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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 232038
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
338 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE EAST
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY INDICATES A POTENT TROUGH LIFTING NE INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...WITH MOISTURE FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE
GULF. AT THE SURFACE...A 995MB LOW IS DEVELOPING OVER NRN MS...WITH
A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS AL AND GA. LOCALLY...MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 50S OVER THE BULK OF THE AREA...TO
THE LOW 60S OVER SE PORTIONS. AREAS OF -RA HAVE BEGUN TO ENTER THE
SW PIEDMONT COUNTIES AND INTERIOR NE NC.

THE WARM FRONT WITH STRONG VERTICAL MOTION WILL CROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD DUE
TO A STRONG NEARLY 70KT LLJ. 12HR POPS FOR RAIN TONIGHT WILL REMAIN
AT 100%...AND WILL BE HIGHEST OVER WRN PORTIONS THROUGH SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARD THE COAST OVERNIGHT. A
THUNDER MENTION WILL CONTINUE FOR COASTAL NE NC. COASTAL ERN VA AND
SE MD COULD HEAR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IT. SPC HAS CONTINUED A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE FOR NE NC COUNTIES IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE...AND ANY
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR APPEARS TO ARRIVE ONCE THE STRONGEST FORCING EXITS
THE REGION...SO THE SEVERE THREAT IS MINIMAL. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND 6HR PRESSURE FALLS OF -6MB TO -10MB PER GFS WILL RESULT
IN BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF THE COAST.
GUSTS FROM THE SSE DIRECTION OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT
LOWS SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 50S...WITH READINGS LIKELY TO RISE
AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG FORCING AND SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE SHOULD
RESULT IN A ~6HR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN
TONIGHT...WITH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS AVERAGING 0.5 TO 0.75IN N-CENTRAL
PORTIONS AND 1.00-1.25IN NEAR THE COAST (AND NE NC).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NNE OF THE REGION BY 12Z MON...WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING TOWARD THE FAR WRN COUNTIES BY 00Z TUE. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE MON MORNING...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING
EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY INLAND. A GUSTY SW WIND WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S (SEE THE CLIMO
SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS). 20-30% POPS WILL BE CONFINED TO E/SE
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS THE 23/12Z NAM REMAINS AN OUTLIER IN
LINGERING DEEPER MOISTURE.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT AND TUE. PARTIAL
CLEARING IS EXPECTED INLAND. CLOUDS POTENTIALLY LINGER NEAR THE
COAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE...AND LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER TUE. HIGHS TUE
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO LOW 60S SE...AFTER MORNING
LOWS FROM THE MID 40S NW...TO LOW/MID 50S SE.

23/12Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEMONSTRATE AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NEAR THE SOUTHEAST CONUS LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT. THIS LOW THEN TRACKS NNE
ALONG THE COAST WED BRINGING RA TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON A BUSY
TRAVEL DAY. OF NOTE THE 23/12Z NAM IS FLATTER AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE...BUT AT THIS TIME THE GFS/ECMWF SCENARIO IS PREFERRED
PER PMDHMD. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST SOME WET SN COULD MIX IN AS THE
PCPN TAPERS OFF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO ANY
ACCUMULATION IS LOW AT THIS TIME...AS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO COOL
THE BOUNDARY LAYER FULLY BY DYNAMICAL COOLING AS ANY CAA IS MINIMAL.
CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE OFF THE 23/00Z GFS SUGGESTS THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SN WILL BE ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES.
CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 30S/LOW
40S INLAND...TO THE MID/UPPER 40S OVER SE PORTIONS...AND THESE WILL
LIKELY OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z/23 RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF COMING MORE INTO LINE WRT PTNTL
LO PRES DEVELOPING ALG STALLED FNTL BNDRY NR THE SE CONUS CST LT
TUE/TUE NGT...THEN TRACKING NNE ALG THE CST WED INTO WED NGT. A
BUSY PD OF TRAVEL MIDWEEK INCRSLY LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY
RA...AND AS PTNTL CSTL STM WINDS DOWN (LT WED/WED NGT)...MDL TEMP
PROFILES SUGGEST PSBL RA ENDING AS WET SN INLAND. HAVE NUDGED POPS
UP TO 70-80% E PORTION W...40-60% INLAND ON WED.

PCPN/MOIST THEN MOVES E OF THE AREA AND OFF THE CST LATER WED
WED NGT...WITH POPS DIMINISHING FM W TO E. A MAINLY DRY FRONT
SWINGS ACRS THE AREA THU AFTN INTO EARLY FRI MORNG. HI PRES WILL
THEN BLD INTO AND OVR THE REGION FRI THRU SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE L40S W AND M/U40S E WED...IN THE U40S TO L50S THU...IN THE
M/U40S FRI...AND RANGE THRU THE 40S SAT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S TO LWR 40S WED MORNG...IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S THU AND
FRI MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S SAT MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY
FROM THE COAST AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
THIS IS PUSHING ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS AND
IT WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
INITIALLY...JUST SEEING SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER MOST OF THE
AREA...BUT SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE SLIDING NORTH THROUGH THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT. AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TN RIVER
VALLEY TONIGHT...THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT UP THE COAST
AND SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN 6Z AND 9Z. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. ALSO
EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SE TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUST.

BEHIND THE FRONT...AFTER 9Z...THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
AND STILL BE GUSTY TO AROUND 15 KTS. BUT ONCE IN THE WARM
SECTOR...SHOULD SLOWLY SEE CEILINGS IMPROVE AND COULD POTENTIALLY
SEE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER 15Z...AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVING IN
AND MIXING HELP CEILINGS TO RISE.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS COMES ON WEDNESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NE ALONG THE COAST SPREADING RAIN AND LOW
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST UPDATED WITH AN UPGRADE TO GALE WARNING OVR THE OCEAN.
DESPITE WARM AIR OVR COOL WATER TEMPS...WITH A STRONG PRES
GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT AND WEAK LO PRES
DEVELOPMENT OVR NRN VA...AND LATEST NAM12 PROGGING 925 MB WINDS
~75 KT...THINK THAT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW HRS OF WINDS AOA
34 KT OVR THE OCEAN TNGT. SEAS WILL REACH 6-8 FT. GUSTS MAY COME
CLOSE TO GALE FORCE OVR THE BAY AS WELL (AT LEAST AT ELEVATED
SITES) WHERE STRONG SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. ALSO
MAINTAINED THE SCA HEADLINES FOR THE OTHER WTRS. THE GALE WARNING
ENDS LATE MON MORNING...BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED AS GUSTS COULD
CONTINUE IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE THRU THE AFTN HRS. THE SCA
HEADLINES ALL END DURING THE DAY MON AS WINDS DECREASE JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRNT WHICH CROSSES THE WTRS LATE MON NGT/TUE MORNG.
IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS THEN INTO TUE WITH HI PRES OVR THE
AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED MONDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

RIC 76 1979
ORF 78 1983
SBY 78 1931
ECG 77 1983

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ633-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632.
     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...ALB/TMG
AVIATION...ESS
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...AKQ




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000
FXUS61 KRNK 232038
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
338 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THE RAIN
MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT...AND WINDS
WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION AND
OTHER HIGH ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...BEFORE
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...RETURNING
TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL STORM TO IMPACT PARTS OF THE MID
ATLANTIC FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST SUNDAY...

WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COUNTIES OF TAZEWELL AND
SMYTH IN VIRGINIA AND MERCER IN WEST VIRGINIA...WHERE THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST JET TO TRANSLATE TO
LOWER ELEVATIONS. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM PIVOT THE THE 85O MB JET
JUST TO OUR WEST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.

THE WARM FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE ADVANCE OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS QUITE SLOW. REGIONAL WSR-88D IMAGES INDICATED THAT LIGHT RAIN
HAS ADVANCE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA INTO TONIGHT. THE
RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT. NOT
EXPECTING ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS WITH FORECASTED RAIN RATES.

THE SWODY1 HAS THE CHANCE OF A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM FOR OUR REGION
BUT CLOUDS AND RAIN ARE HINDERING THE INSTABILITY...DESPITE THE
HEALTHY SHEAR. WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDING ANY EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM AT
THIS TIME...BUT CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
IN THE SOUTHEAST.

TONIGHT...THE 850 MB FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO AND ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. ONCE THE WARM FRONT SURGES THROUGH
TONIGHT...A DRY SLOT WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST AND SHOULD TAPER OFF
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. USED A NON-DIURNAL
CURVE FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY FROM THE LOWER
40S TO THE LOWER 50S.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL 500H TROUGH WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
CONUS FOR MONDAY TO START THE WORKWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST MONDAY. A WARM SECTOR SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN A
BREEZY MILD MONDAY. 1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES OF 565-570DM AND
850H TEMPERATURES AROUND PLUS 10C SUPPORT SURFACE TEMPERATURES FROM
AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE DAY... WITH
GFS SOLUTION A LITTLE QUICKER THAN THE NAM/ECMWF.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 338 PM EST SUNDAY...

ON MONDAY NIGHT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS BANKED UP AGAINST THE WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. MODELS ERODE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY MORNING.

OVERALL PATTERN THIS TIME FRAME IS FOR SPLIT FLOW WITH AN ACTIVE
NORTHERN STREAM ALONG THE CANADIAN/NORTHERN U.S. BORDER AND SOUTHERN
STREAM THAT HAS A STRONG SHORT WAVE AT THE BASE OF THE TROF OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE TUESDAY. EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF
LONG WAVE TROF FROM POSITIVE TILT TO NEGATIVE TILT AND AMOUNT OF
PHASING BETWEEN THE TWO JET STREAMS WILL IMPACT THE RESULTING TRACK
OF THE GULF TO EAST COAST SURFACE LOW AND LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME SPREAD IN DIFFERENT MODELS IS LARGE.
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS WITH THE TIMING BUT MUCH LOWER WITH THE
LOCATION AND TYPE OF PRECIPITATION. WILL BE LEANING TOWARD BLEND OF
THE ECMWF AND GFS AS SUGGESTED BY WPC.

MODELS SHOW MID ATLANTIC REGION IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A 170
KNOT UPPER JET BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE THE COLD FRONT
MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON TUESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO ON TUESDAY...THEN TRACKS
ACROSS FLORIDA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW SHOULD BE OFF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST AND BEGINS
TO DEEPEN.

ONCE THE LOCATION OF THE PRECIPITATION IS DETERMINED...TEMPERATURES
WILL INFLUENCE WHAT TYPE OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. EVEN TAKING THE
COOLER MET/SREF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...SURFACE VALUES MAY STILL BE TOO WARM EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE TO SUPPORT ANYTHING BUT RAIN. HAVE USED PARTIAL THICKNESS
VALUES...MAINLY FROM THE GFS/ECMWF TO PLACE RAIN/SNOW LINE. THIS
WILL CHANGE AS THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER.

LOOKED AT PROBABILITY FOR SNOW AND CORRELATION WITH PAST ANALOG
EVENTS. APPEARS THERE IS AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WINTER
PRECIPITATION. SINCE WEDNESDAY IS A MAJOR TRAVEL DAY WILL MENTION
POTENTIAL FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EST SUNDAY...

THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST STARTS WITH THE AFTERMATH OF WHAT
UNFOLDS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. GIVEN THERE STILL IS
GENEROUS UNCERTAINTY IN THOSE EVENTS...THE EVENTS AFTERWARDS ARE
EQUALLY CHALLENGING. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR A LOW/TROUGH TO
DEEPEN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY AS THE SYSTEM ALONG THE
COAST HEADS NORTHEAST...AND MAKES WAY FOR THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM TO
ENTER OUR REGION. THE PAST FEW DAYS...GUIDANCE HAS TRANSITIONED THIS
SYSTEM FROM A SLOWER...MORE AMPLIFIED SYSTEM INTO ONE THAT IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND THE BULK OF ITS ENERGY REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION
AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. THAT TREND CONTINUES TODAY. OUR FORECAST WILL
REFLECT LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PRIOR DURING THE THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THE HIGHLIGHTS HERE ARE UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA. A DECENT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP CLOUDS TO A MINIMUM EAST
OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND ADD A TOUCH OF A WARMING
INFLUENCE. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY THE REGION TRANSITIONS INTO MORE OF A ZONAL
PATTERN. THERE IS CONSISTENCY IN EACH MODEL CONCERNING THAT FEATURE.
WHAT VARIES SIGNIFICANTLY IS THE TIMING...TRACK AND SPEED OF A
DISTURBANCE MOVING WITHIN THIS ZONAL FLOW THAT MAY OR MAY NOT IMPACT
OUR REGION. AT THIS TIME...HAVE PLACED THE GREATEST FORECAST WEIGHT
ON A MODEL CONSENSUS THAT OFFERS A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
MAINLY IN THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING MILDER OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1250 PM EST SUNDAY...

WINDS...RAIN AND CLOUDS WILL HINDER AVIATION OPERATIONS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY.

WARM FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL LIFT NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. RAIN WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...CLOUD BASES WILL LOWER WITH MVFR
CIGS DEVELOPING AT ALL RNK TERMINAL FORECAST POINTS. ONSET OF RAIN
MAY RESULT IN RAPID DETERIATION OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO IFR BY
SUNSET WITH CONTINUATION OF LOW CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.

EXPECT PERIODS OF MDT AND HEAVY RAIN FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW LVL
WIND SHEAR ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO
AOA 50KTS TONIGHT. A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR DURING MONDAY OUTSIDE OF
THE MOUNTAINS AS A DRY SLOT DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE EXITING FRONT
FROM SUNDAY AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

 MONDAY INTO TUESDAY LOOK TO FEATURE QUITE A BIT OF WIND. NW FLOW
INTO MAY KEEP SUB VFR CIGS INTO BLF AND POSSIBLE LWB...WITH VFR TO
THE EAST. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UP THE
SOUTHEAST COAST BY WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY BRING WINTRY PRECIP TO THE
AREA ALONG WITH SUB VFR AT ALL SITES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 215 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WILL BE OUT
OF SERVICE UNTIL PARTS ARRIVE TO REPLACE THE SENSOR. UNTIL THEN
THE VISIBILITY WILL ONLY BE REPORTED WHEN THE CONTROL TOWER IS
STAFFED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ007-009.
NC...NONE.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ042.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/MBS
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...KK/PM
EQUIPMENT...RAB



000
FXUS61 KRNK 232038
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
338 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THE RAIN
MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT...AND WINDS
WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION AND
OTHER HIGH ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...BEFORE
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...RETURNING
TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL STORM TO IMPACT PARTS OF THE MID
ATLANTIC FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST SUNDAY...

WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COUNTIES OF TAZEWELL AND
SMYTH IN VIRGINIA AND MERCER IN WEST VIRGINIA...WHERE THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST JET TO TRANSLATE TO
LOWER ELEVATIONS. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM PIVOT THE THE 85O MB JET
JUST TO OUR WEST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.

THE WARM FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE ADVANCE OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS QUITE SLOW. REGIONAL WSR-88D IMAGES INDICATED THAT LIGHT RAIN
HAS ADVANCE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA INTO TONIGHT. THE
RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT. NOT
EXPECTING ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS WITH FORECASTED RAIN RATES.

THE SWODY1 HAS THE CHANCE OF A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM FOR OUR REGION
BUT CLOUDS AND RAIN ARE HINDERING THE INSTABILITY...DESPITE THE
HEALTHY SHEAR. WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDING ANY EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM AT
THIS TIME...BUT CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
IN THE SOUTHEAST.

TONIGHT...THE 850 MB FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO AND ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. ONCE THE WARM FRONT SURGES THROUGH
TONIGHT...A DRY SLOT WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST AND SHOULD TAPER OFF
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. USED A NON-DIURNAL
CURVE FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY FROM THE LOWER
40S TO THE LOWER 50S.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL 500H TROUGH WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
CONUS FOR MONDAY TO START THE WORKWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST MONDAY. A WARM SECTOR SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN A
BREEZY MILD MONDAY. 1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES OF 565-570DM AND
850H TEMPERATURES AROUND PLUS 10C SUPPORT SURFACE TEMPERATURES FROM
AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE DAY... WITH
GFS SOLUTION A LITTLE QUICKER THAN THE NAM/ECMWF.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 338 PM EST SUNDAY...

ON MONDAY NIGHT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS BANKED UP AGAINST THE WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. MODELS ERODE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY MORNING.

OVERALL PATTERN THIS TIME FRAME IS FOR SPLIT FLOW WITH AN ACTIVE
NORTHERN STREAM ALONG THE CANADIAN/NORTHERN U.S. BORDER AND SOUTHERN
STREAM THAT HAS A STRONG SHORT WAVE AT THE BASE OF THE TROF OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE TUESDAY. EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF
LONG WAVE TROF FROM POSITIVE TILT TO NEGATIVE TILT AND AMOUNT OF
PHASING BETWEEN THE TWO JET STREAMS WILL IMPACT THE RESULTING TRACK
OF THE GULF TO EAST COAST SURFACE LOW AND LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME SPREAD IN DIFFERENT MODELS IS LARGE.
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS WITH THE TIMING BUT MUCH LOWER WITH THE
LOCATION AND TYPE OF PRECIPITATION. WILL BE LEANING TOWARD BLEND OF
THE ECMWF AND GFS AS SUGGESTED BY WPC.

MODELS SHOW MID ATLANTIC REGION IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A 170
KNOT UPPER JET BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE THE COLD FRONT
MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON TUESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO ON TUESDAY...THEN TRACKS
ACROSS FLORIDA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW SHOULD BE OFF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST AND BEGINS
TO DEEPEN.

ONCE THE LOCATION OF THE PRECIPITATION IS DETERMINED...TEMPERATURES
WILL INFLUENCE WHAT TYPE OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. EVEN TAKING THE
COOLER MET/SREF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...SURFACE VALUES MAY STILL BE TOO WARM EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE TO SUPPORT ANYTHING BUT RAIN. HAVE USED PARTIAL THICKNESS
VALUES...MAINLY FROM THE GFS/ECMWF TO PLACE RAIN/SNOW LINE. THIS
WILL CHANGE AS THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER.

LOOKED AT PROBABILITY FOR SNOW AND CORRELATION WITH PAST ANALOG
EVENTS. APPEARS THERE IS AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WINTER
PRECIPITATION. SINCE WEDNESDAY IS A MAJOR TRAVEL DAY WILL MENTION
POTENTIAL FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EST SUNDAY...

THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST STARTS WITH THE AFTERMATH OF WHAT
UNFOLDS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. GIVEN THERE STILL IS
GENEROUS UNCERTAINTY IN THOSE EVENTS...THE EVENTS AFTERWARDS ARE
EQUALLY CHALLENGING. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR A LOW/TROUGH TO
DEEPEN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY AS THE SYSTEM ALONG THE
COAST HEADS NORTHEAST...AND MAKES WAY FOR THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM TO
ENTER OUR REGION. THE PAST FEW DAYS...GUIDANCE HAS TRANSITIONED THIS
SYSTEM FROM A SLOWER...MORE AMPLIFIED SYSTEM INTO ONE THAT IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND THE BULK OF ITS ENERGY REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION
AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. THAT TREND CONTINUES TODAY. OUR FORECAST WILL
REFLECT LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PRIOR DURING THE THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THE HIGHLIGHTS HERE ARE UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA. A DECENT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP CLOUDS TO A MINIMUM EAST
OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND ADD A TOUCH OF A WARMING
INFLUENCE. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY THE REGION TRANSITIONS INTO MORE OF A ZONAL
PATTERN. THERE IS CONSISTENCY IN EACH MODEL CONCERNING THAT FEATURE.
WHAT VARIES SIGNIFICANTLY IS THE TIMING...TRACK AND SPEED OF A
DISTURBANCE MOVING WITHIN THIS ZONAL FLOW THAT MAY OR MAY NOT IMPACT
OUR REGION. AT THIS TIME...HAVE PLACED THE GREATEST FORECAST WEIGHT
ON A MODEL CONSENSUS THAT OFFERS A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
MAINLY IN THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING MILDER OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1250 PM EST SUNDAY...

WINDS...RAIN AND CLOUDS WILL HINDER AVIATION OPERATIONS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY.

WARM FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL LIFT NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. RAIN WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...CLOUD BASES WILL LOWER WITH MVFR
CIGS DEVELOPING AT ALL RNK TERMINAL FORECAST POINTS. ONSET OF RAIN
MAY RESULT IN RAPID DETERIATION OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO IFR BY
SUNSET WITH CONTINUATION OF LOW CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.

EXPECT PERIODS OF MDT AND HEAVY RAIN FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW LVL
WIND SHEAR ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO
AOA 50KTS TONIGHT. A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR DURING MONDAY OUTSIDE OF
THE MOUNTAINS AS A DRY SLOT DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE EXITING FRONT
FROM SUNDAY AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

 MONDAY INTO TUESDAY LOOK TO FEATURE QUITE A BIT OF WIND. NW FLOW
INTO MAY KEEP SUB VFR CIGS INTO BLF AND POSSIBLE LWB...WITH VFR TO
THE EAST. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UP THE
SOUTHEAST COAST BY WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY BRING WINTRY PRECIP TO THE
AREA ALONG WITH SUB VFR AT ALL SITES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 215 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WILL BE OUT
OF SERVICE UNTIL PARTS ARRIVE TO REPLACE THE SENSOR. UNTIL THEN
THE VISIBILITY WILL ONLY BE REPORTED WHEN THE CONTROL TOWER IS
STAFFED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ007-009.
NC...NONE.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ042.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/MBS
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...KK/PM
EQUIPMENT...RAB




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 232038
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
338 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE EAST
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY INDICATES A POTENT TROUGH LIFTING NE INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...WITH MOISTURE FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE
GULF. AT THE SURFACE...A 995MB LOW IS DEVELOPING OVER NRN MS...WITH
A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS AL AND GA. LOCALLY...MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 50S OVER THE BULK OF THE AREA...TO
THE LOW 60S OVER SE PORTIONS. AREAS OF -RA HAVE BEGUN TO ENTER THE
SW PIEDMONT COUNTIES AND INTERIOR NE NC.

THE WARM FRONT WITH STRONG VERTICAL MOTION WILL CROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD DUE
TO A STRONG NEARLY 70KT LLJ. 12HR POPS FOR RAIN TONIGHT WILL REMAIN
AT 100%...AND WILL BE HIGHEST OVER WRN PORTIONS THROUGH SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARD THE COAST OVERNIGHT. A
THUNDER MENTION WILL CONTINUE FOR COASTAL NE NC. COASTAL ERN VA AND
SE MD COULD HEAR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IT. SPC HAS CONTINUED A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE FOR NE NC COUNTIES IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE...AND ANY
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR APPEARS TO ARRIVE ONCE THE STRONGEST FORCING EXITS
THE REGION...SO THE SEVERE THREAT IS MINIMAL. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND 6HR PRESSURE FALLS OF -6MB TO -10MB PER GFS WILL RESULT
IN BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF THE COAST.
GUSTS FROM THE SSE DIRECTION OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT
LOWS SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 50S...WITH READINGS LIKELY TO RISE
AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG FORCING AND SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE SHOULD
RESULT IN A ~6HR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN
TONIGHT...WITH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS AVERAGING 0.5 TO 0.75IN N-CENTRAL
PORTIONS AND 1.00-1.25IN NEAR THE COAST (AND NE NC).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NNE OF THE REGION BY 12Z MON...WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING TOWARD THE FAR WRN COUNTIES BY 00Z TUE. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE MON MORNING...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING
EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY INLAND. A GUSTY SW WIND WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S (SEE THE CLIMO
SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS). 20-30% POPS WILL BE CONFINED TO E/SE
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS THE 23/12Z NAM REMAINS AN OUTLIER IN
LINGERING DEEPER MOISTURE.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT AND TUE. PARTIAL
CLEARING IS EXPECTED INLAND. CLOUDS POTENTIALLY LINGER NEAR THE
COAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE...AND LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER TUE. HIGHS TUE
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO LOW 60S SE...AFTER MORNING
LOWS FROM THE MID 40S NW...TO LOW/MID 50S SE.

23/12Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEMONSTRATE AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NEAR THE SOUTHEAST CONUS LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT. THIS LOW THEN TRACKS NNE
ALONG THE COAST WED BRINGING RA TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON A BUSY
TRAVEL DAY. OF NOTE THE 23/12Z NAM IS FLATTER AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE...BUT AT THIS TIME THE GFS/ECMWF SCENARIO IS PREFERRED
PER PMDHMD. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST SOME WET SN COULD MIX IN AS THE
PCPN TAPERS OFF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO ANY
ACCUMULATION IS LOW AT THIS TIME...AS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO COOL
THE BOUNDARY LAYER FULLY BY DYNAMICAL COOLING AS ANY CAA IS MINIMAL.
CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE OFF THE 23/00Z GFS SUGGESTS THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SN WILL BE ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES.
CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 30S/LOW
40S INLAND...TO THE MID/UPPER 40S OVER SE PORTIONS...AND THESE WILL
LIKELY OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z/23 RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF COMING MORE INTO LINE WRT PTNTL
LO PRES DEVELOPING ALG STALLED FNTL BNDRY NR THE SE CONUS CST LT
TUE/TUE NGT...THEN TRACKING NNE ALG THE CST WED INTO WED NGT. A
BUSY PD OF TRAVEL MIDWEEK INCRSLY LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY
RA...AND AS PTNTL CSTL STM WINDS DOWN (LT WED/WED NGT)...MDL TEMP
PROFILES SUGGEST PSBL RA ENDING AS WET SN INLAND. HAVE NUDGED POPS
UP TO 70-80% E PORTION W...40-60% INLAND ON WED.

PCPN/MOIST THEN MOVES E OF THE AREA AND OFF THE CST LATER WED
WED NGT...WITH POPS DIMINISHING FM W TO E. A MAINLY DRY FRONT
SWINGS ACRS THE AREA THU AFTN INTO EARLY FRI MORNG. HI PRES WILL
THEN BLD INTO AND OVR THE REGION FRI THRU SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE L40S W AND M/U40S E WED...IN THE U40S TO L50S THU...IN THE
M/U40S FRI...AND RANGE THRU THE 40S SAT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S TO LWR 40S WED MORNG...IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S THU AND
FRI MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S SAT MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY
FROM THE COAST AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
THIS IS PUSHING ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS AND
IT WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
INITIALLY...JUST SEEING SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER MOST OF THE
AREA...BUT SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE SLIDING NORTH THROUGH THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT. AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TN RIVER
VALLEY TONIGHT...THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT UP THE COAST
AND SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN 6Z AND 9Z. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. ALSO
EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SE TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUST.

BEHIND THE FRONT...AFTER 9Z...THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
AND STILL BE GUSTY TO AROUND 15 KTS. BUT ONCE IN THE WARM
SECTOR...SHOULD SLOWLY SEE CEILINGS IMPROVE AND COULD POTENTIALLY
SEE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER 15Z...AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVING IN
AND MIXING HELP CEILINGS TO RISE.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS COMES ON WEDNESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NE ALONG THE COAST SPREADING RAIN AND LOW
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST UPDATED WITH AN UPGRADE TO GALE WARNING OVR THE OCEAN.
DESPITE WARM AIR OVR COOL WATER TEMPS...WITH A STRONG PRES
GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT AND WEAK LO PRES
DEVELOPMENT OVR NRN VA...AND LATEST NAM12 PROGGING 925 MB WINDS
~75 KT...THINK THAT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW HRS OF WINDS AOA
34 KT OVR THE OCEAN TNGT. SEAS WILL REACH 6-8 FT. GUSTS MAY COME
CLOSE TO GALE FORCE OVR THE BAY AS WELL (AT LEAST AT ELEVATED
SITES) WHERE STRONG SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. ALSO
MAINTAINED THE SCA HEADLINES FOR THE OTHER WTRS. THE GALE WARNING
ENDS LATE MON MORNING...BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED AS GUSTS COULD
CONTINUE IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE THRU THE AFTN HRS. THE SCA
HEADLINES ALL END DURING THE DAY MON AS WINDS DECREASE JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRNT WHICH CROSSES THE WTRS LATE MON NGT/TUE MORNG.
IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS THEN INTO TUE WITH HI PRES OVR THE
AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED MONDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

RIC 76 1979
ORF 78 1983
SBY 78 1931
ECG 77 1983

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ633-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632.
     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...ALB/TMG
AVIATION...ESS
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KRNK 232038
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
338 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THE RAIN
MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT...AND WINDS
WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION AND
OTHER HIGH ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...BEFORE
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...RETURNING
TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL STORM TO IMPACT PARTS OF THE MID
ATLANTIC FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST SUNDAY...

WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COUNTIES OF TAZEWELL AND
SMYTH IN VIRGINIA AND MERCER IN WEST VIRGINIA...WHERE THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST JET TO TRANSLATE TO
LOWER ELEVATIONS. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM PIVOT THE THE 85O MB JET
JUST TO OUR WEST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.

THE WARM FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE ADVANCE OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS QUITE SLOW. REGIONAL WSR-88D IMAGES INDICATED THAT LIGHT RAIN
HAS ADVANCE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA INTO TONIGHT. THE
RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT. NOT
EXPECTING ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS WITH FORECASTED RAIN RATES.

THE SWODY1 HAS THE CHANCE OF A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM FOR OUR REGION
BUT CLOUDS AND RAIN ARE HINDERING THE INSTABILITY...DESPITE THE
HEALTHY SHEAR. WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDING ANY EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM AT
THIS TIME...BUT CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
IN THE SOUTHEAST.

TONIGHT...THE 850 MB FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO AND ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. ONCE THE WARM FRONT SURGES THROUGH
TONIGHT...A DRY SLOT WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST AND SHOULD TAPER OFF
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. USED A NON-DIURNAL
CURVE FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY FROM THE LOWER
40S TO THE LOWER 50S.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL 500H TROUGH WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
CONUS FOR MONDAY TO START THE WORKWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST MONDAY. A WARM SECTOR SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN A
BREEZY MILD MONDAY. 1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES OF 565-570DM AND
850H TEMPERATURES AROUND PLUS 10C SUPPORT SURFACE TEMPERATURES FROM
AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE DAY... WITH
GFS SOLUTION A LITTLE QUICKER THAN THE NAM/ECMWF.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 338 PM EST SUNDAY...

ON MONDAY NIGHT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS BANKED UP AGAINST THE WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. MODELS ERODE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY MORNING.

OVERALL PATTERN THIS TIME FRAME IS FOR SPLIT FLOW WITH AN ACTIVE
NORTHERN STREAM ALONG THE CANADIAN/NORTHERN U.S. BORDER AND SOUTHERN
STREAM THAT HAS A STRONG SHORT WAVE AT THE BASE OF THE TROF OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE TUESDAY. EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF
LONG WAVE TROF FROM POSITIVE TILT TO NEGATIVE TILT AND AMOUNT OF
PHASING BETWEEN THE TWO JET STREAMS WILL IMPACT THE RESULTING TRACK
OF THE GULF TO EAST COAST SURFACE LOW AND LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME SPREAD IN DIFFERENT MODELS IS LARGE.
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS WITH THE TIMING BUT MUCH LOWER WITH THE
LOCATION AND TYPE OF PRECIPITATION. WILL BE LEANING TOWARD BLEND OF
THE ECMWF AND GFS AS SUGGESTED BY WPC.

MODELS SHOW MID ATLANTIC REGION IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A 170
KNOT UPPER JET BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE THE COLD FRONT
MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON TUESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO ON TUESDAY...THEN TRACKS
ACROSS FLORIDA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW SHOULD BE OFF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST AND BEGINS
TO DEEPEN.

ONCE THE LOCATION OF THE PRECIPITATION IS DETERMINED...TEMPERATURES
WILL INFLUENCE WHAT TYPE OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. EVEN TAKING THE
COOLER MET/SREF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...SURFACE VALUES MAY STILL BE TOO WARM EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE TO SUPPORT ANYTHING BUT RAIN. HAVE USED PARTIAL THICKNESS
VALUES...MAINLY FROM THE GFS/ECMWF TO PLACE RAIN/SNOW LINE. THIS
WILL CHANGE AS THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER.

LOOKED AT PROBABILITY FOR SNOW AND CORRELATION WITH PAST ANALOG
EVENTS. APPEARS THERE IS AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WINTER
PRECIPITATION. SINCE WEDNESDAY IS A MAJOR TRAVEL DAY WILL MENTION
POTENTIAL FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EST SUNDAY...

THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST STARTS WITH THE AFTERMATH OF WHAT
UNFOLDS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. GIVEN THERE STILL IS
GENEROUS UNCERTAINTY IN THOSE EVENTS...THE EVENTS AFTERWARDS ARE
EQUALLY CHALLENGING. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR A LOW/TROUGH TO
DEEPEN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY AS THE SYSTEM ALONG THE
COAST HEADS NORTHEAST...AND MAKES WAY FOR THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM TO
ENTER OUR REGION. THE PAST FEW DAYS...GUIDANCE HAS TRANSITIONED THIS
SYSTEM FROM A SLOWER...MORE AMPLIFIED SYSTEM INTO ONE THAT IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND THE BULK OF ITS ENERGY REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION
AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. THAT TREND CONTINUES TODAY. OUR FORECAST WILL
REFLECT LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PRIOR DURING THE THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THE HIGHLIGHTS HERE ARE UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA. A DECENT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP CLOUDS TO A MINIMUM EAST
OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND ADD A TOUCH OF A WARMING
INFLUENCE. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY THE REGION TRANSITIONS INTO MORE OF A ZONAL
PATTERN. THERE IS CONSISTENCY IN EACH MODEL CONCERNING THAT FEATURE.
WHAT VARIES SIGNIFICANTLY IS THE TIMING...TRACK AND SPEED OF A
DISTURBANCE MOVING WITHIN THIS ZONAL FLOW THAT MAY OR MAY NOT IMPACT
OUR REGION. AT THIS TIME...HAVE PLACED THE GREATEST FORECAST WEIGHT
ON A MODEL CONSENSUS THAT OFFERS A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
MAINLY IN THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING MILDER OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1250 PM EST SUNDAY...

WINDS...RAIN AND CLOUDS WILL HINDER AVIATION OPERATIONS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY.

WARM FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL LIFT NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. RAIN WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...CLOUD BASES WILL LOWER WITH MVFR
CIGS DEVELOPING AT ALL RNK TERMINAL FORECAST POINTS. ONSET OF RAIN
MAY RESULT IN RAPID DETERIATION OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO IFR BY
SUNSET WITH CONTINUATION OF LOW CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.

EXPECT PERIODS OF MDT AND HEAVY RAIN FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW LVL
WIND SHEAR ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO
AOA 50KTS TONIGHT. A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR DURING MONDAY OUTSIDE OF
THE MOUNTAINS AS A DRY SLOT DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE EXITING FRONT
FROM SUNDAY AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

 MONDAY INTO TUESDAY LOOK TO FEATURE QUITE A BIT OF WIND. NW FLOW
INTO MAY KEEP SUB VFR CIGS INTO BLF AND POSSIBLE LWB...WITH VFR TO
THE EAST. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UP THE
SOUTHEAST COAST BY WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY BRING WINTRY PRECIP TO THE
AREA ALONG WITH SUB VFR AT ALL SITES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 215 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WILL BE OUT
OF SERVICE UNTIL PARTS ARRIVE TO REPLACE THE SENSOR. UNTIL THEN
THE VISIBILITY WILL ONLY BE REPORTED WHEN THE CONTROL TOWER IS
STAFFED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ007-009.
NC...NONE.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ042.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/MBS
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...KK/PM
EQUIPMENT...RAB




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 232038
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
338 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE EAST
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY INDICATES A POTENT TROUGH LIFTING NE INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...WITH MOISTURE FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE
GULF. AT THE SURFACE...A 995MB LOW IS DEVELOPING OVER NRN MS...WITH
A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS AL AND GA. LOCALLY...MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 50S OVER THE BULK OF THE AREA...TO
THE LOW 60S OVER SE PORTIONS. AREAS OF -RA HAVE BEGUN TO ENTER THE
SW PIEDMONT COUNTIES AND INTERIOR NE NC.

THE WARM FRONT WITH STRONG VERTICAL MOTION WILL CROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD DUE
TO A STRONG NEARLY 70KT LLJ. 12HR POPS FOR RAIN TONIGHT WILL REMAIN
AT 100%...AND WILL BE HIGHEST OVER WRN PORTIONS THROUGH SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARD THE COAST OVERNIGHT. A
THUNDER MENTION WILL CONTINUE FOR COASTAL NE NC. COASTAL ERN VA AND
SE MD COULD HEAR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IT. SPC HAS CONTINUED A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE FOR NE NC COUNTIES IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE...AND ANY
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR APPEARS TO ARRIVE ONCE THE STRONGEST FORCING EXITS
THE REGION...SO THE SEVERE THREAT IS MINIMAL. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND 6HR PRESSURE FALLS OF -6MB TO -10MB PER GFS WILL RESULT
IN BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF THE COAST.
GUSTS FROM THE SSE DIRECTION OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT
LOWS SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 50S...WITH READINGS LIKELY TO RISE
AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG FORCING AND SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE SHOULD
RESULT IN A ~6HR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN
TONIGHT...WITH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS AVERAGING 0.5 TO 0.75IN N-CENTRAL
PORTIONS AND 1.00-1.25IN NEAR THE COAST (AND NE NC).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NNE OF THE REGION BY 12Z MON...WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING TOWARD THE FAR WRN COUNTIES BY 00Z TUE. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE MON MORNING...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING
EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY INLAND. A GUSTY SW WIND WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S (SEE THE CLIMO
SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS). 20-30% POPS WILL BE CONFINED TO E/SE
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS THE 23/12Z NAM REMAINS AN OUTLIER IN
LINGERING DEEPER MOISTURE.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT AND TUE. PARTIAL
CLEARING IS EXPECTED INLAND. CLOUDS POTENTIALLY LINGER NEAR THE
COAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE...AND LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER TUE. HIGHS TUE
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO LOW 60S SE...AFTER MORNING
LOWS FROM THE MID 40S NW...TO LOW/MID 50S SE.

23/12Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEMONSTRATE AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NEAR THE SOUTHEAST CONUS LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT. THIS LOW THEN TRACKS NNE
ALONG THE COAST WED BRINGING RA TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON A BUSY
TRAVEL DAY. OF NOTE THE 23/12Z NAM IS FLATTER AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE...BUT AT THIS TIME THE GFS/ECMWF SCENARIO IS PREFERRED
PER PMDHMD. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST SOME WET SN COULD MIX IN AS THE
PCPN TAPERS OFF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO ANY
ACCUMULATION IS LOW AT THIS TIME...AS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO COOL
THE BOUNDARY LAYER FULLY BY DYNAMICAL COOLING AS ANY CAA IS MINIMAL.
CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE OFF THE 23/00Z GFS SUGGESTS THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SN WILL BE ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES.
CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 30S/LOW
40S INLAND...TO THE MID/UPPER 40S OVER SE PORTIONS...AND THESE WILL
LIKELY OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z/23 RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF COMING MORE INTO LINE WRT PTNTL
LO PRES DEVELOPING ALG STALLED FNTL BNDRY NR THE SE CONUS CST LT
TUE/TUE NGT...THEN TRACKING NNE ALG THE CST WED INTO WED NGT. A
BUSY PD OF TRAVEL MIDWEEK INCRSLY LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY
RA...AND AS PTNTL CSTL STM WINDS DOWN (LT WED/WED NGT)...MDL TEMP
PROFILES SUGGEST PSBL RA ENDING AS WET SN INLAND. HAVE NUDGED POPS
UP TO 70-80% E PORTION W...40-60% INLAND ON WED.

PCPN/MOIST THEN MOVES E OF THE AREA AND OFF THE CST LATER WED
WED NGT...WITH POPS DIMINISHING FM W TO E. A MAINLY DRY FRONT
SWINGS ACRS THE AREA THU AFTN INTO EARLY FRI MORNG. HI PRES WILL
THEN BLD INTO AND OVR THE REGION FRI THRU SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE L40S W AND M/U40S E WED...IN THE U40S TO L50S THU...IN THE
M/U40S FRI...AND RANGE THRU THE 40S SAT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S TO LWR 40S WED MORNG...IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S THU AND
FRI MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S SAT MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY
FROM THE COAST AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
THIS IS PUSHING ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS AND
IT WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
INITIALLY...JUST SEEING SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER MOST OF THE
AREA...BUT SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE SLIDING NORTH THROUGH THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT. AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TN RIVER
VALLEY TONIGHT...THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT UP THE COAST
AND SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN 6Z AND 9Z. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. ALSO
EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SE TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUST.

BEHIND THE FRONT...AFTER 9Z...THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
AND STILL BE GUSTY TO AROUND 15 KTS. BUT ONCE IN THE WARM
SECTOR...SHOULD SLOWLY SEE CEILINGS IMPROVE AND COULD POTENTIALLY
SEE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER 15Z...AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVING IN
AND MIXING HELP CEILINGS TO RISE.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS COMES ON WEDNESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NE ALONG THE COAST SPREADING RAIN AND LOW
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST UPDATED WITH AN UPGRADE TO GALE WARNING OVR THE OCEAN.
DESPITE WARM AIR OVR COOL WATER TEMPS...WITH A STRONG PRES
GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT AND WEAK LO PRES
DEVELOPMENT OVR NRN VA...AND LATEST NAM12 PROGGING 925 MB WINDS
~75 KT...THINK THAT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW HRS OF WINDS AOA
34 KT OVR THE OCEAN TNGT. SEAS WILL REACH 6-8 FT. GUSTS MAY COME
CLOSE TO GALE FORCE OVR THE BAY AS WELL (AT LEAST AT ELEVATED
SITES) WHERE STRONG SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. ALSO
MAINTAINED THE SCA HEADLINES FOR THE OTHER WTRS. THE GALE WARNING
ENDS LATE MON MORNING...BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED AS GUSTS COULD
CONTINUE IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE THRU THE AFTN HRS. THE SCA
HEADLINES ALL END DURING THE DAY MON AS WINDS DECREASE JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRNT WHICH CROSSES THE WTRS LATE MON NGT/TUE MORNG.
IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS THEN INTO TUE WITH HI PRES OVR THE
AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED MONDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

RIC 76 1979
ORF 78 1983
SBY 78 1931
ECG 77 1983

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ633-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632.
     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...ALB/TMG
AVIATION...ESS
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...AKQ



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KLWX 231952
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
252 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE INTENSIFYING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC MONDAY EVENING.
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

LOTS OF CHGS TO TAKE PLACE WX WISE IN THE NEXT SVRL DAYS. THE TNGT
PD IS NO XCPTN. AFTR A GRADUAL WARMUP OVR THE PAST SVRL DAYS WE`LL
SEE A WARM FNT PUSH THRU THE MID ATLC AFTR MDNGT. THIS IN ITSELF
IS SOMEWHAT UNCOMMON - WARM FNTS GNRLY HV A HARDER TIME PUSHING
THRU AT NGT...BUT THE EWD TRACKING OF THE PRVSLY BLOCKING HIGH AND
AND THE EWD PUSH OF THE FNTS TO OUR W WL AID IN PUSHING THE WARM
FNT N. AS A RESULT RA WL BRK OUT ACROSS THE AREA...AND TEMPS WL
RISE OVRNGT. WE WL BE IN A HIGH SHEAR/NO CAPE ENVIRONMENT BTWN 10
PM AND 4 AM. ALTHO NO THUNDER IS CURRENTLY BEING SEEN TO THE S A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

LOWS SHOULD HAPPEN B4 MDNGT THEN RISING OVRNGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...

MON THE WARM FNT HAS PUSHED N OF US AND PCPN WL COME TO AN END. IT
SHOULD BE A WARM DAY W/ SRLY WINDS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH TE M70S IN
MANY SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC MONDAY
EVENING...THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
BETWEEN 00-06Z. THE FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED...WITH ONLY A
SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF I-95. THERE IS A CHANCE
UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...WHICH WILL MAINLY BE IN
THE FORM OF RAIN DUE TO WARM STARTING TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH SNOW
MAY MIX IN AS TEMPERATURES COOL OVERNIGHT. NOT A FAVORABLE SET UP
FOR PROLONGED UPSLOPE THOUGH...SO POPS TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT.
COLD AIR WILL BE SLOW TO WORK EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM NEAR FREEZING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO UPPER 40S
NEAR THE BAY.

THE FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE COAST ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
NOSING IN ON SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. CAA SLOWS...SO DESPITE BEING
COOLER...NOT A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S UNDER A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INITIATE SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE FRONT
BUCKLES AND LOW BEGINS TO TURN UP THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD...SOME
MOISTURE MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD IN FROM THE SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. IF IT
DOES SO...IT WOULD MAINLY AFFECT SOUTHERN MD TO CENTRAL VA...WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN. LOWS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S.

WED IS A CHALLENGE. THE KEY AT THIS PT IN TIME IS TO NOTE THIS IS
STILL 3 DAYS HENCE AND THERE CAN BE CHGS TO THE FCST. LOW PRES IS
XPCTD TO FORM IN THE GULFMEX ON THE DEPARTED CD FNT AND THEN MOVE
N ALONG THE ALTC SEABOARD WED. DEPENDING ON THE MDL THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN THE POSN OF THE LOW...FM OVR HAT/ORF WED AFTN TO A
HUNDRED MILES OUT TO SEA. W/ THE LOW E OF THE FCST AREA THIS WL
ALLOW CD AIR TO BE DRAWN INTO THE MID ATLC - SUB 130 DM. MOISTURE WL
TO BE DRAWN INTO THE RGN...LKLY CAUSING SNOW TO FALL AT HIGHER
ELEVS AND ALONG M-D LN...A MIX FM THE BLU RDG TO I-95...AND MAINLY
RA E OF I-95. SVRL INCHES OF SNOWFALL ARE PSBL WED...AGN MAINLY AT
HIGHER ELEVS.

THERE IS NO BLOCKING HIGH TO HOLD THIS LOW NEAR THE DELMARVA. IT
IS PROJECTED TO MOVE E OF NJ BY 00Z THU. THIS WOULD LKLY BRING AN
END TO THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW.

UPSLOPE SNOWS PSBL THU OVR THE HIGHLANDS. HIGH PRES BLDS INTO THE
AREA FRI. UPR LVL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZNL FOR THE WKND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

VFR CONDS FOR RMNDR OF AFTN. CONDS ARE XPCTD TO BEGIN TO
DETERIORATE AFTR 00Z..DROPPING TO IFR OVRNGT. CIGS WL LKLY IMPROVE
AFTR SUNRISE MON.

WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY EVENING WITH DIRECTION SHIFTING FROM
SOUTH TO WEST. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS ALONG THE COAST ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW
AFFECTING THE REGION. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE SPECIFICS AT THIS
TIME...BUT IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

SRLY WINDS XPCTD TO INCRS TNGT ALONG W/ THE PSBLTY OF ISOLD
THUNDER. SCA IN EFFECT TNGT AND MON.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY EVENING AND SHIFT IN DIRECTION FROM
SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. EXTENDED THE
SCA TO 1 AM FOR MOST OF THE WATERS. LIGHT WINDS THE REST OF MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES OFFSHORE WHICH WILL LIKELY
NECESSITATE A SCA. MORE SCA-LEVEL GUSTS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

WINDS ON THE MID CHESAPEAKE BAY WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 MPH TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE TEMP CONTRAST BETWEEN THE AIR AND
WATER...MUCH BETTER WINDS WILL BE CONFINED ALOFT. EVEN THE
TYPICALLY AGGRESSIVE CBOFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THERE WL BE NO
WATER LVL RISE WITH TIDES TODAY OR TONIGHT. THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED OF COURSE...BUT EVEN IF THERE WERE MODEL ERRORS STILL DO
NOT ANTICIPATE ANY ISSUES.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ531>534-536-537-539>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ530-535-538.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/ADS/CEM/BPP









000
FXUS61 KAKQ 231850
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
150 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE EAST
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HI PRES NOW OFF THE CST...WILL CONT TO SLO DRIFT E AWAY FM THE
CST THROUGH TDA. CLOUDS CONT TO THICKEN AND LWR FM THE SW AS GULF
COAST MOISTURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFT NE THROUGH THE SE
CONUS...AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. XPCG MUCH OF THE DAY TO BE DRY...BUT SOME RAIN
SHOULD ARRIVE IN FAR SW PORTIONS OF LATE IN THE DAY. WILL CONT W/
INCRSG POPS TO 50-60% POPS SW LATE IN THE DAY...W/ RIBBON OF
30-40% POP FROM THE NW PIEDMONT THROUGH NE NC. HI TEMPS RANGING FM
THE M50S NW TO L60S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WITH STRONG VERTICAL MOTION WILL CROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TNGT. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE (PWTRS INCRSG TO 1.5 TO
2 IN 00-06Z/24 PER 00Z/23 GFS) WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT DUE TO A
STRONG NEARLY 70KT LLJ. POPS FOR RAIN DURING THE 12HR PERIOD TNGT
WILL CONT AT 100%. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
COASTAL NE NC (NOT READY TO ADD TO OTHER AREAS - ESP ERN VA/LWR SE
MD BUT WOULDN`T RULE IT OUT)...AND SPC HAS OUTLINED THAT AREA
(CSTL NE NC) IN SLGT CHC SVR. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
6HR PRESSURE FALLS OF -6MB TO -10MB GFS WILL RESULT IN
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF THE COAST.
GUSTS FROM THE SSE DIRECTION OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. LO
TEMPS TNGT SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 50S...WITH READINGS LIKELY TO
RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG FORCING AND SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE
SHOULD RESULT IN A ~6HR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
RAIN TNGT...WITH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS AVERAGING 0.5 TO 0.75 IN
N/CNTRL AND 1.00-1.25 IN NR THE CST (AND NE NC).

THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NNE OF THE REGION BY 12Z/25...W/ A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING TOWARD THE FAR WRN COUNTIES BY 00Z TUE. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE MON MORNING...WITH A GUSTY SW WIND
DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S (SEE THE
THE CLIMO SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS). WILL LIMIT ANY POPS TO FAR
ESE AREAS OF FA AS 00Z/23 NAM RMNS OUTLIER IN LINGERING MOISTURE
ACRS THOSE LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT AND TUE. PARTIAL
CLEARING IS XPCD INLAND...WITH PSBL CLOUDS LINGERING RIGHT ALG THE
COAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER TUE. HIGHS TUE
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO LOW 60S SE...AFTER MORNING
LOWS FROM THE MID 40S NW...TO LOW/MID 50S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z/23 RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF COMING MORE INTO LINE WRT PTNTL
LO PRES DEVELOPING ALG STALLED FNTL BNDRY NR THE SE CONUS CST LT
TUE/TUE NGT...THEN TRACKING NNE ALG THE CST WED INTO WED NGT. A
BUSY PD OF TRAVEL MIDWEEK INCRSLY LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY
RA...AND AS PTNTL CSTL STM WINDS DOWN (LT WED/WED NGT)...MDL TEMP
PROFILES SUGGEST PSBL RA ENDING AS WET SN INLAND. HAVE NUDGED POPS
UP TO 70-80% E PORTION W...40-60% INLAND ON WED.

PCPN/MOIST THEN MOVES E OF THE AREA AND OFF THE CST LATER WED
WED NGT...WITH POPS DIMINISHING FM W TO E. A MAINLY DRY FRONT
SWINGS ACRS THE AREA THU AFTN INTO EARLY FRI MORNG. HI PRES WILL
THEN BLD INTO AND OVR THE REGION FRI THRU SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE L40S W AND M/U40S E WED...IN THE U40S TO L50S THU...IN THE
M/U40S FRI...AND RANGE THRU THE 40S SAT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S TO LWR 40S WED MORNG...IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S THU AND
FRI MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S SAT MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY
FROM THE COAST AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
THIS IS PUSHING ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS AND
IT WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
INITIALLY...JUST SEEING SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER MOST OF THE
AREA...BUT SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE SLIDING NORTH THROUGH THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT. AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TN RIVER
VALLEY TONIGHT...THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT UP THE COAST
AND SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN 6Z AND 9Z. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. ALSO
EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SE TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUST.

BEHIND THE FRONT...AFTER 9Z...THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
AND STILL BE GUSTY TO AROUND 15 KTS. BUT ONCE IN THE WARM
SECTOR...SHOULD SLOWLY SEE CEILINGS IMPROVE AND COULD POTENTIALLY
SEE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER 15Z...AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVING IN
AND MIXING HELP CEILINGS TO RISE.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS COMES ON WEDNESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NE ALONG THE COAST SPREADING RAIN AND LOW
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST UPDATED WITH AN UPGRADE TO GALE WARNING OVR THE OCEAN.
DESPITE WARM AIR OVR COOL WATER TEMPS...WITH A STRONG PRES
GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT AND WEAK LO PRES
DEVELOPMENT OVR NRN VA...AND LATEST NAM12 PROGGING 925 MB WINDS
~75 KT...THINK THAT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW HRS OF WINDS AOA
34 KT OVR THE OCEAN TNGT. SEAS WILL REACH 6-8 FT. GUSTS MAY COME
CLOSE TO GALE FORCE OVR THE BAY AS WELL (AT LEAST AT ELEVATED
SITES) WHERE STRONG SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. ALSO
MAINTAINED THE SCA HEADLINES FOR THE OTHER WTRS. THE GALE WARNING
ENDS LATE MON MORNING...BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED AS GUSTS COULD
CONTINUE IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE THRU THE AFTN HRS. THE SCA
HEADLINES ALL END DURING THE DAY MON AS WINDS DECREASE JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRNT WHICH CROSSES THE WTRS LATE MON NGT/TUE MORNG.
IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS THEN INTO TUE WITH HI PRES OVR THE
AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED MONDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

RIC 76 1979
ORF 78 1983
SBY 78 1931
ECG 77 1983

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ633-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632.
     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...ALB/TMG
AVIATION...ESS
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 231850
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
150 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE EAST
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HI PRES NOW OFF THE CST...WILL CONT TO SLO DRIFT E AWAY FM THE
CST THROUGH TDA. CLOUDS CONT TO THICKEN AND LWR FM THE SW AS GULF
COAST MOISTURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFT NE THROUGH THE SE
CONUS...AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. XPCG MUCH OF THE DAY TO BE DRY...BUT SOME RAIN
SHOULD ARRIVE IN FAR SW PORTIONS OF LATE IN THE DAY. WILL CONT W/
INCRSG POPS TO 50-60% POPS SW LATE IN THE DAY...W/ RIBBON OF
30-40% POP FROM THE NW PIEDMONT THROUGH NE NC. HI TEMPS RANGING FM
THE M50S NW TO L60S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WITH STRONG VERTICAL MOTION WILL CROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TNGT. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE (PWTRS INCRSG TO 1.5 TO
2 IN 00-06Z/24 PER 00Z/23 GFS) WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT DUE TO A
STRONG NEARLY 70KT LLJ. POPS FOR RAIN DURING THE 12HR PERIOD TNGT
WILL CONT AT 100%. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
COASTAL NE NC (NOT READY TO ADD TO OTHER AREAS - ESP ERN VA/LWR SE
MD BUT WOULDN`T RULE IT OUT)...AND SPC HAS OUTLINED THAT AREA
(CSTL NE NC) IN SLGT CHC SVR. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
6HR PRESSURE FALLS OF -6MB TO -10MB GFS WILL RESULT IN
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF THE COAST.
GUSTS FROM THE SSE DIRECTION OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. LO
TEMPS TNGT SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 50S...WITH READINGS LIKELY TO
RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG FORCING AND SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE
SHOULD RESULT IN A ~6HR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
RAIN TNGT...WITH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS AVERAGING 0.5 TO 0.75 IN
N/CNTRL AND 1.00-1.25 IN NR THE CST (AND NE NC).

THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NNE OF THE REGION BY 12Z/25...W/ A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING TOWARD THE FAR WRN COUNTIES BY 00Z TUE. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE MON MORNING...WITH A GUSTY SW WIND
DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S (SEE THE
THE CLIMO SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS). WILL LIMIT ANY POPS TO FAR
ESE AREAS OF FA AS 00Z/23 NAM RMNS OUTLIER IN LINGERING MOISTURE
ACRS THOSE LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT AND TUE. PARTIAL
CLEARING IS XPCD INLAND...WITH PSBL CLOUDS LINGERING RIGHT ALG THE
COAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER TUE. HIGHS TUE
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO LOW 60S SE...AFTER MORNING
LOWS FROM THE MID 40S NW...TO LOW/MID 50S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z/23 RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF COMING MORE INTO LINE WRT PTNTL
LO PRES DEVELOPING ALG STALLED FNTL BNDRY NR THE SE CONUS CST LT
TUE/TUE NGT...THEN TRACKING NNE ALG THE CST WED INTO WED NGT. A
BUSY PD OF TRAVEL MIDWEEK INCRSLY LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY
RA...AND AS PTNTL CSTL STM WINDS DOWN (LT WED/WED NGT)...MDL TEMP
PROFILES SUGGEST PSBL RA ENDING AS WET SN INLAND. HAVE NUDGED POPS
UP TO 70-80% E PORTION W...40-60% INLAND ON WED.

PCPN/MOIST THEN MOVES E OF THE AREA AND OFF THE CST LATER WED
WED NGT...WITH POPS DIMINISHING FM W TO E. A MAINLY DRY FRONT
SWINGS ACRS THE AREA THU AFTN INTO EARLY FRI MORNG. HI PRES WILL
THEN BLD INTO AND OVR THE REGION FRI THRU SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE L40S W AND M/U40S E WED...IN THE U40S TO L50S THU...IN THE
M/U40S FRI...AND RANGE THRU THE 40S SAT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S TO LWR 40S WED MORNG...IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S THU AND
FRI MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S SAT MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY
FROM THE COAST AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
THIS IS PUSHING ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS AND
IT WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
INITIALLY...JUST SEEING SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER MOST OF THE
AREA...BUT SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE SLIDING NORTH THROUGH THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT. AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TN RIVER
VALLEY TONIGHT...THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT UP THE COAST
AND SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN 6Z AND 9Z. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. ALSO
EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SE TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUST.

BEHIND THE FRONT...AFTER 9Z...THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
AND STILL BE GUSTY TO AROUND 15 KTS. BUT ONCE IN THE WARM
SECTOR...SHOULD SLOWLY SEE CEILINGS IMPROVE AND COULD POTENTIALLY
SEE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER 15Z...AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVING IN
AND MIXING HELP CEILINGS TO RISE.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS COMES ON WEDNESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NE ALONG THE COAST SPREADING RAIN AND LOW
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST UPDATED WITH AN UPGRADE TO GALE WARNING OVR THE OCEAN.
DESPITE WARM AIR OVR COOL WATER TEMPS...WITH A STRONG PRES
GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT AND WEAK LO PRES
DEVELOPMENT OVR NRN VA...AND LATEST NAM12 PROGGING 925 MB WINDS
~75 KT...THINK THAT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW HRS OF WINDS AOA
34 KT OVR THE OCEAN TNGT. SEAS WILL REACH 6-8 FT. GUSTS MAY COME
CLOSE TO GALE FORCE OVR THE BAY AS WELL (AT LEAST AT ELEVATED
SITES) WHERE STRONG SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. ALSO
MAINTAINED THE SCA HEADLINES FOR THE OTHER WTRS. THE GALE WARNING
ENDS LATE MON MORNING...BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED AS GUSTS COULD
CONTINUE IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE THRU THE AFTN HRS. THE SCA
HEADLINES ALL END DURING THE DAY MON AS WINDS DECREASE JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRNT WHICH CROSSES THE WTRS LATE MON NGT/TUE MORNG.
IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS THEN INTO TUE WITH HI PRES OVR THE
AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED MONDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

RIC 76 1979
ORF 78 1983
SBY 78 1931
ECG 77 1983

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ633-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632.
     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...ALB/TMG
AVIATION...ESS
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 231850
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
150 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE EAST
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HI PRES NOW OFF THE CST...WILL CONT TO SLO DRIFT E AWAY FM THE
CST THROUGH TDA. CLOUDS CONT TO THICKEN AND LWR FM THE SW AS GULF
COAST MOISTURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFT NE THROUGH THE SE
CONUS...AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. XPCG MUCH OF THE DAY TO BE DRY...BUT SOME RAIN
SHOULD ARRIVE IN FAR SW PORTIONS OF LATE IN THE DAY. WILL CONT W/
INCRSG POPS TO 50-60% POPS SW LATE IN THE DAY...W/ RIBBON OF
30-40% POP FROM THE NW PIEDMONT THROUGH NE NC. HI TEMPS RANGING FM
THE M50S NW TO L60S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WITH STRONG VERTICAL MOTION WILL CROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TNGT. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE (PWTRS INCRSG TO 1.5 TO
2 IN 00-06Z/24 PER 00Z/23 GFS) WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT DUE TO A
STRONG NEARLY 70KT LLJ. POPS FOR RAIN DURING THE 12HR PERIOD TNGT
WILL CONT AT 100%. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
COASTAL NE NC (NOT READY TO ADD TO OTHER AREAS - ESP ERN VA/LWR SE
MD BUT WOULDN`T RULE IT OUT)...AND SPC HAS OUTLINED THAT AREA
(CSTL NE NC) IN SLGT CHC SVR. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
6HR PRESSURE FALLS OF -6MB TO -10MB GFS WILL RESULT IN
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF THE COAST.
GUSTS FROM THE SSE DIRECTION OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. LO
TEMPS TNGT SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 50S...WITH READINGS LIKELY TO
RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG FORCING AND SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE
SHOULD RESULT IN A ~6HR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
RAIN TNGT...WITH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS AVERAGING 0.5 TO 0.75 IN
N/CNTRL AND 1.00-1.25 IN NR THE CST (AND NE NC).

THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NNE OF THE REGION BY 12Z/25...W/ A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING TOWARD THE FAR WRN COUNTIES BY 00Z TUE. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE MON MORNING...WITH A GUSTY SW WIND
DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S (SEE THE
THE CLIMO SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS). WILL LIMIT ANY POPS TO FAR
ESE AREAS OF FA AS 00Z/23 NAM RMNS OUTLIER IN LINGERING MOISTURE
ACRS THOSE LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT AND TUE. PARTIAL
CLEARING IS XPCD INLAND...WITH PSBL CLOUDS LINGERING RIGHT ALG THE
COAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER TUE. HIGHS TUE
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO LOW 60S SE...AFTER MORNING
LOWS FROM THE MID 40S NW...TO LOW/MID 50S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z/23 RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF COMING MORE INTO LINE WRT PTNTL
LO PRES DEVELOPING ALG STALLED FNTL BNDRY NR THE SE CONUS CST LT
TUE/TUE NGT...THEN TRACKING NNE ALG THE CST WED INTO WED NGT. A
BUSY PD OF TRAVEL MIDWEEK INCRSLY LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY
RA...AND AS PTNTL CSTL STM WINDS DOWN (LT WED/WED NGT)...MDL TEMP
PROFILES SUGGEST PSBL RA ENDING AS WET SN INLAND. HAVE NUDGED POPS
UP TO 70-80% E PORTION W...40-60% INLAND ON WED.

PCPN/MOIST THEN MOVES E OF THE AREA AND OFF THE CST LATER WED
WED NGT...WITH POPS DIMINISHING FM W TO E. A MAINLY DRY FRONT
SWINGS ACRS THE AREA THU AFTN INTO EARLY FRI MORNG. HI PRES WILL
THEN BLD INTO AND OVR THE REGION FRI THRU SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE L40S W AND M/U40S E WED...IN THE U40S TO L50S THU...IN THE
M/U40S FRI...AND RANGE THRU THE 40S SAT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S TO LWR 40S WED MORNG...IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S THU AND
FRI MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S SAT MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY
FROM THE COAST AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
THIS IS PUSHING ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS AND
IT WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
INITIALLY...JUST SEEING SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER MOST OF THE
AREA...BUT SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE SLIDING NORTH THROUGH THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT. AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TN RIVER
VALLEY TONIGHT...THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT UP THE COAST
AND SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN 6Z AND 9Z. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. ALSO
EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SE TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUST.

BEHIND THE FRONT...AFTER 9Z...THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
AND STILL BE GUSTY TO AROUND 15 KTS. BUT ONCE IN THE WARM
SECTOR...SHOULD SLOWLY SEE CEILINGS IMPROVE AND COULD POTENTIALLY
SEE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER 15Z...AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVING IN
AND MIXING HELP CEILINGS TO RISE.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS COMES ON WEDNESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NE ALONG THE COAST SPREADING RAIN AND LOW
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST UPDATED WITH AN UPGRADE TO GALE WARNING OVR THE OCEAN.
DESPITE WARM AIR OVR COOL WATER TEMPS...WITH A STRONG PRES
GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT AND WEAK LO PRES
DEVELOPMENT OVR NRN VA...AND LATEST NAM12 PROGGING 925 MB WINDS
~75 KT...THINK THAT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW HRS OF WINDS AOA
34 KT OVR THE OCEAN TNGT. SEAS WILL REACH 6-8 FT. GUSTS MAY COME
CLOSE TO GALE FORCE OVR THE BAY AS WELL (AT LEAST AT ELEVATED
SITES) WHERE STRONG SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. ALSO
MAINTAINED THE SCA HEADLINES FOR THE OTHER WTRS. THE GALE WARNING
ENDS LATE MON MORNING...BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED AS GUSTS COULD
CONTINUE IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE THRU THE AFTN HRS. THE SCA
HEADLINES ALL END DURING THE DAY MON AS WINDS DECREASE JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRNT WHICH CROSSES THE WTRS LATE MON NGT/TUE MORNG.
IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS THEN INTO TUE WITH HI PRES OVR THE
AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED MONDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

RIC 76 1979
ORF 78 1983
SBY 78 1931
ECG 77 1983

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ633-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632.
     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...ALB/TMG
AVIATION...ESS
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 231850
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
150 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE EAST
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HI PRES NOW OFF THE CST...WILL CONT TO SLO DRIFT E AWAY FM THE
CST THROUGH TDA. CLOUDS CONT TO THICKEN AND LWR FM THE SW AS GULF
COAST MOISTURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFT NE THROUGH THE SE
CONUS...AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. XPCG MUCH OF THE DAY TO BE DRY...BUT SOME RAIN
SHOULD ARRIVE IN FAR SW PORTIONS OF LATE IN THE DAY. WILL CONT W/
INCRSG POPS TO 50-60% POPS SW LATE IN THE DAY...W/ RIBBON OF
30-40% POP FROM THE NW PIEDMONT THROUGH NE NC. HI TEMPS RANGING FM
THE M50S NW TO L60S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WITH STRONG VERTICAL MOTION WILL CROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TNGT. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE (PWTRS INCRSG TO 1.5 TO
2 IN 00-06Z/24 PER 00Z/23 GFS) WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT DUE TO A
STRONG NEARLY 70KT LLJ. POPS FOR RAIN DURING THE 12HR PERIOD TNGT
WILL CONT AT 100%. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
COASTAL NE NC (NOT READY TO ADD TO OTHER AREAS - ESP ERN VA/LWR SE
MD BUT WOULDN`T RULE IT OUT)...AND SPC HAS OUTLINED THAT AREA
(CSTL NE NC) IN SLGT CHC SVR. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
6HR PRESSURE FALLS OF -6MB TO -10MB GFS WILL RESULT IN
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF THE COAST.
GUSTS FROM THE SSE DIRECTION OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. LO
TEMPS TNGT SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 50S...WITH READINGS LIKELY TO
RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG FORCING AND SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE
SHOULD RESULT IN A ~6HR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
RAIN TNGT...WITH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS AVERAGING 0.5 TO 0.75 IN
N/CNTRL AND 1.00-1.25 IN NR THE CST (AND NE NC).

THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NNE OF THE REGION BY 12Z/25...W/ A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING TOWARD THE FAR WRN COUNTIES BY 00Z TUE. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE MON MORNING...WITH A GUSTY SW WIND
DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S (SEE THE
THE CLIMO SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS). WILL LIMIT ANY POPS TO FAR
ESE AREAS OF FA AS 00Z/23 NAM RMNS OUTLIER IN LINGERING MOISTURE
ACRS THOSE LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT AND TUE. PARTIAL
CLEARING IS XPCD INLAND...WITH PSBL CLOUDS LINGERING RIGHT ALG THE
COAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER TUE. HIGHS TUE
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO LOW 60S SE...AFTER MORNING
LOWS FROM THE MID 40S NW...TO LOW/MID 50S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z/23 RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF COMING MORE INTO LINE WRT PTNTL
LO PRES DEVELOPING ALG STALLED FNTL BNDRY NR THE SE CONUS CST LT
TUE/TUE NGT...THEN TRACKING NNE ALG THE CST WED INTO WED NGT. A
BUSY PD OF TRAVEL MIDWEEK INCRSLY LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY
RA...AND AS PTNTL CSTL STM WINDS DOWN (LT WED/WED NGT)...MDL TEMP
PROFILES SUGGEST PSBL RA ENDING AS WET SN INLAND. HAVE NUDGED POPS
UP TO 70-80% E PORTION W...40-60% INLAND ON WED.

PCPN/MOIST THEN MOVES E OF THE AREA AND OFF THE CST LATER WED
WED NGT...WITH POPS DIMINISHING FM W TO E. A MAINLY DRY FRONT
SWINGS ACRS THE AREA THU AFTN INTO EARLY FRI MORNG. HI PRES WILL
THEN BLD INTO AND OVR THE REGION FRI THRU SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE L40S W AND M/U40S E WED...IN THE U40S TO L50S THU...IN THE
M/U40S FRI...AND RANGE THRU THE 40S SAT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S TO LWR 40S WED MORNG...IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S THU AND
FRI MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S SAT MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY
FROM THE COAST AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
THIS IS PUSHING ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS AND
IT WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
INITIALLY...JUST SEEING SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER MOST OF THE
AREA...BUT SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE SLIDING NORTH THROUGH THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT. AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TN RIVER
VALLEY TONIGHT...THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT UP THE COAST
AND SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN 6Z AND 9Z. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. ALSO
EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SE TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUST.

BEHIND THE FRONT...AFTER 9Z...THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
AND STILL BE GUSTY TO AROUND 15 KTS. BUT ONCE IN THE WARM
SECTOR...SHOULD SLOWLY SEE CEILINGS IMPROVE AND COULD POTENTIALLY
SEE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER 15Z...AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVING IN
AND MIXING HELP CEILINGS TO RISE.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS COMES ON WEDNESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NE ALONG THE COAST SPREADING RAIN AND LOW
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST UPDATED WITH AN UPGRADE TO GALE WARNING OVR THE OCEAN.
DESPITE WARM AIR OVR COOL WATER TEMPS...WITH A STRONG PRES
GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT AND WEAK LO PRES
DEVELOPMENT OVR NRN VA...AND LATEST NAM12 PROGGING 925 MB WINDS
~75 KT...THINK THAT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW HRS OF WINDS AOA
34 KT OVR THE OCEAN TNGT. SEAS WILL REACH 6-8 FT. GUSTS MAY COME
CLOSE TO GALE FORCE OVR THE BAY AS WELL (AT LEAST AT ELEVATED
SITES) WHERE STRONG SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. ALSO
MAINTAINED THE SCA HEADLINES FOR THE OTHER WTRS. THE GALE WARNING
ENDS LATE MON MORNING...BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED AS GUSTS COULD
CONTINUE IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE THRU THE AFTN HRS. THE SCA
HEADLINES ALL END DURING THE DAY MON AS WINDS DECREASE JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRNT WHICH CROSSES THE WTRS LATE MON NGT/TUE MORNG.
IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS THEN INTO TUE WITH HI PRES OVR THE
AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED MONDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

RIC 76 1979
ORF 78 1983
SBY 78 1931
ECG 77 1983

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ633-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632.
     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...ALB/TMG
AVIATION...ESS
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KRNK 231748
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1248 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD RAIN INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT...AND WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION
AND OTHER HIGH ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH TUESDAY...RETURNING TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL STORM TO
IMPACT PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1130 AM EST SUNDAY...
RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON A FEW DEGREES. MODIFIED
TIMING OF RAIN AND POPS.

AS OF 1010 AM EST SUNDAY...

WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COUNTIES OF TAZEWELL AND
SMYTH IN VIRGINIA AND MERCER IN WEST VIRGINIA WHERE SUSCEPTIBLE TO
THE STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST JET AOA 70 KTS TRANSLATING TO
LOWER ELEVATIONS. LOOKS LIKE THE 850MB JET PIVOTS JUST TO OUR WEST
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.

WARM FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL LIFT NORTH TODAY. THIS
MORNING KFCX WSR-88D SHOWED RAIN ADVANCING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD ACROSS ENTIRE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE RAIN
MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT.

THE SWODY1 HAS PUSHED THE CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM FURTHER NORTH
INTO OUR CWA. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL HINDER INSTABILITY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDING ANY EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM AT THIS TIME...BUT CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE SOUTHEAST.

TONIGHT... THE 850 MB FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO AND ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING. ONCE THE WARM FRONT SURGES THROUGH TONIGHT...A
PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST AND SHOULD RAPIDLY
TAPER PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR THIS MORNING ISC
UPDATED...ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS AND
RAIN. MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES IN HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. INCREASED QPF SLIGHTLY TOWARDS HPC IN THE SOUTH...WITH
HIGHEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE EASTERN FACING SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
NOT EXPECTED ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS WITH RAIN RATES. MORE CHANGES
LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN.


AS OF 330 AM EST SUNDAY...

EVERYTHING SEEMS TO BE UNFOLDING AS ADVERTISED AS PCPN TO OUR SOUTH
IS ADVANCING TOWARD THE REGION AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT ATTACHED TO A
DEVELOPING LOW IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DRY AIR WILL HINDER PROGRESS
OF PCPN AS IT ENTERS THE REGION...BUT EXPECT IT WILL PASS THE VA/NC
LINE DURING THE MORNING AND OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. PCPN WILL BE BIASED WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT AND LESSER AMOUNTS AS YOU GO FURTHER WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

THE BIGGEST CONCERN THROUGH THE NEAR TERM IS THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL SELY
JET WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PEAK AOA 70KTS JUST TO OUR WEST ROUGHLY FROM 5PM TO
1AM. THE COUNTIES OF TAZEWELL AND SMYTH IN VA AND MERCER IS WV ARE KNOWN TO
BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO STRONG WINDS TRANSLATING TO LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THIS TYPE
OF SITUATION SO WILL RAISE A WIND ADVSY FOR THESE LOCATIONS IN ANTICIPATION
OF GUSTS AROUND 50MPH. HOWEVER...EXPECTING WINDS NOT TOO FAR BELOW CRITERIA
FOR OTHER AREAS OF THE WESTERN SLOPES SO ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED IF
THE SITUATION UNFOLDS WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS.

ONCE THE WARM FRONT SURGES THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT WILL
WORK IN FROM THE WEST AND SHOULD RAPIDLY TAPER PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EST SUNDAY...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL 500H TROUGH WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
CONUS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH COOLER AIR REMAINING WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY...THEN ADVECTING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES A DRY COLD FRONT OVER AND EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE PERIOD. BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL THEN SET-UP
ALONG THE EAST COAST AND WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF STREAM TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE
NORTHEAST NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY.

IN THE WAKE OF SUNDAY NIGHTS WARM FRONTAL RAIN...FORECAST AREA
WILL BE IN THE DRY SLOT...WARM SECTOR SOUTHERLY WINDS PROVIDING A
BREEZY BUT MILD DAY MONDAY. 1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES OF
565-570DM AND 850H TEMPS OF +10 DEG C SUPPORT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S MONDAY...POSSIBLY TESTING THE LOWER
70S ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VA AND THE PIEDMONT. UNTIL SURFACE FRONT
CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE DAY...FORECAST AREA SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR/DRY SLOT WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THICKNESSES DROP BEHIND PASSING COLD
FRONT. ASIDE FOR SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SO BIGGEST CHANGE WILL BE A
SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION FROM SOUTH TO WEST...850 TEMPS TAKING
ABOUT A 10 DEGREE TUMBLE. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL RETURN TO
NOVEMBER NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE MU40S MTNS TO LM50S SOUTHSIDE
VA AND NC PIEDMONT.

WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL ENSURE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT VCNTY OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. TRACK/STRENGTH
OF THIS FEATURE WILL DEPEND ON OVERALL RESPONSE TO DYNAMIC FORCING
FROM SHORT WAVE ENERGY ARRIVING VIA THE UPPER LEVEL TROF...MODELS
TRENDING STRONGER AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THIS FEATURE WITH TIME.
AT THE VERY LEAST CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. QUESTIONS IS WHETHER THE MOISTURE WILL BECOME DEEP
ENOUGH THIS FAR WEST FROM THE COAST FOR PRECIPITATION. ATTM IT
APPEAR GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR RAIN TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 29 LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. IF PRECIPITATION
EXTENDS ALL THE WAY TO THE BLUE RIDGE...TEMPERATURES MAY BE COLD
ENOUGH ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM TO HAVE SNOW OR A RAIN
SNOW MIX. UNTIL A BETTER FIX ON STORM TRACK CAN BE
ESTABLISHED...QPF WILL REMAIN IN QUESTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EST SATURDAY...

TWO DISTINCT SYSTEMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR BRING SOME PRECIPITATION
TO PARTS OF THE AREA DURING THIS SEGMENT OF THE FORECAST. THE FIRST
ITEM OF INTEREST IS A LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG A
BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT WILL BE POSITIONED ALONG THE COAST DURING THE
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE
STILL INCONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER...AND WITH THEIR OWN PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS REGARDING THE TIMING...TRACK AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS FEATURE. YESTERDAY...THE ECWMF WAS THE ONLY OPERATIONAL
MODEL RUN THAT HINTED AT PRECIPITATION SKIRTING THE EASTERN EXTENT
OF THE FORECAST AREA. TODAY...ITS SOLUTIONS IS MORE ROBUST ON THIS
SCENARIO WITH PRECIPITATION NOW THE WHOLE WAY WEST TO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. TODAY...THE GFS SOLUTION IS ONLY SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST AS
COMPARED TO THE ECWMF FROM YESTERDAY...BUT STILL...HAS ALL BUT OUR
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES WITH AT LEAST 0.01 PRECIP. THE
CANADIAN SOLUTION KEEPS THE SYSTEM FARTHER OFF THE COAST WITH NOT A
DROP OF PRECIPITATION REACHING THE FORECAST AREA. OUR FORECAST FROM
YESTERDAY REFLECTED A MODEL BLEND CONSENSUS THAT WAS MORE IN LINE
WITH THE WETTER ECWMF SOLUTION. GIVEN BOTH THE GFS AND ECWMF ARE
WETTER FOR THE REGION...AND THE MODEL BLEND CONSENSUS IS ALSO WETTER
ACROSS THE REGION...HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT IN THE FORECAST.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO REFLECT 50
PERCENT IN THE EAST...WITH 20 TO 25 PERCENT IN THE WEST. SURFACE AND
LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MAINLY A SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW
FORECAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY...WITH PRIMARILY RAIN
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR ARRIVING ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR MORE LIGHT
SNOW...BUT WITH THE SYSTEM EXITING...MUCH LESS COVERAGE.

OUT NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT ZIPS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION
DURING THE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECWMF SOLUTIONS HAVE CHANGED COMPARED TO THEIR -24 HOUR
COUNTERPARTS. PRIOR...MODEL SOLUTIONS WERE HINTING AT A MORE
PROLONGED CLOSED LOW STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
WITH A MORE PROFOUND SHOT OF COLDER AIR IN ITS WAKE. THE LATEST
SOLUTIONS OFFER A MORE GLANCING BLOW OF ENERGY ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH THE COLDER AIR NOT HAVING AS MUCH CHANCE TO MAKE THE
TURN SOUTH PRIOR TO ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE
OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WHILE THE FORECAST WILL STILL OFFER SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL BE A BIT MILDER THAN WHAT AS OFFERED IN THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1250 PM EST SUNDAY...

WINDS...RAIN AND CLOUDS WILL HINDER AVIATION OPERATIONS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY.

WARM FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL LIFT NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. RAIN WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...CLOUD BASES WILL LOWER WITH MVFR
CIGS DEVELOPING AT ALL RNK TERMINAL FORECAST POINTS. ONSET OF RAIN
MAY RESULT IN RAPID DETERIATION OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO IFR BY
SUNSET WITH CONTINUATION OF LOW CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.

EXPECT PERIODS OF MDT AND HEAVY RAIN FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW LVL
WIND SHEAR ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO
AOA 50KTS TONIGHT. A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR DURING MONDAY OUTSIDE OF
THE MOUNTAINS AS A DRY SLOT DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE EXITING FRONT
FROM SUNDAY AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

 MONDAY INTO TUESDAY LOOK TO FEATURE QUITE A BIT OF WIND. NW FLOW
INTO MAY KEEP SUB VFR CIGS INTO BLF AND POSSIBLE LWB...WITH VFR TO
THE EAST. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UP THE
SOUTHEAST COAST BY WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY BRING WINTRY PRECIP TO THE
AREA ALONG WITH SUB VFR AT ALL SITES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 215 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WILL BE OUT
OF SERVICE UNTIL PARTS ARRIVE TO REPLACE THE SENSOR. UNTIL THEN
THE VISIBILITY WILL ONLY BE REPORTED WHEN THE CONTROL TOWER IS
STAFFED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     VAZ007-009.
NC...NONE.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     WVZ042.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...KK/MBS
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...KK/PM
EQUIPMENT...RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 231748
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1248 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD RAIN INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT...AND WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION
AND OTHER HIGH ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH TUESDAY...RETURNING TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL STORM TO
IMPACT PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1130 AM EST SUNDAY...
RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON A FEW DEGREES. MODIFIED
TIMING OF RAIN AND POPS.

AS OF 1010 AM EST SUNDAY...

WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COUNTIES OF TAZEWELL AND
SMYTH IN VIRGINIA AND MERCER IN WEST VIRGINIA WHERE SUSCEPTIBLE TO
THE STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST JET AOA 70 KTS TRANSLATING TO
LOWER ELEVATIONS. LOOKS LIKE THE 850MB JET PIVOTS JUST TO OUR WEST
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.

WARM FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL LIFT NORTH TODAY. THIS
MORNING KFCX WSR-88D SHOWED RAIN ADVANCING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD ACROSS ENTIRE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE RAIN
MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT.

THE SWODY1 HAS PUSHED THE CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM FURTHER NORTH
INTO OUR CWA. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL HINDER INSTABILITY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDING ANY EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM AT THIS TIME...BUT CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE SOUTHEAST.

TONIGHT... THE 850 MB FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO AND ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING. ONCE THE WARM FRONT SURGES THROUGH TONIGHT...A
PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST AND SHOULD RAPIDLY
TAPER PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR THIS MORNING ISC
UPDATED...ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS AND
RAIN. MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES IN HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. INCREASED QPF SLIGHTLY TOWARDS HPC IN THE SOUTH...WITH
HIGHEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE EASTERN FACING SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
NOT EXPECTED ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS WITH RAIN RATES. MORE CHANGES
LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN.


AS OF 330 AM EST SUNDAY...

EVERYTHING SEEMS TO BE UNFOLDING AS ADVERTISED AS PCPN TO OUR SOUTH
IS ADVANCING TOWARD THE REGION AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT ATTACHED TO A
DEVELOPING LOW IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DRY AIR WILL HINDER PROGRESS
OF PCPN AS IT ENTERS THE REGION...BUT EXPECT IT WILL PASS THE VA/NC
LINE DURING THE MORNING AND OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. PCPN WILL BE BIASED WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT AND LESSER AMOUNTS AS YOU GO FURTHER WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

THE BIGGEST CONCERN THROUGH THE NEAR TERM IS THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL SELY
JET WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PEAK AOA 70KTS JUST TO OUR WEST ROUGHLY FROM 5PM TO
1AM. THE COUNTIES OF TAZEWELL AND SMYTH IN VA AND MERCER IS WV ARE KNOWN TO
BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO STRONG WINDS TRANSLATING TO LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THIS TYPE
OF SITUATION SO WILL RAISE A WIND ADVSY FOR THESE LOCATIONS IN ANTICIPATION
OF GUSTS AROUND 50MPH. HOWEVER...EXPECTING WINDS NOT TOO FAR BELOW CRITERIA
FOR OTHER AREAS OF THE WESTERN SLOPES SO ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED IF
THE SITUATION UNFOLDS WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS.

ONCE THE WARM FRONT SURGES THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT WILL
WORK IN FROM THE WEST AND SHOULD RAPIDLY TAPER PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EST SUNDAY...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL 500H TROUGH WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
CONUS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH COOLER AIR REMAINING WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY...THEN ADVECTING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES A DRY COLD FRONT OVER AND EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE PERIOD. BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL THEN SET-UP
ALONG THE EAST COAST AND WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF STREAM TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE
NORTHEAST NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY.

IN THE WAKE OF SUNDAY NIGHTS WARM FRONTAL RAIN...FORECAST AREA
WILL BE IN THE DRY SLOT...WARM SECTOR SOUTHERLY WINDS PROVIDING A
BREEZY BUT MILD DAY MONDAY. 1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES OF
565-570DM AND 850H TEMPS OF +10 DEG C SUPPORT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S MONDAY...POSSIBLY TESTING THE LOWER
70S ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VA AND THE PIEDMONT. UNTIL SURFACE FRONT
CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE DAY...FORECAST AREA SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR/DRY SLOT WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THICKNESSES DROP BEHIND PASSING COLD
FRONT. ASIDE FOR SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SO BIGGEST CHANGE WILL BE A
SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION FROM SOUTH TO WEST...850 TEMPS TAKING
ABOUT A 10 DEGREE TUMBLE. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL RETURN TO
NOVEMBER NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE MU40S MTNS TO LM50S SOUTHSIDE
VA AND NC PIEDMONT.

WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL ENSURE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT VCNTY OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. TRACK/STRENGTH
OF THIS FEATURE WILL DEPEND ON OVERALL RESPONSE TO DYNAMIC FORCING
FROM SHORT WAVE ENERGY ARRIVING VIA THE UPPER LEVEL TROF...MODELS
TRENDING STRONGER AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THIS FEATURE WITH TIME.
AT THE VERY LEAST CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. QUESTIONS IS WHETHER THE MOISTURE WILL BECOME DEEP
ENOUGH THIS FAR WEST FROM THE COAST FOR PRECIPITATION. ATTM IT
APPEAR GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR RAIN TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 29 LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. IF PRECIPITATION
EXTENDS ALL THE WAY TO THE BLUE RIDGE...TEMPERATURES MAY BE COLD
ENOUGH ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM TO HAVE SNOW OR A RAIN
SNOW MIX. UNTIL A BETTER FIX ON STORM TRACK CAN BE
ESTABLISHED...QPF WILL REMAIN IN QUESTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EST SATURDAY...

TWO DISTINCT SYSTEMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR BRING SOME PRECIPITATION
TO PARTS OF THE AREA DURING THIS SEGMENT OF THE FORECAST. THE FIRST
ITEM OF INTEREST IS A LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG A
BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT WILL BE POSITIONED ALONG THE COAST DURING THE
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE
STILL INCONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER...AND WITH THEIR OWN PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS REGARDING THE TIMING...TRACK AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS FEATURE. YESTERDAY...THE ECWMF WAS THE ONLY OPERATIONAL
MODEL RUN THAT HINTED AT PRECIPITATION SKIRTING THE EASTERN EXTENT
OF THE FORECAST AREA. TODAY...ITS SOLUTIONS IS MORE ROBUST ON THIS
SCENARIO WITH PRECIPITATION NOW THE WHOLE WAY WEST TO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. TODAY...THE GFS SOLUTION IS ONLY SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST AS
COMPARED TO THE ECWMF FROM YESTERDAY...BUT STILL...HAS ALL BUT OUR
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES WITH AT LEAST 0.01 PRECIP. THE
CANADIAN SOLUTION KEEPS THE SYSTEM FARTHER OFF THE COAST WITH NOT A
DROP OF PRECIPITATION REACHING THE FORECAST AREA. OUR FORECAST FROM
YESTERDAY REFLECTED A MODEL BLEND CONSENSUS THAT WAS MORE IN LINE
WITH THE WETTER ECWMF SOLUTION. GIVEN BOTH THE GFS AND ECWMF ARE
WETTER FOR THE REGION...AND THE MODEL BLEND CONSENSUS IS ALSO WETTER
ACROSS THE REGION...HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT IN THE FORECAST.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO REFLECT 50
PERCENT IN THE EAST...WITH 20 TO 25 PERCENT IN THE WEST. SURFACE AND
LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MAINLY A SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW
FORECAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY...WITH PRIMARILY RAIN
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR ARRIVING ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR MORE LIGHT
SNOW...BUT WITH THE SYSTEM EXITING...MUCH LESS COVERAGE.

OUT NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT ZIPS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION
DURING THE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECWMF SOLUTIONS HAVE CHANGED COMPARED TO THEIR -24 HOUR
COUNTERPARTS. PRIOR...MODEL SOLUTIONS WERE HINTING AT A MORE
PROLONGED CLOSED LOW STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
WITH A MORE PROFOUND SHOT OF COLDER AIR IN ITS WAKE. THE LATEST
SOLUTIONS OFFER A MORE GLANCING BLOW OF ENERGY ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH THE COLDER AIR NOT HAVING AS MUCH CHANCE TO MAKE THE
TURN SOUTH PRIOR TO ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE
OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WHILE THE FORECAST WILL STILL OFFER SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL BE A BIT MILDER THAN WHAT AS OFFERED IN THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1250 PM EST SUNDAY...

WINDS...RAIN AND CLOUDS WILL HINDER AVIATION OPERATIONS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY.

WARM FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL LIFT NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. RAIN WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...CLOUD BASES WILL LOWER WITH MVFR
CIGS DEVELOPING AT ALL RNK TERMINAL FORECAST POINTS. ONSET OF RAIN
MAY RESULT IN RAPID DETERIATION OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO IFR BY
SUNSET WITH CONTINUATION OF LOW CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.

EXPECT PERIODS OF MDT AND HEAVY RAIN FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW LVL
WIND SHEAR ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO
AOA 50KTS TONIGHT. A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR DURING MONDAY OUTSIDE OF
THE MOUNTAINS AS A DRY SLOT DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE EXITING FRONT
FROM SUNDAY AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

 MONDAY INTO TUESDAY LOOK TO FEATURE QUITE A BIT OF WIND. NW FLOW
INTO MAY KEEP SUB VFR CIGS INTO BLF AND POSSIBLE LWB...WITH VFR TO
THE EAST. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UP THE
SOUTHEAST COAST BY WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY BRING WINTRY PRECIP TO THE
AREA ALONG WITH SUB VFR AT ALL SITES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 215 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WILL BE OUT
OF SERVICE UNTIL PARTS ARRIVE TO REPLACE THE SENSOR. UNTIL THEN
THE VISIBILITY WILL ONLY BE REPORTED WHEN THE CONTROL TOWER IS
STAFFED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     VAZ007-009.
NC...NONE.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     WVZ042.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...KK/MBS
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...KK/PM
EQUIPMENT...RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 231748
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1248 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD RAIN INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT...AND WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION
AND OTHER HIGH ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH TUESDAY...RETURNING TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL STORM TO
IMPACT PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1130 AM EST SUNDAY...
RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON A FEW DEGREES. MODIFIED
TIMING OF RAIN AND POPS.

AS OF 1010 AM EST SUNDAY...

WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COUNTIES OF TAZEWELL AND
SMYTH IN VIRGINIA AND MERCER IN WEST VIRGINIA WHERE SUSCEPTIBLE TO
THE STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST JET AOA 70 KTS TRANSLATING TO
LOWER ELEVATIONS. LOOKS LIKE THE 850MB JET PIVOTS JUST TO OUR WEST
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.

WARM FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL LIFT NORTH TODAY. THIS
MORNING KFCX WSR-88D SHOWED RAIN ADVANCING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD ACROSS ENTIRE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE RAIN
MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT.

THE SWODY1 HAS PUSHED THE CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM FURTHER NORTH
INTO OUR CWA. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL HINDER INSTABILITY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDING ANY EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM AT THIS TIME...BUT CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE SOUTHEAST.

TONIGHT... THE 850 MB FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO AND ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING. ONCE THE WARM FRONT SURGES THROUGH TONIGHT...A
PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST AND SHOULD RAPIDLY
TAPER PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR THIS MORNING ISC
UPDATED...ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS AND
RAIN. MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES IN HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. INCREASED QPF SLIGHTLY TOWARDS HPC IN THE SOUTH...WITH
HIGHEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE EASTERN FACING SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
NOT EXPECTED ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS WITH RAIN RATES. MORE CHANGES
LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN.


AS OF 330 AM EST SUNDAY...

EVERYTHING SEEMS TO BE UNFOLDING AS ADVERTISED AS PCPN TO OUR SOUTH
IS ADVANCING TOWARD THE REGION AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT ATTACHED TO A
DEVELOPING LOW IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DRY AIR WILL HINDER PROGRESS
OF PCPN AS IT ENTERS THE REGION...BUT EXPECT IT WILL PASS THE VA/NC
LINE DURING THE MORNING AND OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. PCPN WILL BE BIASED WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT AND LESSER AMOUNTS AS YOU GO FURTHER WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

THE BIGGEST CONCERN THROUGH THE NEAR TERM IS THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL SELY
JET WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PEAK AOA 70KTS JUST TO OUR WEST ROUGHLY FROM 5PM TO
1AM. THE COUNTIES OF TAZEWELL AND SMYTH IN VA AND MERCER IS WV ARE KNOWN TO
BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO STRONG WINDS TRANSLATING TO LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THIS TYPE
OF SITUATION SO WILL RAISE A WIND ADVSY FOR THESE LOCATIONS IN ANTICIPATION
OF GUSTS AROUND 50MPH. HOWEVER...EXPECTING WINDS NOT TOO FAR BELOW CRITERIA
FOR OTHER AREAS OF THE WESTERN SLOPES SO ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED IF
THE SITUATION UNFOLDS WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS.

ONCE THE WARM FRONT SURGES THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT WILL
WORK IN FROM THE WEST AND SHOULD RAPIDLY TAPER PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EST SUNDAY...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL 500H TROUGH WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
CONUS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH COOLER AIR REMAINING WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY...THEN ADVECTING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES A DRY COLD FRONT OVER AND EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE PERIOD. BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL THEN SET-UP
ALONG THE EAST COAST AND WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF STREAM TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE
NORTHEAST NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY.

IN THE WAKE OF SUNDAY NIGHTS WARM FRONTAL RAIN...FORECAST AREA
WILL BE IN THE DRY SLOT...WARM SECTOR SOUTHERLY WINDS PROVIDING A
BREEZY BUT MILD DAY MONDAY. 1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES OF
565-570DM AND 850H TEMPS OF +10 DEG C SUPPORT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S MONDAY...POSSIBLY TESTING THE LOWER
70S ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VA AND THE PIEDMONT. UNTIL SURFACE FRONT
CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE DAY...FORECAST AREA SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR/DRY SLOT WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THICKNESSES DROP BEHIND PASSING COLD
FRONT. ASIDE FOR SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SO BIGGEST CHANGE WILL BE A
SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION FROM SOUTH TO WEST...850 TEMPS TAKING
ABOUT A 10 DEGREE TUMBLE. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL RETURN TO
NOVEMBER NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE MU40S MTNS TO LM50S SOUTHSIDE
VA AND NC PIEDMONT.

WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL ENSURE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT VCNTY OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. TRACK/STRENGTH
OF THIS FEATURE WILL DEPEND ON OVERALL RESPONSE TO DYNAMIC FORCING
FROM SHORT WAVE ENERGY ARRIVING VIA THE UPPER LEVEL TROF...MODELS
TRENDING STRONGER AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THIS FEATURE WITH TIME.
AT THE VERY LEAST CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. QUESTIONS IS WHETHER THE MOISTURE WILL BECOME DEEP
ENOUGH THIS FAR WEST FROM THE COAST FOR PRECIPITATION. ATTM IT
APPEAR GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR RAIN TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 29 LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. IF PRECIPITATION
EXTENDS ALL THE WAY TO THE BLUE RIDGE...TEMPERATURES MAY BE COLD
ENOUGH ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM TO HAVE SNOW OR A RAIN
SNOW MIX. UNTIL A BETTER FIX ON STORM TRACK CAN BE
ESTABLISHED...QPF WILL REMAIN IN QUESTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EST SATURDAY...

TWO DISTINCT SYSTEMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR BRING SOME PRECIPITATION
TO PARTS OF THE AREA DURING THIS SEGMENT OF THE FORECAST. THE FIRST
ITEM OF INTEREST IS A LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG A
BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT WILL BE POSITIONED ALONG THE COAST DURING THE
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE
STILL INCONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER...AND WITH THEIR OWN PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS REGARDING THE TIMING...TRACK AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS FEATURE. YESTERDAY...THE ECWMF WAS THE ONLY OPERATIONAL
MODEL RUN THAT HINTED AT PRECIPITATION SKIRTING THE EASTERN EXTENT
OF THE FORECAST AREA. TODAY...ITS SOLUTIONS IS MORE ROBUST ON THIS
SCENARIO WITH PRECIPITATION NOW THE WHOLE WAY WEST TO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. TODAY...THE GFS SOLUTION IS ONLY SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST AS
COMPARED TO THE ECWMF FROM YESTERDAY...BUT STILL...HAS ALL BUT OUR
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES WITH AT LEAST 0.01 PRECIP. THE
CANADIAN SOLUTION KEEPS THE SYSTEM FARTHER OFF THE COAST WITH NOT A
DROP OF PRECIPITATION REACHING THE FORECAST AREA. OUR FORECAST FROM
YESTERDAY REFLECTED A MODEL BLEND CONSENSUS THAT WAS MORE IN LINE
WITH THE WETTER ECWMF SOLUTION. GIVEN BOTH THE GFS AND ECWMF ARE
WETTER FOR THE REGION...AND THE MODEL BLEND CONSENSUS IS ALSO WETTER
ACROSS THE REGION...HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT IN THE FORECAST.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO REFLECT 50
PERCENT IN THE EAST...WITH 20 TO 25 PERCENT IN THE WEST. SURFACE AND
LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MAINLY A SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW
FORECAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY...WITH PRIMARILY RAIN
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR ARRIVING ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR MORE LIGHT
SNOW...BUT WITH THE SYSTEM EXITING...MUCH LESS COVERAGE.

OUT NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT ZIPS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION
DURING THE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECWMF SOLUTIONS HAVE CHANGED COMPARED TO THEIR -24 HOUR
COUNTERPARTS. PRIOR...MODEL SOLUTIONS WERE HINTING AT A MORE
PROLONGED CLOSED LOW STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
WITH A MORE PROFOUND SHOT OF COLDER AIR IN ITS WAKE. THE LATEST
SOLUTIONS OFFER A MORE GLANCING BLOW OF ENERGY ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH THE COLDER AIR NOT HAVING AS MUCH CHANCE TO MAKE THE
TURN SOUTH PRIOR TO ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE
OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WHILE THE FORECAST WILL STILL OFFER SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL BE A BIT MILDER THAN WHAT AS OFFERED IN THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1250 PM EST SUNDAY...

WINDS...RAIN AND CLOUDS WILL HINDER AVIATION OPERATIONS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY.

WARM FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL LIFT NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. RAIN WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...CLOUD BASES WILL LOWER WITH MVFR
CIGS DEVELOPING AT ALL RNK TERMINAL FORECAST POINTS. ONSET OF RAIN
MAY RESULT IN RAPID DETERIATION OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO IFR BY
SUNSET WITH CONTINUATION OF LOW CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.

EXPECT PERIODS OF MDT AND HEAVY RAIN FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW LVL
WIND SHEAR ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO
AOA 50KTS TONIGHT. A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR DURING MONDAY OUTSIDE OF
THE MOUNTAINS AS A DRY SLOT DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE EXITING FRONT
FROM SUNDAY AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

 MONDAY INTO TUESDAY LOOK TO FEATURE QUITE A BIT OF WIND. NW FLOW
INTO MAY KEEP SUB VFR CIGS INTO BLF AND POSSIBLE LWB...WITH VFR TO
THE EAST. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UP THE
SOUTHEAST COAST BY WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY BRING WINTRY PRECIP TO THE
AREA ALONG WITH SUB VFR AT ALL SITES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 215 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WILL BE OUT
OF SERVICE UNTIL PARTS ARRIVE TO REPLACE THE SENSOR. UNTIL THEN
THE VISIBILITY WILL ONLY BE REPORTED WHEN THE CONTROL TOWER IS
STAFFED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     VAZ007-009.
NC...NONE.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     WVZ042.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...KK/MBS
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...KK/PM
EQUIPMENT...RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 231748
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1248 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD RAIN INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT...AND WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION
AND OTHER HIGH ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH TUESDAY...RETURNING TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL STORM TO
IMPACT PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1130 AM EST SUNDAY...
RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON A FEW DEGREES. MODIFIED
TIMING OF RAIN AND POPS.

AS OF 1010 AM EST SUNDAY...

WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COUNTIES OF TAZEWELL AND
SMYTH IN VIRGINIA AND MERCER IN WEST VIRGINIA WHERE SUSCEPTIBLE TO
THE STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST JET AOA 70 KTS TRANSLATING TO
LOWER ELEVATIONS. LOOKS LIKE THE 850MB JET PIVOTS JUST TO OUR WEST
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.

WARM FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL LIFT NORTH TODAY. THIS
MORNING KFCX WSR-88D SHOWED RAIN ADVANCING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD ACROSS ENTIRE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE RAIN
MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT.

THE SWODY1 HAS PUSHED THE CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM FURTHER NORTH
INTO OUR CWA. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL HINDER INSTABILITY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDING ANY EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM AT THIS TIME...BUT CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE SOUTHEAST.

TONIGHT... THE 850 MB FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO AND ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING. ONCE THE WARM FRONT SURGES THROUGH TONIGHT...A
PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST AND SHOULD RAPIDLY
TAPER PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR THIS MORNING ISC
UPDATED...ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS AND
RAIN. MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES IN HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. INCREASED QPF SLIGHTLY TOWARDS HPC IN THE SOUTH...WITH
HIGHEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE EASTERN FACING SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
NOT EXPECTED ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS WITH RAIN RATES. MORE CHANGES
LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN.


AS OF 330 AM EST SUNDAY...

EVERYTHING SEEMS TO BE UNFOLDING AS ADVERTISED AS PCPN TO OUR SOUTH
IS ADVANCING TOWARD THE REGION AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT ATTACHED TO A
DEVELOPING LOW IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DRY AIR WILL HINDER PROGRESS
OF PCPN AS IT ENTERS THE REGION...BUT EXPECT IT WILL PASS THE VA/NC
LINE DURING THE MORNING AND OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. PCPN WILL BE BIASED WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT AND LESSER AMOUNTS AS YOU GO FURTHER WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

THE BIGGEST CONCERN THROUGH THE NEAR TERM IS THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL SELY
JET WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PEAK AOA 70KTS JUST TO OUR WEST ROUGHLY FROM 5PM TO
1AM. THE COUNTIES OF TAZEWELL AND SMYTH IN VA AND MERCER IS WV ARE KNOWN TO
BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO STRONG WINDS TRANSLATING TO LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THIS TYPE
OF SITUATION SO WILL RAISE A WIND ADVSY FOR THESE LOCATIONS IN ANTICIPATION
OF GUSTS AROUND 50MPH. HOWEVER...EXPECTING WINDS NOT TOO FAR BELOW CRITERIA
FOR OTHER AREAS OF THE WESTERN SLOPES SO ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED IF
THE SITUATION UNFOLDS WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS.

ONCE THE WARM FRONT SURGES THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT WILL
WORK IN FROM THE WEST AND SHOULD RAPIDLY TAPER PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EST SUNDAY...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL 500H TROUGH WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
CONUS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH COOLER AIR REMAINING WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY...THEN ADVECTING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES A DRY COLD FRONT OVER AND EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE PERIOD. BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL THEN SET-UP
ALONG THE EAST COAST AND WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF STREAM TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE
NORTHEAST NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY.

IN THE WAKE OF SUNDAY NIGHTS WARM FRONTAL RAIN...FORECAST AREA
WILL BE IN THE DRY SLOT...WARM SECTOR SOUTHERLY WINDS PROVIDING A
BREEZY BUT MILD DAY MONDAY. 1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES OF
565-570DM AND 850H TEMPS OF +10 DEG C SUPPORT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S MONDAY...POSSIBLY TESTING THE LOWER
70S ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VA AND THE PIEDMONT. UNTIL SURFACE FRONT
CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE DAY...FORECAST AREA SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR/DRY SLOT WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THICKNESSES DROP BEHIND PASSING COLD
FRONT. ASIDE FOR SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SO BIGGEST CHANGE WILL BE A
SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION FROM SOUTH TO WEST...850 TEMPS TAKING
ABOUT A 10 DEGREE TUMBLE. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL RETURN TO
NOVEMBER NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE MU40S MTNS TO LM50S SOUTHSIDE
VA AND NC PIEDMONT.

WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL ENSURE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT VCNTY OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. TRACK/STRENGTH
OF THIS FEATURE WILL DEPEND ON OVERALL RESPONSE TO DYNAMIC FORCING
FROM SHORT WAVE ENERGY ARRIVING VIA THE UPPER LEVEL TROF...MODELS
TRENDING STRONGER AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THIS FEATURE WITH TIME.
AT THE VERY LEAST CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. QUESTIONS IS WHETHER THE MOISTURE WILL BECOME DEEP
ENOUGH THIS FAR WEST FROM THE COAST FOR PRECIPITATION. ATTM IT
APPEAR GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR RAIN TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 29 LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. IF PRECIPITATION
EXTENDS ALL THE WAY TO THE BLUE RIDGE...TEMPERATURES MAY BE COLD
ENOUGH ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM TO HAVE SNOW OR A RAIN
SNOW MIX. UNTIL A BETTER FIX ON STORM TRACK CAN BE
ESTABLISHED...QPF WILL REMAIN IN QUESTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EST SATURDAY...

TWO DISTINCT SYSTEMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR BRING SOME PRECIPITATION
TO PARTS OF THE AREA DURING THIS SEGMENT OF THE FORECAST. THE FIRST
ITEM OF INTEREST IS A LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG A
BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT WILL BE POSITIONED ALONG THE COAST DURING THE
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE
STILL INCONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER...AND WITH THEIR OWN PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS REGARDING THE TIMING...TRACK AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS FEATURE. YESTERDAY...THE ECWMF WAS THE ONLY OPERATIONAL
MODEL RUN THAT HINTED AT PRECIPITATION SKIRTING THE EASTERN EXTENT
OF THE FORECAST AREA. TODAY...ITS SOLUTIONS IS MORE ROBUST ON THIS
SCENARIO WITH PRECIPITATION NOW THE WHOLE WAY WEST TO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. TODAY...THE GFS SOLUTION IS ONLY SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST AS
COMPARED TO THE ECWMF FROM YESTERDAY...BUT STILL...HAS ALL BUT OUR
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES WITH AT LEAST 0.01 PRECIP. THE
CANADIAN SOLUTION KEEPS THE SYSTEM FARTHER OFF THE COAST WITH NOT A
DROP OF PRECIPITATION REACHING THE FORECAST AREA. OUR FORECAST FROM
YESTERDAY REFLECTED A MODEL BLEND CONSENSUS THAT WAS MORE IN LINE
WITH THE WETTER ECWMF SOLUTION. GIVEN BOTH THE GFS AND ECWMF ARE
WETTER FOR THE REGION...AND THE MODEL BLEND CONSENSUS IS ALSO WETTER
ACROSS THE REGION...HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT IN THE FORECAST.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO REFLECT 50
PERCENT IN THE EAST...WITH 20 TO 25 PERCENT IN THE WEST. SURFACE AND
LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MAINLY A SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW
FORECAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY...WITH PRIMARILY RAIN
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR ARRIVING ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR MORE LIGHT
SNOW...BUT WITH THE SYSTEM EXITING...MUCH LESS COVERAGE.

OUT NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT ZIPS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION
DURING THE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECWMF SOLUTIONS HAVE CHANGED COMPARED TO THEIR -24 HOUR
COUNTERPARTS. PRIOR...MODEL SOLUTIONS WERE HINTING AT A MORE
PROLONGED CLOSED LOW STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
WITH A MORE PROFOUND SHOT OF COLDER AIR IN ITS WAKE. THE LATEST
SOLUTIONS OFFER A MORE GLANCING BLOW OF ENERGY ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH THE COLDER AIR NOT HAVING AS MUCH CHANCE TO MAKE THE
TURN SOUTH PRIOR TO ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE
OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WHILE THE FORECAST WILL STILL OFFER SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL BE A BIT MILDER THAN WHAT AS OFFERED IN THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1250 PM EST SUNDAY...

WINDS...RAIN AND CLOUDS WILL HINDER AVIATION OPERATIONS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY.

WARM FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL LIFT NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. RAIN WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...CLOUD BASES WILL LOWER WITH MVFR
CIGS DEVELOPING AT ALL RNK TERMINAL FORECAST POINTS. ONSET OF RAIN
MAY RESULT IN RAPID DETERIATION OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO IFR BY
SUNSET WITH CONTINUATION OF LOW CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.

EXPECT PERIODS OF MDT AND HEAVY RAIN FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW LVL
WIND SHEAR ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO
AOA 50KTS TONIGHT. A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR DURING MONDAY OUTSIDE OF
THE MOUNTAINS AS A DRY SLOT DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE EXITING FRONT
FROM SUNDAY AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

 MONDAY INTO TUESDAY LOOK TO FEATURE QUITE A BIT OF WIND. NW FLOW
INTO MAY KEEP SUB VFR CIGS INTO BLF AND POSSIBLE LWB...WITH VFR TO
THE EAST. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UP THE
SOUTHEAST COAST BY WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY BRING WINTRY PRECIP TO THE
AREA ALONG WITH SUB VFR AT ALL SITES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 215 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WILL BE OUT
OF SERVICE UNTIL PARTS ARRIVE TO REPLACE THE SENSOR. UNTIL THEN
THE VISIBILITY WILL ONLY BE REPORTED WHEN THE CONTROL TOWER IS
STAFFED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     VAZ007-009.
NC...NONE.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     WVZ042.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...KK/MBS
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...KK/PM
EQUIPMENT...RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 231510
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1010 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD RAIN INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT...AND WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION
AND OTHER HIGH ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH TUESDAY...RETURNING TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL STORM TO
IMPACT PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 AM EST SUNDAY...

WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COUNTIES OF TAZEWELL AND
SMYTH IN VIRGINIA AND MERCER IN WEST VIRGINIA WHERE SUSCEPTIBLE TO
THE STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST JET AOA 70 KTS TRANSLATING TO
LOWER ELEVATIONS. LOOKS LIKE THE 850MB JET PIVOTS JUST TO OUR WEST
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.

WARM FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL LIFT NORTH TODAY. THIS
MORNING KFCX WSR-88D SHOWED RAIN ADVANCING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD ACROSS ENTIRE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE RAIN
MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT.

THE SWODY1 HAS PUSHED THE CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM FURTHER NORTH
INTO OUR CWA. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL HINDER INSTABILITY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDING ANY EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM AT THIS TIME...BUT CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE SOUTHEAST.

TONIGHT... THE 850 MB FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO AND ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING. ONCE THE WARM FRONT SURGES THROUGH TONIGHT...A
PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST AND SHOULD RAPIDLY
TAPER PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR THIS MORNING ISC
UPDATED...ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS AND
RAIN. MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES IN HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. INCREASED QPF SLIGHTLY TOWARDS HPC IN THE SOUTH...WITH
HIGHEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE EASTERN FACING SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
NOT EXPECTED ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS WITH RAIN RATES. MORE CHANGES
LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN.


AS OF 330 AM EST SUNDAY...

EVERYTHING SEEMS TO BE UNFOLDING AS ADVERTISED AS PCPN TO OUR SOUTH
IS ADVANCING TOWARD THE REGION AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT ATTACHED TO A
DEVELOPING LOW IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DRY AIR WILL HINDER PROGRESS
OF PCPN AS IT ENTERS THE REGION...BUT EXPECT IT WILL PASS THE VA/NC
LINE DURING THE MORNING AND OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. PCPN WILL BE BIASED WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT AND LESSER AMOUNTS AS YOU GO FURTHER WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

THE BIGGEST CONCERN THROUGH THE NEAR TERM IS THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL SELY
JET WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PEAK AOA 70KTS JUST TO OUR WEST ROUGHLY FROM 5PM TO
1AM. THE COUNTIES OF TAZEWELL AND SMYTH IN VA AND MERCER IS WV ARE KNOWN TO
BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO STRONG WINDS TRANSLATING TO LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THIS TYPE
OF SITUATION SO WILL RAISE A WIND ADVSY FOR THESE LOCATIONS IN ANTICIPATION
OF GUSTS AROUND 50MPH. HOWEVER...EXPECTING WINDS NOT TOO FAR BELOW CRITERIA
FOR OTHER AREAS OF THE WESTERN SLOPES SO ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED IF
THE SITUATION UNFOLDS WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS.

ONCE THE WARM FRONT SURGES THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT WILL
WORK IN FROM THE WEST AND SHOULD RAPIDLY TAPER PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EST SUNDAY...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL 500H TROUGH WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
CONUS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH COOLER AIR REMAINING WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY...THEN ADVECTING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES A DRY COLD FRONT OVER AND EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE PERIOD. BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL THEN SET-UP
ALONG THE EAST COAST AND WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF STREAM TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE
NORTHEAST NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY.

IN THE WAKE OF SUNDAY NIGHTS WARM FRONTAL RAIN...FORECAST AREA
WILL BE IN THE DRY SLOT...WARM SECTOR SOUTHERLY WINDS PROVIDING A
BREEZY BUT MILD DAY MONDAY. 1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES OF
565-570DM AND 850H TEMPS OF +10 DEG C SUPPORT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S MONDAY...POSSIBLY TESTING THE LOWER
70S ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VA AND THE PIEDMONT. UNTIL SURFACE FRONT
CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE DAY...FORECAST AREA SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR/DRY SLOT WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THICKNESSES DROP BEHIND PASSING COLD
FRONT. ASIDE FOR SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SO BIGGEST CHANGE WILL BE A
SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION FROM SOUTH TO WEST...850 TEMPS TAKING
ABOUT A 10 DEGREE TUMBLE. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL RETURN TO
NOVEMBER NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE MU40S MTNS TO LM50S SOUTHSIDE
VA AND NC PIEDMONT.

WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL ENSURE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT VCNTY OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. TRACK/STRENGTH
OF THIS FEATURE WILL DEPEND ON OVERALL RESPONSE TO DYNAMIC FORCING
FROM SHORT WAVE ENERGY ARRIVING VIA THE UPPER LEVEL TROF...MODELS
TRENDING STRONGER AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THIS FEATURE WITH TIME.
AT THE VERY LEAST CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. QUESTIONS IS WHETHER THE MOISTURE WILL BECOME DEEP
ENOUGH THIS FAR WEST FROM THE COAST FOR PRECIPITATION. ATTM IT
APPEAR GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR RAIN TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 29 LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. IF PRECIPITATION
EXTENDS ALL THE WAY TO THE BLUE RIDGE...TEMPERATURES MAY BE COLD
ENOUGH ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM TO HAVE SNOW OR A RAIN
SNOW MIX. UNTIL A BETTER FIX ON STORM TRACK CAN BE
ESTABLISHED...QPF WILL REMAIN IN QUESTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EST SATURDAY...

TWO DISTINCT SYSTEMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR BRING SOME PRECIPITATION
TO PARTS OF THE AREA DURING THIS SEGMENT OF THE FORECAST. THE FIRST
ITEM OF INTEREST IS A LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG A
BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT WILL BE POSITIONED ALONG THE COAST DURING THE
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE
STILL INCONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER...AND WITH THEIR OWN PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS REGARDING THE TIMING...TRACK AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS FEATURE. YESTERDAY...THE ECWMF WAS THE ONLY OPERATIONAL
MODEL RUN THAT HINTED AT PRECIPITATION SKIRTING THE EASTERN EXTENT
OF THE FORECAST AREA. TODAY...ITS SOLUTIONS IS MORE ROBUST ON THIS
SCENARIO WITH PRECIPITATION NOW THE WHOLE WAY WEST TO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. TODAY...THE GFS SOLUTION IS ONLY SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST AS
COMPARED TO THE ECWMF FROM YESTERDAY...BUT STILL...HAS ALL BUT OUR
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES WITH AT LEAST 0.01 PRECIP. THE
CANADIAN SOLUTION KEEPS THE SYSTEM FARTHER OFF THE COAST WITH NOT A
DROP OF PRECIPITATION REACHING THE FORECAST AREA. OUR FORECAST FROM
YESTERDAY REFLECTED A MODEL BLEND CONSENSUS THAT WAS MORE IN LINE
WITH THE WETTER ECWMF SOLUTION. GIVEN BOTH THE GFS AND ECWMF ARE
WETTER FOR THE REGION...AND THE MODEL BLEND CONSENSUS IS ALSO WETTER
ACROSS THE REGION...HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT IN THE FORECAST.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO REFLECT 50
PERCENT IN THE EAST...WITH 20 TO 25 PERCENT IN THE WEST. SURFACE AND
LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MAINLY A SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW
FORECAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY...WITH PRIMARILY RAIN
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR ARRIVING ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR MORE LIGHT
SNOW...BUT WITH THE SYSTEM EXITING...MUCH LESS COVERAGE.

OUT NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT ZIPS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION
DURING THE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECWMF SOLUTIONS HAVE CHANGED COMPARED TO THEIR -24 HOUR
COUNTERPARTS. PRIOR...MODEL SOLUTIONS WERE HINTING AT A MORE
PROLONGED CLOSED LOW STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
WITH A MORE PROFOUND SHOT OF COLDER AIR IN ITS WAKE. THE LATEST
SOLUTIONS OFFER A MORE GLANCING BLOW OF ENERGY ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH THE COLDER AIR NOT HAVING AS MUCH CHANCE TO MAKE THE
TURN SOUTH PRIOR TO ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE
OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WHILE THE FORECAST WILL STILL OFFER SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL BE A BIT MILDER THAN WHAT AS OFFERED IN THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 800 AM EST SUNDAY...

MODELS IN AGREEMENT IN HANDLING OF UPCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM. STILL
ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH NOON EST TODAY BEFORE AIRMASS
SATURATES RESULTING IN RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH SUB VFR CIGS/VSBYS.
WARM FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL LIFT NORTH TODAY. RADAR
IS ALREADY INDICATING BLOSSOMING AREA OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES...MOVEMENT IS TO THE NORTHEAST. WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TO THE GULF COAST ARE IFR AND THESE SORT OF
CONDITIONS ARE MOVING NORTHEAST AND WILL OVERSPREAD THE VIRGINIAS
THIS AFTERNOON.

THROUGHOUT THE DAY CLOUD BASES WILL LOWER WITH MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING AT ALL RNK TERMINAL FORECAST POINTS. ONSET OF RAIN WILL
BEGIN BETWEEN NOON-4PM AND WILL THEN RESULT IN RAPID DETERIATION
OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO IFR BY SUNSET WITH CONTINUATION OF LOW
CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

EXPECT PERIODS OF MDT AND HEAVY RAIN FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. CONTINUING TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR
LOW LVL WIND SHEAR AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO AOA 60KTS BY
SUNSET. WILL NOT MENTION IN THIS PACKAGE BUT MAY INCLUDE WITH THE
18Z TAF ISSUANCE IF NEEDED.


EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR DURING MONDAY OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A
DRY SLOT DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE EXITING FRONT FROM SUNDAY AND THE
NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. MONDAY INTO TUESDAY LOOK TO FEATURE
QUITE A BIT OF WIND. NW FLOW INTO MAY KEEP SUB VFR CIGS INTO BLF
AND POSSIBLE LWB...WITH VFR TO THE EAST. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY
BRING WINTRY PRECIP TO THE AREA ALONG WITH SUB VFR AT ALL SITES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 215 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WILL BE OUT
OF SERVICE UNTIL PARTS ARRIVE TO REPLACE THE SENSOR. UNTIL THEN
THE VISIBILITY WILL ONLY BE REPORTED WHEN THE CONTROL TOWER IS
STAFFED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     VAZ007-009.
NC...NONE.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     WVZ042.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...KK/MBS
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...PM
EQUIPMENT...RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 231510
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1010 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD RAIN INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT...AND WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION
AND OTHER HIGH ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH TUESDAY...RETURNING TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL STORM TO
IMPACT PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 AM EST SUNDAY...

WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COUNTIES OF TAZEWELL AND
SMYTH IN VIRGINIA AND MERCER IN WEST VIRGINIA WHERE SUSCEPTIBLE TO
THE STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST JET AOA 70 KTS TRANSLATING TO
LOWER ELEVATIONS. LOOKS LIKE THE 850MB JET PIVOTS JUST TO OUR WEST
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.

WARM FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL LIFT NORTH TODAY. THIS
MORNING KFCX WSR-88D SHOWED RAIN ADVANCING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD ACROSS ENTIRE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE RAIN
MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT.

THE SWODY1 HAS PUSHED THE CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM FURTHER NORTH
INTO OUR CWA. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL HINDER INSTABILITY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDING ANY EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM AT THIS TIME...BUT CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE SOUTHEAST.

TONIGHT... THE 850 MB FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO AND ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING. ONCE THE WARM FRONT SURGES THROUGH TONIGHT...A
PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST AND SHOULD RAPIDLY
TAPER PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR THIS MORNING ISC
UPDATED...ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS AND
RAIN. MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES IN HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. INCREASED QPF SLIGHTLY TOWARDS HPC IN THE SOUTH...WITH
HIGHEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE EASTERN FACING SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
NOT EXPECTED ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS WITH RAIN RATES. MORE CHANGES
LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN.


AS OF 330 AM EST SUNDAY...

EVERYTHING SEEMS TO BE UNFOLDING AS ADVERTISED AS PCPN TO OUR SOUTH
IS ADVANCING TOWARD THE REGION AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT ATTACHED TO A
DEVELOPING LOW IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DRY AIR WILL HINDER PROGRESS
OF PCPN AS IT ENTERS THE REGION...BUT EXPECT IT WILL PASS THE VA/NC
LINE DURING THE MORNING AND OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. PCPN WILL BE BIASED WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT AND LESSER AMOUNTS AS YOU GO FURTHER WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

THE BIGGEST CONCERN THROUGH THE NEAR TERM IS THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL SELY
JET WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PEAK AOA 70KTS JUST TO OUR WEST ROUGHLY FROM 5PM TO
1AM. THE COUNTIES OF TAZEWELL AND SMYTH IN VA AND MERCER IS WV ARE KNOWN TO
BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO STRONG WINDS TRANSLATING TO LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THIS TYPE
OF SITUATION SO WILL RAISE A WIND ADVSY FOR THESE LOCATIONS IN ANTICIPATION
OF GUSTS AROUND 50MPH. HOWEVER...EXPECTING WINDS NOT TOO FAR BELOW CRITERIA
FOR OTHER AREAS OF THE WESTERN SLOPES SO ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED IF
THE SITUATION UNFOLDS WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS.

ONCE THE WARM FRONT SURGES THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT WILL
WORK IN FROM THE WEST AND SHOULD RAPIDLY TAPER PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EST SUNDAY...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL 500H TROUGH WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
CONUS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH COOLER AIR REMAINING WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY...THEN ADVECTING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES A DRY COLD FRONT OVER AND EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE PERIOD. BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL THEN SET-UP
ALONG THE EAST COAST AND WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF STREAM TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE
NORTHEAST NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY.

IN THE WAKE OF SUNDAY NIGHTS WARM FRONTAL RAIN...FORECAST AREA
WILL BE IN THE DRY SLOT...WARM SECTOR SOUTHERLY WINDS PROVIDING A
BREEZY BUT MILD DAY MONDAY. 1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES OF
565-570DM AND 850H TEMPS OF +10 DEG C SUPPORT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S MONDAY...POSSIBLY TESTING THE LOWER
70S ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VA AND THE PIEDMONT. UNTIL SURFACE FRONT
CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE DAY...FORECAST AREA SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR/DRY SLOT WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THICKNESSES DROP BEHIND PASSING COLD
FRONT. ASIDE FOR SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SO BIGGEST CHANGE WILL BE A
SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION FROM SOUTH TO WEST...850 TEMPS TAKING
ABOUT A 10 DEGREE TUMBLE. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL RETURN TO
NOVEMBER NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE MU40S MTNS TO LM50S SOUTHSIDE
VA AND NC PIEDMONT.

WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL ENSURE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT VCNTY OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. TRACK/STRENGTH
OF THIS FEATURE WILL DEPEND ON OVERALL RESPONSE TO DYNAMIC FORCING
FROM SHORT WAVE ENERGY ARRIVING VIA THE UPPER LEVEL TROF...MODELS
TRENDING STRONGER AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THIS FEATURE WITH TIME.
AT THE VERY LEAST CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. QUESTIONS IS WHETHER THE MOISTURE WILL BECOME DEEP
ENOUGH THIS FAR WEST FROM THE COAST FOR PRECIPITATION. ATTM IT
APPEAR GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR RAIN TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 29 LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. IF PRECIPITATION
EXTENDS ALL THE WAY TO THE BLUE RIDGE...TEMPERATURES MAY BE COLD
ENOUGH ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM TO HAVE SNOW OR A RAIN
SNOW MIX. UNTIL A BETTER FIX ON STORM TRACK CAN BE
ESTABLISHED...QPF WILL REMAIN IN QUESTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EST SATURDAY...

TWO DISTINCT SYSTEMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR BRING SOME PRECIPITATION
TO PARTS OF THE AREA DURING THIS SEGMENT OF THE FORECAST. THE FIRST
ITEM OF INTEREST IS A LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG A
BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT WILL BE POSITIONED ALONG THE COAST DURING THE
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE
STILL INCONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER...AND WITH THEIR OWN PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS REGARDING THE TIMING...TRACK AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS FEATURE. YESTERDAY...THE ECWMF WAS THE ONLY OPERATIONAL
MODEL RUN THAT HINTED AT PRECIPITATION SKIRTING THE EASTERN EXTENT
OF THE FORECAST AREA. TODAY...ITS SOLUTIONS IS MORE ROBUST ON THIS
SCENARIO WITH PRECIPITATION NOW THE WHOLE WAY WEST TO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. TODAY...THE GFS SOLUTION IS ONLY SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST AS
COMPARED TO THE ECWMF FROM YESTERDAY...BUT STILL...HAS ALL BUT OUR
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES WITH AT LEAST 0.01 PRECIP. THE
CANADIAN SOLUTION KEEPS THE SYSTEM FARTHER OFF THE COAST WITH NOT A
DROP OF PRECIPITATION REACHING THE FORECAST AREA. OUR FORECAST FROM
YESTERDAY REFLECTED A MODEL BLEND CONSENSUS THAT WAS MORE IN LINE
WITH THE WETTER ECWMF SOLUTION. GIVEN BOTH THE GFS AND ECWMF ARE
WETTER FOR THE REGION...AND THE MODEL BLEND CONSENSUS IS ALSO WETTER
ACROSS THE REGION...HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT IN THE FORECAST.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO REFLECT 50
PERCENT IN THE EAST...WITH 20 TO 25 PERCENT IN THE WEST. SURFACE AND
LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MAINLY A SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW
FORECAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY...WITH PRIMARILY RAIN
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR ARRIVING ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR MORE LIGHT
SNOW...BUT WITH THE SYSTEM EXITING...MUCH LESS COVERAGE.

OUT NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT ZIPS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION
DURING THE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECWMF SOLUTIONS HAVE CHANGED COMPARED TO THEIR -24 HOUR
COUNTERPARTS. PRIOR...MODEL SOLUTIONS WERE HINTING AT A MORE
PROLONGED CLOSED LOW STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
WITH A MORE PROFOUND SHOT OF COLDER AIR IN ITS WAKE. THE LATEST
SOLUTIONS OFFER A MORE GLANCING BLOW OF ENERGY ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH THE COLDER AIR NOT HAVING AS MUCH CHANCE TO MAKE THE
TURN SOUTH PRIOR TO ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE
OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WHILE THE FORECAST WILL STILL OFFER SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL BE A BIT MILDER THAN WHAT AS OFFERED IN THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 800 AM EST SUNDAY...

MODELS IN AGREEMENT IN HANDLING OF UPCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM. STILL
ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH NOON EST TODAY BEFORE AIRMASS
SATURATES RESULTING IN RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH SUB VFR CIGS/VSBYS.
WARM FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL LIFT NORTH TODAY. RADAR
IS ALREADY INDICATING BLOSSOMING AREA OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES...MOVEMENT IS TO THE NORTHEAST. WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TO THE GULF COAST ARE IFR AND THESE SORT OF
CONDITIONS ARE MOVING NORTHEAST AND WILL OVERSPREAD THE VIRGINIAS
THIS AFTERNOON.

THROUGHOUT THE DAY CLOUD BASES WILL LOWER WITH MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING AT ALL RNK TERMINAL FORECAST POINTS. ONSET OF RAIN WILL
BEGIN BETWEEN NOON-4PM AND WILL THEN RESULT IN RAPID DETERIATION
OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO IFR BY SUNSET WITH CONTINUATION OF LOW
CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

EXPECT PERIODS OF MDT AND HEAVY RAIN FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. CONTINUING TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR
LOW LVL WIND SHEAR AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO AOA 60KTS BY
SUNSET. WILL NOT MENTION IN THIS PACKAGE BUT MAY INCLUDE WITH THE
18Z TAF ISSUANCE IF NEEDED.


EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR DURING MONDAY OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A
DRY SLOT DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE EXITING FRONT FROM SUNDAY AND THE
NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. MONDAY INTO TUESDAY LOOK TO FEATURE
QUITE A BIT OF WIND. NW FLOW INTO MAY KEEP SUB VFR CIGS INTO BLF
AND POSSIBLE LWB...WITH VFR TO THE EAST. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY
BRING WINTRY PRECIP TO THE AREA ALONG WITH SUB VFR AT ALL SITES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 215 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WILL BE OUT
OF SERVICE UNTIL PARTS ARRIVE TO REPLACE THE SENSOR. UNTIL THEN
THE VISIBILITY WILL ONLY BE REPORTED WHEN THE CONTROL TOWER IS
STAFFED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     VAZ007-009.
NC...NONE.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     WVZ042.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...KK/MBS
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...PM
EQUIPMENT...RAB



000
FXUS61 KLWX 231507
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1007 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT OFFSHORE.
A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE INTENSIFYING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC MONDAY EVENING.
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

THE AREA OF HIGH PRES OFF NERN N CAROLINA HAS DONE A VALIANT JOB
OF HOLDING THE AREA OF RA AT BAY AS IT ATTEMPTS TO PROGRESS N.
BUT THE HIGH WL BE MOVG OUT TO SEA...AND MID ATLC CAN EXPECT TO
SEE INCRSG CLDS THIS AFTN. A FAIRLY COMFORTABLE LATE NOV AFTN -
HIGHS XPCTD TO REACH THE M50S OVR MUCH OF THE AREA.

IT IS INTERESTING TO LOOK AT THE PWATS FM THE 12Z IAD SNDGS OVR
THE PAST 3 DAYS: FRI 0.11" SAT 0.17" SUN 0.57". AFTR THE COLD MRNG
FRI 24 HR TEMP CHGS OF THE ATOMOSPHERE HV SHOWN LARGE INCREASES
THE PAST 2 MRNGS.

THERE ARE TWO RGNS OF S/WV ENERGY IN THE SRN STREAM... ONE MVG
ONSHORE INVOF NWRN FL AND A HEALTHY VORT EMERGING INTO THE GLFMEX
FM CSTL TX. AS THESE S/WVS LIFT/DIG...H5 FLOW PTTN WL BECOME MORE
AMPLIFIED. THAT WL ALLOW A WMFNT TO APPRCH THE CWFA TDA.

FOR THE FIRST PD...AM CONFINING LKLY POPS TO SWRN CWFA...GNLY SHD
SWD. GFS/ECMWF HV A BETTER HANDLE THAN NAM ON EVOLUTION... AS
EVIDENCED BY COOL BIAS IN YDA FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...

WMFNT WL LIFT ACRS CWFA TNGT...AIDED BY 60-70 KT LLJ BRINGING PWAT
VALUES UP TO ARND 1.5 IN. THUS...CAT POPS AREAWIDE FOR MOST OF THE
NGT...REACHING METRO BALT BY MID EVNG AND ENDING IN THE MTNS
PRE-DAWN. AM XPCTG A PD OF MDT RAFL IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS
TIMEFRAME...SPCLY FOR THE BLURDG EWD...WHICH WL HV THE ASSISTANCE OF
THE RDG LINE FOR ENHANCED LIFT. STORM TTL QPF BTWN 0.50-1.00 INCH...
BUT LOCALLY HIER CERTAINLY PSBL. CANT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
EITHER GIVEN SHEAR AND MODEST INSTBY /BEST LI SUBZERO SRN MD
06-09Z/. HV CONFINED SCHC SE OF I-95 FOR JUST A CPL HRS AFTR
MIDNGT.

THE WNDS WL CAUSE ANOTHER ISSUE FOR THE HILLS...AS THE JET MAY BE
DOWN AS LOW AS 1500-2000 FT. HWVR...MIXING SHUD BE RATHER POOR.
CONFIDENCE IN POSITION/HGT/STRENGTH FOR THE JET PRECLUDE AN ADVY
ATTM...HWVR THE THREAT ADEQUATE ENUF TO JUSTIFY INCLUSION IN HWO.

THE WMFNT SHUD LIFT N OF CWFA BY DAYBREAK...TAKING ANY PCPN ACRS THE
DELMARVA. HV KEPT A CHC OF PCPN INTO MID-MRNG TO ACCT FOR ANY TIMING
DIFFS. OTRW...THERE/S NOT A LOT OF FORCING FOR SVRL HRS TIL THE
ATTENDENT CDFNT ARRIVES. THEREFORE...HV WHITTLED OUT A BREEZY BUT
DRY PD DURING THE MIDDAY. EVEN WHEN THE CDFNT DOES MAKE IT HERE
/LATE DAY/...THERES BAROCLINICITY BUT VIRTUALLY NO ULVL FORCING. AM
KEEPING ACCOMPANYING POPS IN THE 20-30 PCT RANGE.

H8 TEMPS PEAK ARND 14C AT 12Z MON MRNG. THEREFORE...WUDNT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE MIN-T BE LESS THAN DIURNAL. HV TAKEN THE WARMER END
OF MOS TO COMPOSE MIN-T GRID...MID 40S TO LWR 50S. HV SIDED
SIMILARLY WARM FOR MAXT MON. TEMPS 70+ SHUD PREVAIL E OF THE BLURDG
MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

A COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY SWING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...
USHERING IN A DRYING WEST WIND...BUT STILL SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS...
PROBABLY MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN GIVEN THE WARM STARTING
CONDITIONS. IF THE UPSLOPE OPPORTUNITY LINGERS LATER INTO THE
NIGHT...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

DESPITE A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT REBOUND MUCH ON
TUESDAY...REACHING JUST THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S. THE ALLEGHENY FRONT
REMAINS IN THE 30S ALL DAY DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...EVERY
DAY AFTER TUESDAY THIS WEEK WILL BE EVEN COLDER.

THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL GET HELD UP
IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY A STRONG UPPER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SFC
HIGH. MODELS THEN INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
FRONT AS UPPER ENERGY DIGS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH.

FROM THERE...UNCERTAINTY RAPIDLY INCREASES. DEPENDING ON HOW
CLOSE THE LOW IS TO THE COAST...PART OR ALL OF THE AREA WILL SEE
PRECIPITATION SPREAD IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AND OF COURSE...SFC TEMPS ARE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING
PART OF THE TIME...AND POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS ALOFT RUN A WIDE RANGE.
THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES ON TOP OF ALL OF THAT TOO. WPC
NOTES...AS DO WE...THAT THE DIFFERENCES HAVE A LINK TO AN UPSTREAM
CLIPPER SYSTEM AND HOW IT PLAYS INTO THE MOTION/EVOLUTION OF THE
COASTAL STORM. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT ALL SOLUTIONS ARE STILL ON
THE TABLE...FROM NOT MUCH OF ANYTHING TO ACCUMULATING SNOW. THE
CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GENERIC RAIN-OR-SNOW MENTION BUT WITH
INCREASED POPS. LATER TODAY...OUR PROBABILISTIC SNOW FORECASTS
WILL GO THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME...SO WE WILL AT LEAST HAVE A
GOALPOST AND PROBABILISTIC REFERENCES OF CERTAINTY THEN.

THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY PULL AWAY...LEAVING A SMALL CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WESTERLIES BEHIND THE
SYSTEM WILL FAVOR UPSLOPE SNOW ON THE ALLEGHENY FRONT FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY...BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTIES KEEP
THINGS TRICKY ELSEWHERE. IF UPPER ENERGY DIGS FURTHER SOUTH...A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS /PROBABLY RAIN GIVEN A BIT OF A WARMUP/ WOULD BE
POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE WITH THE CLIPPER PASSAGE.

AFTER THAT...HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS IN AND THINGS ARE
QUIET...BUT COLD...FOR THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE HINTS AT YET ANOTHER CLIPPER FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY. FOR NOW...I DID NOT PUT ANY PRECIP EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT...BUT I DID BRING IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW OUT WEST.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S AND 40S...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

VFR CONDS ACRS TERMINALS TDA. PCPN /LGT-MDT RA/ SHUD ENVELOP AREA BY
LT AFTN/EVE PUSH...PROGRESSING FM SW TO NE-- 21-23Z CHO TO 02-04Z
BWI/MTN. FLGT CONDS SHUD RAPIDLY DECLINE THRU MVFR TO IFR. XPCT IFR
CONDS OVNGT INTO THE BGNG OF MON MRNG PUSH...BEFORE GRDL IMPRVMNT
COMES. VFR SHUD RTN BY NOON MON.

WNDS WL ALSO BE A CONCERN...AS A 60-70 KT LOW LVL JET WL RESIDE AS
LOW AS 2K FT. THESE CONDS SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER LLWS MENTION FOR ALL
TAFS ELY MON MRNG. THINK SHEAR SHUD LESSEN BY SUNRISE MON. HWVR...
15-20 KT SUSTAINED SSWLY WNDS WL REMAIN THRU MOST OF DAY MON BEFORE
VEERING LT IN THE DAY.

WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND SHIFT FROM WESTERLY TO NORTHERLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO MOVE UP/OFF THE COAST ON
WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE IT IS...WINDS COULD STRENGTHEN.
GOOD CHANCE OF -RA AND/OR -SN WEDNESDAY. IF SNOW FALLS...LOW
CIGS/VSBY WOULD RESULT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY THURSDAY TO VFR.

&&

.MARINE...

NO PROBS ON WATERS ATTM. THE P-GRAD WL INCREASE SUN AFTN AS A
WMFNT APPROACHES. HV EXPANDED SCA FOR THE EVNG HRS TO INCL MOST OF
THE BAY. A 60-70 LLJ WL PASS OVER WATERS LT AT NGT. HWVR MIXING WL
BE POOR...ASSISTED BY 50+ DEGF AIR TEMPS OVER WATER TEMPS IN THE
LWR- MID 40S. HV CAPPED WINDS AT 30 KT...HOLDING OFF GLW MENTION.
DAYSHIFT WL BE GIVING THIS MORE ATTN...AS THERE WL BE A LOT OF WND
NOT FAR OFF THE WATERS EDGE.

THE JET...AND THE WMFNT...WL PASS N OF THE WATERS MON MRNG BUT WNDS
WL INCR AGN MON AFTN AS THE CDFNT APPROACHES. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
LULL /RELATIVELY SPEAKING/...BUT THE GRADIENT WL SUPPORT 20-25 KT
WINDS MON AFTN. HV XTNDD SCA FOR ALL WATERS INTO MON.

LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING
ON TRACK OF LOW UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...SOME GUSTS TO SCA LEVEL
ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER MARYLAND BAY...ON WEDNESDAY.
MORE SCA-LEVEL GUSTS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BEHIND A
CLIPPER SYSTEM.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WINDS ON THE MID CHESAPEAKE BAY WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 MPH BY SUN
NIGHT. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE TEMP CONTRAST BETWEEN THE AIR AND
WATER...MUCH BETTER WINDS WILL BE CONFINED ALOFT. EVEN THE TYPICALLY
AGGRESSIVE CBOFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THERE WL BE NO WATER LVL
RISE WITH TIDES TODAY OR TONIGHT. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OF
COURSE...BUT EVEN IF THERE WERE MODEL ERRORS STILL DO NOT ANTICIPATE
ANY ISSUES.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ531>534-536-537-539>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ530-535-538.

&&

$$
UPDATE..WOODY!
PRVS...HTS/JCE









000
FXUS61 KLWX 231507
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1007 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT OFFSHORE.
A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE INTENSIFYING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC MONDAY EVENING.
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

THE AREA OF HIGH PRES OFF NERN N CAROLINA HAS DONE A VALIANT JOB
OF HOLDING THE AREA OF RA AT BAY AS IT ATTEMPTS TO PROGRESS N.
BUT THE HIGH WL BE MOVG OUT TO SEA...AND MID ATLC CAN EXPECT TO
SEE INCRSG CLDS THIS AFTN. A FAIRLY COMFORTABLE LATE NOV AFTN -
HIGHS XPCTD TO REACH THE M50S OVR MUCH OF THE AREA.

IT IS INTERESTING TO LOOK AT THE PWATS FM THE 12Z IAD SNDGS OVR
THE PAST 3 DAYS: FRI 0.11" SAT 0.17" SUN 0.57". AFTR THE COLD MRNG
FRI 24 HR TEMP CHGS OF THE ATOMOSPHERE HV SHOWN LARGE INCREASES
THE PAST 2 MRNGS.

THERE ARE TWO RGNS OF S/WV ENERGY IN THE SRN STREAM... ONE MVG
ONSHORE INVOF NWRN FL AND A HEALTHY VORT EMERGING INTO THE GLFMEX
FM CSTL TX. AS THESE S/WVS LIFT/DIG...H5 FLOW PTTN WL BECOME MORE
AMPLIFIED. THAT WL ALLOW A WMFNT TO APPRCH THE CWFA TDA.

FOR THE FIRST PD...AM CONFINING LKLY POPS TO SWRN CWFA...GNLY SHD
SWD. GFS/ECMWF HV A BETTER HANDLE THAN NAM ON EVOLUTION... AS
EVIDENCED BY COOL BIAS IN YDA FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...

WMFNT WL LIFT ACRS CWFA TNGT...AIDED BY 60-70 KT LLJ BRINGING PWAT
VALUES UP TO ARND 1.5 IN. THUS...CAT POPS AREAWIDE FOR MOST OF THE
NGT...REACHING METRO BALT BY MID EVNG AND ENDING IN THE MTNS
PRE-DAWN. AM XPCTG A PD OF MDT RAFL IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS
TIMEFRAME...SPCLY FOR THE BLURDG EWD...WHICH WL HV THE ASSISTANCE OF
THE RDG LINE FOR ENHANCED LIFT. STORM TTL QPF BTWN 0.50-1.00 INCH...
BUT LOCALLY HIER CERTAINLY PSBL. CANT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
EITHER GIVEN SHEAR AND MODEST INSTBY /BEST LI SUBZERO SRN MD
06-09Z/. HV CONFINED SCHC SE OF I-95 FOR JUST A CPL HRS AFTR
MIDNGT.

THE WNDS WL CAUSE ANOTHER ISSUE FOR THE HILLS...AS THE JET MAY BE
DOWN AS LOW AS 1500-2000 FT. HWVR...MIXING SHUD BE RATHER POOR.
CONFIDENCE IN POSITION/HGT/STRENGTH FOR THE JET PRECLUDE AN ADVY
ATTM...HWVR THE THREAT ADEQUATE ENUF TO JUSTIFY INCLUSION IN HWO.

THE WMFNT SHUD LIFT N OF CWFA BY DAYBREAK...TAKING ANY PCPN ACRS THE
DELMARVA. HV KEPT A CHC OF PCPN INTO MID-MRNG TO ACCT FOR ANY TIMING
DIFFS. OTRW...THERE/S NOT A LOT OF FORCING FOR SVRL HRS TIL THE
ATTENDENT CDFNT ARRIVES. THEREFORE...HV WHITTLED OUT A BREEZY BUT
DRY PD DURING THE MIDDAY. EVEN WHEN THE CDFNT DOES MAKE IT HERE
/LATE DAY/...THERES BAROCLINICITY BUT VIRTUALLY NO ULVL FORCING. AM
KEEPING ACCOMPANYING POPS IN THE 20-30 PCT RANGE.

H8 TEMPS PEAK ARND 14C AT 12Z MON MRNG. THEREFORE...WUDNT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE MIN-T BE LESS THAN DIURNAL. HV TAKEN THE WARMER END
OF MOS TO COMPOSE MIN-T GRID...MID 40S TO LWR 50S. HV SIDED
SIMILARLY WARM FOR MAXT MON. TEMPS 70+ SHUD PREVAIL E OF THE BLURDG
MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

A COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY SWING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...
USHERING IN A DRYING WEST WIND...BUT STILL SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS...
PROBABLY MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN GIVEN THE WARM STARTING
CONDITIONS. IF THE UPSLOPE OPPORTUNITY LINGERS LATER INTO THE
NIGHT...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

DESPITE A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT REBOUND MUCH ON
TUESDAY...REACHING JUST THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S. THE ALLEGHENY FRONT
REMAINS IN THE 30S ALL DAY DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...EVERY
DAY AFTER TUESDAY THIS WEEK WILL BE EVEN COLDER.

THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL GET HELD UP
IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY A STRONG UPPER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SFC
HIGH. MODELS THEN INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
FRONT AS UPPER ENERGY DIGS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH.

FROM THERE...UNCERTAINTY RAPIDLY INCREASES. DEPENDING ON HOW
CLOSE THE LOW IS TO THE COAST...PART OR ALL OF THE AREA WILL SEE
PRECIPITATION SPREAD IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AND OF COURSE...SFC TEMPS ARE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING
PART OF THE TIME...AND POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS ALOFT RUN A WIDE RANGE.
THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES ON TOP OF ALL OF THAT TOO. WPC
NOTES...AS DO WE...THAT THE DIFFERENCES HAVE A LINK TO AN UPSTREAM
CLIPPER SYSTEM AND HOW IT PLAYS INTO THE MOTION/EVOLUTION OF THE
COASTAL STORM. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT ALL SOLUTIONS ARE STILL ON
THE TABLE...FROM NOT MUCH OF ANYTHING TO ACCUMULATING SNOW. THE
CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GENERIC RAIN-OR-SNOW MENTION BUT WITH
INCREASED POPS. LATER TODAY...OUR PROBABILISTIC SNOW FORECASTS
WILL GO THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME...SO WE WILL AT LEAST HAVE A
GOALPOST AND PROBABILISTIC REFERENCES OF CERTAINTY THEN.

THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY PULL AWAY...LEAVING A SMALL CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WESTERLIES BEHIND THE
SYSTEM WILL FAVOR UPSLOPE SNOW ON THE ALLEGHENY FRONT FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY...BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTIES KEEP
THINGS TRICKY ELSEWHERE. IF UPPER ENERGY DIGS FURTHER SOUTH...A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS /PROBABLY RAIN GIVEN A BIT OF A WARMUP/ WOULD BE
POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE WITH THE CLIPPER PASSAGE.

AFTER THAT...HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS IN AND THINGS ARE
QUIET...BUT COLD...FOR THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE HINTS AT YET ANOTHER CLIPPER FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY. FOR NOW...I DID NOT PUT ANY PRECIP EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT...BUT I DID BRING IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW OUT WEST.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S AND 40S...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

VFR CONDS ACRS TERMINALS TDA. PCPN /LGT-MDT RA/ SHUD ENVELOP AREA BY
LT AFTN/EVE PUSH...PROGRESSING FM SW TO NE-- 21-23Z CHO TO 02-04Z
BWI/MTN. FLGT CONDS SHUD RAPIDLY DECLINE THRU MVFR TO IFR. XPCT IFR
CONDS OVNGT INTO THE BGNG OF MON MRNG PUSH...BEFORE GRDL IMPRVMNT
COMES. VFR SHUD RTN BY NOON MON.

WNDS WL ALSO BE A CONCERN...AS A 60-70 KT LOW LVL JET WL RESIDE AS
LOW AS 2K FT. THESE CONDS SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER LLWS MENTION FOR ALL
TAFS ELY MON MRNG. THINK SHEAR SHUD LESSEN BY SUNRISE MON. HWVR...
15-20 KT SUSTAINED SSWLY WNDS WL REMAIN THRU MOST OF DAY MON BEFORE
VEERING LT IN THE DAY.

WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND SHIFT FROM WESTERLY TO NORTHERLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO MOVE UP/OFF THE COAST ON
WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE IT IS...WINDS COULD STRENGTHEN.
GOOD CHANCE OF -RA AND/OR -SN WEDNESDAY. IF SNOW FALLS...LOW
CIGS/VSBY WOULD RESULT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY THURSDAY TO VFR.

&&

.MARINE...

NO PROBS ON WATERS ATTM. THE P-GRAD WL INCREASE SUN AFTN AS A
WMFNT APPROACHES. HV EXPANDED SCA FOR THE EVNG HRS TO INCL MOST OF
THE BAY. A 60-70 LLJ WL PASS OVER WATERS LT AT NGT. HWVR MIXING WL
BE POOR...ASSISTED BY 50+ DEGF AIR TEMPS OVER WATER TEMPS IN THE
LWR- MID 40S. HV CAPPED WINDS AT 30 KT...HOLDING OFF GLW MENTION.
DAYSHIFT WL BE GIVING THIS MORE ATTN...AS THERE WL BE A LOT OF WND
NOT FAR OFF THE WATERS EDGE.

THE JET...AND THE WMFNT...WL PASS N OF THE WATERS MON MRNG BUT WNDS
WL INCR AGN MON AFTN AS THE CDFNT APPROACHES. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
LULL /RELATIVELY SPEAKING/...BUT THE GRADIENT WL SUPPORT 20-25 KT
WINDS MON AFTN. HV XTNDD SCA FOR ALL WATERS INTO MON.

LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING
ON TRACK OF LOW UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...SOME GUSTS TO SCA LEVEL
ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER MARYLAND BAY...ON WEDNESDAY.
MORE SCA-LEVEL GUSTS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BEHIND A
CLIPPER SYSTEM.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WINDS ON THE MID CHESAPEAKE BAY WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 MPH BY SUN
NIGHT. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE TEMP CONTRAST BETWEEN THE AIR AND
WATER...MUCH BETTER WINDS WILL BE CONFINED ALOFT. EVEN THE TYPICALLY
AGGRESSIVE CBOFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THERE WL BE NO WATER LVL
RISE WITH TIDES TODAY OR TONIGHT. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OF
COURSE...BUT EVEN IF THERE WERE MODEL ERRORS STILL DO NOT ANTICIPATE
ANY ISSUES.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ531>534-536-537-539>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ530-535-538.

&&

$$
UPDATE..WOODY!
PRVS...HTS/JCE










000
FXUS61 KAKQ 231506
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1006 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE EAST
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HI PRES NOW OFF THE CST...WILL CONT TO SLO DRIFT E AWAY FM THE
CST THROUGH TDA. CLOUDS CONT TO THICKEN AND LWR FM THE SW AS GULF
COAST MOISTURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFT NE THROUGH THE SE
CONUS...AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. XPCG MUCH OF THE DAY TO BE DRY...BUT SOME RAIN
SHOULD ARRIVE IN FAR SW PORTIONS OF LATE IN THE DAY. WILL CONT W/
INCRSG POPS TO 50-60% POPS SW LATE IN THE DAY...W/ RIBBON OF
30-40% POP FROM THE NW PIEDMONT THROUGH NE NC. HI TEMPS RANGING FM
THE M50S NW TO L60S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WITH STRONG VERTICAL MOTION WILL CROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TNGT. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE (PWTRS INCRSG TO 1.5 TO
2 IN 00-06Z/24 PER 00Z/23 GFS) WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT DUE TO A
STRONG NEARLY 70KT LLJ. POPS FOR RAIN DURING THE 12HR PERIOD TNGT
WILL CONT AT 100%. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
COASTAL NE NC (NOT READY TO ADD TO OTHER AREAS - ESP ERN VA/LWR SE
MD BUT WOULDN`T RULE IT OUT)...AND SPC HAS OUTLINED THAT AREA
(CSTL NE NC) IN SLGT CHC SVR. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
6HR PRESSURE FALLS OF -6MB TO -10MB GFS WILL RESULT IN
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF THE COAST.
GUSTS FROM THE SSE DIRECTION OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. LO
TEMPS TNGT SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 50S...WITH READINGS LIKELY TO
RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG FORCING AND SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE
SHOULD RESULT IN A ~6HR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
RAIN TNGT...WITH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS AVERAGING 0.5 TO 0.75 IN
N/CNTRL AND 1.00-1.25 IN NR THE CST (AND NE NC).

THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NNE OF THE REGION BY 12Z/25...W/ A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING TOWARD THE FAR WRN COUNTIES BY 00Z TUE. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE MON MORNING...WITH A GUSTY SW WIND
DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S (SEE THE
THE CLIMO SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS). WILL LIMIT ANY POPS TO FAR
ESE AREAS OF FA AS 00Z/23 NAM RMNS OUTLIER IN LINGERING MOISTURE
ACRS THOSE LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT AND TUE. PARTIAL
CLEARING IS XPCD INLAND...WITH PSBL CLOUDS LINGERING RIGHT ALG THE
COAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER TUE. HIGHS TUE
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO LOW 60S SE...AFTER MORNING
LOWS FROM THE MID 40S NW...TO LOW/MID 50S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z/23 RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF COMING MORE INTO LINE WRT PTNTL
LO PRES DEVELOPING ALG STALLED FNTL BNDRY NR THE SE CONUS CST LT
TUE/TUE NGT...THEN TRACKING NNE ALG THE CST WED INTO WED NGT. A
BUSY PD OF TRAVEL MIDWEEK INCRSLY LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY
RA...AND AS PTNTL CSTL STM WINDS DOWN (LT WED/WED NGT)...MDL TEMP
PROFILES SUGGEST PSBL RA ENDING AS WET SN INLAND. HAVE NUDGED POPS
UP TO 70-80% E PORTION W...40-60% INLAND ON WED.

PCPN/MOIST THEN MOVES E OF THE AREA AND OFF THE CST LATER WED
WED NGT...WITH POPS DIMINISHING FM W TO E. A MAINLY DRY FRONT
SWINGS ACRS THE AREA THU AFTN INTO EARLY FRI MORNG. HI PRES WILL
THEN BLD INTO AND OVR THE REGION FRI THRU SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE L40S W AND M/U40S E WED...IN THE U40S TO L50S THU...IN THE
M/U40S FRI...AND RANGE THRU THE 40S SAT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S TO LWR 40S WED MORNG...IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S THU AND
FRI MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S SAT MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR TO START OFF THE 12Z TAF PERIOD WITH HI PRES CENTERED OFFSHORE
AND A COMPLEX FRNTAL SYSTM APPROACHING FM THE W. CIGS WILL
DECREASE THRU THE DAY AS A WARM FRNT PUSHES NWRD THRU THE SE
STATES...WITH WINDS BCMG GUSTY OUT OF THE SE LATE IN THE DAY AS
WELL. CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE FM SW TO NE FM MID TO LATE
AFTN...AND AM EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO DROP TO IFR AS THE RAIN
OVERSPREADS THE REGION THRU THE NITETIME HRS. WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT
MAY BE PSBL (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST) MON MORNG AS THE SYSTM
DEEPENS OVR THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE PSBL OVR EXTREME
SE VA/NE NC. IMPROVING CONDITIONS INTO TUE AS WEAK HI PRES BLDS
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST UPDATED WITH AN UPGRADE TO GALE WARNING OVR THE OCEAN.
DESPITE WARM AIR OVR COOL WATER TEMPS...WITH A STRONG PRES
GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT AND WEAK LO PRES
DEVELOPMENT OVR NRN VA...AND LATEST NAM12 PROGGING 925 MB WINDS
~75 KT...THINK THAT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW HRS OF WINDS AOA
34 KT OVR THE OCEAN TNGT. SEAS WILL REACH 6-8 FT. GUSTS MAY COME
CLOSE TO GALE FORCE OVR THE BAY AS WELL (AT LEAST AT ELEVATED
SITES) WHERE STRONG SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. ALSO
MAINTAINED THE SCA HEADLINES FOR THE OTHER WTRS. THE GALE WARNING
ENDS LATE MON MORNING...BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED AS GUSTS COULD
CONTINUE IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE THRU THE AFTN HRS. THE SCA
HEADLINES ALL END DURING THE DAY MON AS WINDS DECREASE JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRNT WHICH CROSSES THE WTRS LATE MON NGT/TUE MORNG.
IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS THEN INTO TUE WITH HI PRES OVR THE
AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED MONDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

RIC 76 1979
ORF 78 1983
SBY 78 1931
ECG 77 1983

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ633-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632.
     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...ALB/TMG
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KRNK 231257
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
757 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD RAIN INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT...AND WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION
AND OTHER HIGH ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH TUESDAY...RETURNING TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL STORM TO
IMPACT PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EST SUNDAY...

EVERYTHING SEEMS TO BE UNFOLDING AS ADVERTISED AS PCPN TO OUR SOUTH
IS ADVANCING TOWARD THE REGION AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT ATTACHED TO A
DEVELOPING LOW IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DRY AIR WILL HINDER PROGRESS
OF PCPN AS IT ENTERS THE REGION...BUT EXPECT IT WILL PASS THE VA/NC
LINE DURING THE MORNING AND OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. PCPN WILL BE BIASED WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT AND LESSER AMOUNTS AS YOU GO FURTHER WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

THE BIGGEST CONCERN THROUGH THE NEAR TERM IS THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL SELY
JET WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PEAK AOA 70KTS JUST TO OUR WEST ROUGHLY FROM 5PM TO
1AM. THE COUNTIES OF TAZEWELL AND SMYTH IN VA AND MERCER IS WV ARE KNOWN TO
BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO STRONG WINDS TRANSLATING TO LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THIS TYPE
OF SITUATION SO WILL RAISE A WIND ADVSY FOR THESE LOCATIONS IN ANTICIPATION
OF GUSTS AROUND 50MPH. HOWEVER...EXPECTING WINDS NOT TOO FAR BELOW CRITERIA
FOR OTHER AREAS OF THE WESTERN SLOPES SO ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED IF
THE SITUATION UNFOLDS WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS.

ONCE THE WARM FRONT SURGES THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT WILL
WORK IN FROM THE WEST AND SHOULD RAPIDLY TAPER PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EST SUNDAY...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL 500H TROUGH WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
CONUS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH COOLER AIR REMAINING WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY...THEN ADVECTING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES A DRY COLD FRONT OVER AND EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE PERIOD. BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL THEN SET-UP
ALONG THE EAST COAST AND WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF STREAM TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE
NORTHEAST NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY.

IN THE WAKE OF SUNDAY NIGHTS WARM FRONTAL RAIN...FORECAST AREA
WILL BE IN THE DRY SLOT...WARM SECTOR SOUTHERLY WINDS PROVIDING A
BREEZY BUT MILD DAY MONDAY. 1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES OF
565-570DM AND 850H TEMPS OF +10 DEG C SUPPORT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S MONDAY...POSSIBLY TESTING THE LOWER
70S ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VA AND THE PIEDMONT. UNTIL SURFACE FRONT
CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE DAY...FORECAST AREA SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR/DRY SLOT WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THICKNESSES DROP BEHIND PASSING COLD
FRONT. ASIDE FOR SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SO BIGGEST CHANGE WILL BE A
SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION FROM SOUTH TO WEST...850 TEMPS TAKING
ABOUT A 10 DEGREE TUMBLE. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL RETURN TO
NOVEMBER NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE MU40S MTNS TO LM50S SOUTHSIDE
VA AND NC PIEDMONT.

WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL ENSURE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT VCNTY OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. TRACK/STRENGTH
OF THIS FEATURE WILL DEPEND ON OVERALL RESPONSE TO DYNAMIC FORCING
FROM SHORT WAVE ENERGY ARRIVING VIA THE UPPER LEVEL TROF...MODELS
TRENDING STRONGER AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THIS FEATURE WITH TIME.
AT THE VERY LEAST CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. QUESTIONS IS WHETHER THE MOISTURE WILL BECOME DEEP
ENOUGH THIS FAR WEST FROM THE COAST FOR PRECIPITATION. ATTM IT
APPEAR GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR RAIN TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 29 LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. IF PRECIPITATION
EXTENDS ALL THE WAY TO THE BLUE RIDGE...TEMPERATURES MAY BE COLD
ENOUGH ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM TO HAVE SNOW OR A RAIN
SNOW MIX. UNTIL A BETTER FIX ON STORM TRACK CAN BE
ESTABLISHED...QPF WILL REMAIN IN QUESTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EST SATURDAY...

TWO DISTINCT SYSTEMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR BRING SOME PRECIPITATION
TO PARTS OF THE AREA DURING THIS SEGMENT OF THE FORECAST. THE FIRST
ITEM OF INTEREST IS A LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG A
BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT WILL BE POSITIONED ALONG THE COAST DURING THE
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE
STILL INCONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER...AND WITH THEIR OWN PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS REGARDING THE TIMING...TRACK AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS FEATURE. YESTERDAY...THE ECWMF WAS THE ONLY OPERATIONAL
MODEL RUN THAT HINTED AT PRECIPITATION SKIRTING THE EASTERN EXTENT
OF THE FORECAST AREA. TODAY...ITS SOLUTIONS IS MORE ROBUST ON THIS
SCENARIO WITH PRECIPITATION NOW THE WHOLE WAY WEST TO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. TODAY...THE GFS SOLUTION IS ONLY SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST AS
COMPARED TO THE ECWMF FROM YESTERDAY...BUT STILL...HAS ALL BUT OUR
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES WITH AT LEAST 0.01 PRECIP. THE
CANADIAN SOLUTION KEEPS THE SYSTEM FARTHER OFF THE COAST WITH NOT A
DROP OF PRECIPITATION REACHING THE FORECAST AREA. OUR FORECAST FROM
YESTERDAY REFLECTED A MODEL BLEND CONSENSUS THAT WAS MORE IN LINE
WITH THE WETTER ECWMF SOLUTION. GIVEN BOTH THE GFS AND ECWMF ARE
WETTER FOR THE REGION...AND THE MODEL BLEND CONSENSUS IS ALSO WETTER
ACROSS THE REGION...HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT IN THE FORECAST.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO REFLECT 50
PERCENT IN THE EAST...WITH 20 TO 25 PERCENT IN THE WEST. SURFACE AND
LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MAINLY A SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW
FORECAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY...WITH PRIMARILY RAIN
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR ARRIVING ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR MORE LIGHT
SNOW...BUT WITH THE SYSTEM EXITING...MUCH LESS COVERAGE.

OUT NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT ZIPS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION
DURING THE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECWMF SOLUTIONS HAVE CHANGED COMPARED TO THEIR -24 HOUR
COUNTERPARTS. PRIOR...MODEL SOLUTIONS WERE HINTING AT A MORE
PROLONGED CLOSED LOW STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
WITH A MORE PROFOUND SHOT OF COLDER AIR IN ITS WAKE. THE LATEST
SOLUTIONS OFFER A MORE GLANCING BLOW OF ENERGY ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH THE COLDER AIR NOT HAVING AS MUCH CHANCE TO MAKE THE
TURN SOUTH PRIOR TO ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE
OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WHILE THE FORECAST WILL STILL OFFER SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL BE A BIT MILDER THAN WHAT AS OFFERED IN THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 800 AM EST SUNDAY...

MODELS IN AGREEMENT IN HANDLING OF UPCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM. STILL
ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH NOON EST TODAY BEFORE AIRMASS
SATURATES RESULTING IN RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH SUB VFR CIGS/VSBYS.
WARM FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL LIFT NORTH TODAY. RADAR
IS ALREADY INDICATING BLOSSOMING AREA OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES...MOVEMENT IS TO THE NORTHEAST. WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TO THE GULF COAST ARE IFR AND THESE SORT OF
CONDITIONS ARE MOVING NORTHEAST AND WILL OVERSPREAD THE VIRGINIAS
THIS AFTERNOON.

THROUGHOUT THE DAY CLOUD BASES WILL LOWER WITH MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING AT ALL RNK TERMINAL FORECAST POINTS. ONSET OF RAIN WILL
BEGIN BETWEEN NOON-4PM AND WILL THEN RESULT IN RAPID DETERIATION
OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO IFR BY SUNSET WITH CONTINUATION OF LOW
CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

EXPECT PERIODS OF MDT AND HEAVY RAIN FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. CONTINUING TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR
LOW LVL WIND SHEAR AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO AOA 60KTS BY
SUNSET. WILL NOT MENTION IN THIS PACKAGE BUT MAY INCLUDE WITH THE
18Z TAF ISSUANCE IF NEEDED.


EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR DURING MONDAY OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A
DRY SLOT DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE EXITING FRONT FROM SUNDAY AND THE
NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. MONDAY INTO TUESDAY LOOK TO FEATURE
QUITE A BIT OF WIND. NW FLOW INTO MAY KEEP SUB VFR CIGS INTO BLF
AND POSSIBLE LWB...WITH VFR TO THE EAST. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY
BRING WINTRY PRECIP TO THE AREA ALONG WITH SUB VFR AT ALL SITES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 215 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WILL BE OUT
OF SERVICE UNTIL PARTS ARRIVE TO REPLACE THE SENSOR. UNTIL THEN
THE VISIBILITY WILL ONLY BE REPORTED WHEN THE CONTROL TOWER IS
STAFFED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     VAZ007-009.
NC...NONE.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     WVZ042.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...PM
EQUIPMENT...RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 231257
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
757 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD RAIN INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT...AND WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION
AND OTHER HIGH ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH TUESDAY...RETURNING TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL STORM TO
IMPACT PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EST SUNDAY...

EVERYTHING SEEMS TO BE UNFOLDING AS ADVERTISED AS PCPN TO OUR SOUTH
IS ADVANCING TOWARD THE REGION AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT ATTACHED TO A
DEVELOPING LOW IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DRY AIR WILL HINDER PROGRESS
OF PCPN AS IT ENTERS THE REGION...BUT EXPECT IT WILL PASS THE VA/NC
LINE DURING THE MORNING AND OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. PCPN WILL BE BIASED WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT AND LESSER AMOUNTS AS YOU GO FURTHER WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

THE BIGGEST CONCERN THROUGH THE NEAR TERM IS THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL SELY
JET WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PEAK AOA 70KTS JUST TO OUR WEST ROUGHLY FROM 5PM TO
1AM. THE COUNTIES OF TAZEWELL AND SMYTH IN VA AND MERCER IS WV ARE KNOWN TO
BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO STRONG WINDS TRANSLATING TO LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THIS TYPE
OF SITUATION SO WILL RAISE A WIND ADVSY FOR THESE LOCATIONS IN ANTICIPATION
OF GUSTS AROUND 50MPH. HOWEVER...EXPECTING WINDS NOT TOO FAR BELOW CRITERIA
FOR OTHER AREAS OF THE WESTERN SLOPES SO ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED IF
THE SITUATION UNFOLDS WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS.

ONCE THE WARM FRONT SURGES THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT WILL
WORK IN FROM THE WEST AND SHOULD RAPIDLY TAPER PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EST SUNDAY...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL 500H TROUGH WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
CONUS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH COOLER AIR REMAINING WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY...THEN ADVECTING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES A DRY COLD FRONT OVER AND EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE PERIOD. BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL THEN SET-UP
ALONG THE EAST COAST AND WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF STREAM TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE
NORTHEAST NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY.

IN THE WAKE OF SUNDAY NIGHTS WARM FRONTAL RAIN...FORECAST AREA
WILL BE IN THE DRY SLOT...WARM SECTOR SOUTHERLY WINDS PROVIDING A
BREEZY BUT MILD DAY MONDAY. 1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES OF
565-570DM AND 850H TEMPS OF +10 DEG C SUPPORT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S MONDAY...POSSIBLY TESTING THE LOWER
70S ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VA AND THE PIEDMONT. UNTIL SURFACE FRONT
CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE DAY...FORECAST AREA SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR/DRY SLOT WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THICKNESSES DROP BEHIND PASSING COLD
FRONT. ASIDE FOR SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SO BIGGEST CHANGE WILL BE A
SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION FROM SOUTH TO WEST...850 TEMPS TAKING
ABOUT A 10 DEGREE TUMBLE. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL RETURN TO
NOVEMBER NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE MU40S MTNS TO LM50S SOUTHSIDE
VA AND NC PIEDMONT.

WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL ENSURE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT VCNTY OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. TRACK/STRENGTH
OF THIS FEATURE WILL DEPEND ON OVERALL RESPONSE TO DYNAMIC FORCING
FROM SHORT WAVE ENERGY ARRIVING VIA THE UPPER LEVEL TROF...MODELS
TRENDING STRONGER AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THIS FEATURE WITH TIME.
AT THE VERY LEAST CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. QUESTIONS IS WHETHER THE MOISTURE WILL BECOME DEEP
ENOUGH THIS FAR WEST FROM THE COAST FOR PRECIPITATION. ATTM IT
APPEAR GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR RAIN TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 29 LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. IF PRECIPITATION
EXTENDS ALL THE WAY TO THE BLUE RIDGE...TEMPERATURES MAY BE COLD
ENOUGH ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM TO HAVE SNOW OR A RAIN
SNOW MIX. UNTIL A BETTER FIX ON STORM TRACK CAN BE
ESTABLISHED...QPF WILL REMAIN IN QUESTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EST SATURDAY...

TWO DISTINCT SYSTEMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR BRING SOME PRECIPITATION
TO PARTS OF THE AREA DURING THIS SEGMENT OF THE FORECAST. THE FIRST
ITEM OF INTEREST IS A LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG A
BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT WILL BE POSITIONED ALONG THE COAST DURING THE
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE
STILL INCONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER...AND WITH THEIR OWN PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS REGARDING THE TIMING...TRACK AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS FEATURE. YESTERDAY...THE ECWMF WAS THE ONLY OPERATIONAL
MODEL RUN THAT HINTED AT PRECIPITATION SKIRTING THE EASTERN EXTENT
OF THE FORECAST AREA. TODAY...ITS SOLUTIONS IS MORE ROBUST ON THIS
SCENARIO WITH PRECIPITATION NOW THE WHOLE WAY WEST TO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. TODAY...THE GFS SOLUTION IS ONLY SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST AS
COMPARED TO THE ECWMF FROM YESTERDAY...BUT STILL...HAS ALL BUT OUR
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES WITH AT LEAST 0.01 PRECIP. THE
CANADIAN SOLUTION KEEPS THE SYSTEM FARTHER OFF THE COAST WITH NOT A
DROP OF PRECIPITATION REACHING THE FORECAST AREA. OUR FORECAST FROM
YESTERDAY REFLECTED A MODEL BLEND CONSENSUS THAT WAS MORE IN LINE
WITH THE WETTER ECWMF SOLUTION. GIVEN BOTH THE GFS AND ECWMF ARE
WETTER FOR THE REGION...AND THE MODEL BLEND CONSENSUS IS ALSO WETTER
ACROSS THE REGION...HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT IN THE FORECAST.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO REFLECT 50
PERCENT IN THE EAST...WITH 20 TO 25 PERCENT IN THE WEST. SURFACE AND
LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MAINLY A SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW
FORECAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY...WITH PRIMARILY RAIN
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR ARRIVING ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR MORE LIGHT
SNOW...BUT WITH THE SYSTEM EXITING...MUCH LESS COVERAGE.

OUT NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT ZIPS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION
DURING THE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECWMF SOLUTIONS HAVE CHANGED COMPARED TO THEIR -24 HOUR
COUNTERPARTS. PRIOR...MODEL SOLUTIONS WERE HINTING AT A MORE
PROLONGED CLOSED LOW STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
WITH A MORE PROFOUND SHOT OF COLDER AIR IN ITS WAKE. THE LATEST
SOLUTIONS OFFER A MORE GLANCING BLOW OF ENERGY ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH THE COLDER AIR NOT HAVING AS MUCH CHANCE TO MAKE THE
TURN SOUTH PRIOR TO ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE
OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WHILE THE FORECAST WILL STILL OFFER SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL BE A BIT MILDER THAN WHAT AS OFFERED IN THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 800 AM EST SUNDAY...

MODELS IN AGREEMENT IN HANDLING OF UPCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM. STILL
ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH NOON EST TODAY BEFORE AIRMASS
SATURATES RESULTING IN RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH SUB VFR CIGS/VSBYS.
WARM FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL LIFT NORTH TODAY. RADAR
IS ALREADY INDICATING BLOSSOMING AREA OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES...MOVEMENT IS TO THE NORTHEAST. WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TO THE GULF COAST ARE IFR AND THESE SORT OF
CONDITIONS ARE MOVING NORTHEAST AND WILL OVERSPREAD THE VIRGINIAS
THIS AFTERNOON.

THROUGHOUT THE DAY CLOUD BASES WILL LOWER WITH MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING AT ALL RNK TERMINAL FORECAST POINTS. ONSET OF RAIN WILL
BEGIN BETWEEN NOON-4PM AND WILL THEN RESULT IN RAPID DETERIATION
OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO IFR BY SUNSET WITH CONTINUATION OF LOW
CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

EXPECT PERIODS OF MDT AND HEAVY RAIN FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. CONTINUING TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR
LOW LVL WIND SHEAR AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO AOA 60KTS BY
SUNSET. WILL NOT MENTION IN THIS PACKAGE BUT MAY INCLUDE WITH THE
18Z TAF ISSUANCE IF NEEDED.


EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR DURING MONDAY OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A
DRY SLOT DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE EXITING FRONT FROM SUNDAY AND THE
NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. MONDAY INTO TUESDAY LOOK TO FEATURE
QUITE A BIT OF WIND. NW FLOW INTO MAY KEEP SUB VFR CIGS INTO BLF
AND POSSIBLE LWB...WITH VFR TO THE EAST. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY
BRING WINTRY PRECIP TO THE AREA ALONG WITH SUB VFR AT ALL SITES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 215 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WILL BE OUT
OF SERVICE UNTIL PARTS ARRIVE TO REPLACE THE SENSOR. UNTIL THEN
THE VISIBILITY WILL ONLY BE REPORTED WHEN THE CONTROL TOWER IS
STAFFED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     VAZ007-009.
NC...NONE.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     WVZ042.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...PM
EQUIPMENT...RAB



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 231141
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
641 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE EAST
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HI PRES NOW OFF THE CST...WILL CONT TO SLO DRIFT E AWAY FM THE
CST THROUGH TDA. CLOUDS CONT TO INCRS...THICKEN...AND LWR FM THE
SW AS GULF COAST MOISTURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFT NE
THROUGH THE SE CONUS...AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. XPCG MUCH OF THE DAY TO BE DRY...BUT
SOME RAIN SHOULD ARRIVE IN FAR SW PORTIONS OF LATE IN THE DAY.
WILL CONT W/ INCRSG POPS TO 50-60% POPS SW LATE IN THE DAY...W/
RIBBON OF 30-40% POP FROM THE NW PIEDMONT THROUGH NE NC. HI TEMPS
RANGING FM THE M50S NW TO L60S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WITH STRONG VERTICAL MOTION WILL CROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TNGT. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE (PWTRS INCRSG TO 1.5 TO
2 IN 00-06Z/24 PER 00Z/23 GFS) WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT DUE TO A
STRONG NEARLY 70KT LLJ. POPS FOR RAIN DURING THE 12HR PERIOD TNGT
WILL CONT AT 100%. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
COASTAL NE NC (NOT READY TO ADD TO OTHER AREAS - ESP ERN VA/LWR SE
MD BUT WOULDN`T RULE IT OUT)...AND SPC HAS OUTLINED THAT AREA
(CSTL NE NC) IN SLGT CHC SVR. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
6HR PRESSURE FALLS OF -6MB TO -10MB GFS WILL RESULT IN
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF THE COAST.
GUSTS FROM THE SSE DIRECTION OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. LO
TEMPS TNGT SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 50S...WITH READINGS LIKELY TO
RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG FORCING AND SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE
SHOULD RESULT IN A ~6HR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
RAIN TNGT...WITH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS AVERAGING 0.5 TO 0.75 IN
N/CNTRL AND 1.00-1.25 IN NR THE CST (AND NE NC).

THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NNE OF THE REGION BY 12Z/25...W/ A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING TOWARD THE FAR WRN COUNTIES BY 00Z TUE. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE MON MORNING...WITH A GUSTY SW WIND
DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S (SEE THE
THE CLIMO SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS). WILL LIMIT ANY POPS TO FAR
ESE AREAS OF FA AS 00Z/23 NAM RMNS OUTLIER IN LINGERING MOISTURE
ACRS THOSE LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT AND TUE. PARTIAL
CLEARING IS XPCD INLAND...WITH PSBL CLOUDS LINGERING RIGHT ALG THE
COAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER TUE. HIGHS TUE
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO LOW 60S SE...AFTER MORNING
LOWS FROM THE MID 40S NW...TO LOW/MID 50S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z/23 RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF COMING MORE INTO LINE WRT PTNTL
LO PRES DEVELOPING ALG STALLED FNTL BNDRY NR THE SE CONUS CST LT
TUE/TUE NGT...THEN TRACKING NNE ALG THE CST WED INTO WED NGT. A
BUSY PD OF TRAVEL MIDWEEK INCRSLY LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY
RA...AND AS PTNTL CSTL STM WINDS DOWN (LT WED/WED NGT)...MDL TEMP
PROFILES SUGGEST PSBL RA ENDING AS WET SN INLAND. HAVE NUDGED POPS
UP TO 70-80% E PORTION W...40-60% INLAND ON WED.

PCPN/MOIST THEN MOVES E OF THE AREA AND OFF THE CST LATER WED
WED NGT...WITH POPS DIMINISHING FM W TO E. A MAINLY DRY FRONT
SWINGS ACRS THE AREA THU AFTN INTO EARLY FRI MORNG. HI PRES WILL
THEN BLD INTO AND OVR THE REGION FRI THRU SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE L40S W AND M/U40S E WED...IN THE U40S TO L50S THU...IN THE
M/U40S FRI...AND RANGE THRU THE 40S SAT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S TO LWR 40S WED MORNG...IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S THU AND
FRI MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S SAT MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR TO START OFF THE 12Z TAF PERIOD WITH HI PRES CENTERED OFFSHORE
AND A COMPLEX FRNTAL SYSTM APPROACHING FM THE W. CIGS WILL
DECREASE THRU THE DAY AS A WARM FRNT PUSHES NWRD THRU THE SE
STATES...WITH WINDS BCMG GUSTY OUT OF THE SE LATE IN THE DAY AS
WELL. CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE FM SW TO NE FM MID TO LATE
AFTN...AND AM EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO DROP TO IFR AS THE RAIN
OVERSPREADS THE REGION THRU THE NITETIME HRS. WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT
MAY BE PSBL (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST) MON MORNG AS THE SYSTM
DEEPENS OVR THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE PSBL OVR EXTREME
SE VA/NE NC. IMPROVING CONDITIONS INTO TUE AS WEAK HI PRES BLDS
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST UPDATED WITH AN UPGRADE TO GALE WARNING OVR THE OCEAN.
DESPITE WARM AIR OVR COOL WATER TEMPS...WITH A STRONG PRES
GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT AND WEAK LO PRES
DEVELOPMENT OVR NRN VA...AND LATEST NAM12 PROGGING 925 MB WINDS
~75 KT...THINK THAT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW HRS OF WINDS AOA
34 KT OVR THE OCEAN TNGT. SEAS WILL REACH 6-8 FT. GUSTS MAY COME
CLOSE TO GALE FORCE OVR THE BAY AS WELL (AT LEAST AT ELEVATED
SITES) WHERE STRONG SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. ALSO
MAINTAINED THE SCA HEADLINES FOR THE OTHER WTRS. THE GALE WARNING
ENDS LATE MON MORNING...BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED AS GUSTS COULD
CONTINUE IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE THRU THE AFTN HRS. THE SCA
HEADLINES ALL END DURING THE DAY MON AS WINDS DECREASE JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRNT WHICH CROSSES THE WTRS LATE MON NGT/TUE MORNG.
IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS THEN INTO TUE WITH HI PRES OVR THE
AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED MONDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

RIC 76 1979
ORF 78 1983
SBY 78 1931
ECG 77 1983

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ633-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632.
     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...ALB/TMG
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 231141
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
641 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE EAST
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HI PRES NOW OFF THE CST...WILL CONT TO SLO DRIFT E AWAY FM THE
CST THROUGH TDA. CLOUDS CONT TO INCRS...THICKEN...AND LWR FM THE
SW AS GULF COAST MOISTURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFT NE
THROUGH THE SE CONUS...AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. XPCG MUCH OF THE DAY TO BE DRY...BUT
SOME RAIN SHOULD ARRIVE IN FAR SW PORTIONS OF LATE IN THE DAY.
WILL CONT W/ INCRSG POPS TO 50-60% POPS SW LATE IN THE DAY...W/
RIBBON OF 30-40% POP FROM THE NW PIEDMONT THROUGH NE NC. HI TEMPS
RANGING FM THE M50S NW TO L60S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WITH STRONG VERTICAL MOTION WILL CROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TNGT. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE (PWTRS INCRSG TO 1.5 TO
2 IN 00-06Z/24 PER 00Z/23 GFS) WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT DUE TO A
STRONG NEARLY 70KT LLJ. POPS FOR RAIN DURING THE 12HR PERIOD TNGT
WILL CONT AT 100%. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
COASTAL NE NC (NOT READY TO ADD TO OTHER AREAS - ESP ERN VA/LWR SE
MD BUT WOULDN`T RULE IT OUT)...AND SPC HAS OUTLINED THAT AREA
(CSTL NE NC) IN SLGT CHC SVR. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
6HR PRESSURE FALLS OF -6MB TO -10MB GFS WILL RESULT IN
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF THE COAST.
GUSTS FROM THE SSE DIRECTION OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. LO
TEMPS TNGT SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 50S...WITH READINGS LIKELY TO
RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG FORCING AND SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE
SHOULD RESULT IN A ~6HR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
RAIN TNGT...WITH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS AVERAGING 0.5 TO 0.75 IN
N/CNTRL AND 1.00-1.25 IN NR THE CST (AND NE NC).

THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NNE OF THE REGION BY 12Z/25...W/ A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING TOWARD THE FAR WRN COUNTIES BY 00Z TUE. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE MON MORNING...WITH A GUSTY SW WIND
DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S (SEE THE
THE CLIMO SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS). WILL LIMIT ANY POPS TO FAR
ESE AREAS OF FA AS 00Z/23 NAM RMNS OUTLIER IN LINGERING MOISTURE
ACRS THOSE LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT AND TUE. PARTIAL
CLEARING IS XPCD INLAND...WITH PSBL CLOUDS LINGERING RIGHT ALG THE
COAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER TUE. HIGHS TUE
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO LOW 60S SE...AFTER MORNING
LOWS FROM THE MID 40S NW...TO LOW/MID 50S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z/23 RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF COMING MORE INTO LINE WRT PTNTL
LO PRES DEVELOPING ALG STALLED FNTL BNDRY NR THE SE CONUS CST LT
TUE/TUE NGT...THEN TRACKING NNE ALG THE CST WED INTO WED NGT. A
BUSY PD OF TRAVEL MIDWEEK INCRSLY LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY
RA...AND AS PTNTL CSTL STM WINDS DOWN (LT WED/WED NGT)...MDL TEMP
PROFILES SUGGEST PSBL RA ENDING AS WET SN INLAND. HAVE NUDGED POPS
UP TO 70-80% E PORTION W...40-60% INLAND ON WED.

PCPN/MOIST THEN MOVES E OF THE AREA AND OFF THE CST LATER WED
WED NGT...WITH POPS DIMINISHING FM W TO E. A MAINLY DRY FRONT
SWINGS ACRS THE AREA THU AFTN INTO EARLY FRI MORNG. HI PRES WILL
THEN BLD INTO AND OVR THE REGION FRI THRU SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE L40S W AND M/U40S E WED...IN THE U40S TO L50S THU...IN THE
M/U40S FRI...AND RANGE THRU THE 40S SAT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S TO LWR 40S WED MORNG...IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S THU AND
FRI MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S SAT MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR TO START OFF THE 12Z TAF PERIOD WITH HI PRES CENTERED OFFSHORE
AND A COMPLEX FRNTAL SYSTM APPROACHING FM THE W. CIGS WILL
DECREASE THRU THE DAY AS A WARM FRNT PUSHES NWRD THRU THE SE
STATES...WITH WINDS BCMG GUSTY OUT OF THE SE LATE IN THE DAY AS
WELL. CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE FM SW TO NE FM MID TO LATE
AFTN...AND AM EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO DROP TO IFR AS THE RAIN
OVERSPREADS THE REGION THRU THE NITETIME HRS. WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT
MAY BE PSBL (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST) MON MORNG AS THE SYSTM
DEEPENS OVR THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE PSBL OVR EXTREME
SE VA/NE NC. IMPROVING CONDITIONS INTO TUE AS WEAK HI PRES BLDS
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST UPDATED WITH AN UPGRADE TO GALE WARNING OVR THE OCEAN.
DESPITE WARM AIR OVR COOL WATER TEMPS...WITH A STRONG PRES
GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT AND WEAK LO PRES
DEVELOPMENT OVR NRN VA...AND LATEST NAM12 PROGGING 925 MB WINDS
~75 KT...THINK THAT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW HRS OF WINDS AOA
34 KT OVR THE OCEAN TNGT. SEAS WILL REACH 6-8 FT. GUSTS MAY COME
CLOSE TO GALE FORCE OVR THE BAY AS WELL (AT LEAST AT ELEVATED
SITES) WHERE STRONG SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. ALSO
MAINTAINED THE SCA HEADLINES FOR THE OTHER WTRS. THE GALE WARNING
ENDS LATE MON MORNING...BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED AS GUSTS COULD
CONTINUE IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE THRU THE AFTN HRS. THE SCA
HEADLINES ALL END DURING THE DAY MON AS WINDS DECREASE JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRNT WHICH CROSSES THE WTRS LATE MON NGT/TUE MORNG.
IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS THEN INTO TUE WITH HI PRES OVR THE
AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED MONDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

RIC 76 1979
ORF 78 1983
SBY 78 1931
ECG 77 1983

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ633-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632.
     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...ALB/TMG
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KRNK 230943
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
443 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD RAIN INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT...AND WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION
AND OTHER HIGH ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH TUESDAY...RETURNING TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL STORM TO
IMPACT PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EST SUNDAY...

EVERYTHING SEEMS TO BE UNFOLDING AS ADVERTISED AS PCPN TO OUR SOUTH
IS ADVANCING TOWARD THE REGION AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT ATTACHED TO A
DEVELOPING LOW IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DRY AIR WILL HINDER PROGRESS
OF PCPN AS IT ENTERS THE REGION...BUT EXPECT IT WILL PASS THE VA/NC
LINE DURING THE MORNING AND OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. PCPN WILL BE BIASED WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT AND LESSER AMOUNTS AS YOU GO FURTHER WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

THE BIGGEST CONCERN THROUGH THE NEAR TERM IS THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL SELY
JET WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PEAK AOA 70KTS JUST TO OUR WEST ROUGHLY FROM 5PM TO
1AM. THE COUNTIES OF TAZEWELL AND SMYTH IN VA AND MERCER IS WV ARE KNOWN TO
BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO STRONG WINDS TRANSLATING TO LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THIS TYPE
OF SITUATION SO WILL RAISE A WIND ADVSY FOR THESE LOCATIONS IN ANTICIPATION
OF GUSTS AROUND 50MPH. HOWEVER...EXPECTING WINDS NOT TOO FAR BELOW CRITERIA
FOR OTHER AREAS OF THE WESTERN SLOPES SO ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED IF
THE SITUATION UNFOLDS WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS.

ONCE THE WARM FRONT SURGES THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT WILL
WORK IN FROM THE WEST AND SHOULD RAPIDLY TAPER PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EST SUNDAY...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL 500H TROUGH WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
CONUS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH COOLER AIR REMAINING WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY...THEN ADVECTING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES A DRY COLD FRONT OVER AND EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE PERIOD. BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL THEN SET-UP
ALONG THE EAST COAST AND WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF STREAM TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE
NORTHEAST NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY.

IN THE WAKE OF SUNDAY NIGHTS WARM FRONTAL RAIN...FORECAST AREA
WILL BE IN THE DRY SLOT...WARM SECTOR SOUTHERLY WINDS PROVIDING A
BREEZY BUT MILD DAY MONDAY. 1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES OF
565-570DM AND 850H TEMPS OF +10 DEG C SUPPORT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S MONDAY...POSSIBLY TESTING THE LOWER
70S ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VA AND THE PIEDMONT. UNTIL SURFACE FRONT
CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE DAY...FORECAST AREA SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR/DRY SLOT WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THICKNESSES DROP BEHIND PASSING COLD
FRONT. ASIDE FOR SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SO BIGGEST CHANGE WILL BE A
SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION FROM SOUTH TO WEST...850 TEMPS TAKING
ABOUT A 10 DEGREE TUMBLE. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL RETURN TO
NOVEMBER NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE MU40S MTNS TO LM50S SOUTHSIDE
VA AND NC PIEDMONT.

WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL ENSURE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT VCNTY OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. TRACK/STRENGTH
OF THIS FEATURE WILL DEPEND ON OVERALL RESPONSE TO DYNAMIC FORCING
FROM SHORT WAVE ENERGY ARRIVING VIA THE UPPER LEVEL TROF...MODELS
TRENDING STRONGER AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THIS FEATURE WITH TIME.
AT THE VERY LEAST CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. QUESTIONS IS WHETHER THE MOISTURE WILL BECOME DEEP
ENOUGH THIS FAR WEST FROM THE COAST FOR PRECIPITATION. ATTM IT
APPEAR GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR RAIN TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 29 LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. IF PRECIPITATION
EXTENDS ALL THE WAY TO THE BLUE RIDGE...TEMPERATURES MAY BE COLD
ENOUGH ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM TO HAVE SNOW OR A RAIN
SNOW MIX. UNTIL A BETTER FIX ON STORM TRACK CAN BE
ESTABLISHED...QPF WILL REMAIN IN QUESTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EST SATURDAY...

TWO DISTINCT SYSTEMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR BRING SOME PRECIPITATION
TO PARTS OF THE AREA DURING THIS SEGMENT OF THE FORECAST. THE FIRST
ITEM OF INTEREST IS A LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG A
BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT WILL BE POSITIONED ALONG THE COAST DURING THE
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE
STILL INCONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER...AND WITH THEIR OWN PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS REGARDING THE TIMING...TRACK AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS FEATURE. YESTERDAY...THE ECWMF WAS THE ONLY OPERATIONAL
MODEL RUN THAT HINTED AT PRECIPITATION SKIRTING THE EASTERN EXTENT
OF THE FORECAST AREA. TODAY...ITS SOLUTIONS IS MORE ROBUST ON THIS
SCENARIO WITH PRECIPITATION NOW THE WHOLE WAY WEST TO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. TODAY...THE GFS SOLUTION IS ONLY SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST AS
COMPARED TO THE ECWMF FROM YESTERDAY...BUT STILL...HAS ALL BUT OUR
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES WITH AT LEAST 0.01 PRECIP. THE
CANADIAN SOLUTION KEEPS THE SYSTEM FARTHER OFF THE COAST WITH NOT A
DROP OF PRECIPITATION REACHING THE FORECAST AREA. OUR FORECAST FROM
YESTERDAY REFLECTED A MODEL BLEND CONSENSUS THAT WAS MORE IN LINE
WITH THE WETTER ECWMF SOLUTION. GIVEN BOTH THE GFS AND ECWMF ARE
WETTER FOR THE REGION...AND THE MODEL BLEND CONSENSUS IS ALSO WETTER
ACROSS THE REGION...HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT IN THE FORECAST.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO REFLECT 50
PERCENT IN THE EAST...WITH 20 TO 25 PERCENT IN THE WEST. SURFACE AND
LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MAINLY A SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW
FORECAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY...WITH PRIMARILY RAIN
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR ARRIVING ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR MORE LIGHT
SNOW...BUT WITH THE SYSTEM EXITING...MUCH LESS COVERAGE.

OUT NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT ZIPS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION
DURING THE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECWMF SOLUTIONS HAVE CHANGED COMPARED TO THEIR -24 HOUR
COUNTERPARTS. PRIOR...MODEL SOLUTIONS WERE HINTING AT A MORE
PROLONGED CLOSED LOW STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
WITH A MORE PROFOUND SHOT OF COLDER AIR IN ITS WAKE. THE LATEST
SOLUTIONS OFFER A MORE GLANCING BLOW OF ENERGY ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH THE COLDER AIR NOT HAVING AS MUCH CHANCE TO MAKE THE
TURN SOUTH PRIOR TO ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE
OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WHILE THE FORECAST WILL STILL OFFER SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL BE A BIT MILDER THAN WHAT AS OFFERED IN THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM EST SUNDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN HANDLING OF UPCOMING
SYSTEM. STILL ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE AIRMASS MOISTENS UP AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE MID MISS VALLEY BRING A WARM FRONT ACROSS BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON AT MOST SITES
WITH LIGHT RAIN FOLLOWING CLOSE BEHIND. EXPECT PERIODS OF MDT AND
HEAVY RAIN FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...
ALONG WITH TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS. CONTINUING TO MONITOR POTENTIAL
LOW LVL WIND SHEAR AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO AOA 60KTS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WILL NOT MENTION IN THIS PACKAGE BUT WILL INCLUDE WITH THE
12Z ISSUANCE IF NEEDED.

LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND
GUSTY SUNDAY. WINDS AT BLF MAY STAY UP A BIT TONIGHT AS
THE INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AND WARM FRONT START TO
BE FELT.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

RAIN AND WIND CONTINUE WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT.
A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR DURING MONDAY OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A
DRY SLOT DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE EXITING FRONT FROM SUNDAY AND THE
NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. MONDAY INTO TUESDAY LOOK TO FEATURE
QUITE A BIT OF WIND. NW FLOW INTO MAY KEEP SUB VFR CIGS INTO BLF
AND POSSIBLE LWB...WITH VFR TO THE EAST. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
WHICH MAY BRING WINTRY PRECIP TO THE AREA ALONG WITH SUB VFR AT
ALL SITES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 215 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WILL BE OUT
OF SERVICE UNTIL PARTS ARRIVE TO REPLACE THE SENSOR. UNTIL THEN
THE VISIBILITY WILL ONLY BE REPORTED WHEN THE CONTROL TOWER IS
STAFFED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     VAZ007-009.
NC...NONE.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     WVZ042.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...KK/MBS/WP
EQUIPMENT...RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 230943
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
443 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD RAIN INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT...AND WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION
AND OTHER HIGH ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH TUESDAY...RETURNING TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL STORM TO
IMPACT PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EST SUNDAY...

EVERYTHING SEEMS TO BE UNFOLDING AS ADVERTISED AS PCPN TO OUR SOUTH
IS ADVANCING TOWARD THE REGION AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT ATTACHED TO A
DEVELOPING LOW IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DRY AIR WILL HINDER PROGRESS
OF PCPN AS IT ENTERS THE REGION...BUT EXPECT IT WILL PASS THE VA/NC
LINE DURING THE MORNING AND OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. PCPN WILL BE BIASED WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT AND LESSER AMOUNTS AS YOU GO FURTHER WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

THE BIGGEST CONCERN THROUGH THE NEAR TERM IS THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL SELY
JET WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PEAK AOA 70KTS JUST TO OUR WEST ROUGHLY FROM 5PM TO
1AM. THE COUNTIES OF TAZEWELL AND SMYTH IN VA AND MERCER IS WV ARE KNOWN TO
BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO STRONG WINDS TRANSLATING TO LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THIS TYPE
OF SITUATION SO WILL RAISE A WIND ADVSY FOR THESE LOCATIONS IN ANTICIPATION
OF GUSTS AROUND 50MPH. HOWEVER...EXPECTING WINDS NOT TOO FAR BELOW CRITERIA
FOR OTHER AREAS OF THE WESTERN SLOPES SO ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED IF
THE SITUATION UNFOLDS WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS.

ONCE THE WARM FRONT SURGES THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT WILL
WORK IN FROM THE WEST AND SHOULD RAPIDLY TAPER PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EST SUNDAY...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL 500H TROUGH WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
CONUS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH COOLER AIR REMAINING WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY...THEN ADVECTING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES A DRY COLD FRONT OVER AND EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE PERIOD. BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL THEN SET-UP
ALONG THE EAST COAST AND WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF STREAM TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE
NORTHEAST NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY.

IN THE WAKE OF SUNDAY NIGHTS WARM FRONTAL RAIN...FORECAST AREA
WILL BE IN THE DRY SLOT...WARM SECTOR SOUTHERLY WINDS PROVIDING A
BREEZY BUT MILD DAY MONDAY. 1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES OF
565-570DM AND 850H TEMPS OF +10 DEG C SUPPORT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S MONDAY...POSSIBLY TESTING THE LOWER
70S ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VA AND THE PIEDMONT. UNTIL SURFACE FRONT
CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE DAY...FORECAST AREA SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR/DRY SLOT WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THICKNESSES DROP BEHIND PASSING COLD
FRONT. ASIDE FOR SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SO BIGGEST CHANGE WILL BE A
SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION FROM SOUTH TO WEST...850 TEMPS TAKING
ABOUT A 10 DEGREE TUMBLE. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL RETURN TO
NOVEMBER NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE MU40S MTNS TO LM50S SOUTHSIDE
VA AND NC PIEDMONT.

WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL ENSURE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT VCNTY OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. TRACK/STRENGTH
OF THIS FEATURE WILL DEPEND ON OVERALL RESPONSE TO DYNAMIC FORCING
FROM SHORT WAVE ENERGY ARRIVING VIA THE UPPER LEVEL TROF...MODELS
TRENDING STRONGER AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THIS FEATURE WITH TIME.
AT THE VERY LEAST CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. QUESTIONS IS WHETHER THE MOISTURE WILL BECOME DEEP
ENOUGH THIS FAR WEST FROM THE COAST FOR PRECIPITATION. ATTM IT
APPEAR GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR RAIN TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 29 LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. IF PRECIPITATION
EXTENDS ALL THE WAY TO THE BLUE RIDGE...TEMPERATURES MAY BE COLD
ENOUGH ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM TO HAVE SNOW OR A RAIN
SNOW MIX. UNTIL A BETTER FIX ON STORM TRACK CAN BE
ESTABLISHED...QPF WILL REMAIN IN QUESTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EST SATURDAY...

TWO DISTINCT SYSTEMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR BRING SOME PRECIPITATION
TO PARTS OF THE AREA DURING THIS SEGMENT OF THE FORECAST. THE FIRST
ITEM OF INTEREST IS A LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG A
BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT WILL BE POSITIONED ALONG THE COAST DURING THE
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE
STILL INCONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER...AND WITH THEIR OWN PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS REGARDING THE TIMING...TRACK AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS FEATURE. YESTERDAY...THE ECWMF WAS THE ONLY OPERATIONAL
MODEL RUN THAT HINTED AT PRECIPITATION SKIRTING THE EASTERN EXTENT
OF THE FORECAST AREA. TODAY...ITS SOLUTIONS IS MORE ROBUST ON THIS
SCENARIO WITH PRECIPITATION NOW THE WHOLE WAY WEST TO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. TODAY...THE GFS SOLUTION IS ONLY SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST AS
COMPARED TO THE ECWMF FROM YESTERDAY...BUT STILL...HAS ALL BUT OUR
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES WITH AT LEAST 0.01 PRECIP. THE
CANADIAN SOLUTION KEEPS THE SYSTEM FARTHER OFF THE COAST WITH NOT A
DROP OF PRECIPITATION REACHING THE FORECAST AREA. OUR FORECAST FROM
YESTERDAY REFLECTED A MODEL BLEND CONSENSUS THAT WAS MORE IN LINE
WITH THE WETTER ECWMF SOLUTION. GIVEN BOTH THE GFS AND ECWMF ARE
WETTER FOR THE REGION...AND THE MODEL BLEND CONSENSUS IS ALSO WETTER
ACROSS THE REGION...HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT IN THE FORECAST.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO REFLECT 50
PERCENT IN THE EAST...WITH 20 TO 25 PERCENT IN THE WEST. SURFACE AND
LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MAINLY A SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW
FORECAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY...WITH PRIMARILY RAIN
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR ARRIVING ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR MORE LIGHT
SNOW...BUT WITH THE SYSTEM EXITING...MUCH LESS COVERAGE.

OUT NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT ZIPS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION
DURING THE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECWMF SOLUTIONS HAVE CHANGED COMPARED TO THEIR -24 HOUR
COUNTERPARTS. PRIOR...MODEL SOLUTIONS WERE HINTING AT A MORE
PROLONGED CLOSED LOW STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
WITH A MORE PROFOUND SHOT OF COLDER AIR IN ITS WAKE. THE LATEST
SOLUTIONS OFFER A MORE GLANCING BLOW OF ENERGY ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH THE COLDER AIR NOT HAVING AS MUCH CHANCE TO MAKE THE
TURN SOUTH PRIOR TO ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE
OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WHILE THE FORECAST WILL STILL OFFER SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL BE A BIT MILDER THAN WHAT AS OFFERED IN THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM EST SUNDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN HANDLING OF UPCOMING
SYSTEM. STILL ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE AIRMASS MOISTENS UP AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE MID MISS VALLEY BRING A WARM FRONT ACROSS BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON AT MOST SITES
WITH LIGHT RAIN FOLLOWING CLOSE BEHIND. EXPECT PERIODS OF MDT AND
HEAVY RAIN FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...
ALONG WITH TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS. CONTINUING TO MONITOR POTENTIAL
LOW LVL WIND SHEAR AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO AOA 60KTS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WILL NOT MENTION IN THIS PACKAGE BUT WILL INCLUDE WITH THE
12Z ISSUANCE IF NEEDED.

LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND
GUSTY SUNDAY. WINDS AT BLF MAY STAY UP A BIT TONIGHT AS
THE INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AND WARM FRONT START TO
BE FELT.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

RAIN AND WIND CONTINUE WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT.
A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR DURING MONDAY OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A
DRY SLOT DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE EXITING FRONT FROM SUNDAY AND THE
NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. MONDAY INTO TUESDAY LOOK TO FEATURE
QUITE A BIT OF WIND. NW FLOW INTO MAY KEEP SUB VFR CIGS INTO BLF
AND POSSIBLE LWB...WITH VFR TO THE EAST. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
WHICH MAY BRING WINTRY PRECIP TO THE AREA ALONG WITH SUB VFR AT
ALL SITES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 215 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WILL BE OUT
OF SERVICE UNTIL PARTS ARRIVE TO REPLACE THE SENSOR. UNTIL THEN
THE VISIBILITY WILL ONLY BE REPORTED WHEN THE CONTROL TOWER IS
STAFFED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     VAZ007-009.
NC...NONE.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     WVZ042.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...KK/MBS/WP
EQUIPMENT...RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 230943
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
443 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD RAIN INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT...AND WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION
AND OTHER HIGH ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH TUESDAY...RETURNING TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL STORM TO
IMPACT PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EST SUNDAY...

EVERYTHING SEEMS TO BE UNFOLDING AS ADVERTISED AS PCPN TO OUR SOUTH
IS ADVANCING TOWARD THE REGION AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT ATTACHED TO A
DEVELOPING LOW IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DRY AIR WILL HINDER PROGRESS
OF PCPN AS IT ENTERS THE REGION...BUT EXPECT IT WILL PASS THE VA/NC
LINE DURING THE MORNING AND OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. PCPN WILL BE BIASED WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT AND LESSER AMOUNTS AS YOU GO FURTHER WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

THE BIGGEST CONCERN THROUGH THE NEAR TERM IS THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL SELY
JET WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PEAK AOA 70KTS JUST TO OUR WEST ROUGHLY FROM 5PM TO
1AM. THE COUNTIES OF TAZEWELL AND SMYTH IN VA AND MERCER IS WV ARE KNOWN TO
BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO STRONG WINDS TRANSLATING TO LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THIS TYPE
OF SITUATION SO WILL RAISE A WIND ADVSY FOR THESE LOCATIONS IN ANTICIPATION
OF GUSTS AROUND 50MPH. HOWEVER...EXPECTING WINDS NOT TOO FAR BELOW CRITERIA
FOR OTHER AREAS OF THE WESTERN SLOPES SO ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED IF
THE SITUATION UNFOLDS WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS.

ONCE THE WARM FRONT SURGES THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT WILL
WORK IN FROM THE WEST AND SHOULD RAPIDLY TAPER PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EST SUNDAY...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL 500H TROUGH WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
CONUS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH COOLER AIR REMAINING WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY...THEN ADVECTING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES A DRY COLD FRONT OVER AND EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE PERIOD. BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL THEN SET-UP
ALONG THE EAST COAST AND WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF STREAM TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE
NORTHEAST NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY.

IN THE WAKE OF SUNDAY NIGHTS WARM FRONTAL RAIN...FORECAST AREA
WILL BE IN THE DRY SLOT...WARM SECTOR SOUTHERLY WINDS PROVIDING A
BREEZY BUT MILD DAY MONDAY. 1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES OF
565-570DM AND 850H TEMPS OF +10 DEG C SUPPORT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S MONDAY...POSSIBLY TESTING THE LOWER
70S ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VA AND THE PIEDMONT. UNTIL SURFACE FRONT
CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE DAY...FORECAST AREA SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR/DRY SLOT WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THICKNESSES DROP BEHIND PASSING COLD
FRONT. ASIDE FOR SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SO BIGGEST CHANGE WILL BE A
SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION FROM SOUTH TO WEST...850 TEMPS TAKING
ABOUT A 10 DEGREE TUMBLE. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL RETURN TO
NOVEMBER NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE MU40S MTNS TO LM50S SOUTHSIDE
VA AND NC PIEDMONT.

WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL ENSURE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT VCNTY OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. TRACK/STRENGTH
OF THIS FEATURE WILL DEPEND ON OVERALL RESPONSE TO DYNAMIC FORCING
FROM SHORT WAVE ENERGY ARRIVING VIA THE UPPER LEVEL TROF...MODELS
TRENDING STRONGER AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THIS FEATURE WITH TIME.
AT THE VERY LEAST CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. QUESTIONS IS WHETHER THE MOISTURE WILL BECOME DEEP
ENOUGH THIS FAR WEST FROM THE COAST FOR PRECIPITATION. ATTM IT
APPEAR GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR RAIN TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 29 LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. IF PRECIPITATION
EXTENDS ALL THE WAY TO THE BLUE RIDGE...TEMPERATURES MAY BE COLD
ENOUGH ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM TO HAVE SNOW OR A RAIN
SNOW MIX. UNTIL A BETTER FIX ON STORM TRACK CAN BE
ESTABLISHED...QPF WILL REMAIN IN QUESTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EST SATURDAY...

TWO DISTINCT SYSTEMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR BRING SOME PRECIPITATION
TO PARTS OF THE AREA DURING THIS SEGMENT OF THE FORECAST. THE FIRST
ITEM OF INTEREST IS A LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG A
BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT WILL BE POSITIONED ALONG THE COAST DURING THE
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE
STILL INCONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER...AND WITH THEIR OWN PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS REGARDING THE TIMING...TRACK AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS FEATURE. YESTERDAY...THE ECWMF WAS THE ONLY OPERATIONAL
MODEL RUN THAT HINTED AT PRECIPITATION SKIRTING THE EASTERN EXTENT
OF THE FORECAST AREA. TODAY...ITS SOLUTIONS IS MORE ROBUST ON THIS
SCENARIO WITH PRECIPITATION NOW THE WHOLE WAY WEST TO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. TODAY...THE GFS SOLUTION IS ONLY SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST AS
COMPARED TO THE ECWMF FROM YESTERDAY...BUT STILL...HAS ALL BUT OUR
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES WITH AT LEAST 0.01 PRECIP. THE
CANADIAN SOLUTION KEEPS THE SYSTEM FARTHER OFF THE COAST WITH NOT A
DROP OF PRECIPITATION REACHING THE FORECAST AREA. OUR FORECAST FROM
YESTERDAY REFLECTED A MODEL BLEND CONSENSUS THAT WAS MORE IN LINE
WITH THE WETTER ECWMF SOLUTION. GIVEN BOTH THE GFS AND ECWMF ARE
WETTER FOR THE REGION...AND THE MODEL BLEND CONSENSUS IS ALSO WETTER
ACROSS THE REGION...HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT IN THE FORECAST.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO REFLECT 50
PERCENT IN THE EAST...WITH 20 TO 25 PERCENT IN THE WEST. SURFACE AND
LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MAINLY A SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW
FORECAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY...WITH PRIMARILY RAIN
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR ARRIVING ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR MORE LIGHT
SNOW...BUT WITH THE SYSTEM EXITING...MUCH LESS COVERAGE.

OUT NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT ZIPS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION
DURING THE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECWMF SOLUTIONS HAVE CHANGED COMPARED TO THEIR -24 HOUR
COUNTERPARTS. PRIOR...MODEL SOLUTIONS WERE HINTING AT A MORE
PROLONGED CLOSED LOW STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
WITH A MORE PROFOUND SHOT OF COLDER AIR IN ITS WAKE. THE LATEST
SOLUTIONS OFFER A MORE GLANCING BLOW OF ENERGY ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH THE COLDER AIR NOT HAVING AS MUCH CHANCE TO MAKE THE
TURN SOUTH PRIOR TO ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE
OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WHILE THE FORECAST WILL STILL OFFER SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL BE A BIT MILDER THAN WHAT AS OFFERED IN THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM EST SUNDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN HANDLING OF UPCOMING
SYSTEM. STILL ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE AIRMASS MOISTENS UP AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE MID MISS VALLEY BRING A WARM FRONT ACROSS BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON AT MOST SITES
WITH LIGHT RAIN FOLLOWING CLOSE BEHIND. EXPECT PERIODS OF MDT AND
HEAVY RAIN FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...
ALONG WITH TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS. CONTINUING TO MONITOR POTENTIAL
LOW LVL WIND SHEAR AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO AOA 60KTS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WILL NOT MENTION IN THIS PACKAGE BUT WILL INCLUDE WITH THE
12Z ISSUANCE IF NEEDED.

LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND
GUSTY SUNDAY. WINDS AT BLF MAY STAY UP A BIT TONIGHT AS
THE INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AND WARM FRONT START TO
BE FELT.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

RAIN AND WIND CONTINUE WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT.
A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR DURING MONDAY OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A
DRY SLOT DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE EXITING FRONT FROM SUNDAY AND THE
NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. MONDAY INTO TUESDAY LOOK TO FEATURE
QUITE A BIT OF WIND. NW FLOW INTO MAY KEEP SUB VFR CIGS INTO BLF
AND POSSIBLE LWB...WITH VFR TO THE EAST. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
WHICH MAY BRING WINTRY PRECIP TO THE AREA ALONG WITH SUB VFR AT
ALL SITES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 215 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WILL BE OUT
OF SERVICE UNTIL PARTS ARRIVE TO REPLACE THE SENSOR. UNTIL THEN
THE VISIBILITY WILL ONLY BE REPORTED WHEN THE CONTROL TOWER IS
STAFFED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     VAZ007-009.
NC...NONE.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     WVZ042.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...KK/MBS/WP
EQUIPMENT...RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 230943
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
443 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD RAIN INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT...AND WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION
AND OTHER HIGH ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH TUESDAY...RETURNING TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL STORM TO
IMPACT PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EST SUNDAY...

EVERYTHING SEEMS TO BE UNFOLDING AS ADVERTISED AS PCPN TO OUR SOUTH
IS ADVANCING TOWARD THE REGION AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT ATTACHED TO A
DEVELOPING LOW IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DRY AIR WILL HINDER PROGRESS
OF PCPN AS IT ENTERS THE REGION...BUT EXPECT IT WILL PASS THE VA/NC
LINE DURING THE MORNING AND OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. PCPN WILL BE BIASED WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT AND LESSER AMOUNTS AS YOU GO FURTHER WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

THE BIGGEST CONCERN THROUGH THE NEAR TERM IS THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL SELY
JET WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PEAK AOA 70KTS JUST TO OUR WEST ROUGHLY FROM 5PM TO
1AM. THE COUNTIES OF TAZEWELL AND SMYTH IN VA AND MERCER IS WV ARE KNOWN TO
BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO STRONG WINDS TRANSLATING TO LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THIS TYPE
OF SITUATION SO WILL RAISE A WIND ADVSY FOR THESE LOCATIONS IN ANTICIPATION
OF GUSTS AROUND 50MPH. HOWEVER...EXPECTING WINDS NOT TOO FAR BELOW CRITERIA
FOR OTHER AREAS OF THE WESTERN SLOPES SO ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED IF
THE SITUATION UNFOLDS WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS.

ONCE THE WARM FRONT SURGES THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT WILL
WORK IN FROM THE WEST AND SHOULD RAPIDLY TAPER PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EST SUNDAY...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL 500H TROUGH WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
CONUS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH COOLER AIR REMAINING WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY...THEN ADVECTING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES A DRY COLD FRONT OVER AND EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE PERIOD. BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL THEN SET-UP
ALONG THE EAST COAST AND WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF STREAM TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE
NORTHEAST NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY.

IN THE WAKE OF SUNDAY NIGHTS WARM FRONTAL RAIN...FORECAST AREA
WILL BE IN THE DRY SLOT...WARM SECTOR SOUTHERLY WINDS PROVIDING A
BREEZY BUT MILD DAY MONDAY. 1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES OF
565-570DM AND 850H TEMPS OF +10 DEG C SUPPORT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S MONDAY...POSSIBLY TESTING THE LOWER
70S ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VA AND THE PIEDMONT. UNTIL SURFACE FRONT
CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE DAY...FORECAST AREA SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR/DRY SLOT WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THICKNESSES DROP BEHIND PASSING COLD
FRONT. ASIDE FOR SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SO BIGGEST CHANGE WILL BE A
SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION FROM SOUTH TO WEST...850 TEMPS TAKING
ABOUT A 10 DEGREE TUMBLE. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL RETURN TO
NOVEMBER NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE MU40S MTNS TO LM50S SOUTHSIDE
VA AND NC PIEDMONT.

WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL ENSURE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT VCNTY OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. TRACK/STRENGTH
OF THIS FEATURE WILL DEPEND ON OVERALL RESPONSE TO DYNAMIC FORCING
FROM SHORT WAVE ENERGY ARRIVING VIA THE UPPER LEVEL TROF...MODELS
TRENDING STRONGER AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THIS FEATURE WITH TIME.
AT THE VERY LEAST CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. QUESTIONS IS WHETHER THE MOISTURE WILL BECOME DEEP
ENOUGH THIS FAR WEST FROM THE COAST FOR PRECIPITATION. ATTM IT
APPEAR GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR RAIN TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 29 LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. IF PRECIPITATION
EXTENDS ALL THE WAY TO THE BLUE RIDGE...TEMPERATURES MAY BE COLD
ENOUGH ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM TO HAVE SNOW OR A RAIN
SNOW MIX. UNTIL A BETTER FIX ON STORM TRACK CAN BE
ESTABLISHED...QPF WILL REMAIN IN QUESTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EST SATURDAY...

TWO DISTINCT SYSTEMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR BRING SOME PRECIPITATION
TO PARTS OF THE AREA DURING THIS SEGMENT OF THE FORECAST. THE FIRST
ITEM OF INTEREST IS A LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG A
BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT WILL BE POSITIONED ALONG THE COAST DURING THE
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE
STILL INCONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER...AND WITH THEIR OWN PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS REGARDING THE TIMING...TRACK AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS FEATURE. YESTERDAY...THE ECWMF WAS THE ONLY OPERATIONAL
MODEL RUN THAT HINTED AT PRECIPITATION SKIRTING THE EASTERN EXTENT
OF THE FORECAST AREA. TODAY...ITS SOLUTIONS IS MORE ROBUST ON THIS
SCENARIO WITH PRECIPITATION NOW THE WHOLE WAY WEST TO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. TODAY...THE GFS SOLUTION IS ONLY SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST AS
COMPARED TO THE ECWMF FROM YESTERDAY...BUT STILL...HAS ALL BUT OUR
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES WITH AT LEAST 0.01 PRECIP. THE
CANADIAN SOLUTION KEEPS THE SYSTEM FARTHER OFF THE COAST WITH NOT A
DROP OF PRECIPITATION REACHING THE FORECAST AREA. OUR FORECAST FROM
YESTERDAY REFLECTED A MODEL BLEND CONSENSUS THAT WAS MORE IN LINE
WITH THE WETTER ECWMF SOLUTION. GIVEN BOTH THE GFS AND ECWMF ARE
WETTER FOR THE REGION...AND THE MODEL BLEND CONSENSUS IS ALSO WETTER
ACROSS THE REGION...HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT IN THE FORECAST.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO REFLECT 50
PERCENT IN THE EAST...WITH 20 TO 25 PERCENT IN THE WEST. SURFACE AND
LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MAINLY A SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW
FORECAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY...WITH PRIMARILY RAIN
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR ARRIVING ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR MORE LIGHT
SNOW...BUT WITH THE SYSTEM EXITING...MUCH LESS COVERAGE.

OUT NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT ZIPS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION
DURING THE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECWMF SOLUTIONS HAVE CHANGED COMPARED TO THEIR -24 HOUR
COUNTERPARTS. PRIOR...MODEL SOLUTIONS WERE HINTING AT A MORE
PROLONGED CLOSED LOW STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
WITH A MORE PROFOUND SHOT OF COLDER AIR IN ITS WAKE. THE LATEST
SOLUTIONS OFFER A MORE GLANCING BLOW OF ENERGY ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH THE COLDER AIR NOT HAVING AS MUCH CHANCE TO MAKE THE
TURN SOUTH PRIOR TO ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE
OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WHILE THE FORECAST WILL STILL OFFER SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL BE A BIT MILDER THAN WHAT AS OFFERED IN THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM EST SUNDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN HANDLING OF UPCOMING
SYSTEM. STILL ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE AIRMASS MOISTENS UP AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE MID MISS VALLEY BRING A WARM FRONT ACROSS BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON AT MOST SITES
WITH LIGHT RAIN FOLLOWING CLOSE BEHIND. EXPECT PERIODS OF MDT AND
HEAVY RAIN FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...
ALONG WITH TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS. CONTINUING TO MONITOR POTENTIAL
LOW LVL WIND SHEAR AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO AOA 60KTS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WILL NOT MENTION IN THIS PACKAGE BUT WILL INCLUDE WITH THE
12Z ISSUANCE IF NEEDED.

LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND
GUSTY SUNDAY. WINDS AT BLF MAY STAY UP A BIT TONIGHT AS
THE INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AND WARM FRONT START TO
BE FELT.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

RAIN AND WIND CONTINUE WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT.
A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR DURING MONDAY OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A
DRY SLOT DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE EXITING FRONT FROM SUNDAY AND THE
NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. MONDAY INTO TUESDAY LOOK TO FEATURE
QUITE A BIT OF WIND. NW FLOW INTO MAY KEEP SUB VFR CIGS INTO BLF
AND POSSIBLE LWB...WITH VFR TO THE EAST. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
WHICH MAY BRING WINTRY PRECIP TO THE AREA ALONG WITH SUB VFR AT
ALL SITES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 215 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WILL BE OUT
OF SERVICE UNTIL PARTS ARRIVE TO REPLACE THE SENSOR. UNTIL THEN
THE VISIBILITY WILL ONLY BE REPORTED WHEN THE CONTROL TOWER IS
STAFFED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     VAZ007-009.
NC...NONE.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     WVZ042.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...KK/MBS/WP
EQUIPMENT...RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 230943
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
443 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD RAIN INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT...AND WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION
AND OTHER HIGH ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH TUESDAY...RETURNING TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL STORM TO
IMPACT PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EST SUNDAY...

EVERYTHING SEEMS TO BE UNFOLDING AS ADVERTISED AS PCPN TO OUR SOUTH
IS ADVANCING TOWARD THE REGION AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT ATTACHED TO A
DEVELOPING LOW IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DRY AIR WILL HINDER PROGRESS
OF PCPN AS IT ENTERS THE REGION...BUT EXPECT IT WILL PASS THE VA/NC
LINE DURING THE MORNING AND OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. PCPN WILL BE BIASED WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT AND LESSER AMOUNTS AS YOU GO FURTHER WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

THE BIGGEST CONCERN THROUGH THE NEAR TERM IS THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL SELY
JET WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PEAK AOA 70KTS JUST TO OUR WEST ROUGHLY FROM 5PM TO
1AM. THE COUNTIES OF TAZEWELL AND SMYTH IN VA AND MERCER IS WV ARE KNOWN TO
BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO STRONG WINDS TRANSLATING TO LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THIS TYPE
OF SITUATION SO WILL RAISE A WIND ADVSY FOR THESE LOCATIONS IN ANTICIPATION
OF GUSTS AROUND 50MPH. HOWEVER...EXPECTING WINDS NOT TOO FAR BELOW CRITERIA
FOR OTHER AREAS OF THE WESTERN SLOPES SO ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED IF
THE SITUATION UNFOLDS WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS.

ONCE THE WARM FRONT SURGES THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT WILL
WORK IN FROM THE WEST AND SHOULD RAPIDLY TAPER PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EST SUNDAY...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL 500H TROUGH WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
CONUS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH COOLER AIR REMAINING WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY...THEN ADVECTING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES A DRY COLD FRONT OVER AND EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE PERIOD. BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL THEN SET-UP
ALONG THE EAST COAST AND WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF STREAM TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE
NORTHEAST NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY.

IN THE WAKE OF SUNDAY NIGHTS WARM FRONTAL RAIN...FORECAST AREA
WILL BE IN THE DRY SLOT...WARM SECTOR SOUTHERLY WINDS PROVIDING A
BREEZY BUT MILD DAY MONDAY. 1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES OF
565-570DM AND 850H TEMPS OF +10 DEG C SUPPORT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S MONDAY...POSSIBLY TESTING THE LOWER
70S ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VA AND THE PIEDMONT. UNTIL SURFACE FRONT
CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE DAY...FORECAST AREA SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR/DRY SLOT WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THICKNESSES DROP BEHIND PASSING COLD
FRONT. ASIDE FOR SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SO BIGGEST CHANGE WILL BE A
SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION FROM SOUTH TO WEST...850 TEMPS TAKING
ABOUT A 10 DEGREE TUMBLE. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL RETURN TO
NOVEMBER NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE MU40S MTNS TO LM50S SOUTHSIDE
VA AND NC PIEDMONT.

WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL ENSURE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT VCNTY OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. TRACK/STRENGTH
OF THIS FEATURE WILL DEPEND ON OVERALL RESPONSE TO DYNAMIC FORCING
FROM SHORT WAVE ENERGY ARRIVING VIA THE UPPER LEVEL TROF...MODELS
TRENDING STRONGER AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THIS FEATURE WITH TIME.
AT THE VERY LEAST CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. QUESTIONS IS WHETHER THE MOISTURE WILL BECOME DEEP
ENOUGH THIS FAR WEST FROM THE COAST FOR PRECIPITATION. ATTM IT
APPEAR GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR RAIN TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 29 LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. IF PRECIPITATION
EXTENDS ALL THE WAY TO THE BLUE RIDGE...TEMPERATURES MAY BE COLD
ENOUGH ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM TO HAVE SNOW OR A RAIN
SNOW MIX. UNTIL A BETTER FIX ON STORM TRACK CAN BE
ESTABLISHED...QPF WILL REMAIN IN QUESTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EST SATURDAY...

TWO DISTINCT SYSTEMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR BRING SOME PRECIPITATION
TO PARTS OF THE AREA DURING THIS SEGMENT OF THE FORECAST. THE FIRST
ITEM OF INTEREST IS A LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG A
BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT WILL BE POSITIONED ALONG THE COAST DURING THE
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE
STILL INCONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER...AND WITH THEIR OWN PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS REGARDING THE TIMING...TRACK AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS FEATURE. YESTERDAY...THE ECWMF WAS THE ONLY OPERATIONAL
MODEL RUN THAT HINTED AT PRECIPITATION SKIRTING THE EASTERN EXTENT
OF THE FORECAST AREA. TODAY...ITS SOLUTIONS IS MORE ROBUST ON THIS
SCENARIO WITH PRECIPITATION NOW THE WHOLE WAY WEST TO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. TODAY...THE GFS SOLUTION IS ONLY SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST AS
COMPARED TO THE ECWMF FROM YESTERDAY...BUT STILL...HAS ALL BUT OUR
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES WITH AT LEAST 0.01 PRECIP. THE
CANADIAN SOLUTION KEEPS THE SYSTEM FARTHER OFF THE COAST WITH NOT A
DROP OF PRECIPITATION REACHING THE FORECAST AREA. OUR FORECAST FROM
YESTERDAY REFLECTED A MODEL BLEND CONSENSUS THAT WAS MORE IN LINE
WITH THE WETTER ECWMF SOLUTION. GIVEN BOTH THE GFS AND ECWMF ARE
WETTER FOR THE REGION...AND THE MODEL BLEND CONSENSUS IS ALSO WETTER
ACROSS THE REGION...HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT IN THE FORECAST.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO REFLECT 50
PERCENT IN THE EAST...WITH 20 TO 25 PERCENT IN THE WEST. SURFACE AND
LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MAINLY A SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW
FORECAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY...WITH PRIMARILY RAIN
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR ARRIVING ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR MORE LIGHT
SNOW...BUT WITH THE SYSTEM EXITING...MUCH LESS COVERAGE.

OUT NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT ZIPS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION
DURING THE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECWMF SOLUTIONS HAVE CHANGED COMPARED TO THEIR -24 HOUR
COUNTERPARTS. PRIOR...MODEL SOLUTIONS WERE HINTING AT A MORE
PROLONGED CLOSED LOW STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
WITH A MORE PROFOUND SHOT OF COLDER AIR IN ITS WAKE. THE LATEST
SOLUTIONS OFFER A MORE GLANCING BLOW OF ENERGY ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH THE COLDER AIR NOT HAVING AS MUCH CHANCE TO MAKE THE
TURN SOUTH PRIOR TO ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE
OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WHILE THE FORECAST WILL STILL OFFER SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL BE A BIT MILDER THAN WHAT AS OFFERED IN THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM EST SUNDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN HANDLING OF UPCOMING
SYSTEM. STILL ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE AIRMASS MOISTENS UP AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE MID MISS VALLEY BRING A WARM FRONT ACROSS BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON AT MOST SITES
WITH LIGHT RAIN FOLLOWING CLOSE BEHIND. EXPECT PERIODS OF MDT AND
HEAVY RAIN FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...
ALONG WITH TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS. CONTINUING TO MONITOR POTENTIAL
LOW LVL WIND SHEAR AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO AOA 60KTS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WILL NOT MENTION IN THIS PACKAGE BUT WILL INCLUDE WITH THE
12Z ISSUANCE IF NEEDED.

LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND
GUSTY SUNDAY. WINDS AT BLF MAY STAY UP A BIT TONIGHT AS
THE INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AND WARM FRONT START TO
BE FELT.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

RAIN AND WIND CONTINUE WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT.
A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR DURING MONDAY OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A
DRY SLOT DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE EXITING FRONT FROM SUNDAY AND THE
NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. MONDAY INTO TUESDAY LOOK TO FEATURE
QUITE A BIT OF WIND. NW FLOW INTO MAY KEEP SUB VFR CIGS INTO BLF
AND POSSIBLE LWB...WITH VFR TO THE EAST. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
WHICH MAY BRING WINTRY PRECIP TO THE AREA ALONG WITH SUB VFR AT
ALL SITES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 215 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WILL BE OUT
OF SERVICE UNTIL PARTS ARRIVE TO REPLACE THE SENSOR. UNTIL THEN
THE VISIBILITY WILL ONLY BE REPORTED WHEN THE CONTROL TOWER IS
STAFFED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     VAZ007-009.
NC...NONE.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     WVZ042.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...KK/MBS/WP
EQUIPMENT...RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 230943
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
443 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD RAIN INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT...AND WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION
AND OTHER HIGH ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH TUESDAY...RETURNING TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL STORM TO
IMPACT PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EST SUNDAY...

EVERYTHING SEEMS TO BE UNFOLDING AS ADVERTISED AS PCPN TO OUR SOUTH
IS ADVANCING TOWARD THE REGION AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT ATTACHED TO A
DEVELOPING LOW IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DRY AIR WILL HINDER PROGRESS
OF PCPN AS IT ENTERS THE REGION...BUT EXPECT IT WILL PASS THE VA/NC
LINE DURING THE MORNING AND OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. PCPN WILL BE BIASED WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT AND LESSER AMOUNTS AS YOU GO FURTHER WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

THE BIGGEST CONCERN THROUGH THE NEAR TERM IS THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL SELY
JET WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PEAK AOA 70KTS JUST TO OUR WEST ROUGHLY FROM 5PM TO
1AM. THE COUNTIES OF TAZEWELL AND SMYTH IN VA AND MERCER IS WV ARE KNOWN TO
BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO STRONG WINDS TRANSLATING TO LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THIS TYPE
OF SITUATION SO WILL RAISE A WIND ADVSY FOR THESE LOCATIONS IN ANTICIPATION
OF GUSTS AROUND 50MPH. HOWEVER...EXPECTING WINDS NOT TOO FAR BELOW CRITERIA
FOR OTHER AREAS OF THE WESTERN SLOPES SO ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED IF
THE SITUATION UNFOLDS WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS.

ONCE THE WARM FRONT SURGES THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT WILL
WORK IN FROM THE WEST AND SHOULD RAPIDLY TAPER PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EST SUNDAY...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL 500H TROUGH WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
CONUS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH COOLER AIR REMAINING WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY...THEN ADVECTING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES A DRY COLD FRONT OVER AND EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE PERIOD. BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL THEN SET-UP
ALONG THE EAST COAST AND WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF STREAM TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE
NORTHEAST NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY.

IN THE WAKE OF SUNDAY NIGHTS WARM FRONTAL RAIN...FORECAST AREA
WILL BE IN THE DRY SLOT...WARM SECTOR SOUTHERLY WINDS PROVIDING A
BREEZY BUT MILD DAY MONDAY. 1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES OF
565-570DM AND 850H TEMPS OF +10 DEG C SUPPORT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S MONDAY...POSSIBLY TESTING THE LOWER
70S ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VA AND THE PIEDMONT. UNTIL SURFACE FRONT
CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE DAY...FORECAST AREA SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR/DRY SLOT WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THICKNESSES DROP BEHIND PASSING COLD
FRONT. ASIDE FOR SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SO BIGGEST CHANGE WILL BE A
SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION FROM SOUTH TO WEST...850 TEMPS TAKING
ABOUT A 10 DEGREE TUMBLE. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL RETURN TO
NOVEMBER NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE MU40S MTNS TO LM50S SOUTHSIDE
VA AND NC PIEDMONT.

WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL ENSURE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT VCNTY OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. TRACK/STRENGTH
OF THIS FEATURE WILL DEPEND ON OVERALL RESPONSE TO DYNAMIC FORCING
FROM SHORT WAVE ENERGY ARRIVING VIA THE UPPER LEVEL TROF...MODELS
TRENDING STRONGER AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THIS FEATURE WITH TIME.
AT THE VERY LEAST CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. QUESTIONS IS WHETHER THE MOISTURE WILL BECOME DEEP
ENOUGH THIS FAR WEST FROM THE COAST FOR PRECIPITATION. ATTM IT
APPEAR GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR RAIN TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 29 LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. IF PRECIPITATION
EXTENDS ALL THE WAY TO THE BLUE RIDGE...TEMPERATURES MAY BE COLD
ENOUGH ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM TO HAVE SNOW OR A RAIN
SNOW MIX. UNTIL A BETTER FIX ON STORM TRACK CAN BE
ESTABLISHED...QPF WILL REMAIN IN QUESTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EST SATURDAY...

TWO DISTINCT SYSTEMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR BRING SOME PRECIPITATION
TO PARTS OF THE AREA DURING THIS SEGMENT OF THE FORECAST. THE FIRST
ITEM OF INTEREST IS A LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG A
BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT WILL BE POSITIONED ALONG THE COAST DURING THE
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE
STILL INCONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER...AND WITH THEIR OWN PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS REGARDING THE TIMING...TRACK AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS FEATURE. YESTERDAY...THE ECWMF WAS THE ONLY OPERATIONAL
MODEL RUN THAT HINTED AT PRECIPITATION SKIRTING THE EASTERN EXTENT
OF THE FORECAST AREA. TODAY...ITS SOLUTIONS IS MORE ROBUST ON THIS
SCENARIO WITH PRECIPITATION NOW THE WHOLE WAY WEST TO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. TODAY...THE GFS SOLUTION IS ONLY SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST AS
COMPARED TO THE ECWMF FROM YESTERDAY...BUT STILL...HAS ALL BUT OUR
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES WITH AT LEAST 0.01 PRECIP. THE
CANADIAN SOLUTION KEEPS THE SYSTEM FARTHER OFF THE COAST WITH NOT A
DROP OF PRECIPITATION REACHING THE FORECAST AREA. OUR FORECAST FROM
YESTERDAY REFLECTED A MODEL BLEND CONSENSUS THAT WAS MORE IN LINE
WITH THE WETTER ECWMF SOLUTION. GIVEN BOTH THE GFS AND ECWMF ARE
WETTER FOR THE REGION...AND THE MODEL BLEND CONSENSUS IS ALSO WETTER
ACROSS THE REGION...HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT IN THE FORECAST.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO REFLECT 50
PERCENT IN THE EAST...WITH 20 TO 25 PERCENT IN THE WEST. SURFACE AND
LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MAINLY A SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW
FORECAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY...WITH PRIMARILY RAIN
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR ARRIVING ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR MORE LIGHT
SNOW...BUT WITH THE SYSTEM EXITING...MUCH LESS COVERAGE.

OUT NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT ZIPS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION
DURING THE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECWMF SOLUTIONS HAVE CHANGED COMPARED TO THEIR -24 HOUR
COUNTERPARTS. PRIOR...MODEL SOLUTIONS WERE HINTING AT A MORE
PROLONGED CLOSED LOW STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
WITH A MORE PROFOUND SHOT OF COLDER AIR IN ITS WAKE. THE LATEST
SOLUTIONS OFFER A MORE GLANCING BLOW OF ENERGY ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH THE COLDER AIR NOT HAVING AS MUCH CHANCE TO MAKE THE
TURN SOUTH PRIOR TO ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE
OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WHILE THE FORECAST WILL STILL OFFER SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL BE A BIT MILDER THAN WHAT AS OFFERED IN THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM EST SUNDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN HANDLING OF UPCOMING
SYSTEM. STILL ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE AIRMASS MOISTENS UP AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE MID MISS VALLEY BRING A WARM FRONT ACROSS BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON AT MOST SITES
WITH LIGHT RAIN FOLLOWING CLOSE BEHIND. EXPECT PERIODS OF MDT AND
HEAVY RAIN FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...
ALONG WITH TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS. CONTINUING TO MONITOR POTENTIAL
LOW LVL WIND SHEAR AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO AOA 60KTS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WILL NOT MENTION IN THIS PACKAGE BUT WILL INCLUDE WITH THE
12Z ISSUANCE IF NEEDED.

LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND
GUSTY SUNDAY. WINDS AT BLF MAY STAY UP A BIT TONIGHT AS
THE INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AND WARM FRONT START TO
BE FELT.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

RAIN AND WIND CONTINUE WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT.
A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR DURING MONDAY OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A
DRY SLOT DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE EXITING FRONT FROM SUNDAY AND THE
NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. MONDAY INTO TUESDAY LOOK TO FEATURE
QUITE A BIT OF WIND. NW FLOW INTO MAY KEEP SUB VFR CIGS INTO BLF
AND POSSIBLE LWB...WITH VFR TO THE EAST. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
WHICH MAY BRING WINTRY PRECIP TO THE AREA ALONG WITH SUB VFR AT
ALL SITES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 215 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WILL BE OUT
OF SERVICE UNTIL PARTS ARRIVE TO REPLACE THE SENSOR. UNTIL THEN
THE VISIBILITY WILL ONLY BE REPORTED WHEN THE CONTROL TOWER IS
STAFFED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     VAZ007-009.
NC...NONE.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     WVZ042.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...KK/MBS/WP
EQUIPMENT...RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 230943
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
443 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD RAIN INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT...AND WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION
AND OTHER HIGH ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH TUESDAY...RETURNING TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL STORM TO
IMPACT PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EST SUNDAY...

EVERYTHING SEEMS TO BE UNFOLDING AS ADVERTISED AS PCPN TO OUR SOUTH
IS ADVANCING TOWARD THE REGION AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT ATTACHED TO A
DEVELOPING LOW IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DRY AIR WILL HINDER PROGRESS
OF PCPN AS IT ENTERS THE REGION...BUT EXPECT IT WILL PASS THE VA/NC
LINE DURING THE MORNING AND OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. PCPN WILL BE BIASED WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT AND LESSER AMOUNTS AS YOU GO FURTHER WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

THE BIGGEST CONCERN THROUGH THE NEAR TERM IS THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL SELY
JET WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PEAK AOA 70KTS JUST TO OUR WEST ROUGHLY FROM 5PM TO
1AM. THE COUNTIES OF TAZEWELL AND SMYTH IN VA AND MERCER IS WV ARE KNOWN TO
BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO STRONG WINDS TRANSLATING TO LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THIS TYPE
OF SITUATION SO WILL RAISE A WIND ADVSY FOR THESE LOCATIONS IN ANTICIPATION
OF GUSTS AROUND 50MPH. HOWEVER...EXPECTING WINDS NOT TOO FAR BELOW CRITERIA
FOR OTHER AREAS OF THE WESTERN SLOPES SO ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED IF
THE SITUATION UNFOLDS WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS.

ONCE THE WARM FRONT SURGES THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT WILL
WORK IN FROM THE WEST AND SHOULD RAPIDLY TAPER PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EST SUNDAY...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL 500H TROUGH WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
CONUS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH COOLER AIR REMAINING WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY...THEN ADVECTING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES A DRY COLD FRONT OVER AND EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE PERIOD. BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL THEN SET-UP
ALONG THE EAST COAST AND WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF STREAM TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE
NORTHEAST NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY.

IN THE WAKE OF SUNDAY NIGHTS WARM FRONTAL RAIN...FORECAST AREA
WILL BE IN THE DRY SLOT...WARM SECTOR SOUTHERLY WINDS PROVIDING A
BREEZY BUT MILD DAY MONDAY. 1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES OF
565-570DM AND 850H TEMPS OF +10 DEG C SUPPORT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S MONDAY...POSSIBLY TESTING THE LOWER
70S ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VA AND THE PIEDMONT. UNTIL SURFACE FRONT
CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE DAY...FORECAST AREA SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR/DRY SLOT WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THICKNESSES DROP BEHIND PASSING COLD
FRONT. ASIDE FOR SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SO BIGGEST CHANGE WILL BE A
SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION FROM SOUTH TO WEST...850 TEMPS TAKING
ABOUT A 10 DEGREE TUMBLE. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL RETURN TO
NOVEMBER NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE MU40S MTNS TO LM50S SOUTHSIDE
VA AND NC PIEDMONT.

WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL ENSURE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT VCNTY OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. TRACK/STRENGTH
OF THIS FEATURE WILL DEPEND ON OVERALL RESPONSE TO DYNAMIC FORCING
FROM SHORT WAVE ENERGY ARRIVING VIA THE UPPER LEVEL TROF...MODELS
TRENDING STRONGER AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THIS FEATURE WITH TIME.
AT THE VERY LEAST CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. QUESTIONS IS WHETHER THE MOISTURE WILL BECOME DEEP
ENOUGH THIS FAR WEST FROM THE COAST FOR PRECIPITATION. ATTM IT
APPEAR GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR RAIN TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 29 LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. IF PRECIPITATION
EXTENDS ALL THE WAY TO THE BLUE RIDGE...TEMPERATURES MAY BE COLD
ENOUGH ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM TO HAVE SNOW OR A RAIN
SNOW MIX. UNTIL A BETTER FIX ON STORM TRACK CAN BE
ESTABLISHED...QPF WILL REMAIN IN QUESTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EST SATURDAY...

TWO DISTINCT SYSTEMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR BRING SOME PRECIPITATION
TO PARTS OF THE AREA DURING THIS SEGMENT OF THE FORECAST. THE FIRST
ITEM OF INTEREST IS A LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG A
BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT WILL BE POSITIONED ALONG THE COAST DURING THE
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE
STILL INCONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER...AND WITH THEIR OWN PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS REGARDING THE TIMING...TRACK AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS FEATURE. YESTERDAY...THE ECWMF WAS THE ONLY OPERATIONAL
MODEL RUN THAT HINTED AT PRECIPITATION SKIRTING THE EASTERN EXTENT
OF THE FORECAST AREA. TODAY...ITS SOLUTIONS IS MORE ROBUST ON THIS
SCENARIO WITH PRECIPITATION NOW THE WHOLE WAY WEST TO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. TODAY...THE GFS SOLUTION IS ONLY SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST AS
COMPARED TO THE ECWMF FROM YESTERDAY...BUT STILL...HAS ALL BUT OUR
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES WITH AT LEAST 0.01 PRECIP. THE
CANADIAN SOLUTION KEEPS THE SYSTEM FARTHER OFF THE COAST WITH NOT A
DROP OF PRECIPITATION REACHING THE FORECAST AREA. OUR FORECAST FROM
YESTERDAY REFLECTED A MODEL BLEND CONSENSUS THAT WAS MORE IN LINE
WITH THE WETTER ECWMF SOLUTION. GIVEN BOTH THE GFS AND ECWMF ARE
WETTER FOR THE REGION...AND THE MODEL BLEND CONSENSUS IS ALSO WETTER
ACROSS THE REGION...HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT IN THE FORECAST.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO REFLECT 50
PERCENT IN THE EAST...WITH 20 TO 25 PERCENT IN THE WEST. SURFACE AND
LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MAINLY A SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW
FORECAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY...WITH PRIMARILY RAIN
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR ARRIVING ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR MORE LIGHT
SNOW...BUT WITH THE SYSTEM EXITING...MUCH LESS COVERAGE.

OUT NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT ZIPS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION
DURING THE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECWMF SOLUTIONS HAVE CHANGED COMPARED TO THEIR -24 HOUR
COUNTERPARTS. PRIOR...MODEL SOLUTIONS WERE HINTING AT A MORE
PROLONGED CLOSED LOW STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
WITH A MORE PROFOUND SHOT OF COLDER AIR IN ITS WAKE. THE LATEST
SOLUTIONS OFFER A MORE GLANCING BLOW OF ENERGY ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH THE COLDER AIR NOT HAVING AS MUCH CHANCE TO MAKE THE
TURN SOUTH PRIOR TO ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE
OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WHILE THE FORECAST WILL STILL OFFER SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL BE A BIT MILDER THAN WHAT AS OFFERED IN THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM EST SUNDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN HANDLING OF UPCOMING
SYSTEM. STILL ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE AIRMASS MOISTENS UP AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE MID MISS VALLEY BRING A WARM FRONT ACROSS BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON AT MOST SITES
WITH LIGHT RAIN FOLLOWING CLOSE BEHIND. EXPECT PERIODS OF MDT AND
HEAVY RAIN FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...
ALONG WITH TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS. CONTINUING TO MONITOR POTENTIAL
LOW LVL WIND SHEAR AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO AOA 60KTS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WILL NOT MENTION IN THIS PACKAGE BUT WILL INCLUDE WITH THE
12Z ISSUANCE IF NEEDED.

LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND
GUSTY SUNDAY. WINDS AT BLF MAY STAY UP A BIT TONIGHT AS
THE INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AND WARM FRONT START TO
BE FELT.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

RAIN AND WIND CONTINUE WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT.
A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR DURING MONDAY OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A
DRY SLOT DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE EXITING FRONT FROM SUNDAY AND THE
NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. MONDAY INTO TUESDAY LOOK TO FEATURE
QUITE A BIT OF WIND. NW FLOW INTO MAY KEEP SUB VFR CIGS INTO BLF
AND POSSIBLE LWB...WITH VFR TO THE EAST. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
WHICH MAY BRING WINTRY PRECIP TO THE AREA ALONG WITH SUB VFR AT
ALL SITES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 215 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WILL BE OUT
OF SERVICE UNTIL PARTS ARRIVE TO REPLACE THE SENSOR. UNTIL THEN
THE VISIBILITY WILL ONLY BE REPORTED WHEN THE CONTROL TOWER IS
STAFFED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     VAZ007-009.
NC...NONE.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     WVZ042.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...KK/MBS/WP
EQUIPMENT...RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 230943
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
443 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD RAIN INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT...AND WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION
AND OTHER HIGH ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH TUESDAY...RETURNING TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL STORM TO
IMPACT PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EST SUNDAY...

EVERYTHING SEEMS TO BE UNFOLDING AS ADVERTISED AS PCPN TO OUR SOUTH
IS ADVANCING TOWARD THE REGION AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT ATTACHED TO A
DEVELOPING LOW IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DRY AIR WILL HINDER PROGRESS
OF PCPN AS IT ENTERS THE REGION...BUT EXPECT IT WILL PASS THE VA/NC
LINE DURING THE MORNING AND OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. PCPN WILL BE BIASED WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT AND LESSER AMOUNTS AS YOU GO FURTHER WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

THE BIGGEST CONCERN THROUGH THE NEAR TERM IS THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL SELY
JET WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PEAK AOA 70KTS JUST TO OUR WEST ROUGHLY FROM 5PM TO
1AM. THE COUNTIES OF TAZEWELL AND SMYTH IN VA AND MERCER IS WV ARE KNOWN TO
BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO STRONG WINDS TRANSLATING TO LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THIS TYPE
OF SITUATION SO WILL RAISE A WIND ADVSY FOR THESE LOCATIONS IN ANTICIPATION
OF GUSTS AROUND 50MPH. HOWEVER...EXPECTING WINDS NOT TOO FAR BELOW CRITERIA
FOR OTHER AREAS OF THE WESTERN SLOPES SO ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED IF
THE SITUATION UNFOLDS WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS.

ONCE THE WARM FRONT SURGES THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT WILL
WORK IN FROM THE WEST AND SHOULD RAPIDLY TAPER PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EST SUNDAY...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL 500H TROUGH WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
CONUS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH COOLER AIR REMAINING WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY...THEN ADVECTING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES A DRY COLD FRONT OVER AND EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE PERIOD. BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL THEN SET-UP
ALONG THE EAST COAST AND WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF STREAM TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE
NORTHEAST NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY.

IN THE WAKE OF SUNDAY NIGHTS WARM FRONTAL RAIN...FORECAST AREA
WILL BE IN THE DRY SLOT...WARM SECTOR SOUTHERLY WINDS PROVIDING A
BREEZY BUT MILD DAY MONDAY. 1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES OF
565-570DM AND 850H TEMPS OF +10 DEG C SUPPORT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S MONDAY...POSSIBLY TESTING THE LOWER
70S ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VA AND THE PIEDMONT. UNTIL SURFACE FRONT
CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE DAY...FORECAST AREA SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR/DRY SLOT WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THICKNESSES DROP BEHIND PASSING COLD
FRONT. ASIDE FOR SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SO BIGGEST CHANGE WILL BE A
SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION FROM SOUTH TO WEST...850 TEMPS TAKING
ABOUT A 10 DEGREE TUMBLE. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL RETURN TO
NOVEMBER NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE MU40S MTNS TO LM50S SOUTHSIDE
VA AND NC PIEDMONT.

WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL ENSURE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT VCNTY OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. TRACK/STRENGTH
OF THIS FEATURE WILL DEPEND ON OVERALL RESPONSE TO DYNAMIC FORCING
FROM SHORT WAVE ENERGY ARRIVING VIA THE UPPER LEVEL TROF...MODELS
TRENDING STRONGER AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THIS FEATURE WITH TIME.
AT THE VERY LEAST CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. QUESTIONS IS WHETHER THE MOISTURE WILL BECOME DEEP
ENOUGH THIS FAR WEST FROM THE COAST FOR PRECIPITATION. ATTM IT
APPEAR GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR RAIN TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 29 LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. IF PRECIPITATION
EXTENDS ALL THE WAY TO THE BLUE RIDGE...TEMPERATURES MAY BE COLD
ENOUGH ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM TO HAVE SNOW OR A RAIN
SNOW MIX. UNTIL A BETTER FIX ON STORM TRACK CAN BE
ESTABLISHED...QPF WILL REMAIN IN QUESTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EST SATURDAY...

TWO DISTINCT SYSTEMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR BRING SOME PRECIPITATION
TO PARTS OF THE AREA DURING THIS SEGMENT OF THE FORECAST. THE FIRST
ITEM OF INTEREST IS A LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG A
BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT WILL BE POSITIONED ALONG THE COAST DURING THE
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE
STILL INCONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER...AND WITH THEIR OWN PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS REGARDING THE TIMING...TRACK AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS FEATURE. YESTERDAY...THE ECWMF WAS THE ONLY OPERATIONAL
MODEL RUN THAT HINTED AT PRECIPITATION SKIRTING THE EASTERN EXTENT
OF THE FORECAST AREA. TODAY...ITS SOLUTIONS IS MORE ROBUST ON THIS
SCENARIO WITH PRECIPITATION NOW THE WHOLE WAY WEST TO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. TODAY...THE GFS SOLUTION IS ONLY SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST AS
COMPARED TO THE ECWMF FROM YESTERDAY...BUT STILL...HAS ALL BUT OUR
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES WITH AT LEAST 0.01 PRECIP. THE
CANADIAN SOLUTION KEEPS THE SYSTEM FARTHER OFF THE COAST WITH NOT A
DROP OF PRECIPITATION REACHING THE FORECAST AREA. OUR FORECAST FROM
YESTERDAY REFLECTED A MODEL BLEND CONSENSUS THAT WAS MORE IN LINE
WITH THE WETTER ECWMF SOLUTION. GIVEN BOTH THE GFS AND ECWMF ARE
WETTER FOR THE REGION...AND THE MODEL BLEND CONSENSUS IS ALSO WETTER
ACROSS THE REGION...HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT IN THE FORECAST.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO REFLECT 50
PERCENT IN THE EAST...WITH 20 TO 25 PERCENT IN THE WEST. SURFACE AND
LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MAINLY A SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW
FORECAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY...WITH PRIMARILY RAIN
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR ARRIVING ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR MORE LIGHT
SNOW...BUT WITH THE SYSTEM EXITING...MUCH LESS COVERAGE.

OUT NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT ZIPS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION
DURING THE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECWMF SOLUTIONS HAVE CHANGED COMPARED TO THEIR -24 HOUR
COUNTERPARTS. PRIOR...MODEL SOLUTIONS WERE HINTING AT A MORE
PROLONGED CLOSED LOW STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
WITH A MORE PROFOUND SHOT OF COLDER AIR IN ITS WAKE. THE LATEST
SOLUTIONS OFFER A MORE GLANCING BLOW OF ENERGY ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH THE COLDER AIR NOT HAVING AS MUCH CHANCE TO MAKE THE
TURN SOUTH PRIOR TO ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE
OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WHILE THE FORECAST WILL STILL OFFER SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL BE A BIT MILDER THAN WHAT AS OFFERED IN THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM EST SUNDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN HANDLING OF UPCOMING
SYSTEM. STILL ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE AIRMASS MOISTENS UP AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE MID MISS VALLEY BRING A WARM FRONT ACROSS BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON AT MOST SITES
WITH LIGHT RAIN FOLLOWING CLOSE BEHIND. EXPECT PERIODS OF MDT AND
HEAVY RAIN FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...
ALONG WITH TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS. CONTINUING TO MONITOR POTENTIAL
LOW LVL WIND SHEAR AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO AOA 60KTS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WILL NOT MENTION IN THIS PACKAGE BUT WILL INCLUDE WITH THE
12Z ISSUANCE IF NEEDED.

LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND
GUSTY SUNDAY. WINDS AT BLF MAY STAY UP A BIT TONIGHT AS
THE INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AND WARM FRONT START TO
BE FELT.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

RAIN AND WIND CONTINUE WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT.
A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR DURING MONDAY OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A
DRY SLOT DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE EXITING FRONT FROM SUNDAY AND THE
NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. MONDAY INTO TUESDAY LOOK TO FEATURE
QUITE A BIT OF WIND. NW FLOW INTO MAY KEEP SUB VFR CIGS INTO BLF
AND POSSIBLE LWB...WITH VFR TO THE EAST. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
WHICH MAY BRING WINTRY PRECIP TO THE AREA ALONG WITH SUB VFR AT
ALL SITES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 215 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WILL BE OUT
OF SERVICE UNTIL PARTS ARRIVE TO REPLACE THE SENSOR. UNTIL THEN
THE VISIBILITY WILL ONLY BE REPORTED WHEN THE CONTROL TOWER IS
STAFFED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     VAZ007-009.
NC...NONE.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     WVZ042.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...KK/MBS/WP
EQUIPMENT...RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 230943
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
443 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD RAIN INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT...AND WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION
AND OTHER HIGH ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH TUESDAY...RETURNING TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL STORM TO
IMPACT PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EST SUNDAY...

EVERYTHING SEEMS TO BE UNFOLDING AS ADVERTISED AS PCPN TO OUR SOUTH
IS ADVANCING TOWARD THE REGION AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT ATTACHED TO A
DEVELOPING LOW IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DRY AIR WILL HINDER PROGRESS
OF PCPN AS IT ENTERS THE REGION...BUT EXPECT IT WILL PASS THE VA/NC
LINE DURING THE MORNING AND OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. PCPN WILL BE BIASED WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT AND LESSER AMOUNTS AS YOU GO FURTHER WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

THE BIGGEST CONCERN THROUGH THE NEAR TERM IS THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL SELY
JET WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PEAK AOA 70KTS JUST TO OUR WEST ROUGHLY FROM 5PM TO
1AM. THE COUNTIES OF TAZEWELL AND SMYTH IN VA AND MERCER IS WV ARE KNOWN TO
BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO STRONG WINDS TRANSLATING TO LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THIS TYPE
OF SITUATION SO WILL RAISE A WIND ADVSY FOR THESE LOCATIONS IN ANTICIPATION
OF GUSTS AROUND 50MPH. HOWEVER...EXPECTING WINDS NOT TOO FAR BELOW CRITERIA
FOR OTHER AREAS OF THE WESTERN SLOPES SO ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED IF
THE SITUATION UNFOLDS WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS.

ONCE THE WARM FRONT SURGES THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT WILL
WORK IN FROM THE WEST AND SHOULD RAPIDLY TAPER PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EST SUNDAY...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL 500H TROUGH WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
CONUS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH COOLER AIR REMAINING WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY...THEN ADVECTING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES A DRY COLD FRONT OVER AND EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE PERIOD. BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL THEN SET-UP
ALONG THE EAST COAST AND WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF STREAM TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE
NORTHEAST NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY.

IN THE WAKE OF SUNDAY NIGHTS WARM FRONTAL RAIN...FORECAST AREA
WILL BE IN THE DRY SLOT...WARM SECTOR SOUTHERLY WINDS PROVIDING A
BREEZY BUT MILD DAY MONDAY. 1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES OF
565-570DM AND 850H TEMPS OF +10 DEG C SUPPORT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S MONDAY...POSSIBLY TESTING THE LOWER
70S ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VA AND THE PIEDMONT. UNTIL SURFACE FRONT
CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE DAY...FORECAST AREA SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR/DRY SLOT WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THICKNESSES DROP BEHIND PASSING COLD
FRONT. ASIDE FOR SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SO BIGGEST CHANGE WILL BE A
SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION FROM SOUTH TO WEST...850 TEMPS TAKING
ABOUT A 10 DEGREE TUMBLE. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL RETURN TO
NOVEMBER NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE MU40S MTNS TO LM50S SOUTHSIDE
VA AND NC PIEDMONT.

WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL ENSURE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT VCNTY OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. TRACK/STRENGTH
OF THIS FEATURE WILL DEPEND ON OVERALL RESPONSE TO DYNAMIC FORCING
FROM SHORT WAVE ENERGY ARRIVING VIA THE UPPER LEVEL TROF...MODELS
TRENDING STRONGER AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THIS FEATURE WITH TIME.
AT THE VERY LEAST CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. QUESTIONS IS WHETHER THE MOISTURE WILL BECOME DEEP
ENOUGH THIS FAR WEST FROM THE COAST FOR PRECIPITATION. ATTM IT
APPEAR GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR RAIN TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 29 LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. IF PRECIPITATION
EXTENDS ALL THE WAY TO THE BLUE RIDGE...TEMPERATURES MAY BE COLD
ENOUGH ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM TO HAVE SNOW OR A RAIN
SNOW MIX. UNTIL A BETTER FIX ON STORM TRACK CAN BE
ESTABLISHED...QPF WILL REMAIN IN QUESTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EST SATURDAY...

TWO DISTINCT SYSTEMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR BRING SOME PRECIPITATION
TO PARTS OF THE AREA DURING THIS SEGMENT OF THE FORECAST. THE FIRST
ITEM OF INTEREST IS A LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG A
BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT WILL BE POSITIONED ALONG THE COAST DURING THE
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE
STILL INCONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER...AND WITH THEIR OWN PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS REGARDING THE TIMING...TRACK AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS FEATURE. YESTERDAY...THE ECWMF WAS THE ONLY OPERATIONAL
MODEL RUN THAT HINTED AT PRECIPITATION SKIRTING THE EASTERN EXTENT
OF THE FORECAST AREA. TODAY...ITS SOLUTIONS IS MORE ROBUST ON THIS
SCENARIO WITH PRECIPITATION NOW THE WHOLE WAY WEST TO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. TODAY...THE GFS SOLUTION IS ONLY SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST AS
COMPARED TO THE ECWMF FROM YESTERDAY...BUT STILL...HAS ALL BUT OUR
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES WITH AT LEAST 0.01 PRECIP. THE
CANADIAN SOLUTION KEEPS THE SYSTEM FARTHER OFF THE COAST WITH NOT A
DROP OF PRECIPITATION REACHING THE FORECAST AREA. OUR FORECAST FROM
YESTERDAY REFLECTED A MODEL BLEND CONSENSUS THAT WAS MORE IN LINE
WITH THE WETTER ECWMF SOLUTION. GIVEN BOTH THE GFS AND ECWMF ARE
WETTER FOR THE REGION...AND THE MODEL BLEND CONSENSUS IS ALSO WETTER
ACROSS THE REGION...HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT IN THE FORECAST.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO REFLECT 50
PERCENT IN THE EAST...WITH 20 TO 25 PERCENT IN THE WEST. SURFACE AND
LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MAINLY A SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW
FORECAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY...WITH PRIMARILY RAIN
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR ARRIVING ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR MORE LIGHT
SNOW...BUT WITH THE SYSTEM EXITING...MUCH LESS COVERAGE.

OUT NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT ZIPS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION
DURING THE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECWMF SOLUTIONS HAVE CHANGED COMPARED TO THEIR -24 HOUR
COUNTERPARTS. PRIOR...MODEL SOLUTIONS WERE HINTING AT A MORE
PROLONGED CLOSED LOW STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
WITH A MORE PROFOUND SHOT OF COLDER AIR IN ITS WAKE. THE LATEST
SOLUTIONS OFFER A MORE GLANCING BLOW OF ENERGY ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH THE COLDER AIR NOT HAVING AS MUCH CHANCE TO MAKE THE
TURN SOUTH PRIOR TO ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE
OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WHILE THE FORECAST WILL STILL OFFER SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL BE A BIT MILDER THAN WHAT AS OFFERED IN THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM EST SUNDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN HANDLING OF UPCOMING
SYSTEM. STILL ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE AIRMASS MOISTENS UP AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE MID MISS VALLEY BRING A WARM FRONT ACROSS BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON AT MOST SITES
WITH LIGHT RAIN FOLLOWING CLOSE BEHIND. EXPECT PERIODS OF MDT AND
HEAVY RAIN FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...
ALONG WITH TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS. CONTINUING TO MONITOR POTENTIAL
LOW LVL WIND SHEAR AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO AOA 60KTS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WILL NOT MENTION IN THIS PACKAGE BUT WILL INCLUDE WITH THE
12Z ISSUANCE IF NEEDED.

LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND
GUSTY SUNDAY. WINDS AT BLF MAY STAY UP A BIT TONIGHT AS
THE INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AND WARM FRONT START TO
BE FELT.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

RAIN AND WIND CONTINUE WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT.
A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR DURING MONDAY OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A
DRY SLOT DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE EXITING FRONT FROM SUNDAY AND THE
NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. MONDAY INTO TUESDAY LOOK TO FEATURE
QUITE A BIT OF WIND. NW FLOW INTO MAY KEEP SUB VFR CIGS INTO BLF
AND POSSIBLE LWB...WITH VFR TO THE EAST. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
WHICH MAY BRING WINTRY PRECIP TO THE AREA ALONG WITH SUB VFR AT
ALL SITES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 215 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WILL BE OUT
OF SERVICE UNTIL PARTS ARRIVE TO REPLACE THE SENSOR. UNTIL THEN
THE VISIBILITY WILL ONLY BE REPORTED WHEN THE CONTROL TOWER IS
STAFFED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     VAZ007-009.
NC...NONE.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     WVZ042.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...KK/MBS/WP
EQUIPMENT...RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 230943
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
443 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD RAIN INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT...AND WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION
AND OTHER HIGH ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH TUESDAY...RETURNING TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL STORM TO
IMPACT PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EST SUNDAY...

EVERYTHING SEEMS TO BE UNFOLDING AS ADVERTISED AS PCPN TO OUR SOUTH
IS ADVANCING TOWARD THE REGION AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT ATTACHED TO A
DEVELOPING LOW IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DRY AIR WILL HINDER PROGRESS
OF PCPN AS IT ENTERS THE REGION...BUT EXPECT IT WILL PASS THE VA/NC
LINE DURING THE MORNING AND OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. PCPN WILL BE BIASED WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT AND LESSER AMOUNTS AS YOU GO FURTHER WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

THE BIGGEST CONCERN THROUGH THE NEAR TERM IS THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL SELY
JET WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PEAK AOA 70KTS JUST TO OUR WEST ROUGHLY FROM 5PM TO
1AM. THE COUNTIES OF TAZEWELL AND SMYTH IN VA AND MERCER IS WV ARE KNOWN TO
BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO STRONG WINDS TRANSLATING TO LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THIS TYPE
OF SITUATION SO WILL RAISE A WIND ADVSY FOR THESE LOCATIONS IN ANTICIPATION
OF GUSTS AROUND 50MPH. HOWEVER...EXPECTING WINDS NOT TOO FAR BELOW CRITERIA
FOR OTHER AREAS OF THE WESTERN SLOPES SO ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED IF
THE SITUATION UNFOLDS WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS.

ONCE THE WARM FRONT SURGES THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT WILL
WORK IN FROM THE WEST AND SHOULD RAPIDLY TAPER PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EST SUNDAY...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL 500H TROUGH WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
CONUS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH COOLER AIR REMAINING WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY...THEN ADVECTING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES A DRY COLD FRONT OVER AND EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE PERIOD. BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL THEN SET-UP
ALONG THE EAST COAST AND WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF STREAM TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE
NORTHEAST NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY.

IN THE WAKE OF SUNDAY NIGHTS WARM FRONTAL RAIN...FORECAST AREA
WILL BE IN THE DRY SLOT...WARM SECTOR SOUTHERLY WINDS PROVIDING A
BREEZY BUT MILD DAY MONDAY. 1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES OF
565-570DM AND 850H TEMPS OF +10 DEG C SUPPORT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S MONDAY...POSSIBLY TESTING THE LOWER
70S ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VA AND THE PIEDMONT. UNTIL SURFACE FRONT
CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE DAY...FORECAST AREA SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR/DRY SLOT WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THICKNESSES DROP BEHIND PASSING COLD
FRONT. ASIDE FOR SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SO BIGGEST CHANGE WILL BE A
SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION FROM SOUTH TO WEST...850 TEMPS TAKING
ABOUT A 10 DEGREE TUMBLE. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL RETURN TO
NOVEMBER NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE MU40S MTNS TO LM50S SOUTHSIDE
VA AND NC PIEDMONT.

WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL ENSURE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT VCNTY OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. TRACK/STRENGTH
OF THIS FEATURE WILL DEPEND ON OVERALL RESPONSE TO DYNAMIC FORCING
FROM SHORT WAVE ENERGY ARRIVING VIA THE UPPER LEVEL TROF...MODELS
TRENDING STRONGER AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THIS FEATURE WITH TIME.
AT THE VERY LEAST CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. QUESTIONS IS WHETHER THE MOISTURE WILL BECOME DEEP
ENOUGH THIS FAR WEST FROM THE COAST FOR PRECIPITATION. ATTM IT
APPEAR GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR RAIN TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 29 LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. IF PRECIPITATION
EXTENDS ALL THE WAY TO THE BLUE RIDGE...TEMPERATURES MAY BE COLD
ENOUGH ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM TO HAVE SNOW OR A RAIN
SNOW MIX. UNTIL A BETTER FIX ON STORM TRACK CAN BE
ESTABLISHED...QPF WILL REMAIN IN QUESTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EST SATURDAY...

TWO DISTINCT SYSTEMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR BRING SOME PRECIPITATION
TO PARTS OF THE AREA DURING THIS SEGMENT OF THE FORECAST. THE FIRST
ITEM OF INTEREST IS A LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG A
BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT WILL BE POSITIONED ALONG THE COAST DURING THE
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE
STILL INCONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER...AND WITH THEIR OWN PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS REGARDING THE TIMING...TRACK AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS FEATURE. YESTERDAY...THE ECWMF WAS THE ONLY OPERATIONAL
MODEL RUN THAT HINTED AT PRECIPITATION SKIRTING THE EASTERN EXTENT
OF THE FORECAST AREA. TODAY...ITS SOLUTIONS IS MORE ROBUST ON THIS
SCENARIO WITH PRECIPITATION NOW THE WHOLE WAY WEST TO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. TODAY...THE GFS SOLUTION IS ONLY SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST AS
COMPARED TO THE ECWMF FROM YESTERDAY...BUT STILL...HAS ALL BUT OUR
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES WITH AT LEAST 0.01 PRECIP. THE
CANADIAN SOLUTION KEEPS THE SYSTEM FARTHER OFF THE COAST WITH NOT A
DROP OF PRECIPITATION REACHING THE FORECAST AREA. OUR FORECAST FROM
YESTERDAY REFLECTED A MODEL BLEND CONSENSUS THAT WAS MORE IN LINE
WITH THE WETTER ECWMF SOLUTION. GIVEN BOTH THE GFS AND ECWMF ARE
WETTER FOR THE REGION...AND THE MODEL BLEND CONSENSUS IS ALSO WETTER
ACROSS THE REGION...HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT IN THE FORECAST.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO REFLECT 50
PERCENT IN THE EAST...WITH 20 TO 25 PERCENT IN THE WEST. SURFACE AND
LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MAINLY A SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW
FORECAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY...WITH PRIMARILY RAIN
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR ARRIVING ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR MORE LIGHT
SNOW...BUT WITH THE SYSTEM EXITING...MUCH LESS COVERAGE.

OUT NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT ZIPS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION
DURING THE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECWMF SOLUTIONS HAVE CHANGED COMPARED TO THEIR -24 HOUR
COUNTERPARTS. PRIOR...MODEL SOLUTIONS WERE HINTING AT A MORE
PROLONGED CLOSED LOW STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
WITH A MORE PROFOUND SHOT OF COLDER AIR IN ITS WAKE. THE LATEST
SOLUTIONS OFFER A MORE GLANCING BLOW OF ENERGY ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH THE COLDER AIR NOT HAVING AS MUCH CHANCE TO MAKE THE
TURN SOUTH PRIOR TO ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE
OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WHILE THE FORECAST WILL STILL OFFER SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL BE A BIT MILDER THAN WHAT AS OFFERED IN THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM EST SUNDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN HANDLING OF UPCOMING
SYSTEM. STILL ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE AIRMASS MOISTENS UP AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE MID MISS VALLEY BRING A WARM FRONT ACROSS BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON AT MOST SITES
WITH LIGHT RAIN FOLLOWING CLOSE BEHIND. EXPECT PERIODS OF MDT AND
HEAVY RAIN FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...
ALONG WITH TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS. CONTINUING TO MONITOR POTENTIAL
LOW LVL WIND SHEAR AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO AOA 60KTS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WILL NOT MENTION IN THIS PACKAGE BUT WILL INCLUDE WITH THE
12Z ISSUANCE IF NEEDED.

LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND
GUSTY SUNDAY. WINDS AT BLF MAY STAY UP A BIT TONIGHT AS
THE INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AND WARM FRONT START TO
BE FELT.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

RAIN AND WIND CONTINUE WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT.
A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR DURING MONDAY OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A
DRY SLOT DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE EXITING FRONT FROM SUNDAY AND THE
NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. MONDAY INTO TUESDAY LOOK TO FEATURE
QUITE A BIT OF WIND. NW FLOW INTO MAY KEEP SUB VFR CIGS INTO BLF
AND POSSIBLE LWB...WITH VFR TO THE EAST. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
WHICH MAY BRING WINTRY PRECIP TO THE AREA ALONG WITH SUB VFR AT
ALL SITES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 215 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WILL BE OUT
OF SERVICE UNTIL PARTS ARRIVE TO REPLACE THE SENSOR. UNTIL THEN
THE VISIBILITY WILL ONLY BE REPORTED WHEN THE CONTROL TOWER IS
STAFFED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     VAZ007-009.
NC...NONE.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     WVZ042.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...KK/MBS/WP
EQUIPMENT...RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 230943
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
443 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD RAIN INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT...AND WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION
AND OTHER HIGH ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH TUESDAY...RETURNING TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL STORM TO
IMPACT PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EST SUNDAY...

EVERYTHING SEEMS TO BE UNFOLDING AS ADVERTISED AS PCPN TO OUR SOUTH
IS ADVANCING TOWARD THE REGION AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT ATTACHED TO A
DEVELOPING LOW IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DRY AIR WILL HINDER PROGRESS
OF PCPN AS IT ENTERS THE REGION...BUT EXPECT IT WILL PASS THE VA/NC
LINE DURING THE MORNING AND OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. PCPN WILL BE BIASED WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT AND LESSER AMOUNTS AS YOU GO FURTHER WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

THE BIGGEST CONCERN THROUGH THE NEAR TERM IS THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL SELY
JET WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PEAK AOA 70KTS JUST TO OUR WEST ROUGHLY FROM 5PM TO
1AM. THE COUNTIES OF TAZEWELL AND SMYTH IN VA AND MERCER IS WV ARE KNOWN TO
BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO STRONG WINDS TRANSLATING TO LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THIS TYPE
OF SITUATION SO WILL RAISE A WIND ADVSY FOR THESE LOCATIONS IN ANTICIPATION
OF GUSTS AROUND 50MPH. HOWEVER...EXPECTING WINDS NOT TOO FAR BELOW CRITERIA
FOR OTHER AREAS OF THE WESTERN SLOPES SO ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED IF
THE SITUATION UNFOLDS WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS.

ONCE THE WARM FRONT SURGES THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT WILL
WORK IN FROM THE WEST AND SHOULD RAPIDLY TAPER PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EST SUNDAY...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL 500H TROUGH WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
CONUS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH COOLER AIR REMAINING WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY...THEN ADVECTING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES A DRY COLD FRONT OVER AND EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE PERIOD. BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL THEN SET-UP
ALONG THE EAST COAST AND WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF STREAM TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE
NORTHEAST NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY.

IN THE WAKE OF SUNDAY NIGHTS WARM FRONTAL RAIN...FORECAST AREA
WILL BE IN THE DRY SLOT...WARM SECTOR SOUTHERLY WINDS PROVIDING A
BREEZY BUT MILD DAY MONDAY. 1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES OF
565-570DM AND 850H TEMPS OF +10 DEG C SUPPORT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S MONDAY...POSSIBLY TESTING THE LOWER
70S ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VA AND THE PIEDMONT. UNTIL SURFACE FRONT
CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE DAY...FORECAST AREA SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR/DRY SLOT WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THICKNESSES DROP BEHIND PASSING COLD
FRONT. ASIDE FOR SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SO BIGGEST CHANGE WILL BE A
SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION FROM SOUTH TO WEST...850 TEMPS TAKING
ABOUT A 10 DEGREE TUMBLE. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL RETURN TO
NOVEMBER NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE MU40S MTNS TO LM50S SOUTHSIDE
VA AND NC PIEDMONT.

WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL ENSURE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT VCNTY OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. TRACK/STRENGTH
OF THIS FEATURE WILL DEPEND ON OVERALL RESPONSE TO DYNAMIC FORCING
FROM SHORT WAVE ENERGY ARRIVING VIA THE UPPER LEVEL TROF...MODELS
TRENDING STRONGER AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THIS FEATURE WITH TIME.
AT THE VERY LEAST CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. QUESTIONS IS WHETHER THE MOISTURE WILL BECOME DEEP
ENOUGH THIS FAR WEST FROM THE COAST FOR PRECIPITATION. ATTM IT
APPEAR GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR RAIN TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 29 LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. IF PRECIPITATION
EXTENDS ALL THE WAY TO THE BLUE RIDGE...TEMPERATURES MAY BE COLD
ENOUGH ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM TO HAVE SNOW OR A RAIN
SNOW MIX. UNTIL A BETTER FIX ON STORM TRACK CAN BE
ESTABLISHED...QPF WILL REMAIN IN QUESTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EST SATURDAY...

TWO DISTINCT SYSTEMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR BRING SOME PRECIPITATION
TO PARTS OF THE AREA DURING THIS SEGMENT OF THE FORECAST. THE FIRST
ITEM OF INTEREST IS A LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG A
BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT WILL BE POSITIONED ALONG THE COAST DURING THE
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE
STILL INCONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER...AND WITH THEIR OWN PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS REGARDING THE TIMING...TRACK AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS FEATURE. YESTERDAY...THE ECWMF WAS THE ONLY OPERATIONAL
MODEL RUN THAT HINTED AT PRECIPITATION SKIRTING THE EASTERN EXTENT
OF THE FORECAST AREA. TODAY...ITS SOLUTIONS IS MORE ROBUST ON THIS
SCENARIO WITH PRECIPITATION NOW THE WHOLE WAY WEST TO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. TODAY...THE GFS SOLUTION IS ONLY SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST AS
COMPARED TO THE ECWMF FROM YESTERDAY...BUT STILL...HAS ALL BUT OUR
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES WITH AT LEAST 0.01 PRECIP. THE
CANADIAN SOLUTION KEEPS THE SYSTEM FARTHER OFF THE COAST WITH NOT A
DROP OF PRECIPITATION REACHING THE FORECAST AREA. OUR FORECAST FROM
YESTERDAY REFLECTED A MODEL BLEND CONSENSUS THAT WAS MORE IN LINE
WITH THE WETTER ECWMF SOLUTION. GIVEN BOTH THE GFS AND ECWMF ARE
WETTER FOR THE REGION...AND THE MODEL BLEND CONSENSUS IS ALSO WETTER
ACROSS THE REGION...HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT IN THE FORECAST.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO REFLECT 50
PERCENT IN THE EAST...WITH 20 TO 25 PERCENT IN THE WEST. SURFACE AND
LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MAINLY A SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW
FORECAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY...WITH PRIMARILY RAIN
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR ARRIVING ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR MORE LIGHT
SNOW...BUT WITH THE SYSTEM EXITING...MUCH LESS COVERAGE.

OUT NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT ZIPS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION
DURING THE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECWMF SOLUTIONS HAVE CHANGED COMPARED TO THEIR -24 HOUR
COUNTERPARTS. PRIOR...MODEL SOLUTIONS WERE HINTING AT A MORE
PROLONGED CLOSED LOW STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
WITH A MORE PROFOUND SHOT OF COLDER AIR IN ITS WAKE. THE LATEST
SOLUTIONS OFFER A MORE GLANCING BLOW OF ENERGY ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH THE COLDER AIR NOT HAVING AS MUCH CHANCE TO MAKE THE
TURN SOUTH PRIOR TO ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE
OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WHILE THE FORECAST WILL STILL OFFER SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL BE A BIT MILDER THAN WHAT AS OFFERED IN THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM EST SUNDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN HANDLING OF UPCOMING
SYSTEM. STILL ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE AIRMASS MOISTENS UP AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE MID MISS VALLEY BRING A WARM FRONT ACROSS BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON AT MOST SITES
WITH LIGHT RAIN FOLLOWING CLOSE BEHIND. EXPECT PERIODS OF MDT AND
HEAVY RAIN FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...
ALONG WITH TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS. CONTINUING TO MONITOR POTENTIAL
LOW LVL WIND SHEAR AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO AOA 60KTS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WILL NOT MENTION IN THIS PACKAGE BUT WILL INCLUDE WITH THE
12Z ISSUANCE IF NEEDED.

LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND
GUSTY SUNDAY. WINDS AT BLF MAY STAY UP A BIT TONIGHT AS
THE INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AND WARM FRONT START TO
BE FELT.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

RAIN AND WIND CONTINUE WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT.
A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR DURING MONDAY OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A
DRY SLOT DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE EXITING FRONT FROM SUNDAY AND THE
NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. MONDAY INTO TUESDAY LOOK TO FEATURE
QUITE A BIT OF WIND. NW FLOW INTO MAY KEEP SUB VFR CIGS INTO BLF
AND POSSIBLE LWB...WITH VFR TO THE EAST. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
WHICH MAY BRING WINTRY PRECIP TO THE AREA ALONG WITH SUB VFR AT
ALL SITES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 215 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WILL BE OUT
OF SERVICE UNTIL PARTS ARRIVE TO REPLACE THE SENSOR. UNTIL THEN
THE VISIBILITY WILL ONLY BE REPORTED WHEN THE CONTROL TOWER IS
STAFFED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     VAZ007-009.
NC...NONE.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     WVZ042.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...KK/MBS/WP
EQUIPMENT...RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 230943
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
443 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD RAIN INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT...AND WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION
AND OTHER HIGH ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH TUESDAY...RETURNING TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL STORM TO
IMPACT PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EST SUNDAY...

EVERYTHING SEEMS TO BE UNFOLDING AS ADVERTISED AS PCPN TO OUR SOUTH
IS ADVANCING TOWARD THE REGION AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT ATTACHED TO A
DEVELOPING LOW IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DRY AIR WILL HINDER PROGRESS
OF PCPN AS IT ENTERS THE REGION...BUT EXPECT IT WILL PASS THE VA/NC
LINE DURING THE MORNING AND OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. PCPN WILL BE BIASED WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT AND LESSER AMOUNTS AS YOU GO FURTHER WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

THE BIGGEST CONCERN THROUGH THE NEAR TERM IS THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL SELY
JET WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PEAK AOA 70KTS JUST TO OUR WEST ROUGHLY FROM 5PM TO
1AM. THE COUNTIES OF TAZEWELL AND SMYTH IN VA AND MERCER IS WV ARE KNOWN TO
BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO STRONG WINDS TRANSLATING TO LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THIS TYPE
OF SITUATION SO WILL RAISE A WIND ADVSY FOR THESE LOCATIONS IN ANTICIPATION
OF GUSTS AROUND 50MPH. HOWEVER...EXPECTING WINDS NOT TOO FAR BELOW CRITERIA
FOR OTHER AREAS OF THE WESTERN SLOPES SO ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED IF
THE SITUATION UNFOLDS WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS.

ONCE THE WARM FRONT SURGES THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT WILL
WORK IN FROM THE WEST AND SHOULD RAPIDLY TAPER PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EST SUNDAY...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL 500H TROUGH WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
CONUS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH COOLER AIR REMAINING WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY...THEN ADVECTING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES A DRY COLD FRONT OVER AND EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE PERIOD. BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL THEN SET-UP
ALONG THE EAST COAST AND WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF STREAM TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE
NORTHEAST NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY.

IN THE WAKE OF SUNDAY NIGHTS WARM FRONTAL RAIN...FORECAST AREA
WILL BE IN THE DRY SLOT...WARM SECTOR SOUTHERLY WINDS PROVIDING A
BREEZY BUT MILD DAY MONDAY. 1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES OF
565-570DM AND 850H TEMPS OF +10 DEG C SUPPORT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S MONDAY...POSSIBLY TESTING THE LOWER
70S ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VA AND THE PIEDMONT. UNTIL SURFACE FRONT
CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE DAY...FORECAST AREA SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR/DRY SLOT WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THICKNESSES DROP BEHIND PASSING COLD
FRONT. ASIDE FOR SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SO BIGGEST CHANGE WILL BE A
SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION FROM SOUTH TO WEST...850 TEMPS TAKING
ABOUT A 10 DEGREE TUMBLE. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL RETURN TO
NOVEMBER NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE MU40S MTNS TO LM50S SOUTHSIDE
VA AND NC PIEDMONT.

WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL ENSURE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT VCNTY OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. TRACK/STRENGTH
OF THIS FEATURE WILL DEPEND ON OVERALL RESPONSE TO DYNAMIC FORCING
FROM SHORT WAVE ENERGY ARRIVING VIA THE UPPER LEVEL TROF...MODELS
TRENDING STRONGER AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THIS FEATURE WITH TIME.
AT THE VERY LEAST CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. QUESTIONS IS WHETHER THE MOISTURE WILL BECOME DEEP
ENOUGH THIS FAR WEST FROM THE COAST FOR PRECIPITATION. ATTM IT
APPEAR GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR RAIN TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 29 LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. IF PRECIPITATION
EXTENDS ALL THE WAY TO THE BLUE RIDGE...TEMPERATURES MAY BE COLD
ENOUGH ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM TO HAVE SNOW OR A RAIN
SNOW MIX. UNTIL A BETTER FIX ON STORM TRACK CAN BE
ESTABLISHED...QPF WILL REMAIN IN QUESTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EST SATURDAY...

TWO DISTINCT SYSTEMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR BRING SOME PRECIPITATION
TO PARTS OF THE AREA DURING THIS SEGMENT OF THE FORECAST. THE FIRST
ITEM OF INTEREST IS A LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG A
BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT WILL BE POSITIONED ALONG THE COAST DURING THE
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE
STILL INCONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER...AND WITH THEIR OWN PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS REGARDING THE TIMING...TRACK AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS FEATURE. YESTERDAY...THE ECWMF WAS THE ONLY OPERATIONAL
MODEL RUN THAT HINTED AT PRECIPITATION SKIRTING THE EASTERN EXTENT
OF THE FORECAST AREA. TODAY...ITS SOLUTIONS IS MORE ROBUST ON THIS
SCENARIO WITH PRECIPITATION NOW THE WHOLE WAY WEST TO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. TODAY...THE GFS SOLUTION IS ONLY SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST AS
COMPARED TO THE ECWMF FROM YESTERDAY...BUT STILL...HAS ALL BUT OUR
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES WITH AT LEAST 0.01 PRECIP. THE
CANADIAN SOLUTION KEEPS THE SYSTEM FARTHER OFF THE COAST WITH NOT A
DROP OF PRECIPITATION REACHING THE FORECAST AREA. OUR FORECAST FROM
YESTERDAY REFLECTED A MODEL BLEND CONSENSUS THAT WAS MORE IN LINE
WITH THE WETTER ECWMF SOLUTION. GIVEN BOTH THE GFS AND ECWMF ARE
WETTER FOR THE REGION...AND THE MODEL BLEND CONSENSUS IS ALSO WETTER
ACROSS THE REGION...HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT IN THE FORECAST.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO REFLECT 50
PERCENT IN THE EAST...WITH 20 TO 25 PERCENT IN THE WEST. SURFACE AND
LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MAINLY A SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW
FORECAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY...WITH PRIMARILY RAIN
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR ARRIVING ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR MORE LIGHT
SNOW...BUT WITH THE SYSTEM EXITING...MUCH LESS COVERAGE.

OUT NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT ZIPS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION
DURING THE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECWMF SOLUTIONS HAVE CHANGED COMPARED TO THEIR -24 HOUR
COUNTERPARTS. PRIOR...MODEL SOLUTIONS WERE HINTING AT A MORE
PROLONGED CLOSED LOW STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
WITH A MORE PROFOUND SHOT OF COLDER AIR IN ITS WAKE. THE LATEST
SOLUTIONS OFFER A MORE GLANCING BLOW OF ENERGY ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH THE COLDER AIR NOT HAVING AS MUCH CHANCE TO MAKE THE
TURN SOUTH PRIOR TO ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE
OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WHILE THE FORECAST WILL STILL OFFER SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL BE A BIT MILDER THAN WHAT AS OFFERED IN THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM EST SUNDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN HANDLING OF UPCOMING
SYSTEM. STILL ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE AIRMASS MOISTENS UP AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE MID MISS VALLEY BRING A WARM FRONT ACROSS BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON AT MOST SITES
WITH LIGHT RAIN FOLLOWING CLOSE BEHIND. EXPECT PERIODS OF MDT AND
HEAVY RAIN FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...
ALONG WITH TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS. CONTINUING TO MONITOR POTENTIAL
LOW LVL WIND SHEAR AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO AOA 60KTS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WILL NOT MENTION IN THIS PACKAGE BUT WILL INCLUDE WITH THE
12Z ISSUANCE IF NEEDED.

LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND
GUSTY SUNDAY. WINDS AT BLF MAY STAY UP A BIT TONIGHT AS
THE INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AND WARM FRONT START TO
BE FELT.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

RAIN AND WIND CONTINUE WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT.
A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR DURING MONDAY OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A
DRY SLOT DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE EXITING FRONT FROM SUNDAY AND THE
NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. MONDAY INTO TUESDAY LOOK TO FEATURE
QUITE A BIT OF WIND. NW FLOW INTO MAY KEEP SUB VFR CIGS INTO BLF
AND POSSIBLE LWB...WITH VFR TO THE EAST. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
WHICH MAY BRING WINTRY PRECIP TO THE AREA ALONG WITH SUB VFR AT
ALL SITES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 215 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WILL BE OUT
OF SERVICE UNTIL PARTS ARRIVE TO REPLACE THE SENSOR. UNTIL THEN
THE VISIBILITY WILL ONLY BE REPORTED WHEN THE CONTROL TOWER IS
STAFFED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     VAZ007-009.
NC...NONE.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     WVZ042.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...KK/MBS/WP
EQUIPMENT...RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 230943
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
443 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD RAIN INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT...AND WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION
AND OTHER HIGH ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH TUESDAY...RETURNING TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL STORM TO
IMPACT PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EST SUNDAY...

EVERYTHING SEEMS TO BE UNFOLDING AS ADVERTISED AS PCPN TO OUR SOUTH
IS ADVANCING TOWARD THE REGION AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT ATTACHED TO A
DEVELOPING LOW IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DRY AIR WILL HINDER PROGRESS
OF PCPN AS IT ENTERS THE REGION...BUT EXPECT IT WILL PASS THE VA/NC
LINE DURING THE MORNING AND OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. PCPN WILL BE BIASED WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT AND LESSER AMOUNTS AS YOU GO FURTHER WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

THE BIGGEST CONCERN THROUGH THE NEAR TERM IS THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL SELY
JET WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PEAK AOA 70KTS JUST TO OUR WEST ROUGHLY FROM 5PM TO
1AM. THE COUNTIES OF TAZEWELL AND SMYTH IN VA AND MERCER IS WV ARE KNOWN TO
BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO STRONG WINDS TRANSLATING TO LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THIS TYPE
OF SITUATION SO WILL RAISE A WIND ADVSY FOR THESE LOCATIONS IN ANTICIPATION
OF GUSTS AROUND 50MPH. HOWEVER...EXPECTING WINDS NOT TOO FAR BELOW CRITERIA
FOR OTHER AREAS OF THE WESTERN SLOPES SO ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED IF
THE SITUATION UNFOLDS WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS.

ONCE THE WARM FRONT SURGES THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT WILL
WORK IN FROM THE WEST AND SHOULD RAPIDLY TAPER PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EST SUNDAY...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL 500H TROUGH WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
CONUS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH COOLER AIR REMAINING WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY...THEN ADVECTING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES A DRY COLD FRONT OVER AND EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE PERIOD. BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL THEN SET-UP
ALONG THE EAST COAST AND WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF STREAM TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE
NORTHEAST NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY.

IN THE WAKE OF SUNDAY NIGHTS WARM FRONTAL RAIN...FORECAST AREA
WILL BE IN THE DRY SLOT...WARM SECTOR SOUTHERLY WINDS PROVIDING A
BREEZY BUT MILD DAY MONDAY. 1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES OF
565-570DM AND 850H TEMPS OF +10 DEG C SUPPORT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S MONDAY...POSSIBLY TESTING THE LOWER
70S ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VA AND THE PIEDMONT. UNTIL SURFACE FRONT
CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE DAY...FORECAST AREA SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR/DRY SLOT WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THICKNESSES DROP BEHIND PASSING COLD
FRONT. ASIDE FOR SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SO BIGGEST CHANGE WILL BE A
SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION FROM SOUTH TO WEST...850 TEMPS TAKING
ABOUT A 10 DEGREE TUMBLE. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL RETURN TO
NOVEMBER NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE MU40S MTNS TO LM50S SOUTHSIDE
VA AND NC PIEDMONT.

WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL ENSURE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT VCNTY OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. TRACK/STRENGTH
OF THIS FEATURE WILL DEPEND ON OVERALL RESPONSE TO DYNAMIC FORCING
FROM SHORT WAVE ENERGY ARRIVING VIA THE UPPER LEVEL TROF...MODELS
TRENDING STRONGER AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THIS FEATURE WITH TIME.
AT THE VERY LEAST CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. QUESTIONS IS WHETHER THE MOISTURE WILL BECOME DEEP
ENOUGH THIS FAR WEST FROM THE COAST FOR PRECIPITATION. ATTM IT
APPEAR GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR RAIN TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 29 LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. IF PRECIPITATION
EXTENDS ALL THE WAY TO THE BLUE RIDGE...TEMPERATURES MAY BE COLD
ENOUGH ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM TO HAVE SNOW OR A RAIN
SNOW MIX. UNTIL A BETTER FIX ON STORM TRACK CAN BE
ESTABLISHED...QPF WILL REMAIN IN QUESTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EST SATURDAY...

TWO DISTINCT SYSTEMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR BRING SOME PRECIPITATION
TO PARTS OF THE AREA DURING THIS SEGMENT OF THE FORECAST. THE FIRST
ITEM OF INTEREST IS A LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG A
BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT WILL BE POSITIONED ALONG THE COAST DURING THE
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE
STILL INCONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER...AND WITH THEIR OWN PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS REGARDING THE TIMING...TRACK AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS FEATURE. YESTERDAY...THE ECWMF WAS THE ONLY OPERATIONAL
MODEL RUN THAT HINTED AT PRECIPITATION SKIRTING THE EASTERN EXTENT
OF THE FORECAST AREA. TODAY...ITS SOLUTIONS IS MORE ROBUST ON THIS
SCENARIO WITH PRECIPITATION NOW THE WHOLE WAY WEST TO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. TODAY...THE GFS SOLUTION IS ONLY SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST AS
COMPARED TO THE ECWMF FROM YESTERDAY...BUT STILL...HAS ALL BUT OUR
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES WITH AT LEAST 0.01 PRECIP. THE
CANADIAN SOLUTION KEEPS THE SYSTEM FARTHER OFF THE COAST WITH NOT A
DROP OF PRECIPITATION REACHING THE FORECAST AREA. OUR FORECAST FROM
YESTERDAY REFLECTED A MODEL BLEND CONSENSUS THAT WAS MORE IN LINE
WITH THE WETTER ECWMF SOLUTION. GIVEN BOTH THE GFS AND ECWMF ARE
WETTER FOR THE REGION...AND THE MODEL BLEND CONSENSUS IS ALSO WETTER
ACROSS THE REGION...HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT IN THE FORECAST.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO REFLECT 50
PERCENT IN THE EAST...WITH 20 TO 25 PERCENT IN THE WEST. SURFACE AND
LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MAINLY A SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW
FORECAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY...WITH PRIMARILY RAIN
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR ARRIVING ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR MORE LIGHT
SNOW...BUT WITH THE SYSTEM EXITING...MUCH LESS COVERAGE.

OUT NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT ZIPS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION
DURING THE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECWMF SOLUTIONS HAVE CHANGED COMPARED TO THEIR -24 HOUR
COUNTERPARTS. PRIOR...MODEL SOLUTIONS WERE HINTING AT A MORE
PROLONGED CLOSED LOW STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
WITH A MORE PROFOUND SHOT OF COLDER AIR IN ITS WAKE. THE LATEST
SOLUTIONS OFFER A MORE GLANCING BLOW OF ENERGY ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH THE COLDER AIR NOT HAVING AS MUCH CHANCE TO MAKE THE
TURN SOUTH PRIOR TO ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE
OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WHILE THE FORECAST WILL STILL OFFER SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL BE A BIT MILDER THAN WHAT AS OFFERED IN THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM EST SUNDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN HANDLING OF UPCOMING
SYSTEM. STILL ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE AIRMASS MOISTENS UP AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE MID MISS VALLEY BRING A WARM FRONT ACROSS BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON AT MOST SITES
WITH LIGHT RAIN FOLLOWING CLOSE BEHIND. EXPECT PERIODS OF MDT AND
HEAVY RAIN FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...
ALONG WITH TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS. CONTINUING TO MONITOR POTENTIAL
LOW LVL WIND SHEAR AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO AOA 60KTS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WILL NOT MENTION IN THIS PACKAGE BUT WILL INCLUDE WITH THE
12Z ISSUANCE IF NEEDED.

LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND
GUSTY SUNDAY. WINDS AT BLF MAY STAY UP A BIT TONIGHT AS
THE INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AND WARM FRONT START TO
BE FELT.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

RAIN AND WIND CONTINUE WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT.
A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR DURING MONDAY OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A
DRY SLOT DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE EXITING FRONT FROM SUNDAY AND THE
NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. MONDAY INTO TUESDAY LOOK TO FEATURE
QUITE A BIT OF WIND. NW FLOW INTO MAY KEEP SUB VFR CIGS INTO BLF
AND POSSIBLE LWB...WITH VFR TO THE EAST. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
WHICH MAY BRING WINTRY PRECIP TO THE AREA ALONG WITH SUB VFR AT
ALL SITES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 215 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WILL BE OUT
OF SERVICE UNTIL PARTS ARRIVE TO REPLACE THE SENSOR. UNTIL THEN
THE VISIBILITY WILL ONLY BE REPORTED WHEN THE CONTROL TOWER IS
STAFFED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     VAZ007-009.
NC...NONE.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     WVZ042.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...KK/MBS/WP
EQUIPMENT...RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 230943
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
443 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD RAIN INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT...AND WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION
AND OTHER HIGH ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH TUESDAY...RETURNING TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL STORM TO
IMPACT PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EST SUNDAY...

EVERYTHING SEEMS TO BE UNFOLDING AS ADVERTISED AS PCPN TO OUR SOUTH
IS ADVANCING TOWARD THE REGION AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT ATTACHED TO A
DEVELOPING LOW IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DRY AIR WILL HINDER PROGRESS
OF PCPN AS IT ENTERS THE REGION...BUT EXPECT IT WILL PASS THE VA/NC
LINE DURING THE MORNING AND OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. PCPN WILL BE BIASED WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT AND LESSER AMOUNTS AS YOU GO FURTHER WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

THE BIGGEST CONCERN THROUGH THE NEAR TERM IS THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL SELY
JET WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PEAK AOA 70KTS JUST TO OUR WEST ROUGHLY FROM 5PM TO
1AM. THE COUNTIES OF TAZEWELL AND SMYTH IN VA AND MERCER IS WV ARE KNOWN TO
BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO STRONG WINDS TRANSLATING TO LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THIS TYPE
OF SITUATION SO WILL RAISE A WIND ADVSY FOR THESE LOCATIONS IN ANTICIPATION
OF GUSTS AROUND 50MPH. HOWEVER...EXPECTING WINDS NOT TOO FAR BELOW CRITERIA
FOR OTHER AREAS OF THE WESTERN SLOPES SO ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED IF
THE SITUATION UNFOLDS WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS.

ONCE THE WARM FRONT SURGES THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT WILL
WORK IN FROM THE WEST AND SHOULD RAPIDLY TAPER PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EST SUNDAY...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL 500H TROUGH WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
CONUS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH COOLER AIR REMAINING WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY...THEN ADVECTING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES A DRY COLD FRONT OVER AND EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE PERIOD. BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL THEN SET-UP
ALONG THE EAST COAST AND WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF STREAM TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE
NORTHEAST NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY.

IN THE WAKE OF SUNDAY NIGHTS WARM FRONTAL RAIN...FORECAST AREA
WILL BE IN THE DRY SLOT...WARM SECTOR SOUTHERLY WINDS PROVIDING A
BREEZY BUT MILD DAY MONDAY. 1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES OF
565-570DM AND 850H TEMPS OF +10 DEG C SUPPORT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S MONDAY...POSSIBLY TESTING THE LOWER
70S ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VA AND THE PIEDMONT. UNTIL SURFACE FRONT
CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE DAY...FORECAST AREA SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR/DRY SLOT WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THICKNESSES DROP BEHIND PASSING COLD
FRONT. ASIDE FOR SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SO BIGGEST CHANGE WILL BE A
SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION FROM SOUTH TO WEST...850 TEMPS TAKING
ABOUT A 10 DEGREE TUMBLE. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL RETURN TO
NOVEMBER NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE MU40S MTNS TO LM50S SOUTHSIDE
VA AND NC PIEDMONT.

WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL ENSURE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT VCNTY OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. TRACK/STRENGTH
OF THIS FEATURE WILL DEPEND ON OVERALL RESPONSE TO DYNAMIC FORCING
FROM SHORT WAVE ENERGY ARRIVING VIA THE UPPER LEVEL TROF...MODELS
TRENDING STRONGER AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THIS FEATURE WITH TIME.
AT THE VERY LEAST CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. QUESTIONS IS WHETHER THE MOISTURE WILL BECOME DEEP
ENOUGH THIS FAR WEST FROM THE COAST FOR PRECIPITATION. ATTM IT
APPEAR GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR RAIN TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 29 LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. IF PRECIPITATION
EXTENDS ALL THE WAY TO THE BLUE RIDGE...TEMPERATURES MAY BE COLD
ENOUGH ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM TO HAVE SNOW OR A RAIN
SNOW MIX. UNTIL A BETTER FIX ON STORM TRACK CAN BE
ESTABLISHED...QPF WILL REMAIN IN QUESTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EST SATURDAY...

TWO DISTINCT SYSTEMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR BRING SOME PRECIPITATION
TO PARTS OF THE AREA DURING THIS SEGMENT OF THE FORECAST. THE FIRST
ITEM OF INTEREST IS A LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG A
BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT WILL BE POSITIONED ALONG THE COAST DURING THE
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE
STILL INCONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER...AND WITH THEIR OWN PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS REGARDING THE TIMING...TRACK AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS FEATURE. YESTERDAY...THE ECWMF WAS THE ONLY OPERATIONAL
MODEL RUN THAT HINTED AT PRECIPITATION SKIRTING THE EASTERN EXTENT
OF THE FORECAST AREA. TODAY...ITS SOLUTIONS IS MORE ROBUST ON THIS
SCENARIO WITH PRECIPITATION NOW THE WHOLE WAY WEST TO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. TODAY...THE GFS SOLUTION IS ONLY SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST AS
COMPARED TO THE ECWMF FROM YESTERDAY...BUT STILL...HAS ALL BUT OUR
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES WITH AT LEAST 0.01 PRECIP. THE
CANADIAN SOLUTION KEEPS THE SYSTEM FARTHER OFF THE COAST WITH NOT A
DROP OF PRECIPITATION REACHING THE FORECAST AREA. OUR FORECAST FROM
YESTERDAY REFLECTED A MODEL BLEND CONSENSUS THAT WAS MORE IN LINE
WITH THE WETTER ECWMF SOLUTION. GIVEN BOTH THE GFS AND ECWMF ARE
WETTER FOR THE REGION...AND THE MODEL BLEND CONSENSUS IS ALSO WETTER
ACROSS THE REGION...HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT IN THE FORECAST.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO REFLECT 50
PERCENT IN THE EAST...WITH 20 TO 25 PERCENT IN THE WEST. SURFACE AND
LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MAINLY A SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW
FORECAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY...WITH PRIMARILY RAIN
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR ARRIVING ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR MORE LIGHT
SNOW...BUT WITH THE SYSTEM EXITING...MUCH LESS COVERAGE.

OUT NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT ZIPS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION
DURING THE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECWMF SOLUTIONS HAVE CHANGED COMPARED TO THEIR -24 HOUR
COUNTERPARTS. PRIOR...MODEL SOLUTIONS WERE HINTING AT A MORE
PROLONGED CLOSED LOW STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
WITH A MORE PROFOUND SHOT OF COLDER AIR IN ITS WAKE. THE LATEST
SOLUTIONS OFFER A MORE GLANCING BLOW OF ENERGY ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH THE COLDER AIR NOT HAVING AS MUCH CHANCE TO MAKE THE
TURN SOUTH PRIOR TO ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE
OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WHILE THE FORECAST WILL STILL OFFER SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL BE A BIT MILDER THAN WHAT AS OFFERED IN THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM EST SUNDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN HANDLING OF UPCOMING
SYSTEM. STILL ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE AIRMASS MOISTENS UP AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE MID MISS VALLEY BRING A WARM FRONT ACROSS BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON AT MOST SITES
WITH LIGHT RAIN FOLLOWING CLOSE BEHIND. EXPECT PERIODS OF MDT AND
HEAVY RAIN FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...
ALONG WITH TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS. CONTINUING TO MONITOR POTENTIAL
LOW LVL WIND SHEAR AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO AOA 60KTS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WILL NOT MENTION IN THIS PACKAGE BUT WILL INCLUDE WITH THE
12Z ISSUANCE IF NEEDED.

LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND
GUSTY SUNDAY. WINDS AT BLF MAY STAY UP A BIT TONIGHT AS
THE INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AND WARM FRONT START TO
BE FELT.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

RAIN AND WIND CONTINUE WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT.
A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR DURING MONDAY OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A
DRY SLOT DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE EXITING FRONT FROM SUNDAY AND THE
NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. MONDAY INTO TUESDAY LOOK TO FEATURE
QUITE A BIT OF WIND. NW FLOW INTO MAY KEEP SUB VFR CIGS INTO BLF
AND POSSIBLE LWB...WITH VFR TO THE EAST. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
WHICH MAY BRING WINTRY PRECIP TO THE AREA ALONG WITH SUB VFR AT
ALL SITES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 215 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WILL BE OUT
OF SERVICE UNTIL PARTS ARRIVE TO REPLACE THE SENSOR. UNTIL THEN
THE VISIBILITY WILL ONLY BE REPORTED WHEN THE CONTROL TOWER IS
STAFFED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     VAZ007-009.
NC...NONE.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     WVZ042.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...KK/MBS/WP
EQUIPMENT...RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 230943
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
443 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD RAIN INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT...AND WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION
AND OTHER HIGH ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH TUESDAY...RETURNING TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL STORM TO
IMPACT PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EST SUNDAY...

EVERYTHING SEEMS TO BE UNFOLDING AS ADVERTISED AS PCPN TO OUR SOUTH
IS ADVANCING TOWARD THE REGION AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT ATTACHED TO A
DEVELOPING LOW IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DRY AIR WILL HINDER PROGRESS
OF PCPN AS IT ENTERS THE REGION...BUT EXPECT IT WILL PASS THE VA/NC
LINE DURING THE MORNING AND OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. PCPN WILL BE BIASED WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT AND LESSER AMOUNTS AS YOU GO FURTHER WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

THE BIGGEST CONCERN THROUGH THE NEAR TERM IS THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL SELY
JET WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PEAK AOA 70KTS JUST TO OUR WEST ROUGHLY FROM 5PM TO
1AM. THE COUNTIES OF TAZEWELL AND SMYTH IN VA AND MERCER IS WV ARE KNOWN TO
BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO STRONG WINDS TRANSLATING TO LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THIS TYPE
OF SITUATION SO WILL RAISE A WIND ADVSY FOR THESE LOCATIONS IN ANTICIPATION
OF GUSTS AROUND 50MPH. HOWEVER...EXPECTING WINDS NOT TOO FAR BELOW CRITERIA
FOR OTHER AREAS OF THE WESTERN SLOPES SO ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED IF
THE SITUATION UNFOLDS WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS.

ONCE THE WARM FRONT SURGES THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT WILL
WORK IN FROM THE WEST AND SHOULD RAPIDLY TAPER PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EST SUNDAY...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL 500H TROUGH WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
CONUS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH COOLER AIR REMAINING WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY...THEN ADVECTING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES A DRY COLD FRONT OVER AND EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE PERIOD. BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL THEN SET-UP
ALONG THE EAST COAST AND WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF STREAM TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE
NORTHEAST NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY.

IN THE WAKE OF SUNDAY NIGHTS WARM FRONTAL RAIN...FORECAST AREA
WILL BE IN THE DRY SLOT...WARM SECTOR SOUTHERLY WINDS PROVIDING A
BREEZY BUT MILD DAY MONDAY. 1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES OF
565-570DM AND 850H TEMPS OF +10 DEG C SUPPORT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S MONDAY...POSSIBLY TESTING THE LOWER
70S ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VA AND THE PIEDMONT. UNTIL SURFACE FRONT
CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE DAY...FORECAST AREA SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR/DRY SLOT WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THICKNESSES DROP BEHIND PASSING COLD
FRONT. ASIDE FOR SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SO BIGGEST CHANGE WILL BE A
SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION FROM SOUTH TO WEST...850 TEMPS TAKING
ABOUT A 10 DEGREE TUMBLE. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL RETURN TO
NOVEMBER NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE MU40S MTNS TO LM50S SOUTHSIDE
VA AND NC PIEDMONT.

WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL ENSURE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT VCNTY OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. TRACK/STRENGTH
OF THIS FEATURE WILL DEPEND ON OVERALL RESPONSE TO DYNAMIC FORCING
FROM SHORT WAVE ENERGY ARRIVING VIA THE UPPER LEVEL TROF...MODELS
TRENDING STRONGER AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THIS FEATURE WITH TIME.
AT THE VERY LEAST CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. QUESTIONS IS WHETHER THE MOISTURE WILL BECOME DEEP
ENOUGH THIS FAR WEST FROM THE COAST FOR PRECIPITATION. ATTM IT
APPEAR GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR RAIN TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 29 LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. IF PRECIPITATION
EXTENDS ALL THE WAY TO THE BLUE RIDGE...TEMPERATURES MAY BE COLD
ENOUGH ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM TO HAVE SNOW OR A RAIN
SNOW MIX. UNTIL A BETTER FIX ON STORM TRACK CAN BE
ESTABLISHED...QPF WILL REMAIN IN QUESTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EST SATURDAY...

TWO DISTINCT SYSTEMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR BRING SOME PRECIPITATION
TO PARTS OF THE AREA DURING THIS SEGMENT OF THE FORECAST. THE FIRST
ITEM OF INTEREST IS A LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG A
BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT WILL BE POSITIONED ALONG THE COAST DURING THE
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE
STILL INCONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER...AND WITH THEIR OWN PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS REGARDING THE TIMING...TRACK AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS FEATURE. YESTERDAY...THE ECWMF WAS THE ONLY OPERATIONAL
MODEL RUN THAT HINTED AT PRECIPITATION SKIRTING THE EASTERN EXTENT
OF THE FORECAST AREA. TODAY...ITS SOLUTIONS IS MORE ROBUST ON THIS
SCENARIO WITH PRECIPITATION NOW THE WHOLE WAY WEST TO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. TODAY...THE GFS SOLUTION IS ONLY SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST AS
COMPARED TO THE ECWMF FROM YESTERDAY...BUT STILL...HAS ALL BUT OUR
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES WITH AT LEAST 0.01 PRECIP. THE
CANADIAN SOLUTION KEEPS THE SYSTEM FARTHER OFF THE COAST WITH NOT A
DROP OF PRECIPITATION REACHING THE FORECAST AREA. OUR FORECAST FROM
YESTERDAY REFLECTED A MODEL BLEND CONSENSUS THAT WAS MORE IN LINE
WITH THE WETTER ECWMF SOLUTION. GIVEN BOTH THE GFS AND ECWMF ARE
WETTER FOR THE REGION...AND THE MODEL BLEND CONSENSUS IS ALSO WETTER
ACROSS THE REGION...HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT IN THE FORECAST.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO REFLECT 50
PERCENT IN THE EAST...WITH 20 TO 25 PERCENT IN THE WEST. SURFACE AND
LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MAINLY A SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW
FORECAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY...WITH PRIMARILY RAIN
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR ARRIVING ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR MORE LIGHT
SNOW...BUT WITH THE SYSTEM EXITING...MUCH LESS COVERAGE.

OUT NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT ZIPS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION
DURING THE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECWMF SOLUTIONS HAVE CHANGED COMPARED TO THEIR -24 HOUR
COUNTERPARTS. PRIOR...MODEL SOLUTIONS WERE HINTING AT A MORE
PROLONGED CLOSED LOW STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
WITH A MORE PROFOUND SHOT OF COLDER AIR IN ITS WAKE. THE LATEST
SOLUTIONS OFFER A MORE GLANCING BLOW OF ENERGY ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH THE COLDER AIR NOT HAVING AS MUCH CHANCE TO MAKE THE
TURN SOUTH PRIOR TO ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE
OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WHILE THE FORECAST WILL STILL OFFER SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL BE A BIT MILDER THAN WHAT AS OFFERED IN THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM EST SUNDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN HANDLING OF UPCOMING
SYSTEM. STILL ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE AIRMASS MOISTENS UP AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE MID MISS VALLEY BRING A WARM FRONT ACROSS BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON AT MOST SITES
WITH LIGHT RAIN FOLLOWING CLOSE BEHIND. EXPECT PERIODS OF MDT AND
HEAVY RAIN FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...
ALONG WITH TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS. CONTINUING TO MONITOR POTENTIAL
LOW LVL WIND SHEAR AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO AOA 60KTS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WILL NOT MENTION IN THIS PACKAGE BUT WILL INCLUDE WITH THE
12Z ISSUANCE IF NEEDED.

LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND
GUSTY SUNDAY. WINDS AT BLF MAY STAY UP A BIT TONIGHT AS
THE INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AND WARM FRONT START TO
BE FELT.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

RAIN AND WIND CONTINUE WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT.
A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR DURING MONDAY OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A
DRY SLOT DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE EXITING FRONT FROM SUNDAY AND THE
NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. MONDAY INTO TUESDAY LOOK TO FEATURE
QUITE A BIT OF WIND. NW FLOW INTO MAY KEEP SUB VFR CIGS INTO BLF
AND POSSIBLE LWB...WITH VFR TO THE EAST. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
WHICH MAY BRING WINTRY PRECIP TO THE AREA ALONG WITH SUB VFR AT
ALL SITES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 215 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WILL BE OUT
OF SERVICE UNTIL PARTS ARRIVE TO REPLACE THE SENSOR. UNTIL THEN
THE VISIBILITY WILL ONLY BE REPORTED WHEN THE CONTROL TOWER IS
STAFFED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     VAZ007-009.
NC...NONE.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     WVZ042.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...KK/MBS/WP
EQUIPMENT...RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 230943
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
443 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD RAIN INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT...AND WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION
AND OTHER HIGH ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH TUESDAY...RETURNING TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL STORM TO
IMPACT PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EST SUNDAY...

EVERYTHING SEEMS TO BE UNFOLDING AS ADVERTISED AS PCPN TO OUR SOUTH
IS ADVANCING TOWARD THE REGION AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT ATTACHED TO A
DEVELOPING LOW IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DRY AIR WILL HINDER PROGRESS
OF PCPN AS IT ENTERS THE REGION...BUT EXPECT IT WILL PASS THE VA/NC
LINE DURING THE MORNING AND OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. PCPN WILL BE BIASED WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT AND LESSER AMOUNTS AS YOU GO FURTHER WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

THE BIGGEST CONCERN THROUGH THE NEAR TERM IS THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL SELY
JET WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PEAK AOA 70KTS JUST TO OUR WEST ROUGHLY FROM 5PM TO
1AM. THE COUNTIES OF TAZEWELL AND SMYTH IN VA AND MERCER IS WV ARE KNOWN TO
BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO STRONG WINDS TRANSLATING TO LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THIS TYPE
OF SITUATION SO WILL RAISE A WIND ADVSY FOR THESE LOCATIONS IN ANTICIPATION
OF GUSTS AROUND 50MPH. HOWEVER...EXPECTING WINDS NOT TOO FAR BELOW CRITERIA
FOR OTHER AREAS OF THE WESTERN SLOPES SO ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED IF
THE SITUATION UNFOLDS WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS.

ONCE THE WARM FRONT SURGES THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT WILL
WORK IN FROM THE WEST AND SHOULD RAPIDLY TAPER PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EST SUNDAY...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL 500H TROUGH WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
CONUS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH COOLER AIR REMAINING WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY...THEN ADVECTING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES A DRY COLD FRONT OVER AND EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE PERIOD. BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL THEN SET-UP
ALONG THE EAST COAST AND WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF STREAM TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE
NORTHEAST NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY.

IN THE WAKE OF SUNDAY NIGHTS WARM FRONTAL RAIN...FORECAST AREA
WILL BE IN THE DRY SLOT...WARM SECTOR SOUTHERLY WINDS PROVIDING A
BREEZY BUT MILD DAY MONDAY. 1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES OF
565-570DM AND 850H TEMPS OF +10 DEG C SUPPORT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S MONDAY...POSSIBLY TESTING THE LOWER
70S ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VA AND THE PIEDMONT. UNTIL SURFACE FRONT
CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE DAY...FORECAST AREA SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR/DRY SLOT WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THICKNESSES DROP BEHIND PASSING COLD
FRONT. ASIDE FOR SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SO BIGGEST CHANGE WILL BE A
SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION FROM SOUTH TO WEST...850 TEMPS TAKING
ABOUT A 10 DEGREE TUMBLE. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL RETURN TO
NOVEMBER NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE MU40S MTNS TO LM50S SOUTHSIDE
VA AND NC PIEDMONT.

WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL ENSURE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT VCNTY OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. TRACK/STRENGTH
OF THIS FEATURE WILL DEPEND ON OVERALL RESPONSE TO DYNAMIC FORCING
FROM SHORT WAVE ENERGY ARRIVING VIA THE UPPER LEVEL TROF...MODELS
TRENDING STRONGER AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THIS FEATURE WITH TIME.
AT THE VERY LEAST CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. QUESTIONS IS WHETHER THE MOISTURE WILL BECOME DEEP
ENOUGH THIS FAR WEST FROM THE COAST FOR PRECIPITATION. ATTM IT
APPEAR GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR RAIN TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 29 LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. IF PRECIPITATION
EXTENDS ALL THE WAY TO THE BLUE RIDGE...TEMPERATURES MAY BE COLD
ENOUGH ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM TO HAVE SNOW OR A RAIN
SNOW MIX. UNTIL A BETTER FIX ON STORM TRACK CAN BE
ESTABLISHED...QPF WILL REMAIN IN QUESTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EST SATURDAY...

TWO DISTINCT SYSTEMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR BRING SOME PRECIPITATION
TO PARTS OF THE AREA DURING THIS SEGMENT OF THE FORECAST. THE FIRST
ITEM OF INTEREST IS A LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG A
BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT WILL BE POSITIONED ALONG THE COAST DURING THE
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE
STILL INCONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER...AND WITH THEIR OWN PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS REGARDING THE TIMING...TRACK AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS FEATURE. YESTERDAY...THE ECWMF WAS THE ONLY OPERATIONAL
MODEL RUN THAT HINTED AT PRECIPITATION SKIRTING THE EASTERN EXTENT
OF THE FORECAST AREA. TODAY...ITS SOLUTIONS IS MORE ROBUST ON THIS
SCENARIO WITH PRECIPITATION NOW THE WHOLE WAY WEST TO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. TODAY...THE GFS SOLUTION IS ONLY SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST AS
COMPARED TO THE ECWMF FROM YESTERDAY...BUT STILL...HAS ALL BUT OUR
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES WITH AT LEAST 0.01 PRECIP. THE
CANADIAN SOLUTION KEEPS THE SYSTEM FARTHER OFF THE COAST WITH NOT A
DROP OF PRECIPITATION REACHING THE FORECAST AREA. OUR FORECAST FROM
YESTERDAY REFLECTED A MODEL BLEND CONSENSUS THAT WAS MORE IN LINE
WITH THE WETTER ECWMF SOLUTION. GIVEN BOTH THE GFS AND ECWMF ARE
WETTER FOR THE REGION...AND THE MODEL BLEND CONSENSUS IS ALSO WETTER
ACROSS THE REGION...HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT IN THE FORECAST.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO REFLECT 50
PERCENT IN THE EAST...WITH 20 TO 25 PERCENT IN THE WEST. SURFACE AND
LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MAINLY A SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW
FORECAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY...WITH PRIMARILY RAIN
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR ARRIVING ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR MORE LIGHT
SNOW...BUT WITH THE SYSTEM EXITING...MUCH LESS COVERAGE.

OUT NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT ZIPS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION
DURING THE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECWMF SOLUTIONS HAVE CHANGED COMPARED TO THEIR -24 HOUR
COUNTERPARTS. PRIOR...MODEL SOLUTIONS WERE HINTING AT A MORE
PROLONGED CLOSED LOW STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
WITH A MORE PROFOUND SHOT OF COLDER AIR IN ITS WAKE. THE LATEST
SOLUTIONS OFFER A MORE GLANCING BLOW OF ENERGY ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH THE COLDER AIR NOT HAVING AS MUCH CHANCE TO MAKE THE
TURN SOUTH PRIOR TO ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE
OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WHILE THE FORECAST WILL STILL OFFER SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL BE A BIT MILDER THAN WHAT AS OFFERED IN THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM EST SUNDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN HANDLING OF UPCOMING
SYSTEM. STILL ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE AIRMASS MOISTENS UP AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE MID MISS VALLEY BRING A WARM FRONT ACROSS BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON AT MOST SITES
WITH LIGHT RAIN FOLLOWING CLOSE BEHIND. EXPECT PERIODS OF MDT AND
HEAVY RAIN FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...
ALONG WITH TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS. CONTINUING TO MONITOR POTENTIAL
LOW LVL WIND SHEAR AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO AOA 60KTS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WILL NOT MENTION IN THIS PACKAGE BUT WILL INCLUDE WITH THE
12Z ISSUANCE IF NEEDED.

LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND
GUSTY SUNDAY. WINDS AT BLF MAY STAY UP A BIT TONIGHT AS
THE INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AND WARM FRONT START TO
BE FELT.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

RAIN AND WIND CONTINUE WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT.
A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR DURING MONDAY OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A
DRY SLOT DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE EXITING FRONT FROM SUNDAY AND THE
NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. MONDAY INTO TUESDAY LOOK TO FEATURE
QUITE A BIT OF WIND. NW FLOW INTO MAY KEEP SUB VFR CIGS INTO BLF
AND POSSIBLE LWB...WITH VFR TO THE EAST. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
WHICH MAY BRING WINTRY PRECIP TO THE AREA ALONG WITH SUB VFR AT
ALL SITES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 215 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WILL BE OUT
OF SERVICE UNTIL PARTS ARRIVE TO REPLACE THE SENSOR. UNTIL THEN
THE VISIBILITY WILL ONLY BE REPORTED WHEN THE CONTROL TOWER IS
STAFFED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     VAZ007-009.
NC...NONE.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     WVZ042.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...KK/MBS/WP
EQUIPMENT...RAB




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230854
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
354 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE EAST
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HI PRES NOW OFF THE CST...WILL CONT TO SLO DRIFT E AWAY FM THE
CST THROUGH TDA. CLOUDS CONT TO INCRS...THICKEN...AND LWR FM THE
SW AS GULF COAST MOISTURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFT NE
THROUGH THE SE CONUS...AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. XPCG MUCH OF THE DAY TO BE DRY...BUT
SOME RAIN SHOULD ARRIVE IN FAR SW PORTIONS OF LATE IN THE DAY.
WILL CONT W/ INCRSG POPS TO 50-60% POPS SW LATE IN THE DAY...W/
RIBBON OF 30-40% POP FROM THE NW PIEDMONT THROUGH NE NC. HI TEMPS
RANGING FM THE M50S NW TO L60S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WITH STRONG VERTICAL MOTION WILL CROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TNGT. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE (PWTRS INCRSG TO 1.5 TO
2 IN 00-06Z/24 PER 00Z/23 GFS) WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT DUE TO A
STRONG NEARLY 70KT LLJ. POPS FOR RAIN DURING THE 12HR PERIOD TNGT
WILL CONT AT 100%. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
COASTAL NE NC (NOT READY TO ADD TO OTHER AREAS - ESP ERN VA/LWR SE
MD BUT WOULDN`T RULE IT OUT)...AND SPC HAS OUTLINED THAT AREA
(CSTL NE NC) IN SLGT CHC SVR. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
6HR PRESSURE FALLS OF -6MB TO -10MB GFS WILL RESULT IN
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF THE COAST.
GUSTS FROM THE SSE DIRECTION OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. LO
TEMPS TNGT SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 50S...WITH READINGS LIKELY TO
RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG FORCING AND SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE
SHOULD RESULT IN A ~6HR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
RAIN TNGT...WITH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS AVERAGING 0.5 TO 0.75 IN
N/CNTRL AND 1.00-1.25 IN NR THE CST (AND NE NC).

THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NNE OF THE REGION BY 12Z/25...W/ A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING TOWARD THE FAR WRN COUNTIES BY 00Z TUE. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE MON MORNING...WITH A GUSTY SW WIND
DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S (SEE THE
THE CLIMO SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS). WILL LIMIT ANY POPS TO FAR
ESE AREAS OF FA AS 00Z/23 NAM RMNS OUTLIER IN LINGERING MOISTURE
ACRS THOSE LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT AND TUE. PARTIAL
CLEARING IS XPCD INLAND...WITH PSBL CLOUDS LINGERING RIGHT ALG THE
COAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER TUE. HIGHS TUE
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO LOW 60S SE...AFTER MORNING
LOWS FROM THE MID 40S NW...TO LOW/MID 50S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z/23 RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF COMING MORE INTO LINE WRT PTNTL
LO PRES DEVELOPING ALG STALLED FNTL BNDRY NR THE SE CONUS CST LT
TUE/TUE NGT...THEN TRACKING NNE ALG THE CST WED INTO WED NGT. A
BUSY PD OF TRAVEL MIDWEEK INCRSLY LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY
RA...AND AS PTNTL CSTL STM WINDS DOWN (LT WED/WED NGT)...MDL TEMP
PROFILES SUGGEST PSBL RA ENDING AS WET SN INLAND. HAVE NUDGED POPS
UP TO 70-80% E PORTION W...40-60% INLAND ON WED.

PCPN/MOIST THEN MOVES E OF THE AREA AND OFF THE CST LATER WED
WED NGT...WITH POPS DIMINISHING FM W TO E. A MAINLY DRY FRONT
SWINGS ACRS THE AREA THU AFTN INTO EARLY FRI MORNG. HI PRES WILL
THEN BLD INTO AND OVR THE REGION FRI THRU SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE L40S W AND M/U40S E WED...IN THE U40S TO L50S THU...IN THE
M/U40S FRI...AND RANGE THRU THE 40S SAT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S TO LWR 40S WED MORNG...IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S THU AND
FRI MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S SAT MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONT ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL PERSIST INTO THIS
MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVD OFFSHORE OF VA/NC AND WNDS
AROUND THE HIGH ARE SE-SW OVER THE REGION AND GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 KTS. MEANWHILE...LOTS OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE SE AND GULF STATES
WILL PUSH NORTH INTO THE MID ATL REGION DURING THE DAY.

A MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL HELP FORM A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE SE US AS THE MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVES NE OUT OF THE GOMEX
TDA. THIS WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE MOISTURE AS A WARM FRONT
SURGES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS (POSSIBLY
LOWER) DUE TO LOWERED CEILINGS AND REDUCED VIS WITH RAIN.
ALSO...WIND GUSTS TO 35KT MAY BE POSSIBLE MON MORNING AS THE SYSTEM
DEEPENS OVER THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER
NE NC/SE VA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST UPDATED WITH AN UPGRADE TO GALE WARNING OVR THE OCEAN.
DESPITE WARM AIR OVR COOL WATER TEMPS...WITH A STRONG PRES
GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT AND WEAK LO PRES
DEVELOPMENT OVR NRN VA...AND LATEST NAM12 PROGGING 925 MB WINDS
~75 KT...THINK THAT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW HRS OF WINDS AOA
34 KT OVR THE OCEAN TNGT. SEAS WILL REACH 6-8 FT. GUSTS MAY COME
CLOSE TO GALE FORCE OVR THE BAY AS WELL (AT LEAST AT ELEVATED
SITES) WHERE STRONG SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. ALSO
MAINTAINED THE SCA HEADLINES FOR THE OTHER WTRS. THE GALE WARNING
ENDS LATE MON MORNING...BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED AS GUSTS COULD
CONTINUE IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE THRU THE AFTN HRS. THE SCA
HEADLINES ALL END DURING THE DAY MON AS WINDS DECREASE JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRNT WHICH CROSSES THE WTRS LATE MON NGT/TUE MORNG.
IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS THEN INTO TUE WITH HI PRES OVR THE
AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED MONDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

RIC 76 1979
ORF 78 1983
SBY 78 1931
ECG 77 1983

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ633-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632.
     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...ALB/TMG
AVIATION...MAS/DAP/JEF
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KLWX 230840
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
340 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF CAPE HATTERAS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT OFFSHORE
THIS MORNING. A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BRING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HIPRES REMAINS OFF HSE ELY THIS MRNG. A SWATH OF LOW DEWPTS
RESIDES NW OF THIS RDG...FM THE MID ATLC UP THE SEABOARD TO DOWNEAST
ME. THIS DRY AIR HAS BEEN PROTECTING AREA FM PACKETS OF ISENT LIFT
AND ASSOCD PCPN CROSSING THE LWR GRTLKS. INSTEAD...THERE ARE PLENTY
OF MID-UPR DECK CLDS AND LGT SLY WINDS ACRS AREA.

THERE ARE TWO RGNS OF S/WV ENERGY IN THE SRN STREAM... ONE MVG
ONSHORE INVOF NWRN FL AND A HEALTHY VORT EMERGING INTO THE GLFMEX FM
CSTL TX. AS THESE S/WVS LIFT/DIG...H5 FLOW PTTN WL BECOME MORE
AMPLIFIED. THAT WL ALLOW A WMFNT TO APPRCH THE CWFA TDA. BELIEVE THE
FNT ITSELF WL REMAIN SW OF CWFA DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS. INSTEAD...
ENERGY WL BE FOCUSED TWD MSTNG THE DRY AMS. AM STILL HOPEFUL THAT
THERE WL BE SOME SUNSHN DURING THE MRNG/MIDDAY...BUT IT/LL BECOME
MASKED BY INCRSG CLDCVR. PCPN WL FLLW SOON THEREAFTER.

FOR THE FIRST PD...AM CONFINING LKLY POPS TO SWRN CWFA...GNLY SHD
SWD. THIS ISNT TOO DIFFERENT FM PRVS FCSTS. FURTHER...AM KEEPING
MOST OF MD-- ANYWHERE NE OF THE PTMC RIVER-- DRY. OBVIOUSLY...CHC
POPS IN BTWN. GFS/ECMWF HV A BETTER HANDLE THAN NAM ON EVOLUTION...
AS EVIDENCED BY COOL BIAS IN YDA FCST. AM USING A BLEND OF MAXT
DERIVED FM THOSE MDLS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
WMFNT WL LIFT ACRS CWFA TNGT...AIDED BY 60-70 KT LLJ BRINGING PWAT
VALUES UP TO ARND 1.5 IN. THUS...CAT POPS AREAWIDE FOR MOST OF THE
NGT...REACHING METRO BALT BY MID EVNG AND ENDING IN THE MTNS
PRE-DAWN. AM XPCTG A PD OF MDT RAFL IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS
TIMEFRAME...SPCLY FOR THE BLURDG EWD...WHICH WL HV THE ASSISTANCE OF
THE RDG LINE FOR ENHANCED LIFT. STORM TTL QPF BTWN 0.50-1.00 INCH...
BUT LOCALLY HIER CERTAINLY PSBL. CANT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
EITHER GIVEN SHEAR AND MODEST INSTBY /BEST LI SUBZERO SRN MD
06-09Z/. HV CONFINED SCHC SE OF I-95 FOR JUST A CPL HRS AFTR
MIDNGT.

THE WNDS WL CAUSE ANOTHER ISSUE FOR THE HILLS...AS THE JET MAY BE
DOWN AS LOW AS 1500-2000 FT. HWVR...MIXING SHUD BE RATHER POOR.
CONFIDENCE IN POSITION/HGT/STRENGTH FOR THE JET PRECLUDE AN ADVY
ATTM...HWVR THE THREAT ADEQUATE ENUF TO JUSTIFY INCLUSION IN HWO.

THE WMFNT SHUD LIFT N OF CWFA BY DAYBREAK...TAKING ANY PCPN ACRS THE
DELMARVA. HV KEPT A CHC OF PCPN INTO MID-MRNG TO ACCT FOR ANY TIMING
DIFFS. OTRW...THERE/S NOT A LOT OF FORCING FOR SVRL HRS TIL THE
ATTENDENT CDFNT ARRIVES. THEREFORE...HV WHITTLED OUT A BREEZY BUT
DRY PD DURING THE MIDDAY. EVEN WHEN THE CDFNT DOES MAKE IT HERE
/LATE DAY/...THERES BAROCLINICITY BUT VIRTUALLY NO ULVL FORCING. AM
KEEPING ACCOMPANYING POPS IN THE 20-30 PCT RANGE.

H8 TEMPS PEAK ARND 14C AT 12Z MON MRNG. THEREFORE...WUDNT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE MIN-T BE LESS THAN DIURNAL. HV TAKEN THE WARMER END
OF MOS TO COMPOSE MIN-T GRID...MID 40S TO LWR 50S. HV SIDED
SIMILARLY WARM FOR MAXT MON. TEMPS 70+ SHUD PREVAIL E OF THE BLURDG
MON.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY SWING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...
USHERING IN A DRYING WEST WIND...BUT STILL SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS...
PROBABLY MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN GIVEN THE WARM STARTING
CONDITIONS. IF THE UPSLOPE OPPORTUNITY LINGERS LATER INTO THE
NIGHT...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

DESPITE A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT REBOUND MUCH ON
TUESDAY...REACHING JUST THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S. THE ALLEGHENY FRONT
REMAINS IN THE 30S ALL DAY DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...EVERY
DAY AFTER TUESDAY THIS WEEK WILL BE EVEN COLDER.

THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH HERE MONDAY NIGHT WILL GET HELD UP
IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY A STRONG UPPER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SFC
HIGH. MODELS THEN INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
FRONT AS UPPER ENERGY DIGS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. FROM THERE...
UNCERTAINTY RAPIDLY INCREASES. DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE LOW IS TO
THE COAST...PART OR ALL OF THE AREA WILL SEE PRECIPITATION SPREAD IN
TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AND OF COURSE...SFC
TEMPS ARE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING PART OF THE TIME...AND POTENTIAL
SOLUTIONS ALOFT RUN A WIDE RANGE. THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES ON
TOP OF ALL OF THAT TOO. OUR FRIENDS AT WPC NOTE...AS WE DO...THAT
THE DIFFERENCES HAVE A LINK TO AN UPSTREAM CLIPPER SYSTEM AND HOW IT
PLAYS INTO THE MOTION/EVOLUTION OF THE COASTAL STORM. THE BOTTOM
LINE IS THAT ALL SOLUTIONS ARE STILL ON THE TABLE...FROM NOT MUCH OF
ANYTHING TO ACCUMULATING SNOW. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GENERIC
RAIN-OR-SNOW MENTION BUT WITH INCREASED POPS. LATER TODAY...OUR
PROBABILISTIC SNOW FORECASTS WILL GO THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME...SO WE
WILL AT LEAST HAVE A GOALPOST AND PROBABILISTIC REFERENCES OF
CERTAINTY THEN.

WHATEVER DOES OR DOES NOT HAPPEN WEDNESDAY...THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY
PULL AWAY...LEAVING A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WESTERLIES BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL FAVOR UPSLOPE
SNOW ON THE ALLEGHENY FRONT FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...BUT THE
AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTIES KEEP THINGS TRICKY ELSEWHERE. IF UPPER
ENERGY DIGS FURTHER SOUTH...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS /PROBABLY RAIN GIVEN
A BIT OF A WARMUP/ WOULD BE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE WITH THE
CLIPPER PASSAGE.

AFTER THAT...HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS IN AND THINGS ARE
QUIET...BUT COLD...FOR THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE HINTS AT YET ANOTHER CLIPPER FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY. FOR NOW...I DID NOT PUT ANY PRECIP EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT...BUT I DID BRING IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW OUT WEST.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S AND 40S...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDS ACRS TERMINALS TDA. PCPN /LGT-MDT RA/ SHUD ENVELOP AREA BY
LT AFTN/EVE PUSH...PROGRESSING FM SW TO NE-- 21-23Z CHO TO 02-04Z
BWI/MTN. FLGT CONDS SHUD RAPIDLY DECLINE THRU MVFR TO IFR. XPCT IFR
CONDS OVNGT INTO THE BGNG OF MON MRNG PUSH...BEFORE GRDL IMPRVMNT
COMES. VFR SHUD RTN BY NOON MON.

WNDS WL ALSO BE A CONCERN...AS A 60-70 KT LOW LVL JET WL RESIDE AS
LOW AS 2K FT. THESE CONDS SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER LLWS MENTION FOR ALL
TAFS ELY MON MRNG. THINK SHEAR SHUD LESSEN BY SUNRISE MON. HWVR...
15-20 KT SUSTAINED SSWLY WNDS WL REMAIN THRU MOST OF DAY MON BEFORE
VEERING LT IN THE DAY.

WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND SHIFT FROM WESTERLY TO NORTHERLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO MOVE UP/OFF THE COAST ON
WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE IT IS...WINDS COULD STRENGTHEN.
GOOD CHANCE OF -RA AND/OR -SN WEDNESDAY. IF SNOW FALLS...LOW
CIGS/VSBY WOULD RESULT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY THURSDAY TO VFR.
&&

.MARINE...
SLY WNDS GNLY ARND 10 KT...ALTHO TPLM2 A PINCH HIER. DONT BELIEVE
WNDS WL DECR MUCH MORE THRU THE DAYLIGHT HRS SUN MRNG. THE P-GRAD WL
INCREASE SUN AFTN AS A WMFNT APPROACHES. HV EXPANDED SCA FOR THE
EVNG HRS TO INCL MOST OF THE BAY. A 60-70 LLJ WL PASS OVER WATERS LT
AT NGT. HWVR MIXING WL BE POOR...ASSISTED BY 50+ DEGF AIR TEMPS OVER
WATER TEMPS IN THE LWR-MID 40S. HV CAPPED WINDS AT 30 KT...HOLDING
OFF GLW MENTION. DAYSHIFT WL BE GIVING THIS MORE ATTN...AS THERE WL
BE A LOT OF WND NOT FAR OFF THE WATERS EDGE.

THE JET...AND THE WMFNT...WL PASS N OF THE WATERS MON MRNG BUT WNDS
WL INCR AGN MON AFTN AS THE CDFNT APPROACHES. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
LULL /RELATIVELY SPEAKING/...BUT THE GRADIENT WL SUPPORT 20-25 KT
WINDS MON AFTN. HV XTNDD SCA FOR ALL WATERS INTO MON.

LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING
ON TRACK OF LOW UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...SOME GUSTS TO SCA LEVEL
ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER MARYLAND BAY...ON WEDNESDAY.
MORE SCA-LEVEL GUSTS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BEHIND A
CLIPPER SYSTEM.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WINDS ON THE MID CHESAPEAKE BAY WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 MPH BY SUN
NIGHT. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE TEMP CONTRAST BETWEEN THE AIR AND
WATER...MUCH BETTER WINDS WILL BE CONFINED ALOFT. EVEN THE TYPICALLY
AGGRESSIVE CBOFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THERE WL BE NO WATER LVL
RISE WITH TIDES TODAY OR TONIGHT. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OF
COURSE...BUT EVEN IF THERE WERE MODEL ERRORS STILL DO NOT ANTICIPATE
ANY ISSUES.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ531>534-536-537-539>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ530-535-538.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...HTS/JE
MARINE...HTS/JE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 230840
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
340 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF CAPE HATTERAS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT OFFSHORE
THIS MORNING. A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BRING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HIPRES REMAINS OFF HSE ELY THIS MRNG. A SWATH OF LOW DEWPTS
RESIDES NW OF THIS RDG...FM THE MID ATLC UP THE SEABOARD TO DOWNEAST
ME. THIS DRY AIR HAS BEEN PROTECTING AREA FM PACKETS OF ISENT LIFT
AND ASSOCD PCPN CROSSING THE LWR GRTLKS. INSTEAD...THERE ARE PLENTY
OF MID-UPR DECK CLDS AND LGT SLY WINDS ACRS AREA.

THERE ARE TWO RGNS OF S/WV ENERGY IN THE SRN STREAM... ONE MVG
ONSHORE INVOF NWRN FL AND A HEALTHY VORT EMERGING INTO THE GLFMEX FM
CSTL TX. AS THESE S/WVS LIFT/DIG...H5 FLOW PTTN WL BECOME MORE
AMPLIFIED. THAT WL ALLOW A WMFNT TO APPRCH THE CWFA TDA. BELIEVE THE
FNT ITSELF WL REMAIN SW OF CWFA DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS. INSTEAD...
ENERGY WL BE FOCUSED TWD MSTNG THE DRY AMS. AM STILL HOPEFUL THAT
THERE WL BE SOME SUNSHN DURING THE MRNG/MIDDAY...BUT IT/LL BECOME
MASKED BY INCRSG CLDCVR. PCPN WL FLLW SOON THEREAFTER.

FOR THE FIRST PD...AM CONFINING LKLY POPS TO SWRN CWFA...GNLY SHD
SWD. THIS ISNT TOO DIFFERENT FM PRVS FCSTS. FURTHER...AM KEEPING
MOST OF MD-- ANYWHERE NE OF THE PTMC RIVER-- DRY. OBVIOUSLY...CHC
POPS IN BTWN. GFS/ECMWF HV A BETTER HANDLE THAN NAM ON EVOLUTION...
AS EVIDENCED BY COOL BIAS IN YDA FCST. AM USING A BLEND OF MAXT
DERIVED FM THOSE MDLS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
WMFNT WL LIFT ACRS CWFA TNGT...AIDED BY 60-70 KT LLJ BRINGING PWAT
VALUES UP TO ARND 1.5 IN. THUS...CAT POPS AREAWIDE FOR MOST OF THE
NGT...REACHING METRO BALT BY MID EVNG AND ENDING IN THE MTNS
PRE-DAWN. AM XPCTG A PD OF MDT RAFL IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS
TIMEFRAME...SPCLY FOR THE BLURDG EWD...WHICH WL HV THE ASSISTANCE OF
THE RDG LINE FOR ENHANCED LIFT. STORM TTL QPF BTWN 0.50-1.00 INCH...
BUT LOCALLY HIER CERTAINLY PSBL. CANT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
EITHER GIVEN SHEAR AND MODEST INSTBY /BEST LI SUBZERO SRN MD
06-09Z/. HV CONFINED SCHC SE OF I-95 FOR JUST A CPL HRS AFTR
MIDNGT.

THE WNDS WL CAUSE ANOTHER ISSUE FOR THE HILLS...AS THE JET MAY BE
DOWN AS LOW AS 1500-2000 FT. HWVR...MIXING SHUD BE RATHER POOR.
CONFIDENCE IN POSITION/HGT/STRENGTH FOR THE JET PRECLUDE AN ADVY
ATTM...HWVR THE THREAT ADEQUATE ENUF TO JUSTIFY INCLUSION IN HWO.

THE WMFNT SHUD LIFT N OF CWFA BY DAYBREAK...TAKING ANY PCPN ACRS THE
DELMARVA. HV KEPT A CHC OF PCPN INTO MID-MRNG TO ACCT FOR ANY TIMING
DIFFS. OTRW...THERE/S NOT A LOT OF FORCING FOR SVRL HRS TIL THE
ATTENDENT CDFNT ARRIVES. THEREFORE...HV WHITTLED OUT A BREEZY BUT
DRY PD DURING THE MIDDAY. EVEN WHEN THE CDFNT DOES MAKE IT HERE
/LATE DAY/...THERES BAROCLINICITY BUT VIRTUALLY NO ULVL FORCING. AM
KEEPING ACCOMPANYING POPS IN THE 20-30 PCT RANGE.

H8 TEMPS PEAK ARND 14C AT 12Z MON MRNG. THEREFORE...WUDNT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE MIN-T BE LESS THAN DIURNAL. HV TAKEN THE WARMER END
OF MOS TO COMPOSE MIN-T GRID...MID 40S TO LWR 50S. HV SIDED
SIMILARLY WARM FOR MAXT MON. TEMPS 70+ SHUD PREVAIL E OF THE BLURDG
MON.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY SWING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...
USHERING IN A DRYING WEST WIND...BUT STILL SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS...
PROBABLY MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN GIVEN THE WARM STARTING
CONDITIONS. IF THE UPSLOPE OPPORTUNITY LINGERS LATER INTO THE
NIGHT...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

DESPITE A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT REBOUND MUCH ON
TUESDAY...REACHING JUST THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S. THE ALLEGHENY FRONT
REMAINS IN THE 30S ALL DAY DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...EVERY
DAY AFTER TUESDAY THIS WEEK WILL BE EVEN COLDER.

THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH HERE MONDAY NIGHT WILL GET HELD UP
IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY A STRONG UPPER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SFC
HIGH. MODELS THEN INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
FRONT AS UPPER ENERGY DIGS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. FROM THERE...
UNCERTAINTY RAPIDLY INCREASES. DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE LOW IS TO
THE COAST...PART OR ALL OF THE AREA WILL SEE PRECIPITATION SPREAD IN
TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AND OF COURSE...SFC
TEMPS ARE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING PART OF THE TIME...AND POTENTIAL
SOLUTIONS ALOFT RUN A WIDE RANGE. THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES ON
TOP OF ALL OF THAT TOO. OUR FRIENDS AT WPC NOTE...AS WE DO...THAT
THE DIFFERENCES HAVE A LINK TO AN UPSTREAM CLIPPER SYSTEM AND HOW IT
PLAYS INTO THE MOTION/EVOLUTION OF THE COASTAL STORM. THE BOTTOM
LINE IS THAT ALL SOLUTIONS ARE STILL ON THE TABLE...FROM NOT MUCH OF
ANYTHING TO ACCUMULATING SNOW. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GENERIC
RAIN-OR-SNOW MENTION BUT WITH INCREASED POPS. LATER TODAY...OUR
PROBABILISTIC SNOW FORECASTS WILL GO THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME...SO WE
WILL AT LEAST HAVE A GOALPOST AND PROBABILISTIC REFERENCES OF
CERTAINTY THEN.

WHATEVER DOES OR DOES NOT HAPPEN WEDNESDAY...THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY
PULL AWAY...LEAVING A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WESTERLIES BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL FAVOR UPSLOPE
SNOW ON THE ALLEGHENY FRONT FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...BUT THE
AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTIES KEEP THINGS TRICKY ELSEWHERE. IF UPPER
ENERGY DIGS FURTHER SOUTH...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS /PROBABLY RAIN GIVEN
A BIT OF A WARMUP/ WOULD BE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE WITH THE
CLIPPER PASSAGE.

AFTER THAT...HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS IN AND THINGS ARE
QUIET...BUT COLD...FOR THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE HINTS AT YET ANOTHER CLIPPER FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY. FOR NOW...I DID NOT PUT ANY PRECIP EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT...BUT I DID BRING IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW OUT WEST.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S AND 40S...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDS ACRS TERMINALS TDA. PCPN /LGT-MDT RA/ SHUD ENVELOP AREA BY
LT AFTN/EVE PUSH...PROGRESSING FM SW TO NE-- 21-23Z CHO TO 02-04Z
BWI/MTN. FLGT CONDS SHUD RAPIDLY DECLINE THRU MVFR TO IFR. XPCT IFR
CONDS OVNGT INTO THE BGNG OF MON MRNG PUSH...BEFORE GRDL IMPRVMNT
COMES. VFR SHUD RTN BY NOON MON.

WNDS WL ALSO BE A CONCERN...AS A 60-70 KT LOW LVL JET WL RESIDE AS
LOW AS 2K FT. THESE CONDS SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER LLWS MENTION FOR ALL
TAFS ELY MON MRNG. THINK SHEAR SHUD LESSEN BY SUNRISE MON. HWVR...
15-20 KT SUSTAINED SSWLY WNDS WL REMAIN THRU MOST OF DAY MON BEFORE
VEERING LT IN THE DAY.

WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND SHIFT FROM WESTERLY TO NORTHERLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO MOVE UP/OFF THE COAST ON
WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE IT IS...WINDS COULD STRENGTHEN.
GOOD CHANCE OF -RA AND/OR -SN WEDNESDAY. IF SNOW FALLS...LOW
CIGS/VSBY WOULD RESULT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY THURSDAY TO VFR.
&&

.MARINE...
SLY WNDS GNLY ARND 10 KT...ALTHO TPLM2 A PINCH HIER. DONT BELIEVE
WNDS WL DECR MUCH MORE THRU THE DAYLIGHT HRS SUN MRNG. THE P-GRAD WL
INCREASE SUN AFTN AS A WMFNT APPROACHES. HV EXPANDED SCA FOR THE
EVNG HRS TO INCL MOST OF THE BAY. A 60-70 LLJ WL PASS OVER WATERS LT
AT NGT. HWVR MIXING WL BE POOR...ASSISTED BY 50+ DEGF AIR TEMPS OVER
WATER TEMPS IN THE LWR-MID 40S. HV CAPPED WINDS AT 30 KT...HOLDING
OFF GLW MENTION. DAYSHIFT WL BE GIVING THIS MORE ATTN...AS THERE WL
BE A LOT OF WND NOT FAR OFF THE WATERS EDGE.

THE JET...AND THE WMFNT...WL PASS N OF THE WATERS MON MRNG BUT WNDS
WL INCR AGN MON AFTN AS THE CDFNT APPROACHES. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
LULL /RELATIVELY SPEAKING/...BUT THE GRADIENT WL SUPPORT 20-25 KT
WINDS MON AFTN. HV XTNDD SCA FOR ALL WATERS INTO MON.

LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING
ON TRACK OF LOW UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...SOME GUSTS TO SCA LEVEL
ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER MARYLAND BAY...ON WEDNESDAY.
MORE SCA-LEVEL GUSTS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BEHIND A
CLIPPER SYSTEM.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WINDS ON THE MID CHESAPEAKE BAY WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 MPH BY SUN
NIGHT. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE TEMP CONTRAST BETWEEN THE AIR AND
WATER...MUCH BETTER WINDS WILL BE CONFINED ALOFT. EVEN THE TYPICALLY
AGGRESSIVE CBOFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THERE WL BE NO WATER LVL
RISE WITH TIDES TODAY OR TONIGHT. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OF
COURSE...BUT EVEN IF THERE WERE MODEL ERRORS STILL DO NOT ANTICIPATE
ANY ISSUES.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ531>534-536-537-539>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ530-535-538.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...HTS/JE
MARINE...HTS/JE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230746
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
246 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE EAST
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SFC HI PRES NOW OFF THE CST...WILL CONT TO SLO DRIFT E AWAY FM THE
CST THROUGH TDA. CLOUDS CONT TO INCRS...THICKEN...AND LWR FM THE
SW AS GULF COAST MOISTURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFT NE
THROUGH THE SE CONUS...AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. XPCG MUCH OF THE DAY TO BE DRY...BUT
SOME RAIN SHOULD ARRIVE IN FAR SW PORTIONS OF LATE IN THE DAY.
WILL CONT W/ INCRSG POPS TO 50-60% POPS SW LATE IN THE DAY...W/
RIBBON OF 30-40% POP FROM THE NW PIEDMONT THROUGH NE NC. HI TEMPS
RANGING FM THE M50S NW TO L60S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WITH STRONG VERTICAL MOTION WILL CROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TNGT. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE (PWTRS INCRSG TO 1.5 TO
2 IN 00-06Z/24 PER 00Z/23 GFS) WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT DUE TO A
STRONG NEARLY 70KT LLJ. POPS FOR RAIN DURING THE 12HR PERIOD TNGT
WILL CONT AT 100%. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
COASTAL NE NC (NOT READY TO ADD TO OTHER AREAS - ESP ERN VA/LWR SE
MD BUT WOULDN`T RULE IT OUT)...AND SPC HAS OUTLINED THAT AREA
(CSTL NE NC) IN SLGT CHC SVR. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
6HR PRESSURE FALLS OF -6MB TO -10MB GFS WILL RESULT IN
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF THE COAST.
GUSTS FROM THE SSE DIRECTION OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. LO
TEMPS TNGT SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 50S...WITH READINGS LIKELY TO
RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG FORCING AND SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE
SHOULD RESULT IN A ~6HR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
RAIN TNGT...WITH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS AVERAGING 0.5 TO 0.75 IN
N/CNTRL AND 1.00-1.25 IN NR THE CST (AND NE NC).

THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NNE OF THE REGION BY 12Z/25...W/ A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING TOWARD THE FAR WRN COUNTIES BY 00Z TUE. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE MON MORNING...WITH A GUSTY SW WIND
DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S (SEE THE
THE CLIMO SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS). WILL LIMIT ANY POPS TO FAR
ESE AREAS OF FA AS 00Z/23 NAM RMNS OUTLIER IN LINGERING MOISTURE
ACRS THOSE LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT AND TUE. PARTIAL
CLEARING IS XPCD INLAND...WITH PSBL CLOUDS LINGERING RIGHT ALG THE
COAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER TUE. HIGHS TUE
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO LOW 60S SE...AFTER MORNING
LOWS FROM THE MID 40S NW...TO LOW/MID 50S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z/23 RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF COMING MORE INTO LINE WRT PTNTL
LO PRES DEVELOPING ALG STALLED FNTL BNDRY NR THE SE CONUS CST LT
TUE/TUE NGT...THEN TRACKING NNE ALG THE CST WED INTO WED NGT. A
BUSY PD OF TRAVEL MIDWEEK INCRSLY LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY
RA...AND AS PTNTL CSTL STM WINDS DOWN (LT WED/WED NGT)...MDL TEMP
PROFILES SUGGEST PSBL RA ENDING AS WET SN INLAND. HAVE NUDGED POPS
UP TO 70-80% E PORTION W...40-60% INLAND ON WED.

PCPN/MOIST THEN MOVES E OF THE AREA AND OFF THE CST LATER WED
WED NGT...WITH POPS DIMINISHING FM W TO E. A MAINLY DRY FRONT
SWINGS ACRS THE AREA THU AFTN INTO EARLY FRI MORNG. HI PRES WILL
THEN BLD INTO AND OVR THE REGION FRI THRU SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE L40S W AND M/U40S E WED...IN THE U40S TO L50S THU...IN THE
M/U40S FRI...AND RANGE THRU THE 40S SAT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S TO LWR 40S WED MORNG...IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S THU AND
FRI MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S SAT MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONT ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL PERSIST INTO SUN
MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVD OFFSHORE OF VA/NC AND WNDS
AROUND THE HIGH ARE SE-SW OVER THE REGION AND GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 KTS. MEANWHILE...LOTS OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE SE AND GULF STATES
WILL PUSH NORTH INTO THE MID ATL REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
SUN.

A MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL HELP FORM A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE SE US AS THE MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVES NE OUT OF THE GOMEX
ON SUN. THIS WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE MOISTURE AS A WARM FRONT
SURGES THROUGH THE AREA SUN NIGHT. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS(POSSIBLY
LOWER) DUE TO LOWERED CEILINGS AND REDUCED VIS DUE TO RAIN.
ALSO...WIND GUST TO 35KT MAY BE POSSIBLE MON MORNING AS THE SYSTEM
DEEPENS OVER THE AREA. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE OVER NE NC/SE VA.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE HOISTED SCA`S FOR THE ENTIRE WTRS STARTING SUN EVENG...AND
LASTING THRU MON AFTN/EVENG OR MON NGT FOR THE CHES BAY/CURRITUCK
SND AND THE CSTL WTRS. HI PRES SLIDES OUT TO SEA DURING SUN...WITH
LO PRES MOVNG FM THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY NNE THRU THE GRT LKS AND
INTO ERN CANADA SUN EVENG INTO MON NGT. SE OR S WINDS WILL
INCREASE ACRS THE WTRS/REGION LATE SUN INTO MON MORNG IN ADVANCE
OF A COLD FRONT. SE OR S WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO/ARND
30 KNOTS EXPECTED SUN EVENG INTO MON EVENG...WITH WAVES BLDNG TO 3
TO 5 FT IN THE CHES BAY...AND SEAS BLDNG TO 5 TO 8 FEET ON THE
CSTL WTRS. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WTRS MON NGT...WITH CALMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE INTO TUE NGT. STRONG NE OR N WINDS THEN
EXPECTED WED INTO WED NGT...AS LO PRES TRACKS NWRD JUST OFF THE
EAST CST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED MONDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

RIC 76 1979
ORF 78 1983
SBY 78 1931
ECG 77 1983

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     MONDAY FOR ANZ633-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
     MONDAY FOR ANZ630>632.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...ALB/TMG
AVIATION...DAP/JEF
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...AKQ













































000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230746
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
246 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE EAST
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SFC HI PRES NOW OFF THE CST...WILL CONT TO SLO DRIFT E AWAY FM THE
CST THROUGH TDA. CLOUDS CONT TO INCRS...THICKEN...AND LWR FM THE
SW AS GULF COAST MOISTURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFT NE
THROUGH THE SE CONUS...AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. XPCG MUCH OF THE DAY TO BE DRY...BUT
SOME RAIN SHOULD ARRIVE IN FAR SW PORTIONS OF LATE IN THE DAY.
WILL CONT W/ INCRSG POPS TO 50-60% POPS SW LATE IN THE DAY...W/
RIBBON OF 30-40% POP FROM THE NW PIEDMONT THROUGH NE NC. HI TEMPS
RANGING FM THE M50S NW TO L60S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WITH STRONG VERTICAL MOTION WILL CROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TNGT. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE (PWTRS INCRSG TO 1.5 TO
2 IN 00-06Z/24 PER 00Z/23 GFS) WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT DUE TO A
STRONG NEARLY 70KT LLJ. POPS FOR RAIN DURING THE 12HR PERIOD TNGT
WILL CONT AT 100%. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
COASTAL NE NC (NOT READY TO ADD TO OTHER AREAS - ESP ERN VA/LWR SE
MD BUT WOULDN`T RULE IT OUT)...AND SPC HAS OUTLINED THAT AREA
(CSTL NE NC) IN SLGT CHC SVR. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
6HR PRESSURE FALLS OF -6MB TO -10MB GFS WILL RESULT IN
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF THE COAST.
GUSTS FROM THE SSE DIRECTION OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. LO
TEMPS TNGT SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 50S...WITH READINGS LIKELY TO
RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG FORCING AND SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE
SHOULD RESULT IN A ~6HR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
RAIN TNGT...WITH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS AVERAGING 0.5 TO 0.75 IN
N/CNTRL AND 1.00-1.25 IN NR THE CST (AND NE NC).

THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NNE OF THE REGION BY 12Z/25...W/ A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING TOWARD THE FAR WRN COUNTIES BY 00Z TUE. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE MON MORNING...WITH A GUSTY SW WIND
DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S (SEE THE
THE CLIMO SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS). WILL LIMIT ANY POPS TO FAR
ESE AREAS OF FA AS 00Z/23 NAM RMNS OUTLIER IN LINGERING MOISTURE
ACRS THOSE LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT AND TUE. PARTIAL
CLEARING IS XPCD INLAND...WITH PSBL CLOUDS LINGERING RIGHT ALG THE
COAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER TUE. HIGHS TUE
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO LOW 60S SE...AFTER MORNING
LOWS FROM THE MID 40S NW...TO LOW/MID 50S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z/23 RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF COMING MORE INTO LINE WRT PTNTL
LO PRES DEVELOPING ALG STALLED FNTL BNDRY NR THE SE CONUS CST LT
TUE/TUE NGT...THEN TRACKING NNE ALG THE CST WED INTO WED NGT. A
BUSY PD OF TRAVEL MIDWEEK INCRSLY LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY
RA...AND AS PTNTL CSTL STM WINDS DOWN (LT WED/WED NGT)...MDL TEMP
PROFILES SUGGEST PSBL RA ENDING AS WET SN INLAND. HAVE NUDGED POPS
UP TO 70-80% E PORTION W...40-60% INLAND ON WED.

PCPN/MOIST THEN MOVES E OF THE AREA AND OFF THE CST LATER WED
WED NGT...WITH POPS DIMINISHING FM W TO E. A MAINLY DRY FRONT
SWINGS ACRS THE AREA THU AFTN INTO EARLY FRI MORNG. HI PRES WILL
THEN BLD INTO AND OVR THE REGION FRI THRU SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE L40S W AND M/U40S E WED...IN THE U40S TO L50S THU...IN THE
M/U40S FRI...AND RANGE THRU THE 40S SAT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S TO LWR 40S WED MORNG...IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S THU AND
FRI MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S SAT MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONT ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL PERSIST INTO SUN
MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVD OFFSHORE OF VA/NC AND WNDS
AROUND THE HIGH ARE SE-SW OVER THE REGION AND GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 KTS. MEANWHILE...LOTS OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE SE AND GULF STATES
WILL PUSH NORTH INTO THE MID ATL REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
SUN.

A MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL HELP FORM A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE SE US AS THE MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVES NE OUT OF THE GOMEX
ON SUN. THIS WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE MOISTURE AS A WARM FRONT
SURGES THROUGH THE AREA SUN NIGHT. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS(POSSIBLY
LOWER) DUE TO LOWERED CEILINGS AND REDUCED VIS DUE TO RAIN.
ALSO...WIND GUST TO 35KT MAY BE POSSIBLE MON MORNING AS THE SYSTEM
DEEPENS OVER THE AREA. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE OVER NE NC/SE VA.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE HOISTED SCA`S FOR THE ENTIRE WTRS STARTING SUN EVENG...AND
LASTING THRU MON AFTN/EVENG OR MON NGT FOR THE CHES BAY/CURRITUCK
SND AND THE CSTL WTRS. HI PRES SLIDES OUT TO SEA DURING SUN...WITH
LO PRES MOVNG FM THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY NNE THRU THE GRT LKS AND
INTO ERN CANADA SUN EVENG INTO MON NGT. SE OR S WINDS WILL
INCREASE ACRS THE WTRS/REGION LATE SUN INTO MON MORNG IN ADVANCE
OF A COLD FRONT. SE OR S WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO/ARND
30 KNOTS EXPECTED SUN EVENG INTO MON EVENG...WITH WAVES BLDNG TO 3
TO 5 FT IN THE CHES BAY...AND SEAS BLDNG TO 5 TO 8 FEET ON THE
CSTL WTRS. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WTRS MON NGT...WITH CALMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE INTO TUE NGT. STRONG NE OR N WINDS THEN
EXPECTED WED INTO WED NGT...AS LO PRES TRACKS NWRD JUST OFF THE
EAST CST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED MONDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

RIC 76 1979
ORF 78 1983
SBY 78 1931
ECG 77 1983

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     MONDAY FOR ANZ633-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
     MONDAY FOR ANZ630>632.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...ALB/TMG
AVIATION...DAP/JEF
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...AKQ













































000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230746
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
246 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE EAST
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SFC HI PRES NOW OFF THE CST...WILL CONT TO SLO DRIFT E AWAY FM THE
CST THROUGH TDA. CLOUDS CONT TO INCRS...THICKEN...AND LWR FM THE
SW AS GULF COAST MOISTURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFT NE
THROUGH THE SE CONUS...AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. XPCG MUCH OF THE DAY TO BE DRY...BUT
SOME RAIN SHOULD ARRIVE IN FAR SW PORTIONS OF LATE IN THE DAY.
WILL CONT W/ INCRSG POPS TO 50-60% POPS SW LATE IN THE DAY...W/
RIBBON OF 30-40% POP FROM THE NW PIEDMONT THROUGH NE NC. HI TEMPS
RANGING FM THE M50S NW TO L60S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WITH STRONG VERTICAL MOTION WILL CROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TNGT. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE (PWTRS INCRSG TO 1.5 TO
2 IN 00-06Z/24 PER 00Z/23 GFS) WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT DUE TO A
STRONG NEARLY 70KT LLJ. POPS FOR RAIN DURING THE 12HR PERIOD TNGT
WILL CONT AT 100%. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
COASTAL NE NC (NOT READY TO ADD TO OTHER AREAS - ESP ERN VA/LWR SE
MD BUT WOULDN`T RULE IT OUT)...AND SPC HAS OUTLINED THAT AREA
(CSTL NE NC) IN SLGT CHC SVR. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
6HR PRESSURE FALLS OF -6MB TO -10MB GFS WILL RESULT IN
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF THE COAST.
GUSTS FROM THE SSE DIRECTION OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. LO
TEMPS TNGT SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 50S...WITH READINGS LIKELY TO
RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG FORCING AND SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE
SHOULD RESULT IN A ~6HR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
RAIN TNGT...WITH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS AVERAGING 0.5 TO 0.75 IN
N/CNTRL AND 1.00-1.25 IN NR THE CST (AND NE NC).

THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NNE OF THE REGION BY 12Z/25...W/ A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING TOWARD THE FAR WRN COUNTIES BY 00Z TUE. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE MON MORNING...WITH A GUSTY SW WIND
DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S (SEE THE
THE CLIMO SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS). WILL LIMIT ANY POPS TO FAR
ESE AREAS OF FA AS 00Z/23 NAM RMNS OUTLIER IN LINGERING MOISTURE
ACRS THOSE LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT AND TUE. PARTIAL
CLEARING IS XPCD INLAND...WITH PSBL CLOUDS LINGERING RIGHT ALG THE
COAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER TUE. HIGHS TUE
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO LOW 60S SE...AFTER MORNING
LOWS FROM THE MID 40S NW...TO LOW/MID 50S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z/23 RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF COMING MORE INTO LINE WRT PTNTL
LO PRES DEVELOPING ALG STALLED FNTL BNDRY NR THE SE CONUS CST LT
TUE/TUE NGT...THEN TRACKING NNE ALG THE CST WED INTO WED NGT. A
BUSY PD OF TRAVEL MIDWEEK INCRSLY LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY
RA...AND AS PTNTL CSTL STM WINDS DOWN (LT WED/WED NGT)...MDL TEMP
PROFILES SUGGEST PSBL RA ENDING AS WET SN INLAND. HAVE NUDGED POPS
UP TO 70-80% E PORTION W...40-60% INLAND ON WED.

PCPN/MOIST THEN MOVES E OF THE AREA AND OFF THE CST LATER WED
WED NGT...WITH POPS DIMINISHING FM W TO E. A MAINLY DRY FRONT
SWINGS ACRS THE AREA THU AFTN INTO EARLY FRI MORNG. HI PRES WILL
THEN BLD INTO AND OVR THE REGION FRI THRU SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE L40S W AND M/U40S E WED...IN THE U40S TO L50S THU...IN THE
M/U40S FRI...AND RANGE THRU THE 40S SAT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S TO LWR 40S WED MORNG...IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S THU AND
FRI MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S SAT MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONT ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL PERSIST INTO SUN
MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVD OFFSHORE OF VA/NC AND WNDS
AROUND THE HIGH ARE SE-SW OVER THE REGION AND GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 KTS. MEANWHILE...LOTS OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE SE AND GULF STATES
WILL PUSH NORTH INTO THE MID ATL REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
SUN.

A MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL HELP FORM A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE SE US AS THE MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVES NE OUT OF THE GOMEX
ON SUN. THIS WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE MOISTURE AS A WARM FRONT
SURGES THROUGH THE AREA SUN NIGHT. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS(POSSIBLY
LOWER) DUE TO LOWERED CEILINGS AND REDUCED VIS DUE TO RAIN.
ALSO...WIND GUST TO 35KT MAY BE POSSIBLE MON MORNING AS THE SYSTEM
DEEPENS OVER THE AREA. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE OVER NE NC/SE VA.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE HOISTED SCA`S FOR THE ENTIRE WTRS STARTING SUN EVENG...AND
LASTING THRU MON AFTN/EVENG OR MON NGT FOR THE CHES BAY/CURRITUCK
SND AND THE CSTL WTRS. HI PRES SLIDES OUT TO SEA DURING SUN...WITH
LO PRES MOVNG FM THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY NNE THRU THE GRT LKS AND
INTO ERN CANADA SUN EVENG INTO MON NGT. SE OR S WINDS WILL
INCREASE ACRS THE WTRS/REGION LATE SUN INTO MON MORNG IN ADVANCE
OF A COLD FRONT. SE OR S WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO/ARND
30 KNOTS EXPECTED SUN EVENG INTO MON EVENG...WITH WAVES BLDNG TO 3
TO 5 FT IN THE CHES BAY...AND SEAS BLDNG TO 5 TO 8 FEET ON THE
CSTL WTRS. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WTRS MON NGT...WITH CALMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE INTO TUE NGT. STRONG NE OR N WINDS THEN
EXPECTED WED INTO WED NGT...AS LO PRES TRACKS NWRD JUST OFF THE
EAST CST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED MONDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

RIC 76 1979
ORF 78 1983
SBY 78 1931
ECG 77 1983

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     MONDAY FOR ANZ633-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
     MONDAY FOR ANZ630>632.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...ALB/TMG
AVIATION...DAP/JEF
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...AKQ













































000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230746
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
246 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE EAST
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SFC HI PRES NOW OFF THE CST...WILL CONT TO SLO DRIFT E AWAY FM THE
CST THROUGH TDA. CLOUDS CONT TO INCRS...THICKEN...AND LWR FM THE
SW AS GULF COAST MOISTURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFT NE
THROUGH THE SE CONUS...AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. XPCG MUCH OF THE DAY TO BE DRY...BUT
SOME RAIN SHOULD ARRIVE IN FAR SW PORTIONS OF LATE IN THE DAY.
WILL CONT W/ INCRSG POPS TO 50-60% POPS SW LATE IN THE DAY...W/
RIBBON OF 30-40% POP FROM THE NW PIEDMONT THROUGH NE NC. HI TEMPS
RANGING FM THE M50S NW TO L60S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WITH STRONG VERTICAL MOTION WILL CROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TNGT. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE (PWTRS INCRSG TO 1.5 TO
2 IN 00-06Z/24 PER 00Z/23 GFS) WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT DUE TO A
STRONG NEARLY 70KT LLJ. POPS FOR RAIN DURING THE 12HR PERIOD TNGT
WILL CONT AT 100%. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
COASTAL NE NC (NOT READY TO ADD TO OTHER AREAS - ESP ERN VA/LWR SE
MD BUT WOULDN`T RULE IT OUT)...AND SPC HAS OUTLINED THAT AREA
(CSTL NE NC) IN SLGT CHC SVR. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
6HR PRESSURE FALLS OF -6MB TO -10MB GFS WILL RESULT IN
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF THE COAST.
GUSTS FROM THE SSE DIRECTION OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. LO
TEMPS TNGT SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 50S...WITH READINGS LIKELY TO
RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG FORCING AND SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE
SHOULD RESULT IN A ~6HR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
RAIN TNGT...WITH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS AVERAGING 0.5 TO 0.75 IN
N/CNTRL AND 1.00-1.25 IN NR THE CST (AND NE NC).

THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NNE OF THE REGION BY 12Z/25...W/ A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING TOWARD THE FAR WRN COUNTIES BY 00Z TUE. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE MON MORNING...WITH A GUSTY SW WIND
DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S (SEE THE
THE CLIMO SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS). WILL LIMIT ANY POPS TO FAR
ESE AREAS OF FA AS 00Z/23 NAM RMNS OUTLIER IN LINGERING MOISTURE
ACRS THOSE LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT AND TUE. PARTIAL
CLEARING IS XPCD INLAND...WITH PSBL CLOUDS LINGERING RIGHT ALG THE
COAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER TUE. HIGHS TUE
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO LOW 60S SE...AFTER MORNING
LOWS FROM THE MID 40S NW...TO LOW/MID 50S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z/23 RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF COMING MORE INTO LINE WRT PTNTL
LO PRES DEVELOPING ALG STALLED FNTL BNDRY NR THE SE CONUS CST LT
TUE/TUE NGT...THEN TRACKING NNE ALG THE CST WED INTO WED NGT. A
BUSY PD OF TRAVEL MIDWEEK INCRSLY LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY
RA...AND AS PTNTL CSTL STM WINDS DOWN (LT WED/WED NGT)...MDL TEMP
PROFILES SUGGEST PSBL RA ENDING AS WET SN INLAND. HAVE NUDGED POPS
UP TO 70-80% E PORTION W...40-60% INLAND ON WED.

PCPN/MOIST THEN MOVES E OF THE AREA AND OFF THE CST LATER WED
WED NGT...WITH POPS DIMINISHING FM W TO E. A MAINLY DRY FRONT
SWINGS ACRS THE AREA THU AFTN INTO EARLY FRI MORNG. HI PRES WILL
THEN BLD INTO AND OVR THE REGION FRI THRU SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE L40S W AND M/U40S E WED...IN THE U40S TO L50S THU...IN THE
M/U40S FRI...AND RANGE THRU THE 40S SAT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S TO LWR 40S WED MORNG...IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S THU AND
FRI MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S SAT MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONT ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL PERSIST INTO SUN
MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVD OFFSHORE OF VA/NC AND WNDS
AROUND THE HIGH ARE SE-SW OVER THE REGION AND GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 KTS. MEANWHILE...LOTS OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE SE AND GULF STATES
WILL PUSH NORTH INTO THE MID ATL REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
SUN.

A MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL HELP FORM A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE SE US AS THE MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVES NE OUT OF THE GOMEX
ON SUN. THIS WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE MOISTURE AS A WARM FRONT
SURGES THROUGH THE AREA SUN NIGHT. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS(POSSIBLY
LOWER) DUE TO LOWERED CEILINGS AND REDUCED VIS DUE TO RAIN.
ALSO...WIND GUST TO 35KT MAY BE POSSIBLE MON MORNING AS THE SYSTEM
DEEPENS OVER THE AREA. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE OVER NE NC/SE VA.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE HOISTED SCA`S FOR THE ENTIRE WTRS STARTING SUN EVENG...AND
LASTING THRU MON AFTN/EVENG OR MON NGT FOR THE CHES BAY/CURRITUCK
SND AND THE CSTL WTRS. HI PRES SLIDES OUT TO SEA DURING SUN...WITH
LO PRES MOVNG FM THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY NNE THRU THE GRT LKS AND
INTO ERN CANADA SUN EVENG INTO MON NGT. SE OR S WINDS WILL
INCREASE ACRS THE WTRS/REGION LATE SUN INTO MON MORNG IN ADVANCE
OF A COLD FRONT. SE OR S WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO/ARND
30 KNOTS EXPECTED SUN EVENG INTO MON EVENG...WITH WAVES BLDNG TO 3
TO 5 FT IN THE CHES BAY...AND SEAS BLDNG TO 5 TO 8 FEET ON THE
CSTL WTRS. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WTRS MON NGT...WITH CALMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE INTO TUE NGT. STRONG NE OR N WINDS THEN
EXPECTED WED INTO WED NGT...AS LO PRES TRACKS NWRD JUST OFF THE
EAST CST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED MONDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

RIC 76 1979
ORF 78 1983
SBY 78 1931
ECG 77 1983

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     MONDAY FOR ANZ633-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
     MONDAY FOR ANZ630>632.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...ALB/TMG
AVIATION...DAP/JEF
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...AKQ













































000
FXUS61 KRNK 230539
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1239 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THEN...A STORM SYSTEM MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND CENTRAL MID
ATLANTIC REGION...BRINGING WET AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
TUESDAY...RETURNING TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REST OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 930 PM EST SATURDAY...

VERY DRY AIRMASS...LACK OF CLOUDS AND LIGHTER WINDS HAVE ALLOWED
TEMPS TO FALL FASTER THIS EVENING THAN FORECAST...AND HAVE ALLOWED
FOR COLDER LOWS...WITH 20S IN THE EAST AND DEEPER VALLEYS IN THE
WEST. SHIELD OF THICKER HIGH CLOUDS STARTING TO EDGE NEWD FROM THE
GULF COAST STATES...BUT MODELS SHOW THEM DISSIPATING SOME AS THEY
HEAD INTO THIS DRIER AIRMASS. BACKED OFF THE TIMING ON POPS IN THE
NC MTNS TIL DAWN OR THEREAFTER SUNDAY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL FOR SLEET...BUT AS TEMPS WARM LATE WITH CLOUDS WILL SEE
MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. IN
ADVANCE OF A BROAD TROF WILL CURVES OUT IN THE CENTRAL U.S. SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...LEADING SHORTWAVE WILL TAKE ON A STRONG NEGATIVE TILT
AND ROTATE OUT OF THE ARKLATEX REGION TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD OVERRUNNING RAIN. SHAPED TIMING AND POPS
FOR RAIN TOWARDS A BLEND OF GFS...NAM AND HIRESW-ARW WITH MOISTURE
SPREADING QUICKLY UP THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE WITH THE ISENTROPIC
LIFT.

WINDS ARE ANOTHER CONCERN WITH A 70-80KT LLJ TRAVERSES THE AREA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE WARM FRONT/UPPER TROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH WINDS NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND
SMYTH/TAZEWELL/MERCER REGION WITH THE STRONG LLJ. SOME MODERATE
RAIN MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS WITH
UPSLOPE COMPONENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 50S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EST SATURDAY...

BROAD SOUTHWEST 500 MB FLOW ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WELL DEFINED
VORTICITY MAXIMUM TRACK FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY MORNING.

STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND IMPRESSIVE UPSLOPE WINDS SUNDAY
EVENING WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ON THE EAST
SLOPES AND FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE RIDGE. PLUS THE SOUTHEAST WIND WILL
BE ADVECTING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES UP THE
RIDGES. AXIS OF CONVERGENCE CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA BY 06Z/1AM
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SHARP DRY SLOT IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING.

IN-SITU WEDGE ERODES ONCE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS WITH STRONG WARM
AIR ADVECTION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. BEHIND THE RAIN ON
MONDAY 850 MB TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE +10 TO +12
RANGE. BUT BY THE END OF THE DAY THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED
EAST THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS BRING THE 850 MB FRONT THROUGH DURING
THE EVENING. EXPECTING A NON DIURNAL RISE IN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
NIGHT THEN ABOVE NORMAL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

THE BIG PUSH OF COLDER AIR COMES IN TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE COUNTY WARNING AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH LATE TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL RESULT IN EAST WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS WILL BRING DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA AS WELL AS A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. HOW FAR WEST THE PRECIPITATION WILL REACH
WAS STILL QUESTIONABLE. IF PRECIPITATION EXTENDS ALL THE WAY TO THE
BLUE RIDGE...TEMPERATURES MAY BE COLD ENOUGH ON THE WESTERN EDGE TO
HAVE SNOW OR A RAIN SNOW MIX. TOO SOON TO TELL IF THERE WILL BE ANY
PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY FALLING...MUCH LESS ANY AMOUNTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EST SATURDAY...

TWO DISTINCT SYSTEMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR BRING SOME PRECIPITATION
TO PARTS OF THE AREA DURING THIS SEGMENT OF THE FORECAST. THE FIRST
ITEM OF INTEREST IS A LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG A
BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT WILL BE POSITIONED ALONG THE COAST DURING THE
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE
STILL INCONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER...AND WITH THEIR OWN PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS REGARDING THE TIMING...TRACK AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS FEATURE. YESTERDAY...THE ECWMF WAS THE ONLY OPERATIONAL
MODEL RUN THAT HINTED AT PRECIPITATION SKIRTING THE EASTERN EXTENT
OF THE FORECAST AREA. TODAY...ITS SOLUTIONS IS MORE ROBUST ON THIS
SCENARIO WITH PRECIPITATION NOW THE WHOLE WAY WEST TO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. TODAY...THE GFS SOLUTION IS ONLY SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST AS
COMPARED TO THE ECWMF FROM YESTERDAY...BUT STILL...HAS ALL BUT OUR
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES WITH AT LEAST 0.01 PRECIP. THE
CANADIAN SOLUTION KEEPS THE SYSTEM FARTHER OFF THE COAST WITH NOT A
DROP OF PRECIPITATION REACHING THE FORECAST AREA. OUR FORECAST FROM
YESTERDAY REFLECTED A MODEL BLEND CONSENSUS THAT WAS MORE IN LINE
WITH THE WETTER ECWMF SOLUTION. GIVEN BOTH THE GFS AND ECWMF ARE
WETTER FOR THE REGION...AND THE MODEL BLEND CONSENSUS IS ALSO WETTER
ACROSS THE REGION...HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT IN THE FORECAST.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO REFLECT 50
PERCENT IN THE EAST...WITH 20 TO 25 PERCENT IN THE WEST. SURFACE AND
LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MAINLY A SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW
FORECAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY...WITH PRIMARILY RAIN
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR ARRIVING ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR MORE LIGHT
SNOW...BUT WITH THE SYSTEM EXITING...MUCH LESS COVERAGE.

OUT NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT ZIPS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION
DURING THE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECWMF SOLUTIONS HAVE CHANGED COMPARED TO THEIR -24 HOUR
COUNTERPARTS. PRIOR...MODEL SOLUTIONS WERE HINTING AT A MORE
PROLONGED CLOSED LOW STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
WITH A MORE PROFOUND SHOT OF COLDER AIR IN ITS WAKE. THE LATEST
SOLUTIONS OFFER A MORE GLANCING BLOW OF ENERGY ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH THE COLDER AIR NOT HAVING AS MUCH CHANCE TO MAKE THE
TURN SOUTH PRIOR TO ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE
OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WHILE THE FORECAST WILL STILL OFFER SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL BE A BIT MILDER THAN WHAT AS OFFERED IN THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM EST SUNDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN HANDLING OF UPCOMING
SYSTEM. STILL ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE AIRMASS MOISTENS UP AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE MID MISS VALLEY BRING A WARM FRONT ACROSS BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON AT MOST SITES
WITH LIGHT RAIN FOLLOWING CLOSE BEHIND. EXPECT PERIODS OF MDT AND
HEAVY RAIN FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...
ALONG WITH TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS. CONTINUING TO MONITOR POTENTIAL
LOW LVL WIND SHEAR AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO AOA 60KTS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WILL NOT MENTION IN THIS PACKAGE BUT WILL INCLUDE WITH THE
12Z ISSUANCE IF NEEDED.

LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND
GUSTY SUNDAY. WINDS AT BLF MAY STAY UP A BIT TONIGHT AS
THE INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AND WARM FRONT START TO
BE FELT.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

RAIN AND WIND CONTINUE WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT.
A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR DURING MONDAY OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A
DRY SLOT DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE EXITING FRONT FROM SUNDAY AND THE
NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. MONDAY INTO TUESDAY LOOK TO FEATURE
QUITE A BIT OF WIND. NW FLOW INTO MAY KEEP SUB VFR CIGS INTO BLF
AND POSSIBLE LWB...WITH VFR TO THE EAST. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
WHICH MAY BRING WINTRY PRECIP TO THE AREA ALONG WITH SUB VFR AT
ALL SITES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 215 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WILL BE OUT
OF SERVICE UNTIL PARTS ARRIVE TO REPLACE THE SENSOR. UNTIL THEN
THE VISIBILITY WILL ONLY BE REPORTED WHEN THE CONTROL TOWER IS
STAFFED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/MBS
NEAR TERM...KK/MBS/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...MBS/KK/WP
EQUIPMENT...RAB



000
FXUS61 KRNK 230539
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1239 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THEN...A STORM SYSTEM MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND CENTRAL MID
ATLANTIC REGION...BRINGING WET AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
TUESDAY...RETURNING TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REST OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 930 PM EST SATURDAY...

VERY DRY AIRMASS...LACK OF CLOUDS AND LIGHTER WINDS HAVE ALLOWED
TEMPS TO FALL FASTER THIS EVENING THAN FORECAST...AND HAVE ALLOWED
FOR COLDER LOWS...WITH 20S IN THE EAST AND DEEPER VALLEYS IN THE
WEST. SHIELD OF THICKER HIGH CLOUDS STARTING TO EDGE NEWD FROM THE
GULF COAST STATES...BUT MODELS SHOW THEM DISSIPATING SOME AS THEY
HEAD INTO THIS DRIER AIRMASS. BACKED OFF THE TIMING ON POPS IN THE
NC MTNS TIL DAWN OR THEREAFTER SUNDAY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL FOR SLEET...BUT AS TEMPS WARM LATE WITH CLOUDS WILL SEE
MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. IN
ADVANCE OF A BROAD TROF WILL CURVES OUT IN THE CENTRAL U.S. SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...LEADING SHORTWAVE WILL TAKE ON A STRONG NEGATIVE TILT
AND ROTATE OUT OF THE ARKLATEX REGION TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD OVERRUNNING RAIN. SHAPED TIMING AND POPS
FOR RAIN TOWARDS A BLEND OF GFS...NAM AND HIRESW-ARW WITH MOISTURE
SPREADING QUICKLY UP THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE WITH THE ISENTROPIC
LIFT.

WINDS ARE ANOTHER CONCERN WITH A 70-80KT LLJ TRAVERSES THE AREA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE WARM FRONT/UPPER TROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH WINDS NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND
SMYTH/TAZEWELL/MERCER REGION WITH THE STRONG LLJ. SOME MODERATE
RAIN MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS WITH
UPSLOPE COMPONENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 50S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EST SATURDAY...

BROAD SOUTHWEST 500 MB FLOW ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WELL DEFINED
VORTICITY MAXIMUM TRACK FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY MORNING.

STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND IMPRESSIVE UPSLOPE WINDS SUNDAY
EVENING WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ON THE EAST
SLOPES AND FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE RIDGE. PLUS THE SOUTHEAST WIND WILL
BE ADVECTING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES UP THE
RIDGES. AXIS OF CONVERGENCE CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA BY 06Z/1AM
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SHARP DRY SLOT IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING.

IN-SITU WEDGE ERODES ONCE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS WITH STRONG WARM
AIR ADVECTION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. BEHIND THE RAIN ON
MONDAY 850 MB TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE +10 TO +12
RANGE. BUT BY THE END OF THE DAY THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED
EAST THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS BRING THE 850 MB FRONT THROUGH DURING
THE EVENING. EXPECTING A NON DIURNAL RISE IN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
NIGHT THEN ABOVE NORMAL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

THE BIG PUSH OF COLDER AIR COMES IN TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE COUNTY WARNING AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH LATE TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL RESULT IN EAST WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS WILL BRING DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA AS WELL AS A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. HOW FAR WEST THE PRECIPITATION WILL REACH
WAS STILL QUESTIONABLE. IF PRECIPITATION EXTENDS ALL THE WAY TO THE
BLUE RIDGE...TEMPERATURES MAY BE COLD ENOUGH ON THE WESTERN EDGE TO
HAVE SNOW OR A RAIN SNOW MIX. TOO SOON TO TELL IF THERE WILL BE ANY
PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY FALLING...MUCH LESS ANY AMOUNTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EST SATURDAY...

TWO DISTINCT SYSTEMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR BRING SOME PRECIPITATION
TO PARTS OF THE AREA DURING THIS SEGMENT OF THE FORECAST. THE FIRST
ITEM OF INTEREST IS A LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG A
BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT WILL BE POSITIONED ALONG THE COAST DURING THE
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE
STILL INCONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER...AND WITH THEIR OWN PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS REGARDING THE TIMING...TRACK AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS FEATURE. YESTERDAY...THE ECWMF WAS THE ONLY OPERATIONAL
MODEL RUN THAT HINTED AT PRECIPITATION SKIRTING THE EASTERN EXTENT
OF THE FORECAST AREA. TODAY...ITS SOLUTIONS IS MORE ROBUST ON THIS
SCENARIO WITH PRECIPITATION NOW THE WHOLE WAY WEST TO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. TODAY...THE GFS SOLUTION IS ONLY SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST AS
COMPARED TO THE ECWMF FROM YESTERDAY...BUT STILL...HAS ALL BUT OUR
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES WITH AT LEAST 0.01 PRECIP. THE
CANADIAN SOLUTION KEEPS THE SYSTEM FARTHER OFF THE COAST WITH NOT A
DROP OF PRECIPITATION REACHING THE FORECAST AREA. OUR FORECAST FROM
YESTERDAY REFLECTED A MODEL BLEND CONSENSUS THAT WAS MORE IN LINE
WITH THE WETTER ECWMF SOLUTION. GIVEN BOTH THE GFS AND ECWMF ARE
WETTER FOR THE REGION...AND THE MODEL BLEND CONSENSUS IS ALSO WETTER
ACROSS THE REGION...HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT IN THE FORECAST.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO REFLECT 50
PERCENT IN THE EAST...WITH 20 TO 25 PERCENT IN THE WEST. SURFACE AND
LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MAINLY A SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW
FORECAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY...WITH PRIMARILY RAIN
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR ARRIVING ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR MORE LIGHT
SNOW...BUT WITH THE SYSTEM EXITING...MUCH LESS COVERAGE.

OUT NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT ZIPS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION
DURING THE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECWMF SOLUTIONS HAVE CHANGED COMPARED TO THEIR -24 HOUR
COUNTERPARTS. PRIOR...MODEL SOLUTIONS WERE HINTING AT A MORE
PROLONGED CLOSED LOW STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
WITH A MORE PROFOUND SHOT OF COLDER AIR IN ITS WAKE. THE LATEST
SOLUTIONS OFFER A MORE GLANCING BLOW OF ENERGY ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH THE COLDER AIR NOT HAVING AS MUCH CHANCE TO MAKE THE
TURN SOUTH PRIOR TO ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE
OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WHILE THE FORECAST WILL STILL OFFER SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL BE A BIT MILDER THAN WHAT AS OFFERED IN THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM EST SUNDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN HANDLING OF UPCOMING
SYSTEM. STILL ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE AIRMASS MOISTENS UP AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE MID MISS VALLEY BRING A WARM FRONT ACROSS BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON AT MOST SITES
WITH LIGHT RAIN FOLLOWING CLOSE BEHIND. EXPECT PERIODS OF MDT AND
HEAVY RAIN FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...
ALONG WITH TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS. CONTINUING TO MONITOR POTENTIAL
LOW LVL WIND SHEAR AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO AOA 60KTS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WILL NOT MENTION IN THIS PACKAGE BUT WILL INCLUDE WITH THE
12Z ISSUANCE IF NEEDED.

LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND
GUSTY SUNDAY. WINDS AT BLF MAY STAY UP A BIT TONIGHT AS
THE INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AND WARM FRONT START TO
BE FELT.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

RAIN AND WIND CONTINUE WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT.
A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR DURING MONDAY OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A
DRY SLOT DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE EXITING FRONT FROM SUNDAY AND THE
NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. MONDAY INTO TUESDAY LOOK TO FEATURE
QUITE A BIT OF WIND. NW FLOW INTO MAY KEEP SUB VFR CIGS INTO BLF
AND POSSIBLE LWB...WITH VFR TO THE EAST. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
WHICH MAY BRING WINTRY PRECIP TO THE AREA ALONG WITH SUB VFR AT
ALL SITES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 215 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WILL BE OUT
OF SERVICE UNTIL PARTS ARRIVE TO REPLACE THE SENSOR. UNTIL THEN
THE VISIBILITY WILL ONLY BE REPORTED WHEN THE CONTROL TOWER IS
STAFFED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/MBS
NEAR TERM...KK/MBS/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...MBS/KK/WP
EQUIPMENT...RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 230300
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1000 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THEN...A STORM SYSTEM MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND CENTRAL MID
ATLANTIC REGION...BRINGING WET AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
TUESDAY...RETURNING TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REST OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 930 PM EST SATURDAY...

VERY DRY AIRMASS...LACK OF CLOUDS AND LIGHTER WINDS HAVE ALLOWED
TEMPS TO FALL FASTER THIS EVENING THAN FORECAST...AND HAVE ALLOWED
FOR COLDER LOWS...WITH 20S IN THE EAST AND DEEPER VALLEYS IN THE
WEST. SHIELD OF THICKER HIGH CLOUDS STARTING TO EDGE NEWD FROM THE
GULF COAST STATES...BUT MODELS SHOW THEM DISSIPATING SOME AS THEY
HEAD INTO THIS DRIER AIRMASS. BACKED OFF THE TIMING ON POPS IN THE
NC MTNS TIL DAWN OR THEREAFTER SUNDAY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL FOR SLEET...BUT AS TEMPS WARM LATE WITH CLOUDS WILL SEE
MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. IN
ADVANCE OF A BROAD TROF WILL CURVES OUT IN THE CENTRAL U.S. SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...LEADING SHORTWAVE WILL TAKE ON A STRONG NEGATIVE TILT
AND ROTATE OUT OF THE ARKLATEX REGION TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD OVERRUNNING RAIN. SHAPED TIMING AND POPS
FOR RAIN TOWARDS A BLEND OF GFS...NAM AND HIRESW-ARW WITH MOISTURE
SPREADING QUICKLY UP THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE WITH THE ISENTROPIC
LIFT.

WINDS ARE ANOTHER CONCERN WITH A 70-80KT LLJ TRAVERSES THE AREA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE WARM FRONT/UPPER TROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH WINDS NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND
SMYTH/TAZEWELL/MERCER REGION WITH THE STRONG LLJ. SOME MODERATE
RAIN MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS WITH
UPSLOPE COMPONENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 50S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EST SATURDAY...

BROAD SOUTHWEST 500 MB FLOW ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WELL DEFINED
VORTICITY MAXIMUM TRACK FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY MORNING.

STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND IMPRESSIVE UPSLOPE WINDS SUNDAY
EVENING WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ON THE EAST
SLOPES AND FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE RIDGE. PLUS THE SOUTHEAST WIND WILL
BE ADVECTING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES UP THE
RIDGES. AXIS OF CONVERGENCE CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA BY 06Z/1AM
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SHARP DRY SLOT IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING.

IN-SITU WEDGE ERODES ONCE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS WITH STRONG WARM
AIR ADVECTION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. BEHIND THE RAIN ON
MONDAY 850 MB TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE +10 TO +12
RANGE. BUT BY THE END OF THE DAY THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED
EAST THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS BRING THE 850 MB FRONT THROUGH DURING
THE EVENING. EXPECTING A NON DIURNAL RISE IN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
NIGHT THEN ABOVE NORMAL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

THE BIG PUSH OF COLDER AIR COMES IN TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE COUNTY WARNING AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH LATE TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL RESULT IN EAST WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS WILL BRING DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA AS WELL AS A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. HOW FAR WEST THE PRECIPITATION WILL REACH
WAS STILL QUESTIONABLE. IF PRECIPITATION EXTENDS ALL THE WAY TO THE
BLUE RIDGE...TEMPERATURES MAY BE COLD ENOUGH ON THE WESTERN EDGE TO
HAVE SNOW OR A RAIN SNOW MIX. TOO SOON TO TELL IF THERE WILL BE ANY
PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY FALLING...MUCH LESS ANY AMOUNTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EST SATURDAY...

TWO DISTINCT SYSTEMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR BRING SOME PRECIPITATION
TO PARTS OF THE AREA DURING THIS SEGMENT OF THE FORECAST. THE FIRST
ITEM OF INTEREST IS A LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG A
BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT WILL BE POSITIONED ALONG THE COAST DURING THE
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE
STILL INCONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER...AND WITH THEIR OWN PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS REGARDING THE TIMING...TRACK AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS FEATURE. YESTERDAY...THE ECWMF WAS THE ONLY OPERATIONAL
MODEL RUN THAT HINTED AT PRECIPITATION SKIRTING THE EASTERN EXTENT
OF THE FORECAST AREA. TODAY...ITS SOLUTIONS IS MORE ROBUST ON THIS
SCENARIO WITH PRECIPITATION NOW THE WHOLE WAY WEST TO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. TODAY...THE GFS SOLUTION IS ONLY SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST AS
COMPARED TO THE ECWMF FROM YESTERDAY...BUT STILL...HAS ALL BUT OUR
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES WITH AT LEAST 0.01 PRECIP. THE
CANADIAN SOLUTION KEEPS THE SYSTEM FARTHER OFF THE COAST WITH NOT A
DROP OF PRECIPITATION REACHING THE FORECAST AREA. OUR FORECAST FROM
YESTERDAY REFLECTED A MODEL BLEND CONSENSUS THAT WAS MORE IN LINE
WITH THE WETTER ECWMF SOLUTION. GIVEN BOTH THE GFS AND ECWMF ARE
WETTER FOR THE REGION...AND THE MODEL BLEND CONSENSUS IS ALSO WETTER
ACROSS THE REGION...HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT IN THE FORECAST.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO REFLECT 50
PERCENT IN THE EAST...WITH 20 TO 25 PERCENT IN THE WEST. SURFACE AND
LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MAINLY A SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW
FORECAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY...WITH PRIMARILY RAIN
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR ARRIVING ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR MORE LIGHT
SNOW...BUT WITH THE SYSTEM EXITING...MUCH LESS COVERAGE.

OUT NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT ZIPS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION
DURING THE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECWMF SOLUTIONS HAVE CHANGED COMPARED TO THEIR -24 HOUR
COUNTERPARTS. PRIOR...MODEL SOLUTIONS WERE HINTING AT A MORE
PROLONGED CLOSED LOW STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
WITH A MORE PROFOUND SHOT OF COLDER AIR IN ITS WAKE. THE LATEST
SOLUTIONS OFFER A MORE GLANCING BLOW OF ENERGY ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH THE COLDER AIR NOT HAVING AS MUCH CHANCE TO MAKE THE
TURN SOUTH PRIOR TO ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE
OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WHILE THE FORECAST WILL STILL OFFER SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL BE A BIT MILDER THAN WHAT AS OFFERED IN THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 635 PM EST SATURDAY...

GOING TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE AIRMASS
MOISTENS UP AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE MID MISS
VALLEY BRING A WARM FRONT ACROSS BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO ARRIVE BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON AT MOST SITES
WITH LIGHT RAIN FOLLOWING CLOSE BEHIND. MODERATE AND AT TIMES
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THE ROA/BCB LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
NAM/LOCAL WRF MODEL ALSO SHOW POTENTIAL LOW LVL WIND SHEAR
CONCERNS TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON AS THE STRONG LOW LVL JET MOVES
INTO THE MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS. LEFT IT OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW GIVEN
RAIN AND POTENTIAL EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS.

LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND
MORE GUSTY ON SUNDAY. WINDS AT BLF MAY STAY UP A BIT TONIGHT AS
THE INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AND WARM FRONT START TO
BE FELT.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.


EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

RAIN AND WIND CONTINUE WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT.
A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR DURING MONDAY OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A
DRY SLOT DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE EXITING FRONT FROM SUNDAY AND THE
NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. MONDAY INTO TUESDAY LOOK TO FEATURE
QUITE A BIT OF WIND. NW FLOW INTO MAY KEEP SUB VFR CIGS INTO BLF
AND POSSIBLE LWB...WITH VFR TO THE EAST. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
WHICH MAY BRING WINTRY PRECIP TO THE AREA ALONG WITH SUB VFR AT
ALL SITES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 215 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WILL BE OUT
OF SERVICE UNTIL PARTS ARRIVE TO REPLACE THE SENSOR. UNTIL THEN
THE VISIBILITY WILL ONLY BE REPORTED WHEN THE CONTROL TOWER IS
STAFFED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/MBS
NEAR TERM...KK/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...KK/MBS/WP
EQUIPMENT...RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 230300
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1000 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THEN...A STORM SYSTEM MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND CENTRAL MID
ATLANTIC REGION...BRINGING WET AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
TUESDAY...RETURNING TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REST OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 930 PM EST SATURDAY...

VERY DRY AIRMASS...LACK OF CLOUDS AND LIGHTER WINDS HAVE ALLOWED
TEMPS TO FALL FASTER THIS EVENING THAN FORECAST...AND HAVE ALLOWED
FOR COLDER LOWS...WITH 20S IN THE EAST AND DEEPER VALLEYS IN THE
WEST. SHIELD OF THICKER HIGH CLOUDS STARTING TO EDGE NEWD FROM THE
GULF COAST STATES...BUT MODELS SHOW THEM DISSIPATING SOME AS THEY
HEAD INTO THIS DRIER AIRMASS. BACKED OFF THE TIMING ON POPS IN THE
NC MTNS TIL DAWN OR THEREAFTER SUNDAY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL FOR SLEET...BUT AS TEMPS WARM LATE WITH CLOUDS WILL SEE
MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. IN
ADVANCE OF A BROAD TROF WILL CURVES OUT IN THE CENTRAL U.S. SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...LEADING SHORTWAVE WILL TAKE ON A STRONG NEGATIVE TILT
AND ROTATE OUT OF THE ARKLATEX REGION TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD OVERRUNNING RAIN. SHAPED TIMING AND POPS
FOR RAIN TOWARDS A BLEND OF GFS...NAM AND HIRESW-ARW WITH MOISTURE
SPREADING QUICKLY UP THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE WITH THE ISENTROPIC
LIFT.

WINDS ARE ANOTHER CONCERN WITH A 70-80KT LLJ TRAVERSES THE AREA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE WARM FRONT/UPPER TROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH WINDS NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND
SMYTH/TAZEWELL/MERCER REGION WITH THE STRONG LLJ. SOME MODERATE
RAIN MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS WITH
UPSLOPE COMPONENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 50S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EST SATURDAY...

BROAD SOUTHWEST 500 MB FLOW ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WELL DEFINED
VORTICITY MAXIMUM TRACK FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY MORNING.

STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND IMPRESSIVE UPSLOPE WINDS SUNDAY
EVENING WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ON THE EAST
SLOPES AND FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE RIDGE. PLUS THE SOUTHEAST WIND WILL
BE ADVECTING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES UP THE
RIDGES. AXIS OF CONVERGENCE CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA BY 06Z/1AM
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SHARP DRY SLOT IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING.

IN-SITU WEDGE ERODES ONCE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS WITH STRONG WARM
AIR ADVECTION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. BEHIND THE RAIN ON
MONDAY 850 MB TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE +10 TO +12
RANGE. BUT BY THE END OF THE DAY THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED
EAST THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS BRING THE 850 MB FRONT THROUGH DURING
THE EVENING. EXPECTING A NON DIURNAL RISE IN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
NIGHT THEN ABOVE NORMAL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

THE BIG PUSH OF COLDER AIR COMES IN TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE COUNTY WARNING AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH LATE TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL RESULT IN EAST WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS WILL BRING DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA AS WELL AS A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. HOW FAR WEST THE PRECIPITATION WILL REACH
WAS STILL QUESTIONABLE. IF PRECIPITATION EXTENDS ALL THE WAY TO THE
BLUE RIDGE...TEMPERATURES MAY BE COLD ENOUGH ON THE WESTERN EDGE TO
HAVE SNOW OR A RAIN SNOW MIX. TOO SOON TO TELL IF THERE WILL BE ANY
PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY FALLING...MUCH LESS ANY AMOUNTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EST SATURDAY...

TWO DISTINCT SYSTEMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR BRING SOME PRECIPITATION
TO PARTS OF THE AREA DURING THIS SEGMENT OF THE FORECAST. THE FIRST
ITEM OF INTEREST IS A LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG A
BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT WILL BE POSITIONED ALONG THE COAST DURING THE
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE
STILL INCONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER...AND WITH THEIR OWN PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS REGARDING THE TIMING...TRACK AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS FEATURE. YESTERDAY...THE ECWMF WAS THE ONLY OPERATIONAL
MODEL RUN THAT HINTED AT PRECIPITATION SKIRTING THE EASTERN EXTENT
OF THE FORECAST AREA. TODAY...ITS SOLUTIONS IS MORE ROBUST ON THIS
SCENARIO WITH PRECIPITATION NOW THE WHOLE WAY WEST TO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. TODAY...THE GFS SOLUTION IS ONLY SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST AS
COMPARED TO THE ECWMF FROM YESTERDAY...BUT STILL...HAS ALL BUT OUR
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES WITH AT LEAST 0.01 PRECIP. THE
CANADIAN SOLUTION KEEPS THE SYSTEM FARTHER OFF THE COAST WITH NOT A
DROP OF PRECIPITATION REACHING THE FORECAST AREA. OUR FORECAST FROM
YESTERDAY REFLECTED A MODEL BLEND CONSENSUS THAT WAS MORE IN LINE
WITH THE WETTER ECWMF SOLUTION. GIVEN BOTH THE GFS AND ECWMF ARE
WETTER FOR THE REGION...AND THE MODEL BLEND CONSENSUS IS ALSO WETTER
ACROSS THE REGION...HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT IN THE FORECAST.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO REFLECT 50
PERCENT IN THE EAST...WITH 20 TO 25 PERCENT IN THE WEST. SURFACE AND
LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MAINLY A SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW
FORECAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY...WITH PRIMARILY RAIN
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR ARRIVING ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR MORE LIGHT
SNOW...BUT WITH THE SYSTEM EXITING...MUCH LESS COVERAGE.

OUT NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT ZIPS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION
DURING THE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECWMF SOLUTIONS HAVE CHANGED COMPARED TO THEIR -24 HOUR
COUNTERPARTS. PRIOR...MODEL SOLUTIONS WERE HINTING AT A MORE
PROLONGED CLOSED LOW STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
WITH A MORE PROFOUND SHOT OF COLDER AIR IN ITS WAKE. THE LATEST
SOLUTIONS OFFER A MORE GLANCING BLOW OF ENERGY ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH THE COLDER AIR NOT HAVING AS MUCH CHANCE TO MAKE THE
TURN SOUTH PRIOR TO ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE
OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WHILE THE FORECAST WILL STILL OFFER SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL BE A BIT MILDER THAN WHAT AS OFFERED IN THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 635 PM EST SATURDAY...

GOING TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE AIRMASS
MOISTENS UP AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE MID MISS
VALLEY BRING A WARM FRONT ACROSS BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO ARRIVE BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON AT MOST SITES
WITH LIGHT RAIN FOLLOWING CLOSE BEHIND. MODERATE AND AT TIMES
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THE ROA/BCB LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
NAM/LOCAL WRF MODEL ALSO SHOW POTENTIAL LOW LVL WIND SHEAR
CONCERNS TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON AS THE STRONG LOW LVL JET MOVES
INTO THE MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS. LEFT IT OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW GIVEN
RAIN AND POTENTIAL EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS.

LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND
MORE GUSTY ON SUNDAY. WINDS AT BLF MAY STAY UP A BIT TONIGHT AS
THE INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AND WARM FRONT START TO
BE FELT.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.


EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

RAIN AND WIND CONTINUE WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT.
A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR DURING MONDAY OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A
DRY SLOT DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE EXITING FRONT FROM SUNDAY AND THE
NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. MONDAY INTO TUESDAY LOOK TO FEATURE
QUITE A BIT OF WIND. NW FLOW INTO MAY KEEP SUB VFR CIGS INTO BLF
AND POSSIBLE LWB...WITH VFR TO THE EAST. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
WHICH MAY BRING WINTRY PRECIP TO THE AREA ALONG WITH SUB VFR AT
ALL SITES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 215 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WILL BE OUT
OF SERVICE UNTIL PARTS ARRIVE TO REPLACE THE SENSOR. UNTIL THEN
THE VISIBILITY WILL ONLY BE REPORTED WHEN THE CONTROL TOWER IS
STAFFED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/MBS
NEAR TERM...KK/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...KK/MBS/WP
EQUIPMENT...RAB



000
FXUS61 KLWX 230224
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
924 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF CAPE HATTERAS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BRING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRES IS OFF CAPE HATTERAS...BUT ENOUGH GRADIENT EXISTS TO
MAINTAIN 10 MPH SLY FLOW. THEREFORE...DESPITE DEWPOINTS IN THE
TEENS...TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT DROPPED MUCH YET THIS EVENING. WITH
CLEAR SKIES THOUGH...ANY AREAS THAT SEE DECOUPLING WILL DROP
QUICKLY. FOR INSTANCE...IT IS ALREADY MID 30S AT KMRB WHERE IT WAS
CALM AT 02Z. MIN TEMPS GENERALLY LOW 30S...THOUGH PATCHY UPR 20S
WILL OCCUR. INVERSION WITH HIGHER TEMPS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND
NEARSHORE AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
SUNDAY WL BE THE LAST PD W/O MUCH WX TO TALK ABT. HIGH PRES CONTS
TO DRIFT AWAY. RGN WL BE UNDER SRLY FLOW. HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGS
WARMER THAN TDA - M50S MOST OF THE AREA.

POPS INCREASE FROM FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WARM AIR
ADVECTION TYPICALLY STARTS RAINING SOONER THAN MODELS DEPICT.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND AN ATTENDANT
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL BE PIVOTING NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY...WHILE A WARM FRONT PUSHES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. A STRONG
LLJ WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...WITH A SOLID SHIELD OF
MODERATE RAIN EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA AFTER 00Z. RAISED POPS
TO 100 ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT THE FAR WESTERN RIDGES...AS
THIS LOOKS LIKE A WELL FORCED SYNOPTIC EVENT WITH SIMILAR TIMING IN
THE MODEL GUIDANCE. THE ONLY QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY IS THE COOL
NEAR-SURFACE AIR SCOURED OUT WITH A NIGHTTIME WARM FRONT AND
POSSIBLE IN-SITU CAD. REGARDLESS OF THE TIMING...TEMPERATURES AND
DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB STEADILY THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS. 50 KT OF 0-1 KM SHEAR ALONG THE WARM FRONT...BUT
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR ZERO...ALTHOUGH THE NAM AND A FEW
SREF MEMBERS BRING A LITTLE ELEVATED CAPE EAST OF I-95. LEFT MENTION
OF THUNDER OUT...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR EMBEDDED RUMBLES. LOW LEVEL WINDS ALSO FAVOR A SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE
FLOW...SO THE HIGHEST QPF IS DEPICTED ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. PWATS WILL APPROACH 1.5 INCHES...SO EXPECT SOME SPOTS
COULD EASILY NEAR AN INCH OF RAIN. RIDGE TOPS COULD BE RATHER BREEZY
DUE TO THE LLJ. MAIN SHIELD OF PRECIP WILL PULL NORTHEAST AFTER 09Z
AS MID LEVEL DRYING BEGINS TO WORK IN.

CWA WILL BE WARM SECTORED ON MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND SOME LOWER 70S TO
THE EAST...GETTING CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS (SEE CLIMATE SECTION). IT
WILL ALSO BE BREEZY WITH SOME GUSTS TOPPING 25 MPH. BIGGEST QUESTION
OF THE DAY IS PRECIP POTENTIAL. THE 12Z NAM IS STILL AN OUTLIER WITH
MORE MOISTURE AND A NARROW CAPE PROFILE...WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING.
THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW MID LEVEL DRYING AND SOME
CAPPING...AND THUS DRY. WILL LEAN THIS WAY...KEEPING VERY LOW POPS.
HOWEVER THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL BECAUSE IF
SHOWERS/STORMS DO DEVELOP...THEY WILL HAVE STRONG SHEAR TO TAP INTO.

BY MONDAY EVENING...THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO QUEBEC...WITH THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED...WITH THE NAM AND SREF THE MOST ROBUST WITH SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SMALL POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE 40S...WITH 30S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE THE COLDER
AIR WILL ARRIVE EARLIER.

GUIDANCE STILL DIFFERS SUBSTANTIALLY ON THE AMPLITUDE OF A RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING ONSHORE
OF WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND THE INTERACTION OF TWO SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. 00Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS MORE
PRONOUNCED WITH THE RIDGE OUT WEST BECAUSE IT IS WEAKER WITH THE
INCOMING PACIFIC SHORTWAVE...AND AS A RESULT ALLOWS MORE
AMPLIFICATION/PHASING OF TWO SHORTWAVES OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES LEADING TO STRONGER CYCLOGENESIS MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST.
THE LATEST OPERATIONAL 12Z GFS HAS TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION AS
WELL...SO HAVE STARTED WITH WPC AS A BASELINE THEN TWEAKED POPS
UPWARD A FEW PERCENT AND NUDGED TEMPERATURES DOWN ABOUT A DEGREE OR
TWO /MORE AMPLIFIED NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND STREAM INTERACTION
BRINGS IN COLDER AIR/.

OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS EACH MODEL CYCLE HAS A FEW MORE ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS BRINGING LOW PRESSURE CLOSER TO THE COAST...BUT THE OVERALL
PATTERN IS NOT A CLASSIC SETUP FOR HEAVY WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN THE
METRO AREAS DUE IN LARGE PART TO THE RIDGE OUT WEST BEING
UNDERCUT/WEAKENED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS WOULD ACT TO KEEP THE
PATTERN LESS AMPLIFIED AND THE EAST COAST SYSTEM MORE
PROGRESSIVE/TRANSIENT...WITH LESS COLD AIR REACHING THE CWA IN
CONCERT WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST.

BOTTOM LINE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE INCREASED DURING THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD WHICH COINCIDES WITH THE BUSIEST TRAVEL TIME OF THE
YEAR SO IT DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING. WINTRY PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE
RULED OUT BUT AT THE MOMENT THIS SETUP DOES NOT APPEAR TO FAVOR A
CLASSIC MID-ATLANTIC SNOWSTORM.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...MORE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOLLOWS LATER IN THE
WEEK...GRADUALLY MODERATING INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD THEN OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDS TNGT AND INTO SUN AFTERNOON.

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN (MVFR
POSSIBLE SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON NEAR KCHO). A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN
IS POSSIBLE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...DIMINISHING AND TURNING
WESTERLY MONDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT.

W FLOW AOB 10 KT TUE W/ VFR...BECOMING N OR NE TUE
NIGHT-WED...UNCERTAIN IN EXACT MAGNITUDE/DIRECTION DUE TO MODEL
DISAGREEMENT IN PLACEMENT OF LOW PRES ALONG COAST. LOW PRES ALSO MAY
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LWR CIGS/VSBY LATE TUE NIGHT-WED EVE. WINDS
BECOME W AGAIN AROUND 10 KT THU W/ RETURN TO VFR LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY/SWLY FLOW AROUND 15 KT INTO THE OVERNIGHT. STRAY 18 KT GUST
POSSIBLE...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR AN SCA.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...LIKELY CONTINUING INTO MONDAY
NIGHT AS WINDS INCREASE BEHIND A WARM FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL
TURN WINDS TO THE WEST MONDAY EVENING...WITH GUSTS GRADUALLY
WEAKENING.

UNLESS LOW PRES WINDS UP MUCH MORE THAN CURRENTLY PROJECTED BY EVEN
THE STRONGER MODEL SOLUTIONS TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE
WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
IAD TIED A RECORD LOW OF 14 DEGREES THIS MORNING...PREVIOUSLY SET
BACK IN 1964.

8TH CONSECUTIVE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW 50 AT IAD AND BWI WAS
RECORDED TODAY...SECOND MOST ON RECORD AT IAD IN THE MONTH OF
NOVEMBER...AND THE LONGEST NOVEMBER STRETCH AT BWI SINCE 1944.

STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL USHER IN
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES...AND HIGHS MONDAY COULD APPROACH
RECORD MAXIMUM VALUES. BELOW IS A LIST OF RECORD DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR 11/24.

SITE   RECORD (YEAR)
DCA    74 (1958)
BWI    73 (1979)
IAD    74 (1979)

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT TO 6 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR ANZ530>532-535-538>540.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ533-534-536-537-541>543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...JACKSON
PREVIOUS...WOODY!/ADS/DFH






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230209
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
909 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND
MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LATEST GOES WV IMAGERY INDICATES A POTENT TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS
TX...WITH A BROAD RIDGE DOWNSTREAM COVERING THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A ~1030MB HIGH IS CENTERED JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE NC OUTER BANKS. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME
MID LVL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS OUT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE TEXARKANA REGION OVERNIGHT
TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN OFF
QUICKLY INTO THE 30S AS EXPECTED EARLY THIS EVENING WITH LGT
WINDS/CLR SKY AND WITH DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BEGIN TO STABILIZE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BECOMING STEADY OR
EVEN SLOWLY RISE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS CLOUDS
GRADUALLY INCREASE AND LOWER TOWARDS MORNING. NUDGED INHERITED
MINIMA DOWN SLIGHTLY GIVEN LATEST OBS...BUT STILL ANTICIPATING
U20S TO L30S INLAND...MID TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE...THICKEN...AND LOWER FROM THE SW SUN
AS GULF COAST MOISTURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFT NE THROUGH
THE SE CONUS...AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT SOME RAIN
SHOULD ARRIVE IN SW PORTIONS LATE IN THE DAY...WITH 60% POPS SW
LATE IN THE DAY...BORDERED BY A 30-50% POP FROM THE NW PIEDMONT
THROUGH NE NC. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW TO LOW 60S
SE.

THE WARM FRONT WITH STRONG VERTICAL MOTION WILL CROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION PRIMARILY FROM SUN EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE (+3 ST DEV PW 03-06Z MON PER
22/15Z SREF) WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT DUE TO A STRONG NEARLY 70KT
LLJ. POPS FOR RAIN DURING THE 12HR PERIOD SUN NIGHT HAVE BEEN
RAISED TO 100%. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
COASTAL NE NC. HOWEVER...0-3KM LAPSE RATES SEEM TO BE A LIMITING
FACTOR THROUGHOUT THE 22/12Z SUITE OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...OFFSETTING
A STRONG AMBIENT WIND FIELD. GIVEN THIS...THE SPC SLIGHT RISK HAS
BEEN SHUNTED S OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND 6HR PRESSURE FALLS OF -7MB TO -10MB PER 22/12Z GFS
WILL RESULT IN BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF
THE COAST. GUSTS FROM THE SSE DIRECTION OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. LOWS SUN NIGHT SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 50S...WITH
READINGS LIKELY TO RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG FORCING AND
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN A ~6HR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN SUN NIGHT...WITH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS
AVERAGING 1.00-1.25IN.

THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NNE OF THE REGION BY 12Z MON...WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING TOWARD THE FAR WRN COUNTIES BY 00Z TUE. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE MON MORNING...WITH A GUSTY SW WIND
DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S (SEE THE
THE CLIMO SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS). 22/12Z NAM LINGERS MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO 20-30% DUE TO THE APPROACH
OF THE COLD FRONT AND SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT AND TUE. PARTIAL
CLEARING IS POSSIBLE INLAND...WITH CLOUDS LINGERING NEAR THE COAST
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER TUE. HIGHS TUE SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO LOW 60S SE...AFTER MORNING LOWS FROM THE
MID 40S NW...TO LOW/MID 50S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. MODELS NOW SHOWING SRN STREAM LO PRES OVR THE ERN GULF TUE
EVENG...WILL TRACK NNE AND JUST OFF THE EAST CST TUE NGT INTO WED
NGT. THUS...HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR RAIN TO 40%-60% (HIGHEST IN THE
ERN HALF OF THE REGION) DURING WED. PCPN/MOIST THEN MOVES E OF THE
AREA AND OFF THE CST LATER WED EVENG/WED NGT...WITH POPS DIMINISHING
FM W TO E. A MAINLY DRY FRONT SWINGS ACRS THE AREA THU AFTN INTO
EARLY FRI MORNG. HI PRES WILL THEN BLD INTO AND OVR THE REGION FRI
THRU SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S WED...IN THE UPR 40S TO LWR
50S THU...IN THE MID TO UPR 40S FRI...AND RANGE THRU THE 40S SAT.
MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S WED MORNG...IN THE UPR
20S TO MID 30S THU AND FRI MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S
SAT MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONT ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL PERSIST INTO SUN
MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVD OFFSHORE OF VA/NC AND WNDS
AROUND THE HIGH ARE SE-SW OVER THE REGION AND GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 KTS. MEANWHILE...LOTS OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE SE AND GULF STATES
WILL PUSH NORTH INTO THE MID ATL REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
SUN.

A MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL HELP FORM A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE SE US AS THE MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVES NE OUT OF THE GOMEX
ON SUN. THIS WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE MOISTURE AS A WARM FRONT
SURGES THROUGH THE AREA SUN NIGHT. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS(POSSIBLY
LOWER) DUE TO LOWERED CEILINGS AND REDUCED VIS DUE TO RAIN.
ALSO...WIND GUST TO 35KT MAY BE POSSIBLE MON MORNING AS THE SYSTEM
DEEPENS OVER THE AREA. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE OVER NE NC/SE VA.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE HOISTED SCA`S FOR THE ENTIRE WTRS STARTING SUN EVENG...AND
LASTING THRU MON AFTN/EVENG OR MON NGT FOR THE CHES BAY/CURRITUCK
SND AND THE CSTL WTRS. HI PRES SLIDES OUT TO SEA DURING SUN...WITH
LO PRES MOVNG FM THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY NNE THRU THE GRT LKS AND
INTO ERN CANADA SUN EVENG INTO MON NGT. SE OR S WINDS WILL
INCREASE ACRS THE WTRS/REGION LATE SUN INTO MON MORNG IN ADVANCE
OF A COLD FRONT. SE OR S WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO/ARND
30 KNOTS EXPECTED SUN EVENG INTO MON EVENG...WITH WAVES BLDNG TO 3
TO 5 FT IN THE CHES BAY...AND SEAS BLDNG TO 5 TO 8 FEET ON THE
CSTL WTRS. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WTRS MON NGT...WITH CALMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE INTO TUE NGT. STRONG NE OR N WINDS THEN
EXPECTED WED INTO WED NGT...AS LO PRES TRACKS NWRD JUST OFF THE
EAST CST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED MONDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

RIC 76 1979
ORF 78 1983
SBY 78 1931
ECG 77 1983

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ633-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...DAP/JEF
MARINE...TMG
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230209
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
909 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND
MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LATEST GOES WV IMAGERY INDICATES A POTENT TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS
TX...WITH A BROAD RIDGE DOWNSTREAM COVERING THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A ~1030MB HIGH IS CENTERED JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE NC OUTER BANKS. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME
MID LVL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS OUT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE TEXARKANA REGION OVERNIGHT
TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN OFF
QUICKLY INTO THE 30S AS EXPECTED EARLY THIS EVENING WITH LGT
WINDS/CLR SKY AND WITH DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BEGIN TO STABILIZE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BECOMING STEADY OR
EVEN SLOWLY RISE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS CLOUDS
GRADUALLY INCREASE AND LOWER TOWARDS MORNING. NUDGED INHERITED
MINIMA DOWN SLIGHTLY GIVEN LATEST OBS...BUT STILL ANTICIPATING
U20S TO L30S INLAND...MID TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE...THICKEN...AND LOWER FROM THE SW SUN
AS GULF COAST MOISTURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFT NE THROUGH
THE SE CONUS...AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT SOME RAIN
SHOULD ARRIVE IN SW PORTIONS LATE IN THE DAY...WITH 60% POPS SW
LATE IN THE DAY...BORDERED BY A 30-50% POP FROM THE NW PIEDMONT
THROUGH NE NC. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW TO LOW 60S
SE.

THE WARM FRONT WITH STRONG VERTICAL MOTION WILL CROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION PRIMARILY FROM SUN EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE (+3 ST DEV PW 03-06Z MON PER
22/15Z SREF) WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT DUE TO A STRONG NEARLY 70KT
LLJ. POPS FOR RAIN DURING THE 12HR PERIOD SUN NIGHT HAVE BEEN
RAISED TO 100%. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
COASTAL NE NC. HOWEVER...0-3KM LAPSE RATES SEEM TO BE A LIMITING
FACTOR THROUGHOUT THE 22/12Z SUITE OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...OFFSETTING
A STRONG AMBIENT WIND FIELD. GIVEN THIS...THE SPC SLIGHT RISK HAS
BEEN SHUNTED S OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND 6HR PRESSURE FALLS OF -7MB TO -10MB PER 22/12Z GFS
WILL RESULT IN BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF
THE COAST. GUSTS FROM THE SSE DIRECTION OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. LOWS SUN NIGHT SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 50S...WITH
READINGS LIKELY TO RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG FORCING AND
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN A ~6HR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN SUN NIGHT...WITH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS
AVERAGING 1.00-1.25IN.

THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NNE OF THE REGION BY 12Z MON...WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING TOWARD THE FAR WRN COUNTIES BY 00Z TUE. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE MON MORNING...WITH A GUSTY SW WIND
DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S (SEE THE
THE CLIMO SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS). 22/12Z NAM LINGERS MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO 20-30% DUE TO THE APPROACH
OF THE COLD FRONT AND SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT AND TUE. PARTIAL
CLEARING IS POSSIBLE INLAND...WITH CLOUDS LINGERING NEAR THE COAST
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER TUE. HIGHS TUE SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO LOW 60S SE...AFTER MORNING LOWS FROM THE
MID 40S NW...TO LOW/MID 50S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. MODELS NOW SHOWING SRN STREAM LO PRES OVR THE ERN GULF TUE
EVENG...WILL TRACK NNE AND JUST OFF THE EAST CST TUE NGT INTO WED
NGT. THUS...HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR RAIN TO 40%-60% (HIGHEST IN THE
ERN HALF OF THE REGION) DURING WED. PCPN/MOIST THEN MOVES E OF THE
AREA AND OFF THE CST LATER WED EVENG/WED NGT...WITH POPS DIMINISHING
FM W TO E. A MAINLY DRY FRONT SWINGS ACRS THE AREA THU AFTN INTO
EARLY FRI MORNG. HI PRES WILL THEN BLD INTO AND OVR THE REGION FRI
THRU SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S WED...IN THE UPR 40S TO LWR
50S THU...IN THE MID TO UPR 40S FRI...AND RANGE THRU THE 40S SAT.
MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S WED MORNG...IN THE UPR
20S TO MID 30S THU AND FRI MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S
SAT MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONT ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL PERSIST INTO SUN
MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVD OFFSHORE OF VA/NC AND WNDS
AROUND THE HIGH ARE SE-SW OVER THE REGION AND GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 KTS. MEANWHILE...LOTS OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE SE AND GULF STATES
WILL PUSH NORTH INTO THE MID ATL REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
SUN.

A MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL HELP FORM A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE SE US AS THE MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVES NE OUT OF THE GOMEX
ON SUN. THIS WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE MOISTURE AS A WARM FRONT
SURGES THROUGH THE AREA SUN NIGHT. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS(POSSIBLY
LOWER) DUE TO LOWERED CEILINGS AND REDUCED VIS DUE TO RAIN.
ALSO...WIND GUST TO 35KT MAY BE POSSIBLE MON MORNING AS THE SYSTEM
DEEPENS OVER THE AREA. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE OVER NE NC/SE VA.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE HOISTED SCA`S FOR THE ENTIRE WTRS STARTING SUN EVENG...AND
LASTING THRU MON AFTN/EVENG OR MON NGT FOR THE CHES BAY/CURRITUCK
SND AND THE CSTL WTRS. HI PRES SLIDES OUT TO SEA DURING SUN...WITH
LO PRES MOVNG FM THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY NNE THRU THE GRT LKS AND
INTO ERN CANADA SUN EVENG INTO MON NGT. SE OR S WINDS WILL
INCREASE ACRS THE WTRS/REGION LATE SUN INTO MON MORNG IN ADVANCE
OF A COLD FRONT. SE OR S WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO/ARND
30 KNOTS EXPECTED SUN EVENG INTO MON EVENG...WITH WAVES BLDNG TO 3
TO 5 FT IN THE CHES BAY...AND SEAS BLDNG TO 5 TO 8 FEET ON THE
CSTL WTRS. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WTRS MON NGT...WITH CALMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE INTO TUE NGT. STRONG NE OR N WINDS THEN
EXPECTED WED INTO WED NGT...AS LO PRES TRACKS NWRD JUST OFF THE
EAST CST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED MONDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

RIC 76 1979
ORF 78 1983
SBY 78 1931
ECG 77 1983

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ633-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...DAP/JEF
MARINE...TMG
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230155
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
855 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND
MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY INDICATES A POTENT TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS
TX...WITH A BROAD RIDGE DOWNSTREAM COVERING THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A ~1032MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR
THE NC OUTER BANKS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS GENERALLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS WITH ONLY A FEW THIN BANDS OF CIRRUS STREAMING OVERHEAD.
AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HAVE
MODERATED INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S WITH A LIGHT SSW WIND ON THE
NW PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SLIDE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.
MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE
GULF COAST. AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE DOMINATED
BY THE CURRENT COOL/DRY AIRMASS. HENCE TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP
QUICKLY INTO THE 30S THIS EVENING UNDER A CLEAR SKY...EVENTUALLY
REACHING OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S. HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD
THICKEN LATE...AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. HENCE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BECOME STEADY OR EVEN
SLOWLY RISE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE...THICKEN...AND LOWER FROM THE SW SUN
AS GULF COAST MOISTURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFT NE THROUGH
THE SE CONUS...AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT SOME RAIN
SHOULD ARRIVE IN SW PORTIONS LATE IN THE DAY...WITH 60% POPS SW
LATE IN THE DAY...BORDERED BY A 30-50% POP FROM THE NW PIEDMONT
THROUGH NE NC. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW TO LOW 60S
SE.

THE WARM FRONT WITH STRONG VERTICAL MOTION WILL CROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION PRIMARILY FROM SUN EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE (+3 ST DEV PW 03-06Z MON PER
22/15Z SREF) WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT DUE TO A STRONG NEARLY 70KT
LLJ. POPS FOR RAIN DURING THE 12HR PERIOD SUN NIGHT HAVE BEEN
RAISED TO 100%. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
COASTAL NE NC. HOWEVER...0-3KM LAPSE RATES SEEM TO BE A LIMITING
FACTOR THROUGHOUT THE 22/12Z SUITE OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...OFFSETTING
A STRONG AMBIENT WIND FIELD. GIVEN THIS...THE SPC SLIGHT RISK HAS
BEEN SHUNTED S OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND 6HR PRESSURE FALLS OF -7MB TO -10MB PER 22/12Z GFS
WILL RESULT IN BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF
THE COAST. GUSTS FROM THE SSE DIRECTION OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. LOWS SUN NIGHT SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 50S...WITH
READINGS LIKELY TO RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG FORCING AND
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN A ~6HR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN SUN NIGHT...WITH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS
AVERAGING 1.00-1.25IN.

THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NNE OF THE REGION BY 12Z MON...WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING TOWARD THE FAR WRN COUNTIES BY 00Z TUE. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE MON MORNING...WITH A GUSTY SW WIND
DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S (SEE THE
THE CLIMO SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS). 22/12Z NAM LINGERS MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO 20-30% DUE TO THE APPROACH
OF THE COLD FRONT AND SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT AND TUE. PARTIAL
CLEARING IS POSSIBLE INLAND...WITH CLOUDS LINGERING NEAR THE COAST
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER TUE. HIGHS TUE SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO LOW 60S SE...AFTER MORNING LOWS FROM THE
MID 40S NW...TO LOW/MID 50S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. MODELS NOW SHOWING SRN STREAM LO PRES OVR THE ERN GULF TUE
EVENG...WILL TRACK NNE AND JUST OFF THE EAST CST TUE NGT INTO WED
NGT. THUS...HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR RAIN TO 40%-60% (HIGHEST IN THE
ERN HALF OF THE REGION) DURING WED. PCPN/MOIST THEN MOVES E OF THE
AREA AND OFF THE CST LATER WED EVENG/WED NGT...WITH POPS DIMINISHING
FM W TO E. A MAINLY DRY FRONT SWINGS ACRS THE AREA THU AFTN INTO
EARLY FRI MORNG. HI PRES WILL THEN BLD INTO AND OVR THE REGION FRI
THRU SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S WED...IN THE UPR 40S TO LWR
50S THU...IN THE MID TO UPR 40S FRI...AND RANGE THRU THE 40S SAT.
MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S WED MORNG...IN THE UPR
20S TO MID 30S THU AND FRI MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S
SAT MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONT ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL PERSIST INTO SUN
MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVD OFFSHORE OF VA/NC AND WNDS
AROUND THE HIGH ARE SE-SW OVER THE REGION AND GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 KTS. MEANWHILE...LOTS OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE SE AND GULF STATES
WILL PUSH NORTH INTO THE MID ATL REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
SUN.

A MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL HELP FORM A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE SE US AS THE MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVES NE OUT OF THE GOMEX
ON SUN. THIS WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE MOISTURE AS A WARM FRONT
SURGES THROUGH THE AREA SUN NIGHT. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS(POSSIBLY
LOWER) DUE TO LOWERED CEILINGS AND REDUCED VIS DUE TO RAIN.
ALSO...WIND GUST TO 35KT MAY BE POSSIBLE MON MORNING AS THE SYSTEM
DEEPENS OVER THE AREA. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE OVER NE NC/SE VA.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE HOISTED SCA`S FOR THE ENTIRE WTRS STARTING SUN EVENG...AND
LASTING THRU MON AFTN/EVENG OR MON NGT FOR THE CHES BAY/CURRITUCK
SND AND THE CSTL WTRS. HI PRES SLIDES OUT TO SEA DURING SUN...WITH
LO PRES MOVNG FM THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY NNE THRU THE GRT LKS AND
INTO ERN CANADA SUN EVENG INTO MON NGT. SE OR S WINDS WILL
INCREASE ACRS THE WTRS/REGION LATE SUN INTO MON MORNG IN ADVANCE
OF A COLD FRONT. SE OR S WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO/ARND
30 KNOTS EXPECTED SUN EVENG INTO MON EVENG...WITH WAVES BLDNG TO 3
TO 5 FT IN THE CHES BAY...AND SEAS BLDNG TO 5 TO 8 FEET ON THE
CSTL WTRS. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WTRS MON NGT...WITH CALMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE INTO TUE NGT. STRONG NE OR N WINDS THEN
EXPECTED WED INTO WED NGT...AS LO PRES TRACKS NWRD JUST OFF THE
EAST CST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED MONDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

RIC 76 1979
ORF 78 1983
SBY 78 1931
ECG 77 1983

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ633-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...DAP/JEF
MARINE...TMG
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230155
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
855 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND
MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY INDICATES A POTENT TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS
TX...WITH A BROAD RIDGE DOWNSTREAM COVERING THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A ~1032MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR
THE NC OUTER BANKS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS GENERALLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS WITH ONLY A FEW THIN BANDS OF CIRRUS STREAMING OVERHEAD.
AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HAVE
MODERATED INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S WITH A LIGHT SSW WIND ON THE
NW PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SLIDE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.
MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE
GULF COAST. AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE DOMINATED
BY THE CURRENT COOL/DRY AIRMASS. HENCE TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP
QUICKLY INTO THE 30S THIS EVENING UNDER A CLEAR SKY...EVENTUALLY
REACHING OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S. HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD
THICKEN LATE...AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. HENCE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BECOME STEADY OR EVEN
SLOWLY RISE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE...THICKEN...AND LOWER FROM THE SW SUN
AS GULF COAST MOISTURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFT NE THROUGH
THE SE CONUS...AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT SOME RAIN
SHOULD ARRIVE IN SW PORTIONS LATE IN THE DAY...WITH 60% POPS SW
LATE IN THE DAY...BORDERED BY A 30-50% POP FROM THE NW PIEDMONT
THROUGH NE NC. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW TO LOW 60S
SE.

THE WARM FRONT WITH STRONG VERTICAL MOTION WILL CROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION PRIMARILY FROM SUN EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE (+3 ST DEV PW 03-06Z MON PER
22/15Z SREF) WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT DUE TO A STRONG NEARLY 70KT
LLJ. POPS FOR RAIN DURING THE 12HR PERIOD SUN NIGHT HAVE BEEN
RAISED TO 100%. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
COASTAL NE NC. HOWEVER...0-3KM LAPSE RATES SEEM TO BE A LIMITING
FACTOR THROUGHOUT THE 22/12Z SUITE OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...OFFSETTING
A STRONG AMBIENT WIND FIELD. GIVEN THIS...THE SPC SLIGHT RISK HAS
BEEN SHUNTED S OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND 6HR PRESSURE FALLS OF -7MB TO -10MB PER 22/12Z GFS
WILL RESULT IN BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF
THE COAST. GUSTS FROM THE SSE DIRECTION OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. LOWS SUN NIGHT SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 50S...WITH
READINGS LIKELY TO RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG FORCING AND
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN A ~6HR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN SUN NIGHT...WITH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS
AVERAGING 1.00-1.25IN.

THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NNE OF THE REGION BY 12Z MON...WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING TOWARD THE FAR WRN COUNTIES BY 00Z TUE. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE MON MORNING...WITH A GUSTY SW WIND
DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S (SEE THE
THE CLIMO SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS). 22/12Z NAM LINGERS MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO 20-30% DUE TO THE APPROACH
OF THE COLD FRONT AND SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT AND TUE. PARTIAL
CLEARING IS POSSIBLE INLAND...WITH CLOUDS LINGERING NEAR THE COAST
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER TUE. HIGHS TUE SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO LOW 60S SE...AFTER MORNING LOWS FROM THE
MID 40S NW...TO LOW/MID 50S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. MODELS NOW SHOWING SRN STREAM LO PRES OVR THE ERN GULF TUE
EVENG...WILL TRACK NNE AND JUST OFF THE EAST CST TUE NGT INTO WED
NGT. THUS...HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR RAIN TO 40%-60% (HIGHEST IN THE
ERN HALF OF THE REGION) DURING WED. PCPN/MOIST THEN MOVES E OF THE
AREA AND OFF THE CST LATER WED EVENG/WED NGT...WITH POPS DIMINISHING
FM W TO E. A MAINLY DRY FRONT SWINGS ACRS THE AREA THU AFTN INTO
EARLY FRI MORNG. HI PRES WILL THEN BLD INTO AND OVR THE REGION FRI
THRU SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S WED...IN THE UPR 40S TO LWR
50S THU...IN THE MID TO UPR 40S FRI...AND RANGE THRU THE 40S SAT.
MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S WED MORNG...IN THE UPR
20S TO MID 30S THU AND FRI MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S
SAT MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONT ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL PERSIST INTO SUN
MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVD OFFSHORE OF VA/NC AND WNDS
AROUND THE HIGH ARE SE-SW OVER THE REGION AND GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 KTS. MEANWHILE...LOTS OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE SE AND GULF STATES
WILL PUSH NORTH INTO THE MID ATL REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
SUN.

A MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL HELP FORM A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE SE US AS THE MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVES NE OUT OF THE GOMEX
ON SUN. THIS WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE MOISTURE AS A WARM FRONT
SURGES THROUGH THE AREA SUN NIGHT. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS(POSSIBLY
LOWER) DUE TO LOWERED CEILINGS AND REDUCED VIS DUE TO RAIN.
ALSO...WIND GUST TO 35KT MAY BE POSSIBLE MON MORNING AS THE SYSTEM
DEEPENS OVER THE AREA. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE OVER NE NC/SE VA.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE HOISTED SCA`S FOR THE ENTIRE WTRS STARTING SUN EVENG...AND
LASTING THRU MON AFTN/EVENG OR MON NGT FOR THE CHES BAY/CURRITUCK
SND AND THE CSTL WTRS. HI PRES SLIDES OUT TO SEA DURING SUN...WITH
LO PRES MOVNG FM THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY NNE THRU THE GRT LKS AND
INTO ERN CANADA SUN EVENG INTO MON NGT. SE OR S WINDS WILL
INCREASE ACRS THE WTRS/REGION LATE SUN INTO MON MORNG IN ADVANCE
OF A COLD FRONT. SE OR S WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO/ARND
30 KNOTS EXPECTED SUN EVENG INTO MON EVENG...WITH WAVES BLDNG TO 3
TO 5 FT IN THE CHES BAY...AND SEAS BLDNG TO 5 TO 8 FEET ON THE
CSTL WTRS. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WTRS MON NGT...WITH CALMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE INTO TUE NGT. STRONG NE OR N WINDS THEN
EXPECTED WED INTO WED NGT...AS LO PRES TRACKS NWRD JUST OFF THE
EAST CST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED MONDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

RIC 76 1979
ORF 78 1983
SBY 78 1931
ECG 77 1983

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ633-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...DAP/JEF
MARINE...TMG
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KRNK 222349
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
649 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THEN...A STORM SYSTEM MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND CENTRAL MID
ATLANTIC REGION...BRINGING WET AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
TUESDAY...RETURNING TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REST OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM EST SATURDAY...

SKIES MAINLY CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH LOW DEWPOINTS. TEMPS HAVE
FALLEN FASTER ONCE THE SUN WENT DOWN...SO ADJUSTED TEMPS TO COOL
THEM DOWN INTO LATE EVENING. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD THICKEN UP
PRIOR TO DAWN ALLOWING TEMPS TO STEADY OUT OR WARM. THE TEMPS
MAINLY ADJUSTED DOWN WERE EAST OF THE ALLEGHANYS AND VA/WV
BORDER...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES KEEPING PLACES LIKE BLUEFIELD
AND RICHLANDS CLOSE TO 45 TO 50. OTHER TWEAKS MADE TO LOWER SKY
COVER SOME THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE TONIGHT AS DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF APPROACHING WARM FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT WILL INCREASE IN THE WEST
SUNDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
20S IN THE COLDER NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 30S IN THE
SOUTHEAST...BUT WARMER IN THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE OF SW VA INTO THE
MTNS OF SRN WV WHERE AROUND 40 WILL BE THE MIN.

A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. IN
ADVANCE OF A BROAD TROF WILL CURVES OUT IN THE CENTRAL U.S. SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...LEADING SHORTWAVE WILL TAKE ON A STRONG NEGATIVE TILT
AND ROTATE OUT OF THE ARKLATEX REGION TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD OVERRUNNING RAIN. SHAPED TIMING AND POPS
FOR RAIN TOWARDS A BLEND OF GFS...NAM AND HIRESW-ARW WITH MOISTURE
SPREADING QUICKLY UP THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE WITH THE ISENTROPIC
LIFT.

WINDS ARE ANOTHER CONCERN WITH A 70-80KT LLJ TRAVERSES THE AREA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE WARM FRONT/UPPER TROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH WINDS NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND
SMYTH/TAZEWELL/MERCER REGION WITH THE STRONG LLJ. SOME MODERATE
RAIN MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS WITH
UPSLOPE COMPONENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 50S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EST SATURDAY...

BROAD SOUTHWEST 500 MB FLOW ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WELL DEFINED
VORTICITY MAXIMUM TRACK FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY MORNING.

STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND IMPRESSIVE UPSLOPE WINDS SUNDAY
EVENING WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ON THE EAST
SLOPES AND FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE RIDGE. PLUS THE SOUTHEAST WIND WILL
BE ADVECTING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES UP THE
RIDGES. AXIS OF CONVERGENCE CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA BY 06Z/1AM
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SHARP DRY SLOT IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING.

IN-SITU WEDGE ERODES ONCE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS WITH STRONG WARM
AIR ADVECTION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. BEHIND THE RAIN ON
MONDAY 850 MB TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE +10 TO +12
RANGE. BUT BY THE END OF THE DAY THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED
EAST THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS BRING THE 850 MB FRONT THROUGH DURING
THE EVENING. EXPECTING A NON DIURNAL RISE IN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
NIGHT THEN ABOVE NORMAL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

THE BIG PUSH OF COLDER AIR COMES IN TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE COUNTY WARNING AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH LATE TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL RESULT IN EAST WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS WILL BRING DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA AS WELL AS A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. HOW FAR WEST THE PRECIPITATION WILL REACH
WAS STILL QUESTIONABLE. IF PRECIPITATION EXTENDS ALL THE WAY TO THE
BLUE RIDGE...TEMPERATURES MAY BE COLD ENOUGH ON THE WESTERN EDGE TO
HAVE SNOW OR A RAIN SNOW MIX. TOO SOON TO TELL IF THERE WILL BE ANY
PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY FALLING...MUCH LESS ANY AMOUNTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EST SATURDAY...

TWO DISTINCT SYSTEMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR BRING SOME PRECIPITATION
TO PARTS OF THE AREA DURING THIS SEGMENT OF THE FORECAST. THE FIRST
ITEM OF INTEREST IS A LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG A
BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT WILL BE POSITIONED ALONG THE COAST DURING THE
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE
STILL INCONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER...AND WITH THEIR OWN PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS REGARDING THE TIMING...TRACK AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS FEATURE. YESTERDAY...THE ECWMF WAS THE ONLY OPERATIONAL
MODEL RUN THAT HINTED AT PRECIPITATION SKIRTING THE EASTERN EXTENT
OF THE FORECAST AREA. TODAY...ITS SOLUTIONS IS MORE ROBUST ON THIS
SCENARIO WITH PRECIPITATION NOW THE WHOLE WAY WEST TO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. TODAY...THE GFS SOLUTION IS ONLY SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST AS
COMPARED TO THE ECWMF FROM YESTERDAY...BUT STILL...HAS ALL BUT OUR
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES WITH AT LEAST 0.01 PRECIP. THE
CANADIAN SOLUTION KEEPS THE SYSTEM FARTHER OFF THE COAST WITH NOT A
DROP OF PRECIPITATION REACHING THE FORECAST AREA. OUR FORECAST FROM
YESTERDAY REFLECTED A MODEL BLEND CONSENSUS THAT WAS MORE IN LINE
WITH THE WETTER ECWMF SOLUTION. GIVEN BOTH THE GFS AND ECWMF ARE
WETTER FOR THE REGION...AND THE MODEL BLEND CONSENSUS IS ALSO WETTER
ACROSS THE REGION...HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT IN THE FORECAST.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO REFLECT 50
PERCENT IN THE EAST...WITH 20 TO 25 PERCENT IN THE WEST. SURFACE AND
LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MAINLY A SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW
FORECAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY...WITH PRIMARILY RAIN
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR ARRIVING ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR MORE LIGHT
SNOW...BUT WITH THE SYSTEM EXITING...MUCH LESS COVERAGE.

OUT NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT ZIPS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION
DURING THE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECWMF SOLUTIONS HAVE CHANGED COMPARED TO THEIR -24 HOUR
COUNTERPARTS. PRIOR...MODEL SOLUTIONS WERE HINTING AT A MORE
PROLONGED CLOSED LOW STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
WITH A MORE PROFOUND SHOT OF COLDER AIR IN ITS WAKE. THE LATEST
SOLUTIONS OFFER A MORE GLANCING BLOW OF ENERGY ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH THE COLDER AIR NOT HAVING AS MUCH CHANCE TO MAKE THE
TURN SOUTH PRIOR TO ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE
OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WHILE THE FORECAST WILL STILL OFFER SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL BE A BIT MILDER THAN WHAT AS OFFERED IN THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 635 PM EST SATURDAY...

GOING TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE AIRMASS
MOISTENS UP AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE MID MISS
VALLEY BRING A WARM FRONT ACROSS BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO ARRIVE BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON AT MOST SITES
WITH LIGHT RAIN FOLLOWING CLOSE BEHIND. MODERATE AND AT TIMES
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THE ROA/BCB LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
NAM/LOCAL WRF MODEL ALSO SHOW POTENTIAL LOW LVL WIND SHEAR
CONCERNS TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON AS THE STRONG LOW LVL JET MOVES
INTO THE MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS. LEFT IT OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW GIVEN
RAIN AND POTENTIAL EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS.

LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND
MORE GUSTY ON SUNDAY. WINDS AT BLF MAY STAY UP A BIT TONIGHT AS
THE INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AND WARM FRONT START TO
BE FELT.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.


EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

RAIN AND WIND CONTINUE WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT.
A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR DURING MONDAY OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A
DRY SLOT DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE EXITING FRONT FROM SUNDAY AND THE
NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. MONDAY INTO TUESDAY LOOK TO FEATURE
QUITE A BIT OF WIND. NW FLOW INTO MAY KEEP SUB VFR CIGS INTO BLF
AND POSSIBLE LWB...WITH VFR TO THE EAST. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
WHICH MAY BRING WINTRY PRECIP TO THE AREA ALONG WITH SUB VFR AT
ALL SITES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 215 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WILL BE OUT
OF SERVICE UNTIL PARTS ARRIVE TO REPLACE THE SENSOR. UNTIL THEN
THE VISIBILITY WILL ONLY BE REPORTED WHEN THE CONTROL TOWER IS
STAFFED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/MBS
NEAR TERM...KK/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...KK/MBS/WP
EQUIPMENT...RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 222349
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
649 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THEN...A STORM SYSTEM MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND CENTRAL MID
ATLANTIC REGION...BRINGING WET AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
TUESDAY...RETURNING TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REST OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM EST SATURDAY...

SKIES MAINLY CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH LOW DEWPOINTS. TEMPS HAVE
FALLEN FASTER ONCE THE SUN WENT DOWN...SO ADJUSTED TEMPS TO COOL
THEM DOWN INTO LATE EVENING. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD THICKEN UP
PRIOR TO DAWN ALLOWING TEMPS TO STEADY OUT OR WARM. THE TEMPS
MAINLY ADJUSTED DOWN WERE EAST OF THE ALLEGHANYS AND VA/WV
BORDER...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES KEEPING PLACES LIKE BLUEFIELD
AND RICHLANDS CLOSE TO 45 TO 50. OTHER TWEAKS MADE TO LOWER SKY
COVER SOME THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE TONIGHT AS DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF APPROACHING WARM FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT WILL INCREASE IN THE WEST
SUNDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
20S IN THE COLDER NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 30S IN THE
SOUTHEAST...BUT WARMER IN THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE OF SW VA INTO THE
MTNS OF SRN WV WHERE AROUND 40 WILL BE THE MIN.

A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. IN
ADVANCE OF A BROAD TROF WILL CURVES OUT IN THE CENTRAL U.S. SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...LEADING SHORTWAVE WILL TAKE ON A STRONG NEGATIVE TILT
AND ROTATE OUT OF THE ARKLATEX REGION TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD OVERRUNNING RAIN. SHAPED TIMING AND POPS
FOR RAIN TOWARDS A BLEND OF GFS...NAM AND HIRESW-ARW WITH MOISTURE
SPREADING QUICKLY UP THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE WITH THE ISENTROPIC
LIFT.

WINDS ARE ANOTHER CONCERN WITH A 70-80KT LLJ TRAVERSES THE AREA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE WARM FRONT/UPPER TROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH WINDS NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND
SMYTH/TAZEWELL/MERCER REGION WITH THE STRONG LLJ. SOME MODERATE
RAIN MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS WITH
UPSLOPE COMPONENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 50S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EST SATURDAY...

BROAD SOUTHWEST 500 MB FLOW ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WELL DEFINED
VORTICITY MAXIMUM TRACK FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY MORNING.

STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND IMPRESSIVE UPSLOPE WINDS SUNDAY
EVENING WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ON THE EAST
SLOPES AND FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE RIDGE. PLUS THE SOUTHEAST WIND WILL
BE ADVECTING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES UP THE
RIDGES. AXIS OF CONVERGENCE CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA BY 06Z/1AM
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SHARP DRY SLOT IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING.

IN-SITU WEDGE ERODES ONCE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS WITH STRONG WARM
AIR ADVECTION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. BEHIND THE RAIN ON
MONDAY 850 MB TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE +10 TO +12
RANGE. BUT BY THE END OF THE DAY THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED
EAST THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS BRING THE 850 MB FRONT THROUGH DURING
THE EVENING. EXPECTING A NON DIURNAL RISE IN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
NIGHT THEN ABOVE NORMAL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

THE BIG PUSH OF COLDER AIR COMES IN TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE COUNTY WARNING AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH LATE TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL RESULT IN EAST WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS WILL BRING DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA AS WELL AS A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. HOW FAR WEST THE PRECIPITATION WILL REACH
WAS STILL QUESTIONABLE. IF PRECIPITATION EXTENDS ALL THE WAY TO THE
BLUE RIDGE...TEMPERATURES MAY BE COLD ENOUGH ON THE WESTERN EDGE TO
HAVE SNOW OR A RAIN SNOW MIX. TOO SOON TO TELL IF THERE WILL BE ANY
PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY FALLING...MUCH LESS ANY AMOUNTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EST SATURDAY...

TWO DISTINCT SYSTEMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR BRING SOME PRECIPITATION
TO PARTS OF THE AREA DURING THIS SEGMENT OF THE FORECAST. THE FIRST
ITEM OF INTEREST IS A LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG A
BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT WILL BE POSITIONED ALONG THE COAST DURING THE
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE
STILL INCONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER...AND WITH THEIR OWN PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS REGARDING THE TIMING...TRACK AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS FEATURE. YESTERDAY...THE ECWMF WAS THE ONLY OPERATIONAL
MODEL RUN THAT HINTED AT PRECIPITATION SKIRTING THE EASTERN EXTENT
OF THE FORECAST AREA. TODAY...ITS SOLUTIONS IS MORE ROBUST ON THIS
SCENARIO WITH PRECIPITATION NOW THE WHOLE WAY WEST TO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. TODAY...THE GFS SOLUTION IS ONLY SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST AS
COMPARED TO THE ECWMF FROM YESTERDAY...BUT STILL...HAS ALL BUT OUR
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES WITH AT LEAST 0.01 PRECIP. THE
CANADIAN SOLUTION KEEPS THE SYSTEM FARTHER OFF THE COAST WITH NOT A
DROP OF PRECIPITATION REACHING THE FORECAST AREA. OUR FORECAST FROM
YESTERDAY REFLECTED A MODEL BLEND CONSENSUS THAT WAS MORE IN LINE
WITH THE WETTER ECWMF SOLUTION. GIVEN BOTH THE GFS AND ECWMF ARE
WETTER FOR THE REGION...AND THE MODEL BLEND CONSENSUS IS ALSO WETTER
ACROSS THE REGION...HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT IN THE FORECAST.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO REFLECT 50
PERCENT IN THE EAST...WITH 20 TO 25 PERCENT IN THE WEST. SURFACE AND
LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MAINLY A SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW
FORECAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY...WITH PRIMARILY RAIN
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR ARRIVING ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR MORE LIGHT
SNOW...BUT WITH THE SYSTEM EXITING...MUCH LESS COVERAGE.

OUT NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT ZIPS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION
DURING THE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECWMF SOLUTIONS HAVE CHANGED COMPARED TO THEIR -24 HOUR
COUNTERPARTS. PRIOR...MODEL SOLUTIONS WERE HINTING AT A MORE
PROLONGED CLOSED LOW STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
WITH A MORE PROFOUND SHOT OF COLDER AIR IN ITS WAKE. THE LATEST
SOLUTIONS OFFER A MORE GLANCING BLOW OF ENERGY ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH THE COLDER AIR NOT HAVING AS MUCH CHANCE TO MAKE THE
TURN SOUTH PRIOR TO ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE
OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WHILE THE FORECAST WILL STILL OFFER SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL BE A BIT MILDER THAN WHAT AS OFFERED IN THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 635 PM EST SATURDAY...

GOING TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE AIRMASS
MOISTENS UP AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE MID MISS
VALLEY BRING A WARM FRONT ACROSS BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO ARRIVE BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON AT MOST SITES
WITH LIGHT RAIN FOLLOWING CLOSE BEHIND. MODERATE AND AT TIMES
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THE ROA/BCB LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
NAM/LOCAL WRF MODEL ALSO SHOW POTENTIAL LOW LVL WIND SHEAR
CONCERNS TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON AS THE STRONG LOW LVL JET MOVES
INTO THE MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS. LEFT IT OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW GIVEN
RAIN AND POTENTIAL EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS.

LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND
MORE GUSTY ON SUNDAY. WINDS AT BLF MAY STAY UP A BIT TONIGHT AS
THE INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AND WARM FRONT START TO
BE FELT.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.


EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

RAIN AND WIND CONTINUE WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT.
A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR DURING MONDAY OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A
DRY SLOT DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE EXITING FRONT FROM SUNDAY AND THE
NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. MONDAY INTO TUESDAY LOOK TO FEATURE
QUITE A BIT OF WIND. NW FLOW INTO MAY KEEP SUB VFR CIGS INTO BLF
AND POSSIBLE LWB...WITH VFR TO THE EAST. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
WHICH MAY BRING WINTRY PRECIP TO THE AREA ALONG WITH SUB VFR AT
ALL SITES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 215 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WILL BE OUT
OF SERVICE UNTIL PARTS ARRIVE TO REPLACE THE SENSOR. UNTIL THEN
THE VISIBILITY WILL ONLY BE REPORTED WHEN THE CONTROL TOWER IS
STAFFED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/MBS
NEAR TERM...KK/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...KK/MBS/WP
EQUIPMENT...RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 222349
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
649 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THEN...A STORM SYSTEM MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND CENTRAL MID
ATLANTIC REGION...BRINGING WET AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
TUESDAY...RETURNING TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REST OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM EST SATURDAY...

SKIES MAINLY CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH LOW DEWPOINTS. TEMPS HAVE
FALLEN FASTER ONCE THE SUN WENT DOWN...SO ADJUSTED TEMPS TO COOL
THEM DOWN INTO LATE EVENING. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD THICKEN UP
PRIOR TO DAWN ALLOWING TEMPS TO STEADY OUT OR WARM. THE TEMPS
MAINLY ADJUSTED DOWN WERE EAST OF THE ALLEGHANYS AND VA/WV
BORDER...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES KEEPING PLACES LIKE BLUEFIELD
AND RICHLANDS CLOSE TO 45 TO 50. OTHER TWEAKS MADE TO LOWER SKY
COVER SOME THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE TONIGHT AS DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF APPROACHING WARM FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT WILL INCREASE IN THE WEST
SUNDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
20S IN THE COLDER NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 30S IN THE
SOUTHEAST...BUT WARMER IN THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE OF SW VA INTO THE
MTNS OF SRN WV WHERE AROUND 40 WILL BE THE MIN.

A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. IN
ADVANCE OF A BROAD TROF WILL CURVES OUT IN THE CENTRAL U.S. SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...LEADING SHORTWAVE WILL TAKE ON A STRONG NEGATIVE TILT
AND ROTATE OUT OF THE ARKLATEX REGION TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD OVERRUNNING RAIN. SHAPED TIMING AND POPS
FOR RAIN TOWARDS A BLEND OF GFS...NAM AND HIRESW-ARW WITH MOISTURE
SPREADING QUICKLY UP THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE WITH THE ISENTROPIC
LIFT.

WINDS ARE ANOTHER CONCERN WITH A 70-80KT LLJ TRAVERSES THE AREA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE WARM FRONT/UPPER TROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH WINDS NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND
SMYTH/TAZEWELL/MERCER REGION WITH THE STRONG LLJ. SOME MODERATE
RAIN MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS WITH
UPSLOPE COMPONENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 50S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EST SATURDAY...

BROAD SOUTHWEST 500 MB FLOW ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WELL DEFINED
VORTICITY MAXIMUM TRACK FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY MORNING.

STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND IMPRESSIVE UPSLOPE WINDS SUNDAY
EVENING WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ON THE EAST
SLOPES AND FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE RIDGE. PLUS THE SOUTHEAST WIND WILL
BE ADVECTING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES UP THE
RIDGES. AXIS OF CONVERGENCE CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA BY 06Z/1AM
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SHARP DRY SLOT IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING.

IN-SITU WEDGE ERODES ONCE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS WITH STRONG WARM
AIR ADVECTION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. BEHIND THE RAIN ON
MONDAY 850 MB TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE +10 TO +12
RANGE. BUT BY THE END OF THE DAY THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED
EAST THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS BRING THE 850 MB FRONT THROUGH DURING
THE EVENING. EXPECTING A NON DIURNAL RISE IN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
NIGHT THEN ABOVE NORMAL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

THE BIG PUSH OF COLDER AIR COMES IN TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE COUNTY WARNING AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH LATE TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL RESULT IN EAST WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS WILL BRING DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA AS WELL AS A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. HOW FAR WEST THE PRECIPITATION WILL REACH
WAS STILL QUESTIONABLE. IF PRECIPITATION EXTENDS ALL THE WAY TO THE
BLUE RIDGE...TEMPERATURES MAY BE COLD ENOUGH ON THE WESTERN EDGE TO
HAVE SNOW OR A RAIN SNOW MIX. TOO SOON TO TELL IF THERE WILL BE ANY
PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY FALLING...MUCH LESS ANY AMOUNTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EST SATURDAY...

TWO DISTINCT SYSTEMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR BRING SOME PRECIPITATION
TO PARTS OF THE AREA DURING THIS SEGMENT OF THE FORECAST. THE FIRST
ITEM OF INTEREST IS A LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG A
BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT WILL BE POSITIONED ALONG THE COAST DURING THE
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE
STILL INCONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER...AND WITH THEIR OWN PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS REGARDING THE TIMING...TRACK AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS FEATURE. YESTERDAY...THE ECWMF WAS THE ONLY OPERATIONAL
MODEL RUN THAT HINTED AT PRECIPITATION SKIRTING THE EASTERN EXTENT
OF THE FORECAST AREA. TODAY...ITS SOLUTIONS IS MORE ROBUST ON THIS
SCENARIO WITH PRECIPITATION NOW THE WHOLE WAY WEST TO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. TODAY...THE GFS SOLUTION IS ONLY SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST AS
COMPARED TO THE ECWMF FROM YESTERDAY...BUT STILL...HAS ALL BUT OUR
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES WITH AT LEAST 0.01 PRECIP. THE
CANADIAN SOLUTION KEEPS THE SYSTEM FARTHER OFF THE COAST WITH NOT A
DROP OF PRECIPITATION REACHING THE FORECAST AREA. OUR FORECAST FROM
YESTERDAY REFLECTED A MODEL BLEND CONSENSUS THAT WAS MORE IN LINE
WITH THE WETTER ECWMF SOLUTION. GIVEN BOTH THE GFS AND ECWMF ARE
WETTER FOR THE REGION...AND THE MODEL BLEND CONSENSUS IS ALSO WETTER
ACROSS THE REGION...HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT IN THE FORECAST.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO REFLECT 50
PERCENT IN THE EAST...WITH 20 TO 25 PERCENT IN THE WEST. SURFACE AND
LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MAINLY A SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW
FORECAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY...WITH PRIMARILY RAIN
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR ARRIVING ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR MORE LIGHT
SNOW...BUT WITH THE SYSTEM EXITING...MUCH LESS COVERAGE.

OUT NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT ZIPS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION
DURING THE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECWMF SOLUTIONS HAVE CHANGED COMPARED TO THEIR -24 HOUR
COUNTERPARTS. PRIOR...MODEL SOLUTIONS WERE HINTING AT A MORE
PROLONGED CLOSED LOW STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
WITH A MORE PROFOUND SHOT OF COLDER AIR IN ITS WAKE. THE LATEST
SOLUTIONS OFFER A MORE GLANCING BLOW OF ENERGY ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH THE COLDER AIR NOT HAVING AS MUCH CHANCE TO MAKE THE
TURN SOUTH PRIOR TO ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE
OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WHILE THE FORECAST WILL STILL OFFER SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL BE A BIT MILDER THAN WHAT AS OFFERED IN THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 635 PM EST SATURDAY...

GOING TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE AIRMASS
MOISTENS UP AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE MID MISS
VALLEY BRING A WARM FRONT ACROSS BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO ARRIVE BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON AT MOST SITES
WITH LIGHT RAIN FOLLOWING CLOSE BEHIND. MODERATE AND AT TIMES
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THE ROA/BCB LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
NAM/LOCAL WRF MODEL ALSO SHOW POTENTIAL LOW LVL WIND SHEAR
CONCERNS TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON AS THE STRONG LOW LVL JET MOVES
INTO THE MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS. LEFT IT OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW GIVEN
RAIN AND POTENTIAL EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS.

LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND
MORE GUSTY ON SUNDAY. WINDS AT BLF MAY STAY UP A BIT TONIGHT AS
THE INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AND WARM FRONT START TO
BE FELT.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.


EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

RAIN AND WIND CONTINUE WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT.
A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR DURING MONDAY OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A
DRY SLOT DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE EXITING FRONT FROM SUNDAY AND THE
NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. MONDAY INTO TUESDAY LOOK TO FEATURE
QUITE A BIT OF WIND. NW FLOW INTO MAY KEEP SUB VFR CIGS INTO BLF
AND POSSIBLE LWB...WITH VFR TO THE EAST. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
WHICH MAY BRING WINTRY PRECIP TO THE AREA ALONG WITH SUB VFR AT
ALL SITES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 215 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WILL BE OUT
OF SERVICE UNTIL PARTS ARRIVE TO REPLACE THE SENSOR. UNTIL THEN
THE VISIBILITY WILL ONLY BE REPORTED WHEN THE CONTROL TOWER IS
STAFFED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/MBS
NEAR TERM...KK/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...KK/MBS/WP
EQUIPMENT...RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 222349
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
649 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THEN...A STORM SYSTEM MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND CENTRAL MID
ATLANTIC REGION...BRINGING WET AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
TUESDAY...RETURNING TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REST OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM EST SATURDAY...

SKIES MAINLY CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH LOW DEWPOINTS. TEMPS HAVE
FALLEN FASTER ONCE THE SUN WENT DOWN...SO ADJUSTED TEMPS TO COOL
THEM DOWN INTO LATE EVENING. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD THICKEN UP
PRIOR TO DAWN ALLOWING TEMPS TO STEADY OUT OR WARM. THE TEMPS
MAINLY ADJUSTED DOWN WERE EAST OF THE ALLEGHANYS AND VA/WV
BORDER...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES KEEPING PLACES LIKE BLUEFIELD
AND RICHLANDS CLOSE TO 45 TO 50. OTHER TWEAKS MADE TO LOWER SKY
COVER SOME THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE TONIGHT AS DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF APPROACHING WARM FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT WILL INCREASE IN THE WEST
SUNDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
20S IN THE COLDER NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 30S IN THE
SOUTHEAST...BUT WARMER IN THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE OF SW VA INTO THE
MTNS OF SRN WV WHERE AROUND 40 WILL BE THE MIN.

A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. IN
ADVANCE OF A BROAD TROF WILL CURVES OUT IN THE CENTRAL U.S. SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...LEADING SHORTWAVE WILL TAKE ON A STRONG NEGATIVE TILT
AND ROTATE OUT OF THE ARKLATEX REGION TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD OVERRUNNING RAIN. SHAPED TIMING AND POPS
FOR RAIN TOWARDS A BLEND OF GFS...NAM AND HIRESW-ARW WITH MOISTURE
SPREADING QUICKLY UP THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE WITH THE ISENTROPIC
LIFT.

WINDS ARE ANOTHER CONCERN WITH A 70-80KT LLJ TRAVERSES THE AREA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE WARM FRONT/UPPER TROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH WINDS NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND
SMYTH/TAZEWELL/MERCER REGION WITH THE STRONG LLJ. SOME MODERATE
RAIN MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS WITH
UPSLOPE COMPONENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 50S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EST SATURDAY...

BROAD SOUTHWEST 500 MB FLOW ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WELL DEFINED
VORTICITY MAXIMUM TRACK FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY MORNING.

STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND IMPRESSIVE UPSLOPE WINDS SUNDAY
EVENING WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ON THE EAST
SLOPES AND FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE RIDGE. PLUS THE SOUTHEAST WIND WILL
BE ADVECTING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES UP THE
RIDGES. AXIS OF CONVERGENCE CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA BY 06Z/1AM
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SHARP DRY SLOT IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING.

IN-SITU WEDGE ERODES ONCE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS WITH STRONG WARM
AIR ADVECTION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. BEHIND THE RAIN ON
MONDAY 850 MB TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE +10 TO +12
RANGE. BUT BY THE END OF THE DAY THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED
EAST THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS BRING THE 850 MB FRONT THROUGH DURING
THE EVENING. EXPECTING A NON DIURNAL RISE IN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
NIGHT THEN ABOVE NORMAL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

THE BIG PUSH OF COLDER AIR COMES IN TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE COUNTY WARNING AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH LATE TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL RESULT IN EAST WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS WILL BRING DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA AS WELL AS A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. HOW FAR WEST THE PRECIPITATION WILL REACH
WAS STILL QUESTIONABLE. IF PRECIPITATION EXTENDS ALL THE WAY TO THE
BLUE RIDGE...TEMPERATURES MAY BE COLD ENOUGH ON THE WESTERN EDGE TO
HAVE SNOW OR A RAIN SNOW MIX. TOO SOON TO TELL IF THERE WILL BE ANY
PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY FALLING...MUCH LESS ANY AMOUNTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EST SATURDAY...

TWO DISTINCT SYSTEMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR BRING SOME PRECIPITATION
TO PARTS OF THE AREA DURING THIS SEGMENT OF THE FORECAST. THE FIRST
ITEM OF INTEREST IS A LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG A
BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT WILL BE POSITIONED ALONG THE COAST DURING THE
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE
STILL INCONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER...AND WITH THEIR OWN PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS REGARDING THE TIMING...TRACK AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS FEATURE. YESTERDAY...THE ECWMF WAS THE ONLY OPERATIONAL
MODEL RUN THAT HINTED AT PRECIPITATION SKIRTING THE EASTERN EXTENT
OF THE FORECAST AREA. TODAY...ITS SOLUTIONS IS MORE ROBUST ON THIS
SCENARIO WITH PRECIPITATION NOW THE WHOLE WAY WEST TO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. TODAY...THE GFS SOLUTION IS ONLY SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST AS
COMPARED TO THE ECWMF FROM YESTERDAY...BUT STILL...HAS ALL BUT OUR
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES WITH AT LEAST 0.01 PRECIP. THE
CANADIAN SOLUTION KEEPS THE SYSTEM FARTHER OFF THE COAST WITH NOT A
DROP OF PRECIPITATION REACHING THE FORECAST AREA. OUR FORECAST FROM
YESTERDAY REFLECTED A MODEL BLEND CONSENSUS THAT WAS MORE IN LINE
WITH THE WETTER ECWMF SOLUTION. GIVEN BOTH THE GFS AND ECWMF ARE
WETTER FOR THE REGION...AND THE MODEL BLEND CONSENSUS IS ALSO WETTER
ACROSS THE REGION...HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT IN THE FORECAST.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO REFLECT 50
PERCENT IN THE EAST...WITH 20 TO 25 PERCENT IN THE WEST. SURFACE AND
LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MAINLY A SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW
FORECAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY...WITH PRIMARILY RAIN
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR ARRIVING ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR MORE LIGHT
SNOW...BUT WITH THE SYSTEM EXITING...MUCH LESS COVERAGE.

OUT NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT ZIPS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION
DURING THE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECWMF SOLUTIONS HAVE CHANGED COMPARED TO THEIR -24 HOUR
COUNTERPARTS. PRIOR...MODEL SOLUTIONS WERE HINTING AT A MORE
PROLONGED CLOSED LOW STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
WITH A MORE PROFOUND SHOT OF COLDER AIR IN ITS WAKE. THE LATEST
SOLUTIONS OFFER A MORE GLANCING BLOW OF ENERGY ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH THE COLDER AIR NOT HAVING AS MUCH CHANCE TO MAKE THE
TURN SOUTH PRIOR TO ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE
OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WHILE THE FORECAST WILL STILL OFFER SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL BE A BIT MILDER THAN WHAT AS OFFERED IN THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 635 PM EST SATURDAY...

GOING TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE AIRMASS
MOISTENS UP AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE MID MISS
VALLEY BRING A WARM FRONT ACROSS BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO ARRIVE BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON AT MOST SITES
WITH LIGHT RAIN FOLLOWING CLOSE BEHIND. MODERATE AND AT TIMES
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THE ROA/BCB LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
NAM/LOCAL WRF MODEL ALSO SHOW POTENTIAL LOW LVL WIND SHEAR
CONCERNS TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON AS THE STRONG LOW LVL JET MOVES
INTO THE MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS. LEFT IT OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW GIVEN
RAIN AND POTENTIAL EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS.

LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND
MORE GUSTY ON SUNDAY. WINDS AT BLF MAY STAY UP A BIT TONIGHT AS
THE INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AND WARM FRONT START TO
BE FELT.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.


EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

RAIN AND WIND CONTINUE WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT.
A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR DURING MONDAY OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A
DRY SLOT DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE EXITING FRONT FROM SUNDAY AND THE
NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. MONDAY INTO TUESDAY LOOK TO FEATURE
QUITE A BIT OF WIND. NW FLOW INTO MAY KEEP SUB VFR CIGS INTO BLF
AND POSSIBLE LWB...WITH VFR TO THE EAST. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
WHICH MAY BRING WINTRY PRECIP TO THE AREA ALONG WITH SUB VFR AT
ALL SITES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 215 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WILL BE OUT
OF SERVICE UNTIL PARTS ARRIVE TO REPLACE THE SENSOR. UNTIL THEN
THE VISIBILITY WILL ONLY BE REPORTED WHEN THE CONTROL TOWER IS
STAFFED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/MBS
NEAR TERM...KK/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...KK/MBS/WP
EQUIPMENT...RAB




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 222157
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
457 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND
MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY INDICATES A POTENT TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS
TX...WITH A BROAD RIDGE DOWNSTREAM COVERING THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A ~1032MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR
THE NC OUTER BANKS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS GENERALLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS WITH ONLY A FEW THIN BANDS OF CIRRUS STREAMING OVERHEAD.
AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HAVE
MODERATED INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S WITH A LIGHT SSW WIND ON THE
NW PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SLIDE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.
MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE
GULF COAST. AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE DOMINATED
BY THE CURRENT COOL/DRY AIRMASS. HENCE TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP
QUICKLY INTO THE 30S THIS EVENING UNDER A CLEAR SKY...EVENTUALLY
REACHING OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S. HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD
THICKEN LATE...AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. HENCE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BECOME STEADY OR EVEN
SLOWLY RISE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE...THICKEN...AND LOWER FROM THE SW SUN
AS GULF COAST MOISTURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFT NE THROUGH
THE SE CONUS...AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT SOME RAIN
SHOULD ARRIVE IN SW PORTIONS LATE IN THE DAY...WITH 60% POPS SW
LATE IN THE DAY...BORDERED BY A 30-50% POP FROM THE NW PIEDMONT
THROUGH NE NC. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW TO LOW 60S
SE.

THE WARM FRONT WITH STRONG VERTICAL MOTION WILL CROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION PRIMARILY FROM SUN EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE (+3 ST DEV PW 03-06Z MON PER
22/15Z SREF) WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT DUE TO A STRONG NEARLY 70KT
LLJ. POPS FOR RAIN DURING THE 12HR PERIOD SUN NIGHT HAVE BEEN
RAISED TO 100%. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
COASTAL NE NC. HOWEVER...0-3KM LAPSE RATES SEEM TO BE A LIMITING
FACTOR THROUGHOUT THE 22/12Z SUITE OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...OFFSETTING
A STRONG AMBIENT WIND FIELD. GIVEN THIS...THE SPC SLIGHT RISK HAS
BEEN SHUNTED S OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND 6HR PRESSURE FALLS OF -7MB TO -10MB PER 22/12Z GFS
WILL RESULT IN BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF
THE COAST. GUSTS FROM THE SSE DIRECTION OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. LOWS SUN NIGHT SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 50S...WITH
READINGS LIKELY TO RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG FORCING AND
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN A ~6HR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN SUN NIGHT...WITH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS
AVERAGING 1.00-1.25IN.

THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NNE OF THE REGION BY 12Z MON...WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING TOWARD THE FAR WRN COUNTIES BY 00Z TUE. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE MON MORNING...WITH A GUSTY SW WIND
DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S (SEE THE
THE CLIMO SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS). 22/12Z NAM LINGERS MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO 20-30% DUE TO THE APPROACH
OF THE COLD FRONT AND SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT AND TUE. PARTIAL
CLEARING IS POSSIBLE INLAND...WITH CLOUDS LINGERING NEAR THE COAST
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER TUE. HIGHS TUE SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO LOW 60S SE...AFTER MORNING LOWS FROM THE
MID 40S NW...TO LOW/MID 50S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. MODELS NOW SHOWING SRN STREAM LO PRES OVR THE ERN GULF TUE
EVENG...WILL TRACK NNE AND JUST OFF THE EAST CST TUE NGT INTO WED
NGT. THUS...HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR RAIN TO 40%-60% (HIGHEST IN THE
ERN HALF OF THE REGION) DURING WED. PCPN/MOIST THEN MOVES E OF THE
AREA AND OFF THE CST LATER WED EVENG/WED NGT...WITH POPS DIMINISHING
FM W TO E. A MAINLY DRY FRONT SWINGS ACRS THE AREA THU AFTN INTO
EARLY FRI MORNG. HI PRES WILL THEN BLD INTO AND OVR THE REGION FRI
THRU SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S WED...IN THE UPR 40S TO LWR
50S THU...IN THE MID TO UPR 40S FRI...AND RANGE THRU THE 40S SAT.
MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S WED MORNG...IN THE UPR
20S TO MID 30S THU AND FRI MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S
SAT MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE VA/NC BOARDER WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST DURING THE EVENING. THIS WILL CONTINUE A SOUTHERLY WIND
DIRECTION WHILE INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.

A MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL HELP FORM A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE SE US AS THE MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVES NE OUT OF THE GOMEX
ON SUN. THIS WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE MOISTURE AS A WARM FRONT
SURGES THROUGH THE AREA SUN NIGHT. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS(POSSIBLY
LOWER) DUE TO LOWERED CEILINGS AND REDUCED VIS DUE TO RAIN.
ALSO...WIND GUST TO 35KT MAY BE POSSIBLE MON MORNING AS THE SYSTEM
DEEPENS OVER THE AREA. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE OVER NE NC/SE VA.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE HOISTED SCA`S FOR THE ENTIRE WTRS STARTING SUN EVENG...AND
LASTING THRU MON AFTN/EVENG OR MON NGT FOR THE CHES BAY/CURRITUCK
SND AND THE CSTL WTRS. HI PRES SLIDES OUT TO SEA DURING SUN...WITH
LO PRES MOVNG FM THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY NNE THRU THE GRT LKS AND
INTO ERN CANADA SUN EVENG INTO MON NGT. SE OR S WINDS WILL
INCREASE ACRS THE WTRS/REGION LATE SUN INTO MON MORNG IN ADVANCE
OF A COLD FRONT. SE OR S WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO/ARND
30 KNOTS EXPECTED SUN EVENG INTO MON EVENG...WITH WAVES BLDNG TO 3
TO 5 FT IN THE CHES BAY...AND SEAS BLDNG TO 5 TO 8 FEET ON THE
CSTL WTRS. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WTRS MON NGT...WITH CALMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE INTO TUE NGT. STRONG NE OR N WINDS THEN
EXPECTED WED INTO WED NGT...AS LO PRES TRACKS NWRD JUST OFF THE
EAST CST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED MONDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

RIC 76 1979
ORF 78 1983
SBY 78 1931
ECG 77 1983

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ633-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...TMG
CLIMATE...AKQ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 222157
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
457 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND
MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY INDICATES A POTENT TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS
TX...WITH A BROAD RIDGE DOWNSTREAM COVERING THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A ~1032MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR
THE NC OUTER BANKS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS GENERALLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS WITH ONLY A FEW THIN BANDS OF CIRRUS STREAMING OVERHEAD.
AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HAVE
MODERATED INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S WITH A LIGHT SSW WIND ON THE
NW PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SLIDE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.
MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE
GULF COAST. AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE DOMINATED
BY THE CURRENT COOL/DRY AIRMASS. HENCE TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP
QUICKLY INTO THE 30S THIS EVENING UNDER A CLEAR SKY...EVENTUALLY
REACHING OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S. HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD
THICKEN LATE...AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. HENCE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BECOME STEADY OR EVEN
SLOWLY RISE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE...THICKEN...AND LOWER FROM THE SW SUN
AS GULF COAST MOISTURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFT NE THROUGH
THE SE CONUS...AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT SOME RAIN
SHOULD ARRIVE IN SW PORTIONS LATE IN THE DAY...WITH 60% POPS SW
LATE IN THE DAY...BORDERED BY A 30-50% POP FROM THE NW PIEDMONT
THROUGH NE NC. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW TO LOW 60S
SE.

THE WARM FRONT WITH STRONG VERTICAL MOTION WILL CROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION PRIMARILY FROM SUN EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE (+3 ST DEV PW 03-06Z MON PER
22/15Z SREF) WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT DUE TO A STRONG NEARLY 70KT
LLJ. POPS FOR RAIN DURING THE 12HR PERIOD SUN NIGHT HAVE BEEN
RAISED TO 100%. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
COASTAL NE NC. HOWEVER...0-3KM LAPSE RATES SEEM TO BE A LIMITING
FACTOR THROUGHOUT THE 22/12Z SUITE OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...OFFSETTING
A STRONG AMBIENT WIND FIELD. GIVEN THIS...THE SPC SLIGHT RISK HAS
BEEN SHUNTED S OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND 6HR PRESSURE FALLS OF -7MB TO -10MB PER 22/12Z GFS
WILL RESULT IN BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF
THE COAST. GUSTS FROM THE SSE DIRECTION OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. LOWS SUN NIGHT SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 50S...WITH
READINGS LIKELY TO RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG FORCING AND
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN A ~6HR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN SUN NIGHT...WITH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS
AVERAGING 1.00-1.25IN.

THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NNE OF THE REGION BY 12Z MON...WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING TOWARD THE FAR WRN COUNTIES BY 00Z TUE. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE MON MORNING...WITH A GUSTY SW WIND
DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S (SEE THE
THE CLIMO SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS). 22/12Z NAM LINGERS MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO 20-30% DUE TO THE APPROACH
OF THE COLD FRONT AND SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT AND TUE. PARTIAL
CLEARING IS POSSIBLE INLAND...WITH CLOUDS LINGERING NEAR THE COAST
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER TUE. HIGHS TUE SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO LOW 60S SE...AFTER MORNING LOWS FROM THE
MID 40S NW...TO LOW/MID 50S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. MODELS NOW SHOWING SRN STREAM LO PRES OVR THE ERN GULF TUE
EVENG...WILL TRACK NNE AND JUST OFF THE EAST CST TUE NGT INTO WED
NGT. THUS...HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR RAIN TO 40%-60% (HIGHEST IN THE
ERN HALF OF THE REGION) DURING WED. PCPN/MOIST THEN MOVES E OF THE
AREA AND OFF THE CST LATER WED EVENG/WED NGT...WITH POPS DIMINISHING
FM W TO E. A MAINLY DRY FRONT SWINGS ACRS THE AREA THU AFTN INTO
EARLY FRI MORNG. HI PRES WILL THEN BLD INTO AND OVR THE REGION FRI
THRU SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S WED...IN THE UPR 40S TO LWR
50S THU...IN THE MID TO UPR 40S FRI...AND RANGE THRU THE 40S SAT.
MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S WED MORNG...IN THE UPR
20S TO MID 30S THU AND FRI MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S
SAT MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE VA/NC BOARDER WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST DURING THE EVENING. THIS WILL CONTINUE A SOUTHERLY WIND
DIRECTION WHILE INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.

A MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL HELP FORM A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE SE US AS THE MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVES NE OUT OF THE GOMEX
ON SUN. THIS WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE MOISTURE AS A WARM FRONT
SURGES THROUGH THE AREA SUN NIGHT. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS(POSSIBLY
LOWER) DUE TO LOWERED CEILINGS AND REDUCED VIS DUE TO RAIN.
ALSO...WIND GUST TO 35KT MAY BE POSSIBLE MON MORNING AS THE SYSTEM
DEEPENS OVER THE AREA. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE OVER NE NC/SE VA.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE HOISTED SCA`S FOR THE ENTIRE WTRS STARTING SUN EVENG...AND
LASTING THRU MON AFTN/EVENG OR MON NGT FOR THE CHES BAY/CURRITUCK
SND AND THE CSTL WTRS. HI PRES SLIDES OUT TO SEA DURING SUN...WITH
LO PRES MOVNG FM THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY NNE THRU THE GRT LKS AND
INTO ERN CANADA SUN EVENG INTO MON NGT. SE OR S WINDS WILL
INCREASE ACRS THE WTRS/REGION LATE SUN INTO MON MORNG IN ADVANCE
OF A COLD FRONT. SE OR S WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO/ARND
30 KNOTS EXPECTED SUN EVENG INTO MON EVENG...WITH WAVES BLDNG TO 3
TO 5 FT IN THE CHES BAY...AND SEAS BLDNG TO 5 TO 8 FEET ON THE
CSTL WTRS. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WTRS MON NGT...WITH CALMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE INTO TUE NGT. STRONG NE OR N WINDS THEN
EXPECTED WED INTO WED NGT...AS LO PRES TRACKS NWRD JUST OFF THE
EAST CST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED MONDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

RIC 76 1979
ORF 78 1983
SBY 78 1931
ECG 77 1983

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ633-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...TMG
CLIMATE...AKQ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 222157
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
457 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND
MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY INDICATES A POTENT TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS
TX...WITH A BROAD RIDGE DOWNSTREAM COVERING THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A ~1032MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR
THE NC OUTER BANKS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS GENERALLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS WITH ONLY A FEW THIN BANDS OF CIRRUS STREAMING OVERHEAD.
AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HAVE
MODERATED INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S WITH A LIGHT SSW WIND ON THE
NW PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SLIDE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.
MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE
GULF COAST. AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE DOMINATED
BY THE CURRENT COOL/DRY AIRMASS. HENCE TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP
QUICKLY INTO THE 30S THIS EVENING UNDER A CLEAR SKY...EVENTUALLY
REACHING OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S. HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD
THICKEN LATE...AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. HENCE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BECOME STEADY OR EVEN
SLOWLY RISE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE...THICKEN...AND LOWER FROM THE SW SUN
AS GULF COAST MOISTURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFT NE THROUGH
THE SE CONUS...AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT SOME RAIN
SHOULD ARRIVE IN SW PORTIONS LATE IN THE DAY...WITH 60% POPS SW
LATE IN THE DAY...BORDERED BY A 30-50% POP FROM THE NW PIEDMONT
THROUGH NE NC. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW TO LOW 60S
SE.

THE WARM FRONT WITH STRONG VERTICAL MOTION WILL CROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION PRIMARILY FROM SUN EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE (+3 ST DEV PW 03-06Z MON PER
22/15Z SREF) WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT DUE TO A STRONG NEARLY 70KT
LLJ. POPS FOR RAIN DURING THE 12HR PERIOD SUN NIGHT HAVE BEEN
RAISED TO 100%. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
COASTAL NE NC. HOWEVER...0-3KM LAPSE RATES SEEM TO BE A LIMITING
FACTOR THROUGHOUT THE 22/12Z SUITE OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...OFFSETTING
A STRONG AMBIENT WIND FIELD. GIVEN THIS...THE SPC SLIGHT RISK HAS
BEEN SHUNTED S OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND 6HR PRESSURE FALLS OF -7MB TO -10MB PER 22/12Z GFS
WILL RESULT IN BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF
THE COAST. GUSTS FROM THE SSE DIRECTION OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. LOWS SUN NIGHT SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 50S...WITH
READINGS LIKELY TO RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG FORCING AND
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN A ~6HR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN SUN NIGHT...WITH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS
AVERAGING 1.00-1.25IN.

THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NNE OF THE REGION BY 12Z MON...WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING TOWARD THE FAR WRN COUNTIES BY 00Z TUE. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE MON MORNING...WITH A GUSTY SW WIND
DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S (SEE THE
THE CLIMO SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS). 22/12Z NAM LINGERS MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO 20-30% DUE TO THE APPROACH
OF THE COLD FRONT AND SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT AND TUE. PARTIAL
CLEARING IS POSSIBLE INLAND...WITH CLOUDS LINGERING NEAR THE COAST
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER TUE. HIGHS TUE SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO LOW 60S SE...AFTER MORNING LOWS FROM THE
MID 40S NW...TO LOW/MID 50S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. MODELS NOW SHOWING SRN STREAM LO PRES OVR THE ERN GULF TUE
EVENG...WILL TRACK NNE AND JUST OFF THE EAST CST TUE NGT INTO WED
NGT. THUS...HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR RAIN TO 40%-60% (HIGHEST IN THE
ERN HALF OF THE REGION) DURING WED. PCPN/MOIST THEN MOVES E OF THE
AREA AND OFF THE CST LATER WED EVENG/WED NGT...WITH POPS DIMINISHING
FM W TO E. A MAINLY DRY FRONT SWINGS ACRS THE AREA THU AFTN INTO
EARLY FRI MORNG. HI PRES WILL THEN BLD INTO AND OVR THE REGION FRI
THRU SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S WED...IN THE UPR 40S TO LWR
50S THU...IN THE MID TO UPR 40S FRI...AND RANGE THRU THE 40S SAT.
MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S WED MORNG...IN THE UPR
20S TO MID 30S THU AND FRI MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S
SAT MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE VA/NC BOARDER WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST DURING THE EVENING. THIS WILL CONTINUE A SOUTHERLY WIND
DIRECTION WHILE INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.

A MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL HELP FORM A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE SE US AS THE MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVES NE OUT OF THE GOMEX
ON SUN. THIS WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE MOISTURE AS A WARM FRONT
SURGES THROUGH THE AREA SUN NIGHT. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS(POSSIBLY
LOWER) DUE TO LOWERED CEILINGS AND REDUCED VIS DUE TO RAIN.
ALSO...WIND GUST TO 35KT MAY BE POSSIBLE MON MORNING AS THE SYSTEM
DEEPENS OVER THE AREA. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE OVER NE NC/SE VA.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE HOISTED SCA`S FOR THE ENTIRE WTRS STARTING SUN EVENG...AND
LASTING THRU MON AFTN/EVENG OR MON NGT FOR THE CHES BAY/CURRITUCK
SND AND THE CSTL WTRS. HI PRES SLIDES OUT TO SEA DURING SUN...WITH
LO PRES MOVNG FM THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY NNE THRU THE GRT LKS AND
INTO ERN CANADA SUN EVENG INTO MON NGT. SE OR S WINDS WILL
INCREASE ACRS THE WTRS/REGION LATE SUN INTO MON MORNG IN ADVANCE
OF A COLD FRONT. SE OR S WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO/ARND
30 KNOTS EXPECTED SUN EVENG INTO MON EVENG...WITH WAVES BLDNG TO 3
TO 5 FT IN THE CHES BAY...AND SEAS BLDNG TO 5 TO 8 FEET ON THE
CSTL WTRS. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WTRS MON NGT...WITH CALMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE INTO TUE NGT. STRONG NE OR N WINDS THEN
EXPECTED WED INTO WED NGT...AS LO PRES TRACKS NWRD JUST OFF THE
EAST CST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED MONDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

RIC 76 1979
ORF 78 1983
SBY 78 1931
ECG 77 1983

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ633-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...TMG
CLIMATE...AKQ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 222157
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
457 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND
MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY INDICATES A POTENT TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS
TX...WITH A BROAD RIDGE DOWNSTREAM COVERING THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A ~1032MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR
THE NC OUTER BANKS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS GENERALLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS WITH ONLY A FEW THIN BANDS OF CIRRUS STREAMING OVERHEAD.
AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HAVE
MODERATED INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S WITH A LIGHT SSW WIND ON THE
NW PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SLIDE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.
MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE
GULF COAST. AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE DOMINATED
BY THE CURRENT COOL/DRY AIRMASS. HENCE TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP
QUICKLY INTO THE 30S THIS EVENING UNDER A CLEAR SKY...EVENTUALLY
REACHING OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S. HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD
THICKEN LATE...AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. HENCE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BECOME STEADY OR EVEN
SLOWLY RISE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE...THICKEN...AND LOWER FROM THE SW SUN
AS GULF COAST MOISTURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFT NE THROUGH
THE SE CONUS...AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT SOME RAIN
SHOULD ARRIVE IN SW PORTIONS LATE IN THE DAY...WITH 60% POPS SW
LATE IN THE DAY...BORDERED BY A 30-50% POP FROM THE NW PIEDMONT
THROUGH NE NC. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW TO LOW 60S
SE.

THE WARM FRONT WITH STRONG VERTICAL MOTION WILL CROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION PRIMARILY FROM SUN EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE (+3 ST DEV PW 03-06Z MON PER
22/15Z SREF) WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT DUE TO A STRONG NEARLY 70KT
LLJ. POPS FOR RAIN DURING THE 12HR PERIOD SUN NIGHT HAVE BEEN
RAISED TO 100%. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
COASTAL NE NC. HOWEVER...0-3KM LAPSE RATES SEEM TO BE A LIMITING
FACTOR THROUGHOUT THE 22/12Z SUITE OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...OFFSETTING
A STRONG AMBIENT WIND FIELD. GIVEN THIS...THE SPC SLIGHT RISK HAS
BEEN SHUNTED S OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND 6HR PRESSURE FALLS OF -7MB TO -10MB PER 22/12Z GFS
WILL RESULT IN BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF
THE COAST. GUSTS FROM THE SSE DIRECTION OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. LOWS SUN NIGHT SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 50S...WITH
READINGS LIKELY TO RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG FORCING AND
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN A ~6HR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN SUN NIGHT...WITH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS
AVERAGING 1.00-1.25IN.

THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NNE OF THE REGION BY 12Z MON...WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING TOWARD THE FAR WRN COUNTIES BY 00Z TUE. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE MON MORNING...WITH A GUSTY SW WIND
DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S (SEE THE
THE CLIMO SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS). 22/12Z NAM LINGERS MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO 20-30% DUE TO THE APPROACH
OF THE COLD FRONT AND SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT AND TUE. PARTIAL
CLEARING IS POSSIBLE INLAND...WITH CLOUDS LINGERING NEAR THE COAST
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER TUE. HIGHS TUE SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO LOW 60S SE...AFTER MORNING LOWS FROM THE
MID 40S NW...TO LOW/MID 50S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. MODELS NOW SHOWING SRN STREAM LO PRES OVR THE ERN GULF TUE
EVENG...WILL TRACK NNE AND JUST OFF THE EAST CST TUE NGT INTO WED
NGT. THUS...HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR RAIN TO 40%-60% (HIGHEST IN THE
ERN HALF OF THE REGION) DURING WED. PCPN/MOIST THEN MOVES E OF THE
AREA AND OFF THE CST LATER WED EVENG/WED NGT...WITH POPS DIMINISHING
FM W TO E. A MAINLY DRY FRONT SWINGS ACRS THE AREA THU AFTN INTO
EARLY FRI MORNG. HI PRES WILL THEN BLD INTO AND OVR THE REGION FRI
THRU SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S WED...IN THE UPR 40S TO LWR
50S THU...IN THE MID TO UPR 40S FRI...AND RANGE THRU THE 40S SAT.
MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S WED MORNG...IN THE UPR
20S TO MID 30S THU AND FRI MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S
SAT MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE VA/NC BOARDER WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST DURING THE EVENING. THIS WILL CONTINUE A SOUTHERLY WIND
DIRECTION WHILE INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.

A MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL HELP FORM A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE SE US AS THE MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVES NE OUT OF THE GOMEX
ON SUN. THIS WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE MOISTURE AS A WARM FRONT
SURGES THROUGH THE AREA SUN NIGHT. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS(POSSIBLY
LOWER) DUE TO LOWERED CEILINGS AND REDUCED VIS DUE TO RAIN.
ALSO...WIND GUST TO 35KT MAY BE POSSIBLE MON MORNING AS THE SYSTEM
DEEPENS OVER THE AREA. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE OVER NE NC/SE VA.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE HOISTED SCA`S FOR THE ENTIRE WTRS STARTING SUN EVENG...AND
LASTING THRU MON AFTN/EVENG OR MON NGT FOR THE CHES BAY/CURRITUCK
SND AND THE CSTL WTRS. HI PRES SLIDES OUT TO SEA DURING SUN...WITH
LO PRES MOVNG FM THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY NNE THRU THE GRT LKS AND
INTO ERN CANADA SUN EVENG INTO MON NGT. SE OR S WINDS WILL
INCREASE ACRS THE WTRS/REGION LATE SUN INTO MON MORNG IN ADVANCE
OF A COLD FRONT. SE OR S WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO/ARND
30 KNOTS EXPECTED SUN EVENG INTO MON EVENG...WITH WAVES BLDNG TO 3
TO 5 FT IN THE CHES BAY...AND SEAS BLDNG TO 5 TO 8 FEET ON THE
CSTL WTRS. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WTRS MON NGT...WITH CALMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE INTO TUE NGT. STRONG NE OR N WINDS THEN
EXPECTED WED INTO WED NGT...AS LO PRES TRACKS NWRD JUST OFF THE
EAST CST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED MONDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

RIC 76 1979
ORF 78 1983
SBY 78 1931
ECG 77 1983

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ633-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...TMG
CLIMATE...AKQ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 222157
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
457 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND
MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY INDICATES A POTENT TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS
TX...WITH A BROAD RIDGE DOWNSTREAM COVERING THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A ~1032MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR
THE NC OUTER BANKS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS GENERALLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS WITH ONLY A FEW THIN BANDS OF CIRRUS STREAMING OVERHEAD.
AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HAVE
MODERATED INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S WITH A LIGHT SSW WIND ON THE
NW PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SLIDE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.
MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE
GULF COAST. AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE DOMINATED
BY THE CURRENT COOL/DRY AIRMASS. HENCE TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP
QUICKLY INTO THE 30S THIS EVENING UNDER A CLEAR SKY...EVENTUALLY
REACHING OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S. HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD
THICKEN LATE...AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. HENCE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BECOME STEADY OR EVEN
SLOWLY RISE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE...THICKEN...AND LOWER FROM THE SW SUN
AS GULF COAST MOISTURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFT NE THROUGH
THE SE CONUS...AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT SOME RAIN
SHOULD ARRIVE IN SW PORTIONS LATE IN THE DAY...WITH 60% POPS SW
LATE IN THE DAY...BORDERED BY A 30-50% POP FROM THE NW PIEDMONT
THROUGH NE NC. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW TO LOW 60S
SE.

THE WARM FRONT WITH STRONG VERTICAL MOTION WILL CROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION PRIMARILY FROM SUN EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE (+3 ST DEV PW 03-06Z MON PER
22/15Z SREF) WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT DUE TO A STRONG NEARLY 70KT
LLJ. POPS FOR RAIN DURING THE 12HR PERIOD SUN NIGHT HAVE BEEN
RAISED TO 100%. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
COASTAL NE NC. HOWEVER...0-3KM LAPSE RATES SEEM TO BE A LIMITING
FACTOR THROUGHOUT THE 22/12Z SUITE OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...OFFSETTING
A STRONG AMBIENT WIND FIELD. GIVEN THIS...THE SPC SLIGHT RISK HAS
BEEN SHUNTED S OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND 6HR PRESSURE FALLS OF -7MB TO -10MB PER 22/12Z GFS
WILL RESULT IN BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF
THE COAST. GUSTS FROM THE SSE DIRECTION OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. LOWS SUN NIGHT SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 50S...WITH
READINGS LIKELY TO RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG FORCING AND
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN A ~6HR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN SUN NIGHT...WITH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS
AVERAGING 1.00-1.25IN.

THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NNE OF THE REGION BY 12Z MON...WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING TOWARD THE FAR WRN COUNTIES BY 00Z TUE. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE MON MORNING...WITH A GUSTY SW WIND
DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S (SEE THE
THE CLIMO SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS). 22/12Z NAM LINGERS MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO 20-30% DUE TO THE APPROACH
OF THE COLD FRONT AND SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT AND TUE. PARTIAL
CLEARING IS POSSIBLE INLAND...WITH CLOUDS LINGERING NEAR THE COAST
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER TUE. HIGHS TUE SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO LOW 60S SE...AFTER MORNING LOWS FROM THE
MID 40S NW...TO LOW/MID 50S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. MODELS NOW SHOWING SRN STREAM LO PRES OVR THE ERN GULF TUE
EVENG...WILL TRACK NNE AND JUST OFF THE EAST CST TUE NGT INTO WED
NGT. THUS...HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR RAIN TO 40%-60% (HIGHEST IN THE
ERN HALF OF THE REGION) DURING WED. PCPN/MOIST THEN MOVES E OF THE
AREA AND OFF THE CST LATER WED EVENG/WED NGT...WITH POPS DIMINISHING
FM W TO E. A MAINLY DRY FRONT SWINGS ACRS THE AREA THU AFTN INTO
EARLY FRI MORNG. HI PRES WILL THEN BLD INTO AND OVR THE REGION FRI
THRU SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S WED...IN THE UPR 40S TO LWR
50S THU...IN THE MID TO UPR 40S FRI...AND RANGE THRU THE 40S SAT.
MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S WED MORNG...IN THE UPR
20S TO MID 30S THU AND FRI MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S
SAT MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE VA/NC BOARDER WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST DURING THE EVENING. THIS WILL CONTINUE A SOUTHERLY WIND
DIRECTION WHILE INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.

A MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL HELP FORM A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE SE US AS THE MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVES NE OUT OF THE GOMEX
ON SUN. THIS WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE MOISTURE AS A WARM FRONT
SURGES THROUGH THE AREA SUN NIGHT. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS(POSSIBLY
LOWER) DUE TO LOWERED CEILINGS AND REDUCED VIS DUE TO RAIN.
ALSO...WIND GUST TO 35KT MAY BE POSSIBLE MON MORNING AS THE SYSTEM
DEEPENS OVER THE AREA. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE OVER NE NC/SE VA.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE HOISTED SCA`S FOR THE ENTIRE WTRS STARTING SUN EVENG...AND
LASTING THRU MON AFTN/EVENG OR MON NGT FOR THE CHES BAY/CURRITUCK
SND AND THE CSTL WTRS. HI PRES SLIDES OUT TO SEA DURING SUN...WITH
LO PRES MOVNG FM THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY NNE THRU THE GRT LKS AND
INTO ERN CANADA SUN EVENG INTO MON NGT. SE OR S WINDS WILL
INCREASE ACRS THE WTRS/REGION LATE SUN INTO MON MORNG IN ADVANCE
OF A COLD FRONT. SE OR S WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO/ARND
30 KNOTS EXPECTED SUN EVENG INTO MON EVENG...WITH WAVES BLDNG TO 3
TO 5 FT IN THE CHES BAY...AND SEAS BLDNG TO 5 TO 8 FEET ON THE
CSTL WTRS. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WTRS MON NGT...WITH CALMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE INTO TUE NGT. STRONG NE OR N WINDS THEN
EXPECTED WED INTO WED NGT...AS LO PRES TRACKS NWRD JUST OFF THE
EAST CST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED MONDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

RIC 76 1979
ORF 78 1983
SBY 78 1931
ECG 77 1983

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ633-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...TMG
CLIMATE...AKQ






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 222157
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
457 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND
MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY INDICATES A POTENT TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS
TX...WITH A BROAD RIDGE DOWNSTREAM COVERING THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A ~1032MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR
THE NC OUTER BANKS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS GENERALLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS WITH ONLY A FEW THIN BANDS OF CIRRUS STREAMING OVERHEAD.
AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HAVE
MODERATED INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S WITH A LIGHT SSW WIND ON THE
NW PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SLIDE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.
MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE
GULF COAST. AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE DOMINATED
BY THE CURRENT COOL/DRY AIRMASS. HENCE TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP
QUICKLY INTO THE 30S THIS EVENING UNDER A CLEAR SKY...EVENTUALLY
REACHING OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S. HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD
THICKEN LATE...AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. HENCE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BECOME STEADY OR EVEN
SLOWLY RISE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE...THICKEN...AND LOWER FROM THE SW SUN
AS GULF COAST MOISTURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFT NE THROUGH
THE SE CONUS...AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT SOME RAIN
SHOULD ARRIVE IN SW PORTIONS LATE IN THE DAY...WITH 60% POPS SW
LATE IN THE DAY...BORDERED BY A 30-50% POP FROM THE NW PIEDMONT
THROUGH NE NC. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW TO LOW 60S
SE.

THE WARM FRONT WITH STRONG VERTICAL MOTION WILL CROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION PRIMARILY FROM SUN EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE (+3 ST DEV PW 03-06Z MON PER
22/15Z SREF) WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT DUE TO A STRONG NEARLY 70KT
LLJ. POPS FOR RAIN DURING THE 12HR PERIOD SUN NIGHT HAVE BEEN
RAISED TO 100%. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
COASTAL NE NC. HOWEVER...0-3KM LAPSE RATES SEEM TO BE A LIMITING
FACTOR THROUGHOUT THE 22/12Z SUITE OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...OFFSETTING
A STRONG AMBIENT WIND FIELD. GIVEN THIS...THE SPC SLIGHT RISK HAS
BEEN SHUNTED S OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND 6HR PRESSURE FALLS OF -7MB TO -10MB PER 22/12Z GFS
WILL RESULT IN BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF
THE COAST. GUSTS FROM THE SSE DIRECTION OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. LOWS SUN NIGHT SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 50S...WITH
READINGS LIKELY TO RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG FORCING AND
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN A ~6HR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN SUN NIGHT...WITH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS
AVERAGING 1.00-1.25IN.

THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NNE OF THE REGION BY 12Z MON...WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING TOWARD THE FAR WRN COUNTIES BY 00Z TUE. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE MON MORNING...WITH A GUSTY SW WIND
DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S (SEE THE
THE CLIMO SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS). 22/12Z NAM LINGERS MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO 20-30% DUE TO THE APPROACH
OF THE COLD FRONT AND SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT AND TUE. PARTIAL
CLEARING IS POSSIBLE INLAND...WITH CLOUDS LINGERING NEAR THE COAST
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER TUE. HIGHS TUE SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO LOW 60S SE...AFTER MORNING LOWS FROM THE
MID 40S NW...TO LOW/MID 50S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. MODELS NOW SHOWING SRN STREAM LO PRES OVR THE ERN GULF TUE
EVENG...WILL TRACK NNE AND JUST OFF THE EAST CST TUE NGT INTO WED
NGT. THUS...HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR RAIN TO 40%-60% (HIGHEST IN THE
ERN HALF OF THE REGION) DURING WED. PCPN/MOIST THEN MOVES E OF THE
AREA AND OFF THE CST LATER WED EVENG/WED NGT...WITH POPS DIMINISHING
FM W TO E. A MAINLY DRY FRONT SWINGS ACRS THE AREA THU AFTN INTO
EARLY FRI MORNG. HI PRES WILL THEN BLD INTO AND OVR THE REGION FRI
THRU SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S WED...IN THE UPR 40S TO LWR
50S THU...IN THE MID TO UPR 40S FRI...AND RANGE THRU THE 40S SAT.
MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S WED MORNG...IN THE UPR
20S TO MID 30S THU AND FRI MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S
SAT MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE VA/NC BOARDER WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST DURING THE EVENING. THIS WILL CONTINUE A SOUTHERLY WIND
DIRECTION WHILE INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.

A MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL HELP FORM A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE SE US AS THE MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVES NE OUT OF THE GOMEX
ON SUN. THIS WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE MOISTURE AS A WARM FRONT
SURGES THROUGH THE AREA SUN NIGHT. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS(POSSIBLY
LOWER) DUE TO LOWERED CEILINGS AND REDUCED VIS DUE TO RAIN.
ALSO...WIND GUST TO 35KT MAY BE POSSIBLE MON MORNING AS THE SYSTEM
DEEPENS OVER THE AREA. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE OVER NE NC/SE VA.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE HOISTED SCA`S FOR THE ENTIRE WTRS STARTING SUN EVENG...AND
LASTING THRU MON AFTN/EVENG OR MON NGT FOR THE CHES BAY/CURRITUCK
SND AND THE CSTL WTRS. HI PRES SLIDES OUT TO SEA DURING SUN...WITH
LO PRES MOVNG FM THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY NNE THRU THE GRT LKS AND
INTO ERN CANADA SUN EVENG INTO MON NGT. SE OR S WINDS WILL
INCREASE ACRS THE WTRS/REGION LATE SUN INTO MON MORNG IN ADVANCE
OF A COLD FRONT. SE OR S WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO/ARND
30 KNOTS EXPECTED SUN EVENG INTO MON EVENG...WITH WAVES BLDNG TO 3
TO 5 FT IN THE CHES BAY...AND SEAS BLDNG TO 5 TO 8 FEET ON THE
CSTL WTRS. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WTRS MON NGT...WITH CALMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE INTO TUE NGT. STRONG NE OR N WINDS THEN
EXPECTED WED INTO WED NGT...AS LO PRES TRACKS NWRD JUST OFF THE
EAST CST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED MONDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

RIC 76 1979
ORF 78 1983
SBY 78 1931
ECG 77 1983

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ633-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...TMG
CLIMATE...AKQ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 222049
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
349 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND
MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY INDICATES A POTENT TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS
TX...WITH A BROAD RIDGE DOWNSTREAM COVERING THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A ~1032MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR
THE NC OUTER BANKS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS GENERALLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS WITH ONLY A FEW THIN BANDS OF CIRRUS STREAMING OVERHEAD.
AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HAVE
MODERATED INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S WITH A LIGHT SSW WIND ON THE
NW PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SLIDE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.
MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE
GULF COAST. AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE DOMINATED
BY THE CURRENT COOL/DRY AIRMASS. HENCE TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP
QUICKLY INTO THE 30S THIS EVENING UNDER A CLEAR SKY...EVENTUALLY
REACHING OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S. HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD
THICKEN LATE...AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. HENCE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BECOME STEADY OR EVEN
SLOWLY RISE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE...THICKEN...AND LOWER FROM THE SW SUN
AS GULF COAST MOISTURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFT NE THROUGH
THE SE CONUS...AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT SOME RAIN
SHOULD ARRIVE IN SW PORTIONS LATE IN THE DAY...WITH 60% POPS SW
LATE IN THE DAY...BORDERED BY A 30-50% POP FROM THE NW PIEDMONT
THROUGH NE NC. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW TO LOW 60S
SE.

THE WARM FRONT WITH STRONG VERTICAL MOTION WILL CROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION PRIMARILY FROM SUN EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE (+3 ST DEV PW 03-06Z MON PER
22/15Z SREF) WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT DUE TO A STRONG NEARLY 70KT
LLJ. POPS FOR RAIN DURING THE 12HR PERIOD SUN NIGHT HAVE BEEN
RAISED TO 100%. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
COASTAL NE NC. HOWEVER...0-3KM LAPSE RATES SEEM TO BE A LIMITING
FACTOR THROUGHOUT THE 22/12Z SUITE OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...OFFSETTING
A STRONG AMBIENT WIND FIELD. GIVEN THIS...THE SPC SLIGHT RISK HAS
BEEN SHUNTED S OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND 6HR PRESSURE FALLS OF -7MB TO -10MB PER 22/12Z GFS
WILL RESULT IN BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF
THE COAST. GUSTS FROM THE SSE DIRECTION OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. LOWS SUN NIGHT SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 50S...WITH
READINGS LIKELY TO RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG FORCING AND
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN A ~6HR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN SUN NIGHT...WITH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS
AVERAGING 1.00-1.25IN.

THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NNE OF THE REGION BY 12Z MON...WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING TOWARD THE FAR WRN COUNTIES BY 00Z TUE. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE MON MORNING...WITH A GUSTY SW WIND
DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S (SEE THE
THE CLIMO SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS). 22/12Z NAM LINGERS MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO 20-30% DUE TO THE APPROACH
OF THE COLD FRONT AND SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT AND TUE. PARTIAL
CLEARING IS POSSIBLE INLAND...WITH CLOUDS LINGERING NEAR THE COAST
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER TUE. HIGHS TUE SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO LOW 60S SE...AFTER MORNING LOWS FROM THE
MID 40S NW...TO LOW/MID 50S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST BY 12Z TUE. BNDRY THEN
STALLS OVR THE GULF STREAM TUE & WED IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF
S/W`S PROGGED TO DVLP THEN MOVE NE ALONG IT. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRS
(OF PACIFIC ORIGIN) OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION BUILDS S&E THRU
THE MID WEEK PRD. UPR LVL LOW AND TRAILING CDFRNT PROGGED TO DIVE
SE FROM THE GT LAKES THU WITH HIGH PRS BUILDING INTO THE ARA FRI.

GRIDS WILL INDICATE SLGHT CHC SHWRS WITH FROPA MONDAY NIGHT. COOLER
AS CAA SET IN BEHIND THE FRNT. LOWS M-U40S NWRN HALF 50-55 SERN
HALF. TUE THRU WED FCST DEPENDS ON HOW FAR N&W MSTR GETS FROM THE
DVLPNG LOW OFF THE SERN COAST. GFS HAS A TRACK A BIT FRTHR EAST
KEEPING THE PCPN CONFINED TO SERN CSTL AREAS BY LATE TUE...AND GNRLY
E OF I95 WED. ECMWF SLOWER WITH A DRY TUE...PCPN MOVG ACROSS SERN
CSTL AREAS TUE NIGHT THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA WED BEFORE
PULLING OUT TO SEAS WED NIGHT.

TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF WITH THE COASTAL LOW TUE & WED...BUT THNK
IT IS OVERDONE WRT THE DEEPENING OF THE LOW OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST
TURKEY DAY. WILL INDICATE 20-30 POP ACROSS SERN CSTL AREAS TUE. DRY
ELSEWHERE. HIGHS M50S-L60S. A GENERAL RAIN OVRSPRDS THE FA SE-NW
TUES NIGHT AND WED...THEN ENDS WED EVE AS THE LOW PULLS FRTHR
OFFSHORE. PCPN ALL LIQUID WITH THIS EVENT. LOWS TUE NIGHT M30S-M40S.
HIGHS WED M40S-L50S. PCPN ENDS WED EVE BEFORE THE COLD AIR ARRIVES.
LOWS AFTER THE RAIN ENDS FALL INTO THE U20S-L30S W OF THE
BAY...M-U30S SERN CSTL AREAS.

CLIPPER TYPE S/W DIVES SE THU. ENUF MSTR SEEN WITH THIS FTR FOR AT
LEAST SLGHT CHC DIURNAL SHWRS (PSBLY MIXED WITH IP???) THANKSGIVING
DAY. HIGHS 45-50. DRYING OUT THURS NIGHT AND FRI. LOWS U20S-M30S
XCPT 35-40 SERN CSTL AREAS. HIGHS FRI M-U40S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE VA/NC BOARDER WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST DURING THE EVENING. THIS WILL CONTINUE A SOUTHERLY WIND
DIRECTION WHILE INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.

A MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL HELP FORM A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE SE US AS THE MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVES NE OUT OF THE GOMEX
ON SUN. THIS WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE MOISTURE AS A WARM FRONT
SURGES THROUGH THE AREA SUN NIGHT. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS(POSSIBLY
LOWER) DUE TO LOWERED CEILINGS AND REDUCED VIS DUE TO RAIN.
ALSO...WIND GUST TO 35KT MAY BE POSSIBLE MON MORNING AS THE SYSTEM
DEEPENS OVER THE AREA. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE OVER NE NC/SE VA.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA OVR SRN CSTL WTRS HAS EXPIRED AS SEAS DROPPED BLO 5 FT. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNG...EXPECT 2-3 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS WITH
LGT WINDS AS STRONG SFC HI PRES CENTERS OVR THE WTRS. THE HI
SLIDES FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS AFTN...WITH WINDS BCMG SLY AT 10-15 KT.
NEXT LO PRES SYSTM PUSHES NE TOWARDS THE OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
SUN/SUN NGT...WITH S/SE FLOW RAMPING UP OVR THE LOCAL WTRS AS THE
PRES GRADIENT INCREASES. SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUN NGT INTO MON
IN RESPONSE TO THIS...AND MAY CONTINUE UNTIL MON NGT WHEN THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRNT CROSSES THE AREA. GUSTS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE
OVR THE OCEAN AS WELL. WITH THIS BEING 4TH PERIOD WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW. WAVES OVR THE BAY WILL REACH 3-4 FT WITH SEAS
OVR CSTL WTRS UP TO 6-8 FT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED MONDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

RIC 76 1979
ORF 78 1983
SBY 78 1931
ECG 77 1983

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 222049
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
349 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND
MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY INDICATES A POTENT TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS
TX...WITH A BROAD RIDGE DOWNSTREAM COVERING THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A ~1032MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR
THE NC OUTER BANKS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS GENERALLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS WITH ONLY A FEW THIN BANDS OF CIRRUS STREAMING OVERHEAD.
AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HAVE
MODERATED INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S WITH A LIGHT SSW WIND ON THE
NW PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SLIDE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.
MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE
GULF COAST. AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE DOMINATED
BY THE CURRENT COOL/DRY AIRMASS. HENCE TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP
QUICKLY INTO THE 30S THIS EVENING UNDER A CLEAR SKY...EVENTUALLY
REACHING OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S. HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD
THICKEN LATE...AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. HENCE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BECOME STEADY OR EVEN
SLOWLY RISE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE...THICKEN...AND LOWER FROM THE SW SUN
AS GULF COAST MOISTURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFT NE THROUGH
THE SE CONUS...AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT SOME RAIN
SHOULD ARRIVE IN SW PORTIONS LATE IN THE DAY...WITH 60% POPS SW
LATE IN THE DAY...BORDERED BY A 30-50% POP FROM THE NW PIEDMONT
THROUGH NE NC. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW TO LOW 60S
SE.

THE WARM FRONT WITH STRONG VERTICAL MOTION WILL CROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION PRIMARILY FROM SUN EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE (+3 ST DEV PW 03-06Z MON PER
22/15Z SREF) WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT DUE TO A STRONG NEARLY 70KT
LLJ. POPS FOR RAIN DURING THE 12HR PERIOD SUN NIGHT HAVE BEEN
RAISED TO 100%. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
COASTAL NE NC. HOWEVER...0-3KM LAPSE RATES SEEM TO BE A LIMITING
FACTOR THROUGHOUT THE 22/12Z SUITE OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...OFFSETTING
A STRONG AMBIENT WIND FIELD. GIVEN THIS...THE SPC SLIGHT RISK HAS
BEEN SHUNTED S OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND 6HR PRESSURE FALLS OF -7MB TO -10MB PER 22/12Z GFS
WILL RESULT IN BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF
THE COAST. GUSTS FROM THE SSE DIRECTION OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. LOWS SUN NIGHT SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 50S...WITH
READINGS LIKELY TO RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG FORCING AND
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN A ~6HR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN SUN NIGHT...WITH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS
AVERAGING 1.00-1.25IN.

THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NNE OF THE REGION BY 12Z MON...WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING TOWARD THE FAR WRN COUNTIES BY 00Z TUE. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE MON MORNING...WITH A GUSTY SW WIND
DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S (SEE THE
THE CLIMO SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS). 22/12Z NAM LINGERS MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO 20-30% DUE TO THE APPROACH
OF THE COLD FRONT AND SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT AND TUE. PARTIAL
CLEARING IS POSSIBLE INLAND...WITH CLOUDS LINGERING NEAR THE COAST
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER TUE. HIGHS TUE SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO LOW 60S SE...AFTER MORNING LOWS FROM THE
MID 40S NW...TO LOW/MID 50S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST BY 12Z TUE. BNDRY THEN
STALLS OVR THE GULF STREAM TUE & WED IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF
S/W`S PROGGED TO DVLP THEN MOVE NE ALONG IT. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRS
(OF PACIFIC ORIGIN) OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION BUILDS S&E THRU
THE MID WEEK PRD. UPR LVL LOW AND TRAILING CDFRNT PROGGED TO DIVE
SE FROM THE GT LAKES THU WITH HIGH PRS BUILDING INTO THE ARA FRI.

GRIDS WILL INDICATE SLGHT CHC SHWRS WITH FROPA MONDAY NIGHT. COOLER
AS CAA SET IN BEHIND THE FRNT. LOWS M-U40S NWRN HALF 50-55 SERN
HALF. TUE THRU WED FCST DEPENDS ON HOW FAR N&W MSTR GETS FROM THE
DVLPNG LOW OFF THE SERN COAST. GFS HAS A TRACK A BIT FRTHR EAST
KEEPING THE PCPN CONFINED TO SERN CSTL AREAS BY LATE TUE...AND GNRLY
E OF I95 WED. ECMWF SLOWER WITH A DRY TUE...PCPN MOVG ACROSS SERN
CSTL AREAS TUE NIGHT THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA WED BEFORE
PULLING OUT TO SEAS WED NIGHT.

TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF WITH THE COASTAL LOW TUE & WED...BUT THNK
IT IS OVERDONE WRT THE DEEPENING OF THE LOW OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST
TURKEY DAY. WILL INDICATE 20-30 POP ACROSS SERN CSTL AREAS TUE. DRY
ELSEWHERE. HIGHS M50S-L60S. A GENERAL RAIN OVRSPRDS THE FA SE-NW
TUES NIGHT AND WED...THEN ENDS WED EVE AS THE LOW PULLS FRTHR
OFFSHORE. PCPN ALL LIQUID WITH THIS EVENT. LOWS TUE NIGHT M30S-M40S.
HIGHS WED M40S-L50S. PCPN ENDS WED EVE BEFORE THE COLD AIR ARRIVES.
LOWS AFTER THE RAIN ENDS FALL INTO THE U20S-L30S W OF THE
BAY...M-U30S SERN CSTL AREAS.

CLIPPER TYPE S/W DIVES SE THU. ENUF MSTR SEEN WITH THIS FTR FOR AT
LEAST SLGHT CHC DIURNAL SHWRS (PSBLY MIXED WITH IP???) THANKSGIVING
DAY. HIGHS 45-50. DRYING OUT THURS NIGHT AND FRI. LOWS U20S-M30S
XCPT 35-40 SERN CSTL AREAS. HIGHS FRI M-U40S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE VA/NC BOARDER WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST DURING THE EVENING. THIS WILL CONTINUE A SOUTHERLY WIND
DIRECTION WHILE INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.

A MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL HELP FORM A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE SE US AS THE MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVES NE OUT OF THE GOMEX
ON SUN. THIS WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE MOISTURE AS A WARM FRONT
SURGES THROUGH THE AREA SUN NIGHT. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS(POSSIBLY
LOWER) DUE TO LOWERED CEILINGS AND REDUCED VIS DUE TO RAIN.
ALSO...WIND GUST TO 35KT MAY BE POSSIBLE MON MORNING AS THE SYSTEM
DEEPENS OVER THE AREA. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE OVER NE NC/SE VA.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA OVR SRN CSTL WTRS HAS EXPIRED AS SEAS DROPPED BLO 5 FT. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNG...EXPECT 2-3 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS WITH
LGT WINDS AS STRONG SFC HI PRES CENTERS OVR THE WTRS. THE HI
SLIDES FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS AFTN...WITH WINDS BCMG SLY AT 10-15 KT.
NEXT LO PRES SYSTM PUSHES NE TOWARDS THE OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
SUN/SUN NGT...WITH S/SE FLOW RAMPING UP OVR THE LOCAL WTRS AS THE
PRES GRADIENT INCREASES. SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUN NGT INTO MON
IN RESPONSE TO THIS...AND MAY CONTINUE UNTIL MON NGT WHEN THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRNT CROSSES THE AREA. GUSTS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE
OVR THE OCEAN AS WELL. WITH THIS BEING 4TH PERIOD WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW. WAVES OVR THE BAY WILL REACH 3-4 FT WITH SEAS
OVR CSTL WTRS UP TO 6-8 FT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED MONDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

RIC 76 1979
ORF 78 1983
SBY 78 1931
ECG 77 1983

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 222049
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
349 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND
MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY INDICATES A POTENT TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS
TX...WITH A BROAD RIDGE DOWNSTREAM COVERING THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A ~1032MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR
THE NC OUTER BANKS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS GENERALLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS WITH ONLY A FEW THIN BANDS OF CIRRUS STREAMING OVERHEAD.
AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HAVE
MODERATED INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S WITH A LIGHT SSW WIND ON THE
NW PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SLIDE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.
MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE
GULF COAST. AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE DOMINATED
BY THE CURRENT COOL/DRY AIRMASS. HENCE TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP
QUICKLY INTO THE 30S THIS EVENING UNDER A CLEAR SKY...EVENTUALLY
REACHING OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S. HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD
THICKEN LATE...AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. HENCE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BECOME STEADY OR EVEN
SLOWLY RISE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE...THICKEN...AND LOWER FROM THE SW SUN
AS GULF COAST MOISTURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFT NE THROUGH
THE SE CONUS...AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT SOME RAIN
SHOULD ARRIVE IN SW PORTIONS LATE IN THE DAY...WITH 60% POPS SW
LATE IN THE DAY...BORDERED BY A 30-50% POP FROM THE NW PIEDMONT
THROUGH NE NC. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW TO LOW 60S
SE.

THE WARM FRONT WITH STRONG VERTICAL MOTION WILL CROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION PRIMARILY FROM SUN EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE (+3 ST DEV PW 03-06Z MON PER
22/15Z SREF) WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT DUE TO A STRONG NEARLY 70KT
LLJ. POPS FOR RAIN DURING THE 12HR PERIOD SUN NIGHT HAVE BEEN
RAISED TO 100%. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
COASTAL NE NC. HOWEVER...0-3KM LAPSE RATES SEEM TO BE A LIMITING
FACTOR THROUGHOUT THE 22/12Z SUITE OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...OFFSETTING
A STRONG AMBIENT WIND FIELD. GIVEN THIS...THE SPC SLIGHT RISK HAS
BEEN SHUNTED S OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND 6HR PRESSURE FALLS OF -7MB TO -10MB PER 22/12Z GFS
WILL RESULT IN BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF
THE COAST. GUSTS FROM THE SSE DIRECTION OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. LOWS SUN NIGHT SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 50S...WITH
READINGS LIKELY TO RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG FORCING AND
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN A ~6HR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN SUN NIGHT...WITH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS
AVERAGING 1.00-1.25IN.

THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NNE OF THE REGION BY 12Z MON...WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING TOWARD THE FAR WRN COUNTIES BY 00Z TUE. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE MON MORNING...WITH A GUSTY SW WIND
DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S (SEE THE
THE CLIMO SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS). 22/12Z NAM LINGERS MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO 20-30% DUE TO THE APPROACH
OF THE COLD FRONT AND SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT AND TUE. PARTIAL
CLEARING IS POSSIBLE INLAND...WITH CLOUDS LINGERING NEAR THE COAST
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER TUE. HIGHS TUE SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO LOW 60S SE...AFTER MORNING LOWS FROM THE
MID 40S NW...TO LOW/MID 50S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST BY 12Z TUE. BNDRY THEN
STALLS OVR THE GULF STREAM TUE & WED IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF
S/W`S PROGGED TO DVLP THEN MOVE NE ALONG IT. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRS
(OF PACIFIC ORIGIN) OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION BUILDS S&E THRU
THE MID WEEK PRD. UPR LVL LOW AND TRAILING CDFRNT PROGGED TO DIVE
SE FROM THE GT LAKES THU WITH HIGH PRS BUILDING INTO THE ARA FRI.

GRIDS WILL INDICATE SLGHT CHC SHWRS WITH FROPA MONDAY NIGHT. COOLER
AS CAA SET IN BEHIND THE FRNT. LOWS M-U40S NWRN HALF 50-55 SERN
HALF. TUE THRU WED FCST DEPENDS ON HOW FAR N&W MSTR GETS FROM THE
DVLPNG LOW OFF THE SERN COAST. GFS HAS A TRACK A BIT FRTHR EAST
KEEPING THE PCPN CONFINED TO SERN CSTL AREAS BY LATE TUE...AND GNRLY
E OF I95 WED. ECMWF SLOWER WITH A DRY TUE...PCPN MOVG ACROSS SERN
CSTL AREAS TUE NIGHT THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA WED BEFORE
PULLING OUT TO SEAS WED NIGHT.

TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF WITH THE COASTAL LOW TUE & WED...BUT THNK
IT IS OVERDONE WRT THE DEEPENING OF THE LOW OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST
TURKEY DAY. WILL INDICATE 20-30 POP ACROSS SERN CSTL AREAS TUE. DRY
ELSEWHERE. HIGHS M50S-L60S. A GENERAL RAIN OVRSPRDS THE FA SE-NW
TUES NIGHT AND WED...THEN ENDS WED EVE AS THE LOW PULLS FRTHR
OFFSHORE. PCPN ALL LIQUID WITH THIS EVENT. LOWS TUE NIGHT M30S-M40S.
HIGHS WED M40S-L50S. PCPN ENDS WED EVE BEFORE THE COLD AIR ARRIVES.
LOWS AFTER THE RAIN ENDS FALL INTO THE U20S-L30S W OF THE
BAY...M-U30S SERN CSTL AREAS.

CLIPPER TYPE S/W DIVES SE THU. ENUF MSTR SEEN WITH THIS FTR FOR AT
LEAST SLGHT CHC DIURNAL SHWRS (PSBLY MIXED WITH IP???) THANKSGIVING
DAY. HIGHS 45-50. DRYING OUT THURS NIGHT AND FRI. LOWS U20S-M30S
XCPT 35-40 SERN CSTL AREAS. HIGHS FRI M-U40S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE VA/NC BOARDER WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST DURING THE EVENING. THIS WILL CONTINUE A SOUTHERLY WIND
DIRECTION WHILE INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.

A MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL HELP FORM A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE SE US AS THE MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVES NE OUT OF THE GOMEX
ON SUN. THIS WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE MOISTURE AS A WARM FRONT
SURGES THROUGH THE AREA SUN NIGHT. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS(POSSIBLY
LOWER) DUE TO LOWERED CEILINGS AND REDUCED VIS DUE TO RAIN.
ALSO...WIND GUST TO 35KT MAY BE POSSIBLE MON MORNING AS THE SYSTEM
DEEPENS OVER THE AREA. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE OVER NE NC/SE VA.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA OVR SRN CSTL WTRS HAS EXPIRED AS SEAS DROPPED BLO 5 FT. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNG...EXPECT 2-3 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS WITH
LGT WINDS AS STRONG SFC HI PRES CENTERS OVR THE WTRS. THE HI
SLIDES FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS AFTN...WITH WINDS BCMG SLY AT 10-15 KT.
NEXT LO PRES SYSTM PUSHES NE TOWARDS THE OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
SUN/SUN NGT...WITH S/SE FLOW RAMPING UP OVR THE LOCAL WTRS AS THE
PRES GRADIENT INCREASES. SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUN NGT INTO MON
IN RESPONSE TO THIS...AND MAY CONTINUE UNTIL MON NGT WHEN THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRNT CROSSES THE AREA. GUSTS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE
OVR THE OCEAN AS WELL. WITH THIS BEING 4TH PERIOD WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW. WAVES OVR THE BAY WILL REACH 3-4 FT WITH SEAS
OVR CSTL WTRS UP TO 6-8 FT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED MONDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

RIC 76 1979
ORF 78 1983
SBY 78 1931
ECG 77 1983

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 222049
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
349 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND
MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY INDICATES A POTENT TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS
TX...WITH A BROAD RIDGE DOWNSTREAM COVERING THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A ~1032MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR
THE NC OUTER BANKS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS GENERALLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS WITH ONLY A FEW THIN BANDS OF CIRRUS STREAMING OVERHEAD.
AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HAVE
MODERATED INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S WITH A LIGHT SSW WIND ON THE
NW PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SLIDE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.
MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE
GULF COAST. AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE DOMINATED
BY THE CURRENT COOL/DRY AIRMASS. HENCE TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP
QUICKLY INTO THE 30S THIS EVENING UNDER A CLEAR SKY...EVENTUALLY
REACHING OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S. HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD
THICKEN LATE...AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. HENCE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BECOME STEADY OR EVEN
SLOWLY RISE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE...THICKEN...AND LOWER FROM THE SW SUN
AS GULF COAST MOISTURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFT NE THROUGH
THE SE CONUS...AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT SOME RAIN
SHOULD ARRIVE IN SW PORTIONS LATE IN THE DAY...WITH 60% POPS SW
LATE IN THE DAY...BORDERED BY A 30-50% POP FROM THE NW PIEDMONT
THROUGH NE NC. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW TO LOW 60S
SE.

THE WARM FRONT WITH STRONG VERTICAL MOTION WILL CROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION PRIMARILY FROM SUN EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE (+3 ST DEV PW 03-06Z MON PER
22/15Z SREF) WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT DUE TO A STRONG NEARLY 70KT
LLJ. POPS FOR RAIN DURING THE 12HR PERIOD SUN NIGHT HAVE BEEN
RAISED TO 100%. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
COASTAL NE NC. HOWEVER...0-3KM LAPSE RATES SEEM TO BE A LIMITING
FACTOR THROUGHOUT THE 22/12Z SUITE OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...OFFSETTING
A STRONG AMBIENT WIND FIELD. GIVEN THIS...THE SPC SLIGHT RISK HAS
BEEN SHUNTED S OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND 6HR PRESSURE FALLS OF -7MB TO -10MB PER 22/12Z GFS
WILL RESULT IN BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF
THE COAST. GUSTS FROM THE SSE DIRECTION OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. LOWS SUN NIGHT SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 50S...WITH
READINGS LIKELY TO RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG FORCING AND
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN A ~6HR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN SUN NIGHT...WITH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS
AVERAGING 1.00-1.25IN.

THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NNE OF THE REGION BY 12Z MON...WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING TOWARD THE FAR WRN COUNTIES BY 00Z TUE. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE MON MORNING...WITH A GUSTY SW WIND
DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S (SEE THE
THE CLIMO SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS). 22/12Z NAM LINGERS MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO 20-30% DUE TO THE APPROACH
OF THE COLD FRONT AND SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT AND TUE. PARTIAL
CLEARING IS POSSIBLE INLAND...WITH CLOUDS LINGERING NEAR THE COAST
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER TUE. HIGHS TUE SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO LOW 60S SE...AFTER MORNING LOWS FROM THE
MID 40S NW...TO LOW/MID 50S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST BY 12Z TUE. BNDRY THEN
STALLS OVR THE GULF STREAM TUE & WED IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF
S/W`S PROGGED TO DVLP THEN MOVE NE ALONG IT. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRS
(OF PACIFIC ORIGIN) OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION BUILDS S&E THRU
THE MID WEEK PRD. UPR LVL LOW AND TRAILING CDFRNT PROGGED TO DIVE
SE FROM THE GT LAKES THU WITH HIGH PRS BUILDING INTO THE ARA FRI.

GRIDS WILL INDICATE SLGHT CHC SHWRS WITH FROPA MONDAY NIGHT. COOLER
AS CAA SET IN BEHIND THE FRNT. LOWS M-U40S NWRN HALF 50-55 SERN
HALF. TUE THRU WED FCST DEPENDS ON HOW FAR N&W MSTR GETS FROM THE
DVLPNG LOW OFF THE SERN COAST. GFS HAS A TRACK A BIT FRTHR EAST
KEEPING THE PCPN CONFINED TO SERN CSTL AREAS BY LATE TUE...AND GNRLY
E OF I95 WED. ECMWF SLOWER WITH A DRY TUE...PCPN MOVG ACROSS SERN
CSTL AREAS TUE NIGHT THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA WED BEFORE
PULLING OUT TO SEAS WED NIGHT.

TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF WITH THE COASTAL LOW TUE & WED...BUT THNK
IT IS OVERDONE WRT THE DEEPENING OF THE LOW OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST
TURKEY DAY. WILL INDICATE 20-30 POP ACROSS SERN CSTL AREAS TUE. DRY
ELSEWHERE. HIGHS M50S-L60S. A GENERAL RAIN OVRSPRDS THE FA SE-NW
TUES NIGHT AND WED...THEN ENDS WED EVE AS THE LOW PULLS FRTHR
OFFSHORE. PCPN ALL LIQUID WITH THIS EVENT. LOWS TUE NIGHT M30S-M40S.
HIGHS WED M40S-L50S. PCPN ENDS WED EVE BEFORE THE COLD AIR ARRIVES.
LOWS AFTER THE RAIN ENDS FALL INTO THE U20S-L30S W OF THE
BAY...M-U30S SERN CSTL AREAS.

CLIPPER TYPE S/W DIVES SE THU. ENUF MSTR SEEN WITH THIS FTR FOR AT
LEAST SLGHT CHC DIURNAL SHWRS (PSBLY MIXED WITH IP???) THANKSGIVING
DAY. HIGHS 45-50. DRYING OUT THURS NIGHT AND FRI. LOWS U20S-M30S
XCPT 35-40 SERN CSTL AREAS. HIGHS FRI M-U40S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE VA/NC BOARDER WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST DURING THE EVENING. THIS WILL CONTINUE A SOUTHERLY WIND
DIRECTION WHILE INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.

A MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL HELP FORM A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE SE US AS THE MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVES NE OUT OF THE GOMEX
ON SUN. THIS WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE MOISTURE AS A WARM FRONT
SURGES THROUGH THE AREA SUN NIGHT. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS(POSSIBLY
LOWER) DUE TO LOWERED CEILINGS AND REDUCED VIS DUE TO RAIN.
ALSO...WIND GUST TO 35KT MAY BE POSSIBLE MON MORNING AS THE SYSTEM
DEEPENS OVER THE AREA. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE OVER NE NC/SE VA.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA OVR SRN CSTL WTRS HAS EXPIRED AS SEAS DROPPED BLO 5 FT. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNG...EXPECT 2-3 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS WITH
LGT WINDS AS STRONG SFC HI PRES CENTERS OVR THE WTRS. THE HI
SLIDES FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS AFTN...WITH WINDS BCMG SLY AT 10-15 KT.
NEXT LO PRES SYSTM PUSHES NE TOWARDS THE OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
SUN/SUN NGT...WITH S/SE FLOW RAMPING UP OVR THE LOCAL WTRS AS THE
PRES GRADIENT INCREASES. SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUN NGT INTO MON
IN RESPONSE TO THIS...AND MAY CONTINUE UNTIL MON NGT WHEN THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRNT CROSSES THE AREA. GUSTS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE
OVR THE OCEAN AS WELL. WITH THIS BEING 4TH PERIOD WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW. WAVES OVR THE BAY WILL REACH 3-4 FT WITH SEAS
OVR CSTL WTRS UP TO 6-8 FT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED MONDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

RIC 76 1979
ORF 78 1983
SBY 78 1931
ECG 77 1983

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KRNK 222037
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
337 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THEN...A STORM SYSTEM MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND CENTRAL MID
ATLANTIC REGION...BRINGING WET AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
TUESDAY...RETURNING TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REST OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
SLIDE EAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
TONIGHT AS DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD
OF APPROACHING WARM FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT WILL INCREASE IN THE WEST SUNDAY MORNING. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S IN THE COLDER
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 30S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. IN
ADVANCE OF A BROAD TROF WILL CURVES OUT IN THE CENTRAL U.S. SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...LEADING SHORTWAVE WILL TAKE ON A STRONG NEGATIVE TILT
AND ROTATE OUT OF THE ARKLATEX REGION TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD OVERRUNNING RAIN. SHAPED TIMING AND POPS
FOR RAIN TOWARDS A BLEND OF GFS...NAM AND HIRESW-ARW WITH MOISTURE
SPREADING QUICKLY UP THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE WITH THE ISENTROPIC
LIFT.

WINDS ARE ANOTHER CONCERN WITH A 70-80KT LLJ TRAVERSES THE AREA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE WARM FRONT/UPPER TROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH WINDS NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND
SMYTH/TAZEWELL/MERCER REGION WITH THE STRONG LLJ. SOME MODERATE
RAIN MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS WITH
UPSLOPE COMPONENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 50S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EST SATURDAY...

BROAD SOUTHWEST 500 MB FLOW ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WELL DEFINED
VORTICITY MAXIMUM TRACK FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY MORNING.

STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND IMPRESSIVE UPSLOPE WINDS SUNDAY
EVENING WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ON THE EAST
SLOPES AND FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE RIDGE. PLUS THE SOUTHEAST WIND WILL
BE ADVECTING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES UP THE
RIDGES. AXIS OF CONVERGENCE CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA BY 06Z/1AM
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SHARP DRY SLOT IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING.

IN-SITU WEDGE ERODES ONCE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS WITH STRONG WARM
AIR ADVECTION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. BEHIND THE RAIN ON
MONDAY 850 MB TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE +10 TO +12
RANGE. BUT BY THE END OF THE DAY THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED
EAST THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS BRING THE 850 MB FRONT THROUGH DURING
THE EVENING. EXPECTING A NON DIURNAL RISE IN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
NIGHT THEN ABOVE NORMAL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

THE BIG PUSH OF COLDER AIR COMES IN TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE COUNTY WARNING AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH LATE TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL RESULT IN EAST WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS WILL BRING DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA AS WELL AS A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. HOW FAR WEST THE PRECIPITATION WILL REACH
WAS STILL QUESTIONABLE. IF PRECIPITATION EXTENDS ALL THE WAY TO THE
BLUE RIDGE...TEMPERATURES MAY BE COLD ENOUGH ON THE WESTERN EDGE TO
HAVE SNOW OR A RAIN SNOW MIX. TOO SOON TO TELL IF THERE WILL BE ANY
PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY FALLING...MUCH LESS ANY AMOUNTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EST SATURDAY...

TWO DISTINCT SYSTEMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR BRING SOME PRECIPITATION
TO PARTS OF THE AREA DURING THIS SEGMENT OF THE FORECAST. THE FIRST
ITEM OF INTEREST IS A LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG A
BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT WILL BE POSITIONED ALONG THE COAST DURING THE
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE
STILL INCONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER...AND WITH THEIR OWN PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS REGARDING THE TIMING...TRACK AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS FEATURE. YESTERDAY...THE ECWMF WAS THE ONLY OPERATIONAL
MODEL RUN THAT HINTED AT PRECIPITATION SKIRTING THE EASTERN EXTENT
OF THE FORECAST AREA. TODAY...ITS SOLUTIONS IS MORE ROBUST ON THIS
SCENARIO WITH PRECIPITATION NOW THE WHOLE WAY WEST TO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. TODAY...THE GFS SOLUTION IS ONLY SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST AS
COMPARED TO THE ECWMF FROM YESTERDAY...BUT STILL...HAS ALL BUT OUR
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES WITH AT LEAST 0.01 PRECIP. THE
CANADIAN SOLUTION KEEPS THE SYSTEM FARTHER OFF THE COAST WITH NOT A
DROP OF PRECIPITATION REACHING THE FORECAST AREA. OUR FORECAST FROM
YESTERDAY REFLECTED A MODEL BLEND CONSENSUS THAT WAS MORE IN LINE
WITH THE WETTER ECWMF SOLUTION. GIVEN BOTH THE GFS AND ECWMF ARE
WETTER FOR THE REGION...AND THE MODEL BLEND CONSENSUS IS ALSO WETTER
ACROSS THE REGION...HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT IN THE FORECAST.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO REFLECT 50
PERCENT IN THE EAST...WITH 20 TO 25 PERCENT IN THE WEST. SURFACE AND
LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MAINLY A SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW
FORECAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY...WITH PRIMARILY RAIN
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR ARRIVING ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR MORE LIGHT
SNOW...BUT WITH THE SYSTEM EXITING...MUCH LESS COVERAGE.

OUT NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT ZIPS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION
DURING THE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECWMF SOLUTIONS HAVE CHANGED COMPARED TO THEIR -24 HOUR
COUNTERPARTS. PRIOR...MODEL SOLUTIONS WERE HINTING AT A MORE
PROLONGED CLOSED LOW STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
WITH A MORE PROFOUND SHOT OF COLDER AIR IN ITS WAKE. THE LATEST
SOLUTIONS OFFER A MORE GLANCING BLOW OF ENERGY ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH THE COLDER AIR NOT HAVING AS MUCH CHANCE TO MAKE THE
TURN SOUTH PRIOR TO ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE
OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WHILE THE FORECAST WILL STILL OFFER SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL BE A BIT MILDER THAN WHAT AS OFFERED IN THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1250 PM EST SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. LOW
CLOUDS UPSTREAM ARE FORECAST TO ROTATE AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH TO OUR WEST AND NORTH. SOME AFTERNOON CU MAY BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. MODEL UPPER LEVEL RH FIELDS
CORRELATE WELL WITH CIRRUS SEEN STREAMING IN OUR DIRECTION ON
SATELLITE LOOP. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

LIGHT WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH AND MORE
GUSTY ON SUNDAY. WINDS AT BLF MAY STAY UP A BIT TONIGHT AS THE
INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AND WARM FRONT START TO BE
FELT.

TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD MOISTURE WILL START TO ENCROACH
FROM THE SOUTH. SCT TO BKN MVFR CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY
MORNING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.


EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING...AND RAIN WITH MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
ALSO...STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS LATER ON SUNDAY MAY LEAD TO
LLWS...ESPECIALLY THE BLF AREA. A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR DURING
MONDAY OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A DRY SLOT DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE
EXITING FRONT FROM SUNDAY AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY LOOK TO FEATURE QUITE A BIT OF WIND. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK...EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS
EASTERN WV/FAR SW VA...BUT MOSTLY VFR ELSEWHERE WITH A COLDER NW
FLOW.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 215 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WILL BE OUT
OF SERVICE UNTIL PARTS ARRIVE TO REPLACE THE SENSOR. UNTIL THEN
THE VISIBILITY WILL ONLY BE REPORTED WHEN THE CONTROL TOWER IS
STAFFED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/MBS
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...KK/MBS
EQUIPMENT...RAB



000
FXUS61 KRNK 222037
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
337 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THEN...A STORM SYSTEM MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND CENTRAL MID
ATLANTIC REGION...BRINGING WET AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
TUESDAY...RETURNING TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REST OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
SLIDE EAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
TONIGHT AS DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD
OF APPROACHING WARM FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT WILL INCREASE IN THE WEST SUNDAY MORNING. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S IN THE COLDER
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 30S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. IN
ADVANCE OF A BROAD TROF WILL CURVES OUT IN THE CENTRAL U.S. SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...LEADING SHORTWAVE WILL TAKE ON A STRONG NEGATIVE TILT
AND ROTATE OUT OF THE ARKLATEX REGION TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD OVERRUNNING RAIN. SHAPED TIMING AND POPS
FOR RAIN TOWARDS A BLEND OF GFS...NAM AND HIRESW-ARW WITH MOISTURE
SPREADING QUICKLY UP THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE WITH THE ISENTROPIC
LIFT.

WINDS ARE ANOTHER CONCERN WITH A 70-80KT LLJ TRAVERSES THE AREA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE WARM FRONT/UPPER TROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH WINDS NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND
SMYTH/TAZEWELL/MERCER REGION WITH THE STRONG LLJ. SOME MODERATE
RAIN MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS WITH
UPSLOPE COMPONENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 50S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EST SATURDAY...

BROAD SOUTHWEST 500 MB FLOW ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WELL DEFINED
VORTICITY MAXIMUM TRACK FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY MORNING.

STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND IMPRESSIVE UPSLOPE WINDS SUNDAY
EVENING WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ON THE EAST
SLOPES AND FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE RIDGE. PLUS THE SOUTHEAST WIND WILL
BE ADVECTING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES UP THE
RIDGES. AXIS OF CONVERGENCE CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA BY 06Z/1AM
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SHARP DRY SLOT IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING.

IN-SITU WEDGE ERODES ONCE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS WITH STRONG WARM
AIR ADVECTION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. BEHIND THE RAIN ON
MONDAY 850 MB TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE +10 TO +12
RANGE. BUT BY THE END OF THE DAY THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED
EAST THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS BRING THE 850 MB FRONT THROUGH DURING
THE EVENING. EXPECTING A NON DIURNAL RISE IN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
NIGHT THEN ABOVE NORMAL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

THE BIG PUSH OF COLDER AIR COMES IN TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE COUNTY WARNING AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH LATE TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL RESULT IN EAST WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS WILL BRING DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA AS WELL AS A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. HOW FAR WEST THE PRECIPITATION WILL REACH
WAS STILL QUESTIONABLE. IF PRECIPITATION EXTENDS ALL THE WAY TO THE
BLUE RIDGE...TEMPERATURES MAY BE COLD ENOUGH ON THE WESTERN EDGE TO
HAVE SNOW OR A RAIN SNOW MIX. TOO SOON TO TELL IF THERE WILL BE ANY
PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY FALLING...MUCH LESS ANY AMOUNTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EST SATURDAY...

TWO DISTINCT SYSTEMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR BRING SOME PRECIPITATION
TO PARTS OF THE AREA DURING THIS SEGMENT OF THE FORECAST. THE FIRST
ITEM OF INTEREST IS A LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG A
BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT WILL BE POSITIONED ALONG THE COAST DURING THE
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE
STILL INCONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER...AND WITH THEIR OWN PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS REGARDING THE TIMING...TRACK AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS FEATURE. YESTERDAY...THE ECWMF WAS THE ONLY OPERATIONAL
MODEL RUN THAT HINTED AT PRECIPITATION SKIRTING THE EASTERN EXTENT
OF THE FORECAST AREA. TODAY...ITS SOLUTIONS IS MORE ROBUST ON THIS
SCENARIO WITH PRECIPITATION NOW THE WHOLE WAY WEST TO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. TODAY...THE GFS SOLUTION IS ONLY SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST AS
COMPARED TO THE ECWMF FROM YESTERDAY...BUT STILL...HAS ALL BUT OUR
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES WITH AT LEAST 0.01 PRECIP. THE
CANADIAN SOLUTION KEEPS THE SYSTEM FARTHER OFF THE COAST WITH NOT A
DROP OF PRECIPITATION REACHING THE FORECAST AREA. OUR FORECAST FROM
YESTERDAY REFLECTED A MODEL BLEND CONSENSUS THAT WAS MORE IN LINE
WITH THE WETTER ECWMF SOLUTION. GIVEN BOTH THE GFS AND ECWMF ARE
WETTER FOR THE REGION...AND THE MODEL BLEND CONSENSUS IS ALSO WETTER
ACROSS THE REGION...HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT IN THE FORECAST.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO REFLECT 50
PERCENT IN THE EAST...WITH 20 TO 25 PERCENT IN THE WEST. SURFACE AND
LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MAINLY A SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW
FORECAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY...WITH PRIMARILY RAIN
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR ARRIVING ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR MORE LIGHT
SNOW...BUT WITH THE SYSTEM EXITING...MUCH LESS COVERAGE.

OUT NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT ZIPS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION
DURING THE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECWMF SOLUTIONS HAVE CHANGED COMPARED TO THEIR -24 HOUR
COUNTERPARTS. PRIOR...MODEL SOLUTIONS WERE HINTING AT A MORE
PROLONGED CLOSED LOW STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
WITH A MORE PROFOUND SHOT OF COLDER AIR IN ITS WAKE. THE LATEST
SOLUTIONS OFFER A MORE GLANCING BLOW OF ENERGY ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH THE COLDER AIR NOT HAVING AS MUCH CHANCE TO MAKE THE
TURN SOUTH PRIOR TO ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE
OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WHILE THE FORECAST WILL STILL OFFER SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL BE A BIT MILDER THAN WHAT AS OFFERED IN THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1250 PM EST SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. LOW
CLOUDS UPSTREAM ARE FORECAST TO ROTATE AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH TO OUR WEST AND NORTH. SOME AFTERNOON CU MAY BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. MODEL UPPER LEVEL RH FIELDS
CORRELATE WELL WITH CIRRUS SEEN STREAMING IN OUR DIRECTION ON
SATELLITE LOOP. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

LIGHT WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH AND MORE
GUSTY ON SUNDAY. WINDS AT BLF MAY STAY UP A BIT TONIGHT AS THE
INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AND WARM FRONT START TO BE
FELT.

TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD MOISTURE WILL START TO ENCROACH
FROM THE SOUTH. SCT TO BKN MVFR CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY
MORNING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.


EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING...AND RAIN WITH MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
ALSO...STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS LATER ON SUNDAY MAY LEAD TO
LLWS...ESPECIALLY THE BLF AREA. A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR DURING
MONDAY OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A DRY SLOT DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE
EXITING FRONT FROM SUNDAY AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY LOOK TO FEATURE QUITE A BIT OF WIND. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK...EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS
EASTERN WV/FAR SW VA...BUT MOSTLY VFR ELSEWHERE WITH A COLDER NW
FLOW.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 215 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WILL BE OUT
OF SERVICE UNTIL PARTS ARRIVE TO REPLACE THE SENSOR. UNTIL THEN
THE VISIBILITY WILL ONLY BE REPORTED WHEN THE CONTROL TOWER IS
STAFFED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/MBS
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...KK/MBS
EQUIPMENT...RAB




000
FXUS61 KLWX 221939
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
239 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA IS SHIFTING OFFSHORE. A
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT A
WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT STALLS JUST
OFFSHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EAST OF GEORGIA WEDNESDAY MORNING...
TRACKING NORTH ALONG THE COAST DURING THE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

HIGH PRES HAS MIGRATED OVR ERN N CAROLINA...BUT AS MDLS HAD BEEN
PREDICTING IT IS DOING A GOOD JOB OF KEEP THE CLDS TO THE N AT
BAY. MID LVL CLDS CAN BE SEEN ALONG THE MASON-DISON LN...AND THIS
WL LKLY BE A WORST-CASE SCENARIO THIS EVE OVR MD. VA SHOULD CONT
TO HV PRIMARILY CLR SKIES. IT WL NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NGT..LOWS
A30 MOST OF THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...

SUNDAY WL BE THE LAST PD W/O MUCH WX TO TALK ABT. HIGH PRES CONTS
TO DRIFT AWAY. RGN WL BE UNDER SRLY FLOW. HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGS
WARMER THAN TDA - M50S MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND AN ATTENDANT
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL BE PIVOTING NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY...WHILE A WARM FRONT PUSHES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. A STRONG
LLJ WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...WITH A SOLID SHIELD OF
MODERATE RAIN EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA AFTER 00Z. RAISED POPS
TO 100 ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT THE FAR WESTERN RIDGES...AS
THIS LOOKS LIKE A WELL FORCED SYNOPTIC EVENT WITH SIMILAR TIMING IN
THE MODEL GUIDANCE. THE ONLY QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY IS THE COOL
NEAR-SURFACE AIR SCOURED OUT WITH A NIGHTTIME WARM FRONT AND
POSSIBLE IN-SITU CAD. REGARDLESS OF THE TIMING...TEMPERATURES AND
DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB STEADILY THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS. 50 KT OF 0-1 KM SHEAR ALONG THE WARM FRONT...BUT
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR ZERO...ALTHOUGH THE NAM AND A FEW
SREF MEMBERS BRING A LITTLE ELEVATED CAPE EAST OF I-95. LEFT MENTION
OF THUNDER OUT...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR EMBEDDED RUMBLES. LOW LEVEL WINDS ALSO FAVOR A SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE
FLOW...SO THE HIGHEST QPF IS DEPICTED ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. PWATS WILL APPROACH 1.5 INCHES...SO EXPECT SOME SPOTS
COULD EASILY NEAR AN INCH OF RAIN. RIDGE TOPS COULD BE RATHER BREEZY
DUE TO THE LLJ. MAIN SHIELD OF PRECIP WILL PULL NORTHEAST AFTER 09Z
AS MID LEVEL DRYING BEGINS TO WORK IN.

CWA WILL BE WARM SECTORED ON MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND SOME LOWER 70S TO
THE EAST...GETTING CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS (SEE CLIMATE SECTION). IT
WILL ALSO BE BREEZY WITH SOME GUSTS TOPPING 25 MPH. BIGGEST QUESTION
OF THE DAY IS PRECIP POTENTIAL. THE 12Z NAM IS STILL AN OUTLIER WITH
MORE MOISTURE AND A NARROW CAPE PROFILE...WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING.
THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW MID LEVEL DRYING AND SOME
CAPPING...AND THUS DRY. WILL LEAN THIS WAY...KEEPING VERY LOW POPS.
HOWEVER THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL BECAUSE IF
SHOWERS/STORMS DO DEVELOP...THEY WILL HAVE STRONG SHEAR TO TAP INTO.

BY MONDAY EVENING...THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO QUEBEC...WITH THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED...WITH THE NAM AND SREF THE MOST ROBUST WITH SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SMALL POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE 40S...WITH 30S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE THE COLDER
AIR WILL ARRIVE EARLIER.

GUIDANCE STILL DIFFERS SUBSTANTIALLY ON THE AMPLITUDE OF A RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING ONSHORE
OF WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND THE INTERACTION OF TWO SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. 00Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS MORE
PRONOUNCED WITH THE RIDGE OUT WEST BECAUSE IT IS WEAKER WITH THE
INCOMING PACIFIC SHORTWAVE...AND AS A RESULT ALLOWS MORE
AMPLIFICATION/PHASING OF TWO SHORTWAVES OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES LEADING TO STRONGER CYCLOGENESIS MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST.
THE LATEST OPERATIONAL 12Z GFS HAS TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION AS
WELL...SO HAVE STARTED WITH WPC AS A BASELINE THEN TWEAKED POPS
UPWARD A FEW PERCENT AND NUDGED TEMPERATURES DOWN ABOUT A DEGREE OR
TWO /MORE AMPLIFIED NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND STREAM INTERACTION
BRINGS IN COLDER AIR/.

OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS EACH MODEL CYCLE HAS A FEW MORE ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS BRINGING LOW PRESSURE CLOSER TO THE COAST...BUT THE OVERALL
PATTERN IS NOT A CLASSIC SETUP FOR HEAVY WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN THE
METRO AREAS DUE IN LARGE PART TO THE RIDGE OUT WEST BEING
UNDERCUT/WEAKENED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS WOULD ACT TO KEEP THE
PATTERN LESS AMPLIFIED AND THE EAST COAST SYSTEM MORE
PROGRESSIVE/TRANSIENT...WITH LESS COLD AIR REACHING THE CWA IN
CONCERT WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST.

BOTTOM LINE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE INCREASED DURING THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD WHICH COINCIDES WITH THE BUSIEST TRAVEL TIME OF THE
YEAR SO IT DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING. WINTRY PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE
RULED OUT BUT AT THE MOMENT THIS SETUP DOES NOT APPEAR TO FAVOR A
CLASSIC MID-ATLANTIC SNOWSTORM.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...MORE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOLLOWS LATER IN THE
WEEK...GRADUALLY MODERATING INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD THEN OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

VFR CONDS TNGT AND SUN.

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN. A PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...DIMINISHING AND TURNING
WESTERLY MONDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDTIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT.

W FLOW AOB 10 KTS TUE W/ VFR...BECOMING N OR NE TUE
NIGHT-WED...UNCERTAIN IN EXACT MAGNITUDE/DIRECTION DUE TO MODEL
DISAGREEMENT IN PLACEMENT OF LOW PRES ALONG COAST. LOW PRES ALSO MAY
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LWR CIGS/VSBYS LATE TUE NIGHT-WED EVE. WINDS
BECOME W AGAIN AROUND 10 KTS THU W/ RETURN TO VFR LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS ON THE WATERS ARE GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KT. SCA IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL EARLY EVE. NO PROBS ARE FORESEEN OVRNGT OR SUNDAY.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS
WINDS INCREASE BEHIND A WARM FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL TURN WINDS TO
THE WEST MONDAY EVENING...WITH GUSTS GRADUALLY WEAKENING.

UNLESS LOW PRES WINDS UP MUCH MORE THAN CURRENTLY PROJECTED BY EVEN
THE STRONGER MODEL SOLUTIONS TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE
WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

CLIMATE...

ABNORMAL EARLY SEASON COLD CONTINUES...BUT WILL GIVE WAY TO NEAR
RECORD WARMTH MONDAY.

IAD TIED A RECORD LOW OF 14 DEGREES THIS MORNING...PREVIOUSLY SET
BACK IN 1964. PERHAPS MORE TELLING IS THE FACT THAT BWI AND IAD HAVE
NOT EXCEEDED 50 DEGREES IN A WEEK. TODAY`S HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN IN THE 40S...WHICH WOULD BE THE 8TH CONSECUTIVE DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW 50 AT BOTH SITES...SECOND MOST ON RECORD AT IAD
IN THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER...AND THE LONGEST NOVEMBER STRETCH AT BWI
SINCE 1944.

STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL USHER IN
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES...AND HIGHS MONDAY COULD APPROACH
RECORD MAXIMUM VALUES. BELOW IS A LIST OF RECORD DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR 11/24.

SITE   RECORD (YEAR)
DCA    74 (1958)
BWI    73 (1979)
IAD    74 (1979)

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>543.

$$

PRODUCTS...WOODY!/ADS/DFH








000
FXUS61 KLWX 221939
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
239 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA IS SHIFTING OFFSHORE. A
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT A
WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT STALLS JUST
OFFSHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EAST OF GEORGIA WEDNESDAY MORNING...
TRACKING NORTH ALONG THE COAST DURING THE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

HIGH PRES HAS MIGRATED OVR ERN N CAROLINA...BUT AS MDLS HAD BEEN
PREDICTING IT IS DOING A GOOD JOB OF KEEP THE CLDS TO THE N AT
BAY. MID LVL CLDS CAN BE SEEN ALONG THE MASON-DISON LN...AND THIS
WL LKLY BE A WORST-CASE SCENARIO THIS EVE OVR MD. VA SHOULD CONT
TO HV PRIMARILY CLR SKIES. IT WL NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NGT..LOWS
A30 MOST OF THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...

SUNDAY WL BE THE LAST PD W/O MUCH WX TO TALK ABT. HIGH PRES CONTS
TO DRIFT AWAY. RGN WL BE UNDER SRLY FLOW. HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGS
WARMER THAN TDA - M50S MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND AN ATTENDANT
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL BE PIVOTING NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY...WHILE A WARM FRONT PUSHES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. A STRONG
LLJ WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...WITH A SOLID SHIELD OF
MODERATE RAIN EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA AFTER 00Z. RAISED POPS
TO 100 ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT THE FAR WESTERN RIDGES...AS
THIS LOOKS LIKE A WELL FORCED SYNOPTIC EVENT WITH SIMILAR TIMING IN
THE MODEL GUIDANCE. THE ONLY QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY IS THE COOL
NEAR-SURFACE AIR SCOURED OUT WITH A NIGHTTIME WARM FRONT AND
POSSIBLE IN-SITU CAD. REGARDLESS OF THE TIMING...TEMPERATURES AND
DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB STEADILY THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS. 50 KT OF 0-1 KM SHEAR ALONG THE WARM FRONT...BUT
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR ZERO...ALTHOUGH THE NAM AND A FEW
SREF MEMBERS BRING A LITTLE ELEVATED CAPE EAST OF I-95. LEFT MENTION
OF THUNDER OUT...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR EMBEDDED RUMBLES. LOW LEVEL WINDS ALSO FAVOR A SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE
FLOW...SO THE HIGHEST QPF IS DEPICTED ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. PWATS WILL APPROACH 1.5 INCHES...SO EXPECT SOME SPOTS
COULD EASILY NEAR AN INCH OF RAIN. RIDGE TOPS COULD BE RATHER BREEZY
DUE TO THE LLJ. MAIN SHIELD OF PRECIP WILL PULL NORTHEAST AFTER 09Z
AS MID LEVEL DRYING BEGINS TO WORK IN.

CWA WILL BE WARM SECTORED ON MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND SOME LOWER 70S TO
THE EAST...GETTING CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS (SEE CLIMATE SECTION). IT
WILL ALSO BE BREEZY WITH SOME GUSTS TOPPING 25 MPH. BIGGEST QUESTION
OF THE DAY IS PRECIP POTENTIAL. THE 12Z NAM IS STILL AN OUTLIER WITH
MORE MOISTURE AND A NARROW CAPE PROFILE...WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING.
THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW MID LEVEL DRYING AND SOME
CAPPING...AND THUS DRY. WILL LEAN THIS WAY...KEEPING VERY LOW POPS.
HOWEVER THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL BECAUSE IF
SHOWERS/STORMS DO DEVELOP...THEY WILL HAVE STRONG SHEAR TO TAP INTO.

BY MONDAY EVENING...THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO QUEBEC...WITH THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED...WITH THE NAM AND SREF THE MOST ROBUST WITH SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SMALL POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE 40S...WITH 30S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE THE COLDER
AIR WILL ARRIVE EARLIER.

GUIDANCE STILL DIFFERS SUBSTANTIALLY ON THE AMPLITUDE OF A RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING ONSHORE
OF WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND THE INTERACTION OF TWO SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. 00Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS MORE
PRONOUNCED WITH THE RIDGE OUT WEST BECAUSE IT IS WEAKER WITH THE
INCOMING PACIFIC SHORTWAVE...AND AS A RESULT ALLOWS MORE
AMPLIFICATION/PHASING OF TWO SHORTWAVES OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES LEADING TO STRONGER CYCLOGENESIS MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST.
THE LATEST OPERATIONAL 12Z GFS HAS TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION AS
WELL...SO HAVE STARTED WITH WPC AS A BASELINE THEN TWEAKED POPS
UPWARD A FEW PERCENT AND NUDGED TEMPERATURES DOWN ABOUT A DEGREE OR
TWO /MORE AMPLIFIED NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND STREAM INTERACTION
BRINGS IN COLDER AIR/.

OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS EACH MODEL CYCLE HAS A FEW MORE ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS BRINGING LOW PRESSURE CLOSER TO THE COAST...BUT THE OVERALL
PATTERN IS NOT A CLASSIC SETUP FOR HEAVY WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN THE
METRO AREAS DUE IN LARGE PART TO THE RIDGE OUT WEST BEING
UNDERCUT/WEAKENED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS WOULD ACT TO KEEP THE
PATTERN LESS AMPLIFIED AND THE EAST COAST SYSTEM MORE
PROGRESSIVE/TRANSIENT...WITH LESS COLD AIR REACHING THE CWA IN
CONCERT WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST.

BOTTOM LINE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE INCREASED DURING THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD WHICH COINCIDES WITH THE BUSIEST TRAVEL TIME OF THE
YEAR SO IT DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING. WINTRY PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE
RULED OUT BUT AT THE MOMENT THIS SETUP DOES NOT APPEAR TO FAVOR A
CLASSIC MID-ATLANTIC SNOWSTORM.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...MORE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOLLOWS LATER IN THE
WEEK...GRADUALLY MODERATING INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD THEN OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

VFR CONDS TNGT AND SUN.

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN. A PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...DIMINISHING AND TURNING
WESTERLY MONDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDTIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT.

W FLOW AOB 10 KTS TUE W/ VFR...BECOMING N OR NE TUE
NIGHT-WED...UNCERTAIN IN EXACT MAGNITUDE/DIRECTION DUE TO MODEL
DISAGREEMENT IN PLACEMENT OF LOW PRES ALONG COAST. LOW PRES ALSO MAY
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LWR CIGS/VSBYS LATE TUE NIGHT-WED EVE. WINDS
BECOME W AGAIN AROUND 10 KTS THU W/ RETURN TO VFR LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS ON THE WATERS ARE GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KT. SCA IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL EARLY EVE. NO PROBS ARE FORESEEN OVRNGT OR SUNDAY.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS
WINDS INCREASE BEHIND A WARM FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL TURN WINDS TO
THE WEST MONDAY EVENING...WITH GUSTS GRADUALLY WEAKENING.

UNLESS LOW PRES WINDS UP MUCH MORE THAN CURRENTLY PROJECTED BY EVEN
THE STRONGER MODEL SOLUTIONS TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE
WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

CLIMATE...

ABNORMAL EARLY SEASON COLD CONTINUES...BUT WILL GIVE WAY TO NEAR
RECORD WARMTH MONDAY.

IAD TIED A RECORD LOW OF 14 DEGREES THIS MORNING...PREVIOUSLY SET
BACK IN 1964. PERHAPS MORE TELLING IS THE FACT THAT BWI AND IAD HAVE
NOT EXCEEDED 50 DEGREES IN A WEEK. TODAY`S HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN IN THE 40S...WHICH WOULD BE THE 8TH CONSECUTIVE DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW 50 AT BOTH SITES...SECOND MOST ON RECORD AT IAD
IN THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER...AND THE LONGEST NOVEMBER STRETCH AT BWI
SINCE 1944.

STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL USHER IN
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES...AND HIGHS MONDAY COULD APPROACH
RECORD MAXIMUM VALUES. BELOW IS A LIST OF RECORD DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR 11/24.

SITE   RECORD (YEAR)
DCA    74 (1958)
BWI    73 (1979)
IAD    74 (1979)

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>543.

$$

PRODUCTS...WOODY!/ADS/DFH








000
FXUS61 KLWX 221939
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
239 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA IS SHIFTING OFFSHORE. A
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT A
WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT STALLS JUST
OFFSHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EAST OF GEORGIA WEDNESDAY MORNING...
TRACKING NORTH ALONG THE COAST DURING THE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

HIGH PRES HAS MIGRATED OVR ERN N CAROLINA...BUT AS MDLS HAD BEEN
PREDICTING IT IS DOING A GOOD JOB OF KEEP THE CLDS TO THE N AT
BAY. MID LVL CLDS CAN BE SEEN ALONG THE MASON-DISON LN...AND THIS
WL LKLY BE A WORST-CASE SCENARIO THIS EVE OVR MD. VA SHOULD CONT
TO HV PRIMARILY CLR SKIES. IT WL NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NGT..LOWS
A30 MOST OF THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...

SUNDAY WL BE THE LAST PD W/O MUCH WX TO TALK ABT. HIGH PRES CONTS
TO DRIFT AWAY. RGN WL BE UNDER SRLY FLOW. HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGS
WARMER THAN TDA - M50S MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND AN ATTENDANT
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL BE PIVOTING NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY...WHILE A WARM FRONT PUSHES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. A STRONG
LLJ WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...WITH A SOLID SHIELD OF
MODERATE RAIN EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA AFTER 00Z. RAISED POPS
TO 100 ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT THE FAR WESTERN RIDGES...AS
THIS LOOKS LIKE A WELL FORCED SYNOPTIC EVENT WITH SIMILAR TIMING IN
THE MODEL GUIDANCE. THE ONLY QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY IS THE COOL
NEAR-SURFACE AIR SCOURED OUT WITH A NIGHTTIME WARM FRONT AND
POSSIBLE IN-SITU CAD. REGARDLESS OF THE TIMING...TEMPERATURES AND
DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB STEADILY THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS. 50 KT OF 0-1 KM SHEAR ALONG THE WARM FRONT...BUT
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR ZERO...ALTHOUGH THE NAM AND A FEW
SREF MEMBERS BRING A LITTLE ELEVATED CAPE EAST OF I-95. LEFT MENTION
OF THUNDER OUT...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR EMBEDDED RUMBLES. LOW LEVEL WINDS ALSO FAVOR A SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE
FLOW...SO THE HIGHEST QPF IS DEPICTED ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. PWATS WILL APPROACH 1.5 INCHES...SO EXPECT SOME SPOTS
COULD EASILY NEAR AN INCH OF RAIN. RIDGE TOPS COULD BE RATHER BREEZY
DUE TO THE LLJ. MAIN SHIELD OF PRECIP WILL PULL NORTHEAST AFTER 09Z
AS MID LEVEL DRYING BEGINS TO WORK IN.

CWA WILL BE WARM SECTORED ON MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND SOME LOWER 70S TO
THE EAST...GETTING CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS (SEE CLIMATE SECTION). IT
WILL ALSO BE BREEZY WITH SOME GUSTS TOPPING 25 MPH. BIGGEST QUESTION
OF THE DAY IS PRECIP POTENTIAL. THE 12Z NAM IS STILL AN OUTLIER WITH
MORE MOISTURE AND A NARROW CAPE PROFILE...WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING.
THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW MID LEVEL DRYING AND SOME
CAPPING...AND THUS DRY. WILL LEAN THIS WAY...KEEPING VERY LOW POPS.
HOWEVER THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL BECAUSE IF
SHOWERS/STORMS DO DEVELOP...THEY WILL HAVE STRONG SHEAR TO TAP INTO.

BY MONDAY EVENING...THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO QUEBEC...WITH THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED...WITH THE NAM AND SREF THE MOST ROBUST WITH SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SMALL POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE 40S...WITH 30S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE THE COLDER
AIR WILL ARRIVE EARLIER.

GUIDANCE STILL DIFFERS SUBSTANTIALLY ON THE AMPLITUDE OF A RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING ONSHORE
OF WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND THE INTERACTION OF TWO SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. 00Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS MORE
PRONOUNCED WITH THE RIDGE OUT WEST BECAUSE IT IS WEAKER WITH THE
INCOMING PACIFIC SHORTWAVE...AND AS A RESULT ALLOWS MORE
AMPLIFICATION/PHASING OF TWO SHORTWAVES OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES LEADING TO STRONGER CYCLOGENESIS MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST.
THE LATEST OPERATIONAL 12Z GFS HAS TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION AS
WELL...SO HAVE STARTED WITH WPC AS A BASELINE THEN TWEAKED POPS
UPWARD A FEW PERCENT AND NUDGED TEMPERATURES DOWN ABOUT A DEGREE OR
TWO /MORE AMPLIFIED NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND STREAM INTERACTION
BRINGS IN COLDER AIR/.

OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS EACH MODEL CYCLE HAS A FEW MORE ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS BRINGING LOW PRESSURE CLOSER TO THE COAST...BUT THE OVERALL
PATTERN IS NOT A CLASSIC SETUP FOR HEAVY WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN THE
METRO AREAS DUE IN LARGE PART TO THE RIDGE OUT WEST BEING
UNDERCUT/WEAKENED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS WOULD ACT TO KEEP THE
PATTERN LESS AMPLIFIED AND THE EAST COAST SYSTEM MORE
PROGRESSIVE/TRANSIENT...WITH LESS COLD AIR REACHING THE CWA IN
CONCERT WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST.

BOTTOM LINE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE INCREASED DURING THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD WHICH COINCIDES WITH THE BUSIEST TRAVEL TIME OF THE
YEAR SO IT DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING. WINTRY PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE
RULED OUT BUT AT THE MOMENT THIS SETUP DOES NOT APPEAR TO FAVOR A
CLASSIC MID-ATLANTIC SNOWSTORM.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...MORE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOLLOWS LATER IN THE
WEEK...GRADUALLY MODERATING INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD THEN OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

VFR CONDS TNGT AND SUN.

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN. A PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...DIMINISHING AND TURNING
WESTERLY MONDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDTIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT.

W FLOW AOB 10 KTS TUE W/ VFR...BECOMING N OR NE TUE
NIGHT-WED...UNCERTAIN IN EXACT MAGNITUDE/DIRECTION DUE TO MODEL
DISAGREEMENT IN PLACEMENT OF LOW PRES ALONG COAST. LOW PRES ALSO MAY
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LWR CIGS/VSBYS LATE TUE NIGHT-WED EVE. WINDS
BECOME W AGAIN AROUND 10 KTS THU W/ RETURN TO VFR LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS ON THE WATERS ARE GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KT. SCA IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL EARLY EVE. NO PROBS ARE FORESEEN OVRNGT OR SUNDAY.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS
WINDS INCREASE BEHIND A WARM FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL TURN WINDS TO
THE WEST MONDAY EVENING...WITH GUSTS GRADUALLY WEAKENING.

UNLESS LOW PRES WINDS UP MUCH MORE THAN CURRENTLY PROJECTED BY EVEN
THE STRONGER MODEL SOLUTIONS TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE
WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

CLIMATE...

ABNORMAL EARLY SEASON COLD CONTINUES...BUT WILL GIVE WAY TO NEAR
RECORD WARMTH MONDAY.

IAD TIED A RECORD LOW OF 14 DEGREES THIS MORNING...PREVIOUSLY SET
BACK IN 1964. PERHAPS MORE TELLING IS THE FACT THAT BWI AND IAD HAVE
NOT EXCEEDED 50 DEGREES IN A WEEK. TODAY`S HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN IN THE 40S...WHICH WOULD BE THE 8TH CONSECUTIVE DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW 50 AT BOTH SITES...SECOND MOST ON RECORD AT IAD
IN THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER...AND THE LONGEST NOVEMBER STRETCH AT BWI
SINCE 1944.

STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL USHER IN
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES...AND HIGHS MONDAY COULD APPROACH
RECORD MAXIMUM VALUES. BELOW IS A LIST OF RECORD DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR 11/24.

SITE   RECORD (YEAR)
DCA    74 (1958)
BWI    73 (1979)
IAD    74 (1979)

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>543.

$$

PRODUCTS...WOODY!/ADS/DFH








000
FXUS61 KLWX 221939
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
239 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA IS SHIFTING OFFSHORE. A
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT A
WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT STALLS JUST
OFFSHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EAST OF GEORGIA WEDNESDAY MORNING...
TRACKING NORTH ALONG THE COAST DURING THE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

HIGH PRES HAS MIGRATED OVR ERN N CAROLINA...BUT AS MDLS HAD BEEN
PREDICTING IT IS DOING A GOOD JOB OF KEEP THE CLDS TO THE N AT
BAY. MID LVL CLDS CAN BE SEEN ALONG THE MASON-DISON LN...AND THIS
WL LKLY BE A WORST-CASE SCENARIO THIS EVE OVR MD. VA SHOULD CONT
TO HV PRIMARILY CLR SKIES. IT WL NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NGT..LOWS
A30 MOST OF THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...

SUNDAY WL BE THE LAST PD W/O MUCH WX TO TALK ABT. HIGH PRES CONTS
TO DRIFT AWAY. RGN WL BE UNDER SRLY FLOW. HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGS
WARMER THAN TDA - M50S MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND AN ATTENDANT
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL BE PIVOTING NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY...WHILE A WARM FRONT PUSHES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. A STRONG
LLJ WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...WITH A SOLID SHIELD OF
MODERATE RAIN EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA AFTER 00Z. RAISED POPS
TO 100 ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT THE FAR WESTERN RIDGES...AS
THIS LOOKS LIKE A WELL FORCED SYNOPTIC EVENT WITH SIMILAR TIMING IN
THE MODEL GUIDANCE. THE ONLY QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY IS THE COOL
NEAR-SURFACE AIR SCOURED OUT WITH A NIGHTTIME WARM FRONT AND
POSSIBLE IN-SITU CAD. REGARDLESS OF THE TIMING...TEMPERATURES AND
DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB STEADILY THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS. 50 KT OF 0-1 KM SHEAR ALONG THE WARM FRONT...BUT
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR ZERO...ALTHOUGH THE NAM AND A FEW
SREF MEMBERS BRING A LITTLE ELEVATED CAPE EAST OF I-95. LEFT MENTION
OF THUNDER OUT...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR EMBEDDED RUMBLES. LOW LEVEL WINDS ALSO FAVOR A SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE
FLOW...SO THE HIGHEST QPF IS DEPICTED ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. PWATS WILL APPROACH 1.5 INCHES...SO EXPECT SOME SPOTS
COULD EASILY NEAR AN INCH OF RAIN. RIDGE TOPS COULD BE RATHER BREEZY
DUE TO THE LLJ. MAIN SHIELD OF PRECIP WILL PULL NORTHEAST AFTER 09Z
AS MID LEVEL DRYING BEGINS TO WORK IN.

CWA WILL BE WARM SECTORED ON MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND SOME LOWER 70S TO
THE EAST...GETTING CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS (SEE CLIMATE SECTION). IT
WILL ALSO BE BREEZY WITH SOME GUSTS TOPPING 25 MPH. BIGGEST QUESTION
OF THE DAY IS PRECIP POTENTIAL. THE 12Z NAM IS STILL AN OUTLIER WITH
MORE MOISTURE AND A NARROW CAPE PROFILE...WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING.
THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW MID LEVEL DRYING AND SOME
CAPPING...AND THUS DRY. WILL LEAN THIS WAY...KEEPING VERY LOW POPS.
HOWEVER THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL BECAUSE IF
SHOWERS/STORMS DO DEVELOP...THEY WILL HAVE STRONG SHEAR TO TAP INTO.

BY MONDAY EVENING...THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO QUEBEC...WITH THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED...WITH THE NAM AND SREF THE MOST ROBUST WITH SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SMALL POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE 40S...WITH 30S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE THE COLDER
AIR WILL ARRIVE EARLIER.

GUIDANCE STILL DIFFERS SUBSTANTIALLY ON THE AMPLITUDE OF A RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING ONSHORE
OF WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND THE INTERACTION OF TWO SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. 00Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS MORE
PRONOUNCED WITH THE RIDGE OUT WEST BECAUSE IT IS WEAKER WITH THE
INCOMING PACIFIC SHORTWAVE...AND AS A RESULT ALLOWS MORE
AMPLIFICATION/PHASING OF TWO SHORTWAVES OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES LEADING TO STRONGER CYCLOGENESIS MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST.
THE LATEST OPERATIONAL 12Z GFS HAS TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION AS
WELL...SO HAVE STARTED WITH WPC AS A BASELINE THEN TWEAKED POPS
UPWARD A FEW PERCENT AND NUDGED TEMPERATURES DOWN ABOUT A DEGREE OR
TWO /MORE AMPLIFIED NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND STREAM INTERACTION
BRINGS IN COLDER AIR/.

OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS EACH MODEL CYCLE HAS A FEW MORE ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS BRINGING LOW PRESSURE CLOSER TO THE COAST...BUT THE OVERALL
PATTERN IS NOT A CLASSIC SETUP FOR HEAVY WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN THE
METRO AREAS DUE IN LARGE PART TO THE RIDGE OUT WEST BEING
UNDERCUT/WEAKENED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS WOULD ACT TO KEEP THE
PATTERN LESS AMPLIFIED AND THE EAST COAST SYSTEM MORE
PROGRESSIVE/TRANSIENT...WITH LESS COLD AIR REACHING THE CWA IN
CONCERT WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST.

BOTTOM LINE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE INCREASED DURING THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD WHICH COINCIDES WITH THE BUSIEST TRAVEL TIME OF THE
YEAR SO IT DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING. WINTRY PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE
RULED OUT BUT AT THE MOMENT THIS SETUP DOES NOT APPEAR TO FAVOR A
CLASSIC MID-ATLANTIC SNOWSTORM.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...MORE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOLLOWS LATER IN THE
WEEK...GRADUALLY MODERATING INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD THEN OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

VFR CONDS TNGT AND SUN.

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN. A PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...DIMINISHING AND TURNING
WESTERLY MONDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDTIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT.

W FLOW AOB 10 KTS TUE W/ VFR...BECOMING N OR NE TUE
NIGHT-WED...UNCERTAIN IN EXACT MAGNITUDE/DIRECTION DUE TO MODEL
DISAGREEMENT IN PLACEMENT OF LOW PRES ALONG COAST. LOW PRES ALSO MAY
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LWR CIGS/VSBYS LATE TUE NIGHT-WED EVE. WINDS
BECOME W AGAIN AROUND 10 KTS THU W/ RETURN TO VFR LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS ON THE WATERS ARE GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KT. SCA IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL EARLY EVE. NO PROBS ARE FORESEEN OVRNGT OR SUNDAY.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS
WINDS INCREASE BEHIND A WARM FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL TURN WINDS TO
THE WEST MONDAY EVENING...WITH GUSTS GRADUALLY WEAKENING.

UNLESS LOW PRES WINDS UP MUCH MORE THAN CURRENTLY PROJECTED BY EVEN
THE STRONGER MODEL SOLUTIONS TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE
WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

CLIMATE...

ABNORMAL EARLY SEASON COLD CONTINUES...BUT WILL GIVE WAY TO NEAR
RECORD WARMTH MONDAY.

IAD TIED A RECORD LOW OF 14 DEGREES THIS MORNING...PREVIOUSLY SET
BACK IN 1964. PERHAPS MORE TELLING IS THE FACT THAT BWI AND IAD HAVE
NOT EXCEEDED 50 DEGREES IN A WEEK. TODAY`S HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN IN THE 40S...WHICH WOULD BE THE 8TH CONSECUTIVE DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW 50 AT BOTH SITES...SECOND MOST ON RECORD AT IAD
IN THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER...AND THE LONGEST NOVEMBER STRETCH AT BWI
SINCE 1944.

STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL USHER IN
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES...AND HIGHS MONDAY COULD APPROACH
RECORD MAXIMUM VALUES. BELOW IS A LIST OF RECORD DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR 11/24.

SITE   RECORD (YEAR)
DCA    74 (1958)
BWI    73 (1979)
IAD    74 (1979)

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>543.

$$

PRODUCTS...WOODY!/ADS/DFH








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221812
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
112 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING...THEN
SLIDES OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH AND ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HI PRES (~1036MB) CENTERED OVR NC ATTM. TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO
THE M30S/L40S AS OF 10 AM...AFTER A (VERY) COLD START UNDER SKC
AND NR CALM WNDS W/ MOST LO TEMPS FM THE UPR TEENS TO THE M20S.
THE HI IS SLO TO WEAKEN/DRIFT OFF THE CST LATER TDA. LGT/VRB WNDS
BECOME SSW RESULTING IN MODERATION. SKY RMNS MNLY SKC THROUGH THIS
AFTN. HI TEMPS FM THE U40S N TO L50S FAR SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND THICKEN FM THE SW LATE TNGT
THROUGH MIDDAY SUN...AS GULF CST MOISTURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT LIFTS NE THROUGH THE SE CONUS. CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY SAT NGT WITH LOWS RANGING THRU THE 30S.

THE WARM FRONT WITH STRONG VERTICAL MOTION AND ASSOCIATED
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE WILL LIFT NE AND ACRS THE MDATLC RGN SUN
SUN NGT. HAVE POPS FOR RAIN INCREASING TO 30-50% SW 1/2 OF FA
DURING SUN AFTN...THEN TO 80-90% EVERYWHERE BETWEEN 00Z-06Z
MON...AND FM ABT 70% NE TO 40% SW BETWEEN 06Z-12Z MON. ADDED SLGT
CHC T FOR CSTL NE NC (AND SPC HAS SLGT CHC SVR). TIGHTENING PRES
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN BREEZY/WINDY CONDS...ESP INVOF CST. GUSTS
FM SSE DIRECTION TO 30 TO 40 MPH PSBL. HI TEMPS SUN RANGING FM THE
L/M50S NW TO THE L60S SE. LOWS SUN NGT RANGING THRU THE 50S...W/
READINGS LIKELY TO RISE AFT MDNGT. QPF AVGG 1/2 TO 1 INCH.

THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NNE OF THE REGION AT 12Z MON...WITH A
CDFNT PUSHING TWD/INTO OUR EXTRM WRN CNTIES BY 00Z TUE. AFTER LWR
CLOUDS AND PSBL FOG MON MRNG...SW WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE CDFNT
BECOME GUSTY...AND WILL HELP TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 70S UNDER A
PARTLY SUNNY SKY. FOR NOW...POPS AOB 14% ON MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST BY 12Z TUE. BNDRY THEN
STALLS OVR THE GULF STREAM TUE & WED IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF
S/W`S PROGGED TO DVLP THEN MOVE NE ALONG IT. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRS
(OF PACIFIC ORIGIN) OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION BUILDS S&E THRU
THE MID WEEK PRD. UPR LVL LOW AND TRAILING CDFRNT PROGGED TO DIVE
SE FROM THE GT LAKES THU WITH HIGH PRS BUILDING INTO THE ARA FRI.

GRIDS WILL INDICATE SLGHT CHC SHWRS WITH FROPA MONDAY NIGHT. COOLER
AS CAA SET IN BEHIND THE FRNT. LOWS M-U40S NWRN HALF 50-55 SERN
HALF. TUE THRU WED FCST DEPENDS ON HOW FAR N&W MSTR GETS FROM THE
DVLPNG LOW OFF THE SERN COAST. GFS HAS A TRACK A BIT FRTHR EAST
KEEPING THE PCPN CONFINED TO SERN CSTL AREAS BY LATE TUE...AND GNRLY
E OF I95 WED. ECMWF SLOWER WITH A DRY TUE...PCPN MOVG ACROSS SERN
CSTL AREAS TUE NIGHT THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA WED BEFORE
PULLING OUT TO SEAS WED NIGHT.

TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF WITH THE COASTAL LOW TUE & WED...BUT THNK
IT IS OVERDONE WRT THE DEEPENING OF THE LOW OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST
TURKEY DAY. WILL INDICATE 20-30 POP ACROSS SERN CSTL AREAS TUE. DRY
ELSEWHERE. HIGHS M50S-L60S. A GENERAL RAIN OVRSPRDS THE FA SE-NW
TUES NIGHT AND WED...THEN ENDS WED EVE AS THE LOW PULLS FRTHR
OFFSHORE. PCPN ALL LIQUID WITH THIS EVENT. LOWS TUE NIGHT M30S-M40S.
HIGHS WED M40S-L50S. PCPN ENDS WED EVE BEFORE THE COLD AIR ARRIVES.
LOWS AFTER THE RAIN ENDS FALL INTO THE U20S-L30S W OF THE
BAY...M-U30S SERN CSTL AREAS.

CLIPPER TYPE S/W DIVES SE THU. ENUF MSTR SEEN WITH THIS FTR FOR AT
LEAST SLGHT CHC DIURNAL SHWRS (PSBLY MIXED WITH IP???) THANKSGIVING
DAY. HIGHS 45-50. DRYING OUT THURS NIGHT AND FRI. LOWS U20S-M30S
XCPT 35-40 SERN CSTL AREAS. HIGHS FRI M-U40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE VA/NC BOARDER WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST DURING THE EVENING. THIS WILL CONTINUE A SOUTHERLY WIND
DIRECTION WHILE INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.

A MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL HELP FORM A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE SE US AS THE MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVES NE OUT OF THE GOMEX
ON SUN. THIS WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE MOISTURE AS A WARM FRONT
SURGES THROUGH THE AREA SUN NIGHT. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS(POSSIBLY
LOWER) DUE TO LOWERED CEILINGS AND REDUCED VIS DUE TO RAIN.
ALSO...WIND GUST TO 35KT MAY BE POSSIBLE MON MORNING AS THE SYSTEM
DEEPENS OVER THE AREA. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE OVER NE NC/SE VA.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA OVR SRN CSTL WTRS HAS EXPIRED AS SEAS DROPPED BLO 5 FT. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNG...EXPECT 2-3 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS WITH
LGT WINDS AS STRONG SFC HI PRES CENTERS OVR THE WTRS. THE HI
SLIDES FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS AFTN...WITH WINDS BCMG SLY AT 10-15 KT.
NEXT LO PRES SYSTM PUSHES NE TOWARDS THE OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
SUN/SUN NGT...WITH S/SE FLOW RAMPING UP OVR THE LOCAL WTRS AS THE
PRES GRADIENT INCREASES. SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUN NGT INTO MON
IN RESPONSE TO THIS...AND MAY CONTINUE UNTIL MON NGT WHEN THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRNT CROSSES THE AREA. GUSTS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE
OVR THE OCEAN AS WELL. WITH THIS BEING 4TH PERIOD WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW. WAVES OVR THE BAY WILL REACH 3-4 FT WITH SEAS
OVR CSTL WTRS UP TO 6-8 FT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED MONDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

RIC 76 1979
ORF 78 1983
SBY 78 1931
ECG 77 1983

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB/TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221812
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
112 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING...THEN
SLIDES OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH AND ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HI PRES (~1036MB) CENTERED OVR NC ATTM. TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO
THE M30S/L40S AS OF 10 AM...AFTER A (VERY) COLD START UNDER SKC
AND NR CALM WNDS W/ MOST LO TEMPS FM THE UPR TEENS TO THE M20S.
THE HI IS SLO TO WEAKEN/DRIFT OFF THE CST LATER TDA. LGT/VRB WNDS
BECOME SSW RESULTING IN MODERATION. SKY RMNS MNLY SKC THROUGH THIS
AFTN. HI TEMPS FM THE U40S N TO L50S FAR SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND THICKEN FM THE SW LATE TNGT
THROUGH MIDDAY SUN...AS GULF CST MOISTURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT LIFTS NE THROUGH THE SE CONUS. CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY SAT NGT WITH LOWS RANGING THRU THE 30S.

THE WARM FRONT WITH STRONG VERTICAL MOTION AND ASSOCIATED
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE WILL LIFT NE AND ACRS THE MDATLC RGN SUN
SUN NGT. HAVE POPS FOR RAIN INCREASING TO 30-50% SW 1/2 OF FA
DURING SUN AFTN...THEN TO 80-90% EVERYWHERE BETWEEN 00Z-06Z
MON...AND FM ABT 70% NE TO 40% SW BETWEEN 06Z-12Z MON. ADDED SLGT
CHC T FOR CSTL NE NC (AND SPC HAS SLGT CHC SVR). TIGHTENING PRES
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN BREEZY/WINDY CONDS...ESP INVOF CST. GUSTS
FM SSE DIRECTION TO 30 TO 40 MPH PSBL. HI TEMPS SUN RANGING FM THE
L/M50S NW TO THE L60S SE. LOWS SUN NGT RANGING THRU THE 50S...W/
READINGS LIKELY TO RISE AFT MDNGT. QPF AVGG 1/2 TO 1 INCH.

THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NNE OF THE REGION AT 12Z MON...WITH A
CDFNT PUSHING TWD/INTO OUR EXTRM WRN CNTIES BY 00Z TUE. AFTER LWR
CLOUDS AND PSBL FOG MON MRNG...SW WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE CDFNT
BECOME GUSTY...AND WILL HELP TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 70S UNDER A
PARTLY SUNNY SKY. FOR NOW...POPS AOB 14% ON MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST BY 12Z TUE. BNDRY THEN
STALLS OVR THE GULF STREAM TUE & WED IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF
S/W`S PROGGED TO DVLP THEN MOVE NE ALONG IT. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRS
(OF PACIFIC ORIGIN) OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION BUILDS S&E THRU
THE MID WEEK PRD. UPR LVL LOW AND TRAILING CDFRNT PROGGED TO DIVE
SE FROM THE GT LAKES THU WITH HIGH PRS BUILDING INTO THE ARA FRI.

GRIDS WILL INDICATE SLGHT CHC SHWRS WITH FROPA MONDAY NIGHT. COOLER
AS CAA SET IN BEHIND THE FRNT. LOWS M-U40S NWRN HALF 50-55 SERN
HALF. TUE THRU WED FCST DEPENDS ON HOW FAR N&W MSTR GETS FROM THE
DVLPNG LOW OFF THE SERN COAST. GFS HAS A TRACK A BIT FRTHR EAST
KEEPING THE PCPN CONFINED TO SERN CSTL AREAS BY LATE TUE...AND GNRLY
E OF I95 WED. ECMWF SLOWER WITH A DRY TUE...PCPN MOVG ACROSS SERN
CSTL AREAS TUE NIGHT THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA WED BEFORE
PULLING OUT TO SEAS WED NIGHT.

TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF WITH THE COASTAL LOW TUE & WED...BUT THNK
IT IS OVERDONE WRT THE DEEPENING OF THE LOW OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST
TURKEY DAY. WILL INDICATE 20-30 POP ACROSS SERN CSTL AREAS TUE. DRY
ELSEWHERE. HIGHS M50S-L60S. A GENERAL RAIN OVRSPRDS THE FA SE-NW
TUES NIGHT AND WED...THEN ENDS WED EVE AS THE LOW PULLS FRTHR
OFFSHORE. PCPN ALL LIQUID WITH THIS EVENT. LOWS TUE NIGHT M30S-M40S.
HIGHS WED M40S-L50S. PCPN ENDS WED EVE BEFORE THE COLD AIR ARRIVES.
LOWS AFTER THE RAIN ENDS FALL INTO THE U20S-L30S W OF THE
BAY...M-U30S SERN CSTL AREAS.

CLIPPER TYPE S/W DIVES SE THU. ENUF MSTR SEEN WITH THIS FTR FOR AT
LEAST SLGHT CHC DIURNAL SHWRS (PSBLY MIXED WITH IP???) THANKSGIVING
DAY. HIGHS 45-50. DRYING OUT THURS NIGHT AND FRI. LOWS U20S-M30S
XCPT 35-40 SERN CSTL AREAS. HIGHS FRI M-U40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE VA/NC BOARDER WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST DURING THE EVENING. THIS WILL CONTINUE A SOUTHERLY WIND
DIRECTION WHILE INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.

A MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL HELP FORM A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE SE US AS THE MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVES NE OUT OF THE GOMEX
ON SUN. THIS WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE MOISTURE AS A WARM FRONT
SURGES THROUGH THE AREA SUN NIGHT. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS(POSSIBLY
LOWER) DUE TO LOWERED CEILINGS AND REDUCED VIS DUE TO RAIN.
ALSO...WIND GUST TO 35KT MAY BE POSSIBLE MON MORNING AS THE SYSTEM
DEEPENS OVER THE AREA. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE OVER NE NC/SE VA.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA OVR SRN CSTL WTRS HAS EXPIRED AS SEAS DROPPED BLO 5 FT. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNG...EXPECT 2-3 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS WITH
LGT WINDS AS STRONG SFC HI PRES CENTERS OVR THE WTRS. THE HI
SLIDES FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS AFTN...WITH WINDS BCMG SLY AT 10-15 KT.
NEXT LO PRES SYSTM PUSHES NE TOWARDS THE OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
SUN/SUN NGT...WITH S/SE FLOW RAMPING UP OVR THE LOCAL WTRS AS THE
PRES GRADIENT INCREASES. SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUN NGT INTO MON
IN RESPONSE TO THIS...AND MAY CONTINUE UNTIL MON NGT WHEN THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRNT CROSSES THE AREA. GUSTS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE
OVR THE OCEAN AS WELL. WITH THIS BEING 4TH PERIOD WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW. WAVES OVR THE BAY WILL REACH 3-4 FT WITH SEAS
OVR CSTL WTRS UP TO 6-8 FT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED MONDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

RIC 76 1979
ORF 78 1983
SBY 78 1931
ECG 77 1983

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB/TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221812
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
112 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING...THEN
SLIDES OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH AND ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HI PRES (~1036MB) CENTERED OVR NC ATTM. TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO
THE M30S/L40S AS OF 10 AM...AFTER A (VERY) COLD START UNDER SKC
AND NR CALM WNDS W/ MOST LO TEMPS FM THE UPR TEENS TO THE M20S.
THE HI IS SLO TO WEAKEN/DRIFT OFF THE CST LATER TDA. LGT/VRB WNDS
BECOME SSW RESULTING IN MODERATION. SKY RMNS MNLY SKC THROUGH THIS
AFTN. HI TEMPS FM THE U40S N TO L50S FAR SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND THICKEN FM THE SW LATE TNGT
THROUGH MIDDAY SUN...AS GULF CST MOISTURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT LIFTS NE THROUGH THE SE CONUS. CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY SAT NGT WITH LOWS RANGING THRU THE 30S.

THE WARM FRONT WITH STRONG VERTICAL MOTION AND ASSOCIATED
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE WILL LIFT NE AND ACRS THE MDATLC RGN SUN
SUN NGT. HAVE POPS FOR RAIN INCREASING TO 30-50% SW 1/2 OF FA
DURING SUN AFTN...THEN TO 80-90% EVERYWHERE BETWEEN 00Z-06Z
MON...AND FM ABT 70% NE TO 40% SW BETWEEN 06Z-12Z MON. ADDED SLGT
CHC T FOR CSTL NE NC (AND SPC HAS SLGT CHC SVR). TIGHTENING PRES
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN BREEZY/WINDY CONDS...ESP INVOF CST. GUSTS
FM SSE DIRECTION TO 30 TO 40 MPH PSBL. HI TEMPS SUN RANGING FM THE
L/M50S NW TO THE L60S SE. LOWS SUN NGT RANGING THRU THE 50S...W/
READINGS LIKELY TO RISE AFT MDNGT. QPF AVGG 1/2 TO 1 INCH.

THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NNE OF THE REGION AT 12Z MON...WITH A
CDFNT PUSHING TWD/INTO OUR EXTRM WRN CNTIES BY 00Z TUE. AFTER LWR
CLOUDS AND PSBL FOG MON MRNG...SW WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE CDFNT
BECOME GUSTY...AND WILL HELP TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 70S UNDER A
PARTLY SUNNY SKY. FOR NOW...POPS AOB 14% ON MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST BY 12Z TUE. BNDRY THEN
STALLS OVR THE GULF STREAM TUE & WED IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF
S/W`S PROGGED TO DVLP THEN MOVE NE ALONG IT. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRS
(OF PACIFIC ORIGIN) OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION BUILDS S&E THRU
THE MID WEEK PRD. UPR LVL LOW AND TRAILING CDFRNT PROGGED TO DIVE
SE FROM THE GT LAKES THU WITH HIGH PRS BUILDING INTO THE ARA FRI.

GRIDS WILL INDICATE SLGHT CHC SHWRS WITH FROPA MONDAY NIGHT. COOLER
AS CAA SET IN BEHIND THE FRNT. LOWS M-U40S NWRN HALF 50-55 SERN
HALF. TUE THRU WED FCST DEPENDS ON HOW FAR N&W MSTR GETS FROM THE
DVLPNG LOW OFF THE SERN COAST. GFS HAS A TRACK A BIT FRTHR EAST
KEEPING THE PCPN CONFINED TO SERN CSTL AREAS BY LATE TUE...AND GNRLY
E OF I95 WED. ECMWF SLOWER WITH A DRY TUE...PCPN MOVG ACROSS SERN
CSTL AREAS TUE NIGHT THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA WED BEFORE
PULLING OUT TO SEAS WED NIGHT.

TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF WITH THE COASTAL LOW TUE & WED...BUT THNK
IT IS OVERDONE WRT THE DEEPENING OF THE LOW OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST
TURKEY DAY. WILL INDICATE 20-30 POP ACROSS SERN CSTL AREAS TUE. DRY
ELSEWHERE. HIGHS M50S-L60S. A GENERAL RAIN OVRSPRDS THE FA SE-NW
TUES NIGHT AND WED...THEN ENDS WED EVE AS THE LOW PULLS FRTHR
OFFSHORE. PCPN ALL LIQUID WITH THIS EVENT. LOWS TUE NIGHT M30S-M40S.
HIGHS WED M40S-L50S. PCPN ENDS WED EVE BEFORE THE COLD AIR ARRIVES.
LOWS AFTER THE RAIN ENDS FALL INTO THE U20S-L30S W OF THE
BAY...M-U30S SERN CSTL AREAS.

CLIPPER TYPE S/W DIVES SE THU. ENUF MSTR SEEN WITH THIS FTR FOR AT
LEAST SLGHT CHC DIURNAL SHWRS (PSBLY MIXED WITH IP???) THANKSGIVING
DAY. HIGHS 45-50. DRYING OUT THURS NIGHT AND FRI. LOWS U20S-M30S
XCPT 35-40 SERN CSTL AREAS. HIGHS FRI M-U40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE VA/NC BOARDER WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST DURING THE EVENING. THIS WILL CONTINUE A SOUTHERLY WIND
DIRECTION WHILE INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.

A MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL HELP FORM A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE SE US AS THE MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVES NE OUT OF THE GOMEX
ON SUN. THIS WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE MOISTURE AS A WARM FRONT
SURGES THROUGH THE AREA SUN NIGHT. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS(POSSIBLY
LOWER) DUE TO LOWERED CEILINGS AND REDUCED VIS DUE TO RAIN.
ALSO...WIND GUST TO 35KT MAY BE POSSIBLE MON MORNING AS THE SYSTEM
DEEPENS OVER THE AREA. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE OVER NE NC/SE VA.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA OVR SRN CSTL WTRS HAS EXPIRED AS SEAS DROPPED BLO 5 FT. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNG...EXPECT 2-3 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS WITH
LGT WINDS AS STRONG SFC HI PRES CENTERS OVR THE WTRS. THE HI
SLIDES FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS AFTN...WITH WINDS BCMG SLY AT 10-15 KT.
NEXT LO PRES SYSTM PUSHES NE TOWARDS THE OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
SUN/SUN NGT...WITH S/SE FLOW RAMPING UP OVR THE LOCAL WTRS AS THE
PRES GRADIENT INCREASES. SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUN NGT INTO MON
IN RESPONSE TO THIS...AND MAY CONTINUE UNTIL MON NGT WHEN THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRNT CROSSES THE AREA. GUSTS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE
OVR THE OCEAN AS WELL. WITH THIS BEING 4TH PERIOD WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW. WAVES OVR THE BAY WILL REACH 3-4 FT WITH SEAS
OVR CSTL WTRS UP TO 6-8 FT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED MONDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

RIC 76 1979
ORF 78 1983
SBY 78 1931
ECG 77 1983

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB/TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221812
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
112 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING...THEN
SLIDES OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH AND ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HI PRES (~1036MB) CENTERED OVR NC ATTM. TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO
THE M30S/L40S AS OF 10 AM...AFTER A (VERY) COLD START UNDER SKC
AND NR CALM WNDS W/ MOST LO TEMPS FM THE UPR TEENS TO THE M20S.
THE HI IS SLO TO WEAKEN/DRIFT OFF THE CST LATER TDA. LGT/VRB WNDS
BECOME SSW RESULTING IN MODERATION. SKY RMNS MNLY SKC THROUGH THIS
AFTN. HI TEMPS FM THE U40S N TO L50S FAR SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND THICKEN FM THE SW LATE TNGT
THROUGH MIDDAY SUN...AS GULF CST MOISTURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT LIFTS NE THROUGH THE SE CONUS. CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY SAT NGT WITH LOWS RANGING THRU THE 30S.

THE WARM FRONT WITH STRONG VERTICAL MOTION AND ASSOCIATED
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE WILL LIFT NE AND ACRS THE MDATLC RGN SUN
SUN NGT. HAVE POPS FOR RAIN INCREASING TO 30-50% SW 1/2 OF FA
DURING SUN AFTN...THEN TO 80-90% EVERYWHERE BETWEEN 00Z-06Z
MON...AND FM ABT 70% NE TO 40% SW BETWEEN 06Z-12Z MON. ADDED SLGT
CHC T FOR CSTL NE NC (AND SPC HAS SLGT CHC SVR). TIGHTENING PRES
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN BREEZY/WINDY CONDS...ESP INVOF CST. GUSTS
FM SSE DIRECTION TO 30 TO 40 MPH PSBL. HI TEMPS SUN RANGING FM THE
L/M50S NW TO THE L60S SE. LOWS SUN NGT RANGING THRU THE 50S...W/
READINGS LIKELY TO RISE AFT MDNGT. QPF AVGG 1/2 TO 1 INCH.

THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NNE OF THE REGION AT 12Z MON...WITH A
CDFNT PUSHING TWD/INTO OUR EXTRM WRN CNTIES BY 00Z TUE. AFTER LWR
CLOUDS AND PSBL FOG MON MRNG...SW WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE CDFNT
BECOME GUSTY...AND WILL HELP TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 70S UNDER A
PARTLY SUNNY SKY. FOR NOW...POPS AOB 14% ON MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST BY 12Z TUE. BNDRY THEN
STALLS OVR THE GULF STREAM TUE & WED IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF
S/W`S PROGGED TO DVLP THEN MOVE NE ALONG IT. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRS
(OF PACIFIC ORIGIN) OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION BUILDS S&E THRU
THE MID WEEK PRD. UPR LVL LOW AND TRAILING CDFRNT PROGGED TO DIVE
SE FROM THE GT LAKES THU WITH HIGH PRS BUILDING INTO THE ARA FRI.

GRIDS WILL INDICATE SLGHT CHC SHWRS WITH FROPA MONDAY NIGHT. COOLER
AS CAA SET IN BEHIND THE FRNT. LOWS M-U40S NWRN HALF 50-55 SERN
HALF. TUE THRU WED FCST DEPENDS ON HOW FAR N&W MSTR GETS FROM THE
DVLPNG LOW OFF THE SERN COAST. GFS HAS A TRACK A BIT FRTHR EAST
KEEPING THE PCPN CONFINED TO SERN CSTL AREAS BY LATE TUE...AND GNRLY
E OF I95 WED. ECMWF SLOWER WITH A DRY TUE...PCPN MOVG ACROSS SERN
CSTL AREAS TUE NIGHT THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA WED BEFORE
PULLING OUT TO SEAS WED NIGHT.

TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF WITH THE COASTAL LOW TUE & WED...BUT THNK
IT IS OVERDONE WRT THE DEEPENING OF THE LOW OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST
TURKEY DAY. WILL INDICATE 20-30 POP ACROSS SERN CSTL AREAS TUE. DRY
ELSEWHERE. HIGHS M50S-L60S. A GENERAL RAIN OVRSPRDS THE FA SE-NW
TUES NIGHT AND WED...THEN ENDS WED EVE AS THE LOW PULLS FRTHR
OFFSHORE. PCPN ALL LIQUID WITH THIS EVENT. LOWS TUE NIGHT M30S-M40S.
HIGHS WED M40S-L50S. PCPN ENDS WED EVE BEFORE THE COLD AIR ARRIVES.
LOWS AFTER THE RAIN ENDS FALL INTO THE U20S-L30S W OF THE
BAY...M-U30S SERN CSTL AREAS.

CLIPPER TYPE S/W DIVES SE THU. ENUF MSTR SEEN WITH THIS FTR FOR AT
LEAST SLGHT CHC DIURNAL SHWRS (PSBLY MIXED WITH IP???) THANKSGIVING
DAY. HIGHS 45-50. DRYING OUT THURS NIGHT AND FRI. LOWS U20S-M30S
XCPT 35-40 SERN CSTL AREAS. HIGHS FRI M-U40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE VA/NC BOARDER WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST DURING THE EVENING. THIS WILL CONTINUE A SOUTHERLY WIND
DIRECTION WHILE INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.

A MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL HELP FORM A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE SE US AS THE MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVES NE OUT OF THE GOMEX
ON SUN. THIS WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE MOISTURE AS A WARM FRONT
SURGES THROUGH THE AREA SUN NIGHT. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS(POSSIBLY
LOWER) DUE TO LOWERED CEILINGS AND REDUCED VIS DUE TO RAIN.
ALSO...WIND GUST TO 35KT MAY BE POSSIBLE MON MORNING AS THE SYSTEM
DEEPENS OVER THE AREA. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE OVER NE NC/SE VA.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA OVR SRN CSTL WTRS HAS EXPIRED AS SEAS DROPPED BLO 5 FT. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNG...EXPECT 2-3 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS WITH
LGT WINDS AS STRONG SFC HI PRES CENTERS OVR THE WTRS. THE HI
SLIDES FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS AFTN...WITH WINDS BCMG SLY AT 10-15 KT.
NEXT LO PRES SYSTM PUSHES NE TOWARDS THE OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
SUN/SUN NGT...WITH S/SE FLOW RAMPING UP OVR THE LOCAL WTRS AS THE
PRES GRADIENT INCREASES. SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUN NGT INTO MON
IN RESPONSE TO THIS...AND MAY CONTINUE UNTIL MON NGT WHEN THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRNT CROSSES THE AREA. GUSTS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE
OVR THE OCEAN AS WELL. WITH THIS BEING 4TH PERIOD WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW. WAVES OVR THE BAY WILL REACH 3-4 FT WITH SEAS
OVR CSTL WTRS UP TO 6-8 FT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED MONDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

RIC 76 1979
ORF 78 1983
SBY 78 1931
ECG 77 1983

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB/TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KRNK 221750
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1250 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ONE MORE DAY OF FAIR WEATHER TO THE REGION
AS WE START THE WEEKEND. THEN...A STORM SYSTEM MOVING NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT INTO THE
APPALACHIANS AND CENTRAL MID ATLANTIC REGION...BRINGING WET AND
WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM BEFORE A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY...RETURNING TEMPERATURES TO BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1130 AM EST SATURDAY...
RAISED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES
THIS AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER FOR LATEST TRENDS.


AS OF 950 AM EST SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR REGION THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE
EASTWARD TO OUR NORTH AROUND THE HIGH CENTER. THE HRRR...NAM AND
HIRESW-ARW KEEP MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA WITH THIS FEATURE. INCREASED CLOUD COVER IN THE
NORTHWEST FOR HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL BE
HOLDING OFF UNTIL TONIGHT AS DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF APPROACHING WARM FRONT. MADE SOME MINOR
CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD WITH CURRENT FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
NOW...BUT WILL MONITOR FOR ANY CHANGES LATER THIS MORNING. ENJOY
YOUR SATURDAY !

AS OF 330 AM EST SATURDAY...

ONE MORE QUIET DAY ON TAP AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION SLIDES OFF
TO OUR EAST TODAY. LOW CLOUDS TO OUR WEST LOOK TO ROTATE AROUND THE
BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH...WHICH WILL KEEP THEM JUST WEST AND NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS
OVERSPREADING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...RESULTING IN A FAIR WEATHER DAY
WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE. SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL BE
HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATE TONIGHT AS DEEP SWLY FLOW SETS UP IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF APPROACHING WARM FRONT...AND CLOUDS MOVE IN
EN MASSE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AND WITH THE CLOUDS COMES THE
INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN...ENTERING THE FORECAST FROM THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT WILL BE RAMPING UP QUICKLY AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SATURDAY...

THE PRIMARY FOCUS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON A VIGOROUS
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE SLATED TO TRAVERSE THE REGION FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUN AFTERNOON/SUN NIGHT. THE SHORT WAVE
WILL EJECT IN ADVANCE OF A BROADER TROUGH PROGGED TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. SUN-MON. AS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
TO DEVELOP SUN...THE LEADING SHORT WAVE WILL TAKE ON A STRONG
NEGATIVE TILT AND ROTATE OUT OF THE ARKLATEX/MID-SOUTH REGION
TOWARD THE OH VALLEY SUN EVENING/OVERNIGHT. THE ANTECEDENT AIR
MASS ACROSS THE RNK CWA WILL BE DRY/COOL FROM THE REMNANT ARCTIC
HIGH HAVING DRIFTED OFFSHORE IN A FAVORABLE IN-SITU WEDGE
POSITION. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH SUN
AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN OVERRUNNING THE WARM FRONT IN AN
AREA OF SUBSTANTIAL ISENTROPIC LIFT. AS USUAL WITH THESE TYPE OF
SITUATIONS...THE WEDGE LEADS TO A STABLE ENVIRONMENT AS THE MAIN
DYNAMICS PASS THROUGH THE REGION AND THIS IS NO EXCEPTION.

CONCERNS ARISE...HOWEVER...AS A 70-80KT LLJ TRAVERSES THE AREA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE WARM FRONT/UPPER TROUGH SUN AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. SPC HAS PUSHED THE GENERAL THUNDER AREA UP TOWARD THE
BLUE RIDGE...AND A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK APPROACHING THE FAR SE
COUNTIES...NAMELY HALIFAX/CASWELL. FEEL THAT THIS WILL BE ANOTHER
SITUATION WHERE THE COOL BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN DECOUPLED FROM
THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES. MODEL
ADVERTISED INSTABILITY AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING NEAR ZERO
INSTABILITY...POSITIVE LIS...AND ZERO CAPE...BUT SUBSTANTIAL SHEAR
WITH STRONGLY CURVED HODOGRAPHS AND 30+KTS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION. A TYPICAL HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT.
HOWEVER...WITH CAPE NEAR ZERO...DO NOT FEEL THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
SUPPORT FOR TSRA AT THIS POINT AND HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAVE IT OUT
OF THE GRIDS IN COORDINATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORS.

THE GREATER CONCERN THROUGH THE SUN TIME FRAME WILL BE AS THE
STRONG LLJ TRAVERSES THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW NC/SW VA/SE WV. THIS
IS FAIRLY CLASSICAL SETUP FOR STRONG TO HIGH WINDS IN THE
SMYTH/TAZEWELL/MERCER COUNTY REGION. CURRENT ADVERTISED WIND
SPEEDS DO NOT SUPPORT A HIGH WIND WATCH AT THIS POINT WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 22KTS AND GUSTS TO AROUND 38KTS. A WIND
ADVISORY SEEMS QUITE PROBABLE THOUGH AS WE MOVE CLOSER TO THE
EVENT.

WHILE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED SUN
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS...MAINLY IN THE 18Z-06Z TIME
FRAME...OVERALL QPF REMAIN MOSTLY 1 INCH OR LESS FOR THE ENTIRE
CWA. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD FALL ACROSS UPSLOPE SOUTHEAST
FACING SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH A STRONG S-SE WIND THROUGH
THE BULK OF THE RAIN EVENT.

MONDAY...THE WARM FRONT MOVES TO THE NORTH AND A VERY DEEP 966MB SFC
LOW PRESSURE AREA CRANKS UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AS THE VIGOROUS
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THAT REGION AND PHASES
WITH THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY EAST. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A STRONG SW SFC AND BOUNDARY LOW FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION. THE
CWA WILL BE SOLIDLY IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR SURE. TEMPERATURES MAY
ACTUALLY BEGIN TO RISE OVERNIGHT SUN NIGHT WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL
WAA. WITH 850MB TEMPS +10C TO EVEN +12C ACROSS PARTS OF THE CWA
AND THE STRONG SW FLOW...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
WARM IN THE 60S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO THE 70S EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...WITH EVEN 50S IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. COMPARED TO THE
BITTER COLD OF THE PAST WEEK...IT WILL FEEL LIKE SUMMER. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A PASSING SHOWER IN THE SUMMERLIKE AIR
MASS...BUT OTHER THAN THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW...THE SOUNDINGS
SHOW A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP...SO SHOWERS WOULD MOSTLY LIKELY BE
CONFINED TO PASSING MDT CU CAPABLE OF A SPRINKLE...WHICH IS NOT
LIKELY.

WE BEGIN TO RETURN TO REALITY TUESDAY AS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN U.S. IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING
SW U.S. UPPER RIDGE. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST WITH A GRADUAL COOL DOWN EXPECTED THROUGH THE
THANKSGIVING WEEK. MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES TUE SHOULD BE A GOOD 20-30
DEGREES COOLER THAN MON...BUT NOTHING CLOSE TO OUR RECENT COLD
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EST SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO PROGRESS
FROM NEAR JAMES BAY NORTHEAST TOWARDS GREENLAND. THE SYSTEMS
TRAILING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TO NEAR THE
EAST COAT OF THE U.S. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO OFFER VARIOUS
SOLUTIONS REGARDING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS PROGGED TO HEAD
NORTH ALONG THIS FRONT...FROM THE GULF COAST STATES TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. GENERAL CONSENSUS IS NOW
THAT THIS WILL OCCUR...WITH THE ECMWF PULLING THE MOISTURE
FARTHEST BACK INLAND AND TO THE WEST...WHILE THE CANADIAN IS THE
DRIEST. THE GFS SEEMS TO BE A REASONABLE COMPROMISE AT THIS POINT.
AT ANY RATE...ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL BUCKLE THE FRONT
FROM TUE...AT THAT POINT LYING ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS...AND ALLOW
THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE PIEDMONT AT A
MINIMUM...POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST WED AS THE ALLEGHANY FRONT.
THUS...HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE POPS FOR WED ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA...APPROACHING LIKELY VALUES IN FAR EASTERN AREAS. ENOUGH
COLDER AIR WILL HAVE MADE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION FOR SOME TYPE OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN WESTERN AREAS. HOWEVER...THE WESTERN AREAS
ARE THE AREAS LEAST LIKELY TO RECEIVE PCPN WITH THIS EVENT...SO
ANY WINTER PCPN...PRIMARILY SNOW...WOULD BE MINOR AT BEST AND DOES
NOT APPEAR TO AROUSE ANY WINTER WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS POINT.
FOR AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE FORM OF RAIN THROUGHOUT THE EVENT. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...THIS COASTAL WAVE WILL BE NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
AND NO LONGER BE A FACTOR IN OUR FORECAST.

WHAT WILL BECOME A FACTOR IS YET ANOTHER DEEPENING UPPER LOW
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GUIDANCE IS OFFERING THIS ONE TO TAKE A
FARTHER SOUTH TRACK THAN ITS PREDECESSOR...DEEPEN MORE...AND FUNNEL
A STRONGER SURGE OF COLDER AIR INTO OUR REGION. AFTER AN INITIAL
ROUND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION ON
THURSDAY...ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE PREFERRED AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL TREND LOWER EACH DAY...WITH THE
BIGGEST DROP BEING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW TO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
THANKSGIVING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1250 PM EST SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. LOW
CLOUDS UPSTREAM ARE FORECAST TO ROTATE AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH TO OUR WEST AND NORTH. SOME AFTERNOON CU MAY BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. MODEL UPPER LEVEL RH FIELDS
CORRELATE WELL WITH CIRRUS SEEN STREAMING IN OUR DIRECTION ON
SATELLITE LOOP. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

LIGHT WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH AND MORE
GUSTY ON SUNDAY. WINDS AT BLF MAY STAY UP A BIT TONIGHT AS THE
INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AND WARM FRONT START TO BE
FELT.

TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD MOISTURE WILL START TO ENCROACH
FROM THE SOUTH. SCT TO BKN MVFR CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY
MORNING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.


EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING...AND RAIN WITH MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
ALSO...STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS LATER ON SUNDAY MAY LEAD TO
LLWS...ESPECIALLY THE BLF AREA. A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR DURING
MONDAY OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A DRY SLOT DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE
EXITING FRONT FROM SUNDAY AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY LOOK TO FEATURE QUITE A BIT OF WIND. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK...EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS
EASTERN WV/FAR SW VA...BUT MOSTLY VFR ELSEWHERE WITH A COLDER NW
FLOW.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 215 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WILL BE OUT
OF SERVICE UNTIL PARTS ARRIVE TO REPLACE THE SENSOR. UNTIL THEN
THE VISIBILITY WILL ONLY BE REPORTED WHEN THE CONTROL TOWER IS
STAFFED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...KK/MBS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...DS/RAB
AVIATION...KK/MBS
EQUIPMENT...RAB



000
FXUS61 KRNK 221750
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1250 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ONE MORE DAY OF FAIR WEATHER TO THE REGION
AS WE START THE WEEKEND. THEN...A STORM SYSTEM MOVING NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT INTO THE
APPALACHIANS AND CENTRAL MID ATLANTIC REGION...BRINGING WET AND
WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM BEFORE A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY...RETURNING TEMPERATURES TO BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1130 AM EST SATURDAY...
RAISED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES
THIS AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER FOR LATEST TRENDS.


AS OF 950 AM EST SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR REGION THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE
EASTWARD TO OUR NORTH AROUND THE HIGH CENTER. THE HRRR...NAM AND
HIRESW-ARW KEEP MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA WITH THIS FEATURE. INCREASED CLOUD COVER IN THE
NORTHWEST FOR HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL BE
HOLDING OFF UNTIL TONIGHT AS DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF APPROACHING WARM FRONT. MADE SOME MINOR
CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD WITH CURRENT FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
NOW...BUT WILL MONITOR FOR ANY CHANGES LATER THIS MORNING. ENJOY
YOUR SATURDAY !

AS OF 330 AM EST SATURDAY...

ONE MORE QUIET DAY ON TAP AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION SLIDES OFF
TO OUR EAST TODAY. LOW CLOUDS TO OUR WEST LOOK TO ROTATE AROUND THE
BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH...WHICH WILL KEEP THEM JUST WEST AND NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS
OVERSPREADING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...RESULTING IN A FAIR WEATHER DAY
WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE. SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL BE
HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATE TONIGHT AS DEEP SWLY FLOW SETS UP IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF APPROACHING WARM FRONT...AND CLOUDS MOVE IN
EN MASSE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AND WITH THE CLOUDS COMES THE
INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN...ENTERING THE FORECAST FROM THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT WILL BE RAMPING UP QUICKLY AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SATURDAY...

THE PRIMARY FOCUS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON A VIGOROUS
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE SLATED TO TRAVERSE THE REGION FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUN AFTERNOON/SUN NIGHT. THE SHORT WAVE
WILL EJECT IN ADVANCE OF A BROADER TROUGH PROGGED TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. SUN-MON. AS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
TO DEVELOP SUN...THE LEADING SHORT WAVE WILL TAKE ON A STRONG
NEGATIVE TILT AND ROTATE OUT OF THE ARKLATEX/MID-SOUTH REGION
TOWARD THE OH VALLEY SUN EVENING/OVERNIGHT. THE ANTECEDENT AIR
MASS ACROSS THE RNK CWA WILL BE DRY/COOL FROM THE REMNANT ARCTIC
HIGH HAVING DRIFTED OFFSHORE IN A FAVORABLE IN-SITU WEDGE
POSITION. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH SUN
AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN OVERRUNNING THE WARM FRONT IN AN
AREA OF SUBSTANTIAL ISENTROPIC LIFT. AS USUAL WITH THESE TYPE OF
SITUATIONS...THE WEDGE LEADS TO A STABLE ENVIRONMENT AS THE MAIN
DYNAMICS PASS THROUGH THE REGION AND THIS IS NO EXCEPTION.

CONCERNS ARISE...HOWEVER...AS A 70-80KT LLJ TRAVERSES THE AREA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE WARM FRONT/UPPER TROUGH SUN AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. SPC HAS PUSHED THE GENERAL THUNDER AREA UP TOWARD THE
BLUE RIDGE...AND A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK APPROACHING THE FAR SE
COUNTIES...NAMELY HALIFAX/CASWELL. FEEL THAT THIS WILL BE ANOTHER
SITUATION WHERE THE COOL BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN DECOUPLED FROM
THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES. MODEL
ADVERTISED INSTABILITY AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING NEAR ZERO
INSTABILITY...POSITIVE LIS...AND ZERO CAPE...BUT SUBSTANTIAL SHEAR
WITH STRONGLY CURVED HODOGRAPHS AND 30+KTS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION. A TYPICAL HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT.
HOWEVER...WITH CAPE NEAR ZERO...DO NOT FEEL THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
SUPPORT FOR TSRA AT THIS POINT AND HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAVE IT OUT
OF THE GRIDS IN COORDINATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORS.

THE GREATER CONCERN THROUGH THE SUN TIME FRAME WILL BE AS THE
STRONG LLJ TRAVERSES THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW NC/SW VA/SE WV. THIS
IS FAIRLY CLASSICAL SETUP FOR STRONG TO HIGH WINDS IN THE
SMYTH/TAZEWELL/MERCER COUNTY REGION. CURRENT ADVERTISED WIND
SPEEDS DO NOT SUPPORT A HIGH WIND WATCH AT THIS POINT WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 22KTS AND GUSTS TO AROUND 38KTS. A WIND
ADVISORY SEEMS QUITE PROBABLE THOUGH AS WE MOVE CLOSER TO THE
EVENT.

WHILE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED SUN
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS...MAINLY IN THE 18Z-06Z TIME
FRAME...OVERALL QPF REMAIN MOSTLY 1 INCH OR LESS FOR THE ENTIRE
CWA. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD FALL ACROSS UPSLOPE SOUTHEAST
FACING SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH A STRONG S-SE WIND THROUGH
THE BULK OF THE RAIN EVENT.

MONDAY...THE WARM FRONT MOVES TO THE NORTH AND A VERY DEEP 966MB SFC
LOW PRESSURE AREA CRANKS UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AS THE VIGOROUS
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THAT REGION AND PHASES
WITH THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY EAST. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A STRONG SW SFC AND BOUNDARY LOW FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION. THE
CWA WILL BE SOLIDLY IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR SURE. TEMPERATURES MAY
ACTUALLY BEGIN TO RISE OVERNIGHT SUN NIGHT WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL
WAA. WITH 850MB TEMPS +10C TO EVEN +12C ACROSS PARTS OF THE CWA
AND THE STRONG SW FLOW...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
WARM IN THE 60S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO THE 70S EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...WITH EVEN 50S IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. COMPARED TO THE
BITTER COLD OF THE PAST WEEK...IT WILL FEEL LIKE SUMMER. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A PASSING SHOWER IN THE SUMMERLIKE AIR
MASS...BUT OTHER THAN THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW...THE SOUNDINGS
SHOW A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP...SO SHOWERS WOULD MOSTLY LIKELY BE
CONFINED TO PASSING MDT CU CAPABLE OF A SPRINKLE...WHICH IS NOT
LIKELY.

WE BEGIN TO RETURN TO REALITY TUESDAY AS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN U.S. IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING
SW U.S. UPPER RIDGE. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST WITH A GRADUAL COOL DOWN EXPECTED THROUGH THE
THANKSGIVING WEEK. MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES TUE SHOULD BE A GOOD 20-30
DEGREES COOLER THAN MON...BUT NOTHING CLOSE TO OUR RECENT COLD
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EST SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO PROGRESS
FROM NEAR JAMES BAY NORTHEAST TOWARDS GREENLAND. THE SYSTEMS
TRAILING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TO NEAR THE
EAST COAT OF THE U.S. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO OFFER VARIOUS
SOLUTIONS REGARDING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS PROGGED TO HEAD
NORTH ALONG THIS FRONT...FROM THE GULF COAST STATES TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. GENERAL CONSENSUS IS NOW
THAT THIS WILL OCCUR...WITH THE ECMWF PULLING THE MOISTURE
FARTHEST BACK INLAND AND TO THE WEST...WHILE THE CANADIAN IS THE
DRIEST. THE GFS SEEMS TO BE A REASONABLE COMPROMISE AT THIS POINT.
AT ANY RATE...ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL BUCKLE THE FRONT
FROM TUE...AT THAT POINT LYING ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS...AND ALLOW
THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE PIEDMONT AT A
MINIMUM...POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST WED AS THE ALLEGHANY FRONT.
THUS...HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE POPS FOR WED ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA...APPROACHING LIKELY VALUES IN FAR EASTERN AREAS. ENOUGH
COLDER AIR WILL HAVE MADE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION FOR SOME TYPE OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN WESTERN AREAS. HOWEVER...THE WESTERN AREAS
ARE THE AREAS LEAST LIKELY TO RECEIVE PCPN WITH THIS EVENT...SO
ANY WINTER PCPN...PRIMARILY SNOW...WOULD BE MINOR AT BEST AND DOES
NOT APPEAR TO AROUSE ANY WINTER WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS POINT.
FOR AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE FORM OF RAIN THROUGHOUT THE EVENT. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...THIS COASTAL WAVE WILL BE NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
AND NO LONGER BE A FACTOR IN OUR FORECAST.

WHAT WILL BECOME A FACTOR IS YET ANOTHER DEEPENING UPPER LOW
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GUIDANCE IS OFFERING THIS ONE TO TAKE A
FARTHER SOUTH TRACK THAN ITS PREDECESSOR...DEEPEN MORE...AND FUNNEL
A STRONGER SURGE OF COLDER AIR INTO OUR REGION. AFTER AN INITIAL
ROUND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION ON
THURSDAY...ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE PREFERRED AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL TREND LOWER EACH DAY...WITH THE
BIGGEST DROP BEING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW TO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
THANKSGIVING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1250 PM EST SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. LOW
CLOUDS UPSTREAM ARE FORECAST TO ROTATE AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH TO OUR WEST AND NORTH. SOME AFTERNOON CU MAY BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. MODEL UPPER LEVEL RH FIELDS
CORRELATE WELL WITH CIRRUS SEEN STREAMING IN OUR DIRECTION ON
SATELLITE LOOP. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

LIGHT WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH AND MORE
GUSTY ON SUNDAY. WINDS AT BLF MAY STAY UP A BIT TONIGHT AS THE
INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AND WARM FRONT START TO BE
FELT.

TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD MOISTURE WILL START TO ENCROACH
FROM THE SOUTH. SCT TO BKN MVFR CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY
MORNING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.


EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING...AND RAIN WITH MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
ALSO...STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS LATER ON SUNDAY MAY LEAD TO
LLWS...ESPECIALLY THE BLF AREA. A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR DURING
MONDAY OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A DRY SLOT DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE
EXITING FRONT FROM SUNDAY AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY LOOK TO FEATURE QUITE A BIT OF WIND. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK...EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS
EASTERN WV/FAR SW VA...BUT MOSTLY VFR ELSEWHERE WITH A COLDER NW
FLOW.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 215 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WILL BE OUT
OF SERVICE UNTIL PARTS ARRIVE TO REPLACE THE SENSOR. UNTIL THEN
THE VISIBILITY WILL ONLY BE REPORTED WHEN THE CONTROL TOWER IS
STAFFED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...KK/MBS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...DS/RAB
AVIATION...KK/MBS
EQUIPMENT...RAB



000
FXUS61 KRNK 221750
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1250 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ONE MORE DAY OF FAIR WEATHER TO THE REGION
AS WE START THE WEEKEND. THEN...A STORM SYSTEM MOVING NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT INTO THE
APPALACHIANS AND CENTRAL MID ATLANTIC REGION...BRINGING WET AND
WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM BEFORE A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY...RETURNING TEMPERATURES TO BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1130 AM EST SATURDAY...
RAISED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES
THIS AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER FOR LATEST TRENDS.


AS OF 950 AM EST SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR REGION THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE
EASTWARD TO OUR NORTH AROUND THE HIGH CENTER. THE HRRR...NAM AND
HIRESW-ARW KEEP MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA WITH THIS FEATURE. INCREASED CLOUD COVER IN THE
NORTHWEST FOR HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL BE
HOLDING OFF UNTIL TONIGHT AS DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF APPROACHING WARM FRONT. MADE SOME MINOR
CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD WITH CURRENT FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
NOW...BUT WILL MONITOR FOR ANY CHANGES LATER THIS MORNING. ENJOY
YOUR SATURDAY !

AS OF 330 AM EST SATURDAY...

ONE MORE QUIET DAY ON TAP AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION SLIDES OFF
TO OUR EAST TODAY. LOW CLOUDS TO OUR WEST LOOK TO ROTATE AROUND THE
BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH...WHICH WILL KEEP THEM JUST WEST AND NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS
OVERSPREADING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...RESULTING IN A FAIR WEATHER DAY
WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE. SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL BE
HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATE TONIGHT AS DEEP SWLY FLOW SETS UP IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF APPROACHING WARM FRONT...AND CLOUDS MOVE IN
EN MASSE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AND WITH THE CLOUDS COMES THE
INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN...ENTERING THE FORECAST FROM THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT WILL BE RAMPING UP QUICKLY AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SATURDAY...

THE PRIMARY FOCUS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON A VIGOROUS
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE SLATED TO TRAVERSE THE REGION FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUN AFTERNOON/SUN NIGHT. THE SHORT WAVE
WILL EJECT IN ADVANCE OF A BROADER TROUGH PROGGED TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. SUN-MON. AS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
TO DEVELOP SUN...THE LEADING SHORT WAVE WILL TAKE ON A STRONG
NEGATIVE TILT AND ROTATE OUT OF THE ARKLATEX/MID-SOUTH REGION
TOWARD THE OH VALLEY SUN EVENING/OVERNIGHT. THE ANTECEDENT AIR
MASS ACROSS THE RNK CWA WILL BE DRY/COOL FROM THE REMNANT ARCTIC
HIGH HAVING DRIFTED OFFSHORE IN A FAVORABLE IN-SITU WEDGE
POSITION. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH SUN
AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN OVERRUNNING THE WARM FRONT IN AN
AREA OF SUBSTANTIAL ISENTROPIC LIFT. AS USUAL WITH THESE TYPE OF
SITUATIONS...THE WEDGE LEADS TO A STABLE ENVIRONMENT AS THE MAIN
DYNAMICS PASS THROUGH THE REGION AND THIS IS NO EXCEPTION.

CONCERNS ARISE...HOWEVER...AS A 70-80KT LLJ TRAVERSES THE AREA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE WARM FRONT/UPPER TROUGH SUN AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. SPC HAS PUSHED THE GENERAL THUNDER AREA UP TOWARD THE
BLUE RIDGE...AND A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK APPROACHING THE FAR SE
COUNTIES...NAMELY HALIFAX/CASWELL. FEEL THAT THIS WILL BE ANOTHER
SITUATION WHERE THE COOL BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN DECOUPLED FROM
THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES. MODEL
ADVERTISED INSTABILITY AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING NEAR ZERO
INSTABILITY...POSITIVE LIS...AND ZERO CAPE...BUT SUBSTANTIAL SHEAR
WITH STRONGLY CURVED HODOGRAPHS AND 30+KTS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION. A TYPICAL HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT.
HOWEVER...WITH CAPE NEAR ZERO...DO NOT FEEL THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
SUPPORT FOR TSRA AT THIS POINT AND HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAVE IT OUT
OF THE GRIDS IN COORDINATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORS.

THE GREATER CONCERN THROUGH THE SUN TIME FRAME WILL BE AS THE
STRONG LLJ TRAVERSES THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW NC/SW VA/SE WV. THIS
IS FAIRLY CLASSICAL SETUP FOR STRONG TO HIGH WINDS IN THE
SMYTH/TAZEWELL/MERCER COUNTY REGION. CURRENT ADVERTISED WIND
SPEEDS DO NOT SUPPORT A HIGH WIND WATCH AT THIS POINT WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 22KTS AND GUSTS TO AROUND 38KTS. A WIND
ADVISORY SEEMS QUITE PROBABLE THOUGH AS WE MOVE CLOSER TO THE
EVENT.

WHILE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED SUN
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS...MAINLY IN THE 18Z-06Z TIME
FRAME...OVERALL QPF REMAIN MOSTLY 1 INCH OR LESS FOR THE ENTIRE
CWA. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD FALL ACROSS UPSLOPE SOUTHEAST
FACING SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH A STRONG S-SE WIND THROUGH
THE BULK OF THE RAIN EVENT.

MONDAY...THE WARM FRONT MOVES TO THE NORTH AND A VERY DEEP 966MB SFC
LOW PRESSURE AREA CRANKS UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AS THE VIGOROUS
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THAT REGION AND PHASES
WITH THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY EAST. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A STRONG SW SFC AND BOUNDARY LOW FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION. THE
CWA WILL BE SOLIDLY IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR SURE. TEMPERATURES MAY
ACTUALLY BEGIN TO RISE OVERNIGHT SUN NIGHT WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL
WAA. WITH 850MB TEMPS +10C TO EVEN +12C ACROSS PARTS OF THE CWA
AND THE STRONG SW FLOW...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
WARM IN THE 60S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO THE 70S EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...WITH EVEN 50S IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. COMPARED TO THE
BITTER COLD OF THE PAST WEEK...IT WILL FEEL LIKE SUMMER. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A PASSING SHOWER IN THE SUMMERLIKE AIR
MASS...BUT OTHER THAN THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW...THE SOUNDINGS
SHOW A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP...SO SHOWERS WOULD MOSTLY LIKELY BE
CONFINED TO PASSING MDT CU CAPABLE OF A SPRINKLE...WHICH IS NOT
LIKELY.

WE BEGIN TO RETURN TO REALITY TUESDAY AS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN U.S. IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING
SW U.S. UPPER RIDGE. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST WITH A GRADUAL COOL DOWN EXPECTED THROUGH THE
THANKSGIVING WEEK. MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES TUE SHOULD BE A GOOD 20-30
DEGREES COOLER THAN MON...BUT NOTHING CLOSE TO OUR RECENT COLD
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EST SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO PROGRESS
FROM NEAR JAMES BAY NORTHEAST TOWARDS GREENLAND. THE SYSTEMS
TRAILING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TO NEAR THE
EAST COAT OF THE U.S. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO OFFER VARIOUS
SOLUTIONS REGARDING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS PROGGED TO HEAD
NORTH ALONG THIS FRONT...FROM THE GULF COAST STATES TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. GENERAL CONSENSUS IS NOW
THAT THIS WILL OCCUR...WITH THE ECMWF PULLING THE MOISTURE
FARTHEST BACK INLAND AND TO THE WEST...WHILE THE CANADIAN IS THE
DRIEST. THE GFS SEEMS TO BE A REASONABLE COMPROMISE AT THIS POINT.
AT ANY RATE...ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL BUCKLE THE FRONT
FROM TUE...AT THAT POINT LYING ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS...AND ALLOW
THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE PIEDMONT AT A
MINIMUM...POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST WED AS THE ALLEGHANY FRONT.
THUS...HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE POPS FOR WED ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA...APPROACHING LIKELY VALUES IN FAR EASTERN AREAS. ENOUGH
COLDER AIR WILL HAVE MADE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION FOR SOME TYPE OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN WESTERN AREAS. HOWEVER...THE WESTERN AREAS
ARE THE AREAS LEAST LIKELY TO RECEIVE PCPN WITH THIS EVENT...SO
ANY WINTER PCPN...PRIMARILY SNOW...WOULD BE MINOR AT BEST AND DOES
NOT APPEAR TO AROUSE ANY WINTER WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS POINT.
FOR AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE FORM OF RAIN THROUGHOUT THE EVENT. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...THIS COASTAL WAVE WILL BE NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
AND NO LONGER BE A FACTOR IN OUR FORECAST.

WHAT WILL BECOME A FACTOR IS YET ANOTHER DEEPENING UPPER LOW
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GUIDANCE IS OFFERING THIS ONE TO TAKE A
FARTHER SOUTH TRACK THAN ITS PREDECESSOR...DEEPEN MORE...AND FUNNEL
A STRONGER SURGE OF COLDER AIR INTO OUR REGION. AFTER AN INITIAL
ROUND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION ON
THURSDAY...ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE PREFERRED AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL TREND LOWER EACH DAY...WITH THE
BIGGEST DROP BEING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW TO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
THANKSGIVING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1250 PM EST SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. LOW
CLOUDS UPSTREAM ARE FORECAST TO ROTATE AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH TO OUR WEST AND NORTH. SOME AFTERNOON CU MAY BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. MODEL UPPER LEVEL RH FIELDS
CORRELATE WELL WITH CIRRUS SEEN STREAMING IN OUR DIRECTION ON
SATELLITE LOOP. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

LIGHT WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH AND MORE
GUSTY ON SUNDAY. WINDS AT BLF MAY STAY UP A BIT TONIGHT AS THE
INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AND WARM FRONT START TO BE
FELT.

TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD MOISTURE WILL START TO ENCROACH
FROM THE SOUTH. SCT TO BKN MVFR CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY
MORNING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.


EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING...AND RAIN WITH MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
ALSO...STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS LATER ON SUNDAY MAY LEAD TO
LLWS...ESPECIALLY THE BLF AREA. A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR DURING
MONDAY OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A DRY SLOT DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE
EXITING FRONT FROM SUNDAY AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY LOOK TO FEATURE QUITE A BIT OF WIND. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK...EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS
EASTERN WV/FAR SW VA...BUT MOSTLY VFR ELSEWHERE WITH A COLDER NW
FLOW.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 215 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WILL BE OUT
OF SERVICE UNTIL PARTS ARRIVE TO REPLACE THE SENSOR. UNTIL THEN
THE VISIBILITY WILL ONLY BE REPORTED WHEN THE CONTROL TOWER IS
STAFFED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...KK/MBS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...DS/RAB
AVIATION...KK/MBS
EQUIPMENT...RAB



000
FXUS61 KRNK 221750
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1250 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ONE MORE DAY OF FAIR WEATHER TO THE REGION
AS WE START THE WEEKEND. THEN...A STORM SYSTEM MOVING NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT INTO THE
APPALACHIANS AND CENTRAL MID ATLANTIC REGION...BRINGING WET AND
WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM BEFORE A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY...RETURNING TEMPERATURES TO BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1130 AM EST SATURDAY...
RAISED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES
THIS AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER FOR LATEST TRENDS.


AS OF 950 AM EST SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR REGION THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE
EASTWARD TO OUR NORTH AROUND THE HIGH CENTER. THE HRRR...NAM AND
HIRESW-ARW KEEP MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA WITH THIS FEATURE. INCREASED CLOUD COVER IN THE
NORTHWEST FOR HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL BE
HOLDING OFF UNTIL TONIGHT AS DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF APPROACHING WARM FRONT. MADE SOME MINOR
CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD WITH CURRENT FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
NOW...BUT WILL MONITOR FOR ANY CHANGES LATER THIS MORNING. ENJOY
YOUR SATURDAY !

AS OF 330 AM EST SATURDAY...

ONE MORE QUIET DAY ON TAP AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION SLIDES OFF
TO OUR EAST TODAY. LOW CLOUDS TO OUR WEST LOOK TO ROTATE AROUND THE
BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH...WHICH WILL KEEP THEM JUST WEST AND NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS
OVERSPREADING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...RESULTING IN A FAIR WEATHER DAY
WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE. SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL BE
HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATE TONIGHT AS DEEP SWLY FLOW SETS UP IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF APPROACHING WARM FRONT...AND CLOUDS MOVE IN
EN MASSE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AND WITH THE CLOUDS COMES THE
INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN...ENTERING THE FORECAST FROM THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT WILL BE RAMPING UP QUICKLY AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SATURDAY...

THE PRIMARY FOCUS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON A VIGOROUS
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE SLATED TO TRAVERSE THE REGION FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUN AFTERNOON/SUN NIGHT. THE SHORT WAVE
WILL EJECT IN ADVANCE OF A BROADER TROUGH PROGGED TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. SUN-MON. AS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
TO DEVELOP SUN...THE LEADING SHORT WAVE WILL TAKE ON A STRONG
NEGATIVE TILT AND ROTATE OUT OF THE ARKLATEX/MID-SOUTH REGION
TOWARD THE OH VALLEY SUN EVENING/OVERNIGHT. THE ANTECEDENT AIR
MASS ACROSS THE RNK CWA WILL BE DRY/COOL FROM THE REMNANT ARCTIC
HIGH HAVING DRIFTED OFFSHORE IN A FAVORABLE IN-SITU WEDGE
POSITION. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH SUN
AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN OVERRUNNING THE WARM FRONT IN AN
AREA OF SUBSTANTIAL ISENTROPIC LIFT. AS USUAL WITH THESE TYPE OF
SITUATIONS...THE WEDGE LEADS TO A STABLE ENVIRONMENT AS THE MAIN
DYNAMICS PASS THROUGH THE REGION AND THIS IS NO EXCEPTION.

CONCERNS ARISE...HOWEVER...AS A 70-80KT LLJ TRAVERSES THE AREA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE WARM FRONT/UPPER TROUGH SUN AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. SPC HAS PUSHED THE GENERAL THUNDER AREA UP TOWARD THE
BLUE RIDGE...AND A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK APPROACHING THE FAR SE
COUNTIES...NAMELY HALIFAX/CASWELL. FEEL THAT THIS WILL BE ANOTHER
SITUATION WHERE THE COOL BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN DECOUPLED FROM
THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES. MODEL
ADVERTISED INSTABILITY AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING NEAR ZERO
INSTABILITY...POSITIVE LIS...AND ZERO CAPE...BUT SUBSTANTIAL SHEAR
WITH STRONGLY CURVED HODOGRAPHS AND 30+KTS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION. A TYPICAL HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT.
HOWEVER...WITH CAPE NEAR ZERO...DO NOT FEEL THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
SUPPORT FOR TSRA AT THIS POINT AND HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAVE IT OUT
OF THE GRIDS IN COORDINATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORS.

THE GREATER CONCERN THROUGH THE SUN TIME FRAME WILL BE AS THE
STRONG LLJ TRAVERSES THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW NC/SW VA/SE WV. THIS
IS FAIRLY CLASSICAL SETUP FOR STRONG TO HIGH WINDS IN THE
SMYTH/TAZEWELL/MERCER COUNTY REGION. CURRENT ADVERTISED WIND
SPEEDS DO NOT SUPPORT A HIGH WIND WATCH AT THIS POINT WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 22KTS AND GUSTS TO AROUND 38KTS. A WIND
ADVISORY SEEMS QUITE PROBABLE THOUGH AS WE MOVE CLOSER TO THE
EVENT.

WHILE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED SUN
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS...MAINLY IN THE 18Z-06Z TIME
FRAME...OVERALL QPF REMAIN MOSTLY 1 INCH OR LESS FOR THE ENTIRE
CWA. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD FALL ACROSS UPSLOPE SOUTHEAST
FACING SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH A STRONG S-SE WIND THROUGH
THE BULK OF THE RAIN EVENT.

MONDAY...THE WARM FRONT MOVES TO THE NORTH AND A VERY DEEP 966MB SFC
LOW PRESSURE AREA CRANKS UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AS THE VIGOROUS
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THAT REGION AND PHASES
WITH THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY EAST. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A STRONG SW SFC AND BOUNDARY LOW FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION. THE
CWA WILL BE SOLIDLY IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR SURE. TEMPERATURES MAY
ACTUALLY BEGIN TO RISE OVERNIGHT SUN NIGHT WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL
WAA. WITH 850MB TEMPS +10C TO EVEN +12C ACROSS PARTS OF THE CWA
AND THE STRONG SW FLOW...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
WARM IN THE 60S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO THE 70S EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...WITH EVEN 50S IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. COMPARED TO THE
BITTER COLD OF THE PAST WEEK...IT WILL FEEL LIKE SUMMER. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A PASSING SHOWER IN THE SUMMERLIKE AIR
MASS...BUT OTHER THAN THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW...THE SOUNDINGS
SHOW A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP...SO SHOWERS WOULD MOSTLY LIKELY BE
CONFINED TO PASSING MDT CU CAPABLE OF A SPRINKLE...WHICH IS NOT
LIKELY.

WE BEGIN TO RETURN TO REALITY TUESDAY AS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN U.S. IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING
SW U.S. UPPER RIDGE. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST WITH A GRADUAL COOL DOWN EXPECTED THROUGH THE
THANKSGIVING WEEK. MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES TUE SHOULD BE A GOOD 20-30
DEGREES COOLER THAN MON...BUT NOTHING CLOSE TO OUR RECENT COLD
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EST SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO PROGRESS
FROM NEAR JAMES BAY NORTHEAST TOWARDS GREENLAND. THE SYSTEMS
TRAILING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TO NEAR THE
EAST COAT OF THE U.S. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO OFFER VARIOUS
SOLUTIONS REGARDING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS PROGGED TO HEAD
NORTH ALONG THIS FRONT...FROM THE GULF COAST STATES TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. GENERAL CONSENSUS IS NOW
THAT THIS WILL OCCUR...WITH THE ECMWF PULLING THE MOISTURE
FARTHEST BACK INLAND AND TO THE WEST...WHILE THE CANADIAN IS THE
DRIEST. THE GFS SEEMS TO BE A REASONABLE COMPROMISE AT THIS POINT.
AT ANY RATE...ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL BUCKLE THE FRONT
FROM TUE...AT THAT POINT LYING ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS...AND ALLOW
THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE PIEDMONT AT A
MINIMUM...POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST WED AS THE ALLEGHANY FRONT.
THUS...HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE POPS FOR WED ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA...APPROACHING LIKELY VALUES IN FAR EASTERN AREAS. ENOUGH
COLDER AIR WILL HAVE MADE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION FOR SOME TYPE OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN WESTERN AREAS. HOWEVER...THE WESTERN AREAS
ARE THE AREAS LEAST LIKELY TO RECEIVE PCPN WITH THIS EVENT...SO
ANY WINTER PCPN...PRIMARILY SNOW...WOULD BE MINOR AT BEST AND DOES
NOT APPEAR TO AROUSE ANY WINTER WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS POINT.
FOR AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE FORM OF RAIN THROUGHOUT THE EVENT. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...THIS COASTAL WAVE WILL BE NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
AND NO LONGER BE A FACTOR IN OUR FORECAST.

WHAT WILL BECOME A FACTOR IS YET ANOTHER DEEPENING UPPER LOW
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GUIDANCE IS OFFERING THIS ONE TO TAKE A
FARTHER SOUTH TRACK THAN ITS PREDECESSOR...DEEPEN MORE...AND FUNNEL
A STRONGER SURGE OF COLDER AIR INTO OUR REGION. AFTER AN INITIAL
ROUND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION ON
THURSDAY...ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE PREFERRED AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL TREND LOWER EACH DAY...WITH THE
BIGGEST DROP BEING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW TO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
THANKSGIVING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1250 PM EST SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. LOW
CLOUDS UPSTREAM ARE FORECAST TO ROTATE AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH TO OUR WEST AND NORTH. SOME AFTERNOON CU MAY BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. MODEL UPPER LEVEL RH FIELDS
CORRELATE WELL WITH CIRRUS SEEN STREAMING IN OUR DIRECTION ON
SATELLITE LOOP. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

LIGHT WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH AND MORE
GUSTY ON SUNDAY. WINDS AT BLF MAY STAY UP A BIT TONIGHT AS THE
INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AND WARM FRONT START TO BE
FELT.

TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD MOISTURE WILL START TO ENCROACH
FROM THE SOUTH. SCT TO BKN MVFR CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY
MORNING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.


EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING...AND RAIN WITH MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
ALSO...STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS LATER ON SUNDAY MAY LEAD TO
LLWS...ESPECIALLY THE BLF AREA. A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR DURING
MONDAY OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A DRY SLOT DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE
EXITING FRONT FROM SUNDAY AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY LOOK TO FEATURE QUITE A BIT OF WIND. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK...EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS
EASTERN WV/FAR SW VA...BUT MOSTLY VFR ELSEWHERE WITH A COLDER NW
FLOW.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 215 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WILL BE OUT
OF SERVICE UNTIL PARTS ARRIVE TO REPLACE THE SENSOR. UNTIL THEN
THE VISIBILITY WILL ONLY BE REPORTED WHEN THE CONTROL TOWER IS
STAFFED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...KK/MBS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...DS/RAB
AVIATION...KK/MBS
EQUIPMENT...RAB



000
FXUS61 KLWX 221732
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1232 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON. A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT STALLS JUST OFFSHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

HIGH PRES HAS MIGRATED TO ERN N CAROLINA. BRILLIANT SUNSHINE OVR
THE MID ATLC AS A RESULT. IT IS INTERESTING TO LOOK AT THE 12Z
IAD SNDGS YDA AND THIS MRNG. BOTH WERE VERY DRY. FRI MRNG`S 24 HR
TEMPS CHG WAS NEUTRAL AT THE SFC THEN MARKEDLY COLDER THRU 600 MB
W/ A NEAR NRML LAPSE RATE THRU 800 MB THEN ISOTHERMAL TO 500 MB.
THIS MRNG SHOWED MUCH COLDER TEMPS AT THE SFC THEN STRONG WRMG
THRU 600 MB. THE TEMP PROFILE SHOWED A STRONG RADIATIONAL
INVERSION AT THE SFC.

HIGHS IN THE U40S/L50S LOOK GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

RDGG WL PROTECT CWFA TNGT AS WELL. WL HV DISTURBANCES ALONG THE NWRN
PERHIPHERY AS WELL AS APPROACHING FM THE S. SHUD HV CLDS NAK/DCA/SHD
NWD...BUT OTRW NONE OF THIS WL AFFECT AREA. WL BE ABLE TO RADIATE
AFDK...BUT SUSPECT WE/LL KEEP A PINCH OF SWLY FLOW AS WELL...SO IT
WONT BE ABLE TO GET ALL THAT COLD /SPCLY ON THE RDGTOPS/. CHGS FM
GOING FCST NOT THAT SGFNT.

BY SUN...PVA FM SRN STREAM WL BEGIN TO AFFECT AREA...SPCLY DURING
THE AFTN HRS. WL START THE DAY MOSUN...BUT CLDS WL OVERSPREAD HRS
MIDDAY/ELY AFTN AND WL BRING PCPN NEWD AFT 18Z. AM MOST CONFIDENT ON
RA TWD/AFTER SUNSET DUE TO CONTD INFLUENCE OF SFC RDGG AND NEED TO
SATURATE LLVLS FIRST. MAXT ONCE AGN A BLEND OF MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE VERY STRONG LLJ
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...ON THE ORDER OF 50-70KTS AT 850MB.
ISENTROPIC LIFT...THE LLJ AND PWATS PEAKING AROUND 1.5 INCHES WILL
SUPPORT A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...WITH OTHERWISE STEADY LIGHT RAIN. BASIN WIDE QPF EXPECTED TO
BE LESS THAN AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF RAIN POSSIBLE.
LOW TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S...WITH LOW 50S IN SOME
SPOTS ALONG AND EAST OF I-95.

WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS PA BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING...WITH
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. PRESSURE GRADIENT
BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A BREEZY DAY...WITH
S-SW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20-25 MPH. SOME MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS
SCATTERED OR ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA...BUT KEPT
POPS CORRESPONDINGLY LOW. WARM AIRMASS WILL BRING A BRIEF RETURN TO
MILD TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE VALLEYS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. 00Z NAM SUGGESTS POTENTIAL
FOR ORGANIZED SHOWERS...BUT IS NOT SUPPORTED BY GFS OR ECMWF. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS PRIMARILY IN THE
40S...WITH SOME 30S IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND HIGHLANDS.

CONFIDENCE DECREASES WITH SYNOPTIC SETUP FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.
GENERAL SCENARIO IS THAT HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST...BUT A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND MOVES
THROUGH THE OFFSHORE WATERS. 00Z GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER IN
TIMING...LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW. FCST AT THIS POINT CALLS
FOR POTENTIAL SHOWERS TUESDAY EAST OF I-95...FOLLOWED BY LIGHT RAIN
OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL INCLUDES
MOST OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE 40S...SO ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE LIQUID. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TEMPS START ABOVE FREEZING AND DROP BELOW LATE AT NIGHT FOR
MOST OF THE CWA...SO A PERIOD OF SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...WITH CWA BEING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...PRECIP AMOUNTS
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM.

BY LATE WEEK...MODEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES WITH ECMWF FAVORING AN
UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE GFS FAVORS THE UPPER
LOW FURTHER NORTH AND A COLD FROPA ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR TDA-TNGT.

WL HV LWRG CIGS SUN AFTN AS PCPN APPROACHES. NO RESTRICTIONS XPCTD
DURING MOST OF THE DAY...BUT DETERIORATING CONDS WL BE APPRCHG FM
THE SW...POTENTIALLY AFFECTING AFTN PUSH.

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR MONDAY
MORNING...WITH GUSTY S-SW WINDS. FLIGHT CONDITIONS UNCERTAIN MIDWEEK
WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME PRECIPITATION FROM A COASTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
GIVEN HV SEEN MULTIPLE GUSTS A20 KT AT VARIOUS CSTL LOCATIONS AN
SCA WAS ISSUED INTO THE EARLY EVENG HRS.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A
WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY
EVENING. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE MIDWEEK WITH A COASTAL LOW...BUT
STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...HTS/KCS






000
FXUS61 KLWX 221732
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1232 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON. A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT STALLS JUST OFFSHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

HIGH PRES HAS MIGRATED TO ERN N CAROLINA. BRILLIANT SUNSHINE OVR
THE MID ATLC AS A RESULT. IT IS INTERESTING TO LOOK AT THE 12Z
IAD SNDGS YDA AND THIS MRNG. BOTH WERE VERY DRY. FRI MRNG`S 24 HR
TEMPS CHG WAS NEUTRAL AT THE SFC THEN MARKEDLY COLDER THRU 600 MB
W/ A NEAR NRML LAPSE RATE THRU 800 MB THEN ISOTHERMAL TO 500 MB.
THIS MRNG SHOWED MUCH COLDER TEMPS AT THE SFC THEN STRONG WRMG
THRU 600 MB. THE TEMP PROFILE SHOWED A STRONG RADIATIONAL
INVERSION AT THE SFC.

HIGHS IN THE U40S/L50S LOOK GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

RDGG WL PROTECT CWFA TNGT AS WELL. WL HV DISTURBANCES ALONG THE NWRN
PERHIPHERY AS WELL AS APPROACHING FM THE S. SHUD HV CLDS NAK/DCA/SHD
NWD...BUT OTRW NONE OF THIS WL AFFECT AREA. WL BE ABLE TO RADIATE
AFDK...BUT SUSPECT WE/LL KEEP A PINCH OF SWLY FLOW AS WELL...SO IT
WONT BE ABLE TO GET ALL THAT COLD /SPCLY ON THE RDGTOPS/. CHGS FM
GOING FCST NOT THAT SGFNT.

BY SUN...PVA FM SRN STREAM WL BEGIN TO AFFECT AREA...SPCLY DURING
THE AFTN HRS. WL START THE DAY MOSUN...BUT CLDS WL OVERSPREAD HRS
MIDDAY/ELY AFTN AND WL BRING PCPN NEWD AFT 18Z. AM MOST CONFIDENT ON
RA TWD/AFTER SUNSET DUE TO CONTD INFLUENCE OF SFC RDGG AND NEED TO
SATURATE LLVLS FIRST. MAXT ONCE AGN A BLEND OF MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE VERY STRONG LLJ
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...ON THE ORDER OF 50-70KTS AT 850MB.
ISENTROPIC LIFT...THE LLJ AND PWATS PEAKING AROUND 1.5 INCHES WILL
SUPPORT A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...WITH OTHERWISE STEADY LIGHT RAIN. BASIN WIDE QPF EXPECTED TO
BE LESS THAN AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF RAIN POSSIBLE.
LOW TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S...WITH LOW 50S IN SOME
SPOTS ALONG AND EAST OF I-95.

WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS PA BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING...WITH
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. PRESSURE GRADIENT
BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A BREEZY DAY...WITH
S-SW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20-25 MPH. SOME MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS
SCATTERED OR ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA...BUT KEPT
POPS CORRESPONDINGLY LOW. WARM AIRMASS WILL BRING A BRIEF RETURN TO
MILD TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE VALLEYS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. 00Z NAM SUGGESTS POTENTIAL
FOR ORGANIZED SHOWERS...BUT IS NOT SUPPORTED BY GFS OR ECMWF. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS PRIMARILY IN THE
40S...WITH SOME 30S IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND HIGHLANDS.

CONFIDENCE DECREASES WITH SYNOPTIC SETUP FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.
GENERAL SCENARIO IS THAT HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST...BUT A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND MOVES
THROUGH THE OFFSHORE WATERS. 00Z GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER IN
TIMING...LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW. FCST AT THIS POINT CALLS
FOR POTENTIAL SHOWERS TUESDAY EAST OF I-95...FOLLOWED BY LIGHT RAIN
OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL INCLUDES
MOST OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE 40S...SO ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE LIQUID. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TEMPS START ABOVE FREEZING AND DROP BELOW LATE AT NIGHT FOR
MOST OF THE CWA...SO A PERIOD OF SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...WITH CWA BEING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...PRECIP AMOUNTS
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM.

BY LATE WEEK...MODEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES WITH ECMWF FAVORING AN
UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE GFS FAVORS THE UPPER
LOW FURTHER NORTH AND A COLD FROPA ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR TDA-TNGT.

WL HV LWRG CIGS SUN AFTN AS PCPN APPROACHES. NO RESTRICTIONS XPCTD
DURING MOST OF THE DAY...BUT DETERIORATING CONDS WL BE APPRCHG FM
THE SW...POTENTIALLY AFFECTING AFTN PUSH.

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR MONDAY
MORNING...WITH GUSTY S-SW WINDS. FLIGHT CONDITIONS UNCERTAIN MIDWEEK
WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME PRECIPITATION FROM A COASTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
GIVEN HV SEEN MULTIPLE GUSTS A20 KT AT VARIOUS CSTL LOCATIONS AN
SCA WAS ISSUED INTO THE EARLY EVENG HRS.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A
WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY
EVENING. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE MIDWEEK WITH A COASTAL LOW...BUT
STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...HTS/KCS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 221508
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1008 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON. A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT STALLS JUST OFFSHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

HIGH PRES HAS MIGRATED TO ERN N CAROLINA. BRILLIANT SUNSHINE OVR
THE MID ATLC AS A RESULT. COLD TEMPS B4 SUNRISE - SEE CLIMATE SXN
BLO. IT IS INTERESTING TO LOOK AT THE 12Z IAD SNDGS YDA AND THIS
MRNG. BOTH WERE VERY DRY. FRI MRNG`S 24 HR TEMPS CHG WAS NEUTRAL
AT THE SFC THEN MARKEDLY COLDER THRU 600 MB W/ A NEAR NRML LAPSE
RATE THRU 800 MB THEN ISOTHERMAL TO 500 MB. THIS MRNG SHOWED MUCH
COLDER TEMPS AT THE SFC THEN STRONG WRMG THRU 600 MB. THE TEMP
PROFILE SHOWED A STRONG RADIATIONAL INVERSION AT THE SFC.

GOING OUTSIDE AT 10 AM IT APPEARS THE INVERSION HAS BKN FM THE
MRNG SUN AS WINDS HV GONE SRLY. THIS WL LEAD TO DECENT WRMG THRU
THE AFTN HRS. HIGHS IN THE U40S/L50S LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

RDGG WL PROTECT CWFA TNGT AS WELL. WL HV DISTURBANCES ALONG THE NWRN
PERHIPHERY AS WELL AS APPROACHING FM THE S. SHUD HV CLDS NAK/DCA/SHD
NWD...BUT OTRW NONE OF THIS WL AFFECT AREA. WL BE ABLE TO RADIATE
AFDK...BUT SUSPECT WE/LL KEEP A PINCH OF SWLY FLOW AS WELL...SO IT
WONT BE ABLE TO GET ALL THAT COLD /SPCLY ON THE RDGTOPS/. CHGS FM
GOING FCST NOT THAT SGFNT.

BY SUN...PVA FM SRN STREAM WL BEGIN TO AFFECT AREA...SPCLY DURING
THE AFTN HRS. WL START THE DAY MOSUN...BUT CLDS WL OVERSPREAD HRS
MIDDAY/ELY AFTN AND WL BRING PCPN NEWD AFT 18Z. AM MOST CONFIDENT ON
RA TWD/AFTER SUNSET DUE TO CONTD INFLUENCE OF SFC RDGG AND NEED TO
SATURATE LLVLS FIRST. MAXT ONCE AGN A BLEND OF MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE VERY STRONG LLJ
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...ON THE ORDER OF 50-70KTS AT 850MB.
ISENTROPIC LIFT...THE LLJ AND PWATS PEAKING AROUND 1.5 INCHES WILL
SUPPORT A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...WITH OTHERWISE STEADY LIGHT RAIN. BASIN WIDE QPF EXPECTED TO
BE LESS THAN AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF RAIN POSSIBLE.
LOW TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S...WITH LOW 50S IN SOME
SPOTS ALONG AND EAST OF I-95.

WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS PA BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING...WITH
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. PRESSURE GRADIENT
BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A BREEZY DAY...WITH
S-SW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20-25 MPH. SOME MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS
SCATTERED OR ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA...BUT KEPT
POPS CORRESPONDINGLY LOW. WARM AIRMASS WILL BRING A BRIEF RETURN TO
MILD TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE VALLEYS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. 00Z NAM SUGGESTS POTENTIAL
FOR ORGANIZED SHOWERS...BUT IS NOT SUPPORTED BY GFS OR ECMWF. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS PRIMARILY IN THE
40S...WITH SOME 30S IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND HIGHLANDS.

CONFIDENCE DECREASES WITH SYNOPTIC SETUP FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.
GENERAL SCENARIO IS THAT HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST...BUT A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND MOVES
THROUGH THE OFFSHORE WATERS. 00Z GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER IN
TIMING...LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW. FCST AT THIS POINT CALLS
FOR POTENTIAL SHOWERS TUESDAY EAST OF I-95...FOLLOWED BY LIGHT RAIN
OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL INCLUDES
MOST OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE 40S...SO ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE LIQUID. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TEMPS START ABOVE FREEZING AND DROP BELOW LATE AT NIGHT FOR
MOST OF THE CWA...SO A PERIOD OF SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...WITH CWA BEING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...PRECIP AMOUNTS
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM.

BY LATE WEEK...MODEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES WITH ECMWF FAVORING AN
UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE GFS FAVORS THE UPPER
LOW FURTHER NORTH AND A COLD FROPA ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

VFR TDA-TNGT.

WL HV LWRG CIGS SUN AFTN AS PCPN APPROACHES. NO RESTRICTIONS XPCTD
DURING MOST OF THE DAY...BUT DETERIORATING CONDS WL BE APPRCHG FM
THE SW...POTENTIALLY AFFECTING AFTN PUSH.

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR MONDAY
MORNING...WITH GUSTY S-SW WINDS. FLIGHT CONDITIONS UNCERTAIN MIDWEEK
WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME PRECIPITATION FROM A COASTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...

SLY WINDS ON THE WATERS THIS WKND. WHILE THERE WL PDS W/ DECENT
FLOW...MIXING WL BE QUITE POOR OVER LWR-MID 40S WATER TEMPS. HV
CAPPED WINDS AOB 15 KT.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A
WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY
EVENING. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE MIDWEEK WITH A COASTAL LOW...BUT
STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

CLIMATE...
ABNORMAL EARLY SEASON COLD CONTINUES...BUT WILL GIVE WAY TO NEAR
RECORD WARMTH MONDAY.

IAD TIED A RECORD LOW OF 14 DEGREES THIS MORNING...PREVIOUSLY SET
BACK IN 1964. PERHAPS MORE TELLING IS THE FACT THAT BWI AND IAD HAVE
NOT EXCEEDED 50 DEGREES IN A WEEK. TODAY`S HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN IN THE 40S...WHICH WOULD BE THE 8TH CONSECUTIVE DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW 50 AT BOTH SITES...SECOND MOST ON RECORD AT IAD
IN THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER...AND THE LONGEST NOVEMBER STRETCH AT BWI
SINCE 1944.

STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL USHER IN
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES...AND HIGHS MONDAY COULD APPROACH
RECORD MAXIMUM VALUES. BELOW IS A LIST OF RECORD DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR 11/24.

SITE   RECORD (YEAR)
DCA    74 (1958)
BWI    73 (1979)
IAD    74 (1979)

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!/DFH
PRVS...HTS/KCS









000
FXUS61 KLWX 221508
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1008 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON. A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT STALLS JUST OFFSHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

HIGH PRES HAS MIGRATED TO ERN N CAROLINA. BRILLIANT SUNSHINE OVR
THE MID ATLC AS A RESULT. COLD TEMPS B4 SUNRISE - SEE CLIMATE SXN
BLO. IT IS INTERESTING TO LOOK AT THE 12Z IAD SNDGS YDA AND THIS
MRNG. BOTH WERE VERY DRY. FRI MRNG`S 24 HR TEMPS CHG WAS NEUTRAL
AT THE SFC THEN MARKEDLY COLDER THRU 600 MB W/ A NEAR NRML LAPSE
RATE THRU 800 MB THEN ISOTHERMAL TO 500 MB. THIS MRNG SHOWED MUCH
COLDER TEMPS AT THE SFC THEN STRONG WRMG THRU 600 MB. THE TEMP
PROFILE SHOWED A STRONG RADIATIONAL INVERSION AT THE SFC.

GOING OUTSIDE AT 10 AM IT APPEARS THE INVERSION HAS BKN FM THE
MRNG SUN AS WINDS HV GONE SRLY. THIS WL LEAD TO DECENT WRMG THRU
THE AFTN HRS. HIGHS IN THE U40S/L50S LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

RDGG WL PROTECT CWFA TNGT AS WELL. WL HV DISTURBANCES ALONG THE NWRN
PERHIPHERY AS WELL AS APPROACHING FM THE S. SHUD HV CLDS NAK/DCA/SHD
NWD...BUT OTRW NONE OF THIS WL AFFECT AREA. WL BE ABLE TO RADIATE
AFDK...BUT SUSPECT WE/LL KEEP A PINCH OF SWLY FLOW AS WELL...SO IT
WONT BE ABLE TO GET ALL THAT COLD /SPCLY ON THE RDGTOPS/. CHGS FM
GOING FCST NOT THAT SGFNT.

BY SUN...PVA FM SRN STREAM WL BEGIN TO AFFECT AREA...SPCLY DURING
THE AFTN HRS. WL START THE DAY MOSUN...BUT CLDS WL OVERSPREAD HRS
MIDDAY/ELY AFTN AND WL BRING PCPN NEWD AFT 18Z. AM MOST CONFIDENT ON
RA TWD/AFTER SUNSET DUE TO CONTD INFLUENCE OF SFC RDGG AND NEED TO
SATURATE LLVLS FIRST. MAXT ONCE AGN A BLEND OF MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE VERY STRONG LLJ
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...ON THE ORDER OF 50-70KTS AT 850MB.
ISENTROPIC LIFT...THE LLJ AND PWATS PEAKING AROUND 1.5 INCHES WILL
SUPPORT A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...WITH OTHERWISE STEADY LIGHT RAIN. BASIN WIDE QPF EXPECTED TO
BE LESS THAN AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF RAIN POSSIBLE.
LOW TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S...WITH LOW 50S IN SOME
SPOTS ALONG AND EAST OF I-95.

WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS PA BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING...WITH
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. PRESSURE GRADIENT
BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A BREEZY DAY...WITH
S-SW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20-25 MPH. SOME MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS
SCATTERED OR ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA...BUT KEPT
POPS CORRESPONDINGLY LOW. WARM AIRMASS WILL BRING A BRIEF RETURN TO
MILD TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE VALLEYS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. 00Z NAM SUGGESTS POTENTIAL
FOR ORGANIZED SHOWERS...BUT IS NOT SUPPORTED BY GFS OR ECMWF. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS PRIMARILY IN THE
40S...WITH SOME 30S IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND HIGHLANDS.

CONFIDENCE DECREASES WITH SYNOPTIC SETUP FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.
GENERAL SCENARIO IS THAT HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST...BUT A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND MOVES
THROUGH THE OFFSHORE WATERS. 00Z GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER IN
TIMING...LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW. FCST AT THIS POINT CALLS
FOR POTENTIAL SHOWERS TUESDAY EAST OF I-95...FOLLOWED BY LIGHT RAIN
OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL INCLUDES
MOST OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE 40S...SO ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE LIQUID. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TEMPS START ABOVE FREEZING AND DROP BELOW LATE AT NIGHT FOR
MOST OF THE CWA...SO A PERIOD OF SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...WITH CWA BEING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...PRECIP AMOUNTS
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM.

BY LATE WEEK...MODEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES WITH ECMWF FAVORING AN
UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE GFS FAVORS THE UPPER
LOW FURTHER NORTH AND A COLD FROPA ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

VFR TDA-TNGT.

WL HV LWRG CIGS SUN AFTN AS PCPN APPROACHES. NO RESTRICTIONS XPCTD
DURING MOST OF THE DAY...BUT DETERIORATING CONDS WL BE APPRCHG FM
THE SW...POTENTIALLY AFFECTING AFTN PUSH.

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR MONDAY
MORNING...WITH GUSTY S-SW WINDS. FLIGHT CONDITIONS UNCERTAIN MIDWEEK
WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME PRECIPITATION FROM A COASTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...

SLY WINDS ON THE WATERS THIS WKND. WHILE THERE WL PDS W/ DECENT
FLOW...MIXING WL BE QUITE POOR OVER LWR-MID 40S WATER TEMPS. HV
CAPPED WINDS AOB 15 KT.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A
WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY
EVENING. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE MIDWEEK WITH A COASTAL LOW...BUT
STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

CLIMATE...
ABNORMAL EARLY SEASON COLD CONTINUES...BUT WILL GIVE WAY TO NEAR
RECORD WARMTH MONDAY.

IAD TIED A RECORD LOW OF 14 DEGREES THIS MORNING...PREVIOUSLY SET
BACK IN 1964. PERHAPS MORE TELLING IS THE FACT THAT BWI AND IAD HAVE
NOT EXCEEDED 50 DEGREES IN A WEEK. TODAY`S HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN IN THE 40S...WHICH WOULD BE THE 8TH CONSECUTIVE DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW 50 AT BOTH SITES...SECOND MOST ON RECORD AT IAD
IN THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER...AND THE LONGEST NOVEMBER STRETCH AT BWI
SINCE 1944.

STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL USHER IN
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES...AND HIGHS MONDAY COULD APPROACH
RECORD MAXIMUM VALUES. BELOW IS A LIST OF RECORD DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR 11/24.

SITE   RECORD (YEAR)
DCA    74 (1958)
BWI    73 (1979)
IAD    74 (1979)

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!/DFH
PRVS...HTS/KCS








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221459
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
959 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING...THEN
SLIDES OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH AND ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HI PRES (~1036MB) CENTERED OVR NC ATTM. TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO
THE M30S/L40S AS OF 10 AM...AFTER A (VERY) COLD START UNDER SKC
AND NR CALM WNDS W/ MOST LO TEMPS FM THE UPR TEENS TO THE M20S.
THE HI IS SLO TO WEAKEN/DRIFT OFF THE CST LATER TDA. LGT/VRB WNDS
BECOME SSW RESULTING IN MODERATION. SKY RMNS MNLY SKC THROUGH THIS
AFTN. HI TEMPS FM THE U40S N TO L50S FAR SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND THICKEN FM THE SW LATE TNGT
THROUGH MIDDAY SUN...AS GULF CST MOISTURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT LIFTS NE THROUGH THE SE CONUS. CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY SAT NGT WITH LOWS RANGING THRU THE 30S.

THE WARM FRONT WITH STRONG VERTICAL MOTION AND ASSOCIATED
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE WILL LIFT NE AND ACRS THE MDATLC RGN SUN
SUN NGT. HAVE POPS FOR RAIN INCREASING TO 30-50% SW 1/2 OF FA
DURING SUN AFTN...THEN TO 80-90% EVERYWHERE BETWEEN 00Z-06Z
MON...AND FM ABT 70% NE TO 40% SW BETWEEN 06Z-12Z MON. ADDED SLGT
CHC T FOR CSTL NE NC (AND SPC HAS SLGT CHC SVR). TIGHTENING PRES
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN BREEZY/WINDY CONDS...ESP INVOF CST. GUSTS
FM SSE DIRECTION TO 30 TO 40 MPH PSBL. HI TEMPS SUN RANGING FM THE
L/M50S NW TO THE L60S SE. LOWS SUN NGT RANGING THRU THE 50S...W/
READINGS LIKELY TO RISE AFT MDNGT. QPF AVGG 1/2 TO 1 INCH.

THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NNE OF THE REGION AT 12Z MON...WITH A
CDFNT PUSHING TWD/INTO OUR EXTRM WRN CNTIES BY 00Z TUE. AFTER LWR
CLOUDS AND PSBL FOG MON MRNG...SW WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE CDFNT
BECOME GUSTY...AND WILL HELP TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 70S UNDER A
PARTLY SUNNY SKY. FOR NOW...POPS AOB 14% ON MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST BY 12Z TUE. BNDRY THEN
STALLS OVR THE GULF STREAM TUE & WED IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF
S/W`S PROGGED TO DVLP THEN MOVE NE ALONG IT. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRS
(OF PACIFIC ORIGIN) OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION BUILDS S&E THRU
THE MID WEEK PRD. UPR LVL LOW AND TRAILING CDFRNT PROGGED TO DIVE
SE FROM THE GT LAKES THU WITH HIGH PRS BUILDING INTO THE ARA FRI.

GRIDS WILL INDICATE SLGHT CHC SHWRS WITH FROPA MONDAY NIGHT. COOLER
AS CAA SET IN BEHIND THE FRNT. LOWS M-U40S NWRN HALF 50-55 SERN
HALF. TUE THRU WED FCST DEPENDS ON HOW FAR N&W MSTR GETS FROM THE
DVLPNG LOW OFF THE SERN COAST. GFS HAS A TRACK A BIT FRTHR EAST
KEEPING THE PCPN CONFINED TO SERN CSTL AREAS BY LATE TUE...AND GNRLY
E OF I95 WED. ECMWF SLOWER WITH A DRY TUE...PCPN MOVG ACROSS SERN
CSTL AREAS TUE NIGHT THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA WED BEFORE
PULLING OUT TO SEAS WED NIGHT.

TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF WITH THE COASTAL LOW TUE & WED...BUT THNK
IT IS OVERDONE WRT THE DEEPENING OF THE LOW OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST
TURKEY DAY. WILL INDICATE 20-30 POP ACROSS SERN CSTL AREAS TUE. DRY
ELSEWHERE. HIGHS M50S-L60S. A GENERAL RAIN OVRSPRDS THE FA SE-NW
TUES NIGHT AND WED...THEN ENDS WED EVE AS THE LOW PULLS FRTHR
OFFSHORE. PCPN ALL LIQUID WITH THIS EVENT. LOWS TUE NIGHT M30S-M40S.
HIGHS WED M40S-L50S. PCPN ENDS WED EVE BEFORE THE COLD AIR ARRIVES.
LOWS AFTER THE RAIN ENDS FALL INTO THE U20S-L30S W OF THE
BAY...M-U30S SERN CSTL AREAS.

CLIPPER TYPE S/W DIVES SE THU. ENUF MSTR SEEN WITH THIS FTR FOR AT
LEAST SLGHT CHC DIURNAL SHWRS (PSBLY MIXED WITH IP???) THANKSGIVING
DAY. HIGHS 45-50. DRYING OUT THURS NIGHT AND FRI. LOWS U20S-M30S
XCPT 35-40 SERN CSTL AREAS. HIGHS FRI M-U40S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR AND DRY WX THRU THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. OTHER THAN A FEW HI CLOUDS
TDA...MAINLY SKC WITH 5-10 KT S/SW WINDS. HI PRES SLIDES OFF THE CST
TDA...AND WILL PUSH FARTHER OFFSHORE INTO SUN. A COMPLEX WX SYSTM
IS EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN AND MVFR/IFR CONDS LATE SUN
INTO MON MRNG.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA OVR SRN CSTL WTRS HAS EXPIRED AS SEAS DROPPED BLO 5 FT. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNG...EXPECT 2-3 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS WITH
LGT WINDS AS STRONG SFC HI PRES CENTERS OVR THE WTRS. THE HI
SLIDES FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS AFTN...WITH WINDS BCMG SLY AT 10-15 KT.
NEXT LO PRES SYSTM PUSHES NE TOWARDS THE OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
SUN/SUN NGT...WITH S/SE FLOW RAMPING UP OVR THE LOCAL WTRS AS THE
PRES GRADIENT INCREASES. SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUN NGT INTO MON
IN RESPONSE TO THIS...AND MAY CONTINUE UNTIL MON NGT WHEN THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRNT CROSSES THE AREA. GUSTS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE
OVR THE OCEAN AS WELL. WITH THIS BEING 4TH PERIOD WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW. WAVES OVR THE BAY WILL REACH 3-4 FT WITH SEAS
OVR CSTL WTRS UP TO 6-8 FT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED MONDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

RIC 76 1979
ORF 78 1983
SBY 78 1931
ECG 77 1983

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB/TMG/AJZ
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...AKQ





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221459
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
959 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING...THEN
SLIDES OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH AND ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HI PRES (~1036MB) CENTERED OVR NC ATTM. TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO
THE M30S/L40S AS OF 10 AM...AFTER A (VERY) COLD START UNDER SKC
AND NR CALM WNDS W/ MOST LO TEMPS FM THE UPR TEENS TO THE M20S.
THE HI IS SLO TO WEAKEN/DRIFT OFF THE CST LATER TDA. LGT/VRB WNDS
BECOME SSW RESULTING IN MODERATION. SKY RMNS MNLY SKC THROUGH THIS
AFTN. HI TEMPS FM THE U40S N TO L50S FAR SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND THICKEN FM THE SW LATE TNGT
THROUGH MIDDAY SUN...AS GULF CST MOISTURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT LIFTS NE THROUGH THE SE CONUS. CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY SAT NGT WITH LOWS RANGING THRU THE 30S.

THE WARM FRONT WITH STRONG VERTICAL MOTION AND ASSOCIATED
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE WILL LIFT NE AND ACRS THE MDATLC RGN SUN
SUN NGT. HAVE POPS FOR RAIN INCREASING TO 30-50% SW 1/2 OF FA
DURING SUN AFTN...THEN TO 80-90% EVERYWHERE BETWEEN 00Z-06Z
MON...AND FM ABT 70% NE TO 40% SW BETWEEN 06Z-12Z MON. ADDED SLGT
CHC T FOR CSTL NE NC (AND SPC HAS SLGT CHC SVR). TIGHTENING PRES
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN BREEZY/WINDY CONDS...ESP INVOF CST. GUSTS
FM SSE DIRECTION TO 30 TO 40 MPH PSBL. HI TEMPS SUN RANGING FM THE
L/M50S NW TO THE L60S SE. LOWS SUN NGT RANGING THRU THE 50S...W/
READINGS LIKELY TO RISE AFT MDNGT. QPF AVGG 1/2 TO 1 INCH.

THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NNE OF THE REGION AT 12Z MON...WITH A
CDFNT PUSHING TWD/INTO OUR EXTRM WRN CNTIES BY 00Z TUE. AFTER LWR
CLOUDS AND PSBL FOG MON MRNG...SW WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE CDFNT
BECOME GUSTY...AND WILL HELP TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 70S UNDER A
PARTLY SUNNY SKY. FOR NOW...POPS AOB 14% ON MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST BY 12Z TUE. BNDRY THEN
STALLS OVR THE GULF STREAM TUE & WED IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF
S/W`S PROGGED TO DVLP THEN MOVE NE ALONG IT. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRS
(OF PACIFIC ORIGIN) OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION BUILDS S&E THRU
THE MID WEEK PRD. UPR LVL LOW AND TRAILING CDFRNT PROGGED TO DIVE
SE FROM THE GT LAKES THU WITH HIGH PRS BUILDING INTO THE ARA FRI.

GRIDS WILL INDICATE SLGHT CHC SHWRS WITH FROPA MONDAY NIGHT. COOLER
AS CAA SET IN BEHIND THE FRNT. LOWS M-U40S NWRN HALF 50-55 SERN
HALF. TUE THRU WED FCST DEPENDS ON HOW FAR N&W MSTR GETS FROM THE
DVLPNG LOW OFF THE SERN COAST. GFS HAS A TRACK A BIT FRTHR EAST
KEEPING THE PCPN CONFINED TO SERN CSTL AREAS BY LATE TUE...AND GNRLY
E OF I95 WED. ECMWF SLOWER WITH A DRY TUE...PCPN MOVG ACROSS SERN
CSTL AREAS TUE NIGHT THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA WED BEFORE
PULLING OUT TO SEAS WED NIGHT.

TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF WITH THE COASTAL LOW TUE & WED...BUT THNK
IT IS OVERDONE WRT THE DEEPENING OF THE LOW OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST
TURKEY DAY. WILL INDICATE 20-30 POP ACROSS SERN CSTL AREAS TUE. DRY
ELSEWHERE. HIGHS M50S-L60S. A GENERAL RAIN OVRSPRDS THE FA SE-NW
TUES NIGHT AND WED...THEN ENDS WED EVE AS THE LOW PULLS FRTHR
OFFSHORE. PCPN ALL LIQUID WITH THIS EVENT. LOWS TUE NIGHT M30S-M40S.
HIGHS WED M40S-L50S. PCPN ENDS WED EVE BEFORE THE COLD AIR ARRIVES.
LOWS AFTER THE RAIN ENDS FALL INTO THE U20S-L30S W OF THE
BAY...M-U30S SERN CSTL AREAS.

CLIPPER TYPE S/W DIVES SE THU. ENUF MSTR SEEN WITH THIS FTR FOR AT
LEAST SLGHT CHC DIURNAL SHWRS (PSBLY MIXED WITH IP???) THANKSGIVING
DAY. HIGHS 45-50. DRYING OUT THURS NIGHT AND FRI. LOWS U20S-M30S
XCPT 35-40 SERN CSTL AREAS. HIGHS FRI M-U40S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR AND DRY WX THRU THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. OTHER THAN A FEW HI CLOUDS
TDA...MAINLY SKC WITH 5-10 KT S/SW WINDS. HI PRES SLIDES OFF THE CST
TDA...AND WILL PUSH FARTHER OFFSHORE INTO SUN. A COMPLEX WX SYSTM
IS EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN AND MVFR/IFR CONDS LATE SUN
INTO MON MRNG.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA OVR SRN CSTL WTRS HAS EXPIRED AS SEAS DROPPED BLO 5 FT. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNG...EXPECT 2-3 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS WITH
LGT WINDS AS STRONG SFC HI PRES CENTERS OVR THE WTRS. THE HI
SLIDES FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS AFTN...WITH WINDS BCMG SLY AT 10-15 KT.
NEXT LO PRES SYSTM PUSHES NE TOWARDS THE OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
SUN/SUN NGT...WITH S/SE FLOW RAMPING UP OVR THE LOCAL WTRS AS THE
PRES GRADIENT INCREASES. SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUN NGT INTO MON
IN RESPONSE TO THIS...AND MAY CONTINUE UNTIL MON NGT WHEN THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRNT CROSSES THE AREA. GUSTS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE
OVR THE OCEAN AS WELL. WITH THIS BEING 4TH PERIOD WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW. WAVES OVR THE BAY WILL REACH 3-4 FT WITH SEAS
OVR CSTL WTRS UP TO 6-8 FT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED MONDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

RIC 76 1979
ORF 78 1983
SBY 78 1931
ECG 77 1983

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB/TMG/AJZ
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KRNK 221450
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
950 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ONE MORE DAY OF FAIR WEATHER TO THE REGION
AS WE START THE WEEKEND. THEN...A STORM SYSTEM MOVING NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT INTO THE
APPALACHIANS AND CENTRAL MID ATLANTIC REGION...BRINGING WET AND
WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM BEFORE A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY...RETURNING TEMPERATURES TO BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM EST SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR REGION THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE
EASTWARD TO OUR NORTH AROUND THE HIGH CENTER. THE HRRR...NAM AND
HIRESW-ARW KEEP MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA WITH THIS FEATURE. INCREASED CLOUD COVER IN THE
NORTHWEST FOR HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL BE
HOLDING OFF UNTIL TONIGHT AS DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF APPROACHING WARM FRONT. MADE SOME MINOR
CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD WITH CURRENT FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
NOW...BUT WILL MONITOR FOR ANY CHANGES LATER THIS MORNING. ENJOY
YOUR SATURDAY !

AS OF 330 AM EST SATURDAY...

ONE MORE QUIET DAY ON TAP AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION SLIDES OFF
TO OUR EAST TODAY. LOW CLOUDS TO OUR WEST LOOK TO ROTATE AROUND THE
BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH...WHICH WILL KEEP THEM JUST WEST AND NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS
OVERSPREADING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...RESULTING IN A FAIR WEATHER DAY
WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE. SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL BE
HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATE TONIGHT AS DEEP SWLY FLOW SETS UP IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF APPROACHING WARM FRONT...AND CLOUDS MOVE IN
EN MASSE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AND WITH THE CLOUDS COMES THE
INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN...ENTERING THE FORECAST FROM THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT WILL BE RAMPING UP QUICKLY AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SATURDAY...

THE PRIMARY FOCUS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON A VIGOROUS
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE SLATED TO TRAVERSE THE REGION FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUN AFTERNOON/SUN NIGHT. THE SHORT WAVE
WILL EJECT IN ADVANCE OF A BROADER TROUGH PROGGED TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. SUN-MON. AS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
TO DEVELOP SUN...THE LEADING SHORT WAVE WILL TAKE ON A STRONG
NEGATIVE TILT AND ROTATE OUT OF THE ARKLATEX/MID-SOUTH REGION
TOWARD THE OH VALLEY SUN EVENING/OVERNIGHT. THE ANTECEDENT AIR
MASS ACROSS THE RNK CWA WILL BE DRY/COOL FROM THE REMNANT ARCTIC
HIGH HAVING DRIFTED OFFSHORE IN A FAVORABLE IN-SITU WEDGE
POSITION. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH SUN
AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN OVERRUNNING THE WARM FRONT IN AN
AREA OF SUBSTANTIAL ISENTROPIC LIFT. AS USUAL WITH THESE TYPE OF
SITUATIONS...THE WEDGE LEADS TO A STABLE ENVIRONMENT AS THE MAIN
DYNAMICS PASS THROUGH THE REGION AND THIS IS NO EXCEPTION.

CONCERNS ARISE...HOWEVER...AS A 70-80KT LLJ TRAVERSES THE AREA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE WARM FRONT/UPPER TROUGH SUN AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. SPC HAS PUSHED THE GENERAL THUNDER AREA UP TOWARD THE
BLUE RIDGE...AND A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK APPROACHING THE FAR SE
COUNTIES...NAMELY HALIFAX/CASWELL. FEEL THAT THIS WILL BE ANOTHER
SITUATION WHERE THE COOL BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN DECOUPLED FROM
THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES. MODEL
ADVERTISED INSTABILITY AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING NEAR ZERO
INSTABILITY...POSITIVE LIS...AND ZERO CAPE...BUT SUBSTANTIAL SHEAR
WITH STRONGLY CURVED HODOGRAPHS AND 30+KTS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION. A TYPICAL HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT.
HOWEVER...WITH CAPE NEAR ZERO...DO NOT FEEL THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
SUPPORT FOR TSRA AT THIS POINT AND HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAVE IT OUT
OF THE GRIDS IN COORDINATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORS.

THE GREATER CONCERN THROUGH THE SUN TIME FRAME WILL BE AS THE
STRONG LLJ TRAVERSES THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW NC/SW VA/SE WV. THIS
IS FAIRLY CLASSICAL SETUP FOR STRONG TO HIGH WINDS IN THE
SMYTH/TAZEWELL/MERCER COUNTY REGION. CURRENT ADVERTISED WIND
SPEEDS DO NOT SUPPORT A HIGH WIND WATCH AT THIS POINT WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 22KTS AND GUSTS TO AROUND 38KTS. A WIND
ADVISORY SEEMS QUITE PROBABLE THOUGH AS WE MOVE CLOSER TO THE
EVENT.

WHILE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED SUN
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS...MAINLY IN THE 18Z-06Z TIME
FRAME...OVERALL QPF REMAIN MOSTLY 1 INCH OR LESS FOR THE ENTIRE
CWA. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD FALL ACROSS UPSLOPE SOUTHEAST
FACING SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH A STRONG S-SE WIND THROUGH
THE BULK OF THE RAIN EVENT.

MONDAY...THE WARM FRONT MOVES TO THE NORTH AND A VERY DEEP 966MB SFC
LOW PRESSURE AREA CRANKS UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AS THE VIGOROUS
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THAT REGION AND PHASES
WITH THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY EAST. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A STRONG SW SFC AND BOUNDARY LOW FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION. THE
CWA WILL BE SOLIDLY IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR SURE. TEMPERATURES MAY
ACTUALLY BEGIN TO RISE OVERNIGHT SUN NIGHT WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL
WAA. WITH 850MB TEMPS +10C TO EVEN +12C ACROSS PARTS OF THE CWA
AND THE STRONG SW FLOW...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
WARM IN THE 60S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO THE 70S EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...WITH EVEN 50S IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. COMPARED TO THE
BITTER COLD OF THE PAST WEEK...IT WILL FEEL LIKE SUMMER. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A PASSING SHOWER IN THE SUMMERLIKE AIR
MASS...BUT OTHER THAN THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW...THE SOUNDINGS
SHOW A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP...SO SHOWERS WOULD MOSTLY LIKELY BE
CONFINED TO PASSING MDT CU CAPABLE OF A SPRINKLE...WHICH IS NOT
LIKELY.

WE BEGIN TO RETURN TO REALITY TUESDAY AS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN U.S. IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING
SW U.S. UPPER RIDGE. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST WITH A GRADUAL COOL DOWN EXPECTED THROUGH THE
THANKSGIVING WEEK. MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES TUE SHOULD BE A GOOD 20-30
DEGREES COOLER THAN MON...BUT NOTHING CLOSE TO OUR RECENT COLD
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EST SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO PROGRESS
FROM NEAR JAMES BAY NORTHEAST TOWARDS GREENLAND. THE SYSTEMS
TRAILING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TO NEAR THE
EAST COAT OF THE U.S. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO OFFER VARIOUS
SOLUTIONS REGARDING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS PROGGED TO HEAD
NORTH ALONG THIS FRONT...FROM THE GULF COAST STATES TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. GENERAL CONSENSUS IS NOW
THAT THIS WILL OCCUR...WITH THE ECMWF PULLING THE MOISTURE
FARTHEST BACK INLAND AND TO THE WEST...WHILE THE CANADIAN IS THE
DRIEST. THE GFS SEEMS TO BE A REASONABLE COMPROMISE AT THIS POINT.
AT ANY RATE...ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL BUCKLE THE FRONT
FROM TUE...AT THAT POINT LYING ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS...AND ALLOW
THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE PIEDMONT AT A
MINIMUM...POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST WED AS THE ALLEGHANY FRONT.
THUS...HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE POPS FOR WED ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA...APPROACHING LIKELY VALUES IN FAR EASTERN AREAS. ENOUGH
COLDER AIR WILL HAVE MADE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION FOR SOME TYPE OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN WESTERN AREAS. HOWEVER...THE WESTERN AREAS
ARE THE AREAS LEAST LIKELY TO RECEIVE PCPN WITH THIS EVENT...SO
ANY WINTER PCPN...PRIMARILY SNOW...WOULD BE MINOR AT BEST AND DOES
NOT APPEAR TO AROUSE ANY WINTER WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS POINT.
FOR AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE FORM OF RAIN THROUGHOUT THE EVENT. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...THIS COASTAL WAVE WILL BE NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
AND NO LONGER BE A FACTOR IN OUR FORECAST.

WHAT WILL BECOME A FACTOR IS YET ANOTHER DEEPENING UPPER LOW
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GUIDANCE IS OFFERING THIS ONE TO TAKE A
FARTHER SOUTH TRACK THAN ITS PREDECESSOR...DEEPEN MORE...AND FUNNEL
A STRONGER SURGE OF COLDER AIR INTO OUR REGION. AFTER AN INITIAL
ROUND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION ON
THURSDAY...ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE PREFERRED AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL TREND LOWER EACH DAY...WITH THE
BIGGEST DROP BEING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW TO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
THANKSGIVING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM EST SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THIS PERIOD.

ESSENTIALLY A NIL WEATHER FORECAST THIS TAF PACKAGE AS CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS THE PERIOD OVER THE REGION AND SLOWLY SLIDES
OFF TO OUR EAST. LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM ARE FORECAST TO ROTATE AROUND
THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH TO OUR WEST AND NORTH. MAYBE A FEW PUFFS
OF CU AT KLWB OR KBLF THIS AFTERNOON BUT DO NOT FEEL IT WARRANTS ANY
MENTION IN THE TAF. BUT MODEL UPPER LEVEL RH FIELDS CORRELATE WELL
WITH CIRRUS SEEN STREAMING IN OUR DIRECTION ON CURRENT SATELLITE
LOOP SO IT LOOKS LIKE A HIGH CIG OF BKN CIRRUS WILL PREVENT SKC FOR
SKY CONDITION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...BUT KBLF WILL SEE WINDS BACK FROM SW TO SLY AND STAY UP A
BIT TONIGHT AS THE INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AND WARM
FRONT START TO BE FELT.

TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD MOISTURE WILL START TO ENCROACH
FROM THE SOUTH. WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY LOW CLOUDS WITH THIS ISSUANCE
BUT KDAN AND POSSIBLY KBCB AND KBLF MAY HAVE MVFR CIGS ON THEIR
DOORSTEP BY 12Z SUNDAY.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING DURING THE MORNING...AND RAIN WITH MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. ALSO...STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL WINDS LATER ON SUNDAY MAY LEAD TO LLWS...ESPECIALLY THE BLF
AREA. A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR DURING MONDAY OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS
AS A DRY SLOT DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE EXITING FRONT FROM SUNDAY AND THE
NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. MONDAY INTO TUESDAY LOOK TO FEATURE QUITE
A BIT OF WIND. FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK...EXPECT PERIODS OF
MVFR CIGS ACROSS EASTERN WV/FAR SW VA...BUT MOSTLY VFR ELSEWHERE
WITH A COLDER NW FLOW.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 215 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WILL BE OUT
OF SERVICE UNTIL PARTS ARRIVE TO REPLACE THE SENSOR. UNTIL THEN
THE VISIBILITY WILL ONLY BE REPORTED WHEN THE CONTROL TOWER IS
STAFFED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...KK/MBS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...DS/RAB
AVIATION...KK/MBS
EQUIPMENT...RAB



000
FXUS61 KRNK 221450
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
950 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ONE MORE DAY OF FAIR WEATHER TO THE REGION
AS WE START THE WEEKEND. THEN...A STORM SYSTEM MOVING NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT INTO THE
APPALACHIANS AND CENTRAL MID ATLANTIC REGION...BRINGING WET AND
WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM BEFORE A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY...RETURNING TEMPERATURES TO BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM EST SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR REGION THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE
EASTWARD TO OUR NORTH AROUND THE HIGH CENTER. THE HRRR...NAM AND
HIRESW-ARW KEEP MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA WITH THIS FEATURE. INCREASED CLOUD COVER IN THE
NORTHWEST FOR HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL BE
HOLDING OFF UNTIL TONIGHT AS DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF APPROACHING WARM FRONT. MADE SOME MINOR
CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD WITH CURRENT FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
NOW...BUT WILL MONITOR FOR ANY CHANGES LATER THIS MORNING. ENJOY
YOUR SATURDAY !

AS OF 330 AM EST SATURDAY...

ONE MORE QUIET DAY ON TAP AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION SLIDES OFF
TO OUR EAST TODAY. LOW CLOUDS TO OUR WEST LOOK TO ROTATE AROUND THE
BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH...WHICH WILL KEEP THEM JUST WEST AND NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS
OVERSPREADING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...RESULTING IN A FAIR WEATHER DAY
WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE. SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL BE
HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATE TONIGHT AS DEEP SWLY FLOW SETS UP IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF APPROACHING WARM FRONT...AND CLOUDS MOVE IN
EN MASSE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AND WITH THE CLOUDS COMES THE
INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN...ENTERING THE FORECAST FROM THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT WILL BE RAMPING UP QUICKLY AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SATURDAY...

THE PRIMARY FOCUS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON A VIGOROUS
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE SLATED TO TRAVERSE THE REGION FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUN AFTERNOON/SUN NIGHT. THE SHORT WAVE
WILL EJECT IN ADVANCE OF A BROADER TROUGH PROGGED TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. SUN-MON. AS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
TO DEVELOP SUN...THE LEADING SHORT WAVE WILL TAKE ON A STRONG
NEGATIVE TILT AND ROTATE OUT OF THE ARKLATEX/MID-SOUTH REGION
TOWARD THE OH VALLEY SUN EVENING/OVERNIGHT. THE ANTECEDENT AIR
MASS ACROSS THE RNK CWA WILL BE DRY/COOL FROM THE REMNANT ARCTIC
HIGH HAVING DRIFTED OFFSHORE IN A FAVORABLE IN-SITU WEDGE
POSITION. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH SUN
AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN OVERRUNNING THE WARM FRONT IN AN
AREA OF SUBSTANTIAL ISENTROPIC LIFT. AS USUAL WITH THESE TYPE OF
SITUATIONS...THE WEDGE LEADS TO A STABLE ENVIRONMENT AS THE MAIN
DYNAMICS PASS THROUGH THE REGION AND THIS IS NO EXCEPTION.

CONCERNS ARISE...HOWEVER...AS A 70-80KT LLJ TRAVERSES THE AREA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE WARM FRONT/UPPER TROUGH SUN AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. SPC HAS PUSHED THE GENERAL THUNDER AREA UP TOWARD THE
BLUE RIDGE...AND A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK APPROACHING THE FAR SE
COUNTIES...NAMELY HALIFAX/CASWELL. FEEL THAT THIS WILL BE ANOTHER
SITUATION WHERE THE COOL BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN DECOUPLED FROM
THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES. MODEL
ADVERTISED INSTABILITY AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING NEAR ZERO
INSTABILITY...POSITIVE LIS...AND ZERO CAPE...BUT SUBSTANTIAL SHEAR
WITH STRONGLY CURVED HODOGRAPHS AND 30+KTS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION. A TYPICAL HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT.
HOWEVER...WITH CAPE NEAR ZERO...DO NOT FEEL THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
SUPPORT FOR TSRA AT THIS POINT AND HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAVE IT OUT
OF THE GRIDS IN COORDINATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORS.

THE GREATER CONCERN THROUGH THE SUN TIME FRAME WILL BE AS THE
STRONG LLJ TRAVERSES THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW NC/SW VA/SE WV. THIS
IS FAIRLY CLASSICAL SETUP FOR STRONG TO HIGH WINDS IN THE
SMYTH/TAZEWELL/MERCER COUNTY REGION. CURRENT ADVERTISED WIND
SPEEDS DO NOT SUPPORT A HIGH WIND WATCH AT THIS POINT WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 22KTS AND GUSTS TO AROUND 38KTS. A WIND
ADVISORY SEEMS QUITE PROBABLE THOUGH AS WE MOVE CLOSER TO THE
EVENT.

WHILE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED SUN
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS...MAINLY IN THE 18Z-06Z TIME
FRAME...OVERALL QPF REMAIN MOSTLY 1 INCH OR LESS FOR THE ENTIRE
CWA. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD FALL ACROSS UPSLOPE SOUTHEAST
FACING SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH A STRONG S-SE WIND THROUGH
THE BULK OF THE RAIN EVENT.

MONDAY...THE WARM FRONT MOVES TO THE NORTH AND A VERY DEEP 966MB SFC
LOW PRESSURE AREA CRANKS UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AS THE VIGOROUS
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THAT REGION AND PHASES
WITH THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY EAST. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A STRONG SW SFC AND BOUNDARY LOW FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION. THE
CWA WILL BE SOLIDLY IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR SURE. TEMPERATURES MAY
ACTUALLY BEGIN TO RISE OVERNIGHT SUN NIGHT WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL
WAA. WITH 850MB TEMPS +10C TO EVEN +12C ACROSS PARTS OF THE CWA
AND THE STRONG SW FLOW...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
WARM IN THE 60S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO THE 70S EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...WITH EVEN 50S IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. COMPARED TO THE
BITTER COLD OF THE PAST WEEK...IT WILL FEEL LIKE SUMMER. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A PASSING SHOWER IN THE SUMMERLIKE AIR
MASS...BUT OTHER THAN THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW...THE SOUNDINGS
SHOW A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP...SO SHOWERS WOULD MOSTLY LIKELY BE
CONFINED TO PASSING MDT CU CAPABLE OF A SPRINKLE...WHICH IS NOT
LIKELY.

WE BEGIN TO RETURN TO REALITY TUESDAY AS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN U.S. IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING
SW U.S. UPPER RIDGE. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST WITH A GRADUAL COOL DOWN EXPECTED THROUGH THE
THANKSGIVING WEEK. MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES TUE SHOULD BE A GOOD 20-30
DEGREES COOLER THAN MON...BUT NOTHING CLOSE TO OUR RECENT COLD
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EST SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO PROGRESS
FROM NEAR JAMES BAY NORTHEAST TOWARDS GREENLAND. THE SYSTEMS
TRAILING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TO NEAR THE
EAST COAT OF THE U.S. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO OFFER VARIOUS
SOLUTIONS REGARDING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS PROGGED TO HEAD
NORTH ALONG THIS FRONT...FROM THE GULF COAST STATES TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. GENERAL CONSENSUS IS NOW
THAT THIS WILL OCCUR...WITH THE ECMWF PULLING THE MOISTURE
FARTHEST BACK INLAND AND TO THE WEST...WHILE THE CANADIAN IS THE
DRIEST. THE GFS SEEMS TO BE A REASONABLE COMPROMISE AT THIS POINT.
AT ANY RATE...ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL BUCKLE THE FRONT
FROM TUE...AT THAT POINT LYING ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS...AND ALLOW
THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE PIEDMONT AT A
MINIMUM...POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST WED AS THE ALLEGHANY FRONT.
THUS...HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE POPS FOR WED ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA...APPROACHING LIKELY VALUES IN FAR EASTERN AREAS. ENOUGH
COLDER AIR WILL HAVE MADE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION FOR SOME TYPE OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN WESTERN AREAS. HOWEVER...THE WESTERN AREAS
ARE THE AREAS LEAST LIKELY TO RECEIVE PCPN WITH THIS EVENT...SO
ANY WINTER PCPN...PRIMARILY SNOW...WOULD BE MINOR AT BEST AND DOES
NOT APPEAR TO AROUSE ANY WINTER WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS POINT.
FOR AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE FORM OF RAIN THROUGHOUT THE EVENT. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...THIS COASTAL WAVE WILL BE NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
AND NO LONGER BE A FACTOR IN OUR FORECAST.

WHAT WILL BECOME A FACTOR IS YET ANOTHER DEEPENING UPPER LOW
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GUIDANCE IS OFFERING THIS ONE TO TAKE A
FARTHER SOUTH TRACK THAN ITS PREDECESSOR...DEEPEN MORE...AND FUNNEL
A STRONGER SURGE OF COLDER AIR INTO OUR REGION. AFTER AN INITIAL
ROUND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION ON
THURSDAY...ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE PREFERRED AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL TREND LOWER EACH DAY...WITH THE
BIGGEST DROP BEING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW TO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
THANKSGIVING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM EST SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THIS PERIOD.

ESSENTIALLY A NIL WEATHER FORECAST THIS TAF PACKAGE AS CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS THE PERIOD OVER THE REGION AND SLOWLY SLIDES
OFF TO OUR EAST. LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM ARE FORECAST TO ROTATE AROUND
THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH TO OUR WEST AND NORTH. MAYBE A FEW PUFFS
OF CU AT KLWB OR KBLF THIS AFTERNOON BUT DO NOT FEEL IT WARRANTS ANY
MENTION IN THE TAF. BUT MODEL UPPER LEVEL RH FIELDS CORRELATE WELL
WITH CIRRUS SEEN STREAMING IN OUR DIRECTION ON CURRENT SATELLITE
LOOP SO IT LOOKS LIKE A HIGH CIG OF BKN CIRRUS WILL PREVENT SKC FOR
SKY CONDITION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...BUT KBLF WILL SEE WINDS BACK FROM SW TO SLY AND STAY UP A
BIT TONIGHT AS THE INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AND WARM
FRONT START TO BE FELT.

TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD MOISTURE WILL START TO ENCROACH
FROM THE SOUTH. WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY LOW CLOUDS WITH THIS ISSUANCE
BUT KDAN AND POSSIBLY KBCB AND KBLF MAY HAVE MVFR CIGS ON THEIR
DOORSTEP BY 12Z SUNDAY.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING DURING THE MORNING...AND RAIN WITH MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. ALSO...STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL WINDS LATER ON SUNDAY MAY LEAD TO LLWS...ESPECIALLY THE BLF
AREA. A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR DURING MONDAY OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS
AS A DRY SLOT DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE EXITING FRONT FROM SUNDAY AND THE
NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. MONDAY INTO TUESDAY LOOK TO FEATURE QUITE
A BIT OF WIND. FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK...EXPECT PERIODS OF
MVFR CIGS ACROSS EASTERN WV/FAR SW VA...BUT MOSTLY VFR ELSEWHERE
WITH A COLDER NW FLOW.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 215 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WILL BE OUT
OF SERVICE UNTIL PARTS ARRIVE TO REPLACE THE SENSOR. UNTIL THEN
THE VISIBILITY WILL ONLY BE REPORTED WHEN THE CONTROL TOWER IS
STAFFED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...KK/MBS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...DS/RAB
AVIATION...KK/MBS
EQUIPMENT...RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 221312
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
449 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ONE MORE DAY OF FAIR WEATHER TO THE REGION
AS WE START THE WEEKEND. THEN...A STORM SYSTEM MOVING NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT INTO THE
APPALACHIANS AND CENTRAL MID ATLANTIC REGION...BRINGING WET AND
WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM BEFORE A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY...RETURNING TEMPERATURES TO BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS 330 AM EST SATURDAY...

ONE MORE QUIET DAY ON TAP AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION SLIDES OFF
TO OUR EAST TODAY. LOW CLOUDS TO OUR WEST LOOK TO ROTATE AROUND THE
BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH...WHICH WILL KEEP THEM JUST WEST AND NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS
OVERSPREADING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...RESULTING IN A FAIR WEATHER DAY
WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE. SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL BE
HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATE TONIGHT AS DEEP SWLY FLOW SETS UP IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF APPROACHING WARM FRONT...AND CLOUDS MOVE IN
EN MASSE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AND WITH THE CLOUDS COMES THE
INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN...ENTERING THE FORECAST FROM THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT WILL BE RAMPING UP QUICKLY AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SATURDAY...

THE PRIMARY FOCUS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON A VIGOROUS
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE SLATED TO TRAVERSE THE REGION FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUN AFTERNOON/SUN NIGHT. THE SHORT WAVE
WILL EJECT IN ADVANCE OF A BROADER TROUGH PROGGED TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. SUN-MON. AS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
TO DEVELOP SUN...THE LEADING SHORT WAVE WILL TAKE ON A STRONG
NEGATIVE TILT AND ROTATE OUT OF THE ARKLATEX/MID-SOUTH REGION
TOWARD THE OH VALLEY SUN EVENING/OVERNIGHT. THE ANTECEDENT AIR
MASS ACROSS THE RNK CWA WILL BE DRY/COOL FROM THE REMNANT ARCTIC
HIGH HAVING DRIFTED OFFSHORE IN A FAVORABLE IN-SITU WEDGE
POSITION. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH SUN
AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN OVERRUNNING THE WARM FRONT IN AN
AREA OF SUBSTANTIAL ISENTROPIC LIFT. AS USUAL WITH THESE TYPE OF
SITUATIONS...THE WEDGE LEADS TO A STABLE ENVIRONMENT AS THE MAIN
DYNAMICS PASS THROUGH THE REGION AND THIS IS NO EXCEPTION.

CONCERNS ARISE...HOWEVER...AS A 70-80KT LLJ TRAVERSES THE AREA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE WARM FRONT/UPPER TROUGH SUN AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. SPC HAS PUSHED THE GENERAL THUNDER AREA UP TOWARD THE
BLUE RIDGE...AND A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK APPROACHING THE FAR SE
COUNTIES...NAMELY HALIFAX/CASWELL. FEEL THAT THIS WILL BE ANOTHER
SITUATION WHERE THE COOL BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN DECOUPLED FROM
THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES. MODEL
ADVERTISED INSTABILITY AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING NEAR ZERO
INSTABILITY...POSITIVE LIS...AND ZERO CAPE...BUT SUBSTANTIAL SHEAR
WITH STRONGLY CURVED HODOGRAPHS AND 30+KTS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION. A TYPICAL HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT.
HOWEVER...WITH CAPE NEAR ZERO...DO NOT FEEL THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
SUPPORT FOR TSRA AT THIS POINT AND HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAVE IT OUT
OF THE GRIDS IN COORDINATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORS.

THE GREATER CONCERN THROUGH THE SUN TIME FRAME WILL BE AS THE
STRONG LLJ TRAVERSES THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW NC/SW VA/SE WV. THIS
IS FAIRLY CLASSICAL SETUP FOR STRONG TO HIGH WINDS IN THE
SMYTH/TAZEWELL/MERCER COUNTY REGION. CURRENT ADVERTISED WIND
SPEEDS DO NOT SUPPORT A HIGH WIND WATCH AT THIS POINT WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 22KTS AND GUSTS TO AROUND 38KTS. A WIND
ADVISORY SEEMS QUITE PROBABLE THOUGH AS WE MOVE CLOSER TO THE
EVENT.

WHILE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED SUN
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS...MAINLY IN THE 18Z-06Z TIME
FRAME...OVERALL QPF REMAIN MOSTLY 1 INCH OR LESS FOR THE ENTIRE
CWA. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD FALL ACROSS UPSLOPE SOUTHEAST
FACING SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH A STRONG S-SE WIND THROUGH
THE BULK OF THE RAIN EVENT.

MONDAY...THE WARM FRONT MOVES TO THE NORTH AND A VERY DEEP 966MB SFC
LOW PRESSURE AREA CRANKS UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AS THE VIGOROUS
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THAT REGION AND PHASES
WITH THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY EAST. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A STRONG SW SFC AND BOUNDARY LOW FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION. THE
CWA WILL BE SOLIDLY IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR SURE. TEMPERATURES MAY
ACTUALLY BEGIN TO RISE OVERNIGHT SUN NIGHT WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL
WAA. WITH 850MB TEMPS +10C TO EVEN +12C ACROSS PARTS OF THE CWA
AND THE STRONG SW FLOW...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
WARM IN THE 60S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO THE 70S EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...WITH EVEN 50S IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. COMPARED TO THE
BITTER COLD OF THE PAST WEEK...IT WILL FEEL LIKE SUMMER. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A PASSING SHOWER IN THE SUMMERLIKE AIR
MASS...BUT OTHER THAN THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW...THE SOUNDINGS
SHOW A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP...SO SHOWERS WOULD MOSTLY LIKELY BE
CONFINED TO PASSING MDT CU CAPABLE OF A SPRINKLE...WHICH IS NOT
LIKELY.

WE BEGIN TO RETURN TO REALITY TUESDAY AS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN U.S. IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING
SW U.S. UPPER RIDGE. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST WITH A GRADUAL COOL DOWN EXPECTED THROUGH THE
THANKSGIVING WEEK. MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES TUE SHOULD BE A GOOD 20-30
DEGREES COOLER THAN MON...BUT NOTHING CLOSE TO OUR RECENT COLD
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EST SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO PROGRESS
FROM NEAR JAMES BAY NORTHEAST TOWARDS GREENLAND. THE SYSTEMS
TRAILING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TO NEAR THE
EAST COAT OF THE U.S. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO OFFER VARIOUS
SOLUTIONS REGARDING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS PROGGED TO HEAD
NORTH ALONG THIS FRONT...FROM THE GULF COAST STATES TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. GENERAL CONSENSUS IS NOW
THAT THIS WILL OCCUR...WITH THE ECMWF PULLING THE MOISTURE
FARTHEST BACK INLAND AND TO THE WEST...WHILE THE CANADIAN IS THE
DRIEST. THE GFS SEEMS TO BE A REASONABLE COMPROMISE AT THIS POINT.
AT ANY RATE...ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL BUCKLE THE FRONT
FROM TUE...AT THAT POINT LYING ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS...AND ALLOW
THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE PIEDMONT AT A
MINIMUM...POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST WED AS THE ALLEGHANY FRONT.
THUS...HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE POPS FOR WED ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA...APPROACHING LIKELY VALUES IN FAR EASTERN AREAS. ENOUGH
COLDER AIR WILL HAVE MADE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION FOR SOME TYPE OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN WESTERN AREAS. HOWEVER...THE WESTERN AREAS
ARE THE AREAS LEAST LIKELY TO RECEIVE PCPN WITH THIS EVENT...SO
ANY WINTER PCPN...PRIMARILY SNOW...WOULD BE MINOR AT BEST AND DOES
NOT APPEAR TO AROUSE ANY WINTER WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS POINT.
FOR AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE FORM OF RAIN THROUGHOUT THE EVENT. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...THIS COASTAL WAVE WILL BE NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
AND NO LONGER BE A FACTOR IN OUR FORECAST.

WHAT WILL BECOME A FACTOR IS YET ANOTHER DEEPENING UPPER LOW
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GUIDANCE IS OFFERING THIS ONE TO TAKE A
FARTHER SOUTH TRACK THAN ITS PREDECESSOR...DEEPEN MORE...AND FUNNEL
A STRONGER SURGE OF COLDER AIR INTO OUR REGION. AFTER AN INITIAL
ROUND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION ON
THURSDAY...ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE PREFERRED AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL TREND LOWER EACH DAY...WITH THE
BIGGEST DROP BEING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW TO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
THANKSGIVING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM EST SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THIS PERIOD.

ESSENTIALLY A NIL WEATHER FORECAST THIS TAF PACKAGE AS CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS THE PERIOD OVER THE REGION AND SLOWLY SLIDES
OFF TO OUR EAST. LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM ARE FORECAST TO ROTATE AROUND
THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH TO OUR WEST AND NORTH. MAYBE A FEW PUFFS
OF CU AT KLWB OR KBLF THIS AFTERNOON BUT DO NOT FEEL IT WARRANTS ANY
MENTION IN THE TAF. BUT MODEL UPPER LEVEL RH FIELDS CORRELATE WELL
WITH CIRRUS SEEN STREAMING IN OUR DIRECTION ON CURRENT SATELLITE
LOOP SO IT LOOKS LIKE A HIGH CIG OF BKN CIRRUS WILL PREVENT SKC FOR
SKY CONDITION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...BUT KBLF WILL SEE WINDS BACK FROM SW TO SLY AND STAY UP A
BIT TONIGHT AS THE INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AND WARM
FRONT START TO BE FELT.

TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD MOISTURE WILL START TO ENCROACH
FROM THE SOUTH. WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY LOW CLOUDS WITH THIS ISSUANCE
BUT KDAN AND POSSIBLY KBCB AND KBLF MAY HAVE MVFR CIGS ON THEIR
DOORSTEP BY 12Z SUNDAY.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING DURING THE MORNING...AND RAIN WITH MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. ALSO...STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL WINDS LATER ON SUNDAY MAY LEAD TO LLWS...ESPECIALLY THE BLF
AREA. A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR DURING MONDAY OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS
AS A DRY SLOT DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE EXITING FRONT FROM SUNDAY AND THE
NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. MONDAY INTO TUESDAY LOOK TO FEATURE QUITE
A BIT OF WIND. FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK...EXPECT PERIODS OF
MVFR CIGS ACROSS EASTERN WV/FAR SW VA...BUT MOSTLY VFR ELSEWHERE
WITH A COLDER NW FLOW.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 215 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WILL BE OUT
OF SERVICE UNTIL PARTS ARRIVE TO REPLACE THE SENSOR. UNTIL THEN
THE VISIBILITY WILL ONLY BE REPORTED WHEN THE CONTROL TOWER IS
STAFFED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...DS/RAB
AVIATION...KK/MBS
EQUIPMENT...RAB



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221156
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
656 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING...THEN
SLIDES OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH AND ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HI PRES (~1034MB) CENTERED OVR THE FA ATTM...AND WILL RMN SO
THROUGH THE MRNG HRS. A (VERY) COLD START UNDER SKC AND NR CALM
WNDS W/ MOST LO TEMPS FM THE UPR TEENS TO THE M20S. THE HI IS SLO
TO WEAKEN/DRIFT OFF THE CST LATER TDA. LGT/VRB WNDS BECOME SSW
RESULTING IN MODERATION. SKY RMNS MNLY SKC THROUGH THIS AFTN. HI
TEMPS FM THE U40S N TO L50S FAR SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND THICKEN FM THE SW LATE TNGT
THROUGH MIDDAY SUN...AS GULF CST MOISTURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT LIFTS NE THROUGH THE SE CONUS. CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY SAT NGT WITH LOWS RANGING THRU THE 30S.

THE WARM FRONT WITH STRONG VERTICAL MOTION AND ASSOCIATED
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE WILL LIFT NE AND ACRS THE MDATLC RGN SUN
SUN NGT. HAVE POPS FOR RAIN INCREASING TO 30-50% SW 1/2 OF FA
DURING SUN AFTN...THEN TO 80-90% EVERYWHERE BETWEEN 00Z-06Z
MON...AND FM ABT 70% NE TO 40% SW BETWEEN 06Z-12Z MON. ADDED SLGT
CHC T FOR CSTL NE NC (AND SPC HAS SLGT CHC SVR). TIGHTENING PRES
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN BREEZY/WINDY CONDS...ESP INVOF CST. GUSTS
FM SSE DIRECTION TO 30 TO 40 MPH PSBL. HI TEMPS SUN RANGING FM THE
L/M50S NW TO THE L60S SE. LOWS SUN NGT RANGING THRU THE 50S...W/
READINGS LIKELY TO RISE AFT MDNGT. QPF AVGG 1/2 TO 1 INCH.

THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NNE OF THE REGION AT 12Z MON...WITH A
CDFNT PUSHING TWD/INTO OUR EXTRM WRN CNTIES BY 00Z TUE. AFTER LWR
CLOUDS AND PSBL FOG MON MRNG...SW WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE CDFNT
BECOME GUSTY...AND WILL HELP TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 70S UNDER A
PARTLY SUNNY SKY. FOR NOW...POPS AOB 14% ON MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST BY 12Z TUE. BNDRY THEN
STALLS OVR THE GULF STREAM TUE & WED IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF
S/W`S PROGGED TO DVLP THEN MOVE NE ALONG IT. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRS
(OF PACIFIC ORIGIN) OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION BUILDS S&E THRU
THE MID WEEK PRD. UPR LVL LOW AND TRAILING CDFRNT PROGGED TO DIVE
SE FROM THE GT LAKES THU WITH HIGH PRS BUILDING INTO THE ARA FRI.

GRIDS WILL INDICATE SLGHT CHC SHWRS WITH FROPA MONDAY NIGHT. COOLER
AS CAA SET IN BEHIND THE FRNT. LOWS M-U40S NWRN HALF 50-55 SERN
HALF. TUE THRU WED FCST DEPENDS ON HOW FAR N&W MSTR GETS FROM THE
DVLPNG LOW OFF THE SERN COAST. GFS HAS A TRACK A BIT FRTHR EAST
KEEPING THE PCPN CONFINED TO SERN CSTL AREAS BY LATE TUE...AND GNRLY
E OF I95 WED. ECMWF SLOWER WITH A DRY TUE...PCPN MOVG ACROSS SERN
CSTL AREAS TUE NIGHT THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA WED BEFORE
PULLING OUT TO SEAS WED NIGHT.

TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF WITH THE COASTAL LOW TUE & WED...BUT THNK
IT IS OVERDONE WRT THE DEEPENING OF THE LOW OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST
TURKEY DAY. WILL INDICATE 20-30 POP ACROSS SERN CSTL AREAS TUE. DRY
ELSEWHERE. HIGHS M50S-L60S. A GENERAL RAIN OVRSPRDS THE FA SE-NW
TUES NIGHT AND WED...THEN ENDS WED EVE AS THE LOW PULLS FRTHR
OFFSHORE. PCPN ALL LIQUID WITH THIS EVENT. LOWS TUE NIGHT M30S-M40S.
HIGHS WED M40S-L50S. PCPN ENDS WED EVE BEFORE THE COLD AIR ARRIVES.
LOWS AFTER THE RAIN ENDS FALL INTO THE U20S-L30S W OF THE
BAY...M-U30S SERN CSTL AREAS.

CLIPPER TYPE S/W DIVES SE THU. ENUF MSTR SEEN WITH THIS FTR FOR AT
LEAST SLGHT CHC DIURNAL SHWRS (PSBLY MIXED WITH IP???) THANKSGIVING
DAY. HIGHS 45-50. DRYING OUT THURS NIGHT AND FRI. LOWS U20S-M30S
XCPT 35-40 SERN CSTL AREAS. HIGHS FRI M-U40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR AND DRY WX THRU THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. OTHER THAN A FEW HI CLOUDS
TDA...MAINLY SKC WITH 5-10 KT S/SW WINDS. HI PRES SLIDES OFF THE CST
TDA...AND WILL PUSH FARTHER OFFSHORE INTO SUN. A COMPLEX WX SYSTM
IS EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN AND MVFR/IFR CONDS LATE SUN
INTO MON MRNG.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA OVR SRN CSTL WTRS HAS EXPIRED AS SEAS DROPPED BLO 5 FT. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNG...EXPECT 2-3 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS WITH
LGT WINDS AS STRONG SFC HI PRES CENTERS OVR THE WTRS. THE HI
SLIDES FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS AFTN...WITH WINDS BCMG SLY AT 10-15 KT.
NEXT LO PRES SYSTM PUSHES NE TOWARDS THE OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
SUN/SUN NGT...WITH S/SE FLOW RAMPING UP OVR THE LOCAL WTRS AS THE
PRES GRADIENT INCREASES. SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUN NGT INTO MON
IN RESPONSE TO THIS...AND MAY CONTINUE UNTIL MON NGT WHEN THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRNT CROSSES THE AREA. GUSTS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE
OVR THE OCEAN AS WELL. WITH THIS BEING 4TH PERIOD WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW. WAVES OVR THE BAY WILL REACH 3-4 FT WITH SEAS
OVR CSTL WTRS UP TO 6-8 FT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED MONDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

RIC 76 1979
ORF 78 1983
SBY 78 1931
ECG 77 1983

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB/TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221156
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
656 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING...THEN
SLIDES OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH AND ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HI PRES (~1034MB) CENTERED OVR THE FA ATTM...AND WILL RMN SO
THROUGH THE MRNG HRS. A (VERY) COLD START UNDER SKC AND NR CALM
WNDS W/ MOST LO TEMPS FM THE UPR TEENS TO THE M20S. THE HI IS SLO
TO WEAKEN/DRIFT OFF THE CST LATER TDA. LGT/VRB WNDS BECOME SSW
RESULTING IN MODERATION. SKY RMNS MNLY SKC THROUGH THIS AFTN. HI
TEMPS FM THE U40S N TO L50S FAR SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND THICKEN FM THE SW LATE TNGT
THROUGH MIDDAY SUN...AS GULF CST MOISTURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT LIFTS NE THROUGH THE SE CONUS. CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY SAT NGT WITH LOWS RANGING THRU THE 30S.

THE WARM FRONT WITH STRONG VERTICAL MOTION AND ASSOCIATED
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE WILL LIFT NE AND ACRS THE MDATLC RGN SUN
SUN NGT. HAVE POPS FOR RAIN INCREASING TO 30-50% SW 1/2 OF FA
DURING SUN AFTN...THEN TO 80-90% EVERYWHERE BETWEEN 00Z-06Z
MON...AND FM ABT 70% NE TO 40% SW BETWEEN 06Z-12Z MON. ADDED SLGT
CHC T FOR CSTL NE NC (AND SPC HAS SLGT CHC SVR). TIGHTENING PRES
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN BREEZY/WINDY CONDS...ESP INVOF CST. GUSTS
FM SSE DIRECTION TO 30 TO 40 MPH PSBL. HI TEMPS SUN RANGING FM THE
L/M50S NW TO THE L60S SE. LOWS SUN NGT RANGING THRU THE 50S...W/
READINGS LIKELY TO RISE AFT MDNGT. QPF AVGG 1/2 TO 1 INCH.

THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NNE OF THE REGION AT 12Z MON...WITH A
CDFNT PUSHING TWD/INTO OUR EXTRM WRN CNTIES BY 00Z TUE. AFTER LWR
CLOUDS AND PSBL FOG MON MRNG...SW WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE CDFNT
BECOME GUSTY...AND WILL HELP TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 70S UNDER A
PARTLY SUNNY SKY. FOR NOW...POPS AOB 14% ON MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST BY 12Z TUE. BNDRY THEN
STALLS OVR THE GULF STREAM TUE & WED IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF
S/W`S PROGGED TO DVLP THEN MOVE NE ALONG IT. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRS
(OF PACIFIC ORIGIN) OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION BUILDS S&E THRU
THE MID WEEK PRD. UPR LVL LOW AND TRAILING CDFRNT PROGGED TO DIVE
SE FROM THE GT LAKES THU WITH HIGH PRS BUILDING INTO THE ARA FRI.

GRIDS WILL INDICATE SLGHT CHC SHWRS WITH FROPA MONDAY NIGHT. COOLER
AS CAA SET IN BEHIND THE FRNT. LOWS M-U40S NWRN HALF 50-55 SERN
HALF. TUE THRU WED FCST DEPENDS ON HOW FAR N&W MSTR GETS FROM THE
DVLPNG LOW OFF THE SERN COAST. GFS HAS A TRACK A BIT FRTHR EAST
KEEPING THE PCPN CONFINED TO SERN CSTL AREAS BY LATE TUE...AND GNRLY
E OF I95 WED. ECMWF SLOWER WITH A DRY TUE...PCPN MOVG ACROSS SERN
CSTL AREAS TUE NIGHT THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA WED BEFORE
PULLING OUT TO SEAS WED NIGHT.

TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF WITH THE COASTAL LOW TUE & WED...BUT THNK
IT IS OVERDONE WRT THE DEEPENING OF THE LOW OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST
TURKEY DAY. WILL INDICATE 20-30 POP ACROSS SERN CSTL AREAS TUE. DRY
ELSEWHERE. HIGHS M50S-L60S. A GENERAL RAIN OVRSPRDS THE FA SE-NW
TUES NIGHT AND WED...THEN ENDS WED EVE AS THE LOW PULLS FRTHR
OFFSHORE. PCPN ALL LIQUID WITH THIS EVENT. LOWS TUE NIGHT M30S-M40S.
HIGHS WED M40S-L50S. PCPN ENDS WED EVE BEFORE THE COLD AIR ARRIVES.
LOWS AFTER THE RAIN ENDS FALL INTO THE U20S-L30S W OF THE
BAY...M-U30S SERN CSTL AREAS.

CLIPPER TYPE S/W DIVES SE THU. ENUF MSTR SEEN WITH THIS FTR FOR AT
LEAST SLGHT CHC DIURNAL SHWRS (PSBLY MIXED WITH IP???) THANKSGIVING
DAY. HIGHS 45-50. DRYING OUT THURS NIGHT AND FRI. LOWS U20S-M30S
XCPT 35-40 SERN CSTL AREAS. HIGHS FRI M-U40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR AND DRY WX THRU THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. OTHER THAN A FEW HI CLOUDS
TDA...MAINLY SKC WITH 5-10 KT S/SW WINDS. HI PRES SLIDES OFF THE CST
TDA...AND WILL PUSH FARTHER OFFSHORE INTO SUN. A COMPLEX WX SYSTM
IS EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN AND MVFR/IFR CONDS LATE SUN
INTO MON MRNG.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA OVR SRN CSTL WTRS HAS EXPIRED AS SEAS DROPPED BLO 5 FT. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNG...EXPECT 2-3 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS WITH
LGT WINDS AS STRONG SFC HI PRES CENTERS OVR THE WTRS. THE HI
SLIDES FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS AFTN...WITH WINDS BCMG SLY AT 10-15 KT.
NEXT LO PRES SYSTM PUSHES NE TOWARDS THE OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
SUN/SUN NGT...WITH S/SE FLOW RAMPING UP OVR THE LOCAL WTRS AS THE
PRES GRADIENT INCREASES. SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUN NGT INTO MON
IN RESPONSE TO THIS...AND MAY CONTINUE UNTIL MON NGT WHEN THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRNT CROSSES THE AREA. GUSTS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE
OVR THE OCEAN AS WELL. WITH THIS BEING 4TH PERIOD WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW. WAVES OVR THE BAY WILL REACH 3-4 FT WITH SEAS
OVR CSTL WTRS UP TO 6-8 FT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED MONDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

RIC 76 1979
ORF 78 1983
SBY 78 1931
ECG 77 1983

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB/TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221156
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
656 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING...THEN
SLIDES OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH AND ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HI PRES (~1034MB) CENTERED OVR THE FA ATTM...AND WILL RMN SO
THROUGH THE MRNG HRS. A (VERY) COLD START UNDER SKC AND NR CALM
WNDS W/ MOST LO TEMPS FM THE UPR TEENS TO THE M20S. THE HI IS SLO
TO WEAKEN/DRIFT OFF THE CST LATER TDA. LGT/VRB WNDS BECOME SSW
RESULTING IN MODERATION. SKY RMNS MNLY SKC THROUGH THIS AFTN. HI
TEMPS FM THE U40S N TO L50S FAR SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND THICKEN FM THE SW LATE TNGT
THROUGH MIDDAY SUN...AS GULF CST MOISTURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT LIFTS NE THROUGH THE SE CONUS. CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY SAT NGT WITH LOWS RANGING THRU THE 30S.

THE WARM FRONT WITH STRONG VERTICAL MOTION AND ASSOCIATED
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE WILL LIFT NE AND ACRS THE MDATLC RGN SUN
SUN NGT. HAVE POPS FOR RAIN INCREASING TO 30-50% SW 1/2 OF FA
DURING SUN AFTN...THEN TO 80-90% EVERYWHERE BETWEEN 00Z-06Z
MON...AND FM ABT 70% NE TO 40% SW BETWEEN 06Z-12Z MON. ADDED SLGT
CHC T FOR CSTL NE NC (AND SPC HAS SLGT CHC SVR). TIGHTENING PRES
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN BREEZY/WINDY CONDS...ESP INVOF CST. GUSTS
FM SSE DIRECTION TO 30 TO 40 MPH PSBL. HI TEMPS SUN RANGING FM THE
L/M50S NW TO THE L60S SE. LOWS SUN NGT RANGING THRU THE 50S...W/
READINGS LIKELY TO RISE AFT MDNGT. QPF AVGG 1/2 TO 1 INCH.

THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NNE OF THE REGION AT 12Z MON...WITH A
CDFNT PUSHING TWD/INTO OUR EXTRM WRN CNTIES BY 00Z TUE. AFTER LWR
CLOUDS AND PSBL FOG MON MRNG...SW WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE CDFNT
BECOME GUSTY...AND WILL HELP TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 70S UNDER A
PARTLY SUNNY SKY. FOR NOW...POPS AOB 14% ON MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST BY 12Z TUE. BNDRY THEN
STALLS OVR THE GULF STREAM TUE & WED IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF
S/W`S PROGGED TO DVLP THEN MOVE NE ALONG IT. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRS
(OF PACIFIC ORIGIN) OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION BUILDS S&E THRU
THE MID WEEK PRD. UPR LVL LOW AND TRAILING CDFRNT PROGGED TO DIVE
SE FROM THE GT LAKES THU WITH HIGH PRS BUILDING INTO THE ARA FRI.

GRIDS WILL INDICATE SLGHT CHC SHWRS WITH FROPA MONDAY NIGHT. COOLER
AS CAA SET IN BEHIND THE FRNT. LOWS M-U40S NWRN HALF 50-55 SERN
HALF. TUE THRU WED FCST DEPENDS ON HOW FAR N&W MSTR GETS FROM THE
DVLPNG LOW OFF THE SERN COAST. GFS HAS A TRACK A BIT FRTHR EAST
KEEPING THE PCPN CONFINED TO SERN CSTL AREAS BY LATE TUE...AND GNRLY
E OF I95 WED. ECMWF SLOWER WITH A DRY TUE...PCPN MOVG ACROSS SERN
CSTL AREAS TUE NIGHT THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA WED BEFORE
PULLING OUT TO SEAS WED NIGHT.

TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF WITH THE COASTAL LOW TUE & WED...BUT THNK
IT IS OVERDONE WRT THE DEEPENING OF THE LOW OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST
TURKEY DAY. WILL INDICATE 20-30 POP ACROSS SERN CSTL AREAS TUE. DRY
ELSEWHERE. HIGHS M50S-L60S. A GENERAL RAIN OVRSPRDS THE FA SE-NW
TUES NIGHT AND WED...THEN ENDS WED EVE AS THE LOW PULLS FRTHR
OFFSHORE. PCPN ALL LIQUID WITH THIS EVENT. LOWS TUE NIGHT M30S-M40S.
HIGHS WED M40S-L50S. PCPN ENDS WED EVE BEFORE THE COLD AIR ARRIVES.
LOWS AFTER THE RAIN ENDS FALL INTO THE U20S-L30S W OF THE
BAY...M-U30S SERN CSTL AREAS.

CLIPPER TYPE S/W DIVES SE THU. ENUF MSTR SEEN WITH THIS FTR FOR AT
LEAST SLGHT CHC DIURNAL SHWRS (PSBLY MIXED WITH IP???) THANKSGIVING
DAY. HIGHS 45-50. DRYING OUT THURS NIGHT AND FRI. LOWS U20S-M30S
XCPT 35-40 SERN CSTL AREAS. HIGHS FRI M-U40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR AND DRY WX THRU THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. OTHER THAN A FEW HI CLOUDS
TDA...MAINLY SKC WITH 5-10 KT S/SW WINDS. HI PRES SLIDES OFF THE CST
TDA...AND WILL PUSH FARTHER OFFSHORE INTO SUN. A COMPLEX WX SYSTM
IS EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN AND MVFR/IFR CONDS LATE SUN
INTO MON MRNG.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA OVR SRN CSTL WTRS HAS EXPIRED AS SEAS DROPPED BLO 5 FT. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNG...EXPECT 2-3 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS WITH
LGT WINDS AS STRONG SFC HI PRES CENTERS OVR THE WTRS. THE HI
SLIDES FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS AFTN...WITH WINDS BCMG SLY AT 10-15 KT.
NEXT LO PRES SYSTM PUSHES NE TOWARDS THE OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
SUN/SUN NGT...WITH S/SE FLOW RAMPING UP OVR THE LOCAL WTRS AS THE
PRES GRADIENT INCREASES. SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUN NGT INTO MON
IN RESPONSE TO THIS...AND MAY CONTINUE UNTIL MON NGT WHEN THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRNT CROSSES THE AREA. GUSTS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE
OVR THE OCEAN AS WELL. WITH THIS BEING 4TH PERIOD WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW. WAVES OVR THE BAY WILL REACH 3-4 FT WITH SEAS
OVR CSTL WTRS UP TO 6-8 FT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED MONDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

RIC 76 1979
ORF 78 1983
SBY 78 1931
ECG 77 1983

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB/TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221156
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
656 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING...THEN
SLIDES OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH AND ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HI PRES (~1034MB) CENTERED OVR THE FA ATTM...AND WILL RMN SO
THROUGH THE MRNG HRS. A (VERY) COLD START UNDER SKC AND NR CALM
WNDS W/ MOST LO TEMPS FM THE UPR TEENS TO THE M20S. THE HI IS SLO
TO WEAKEN/DRIFT OFF THE CST LATER TDA. LGT/VRB WNDS BECOME SSW
RESULTING IN MODERATION. SKY RMNS MNLY SKC THROUGH THIS AFTN. HI
TEMPS FM THE U40S N TO L50S FAR SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND THICKEN FM THE SW LATE TNGT
THROUGH MIDDAY SUN...AS GULF CST MOISTURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT LIFTS NE THROUGH THE SE CONUS. CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY SAT NGT WITH LOWS RANGING THRU THE 30S.

THE WARM FRONT WITH STRONG VERTICAL MOTION AND ASSOCIATED
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE WILL LIFT NE AND ACRS THE MDATLC RGN SUN
SUN NGT. HAVE POPS FOR RAIN INCREASING TO 30-50% SW 1/2 OF FA
DURING SUN AFTN...THEN TO 80-90% EVERYWHERE BETWEEN 00Z-06Z
MON...AND FM ABT 70% NE TO 40% SW BETWEEN 06Z-12Z MON. ADDED SLGT
CHC T FOR CSTL NE NC (AND SPC HAS SLGT CHC SVR). TIGHTENING PRES
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN BREEZY/WINDY CONDS...ESP INVOF CST. GUSTS
FM SSE DIRECTION TO 30 TO 40 MPH PSBL. HI TEMPS SUN RANGING FM THE
L/M50S NW TO THE L60S SE. LOWS SUN NGT RANGING THRU THE 50S...W/
READINGS LIKELY TO RISE AFT MDNGT. QPF AVGG 1/2 TO 1 INCH.

THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NNE OF THE REGION AT 12Z MON...WITH A
CDFNT PUSHING TWD/INTO OUR EXTRM WRN CNTIES BY 00Z TUE. AFTER LWR
CLOUDS AND PSBL FOG MON MRNG...SW WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE CDFNT
BECOME GUSTY...AND WILL HELP TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 70S UNDER A
PARTLY SUNNY SKY. FOR NOW...POPS AOB 14% ON MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST BY 12Z TUE. BNDRY THEN
STALLS OVR THE GULF STREAM TUE & WED IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF
S/W`S PROGGED TO DVLP THEN MOVE NE ALONG IT. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRS
(OF PACIFIC ORIGIN) OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION BUILDS S&E THRU
THE MID WEEK PRD. UPR LVL LOW AND TRAILING CDFRNT PROGGED TO DIVE
SE FROM THE GT LAKES THU WITH HIGH PRS BUILDING INTO THE ARA FRI.

GRIDS WILL INDICATE SLGHT CHC SHWRS WITH FROPA MONDAY NIGHT. COOLER
AS CAA SET IN BEHIND THE FRNT. LOWS M-U40S NWRN HALF 50-55 SERN
HALF. TUE THRU WED FCST DEPENDS ON HOW FAR N&W MSTR GETS FROM THE
DVLPNG LOW OFF THE SERN COAST. GFS HAS A TRACK A BIT FRTHR EAST
KEEPING THE PCPN CONFINED TO SERN CSTL AREAS BY LATE TUE...AND GNRLY
E OF I95 WED. ECMWF SLOWER WITH A DRY TUE...PCPN MOVG ACROSS SERN
CSTL AREAS TUE NIGHT THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA WED BEFORE
PULLING OUT TO SEAS WED NIGHT.

TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF WITH THE COASTAL LOW TUE & WED...BUT THNK
IT IS OVERDONE WRT THE DEEPENING OF THE LOW OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST
TURKEY DAY. WILL INDICATE 20-30 POP ACROSS SERN CSTL AREAS TUE. DRY
ELSEWHERE. HIGHS M50S-L60S. A GENERAL RAIN OVRSPRDS THE FA SE-NW
TUES NIGHT AND WED...THEN ENDS WED EVE AS THE LOW PULLS FRTHR
OFFSHORE. PCPN ALL LIQUID WITH THIS EVENT. LOWS TUE NIGHT M30S-M40S.
HIGHS WED M40S-L50S. PCPN ENDS WED EVE BEFORE THE COLD AIR ARRIVES.
LOWS AFTER THE RAIN ENDS FALL INTO THE U20S-L30S W OF THE
BAY...M-U30S SERN CSTL AREAS.

CLIPPER TYPE S/W DIVES SE THU. ENUF MSTR SEEN WITH THIS FTR FOR AT
LEAST SLGHT CHC DIURNAL SHWRS (PSBLY MIXED WITH IP???) THANKSGIVING
DAY. HIGHS 45-50. DRYING OUT THURS NIGHT AND FRI. LOWS U20S-M30S
XCPT 35-40 SERN CSTL AREAS. HIGHS FRI M-U40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR AND DRY WX THRU THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. OTHER THAN A FEW HI CLOUDS
TDA...MAINLY SKC WITH 5-10 KT S/SW WINDS. HI PRES SLIDES OFF THE CST
TDA...AND WILL PUSH FARTHER OFFSHORE INTO SUN. A COMPLEX WX SYSTM
IS EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN AND MVFR/IFR CONDS LATE SUN
INTO MON MRNG.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA OVR SRN CSTL WTRS HAS EXPIRED AS SEAS DROPPED BLO 5 FT. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNG...EXPECT 2-3 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS WITH
LGT WINDS AS STRONG SFC HI PRES CENTERS OVR THE WTRS. THE HI
SLIDES FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS AFTN...WITH WINDS BCMG SLY AT 10-15 KT.
NEXT LO PRES SYSTM PUSHES NE TOWARDS THE OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
SUN/SUN NGT...WITH S/SE FLOW RAMPING UP OVR THE LOCAL WTRS AS THE
PRES GRADIENT INCREASES. SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUN NGT INTO MON
IN RESPONSE TO THIS...AND MAY CONTINUE UNTIL MON NGT WHEN THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRNT CROSSES THE AREA. GUSTS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE
OVR THE OCEAN AS WELL. WITH THIS BEING 4TH PERIOD WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW. WAVES OVR THE BAY WILL REACH 3-4 FT WITH SEAS
OVR CSTL WTRS UP TO 6-8 FT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED MONDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

RIC 76 1979
ORF 78 1983
SBY 78 1931
ECG 77 1983

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB/TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221109
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
609 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING...THEN
SLIDES OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH AND ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HI PRES (~1034MB) CENTERED OVR THE FA ATTM...AND WILL RMN SO
THROUGH THE MRNG HRS. A (VERY) COLD START UNDER SKC AND NR CALM
WNDS W/ MOST LO TEMPS FM THE UPR TEENS TO THE M20S. THE HI IS SLO
TO WEAKEN/DRIFT OFF THE CST LATER TDA. LGT/VRB WNDS BECOME SSW
RESULTING IN MODERATION. SKY RMNS MNLY SKC THROUGH THIS AFTN. HI
TEMPS FM THE U40S N TO L50S FAR SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND THICKEN FM THE SW LATE TNGT
THROUGH MIDDAY SUN...AS GULF CST MOISTURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT LIFTS NE THROUGH THE SE CONUS. CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY SAT NGT WITH LOWS RANGING THRU THE 30S.

THE WARM FRONT WITH STRONG VERTICAL MOTION AND ASSOCIATED
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE WILL LIFT NE AND ACRS THE MDATLC RGN SUN
SUN NGT. HAVE POPS FOR RAIN INCREASING TO 30-50% SW 1/2 OF FA
DURING SUN AFTN...THEN TO 80-90% EVERYWHERE BETWEEN 00Z-06Z
MON...AND FM ABT 70% NE TO 40% SW BETWEEN 06Z-12Z MON. ADDED SLGT
CHC T FOR CSTL NE NC (AND SPC HAS SLGT CHC SVR). TIGHTENING PRES
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN BREEZY/WINDY CONDS...ESP INVOF CST. GUSTS
FM SSE DIRECTION TO 30 TO 40 MPH PSBL. HI TEMPS SUN RANGING FM THE
L/M50S NW TO THE L60S SE. LOWS SUN NGT RANGING THRU THE 50S...W/
READINGS LIKELY TO RISE AFT MDNGT. QPF AVGG 1/2 TO 1 INCH.

THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NNE OF THE REGION AT 12Z MON...WITH A
CDFNT PUSHING TWD/INTO OUR EXTRM WRN CNTIES BY 00Z TUE. AFTER LWR
CLOUDS AND PSBL FOG MON MRNG...SW WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE CDFNT
BECOME GUSTY...AND WILL HELP TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 70S UNDER A
PARTLY SUNNY SKY. FOR NOW...POPS AOB 14% ON MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST BY 12Z TUE. BNDRY THEN
STALLS OVR THE GULF STREAM TUE & WED IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF
S/W`S PROGGED TO DVLP THEN MOVE NE ALONG IT. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRS
(OF PACIFIC ORIGIN) OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION BUILDS S&E THRU
THE MID WEEK PRD. UPR LVL LOW AND TRAILING CDFRNT PROGGED TO DIVE
SE FROM THE GT LAKES THU WITH HIGH PRS BUILDING INTO THE ARA FRI.

GRIDS WILL INDICATE SLGHT CHC SHWRS WITH FROPA MONDAY NIGHT. COOLER
AS CAA SET IN BEHIND THE FRNT. LOWS M-U40S NWRN HALF 50-55 SERN
HALF. TUE THRU WED FCST DEPENDS ON HOW FAR N&W MSTR GETS FROM THE
DVLPNG LOW OFF THE SERN COAST. GFS HAS A TRACK A BIT FRTHR EAST
KEEPING THE PCPN CONFINED TO SERN CSTL AREAS BY LATE TUE...AND GNRLY
E OF I95 WED. ECMWF SLOWER WITH A DRY TUE...PCPN MOVG ACROSS SERN
CSTL AREAS TUE NIGHT THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA WED BEFORE
PULLING OUT TO SEAS WED NIGHT.

TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF WITH THE COASTAL LOW TUE & WED...BUT THNK
IT IS OVERDONE WRT THE DEEPENING OF THE LOW OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST
TURKEY DAY. WILL INDICATE 20-30 POP ACROSS SERN CSTL AREAS TUE. DRY
ELSEWHERE. HIGHS M50S-L60S. A GENERAL RAIN OVRSPRDS THE FA SE-NW
TUES NIGHT AND WED...THEN ENDS WED EVE AS THE LOW PULLS FRTHR
OFFSHORE. PCPN ALL LIQUID WITH THIS EVENT. LOWS TUE NIGHT M30S-M40S.
HIGHS WED M40S-L50S. PCPN ENDS WED EVE BEFORE THE COLD AIR ARRIVES.
LOWS AFTER THE RAIN ENDS FALL INTO THE U20S-L30S W OF THE
BAY...M-U30S SERN CSTL AREAS.

CLIPPER TYPE S/W DIVES SE THU. ENUF MSTR SEEN WITH THIS FTR FOR AT
LEAST SLGHT CHC DIURNAL SHWRS (PSBLY MIXED WITH IP???) THANKSGIVING
DAY. HIGHS 45-50. DRYING OUT THURS NIGHT AND FRI. LOWS U20S-M30S
XCPT 35-40 SERN CSTL AREAS. HIGHS FRI M-U40S.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS WITH MOSTLY CLR SKY AND LIGHT
WIND. LOW DEWPTS MEAN NO FOG IS EXPECTED. WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT
OUT OF THE N-E AND WILL GRADUALLY SHFT TO SW BY THIS AFTN. HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TDA...MOVING WELL
OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY.

A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN AND
MVFR/IFR CONDS LATE SUN INTO MON MRNG.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA OVR SRN CSTL WTRS HAS EXPIRED AS SEAS DROPPED BLO 5 FT. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNG...EXPECT 2-3 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS WITH
LGT WINDS AS STRONG SFC HI PRES CENTERS OVR THE WTRS. THE HI
SLIDES FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS AFTN...WITH WINDS BCMG SLY AT 10-15 KT.
NEXT LO PRES SYSTM PUSHES NE TOWARDS THE OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
SUN/SUN NGT...WITH S/SE FLOW RAMPING UP OVR THE LOCAL WTRS AS THE
PRES GRADIENT INCREASES. SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUN NGT INTO MON
IN RESPONSE TO THIS...AND MAY CONTINUE UNTIL MON NGT WHEN THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRNT CROSSES THE AREA. GUSTS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE
OVR THE OCEAN AS WELL. WITH THIS BEING 4TH PERIOD WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW. WAVES OVR THE BAY WILL REACH 3-4 FT WITH SEAS
OVR CSTL WTRS UP TO 6-8 FT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED MONDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

RIC 76 1979
ORF 78 1983
SBY 78 1931
ECG 77 1983

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB/TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...












000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221109
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
609 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING...THEN
SLIDES OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH AND ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HI PRES (~1034MB) CENTERED OVR THE FA ATTM...AND WILL RMN SO
THROUGH THE MRNG HRS. A (VERY) COLD START UNDER SKC AND NR CALM
WNDS W/ MOST LO TEMPS FM THE UPR TEENS TO THE M20S. THE HI IS SLO
TO WEAKEN/DRIFT OFF THE CST LATER TDA. LGT/VRB WNDS BECOME SSW
RESULTING IN MODERATION. SKY RMNS MNLY SKC THROUGH THIS AFTN. HI
TEMPS FM THE U40S N TO L50S FAR SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND THICKEN FM THE SW LATE TNGT
THROUGH MIDDAY SUN...AS GULF CST MOISTURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT LIFTS NE THROUGH THE SE CONUS. CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY SAT NGT WITH LOWS RANGING THRU THE 30S.

THE WARM FRONT WITH STRONG VERTICAL MOTION AND ASSOCIATED
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE WILL LIFT NE AND ACRS THE MDATLC RGN SUN
SUN NGT. HAVE POPS FOR RAIN INCREASING TO 30-50% SW 1/2 OF FA
DURING SUN AFTN...THEN TO 80-90% EVERYWHERE BETWEEN 00Z-06Z
MON...AND FM ABT 70% NE TO 40% SW BETWEEN 06Z-12Z MON. ADDED SLGT
CHC T FOR CSTL NE NC (AND SPC HAS SLGT CHC SVR). TIGHTENING PRES
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN BREEZY/WINDY CONDS...ESP INVOF CST. GUSTS
FM SSE DIRECTION TO 30 TO 40 MPH PSBL. HI TEMPS SUN RANGING FM THE
L/M50S NW TO THE L60S SE. LOWS SUN NGT RANGING THRU THE 50S...W/
READINGS LIKELY TO RISE AFT MDNGT. QPF AVGG 1/2 TO 1 INCH.

THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NNE OF THE REGION AT 12Z MON...WITH A
CDFNT PUSHING TWD/INTO OUR EXTRM WRN CNTIES BY 00Z TUE. AFTER LWR
CLOUDS AND PSBL FOG MON MRNG...SW WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE CDFNT
BECOME GUSTY...AND WILL HELP TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 70S UNDER A
PARTLY SUNNY SKY. FOR NOW...POPS AOB 14% ON MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST BY 12Z TUE. BNDRY THEN
STALLS OVR THE GULF STREAM TUE & WED IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF
S/W`S PROGGED TO DVLP THEN MOVE NE ALONG IT. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRS
(OF PACIFIC ORIGIN) OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION BUILDS S&E THRU
THE MID WEEK PRD. UPR LVL LOW AND TRAILING CDFRNT PROGGED TO DIVE
SE FROM THE GT LAKES THU WITH HIGH PRS BUILDING INTO THE ARA FRI.

GRIDS WILL INDICATE SLGHT CHC SHWRS WITH FROPA MONDAY NIGHT. COOLER
AS CAA SET IN BEHIND THE FRNT. LOWS M-U40S NWRN HALF 50-55 SERN
HALF. TUE THRU WED FCST DEPENDS ON HOW FAR N&W MSTR GETS FROM THE
DVLPNG LOW OFF THE SERN COAST. GFS HAS A TRACK A BIT FRTHR EAST
KEEPING THE PCPN CONFINED TO SERN CSTL AREAS BY LATE TUE...AND GNRLY
E OF I95 WED. ECMWF SLOWER WITH A DRY TUE...PCPN MOVG ACROSS SERN
CSTL AREAS TUE NIGHT THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA WED BEFORE
PULLING OUT TO SEAS WED NIGHT.

TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF WITH THE COASTAL LOW TUE & WED...BUT THNK
IT IS OVERDONE WRT THE DEEPENING OF THE LOW OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST
TURKEY DAY. WILL INDICATE 20-30 POP ACROSS SERN CSTL AREAS TUE. DRY
ELSEWHERE. HIGHS M50S-L60S. A GENERAL RAIN OVRSPRDS THE FA SE-NW
TUES NIGHT AND WED...THEN ENDS WED EVE AS THE LOW PULLS FRTHR
OFFSHORE. PCPN ALL LIQUID WITH THIS EVENT. LOWS TUE NIGHT M30S-M40S.
HIGHS WED M40S-L50S. PCPN ENDS WED EVE BEFORE THE COLD AIR ARRIVES.
LOWS AFTER THE RAIN ENDS FALL INTO THE U20S-L30S W OF THE
BAY...M-U30S SERN CSTL AREAS.

CLIPPER TYPE S/W DIVES SE THU. ENUF MSTR SEEN WITH THIS FTR FOR AT
LEAST SLGHT CHC DIURNAL SHWRS (PSBLY MIXED WITH IP???) THANKSGIVING
DAY. HIGHS 45-50. DRYING OUT THURS NIGHT AND FRI. LOWS U20S-M30S
XCPT 35-40 SERN CSTL AREAS. HIGHS FRI M-U40S.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS WITH MOSTLY CLR SKY AND LIGHT
WIND. LOW DEWPTS MEAN NO FOG IS EXPECTED. WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT
OUT OF THE N-E AND WILL GRADUALLY SHFT TO SW BY THIS AFTN. HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TDA...MOVING WELL
OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY.

A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN AND
MVFR/IFR CONDS LATE SUN INTO MON MRNG.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA OVR SRN CSTL WTRS HAS EXPIRED AS SEAS DROPPED BLO 5 FT. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNG...EXPECT 2-3 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS WITH
LGT WINDS AS STRONG SFC HI PRES CENTERS OVR THE WTRS. THE HI
SLIDES FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS AFTN...WITH WINDS BCMG SLY AT 10-15 KT.
NEXT LO PRES SYSTM PUSHES NE TOWARDS THE OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
SUN/SUN NGT...WITH S/SE FLOW RAMPING UP OVR THE LOCAL WTRS AS THE
PRES GRADIENT INCREASES. SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUN NGT INTO MON
IN RESPONSE TO THIS...AND MAY CONTINUE UNTIL MON NGT WHEN THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRNT CROSSES THE AREA. GUSTS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE
OVR THE OCEAN AS WELL. WITH THIS BEING 4TH PERIOD WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW. WAVES OVR THE BAY WILL REACH 3-4 FT WITH SEAS
OVR CSTL WTRS UP TO 6-8 FT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED MONDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

RIC 76 1979
ORF 78 1983
SBY 78 1931
ECG 77 1983

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB/TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...











000
FXUS61 KRNK 220949
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
449 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ONE MORE DAY OF FAIR WEATHER TO THE REGION
AS WE START THE WEEKEND. THEN...A STORM SYSTEM MOVING NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT INTO THE
APPALACHIANS AND CENTRAL MID ATLANTIC REGION...BRINGING WET AND
WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM BEFORE A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY...RETURNING TEMPERATURES TO BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS 330 AM EST SATURDAY...

ONE MORE QUIET DAY ON TAP AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION SLIDES OFF
TO OUR EAST TODAY. LOW CLOUDS TO OUR WEST LOOK TO ROTATE AROUND THE
BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH...WHICH WILL KEEP THEM JUST WEST AND NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS
OVERSPREADING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...RESULTING IN A FAIR WEATHER DAY
WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE. SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL BE
HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATE TONIGHT AS DEEP SWLY FLOW SETS UP IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF APPROACHING WARM FRONT...AND CLOUDS MOVE IN
EN MASSE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AND WITH THE CLOUDS COMES THE
INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN...ENTERING THE FORECAST FROM THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT WILL BE RAMPING UP QUICKLY AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SATURDAY...

THE PRIMARY FOCUS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON A VIGOROUS
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE SLATED TO TRAVERSE THE REGION FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUN AFTERNOON/SUN NIGHT. THE SHORT WAVE
WILL EJECT IN ADVANCE OF A BROADER TROUGH PROGGED TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. SUN-MON. AS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
TO DEVELOP SUN...THE LEADING SHORT WAVE WILL TAKE ON A STRONG
NEGATIVE TILT AND ROTATE OUT OF THE ARKLATEX/MID-SOUTH REGION
TOWARD THE OH VALLEY SUN EVENING/OVERNIGHT. THE ANTECEDENT AIR
MASS ACROSS THE RNK CWA WILL BE DRY/COOL FROM THE REMNANT ARCTIC
HIGH HAVING DRIFTED OFFSHORE IN A FAVORABLE IN-SITU WEDGE
POSITION. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH SUN
AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN OVERRUNNING THE WARM FRONT IN AN
AREA OF SUBSTANTIAL ISENTROPIC LIFT. AS USUAL WITH THESE TYPE OF
SITUATIONS...THE WEDGE LEADS TO A STABLE ENVIRONMENT AS THE MAIN
DYNAMICS PASS THROUGH THE REGION AND THIS IS NO EXCEPTION.

CONCERNS ARISE...HOWEVER...AS A 70-80KT LLJ TRAVERSES THE AREA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE WARM FRONT/UPPER TROUGH SUN AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. SPC HAS PUSHED THE GENERAL THUNDER AREA UP TOWARD THE
BLUE RIDGE...AND A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK APPROACHING THE FAR SE
COUNTIES...NAMELY HALIFAX/CASWELL. FEEL THAT THIS WILL BE ANOTHER
SITUATION WHERE THE COOL BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN DECOUPLED FROM
THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES. MODEL
ADVERTISED INSTABILITY AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING NEAR ZERO
INSTABILITY...POSITIVE LIS...AND ZERO CAPE...BUT SUBSTANTIAL SHEAR
WITH STRONGLY CURVED HODOGRAPHS AND 30+KTS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION. A TYPICAL HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT.
HOWEVER...WITH CAPE NEAR ZERO...DO NOT FEEL THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
SUPPORT FOR TSRA AT THIS POINT AND HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAVE IT OUT
OF THE GRIDS IN COORDINATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORS.

THE GREATER CONCERN THROUGH THE SUN TIME FRAME WILL BE AS THE
STRONG LLJ TRAVERSES THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW NC/SW VA/SE WV. THIS
IS FAIRLY CLASSICAL SETUP FOR STRONG TO HIGH WINDS IN THE
SMYTH/TAZEWELL/MERCER COUNTY REGION. CURRENT ADVERTISED WIND
SPEEDS DO NOT SUPPORT A HIGH WIND WATCH AT THIS POINT WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 22KTS AND GUSTS TO AROUND 38KTS. A WIND
ADVISORY SEEMS QUITE PROBABLE THOUGH AS WE MOVE CLOSER TO THE
EVENT.

WHILE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED SUN
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS...MAINLY IN THE 18Z-06Z TIME
FRAME...OVERALL QPF REMAIN MOSTLY 1 INCH OR LESS FOR THE ENTIRE
CWA. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD FALL ACROSS UPSLOPE SOUTHEAST
FACING SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH A STRONG S-SE WIND THROUGH
THE BULK OF THE RAIN EVENT.

MONDAY...THE WARM FRONT MOVES TO THE NORTH AND A VERY DEEP 966MB SFC
LOW PRESSURE AREA CRANKS UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AS THE VIGOROUS
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THAT REGION AND PHASES
WITH THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY EAST. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A STRONG SW SFC AND BOUNDARY LOW FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION. THE
CWA WILL BE SOLIDLY IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR SURE. TEMPERATURES MAY
ACTUALLY BEGIN TO RISE OVERNIGHT SUN NIGHT WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL
WAA. WITH 850MB TEMPS +10C TO EVEN +12C ACROSS PARTS OF THE CWA
AND THE STRONG SW FLOW...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
WARM IN THE 60S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO THE 70S EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...WITH EVEN 50S IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. COMPARED TO THE
BITTER COLD OF THE PAST WEEK...IT WILL FEEL LIKE SUMMER. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A PASSING SHOWER IN THE SUMMERLIKE AIR
MASS...BUT OTHER THAN THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW...THE SOUNDINGS
SHOW A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP...SO SHOWERS WOULD MOSTLY LIKELY BE
CONFINED TO PASSING MDT CU CAPABLE OF A SPRINKLE...WHICH IS NOT
LIKELY.

WE BEGIN TO RETURN TO REALITY TUESDAY AS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN U.S. IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING
SW U.S. UPPER RIDGE. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST WITH A GRADUAL COOL DOWN EXPECTED THROUGH THE
THANKSGIVING WEEK. MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES TUE SHOULD BE A GOOD 20-30
DEGREES COOLER THAN MON...BUT NOTHING CLOSE TO OUR RECENT COLD
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EST SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO PROGRESS
FROM NEAR JAMES BAY NORTHEAST TOWARDS GREENLAND. THE SYSTEMS
TRAILING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TO NEAR THE
EAST COAT OF THE U.S. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO OFFER VARIOUS
SOLUTIONS REGARDING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS PROGGED TO HEAD
NORTH ALONG THIS FRONT...FROM THE GULF COAST STATES TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. GENERAL CONSENSUS IS NOW
THAT THIS WILL OCCUR...WITH THE ECMWF PULLING THE MOISTURE
FARTHEST BACK INLAND AND TO THE WEST...WHILE THE CANADIAN IS THE
DRIEST. THE GFS SEEMS TO BE A REASONABLE COMPROMISE AT THIS POINT.
AT ANY RATE...ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL BUCKLE THE FRONT
FROM TUE...AT THAT POINT LYING ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS...AND ALLOW
THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE PIEDMONT AT A
MINIMUM...POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST WED AS THE ALLEGHANY FRONT.
THUS...HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE POPS FOR WED ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA...APPROACHING LIKELY VALUES IN FAR EASTERN AREAS. ENOUGH
COLDER AIR WILL HAVE MADE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION FOR SOME TYPE OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN WESTERN AREAS. HOWEVER...THE WESTERN AREAS
ARE THE AREAS LEAST LIKELY TO RECEIVE PCPN WITH THIS EVENT...SO
ANY WINTER PCPN...PRIMARILY SNOW...WOULD BE MINOR AT BEST AND DOES
NOT APPEAR TO AROUSE ANY WINTER WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS POINT.
FOR AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE FORM OF RAIN THROUGHOUT THE EVENT. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...THIS COASTAL WAVE WILL BE NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
AND NO LONGER BE A FACTOR IN OUR FORECAST.

WHAT WILL BECOME A FACTOR IS YET ANOTHER DEEPENING UPPER LOW
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GUIDANCE IS OFFERING THIS ONE TO TAKE A
FARTHER SOUTH TRACK THAN ITS PREDECESSOR...DEEPEN MORE...AND FUNNEL
A STRONGER SURGE OF COLDER AIR INTO OUR REGION. AFTER AN INITIAL
ROUND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION ON
THURSDAY...ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE PREFERRED AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL TREND LOWER EACH DAY...WITH THE
BIGGEST DROP BEING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW TO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
THANKSGIVING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM EST SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS AT ALL TAF SITES.

ESSENTIALLY A NIL WEATHER FORECAST THIS TAF PACKAGE AS CENTER
OF HIGH PRESSURE STARTS THE PERIOD OVER THE REGION AND SLOWLY
SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST. LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM ARE FORECAST TO
ROTATE AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH TO OUR WEST AND NORTH.
MAYBE A FEW PUFFS OF CU AT KLWB OR KBLF THIS AFTERNOON BUT DO
NOT FEEL IT WARRANTS ANY MENTION IN THE TAF. BUT MODEL UPPER
LEVEL RH FIELDS CORRELATE WELL WITH CIRRUS SEEN STREAMING IN
OUR DIRECTION ON CURRENT SATELLITE LOOP SO IT LOOKS LIKE A HIGH
CIG OF BKN CIRRUS WILL PREVENT SKC FOR SKY CONDITION. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN AND
MVFR OR LOWER CIGS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
ALSO...STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS LATER ON SUNDAY MAY LEAD TO
LLWS...ESPECIALLY THE BLF AREA. A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR DURING
MONDAY OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A DRY SLOT DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE
EXITING FRONT FROM SUNDAY AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK...EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS
EASTERN WV/FAR SW VA...BUT MOSTLY VFR ELSEWHERE WITH A COLDER NW
FLOW.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 215 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WILL BE OUT
OF SERVICE UNTIL PARTS ARRIVE TO REPLACE THE SENSOR. UNTIL THEN
THE VISIBILITY WILL ONLY BE REPORTED WHEN THE CONTROL TOWER IS
STAFFED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...DS/RAB
AVIATION...KK/MBS
EQUIPMENT...RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 220949
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
449 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ONE MORE DAY OF FAIR WEATHER TO THE REGION
AS WE START THE WEEKEND. THEN...A STORM SYSTEM MOVING NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT INTO THE
APPALACHIANS AND CENTRAL MID ATLANTIC REGION...BRINGING WET AND
WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM BEFORE A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY...RETURNING TEMPERATURES TO BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS 330 AM EST SATURDAY...

ONE MORE QUIET DAY ON TAP AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION SLIDES OFF
TO OUR EAST TODAY. LOW CLOUDS TO OUR WEST LOOK TO ROTATE AROUND THE
BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH...WHICH WILL KEEP THEM JUST WEST AND NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS
OVERSPREADING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...RESULTING IN A FAIR WEATHER DAY
WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE. SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL BE
HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATE TONIGHT AS DEEP SWLY FLOW SETS UP IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF APPROACHING WARM FRONT...AND CLOUDS MOVE IN
EN MASSE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AND WITH THE CLOUDS COMES THE
INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN...ENTERING THE FORECAST FROM THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT WILL BE RAMPING UP QUICKLY AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SATURDAY...

THE PRIMARY FOCUS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON A VIGOROUS
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE SLATED TO TRAVERSE THE REGION FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUN AFTERNOON/SUN NIGHT. THE SHORT WAVE
WILL EJECT IN ADVANCE OF A BROADER TROUGH PROGGED TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. SUN-MON. AS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
TO DEVELOP SUN...THE LEADING SHORT WAVE WILL TAKE ON A STRONG
NEGATIVE TILT AND ROTATE OUT OF THE ARKLATEX/MID-SOUTH REGION
TOWARD THE OH VALLEY SUN EVENING/OVERNIGHT. THE ANTECEDENT AIR
MASS ACROSS THE RNK CWA WILL BE DRY/COOL FROM THE REMNANT ARCTIC
HIGH HAVING DRIFTED OFFSHORE IN A FAVORABLE IN-SITU WEDGE
POSITION. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH SUN
AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN OVERRUNNING THE WARM FRONT IN AN
AREA OF SUBSTANTIAL ISENTROPIC LIFT. AS USUAL WITH THESE TYPE OF
SITUATIONS...THE WEDGE LEADS TO A STABLE ENVIRONMENT AS THE MAIN
DYNAMICS PASS THROUGH THE REGION AND THIS IS NO EXCEPTION.

CONCERNS ARISE...HOWEVER...AS A 70-80KT LLJ TRAVERSES THE AREA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE WARM FRONT/UPPER TROUGH SUN AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. SPC HAS PUSHED THE GENERAL THUNDER AREA UP TOWARD THE
BLUE RIDGE...AND A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK APPROACHING THE FAR SE
COUNTIES...NAMELY HALIFAX/CASWELL. FEEL THAT THIS WILL BE ANOTHER
SITUATION WHERE THE COOL BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN DECOUPLED FROM
THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES. MODEL
ADVERTISED INSTABILITY AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING NEAR ZERO
INSTABILITY...POSITIVE LIS...AND ZERO CAPE...BUT SUBSTANTIAL SHEAR
WITH STRONGLY CURVED HODOGRAPHS AND 30+KTS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION. A TYPICAL HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT.
HOWEVER...WITH CAPE NEAR ZERO...DO NOT FEEL THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
SUPPORT FOR TSRA AT THIS POINT AND HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAVE IT OUT
OF THE GRIDS IN COORDINATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORS.

THE GREATER CONCERN THROUGH THE SUN TIME FRAME WILL BE AS THE
STRONG LLJ TRAVERSES THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW NC/SW VA/SE WV. THIS
IS FAIRLY CLASSICAL SETUP FOR STRONG TO HIGH WINDS IN THE
SMYTH/TAZEWELL/MERCER COUNTY REGION. CURRENT ADVERTISED WIND
SPEEDS DO NOT SUPPORT A HIGH WIND WATCH AT THIS POINT WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 22KTS AND GUSTS TO AROUND 38KTS. A WIND
ADVISORY SEEMS QUITE PROBABLE THOUGH AS WE MOVE CLOSER TO THE
EVENT.

WHILE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED SUN
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS...MAINLY IN THE 18Z-06Z TIME
FRAME...OVERALL QPF REMAIN MOSTLY 1 INCH OR LESS FOR THE ENTIRE
CWA. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD FALL ACROSS UPSLOPE SOUTHEAST
FACING SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH A STRONG S-SE WIND THROUGH
THE BULK OF THE RAIN EVENT.

MONDAY...THE WARM FRONT MOVES TO THE NORTH AND A VERY DEEP 966MB SFC
LOW PRESSURE AREA CRANKS UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AS THE VIGOROUS
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THAT REGION AND PHASES
WITH THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY EAST. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A STRONG SW SFC AND BOUNDARY LOW FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION. THE
CWA WILL BE SOLIDLY IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR SURE. TEMPERATURES MAY
ACTUALLY BEGIN TO RISE OVERNIGHT SUN NIGHT WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL
WAA. WITH 850MB TEMPS +10C TO EVEN +12C ACROSS PARTS OF THE CWA
AND THE STRONG SW FLOW...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
WARM IN THE 60S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO THE 70S EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...WITH EVEN 50S IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. COMPARED TO THE
BITTER COLD OF THE PAST WEEK...IT WILL FEEL LIKE SUMMER. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A PASSING SHOWER IN THE SUMMERLIKE AIR
MASS...BUT OTHER THAN THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW...THE SOUNDINGS
SHOW A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP...SO SHOWERS WOULD MOSTLY LIKELY BE
CONFINED TO PASSING MDT CU CAPABLE OF A SPRINKLE...WHICH IS NOT
LIKELY.

WE BEGIN TO RETURN TO REALITY TUESDAY AS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN U.S. IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING
SW U.S. UPPER RIDGE. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST WITH A GRADUAL COOL DOWN EXPECTED THROUGH THE
THANKSGIVING WEEK. MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES TUE SHOULD BE A GOOD 20-30
DEGREES COOLER THAN MON...BUT NOTHING CLOSE TO OUR RECENT COLD
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EST SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO PROGRESS
FROM NEAR JAMES BAY NORTHEAST TOWARDS GREENLAND. THE SYSTEMS
TRAILING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TO NEAR THE
EAST COAT OF THE U.S. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO OFFER VARIOUS
SOLUTIONS REGARDING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS PROGGED TO HEAD
NORTH ALONG THIS FRONT...FROM THE GULF COAST STATES TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. GENERAL CONSENSUS IS NOW
THAT THIS WILL OCCUR...WITH THE ECMWF PULLING THE MOISTURE
FARTHEST BACK INLAND AND TO THE WEST...WHILE THE CANADIAN IS THE
DRIEST. THE GFS SEEMS TO BE A REASONABLE COMPROMISE AT THIS POINT.
AT ANY RATE...ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL BUCKLE THE FRONT
FROM TUE...AT THAT POINT LYING ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS...AND ALLOW
THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE PIEDMONT AT A
MINIMUM...POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST WED AS THE ALLEGHANY FRONT.
THUS...HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE POPS FOR WED ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA...APPROACHING LIKELY VALUES IN FAR EASTERN AREAS. ENOUGH
COLDER AIR WILL HAVE MADE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION FOR SOME TYPE OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN WESTERN AREAS. HOWEVER...THE WESTERN AREAS
ARE THE AREAS LEAST LIKELY TO RECEIVE PCPN WITH THIS EVENT...SO
ANY WINTER PCPN...PRIMARILY SNOW...WOULD BE MINOR AT BEST AND DOES
NOT APPEAR TO AROUSE ANY WINTER WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS POINT.
FOR AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE FORM OF RAIN THROUGHOUT THE EVENT. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...THIS COASTAL WAVE WILL BE NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
AND NO LONGER BE A FACTOR IN OUR FORECAST.

WHAT WILL BECOME A FACTOR IS YET ANOTHER DEEPENING UPPER LOW
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GUIDANCE IS OFFERING THIS ONE TO TAKE A
FARTHER SOUTH TRACK THAN ITS PREDECESSOR...DEEPEN MORE...AND FUNNEL
A STRONGER SURGE OF COLDER AIR INTO OUR REGION. AFTER AN INITIAL
ROUND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION ON
THURSDAY...ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE PREFERRED AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL TREND LOWER EACH DAY...WITH THE
BIGGEST DROP BEING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW TO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
THANKSGIVING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM EST SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS AT ALL TAF SITES.

ESSENTIALLY A NIL WEATHER FORECAST THIS TAF PACKAGE AS CENTER
OF HIGH PRESSURE STARTS THE PERIOD OVER THE REGION AND SLOWLY
SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST. LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM ARE FORECAST TO
ROTATE AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH TO OUR WEST AND NORTH.
MAYBE A FEW PUFFS OF CU AT KLWB OR KBLF THIS AFTERNOON BUT DO
NOT FEEL IT WARRANTS ANY MENTION IN THE TAF. BUT MODEL UPPER
LEVEL RH FIELDS CORRELATE WELL WITH CIRRUS SEEN STREAMING IN
OUR DIRECTION ON CURRENT SATELLITE LOOP SO IT LOOKS LIKE A HIGH
CIG OF BKN CIRRUS WILL PREVENT SKC FOR SKY CONDITION. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN AND
MVFR OR LOWER CIGS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
ALSO...STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS LATER ON SUNDAY MAY LEAD TO
LLWS...ESPECIALLY THE BLF AREA. A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR DURING
MONDAY OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A DRY SLOT DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE
EXITING FRONT FROM SUNDAY AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK...EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS
EASTERN WV/FAR SW VA...BUT MOSTLY VFR ELSEWHERE WITH A COLDER NW
FLOW.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 215 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WILL BE OUT
OF SERVICE UNTIL PARTS ARRIVE TO REPLACE THE SENSOR. UNTIL THEN
THE VISIBILITY WILL ONLY BE REPORTED WHEN THE CONTROL TOWER IS
STAFFED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...DS/RAB
AVIATION...KK/MBS
EQUIPMENT...RAB



000
FXUS61 KRNK 220949
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
449 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ONE MORE DAY OF FAIR WEATHER TO THE REGION
AS WE START THE WEEKEND. THEN...A STORM SYSTEM MOVING NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT INTO THE
APPALACHIANS AND CENTRAL MID ATLANTIC REGION...BRINGING WET AND
WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM BEFORE A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY...RETURNING TEMPERATURES TO BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS 330 AM EST SATURDAY...

ONE MORE QUIET DAY ON TAP AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION SLIDES OFF
TO OUR EAST TODAY. LOW CLOUDS TO OUR WEST LOOK TO ROTATE AROUND THE
BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH...WHICH WILL KEEP THEM JUST WEST AND NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS
OVERSPREADING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...RESULTING IN A FAIR WEATHER DAY
WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE. SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL BE
HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATE TONIGHT AS DEEP SWLY FLOW SETS UP IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF APPROACHING WARM FRONT...AND CLOUDS MOVE IN
EN MASSE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AND WITH THE CLOUDS COMES THE
INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN...ENTERING THE FORECAST FROM THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT WILL BE RAMPING UP QUICKLY AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SATURDAY...

THE PRIMARY FOCUS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON A VIGOROUS
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE SLATED TO TRAVERSE THE REGION FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUN AFTERNOON/SUN NIGHT. THE SHORT WAVE
WILL EJECT IN ADVANCE OF A BROADER TROUGH PROGGED TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. SUN-MON. AS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
TO DEVELOP SUN...THE LEADING SHORT WAVE WILL TAKE ON A STRONG
NEGATIVE TILT AND ROTATE OUT OF THE ARKLATEX/MID-SOUTH REGION
TOWARD THE OH VALLEY SUN EVENING/OVERNIGHT. THE ANTECEDENT AIR
MASS ACROSS THE RNK CWA WILL BE DRY/COOL FROM THE REMNANT ARCTIC
HIGH HAVING DRIFTED OFFSHORE IN A FAVORABLE IN-SITU WEDGE
POSITION. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH SUN
AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN OVERRUNNING THE WARM FRONT IN AN
AREA OF SUBSTANTIAL ISENTROPIC LIFT. AS USUAL WITH THESE TYPE OF
SITUATIONS...THE WEDGE LEADS TO A STABLE ENVIRONMENT AS THE MAIN
DYNAMICS PASS THROUGH THE REGION AND THIS IS NO EXCEPTION.

CONCERNS ARISE...HOWEVER...AS A 70-80KT LLJ TRAVERSES THE AREA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE WARM FRONT/UPPER TROUGH SUN AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. SPC HAS PUSHED THE GENERAL THUNDER AREA UP TOWARD THE
BLUE RIDGE...AND A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK APPROACHING THE FAR SE
COUNTIES...NAMELY HALIFAX/CASWELL. FEEL THAT THIS WILL BE ANOTHER
SITUATION WHERE THE COOL BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN DECOUPLED FROM
THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES. MODEL
ADVERTISED INSTABILITY AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING NEAR ZERO
INSTABILITY...POSITIVE LIS...AND ZERO CAPE...BUT SUBSTANTIAL SHEAR
WITH STRONGLY CURVED HODOGRAPHS AND 30+KTS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION. A TYPICAL HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT.
HOWEVER...WITH CAPE NEAR ZERO...DO NOT FEEL THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
SUPPORT FOR TSRA AT THIS POINT AND HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAVE IT OUT
OF THE GRIDS IN COORDINATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORS.

THE GREATER CONCERN THROUGH THE SUN TIME FRAME WILL BE AS THE
STRONG LLJ TRAVERSES THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW NC/SW VA/SE WV. THIS
IS FAIRLY CLASSICAL SETUP FOR STRONG TO HIGH WINDS IN THE
SMYTH/TAZEWELL/MERCER COUNTY REGION. CURRENT ADVERTISED WIND
SPEEDS DO NOT SUPPORT A HIGH WIND WATCH AT THIS POINT WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 22KTS AND GUSTS TO AROUND 38KTS. A WIND
ADVISORY SEEMS QUITE PROBABLE THOUGH AS WE MOVE CLOSER TO THE
EVENT.

WHILE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED SUN
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS...MAINLY IN THE 18Z-06Z TIME
FRAME...OVERALL QPF REMAIN MOSTLY 1 INCH OR LESS FOR THE ENTIRE
CWA. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD FALL ACROSS UPSLOPE SOUTHEAST
FACING SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH A STRONG S-SE WIND THROUGH
THE BULK OF THE RAIN EVENT.

MONDAY...THE WARM FRONT MOVES TO THE NORTH AND A VERY DEEP 966MB SFC
LOW PRESSURE AREA CRANKS UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AS THE VIGOROUS
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THAT REGION AND PHASES
WITH THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY EAST. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A STRONG SW SFC AND BOUNDARY LOW FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION. THE
CWA WILL BE SOLIDLY IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR SURE. TEMPERATURES MAY
ACTUALLY BEGIN TO RISE OVERNIGHT SUN NIGHT WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL
WAA. WITH 850MB TEMPS +10C TO EVEN +12C ACROSS PARTS OF THE CWA
AND THE STRONG SW FLOW...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
WARM IN THE 60S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO THE 70S EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...WITH EVEN 50S IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. COMPARED TO THE
BITTER COLD OF THE PAST WEEK...IT WILL FEEL LIKE SUMMER. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A PASSING SHOWER IN THE SUMMERLIKE AIR
MASS...BUT OTHER THAN THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW...THE SOUNDINGS
SHOW A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP...SO SHOWERS WOULD MOSTLY LIKELY BE
CONFINED TO PASSING MDT CU CAPABLE OF A SPRINKLE...WHICH IS NOT
LIKELY.

WE BEGIN TO RETURN TO REALITY TUESDAY AS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN U.S. IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING
SW U.S. UPPER RIDGE. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST WITH A GRADUAL COOL DOWN EXPECTED THROUGH THE
THANKSGIVING WEEK. MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES TUE SHOULD BE A GOOD 20-30
DEGREES COOLER THAN MON...BUT NOTHING CLOSE TO OUR RECENT COLD
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EST SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO PROGRESS
FROM NEAR JAMES BAY NORTHEAST TOWARDS GREENLAND. THE SYSTEMS
TRAILING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TO NEAR THE
EAST COAT OF THE U.S. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO OFFER VARIOUS
SOLUTIONS REGARDING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS PROGGED TO HEAD
NORTH ALONG THIS FRONT...FROM THE GULF COAST STATES TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. GENERAL CONSENSUS IS NOW
THAT THIS WILL OCCUR...WITH THE ECMWF PULLING THE MOISTURE
FARTHEST BACK INLAND AND TO THE WEST...WHILE THE CANADIAN IS THE
DRIEST. THE GFS SEEMS TO BE A REASONABLE COMPROMISE AT THIS POINT.
AT ANY RATE...ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL BUCKLE THE FRONT
FROM TUE...AT THAT POINT LYING ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS...AND ALLOW
THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE PIEDMONT AT A
MINIMUM...POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST WED AS THE ALLEGHANY FRONT.
THUS...HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE POPS FOR WED ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA...APPROACHING LIKELY VALUES IN FAR EASTERN AREAS. ENOUGH
COLDER AIR WILL HAVE MADE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION FOR SOME TYPE OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN WESTERN AREAS. HOWEVER...THE WESTERN AREAS
ARE THE AREAS LEAST LIKELY TO RECEIVE PCPN WITH THIS EVENT...SO
ANY WINTER PCPN...PRIMARILY SNOW...WOULD BE MINOR AT BEST AND DOES
NOT APPEAR TO AROUSE ANY WINTER WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS POINT.
FOR AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE FORM OF RAIN THROUGHOUT THE EVENT. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...THIS COASTAL WAVE WILL BE NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
AND NO LONGER BE A FACTOR IN OUR FORECAST.

WHAT WILL BECOME A FACTOR IS YET ANOTHER DEEPENING UPPER LOW
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GUIDANCE IS OFFERING THIS ONE TO TAKE A
FARTHER SOUTH TRACK THAN ITS PREDECESSOR...DEEPEN MORE...AND FUNNEL
A STRONGER SURGE OF COLDER AIR INTO OUR REGION. AFTER AN INITIAL
ROUND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION ON
THURSDAY...ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE PREFERRED AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL TREND LOWER EACH DAY...WITH THE
BIGGEST DROP BEING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW TO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
THANKSGIVING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM EST SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS AT ALL TAF SITES.

ESSENTIALLY A NIL WEATHER FORECAST THIS TAF PACKAGE AS CENTER
OF HIGH PRESSURE STARTS THE PERIOD OVER THE REGION AND SLOWLY
SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST. LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM ARE FORECAST TO
ROTATE AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH TO OUR WEST AND NORTH.
MAYBE A FEW PUFFS OF CU AT KLWB OR KBLF THIS AFTERNOON BUT DO
NOT FEEL IT WARRANTS ANY MENTION IN THE TAF. BUT MODEL UPPER
LEVEL RH FIELDS CORRELATE WELL WITH CIRRUS SEEN STREAMING IN
OUR DIRECTION ON CURRENT SATELLITE LOOP SO IT LOOKS LIKE A HIGH
CIG OF BKN CIRRUS WILL PREVENT SKC FOR SKY CONDITION. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN AND
MVFR OR LOWER CIGS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
ALSO...STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS LATER ON SUNDAY MAY LEAD TO
LLWS...ESPECIALLY THE BLF AREA. A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR DURING
MONDAY OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A DRY SLOT DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE
EXITING FRONT FROM SUNDAY AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK...EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS
EASTERN WV/FAR SW VA...BUT MOSTLY VFR ELSEWHERE WITH A COLDER NW
FLOW.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 215 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WILL BE OUT
OF SERVICE UNTIL PARTS ARRIVE TO REPLACE THE SENSOR. UNTIL THEN
THE VISIBILITY WILL ONLY BE REPORTED WHEN THE CONTROL TOWER IS
STAFFED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...DS/RAB
AVIATION...KK/MBS
EQUIPMENT...RAB



000
FXUS61 KRNK 220949
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
449 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ONE MORE DAY OF FAIR WEATHER TO THE REGION
AS WE START THE WEEKEND. THEN...A STORM SYSTEM MOVING NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT INTO THE
APPALACHIANS AND CENTRAL MID ATLANTIC REGION...BRINGING WET AND
WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM BEFORE A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY...RETURNING TEMPERATURES TO BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS 330 AM EST SATURDAY...

ONE MORE QUIET DAY ON TAP AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION SLIDES OFF
TO OUR EAST TODAY. LOW CLOUDS TO OUR WEST LOOK TO ROTATE AROUND THE
BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH...WHICH WILL KEEP THEM JUST WEST AND NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS
OVERSPREADING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...RESULTING IN A FAIR WEATHER DAY
WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE. SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL BE
HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATE TONIGHT AS DEEP SWLY FLOW SETS UP IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF APPROACHING WARM FRONT...AND CLOUDS MOVE IN
EN MASSE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AND WITH THE CLOUDS COMES THE
INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN...ENTERING THE FORECAST FROM THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT WILL BE RAMPING UP QUICKLY AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SATURDAY...

THE PRIMARY FOCUS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON A VIGOROUS
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE SLATED TO TRAVERSE THE REGION FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUN AFTERNOON/SUN NIGHT. THE SHORT WAVE
WILL EJECT IN ADVANCE OF A BROADER TROUGH PROGGED TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. SUN-MON. AS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
TO DEVELOP SUN...THE LEADING SHORT WAVE WILL TAKE ON A STRONG
NEGATIVE TILT AND ROTATE OUT OF THE ARKLATEX/MID-SOUTH REGION
TOWARD THE OH VALLEY SUN EVENING/OVERNIGHT. THE ANTECEDENT AIR
MASS ACROSS THE RNK CWA WILL BE DRY/COOL FROM THE REMNANT ARCTIC
HIGH HAVING DRIFTED OFFSHORE IN A FAVORABLE IN-SITU WEDGE
POSITION. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH SUN
AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN OVERRUNNING THE WARM FRONT IN AN
AREA OF SUBSTANTIAL ISENTROPIC LIFT. AS USUAL WITH THESE TYPE OF
SITUATIONS...THE WEDGE LEADS TO A STABLE ENVIRONMENT AS THE MAIN
DYNAMICS PASS THROUGH THE REGION AND THIS IS NO EXCEPTION.

CONCERNS ARISE...HOWEVER...AS A 70-80KT LLJ TRAVERSES THE AREA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE WARM FRONT/UPPER TROUGH SUN AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. SPC HAS PUSHED THE GENERAL THUNDER AREA UP TOWARD THE
BLUE RIDGE...AND A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK APPROACHING THE FAR SE
COUNTIES...NAMELY HALIFAX/CASWELL. FEEL THAT THIS WILL BE ANOTHER
SITUATION WHERE THE COOL BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN DECOUPLED FROM
THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES. MODEL
ADVERTISED INSTABILITY AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING NEAR ZERO
INSTABILITY...POSITIVE LIS...AND ZERO CAPE...BUT SUBSTANTIAL SHEAR
WITH STRONGLY CURVED HODOGRAPHS AND 30+KTS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION. A TYPICAL HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT.
HOWEVER...WITH CAPE NEAR ZERO...DO NOT FEEL THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
SUPPORT FOR TSRA AT THIS POINT AND HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAVE IT OUT
OF THE GRIDS IN COORDINATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORS.

THE GREATER CONCERN THROUGH THE SUN TIME FRAME WILL BE AS THE
STRONG LLJ TRAVERSES THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW NC/SW VA/SE WV. THIS
IS FAIRLY CLASSICAL SETUP FOR STRONG TO HIGH WINDS IN THE
SMYTH/TAZEWELL/MERCER COUNTY REGION. CURRENT ADVERTISED WIND
SPEEDS DO NOT SUPPORT A HIGH WIND WATCH AT THIS POINT WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 22KTS AND GUSTS TO AROUND 38KTS. A WIND
ADVISORY SEEMS QUITE PROBABLE THOUGH AS WE MOVE CLOSER TO THE
EVENT.

WHILE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED SUN
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS...MAINLY IN THE 18Z-06Z TIME
FRAME...OVERALL QPF REMAIN MOSTLY 1 INCH OR LESS FOR THE ENTIRE
CWA. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD FALL ACROSS UPSLOPE SOUTHEAST
FACING SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH A STRONG S-SE WIND THROUGH
THE BULK OF THE RAIN EVENT.

MONDAY...THE WARM FRONT MOVES TO THE NORTH AND A VERY DEEP 966MB SFC
LOW PRESSURE AREA CRANKS UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AS THE VIGOROUS
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THAT REGION AND PHASES
WITH THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY EAST. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A STRONG SW SFC AND BOUNDARY LOW FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION. THE
CWA WILL BE SOLIDLY IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR SURE. TEMPERATURES MAY
ACTUALLY BEGIN TO RISE OVERNIGHT SUN NIGHT WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL
WAA. WITH 850MB TEMPS +10C TO EVEN +12C ACROSS PARTS OF THE CWA
AND THE STRONG SW FLOW...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
WARM IN THE 60S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO THE 70S EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...WITH EVEN 50S IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. COMPARED TO THE
BITTER COLD OF THE PAST WEEK...IT WILL FEEL LIKE SUMMER. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A PASSING SHOWER IN THE SUMMERLIKE AIR
MASS...BUT OTHER THAN THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW...THE SOUNDINGS
SHOW A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP...SO SHOWERS WOULD MOSTLY LIKELY BE
CONFINED TO PASSING MDT CU CAPABLE OF A SPRINKLE...WHICH IS NOT
LIKELY.

WE BEGIN TO RETURN TO REALITY TUESDAY AS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN U.S. IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING
SW U.S. UPPER RIDGE. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST WITH A GRADUAL COOL DOWN EXPECTED THROUGH THE
THANKSGIVING WEEK. MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES TUE SHOULD BE A GOOD 20-30
DEGREES COOLER THAN MON...BUT NOTHING CLOSE TO OUR RECENT COLD
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EST SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO PROGRESS
FROM NEAR JAMES BAY NORTHEAST TOWARDS GREENLAND. THE SYSTEMS
TRAILING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TO NEAR THE
EAST COAT OF THE U.S. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO OFFER VARIOUS
SOLUTIONS REGARDING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS PROGGED TO HEAD
NORTH ALONG THIS FRONT...FROM THE GULF COAST STATES TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. GENERAL CONSENSUS IS NOW
THAT THIS WILL OCCUR...WITH THE ECMWF PULLING THE MOISTURE
FARTHEST BACK INLAND AND TO THE WEST...WHILE THE CANADIAN IS THE
DRIEST. THE GFS SEEMS TO BE A REASONABLE COMPROMISE AT THIS POINT.
AT ANY RATE...ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL BUCKLE THE FRONT
FROM TUE...AT THAT POINT LYING ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS...AND ALLOW
THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE PIEDMONT AT A
MINIMUM...POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST WED AS THE ALLEGHANY FRONT.
THUS...HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE POPS FOR WED ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA...APPROACHING LIKELY VALUES IN FAR EASTERN AREAS. ENOUGH
COLDER AIR WILL HAVE MADE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION FOR SOME TYPE OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN WESTERN AREAS. HOWEVER...THE WESTERN AREAS
ARE THE AREAS LEAST LIKELY TO RECEIVE PCPN WITH THIS EVENT...SO
ANY WINTER PCPN...PRIMARILY SNOW...WOULD BE MINOR AT BEST AND DOES
NOT APPEAR TO AROUSE ANY WINTER WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS POINT.
FOR AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE FORM OF RAIN THROUGHOUT THE EVENT. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...THIS COASTAL WAVE WILL BE NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
AND NO LONGER BE A FACTOR IN OUR FORECAST.

WHAT WILL BECOME A FACTOR IS YET ANOTHER DEEPENING UPPER LOW
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GUIDANCE IS OFFERING THIS ONE TO TAKE A
FARTHER SOUTH TRACK THAN ITS PREDECESSOR...DEEPEN MORE...AND FUNNEL
A STRONGER SURGE OF COLDER AIR INTO OUR REGION. AFTER AN INITIAL
ROUND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION ON
THURSDAY...ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE PREFERRED AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL TREND LOWER EACH DAY...WITH THE
BIGGEST DROP BEING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW TO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
THANKSGIVING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM EST SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS AT ALL TAF SITES.

ESSENTIALLY A NIL WEATHER FORECAST THIS TAF PACKAGE AS CENTER
OF HIGH PRESSURE STARTS THE PERIOD OVER THE REGION AND SLOWLY
SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST. LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM ARE FORECAST TO
ROTATE AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH TO OUR WEST AND NORTH.
MAYBE A FEW PUFFS OF CU AT KLWB OR KBLF THIS AFTERNOON BUT DO
NOT FEEL IT WARRANTS ANY MENTION IN THE TAF. BUT MODEL UPPER
LEVEL RH FIELDS CORRELATE WELL WITH CIRRUS SEEN STREAMING IN
OUR DIRECTION ON CURRENT SATELLITE LOOP SO IT LOOKS LIKE A HIGH
CIG OF BKN CIRRUS WILL PREVENT SKC FOR SKY CONDITION. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN AND
MVFR OR LOWER CIGS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
ALSO...STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS LATER ON SUNDAY MAY LEAD TO
LLWS...ESPECIALLY THE BLF AREA. A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR DURING
MONDAY OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A DRY SLOT DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE
EXITING FRONT FROM SUNDAY AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK...EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS
EASTERN WV/FAR SW VA...BUT MOSTLY VFR ELSEWHERE WITH A COLDER NW
FLOW.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 215 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WILL BE OUT
OF SERVICE UNTIL PARTS ARRIVE TO REPLACE THE SENSOR. UNTIL THEN
THE VISIBILITY WILL ONLY BE REPORTED WHEN THE CONTROL TOWER IS
STAFFED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...DS/RAB
AVIATION...KK/MBS
EQUIPMENT...RAB




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220900
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
400 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING...THEN
SLIDES OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH AND ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HI PRES (~1034MB) CENTERED OVR THE FA ATTM...AND WILL RMN SO
THROUGH THE MRNG HRS. A (VERY) COLD START UNDER SKC AND NR CALM
WNDS W/ MOST LO TEMPS FM THE UPR TEENS TO THE M20S. THE HI IS SLO
TO WEAKEN/DRIFT OFF THE CST LATER TDA. LGT/VRB WNDS BECOME SSW
RESULTING IN MODERATION. SKY RMNS MNLY SKC THROUGH THIS AFTN. HI
TEMPS FM THE U40S N TO L50S FAR SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND THICKEN FM THE SW LATE TNGT
THROUGH MIDDAY SUN...AS GULF CST MOISTURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT LIFTS NE THROUGH THE SE CONUS. CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY SAT NGT WITH LOWS RANGING THRU THE 30S.

THE WARM FRONT WITH STRONG VERTICAL MOTION AND ASSOCIATED
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE WILL LIFT NE AND ACRS THE MDATLC RGN SUN
SUN NGT. HAVE POPS FOR RAIN INCREASING TO 30-50% SW 1/2 OF FA
DURING SUN AFTN...THEN TO 80-90% EVERYWHERE BETWEEN 00Z-06Z
MON...AND FM ABT 70% NE TO 40% SW BETWEEN 06Z-12Z MON. HI TEMPS
SUN RANGING FM THE L/M50S NW TO THE L60S SE. LOWS SUN NGT RANGING
THRU THE 50S...W/ READINGS LIKELY TO RISE AFT MDNGT. QPF AVGG 1/2
TO 1 INCH.

THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NNE OF THE REGION AT 12Z MON...WITH A
CDFNT PUSHING TWD/INTO OUR EXTRM WRN CNTIES BY 00Z TUE. AFTER LWR
CLOUDS AND PSBL FOG MON MRNG...SW WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE CDFNT
BECOME GUSTY...AND WILL HELP TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 70S UNDER A
PARTLY SUNNY SKY. FOR NOW...POPS AOB 14% ON MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST BY 12Z TUE. BNDRY THEN
STALLS OVR THE GULF STREAM TUE & WED IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF
S/W`S PROGGED TO DVLP THEN MOVE NE ALONG IT. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRS
(OF PACIFIC ORIGIN) OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION BUILDS S&E THRU
THE MID WEEK PRD. UPR LVL LOW AND TRAILING CDFRNT PROGGED TO DIVE
SE FROM THE GT LAKES THU WITH HIGH PRS BUILDING INTO THE ARA FRI.

GRIDS WILL INDICATE SLGHT CHC SHWRS WITH FROPA MONDAY NIGHT. COOLER
AS CAA SET IN BEHIND THE FRNT. LOWS M-U40S NWRN HALF 50-55 SERN
HALF. TUE THRU WED FCST DEPENDS ON HOW FAR N&W MSTR GETS FROM THE
DVLPNG LOW OFF THE SERN COAST. GFS HAS A TRACK A BIT FRTHR EAST
KEEPING THE PCPN CONFINED TO SERN CSTL AREAS BY LATE TUE...AND GNRLY
E OF I95 WED. ECMWF SLOWER WITH A DRY TUE...PCPN MOVG ACROSS SERN
CSTL AREAS TUE NIGHT THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA WED BEFORE
PULLING OUT TO SEAS WED NIGHT.

TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF WITH THE COASTAL LOW TUE & WED...BUT THNK
IT IS OVERDONE WRT THE DEEPENING OF THE LOW OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST
TURKEY DAY. WILL INDICATE 20-30 POP ACROSS SERN CSTL AREAS TUE. DRY
ELSEWHERE. HIGHS M50S-L60S. A GENERAL RAIN OVRSPRDS THE FA SE-NW
TUES NIGHT AND WED...THEN ENDS WED EVE AS THE LOW PULLS FRTHR
OFFSHORE. PCPN ALL LIQUID WITH THIS EVENT. LOWS TUE NIGHT M30S-M40S.
HIGHS WED M40S-L50S. PCPN ENDS WED EVE BEFORE THE COLD AIR ARRIVES.
LOWS AFTER THE RAIN ENDS FALL INTO THE U20S-L30S W OF THE
BAY...M-U30S SERN CSTL AREAS.

CLIPPER TYPE S/W DIVES SE THU. ENUF MSTR SEEN WITH THIS FTR FOR AT
LEAST SLGHT CHC DIURNAL SHWRS (PSBLY MIXED WITH IP???) THANKSGIVING
DAY. HIGHS 45-50. DRYING OUT THURS NIGHT AND FRI. LOWS U20S-M30S
XCPT 35-40 SERN CSTL AREAS. HIGHS FRI M-U40S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS WITH MOSTLY CLR SKY AND LIGHT
WIND. LOW DEWPTS MEAN NO FOG IS EXPECTED. WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT
OUT OF THE N-E AND WILL GRADUALLY SHFT TO SW BY THIS AFTN. HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TDA...MOVING WELL
OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY.

A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN AND
MVFR/IFR CONDS LATE SUN INTO MON MRNG.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA OVR SRN CSTL WTRS HAS EXPIRED AS SEAS DROPPED BLO 5 FT. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNG...EXPECT 2-3 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS WITH
LGT WINDS AS STRONG SFC HI PRES CENTERS OVR THE WTRS. THE HI
SLIDES FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS AFTN...WITH WINDS BCMG SLY AT 10-15 KT.
NEXT LO PRES SYSTM PUSHES NE TOWARDS THE OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
SUN/SUN NGT...WITH S/SE FLOW RAMPING UP OVR THE LOCAL WTRS AS THE
PRES GRADIENT INCREASES. SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUN NGT INTO MON
IN RESPONSE TO THIS...AND MAY CONTINUE UNTIL MON NGT WHEN THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRNT CROSSES THE AREA. GUSTS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE
OVR THE OCEAN AS WELL. WITH THIS BEING 4TH PERIOD WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW. WAVES OVR THE BAY WILL REACH 3-4 FT WITH SEAS
OVR CSTL WTRS UP TO 6-8 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB/TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS






















000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220900
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
400 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING...THEN
SLIDES OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH AND ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HI PRES (~1034MB) CENTERED OVR THE FA ATTM...AND WILL RMN SO
THROUGH THE MRNG HRS. A (VERY) COLD START UNDER SKC AND NR CALM
WNDS W/ MOST LO TEMPS FM THE UPR TEENS TO THE M20S. THE HI IS SLO
TO WEAKEN/DRIFT OFF THE CST LATER TDA. LGT/VRB WNDS BECOME SSW
RESULTING IN MODERATION. SKY RMNS MNLY SKC THROUGH THIS AFTN. HI
TEMPS FM THE U40S N TO L50S FAR SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND THICKEN FM THE SW LATE TNGT
THROUGH MIDDAY SUN...AS GULF CST MOISTURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT LIFTS NE THROUGH THE SE CONUS. CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY SAT NGT WITH LOWS RANGING THRU THE 30S.

THE WARM FRONT WITH STRONG VERTICAL MOTION AND ASSOCIATED
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE WILL LIFT NE AND ACRS THE MDATLC RGN SUN
SUN NGT. HAVE POPS FOR RAIN INCREASING TO 30-50% SW 1/2 OF FA
DURING SUN AFTN...THEN TO 80-90% EVERYWHERE BETWEEN 00Z-06Z
MON...AND FM ABT 70% NE TO 40% SW BETWEEN 06Z-12Z MON. HI TEMPS
SUN RANGING FM THE L/M50S NW TO THE L60S SE. LOWS SUN NGT RANGING
THRU THE 50S...W/ READINGS LIKELY TO RISE AFT MDNGT. QPF AVGG 1/2
TO 1 INCH.

THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NNE OF THE REGION AT 12Z MON...WITH A
CDFNT PUSHING TWD/INTO OUR EXTRM WRN CNTIES BY 00Z TUE. AFTER LWR
CLOUDS AND PSBL FOG MON MRNG...SW WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE CDFNT
BECOME GUSTY...AND WILL HELP TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 70S UNDER A
PARTLY SUNNY SKY. FOR NOW...POPS AOB 14% ON MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST BY 12Z TUE. BNDRY THEN
STALLS OVR THE GULF STREAM TUE & WED IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF
S/W`S PROGGED TO DVLP THEN MOVE NE ALONG IT. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRS
(OF PACIFIC ORIGIN) OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION BUILDS S&E THRU
THE MID WEEK PRD. UPR LVL LOW AND TRAILING CDFRNT PROGGED TO DIVE
SE FROM THE GT LAKES THU WITH HIGH PRS BUILDING INTO THE ARA FRI.

GRIDS WILL INDICATE SLGHT CHC SHWRS WITH FROPA MONDAY NIGHT. COOLER
AS CAA SET IN BEHIND THE FRNT. LOWS M-U40S NWRN HALF 50-55 SERN
HALF. TUE THRU WED FCST DEPENDS ON HOW FAR N&W MSTR GETS FROM THE
DVLPNG LOW OFF THE SERN COAST. GFS HAS A TRACK A BIT FRTHR EAST
KEEPING THE PCPN CONFINED TO SERN CSTL AREAS BY LATE TUE...AND GNRLY
E OF I95 WED. ECMWF SLOWER WITH A DRY TUE...PCPN MOVG ACROSS SERN
CSTL AREAS TUE NIGHT THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA WED BEFORE
PULLING OUT TO SEAS WED NIGHT.

TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF WITH THE COASTAL LOW TUE & WED...BUT THNK
IT IS OVERDONE WRT THE DEEPENING OF THE LOW OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST
TURKEY DAY. WILL INDICATE 20-30 POP ACROSS SERN CSTL AREAS TUE. DRY
ELSEWHERE. HIGHS M50S-L60S. A GENERAL RAIN OVRSPRDS THE FA SE-NW
TUES NIGHT AND WED...THEN ENDS WED EVE AS THE LOW PULLS FRTHR
OFFSHORE. PCPN ALL LIQUID WITH THIS EVENT. LOWS TUE NIGHT M30S-M40S.
HIGHS WED M40S-L50S. PCPN ENDS WED EVE BEFORE THE COLD AIR ARRIVES.
LOWS AFTER THE RAIN ENDS FALL INTO THE U20S-L30S W OF THE
BAY...M-U30S SERN CSTL AREAS.

CLIPPER TYPE S/W DIVES SE THU. ENUF MSTR SEEN WITH THIS FTR FOR AT
LEAST SLGHT CHC DIURNAL SHWRS (PSBLY MIXED WITH IP???) THANKSGIVING
DAY. HIGHS 45-50. DRYING OUT THURS NIGHT AND FRI. LOWS U20S-M30S
XCPT 35-40 SERN CSTL AREAS. HIGHS FRI M-U40S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS WITH MOSTLY CLR SKY AND LIGHT
WIND. LOW DEWPTS MEAN NO FOG IS EXPECTED. WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT
OUT OF THE N-E AND WILL GRADUALLY SHFT TO SW BY THIS AFTN. HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TDA...MOVING WELL
OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY.

A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN AND
MVFR/IFR CONDS LATE SUN INTO MON MRNG.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA OVR SRN CSTL WTRS HAS EXPIRED AS SEAS DROPPED BLO 5 FT. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNG...EXPECT 2-3 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS WITH
LGT WINDS AS STRONG SFC HI PRES CENTERS OVR THE WTRS. THE HI
SLIDES FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS AFTN...WITH WINDS BCMG SLY AT 10-15 KT.
NEXT LO PRES SYSTM PUSHES NE TOWARDS THE OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
SUN/SUN NGT...WITH S/SE FLOW RAMPING UP OVR THE LOCAL WTRS AS THE
PRES GRADIENT INCREASES. SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUN NGT INTO MON
IN RESPONSE TO THIS...AND MAY CONTINUE UNTIL MON NGT WHEN THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRNT CROSSES THE AREA. GUSTS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE
OVR THE OCEAN AS WELL. WITH THIS BEING 4TH PERIOD WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW. WAVES OVR THE BAY WILL REACH 3-4 FT WITH SEAS
OVR CSTL WTRS UP TO 6-8 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB/TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS





















000
FXUS61 KLWX 220844
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
344 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TODAY. A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT STALLS JUST OFFSHORE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HIPRES ATOP CWFA ELY THIS MRNG. W/ CLR SKIES AND LTL/NO WIND...
TEMPS WUD HV AN OPPORTUNITY TO DROP TO DEWPTS IN THE TEENS. HWVR...
WAA SEEMS TO BE HVG AN INFLUENCE AS TEMPS HV LVLD OFF PAST FEW HRS.

SFC HIGH WL MOVE OFFSHORE TDA...PROVIDING SWLY FLOW TO CWFA. AS
SUCH...WAA WL INCREASE. H8 TEMPS SHUD BE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 6C
BY DAYS END. HENCE...AM REFLECTING A SHARP WARM UP IN MAXT...NEAR
MAV/MET/ECS BLEND. /ECS SOLN A COMPROMISE OF THE OTHER TWO ANYWAY./
ONLY WRINKLE WL BE ISENT LIFT INDUCING SOME CLDCVR...SPCLY DURING
THE AFTN. SEEMS LIKE ANY DECENT LIFT REMAINS CONFINED NW OF CWFA...
SO WL KEEP FCST DRY.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
RDGG WL PROTECT CWFA TNGT AS WELL. WL HV DISTURBANCES ALONG THE NWRN
PERHIPHERY AS WELL AS APPROACHING FM THE S. SHUD HV CLDS NAK/DCA/SHD
NWD...BUT OTRW NONE OF THIS WL AFFECT AREA. WL BE ABLE TO RADIATE
AFDK...BUT SUSPECT WE/LL KEEP A PINCH OF SWLY FLOW AS WELL...SO IT
WONT BE ABLE TO GET ALL THAT COLD /SPCLY ON THE RDGTOPS/. CHGS FM
GOING FCST NOT THAT SGFNT.

BY SUN...PVA FM SRN STREAM WL BEGIN TO AFFECT AREA...SPCLY DURING
THE AFTN HRS. WL START THE DAY MOSUN...BUT CLDS WL OVERSPREAD HRS
MIDDAY/ELY AFTN AND WL BRING PCPN NEWD AFT 18Z. AM MOST CONFIDENT ON
RA TWD/AFTER SUNSET DUE TO CONTD INFLUENCE OF SFC RDGG AND NEED TO
SATURATE LLVLS FIRST. MAXT ONCE AGN A BLEND OF MOS.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE VERY STRONG LLJ
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...ON THE ORDER OF 50-70KTS AT 850MB.
ISENTROPIC LIFT...THE LLJ AND PWATS PEAKING AROUND 1.5 INCHES WILL
SUPPORT A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...WITH OTHERWISE STEADY LIGHT RAIN. BASIN WIDE QPF EXPECTED TO
BE LESS THAN AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF RAIN POSSIBLE.
LOW TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S...WITH LOW 50S IN SOME
SPOTS ALONG AND EAST OF I-95.

WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS PA BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING...WITH
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. PRESSURE GRADIENT
BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A BREEZY DAY...WITH
S-SW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20-25 MPH. SOME MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS
SCATTERED OR ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA...BUT KEPT
POPS CORRESPONDINGLY LOW. WARM AIRMASS WILL BRING A BRIEF RETURN TO
MILD TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE VALLEYS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. 00Z NAM SUGGESTS POTENTIAL
FOR ORGANIZED SHOWERS...BUT IS NOT SUPPORTED BY GFS OR ECMWF. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS PRIMARILY IN THE
40S...WITH SOME 30S IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND HIGHLANDS.

CONFIDENCE DECREASES WITH SYNOPTIC SETUP FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.
GENERAL SCENARIO IS THAT HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST...BUT A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND MOVES
THROUGH THE OFFSHORE WATERS. 00Z GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER IN
TIMING...LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW. FCST AT THIS POINT CALLS
FOR POTENTIAL SHOWERS TUESDAY EAST OF I-95...FOLLOWED BY LIGHT RAIN
OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL INCLUDES
MOST OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE 40S...SO ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE LIQUID. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TEMPS START ABOVE FREEZING AND DROP BELOW LATE AT NIGHT FOR
MOST OF THE CWA...SO A PERIOD OF SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...WITH CWA BEING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...PRECIP AMOUNTS
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM.

BY LATE WEEK...MODEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES WITH ECMWF FAVORING AN
UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE GFS FAVORS THE UPPER
LOW FURTHER NORTH AND A COLD FROPA ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR TDA-TNGT. MOST CLDS WL BE MID-DECK.

WL HV LWRG CIGS SUN AFTN AS PCPN APPROACHES. NO RESTRICTIONS XPCTD
DURING MOST OF THE DAY...BUT DETERIORATING CONDS WL BE APPRCHG FM
THE SW...POTENTIALLY AFFECTING AFTN PUSH.

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR MONDAY
MORNING...WITH GUSTY S-SW WINDS. FLIGHT CONDITIONS UNCERTAIN MIDWEEK
WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME PRECIPITATION FROM A COASTAL SYSTEM.
&&

.MARINE...
WL HV SLY WINDS ON THE WATERS THIS WKND. WHILE THERE WL PDS W/
DECENT FLOW...MIXING WL BE QUITE POOR OVER LWR-MID 40S WATER TEMPS.
HV CAPPED WINDS AOB 15 KT.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A
WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY
EVENING. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE MIDWEEK WITH A COASTAL LOW...BUT
STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STILL HV WATER LVLS 1/2 TO 1 FT BLO ASTRO TIDES. WINDS WILL BECOME
SLY AFTER DAYBREAK...WHICH WL BRING WATER BACK TO NORMAL LVLS. MAY
EVEN BE A PINCH ABV NORMAL BY THIS EVENING.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...KCS
AVIATION...HTS/KCS
MARINE...HTS/KCS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 220844
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
344 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TODAY. A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT STALLS JUST OFFSHORE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HIPRES ATOP CWFA ELY THIS MRNG. W/ CLR SKIES AND LTL/NO WIND...
TEMPS WUD HV AN OPPORTUNITY TO DROP TO DEWPTS IN THE TEENS. HWVR...
WAA SEEMS TO BE HVG AN INFLUENCE AS TEMPS HV LVLD OFF PAST FEW HRS.

SFC HIGH WL MOVE OFFSHORE TDA...PROVIDING SWLY FLOW TO CWFA. AS
SUCH...WAA WL INCREASE. H8 TEMPS SHUD BE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 6C
BY DAYS END. HENCE...AM REFLECTING A SHARP WARM UP IN MAXT...NEAR
MAV/MET/ECS BLEND. /ECS SOLN A COMPROMISE OF THE OTHER TWO ANYWAY./
ONLY WRINKLE WL BE ISENT LIFT INDUCING SOME CLDCVR...SPCLY DURING
THE AFTN. SEEMS LIKE ANY DECENT LIFT REMAINS CONFINED NW OF CWFA...
SO WL KEEP FCST DRY.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
RDGG WL PROTECT CWFA TNGT AS WELL. WL HV DISTURBANCES ALONG THE NWRN
PERHIPHERY AS WELL AS APPROACHING FM THE S. SHUD HV CLDS NAK/DCA/SHD
NWD...BUT OTRW NONE OF THIS WL AFFECT AREA. WL BE ABLE TO RADIATE
AFDK...BUT SUSPECT WE/LL KEEP A PINCH OF SWLY FLOW AS WELL...SO IT
WONT BE ABLE TO GET ALL THAT COLD /SPCLY ON THE RDGTOPS/. CHGS FM
GOING FCST NOT THAT SGFNT.

BY SUN...PVA FM SRN STREAM WL BEGIN TO AFFECT AREA...SPCLY DURING
THE AFTN HRS. WL START THE DAY MOSUN...BUT CLDS WL OVERSPREAD HRS
MIDDAY/ELY AFTN AND WL BRING PCPN NEWD AFT 18Z. AM MOST CONFIDENT ON
RA TWD/AFTER SUNSET DUE TO CONTD INFLUENCE OF SFC RDGG AND NEED TO
SATURATE LLVLS FIRST. MAXT ONCE AGN A BLEND OF MOS.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE VERY STRONG LLJ
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...ON THE ORDER OF 50-70KTS AT 850MB.
ISENTROPIC LIFT...THE LLJ AND PWATS PEAKING AROUND 1.5 INCHES WILL
SUPPORT A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...WITH OTHERWISE STEADY LIGHT RAIN. BASIN WIDE QPF EXPECTED TO
BE LESS THAN AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF RAIN POSSIBLE.
LOW TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S...WITH LOW 50S IN SOME
SPOTS ALONG AND EAST OF I-95.

WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS PA BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING...WITH
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. PRESSURE GRADIENT
BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A BREEZY DAY...WITH
S-SW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20-25 MPH. SOME MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS
SCATTERED OR ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA...BUT KEPT
POPS CORRESPONDINGLY LOW. WARM AIRMASS WILL BRING A BRIEF RETURN TO
MILD TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE VALLEYS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. 00Z NAM SUGGESTS POTENTIAL
FOR ORGANIZED SHOWERS...BUT IS NOT SUPPORTED BY GFS OR ECMWF. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS PRIMARILY IN THE
40S...WITH SOME 30S IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND HIGHLANDS.

CONFIDENCE DECREASES WITH SYNOPTIC SETUP FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.
GENERAL SCENARIO IS THAT HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST...BUT A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND MOVES
THROUGH THE OFFSHORE WATERS. 00Z GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER IN
TIMING...LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW. FCST AT THIS POINT CALLS
FOR POTENTIAL SHOWERS TUESDAY EAST OF I-95...FOLLOWED BY LIGHT RAIN
OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL INCLUDES
MOST OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE 40S...SO ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE LIQUID. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TEMPS START ABOVE FREEZING AND DROP BELOW LATE AT NIGHT FOR
MOST OF THE CWA...SO A PERIOD OF SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...WITH CWA BEING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...PRECIP AMOUNTS
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM.

BY LATE WEEK...MODEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES WITH ECMWF FAVORING AN
UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE GFS FAVORS THE UPPER
LOW FURTHER NORTH AND A COLD FROPA ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR TDA-TNGT. MOST CLDS WL BE MID-DECK.

WL HV LWRG CIGS SUN AFTN AS PCPN APPROACHES. NO RESTRICTIONS XPCTD
DURING MOST OF THE DAY...BUT DETERIORATING CONDS WL BE APPRCHG FM
THE SW...POTENTIALLY AFFECTING AFTN PUSH.

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR MONDAY
MORNING...WITH GUSTY S-SW WINDS. FLIGHT CONDITIONS UNCERTAIN MIDWEEK
WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME PRECIPITATION FROM A COASTAL SYSTEM.
&&

.MARINE...
WL HV SLY WINDS ON THE WATERS THIS WKND. WHILE THERE WL PDS W/
DECENT FLOW...MIXING WL BE QUITE POOR OVER LWR-MID 40S WATER TEMPS.
HV CAPPED WINDS AOB 15 KT.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A
WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY
EVENING. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE MIDWEEK WITH A COASTAL LOW...BUT
STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STILL HV WATER LVLS 1/2 TO 1 FT BLO ASTRO TIDES. WINDS WILL BECOME
SLY AFTER DAYBREAK...WHICH WL BRING WATER BACK TO NORMAL LVLS. MAY
EVEN BE A PINCH ABV NORMAL BY THIS EVENING.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...KCS
AVIATION...HTS/KCS
MARINE...HTS/KCS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220549
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1249 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH
WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH AND ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
STRONG/COLD SFC HIGH PRESSURE (~1035 MB) CENTERED OVER THE REGION
THIS EVENING. SKIES ARE CLEAR AND WINDS ARE GENLY CALM (LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS AT SOME COASTAL SITES IN SE VA/NE NC). MADE ONLY
MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY IN THE
20S EXCEPT FOR SOME LOW 30S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS WILL DROP
ANOTHER 5 DEGREES OR SO OVERNIGHT...WITH MINS RANGING FROM THE MID
TEENS IN THE TYPICALLY COLDEST SPOTS TO AROUND 30 F AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST OF SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE HI WILL SLIDE OFF THE CST LATE SAT INTO SUN. SSW WINDS WILL
PICK UP TO NEAR 10 MPH IN MOST AREAS LATE SAT MORNG THRU THE AFTN
HELPING TO WARM TEMPS INTO THE UPR 40S TO LWR 50S UNDER A SUNNY OR
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND THICKEN FM
THE SW LATE SAT NGT INTO MIDDAY SUN...AS GULF CST MOISTURE AND AN
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFTS NWRD INTO THE SE UNITED STATES.
CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY SAT NGT WITH LOWS
RANGING THRU THE 30S.

THE WARM FRONT WITH STRONG VERTICAL MOTION AND ASSOCIATED
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE WILL LIFT NNE AND ACRS THE REGION SUN AFTN
INTO SUN NGT. HAVE POPS FOR RAIN INCREASING TO 80% EVERYWHERE
BETWEEN 00Z-06Z MON...THEN DIMINISH TO 70% NE TO 40% SW BETWEEN
06Z-12Z MON. HIGHS ON SUN RANGING FM THE MID 50S INTO THE LWR 60S.
LOWS SUN NGT RANGING THRU THE 50S. THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL
NNE OF THE REGION AT 12Z MON...WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING TWD/INTO
OUR EXTRM WRN CNTIES BY 00Z TUE. AFTER LWR CLOUDS AND FOG MON
MORNG...SW WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL HELP TEMPS CLIMB
INTO THE LWR TO MID 70S UNDER A PARTLY SUNNY SKY. FOR NOW...JUST
HAVE A SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS EVERYWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST BY 12Z TUE. BNDRY THEN
STALLS OVR THE GULF STREAM TUE & WED IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF
S/W`S PROGGED TO DVLP THEN MOVE NE ALONG IT. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRS
(OF PACIFIC ORIGIN) OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION BUILDS S&E THRU
THE MID WEEK PRD. UPR LVL LOW AND TRAILING CDFRNT PROGGED TO DIVE
SE FROM THE GT LAKES THU WITH HIGH PRS BUILDING INTO THE ARA FRI.

GRIDS WILL INDICATE SLGHT CHC SHWRS WITH FROPA MONDAY NIGHT. COOLER
AS CAA SET IN BEHIND THE FRNT. LOWS M-U40S NWRN HALF 50-55 SERN
HALF. TUE THRU WED FCST DEPENDS ON HOW FAR N&W MSTR GETS FROM THE
DVLPNG LOW OFF THE SERN COAST. GFS HAS A TRACK A BIT FRTHR EAST
KEEPING THE PCPN CONFINED TO SERN CSTL AREAS BY LATE TUE...AND GNRLY
E OF I95 WED. ECMWF SLOWER WITH A DRY TUE...PCPN MOVG ACROSS SERN
CSTL AREAS TUE NIGHT THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA WED BEFORE
PULLING OUT TO SEAS WED NIGHT.

TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF WITH THE COASTAL LOW TUE & WED...BUT THNK
IT IS OVERDONE WRT THE DEEPENING OF THE LOW OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST
TURKEY DAY. WILL INDICATE 20-30 POP ACROSS SERN CSTL AREAS TUE. DRY
ELSEWHERE. HIGHS M50S-L60S. A GENERAL RAIN OVRSPRDS THE FA SE-NW
TUES NIGHT AND WED...THEN ENDS WED EVE AS THE LOW PULLS FRTHR
OFFSHORE. PCPN ALL LIQUID WITH THIS EVENT. LOWS TUE NIGHT M30S-M40S.
HIGHS WED M40S-L50S. PCPN ENDS WED EVE BEFORE THE COLD AIR ARRIVES.
LOWS AFTER THE RAIN ENDS FALL INTO THE U20S-L30S W OF THE
BAY...M-U30S SERN CSTL AREAS.

CLIPPER TYPE S/W DIVES SE THU. ENUF MSTR SEEN WITH THIS FTR FOR AT
LEAST SLGHT CHC DIURNAL SHWRS (PSBLY MIXED WITH IP???) THANKSGIVING
DAY. HIGHS 45-50. DRYING OUT THURS NIGHT AND FRI. LOWS U20S-M30S
XCPT 35-40 SERN CSTL AREAS. HIGHS FRI M-U40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS WITH MOSTLY CLR SKY AND LIGHT
WIND. LOW DEWPTS MEAN NO FOG IS EXPECTED. WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT
OUT OF THE N-E AND WILL GRADUALLY SHFT TO SW BY THIS AFTN. HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TDA...MOVING WELL
OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY.

A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN AND
MVFR/IFR CONDS LATE SUN INTO MON MRNG.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL MAINTAIN SCA`S OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS (MAINLY FOR
SEAS)...WITH HEADLINES NOW CANCELLED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
MARINE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SAT...THEN MOVES
WELL OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. MODELS NOW SLOWER WITH THE APPRCH OF THE
NEXT SYSTM FROM THE SW. THUS...NXT CHC FOR SCA HEADLINES COMES SUN
NIGHT AND MON AS PRS GRDNT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF APPRCHG CDFRNT.

TIDE ANOMALIES CONTG TO AVG ARND 1/2 FOOT BLO NORMAL INTO SUN.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...LKB/TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...MAS/DAP/JEF
MARINE...MPR







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220549
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1249 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH
WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH AND ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
STRONG/COLD SFC HIGH PRESSURE (~1035 MB) CENTERED OVER THE REGION
THIS EVENING. SKIES ARE CLEAR AND WINDS ARE GENLY CALM (LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS AT SOME COASTAL SITES IN SE VA/NE NC). MADE ONLY
MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY IN THE
20S EXCEPT FOR SOME LOW 30S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS WILL DROP
ANOTHER 5 DEGREES OR SO OVERNIGHT...WITH MINS RANGING FROM THE MID
TEENS IN THE TYPICALLY COLDEST SPOTS TO AROUND 30 F AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST OF SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE HI WILL SLIDE OFF THE CST LATE SAT INTO SUN. SSW WINDS WILL
PICK UP TO NEAR 10 MPH IN MOST AREAS LATE SAT MORNG THRU THE AFTN
HELPING TO WARM TEMPS INTO THE UPR 40S TO LWR 50S UNDER A SUNNY OR
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND THICKEN FM
THE SW LATE SAT NGT INTO MIDDAY SUN...AS GULF CST MOISTURE AND AN
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFTS NWRD INTO THE SE UNITED STATES.
CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY SAT NGT WITH LOWS
RANGING THRU THE 30S.

THE WARM FRONT WITH STRONG VERTICAL MOTION AND ASSOCIATED
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE WILL LIFT NNE AND ACRS THE REGION SUN AFTN
INTO SUN NGT. HAVE POPS FOR RAIN INCREASING TO 80% EVERYWHERE
BETWEEN 00Z-06Z MON...THEN DIMINISH TO 70% NE TO 40% SW BETWEEN
06Z-12Z MON. HIGHS ON SUN RANGING FM THE MID 50S INTO THE LWR 60S.
LOWS SUN NGT RANGING THRU THE 50S. THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL
NNE OF THE REGION AT 12Z MON...WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING TWD/INTO
OUR EXTRM WRN CNTIES BY 00Z TUE. AFTER LWR CLOUDS AND FOG MON
MORNG...SW WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL HELP TEMPS CLIMB
INTO THE LWR TO MID 70S UNDER A PARTLY SUNNY SKY. FOR NOW...JUST
HAVE A SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS EVERYWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST BY 12Z TUE. BNDRY THEN
STALLS OVR THE GULF STREAM TUE & WED IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF
S/W`S PROGGED TO DVLP THEN MOVE NE ALONG IT. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRS
(OF PACIFIC ORIGIN) OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION BUILDS S&E THRU
THE MID WEEK PRD. UPR LVL LOW AND TRAILING CDFRNT PROGGED TO DIVE
SE FROM THE GT LAKES THU WITH HIGH PRS BUILDING INTO THE ARA FRI.

GRIDS WILL INDICATE SLGHT CHC SHWRS WITH FROPA MONDAY NIGHT. COOLER
AS CAA SET IN BEHIND THE FRNT. LOWS M-U40S NWRN HALF 50-55 SERN
HALF. TUE THRU WED FCST DEPENDS ON HOW FAR N&W MSTR GETS FROM THE
DVLPNG LOW OFF THE SERN COAST. GFS HAS A TRACK A BIT FRTHR EAST
KEEPING THE PCPN CONFINED TO SERN CSTL AREAS BY LATE TUE...AND GNRLY
E OF I95 WED. ECMWF SLOWER WITH A DRY TUE...PCPN MOVG ACROSS SERN
CSTL AREAS TUE NIGHT THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA WED BEFORE
PULLING OUT TO SEAS WED NIGHT.

TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF WITH THE COASTAL LOW TUE & WED...BUT THNK
IT IS OVERDONE WRT THE DEEPENING OF THE LOW OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST
TURKEY DAY. WILL INDICATE 20-30 POP ACROSS SERN CSTL AREAS TUE. DRY
ELSEWHERE. HIGHS M50S-L60S. A GENERAL RAIN OVRSPRDS THE FA SE-NW
TUES NIGHT AND WED...THEN ENDS WED EVE AS THE LOW PULLS FRTHR
OFFSHORE. PCPN ALL LIQUID WITH THIS EVENT. LOWS TUE NIGHT M30S-M40S.
HIGHS WED M40S-L50S. PCPN ENDS WED EVE BEFORE THE COLD AIR ARRIVES.
LOWS AFTER THE RAIN ENDS FALL INTO THE U20S-L30S W OF THE
BAY...M-U30S SERN CSTL AREAS.

CLIPPER TYPE S/W DIVES SE THU. ENUF MSTR SEEN WITH THIS FTR FOR AT
LEAST SLGHT CHC DIURNAL SHWRS (PSBLY MIXED WITH IP???) THANKSGIVING
DAY. HIGHS 45-50. DRYING OUT THURS NIGHT AND FRI. LOWS U20S-M30S
XCPT 35-40 SERN CSTL AREAS. HIGHS FRI M-U40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS WITH MOSTLY CLR SKY AND LIGHT
WIND. LOW DEWPTS MEAN NO FOG IS EXPECTED. WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT
OUT OF THE N-E AND WILL GRADUALLY SHFT TO SW BY THIS AFTN. HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TDA...MOVING WELL
OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY.

A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN AND
MVFR/IFR CONDS LATE SUN INTO MON MRNG.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL MAINTAIN SCA`S OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS (MAINLY FOR
SEAS)...WITH HEADLINES NOW CANCELLED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
MARINE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SAT...THEN MOVES
WELL OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. MODELS NOW SLOWER WITH THE APPRCH OF THE
NEXT SYSTM FROM THE SW. THUS...NXT CHC FOR SCA HEADLINES COMES SUN
NIGHT AND MON AS PRS GRDNT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF APPRCHG CDFRNT.

TIDE ANOMALIES CONTG TO AVG ARND 1/2 FOOT BLO NORMAL INTO SUN.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...LKB/TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...MAS/DAP/JEF
MARINE...MPR






000
FXUS61 KRNK 220544
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1244 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TONIGHT
BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A COMPLEX
STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY...MOVING THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY
BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM BEFORE A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY...RETURNING TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS 1230 AM EST SATURDAY...

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO BETTER DEPICT ADVANCING CIRRUS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND DROP MINS ONE DEGREE SINCE THEY HAVE FALLEN SO
RAPIDLY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM EST FRIDAY...

RIDGING BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT EXTENDING INLAND ACROSS THE SE STATES
WILL WEAKEN SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COMPLEX/LARGE STORM SYSTEM THAT
WILL TAKE SHAPE FROM TX EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES. NEW MODELS
CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF DEEPER MOISTURE WITH
THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT AS PIECES OF CONVECTION FROM THE UPPER LOW
WELL TO THE SW AND OVER THE SE WITH THE COASTAL FRONT TEND TO INHIBIT
TRANSPORT. HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE PERHAPS ENOUGH
ISENTROPIC LIFT/UPSLOPE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO POSSIBLY DEVELOP SOME
LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE NW N CAROLINA MOUNTAINS SO KEPT A VERY LOW
POP LATE ALTHOUGH APPEARS LITTLE MORE THAN DRIZZLE AT THIS POINT.
DO EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE GIVEN THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION SETUP SO
REMOVED ALL FROZEN PRECIP MENTION AT THE ONSET DESPITE SOME COLD
AIR LIKELY TRAPPED IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS. ELSW INCREASING CLOUDS
BUT STILL DRY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY 30S BEFORE EDGING UP
LATE.

SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS...GUIDANCE QUICKLY EJECTS THE PARENT LOW WITH THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WELL TO THE WEST SUNDAY...WITH A
JET DRIVEN BAND OF DEEPER LIFT SWINGING TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
SW ESPCLY DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS MOST SPOTS BY
MIDNIGHT. THIS AHEAD OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT THAT WILL GET SLOWED
UP BY PRECIP INTO A VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...WHICH SHOULD LIKELY
DELAY THE ONSET FARTHER NORTH...BUT ALSO CREATE A WEAK INSITU
WEDGE LATER IN THE DAY. HOWEVER TIMING REMAINS IFFY GIVEN
CONSENSUS OF GOING EVEN SLOWER AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPLITTING OF
THE HEAVIER RAIN PER STRONG DYNAMICS WELL TO THE NW AND CONVECTION
ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. FOR NOW
APPEARS EVEN WITH THAT SCENARIO THAT THE DEEP SOUTH/SE FLOW WILL
BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME TO SOME DEGREE SO CONTINUING THE TREND OF
LIKELY/CAT POPS SLIDING NE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...JUST A COUPLE HOURS
SLOWER SIMILAR TO THE GFS. BRIEF PERIOD OF 50 KNOT WINDS AT 85H
CROSSING THE MTN EMPIRE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON REMAINS A CONCERN
FOR AT LEAST ADVISORY WINDS ON THE RIDGES SO KEEPING MENTION IN
THE HWO FOR A FEW COUNTIES OUT WEST. KEPT HIGHS A BIT BELOW THE
MAV MOS AS THE COOL MET MOS VALUES LOOK TOO COOL GIVEN THE SLOWER
NATURE TO PRECIP ARRIVAL INTO THE DRY AIR...AND THE DEGREE OF
WARMING ABOVE.

BEST UPWARD MOTION AS SEEN VIA MODEL DIFFLUENCE FIELDS LIKELY TO OCCUR
SUNDAY EVENING AS THE AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE ACCELERATES A BIT WITH A
BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN POSSIBLY SWEEPING ACROSS ESPCLY
SOUTHERN/EASTERN SECTIONS. HOWEVER DESPITE STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND
FORECAST HIGH HELICITY...MOST OF THIS TO STAY ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION...AND GIVEN LACK OF MUCH INSTABILITY WILL TAKE A FASTER
SURFACE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER THE SE TO COINCIDE WITH THE
BETTER SHEAR WHICH DOESNT LOOK TO HAPPEN AT THIS POINT. OTRW
RUNNING WITH OVERALL CAT POPS DURING THE EVENING...THEN QUICKLY
CUTTING BACK TO CHANCE OR LESS OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER JET RIDES A
VERY PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT ALOFT INTO THE AREA LATE. LOW TEMPS
SHOULD REMAIN MILD AND COULD RISE SOME LATE AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE
SW FROM ABOVE.

ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILING THE PARENT LOW TO THE NORTH WILL SLIDE
TOWARD THE REGION A BIT FASTER FROM THE WEST MONDAY...WITH THE LAGGING
COLD ADVECTION SPILLING IN MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN VERY SHALLOW BUT MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS FROM
ZOOMING MONDAY AFTERNOON ESPCLY EAST...AND OVER THE FAR WEST WHERE
MORE OF A SHOWER THREAT COULD OCCUR. LATEST MOS REMAINS VERY WARM
PER SUCH MILD 85H TEMPS THAT LOOK TO PUNCH TO THE SURFACE ON GOOD
MIXING BEFORE THINGS COOL ALOFT LATER ON. SINCE TREND IN THIS
SETUP IS USUALLY FOR THE FRONT TO BE SLOWER CROSSING THE RIDGES
AND IN LINE WITH THE 12Z ECMWF...STAYED ON THE WARM SIDE WITH 60S
WEST AND SOME LOW 70S EAST. POPS IFFY BUT INCLUDED A 20/30 POPS
MOST SPOTS WITH SKIES BECOMING PC MONDAY...THEN MOSTLY ISOLATED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WESTERN SLOPES MONDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR OOZES
IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EST FRIDAY...

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO PROGRESS FROM
NEAR JAMES BAY NORTHEAST TOWARDS GREENLAND. THE SYSTEMS TRAILING
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TO NEAR THE EAST COAT OF
THE U.S.  MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERS VARIOUS SOLUTIONS REGARDING A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS PROGGED TO HEAD NORTH ALONG THIS
FRONT...FROM THE GULF COAST STATES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY
MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. ENOUGH SOLUTIONS OFFER THE POTENTIAL THAT THIS WAVE
WILL HELP BUCKLE THE FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WESTWARD...SO
THAT PRECIPITATION RETURNS TO AT LEAST THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
REGION...IF NOT ALSO CENTRAL PORTIONS. OUR LATEST FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY WILL REFLECT THIS POTENTIAL...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
ENOUGH COLDER AIR WILL HAVE MADE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION FOR SOME
TYPE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION. GIVEN THE MODEL VARIATIONS...FOR
SIMPLICITY SAKE...WILL ONLY OFFER A RAIN VERSUS SNOW FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THIS COASTAL WAVE WILL
BE NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND NO LONGER BE A FACTOR IN OUR
FORECAST.

WHAT WILL BECOME A FACTOR IS YET ANOTHER DEEPENING UPPER LOW
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GUIDANCE IS OFFERING THIS ONE TO TAKE A
FARTHER SOUTH TRACK THAN ITS PREDECESSOR...DEEPEN MORE...AND FUNNEL
A STRONGER SURGE OF COLDER AIR INTO OUR REGION. AFTER AN INITIAL
ROUND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION ON
THURSDAY...ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE PREFERRED AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL TREND LOWER EACH DAY...WITH THE
BIGGEST DROP BEING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE
THE ONLY DAY ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE REST OF THE PERIOD BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM EST SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS AT ALL TAF SITES.

ESSENTIALLY A NIL WEATHER FORECAST THIS TAF PACKAGE AS CENTER
OF HIGH PRESSURE STARTS THE PERIOD OVER THE REGION AND SLOWLY
SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST. LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM ARE FORECAST TO
ROTATE AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH TO OUR WEST AND NORTH.
MAYBE A FEW PUFFS OF CU AT KLWB OR KBLF THIS AFTERNOON BUT DO
NOT FEEL IT WARRANTS ANY MENTION IN THE TAF. BUT MODEL UPPER
LEVEL RH FIELDS CORRELATE WELL WITH CIRRUS SEEN STREAMING IN
OUR DIRECTION ON CURRENT SATELLITE LOOP SO IT LOOKS LIKE A HIGH
CIG OF BKN CIRRUS WILL PREVENT SKC FOR SKY CONDITION. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN AND
MVFR OR LOWER CIGS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
ALSO...STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS LATER ON SUNDAY MAY LEAD TO
LLWS...ESPECIALLY THE BLF AREA. A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR DURING
MONDAY OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A DRY SLOT DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE
EXITING FRONT FROM SUNDAY AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK...EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS
EASTERN WV/FAR SW VA...BUT MOSTLY VFR ELSEWHERE WITH A COLDER NW
FLOW.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 215 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WILL BE OUT
OF SERVICE UNTIL PARTS ARRIVE TO REPLACE THE SENSOR. UNTIL THEN
THE VISIBILITY WILL ONLY BE REPORTED WHEN THE CONTROL TOWER IS
STAFFED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/RAB
NEAR TERM...MBS/KK/AMS
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...MBS/KK
EQUIPMENT...RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 220544
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1244 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TONIGHT
BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A COMPLEX
STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY...MOVING THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY
BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM BEFORE A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY...RETURNING TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS 1230 AM EST SATURDAY...

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO BETTER DEPICT ADVANCING CIRRUS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND DROP MINS ONE DEGREE SINCE THEY HAVE FALLEN SO
RAPIDLY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM EST FRIDAY...

RIDGING BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT EXTENDING INLAND ACROSS THE SE STATES
WILL WEAKEN SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COMPLEX/LARGE STORM SYSTEM THAT
WILL TAKE SHAPE FROM TX EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES. NEW MODELS
CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF DEEPER MOISTURE WITH
THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT AS PIECES OF CONVECTION FROM THE UPPER LOW
WELL TO THE SW AND OVER THE SE WITH THE COASTAL FRONT TEND TO INHIBIT
TRANSPORT. HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE PERHAPS ENOUGH
ISENTROPIC LIFT/UPSLOPE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO POSSIBLY DEVELOP SOME
LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE NW N CAROLINA MOUNTAINS SO KEPT A VERY LOW
POP LATE ALTHOUGH APPEARS LITTLE MORE THAN DRIZZLE AT THIS POINT.
DO EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE GIVEN THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION SETUP SO
REMOVED ALL FROZEN PRECIP MENTION AT THE ONSET DESPITE SOME COLD
AIR LIKELY TRAPPED IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS. ELSW INCREASING CLOUDS
BUT STILL DRY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY 30S BEFORE EDGING UP
LATE.

SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS...GUIDANCE QUICKLY EJECTS THE PARENT LOW WITH THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WELL TO THE WEST SUNDAY...WITH A
JET DRIVEN BAND OF DEEPER LIFT SWINGING TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
SW ESPCLY DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS MOST SPOTS BY
MIDNIGHT. THIS AHEAD OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT THAT WILL GET SLOWED
UP BY PRECIP INTO A VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...WHICH SHOULD LIKELY
DELAY THE ONSET FARTHER NORTH...BUT ALSO CREATE A WEAK INSITU
WEDGE LATER IN THE DAY. HOWEVER TIMING REMAINS IFFY GIVEN
CONSENSUS OF GOING EVEN SLOWER AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPLITTING OF
THE HEAVIER RAIN PER STRONG DYNAMICS WELL TO THE NW AND CONVECTION
ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. FOR NOW
APPEARS EVEN WITH THAT SCENARIO THAT THE DEEP SOUTH/SE FLOW WILL
BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME TO SOME DEGREE SO CONTINUING THE TREND OF
LIKELY/CAT POPS SLIDING NE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...JUST A COUPLE HOURS
SLOWER SIMILAR TO THE GFS. BRIEF PERIOD OF 50 KNOT WINDS AT 85H
CROSSING THE MTN EMPIRE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON REMAINS A CONCERN
FOR AT LEAST ADVISORY WINDS ON THE RIDGES SO KEEPING MENTION IN
THE HWO FOR A FEW COUNTIES OUT WEST. KEPT HIGHS A BIT BELOW THE
MAV MOS AS THE COOL MET MOS VALUES LOOK TOO COOL GIVEN THE SLOWER
NATURE TO PRECIP ARRIVAL INTO THE DRY AIR...AND THE DEGREE OF
WARMING ABOVE.

BEST UPWARD MOTION AS SEEN VIA MODEL DIFFLUENCE FIELDS LIKELY TO OCCUR
SUNDAY EVENING AS THE AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE ACCELERATES A BIT WITH A
BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN POSSIBLY SWEEPING ACROSS ESPCLY
SOUTHERN/EASTERN SECTIONS. HOWEVER DESPITE STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND
FORECAST HIGH HELICITY...MOST OF THIS TO STAY ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION...AND GIVEN LACK OF MUCH INSTABILITY WILL TAKE A FASTER
SURFACE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER THE SE TO COINCIDE WITH THE
BETTER SHEAR WHICH DOESNT LOOK TO HAPPEN AT THIS POINT. OTRW
RUNNING WITH OVERALL CAT POPS DURING THE EVENING...THEN QUICKLY
CUTTING BACK TO CHANCE OR LESS OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER JET RIDES A
VERY PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT ALOFT INTO THE AREA LATE. LOW TEMPS
SHOULD REMAIN MILD AND COULD RISE SOME LATE AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE
SW FROM ABOVE.

ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILING THE PARENT LOW TO THE NORTH WILL SLIDE
TOWARD THE REGION A BIT FASTER FROM THE WEST MONDAY...WITH THE LAGGING
COLD ADVECTION SPILLING IN MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN VERY SHALLOW BUT MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS FROM
ZOOMING MONDAY AFTERNOON ESPCLY EAST...AND OVER THE FAR WEST WHERE
MORE OF A SHOWER THREAT COULD OCCUR. LATEST MOS REMAINS VERY WARM
PER SUCH MILD 85H TEMPS THAT LOOK TO PUNCH TO THE SURFACE ON GOOD
MIXING BEFORE THINGS COOL ALOFT LATER ON. SINCE TREND IN THIS
SETUP IS USUALLY FOR THE FRONT TO BE SLOWER CROSSING THE RIDGES
AND IN LINE WITH THE 12Z ECMWF...STAYED ON THE WARM SIDE WITH 60S
WEST AND SOME LOW 70S EAST. POPS IFFY BUT INCLUDED A 20/30 POPS
MOST SPOTS WITH SKIES BECOMING PC MONDAY...THEN MOSTLY ISOLATED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WESTERN SLOPES MONDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR OOZES
IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EST FRIDAY...

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO PROGRESS FROM
NEAR JAMES BAY NORTHEAST TOWARDS GREENLAND. THE SYSTEMS TRAILING
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TO NEAR THE EAST COAT OF
THE U.S.  MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERS VARIOUS SOLUTIONS REGARDING A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS PROGGED TO HEAD NORTH ALONG THIS
FRONT...FROM THE GULF COAST STATES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY
MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. ENOUGH SOLUTIONS OFFER THE POTENTIAL THAT THIS WAVE
WILL HELP BUCKLE THE FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WESTWARD...SO
THAT PRECIPITATION RETURNS TO AT LEAST THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
REGION...IF NOT ALSO CENTRAL PORTIONS. OUR LATEST FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY WILL REFLECT THIS POTENTIAL...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
ENOUGH COLDER AIR WILL HAVE MADE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION FOR SOME
TYPE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION. GIVEN THE MODEL VARIATIONS...FOR
SIMPLICITY SAKE...WILL ONLY OFFER A RAIN VERSUS SNOW FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THIS COASTAL WAVE WILL
BE NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND NO LONGER BE A FACTOR IN OUR
FORECAST.

WHAT WILL BECOME A FACTOR IS YET ANOTHER DEEPENING UPPER LOW
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GUIDANCE IS OFFERING THIS ONE TO TAKE A
FARTHER SOUTH TRACK THAN ITS PREDECESSOR...DEEPEN MORE...AND FUNNEL
A STRONGER SURGE OF COLDER AIR INTO OUR REGION. AFTER AN INITIAL
ROUND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION ON
THURSDAY...ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE PREFERRED AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL TREND LOWER EACH DAY...WITH THE
BIGGEST DROP BEING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE
THE ONLY DAY ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE REST OF THE PERIOD BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM EST SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS AT ALL TAF SITES.

ESSENTIALLY A NIL WEATHER FORECAST THIS TAF PACKAGE AS CENTER
OF HIGH PRESSURE STARTS THE PERIOD OVER THE REGION AND SLOWLY
SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST. LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM ARE FORECAST TO
ROTATE AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH TO OUR WEST AND NORTH.
MAYBE A FEW PUFFS OF CU AT KLWB OR KBLF THIS AFTERNOON BUT DO
NOT FEEL IT WARRANTS ANY MENTION IN THE TAF. BUT MODEL UPPER
LEVEL RH FIELDS CORRELATE WELL WITH CIRRUS SEEN STREAMING IN
OUR DIRECTION ON CURRENT SATELLITE LOOP SO IT LOOKS LIKE A HIGH
CIG OF BKN CIRRUS WILL PREVENT SKC FOR SKY CONDITION. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN AND
MVFR OR LOWER CIGS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
ALSO...STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS LATER ON SUNDAY MAY LEAD TO
LLWS...ESPECIALLY THE BLF AREA. A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR DURING
MONDAY OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A DRY SLOT DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE
EXITING FRONT FROM SUNDAY AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK...EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS
EASTERN WV/FAR SW VA...BUT MOSTLY VFR ELSEWHERE WITH A COLDER NW
FLOW.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 215 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WILL BE OUT
OF SERVICE UNTIL PARTS ARRIVE TO REPLACE THE SENSOR. UNTIL THEN
THE VISIBILITY WILL ONLY BE REPORTED WHEN THE CONTROL TOWER IS
STAFFED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/RAB
NEAR TERM...MBS/KK/AMS
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...MBS/KK
EQUIPMENT...RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 220544
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1244 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TONIGHT
BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A COMPLEX
STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY...MOVING THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY
BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM BEFORE A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY...RETURNING TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS 1230 AM EST SATURDAY...

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO BETTER DEPICT ADVANCING CIRRUS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND DROP MINS ONE DEGREE SINCE THEY HAVE FALLEN SO
RAPIDLY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM EST FRIDAY...

RIDGING BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT EXTENDING INLAND ACROSS THE SE STATES
WILL WEAKEN SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COMPLEX/LARGE STORM SYSTEM THAT
WILL TAKE SHAPE FROM TX EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES. NEW MODELS
CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF DEEPER MOISTURE WITH
THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT AS PIECES OF CONVECTION FROM THE UPPER LOW
WELL TO THE SW AND OVER THE SE WITH THE COASTAL FRONT TEND TO INHIBIT
TRANSPORT. HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE PERHAPS ENOUGH
ISENTROPIC LIFT/UPSLOPE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO POSSIBLY DEVELOP SOME
LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE NW N CAROLINA MOUNTAINS SO KEPT A VERY LOW
POP LATE ALTHOUGH APPEARS LITTLE MORE THAN DRIZZLE AT THIS POINT.
DO EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE GIVEN THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION SETUP SO
REMOVED ALL FROZEN PRECIP MENTION AT THE ONSET DESPITE SOME COLD
AIR LIKELY TRAPPED IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS. ELSW INCREASING CLOUDS
BUT STILL DRY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY 30S BEFORE EDGING UP
LATE.

SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS...GUIDANCE QUICKLY EJECTS THE PARENT LOW WITH THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WELL TO THE WEST SUNDAY...WITH A
JET DRIVEN BAND OF DEEPER LIFT SWINGING TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
SW ESPCLY DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS MOST SPOTS BY
MIDNIGHT. THIS AHEAD OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT THAT WILL GET SLOWED
UP BY PRECIP INTO A VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...WHICH SHOULD LIKELY
DELAY THE ONSET FARTHER NORTH...BUT ALSO CREATE A WEAK INSITU
WEDGE LATER IN THE DAY. HOWEVER TIMING REMAINS IFFY GIVEN
CONSENSUS OF GOING EVEN SLOWER AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPLITTING OF
THE HEAVIER RAIN PER STRONG DYNAMICS WELL TO THE NW AND CONVECTION
ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. FOR NOW
APPEARS EVEN WITH THAT SCENARIO THAT THE DEEP SOUTH/SE FLOW WILL
BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME TO SOME DEGREE SO CONTINUING THE TREND OF
LIKELY/CAT POPS SLIDING NE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...JUST A COUPLE HOURS
SLOWER SIMILAR TO THE GFS. BRIEF PERIOD OF 50 KNOT WINDS AT 85H
CROSSING THE MTN EMPIRE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON REMAINS A CONCERN
FOR AT LEAST ADVISORY WINDS ON THE RIDGES SO KEEPING MENTION IN
THE HWO FOR A FEW COUNTIES OUT WEST. KEPT HIGHS A BIT BELOW THE
MAV MOS AS THE COOL MET MOS VALUES LOOK TOO COOL GIVEN THE SLOWER
NATURE TO PRECIP ARRIVAL INTO THE DRY AIR...AND THE DEGREE OF
WARMING ABOVE.

BEST UPWARD MOTION AS SEEN VIA MODEL DIFFLUENCE FIELDS LIKELY TO OCCUR
SUNDAY EVENING AS THE AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE ACCELERATES A BIT WITH A
BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN POSSIBLY SWEEPING ACROSS ESPCLY
SOUTHERN/EASTERN SECTIONS. HOWEVER DESPITE STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND
FORECAST HIGH HELICITY...MOST OF THIS TO STAY ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION...AND GIVEN LACK OF MUCH INSTABILITY WILL TAKE A FASTER
SURFACE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER THE SE TO COINCIDE WITH THE
BETTER SHEAR WHICH DOESNT LOOK TO HAPPEN AT THIS POINT. OTRW
RUNNING WITH OVERALL CAT POPS DURING THE EVENING...THEN QUICKLY
CUTTING BACK TO CHANCE OR LESS OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER JET RIDES A
VERY PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT ALOFT INTO THE AREA LATE. LOW TEMPS
SHOULD REMAIN MILD AND COULD RISE SOME LATE AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE
SW FROM ABOVE.

ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILING THE PARENT LOW TO THE NORTH WILL SLIDE
TOWARD THE REGION A BIT FASTER FROM THE WEST MONDAY...WITH THE LAGGING
COLD ADVECTION SPILLING IN MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN VERY SHALLOW BUT MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS FROM
ZOOMING MONDAY AFTERNOON ESPCLY EAST...AND OVER THE FAR WEST WHERE
MORE OF A SHOWER THREAT COULD OCCUR. LATEST MOS REMAINS VERY WARM
PER SUCH MILD 85H TEMPS THAT LOOK TO PUNCH TO THE SURFACE ON GOOD
MIXING BEFORE THINGS COOL ALOFT LATER ON. SINCE TREND IN THIS
SETUP IS USUALLY FOR THE FRONT TO BE SLOWER CROSSING THE RIDGES
AND IN LINE WITH THE 12Z ECMWF...STAYED ON THE WARM SIDE WITH 60S
WEST AND SOME LOW 70S EAST. POPS IFFY BUT INCLUDED A 20/30 POPS
MOST SPOTS WITH SKIES BECOMING PC MONDAY...THEN MOSTLY ISOLATED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WESTERN SLOPES MONDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR OOZES
IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EST FRIDAY...

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO PROGRESS FROM
NEAR JAMES BAY NORTHEAST TOWARDS GREENLAND. THE SYSTEMS TRAILING
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TO NEAR THE EAST COAT OF
THE U.S.  MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERS VARIOUS SOLUTIONS REGARDING A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS PROGGED TO HEAD NORTH ALONG THIS
FRONT...FROM THE GULF COAST STATES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY
MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. ENOUGH SOLUTIONS OFFER THE POTENTIAL THAT THIS WAVE
WILL HELP BUCKLE THE FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WESTWARD...SO
THAT PRECIPITATION RETURNS TO AT LEAST THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
REGION...IF NOT ALSO CENTRAL PORTIONS. OUR LATEST FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY WILL REFLECT THIS POTENTIAL...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
ENOUGH COLDER AIR WILL HAVE MADE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION FOR SOME
TYPE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION. GIVEN THE MODEL VARIATIONS...FOR
SIMPLICITY SAKE...WILL ONLY OFFER A RAIN VERSUS SNOW FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THIS COASTAL WAVE WILL
BE NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND NO LONGER BE A FACTOR IN OUR
FORECAST.

WHAT WILL BECOME A FACTOR IS YET ANOTHER DEEPENING UPPER LOW
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GUIDANCE IS OFFERING THIS ONE TO TAKE A
FARTHER SOUTH TRACK THAN ITS PREDECESSOR...DEEPEN MORE...AND FUNNEL
A STRONGER SURGE OF COLDER AIR INTO OUR REGION. AFTER AN INITIAL
ROUND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION ON
THURSDAY...ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE PREFERRED AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL TREND LOWER EACH DAY...WITH THE
BIGGEST DROP BEING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE
THE ONLY DAY ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE REST OF THE PERIOD BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM EST SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS AT ALL TAF SITES.

ESSENTIALLY A NIL WEATHER FORECAST THIS TAF PACKAGE AS CENTER
OF HIGH PRESSURE STARTS THE PERIOD OVER THE REGION AND SLOWLY
SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST. LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM ARE FORECAST TO
ROTATE AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH TO OUR WEST AND NORTH.
MAYBE A FEW PUFFS OF CU AT KLWB OR KBLF THIS AFTERNOON BUT DO
NOT FEEL IT WARRANTS ANY MENTION IN THE TAF. BUT MODEL UPPER
LEVEL RH FIELDS CORRELATE WELL WITH CIRRUS SEEN STREAMING IN
OUR DIRECTION ON CURRENT SATELLITE LOOP SO IT LOOKS LIKE A HIGH
CIG OF BKN CIRRUS WILL PREVENT SKC FOR SKY CONDITION. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN AND
MVFR OR LOWER CIGS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
ALSO...STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS LATER ON SUNDAY MAY LEAD TO
LLWS...ESPECIALLY THE BLF AREA. A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR DURING
MONDAY OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A DRY SLOT DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE
EXITING FRONT FROM SUNDAY AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK...EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS
EASTERN WV/FAR SW VA...BUT MOSTLY VFR ELSEWHERE WITH A COLDER NW
FLOW.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 215 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WILL BE OUT
OF SERVICE UNTIL PARTS ARRIVE TO REPLACE THE SENSOR. UNTIL THEN
THE VISIBILITY WILL ONLY BE REPORTED WHEN THE CONTROL TOWER IS
STAFFED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/RAB
NEAR TERM...MBS/KK/AMS
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...MBS/KK
EQUIPMENT...RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 220544
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1244 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TONIGHT
BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A COMPLEX
STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY...MOVING THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY
BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM BEFORE A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY...RETURNING TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS 1230 AM EST SATURDAY...

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO BETTER DEPICT ADVANCING CIRRUS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND DROP MINS ONE DEGREE SINCE THEY HAVE FALLEN SO
RAPIDLY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM EST FRIDAY...

RIDGING BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT EXTENDING INLAND ACROSS THE SE STATES
WILL WEAKEN SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COMPLEX/LARGE STORM SYSTEM THAT
WILL TAKE SHAPE FROM TX EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES. NEW MODELS
CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF DEEPER MOISTURE WITH
THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT AS PIECES OF CONVECTION FROM THE UPPER LOW
WELL TO THE SW AND OVER THE SE WITH THE COASTAL FRONT TEND TO INHIBIT
TRANSPORT. HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE PERHAPS ENOUGH
ISENTROPIC LIFT/UPSLOPE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO POSSIBLY DEVELOP SOME
LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE NW N CAROLINA MOUNTAINS SO KEPT A VERY LOW
POP LATE ALTHOUGH APPEARS LITTLE MORE THAN DRIZZLE AT THIS POINT.
DO EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE GIVEN THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION SETUP SO
REMOVED ALL FROZEN PRECIP MENTION AT THE ONSET DESPITE SOME COLD
AIR LIKELY TRAPPED IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS. ELSW INCREASING CLOUDS
BUT STILL DRY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY 30S BEFORE EDGING UP
LATE.

SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS...GUIDANCE QUICKLY EJECTS THE PARENT LOW WITH THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WELL TO THE WEST SUNDAY...WITH A
JET DRIVEN BAND OF DEEPER LIFT SWINGING TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
SW ESPCLY DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS MOST SPOTS BY
MIDNIGHT. THIS AHEAD OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT THAT WILL GET SLOWED
UP BY PRECIP INTO A VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...WHICH SHOULD LIKELY
DELAY THE ONSET FARTHER NORTH...BUT ALSO CREATE A WEAK INSITU
WEDGE LATER IN THE DAY. HOWEVER TIMING REMAINS IFFY GIVEN
CONSENSUS OF GOING EVEN SLOWER AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPLITTING OF
THE HEAVIER RAIN PER STRONG DYNAMICS WELL TO THE NW AND CONVECTION
ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. FOR NOW
APPEARS EVEN WITH THAT SCENARIO THAT THE DEEP SOUTH/SE FLOW WILL
BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME TO SOME DEGREE SO CONTINUING THE TREND OF
LIKELY/CAT POPS SLIDING NE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...JUST A COUPLE HOURS
SLOWER SIMILAR TO THE GFS. BRIEF PERIOD OF 50 KNOT WINDS AT 85H
CROSSING THE MTN EMPIRE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON REMAINS A CONCERN
FOR AT LEAST ADVISORY WINDS ON THE RIDGES SO KEEPING MENTION IN
THE HWO FOR A FEW COUNTIES OUT WEST. KEPT HIGHS A BIT BELOW THE
MAV MOS AS THE COOL MET MOS VALUES LOOK TOO COOL GIVEN THE SLOWER
NATURE TO PRECIP ARRIVAL INTO THE DRY AIR...AND THE DEGREE OF
WARMING ABOVE.

BEST UPWARD MOTION AS SEEN VIA MODEL DIFFLUENCE FIELDS LIKELY TO OCCUR
SUNDAY EVENING AS THE AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE ACCELERATES A BIT WITH A
BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN POSSIBLY SWEEPING ACROSS ESPCLY
SOUTHERN/EASTERN SECTIONS. HOWEVER DESPITE STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND
FORECAST HIGH HELICITY...MOST OF THIS TO STAY ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION...AND GIVEN LACK OF MUCH INSTABILITY WILL TAKE A FASTER
SURFACE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER THE SE TO COINCIDE WITH THE
BETTER SHEAR WHICH DOESNT LOOK TO HAPPEN AT THIS POINT. OTRW
RUNNING WITH OVERALL CAT POPS DURING THE EVENING...THEN QUICKLY
CUTTING BACK TO CHANCE OR LESS OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER JET RIDES A
VERY PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT ALOFT INTO THE AREA LATE. LOW TEMPS
SHOULD REMAIN MILD AND COULD RISE SOME LATE AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE
SW FROM ABOVE.

ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILING THE PARENT LOW TO THE NORTH WILL SLIDE
TOWARD THE REGION A BIT FASTER FROM THE WEST MONDAY...WITH THE LAGGING
COLD ADVECTION SPILLING IN MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN VERY SHALLOW BUT MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS FROM
ZOOMING MONDAY AFTERNOON ESPCLY EAST...AND OVER THE FAR WEST WHERE
MORE OF A SHOWER THREAT COULD OCCUR. LATEST MOS REMAINS VERY WARM
PER SUCH MILD 85H TEMPS THAT LOOK TO PUNCH TO THE SURFACE ON GOOD
MIXING BEFORE THINGS COOL ALOFT LATER ON. SINCE TREND IN THIS
SETUP IS USUALLY FOR THE FRONT TO BE SLOWER CROSSING THE RIDGES
AND IN LINE WITH THE 12Z ECMWF...STAYED ON THE WARM SIDE WITH 60S
WEST AND SOME LOW 70S EAST. POPS IFFY BUT INCLUDED A 20/30 POPS
MOST SPOTS WITH SKIES BECOMING PC MONDAY...THEN MOSTLY ISOLATED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WESTERN SLOPES MONDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR OOZES
IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EST FRIDAY...

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO PROGRESS FROM
NEAR JAMES BAY NORTHEAST TOWARDS GREENLAND. THE SYSTEMS TRAILING
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TO NEAR THE EAST COAT OF
THE U.S.  MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERS VARIOUS SOLUTIONS REGARDING A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS PROGGED TO HEAD NORTH ALONG THIS
FRONT...FROM THE GULF COAST STATES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY
MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. ENOUGH SOLUTIONS OFFER THE POTENTIAL THAT THIS WAVE
WILL HELP BUCKLE THE FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WESTWARD...SO
THAT PRECIPITATION RETURNS TO AT LEAST THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
REGION...IF NOT ALSO CENTRAL PORTIONS. OUR LATEST FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY WILL REFLECT THIS POTENTIAL...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
ENOUGH COLDER AIR WILL HAVE MADE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION FOR SOME
TYPE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION. GIVEN THE MODEL VARIATIONS...FOR
SIMPLICITY SAKE...WILL ONLY OFFER A RAIN VERSUS SNOW FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THIS COASTAL WAVE WILL
BE NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND NO LONGER BE A FACTOR IN OUR
FORECAST.

WHAT WILL BECOME A FACTOR IS YET ANOTHER DEEPENING UPPER LOW
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GUIDANCE IS OFFERING THIS ONE TO TAKE A
FARTHER SOUTH TRACK THAN ITS PREDECESSOR...DEEPEN MORE...AND FUNNEL
A STRONGER SURGE OF COLDER AIR INTO OUR REGION. AFTER AN INITIAL
ROUND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION ON
THURSDAY...ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE PREFERRED AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL TREND LOWER EACH DAY...WITH THE
BIGGEST DROP BEING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE
THE ONLY DAY ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE REST OF THE PERIOD BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM EST SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS AT ALL TAF SITES.

ESSENTIALLY A NIL WEATHER FORECAST THIS TAF PACKAGE AS CENTER
OF HIGH PRESSURE STARTS THE PERIOD OVER THE REGION AND SLOWLY
SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST. LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM ARE FORECAST TO
ROTATE AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH TO OUR WEST AND NORTH.
MAYBE A FEW PUFFS OF CU AT KLWB OR KBLF THIS AFTERNOON BUT DO
NOT FEEL IT WARRANTS ANY MENTION IN THE TAF. BUT MODEL UPPER
LEVEL RH FIELDS CORRELATE WELL WITH CIRRUS SEEN STREAMING IN
OUR DIRECTION ON CURRENT SATELLITE LOOP SO IT LOOKS LIKE A HIGH
CIG OF BKN CIRRUS WILL PREVENT SKC FOR SKY CONDITION. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN AND
MVFR OR LOWER CIGS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
ALSO...STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS LATER ON SUNDAY MAY LEAD TO
LLWS...ESPECIALLY THE BLF AREA. A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR DURING
MONDAY OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A DRY SLOT DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE
EXITING FRONT FROM SUNDAY AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK...EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS
EASTERN WV/FAR SW VA...BUT MOSTLY VFR ELSEWHERE WITH A COLDER NW
FLOW.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 215 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WILL BE OUT
OF SERVICE UNTIL PARTS ARRIVE TO REPLACE THE SENSOR. UNTIL THEN
THE VISIBILITY WILL ONLY BE REPORTED WHEN THE CONTROL TOWER IS
STAFFED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/RAB
NEAR TERM...MBS/KK/AMS
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...MBS/KK
EQUIPMENT...RAB




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220317
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1017 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH
WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH AND ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
STRONG/COLD SFC HIGH PRESSURE (~1035 MB) CENTERED OVER THE REGION
THIS EVENING. SKIES ARE CLEAR AND WINDS ARE GENLY CALM (LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS AT SOME COASTAL SITES IN SE VA/NE NC). MADE ONLY
MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY IN THE
20S EXCEPT FOR SOME LOW 30S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS WILL DROP
ANOTHER 5 DEGREES OR SO OVERNIGHT...WITH MINS RANGING FROM THE MID
TEENS IN THE TYPICALLY COLDEST SPOTS TO AROUND 30 F AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST OF SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE HI WILL SLIDE OFF THE CST LATE SAT INTO SUN. SSW WINDS WILL
PICK UP TO NEAR 10 MPH IN MOST AREAS LATE SAT MORNG THRU THE AFTN
HELPING TO WARM TEMPS INTO THE UPR 40S TO LWR 50S UNDER A SUNNY OR
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND THICKEN FM
THE SW LATE SAT NGT INTO MIDDAY SUN...AS GULF CST MOISTURE AND AN
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFTS NWRD INTO THE SE UNITED STATES.
CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY SAT NGT WITH LOWS
RANGING THRU THE 30S.

THE WARM FRONT WITH STRONG VERTICAL MOTION AND ASSOCIATED
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE WILL LIFT NNE AND ACRS THE REGION SUN AFTN
INTO SUN NGT. HAVE POPS FOR RAIN INCREASING TO 80% EVERYWHERE
BETWEEN 00Z-06Z MON...THEN DIMINISH TO 70% NE TO 40% SW BETWEEN
06Z-12Z MON. HIGHS ON SUN RANGING FM THE MID 50S INTO THE LWR 60S.
LOWS SUN NGT RANGING THRU THE 50S. THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL
NNE OF THE REGION AT 12Z MON...WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING TWD/INTO
OUR EXTRM WRN CNTIES BY 00Z TUE. AFTER LWR CLOUDS AND FOG MON
MORNG...SW WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL HELP TEMPS CLIMB
INTO THE LWR TO MID 70S UNDER A PARTLY SUNNY SKY. FOR NOW...JUST
HAVE A SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS EVERYWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST BY 12Z TUE. BNDRY THEN
STALLS OVR THE GULF STREAM TUE & WED IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF
S/W`S PROGGED TO DVLP THEN MOVE NE ALONG IT. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRS
(OF PACIFIC ORIGIN) OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION BUILDS S&E THRU
THE MID WEEK PRD. UPR LVL LOW AND TRAILING CDFRNT PROGGED TO DIVE
SE FROM THE GT LAKES THU WITH HIGH PRS BUILDING INTO THE ARA FRI.

GRIDS WILL INDICATE SLGHT CHC SHWRS WITH FROPA MONDAY NIGHT. COOLER
AS CAA SET IN BEHIND THE FRNT. LOWS M-U40S NWRN HALF 50-55 SERN
HALF. TUE THRU WED FCST DEPENDS ON HOW FAR N&W MSTR GETS FROM THE
DVLPNG LOW OFF THE SERN COAST. GFS HAS A TRACK A BIT FRTHR EAST
KEEPING THE PCPN CONFINED TO SERN CSTL AREAS BY LATE TUE...AND GNRLY
E OF I95 WED. ECMWF SLOWER WITH A DRY TUE...PCPN MOVG ACROSS SERN
CSTL AREAS TUE NIGHT THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA WED BEFORE
PULLING OUT TO SEAS WED NIGHT.

TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF WITH THE COASTAL LOW TUE & WED...BUT THNK
IT IS OVERDONE WRT THE DEEPENING OF THE LOW OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST
TURKEY DAY. WILL INDICATE 20-30 POP ACROSS SERN CSTL AREAS TUE. DRY
ELSEWHERE. HIGHS M50S-L60S. A GENERAL RAIN OVRSPRDS THE FA SE-NW
TUES NIGHT AND WED...THEN ENDS WED EVE AS THE LOW PULLS FRTHR
OFFSHORE. PCPN ALL LIQUID WITH THIS EVENT. LOWS TUE NIGHT M30S-M40S.
HIGHS WED M40S-L50S. PCPN ENDS WED EVE BEFORE THE COLD AIR ARRIVES.
LOWS AFTER THE RAIN ENDS FALL INTO THE U20S-L30S W OF THE
BAY...M-U30S SERN CSTL AREAS.

CLIPPER TYPE S/W DIVES SE THU. ENUF MSTR SEEN WITH THIS FTR FOR AT
LEAST SLGHT CHC DIURNAL SHWRS (PSBLY MIXED WITH IP???) THANKSGIVING
DAY. HIGHS 45-50. DRYING OUT THURS NIGHT AND FRI. LOWS U20S-M30S
XCPT 35-40 SERN CSTL AREAS. HIGHS FRI M-U40S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS WITH MOSTLY CLR SKY AND LIGHT
WIND. LOW DEWPTS MEAN NO FOG IS EXPECTED. WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT
OUT OF THE N-E AND WILL GRADUALLY SHFT TO SW BY SAT AFTN. HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION INTO SAT...MOVING
WELL OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY.

A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN AND
MVFR/IFR CONDS LATE SUN INTO MON MRNG.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL MAINTAIN SCA`S OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS (MAINLY FOR
SEAS)...WITH HEADLINES NOW CANCELLED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
MARINE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SAT...THEN MOVES
WELL OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. MODELS NOW SLOWER WITH THE APPRCH OF THE
NEXT SYSTM FROM THE SW. THUS...NXT CHC FOR SCA HEADLINES COMES SUN
NIGHT AND MON AS PRS GRDNT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF APPRCHG CDFRNT.

TIDE ANOMALIES CONTG TO AVG ARND 1/2 FOOT BLO NORMAL INTO SUN.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...LKB/TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...DAP/JEF
MARINE...MPR






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220317
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1017 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH
WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH AND ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
STRONG/COLD SFC HIGH PRESSURE (~1035 MB) CENTERED OVER THE REGION
THIS EVENING. SKIES ARE CLEAR AND WINDS ARE GENLY CALM (LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS AT SOME COASTAL SITES IN SE VA/NE NC). MADE ONLY
MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY IN THE
20S EXCEPT FOR SOME LOW 30S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS WILL DROP
ANOTHER 5 DEGREES OR SO OVERNIGHT...WITH MINS RANGING FROM THE MID
TEENS IN THE TYPICALLY COLDEST SPOTS TO AROUND 30 F AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST OF SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE HI WILL SLIDE OFF THE CST LATE SAT INTO SUN. SSW WINDS WILL
PICK UP TO NEAR 10 MPH IN MOST AREAS LATE SAT MORNG THRU THE AFTN
HELPING TO WARM TEMPS INTO THE UPR 40S TO LWR 50S UNDER A SUNNY OR
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND THICKEN FM
THE SW LATE SAT NGT INTO MIDDAY SUN...AS GULF CST MOISTURE AND AN
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFTS NWRD INTO THE SE UNITED STATES.
CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY SAT NGT WITH LOWS
RANGING THRU THE 30S.

THE WARM FRONT WITH STRONG VERTICAL MOTION AND ASSOCIATED
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE WILL LIFT NNE AND ACRS THE REGION SUN AFTN
INTO SUN NGT. HAVE POPS FOR RAIN INCREASING TO 80% EVERYWHERE
BETWEEN 00Z-06Z MON...THEN DIMINISH TO 70% NE TO 40% SW BETWEEN
06Z-12Z MON. HIGHS ON SUN RANGING FM THE MID 50S INTO THE LWR 60S.
LOWS SUN NGT RANGING THRU THE 50S. THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL
NNE OF THE REGION AT 12Z MON...WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING TWD/INTO
OUR EXTRM WRN CNTIES BY 00Z TUE. AFTER LWR CLOUDS AND FOG MON
MORNG...SW WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL HELP TEMPS CLIMB
INTO THE LWR TO MID 70S UNDER A PARTLY SUNNY SKY. FOR NOW...JUST
HAVE A SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS EVERYWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST BY 12Z TUE. BNDRY THEN
STALLS OVR THE GULF STREAM TUE & WED IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF
S/W`S PROGGED TO DVLP THEN MOVE NE ALONG IT. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRS
(OF PACIFIC ORIGIN) OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION BUILDS S&E THRU
THE MID WEEK PRD. UPR LVL LOW AND TRAILING CDFRNT PROGGED TO DIVE
SE FROM THE GT LAKES THU WITH HIGH PRS BUILDING INTO THE ARA FRI.

GRIDS WILL INDICATE SLGHT CHC SHWRS WITH FROPA MONDAY NIGHT. COOLER
AS CAA SET IN BEHIND THE FRNT. LOWS M-U40S NWRN HALF 50-55 SERN
HALF. TUE THRU WED FCST DEPENDS ON HOW FAR N&W MSTR GETS FROM THE
DVLPNG LOW OFF THE SERN COAST. GFS HAS A TRACK A BIT FRTHR EAST
KEEPING THE PCPN CONFINED TO SERN CSTL AREAS BY LATE TUE...AND GNRLY
E OF I95 WED. ECMWF SLOWER WITH A DRY TUE...PCPN MOVG ACROSS SERN
CSTL AREAS TUE NIGHT THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA WED BEFORE
PULLING OUT TO SEAS WED NIGHT.

TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF WITH THE COASTAL LOW TUE & WED...BUT THNK
IT IS OVERDONE WRT THE DEEPENING OF THE LOW OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST
TURKEY DAY. WILL INDICATE 20-30 POP ACROSS SERN CSTL AREAS TUE. DRY
ELSEWHERE. HIGHS M50S-L60S. A GENERAL RAIN OVRSPRDS THE FA SE-NW
TUES NIGHT AND WED...THEN ENDS WED EVE AS THE LOW PULLS FRTHR
OFFSHORE. PCPN ALL LIQUID WITH THIS EVENT. LOWS TUE NIGHT M30S-M40S.
HIGHS WED M40S-L50S. PCPN ENDS WED EVE BEFORE THE COLD AIR ARRIVES.
LOWS AFTER THE RAIN ENDS FALL INTO THE U20S-L30S W OF THE
BAY...M-U30S SERN CSTL AREAS.

CLIPPER TYPE S/W DIVES SE THU. ENUF MSTR SEEN WITH THIS FTR FOR AT
LEAST SLGHT CHC DIURNAL SHWRS (PSBLY MIXED WITH IP???) THANKSGIVING
DAY. HIGHS 45-50. DRYING OUT THURS NIGHT AND FRI. LOWS U20S-M30S
XCPT 35-40 SERN CSTL AREAS. HIGHS FRI M-U40S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS WITH MOSTLY CLR SKY AND LIGHT
WIND. LOW DEWPTS MEAN NO FOG IS EXPECTED. WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT
OUT OF THE N-E AND WILL GRADUALLY SHFT TO SW BY SAT AFTN. HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION INTO SAT...MOVING
WELL OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY.

A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN AND
MVFR/IFR CONDS LATE SUN INTO MON MRNG.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL MAINTAIN SCA`S OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS (MAINLY FOR
SEAS)...WITH HEADLINES NOW CANCELLED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
MARINE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SAT...THEN MOVES
WELL OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. MODELS NOW SLOWER WITH THE APPRCH OF THE
NEXT SYSTM FROM THE SW. THUS...NXT CHC FOR SCA HEADLINES COMES SUN
NIGHT AND MON AS PRS GRDNT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF APPRCHG CDFRNT.

TIDE ANOMALIES CONTG TO AVG ARND 1/2 FOOT BLO NORMAL INTO SUN.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...LKB/TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...DAP/JEF
MARINE...MPR







000
FXUS61 KRNK 220241
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
941 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TONIGHT
BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A COMPLEX
STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY...MOVING THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY
BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM BEFORE A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY...RETURNING TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS 940 PM EST FRIDAY...

NO ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO TONIGHTS FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT UNDER THE ARCTIC HIGH WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS. WHILE IN THE WEST ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...850 MB WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING TO AROUND PLUS 5C BY 12Z SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
OFF TO OUR EAST ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM EST FRIDAY...

RIDGING BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT EXTENDING INLAND ACROSS THE SE STATES
WILL WEAKEN SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COMPLEX/LARGE STORM SYSTEM THAT
WILL TAKE SHAPE FROM TX EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES. NEW MODELS
CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF DEEPER MOISTURE WITH
THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT AS PIECES OF CONVECTION FROM THE UPPER LOW
WELL TO THE SW AND OVER THE SE WITH THE COASTAL FRONT TEND TO INHIBIT
TRANSPORT. HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE PERHAPS ENOUGH
ISENTROPIC LIFT/UPSLOPE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO POSSIBLY DEVELOP SOME
LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE NW N CAROLINA MOUNTAINS SO KEPT A VERY LOW
POP LATE ALTHOUGH APPEARS LITTLE MORE THAN DRIZZLE AT THIS POINT.
DO EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE GIVEN THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION SETUP SO
REMOVED ALL FROZEN PRECIP MENTION AT THE ONSET DESPITE SOME COLD
AIR LIKELY TRAPPED IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS. ELSW INCREASING CLOUDS
BUT STILL DRY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY 30S BEFORE EDGING UP
LATE.

SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS...GUIDANCE QUICKLY EJECTS THE PARENT LOW WITH THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WELL TO THE WEST SUNDAY...WITH A
JET DRIVEN BAND OF DEEPER LIFT SWINGING TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
SW ESPCLY DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS MOST SPOTS BY
MIDNIGHT. THIS AHEAD OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT THAT WILL GET SLOWED
UP BY PRECIP INTO A VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...WHICH SHOULD LIKELY
DELAY THE ONSET FARTHER NORTH...BUT ALSO CREATE A WEAK INSITU
WEDGE LATER IN THE DAY. HOWEVER TIMING REMAINS IFFY GIVEN
CONSENSUS OF GOING EVEN SLOWER AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPLITTING OF
THE HEAVIER RAIN PER STRONG DYNAMICS WELL TO THE NW AND CONVECTION
ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. FOR NOW
APPEARS EVEN WITH THAT SCENARIO THAT THE DEEP SOUTH/SE FLOW WILL
BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME TO SOME DEGREE SO CONTINUING THE TREND OF
LIKELY/CAT POPS SLIDING NE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...JUST A COUPLE HOURS
SLOWER SIMILAR TO THE GFS. BRIEF PERIOD OF 50 KNOT WINDS AT 85H
CROSSING THE MTN EMPIRE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON REMAINS A CONCERN
FOR AT LEAST ADVISORY WINDS ON THE RIDGES SO KEEPING MENTION IN
THE HWO FOR A FEW COUNTIES OUT WEST. KEPT HIGHS A BIT BELOW THE
MAV MOS AS THE COOL MET MOS VALUES LOOK TOO COOL GIVEN THE SLOWER
NATURE TO PRECIP ARRIVAL INTO THE DRY AIR...AND THE DEGREE OF
WARMING ABOVE.

BEST UPWARD MOTION AS SEEN VIA MODEL DIFFLUENCE FIELDS LIKELY TO OCCUR
SUNDAY EVENING AS THE AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE ACCELERATES A BIT WITH A
BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN POSSIBLY SWEEPING ACROSS ESPCLY
SOUTHERN/EASTERN SECTIONS. HOWEVER DESPITE STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND
FORECAST HIGH HELICITY...MOST OF THIS TO STAY ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION...AND GIVEN LACK OF MUCH INSTABILITY WILL TAKE A FASTER
SURFACE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER THE SE TO COINCIDE WITH THE
BETTER SHEAR WHICH DOESNT LOOK TO HAPPEN AT THIS POINT. OTRW
RUNNING WITH OVERALL CAT POPS DURING THE EVENING...THEN QUICKLY
CUTTING BACK TO CHANCE OR LESS OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER JET RIDES A
VERY PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT ALOFT INTO THE AREA LATE. LOW TEMPS
SHOULD REMAIN MILD AND COULD RISE SOME LATE AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE
SW FROM ABOVE.

ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILING THE PARENT LOW TO THE NORTH WILL SLIDE
TOWARD THE REGION A BIT FASTER FROM THE WEST MONDAY...WITH THE LAGGING
COLD ADVECTION SPILLING IN MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN VERY SHALLOW BUT MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS FROM
ZOOMING MONDAY AFTERNOON ESPCLY EAST...AND OVER THE FAR WEST WHERE
MORE OF A SHOWER THREAT COULD OCCUR. LATEST MOS REMAINS VERY WARM
PER SUCH MILD 85H TEMPS THAT LOOK TO PUNCH TO THE SURFACE ON GOOD
MIXING BEFORE THINGS COOL ALOFT LATER ON. SINCE TREND IN THIS
SETUP IS USUALLY FOR THE FRONT TO BE SLOWER CROSSING THE RIDGES
AND IN LINE WITH THE 12Z ECMWF...STAYED ON THE WARM SIDE WITH 60S
WEST AND SOME LOW 70S EAST. POPS IFFY BUT INCLUDED A 20/30 POPS
MOST SPOTS WITH SKIES BECOMING PC MONDAY...THEN MOSTLY ISOLATED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WESTERN SLOPES MONDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR OOZES
IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EST FRIDAY...

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO PROGRESS FROM
NEAR JAMES BAY NORTHEAST TOWARDS GREENLAND. THE SYSTEMS TRAILING
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TO NEAR THE EAST COAT OF
THE U.S.  MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERS VARIOUS SOLUTIONS REGARDING A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS PROGGED TO HEAD NORTH ALONG THIS
FRONT...FROM THE GULF COAST STATES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY
MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. ENOUGH SOLUTIONS OFFER THE POTENTIAL THAT THIS WAVE
WILL HELP BUCKLE THE FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WESTWARD...SO
THAT PRECIPITATION RETURNS TO AT LEAST THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
REGION...IF NOT ALSO CENTRAL PORTIONS. OUR LATEST FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY WILL REFLECT THIS POTENTIAL...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
ENOUGH COLDER AIR WILL HAVE MADE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION FOR SOME
TYPE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION. GIVEN THE MODEL VARIATIONS...FOR
SIMPLICITY SAKE...WILL ONLY OFFER A RAIN VERSUS SNOW FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THIS COASTAL WAVE WILL
BE NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND NO LONGER BE A FACTOR IN OUR
FORECAST.

WHAT WILL BECOME A FACTOR IS YET ANOTHER DEEPENING UPPER LOW
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GUIDANCE IS OFFERING THIS ONE TO TAKE A
FARTHER SOUTH TRACK THAN ITS PREDECESSOR...DEEPEN MORE...AND FUNNEL
A STRONGER SURGE OF COLDER AIR INTO OUR REGION. AFTER AN INITIAL
ROUND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION ON
THURSDAY...ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE PREFERRED AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL TREND LOWER EACH DAY...WITH THE
BIGGEST DROP BEING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE
THE ONLY DAY ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE REST OF THE PERIOD BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 650 PM EST FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE OUR REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS THE
HIGH PASSES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE HIGH CENTER WILL
PUSH OFF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHICH WILL BRING
SURFACE WINDS AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN AND
MVFR OR LOWER CIGS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
ALSO...STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS LATER ON SUNDAY MAY LEAD TO
LLWS...ESPECIALLY THE BLF AREA. A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR DURING
MONDAY OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A DRY SLOT DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE
EXITING FRONT FROM SUNDAY AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK...EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS
EASTERN WV/FAR SW VA...BUT MOSTLY VFR ELSEWHERE WITH A COLDER NW
FLOW.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 215 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WILL BE OUT
OF SERVICE UNTIL PARTS ARRIVE TO REPLACE THE SENSOR. UNTIL THEN
THE VISIBILITY WILL ONLY BE REPORTED WHEN THE CONTROL TOWER IS
STAFFED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/RAB
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS/KK
EQUIPMENT...RAB




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220215
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
915 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM SOUTHEAST OHIO EASTWARD TO RIGHT
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE
HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AND ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SFC HI PRES WILL BLD FM SE OH EWRD TO RIGHT OVR THE REGION TNGT
INTO SAT MORNG. CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH LOWS
RANGING FM THE UPR TEENS TO THE MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE HI WILL SLIDE OFF THE CST LATE SAT INTO SUN. SSW WINDS WILL
PICK UP TO NEAR 10 MPH IN MOST AREAS LATE SAT MORNG THRU THE AFTN
HELPING TO WARM TEMPS INTO THE UPR 40S TO LWR 50S UNDER A SUNNY OR
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND THICKEN FM
THE SW LATE SAT NGT INTO MIDDAY SUN...AS GULF CST MOISTURE AND AN
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFTS NWRD INTO THE SE UNITED STATES.
CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY SAT NGT WITH LOWS
RANGING THRU THE 30S.

THE WARM FRONT WITH STRONG VERTICAL MOTION AND ASSOCIATED
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE WILL LIFT NNE AND ACRS THE REGION SUN AFTN
INTO SUN NGT. HAVE POPS FOR RAIN INCREASING TO 80% EVERYWHERE
BETWEEN 00Z-06Z MON...THEN DIMINISH TO 70% NE TO 40% SW BETWEEN
06Z-12Z MON. HIGHS ON SUN RANGING FM THE MID 50S INTO THE LWR 60S.
LOWS SUN NGT RANGING THRU THE 50S. THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL
NNE OF THE REGION AT 12Z MON...WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING TWD/INTO
OUR EXTRM WRN CNTIES BY 00Z TUE. AFTER LWR CLOUDS AND FOG MON
MORNG...SW WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL HELP TEMPS CLIMB
INTO THE LWR TO MID 70S UNDER A PARTLY SUNNY SKY. FOR NOW...JUST
HAVE A SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS EVERYWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST BY 12Z TUE. BNDRY THEN
STALLS OVR THE GULF STREAM TUE & WED IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF
S/W`S PROGGED TO DVLP THEN MOVE NE ALONG IT. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRS
(OF PACIFIC ORIGIN) OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION BUILDS S&E THRU
THE MID WEEK PRD. UPR LVL LOW AND TRAILING CDFRNT PROGGED TO DIVE
SE FROM THE GT LAKES THU WITH HIGH PRS BUILDING INTO THE ARA FRI.

GRIDS WILL INDICATE SLGHT CHC SHWRS WITH FROPA MONDAY NIGHT. COOLER
AS CAA SET IN BEHIND THE FRNT. LOWS M-U40S NWRN HALF 50-55 SERN
HALF. TUE THRU WED FCST DEPENDS ON HOW FAR N&W MSTR GETS FROM THE
DVLPNG LOW OFF THE SERN COAST. GFS HAS A TRACK A BIT FRTHR EAST
KEEPING THE PCPN CONFINED TO SERN CSTL AREAS BY LATE TUE...AND GNRLY
E OF I95 WED. ECMWF SLOWER WITH A DRY TUE...PCPN MOVG ACROSS SERN
CSTL AREAS TUE NIGHT THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA WED BEFORE
PULLING OUT TO SEAS WED NIGHT.

TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF WITH THE COASTAL LOW TUE & WED...BUT THNK
IT IS OVERDONE WRT THE DEEPENING OF THE LOW OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST
TURKEY DAY. WILL INDICATE 20-30 POP ACROSS SERN CSTL AREAS TUE. DRY
ELSEWHERE. HIGHS M50S-L60S. A GENERAL RAIN OVRSPRDS THE FA SE-NW
TUES NIGHT AND WED...THEN ENDS WED EVE AS THE LOW PULLS FRTHR
OFFSHORE. PCPN ALL LIQUID WITH THIS EVENT. LOWS TUE NIGHT M30S-M40S.
HIGHS WED M40S-L50S. PCPN ENDS WED EVE BEFORE THE COLD AIR ARRIVES.
LOWS AFTER THE RAIN ENDS FALL INTO THE U20S-L30S W OF THE
BAY...M-U30S SERN CSTL AREAS.

CLIPPER TYPE S/W DIVES SE THU. ENUF MSTR SEEN WITH THIS FTR FOR AT
LEAST SLGHT CHC DIURNAL SHWRS (PSBLY MIXED WITH IP???) THANKSGIVING
DAY. HIGHS 45-50. DRYING OUT THURS NIGHT AND FRI. LOWS U20S-M30S
XCPT 35-40 SERN CSTL AREAS. HIGHS FRI M-U40S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS WITH MOSTLY CLR SKY AND LIGHT
WIND. LOW DEWPTS MEAN NO FOG IS EXPECTED. WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT
OUT OF THE N-E AND WILL GRADUALLY SHFT TO SW BY SAT AFTN. HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION INTO SAT...MOVING
WELL OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY.

A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN AND
MVFR/IFR CONDS LATE SUN INTO MON MRNG.

&&

.MARINE...
DECENT MIXING GOING ON ATTM TO KEEP THE CRNT SCA HEADLINES GOING FOR
ANTHR FEW HRS. WNDS QUICKLY DMNSH AFTR 00Z AND THUS THE SCA SHOULD
BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE THEN. NE WINDS ACROSS SERN CSTL WTRS XPCTD TO
KEEP SEAS ARND 5 FT THRU THE EVENING HRS.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SAT...THEN MOVES
WELL OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. MODELS NOW SLOWER WITH THE APPRCH OF THE
NEXT SYSTM FROM THE SW. THUS...NXT CHC FOR SCA HEADLINES COMES SUN
NIGHT AND MON AS PRS GRDNT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF APPRCHG CDFRNT.

TIDE ANOMALIES CONTG TO AVG ARND 1/2 FOOT BLO NORMAL INTO SUN.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...DAP/JEF
MARINE...MPR







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220215
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
915 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM SOUTHEAST OHIO EASTWARD TO RIGHT
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE
HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AND ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SFC HI PRES WILL BLD FM SE OH EWRD TO RIGHT OVR THE REGION TNGT
INTO SAT MORNG. CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH LOWS
RANGING FM THE UPR TEENS TO THE MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE HI WILL SLIDE OFF THE CST LATE SAT INTO SUN. SSW WINDS WILL
PICK UP TO NEAR 10 MPH IN MOST AREAS LATE SAT MORNG THRU THE AFTN
HELPING TO WARM TEMPS INTO THE UPR 40S TO LWR 50S UNDER A SUNNY OR
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND THICKEN FM
THE SW LATE SAT NGT INTO MIDDAY SUN...AS GULF CST MOISTURE AND AN
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFTS NWRD INTO THE SE UNITED STATES.
CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY SAT NGT WITH LOWS
RANGING THRU THE 30S.

THE WARM FRONT WITH STRONG VERTICAL MOTION AND ASSOCIATED
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE WILL LIFT NNE AND ACRS THE REGION SUN AFTN
INTO SUN NGT. HAVE POPS FOR RAIN INCREASING TO 80% EVERYWHERE
BETWEEN 00Z-06Z MON...THEN DIMINISH TO 70% NE TO 40% SW BETWEEN
06Z-12Z MON. HIGHS ON SUN RANGING FM THE MID 50S INTO THE LWR 60S.
LOWS SUN NGT RANGING THRU THE 50S. THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL
NNE OF THE REGION AT 12Z MON...WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING TWD/INTO
OUR EXTRM WRN CNTIES BY 00Z TUE. AFTER LWR CLOUDS AND FOG MON
MORNG...SW WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL HELP TEMPS CLIMB
INTO THE LWR TO MID 70S UNDER A PARTLY SUNNY SKY. FOR NOW...JUST
HAVE A SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS EVERYWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST BY 12Z TUE. BNDRY THEN
STALLS OVR THE GULF STREAM TUE & WED IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF
S/W`S PROGGED TO DVLP THEN MOVE NE ALONG IT. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRS
(OF PACIFIC ORIGIN) OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION BUILDS S&E THRU
THE MID WEEK PRD. UPR LVL LOW AND TRAILING CDFRNT PROGGED TO DIVE
SE FROM THE GT LAKES THU WITH HIGH PRS BUILDING INTO THE ARA FRI.

GRIDS WILL INDICATE SLGHT CHC SHWRS WITH FROPA MONDAY NIGHT. COOLER
AS CAA SET IN BEHIND THE FRNT. LOWS M-U40S NWRN HALF 50-55 SERN
HALF. TUE THRU WED FCST DEPENDS ON HOW FAR N&W MSTR GETS FROM THE
DVLPNG LOW OFF THE SERN COAST. GFS HAS A TRACK A BIT FRTHR EAST
KEEPING THE PCPN CONFINED TO SERN CSTL AREAS BY LATE TUE...AND GNRLY
E OF I95 WED. ECMWF SLOWER WITH A DRY TUE...PCPN MOVG ACROSS SERN
CSTL AREAS TUE NIGHT THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA WED BEFORE
PULLING OUT TO SEAS WED NIGHT.

TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF WITH THE COASTAL LOW TUE & WED...BUT THNK
IT IS OVERDONE WRT THE DEEPENING OF THE LOW OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST
TURKEY DAY. WILL INDICATE 20-30 POP ACROSS SERN CSTL AREAS TUE. DRY
ELSEWHERE. HIGHS M50S-L60S. A GENERAL RAIN OVRSPRDS THE FA SE-NW
TUES NIGHT AND WED...THEN ENDS WED EVE AS THE LOW PULLS FRTHR
OFFSHORE. PCPN ALL LIQUID WITH THIS EVENT. LOWS TUE NIGHT M30S-M40S.
HIGHS WED M40S-L50S. PCPN ENDS WED EVE BEFORE THE COLD AIR ARRIVES.
LOWS AFTER THE RAIN ENDS FALL INTO THE U20S-L30S W OF THE
BAY...M-U30S SERN CSTL AREAS.

CLIPPER TYPE S/W DIVES SE THU. ENUF MSTR SEEN WITH THIS FTR FOR AT
LEAST SLGHT CHC DIURNAL SHWRS (PSBLY MIXED WITH IP???) THANKSGIVING
DAY. HIGHS 45-50. DRYING OUT THURS NIGHT AND FRI. LOWS U20S-M30S
XCPT 35-40 SERN CSTL AREAS. HIGHS FRI M-U40S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS WITH MOSTLY CLR SKY AND LIGHT
WIND. LOW DEWPTS MEAN NO FOG IS EXPECTED. WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT
OUT OF THE N-E AND WILL GRADUALLY SHFT TO SW BY SAT AFTN. HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION INTO SAT...MOVING
WELL OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY.

A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN AND
MVFR/IFR CONDS LATE SUN INTO MON MRNG.

&&

.MARINE...
DECENT MIXING GOING ON ATTM TO KEEP THE CRNT SCA HEADLINES GOING FOR
ANTHR FEW HRS. WNDS QUICKLY DMNSH AFTR 00Z AND THUS THE SCA SHOULD
BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE THEN. NE WINDS ACROSS SERN CSTL WTRS XPCTD TO
KEEP SEAS ARND 5 FT THRU THE EVENING HRS.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SAT...THEN MOVES
WELL OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. MODELS NOW SLOWER WITH THE APPRCH OF THE
NEXT SYSTM FROM THE SW. THUS...NXT CHC FOR SCA HEADLINES COMES SUN
NIGHT AND MON AS PRS GRDNT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF APPRCHG CDFRNT.

TIDE ANOMALIES CONTG TO AVG ARND 1/2 FOOT BLO NORMAL INTO SUN.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...DAP/JEF
MARINE...MPR






000
FXUS61 KLWX 220151
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
851 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT...AND THEN SHIFT
OFFSHORE SATURDAY. A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT STALLS
JUST OFFSHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE AS THE AREA
REMAINS POSITIONED BETWEEN AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH RESIDES OVER THE CWA THIS EVENING...AND
WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST AND WIND UP ALONG THE COAST BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY.

CLEAR SKIES WERE OVERHEAD...AND WILL HOLD THROUGH THE NIGHT.
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING ALREADY UNDERWAY...PAVING THE WAY FOR A
COLD NIGHT. USED BC ADJMET/SREFS TO RE-POPULATE MINIMA...WHICH
RESULTED IN A 1 TO 2 DEG F REDUCTION FOR SOME LOCATIONS COMPARED
TO PREV FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE HIGH WL CONTINUE TO BE IN CONTROL OF AREA WX SAT AND SAT
NGT. THE HIGH WL BE MIGRATING OFFSHORE...HENCE WINDS WL TURNING TO
THE S. THIS WL ALLOW FOR A WARMER DAY SAT THAN TDA...AND ALSO
WARMER SAT NGT THAN THE UPCOMING NGT. HIGHS 45-50 MOST OF THE
AREA...LOWS SAT NGT CLOSER TO FRZG.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER FLOW PATTERN SPLIT ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH A NORTHERN WAVE OVER
THE DAKOTAS AND SOUTHERN WAVE OVER TEXAS. AHEAD OF THESE
FEATURES...UPPER FLOW WILL BE ZONAL OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
START THE DAY...BUT MAINLY OF THE MID/HIGH VARIETY. DESPITE WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT...MIXING WILL BE POOR AND HIGHS WILL BE HELD IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S. HAVE SLOWED RAIN CHANCES A BIT MORE FOR THE
AFTERNOON...BUT PERHAPS NOT ENOUGH. DEW POINTS WILL STILL BE RATHER
LOW...AND STRONG FORCING DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL EVENING. THE SOUTHERN
WAVE WILL TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TO BEGIN PHASING WITH THE
NORTHERN WAVE...WITH A LLJ AND FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. AN AREA OF MODERATE RAIN WILL PUSH NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EVENING NIGHT...WITH GOOD AGREEMENT OF
THIS OCCURRING DURING THE 00-09Z TIME PERIOD. WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY
SURFACE WIND DEVELOPING...COULD SEE SOME RAIN TOTALS OVER A HALF
INCH FOCUSED ON THE EAST FACING SLOPES. WITH THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH OVERNIGHT...EXPECT TO SEE TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS RISING NONDIURNALLY. RAIN WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. JET MAX WILL PASS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTH OF THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SHORTWAVE WILL
REACH THE ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL REACH
THE COAST BY EARLY FRIDAY.

SURFACE BOUNDARY SETTING UP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE EARLY MONDAY. DRY SLOT TAKING OVER MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. DEVELOPING LOW OFF SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST TRANSPORTING MOISTURE INTO MID ATLANTIC
REGION AT MID WEEK.

ECMWF TREND IS SIMILAR TO HPC GUIDANCE. FOLLOWING HPC GUIDANCE WITH
SOME VERY MINOR TWEAKS IN POP GRID.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDS XPCTD TNGT THRU SAT NGT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD
TONIGHT...THEN OFFSHORE FOR SAT FOR INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
DURING THE DAYTIME.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FROM SUNDAY EVENING UNTIL EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH IFR POSSIBLE DURING THE PERIOD OF HEAVIER RAIN. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT LLWS
ISSUES MAY BE MITIGATED BY LACK OF A NEAR-SURFACE INVERSION AND SOME
MIXING OF THE WINDS.

SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 KT POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. THE PROBABILITY
OF AVIATION HAZARDS IS LOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH THE SETTING OF THE SUN AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED AND SCA WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE FOR SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE DURING
THE EVENING AND CHANNELLING WILL ENHANCE SPEEDS UP THE BAY BUT
CURRENT FORECAST IS TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA.

SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SUNDAY MAY REACH MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT POSSIBLE. STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT
CONTINUE MONDAY...BECOMING WESTERLY MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
BPP/WOODY!/ADS/CEM







000
FXUS61 KLWX 220151
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
851 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT...AND THEN SHIFT
OFFSHORE SATURDAY. A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT STALLS
JUST OFFSHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE AS THE AREA
REMAINS POSITIONED BETWEEN AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH RESIDES OVER THE CWA THIS EVENING...AND
WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST AND WIND UP ALONG THE COAST BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY.

CLEAR SKIES WERE OVERHEAD...AND WILL HOLD THROUGH THE NIGHT.
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING ALREADY UNDERWAY...PAVING THE WAY FOR A
COLD NIGHT. USED BC ADJMET/SREFS TO RE-POPULATE MINIMA...WHICH
RESULTED IN A 1 TO 2 DEG F REDUCTION FOR SOME LOCATIONS COMPARED
TO PREV FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE HIGH WL CONTINUE TO BE IN CONTROL OF AREA WX SAT AND SAT
NGT. THE HIGH WL BE MIGRATING OFFSHORE...HENCE WINDS WL TURNING TO
THE S. THIS WL ALLOW FOR A WARMER DAY SAT THAN TDA...AND ALSO
WARMER SAT NGT THAN THE UPCOMING NGT. HIGHS 45-50 MOST OF THE
AREA...LOWS SAT NGT CLOSER TO FRZG.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER FLOW PATTERN SPLIT ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH A NORTHERN WAVE OVER
THE DAKOTAS AND SOUTHERN WAVE OVER TEXAS. AHEAD OF THESE
FEATURES...UPPER FLOW WILL BE ZONAL OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
START THE DAY...BUT MAINLY OF THE MID/HIGH VARIETY. DESPITE WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT...MIXING WILL BE POOR AND HIGHS WILL BE HELD IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S. HAVE SLOWED RAIN CHANCES A BIT MORE FOR THE
AFTERNOON...BUT PERHAPS NOT ENOUGH. DEW POINTS WILL STILL BE RATHER
LOW...AND STRONG FORCING DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL EVENING. THE SOUTHERN
WAVE WILL TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TO BEGIN PHASING WITH THE
NORTHERN WAVE...WITH A LLJ AND FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. AN AREA OF MODERATE RAIN WILL PUSH NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EVENING NIGHT...WITH GOOD AGREEMENT OF
THIS OCCURRING DURING THE 00-09Z TIME PERIOD. WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY
SURFACE WIND DEVELOPING...COULD SEE SOME RAIN TOTALS OVER A HALF
INCH FOCUSED ON THE EAST FACING SLOPES. WITH THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH OVERNIGHT...EXPECT TO SEE TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS RISING NONDIURNALLY. RAIN WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. JET MAX WILL PASS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTH OF THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SHORTWAVE WILL
REACH THE ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL REACH
THE COAST BY EARLY FRIDAY.

SURFACE BOUNDARY SETTING UP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE EARLY MONDAY. DRY SLOT TAKING OVER MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. DEVELOPING LOW OFF SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST TRANSPORTING MOISTURE INTO MID ATLANTIC
REGION AT MID WEEK.

ECMWF TREND IS SIMILAR TO HPC GUIDANCE. FOLLOWING HPC GUIDANCE WITH
SOME VERY MINOR TWEAKS IN POP GRID.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDS XPCTD TNGT THRU SAT NGT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD
TONIGHT...THEN OFFSHORE FOR SAT FOR INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
DURING THE DAYTIME.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FROM SUNDAY EVENING UNTIL EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH IFR POSSIBLE DURING THE PERIOD OF HEAVIER RAIN. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT LLWS
ISSUES MAY BE MITIGATED BY LACK OF A NEAR-SURFACE INVERSION AND SOME
MIXING OF THE WINDS.

SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 KT POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. THE PROBABILITY
OF AVIATION HAZARDS IS LOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH THE SETTING OF THE SUN AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED AND SCA WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE FOR SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE DURING
THE EVENING AND CHANNELLING WILL ENHANCE SPEEDS UP THE BAY BUT
CURRENT FORECAST IS TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA.

SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SUNDAY MAY REACH MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT POSSIBLE. STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT
CONTINUE MONDAY...BECOMING WESTERLY MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
BPP/WOODY!/ADS/CEM







000
FXUS61 KLWX 220151
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
851 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT...AND THEN SHIFT
OFFSHORE SATURDAY. A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT STALLS
JUST OFFSHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE AS THE AREA
REMAINS POSITIONED BETWEEN AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH RESIDES OVER THE CWA THIS EVENING...AND
WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST AND WIND UP ALONG THE COAST BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY.

CLEAR SKIES WERE OVERHEAD...AND WILL HOLD THROUGH THE NIGHT.
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING ALREADY UNDERWAY...PAVING THE WAY FOR A
COLD NIGHT. USED BC ADJMET/SREFS TO RE-POPULATE MINIMA...WHICH
RESULTED IN A 1 TO 2 DEG F REDUCTION FOR SOME LOCATIONS COMPARED
TO PREV FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE HIGH WL CONTINUE TO BE IN CONTROL OF AREA WX SAT AND SAT
NGT. THE HIGH WL BE MIGRATING OFFSHORE...HENCE WINDS WL TURNING TO
THE S. THIS WL ALLOW FOR A WARMER DAY SAT THAN TDA...AND ALSO
WARMER SAT NGT THAN THE UPCOMING NGT. HIGHS 45-50 MOST OF THE
AREA...LOWS SAT NGT CLOSER TO FRZG.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER FLOW PATTERN SPLIT ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH A NORTHERN WAVE OVER
THE DAKOTAS AND SOUTHERN WAVE OVER TEXAS. AHEAD OF THESE
FEATURES...UPPER FLOW WILL BE ZONAL OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
START THE DAY...BUT MAINLY OF THE MID/HIGH VARIETY. DESPITE WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT...MIXING WILL BE POOR AND HIGHS WILL BE HELD IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S. HAVE SLOWED RAIN CHANCES A BIT MORE FOR THE
AFTERNOON...BUT PERHAPS NOT ENOUGH. DEW POINTS WILL STILL BE RATHER
LOW...AND STRONG FORCING DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL EVENING. THE SOUTHERN
WAVE WILL TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TO BEGIN PHASING WITH THE
NORTHERN WAVE...WITH A LLJ AND FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. AN AREA OF MODERATE RAIN WILL PUSH NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EVENING NIGHT...WITH GOOD AGREEMENT OF
THIS OCCURRING DURING THE 00-09Z TIME PERIOD. WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY
SURFACE WIND DEVELOPING...COULD SEE SOME RAIN TOTALS OVER A HALF
INCH FOCUSED ON THE EAST FACING SLOPES. WITH THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH OVERNIGHT...EXPECT TO SEE TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS RISING NONDIURNALLY. RAIN WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. JET MAX WILL PASS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTH OF THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SHORTWAVE WILL
REACH THE ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL REACH
THE COAST BY EARLY FRIDAY.

SURFACE BOUNDARY SETTING UP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE EARLY MONDAY. DRY SLOT TAKING OVER MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. DEVELOPING LOW OFF SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST TRANSPORTING MOISTURE INTO MID ATLANTIC
REGION AT MID WEEK.

ECMWF TREND IS SIMILAR TO HPC GUIDANCE. FOLLOWING HPC GUIDANCE WITH
SOME VERY MINOR TWEAKS IN POP GRID.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDS XPCTD TNGT THRU SAT NGT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD
TONIGHT...THEN OFFSHORE FOR SAT FOR INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
DURING THE DAYTIME.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FROM SUNDAY EVENING UNTIL EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH IFR POSSIBLE DURING THE PERIOD OF HEAVIER RAIN. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT LLWS
ISSUES MAY BE MITIGATED BY LACK OF A NEAR-SURFACE INVERSION AND SOME
MIXING OF THE WINDS.

SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 KT POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. THE PROBABILITY
OF AVIATION HAZARDS IS LOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH THE SETTING OF THE SUN AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED AND SCA WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE FOR SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE DURING
THE EVENING AND CHANNELLING WILL ENHANCE SPEEDS UP THE BAY BUT
CURRENT FORECAST IS TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA.

SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SUNDAY MAY REACH MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT POSSIBLE. STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT
CONTINUE MONDAY...BECOMING WESTERLY MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
BPP/WOODY!/ADS/CEM







000
FXUS61 KLWX 220151
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
851 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT...AND THEN SHIFT
OFFSHORE SATURDAY. A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT STALLS
JUST OFFSHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE AS THE AREA
REMAINS POSITIONED BETWEEN AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH RESIDES OVER THE CWA THIS EVENING...AND
WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST AND WIND UP ALONG THE COAST BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY.

CLEAR SKIES WERE OVERHEAD...AND WILL HOLD THROUGH THE NIGHT.
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING ALREADY UNDERWAY...PAVING THE WAY FOR A
COLD NIGHT. USED BC ADJMET/SREFS TO RE-POPULATE MINIMA...WHICH
RESULTED IN A 1 TO 2 DEG F REDUCTION FOR SOME LOCATIONS COMPARED
TO PREV FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE HIGH WL CONTINUE TO BE IN CONTROL OF AREA WX SAT AND SAT
NGT. THE HIGH WL BE MIGRATING OFFSHORE...HENCE WINDS WL TURNING TO
THE S. THIS WL ALLOW FOR A WARMER DAY SAT THAN TDA...AND ALSO
WARMER SAT NGT THAN THE UPCOMING NGT. HIGHS 45-50 MOST OF THE
AREA...LOWS SAT NGT CLOSER TO FRZG.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER FLOW PATTERN SPLIT ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH A NORTHERN WAVE OVER
THE DAKOTAS AND SOUTHERN WAVE OVER TEXAS. AHEAD OF THESE
FEATURES...UPPER FLOW WILL BE ZONAL OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
START THE DAY...BUT MAINLY OF THE MID/HIGH VARIETY. DESPITE WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT...MIXING WILL BE POOR AND HIGHS WILL BE HELD IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S. HAVE SLOWED RAIN CHANCES A BIT MORE FOR THE
AFTERNOON...BUT PERHAPS NOT ENOUGH. DEW POINTS WILL STILL BE RATHER
LOW...AND STRONG FORCING DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL EVENING. THE SOUTHERN
WAVE WILL TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TO BEGIN PHASING WITH THE
NORTHERN WAVE...WITH A LLJ AND FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. AN AREA OF MODERATE RAIN WILL PUSH NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EVENING NIGHT...WITH GOOD AGREEMENT OF
THIS OCCURRING DURING THE 00-09Z TIME PERIOD. WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY
SURFACE WIND DEVELOPING...COULD SEE SOME RAIN TOTALS OVER A HALF
INCH FOCUSED ON THE EAST FACING SLOPES. WITH THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH OVERNIGHT...EXPECT TO SEE TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS RISING NONDIURNALLY. RAIN WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. JET MAX WILL PASS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTH OF THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SHORTWAVE WILL
REACH THE ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL REACH
THE COAST BY EARLY FRIDAY.

SURFACE BOUNDARY SETTING UP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE EARLY MONDAY. DRY SLOT TAKING OVER MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. DEVELOPING LOW OFF SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST TRANSPORTING MOISTURE INTO MID ATLANTIC
REGION AT MID WEEK.

ECMWF TREND IS SIMILAR TO HPC GUIDANCE. FOLLOWING HPC GUIDANCE WITH
SOME VERY MINOR TWEAKS IN POP GRID.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDS XPCTD TNGT THRU SAT NGT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD
TONIGHT...THEN OFFSHORE FOR SAT FOR INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
DURING THE DAYTIME.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FROM SUNDAY EVENING UNTIL EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH IFR POSSIBLE DURING THE PERIOD OF HEAVIER RAIN. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT LLWS
ISSUES MAY BE MITIGATED BY LACK OF A NEAR-SURFACE INVERSION AND SOME
MIXING OF THE WINDS.

SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 KT POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. THE PROBABILITY
OF AVIATION HAZARDS IS LOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH THE SETTING OF THE SUN AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED AND SCA WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE FOR SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE DURING
THE EVENING AND CHANNELLING WILL ENHANCE SPEEDS UP THE BAY BUT
CURRENT FORECAST IS TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA.

SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SUNDAY MAY REACH MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT POSSIBLE. STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT
CONTINUE MONDAY...BECOMING WESTERLY MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
BPP/WOODY!/ADS/CEM







000
FXUS61 KRNK 212352
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
652 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TONIGHT
BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A COMPLEX
STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY...MOVING THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY
BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM BEFORE A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY...RETURNING TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS 200 PM EST FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT UNDER THE ARCTIC HIGH WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS. WHILE IN THE WEST ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...850 MB WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING TO AROUND PLUS 5C BY 12Z SATURDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 10 DEGREES IN THE COLDER MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS TO THE MID 20S ACROSS THE RIDGETOPS. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
OFF TO OUR EAST ON SATURDAY. UNDER BRIGHT SUNSHINE HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
LOWER 50S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM EST FRIDAY...

RIDGING BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT EXTENDING INLAND ACROSS THE SE STATES
WILL WEAKEN SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COMPLEX/LARGE STORM SYSTEM THAT
WILL TAKE SHAPE FROM TX EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES. NEW MODELS
CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF DEEPER MOISTURE WITH
THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT AS PIECES OF CONVECTION FROM THE UPPER LOW
WELL TO THE SW AND OVER THE SE WITH THE COASTAL FRONT TEND TO INHIBIT
TRANSPORT. HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE PERHAPS ENOUGH
ISENTROPIC LIFT/UPSLOPE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO POSSIBLY DEVELOP SOME
LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE NW N CAROLINA MOUNTAINS SO KEPT A VERY LOW
POP LATE ALTHOUGH APPEARS LITTLE MORE THAN DRIZZLE AT THIS POINT.
DO EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE GIVEN THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION SETUP SO
REMOVED ALL FROZEN PRECIP MENTION AT THE ONSET DESPITE SOME COLD
AIR LIKELY TRAPPED IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS. ELSW INCREASING CLOUDS
BUT STILL DRY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY 30S BEFORE EDGING UP
LATE.

SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS...GUIDANCE QUICKLY EJECTS THE PARENT LOW WITH THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WELL TO THE WEST SUNDAY...WITH A
JET DRIVEN BAND OF DEEPER LIFT SWINGING TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
SW ESPCLY DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS MOST SPOTS BY
MIDNIGHT. THIS AHEAD OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT THAT WILL GET SLOWED
UP BY PRECIP INTO A VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...WHICH SHOULD LIKELY
DELAY THE ONSET FARTHER NORTH...BUT ALSO CREATE A WEAK INSITU
WEDGE LATER IN THE DAY. HOWEVER TIMING REMAINS IFFY GIVEN
CONSENSUS OF GOING EVEN SLOWER AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPLITTING OF
THE HEAVIER RAIN PER STRONG DYNAMICS WELL TO THE NW AND CONVECTION
ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. FOR NOW
APPEARS EVEN WITH THAT SCENARIO THAT THE DEEP SOUTH/SE FLOW WILL
BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME TO SOME DEGREE SO CONTINUING THE TREND OF
LIKELY/CAT POPS SLIDING NE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...JUST A COUPLE HOURS
SLOWER SIMILAR TO THE GFS. BRIEF PERIOD OF 50 KNOT WINDS AT 85H
CROSSING THE MTN EMPIRE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON REMAINS A CONCERN
FOR AT LEAST ADVISORY WINDS ON THE RIDGES SO KEEPING MENTION IN
THE HWO FOR A FEW COUNTIES OUT WEST. KEPT HIGHS A BIT BELOW THE
MAV MOS AS THE COOL MET MOS VALUES LOOK TOO COOL GIVEN THE SLOWER
NATURE TO PRECIP ARRIVAL INTO THE DRY AIR...AND THE DEGREE OF
WARMING ABOVE.

BEST UPWARD MOTION AS SEEN VIA MODEL DIFFLUENCE FIELDS LIKELY TO OCCUR
SUNDAY EVENING AS THE AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE ACCELERATES A BIT WITH A
BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN POSSIBLY SWEEPING ACROSS ESPCLY
SOUTHERN/EASTERN SECTIONS. HOWEVER DESPITE STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND
FORECAST HIGH HELICITY...MOST OF THIS TO STAY ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION...AND GIVEN LACK OF MUCH INSTABILITY WILL TAKE A FASTER
SURFACE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER THE SE TO COINCIDE WITH THE
BETTER SHEAR WHICH DOESNT LOOK TO HAPPEN AT THIS POINT. OTRW
RUNNING WITH OVERALL CAT POPS DURING THE EVENING...THEN QUICKLY
CUTTING BACK TO CHANCE OR LESS OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER JET RIDES A
VERY PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT ALOFT INTO THE AREA LATE. LOW TEMPS
SHOULD REMAIN MILD AND COULD RISE SOME LATE AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE
SW FROM ABOVE.

ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILING THE PARENT LOW TO THE NORTH WILL SLIDE
TOWARD THE REGION A BIT FASTER FROM THE WEST MONDAY...WITH THE LAGGING
COLD ADVECTION SPILLING IN MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN VERY SHALLOW BUT MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS FROM
ZOOMING MONDAY AFTERNOON ESPCLY EAST...AND OVER THE FAR WEST WHERE
MORE OF A SHOWER THREAT COULD OCCUR. LATEST MOS REMAINS VERY WARM
PER SUCH MILD 85H TEMPS THAT LOOK TO PUNCH TO THE SURFACE ON GOOD
MIXING BEFORE THINGS COOL ALOFT LATER ON. SINCE TREND IN THIS
SETUP IS USUALLY FOR THE FRONT TO BE SLOWER CROSSING THE RIDGES
AND IN LINE WITH THE 12Z ECMWF...STAYED ON THE WARM SIDE WITH 60S
WEST AND SOME LOW 70S EAST. POPS IFFY BUT INCLUDED A 20/30 POPS
MOST SPOTS WITH SKIES BECOMING PC MONDAY...THEN MOSTLY ISOLATED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WESTERN SLOPES MONDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR OOZES
IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EST FRIDAY...

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO PROGRESS FROM
NEAR JAMES BAY NORTHEAST TOWARDS GREENLAND. THE SYSTEMS TRAILING
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TO NEAR THE EAST COAT OF
THE U.S.  MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERS VARIOUS SOLUTIONS REGARDING A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS PROGGED TO HEAD NORTH ALONG THIS
FRONT...FROM THE GULF COAST STATES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY
MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. ENOUGH SOLUTIONS OFFER THE POTENTIAL THAT THIS WAVE
WILL HELP BUCKLE THE FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WESTWARD...SO
THAT PRECIPITATION RETURNS TO AT LEAST THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
REGION...IF NOT ALSO CENTRAL PORTIONS. OUR LATEST FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY WILL REFLECT THIS POTENTIAL...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
ENOUGH COLDER AIR WILL HAVE MADE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION FOR SOME
TYPE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION. GIVEN THE MODEL VARIATIONS...FOR
SIMPLICITY SAKE...WILL ONLY OFFER A RAIN VERSUS SNOW FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THIS COASTAL WAVE WILL
BE NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND NO LONGER BE A FACTOR IN OUR
FORECAST.

WHAT WILL BECOME A FACTOR IS YET ANOTHER DEEPENING UPPER LOW
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GUIDANCE IS OFFERING THIS ONE TO TAKE A
FARTHER SOUTH TRACK THAN ITS PREDECESSOR...DEEPEN MORE...AND FUNNEL
A STRONGER SURGE OF COLDER AIR INTO OUR REGION. AFTER AN INITIAL
ROUND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION ON
THURSDAY...ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE PREFERRED AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL TREND LOWER EACH DAY...WITH THE
BIGGEST DROP BEING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE
THE ONLY DAY ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE REST OF THE PERIOD BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 650 PM EST FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE OUR REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS THE
HIGH PASSES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE HIGH CENTER WILL
PUSH OFF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHICH WILL BRING
SURFACE WINDS AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN AND
MVFR OR LOWER CIGS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
ALSO...STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS LATER ON SUNDAY MAY LEAD TO
LLWS...ESPECIALLY THE BLF AREA. A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR DURING
MONDAY OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A DRY SLOT DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE
EXITING FRONT FROM SUNDAY AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK...EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS
EASTERN WV/FAR SW VA...BUT MOSTLY VFR ELSEWHERE WITH A COLDER NW
FLOW.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 215 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WILL BE OUT
OF SERVICE UNTIL PARTS ARRIVE TO REPLACE THE SENSOR. UNTIL THEN
THE VISIBILITY WILL ONLY BE REPORTED WHEN THE CONTROL TOWER IS
STAFFED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/RAB
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS/KK
EQUIPMENT...RAB



000
FXUS61 KRNK 212352
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
652 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TONIGHT
BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A COMPLEX
STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY...MOVING THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY
BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM BEFORE A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY...RETURNING TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS 200 PM EST FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT UNDER THE ARCTIC HIGH WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS. WHILE IN THE WEST ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...850 MB WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING TO AROUND PLUS 5C BY 12Z SATURDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 10 DEGREES IN THE COLDER MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS TO THE MID 20S ACROSS THE RIDGETOPS. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
OFF TO OUR EAST ON SATURDAY. UNDER BRIGHT SUNSHINE HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
LOWER 50S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM EST FRIDAY...

RIDGING BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT EXTENDING INLAND ACROSS THE SE STATES
WILL WEAKEN SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COMPLEX/LARGE STORM SYSTEM THAT
WILL TAKE SHAPE FROM TX EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES. NEW MODELS
CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF DEEPER MOISTURE WITH
THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT AS PIECES OF CONVECTION FROM THE UPPER LOW
WELL TO THE SW AND OVER THE SE WITH THE COASTAL FRONT TEND TO INHIBIT
TRANSPORT. HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE PERHAPS ENOUGH
ISENTROPIC LIFT/UPSLOPE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO POSSIBLY DEVELOP SOME
LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE NW N CAROLINA MOUNTAINS SO KEPT A VERY LOW
POP LATE ALTHOUGH APPEARS LITTLE MORE THAN DRIZZLE AT THIS POINT.
DO EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE GIVEN THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION SETUP SO
REMOVED ALL FROZEN PRECIP MENTION AT THE ONSET DESPITE SOME COLD
AIR LIKELY TRAPPED IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS. ELSW INCREASING CLOUDS
BUT STILL DRY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY 30S BEFORE EDGING UP
LATE.

SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS...GUIDANCE QUICKLY EJECTS THE PARENT LOW WITH THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WELL TO THE WEST SUNDAY...WITH A
JET DRIVEN BAND OF DEEPER LIFT SWINGING TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
SW ESPCLY DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS MOST SPOTS BY
MIDNIGHT. THIS AHEAD OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT THAT WILL GET SLOWED
UP BY PRECIP INTO A VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...WHICH SHOULD LIKELY
DELAY THE ONSET FARTHER NORTH...BUT ALSO CREATE A WEAK INSITU
WEDGE LATER IN THE DAY. HOWEVER TIMING REMAINS IFFY GIVEN
CONSENSUS OF GOING EVEN SLOWER AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPLITTING OF
THE HEAVIER RAIN PER STRONG DYNAMICS WELL TO THE NW AND CONVECTION
ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. FOR NOW
APPEARS EVEN WITH THAT SCENARIO THAT THE DEEP SOUTH/SE FLOW WILL
BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME TO SOME DEGREE SO CONTINUING THE TREND OF
LIKELY/CAT POPS SLIDING NE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...JUST A COUPLE HOURS
SLOWER SIMILAR TO THE GFS. BRIEF PERIOD OF 50 KNOT WINDS AT 85H
CROSSING THE MTN EMPIRE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON REMAINS A CONCERN
FOR AT LEAST ADVISORY WINDS ON THE RIDGES SO KEEPING MENTION IN
THE HWO FOR A FEW COUNTIES OUT WEST. KEPT HIGHS A BIT BELOW THE
MAV MOS AS THE COOL MET MOS VALUES LOOK TOO COOL GIVEN THE SLOWER
NATURE TO PRECIP ARRIVAL INTO THE DRY AIR...AND THE DEGREE OF
WARMING ABOVE.

BEST UPWARD MOTION AS SEEN VIA MODEL DIFFLUENCE FIELDS LIKELY TO OCCUR
SUNDAY EVENING AS THE AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE ACCELERATES A BIT WITH A
BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN POSSIBLY SWEEPING ACROSS ESPCLY
SOUTHERN/EASTERN SECTIONS. HOWEVER DESPITE STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND
FORECAST HIGH HELICITY...MOST OF THIS TO STAY ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION...AND GIVEN LACK OF MUCH INSTABILITY WILL TAKE A FASTER
SURFACE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER THE SE TO COINCIDE WITH THE
BETTER SHEAR WHICH DOESNT LOOK TO HAPPEN AT THIS POINT. OTRW
RUNNING WITH OVERALL CAT POPS DURING THE EVENING...THEN QUICKLY
CUTTING BACK TO CHANCE OR LESS OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER JET RIDES A
VERY PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT ALOFT INTO THE AREA LATE. LOW TEMPS
SHOULD REMAIN MILD AND COULD RISE SOME LATE AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE
SW FROM ABOVE.

ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILING THE PARENT LOW TO THE NORTH WILL SLIDE
TOWARD THE REGION A BIT FASTER FROM THE WEST MONDAY...WITH THE LAGGING
COLD ADVECTION SPILLING IN MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN VERY SHALLOW BUT MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS FROM
ZOOMING MONDAY AFTERNOON ESPCLY EAST...AND OVER THE FAR WEST WHERE
MORE OF A SHOWER THREAT COULD OCCUR. LATEST MOS REMAINS VERY WARM
PER SUCH MILD 85H TEMPS THAT LOOK TO PUNCH TO THE SURFACE ON GOOD
MIXING BEFORE THINGS COOL ALOFT LATER ON. SINCE TREND IN THIS
SETUP IS USUALLY FOR THE FRONT TO BE SLOWER CROSSING THE RIDGES
AND IN LINE WITH THE 12Z ECMWF...STAYED ON THE WARM SIDE WITH 60S
WEST AND SOME LOW 70S EAST. POPS IFFY BUT INCLUDED A 20/30 POPS
MOST SPOTS WITH SKIES BECOMING PC MONDAY...THEN MOSTLY ISOLATED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WESTERN SLOPES MONDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR OOZES
IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EST FRIDAY...

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO PROGRESS FROM
NEAR JAMES BAY NORTHEAST TOWARDS GREENLAND. THE SYSTEMS TRAILING
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TO NEAR THE EAST COAT OF
THE U.S.  MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERS VARIOUS SOLUTIONS REGARDING A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS PROGGED TO HEAD NORTH ALONG THIS
FRONT...FROM THE GULF COAST STATES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY
MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. ENOUGH SOLUTIONS OFFER THE POTENTIAL THAT THIS WAVE
WILL HELP BUCKLE THE FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WESTWARD...SO
THAT PRECIPITATION RETURNS TO AT LEAST THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
REGION...IF NOT ALSO CENTRAL PORTIONS. OUR LATEST FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY WILL REFLECT THIS POTENTIAL...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
ENOUGH COLDER AIR WILL HAVE MADE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION FOR SOME
TYPE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION. GIVEN THE MODEL VARIATIONS...FOR
SIMPLICITY SAKE...WILL ONLY OFFER A RAIN VERSUS SNOW FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THIS COASTAL WAVE WILL
BE NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND NO LONGER BE A FACTOR IN OUR
FORECAST.

WHAT WILL BECOME A FACTOR IS YET ANOTHER DEEPENING UPPER LOW
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GUIDANCE IS OFFERING THIS ONE TO TAKE A
FARTHER SOUTH TRACK THAN ITS PREDECESSOR...DEEPEN MORE...AND FUNNEL
A STRONGER SURGE OF COLDER AIR INTO OUR REGION. AFTER AN INITIAL
ROUND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION ON
THURSDAY...ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE PREFERRED AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL TREND LOWER EACH DAY...WITH THE
BIGGEST DROP BEING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE
THE ONLY DAY ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE REST OF THE PERIOD BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 650 PM EST FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE OUR REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS THE
HIGH PASSES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE HIGH CENTER WILL
PUSH OFF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHICH WILL BRING
SURFACE WINDS AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN AND
MVFR OR LOWER CIGS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
ALSO...STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS LATER ON SUNDAY MAY LEAD TO
LLWS...ESPECIALLY THE BLF AREA. A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR DURING
MONDAY OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A DRY SLOT DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE
EXITING FRONT FROM SUNDAY AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK...EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS
EASTERN WV/FAR SW VA...BUT MOSTLY VFR ELSEWHERE WITH A COLDER NW
FLOW.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 215 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WILL BE OUT
OF SERVICE UNTIL PARTS ARRIVE TO REPLACE THE SENSOR. UNTIL THEN
THE VISIBILITY WILL ONLY BE REPORTED WHEN THE CONTROL TOWER IS
STAFFED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/RAB
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS/KK
EQUIPMENT...RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 212350
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
650 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TONIGHT
BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A COMPLEX
STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY...MOVING THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY
BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM BEFORE A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY...RETURNING TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS 200 PM EST FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT UNDER THE ARCTIC HIGH WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS. WHILE IN THE WEST ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...850 MB WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING TO AROUND PLUS 5C BY 12Z SATURDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 10 DEGREES IN THE COLDER MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS TO THE MID 20S ACROSS THE RIDGETOPS. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
OFF TO OUR EAST ON SATURDAY. UNDER BRIGHT SUNSHINE HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
LOWER 50S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM EST FRIDAY...

RIDGING BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT EXTENDING INLAND ACROSS THE SE STATES
WILL WEAKEN SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COMPLEX/LARGE STORM SYSTEM THAT
WILL TAKE SHAPE FROM TX EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES. NEW MODELS
CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF DEEPER MOISTURE WITH
THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT AS PIECES OF CONVECTION FROM THE UPPER LOW
WELL TO THE SW AND OVER THE SE WITH THE COASTAL FRONT TEND TO INHIBIT
TRANSPORT. HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE PERHAPS ENOUGH
ISENTROPIC LIFT/UPSLOPE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO POSSIBLY DEVELOP SOME
LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE NW N CAROLINA MOUNTAINS SO KEPT A VERY LOW
POP LATE ALTHOUGH APPEARS LITTLE MORE THAN DRIZZLE AT THIS POINT.
DO EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE GIVEN THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION SETUP SO
REMOVED ALL FROZEN PRECIP MENTION AT THE ONSET DESPITE SOME COLD
AIR LIKELY TRAPPED IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS. ELSW INCREASING CLOUDS
BUT STILL DRY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY 30S BEFORE EDGING UP
LATE.

SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS...GUIDANCE QUICKLY EJECTS THE PARENT LOW WITH THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WELL TO THE WEST SUNDAY...WITH A
JET DRIVEN BAND OF DEEPER LIFT SWINGING TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
SW ESPCLY DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS MOST SPOTS BY
MIDNIGHT. THIS AHEAD OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT THAT WILL GET SLOWED
UP BY PRECIP INTO A VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...WHICH SHOULD LIKELY
DELAY THE ONSET FARTHER NORTH...BUT ALSO CREATE A WEAK INSITU
WEDGE LATER IN THE DAY. HOWEVER TIMING REMAINS IFFY GIVEN
CONSENSUS OF GOING EVEN SLOWER AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPLITTING OF
THE HEAVIER RAIN PER STRONG DYNAMICS WELL TO THE NW AND CONVECTION
ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. FOR NOW
APPEARS EVEN WITH THAT SCENARIO THAT THE DEEP SOUTH/SE FLOW WILL
BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME TO SOME DEGREE SO CONTINUING THE TREND OF
LIKELY/CAT POPS SLIDING NE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...JUST A COUPLE HOURS
SLOWER SIMILAR TO THE GFS. BRIEF PERIOD OF 50 KNOT WINDS AT 85H
CROSSING THE MTN EMPIRE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON REMAINS A CONCERN
FOR AT LEAST ADVISORY WINDS ON THE RIDGES SO KEEPING MENTION IN
THE HWO FOR A FEW COUNTIES OUT WEST. KEPT HIGHS A BIT BELOW THE
MAV MOS AS THE COOL MET MOS VALUES LOOK TOO COOL GIVEN THE SLOWER
NATURE TO PRECIP ARRIVAL INTO THE DRY AIR...AND THE DEGREE OF
WARMING ABOVE.

BEST UPWARD MOTION AS SEEN VIA MODEL DIFFLUENCE FIELDS LIKELY TO OCCUR
SUNDAY EVENING AS THE AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE ACCELERATES A BIT WITH A
BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN POSSIBLY SWEEPING ACROSS ESPCLY
SOUTHERN/EASTERN SECTIONS. HOWEVER DESPITE STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND
FORECAST HIGH HELICITY...MOST OF THIS TO STAY ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION...AND GIVEN LACK OF MUCH INSTABILITY WILL TAKE A FASTER
SURFACE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER THE SE TO COINCIDE WITH THE
BETTER SHEAR WHICH DOESNT LOOK TO HAPPEN AT THIS POINT. OTRW
RUNNING WITH OVERALL CAT POPS DURING THE EVENING...THEN QUICKLY
CUTTING BACK TO CHANCE OR LESS OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER JET RIDES A
VERY PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT ALOFT INTO THE AREA LATE. LOW TEMPS
SHOULD REMAIN MILD AND COULD RISE SOME LATE AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE
SW FROM ABOVE.

ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILING THE PARENT LOW TO THE NORTH WILL SLIDE
TOWARD THE REGION A BIT FASTER FROM THE WEST MONDAY...WITH THE LAGGING
COLD ADVECTION SPILLING IN MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN VERY SHALLOW BUT MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS FROM
ZOOMING MONDAY AFTERNOON ESPCLY EAST...AND OVER THE FAR WEST WHERE
MORE OF A SHOWER THREAT COULD OCCUR. LATEST MOS REMAINS VERY WARM
PER SUCH MILD 85H TEMPS THAT LOOK TO PUNCH TO THE SURFACE ON GOOD
MIXING BEFORE THINGS COOL ALOFT LATER ON. SINCE TREND IN THIS
SETUP IS USUALLY FOR THE FRONT TO BE SLOWER CROSSING THE RIDGES
AND IN LINE WITH THE 12Z ECMWF...STAYED ON THE WARM SIDE WITH 60S
WEST AND SOME LOW 70S EAST. POPS IFFY BUT INCLUDED A 20/30 POPS
MOST SPOTS WITH SKIES BECOMING PC MONDAY...THEN MOSTLY ISOLATED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WESTERN SLOPES MONDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR OOZES
IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EST FRIDAY...

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO PROGRESS FROM
NEAR JAMES BAY NORTHEAST TOWARDS GREENLAND. THE SYSTEMS TRAILING
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TO NEAR THE EAST COAT OF
THE U.S.  MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERS VARIOUS SOLUTIONS REGARDING A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS PROGGED TO HEAD NORTH ALONG THIS
FRONT...FROM THE GULF COAST STATES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY
MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. ENOUGH SOLUTIONS OFFER THE POTENTIAL THAT THIS WAVE
WILL HELP BUCKLE THE FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WESTWARD...SO
THAT PRECIPITATION RETURNS TO AT LEAST THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
REGION...IF NOT ALSO CENTRAL PORTIONS. OUR LATEST FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY WILL REFLECT THIS POTENTIAL...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
ENOUGH COLDER AIR WILL HAVE MADE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION FOR SOME
TYPE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION. GIVEN THE MODEL VARIATIONS...FOR
SIMPLICITY SAKE...WILL ONLY OFFER A RAIN VERSUS SNOW FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THIS COASTAL WAVE WILL
BE NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND NO LONGER BE A FACTOR IN OUR
FORECAST.

WHAT WILL BECOME A FACTOR IS YET ANOTHER DEEPENING UPPER LOW
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GUIDANCE IS OFFERING THIS ONE TO TAKE A
FARTHER SOUTH TRACK THAN ITS PREDECESSOR...DEEPEN MORE...AND FUNNEL
A STRONGER SURGE OF COLDER AIR INTO OUR REGION. AFTER AN INITIAL
ROUND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION ON
THURSDAY...ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE PREFERRED AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL TREND LOWER EACH DAY...WITH THE
BIGGEST DROP BEING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE
THE ONLY DAY ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE REST OF THE PERIOD BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM EST FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE OUR REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS THE
HIGH PASSES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THE HIGH CENTER
WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHICH WILL
BRING SURFACE WINDS AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN AND
MVFR OR LOWER CIGS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
ALSO...STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS LATER ON SUNDAY MAY LEAD TO
LLWS...ESPECIALLY THE BLF AREA. A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR DURING
MONDAY OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A DRY SLOT DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE
EXITING FRONT FROM SUNDAY AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK...EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS
EASTERN WV/FAR SW VA...BUT MOSTLY VFR ELSEWHERE WITH A COLDER NW
FLOW.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 215 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WILL BE OUT
OF SERVICE UNTIL PARTS ARRIVE TO REPLACE THE SENSOR. UNTIL THEN
THE VISIBILITY WILL ONLY BE REPORTED WHEN THE CONTROL TOWER IS
STAFFED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/RAB
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS/KK
EQUIPMENT...RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 212350
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
650 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TONIGHT
BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A COMPLEX
STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY...MOVING THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY
BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM BEFORE A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY...RETURNING TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS 200 PM EST FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT UNDER THE ARCTIC HIGH WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS. WHILE IN THE WEST ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...850 MB WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING TO AROUND PLUS 5C BY 12Z SATURDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 10 DEGREES IN THE COLDER MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS TO THE MID 20S ACROSS THE RIDGETOPS. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
OFF TO OUR EAST ON SATURDAY. UNDER BRIGHT SUNSHINE HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
LOWER 50S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM EST FRIDAY...

RIDGING BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT EXTENDING INLAND ACROSS THE SE STATES
WILL WEAKEN SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COMPLEX/LARGE STORM SYSTEM THAT
WILL TAKE SHAPE FROM TX EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES. NEW MODELS
CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF DEEPER MOISTURE WITH
THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT AS PIECES OF CONVECTION FROM THE UPPER LOW
WELL TO THE SW AND OVER THE SE WITH THE COASTAL FRONT TEND TO INHIBIT
TRANSPORT. HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE PERHAPS ENOUGH
ISENTROPIC LIFT/UPSLOPE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO POSSIBLY DEVELOP SOME
LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE NW N CAROLINA MOUNTAINS SO KEPT A VERY LOW
POP LATE ALTHOUGH APPEARS LITTLE MORE THAN DRIZZLE AT THIS POINT.
DO EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE GIVEN THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION SETUP SO
REMOVED ALL FROZEN PRECIP MENTION AT THE ONSET DESPITE SOME COLD
AIR LIKELY TRAPPED IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS. ELSW INCREASING CLOUDS
BUT STILL DRY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY 30S BEFORE EDGING UP
LATE.

SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS...GUIDANCE QUICKLY EJECTS THE PARENT LOW WITH THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WELL TO THE WEST SUNDAY...WITH A
JET DRIVEN BAND OF DEEPER LIFT SWINGING TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
SW ESPCLY DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS MOST SPOTS BY
MIDNIGHT. THIS AHEAD OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT THAT WILL GET SLOWED
UP BY PRECIP INTO A VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...WHICH SHOULD LIKELY
DELAY THE ONSET FARTHER NORTH...BUT ALSO CREATE A WEAK INSITU
WEDGE LATER IN THE DAY. HOWEVER TIMING REMAINS IFFY GIVEN
CONSENSUS OF GOING EVEN SLOWER AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPLITTING OF
THE HEAVIER RAIN PER STRONG DYNAMICS WELL TO THE NW AND CONVECTION
ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. FOR NOW
APPEARS EVEN WITH THAT SCENARIO THAT THE DEEP SOUTH/SE FLOW WILL
BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME TO SOME DEGREE SO CONTINUING THE TREND OF
LIKELY/CAT POPS SLIDING NE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...JUST A COUPLE HOURS
SLOWER SIMILAR TO THE GFS. BRIEF PERIOD OF 50 KNOT WINDS AT 85H
CROSSING THE MTN EMPIRE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON REMAINS A CONCERN
FOR AT LEAST ADVISORY WINDS ON THE RIDGES SO KEEPING MENTION IN
THE HWO FOR A FEW COUNTIES OUT WEST. KEPT HIGHS A BIT BELOW THE
MAV MOS AS THE COOL MET MOS VALUES LOOK TOO COOL GIVEN THE SLOWER
NATURE TO PRECIP ARRIVAL INTO THE DRY AIR...AND THE DEGREE OF
WARMING ABOVE.

BEST UPWARD MOTION AS SEEN VIA MODEL DIFFLUENCE FIELDS LIKELY TO OCCUR
SUNDAY EVENING AS THE AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE ACCELERATES A BIT WITH A
BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN POSSIBLY SWEEPING ACROSS ESPCLY
SOUTHERN/EASTERN SECTIONS. HOWEVER DESPITE STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND
FORECAST HIGH HELICITY...MOST OF THIS TO STAY ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION...AND GIVEN LACK OF MUCH INSTABILITY WILL TAKE A FASTER
SURFACE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER THE SE TO COINCIDE WITH THE
BETTER SHEAR WHICH DOESNT LOOK TO HAPPEN AT THIS POINT. OTRW
RUNNING WITH OVERALL CAT POPS DURING THE EVENING...THEN QUICKLY
CUTTING BACK TO CHANCE OR LESS OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER JET RIDES A
VERY PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT ALOFT INTO THE AREA LATE. LOW TEMPS
SHOULD REMAIN MILD AND COULD RISE SOME LATE AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE
SW FROM ABOVE.

ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILING THE PARENT LOW TO THE NORTH WILL SLIDE
TOWARD THE REGION A BIT FASTER FROM THE WEST MONDAY...WITH THE LAGGING
COLD ADVECTION SPILLING IN MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN VERY SHALLOW BUT MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS FROM
ZOOMING MONDAY AFTERNOON ESPCLY EAST...AND OVER THE FAR WEST WHERE
MORE OF A SHOWER THREAT COULD OCCUR. LATEST MOS REMAINS VERY WARM
PER SUCH MILD 85H TEMPS THAT LOOK TO PUNCH TO THE SURFACE ON GOOD
MIXING BEFORE THINGS COOL ALOFT LATER ON. SINCE TREND IN THIS
SETUP IS USUALLY FOR THE FRONT TO BE SLOWER CROSSING THE RIDGES
AND IN LINE WITH THE 12Z ECMWF...STAYED ON THE WARM SIDE WITH 60S
WEST AND SOME LOW 70S EAST. POPS IFFY BUT INCLUDED A 20/30 POPS
MOST SPOTS WITH SKIES BECOMING PC MONDAY...THEN MOSTLY ISOLATED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WESTERN SLOPES MONDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR OOZES
IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EST FRIDAY...

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO PROGRESS FROM
NEAR JAMES BAY NORTHEAST TOWARDS GREENLAND. THE SYSTEMS TRAILING
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TO NEAR THE EAST COAT OF
THE U.S.  MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERS VARIOUS SOLUTIONS REGARDING A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS PROGGED TO HEAD NORTH ALONG THIS
FRONT...FROM THE GULF COAST STATES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY
MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. ENOUGH SOLUTIONS OFFER THE POTENTIAL THAT THIS WAVE
WILL HELP BUCKLE THE FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WESTWARD...SO
THAT PRECIPITATION RETURNS TO AT LEAST THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
REGION...IF NOT ALSO CENTRAL PORTIONS. OUR LATEST FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY WILL REFLECT THIS POTENTIAL...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
ENOUGH COLDER AIR WILL HAVE MADE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION FOR SOME
TYPE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION. GIVEN THE MODEL VARIATIONS...FOR
SIMPLICITY SAKE...WILL ONLY OFFER A RAIN VERSUS SNOW FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THIS COASTAL WAVE WILL
BE NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND NO LONGER BE A FACTOR IN OUR
FORECAST.

WHAT WILL BECOME A FACTOR IS YET ANOTHER DEEPENING UPPER LOW
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GUIDANCE IS OFFERING THIS ONE TO TAKE A
FARTHER SOUTH TRACK THAN ITS PREDECESSOR...DEEPEN MORE...AND FUNNEL
A STRONGER SURGE OF COLDER AIR INTO OUR REGION. AFTER AN INITIAL
ROUND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION ON
THURSDAY...ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE PREFERRED AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL TREND LOWER EACH DAY...WITH THE
BIGGEST DROP BEING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE
THE ONLY DAY ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE REST OF THE PERIOD BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM EST FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE OUR REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS THE
HIGH PASSES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THE HIGH CENTER
WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHICH WILL
BRING SURFACE WINDS AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN AND
MVFR OR LOWER CIGS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
ALSO...STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS LATER ON SUNDAY MAY LEAD TO
LLWS...ESPECIALLY THE BLF AREA. A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR DURING
MONDAY OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A DRY SLOT DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE
EXITING FRONT FROM SUNDAY AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK...EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS
EASTERN WV/FAR SW VA...BUT MOSTLY VFR ELSEWHERE WITH A COLDER NW
FLOW.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 215 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WILL BE OUT
OF SERVICE UNTIL PARTS ARRIVE TO REPLACE THE SENSOR. UNTIL THEN
THE VISIBILITY WILL ONLY BE REPORTED WHEN THE CONTROL TOWER IS
STAFFED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/RAB
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS/KK
EQUIPMENT...RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 212350
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
650 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TONIGHT
BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A COMPLEX
STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY...MOVING THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY
BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM BEFORE A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY...RETURNING TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS 200 PM EST FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT UNDER THE ARCTIC HIGH WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS. WHILE IN THE WEST ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...850 MB WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING TO AROUND PLUS 5C BY 12Z SATURDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 10 DEGREES IN THE COLDER MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS TO THE MID 20S ACROSS THE RIDGETOPS. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
OFF TO OUR EAST ON SATURDAY. UNDER BRIGHT SUNSHINE HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
LOWER 50S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM EST FRIDAY...

RIDGING BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT EXTENDING INLAND ACROSS THE SE STATES
WILL WEAKEN SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COMPLEX/LARGE STORM SYSTEM THAT
WILL TAKE SHAPE FROM TX EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES. NEW MODELS
CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF DEEPER MOISTURE WITH
THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT AS PIECES OF CONVECTION FROM THE UPPER LOW
WELL TO THE SW AND OVER THE SE WITH THE COASTAL FRONT TEND TO INHIBIT
TRANSPORT. HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE PERHAPS ENOUGH
ISENTROPIC LIFT/UPSLOPE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO POSSIBLY DEVELOP SOME
LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE NW N CAROLINA MOUNTAINS SO KEPT A VERY LOW
POP LATE ALTHOUGH APPEARS LITTLE MORE THAN DRIZZLE AT THIS POINT.
DO EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE GIVEN THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION SETUP SO
REMOVED ALL FROZEN PRECIP MENTION AT THE ONSET DESPITE SOME COLD
AIR LIKELY TRAPPED IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS. ELSW INCREASING CLOUDS
BUT STILL DRY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY 30S BEFORE EDGING UP
LATE.

SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS...GUIDANCE QUICKLY EJECTS THE PARENT LOW WITH THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WELL TO THE WEST SUNDAY...WITH A
JET DRIVEN BAND OF DEEPER LIFT SWINGING TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
SW ESPCLY DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS MOST SPOTS BY
MIDNIGHT. THIS AHEAD OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT THAT WILL GET SLOWED
UP BY PRECIP INTO A VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...WHICH SHOULD LIKELY
DELAY THE ONSET FARTHER NORTH...BUT ALSO CREATE A WEAK INSITU
WEDGE LATER IN THE DAY. HOWEVER TIMING REMAINS IFFY GIVEN
CONSENSUS OF GOING EVEN SLOWER AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPLITTING OF
THE HEAVIER RAIN PER STRONG DYNAMICS WELL TO THE NW AND CONVECTION
ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. FOR NOW
APPEARS EVEN WITH THAT SCENARIO THAT THE DEEP SOUTH/SE FLOW WILL
BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME TO SOME DEGREE SO CONTINUING THE TREND OF
LIKELY/CAT POPS SLIDING NE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...JUST A COUPLE HOURS
SLOWER SIMILAR TO THE GFS. BRIEF PERIOD OF 50 KNOT WINDS AT 85H
CROSSING THE MTN EMPIRE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON REMAINS A CONCERN
FOR AT LEAST ADVISORY WINDS ON THE RIDGES SO KEEPING MENTION IN
THE HWO FOR A FEW COUNTIES OUT WEST. KEPT HIGHS A BIT BELOW THE
MAV MOS AS THE COOL MET MOS VALUES LOOK TOO COOL GIVEN THE SLOWER
NATURE TO PRECIP ARRIVAL INTO THE DRY AIR...AND THE DEGREE OF
WARMING ABOVE.

BEST UPWARD MOTION AS SEEN VIA MODEL DIFFLUENCE FIELDS LIKELY TO OCCUR
SUNDAY EVENING AS THE AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE ACCELERATES A BIT WITH A
BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN POSSIBLY SWEEPING ACROSS ESPCLY
SOUTHERN/EASTERN SECTIONS. HOWEVER DESPITE STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND
FORECAST HIGH HELICITY...MOST OF THIS TO STAY ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION...AND GIVEN LACK OF MUCH INSTABILITY WILL TAKE A FASTER
SURFACE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER THE SE TO COINCIDE WITH THE
BETTER SHEAR WHICH DOESNT LOOK TO HAPPEN AT THIS POINT. OTRW
RUNNING WITH OVERALL CAT POPS DURING THE EVENING...THEN QUICKLY
CUTTING BACK TO CHANCE OR LESS OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER JET RIDES A
VERY PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT ALOFT INTO THE AREA LATE. LOW TEMPS
SHOULD REMAIN MILD AND COULD RISE SOME LATE AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE
SW FROM ABOVE.

ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILING THE PARENT LOW TO THE NORTH WILL SLIDE
TOWARD THE REGION A BIT FASTER FROM THE WEST MONDAY...WITH THE LAGGING
COLD ADVECTION SPILLING IN MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN VERY SHALLOW BUT MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS FROM
ZOOMING MONDAY AFTERNOON ESPCLY EAST...AND OVER THE FAR WEST WHERE
MORE OF A SHOWER THREAT COULD OCCUR. LATEST MOS REMAINS VERY WARM
PER SUCH MILD 85H TEMPS THAT LOOK TO PUNCH TO THE SURFACE ON GOOD
MIXING BEFORE THINGS COOL ALOFT LATER ON. SINCE TREND IN THIS
SETUP IS USUALLY FOR THE FRONT TO BE SLOWER CROSSING THE RIDGES
AND IN LINE WITH THE 12Z ECMWF...STAYED ON THE WARM SIDE WITH 60S
WEST AND SOME LOW 70S EAST. POPS IFFY BUT INCLUDED A 20/30 POPS
MOST SPOTS WITH SKIES BECOMING PC MONDAY...THEN MOSTLY ISOLATED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WESTERN SLOPES MONDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR OOZES
IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EST FRIDAY...

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO PROGRESS FROM
NEAR JAMES BAY NORTHEAST TOWARDS GREENLAND. THE SYSTEMS TRAILING
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TO NEAR THE EAST COAT OF
THE U.S.  MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERS VARIOUS SOLUTIONS REGARDING A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS PROGGED TO HEAD NORTH ALONG THIS
FRONT...FROM THE GULF COAST STATES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY
MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. ENOUGH SOLUTIONS OFFER THE POTENTIAL THAT THIS WAVE
WILL HELP BUCKLE THE FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WESTWARD...SO
THAT PRECIPITATION RETURNS TO AT LEAST THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
REGION...IF NOT ALSO CENTRAL PORTIONS. OUR LATEST FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY WILL REFLECT THIS POTENTIAL...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
ENOUGH COLDER AIR WILL HAVE MADE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION FOR SOME
TYPE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION. GIVEN THE MODEL VARIATIONS...FOR
SIMPLICITY SAKE...WILL ONLY OFFER A RAIN VERSUS SNOW FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THIS COASTAL WAVE WILL
BE NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND NO LONGER BE A FACTOR IN OUR
FORECAST.

WHAT WILL BECOME A FACTOR IS YET ANOTHER DEEPENING UPPER LOW
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GUIDANCE IS OFFERING THIS ONE TO TAKE A
FARTHER SOUTH TRACK THAN ITS PREDECESSOR...DEEPEN MORE...AND FUNNEL
A STRONGER SURGE OF COLDER AIR INTO OUR REGION. AFTER AN INITIAL
ROUND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION ON
THURSDAY...ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE PREFERRED AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL TREND LOWER EACH DAY...WITH THE
BIGGEST DROP BEING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE
THE ONLY DAY ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE REST OF THE PERIOD BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM EST FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE OUR REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS THE
HIGH PASSES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THE HIGH CENTER
WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHICH WILL
BRING SURFACE WINDS AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN AND
MVFR OR LOWER CIGS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
ALSO...STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS LATER ON SUNDAY MAY LEAD TO
LLWS...ESPECIALLY THE BLF AREA. A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR DURING
MONDAY OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A DRY SLOT DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE
EXITING FRONT FROM SUNDAY AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK...EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS
EASTERN WV/FAR SW VA...BUT MOSTLY VFR ELSEWHERE WITH A COLDER NW
FLOW.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 215 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WILL BE OUT
OF SERVICE UNTIL PARTS ARRIVE TO REPLACE THE SENSOR. UNTIL THEN
THE VISIBILITY WILL ONLY BE REPORTED WHEN THE CONTROL TOWER IS
STAFFED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/RAB
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS/KK
EQUIPMENT...RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 212350
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
650 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TONIGHT
BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A COMPLEX
STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY...MOVING THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY
BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM BEFORE A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY...RETURNING TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS 200 PM EST FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT UNDER THE ARCTIC HIGH WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS. WHILE IN THE WEST ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...850 MB WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING TO AROUND PLUS 5C BY 12Z SATURDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 10 DEGREES IN THE COLDER MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS TO THE MID 20S ACROSS THE RIDGETOPS. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
OFF TO OUR EAST ON SATURDAY. UNDER BRIGHT SUNSHINE HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
LOWER 50S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM EST FRIDAY...

RIDGING BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT EXTENDING INLAND ACROSS THE SE STATES
WILL WEAKEN SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COMPLEX/LARGE STORM SYSTEM THAT
WILL TAKE SHAPE FROM TX EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES. NEW MODELS
CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF DEEPER MOISTURE WITH
THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT AS PIECES OF CONVECTION FROM THE UPPER LOW
WELL TO THE SW AND OVER THE SE WITH THE COASTAL FRONT TEND TO INHIBIT
TRANSPORT. HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE PERHAPS ENOUGH
ISENTROPIC LIFT/UPSLOPE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO POSSIBLY DEVELOP SOME
LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE NW N CAROLINA MOUNTAINS SO KEPT A VERY LOW
POP LATE ALTHOUGH APPEARS LITTLE MORE THAN DRIZZLE AT THIS POINT.
DO EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE GIVEN THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION SETUP SO
REMOVED ALL FROZEN PRECIP MENTION AT THE ONSET DESPITE SOME COLD
AIR LIKELY TRAPPED IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS. ELSW INCREASING CLOUDS
BUT STILL DRY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY 30S BEFORE EDGING UP
LATE.

SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS...GUIDANCE QUICKLY EJECTS THE PARENT LOW WITH THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WELL TO THE WEST SUNDAY...WITH A
JET DRIVEN BAND OF DEEPER LIFT SWINGING TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
SW ESPCLY DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS MOST SPOTS BY
MIDNIGHT. THIS AHEAD OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT THAT WILL GET SLOWED
UP BY PRECIP INTO A VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...WHICH SHOULD LIKELY
DELAY THE ONSET FARTHER NORTH...BUT ALSO CREATE A WEAK INSITU
WEDGE LATER IN THE DAY. HOWEVER TIMING REMAINS IFFY GIVEN
CONSENSUS OF GOING EVEN SLOWER AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPLITTING OF
THE HEAVIER RAIN PER STRONG DYNAMICS WELL TO THE NW AND CONVECTION
ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. FOR NOW
APPEARS EVEN WITH THAT SCENARIO THAT THE DEEP SOUTH/SE FLOW WILL
BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME TO SOME DEGREE SO CONTINUING THE TREND OF
LIKELY/CAT POPS SLIDING NE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...JUST A COUPLE HOURS
SLOWER SIMILAR TO THE GFS. BRIEF PERIOD OF 50 KNOT WINDS AT 85H
CROSSING THE MTN EMPIRE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON REMAINS A CONCERN
FOR AT LEAST ADVISORY WINDS ON THE RIDGES SO KEEPING MENTION IN
THE HWO FOR A FEW COUNTIES OUT WEST. KEPT HIGHS A BIT BELOW THE
MAV MOS AS THE COOL MET MOS VALUES LOOK TOO COOL GIVEN THE SLOWER
NATURE TO PRECIP ARRIVAL INTO THE DRY AIR...AND THE DEGREE OF
WARMING ABOVE.

BEST UPWARD MOTION AS SEEN VIA MODEL DIFFLUENCE FIELDS LIKELY TO OCCUR
SUNDAY EVENING AS THE AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE ACCELERATES A BIT WITH A
BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN POSSIBLY SWEEPING ACROSS ESPCLY
SOUTHERN/EASTERN SECTIONS. HOWEVER DESPITE STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND
FORECAST HIGH HELICITY...MOST OF THIS TO STAY ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION...AND GIVEN LACK OF MUCH INSTABILITY WILL TAKE A FASTER
SURFACE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER THE SE TO COINCIDE WITH THE
BETTER SHEAR WHICH DOESNT LOOK TO HAPPEN AT THIS POINT. OTRW
RUNNING WITH OVERALL CAT POPS DURING THE EVENING...THEN QUICKLY
CUTTING BACK TO CHANCE OR LESS OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER JET RIDES A
VERY PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT ALOFT INTO THE AREA LATE. LOW TEMPS
SHOULD REMAIN MILD AND COULD RISE SOME LATE AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE
SW FROM ABOVE.

ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILING THE PARENT LOW TO THE NORTH WILL SLIDE
TOWARD THE REGION A BIT FASTER FROM THE WEST MONDAY...WITH THE LAGGING
COLD ADVECTION SPILLING IN MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN VERY SHALLOW BUT MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS FROM
ZOOMING MONDAY AFTERNOON ESPCLY EAST...AND OVER THE FAR WEST WHERE
MORE OF A SHOWER THREAT COULD OCCUR. LATEST MOS REMAINS VERY WARM
PER SUCH MILD 85H TEMPS THAT LOOK TO PUNCH TO THE SURFACE ON GOOD
MIXING BEFORE THINGS COOL ALOFT LATER ON. SINCE TREND IN THIS
SETUP IS USUALLY FOR THE FRONT TO BE SLOWER CROSSING THE RIDGES
AND IN LINE WITH THE 12Z ECMWF...STAYED ON THE WARM SIDE WITH 60S
WEST AND SOME LOW 70S EAST. POPS IFFY BUT INCLUDED A 20/30 POPS
MOST SPOTS WITH SKIES BECOMING PC MONDAY...THEN MOSTLY ISOLATED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WESTERN SLOPES MONDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR OOZES
IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EST FRIDAY...

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO PROGRESS FROM
NEAR JAMES BAY NORTHEAST TOWARDS GREENLAND. THE SYSTEMS TRAILING
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TO NEAR THE EAST COAT OF
THE U.S.  MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERS VARIOUS SOLUTIONS REGARDING A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS PROGGED TO HEAD NORTH ALONG THIS
FRONT...FROM THE GULF COAST STATES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY
MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. ENOUGH SOLUTIONS OFFER THE POTENTIAL THAT THIS WAVE
WILL HELP BUCKLE THE FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WESTWARD...SO
THAT PRECIPITATION RETURNS TO AT LEAST THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
REGION...IF NOT ALSO CENTRAL PORTIONS. OUR LATEST FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY WILL REFLECT THIS POTENTIAL...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
ENOUGH COLDER AIR WILL HAVE MADE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION FOR SOME
TYPE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION. GIVEN THE MODEL VARIATIONS...FOR
SIMPLICITY SAKE...WILL ONLY OFFER A RAIN VERSUS SNOW FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THIS COASTAL WAVE WILL
BE NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND NO LONGER BE A FACTOR IN OUR
FORECAST.

WHAT WILL BECOME A FACTOR IS YET ANOTHER DEEPENING UPPER LOW
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GUIDANCE IS OFFERING THIS ONE TO TAKE A
FARTHER SOUTH TRACK THAN ITS PREDECESSOR...DEEPEN MORE...AND FUNNEL
A STRONGER SURGE OF COLDER AIR INTO OUR REGION. AFTER AN INITIAL
ROUND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION ON
THURSDAY...ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE PREFERRED AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL TREND LOWER EACH DAY...WITH THE
BIGGEST DROP BEING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE
THE ONLY DAY ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE REST OF THE PERIOD BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM EST FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE OUR REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS THE
HIGH PASSES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THE HIGH CENTER
WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHICH WILL
BRING SURFACE WINDS AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN AND
MVFR OR LOWER CIGS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
ALSO...STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS LATER ON SUNDAY MAY LEAD TO
LLWS...ESPECIALLY THE BLF AREA. A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR DURING
MONDAY OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A DRY SLOT DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE
EXITING FRONT FROM SUNDAY AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK...EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS
EASTERN WV/FAR SW VA...BUT MOSTLY VFR ELSEWHERE WITH A COLDER NW
FLOW.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 215 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WILL BE OUT
OF SERVICE UNTIL PARTS ARRIVE TO REPLACE THE SENSOR. UNTIL THEN
THE VISIBILITY WILL ONLY BE REPORTED WHEN THE CONTROL TOWER IS
STAFFED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/RAB
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS/KK
EQUIPMENT...RAB




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