3/29:

RIC...22/1923
ORF...25/1982
SBY...18/1923
ECG...24/1982

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/JAO
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/JAO
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS/DAP/LSA
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KLWX 290757
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
357 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON
MONDAY. A REINFORCING CLIPPER LOW WILL PASS OVER THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT FOLLOWS WILL SLIDE TO OUR SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR WARM TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MS VALLEY. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. IT WILL BE A CLEAR
AND COLD START TO THE DAY...WITH ALL LOCATIONS BELOW THE 30F MARK.
THE HIGH WILL QUICKLY SLIDE TO THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY. DESPITE
LESSENING WINDS AND FULL SUN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS THERE WILL NOT BE RAPID WAA. DID SIDE WITH
WARMER GFS-BASED GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM QUICKLY APPROACHES
TONIGHT. SFC LOW AND BEST DYNAMIC LIFT WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER A STRONG LLJ WILL ACCOMPANY THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
AND BRING DECENT MOISTURE RETURN IN THE NARROW WARM SECTOR WHICH
WILL SPREAD EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT (INCREASE IN PWAT FROM AROUND 0.10
AT 00Z LAST EVENING UP TO AROUND 0.75 LATE TONIGHT). GIVEN
CONSISTENCY OF QPF RESPONSE IN MODEL GUIDANCE...FORECAST POPS HAVE
BEEN INCREASED QUITE A BIT...WITH EVERYONE AT LEAST 20 PCT NOW. THE
ORIENTATION OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WRT TO MOUNTAINS LENDS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER CHANCES EXIST FROM CENTRAL VA TO SOUTHERN MD...AND THE
GREATEST PROBS ARE IN THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL
FALL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST LIES IN P-TYPE (SHOULD ANY FALL).
WITH THE HIGH TO THE SE...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALREADY BE
ESTABLISHED...SO TEMP FALLS WILL BE RELATED TO NOCTURNAL AND WETBULB
PROCESSES (AMBIENT AIRMASS QUITE DRY). LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF 2M
TEMPS OVER MOS. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE TEMPS LEVEL OFF OR PERHAPS EVEN
SLIGHTLY RISE IN SOME SPOTS. WITH THAT SAID...THERMAL PROFILES ARE
MARGINAL FOR RAIN AND SNOW WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 30S. NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME SLEET COULD FALL OR EVEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN (MAINLY NORTHERN MD AND THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS).
HOWEVER WITHOUT A CLASSIC WARM NOSE...LIMITED TO ONLY RA/SN NOW. THE
AREAS OF MOST CONCERN FOR TEMPS ALSO HAVE LOWER CHANCE OF PRECIP.
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS COULD SEE AROUND AN
INCH OF SNOW...BUT MIXING IS EVEN POSSIBLE THERE.

THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL QUICKLY SLIDE SE BY MID
MONDAY MORNING. CAA WILL BE LIMITED AS LLVL FLOW REMAINS WESTERLY.
EFFICIENT MIXING WILL MEAN POSSIBLE GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH.
HIGHEST TERRAIN COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER...BUT APPEARS TO BE BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY BE WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAY...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S
EXCEPT IN THE HIGH TERRAIN (SIDED TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE SETTLED WEATHER BETWEEN SYSTEMS. NEXT UP IS
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SHOWN IN THE GFS AND EURO FAIRLY SIMILARLY. IT
PASSES SE THROUGH THE MID ATL ON TUESDAY DAY. LOW LVL THICKNESSES ON
BOTH ALSO SHOW ANY PRECIP BEING RAIN. GFS IS MOST BULLISH ON POPS.
WENT BETWEEN THAT AND THE LESS GENEROUS EURO. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE
LIGHT.

AFTER THAT HIGH MOVES QUICKLY OVER AND THEN TO OUR EAST WITH SW FLOW
DEVELOPING. THAT SHOULD BRING A COUPLE OF WARM DAYS TO THE REGION
THU AND FRI BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES IN AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE THREAT FOR GUSTS TO 20 KT WILL
DIMINISH THIS MORNING. THE NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK AND BECOME
SOUTHERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF A PASSING SHOWER LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY...GREATEST AT CHO. IF PRECIP IS DOES DEVELOP AT THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS...IT IS POSSIBLE IT COULD BE A RA/SN MIX. WESTERLY WINDS
INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT AND GUST OF 20-30 KT DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

MVFR POSSIBLE AT THE TERMINALS ON TUESDAY DAY WITH A CLIPPER PASSING
THROUGH. AFTER THAT...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THU. MVFR TO
POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS MAY MOVE IN LATE IN THE WEEK IN ADVANCE OF
THE LATE WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...

OCCASIONAL NW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE
SHOULD SUBSIDE GRADUALLY TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE SCA
WILL EXPIRE FROM NW TO SE. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH THIS EVENING
AND TURNS WINDS SOUTHERLY. THESE WILL BEGIN TO CHANNEL UP THE BAY
WITH ANOTHER SCA GOING INTO EFFECT AT MIDNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS EARLY MONDAY MORNING SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST AND PERHAPS
BRINGING A SHOWER. BEHIND THE FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST UP TO
30 KT THROUGH MONDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FROM MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE WINDS CAN SUBSIDE. LATER TUE INTO TUE EVE IS
ALSO A POSSIBILITY AFTER THE CLIPPER PASSES THROUGH WITH AN INCREASE
IN WINDS TO NEAR 20KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.CLIMATE...

EARLY THIS MORNING...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH RECORD LOWS FOR
THE MARCH 29TH AT DULLES.  BWI AND DCA RECORDS SHOULD REMAIN SAFE.

SITE...3/29 RECORD MIN T
DCA......18 (1923)
BWI......18 (1923)
IAD......20 (1982)

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ530>532-
     537>540-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ533-
     534-541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ535-536.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CAS
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...CAS
AVIATION...ADS/CAS
MARINE...ADS/CAS
CLIMATE...CAS/DFH



000
FXUS61 KLWX 290757
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
357 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON
MONDAY. A REINFORCING CLIPPER LOW WILL PASS OVER THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT FOLLOWS WILL SLIDE TO OUR SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR WARM TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MS VALLEY. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. IT WILL BE A CLEAR
AND COLD START TO THE DAY...WITH ALL LOCATIONS BELOW THE 30F MARK.
THE HIGH WILL QUICKLY SLIDE TO THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY. DESPITE
LESSENING WINDS AND FULL SUN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS THERE WILL NOT BE RAPID WAA. DID SIDE WITH
WARMER GFS-BASED GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM QUICKLY APPROACHES
TONIGHT. SFC LOW AND BEST DYNAMIC LIFT WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER A STRONG LLJ WILL ACCOMPANY THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
AND BRING DECENT MOISTURE RETURN IN THE NARROW WARM SECTOR WHICH
WILL SPREAD EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT (INCREASE IN PWAT FROM AROUND 0.10
AT 00Z LAST EVENING UP TO AROUND 0.75 LATE TONIGHT). GIVEN
CONSISTENCY OF QPF RESPONSE IN MODEL GUIDANCE...FORECAST POPS HAVE
BEEN INCREASED QUITE A BIT...WITH EVERYONE AT LEAST 20 PCT NOW. THE
ORIENTATION OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WRT TO MOUNTAINS LENDS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER CHANCES EXIST FROM CENTRAL VA TO SOUTHERN MD...AND THE
GREATEST PROBS ARE IN THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL
FALL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST LIES IN P-TYPE (SHOULD ANY FALL).
WITH THE HIGH TO THE SE...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALREADY BE
ESTABLISHED...SO TEMP FALLS WILL BE RELATED TO NOCTURNAL AND WETBULB
PROCESSES (AMBIENT AIRMASS QUITE DRY). LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF 2M
TEMPS OVER MOS. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE TEMPS LEVEL OFF OR PERHAPS EVEN
SLIGHTLY RISE IN SOME SPOTS. WITH THAT SAID...THERMAL PROFILES ARE
MARGINAL FOR RAIN AND SNOW WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 30S. NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME SLEET COULD FALL OR EVEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN (MAINLY NORTHERN MD AND THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS).
HOWEVER WITHOUT A CLASSIC WARM NOSE...LIMITED TO ONLY RA/SN NOW. THE
AREAS OF MOST CONCERN FOR TEMPS ALSO HAVE LOWER CHANCE OF PRECIP.
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS COULD SEE AROUND AN
INCH OF SNOW...BUT MIXING IS EVEN POSSIBLE THERE.

THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL QUICKLY SLIDE SE BY MID
MONDAY MORNING. CAA WILL BE LIMITED AS LLVL FLOW REMAINS WESTERLY.
EFFICIENT MIXING WILL MEAN POSSIBLE GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH.
HIGHEST TERRAIN COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER...BUT APPEARS TO BE BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY BE WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAY...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S
EXCEPT IN THE HIGH TERRAIN (SIDED TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE SETTLED WEATHER BETWEEN SYSTEMS. NEXT UP IS
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SHOWN IN THE GFS AND EURO FAIRLY SIMILARLY. IT
PASSES SE THROUGH THE MID ATL ON TUESDAY DAY. LOW LVL THICKNESSES ON
BOTH ALSO SHOW ANY PRECIP BEING RAIN. GFS IS MOST BULLISH ON POPS.
WENT BETWEEN THAT AND THE LESS GENEROUS EURO. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE
LIGHT.

AFTER THAT HIGH MOVES QUICKLY OVER AND THEN TO OUR EAST WITH SW FLOW
DEVELOPING. THAT SHOULD BRING A COUPLE OF WARM DAYS TO THE REGION
THU AND FRI BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES IN AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE THREAT FOR GUSTS TO 20 KT WILL
DIMINISH THIS MORNING. THE NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK AND BECOME
SOUTHERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF A PASSING SHOWER LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY...GREATEST AT CHO. IF PRECIP IS DOES DEVELOP AT THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS...IT IS POSSIBLE IT COULD BE A RA/SN MIX. WESTERLY WINDS
INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT AND GUST OF 20-30 KT DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

MVFR POSSIBLE AT THE TERMINALS ON TUESDAY DAY WITH A CLIPPER PASSING
THROUGH. AFTER THAT...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THU. MVFR TO
POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS MAY MOVE IN LATE IN THE WEEK IN ADVANCE OF
THE LATE WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...

OCCASIONAL NW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE
SHOULD SUBSIDE GRADUALLY TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE SCA
WILL EXPIRE FROM NW TO SE. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH THIS EVENING
AND TURNS WINDS SOUTHERLY. THESE WILL BEGIN TO CHANNEL UP THE BAY
WITH ANOTHER SCA GOING INTO EFFECT AT MIDNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS EARLY MONDAY MORNING SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST AND PERHAPS
BRINGING A SHOWER. BEHIND THE FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST UP TO
30 KT THROUGH MONDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FROM MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE WINDS CAN SUBSIDE. LATER TUE INTO TUE EVE IS
ALSO A POSSIBILITY AFTER THE CLIPPER PASSES THROUGH WITH AN INCREASE
IN WINDS TO NEAR 20KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.CLIMATE...

EARLY THIS MORNING...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH RECORD LOWS FOR
THE MARCH 29TH AT DULLES.  BWI AND DCA RECORDS SHOULD REMAIN SAFE.

SITE...3/29 RECORD MIN T
DCA......18 (1923)
BWI......18 (1923)
IAD......20 (1982)

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ530>532-
     537>540-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ533-
     534-541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ535-536.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CAS
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...CAS
AVIATION...ADS/CAS
MARINE...ADS/CAS
CLIMATE...CAS/DFH




000
FXUS61 KLWX 290757
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
357 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON
MONDAY. A REINFORCING CLIPPER LOW WILL PASS OVER THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT FOLLOWS WILL SLIDE TO OUR SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR WARM TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MS VALLEY. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. IT WILL BE A CLEAR
AND COLD START TO THE DAY...WITH ALL LOCATIONS BELOW THE 30F MARK.
THE HIGH WILL QUICKLY SLIDE TO THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY. DESPITE
LESSENING WINDS AND FULL SUN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS THERE WILL NOT BE RAPID WAA. DID SIDE WITH
WARMER GFS-BASED GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM QUICKLY APPROACHES
TONIGHT. SFC LOW AND BEST DYNAMIC LIFT WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER A STRONG LLJ WILL ACCOMPANY THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
AND BRING DECENT MOISTURE RETURN IN THE NARROW WARM SECTOR WHICH
WILL SPREAD EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT (INCREASE IN PWAT FROM AROUND 0.10
AT 00Z LAST EVENING UP TO AROUND 0.75 LATE TONIGHT). GIVEN
CONSISTENCY OF QPF RESPONSE IN MODEL GUIDANCE...FORECAST POPS HAVE
BEEN INCREASED QUITE A BIT...WITH EVERYONE AT LEAST 20 PCT NOW. THE
ORIENTATION OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WRT TO MOUNTAINS LENDS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER CHANCES EXIST FROM CENTRAL VA TO SOUTHERN MD...AND THE
GREATEST PROBS ARE IN THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL
FALL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST LIES IN P-TYPE (SHOULD ANY FALL).
WITH THE HIGH TO THE SE...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALREADY BE
ESTABLISHED...SO TEMP FALLS WILL BE RELATED TO NOCTURNAL AND WETBULB
PROCESSES (AMBIENT AIRMASS QUITE DRY). LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF 2M
TEMPS OVER MOS. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE TEMPS LEVEL OFF OR PERHAPS EVEN
SLIGHTLY RISE IN SOME SPOTS. WITH THAT SAID...THERMAL PROFILES ARE
MARGINAL FOR RAIN AND SNOW WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 30S. NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME SLEET COULD FALL OR EVEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN (MAINLY NORTHERN MD AND THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS).
HOWEVER WITHOUT A CLASSIC WARM NOSE...LIMITED TO ONLY RA/SN NOW. THE
AREAS OF MOST CONCERN FOR TEMPS ALSO HAVE LOWER CHANCE OF PRECIP.
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS COULD SEE AROUND AN
INCH OF SNOW...BUT MIXING IS EVEN POSSIBLE THERE.

THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL QUICKLY SLIDE SE BY MID
MONDAY MORNING. CAA WILL BE LIMITED AS LLVL FLOW REMAINS WESTERLY.
EFFICIENT MIXING WILL MEAN POSSIBLE GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH.
HIGHEST TERRAIN COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER...BUT APPEARS TO BE BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY BE WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAY...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S
EXCEPT IN THE HIGH TERRAIN (SIDED TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE SETTLED WEATHER BETWEEN SYSTEMS. NEXT UP IS
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SHOWN IN THE GFS AND EURO FAIRLY SIMILARLY. IT
PASSES SE THROUGH THE MID ATL ON TUESDAY DAY. LOW LVL THICKNESSES ON
BOTH ALSO SHOW ANY PRECIP BEING RAIN. GFS IS MOST BULLISH ON POPS.
WENT BETWEEN THAT AND THE LESS GENEROUS EURO. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE
LIGHT.

AFTER THAT HIGH MOVES QUICKLY OVER AND THEN TO OUR EAST WITH SW FLOW
DEVELOPING. THAT SHOULD BRING A COUPLE OF WARM DAYS TO THE REGION
THU AND FRI BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES IN AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE THREAT FOR GUSTS TO 20 KT WILL
DIMINISH THIS MORNING. THE NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK AND BECOME
SOUTHERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF A PASSING SHOWER LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY...GREATEST AT CHO. IF PRECIP IS DOES DEVELOP AT THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS...IT IS POSSIBLE IT COULD BE A RA/SN MIX. WESTERLY WINDS
INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT AND GUST OF 20-30 KT DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

MVFR POSSIBLE AT THE TERMINALS ON TUESDAY DAY WITH A CLIPPER PASSING
THROUGH. AFTER THAT...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THU. MVFR TO
POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS MAY MOVE IN LATE IN THE WEEK IN ADVANCE OF
THE LATE WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...

OCCASIONAL NW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE
SHOULD SUBSIDE GRADUALLY TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE SCA
WILL EXPIRE FROM NW TO SE. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH THIS EVENING
AND TURNS WINDS SOUTHERLY. THESE WILL BEGIN TO CHANNEL UP THE BAY
WITH ANOTHER SCA GOING INTO EFFECT AT MIDNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS EARLY MONDAY MORNING SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST AND PERHAPS
BRINGING A SHOWER. BEHIND THE FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST UP TO
30 KT THROUGH MONDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FROM MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE WINDS CAN SUBSIDE. LATER TUE INTO TUE EVE IS
ALSO A POSSIBILITY AFTER THE CLIPPER PASSES THROUGH WITH AN INCREASE
IN WINDS TO NEAR 20KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.CLIMATE...

EARLY THIS MORNING...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH RECORD LOWS FOR
THE MARCH 29TH AT DULLES.  BWI AND DCA RECORDS SHOULD REMAIN SAFE.

SITE...3/29 RECORD MIN T
DCA......18 (1923)
BWI......18 (1923)
IAD......20 (1982)

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ530>532-
     537>540-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ533-
     534-541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ535-536.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CAS
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...CAS
AVIATION...ADS/CAS
MARINE...ADS/CAS
CLIMATE...CAS/DFH



000
FXUS61 KLWX 290757
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
357 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON
MONDAY. A REINFORCING CLIPPER LOW WILL PASS OVER THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT FOLLOWS WILL SLIDE TO OUR SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR WARM TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MS VALLEY. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. IT WILL BE A CLEAR
AND COLD START TO THE DAY...WITH ALL LOCATIONS BELOW THE 30F MARK.
THE HIGH WILL QUICKLY SLIDE TO THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY. DESPITE
LESSENING WINDS AND FULL SUN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS THERE WILL NOT BE RAPID WAA. DID SIDE WITH
WARMER GFS-BASED GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM QUICKLY APPROACHES
TONIGHT. SFC LOW AND BEST DYNAMIC LIFT WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER A STRONG LLJ WILL ACCOMPANY THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
AND BRING DECENT MOISTURE RETURN IN THE NARROW WARM SECTOR WHICH
WILL SPREAD EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT (INCREASE IN PWAT FROM AROUND 0.10
AT 00Z LAST EVENING UP TO AROUND 0.75 LATE TONIGHT). GIVEN
CONSISTENCY OF QPF RESPONSE IN MODEL GUIDANCE...FORECAST POPS HAVE
BEEN INCREASED QUITE A BIT...WITH EVERYONE AT LEAST 20 PCT NOW. THE
ORIENTATION OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WRT TO MOUNTAINS LENDS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER CHANCES EXIST FROM CENTRAL VA TO SOUTHERN MD...AND THE
GREATEST PROBS ARE IN THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL
FALL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST LIES IN P-TYPE (SHOULD ANY FALL).
WITH THE HIGH TO THE SE...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALREADY BE
ESTABLISHED...SO TEMP FALLS WILL BE RELATED TO NOCTURNAL AND WETBULB
PROCESSES (AMBIENT AIRMASS QUITE DRY). LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF 2M
TEMPS OVER MOS. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE TEMPS LEVEL OFF OR PERHAPS EVEN
SLIGHTLY RISE IN SOME SPOTS. WITH THAT SAID...THERMAL PROFILES ARE
MARGINAL FOR RAIN AND SNOW WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 30S. NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME SLEET COULD FALL OR EVEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN (MAINLY NORTHERN MD AND THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS).
HOWEVER WITHOUT A CLASSIC WARM NOSE...LIMITED TO ONLY RA/SN NOW. THE
AREAS OF MOST CONCERN FOR TEMPS ALSO HAVE LOWER CHANCE OF PRECIP.
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS COULD SEE AROUND AN
INCH OF SNOW...BUT MIXING IS EVEN POSSIBLE THERE.

THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL QUICKLY SLIDE SE BY MID
MONDAY MORNING. CAA WILL BE LIMITED AS LLVL FLOW REMAINS WESTERLY.
EFFICIENT MIXING WILL MEAN POSSIBLE GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH.
HIGHEST TERRAIN COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER...BUT APPEARS TO BE BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY BE WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAY...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S
EXCEPT IN THE HIGH TERRAIN (SIDED TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE SETTLED WEATHER BETWEEN SYSTEMS. NEXT UP IS
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SHOWN IN THE GFS AND EURO FAIRLY SIMILARLY. IT
PASSES SE THROUGH THE MID ATL ON TUESDAY DAY. LOW LVL THICKNESSES ON
BOTH ALSO SHOW ANY PRECIP BEING RAIN. GFS IS MOST BULLISH ON POPS.
WENT BETWEEN THAT AND THE LESS GENEROUS EURO. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE
LIGHT.

AFTER THAT HIGH MOVES QUICKLY OVER AND THEN TO OUR EAST WITH SW FLOW
DEVELOPING. THAT SHOULD BRING A COUPLE OF WARM DAYS TO THE REGION
THU AND FRI BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES IN AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE THREAT FOR GUSTS TO 20 KT WILL
DIMINISH THIS MORNING. THE NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK AND BECOME
SOUTHERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF A PASSING SHOWER LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY...GREATEST AT CHO. IF PRECIP IS DOES DEVELOP AT THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS...IT IS POSSIBLE IT COULD BE A RA/SN MIX. WESTERLY WINDS
INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT AND GUST OF 20-30 KT DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

MVFR POSSIBLE AT THE TERMINALS ON TUESDAY DAY WITH A CLIPPER PASSING
THROUGH. AFTER THAT...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THU. MVFR TO
POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS MAY MOVE IN LATE IN THE WEEK IN ADVANCE OF
THE LATE WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...

OCCASIONAL NW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE
SHOULD SUBSIDE GRADUALLY TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE SCA
WILL EXPIRE FROM NW TO SE. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH THIS EVENING
AND TURNS WINDS SOUTHERLY. THESE WILL BEGIN TO CHANNEL UP THE BAY
WITH ANOTHER SCA GOING INTO EFFECT AT MIDNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS EARLY MONDAY MORNING SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST AND PERHAPS
BRINGING A SHOWER. BEHIND THE FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST UP TO
30 KT THROUGH MONDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FROM MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE WINDS CAN SUBSIDE. LATER TUE INTO TUE EVE IS
ALSO A POSSIBILITY AFTER THE CLIPPER PASSES THROUGH WITH AN INCREASE
IN WINDS TO NEAR 20KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.CLIMATE...

EARLY THIS MORNING...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH RECORD LOWS FOR
THE MARCH 29TH AT DULLES.  BWI AND DCA RECORDS SHOULD REMAIN SAFE.

SITE...3/29 RECORD MIN T
DCA......18 (1923)
BWI......18 (1923)
IAD......20 (1982)

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ530>532-
     537>540-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ533-
     534-541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ535-536.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CAS
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...CAS
AVIATION...ADS/CAS
MARINE...ADS/CAS
CLIMATE...CAS/DFH



000
FXUS61 KLWX 290757
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
357 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON
MONDAY. A REINFORCING CLIPPER LOW WILL PASS OVER THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT FOLLOWS WILL SLIDE TO OUR SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR WARM TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MS VALLEY. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. IT WILL BE A CLEAR
AND COLD START TO THE DAY...WITH ALL LOCATIONS BELOW THE 30F MARK.
THE HIGH WILL QUICKLY SLIDE TO THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY. DESPITE
LESSENING WINDS AND FULL SUN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS THERE WILL NOT BE RAPID WAA. DID SIDE WITH
WARMER GFS-BASED GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM QUICKLY APPROACHES
TONIGHT. SFC LOW AND BEST DYNAMIC LIFT WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER A STRONG LLJ WILL ACCOMPANY THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
AND BRING DECENT MOISTURE RETURN IN THE NARROW WARM SECTOR WHICH
WILL SPREAD EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT (INCREASE IN PWAT FROM AROUND 0.10
AT 00Z LAST EVENING UP TO AROUND 0.75 LATE TONIGHT). GIVEN
CONSISTENCY OF QPF RESPONSE IN MODEL GUIDANCE...FORECAST POPS HAVE
BEEN INCREASED QUITE A BIT...WITH EVERYONE AT LEAST 20 PCT NOW. THE
ORIENTATION OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WRT TO MOUNTAINS LENDS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER CHANCES EXIST FROM CENTRAL VA TO SOUTHERN MD...AND THE
GREATEST PROBS ARE IN THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL
FALL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST LIES IN P-TYPE (SHOULD ANY FALL).
WITH THE HIGH TO THE SE...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALREADY BE
ESTABLISHED...SO TEMP FALLS WILL BE RELATED TO NOCTURNAL AND WETBULB
PROCESSES (AMBIENT AIRMASS QUITE DRY). LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF 2M
TEMPS OVER MOS. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE TEMPS LEVEL OFF OR PERHAPS EVEN
SLIGHTLY RISE IN SOME SPOTS. WITH THAT SAID...THERMAL PROFILES ARE
MARGINAL FOR RAIN AND SNOW WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 30S. NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME SLEET COULD FALL OR EVEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN (MAINLY NORTHERN MD AND THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS).
HOWEVER WITHOUT A CLASSIC WARM NOSE...LIMITED TO ONLY RA/SN NOW. THE
AREAS OF MOST CONCERN FOR TEMPS ALSO HAVE LOWER CHANCE OF PRECIP.
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS COULD SEE AROUND AN
INCH OF SNOW...BUT MIXING IS EVEN POSSIBLE THERE.

THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL QUICKLY SLIDE SE BY MID
MONDAY MORNING. CAA WILL BE LIMITED AS LLVL FLOW REMAINS WESTERLY.
EFFICIENT MIXING WILL MEAN POSSIBLE GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH.
HIGHEST TERRAIN COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER...BUT APPEARS TO BE BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY BE WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAY...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S
EXCEPT IN THE HIGH TERRAIN (SIDED TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE SETTLED WEATHER BETWEEN SYSTEMS. NEXT UP IS
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SHOWN IN THE GFS AND EURO FAIRLY SIMILARLY. IT
PASSES SE THROUGH THE MID ATL ON TUESDAY DAY. LOW LVL THICKNESSES ON
BOTH ALSO SHOW ANY PRECIP BEING RAIN. GFS IS MOST BULLISH ON POPS.
WENT BETWEEN THAT AND THE LESS GENEROUS EURO. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE
LIGHT.

AFTER THAT HIGH MOVES QUICKLY OVER AND THEN TO OUR EAST WITH SW FLOW
DEVELOPING. THAT SHOULD BRING A COUPLE OF WARM DAYS TO THE REGION
THU AND FRI BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES IN AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE THREAT FOR GUSTS TO 20 KT WILL
DIMINISH THIS MORNING. THE NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK AND BECOME
SOUTHERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF A PASSING SHOWER LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY...GREATEST AT CHO. IF PRECIP IS DOES DEVELOP AT THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS...IT IS POSSIBLE IT COULD BE A RA/SN MIX. WESTERLY WINDS
INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT AND GUST OF 20-30 KT DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

MVFR POSSIBLE AT THE TERMINALS ON TUESDAY DAY WITH A CLIPPER PASSING
THROUGH. AFTER THAT...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THU. MVFR TO
POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS MAY MOVE IN LATE IN THE WEEK IN ADVANCE OF
THE LATE WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...

OCCASIONAL NW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE
SHOULD SUBSIDE GRADUALLY TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE SCA
WILL EXPIRE FROM NW TO SE. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH THIS EVENING
AND TURNS WINDS SOUTHERLY. THESE WILL BEGIN TO CHANNEL UP THE BAY
WITH ANOTHER SCA GOING INTO EFFECT AT MIDNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS EARLY MONDAY MORNING SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST AND PERHAPS
BRINGING A SHOWER. BEHIND THE FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST UP TO
30 KT THROUGH MONDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FROM MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE WINDS CAN SUBSIDE. LATER TUE INTO TUE EVE IS
ALSO A POSSIBILITY AFTER THE CLIPPER PASSES THROUGH WITH AN INCREASE
IN WINDS TO NEAR 20KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.CLIMATE...

EARLY THIS MORNING...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH RECORD LOWS FOR
THE MARCH 29TH AT DULLES.  BWI AND DCA RECORDS SHOULD REMAIN SAFE.

SITE...3/29 RECORD MIN T
DCA......18 (1923)
BWI......18 (1923)
IAD......20 (1982)

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ530>532-
     537>540-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ533-
     534-541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ535-536.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CAS
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...CAS
AVIATION...ADS/CAS
MARINE...ADS/CAS
CLIMATE...CAS/DFH



000
FXUS61 KLWX 290757
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
357 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON
MONDAY. A REINFORCING CLIPPER LOW WILL PASS OVER THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT FOLLOWS WILL SLIDE TO OUR SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR WARM TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MS VALLEY. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. IT WILL BE A CLEAR
AND COLD START TO THE DAY...WITH ALL LOCATIONS BELOW THE 30F MARK.
THE HIGH WILL QUICKLY SLIDE TO THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY. DESPITE
LESSENING WINDS AND FULL SUN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS THERE WILL NOT BE RAPID WAA. DID SIDE WITH
WARMER GFS-BASED GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM QUICKLY APPROACHES
TONIGHT. SFC LOW AND BEST DYNAMIC LIFT WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER A STRONG LLJ WILL ACCOMPANY THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
AND BRING DECENT MOISTURE RETURN IN THE NARROW WARM SECTOR WHICH
WILL SPREAD EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT (INCREASE IN PWAT FROM AROUND 0.10
AT 00Z LAST EVENING UP TO AROUND 0.75 LATE TONIGHT). GIVEN
CONSISTENCY OF QPF RESPONSE IN MODEL GUIDANCE...FORECAST POPS HAVE
BEEN INCREASED QUITE A BIT...WITH EVERYONE AT LEAST 20 PCT NOW. THE
ORIENTATION OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WRT TO MOUNTAINS LENDS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER CHANCES EXIST FROM CENTRAL VA TO SOUTHERN MD...AND THE
GREATEST PROBS ARE IN THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL
FALL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST LIES IN P-TYPE (SHOULD ANY FALL).
WITH THE HIGH TO THE SE...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALREADY BE
ESTABLISHED...SO TEMP FALLS WILL BE RELATED TO NOCTURNAL AND WETBULB
PROCESSES (AMBIENT AIRMASS QUITE DRY). LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF 2M
TEMPS OVER MOS. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE TEMPS LEVEL OFF OR PERHAPS EVEN
SLIGHTLY RISE IN SOME SPOTS. WITH THAT SAID...THERMAL PROFILES ARE
MARGINAL FOR RAIN AND SNOW WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 30S. NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME SLEET COULD FALL OR EVEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN (MAINLY NORTHERN MD AND THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS).
HOWEVER WITHOUT A CLASSIC WARM NOSE...LIMITED TO ONLY RA/SN NOW. THE
AREAS OF MOST CONCERN FOR TEMPS ALSO HAVE LOWER CHANCE OF PRECIP.
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS COULD SEE AROUND AN
INCH OF SNOW...BUT MIXING IS EVEN POSSIBLE THERE.

THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL QUICKLY SLIDE SE BY MID
MONDAY MORNING. CAA WILL BE LIMITED AS LLVL FLOW REMAINS WESTERLY.
EFFICIENT MIXING WILL MEAN POSSIBLE GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH.
HIGHEST TERRAIN COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER...BUT APPEARS TO BE BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY BE WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAY...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S
EXCEPT IN THE HIGH TERRAIN (SIDED TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE SETTLED WEATHER BETWEEN SYSTEMS. NEXT UP IS
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SHOWN IN THE GFS AND EURO FAIRLY SIMILARLY. IT
PASSES SE THROUGH THE MID ATL ON TUESDAY DAY. LOW LVL THICKNESSES ON
BOTH ALSO SHOW ANY PRECIP BEING RAIN. GFS IS MOST BULLISH ON POPS.
WENT BETWEEN THAT AND THE LESS GENEROUS EURO. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE
LIGHT.

AFTER THAT HIGH MOVES QUICKLY OVER AND THEN TO OUR EAST WITH SW FLOW
DEVELOPING. THAT SHOULD BRING A COUPLE OF WARM DAYS TO THE REGION
THU AND FRI BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES IN AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE THREAT FOR GUSTS TO 20 KT WILL
DIMINISH THIS MORNING. THE NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK AND BECOME
SOUTHERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF A PASSING SHOWER LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY...GREATEST AT CHO. IF PRECIP IS DOES DEVELOP AT THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS...IT IS POSSIBLE IT COULD BE A RA/SN MIX. WESTERLY WINDS
INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT AND GUST OF 20-30 KT DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

MVFR POSSIBLE AT THE TERMINALS ON TUESDAY DAY WITH A CLIPPER PASSING
THROUGH. AFTER THAT...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THU. MVFR TO
POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS MAY MOVE IN LATE IN THE WEEK IN ADVANCE OF
THE LATE WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...

OCCASIONAL NW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE
SHOULD SUBSIDE GRADUALLY TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE SCA
WILL EXPIRE FROM NW TO SE. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH THIS EVENING
AND TURNS WINDS SOUTHERLY. THESE WILL BEGIN TO CHANNEL UP THE BAY
WITH ANOTHER SCA GOING INTO EFFECT AT MIDNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS EARLY MONDAY MORNING SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST AND PERHAPS
BRINGING A SHOWER. BEHIND THE FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST UP TO
30 KT THROUGH MONDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FROM MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE WINDS CAN SUBSIDE. LATER TUE INTO TUE EVE IS
ALSO A POSSIBILITY AFTER THE CLIPPER PASSES THROUGH WITH AN INCREASE
IN WINDS TO NEAR 20KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.CLIMATE...

EARLY THIS MORNING...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH RECORD LOWS FOR
THE MARCH 29TH AT DULLES.  BWI AND DCA RECORDS SHOULD REMAIN SAFE.

SITE...3/29 RECORD MIN T
DCA......18 (1923)
BWI......18 (1923)
IAD......20 (1982)

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ530>532-
     537>540-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ533-
     534-541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ535-536.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CAS
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...CAS
AVIATION...ADS/CAS
MARINE...ADS/CAS
CLIMATE...CAS/DFH



000
FXUS61 KRNK 290540
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
140 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT BEFORE SLIDING TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ON SUNDAY WILL MOVE EAST AND
CROSS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FINALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 855 PM EDT SATURDAY...

MAIN UPDATE TO ADJUST LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT GIVEN AN ARID PWAT OF
.07 OFF THE EVENING RNK SOUNDING AND VERY LOW DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY DAYBREAK. THIS
RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW JUST ENOUGH DECOUPLING ESPCLY VALLEYS UNDER
CLEAR SKIES TO SEND MOST LOWS INTO THE TEENS WEST WITH A FEW
SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE. BREEZE MAY STAY UP JUST LONG ENOUGH TO
KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT IN THE EAST BUT STILL UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S PIEDMONT. THUS CUTTING LOWS A CAT OR TWO IN THE WESTERN
VALLEYS AND A FEW DEGREES IN SPOTS OVER THE EAST. OTHERWISE ONLY
SMALL CHANGES TO REDUCE WINDS A BIT MORE LATER TONIGHT ESPCLY
UNDER THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AROUND DAYBREAK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 240 PM EDT SATURDAY...

1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BUILD SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. PATCHY LOW STRATO CU WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET.

UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...WINDS WILL DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT AND WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS...THE DRY AIR MASS WILL
RESULT IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. RECORD
LOWS TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING IN
LYNCHBURG...BLACKSBURG...DANVILLE...LEWISBURG AND BLUEFIELD.
(CLIMATE SECTION LISTED FOR REFERENCE AND ALSO NOTE THAT THE FROST
AND FREEZE PROGRAM HAS NOT BEGUN FOR OUR FORECAST AREA.)

AS THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS SOUTHEAST...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL LIMIT HEATING.
PLAYED HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO COOLER ADJMET VALUES FROM THE
THE LOWER 40S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM EDT SATURDAY...

EXPECT A FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY WITH MAINLY A THREAT OF SHOWERS. SOME COLDER AIR WILL
SNEAK IN ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS AND COULD PRODUCE SNOW...BUT NOTHING
OF SIGNIFICANCE.

ONCE THIS FRONT PASSES THE FLOW ALOFT STAYS A GENERAL WNW PATTERN.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ARRIVES BY TUESDAY ALTHOUGH MAIN MOISTURE WILL
STAY NORTH OF US. EXPECT MODERATING TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD WITH
LOWS AND HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...

MODELS VARY IN TERMS OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING TOWARD OUR
AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. BOTH 00Z/12Z ECMWF SHOW MORE
AMPLIFICATION WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF TX
WEDNESDAY WHICH IN A SPLIT FLOW APPEARS TO TAKE ON MORE NEGATIVE
TILT HEADING INTO THURSDAY OVER THE TN VALLEY. HPC APPEARS TO BE
LEANING TOWARD A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS/ENSEMBLE APPROACH. THIS
WILL DICTATE WHEN RAIN MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA.

BEFORE THIS SYSTEM...SFC HIGH SHOULD WEDGE SWD BRIEFLY WEDNESDAY
WITH SEASONABLY MILD DAY ON TAP. THIS HIGH DEPARTS THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST THURSDAY MORNING...WITH SURGE OF MOISTURE PUSHING NWD ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE PER SE FLOW. AT THIS TIME...THINK WILL SEE DRIER AIR
WITH LIMITED THREAT OF RAIN WED NIGHT BUT EXPECT AIRMASS TO MOISTEN
MORE INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH MAIN LIFT STAYING WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS. STILL LOOKING AT THE CHANCE OF RAIN FROM ALONG AND WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH POSSIBLY EWD EXTENT INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA
PER FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC EARLY ON BEFORE VEERING WINDS TURN MORE SW.

HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE MILD BUT COULD BE COOLER PER MORE CLOUDS AND
RAIN CHANCES. IF THE HIGH SLOWS DOWN OR SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH...THUS
ALLOWING LONGER EASTERLY FETCH...THEN TEMPS COULD BE 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER OUT EAST....BUT STILL JUST NEAR NORMAL.

AS WE HEAD INTO THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY THE FORECAST VARIES...THOUGH
THE NEW 12Z ECMWF SHOWS SIMILAR SETUP THAT THE 12Z GFS DOES WITH
FRONT ORIENTATION SETTING UP IN AN EAST-WEST FASHION WITH PARALLEL
FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS GOING TO KEEP THE AREA IN A UNSETTLED PATTERN
WITH NEXT MAIN LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY ARRIVING OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE
DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS IS THAT THE ECMWF SHOWS A STRONGER LOW
MOVING MORE NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE GFS HAS WEAKER
LOW MOVING ACROSS WV INTO NRN VA. THE ECMWF SOLUTION AS SUCH HAS
LESS QPF THAN THE GFS. NONETHELESS THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE COLD
THOUGH THE ECWMF IS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED AND COLDER THAN THE GFS.
COULD SEE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MTNS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM EDT SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH
THE REGION FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING THEN
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY HAVE GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY. HIGH

HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MAINLY AFTER 00Z/8PM. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE IN
THE MOUNTAINS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.

THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY AS ANOTHER CLIPPER SLIDES ACROSS FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY LINGERING MOUNTAIN UPSLOPE DRIVEN MVFR
CIGS ON TUESDAY.

MOISTURE WILL AGAIN INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 455 AM EDT FRIDAY...

RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 29:

ROANOKE......19 IN 1982
BLACKSBURG...17 IN 2001
LYNCHBURG....23 IN 1923 AND 1982
DANVILLE.....23 IN 1966
BLUEFIELD....19 IN 1966 AND 1982
LEWISBURG....18 IN 1983

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...JH/KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS
CLIMATE...AMS/SK




000
FXUS61 KRNK 290540
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
140 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT BEFORE SLIDING TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ON SUNDAY WILL MOVE EAST AND
CROSS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FINALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 855 PM EDT SATURDAY...

MAIN UPDATE TO ADJUST LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT GIVEN AN ARID PWAT OF
.07 OFF THE EVENING RNK SOUNDING AND VERY LOW DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY DAYBREAK. THIS
RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW JUST ENOUGH DECOUPLING ESPCLY VALLEYS UNDER
CLEAR SKIES TO SEND MOST LOWS INTO THE TEENS WEST WITH A FEW
SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE. BREEZE MAY STAY UP JUST LONG ENOUGH TO
KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT IN THE EAST BUT STILL UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S PIEDMONT. THUS CUTTING LOWS A CAT OR TWO IN THE WESTERN
VALLEYS AND A FEW DEGREES IN SPOTS OVER THE EAST. OTHERWISE ONLY
SMALL CHANGES TO REDUCE WINDS A BIT MORE LATER TONIGHT ESPCLY
UNDER THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AROUND DAYBREAK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 240 PM EDT SATURDAY...

1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BUILD SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. PATCHY LOW STRATO CU WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET.

UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...WINDS WILL DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT AND WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS...THE DRY AIR MASS WILL
RESULT IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. RECORD
LOWS TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING IN
LYNCHBURG...BLACKSBURG...DANVILLE...LEWISBURG AND BLUEFIELD.
(CLIMATE SECTION LISTED FOR REFERENCE AND ALSO NOTE THAT THE FROST
AND FREEZE PROGRAM HAS NOT BEGUN FOR OUR FORECAST AREA.)

AS THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS SOUTHEAST...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL LIMIT HEATING.
PLAYED HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO COOLER ADJMET VALUES FROM THE
THE LOWER 40S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM EDT SATURDAY...

EXPECT A FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY WITH MAINLY A THREAT OF SHOWERS. SOME COLDER AIR WILL
SNEAK IN ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS AND COULD PRODUCE SNOW...BUT NOTHING
OF SIGNIFICANCE.

ONCE THIS FRONT PASSES THE FLOW ALOFT STAYS A GENERAL WNW PATTERN.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ARRIVES BY TUESDAY ALTHOUGH MAIN MOISTURE WILL
STAY NORTH OF US. EXPECT MODERATING TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD WITH
LOWS AND HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...

MODELS VARY IN TERMS OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING TOWARD OUR
AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. BOTH 00Z/12Z ECMWF SHOW MORE
AMPLIFICATION WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF TX
WEDNESDAY WHICH IN A SPLIT FLOW APPEARS TO TAKE ON MORE NEGATIVE
TILT HEADING INTO THURSDAY OVER THE TN VALLEY. HPC APPEARS TO BE
LEANING TOWARD A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS/ENSEMBLE APPROACH. THIS
WILL DICTATE WHEN RAIN MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA.

BEFORE THIS SYSTEM...SFC HIGH SHOULD WEDGE SWD BRIEFLY WEDNESDAY
WITH SEASONABLY MILD DAY ON TAP. THIS HIGH DEPARTS THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST THURSDAY MORNING...WITH SURGE OF MOISTURE PUSHING NWD ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE PER SE FLOW. AT THIS TIME...THINK WILL SEE DRIER AIR
WITH LIMITED THREAT OF RAIN WED NIGHT BUT EXPECT AIRMASS TO MOISTEN
MORE INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH MAIN LIFT STAYING WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS. STILL LOOKING AT THE CHANCE OF RAIN FROM ALONG AND WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH POSSIBLY EWD EXTENT INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA
PER FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC EARLY ON BEFORE VEERING WINDS TURN MORE SW.

HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE MILD BUT COULD BE COOLER PER MORE CLOUDS AND
RAIN CHANCES. IF THE HIGH SLOWS DOWN OR SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH...THUS
ALLOWING LONGER EASTERLY FETCH...THEN TEMPS COULD BE 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER OUT EAST....BUT STILL JUST NEAR NORMAL.

AS WE HEAD INTO THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY THE FORECAST VARIES...THOUGH
THE NEW 12Z ECMWF SHOWS SIMILAR SETUP THAT THE 12Z GFS DOES WITH
FRONT ORIENTATION SETTING UP IN AN EAST-WEST FASHION WITH PARALLEL
FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS GOING TO KEEP THE AREA IN A UNSETTLED PATTERN
WITH NEXT MAIN LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY ARRIVING OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE
DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS IS THAT THE ECMWF SHOWS A STRONGER LOW
MOVING MORE NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE GFS HAS WEAKER
LOW MOVING ACROSS WV INTO NRN VA. THE ECMWF SOLUTION AS SUCH HAS
LESS QPF THAN THE GFS. NONETHELESS THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE COLD
THOUGH THE ECWMF IS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED AND COLDER THAN THE GFS.
COULD SEE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MTNS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM EDT SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH
THE REGION FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING THEN
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY HAVE GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY. HIGH

HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MAINLY AFTER 00Z/8PM. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE IN
THE MOUNTAINS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.

THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY AS ANOTHER CLIPPER SLIDES ACROSS FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY LINGERING MOUNTAIN UPSLOPE DRIVEN MVFR
CIGS ON TUESDAY.

MOISTURE WILL AGAIN INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 455 AM EDT FRIDAY...

RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 29:

ROANOKE......19 IN 1982
BLACKSBURG...17 IN 2001
LYNCHBURG....23 IN 1923 AND 1982
DANVILLE.....23 IN 1966
BLUEFIELD....19 IN 1966 AND 1982
LEWISBURG....18 IN 1983

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...JH/KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS
CLIMATE...AMS/SK



000
FXUS61 KRNK 290540
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
140 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT BEFORE SLIDING TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ON SUNDAY WILL MOVE EAST AND
CROSS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FINALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 855 PM EDT SATURDAY...

MAIN UPDATE TO ADJUST LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT GIVEN AN ARID PWAT OF
.07 OFF THE EVENING RNK SOUNDING AND VERY LOW DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY DAYBREAK. THIS
RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW JUST ENOUGH DECOUPLING ESPCLY VALLEYS UNDER
CLEAR SKIES TO SEND MOST LOWS INTO THE TEENS WEST WITH A FEW
SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE. BREEZE MAY STAY UP JUST LONG ENOUGH TO
KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT IN THE EAST BUT STILL UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S PIEDMONT. THUS CUTTING LOWS A CAT OR TWO IN THE WESTERN
VALLEYS AND A FEW DEGREES IN SPOTS OVER THE EAST. OTHERWISE ONLY
SMALL CHANGES TO REDUCE WINDS A BIT MORE LATER TONIGHT ESPCLY
UNDER THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AROUND DAYBREAK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 240 PM EDT SATURDAY...

1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BUILD SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. PATCHY LOW STRATO CU WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET.

UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...WINDS WILL DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT AND WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS...THE DRY AIR MASS WILL
RESULT IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. RECORD
LOWS TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING IN
LYNCHBURG...BLACKSBURG...DANVILLE...LEWISBURG AND BLUEFIELD.
(CLIMATE SECTION LISTED FOR REFERENCE AND ALSO NOTE THAT THE FROST
AND FREEZE PROGRAM HAS NOT BEGUN FOR OUR FORECAST AREA.)

AS THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS SOUTHEAST...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL LIMIT HEATING.
PLAYED HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO COOLER ADJMET VALUES FROM THE
THE LOWER 40S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM EDT SATURDAY...

EXPECT A FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY WITH MAINLY A THREAT OF SHOWERS. SOME COLDER AIR WILL
SNEAK IN ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS AND COULD PRODUCE SNOW...BUT NOTHING
OF SIGNIFICANCE.

ONCE THIS FRONT PASSES THE FLOW ALOFT STAYS A GENERAL WNW PATTERN.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ARRIVES BY TUESDAY ALTHOUGH MAIN MOISTURE WILL
STAY NORTH OF US. EXPECT MODERATING TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD WITH
LOWS AND HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...

MODELS VARY IN TERMS OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING TOWARD OUR
AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. BOTH 00Z/12Z ECMWF SHOW MORE
AMPLIFICATION WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF TX
WEDNESDAY WHICH IN A SPLIT FLOW APPEARS TO TAKE ON MORE NEGATIVE
TILT HEADING INTO THURSDAY OVER THE TN VALLEY. HPC APPEARS TO BE
LEANING TOWARD A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS/ENSEMBLE APPROACH. THIS
WILL DICTATE WHEN RAIN MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA.

BEFORE THIS SYSTEM...SFC HIGH SHOULD WEDGE SWD BRIEFLY WEDNESDAY
WITH SEASONABLY MILD DAY ON TAP. THIS HIGH DEPARTS THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST THURSDAY MORNING...WITH SURGE OF MOISTURE PUSHING NWD ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE PER SE FLOW. AT THIS TIME...THINK WILL SEE DRIER AIR
WITH LIMITED THREAT OF RAIN WED NIGHT BUT EXPECT AIRMASS TO MOISTEN
MORE INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH MAIN LIFT STAYING WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS. STILL LOOKING AT THE CHANCE OF RAIN FROM ALONG AND WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH POSSIBLY EWD EXTENT INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA
PER FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC EARLY ON BEFORE VEERING WINDS TURN MORE SW.

HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE MILD BUT COULD BE COOLER PER MORE CLOUDS AND
RAIN CHANCES. IF THE HIGH SLOWS DOWN OR SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH...THUS
ALLOWING LONGER EASTERLY FETCH...THEN TEMPS COULD BE 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER OUT EAST....BUT STILL JUST NEAR NORMAL.

AS WE HEAD INTO THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY THE FORECAST VARIES...THOUGH
THE NEW 12Z ECMWF SHOWS SIMILAR SETUP THAT THE 12Z GFS DOES WITH
FRONT ORIENTATION SETTING UP IN AN EAST-WEST FASHION WITH PARALLEL
FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS GOING TO KEEP THE AREA IN A UNSETTLED PATTERN
WITH NEXT MAIN LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY ARRIVING OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE
DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS IS THAT THE ECMWF SHOWS A STRONGER LOW
MOVING MORE NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE GFS HAS WEAKER
LOW MOVING ACROSS WV INTO NRN VA. THE ECMWF SOLUTION AS SUCH HAS
LESS QPF THAN THE GFS. NONETHELESS THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE COLD
THOUGH THE ECWMF IS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED AND COLDER THAN THE GFS.
COULD SEE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MTNS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM EDT SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH
THE REGION FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING THEN
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY HAVE GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY. HIGH

HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MAINLY AFTER 00Z/8PM. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE IN
THE MOUNTAINS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.

THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY AS ANOTHER CLIPPER SLIDES ACROSS FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY LINGERING MOUNTAIN UPSLOPE DRIVEN MVFR
CIGS ON TUESDAY.

MOISTURE WILL AGAIN INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 455 AM EDT FRIDAY...

RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 29:

ROANOKE......19 IN 1982
BLACKSBURG...17 IN 2001
LYNCHBURG....23 IN 1923 AND 1982
DANVILLE.....23 IN 1966
BLUEFIELD....19 IN 1966 AND 1982
LEWISBURG....18 IN 1983

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...JH/KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS
CLIMATE...AMS/SK



000
FXUS61 KRNK 290540
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
140 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT BEFORE SLIDING TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ON SUNDAY WILL MOVE EAST AND
CROSS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FINALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 855 PM EDT SATURDAY...

MAIN UPDATE TO ADJUST LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT GIVEN AN ARID PWAT OF
.07 OFF THE EVENING RNK SOUNDING AND VERY LOW DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY DAYBREAK. THIS
RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW JUST ENOUGH DECOUPLING ESPCLY VALLEYS UNDER
CLEAR SKIES TO SEND MOST LOWS INTO THE TEENS WEST WITH A FEW
SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE. BREEZE MAY STAY UP JUST LONG ENOUGH TO
KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT IN THE EAST BUT STILL UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S PIEDMONT. THUS CUTTING LOWS A CAT OR TWO IN THE WESTERN
VALLEYS AND A FEW DEGREES IN SPOTS OVER THE EAST. OTHERWISE ONLY
SMALL CHANGES TO REDUCE WINDS A BIT MORE LATER TONIGHT ESPCLY
UNDER THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AROUND DAYBREAK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 240 PM EDT SATURDAY...

1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BUILD SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. PATCHY LOW STRATO CU WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET.

UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...WINDS WILL DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT AND WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS...THE DRY AIR MASS WILL
RESULT IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. RECORD
LOWS TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING IN
LYNCHBURG...BLACKSBURG...DANVILLE...LEWISBURG AND BLUEFIELD.
(CLIMATE SECTION LISTED FOR REFERENCE AND ALSO NOTE THAT THE FROST
AND FREEZE PROGRAM HAS NOT BEGUN FOR OUR FORECAST AREA.)

AS THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS SOUTHEAST...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL LIMIT HEATING.
PLAYED HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO COOLER ADJMET VALUES FROM THE
THE LOWER 40S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM EDT SATURDAY...

EXPECT A FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY WITH MAINLY A THREAT OF SHOWERS. SOME COLDER AIR WILL
SNEAK IN ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS AND COULD PRODUCE SNOW...BUT NOTHING
OF SIGNIFICANCE.

ONCE THIS FRONT PASSES THE FLOW ALOFT STAYS A GENERAL WNW PATTERN.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ARRIVES BY TUESDAY ALTHOUGH MAIN MOISTURE WILL
STAY NORTH OF US. EXPECT MODERATING TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD WITH
LOWS AND HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...

MODELS VARY IN TERMS OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING TOWARD OUR
AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. BOTH 00Z/12Z ECMWF SHOW MORE
AMPLIFICATION WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF TX
WEDNESDAY WHICH IN A SPLIT FLOW APPEARS TO TAKE ON MORE NEGATIVE
TILT HEADING INTO THURSDAY OVER THE TN VALLEY. HPC APPEARS TO BE
LEANING TOWARD A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS/ENSEMBLE APPROACH. THIS
WILL DICTATE WHEN RAIN MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA.

BEFORE THIS SYSTEM...SFC HIGH SHOULD WEDGE SWD BRIEFLY WEDNESDAY
WITH SEASONABLY MILD DAY ON TAP. THIS HIGH DEPARTS THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST THURSDAY MORNING...WITH SURGE OF MOISTURE PUSHING NWD ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE PER SE FLOW. AT THIS TIME...THINK WILL SEE DRIER AIR
WITH LIMITED THREAT OF RAIN WED NIGHT BUT EXPECT AIRMASS TO MOISTEN
MORE INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH MAIN LIFT STAYING WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS. STILL LOOKING AT THE CHANCE OF RAIN FROM ALONG AND WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH POSSIBLY EWD EXTENT INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA
PER FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC EARLY ON BEFORE VEERING WINDS TURN MORE SW.

HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE MILD BUT COULD BE COOLER PER MORE CLOUDS AND
RAIN CHANCES. IF THE HIGH SLOWS DOWN OR SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH...THUS
ALLOWING LONGER EASTERLY FETCH...THEN TEMPS COULD BE 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER OUT EAST....BUT STILL JUST NEAR NORMAL.

AS WE HEAD INTO THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY THE FORECAST VARIES...THOUGH
THE NEW 12Z ECMWF SHOWS SIMILAR SETUP THAT THE 12Z GFS DOES WITH
FRONT ORIENTATION SETTING UP IN AN EAST-WEST FASHION WITH PARALLEL
FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS GOING TO KEEP THE AREA IN A UNSETTLED PATTERN
WITH NEXT MAIN LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY ARRIVING OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE
DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS IS THAT THE ECMWF SHOWS A STRONGER LOW
MOVING MORE NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE GFS HAS WEAKER
LOW MOVING ACROSS WV INTO NRN VA. THE ECMWF SOLUTION AS SUCH HAS
LESS QPF THAN THE GFS. NONETHELESS THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE COLD
THOUGH THE ECWMF IS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED AND COLDER THAN THE GFS.
COULD SEE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MTNS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM EDT SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH
THE REGION FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING THEN
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY HAVE GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY. HIGH

HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MAINLY AFTER 00Z/8PM. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE IN
THE MOUNTAINS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.

THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY AS ANOTHER CLIPPER SLIDES ACROSS FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY LINGERING MOUNTAIN UPSLOPE DRIVEN MVFR
CIGS ON TUESDAY.

MOISTURE WILL AGAIN INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 455 AM EDT FRIDAY...

RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 29:

ROANOKE......19 IN 1982
BLACKSBURG...17 IN 2001
LYNCHBURG....23 IN 1923 AND 1982
DANVILLE.....23 IN 1966
BLUEFIELD....19 IN 1966 AND 1982
LEWISBURG....18 IN 1983

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...JH/KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS
CLIMATE...AMS/SK




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290538
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
138 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SETTLES OVER
THE AREA SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LAST OF THE S/W ENERGY (IN THE FORM OF A SCT-BKN AC DECK) WILL
CROSS THE CHES BAY / ERN SHORE AREAS NEXT FEW HRS. KEPT IT DRY
GIVEN DP TMPS DROPPING THRU THE TEENS...BUT A STRAY FLURRY STILL
PSBL ACROSS THE ERN SHORE NEXT HR OR SO. OTW...SKIES CLEAR AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. JANUARY LIKE READINGS BY MORNING
AS WINDS DECOUPLE WEST OF THE BAY ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADITIONAL
COOLING. LOWS IN THE L-M20S...XCPT U20S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS
OF SE VA/NE NC. THESE READINGS XPCTD TO FALL JUST SHORT OF THE
RECORD LOWS FOR 3/29. SEE CLI SECTION BLO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY...SUNNY...AND COOL CONDITIONS WITH A LIGHT NW
WIND BECOMING SW BY AFTERNOON. LIMITED MIXING WILL ONLY ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE
LOW 50S OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC. HAVE DROPPED HIGH BY A DEGREE OR
TWO BASED ON THE GUIDANCE...BUT EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE
WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLY PUSHING IN FROM THE NW LATE IN THE
DAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSS THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN. WITH THE LOW-
LEVEL AIRMASS STARTING OUT SO FRY AND RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
LIMITED...SO THERE IS ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY FOR -SHRA (~20-30%)
WITH RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS. MANY AREAS WILL
LIKELY ONLY SEE A TRACE OF THAT MUCH. THE BOUNDARY DROPS S OF THE
REGION EARLY MONDAY WITH DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW DEVELOPING MONDAY.
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EARLY SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY BY AFTERNOON. IMPROVED MIXING AND MORE SUN WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 60S E...TO MID/UPPER 60S
W. THIS WILL BE AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
DIRECTLY ACROSS THE REGION. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY MOST OF
THE DAY WITH HIGHS REMAINING NEAR 60 OVER EASTERN SHORE AND ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BETTER AGREEMENT IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO HANDLING
SPLIT FLOW COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO. TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED...GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS NOW WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE DROPPING INTO THE NRN MID-
ATLANTIC REGION LATE TUES NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PROGGED TO TRACK
ACROSS NRN VA/MD TUES NIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY WEDS MORNING. BEST MOISTURE/LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA...BUT WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE NE ZONES LATE TUES NIGHT CLOSEST TO BEST
MOISTURE/LIFT. SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT PUSH WELL OFFSHORE WEDS AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE REGION. MODEST CAA AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL RESULT IN TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND AND MID-UPPER
50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE WEDS
NIGHT-THURS AS A SRN STREAM WAVE LIFTS FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE
TN VALLEY. MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED THANKS TO INCREASING S-SE FLOW.
28/12Z ECMWF QUICKER WITH BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE REGION THURS
AFTERNOON. HAVE DROPPED POPS THURS AFTERNOON...BUT KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SSW FLOW WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPS
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 INLAND TO LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS
THURS. EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE THURS AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...CHANCE FOR PRECIP RAMP UP THURS NIGHT-FRI AS THE SRN
STREAM WAVE LIFTS OVER THE REGION. NRN STREAM WAVE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST ALSO PROGGED TO FLATTEN AND TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE THURS-THURS NIGHT. ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED SFC LOW LOCATES
OVER SERN CANADA THURS NIGHT-FRI MORNING...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE FRI-SAT TIMEFRAME. SPATIAL AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST...BUT WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS THRU SAT
MORNING. SLIGHT WARMER FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND
LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. DEEP UPPER
TROUGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION LATER TODAY. NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE WINDS ONCE
AGAIN DURING THE DAY TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT
AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. THERE WILL BE
SLGT TO LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNS
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW PRESSURE LIFTING WELL OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
MIDWEST. ONGOING CAA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG NW WINDS OF 15-25
KT OVER THE WATER. WAVES AVG 2-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. SCA CONDITIONS
PERSIST THRU THE NIGHT THANKS TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CAA.
WAVES REMAIN 2-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SW OF THE
WATER EARLY SUN...WITH NW WINDS DIMINISHING AOB 15 KT BY MID
MORNING. SEAS SUBSIDE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH OF THE WATER SUN AFTERNOON...WITH FLOW BECOMING SLY AOB 10
KT LATE SUN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MON
NIGHT...CROSSING THE WATER LATE MON-EARLY MON NIGHT. PREFRONTAL
SLY SURGE EXPECTED SUN NIGHT...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15 KT IN
THE BAY AND 20 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. MODELS INDICATE SCA
CONDITIONS...BUT BASED ON WAA AND COLD WATER...EXPECT A SHARP LOW
LEVEL INVERSION TO PREVENT STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE
WATER. HAVE CAPPED SPEEDS BELOW SCA ATTM. SLY FETCH MAY PUSH SEAS
TO 5 FT IN THE NRN COASTAL WATERS MON MORNING. SWLY FLOW RETURNS
MON NIGHT- TUES. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION LATE TUES WITH ANOTHER FRONT CROSSING THE WATER EARLY WEDS
NIGHT. WINDS STAY AOB 15 KT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDS-THURS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY 3/29:

RIC...22/1923
ORF...25/1982
SBY...18/1923
ECG...24/1982

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAO
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...AJZ/JAO
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS/DAP/LSA
MARINE...SAM
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290538
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
138 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SETTLES OVER
THE AREA SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LAST OF THE S/W ENERGY (IN THE FORM OF A SCT-BKN AC DECK) WILL
CROSS THE CHES BAY / ERN SHORE AREAS NEXT FEW HRS. KEPT IT DRY
GIVEN DP TMPS DROPPING THRU THE TEENS...BUT A STRAY FLURRY STILL
PSBL ACROSS THE ERN SHORE NEXT HR OR SO. OTW...SKIES CLEAR AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. JANUARY LIKE READINGS BY MORNING
AS WINDS DECOUPLE WEST OF THE BAY ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADITIONAL
COOLING. LOWS IN THE L-M20S...XCPT U20S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS
OF SE VA/NE NC. THESE READINGS XPCTD TO FALL JUST SHORT OF THE
RECORD LOWS FOR 3/29. SEE CLI SECTION BLO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY...SUNNY...AND COOL CONDITIONS WITH A LIGHT NW
WIND BECOMING SW BY AFTERNOON. LIMITED MIXING WILL ONLY ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE
LOW 50S OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC. HAVE DROPPED HIGH BY A DEGREE OR
TWO BASED ON THE GUIDANCE...BUT EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE
WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLY PUSHING IN FROM THE NW LATE IN THE
DAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSS THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN. WITH THE LOW-
LEVEL AIRMASS STARTING OUT SO FRY AND RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
LIMITED...SO THERE IS ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY FOR -SHRA (~20-30%)
WITH RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS. MANY AREAS WILL
LIKELY ONLY SEE A TRACE OF THAT MUCH. THE BOUNDARY DROPS S OF THE
REGION EARLY MONDAY WITH DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW DEVELOPING MONDAY.
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EARLY SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY BY AFTERNOON. IMPROVED MIXING AND MORE SUN WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 60S E...TO MID/UPPER 60S
W. THIS WILL BE AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
DIRECTLY ACROSS THE REGION. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY MOST OF
THE DAY WITH HIGHS REMAINING NEAR 60 OVER EASTERN SHORE AND ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BETTER AGREEMENT IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO HANDLING
SPLIT FLOW COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO. TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED...GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS NOW WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE DROPPING INTO THE NRN MID-
ATLANTIC REGION LATE TUES NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PROGGED TO TRACK
ACROSS NRN VA/MD TUES NIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY WEDS MORNING. BEST MOISTURE/LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA...BUT WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE NE ZONES LATE TUES NIGHT CLOSEST TO BEST
MOISTURE/LIFT. SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT PUSH WELL OFFSHORE WEDS AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE REGION. MODEST CAA AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL RESULT IN TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND AND MID-UPPER
50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE WEDS
NIGHT-THURS AS A SRN STREAM WAVE LIFTS FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE
TN VALLEY. MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED THANKS TO INCREASING S-SE FLOW.
28/12Z ECMWF QUICKER WITH BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE REGION THURS
AFTERNOON. HAVE DROPPED POPS THURS AFTERNOON...BUT KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SSW FLOW WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPS
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 INLAND TO LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS
THURS. EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE THURS AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...CHANCE FOR PRECIP RAMP UP THURS NIGHT-FRI AS THE SRN
STREAM WAVE LIFTS OVER THE REGION. NRN STREAM WAVE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST ALSO PROGGED TO FLATTEN AND TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE THURS-THURS NIGHT. ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED SFC LOW LOCATES
OVER SERN CANADA THURS NIGHT-FRI MORNING...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE FRI-SAT TIMEFRAME. SPATIAL AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST...BUT WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS THRU SAT
MORNING. SLIGHT WARMER FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND
LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. DEEP UPPER
TROUGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION LATER TODAY. NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE WINDS ONCE
AGAIN DURING THE DAY TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT
AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. THERE WILL BE
SLGT TO LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNS
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW PRESSURE LIFTING WELL OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
MIDWEST. ONGOING CAA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG NW WINDS OF 15-25
KT OVER THE WATER. WAVES AVG 2-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. SCA CONDITIONS
PERSIST THRU THE NIGHT THANKS TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CAA.
WAVES REMAIN 2-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SW OF THE
WATER EARLY SUN...WITH NW WINDS DIMINISHING AOB 15 KT BY MID
MORNING. SEAS SUBSIDE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH OF THE WATER SUN AFTERNOON...WITH FLOW BECOMING SLY AOB 10
KT LATE SUN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MON
NIGHT...CROSSING THE WATER LATE MON-EARLY MON NIGHT. PREFRONTAL
SLY SURGE EXPECTED SUN NIGHT...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15 KT IN
THE BAY AND 20 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. MODELS INDICATE SCA
CONDITIONS...BUT BASED ON WAA AND COLD WATER...EXPECT A SHARP LOW
LEVEL INVERSION TO PREVENT STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE
WATER. HAVE CAPPED SPEEDS BELOW SCA ATTM. SLY FETCH MAY PUSH SEAS
TO 5 FT IN THE NRN COASTAL WATERS MON MORNING. SWLY FLOW RETURNS
MON NIGHT- TUES. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION LATE TUES WITH ANOTHER FRONT CROSSING THE WATER EARLY WEDS
NIGHT. WINDS STAY AOB 15 KT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDS-THURS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY 3/29:

RIC...22/1923
ORF...25/1982
SBY...18/1923
ECG...24/1982

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAO
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...AJZ/JAO
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS/DAP/LSA
MARINE...SAM
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290538
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
138 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SETTLES OVER
THE AREA SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LAST OF THE S/W ENERGY (IN THE FORM OF A SCT-BKN AC DECK) WILL
CROSS THE CHES BAY / ERN SHORE AREAS NEXT FEW HRS. KEPT IT DRY
GIVEN DP TMPS DROPPING THRU THE TEENS...BUT A STRAY FLURRY STILL
PSBL ACROSS THE ERN SHORE NEXT HR OR SO. OTW...SKIES CLEAR AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. JANUARY LIKE READINGS BY MORNING
AS WINDS DECOUPLE WEST OF THE BAY ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADITIONAL
COOLING. LOWS IN THE L-M20S...XCPT U20S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS
OF SE VA/NE NC. THESE READINGS XPCTD TO FALL JUST SHORT OF THE
RECORD LOWS FOR 3/29. SEE CLI SECTION BLO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY...SUNNY...AND COOL CONDITIONS WITH A LIGHT NW
WIND BECOMING SW BY AFTERNOON. LIMITED MIXING WILL ONLY ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE
LOW 50S OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC. HAVE DROPPED HIGH BY A DEGREE OR
TWO BASED ON THE GUIDANCE...BUT EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE
WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLY PUSHING IN FROM THE NW LATE IN THE
DAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSS THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN. WITH THE LOW-
LEVEL AIRMASS STARTING OUT SO FRY AND RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
LIMITED...SO THERE IS ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY FOR -SHRA (~20-30%)
WITH RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS. MANY AREAS WILL
LIKELY ONLY SEE A TRACE OF THAT MUCH. THE BOUNDARY DROPS S OF THE
REGION EARLY MONDAY WITH DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW DEVELOPING MONDAY.
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EARLY SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY BY AFTERNOON. IMPROVED MIXING AND MORE SUN WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 60S E...TO MID/UPPER 60S
W. THIS WILL BE AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
DIRECTLY ACROSS THE REGION. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY MOST OF
THE DAY WITH HIGHS REMAINING NEAR 60 OVER EASTERN SHORE AND ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BETTER AGREEMENT IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO HANDLING
SPLIT FLOW COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO. TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED...GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS NOW WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE DROPPING INTO THE NRN MID-
ATLANTIC REGION LATE TUES NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PROGGED TO TRACK
ACROSS NRN VA/MD TUES NIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY WEDS MORNING. BEST MOISTURE/LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA...BUT WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE NE ZONES LATE TUES NIGHT CLOSEST TO BEST
MOISTURE/LIFT. SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT PUSH WELL OFFSHORE WEDS AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE REGION. MODEST CAA AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL RESULT IN TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND AND MID-UPPER
50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE WEDS
NIGHT-THURS AS A SRN STREAM WAVE LIFTS FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE
TN VALLEY. MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED THANKS TO INCREASING S-SE FLOW.
28/12Z ECMWF QUICKER WITH BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE REGION THURS
AFTERNOON. HAVE DROPPED POPS THURS AFTERNOON...BUT KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SSW FLOW WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPS
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 INLAND TO LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS
THURS. EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE THURS AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...CHANCE FOR PRECIP RAMP UP THURS NIGHT-FRI AS THE SRN
STREAM WAVE LIFTS OVER THE REGION. NRN STREAM WAVE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST ALSO PROGGED TO FLATTEN AND TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE THURS-THURS NIGHT. ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED SFC LOW LOCATES
OVER SERN CANADA THURS NIGHT-FRI MORNING...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE FRI-SAT TIMEFRAME. SPATIAL AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST...BUT WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS THRU SAT
MORNING. SLIGHT WARMER FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND
LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. DEEP UPPER
TROUGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION LATER TODAY. NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE WINDS ONCE
AGAIN DURING THE DAY TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT
AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. THERE WILL BE
SLGT TO LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNS
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW PRESSURE LIFTING WELL OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
MIDWEST. ONGOING CAA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG NW WINDS OF 15-25
KT OVER THE WATER. WAVES AVG 2-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. SCA CONDITIONS
PERSIST THRU THE NIGHT THANKS TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CAA.
WAVES REMAIN 2-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SW OF THE
WATER EARLY SUN...WITH NW WINDS DIMINISHING AOB 15 KT BY MID
MORNING. SEAS SUBSIDE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH OF THE WATER SUN AFTERNOON...WITH FLOW BECOMING SLY AOB 10
KT LATE SUN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MON
NIGHT...CROSSING THE WATER LATE MON-EARLY MON NIGHT. PREFRONTAL
SLY SURGE EXPECTED SUN NIGHT...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15 KT IN
THE BAY AND 20 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. MODELS INDICATE SCA
CONDITIONS...BUT BASED ON WAA AND COLD WATER...EXPECT A SHARP LOW
LEVEL INVERSION TO PREVENT STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE
WATER. HAVE CAPPED SPEEDS BELOW SCA ATTM. SLY FETCH MAY PUSH SEAS
TO 5 FT IN THE NRN COASTAL WATERS MON MORNING. SWLY FLOW RETURNS
MON NIGHT- TUES. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION LATE TUES WITH ANOTHER FRONT CROSSING THE WATER EARLY WEDS
NIGHT. WINDS STAY AOB 15 KT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDS-THURS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY 3/29:

RIC...22/1923
ORF...25/1982
SBY...18/1923
ECG...24/1982

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAO
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...AJZ/JAO
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS/DAP/LSA
MARINE...SAM
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290538
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
138 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SETTLES OVER
THE AREA SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LAST OF THE S/W ENERGY (IN THE FORM OF A SCT-BKN AC DECK) WILL
CROSS THE CHES BAY / ERN SHORE AREAS NEXT FEW HRS. KEPT IT DRY
GIVEN DP TMPS DROPPING THRU THE TEENS...BUT A STRAY FLURRY STILL
PSBL ACROSS THE ERN SHORE NEXT HR OR SO. OTW...SKIES CLEAR AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. JANUARY LIKE READINGS BY MORNING
AS WINDS DECOUPLE WEST OF THE BAY ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADITIONAL
COOLING. LOWS IN THE L-M20S...XCPT U20S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS
OF SE VA/NE NC. THESE READINGS XPCTD TO FALL JUST SHORT OF THE
RECORD LOWS FOR 3/29. SEE CLI SECTION BLO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY...SUNNY...AND COOL CONDITIONS WITH A LIGHT NW
WIND BECOMING SW BY AFTERNOON. LIMITED MIXING WILL ONLY ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE
LOW 50S OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC. HAVE DROPPED HIGH BY A DEGREE OR
TWO BASED ON THE GUIDANCE...BUT EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE
WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLY PUSHING IN FROM THE NW LATE IN THE
DAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSS THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN. WITH THE LOW-
LEVEL AIRMASS STARTING OUT SO FRY AND RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
LIMITED...SO THERE IS ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY FOR -SHRA (~20-30%)
WITH RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS. MANY AREAS WILL
LIKELY ONLY SEE A TRACE OF THAT MUCH. THE BOUNDARY DROPS S OF THE
REGION EARLY MONDAY WITH DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW DEVELOPING MONDAY.
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EARLY SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY BY AFTERNOON. IMPROVED MIXING AND MORE SUN WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 60S E...TO MID/UPPER 60S
W. THIS WILL BE AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
DIRECTLY ACROSS THE REGION. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY MOST OF
THE DAY WITH HIGHS REMAINING NEAR 60 OVER EASTERN SHORE AND ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BETTER AGREEMENT IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO HANDLING
SPLIT FLOW COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO. TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED...GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS NOW WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE DROPPING INTO THE NRN MID-
ATLANTIC REGION LATE TUES NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PROGGED TO TRACK
ACROSS NRN VA/MD TUES NIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY WEDS MORNING. BEST MOISTURE/LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA...BUT WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE NE ZONES LATE TUES NIGHT CLOSEST TO BEST
MOISTURE/LIFT. SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT PUSH WELL OFFSHORE WEDS AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE REGION. MODEST CAA AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL RESULT IN TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND AND MID-UPPER
50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE WEDS
NIGHT-THURS AS A SRN STREAM WAVE LIFTS FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE
TN VALLEY. MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED THANKS TO INCREASING S-SE FLOW.
28/12Z ECMWF QUICKER WITH BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE REGION THURS
AFTERNOON. HAVE DROPPED POPS THURS AFTERNOON...BUT KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SSW FLOW WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPS
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 INLAND TO LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS
THURS. EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE THURS AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...CHANCE FOR PRECIP RAMP UP THURS NIGHT-FRI AS THE SRN
STREAM WAVE LIFTS OVER THE REGION. NRN STREAM WAVE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST ALSO PROGGED TO FLATTEN AND TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE THURS-THURS NIGHT. ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED SFC LOW LOCATES
OVER SERN CANADA THURS NIGHT-FRI MORNING...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE FRI-SAT TIMEFRAME. SPATIAL AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST...BUT WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS THRU SAT
MORNING. SLIGHT WARMER FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND
LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. DEEP UPPER
TROUGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION LATER TODAY. NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE WINDS ONCE
AGAIN DURING THE DAY TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT
AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. THERE WILL BE
SLGT TO LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNS
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW PRESSURE LIFTING WELL OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
MIDWEST. ONGOING CAA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG NW WINDS OF 15-25
KT OVER THE WATER. WAVES AVG 2-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. SCA CONDITIONS
PERSIST THRU THE NIGHT THANKS TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CAA.
WAVES REMAIN 2-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SW OF THE
WATER EARLY SUN...WITH NW WINDS DIMINISHING AOB 15 KT BY MID
MORNING. SEAS SUBSIDE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH OF THE WATER SUN AFTERNOON...WITH FLOW BECOMING SLY AOB 10
KT LATE SUN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MON
NIGHT...CROSSING THE WATER LATE MON-EARLY MON NIGHT. PREFRONTAL
SLY SURGE EXPECTED SUN NIGHT...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15 KT IN
THE BAY AND 20 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. MODELS INDICATE SCA
CONDITIONS...BUT BASED ON WAA AND COLD WATER...EXPECT A SHARP LOW
LEVEL INVERSION TO PREVENT STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE
WATER. HAVE CAPPED SPEEDS BELOW SCA ATTM. SLY FETCH MAY PUSH SEAS
TO 5 FT IN THE NRN COASTAL WATERS MON MORNING. SWLY FLOW RETURNS
MON NIGHT- TUES. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION LATE TUES WITH ANOTHER FRONT CROSSING THE WATER EARLY WEDS
NIGHT. WINDS STAY AOB 15 KT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDS-THURS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY 3/29:

RIC...22/1923
ORF...25/1982
SBY...18/1923
ECG...24/1982

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAO
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...AJZ/JAO
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS/DAP/LSA
MARINE...SAM
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290538
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
138 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SETTLES OVER
THE AREA SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LAST OF THE S/W ENERGY (IN THE FORM OF A SCT-BKN AC DECK) WILL
CROSS THE CHES BAY / ERN SHORE AREAS NEXT FEW HRS. KEPT IT DRY
GIVEN DP TMPS DROPPING THRU THE TEENS...BUT A STRAY FLURRY STILL
PSBL ACROSS THE ERN SHORE NEXT HR OR SO. OTW...SKIES CLEAR AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. JANUARY LIKE READINGS BY MORNING
AS WINDS DECOUPLE WEST OF THE BAY ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADITIONAL
COOLING. LOWS IN THE L-M20S...XCPT U20S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS
OF SE VA/NE NC. THESE READINGS XPCTD TO FALL JUST SHORT OF THE
RECORD LOWS FOR 3/29. SEE CLI SECTION BLO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY...SUNNY...AND COOL CONDITIONS WITH A LIGHT NW
WIND BECOMING SW BY AFTERNOON. LIMITED MIXING WILL ONLY ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE
LOW 50S OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC. HAVE DROPPED HIGH BY A DEGREE OR
TWO BASED ON THE GUIDANCE...BUT EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE
WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLY PUSHING IN FROM THE NW LATE IN THE
DAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSS THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN. WITH THE LOW-
LEVEL AIRMASS STARTING OUT SO FRY AND RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
LIMITED...SO THERE IS ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY FOR -SHRA (~20-30%)
WITH RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS. MANY AREAS WILL
LIKELY ONLY SEE A TRACE OF THAT MUCH. THE BOUNDARY DROPS S OF THE
REGION EARLY MONDAY WITH DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW DEVELOPING MONDAY.
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EARLY SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY BY AFTERNOON. IMPROVED MIXING AND MORE SUN WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 60S E...TO MID/UPPER 60S
W. THIS WILL BE AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
DIRECTLY ACROSS THE REGION. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY MOST OF
THE DAY WITH HIGHS REMAINING NEAR 60 OVER EASTERN SHORE AND ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BETTER AGREEMENT IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO HANDLING
SPLIT FLOW COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO. TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED...GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS NOW WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE DROPPING INTO THE NRN MID-
ATLANTIC REGION LATE TUES NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PROGGED TO TRACK
ACROSS NRN VA/MD TUES NIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY WEDS MORNING. BEST MOISTURE/LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA...BUT WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE NE ZONES LATE TUES NIGHT CLOSEST TO BEST
MOISTURE/LIFT. SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT PUSH WELL OFFSHORE WEDS AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE REGION. MODEST CAA AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL RESULT IN TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND AND MID-UPPER
50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE WEDS
NIGHT-THURS AS A SRN STREAM WAVE LIFTS FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE
TN VALLEY. MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED THANKS TO INCREASING S-SE FLOW.
28/12Z ECMWF QUICKER WITH BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE REGION THURS
AFTERNOON. HAVE DROPPED POPS THURS AFTERNOON...BUT KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SSW FLOW WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPS
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 INLAND TO LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS
THURS. EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE THURS AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...CHANCE FOR PRECIP RAMP UP THURS NIGHT-FRI AS THE SRN
STREAM WAVE LIFTS OVER THE REGION. NRN STREAM WAVE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST ALSO PROGGED TO FLATTEN AND TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE THURS-THURS NIGHT. ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED SFC LOW LOCATES
OVER SERN CANADA THURS NIGHT-FRI MORNING...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE FRI-SAT TIMEFRAME. SPATIAL AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST...BUT WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS THRU SAT
MORNING. SLIGHT WARMER FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND
LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. DEEP UPPER
TROUGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION LATER TODAY. NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE WINDS ONCE
AGAIN DURING THE DAY TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT
AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. THERE WILL BE
SLGT TO LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNS
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW PRESSURE LIFTING WELL OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
MIDWEST. ONGOING CAA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG NW WINDS OF 15-25
KT OVER THE WATER. WAVES AVG 2-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. SCA CONDITIONS
PERSIST THRU THE NIGHT THANKS TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CAA.
WAVES REMAIN 2-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SW OF THE
WATER EARLY SUN...WITH NW WINDS DIMINISHING AOB 15 KT BY MID
MORNING. SEAS SUBSIDE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH OF THE WATER SUN AFTERNOON...WITH FLOW BECOMING SLY AOB 10
KT LATE SUN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MON
NIGHT...CROSSING THE WATER LATE MON-EARLY MON NIGHT. PREFRONTAL
SLY SURGE EXPECTED SUN NIGHT...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15 KT IN
THE BAY AND 20 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. MODELS INDICATE SCA
CONDITIONS...BUT BASED ON WAA AND COLD WATER...EXPECT A SHARP LOW
LEVEL INVERSION TO PREVENT STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE
WATER. HAVE CAPPED SPEEDS BELOW SCA ATTM. SLY FETCH MAY PUSH SEAS
TO 5 FT IN THE NRN COASTAL WATERS MON MORNING. SWLY FLOW RETURNS
MON NIGHT- TUES. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION LATE TUES WITH ANOTHER FRONT CROSSING THE WATER EARLY WEDS
NIGHT. WINDS STAY AOB 15 KT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDS-THURS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY 3/29:

RIC...22/1923
ORF...25/1982
SBY...18/1923
ECG...24/1982

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAO
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...AJZ/JAO
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS/DAP/LSA
MARINE...SAM
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290538
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
138 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SETTLES OVER
THE AREA SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LAST OF THE S/W ENERGY (IN THE FORM OF A SCT-BKN AC DECK) WILL
CROSS THE CHES BAY / ERN SHORE AREAS NEXT FEW HRS. KEPT IT DRY
GIVEN DP TMPS DROPPING THRU THE TEENS...BUT A STRAY FLURRY STILL
PSBL ACROSS THE ERN SHORE NEXT HR OR SO. OTW...SKIES CLEAR AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. JANUARY LIKE READINGS BY MORNING
AS WINDS DECOUPLE WEST OF THE BAY ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADITIONAL
COOLING. LOWS IN THE L-M20S...XCPT U20S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS
OF SE VA/NE NC. THESE READINGS XPCTD TO FALL JUST SHORT OF THE
RECORD LOWS FOR 3/29. SEE CLI SECTION BLO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY...SUNNY...AND COOL CONDITIONS WITH A LIGHT NW
WIND BECOMING SW BY AFTERNOON. LIMITED MIXING WILL ONLY ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE
LOW 50S OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC. HAVE DROPPED HIGH BY A DEGREE OR
TWO BASED ON THE GUIDANCE...BUT EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE
WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLY PUSHING IN FROM THE NW LATE IN THE
DAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSS THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN. WITH THE LOW-
LEVEL AIRMASS STARTING OUT SO FRY AND RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
LIMITED...SO THERE IS ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY FOR -SHRA (~20-30%)
WITH RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS. MANY AREAS WILL
LIKELY ONLY SEE A TRACE OF THAT MUCH. THE BOUNDARY DROPS S OF THE
REGION EARLY MONDAY WITH DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW DEVELOPING MONDAY.
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EARLY SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY BY AFTERNOON. IMPROVED MIXING AND MORE SUN WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 60S E...TO MID/UPPER 60S
W. THIS WILL BE AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
DIRECTLY ACROSS THE REGION. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY MOST OF
THE DAY WITH HIGHS REMAINING NEAR 60 OVER EASTERN SHORE AND ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BETTER AGREEMENT IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO HANDLING
SPLIT FLOW COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO. TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED...GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS NOW WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE DROPPING INTO THE NRN MID-
ATLANTIC REGION LATE TUES NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PROGGED TO TRACK
ACROSS NRN VA/MD TUES NIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY WEDS MORNING. BEST MOISTURE/LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA...BUT WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE NE ZONES LATE TUES NIGHT CLOSEST TO BEST
MOISTURE/LIFT. SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT PUSH WELL OFFSHORE WEDS AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE REGION. MODEST CAA AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL RESULT IN TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND AND MID-UPPER
50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE WEDS
NIGHT-THURS AS A SRN STREAM WAVE LIFTS FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE
TN VALLEY. MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED THANKS TO INCREASING S-SE FLOW.
28/12Z ECMWF QUICKER WITH BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE REGION THURS
AFTERNOON. HAVE DROPPED POPS THURS AFTERNOON...BUT KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SSW FLOW WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPS
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 INLAND TO LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS
THURS. EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE THURS AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...CHANCE FOR PRECIP RAMP UP THURS NIGHT-FRI AS THE SRN
STREAM WAVE LIFTS OVER THE REGION. NRN STREAM WAVE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST ALSO PROGGED TO FLATTEN AND TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE THURS-THURS NIGHT. ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED SFC LOW LOCATES
OVER SERN CANADA THURS NIGHT-FRI MORNING...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE FRI-SAT TIMEFRAME. SPATIAL AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST...BUT WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS THRU SAT
MORNING. SLIGHT WARMER FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND
LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. DEEP UPPER
TROUGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION LATER TODAY. NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE WINDS ONCE
AGAIN DURING THE DAY TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT
AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. THERE WILL BE
SLGT TO LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNS
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW PRESSURE LIFTING WELL OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
MIDWEST. ONGOING CAA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG NW WINDS OF 15-25
KT OVER THE WATER. WAVES AVG 2-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. SCA CONDITIONS
PERSIST THRU THE NIGHT THANKS TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CAA.
WAVES REMAIN 2-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SW OF THE
WATER EARLY SUN...WITH NW WINDS DIMINISHING AOB 15 KT BY MID
MORNING. SEAS SUBSIDE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH OF THE WATER SUN AFTERNOON...WITH FLOW BECOMING SLY AOB 10
KT LATE SUN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MON
NIGHT...CROSSING THE WATER LATE MON-EARLY MON NIGHT. PREFRONTAL
SLY SURGE EXPECTED SUN NIGHT...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15 KT IN
THE BAY AND 20 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. MODELS INDICATE SCA
CONDITIONS...BUT BASED ON WAA AND COLD WATER...EXPECT A SHARP LOW
LEVEL INVERSION TO PREVENT STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE
WATER. HAVE CAPPED SPEEDS BELOW SCA ATTM. SLY FETCH MAY PUSH SEAS
TO 5 FT IN THE NRN COASTAL WATERS MON MORNING. SWLY FLOW RETURNS
MON NIGHT- TUES. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION LATE TUES WITH ANOTHER FRONT CROSSING THE WATER EARLY WEDS
NIGHT. WINDS STAY AOB 15 KT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDS-THURS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY 3/29:

RIC...22/1923
ORF...25/1982
SBY...18/1923
ECG...24/1982

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAO
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...AJZ/JAO
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS/DAP/LSA
MARINE...SAM
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290152
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
952 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SETTLES OVER
THE AREA SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
LAST OF THE S/W ENERGY (IN THE FORM OF A SCT-BKN AC DECK) WILL
CROSS THE CHES BAY / ERN SHORE AREAS NEXT FEW HRS. KEPT IT DRY
GIVEN DP TMPS DROPPING THRU THE TEENS...BUT A STRAY FLURRY STILL
PSBL ACROSS THE ERN SHORE NEXT HR OR SO. OTW...SKIES CLEAR AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. JANUARY LIKE READINGS BY MORNING
AS WINDS DECOUPLE WEST OF THE BAY ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADITIONAL
COOLING. LOWS IN THE L-M20S...XCPT U20S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS
OF SE VA/NE NC. THESE READINGS XPCTD TO FALL JUST SHORT OF THE
RECORD LOWS FOR 3/29. SEE CLI SECTION BLO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY...SUNNY...AND COOL CONDITIONS WITH A LIGHT NW
WIND BECOMING SW BY AFTERNOON. LIMITED MIXING WILL ONLY ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE
LOW 50S OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC. HAVE DROPPED HIGH BY A DEGREE OR
TWO BASED ON THE GUIDANCE...BUT EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE
WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLY PUSHING IN FROM THE NW LATE IN THE
DAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSS THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN. WITH THE LOW-
LEVEL AIRMASS STARTING OUT SO FRY AND RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
LIMITED...SO THERE IS ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY FOR -SHRA (~20-30%)
WITH RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS. MANY AREAS WILL
LIKELY ONLY SEE A TRACE OF THAT MUCH. THE BOUNDARY DROPS S OF THE
REGION EARLY MONDAY WITH DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW DEVELOPING MONDAY.
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EARLY SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY BY AFTERNOON. IMPROVED MIXING AND MORE SUN WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 60S E...TO MID/UPPER 60S
W. THIS WILL BE AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
DIRECTLY ACROSS THE REGION. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY MOST OF
THE DAY WITH HIGHS REMAINING NEAR 60 OVER EASTERN SHORE AND ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BETTER AGREEMENT IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO HANDLING
SPLIT FLOW COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO. TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED...GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS NOW WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE DROPPING INTO THE NRN MID-
ATLANTIC REGION LATE TUES NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PROGGED TO TRACK
ACROSS NRN VA/MD TUES NIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY WEDS MORNING. BEST MOISTURE/LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA...BUT WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE NE ZONES LATE TUES NIGHT CLOSEST TO BEST
MOISTURE/LIFT. SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT PUSH WELL OFFSHORE WEDS AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE REGION. MODEST CAA AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL RESULT IN TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND AND MID-UPPER
50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE WEDS
NIGHT-THURS AS A SRN STREAM WAVE LIFTS FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE
TN VALLEY. MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED THANKS TO INCREASING S-SE FLOW.
28/12Z ECMWF QUICKER WITH BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE REGION THURS
AFTERNOON. HAVE DROPPED POPS THURS AFTERNOON...BUT KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SSW FLOW WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPS
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 INLAND TO LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS
THURS. EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE THURS AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...CHANCE FOR PRECIP RAMP UP THURS NIGHT-FRI AS THE SRN
STREAM WAVE LIFTS OVER THE REGION. NRN STREAM WAVE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST ALSO PROGGED TO FLATTEN AND TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE THURS-THURS NIGHT. ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED SFC LOW LOCATES
OVER SERN CANADA THURS NIGHT-FRI MORNING...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE FRI-SAT TIMEFRAME. SPATIAL AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST...BUT WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS THRU SAT
MORNING. SLIGHT WARMER FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND
LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. DEEP UPPER
TROUGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. FEW CU DUE TO COLD AIR AT AROUND
6K FT. THIS CLOUD LAYER SHOULD CLEAR AFTER SUNSET AS SURFACE
HEATING ENDS. NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
INCREASE IN THE WINDS ONCE AGAIN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. THERE
WILL BE SLGT TO LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
RETURNS THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW PRESSURE LIFTING WELL OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
MIDWEST. ONGOING CAA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG NW WINDS OF 15-25
KT OVER THE WATER. WAVES AVG 2-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. SCA CONDITIONS
PERSIST THRU THE NIGHT THANKS TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CAA.
WAVES REMAIN 2-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SW OF THE
WATER EARLY FRI...WITH NW WINDS DIMINISHING AOB 15 KT BY MID
MORNING. SEAS SUBSIDE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
OF THE WATER SUN AFTERNOON...WITH FLOW BECOMING SLY AOB 10 KT LATE
SUN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MON
NIGHT...CROSSING THE WATER LATE MON-EARLY MON NIGHT. PREFRONTAL SLY
SURGE EXPECTED SUN NIGHT...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE
BAY AND 20 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. MODELS INDICATE SCA
CONDITIONS...BUT BASED ON WAA AND COLD WATER...EXPECT A SHARP LOW
LEVEL INVERSION TO PREVENT STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE
WATER. HAVE CAPPED SPEEDS BELOW SCA ATTM. SLY FETCH MAY PUSH SEAS
TO 5 FT IN THE NRN COASTAL WATERS MON MORNING. SWLY FLOW RETURNS
MON NIGHT- TUES. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION LATE TUES WITH ANOTHER FRONT CROSSING THE WATER EARLY WEDS
NIGHT. WINDS STAY AOB 15 KT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDS-THURS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY 3/29:

RIC...22/1923
ORF...25/1982
SBY...18/1923
ECG...24/1982

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAO
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...AJZ/JAO
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...SAM



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290152
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
952 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SETTLES OVER
THE AREA SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
LAST OF THE S/W ENERGY (IN THE FORM OF A SCT-BKN AC DECK) WILL
CROSS THE CHES BAY / ERN SHORE AREAS NEXT FEW HRS. KEPT IT DRY
GIVEN DP TMPS DROPPING THRU THE TEENS...BUT A STRAY FLURRY STILL
PSBL ACROSS THE ERN SHORE NEXT HR OR SO. OTW...SKIES CLEAR AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. JANUARY LIKE READINGS BY MORNING
AS WINDS DECOUPLE WEST OF THE BAY ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADITIONAL
COOLING. LOWS IN THE L-M20S...XCPT U20S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS
OF SE VA/NE NC. THESE READINGS XPCTD TO FALL JUST SHORT OF THE
RECORD LOWS FOR 3/29. SEE CLI SECTION BLO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY...SUNNY...AND COOL CONDITIONS WITH A LIGHT NW
WIND BECOMING SW BY AFTERNOON. LIMITED MIXING WILL ONLY ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE
LOW 50S OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC. HAVE DROPPED HIGH BY A DEGREE OR
TWO BASED ON THE GUIDANCE...BUT EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE
WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLY PUSHING IN FROM THE NW LATE IN THE
DAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSS THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN. WITH THE LOW-
LEVEL AIRMASS STARTING OUT SO FRY AND RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
LIMITED...SO THERE IS ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY FOR -SHRA (~20-30%)
WITH RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS. MANY AREAS WILL
LIKELY ONLY SEE A TRACE OF THAT MUCH. THE BOUNDARY DROPS S OF THE
REGION EARLY MONDAY WITH DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW DEVELOPING MONDAY.
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EARLY SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY BY AFTERNOON. IMPROVED MIXING AND MORE SUN WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 60S E...TO MID/UPPER 60S
W. THIS WILL BE AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
DIRECTLY ACROSS THE REGION. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY MOST OF
THE DAY WITH HIGHS REMAINING NEAR 60 OVER EASTERN SHORE AND ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BETTER AGREEMENT IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO HANDLING
SPLIT FLOW COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO. TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED...GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS NOW WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE DROPPING INTO THE NRN MID-
ATLANTIC REGION LATE TUES NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PROGGED TO TRACK
ACROSS NRN VA/MD TUES NIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY WEDS MORNING. BEST MOISTURE/LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA...BUT WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE NE ZONES LATE TUES NIGHT CLOSEST TO BEST
MOISTURE/LIFT. SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT PUSH WELL OFFSHORE WEDS AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE REGION. MODEST CAA AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL RESULT IN TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND AND MID-UPPER
50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE WEDS
NIGHT-THURS AS A SRN STREAM WAVE LIFTS FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE
TN VALLEY. MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED THANKS TO INCREASING S-SE FLOW.
28/12Z ECMWF QUICKER WITH BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE REGION THURS
AFTERNOON. HAVE DROPPED POPS THURS AFTERNOON...BUT KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SSW FLOW WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPS
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 INLAND TO LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS
THURS. EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE THURS AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...CHANCE FOR PRECIP RAMP UP THURS NIGHT-FRI AS THE SRN
STREAM WAVE LIFTS OVER THE REGION. NRN STREAM WAVE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST ALSO PROGGED TO FLATTEN AND TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE THURS-THURS NIGHT. ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED SFC LOW LOCATES
OVER SERN CANADA THURS NIGHT-FRI MORNING...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE FRI-SAT TIMEFRAME. SPATIAL AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST...BUT WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS THRU SAT
MORNING. SLIGHT WARMER FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND
LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. DEEP UPPER
TROUGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. FEW CU DUE TO COLD AIR AT AROUND
6K FT. THIS CLOUD LAYER SHOULD CLEAR AFTER SUNSET AS SURFACE
HEATING ENDS. NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
INCREASE IN THE WINDS ONCE AGAIN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. THERE
WILL BE SLGT TO LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
RETURNS THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW PRESSURE LIFTING WELL OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
MIDWEST. ONGOING CAA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG NW WINDS OF 15-25
KT OVER THE WATER. WAVES AVG 2-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. SCA CONDITIONS
PERSIST THRU THE NIGHT THANKS TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CAA.
WAVES REMAIN 2-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SW OF THE
WATER EARLY FRI...WITH NW WINDS DIMINISHING AOB 15 KT BY MID
MORNING. SEAS SUBSIDE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
OF THE WATER SUN AFTERNOON...WITH FLOW BECOMING SLY AOB 10 KT LATE
SUN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MON
NIGHT...CROSSING THE WATER LATE MON-EARLY MON NIGHT. PREFRONTAL SLY
SURGE EXPECTED SUN NIGHT...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE
BAY AND 20 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. MODELS INDICATE SCA
CONDITIONS...BUT BASED ON WAA AND COLD WATER...EXPECT A SHARP LOW
LEVEL INVERSION TO PREVENT STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE
WATER. HAVE CAPPED SPEEDS BELOW SCA ATTM. SLY FETCH MAY PUSH SEAS
TO 5 FT IN THE NRN COASTAL WATERS MON MORNING. SWLY FLOW RETURNS
MON NIGHT- TUES. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION LATE TUES WITH ANOTHER FRONT CROSSING THE WATER EARLY WEDS
NIGHT. WINDS STAY AOB 15 KT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDS-THURS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY 3/29:

RIC...22/1923
ORF...25/1982
SBY...18/1923
ECG...24/1982

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAO
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...AJZ/JAO
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...SAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290152
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
952 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SETTLES OVER
THE AREA SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
LAST OF THE S/W ENERGY (IN THE FORM OF A SCT-BKN AC DECK) WILL
CROSS THE CHES BAY / ERN SHORE AREAS NEXT FEW HRS. KEPT IT DRY
GIVEN DP TMPS DROPPING THRU THE TEENS...BUT A STRAY FLURRY STILL
PSBL ACROSS THE ERN SHORE NEXT HR OR SO. OTW...SKIES CLEAR AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. JANUARY LIKE READINGS BY MORNING
AS WINDS DECOUPLE WEST OF THE BAY ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADITIONAL
COOLING. LOWS IN THE L-M20S...XCPT U20S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS
OF SE VA/NE NC. THESE READINGS XPCTD TO FALL JUST SHORT OF THE
RECORD LOWS FOR 3/29. SEE CLI SECTION BLO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY...SUNNY...AND COOL CONDITIONS WITH A LIGHT NW
WIND BECOMING SW BY AFTERNOON. LIMITED MIXING WILL ONLY ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE
LOW 50S OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC. HAVE DROPPED HIGH BY A DEGREE OR
TWO BASED ON THE GUIDANCE...BUT EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE
WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLY PUSHING IN FROM THE NW LATE IN THE
DAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSS THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN. WITH THE LOW-
LEVEL AIRMASS STARTING OUT SO FRY AND RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
LIMITED...SO THERE IS ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY FOR -SHRA (~20-30%)
WITH RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS. MANY AREAS WILL
LIKELY ONLY SEE A TRACE OF THAT MUCH. THE BOUNDARY DROPS S OF THE
REGION EARLY MONDAY WITH DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW DEVELOPING MONDAY.
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EARLY SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY BY AFTERNOON. IMPROVED MIXING AND MORE SUN WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 60S E...TO MID/UPPER 60S
W. THIS WILL BE AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
DIRECTLY ACROSS THE REGION. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY MOST OF
THE DAY WITH HIGHS REMAINING NEAR 60 OVER EASTERN SHORE AND ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BETTER AGREEMENT IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO HANDLING
SPLIT FLOW COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO. TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED...GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS NOW WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE DROPPING INTO THE NRN MID-
ATLANTIC REGION LATE TUES NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PROGGED TO TRACK
ACROSS NRN VA/MD TUES NIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY WEDS MORNING. BEST MOISTURE/LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA...BUT WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE NE ZONES LATE TUES NIGHT CLOSEST TO BEST
MOISTURE/LIFT. SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT PUSH WELL OFFSHORE WEDS AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE REGION. MODEST CAA AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL RESULT IN TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND AND MID-UPPER
50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE WEDS
NIGHT-THURS AS A SRN STREAM WAVE LIFTS FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE
TN VALLEY. MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED THANKS TO INCREASING S-SE FLOW.
28/12Z ECMWF QUICKER WITH BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE REGION THURS
AFTERNOON. HAVE DROPPED POPS THURS AFTERNOON...BUT KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SSW FLOW WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPS
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 INLAND TO LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS
THURS. EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE THURS AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...CHANCE FOR PRECIP RAMP UP THURS NIGHT-FRI AS THE SRN
STREAM WAVE LIFTS OVER THE REGION. NRN STREAM WAVE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST ALSO PROGGED TO FLATTEN AND TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE THURS-THURS NIGHT. ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED SFC LOW LOCATES
OVER SERN CANADA THURS NIGHT-FRI MORNING...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE FRI-SAT TIMEFRAME. SPATIAL AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST...BUT WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS THRU SAT
MORNING. SLIGHT WARMER FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND
LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. DEEP UPPER
TROUGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. FEW CU DUE TO COLD AIR AT AROUND
6K FT. THIS CLOUD LAYER SHOULD CLEAR AFTER SUNSET AS SURFACE
HEATING ENDS. NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
INCREASE IN THE WINDS ONCE AGAIN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. THERE
WILL BE SLGT TO LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
RETURNS THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW PRESSURE LIFTING WELL OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
MIDWEST. ONGOING CAA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG NW WINDS OF 15-25
KT OVER THE WATER. WAVES AVG 2-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. SCA CONDITIONS
PERSIST THRU THE NIGHT THANKS TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CAA.
WAVES REMAIN 2-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SW OF THE
WATER EARLY FRI...WITH NW WINDS DIMINISHING AOB 15 KT BY MID
MORNING. SEAS SUBSIDE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
OF THE WATER SUN AFTERNOON...WITH FLOW BECOMING SLY AOB 10 KT LATE
SUN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MON
NIGHT...CROSSING THE WATER LATE MON-EARLY MON NIGHT. PREFRONTAL SLY
SURGE EXPECTED SUN NIGHT...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE
BAY AND 20 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. MODELS INDICATE SCA
CONDITIONS...BUT BASED ON WAA AND COLD WATER...EXPECT A SHARP LOW
LEVEL INVERSION TO PREVENT STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE
WATER. HAVE CAPPED SPEEDS BELOW SCA ATTM. SLY FETCH MAY PUSH SEAS
TO 5 FT IN THE NRN COASTAL WATERS MON MORNING. SWLY FLOW RETURNS
MON NIGHT- TUES. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION LATE TUES WITH ANOTHER FRONT CROSSING THE WATER EARLY WEDS
NIGHT. WINDS STAY AOB 15 KT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDS-THURS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY 3/29:

RIC...22/1923
ORF...25/1982
SBY...18/1923
ECG...24/1982

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAO
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...AJZ/JAO
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...SAM



000
FXUS61 KRNK 290119
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
919 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT BEFORE SLIDING TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ON SUNDAY WILL MOVE EAST AND
CROSS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FINALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 855 PM EDT SATURDAY...

MAIN UPDATE TO ADJUST LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT GIVEN AN ARID PWAT OF
.07 OFF THE EVENING RNK SOUNDING AND VERY LOW DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY DAYBREAK. THIS
RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW JUST ENOUGH DECOUPLING ESPCLY VALLEYS UNDER
CLEAR SKIES TO SEND MOST LOWS INTO THE TEENS WEST WITH A FEW
SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE. BREEZE MAY STAY UP JUST LONG ENOUGH TO
KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT IN THE EAST BUT STILL UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S PIEDMONT. THUS CUTTING LOWS A CAT OR TWO IN THE WESTERN
VALLEYS AND A FEW DEGREES IN SPOTS OVER THE EAST. OTHERWISE ONLY
SMALL CHANGES TO REDUCE WINDS A BIT MORE LATER TONIGHT ESPCLY
UNDER THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AROUND DAYBREAK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 240 PM EDT SATURDAY...

1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BUILD SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. PATCHY LOW STRATO CU WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET.

UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...WINDS WILL DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT AND WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS...THE DRY AIR MASS WILL
RESULT IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. RECORD
LOWS TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING IN
LYNCHBURG...BLACKSBURG...DANVILLE...LEWISBURG AND BLUEFIELD.
(CLIMATE SECTION LISTED FOR REFERENCE AND ALSO NOTE THAT THE FROST
AND FREEZE PROGRAM HAS NOT BEGUN FOR OUR FORECAST AREA.)

AS THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS SOUTHEAST...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL LIMIT HEATING.
PLAYED HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO COOLER ADJMET VALUES FROM THE
THE LOWER 40S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM EDT SATURDAY...

EXPECT A FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY WITH MAINLY A THREAT OF SHOWERS. SOME COLDER AIR WILL
SNEAK IN ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS AND COULD PRODUCE SNOW...BUT NOTHING
OF SIGNIFICANCE.

ONCE THIS FRONT PASSES THE FLOW ALOFT STAYS A GENERAL WNW PATTERN.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ARRIVES BY TUESDAY ALTHOUGH MAIN MOISTURE WILL
STAY NORTH OF US. EXPECT MODERATING TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD WITH
LOWS AND HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...

MODELS VARY IN TERMS OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING TOWARD OUR
AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. BOTH 00Z/12Z ECMWF SHOW MORE
AMPLIFICATION WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF TX
WEDNESDAY WHICH IN A SPLIT FLOW APPEARS TO TAKE ON MORE NEGATIVE
TILT HEADING INTO THURSDAY OVER THE TN VALLEY. HPC APPEARS TO BE
LEANING TOWARD A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS/ENSEMBLE APPROACH. THIS
WILL DICTATE WHEN RAIN MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA.

BEFORE THIS SYSTEM...SFC HIGH SHOULD WEDGE SWD BRIEFLY WEDNESDAY
WITH SEASONABLY MILD DAY ON TAP. THIS HIGH DEPARTS THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST THURSDAY MORNING...WITH SURGE OF MOISTURE PUSHING NWD ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE PER SE FLOW. AT THIS TIME...THINK WILL SEE DRIER AIR
WITH LIMITED THREAT OF RAIN WED NIGHT BUT EXPECT AIRMASS TO MOISTEN
MORE INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH MAIN LIFT STAYING WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS. STILL LOOKING AT THE CHANCE OF RAIN FROM ALONG AND WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH POSSIBLY EWD EXTENT INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA
PER FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC EARLY ON BEFORE VEERING WINDS TURN MORE SW.

HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE MILD BUT COULD BE COOLER PER MORE CLOUDS AND
RAIN CHANCES. IF THE HIGH SLOWS DOWN OR SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH...THUS
ALLOWING LONGER EASTERLY FETCH...THEN TEMPS COULD BE 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER OUT EAST....BUT STILL JUST NEAR NORMAL.

AS WE HEAD INTO THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY THE FORECAST VARIES...THOUGH
THE NEW 12Z ECMWF SHOWS SIMILAR SETUP THAT THE 12Z GFS DOES WITH
FRONT ORIENTATION SETTING UP IN AN EAST-WEST FASHION WITH PARALLEL
FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS GOING TO KEEP THE AREA IN A UNSETTLED PATTERN
WITH NEXT MAIN LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY ARRIVING OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE
DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS IS THAT THE ECMWF SHOWS A STRONGER LOW
MOVING MORE NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE GFS HAS WEAKER
LOW MOVING ACROSS WV INTO NRN VA. THE ECMWF SOLUTION AS SUCH HAS
LESS QPF THAN THE GFS. NONETHELESS THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE COLD
THOUGH THE ECWMF IS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED AND COLDER THAN THE GFS.
COULD SEE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MTNS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 650 PM EDT SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
ONGOING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND
BECOME LIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN
TURN MORE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO
THE SOUTH WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO BETWEEN 8-15 KNOTS LATER IN
THE DAY.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY POSSIBLY BRINGING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS
ALONG WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS. THERE IS ALSO
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY AS ANOTHER CLIPPER SLIDES ACROSS FROM THE NORTHWEST.
OTHERWISE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN MAINLY VFR TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY LINGERING MOUNTAIN UPSLOPE DRIVEN MVFR
CIGS ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL AGAIN INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER
COLD FRONT THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR
MOST TAF SITES BY THEN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 455 AM EDT FRIDAY...

RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 29:

ROANOKE......19 IN 1982
BLACKSBURG...17 IN 2001
LYNCHBURG....23 IN 1923 AND 1982
DANVILLE.....23 IN 1966
BLUEFIELD....19 IN 1966 AND 1982
LEWISBURG....18 IN 1983

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/KK
NEAR TERM...JH/KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/JH/KK
CLIMATE...AMS/SK



000
FXUS61 KRNK 290119
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
919 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT BEFORE SLIDING TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ON SUNDAY WILL MOVE EAST AND
CROSS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FINALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 855 PM EDT SATURDAY...

MAIN UPDATE TO ADJUST LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT GIVEN AN ARID PWAT OF
.07 OFF THE EVENING RNK SOUNDING AND VERY LOW DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY DAYBREAK. THIS
RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW JUST ENOUGH DECOUPLING ESPCLY VALLEYS UNDER
CLEAR SKIES TO SEND MOST LOWS INTO THE TEENS WEST WITH A FEW
SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE. BREEZE MAY STAY UP JUST LONG ENOUGH TO
KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT IN THE EAST BUT STILL UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S PIEDMONT. THUS CUTTING LOWS A CAT OR TWO IN THE WESTERN
VALLEYS AND A FEW DEGREES IN SPOTS OVER THE EAST. OTHERWISE ONLY
SMALL CHANGES TO REDUCE WINDS A BIT MORE LATER TONIGHT ESPCLY
UNDER THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AROUND DAYBREAK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 240 PM EDT SATURDAY...

1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BUILD SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. PATCHY LOW STRATO CU WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET.

UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...WINDS WILL DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT AND WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS...THE DRY AIR MASS WILL
RESULT IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. RECORD
LOWS TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING IN
LYNCHBURG...BLACKSBURG...DANVILLE...LEWISBURG AND BLUEFIELD.
(CLIMATE SECTION LISTED FOR REFERENCE AND ALSO NOTE THAT THE FROST
AND FREEZE PROGRAM HAS NOT BEGUN FOR OUR FORECAST AREA.)

AS THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS SOUTHEAST...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL LIMIT HEATING.
PLAYED HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO COOLER ADJMET VALUES FROM THE
THE LOWER 40S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM EDT SATURDAY...

EXPECT A FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY WITH MAINLY A THREAT OF SHOWERS. SOME COLDER AIR WILL
SNEAK IN ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS AND COULD PRODUCE SNOW...BUT NOTHING
OF SIGNIFICANCE.

ONCE THIS FRONT PASSES THE FLOW ALOFT STAYS A GENERAL WNW PATTERN.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ARRIVES BY TUESDAY ALTHOUGH MAIN MOISTURE WILL
STAY NORTH OF US. EXPECT MODERATING TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD WITH
LOWS AND HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...

MODELS VARY IN TERMS OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING TOWARD OUR
AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. BOTH 00Z/12Z ECMWF SHOW MORE
AMPLIFICATION WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF TX
WEDNESDAY WHICH IN A SPLIT FLOW APPEARS TO TAKE ON MORE NEGATIVE
TILT HEADING INTO THURSDAY OVER THE TN VALLEY. HPC APPEARS TO BE
LEANING TOWARD A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS/ENSEMBLE APPROACH. THIS
WILL DICTATE WHEN RAIN MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA.

BEFORE THIS SYSTEM...SFC HIGH SHOULD WEDGE SWD BRIEFLY WEDNESDAY
WITH SEASONABLY MILD DAY ON TAP. THIS HIGH DEPARTS THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST THURSDAY MORNING...WITH SURGE OF MOISTURE PUSHING NWD ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE PER SE FLOW. AT THIS TIME...THINK WILL SEE DRIER AIR
WITH LIMITED THREAT OF RAIN WED NIGHT BUT EXPECT AIRMASS TO MOISTEN
MORE INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH MAIN LIFT STAYING WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS. STILL LOOKING AT THE CHANCE OF RAIN FROM ALONG AND WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH POSSIBLY EWD EXTENT INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA
PER FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC EARLY ON BEFORE VEERING WINDS TURN MORE SW.

HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE MILD BUT COULD BE COOLER PER MORE CLOUDS AND
RAIN CHANCES. IF THE HIGH SLOWS DOWN OR SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH...THUS
ALLOWING LONGER EASTERLY FETCH...THEN TEMPS COULD BE 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER OUT EAST....BUT STILL JUST NEAR NORMAL.

AS WE HEAD INTO THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY THE FORECAST VARIES...THOUGH
THE NEW 12Z ECMWF SHOWS SIMILAR SETUP THAT THE 12Z GFS DOES WITH
FRONT ORIENTATION SETTING UP IN AN EAST-WEST FASHION WITH PARALLEL
FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS GOING TO KEEP THE AREA IN A UNSETTLED PATTERN
WITH NEXT MAIN LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY ARRIVING OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE
DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS IS THAT THE ECMWF SHOWS A STRONGER LOW
MOVING MORE NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE GFS HAS WEAKER
LOW MOVING ACROSS WV INTO NRN VA. THE ECMWF SOLUTION AS SUCH HAS
LESS QPF THAN THE GFS. NONETHELESS THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE COLD
THOUGH THE ECWMF IS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED AND COLDER THAN THE GFS.
COULD SEE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MTNS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 650 PM EDT SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
ONGOING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND
BECOME LIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN
TURN MORE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO
THE SOUTH WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO BETWEEN 8-15 KNOTS LATER IN
THE DAY.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY POSSIBLY BRINGING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS
ALONG WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS. THERE IS ALSO
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY AS ANOTHER CLIPPER SLIDES ACROSS FROM THE NORTHWEST.
OTHERWISE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN MAINLY VFR TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY LINGERING MOUNTAIN UPSLOPE DRIVEN MVFR
CIGS ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL AGAIN INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER
COLD FRONT THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR
MOST TAF SITES BY THEN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 455 AM EDT FRIDAY...

RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 29:

ROANOKE......19 IN 1982
BLACKSBURG...17 IN 2001
LYNCHBURG....23 IN 1923 AND 1982
DANVILLE.....23 IN 1966
BLUEFIELD....19 IN 1966 AND 1982
LEWISBURG....18 IN 1983

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/KK
NEAR TERM...JH/KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/JH/KK
CLIMATE...AMS/SK




000
FXUS61 KRNK 290119
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
919 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT BEFORE SLIDING TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ON SUNDAY WILL MOVE EAST AND
CROSS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FINALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 855 PM EDT SATURDAY...

MAIN UPDATE TO ADJUST LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT GIVEN AN ARID PWAT OF
.07 OFF THE EVENING RNK SOUNDING AND VERY LOW DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY DAYBREAK. THIS
RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW JUST ENOUGH DECOUPLING ESPCLY VALLEYS UNDER
CLEAR SKIES TO SEND MOST LOWS INTO THE TEENS WEST WITH A FEW
SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE. BREEZE MAY STAY UP JUST LONG ENOUGH TO
KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT IN THE EAST BUT STILL UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S PIEDMONT. THUS CUTTING LOWS A CAT OR TWO IN THE WESTERN
VALLEYS AND A FEW DEGREES IN SPOTS OVER THE EAST. OTHERWISE ONLY
SMALL CHANGES TO REDUCE WINDS A BIT MORE LATER TONIGHT ESPCLY
UNDER THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AROUND DAYBREAK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 240 PM EDT SATURDAY...

1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BUILD SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. PATCHY LOW STRATO CU WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET.

UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...WINDS WILL DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT AND WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS...THE DRY AIR MASS WILL
RESULT IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. RECORD
LOWS TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING IN
LYNCHBURG...BLACKSBURG...DANVILLE...LEWISBURG AND BLUEFIELD.
(CLIMATE SECTION LISTED FOR REFERENCE AND ALSO NOTE THAT THE FROST
AND FREEZE PROGRAM HAS NOT BEGUN FOR OUR FORECAST AREA.)

AS THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS SOUTHEAST...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL LIMIT HEATING.
PLAYED HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO COOLER ADJMET VALUES FROM THE
THE LOWER 40S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM EDT SATURDAY...

EXPECT A FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY WITH MAINLY A THREAT OF SHOWERS. SOME COLDER AIR WILL
SNEAK IN ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS AND COULD PRODUCE SNOW...BUT NOTHING
OF SIGNIFICANCE.

ONCE THIS FRONT PASSES THE FLOW ALOFT STAYS A GENERAL WNW PATTERN.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ARRIVES BY TUESDAY ALTHOUGH MAIN MOISTURE WILL
STAY NORTH OF US. EXPECT MODERATING TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD WITH
LOWS AND HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...

MODELS VARY IN TERMS OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING TOWARD OUR
AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. BOTH 00Z/12Z ECMWF SHOW MORE
AMPLIFICATION WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF TX
WEDNESDAY WHICH IN A SPLIT FLOW APPEARS TO TAKE ON MORE NEGATIVE
TILT HEADING INTO THURSDAY OVER THE TN VALLEY. HPC APPEARS TO BE
LEANING TOWARD A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS/ENSEMBLE APPROACH. THIS
WILL DICTATE WHEN RAIN MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA.

BEFORE THIS SYSTEM...SFC HIGH SHOULD WEDGE SWD BRIEFLY WEDNESDAY
WITH SEASONABLY MILD DAY ON TAP. THIS HIGH DEPARTS THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST THURSDAY MORNING...WITH SURGE OF MOISTURE PUSHING NWD ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE PER SE FLOW. AT THIS TIME...THINK WILL SEE DRIER AIR
WITH LIMITED THREAT OF RAIN WED NIGHT BUT EXPECT AIRMASS TO MOISTEN
MORE INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH MAIN LIFT STAYING WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS. STILL LOOKING AT THE CHANCE OF RAIN FROM ALONG AND WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH POSSIBLY EWD EXTENT INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA
PER FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC EARLY ON BEFORE VEERING WINDS TURN MORE SW.

HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE MILD BUT COULD BE COOLER PER MORE CLOUDS AND
RAIN CHANCES. IF THE HIGH SLOWS DOWN OR SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH...THUS
ALLOWING LONGER EASTERLY FETCH...THEN TEMPS COULD BE 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER OUT EAST....BUT STILL JUST NEAR NORMAL.

AS WE HEAD INTO THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY THE FORECAST VARIES...THOUGH
THE NEW 12Z ECMWF SHOWS SIMILAR SETUP THAT THE 12Z GFS DOES WITH
FRONT ORIENTATION SETTING UP IN AN EAST-WEST FASHION WITH PARALLEL
FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS GOING TO KEEP THE AREA IN A UNSETTLED PATTERN
WITH NEXT MAIN LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY ARRIVING OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE
DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS IS THAT THE ECMWF SHOWS A STRONGER LOW
MOVING MORE NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE GFS HAS WEAKER
LOW MOVING ACROSS WV INTO NRN VA. THE ECMWF SOLUTION AS SUCH HAS
LESS QPF THAN THE GFS. NONETHELESS THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE COLD
THOUGH THE ECWMF IS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED AND COLDER THAN THE GFS.
COULD SEE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MTNS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 650 PM EDT SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
ONGOING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND
BECOME LIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN
TURN MORE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO
THE SOUTH WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO BETWEEN 8-15 KNOTS LATER IN
THE DAY.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY POSSIBLY BRINGING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS
ALONG WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS. THERE IS ALSO
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY AS ANOTHER CLIPPER SLIDES ACROSS FROM THE NORTHWEST.
OTHERWISE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN MAINLY VFR TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY LINGERING MOUNTAIN UPSLOPE DRIVEN MVFR
CIGS ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL AGAIN INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER
COLD FRONT THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR
MOST TAF SITES BY THEN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 455 AM EDT FRIDAY...

RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 29:

ROANOKE......19 IN 1982
BLACKSBURG...17 IN 2001
LYNCHBURG....23 IN 1923 AND 1982
DANVILLE.....23 IN 1966
BLUEFIELD....19 IN 1966 AND 1982
LEWISBURG....18 IN 1983

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/KK
NEAR TERM...JH/KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/JH/KK
CLIMATE...AMS/SK




000
FXUS61 KRNK 290119
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
919 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT BEFORE SLIDING TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ON SUNDAY WILL MOVE EAST AND
CROSS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FINALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 855 PM EDT SATURDAY...

MAIN UPDATE TO ADJUST LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT GIVEN AN ARID PWAT OF
.07 OFF THE EVENING RNK SOUNDING AND VERY LOW DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY DAYBREAK. THIS
RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW JUST ENOUGH DECOUPLING ESPCLY VALLEYS UNDER
CLEAR SKIES TO SEND MOST LOWS INTO THE TEENS WEST WITH A FEW
SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE. BREEZE MAY STAY UP JUST LONG ENOUGH TO
KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT IN THE EAST BUT STILL UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S PIEDMONT. THUS CUTTING LOWS A CAT OR TWO IN THE WESTERN
VALLEYS AND A FEW DEGREES IN SPOTS OVER THE EAST. OTHERWISE ONLY
SMALL CHANGES TO REDUCE WINDS A BIT MORE LATER TONIGHT ESPCLY
UNDER THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AROUND DAYBREAK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 240 PM EDT SATURDAY...

1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BUILD SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. PATCHY LOW STRATO CU WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET.

UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...WINDS WILL DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT AND WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS...THE DRY AIR MASS WILL
RESULT IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. RECORD
LOWS TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING IN
LYNCHBURG...BLACKSBURG...DANVILLE...LEWISBURG AND BLUEFIELD.
(CLIMATE SECTION LISTED FOR REFERENCE AND ALSO NOTE THAT THE FROST
AND FREEZE PROGRAM HAS NOT BEGUN FOR OUR FORECAST AREA.)

AS THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS SOUTHEAST...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL LIMIT HEATING.
PLAYED HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO COOLER ADJMET VALUES FROM THE
THE LOWER 40S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM EDT SATURDAY...

EXPECT A FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY WITH MAINLY A THREAT OF SHOWERS. SOME COLDER AIR WILL
SNEAK IN ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS AND COULD PRODUCE SNOW...BUT NOTHING
OF SIGNIFICANCE.

ONCE THIS FRONT PASSES THE FLOW ALOFT STAYS A GENERAL WNW PATTERN.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ARRIVES BY TUESDAY ALTHOUGH MAIN MOISTURE WILL
STAY NORTH OF US. EXPECT MODERATING TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD WITH
LOWS AND HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...

MODELS VARY IN TERMS OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING TOWARD OUR
AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. BOTH 00Z/12Z ECMWF SHOW MORE
AMPLIFICATION WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF TX
WEDNESDAY WHICH IN A SPLIT FLOW APPEARS TO TAKE ON MORE NEGATIVE
TILT HEADING INTO THURSDAY OVER THE TN VALLEY. HPC APPEARS TO BE
LEANING TOWARD A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS/ENSEMBLE APPROACH. THIS
WILL DICTATE WHEN RAIN MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA.

BEFORE THIS SYSTEM...SFC HIGH SHOULD WEDGE SWD BRIEFLY WEDNESDAY
WITH SEASONABLY MILD DAY ON TAP. THIS HIGH DEPARTS THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST THURSDAY MORNING...WITH SURGE OF MOISTURE PUSHING NWD ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE PER SE FLOW. AT THIS TIME...THINK WILL SEE DRIER AIR
WITH LIMITED THREAT OF RAIN WED NIGHT BUT EXPECT AIRMASS TO MOISTEN
MORE INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH MAIN LIFT STAYING WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS. STILL LOOKING AT THE CHANCE OF RAIN FROM ALONG AND WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH POSSIBLY EWD EXTENT INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA
PER FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC EARLY ON BEFORE VEERING WINDS TURN MORE SW.

HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE MILD BUT COULD BE COOLER PER MORE CLOUDS AND
RAIN CHANCES. IF THE HIGH SLOWS DOWN OR SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH...THUS
ALLOWING LONGER EASTERLY FETCH...THEN TEMPS COULD BE 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER OUT EAST....BUT STILL JUST NEAR NORMAL.

AS WE HEAD INTO THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY THE FORECAST VARIES...THOUGH
THE NEW 12Z ECMWF SHOWS SIMILAR SETUP THAT THE 12Z GFS DOES WITH
FRONT ORIENTATION SETTING UP IN AN EAST-WEST FASHION WITH PARALLEL
FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS GOING TO KEEP THE AREA IN A UNSETTLED PATTERN
WITH NEXT MAIN LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY ARRIVING OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE
DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS IS THAT THE ECMWF SHOWS A STRONGER LOW
MOVING MORE NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE GFS HAS WEAKER
LOW MOVING ACROSS WV INTO NRN VA. THE ECMWF SOLUTION AS SUCH HAS
LESS QPF THAN THE GFS. NONETHELESS THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE COLD
THOUGH THE ECWMF IS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED AND COLDER THAN THE GFS.
COULD SEE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MTNS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 650 PM EDT SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
ONGOING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND
BECOME LIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN
TURN MORE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO
THE SOUTH WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO BETWEEN 8-15 KNOTS LATER IN
THE DAY.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY POSSIBLY BRINGING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS
ALONG WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS. THERE IS ALSO
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY AS ANOTHER CLIPPER SLIDES ACROSS FROM THE NORTHWEST.
OTHERWISE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN MAINLY VFR TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY LINGERING MOUNTAIN UPSLOPE DRIVEN MVFR
CIGS ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL AGAIN INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER
COLD FRONT THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR
MOST TAF SITES BY THEN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 455 AM EDT FRIDAY...

RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 29:

ROANOKE......19 IN 1982
BLACKSBURG...17 IN 2001
LYNCHBURG....23 IN 1923 AND 1982
DANVILLE.....23 IN 1966
BLUEFIELD....19 IN 1966 AND 1982
LEWISBURG....18 IN 1983

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/KK
NEAR TERM...JH/KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/JH/KK
CLIMATE...AMS/SK




000
FXUS61 KRNK 290119
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
919 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT BEFORE SLIDING TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ON SUNDAY WILL MOVE EAST AND
CROSS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FINALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 855 PM EDT SATURDAY...

MAIN UPDATE TO ADJUST LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT GIVEN AN ARID PWAT OF
.07 OFF THE EVENING RNK SOUNDING AND VERY LOW DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY DAYBREAK. THIS
RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW JUST ENOUGH DECOUPLING ESPCLY VALLEYS UNDER
CLEAR SKIES TO SEND MOST LOWS INTO THE TEENS WEST WITH A FEW
SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE. BREEZE MAY STAY UP JUST LONG ENOUGH TO
KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT IN THE EAST BUT STILL UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S PIEDMONT. THUS CUTTING LOWS A CAT OR TWO IN THE WESTERN
VALLEYS AND A FEW DEGREES IN SPOTS OVER THE EAST. OTHERWISE ONLY
SMALL CHANGES TO REDUCE WINDS A BIT MORE LATER TONIGHT ESPCLY
UNDER THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AROUND DAYBREAK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 240 PM EDT SATURDAY...

1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BUILD SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. PATCHY LOW STRATO CU WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET.

UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...WINDS WILL DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT AND WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS...THE DRY AIR MASS WILL
RESULT IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. RECORD
LOWS TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING IN
LYNCHBURG...BLACKSBURG...DANVILLE...LEWISBURG AND BLUEFIELD.
(CLIMATE SECTION LISTED FOR REFERENCE AND ALSO NOTE THAT THE FROST
AND FREEZE PROGRAM HAS NOT BEGUN FOR OUR FORECAST AREA.)

AS THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS SOUTHEAST...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL LIMIT HEATING.
PLAYED HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO COOLER ADJMET VALUES FROM THE
THE LOWER 40S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM EDT SATURDAY...

EXPECT A FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY WITH MAINLY A THREAT OF SHOWERS. SOME COLDER AIR WILL
SNEAK IN ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS AND COULD PRODUCE SNOW...BUT NOTHING
OF SIGNIFICANCE.

ONCE THIS FRONT PASSES THE FLOW ALOFT STAYS A GENERAL WNW PATTERN.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ARRIVES BY TUESDAY ALTHOUGH MAIN MOISTURE WILL
STAY NORTH OF US. EXPECT MODERATING TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD WITH
LOWS AND HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...

MODELS VARY IN TERMS OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING TOWARD OUR
AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. BOTH 00Z/12Z ECMWF SHOW MORE
AMPLIFICATION WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF TX
WEDNESDAY WHICH IN A SPLIT FLOW APPEARS TO TAKE ON MORE NEGATIVE
TILT HEADING INTO THURSDAY OVER THE TN VALLEY. HPC APPEARS TO BE
LEANING TOWARD A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS/ENSEMBLE APPROACH. THIS
WILL DICTATE WHEN RAIN MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA.

BEFORE THIS SYSTEM...SFC HIGH SHOULD WEDGE SWD BRIEFLY WEDNESDAY
WITH SEASONABLY MILD DAY ON TAP. THIS HIGH DEPARTS THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST THURSDAY MORNING...WITH SURGE OF MOISTURE PUSHING NWD ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE PER SE FLOW. AT THIS TIME...THINK WILL SEE DRIER AIR
WITH LIMITED THREAT OF RAIN WED NIGHT BUT EXPECT AIRMASS TO MOISTEN
MORE INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH MAIN LIFT STAYING WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS. STILL LOOKING AT THE CHANCE OF RAIN FROM ALONG AND WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH POSSIBLY EWD EXTENT INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA
PER FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC EARLY ON BEFORE VEERING WINDS TURN MORE SW.

HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE MILD BUT COULD BE COOLER PER MORE CLOUDS AND
RAIN CHANCES. IF THE HIGH SLOWS DOWN OR SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH...THUS
ALLOWING LONGER EASTERLY FETCH...THEN TEMPS COULD BE 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER OUT EAST....BUT STILL JUST NEAR NORMAL.

AS WE HEAD INTO THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY THE FORECAST VARIES...THOUGH
THE NEW 12Z ECMWF SHOWS SIMILAR SETUP THAT THE 12Z GFS DOES WITH
FRONT ORIENTATION SETTING UP IN AN EAST-WEST FASHION WITH PARALLEL
FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS GOING TO KEEP THE AREA IN A UNSETTLED PATTERN
WITH NEXT MAIN LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY ARRIVING OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE
DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS IS THAT THE ECMWF SHOWS A STRONGER LOW
MOVING MORE NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE GFS HAS WEAKER
LOW MOVING ACROSS WV INTO NRN VA. THE ECMWF SOLUTION AS SUCH HAS
LESS QPF THAN THE GFS. NONETHELESS THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE COLD
THOUGH THE ECWMF IS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED AND COLDER THAN THE GFS.
COULD SEE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MTNS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 650 PM EDT SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
ONGOING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND
BECOME LIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN
TURN MORE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO
THE SOUTH WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO BETWEEN 8-15 KNOTS LATER IN
THE DAY.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY POSSIBLY BRINGING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS
ALONG WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS. THERE IS ALSO
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY AS ANOTHER CLIPPER SLIDES ACROSS FROM THE NORTHWEST.
OTHERWISE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN MAINLY VFR TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY LINGERING MOUNTAIN UPSLOPE DRIVEN MVFR
CIGS ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL AGAIN INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER
COLD FRONT THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR
MOST TAF SITES BY THEN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 455 AM EDT FRIDAY...

RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 29:

ROANOKE......19 IN 1982
BLACKSBURG...17 IN 2001
LYNCHBURG....23 IN 1923 AND 1982
DANVILLE.....23 IN 1966
BLUEFIELD....19 IN 1966 AND 1982
LEWISBURG....18 IN 1983

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/KK
NEAR TERM...JH/KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/JH/KK
CLIMATE...AMS/SK




000
FXUS61 KRNK 290119
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
919 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT BEFORE SLIDING TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ON SUNDAY WILL MOVE EAST AND
CROSS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FINALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 855 PM EDT SATURDAY...

MAIN UPDATE TO ADJUST LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT GIVEN AN ARID PWAT OF
.07 OFF THE EVENING RNK SOUNDING AND VERY LOW DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY DAYBREAK. THIS
RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW JUST ENOUGH DECOUPLING ESPCLY VALLEYS UNDER
CLEAR SKIES TO SEND MOST LOWS INTO THE TEENS WEST WITH A FEW
SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE. BREEZE MAY STAY UP JUST LONG ENOUGH TO
KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT IN THE EAST BUT STILL UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S PIEDMONT. THUS CUTTING LOWS A CAT OR TWO IN THE WESTERN
VALLEYS AND A FEW DEGREES IN SPOTS OVER THE EAST. OTHERWISE ONLY
SMALL CHANGES TO REDUCE WINDS A BIT MORE LATER TONIGHT ESPCLY
UNDER THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AROUND DAYBREAK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 240 PM EDT SATURDAY...

1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BUILD SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. PATCHY LOW STRATO CU WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET.

UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...WINDS WILL DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT AND WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS...THE DRY AIR MASS WILL
RESULT IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. RECORD
LOWS TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING IN
LYNCHBURG...BLACKSBURG...DANVILLE...LEWISBURG AND BLUEFIELD.
(CLIMATE SECTION LISTED FOR REFERENCE AND ALSO NOTE THAT THE FROST
AND FREEZE PROGRAM HAS NOT BEGUN FOR OUR FORECAST AREA.)

AS THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS SOUTHEAST...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL LIMIT HEATING.
PLAYED HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO COOLER ADJMET VALUES FROM THE
THE LOWER 40S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM EDT SATURDAY...

EXPECT A FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY WITH MAINLY A THREAT OF SHOWERS. SOME COLDER AIR WILL
SNEAK IN ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS AND COULD PRODUCE SNOW...BUT NOTHING
OF SIGNIFICANCE.

ONCE THIS FRONT PASSES THE FLOW ALOFT STAYS A GENERAL WNW PATTERN.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ARRIVES BY TUESDAY ALTHOUGH MAIN MOISTURE WILL
STAY NORTH OF US. EXPECT MODERATING TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD WITH
LOWS AND HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...

MODELS VARY IN TERMS OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING TOWARD OUR
AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. BOTH 00Z/12Z ECMWF SHOW MORE
AMPLIFICATION WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF TX
WEDNESDAY WHICH IN A SPLIT FLOW APPEARS TO TAKE ON MORE NEGATIVE
TILT HEADING INTO THURSDAY OVER THE TN VALLEY. HPC APPEARS TO BE
LEANING TOWARD A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS/ENSEMBLE APPROACH. THIS
WILL DICTATE WHEN RAIN MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA.

BEFORE THIS SYSTEM...SFC HIGH SHOULD WEDGE SWD BRIEFLY WEDNESDAY
WITH SEASONABLY MILD DAY ON TAP. THIS HIGH DEPARTS THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST THURSDAY MORNING...WITH SURGE OF MOISTURE PUSHING NWD ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE PER SE FLOW. AT THIS TIME...THINK WILL SEE DRIER AIR
WITH LIMITED THREAT OF RAIN WED NIGHT BUT EXPECT AIRMASS TO MOISTEN
MORE INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH MAIN LIFT STAYING WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS. STILL LOOKING AT THE CHANCE OF RAIN FROM ALONG AND WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH POSSIBLY EWD EXTENT INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA
PER FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC EARLY ON BEFORE VEERING WINDS TURN MORE SW.

HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE MILD BUT COULD BE COOLER PER MORE CLOUDS AND
RAIN CHANCES. IF THE HIGH SLOWS DOWN OR SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH...THUS
ALLOWING LONGER EASTERLY FETCH...THEN TEMPS COULD BE 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER OUT EAST....BUT STILL JUST NEAR NORMAL.

AS WE HEAD INTO THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY THE FORECAST VARIES...THOUGH
THE NEW 12Z ECMWF SHOWS SIMILAR SETUP THAT THE 12Z GFS DOES WITH
FRONT ORIENTATION SETTING UP IN AN EAST-WEST FASHION WITH PARALLEL
FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS GOING TO KEEP THE AREA IN A UNSETTLED PATTERN
WITH NEXT MAIN LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY ARRIVING OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE
DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS IS THAT THE ECMWF SHOWS A STRONGER LOW
MOVING MORE NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE GFS HAS WEAKER
LOW MOVING ACROSS WV INTO NRN VA. THE ECMWF SOLUTION AS SUCH HAS
LESS QPF THAN THE GFS. NONETHELESS THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE COLD
THOUGH THE ECWMF IS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED AND COLDER THAN THE GFS.
COULD SEE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MTNS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 650 PM EDT SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
ONGOING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND
BECOME LIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN
TURN MORE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO
THE SOUTH WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO BETWEEN 8-15 KNOTS LATER IN
THE DAY.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY POSSIBLY BRINGING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS
ALONG WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS. THERE IS ALSO
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY AS ANOTHER CLIPPER SLIDES ACROSS FROM THE NORTHWEST.
OTHERWISE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN MAINLY VFR TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY LINGERING MOUNTAIN UPSLOPE DRIVEN MVFR
CIGS ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL AGAIN INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER
COLD FRONT THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR
MOST TAF SITES BY THEN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 455 AM EDT FRIDAY...

RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 29:

ROANOKE......19 IN 1982
BLACKSBURG...17 IN 2001
LYNCHBURG....23 IN 1923 AND 1982
DANVILLE.....23 IN 1966
BLUEFIELD....19 IN 1966 AND 1982
LEWISBURG....18 IN 1983

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/KK
NEAR TERM...JH/KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/JH/KK
CLIMATE...AMS/SK




000
FXUS61 KLWX 290056
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
856 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ARRIVING ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING VORT MAX CENTERED OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL PA...SWINGING THROUGH AND OFFSHORE BY 06Z TONIGHT. DESPITE
FORCING ALOFT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY...SEEING SNOW SHOWERS DCRSNG IN COVERAGE OVER
NORTHEASTERN MD. HAVE MENTION OF FLURRIES STILL THRU 02Z THEN DRY
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

IN THE WAKE OF THE VORT...EXPECT MEAN LYR RH TO THIN...WHICH WHEN
FACTORED W/ LOSS OF DIURNAL CLDS AND NVA...CLDS SHUD RAPIDLY
DECREASE. STILL A DECENT P-GRAD SO WINDS SHUD BECOME LESS BUT WL
STILL BE A FACTOR. CONSIDERING IMPACT OF CAA AND CURRENT TEMPS...
WENT ON THE COOL SIDE OF MOS MEAN EVEN W/O GOOD DCPLG. THUS MIN-T IN
THE TEENS COMMONPLACE BLURDG WWD.

WL BE UNDER TRANSITORY SFC HIPRES SUNDAY W/ BLDG HGTS ALOFT. THAT
SHUD BE A FVRBL COMBO...MOSUN SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS. MOS MEAN NOT
FAR OFF FM PRVS FCST...SO A BLEND WAS TAKEN. MAXT MAY EXCEED 50F IN
OUR VA CNTYS...STILL MORE THAN 10 DEGF BLO AVG BUT 10+ DEGF WARMER
THAN TDA. IN ADDITION...WNDS ARND 5 KT WUD MEAN NOT MUCH OF A WIND
CHILL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER YET ANOTHER REMINDER WINTER HASN/T COMPLETELY LEFT...THE
START OF THE WORK WEEK WILL HAVE MORE OF A SPRING-LIKE REBOUND.
LOWS SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING WILL BE COLD...NEAR FREEZING IN
MOST AREAS BRIEFLY - AND ALSO STARTING OFF CLOUDY W/ AN UPPER WAVE
PASSAGE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF UPSLOPE PCPN...AND SOME LIGHT SNOW
AND/OR RAIN SHOWERS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SRN FRINGE OF THE AREA.
GOOD GUIDANCE AGREEMENT THAT THE APLCNS EFFICIENTLY DISPERSE MUCH
OF THE PCPN AS THE UPPER WAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT QUICKLY PASSES
OVERHEAD. SOME WEAK LLJ DYNAMICS AND SOME LIMITED THE WINDS WILL
THEN KICK-IN SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...LOW LEVEL - BUT INCREASING -
MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME PCPN DEVELOP ACROSS OUR SRN
FRINGE BRIEFLY EARLY MON. A LIGHT AND BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE
OVER SRN MD/DELMARVA BEFORE DAWN...THEN THIS ACTIVITY QUICKLY
MOVES OFF THE COAST.

IN ITS WAKE WILL BE CLEARING SKIES OVER THE AREA AND A BREEZY WLY
WIND THAT WILL KEEP THE HIGHER TERRAIN COOLER BUT THE DOWNSLOPING
EFFECT IN THE VLYS/LOWLANDS WILL HELP HIGH TEMPS REACH THE M-U50S BY
AFTN. WINDS WILL GUST IN THE 20-30KT RANGE ACROSS THE AREA...ESPEC
ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE AND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. NOT
ANTICIPATING WIND ADVISORY CONDS BUT IT COULD BE WARRANTED FOR
HIGHER TERRAIN. MON NIGHT...TEMPS WILL AGAIN DROP TOWARD THE
FREEZING MARK...EVEN W/ A RELATIVELY HIGHER DEWPOINT FIELD ACROSS
THE REGION.

AS WINDS DROP OFF FROM THE MONDAY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...TUE WILL
START OFF MUCH MORE CALM BUT STILL COLD. TEMPS WILL QUICKLY CLIMB
BACK THRU THE 40S AND 50S ON THE WAY TO HIGHS IN NEAR 60F BEFORE YET
ANOTHER UPPER WAVE PASSAGE. ODDLY THE 12Z VERSIONS OF THE EURO AND
GFS TRADED SOLUTIONS FROM THEIR 06Z RUNS. THE LATEST GFS TOOK THE
MINOR UPPER WAVE ELONGATED MORE LATITUDINALLY AND MADE IT THE
FURTHER NORTH COMPACT LOW SPREADING DIRECTLY OVER PA AND TOUCHING
OUR NRN FRINGE. THE 12Z EURO IS THE OPPOSITE. THEIR ALGORITHMS ALSO
MAKE A DECENT PERCENTAGE OF THE MODEL PCPN INTO SNOW...ESPEC OVER
THE NRN REACHES OF THE PCPN BATCH. THE TROUBLE W/ THE STRONGER OF
THE SOLUTIONS - WHICH WOULD BE THE POTENT AND MORE COMPACT SYSTEM TO
THE NORTH IS THAT IT WOULD ILLICIT A STRONGER WAA REGION OUT AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM. THE WARMER AIR ENTRAINED INTO THE PORTION OF THE
SYSTEM SPREADING ACROSS OUR REGION WOULD HAVE A LOWER POTENTIAL FOR
FROZEN PCPN W/ HIGHS REACHING THE 50S/L60S JUST AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM. NOT AN INTENSE TEMP PLUNGE EXPECTED W/ THIS FEATURE EITHER
WAY...W/ TEMPS DROPPING AT AN AVERAGE PACE INTO THE U30S/L40S. THE
ADVECTION PATTERN ALSO NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG ACCORDING TO THESE
SAME MODELS...WHICH KEEPS THE SFC WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGHOUT THIS
EPISODE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS COULD LINGER ALONG THE MASON DIXON REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY SOUTHWARD AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40...NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY
APRIL.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE
NEAR 60 TO THE MIDDLE 60S.

AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST COAST AND OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH
THE MIDDLE 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH 70
DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THURSDAY.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
BEFORE SLOWING DOWN AND DRAGGING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCAL ZONE OF
DEVELOPING RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO
LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MILD
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MIDDLE 60S FRIDAY.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY AS LATE AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT
AND PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING PROLONGED CHANCES OF RAIN
SHOWERS OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM. TIMING IS UNCERTAIN AS TO THIS
LOW`S DEVELOPMENT AND ITS LOCATION OR PROGRESS...NONETHELESS...THE
RAIN CHANCES LINGER ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THRU SUN. NW FLOW WITH GUSTS...ENDING 01-03Z
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT KBWI/KMTN. MIGHT BECOME MORE OCNL IN NATURE
OVERNIGHT BEFORE ENDING BY 12Z. LIGHT NW FLOW WILL SHIFT TO W
MIDDAY...THEN SW FOR TOMORROW EVENING.

DCRSNG CLOUDS TONIGHT...MAINLY MID LVL IF ANY. FEW HIGH LVL CLOUDS
PSBL DURING THE DAY SUN AHEAD OF NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

INCRSNG MID LVL CLOUDS SUN NIGHT AS PCPN APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. A FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU EARLY MON MRNG...W/
LITTLE IF ANY PCPN BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF OVC MID CLOUDS THAT
BREAK UP AND MOVE E QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. LOW LVL WINDS 35-45
KTS...WITH GUSTS 20-30 KTS AT THE SFC MONDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS...AND LIGHT WINDS MON NIGHT-TUE. MVFR CONDITIONS
PSBL AT KMTN AND KBWI TERMINALS TUES NIGHT WITH LINGERING PCPN.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TUESDAY NIGHT BECOMING NORTHWEST AND GUSTING TO
15 KNOTS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT ALL WATERS WITH 00Z OBS SHOWING GUSTS 20-25
KTS. SCA IS DROPPED UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC AT MIDNIGHT...UPPER
CHESAPEAKE BAY MIDDAY SUNDAY...AND THE REMAINING AREAS SUN AFTN.
THE SCA MAY END EARLIER FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
BAY...THOUGH WILL HOLD WITH TIMING FOR NOW.

SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN LATER SUN NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES OVER THE AREA EARLY MON MRNG. BEHIND THE FRONT...WEST
WINDS WILL AGAIN PICK UP INTO SOLID SCA RANGES AND POSSIBLE GALES
FOR THE DAYTIME HRS MON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT
INTO TUE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TUE...W/ A
PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE.

NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS MAY
GUST TO 15 KNOTS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A LATE SEASON SHOT OF COLD AIR IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE REGION.

IF TEMPERATURES DO NOT SPIKE ANY HIGHER THIS EVENING...DULLES
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (IAD) WILL BE ON TRACK TO BREAK A RECORD DAILY
LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE. THE RECORD DAILY LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE
FOR MARCH 28TH IS 39 DEGREES WHICH WAS SET IN 1996. SO FAR TODAY
THEY HAVE REACHED 37 DEGREES...WHICH WAS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
LOCAL STANDARD TIME LAST NIGHT.

SUNDAY MORNING (MARCH 29TH)...LOW TEMPERATURES MAY APPROACH RECORD
MINIMUM VALUES FOR THE DATE.

SITE...3/29 RECORD MIN T...FORECAST MIN T...
DCA......18 (1923)............28............
BWI......18 (1923)............21............
IAD......20 (1982)............19............

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ530>532-
     537>540-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ533-534-541-
     543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...SEARS/HTS
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...SEARS/GMS
MARINE...SEARS/GMS
CLIMATE...DFH



000
FXUS61 KLWX 290056
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
856 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ARRIVING ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING VORT MAX CENTERED OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL PA...SWINGING THROUGH AND OFFSHORE BY 06Z TONIGHT. DESPITE
FORCING ALOFT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY...SEEING SNOW SHOWERS DCRSNG IN COVERAGE OVER
NORTHEASTERN MD. HAVE MENTION OF FLURRIES STILL THRU 02Z THEN DRY
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

IN THE WAKE OF THE VORT...EXPECT MEAN LYR RH TO THIN...WHICH WHEN
FACTORED W/ LOSS OF DIURNAL CLDS AND NVA...CLDS SHUD RAPIDLY
DECREASE. STILL A DECENT P-GRAD SO WINDS SHUD BECOME LESS BUT WL
STILL BE A FACTOR. CONSIDERING IMPACT OF CAA AND CURRENT TEMPS...
WENT ON THE COOL SIDE OF MOS MEAN EVEN W/O GOOD DCPLG. THUS MIN-T IN
THE TEENS COMMONPLACE BLURDG WWD.

WL BE UNDER TRANSITORY SFC HIPRES SUNDAY W/ BLDG HGTS ALOFT. THAT
SHUD BE A FVRBL COMBO...MOSUN SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS. MOS MEAN NOT
FAR OFF FM PRVS FCST...SO A BLEND WAS TAKEN. MAXT MAY EXCEED 50F IN
OUR VA CNTYS...STILL MORE THAN 10 DEGF BLO AVG BUT 10+ DEGF WARMER
THAN TDA. IN ADDITION...WNDS ARND 5 KT WUD MEAN NOT MUCH OF A WIND
CHILL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER YET ANOTHER REMINDER WINTER HASN/T COMPLETELY LEFT...THE
START OF THE WORK WEEK WILL HAVE MORE OF A SPRING-LIKE REBOUND.
LOWS SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING WILL BE COLD...NEAR FREEZING IN
MOST AREAS BRIEFLY - AND ALSO STARTING OFF CLOUDY W/ AN UPPER WAVE
PASSAGE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF UPSLOPE PCPN...AND SOME LIGHT SNOW
AND/OR RAIN SHOWERS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SRN FRINGE OF THE AREA.
GOOD GUIDANCE AGREEMENT THAT THE APLCNS EFFICIENTLY DISPERSE MUCH
OF THE PCPN AS THE UPPER WAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT QUICKLY PASSES
OVERHEAD. SOME WEAK LLJ DYNAMICS AND SOME LIMITED THE WINDS WILL
THEN KICK-IN SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...LOW LEVEL - BUT INCREASING -
MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME PCPN DEVELOP ACROSS OUR SRN
FRINGE BRIEFLY EARLY MON. A LIGHT AND BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE
OVER SRN MD/DELMARVA BEFORE DAWN...THEN THIS ACTIVITY QUICKLY
MOVES OFF THE COAST.

IN ITS WAKE WILL BE CLEARING SKIES OVER THE AREA AND A BREEZY WLY
WIND THAT WILL KEEP THE HIGHER TERRAIN COOLER BUT THE DOWNSLOPING
EFFECT IN THE VLYS/LOWLANDS WILL HELP HIGH TEMPS REACH THE M-U50S BY
AFTN. WINDS WILL GUST IN THE 20-30KT RANGE ACROSS THE AREA...ESPEC
ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE AND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. NOT
ANTICIPATING WIND ADVISORY CONDS BUT IT COULD BE WARRANTED FOR
HIGHER TERRAIN. MON NIGHT...TEMPS WILL AGAIN DROP TOWARD THE
FREEZING MARK...EVEN W/ A RELATIVELY HIGHER DEWPOINT FIELD ACROSS
THE REGION.

AS WINDS DROP OFF FROM THE MONDAY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...TUE WILL
START OFF MUCH MORE CALM BUT STILL COLD. TEMPS WILL QUICKLY CLIMB
BACK THRU THE 40S AND 50S ON THE WAY TO HIGHS IN NEAR 60F BEFORE YET
ANOTHER UPPER WAVE PASSAGE. ODDLY THE 12Z VERSIONS OF THE EURO AND
GFS TRADED SOLUTIONS FROM THEIR 06Z RUNS. THE LATEST GFS TOOK THE
MINOR UPPER WAVE ELONGATED MORE LATITUDINALLY AND MADE IT THE
FURTHER NORTH COMPACT LOW SPREADING DIRECTLY OVER PA AND TOUCHING
OUR NRN FRINGE. THE 12Z EURO IS THE OPPOSITE. THEIR ALGORITHMS ALSO
MAKE A DECENT PERCENTAGE OF THE MODEL PCPN INTO SNOW...ESPEC OVER
THE NRN REACHES OF THE PCPN BATCH. THE TROUBLE W/ THE STRONGER OF
THE SOLUTIONS - WHICH WOULD BE THE POTENT AND MORE COMPACT SYSTEM TO
THE NORTH IS THAT IT WOULD ILLICIT A STRONGER WAA REGION OUT AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM. THE WARMER AIR ENTRAINED INTO THE PORTION OF THE
SYSTEM SPREADING ACROSS OUR REGION WOULD HAVE A LOWER POTENTIAL FOR
FROZEN PCPN W/ HIGHS REACHING THE 50S/L60S JUST AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM. NOT AN INTENSE TEMP PLUNGE EXPECTED W/ THIS FEATURE EITHER
WAY...W/ TEMPS DROPPING AT AN AVERAGE PACE INTO THE U30S/L40S. THE
ADVECTION PATTERN ALSO NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG ACCORDING TO THESE
SAME MODELS...WHICH KEEPS THE SFC WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGHOUT THIS
EPISODE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS COULD LINGER ALONG THE MASON DIXON REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY SOUTHWARD AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40...NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY
APRIL.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE
NEAR 60 TO THE MIDDLE 60S.

AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST COAST AND OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH
THE MIDDLE 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH 70
DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THURSDAY.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
BEFORE SLOWING DOWN AND DRAGGING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCAL ZONE OF
DEVELOPING RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO
LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MILD
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MIDDLE 60S FRIDAY.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY AS LATE AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT
AND PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING PROLONGED CHANCES OF RAIN
SHOWERS OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM. TIMING IS UNCERTAIN AS TO THIS
LOW`S DEVELOPMENT AND ITS LOCATION OR PROGRESS...NONETHELESS...THE
RAIN CHANCES LINGER ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THRU SUN. NW FLOW WITH GUSTS...ENDING 01-03Z
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT KBWI/KMTN. MIGHT BECOME MORE OCNL IN NATURE
OVERNIGHT BEFORE ENDING BY 12Z. LIGHT NW FLOW WILL SHIFT TO W
MIDDAY...THEN SW FOR TOMORROW EVENING.

DCRSNG CLOUDS TONIGHT...MAINLY MID LVL IF ANY. FEW HIGH LVL CLOUDS
PSBL DURING THE DAY SUN AHEAD OF NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

INCRSNG MID LVL CLOUDS SUN NIGHT AS PCPN APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. A FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU EARLY MON MRNG...W/
LITTLE IF ANY PCPN BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF OVC MID CLOUDS THAT
BREAK UP AND MOVE E QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. LOW LVL WINDS 35-45
KTS...WITH GUSTS 20-30 KTS AT THE SFC MONDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS...AND LIGHT WINDS MON NIGHT-TUE. MVFR CONDITIONS
PSBL AT KMTN AND KBWI TERMINALS TUES NIGHT WITH LINGERING PCPN.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TUESDAY NIGHT BECOMING NORTHWEST AND GUSTING TO
15 KNOTS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT ALL WATERS WITH 00Z OBS SHOWING GUSTS 20-25
KTS. SCA IS DROPPED UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC AT MIDNIGHT...UPPER
CHESAPEAKE BAY MIDDAY SUNDAY...AND THE REMAINING AREAS SUN AFTN.
THE SCA MAY END EARLIER FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
BAY...THOUGH WILL HOLD WITH TIMING FOR NOW.

SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN LATER SUN NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES OVER THE AREA EARLY MON MRNG. BEHIND THE FRONT...WEST
WINDS WILL AGAIN PICK UP INTO SOLID SCA RANGES AND POSSIBLE GALES
FOR THE DAYTIME HRS MON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT
INTO TUE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TUE...W/ A
PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE.

NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS MAY
GUST TO 15 KNOTS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A LATE SEASON SHOT OF COLD AIR IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE REGION.

IF TEMPERATURES DO NOT SPIKE ANY HIGHER THIS EVENING...DULLES
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (IAD) WILL BE ON TRACK TO BREAK A RECORD DAILY
LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE. THE RECORD DAILY LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE
FOR MARCH 28TH IS 39 DEGREES WHICH WAS SET IN 1996. SO FAR TODAY
THEY HAVE REACHED 37 DEGREES...WHICH WAS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
LOCAL STANDARD TIME LAST NIGHT.

SUNDAY MORNING (MARCH 29TH)...LOW TEMPERATURES MAY APPROACH RECORD
MINIMUM VALUES FOR THE DATE.

SITE...3/29 RECORD MIN T...FORECAST MIN T...
DCA......18 (1923)............28............
BWI......18 (1923)............21............
IAD......20 (1982)............19............

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ530>532-
     537>540-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ533-534-541-
     543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...SEARS/HTS
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...SEARS/GMS
MARINE...SEARS/GMS
CLIMATE...DFH




000
FXUS61 KLWX 290056
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
856 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ARRIVING ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING VORT MAX CENTERED OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL PA...SWINGING THROUGH AND OFFSHORE BY 06Z TONIGHT. DESPITE
FORCING ALOFT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY...SEEING SNOW SHOWERS DCRSNG IN COVERAGE OVER
NORTHEASTERN MD. HAVE MENTION OF FLURRIES STILL THRU 02Z THEN DRY
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

IN THE WAKE OF THE VORT...EXPECT MEAN LYR RH TO THIN...WHICH WHEN
FACTORED W/ LOSS OF DIURNAL CLDS AND NVA...CLDS SHUD RAPIDLY
DECREASE. STILL A DECENT P-GRAD SO WINDS SHUD BECOME LESS BUT WL
STILL BE A FACTOR. CONSIDERING IMPACT OF CAA AND CURRENT TEMPS...
WENT ON THE COOL SIDE OF MOS MEAN EVEN W/O GOOD DCPLG. THUS MIN-T IN
THE TEENS COMMONPLACE BLURDG WWD.

WL BE UNDER TRANSITORY SFC HIPRES SUNDAY W/ BLDG HGTS ALOFT. THAT
SHUD BE A FVRBL COMBO...MOSUN SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS. MOS MEAN NOT
FAR OFF FM PRVS FCST...SO A BLEND WAS TAKEN. MAXT MAY EXCEED 50F IN
OUR VA CNTYS...STILL MORE THAN 10 DEGF BLO AVG BUT 10+ DEGF WARMER
THAN TDA. IN ADDITION...WNDS ARND 5 KT WUD MEAN NOT MUCH OF A WIND
CHILL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER YET ANOTHER REMINDER WINTER HASN/T COMPLETELY LEFT...THE
START OF THE WORK WEEK WILL HAVE MORE OF A SPRING-LIKE REBOUND.
LOWS SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING WILL BE COLD...NEAR FREEZING IN
MOST AREAS BRIEFLY - AND ALSO STARTING OFF CLOUDY W/ AN UPPER WAVE
PASSAGE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF UPSLOPE PCPN...AND SOME LIGHT SNOW
AND/OR RAIN SHOWERS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SRN FRINGE OF THE AREA.
GOOD GUIDANCE AGREEMENT THAT THE APLCNS EFFICIENTLY DISPERSE MUCH
OF THE PCPN AS THE UPPER WAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT QUICKLY PASSES
OVERHEAD. SOME WEAK LLJ DYNAMICS AND SOME LIMITED THE WINDS WILL
THEN KICK-IN SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...LOW LEVEL - BUT INCREASING -
MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME PCPN DEVELOP ACROSS OUR SRN
FRINGE BRIEFLY EARLY MON. A LIGHT AND BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE
OVER SRN MD/DELMARVA BEFORE DAWN...THEN THIS ACTIVITY QUICKLY
MOVES OFF THE COAST.

IN ITS WAKE WILL BE CLEARING SKIES OVER THE AREA AND A BREEZY WLY
WIND THAT WILL KEEP THE HIGHER TERRAIN COOLER BUT THE DOWNSLOPING
EFFECT IN THE VLYS/LOWLANDS WILL HELP HIGH TEMPS REACH THE M-U50S BY
AFTN. WINDS WILL GUST IN THE 20-30KT RANGE ACROSS THE AREA...ESPEC
ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE AND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. NOT
ANTICIPATING WIND ADVISORY CONDS BUT IT COULD BE WARRANTED FOR
HIGHER TERRAIN. MON NIGHT...TEMPS WILL AGAIN DROP TOWARD THE
FREEZING MARK...EVEN W/ A RELATIVELY HIGHER DEWPOINT FIELD ACROSS
THE REGION.

AS WINDS DROP OFF FROM THE MONDAY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...TUE WILL
START OFF MUCH MORE CALM BUT STILL COLD. TEMPS WILL QUICKLY CLIMB
BACK THRU THE 40S AND 50S ON THE WAY TO HIGHS IN NEAR 60F BEFORE YET
ANOTHER UPPER WAVE PASSAGE. ODDLY THE 12Z VERSIONS OF THE EURO AND
GFS TRADED SOLUTIONS FROM THEIR 06Z RUNS. THE LATEST GFS TOOK THE
MINOR UPPER WAVE ELONGATED MORE LATITUDINALLY AND MADE IT THE
FURTHER NORTH COMPACT LOW SPREADING DIRECTLY OVER PA AND TOUCHING
OUR NRN FRINGE. THE 12Z EURO IS THE OPPOSITE. THEIR ALGORITHMS ALSO
MAKE A DECENT PERCENTAGE OF THE MODEL PCPN INTO SNOW...ESPEC OVER
THE NRN REACHES OF THE PCPN BATCH. THE TROUBLE W/ THE STRONGER OF
THE SOLUTIONS - WHICH WOULD BE THE POTENT AND MORE COMPACT SYSTEM TO
THE NORTH IS THAT IT WOULD ILLICIT A STRONGER WAA REGION OUT AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM. THE WARMER AIR ENTRAINED INTO THE PORTION OF THE
SYSTEM SPREADING ACROSS OUR REGION WOULD HAVE A LOWER POTENTIAL FOR
FROZEN PCPN W/ HIGHS REACHING THE 50S/L60S JUST AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM. NOT AN INTENSE TEMP PLUNGE EXPECTED W/ THIS FEATURE EITHER
WAY...W/ TEMPS DROPPING AT AN AVERAGE PACE INTO THE U30S/L40S. THE
ADVECTION PATTERN ALSO NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG ACCORDING TO THESE
SAME MODELS...WHICH KEEPS THE SFC WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGHOUT THIS
EPISODE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS COULD LINGER ALONG THE MASON DIXON REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY SOUTHWARD AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40...NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY
APRIL.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE
NEAR 60 TO THE MIDDLE 60S.

AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST COAST AND OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH
THE MIDDLE 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH 70
DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THURSDAY.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
BEFORE SLOWING DOWN AND DRAGGING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCAL ZONE OF
DEVELOPING RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO
LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MILD
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MIDDLE 60S FRIDAY.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY AS LATE AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT
AND PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING PROLONGED CHANCES OF RAIN
SHOWERS OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM. TIMING IS UNCERTAIN AS TO THIS
LOW`S DEVELOPMENT AND ITS LOCATION OR PROGRESS...NONETHELESS...THE
RAIN CHANCES LINGER ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THRU SUN. NW FLOW WITH GUSTS...ENDING 01-03Z
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT KBWI/KMTN. MIGHT BECOME MORE OCNL IN NATURE
OVERNIGHT BEFORE ENDING BY 12Z. LIGHT NW FLOW WILL SHIFT TO W
MIDDAY...THEN SW FOR TOMORROW EVENING.

DCRSNG CLOUDS TONIGHT...MAINLY MID LVL IF ANY. FEW HIGH LVL CLOUDS
PSBL DURING THE DAY SUN AHEAD OF NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

INCRSNG MID LVL CLOUDS SUN NIGHT AS PCPN APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. A FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU EARLY MON MRNG...W/
LITTLE IF ANY PCPN BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF OVC MID CLOUDS THAT
BREAK UP AND MOVE E QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. LOW LVL WINDS 35-45
KTS...WITH GUSTS 20-30 KTS AT THE SFC MONDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS...AND LIGHT WINDS MON NIGHT-TUE. MVFR CONDITIONS
PSBL AT KMTN AND KBWI TERMINALS TUES NIGHT WITH LINGERING PCPN.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TUESDAY NIGHT BECOMING NORTHWEST AND GUSTING TO
15 KNOTS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT ALL WATERS WITH 00Z OBS SHOWING GUSTS 20-25
KTS. SCA IS DROPPED UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC AT MIDNIGHT...UPPER
CHESAPEAKE BAY MIDDAY SUNDAY...AND THE REMAINING AREAS SUN AFTN.
THE SCA MAY END EARLIER FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
BAY...THOUGH WILL HOLD WITH TIMING FOR NOW.

SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN LATER SUN NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES OVER THE AREA EARLY MON MRNG. BEHIND THE FRONT...WEST
WINDS WILL AGAIN PICK UP INTO SOLID SCA RANGES AND POSSIBLE GALES
FOR THE DAYTIME HRS MON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT
INTO TUE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TUE...W/ A
PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE.

NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS MAY
GUST TO 15 KNOTS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A LATE SEASON SHOT OF COLD AIR IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE REGION.

IF TEMPERATURES DO NOT SPIKE ANY HIGHER THIS EVENING...DULLES
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (IAD) WILL BE ON TRACK TO BREAK A RECORD DAILY
LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE. THE RECORD DAILY LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE
FOR MARCH 28TH IS 39 DEGREES WHICH WAS SET IN 1996. SO FAR TODAY
THEY HAVE REACHED 37 DEGREES...WHICH WAS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
LOCAL STANDARD TIME LAST NIGHT.

SUNDAY MORNING (MARCH 29TH)...LOW TEMPERATURES MAY APPROACH RECORD
MINIMUM VALUES FOR THE DATE.

SITE...3/29 RECORD MIN T...FORECAST MIN T...
DCA......18 (1923)............28............
BWI......18 (1923)............21............
IAD......20 (1982)............19............

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ530>532-
     537>540-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ533-534-541-
     543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...SEARS/HTS
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...SEARS/GMS
MARINE...SEARS/GMS
CLIMATE...DFH




000
FXUS61 KLWX 290056
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
856 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ARRIVING ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING VORT MAX CENTERED OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL PA...SWINGING THROUGH AND OFFSHORE BY 06Z TONIGHT. DESPITE
FORCING ALOFT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY...SEEING SNOW SHOWERS DCRSNG IN COVERAGE OVER
NORTHEASTERN MD. HAVE MENTION OF FLURRIES STILL THRU 02Z THEN DRY
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

IN THE WAKE OF THE VORT...EXPECT MEAN LYR RH TO THIN...WHICH WHEN
FACTORED W/ LOSS OF DIURNAL CLDS AND NVA...CLDS SHUD RAPIDLY
DECREASE. STILL A DECENT P-GRAD SO WINDS SHUD BECOME LESS BUT WL
STILL BE A FACTOR. CONSIDERING IMPACT OF CAA AND CURRENT TEMPS...
WENT ON THE COOL SIDE OF MOS MEAN EVEN W/O GOOD DCPLG. THUS MIN-T IN
THE TEENS COMMONPLACE BLURDG WWD.

WL BE UNDER TRANSITORY SFC HIPRES SUNDAY W/ BLDG HGTS ALOFT. THAT
SHUD BE A FVRBL COMBO...MOSUN SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS. MOS MEAN NOT
FAR OFF FM PRVS FCST...SO A BLEND WAS TAKEN. MAXT MAY EXCEED 50F IN
OUR VA CNTYS...STILL MORE THAN 10 DEGF BLO AVG BUT 10+ DEGF WARMER
THAN TDA. IN ADDITION...WNDS ARND 5 KT WUD MEAN NOT MUCH OF A WIND
CHILL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER YET ANOTHER REMINDER WINTER HASN/T COMPLETELY LEFT...THE
START OF THE WORK WEEK WILL HAVE MORE OF A SPRING-LIKE REBOUND.
LOWS SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING WILL BE COLD...NEAR FREEZING IN
MOST AREAS BRIEFLY - AND ALSO STARTING OFF CLOUDY W/ AN UPPER WAVE
PASSAGE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF UPSLOPE PCPN...AND SOME LIGHT SNOW
AND/OR RAIN SHOWERS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SRN FRINGE OF THE AREA.
GOOD GUIDANCE AGREEMENT THAT THE APLCNS EFFICIENTLY DISPERSE MUCH
OF THE PCPN AS THE UPPER WAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT QUICKLY PASSES
OVERHEAD. SOME WEAK LLJ DYNAMICS AND SOME LIMITED THE WINDS WILL
THEN KICK-IN SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...LOW LEVEL - BUT INCREASING -
MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME PCPN DEVELOP ACROSS OUR SRN
FRINGE BRIEFLY EARLY MON. A LIGHT AND BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE
OVER SRN MD/DELMARVA BEFORE DAWN...THEN THIS ACTIVITY QUICKLY
MOVES OFF THE COAST.

IN ITS WAKE WILL BE CLEARING SKIES OVER THE AREA AND A BREEZY WLY
WIND THAT WILL KEEP THE HIGHER TERRAIN COOLER BUT THE DOWNSLOPING
EFFECT IN THE VLYS/LOWLANDS WILL HELP HIGH TEMPS REACH THE M-U50S BY
AFTN. WINDS WILL GUST IN THE 20-30KT RANGE ACROSS THE AREA...ESPEC
ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE AND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. NOT
ANTICIPATING WIND ADVISORY CONDS BUT IT COULD BE WARRANTED FOR
HIGHER TERRAIN. MON NIGHT...TEMPS WILL AGAIN DROP TOWARD THE
FREEZING MARK...EVEN W/ A RELATIVELY HIGHER DEWPOINT FIELD ACROSS
THE REGION.

AS WINDS DROP OFF FROM THE MONDAY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...TUE WILL
START OFF MUCH MORE CALM BUT STILL COLD. TEMPS WILL QUICKLY CLIMB
BACK THRU THE 40S AND 50S ON THE WAY TO HIGHS IN NEAR 60F BEFORE YET
ANOTHER UPPER WAVE PASSAGE. ODDLY THE 12Z VERSIONS OF THE EURO AND
GFS TRADED SOLUTIONS FROM THEIR 06Z RUNS. THE LATEST GFS TOOK THE
MINOR UPPER WAVE ELONGATED MORE LATITUDINALLY AND MADE IT THE
FURTHER NORTH COMPACT LOW SPREADING DIRECTLY OVER PA AND TOUCHING
OUR NRN FRINGE. THE 12Z EURO IS THE OPPOSITE. THEIR ALGORITHMS ALSO
MAKE A DECENT PERCENTAGE OF THE MODEL PCPN INTO SNOW...ESPEC OVER
THE NRN REACHES OF THE PCPN BATCH. THE TROUBLE W/ THE STRONGER OF
THE SOLUTIONS - WHICH WOULD BE THE POTENT AND MORE COMPACT SYSTEM TO
THE NORTH IS THAT IT WOULD ILLICIT A STRONGER WAA REGION OUT AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM. THE WARMER AIR ENTRAINED INTO THE PORTION OF THE
SYSTEM SPREADING ACROSS OUR REGION WOULD HAVE A LOWER POTENTIAL FOR
FROZEN PCPN W/ HIGHS REACHING THE 50S/L60S JUST AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM. NOT AN INTENSE TEMP PLUNGE EXPECTED W/ THIS FEATURE EITHER
WAY...W/ TEMPS DROPPING AT AN AVERAGE PACE INTO THE U30S/L40S. THE
ADVECTION PATTERN ALSO NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG ACCORDING TO THESE
SAME MODELS...WHICH KEEPS THE SFC WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGHOUT THIS
EPISODE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS COULD LINGER ALONG THE MASON DIXON REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY SOUTHWARD AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40...NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY
APRIL.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE
NEAR 60 TO THE MIDDLE 60S.

AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST COAST AND OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH
THE MIDDLE 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH 70
DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THURSDAY.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
BEFORE SLOWING DOWN AND DRAGGING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCAL ZONE OF
DEVELOPING RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO
LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MILD
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MIDDLE 60S FRIDAY.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY AS LATE AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT
AND PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING PROLONGED CHANCES OF RAIN
SHOWERS OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM. TIMING IS UNCERTAIN AS TO THIS
LOW`S DEVELOPMENT AND ITS LOCATION OR PROGRESS...NONETHELESS...THE
RAIN CHANCES LINGER ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THRU SUN. NW FLOW WITH GUSTS...ENDING 01-03Z
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT KBWI/KMTN. MIGHT BECOME MORE OCNL IN NATURE
OVERNIGHT BEFORE ENDING BY 12Z. LIGHT NW FLOW WILL SHIFT TO W
MIDDAY...THEN SW FOR TOMORROW EVENING.

DCRSNG CLOUDS TONIGHT...MAINLY MID LVL IF ANY. FEW HIGH LVL CLOUDS
PSBL DURING THE DAY SUN AHEAD OF NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

INCRSNG MID LVL CLOUDS SUN NIGHT AS PCPN APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. A FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU EARLY MON MRNG...W/
LITTLE IF ANY PCPN BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF OVC MID CLOUDS THAT
BREAK UP AND MOVE E QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. LOW LVL WINDS 35-45
KTS...WITH GUSTS 20-30 KTS AT THE SFC MONDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS...AND LIGHT WINDS MON NIGHT-TUE. MVFR CONDITIONS
PSBL AT KMTN AND KBWI TERMINALS TUES NIGHT WITH LINGERING PCPN.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TUESDAY NIGHT BECOMING NORTHWEST AND GUSTING TO
15 KNOTS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT ALL WATERS WITH 00Z OBS SHOWING GUSTS 20-25
KTS. SCA IS DROPPED UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC AT MIDNIGHT...UPPER
CHESAPEAKE BAY MIDDAY SUNDAY...AND THE REMAINING AREAS SUN AFTN.
THE SCA MAY END EARLIER FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
BAY...THOUGH WILL HOLD WITH TIMING FOR NOW.

SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN LATER SUN NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES OVER THE AREA EARLY MON MRNG. BEHIND THE FRONT...WEST
WINDS WILL AGAIN PICK UP INTO SOLID SCA RANGES AND POSSIBLE GALES
FOR THE DAYTIME HRS MON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT
INTO TUE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TUE...W/ A
PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE.

NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS MAY
GUST TO 15 KNOTS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A LATE SEASON SHOT OF COLD AIR IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE REGION.

IF TEMPERATURES DO NOT SPIKE ANY HIGHER THIS EVENING...DULLES
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (IAD) WILL BE ON TRACK TO BREAK A RECORD DAILY
LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE. THE RECORD DAILY LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE
FOR MARCH 28TH IS 39 DEGREES WHICH WAS SET IN 1996. SO FAR TODAY
THEY HAVE REACHED 37 DEGREES...WHICH WAS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
LOCAL STANDARD TIME LAST NIGHT.

SUNDAY MORNING (MARCH 29TH)...LOW TEMPERATURES MAY APPROACH RECORD
MINIMUM VALUES FOR THE DATE.

SITE...3/29 RECORD MIN T...FORECAST MIN T...
DCA......18 (1923)............28............
BWI......18 (1923)............21............
IAD......20 (1982)............19............

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ530>532-
     537>540-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ533-534-541-
     543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...SEARS/HTS
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...SEARS/GMS
MARINE...SEARS/GMS
CLIMATE...DFH



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290005
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
805 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SETTLES OVER
THE AREA SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SKIES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO CLEAR THIS EVENING FROM SW-NE...WITH
MOST OF THE AREA BECOMING CLEAR ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL BAND OF SC
OFF THE BAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW AND WINDS
GRADUALLY DECREASE. WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND TEENS...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF RAPIDLY WITH SUNSET
ESPECIALLY AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO DECREASE. HAVE DROPPED TEMPS BY A
DEGREE OR SO WITH SUNDAY MORNING LOWS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
LOW TO MID 20S...WITH UPPER 20S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS OF SE
VA/NE NC. CURRENT FORECAST LOWS ARE NOT RECORDS...BUT WILL BE
CLOSE DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH DECOUPLING AND CLEARING OCCURS. RECORD
VALUES ARE LISTED BELOW IN THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR REFERENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY...SUNNY...AND COOL CONDITIONS WITH A LIGHT NW
WIND BECOMING SW BY AFTERNOON. LIMITED MIXING WILL ONLY ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE
LOW 50S OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC. HAVE DROPPED HIGH BY A DEGREE OR
TWO BASED ON THE GUIDANCE...BUT EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE
WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLY PUSHING IN FROM THE NW LATE IN THE
DAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSS THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN. WITH THE LOW-
LEVEL AIRMASS STARTING OUT SO FRY AND RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
LIMITED...SO THERE IS ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY FOR -SHRA (~20-30%)
WITH RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS. MANY AREAS WILL
LIKELY ONLY SEE A TRACE OF THAT MUCH. THE BOUNDARY DROPS S OF THE
REGION EARLY MONDAY WITH DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW DEVELOPING MONDAY.
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EARLY SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY BY AFTERNOON. IMPROVED MIXING AND MORE SUN WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 60S E...TO MID/UPPER 60S
W. THIS WILL BE AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
DIRECTLY ACROSS THE REGION. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY MOST OF
THE DAY WITH HIGHS REMAINING NEAR 60 OVER EASTERN SHORE AND ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BETTER AGREEMENT IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO HANDLING
SPLIT FLOW COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO. TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED...GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS NOW WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE DROPPING INTO THE NRN MID-
ATLANTIC REGION LATE TUES NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PROGGED TO TRACK
ACROSS NRN VA/MD TUES NIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY WEDS MORNING. BEST MOISTURE/LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA...BUT WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE NE ZONES LATE TUES NIGHT CLOSEST TO BEST
MOISTURE/LIFT. SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT PUSH WELL OFFSHORE WEDS AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE REGION. MODEST CAA AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL RESULT IN TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND AND MID-UPPER
50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE WEDS
NIGHT-THURS AS A SRN STREAM WAVE LIFTS FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE
TN VALLEY. MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED THANKS TO INCREASING S-SE FLOW.
28/12Z ECMWF QUICKER WITH BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE REGION THURS
AFTERNOON. HAVE DROPPED POPS THURS AFTERNOON...BUT KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SSW FLOW WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPS
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 INLAND TO LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS
THURS. EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE THURS AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...CHANCE FOR PRECIP RAMP UP THURS NIGHT-FRI AS THE SRN
STREAM WAVE LIFTS OVER THE REGION. NRN STREAM WAVE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST ALSO PROGGED TO FLATTEN AND TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE THURS-THURS NIGHT. ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED SFC LOW LOCATES
OVER SERN CANADA THURS NIGHT-FRI MORNING...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE FRI-SAT TIMEFRAME. SPATIAL AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST...BUT WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS THRU SAT
MORNING. SLIGHT WARMER FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND
LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. DEEP UPPER
TROUGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. FEW CU DUE TO COLD AIR AT AROUND
6K FT. THIS CLOUD LAYER SHOULD CLEAR AFTER SUNSET AS SURFACE
HEATING ENDS. NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
INCREASE IN THE WINDS ONCE AGAIN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. THERE
WILL BE SLGT TO LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
RETURNS THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW PRESSURE LIFTING WELL OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
MIDWEST. ONGOING CAA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG NW WINDS OF 15-25
KT OVER THE WATER. WAVES AVG 2-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. SCA CONDITIONS
PERSIST THRU THE NIGHT THANKS TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CAA.
WAVES REMAIN 2-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SW OF THE
WATER EARLY FRI...WITH NW WINDS DIMINISHING AOB 15 KT BY MID
MORNING. SEAS SUBSIDE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
OF THE WATER SUN AFTERNOON...WITH FLOW BECOMING SLY AOB 10 KT LATE
SUN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MON
NIGHT...CROSSING THE WATER LATE MON-EARLY MON NIGHT. PREFRONTAL SLY
SURGE EXPECTED SUN NIGHT...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE
BAY AND 20 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. MODELS INDICATE SCA
CONDITIONS...BUT BASED ON WAA AND COLD WATER...EXPECT A SHARP LOW
LEVEL INVERSION TO PREVENT STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE
WATER. HAVE CAPPED SPEEDS BELOW SCA ATTM. SLY FETCH MAY PUSH SEAS
TO 5 FT IN THE NRN COASTAL WATERS MON MORNING. SWLY FLOW RETURNS
MON NIGHT- TUES. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION LATE TUES WITH ANOTHER FRONT CROSSING THE WATER EARLY WEDS
NIGHT. WINDS STAY AOB 15 KT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDS-THURS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY 3/29:

RIC...22/1923
ORF...25/1982
SBY...18/1923
ECG...24/1982

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAO
NEAR TERM...AJZ/JAO
SHORT TERM...AJZ/JAO
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...SAM
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290005
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
805 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SETTLES OVER
THE AREA SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SKIES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO CLEAR THIS EVENING FROM SW-NE...WITH
MOST OF THE AREA BECOMING CLEAR ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL BAND OF SC
OFF THE BAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW AND WINDS
GRADUALLY DECREASE. WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND TEENS...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF RAPIDLY WITH SUNSET
ESPECIALLY AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO DECREASE. HAVE DROPPED TEMPS BY A
DEGREE OR SO WITH SUNDAY MORNING LOWS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
LOW TO MID 20S...WITH UPPER 20S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS OF SE
VA/NE NC. CURRENT FORECAST LOWS ARE NOT RECORDS...BUT WILL BE
CLOSE DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH DECOUPLING AND CLEARING OCCURS. RECORD
VALUES ARE LISTED BELOW IN THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR REFERENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY...SUNNY...AND COOL CONDITIONS WITH A LIGHT NW
WIND BECOMING SW BY AFTERNOON. LIMITED MIXING WILL ONLY ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE
LOW 50S OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC. HAVE DROPPED HIGH BY A DEGREE OR
TWO BASED ON THE GUIDANCE...BUT EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE
WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLY PUSHING IN FROM THE NW LATE IN THE
DAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSS THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN. WITH THE LOW-
LEVEL AIRMASS STARTING OUT SO FRY AND RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
LIMITED...SO THERE IS ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY FOR -SHRA (~20-30%)
WITH RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS. MANY AREAS WILL
LIKELY ONLY SEE A TRACE OF THAT MUCH. THE BOUNDARY DROPS S OF THE
REGION EARLY MONDAY WITH DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW DEVELOPING MONDAY.
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EARLY SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY BY AFTERNOON. IMPROVED MIXING AND MORE SUN WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 60S E...TO MID/UPPER 60S
W. THIS WILL BE AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
DIRECTLY ACROSS THE REGION. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY MOST OF
THE DAY WITH HIGHS REMAINING NEAR 60 OVER EASTERN SHORE AND ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BETTER AGREEMENT IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO HANDLING
SPLIT FLOW COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO. TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED...GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS NOW WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE DROPPING INTO THE NRN MID-
ATLANTIC REGION LATE TUES NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PROGGED TO TRACK
ACROSS NRN VA/MD TUES NIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY WEDS MORNING. BEST MOISTURE/LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA...BUT WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE NE ZONES LATE TUES NIGHT CLOSEST TO BEST
MOISTURE/LIFT. SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT PUSH WELL OFFSHORE WEDS AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE REGION. MODEST CAA AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL RESULT IN TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND AND MID-UPPER
50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE WEDS
NIGHT-THURS AS A SRN STREAM WAVE LIFTS FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE
TN VALLEY. MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED THANKS TO INCREASING S-SE FLOW.
28/12Z ECMWF QUICKER WITH BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE REGION THURS
AFTERNOON. HAVE DROPPED POPS THURS AFTERNOON...BUT KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SSW FLOW WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPS
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 INLAND TO LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS
THURS. EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE THURS AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...CHANCE FOR PRECIP RAMP UP THURS NIGHT-FRI AS THE SRN
STREAM WAVE LIFTS OVER THE REGION. NRN STREAM WAVE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST ALSO PROGGED TO FLATTEN AND TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE THURS-THURS NIGHT. ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED SFC LOW LOCATES
OVER SERN CANADA THURS NIGHT-FRI MORNING...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE FRI-SAT TIMEFRAME. SPATIAL AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST...BUT WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS THRU SAT
MORNING. SLIGHT WARMER FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND
LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. DEEP UPPER
TROUGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. FEW CU DUE TO COLD AIR AT AROUND
6K FT. THIS CLOUD LAYER SHOULD CLEAR AFTER SUNSET AS SURFACE
HEATING ENDS. NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
INCREASE IN THE WINDS ONCE AGAIN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. THERE
WILL BE SLGT TO LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
RETURNS THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW PRESSURE LIFTING WELL OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
MIDWEST. ONGOING CAA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG NW WINDS OF 15-25
KT OVER THE WATER. WAVES AVG 2-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. SCA CONDITIONS
PERSIST THRU THE NIGHT THANKS TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CAA.
WAVES REMAIN 2-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SW OF THE
WATER EARLY FRI...WITH NW WINDS DIMINISHING AOB 15 KT BY MID
MORNING. SEAS SUBSIDE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
OF THE WATER SUN AFTERNOON...WITH FLOW BECOMING SLY AOB 10 KT LATE
SUN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MON
NIGHT...CROSSING THE WATER LATE MON-EARLY MON NIGHT. PREFRONTAL SLY
SURGE EXPECTED SUN NIGHT...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE
BAY AND 20 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. MODELS INDICATE SCA
CONDITIONS...BUT BASED ON WAA AND COLD WATER...EXPECT A SHARP LOW
LEVEL INVERSION TO PREVENT STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE
WATER. HAVE CAPPED SPEEDS BELOW SCA ATTM. SLY FETCH MAY PUSH SEAS
TO 5 FT IN THE NRN COASTAL WATERS MON MORNING. SWLY FLOW RETURNS
MON NIGHT- TUES. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION LATE TUES WITH ANOTHER FRONT CROSSING THE WATER EARLY WEDS
NIGHT. WINDS STAY AOB 15 KT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDS-THURS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY 3/29:

RIC...22/1923
ORF...25/1982
SBY...18/1923
ECG...24/1982

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAO
NEAR TERM...AJZ/JAO
SHORT TERM...AJZ/JAO
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...SAM
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290005
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
805 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SETTLES OVER
THE AREA SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SKIES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO CLEAR THIS EVENING FROM SW-NE...WITH
MOST OF THE AREA BECOMING CLEAR ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL BAND OF SC
OFF THE BAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW AND WINDS
GRADUALLY DECREASE. WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND TEENS...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF RAPIDLY WITH SUNSET
ESPECIALLY AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO DECREASE. HAVE DROPPED TEMPS BY A
DEGREE OR SO WITH SUNDAY MORNING LOWS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
LOW TO MID 20S...WITH UPPER 20S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS OF SE
VA/NE NC. CURRENT FORECAST LOWS ARE NOT RECORDS...BUT WILL BE
CLOSE DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH DECOUPLING AND CLEARING OCCURS. RECORD
VALUES ARE LISTED BELOW IN THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR REFERENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY...SUNNY...AND COOL CONDITIONS WITH A LIGHT NW
WIND BECOMING SW BY AFTERNOON. LIMITED MIXING WILL ONLY ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE
LOW 50S OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC. HAVE DROPPED HIGH BY A DEGREE OR
TWO BASED ON THE GUIDANCE...BUT EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE
WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLY PUSHING IN FROM THE NW LATE IN THE
DAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSS THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN. WITH THE LOW-
LEVEL AIRMASS STARTING OUT SO FRY AND RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
LIMITED...SO THERE IS ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY FOR -SHRA (~20-30%)
WITH RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS. MANY AREAS WILL
LIKELY ONLY SEE A TRACE OF THAT MUCH. THE BOUNDARY DROPS S OF THE
REGION EARLY MONDAY WITH DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW DEVELOPING MONDAY.
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EARLY SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY BY AFTERNOON. IMPROVED MIXING AND MORE SUN WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 60S E...TO MID/UPPER 60S
W. THIS WILL BE AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
DIRECTLY ACROSS THE REGION. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY MOST OF
THE DAY WITH HIGHS REMAINING NEAR 60 OVER EASTERN SHORE AND ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BETTER AGREEMENT IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO HANDLING
SPLIT FLOW COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO. TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED...GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS NOW WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE DROPPING INTO THE NRN MID-
ATLANTIC REGION LATE TUES NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PROGGED TO TRACK
ACROSS NRN VA/MD TUES NIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY WEDS MORNING. BEST MOISTURE/LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA...BUT WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE NE ZONES LATE TUES NIGHT CLOSEST TO BEST
MOISTURE/LIFT. SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT PUSH WELL OFFSHORE WEDS AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE REGION. MODEST CAA AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL RESULT IN TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND AND MID-UPPER
50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE WEDS
NIGHT-THURS AS A SRN STREAM WAVE LIFTS FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE
TN VALLEY. MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED THANKS TO INCREASING S-SE FLOW.
28/12Z ECMWF QUICKER WITH BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE REGION THURS
AFTERNOON. HAVE DROPPED POPS THURS AFTERNOON...BUT KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SSW FLOW WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPS
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 INLAND TO LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS
THURS. EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE THURS AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...CHANCE FOR PRECIP RAMP UP THURS NIGHT-FRI AS THE SRN
STREAM WAVE LIFTS OVER THE REGION. NRN STREAM WAVE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST ALSO PROGGED TO FLATTEN AND TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE THURS-THURS NIGHT. ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED SFC LOW LOCATES
OVER SERN CANADA THURS NIGHT-FRI MORNING...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE FRI-SAT TIMEFRAME. SPATIAL AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST...BUT WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS THRU SAT
MORNING. SLIGHT WARMER FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND
LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. DEEP UPPER
TROUGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. FEW CU DUE TO COLD AIR AT AROUND
6K FT. THIS CLOUD LAYER SHOULD CLEAR AFTER SUNSET AS SURFACE
HEATING ENDS. NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
INCREASE IN THE WINDS ONCE AGAIN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. THERE
WILL BE SLGT TO LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
RETURNS THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW PRESSURE LIFTING WELL OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
MIDWEST. ONGOING CAA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG NW WINDS OF 15-25
KT OVER THE WATER. WAVES AVG 2-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. SCA CONDITIONS
PERSIST THRU THE NIGHT THANKS TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CAA.
WAVES REMAIN 2-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SW OF THE
WATER EARLY FRI...WITH NW WINDS DIMINISHING AOB 15 KT BY MID
MORNING. SEAS SUBSIDE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
OF THE WATER SUN AFTERNOON...WITH FLOW BECOMING SLY AOB 10 KT LATE
SUN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MON
NIGHT...CROSSING THE WATER LATE MON-EARLY MON NIGHT. PREFRONTAL SLY
SURGE EXPECTED SUN NIGHT...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE
BAY AND 20 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. MODELS INDICATE SCA
CONDITIONS...BUT BASED ON WAA AND COLD WATER...EXPECT A SHARP LOW
LEVEL INVERSION TO PREVENT STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE
WATER. HAVE CAPPED SPEEDS BELOW SCA ATTM. SLY FETCH MAY PUSH SEAS
TO 5 FT IN THE NRN COASTAL WATERS MON MORNING. SWLY FLOW RETURNS
MON NIGHT- TUES. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION LATE TUES WITH ANOTHER FRONT CROSSING THE WATER EARLY WEDS
NIGHT. WINDS STAY AOB 15 KT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDS-THURS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY 3/29:

RIC...22/1923
ORF...25/1982
SBY...18/1923
ECG...24/1982

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAO
NEAR TERM...AJZ/JAO
SHORT TERM...AJZ/JAO
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...SAM
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290005
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
805 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SETTLES OVER
THE AREA SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SKIES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO CLEAR THIS EVENING FROM SW-NE...WITH
MOST OF THE AREA BECOMING CLEAR ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL BAND OF SC
OFF THE BAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW AND WINDS
GRADUALLY DECREASE. WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND TEENS...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF RAPIDLY WITH SUNSET
ESPECIALLY AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO DECREASE. HAVE DROPPED TEMPS BY A
DEGREE OR SO WITH SUNDAY MORNING LOWS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
LOW TO MID 20S...WITH UPPER 20S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS OF SE
VA/NE NC. CURRENT FORECAST LOWS ARE NOT RECORDS...BUT WILL BE
CLOSE DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH DECOUPLING AND CLEARING OCCURS. RECORD
VALUES ARE LISTED BELOW IN THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR REFERENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY...SUNNY...AND COOL CONDITIONS WITH A LIGHT NW
WIND BECOMING SW BY AFTERNOON. LIMITED MIXING WILL ONLY ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE
LOW 50S OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC. HAVE DROPPED HIGH BY A DEGREE OR
TWO BASED ON THE GUIDANCE...BUT EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE
WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLY PUSHING IN FROM THE NW LATE IN THE
DAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSS THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN. WITH THE LOW-
LEVEL AIRMASS STARTING OUT SO FRY AND RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
LIMITED...SO THERE IS ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY FOR -SHRA (~20-30%)
WITH RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS. MANY AREAS WILL
LIKELY ONLY SEE A TRACE OF THAT MUCH. THE BOUNDARY DROPS S OF THE
REGION EARLY MONDAY WITH DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW DEVELOPING MONDAY.
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EARLY SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY BY AFTERNOON. IMPROVED MIXING AND MORE SUN WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 60S E...TO MID/UPPER 60S
W. THIS WILL BE AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
DIRECTLY ACROSS THE REGION. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY MOST OF
THE DAY WITH HIGHS REMAINING NEAR 60 OVER EASTERN SHORE AND ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BETTER AGREEMENT IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO HANDLING
SPLIT FLOW COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO. TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED...GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS NOW WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE DROPPING INTO THE NRN MID-
ATLANTIC REGION LATE TUES NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PROGGED TO TRACK
ACROSS NRN VA/MD TUES NIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY WEDS MORNING. BEST MOISTURE/LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA...BUT WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE NE ZONES LATE TUES NIGHT CLOSEST TO BEST
MOISTURE/LIFT. SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT PUSH WELL OFFSHORE WEDS AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE REGION. MODEST CAA AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL RESULT IN TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND AND MID-UPPER
50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE WEDS
NIGHT-THURS AS A SRN STREAM WAVE LIFTS FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE
TN VALLEY. MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED THANKS TO INCREASING S-SE FLOW.
28/12Z ECMWF QUICKER WITH BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE REGION THURS
AFTERNOON. HAVE DROPPED POPS THURS AFTERNOON...BUT KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SSW FLOW WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPS
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 INLAND TO LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS
THURS. EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE THURS AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...CHANCE FOR PRECIP RAMP UP THURS NIGHT-FRI AS THE SRN
STREAM WAVE LIFTS OVER THE REGION. NRN STREAM WAVE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST ALSO PROGGED TO FLATTEN AND TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE THURS-THURS NIGHT. ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED SFC LOW LOCATES
OVER SERN CANADA THURS NIGHT-FRI MORNING...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE FRI-SAT TIMEFRAME. SPATIAL AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST...BUT WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS THRU SAT
MORNING. SLIGHT WARMER FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND
LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. DEEP UPPER
TROUGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. FEW CU DUE TO COLD AIR AT AROUND
6K FT. THIS CLOUD LAYER SHOULD CLEAR AFTER SUNSET AS SURFACE
HEATING ENDS. NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
INCREASE IN THE WINDS ONCE AGAIN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. THERE
WILL BE SLGT TO LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
RETURNS THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW PRESSURE LIFTING WELL OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
MIDWEST. ONGOING CAA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG NW WINDS OF 15-25
KT OVER THE WATER. WAVES AVG 2-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. SCA CONDITIONS
PERSIST THRU THE NIGHT THANKS TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CAA.
WAVES REMAIN 2-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SW OF THE
WATER EARLY FRI...WITH NW WINDS DIMINISHING AOB 15 KT BY MID
MORNING. SEAS SUBSIDE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
OF THE WATER SUN AFTERNOON...WITH FLOW BECOMING SLY AOB 10 KT LATE
SUN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MON
NIGHT...CROSSING THE WATER LATE MON-EARLY MON NIGHT. PREFRONTAL SLY
SURGE EXPECTED SUN NIGHT...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE
BAY AND 20 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. MODELS INDICATE SCA
CONDITIONS...BUT BASED ON WAA AND COLD WATER...EXPECT A SHARP LOW
LEVEL INVERSION TO PREVENT STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE
WATER. HAVE CAPPED SPEEDS BELOW SCA ATTM. SLY FETCH MAY PUSH SEAS
TO 5 FT IN THE NRN COASTAL WATERS MON MORNING. SWLY FLOW RETURNS
MON NIGHT- TUES. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION LATE TUES WITH ANOTHER FRONT CROSSING THE WATER EARLY WEDS
NIGHT. WINDS STAY AOB 15 KT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDS-THURS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY 3/29:

RIC...22/1923
ORF...25/1982
SBY...18/1923
ECG...24/1982

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAO
NEAR TERM...AJZ/JAO
SHORT TERM...AJZ/JAO
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...SAM
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KRNK 282312
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
712 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ON SUNDAY WILL MOVE
EAST AND CROSS THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM EDT SATURDAY...

1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BUILD SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. PATCHY LOW STRATO CU WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET.

UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...WINDS WILL DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT AND WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS...THE DRY AIR MASS WILL
RESULT IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. RECORD
LOWS TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING IN
LYNCHBURG...BLACKSBURG...DANVILLE...LEWISBURG AND BLUEFIELD.
(CLIMATE SECTION LISTED FOR REFERENCE AND ALSO NOTE THAT THE FROST
AND FREEZE PROGRAM HAS NOT BEGUN FOR OUR FORECAST AREA.)

AS THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS SOUTHEAST...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL LIMIT HEATING.
PLAYED HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO COOLER ADJMET VALUES FROM THE
THE LOWER 40S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM EDT SATURDAY...

EXPECT A FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY WITH MAINLY A THREAT OF SHOWERS. SOME COLDER AIR WILL
SNEAK IN ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS AND COULD PRODUCE SNOW...BUT NOTHING
OF SIGNIFICANCE.

ONCE THIS FRONT PASSES THE FLOW ALOFT STAYS A GENERAL WNW PATTERN.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ARRIVES BY TUESDAY ALTHOUGH MAIN MOISTURE WILL
STAY NORTH OF US. EXPECT MODERATING TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD WITH
LOWS AND HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...

MODELS VARY IN TERMS OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING TOWARD OUR
AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. BOTH 00Z/12Z ECMWF SHOW MORE
AMPLIFICATION WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF TX
WEDNESDAY WHICH IN A SPLIT FLOW APPEARS TO TAKE ON MORE NEGATIVE
TILT HEADING INTO THURSDAY OVER THE TN VALLEY. HPC APPEARS TO BE
LEANING TOWARD A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS/ENSEMBLE APPROACH. THIS
WILL DICTATE WHEN RAIN MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA.

BEFORE THIS SYSTEM...SFC HIGH SHOULD WEDGE SWD BRIEFLY WEDNESDAY
WITH SEASONABLY MILD DAY ON TAP. THIS HIGH DEPARTS THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST THURSDAY MORNING...WITH SURGE OF MOISTURE PUSHING NWD ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE PER SE FLOW. AT THIS TIME...THINK WILL SEE DRIER AIR
WITH LIMITED THREAT OF RAIN WED NIGHT BUT EXPECT AIRMASS TO MOISTEN
MORE INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH MAIN LIFT STAYING WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS. STILL LOOKING AT THE CHANCE OF RAIN FROM ALONG AND WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH POSSIBLY EWD EXTENT INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA
PER FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC EARLY ON BEFORE VEERING WINDS TURN MORE SW.

HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE MILD BUT COULD BE COOLER PER MORE CLOUDS AND
RAIN CHANCES. IF THE HIGH SLOWS DOWN OR SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH...THUS
ALLOWING LONGER EASTERLY FETCH...THEN TEMPS COULD BE 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER OUT EAST....BUT STILL JUST NEAR NORMAL.

AS WE HEAD INTO THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY THE FORECAST VARIES...THOUGH
THE NEW 12Z ECMWF SHOWS SIMILAR SETUP THAT THE 12Z GFS DOES WITH
FRONT ORIENTATION SETTING UP IN AN EAST-WEST FASHION WITH PARALLEL
FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS GOING TO KEEP THE AREA IN A UNSETTLED PATTERN
WITH NEXT MAIN LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY ARRIVING OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE
DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS IS THAT THE ECMWF SHOWS A STRONGER LOW
MOVING MORE NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE GFS HAS WEAKER
LOW MOVING ACROSS WV INTO NRN VA. THE ECMWF SOLUTION AS SUCH HAS
LESS QPF THAN THE GFS. NONETHELESS THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE COLD
THOUGH THE ECWMF IS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED AND COLDER THAN THE GFS.
COULD SEE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MTNS SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 650 PM EDT SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
ONGOING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND
BECOME LIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN
TURN MORE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO
THE SOUTH WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO BETWEEN 8-15 KNOTS LATER IN
THE DAY.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY POSSIBLY BRINGING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS
ALONG WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS. THERE IS ALSO
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY AS ANOTHER CLIPPER SLIDES ACROSS FROM THE NORTHWEST.
OTHERWISE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN MAINLY VFR TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY LINGERING MOUNTAIN UPSLOPE DRIVEN MVFR
CIGS ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL AGAIN INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER
COLD FRONT THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR
MOST TAF SITES BY THEN.
&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 455 AM EDT FRIDAY...

RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 29:

ROANOKE......19 IN 1982
BLACKSBURG...17 IN 2001
LYNCHBURG....23 IN 1923 AND 1982
DANVILLE.....23 IN 1966
BLUEFIELD....19 IN 1966 AND 1982
LEWISBURG....18 IN 1983

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/JH/KK
CLIMATE...AMS/SK




000
FXUS61 KRNK 282312
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
712 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ON SUNDAY WILL MOVE
EAST AND CROSS THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM EDT SATURDAY...

1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BUILD SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. PATCHY LOW STRATO CU WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET.

UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...WINDS WILL DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT AND WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS...THE DRY AIR MASS WILL
RESULT IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. RECORD
LOWS TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING IN
LYNCHBURG...BLACKSBURG...DANVILLE...LEWISBURG AND BLUEFIELD.
(CLIMATE SECTION LISTED FOR REFERENCE AND ALSO NOTE THAT THE FROST
AND FREEZE PROGRAM HAS NOT BEGUN FOR OUR FORECAST AREA.)

AS THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS SOUTHEAST...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL LIMIT HEATING.
PLAYED HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO COOLER ADJMET VALUES FROM THE
THE LOWER 40S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM EDT SATURDAY...

EXPECT A FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY WITH MAINLY A THREAT OF SHOWERS. SOME COLDER AIR WILL
SNEAK IN ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS AND COULD PRODUCE SNOW...BUT NOTHING
OF SIGNIFICANCE.

ONCE THIS FRONT PASSES THE FLOW ALOFT STAYS A GENERAL WNW PATTERN.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ARRIVES BY TUESDAY ALTHOUGH MAIN MOISTURE WILL
STAY NORTH OF US. EXPECT MODERATING TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD WITH
LOWS AND HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...

MODELS VARY IN TERMS OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING TOWARD OUR
AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. BOTH 00Z/12Z ECMWF SHOW MORE
AMPLIFICATION WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF TX
WEDNESDAY WHICH IN A SPLIT FLOW APPEARS TO TAKE ON MORE NEGATIVE
TILT HEADING INTO THURSDAY OVER THE TN VALLEY. HPC APPEARS TO BE
LEANING TOWARD A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS/ENSEMBLE APPROACH. THIS
WILL DICTATE WHEN RAIN MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA.

BEFORE THIS SYSTEM...SFC HIGH SHOULD WEDGE SWD BRIEFLY WEDNESDAY
WITH SEASONABLY MILD DAY ON TAP. THIS HIGH DEPARTS THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST THURSDAY MORNING...WITH SURGE OF MOISTURE PUSHING NWD ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE PER SE FLOW. AT THIS TIME...THINK WILL SEE DRIER AIR
WITH LIMITED THREAT OF RAIN WED NIGHT BUT EXPECT AIRMASS TO MOISTEN
MORE INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH MAIN LIFT STAYING WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS. STILL LOOKING AT THE CHANCE OF RAIN FROM ALONG AND WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH POSSIBLY EWD EXTENT INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA
PER FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC EARLY ON BEFORE VEERING WINDS TURN MORE SW.

HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE MILD BUT COULD BE COOLER PER MORE CLOUDS AND
RAIN CHANCES. IF THE HIGH SLOWS DOWN OR SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH...THUS
ALLOWING LONGER EASTERLY FETCH...THEN TEMPS COULD BE 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER OUT EAST....BUT STILL JUST NEAR NORMAL.

AS WE HEAD INTO THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY THE FORECAST VARIES...THOUGH
THE NEW 12Z ECMWF SHOWS SIMILAR SETUP THAT THE 12Z GFS DOES WITH
FRONT ORIENTATION SETTING UP IN AN EAST-WEST FASHION WITH PARALLEL
FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS GOING TO KEEP THE AREA IN A UNSETTLED PATTERN
WITH NEXT MAIN LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY ARRIVING OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE
DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS IS THAT THE ECMWF SHOWS A STRONGER LOW
MOVING MORE NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE GFS HAS WEAKER
LOW MOVING ACROSS WV INTO NRN VA. THE ECMWF SOLUTION AS SUCH HAS
LESS QPF THAN THE GFS. NONETHELESS THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE COLD
THOUGH THE ECWMF IS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED AND COLDER THAN THE GFS.
COULD SEE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MTNS SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 650 PM EDT SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
ONGOING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND
BECOME LIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN
TURN MORE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO
THE SOUTH WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO BETWEEN 8-15 KNOTS LATER IN
THE DAY.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY POSSIBLY BRINGING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS
ALONG WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS. THERE IS ALSO
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY AS ANOTHER CLIPPER SLIDES ACROSS FROM THE NORTHWEST.
OTHERWISE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN MAINLY VFR TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY LINGERING MOUNTAIN UPSLOPE DRIVEN MVFR
CIGS ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL AGAIN INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER
COLD FRONT THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR
MOST TAF SITES BY THEN.
&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 455 AM EDT FRIDAY...

RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 29:

ROANOKE......19 IN 1982
BLACKSBURG...17 IN 2001
LYNCHBURG....23 IN 1923 AND 1982
DANVILLE.....23 IN 1966
BLUEFIELD....19 IN 1966 AND 1982
LEWISBURG....18 IN 1983

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/JH/KK
CLIMATE...AMS/SK



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 282246
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
646 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SETTLES OVER
THE AREA SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SKIES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO CLEAR THIS EVENING FROM SW-NE...WITH
MOST OF THE AREA BECOMING CLEAR ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL BAND OF SC
OFF THE BAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW AND WINDS
GRADUALLY DECREASE. WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND TEENS...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF RAPIDLY WITH SUNSET
ESPECIALLY AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO DECREASE. HAVE DROPPED TEMPS BY A
DEGREE OR SO WITH SUNDAY MORNING LOWS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
LOW TO MID 20S...WITH UPPER 20S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS OF SE
VA/NE NC. CURRENT FORECAST LOWS ARE NOT RECORDS...BUT WILL BE
CLOSE DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH DECOUPLING AND CLEARING OCCURS. RECORD
VALUES ARE LISTED BELOW IN THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR REFERENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY...SUNNY...AND COOL CONDITIONS WITH A LIGHT NW
WIND BECOMING SW BY AFTERNOON. LIMITED MIXING WILL ONLY ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE
LOW 50S OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC. HAVE DROPPED HIGH BY A DEGREE OR
TWO BASED ON THE GUIDANCE...BUT EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE
WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLY PUSHING IN FROM THE NW LATE IN THE
DAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSS THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN. WITH THE LOW-
LEVEL AIRMASS STARTING OUT SO FRY AND RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
LIMITED...SO THERE IS ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY FOR -SHRA (~20-30%)
WITH RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS. MANY AREAS WILL
LIKELY ONLY SEE A TRACE OF THAT MUCH. THE BOUNDARY DROPS S OF THE
REGION EARLY MONDAY WITH DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW DEVELOPING MONDAY.
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EARLY SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY BY AFTERNOON. IMPROVED MIXING AND MORE SUN WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 60S E...TO MID/UPPER 60S
W. THIS WILL BE AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
DIRECTLY ACROSS THE REGION. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY MOST OF
THE DAY WITH HIGHS REMAINING NEAR 60 OVER EASTERN SHORE AND ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BETTER AGREEMENT IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO HANDLING
SPLIT FLOW COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO. TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED...GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS NOW WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE DROPPING INTO THE NRN MID-
ATLANTIC REGION LATE TUES NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PROGGED TO TRACK
ACROSS NRN VA/MD TUES NIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY WEDS MORNING. BEST MOISTURE/LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA...BUT WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE NE ZONES LATE TUES NIGHT CLOSEST TO BEST
MOISTURE/LIFT. SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT PUSH WELL OFFSHORE WEDS AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE REGION. MODEST CAA AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL RESULT IN TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND AND MID-UPPER
50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE WEDS
NIGHT-THURS AS A SRN STREAM WAVE LIFTS FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE
TN VALLEY. MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED THANKS TO INCREASING S-SE FLOW.
28/12Z ECMWF QUICKER WITH BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE REGION THURS
AFTERNOON. HAVE DROPPED POPS THURS AFTERNOON...BUT KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SSW FLOW WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPS
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 INLAND TO LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS
THURS. EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE THURS AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...CHANCE FOR PRECIP RAMP UP THURS NIGHT-FRI AS THE SRN
STREAM WAVE LIFTS OVER THE REGION. NRN STREAM WAVE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST ALSO PROGGED TO FLATTEN AND TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE THURS-THURS NIGHT. ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED SFC LOW LOCATES
OVER SERN CANADA THURS NIGHT-FRI MORNING...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE FRI-SAT TIMEFRAME. SPATIAL AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST...BUT WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS THRU SAT
MORNING. SLIGHT WARMER FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND
LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY.

SCT-BKN SC/CU DUE TO COLD AIR AT AROUND 6K FT. THIS CLOUD LAYER
SHOULD CLEAR NEAR SUNSET AS SURFACE HEATING ENDS. GUSTY NW WINDS
WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE WINDS
ONCE AGAIN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR IS FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. THERE WILL BE SLGT TO LOW
CHC FOR SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNS THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW PRESSURE LIFTING WELL OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
MIDWEST. ONGOING CAA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG NW WINDS OF 15-25
KT OVER THE WATER. WAVES AVG 2-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. SCA CONDITIONS
PERSIST THRU THE NIGHT THANKS TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CAA.
WAVES REMAIN 2-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SW OF THE
WATER EARLY FRI...WITH NW WINDS DIMINISHING AOB 15 KT BY MID
MORNING. SEAS SUBSIDE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
OF THE WATER SUN AFTERNOON...WITH FLOW BECOMING SLY AOB 10 KT LATE
SUN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MON
NIGHT...CROSSING THE WATER LATE MON-EARLY MON NIGHT. PREFRONTAL SLY
SURGE EXPECTED SUN NIGHT...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE
BAY AND 20 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. MODELS INDICATE SCA
CONDITIONS...BUT BASED ON WAA AND COLD WATER...EXPECT A SHARP LOW
LEVEL INVERSION TO PREVENT STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE
WATER. HAVE CAPPED SPEEDS BELOW SCA ATTM. SLY FETCH MAY PUSH SEAS
TO 5 FT IN THE NRN COASTAL WATERS MON MORNING. SWLY FLOW RETURNS
MON NIGHT- TUES. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION LATE TUES WITH ANOTHER FRONT CROSSING THE WATER EARLY WEDS
NIGHT. WINDS STAY AOB 15 KT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDS-THURS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY 3/29:

RIC...22/1923
ORF...25/1982
SBY...18/1923
ECG...24/1982

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAO
NEAR TERM...AJZ/JAO
SHORT TERM...AJZ/JAO
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 282246
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
646 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SETTLES OVER
THE AREA SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SKIES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO CLEAR THIS EVENING FROM SW-NE...WITH
MOST OF THE AREA BECOMING CLEAR ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL BAND OF SC
OFF THE BAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW AND WINDS
GRADUALLY DECREASE. WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND TEENS...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF RAPIDLY WITH SUNSET
ESPECIALLY AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO DECREASE. HAVE DROPPED TEMPS BY A
DEGREE OR SO WITH SUNDAY MORNING LOWS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
LOW TO MID 20S...WITH UPPER 20S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS OF SE
VA/NE NC. CURRENT FORECAST LOWS ARE NOT RECORDS...BUT WILL BE
CLOSE DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH DECOUPLING AND CLEARING OCCURS. RECORD
VALUES ARE LISTED BELOW IN THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR REFERENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY...SUNNY...AND COOL CONDITIONS WITH A LIGHT NW
WIND BECOMING SW BY AFTERNOON. LIMITED MIXING WILL ONLY ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE
LOW 50S OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC. HAVE DROPPED HIGH BY A DEGREE OR
TWO BASED ON THE GUIDANCE...BUT EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE
WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLY PUSHING IN FROM THE NW LATE IN THE
DAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSS THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN. WITH THE LOW-
LEVEL AIRMASS STARTING OUT SO FRY AND RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
LIMITED...SO THERE IS ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY FOR -SHRA (~20-30%)
WITH RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS. MANY AREAS WILL
LIKELY ONLY SEE A TRACE OF THAT MUCH. THE BOUNDARY DROPS S OF THE
REGION EARLY MONDAY WITH DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW DEVELOPING MONDAY.
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EARLY SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY BY AFTERNOON. IMPROVED MIXING AND MORE SUN WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 60S E...TO MID/UPPER 60S
W. THIS WILL BE AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
DIRECTLY ACROSS THE REGION. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY MOST OF
THE DAY WITH HIGHS REMAINING NEAR 60 OVER EASTERN SHORE AND ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BETTER AGREEMENT IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO HANDLING
SPLIT FLOW COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO. TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED...GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS NOW WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE DROPPING INTO THE NRN MID-
ATLANTIC REGION LATE TUES NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PROGGED TO TRACK
ACROSS NRN VA/MD TUES NIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY WEDS MORNING. BEST MOISTURE/LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA...BUT WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE NE ZONES LATE TUES NIGHT CLOSEST TO BEST
MOISTURE/LIFT. SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT PUSH WELL OFFSHORE WEDS AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE REGION. MODEST CAA AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL RESULT IN TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND AND MID-UPPER
50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE WEDS
NIGHT-THURS AS A SRN STREAM WAVE LIFTS FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE
TN VALLEY. MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED THANKS TO INCREASING S-SE FLOW.
28/12Z ECMWF QUICKER WITH BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE REGION THURS
AFTERNOON. HAVE DROPPED POPS THURS AFTERNOON...BUT KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SSW FLOW WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPS
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 INLAND TO LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS
THURS. EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE THURS AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...CHANCE FOR PRECIP RAMP UP THURS NIGHT-FRI AS THE SRN
STREAM WAVE LIFTS OVER THE REGION. NRN STREAM WAVE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST ALSO PROGGED TO FLATTEN AND TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE THURS-THURS NIGHT. ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED SFC LOW LOCATES
OVER SERN CANADA THURS NIGHT-FRI MORNING...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE FRI-SAT TIMEFRAME. SPATIAL AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST...BUT WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS THRU SAT
MORNING. SLIGHT WARMER FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND
LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY.

SCT-BKN SC/CU DUE TO COLD AIR AT AROUND 6K FT. THIS CLOUD LAYER
SHOULD CLEAR NEAR SUNSET AS SURFACE HEATING ENDS. GUSTY NW WINDS
WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE WINDS
ONCE AGAIN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR IS FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. THERE WILL BE SLGT TO LOW
CHC FOR SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNS THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW PRESSURE LIFTING WELL OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
MIDWEST. ONGOING CAA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG NW WINDS OF 15-25
KT OVER THE WATER. WAVES AVG 2-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. SCA CONDITIONS
PERSIST THRU THE NIGHT THANKS TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CAA.
WAVES REMAIN 2-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SW OF THE
WATER EARLY FRI...WITH NW WINDS DIMINISHING AOB 15 KT BY MID
MORNING. SEAS SUBSIDE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
OF THE WATER SUN AFTERNOON...WITH FLOW BECOMING SLY AOB 10 KT LATE
SUN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MON
NIGHT...CROSSING THE WATER LATE MON-EARLY MON NIGHT. PREFRONTAL SLY
SURGE EXPECTED SUN NIGHT...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE
BAY AND 20 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. MODELS INDICATE SCA
CONDITIONS...BUT BASED ON WAA AND COLD WATER...EXPECT A SHARP LOW
LEVEL INVERSION TO PREVENT STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE
WATER. HAVE CAPPED SPEEDS BELOW SCA ATTM. SLY FETCH MAY PUSH SEAS
TO 5 FT IN THE NRN COASTAL WATERS MON MORNING. SWLY FLOW RETURNS
MON NIGHT- TUES. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION LATE TUES WITH ANOTHER FRONT CROSSING THE WATER EARLY WEDS
NIGHT. WINDS STAY AOB 15 KT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDS-THURS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY 3/29:

RIC...22/1923
ORF...25/1982
SBY...18/1923
ECG...24/1982

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAO
NEAR TERM...AJZ/JAO
SHORT TERM...AJZ/JAO
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 282246
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
646 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SETTLES OVER
THE AREA SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SKIES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO CLEAR THIS EVENING FROM SW-NE...WITH
MOST OF THE AREA BECOMING CLEAR ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL BAND OF SC
OFF THE BAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW AND WINDS
GRADUALLY DECREASE. WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND TEENS...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF RAPIDLY WITH SUNSET
ESPECIALLY AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO DECREASE. HAVE DROPPED TEMPS BY A
DEGREE OR SO WITH SUNDAY MORNING LOWS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
LOW TO MID 20S...WITH UPPER 20S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS OF SE
VA/NE NC. CURRENT FORECAST LOWS ARE NOT RECORDS...BUT WILL BE
CLOSE DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH DECOUPLING AND CLEARING OCCURS. RECORD
VALUES ARE LISTED BELOW IN THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR REFERENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY...SUNNY...AND COOL CONDITIONS WITH A LIGHT NW
WIND BECOMING SW BY AFTERNOON. LIMITED MIXING WILL ONLY ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE
LOW 50S OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC. HAVE DROPPED HIGH BY A DEGREE OR
TWO BASED ON THE GUIDANCE...BUT EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE
WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLY PUSHING IN FROM THE NW LATE IN THE
DAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSS THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN. WITH THE LOW-
LEVEL AIRMASS STARTING OUT SO FRY AND RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
LIMITED...SO THERE IS ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY FOR -SHRA (~20-30%)
WITH RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS. MANY AREAS WILL
LIKELY ONLY SEE A TRACE OF THAT MUCH. THE BOUNDARY DROPS S OF THE
REGION EARLY MONDAY WITH DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW DEVELOPING MONDAY.
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EARLY SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY BY AFTERNOON. IMPROVED MIXING AND MORE SUN WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 60S E...TO MID/UPPER 60S
W. THIS WILL BE AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
DIRECTLY ACROSS THE REGION. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY MOST OF
THE DAY WITH HIGHS REMAINING NEAR 60 OVER EASTERN SHORE AND ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BETTER AGREEMENT IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO HANDLING
SPLIT FLOW COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO. TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED...GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS NOW WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE DROPPING INTO THE NRN MID-
ATLANTIC REGION LATE TUES NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PROGGED TO TRACK
ACROSS NRN VA/MD TUES NIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY WEDS MORNING. BEST MOISTURE/LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA...BUT WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE NE ZONES LATE TUES NIGHT CLOSEST TO BEST
MOISTURE/LIFT. SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT PUSH WELL OFFSHORE WEDS AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE REGION. MODEST CAA AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL RESULT IN TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND AND MID-UPPER
50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE WEDS
NIGHT-THURS AS A SRN STREAM WAVE LIFTS FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE
TN VALLEY. MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED THANKS TO INCREASING S-SE FLOW.
28/12Z ECMWF QUICKER WITH BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE REGION THURS
AFTERNOON. HAVE DROPPED POPS THURS AFTERNOON...BUT KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SSW FLOW WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPS
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 INLAND TO LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS
THURS. EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE THURS AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...CHANCE FOR PRECIP RAMP UP THURS NIGHT-FRI AS THE SRN
STREAM WAVE LIFTS OVER THE REGION. NRN STREAM WAVE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST ALSO PROGGED TO FLATTEN AND TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE THURS-THURS NIGHT. ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED SFC LOW LOCATES
OVER SERN CANADA THURS NIGHT-FRI MORNING...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE FRI-SAT TIMEFRAME. SPATIAL AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST...BUT WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS THRU SAT
MORNING. SLIGHT WARMER FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND
LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY.

SCT-BKN SC/CU DUE TO COLD AIR AT AROUND 6K FT. THIS CLOUD LAYER
SHOULD CLEAR NEAR SUNSET AS SURFACE HEATING ENDS. GUSTY NW WINDS
WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE WINDS
ONCE AGAIN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR IS FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. THERE WILL BE SLGT TO LOW
CHC FOR SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNS THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW PRESSURE LIFTING WELL OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
MIDWEST. ONGOING CAA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG NW WINDS OF 15-25
KT OVER THE WATER. WAVES AVG 2-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. SCA CONDITIONS
PERSIST THRU THE NIGHT THANKS TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CAA.
WAVES REMAIN 2-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SW OF THE
WATER EARLY FRI...WITH NW WINDS DIMINISHING AOB 15 KT BY MID
MORNING. SEAS SUBSIDE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
OF THE WATER SUN AFTERNOON...WITH FLOW BECOMING SLY AOB 10 KT LATE
SUN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MON
NIGHT...CROSSING THE WATER LATE MON-EARLY MON NIGHT. PREFRONTAL SLY
SURGE EXPECTED SUN NIGHT...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE
BAY AND 20 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. MODELS INDICATE SCA
CONDITIONS...BUT BASED ON WAA AND COLD WATER...EXPECT A SHARP LOW
LEVEL INVERSION TO PREVENT STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE
WATER. HAVE CAPPED SPEEDS BELOW SCA ATTM. SLY FETCH MAY PUSH SEAS
TO 5 FT IN THE NRN COASTAL WATERS MON MORNING. SWLY FLOW RETURNS
MON NIGHT- TUES. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION LATE TUES WITH ANOTHER FRONT CROSSING THE WATER EARLY WEDS
NIGHT. WINDS STAY AOB 15 KT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDS-THURS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY 3/29:

RIC...22/1923
ORF...25/1982
SBY...18/1923
ECG...24/1982

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAO
NEAR TERM...AJZ/JAO
SHORT TERM...AJZ/JAO
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 282246
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
646 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SETTLES OVER
THE AREA SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SKIES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO CLEAR THIS EVENING FROM SW-NE...WITH
MOST OF THE AREA BECOMING CLEAR ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL BAND OF SC
OFF THE BAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW AND WINDS
GRADUALLY DECREASE. WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND TEENS...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF RAPIDLY WITH SUNSET
ESPECIALLY AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO DECREASE. HAVE DROPPED TEMPS BY A
DEGREE OR SO WITH SUNDAY MORNING LOWS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
LOW TO MID 20S...WITH UPPER 20S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS OF SE
VA/NE NC. CURRENT FORECAST LOWS ARE NOT RECORDS...BUT WILL BE
CLOSE DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH DECOUPLING AND CLEARING OCCURS. RECORD
VALUES ARE LISTED BELOW IN THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR REFERENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY...SUNNY...AND COOL CONDITIONS WITH A LIGHT NW
WIND BECOMING SW BY AFTERNOON. LIMITED MIXING WILL ONLY ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE
LOW 50S OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC. HAVE DROPPED HIGH BY A DEGREE OR
TWO BASED ON THE GUIDANCE...BUT EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE
WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLY PUSHING IN FROM THE NW LATE IN THE
DAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSS THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN. WITH THE LOW-
LEVEL AIRMASS STARTING OUT SO FRY AND RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
LIMITED...SO THERE IS ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY FOR -SHRA (~20-30%)
WITH RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS. MANY AREAS WILL
LIKELY ONLY SEE A TRACE OF THAT MUCH. THE BOUNDARY DROPS S OF THE
REGION EARLY MONDAY WITH DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW DEVELOPING MONDAY.
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EARLY SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY BY AFTERNOON. IMPROVED MIXING AND MORE SUN WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 60S E...TO MID/UPPER 60S
W. THIS WILL BE AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
DIRECTLY ACROSS THE REGION. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY MOST OF
THE DAY WITH HIGHS REMAINING NEAR 60 OVER EASTERN SHORE AND ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BETTER AGREEMENT IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO HANDLING
SPLIT FLOW COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO. TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED...GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS NOW WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE DROPPING INTO THE NRN MID-
ATLANTIC REGION LATE TUES NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PROGGED TO TRACK
ACROSS NRN VA/MD TUES NIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY WEDS MORNING. BEST MOISTURE/LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA...BUT WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE NE ZONES LATE TUES NIGHT CLOSEST TO BEST
MOISTURE/LIFT. SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT PUSH WELL OFFSHORE WEDS AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE REGION. MODEST CAA AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL RESULT IN TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND AND MID-UPPER
50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE WEDS
NIGHT-THURS AS A SRN STREAM WAVE LIFTS FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE
TN VALLEY. MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED THANKS TO INCREASING S-SE FLOW.
28/12Z ECMWF QUICKER WITH BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE REGION THURS
AFTERNOON. HAVE DROPPED POPS THURS AFTERNOON...BUT KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SSW FLOW WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPS
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 INLAND TO LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS
THURS. EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE THURS AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...CHANCE FOR PRECIP RAMP UP THURS NIGHT-FRI AS THE SRN
STREAM WAVE LIFTS OVER THE REGION. NRN STREAM WAVE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST ALSO PROGGED TO FLATTEN AND TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE THURS-THURS NIGHT. ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED SFC LOW LOCATES
OVER SERN CANADA THURS NIGHT-FRI MORNING...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE FRI-SAT TIMEFRAME. SPATIAL AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST...BUT WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS THRU SAT
MORNING. SLIGHT WARMER FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND
LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY.

SCT-BKN SC/CU DUE TO COLD AIR AT AROUND 6K FT. THIS CLOUD LAYER
SHOULD CLEAR NEAR SUNSET AS SURFACE HEATING ENDS. GUSTY NW WINDS
WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE WINDS
ONCE AGAIN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR IS FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. THERE WILL BE SLGT TO LOW
CHC FOR SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNS THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW PRESSURE LIFTING WELL OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
MIDWEST. ONGOING CAA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG NW WINDS OF 15-25
KT OVER THE WATER. WAVES AVG 2-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. SCA CONDITIONS
PERSIST THRU THE NIGHT THANKS TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CAA.
WAVES REMAIN 2-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SW OF THE
WATER EARLY FRI...WITH NW WINDS DIMINISHING AOB 15 KT BY MID
MORNING. SEAS SUBSIDE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
OF THE WATER SUN AFTERNOON...WITH FLOW BECOMING SLY AOB 10 KT LATE
SUN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MON
NIGHT...CROSSING THE WATER LATE MON-EARLY MON NIGHT. PREFRONTAL SLY
SURGE EXPECTED SUN NIGHT...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE
BAY AND 20 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. MODELS INDICATE SCA
CONDITIONS...BUT BASED ON WAA AND COLD WATER...EXPECT A SHARP LOW
LEVEL INVERSION TO PREVENT STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE
WATER. HAVE CAPPED SPEEDS BELOW SCA ATTM. SLY FETCH MAY PUSH SEAS
TO 5 FT IN THE NRN COASTAL WATERS MON MORNING. SWLY FLOW RETURNS
MON NIGHT- TUES. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION LATE TUES WITH ANOTHER FRONT CROSSING THE WATER EARLY WEDS
NIGHT. WINDS STAY AOB 15 KT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDS-THURS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY 3/29:

RIC...22/1923
ORF...25/1982
SBY...18/1923
ECG...24/1982

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAO
NEAR TERM...AJZ/JAO
SHORT TERM...AJZ/JAO
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 282013
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
413 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SETTLES OVER
THE AREA SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW FLURRIES AND SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES REMAIN OVER SE VA THIS
AFTERNOON..BUT WERE PUSHING OFFSHORE. ANOTHER AREA OF FLURRIES
WITH SOME RAIN WAS TRYING TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE LOWER MD EASTERN
SHORE...BUT THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN RATHER DRY. OVERALL DO NOT
EXPECT MORE THAN JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW FLURRIES...MAINLY
OVER THE MD EASTERN SHORE THIS EVENING. THE UPPER TROUGH HAS ALSO
SUPPORTED A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL AS OVER MD EASTERN SHORE. THESE CLOUDS COMBINED
WITH CAA AND GUSTY WINDS FROM THE PRES GRAD HAVE KEPT HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

SKIES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO CLEAR THIS EVENING  FROM SW-NE...WITH
MOST OF THE AREA BECOMING CLEAR ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL BAND OF SC
OFF THE BAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW AND WINDS
GRADUALLY DECREASE. WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF RAPIDLY WITH
SUNSET ESPECIALLY AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO DECREASE. HAVE DROPPED TEMPS
BY A DEGREE OR SO WITH SUNDAY MORNING LOWS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE LOW TO MID 20S...WITH UPPER 20S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS OF
SE VA/NE NC. CURRENT FORECAST LOWS ARE NOT RECORDS...BUT WILL BE
CLOSE DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH DECOUPLING AND CLEARING OCCURS. RECORD
VALUES ARE LISTED BELOW IN THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR REFERENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY...SUNNY...AND COOL CONDITIONS WITH A LIGHT NW
WIND BECOMING SW BY AFTERNOON. LIMITED MIXING WILL ONLY ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE
LOW 50S OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC. HAVE DROPPED HIGH BY A DEGREE OR
TWO BASED ON THE GUIDANCE...BUT EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE
WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLY PUSHING IN FROM THE NW LATE IN THE
DAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSS THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN. WITH THE LOW-
LEVEL AIRMASS STARTING OUT SO FRY AND RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
LIMITED...SO THERE IS ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY FOR -SHRA (~20-30%)
WITH RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS. MANY AREAS WILL
LIKELY ONLY SEE A TRACE OF THAT MUCH. THE BOUNDARY DROPS S OF THE
REGION EARLY MONDAY WITH DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW DEVELOPING MONDAY.
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EARLY SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY BY AFTERNOON. IMPROVED MIXING AND MORE SUN WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 60S E...TO MID/UPPER 60S
W. THIS WILL BE AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
DIRECTLY ACROSS THE REGION. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY MOST OF
THE DAY WITH HIGHS REMAINING NEAR 60 OVER EASTERN SHORE AND ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BETTER AGREEMENT IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO HANDLING
SPLIT FLOW COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO. TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED...GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS NOW WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE DROPPING INTO THE NRN MID-
ATLANTIC REGION LATE TUES NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PROGGED TO TRACK
ACROSS NRN VA/MD TUES NIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY WEDS MORNING. BEST MOISTURE/LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA...BUT WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE NE ZONES LATE TUES NIGHT CLOSEST TO BEST
MOISTURE/LIFT. SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT PUSH WELL OFFSHORE WEDS AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE REGION. MODEST CAA AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL RESULT IN TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND AND MID-UPPER
50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE WEDS
NIGHT-THURS AS A SRN STREAM WAVE LIFTS FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE
TN VALLEY. MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED THANKS TO INCREASING S-SE FLOW.
28/12Z ECMWF QUICKER WITH BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE REGION THURS
AFTERNOON. HAVE DROPPED POPS THURS AFTERNOON...BUT KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SSW FLOW WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPS
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 INLAND TO LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS
THURS. EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE THURS AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...CHANCE FOR PRECIP RAMP UP THURS NIGHT-FRI AS THE SRN
STREAM WAVE LIFTS OVER THE REGION. NRN STREAM WAVE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST ALSO PROGGED TO FLATTEN AND TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE THURS-THURS NIGHT. ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED SFC LOW LOCATES
OVER SERN CANADA THURS NIGHT-FRI MORNING...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE FRI-SAT TIMEFRAME. SPATIAL AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST...BUT WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS THRU SAT
MORNING. SLIGHT WARMER FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND
LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY.

SCT-BKN SC/CU DUE TO COLD AIR AT AROUND 6K FT. THIS CLOUD LAYER
SHOULD CLEAR NEAR SUNSET AS SURFACE HEATING ENDS. GUSTY NW WINDS
WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE WINDS
ONCE AGAIN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR IS FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. THERE WILL BE SLGT TO LOW
CHC FOR SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNS THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW PRESSURE LIFTING WELL OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
MIDWEST. ONGOING CAA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG NW WINDS OF 15-25
KT OVER THE WATER. WAVES AVG 2-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. SCA CONDITIONS
PERSIST THRU THE NIGHT THANKS TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CAA.
WAVES REMAIN 2-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SW OF THE
WATER EARLY FRI...WITH NW WINDS DIMINISHING AOB 15 KT BY MID
MORNING. SEAS SUBSIDE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
OF THE WATER SUN AFTERNOON...WITH FLOW BECOMING SLY AOB 10 KT LATE
SUN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MON
NIGHT...CROSSING THE WATER LATE MON-EARLY MON NIGHT. PREFRONTAL SLY
SURGE EXPECTED SUN NIGHT...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE
BAY AND 20 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. MODELS INDICATE SCA
CONDITIONS...BUT BASED ON WAA AND COLD WATER...EXPECT A SHARP LOW
LEVEL INVERSION TO PREVENT STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE
WATER. HAVE CAPPED SPEEDS BELOW SCA ATTM. SLY FETCH MAY PUSH SEAS
TO 5 FT IN THE NRN COASTAL WATERS MON MORNING. SWLY FLOW RETURNS
MON NIGHT- TUES. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION LATE TUES WITH ANOTHER FRONT CROSSING THE WATER EARLY WEDS
NIGHT. WINDS STAY AOB 15 KT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDS-THURS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY 3/29:

RIC...22/1923
ORF...25/1982
SBY...18/1923
ECG...24/1982

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAO
NEAR TERM...AJZ/JAO
SHORT TERM...AJZ/JAO
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 282013
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
413 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SETTLES OVER
THE AREA SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW FLURRIES AND SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES REMAIN OVER SE VA THIS
AFTERNOON..BUT WERE PUSHING OFFSHORE. ANOTHER AREA OF FLURRIES
WITH SOME RAIN WAS TRYING TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE LOWER MD EASTERN
SHORE...BUT THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN RATHER DRY. OVERALL DO NOT
EXPECT MORE THAN JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW FLURRIES...MAINLY
OVER THE MD EASTERN SHORE THIS EVENING. THE UPPER TROUGH HAS ALSO
SUPPORTED A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL AS OVER MD EASTERN SHORE. THESE CLOUDS COMBINED
WITH CAA AND GUSTY WINDS FROM THE PRES GRAD HAVE KEPT HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

SKIES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO CLEAR THIS EVENING  FROM SW-NE...WITH
MOST OF THE AREA BECOMING CLEAR ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL BAND OF SC
OFF THE BAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW AND WINDS
GRADUALLY DECREASE. WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF RAPIDLY WITH
SUNSET ESPECIALLY AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO DECREASE. HAVE DROPPED TEMPS
BY A DEGREE OR SO WITH SUNDAY MORNING LOWS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE LOW TO MID 20S...WITH UPPER 20S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS OF
SE VA/NE NC. CURRENT FORECAST LOWS ARE NOT RECORDS...BUT WILL BE
CLOSE DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH DECOUPLING AND CLEARING OCCURS. RECORD
VALUES ARE LISTED BELOW IN THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR REFERENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY...SUNNY...AND COOL CONDITIONS WITH A LIGHT NW
WIND BECOMING SW BY AFTERNOON. LIMITED MIXING WILL ONLY ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE
LOW 50S OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC. HAVE DROPPED HIGH BY A DEGREE OR
TWO BASED ON THE GUIDANCE...BUT EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE
WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLY PUSHING IN FROM THE NW LATE IN THE
DAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSS THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN. WITH THE LOW-
LEVEL AIRMASS STARTING OUT SO FRY AND RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
LIMITED...SO THERE IS ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY FOR -SHRA (~20-30%)
WITH RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS. MANY AREAS WILL
LIKELY ONLY SEE A TRACE OF THAT MUCH. THE BOUNDARY DROPS S OF THE
REGION EARLY MONDAY WITH DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW DEVELOPING MONDAY.
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EARLY SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY BY AFTERNOON. IMPROVED MIXING AND MORE SUN WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 60S E...TO MID/UPPER 60S
W. THIS WILL BE AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
DIRECTLY ACROSS THE REGION. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY MOST OF
THE DAY WITH HIGHS REMAINING NEAR 60 OVER EASTERN SHORE AND ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BETTER AGREEMENT IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO HANDLING
SPLIT FLOW COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO. TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED...GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS NOW WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE DROPPING INTO THE NRN MID-
ATLANTIC REGION LATE TUES NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PROGGED TO TRACK
ACROSS NRN VA/MD TUES NIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY WEDS MORNING. BEST MOISTURE/LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA...BUT WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE NE ZONES LATE TUES NIGHT CLOSEST TO BEST
MOISTURE/LIFT. SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT PUSH WELL OFFSHORE WEDS AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE REGION. MODEST CAA AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL RESULT IN TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND AND MID-UPPER
50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE WEDS
NIGHT-THURS AS A SRN STREAM WAVE LIFTS FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE
TN VALLEY. MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED THANKS TO INCREASING S-SE FLOW.
28/12Z ECMWF QUICKER WITH BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE REGION THURS
AFTERNOON. HAVE DROPPED POPS THURS AFTERNOON...BUT KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SSW FLOW WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPS
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 INLAND TO LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS
THURS. EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE THURS AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...CHANCE FOR PRECIP RAMP UP THURS NIGHT-FRI AS THE SRN
STREAM WAVE LIFTS OVER THE REGION. NRN STREAM WAVE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST ALSO PROGGED TO FLATTEN AND TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE THURS-THURS NIGHT. ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED SFC LOW LOCATES
OVER SERN CANADA THURS NIGHT-FRI MORNING...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE FRI-SAT TIMEFRAME. SPATIAL AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST...BUT WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS THRU SAT
MORNING. SLIGHT WARMER FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND
LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY.

SCT-BKN SC/CU DUE TO COLD AIR AT AROUND 6K FT. THIS CLOUD LAYER
SHOULD CLEAR NEAR SUNSET AS SURFACE HEATING ENDS. GUSTY NW WINDS
WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE WINDS
ONCE AGAIN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR IS FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. THERE WILL BE SLGT TO LOW
CHC FOR SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNS THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW PRESSURE LIFTING WELL OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
MIDWEST. ONGOING CAA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG NW WINDS OF 15-25
KT OVER THE WATER. WAVES AVG 2-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. SCA CONDITIONS
PERSIST THRU THE NIGHT THANKS TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CAA.
WAVES REMAIN 2-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SW OF THE
WATER EARLY FRI...WITH NW WINDS DIMINISHING AOB 15 KT BY MID
MORNING. SEAS SUBSIDE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
OF THE WATER SUN AFTERNOON...WITH FLOW BECOMING SLY AOB 10 KT LATE
SUN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MON
NIGHT...CROSSING THE WATER LATE MON-EARLY MON NIGHT. PREFRONTAL SLY
SURGE EXPECTED SUN NIGHT...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE
BAY AND 20 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. MODELS INDICATE SCA
CONDITIONS...BUT BASED ON WAA AND COLD WATER...EXPECT A SHARP LOW
LEVEL INVERSION TO PREVENT STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE
WATER. HAVE CAPPED SPEEDS BELOW SCA ATTM. SLY FETCH MAY PUSH SEAS
TO 5 FT IN THE NRN COASTAL WATERS MON MORNING. SWLY FLOW RETURNS
MON NIGHT- TUES. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION LATE TUES WITH ANOTHER FRONT CROSSING THE WATER EARLY WEDS
NIGHT. WINDS STAY AOB 15 KT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDS-THURS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY 3/29:

RIC...22/1923
ORF...25/1982
SBY...18/1923
ECG...24/1982

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAO
NEAR TERM...AJZ/JAO
SHORT TERM...AJZ/JAO
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281945
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
345 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SETTLES OVER
THE AREA SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY/...
A FEW FLURRIES AND SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES REMAIN OVER SE VA THIS
AFTERNOON..BUT WERE PUSHING OFFSHORE. ANOTHER AREA OF FLURRIES
WITH SOME RAIN WAS TRYING TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE LOWER MD EASTERN
SHORE...BUT THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN RATHER DRY. OVERALL DO NOT
EXPECT MORE THAN JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW FLURRIES...MAINLY
OVER THE MD EASTERN SHORE THIS EVENING. THE UPPER TROUGH HAS ALSO
SUPPORTED A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL AS OVER MD EASTERN SHORE. THESE CLOUDS COMBINED
WITH CAA AND GUSTY WINDS FROM THE PRES GRAD HAVE KEPT HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

SKIES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO CLEAR THIS EVENING  FROM SW-NE...WITH
MOST OF THE AREA BECOMING CLEAR ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL BAND OF SC
OFF THE BAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW AND WINDS
GRADUALLY DECREASE. WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF RAPIDLY WITH
SUNSET ESPECIALLY AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO DECREASE. HAVE DROPPED TEMPS
BY A DEGREE OR SO WITH SUNDAY MORNING LOWS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE LOW TO MID 20S...WITH UPPER 20S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS OF
SE VA/NE NC. CURRENT FORECAST LOWS ARE NOT RECORDS...BUT WILL BE
CLOSE DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH DECOUPLING AND CLEARING OCCURS. RECORD
VALUES ARE LISTED BELOW IN THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR REFERENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY...SUNNY...AND COOL CONDITIONS WITH A LIGHT NW
WIND BECOMING SW BY AFTERNOON. LIMITED MIXING WILL ONLY ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE
LOW 50S OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC. HAVE DROPPED HIGH BY A DEGREE ORTWO
BASED ON THE GUIDANCE...BUT EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE WITH
SOME HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLY PUSHING IN FROM THE NW LATE IN THE DAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSS THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN. WITH THE LOW-
LEVEL AIRMASS STARTING OUT SO FRY AND RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
LIMITED...SO THERE IS ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY FOR -SHRA (~20-30%)
WITH RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS. MANY AREAS WILL
LIKELY ONLY SEE A TRACE OF THAT MUCH. THE BOUNDARY DROPS S OF THE
REGION EARLY MONDAY WITH DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW DEVELOPING MONDAY.
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EARLY SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY BY AFTERNOON. IMPROVED MIXING AND MORE SUN WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 60S E...TO MID/UPPER 60S
W. THIS WILL BE AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
DIRECTLY ACROSS THE REGION. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY MOST OF
THE DAY WITH HIGHS REMAINING NEAR 60 OVER EASTERN SHORE AND ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN PREVAILS THRU THE EXTENDED...AS NRN STREAM
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACTIVE. THE FIRST NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE EXITS THE
COAST LATE MON NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE REACHING THE OH VALLEY
LATE TUES. ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND TUES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TRACK
OF THE NRN STREAM LOW...WITH THE 27/12Z GFS LIFTING IT THRU NE...THE
27/12Z ECMWF THRU THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND THE 27/12Z CMC
THRU NC. BASED ON THE OVERALL PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW...PREFER THE NRN TRACK...KEEPING THE FA DRY. ASSOCIATED WEAK
COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION TUES NIGHT-WEDS. LIMITED
MOISTURE AND LITTLE APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL RESULT IN A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE. UPPER/SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ERN CONUS WEDS.
THEREAFTER...MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE HANDLING OF A SRN STREAM SYSTEM
LIFTING FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE GULF STATES WEDS-WEDS NIGHT.
GFS QUICKER TO RETURN MOISTURE TO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATES OFF THE SE COAST WEDS-WEDS NIGHT...WHILE ITS ECMWF AND CMC
COUNTERPARTS ARE SLOWER WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN. THEREAFTER...THE
NEXT NRN STREAM SYSTEM PROGGED TO REACH THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY
LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT SPATIAL AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST...WITH THE GFS PUSHING THE FRONT THRU 18
HRS BEFORE THE ECMWF (FRI VS. SAT MORNING). WILL MAINTAIN LOW END
CHANCE POPS BEGINNING THURS. WILL CARRY LOW END CHANCE POPS THROUGH
FRI...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM.

TEMPS TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED WILL BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONABLE
NORMS...IN THE 60S INLAND AND UPPER 50S-LOW 60S ERN SHORE AND
COASTAL AREAS. THURS HIGHS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON POTENTIAL CLOUD
COVER/PRECIP. HAVE OPTED FOR A BLEND...RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 INLAND AND LOW-MID 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL
AREAS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY.

SCT-BKN SC/CU DUE TO COLD AIR AT AROUND 6K FT. THIS CLOUD LAYER
SHOULD CLEAR NEAR SUNSET AS SURFACE HEATING ENDS. GUSTY NW WINDS
WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE WINDS
ONCE AGAIN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR IS FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. THERE WILL BE SLGT TO LOW
CHC FOR SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNS THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS DEVELOPING LO PRES OFF THE VA/NC CST
WITH HI PRES OVER THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES STATES. WINDS ARE STARTING
TO PICK UP THIS MORNG OVER THE LOCAL WTRS IN ASSOCIATION WITH CAA
BEHIND THE OFFSHORE LO. FOR TDA INTO TNGT...EXPECT WINDS INCREASING
TO 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT OVER THE BAY/OCEAN...AND 15-25
KNOTS OVER THE RIVERS AND SOUND. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
OVER MOST WTRS THRU SUN MORN/MIDDAY UNTIL HI PRESS FINALLY BLDS OVER
THE WATERS. WAVES GENERALLY 3-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. NW WINDS SUBSIDE
TO 10-15 KT SUN AFTERNOON WITH SEAS DROPPING BELOW 5 FT. HIGH
PRESSURE QUICKLY PASSES OVER THE REGION SUN...AND THEN MOVES
OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT. FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SSW. THE NEXT (WEAK) COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W LATE SUN. SW FLOW INCREASES LATE SUN
NIGHT...WITH MODELS INDICATING SCA CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BASED ON
WAA AND COLD WATER...CONFIDENCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS IS NOT HI
ATTM...AND WILL AVOID ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW ALSO WITH THE CURRENT
HEADLINES OUT. VERY LITTLE CAA IN WAKE OF THE FRONT LATE SUN NIGHT-
MON MORNING SO SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THEN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY 3/29:

RIC...22/1923
ORF...25/1982
SBY...18/1923
ECG...24/1982

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAO
NEAR TERM...AJZ/JAO
SHORT TERM...AJZ/JAO
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281945
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
345 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SETTLES OVER
THE AREA SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY/...
A FEW FLURRIES AND SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES REMAIN OVER SE VA THIS
AFTERNOON..BUT WERE PUSHING OFFSHORE. ANOTHER AREA OF FLURRIES
WITH SOME RAIN WAS TRYING TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE LOWER MD EASTERN
SHORE...BUT THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN RATHER DRY. OVERALL DO NOT
EXPECT MORE THAN JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW FLURRIES...MAINLY
OVER THE MD EASTERN SHORE THIS EVENING. THE UPPER TROUGH HAS ALSO
SUPPORTED A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL AS OVER MD EASTERN SHORE. THESE CLOUDS COMBINED
WITH CAA AND GUSTY WINDS FROM THE PRES GRAD HAVE KEPT HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

SKIES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO CLEAR THIS EVENING  FROM SW-NE...WITH
MOST OF THE AREA BECOMING CLEAR ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL BAND OF SC
OFF THE BAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW AND WINDS
GRADUALLY DECREASE. WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF RAPIDLY WITH
SUNSET ESPECIALLY AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO DECREASE. HAVE DROPPED TEMPS
BY A DEGREE OR SO WITH SUNDAY MORNING LOWS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE LOW TO MID 20S...WITH UPPER 20S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS OF
SE VA/NE NC. CURRENT FORECAST LOWS ARE NOT RECORDS...BUT WILL BE
CLOSE DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH DECOUPLING AND CLEARING OCCURS. RECORD
VALUES ARE LISTED BELOW IN THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR REFERENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY...SUNNY...AND COOL CONDITIONS WITH A LIGHT NW
WIND BECOMING SW BY AFTERNOON. LIMITED MIXING WILL ONLY ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE
LOW 50S OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC. HAVE DROPPED HIGH BY A DEGREE ORTWO
BASED ON THE GUIDANCE...BUT EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE WITH
SOME HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLY PUSHING IN FROM THE NW LATE IN THE DAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSS THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN. WITH THE LOW-
LEVEL AIRMASS STARTING OUT SO FRY AND RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
LIMITED...SO THERE IS ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY FOR -SHRA (~20-30%)
WITH RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS. MANY AREAS WILL
LIKELY ONLY SEE A TRACE OF THAT MUCH. THE BOUNDARY DROPS S OF THE
REGION EARLY MONDAY WITH DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW DEVELOPING MONDAY.
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EARLY SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY BY AFTERNOON. IMPROVED MIXING AND MORE SUN WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 60S E...TO MID/UPPER 60S
W. THIS WILL BE AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
DIRECTLY ACROSS THE REGION. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY MOST OF
THE DAY WITH HIGHS REMAINING NEAR 60 OVER EASTERN SHORE AND ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN PREVAILS THRU THE EXTENDED...AS NRN STREAM
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACTIVE. THE FIRST NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE EXITS THE
COAST LATE MON NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE REACHING THE OH VALLEY
LATE TUES. ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND TUES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TRACK
OF THE NRN STREAM LOW...WITH THE 27/12Z GFS LIFTING IT THRU NE...THE
27/12Z ECMWF THRU THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND THE 27/12Z CMC
THRU NC. BASED ON THE OVERALL PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW...PREFER THE NRN TRACK...KEEPING THE FA DRY. ASSOCIATED WEAK
COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION TUES NIGHT-WEDS. LIMITED
MOISTURE AND LITTLE APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL RESULT IN A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE. UPPER/SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ERN CONUS WEDS.
THEREAFTER...MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE HANDLING OF A SRN STREAM SYSTEM
LIFTING FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE GULF STATES WEDS-WEDS NIGHT.
GFS QUICKER TO RETURN MOISTURE TO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATES OFF THE SE COAST WEDS-WEDS NIGHT...WHILE ITS ECMWF AND CMC
COUNTERPARTS ARE SLOWER WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN. THEREAFTER...THE
NEXT NRN STREAM SYSTEM PROGGED TO REACH THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY
LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT SPATIAL AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST...WITH THE GFS PUSHING THE FRONT THRU 18
HRS BEFORE THE ECMWF (FRI VS. SAT MORNING). WILL MAINTAIN LOW END
CHANCE POPS BEGINNING THURS. WILL CARRY LOW END CHANCE POPS THROUGH
FRI...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM.

TEMPS TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED WILL BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONABLE
NORMS...IN THE 60S INLAND AND UPPER 50S-LOW 60S ERN SHORE AND
COASTAL AREAS. THURS HIGHS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON POTENTIAL CLOUD
COVER/PRECIP. HAVE OPTED FOR A BLEND...RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 INLAND AND LOW-MID 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL
AREAS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY.

SCT-BKN SC/CU DUE TO COLD AIR AT AROUND 6K FT. THIS CLOUD LAYER
SHOULD CLEAR NEAR SUNSET AS SURFACE HEATING ENDS. GUSTY NW WINDS
WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE WINDS
ONCE AGAIN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR IS FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. THERE WILL BE SLGT TO LOW
CHC FOR SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNS THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS DEVELOPING LO PRES OFF THE VA/NC CST
WITH HI PRES OVER THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES STATES. WINDS ARE STARTING
TO PICK UP THIS MORNG OVER THE LOCAL WTRS IN ASSOCIATION WITH CAA
BEHIND THE OFFSHORE LO. FOR TDA INTO TNGT...EXPECT WINDS INCREASING
TO 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT OVER THE BAY/OCEAN...AND 15-25
KNOTS OVER THE RIVERS AND SOUND. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
OVER MOST WTRS THRU SUN MORN/MIDDAY UNTIL HI PRESS FINALLY BLDS OVER
THE WATERS. WAVES GENERALLY 3-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. NW WINDS SUBSIDE
TO 10-15 KT SUN AFTERNOON WITH SEAS DROPPING BELOW 5 FT. HIGH
PRESSURE QUICKLY PASSES OVER THE REGION SUN...AND THEN MOVES
OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT. FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SSW. THE NEXT (WEAK) COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W LATE SUN. SW FLOW INCREASES LATE SUN
NIGHT...WITH MODELS INDICATING SCA CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BASED ON
WAA AND COLD WATER...CONFIDENCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS IS NOT HI
ATTM...AND WILL AVOID ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW ALSO WITH THE CURRENT
HEADLINES OUT. VERY LITTLE CAA IN WAKE OF THE FRONT LATE SUN NIGHT-
MON MORNING SO SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THEN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY 3/29:

RIC...22/1923
ORF...25/1982
SBY...18/1923
ECG...24/1982

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAO
NEAR TERM...AJZ/JAO
SHORT TERM...AJZ/JAO
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KRNK 281929
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
329 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ON SUNDAY WILL MOVE
EAST AND CROSS THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM EDT SATURDAY...

1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BUILD SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. PATCHY LOW STRATO CU WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET.

UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...WINDS WILL DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT AND WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS...THE DRY AIR MASS WILL
RESULT IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. RECORD
LOWS TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING IN
LYNCHBURG...BLACKSBURG...DANVILLE...LEWISBURG AND BLUEFIELD.
(CLIMATE SECTION LISTED FOR REFERENCE AND ALSO NOTE THAT THE FROST
AND FREEZE PROGRAM HAS NOT BEGUN FOR OUR FORECAST AREA.)

AS THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS SOUTHEAST...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL LIMIT HEATING.
PLAYED HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO COOLER ADJMET VALUES FROM THE
THE LOWER 40S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM EDT SATURDAY...

EXPECT A FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY WITH MAINLY A THREAT OF SHOWERS. SOME COLDER AIR WILL
SNEAK IN ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS AND COULD PRODUCE SNOW...BUT NOTHING
OF SIGNIFICANCE.

ONCE THIS FRONT PASSES THE FLOW ALOFT STAYS A GENERAL WNW PATTERN.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ARRIVES BY TUESDAY ALTHOUGH MAIN MOISTURE WILL
STAY NORTH OF US. EXPECT MODERATING TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD WITH
LOWS AND HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...

MODELS VARY IN TERMS OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING TOWARD OUR
AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. BOTH 00Z/12Z ECMWF SHOW MORE
AMPLIFICATION WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF TX
WEDNESDAY WHICH IN A SPLIT FLOW APPEARS TO TAKE ON MORE NEGATIVE
TILT HEADING INTO THURSDAY OVER THE TN VALLEY. HPC APPEARS TO BE
LEANING TOWARD A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS/ENSEMBLE APPROACH. THIS
WILL DICTATE WHEN RAIN MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA.

BEFORE THIS SYSTEM...SFC HIGH SHOULD WEDGE SWD BRIEFLY WEDNESDAY
WITH SEASONABLY MILD DAY ON TAP. THIS HIGH DEPARTS THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST THURSDAY MORNING...WITH SURGE OF MOISTURE PUSHING NWD ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE PER SE FLOW. AT THIS TIME...THINK WILL SEE DRIER AIR
WITH LIMITED THREAT OF RAIN WED NIGHT BUT EXPECT AIRMASS TO MOISTEN
MORE INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH MAIN LIFT STAYING WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS. STILL LOOKING AT THE CHANCE OF RAIN FROM ALONG AND WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH POSSIBLY EWD EXTENT INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA
PER FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC EARLY ON BEFORE VEERING WINDS TURN MORE SW.

HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE MILD BUT COULD BE COOLER PER MORE CLOUDS AND
RAIN CHANCES. IF THE HIGH SLOWS DOWN OR SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH...THUS
ALLOWING LONGER EASTERLY FETCH...THEN TEMPS COULD BE 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER OUT EAST....BUT STILL JUST NEAR NORMAL.

AS WE HEAD INTO THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY THE FORECAST VARIES...THOUGH
THE NEW 12Z ECMWF SHOWS SIMILAR SETUP THAT THE 12Z GFS DOES WITH
FRONT ORIENTATION SETTING UP IN AN EAST-WEST FASHION WITH PARALLEL
FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS GOING TO KEEP THE AREA IN A UNSETTLED PATTERN
WITH NEXT MAIN LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY ARRIVING OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE
DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS IS THAT THE ECMWF SHOWS A STRONGER LOW
MOVING MORE NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE GFS HAS WEAKER
LOW MOVING ACROSS WV INTO NRN VA. THE ECMWF SOLUTION AS SUCH HAS
LESS QPF THAN THE GFS. NONETHELESS THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE COLD
THOUGH THE ECWMF IS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED AND COLDER THAN THE GFS.
COULD SEE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MTNS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
WINDS COULD GUST FROM THE NORTHWEST UP TO 30 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THESE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
AREA TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOME MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH AN ALBERTA CLIPPER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 455 AM EDT FRIDAY...

RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 29:

ROANOKE......19 IN 1982
BLACKSBURG...17 IN 2001
LYNCHBURG....23 IN 1923 AND 1982
DANVILLE.....23 IN 1966
BLUEFIELD....19 IN 1966 AND 1982
LEWISBURG....18 IN 1983

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/KK
CLIMATE...AMS/SK




000
FXUS61 KRNK 281929
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
329 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ON SUNDAY WILL MOVE
EAST AND CROSS THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM EDT SATURDAY...

1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BUILD SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. PATCHY LOW STRATO CU WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET.

UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...WINDS WILL DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT AND WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS...THE DRY AIR MASS WILL
RESULT IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. RECORD
LOWS TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING IN
LYNCHBURG...BLACKSBURG...DANVILLE...LEWISBURG AND BLUEFIELD.
(CLIMATE SECTION LISTED FOR REFERENCE AND ALSO NOTE THAT THE FROST
AND FREEZE PROGRAM HAS NOT BEGUN FOR OUR FORECAST AREA.)

AS THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS SOUTHEAST...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL LIMIT HEATING.
PLAYED HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO COOLER ADJMET VALUES FROM THE
THE LOWER 40S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM EDT SATURDAY...

EXPECT A FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY WITH MAINLY A THREAT OF SHOWERS. SOME COLDER AIR WILL
SNEAK IN ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS AND COULD PRODUCE SNOW...BUT NOTHING
OF SIGNIFICANCE.

ONCE THIS FRONT PASSES THE FLOW ALOFT STAYS A GENERAL WNW PATTERN.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ARRIVES BY TUESDAY ALTHOUGH MAIN MOISTURE WILL
STAY NORTH OF US. EXPECT MODERATING TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD WITH
LOWS AND HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...

MODELS VARY IN TERMS OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING TOWARD OUR
AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. BOTH 00Z/12Z ECMWF SHOW MORE
AMPLIFICATION WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF TX
WEDNESDAY WHICH IN A SPLIT FLOW APPEARS TO TAKE ON MORE NEGATIVE
TILT HEADING INTO THURSDAY OVER THE TN VALLEY. HPC APPEARS TO BE
LEANING TOWARD A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS/ENSEMBLE APPROACH. THIS
WILL DICTATE WHEN RAIN MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA.

BEFORE THIS SYSTEM...SFC HIGH SHOULD WEDGE SWD BRIEFLY WEDNESDAY
WITH SEASONABLY MILD DAY ON TAP. THIS HIGH DEPARTS THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST THURSDAY MORNING...WITH SURGE OF MOISTURE PUSHING NWD ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE PER SE FLOW. AT THIS TIME...THINK WILL SEE DRIER AIR
WITH LIMITED THREAT OF RAIN WED NIGHT BUT EXPECT AIRMASS TO MOISTEN
MORE INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH MAIN LIFT STAYING WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS. STILL LOOKING AT THE CHANCE OF RAIN FROM ALONG AND WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH POSSIBLY EWD EXTENT INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA
PER FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC EARLY ON BEFORE VEERING WINDS TURN MORE SW.

HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE MILD BUT COULD BE COOLER PER MORE CLOUDS AND
RAIN CHANCES. IF THE HIGH SLOWS DOWN OR SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH...THUS
ALLOWING LONGER EASTERLY FETCH...THEN TEMPS COULD BE 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER OUT EAST....BUT STILL JUST NEAR NORMAL.

AS WE HEAD INTO THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY THE FORECAST VARIES...THOUGH
THE NEW 12Z ECMWF SHOWS SIMILAR SETUP THAT THE 12Z GFS DOES WITH
FRONT ORIENTATION SETTING UP IN AN EAST-WEST FASHION WITH PARALLEL
FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS GOING TO KEEP THE AREA IN A UNSETTLED PATTERN
WITH NEXT MAIN LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY ARRIVING OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE
DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS IS THAT THE ECMWF SHOWS A STRONGER LOW
MOVING MORE NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE GFS HAS WEAKER
LOW MOVING ACROSS WV INTO NRN VA. THE ECMWF SOLUTION AS SUCH HAS
LESS QPF THAN THE GFS. NONETHELESS THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE COLD
THOUGH THE ECWMF IS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED AND COLDER THAN THE GFS.
COULD SEE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MTNS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
WINDS COULD GUST FROM THE NORTHWEST UP TO 30 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THESE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
AREA TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOME MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH AN ALBERTA CLIPPER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 455 AM EDT FRIDAY...

RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 29:

ROANOKE......19 IN 1982
BLACKSBURG...17 IN 2001
LYNCHBURG....23 IN 1923 AND 1982
DANVILLE.....23 IN 1966
BLUEFIELD....19 IN 1966 AND 1982
LEWISBURG....18 IN 1983

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/KK
CLIMATE...AMS/SK



000
FXUS61 KRNK 281929
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
329 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ON SUNDAY WILL MOVE
EAST AND CROSS THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM EDT SATURDAY...

1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BUILD SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. PATCHY LOW STRATO CU WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET.

UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...WINDS WILL DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT AND WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS...THE DRY AIR MASS WILL
RESULT IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. RECORD
LOWS TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING IN
LYNCHBURG...BLACKSBURG...DANVILLE...LEWISBURG AND BLUEFIELD.
(CLIMATE SECTION LISTED FOR REFERENCE AND ALSO NOTE THAT THE FROST
AND FREEZE PROGRAM HAS NOT BEGUN FOR OUR FORECAST AREA.)

AS THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS SOUTHEAST...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL LIMIT HEATING.
PLAYED HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO COOLER ADJMET VALUES FROM THE
THE LOWER 40S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM EDT SATURDAY...

EXPECT A FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY WITH MAINLY A THREAT OF SHOWERS. SOME COLDER AIR WILL
SNEAK IN ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS AND COULD PRODUCE SNOW...BUT NOTHING
OF SIGNIFICANCE.

ONCE THIS FRONT PASSES THE FLOW ALOFT STAYS A GENERAL WNW PATTERN.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ARRIVES BY TUESDAY ALTHOUGH MAIN MOISTURE WILL
STAY NORTH OF US. EXPECT MODERATING TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD WITH
LOWS AND HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...

MODELS VARY IN TERMS OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING TOWARD OUR
AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. BOTH 00Z/12Z ECMWF SHOW MORE
AMPLIFICATION WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF TX
WEDNESDAY WHICH IN A SPLIT FLOW APPEARS TO TAKE ON MORE NEGATIVE
TILT HEADING INTO THURSDAY OVER THE TN VALLEY. HPC APPEARS TO BE
LEANING TOWARD A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS/ENSEMBLE APPROACH. THIS
WILL DICTATE WHEN RAIN MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA.

BEFORE THIS SYSTEM...SFC HIGH SHOULD WEDGE SWD BRIEFLY WEDNESDAY
WITH SEASONABLY MILD DAY ON TAP. THIS HIGH DEPARTS THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST THURSDAY MORNING...WITH SURGE OF MOISTURE PUSHING NWD ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE PER SE FLOW. AT THIS TIME...THINK WILL SEE DRIER AIR
WITH LIMITED THREAT OF RAIN WED NIGHT BUT EXPECT AIRMASS TO MOISTEN
MORE INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH MAIN LIFT STAYING WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS. STILL LOOKING AT THE CHANCE OF RAIN FROM ALONG AND WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH POSSIBLY EWD EXTENT INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA
PER FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC EARLY ON BEFORE VEERING WINDS TURN MORE SW.

HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE MILD BUT COULD BE COOLER PER MORE CLOUDS AND
RAIN CHANCES. IF THE HIGH SLOWS DOWN OR SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH...THUS
ALLOWING LONGER EASTERLY FETCH...THEN TEMPS COULD BE 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER OUT EAST....BUT STILL JUST NEAR NORMAL.

AS WE HEAD INTO THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY THE FORECAST VARIES...THOUGH
THE NEW 12Z ECMWF SHOWS SIMILAR SETUP THAT THE 12Z GFS DOES WITH
FRONT ORIENTATION SETTING UP IN AN EAST-WEST FASHION WITH PARALLEL
FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS GOING TO KEEP THE AREA IN A UNSETTLED PATTERN
WITH NEXT MAIN LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY ARRIVING OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE
DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS IS THAT THE ECMWF SHOWS A STRONGER LOW
MOVING MORE NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE GFS HAS WEAKER
LOW MOVING ACROSS WV INTO NRN VA. THE ECMWF SOLUTION AS SUCH HAS
LESS QPF THAN THE GFS. NONETHELESS THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE COLD
THOUGH THE ECWMF IS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED AND COLDER THAN THE GFS.
COULD SEE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MTNS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
WINDS COULD GUST FROM THE NORTHWEST UP TO 30 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THESE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
AREA TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOME MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH AN ALBERTA CLIPPER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 455 AM EDT FRIDAY...

RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 29:

ROANOKE......19 IN 1982
BLACKSBURG...17 IN 2001
LYNCHBURG....23 IN 1923 AND 1982
DANVILLE.....23 IN 1966
BLUEFIELD....19 IN 1966 AND 1982
LEWISBURG....18 IN 1983

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/KK
CLIMATE...AMS/SK




000
FXUS61 KRNK 281929
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
329 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ON SUNDAY WILL MOVE
EAST AND CROSS THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM EDT SATURDAY...

1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BUILD SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. PATCHY LOW STRATO CU WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET.

UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...WINDS WILL DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT AND WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS...THE DRY AIR MASS WILL
RESULT IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. RECORD
LOWS TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING IN
LYNCHBURG...BLACKSBURG...DANVILLE...LEWISBURG AND BLUEFIELD.
(CLIMATE SECTION LISTED FOR REFERENCE AND ALSO NOTE THAT THE FROST
AND FREEZE PROGRAM HAS NOT BEGUN FOR OUR FORECAST AREA.)

AS THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS SOUTHEAST...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL LIMIT HEATING.
PLAYED HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO COOLER ADJMET VALUES FROM THE
THE LOWER 40S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM EDT SATURDAY...

EXPECT A FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY WITH MAINLY A THREAT OF SHOWERS. SOME COLDER AIR WILL
SNEAK IN ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS AND COULD PRODUCE SNOW...BUT NOTHING
OF SIGNIFICANCE.

ONCE THIS FRONT PASSES THE FLOW ALOFT STAYS A GENERAL WNW PATTERN.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ARRIVES BY TUESDAY ALTHOUGH MAIN MOISTURE WILL
STAY NORTH OF US. EXPECT MODERATING TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD WITH
LOWS AND HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...

MODELS VARY IN TERMS OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING TOWARD OUR
AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. BOTH 00Z/12Z ECMWF SHOW MORE
AMPLIFICATION WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF TX
WEDNESDAY WHICH IN A SPLIT FLOW APPEARS TO TAKE ON MORE NEGATIVE
TILT HEADING INTO THURSDAY OVER THE TN VALLEY. HPC APPEARS TO BE
LEANING TOWARD A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS/ENSEMBLE APPROACH. THIS
WILL DICTATE WHEN RAIN MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA.

BEFORE THIS SYSTEM...SFC HIGH SHOULD WEDGE SWD BRIEFLY WEDNESDAY
WITH SEASONABLY MILD DAY ON TAP. THIS HIGH DEPARTS THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST THURSDAY MORNING...WITH SURGE OF MOISTURE PUSHING NWD ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE PER SE FLOW. AT THIS TIME...THINK WILL SEE DRIER AIR
WITH LIMITED THREAT OF RAIN WED NIGHT BUT EXPECT AIRMASS TO MOISTEN
MORE INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH MAIN LIFT STAYING WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS. STILL LOOKING AT THE CHANCE OF RAIN FROM ALONG AND WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH POSSIBLY EWD EXTENT INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA
PER FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC EARLY ON BEFORE VEERING WINDS TURN MORE SW.

HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE MILD BUT COULD BE COOLER PER MORE CLOUDS AND
RAIN CHANCES. IF THE HIGH SLOWS DOWN OR SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH...THUS
ALLOWING LONGER EASTERLY FETCH...THEN TEMPS COULD BE 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER OUT EAST....BUT STILL JUST NEAR NORMAL.

AS WE HEAD INTO THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY THE FORECAST VARIES...THOUGH
THE NEW 12Z ECMWF SHOWS SIMILAR SETUP THAT THE 12Z GFS DOES WITH
FRONT ORIENTATION SETTING UP IN AN EAST-WEST FASHION WITH PARALLEL
FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS GOING TO KEEP THE AREA IN A UNSETTLED PATTERN
WITH NEXT MAIN LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY ARRIVING OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE
DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS IS THAT THE ECMWF SHOWS A STRONGER LOW
MOVING MORE NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE GFS HAS WEAKER
LOW MOVING ACROSS WV INTO NRN VA. THE ECMWF SOLUTION AS SUCH HAS
LESS QPF THAN THE GFS. NONETHELESS THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE COLD
THOUGH THE ECWMF IS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED AND COLDER THAN THE GFS.
COULD SEE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MTNS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
WINDS COULD GUST FROM THE NORTHWEST UP TO 30 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THESE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
AREA TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOME MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH AN ALBERTA CLIPPER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 455 AM EDT FRIDAY...

RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 29:

ROANOKE......19 IN 1982
BLACKSBURG...17 IN 2001
LYNCHBURG....23 IN 1923 AND 1982
DANVILLE.....23 IN 1966
BLUEFIELD....19 IN 1966 AND 1982
LEWISBURG....18 IN 1983

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/KK
CLIMATE...AMS/SK



000
FXUS61 KLWX 281914
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
314 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ARRIVING ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LTST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A SHARP UPR TROF AXIS ACRS THE NERN
CONUS TAFTN. EMBEDDED W/IN THIS AXIS IS A S/WV ENTERING WRN PA. A
CONCENTRATION OF CLDS EVIDENT ON VSBL SATPIX...AND IT APPEARS AS THO
THERE ARE ACCOMPANYING FLURRIES ON RGNL RADARS. 12Z NAM/GFS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SWINGING THIS FEATURE ACRS MD LT TAFTN INTO ELY THIS EVNG.
WHERE DIFFS LAY RELATE TO THE AMT OF ASSOCD MSTR.

ITS TRUE THAT IN THE WAKE OF THE MRNG TROF DEWPTS HV DROPPED...AND
HV VALUES NEAR 10F ACRS A SIZEABLE PORTION OF THE CWFA ATTM.  THAT
WL DO A GOOD JOB EATING AWAY AT ANY PCPN THAT ATTEMPTS TO FALL.
HWVR...PVA IMPRESSIVE AND ITS TIMED IN SYNCH WITH BEST DAYTIME
HEATING. THUS WOULD BE INCLINED TO BELIEVE THAT SOMETHING WL REACH
THE GRND. THE MORE GENEROUS GFS QPF FIELDS KEEPING TRUE TO ITS
TENDENCY TO BE WETTER...WHICH THIS MRNG PROVED TO BE THE BETTER
FCST. STATISTICAL GDNC ON THE OTHER HAND WUD TEND TO WASH OUT SUCH
SMALL SCALE FEATURES. THEREFORE...NEW DATABASE GRIDS ALIGNED WITH
THIS MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLN.

TEMPS TAFTN WARMER THAN THE MRNG ROUND...BUT BY NO MEANS WUD IT BE
CONSIDERED WARM-- JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE TRAPPED IN THE 30S.
THEREFORE ANY FALLING PCPN WUD LIKELY BE PARTIALLY IF NOT COMPLETELY
FROZEN. TIME OF YEAR AND TEMP OF AMS ALOFT SUGGEST GRAUPEL A
CONSIDERATION. WL STICK W/ SHSN OR SHRASN FOR SIMPLICITY. BEST
TIMING WOULD BE 20-00Z BASED ON MEAN VORT POSN. AFTR SUNSET...POTL
SHUD WANE.

IN THE WAKE OF THE VORT...EXPECT MEAN LYR RH TO THIN...WHICH WHEN
FACTORED W/ LOSS OF DIURNAL CLDS AND NVA...CLDS SHUD RAPIDLY
DECREASE. STILL A DECENT P-GRAD SO WINDS SHUD BECOME LESS BUT WL
STILL BE A FACTOR. CONSIDERING IMPACT OF CAA AND CURRENT TEMPS...
WENT ON THE COOL SIDE OF MOS MEAN EVEN W/O GOOD DCPLG. THUS MIN-T IN
THE TEENS COMMONPLACE BLURDG WWD.

WL BE UNDER TRANSITORY SFC HIPRES SUNDAY W/ BLDG HGTS ALOFT. THAT
SHUD BE A FVRBL COMBO...MOSUN SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS. MOS MEAN NOT
FAR OFF FM PRVS FCST...SO A BLEND WAS TAKEN. MAXT MAY EXCEED 50F IN
OUR VA CNTYS...STILL MORE THAN 10 DEGF BLO AVG BUT 10+ DEGF WARMER
THAN TDA. IN ADDITION...WNDS ARND 5 KT WUD MEAN NOT MUCH OF A WIND
CHILL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

AFTER YET ANOTHER REMINDER WINTER HASN`T COMPLETELY LEFT...THE START
OF THE WORK WEEK WILL HAVE MORE OF A SPRING-LIKE REBOUND. LOWS SUN
NIGHT INTO MON MORNING WILL BE COLD...NEAR FREEZING IN MOST AREAS
BRIEFLY - AND ALSO STARTING OFF CLOUDY W/ AN UPPER WAVE PASSAGE. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF UPSLOPE PRECIP...AND SOME LIGHT SNOW AND/OR RAIN
SHOWERS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SRN FRINGE OF THE AREA. GOOD GUIDANCE
AGREEMENT THAT THE APLCNS EFFICIENTLY DISPERSE MUCH OF THE PRECIP AS
THE UPPER WAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT QUICKLY PASSES OVERHEAD. SOME WEAK
LLJ DYNAMICS AND SOME LIMITED  THE WINDS WILL THEN KICK-IN SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE...LOW LEVEL - BUT INCREASING - MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO
ALLOW FOR SOME PRECIP DEVELOP ACROSS OUR SRN FRINGE BRIEFLY EARLY
MON. A LIGHT AND BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE OVER SRN MD/DELMARVA
BEFORE DAWN...THEN THIS ACTIVITY QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE COAST.

IN ITS WAKE WILL BE CLEARING SKIES OVER THE AREA AND A BREEZY WLY
WIND THAT WILL KEEP THE HIGHER TERRAIN COOLER BUT THE DOWNSLOPING
EFFECT IN THE VLYS/LOWLANDS WILL HELP HIGH TEMPS REACH THE M-U50S BY
AFTN. WINDS WILL GUST IN THE 20-30KT RANGE ACROSS THE AREA...ESPEC
ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE AND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. NOT
ANTICIPATING WIND ADVISORY CONDS BUT IT COULD BE WARRANTED FOR
HIGHER TERRAIN. MON NIGHT...TEMPS WILL AGAIN DROP TOWARD THE
FREEZING MARK...EVEN W/ A RELATIVELY HIGHER DEWPOINT FIELD ACROSS
THE REGION.

AS WINDS DROP OFF FROM THE MONDAY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...TUE WILL
START OFF MUCH MORE CALM BUT STILL COLD. TEMPS WILL QUICKLY CLIMB
BACK THRU THE 40S AND 50S ON THE WAY TO HIGHS IN NEAR 60F BEFORE YET
ANOTHER UPPER WAVE PASSAGE. ODDLY THE 12Z VERSIONS OF THE EURO AND
GFS TRADED SOLUTIONS FROM THEIR 06Z RUNS. THE LATEST GFS TOOK THE
MINOR UPPER WAVE ELONGATED MORE LATITUDINALLY AND MADE IT THE
FURTHER NORTH COMPACT LOW SPREADING DIRECTLY OVER PA AND TOUCHING
OUR NRN FRINGE. THE 12Z EURO IS THE OPPOSITE. THEIR ALGORITHMS ALSO
MAKE A DECENT PERCENTAGE OF THE MODEL PRECIP INTO SNOW...ESPEC OVER
THE NRN REACHES OF THE PRECIP BATCH. THE TROUBLE W/ THE STRONGER OF
THE SOLUTIONS - WHICH WOULD BE THE POTENT AND MORE COMPACT SYSTEM TO
THE NORTH IS THAT IT WOULD ILLICIT A STRONGER WAA REGION OUT AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM. THE WARMER AIR ENTRAINED INTO THE PORTION OF THE
SYSTEM SPREADING ACROSS OUR REGION WOULD HAVE A LOWER POTENTIAL FOR
FROZEN PRECIP W/ HIGHS REACHING THE 50S/L60S JUST AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM. NOT AN INTENSE TEMP PLUNGE EXPECTED W/ THIS FEATURE EITHER
WAY...W/ TEMPS DROPPING AT AN AVERAGE PACE INTO THE U30S/L40S. THE
ADVECTION PATTERN ALSO NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG ACCORDING TO THESE
SAME MODELS...WHICH KEEPS THE SFC WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGHOUT THIS
EPISODE.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS COULD LINGER ALONG THE MASON DIXON REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY SOUTHWARD AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40...NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY
APRIL.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE
NEAR 60 TO THE MIDDLE 60S.

AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST COAST AND OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH
THE MIDDLE 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH 70
DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THURSDAY.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
BEFORE SLOWING DOWN AND DRAGGING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCAL ZONE OF
DEVELOPING RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO
LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MILD
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MIDDLE 60S FRIDAY.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY AS LATE AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT
AND PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING PROLONGED CHANCES OF RAIN
SHOWERS OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM. TIMING IS UNCERTAIN AS TO THIS
LOW`S DEVELOPMENT AND ITS LOCATION OR PROGRESS...NONETHELESS...THE
RAIN CHANCES LINGER ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

VFR CONDS WL GENERALLY PREVAIL THRU TMRW. HWVR...CANNOT GUARANTEE A
DRY FCST. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS...OF RAIN OR SNOW OR EVEN
GRAUPEL...LATE THIS AFTN TO NEAR SUNSET SPCLY NEAR BWI/MTN. HWVR
CONFIDENCE AND AREAL CVRG PRECLUDE ANY RESTRICTIONS IN TAFS. DID
PLACE WX IN TAF FOR MTN/BWI NEAR TIME OF MOST LKLY OCCURENCE...20-
23Z. ANY RESTRICTIONS WUD BE BRIEF AND LIMITED...MOST LKLY NO LWR
THAN MVFR.

WINDS WL BE THE LARGER SCALE ISSUE...WITH NW WINDS 15 KT GUSTING UP
TO 25-30 KT. THE GUSTS WL SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT THIS EVNG...BUT WL STILL
HV 10-15 KT WINDS INTO TMRW.

DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WINDS WL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 10 KT AND
VEERING SW. FEW IF ANY CLDS XPCTD.

A FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU EARLY MON MRNG...W/ LITTLE
IF ANY PRECIP BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF OVC MID CLOUDS THAT BREAK UP AND
MOVE E QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. SFC AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS EXPECTED
IN THE 30-40KT RANGE W/ SOME 20-25KT GUSTS AT THE SFC DURING THE
DAYTIME HRS.

MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT MTN AND BWI TERMINALS TUESDAY NIGHT
DUE TO LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS NEAR A FRONT...OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TUESDAY NIGHT BECOMING NORTHWEST AND GUSTING TO 15 KNOTS
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

SOLID SCA CONDS ATTM CONTG THRU THIS EVNG. WINDS WL BE SLOWLY
SUBSIDING OVNGT AND SUNDAY MRNG. HV SCALED BACK SCA AT MIDNGT FOR
THE MID-UPR PTMC. CONTD THE REST INTO SUN MRNG...AND CONTD MID BAY
INTO SUNDAY AFTN. PASSING HIPRES WL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR DIMINISHING
WINDS DURING THE DAY.

A COLD FRONT CROSSES OVER THE AREA EARLY MON MRNG...W/ SCA CONDS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...WEST WINDS WILL AGAIN PICK UP
INTO SOLID SCA RANGES AND POSSIBLE GALES FOR THE DAYTIME HRS MON.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT INTO TUE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TUE...W/ A PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA GUSTS
POSSIBLE.

NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS MAY
GUST TO 15 KNOTS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

WATER LVLS AS LOW AS A FOOT BELOW ASTRO PREDICTIONS IN THE NRN BAY
AND 1.5 FT IN THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC ATTM. THIS NEGATIVE DEPARTURE
WILL ONLY INCREASE AS STRONG NW WINDS RESULT IN BLOW-OUT CONDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...

TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING MAY APPROACH THE RECORD LOWS FOR THE
DATE. CURRENTLY THE FORECAST LOWS ARE ABOVE THESE RECORDS...ASIDE
FROM DULLES. IF THE LOW DROPS TO 21 OR LESS AT DULLES IT WOULD BE
THE COLDEST SO LATE IN THE SEASON SINCE 1987...AND IF THE LOW
DROPS TO 24 OR LESS AT BWI IT WOULD BE THE COLDEST SO LATE IN THE
SEASON SINCE 1985.

SITE...3/29 RECORD MIN T...
DCA......18 (1923).........
BWI......18 (1923).........
IAD......20 (1982).........

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NWR PIKESVILLE HAS RETURNED TO SERVICE AFTER TOWER WORK TODAY.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ530>532-
     537>540-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ533-534-541-
     543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...HTS/GMS/KLW
MARINE...HTS/GMS/KLW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS
CLIMATE...DFH/JE/HTS
EQUIPMENT...HTS



000
FXUS61 KLWX 281914
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
314 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ARRIVING ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LTST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A SHARP UPR TROF AXIS ACRS THE NERN
CONUS TAFTN. EMBEDDED W/IN THIS AXIS IS A S/WV ENTERING WRN PA. A
CONCENTRATION OF CLDS EVIDENT ON VSBL SATPIX...AND IT APPEARS AS THO
THERE ARE ACCOMPANYING FLURRIES ON RGNL RADARS. 12Z NAM/GFS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SWINGING THIS FEATURE ACRS MD LT TAFTN INTO ELY THIS EVNG.
WHERE DIFFS LAY RELATE TO THE AMT OF ASSOCD MSTR.

ITS TRUE THAT IN THE WAKE OF THE MRNG TROF DEWPTS HV DROPPED...AND
HV VALUES NEAR 10F ACRS A SIZEABLE PORTION OF THE CWFA ATTM.  THAT
WL DO A GOOD JOB EATING AWAY AT ANY PCPN THAT ATTEMPTS TO FALL.
HWVR...PVA IMPRESSIVE AND ITS TIMED IN SYNCH WITH BEST DAYTIME
HEATING. THUS WOULD BE INCLINED TO BELIEVE THAT SOMETHING WL REACH
THE GRND. THE MORE GENEROUS GFS QPF FIELDS KEEPING TRUE TO ITS
TENDENCY TO BE WETTER...WHICH THIS MRNG PROVED TO BE THE BETTER
FCST. STATISTICAL GDNC ON THE OTHER HAND WUD TEND TO WASH OUT SUCH
SMALL SCALE FEATURES. THEREFORE...NEW DATABASE GRIDS ALIGNED WITH
THIS MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLN.

TEMPS TAFTN WARMER THAN THE MRNG ROUND...BUT BY NO MEANS WUD IT BE
CONSIDERED WARM-- JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE TRAPPED IN THE 30S.
THEREFORE ANY FALLING PCPN WUD LIKELY BE PARTIALLY IF NOT COMPLETELY
FROZEN. TIME OF YEAR AND TEMP OF AMS ALOFT SUGGEST GRAUPEL A
CONSIDERATION. WL STICK W/ SHSN OR SHRASN FOR SIMPLICITY. BEST
TIMING WOULD BE 20-00Z BASED ON MEAN VORT POSN. AFTR SUNSET...POTL
SHUD WANE.

IN THE WAKE OF THE VORT...EXPECT MEAN LYR RH TO THIN...WHICH WHEN
FACTORED W/ LOSS OF DIURNAL CLDS AND NVA...CLDS SHUD RAPIDLY
DECREASE. STILL A DECENT P-GRAD SO WINDS SHUD BECOME LESS BUT WL
STILL BE A FACTOR. CONSIDERING IMPACT OF CAA AND CURRENT TEMPS...
WENT ON THE COOL SIDE OF MOS MEAN EVEN W/O GOOD DCPLG. THUS MIN-T IN
THE TEENS COMMONPLACE BLURDG WWD.

WL BE UNDER TRANSITORY SFC HIPRES SUNDAY W/ BLDG HGTS ALOFT. THAT
SHUD BE A FVRBL COMBO...MOSUN SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS. MOS MEAN NOT
FAR OFF FM PRVS FCST...SO A BLEND WAS TAKEN. MAXT MAY EXCEED 50F IN
OUR VA CNTYS...STILL MORE THAN 10 DEGF BLO AVG BUT 10+ DEGF WARMER
THAN TDA. IN ADDITION...WNDS ARND 5 KT WUD MEAN NOT MUCH OF A WIND
CHILL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

AFTER YET ANOTHER REMINDER WINTER HASN`T COMPLETELY LEFT...THE START
OF THE WORK WEEK WILL HAVE MORE OF A SPRING-LIKE REBOUND. LOWS SUN
NIGHT INTO MON MORNING WILL BE COLD...NEAR FREEZING IN MOST AREAS
BRIEFLY - AND ALSO STARTING OFF CLOUDY W/ AN UPPER WAVE PASSAGE. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF UPSLOPE PRECIP...AND SOME LIGHT SNOW AND/OR RAIN
SHOWERS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SRN FRINGE OF THE AREA. GOOD GUIDANCE
AGREEMENT THAT THE APLCNS EFFICIENTLY DISPERSE MUCH OF THE PRECIP AS
THE UPPER WAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT QUICKLY PASSES OVERHEAD. SOME WEAK
LLJ DYNAMICS AND SOME LIMITED  THE WINDS WILL THEN KICK-IN SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE...LOW LEVEL - BUT INCREASING - MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO
ALLOW FOR SOME PRECIP DEVELOP ACROSS OUR SRN FRINGE BRIEFLY EARLY
MON. A LIGHT AND BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE OVER SRN MD/DELMARVA
BEFORE DAWN...THEN THIS ACTIVITY QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE COAST.

IN ITS WAKE WILL BE CLEARING SKIES OVER THE AREA AND A BREEZY WLY
WIND THAT WILL KEEP THE HIGHER TERRAIN COOLER BUT THE DOWNSLOPING
EFFECT IN THE VLYS/LOWLANDS WILL HELP HIGH TEMPS REACH THE M-U50S BY
AFTN. WINDS WILL GUST IN THE 20-30KT RANGE ACROSS THE AREA...ESPEC
ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE AND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. NOT
ANTICIPATING WIND ADVISORY CONDS BUT IT COULD BE WARRANTED FOR
HIGHER TERRAIN. MON NIGHT...TEMPS WILL AGAIN DROP TOWARD THE
FREEZING MARK...EVEN W/ A RELATIVELY HIGHER DEWPOINT FIELD ACROSS
THE REGION.

AS WINDS DROP OFF FROM THE MONDAY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...TUE WILL
START OFF MUCH MORE CALM BUT STILL COLD. TEMPS WILL QUICKLY CLIMB
BACK THRU THE 40S AND 50S ON THE WAY TO HIGHS IN NEAR 60F BEFORE YET
ANOTHER UPPER WAVE PASSAGE. ODDLY THE 12Z VERSIONS OF THE EURO AND
GFS TRADED SOLUTIONS FROM THEIR 06Z RUNS. THE LATEST GFS TOOK THE
MINOR UPPER WAVE ELONGATED MORE LATITUDINALLY AND MADE IT THE
FURTHER NORTH COMPACT LOW SPREADING DIRECTLY OVER PA AND TOUCHING
OUR NRN FRINGE. THE 12Z EURO IS THE OPPOSITE. THEIR ALGORITHMS ALSO
MAKE A DECENT PERCENTAGE OF THE MODEL PRECIP INTO SNOW...ESPEC OVER
THE NRN REACHES OF THE PRECIP BATCH. THE TROUBLE W/ THE STRONGER OF
THE SOLUTIONS - WHICH WOULD BE THE POTENT AND MORE COMPACT SYSTEM TO
THE NORTH IS THAT IT WOULD ILLICIT A STRONGER WAA REGION OUT AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM. THE WARMER AIR ENTRAINED INTO THE PORTION OF THE
SYSTEM SPREADING ACROSS OUR REGION WOULD HAVE A LOWER POTENTIAL FOR
FROZEN PRECIP W/ HIGHS REACHING THE 50S/L60S JUST AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM. NOT AN INTENSE TEMP PLUNGE EXPECTED W/ THIS FEATURE EITHER
WAY...W/ TEMPS DROPPING AT AN AVERAGE PACE INTO THE U30S/L40S. THE
ADVECTION PATTERN ALSO NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG ACCORDING TO THESE
SAME MODELS...WHICH KEEPS THE SFC WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGHOUT THIS
EPISODE.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS COULD LINGER ALONG THE MASON DIXON REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY SOUTHWARD AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40...NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY
APRIL.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE
NEAR 60 TO THE MIDDLE 60S.

AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST COAST AND OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH
THE MIDDLE 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH 70
DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THURSDAY.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
BEFORE SLOWING DOWN AND DRAGGING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCAL ZONE OF
DEVELOPING RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO
LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MILD
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MIDDLE 60S FRIDAY.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY AS LATE AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT
AND PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING PROLONGED CHANCES OF RAIN
SHOWERS OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM. TIMING IS UNCERTAIN AS TO THIS
LOW`S DEVELOPMENT AND ITS LOCATION OR PROGRESS...NONETHELESS...THE
RAIN CHANCES LINGER ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

VFR CONDS WL GENERALLY PREVAIL THRU TMRW. HWVR...CANNOT GUARANTEE A
DRY FCST. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS...OF RAIN OR SNOW OR EVEN
GRAUPEL...LATE THIS AFTN TO NEAR SUNSET SPCLY NEAR BWI/MTN. HWVR
CONFIDENCE AND AREAL CVRG PRECLUDE ANY RESTRICTIONS IN TAFS. DID
PLACE WX IN TAF FOR MTN/BWI NEAR TIME OF MOST LKLY OCCURENCE...20-
23Z. ANY RESTRICTIONS WUD BE BRIEF AND LIMITED...MOST LKLY NO LWR
THAN MVFR.

WINDS WL BE THE LARGER SCALE ISSUE...WITH NW WINDS 15 KT GUSTING UP
TO 25-30 KT. THE GUSTS WL SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT THIS EVNG...BUT WL STILL
HV 10-15 KT WINDS INTO TMRW.

DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WINDS WL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 10 KT AND
VEERING SW. FEW IF ANY CLDS XPCTD.

A FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU EARLY MON MRNG...W/ LITTLE
IF ANY PRECIP BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF OVC MID CLOUDS THAT BREAK UP AND
MOVE E QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. SFC AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS EXPECTED
IN THE 30-40KT RANGE W/ SOME 20-25KT GUSTS AT THE SFC DURING THE
DAYTIME HRS.

MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT MTN AND BWI TERMINALS TUESDAY NIGHT
DUE TO LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS NEAR A FRONT...OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TUESDAY NIGHT BECOMING NORTHWEST AND GUSTING TO 15 KNOTS
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

SOLID SCA CONDS ATTM CONTG THRU THIS EVNG. WINDS WL BE SLOWLY
SUBSIDING OVNGT AND SUNDAY MRNG. HV SCALED BACK SCA AT MIDNGT FOR
THE MID-UPR PTMC. CONTD THE REST INTO SUN MRNG...AND CONTD MID BAY
INTO SUNDAY AFTN. PASSING HIPRES WL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR DIMINISHING
WINDS DURING THE DAY.

A COLD FRONT CROSSES OVER THE AREA EARLY MON MRNG...W/ SCA CONDS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...WEST WINDS WILL AGAIN PICK UP
INTO SOLID SCA RANGES AND POSSIBLE GALES FOR THE DAYTIME HRS MON.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT INTO TUE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TUE...W/ A PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA GUSTS
POSSIBLE.

NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS MAY
GUST TO 15 KNOTS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

WATER LVLS AS LOW AS A FOOT BELOW ASTRO PREDICTIONS IN THE NRN BAY
AND 1.5 FT IN THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC ATTM. THIS NEGATIVE DEPARTURE
WILL ONLY INCREASE AS STRONG NW WINDS RESULT IN BLOW-OUT CONDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...

TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING MAY APPROACH THE RECORD LOWS FOR THE
DATE. CURRENTLY THE FORECAST LOWS ARE ABOVE THESE RECORDS...ASIDE
FROM DULLES. IF THE LOW DROPS TO 21 OR LESS AT DULLES IT WOULD BE
THE COLDEST SO LATE IN THE SEASON SINCE 1987...AND IF THE LOW
DROPS TO 24 OR LESS AT BWI IT WOULD BE THE COLDEST SO LATE IN THE
SEASON SINCE 1985.

SITE...3/29 RECORD MIN T...
DCA......18 (1923).........
BWI......18 (1923).........
IAD......20 (1982).........

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NWR PIKESVILLE HAS RETURNED TO SERVICE AFTER TOWER WORK TODAY.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ530>532-
     537>540-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ533-534-541-
     543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...HTS/GMS/KLW
MARINE...HTS/GMS/KLW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS
CLIMATE...DFH/JE/HTS
EQUIPMENT...HTS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 281841
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
241 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AND WILL CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY. A
COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ON SUNDAY WILL MOVE EAST
AND CROSS THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM EDT SATURDAY...

1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BUILD SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. PATCHY LOW STRATO CU WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET.

UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...WINDS WILL DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT AND WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS...THE DRY AIR MASS WILL
RESULT IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. RECORD
LOWS TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING IN
LYNCHBURG...BLACKSBURG...DANVILLE...LEWISBURG AND BLUEFIELD.
(CLIMATE SECTION LISTED FOR REFERENCE AND ALSO NOTE THAT THE FROST
AND FREEZE PROGRAM HAS NOT BEGUN FOR OUR FORECAST AREA.)

AS THE HIGH CENTER SHIFT SOUTHEAST...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DESPITE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL LIMIT HEATING. PLAYED HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO COOLER ADJMET VALUES FROM THE THE LOWER 40S
IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT SATURDAY...

CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE SUNDAY EVENING...WITH RAIN SHOWERS...AND
POSSIBLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER RIDGES...ENTERING SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA AFTER SUNSET. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL THEN PASS FROM THE
MOUNTAINS EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...MOST LIKELY IN A BROKEN LINE OF
BRIEF SHOWER ACTIVITY. BEHIND THIS LINE...WINDS WILL SHIFT WESTERLY
AND DOWNSLOPE...CAUSING RAINFALL TO DIMINISH EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...LEAVING ONLY RESIDUAL UPSLOPE SHOWERS ALONG THE WESTERN
RIDGES. WITH VERY LITTLE TIME FOR MOISTURE TO BUILD AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BELIEVE WE WILL SEE MAINLY LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY WHERE SNOW DOES OCCUR.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS PACIFIC IN
ORIGIN...MEANING NOT AS CHILLY AS THE CANADIAN AIRMASSES THAT HAVE
BROUGHT SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AS SUCH...THE
WARMING AFFECT OF DOWNSLOPE WIND FLOW COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AS CLOUDS CLEAR BY AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE MONDAY AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S WEST TO THE MID 60S EAST. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WILL ENSURE GUSTY
CONDITIONS...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE 40 MPH GUSTS ACROSS
THE HIGHER RIDGES DURING THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL MONDAY NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING GENERALLY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE TO
OUR SOUTH ON TUESDAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL CAUSE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW 60S
WEST/UPPER 60S EAST. THE CLIPPER COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT FRIDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON BOTH LEAD SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY HEADING
EAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER IN THE WEEK IN ADVANCE OF
MORE PRONOUNCED DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM 5H TROFFINESS BY THURSDAY.
ALTHOUGH PHASING LOOKS RATHER UNLIKELY...APPEARS DEEPENING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF WILL BE IN PLACE ALLOWING AN INITIAL SHOT OF
SHOWERS TO GET LIFTED NORTH OUT OF THE DAMPENING SOUTHERN WAVE. THIS
ALONG A SURFACE WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN TROUGH/COLD FRONT THAT
SHOULD ENHANCE LIFT ESPCLY WESTERN HALF LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY EVENING. THUS RUNNING WITH MAINLY LOW POPS MOUNTAINS WED NIGHT
AND HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELYS THURSDAY GIVEN THE OVERRUNNING NATURE TO THE
WARM ADVECTION PRECIP. WEAK COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY FRIDAY BUT
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR THROUGH THE REGION THE BOUNDARY MAKES IT IF AT
ALL GIVEN DIFFERING GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS OF MORE ENERGY SPILLING INTO THE
UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST. FOR NOW WILL RUN WITH CHANCE POPS ON FRIDAY
WHICH SUPPORTS THE PREVIOUS SLOWER EC SOLUTION.

TEMPS TO REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY MID OR LATE WEEK GIVEN
FLATTER FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION BY WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY WHEN SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD 60S/70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
WINDS COULD GUST FROM THE NORTHWEST UP TO 30 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THESE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
AREA TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOME MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH AN ALBERTA CLIPPER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 455 AM EDT FRIDAY...

RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 29:

ROANOKE......19 IN 1982
BLACKSBURG...17 IN 2001
LYNCHBURG....23 IN 1923 AND 1982
DANVILLE.....23 IN 1966
BLUEFIELD....19 IN 1966 AND 1982
LEWISBURG....18 IN 1983

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...AMS/KK
CLIMATE...AMS/SK




000
FXUS61 KRNK 281841
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
241 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AND WILL CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY. A
COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ON SUNDAY WILL MOVE EAST
AND CROSS THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM EDT SATURDAY...

1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BUILD SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. PATCHY LOW STRATO CU WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET.

UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...WINDS WILL DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT AND WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS...THE DRY AIR MASS WILL
RESULT IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. RECORD
LOWS TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING IN
LYNCHBURG...BLACKSBURG...DANVILLE...LEWISBURG AND BLUEFIELD.
(CLIMATE SECTION LISTED FOR REFERENCE AND ALSO NOTE THAT THE FROST
AND FREEZE PROGRAM HAS NOT BEGUN FOR OUR FORECAST AREA.)

AS THE HIGH CENTER SHIFT SOUTHEAST...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DESPITE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL LIMIT HEATING. PLAYED HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO COOLER ADJMET VALUES FROM THE THE LOWER 40S
IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT SATURDAY...

CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE SUNDAY EVENING...WITH RAIN SHOWERS...AND
POSSIBLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER RIDGES...ENTERING SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA AFTER SUNSET. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL THEN PASS FROM THE
MOUNTAINS EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...MOST LIKELY IN A BROKEN LINE OF
BRIEF SHOWER ACTIVITY. BEHIND THIS LINE...WINDS WILL SHIFT WESTERLY
AND DOWNSLOPE...CAUSING RAINFALL TO DIMINISH EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...LEAVING ONLY RESIDUAL UPSLOPE SHOWERS ALONG THE WESTERN
RIDGES. WITH VERY LITTLE TIME FOR MOISTURE TO BUILD AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BELIEVE WE WILL SEE MAINLY LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY WHERE SNOW DOES OCCUR.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS PACIFIC IN
ORIGIN...MEANING NOT AS CHILLY AS THE CANADIAN AIRMASSES THAT HAVE
BROUGHT SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AS SUCH...THE
WARMING AFFECT OF DOWNSLOPE WIND FLOW COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AS CLOUDS CLEAR BY AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE MONDAY AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S WEST TO THE MID 60S EAST. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WILL ENSURE GUSTY
CONDITIONS...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE 40 MPH GUSTS ACROSS
THE HIGHER RIDGES DURING THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL MONDAY NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING GENERALLY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE TO
OUR SOUTH ON TUESDAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL CAUSE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW 60S
WEST/UPPER 60S EAST. THE CLIPPER COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT FRIDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON BOTH LEAD SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY HEADING
EAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER IN THE WEEK IN ADVANCE OF
MORE PRONOUNCED DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM 5H TROFFINESS BY THURSDAY.
ALTHOUGH PHASING LOOKS RATHER UNLIKELY...APPEARS DEEPENING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF WILL BE IN PLACE ALLOWING AN INITIAL SHOT OF
SHOWERS TO GET LIFTED NORTH OUT OF THE DAMPENING SOUTHERN WAVE. THIS
ALONG A SURFACE WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN TROUGH/COLD FRONT THAT
SHOULD ENHANCE LIFT ESPCLY WESTERN HALF LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY EVENING. THUS RUNNING WITH MAINLY LOW POPS MOUNTAINS WED NIGHT
AND HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELYS THURSDAY GIVEN THE OVERRUNNING NATURE TO THE
WARM ADVECTION PRECIP. WEAK COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY FRIDAY BUT
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR THROUGH THE REGION THE BOUNDARY MAKES IT IF AT
ALL GIVEN DIFFERING GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS OF MORE ENERGY SPILLING INTO THE
UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST. FOR NOW WILL RUN WITH CHANCE POPS ON FRIDAY
WHICH SUPPORTS THE PREVIOUS SLOWER EC SOLUTION.

TEMPS TO REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY MID OR LATE WEEK GIVEN
FLATTER FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION BY WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY WHEN SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD 60S/70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
WINDS COULD GUST FROM THE NORTHWEST UP TO 30 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THESE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
AREA TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOME MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH AN ALBERTA CLIPPER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 455 AM EDT FRIDAY...

RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 29:

ROANOKE......19 IN 1982
BLACKSBURG...17 IN 2001
LYNCHBURG....23 IN 1923 AND 1982
DANVILLE.....23 IN 1966
BLUEFIELD....19 IN 1966 AND 1982
LEWISBURG....18 IN 1983

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...AMS/KK
CLIMATE...AMS/SK



000
FXUS61 KRNK 281841
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
241 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AND WILL CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY. A
COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ON SUNDAY WILL MOVE EAST
AND CROSS THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM EDT SATURDAY...

1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BUILD SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. PATCHY LOW STRATO CU WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET.

UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...WINDS WILL DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT AND WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS...THE DRY AIR MASS WILL
RESULT IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. RECORD
LOWS TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING IN
LYNCHBURG...BLACKSBURG...DANVILLE...LEWISBURG AND BLUEFIELD.
(CLIMATE SECTION LISTED FOR REFERENCE AND ALSO NOTE THAT THE FROST
AND FREEZE PROGRAM HAS NOT BEGUN FOR OUR FORECAST AREA.)

AS THE HIGH CENTER SHIFT SOUTHEAST...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DESPITE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL LIMIT HEATING. PLAYED HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO COOLER ADJMET VALUES FROM THE THE LOWER 40S
IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT SATURDAY...

CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE SUNDAY EVENING...WITH RAIN SHOWERS...AND
POSSIBLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER RIDGES...ENTERING SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA AFTER SUNSET. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL THEN PASS FROM THE
MOUNTAINS EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...MOST LIKELY IN A BROKEN LINE OF
BRIEF SHOWER ACTIVITY. BEHIND THIS LINE...WINDS WILL SHIFT WESTERLY
AND DOWNSLOPE...CAUSING RAINFALL TO DIMINISH EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...LEAVING ONLY RESIDUAL UPSLOPE SHOWERS ALONG THE WESTERN
RIDGES. WITH VERY LITTLE TIME FOR MOISTURE TO BUILD AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BELIEVE WE WILL SEE MAINLY LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY WHERE SNOW DOES OCCUR.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS PACIFIC IN
ORIGIN...MEANING NOT AS CHILLY AS THE CANADIAN AIRMASSES THAT HAVE
BROUGHT SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AS SUCH...THE
WARMING AFFECT OF DOWNSLOPE WIND FLOW COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AS CLOUDS CLEAR BY AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE MONDAY AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S WEST TO THE MID 60S EAST. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WILL ENSURE GUSTY
CONDITIONS...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE 40 MPH GUSTS ACROSS
THE HIGHER RIDGES DURING THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL MONDAY NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING GENERALLY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE TO
OUR SOUTH ON TUESDAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL CAUSE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW 60S
WEST/UPPER 60S EAST. THE CLIPPER COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT FRIDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON BOTH LEAD SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY HEADING
EAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER IN THE WEEK IN ADVANCE OF
MORE PRONOUNCED DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM 5H TROFFINESS BY THURSDAY.
ALTHOUGH PHASING LOOKS RATHER UNLIKELY...APPEARS DEEPENING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF WILL BE IN PLACE ALLOWING AN INITIAL SHOT OF
SHOWERS TO GET LIFTED NORTH OUT OF THE DAMPENING SOUTHERN WAVE. THIS
ALONG A SURFACE WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN TROUGH/COLD FRONT THAT
SHOULD ENHANCE LIFT ESPCLY WESTERN HALF LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY EVENING. THUS RUNNING WITH MAINLY LOW POPS MOUNTAINS WED NIGHT
AND HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELYS THURSDAY GIVEN THE OVERRUNNING NATURE TO THE
WARM ADVECTION PRECIP. WEAK COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY FRIDAY BUT
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR THROUGH THE REGION THE BOUNDARY MAKES IT IF AT
ALL GIVEN DIFFERING GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS OF MORE ENERGY SPILLING INTO THE
UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST. FOR NOW WILL RUN WITH CHANCE POPS ON FRIDAY
WHICH SUPPORTS THE PREVIOUS SLOWER EC SOLUTION.

TEMPS TO REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY MID OR LATE WEEK GIVEN
FLATTER FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION BY WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY WHEN SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD 60S/70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
WINDS COULD GUST FROM THE NORTHWEST UP TO 30 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THESE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
AREA TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOME MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH AN ALBERTA CLIPPER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 455 AM EDT FRIDAY...

RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 29:

ROANOKE......19 IN 1982
BLACKSBURG...17 IN 2001
LYNCHBURG....23 IN 1923 AND 1982
DANVILLE.....23 IN 1966
BLUEFIELD....19 IN 1966 AND 1982
LEWISBURG....18 IN 1983

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...AMS/KK
CLIMATE...AMS/SK



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281800
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
200 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND SETTLES OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AFTER PICKING UP AROUND ONE INCH OF SNOW ON GRASSY SURFACES AROUND
BLACKSTONE AND CREWE THIS MORNING...RECENT RADAR TRENDS ARE
SHOWING A DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES
ARE ALSO STARTING TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING IN AREAS WHERE SNOW FELL
EARLIER. SOME OBSERVATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST NC ARE REPORTING
LIGHT RAIN SO WILL ADD JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN
THROUGH 18Z THERE. OVERALL THE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON IN AREAS
WHERE SKIES WERE SUNNY THIS MORNING (ESPECIALLY N) AS LOW- LEVEL
INSTABILITY COMBINES WITH A SECONDARY VORT MAX TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD CU/SC. ISOLATED -SHRA...AND POSSIBLY A MIX OF
-SHRA/SHSN COULD PASS NEAR OCEAN CITY...BUT IT APPEARS MOST
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH ACROSS DELAWARE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...NEARLY -2 ST DEV...AND
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 40S N...TO MID/UPPER 40S S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANY LINGERING -SHRA/SHSN SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. THE SKY
SHOULD CLEAR FROM SW-NE...WITH MOST OF THE AREA BECOMING CLEAR
ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL BAND OF SC OFF THE BAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 20S...WITH UPPER 20S ALONG THE COASTS
OF SE VA/NE NC. CURRENT FORECAST LOWS ARE NOT RECORDS...BUT COULD
BE CLOSE DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH DECOUPLING OCCURS. RECORD VALUES
ARE LISTED BELOW IN THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR REFERENCE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY...SUNNY...AND COOL CONDITIONS WITH A LIGHT NW
WIND BECOMING SW BY AFTERNOON. LIMITED MIXING WILL ONLY ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE
LOW/MID 50S OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSS THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY...SO
THERE IS ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY FOR -SHRA (~20% OVER WRN
PORTIONS). THE BOUNDARY DROPS S OF THE REGION EARLY MONDAY WITH
DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW DEVELOPING MONDAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
EARLY SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY BY
AFTERNOON. IMPROVED MIXING AND MORE SUN WILL RESULT IN HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 60S E...TO MID/UPPER 60S W. THIS WILL BE
AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN PREVAILS THRU THE EXTENDED...AS NRN STREAM
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACTIVE. THE FIRST NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE EXITS THE
COAST LATE MON NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE REACHING THE OH VALLEY
LATE TUES. ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND TUES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TRACK
OF THE NRN STREAM LOW...WITH THE 27/12Z GFS LIFTING IT THRU NE...THE
27/12Z ECMWF THRU THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND THE 27/12Z CMC
THRU NC. BASED ON THE OVERALL PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW...PREFER THE NRN TRACK...KEEPING THE FA DRY. ASSOCIATED WEAK
COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION TUES NIGHT-WEDS. LIMITED
MOISTURE AND LITTLE APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL RESULT IN A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE. UPPER/SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ERN CONUS WEDS.
THEREAFTER...MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE HANDLING OF A SRN STREAM SYSTEM
LIFTING FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE GULF STATES WEDS-WEDS NIGHT.
GFS QUICKER TO RETURN MOISTURE TO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATES OFF THE SE COAST WEDS-WEDS NIGHT...WHILE ITS ECMWF AND CMC
COUNTERPARTS ARE SLOWER WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN. THEREAFTER...THE
NEXT NRN STREAM SYSTEM PROGGED TO REACH THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY
LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT SPATIAL AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST...WITH THE GFS PUSHING THE FRONT THRU 18
HRS BEFORE THE ECMWF (FRI VS. SAT MORNING). WILL MAINTAIN LOW END
CHANCE POPS BEGINNING THURS. WILL CARRY LOW END CHANCE POPS THROUGH
FRI...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM.

TEMPS TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED WILL BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONABLE
NORMS...IN THE 60S INLAND AND UPPER 50S-LOW 60S ERN SHORE AND
COASTAL AREAS. THURS HIGHS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON POTENTIAL CLOUD
COVER/PRECIP. HAVE OPTED FOR A BLEND...RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 INLAND AND LOW-MID 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL
AREAS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY.

SCT-BKN SC/CU DUE TO COLD AIR AT AROUND 6K FT. THIS CLOUD LAYER
SHOULD CLEAR NEAR SUNSET AS SURFACE HEATING ENDS. GUSTY NW WINDS
WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE WINDS
ONCE AGAIN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR IS FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. THERE WILL BE SLGT TO LOW
CHC FOR SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNS THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS DEVELOPING LO PRES OFF THE VA/NC CST
WITH HI PRES OVER THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES STATES. WINDS ARE STARTING
TO PICK UP THIS MORNG OVER THE LOCAL WTRS IN ASSOCIATION WITH CAA
BEHIND THE OFFSHORE LO. FOR TDA INTO TNGT...EXPECT WINDS INCREASING
TO 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT OVER THE BAY/OCEAN...AND 15-25
KNOTS OVER THE RIVERS AND SOUND. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
OVER MOST WTRS THRU SUN MORN/MIDDAY UNTIL HI PRESS FINALLY BLDS OVER
THE WATERS. WAVES GENERALLY 3-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. NW WINDS SUBSIDE
TO 10-15 KT SUN AFTERNOON WITH SEAS DROPPING BELOW 5 FT. HIGH
PRESSURE QUICKLY PASSES OVER THE REGION SUN...AND THEN MOVES
OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT. FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SSW. THE NEXT (WEAK) COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W LATE SUN. SW FLOW INCREASES LATE SUN
NIGHT...WITH MODELS INDICATING SCA CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BASED ON
WAA AND COLD WATER...CONFIDENCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS IS NOT HI
ATTM...AND WILL AVOID ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW ALSO WITH THE CURRENT
HEADLINES OUT. VERY LITTLE CAA IN WAKE OF THE FRONT LATE SUN NIGHT-
MON MORNING SO SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THEN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY 3/29:

RIC...22/1923
ORF...25/1982
SBY...18/1923
ECG...24/1982

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJZ/JAO
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281800
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
200 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND SETTLES OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AFTER PICKING UP AROUND ONE INCH OF SNOW ON GRASSY SURFACES AROUND
BLACKSTONE AND CREWE THIS MORNING...RECENT RADAR TRENDS ARE
SHOWING A DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES
ARE ALSO STARTING TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING IN AREAS WHERE SNOW FELL
EARLIER. SOME OBSERVATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST NC ARE REPORTING
LIGHT RAIN SO WILL ADD JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN
THROUGH 18Z THERE. OVERALL THE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON IN AREAS
WHERE SKIES WERE SUNNY THIS MORNING (ESPECIALLY N) AS LOW- LEVEL
INSTABILITY COMBINES WITH A SECONDARY VORT MAX TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD CU/SC. ISOLATED -SHRA...AND POSSIBLY A MIX OF
-SHRA/SHSN COULD PASS NEAR OCEAN CITY...BUT IT APPEARS MOST
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH ACROSS DELAWARE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...NEARLY -2 ST DEV...AND
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 40S N...TO MID/UPPER 40S S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANY LINGERING -SHRA/SHSN SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. THE SKY
SHOULD CLEAR FROM SW-NE...WITH MOST OF THE AREA BECOMING CLEAR
ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL BAND OF SC OFF THE BAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 20S...WITH UPPER 20S ALONG THE COASTS
OF SE VA/NE NC. CURRENT FORECAST LOWS ARE NOT RECORDS...BUT COULD
BE CLOSE DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH DECOUPLING OCCURS. RECORD VALUES
ARE LISTED BELOW IN THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR REFERENCE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY...SUNNY...AND COOL CONDITIONS WITH A LIGHT NW
WIND BECOMING SW BY AFTERNOON. LIMITED MIXING WILL ONLY ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE
LOW/MID 50S OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSS THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY...SO
THERE IS ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY FOR -SHRA (~20% OVER WRN
PORTIONS). THE BOUNDARY DROPS S OF THE REGION EARLY MONDAY WITH
DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW DEVELOPING MONDAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
EARLY SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY BY
AFTERNOON. IMPROVED MIXING AND MORE SUN WILL RESULT IN HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 60S E...TO MID/UPPER 60S W. THIS WILL BE
AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN PREVAILS THRU THE EXTENDED...AS NRN STREAM
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACTIVE. THE FIRST NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE EXITS THE
COAST LATE MON NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE REACHING THE OH VALLEY
LATE TUES. ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND TUES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TRACK
OF THE NRN STREAM LOW...WITH THE 27/12Z GFS LIFTING IT THRU NE...THE
27/12Z ECMWF THRU THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND THE 27/12Z CMC
THRU NC. BASED ON THE OVERALL PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW...PREFER THE NRN TRACK...KEEPING THE FA DRY. ASSOCIATED WEAK
COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION TUES NIGHT-WEDS. LIMITED
MOISTURE AND LITTLE APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL RESULT IN A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE. UPPER/SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ERN CONUS WEDS.
THEREAFTER...MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE HANDLING OF A SRN STREAM SYSTEM
LIFTING FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE GULF STATES WEDS-WEDS NIGHT.
GFS QUICKER TO RETURN MOISTURE TO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATES OFF THE SE COAST WEDS-WEDS NIGHT...WHILE ITS ECMWF AND CMC
COUNTERPARTS ARE SLOWER WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN. THEREAFTER...THE
NEXT NRN STREAM SYSTEM PROGGED TO REACH THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY
LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT SPATIAL AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST...WITH THE GFS PUSHING THE FRONT THRU 18
HRS BEFORE THE ECMWF (FRI VS. SAT MORNING). WILL MAINTAIN LOW END
CHANCE POPS BEGINNING THURS. WILL CARRY LOW END CHANCE POPS THROUGH
FRI...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM.

TEMPS TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED WILL BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONABLE
NORMS...IN THE 60S INLAND AND UPPER 50S-LOW 60S ERN SHORE AND
COASTAL AREAS. THURS HIGHS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON POTENTIAL CLOUD
COVER/PRECIP. HAVE OPTED FOR A BLEND...RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 INLAND AND LOW-MID 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL
AREAS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY.

SCT-BKN SC/CU DUE TO COLD AIR AT AROUND 6K FT. THIS CLOUD LAYER
SHOULD CLEAR NEAR SUNSET AS SURFACE HEATING ENDS. GUSTY NW WINDS
WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE WINDS
ONCE AGAIN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR IS FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. THERE WILL BE SLGT TO LOW
CHC FOR SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNS THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS DEVELOPING LO PRES OFF THE VA/NC CST
WITH HI PRES OVER THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES STATES. WINDS ARE STARTING
TO PICK UP THIS MORNG OVER THE LOCAL WTRS IN ASSOCIATION WITH CAA
BEHIND THE OFFSHORE LO. FOR TDA INTO TNGT...EXPECT WINDS INCREASING
TO 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT OVER THE BAY/OCEAN...AND 15-25
KNOTS OVER THE RIVERS AND SOUND. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
OVER MOST WTRS THRU SUN MORN/MIDDAY UNTIL HI PRESS FINALLY BLDS OVER
THE WATERS. WAVES GENERALLY 3-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. NW WINDS SUBSIDE
TO 10-15 KT SUN AFTERNOON WITH SEAS DROPPING BELOW 5 FT. HIGH
PRESSURE QUICKLY PASSES OVER THE REGION SUN...AND THEN MOVES
OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT. FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SSW. THE NEXT (WEAK) COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W LATE SUN. SW FLOW INCREASES LATE SUN
NIGHT...WITH MODELS INDICATING SCA CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BASED ON
WAA AND COLD WATER...CONFIDENCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS IS NOT HI
ATTM...AND WILL AVOID ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW ALSO WITH THE CURRENT
HEADLINES OUT. VERY LITTLE CAA IN WAKE OF THE FRONT LATE SUN NIGHT-
MON MORNING SO SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THEN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY 3/29:

RIC...22/1923
ORF...25/1982
SBY...18/1923
ECG...24/1982

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJZ/JAO
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281800
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
200 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND SETTLES OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AFTER PICKING UP AROUND ONE INCH OF SNOW ON GRASSY SURFACES AROUND
BLACKSTONE AND CREWE THIS MORNING...RECENT RADAR TRENDS ARE
SHOWING A DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES
ARE ALSO STARTING TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING IN AREAS WHERE SNOW FELL
EARLIER. SOME OBSERVATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST NC ARE REPORTING
LIGHT RAIN SO WILL ADD JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN
THROUGH 18Z THERE. OVERALL THE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON IN AREAS
WHERE SKIES WERE SUNNY THIS MORNING (ESPECIALLY N) AS LOW- LEVEL
INSTABILITY COMBINES WITH A SECONDARY VORT MAX TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD CU/SC. ISOLATED -SHRA...AND POSSIBLY A MIX OF
-SHRA/SHSN COULD PASS NEAR OCEAN CITY...BUT IT APPEARS MOST
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH ACROSS DELAWARE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...NEARLY -2 ST DEV...AND
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 40S N...TO MID/UPPER 40S S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANY LINGERING -SHRA/SHSN SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. THE SKY
SHOULD CLEAR FROM SW-NE...WITH MOST OF THE AREA BECOMING CLEAR
ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL BAND OF SC OFF THE BAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 20S...WITH UPPER 20S ALONG THE COASTS
OF SE VA/NE NC. CURRENT FORECAST LOWS ARE NOT RECORDS...BUT COULD
BE CLOSE DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH DECOUPLING OCCURS. RECORD VALUES
ARE LISTED BELOW IN THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR REFERENCE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY...SUNNY...AND COOL CONDITIONS WITH A LIGHT NW
WIND BECOMING SW BY AFTERNOON. LIMITED MIXING WILL ONLY ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE
LOW/MID 50S OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSS THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY...SO
THERE IS ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY FOR -SHRA (~20% OVER WRN
PORTIONS). THE BOUNDARY DROPS S OF THE REGION EARLY MONDAY WITH
DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW DEVELOPING MONDAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
EARLY SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY BY
AFTERNOON. IMPROVED MIXING AND MORE SUN WILL RESULT IN HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 60S E...TO MID/UPPER 60S W. THIS WILL BE
AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN PREVAILS THRU THE EXTENDED...AS NRN STREAM
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACTIVE. THE FIRST NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE EXITS THE
COAST LATE MON NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE REACHING THE OH VALLEY
LATE TUES. ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND TUES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TRACK
OF THE NRN STREAM LOW...WITH THE 27/12Z GFS LIFTING IT THRU NE...THE
27/12Z ECMWF THRU THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND THE 27/12Z CMC
THRU NC. BASED ON THE OVERALL PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW...PREFER THE NRN TRACK...KEEPING THE FA DRY. ASSOCIATED WEAK
COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION TUES NIGHT-WEDS. LIMITED
MOISTURE AND LITTLE APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL RESULT IN A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE. UPPER/SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ERN CONUS WEDS.
THEREAFTER...MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE HANDLING OF A SRN STREAM SYSTEM
LIFTING FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE GULF STATES WEDS-WEDS NIGHT.
GFS QUICKER TO RETURN MOISTURE TO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATES OFF THE SE COAST WEDS-WEDS NIGHT...WHILE ITS ECMWF AND CMC
COUNTERPARTS ARE SLOWER WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN. THEREAFTER...THE
NEXT NRN STREAM SYSTEM PROGGED TO REACH THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY
LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT SPATIAL AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST...WITH THE GFS PUSHING THE FRONT THRU 18
HRS BEFORE THE ECMWF (FRI VS. SAT MORNING). WILL MAINTAIN LOW END
CHANCE POPS BEGINNING THURS. WILL CARRY LOW END CHANCE POPS THROUGH
FRI...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM.

TEMPS TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED WILL BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONABLE
NORMS...IN THE 60S INLAND AND UPPER 50S-LOW 60S ERN SHORE AND
COASTAL AREAS. THURS HIGHS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON POTENTIAL CLOUD
COVER/PRECIP. HAVE OPTED FOR A BLEND...RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 INLAND AND LOW-MID 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL
AREAS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY.

SCT-BKN SC/CU DUE TO COLD AIR AT AROUND 6K FT. THIS CLOUD LAYER
SHOULD CLEAR NEAR SUNSET AS SURFACE HEATING ENDS. GUSTY NW WINDS
WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE WINDS
ONCE AGAIN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR IS FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. THERE WILL BE SLGT TO LOW
CHC FOR SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNS THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS DEVELOPING LO PRES OFF THE VA/NC CST
WITH HI PRES OVER THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES STATES. WINDS ARE STARTING
TO PICK UP THIS MORNG OVER THE LOCAL WTRS IN ASSOCIATION WITH CAA
BEHIND THE OFFSHORE LO. FOR TDA INTO TNGT...EXPECT WINDS INCREASING
TO 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT OVER THE BAY/OCEAN...AND 15-25
KNOTS OVER THE RIVERS AND SOUND. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
OVER MOST WTRS THRU SUN MORN/MIDDAY UNTIL HI PRESS FINALLY BLDS OVER
THE WATERS. WAVES GENERALLY 3-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. NW WINDS SUBSIDE
TO 10-15 KT SUN AFTERNOON WITH SEAS DROPPING BELOW 5 FT. HIGH
PRESSURE QUICKLY PASSES OVER THE REGION SUN...AND THEN MOVES
OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT. FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SSW. THE NEXT (WEAK) COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W LATE SUN. SW FLOW INCREASES LATE SUN
NIGHT...WITH MODELS INDICATING SCA CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BASED ON
WAA AND COLD WATER...CONFIDENCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS IS NOT HI
ATTM...AND WILL AVOID ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW ALSO WITH THE CURRENT
HEADLINES OUT. VERY LITTLE CAA IN WAKE OF THE FRONT LATE SUN NIGHT-
MON MORNING SO SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THEN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY 3/29:

RIC...22/1923
ORF...25/1982
SBY...18/1923
ECG...24/1982

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJZ/JAO
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KRNK 281731
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
131 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND
WILL CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT OVER
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ON SUNDAY WILL MOVE EAST AND CROSS THROUGH
THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 947 AM EDT SATURDAY...
MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO ISC GRIDS FOR POPS...WEATHER AND
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MORNING
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE
UPPER TROF HAS MOVED INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. LOW-LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. MORE CHANGES LATER...

AS OF 410 AM EDT SATURDAY...

AREA RADARS WERE DETECTING TWO AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION THIS
MORNING. ONE MAINLY EAST OF LYNCHBURG AND DANVILLE AND THE SECOND IN
THE WESTERN UPSLOPE AREAS...SPILLING INTO THE FOOTHILLS OF VIRGINIA
AND NORTH CAROLINA.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED A SHORT WAVE CROSSING INTO EASTERN
VIRGINIA. THE FEATURE WAS WITHIN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE UPPER
TROF AND BOTH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE PRECIPITATION ENDING IN THE EASTERN COUNTY
WARNING AREA BY 14Z/10AM. THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE HAD ENHANCED
UPSLOPE WINDS IN THE WEST. 850 MB WINDS WILL PEAK AROUND 30 TO 45
THIS MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN THROUGH
THE LIFT IS ADEQUATE...THE MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH BY NOON...ENDING
THE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES IN THE WEST.

AFTER SUNSET...EXPECT ANY REMAINING CLOUD COVER TO DISSIPATE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY
MORNING. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT AND WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS...THE DRY AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN LARGE
SPREAD BETWEEN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY AND LOWS TONIGHT.
RECORD LOWS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING IN
LYNCHBURG...BLACKSBURG...DANVILLE ...LEWISBURG AND BLUEFIELD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT SATURDAY...

WILL START SUNDAY MORNING OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...
RESULTING IN A CHILLY BEGINNING TO THE DAY. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDFLOW TO TAKE OVER BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DESPITE ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST WILL LIMIT HEATING...WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S WEST TO THE LOW 50S EAST.

CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE SUNDAY EVENING...WITH RAIN SHOWERS...AND
POSSIBLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER RIDGES...ENTERING SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA AFTER SUNSET. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL THEN PASS FROM THE
MOUNTAINS EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...MOST LIKELY IN A BROKEN LINE OF
BRIEF SHOWER ACTIVITY. BEHIND THIS LINE...WINDS WILL SHIFT WESTERLY
AND DOWNSLOPE...CAUSING RAINFALL TO DIMINISH EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...LEAVING ONLY RESIDUAL UPSLOPE SHOWERS ALONG THE WESTERN
RIDGES. WITH VERY LITTLE TIME FOR MOISTURE TO BUILD AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BELIEVE WE WILL SEE MAINLY LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY WHERE SNOW DOES OCCUR.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS PACIFIC IN
ORIGIN...MEANING NOT AS CHILLY AS THE CANADIAN AIRMASSES THAT HAVE
BROUGHT SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AS SUCH...THE
WARMING AFFECT OF DOWNSLOPE WIND FLOW COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AS CLOUDS CLEAR BY AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE MONDAY AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S WEST TO THE MID 60S EAST. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WILL ENSURE GUSTY
CONDITIONS...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE 40 MPH GUSTS ACROSS
THE HIGHER RIDGES DURING THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL MONDAY NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING GENERALLY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE TO
OUR SOUTH ON TUESDAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL CAUSE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW 60S
WEST/UPPER 60S EAST. THE CLIPPER COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT FRIDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON BOTH LEAD SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY HEADING
EAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER IN THE WEEK IN ADVANCE OF
MORE PRONOUNCED DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM 5H TROFFINESS BY THURSDAY.
ALTHOUGH PHASING LOOKS RATHER UNLIKELY...APPEARS DEEPENING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF WILL BE IN PLACE ALLOWING AN INITIAL SHOT OF
SHOWERS TO GET LIFTED NORTH OUT OF THE DAMPENING SOUTHERN WAVE. THIS
ALONG A SURFACE WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN TROUGH/COLD FRONT THAT
SHOULD ENHANCE LIFT ESPCLY WESTERN HALF LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY EVENING. THUS RUNNING WITH MAINLY LOW POPS MOUNTAINS WED NIGHT
AND HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELYS THURSDAY GIVEN THE OVERRUNNING NATURE TO THE
WARM ADVECTION PRECIP. WEAK COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY FRIDAY BUT
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR THROUGH THE REGION THE BOUNDARY MAKES IT IF AT
ALL GIVEN DIFFERING GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS OF MORE ENERGY SPILLING INTO THE
UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST. FOR NOW WILL RUN WITH CHANCE POPS ON FRIDAY
WHICH SUPPORTS THE PREVIOUS SLOWER EC SOLUTION.

TEMPS TO REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY MID OR LATE WEEK GIVEN
FLATTER FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION BY WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY WHEN SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD 60S/70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
WINDS COULD GUST FROM THE NORTHWEST UP TO 30 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THESE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
AREA TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOME MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH AN ALBERTA CLIPPER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 455 AM EDT FRIDAY...

RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 29:

ROANOKE......19 IN 1982
BLACKSBURG...17 IN 2001
LYNCHBURG....23 IN 1923 AND 1982
DANVILLE.....23 IN 1966
BLUEFIELD....19 IN 1966 AND 1982
LEWISBURG....18 IN 1983

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...AMS/KK
CLIMATE...AMS/SK




000
FXUS61 KRNK 281731
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
131 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND
WILL CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT OVER
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ON SUNDAY WILL MOVE EAST AND CROSS THROUGH
THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 947 AM EDT SATURDAY...
MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO ISC GRIDS FOR POPS...WEATHER AND
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MORNING
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE
UPPER TROF HAS MOVED INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. LOW-LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. MORE CHANGES LATER...

AS OF 410 AM EDT SATURDAY...

AREA RADARS WERE DETECTING TWO AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION THIS
MORNING. ONE MAINLY EAST OF LYNCHBURG AND DANVILLE AND THE SECOND IN
THE WESTERN UPSLOPE AREAS...SPILLING INTO THE FOOTHILLS OF VIRGINIA
AND NORTH CAROLINA.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED A SHORT WAVE CROSSING INTO EASTERN
VIRGINIA. THE FEATURE WAS WITHIN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE UPPER
TROF AND BOTH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE PRECIPITATION ENDING IN THE EASTERN COUNTY
WARNING AREA BY 14Z/10AM. THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE HAD ENHANCED
UPSLOPE WINDS IN THE WEST. 850 MB WINDS WILL PEAK AROUND 30 TO 45
THIS MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN THROUGH
THE LIFT IS ADEQUATE...THE MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH BY NOON...ENDING
THE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES IN THE WEST.

AFTER SUNSET...EXPECT ANY REMAINING CLOUD COVER TO DISSIPATE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY
MORNING. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT AND WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS...THE DRY AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN LARGE
SPREAD BETWEEN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY AND LOWS TONIGHT.
RECORD LOWS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING IN
LYNCHBURG...BLACKSBURG...DANVILLE ...LEWISBURG AND BLUEFIELD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT SATURDAY...

WILL START SUNDAY MORNING OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...
RESULTING IN A CHILLY BEGINNING TO THE DAY. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDFLOW TO TAKE OVER BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DESPITE ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST WILL LIMIT HEATING...WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S WEST TO THE LOW 50S EAST.

CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE SUNDAY EVENING...WITH RAIN SHOWERS...AND
POSSIBLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER RIDGES...ENTERING SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA AFTER SUNSET. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL THEN PASS FROM THE
MOUNTAINS EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...MOST LIKELY IN A BROKEN LINE OF
BRIEF SHOWER ACTIVITY. BEHIND THIS LINE...WINDS WILL SHIFT WESTERLY
AND DOWNSLOPE...CAUSING RAINFALL TO DIMINISH EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...LEAVING ONLY RESIDUAL UPSLOPE SHOWERS ALONG THE WESTERN
RIDGES. WITH VERY LITTLE TIME FOR MOISTURE TO BUILD AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BELIEVE WE WILL SEE MAINLY LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY WHERE SNOW DOES OCCUR.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS PACIFIC IN
ORIGIN...MEANING NOT AS CHILLY AS THE CANADIAN AIRMASSES THAT HAVE
BROUGHT SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AS SUCH...THE
WARMING AFFECT OF DOWNSLOPE WIND FLOW COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AS CLOUDS CLEAR BY AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE MONDAY AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S WEST TO THE MID 60S EAST. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WILL ENSURE GUSTY
CONDITIONS...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE 40 MPH GUSTS ACROSS
THE HIGHER RIDGES DURING THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL MONDAY NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING GENERALLY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE TO
OUR SOUTH ON TUESDAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL CAUSE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW 60S
WEST/UPPER 60S EAST. THE CLIPPER COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT FRIDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON BOTH LEAD SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY HEADING
EAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER IN THE WEEK IN ADVANCE OF
MORE PRONOUNCED DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM 5H TROFFINESS BY THURSDAY.
ALTHOUGH PHASING LOOKS RATHER UNLIKELY...APPEARS DEEPENING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF WILL BE IN PLACE ALLOWING AN INITIAL SHOT OF
SHOWERS TO GET LIFTED NORTH OUT OF THE DAMPENING SOUTHERN WAVE. THIS
ALONG A SURFACE WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN TROUGH/COLD FRONT THAT
SHOULD ENHANCE LIFT ESPCLY WESTERN HALF LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY EVENING. THUS RUNNING WITH MAINLY LOW POPS MOUNTAINS WED NIGHT
AND HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELYS THURSDAY GIVEN THE OVERRUNNING NATURE TO THE
WARM ADVECTION PRECIP. WEAK COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY FRIDAY BUT
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR THROUGH THE REGION THE BOUNDARY MAKES IT IF AT
ALL GIVEN DIFFERING GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS OF MORE ENERGY SPILLING INTO THE
UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST. FOR NOW WILL RUN WITH CHANCE POPS ON FRIDAY
WHICH SUPPORTS THE PREVIOUS SLOWER EC SOLUTION.

TEMPS TO REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY MID OR LATE WEEK GIVEN
FLATTER FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION BY WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY WHEN SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD 60S/70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
WINDS COULD GUST FROM THE NORTHWEST UP TO 30 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THESE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
AREA TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOME MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH AN ALBERTA CLIPPER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 455 AM EDT FRIDAY...

RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 29:

ROANOKE......19 IN 1982
BLACKSBURG...17 IN 2001
LYNCHBURG....23 IN 1923 AND 1982
DANVILLE.....23 IN 1966
BLUEFIELD....19 IN 1966 AND 1982
LEWISBURG....18 IN 1983

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...AMS/KK
CLIMATE...AMS/SK



000
FXUS61 KRNK 281731
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
131 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND
WILL CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT OVER
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ON SUNDAY WILL MOVE EAST AND CROSS THROUGH
THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 947 AM EDT SATURDAY...
MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO ISC GRIDS FOR POPS...WEATHER AND
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MORNING
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE
UPPER TROF HAS MOVED INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. LOW-LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. MORE CHANGES LATER...

AS OF 410 AM EDT SATURDAY...

AREA RADARS WERE DETECTING TWO AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION THIS
MORNING. ONE MAINLY EAST OF LYNCHBURG AND DANVILLE AND THE SECOND IN
THE WESTERN UPSLOPE AREAS...SPILLING INTO THE FOOTHILLS OF VIRGINIA
AND NORTH CAROLINA.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED A SHORT WAVE CROSSING INTO EASTERN
VIRGINIA. THE FEATURE WAS WITHIN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE UPPER
TROF AND BOTH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE PRECIPITATION ENDING IN THE EASTERN COUNTY
WARNING AREA BY 14Z/10AM. THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE HAD ENHANCED
UPSLOPE WINDS IN THE WEST. 850 MB WINDS WILL PEAK AROUND 30 TO 45
THIS MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN THROUGH
THE LIFT IS ADEQUATE...THE MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH BY NOON...ENDING
THE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES IN THE WEST.

AFTER SUNSET...EXPECT ANY REMAINING CLOUD COVER TO DISSIPATE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY
MORNING. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT AND WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS...THE DRY AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN LARGE
SPREAD BETWEEN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY AND LOWS TONIGHT.
RECORD LOWS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING IN
LYNCHBURG...BLACKSBURG...DANVILLE ...LEWISBURG AND BLUEFIELD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT SATURDAY...

WILL START SUNDAY MORNING OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...
RESULTING IN A CHILLY BEGINNING TO THE DAY. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDFLOW TO TAKE OVER BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DESPITE ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST WILL LIMIT HEATING...WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S WEST TO THE LOW 50S EAST.

CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE SUNDAY EVENING...WITH RAIN SHOWERS...AND
POSSIBLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER RIDGES...ENTERING SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA AFTER SUNSET. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL THEN PASS FROM THE
MOUNTAINS EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...MOST LIKELY IN A BROKEN LINE OF
BRIEF SHOWER ACTIVITY. BEHIND THIS LINE...WINDS WILL SHIFT WESTERLY
AND DOWNSLOPE...CAUSING RAINFALL TO DIMINISH EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...LEAVING ONLY RESIDUAL UPSLOPE SHOWERS ALONG THE WESTERN
RIDGES. WITH VERY LITTLE TIME FOR MOISTURE TO BUILD AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BELIEVE WE WILL SEE MAINLY LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY WHERE SNOW DOES OCCUR.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS PACIFIC IN
ORIGIN...MEANING NOT AS CHILLY AS THE CANADIAN AIRMASSES THAT HAVE
BROUGHT SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AS SUCH...THE
WARMING AFFECT OF DOWNSLOPE WIND FLOW COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AS CLOUDS CLEAR BY AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE MONDAY AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S WEST TO THE MID 60S EAST. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WILL ENSURE GUSTY
CONDITIONS...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE 40 MPH GUSTS ACROSS
THE HIGHER RIDGES DURING THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL MONDAY NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING GENERALLY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE TO
OUR SOUTH ON TUESDAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL CAUSE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW 60S
WEST/UPPER 60S EAST. THE CLIPPER COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT FRIDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON BOTH LEAD SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY HEADING
EAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER IN THE WEEK IN ADVANCE OF
MORE PRONOUNCED DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM 5H TROFFINESS BY THURSDAY.
ALTHOUGH PHASING LOOKS RATHER UNLIKELY...APPEARS DEEPENING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF WILL BE IN PLACE ALLOWING AN INITIAL SHOT OF
SHOWERS TO GET LIFTED NORTH OUT OF THE DAMPENING SOUTHERN WAVE. THIS
ALONG A SURFACE WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN TROUGH/COLD FRONT THAT
SHOULD ENHANCE LIFT ESPCLY WESTERN HALF LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY EVENING. THUS RUNNING WITH MAINLY LOW POPS MOUNTAINS WED NIGHT
AND HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELYS THURSDAY GIVEN THE OVERRUNNING NATURE TO THE
WARM ADVECTION PRECIP. WEAK COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY FRIDAY BUT
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR THROUGH THE REGION THE BOUNDARY MAKES IT IF AT
ALL GIVEN DIFFERING GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS OF MORE ENERGY SPILLING INTO THE
UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST. FOR NOW WILL RUN WITH CHANCE POPS ON FRIDAY
WHICH SUPPORTS THE PREVIOUS SLOWER EC SOLUTION.

TEMPS TO REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY MID OR LATE WEEK GIVEN
FLATTER FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION BY WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY WHEN SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD 60S/70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
WINDS COULD GUST FROM THE NORTHWEST UP TO 30 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THESE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
AREA TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOME MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH AN ALBERTA CLIPPER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 455 AM EDT FRIDAY...

RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 29:

ROANOKE......19 IN 1982
BLACKSBURG...17 IN 2001
LYNCHBURG....23 IN 1923 AND 1982
DANVILLE.....23 IN 1966
BLUEFIELD....19 IN 1966 AND 1982
LEWISBURG....18 IN 1983

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...AMS/KK
CLIMATE...AMS/SK



000
FXUS61 KRNK 281731
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
131 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND
WILL CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT OVER
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ON SUNDAY WILL MOVE EAST AND CROSS THROUGH
THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 947 AM EDT SATURDAY...
MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO ISC GRIDS FOR POPS...WEATHER AND
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MORNING
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE
UPPER TROF HAS MOVED INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. LOW-LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. MORE CHANGES LATER...

AS OF 410 AM EDT SATURDAY...

AREA RADARS WERE DETECTING TWO AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION THIS
MORNING. ONE MAINLY EAST OF LYNCHBURG AND DANVILLE AND THE SECOND IN
THE WESTERN UPSLOPE AREAS...SPILLING INTO THE FOOTHILLS OF VIRGINIA
AND NORTH CAROLINA.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED A SHORT WAVE CROSSING INTO EASTERN
VIRGINIA. THE FEATURE WAS WITHIN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE UPPER
TROF AND BOTH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE PRECIPITATION ENDING IN THE EASTERN COUNTY
WARNING AREA BY 14Z/10AM. THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE HAD ENHANCED
UPSLOPE WINDS IN THE WEST. 850 MB WINDS WILL PEAK AROUND 30 TO 45
THIS MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN THROUGH
THE LIFT IS ADEQUATE...THE MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH BY NOON...ENDING
THE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES IN THE WEST.

AFTER SUNSET...EXPECT ANY REMAINING CLOUD COVER TO DISSIPATE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY
MORNING. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT AND WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS...THE DRY AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN LARGE
SPREAD BETWEEN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY AND LOWS TONIGHT.
RECORD LOWS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING IN
LYNCHBURG...BLACKSBURG...DANVILLE ...LEWISBURG AND BLUEFIELD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT SATURDAY...

WILL START SUNDAY MORNING OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...
RESULTING IN A CHILLY BEGINNING TO THE DAY. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDFLOW TO TAKE OVER BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DESPITE ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST WILL LIMIT HEATING...WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S WEST TO THE LOW 50S EAST.

CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE SUNDAY EVENING...WITH RAIN SHOWERS...AND
POSSIBLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER RIDGES...ENTERING SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA AFTER SUNSET. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL THEN PASS FROM THE
MOUNTAINS EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...MOST LIKELY IN A BROKEN LINE OF
BRIEF SHOWER ACTIVITY. BEHIND THIS LINE...WINDS WILL SHIFT WESTERLY
AND DOWNSLOPE...CAUSING RAINFALL TO DIMINISH EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...LEAVING ONLY RESIDUAL UPSLOPE SHOWERS ALONG THE WESTERN
RIDGES. WITH VERY LITTLE TIME FOR MOISTURE TO BUILD AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BELIEVE WE WILL SEE MAINLY LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY WHERE SNOW DOES OCCUR.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS PACIFIC IN
ORIGIN...MEANING NOT AS CHILLY AS THE CANADIAN AIRMASSES THAT HAVE
BROUGHT SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AS SUCH...THE
WARMING AFFECT OF DOWNSLOPE WIND FLOW COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AS CLOUDS CLEAR BY AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE MONDAY AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S WEST TO THE MID 60S EAST. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WILL ENSURE GUSTY
CONDITIONS...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE 40 MPH GUSTS ACROSS
THE HIGHER RIDGES DURING THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL MONDAY NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING GENERALLY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE TO
OUR SOUTH ON TUESDAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL CAUSE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW 60S
WEST/UPPER 60S EAST. THE CLIPPER COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT FRIDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON BOTH LEAD SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY HEADING
EAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER IN THE WEEK IN ADVANCE OF
MORE PRONOUNCED DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM 5H TROFFINESS BY THURSDAY.
ALTHOUGH PHASING LOOKS RATHER UNLIKELY...APPEARS DEEPENING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF WILL BE IN PLACE ALLOWING AN INITIAL SHOT OF
SHOWERS TO GET LIFTED NORTH OUT OF THE DAMPENING SOUTHERN WAVE. THIS
ALONG A SURFACE WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN TROUGH/COLD FRONT THAT
SHOULD ENHANCE LIFT ESPCLY WESTERN HALF LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY EVENING. THUS RUNNING WITH MAINLY LOW POPS MOUNTAINS WED NIGHT
AND HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELYS THURSDAY GIVEN THE OVERRUNNING NATURE TO THE
WARM ADVECTION PRECIP. WEAK COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY FRIDAY BUT
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR THROUGH THE REGION THE BOUNDARY MAKES IT IF AT
ALL GIVEN DIFFERING GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS OF MORE ENERGY SPILLING INTO THE
UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST. FOR NOW WILL RUN WITH CHANCE POPS ON FRIDAY
WHICH SUPPORTS THE PREVIOUS SLOWER EC SOLUTION.

TEMPS TO REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY MID OR LATE WEEK GIVEN
FLATTER FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION BY WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY WHEN SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD 60S/70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
WINDS COULD GUST FROM THE NORTHWEST UP TO 30 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THESE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
AREA TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOME MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH AN ALBERTA CLIPPER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 455 AM EDT FRIDAY...

RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 29:

ROANOKE......19 IN 1982
BLACKSBURG...17 IN 2001
LYNCHBURG....23 IN 1923 AND 1982
DANVILLE.....23 IN 1966
BLUEFIELD....19 IN 1966 AND 1982
LEWISBURG....18 IN 1983

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...AMS/KK
CLIMATE...AMS/SK




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281551
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1151 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND SETTLES OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AFTER PICKING UP AROUND ONE INCH OF SNOW ON GRASSY SURFACES AROUND
BLACKSTONE AND CREWE THIS MORNING...RECENT RADAR TRENDS ARE
SHOWING A DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES
ARE ALSO STARTING TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING IN AREAS WHERE SNOW FELL
EARLIER. SOME OBSERVATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST NC ARE REPORTING
LIGHT RAIN SO WILL ADD JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN
THROUGH 18Z THERE. OVERALL THE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON IN AREAS
WHERE SKIES WERE SUNNY THIS MORNING (ESPECIALLY N) AS LOW- LEVEL
INSTABILITY COMBINES WITH A SECONDARY VORT MAX TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD CU/SC. ISOLATED -SHRA...AND POSSIBLY A MIX OF
-SHRA/SHSN COULD PASS NEAR OCEAN CITY...BUT IT APPEARS MOST
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH ACROSS DELAWARE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...NEARLY -2 ST DEV...AND
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 40S N...TO MID/UPPER 40S S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANY LINGERING -SHRA/SHSN SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. THE SKY
SHOULD CLEAR FROM SW-NE...WITH MOST OF THE AREA BECOMING CLEAR
ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL BAND OF SC OFF THE BAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 20S...WITH UPPER 20S ALONG THE COASTS
OF SE VA/NE NC. CURRENT FORECAST LOWS ARE NOT RECORDS...BUT COULD
BE CLOSE DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH DECOUPLING OCCURS. RECORD VALUES
ARE LISTED BELOW IN THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR REFERENCE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY...SUNNY...AND COOL CONDITIONS WITH A LIGHT NW
WIND BECOMING SW BY AFTERNOON. LIMITED MIXING WILL ONLY ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE
LOW/MID 50S OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSS THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY...SO
THERE IS ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY FOR -SHRA (~20% OVER WRN
PORTIONS). THE BOUNDARY DROPS S OF THE REGION EARLY MONDAY WITH
DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW DEVELOPING MONDAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
EARLY SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY BY
AFTERNOON. IMPROVED MIXING AND MORE SUN WILL RESULT IN HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 60S E...TO MID/UPPER 60S W. THIS WILL BE
AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN PREVAILS THRU THE EXTENDED...AS NRN STREAM
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACTIVE. THE FIRST NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE EXITS THE
COAST LATE MON NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE REACHING THE OH VALLEY
LATE TUES. ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND TUES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TRACK
OF THE NRN STREAM LOW...WITH THE 27/12Z GFS LIFTING IT THRU NE...THE
27/12Z ECMWF THRU THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND THE 27/12Z CMC
THRU NC. BASED ON THE OVERALL PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW...PREFER THE NRN TRACK...KEEPING THE FA DRY. ASSOCIATED WEAK
COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION TUES NIGHT-WEDS. LIMITED
MOISTURE AND LITTLE APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL RESULT IN A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE. UPPER/SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ERN CONUS WEDS.
THEREAFTER...MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE HANDLING OF A SRN STREAM SYSTEM
LIFTING FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE GULF STATES WEDS-WEDS NIGHT.
GFS QUICKER TO RETURN MOISTURE TO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATES OFF THE SE COAST WEDS-WEDS NIGHT...WHILE ITS ECMWF AND CMC
COUNTERPARTS ARE SLOWER WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN. THEREAFTER...THE
NEXT NRN STREAM SYSTEM PROGGED TO REACH THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY
LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT SPATIAL AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST...WITH THE GFS PUSHING THE FRONT THRU 18
HRS BEFORE THE ECMWF (FRI VS. SAT MORNING). WILL MAINTAIN LOW END
CHANCE POPS BEGINNING THURS. WILL CARRY LOW END CHANCE POPS THROUGH
FRI...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM.

TEMPS TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED WILL BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONABLE
NORMS...IN THE 60S INLAND AND UPPER 50S-LOW 60S ERN SHORE AND
COASTAL AREAS. THURS HIGHS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON POTENTIAL CLOUD
COVER/PRECIP. HAVE OPTED FOR A BLEND...RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 INLAND AND LOW-MID 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL
AREAS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR THRU THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. LO PRES PUSHES OFFSHORE TDA AS HI
PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W. N/NW WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY BETWEEN
THESE TWO FEATURES TDA...WITH SOME 4-7K FT CLOUDS STICKING AROUND
AS WELL. EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS BY THIS AFTN AND DIMINISHING
WINDS AFTER SUNSET. DRY WX CONTINUES INTO SUN WITH HI PRES
CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS. AFTER A COLD FROPA MON...HI PRES
RETURNS FOR TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS DEVELOPING LO PRES OFF THE VA/NC CST
WITH HI PRES OVER THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES STATES. WINDS ARE STARTING
TO PICK UP THIS MORNG OVER THE LOCAL WTRS IN ASSOCIATION WITH CAA
BEHIND THE OFFSHORE LO. FOR TDA INTO TNGT...EXPECT WINDS INCREASING
TO 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT OVER THE BAY/OCEAN...AND 15-25
KNOTS OVER THE RIVERS AND SOUND. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
OVER MOST WTRS THRU SUN MORN/MIDDAY UNTIL HI PRESS FINALLY BLDS OVER
THE WATERS. WAVES GENERALLY 3-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. NW WINDS SUBSIDE
TO 10-15 KT SUN AFTERNOON WITH SEAS DROPPING BELOW 5 FT. HIGH
PRESSURE QUICKLY PASSES OVER THE REGION SUN...AND THEN MOVES
OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT. FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SSW. THE NEXT (WEAK) COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W LATE SUN. SW FLOW INCREASES LATE SUN
NIGHT...WITH MODELS INDICATING SCA CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BASED ON
WAA AND COLD WATER...CONFIDENCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS IS NOT HI
ATTM...AND WILL AVOID ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW ALSO WITH THE CURRENT
HEADLINES OUT. VERY LITTLE CAA IN WAKE OF THE FRONT LATE SUN NIGHT-
MON MORNING SO SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THEN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY 3/29:

RIC...22/1923
ORF...25/1982
SBY...18/1923
ECG...24/1982

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJZ/JAO
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281551
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1151 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND SETTLES OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AFTER PICKING UP AROUND ONE INCH OF SNOW ON GRASSY SURFACES AROUND
BLACKSTONE AND CREWE THIS MORNING...RECENT RADAR TRENDS ARE
SHOWING A DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES
ARE ALSO STARTING TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING IN AREAS WHERE SNOW FELL
EARLIER. SOME OBSERVATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST NC ARE REPORTING
LIGHT RAIN SO WILL ADD JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN
THROUGH 18Z THERE. OVERALL THE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON IN AREAS
WHERE SKIES WERE SUNNY THIS MORNING (ESPECIALLY N) AS LOW- LEVEL
INSTABILITY COMBINES WITH A SECONDARY VORT MAX TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD CU/SC. ISOLATED -SHRA...AND POSSIBLY A MIX OF
-SHRA/SHSN COULD PASS NEAR OCEAN CITY...BUT IT APPEARS MOST
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH ACROSS DELAWARE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...NEARLY -2 ST DEV...AND
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 40S N...TO MID/UPPER 40S S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANY LINGERING -SHRA/SHSN SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. THE SKY
SHOULD CLEAR FROM SW-NE...WITH MOST OF THE AREA BECOMING CLEAR
ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL BAND OF SC OFF THE BAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 20S...WITH UPPER 20S ALONG THE COASTS
OF SE VA/NE NC. CURRENT FORECAST LOWS ARE NOT RECORDS...BUT COULD
BE CLOSE DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH DECOUPLING OCCURS. RECORD VALUES
ARE LISTED BELOW IN THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR REFERENCE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY...SUNNY...AND COOL CONDITIONS WITH A LIGHT NW
WIND BECOMING SW BY AFTERNOON. LIMITED MIXING WILL ONLY ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE
LOW/MID 50S OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSS THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY...SO
THERE IS ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY FOR -SHRA (~20% OVER WRN
PORTIONS). THE BOUNDARY DROPS S OF THE REGION EARLY MONDAY WITH
DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW DEVELOPING MONDAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
EARLY SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY BY
AFTERNOON. IMPROVED MIXING AND MORE SUN WILL RESULT IN HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 60S E...TO MID/UPPER 60S W. THIS WILL BE
AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN PREVAILS THRU THE EXTENDED...AS NRN STREAM
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACTIVE. THE FIRST NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE EXITS THE
COAST LATE MON NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE REACHING THE OH VALLEY
LATE TUES. ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND TUES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TRACK
OF THE NRN STREAM LOW...WITH THE 27/12Z GFS LIFTING IT THRU NE...THE
27/12Z ECMWF THRU THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND THE 27/12Z CMC
THRU NC. BASED ON THE OVERALL PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW...PREFER THE NRN TRACK...KEEPING THE FA DRY. ASSOCIATED WEAK
COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION TUES NIGHT-WEDS. LIMITED
MOISTURE AND LITTLE APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL RESULT IN A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE. UPPER/SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ERN CONUS WEDS.
THEREAFTER...MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE HANDLING OF A SRN STREAM SYSTEM
LIFTING FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE GULF STATES WEDS-WEDS NIGHT.
GFS QUICKER TO RETURN MOISTURE TO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATES OFF THE SE COAST WEDS-WEDS NIGHT...WHILE ITS ECMWF AND CMC
COUNTERPARTS ARE SLOWER WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN. THEREAFTER...THE
NEXT NRN STREAM SYSTEM PROGGED TO REACH THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY
LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT SPATIAL AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST...WITH THE GFS PUSHING THE FRONT THRU 18
HRS BEFORE THE ECMWF (FRI VS. SAT MORNING). WILL MAINTAIN LOW END
CHANCE POPS BEGINNING THURS. WILL CARRY LOW END CHANCE POPS THROUGH
FRI...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM.

TEMPS TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED WILL BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONABLE
NORMS...IN THE 60S INLAND AND UPPER 50S-LOW 60S ERN SHORE AND
COASTAL AREAS. THURS HIGHS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON POTENTIAL CLOUD
COVER/PRECIP. HAVE OPTED FOR A BLEND...RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 INLAND AND LOW-MID 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL
AREAS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR THRU THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. LO PRES PUSHES OFFSHORE TDA AS HI
PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W. N/NW WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY BETWEEN
THESE TWO FEATURES TDA...WITH SOME 4-7K FT CLOUDS STICKING AROUND
AS WELL. EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS BY THIS AFTN AND DIMINISHING
WINDS AFTER SUNSET. DRY WX CONTINUES INTO SUN WITH HI PRES
CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS. AFTER A COLD FROPA MON...HI PRES
RETURNS FOR TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS DEVELOPING LO PRES OFF THE VA/NC CST
WITH HI PRES OVER THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES STATES. WINDS ARE STARTING
TO PICK UP THIS MORNG OVER THE LOCAL WTRS IN ASSOCIATION WITH CAA
BEHIND THE OFFSHORE LO. FOR TDA INTO TNGT...EXPECT WINDS INCREASING
TO 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT OVER THE BAY/OCEAN...AND 15-25
KNOTS OVER THE RIVERS AND SOUND. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
OVER MOST WTRS THRU SUN MORN/MIDDAY UNTIL HI PRESS FINALLY BLDS OVER
THE WATERS. WAVES GENERALLY 3-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. NW WINDS SUBSIDE
TO 10-15 KT SUN AFTERNOON WITH SEAS DROPPING BELOW 5 FT. HIGH
PRESSURE QUICKLY PASSES OVER THE REGION SUN...AND THEN MOVES
OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT. FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SSW. THE NEXT (WEAK) COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W LATE SUN. SW FLOW INCREASES LATE SUN
NIGHT...WITH MODELS INDICATING SCA CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BASED ON
WAA AND COLD WATER...CONFIDENCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS IS NOT HI
ATTM...AND WILL AVOID ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW ALSO WITH THE CURRENT
HEADLINES OUT. VERY LITTLE CAA IN WAKE OF THE FRONT LATE SUN NIGHT-
MON MORNING SO SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THEN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY 3/29:

RIC...22/1923
ORF...25/1982
SBY...18/1923
ECG...24/1982

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJZ/JAO
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KLWX 281422
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1022 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY. A
SERIES OF WEAK SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC ANALY AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A STEEP TROF AXIS ACRS
THE GRTLKS/UPR OHVLY. THERE ARE SVRL ZONES OF CNVGNC EMBEDDED W/IN
THIS TROF. THE FIRST OF THESE WAS A DEWPT GRADIENT THAT SLID ACRS
THE ERN CWFA THIS MRNG. THE END RESULT WAS SCTD FLURRIES ACRS CWFA
WITH A MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF LGT-MDT SNW ACRS NE MD. RADR
ACTIVITY HAS GNRLY DIMINSHED...ALTHO RTNS IN ME MD SUGGEST THAT
FLURRIES LINGER. HV SCALED BACK ON ENHANCED POPS FOR THE MIDDAY
HRS.

LTST MDL GDNC CONT A TREND FIRST IDENTIFIED OVNGT-- A 2ND FAIRLY
VIGOROUS VORT WL PINWHEEL ACRS PA TAFTN NEAR A NEARLY CUTOFF H5
LOW. THIS FEATURE WL HV THE ADVANTAGE OF MAKING USE OF DECENT
LOW-MID LVL LAPSE RATES /5C/KM/...SUPPORTING ANOTHER BATCH OF
SHOWERS. SFC TEMPS SHUD BE WARMER...AND MAY PROMPT SOME MELTING.
HWVR...H8 TEMPS WL BE INVOF -12C AT THAT TIME...SO SOME SNOW AND
EVEN SOME GRAUPEL MAY FALL AS WELL. WL PAD MID-LATE AFTN POPS ACRS
NERN MD /AGAIN/ TO ACCT FOR THE 2ND ROUND.

TEMPS RUNNING COLDER THAN GDNC...AND ISNT HELPED BY THE NOW PATCHY
SNOWCOVER IN MD. HV TRIMMED MAXT BY SVRL DEGF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR.
GRADIENT WILL PREVENT WINDS FROM DIMINISHING...BUT THE AIR WILL BE
DRY AND ANOMALOUSLY COLD. ALL LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW
30F...WITH TEENS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND PERHAPS SOME SINGLE
DIGITS ON THE RIDGETOPS. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS.

THE SFC HIGH WILL QUICKLY DRIFT SE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AS THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. SKIES WILL BE
MAINLY SUNNY BUT RETURN FLOW WILL BE MODEST AND TEMPS WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH...NOT NEARLY AS AMPLIFIED OR STRONG AS THE CURRENT
ONE...WILL CLIP ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...SENDING
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. MOISTURE RETURN IS
LIMITED AND H8/H9 FLOW QUICKLY SHIFTS TO WESTERLY EVEN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE OPERATIONAL SUITE OF MODELS IS QUITE DRY EAST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT...BUT ENSEMBLE DATA HINTS AT A BRIEF WINDOW OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT FURTHER EAST. KEPT MENTION IN GENERALLY
ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN
THE COLD POCKETS.

DESPITE FROPA...THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL PROMOTE QUICK WARMING ON
MONDAY...WITH HIGHS SOARING INTO THE 60S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND
PERHAPS CLOSE TO 70 IN THE PIEDMONT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL PASS MAINLY TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY. MOST
LIKELY THE PRECIPITATION STAYS NORTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE BUT I
DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES IN ALMOST THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY AND ROUGHLY NORTH OF US 48/50 ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
RETURN FLOW COMMENCING AND WARM MOIST AIR QUICKLY SPREADING NORTH
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE IS
EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC ON
THURSDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. HIGHS
NEAR 70 ARE LIKELY IN VALLEYS WEST AND SOUTH OF DC.

MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE BEYOND THURSDAY...WITH THE 00Z GFS PUSHING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH ON FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER...AND IN THESE
SCENARIOS I TEND TO FAVOR A SLOWER SOLUTION RATHER THAN BARRELING A
FRONT THROUGH. SO FRIDAY WAS KEPT SEASONABLY WARM WITH RAIN
CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL MAINLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION COULD BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY. THESE COULD
CONTAIN A MIXTURE OF RA/SN AND GRAUPEL. HOWEVER DUE TO
ISOLATED/SCATTERED NATURE...PROBABILITY OF REDUCED CONDITIONS AT A
TERMINAL IS LOW. THE MOST FAVORED LOCATIONS MAY BE BWI/MTN FROM
THE MIDDAY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. CAN/T RULE OUT STRAY
FLURRIES AT OTHER TIMES...BUT LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS. NW WINDS NEAR
15 KT WITH GUSTS COMMONLY UP TO 25 KT DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
WINDS ONLY GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT.

VFR SUNDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON.

LOW CIGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. ONCE THAT
FRONT PASSES...GUSTY WEST WINDS UP TO 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SHRA ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT SO RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY/LOW CIGS ARE NOT
LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA WINDS PREVAIL ACRS ALL WATERS ATTM. MIXED LAYER WINDS REMAIN
BELOW 30 KT...SO THAT SHOULD REPRESENT AN UPPER LIMIT TO GUSTS...
ALTHO CURRENT OBS SUGGEST WE/RE MAKING USE OF FULL MIXING FOR THE
MRNG. SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN BAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN TONIGHT BUT WILL REMAIN TO THE
WEST...ALLOWING SCA CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SOME ON SUNDAY...BUT LAST VESTIGES OF NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW
SCA LEVEL GUSTS TO CONTINUE ON THE MAIN STEM OF THE BAY THROUGH
THE MORNING.

SOUTHERLY CHANNELING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL RAISE THE POTENTIAL
FOR GUSTS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...WINDS TURN OUT OF THE WEST
BUT BECOME STRONGER AND GUSTIER WITH WINDS/GUSTS SOLIDLY ABOVE SCA
LEVELS. CARRYING SOME GUSTS IN THE UPPER BAY OVER 30 KTS...SO WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR GALE POTENTIAL ON MONDAY. WINDS BEGIN TO SETTLE BY
TUESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LVLS UP TO A HALF-FOOT BELOW ASTRO PREDICTIONS ATTM. THIS
NEGATIVE DEPARTURE SHOULD ONLY BE ENHANCED THROUGH THE DAY AS
STRONG NW WINDS RESULT IN BLOW-OUT CONDS.
&&

.CLIMATE...
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING MAY APPROACH THE RECORD LOWS FOR THE
DATE. CURRENTLY THE FORECAST LOWS ARE ABOVE THESE RECORDS.
HOWEVER...IF THE LOW DROPS TO 21 OR LESS AT DULLES IT WOULD BE THE
COLDEST SO LATE IN THE SEASON SINCE 1987...AND IF THE LOW DROPS TO
24 OR LESS AT BWI IT WOULD BE THE COLDEST SO LATE IN THE SEASON
SINCE 1985.

SITE...3/29 RECORD MIN T...
DCA......18 (1923).........
BWI......18 (1923).........
IAD......20 (1982).........

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
PIKESVILLE NWR WILL EXPERIENCE SPORADIC OUTAGES TODAY AS
MAINTENANCE IS PERFORMED ON THE TOWER.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JE
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...HTS/ADS/JE
MARINE...HTS/ADS/JE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS
CLIMATE...DFH/JE
EQUIPMENT...HTS



000
FXUS61 KLWX 281422
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1022 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY. A
SERIES OF WEAK SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC ANALY AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A STEEP TROF AXIS ACRS
THE GRTLKS/UPR OHVLY. THERE ARE SVRL ZONES OF CNVGNC EMBEDDED W/IN
THIS TROF. THE FIRST OF THESE WAS A DEWPT GRADIENT THAT SLID ACRS
THE ERN CWFA THIS MRNG. THE END RESULT WAS SCTD FLURRIES ACRS CWFA
WITH A MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF LGT-MDT SNW ACRS NE MD. RADR
ACTIVITY HAS GNRLY DIMINSHED...ALTHO RTNS IN ME MD SUGGEST THAT
FLURRIES LINGER. HV SCALED BACK ON ENHANCED POPS FOR THE MIDDAY
HRS.

LTST MDL GDNC CONT A TREND FIRST IDENTIFIED OVNGT-- A 2ND FAIRLY
VIGOROUS VORT WL PINWHEEL ACRS PA TAFTN NEAR A NEARLY CUTOFF H5
LOW. THIS FEATURE WL HV THE ADVANTAGE OF MAKING USE OF DECENT
LOW-MID LVL LAPSE RATES /5C/KM/...SUPPORTING ANOTHER BATCH OF
SHOWERS. SFC TEMPS SHUD BE WARMER...AND MAY PROMPT SOME MELTING.
HWVR...H8 TEMPS WL BE INVOF -12C AT THAT TIME...SO SOME SNOW AND
EVEN SOME GRAUPEL MAY FALL AS WELL. WL PAD MID-LATE AFTN POPS ACRS
NERN MD /AGAIN/ TO ACCT FOR THE 2ND ROUND.

TEMPS RUNNING COLDER THAN GDNC...AND ISNT HELPED BY THE NOW PATCHY
SNOWCOVER IN MD. HV TRIMMED MAXT BY SVRL DEGF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR.
GRADIENT WILL PREVENT WINDS FROM DIMINISHING...BUT THE AIR WILL BE
DRY AND ANOMALOUSLY COLD. ALL LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW
30F...WITH TEENS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND PERHAPS SOME SINGLE
DIGITS ON THE RIDGETOPS. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS.

THE SFC HIGH WILL QUICKLY DRIFT SE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AS THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. SKIES WILL BE
MAINLY SUNNY BUT RETURN FLOW WILL BE MODEST AND TEMPS WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH...NOT NEARLY AS AMPLIFIED OR STRONG AS THE CURRENT
ONE...WILL CLIP ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...SENDING
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. MOISTURE RETURN IS
LIMITED AND H8/H9 FLOW QUICKLY SHIFTS TO WESTERLY EVEN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE OPERATIONAL SUITE OF MODELS IS QUITE DRY EAST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT...BUT ENSEMBLE DATA HINTS AT A BRIEF WINDOW OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT FURTHER EAST. KEPT MENTION IN GENERALLY
ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN
THE COLD POCKETS.

DESPITE FROPA...THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL PROMOTE QUICK WARMING ON
MONDAY...WITH HIGHS SOARING INTO THE 60S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND
PERHAPS CLOSE TO 70 IN THE PIEDMONT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL PASS MAINLY TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY. MOST
LIKELY THE PRECIPITATION STAYS NORTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE BUT I
DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES IN ALMOST THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY AND ROUGHLY NORTH OF US 48/50 ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
RETURN FLOW COMMENCING AND WARM MOIST AIR QUICKLY SPREADING NORTH
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE IS
EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC ON
THURSDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. HIGHS
NEAR 70 ARE LIKELY IN VALLEYS WEST AND SOUTH OF DC.

MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE BEYOND THURSDAY...WITH THE 00Z GFS PUSHING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH ON FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER...AND IN THESE
SCENARIOS I TEND TO FAVOR A SLOWER SOLUTION RATHER THAN BARRELING A
FRONT THROUGH. SO FRIDAY WAS KEPT SEASONABLY WARM WITH RAIN
CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL MAINLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION COULD BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY. THESE COULD
CONTAIN A MIXTURE OF RA/SN AND GRAUPEL. HOWEVER DUE TO
ISOLATED/SCATTERED NATURE...PROBABILITY OF REDUCED CONDITIONS AT A
TERMINAL IS LOW. THE MOST FAVORED LOCATIONS MAY BE BWI/MTN FROM
THE MIDDAY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. CAN/T RULE OUT STRAY
FLURRIES AT OTHER TIMES...BUT LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS. NW WINDS NEAR
15 KT WITH GUSTS COMMONLY UP TO 25 KT DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
WINDS ONLY GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT.

VFR SUNDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON.

LOW CIGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. ONCE THAT
FRONT PASSES...GUSTY WEST WINDS UP TO 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SHRA ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT SO RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY/LOW CIGS ARE NOT
LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA WINDS PREVAIL ACRS ALL WATERS ATTM. MIXED LAYER WINDS REMAIN
BELOW 30 KT...SO THAT SHOULD REPRESENT AN UPPER LIMIT TO GUSTS...
ALTHO CURRENT OBS SUGGEST WE/RE MAKING USE OF FULL MIXING FOR THE
MRNG. SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN BAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN TONIGHT BUT WILL REMAIN TO THE
WEST...ALLOWING SCA CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SOME ON SUNDAY...BUT LAST VESTIGES OF NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW
SCA LEVEL GUSTS TO CONTINUE ON THE MAIN STEM OF THE BAY THROUGH
THE MORNING.

SOUTHERLY CHANNELING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL RAISE THE POTENTIAL
FOR GUSTS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...WINDS TURN OUT OF THE WEST
BUT BECOME STRONGER AND GUSTIER WITH WINDS/GUSTS SOLIDLY ABOVE SCA
LEVELS. CARRYING SOME GUSTS IN THE UPPER BAY OVER 30 KTS...SO WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR GALE POTENTIAL ON MONDAY. WINDS BEGIN TO SETTLE BY
TUESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LVLS UP TO A HALF-FOOT BELOW ASTRO PREDICTIONS ATTM. THIS
NEGATIVE DEPARTURE SHOULD ONLY BE ENHANCED THROUGH THE DAY AS
STRONG NW WINDS RESULT IN BLOW-OUT CONDS.
&&

.CLIMATE...
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING MAY APPROACH THE RECORD LOWS FOR THE
DATE. CURRENTLY THE FORECAST LOWS ARE ABOVE THESE RECORDS.
HOWEVER...IF THE LOW DROPS TO 21 OR LESS AT DULLES IT WOULD BE THE
COLDEST SO LATE IN THE SEASON SINCE 1987...AND IF THE LOW DROPS TO
24 OR LESS AT BWI IT WOULD BE THE COLDEST SO LATE IN THE SEASON
SINCE 1985.

SITE...3/29 RECORD MIN T...
DCA......18 (1923).........
BWI......18 (1923).........
IAD......20 (1982).........

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
PIKESVILLE NWR WILL EXPERIENCE SPORADIC OUTAGES TODAY AS
MAINTENANCE IS PERFORMED ON THE TOWER.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JE
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...HTS/ADS/JE
MARINE...HTS/ADS/JE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS
CLIMATE...DFH/JE
EQUIPMENT...HTS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 281422
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1022 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY. A
SERIES OF WEAK SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC ANALY AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A STEEP TROF AXIS ACRS
THE GRTLKS/UPR OHVLY. THERE ARE SVRL ZONES OF CNVGNC EMBEDDED W/IN
THIS TROF. THE FIRST OF THESE WAS A DEWPT GRADIENT THAT SLID ACRS
THE ERN CWFA THIS MRNG. THE END RESULT WAS SCTD FLURRIES ACRS CWFA
WITH A MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF LGT-MDT SNW ACRS NE MD. RADR
ACTIVITY HAS GNRLY DIMINSHED...ALTHO RTNS IN ME MD SUGGEST THAT
FLURRIES LINGER. HV SCALED BACK ON ENHANCED POPS FOR THE MIDDAY
HRS.

LTST MDL GDNC CONT A TREND FIRST IDENTIFIED OVNGT-- A 2ND FAIRLY
VIGOROUS VORT WL PINWHEEL ACRS PA TAFTN NEAR A NEARLY CUTOFF H5
LOW. THIS FEATURE WL HV THE ADVANTAGE OF MAKING USE OF DECENT
LOW-MID LVL LAPSE RATES /5C/KM/...SUPPORTING ANOTHER BATCH OF
SHOWERS. SFC TEMPS SHUD BE WARMER...AND MAY PROMPT SOME MELTING.
HWVR...H8 TEMPS WL BE INVOF -12C AT THAT TIME...SO SOME SNOW AND
EVEN SOME GRAUPEL MAY FALL AS WELL. WL PAD MID-LATE AFTN POPS ACRS
NERN MD /AGAIN/ TO ACCT FOR THE 2ND ROUND.

TEMPS RUNNING COLDER THAN GDNC...AND ISNT HELPED BY THE NOW PATCHY
SNOWCOVER IN MD. HV TRIMMED MAXT BY SVRL DEGF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR.
GRADIENT WILL PREVENT WINDS FROM DIMINISHING...BUT THE AIR WILL BE
DRY AND ANOMALOUSLY COLD. ALL LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW
30F...WITH TEENS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND PERHAPS SOME SINGLE
DIGITS ON THE RIDGETOPS. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS.

THE SFC HIGH WILL QUICKLY DRIFT SE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AS THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. SKIES WILL BE
MAINLY SUNNY BUT RETURN FLOW WILL BE MODEST AND TEMPS WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH...NOT NEARLY AS AMPLIFIED OR STRONG AS THE CURRENT
ONE...WILL CLIP ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...SENDING
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. MOISTURE RETURN IS
LIMITED AND H8/H9 FLOW QUICKLY SHIFTS TO WESTERLY EVEN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE OPERATIONAL SUITE OF MODELS IS QUITE DRY EAST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT...BUT ENSEMBLE DATA HINTS AT A BRIEF WINDOW OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT FURTHER EAST. KEPT MENTION IN GENERALLY
ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN
THE COLD POCKETS.

DESPITE FROPA...THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL PROMOTE QUICK WARMING ON
MONDAY...WITH HIGHS SOARING INTO THE 60S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND
PERHAPS CLOSE TO 70 IN THE PIEDMONT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL PASS MAINLY TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY. MOST
LIKELY THE PRECIPITATION STAYS NORTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE BUT I
DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES IN ALMOST THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY AND ROUGHLY NORTH OF US 48/50 ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
RETURN FLOW COMMENCING AND WARM MOIST AIR QUICKLY SPREADING NORTH
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE IS
EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC ON
THURSDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. HIGHS
NEAR 70 ARE LIKELY IN VALLEYS WEST AND SOUTH OF DC.

MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE BEYOND THURSDAY...WITH THE 00Z GFS PUSHING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH ON FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER...AND IN THESE
SCENARIOS I TEND TO FAVOR A SLOWER SOLUTION RATHER THAN BARRELING A
FRONT THROUGH. SO FRIDAY WAS KEPT SEASONABLY WARM WITH RAIN
CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL MAINLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION COULD BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY. THESE COULD
CONTAIN A MIXTURE OF RA/SN AND GRAUPEL. HOWEVER DUE TO
ISOLATED/SCATTERED NATURE...PROBABILITY OF REDUCED CONDITIONS AT A
TERMINAL IS LOW. THE MOST FAVORED LOCATIONS MAY BE BWI/MTN FROM
THE MIDDAY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. CAN/T RULE OUT STRAY
FLURRIES AT OTHER TIMES...BUT LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS. NW WINDS NEAR
15 KT WITH GUSTS COMMONLY UP TO 25 KT DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
WINDS ONLY GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT.

VFR SUNDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON.

LOW CIGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. ONCE THAT
FRONT PASSES...GUSTY WEST WINDS UP TO 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SHRA ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT SO RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY/LOW CIGS ARE NOT
LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA WINDS PREVAIL ACRS ALL WATERS ATTM. MIXED LAYER WINDS REMAIN
BELOW 30 KT...SO THAT SHOULD REPRESENT AN UPPER LIMIT TO GUSTS...
ALTHO CURRENT OBS SUGGEST WE/RE MAKING USE OF FULL MIXING FOR THE
MRNG. SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN BAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN TONIGHT BUT WILL REMAIN TO THE
WEST...ALLOWING SCA CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SOME ON SUNDAY...BUT LAST VESTIGES OF NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW
SCA LEVEL GUSTS TO CONTINUE ON THE MAIN STEM OF THE BAY THROUGH
THE MORNING.

SOUTHERLY CHANNELING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL RAISE THE POTENTIAL
FOR GUSTS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...WINDS TURN OUT OF THE WEST
BUT BECOME STRONGER AND GUSTIER WITH WINDS/GUSTS SOLIDLY ABOVE SCA
LEVELS. CARRYING SOME GUSTS IN THE UPPER BAY OVER 30 KTS...SO WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR GALE POTENTIAL ON MONDAY. WINDS BEGIN TO SETTLE BY
TUESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LVLS UP TO A HALF-FOOT BELOW ASTRO PREDICTIONS ATTM. THIS
NEGATIVE DEPARTURE SHOULD ONLY BE ENHANCED THROUGH THE DAY AS
STRONG NW WINDS RESULT IN BLOW-OUT CONDS.
&&

.CLIMATE...
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING MAY APPROACH THE RECORD LOWS FOR THE
DATE. CURRENTLY THE FORECAST LOWS ARE ABOVE THESE RECORDS.
HOWEVER...IF THE LOW DROPS TO 21 OR LESS AT DULLES IT WOULD BE THE
COLDEST SO LATE IN THE SEASON SINCE 1987...AND IF THE LOW DROPS TO
24 OR LESS AT BWI IT WOULD BE THE COLDEST SO LATE IN THE SEASON
SINCE 1985.

SITE...3/29 RECORD MIN T...
DCA......18 (1923).........
BWI......18 (1923).........
IAD......20 (1982).........

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
PIKESVILLE NWR WILL EXPERIENCE SPORADIC OUTAGES TODAY AS
MAINTENANCE IS PERFORMED ON THE TOWER.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JE
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...HTS/ADS/JE
MARINE...HTS/ADS/JE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS
CLIMATE...DFH/JE
EQUIPMENT...HTS



000
FXUS61 KRNK 281347
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
947 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND
WILL CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT OVER
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ON SUNDAY WILL MOVE EAST AND CROSS THROUGH
THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 947 AM EDT SATURDAY...
MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO ISC GRIDS FOR POPS...WEATHER AND
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MORNING
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE
UPPER TROF HAS MOVED INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. LOW-LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. MORE CHANGES LATER...

AS OF 410 AM EDT SATURDAY...

AREA RADARS WERE DETECTING TWO AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION THIS
MORNING. ONE MAINLY EAST OF LYNCHBURG AND DANVILLE AND THE SECOND IN
THE WESTERN UPSLOPE AREAS...SPILLING INTO THE FOOTHILLS OF VIRGINIA
AND NORTH CAROLINA.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED A SHORT WAVE CROSSING INTO EASTERN
VIRGINIA. THE FEATURE WAS WITHIN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE UPPER
TROF AND BOTH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE PRECIPITATION ENDING IN THE EASTERN COUNTY
WARNING AREA BY 14Z/10AM. THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE HAD ENHANCED
UPSLOPE WINDS IN THE WEST. 850 MB WINDS WILL PEAK AROUND 30 TO 45
THIS MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN THROUGH
THE LIFT IS ADEQUATE...THE MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH BY NOON...ENDING
THE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES IN THE WEST.

AFTER SUNSET...EXPECT ANY REMAINING CLOUD COVER TO DISSIPATE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY
MORNING. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT AND WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS...THE DRY AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN LARGE
SPREAD BETWEEN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY AND LOWS TONIGHT.
RECORD LOWS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING IN
LYNCHBURG...BLACKSBURG...DANVILLE ...LEWISBURG AND BLUEFIELD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT SATURDAY...

WILL START SUNDAY MORNING OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...
RESULTING IN A CHILLY BEGINNING TO THE DAY. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDFLOW TO TAKE OVER BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DESPITE ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST WILL LIMIT HEATING...WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S WEST TO THE LOW 50S EAST.

CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE SUNDAY EVENING...WITH RAIN SHOWERS...AND
POSSIBLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER RIDGES...ENTERING SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA AFTER SUNSET. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL THEN PASS FROM THE
MOUNTAINS EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...MOST LIKELY IN A BROKEN LINE OF
BRIEF SHOWER ACTIVITY. BEHIND THIS LINE...WINDS WILL SHIFT WESTERLY
AND DOWNSLOPE...CAUSING RAINFALL TO DIMINISH EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...LEAVING ONLY RESIDUAL UPSLOPE SHOWERS ALONG THE WESTERN
RIDGES. WITH VERY LITTLE TIME FOR MOISTURE TO BUILD AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BELIEVE WE WILL SEE MAINLY LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY WHERE SNOW DOES OCCUR.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS PACIFIC IN
ORIGIN...MEANING NOT AS CHILLY AS THE CANADIAN AIRMASSES THAT HAVE
BROUGHT SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AS SUCH...THE
WARMING AFFECT OF DOWNSLOPE WIND FLOW COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AS CLOUDS CLEAR BY AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE MONDAY AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S WEST TO THE MID 60S EAST. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WILL ENSURE GUSTY
CONDITIONS...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE 40 MPH GUSTS ACROSS
THE HIGHER RIDGES DURING THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL MONDAY NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING GENERALLY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE TO
OUR SOUTH ON TUESDAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL CAUSE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW 60S
WEST/UPPER 60S EAST. THE CLIPPER COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT FRIDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON BOTH LEAD SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY HEADING
EAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER IN THE WEEK IN ADVANCE OF
MORE PRONOUNCED DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM 5H TROFFINESS BY THURSDAY.
ALTHOUGH PHASING LOOKS RATHER UNLIKELY...APPEARS DEEPENING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF WILL BE IN PLACE ALLOWING AN INITIAL SHOT OF
SHOWERS TO GET LIFTED NORTH OUT OF THE DAMPENING SOUTHERN WAVE. THIS
ALONG A SURFACE WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN TROUGH/COLD FRONT THAT
SHOULD ENHANCE LIFT ESPCLY WESTERN HALF LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY EVENING. THUS RUNNING WITH MAINLY LOW POPS MOUNTAINS WED NIGHT
AND HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELYS THURSDAY GIVEN THE OVERRUNNING NATURE TO THE
WARM ADVECTION PRECIP. WEAK COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY FRIDAY BUT
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR THROUGH THE REGION THE BOUNDARY MAKES IT IF AT
ALL GIVEN DIFFERING GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS OF MORE ENERGY SPILLING INTO THE
UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST. FOR NOW WILL RUN WITH CHANCE POPS ON FRIDAY
WHICH SUPPORTS THE PREVIOUS SLOWER EC SOLUTION.

TEMPS TO REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY MID OR LATE WEEK GIVEN
FLATTER FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION BY WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY WHEN SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD 60S/70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 725 PM EDT SATURDAY...

DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL SWEEP EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING AND A SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE TROF WILL MOVE OFF THE
VIRGINIA COAST. WINDS WILL GUST FROM THE NORTHWEST UP TO 30
KNOTS...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS MORNING BEHIND THIS
SHORT WAVE. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WITH HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS ON THE WESTERN SLOPES OF
THE APPALACHIANS...INCLUDING AT KBLF THROUGH 15Z/11AM.

MOISTURE ERODES BY THIS AFTERNOON SO REGION WILL BE VFR LATE
TODAY AND THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT AREA TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOME MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH AN ALBERTA CLIPPER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 455 AM EDT FRIDAY...

RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 29:

ROANOKE......19 IN 1982
BLACKSBURG...17 IN 2001
LYNCHBURG....23 IN 1923 AND 1982
DANVILLE.....23 IN 1966
BLUEFIELD....19 IN 1966 AND 1982
LEWISBURG....18 IN 1983

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...KK/NF
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...AMS
CLIMATE...AMS/SK




000
FXUS61 KRNK 281127
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
727 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND
WILL CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT OVER
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ON SUNDAY WILL MOVE EAST AND CROSS THROUGH
THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT SATURDAY...

AREA RADARS WERE DETECTING TWO AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION THIS
MORNING. ONE MAINLY EAST OF LYNCHBURG AND DANVILLE AND THE SECOND IN
THE WESTERN UPSLOPE AREAS...SPILLING INTO THE FOOTHILLS OF VIRGINIA
AND NORTH CAROLINA.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED A SHORT WAVE CROSSING INTO EASTERN
VIRGINIA. THE FEATURE WAS WITHIN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE UPPER
TROF AND BOTH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE PRECIPITATION ENDING IN THE EASTERN COUNTY
WARNING AREA BY 14Z/10AM. THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE HAD ENHANCED
UPSLOPE WINDS IN THE WEST. 850 MB WINDS WILL PEAK AROUND 30 TO 45
THIS MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN THROUGH
THE LIFT IS ADEQUATE...THE MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH BY NOON...ENDING
THE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES IN THE WEST.

AFTER SUNSET...EXPECT ANY REMAINING CLOUD COVER TO DISSIPATE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY
MORNING. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT AND WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS...THE DRY AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN LARGE
SPREAD BETWEEN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY AND LOWS TONIGHT.
RECORD LOWS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING IN
LYNCHBURG...BLACKSBURG...DANVILLE ...LEWISBURG AND BLUEFIELD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT SATURDAY...

WILL START SUNDAY MORNING OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...
RESULTING IN A CHILLY BEGINNING TO THE DAY. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDFLOW TO TAKE OVER BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DESPITE ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST WILL LIMIT HEATING...WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S WEST TO THE LOW 50S EAST.

CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE SUNDAY EVENING...WITH RAIN SHOWERS...AND
POSSIBLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER RIDGES...ENTERING SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA AFTER SUNSET. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL THEN PASS FROM THE
MOUNTAINS EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...MOST LIKELY IN A BROKEN LINE OF
BRIEF SHOWER ACTIVITY. BEHIND THIS LINE...WINDS WILL SHIFT WESTERLY
AND DOWNSLOPE...CAUSING RAINFALL TO DIMINISH EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...LEAVING ONLY RESIDUAL UPSLOPE SHOWERS ALONG THE WESTERN
RIDGES. WITH VERY LITTLE TIME FOR MOISTURE TO BUILD AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BELIEVE WE WILL SEE MAINLY LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY WHERE SNOW DOES OCCUR.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS PACIFIC IN
ORIGIN...MEANING NOT AS CHILLY AS THE CANADIAN AIRMASSES THAT HAVE
BROUGHT SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AS SUCH...THE
WARMING AFFECT OF DOWNSLOPE WIND FLOW COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AS CLOUDS CLEAR BY AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE MONDAY AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S WEST TO THE MID 60S EAST. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WILL ENSURE GUSTY
CONDITIONS...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE 40 MPH GUSTS ACROSS
THE HIGHER RIDGES DURING THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL MONDAY NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING GENERALLY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE TO
OUR SOUTH ON TUESDAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL CAUSE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW 60S
WEST/UPPER 60S EAST. THE CLIPPER COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT FRIDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON BOTH LEAD SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY HEADING
EAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER IN THE WEEK IN ADVANCE OF
MORE PRONOUNCED DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM 5H TROFFINESS BY THURSDAY.
ALTHOUGH PHASING LOOKS RATHER UNLIKELY...APPEARS DEEPENING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF WILL BE IN PLACE ALLOWING AN INITIAL SHOT OF
SHOWERS TO GET LIFTED NORTH OUT OF THE DAMPENING SOUTHERN WAVE. THIS
ALONG A SURFACE WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN TROUGH/COLD FRONT THAT
SHOULD ENHANCE LIFT ESPCLY WESTERN HALF LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY EVENING. THUS RUNNING WITH MAINLY LOW POPS MOUNTAINS WED NIGHT
AND HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELYS THURSDAY GIVEN THE OVERRUNNING NATURE TO THE
WARM ADVECTION PRECIP. WEAK COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY FRIDAY BUT
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR THROUGH THE REGION THE BOUNDARY MAKES IT IF AT
ALL GIVEN DIFFERING GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS OF MORE ENERGY SPILLING INTO THE
UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST. FOR NOW WILL RUN WITH CHANCE POPS ON FRIDAY
WHICH SUPPORTS THE PREVIOUS SLOWER EC SOLUTION.

TEMPS TO REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY MID OR LATE WEEK GIVEN
FLATTER FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION BY WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY WHEN SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD 60S/70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 725 PM EDT SATURDAY...

DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL SWEEP EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING AND A SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE TROF WILL MOVE OFF THE
VIRGINIA COAST. WINDS WILL GUST FROM THE NORTHWEST UP TO 30
KNOTS...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS MORNING BEHIND THIS
SHORT WAVE. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WITH HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS ON THE WESTERN SLOPES OF
THE APPALACHIANS...INCLUDING AT KBLF THROUGH 15Z/11AM.

MOISTURE ERODES BY THIS AFTERNOON SO REGION WILL BE VFR LATE
TODAY AND THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT AREA TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOME MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH AN ALBERTA CLIPPER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 455 AM EDT FRIDAY...

RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 29:

ROANOKE......19 IN 1982
BLACKSBURG...17 IN 2001
LYNCHBURG....23 IN 1923 AND 1982
DANVILLE.....23 IN 1966
BLUEFIELD....19 IN 1966 AND 1982
LEWISBURG....18 IN 1983

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...AMS
CLIMATE...AMS/SK



000
FXUS61 KRNK 281127
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
727 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND
WILL CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT OVER
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ON SUNDAY WILL MOVE EAST AND CROSS THROUGH
THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT SATURDAY...

AREA RADARS WERE DETECTING TWO AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION THIS
MORNING. ONE MAINLY EAST OF LYNCHBURG AND DANVILLE AND THE SECOND IN
THE WESTERN UPSLOPE AREAS...SPILLING INTO THE FOOTHILLS OF VIRGINIA
AND NORTH CAROLINA.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED A SHORT WAVE CROSSING INTO EASTERN
VIRGINIA. THE FEATURE WAS WITHIN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE UPPER
TROF AND BOTH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE PRECIPITATION ENDING IN THE EASTERN COUNTY
WARNING AREA BY 14Z/10AM. THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE HAD ENHANCED
UPSLOPE WINDS IN THE WEST. 850 MB WINDS WILL PEAK AROUND 30 TO 45
THIS MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN THROUGH
THE LIFT IS ADEQUATE...THE MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH BY NOON...ENDING
THE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES IN THE WEST.

AFTER SUNSET...EXPECT ANY REMAINING CLOUD COVER TO DISSIPATE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY
MORNING. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT AND WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS...THE DRY AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN LARGE
SPREAD BETWEEN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY AND LOWS TONIGHT.
RECORD LOWS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING IN
LYNCHBURG...BLACKSBURG...DANVILLE ...LEWISBURG AND BLUEFIELD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT SATURDAY...

WILL START SUNDAY MORNING OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...
RESULTING IN A CHILLY BEGINNING TO THE DAY. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDFLOW TO TAKE OVER BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DESPITE ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST WILL LIMIT HEATING...WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S WEST TO THE LOW 50S EAST.

CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE SUNDAY EVENING...WITH RAIN SHOWERS...AND
POSSIBLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER RIDGES...ENTERING SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA AFTER SUNSET. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL THEN PASS FROM THE
MOUNTAINS EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...MOST LIKELY IN A BROKEN LINE OF
BRIEF SHOWER ACTIVITY. BEHIND THIS LINE...WINDS WILL SHIFT WESTERLY
AND DOWNSLOPE...CAUSING RAINFALL TO DIMINISH EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...LEAVING ONLY RESIDUAL UPSLOPE SHOWERS ALONG THE WESTERN
RIDGES. WITH VERY LITTLE TIME FOR MOISTURE TO BUILD AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BELIEVE WE WILL SEE MAINLY LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY WHERE SNOW DOES OCCUR.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS PACIFIC IN
ORIGIN...MEANING NOT AS CHILLY AS THE CANADIAN AIRMASSES THAT HAVE
BROUGHT SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AS SUCH...THE
WARMING AFFECT OF DOWNSLOPE WIND FLOW COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AS CLOUDS CLEAR BY AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE MONDAY AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S WEST TO THE MID 60S EAST. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WILL ENSURE GUSTY
CONDITIONS...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE 40 MPH GUSTS ACROSS
THE HIGHER RIDGES DURING THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL MONDAY NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING GENERALLY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE TO
OUR SOUTH ON TUESDAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL CAUSE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW 60S
WEST/UPPER 60S EAST. THE CLIPPER COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT FRIDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON BOTH LEAD SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY HEADING
EAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER IN THE WEEK IN ADVANCE OF
MORE PRONOUNCED DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM 5H TROFFINESS BY THURSDAY.
ALTHOUGH PHASING LOOKS RATHER UNLIKELY...APPEARS DEEPENING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF WILL BE IN PLACE ALLOWING AN INITIAL SHOT OF
SHOWERS TO GET LIFTED NORTH OUT OF THE DAMPENING SOUTHERN WAVE. THIS
ALONG A SURFACE WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN TROUGH/COLD FRONT THAT
SHOULD ENHANCE LIFT ESPCLY WESTERN HALF LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY EVENING. THUS RUNNING WITH MAINLY LOW POPS MOUNTAINS WED NIGHT
AND HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELYS THURSDAY GIVEN THE OVERRUNNING NATURE TO THE
WARM ADVECTION PRECIP. WEAK COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY FRIDAY BUT
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR THROUGH THE REGION THE BOUNDARY MAKES IT IF AT
ALL GIVEN DIFFERING GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS OF MORE ENERGY SPILLING INTO THE
UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST. FOR NOW WILL RUN WITH CHANCE POPS ON FRIDAY
WHICH SUPPORTS THE PREVIOUS SLOWER EC SOLUTION.

TEMPS TO REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY MID OR LATE WEEK GIVEN
FLATTER FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION BY WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY WHEN SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD 60S/70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 725 PM EDT SATURDAY...

DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL SWEEP EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING AND A SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE TROF WILL MOVE OFF THE
VIRGINIA COAST. WINDS WILL GUST FROM THE NORTHWEST UP TO 30
KNOTS...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS MORNING BEHIND THIS
SHORT WAVE. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WITH HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS ON THE WESTERN SLOPES OF
THE APPALACHIANS...INCLUDING AT KBLF THROUGH 15Z/11AM.

MOISTURE ERODES BY THIS AFTERNOON SO REGION WILL BE VFR LATE
TODAY AND THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT AREA TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOME MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH AN ALBERTA CLIPPER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 455 AM EDT FRIDAY...

RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 29:

ROANOKE......19 IN 1982
BLACKSBURG...17 IN 2001
LYNCHBURG....23 IN 1923 AND 1982
DANVILLE.....23 IN 1966
BLUEFIELD....19 IN 1966 AND 1982
LEWISBURG....18 IN 1983

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...AMS
CLIMATE...AMS/SK




000
FXUS61 KRNK 281127
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
727 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND
WILL CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT OVER
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ON SUNDAY WILL MOVE EAST AND CROSS THROUGH
THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT SATURDAY...

AREA RADARS WERE DETECTING TWO AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION THIS
MORNING. ONE MAINLY EAST OF LYNCHBURG AND DANVILLE AND THE SECOND IN
THE WESTERN UPSLOPE AREAS...SPILLING INTO THE FOOTHILLS OF VIRGINIA
AND NORTH CAROLINA.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED A SHORT WAVE CROSSING INTO EASTERN
VIRGINIA. THE FEATURE WAS WITHIN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE UPPER
TROF AND BOTH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE PRECIPITATION ENDING IN THE EASTERN COUNTY
WARNING AREA BY 14Z/10AM. THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE HAD ENHANCED
UPSLOPE WINDS IN THE WEST. 850 MB WINDS WILL PEAK AROUND 30 TO 45
THIS MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN THROUGH
THE LIFT IS ADEQUATE...THE MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH BY NOON...ENDING
THE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES IN THE WEST.

AFTER SUNSET...EXPECT ANY REMAINING CLOUD COVER TO DISSIPATE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY
MORNING. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT AND WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS...THE DRY AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN LARGE
SPREAD BETWEEN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY AND LOWS TONIGHT.
RECORD LOWS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING IN
LYNCHBURG...BLACKSBURG...DANVILLE ...LEWISBURG AND BLUEFIELD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT SATURDAY...

WILL START SUNDAY MORNING OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...
RESULTING IN A CHILLY BEGINNING TO THE DAY. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDFLOW TO TAKE OVER BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DESPITE ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST WILL LIMIT HEATING...WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S WEST TO THE LOW 50S EAST.

CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE SUNDAY EVENING...WITH RAIN SHOWERS...AND
POSSIBLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER RIDGES...ENTERING SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA AFTER SUNSET. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL THEN PASS FROM THE
MOUNTAINS EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...MOST LIKELY IN A BROKEN LINE OF
BRIEF SHOWER ACTIVITY. BEHIND THIS LINE...WINDS WILL SHIFT WESTERLY
AND DOWNSLOPE...CAUSING RAINFALL TO DIMINISH EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...LEAVING ONLY RESIDUAL UPSLOPE SHOWERS ALONG THE WESTERN
RIDGES. WITH VERY LITTLE TIME FOR MOISTURE TO BUILD AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BELIEVE WE WILL SEE MAINLY LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY WHERE SNOW DOES OCCUR.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS PACIFIC IN
ORIGIN...MEANING NOT AS CHILLY AS THE CANADIAN AIRMASSES THAT HAVE
BROUGHT SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AS SUCH...THE
WARMING AFFECT OF DOWNSLOPE WIND FLOW COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AS CLOUDS CLEAR BY AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE MONDAY AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S WEST TO THE MID 60S EAST. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WILL ENSURE GUSTY
CONDITIONS...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE 40 MPH GUSTS ACROSS
THE HIGHER RIDGES DURING THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL MONDAY NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING GENERALLY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE TO
OUR SOUTH ON TUESDAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL CAUSE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW 60S
WEST/UPPER 60S EAST. THE CLIPPER COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT FRIDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON BOTH LEAD SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY HEADING
EAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER IN THE WEEK IN ADVANCE OF
MORE PRONOUNCED DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM 5H TROFFINESS BY THURSDAY.
ALTHOUGH PHASING LOOKS RATHER UNLIKELY...APPEARS DEEPENING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF WILL BE IN PLACE ALLOWING AN INITIAL SHOT OF
SHOWERS TO GET LIFTED NORTH OUT OF THE DAMPENING SOUTHERN WAVE. THIS
ALONG A SURFACE WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN TROUGH/COLD FRONT THAT
SHOULD ENHANCE LIFT ESPCLY WESTERN HALF LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY EVENING. THUS RUNNING WITH MAINLY LOW POPS MOUNTAINS WED NIGHT
AND HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELYS THURSDAY GIVEN THE OVERRUNNING NATURE TO THE
WARM ADVECTION PRECIP. WEAK COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY FRIDAY BUT
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR THROUGH THE REGION THE BOUNDARY MAKES IT IF AT
ALL GIVEN DIFFERING GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS OF MORE ENERGY SPILLING INTO THE
UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST. FOR NOW WILL RUN WITH CHANCE POPS ON FRIDAY
WHICH SUPPORTS THE PREVIOUS SLOWER EC SOLUTION.

TEMPS TO REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY MID OR LATE WEEK GIVEN
FLATTER FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION BY WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY WHEN SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD 60S/70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 725 PM EDT SATURDAY...

DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL SWEEP EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING AND A SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE TROF WILL MOVE OFF THE
VIRGINIA COAST. WINDS WILL GUST FROM THE NORTHWEST UP TO 30
KNOTS...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS MORNING BEHIND THIS
SHORT WAVE. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WITH HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS ON THE WESTERN SLOPES OF
THE APPALACHIANS...INCLUDING AT KBLF THROUGH 15Z/11AM.

MOISTURE ERODES BY THIS AFTERNOON SO REGION WILL BE VFR LATE
TODAY AND THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT AREA TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOME MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH AN ALBERTA CLIPPER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 455 AM EDT FRIDAY...

RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 29:

ROANOKE......19 IN 1982
BLACKSBURG...17 IN 2001
LYNCHBURG....23 IN 1923 AND 1982
DANVILLE.....23 IN 1966
BLUEFIELD....19 IN 1966 AND 1982
LEWISBURG....18 IN 1983

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...AMS
CLIMATE...AMS/SK




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281051
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
651 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND SETTLES OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY SHOWS THE MOIST FRONTAL BAND NOW WELL
OFFSHORE. THE UPPER SYSTEM LAGS BEHIND OVER CENTRAL VA/NC. THIS IS
TRIGGERING SOME -SHRA OVER THE PIEDMONT EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME
SNOW COULD MIX IN AS WELL...BUT SHOULD BE OF LITTLE IMPACT WITH
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 30S.

THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DROP S OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON (ESPECIALLY
N) AS LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY COMBINES WITH A SECONDARY VORT MAX TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CU/SC. ISOLATED -SHRA...AND POSSIBLY A MIX OF
-SHRA/SHSN COULD PASS ACROSS THE LOWER MD ERN SHORE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...NEARLY -2 ST DEV...AND
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 40S N...TO MID/UPPER 40S S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANY LINGERING -SHRA/SHSN SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. THE SKY
SHOULD CLEAR FROM SW-NE...WITH MOST OF THE AREA BECOMING CLEAR
ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL BAND OF SC OFF THE BAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 20S...WITH UPPER 20S ALONG THE COASTS
OF SE VA/NE NC. CURRENT FORECAST LOWS ARE NOT RECORDS...BUT COULD
BE CLOSE DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH DECOUPLING OCCURS. RECORD VALUES
ARE LISTED BELOW IN THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR REFERENCE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY...SUNNY...AND COOL CONDITIONS WITH A LIGHT NW
WIND BECOMING SW BY AFTERNOON. LIMITED MIXING WILL ONLY ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE
LOW/MID 50S OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSS THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY...SO
THERE IS ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY FOR -SHRA (~20% OVER WRN
PORTIONS). THE BOUNDARY DROPS S OF THE REGION EARLY MONDAY WITH
DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW DEVELOPING MONDAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
EARLY SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY BY
AFTERNOON. IMPROVED MIXING AND MORE SUN WILL RESULT IN HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 60S E...TO MID/UPPER 60S W. THIS WILL BE
AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN PREVAILS THRU THE EXTENDED...AS NRN STREAM
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACTIVE. THE FIRST NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE EXITS THE
COAST LATE MON NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE REACHING THE OH VALLEY
LATE TUES. ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND TUES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TRACK
OF THE NRN STREAM LOW...WITH THE 27/12Z GFS LIFTING IT THRU NE...THE
27/12Z ECMWF THRU THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND THE 27/12Z CMC
THRU NC. BASED ON THE OVERALL PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW...PREFER THE NRN TRACK...KEEPING THE FA DRY. ASSOCIATED WEAK
COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION TUES NIGHT-WEDS. LIMITED
MOISTURE AND LITTLE APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL RESULT IN A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE. UPPER/SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ERN CONUS WEDS.
THEREAFTER...MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE HANDLING OF A SRN STREAM SYSTEM
LIFTING FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE GULF STATES WEDS-WEDS NIGHT.
GFS QUICKER TO RETURN MOISTURE TO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATES OFF THE SE COAST WEDS-WEDS NIGHT...WHILE ITS ECMWF AND CMC
COUNTERPARTS ARE SLOWER WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN. THEREAFTER...THE
NEXT NRN STREAM SYSTEM PROGGED TO REACH THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY
LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT SPATIAL AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST...WITH THE GFS PUSHING THE FRONT THRU 18
HRS BEFORE THE ECMWF (FRI VS. SAT MORNING). WILL MAINTAIN LOW END
CHANCE POPS BEGINNING THURS. WILL CARRY LOW END CHANCE POPS THROUGH
FRI...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM.

TEMPS TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED WILL BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONABLE
NORMS...IN THE 60S INLAND AND UPPER 50S-LOW 60S ERN SHORE AND
COASTAL AREAS. THURS HIGHS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON POTENTIAL CLOUD
COVER/PRECIP. HAVE OPTED FOR A BLEND...RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 INLAND AND LOW-MID 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL
AREAS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR THRU THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. LO PRES PUSHES OFFSHORE TDA AS HI
PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W. N/NW WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY BETWEEN
THESE TWO FEATURES TDA...WITH SOME 4-7K FT CLOUDS STICKING AROUND
AS WELL. EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS BY THIS AFTN AND DIMINISHING
WINDS AFTER SUNSET. DRY WX CONTINUES INTO SUN WITH HI PRES
CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS. AFTER A COLD FROPA MON...HI PRES
RETURNS FOR TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS DEVELOPING LO PRES OFF THE VA/NC CST
WITH HI PRES OVER THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES STATES. WINDS ARE STARTING
TO PICK UP THIS MORNG OVER THE LOCAL WTRS IN ASSOCIATION WITH CAA
BEHIND THE OFFSHORE LO. FOR TDA INTO TNGT...EXPECT WINDS INCREASING
TO 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT OVER THE BAY/OCEAN...AND 15-25
KNOTS OVER THE RIVERS AND SOUND. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
OVER MOST WTRS THRU SUN MORN/MIDDAY UNTIL HI PRESS FINALLY BLDS OVER
THE WATERS. WAVES GENERALLY 3-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. NW WINDS SUBSIDE
TO 10-15 KT SUN AFTERNOON WITH SEAS DROPPING BELOW 5 FT. HIGH
PRESSURE QUICKLY PASSES OVER THE REGION SUN...AND THEN MOVES
OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT. FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SSW. THE NEXT (WEAK) COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W LATE SUN. SW FLOW INCREASES LATE SUN
NIGHT...WITH MODELS INDICATING SCA CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BASED ON
WAA AND COLD WATER...CONFIDENCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS IS NOT HI
ATTM...AND WILL AVOID ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW ALSO WITH THE CURRENT
HEADLINES OUT. VERY LITTLE CAA IN WAKE OF THE FRONT LATE SUN NIGHT-
MON MORNING SO SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THEN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY 3/29:

RIC...22/1923
ORF...25/1982
SBY...18/1923
ECG...24/1982

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281051
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
651 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND SETTLES OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY SHOWS THE MOIST FRONTAL BAND NOW WELL
OFFSHORE. THE UPPER SYSTEM LAGS BEHIND OVER CENTRAL VA/NC. THIS IS
TRIGGERING SOME -SHRA OVER THE PIEDMONT EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME
SNOW COULD MIX IN AS WELL...BUT SHOULD BE OF LITTLE IMPACT WITH
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 30S.

THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DROP S OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON (ESPECIALLY
N) AS LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY COMBINES WITH A SECONDARY VORT MAX TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CU/SC. ISOLATED -SHRA...AND POSSIBLY A MIX OF
-SHRA/SHSN COULD PASS ACROSS THE LOWER MD ERN SHORE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...NEARLY -2 ST DEV...AND
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 40S N...TO MID/UPPER 40S S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANY LINGERING -SHRA/SHSN SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. THE SKY
SHOULD CLEAR FROM SW-NE...WITH MOST OF THE AREA BECOMING CLEAR
ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL BAND OF SC OFF THE BAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 20S...WITH UPPER 20S ALONG THE COASTS
OF SE VA/NE NC. CURRENT FORECAST LOWS ARE NOT RECORDS...BUT COULD
BE CLOSE DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH DECOUPLING OCCURS. RECORD VALUES
ARE LISTED BELOW IN THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR REFERENCE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY...SUNNY...AND COOL CONDITIONS WITH A LIGHT NW
WIND BECOMING SW BY AFTERNOON. LIMITED MIXING WILL ONLY ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE
LOW/MID 50S OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSS THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY...SO
THERE IS ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY FOR -SHRA (~20% OVER WRN
PORTIONS). THE BOUNDARY DROPS S OF THE REGION EARLY MONDAY WITH
DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW DEVELOPING MONDAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
EARLY SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY BY
AFTERNOON. IMPROVED MIXING AND MORE SUN WILL RESULT IN HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 60S E...TO MID/UPPER 60S W. THIS WILL BE
AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN PREVAILS THRU THE EXTENDED...AS NRN STREAM
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACTIVE. THE FIRST NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE EXITS THE
COAST LATE MON NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE REACHING THE OH VALLEY
LATE TUES. ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND TUES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TRACK
OF THE NRN STREAM LOW...WITH THE 27/12Z GFS LIFTING IT THRU NE...THE
27/12Z ECMWF THRU THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND THE 27/12Z CMC
THRU NC. BASED ON THE OVERALL PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW...PREFER THE NRN TRACK...KEEPING THE FA DRY. ASSOCIATED WEAK
COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION TUES NIGHT-WEDS. LIMITED
MOISTURE AND LITTLE APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL RESULT IN A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE. UPPER/SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ERN CONUS WEDS.
THEREAFTER...MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE HANDLING OF A SRN STREAM SYSTEM
LIFTING FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE GULF STATES WEDS-WEDS NIGHT.
GFS QUICKER TO RETURN MOISTURE TO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATES OFF THE SE COAST WEDS-WEDS NIGHT...WHILE ITS ECMWF AND CMC
COUNTERPARTS ARE SLOWER WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN. THEREAFTER...THE
NEXT NRN STREAM SYSTEM PROGGED TO REACH THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY
LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT SPATIAL AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST...WITH THE GFS PUSHING THE FRONT THRU 18
HRS BEFORE THE ECMWF (FRI VS. SAT MORNING). WILL MAINTAIN LOW END
CHANCE POPS BEGINNING THURS. WILL CARRY LOW END CHANCE POPS THROUGH
FRI...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM.

TEMPS TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED WILL BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONABLE
NORMS...IN THE 60S INLAND AND UPPER 50S-LOW 60S ERN SHORE AND
COASTAL AREAS. THURS HIGHS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON POTENTIAL CLOUD
COVER/PRECIP. HAVE OPTED FOR A BLEND...RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 INLAND AND LOW-MID 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL
AREAS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR THRU THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. LO PRES PUSHES OFFSHORE TDA AS HI
PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W. N/NW WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY BETWEEN
THESE TWO FEATURES TDA...WITH SOME 4-7K FT CLOUDS STICKING AROUND
AS WELL. EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS BY THIS AFTN AND DIMINISHING
WINDS AFTER SUNSET. DRY WX CONTINUES INTO SUN WITH HI PRES
CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS. AFTER A COLD FROPA MON...HI PRES
RETURNS FOR TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS DEVELOPING LO PRES OFF THE VA/NC CST
WITH HI PRES OVER THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES STATES. WINDS ARE STARTING
TO PICK UP THIS MORNG OVER THE LOCAL WTRS IN ASSOCIATION WITH CAA
BEHIND THE OFFSHORE LO. FOR TDA INTO TNGT...EXPECT WINDS INCREASING
TO 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT OVER THE BAY/OCEAN...AND 15-25
KNOTS OVER THE RIVERS AND SOUND. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
OVER MOST WTRS THRU SUN MORN/MIDDAY UNTIL HI PRESS FINALLY BLDS OVER
THE WATERS. WAVES GENERALLY 3-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. NW WINDS SUBSIDE
TO 10-15 KT SUN AFTERNOON WITH SEAS DROPPING BELOW 5 FT. HIGH
PRESSURE QUICKLY PASSES OVER THE REGION SUN...AND THEN MOVES
OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT. FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SSW. THE NEXT (WEAK) COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W LATE SUN. SW FLOW INCREASES LATE SUN
NIGHT...WITH MODELS INDICATING SCA CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BASED ON
WAA AND COLD WATER...CONFIDENCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS IS NOT HI
ATTM...AND WILL AVOID ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW ALSO WITH THE CURRENT
HEADLINES OUT. VERY LITTLE CAA IN WAKE OF THE FRONT LATE SUN NIGHT-
MON MORNING SO SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THEN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY 3/29:

RIC...22/1923
ORF...25/1982
SBY...18/1923
ECG...24/1982

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281051
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
651 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND SETTLES OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY SHOWS THE MOIST FRONTAL BAND NOW WELL
OFFSHORE. THE UPPER SYSTEM LAGS BEHIND OVER CENTRAL VA/NC. THIS IS
TRIGGERING SOME -SHRA OVER THE PIEDMONT EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME
SNOW COULD MIX IN AS WELL...BUT SHOULD BE OF LITTLE IMPACT WITH
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 30S.

THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DROP S OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON (ESPECIALLY
N) AS LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY COMBINES WITH A SECONDARY VORT MAX TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CU/SC. ISOLATED -SHRA...AND POSSIBLY A MIX OF
-SHRA/SHSN COULD PASS ACROSS THE LOWER MD ERN SHORE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...NEARLY -2 ST DEV...AND
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 40S N...TO MID/UPPER 40S S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANY LINGERING -SHRA/SHSN SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. THE SKY
SHOULD CLEAR FROM SW-NE...WITH MOST OF THE AREA BECOMING CLEAR
ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL BAND OF SC OFF THE BAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 20S...WITH UPPER 20S ALONG THE COASTS
OF SE VA/NE NC. CURRENT FORECAST LOWS ARE NOT RECORDS...BUT COULD
BE CLOSE DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH DECOUPLING OCCURS. RECORD VALUES
ARE LISTED BELOW IN THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR REFERENCE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY...SUNNY...AND COOL CONDITIONS WITH A LIGHT NW
WIND BECOMING SW BY AFTERNOON. LIMITED MIXING WILL ONLY ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE
LOW/MID 50S OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSS THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY...SO
THERE IS ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY FOR -SHRA (~20% OVER WRN
PORTIONS). THE BOUNDARY DROPS S OF THE REGION EARLY MONDAY WITH
DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW DEVELOPING MONDAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
EARLY SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY BY
AFTERNOON. IMPROVED MIXING AND MORE SUN WILL RESULT IN HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 60S E...TO MID/UPPER 60S W. THIS WILL BE
AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN PREVAILS THRU THE EXTENDED...AS NRN STREAM
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACTIVE. THE FIRST NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE EXITS THE
COAST LATE MON NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE REACHING THE OH VALLEY
LATE TUES. ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND TUES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TRACK
OF THE NRN STREAM LOW...WITH THE 27/12Z GFS LIFTING IT THRU NE...THE
27/12Z ECMWF THRU THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND THE 27/12Z CMC
THRU NC. BASED ON THE OVERALL PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW...PREFER THE NRN TRACK...KEEPING THE FA DRY. ASSOCIATED WEAK
COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION TUES NIGHT-WEDS. LIMITED
MOISTURE AND LITTLE APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL RESULT IN A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE. UPPER/SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ERN CONUS WEDS.
THEREAFTER...MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE HANDLING OF A SRN STREAM SYSTEM
LIFTING FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE GULF STATES WEDS-WEDS NIGHT.
GFS QUICKER TO RETURN MOISTURE TO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATES OFF THE SE COAST WEDS-WEDS NIGHT...WHILE ITS ECMWF AND CMC
COUNTERPARTS ARE SLOWER WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN. THEREAFTER...THE
NEXT NRN STREAM SYSTEM PROGGED TO REACH THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY
LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT SPATIAL AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST...WITH THE GFS PUSHING THE FRONT THRU 18
HRS BEFORE THE ECMWF (FRI VS. SAT MORNING). WILL MAINTAIN LOW END
CHANCE POPS BEGINNING THURS. WILL CARRY LOW END CHANCE POPS THROUGH
FRI...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM.

TEMPS TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED WILL BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONABLE
NORMS...IN THE 60S INLAND AND UPPER 50S-LOW 60S ERN SHORE AND
COASTAL AREAS. THURS HIGHS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON POTENTIAL CLOUD
COVER/PRECIP. HAVE OPTED FOR A BLEND...RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 INLAND AND LOW-MID 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL
AREAS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR THRU THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. LO PRES PUSHES OFFSHORE TDA AS HI
PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W. N/NW WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY BETWEEN
THESE TWO FEATURES TDA...WITH SOME 4-7K FT CLOUDS STICKING AROUND
AS WELL. EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS BY THIS AFTN AND DIMINISHING
WINDS AFTER SUNSET. DRY WX CONTINUES INTO SUN WITH HI PRES
CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS. AFTER A COLD FROPA MON...HI PRES
RETURNS FOR TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS DEVELOPING LO PRES OFF THE VA/NC CST
WITH HI PRES OVER THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES STATES. WINDS ARE STARTING
TO PICK UP THIS MORNG OVER THE LOCAL WTRS IN ASSOCIATION WITH CAA
BEHIND THE OFFSHORE LO. FOR TDA INTO TNGT...EXPECT WINDS INCREASING
TO 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT OVER THE BAY/OCEAN...AND 15-25
KNOTS OVER THE RIVERS AND SOUND. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
OVER MOST WTRS THRU SUN MORN/MIDDAY UNTIL HI PRESS FINALLY BLDS OVER
THE WATERS. WAVES GENERALLY 3-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. NW WINDS SUBSIDE
TO 10-15 KT SUN AFTERNOON WITH SEAS DROPPING BELOW 5 FT. HIGH
PRESSURE QUICKLY PASSES OVER THE REGION SUN...AND THEN MOVES
OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT. FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SSW. THE NEXT (WEAK) COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W LATE SUN. SW FLOW INCREASES LATE SUN
NIGHT...WITH MODELS INDICATING SCA CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BASED ON
WAA AND COLD WATER...CONFIDENCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS IS NOT HI
ATTM...AND WILL AVOID ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW ALSO WITH THE CURRENT
HEADLINES OUT. VERY LITTLE CAA IN WAKE OF THE FRONT LATE SUN NIGHT-
MON MORNING SO SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THEN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY 3/29:

RIC...22/1923
ORF...25/1982
SBY...18/1923
ECG...24/1982

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281051
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
651 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND SETTLES OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY SHOWS THE MOIST FRONTAL BAND NOW WELL
OFFSHORE. THE UPPER SYSTEM LAGS BEHIND OVER CENTRAL VA/NC. THIS IS
TRIGGERING SOME -SHRA OVER THE PIEDMONT EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME
SNOW COULD MIX IN AS WELL...BUT SHOULD BE OF LITTLE IMPACT WITH
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 30S.

THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DROP S OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON (ESPECIALLY
N) AS LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY COMBINES WITH A SECONDARY VORT MAX TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CU/SC. ISOLATED -SHRA...AND POSSIBLY A MIX OF
-SHRA/SHSN COULD PASS ACROSS THE LOWER MD ERN SHORE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...NEARLY -2 ST DEV...AND
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 40S N...TO MID/UPPER 40S S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANY LINGERING -SHRA/SHSN SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. THE SKY
SHOULD CLEAR FROM SW-NE...WITH MOST OF THE AREA BECOMING CLEAR
ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL BAND OF SC OFF THE BAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 20S...WITH UPPER 20S ALONG THE COASTS
OF SE VA/NE NC. CURRENT FORECAST LOWS ARE NOT RECORDS...BUT COULD
BE CLOSE DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH DECOUPLING OCCURS. RECORD VALUES
ARE LISTED BELOW IN THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR REFERENCE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY...SUNNY...AND COOL CONDITIONS WITH A LIGHT NW
WIND BECOMING SW BY AFTERNOON. LIMITED MIXING WILL ONLY ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE
LOW/MID 50S OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSS THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY...SO
THERE IS ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY FOR -SHRA (~20% OVER WRN
PORTIONS). THE BOUNDARY DROPS S OF THE REGION EARLY MONDAY WITH
DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW DEVELOPING MONDAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
EARLY SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY BY
AFTERNOON. IMPROVED MIXING AND MORE SUN WILL RESULT IN HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 60S E...TO MID/UPPER 60S W. THIS WILL BE
AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN PREVAILS THRU THE EXTENDED...AS NRN STREAM
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACTIVE. THE FIRST NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE EXITS THE
COAST LATE MON NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE REACHING THE OH VALLEY
LATE TUES. ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND TUES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TRACK
OF THE NRN STREAM LOW...WITH THE 27/12Z GFS LIFTING IT THRU NE...THE
27/12Z ECMWF THRU THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND THE 27/12Z CMC
THRU NC. BASED ON THE OVERALL PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW...PREFER THE NRN TRACK...KEEPING THE FA DRY. ASSOCIATED WEAK
COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION TUES NIGHT-WEDS. LIMITED
MOISTURE AND LITTLE APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL RESULT IN A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE. UPPER/SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ERN CONUS WEDS.
THEREAFTER...MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE HANDLING OF A SRN STREAM SYSTEM
LIFTING FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE GULF STATES WEDS-WEDS NIGHT.
GFS QUICKER TO RETURN MOISTURE TO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATES OFF THE SE COAST WEDS-WEDS NIGHT...WHILE ITS ECMWF AND CMC
COUNTERPARTS ARE SLOWER WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN. THEREAFTER...THE
NEXT NRN STREAM SYSTEM PROGGED TO REACH THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY
LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT SPATIAL AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST...WITH THE GFS PUSHING THE FRONT THRU 18
HRS BEFORE THE ECMWF (FRI VS. SAT MORNING). WILL MAINTAIN LOW END
CHANCE POPS BEGINNING THURS. WILL CARRY LOW END CHANCE POPS THROUGH
FRI...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM.

TEMPS TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED WILL BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONABLE
NORMS...IN THE 60S INLAND AND UPPER 50S-LOW 60S ERN SHORE AND
COASTAL AREAS. THURS HIGHS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON POTENTIAL CLOUD
COVER/PRECIP. HAVE OPTED FOR A BLEND...RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 INLAND AND LOW-MID 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL
AREAS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR THRU THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. LO PRES PUSHES OFFSHORE TDA AS HI
PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W. N/NW WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY BETWEEN
THESE TWO FEATURES TDA...WITH SOME 4-7K FT CLOUDS STICKING AROUND
AS WELL. EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS BY THIS AFTN AND DIMINISHING
WINDS AFTER SUNSET. DRY WX CONTINUES INTO SUN WITH HI PRES
CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS. AFTER A COLD FROPA MON...HI PRES
RETURNS FOR TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS DEVELOPING LO PRES OFF THE VA/NC CST
WITH HI PRES OVER THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES STATES. WINDS ARE STARTING
TO PICK UP THIS MORNG OVER THE LOCAL WTRS IN ASSOCIATION WITH CAA
BEHIND THE OFFSHORE LO. FOR TDA INTO TNGT...EXPECT WINDS INCREASING
TO 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT OVER THE BAY/OCEAN...AND 15-25
KNOTS OVER THE RIVERS AND SOUND. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
OVER MOST WTRS THRU SUN MORN/MIDDAY UNTIL HI PRESS FINALLY BLDS OVER
THE WATERS. WAVES GENERALLY 3-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. NW WINDS SUBSIDE
TO 10-15 KT SUN AFTERNOON WITH SEAS DROPPING BELOW 5 FT. HIGH
PRESSURE QUICKLY PASSES OVER THE REGION SUN...AND THEN MOVES
OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT. FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SSW. THE NEXT (WEAK) COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W LATE SUN. SW FLOW INCREASES LATE SUN
NIGHT...WITH MODELS INDICATING SCA CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BASED ON
WAA AND COLD WATER...CONFIDENCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS IS NOT HI
ATTM...AND WILL AVOID ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW ALSO WITH THE CURRENT
HEADLINES OUT. VERY LITTLE CAA IN WAKE OF THE FRONT LATE SUN NIGHT-
MON MORNING SO SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THEN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY 3/29:

RIC...22/1923
ORF...25/1982
SBY...18/1923
ECG...24/1982

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KRNK 280819
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
419 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND
WILL CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT OVER
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ON SUNDAY WILL MOVE EAST AND CROSS THROUGH
THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT SATURDAY...

AREA RADARS WERE DETECTING TWO AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION THIS
MORNING. ONE MAINLY EAST OF LYNCHBURG AND DANVILLE AND THE SECOND IN
THE WESTERN UPSLOPE AREAS...SPILLING INTO THE FOOTHILLS OF VIRGINIA
AND NORTH CAROLINA.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED A SHORT WAVE CROSSING INTO EASTERN
VIRGINIA. THE FEATURE WAS WITHIN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE UPPER
TROF AND BOTH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE PRECIPITATION ENDING IN THE EASTERN COUNTY
WARNING AREA BY 14Z/10AM. THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE HAD ENHANCED
UPSLOPE WINDS IN THE WEST. 850 MB WINDS WILL PEAK AROUND 30 TO 45
THIS MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN THROUGH
THE LIFT IS ADEQUATE...THE MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH BY NOON...ENDING
THE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES IN THE WEST.

AFTER SUNSET...EXPECT ANY REMAINING CLOUD COVER TO DISSIPATE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY
MORNING. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT AND WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS...THE DRY AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN LARGE
SPREAD BETWEEN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY AND LOWS TONIGHT.
RECORD LOWS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING IN
LYNCHBURG...BLACKSBURG...DANVILLE ...LEWISBURG AND BLUEFIELD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT SATURDAY...

WILL START SUNDAY MORNING OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...
RESULTING IN A CHILLY BEGINNING TO THE DAY. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDFLOW TO TAKE OVER BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DESPITE ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST WILL LIMIT HEATING...WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S WEST TO THE LOW 50S EAST.

CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE SUNDAY EVENING...WITH RAIN SHOWERS...AND
POSSIBLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER RIDGES...ENTERING SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA AFTER SUNSET. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL THEN PASS FROM THE
MOUNTAINS EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...MOST LIKELY IN A BROKEN LINE OF
BRIEF SHOWER ACTIVITY. BEHIND THIS LINE...WINDS WILL SHIFT WESTERLY
AND DOWNSLOPE...CAUSING RAINFALL TO DIMINISH EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...LEAVING ONLY RESIDUAL UPSLOPE SHOWERS ALONG THE WESTERN
RIDGES. WITH VERY LITTLE TIME FOR MOISTURE TO BUILD AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BELIEVE WE WILL SEE MAINLY LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY WHERE SNOW DOES OCCUR.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS PACIFIC IN
ORIGIN...MEANING NOT AS CHILLY AS THE CANADIAN AIRMASSES THAT HAVE
BROUGHT SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AS SUCH...THE
WARMING AFFECT OF DOWNSLOPE WIND FLOW COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AS CLOUDS CLEAR BY AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE MONDAY AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S WEST TO THE MID 60S EAST. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WILL ENSURE GUSTY
CONDITIONS...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE 40 MPH GUSTS ACROSS
THE HIGHER RIDGES DURING THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL MONDAY NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING GENERALLY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE TO
OUR SOUTH ON TUESDAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL CAUSE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW 60S
WEST/UPPER 60S EAST. THE CLIPPER COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT FRIDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON BOTH LEAD SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY HEADING
EAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER IN THE WEEK IN ADVANCE OF
MORE PRONOUNCED DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM 5H TROFFINESS BY THURSDAY.
ALTHOUGH PHASING LOOKS RATHER UNLIKELY...APPEARS DEEPENING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF WILL BE IN PLACE ALLOWING AN INITIAL SHOT OF
SHOWERS TO GET LIFTED NORTH OUT OF THE DAMPENING SOUTHERN WAVE. THIS
ALONG A SURFACE WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN TROUGH/COLD FRONT THAT
SHOULD ENHANCE LIFT ESPCLY WESTERN HALF LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY EVENING. THUS RUNNING WITH MAINLY LOW POPS MOUNTAINS WED NIGHT
AND HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELYS THURSDAY GIVEN THE OVERRUNNING NATURE TO THE
WARM ADVECTION PRECIP. WEAK COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY FRIDAY BUT
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR THROUGH THE REGION THE BOUNDARY MAKES IT IF AT
ALL GIVEN DIFFERING GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS OF MORE ENERGY SPILLING INTO THE
UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST. FOR NOW WILL RUN WITH CHANCE POPS ON FRIDAY
WHICH SUPPORTS THE PREVIOUS SLOWER EC SOLUTION.

TEMPS TO REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY MID OR LATE WEEK GIVEN
FLATTER FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION BY WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY WHEN SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD 60S/70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 410 PM EDT SATURDAY...

DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL SWEEP EASTWARD THROUGH THE THIS MORNING
AND A SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
VIRGINIA. WINDS WILL GUST FROM THE NORTHWEST UP TO 30
KNOTS...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS MORNING BEHIND THIS
SHORT WAVE. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WITH HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS ON THE WESTERN SLOPES OF
THE APPALACHIANS...INCLUDING AT KBLF THROUGH 15Z/11AM.

MOISTURE ERODES THIS AFTERNOON SO REGION WILL BE VFR LATE TODAY
AND THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT AREA TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOME MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH AN ALBERTA CLIPPER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 455 AM EDT FRIDAY...

RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 29:

ROANOKE......19 IN 1982
BLACKSBURG...17 IN 2001
LYNCHBURG....23 IN 1923 AND 1982
DANVILLE.....23 IN 1966
BLUEFIELD....19 IN 1966 AND 1982
LEWISBURG....18 IN 1983

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...AMS
CLIMATE...AMS/SK



000
FXUS61 KRNK 280819
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
419 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND
WILL CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT OVER
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ON SUNDAY WILL MOVE EAST AND CROSS THROUGH
THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT SATURDAY...

AREA RADARS WERE DETECTING TWO AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION THIS
MORNING. ONE MAINLY EAST OF LYNCHBURG AND DANVILLE AND THE SECOND IN
THE WESTERN UPSLOPE AREAS...SPILLING INTO THE FOOTHILLS OF VIRGINIA
AND NORTH CAROLINA.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED A SHORT WAVE CROSSING INTO EASTERN
VIRGINIA. THE FEATURE WAS WITHIN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE UPPER
TROF AND BOTH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE PRECIPITATION ENDING IN THE EASTERN COUNTY
WARNING AREA BY 14Z/10AM. THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE HAD ENHANCED
UPSLOPE WINDS IN THE WEST. 850 MB WINDS WILL PEAK AROUND 30 TO 45
THIS MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN THROUGH
THE LIFT IS ADEQUATE...THE MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH BY NOON...ENDING
THE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES IN THE WEST.

AFTER SUNSET...EXPECT ANY REMAINING CLOUD COVER TO DISSIPATE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY
MORNING. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT AND WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS...THE DRY AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN LARGE
SPREAD BETWEEN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY AND LOWS TONIGHT.
RECORD LOWS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING IN
LYNCHBURG...BLACKSBURG...DANVILLE ...LEWISBURG AND BLUEFIELD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT SATURDAY...

WILL START SUNDAY MORNING OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...
RESULTING IN A CHILLY BEGINNING TO THE DAY. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDFLOW TO TAKE OVER BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DESPITE ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST WILL LIMIT HEATING...WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S WEST TO THE LOW 50S EAST.

CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE SUNDAY EVENING...WITH RAIN SHOWERS...AND
POSSIBLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER RIDGES...ENTERING SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA AFTER SUNSET. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL THEN PASS FROM THE
MOUNTAINS EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...MOST LIKELY IN A BROKEN LINE OF
BRIEF SHOWER ACTIVITY. BEHIND THIS LINE...WINDS WILL SHIFT WESTERLY
AND DOWNSLOPE...CAUSING RAINFALL TO DIMINISH EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...LEAVING ONLY RESIDUAL UPSLOPE SHOWERS ALONG THE WESTERN
RIDGES. WITH VERY LITTLE TIME FOR MOISTURE TO BUILD AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BELIEVE WE WILL SEE MAINLY LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY WHERE SNOW DOES OCCUR.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS PACIFIC IN
ORIGIN...MEANING NOT AS CHILLY AS THE CANADIAN AIRMASSES THAT HAVE
BROUGHT SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AS SUCH...THE
WARMING AFFECT OF DOWNSLOPE WIND FLOW COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AS CLOUDS CLEAR BY AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE MONDAY AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S WEST TO THE MID 60S EAST. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WILL ENSURE GUSTY
CONDITIONS...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE 40 MPH GUSTS ACROSS
THE HIGHER RIDGES DURING THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL MONDAY NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING GENERALLY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE TO
OUR SOUTH ON TUESDAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL CAUSE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW 60S
WEST/UPPER 60S EAST. THE CLIPPER COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT FRIDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON BOTH LEAD SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY HEADING
EAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER IN THE WEEK IN ADVANCE OF
MORE PRONOUNCED DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM 5H TROFFINESS BY THURSDAY.
ALTHOUGH PHASING LOOKS RATHER UNLIKELY...APPEARS DEEPENING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF WILL BE IN PLACE ALLOWING AN INITIAL SHOT OF
SHOWERS TO GET LIFTED NORTH OUT OF THE DAMPENING SOUTHERN WAVE. THIS
ALONG A SURFACE WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN TROUGH/COLD FRONT THAT
SHOULD ENHANCE LIFT ESPCLY WESTERN HALF LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY EVENING. THUS RUNNING WITH MAINLY LOW POPS MOUNTAINS WED NIGHT
AND HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELYS THURSDAY GIVEN THE OVERRUNNING NATURE TO THE
WARM ADVECTION PRECIP. WEAK COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY FRIDAY BUT
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR THROUGH THE REGION THE BOUNDARY MAKES IT IF AT
ALL GIVEN DIFFERING GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS OF MORE ENERGY SPILLING INTO THE
UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST. FOR NOW WILL RUN WITH CHANCE POPS ON FRIDAY
WHICH SUPPORTS THE PREVIOUS SLOWER EC SOLUTION.

TEMPS TO REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY MID OR LATE WEEK GIVEN
FLATTER FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION BY WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY WHEN SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD 60S/70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 410 PM EDT SATURDAY...

DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL SWEEP EASTWARD THROUGH THE THIS MORNING
AND A SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
VIRGINIA. WINDS WILL GUST FROM THE NORTHWEST UP TO 30
KNOTS...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS MORNING BEHIND THIS
SHORT WAVE. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WITH HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS ON THE WESTERN SLOPES OF
THE APPALACHIANS...INCLUDING AT KBLF THROUGH 15Z/11AM.

MOISTURE ERODES THIS AFTERNOON SO REGION WILL BE VFR LATE TODAY
AND THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT AREA TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOME MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH AN ALBERTA CLIPPER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 455 AM EDT FRIDAY...

RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 29:

ROANOKE......19 IN 1982
BLACKSBURG...17 IN 2001
LYNCHBURG....23 IN 1923 AND 1982
DANVILLE.....23 IN 1966
BLUEFIELD....19 IN 1966 AND 1982
LEWISBURG....18 IN 1983

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...AMS
CLIMATE...AMS/SK



000
FXUS61 KRNK 280819
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
419 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND
WILL CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT OVER
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ON SUNDAY WILL MOVE EAST AND CROSS THROUGH
THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT SATURDAY...

AREA RADARS WERE DETECTING TWO AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION THIS
MORNING. ONE MAINLY EAST OF LYNCHBURG AND DANVILLE AND THE SECOND IN
THE WESTERN UPSLOPE AREAS...SPILLING INTO THE FOOTHILLS OF VIRGINIA
AND NORTH CAROLINA.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED A SHORT WAVE CROSSING INTO EASTERN
VIRGINIA. THE FEATURE WAS WITHIN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE UPPER
TROF AND BOTH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE PRECIPITATION ENDING IN THE EASTERN COUNTY
WARNING AREA BY 14Z/10AM. THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE HAD ENHANCED
UPSLOPE WINDS IN THE WEST. 850 MB WINDS WILL PEAK AROUND 30 TO 45
THIS MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN THROUGH
THE LIFT IS ADEQUATE...THE MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH BY NOON...ENDING
THE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES IN THE WEST.

AFTER SUNSET...EXPECT ANY REMAINING CLOUD COVER TO DISSIPATE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY
MORNING. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT AND WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS...THE DRY AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN LARGE
SPREAD BETWEEN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY AND LOWS TONIGHT.
RECORD LOWS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING IN
LYNCHBURG...BLACKSBURG...DANVILLE ...LEWISBURG AND BLUEFIELD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT SATURDAY...

WILL START SUNDAY MORNING OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...
RESULTING IN A CHILLY BEGINNING TO THE DAY. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDFLOW TO TAKE OVER BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DESPITE ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST WILL LIMIT HEATING...WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S WEST TO THE LOW 50S EAST.

CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE SUNDAY EVENING...WITH RAIN SHOWERS...AND
POSSIBLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER RIDGES...ENTERING SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA AFTER SUNSET. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL THEN PASS FROM THE
MOUNTAINS EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...MOST LIKELY IN A BROKEN LINE OF
BRIEF SHOWER ACTIVITY. BEHIND THIS LINE...WINDS WILL SHIFT WESTERLY
AND DOWNSLOPE...CAUSING RAINFALL TO DIMINISH EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...LEAVING ONLY RESIDUAL UPSLOPE SHOWERS ALONG THE WESTERN
RIDGES. WITH VERY LITTLE TIME FOR MOISTURE TO BUILD AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BELIEVE WE WILL SEE MAINLY LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY WHERE SNOW DOES OCCUR.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS PACIFIC IN
ORIGIN...MEANING NOT AS CHILLY AS THE CANADIAN AIRMASSES THAT HAVE
BROUGHT SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AS SUCH...THE
WARMING AFFECT OF DOWNSLOPE WIND FLOW COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AS CLOUDS CLEAR BY AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE MONDAY AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S WEST TO THE MID 60S EAST. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WILL ENSURE GUSTY
CONDITIONS...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE 40 MPH GUSTS ACROSS
THE HIGHER RIDGES DURING THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL MONDAY NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING GENERALLY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE TO
OUR SOUTH ON TUESDAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL CAUSE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW 60S
WEST/UPPER 60S EAST. THE CLIPPER COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT FRIDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON BOTH LEAD SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY HEADING
EAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER IN THE WEEK IN ADVANCE OF
MORE PRONOUNCED DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM 5H TROFFINESS BY THURSDAY.
ALTHOUGH PHASING LOOKS RATHER UNLIKELY...APPEARS DEEPENING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF WILL BE IN PLACE ALLOWING AN INITIAL SHOT OF
SHOWERS TO GET LIFTED NORTH OUT OF THE DAMPENING SOUTHERN WAVE. THIS
ALONG A SURFACE WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN TROUGH/COLD FRONT THAT
SHOULD ENHANCE LIFT ESPCLY WESTERN HALF LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY EVENING. THUS RUNNING WITH MAINLY LOW POPS MOUNTAINS WED NIGHT
AND HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELYS THURSDAY GIVEN THE OVERRUNNING NATURE TO THE
WARM ADVECTION PRECIP. WEAK COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY FRIDAY BUT
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR THROUGH THE REGION THE BOUNDARY MAKES IT IF AT
ALL GIVEN DIFFERING GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS OF MORE ENERGY SPILLING INTO THE
UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST. FOR NOW WILL RUN WITH CHANCE POPS ON FRIDAY
WHICH SUPPORTS THE PREVIOUS SLOWER EC SOLUTION.

TEMPS TO REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY MID OR LATE WEEK GIVEN
FLATTER FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION BY WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY WHEN SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD 60S/70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 410 PM EDT SATURDAY...

DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL SWEEP EASTWARD THROUGH THE THIS MORNING
AND A SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
VIRGINIA. WINDS WILL GUST FROM THE NORTHWEST UP TO 30
KNOTS...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS MORNING BEHIND THIS
SHORT WAVE. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WITH HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS ON THE WESTERN SLOPES OF
THE APPALACHIANS...INCLUDING AT KBLF THROUGH 15Z/11AM.

MOISTURE ERODES THIS AFTERNOON SO REGION WILL BE VFR LATE TODAY
AND THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT AREA TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOME MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH AN ALBERTA CLIPPER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 455 AM EDT FRIDAY...

RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 29:

ROANOKE......19 IN 1982
BLACKSBURG...17 IN 2001
LYNCHBURG....23 IN 1923 AND 1982
DANVILLE.....23 IN 1966
BLUEFIELD....19 IN 1966 AND 1982
LEWISBURG....18 IN 1983

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...AMS
CLIMATE...AMS/SK



000
FXUS61 KRNK 280819
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
419 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND
WILL CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT OVER
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ON SUNDAY WILL MOVE EAST AND CROSS THROUGH
THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT SATURDAY...

AREA RADARS WERE DETECTING TWO AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION THIS
MORNING. ONE MAINLY EAST OF LYNCHBURG AND DANVILLE AND THE SECOND IN
THE WESTERN UPSLOPE AREAS...SPILLING INTO THE FOOTHILLS OF VIRGINIA
AND NORTH CAROLINA.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED A SHORT WAVE CROSSING INTO EASTERN
VIRGINIA. THE FEATURE WAS WITHIN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE UPPER
TROF AND BOTH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE PRECIPITATION ENDING IN THE EASTERN COUNTY
WARNING AREA BY 14Z/10AM. THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE HAD ENHANCED
UPSLOPE WINDS IN THE WEST. 850 MB WINDS WILL PEAK AROUND 30 TO 45
THIS MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN THROUGH
THE LIFT IS ADEQUATE...THE MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH BY NOON...ENDING
THE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES IN THE WEST.

AFTER SUNSET...EXPECT ANY REMAINING CLOUD COVER TO DISSIPATE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY
MORNING. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT AND WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS...THE DRY AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN LARGE
SPREAD BETWEEN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY AND LOWS TONIGHT.
RECORD LOWS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING IN
LYNCHBURG...BLACKSBURG...DANVILLE ...LEWISBURG AND BLUEFIELD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT SATURDAY...

WILL START SUNDAY MORNING OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...
RESULTING IN A CHILLY BEGINNING TO THE DAY. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDFLOW TO TAKE OVER BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DESPITE ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST WILL LIMIT HEATING...WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S WEST TO THE LOW 50S EAST.

CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE SUNDAY EVENING...WITH RAIN SHOWERS...AND
POSSIBLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER RIDGES...ENTERING SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA AFTER SUNSET. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL THEN PASS FROM THE
MOUNTAINS EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...MOST LIKELY IN A BROKEN LINE OF
BRIEF SHOWER ACTIVITY. BEHIND THIS LINE...WINDS WILL SHIFT WESTERLY
AND DOWNSLOPE...CAUSING RAINFALL TO DIMINISH EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...LEAVING ONLY RESIDUAL UPSLOPE SHOWERS ALONG THE WESTERN
RIDGES. WITH VERY LITTLE TIME FOR MOISTURE TO BUILD AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BELIEVE WE WILL SEE MAINLY LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY WHERE SNOW DOES OCCUR.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS PACIFIC IN
ORIGIN...MEANING NOT AS CHILLY AS THE CANADIAN AIRMASSES THAT HAVE
BROUGHT SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AS SUCH...THE
WARMING AFFECT OF DOWNSLOPE WIND FLOW COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AS CLOUDS CLEAR BY AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE MONDAY AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S WEST TO THE MID 60S EAST. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WILL ENSURE GUSTY
CONDITIONS...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE 40 MPH GUSTS ACROSS
THE HIGHER RIDGES DURING THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL MONDAY NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING GENERALLY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE TO
OUR SOUTH ON TUESDAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL CAUSE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW 60S
WEST/UPPER 60S EAST. THE CLIPPER COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT FRIDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON BOTH LEAD SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY HEADING
EAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER IN THE WEEK IN ADVANCE OF
MORE PRONOUNCED DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM 5H TROFFINESS BY THURSDAY.
ALTHOUGH PHASING LOOKS RATHER UNLIKELY...APPEARS DEEPENING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF WILL BE IN PLACE ALLOWING AN INITIAL SHOT OF
SHOWERS TO GET LIFTED NORTH OUT OF THE DAMPENING SOUTHERN WAVE. THIS
ALONG A SURFACE WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN TROUGH/COLD FRONT THAT
SHOULD ENHANCE LIFT ESPCLY WESTERN HALF LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY EVENING. THUS RUNNING WITH MAINLY LOW POPS MOUNTAINS WED NIGHT
AND HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELYS THURSDAY GIVEN THE OVERRUNNING NATURE TO THE
WARM ADVECTION PRECIP. WEAK COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY FRIDAY BUT
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR THROUGH THE REGION THE BOUNDARY MAKES IT IF AT
ALL GIVEN DIFFERING GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS OF MORE ENERGY SPILLING INTO THE
UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST. FOR NOW WILL RUN WITH CHANCE POPS ON FRIDAY
WHICH SUPPORTS THE PREVIOUS SLOWER EC SOLUTION.

TEMPS TO REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY MID OR LATE WEEK GIVEN
FLATTER FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION BY WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY WHEN SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD 60S/70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 410 PM EDT SATURDAY...

DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL SWEEP EASTWARD THROUGH THE THIS MORNING
AND A SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
VIRGINIA. WINDS WILL GUST FROM THE NORTHWEST UP TO 30
KNOTS...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS MORNING BEHIND THIS
SHORT WAVE. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WITH HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS ON THE WESTERN SLOPES OF
THE APPALACHIANS...INCLUDING AT KBLF THROUGH 15Z/11AM.

MOISTURE ERODES THIS AFTERNOON SO REGION WILL BE VFR LATE TODAY
AND THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT AREA TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOME MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH AN ALBERTA CLIPPER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 455 AM EDT FRIDAY...

RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 29:

ROANOKE......19 IN 1982
BLACKSBURG...17 IN 2001
LYNCHBURG....23 IN 1923 AND 1982
DANVILLE.....23 IN 1966
BLUEFIELD....19 IN 1966 AND 1982
LEWISBURG....18 IN 1983

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...AMS
CLIMATE...AMS/SK



000
FXUS61 KRNK 280819
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
419 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND
WILL CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT OVER
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ON SUNDAY WILL MOVE EAST AND CROSS THROUGH
THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT SATURDAY...

AREA RADARS WERE DETECTING TWO AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION THIS
MORNING. ONE MAINLY EAST OF LYNCHBURG AND DANVILLE AND THE SECOND IN
THE WESTERN UPSLOPE AREAS...SPILLING INTO THE FOOTHILLS OF VIRGINIA
AND NORTH CAROLINA.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED A SHORT WAVE CROSSING INTO EASTERN
VIRGINIA. THE FEATURE WAS WITHIN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE UPPER
TROF AND BOTH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE PRECIPITATION ENDING IN THE EASTERN COUNTY
WARNING AREA BY 14Z/10AM. THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE HAD ENHANCED
UPSLOPE WINDS IN THE WEST. 850 MB WINDS WILL PEAK AROUND 30 TO 45
THIS MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN THROUGH
THE LIFT IS ADEQUATE...THE MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH BY NOON...ENDING
THE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES IN THE WEST.

AFTER SUNSET...EXPECT ANY REMAINING CLOUD COVER TO DISSIPATE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY
MORNING. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT AND WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS...THE DRY AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN LARGE
SPREAD BETWEEN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY AND LOWS TONIGHT.
RECORD LOWS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING IN
LYNCHBURG...BLACKSBURG...DANVILLE ...LEWISBURG AND BLUEFIELD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT SATURDAY...

WILL START SUNDAY MORNING OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...
RESULTING IN A CHILLY BEGINNING TO THE DAY. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDFLOW TO TAKE OVER BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DESPITE ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST WILL LIMIT HEATING...WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S WEST TO THE LOW 50S EAST.

CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE SUNDAY EVENING...WITH RAIN SHOWERS...AND
POSSIBLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER RIDGES...ENTERING SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA AFTER SUNSET. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL THEN PASS FROM THE
MOUNTAINS EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...MOST LIKELY IN A BROKEN LINE OF
BRIEF SHOWER ACTIVITY. BEHIND THIS LINE...WINDS WILL SHIFT WESTERLY
AND DOWNSLOPE...CAUSING RAINFALL TO DIMINISH EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...LEAVING ONLY RESIDUAL UPSLOPE SHOWERS ALONG THE WESTERN
RIDGES. WITH VERY LITTLE TIME FOR MOISTURE TO BUILD AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BELIEVE WE WILL SEE MAINLY LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY WHERE SNOW DOES OCCUR.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS PACIFIC IN
ORIGIN...MEANING NOT AS CHILLY AS THE CANADIAN AIRMASSES THAT HAVE
BROUGHT SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AS SUCH...THE
WARMING AFFECT OF DOWNSLOPE WIND FLOW COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AS CLOUDS CLEAR BY AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE MONDAY AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S WEST TO THE MID 60S EAST. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WILL ENSURE GUSTY
CONDITIONS...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE 40 MPH GUSTS ACROSS
THE HIGHER RIDGES DURING THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL MONDAY NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING GENERALLY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE TO
OUR SOUTH ON TUESDAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL CAUSE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW 60S
WEST/UPPER 60S EAST. THE CLIPPER COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT FRIDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON BOTH LEAD SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY HEADING
EAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER IN THE WEEK IN ADVANCE OF
MORE PRONOUNCED DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM 5H TROFFINESS BY THURSDAY.
ALTHOUGH PHASING LOOKS RATHER UNLIKELY...APPEARS DEEPENING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF WILL BE IN PLACE ALLOWING AN INITIAL SHOT OF
SHOWERS TO GET LIFTED NORTH OUT OF THE DAMPENING SOUTHERN WAVE. THIS
ALONG A SURFACE WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN TROUGH/COLD FRONT THAT
SHOULD ENHANCE LIFT ESPCLY WESTERN HALF LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY EVENING. THUS RUNNING WITH MAINLY LOW POPS MOUNTAINS WED NIGHT
AND HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELYS THURSDAY GIVEN THE OVERRUNNING NATURE TO THE
WARM ADVECTION PRECIP. WEAK COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY FRIDAY BUT
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR THROUGH THE REGION THE BOUNDARY MAKES IT IF AT
ALL GIVEN DIFFERING GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS OF MORE ENERGY SPILLING INTO THE
UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST. FOR NOW WILL RUN WITH CHANCE POPS ON FRIDAY
WHICH SUPPORTS THE PREVIOUS SLOWER EC SOLUTION.

TEMPS TO REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY MID OR LATE WEEK GIVEN
FLATTER FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION BY WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY WHEN SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD 60S/70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 410 PM EDT SATURDAY...

DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL SWEEP EASTWARD THROUGH THE THIS MORNING
AND A SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
VIRGINIA. WINDS WILL GUST FROM THE NORTHWEST UP TO 30
KNOTS...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS MORNING BEHIND THIS
SHORT WAVE. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WITH HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS ON THE WESTERN SLOPES OF
THE APPALACHIANS...INCLUDING AT KBLF THROUGH 15Z/11AM.

MOISTURE ERODES THIS AFTERNOON SO REGION WILL BE VFR LATE TODAY
AND THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT AREA TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOME MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH AN ALBERTA CLIPPER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 455 AM EDT FRIDAY...

RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 29:

ROANOKE......19 IN 1982
BLACKSBURG...17 IN 2001
LYNCHBURG....23 IN 1923 AND 1982
DANVILLE.....23 IN 1966
BLUEFIELD....19 IN 1966 AND 1982
LEWISBURG....18 IN 1983

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...AMS
CLIMATE...AMS/SK




000
FXUS61 KRNK 280819
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
419 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND
WILL CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT OVER
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ON SUNDAY WILL MOVE EAST AND CROSS THROUGH
THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT SATURDAY...

AREA RADARS WERE DETECTING TWO AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION THIS
MORNING. ONE MAINLY EAST OF LYNCHBURG AND DANVILLE AND THE SECOND IN
THE WESTERN UPSLOPE AREAS...SPILLING INTO THE FOOTHILLS OF VIRGINIA
AND NORTH CAROLINA.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED A SHORT WAVE CROSSING INTO EASTERN
VIRGINIA. THE FEATURE WAS WITHIN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE UPPER
TROF AND BOTH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE PRECIPITATION ENDING IN THE EASTERN COUNTY
WARNING AREA BY 14Z/10AM. THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE HAD ENHANCED
UPSLOPE WINDS IN THE WEST. 850 MB WINDS WILL PEAK AROUND 30 TO 45
THIS MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN THROUGH
THE LIFT IS ADEQUATE...THE MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH BY NOON...ENDING
THE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES IN THE WEST.

AFTER SUNSET...EXPECT ANY REMAINING CLOUD COVER TO DISSIPATE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY
MORNING. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT AND WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS...THE DRY AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN LARGE
SPREAD BETWEEN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY AND LOWS TONIGHT.
RECORD LOWS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING IN
LYNCHBURG...BLACKSBURG...DANVILLE ...LEWISBURG AND BLUEFIELD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT SATURDAY...

WILL START SUNDAY MORNING OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...
RESULTING IN A CHILLY BEGINNING TO THE DAY. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDFLOW TO TAKE OVER BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DESPITE ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST WILL LIMIT HEATING...WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S WEST TO THE LOW 50S EAST.

CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE SUNDAY EVENING...WITH RAIN SHOWERS...AND
POSSIBLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER RIDGES...ENTERING SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA AFTER SUNSET. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL THEN PASS FROM THE
MOUNTAINS EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...MOST LIKELY IN A BROKEN LINE OF
BRIEF SHOWER ACTIVITY. BEHIND THIS LINE...WINDS WILL SHIFT WESTERLY
AND DOWNSLOPE...CAUSING RAINFALL TO DIMINISH EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...LEAVING ONLY RESIDUAL UPSLOPE SHOWERS ALONG THE WESTERN
RIDGES. WITH VERY LITTLE TIME FOR MOISTURE TO BUILD AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BELIEVE WE WILL SEE MAINLY LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY WHERE SNOW DOES OCCUR.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS PACIFIC IN
ORIGIN...MEANING NOT AS CHILLY AS THE CANADIAN AIRMASSES THAT HAVE
BROUGHT SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AS SUCH...THE
WARMING AFFECT OF DOWNSLOPE WIND FLOW COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AS CLOUDS CLEAR BY AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE MONDAY AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S WEST TO THE MID 60S EAST. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WILL ENSURE GUSTY
CONDITIONS...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE 40 MPH GUSTS ACROSS
THE HIGHER RIDGES DURING THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL MONDAY NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING GENERALLY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE TO
OUR SOUTH ON TUESDAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL CAUSE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW 60S
WEST/UPPER 60S EAST. THE CLIPPER COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT FRIDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON BOTH LEAD SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY HEADING
EAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER IN THE WEEK IN ADVANCE OF
MORE PRONOUNCED DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM 5H TROFFINESS BY THURSDAY.
ALTHOUGH PHASING LOOKS RATHER UNLIKELY...APPEARS DEEPENING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF WILL BE IN PLACE ALLOWING AN INITIAL SHOT OF
SHOWERS TO GET LIFTED NORTH OUT OF THE DAMPENING SOUTHERN WAVE. THIS
ALONG A SURFACE WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN TROUGH/COLD FRONT THAT
SHOULD ENHANCE LIFT ESPCLY WESTERN HALF LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY EVENING. THUS RUNNING WITH MAINLY LOW POPS MOUNTAINS WED NIGHT
AND HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELYS THURSDAY GIVEN THE OVERRUNNING NATURE TO THE
WARM ADVECTION PRECIP. WEAK COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY FRIDAY BUT
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR THROUGH THE REGION THE BOUNDARY MAKES IT IF AT
ALL GIVEN DIFFERING GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS OF MORE ENERGY SPILLING INTO THE
UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST. FOR NOW WILL RUN WITH CHANCE POPS ON FRIDAY
WHICH SUPPORTS THE PREVIOUS SLOWER EC SOLUTION.

TEMPS TO REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY MID OR LATE WEEK GIVEN
FLATTER FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION BY WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY WHEN SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD 60S/70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 410 PM EDT SATURDAY...

DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL SWEEP EASTWARD THROUGH THE THIS MORNING
AND A SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
VIRGINIA. WINDS WILL GUST FROM THE NORTHWEST UP TO 30
KNOTS...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS MORNING BEHIND THIS
SHORT WAVE. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WITH HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS ON THE WESTERN SLOPES OF
THE APPALACHIANS...INCLUDING AT KBLF THROUGH 15Z/11AM.

MOISTURE ERODES THIS AFTERNOON SO REGION WILL BE VFR LATE TODAY
AND THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT AREA TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOME MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH AN ALBERTA CLIPPER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 455 AM EDT FRIDAY...

RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 29:

ROANOKE......19 IN 1982
BLACKSBURG...17 IN 2001
LYNCHBURG....23 IN 1923 AND 1982
DANVILLE.....23 IN 1966
BLUEFIELD....19 IN 1966 AND 1982
LEWISBURG....18 IN 1983

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...AMS
CLIMATE...AMS/SK



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280802
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
402 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND SETTLES OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY SHOWS THE MOIST FRONTAL BAND NOW WELL
OFFSHORE. THE UPPER SYSTEM LAGS BEHIND OVER CENTRAL VA/NC. THIS IS
TRIGGERING SOME -SHRA OVER THE PIEDMONT EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME
SNOW COULD MIX IN AS WELL...BUT SHOULD BE OF LITTLE IMPACT WITH
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 30S.

THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DROP S OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON (ESPECIALLY
N) AS LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY COMBINES WITH A SECONDARY VORT MAX TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CU/SC. ISOLATED -SHRA...AND POSSIBLY A MIX OF
-SHRA/SHSN COULD PASS ACROSS THE LOWER MD ERN SHORE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...NEARLY -2 ST DEV...AND
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 40S N...TO MID/UPPER 40S S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANY LINGERING -SHRA/SHSN SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. THE SKY
SHOULD CLEAR FROM SW-NE...WITH MOST OF THE AREA BECOMING CLEAR
ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL BAND OF SC OFF THE BAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 20S...WITH UPPER 20S ALONG THE COASTS
OF SE VA/NE NC. CURRENT FORECAST LOWS ARE NOT RECORDS...BUT COULD
BE CLOSE DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH DECOUPLING OCCURS. RECORD VALUES
ARE LISTED BELOW IN THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR REFERENCE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY...SUNNY...AND COOL CONDITIONS WITH A LIGHT NW
WIND BECOMING SW BY AFTERNOON. LIMITED MIXING WILL ONLY ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE
LOW/MID 50S OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSS THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY...SO
THERE IS ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY FOR -SHRA (~20% OVER WRN
PORTIONS). THE BOUNDARY DROPS S OF THE REGION EARLY MONDAY WITH
DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW DEVELOPING MONDAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
EARLY SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY BY
AFTERNOON. IMPROVED MIXING AND MORE SUN WILL RESULT IN HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 60S E...TO MID/UPPER 60S W. THIS WILL BE
AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN PREVAILS THRU THE EXTENDED...AS NRN STREAM
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACTIVE. THE FIRST NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE EXITS THE
COAST LATE MON NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE REACHING THE OH VALLEY
LATE TUES. ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND TUES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TRACK
OF THE NRN STREAM LOW...WITH THE 27/12Z GFS LIFTING IT THRU NE...THE
27/12Z ECMWF THRU THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND THE 27/12Z CMC
THRU NC. BASED ON THE OVERALL PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW...PREFER THE NRN TRACK...KEEPING THE FA DRY. ASSOCIATED WEAK
COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION TUES NIGHT-WEDS. LIMITED
MOISTURE AND LITTLE APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL RESULT IN A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE. UPPER/SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ERN CONUS WEDS.
THEREAFTER...MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE HANDLING OF A SRN STREAM SYSTEM
LIFTING FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE GULF STATES WEDS-WEDS NIGHT.
GFS QUICKER TO RETURN MOISTURE TO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATES OFF THE SE COAST WEDS-WEDS NIGHT...WHILE ITS ECMWF AND CMC
COUNTERPARTS ARE SLOWER WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN. THEREAFTER...THE
NEXT NRN STREAM SYSTEM PROGGED TO REACH THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY
LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT SPATIAL AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST...WITH THE GFS PUSHING THE FRONT THRU 18
HRS BEFORE THE ECMWF (FRI VS. SAT MORNING). WILL MAINTAIN LOW END
CHANCE POPS BEGINNING THURS. WILL CARRY LOW END CHANCE POPS THROUGH
FRI...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM.

TEMPS TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED WILL BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONABLE
NORMS...IN THE 60S INLAND AND UPPER 50S-LOW 60S ERN SHORE AND
COASTAL AREAS. THURS HIGHS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON POTENTIAL CLOUD
COVER/PRECIP. HAVE OPTED FOR A BLEND...RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 INLAND AND LOW-MID 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL
AREAS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AND OUT
TO SEA OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MAINLY VFR WITH SOME MVFR
POSSIBLE AT SBY/ECG. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING. SCATTERED
-SHRA/-SHSN WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS
STRENGTHEN LATER THIS MORNING AS THE LOW OFF THE COAST INTENSIFIES
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SHOULD
PROMOTE GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS DEVELOPING LO PRES OFF THE VA/NC CST
WITH HI PRES OVER THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES STATES. WINDS ARE STARTING
TO PICK UP THIS MORNG OVER THE LOCAL WTRS IN ASSOCIATION WITH CAA
BEHIND THE OFFSHORE LO. FOR TDA INTO TNGT...EXPECT WINDS INCREASING
TO 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT OVER THE BAY/OCEAN...AND 15-25
KNOTS OVER THE RIVERS AND SOUND. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
OVER MOST WTRS THRU SUN MORN/MIDDAY UNTIL HI PRESS FINALLY BLDS OVER
THE WATERS. WAVES GENERALLY 3-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. NW WINDS SUBSIDE
TO 10-15 KT SUN AFTERNOON WITH SEAS DROPPING BELOW 5 FT. HIGH
PRESSURE QUICKLY PASSES OVER THE REGION SUN...AND THEN MOVES
OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT. FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SSW. THE NEXT (WEAK) COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W LATE SUN. SW FLOW INCREASES LATE SUN
NIGHT...WITH MODELS INDICATING SCA CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BASED ON
WAA AND COLD WATER...CONFIDENCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS IS NOT HI
ATTM...AND WILL AVOID ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW ALSO WITH THE CURRENT
HEADLINES OUT. VERY LITTLE CAA IN WAKE OF THE FRONT LATE SUN NIGHT-
MON MORNING SO SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THEN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY 3/29:

RIC...22/1923
ORF...25/1982
SBY...18/1923
ECG...24/1982

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS/DAP/LSA
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...AKQ



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280802
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
402 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND SETTLES OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY SHOWS THE MOIST FRONTAL BAND NOW WELL
OFFSHORE. THE UPPER SYSTEM LAGS BEHIND OVER CENTRAL VA/NC. THIS IS
TRIGGERING SOME -SHRA OVER THE PIEDMONT EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME
SNOW COULD MIX IN AS WELL...BUT SHOULD BE OF LITTLE IMPACT WITH
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 30S.

THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DROP S OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON (ESPECIALLY
N) AS LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY COMBINES WITH A SECONDARY VORT MAX TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CU/SC. ISOLATED -SHRA...AND POSSIBLY A MIX OF
-SHRA/SHSN COULD PASS ACROSS THE LOWER MD ERN SHORE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...NEARLY -2 ST DEV...AND
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 40S N...TO MID/UPPER 40S S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANY LINGERING -SHRA/SHSN SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. THE SKY
SHOULD CLEAR FROM SW-NE...WITH MOST OF THE AREA BECOMING CLEAR
ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL BAND OF SC OFF THE BAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 20S...WITH UPPER 20S ALONG THE COASTS
OF SE VA/NE NC. CURRENT FORECAST LOWS ARE NOT RECORDS...BUT COULD
BE CLOSE DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH DECOUPLING OCCURS. RECORD VALUES
ARE LISTED BELOW IN THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR REFERENCE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY...SUNNY...AND COOL CONDITIONS WITH A LIGHT NW
WIND BECOMING SW BY AFTERNOON. LIMITED MIXING WILL ONLY ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE
LOW/MID 50S OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSS THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY...SO
THERE IS ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY FOR -SHRA (~20% OVER WRN
PORTIONS). THE BOUNDARY DROPS S OF THE REGION EARLY MONDAY WITH
DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW DEVELOPING MONDAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
EARLY SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY BY
AFTERNOON. IMPROVED MIXING AND MORE SUN WILL RESULT IN HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 60S E...TO MID/UPPER 60S W. THIS WILL BE
AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN PREVAILS THRU THE EXTENDED...AS NRN STREAM
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACTIVE. THE FIRST NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE EXITS THE
COAST LATE MON NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE REACHING THE OH VALLEY
LATE TUES. ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND TUES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TRACK
OF THE NRN STREAM LOW...WITH THE 27/12Z GFS LIFTING IT THRU NE...THE
27/12Z ECMWF THRU THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND THE 27/12Z CMC
THRU NC. BASED ON THE OVERALL PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW...PREFER THE NRN TRACK...KEEPING THE FA DRY. ASSOCIATED WEAK
COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION TUES NIGHT-WEDS. LIMITED
MOISTURE AND LITTLE APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL RESULT IN A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE. UPPER/SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ERN CONUS WEDS.
THEREAFTER...MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE HANDLING OF A SRN STREAM SYSTEM
LIFTING FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE GULF STATES WEDS-WEDS NIGHT.
GFS QUICKER TO RETURN MOISTURE TO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATES OFF THE SE COAST WEDS-WEDS NIGHT...WHILE ITS ECMWF AND CMC
COUNTERPARTS ARE SLOWER WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN. THEREAFTER...THE
NEXT NRN STREAM SYSTEM PROGGED TO REACH THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY
LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT SPATIAL AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST...WITH THE GFS PUSHING THE FRONT THRU 18
HRS BEFORE THE ECMWF (FRI VS. SAT MORNING). WILL MAINTAIN LOW END
CHANCE POPS BEGINNING THURS. WILL CARRY LOW END CHANCE POPS THROUGH
FRI...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM.

TEMPS TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED WILL BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONABLE
NORMS...IN THE 60S INLAND AND UPPER 50S-LOW 60S ERN SHORE AND
COASTAL AREAS. THURS HIGHS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON POTENTIAL CLOUD
COVER/PRECIP. HAVE OPTED FOR A BLEND...RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 INLAND AND LOW-MID 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL
AREAS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AND OUT
TO SEA OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MAINLY VFR WITH SOME MVFR
POSSIBLE AT SBY/ECG. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING. SCATTERED
-SHRA/-SHSN WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS
STRENGTHEN LATER THIS MORNING AS THE LOW OFF THE COAST INTENSIFIES
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SHOULD
PROMOTE GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS DEVELOPING LO PRES OFF THE VA/NC CST
WITH HI PRES OVER THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES STATES. WINDS ARE STARTING
TO PICK UP THIS MORNG OVER THE LOCAL WTRS IN ASSOCIATION WITH CAA
BEHIND THE OFFSHORE LO. FOR TDA INTO TNGT...EXPECT WINDS INCREASING
TO 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT OVER THE BAY/OCEAN...AND 15-25
KNOTS OVER THE RIVERS AND SOUND. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
OVER MOST WTRS THRU SUN MORN/MIDDAY UNTIL HI PRESS FINALLY BLDS OVER
THE WATERS. WAVES GENERALLY 3-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. NW WINDS SUBSIDE
TO 10-15 KT SUN AFTERNOON WITH SEAS DROPPING BELOW 5 FT. HIGH
PRESSURE QUICKLY PASSES OVER THE REGION SUN...AND THEN MOVES
OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT. FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SSW. THE NEXT (WEAK) COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W LATE SUN. SW FLOW INCREASES LATE SUN
NIGHT...WITH MODELS INDICATING SCA CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BASED ON
WAA AND COLD WATER...CONFIDENCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS IS NOT HI
ATTM...AND WILL AVOID ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW ALSO WITH THE CURRENT
HEADLINES OUT. VERY LITTLE CAA IN WAKE OF THE FRONT LATE SUN NIGHT-
MON MORNING SO SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THEN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY 3/29:

RIC...22/1923
ORF...25/1982
SBY...18/1923
ECG...24/1982

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS/DAP/LSA
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280802
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
402 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND SETTLES OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY SHOWS THE MOIST FRONTAL BAND NOW WELL
OFFSHORE. THE UPPER SYSTEM LAGS BEHIND OVER CENTRAL VA/NC. THIS IS
TRIGGERING SOME -SHRA OVER THE PIEDMONT EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME
SNOW COULD MIX IN AS WELL...BUT SHOULD BE OF LITTLE IMPACT WITH
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 30S.

THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DROP S OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON (ESPECIALLY
N) AS LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY COMBINES WITH A SECONDARY VORT MAX TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CU/SC. ISOLATED -SHRA...AND POSSIBLY A MIX OF
-SHRA/SHSN COULD PASS ACROSS THE LOWER MD ERN SHORE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...NEARLY -2 ST DEV...AND
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 40S N...TO MID/UPPER 40S S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANY LINGERING -SHRA/SHSN SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. THE SKY
SHOULD CLEAR FROM SW-NE...WITH MOST OF THE AREA BECOMING CLEAR
ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL BAND OF SC OFF THE BAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 20S...WITH UPPER 20S ALONG THE COASTS
OF SE VA/NE NC. CURRENT FORECAST LOWS ARE NOT RECORDS...BUT COULD
BE CLOSE DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH DECOUPLING OCCURS. RECORD VALUES
ARE LISTED BELOW IN THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR REFERENCE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY...SUNNY...AND COOL CONDITIONS WITH A LIGHT NW
WIND BECOMING SW BY AFTERNOON. LIMITED MIXING WILL ONLY ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE
LOW/MID 50S OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSS THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY...SO
THERE IS ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY FOR -SHRA (~20% OVER WRN
PORTIONS). THE BOUNDARY DROPS S OF THE REGION EARLY MONDAY WITH
DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW DEVELOPING MONDAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
EARLY SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY BY
AFTERNOON. IMPROVED MIXING AND MORE SUN WILL RESULT IN HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 60S E...TO MID/UPPER 60S W. THIS WILL BE
AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN PREVAILS THRU THE EXTENDED...AS NRN STREAM
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACTIVE. THE FIRST NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE EXITS THE
COAST LATE MON NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE REACHING THE OH VALLEY
LATE TUES. ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND TUES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TRACK
OF THE NRN STREAM LOW...WITH THE 27/12Z GFS LIFTING IT THRU NE...THE
27/12Z ECMWF THRU THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND THE 27/12Z CMC
THRU NC. BASED ON THE OVERALL PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW...PREFER THE NRN TRACK...KEEPING THE FA DRY. ASSOCIATED WEAK
COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION TUES NIGHT-WEDS. LIMITED
MOISTURE AND LITTLE APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL RESULT IN A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE. UPPER/SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ERN CONUS WEDS.
THEREAFTER...MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE HANDLING OF A SRN STREAM SYSTEM
LIFTING FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE GULF STATES WEDS-WEDS NIGHT.
GFS QUICKER TO RETURN MOISTURE TO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATES OFF THE SE COAST WEDS-WEDS NIGHT...WHILE ITS ECMWF AND CMC
COUNTERPARTS ARE SLOWER WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN. THEREAFTER...THE
NEXT NRN STREAM SYSTEM PROGGED TO REACH THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY
LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT SPATIAL AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST...WITH THE GFS PUSHING THE FRONT THRU 18
HRS BEFORE THE ECMWF (FRI VS. SAT MORNING). WILL MAINTAIN LOW END
CHANCE POPS BEGINNING THURS. WILL CARRY LOW END CHANCE POPS THROUGH
FRI...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM.

TEMPS TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED WILL BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONABLE
NORMS...IN THE 60S INLAND AND UPPER 50S-LOW 60S ERN SHORE AND
COASTAL AREAS. THURS HIGHS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON POTENTIAL CLOUD
COVER/PRECIP. HAVE OPTED FOR A BLEND...RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 INLAND AND LOW-MID 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL
AREAS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AND OUT
TO SEA OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MAINLY VFR WITH SOME MVFR
POSSIBLE AT SBY/ECG. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING. SCATTERED
-SHRA/-SHSN WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS
STRENGTHEN LATER THIS MORNING AS THE LOW OFF THE COAST INTENSIFIES
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SHOULD
PROMOTE GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS DEVELOPING LO PRES OFF THE VA/NC CST
WITH HI PRES OVER THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES STATES. WINDS ARE STARTING
TO PICK UP THIS MORNG OVER THE LOCAL WTRS IN ASSOCIATION WITH CAA
BEHIND THE OFFSHORE LO. FOR TDA INTO TNGT...EXPECT WINDS INCREASING
TO 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT OVER THE BAY/OCEAN...AND 15-25
KNOTS OVER THE RIVERS AND SOUND. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
OVER MOST WTRS THRU SUN MORN/MIDDAY UNTIL HI PRESS FINALLY BLDS OVER
THE WATERS. WAVES GENERALLY 3-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. NW WINDS SUBSIDE
TO 10-15 KT SUN AFTERNOON WITH SEAS DROPPING BELOW 5 FT. HIGH
PRESSURE QUICKLY PASSES OVER THE REGION SUN...AND THEN MOVES
OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT. FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SSW. THE NEXT (WEAK) COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W LATE SUN. SW FLOW INCREASES LATE SUN
NIGHT...WITH MODELS INDICATING SCA CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BASED ON
WAA AND COLD WATER...CONFIDENCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS IS NOT HI
ATTM...AND WILL AVOID ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW ALSO WITH THE CURRENT
HEADLINES OUT. VERY LITTLE CAA IN WAKE OF THE FRONT LATE SUN NIGHT-
MON MORNING SO SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THEN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY 3/29:

RIC...22/1923
ORF...25/1982
SBY...18/1923
ECG...24/1982

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS/DAP/LSA
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280802
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
402 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND SETTLES OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY SHOWS THE MOIST FRONTAL BAND NOW WELL
OFFSHORE. THE UPPER SYSTEM LAGS BEHIND OVER CENTRAL VA/NC. THIS IS
TRIGGERING SOME -SHRA OVER THE PIEDMONT EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME
SNOW COULD MIX IN AS WELL...BUT SHOULD BE OF LITTLE IMPACT WITH
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 30S.

THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DROP S OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON (ESPECIALLY
N) AS LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY COMBINES WITH A SECONDARY VORT MAX TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CU/SC. ISOLATED -SHRA...AND POSSIBLY A MIX OF
-SHRA/SHSN COULD PASS ACROSS THE LOWER MD ERN SHORE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...NEARLY -2 ST DEV...AND
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 40S N...TO MID/UPPER 40S S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANY LINGERING -SHRA/SHSN SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. THE SKY
SHOULD CLEAR FROM SW-NE...WITH MOST OF THE AREA BECOMING CLEAR
ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL BAND OF SC OFF THE BAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 20S...WITH UPPER 20S ALONG THE COASTS
OF SE VA/NE NC. CURRENT FORECAST LOWS ARE NOT RECORDS...BUT COULD
BE CLOSE DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH DECOUPLING OCCURS. RECORD VALUES
ARE LISTED BELOW IN THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR REFERENCE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY...SUNNY...AND COOL CONDITIONS WITH A LIGHT NW
WIND BECOMING SW BY AFTERNOON. LIMITED MIXING WILL ONLY ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE
LOW/MID 50S OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSS THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY...SO
THERE IS ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY FOR -SHRA (~20% OVER WRN
PORTIONS). THE BOUNDARY DROPS S OF THE REGION EARLY MONDAY WITH
DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW DEVELOPING MONDAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
EARLY SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY BY
AFTERNOON. IMPROVED MIXING AND MORE SUN WILL RESULT IN HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 60S E...TO MID/UPPER 60S W. THIS WILL BE
AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN PREVAILS THRU THE EXTENDED...AS NRN STREAM
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACTIVE. THE FIRST NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE EXITS THE
COAST LATE MON NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE REACHING THE OH VALLEY
LATE TUES. ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND TUES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TRACK
OF THE NRN STREAM LOW...WITH THE 27/12Z GFS LIFTING IT THRU NE...THE
27/12Z ECMWF THRU THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND THE 27/12Z CMC
THRU NC. BASED ON THE OVERALL PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW...PREFER THE NRN TRACK...KEEPING THE FA DRY. ASSOCIATED WEAK
COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION TUES NIGHT-WEDS. LIMITED
MOISTURE AND LITTLE APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL RESULT IN A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE. UPPER/SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ERN CONUS WEDS.
THEREAFTER...MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE HANDLING OF A SRN STREAM SYSTEM
LIFTING FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE GULF STATES WEDS-WEDS NIGHT.
GFS QUICKER TO RETURN MOISTURE TO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATES OFF THE SE COAST WEDS-WEDS NIGHT...WHILE ITS ECMWF AND CMC
COUNTERPARTS ARE SLOWER WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN. THEREAFTER...THE
NEXT NRN STREAM SYSTEM PROGGED TO REACH THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY
LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT SPATIAL AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST...WITH THE GFS PUSHING THE FRONT THRU 18
HRS BEFORE THE ECMWF (FRI VS. SAT MORNING). WILL MAINTAIN LOW END
CHANCE POPS BEGINNING THURS. WILL CARRY LOW END CHANCE POPS THROUGH
FRI...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM.

TEMPS TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED WILL BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONABLE
NORMS...IN THE 60S INLAND AND UPPER 50S-LOW 60S ERN SHORE AND
COASTAL AREAS. THURS HIGHS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON POTENTIAL CLOUD
COVER/PRECIP. HAVE OPTED FOR A BLEND...RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 INLAND AND LOW-MID 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL
AREAS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AND OUT
TO SEA OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MAINLY VFR WITH SOME MVFR
POSSIBLE AT SBY/ECG. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING. SCATTERED
-SHRA/-SHSN WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS
STRENGTHEN LATER THIS MORNING AS THE LOW OFF THE COAST INTENSIFIES
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SHOULD
PROMOTE GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS DEVELOPING LO PRES OFF THE VA/NC CST
WITH HI PRES OVER THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES STATES. WINDS ARE STARTING
TO PICK UP THIS MORNG OVER THE LOCAL WTRS IN ASSOCIATION WITH CAA
BEHIND THE OFFSHORE LO. FOR TDA INTO TNGT...EXPECT WINDS INCREASING
TO 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT OVER THE BAY/OCEAN...AND 15-25
KNOTS OVER THE RIVERS AND SOUND. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
OVER MOST WTRS THRU SUN MORN/MIDDAY UNTIL HI PRESS FINALLY BLDS OVER
THE WATERS. WAVES GENERALLY 3-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. NW WINDS SUBSIDE
TO 10-15 KT SUN AFTERNOON WITH SEAS DROPPING BELOW 5 FT. HIGH
PRESSURE QUICKLY PASSES OVER THE REGION SUN...AND THEN MOVES
OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT. FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SSW. THE NEXT (WEAK) COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W LATE SUN. SW FLOW INCREASES LATE SUN
NIGHT...WITH MODELS INDICATING SCA CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BASED ON
WAA AND COLD WATER...CONFIDENCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS IS NOT HI
ATTM...AND WILL AVOID ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW ALSO WITH THE CURRENT
HEADLINES OUT. VERY LITTLE CAA IN WAKE OF THE FRONT LATE SUN NIGHT-
MON MORNING SO SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THEN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY 3/29:

RIC...22/1923
ORF...25/1982
SBY...18/1923
ECG...24/1982

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS/DAP/LSA
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...AKQ



000
FXUS61 KLWX 280800
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY. A
SERIES OF WEAK SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
THIS MORNING WITH CONNECTIONS TO GREENLAND. A FRONT WITH DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE IS OFFSHORE...WHILE A SECONDARY ARCTIC FRONT IS PUSHING
INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS...NOTABLE IN THE DEW
POINT GRADIENT OVER THE REGION. SOME LIFT HAS BROUGHT VERY LIGHT
PRECIP TO CENTRAL VA...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT SE. BASED ON
REGIONAL RADAR AND OBS IN WV/PA...THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE AT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL THROUGH DAYBREAK...ALTHOUGH THE
BEST RETURNS HAVE LIKELY ALREADY OCCURRED. AREAS NEAR THE PA BORDER
MAY ALSO SEE A FLURRY.

BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS IN HI-RES GUIDANCE AND PROJECTED FORCING
MECHANISMS...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS THROUGH TODAY.
WHILE ROGUE FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE AT
ANYTIME...MAIN CHANCES WILL TAKE PLACE ONCE CONVECTIVE MIXING
OCCURS. EVEN THEN...THINK A COMPACT VORT MAX WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS
MAY BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN PRODUCING SHOWERS. THIS IS FORECAST TO
SKIRT INTO NORTHERN MD DURING THE MIDDAY/AFTERNOON HOURS. COVERAGE
IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED AT BEST SO HAVE MAINTAINED THE
CHANCE POPS...BUT TAPERED THEM OFF LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. DEPENDING
ON NEAR-SFC TEMPS AND THE INTENSITY OF THE
SHOWERS...RAIN...SNOW...AND GRAUPEL COULD OCCUR (MORE LIKELY THE
LATTER TWO IN THE FAVORED AREA).

DESPITE GOOD MIXING...DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND AT LEAST SOME BREAKS OF
SUN...HIGHS WILL BE LIMITED BY 850 MB TEMPS BELOW -10C. ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS TO GOING FORECAST...WITH 40S IN PIEDMONT/COASTAL AREA...30S
WEST...AND BELOW FREEZING AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WIND GUSTS UP TO 30
MPH WILL ADD A BITE TO THE AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR.
GRADIENT WILL PREVENT WINDS FROM DIMINISHING...BUT THE AIR WILL BE
DRY AND ANOMALOUSLY COLD. ALL LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW
30F...WITH TEENS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND PERHAPS SOME SINGLE
DIGITS ON THE RIDGETOPS. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS.

THE SFC HIGH WILL QUICKLY DRIFT SE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AS THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. SKIES WILL BE
MAINLY SUNNY BUT RETURN FLOW WILL BE MODEST AND TEMPS WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH...NOT NEARLY AS AMPLIFIED OR STRONG AS THE CURRENT
ONE...WILL CLIP ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...SENDING
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. MOISTURE RETURN IS
LIMITED AND H8/H9 FLOW QUICKLY SHIFTS TO WESTERLY EVEN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE OPERATIONAL SUITE OF MODELS IS QUITE DRY EAST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT...BUT ENSEMBLE DATA HINTS AT A BRIEF WINDOW OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT FURTHER EAST. KEPT MENTION IN GENERALLY
ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN
THE COLD POCKETS.

DESPITE FROPA...THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL PROMOTE QUICK WARMING ON
MONDAY...WITH HIGHS SOARING INTO THE 60S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND
PERHAPS CLOSE TO 70 IN THE PIEDMONT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL PASS MAINLY TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY. MOST
LIKELY THE PRECIPITATION STAYS NORTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE BUT I
DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES IN ALMOST THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY AND ROUGHLY NORTH OF US 48/50 ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
RETURN FLOW COMMENCING AND WARM MOIST AIR QUICKLY SPREADING NORTH
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE IS
EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC ON
THURSDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. HIGHS
NEAR 70 ARE LIKELY IN VALLEYS WEST AND SOUTH OF DC.

MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE BEYOND THURSDAY...WITH THE 00Z GFS PUSHING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH ON FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER...AND IN THESE
SCENARIOS I TEND TO FAVOR A SLOWER SOLUTION RATHER THAN BARRELING A
FRONT THROUGH. SO FRIDAY WAS KEPT SEASONABLY WARM WITH RAIN
CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION COULD BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY. THESE COULD CONTAIN A
MIXTURE OF RA/SN AND GRAUPEL. HOWEVER DUE TO ISOLATED/SCATTERED
NATURE...PROBABILITY OF REDUCED CONDITIONS AT A TERMINAL IS LOW. THE
MOST FAVORED LOCATIONS MAY BE BWI/MTN FROM THE MIDDAY INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. CAN/T RULE OUT STRAY FLURRIES AT OTHER TIMES...BUT
LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS. NW WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED GREATER THAN 10 KT.
SPORADIC GUSTS THROUGH DAYBREAK...BECOMING COMMON UP TO 25 KT DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WINDS ONLY GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT.

VFR SUNDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON.

LOW CIGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. ONCE THAT
FRONT PASSES...GUSTY WEST WINDS UP TO 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SHRA ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT SO RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY/LOW CIGS ARE NOT
LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...
OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT GUST OF 20 KT OR GREATER THIS MORNING ON ALL
WATERS AS SECONDARY ARCTIC FRONT SURGES INTO THE AREA. EXPECT THESE
GUST TO BECOME EVEN MORE COMMONPLACE AFTER THE SUN RISES. MIXED
LAYER WINDS REMAIN BELOW 30 KT...SO THAT SHOULD REPRESENT AN UPPER
LIMIT TO GUSTS. SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NORTHERN BAY TOWARD THE MIDDAY HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
IN TONIGHT BUT WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST...ALLOWING SCA CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME ON SUNDAY...BUT LAST VESTIGES OF
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW SCA LEVEL GUSTS TO CONTINUE ON THE MAIN
STEM OF THE BAY THROUGH THE MORNING.

SOUTHERLY CHANNELING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL RAISE THE POTENTIAL
FOR GUSTS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...WINDS TURN OUT OF THE WEST
BUT BECOME STRONGER AND GUSTIER WITH WINDS/GUSTS SOLIDLY ABOVE SCA
LEVELS. CARRYING SOME GUSTS IN THE UPPER BAY OVER 30 KTS...SO WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR GALE POTENTIAL ON MONDAY. WINDS BEGIN TO SETTLE BY
TUESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING MAY APPROACH THE RECORD LOWS FOR THE
DATE. CURRENTLY THE FORECAST LOWS ARE ABOVE THESE RECORDS.
HOWEVER...IF THE LOW DROPS TO 21 OR LESS AT DULLES IT WOULD BE THE
COLDEST SO LATE IN THE SEASON SINCE 1987...AND IF THE LOW DROPS TO
24 OR LESS AT BWI IT WOULD BE THE COLDEST SO LATE IN THE SEASON
SINCE 1985.

SITE...3/29 RECORD MIN T...
DCA......18 (1923).........
BWI......18 (1923).........
IAD......20 (1982).........

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JE
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...ADS/JE
MARINE...ADS/JE
CLIMATE...DFH/JE



000
FXUS61 KLWX 280800
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY. A
SERIES OF WEAK SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
THIS MORNING WITH CONNECTIONS TO GREENLAND. A FRONT WITH DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE IS OFFSHORE...WHILE A SECONDARY ARCTIC FRONT IS PUSHING
INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS...NOTABLE IN THE DEW
POINT GRADIENT OVER THE REGION. SOME LIFT HAS BROUGHT VERY LIGHT
PRECIP TO CENTRAL VA...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT SE. BASED ON
REGIONAL RADAR AND OBS IN WV/PA...THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE AT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL THROUGH DAYBREAK...ALTHOUGH THE
BEST RETURNS HAVE LIKELY ALREADY OCCURRED. AREAS NEAR THE PA BORDER
MAY ALSO SEE A FLURRY.

BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS IN HI-RES GUIDANCE AND PROJECTED FORCING
MECHANISMS...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS THROUGH TODAY.
WHILE ROGUE FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE AT
ANYTIME...MAIN CHANCES WILL TAKE PLACE ONCE CONVECTIVE MIXING
OCCURS. EVEN THEN...THINK A COMPACT VORT MAX WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS
MAY BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN PRODUCING SHOWERS. THIS IS FORECAST TO
SKIRT INTO NORTHERN MD DURING THE MIDDAY/AFTERNOON HOURS. COVERAGE
IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED AT BEST SO HAVE MAINTAINED THE
CHANCE POPS...BUT TAPERED THEM OFF LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. DEPENDING
ON NEAR-SFC TEMPS AND THE INTENSITY OF THE
SHOWERS...RAIN...SNOW...AND GRAUPEL COULD OCCUR (MORE LIKELY THE
LATTER TWO IN THE FAVORED AREA).

DESPITE GOOD MIXING...DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND AT LEAST SOME BREAKS OF
SUN...HIGHS WILL BE LIMITED BY 850 MB TEMPS BELOW -10C. ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS TO GOING FORECAST...WITH 40S IN PIEDMONT/COASTAL AREA...30S
WEST...AND BELOW FREEZING AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WIND GUSTS UP TO 30
MPH WILL ADD A BITE TO THE AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR.
GRADIENT WILL PREVENT WINDS FROM DIMINISHING...BUT THE AIR WILL BE
DRY AND ANOMALOUSLY COLD. ALL LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW
30F...WITH TEENS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND PERHAPS SOME SINGLE
DIGITS ON THE RIDGETOPS. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS.

THE SFC HIGH WILL QUICKLY DRIFT SE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AS THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. SKIES WILL BE
MAINLY SUNNY BUT RETURN FLOW WILL BE MODEST AND TEMPS WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH...NOT NEARLY AS AMPLIFIED OR STRONG AS THE CURRENT
ONE...WILL CLIP ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...SENDING
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. MOISTURE RETURN IS
LIMITED AND H8/H9 FLOW QUICKLY SHIFTS TO WESTERLY EVEN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE OPERATIONAL SUITE OF MODELS IS QUITE DRY EAST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT...BUT ENSEMBLE DATA HINTS AT A BRIEF WINDOW OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT FURTHER EAST. KEPT MENTION IN GENERALLY
ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN
THE COLD POCKETS.

DESPITE FROPA...THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL PROMOTE QUICK WARMING ON
MONDAY...WITH HIGHS SOARING INTO THE 60S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND
PERHAPS CLOSE TO 70 IN THE PIEDMONT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL PASS MAINLY TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY. MOST
LIKELY THE PRECIPITATION STAYS NORTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE BUT I
DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES IN ALMOST THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY AND ROUGHLY NORTH OF US 48/50 ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
RETURN FLOW COMMENCING AND WARM MOIST AIR QUICKLY SPREADING NORTH
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE IS
EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC ON
THURSDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. HIGHS
NEAR 70 ARE LIKELY IN VALLEYS WEST AND SOUTH OF DC.

MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE BEYOND THURSDAY...WITH THE 00Z GFS PUSHING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH ON FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER...AND IN THESE
SCENARIOS I TEND TO FAVOR A SLOWER SOLUTION RATHER THAN BARRELING A
FRONT THROUGH. SO FRIDAY WAS KEPT SEASONABLY WARM WITH RAIN
CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION COULD BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY. THESE COULD CONTAIN A
MIXTURE OF RA/SN AND GRAUPEL. HOWEVER DUE TO ISOLATED/SCATTERED
NATURE...PROBABILITY OF REDUCED CONDITIONS AT A TERMINAL IS LOW. THE
MOST FAVORED LOCATIONS MAY BE BWI/MTN FROM THE MIDDAY INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. CAN/T RULE OUT STRAY FLURRIES AT OTHER TIMES...BUT
LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS. NW WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED GREATER THAN 10 KT.
SPORADIC GUSTS THROUGH DAYBREAK...BECOMING COMMON UP TO 25 KT DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WINDS ONLY GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT.

VFR SUNDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON.

LOW CIGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. ONCE THAT
FRONT PASSES...GUSTY WEST WINDS UP TO 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SHRA ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT SO RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY/LOW CIGS ARE NOT
LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...
OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT GUST OF 20 KT OR GREATER THIS MORNING ON ALL
WATERS AS SECONDARY ARCTIC FRONT SURGES INTO THE AREA. EXPECT THESE
GUST TO BECOME EVEN MORE COMMONPLACE AFTER THE SUN RISES. MIXED
LAYER WINDS REMAIN BELOW 30 KT...SO THAT SHOULD REPRESENT AN UPPER
LIMIT TO GUSTS. SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NORTHERN BAY TOWARD THE MIDDAY HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
IN TONIGHT BUT WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST...ALLOWING SCA CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME ON SUNDAY...BUT LAST VESTIGES OF
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW SCA LEVEL GUSTS TO CONTINUE ON THE MAIN
STEM OF THE BAY THROUGH THE MORNING.

SOUTHERLY CHANNELING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL RAISE THE POTENTIAL
FOR GUSTS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...WINDS TURN OUT OF THE WEST
BUT BECOME STRONGER AND GUSTIER WITH WINDS/GUSTS SOLIDLY ABOVE SCA
LEVELS. CARRYING SOME GUSTS IN THE UPPER BAY OVER 30 KTS...SO WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR GALE POTENTIAL ON MONDAY. WINDS BEGIN TO SETTLE BY
TUESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING MAY APPROACH THE RECORD LOWS FOR THE
DATE. CURRENTLY THE FORECAST LOWS ARE ABOVE THESE RECORDS.
HOWEVER...IF THE LOW DROPS TO 21 OR LESS AT DULLES IT WOULD BE THE
COLDEST SO LATE IN THE SEASON SINCE 1987...AND IF THE LOW DROPS TO
24 OR LESS AT BWI IT WOULD BE THE COLDEST SO LATE IN THE SEASON
SINCE 1985.

SITE...3/29 RECORD MIN T...
DCA......18 (1923).........
BWI......18 (1923).........
IAD......20 (1982).........

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JE
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...ADS/JE
MARINE...ADS/JE
CLIMATE...DFH/JE




000
FXUS61 KLWX 280800
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY. A
SERIES OF WEAK SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
THIS MORNING WITH CONNECTIONS TO GREENLAND. A FRONT WITH DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE IS OFFSHORE...WHILE A SECONDARY ARCTIC FRONT IS PUSHING
INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS...NOTABLE IN THE DEW
POINT GRADIENT OVER THE REGION. SOME LIFT HAS BROUGHT VERY LIGHT
PRECIP TO CENTRAL VA...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT SE. BASED ON
REGIONAL RADAR AND OBS IN WV/PA...THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE AT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL THROUGH DAYBREAK...ALTHOUGH THE
BEST RETURNS HAVE LIKELY ALREADY OCCURRED. AREAS NEAR THE PA BORDER
MAY ALSO SEE A FLURRY.

BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS IN HI-RES GUIDANCE AND PROJECTED FORCING
MECHANISMS...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS THROUGH TODAY.
WHILE ROGUE FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE AT
ANYTIME...MAIN CHANCES WILL TAKE PLACE ONCE CONVECTIVE MIXING
OCCURS. EVEN THEN...THINK A COMPACT VORT MAX WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS
MAY BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN PRODUCING SHOWERS. THIS IS FORECAST TO
SKIRT INTO NORTHERN MD DURING THE MIDDAY/AFTERNOON HOURS. COVERAGE
IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED AT BEST SO HAVE MAINTAINED THE
CHANCE POPS...BUT TAPERED THEM OFF LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. DEPENDING
ON NEAR-SFC TEMPS AND THE INTENSITY OF THE
SHOWERS...RAIN...SNOW...AND GRAUPEL COULD OCCUR (MORE LIKELY THE
LATTER TWO IN THE FAVORED AREA).

DESPITE GOOD MIXING...DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND AT LEAST SOME BREAKS OF
SUN...HIGHS WILL BE LIMITED BY 850 MB TEMPS BELOW -10C. ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS TO GOING FORECAST...WITH 40S IN PIEDMONT/COASTAL AREA...30S
WEST...AND BELOW FREEZING AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WIND GUSTS UP TO 30
MPH WILL ADD A BITE TO THE AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR.
GRADIENT WILL PREVENT WINDS FROM DIMINISHING...BUT THE AIR WILL BE
DRY AND ANOMALOUSLY COLD. ALL LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW
30F...WITH TEENS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND PERHAPS SOME SINGLE
DIGITS ON THE RIDGETOPS. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS.

THE SFC HIGH WILL QUICKLY DRIFT SE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AS THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. SKIES WILL BE
MAINLY SUNNY BUT RETURN FLOW WILL BE MODEST AND TEMPS WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH...NOT NEARLY AS AMPLIFIED OR STRONG AS THE CURRENT
ONE...WILL CLIP ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...SENDING
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. MOISTURE RETURN IS
LIMITED AND H8/H9 FLOW QUICKLY SHIFTS TO WESTERLY EVEN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE OPERATIONAL SUITE OF MODELS IS QUITE DRY EAST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT...BUT ENSEMBLE DATA HINTS AT A BRIEF WINDOW OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT FURTHER EAST. KEPT MENTION IN GENERALLY
ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN
THE COLD POCKETS.

DESPITE FROPA...THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL PROMOTE QUICK WARMING ON
MONDAY...WITH HIGHS SOARING INTO THE 60S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND
PERHAPS CLOSE TO 70 IN THE PIEDMONT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL PASS MAINLY TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY. MOST
LIKELY THE PRECIPITATION STAYS NORTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE BUT I
DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES IN ALMOST THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY AND ROUGHLY NORTH OF US 48/50 ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
RETURN FLOW COMMENCING AND WARM MOIST AIR QUICKLY SPREADING NORTH
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE IS
EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC ON
THURSDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. HIGHS
NEAR 70 ARE LIKELY IN VALLEYS WEST AND SOUTH OF DC.

MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE BEYOND THURSDAY...WITH THE 00Z GFS PUSHING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH ON FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER...AND IN THESE
SCENARIOS I TEND TO FAVOR A SLOWER SOLUTION RATHER THAN BARRELING A
FRONT THROUGH. SO FRIDAY WAS KEPT SEASONABLY WARM WITH RAIN
CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION COULD BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY. THESE COULD CONTAIN A
MIXTURE OF RA/SN AND GRAUPEL. HOWEVER DUE TO ISOLATED/SCATTERED
NATURE...PROBABILITY OF REDUCED CONDITIONS AT A TERMINAL IS LOW. THE
MOST FAVORED LOCATIONS MAY BE BWI/MTN FROM THE MIDDAY INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. CAN/T RULE OUT STRAY FLURRIES AT OTHER TIMES...BUT
LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS. NW WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED GREATER THAN 10 KT.
SPORADIC GUSTS THROUGH DAYBREAK...BECOMING COMMON UP TO 25 KT DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WINDS ONLY GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT.

VFR SUNDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON.

LOW CIGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. ONCE THAT
FRONT PASSES...GUSTY WEST WINDS UP TO 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SHRA ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT SO RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY/LOW CIGS ARE NOT
LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...
OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT GUST OF 20 KT OR GREATER THIS MORNING ON ALL
WATERS AS SECONDARY ARCTIC FRONT SURGES INTO THE AREA. EXPECT THESE
GUST TO BECOME EVEN MORE COMMONPLACE AFTER THE SUN RISES. MIXED
LAYER WINDS REMAIN BELOW 30 KT...SO THAT SHOULD REPRESENT AN UPPER
LIMIT TO GUSTS. SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NORTHERN BAY TOWARD THE MIDDAY HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
IN TONIGHT BUT WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST...ALLOWING SCA CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME ON SUNDAY...BUT LAST VESTIGES OF
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW SCA LEVEL GUSTS TO CONTINUE ON THE MAIN
STEM OF THE BAY THROUGH THE MORNING.

SOUTHERLY CHANNELING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL RAISE THE POTENTIAL
FOR GUSTS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...WINDS TURN OUT OF THE WEST
BUT BECOME STRONGER AND GUSTIER WITH WINDS/GUSTS SOLIDLY ABOVE SCA
LEVELS. CARRYING SOME GUSTS IN THE UPPER BAY OVER 30 KTS...SO WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR GALE POTENTIAL ON MONDAY. WINDS BEGIN TO SETTLE BY
TUESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING MAY APPROACH THE RECORD LOWS FOR THE
DATE. CURRENTLY THE FORECAST LOWS ARE ABOVE THESE RECORDS.
HOWEVER...IF THE LOW DROPS TO 21 OR LESS AT DULLES IT WOULD BE THE
COLDEST SO LATE IN THE SEASON SINCE 1987...AND IF THE LOW DROPS TO
24 OR LESS AT BWI IT WOULD BE THE COLDEST SO LATE IN THE SEASON
SINCE 1985.

SITE...3/29 RECORD MIN T...
DCA......18 (1923).........
BWI......18 (1923).........
IAD......20 (1982).........

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JE
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...ADS/JE
MARINE...ADS/JE
CLIMATE...DFH/JE




000
FXUS61 KLWX 280800
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY. A
SERIES OF WEAK SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
THIS MORNING WITH CONNECTIONS TO GREENLAND. A FRONT WITH DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE IS OFFSHORE...WHILE A SECONDARY ARCTIC FRONT IS PUSHING
INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS...NOTABLE IN THE DEW
POINT GRADIENT OVER THE REGION. SOME LIFT HAS BROUGHT VERY LIGHT
PRECIP TO CENTRAL VA...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT SE. BASED ON
REGIONAL RADAR AND OBS IN WV/PA...THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE AT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL THROUGH DAYBREAK...ALTHOUGH THE
BEST RETURNS HAVE LIKELY ALREADY OCCURRED. AREAS NEAR THE PA BORDER
MAY ALSO SEE A FLURRY.

BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS IN HI-RES GUIDANCE AND PROJECTED FORCING
MECHANISMS...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS THROUGH TODAY.
WHILE ROGUE FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE AT
ANYTIME...MAIN CHANCES WILL TAKE PLACE ONCE CONVECTIVE MIXING
OCCURS. EVEN THEN...THINK A COMPACT VORT MAX WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS
MAY BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN PRODUCING SHOWERS. THIS IS FORECAST TO
SKIRT INTO NORTHERN MD DURING THE MIDDAY/AFTERNOON HOURS. COVERAGE
IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED AT BEST SO HAVE MAINTAINED THE
CHANCE POPS...BUT TAPERED THEM OFF LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. DEPENDING
ON NEAR-SFC TEMPS AND THE INTENSITY OF THE
SHOWERS...RAIN...SNOW...AND GRAUPEL COULD OCCUR (MORE LIKELY THE
LATTER TWO IN THE FAVORED AREA).

DESPITE GOOD MIXING...DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND AT LEAST SOME BREAKS OF
SUN...HIGHS WILL BE LIMITED BY 850 MB TEMPS BELOW -10C. ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS TO GOING FORECAST...WITH 40S IN PIEDMONT/COASTAL AREA...30S
WEST...AND BELOW FREEZING AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WIND GUSTS UP TO 30
MPH WILL ADD A BITE TO THE AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR.
GRADIENT WILL PREVENT WINDS FROM DIMINISHING...BUT THE AIR WILL BE
DRY AND ANOMALOUSLY COLD. ALL LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW
30F...WITH TEENS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND PERHAPS SOME SINGLE
DIGITS ON THE RIDGETOPS. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS.

THE SFC HIGH WILL QUICKLY DRIFT SE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AS THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. SKIES WILL BE
MAINLY SUNNY BUT RETURN FLOW WILL BE MODEST AND TEMPS WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH...NOT NEARLY AS AMPLIFIED OR STRONG AS THE CURRENT
ONE...WILL CLIP ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...SENDING
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. MOISTURE RETURN IS
LIMITED AND H8/H9 FLOW QUICKLY SHIFTS TO WESTERLY EVEN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE OPERATIONAL SUITE OF MODELS IS QUITE DRY EAST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT...BUT ENSEMBLE DATA HINTS AT A BRIEF WINDOW OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT FURTHER EAST. KEPT MENTION IN GENERALLY
ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN
THE COLD POCKETS.

DESPITE FROPA...THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL PROMOTE QUICK WARMING ON
MONDAY...WITH HIGHS SOARING INTO THE 60S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND
PERHAPS CLOSE TO 70 IN THE PIEDMONT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL PASS MAINLY TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY. MOST
LIKELY THE PRECIPITATION STAYS NORTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE BUT I
DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES IN ALMOST THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY AND ROUGHLY NORTH OF US 48/50 ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
RETURN FLOW COMMENCING AND WARM MOIST AIR QUICKLY SPREADING NORTH
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE IS
EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC ON
THURSDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. HIGHS
NEAR 70 ARE LIKELY IN VALLEYS WEST AND SOUTH OF DC.

MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE BEYOND THURSDAY...WITH THE 00Z GFS PUSHING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH ON FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER...AND IN THESE
SCENARIOS I TEND TO FAVOR A SLOWER SOLUTION RATHER THAN BARRELING A
FRONT THROUGH. SO FRIDAY WAS KEPT SEASONABLY WARM WITH RAIN
CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION COULD BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY. THESE COULD CONTAIN A
MIXTURE OF RA/SN AND GRAUPEL. HOWEVER DUE TO ISOLATED/SCATTERED
NATURE...PROBABILITY OF REDUCED CONDITIONS AT A TERMINAL IS LOW. THE
MOST FAVORED LOCATIONS MAY BE BWI/MTN FROM THE MIDDAY INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. CAN/T RULE OUT STRAY FLURRIES AT OTHER TIMES...BUT
LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS. NW WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED GREATER THAN 10 KT.
SPORADIC GUSTS THROUGH DAYBREAK...BECOMING COMMON UP TO 25 KT DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WINDS ONLY GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT.

VFR SUNDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON.

LOW CIGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. ONCE THAT
FRONT PASSES...GUSTY WEST WINDS UP TO 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SHRA ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT SO RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY/LOW CIGS ARE NOT
LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...
OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT GUST OF 20 KT OR GREATER THIS MORNING ON ALL
WATERS AS SECONDARY ARCTIC FRONT SURGES INTO THE AREA. EXPECT THESE
GUST TO BECOME EVEN MORE COMMONPLACE AFTER THE SUN RISES. MIXED
LAYER WINDS REMAIN BELOW 30 KT...SO THAT SHOULD REPRESENT AN UPPER
LIMIT TO GUSTS. SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NORTHERN BAY TOWARD THE MIDDAY HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
IN TONIGHT BUT WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST...ALLOWING SCA CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME ON SUNDAY...BUT LAST VESTIGES OF
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW SCA LEVEL GUSTS TO CONTINUE ON THE MAIN
STEM OF THE BAY THROUGH THE MORNING.

SOUTHERLY CHANNELING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL RAISE THE POTENTIAL
FOR GUSTS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...WINDS TURN OUT OF THE WEST
BUT BECOME STRONGER AND GUSTIER WITH WINDS/GUSTS SOLIDLY ABOVE SCA
LEVELS. CARRYING SOME GUSTS IN THE UPPER BAY OVER 30 KTS...SO WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR GALE POTENTIAL ON MONDAY. WINDS BEGIN TO SETTLE BY
TUESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING MAY APPROACH THE RECORD LOWS FOR THE
DATE. CURRENTLY THE FORECAST LOWS ARE ABOVE THESE RECORDS.
HOWEVER...IF THE LOW DROPS TO 21 OR LESS AT DULLES IT WOULD BE THE
COLDEST SO LATE IN THE SEASON SINCE 1987...AND IF THE LOW DROPS TO
24 OR LESS AT BWI IT WOULD BE THE COLDEST SO LATE IN THE SEASON
SINCE 1985.

SITE...3/29 RECORD MIN T...
DCA......18 (1923).........
BWI......18 (1923).........
IAD......20 (1982).........

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JE
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...ADS/JE
MARINE...ADS/JE
CLIMATE...DFH/JE



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280534
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
134 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
PCPN SLOWLY MOVG OFFSHORE LATE THIS EVEN AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
MOVES EAST. THUS...CHC POPS (RAIN) CONTS LATE THIS EVENING AND
ERLY MORNING WITH HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE COAST.

PCPN FROM APPRCHG TROF SPREADING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT CNTYS LATE
THIS EVE. PCPN STILL LIQUID IN FORM AS TMPS/DP TMPS REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING. HOWEVER...COLDER AIR OVERSPREADS THE FA AFTR MIDNIGHT
ALLOWING THE RAIN TO BECOME MIXED WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW SHWRS
OR FLRYS. COULD ALSO SEE SOME SLEET MIXED IN DURING THE CHANGEOVER
BUT LIMITED GRIDS TO ONLY 2 P-TYPES FOR NOW. THE CHANGEOVER OCCURS
OVR THE PIEDMONT FIRST THEN TOWARDS THE CHES BAY AND COASTAL AREAS
AFTR 09Z. ANY QFP AFTR MIDNIGHT WILL BE LIGHT SO NO IMPACT ISSUES
ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT. LOWS NR 30F NW TO THE M/U30S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPR TROUGH MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON SAT...THEN OFFSHORE BY
SUN MRNG. HIGHS ON SAT ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE M/U40S.
IF THERE ARE ANY LINGERING SHWRS IN THE MORNING...THERE COULD
STILL BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. AFTN INSTABILITY W/ THE TROUGH
OVERHEAD WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD CUMULUS WHICH MAY RESULT
IN ISOLATED SHWRS THAT SHOULD STAY CONFINED ALONG THE COAST. ALL
SHWRS FINALLY COME TO AN END EARLY SAT EVE...THE SKY CLRS...AND
TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE 20S BY SUN MRNG.

SFC HIGH PRES MOVES ACRS THE RGN ON SUN. XPCG SUNNY/DRY/COOL WX
W/ LGT WINDS. LIMITED MIXING WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK WITH
READINGS ONLY RISING INTO THE M/U40S ALONG THE CST TO THE L/M50S
ACRS INTERIOR VA AND NE NC.

NEXT TROUGH ALOFT AND ACCOMPANYING SFC CDFNT TO CROSS THE RGN LT
SUN NGT/MON MRNG...W/ VRB CLDS AND LO PROB FOR PCPN (15-30%).
XPCG MORE OF A DP LYRD WSW LO LVL FLO ON MON LEADING TO BETTER
WARMING. SKY AVGG OUT PSNY ON MON...W/ HI TEMPS FM THE L/M60S
E...TO THE L70S W.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN PREVAILS THRU THE EXTENDED...AS NRN STREAM
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACTIVE. THE FIRST NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE EXITS THE
COAST LATE MON NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE REACHING THE OH VALLEY
LATE TUES. ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND TUES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TRACK
OF THE NRN STREAM LOW...WITH THE 27/12Z GFS LIFTING IT THRU NE...THE
27/12Z ECMWF THRU THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND THE 27/12Z CMC
THRU NC. BASED ON THE OVERALL PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW...PREFER THE NRN TRACK...KEEPING THE FA DRY. ASSOCIATED WEAK
COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION TUES NIGHT-WEDS. LIMITED
MOISTURE AND LITTLE APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL RESULT IN A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE. UPPER/SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ERN CONUS WEDS.
THEREAFTER...MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE HANDLING OF A SRN STREAM SYSTEM
LIFTING FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE GULF STATES WEDS-WEDS NIGHT.
GFS QUICKER TO RETURN MOISTURE TO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATES OFF THE SE COAST WEDS-WEDS NIGHT...WHILE ITS ECMWF AND CMC
COUNTERPARTS ARE SLOWER WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN. THEREAFTER...THE
NEXT NRN STREAM SYSTEM PROGGED TO REACH THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY
LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT SPATIAL AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST...WITH THE GFS PUSHING THE FRONT THRU 18
HRS BEFORE THE ECMWF (FRI VS. SAT MORNING). WILL MAINTAIN LOW END
CHANCE POPS BEGINNING THURS. WILL CARRY LOW END CHANCE POPS THROUGH
FRI...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM.

TEMPS TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED WILL BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONABLE
NORMS...IN THE 60S INLAND AND UPPER 50S-LOW 60S ERN SHORE AND
COASTAL AREAS. THURS HIGHS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON POTENTIAL CLOUD
COVER/PRECIP. HAVE OPTED FOR A BLEND...RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 INLAND AND LOW-MID 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL
AREAS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AND OUT
TO SEA OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MAINLY VFR WITH SOME MVFR
POSSIBLE AT SBY/ECG. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING. SCATTERED
-SHRA/-SHSN WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS
STRENGTHEN LATER THIS MORNING AS THE LOW OFF THE COAST INTENSIFIES
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SHOULD
PROMOTE GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT HAS LOCATED OFF THE SE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE SC COAST.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
CURRENT OBS OVER THE WATER INDICATE NLY WINDS AVG 15-20 KT WITH
WAVES 2-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. SFC LOW LIFTS NEWD TONIGHT TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER SURGE TONIGHT. STRONGEST CAA ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
NW WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT OVER THE WATER.
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS SEWD THRU SAT NIGHT-SUN
MORNING...RESULTING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CAA. SCA CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THRU SUN MORNING UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY
BUILDS OVER THE WATER. WAVES GENERALLY 3-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. NW
WINDS SUBSIDE TO 10-15 KT SUN AFTERNOON WITH SEAS DROPPING BELOW 5
FT. EXTENDED SCA HEADLINES THRU SUN MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY
PASSES OVER THE REGION SUN...AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT. FLOW
SHIFTS TO THE SSW. THE NEXT (WEAK) COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W
LATE SUN. SW FLOW INCREASES LATE SUN NIGHT...WITH MODELS INDICATING
SCA CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BASED ON WAA AND COLD WATER...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE SCA CONDITIONS. VERY LITTLE CAA IN WAKE OF THE FRONT LATE
SUN NIGHT-MON MORNING...SO SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED
ATTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS/DAP/LSA
MARINE...AJZ/SAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280534
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
134 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
PCPN SLOWLY MOVG OFFSHORE LATE THIS EVEN AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
MOVES EAST. THUS...CHC POPS (RAIN) CONTS LATE THIS EVENING AND
ERLY MORNING WITH HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE COAST.

PCPN FROM APPRCHG TROF SPREADING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT CNTYS LATE
THIS EVE. PCPN STILL LIQUID IN FORM AS TMPS/DP TMPS REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING. HOWEVER...COLDER AIR OVERSPREADS THE FA AFTR MIDNIGHT
ALLOWING THE RAIN TO BECOME MIXED WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW SHWRS
OR FLRYS. COULD ALSO SEE SOME SLEET MIXED IN DURING THE CHANGEOVER
BUT LIMITED GRIDS TO ONLY 2 P-TYPES FOR NOW. THE CHANGEOVER OCCURS
OVR THE PIEDMONT FIRST THEN TOWARDS THE CHES BAY AND COASTAL AREAS
AFTR 09Z. ANY QFP AFTR MIDNIGHT WILL BE LIGHT SO NO IMPACT ISSUES
ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT. LOWS NR 30F NW TO THE M/U30S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPR TROUGH MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON SAT...THEN OFFSHORE BY
SUN MRNG. HIGHS ON SAT ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE M/U40S.
IF THERE ARE ANY LINGERING SHWRS IN THE MORNING...THERE COULD
STILL BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. AFTN INSTABILITY W/ THE TROUGH
OVERHEAD WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD CUMULUS WHICH MAY RESULT
IN ISOLATED SHWRS THAT SHOULD STAY CONFINED ALONG THE COAST. ALL
SHWRS FINALLY COME TO AN END EARLY SAT EVE...THE SKY CLRS...AND
TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE 20S BY SUN MRNG.

SFC HIGH PRES MOVES ACRS THE RGN ON SUN. XPCG SUNNY/DRY/COOL WX
W/ LGT WINDS. LIMITED MIXING WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK WITH
READINGS ONLY RISING INTO THE M/U40S ALONG THE CST TO THE L/M50S
ACRS INTERIOR VA AND NE NC.

NEXT TROUGH ALOFT AND ACCOMPANYING SFC CDFNT TO CROSS THE RGN LT
SUN NGT/MON MRNG...W/ VRB CLDS AND LO PROB FOR PCPN (15-30%).
XPCG MORE OF A DP LYRD WSW LO LVL FLO ON MON LEADING TO BETTER
WARMING. SKY AVGG OUT PSNY ON MON...W/ HI TEMPS FM THE L/M60S
E...TO THE L70S W.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN PREVAILS THRU THE EXTENDED...AS NRN STREAM
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACTIVE. THE FIRST NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE EXITS THE
COAST LATE MON NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE REACHING THE OH VALLEY
LATE TUES. ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND TUES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TRACK
OF THE NRN STREAM LOW...WITH THE 27/12Z GFS LIFTING IT THRU NE...THE
27/12Z ECMWF THRU THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND THE 27/12Z CMC
THRU NC. BASED ON THE OVERALL PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW...PREFER THE NRN TRACK...KEEPING THE FA DRY. ASSOCIATED WEAK
COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION TUES NIGHT-WEDS. LIMITED
MOISTURE AND LITTLE APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL RESULT IN A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE. UPPER/SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ERN CONUS WEDS.
THEREAFTER...MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE HANDLING OF A SRN STREAM SYSTEM
LIFTING FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE GULF STATES WEDS-WEDS NIGHT.
GFS QUICKER TO RETURN MOISTURE TO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATES OFF THE SE COAST WEDS-WEDS NIGHT...WHILE ITS ECMWF AND CMC
COUNTERPARTS ARE SLOWER WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN. THEREAFTER...THE
NEXT NRN STREAM SYSTEM PROGGED TO REACH THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY
LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT SPATIAL AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST...WITH THE GFS PUSHING THE FRONT THRU 18
HRS BEFORE THE ECMWF (FRI VS. SAT MORNING). WILL MAINTAIN LOW END
CHANCE POPS BEGINNING THURS. WILL CARRY LOW END CHANCE POPS THROUGH
FRI...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM.

TEMPS TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED WILL BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONABLE
NORMS...IN THE 60S INLAND AND UPPER 50S-LOW 60S ERN SHORE AND
COASTAL AREAS. THURS HIGHS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON POTENTIAL CLOUD
COVER/PRECIP. HAVE OPTED FOR A BLEND...RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 INLAND AND LOW-MID 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL
AREAS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AND OUT
TO SEA OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MAINLY VFR WITH SOME MVFR
POSSIBLE AT SBY/ECG. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING. SCATTERED
-SHRA/-SHSN WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS
STRENGTHEN LATER THIS MORNING AS THE LOW OFF THE COAST INTENSIFIES
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SHOULD
PROMOTE GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT HAS LOCATED OFF THE SE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE SC COAST.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
CURRENT OBS OVER THE WATER INDICATE NLY WINDS AVG 15-20 KT WITH
WAVES 2-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. SFC LOW LIFTS NEWD TONIGHT TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER SURGE TONIGHT. STRONGEST CAA ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
NW WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT OVER THE WATER.
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS SEWD THRU SAT NIGHT-SUN
MORNING...RESULTING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CAA. SCA CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THRU SUN MORNING UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY
BUILDS OVER THE WATER. WAVES GENERALLY 3-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. NW
WINDS SUBSIDE TO 10-15 KT SUN AFTERNOON WITH SEAS DROPPING BELOW 5
FT. EXTENDED SCA HEADLINES THRU SUN MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY
PASSES OVER THE REGION SUN...AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT. FLOW
SHIFTS TO THE SSW. THE NEXT (WEAK) COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W
LATE SUN. SW FLOW INCREASES LATE SUN NIGHT...WITH MODELS INDICATING
SCA CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BASED ON WAA AND COLD WATER...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE SCA CONDITIONS. VERY LITTLE CAA IN WAKE OF THE FRONT LATE
SUN NIGHT-MON MORNING...SO SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED
ATTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS/DAP/LSA
MARINE...AJZ/SAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280534
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
134 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
PCPN SLOWLY MOVG OFFSHORE LATE THIS EVEN AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
MOVES EAST. THUS...CHC POPS (RAIN) CONTS LATE THIS EVENING AND
ERLY MORNING WITH HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE COAST.

PCPN FROM APPRCHG TROF SPREADING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT CNTYS LATE
THIS EVE. PCPN STILL LIQUID IN FORM AS TMPS/DP TMPS REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING. HOWEVER...COLDER AIR OVERSPREADS THE FA AFTR MIDNIGHT
ALLOWING THE RAIN TO BECOME MIXED WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW SHWRS
OR FLRYS. COULD ALSO SEE SOME SLEET MIXED IN DURING THE CHANGEOVER
BUT LIMITED GRIDS TO ONLY 2 P-TYPES FOR NOW. THE CHANGEOVER OCCURS
OVR THE PIEDMONT FIRST THEN TOWARDS THE CHES BAY AND COASTAL AREAS
AFTR 09Z. ANY QFP AFTR MIDNIGHT WILL BE LIGHT SO NO IMPACT ISSUES
ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT. LOWS NR 30F NW TO THE M/U30S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPR TROUGH MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON SAT...THEN OFFSHORE BY
SUN MRNG. HIGHS ON SAT ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE M/U40S.
IF THERE ARE ANY LINGERING SHWRS IN THE MORNING...THERE COULD
STILL BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. AFTN INSTABILITY W/ THE TROUGH
OVERHEAD WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD CUMULUS WHICH MAY RESULT
IN ISOLATED SHWRS THAT SHOULD STAY CONFINED ALONG THE COAST. ALL
SHWRS FINALLY COME TO AN END EARLY SAT EVE...THE SKY CLRS...AND
TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE 20S BY SUN MRNG.

SFC HIGH PRES MOVES ACRS THE RGN ON SUN. XPCG SUNNY/DRY/COOL WX
W/ LGT WINDS. LIMITED MIXING WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK WITH
READINGS ONLY RISING INTO THE M/U40S ALONG THE CST TO THE L/M50S
ACRS INTERIOR VA AND NE NC.

NEXT TROUGH ALOFT AND ACCOMPANYING SFC CDFNT TO CROSS THE RGN LT
SUN NGT/MON MRNG...W/ VRB CLDS AND LO PROB FOR PCPN (15-30%).
XPCG MORE OF A DP LYRD WSW LO LVL FLO ON MON LEADING TO BETTER
WARMING. SKY AVGG OUT PSNY ON MON...W/ HI TEMPS FM THE L/M60S
E...TO THE L70S W.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN PREVAILS THRU THE EXTENDED...AS NRN STREAM
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACTIVE. THE FIRST NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE EXITS THE
COAST LATE MON NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE REACHING THE OH VALLEY
LATE TUES. ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND TUES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TRACK
OF THE NRN STREAM LOW...WITH THE 27/12Z GFS LIFTING IT THRU NE...THE
27/12Z ECMWF THRU THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND THE 27/12Z CMC
THRU NC. BASED ON THE OVERALL PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW...PREFER THE NRN TRACK...KEEPING THE FA DRY. ASSOCIATED WEAK
COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION TUES NIGHT-WEDS. LIMITED
MOISTURE AND LITTLE APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL RESULT IN A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE. UPPER/SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ERN CONUS WEDS.
THEREAFTER...MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE HANDLING OF A SRN STREAM SYSTEM
LIFTING FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE GULF STATES WEDS-WEDS NIGHT.
GFS QUICKER TO RETURN MOISTURE TO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATES OFF THE SE COAST WEDS-WEDS NIGHT...WHILE ITS ECMWF AND CMC
COUNTERPARTS ARE SLOWER WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN. THEREAFTER...THE
NEXT NRN STREAM SYSTEM PROGGED TO REACH THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY
LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT SPATIAL AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST...WITH THE GFS PUSHING THE FRONT THRU 18
HRS BEFORE THE ECMWF (FRI VS. SAT MORNING). WILL MAINTAIN LOW END
CHANCE POPS BEGINNING THURS. WILL CARRY LOW END CHANCE POPS THROUGH
FRI...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM.

TEMPS TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED WILL BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONABLE
NORMS...IN THE 60S INLAND AND UPPER 50S-LOW 60S ERN SHORE AND
COASTAL AREAS. THURS HIGHS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON POTENTIAL CLOUD
COVER/PRECIP. HAVE OPTED FOR A BLEND...RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 INLAND AND LOW-MID 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL
AREAS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AND OUT
TO SEA OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MAINLY VFR WITH SOME MVFR
POSSIBLE AT SBY/ECG. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING. SCATTERED
-SHRA/-SHSN WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS
STRENGTHEN LATER THIS MORNING AS THE LOW OFF THE COAST INTENSIFIES
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SHOULD
PROMOTE GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT HAS LOCATED OFF THE SE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE SC COAST.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
CURRENT OBS OVER THE WATER INDICATE NLY WINDS AVG 15-20 KT WITH
WAVES 2-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. SFC LOW LIFTS NEWD TONIGHT TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER SURGE TONIGHT. STRONGEST CAA ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
NW WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT OVER THE WATER.
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS SEWD THRU SAT NIGHT-SUN
MORNING...RESULTING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CAA. SCA CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THRU SUN MORNING UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY
BUILDS OVER THE WATER. WAVES GENERALLY 3-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. NW
WINDS SUBSIDE TO 10-15 KT SUN AFTERNOON WITH SEAS DROPPING BELOW 5
FT. EXTENDED SCA HEADLINES THRU SUN MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY
PASSES OVER THE REGION SUN...AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT. FLOW
SHIFTS TO THE SSW. THE NEXT (WEAK) COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W
LATE SUN. SW FLOW INCREASES LATE SUN NIGHT...WITH MODELS INDICATING
SCA CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BASED ON WAA AND COLD WATER...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE SCA CONDITIONS. VERY LITTLE CAA IN WAKE OF THE FRONT LATE
SUN NIGHT-MON MORNING...SO SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED
ATTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS/DAP/LSA
MARINE...AJZ/SAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280534
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
134 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
PCPN SLOWLY MOVG OFFSHORE LATE THIS EVEN AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
MOVES EAST. THUS...CHC POPS (RAIN) CONTS LATE THIS EVENING AND
ERLY MORNING WITH HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE COAST.

PCPN FROM APPRCHG TROF SPREADING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT CNTYS LATE
THIS EVE. PCPN STILL LIQUID IN FORM AS TMPS/DP TMPS REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING. HOWEVER...COLDER AIR OVERSPREADS THE FA AFTR MIDNIGHT
ALLOWING THE RAIN TO BECOME MIXED WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW SHWRS
OR FLRYS. COULD ALSO SEE SOME SLEET MIXED IN DURING THE CHANGEOVER
BUT LIMITED GRIDS TO ONLY 2 P-TYPES FOR NOW. THE CHANGEOVER OCCURS
OVR THE PIEDMONT FIRST THEN TOWARDS THE CHES BAY AND COASTAL AREAS
AFTR 09Z. ANY QFP AFTR MIDNIGHT WILL BE LIGHT SO NO IMPACT ISSUES
ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT. LOWS NR 30F NW TO THE M/U30S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPR TROUGH MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON SAT...THEN OFFSHORE BY
SUN MRNG. HIGHS ON SAT ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE M/U40S.
IF THERE ARE ANY LINGERING SHWRS IN THE MORNING...THERE COULD
STILL BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. AFTN INSTABILITY W/ THE TROUGH
OVERHEAD WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD CUMULUS WHICH MAY RESULT
IN ISOLATED SHWRS THAT SHOULD STAY CONFINED ALONG THE COAST. ALL
SHWRS FINALLY COME TO AN END EARLY SAT EVE...THE SKY CLRS...AND
TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE 20S BY SUN MRNG.

SFC HIGH PRES MOVES ACRS THE RGN ON SUN. XPCG SUNNY/DRY/COOL WX
W/ LGT WINDS. LIMITED MIXING WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK WITH
READINGS ONLY RISING INTO THE M/U40S ALONG THE CST TO THE L/M50S
ACRS INTERIOR VA AND NE NC.

NEXT TROUGH ALOFT AND ACCOMPANYING SFC CDFNT TO CROSS THE RGN LT
SUN NGT/MON MRNG...W/ VRB CLDS AND LO PROB FOR PCPN (15-30%).
XPCG MORE OF A DP LYRD WSW LO LVL FLO ON MON LEADING TO BETTER
WARMING. SKY AVGG OUT PSNY ON MON...W/ HI TEMPS FM THE L/M60S
E...TO THE L70S W.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN PREVAILS THRU THE EXTENDED...AS NRN STREAM
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACTIVE. THE FIRST NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE EXITS THE
COAST LATE MON NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE REACHING THE OH VALLEY
LATE TUES. ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND TUES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TRACK
OF THE NRN STREAM LOW...WITH THE 27/12Z GFS LIFTING IT THRU NE...THE
27/12Z ECMWF THRU THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND THE 27/12Z CMC
THRU NC. BASED ON THE OVERALL PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW...PREFER THE NRN TRACK...KEEPING THE FA DRY. ASSOCIATED WEAK
COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION TUES NIGHT-WEDS. LIMITED
MOISTURE AND LITTLE APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL RESULT IN A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE. UPPER/SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ERN CONUS WEDS.
THEREAFTER...MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE HANDLING OF A SRN STREAM SYSTEM
LIFTING FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE GULF STATES WEDS-WEDS NIGHT.
GFS QUICKER TO RETURN MOISTURE TO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATES OFF THE SE COAST WEDS-WEDS NIGHT...WHILE ITS ECMWF AND CMC
COUNTERPARTS ARE SLOWER WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN. THEREAFTER...THE
NEXT NRN STREAM SYSTEM PROGGED TO REACH THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY
LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT SPATIAL AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST...WITH THE GFS PUSHING THE FRONT THRU 18
HRS BEFORE THE ECMWF (FRI VS. SAT MORNING). WILL MAINTAIN LOW END
CHANCE POPS BEGINNING THURS. WILL CARRY LOW END CHANCE POPS THROUGH
FRI...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM.

TEMPS TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED WILL BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONABLE
NORMS...IN THE 60S INLAND AND UPPER 50S-LOW 60S ERN SHORE AND
COASTAL AREAS. THURS HIGHS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON POTENTIAL CLOUD
COVER/PRECIP. HAVE OPTED FOR A BLEND...RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 INLAND AND LOW-MID 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL
AREAS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AND OUT
TO SEA OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MAINLY VFR WITH SOME MVFR
POSSIBLE AT SBY/ECG. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING. SCATTERED
-SHRA/-SHSN WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS
STRENGTHEN LATER THIS MORNING AS THE LOW OFF THE COAST INTENSIFIES
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SHOULD
PROMOTE GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT HAS LOCATED OFF THE SE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE SC COAST.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
CURRENT OBS OVER THE WATER INDICATE NLY WINDS AVG 15-20 KT WITH
WAVES 2-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. SFC LOW LIFTS NEWD TONIGHT TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER SURGE TONIGHT. STRONGEST CAA ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
NW WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT OVER THE WATER.
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS SEWD THRU SAT NIGHT-SUN
MORNING...RESULTING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CAA. SCA CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THRU SUN MORNING UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY
BUILDS OVER THE WATER. WAVES GENERALLY 3-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. NW
WINDS SUBSIDE TO 10-15 KT SUN AFTERNOON WITH SEAS DROPPING BELOW 5
FT. EXTENDED SCA HEADLINES THRU SUN MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY
PASSES OVER THE REGION SUN...AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT. FLOW
SHIFTS TO THE SSW. THE NEXT (WEAK) COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W
LATE SUN. SW FLOW INCREASES LATE SUN NIGHT...WITH MODELS INDICATING
SCA CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BASED ON WAA AND COLD WATER...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE SCA CONDITIONS. VERY LITTLE CAA IN WAKE OF THE FRONT LATE
SUN NIGHT-MON MORNING...SO SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED
ATTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS/DAP/LSA
MARINE...AJZ/SAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280534
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
134 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
PCPN SLOWLY MOVG OFFSHORE LATE THIS EVEN AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
MOVES EAST. THUS...CHC POPS (RAIN) CONTS LATE THIS EVENING AND
ERLY MORNING WITH HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE COAST.

PCPN FROM APPRCHG TROF SPREADING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT CNTYS LATE
THIS EVE. PCPN STILL LIQUID IN FORM AS TMPS/DP TMPS REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING. HOWEVER...COLDER AIR OVERSPREADS THE FA AFTR MIDNIGHT
ALLOWING THE RAIN TO BECOME MIXED WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW SHWRS
OR FLRYS. COULD ALSO SEE SOME SLEET MIXED IN DURING THE CHANGEOVER
BUT LIMITED GRIDS TO ONLY 2 P-TYPES FOR NOW. THE CHANGEOVER OCCURS
OVR THE PIEDMONT FIRST THEN TOWARDS THE CHES BAY AND COASTAL AREAS
AFTR 09Z. ANY QFP AFTR MIDNIGHT WILL BE LIGHT SO NO IMPACT ISSUES
ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT. LOWS NR 30F NW TO THE M/U30S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPR TROUGH MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON SAT...THEN OFFSHORE BY
SUN MRNG. HIGHS ON SAT ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE M/U40S.
IF THERE ARE ANY LINGERING SHWRS IN THE MORNING...THERE COULD
STILL BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. AFTN INSTABILITY W/ THE TROUGH
OVERHEAD WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD CUMULUS WHICH MAY RESULT
IN ISOLATED SHWRS THAT SHOULD STAY CONFINED ALONG THE COAST. ALL
SHWRS FINALLY COME TO AN END EARLY SAT EVE...THE SKY CLRS...AND
TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE 20S BY SUN MRNG.

SFC HIGH PRES MOVES ACRS THE RGN ON SUN. XPCG SUNNY/DRY/COOL WX
W/ LGT WINDS. LIMITED MIXING WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK WITH
READINGS ONLY RISING INTO THE M/U40S ALONG THE CST TO THE L/M50S
ACRS INTERIOR VA AND NE NC.

NEXT TROUGH ALOFT AND ACCOMPANYING SFC CDFNT TO CROSS THE RGN LT
SUN NGT/MON MRNG...W/ VRB CLDS AND LO PROB FOR PCPN (15-30%).
XPCG MORE OF A DP LYRD WSW LO LVL FLO ON MON LEADING TO BETTER
WARMING. SKY AVGG OUT PSNY ON MON...W/ HI TEMPS FM THE L/M60S
E...TO THE L70S W.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN PREVAILS THRU THE EXTENDED...AS NRN STREAM
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACTIVE. THE FIRST NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE EXITS THE
COAST LATE MON NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE REACHING THE OH VALLEY
LATE TUES. ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND TUES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TRACK
OF THE NRN STREAM LOW...WITH THE 27/12Z GFS LIFTING IT THRU NE...THE
27/12Z ECMWF THRU THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND THE 27/12Z CMC
THRU NC. BASED ON THE OVERALL PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW...PREFER THE NRN TRACK...KEEPING THE FA DRY. ASSOCIATED WEAK
COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION TUES NIGHT-WEDS. LIMITED
MOISTURE AND LITTLE APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL RESULT IN A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE. UPPER/SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ERN CONUS WEDS.
THEREAFTER...MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE HANDLING OF A SRN STREAM SYSTEM
LIFTING FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE GULF STATES WEDS-WEDS NIGHT.
GFS QUICKER TO RETURN MOISTURE TO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATES OFF THE SE COAST WEDS-WEDS NIGHT...WHILE ITS ECMWF AND CMC
COUNTERPARTS ARE SLOWER WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN. THEREAFTER...THE
NEXT NRN STREAM SYSTEM PROGGED TO REACH THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY
LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT SPATIAL AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST...WITH THE GFS PUSHING THE FRONT THRU 18
HRS BEFORE THE ECMWF (FRI VS. SAT MORNING). WILL MAINTAIN LOW END
CHANCE POPS BEGINNING THURS. WILL CARRY LOW END CHANCE POPS THROUGH
FRI...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM.

TEMPS TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED WILL BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONABLE
NORMS...IN THE 60S INLAND AND UPPER 50S-LOW 60S ERN SHORE AND
COASTAL AREAS. THURS HIGHS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON POTENTIAL CLOUD
COVER/PRECIP. HAVE OPTED FOR A BLEND...RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 INLAND AND LOW-MID 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL
AREAS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AND OUT
TO SEA OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MAINLY VFR WITH SOME MVFR
POSSIBLE AT SBY/ECG. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING. SCATTERED
-SHRA/-SHSN WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS
STRENGTHEN LATER THIS MORNING AS THE LOW OFF THE COAST INTENSIFIES
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SHOULD
PROMOTE GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT HAS LOCATED OFF THE SE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE SC COAST.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
CURRENT OBS OVER THE WATER INDICATE NLY WINDS AVG 15-20 KT WITH
WAVES 2-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. SFC LOW LIFTS NEWD TONIGHT TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER SURGE TONIGHT. STRONGEST CAA ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
NW WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT OVER THE WATER.
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS SEWD THRU SAT NIGHT-SUN
MORNING...RESULTING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CAA. SCA CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THRU SUN MORNING UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY
BUILDS OVER THE WATER. WAVES GENERALLY 3-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. NW
WINDS SUBSIDE TO 10-15 KT SUN AFTERNOON WITH SEAS DROPPING BELOW 5
FT. EXTENDED SCA HEADLINES THRU SUN MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY
PASSES OVER THE REGION SUN...AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT. FLOW
SHIFTS TO THE SSW. THE NEXT (WEAK) COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W
LATE SUN. SW FLOW INCREASES LATE SUN NIGHT...WITH MODELS INDICATING
SCA CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BASED ON WAA AND COLD WATER...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE SCA CONDITIONS. VERY LITTLE CAA IN WAKE OF THE FRONT LATE
SUN NIGHT-MON MORNING...SO SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED
ATTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS/DAP/LSA
MARINE...AJZ/SAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280534
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
134 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
PCPN SLOWLY MOVG OFFSHORE LATE THIS EVEN AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
MOVES EAST. THUS...CHC POPS (RAIN) CONTS LATE THIS EVENING AND
ERLY MORNING WITH HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE COAST.

PCPN FROM APPRCHG TROF SPREADING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT CNTYS LATE
THIS EVE. PCPN STILL LIQUID IN FORM AS TMPS/DP TMPS REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING. HOWEVER...COLDER AIR OVERSPREADS THE FA AFTR MIDNIGHT
ALLOWING THE RAIN TO BECOME MIXED WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW SHWRS
OR FLRYS. COULD ALSO SEE SOME SLEET MIXED IN DURING THE CHANGEOVER
BUT LIMITED GRIDS TO ONLY 2 P-TYPES FOR NOW. THE CHANGEOVER OCCURS
OVR THE PIEDMONT FIRST THEN TOWARDS THE CHES BAY AND COASTAL AREAS
AFTR 09Z. ANY QFP AFTR MIDNIGHT WILL BE LIGHT SO NO IMPACT ISSUES
ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT. LOWS NR 30F NW TO THE M/U30S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPR TROUGH MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON SAT...THEN OFFSHORE BY
SUN MRNG. HIGHS ON SAT ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE M/U40S.
IF THERE ARE ANY LINGERING SHWRS IN THE MORNING...THERE COULD
STILL BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. AFTN INSTABILITY W/ THE TROUGH
OVERHEAD WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD CUMULUS WHICH MAY RESULT
IN ISOLATED SHWRS THAT SHOULD STAY CONFINED ALONG THE COAST. ALL
SHWRS FINALLY COME TO AN END EARLY SAT EVE...THE SKY CLRS...AND
TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE 20S BY SUN MRNG.

SFC HIGH PRES MOVES ACRS THE RGN ON SUN. XPCG SUNNY/DRY/COOL WX
W/ LGT WINDS. LIMITED MIXING WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK WITH
READINGS ONLY RISING INTO THE M/U40S ALONG THE CST TO THE L/M50S
ACRS INTERIOR VA AND NE NC.

NEXT TROUGH ALOFT AND ACCOMPANYING SFC CDFNT TO CROSS THE RGN LT
SUN NGT/MON MRNG...W/ VRB CLDS AND LO PROB FOR PCPN (15-30%).
XPCG MORE OF A DP LYRD WSW LO LVL FLO ON MON LEADING TO BETTER
WARMING. SKY AVGG OUT PSNY ON MON...W/ HI TEMPS FM THE L/M60S
E...TO THE L70S W.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN PREVAILS THRU THE EXTENDED...AS NRN STREAM
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACTIVE. THE FIRST NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE EXITS THE
COAST LATE MON NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE REACHING THE OH VALLEY
LATE TUES. ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND TUES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TRACK
OF THE NRN STREAM LOW...WITH THE 27/12Z GFS LIFTING IT THRU NE...THE
27/12Z ECMWF THRU THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND THE 27/12Z CMC
THRU NC. BASED ON THE OVERALL PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW...PREFER THE NRN TRACK...KEEPING THE FA DRY. ASSOCIATED WEAK
COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION TUES NIGHT-WEDS. LIMITED
MOISTURE AND LITTLE APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL RESULT IN A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE. UPPER/SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ERN CONUS WEDS.
THEREAFTER...MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE HANDLING OF A SRN STREAM SYSTEM
LIFTING FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE GULF STATES WEDS-WEDS NIGHT.
GFS QUICKER TO RETURN MOISTURE TO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATES OFF THE SE COAST WEDS-WEDS NIGHT...WHILE ITS ECMWF AND CMC
COUNTERPARTS ARE SLOWER WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN. THEREAFTER...THE
NEXT NRN STREAM SYSTEM PROGGED TO REACH THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY
LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT SPATIAL AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST...WITH THE GFS PUSHING THE FRONT THRU 18
HRS BEFORE THE ECMWF (FRI VS. SAT MORNING). WILL MAINTAIN LOW END
CHANCE POPS BEGINNING THURS. WILL CARRY LOW END CHANCE POPS THROUGH
FRI...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM.

TEMPS TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED WILL BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONABLE
NORMS...IN THE 60S INLAND AND UPPER 50S-LOW 60S ERN SHORE AND
COASTAL AREAS. THURS HIGHS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON POTENTIAL CLOUD
COVER/PRECIP. HAVE OPTED FOR A BLEND...RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 INLAND AND LOW-MID 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL
AREAS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AND OUT
TO SEA OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MAINLY VFR WITH SOME MVFR
POSSIBLE AT SBY/ECG. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING. SCATTERED
-SHRA/-SHSN WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS
STRENGTHEN LATER THIS MORNING AS THE LOW OFF THE COAST INTENSIFIES
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SHOULD
PROMOTE GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT HAS LOCATED OFF THE SE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE SC COAST.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
CURRENT OBS OVER THE WATER INDICATE NLY WINDS AVG 15-20 KT WITH
WAVES 2-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. SFC LOW LIFTS NEWD TONIGHT TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER SURGE TONIGHT. STRONGEST CAA ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
NW WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT OVER THE WATER.
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS SEWD THRU SAT NIGHT-SUN
MORNING...RESULTING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CAA. SCA CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THRU SUN MORNING UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY
BUILDS OVER THE WATER. WAVES GENERALLY 3-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. NW
WINDS SUBSIDE TO 10-15 KT SUN AFTERNOON WITH SEAS DROPPING BELOW 5
FT. EXTENDED SCA HEADLINES THRU SUN MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY
PASSES OVER THE REGION SUN...AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT. FLOW
SHIFTS TO THE SSW. THE NEXT (WEAK) COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W
LATE SUN. SW FLOW INCREASES LATE SUN NIGHT...WITH MODELS INDICATING
SCA CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BASED ON WAA AND COLD WATER...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE SCA CONDITIONS. VERY LITTLE CAA IN WAKE OF THE FRONT LATE
SUN NIGHT-MON MORNING...SO SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED
ATTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS/DAP/LSA
MARINE...AJZ/SAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280534
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
134 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
PCPN SLOWLY MOVG OFFSHORE LATE THIS EVEN AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
MOVES EAST. THUS...CHC POPS (RAIN) CONTS LATE THIS EVENING AND
ERLY MORNING WITH HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE COAST.

PCPN FROM APPRCHG TROF SPREADING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT CNTYS LATE
THIS EVE. PCPN STILL LIQUID IN FORM AS TMPS/DP TMPS REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING. HOWEVER...COLDER AIR OVERSPREADS THE FA AFTR MIDNIGHT
ALLOWING THE RAIN TO BECOME MIXED WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW SHWRS
OR FLRYS. COULD ALSO SEE SOME SLEET MIXED IN DURING THE CHANGEOVER
BUT LIMITED GRIDS TO ONLY 2 P-TYPES FOR NOW. THE CHANGEOVER OCCURS
OVR THE PIEDMONT FIRST THEN TOWARDS THE CHES BAY AND COASTAL AREAS
AFTR 09Z. ANY QFP AFTR MIDNIGHT WILL BE LIGHT SO NO IMPACT ISSUES
ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT. LOWS NR 30F NW TO THE M/U30S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPR TROUGH MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON SAT...THEN OFFSHORE BY
SUN MRNG. HIGHS ON SAT ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE M/U40S.
IF THERE ARE ANY LINGERING SHWRS IN THE MORNING...THERE COULD
STILL BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. AFTN INSTABILITY W/ THE TROUGH
OVERHEAD WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD CUMULUS WHICH MAY RESULT
IN ISOLATED SHWRS THAT SHOULD STAY CONFINED ALONG THE COAST. ALL
SHWRS FINALLY COME TO AN END EARLY SAT EVE...THE SKY CLRS...AND
TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE 20S BY SUN MRNG.

SFC HIGH PRES MOVES ACRS THE RGN ON SUN. XPCG SUNNY/DRY/COOL WX
W/ LGT WINDS. LIMITED MIXING WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK WITH
READINGS ONLY RISING INTO THE M/U40S ALONG THE CST TO THE L/M50S
ACRS INTERIOR VA AND NE NC.

NEXT TROUGH ALOFT AND ACCOMPANYING SFC CDFNT TO CROSS THE RGN LT
SUN NGT/MON MRNG...W/ VRB CLDS AND LO PROB FOR PCPN (15-30%).
XPCG MORE OF A DP LYRD WSW LO LVL FLO ON MON LEADING TO BETTER
WARMING. SKY AVGG OUT PSNY ON MON...W/ HI TEMPS FM THE L/M60S
E...TO THE L70S W.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN PREVAILS THRU THE EXTENDED...AS NRN STREAM
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACTIVE. THE FIRST NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE EXITS THE
COAST LATE MON NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE REACHING THE OH VALLEY
LATE TUES. ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND TUES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TRACK
OF THE NRN STREAM LOW...WITH THE 27/12Z GFS LIFTING IT THRU NE...THE
27/12Z ECMWF THRU THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND THE 27/12Z CMC
THRU NC. BASED ON THE OVERALL PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW...PREFER THE NRN TRACK...KEEPING THE FA DRY. ASSOCIATED WEAK
COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION TUES NIGHT-WEDS. LIMITED
MOISTURE AND LITTLE APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL RESULT IN A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE. UPPER/SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ERN CONUS WEDS.
THEREAFTER...MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE HANDLING OF A SRN STREAM SYSTEM
LIFTING FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE GULF STATES WEDS-WEDS NIGHT.
GFS QUICKER TO RETURN MOISTURE TO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATES OFF THE SE COAST WEDS-WEDS NIGHT...WHILE ITS ECMWF AND CMC
COUNTERPARTS ARE SLOWER WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN. THEREAFTER...THE
NEXT NRN STREAM SYSTEM PROGGED TO REACH THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY
LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT SPATIAL AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST...WITH THE GFS PUSHING THE FRONT THRU 18
HRS BEFORE THE ECMWF (FRI VS. SAT MORNING). WILL MAINTAIN LOW END
CHANCE POPS BEGINNING THURS. WILL CARRY LOW END CHANCE POPS THROUGH
FRI...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM.

TEMPS TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED WILL BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONABLE
NORMS...IN THE 60S INLAND AND UPPER 50S-LOW 60S ERN SHORE AND
COASTAL AREAS. THURS HIGHS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON POTENTIAL CLOUD
COVER/PRECIP. HAVE OPTED FOR A BLEND...RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 INLAND AND LOW-MID 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL
AREAS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AND OUT
TO SEA OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MAINLY VFR WITH SOME MVFR
POSSIBLE AT SBY/ECG. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING. SCATTERED
-SHRA/-SHSN WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS
STRENGTHEN LATER THIS MORNING AS THE LOW OFF THE COAST INTENSIFIES
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SHOULD
PROMOTE GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT HAS LOCATED OFF THE SE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE SC COAST.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
CURRENT OBS OVER THE WATER INDICATE NLY WINDS AVG 15-20 KT WITH
WAVES 2-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. SFC LOW LIFTS NEWD TONIGHT TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER SURGE TONIGHT. STRONGEST CAA ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
NW WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT OVER THE WATER.
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS SEWD THRU SAT NIGHT-SUN
MORNING...RESULTING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CAA. SCA CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THRU SUN MORNING UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY
BUILDS OVER THE WATER. WAVES GENERALLY 3-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. NW
WINDS SUBSIDE TO 10-15 KT SUN AFTERNOON WITH SEAS DROPPING BELOW 5
FT. EXTENDED SCA HEADLINES THRU SUN MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY
PASSES OVER THE REGION SUN...AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT. FLOW
SHIFTS TO THE SSW. THE NEXT (WEAK) COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W
LATE SUN. SW FLOW INCREASES LATE SUN NIGHT...WITH MODELS INDICATING
SCA CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BASED ON WAA AND COLD WATER...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE SCA CONDITIONS. VERY LITTLE CAA IN WAKE OF THE FRONT LATE
SUN NIGHT-MON MORNING...SO SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED
ATTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS/DAP/LSA
MARINE...AJZ/SAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280534
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
134 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
PCPN SLOWLY MOVG OFFSHORE LATE THIS EVEN AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
MOVES EAST. THUS...CHC POPS (RAIN) CONTS LATE THIS EVENING AND
ERLY MORNING WITH HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE COAST.

PCPN FROM APPRCHG TROF SPREADING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT CNTYS LATE
THIS EVE. PCPN STILL LIQUID IN FORM AS TMPS/DP TMPS REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING. HOWEVER...COLDER AIR OVERSPREADS THE FA AFTR MIDNIGHT
ALLOWING THE RAIN TO BECOME MIXED WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW SHWRS
OR FLRYS. COULD ALSO SEE SOME SLEET MIXED IN DURING THE CHANGEOVER
BUT LIMITED GRIDS TO ONLY 2 P-TYPES FOR NOW. THE CHANGEOVER OCCURS
OVR THE PIEDMONT FIRST THEN TOWARDS THE CHES BAY AND COASTAL AREAS
AFTR 09Z. ANY QFP AFTR MIDNIGHT WILL BE LIGHT SO NO IMPACT ISSUES
ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT. LOWS NR 30F NW TO THE M/U30S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPR TROUGH MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON SAT...THEN OFFSHORE BY
SUN MRNG. HIGHS ON SAT ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE M/U40S.
IF THERE ARE ANY LINGERING SHWRS IN THE MORNING...THERE COULD
STILL BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. AFTN INSTABILITY W/ THE TROUGH
OVERHEAD WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD CUMULUS WHICH MAY RESULT
IN ISOLATED SHWRS THAT SHOULD STAY CONFINED ALONG THE COAST. ALL
SHWRS FINALLY COME TO AN END EARLY SAT EVE...THE SKY CLRS...AND
TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE 20S BY SUN MRNG.

SFC HIGH PRES MOVES ACRS THE RGN ON SUN. XPCG SUNNY/DRY/COOL WX
W/ LGT WINDS. LIMITED MIXING WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK WITH
READINGS ONLY RISING INTO THE M/U40S ALONG THE CST TO THE L/M50S
ACRS INTERIOR VA AND NE NC.

NEXT TROUGH ALOFT AND ACCOMPANYING SFC CDFNT TO CROSS THE RGN LT
SUN NGT/MON MRNG...W/ VRB CLDS AND LO PROB FOR PCPN (15-30%).
XPCG MORE OF A DP LYRD WSW LO LVL FLO ON MON LEADING TO BETTER
WARMING. SKY AVGG OUT PSNY ON MON...W/ HI TEMPS FM THE L/M60S
E...TO THE L70S W.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN PREVAILS THRU THE EXTENDED...AS NRN STREAM
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACTIVE. THE FIRST NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE EXITS THE
COAST LATE MON NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE REACHING THE OH VALLEY
LATE TUES. ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND TUES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TRACK
OF THE NRN STREAM LOW...WITH THE 27/12Z GFS LIFTING IT THRU NE...THE
27/12Z ECMWF THRU THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND THE 27/12Z CMC
THRU NC. BASED ON THE OVERALL PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW...PREFER THE NRN TRACK...KEEPING THE FA DRY. ASSOCIATED WEAK
COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION TUES NIGHT-WEDS. LIMITED
MOISTURE AND LITTLE APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL RESULT IN A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE. UPPER/SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ERN CONUS WEDS.
THEREAFTER...MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE HANDLING OF A SRN STREAM SYSTEM
LIFTING FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE GULF STATES WEDS-WEDS NIGHT.
GFS QUICKER TO RETURN MOISTURE TO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATES OFF THE SE COAST WEDS-WEDS NIGHT...WHILE ITS ECMWF AND CMC
COUNTERPARTS ARE SLOWER WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN. THEREAFTER...THE
NEXT NRN STREAM SYSTEM PROGGED TO REACH THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY
LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT SPATIAL AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST...WITH THE GFS PUSHING THE FRONT THRU 18
HRS BEFORE THE ECMWF (FRI VS. SAT MORNING). WILL MAINTAIN LOW END
CHANCE POPS BEGINNING THURS. WILL CARRY LOW END CHANCE POPS THROUGH
FRI...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM.

TEMPS TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED WILL BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONABLE
NORMS...IN THE 60S INLAND AND UPPER 50S-LOW 60S ERN SHORE AND
COASTAL AREAS. THURS HIGHS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON POTENTIAL CLOUD
COVER/PRECIP. HAVE OPTED FOR A BLEND...RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 INLAND AND LOW-MID 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL
AREAS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AND OUT
TO SEA OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MAINLY VFR WITH SOME MVFR
POSSIBLE AT SBY/ECG. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING. SCATTERED
-SHRA/-SHSN WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS
STRENGTHEN LATER THIS MORNING AS THE LOW OFF THE COAST INTENSIFIES
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SHOULD
PROMOTE GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT HAS LOCATED OFF THE SE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE SC COAST.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
CURRENT OBS OVER THE WATER INDICATE NLY WINDS AVG 15-20 KT WITH
WAVES 2-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. SFC LOW LIFTS NEWD TONIGHT TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER SURGE TONIGHT. STRONGEST CAA ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
NW WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT OVER THE WATER.
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS SEWD THRU SAT NIGHT-SUN
MORNING...RESULTING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CAA. SCA CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THRU SUN MORNING UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY
BUILDS OVER THE WATER. WAVES GENERALLY 3-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. NW
WINDS SUBSIDE TO 10-15 KT SUN AFTERNOON WITH SEAS DROPPING BELOW 5
FT. EXTENDED SCA HEADLINES THRU SUN MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY
PASSES OVER THE REGION SUN...AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT. FLOW
SHIFTS TO THE SSW. THE NEXT (WEAK) COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W
LATE SUN. SW FLOW INCREASES LATE SUN NIGHT...WITH MODELS INDICATING
SCA CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BASED ON WAA AND COLD WATER...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE SCA CONDITIONS. VERY LITTLE CAA IN WAKE OF THE FRONT LATE
SUN NIGHT-MON MORNING...SO SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED
ATTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS/DAP/LSA
MARINE...AJZ/SAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280534
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
134 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
PCPN SLOWLY MOVG OFFSHORE LATE THIS EVEN AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
MOVES EAST. THUS...CHC POPS (RAIN) CONTS LATE THIS EVENING AND
ERLY MORNING WITH HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE COAST.

PCPN FROM APPRCHG TROF SPREADING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT CNTYS LATE
THIS EVE. PCPN STILL LIQUID IN FORM AS TMPS/DP TMPS REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING. HOWEVER...COLDER AIR OVERSPREADS THE FA AFTR MIDNIGHT
ALLOWING THE RAIN TO BECOME MIXED WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW SHWRS
OR FLRYS. COULD ALSO SEE SOME SLEET MIXED IN DURING THE CHANGEOVER
BUT LIMITED GRIDS TO ONLY 2 P-TYPES FOR NOW. THE CHANGEOVER OCCURS
OVR THE PIEDMONT FIRST THEN TOWARDS THE CHES BAY AND COASTAL AREAS
AFTR 09Z. ANY QFP AFTR MIDNIGHT WILL BE LIGHT SO NO IMPACT ISSUES
ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT. LOWS NR 30F NW TO THE M/U30S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPR TROUGH MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON SAT...THEN OFFSHORE BY
SUN MRNG. HIGHS ON SAT ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE M/U40S.
IF THERE ARE ANY LINGERING SHWRS IN THE MORNING...THERE COULD
STILL BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. AFTN INSTABILITY W/ THE TROUGH
OVERHEAD WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD CUMULUS WHICH MAY RESULT
IN ISOLATED SHWRS THAT SHOULD STAY CONFINED ALONG THE COAST. ALL
SHWRS FINALLY COME TO AN END EARLY SAT EVE...THE SKY CLRS...AND
TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE 20S BY SUN MRNG.

SFC HIGH PRES MOVES ACRS THE RGN ON SUN. XPCG SUNNY/DRY/COOL WX
W/ LGT WINDS. LIMITED MIXING WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK WITH
READINGS ONLY RISING INTO THE M/U40S ALONG THE CST TO THE L/M50S
ACRS INTERIOR VA AND NE NC.

NEXT TROUGH ALOFT AND ACCOMPANYING SFC CDFNT TO CROSS THE RGN LT
SUN NGT/MON MRNG...W/ VRB CLDS AND LO PROB FOR PCPN (15-30%).
XPCG MORE OF A DP LYRD WSW LO LVL FLO ON MON LEADING TO BETTER
WARMING. SKY AVGG OUT PSNY ON MON...W/ HI TEMPS FM THE L/M60S
E...TO THE L70S W.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN PREVAILS THRU THE EXTENDED...AS NRN STREAM
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACTIVE. THE FIRST NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE EXITS THE
COAST LATE MON NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE REACHING THE OH VALLEY
LATE TUES. ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND TUES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TRACK
OF THE NRN STREAM LOW...WITH THE 27/12Z GFS LIFTING IT THRU NE...THE
27/12Z ECMWF THRU THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND THE 27/12Z CMC
THRU NC. BASED ON THE OVERALL PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW...PREFER THE NRN TRACK...KEEPING THE FA DRY. ASSOCIATED WEAK
COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION TUES NIGHT-WEDS. LIMITED
MOISTURE AND LITTLE APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL RESULT IN A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE. UPPER/SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ERN CONUS WEDS.
THEREAFTER...MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE HANDLING OF A SRN STREAM SYSTEM
LIFTING FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE GULF STATES WEDS-WEDS NIGHT.
GFS QUICKER TO RETURN MOISTURE TO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATES OFF THE SE COAST WEDS-WEDS NIGHT...WHILE ITS ECMWF AND CMC
COUNTERPARTS ARE SLOWER WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN. THEREAFTER...THE
NEXT NRN STREAM SYSTEM PROGGED TO REACH THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY
LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT SPATIAL AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST...WITH THE GFS PUSHING THE FRONT THRU 18
HRS BEFORE THE ECMWF (FRI VS. SAT MORNING). WILL MAINTAIN LOW END
CHANCE POPS BEGINNING THURS. WILL CARRY LOW END CHANCE POPS THROUGH
FRI...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM.

TEMPS TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED WILL BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONABLE
NORMS...IN THE 60S INLAND AND UPPER 50S-LOW 60S ERN SHORE AND
COASTAL AREAS. THURS HIGHS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON POTENTIAL CLOUD
COVER/PRECIP. HAVE OPTED FOR A BLEND...RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 INLAND AND LOW-MID 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL
AREAS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AND OUT
TO SEA OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MAINLY VFR WITH SOME MVFR
POSSIBLE AT SBY/ECG. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING. SCATTERED
-SHRA/-SHSN WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS
STRENGTHEN LATER THIS MORNING AS THE LOW OFF THE COAST INTENSIFIES
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SHOULD
PROMOTE GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT HAS LOCATED OFF THE SE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE SC COAST.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
CURRENT OBS OVER THE WATER INDICATE NLY WINDS AVG 15-20 KT WITH
WAVES 2-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. SFC LOW LIFTS NEWD TONIGHT TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER SURGE TONIGHT. STRONGEST CAA ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
NW WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT OVER THE WATER.
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS SEWD THRU SAT NIGHT-SUN
MORNING...RESULTING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CAA. SCA CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THRU SUN MORNING UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY
BUILDS OVER THE WATER. WAVES GENERALLY 3-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. NW
WINDS SUBSIDE TO 10-15 KT SUN AFTERNOON WITH SEAS DROPPING BELOW 5
FT. EXTENDED SCA HEADLINES THRU SUN MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY
PASSES OVER THE REGION SUN...AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT. FLOW
SHIFTS TO THE SSW. THE NEXT (WEAK) COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W
LATE SUN. SW FLOW INCREASES LATE SUN NIGHT...WITH MODELS INDICATING
SCA CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BASED ON WAA AND COLD WATER...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE SCA CONDITIONS. VERY LITTLE CAA IN WAKE OF THE FRONT LATE
SUN NIGHT-MON MORNING...SO SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED
ATTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS/DAP/LSA
MARINE...AJZ/SAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280144
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
944 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST IS IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST THIS
EVENING. THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST PCPN WITH THE LOW HAS SHIFTED
EAST WITH ONLY AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN BEING REPORTED. TEMPS STILL
ABOVE FREEZING SO KEPT CHC RAIN ALL AREAS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
ALONG THE COAST THRU MIDNIGHT.

ECHOES ASSCTD WITH THE UVM FROM APPRCHG TROF ALRDY DVLPNG ACROSS
NWRN MOST CNTYS. LATEST RAP/HRRR SHOW THIS PCPN TO CONTINUE THRU
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES ESE ACROSS THE FA. CAA
CONTS AND TMPS WILL EVENTUALLY COOL ENUF TO WHERE THE LGHT RAIN
BECOMES MIXED WITH OR CHANGES TO SNOW SHWRS/FLRYS AFTR 06Z. THE
CHANGEOVER OCCURS OVR THE PIEDMONT FIRST THEN TOWARDS THE CHES BAY
AND COASTAL AREAS AFTR 09Z. ANY QFP AFTR MIDNIGHT WILL BE LIGHT SO
NO IMPACT ISSUES ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT. LOWS NR 30F NW TO
THE M/U30S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPR TROUGH MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON SAT...THEN OFFSHORE BY
SUN MRNG. HIGHS ON SAT ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE M/U40S.
IF THERE ARE ANY LINGERING SHWRS IN THE MORNING...THERE COULD
STILL BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. AFTN INSTABILITY W/ THE TROUGH
OVERHEAD WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD CUMULUS WHICH MAY RESULT
IN ISOLATED SHWRS THAT SHOULD STAY CONFINED ALONG THE COAST. ALL
SHWRS FINALLY COME TO AN END EARLY SAT EVE...THE SKY CLRS...AND
TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE 20S BY SUN MRNG.

SFC HIGH PRES MOVES ACRS THE RGN ON SUN. XPCG SUNNY/DRY/COOL WX
W/ LGT WINDS. LIMITED MIXING WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK WITH
READINGS ONLY RISING INTO THE M/U40S ALONG THE CST TO THE L/M50S
ACRS INTERIOR VA AND NE NC.

NEXT TROUGH ALOFT AND ACCOMPANYING SFC CDFNT TO CROSS THE RGN LT
SUN NGT/MON MRNG...W/ VRB CLDS AND LO PROB FOR PCPN (15-30%).
XPCG MORE OF A DP LYRD WSW LO LVL FLO ON MON LEADING TO BETTER
WARMING. SKY AVGG OUT PSNY ON MON...W/ HI TEMPS FM THE L/M60S
E...TO THE L70S W.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN PREVAILS THRU THE EXTENDED...AS NRN STREAM
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACTIVE. THE FIRST NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE EXITS THE
COAST LATE MON NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE REACHING THE OH VALLEY
LATE TUES. ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND TUES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TRACK
OF THE NRN STREAM LOW...WITH THE 27/12Z GFS LIFTING IT THRU NE...THE
27/12Z ECMWF THRU THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND THE 27/12Z CMC
THRU NC. BASED ON THE OVERALL PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW...PREFER THE NRN TRACK...KEEPING THE FA DRY. ASSOCIATED WEAK
COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION TUES NIGHT-WEDS. LIMITED
MOISTURE AND LITTLE APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL RESULT IN A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE. UPPER/SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ERN CONUS WEDS.
THEREAFTER...MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE HANDLING OF A SRN STREAM SYSTEM
LIFTING FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE GULF STATES WEDS-WEDS NIGHT.
GFS QUICKER TO RETURN MOISTURE TO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATES OFF THE SE COAST WEDS-WEDS NIGHT...WHILE ITS ECMWF AND CMC
COUNTERPARTS ARE SLOWER WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN. THEREAFTER...THE
NEXT NRN STREAM SYSTEM PROGGED TO REACH THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY
LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT SPATIAL AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST...WITH THE GFS PUSHING THE FRONT THRU 18
HRS BEFORE THE ECMWF (FRI VS. SAT MORNING). WILL MAINTAIN LOW END
CHANCE POPS BEGINNING THURS. WILL CARRY LOW END CHANCE POPS THROUGH
FRI...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM.

TEMPS TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED WILL BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONABLE
NORMS...IN THE 60S INLAND AND UPPER 50S-LOW 60S ERN SHORE AND
COASTAL AREAS. THURS HIGHS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON POTENTIAL CLOUD
COVER/PRECIP. HAVE OPTED FOR A BLEND...RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 INLAND AND LOW-MID 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL
AREAS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AND OUT
TO SEA OVERNIGHT. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES FROM THE WEST SATURDAY MORNING. SCATTERED
-SHRA/-SHSN WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WINDS
STRENGTHEN SATURDAY MORNING AS THE LOW OFF THE COAST INTENSIFIES
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SHOULD
PROMOTE GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT HAS LOCATED OFF THE SE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE SC COAST.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
CURRENT OBS OVER THE WATER INDICATE NLY WINDS AVG 15-20 KT WITH
WAVES 2-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. SFC LOW LIFTS NEWD TONIGHT TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER SURGE TONIGHT. STRONGEST CAA ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
NW WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT OVER THE WATER.
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS SEWD THRU SAT NIGHT-SUN
MORNING...RESULTING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CAA. SCA CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THRU SUN MORNING UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY
BUILDS OVER THE WATER. WAVES GENERALLY 3-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. NW
WINDS SUBSIDE TO 10-15 KT SUN AFTERNOON WITH SEAS DROPPING BELOW 5
FT. EXTENDED SCA HEADLINES THRU SUN MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY
PASSES OVER THE REGION SUN...AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT. FLOW
SHIFTS TO THE SSW. THE NEXT (WEAK) COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W
LATE SUN. SW FLOW INCREASES LATE SUN NIGHT...WITH MODELS INDICATING
SCA CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BASED ON WAA AND COLD WATER...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE SCA CONDITIONS. VERY LITTLE CAA IN WAKE OF THE FRONT LATE
SUN NIGHT-MON MORNING...SO SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED
ATTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...AJZ/SAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280144
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
944 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
PCPN SLOWLY MOVG OFFSHORE LATE THIS EVEN AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
MOVES EAST. THUS...CHC POPS (RAIN) CONTS LATE THIS EVENING AND
ERLY MORNING WITH HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE COAST.

PCPN FROM APPRCHG TROF SPREADING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT CNTYS LATE
THIS EVE. PCPN STILL LIQUID IN FORM AS TMPS/DP TMPS REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING. HOWEVER...COLDER AIR OVERSPREADS THE FA AFTR MIDNIGHT
ALLOWING THE RAIN TO BECOME MIXED WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW SHWRS
OR FLRYS. COULD ALSO SEE SOME SLEET MIXED IN DURING THE CHANGEOVER
BUT LIMITED GRIDS TO ONLY 2 P-TYPES FOR NOW. THE CHANGEOVER OCCURS
OVR THE PIEDMONT FIRST THEN TOWARDS THE CHES BAY AND COASTAL AREAS
AFTR 09Z. ANY QFP AFTR MIDNIGHT WILL BE LIGHT SO NO IMPACT ISSUES
ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT. LOWS NR 30F NW TO THE M/U30S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPR TROUGH MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON SAT...THEN OFFSHORE BY
SUN MRNG. HIGHS ON SAT ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE M/U40S.
IF THERE ARE ANY LINGERING SHWRS IN THE MORNING...THERE COULD
STILL BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. AFTN INSTABILITY W/ THE TROUGH
OVERHEAD WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD CUMULUS WHICH MAY RESULT
IN ISOLATED SHWRS THAT SHOULD STAY CONFINED ALONG THE COAST. ALL
SHWRS FINALLY COME TO AN END EARLY SAT EVE...THE SKY CLRS...AND
TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE 20S BY SUN MRNG.

SFC HIGH PRES MOVES ACRS THE RGN ON SUN. XPCG SUNNY/DRY/COOL WX
W/ LGT WINDS. LIMITED MIXING WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK WITH
READINGS ONLY RISING INTO THE M/U40S ALONG THE CST TO THE L/M50S
ACRS INTERIOR VA AND NE NC.

NEXT TROUGH ALOFT AND ACCOMPANYING SFC CDFNT TO CROSS THE RGN LT
SUN NGT/MON MRNG...W/ VRB CLDS AND LO PROB FOR PCPN (15-30%).
XPCG MORE OF A DP LYRD WSW LO LVL FLO ON MON LEADING TO BETTER
WARMING. SKY AVGG OUT PSNY ON MON...W/ HI TEMPS FM THE L/M60S
E...TO THE L70S W.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN PREVAILS THRU THE EXTENDED...AS NRN STREAM
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACTIVE. THE FIRST NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE EXITS THE
COAST LATE MON NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE REACHING THE OH VALLEY
LATE TUES. ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND TUES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TRACK
OF THE NRN STREAM LOW...WITH THE 27/12Z GFS LIFTING IT THRU NE...THE
27/12Z ECMWF THRU THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND THE 27/12Z CMC
THRU NC. BASED ON THE OVERALL PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW...PREFER THE NRN TRACK...KEEPING THE FA DRY. ASSOCIATED WEAK
COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION TUES NIGHT-WEDS. LIMITED
MOISTURE AND LITTLE APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL RESULT IN A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE. UPPER/SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ERN CONUS WEDS.
THEREAFTER...MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE HANDLING OF A SRN STREAM SYSTEM
LIFTING FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE GULF STATES WEDS-WEDS NIGHT.
GFS QUICKER TO RETURN MOISTURE TO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATES OFF THE SE COAST WEDS-WEDS NIGHT...WHILE ITS ECMWF AND CMC
COUNTERPARTS ARE SLOWER WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN. THEREAFTER...THE
NEXT NRN STREAM SYSTEM PROGGED TO REACH THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY
LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT SPATIAL AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST...WITH THE GFS PUSHING THE FRONT THRU 18
HRS BEFORE THE ECMWF (FRI VS. SAT MORNING). WILL MAINTAIN LOW END
CHANCE POPS BEGINNING THURS. WILL CARRY LOW END CHANCE POPS THROUGH
FRI...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM.

TEMPS TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED WILL BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONABLE
NORMS...IN THE 60S INLAND AND UPPER 50S-LOW 60S ERN SHORE AND
COASTAL AREAS. THURS HIGHS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON POTENTIAL CLOUD
COVER/PRECIP. HAVE OPTED FOR A BLEND...RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 INLAND AND LOW-MID 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL
AREAS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS HAS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA
THIS AFTN. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES FROM THE WEST SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES HAVE FREQUENTLY VARIED FROM VFR TO IFR
WITH MVFR BEING THE MOST PREDOMINANT CONDITION EXCEPT MOSTLY IFR AT
ECG. IT HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN THE TRENDS BUT BUFR
SOUNDINGS WOULD INDICATE AN OVERALL DECREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TOWARD EVENING. THE SOUNDINGS BECOME MORE SATURATED AGAIN WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE TROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. DID NOT LOWER
CEILINGS VERY MUCH DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND ANY PCPN WILL BE TOO
SPARSE AND UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. AN IMPROVING TREND
RETURNS TOWARD MIDDAY SATURDAY.

WINDS DIMINISH LATE TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS BUT THEY
STRENGTHEN AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING AS THE LOW OFF THE COAST
INTENSIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SHOULD
PROMOTE GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT HAS LOCATED OFF THE SE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE SC COAST.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
CURRENT OBS OVER THE WATER INDICATE NLY WINDS AVG 15-20 KT WITH
WAVES 2-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. SFC LOW LIFTS NEWD TONIGHT TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER SURGE TONIGHT. STRONGEST CAA ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
NW WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT OVER THE WATER.
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS SEWD THRU SAT NIGHT-SUN
MORNING...RESULTING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CAA. SCA CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THRU SUN MORNING UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY
BUILDS OVER THE WATER. WAVES GENERALLY 3-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. NW
WINDS SUBSIDE TO 10-15 KT SUN AFTERNOON WITH SEAS DROPPING BELOW 5
FT. EXTENDED SCA HEADLINES THRU SUN MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY
PASSES OVER THE REGION SUN...AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT. FLOW
SHIFTS TO THE SSW. THE NEXT (WEAK) COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W
LATE SUN. SW FLOW INCREASES LATE SUN NIGHT...WITH MODELS INDICATING
SCA CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BASED ON WAA AND COLD WATER...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE SCA CONDITIONS. VERY LITTLE CAA IN WAKE OF THE FRONT LATE
SUN NIGHT-MON MORNING...SO SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED
ATTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ/SAM




000
FXUS61 KLWX 280023
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
823 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD SUNDAY. SEVERAL WEAK FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

RE: DC CHERRY BLOSSOMS AND AVG TEMPERATURE.

FOR THE PAST 30 YRS...LOOKING AT AVG TEMPS FOR THE PD 2/1-3/26...FOR
DC 2015 IS THE 2ND COLDEST...ONLY BEHIND 1993. NPS WEB SITE STILL
DOES NOT SHOW ANY BLOSSOM ACTIVITY AS HAVG BEGUN. IN 1993 THE PEAK
OCCURRED ON 4/11. THE LATEST PEAK BLOOM (SINCE 1921) WAS IN 1958 -
4/18.

RDR SHOWS LGT SNSH OVR W.V. IN ASSO W/ A VORT IN THE LONG WV
PATTERN. SHORT RNG MDLS SHOW THIS DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES E OF THE
MTNS.

WHILE WE HV CHC SW/RW IN THE FCST FOR SAT MRNG THRU MID AFTN THIS
IS THE TIME OF YR WHERE LO LVL INSTABILITY COUPLED W/ A COLD POOL
ALOFT CAN PRODUCE GRAUPEL.

PRVS DSCN...

HIPRES BUILDS DURING THE MID-LT AFTN...WHICH WL ALLOW FOR SKIES
TO BEGIN CLRG. THUS DONT HV ANY POPS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
AFTN. WINDS WL BE GUSTY ALL DAY...AND THAT WL CONT TO NIGHTFALL.
TOP OF MIXED LYR CONTAINS 25 KT...WHICH GIVES A REASONABLE IDEA OF
THE GUST POTL.

TEMP GDNC FAIRLY WELL CLUSTERED AND CONSISTENT W/ GOING FCST. AS
SUCH...HV TAKEN A BLEND TO IRON OUT ANY CONSISTENCIES THAT MAY
RESIDE. THAT MEANS MIN-T MID TEENS-20S MTNS AND 30-35F CSTL PLAIN.
MAXT MID 30S-MID 40S. SHADED TEMPS ACRS THE NORTH AND WEST DOWN BY A
DEGF OR TWO TO ACCT FOR IMPACT OF CAA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

AFTER A DAY IN WHICH IT MAY FEEL LIKE WINTER IS STILL HERE - ON
SAT...SUNDAY WILL BE A SLIGHT REBOUND BACK TOWARD MORE AVERAGE
CONDITIONS. ULTIMATELY WE`LL MISS THE MARK IN TEMPS OF AVG HIGHS ON
SUN BY A SOLID 10F DEG OF SO...BUT LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL AT LEAST SUPPLEMENT THE COOLER TEMPS. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE
WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR QUIET WX CONDITIONS ON SUN...BUT WITH A
STILL VERY ACTIVE JET STREAM - MULTIPLE UPPER DISTURBANCES REMAIN IN
THE QUEUE FOR PASSAGE OVER THE COMING WEEK.

FAST ON THE HEELS OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE RELATIVELY LARGE BUT
FAIRLY MOISTURE-STARVED UPPER WAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AGAIN DROP DOWN INTO THE M-U30S BUT W/ A LIGHT
SLY WIND OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE...THESE CONDITIONS
WILL BE MODERATED AND PREVENT MOST AREAS FROM REACHING THE FREEZING
MARK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY MON MRNG...QUICKLY PASSING
ACROSS THE REGION AND MAINLY JUST SWITCHING THE SFC WIND DIRECTION
FROM SLY TO WLY...ALSO EFFICIENTLY MIXING DOWN SOME GUSTY WINDS FOR
THE DAYTIME HRS. WEST WINDS OF 20-30MPH EXPECTED W/ LOCALLY HIGHER
GUSTS...CREATING SOME DOWNSLOPING AND A SUPPLEMENTAL TEMP INCREASE
IN THE LEE OF THE APLCNS/BLUE RIDGE. HIGHS OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE
AREA WILL LIKELY JUMP INTO THE M-U50S...THOUGH NOVA THE PIEDMONT MAY
SEE SOME M-U60S BY LATE AFTN W/ CLEARING SKIES AFTER THE EARLY MRNG
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE OUT OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER GREAT LAKES FOR WEAK PVA TO TRIGGERS A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR
TWO TUESDAY. GREAT LAKES LOW WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH. TEMPERATURE
PROFILE SUPPORTS MIXED PRECIPITATION IF ANY OCCURS LATE TUESDAY
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. WEAK PVA IN ZONAL FLOW WILL SUPPORT RAIN AHEAD
OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
THIGHTNING GRADIENT BETWEEN APPROACH FRONT AND OFFSHORE RIDGE WILL
PRODUCE S-SW WINDS 10-15 KTS THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDS THRU SAT. RW/SW/IP PSBL DURG MRNG HRS SAT ALNG W/ BRIEF
GUSTY WINDS.

WINDS SHUD BE GUSTY BHD TROF...FROM THE NW ARND 20-25 KT.
SUSTAINED WINDS LKLY IN THE TEENS...NOT PROVIDING ENUF SEPARATION
TO EXPLICITLY INCL GUSTS IN TAF.

NO HAZARDOUS WX CONDS EXPECTED FROM LATE SAT INTO MON...OUTSIDE OF
SOME BREEZY CONDS ON MON AFTN BEHIND A COLD FRONT. BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS IN THE 30-40KT RANGE W/ SOME 20-25KT GUSTS AT THE SFC DURING
THE DAYTIME HRS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS PICKING UP TONIGHT...ALTHO BETTER MIXING MAY NOT REACH THE
NARROWER WATERS TIL SUNRISE TMRW. HV MADE APPROPRIATE ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE DATABASE. ONCE IT BEGINS...TOP OF MIXED LYR CONTAINS 25
KT...WHICH GIVES A REASONABLE IDEA OF THE GUST POTL. SCA FOR ALL
WATERS SAT.

BREEZY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS SAT
NIGHT...ESPEC THE MAIN STEM OF THE MD CHES BAY. A SLOW STEADY WIND
DROP OFF ON SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE MAKES A BRIEF APPEARANCE BEFORE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON MON MRNG. BEHIND THE FRONT...WEST WINDS WILL
AGAIN PICK UP INTO SOLID SCA RANGES FOR THE DAYTIME HRS MON.

&&

CLIMATE...
OUR AREA IS IN THE MIDST OF A LARGE SWING IN TEMPERATURES. AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON (MARCH 26TH)...THE REGION SAW THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES OBSERVED SINCE LATE OCTOBER 2014.

SITE...3/26/15 MAX T...WARMEST SINCE.....
DCA.......77 F.......10/28/2014 (80 F)...
BWI.......74 F.......10/28/2014 (80 F)...
IAD.......74 F.......10/28/2014 (82 F)...

SUNDAY MORNING (MARCH 29TH)...LOW TEMPERATURES MAY APPROACH RECORD
MINIMUM VALUES FOR THE DATE.

SITE...3/29 RECORD MIN T...
DCA......18 (1923).........
BWI......18 (1923).........
IAD......20 (1982).........

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WOODY!/DFH
PRVS...HTS/GMS



000
FXUS61 KLWX 280023
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
823 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD SUNDAY. SEVERAL WEAK FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

RE: DC CHERRY BLOSSOMS AND AVG TEMPERATURE.

FOR THE PAST 30 YRS...LOOKING AT AVG TEMPS FOR THE PD 2/1-3/26...FOR
DC 2015 IS THE 2ND COLDEST...ONLY BEHIND 1993. NPS WEB SITE STILL
DOES NOT SHOW ANY BLOSSOM ACTIVITY AS HAVG BEGUN. IN 1993 THE PEAK
OCCURRED ON 4/11. THE LATEST PEAK BLOOM (SINCE 1921) WAS IN 1958 -
4/18.

RDR SHOWS LGT SNSH OVR W.V. IN ASSO W/ A VORT IN THE LONG WV
PATTERN. SHORT RNG MDLS SHOW THIS DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES E OF THE
MTNS.

WHILE WE HV CHC SW/RW IN THE FCST FOR SAT MRNG THRU MID AFTN THIS
IS THE TIME OF YR WHERE LO LVL INSTABILITY COUPLED W/ A COLD POOL
ALOFT CAN PRODUCE GRAUPEL.

PRVS DSCN...

HIPRES BUILDS DURING THE MID-LT AFTN...WHICH WL ALLOW FOR SKIES
TO BEGIN CLRG. THUS DONT HV ANY POPS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
AFTN. WINDS WL BE GUSTY ALL DAY...AND THAT WL CONT TO NIGHTFALL.
TOP OF MIXED LYR CONTAINS 25 KT...WHICH GIVES A REASONABLE IDEA OF
THE GUST POTL.

TEMP GDNC FAIRLY WELL CLUSTERED AND CONSISTENT W/ GOING FCST. AS
SUCH...HV TAKEN A BLEND TO IRON OUT ANY CONSISTENCIES THAT MAY
RESIDE. THAT MEANS MIN-T MID TEENS-20S MTNS AND 30-35F CSTL PLAIN.
MAXT MID 30S-MID 40S. SHADED TEMPS ACRS THE NORTH AND WEST DOWN BY A
DEGF OR TWO TO ACCT FOR IMPACT OF CAA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

AFTER A DAY IN WHICH IT MAY FEEL LIKE WINTER IS STILL HERE - ON
SAT...SUNDAY WILL BE A SLIGHT REBOUND BACK TOWARD MORE AVERAGE
CONDITIONS. ULTIMATELY WE`LL MISS THE MARK IN TEMPS OF AVG HIGHS ON
SUN BY A SOLID 10F DEG OF SO...BUT LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL AT LEAST SUPPLEMENT THE COOLER TEMPS. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE
WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR QUIET WX CONDITIONS ON SUN...BUT WITH A
STILL VERY ACTIVE JET STREAM - MULTIPLE UPPER DISTURBANCES REMAIN IN
THE QUEUE FOR PASSAGE OVER THE COMING WEEK.

FAST ON THE HEELS OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE RELATIVELY LARGE BUT
FAIRLY MOISTURE-STARVED UPPER WAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AGAIN DROP DOWN INTO THE M-U30S BUT W/ A LIGHT
SLY WIND OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE...THESE CONDITIONS
WILL BE MODERATED AND PREVENT MOST AREAS FROM REACHING THE FREEZING
MARK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY MON MRNG...QUICKLY PASSING
ACROSS THE REGION AND MAINLY JUST SWITCHING THE SFC WIND DIRECTION
FROM SLY TO WLY...ALSO EFFICIENTLY MIXING DOWN SOME GUSTY WINDS FOR
THE DAYTIME HRS. WEST WINDS OF 20-30MPH EXPECTED W/ LOCALLY HIGHER
GUSTS...CREATING SOME DOWNSLOPING AND A SUPPLEMENTAL TEMP INCREASE
IN THE LEE OF THE APLCNS/BLUE RIDGE. HIGHS OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE
AREA WILL LIKELY JUMP INTO THE M-U50S...THOUGH NOVA THE PIEDMONT MAY
SEE SOME M-U60S BY LATE AFTN W/ CLEARING SKIES AFTER THE EARLY MRNG
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE OUT OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER GREAT LAKES FOR WEAK PVA TO TRIGGERS A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR
TWO TUESDAY. GREAT LAKES LOW WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH. TEMPERATURE
PROFILE SUPPORTS MIXED PRECIPITATION IF ANY OCCURS LATE TUESDAY
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. WEAK PVA IN ZONAL FLOW WILL SUPPORT RAIN AHEAD
OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
THIGHTNING GRADIENT BETWEEN APPROACH FRONT AND OFFSHORE RIDGE WILL
PRODUCE S-SW WINDS 10-15 KTS THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDS THRU SAT. RW/SW/IP PSBL DURG MRNG HRS SAT ALNG W/ BRIEF
GUSTY WINDS.

WINDS SHUD BE GUSTY BHD TROF...FROM THE NW ARND 20-25 KT.
SUSTAINED WINDS LKLY IN THE TEENS...NOT PROVIDING ENUF SEPARATION
TO EXPLICITLY INCL GUSTS IN TAF.

NO HAZARDOUS WX CONDS EXPECTED FROM LATE SAT INTO MON...OUTSIDE OF
SOME BREEZY CONDS ON MON AFTN BEHIND A COLD FRONT. BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS IN THE 30-40KT RANGE W/ SOME 20-25KT GUSTS AT THE SFC DURING
THE DAYTIME HRS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS PICKING UP TONIGHT...ALTHO BETTER MIXING MAY NOT REACH THE
NARROWER WATERS TIL SUNRISE TMRW. HV MADE APPROPRIATE ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE DATABASE. ONCE IT BEGINS...TOP OF MIXED LYR CONTAINS 25
KT...WHICH GIVES A REASONABLE IDEA OF THE GUST POTL. SCA FOR ALL
WATERS SAT.

BREEZY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS SAT
NIGHT...ESPEC THE MAIN STEM OF THE MD CHES BAY. A SLOW STEADY WIND
DROP OFF ON SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE MAKES A BRIEF APPEARANCE BEFORE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON MON MRNG. BEHIND THE FRONT...WEST WINDS WILL
AGAIN PICK UP INTO SOLID SCA RANGES FOR THE DAYTIME HRS MON.

&&

CLIMATE...
OUR AREA IS IN THE MIDST OF A LARGE SWING IN TEMPERATURES. AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON (MARCH 26TH)...THE REGION SAW THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES OBSERVED SINCE LATE OCTOBER 2014.

SITE...3/26/15 MAX T...WARMEST SINCE.....
DCA.......77 F.......10/28/2014 (80 F)...
BWI.......74 F.......10/28/2014 (80 F)...
IAD.......74 F.......10/28/2014 (82 F)...

SUNDAY MORNING (MARCH 29TH)...LOW TEMPERATURES MAY APPROACH RECORD
MINIMUM VALUES FOR THE DATE.

SITE...3/29 RECORD MIN T...
DCA......18 (1923).........
BWI......18 (1923).........
IAD......20 (1982).........

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WOODY!/DFH
PRVS...HTS/GMS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 280008
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
808 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MOISTURE APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 735 PM EDT FRIDAY...

MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST
HOURLY TRENDS IN TEMPERATURE...DEW POINTS...AND CLOUDS...AND
ELIMINATED THREAT OF ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AFTER 5 AM ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA BASED ON LATEST WRF AND
HRRR MODEL OUTPUT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO BE ON
TARGET...SO NO NEED TO MAKE ANY ADDITIONAL THERMAL ADJUSTMENTS.

LATEST SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW WEAK SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING EAST
THROUGH EASTERN TN...WITH SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES/SHOWERS MOVING
NORTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE EAST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM
NEAR MOUNT AIRY NC TO NEAR LYNCHBURG VA. BACK EDGE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE...WITH ALL AREAS IN
PIEDMONT EXPECTED TO BE PRECIPITATION FREE NO LATER THAN 5 AM
SATURDAY MORNING. ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR WILL LIKELY COME TOO LATE
TO SEE ANY CHANGE-OVER TO SNOW EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

FURTHER WEST...ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR ON BACKSIDE OF THE SHORT WAVE
SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING UPSLOPING LIGHT SNOWS ACROSS THE
WESTERN FLANKS OF THE APPALACHIANS. AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION
IS STILL QUITE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN
PREFERRED UPSLOPE AREAS...SUCH AS WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY
WV...AND THIS THREAT ALREADY WELL ADVERTISED IN EXISTING
FORECAST.

AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE APPALACHIANS
TONIGHT AND SLIDE EAST ON SATURDAY. ANA-FRONT PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL
PUSH INTO THE REGION SLOWLY ENDING THE PRECIPITATION IN THE EAST.
A SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH TONIGHT.
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL COMBINE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND NORTHWEST
FLOW TO PRODUCE UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. A LIGHT COATING UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW MAY BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY IN THE NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FAVORED
LOCATIONS. IN CONTRAST... THE DOWNSLOPING WINDS ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL GENERATE CLEARING ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT.
SHAPED CLOUD COVER TONIGHT TOWARDS THE CANADIAN TONIGHT. INITIALLY
LEANED POPS TOWARDS A BLEND OF HRRR...HIRESW-ARW AND NAM THEN MORE
TOWARDS GFS WHICH SEEMS TO CAPTURES UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION IN THE
WEST BETTER TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TEENS IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE
PIEDMONT.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SATURDAY
AND BRING AN END TO ANY LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE FAR
WESTERN SLOPES. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE CHILLY WITH READINGS
FROM THE MID 20S IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT FRIDAY...

VERY COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ABOUT OVERHEAD THE
MOUNTAINS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH OPTIMAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND VERY DRY AIR. GIVEN
85H TEMPS OF BETWEEN -10 AND -15C SHOULD SEE TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE
TEENS IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S EAST PENDING
JUST HOW FAST WINDS DECOUPLE. THUS TRENDED ON THE COLD SIDE OF MOS
WHICH WILL PUSH LOWS TO AT OR BELOW RECORD LEVELS BY EARLY SUNDAY IN
SPOTS PER THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING QUICK CHANGES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
PASSING SHORTWAVE RIDGING BEING REPLACED BY ANOTHER UPSTREAM 5H TROUGH
AND SUBSEQUENT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY. FAST REBOUND WITH WARM
ADVECTION DEVELOPING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING HIGH ON SUNDAY
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RECOVER TO THE UPPER 40S-MID 50S GIVEN HEATING OF
DRY AIR DESPITE SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS LATE. PRE-FRONTAL
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT WILL ALSO ARRIVE PRETTY QUICK SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH MODELS SHOWING AN AXIS OF SHOWERS PUSHING ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS BY MIDNIGHT AND THEN EXITING TO THE SOUTH BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SUPPORTS GOING FROM BASICALLY DRY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING
TO HIGH CHANCE OR LOW LIKELYS MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND CHANCES SOUTH-
WEST MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT LOW TEMPS TO REMAIN JUST WARM
ENOUGH...MOSTLY 30S TO SEE MOSTLY LIQUID PTYPE WITH ONLY THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE NW SEEING THINGS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS.
WINDS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AN ISSUE GIVEN SQUEEZING OF THE
GRADIENT WITH THE FRONT BUT FOR NOW APPEARS SHOULD STAY MOSTLY BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS GIVEN A MARGINAL 85H JET AND UNIMPRESSIVE PRESSURE
RISES. OTRW HIGHS MONDAY MOSTLY 50S WEST TO MID/UPPER 60S EAST PER
STRONG DOWNSLOPE AND MORE SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT FRIDAY...

NW FLOW ALOFT PER CONTINUED UPPER TROFFINESS ACROSS THE NE STATES WILL
KEEP PERIODIC PIECES OF CLIPPER ENERGY FLOWING SE INTO MIDWEEK WITH
PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NW WITH A STRONGER FRONT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED SO THINKING MAY STAY DRY WITH THE
CORE OF THESE FEATURES WELL NORTH SUPPORTING ONLY ISOLATED POPS AT THIS
POINT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. BOUNDARY SHOULD DRIVE THROUGH THE
REGION BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO BRING EVEN
DRIER WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH TEMPERATURE MODERATION UNDER
GRADUAL 85H WARMING.

MODELS CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON BOTH LEAD SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY HEADING
EAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER IN THE WEEK IN ADVANCE OF
MORE PRONOUNCED DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM 5H TROFFINESS BY THURSDAY.
ALTHOUGH PHASING LOOKS RATHER UNLIKELY...APPEARS DEEPENING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF WILL BE IN PLACE ALLOWING AN INITIAL SHOT OF
SHOWERS TO GET LIFTED NORTH OUT OF THE DAMPENING SOUTHERN WAVE. THIS
ALONG A SURFACE WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN TROUGH/COLD FRONT THAT
SHOULD ENHANCE LIFT ESPCLY WESTERN HALF LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY EVENING. THUS RUNNING WITH MAINLY LOW POPS MOUNTAINS WED NIGHT
AND HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELYS THURSDAY GIVEN THE OVERRUNNING NATURE TO THE
WARM ADVECTION PRECIP. WEAK COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY FRIDAY BUT
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR THROUGH THE REGION THE BOUNDARY MAKES IT IF AT
ALL GIVEN DIFFERING GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS OF MORE ENERGY SPILLING INTO THE
UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST. FOR NOW WILL RUN WITH CHANCE POPS ON FRIDAY
WHICH SUPPORTS THE PREVIOUS SLOWER EC SOLUTION.

TEMPS TO REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY MID OR LATE WEEK GIVEN
FLATTER FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION BY WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY WHEN SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD 60S/70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 740 PM EDT FRIDAY...

DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL SWEEP EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
SHIFTING THE WINDS TO GUSTY NORTHWEST AND BRINGING SHARPLY COLDER
TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. A STRONG SHORT WAVE
ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN SOME AREAS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN
ADDITION...NE-E FLOW EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT IS SUPPORTING A CONTINUATION OF IFR-LIFR ONCE THIS
PASSES...DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE AND CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE. MEANWHILE...UPSLOPE
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND PREVAIL
INTO MID-DAY SATURDAY. HRRR/GFS SUPPORT THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS/DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST OF THE REGION IN THE 06Z-08Z TIME
FRAME WEST TO EAST. -RA WILL BE POSSIBLE EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES...WHILE UPSLOPE -SHSN WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS UNTIL
THE TROUGH PASSES. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH SHOULD PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION SAT...THUS
SUPPORTING CLEARING ACROSS EVEN THE MOUNTAINS BY SAT AFTERNOON
WITH A VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. WINDS WILL BECOME NW BEHIND THE
FRONT AT SPEEDS OF 10-12KTS WITH GUSTS 20-23KTS...CONTINUING AT OR
NEAR SIMILAR SPEEDS THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH 14Z...THEN MEDIUM TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CIGS.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MOSTLY VFR VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE
TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION THROUGH THE TAF
VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEHIND
A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SOME MVFR CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH AN ALBERTA CLIPPER MON AS
WELL.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 455 AM EDT FRIDAY...

RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 29:

ROANOKE......19 IN 1982
BLACKSBURG...17 IN 2001
LYNCHBURG....23 IN 1923 AND 1982
DANVILLE.....23 IN 1966
BLUEFIELD....19 IN 1966 AND 1982
LEWISBURG....18 IN 1983

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK/WERT
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...KK/RAB
CLIMATE...AMS/SK




000
FXUS61 KRNK 280008
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
808 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MOISTURE APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 735 PM EDT FRIDAY...

MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST
HOURLY TRENDS IN TEMPERATURE...DEW POINTS...AND CLOUDS...AND
ELIMINATED THREAT OF ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AFTER 5 AM ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA BASED ON LATEST WRF AND
HRRR MODEL OUTPUT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO BE ON
TARGET...SO NO NEED TO MAKE ANY ADDITIONAL THERMAL ADJUSTMENTS.

LATEST SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW WEAK SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING EAST
THROUGH EASTERN TN...WITH SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES/SHOWERS MOVING
NORTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE EAST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM
NEAR MOUNT AIRY NC TO NEAR LYNCHBURG VA. BACK EDGE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE...WITH ALL AREAS IN
PIEDMONT EXPECTED TO BE PRECIPITATION FREE NO LATER THAN 5 AM
SATURDAY MORNING. ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR WILL LIKELY COME TOO LATE
TO SEE ANY CHANGE-OVER TO SNOW EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

FURTHER WEST...ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR ON BACKSIDE OF THE SHORT WAVE
SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING UPSLOPING LIGHT SNOWS ACROSS THE
WESTERN FLANKS OF THE APPALACHIANS. AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION
IS STILL QUITE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN
PREFERRED UPSLOPE AREAS...SUCH AS WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY
WV...AND THIS THREAT ALREADY WELL ADVERTISED IN EXISTING
FORECAST.

AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE APPALACHIANS
TONIGHT AND SLIDE EAST ON SATURDAY. ANA-FRONT PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL
PUSH INTO THE REGION SLOWLY ENDING THE PRECIPITATION IN THE EAST.
A SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH TONIGHT.
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL COMBINE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND NORTHWEST
FLOW TO PRODUCE UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. A LIGHT COATING UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW MAY BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY IN THE NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FAVORED
LOCATIONS. IN CONTRAST... THE DOWNSLOPING WINDS ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL GENERATE CLEARING ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT.
SHAPED CLOUD COVER TONIGHT TOWARDS THE CANADIAN TONIGHT. INITIALLY
LEANED POPS TOWARDS A BLEND OF HRRR...HIRESW-ARW AND NAM THEN MORE
TOWARDS GFS WHICH SEEMS TO CAPTURES UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION IN THE
WEST BETTER TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TEENS IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE
PIEDMONT.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SATURDAY
AND BRING AN END TO ANY LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE FAR
WESTERN SLOPES. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE CHILLY WITH READINGS
FROM THE MID 20S IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT FRIDAY...

VERY COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ABOUT OVERHEAD THE
MOUNTAINS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH OPTIMAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND VERY DRY AIR. GIVEN
85H TEMPS OF BETWEEN -10 AND -15C SHOULD SEE TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE
TEENS IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S EAST PENDING
JUST HOW FAST WINDS DECOUPLE. THUS TRENDED ON THE COLD SIDE OF MOS
WHICH WILL PUSH LOWS TO AT OR BELOW RECORD LEVELS BY EARLY SUNDAY IN
SPOTS PER THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING QUICK CHANGES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
PASSING SHORTWAVE RIDGING BEING REPLACED BY ANOTHER UPSTREAM 5H TROUGH
AND SUBSEQUENT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY. FAST REBOUND WITH WARM
ADVECTION DEVELOPING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING HIGH ON SUNDAY
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RECOVER TO THE UPPER 40S-MID 50S GIVEN HEATING OF
DRY AIR DESPITE SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS LATE. PRE-FRONTAL
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT WILL ALSO ARRIVE PRETTY QUICK SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH MODELS SHOWING AN AXIS OF SHOWERS PUSHING ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS BY MIDNIGHT AND THEN EXITING TO THE SOUTH BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SUPPORTS GOING FROM BASICALLY DRY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING
TO HIGH CHANCE OR LOW LIKELYS MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND CHANCES SOUTH-
WEST MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT LOW TEMPS TO REMAIN JUST WARM
ENOUGH...MOSTLY 30S TO SEE MOSTLY LIQUID PTYPE WITH ONLY THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE NW SEEING THINGS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS.
WINDS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AN ISSUE GIVEN SQUEEZING OF THE
GRADIENT WITH THE FRONT BUT FOR NOW APPEARS SHOULD STAY MOSTLY BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS GIVEN A MARGINAL 85H JET AND UNIMPRESSIVE PRESSURE
RISES. OTRW HIGHS MONDAY MOSTLY 50S WEST TO MID/UPPER 60S EAST PER
STRONG DOWNSLOPE AND MORE SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT FRIDAY...

NW FLOW ALOFT PER CONTINUED UPPER TROFFINESS ACROSS THE NE STATES WILL
KEEP PERIODIC PIECES OF CLIPPER ENERGY FLOWING SE INTO MIDWEEK WITH
PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NW WITH A STRONGER FRONT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED SO THINKING MAY STAY DRY WITH THE
CORE OF THESE FEATURES WELL NORTH SUPPORTING ONLY ISOLATED POPS AT THIS
POINT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. BOUNDARY SHOULD DRIVE THROUGH THE
REGION BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO BRING EVEN
DRIER WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH TEMPERATURE MODERATION UNDER
GRADUAL 85H WARMING.

MODELS CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON BOTH LEAD SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY HEADING
EAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER IN THE WEEK IN ADVANCE OF
MORE PRONOUNCED DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM 5H TROFFINESS BY THURSDAY.
ALTHOUGH PHASING LOOKS RATHER UNLIKELY...APPEARS DEEPENING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF WILL BE IN PLACE ALLOWING AN INITIAL SHOT OF
SHOWERS TO GET LIFTED NORTH OUT OF THE DAMPENING SOUTHERN WAVE. THIS
ALONG A SURFACE WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN TROUGH/COLD FRONT THAT
SHOULD ENHANCE LIFT ESPCLY WESTERN HALF LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY EVENING. THUS RUNNING WITH MAINLY LOW POPS MOUNTAINS WED NIGHT
AND HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELYS THURSDAY GIVEN THE OVERRUNNING NATURE TO THE
WARM ADVECTION PRECIP. WEAK COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY FRIDAY BUT
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR THROUGH THE REGION THE BOUNDARY MAKES IT IF AT
ALL GIVEN DIFFERING GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS OF MORE ENERGY SPILLING INTO THE
UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST. FOR NOW WILL RUN WITH CHANCE POPS ON FRIDAY
WHICH SUPPORTS THE PREVIOUS SLOWER EC SOLUTION.

TEMPS TO REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY MID OR LATE WEEK GIVEN
FLATTER FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION BY WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY WHEN SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD 60S/70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 740 PM EDT FRIDAY...

DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL SWEEP EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
SHIFTING THE WINDS TO GUSTY NORTHWEST AND BRINGING SHARPLY COLDER
TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. A STRONG SHORT WAVE
ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN SOME AREAS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN
ADDITION...NE-E FLOW EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT IS SUPPORTING A CONTINUATION OF IFR-LIFR ONCE THIS
PASSES...DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE AND CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE. MEANWHILE...UPSLOPE
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND PREVAIL
INTO MID-DAY SATURDAY. HRRR/GFS SUPPORT THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS/DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST OF THE REGION IN THE 06Z-08Z TIME
FRAME WEST TO EAST. -RA WILL BE POSSIBLE EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES...WHILE UPSLOPE -SHSN WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS UNTIL
THE TROUGH PASSES. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH SHOULD PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION SAT...THUS
SUPPORTING CLEARING ACROSS EVEN THE MOUNTAINS BY SAT AFTERNOON
WITH A VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. WINDS WILL BECOME NW BEHIND THE
FRONT AT SPEEDS OF 10-12KTS WITH GUSTS 20-23KTS...CONTINUING AT OR
NEAR SIMILAR SPEEDS THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH 14Z...THEN MEDIUM TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CIGS.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MOSTLY VFR VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE
TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION THROUGH THE TAF
VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEHIND
A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SOME MVFR CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH AN ALBERTA CLIPPER MON AS
WELL.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 455 AM EDT FRIDAY...

RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 29:

ROANOKE......19 IN 1982
BLACKSBURG...17 IN 2001
LYNCHBURG....23 IN 1923 AND 1982
DANVILLE.....23 IN 1966
BLUEFIELD....19 IN 1966 AND 1982
LEWISBURG....18 IN 1983

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK/WERT
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...KK/RAB
CLIMATE...AMS/SK



000
FXUS61 KRNK 272337
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
737 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MOISTURE APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 735 PM EDT FRIDAY...

MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST
HOURLY TRENDS IN TEMPERATURE...DEW POINTS...AND CLOUDS...AND
ELIMINATED THREAT OF ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AFTER 5 AM ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA BASED ON LATEST WRF AND
HRRR MODEL OUTPUT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO BE ON
TARGET...SO NO NEED TO MAKE ANY ADDITIONAL THERMAL ADJUSTMENTS.

LATEST SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW WEAK SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING EAST
THROUGH EASTERN TN...WITH SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES/SHOWERS MOVING
NORTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE EAST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM
NEAR MOUNT AIRY NC TO NEAR LYNCHBURG VA. BACK EDGE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE...WITH ALL AREAS IN
PIEDMONT EXPECTED TO BE PRECIPITATION FREE NO LATER THAN 5 AM
SATURDAY MORNING. ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR WILL LIKELY COME TOO LATE
TO SEE ANY CHANGE-OVER TO SNOW EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

FURTHER WEST...ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR ON BACKSIDE OF THE SHORT WAVE
SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING UPSLOPING LIGHT SNOWS ACROSS THE
WESTERN FLANKS OF THE APPALACHIANS. AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION
IS STILL QUITE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN
PREFERRED UPSLOPE AREAS...SUCH AS WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY
WV...AND THIS THREAT ALREADY WELL ADVERTISED IN EXISTING
FORECAST.

AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE APPALACHIANS
TONIGHT AND SLIDE EAST ON SATURDAY. ANA-FRONT PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL
PUSH INTO THE REGION SLOWLY ENDING THE PRECIPITATION IN THE EAST.
A SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH TONIGHT.
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL COMBINE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND NORTHWEST
FLOW TO PRODUCE UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. A LIGHT COATING UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW MAY BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY IN THE NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FAVORED
LOCATIONS. IN CONTRAST... THE DOWNSLOPING WINDS ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL GENERATE CLEARING ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT.
SHAPED CLOUD COVER TONIGHT TOWARDS THE CANADIAN TONIGHT. INITIALLY
LEANED POPS TOWARDS A BLEND OF HRRR...HIRESW-ARW AND NAM THEN MORE
TOWARDS GFS WHICH SEEMS TO CAPTURES UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION IN THE
WEST BETTER TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TEENS IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE
PIEDMONT.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SATURDAY
AND BRING AN END TO ANY LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE FAR
WESTERN SLOPES. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE CHILLY WITH READINGS
FROM THE MID 20S IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT FRIDAY...

VERY COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ABOUT OVERHEAD THE
MOUNTAINS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH OPTIMAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND VERY DRY AIR. GIVEN
85H TEMPS OF BETWEEN -10 AND -15C SHOULD SEE TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE
TEENS IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S EAST PENDING
JUST HOW FAST WINDS DECOUPLE. THUS TRENDED ON THE COLD SIDE OF MOS
WHICH WILL PUSH LOWS TO AT OR BELOW RECORD LEVELS BY EARLY SUNDAY IN
SPOTS PER THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING QUICK CHANGES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
PASSING SHORTWAVE RIDGING BEING REPLACED BY ANOTHER UPSTREAM 5H TROUGH
AND SUBSEQUENT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY. FAST REBOUND WITH WARM
ADVECTION DEVELOPING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING HIGH ON SUNDAY
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RECOVER TO THE UPPER 40S-MID 50S GIVEN HEATING OF
DRY AIR DESPITE SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS LATE. PRE-FRONTAL
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT WILL ALSO ARRIVE PRETTY QUICK SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH MODELS SHOWING AN AXIS OF SHOWERS PUSHING ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS BY MIDNIGHT AND THEN EXITING TO THE SOUTH BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SUPPORTS GOING FROM BASICALLY DRY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING
TO HIGH CHANCE OR LOW LIKELYS MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND CHANCES SOUTH-
WEST MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT LOW TEMPS TO REMAIN JUST WARM
ENOUGH...MOSTLY 30S TO SEE MOSTLY LIQUID PTYPE WITH ONLY THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE NW SEEING THINGS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS.
WINDS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AN ISSUE GIVEN SQUEEZING OF THE
GRADIENT WITH THE FRONT BUT FOR NOW APPEARS SHOULD STAY MOSTLY BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS GIVEN A MARGINAL 85H JET AND UNIMPRESSIVE PRESSURE
RISES. OTRW HIGHS MONDAY MOSTLY 50S WEST TO MID/UPPER 60S EAST PER
STRONG DOWNSLOPE AND MORE SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT FRIDAY...

NW FLOW ALOFT PER CONTINUED UPPER TROFFINESS ACROSS THE NE STATES WILL
KEEP PERIODIC PIECES OF CLIPPER ENERGY FLOWING SE INTO MIDWEEK WITH
PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NW WITH A STRONGER FRONT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED SO THINKING MAY STAY DRY WITH THE
CORE OF THESE FEATURES WELL NORTH SUPPORTING ONLY ISOLATED POPS AT THIS
POINT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. BOUNDARY SHOULD DRIVE THROUGH THE
REGION BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO BRING EVEN
DRIER WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH TEMPERATURE MODERATION UNDER
GRADUAL 85H WARMING.

MODELS CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON BOTH LEAD SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY HEADING
EAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER IN THE WEEK IN ADVANCE OF
MORE PRONOUNCED DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM 5H TROFFINESS BY THURSDAY.
ALTHOUGH PHASING LOOKS RATHER UNLIKELY...APPEARS DEEPENING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF WILL BE IN PLACE ALLOWING AN INITIAL SHOT OF
SHOWERS TO GET LIFTED NORTH OUT OF THE DAMPENING SOUTHERN WAVE. THIS
ALONG A SURFACE WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN TROUGH/COLD FRONT THAT
SHOULD ENHANCE LIFT ESPCLY WESTERN HALF LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY EVENING. THUS RUNNING WITH MAINLY LOW POPS MOUNTAINS WED NIGHT
AND HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELYS THURSDAY GIVEN THE OVERRUNNING NATURE TO THE
WARM ADVECTION PRECIP. WEAK COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY FRIDAY BUT
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR THROUGH THE REGION THE BOUNDARY MAKES IT IF AT
ALL GIVEN DIFFERING GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS OF MORE ENERGY SPILLING INTO THE
UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST. FOR NOW WILL RUN WITH CHANCE POPS ON FRIDAY
WHICH SUPPORTS THE PREVIOUS SLOWER EC SOLUTION.

TEMPS TO REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY MID OR LATE WEEK GIVEN
FLATTER FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION BY WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY WHEN SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD 60S/70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 152 PM EDT FRIDAY...

SCT TO BKN MVFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
PATCHES OF MVFR/ISOLD IFR CONDITIONS IN THE EAST WITH BACK-EDGE
OF ANA-FRONT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AS THE RAIN ENDS. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN UPSLOPE
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...WHILE
DOWNSLOPING EAST OF MOUNTAINS WILL PRODUCE DRYING TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT ON WESTERN SLOPE AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.

VFR CONDITIONS AREA EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEHIND
A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 455 AM EDT FRIDAY...

RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 29:

ROANOKE......19 IN 1982
BLACKSBURG...17 IN 2001
LYNCHBURG....23 IN 1923 AND 1982
DANVILLE.....23 IN 1966
BLUEFIELD....19 IN 1966 AND 1982
LEWISBURG....18 IN 1983

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK/WERT
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...AMS/KK
CLIMATE...AMS/SK




000
FXUS61 KRNK 272337
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
737 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MOISTURE APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 735 PM EDT FRIDAY...

MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST
HOURLY TRENDS IN TEMPERATURE...DEW POINTS...AND CLOUDS...AND
ELIMINATED THREAT OF ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AFTER 5 AM ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA BASED ON LATEST WRF AND
HRRR MODEL OUTPUT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO BE ON
TARGET...SO NO NEED TO MAKE ANY ADDITIONAL THERMAL ADJUSTMENTS.

LATEST SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW WEAK SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING EAST
THROUGH EASTERN TN...WITH SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES/SHOWERS MOVING
NORTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE EAST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM
NEAR MOUNT AIRY NC TO NEAR LYNCHBURG VA. BACK EDGE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE...WITH ALL AREAS IN
PIEDMONT EXPECTED TO BE PRECIPITATION FREE NO LATER THAN 5 AM
SATURDAY MORNING. ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR WILL LIKELY COME TOO LATE
TO SEE ANY CHANGE-OVER TO SNOW EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

FURTHER WEST...ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR ON BACKSIDE OF THE SHORT WAVE
SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING UPSLOPING LIGHT SNOWS ACROSS THE
WESTERN FLANKS OF THE APPALACHIANS. AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION
IS STILL QUITE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN
PREFERRED UPSLOPE AREAS...SUCH AS WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY
WV...AND THIS THREAT ALREADY WELL ADVERTISED IN EXISTING
FORECAST.

AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE APPALACHIANS
TONIGHT AND SLIDE EAST ON SATURDAY. ANA-FRONT PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL
PUSH INTO THE REGION SLOWLY ENDING THE PRECIPITATION IN THE EAST.
A SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH TONIGHT.
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL COMBINE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND NORTHWEST
FLOW TO PRODUCE UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. A LIGHT COATING UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW MAY BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY IN THE NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FAVORED
LOCATIONS. IN CONTRAST... THE DOWNSLOPING WINDS ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL GENERATE CLEARING ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT.
SHAPED CLOUD COVER TONIGHT TOWARDS THE CANADIAN TONIGHT. INITIALLY
LEANED POPS TOWARDS A BLEND OF HRRR...HIRESW-ARW AND NAM THEN MORE
TOWARDS GFS WHICH SEEMS TO CAPTURES UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION IN THE
WEST BETTER TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TEENS IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE
PIEDMONT.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SATURDAY
AND BRING AN END TO ANY LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE FAR
WESTERN SLOPES. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE CHILLY WITH READINGS
FROM THE MID 20S IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT FRIDAY...

VERY COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ABOUT OVERHEAD THE
MOUNTAINS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH OPTIMAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND VERY DRY AIR. GIVEN
85H TEMPS OF BETWEEN -10 AND -15C SHOULD SEE TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE
TEENS IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S EAST PENDING
JUST HOW FAST WINDS DECOUPLE. THUS TRENDED ON THE COLD SIDE OF MOS
WHICH WILL PUSH LOWS TO AT OR BELOW RECORD LEVELS BY EARLY SUNDAY IN
SPOTS PER THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING QUICK CHANGES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
PASSING SHORTWAVE RIDGING BEING REPLACED BY ANOTHER UPSTREAM 5H TROUGH
AND SUBSEQUENT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY. FAST REBOUND WITH WARM
ADVECTION DEVELOPING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING HIGH ON SUNDAY
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RECOVER TO THE UPPER 40S-MID 50S GIVEN HEATING OF
DRY AIR DESPITE SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS LATE. PRE-FRONTAL
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT WILL ALSO ARRIVE PRETTY QUICK SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH MODELS SHOWING AN AXIS OF SHOWERS PUSHING ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS BY MIDNIGHT AND THEN EXITING TO THE SOUTH BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SUPPORTS GOING FROM BASICALLY DRY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING
TO HIGH CHANCE OR LOW LIKELYS MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND CHANCES SOUTH-
WEST MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT LOW TEMPS TO REMAIN JUST WARM
ENOUGH...MOSTLY 30S TO SEE MOSTLY LIQUID PTYPE WITH ONLY THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE NW SEEING THINGS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS.
WINDS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AN ISSUE GIVEN SQUEEZING OF THE
GRADIENT WITH THE FRONT BUT FOR NOW APPEARS SHOULD STAY MOSTLY BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS GIVEN A MARGINAL 85H JET AND UNIMPRESSIVE PRESSURE
RISES. OTRW HIGHS MONDAY MOSTLY 50S WEST TO MID/UPPER 60S EAST PER
STRONG DOWNSLOPE AND MORE SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT FRIDAY...

NW FLOW ALOFT PER CONTINUED UPPER TROFFINESS ACROSS THE NE STATES WILL
KEEP PERIODIC PIECES OF CLIPPER ENERGY FLOWING SE INTO MIDWEEK WITH
PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NW WITH A STRONGER FRONT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED SO THINKING MAY STAY DRY WITH THE
CORE OF THESE FEATURES WELL NORTH SUPPORTING ONLY ISOLATED POPS AT THIS
POINT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. BOUNDARY SHOULD DRIVE THROUGH THE
REGION BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO BRING EVEN
DRIER WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH TEMPERATURE MODERATION UNDER
GRADUAL 85H WARMING.

MODELS CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON BOTH LEAD SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY HEADING
EAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER IN THE WEEK IN ADVANCE OF
MORE PRONOUNCED DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM 5H TROFFINESS BY THURSDAY.
ALTHOUGH PHASING LOOKS RATHER UNLIKELY...APPEARS DEEPENING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF WILL BE IN PLACE ALLOWING AN INITIAL SHOT OF
SHOWERS TO GET LIFTED NORTH OUT OF THE DAMPENING SOUTHERN WAVE. THIS
ALONG A SURFACE WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN TROUGH/COLD FRONT THAT
SHOULD ENHANCE LIFT ESPCLY WESTERN HALF LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY EVENING. THUS RUNNING WITH MAINLY LOW POPS MOUNTAINS WED NIGHT
AND HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELYS THURSDAY GIVEN THE OVERRUNNING NATURE TO THE
WARM ADVECTION PRECIP. WEAK COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY FRIDAY BUT
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR THROUGH THE REGION THE BOUNDARY MAKES IT IF AT
ALL GIVEN DIFFERING GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS OF MORE ENERGY SPILLING INTO THE
UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST. FOR NOW WILL RUN WITH CHANCE POPS ON FRIDAY
WHICH SUPPORTS THE PREVIOUS SLOWER EC SOLUTION.

TEMPS TO REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY MID OR LATE WEEK GIVEN
FLATTER FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION BY WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY WHEN SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD 60S/70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 152 PM EDT FRIDAY...

SCT TO BKN MVFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
PATCHES OF MVFR/ISOLD IFR CONDITIONS IN THE EAST WITH BACK-EDGE
OF ANA-FRONT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AS THE RAIN ENDS. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN UPSLOPE
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...WHILE
DOWNSLOPING EAST OF MOUNTAINS WILL PRODUCE DRYING TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT ON WESTERN SLOPE AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.

VFR CONDITIONS AREA EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEHIND
A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 455 AM EDT FRIDAY...

RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 29:

ROANOKE......19 IN 1982
BLACKSBURG...17 IN 2001
LYNCHBURG....23 IN 1923 AND 1982
DANVILLE.....23 IN 1966
BLUEFIELD....19 IN 1966 AND 1982
LEWISBURG....18 IN 1983

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK/WERT
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...AMS/KK
CLIMATE...AMS/SK



000
FXUS61 KRNK 272337
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
737 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MOISTURE APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 735 PM EDT FRIDAY...

MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST
HOURLY TRENDS IN TEMPERATURE...DEW POINTS...AND CLOUDS...AND
ELIMINATED THREAT OF ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AFTER 5 AM ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA BASED ON LATEST WRF AND
HRRR MODEL OUTPUT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO BE ON
TARGET...SO NO NEED TO MAKE ANY ADDITIONAL THERMAL ADJUSTMENTS.

LATEST SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW WEAK SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING EAST
THROUGH EASTERN TN...WITH SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES/SHOWERS MOVING
NORTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE EAST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM
NEAR MOUNT AIRY NC TO NEAR LYNCHBURG VA. BACK EDGE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE...WITH ALL AREAS IN
PIEDMONT EXPECTED TO BE PRECIPITATION FREE NO LATER THAN 5 AM
SATURDAY MORNING. ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR WILL LIKELY COME TOO LATE
TO SEE ANY CHANGE-OVER TO SNOW EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

FURTHER WEST...ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR ON BACKSIDE OF THE SHORT WAVE
SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING UPSLOPING LIGHT SNOWS ACROSS THE
WESTERN FLANKS OF THE APPALACHIANS. AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION
IS STILL QUITE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN
PREFERRED UPSLOPE AREAS...SUCH AS WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY
WV...AND THIS THREAT ALREADY WELL ADVERTISED IN EXISTING
FORECAST.

AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE APPALACHIANS
TONIGHT AND SLIDE EAST ON SATURDAY. ANA-FRONT PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL
PUSH INTO THE REGION SLOWLY ENDING THE PRECIPITATION IN THE EAST.
A SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH TONIGHT.
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL COMBINE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND NORTHWEST
FLOW TO PRODUCE UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. A LIGHT COATING UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW MAY BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY IN THE NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FAVORED
LOCATIONS. IN CONTRAST... THE DOWNSLOPING WINDS ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL GENERATE CLEARING ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT.
SHAPED CLOUD COVER TONIGHT TOWARDS THE CANADIAN TONIGHT. INITIALLY
LEANED POPS TOWARDS A BLEND OF HRRR...HIRESW-ARW AND NAM THEN MORE
TOWARDS GFS WHICH SEEMS TO CAPTURES UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION IN THE
WEST BETTER TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TEENS IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE
PIEDMONT.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SATURDAY
AND BRING AN END TO ANY LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE FAR
WESTERN SLOPES. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE CHILLY WITH READINGS
FROM THE MID 20S IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT FRIDAY...

VERY COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ABOUT OVERHEAD THE
MOUNTAINS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH OPTIMAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND VERY DRY AIR. GIVEN
85H TEMPS OF BETWEEN -10 AND -15C SHOULD SEE TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE
TEENS IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S EAST PENDING
JUST HOW FAST WINDS DECOUPLE. THUS TRENDED ON THE COLD SIDE OF MOS
WHICH WILL PUSH LOWS TO AT OR BELOW RECORD LEVELS BY EARLY SUNDAY IN
SPOTS PER THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING QUICK CHANGES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
PASSING SHORTWAVE RIDGING BEING REPLACED BY ANOTHER UPSTREAM 5H TROUGH
AND SUBSEQUENT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY. FAST REBOUND WITH WARM
ADVECTION DEVELOPING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING HIGH ON SUNDAY
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RECOVER TO THE UPPER 40S-MID 50S GIVEN HEATING OF
DRY AIR DESPITE SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS LATE. PRE-FRONTAL
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT WILL ALSO ARRIVE PRETTY QUICK SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH MODELS SHOWING AN AXIS OF SHOWERS PUSHING ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS BY MIDNIGHT AND THEN EXITING TO THE SOUTH BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SUPPORTS GOING FROM BASICALLY DRY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING
TO HIGH CHANCE OR LOW LIKELYS MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND CHANCES SOUTH-
WEST MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT LOW TEMPS TO REMAIN JUST WARM
ENOUGH...MOSTLY 30S TO SEE MOSTLY LIQUID PTYPE WITH ONLY THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE NW SEEING THINGS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS.
WINDS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AN ISSUE GIVEN SQUEEZING OF THE
GRADIENT WITH THE FRONT BUT FOR NOW APPEARS SHOULD STAY MOSTLY BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS GIVEN A MARGINAL 85H JET AND UNIMPRESSIVE PRESSURE
RISES. OTRW HIGHS MONDAY MOSTLY 50S WEST TO MID/UPPER 60S EAST PER
STRONG DOWNSLOPE AND MORE SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT FRIDAY...

NW FLOW ALOFT PER CONTINUED UPPER TROFFINESS ACROSS THE NE STATES WILL
KEEP PERIODIC PIECES OF CLIPPER ENERGY FLOWING SE INTO MIDWEEK WITH
PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NW WITH A STRONGER FRONT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED SO THINKING MAY STAY DRY WITH THE
CORE OF THESE FEATURES WELL NORTH SUPPORTING ONLY ISOLATED POPS AT THIS
POINT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. BOUNDARY SHOULD DRIVE THROUGH THE
REGION BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO BRING EVEN
DRIER WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH TEMPERATURE MODERATION UNDER
GRADUAL 85H WARMING.

MODELS CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON BOTH LEAD SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY HEADING
EAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER IN THE WEEK IN ADVANCE OF
MORE PRONOUNCED DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM 5H TROFFINESS BY THURSDAY.
ALTHOUGH PHASING LOOKS RATHER UNLIKELY...APPEARS DEEPENING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF WILL BE IN PLACE ALLOWING AN INITIAL SHOT OF
SHOWERS TO GET LIFTED NORTH OUT OF THE DAMPENING SOUTHERN WAVE. THIS
ALONG A SURFACE WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN TROUGH/COLD FRONT THAT
SHOULD ENHANCE LIFT ESPCLY WESTERN HALF LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY EVENING. THUS RUNNING WITH MAINLY LOW POPS MOUNTAINS WED NIGHT
AND HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELYS THURSDAY GIVEN THE OVERRUNNING NATURE TO THE
WARM ADVECTION PRECIP. WEAK COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY FRIDAY BUT
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR THROUGH THE REGION THE BOUNDARY MAKES IT IF AT
ALL GIVEN DIFFERING GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS OF MORE ENERGY SPILLING INTO THE
UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST. FOR NOW WILL RUN WITH CHANCE POPS ON FRIDAY
WHICH SUPPORTS THE PREVIOUS SLOWER EC SOLUTION.

TEMPS TO REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY MID OR LATE WEEK GIVEN
FLATTER FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION BY WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY WHEN SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD 60S/70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 152 PM EDT FRIDAY...

SCT TO BKN MVFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
PATCHES OF MVFR/ISOLD IFR CONDITIONS IN THE EAST WITH BACK-EDGE
OF ANA-FRONT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AS THE RAIN ENDS. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN UPSLOPE
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...WHILE
DOWNSLOPING EAST OF MOUNTAINS WILL PRODUCE DRYING TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT ON WESTERN SLOPE AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.

VFR CONDITIONS AREA EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEHIND
A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 455 AM EDT FRIDAY...

RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 29:

ROANOKE......19 IN 1982
BLACKSBURG...17 IN 2001
LYNCHBURG....23 IN 1923 AND 1982
DANVILLE.....23 IN 1966
BLUEFIELD....19 IN 1966 AND 1982
LEWISBURG....18 IN 1983

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK/WERT
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...AMS/KK
CLIMATE...AMS/SK




000
FXUS61 KRNK 272337
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
737 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MOISTURE APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 735 PM EDT FRIDAY...

MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST
HOURLY TRENDS IN TEMPERATURE...DEW POINTS...AND CLOUDS...AND
ELIMINATED THREAT OF ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AFTER 5 AM ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA BASED ON LATEST WRF AND
HRRR MODEL OUTPUT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO BE ON
TARGET...SO NO NEED TO MAKE ANY ADDITIONAL THERMAL ADJUSTMENTS.

LATEST SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW WEAK SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING EAST
THROUGH EASTERN TN...WITH SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES/SHOWERS MOVING
NORTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE EAST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM
NEAR MOUNT AIRY NC TO NEAR LYNCHBURG VA. BACK EDGE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE...WITH ALL AREAS IN
PIEDMONT EXPECTED TO BE PRECIPITATION FREE NO LATER THAN 5 AM
SATURDAY MORNING. ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR WILL LIKELY COME TOO LATE
TO SEE ANY CHANGE-OVER TO SNOW EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

FURTHER WEST...ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR ON BACKSIDE OF THE SHORT WAVE
SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING UPSLOPING LIGHT SNOWS ACROSS THE
WESTERN FLANKS OF THE APPALACHIANS. AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION
IS STILL QUITE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN
PREFERRED UPSLOPE AREAS...SUCH AS WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY
WV...AND THIS THREAT ALREADY WELL ADVERTISED IN EXISTING
FORECAST.

AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE APPALACHIANS
TONIGHT AND SLIDE EAST ON SATURDAY. ANA-FRONT PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL
PUSH INTO THE REGION SLOWLY ENDING THE PRECIPITATION IN THE EAST.
A SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH TONIGHT.
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL COMBINE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND NORTHWEST
FLOW TO PRODUCE UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. A LIGHT COATING UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW MAY BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY IN THE NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FAVORED
LOCATIONS. IN CONTRAST... THE DOWNSLOPING WINDS ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL GENERATE CLEARING ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT.
SHAPED CLOUD COVER TONIGHT TOWARDS THE CANADIAN TONIGHT. INITIALLY
LEANED POPS TOWARDS A BLEND OF HRRR...HIRESW-ARW AND NAM THEN MORE
TOWARDS GFS WHICH SEEMS TO CAPTURES UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION IN THE
WEST BETTER TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TEENS IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE
PIEDMONT.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SATURDAY
AND BRING AN END TO ANY LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE FAR
WESTERN SLOPES. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE CHILLY WITH READINGS
FROM THE MID 20S IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT FRIDAY...

VERY COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ABOUT OVERHEAD THE
MOUNTAINS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH OPTIMAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND VERY DRY AIR. GIVEN
85H TEMPS OF BETWEEN -10 AND -15C SHOULD SEE TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE
TEENS IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S EAST PENDING
JUST HOW FAST WINDS DECOUPLE. THUS TRENDED ON THE COLD SIDE OF MOS
WHICH WILL PUSH LOWS TO AT OR BELOW RECORD LEVELS BY EARLY SUNDAY IN
SPOTS PER THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING QUICK CHANGES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
PASSING SHORTWAVE RIDGING BEING REPLACED BY ANOTHER UPSTREAM 5H TROUGH
AND SUBSEQUENT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY. FAST REBOUND WITH WARM
ADVECTION DEVELOPING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING HIGH ON SUNDAY
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RECOVER TO THE UPPER 40S-MID 50S GIVEN HEATING OF
DRY AIR DESPITE SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS LATE. PRE-FRONTAL
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT WILL ALSO ARRIVE PRETTY QUICK SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH MODELS SHOWING AN AXIS OF SHOWERS PUSHING ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS BY MIDNIGHT AND THEN EXITING TO THE SOUTH BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SUPPORTS GOING FROM BASICALLY DRY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING
TO HIGH CHANCE OR LOW LIKELYS MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND CHANCES SOUTH-
WEST MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT LOW TEMPS TO REMAIN JUST WARM
ENOUGH...MOSTLY 30S TO SEE MOSTLY LIQUID PTYPE WITH ONLY THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE NW SEEING THINGS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS.
WINDS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AN ISSUE GIVEN SQUEEZING OF THE
GRADIENT WITH THE FRONT BUT FOR NOW APPEARS SHOULD STAY MOSTLY BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS GIVEN A MARGINAL 85H JET AND UNIMPRESSIVE PRESSURE
RISES. OTRW HIGHS MONDAY MOSTLY 50S WEST TO MID/UPPER 60S EAST PER
STRONG DOWNSLOPE AND MORE SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT FRIDAY...

NW FLOW ALOFT PER CONTINUED UPPER TROFFINESS ACROSS THE NE STATES WILL
KEEP PERIODIC PIECES OF CLIPPER ENERGY FLOWING SE INTO MIDWEEK WITH
PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NW WITH A STRONGER FRONT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED SO THINKING MAY STAY DRY WITH THE
CORE OF THESE FEATURES WELL NORTH SUPPORTING ONLY ISOLATED POPS AT THIS
POINT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. BOUNDARY SHOULD DRIVE THROUGH THE
REGION BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO BRING EVEN
DRIER WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH TEMPERATURE MODERATION UNDER
GRADUAL 85H WARMING.

MODELS CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON BOTH LEAD SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY HEADING
EAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER IN THE WEEK IN ADVANCE OF
MORE PRONOUNCED DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM 5H TROFFINESS BY THURSDAY.
ALTHOUGH PHASING LOOKS RATHER UNLIKELY...APPEARS DEEPENING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF WILL BE IN PLACE ALLOWING AN INITIAL SHOT OF
SHOWERS TO GET LIFTED NORTH OUT OF THE DAMPENING SOUTHERN WAVE. THIS
ALONG A SURFACE WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN TROUGH/COLD FRONT THAT
SHOULD ENHANCE LIFT ESPCLY WESTERN HALF LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY EVENING. THUS RUNNING WITH MAINLY LOW POPS MOUNTAINS WED NIGHT
AND HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELYS THURSDAY GIVEN THE OVERRUNNING NATURE TO THE
WARM ADVECTION PRECIP. WEAK COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY FRIDAY BUT
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR THROUGH THE REGION THE BOUNDARY MAKES IT IF AT
ALL GIVEN DIFFERING GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS OF MORE ENERGY SPILLING INTO THE
UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST. FOR NOW WILL RUN WITH CHANCE POPS ON FRIDAY
WHICH SUPPORTS THE PREVIOUS SLOWER EC SOLUTION.

TEMPS TO REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY MID OR LATE WEEK GIVEN
FLATTER FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION BY WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY WHEN SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD 60S/70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 152 PM EDT FRIDAY...

SCT TO BKN MVFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
PATCHES OF MVFR/ISOLD IFR CONDITIONS IN THE EAST WITH BACK-EDGE
OF ANA-FRONT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AS THE RAIN ENDS. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN UPSLOPE
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...WHILE
DOWNSLOPING EAST OF MOUNTAINS WILL PRODUCE DRYING TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT ON WESTERN SLOPE AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.

VFR CONDITIONS AREA EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEHIND
A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 455 AM EDT FRIDAY...

RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 29:

ROANOKE......19 IN 1982
BLACKSBURG...17 IN 2001
LYNCHBURG....23 IN 1923 AND 1982
DANVILLE.....23 IN 1966
BLUEFIELD....19 IN 1966 AND 1982
LEWISBURG....18 IN 1983

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK/WERT
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...AMS/KK
CLIMATE...AMS/SK




000
FXUS61 KRNK 272337
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
737 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MOISTURE APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 735 PM EDT FRIDAY...

MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST
HOURLY TRENDS IN TEMPERATURE...DEW POINTS...AND CLOUDS...AND
ELIMINATED THREAT OF ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AFTER 5 AM ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA BASED ON LATEST WRF AND
HRRR MODEL OUTPUT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO BE ON
TARGET...SO NO NEED TO MAKE ANY ADDITIONAL THERMAL ADJUSTMENTS.

LATEST SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW WEAK SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING EAST
THROUGH EASTERN TN...WITH SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES/SHOWERS MOVING
NORTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE EAST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM
NEAR MOUNT AIRY NC TO NEAR LYNCHBURG VA. BACK EDGE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE...WITH ALL AREAS IN
PIEDMONT EXPECTED TO BE PRECIPITATION FREE NO LATER THAN 5 AM
SATURDAY MORNING. ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR WILL LIKELY COME TOO LATE
TO SEE ANY CHANGE-OVER TO SNOW EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

FURTHER WEST...ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR ON BACKSIDE OF THE SHORT WAVE
SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING UPSLOPING LIGHT SNOWS ACROSS THE
WESTERN FLANKS OF THE APPALACHIANS. AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION
IS STILL QUITE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN
PREFERRED UPSLOPE AREAS...SUCH AS WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY
WV...AND THIS THREAT ALREADY WELL ADVERTISED IN EXISTING
FORECAST.

AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE APPALACHIANS
TONIGHT AND SLIDE EAST ON SATURDAY. ANA-FRONT PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL
PUSH INTO THE REGION SLOWLY ENDING THE PRECIPITATION IN THE EAST.
A SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH TONIGHT.
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL COMBINE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND NORTHWEST
FLOW TO PRODUCE UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. A LIGHT COATING UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW MAY BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY IN THE NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FAVORED
LOCATIONS. IN CONTRAST... THE DOWNSLOPING WINDS ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL GENERATE CLEARING ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT.
SHAPED CLOUD COVER TONIGHT TOWARDS THE CANADIAN TONIGHT. INITIALLY
LEANED POPS TOWARDS A BLEND OF HRRR...HIRESW-ARW AND NAM THEN MORE
TOWARDS GFS WHICH SEEMS TO CAPTURES UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION IN THE
WEST BETTER TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TEENS IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE
PIEDMONT.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SATURDAY
AND BRING AN END TO ANY LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE FAR
WESTERN SLOPES. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE CHILLY WITH READINGS
FROM THE MID 20S IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT FRIDAY...

VERY COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ABOUT OVERHEAD THE
MOUNTAINS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH OPTIMAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND VERY DRY AIR. GIVEN
85H TEMPS OF BETWEEN -10 AND -15C SHOULD SEE TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE
TEENS IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S EAST PENDING
JUST HOW FAST WINDS DECOUPLE. THUS TRENDED ON THE COLD SIDE OF MOS
WHICH WILL PUSH LOWS TO AT OR BELOW RECORD LEVELS BY EARLY SUNDAY IN
SPOTS PER THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING QUICK CHANGES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
PASSING SHORTWAVE RIDGING BEING REPLACED BY ANOTHER UPSTREAM 5H TROUGH
AND SUBSEQUENT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY. FAST REBOUND WITH WARM
ADVECTION DEVELOPING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING HIGH ON SUNDAY
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RECOVER TO THE UPPER 40S-MID 50S GIVEN HEATING OF
DRY AIR DESPITE SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS LATE. PRE-FRONTAL
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT WILL ALSO ARRIVE PRETTY QUICK SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH MODELS SHOWING AN AXIS OF SHOWERS PUSHING ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS BY MIDNIGHT AND THEN EXITING TO THE SOUTH BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SUPPORTS GOING FROM BASICALLY DRY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING
TO HIGH CHANCE OR LOW LIKELYS MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND CHANCES SOUTH-
WEST MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT LOW TEMPS TO REMAIN JUST WARM
ENOUGH...MOSTLY 30S TO SEE MOSTLY LIQUID PTYPE WITH ONLY THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE NW SEEING THINGS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS.
WINDS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AN ISSUE GIVEN SQUEEZING OF THE
GRADIENT WITH THE FRONT BUT FOR NOW APPEARS SHOULD STAY MOSTLY BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS GIVEN A MARGINAL 85H JET AND UNIMPRESSIVE PRESSURE
RISES. OTRW HIGHS MONDAY MOSTLY 50S WEST TO MID/UPPER 60S EAST PER
STRONG DOWNSLOPE AND MORE SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT FRIDAY...

NW FLOW ALOFT PER CONTINUED UPPER TROFFINESS ACROSS THE NE STATES WILL
KEEP PERIODIC PIECES OF CLIPPER ENERGY FLOWING SE INTO MIDWEEK WITH
PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NW WITH A STRONGER FRONT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED SO THINKING MAY STAY DRY WITH THE
CORE OF THESE FEATURES WELL NORTH SUPPORTING ONLY ISOLATED POPS AT THIS
POINT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. BOUNDARY SHOULD DRIVE THROUGH THE
REGION BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO BRING EVEN
DRIER WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH TEMPERATURE MODERATION UNDER
GRADUAL 85H WARMING.

MODELS CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON BOTH LEAD SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY HEADING
EAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER IN THE WEEK IN ADVANCE OF
MORE PRONOUNCED DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM 5H TROFFINESS BY THURSDAY.
ALTHOUGH PHASING LOOKS RATHER UNLIKELY...APPEARS DEEPENING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF WILL BE IN PLACE ALLOWING AN INITIAL SHOT OF
SHOWERS TO GET LIFTED NORTH OUT OF THE DAMPENING SOUTHERN WAVE. THIS
ALONG A SURFACE WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN TROUGH/COLD FRONT THAT
SHOULD ENHANCE LIFT ESPCLY WESTERN HALF LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY EVENING. THUS RUNNING WITH MAINLY LOW POPS MOUNTAINS WED NIGHT
AND HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELYS THURSDAY GIVEN THE OVERRUNNING NATURE TO THE
WARM ADVECTION PRECIP. WEAK COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY FRIDAY BUT
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR THROUGH THE REGION THE BOUNDARY MAKES IT IF AT
ALL GIVEN DIFFERING GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS OF MORE ENERGY SPILLING INTO THE
UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST. FOR NOW WILL RUN WITH CHANCE POPS ON FRIDAY
WHICH SUPPORTS THE PREVIOUS SLOWER EC SOLUTION.

TEMPS TO REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY MID OR LATE WEEK GIVEN
FLATTER FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION BY WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY WHEN SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD 60S/70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 152 PM EDT FRIDAY...

SCT TO BKN MVFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
PATCHES OF MVFR/ISOLD IFR CONDITIONS IN THE EAST WITH BACK-EDGE
OF ANA-FRONT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AS THE RAIN ENDS. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN UPSLOPE
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...WHILE
DOWNSLOPING EAST OF MOUNTAINS WILL PRODUCE DRYING TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT ON WESTERN SLOPE AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.

VFR CONDITIONS AREA EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEHIND
A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 455 AM EDT FRIDAY...

RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 29:

ROANOKE......19 IN 1982
BLACKSBURG...17 IN 2001
LYNCHBURG....23 IN 1923 AND 1982
DANVILLE.....23 IN 1966
BLUEFIELD....19 IN 1966 AND 1982
LEWISBURG....18 IN 1983

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK/WERT
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...AMS/KK
CLIMATE...AMS/SK




000
FXUS61 KRNK 272337
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
737 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MOISTURE APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 735 PM EDT FRIDAY...

MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST
HOURLY TRENDS IN TEMPERATURE...DEW POINTS...AND CLOUDS...AND
ELIMINATED THREAT OF ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AFTER 5 AM ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA BASED ON LATEST WRF AND
HRRR MODEL OUTPUT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO BE ON
TARGET...SO NO NEED TO MAKE ANY ADDITIONAL THERMAL ADJUSTMENTS.

LATEST SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW WEAK SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING EAST
THROUGH EASTERN TN...WITH SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES/SHOWERS MOVING
NORTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE EAST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM
NEAR MOUNT AIRY NC TO NEAR LYNCHBURG VA. BACK EDGE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE...WITH ALL AREAS IN
PIEDMONT EXPECTED TO BE PRECIPITATION FREE NO LATER THAN 5 AM
SATURDAY MORNING. ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR WILL LIKELY COME TOO LATE
TO SEE ANY CHANGE-OVER TO SNOW EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

FURTHER WEST...ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR ON BACKSIDE OF THE SHORT WAVE
SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING UPSLOPING LIGHT SNOWS ACROSS THE
WESTERN FLANKS OF THE APPALACHIANS. AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION
IS STILL QUITE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN
PREFERRED UPSLOPE AREAS...SUCH AS WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY
WV...AND THIS THREAT ALREADY WELL ADVERTISED IN EXISTING
FORECAST.

AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE APPALACHIANS
TONIGHT AND SLIDE EAST ON SATURDAY. ANA-FRONT PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL
PUSH INTO THE REGION SLOWLY ENDING THE PRECIPITATION IN THE EAST.
A SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH TONIGHT.
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL COMBINE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND NORTHWEST
FLOW TO PRODUCE UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. A LIGHT COATING UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW MAY BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY IN THE NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FAVORED
LOCATIONS. IN CONTRAST... THE DOWNSLOPING WINDS ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL GENERATE CLEARING ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT.
SHAPED CLOUD COVER TONIGHT TOWARDS THE CANADIAN TONIGHT. INITIALLY
LEANED POPS TOWARDS A BLEND OF HRRR...HIRESW-ARW AND NAM THEN MORE
TOWARDS GFS WHICH SEEMS TO CAPTURES UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION IN THE
WEST BETTER TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TEENS IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE
PIEDMONT.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SATURDAY
AND BRING AN END TO ANY LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE FAR
WESTERN SLOPES. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE CHILLY WITH READINGS
FROM THE MID 20S IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT FRIDAY...

VERY COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ABOUT OVERHEAD THE
MOUNTAINS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH OPTIMAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND VERY DRY AIR. GIVEN
85H TEMPS OF BETWEEN -10 AND -15C SHOULD SEE TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE
TEENS IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S EAST PENDING
JUST HOW FAST WINDS DECOUPLE. THUS TRENDED ON THE COLD SIDE OF MOS
WHICH WILL PUSH LOWS TO AT OR BELOW RECORD LEVELS BY EARLY SUNDAY IN
SPOTS PER THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING QUICK CHANGES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
PASSING SHORTWAVE RIDGING BEING REPLACED BY ANOTHER UPSTREAM 5H TROUGH
AND SUBSEQUENT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY. FAST REBOUND WITH WARM
ADVECTION DEVELOPING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING HIGH ON SUNDAY
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RECOVER TO THE UPPER 40S-MID 50S GIVEN HEATING OF
DRY AIR DESPITE SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS LATE. PRE-FRONTAL
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT WILL ALSO ARRIVE PRETTY QUICK SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH MODELS SHOWING AN AXIS OF SHOWERS PUSHING ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS BY MIDNIGHT AND THEN EXITING TO THE SOUTH BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SUPPORTS GOING FROM BASICALLY DRY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING
TO HIGH CHANCE OR LOW LIKELYS MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND CHANCES SOUTH-
WEST MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT LOW TEMPS TO REMAIN JUST WARM
ENOUGH...MOSTLY 30S TO SEE MOSTLY LIQUID PTYPE WITH ONLY THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE NW SEEING THINGS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS.
WINDS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AN ISSUE GIVEN SQUEEZING OF THE
GRADIENT WITH THE FRONT BUT FOR NOW APPEARS SHOULD STAY MOSTLY BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS GIVEN A MARGINAL 85H JET AND UNIMPRESSIVE PRESSURE
RISES. OTRW HIGHS MONDAY MOSTLY 50S WEST TO MID/UPPER 60S EAST PER
STRONG DOWNSLOPE AND MORE SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT FRIDAY...

NW FLOW ALOFT PER CONTINUED UPPER TROFFINESS ACROSS THE NE STATES WILL
KEEP PERIODIC PIECES OF CLIPPER ENERGY FLOWING SE INTO MIDWEEK WITH
PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NW WITH A STRONGER FRONT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED SO THINKING MAY STAY DRY WITH THE
CORE OF THESE FEATURES WELL NORTH SUPPORTING ONLY ISOLATED POPS AT THIS
POINT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. BOUNDARY SHOULD DRIVE THROUGH THE
REGION BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO BRING EVEN
DRIER WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH TEMPERATURE MODERATION UNDER
GRADUAL 85H WARMING.

MODELS CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON BOTH LEAD SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY HEADING
EAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER IN THE WEEK IN ADVANCE OF
MORE PRONOUNCED DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM 5H TROFFINESS BY THURSDAY.
ALTHOUGH PHASING LOOKS RATHER UNLIKELY...APPEARS DEEPENING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF WILL BE IN PLACE ALLOWING AN INITIAL SHOT OF
SHOWERS TO GET LIFTED NORTH OUT OF THE DAMPENING SOUTHERN WAVE. THIS
ALONG A SURFACE WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN TROUGH/COLD FRONT THAT
SHOULD ENHANCE LIFT ESPCLY WESTERN HALF LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY EVENING. THUS RUNNING WITH MAINLY LOW POPS MOUNTAINS WED NIGHT
AND HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELYS THURSDAY GIVEN THE OVERRUNNING NATURE TO THE
WARM ADVECTION PRECIP. WEAK COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY FRIDAY BUT
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR THROUGH THE REGION THE BOUNDARY MAKES IT IF AT
ALL GIVEN DIFFERING GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS OF MORE ENERGY SPILLING INTO THE
UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST. FOR NOW WILL RUN WITH CHANCE POPS ON FRIDAY
WHICH SUPPORTS THE PREVIOUS SLOWER EC SOLUTION.

TEMPS TO REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY MID OR LATE WEEK GIVEN
FLATTER FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION BY WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY WHEN SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD 60S/70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 152 PM EDT FRIDAY...

SCT TO BKN MVFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
PATCHES OF MVFR/ISOLD IFR CONDITIONS IN THE EAST WITH BACK-EDGE
OF ANA-FRONT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AS THE RAIN ENDS. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN UPSLOPE
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...WHILE
DOWNSLOPING EAST OF MOUNTAINS WILL PRODUCE DRYING TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT ON WESTERN SLOPE AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.

VFR CONDITIONS AREA EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEHIND
A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 455 AM EDT FRIDAY...

RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 29:

ROANOKE......19 IN 1982
BLACKSBURG...17 IN 2001
LYNCHBURG....23 IN 1923 AND 1982
DANVILLE.....23 IN 1966
BLUEFIELD....19 IN 1966 AND 1982
LEWISBURG....18 IN 1983

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK/WERT
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...AMS/KK
CLIMATE...AMS/SK




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 272327
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
727 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST IS IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST THIS
EVENING. THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST PCPN WITH THE LOW HAS SHIFTED
EAST WITH ONLY AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN BEING REPORTED. TEMPS STILL
ABOVE FREEZING SO KEPT CHC RAIN ALL AREAS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
ALONG THE COAST THRU MIDNIGHT.

ECHOES ASSCTD WITH THE UVM FROM APPRCHG TROF ALRDY DVLPNG ACROSS
NWRN MOST CNTYS. LATEST RAP/HRRR SHOW THIS PCPN TO CONTINUE THRU
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES ESE ACROSS THE FA. CAA
CONTS AND TMPS WILL EVENTUALLY COOL ENUF TO WHERE THE LGHT RAIN
BECOMES MIXED WITH OR CHANGES TO SNOW SHWRS/FLRYS AFTR 06Z. THE
CHANGEOVER OCCURS OVR THE PIEDMONT FIRST THEN TOWARDS THE CHES BAY
AND COASTAL AREAS AFTR 09Z. ANY QFP AFTR MIDNIGHT WILL BE LIGHT SO
NO IMPACT ISSUES ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT. LOWS NR 30F NW TO
THE M/U30S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPR TROUGH MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON SAT...THEN OFFSHORE BY
SUN MRNG. HIGHS ON SAT ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE M/U40S.
IF THERE ARE ANY LINGERING SHWRS IN THE MORNING...THERE COULD
STILL BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. AFTN INSTABILITY W/ THE TROUGH
OVERHEAD WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD CUMULUS WHICH MAY RESULT
IN ISOLATED SHWRS THAT SHOULD STAY CONFINED ALONG THE COAST. ALL
SHWRS FINALLY COME TO AN END EARLY SAT EVE...THE SKY CLRS...AND
TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE 20S BY SUN MRNG.

SFC HIGH PRES MOVES ACRS THE RGN ON SUN. XPCG SUNNY/DRY/COOL WX
W/ LGT WINDS. LIMITED MIXING WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK WITH
READINGS ONLY RISING INTO THE M/U40S ALONG THE CST TO THE L/M50S
ACRS INTERIOR VA AND NE NC.

NEXT TROUGH ALOFT AND ACCOMPANYING SFC CDFNT TO CROSS THE RGN LT
SUN NGT/MON MRNG...W/ VRB CLDS AND LO PROB FOR PCPN (15-30%).
XPCG MORE OF A DP LYRD WSW LO LVL FLO ON MON LEADING TO BETTER
WARMING. SKY AVGG OUT PSNY ON MON...W/ HI TEMPS FM THE L/M60S
E...TO THE L70S W.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN PREVAILS THRU THE EXTENDED...AS NRN STREAM
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACTIVE. THE FIRST NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE EXITS THE
COAST LATE MON NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE REACHING THE OH VALLEY
LATE TUES. ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND TUES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TRACK
OF THE NRN STREAM LOW...WITH THE 27/12Z GFS LIFTING IT THRU NE...THE
27/12Z ECMWF THRU THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND THE 27/12Z CMC
THRU NC. BASED ON THE OVERALL PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW...PREFER THE NRN TRACK...KEEPING THE FA DRY. ASSOCIATED WEAK
COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION TUES NIGHT-WEDS. LIMITED
MOISTURE AND LITTLE APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL RESULT IN A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE. UPPER/SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ERN CONUS WEDS.
THEREAFTER...MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE HANDLING OF A SRN STREAM SYSTEM
LIFTING FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE GULF STATES WEDS-WEDS NIGHT.
GFS QUICKER TO RETURN MOISTURE TO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATES OFF THE SE COAST WEDS-WEDS NIGHT...WHILE ITS ECMWF AND CMC
COUNTERPARTS ARE SLOWER WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN. THEREAFTER...THE
NEXT NRN STREAM SYSTEM PROGGED TO REACH THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY
LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT SPATIAL AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST...WITH THE GFS PUSHING THE FRONT THRU 18
HRS BEFORE THE ECMWF (FRI VS. SAT MORNING). WILL MAINTAIN LOW END
CHANCE POPS BEGINNING THURS. WILL CARRY LOW END CHANCE POPS THROUGH
FRI...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM.

TEMPS TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED WILL BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONABLE
NORMS...IN THE 60S INLAND AND UPPER 50S-LOW 60S ERN SHORE AND
COASTAL AREAS. THURS HIGHS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON POTENTIAL CLOUD
COVER/PRECIP. HAVE OPTED FOR A BLEND...RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 INLAND AND LOW-MID 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL
AREAS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS HAS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA
THIS AFTN. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES FROM THE WEST SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES HAVE FREQUENTLY VARIED FROM VFR TO IFR
WITH MVFR BEING THE MOST PREDOMINANT CONDITION EXCEPT MOSTLY IFR AT
ECG. IT HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN THE TRENDS BUT BUFR
SOUNDINGS WOULD INDICATE AN OVERALL DECREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TOWARD EVENING. THE SOUNDINGS BECOME MORE SATURATED AGAIN WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE TROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. DID NOT LOWER
CEILINGS VERY MUCH DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND ANY PCPN WILL BE TOO
SPARSE AND UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. AN IMPROVING TREND
RETURNS TOWARD MIDDAY SATURDAY.

WINDS DIMINISH LATE TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS BUT THEY
STRENGTHEN AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING AS THE LOW OFF THE COAST
INTENSIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SHOULD
PROMOTE GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT HAS LOCATED OFF THE SE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE SC COAST.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
CURRENT OBS OVER THE WATER INDICATE NLY WINDS AVG 15-20 KT WITH
WAVES 2-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. SFC LOW LIFTS NEWD TONIGHT TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER SURGE TONIGHT. STRONGEST CAA ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
NW WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT OVER THE WATER.
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS SEWD THRU SAT NIGHT-SUN
MORNING...RESULTING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CAA. SCA CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THRU SUN MORNING UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY
BUILDS OVER THE WATER. WAVES GENERALLY 3-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. NW
WINDS SUBSIDE TO 10-15 KT SUN AFTERNOON WITH SEAS DROPPING BELOW 5
FT. EXTENDED SCA HEADLINES THRU SUN MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY
PASSES OVER THE REGION SUN...AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT. FLOW
SHIFTS TO THE SSW. THE NEXT (WEAK) COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W
LATE SUN. SW FLOW INCREASES LATE SUN NIGHT...WITH MODELS INDICATING
SCA CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BASED ON WAA AND COLD WATER...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE SCA CONDITIONS. VERY LITTLE CAA IN WAKE OF THE FRONT LATE
SUN NIGHT-MON MORNING...SO SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED
ATTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ/SAM



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 272327
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
727 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST IS IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST THIS
EVENING. THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST PCPN WITH THE LOW HAS SHIFTED
EAST WITH ONLY AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN BEING REPORTED. TEMPS STILL
ABOVE FREEZING SO KEPT CHC RAIN ALL AREAS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
ALONG THE COAST THRU MIDNIGHT.

ECHOES ASSCTD WITH THE UVM FROM APPRCHG TROF ALRDY DVLPNG ACROSS
NWRN MOST CNTYS. LATEST RAP/HRRR SHOW THIS PCPN TO CONTINUE THRU
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES ESE ACROSS THE FA. CAA
CONTS AND TMPS WILL EVENTUALLY COOL ENUF TO WHERE THE LGHT RAIN
BECOMES MIXED WITH OR CHANGES TO SNOW SHWRS/FLRYS AFTR 06Z. THE
CHANGEOVER OCCURS OVR THE PIEDMONT FIRST THEN TOWARDS THE CHES BAY
AND COASTAL AREAS AFTR 09Z. ANY QFP AFTR MIDNIGHT WILL BE LIGHT SO
NO IMPACT ISSUES ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT. LOWS NR 30F NW TO
THE M/U30S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPR TROUGH MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON SAT...THEN OFFSHORE BY
SUN MRNG. HIGHS ON SAT ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE M/U40S.
IF THERE ARE ANY LINGERING SHWRS IN THE MORNING...THERE COULD
STILL BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. AFTN INSTABILITY W/ THE TROUGH
OVERHEAD WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD CUMULUS WHICH MAY RESULT
IN ISOLATED SHWRS THAT SHOULD STAY CONFINED ALONG THE COAST. ALL
SHWRS FINALLY COME TO AN END EARLY SAT EVE...THE SKY CLRS...AND
TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE 20S BY SUN MRNG.

SFC HIGH PRES MOVES ACRS THE RGN ON SUN. XPCG SUNNY/DRY/COOL WX
W/ LGT WINDS. LIMITED MIXING WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK WITH
READINGS ONLY RISING INTO THE M/U40S ALONG THE CST TO THE L/M50S
ACRS INTERIOR VA AND NE NC.

NEXT TROUGH ALOFT AND ACCOMPANYING SFC CDFNT TO CROSS THE RGN LT
SUN NGT/MON MRNG...W/ VRB CLDS AND LO PROB FOR PCPN (15-30%).
XPCG MORE OF A DP LYRD WSW LO LVL FLO ON MON LEADING TO BETTER
WARMING. SKY AVGG OUT PSNY ON MON...W/ HI TEMPS FM THE L/M60S
E...TO THE L70S W.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN PREVAILS THRU THE EXTENDED...AS NRN STREAM
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACTIVE. THE FIRST NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE EXITS THE
COAST LATE MON NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE REACHING THE OH VALLEY
LATE TUES. ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND TUES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TRACK
OF THE NRN STREAM LOW...WITH THE 27/12Z GFS LIFTING IT THRU NE...THE
27/12Z ECMWF THRU THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND THE 27/12Z CMC
THRU NC. BASED ON THE OVERALL PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW...PREFER THE NRN TRACK...KEEPING THE FA DRY. ASSOCIATED WEAK
COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION TUES NIGHT-WEDS. LIMITED
MOISTURE AND LITTLE APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL RESULT IN A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE. UPPER/SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ERN CONUS WEDS.
THEREAFTER...MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE HANDLING OF A SRN STREAM SYSTEM
LIFTING FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE GULF STATES WEDS-WEDS NIGHT.
GFS QUICKER TO RETURN MOISTURE TO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATES OFF THE SE COAST WEDS-WEDS NIGHT...WHILE ITS ECMWF AND CMC
COUNTERPARTS ARE SLOWER WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN. THEREAFTER...THE
NEXT NRN STREAM SYSTEM PROGGED TO REACH THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY
LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT SPATIAL AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST...WITH THE GFS PUSHING THE FRONT THRU 18
HRS BEFORE THE ECMWF (FRI VS. SAT MORNING). WILL MAINTAIN LOW END
CHANCE POPS BEGINNING THURS. WILL CARRY LOW END CHANCE POPS THROUGH
FRI...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM.

TEMPS TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED WILL BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONABLE
NORMS...IN THE 60S INLAND AND UPPER 50S-LOW 60S ERN SHORE AND
COASTAL AREAS. THURS HIGHS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON POTENTIAL CLOUD
COVER/PRECIP. HAVE OPTED FOR A BLEND...RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 INLAND AND LOW-MID 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL
AREAS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS HAS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA
THIS AFTN. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES FROM THE WEST SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES HAVE FREQUENTLY VARIED FROM VFR TO IFR
WITH MVFR BEING THE MOST PREDOMINANT CONDITION EXCEPT MOSTLY IFR AT
ECG. IT HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN THE TRENDS BUT BUFR
SOUNDINGS WOULD INDICATE AN OVERALL DECREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TOWARD EVENING. THE SOUNDINGS BECOME MORE SATURATED AGAIN WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE TROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. DID NOT LOWER
CEILINGS VERY MUCH DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND ANY PCPN WILL BE TOO
SPARSE AND UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. AN IMPROVING TREND
RETURNS TOWARD MIDDAY SATURDAY.

WINDS DIMINISH LATE TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS BUT THEY
STRENGTHEN AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING AS THE LOW OFF THE COAST
INTENSIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SHOULD
PROMOTE GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT HAS LOCATED OFF THE SE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE SC COAST.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
CURRENT OBS OVER THE WATER INDICATE NLY WINDS AVG 15-20 KT WITH
WAVES 2-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. SFC LOW LIFTS NEWD TONIGHT TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER SURGE TONIGHT. STRONGEST CAA ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
NW WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT OVER THE WATER.
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS SEWD THRU SAT NIGHT-SUN
MORNING...RESULTING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CAA. SCA CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THRU SUN MORNING UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY
BUILDS OVER THE WATER. WAVES GENERALLY 3-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. NW
WINDS SUBSIDE TO 10-15 KT SUN AFTERNOON WITH SEAS DROPPING BELOW 5
FT. EXTENDED SCA HEADLINES THRU SUN MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY
PASSES OVER THE REGION SUN...AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT. FLOW
SHIFTS TO THE SSW. THE NEXT (WEAK) COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W
LATE SUN. SW FLOW INCREASES LATE SUN NIGHT...WITH MODELS INDICATING
SCA CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BASED ON WAA AND COLD WATER...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE SCA CONDITIONS. VERY LITTLE CAA IN WAKE OF THE FRONT LATE
SUN NIGHT-MON MORNING...SO SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED
ATTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ/SAM



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 272327
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
727 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST IS IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST THIS
EVENING. THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST PCPN WITH THE LOW HAS SHIFTED
EAST WITH ONLY AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN BEING REPORTED. TEMPS STILL
ABOVE FREEZING SO KEPT CHC RAIN ALL AREAS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
ALONG THE COAST THRU MIDNIGHT.

ECHOES ASSCTD WITH THE UVM FROM APPRCHG TROF ALRDY DVLPNG ACROSS
NWRN MOST CNTYS. LATEST RAP/HRRR SHOW THIS PCPN TO CONTINUE THRU
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES ESE ACROSS THE FA. CAA
CONTS AND TMPS WILL EVENTUALLY COOL ENUF TO WHERE THE LGHT RAIN
BECOMES MIXED WITH OR CHANGES TO SNOW SHWRS/FLRYS AFTR 06Z. THE
CHANGEOVER OCCURS OVR THE PIEDMONT FIRST THEN TOWARDS THE CHES BAY
AND COASTAL AREAS AFTR 09Z. ANY QFP AFTR MIDNIGHT WILL BE LIGHT SO
NO IMPACT ISSUES ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT. LOWS NR 30F NW TO
THE M/U30S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPR TROUGH MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON SAT...THEN OFFSHORE BY
SUN MRNG. HIGHS ON SAT ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE M/U40S.
IF THERE ARE ANY LINGERING SHWRS IN THE MORNING...THERE COULD
STILL BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. AFTN INSTABILITY W/ THE TROUGH
OVERHEAD WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD CUMULUS WHICH MAY RESULT
IN ISOLATED SHWRS THAT SHOULD STAY CONFINED ALONG THE COAST. ALL
SHWRS FINALLY COME TO AN END EARLY SAT EVE...THE SKY CLRS...AND
TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE 20S BY SUN MRNG.

SFC HIGH PRES MOVES ACRS THE RGN ON SUN. XPCG SUNNY/DRY/COOL WX
W/ LGT WINDS. LIMITED MIXING WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK WITH
READINGS ONLY RISING INTO THE M/U40S ALONG THE CST TO THE L/M50S
ACRS INTERIOR VA AND NE NC.

NEXT TROUGH ALOFT AND ACCOMPANYING SFC CDFNT TO CROSS THE RGN LT
SUN NGT/MON MRNG...W/ VRB CLDS AND LO PROB FOR PCPN (15-30%).
XPCG MORE OF A DP LYRD WSW LO LVL FLO ON MON LEADING TO BETTER
WARMING. SKY AVGG OUT PSNY ON MON...W/ HI TEMPS FM THE L/M60S
E...TO THE L70S W.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN PREVAILS THRU THE EXTENDED...AS NRN STREAM
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACTIVE. THE FIRST NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE EXITS THE
COAST LATE MON NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE REACHING THE OH VALLEY
LATE TUES. ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND TUES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TRACK
OF THE NRN STREAM LOW...WITH THE 27/12Z GFS LIFTING IT THRU NE...THE
27/12Z ECMWF THRU THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND THE 27/12Z CMC
THRU NC. BASED ON THE OVERALL PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW...PREFER THE NRN TRACK...KEEPING THE FA DRY. ASSOCIATED WEAK
COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION TUES NIGHT-WEDS. LIMITED
MOISTURE AND LITTLE APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL RESULT IN A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE. UPPER/SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ERN CONUS WEDS.
THEREAFTER...MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE HANDLING OF A SRN STREAM SYSTEM
LIFTING FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE GULF STATES WEDS-WEDS NIGHT.
GFS QUICKER TO RETURN MOISTURE TO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATES OFF THE SE COAST WEDS-WEDS NIGHT...WHILE ITS ECMWF AND CMC
COUNTERPARTS ARE SLOWER WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN. THEREAFTER...THE
NEXT NRN STREAM SYSTEM PROGGED TO REACH THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY
LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT SPATIAL AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST...WITH THE GFS PUSHING THE FRONT THRU 18
HRS BEFORE THE ECMWF (FRI VS. SAT MORNING). WILL MAINTAIN LOW END
CHANCE POPS BEGINNING THURS. WILL CARRY LOW END CHANCE POPS THROUGH
FRI...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM.

TEMPS TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED WILL BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONABLE
NORMS...IN THE 60S INLAND AND UPPER 50S-LOW 60S ERN SHORE AND
COASTAL AREAS. THURS HIGHS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON POTENTIAL CLOUD
COVER/PRECIP. HAVE OPTED FOR A BLEND...RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 INLAND AND LOW-MID 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL
AREAS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS HAS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA
THIS AFTN. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES FROM THE WEST SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES HAVE FREQUENTLY VARIED FROM VFR TO IFR
WITH MVFR BEING THE MOST PREDOMINANT CONDITION EXCEPT MOSTLY IFR AT
ECG. IT HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN THE TRENDS BUT BUFR
SOUNDINGS WOULD INDICATE AN OVERALL DECREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TOWARD EVENING. THE SOUNDINGS BECOME MORE SATURATED AGAIN WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE TROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. DID NOT LOWER
CEILINGS VERY MUCH DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND ANY PCPN WILL BE TOO
SPARSE AND UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. AN IMPROVING TREND
RETURNS TOWARD MIDDAY SATURDAY.

WINDS DIMINISH LATE TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS BUT THEY
STRENGTHEN AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING AS THE LOW OFF THE COAST
INTENSIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SHOULD
PROMOTE GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT HAS LOCATED OFF THE SE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE SC COAST.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
CURRENT OBS OVER THE WATER INDICATE NLY WINDS AVG 15-20 KT WITH
WAVES 2-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. SFC LOW LIFTS NEWD TONIGHT TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER SURGE TONIGHT. STRONGEST CAA ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
NW WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT OVER THE WATER.
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS SEWD THRU SAT NIGHT-SUN
MORNING...RESULTING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CAA. SCA CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THRU SUN MORNING UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY
BUILDS OVER THE WATER. WAVES GENERALLY 3-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. NW
WINDS SUBSIDE TO 10-15 KT SUN AFTERNOON WITH SEAS DROPPING BELOW 5
FT. EXTENDED SCA HEADLINES THRU SUN MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY
PASSES OVER THE REGION SUN...AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT. FLOW
SHIFTS TO THE SSW. THE NEXT (WEAK) COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W
LATE SUN. SW FLOW INCREASES LATE SUN NIGHT...WITH MODELS INDICATING
SCA CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BASED ON WAA AND COLD WATER...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE SCA CONDITIONS. VERY LITTLE CAA IN WAKE OF THE FRONT LATE
SUN NIGHT-MON MORNING...SO SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED
ATTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ/SAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 272327
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
727 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST IS IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST THIS
EVENING. THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST PCPN WITH THE LOW HAS SHIFTED
EAST WITH ONLY AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN BEING REPORTED. TEMPS STILL
ABOVE FREEZING SO KEPT CHC RAIN ALL AREAS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
ALONG THE COAST THRU MIDNIGHT.

ECHOES ASSCTD WITH THE UVM FROM APPRCHG TROF ALRDY DVLPNG ACROSS
NWRN MOST CNTYS. LATEST RAP/HRRR SHOW THIS PCPN TO CONTINUE THRU
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES ESE ACROSS THE FA. CAA
CONTS AND TMPS WILL EVENTUALLY COOL ENUF TO WHERE THE LGHT RAIN
BECOMES MIXED WITH OR CHANGES TO SNOW SHWRS/FLRYS AFTR 06Z. THE
CHANGEOVER OCCURS OVR THE PIEDMONT FIRST THEN TOWARDS THE CHES BAY
AND COASTAL AREAS AFTR 09Z. ANY QFP AFTR MIDNIGHT WILL BE LIGHT SO
NO IMPACT ISSUES ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT. LOWS NR 30F NW TO
THE M/U30S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPR TROUGH MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON SAT...THEN OFFSHORE BY
SUN MRNG. HIGHS ON SAT ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE M/U40S.
IF THERE ARE ANY LINGERING SHWRS IN THE MORNING...THERE COULD
STILL BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. AFTN INSTABILITY W/ THE TROUGH
OVERHEAD WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD CUMULUS WHICH MAY RESULT
IN ISOLATED SHWRS THAT SHOULD STAY CONFINED ALONG THE COAST. ALL
SHWRS FINALLY COME TO AN END EARLY SAT EVE...THE SKY CLRS...AND
TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE 20S BY SUN MRNG.

SFC HIGH PRES MOVES ACRS THE RGN ON SUN. XPCG SUNNY/DRY/COOL WX
W/ LGT WINDS. LIMITED MIXING WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK WITH
READINGS ONLY RISING INTO THE M/U40S ALONG THE CST TO THE L/M50S
ACRS INTERIOR VA AND NE NC.

NEXT TROUGH ALOFT AND ACCOMPANYING SFC CDFNT TO CROSS THE RGN LT
SUN NGT/MON MRNG...W/ VRB CLDS AND LO PROB FOR PCPN (15-30%).
XPCG MORE OF A DP LYRD WSW LO LVL FLO ON MON LEADING TO BETTER
WARMING. SKY AVGG OUT PSNY ON MON...W/ HI TEMPS FM THE L/M60S
E...TO THE L70S W.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN PREVAILS THRU THE EXTENDED...AS NRN STREAM
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACTIVE. THE FIRST NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE EXITS THE
COAST LATE MON NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE REACHING THE OH VALLEY
LATE TUES. ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND TUES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TRACK
OF THE NRN STREAM LOW...WITH THE 27/12Z GFS LIFTING IT THRU NE...THE
27/12Z ECMWF THRU THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND THE 27/12Z CMC
THRU NC. BASED ON THE OVERALL PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW...PREFER THE NRN TRACK...KEEPING THE FA DRY. ASSOCIATED WEAK
COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION TUES NIGHT-WEDS. LIMITED
MOISTURE AND LITTLE APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL RESULT IN A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE. UPPER/SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ERN CONUS WEDS.
THEREAFTER...MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE HANDLING OF A SRN STREAM SYSTEM
LIFTING FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE GULF STATES WEDS-WEDS NIGHT.
GFS QUICKER TO RETURN MOISTURE TO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATES OFF THE SE COAST WEDS-WEDS NIGHT...WHILE ITS ECMWF AND CMC
COUNTERPARTS ARE SLOWER WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN. THEREAFTER...THE
NEXT NRN STREAM SYSTEM PROGGED TO REACH THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY
LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT SPATIAL AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST...WITH THE GFS PUSHING THE FRONT THRU 18
HRS BEFORE THE ECMWF (FRI VS. SAT MORNING). WILL MAINTAIN LOW END
CHANCE POPS BEGINNING THURS. WILL CARRY LOW END CHANCE POPS THROUGH
FRI...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM.

TEMPS TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED WILL BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONABLE
NORMS...IN THE 60S INLAND AND UPPER 50S-LOW 60S ERN SHORE AND
COASTAL AREAS. THURS HIGHS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON POTENTIAL CLOUD
COVER/PRECIP. HAVE OPTED FOR A BLEND...RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 INLAND AND LOW-MID 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL
AREAS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS HAS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA
THIS AFTN. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES FROM THE WEST SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES HAVE FREQUENTLY VARIED FROM VFR TO IFR
WITH MVFR BEING THE MOST PREDOMINANT CONDITION EXCEPT MOSTLY IFR AT
ECG. IT HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN THE TRENDS BUT BUFR
SOUNDINGS WOULD INDICATE AN OVERALL DECREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TOWARD EVENING. THE SOUNDINGS BECOME MORE SATURATED AGAIN WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE TROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. DID NOT LOWER
CEILINGS VERY MUCH DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND ANY PCPN WILL BE TOO
SPARSE AND UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. AN IMPROVING TREND
RETURNS TOWARD MIDDAY SATURDAY.

WINDS DIMINISH LATE TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS BUT THEY
STRENGTHEN AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING AS THE LOW OFF THE COAST
INTENSIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SHOULD
PROMOTE GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT HAS LOCATED OFF THE SE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE SC COAST.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
CURRENT OBS OVER THE WATER INDICATE NLY WINDS AVG 15-20 KT WITH
WAVES 2-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. SFC LOW LIFTS NEWD TONIGHT TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER SURGE TONIGHT. STRONGEST CAA ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
NW WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT OVER THE WATER.
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS SEWD THRU SAT NIGHT-SUN
MORNING...RESULTING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CAA. SCA CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THRU SUN MORNING UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY
BUILDS OVER THE WATER. WAVES GENERALLY 3-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. NW
WINDS SUBSIDE TO 10-15 KT SUN AFTERNOON WITH SEAS DROPPING BELOW 5
FT. EXTENDED SCA HEADLINES THRU SUN MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY
PASSES OVER THE REGION SUN...AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT. FLOW
SHIFTS TO THE SSW. THE NEXT (WEAK) COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W
LATE SUN. SW FLOW INCREASES LATE SUN NIGHT...WITH MODELS INDICATING
SCA CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BASED ON WAA AND COLD WATER...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE SCA CONDITIONS. VERY LITTLE CAA IN WAKE OF THE FRONT LATE
SUN NIGHT-MON MORNING...SO SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED
ATTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ/SAM




000
FXUS61 KLWX 272151
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
551 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD SUNDAY. SEVERAL WEAK FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HV RMVD SOME OF THE LOW CHC POPS FOR THE RMNDR OF THE DAY IN THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA. AS CAN BE SEEN ON RGNL RDR THE BEST CHC
FOR PCPN (R) IS IN THE E IN ASSO W/ THE CSTL LOW.

IF PCPN DOES HAPPEN OVRNGT BLV IT WL BE SCT/LGT IN NATURE. WHILE
WE HV CHC SW/RW IN THE FCST FOR SAT MRNG THRU MID AFTN THIS IS
THE TIME OF YR WHERE LO LVL INSTABILITY COUPLED W/ A COLD POOL
ALOFT CAN PRODUCE GRAUPEL.

PRVS DSCN...

H5 TROF AXIS WL DROP INTO CWFA AFTR MIDNGT AND CROSS THRU ELY/MID
AFTN. THIS TIMING A PINCH QUICKER THAN PRVS PROGS. CAA WL BE ONGOING
FM TAFTN THRU TMRW AFTN...W/ H8 TEMPS BTTMG OUT ARND -10 TO -14C.
HWVR...BEST INSTBY AND PVA MIGHT NOT BE COINCIDENT...WHICH MAKES
ORGANIZED PCPN LESS LKLY. AM LEANING MORE TWD DYNAMIC FORCING
MECHANISMS FOR PCPN PRODUCTION...WHICH SUGGEST THAT POP CHCS
PREFERRED OVNGT INTO ELY MRNG CENTRAL VA INTO THE PTMC HIGHLANDS...
AND MRNG/MIDDAY HRS I-95 CORRIDOR/CATOCTINS-NRN BLURDG/HGR-MRB AREA.
MD MAY BE A BIT MORE SUSCEPTIBLE INTO ELY AFTN AS LTMD INSTBY BUILDS
IN DAYTIME HEATING. THAT SAID...MSTR WL BE LIMITED AND HIT-OR-MISS
IN NATURE-- NOT WORTHY OF MORE THEN CHC POPS. DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT
/AND TO A CERTAIN EXTENT AT THE GRDN FOR THOSE SITES THAT SEE
ANYTHING DURING THE AM/...PCPN THAT MAKES IT TO THE GRND STANDS A
GOOD CHC TO REACH AS SNOW PRIOR TO MELTING BUT THERE WUD BE TOO LTL
TO BE CONCERNED ABT ACCUMS.

HIPRES BUILDS DURING THE MID-LT AFTN...WHICH WL ALLOW FOR SKIES TO
BEGIN CLRG. THUS DONT HV ANY POPS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE AFTN.
WINDS WL BE GUSTY ALL DAY...AND THAT WL CONT TO NIGHTFALL. TOP OF
MIXED LYR CONTAINS 25 KT...WHICH GIVES A REASONABLE IDEA OF THE GUST
POTL.

TEMP GDNC FAIRLY WELL CLUSTERED AND CONSISTENT W/ GOING FCST. AS
SUCH...HV TAKEN A BLEND TO IRON OUT ANY CONSISTENCIES THAT MAY
RESIDE. THAT MEANS MIN-T MID TEENS-20S MTNS AND 30-35F CSTL PLAIN.
MAXT MID 30S-MID 40S. SHADED TEMPS ACRS THE NORTH AND WEST DOWN BY A
DEGF OR TWO TO ACCT FOR IMPACT OF CAA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A DAY IN WHICH IT MAY FEEL LIKE WINTER IS STILL HERE - ON
SAT...SUNDAY WILL BE A SLIGHT REBOUND BACK TOWARD MORE AVERAGE
CONDITIONS. ULTIMATELY WE`LL MISS THE MARK IN TEMPS OF AVG HIGHS ON
SUN BY A SOLID 10F DEG OF SO...BUT LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL AT LEAST SUPPLEMENT THE COOLER TEMPS. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE
WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR QUIET WX CONDITIONS ON SUN...BUT WITH A
STILL VERY ACTIVE JET STREAM - MULTIPLE UPPER DISTURBANCES REMAIN IN
THE QUEUE FOR PASSAGE OVER THE COMING WEEK.

FAST ON THE HEELS OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE RELATIVELY LARGE BUT
FAIRLY MOISTURE-STARVED UPPER WAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AGAIN DROP DOWN INTO THE M-U30S BUT W/ A LIGHT
SLY WIND OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE...THESE CONDITIONS
WILL BE MODERATED AND PREVENT MOST AREAS FROM REACHING THE FREEZING
MARK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY MON MRNG...QUICKLY PASSING
ACROSS THE REGION AND MAINLY JUST SWITCHING THE SFC WIND DIRECTION
FROM SLY TO WLY...ALSO EFFICIENTLY MIXING DOWN SOME GUSTY WINDS FOR
THE DAYTIME HRS. WEST WINDS OF 20-30MPH EXPECTED W/ LOCALLY HIGHER
GUSTS...CREATING SOME DOWNSLOPING AND A SUPPLEMENTAL TEMP INCREASE
IN THE LEE OF THE APLCNS/BLUE RIDGE. HIGHS OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE
AREA WILL LIKELY JUMP INTO THE M-U50S...THOUGH NOVA THE PIEDMONT MAY
SEE SOME M-U60S BY LATE AFTN W/ CLEARING SKIES AFTER THE EARLY MRNG
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE OUT OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER GREAT LAKES FOR WEAK PVA TO TRIGGERS A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR
TWO TUESDAY. GREAT LAKES LOW WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH. TEMPERATURE
PROFILE SUPPORTS MIXED PRECIPITATION IF ANY OCCURS LATE TUESDAY
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. WEAK PVA IN ZONAL FLOW WILL SUPPORT RAIN AHEAD
OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
THIGHTNING GRADIENT BETWEEN APPROACH FRONT AND OFFSHORE RIDGE WILL
PRODUCE S-SW WINDS 10-15 KTS THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDS THRU SAT. RW/SW/IP PSBL DURG MRNG HRS SAT ALNG W/ BRIEF
GUSTY WINDS.

WINDS SHUD BE GUSTY BHD TROF...FROM THE NW ARND 20-25 KT.
SUSTAINED WINDS LKLY IN THE TEENS...NOT PROVIDING ENUF SEPARATION
TO EXPLICITLY INCL GUSTS IN TAF.

NO HAZARDOUS WX CONDS EXPECTED FROM LATE SAT INTO MON...OUTSIDE OF
SOME BREEZY CONDS ON MON AFTN BEHIND A COLD FRONT. BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS IN THE 30-40KT RANGE W/ SOME 20-25KT GUSTS AT THE SFC DURING
THE DAYTIME HRS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS PICKING UP TONIGHT...ALTHO BETTER MIXING MAY NOT REACH THE
NARROWER WATERS TIL SUNRISE TMRW. HV MADE APPROPRIATE ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE DATABASE. ONCE IT BEGINS...TOP OF MIXED LYR CONTAINS 25
KT...WHICH GIVES A REASONABLE IDEA OF THE GUST POTL. SCA FOR ALL
WATERS SAT.

BREEZY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS SAT
NIGHT...ESPEC THE MAIN STEM OF THE MD CHES BAY. A SLOW STEADY WIND
DROP OFF ON SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE MAKES A BRIEF APPEARANCE BEFORE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON MON MRNG. BEHIND THE FRONT...WEST WINDS WILL
AGAIN PICK UP INTO SOLID SCA RANGES FOR THE DAYTIME HRS MON.

&&

CLIMATE...
OUR AREA IS IN THE MIDST OF A LARGE SWING IN TEMPERATURES. AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON (MARCH 26TH)...THE REGION SAW THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES OBSERVED SINCE LATE OCTOBER 2014.

SITE...3/26/15 MAX T...WARMEST SINCE.....
DCA.......77 F.......10/28/2014 (80 F)...
BWI.......74 F.......10/28/2014 (80 F)...
IAD.......74 F.......10/28/2014 (82 F)...

SUNDAY MORNING (MARCH 29TH)...LOW TEMPERATURES MAY APPROACH RECORD
MINIMUM VALUES FOR THE DATE.

SITE...3/29 RECORD MIN T...
DCA......18 (1923).........
BWI......18 (1923).........
IAD......20 (1982).........

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!/DFH
PRVS...HTS/GMS



000
FXUS61 KLWX 272151
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
551 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD SUNDAY. SEVERAL WEAK FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HV RMVD SOME OF THE LOW CHC POPS FOR THE RMNDR OF THE DAY IN THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA. AS CAN BE SEEN ON RGNL RDR THE BEST CHC
FOR PCPN (R) IS IN THE E IN ASSO W/ THE CSTL LOW.

IF PCPN DOES HAPPEN OVRNGT BLV IT WL BE SCT/LGT IN NATURE. WHILE
WE HV CHC SW/RW IN THE FCST FOR SAT MRNG THRU MID AFTN THIS IS
THE TIME OF YR WHERE LO LVL INSTABILITY COUPLED W/ A COLD POOL
ALOFT CAN PRODUCE GRAUPEL.

PRVS DSCN...

H5 TROF AXIS WL DROP INTO CWFA AFTR MIDNGT AND CROSS THRU ELY/MID
AFTN. THIS TIMING A PINCH QUICKER THAN PRVS PROGS. CAA WL BE ONGOING
FM TAFTN THRU TMRW AFTN...W/ H8 TEMPS BTTMG OUT ARND -10 TO -14C.
HWVR...BEST INSTBY AND PVA MIGHT NOT BE COINCIDENT...WHICH MAKES
ORGANIZED PCPN LESS LKLY. AM LEANING MORE TWD DYNAMIC FORCING
MECHANISMS FOR PCPN PRODUCTION...WHICH SUGGEST THAT POP CHCS
PREFERRED OVNGT INTO ELY MRNG CENTRAL VA INTO THE PTMC HIGHLANDS...
AND MRNG/MIDDAY HRS I-95 CORRIDOR/CATOCTINS-NRN BLURDG/HGR-MRB AREA.
MD MAY BE A BIT MORE SUSCEPTIBLE INTO ELY AFTN AS LTMD INSTBY BUILDS
IN DAYTIME HEATING. THAT SAID...MSTR WL BE LIMITED AND HIT-OR-MISS
IN NATURE-- NOT WORTHY OF MORE THEN CHC POPS. DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT
/AND TO A CERTAIN EXTENT AT THE GRDN FOR THOSE SITES THAT SEE
ANYTHING DURING THE AM/...PCPN THAT MAKES IT TO THE GRND STANDS A
GOOD CHC TO REACH AS SNOW PRIOR TO MELTING BUT THERE WUD BE TOO LTL
TO BE CONCERNED ABT ACCUMS.

HIPRES BUILDS DURING THE MID-LT AFTN...WHICH WL ALLOW FOR SKIES TO
BEGIN CLRG. THUS DONT HV ANY POPS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE AFTN.
WINDS WL BE GUSTY ALL DAY...AND THAT WL CONT TO NIGHTFALL. TOP OF
MIXED LYR CONTAINS 25 KT...WHICH GIVES A REASONABLE IDEA OF THE GUST
POTL.

TEMP GDNC FAIRLY WELL CLUSTERED AND CONSISTENT W/ GOING FCST. AS
SUCH...HV TAKEN A BLEND TO IRON OUT ANY CONSISTENCIES THAT MAY
RESIDE. THAT MEANS MIN-T MID TEENS-20S MTNS AND 30-35F CSTL PLAIN.
MAXT MID 30S-MID 40S. SHADED TEMPS ACRS THE NORTH AND WEST DOWN BY A
DEGF OR TWO TO ACCT FOR IMPACT OF CAA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A DAY IN WHICH IT MAY FEEL LIKE WINTER IS STILL HERE - ON
SAT...SUNDAY WILL BE A SLIGHT REBOUND BACK TOWARD MORE AVERAGE
CONDITIONS. ULTIMATELY WE`LL MISS THE MARK IN TEMPS OF AVG HIGHS ON
SUN BY A SOLID 10F DEG OF SO...BUT LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL AT LEAST SUPPLEMENT THE COOLER TEMPS. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE
WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR QUIET WX CONDITIONS ON SUN...BUT WITH A
STILL VERY ACTIVE JET STREAM - MULTIPLE UPPER DISTURBANCES REMAIN IN
THE QUEUE FOR PASSAGE OVER THE COMING WEEK.

FAST ON THE HEELS OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE RELATIVELY LARGE BUT
FAIRLY MOISTURE-STARVED UPPER WAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AGAIN DROP DOWN INTO THE M-U30S BUT W/ A LIGHT
SLY WIND OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE...THESE CONDITIONS
WILL BE MODERATED AND PREVENT MOST AREAS FROM REACHING THE FREEZING
MARK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY MON MRNG...QUICKLY PASSING
ACROSS THE REGION AND MAINLY JUST SWITCHING THE SFC WIND DIRECTION
FROM SLY TO WLY...ALSO EFFICIENTLY MIXING DOWN SOME GUSTY WINDS FOR
THE DAYTIME HRS. WEST WINDS OF 20-30MPH EXPECTED W/ LOCALLY HIGHER
GUSTS...CREATING SOME DOWNSLOPING AND A SUPPLEMENTAL TEMP INCREASE
IN THE LEE OF THE APLCNS/BLUE RIDGE. HIGHS OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE
AREA WILL LIKELY JUMP INTO THE M-U50S...THOUGH NOVA THE PIEDMONT MAY
SEE SOME M-U60S BY LATE AFTN W/ CLEARING SKIES AFTER THE EARLY MRNG
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE OUT OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER GREAT LAKES FOR WEAK PVA TO TRIGGERS A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR
TWO TUESDAY. GREAT LAKES LOW WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH. TEMPERATURE
PROFILE SUPPORTS MIXED PRECIPITATION IF ANY OCCURS LATE TUESDAY
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. WEAK PVA IN ZONAL FLOW WILL SUPPORT RAIN AHEAD
OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
THIGHTNING GRADIENT BETWEEN APPROACH FRONT AND OFFSHORE RIDGE WILL
PRODUCE S-SW WINDS 10-15 KTS THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDS THRU SAT. RW/SW/IP PSBL DURG MRNG HRS SAT ALNG W/ BRIEF
GUSTY WINDS.

WINDS SHUD BE GUSTY BHD TROF...FROM THE NW ARND 20-25 KT.
SUSTAINED WINDS LKLY IN THE TEENS...NOT PROVIDING ENUF SEPARATION
TO EXPLICITLY INCL GUSTS IN TAF.

NO HAZARDOUS WX CONDS EXPECTED FROM LATE SAT INTO MON...OUTSIDE OF
SOME BREEZY CONDS ON MON AFTN BEHIND A COLD FRONT. BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS IN THE 30-40KT RANGE W/ SOME 20-25KT GUSTS AT THE SFC DURING
THE DAYTIME HRS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS PICKING UP TONIGHT...ALTHO BETTER MIXING MAY NOT REACH THE
NARROWER WATERS TIL SUNRISE TMRW. HV MADE APPROPRIATE ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE DATABASE. ONCE IT BEGINS...TOP OF MIXED LYR CONTAINS 25
KT...WHICH GIVES A REASONABLE IDEA OF THE GUST POTL. SCA FOR ALL
WATERS SAT.

BREEZY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS SAT
NIGHT...ESPEC THE MAIN STEM OF THE MD CHES BAY. A SLOW STEADY WIND
DROP OFF ON SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE MAKES A BRIEF APPEARANCE BEFORE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON MON MRNG. BEHIND THE FRONT...WEST WINDS WILL
AGAIN PICK UP INTO SOLID SCA RANGES FOR THE DAYTIME HRS MON.

&&

CLIMATE...
OUR AREA IS IN THE MIDST OF A LARGE SWING IN TEMPERATURES. AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON (MARCH 26TH)...THE REGION SAW THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES OBSERVED SINCE LATE OCTOBER 2014.

SITE...3/26/15 MAX T...WARMEST SINCE.....
DCA.......77 F.......10/28/2014 (80 F)...
BWI.......74 F.......10/28/2014 (80 F)...
IAD.......74 F.......10/28/2014 (82 F)...

SUNDAY MORNING (MARCH 29TH)...LOW TEMPERATURES MAY APPROACH RECORD
MINIMUM VALUES FOR THE DATE.

SITE...3/29 RECORD MIN T...
DCA......18 (1923).........
BWI......18 (1923).........
IAD......20 (1982).........

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!/DFH
PRVS...HTS/GMS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 272016
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
416 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
QUITE A DIFFERENT AFTN ACRS THE FA.../W CLDNS...WIDESPREAD
RA...AND TEMPS AVGG 30-35F LWR THAN 24 HRS AGO. CDFNT FM EARLIER
TDA HAS SETTLED WELL TO THE SE. ONE FINAL SFC LO PRES WAVE TO
TRACK NE AND OFF THE CST OF NC BY LT THIS EVE. MOST WIDESPREAD OF
THE RA HAS SHIFTED TO MNLY ALG-E OF I95 SO FAR THIS AFTN...WILL
KEEP POPS HI (80-100%) MOST PLACES THROUGH EARLY THIS EVE AS TEMPS
HOVER MNLY FM 40-45F.

PCPN GENERALLY MOVES OFFSHORE AFT 00Z THIS EVE. HOWEVER...THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH (NOW EXTENDING FM LWR MI S THROUGH THE TN
VLY) WILL TEND TO KEEP ENOUGH UVM IN PLACE ALONG WITH LINGERING
MOISTURE TO TOUCH OFF SPOTTY SHRAS THROUGH THE OVRNGT HRS AS IT
APPROACHES FM THE W. WITH VERY COLD AIR ALOFT ARRIVING AFT
MDNGT...THERE COULD BE SN SHWRS OR MIXED RA/SN SHWRS. NO SN
ACCUM IS EXPECTED AND TRAVEL NOT LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED. LO TEMPS
TNGT FM NR 30F NW TO THE M/U30S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPR TROUGH MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON SAT...THEN OFFSHORE BY
SUN MRNG. HIGHS ON SAT ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE M/U40S.
IF THERE ARE ANY LINGERING SHWRS IN THE MORNING...THERE COULD
STILL BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. AFTN INSTABILITY W/ THE TROUGH
OVERHEAD WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD CUMULUS WHICH MAY RESULT
IN ISOLATED SHWRS THAT SHOULD STAY CONFINED ALONG THE COAST. ALL
SHWRS FINALLY COME TO AN END EARLY SAT EVE...THE SKY CLRS...AND
TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE 20S BY SUN MRNG.

SFC HIGH PRES MOVES ACRS THE RGN ON SUN. XPCG SUNNY/DRY/COOL WX
W/ LGT WINDS. LIMITED MIXING WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK WITH
READINGS ONLY RISING INTO THE M/U40S ALONG THE CST TO THE L/M50S
ACRS INTERIOR VA AND NE NC.

NEXT TROUGH ALOFT AND ACCOMPANYING SFC CDFNT TO CROSS THE RGN LT
SUN NGT/MON MRNG...W/ VRB CLDS AND LO PROB FOR PCPN (15-30%).
XPCG MORE OF A DP LYRD WSW LO LVL FLO ON MON LEADING TO BETTER
WARMING. SKY AVGG OUT PSNY ON MON...W/ HI TEMPS FM THE L/M60S
E...TO THE L70S W.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN PREVAILS THRU THE EXTENDED...AS NRN STREAM
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACTIVE. THE FIRST NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE EXITS THE
COAST LATE MON NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE REACHING THE OH VALLEY
LATE TUES. ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND TUES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TRACK
OF THE NRN STREAM LOW...WITH THE 27/12Z GFS LIFTING IT THRU NE...THE
27/12Z ECMWF THRU THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND THE 27/12Z CMC
THRU NC. BASED ON THE OVERALL PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW...PREFER THE NRN TRACK...KEEPING THE FA DRY. ASSOCIATED WEAK
COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION TUES NIGHT-WEDS. LIMITED
MOISTURE AND LITTLE APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL RESULT IN A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE. UPPER/SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ERN CONUS WEDS.
THEREAFTER...MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE HANDLING OF A SRN STREAM SYSTEM
LIFTING FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE GULF STATES WEDS-WEDS NIGHT.
GFS QUICKER TO RETURN MOISTURE TO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATES OFF THE SE COAST WEDS-WEDS NIGHT...WHILE ITS ECMWF AND CMC
COUNTERPARTS ARE SLOWER WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN. THEREAFTER...THE
NEXT NRN STREAM SYSTEM PROGGED TO REACH THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY
LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT SPATIAL AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST...WITH THE GFS PUSHING THE FRONT THRU 18
HRS BEFORE THE ECMWF (FRI VS. SAT MORNING). WILL MAINTAIN LOW END
CHANCE POPS BEGINNING THURS. WILL CARRY LOW END CHANCE POPS THROUGH
FRI...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM.

TEMPS TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED WILL BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONABLE
NORMS...IN THE 60S INLAND AND UPPER 50S-LOW 60S ERN SHORE AND
COASTAL AREAS. THURS HIGHS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON POTENTIAL CLOUD
COVER/PRECIP. HAVE OPTED FOR A BLEND...RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 INLAND AND LOW-MID 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL
AREAS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS HAS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA
THIS AFTN. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES FROM THE WEST SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES HAVE FREQUENTLY VARIED FROM VFR TO IFR
WITH MVFR BEING THE MOST PREDOMINANT CONDITION EXCEPT MOSTLY IFR AT
ECG. IT HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN THE TRENDS BUT BUFR
SOUNDINGS WOULD INDICATE AN OVERALL DECREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TOWARD EVENING. THE SOUNDINGS BECOME MORE SATURATED AGAIN WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE TROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. DID NOT LOWER
CEILINGS VERY MUCH DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND ANY PCPN WILL BE TOO
SPARSE AND UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. AN IMPROVING TREND
RETURNS TOWARD MIDDAY SATURDAY.

WINDS DIMINISH LATE TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS BUT THEY
STRENGTHEN AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING AS THE LOW OFF THE COAST
INTENSIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SHOULD
PROMOTE GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT HAS LOCATED OFF THE SE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE SC COAST.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
CURRENT OBS OVER THE WATER INDICATE NLY WINDS AVG 15-20 KT WITH
WAVES 2-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. SFC LOW LIFTS NEWD TONIGHT TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER SURGE TONIGHT. STRONGEST CAA ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
NW WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT OVER THE WATER.
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS SEWD THRU SAT NIGHT-SUN
MORNING...RESULTING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CAA. SCA CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THRU SUN MORNING UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY
BUILDS OVER THE WATER. WAVES GENERALLY 3-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. NW
WINDS SUBSIDE TO 10-15 KT SUN AFTERNOON WITH SEAS DROPPING BELOW 5
FT. EXTENDED SCA HEADLINES THRU SUN MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY
PASSES OVER THE REGION SUN...AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT. FLOW
SHIFTS TO THE SSW. THE NEXT (WEAK) COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W
LATE SUN. SW FLOW INCREASES LATE SUN NIGHT...WITH MODELS INDICATING
SCA CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BASED ON WAA AND COLD WATER...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE SCA CONDITIONS. VERY LITTLE CAA IN WAKE OF THE FRONT LATE
SUN NIGHT-MON MORNING...SO SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED
ATTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM
NEAR TERM...ALB/JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ/SAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 272016
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
416 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
QUITE A DIFFERENT AFTN ACRS THE FA.../W CLDNS...WIDESPREAD
RA...AND TEMPS AVGG 30-35F LWR THAN 24 HRS AGO. CDFNT FM EARLIER
TDA HAS SETTLED WELL TO THE SE. ONE FINAL SFC LO PRES WAVE TO
TRACK NE AND OFF THE CST OF NC BY LT THIS EVE. MOST WIDESPREAD OF
THE RA HAS SHIFTED TO MNLY ALG-E OF I95 SO FAR THIS AFTN...WILL
KEEP POPS HI (80-100%) MOST PLACES THROUGH EARLY THIS EVE AS TEMPS
HOVER MNLY FM 40-45F.

PCPN GENERALLY MOVES OFFSHORE AFT 00Z THIS EVE. HOWEVER...THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH (NOW EXTENDING FM LWR MI S THROUGH THE TN
VLY) WILL TEND TO KEEP ENOUGH UVM IN PLACE ALONG WITH LINGERING
MOISTURE TO TOUCH OFF SPOTTY SHRAS THROUGH THE OVRNGT HRS AS IT
APPROACHES FM THE W. WITH VERY COLD AIR ALOFT ARRIVING AFT
MDNGT...THERE COULD BE SN SHWRS OR MIXED RA/SN SHWRS. NO SN
ACCUM IS EXPECTED AND TRAVEL NOT LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED. LO TEMPS
TNGT FM NR 30F NW TO THE M/U30S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPR TROUGH MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON SAT...THEN OFFSHORE BY
SUN MRNG. HIGHS ON SAT ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE M/U40S.
IF THERE ARE ANY LINGERING SHWRS IN THE MORNING...THERE COULD
STILL BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. AFTN INSTABILITY W/ THE TROUGH
OVERHEAD WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD CUMULUS WHICH MAY RESULT
IN ISOLATED SHWRS THAT SHOULD STAY CONFINED ALONG THE COAST. ALL
SHWRS FINALLY COME TO AN END EARLY SAT EVE...THE SKY CLRS...AND
TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE 20S BY SUN MRNG.

SFC HIGH PRES MOVES ACRS THE RGN ON SUN. XPCG SUNNY/DRY/COOL WX
W/ LGT WINDS. LIMITED MIXING WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK WITH
READINGS ONLY RISING INTO THE M/U40S ALONG THE CST TO THE L/M50S
ACRS INTERIOR VA AND NE NC.

NEXT TROUGH ALOFT AND ACCOMPANYING SFC CDFNT TO CROSS THE RGN LT
SUN NGT/MON MRNG...W/ VRB CLDS AND LO PROB FOR PCPN (15-30%).
XPCG MORE OF A DP LYRD WSW LO LVL FLO ON MON LEADING TO BETTER
WARMING. SKY AVGG OUT PSNY ON MON...W/ HI TEMPS FM THE L/M60S
E...TO THE L70S W.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN PREVAILS THRU THE EXTENDED...AS NRN STREAM
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACTIVE. THE FIRST NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE EXITS THE
COAST LATE MON NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE REACHING THE OH VALLEY
LATE TUES. ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND TUES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TRACK
OF THE NRN STREAM LOW...WITH THE 27/12Z GFS LIFTING IT THRU NE...THE
27/12Z ECMWF THRU THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND THE 27/12Z CMC
THRU NC. BASED ON THE OVERALL PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW...PREFER THE NRN TRACK...KEEPING THE FA DRY. ASSOCIATED WEAK
COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION TUES NIGHT-WEDS. LIMITED
MOISTURE AND LITTLE APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL RESULT IN A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE. UPPER/SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ERN CONUS WEDS.
THEREAFTER...MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE HANDLING OF A SRN STREAM SYSTEM
LIFTING FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE GULF STATES WEDS-WEDS NIGHT.
GFS QUICKER TO RETURN MOISTURE TO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATES OFF THE SE COAST WEDS-WEDS NIGHT...WHILE ITS ECMWF AND CMC
COUNTERPARTS ARE SLOWER WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN. THEREAFTER...THE
NEXT NRN STREAM SYSTEM PROGGED TO REACH THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY
LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT SPATIAL AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST...WITH THE GFS PUSHING THE FRONT THRU 18
HRS BEFORE THE ECMWF (FRI VS. SAT MORNING). WILL MAINTAIN LOW END
CHANCE POPS BEGINNING THURS. WILL CARRY LOW END CHANCE POPS THROUGH
FRI...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM.

TEMPS TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED WILL BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONABLE
NORMS...IN THE 60S INLAND AND UPPER 50S-LOW 60S ERN SHORE AND
COASTAL AREAS. THURS HIGHS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON POTENTIAL CLOUD
COVER/PRECIP. HAVE OPTED FOR A BLEND...RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 INLAND AND LOW-MID 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL
AREAS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS HAS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA
THIS AFTN. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES FROM THE WEST SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES HAVE FREQUENTLY VARIED FROM VFR TO IFR
WITH MVFR BEING THE MOST PREDOMINANT CONDITION EXCEPT MOSTLY IFR AT
ECG. IT HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN THE TRENDS BUT BUFR
SOUNDINGS WOULD INDICATE AN OVERALL DECREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TOWARD EVENING. THE SOUNDINGS BECOME MORE SATURATED AGAIN WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE TROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. DID NOT LOWER
CEILINGS VERY MUCH DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND ANY PCPN WILL BE TOO
SPARSE AND UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. AN IMPROVING TREND
RETURNS TOWARD MIDDAY SATURDAY.

WINDS DIMINISH LATE TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS BUT THEY
STRENGTHEN AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING AS THE LOW OFF THE COAST
INTENSIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SHOULD
PROMOTE GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT HAS LOCATED OFF THE SE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE SC COAST.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
CURRENT OBS OVER THE WATER INDICATE NLY WINDS AVG 15-20 KT WITH
WAVES 2-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. SFC LOW LIFTS NEWD TONIGHT TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER SURGE TONIGHT. STRONGEST CAA ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
NW WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT OVER THE WATER.
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS SEWD THRU SAT NIGHT-SUN
MORNING...RESULTING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CAA. SCA CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THRU SUN MORNING UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY
BUILDS OVER THE WATER. WAVES GENERALLY 3-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. NW
WINDS SUBSIDE TO 10-15 KT SUN AFTERNOON WITH SEAS DROPPING BELOW 5
FT. EXTENDED SCA HEADLINES THRU SUN MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY
PASSES OVER THE REGION SUN...AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT. FLOW
SHIFTS TO THE SSW. THE NEXT (WEAK) COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W
LATE SUN. SW FLOW INCREASES LATE SUN NIGHT...WITH MODELS INDICATING
SCA CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BASED ON WAA AND COLD WATER...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE SCA CONDITIONS. VERY LITTLE CAA IN WAKE OF THE FRONT LATE
SUN NIGHT-MON MORNING...SO SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED
ATTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM
NEAR TERM...ALB/JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ/SAM



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271947
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
347 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
QUITE A DIFFERENT AFTN ACRS THE FA.../W CLDNS...WIDESPREAD
RA...AND TEMPS AVGG 30-35F LWR THAN 24 HRS AGO. CDFNT FM EARLIER
TDA HAS SETTLED WELL TO THE SE. ONE FINAL SFC LO PRES WAVE TO
TRACK NE AND OFF THE CST OF NC BY LT THIS EVE. MOST WIDESPREAD OF
THE RA HAS SHIFTED TO MNLY ALG-E OF I95 SO FAR THIS AFTN...WILL
KEEP POPS HI (80-100%) MOST PLACES THROUGH EARLY THIS EVE AS TEMPS
HOVER MNLY FM 40-45F.

PCPN GENERALLY MOVES OFFSHORE AFT 00Z THIS EVE. HOWEVER...THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH (NOW EXTENDING FM LWR MI S THROUGH THE TN
VLY) WILL TEND TO KEEP ENOUGH UVM IN PLACE ALONG WITH LINGERING
MOISTURE TO TOUCH OFF SPOTTY SHRAS THROUGH THE OVRNGT HRS AS IT
APPROACHES FM THE W. WITH VERY COLD AIR ALOFT ARRIVING AFT
MDNGT...THERE COULD BE SN SHWRS OR MIXED RA/SN SHWRS. NO SN
ACCUM IS EXPECTED AND TRAVEL NOT LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED. LO TEMPS
TNGT FM NR 30F NW TO THE M/U30S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPR TROUGH MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON SAT...THEN OFFSHORE BY
SUN MRNG. HIGHS ON SAT ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE M/U40S.
IF THERE ARE ANY LINGERING SHWRS IN THE MORNING...THERE COULD
STILL BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. AFTN INSTABILITY W/ THE TROUGH
OVERHEAD WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD CUMULUS WHICH MAY RESULT
IN ISOLATED SHWRS THAT SHOULD STAY CONFINED ALONG THE COAST. ALL
SHWRS FINALLY COME TO AN END EARLY SAT EVE...THE SKY CLRS...AND
TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE 20S BY SUN MRNG.

SFC HIGH PRES MOVES ACRS THE RGN ON SUN. XPCG SUNNY/DRY/COOL WX
W/ LGT WINDS. LIMITED MIXING WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK WITH
READINGS ONLY RISING INTO THE M/U40S ALONG THE CST TO THE L/M50S
ACRS INTERIOR VA AND NE NC.

NEXT TROUGH ALOFT AND ACCOMPANYING SFC CDFNT TO CROSS THE RGN LT
SUN NGT/MON MRNG...W/ VRB CLDS AND LO PROB FOR PCPN (15-30%).
XPCG MORE OF A DP LYRD WSW LO LVL FLO ON MON LEADING TO BETTER
WARMING. SKY AVGG OUT PSNY ON MON...W/ HI TEMPS FM THE L/M60S
E...TO THE L70S W.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN PREVAILS THRU THE EXTENDED...AS NRN STREAM
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACTIVE. THE FIRST NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE EXITS THE
COAST LATE MON NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE REACHING THE OH VALLEY
LATE TUES. ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND TUES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TRACK
OF THE NRN STREAM LOW...WITH THE 27/12Z GFS LIFTING IT THRU NE...THE
27/12Z ECMWF THRU THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND THE 27/12Z CMC
THRU NC. BASED ON THE OVERALL PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW...PREFER THE NRN TRACK...KEEPING THE FA DRY. ASSOCIATED WEAK
COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION TUES NIGHT-WEDS. LIMITED
MOISTURE AND LITTLE APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL RESULT IN A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE. UPPER/SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ERN CONUS WEDS.
THEREAFTER...MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE HANDLING OF A SRN STREAM SYSTEM
LIFTING FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE GULF STATES WEDS-WEDS NIGHT.
GFS QUICKER TO RETURN MOISTURE TO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATES OFF THE SE COAST WEDS-WEDS NIGHT...WHILE ITS ECMWF AND CMC
COUNTERPARTS ARE SLOWER WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN. THEREAFTER...THE
NEXT NRN STREAM SYSTEM PROGGED TO REACH THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY
LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT SPATIAL AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST...WITH THE GFS PUSHING THE FRONT THRU 18
HRS BEFORE THE ECMWF (FRI VS. SAT MORNING). WILL MAINTAIN LOW END
CHANCE POPS BEGINNING THURS. WILL CARRY LOW END CHANCE POPS THROUGH
FRI...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM.

TEMPS TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED WILL BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONABLE
NORMS...IN THE 60S INLAND AND UPPER 50S-LOW 60S ERN SHORE AND
COASTAL AREAS. THURS HIGHS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON POTENTIAL CLOUD
COVER/PRECIP. HAVE OPTED FOR A BLEND...RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 INLAND AND LOW-MID 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL
AREAS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS HAS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA
THIS AFTN. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES FROM THE WEST SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES HAVE FREQUENTLY VARIED FROM VFR TO IFR
WITH MVFR BEING THE MOST PREDOMINANT CONDITION EXCEPT MOSTLY IFR AT
ECG. IT HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN THE TRENDS BUT BUFR
SOUNDINGS WOULD INDICATE AN OVERALL DECREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TOWARD EVENING. THE SOUNDINGS BECOME MORE SATURATED AGAIN WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE TROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. DID NOT LOWER
CEILINGS VERY MUCH DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND ANY PCPN WILL BE TOO
SPARSE AND UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. AN IMPROVING TREND
RETURNS TOWARD MIDDAY SATURDAY.

WINDS DIMINISH LATE TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS BUT THEY
STRENGTHEN AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING AS THE LOW OFF THE COAST
INTENSIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SHOULD
PROMOTE GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MARINE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. EXPECT A WIND SHIFT FROM SSW TO N...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO
20-25KT. SEAS WILL RESPOND BUILDING TO 6-8FT WITH 3-4FT WAVES IN THE
BAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ALLOWING THE WIND TO DIMINISH. HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG
THE FRONT TONIGHT OFF THE NC COAST. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE NW LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CAA. SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO RESUME
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY WITH A NW WIND
AVERAGING 20-25KT LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE
DIMINISHING TO 15-20KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS SHOULD LINGER AROUND 4-
5 FT...WITH 3-4FT WAVES IN THE BAY RETURNING LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. CURRENT SCAS WILL BE EXTENDED THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE RIVERS WHERE THE LULL SHOULD
EXCEED 12 HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY PASSES OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY...AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING THE WIND TO
SHIFT TO SSW. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM
NEAR TERM...ALB/JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ/SAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271947
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
347 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
QUITE A DIFFERENT AFTN ACRS THE FA.../W CLDNS...WIDESPREAD
RA...AND TEMPS AVGG 30-35F LWR THAN 24 HRS AGO. CDFNT FM EARLIER
TDA HAS SETTLED WELL TO THE SE. ONE FINAL SFC LO PRES WAVE TO
TRACK NE AND OFF THE CST OF NC BY LT THIS EVE. MOST WIDESPREAD OF
THE RA HAS SHIFTED TO MNLY ALG-E OF I95 SO FAR THIS AFTN...WILL
KEEP POPS HI (80-100%) MOST PLACES THROUGH EARLY THIS EVE AS TEMPS
HOVER MNLY FM 40-45F.

PCPN GENERALLY MOVES OFFSHORE AFT 00Z THIS EVE. HOWEVER...THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH (NOW EXTENDING FM LWR MI S THROUGH THE TN
VLY) WILL TEND TO KEEP ENOUGH UVM IN PLACE ALONG WITH LINGERING
MOISTURE TO TOUCH OFF SPOTTY SHRAS THROUGH THE OVRNGT HRS AS IT
APPROACHES FM THE W. WITH VERY COLD AIR ALOFT ARRIVING AFT
MDNGT...THERE COULD BE SN SHWRS OR MIXED RA/SN SHWRS. NO SN
ACCUM IS EXPECTED AND TRAVEL NOT LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED. LO TEMPS
TNGT FM NR 30F NW TO THE M/U30S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPR TROUGH MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON SAT...THEN OFFSHORE BY
SUN MRNG. HIGHS ON SAT ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE M/U40S.
IF THERE ARE ANY LINGERING SHWRS IN THE MORNING...THERE COULD
STILL BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. AFTN INSTABILITY W/ THE TROUGH
OVERHEAD WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD CUMULUS WHICH MAY RESULT
IN ISOLATED SHWRS THAT SHOULD STAY CONFINED ALONG THE COAST. ALL
SHWRS FINALLY COME TO AN END EARLY SAT EVE...THE SKY CLRS...AND
TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE 20S BY SUN MRNG.

SFC HIGH PRES MOVES ACRS THE RGN ON SUN. XPCG SUNNY/DRY/COOL WX
W/ LGT WINDS. LIMITED MIXING WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK WITH
READINGS ONLY RISING INTO THE M/U40S ALONG THE CST TO THE L/M50S
ACRS INTERIOR VA AND NE NC.

NEXT TROUGH ALOFT AND ACCOMPANYING SFC CDFNT TO CROSS THE RGN LT
SUN NGT/MON MRNG...W/ VRB CLDS AND LO PROB FOR PCPN (15-30%).
XPCG MORE OF A DP LYRD WSW LO LVL FLO ON MON LEADING TO BETTER
WARMING. SKY AVGG OUT PSNY ON MON...W/ HI TEMPS FM THE L/M60S
E...TO THE L70S W.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN PREVAILS THRU THE EXTENDED...AS NRN STREAM
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACTIVE. THE FIRST NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE EXITS THE
COAST LATE MON NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE REACHING THE OH VALLEY
LATE TUES. ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND TUES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TRACK
OF THE NRN STREAM LOW...WITH THE 27/12Z GFS LIFTING IT THRU NE...THE
27/12Z ECMWF THRU THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND THE 27/12Z CMC
THRU NC. BASED ON THE OVERALL PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW...PREFER THE NRN TRACK...KEEPING THE FA DRY. ASSOCIATED WEAK
COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION TUES NIGHT-WEDS. LIMITED
MOISTURE AND LITTLE APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL RESULT IN A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE. UPPER/SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ERN CONUS WEDS.
THEREAFTER...MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE HANDLING OF A SRN STREAM SYSTEM
LIFTING FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE GULF STATES WEDS-WEDS NIGHT.
GFS QUICKER TO RETURN MOISTURE TO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATES OFF THE SE COAST WEDS-WEDS NIGHT...WHILE ITS ECMWF AND CMC
COUNTERPARTS ARE SLOWER WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN. THEREAFTER...THE
NEXT NRN STREAM SYSTEM PROGGED TO REACH THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY
LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT SPATIAL AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST...WITH THE GFS PUSHING THE FRONT THRU 18
HRS BEFORE THE ECMWF (FRI VS. SAT MORNING). WILL MAINTAIN LOW END
CHANCE POPS BEGINNING THURS. WILL CARRY LOW END CHANCE POPS THROUGH
FRI...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM.

TEMPS TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED WILL BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONABLE
NORMS...IN THE 60S INLAND AND UPPER 50S-LOW 60S ERN SHORE AND
COASTAL AREAS. THURS HIGHS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON POTENTIAL CLOUD
COVER/PRECIP. HAVE OPTED FOR A BLEND...RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 INLAND AND LOW-MID 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL
AREAS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS HAS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA
THIS AFTN. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES FROM THE WEST SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES HAVE FREQUENTLY VARIED FROM VFR TO IFR
WITH MVFR BEING THE MOST PREDOMINANT CONDITION EXCEPT MOSTLY IFR AT
ECG. IT HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN THE TRENDS BUT BUFR
SOUNDINGS WOULD INDICATE AN OVERALL DECREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TOWARD EVENING. THE SOUNDINGS BECOME MORE SATURATED AGAIN WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE TROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. DID NOT LOWER
CEILINGS VERY MUCH DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND ANY PCPN WILL BE TOO
SPARSE AND UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. AN IMPROVING TREND
RETURNS TOWARD MIDDAY SATURDAY.

WINDS DIMINISH LATE TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS BUT THEY
STRENGTHEN AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING AS THE LOW OFF THE COAST
INTENSIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SHOULD
PROMOTE GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MARINE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. EXPECT A WIND SHIFT FROM SSW TO N...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO
20-25KT. SEAS WILL RESPOND BUILDING TO 6-8FT WITH 3-4FT WAVES IN THE
BAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ALLOWING THE WIND TO DIMINISH. HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG
THE FRONT TONIGHT OFF THE NC COAST. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE NW LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CAA. SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO RESUME
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY WITH A NW WIND
AVERAGING 20-25KT LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE
DIMINISHING TO 15-20KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS SHOULD LINGER AROUND 4-
5 FT...WITH 3-4FT WAVES IN THE BAY RETURNING LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. CURRENT SCAS WILL BE EXTENDED THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE RIVERS WHERE THE LULL SHOULD
EXCEED 12 HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY PASSES OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY...AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING THE WIND TO
SHIFT TO SSW. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM
NEAR TERM...ALB/JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ/SAM



000
FXUS61 KRNK 271932
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
332 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MOISTURE APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT
AND SLIDE EAST ON SATURDAY. ANA-FRONT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION SLOWLY ENDING THE PRECIPITATION IN THE EAST. A SHORTWAVE WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH TONIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
COMBINE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW TO PRODUCE
UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN WESTERN MOUNTAINS. A
LIGHT COATING UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY IN THE NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS. IN CONTRAST...
THE DOWNSLOPING WINDS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL
GENERATE CLEARING ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT. SHAPED CLOUD COVER
TONIGHT TOWARDS THE CANADIAN TONIGHT. INITIALLY LEANED POPS TOWARDS
A BLEND OF HRRR...HIRESW-ARW AND NAM THEN MORE TOWARDS GFS WHICH
SEEMS TO CAPTURES UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION IN THE WEST BETTER
TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TEENS
IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE PIEDMONT.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SATURDAY
AND BRING AN END TO ANY LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE FAR
WESTERN SLOPES. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE CHILLY WITH READINGS
FROM THE MID 20S IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT FRIDAY...

VERY COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ABOUT OVERHEAD THE
MOUNTAINS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH OPTIMAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND VERY DRY AIR. GIVEN
85H TEMPS OF BETWEEN -10 AND -15C SHOULD SEE TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE
TEENS IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S EAST PENDING
JUST HOW FAST WINDS DECOUPLE. THUS TRENDED ON THE COLD SIDE OF MOS
WHICH WILL PUSH LOWS TO AT OR BELOW RECORD LEVELS BY EARLY SUNDAY IN
SPOTS PER THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING QUICK CHANGES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
PASSING SHORTWAVE RIDGING BEING REPLACED BY ANOTHER UPSTREAM 5H TROUGH
AND SUBSEQUENT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY. FAST REBOUND WITH WARM
ADVECTION DEVELOPING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING HIGH ON SUNDAY
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RECOVER TO THE UPPER 40S-MID 50S GIVEN HEATING OF
DRY AIR DESPITE SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS LATE. PRE-FRONTAL
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT WILL ALSO ARRIVE PRETTY QUICK SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH MODELS SHOWING AN AXIS OF SHOWERS PUSHING ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS BY MIDNIGHT AND THEN EXITING TO THE SOUTH BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SUPPORTS GOING FROM BASICALLY DRY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING
TO HIGH CHANCE OR LOW LIKELYS MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND CHANCES SOUTH-
WEST MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT LOW TEMPS TO REMAIN JUST WARM
ENOUGH...MOSTLY 30S TO SEE MOSTLY LIQUID PTYPE WITH ONLY THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE NW SEEING THINGS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS.
WINDS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AN ISSUE GIVEN SQUEEZING OF THE
GRADIENT WITH THE FRONT BUT FOR NOW APPEARS SHOULD STAY MOSTLY BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS GIVEN A MARGINAL 85H JET AND UNIMPRESSIVE PRESSURE
RISES. OTRW HIGHS MONDAY MOSTLY 50S WEST TO MID/UPPER 60S EAST PER
STRONG DOWNSLOPE AND MORE SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT FRIDAY...

NW FLOW ALOFT PER CONTINUED UPPER TROFFINESS ACROSS THE NE STATES WILL
KEEP PERIODIC PIECES OF CLIPPER ENERGY FLOWING SE INTO MIDWEEK WITH
PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NW WITH A STRONGER FRONT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED SO THINKING MAY STAY DRY WITH THE
CORE OF THESE FEATURES WELL NORTH SUPPORTING ONLY ISOLATED POPS AT THIS
POINT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. BOUNDARY SHOULD DRIVE THROUGH THE
REGION BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO BRING EVEN
DRIER WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH TEMPERATURE MODERATION UNDER
GRADUAL 85H WARMING.

MODELS CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON BOTH LEAD SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY HEADING
EAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER IN THE WEEK IN ADVANCE OF
MORE PRONOUNCED DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM 5H TROFFINESS BY THURSDAY.
ALTHOUGH PHASING LOOKS RATHER UNLIKELY...APPEARS DEEPENING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF WILL BE IN PLACE ALLOWING AN INITIAL SHOT OF
SHOWERS TO GET LIFTED NORTH OUT OF THE DAMPENING SOUTHERN WAVE. THIS
ALONG A SURFACE WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN TROUGH/COLD FRONT THAT
SHOULD ENHANCE LIFT ESPCLY WESTERN HALF LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY EVENING. THUS RUNNING WITH MAINLY LOW POPS MOUNTAINS WED NIGHT
AND HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELYS THURSDAY GIVEN THE OVERRUNNING NATURE TO THE
WARM ADVECTION PRECIP. WEAK COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY FRIDAY BUT
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR THROUGH THE REGION THE BOUNDARY MAKES IT IF AT
ALL GIVEN DIFFERING GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS OF MORE ENERGY SPILLING INTO THE
UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST. FOR NOW WILL RUN WITH CHANCE POPS ON FRIDAY
WHICH SUPPORTS THE PREVIOUS SLOWER EC SOLUTION.

TEMPS TO REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY MID OR LATE WEEK GIVEN
FLATTER FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION BY WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY WHEN SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD 60S/70S FOR HIGHS.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 152 PM EDT FRIDAY...

SCT TO BKN MVFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
PATCHES OF MVFR/ISOLD IFR CONDITIONS IN THE EAST WITH BACK-EDGE
OF ANA-FRONT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AS THE RAIN ENDS. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN UPSLOPE
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...WHILE
DOWNSLOPING EAST OF MOUNTAINS WILL PRODUCE DRYING TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT ON WESTERN SLOPE AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.

VFR CONDITIONS AREA EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEHIND
A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 455 AM EDT FRIDAY...

RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 29:

ROANOKE......19 IN 1982
BLACKSBURG...17 IN 2001
LYNCHBURG....23 IN 1923 AND 1982
DANVILLE.....23 IN 1966
BLUEFIELD....19 IN 1966 AND 1982
LEWISBURG....18 IN 1983

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...AMS/KK
CLIMATE...AMS/SK




000
FXUS61 KRNK 271932
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
332 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MOISTURE APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT
AND SLIDE EAST ON SATURDAY. ANA-FRONT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION SLOWLY ENDING THE PRECIPITATION IN THE EAST. A SHORTWAVE WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH TONIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
COMBINE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW TO PRODUCE
UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN WESTERN MOUNTAINS. A
LIGHT COATING UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY IN THE NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS. IN CONTRAST...
THE DOWNSLOPING WINDS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL
GENERATE CLEARING ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT. SHAPED CLOUD COVER
TONIGHT TOWARDS THE CANADIAN TONIGHT. INITIALLY LEANED POPS TOWARDS
A BLEND OF HRRR...HIRESW-ARW AND NAM THEN MORE TOWARDS GFS WHICH
SEEMS TO CAPTURES UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION IN THE WEST BETTER
TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TEENS
IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE PIEDMONT.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SATURDAY
AND BRING AN END TO ANY LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE FAR
WESTERN SLOPES. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE CHILLY WITH READINGS
FROM THE MID 20S IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT FRIDAY...

VERY COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ABOUT OVERHEAD THE
MOUNTAINS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH OPTIMAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND VERY DRY AIR. GIVEN
85H TEMPS OF BETWEEN -10 AND -15C SHOULD SEE TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE
TEENS IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S EAST PENDING
JUST HOW FAST WINDS DECOUPLE. THUS TRENDED ON THE COLD SIDE OF MOS
WHICH WILL PUSH LOWS TO AT OR BELOW RECORD LEVELS BY EARLY SUNDAY IN
SPOTS PER THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING QUICK CHANGES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
PASSING SHORTWAVE RIDGING BEING REPLACED BY ANOTHER UPSTREAM 5H TROUGH
AND SUBSEQUENT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY. FAST REBOUND WITH WARM
ADVECTION DEVELOPING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING HIGH ON SUNDAY
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RECOVER TO THE UPPER 40S-MID 50S GIVEN HEATING OF
DRY AIR DESPITE SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS LATE. PRE-FRONTAL
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT WILL ALSO ARRIVE PRETTY QUICK SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH MODELS SHOWING AN AXIS OF SHOWERS PUSHING ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS BY MIDNIGHT AND THEN EXITING TO THE SOUTH BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SUPPORTS GOING FROM BASICALLY DRY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING
TO HIGH CHANCE OR LOW LIKELYS MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND CHANCES SOUTH-
WEST MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT LOW TEMPS TO REMAIN JUST WARM
ENOUGH...MOSTLY 30S TO SEE MOSTLY LIQUID PTYPE WITH ONLY THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE NW SEEING THINGS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS.
WINDS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AN ISSUE GIVEN SQUEEZING OF THE
GRADIENT WITH THE FRONT BUT FOR NOW APPEARS SHOULD STAY MOSTLY BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS GIVEN A MARGINAL 85H JET AND UNIMPRESSIVE PRESSURE
RISES. OTRW HIGHS MONDAY MOSTLY 50S WEST TO MID/UPPER 60S EAST PER
STRONG DOWNSLOPE AND MORE SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT FRIDAY...

NW FLOW ALOFT PER CONTINUED UPPER TROFFINESS ACROSS THE NE STATES WILL
KEEP PERIODIC PIECES OF CLIPPER ENERGY FLOWING SE INTO MIDWEEK WITH
PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NW WITH A STRONGER FRONT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED SO THINKING MAY STAY DRY WITH THE
CORE OF THESE FEATURES WELL NORTH SUPPORTING ONLY ISOLATED POPS AT THIS
POINT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. BOUNDARY SHOULD DRIVE THROUGH THE
REGION BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO BRING EVEN
DRIER WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH TEMPERATURE MODERATION UNDER
GRADUAL 85H WARMING.

MODELS CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON BOTH LEAD SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY HEADING
EAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER IN THE WEEK IN ADVANCE OF
MORE PRONOUNCED DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM 5H TROFFINESS BY THURSDAY.
ALTHOUGH PHASING LOOKS RATHER UNLIKELY...APPEARS DEEPENING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF WILL BE IN PLACE ALLOWING AN INITIAL SHOT OF
SHOWERS TO GET LIFTED NORTH OUT OF THE DAMPENING SOUTHERN WAVE. THIS
ALONG A SURFACE WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN TROUGH/COLD FRONT THAT
SHOULD ENHANCE LIFT ESPCLY WESTERN HALF LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY EVENING. THUS RUNNING WITH MAINLY LOW POPS MOUNTAINS WED NIGHT
AND HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELYS THURSDAY GIVEN THE OVERRUNNING NATURE TO THE
WARM ADVECTION PRECIP. WEAK COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY FRIDAY BUT
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR THROUGH THE REGION THE BOUNDARY MAKES IT IF AT
ALL GIVEN DIFFERING GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS OF MORE ENERGY SPILLING INTO THE
UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST. FOR NOW WILL RUN WITH CHANCE POPS ON FRIDAY
WHICH SUPPORTS THE PREVIOUS SLOWER EC SOLUTION.

TEMPS TO REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY MID OR LATE WEEK GIVEN
FLATTER FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION BY WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY WHEN SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD 60S/70S FOR HIGHS.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 152 PM EDT FRIDAY...

SCT TO BKN MVFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
PATCHES OF MVFR/ISOLD IFR CONDITIONS IN THE EAST WITH BACK-EDGE
OF ANA-FRONT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AS THE RAIN ENDS. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN UPSLOPE
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...WHILE
DOWNSLOPING EAST OF MOUNTAINS WILL PRODUCE DRYING TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT ON WESTERN SLOPE AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.

VFR CONDITIONS AREA EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEHIND
A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 455 AM EDT FRIDAY...

RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 29:

ROANOKE......19 IN 1982
BLACKSBURG...17 IN 2001
LYNCHBURG....23 IN 1923 AND 1982
DANVILLE.....23 IN 1966
BLUEFIELD....19 IN 1966 AND 1982
LEWISBURG....18 IN 1983

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...AMS/KK
CLIMATE...AMS/SK



000
FXUS61 KRNK 271932
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
332 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MOISTURE APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT
AND SLIDE EAST ON SATURDAY. ANA-FRONT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION SLOWLY ENDING THE PRECIPITATION IN THE EAST. A SHORTWAVE WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH TONIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
COMBINE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW TO PRODUCE
UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN WESTERN MOUNTAINS. A
LIGHT COATING UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY IN THE NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS. IN CONTRAST...
THE DOWNSLOPING WINDS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL
GENERATE CLEARING ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT. SHAPED CLOUD COVER
TONIGHT TOWARDS THE CANADIAN TONIGHT. INITIALLY LEANED POPS TOWARDS
A BLEND OF HRRR...HIRESW-ARW AND NAM THEN MORE TOWARDS GFS WHICH
SEEMS TO CAPTURES UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION IN THE WEST BETTER
TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TEENS
IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE PIEDMONT.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SATURDAY
AND BRING AN END TO ANY LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE FAR
WESTERN SLOPES. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE CHILLY WITH READINGS
FROM THE MID 20S IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT FRIDAY...

VERY COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ABOUT OVERHEAD THE
MOUNTAINS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH OPTIMAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND VERY DRY AIR. GIVEN
85H TEMPS OF BETWEEN -10 AND -15C SHOULD SEE TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE
TEENS IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S EAST PENDING
JUST HOW FAST WINDS DECOUPLE. THUS TRENDED ON THE COLD SIDE OF MOS
WHICH WILL PUSH LOWS TO AT OR BELOW RECORD LEVELS BY EARLY SUNDAY IN
SPOTS PER THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING QUICK CHANGES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
PASSING SHORTWAVE RIDGING BEING REPLACED BY ANOTHER UPSTREAM 5H TROUGH
AND SUBSEQUENT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY. FAST REBOUND WITH WARM
ADVECTION DEVELOPING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING HIGH ON SUNDAY
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RECOVER TO THE UPPER 40S-MID 50S GIVEN HEATING OF
DRY AIR DESPITE SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS LATE. PRE-FRONTAL
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT WILL ALSO ARRIVE PRETTY QUICK SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH MODELS SHOWING AN AXIS OF SHOWERS PUSHING ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS BY MIDNIGHT AND THEN EXITING TO THE SOUTH BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SUPPORTS GOING FROM BASICALLY DRY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING
TO HIGH CHANCE OR LOW LIKELYS MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND CHANCES SOUTH-
WEST MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT LOW TEMPS TO REMAIN JUST WARM
ENOUGH...MOSTLY 30S TO SEE MOSTLY LIQUID PTYPE WITH ONLY THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE NW SEEING THINGS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS.
WINDS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AN ISSUE GIVEN SQUEEZING OF THE
GRADIENT WITH THE FRONT BUT FOR NOW APPEARS SHOULD STAY MOSTLY BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS GIVEN A MARGINAL 85H JET AND UNIMPRESSIVE PRESSURE
RISES. OTRW HIGHS MONDAY MOSTLY 50S WEST TO MID/UPPER 60S EAST PER
STRONG DOWNSLOPE AND MORE SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT FRIDAY...

NW FLOW ALOFT PER CONTINUED UPPER TROFFINESS ACROSS THE NE STATES WILL
KEEP PERIODIC PIECES OF CLIPPER ENERGY FLOWING SE INTO MIDWEEK WITH
PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NW WITH A STRONGER FRONT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED SO THINKING MAY STAY DRY WITH THE
CORE OF THESE FEATURES WELL NORTH SUPPORTING ONLY ISOLATED POPS AT THIS
POINT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. BOUNDARY SHOULD DRIVE THROUGH THE
REGION BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO BRING EVEN
DRIER WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH TEMPERATURE MODERATION UNDER
GRADUAL 85H WARMING.

MODELS CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON BOTH LEAD SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY HEADING
EAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER IN THE WEEK IN ADVANCE OF
MORE PRONOUNCED DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM 5H TROFFINESS BY THURSDAY.
ALTHOUGH PHASING LOOKS RATHER UNLIKELY...APPEARS DEEPENING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF WILL BE IN PLACE ALLOWING AN INITIAL SHOT OF
SHOWERS TO GET LIFTED NORTH OUT OF THE DAMPENING SOUTHERN WAVE. THIS
ALONG A SURFACE WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN TROUGH/COLD FRONT THAT
SHOULD ENHANCE LIFT ESPCLY WESTERN HALF LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY EVENING. THUS RUNNING WITH MAINLY LOW POPS MOUNTAINS WED NIGHT
AND HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELYS THURSDAY GIVEN THE OVERRUNNING NATURE TO THE
WARM ADVECTION PRECIP. WEAK COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY FRIDAY BUT
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR THROUGH THE REGION THE BOUNDARY MAKES IT IF AT
ALL GIVEN DIFFERING GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS OF MORE ENERGY SPILLING INTO THE
UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST. FOR NOW WILL RUN WITH CHANCE POPS ON FRIDAY
WHICH SUPPORTS THE PREVIOUS SLOWER EC SOLUTION.

TEMPS TO REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY MID OR LATE WEEK GIVEN
FLATTER FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION BY WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY WHEN SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD 60S/70S FOR HIGHS.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 152 PM EDT FRIDAY...

SCT TO BKN MVFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
PATCHES OF MVFR/ISOLD IFR CONDITIONS IN THE EAST WITH BACK-EDGE
OF ANA-FRONT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AS THE RAIN ENDS. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN UPSLOPE
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...WHILE
DOWNSLOPING EAST OF MOUNTAINS WILL PRODUCE DRYING TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT ON WESTERN SLOPE AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.

VFR CONDITIONS AREA EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEHIND
A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 455 AM EDT FRIDAY...

RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 29:

ROANOKE......19 IN 1982
BLACKSBURG...17 IN 2001
LYNCHBURG....23 IN 1923 AND 1982
DANVILLE.....23 IN 1966
BLUEFIELD....19 IN 1966 AND 1982
LEWISBURG....18 IN 1983

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...AMS/KK
CLIMATE...AMS/SK




000
FXUS61 KRNK 271932
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
332 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MOISTURE APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT
AND SLIDE EAST ON SATURDAY. ANA-FRONT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION SLOWLY ENDING THE PRECIPITATION IN THE EAST. A SHORTWAVE WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH TONIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
COMBINE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW TO PRODUCE
UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN WESTERN MOUNTAINS. A
LIGHT COATING UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY IN THE NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS. IN CONTRAST...
THE DOWNSLOPING WINDS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL
GENERATE CLEARING ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT. SHAPED CLOUD COVER
TONIGHT TOWARDS THE CANADIAN TONIGHT. INITIALLY LEANED POPS TOWARDS
A BLEND OF HRRR...HIRESW-ARW AND NAM THEN MORE TOWARDS GFS WHICH
SEEMS TO CAPTURES UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION IN THE WEST BETTER
TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TEENS
IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE PIEDMONT.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SATURDAY
AND BRING AN END TO ANY LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE FAR
WESTERN SLOPES. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE CHILLY WITH READINGS
FROM THE MID 20S IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT FRIDAY...

VERY COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ABOUT OVERHEAD THE
MOUNTAINS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH OPTIMAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND VERY DRY AIR. GIVEN
85H TEMPS OF BETWEEN -10 AND -15C SHOULD SEE TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE
TEENS IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S EAST PENDING
JUST HOW FAST WINDS DECOUPLE. THUS TRENDED ON THE COLD SIDE OF MOS
WHICH WILL PUSH LOWS TO AT OR BELOW RECORD LEVELS BY EARLY SUNDAY IN
SPOTS PER THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING QUICK CHANGES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
PASSING SHORTWAVE RIDGING BEING REPLACED BY ANOTHER UPSTREAM 5H TROUGH
AND SUBSEQUENT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY. FAST REBOUND WITH WARM
ADVECTION DEVELOPING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING HIGH ON SUNDAY
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RECOVER TO THE UPPER 40S-MID 50S GIVEN HEATING OF
DRY AIR DESPITE SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS LATE. PRE-FRONTAL
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT WILL ALSO ARRIVE PRETTY QUICK SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH MODELS SHOWING AN AXIS OF SHOWERS PUSHING ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS BY MIDNIGHT AND THEN EXITING TO THE SOUTH BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SUPPORTS GOING FROM BASICALLY DRY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING
TO HIGH CHANCE OR LOW LIKELYS MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND CHANCES SOUTH-
WEST MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT LOW TEMPS TO REMAIN JUST WARM
ENOUGH...MOSTLY 30S TO SEE MOSTLY LIQUID PTYPE WITH ONLY THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE NW SEEING THINGS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS.
WINDS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AN ISSUE GIVEN SQUEEZING OF THE
GRADIENT WITH THE FRONT BUT FOR NOW APPEARS SHOULD STAY MOSTLY BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS GIVEN A MARGINAL 85H JET AND UNIMPRESSIVE PRESSURE
RISES. OTRW HIGHS MONDAY MOSTLY 50S WEST TO MID/UPPER 60S EAST PER
STRONG DOWNSLOPE AND MORE SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT FRIDAY...

NW FLOW ALOFT PER CONTINUED UPPER TROFFINESS ACROSS THE NE STATES WILL
KEEP PERIODIC PIECES OF CLIPPER ENERGY FLOWING SE INTO MIDWEEK WITH
PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NW WITH A STRONGER FRONT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED SO THINKING MAY STAY DRY WITH THE
CORE OF THESE FEATURES WELL NORTH SUPPORTING ONLY ISOLATED POPS AT THIS
POINT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. BOUNDARY SHOULD DRIVE THROUGH THE
REGION BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO BRING EVEN
DRIER WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH TEMPERATURE MODERATION UNDER
GRADUAL 85H WARMING.

MODELS CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON BOTH LEAD SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY HEADING
EAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER IN THE WEEK IN ADVANCE OF
MORE PRONOUNCED DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM 5H TROFFINESS BY THURSDAY.
ALTHOUGH PHASING LOOKS RATHER UNLIKELY...APPEARS DEEPENING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF WILL BE IN PLACE ALLOWING AN INITIAL SHOT OF
SHOWERS TO GET LIFTED NORTH OUT OF THE DAMPENING SOUTHERN WAVE. THIS
ALONG A SURFACE WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN TROUGH/COLD FRONT THAT
SHOULD ENHANCE LIFT ESPCLY WESTERN HALF LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY EVENING. THUS RUNNING WITH MAINLY LOW POPS MOUNTAINS WED NIGHT
AND HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELYS THURSDAY GIVEN THE OVERRUNNING NATURE TO THE
WARM ADVECTION PRECIP. WEAK COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY FRIDAY BUT
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR THROUGH THE REGION THE BOUNDARY MAKES IT IF AT
ALL GIVEN DIFFERING GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS OF MORE ENERGY SPILLING INTO THE
UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST. FOR NOW WILL RUN WITH CHANCE POPS ON FRIDAY
WHICH SUPPORTS THE PREVIOUS SLOWER EC SOLUTION.

TEMPS TO REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY MID OR LATE WEEK GIVEN
FLATTER FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION BY WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY WHEN SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD 60S/70S FOR HIGHS.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 152 PM EDT FRIDAY...

SCT TO BKN MVFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
PATCHES OF MVFR/ISOLD IFR CONDITIONS IN THE EAST WITH BACK-EDGE
OF ANA-FRONT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AS THE RAIN ENDS. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN UPSLOPE
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...WHILE
DOWNSLOPING EAST OF MOUNTAINS WILL PRODUCE DRYING TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT ON WESTERN SLOPE AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.

VFR CONDITIONS AREA EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEHIND
A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 455 AM EDT FRIDAY...

RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 29:

ROANOKE......19 IN 1982
BLACKSBURG...17 IN 2001
LYNCHBURG....23 IN 1923 AND 1982
DANVILLE.....23 IN 1966
BLUEFIELD....19 IN 1966 AND 1982
LEWISBURG....18 IN 1983

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...AMS/KK
CLIMATE...AMS/SK



000
FXUS61 KLWX 271859
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCU