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000
FXUS61 KLWX 311534
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1134 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE IS DESCENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES...AND WILL CROSS THE
CAROLINAS SATURDAY BEFORE STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE WHILE HEADING
TOWARDS CAPE COD SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA MONDAY
AND TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

W.V. STLT IMGRY SHOWS SHORT WV HAS PUSHED INTO WI. THIS WILL DIVE
INTO SC SAT AS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN UNDERGOES SUBSTANTIAL
AMPLIFICATION W/ A RDG OVR THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY AND A
LARGE TROF DVLPG OFFSHORE AS THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS
PHASE.

WITH THIS SOUTHWARD TRAJECTORY...FORCING WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS FOR THE FIRST STAGE OF THIS SYSTEM. SOME RAIN SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THERE BUT MUCH OF CENTRAL MD AND VA
WILL BE IN A SQUEEZE PLAY UNTIL TONIGHT OR SATURDAY WHEN THE
SYSTEM WINDS UP AND BROAD SCALE LIFT WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AREA-
WIDE. HOWEVER...ANY HEAVIER PRECIPITATION FROM THE COASTAL LOW
WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.

IN TERMS OF ANY SNOWFALL...AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY COLD ADVECTION
WILL BE VERY MINIMAL WITH THIS OCCLUDED SYSTEM. THE 850-1000 TCKNS
DOES NOT GO SUB 1300M UNTIL THE LOW HAS DVLPD OFFSHORE. SNOW
IS XPCTD TO BE  LIMITED TO THE VERY HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF WV...AND
MOSTLY AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT THAT. THE SNOW WILL BE FAVORED DURING
DIURNAL MINIMUMS IN TEMPERATURE AND ANY SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE MINOR.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS TO NEAR 60 IN THE LOWLANDS. LOWS TONIGHT TEMPERED BY
CLOUD COVER IN RANGING FROM THE MID 30S HIGHLANDS TO MID 40S EAST.
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE ON SATURDAY AND WILL LIMIT HIGHS A BIT MORE THERE...WELL INTO
THE 40S. NEAR 50 TO THE EAST. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE
ON SATURDAY AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS OFF THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

BLV WINDS MAY END UP BEING THE BIGGEST STORY FM THE UPCOMING SYSTEM.

BY SAT NGT...S/WV ENERGY WUD HV SHIFTED OFF THE ATLC CST...INDUCING
CYCLOGENESIS NE OF CAPE HATTERAS. IN TERMS OF PCPN E OF THE
APLCHNS...THAT PRETTY MUCH WL MARK THE END...AS DRIER AIR WL WORK
IN ON THE NW SIDE OF THE CYCLONE. HV OPTED TO HOLD ONTO MORE CLDS
THAN GFS INDICATING...PARTLY DUE TO TIMING/UNCERTAINTY DIFFS AND
THE OTHER PART DUE TO LOW H5 HGTS/PVA STILL PIVOTING ACRS CWFA.
WINDS MAY BE THE BIGGEST IMPACT...BUT THE NOCTURNAL TIMING MAY
PREVENT THE FULL 30-40 KT AVBL H9-8 FM MIXING DOWN. WL BE KEEPING
GUSTS 25-30 MPH.

ACRS THE MTNS...THE AMS WL BE COOLING SUFFICIENTLY FOR SOME SNOW.
HWVR...THE BEST DYNAMIC COOLING WL PASS S OF AREA. THIS LEAVES ONLY
A MARGINALLY FVRBL AMS W/ WARM GRND. SNOW TOTALS 1-2" IN THE HIGHER
ELEVS. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QSTN THAT ACCUMS COULD BE ENUF TO
REACH ADVSRY LVL...BUT THIS IS NOT A SLAM DUNK AND WL LV THIS TO
BE DECIDED LATER..

SUNDAY LOOKS LK A WINDY DAY. H8-5 RDGG BLDS QUITE QUICKLY
SUNDAY...SHUTTING OFF UPSLP SHSN. A TIGHT PRES GRAD OVER AREA FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY...AND BETTER MIXING. HV 30-35 MPH GUSTS IN GRIDS.

MIN-T IN THE 30S AREAWIDE SAT NGT/SUN MRNG...AND TEMPS STRUGGLING
TO REACH 50F SUN AFTN.

SUN NGT LOOKS QUITE CHILLY AS RDG BLDS OVER AREA. CLR SKIES/DECOUPLING
WNDS/DEWPTS IN THE 20S. ITS LOOKING LIKE A HARD FREEZE FOR MOST OF
THE FCST AREA XCPT FOR THE URBAN DOWNTOWNS AND COMMUNITIES NEAR THE
BAY. THAT LIKELY WL MARK THE END OF THE GROWING SEASON FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE HIGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND NEAR THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY
SOME DURING THE DAY BUT REMAIN A LITTLE ON THE CHILLY SIDE MONDAY
NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO GRADUALLY SLIDE INTO THE REGION AND BRING A
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS. PRECIP TIMING HAS BEEN PUSHED BACK TO
WED-WED NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND TONIGHT.
ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY WEST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH MOST
OF THIS PERIOD. A VFR CEILING MAY BE PREVALENT WITH VERY FEW
BREAKS WITH THE APPRAOCHING SYSTEM.

LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY. NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH SHOWERS.

WINDS WL PROVIDE PRIMARY OP IMPACT SAT NGT-SUN...AS AN ELEVATED CORE
OF 40+ KT WNDS CROSS TERMINALS. THE LLJ WL RESIDE ABT 2K FT ABV SFC.
SHUD HV 25-30KT GUSTS IN NW FLOW AT GRND LVL...MAYBE A LTL HIER THAN
THAT SUN MRNG-MIDDAY. ANY CIGS WUD BE MVFR-VFR SAT NGT AND SHUD CLR
BY/SOON AFTR SUNRISE SUN MRNG.

VFR SUN AFTN INTO TUE.

&&

.MARINE...

EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS UNDER SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES WEST AND SOUTH OF
THE AREA.

WITH THE STRENGTHENING LOW MOVING OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY...SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL BE MET WITH NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO
AROUND 30 KT.

GRADIENT INCREASES SAT NGT. AM NOT CERTAIN IF GALE CONDITIONS WL
ENCOMPASS ENTIRE MARINE AREA...BUT IT SHUD HIT A MAJORITY OF IT.
CONDS WOULD CONT INTO SUN BEFORE THE GRADIENT RELAXES AND WNDS
SUBSIDE. SCA CONDS PROGGED TO HOLD ON THRU SUN NGT PER CURRENT
FCST.

AS HIPRES BLDS ELY NEXT WEEK...NO HAZARDS EXPECTED AT THAT TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY
MORNING AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. POSITIVE DEPARTURES UP TO A HALF FOOT ON THE
WATERS ATTM...AND THESE MAY INCREASE A LITTLE BIT MORE THROUGH
TONIGHT. TIDAL FLOODING ISSUES WOULD ONLY OCCUR IF DEPARTURES
EXCEEDED A FOOT. AT THIS POINT...SUSPECT THAT WONT HAPPEN.

BLOWOUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...HTS/ADS






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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 311408
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1008 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUICK UPDATE TO FCST TO INCRS CLDNS THIS MRNG ACRS CNTRL/ERN
PORTIONS OF FA.

PREV DISCUSSION...
MID-MRNG SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS VERY WK HI PRES INVOF CNTRL MTNS...W/
A LINGERING FNTL BNDRY OFF THE CST...AND A PROGRESSIVE BAROCLINIC
WAVE TRACKING ALONG THE BNDRY. ALSO...ONE S/W ALOFT MOVING
THROUGH THE LWR OH VLY...AND A 2ND (STRONGER) ONE DIVING SE
THROUGH THE WRN LAKES STATES.

TDA BEGINS COOL AND MCLDY (W/ EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SW
PIEDMONT)...WITH A CLEARING LINE TRACKING FROM SSW-NNE AS THE LOW
PULLS FARTHER NE. INITIAL S/W CARVES OUT TROUGH INTO INTERIOR SE
CONUS STATES AND AWAITS ARRIVAL OF THE 2ND S/W FM THE NNW. VERY WK
SFC HI PRES RMNS IN PLACE LONG ENOUGH FOR A MNLY DRY DAY ACRS THE
FA. COMBO OF SYS E AND W OF THE FA WILL RESULT IN VRB CLDS TO
PCLDY CONDS MOST PLACES THIS AFTN. WILL HAVE SLGT CHC TO LO END
CHC POPS RIGHT ALG THE IMMEDIATE CST IN SE VA/NE NC THIS AFTN AS
THE SFC LO TRACKS OFF THE CST. HI TEMPS FM THE U50S NNW TO 60 TO
65F ELSW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG S/W WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH FROM THE TN VALLEY ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH TNGT...THEN THROUGH THE CAROLINAS ON SAT. CONTD
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT DEPICTING UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF OVER THE
CAROLINAS MIDDAY SAT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SPIN-UP SECONDARY
CYCLOGENESIS OFFSHORE OF THE NC COAST SAT AFTN/EVE...BEFORE
QUICKLY EJECTING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE SAT NGT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. COOL 1030+MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE EAST FROM
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

00Z/31 SUITE OF MODELS RMN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT RAIN WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE TNGT THROUGH SATURDAY. BREEZY OVERALL
ON SATURDAY...WITH BEST SURGE OF CAA LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL SAT
NGT. GIVEN FCST OF HOW FAR S UPR LVL SYS TRACKS...MOST SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS (BOTH WND AND RA) APR TO BE OVER FOR ERN/SERN CSTL
LOCATIONS (PRIMARILY) FM MIDDAY SAT INTO EARLY SAT EVENING.
ADDITIONALLY, A PERIOD OF STRONG NNE WNDS (35-45 MPH) EXPECTED
ALONG COASTAL ZONES W/AREAS OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG THE ATLC
BEACHES AND LWR CHES BAY (SEE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BLO). WILL
CONT TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN HWO. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED OVER AT LEAST SOME OF OUR COASTAL ZONES SAT NGT FOR A 6-10
HOUR PERIOD IF CURRENT FORECAST RATIONALE PANS OUT.

PCPN WILL TAPER OFF SAT NGT W/ SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING WAVE...AND SKY CLEARS OUT QUICKLY INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS
SURFACE HIGH OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SINKS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE SOUTHEAST BEGINNING SUNDAY. THIS WILL USHER IN THE COOLEST AIR
OF THE SEASON TO DATE.

WRT QPF...MOST INLAND PLACES MAY HAVE AVG AMOUNTS LESS THAN 0.25
IN...W/ HIGHER AMOUNTS (TO 0.50 TO PSBLY 0.75 IN) MNLY CONFINED TO
CLOSE TO THE CST.

FOR TEMPERATURES...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND INCREASING RAIN CHCS
WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 50S FOR MOST ON SATURDAY...THOUGH TEMPS MAY
NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 40S WELL INLAND. WELL MIXED ATMOS/BREEZY-
WINDY CONDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT STILL CHILLY WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 30S INLAND TO
LOW 40S ALONG THE COAST. DESPITE A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...ONGOING LO
LVL CAA WILL KEEP HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 50S...OR ROUGHLY -1 TO -1.5
STD DEV FROM CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. BY
MONDAY MORNING LOWS SHOULD FALL TO AROUND 30-32 FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA (UPPER 20S POSSIBLE IN FAVORED COLD SPOTS)...WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER VALUES (35-40) FOR FAR SE PORTIONS. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES THIS FALL ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA. A SLOW MODERATING TREND IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD
RANGE FROM 55-60...WITH MID/UPPER 60S POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN RATHER COOL TUESDAY MORNING
RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 30S INTERIOR TO LOW 40S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS. LOWS SHOULD MODERATE INTO THE MID 40S/LOW 50S WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH THE HIGH WELL OFFSHORE AND THE RESUMPTION OF SSW FLOW.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND TRACKS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME MOISTURE APPEARS RATHER LIMITED WITH
THIS FRONT...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS ARE INCLUDED AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH DISSIPATES OVER THE
REGION THIS AFTN WHILE SETTING UP A WEAK WEDGE THAT...DUE TO THE
RESULTING NE FLOW...MAY CAUSE SOME MVFR CEILINGS TO OCCUR AT
KORF/KPHF/KECG THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO TODAY...A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A FEW
SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE NE NC/SE VA COAST...BUT RAIN CHANCES ARE
TOO LOW ATTM TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS.

STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OH AND THEN TN
RIVER VALLEYS INTO SAT. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP FORM A STRONG
COASTAL SYSTEM OFF THE OUTER BANKS LATE SAT INTO SUN. AS THIS
SYSTEM DEEPENS AND MOVES OFF THE COAST...20-30 KT N WINDS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WATCHES SAT NGT HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO WARNINGS FOLLOWING
INCREASED CONFIDENCE AND COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. FOR
TDA...NE WINDS UP TO ~15 KT EXPECTED AS LO PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE SE
CST. THOUGH NOT LIKELY...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
SCA CONDITIONS OVR THE BAY. WINDS BCM NLY TNGT WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS
AS THE LO PASSES OFFSHORE AND ANOTHER LO PRES CENTER DEVELOPS NEAR
THE NC/SC CST. ON SAT...WINDS/WAVES/SEAS INCREASE AS THAT SECOND
AREA OF LO PRES STRENGTHENS OFF THE NC CST IN RESPONSE TO A VERY
POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF. MAINTAINED THE SCA OVR NRN CSTL
WTRS BEFORE THE GALE AS A PERIOD OF 5 FT SEAS IS EXPECTED
THERE...WHILE CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE WILL RAMP UP FAST ENUF TO JUST
WARRANT A GALE HEADLINE. CONDITIONS OVR THE RIVERS OTHER THAN THE
LWR JAMES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY SUB-GALE SO A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED
THERE. BRIEF WINDS CLOSE TO STORM FORCE ARE PSBL OVR SRN CSTL
WTRS...BUT WITH THE SPEED AND TRACK OF THE SFC LO...EXPECT WINDS TO
STAY MAINLY IN THE GALE RANGE. STRONGEST WINDS OVR THE
BAY/SOUND/CSTL WTRS (30-40 KT SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO 40-45 KT) WILL
OCCUR SAT NGT...AND SLOWLY DIMINISH ON SUN AS THE LO PULLS WELL NE
OF THE AREA. EXPECT 4-6 FT WAVES OVR THE BAY AND SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS
UP TO 10-12 FT. HI PRES BLDS OVR THE AREA SUN NGT AND MON AND THEN
SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE ERLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...WITH SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN OFF THE COAST LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 1-1.5 FT
ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
AND LOWER BAY. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR THESE LOCATIONS
IF THE SURGE COINCIDES WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM EDT SATURDAY TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ635>637.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM EDT SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ630>634-638.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM EDT SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MAM
NEAR TERM...ALB/AJZ
SHORT TERM...ALB/MAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ





000
FXUS61 KLWX 311237
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
837 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY. DEEP
LOW PRESSURE WILL DESCEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES...CROSSING THE
CAROLINAS SATURDAY BEFORE STRENGTHENING ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN INTO MONDAY FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

W.V. STLT IMGRY SHOWS SHORT WV HAS PUSHED INTO WI. THIS WILL DIVE
TO SC AS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN UNDERGOES SUBSTANTIAL AMPLIFICATION
AND NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS PHASE OFFSHORE. SURFACE LOW IS WEAK AT
THIS TIME AND WILL LOSE DEFINITION AS ENERGY EVENTUALLY TRANSFERS
A COASTAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON SATURDAY. WITH SUCH A
SOUTHWARD TRAJECTORY...FORCING WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE MOUNTAINS
FOR THE FIRST STAGE OF THIS SYSTEM. SOME RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON THERE BUT MUCH OF CENTRAL MD AND VA WILL BE IN A
SQUEEZE PLAY UNTIL TONIGHT OR SATURDAY WHEN THE SYSTEM WINDS UP
AND BROAD SCALE LIFT WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AREA-WIDE.
HOWEVER...ANY HEAVIER PRECIPITATION FROM THE COASTAL LOW WILL
LIKELY REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.

IN TERMS OF ANY SNOWFALL...AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY COLD ADVECTION
WILL BE VERY MINIMAL WITH THIS OCCLUDED SYSTEM. AN ANALYSIS OF
SOUNDINGS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESS SUGGEST THAT ANY SNOW WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE VERY HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF WV...AND MOSTLY AS A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AT THAT. THE SNOW WILL BE FAVORED DURING DIURNAL
MINIMUMS IN TEMPERATURE AND ANY SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS TO NEAR 60 IN THE LOWLANDS. LOWS TONIGHT TEMPERED BY
CLOUD COVER IN RANGING FROM THE MID 30S HIGHLANDS TO MID 40S EAST.
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE ON SATURDAY AND WILL LIMIT HIGHS A BIT MORE THERE...WELL INTO
THE 40S. STILL NEAR 50 TO THE EAST. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS OFF THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

BY SAT NGT...S/WV ENERGY WUD HV SHIFTED OFF THE ATLC CST...INDUCING
CYCLOGENESIS SOMEWHERE OFF CAPE HATTERAS. IN TERMS OF PCPN E OF THE
APLCHNS...THAT PRETTY MUCH WL MARK THE END...AS DRIER AIR WL WORK IN
ON THE NW SIDE OF THE CYCLONE. HV OPTED TO HOLD ONTO MORE CLDS THAN
GFS INDICATING...PARTLY DUE TO TIMING/UNCERTAINTY DIFFS AND THE
OTHER PART DUE TO LOW H5 HGTS/PVA STILL PIVOTING ACRS CWFA. WINDS
MAY BE THE BIGGEST IMPACT...BUT THE NOCTURNAL TIMING MAY PREVENT THE
FULL 30-40 KT AVBL H9-8 FM MIXING DOWN. WL BE KEEPING GUSTS 25-30
MPH.

ACRS THE MTNS...THE AMS WL BE COOLING SUFFICIENTLY FOR SOME SNOW.
HWVR...THE BEST DYNAMIC COOLING WL PASS S OF AREA. THIS LEAVES ONLY
A MARGINALLY FVRBL AMS W/ WARM GRND. HV TRIMMED SNW TTLS BACK A LTL.
WL KEEP HWO MENTION...AS ITS NOT OUT OF THE QSTN THAT ACCUMS
POTENTIALLY CUD YIELD AN ADVY. DECISIONS WL BE MADE AS EVENT NEARS.

H8-5 RDGG BLDS QUITE QUICKLY SUNDAY...SHUTTING OFF UPSLP SHSN.
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WL ERODE MOST OF THE CLDS DURING THE MRNG. THE INCRSG
SUBSIDENCE WL TAKE CARE OF THE MTNS BY MIDDAY. WL HV A TIGHT P-GRAD
OVER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...AND BETTER MIXING. GFS QUITE
ENTHUSIASTIC ON 35-40 KT WNDS. THAT REMAINS TO BE SEEN...BUT DO HV
30-35 MPH GUSTS IN GRIDS.

AM PRESERVING A GOOD AMT OF FCST CONTINUITY FOR TEMP FCSTS THRU THIS
PD. BIGGEST CHG COMES SAT NGT...AS THE STRONG GRADIENT SUGGESTS THAT
ANY TEMP LOSS WL PRIMARILY BE ADVECTIVE. THAT MEANS MIN-T IN THE 30S
AREAWIDE SAT NGT/SUN MRNG...AND TEMPS STRUGGLING TO REACH 50F SUN
AFTN.

RDGG BLDS OVER AREA SUN NGT...W/ ALL THE ASSOCD FEATURES-- CLR
SKIES/DCPLG WNDS/DEWPTS IN THE 20S. ITS LOOKING LIKE A HARD FREEZE
FOR MOST OF THE CWFA XCPT FOR THE URBAN DOWNTOWNS AND COMMUNITIES
NEAR THE BAY. THAT LIKELY WL MARK THE END OF THE GROWING SEASON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE HIGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND NEAR THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY
SOME DURING THE DAY BUT REMAIN A LITTLE ON THE CHILLY SIDE MONDAY
NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO GRADUALLY SLIDE INTO THE REGION AND BRING A
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS. PRECIP TIMING HAS BEEN PUSHED BACK TO
WED-WED NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND TONIGHT
BUT ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY WEST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH MOST
OF THIS PERIOD. A VFR CEILING MAY BE PREVALENT WITH VERY FEW BREAKS
WITH THE APPRAOCHING SYSTEM.

AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY...NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH SHOWERS.

WINDS WL PROVIDE PRIMARY OP IMPACT SAT NGT-SUN...AS AN ELEVATED CORE
OF 40+ KT WNDS CROSS TERMINALS. THE LLJ WL RESIDE ABT 2K FT ABV SFC.
SHUD HV 25-30KT GUSTS IN NW FLOW AT GRND LVL...MAYBE A LTL HIER THAN
THAT SUN MRNG-MIDDAY. ANY CIGS WUD BE MVFR-VFR SAT NGT AND SHUD CLR
BY/SOON AFTR SUNRISE SUN MRNG.

VFR SUN AFTN INTO TUE.

&&

.MARINE...

EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS UNDER SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES WEST AND SOUTH OF
THE AREA. WITH THE STRENGTHENING LOW MOVING OFF THE COAST ON
SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL BE MET WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
GUSTING TO AROUND 30 KT.

GRADIENT INCREASES SAT NGT. AM NOT CERTAIN IF GLW WL ENCOMPASS
ENTIRE MARINE AREA...BUT IT SHUD HIT A MAJORITY OF IT. SINCE THE GLW
WUD MEANS A HEADLINE RAMP-UP IN THE 4TH PD...HV OPTED TO NOT ISSUE
ATTM PER POLICY. NONETHELESS...THE OPEN WATERS OF THE MID BAY SHUD
EXPERIENCE 35-40 KT GUSTS. CONDS WUD CONT INTO SUN BEFORE THE
GRADIENT RELAXES AND WNDS SUBSIDE. SCA CONDS PROGGED TO HOLD ON THRU
SUN NGT PER CURRENT FCST.

AS HIPRES BLDS ELY NEXT WEEK...NO HAZARDS EXPECTED AT THAT TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY
MORNING AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. POSITIVE DEPARTURES UP TO A HALF FOOT ON THE
WATERS ATTM...AND THESE MAY INCREASE A LITTLE BIT MORE THROUGH
TONIGHT. TIDAL FLOODING ISSUES WOULD ONLY OCCUR IF DEPARTURES
EXCEEDED A FOOT. AT THIS POINT...SUSPECT THAT WONT HAPPEN.

BLOWOUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...HTS/ADS







  [top]

000
FXUS61 KRNK 311148
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
748 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE FROM CANADA MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINTER STORM CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY IN THE HIGH COUNTRY OF NORTH CAROLINA...AND INTO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF FAR WESTERN VIRGINIA VICINITY OF MOUNT ROGERS
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FEET WILL SEE THE
GREATEST WINTRY IMPACT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...

TRICK OR TREAT. THE LAST DAY OF OCTOBER...ALTHOUGH QUIET AND NEAR
NORMAL FEELING AT THE MOMENT...WILL CHANGE INTO A DIFFERENT
COSTUME BEFORE THE END OF THE DAY. SKIES WILL START OFF RELATIVELY
BRIGHT PER LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE...BUT AS THE HIGH FADES TO OUR
EAST...SKIES WILL DARKEN FROM THE WEST AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THIS AFTERNOON
WITH ONSET OF LIGHT RAIN ANTICIPATED OVER THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 2PM
AND THEN MOVING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE SEASONALLY COOL...BUT WILL FALL 5 TO 8 DEGREES SHORT
OF OUR NORMAL HIGH FOR THE DATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT FRIDAY...

IF YOU ARE LOOKING FOR THE GREAT PUMPKIN I THINK YOU ARE IN FOR A
TRICK INSTEAD OF A TREAT. THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEKEND WILL BE
WEARING A SCARY COSTUME...COURTESY OF THE MANITOBA MAULER (LOW
PRESSURE COMING FROM THE CANADIAN PROVINCE OF MANITOBA). THIS FAST
MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL DIVE SOUTH FASTER THAN A HEADLESS HORSEMAN TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST
AND A STRONG SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OFFSHORE. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE
WEATHER IMPACTS, EXPECT MUCH COLDER WEATHER BY SATURDAY WITH
RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA HIGH COUNTRY AND INTO THE
MOUNTAINS OF FAR SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA. WINTER STORM WARNINGS HAVE
BEEN POSTED WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY
FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FEET. MODELS INDICATE THE CHANGE FROM
RAIN TO SNOW AT THESE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL TAKE PLACE AROUND THE
WITCHING HOUR TONIGHT. BOO.

WITH THE UPPER LOW HOVERING OVERHEAD SATURDAY...GOOSE BUMPS WILL
BE COMMON AS MUCH COLDER AIR GETS UNLEASHED VIA BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS. 85H TEMPS PLUNGE TO NEAR M6 DEG C IN THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH
CAROLINA WHERE A WINTRY PRANK WILL PLAY OUT DURING THE DAY WITH
THE HIGHER ELEVATION LANDSCAPE BECOMING MASKED IN A LAYER OF
WHITE. THE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS PROGGED TO PASS
DIRECTLY OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY OF NC AND THIS SHOULD BE GROUND
ZERO FOR SNOW WHICH WILL ACCUMULATE 3 TO 6 INCHES BEFORE ALL IS
SAID AND DONE SATURDAY NIGHT. OUTSIDE OF THIS HIGHER IMPACT
AREA...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LESS. WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST VA INCLUDING MOUNT
ROGERS...WHICH MAY RECEIVE SIMILAR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW...THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA APPEARS TO BE TOO WARM TO PARTAKE
IN MUCH IF ANY ACCUMULATION. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHLANDS OF WEST VIRGINIA AND INTO THE ALLEGHANY
HIGHLANDS OF VA...BUT NOT UNTIL THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES LATER
SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS ALL MOUNTAIN ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT. EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...THICKNESSES REMAIN
ABOVE CRITICAL SUPPORTING NOTHING BUT A COLD RAIN FOR THE DURATION
OF THE EVENT. RAIN WILL COME TO AN END EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS
STRONG DOWNSLOPE DRYING BEGINS PER INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS
IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM. LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF FOR THE
EVENT IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM ABOUT A QUARTER /0.25/ OF AN INCH
IN THE NORTHEAST CWA (LYNCHBURG-BUCKINGHAM)...TO NEAR ONE INCH
/1.00/ IN THE SOUTHWEST (BLUEFIELD-BOONE).

A WINTER SHIVER WILL BE FELT THROUGHOUT THE MID ATLANTIC SATURDAY
NIGHT...READINGS DIPPING INTO THE L-M20S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND
LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. TEMPERATURES
WILL STRUGGLE SUNDAY IN SPITE OF ANY CLEARING...AND SET THE STAGE
FOR A WIDER-SPREAD KILLING FREEZE SUNDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES
DIPPING AT OR BELOW 32 FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.

WINDS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE THE STRONGEST IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE...RAMPING UP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING INTO THE DAY SUNDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER SUNDAY.
ADVISORY SORT OF GUSTS...NEAR 40 KTS...ARE LIKELY VCNTY OF THE
BLUE RIDGE SATURDAY EVENING. WIND TRAJECTORIES FROM 340 DEGREES
ALSO SUGGEST STRONG CROSS WINDS LIKELY ALONG I-77 VCNTY OF FANCY
GAP.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK...HEIGHTS RISING AT 500 MB MONDAY AND TUESDAY RESULTING IN A
RETURN TO SEASONABLY NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FLOW PATTERN DURING THE
WEEK THEN EVOLVES INTO A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE UNITED
STATES BY WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY BRING A SHORT WAVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN STREAM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO INCREASING AS
THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS SHOWING A
BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY.
WILL BE INCREASING THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR
OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 800 AM EDT FRIDAY...

EXPECT VFR AT ALL PRIMARY TAF SITES THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME
MVFR CIGS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP VCNTY OF THE TERMINALS NEAR THE
THE MOUNTAINS. MAY NEED TO AMEND SOME OF THE TAFS PENDING TRENDS
NEXT FEW HOURS.

OVERALL EXPECTATION IS FOR INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY TODAY AND IS PROGGED BY ALL MODELS TO LEAD TO SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS LEE OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...THIS
FEATURE DEEPENING RAPIDLY AS IT PASSES OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST SATURDAY.

LOOK FOR THICKENING AND LOWERING OF CLOUD BASES TODAY WITH ONSET
OF RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 18Z/2PM...SPREADING EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS INTO THE PIEDMONT BY 00Z/8PM THIS EVENING. RAIN WILL
BECOME MODERATE AT TIMES WITH CIGS LOWERING THROUGH MVFR CATEGORY
BETWEEN 18Z/2PM TO 00Z/8PM TIME FRAME...THEN INTO THE IFR CATEGORY
TONIGHT. THIS VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN LOWERING
FREEZING LEVELS WITH TIME...PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO SNOW OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TONIGHT.

DURING THE OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY AFTER MIDNIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE
THAT PTYPE CHANGE WILL OCCUR OVER THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE
APPALACHIAN DIVIDE...FROM BLUEFIELD WV (KBLF) TO BOONE NORTH
CAROLINA (KTNB). THIS AREA WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE MAJORITY OF THE
WINTRY PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL PLAY OUT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NC/TN
MTNS ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE SMOKIES. LIFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

AS CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE AND THE STORM MOVES TO THE COAST
SATURDAY...STRONG PRESSURE RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING WIND SPEEDS. GUSTS OF 25 TO 40 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE VCNTY OF THE MTNS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
STRONG GUSTS CONTINUING INTO THE DAY SUNDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA SUNDAY...WINDS GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE AREA...CONDITIONS REMAINING VFR.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE AC UNITS FOR THE RADAR SHELTER ARE BAD. RADAR OPERATION WILL
BE INTERMITTENT UNTIL SUCH TIME THE AC UNITS ARE FIXED.
IF SHELTER TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS WE WILL PLACE
THE RADAR INTO STANDBY TO AVOID DAMAGE TO THE TRANSMITTER.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR VAZ007-009-015.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...PM
EQUIPMENT...PM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 311057
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
657 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUICK UPDATE TO FCST TO INCRS CLDNS THIS MRNG ACRS CNTRL/ERN
PORTIONS OF FA.

PREV DISCUSSION...
EARLY MRNG SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED VERY WK HI PRES INVOF CNTRL
MTNS...W/ A LINGERING FNTL BNDRY OFF THE CST. ALSO...ONE S/W ALOFT
MOVING THROUGH THE LWR OH VLY...AND A 2ND (STRONGER) ONE DIVING SE
THROUGH THE WRN LAKES STATES.

TDA BEGINS CHILLY (XCP RIGHT AT THE IMMEDIATE CST IN SE VA/NE NC)
AND MNLY SKC (W/ EXCEPTION TO FAR NNW AND INVOF CSTL NE NC).
INITIAL S/W CARVES OUT TROUGH INTO INTERIOR SE CONUS STATES AND
AWAITS ARRIVAL OF THE 2ND S/W FM THE NNW. VERY WK SFC HI PRES RMNS
IN PLACE LONG ENOUGH FOR A MNLY DRY DAY ACRS THE FA. WK SFC LO
PRES DEVELOPS INVOF STALLED FNT OFF THE SE CONUS CST THIS MRNG
WHICH LIFTS TO THE NE THROUGH THE AFTN. COMBO OF SYS E AND W OF
THE FA WILL RESULT IN VRB CLDS TO PCLDY CONDS MOST PLACES THIS
AFTN. WILL HAVE SLGT CHC TO LO END CHC POPS RIGHT ALG THE
IMMEDIATE CST IN SE VA/NE NC THIS AFTN AS THE SFC LO TRACKS OFF
THE CST. HI TEMPS FM THE U50S NNW TO 60 TO 65F ELSW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG S/W WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH FROM THE TN VALLEY ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH TNGT...THEN THROUGH THE CAROLINAS ON SAT. CONTD
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT DEPICTING UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF OVER THE
CAROLINAS MIDDAY SAT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SPIN-UP SECONDARY
CYCLOGENESIS OFFSHORE OF THE NC COAST SAT AFTN/EVE...BEFORE
QUICKLY EJECTING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE SAT NGT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. COOL 1030+MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE EAST FROM
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

00Z/31 SUITE OF MODELS RMN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT RAIN WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE TNGT THROUGH SATURDAY. BREEZY OVERALL
ON SATURDAY...WITH BEST SURGE OF CAA LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL SAT
NGT. GIVEN FCST OF HOW FAR S UPR LVL SYS TRACKS...MOST SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS (BOTH WND AND RA) APR TO BE OVER FOR ERN/SERN CSTL
LOCATIONS (PRIMARILY) FM MIDDAY SAT INTO EARLY SAT EVENING.
ADDITIONALLY, A PERIOD OF STRONG NNE WNDS (35-45 MPH) EXPECTED
ALONG COASTAL ZONES W/AREAS OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG THE ATLC
BEACHES AND LWR CHES BAY (SEE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BLO). WILL
CONT TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN HWO. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED OVER AT LEAST SOME OF OUR COASTAL ZONES SAT NGT FOR A 6-10
HOUR PERIOD IF CURRENT FORECAST RATIONALE PANS OUT.

PCPN WILL TAPER OFF SAT NGT W/ SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING WAVE...AND SKY CLEARS OUT QUICKLY INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS
SURFACE HIGH OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SINKS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE SOUTHEAST BEGINNING SUNDAY. THIS WILL USHER IN THE COOLEST AIR
OF THE SEASON TO DATE.

WRT QPF...MOST INLAND PLACES MAY HAVE AVG AMOUNTS LESS THAN 0.25
IN...W/ HIGHER AMOUNTS (TO 0.50 TO PSBLY 0.75 IN) MNLY CONFINED TO
CLOSE TO THE CST.

FOR TEMPERATURES...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND INCREASING RAIN CHCS
WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 50S FOR MOST ON SATURDAY...THOUGH TEMPS MAY
NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 40S WELL INLAND. WELL MIXED ATMOS/BREEZY-
WINDY CONDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT STILL CHILLY WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 30S INLAND TO
LOW 40S ALONG THE COAST. DESPITE A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...ONGOING LO
LVL CAA WILL KEEP HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 50S...OR ROUGHLY -1 TO -1.5
STD DEV FROM CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. BY
MONDAY MORNING LOWS SHOULD FALL TO AROUND 30-32 FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA (UPPER 20S POSSIBLE IN FAVORED COLD SPOTS)...WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER VALUES (35-40) FOR FAR SE PORTIONS. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES THIS FALL ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA. A SLOW MODERATING TREND IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD
RANGE FROM 55-60...WITH MID/UPPER 60S POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN RATHER COOL TUESDAY MORNING
RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 30S INTERIOR TO LOW 40S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS. LOWS SHOULD MODERATE INTO THE MID 40S/LOW 50S WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH THE HIGH WELL OFFSHORE AND THE RESUMPTION OF SSW FLOW.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND TRACKS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME MOISTURE APPEARS RATHER LIMITED WITH
THIS FRONT...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS ARE INCLUDED AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH DISSIPATES OVER THE
REGION THIS AFTN WHILE SETTING UP A WEAK WEDGE THAT...DUE TO THE
RESULTING NE FLOW...MAY CAUSE SOME MVFR CEILINGS TO OCCUR AT
KORF/KPHF/KECG THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO TODAY...A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A FEW
SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE NE NC/SE VA COAST...BUT RAIN CHANCES ARE
TOO LOW ATTM TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS.

STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OH AND THEN TN
RIVER VALLEYS INTO SAT. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP FORM A STRONG
COASTAL SYSTEM OFF THE OUTER BANKS LATE SAT INTO SUN. AS THIS
SYSTEM DEEPENS AND MOVES OFF THE COAST...20-30 KT N WINDS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WATCHES SAT NGT HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO WARNINGS FOLLOWING
INCREASED CONFIDENCE AND COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. FOR
TDA...NE WINDS UP TO ~15 KT EXPECTED AS LO PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE SE
CST. THOUGH NOT LIKELY...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
SCA CONDITIONS OVR THE BAY. WINDS BCM NLY TNGT WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS
AS THE LO PASSES OFFSHORE AND ANOTHER LO PRES CENTER DEVELOPS NEAR
THE NC/SC CST. ON SAT...WINDS/WAVES/SEAS INCREASE AS THAT SECOND
AREA OF LO PRES STRENGTHENS OFF THE NC CST IN RESPONSE TO A VERY
POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF. MAINTAINED THE SCA OVR NRN CSTL
WTRS BEFORE THE GALE AS A PERIOD OF 5 FT SEAS IS EXPECTED
THERE...WHILE CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE WILL RAMP UP FAST ENUF TO JUST
WARRANT A GALE HEADLINE. CONDITIONS OVR THE RIVERS OTHER THAN THE
LWR JAMES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY SUB-GALE SO A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED
THERE. BRIEF WINDS CLOSE TO STORM FORCE ARE PSBL OVR SRN CSTL
WTRS...BUT WITH THE SPEED AND TRACK OF THE SFC LO...EXPECT WINDS TO
STAY MAINLY IN THE GALE RANGE. STRONGEST WINDS OVR THE
BAY/SOUND/CSTL WTRS (30-40 KT SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO 40-45 KT) WILL
OCCUR SAT NGT...AND SLOWLY DIMINISH ON SUN AS THE LO PULLS WELL NE
OF THE AREA. EXPECT 4-6 FT WAVES OVR THE BAY AND SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS
UP TO 10-12 FT. HI PRES BLDS OVR THE AREA SUN NGT AND MON AND THEN
SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE ERLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...WITH SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN OFF THE COAST LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 1-1.5 FT
ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
AND LOWER BAY. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR THESE LOCATIONS
IF THE SURGE COINCIDES WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM EDT SATURDAY TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ635>637.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM EDT SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ630>634-638.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM EDT SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MAM
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/MAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 311054
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
654 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MRNG SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED VERY WK HI PRES INVOF CNTRL
MTNS...W/ A LINGERING FNTL BNDRY OFF THE CST. ALSO...ONE S/W ALOFT
MOVING THROUGH THE LWR OH VLY...AND A 2ND (STRONGER) ONE DIVING SE
THROUGH THE WRN LAKES STATES.

TDA BEGINS CHILLY (XCP RIGHT AT THE IMMEDIATE CST IN SE VA/NE NC)
AND MNLY SKC (W/ EXCEPTION TO FAR NNW AND INVOF CSTL NE NC).
INITIAL S/W CARVES OUT TROUGH INTO INTERIOR SE CONUS STATES AND
AWAITS ARRIVAL OF THE 2ND S/W FM THE NNW. VERY WK SFC HI PRES RMNS
IN PLACE LONG ENOUGH FOR A MNLY DRY DAY ACRS THE FA. WK SFC LO
PRES DEVELOPS INVOF STALLED FNT OFF THE SE CONUS CST THIS MRNG
WHICH LIFTS TO THE NE THROUGH THE AFTN. COMBO OF SYS E AND W OF
THE FA WILL RESULT IN VRB CLDS TO PCLDY CONDS MOST PLACES THIS
AFTN. WILL HAVE SLGT CHC TO LO END CHC POPS RIGHT ALG THE
IMMEDIATE CST IN SE VA/NE NC THIS AFTN AS THE SFC LO TRACKS OFF
THE CST. HI TEMPS FM THE U50S NNW TO 60 TO 65F ELSW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG S/W WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH FROM THE TN VALLEY ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH TNGT...THEN THROUGH THE CAROLINAS ON SAT. CONTD
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT DEPICTING UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF OVER THE
CAROLINAS MIDDAY SAT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SPIN-UP SECONDARY
CYCLOGENESIS OFFSHORE OF THE NC COAST SAT AFTN/EVE...BEFORE
QUICKLY EJECTING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE SAT NGT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. COOL 1030+MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE EAST FROM
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

00Z/31 SUITE OF MODELS RMN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT RAIN WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE TNGT THROUGH SATURDAY. BREEZY OVERALL
ON SATURDAY...WITH BEST SURGE OF CAA LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL SAT
NGT. GIVEN FCST OF HOW FAR S UPR LVL SYS TRACKS...MOST SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS (BOTH WND AND RA) APR TO BE OVER FOR ERN/SERN CSTL
LOCATIONS (PRIMARILY) FM MIDDAY SAT INTO EARLY SAT EVENING.
ADDITIONALLY, A PERIOD OF STRONG NNE WNDS (35-45 MPH) EXPECTED
ALONG COASTAL ZONES W/AREAS OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG THE ATLC
BEACHES AND LWR CHES BAY (SEE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BLO). WILL
CONT TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN HWO. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED OVER AT LEAST SOME OF OUR COASTAL ZONES SAT NGT FOR A 6-10
HOUR PERIOD IF CURRENT FORECAST RATIONALE PANS OUT.

PCPN WILL TAPER OFF SAT NGT W/ SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING WAVE...AND SKY CLEARS OUT QUICKLY INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS
SURFACE HIGH OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SINKS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE SOUTHEAST BEGINNING SUNDAY. THIS WILL USHER IN THE COOLEST AIR
OF THE SEASON TO DATE.

WRT QPF...MOST INLAND PLACES MAY HAVE AVG AMOUNTS LESS THAN 0.25
IN...W/ HIGHER AMOUNTS (TO 0.50 TO PSBLY 0.75 IN) MNLY CONFINED TO
CLOSE TO THE CST.

FOR TEMPERATURES...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND INCREASING RAIN CHCS
WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 50S FOR MOST ON SATURDAY...THOUGH TEMPS MAY
NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 40S WELL INLAND. WELL MIXED ATMOS/BREEZY-
WINDY CONDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT STILL CHILLY WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 30S INLAND TO
LOW 40S ALONG THE COAST. DESPITE A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...ONGOING LO
LVL CAA WILL KEEP HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 50S...OR ROUGHLY -1 TO -1.5
STD DEV FROM CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. BY
MONDAY MORNING LOWS SHOULD FALL TO AROUND 30-32 FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA (UPPER 20S POSSIBLE IN FAVORED COLD SPOTS)...WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER VALUES (35-40) FOR FAR SE PORTIONS. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES THIS FALL ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA. A SLOW MODERATING TREND IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD
RANGE FROM 55-60...WITH MID/UPPER 60S POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN RATHER COOL TUESDAY MORNING
RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 30S INTERIOR TO LOW 40S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS. LOWS SHOULD MODERATE INTO THE MID 40S/LOW 50S WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH THE HIGH WELL OFFSHORE AND THE RESUMPTION OF SSW FLOW.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND TRACKS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME MOISTURE APPEARS RATHER LIMITED WITH
THIS FRONT...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS ARE INCLUDED AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH DISSIPATES OVER THE
REGION THIS AFTN WHILE SETTING UP A WEAK WEDGE THAT...DUE TO THE
RESULTING NE FLOW...MAY CAUSE SOME MVFR CEILINGS TO OCCUR AT
KORF/KPHF/KECG THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO TODAY...A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A FEW
SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE NE NC/SE VA COAST...BUT RAIN CHANCES ARE
TOO LOW ATTM TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS.

STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OH AND THEN TN
RIVER VALLEYS INTO SAT. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP FORM A STRONG
COASTAL SYSTEM OFF THE OUTER BANKS LATE SAT INTO SUN. AS THIS
SYSTEM DEEPENS AND MOVES OFF THE COAST...20-30 KT N WINDS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WATCHES SAT NGT HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO WARNINGS FOLLOWING
INCREASED CONFIDENCE AND COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. FOR
TDA...NE WINDS UP TO ~15 KT EXPECTED AS LO PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE SE
CST. THOUGH NOT LIKELY...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
SCA CONDITIONS OVR THE BAY. WINDS BCM NLY TNGT WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS
AS THE LO PASSES OFFSHORE AND ANOTHER LO PRES CENTER DEVELOPS NEAR
THE NC/SC CST. ON SAT...WINDS/WAVES/SEAS INCREASE AS THAT SECOND
AREA OF LO PRES STRENGTHENS OFF THE NC CST IN RESPONSE TO A VERY
POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF. MAINTAINED THE SCA OVR NRN CSTL
WTRS BEFORE THE GALE AS A PERIOD OF 5 FT SEAS IS EXPECTED
THERE...WHILE CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE WILL RAMP UP FAST ENUF TO JUST
WARRANT A GALE HEADLINE. CONDITIONS OVR THE RIVERS OTHER THAN THE
LWR JAMES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY SUB-GALE SO A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED
THERE. BRIEF WINDS CLOSE TO STORM FORCE ARE PSBL OVR SRN CSTL
WTRS...BUT WITH THE SPEED AND TRACK OF THE SFC LO...EXPECT WINDS TO
STAY MAINLY IN THE GALE RANGE. STRONGEST WINDS OVR THE
BAY/SOUND/CSTL WTRS (30-40 KT SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO 40-45 KT) WILL
OCCUR SAT NGT...AND SLOWLY DIMINISH ON SUN AS THE LO PULLS WELL NE
OF THE AREA. EXPECT 4-6 FT WAVES OVR THE BAY AND SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS
UP TO 10-12 FT. HI PRES BLDS OVR THE AREA SUN NGT AND MON AND THEN
SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE ERLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...WITH SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN OFF THE COAST LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 1-1.5 FT
ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
AND LOWER BAY. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR THESE LOCATIONS
IF THE SURGE COINCIDES WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM EDT SATURDAY TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ635>637.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM EDT SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ630>634-638.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM EDT SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MAM
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/MAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...









000
FXUS61 KAKQ 311054
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
654 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MRNG SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED VERY WK HI PRES INVOF CNTRL
MTNS...W/ A LINGERING FNTL BNDRY OFF THE CST. ALSO...ONE S/W ALOFT
MOVING THROUGH THE LWR OH VLY...AND A 2ND (STRONGER) ONE DIVING SE
THROUGH THE WRN LAKES STATES.

TDA BEGINS CHILLY (XCP RIGHT AT THE IMMEDIATE CST IN SE VA/NE NC)
AND MNLY SKC (W/ EXCEPTION TO FAR NNW AND INVOF CSTL NE NC).
INITIAL S/W CARVES OUT TROUGH INTO INTERIOR SE CONUS STATES AND
AWAITS ARRIVAL OF THE 2ND S/W FM THE NNW. VERY WK SFC HI PRES RMNS
IN PLACE LONG ENOUGH FOR A MNLY DRY DAY ACRS THE FA. WK SFC LO
PRES DEVELOPS INVOF STALLED FNT OFF THE SE CONUS CST THIS MRNG
WHICH LIFTS TO THE NE THROUGH THE AFTN. COMBO OF SYS E AND W OF
THE FA WILL RESULT IN VRB CLDS TO PCLDY CONDS MOST PLACES THIS
AFTN. WILL HAVE SLGT CHC TO LO END CHC POPS RIGHT ALG THE
IMMEDIATE CST IN SE VA/NE NC THIS AFTN AS THE SFC LO TRACKS OFF
THE CST. HI TEMPS FM THE U50S NNW TO 60 TO 65F ELSW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG S/W WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH FROM THE TN VALLEY ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH TNGT...THEN THROUGH THE CAROLINAS ON SAT. CONTD
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT DEPICTING UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF OVER THE
CAROLINAS MIDDAY SAT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SPIN-UP SECONDARY
CYCLOGENESIS OFFSHORE OF THE NC COAST SAT AFTN/EVE...BEFORE
QUICKLY EJECTING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE SAT NGT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. COOL 1030+MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE EAST FROM
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

00Z/31 SUITE OF MODELS RMN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT RAIN WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE TNGT THROUGH SATURDAY. BREEZY OVERALL
ON SATURDAY...WITH BEST SURGE OF CAA LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL SAT
NGT. GIVEN FCST OF HOW FAR S UPR LVL SYS TRACKS...MOST SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS (BOTH WND AND RA) APR TO BE OVER FOR ERN/SERN CSTL
LOCATIONS (PRIMARILY) FM MIDDAY SAT INTO EARLY SAT EVENING.
ADDITIONALLY, A PERIOD OF STRONG NNE WNDS (35-45 MPH) EXPECTED
ALONG COASTAL ZONES W/AREAS OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG THE ATLC
BEACHES AND LWR CHES BAY (SEE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BLO). WILL
CONT TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN HWO. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED OVER AT LEAST SOME OF OUR COASTAL ZONES SAT NGT FOR A 6-10
HOUR PERIOD IF CURRENT FORECAST RATIONALE PANS OUT.

PCPN WILL TAPER OFF SAT NGT W/ SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING WAVE...AND SKY CLEARS OUT QUICKLY INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS
SURFACE HIGH OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SINKS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE SOUTHEAST BEGINNING SUNDAY. THIS WILL USHER IN THE COOLEST AIR
OF THE SEASON TO DATE.

WRT QPF...MOST INLAND PLACES MAY HAVE AVG AMOUNTS LESS THAN 0.25
IN...W/ HIGHER AMOUNTS (TO 0.50 TO PSBLY 0.75 IN) MNLY CONFINED TO
CLOSE TO THE CST.

FOR TEMPERATURES...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND INCREASING RAIN CHCS
WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 50S FOR MOST ON SATURDAY...THOUGH TEMPS MAY
NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 40S WELL INLAND. WELL MIXED ATMOS/BREEZY-
WINDY CONDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT STILL CHILLY WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 30S INLAND TO
LOW 40S ALONG THE COAST. DESPITE A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...ONGOING LO
LVL CAA WILL KEEP HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 50S...OR ROUGHLY -1 TO -1.5
STD DEV FROM CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. BY
MONDAY MORNING LOWS SHOULD FALL TO AROUND 30-32 FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA (UPPER 20S POSSIBLE IN FAVORED COLD SPOTS)...WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER VALUES (35-40) FOR FAR SE PORTIONS. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES THIS FALL ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA. A SLOW MODERATING TREND IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD
RANGE FROM 55-60...WITH MID/UPPER 60S POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN RATHER COOL TUESDAY MORNING
RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 30S INTERIOR TO LOW 40S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS. LOWS SHOULD MODERATE INTO THE MID 40S/LOW 50S WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH THE HIGH WELL OFFSHORE AND THE RESUMPTION OF SSW FLOW.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND TRACKS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME MOISTURE APPEARS RATHER LIMITED WITH
THIS FRONT...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS ARE INCLUDED AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH DISSIPATES OVER THE
REGION THIS AFTN WHILE SETTING UP A WEAK WEDGE THAT...DUE TO THE
RESULTING NE FLOW...MAY CAUSE SOME MVFR CEILINGS TO OCCUR AT
KORF/KPHF/KECG THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO TODAY...A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A FEW
SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE NE NC/SE VA COAST...BUT RAIN CHANCES ARE
TOO LOW ATTM TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS.

STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OH AND THEN TN
RIVER VALLEYS INTO SAT. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP FORM A STRONG
COASTAL SYSTEM OFF THE OUTER BANKS LATE SAT INTO SUN. AS THIS
SYSTEM DEEPENS AND MOVES OFF THE COAST...20-30 KT N WINDS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WATCHES SAT NGT HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO WARNINGS FOLLOWING
INCREASED CONFIDENCE AND COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. FOR
TDA...NE WINDS UP TO ~15 KT EXPECTED AS LO PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE SE
CST. THOUGH NOT LIKELY...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
SCA CONDITIONS OVR THE BAY. WINDS BCM NLY TNGT WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS
AS THE LO PASSES OFFSHORE AND ANOTHER LO PRES CENTER DEVELOPS NEAR
THE NC/SC CST. ON SAT...WINDS/WAVES/SEAS INCREASE AS THAT SECOND
AREA OF LO PRES STRENGTHENS OFF THE NC CST IN RESPONSE TO A VERY
POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF. MAINTAINED THE SCA OVR NRN CSTL
WTRS BEFORE THE GALE AS A PERIOD OF 5 FT SEAS IS EXPECTED
THERE...WHILE CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE WILL RAMP UP FAST ENUF TO JUST
WARRANT A GALE HEADLINE. CONDITIONS OVR THE RIVERS OTHER THAN THE
LWR JAMES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY SUB-GALE SO A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED
THERE. BRIEF WINDS CLOSE TO STORM FORCE ARE PSBL OVR SRN CSTL
WTRS...BUT WITH THE SPEED AND TRACK OF THE SFC LO...EXPECT WINDS TO
STAY MAINLY IN THE GALE RANGE. STRONGEST WINDS OVR THE
BAY/SOUND/CSTL WTRS (30-40 KT SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO 40-45 KT) WILL
OCCUR SAT NGT...AND SLOWLY DIMINISH ON SUN AS THE LO PULLS WELL NE
OF THE AREA. EXPECT 4-6 FT WAVES OVR THE BAY AND SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS
UP TO 10-12 FT. HI PRES BLDS OVR THE AREA SUN NGT AND MON AND THEN
SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE ERLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...WITH SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN OFF THE COAST LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 1-1.5 FT
ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
AND LOWER BAY. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR THESE LOCATIONS
IF THE SURGE COINCIDES WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM EDT SATURDAY TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ635>637.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM EDT SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ630>634-638.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM EDT SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MAM
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/MAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...









000
FXUS61 KRNK 310902
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
502 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE FROM CANADA MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINTER STORM CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY IN THE HIGH COUNTRY OF NORTH CAROLINA...AND INTO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF FAR WESTERN VIRGINIA VICINITY OF MOUNT ROGERS
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FEET WILL SEE THE
GREATEST WINTRY IMPACT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...

TRICK OR TREAT. THE LAST DAY OF OCTOBER...ALTHOUGH QUIET AND NEAR
NORMAL FEELING AT THE MOMENT...WILL CHANGE INTO A DIFFERENT
COSTUME BEFORE THE END OF THE DAY. SKIES WILL START OFF RELATIVELY
BRIGHT PER LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE...BUT AS THE HIGH FADES TO OUR
EAST...SKIES WILL DARKEN FROM THE WEST AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THIS AFTERNOON
WITH ONSET OF LIGHT RAIN ANTICIPATED OVER THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 2PM
AND THEN MOVING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE SEASONALLY COOL...BUT WILL FALL 5 TO 8 DEGREES SHORT
OF OUR NORMAL HIGH FOR THE DATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT FRIDAY...

IF YOU ARE LOOKING FOR THE GREAT PUMPKIN I THINK YOU ARE IN FOR A
TRICK INSTEAD OF A TREAT. THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEKEND WILL BE
WEARING A SCARY COSTUME...COURTESY OF THE MANITOBA MAULER (LOW
PRESSURE COMING FROM THE CANADIAN PROVINCE OF MANITOBA). THIS FAST
MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL DIVE SOUTH FASTER THAN A HEADLESS HORSEMAN TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST
AND A STRONG SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OFFSHORE. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE
WEATHER IMPACTS, EXPECT MUCH COLDER WEATHER BY SATURDAY WITH
RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA HIGH COUNTRY AND INTO THE
MOUNTAINS OF FAR SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA. WINTER STORM WARNINGS HAVE
BEEN POSTED WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY
FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FEET. MODELS INDICATE THE CHANGE FROM
RAIN TO SNOW AT THESE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL TAKE PLACE AROUND THE
WITCHING HOUR TONIGHT. BOO.

WITH THE UPPER LOW HOVERING OVERHEAD SATURDAY...GOOSE BUMPS WILL
BE COMMON AS MUCH COLDER AIR GETS UNLEASHED VIA BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS. 85H TEMPS PLUNGE TO NEAR M6 DEG C IN THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH
CAROLINA WHERE A WINTRY PRANK WILL PLAY OUT DURING THE DAY WITH
THE HIGHER ELEVATION LANDSCAPE BECOMING MASKED IN A LAYER OF
WHITE. THE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS PROGGED TO PASS
DIRECTLY OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY OF NC AND THIS SHOULD BE GROUND
ZERO FOR SNOW WHICH WILL ACCUMULATE 3 TO 6 INCHES BEFORE ALL IS
SAID AND DONE SATURDAY NIGHT. OUTSIDE OF THIS HIGHER IMPACT
AREA...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LESS. WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST VA INCLUDING MOUNT
ROGERS...WHICH MAY RECEIVE SIMILAR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW...THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA APPEARS TO BE TOO WARM TO PARTAKE
IN MUCH IF ANY ACCUMULATION. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHLANDS OF WEST VIRGINIA AND INTO THE ALLEGHANY
HIGLANDS OF VA...BUT NOT UNTIL THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES LATER
SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS ALL MOUNTAIN ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT. EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...THICKNESSES REMAIN
ABOVE CRITICAL SUPPORTING NOTHING BUT A COLD RAIN FOR THE DURATION
OF THE EVENT. RAIN WILL COME TO AN END EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS
STRONG DOWNSLOPE DRYING BEGINS PER INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS
IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM. LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF FOR THE
EVENT IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM ABOUT A QUARTER /0.25/ OF AN INCH
IN THE NORTHEAST CWA (LYNCHBURG-BUCKINGHAM)...TO NEAR ONE INCH
/1.00/ IN THE SOUTHWEST (BLUEFIELD-BOONE).

A WINTER SHIVER WILL BE FELT THROUGHOUT THE MID ATLANTIC SATURDAY
NIGHT...READINGS DIPPING INTO THE L-M20S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONSAND
LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. TEMPERATURES
WILL STRUGGLE SUNDAY IN SPITE OF ANY CLEARING...AND SET THE STAGE
FOR A WIDER-SPREAD KILLING FREEZE SUNDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES
DIPPING AT OR BELOW 32 FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.

WINDS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE THE STRONGEST IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE...RAMPING UP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING INTO THE DAY SUNDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER SUNDAY.
ADVISORY SORT OF GUSTS...NEAR 40 KTS...ARE LIKELY VCNTY OF THE
BLUE RIDGE SATURDAY EVENING. WIND TRAJECTORIES FROM 340 DEGREES
ALSO SUGGEST STRONG CROSS WINDS LIKELY ALONG I-77 VCNTY OF FANCY
GAP.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK...HEIGHTS RISING AT 500 MB MONDAY AND TUESDAY RESULTING IN A
RETURN TO SEASONABLY NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FLOW PATTERN DURING THE
WEEK THEN EVOLVES INTO A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE UNITED
STATES BY WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY BRING A SHORT WAVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN STREAM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO INCREASING AS
THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS SHOWING A
BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY.
WILL BE INCREASING THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR
OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT FRIDAY...

EXPECT VFR AT ALL PRIMARY TAF SITES THIS MORNING...THOUGH SOME
MODELS HINTING AT A FEW HOURS OF MVFR IN THE MTNS OF WV VCNTY OF
KLWB EARLY THIS MORNING.

OVERALL TREND WILL BE FOR INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
TODAY AND IS PROGGED BY ALL MODELS TO LEAD TO SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
LEE OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...THIS FEATURE
DEEPENING RAPIDLY AS IT PASSES OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
SATURDAY.

LOOK FOR THICKENING AND LOWERING OF CLOUD BASES TODAY WITH ONSET
OF RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 18Z/2PM...SPREADING EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS INTO THE PIEDMONT BY 00Z/8PM THIS EVENING. RAIN WILL
BECOME MODERATE AT TIMES WITH CIGS LOWERING THROUGH MVFR CATEGORY
BETWEEN 18Z/2PM TO 00Z/8PM TIME FRAME...THEN INTO THE IFR CATEGORY
TONIGHT. THIS VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN LOWERING
FREEZING LEVELS WITH TIME...PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO SNOW OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TONIGHT.

DURING THE OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY AFTER MIDNIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE
THAT PTYPE CHANGE WILL OCCUR OVER THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE
APPALACHIAN DIVIDE...FROM BLUEFIELD WV (KBLF) TO BOONE NORTH
CAROLINA (KTNB). THIS AREA WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE MAJORITY OF THE
WINTRY PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL PLAY OUT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NC/TN
MTNS ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE SMOKIES. LIFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

AS CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE AND THE STORM MOVES TO THE COAST
SATURDAY...STRONG PRESSURE RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING WIND SPEEDS. GUSTS OF 25 TO 40 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE VCNTY OF THE MTNS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
STRONG GUSTS CONTINUING INTO THE DAY SUNDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA SUNDAY...WINDS GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE AREA...CONDITIONS REMAINING VFR.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE AC UNITS FOR THE RADAR SHELTER ARE BAD. RADAR OPERATION WILL
BE INTERMITTENT UNTIL SUCH TIME THE AC UNITS ARE FIXED.
IF SHELTER TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS WE WILL PLACE
THE RADAR INTO STANDBY TO AVOID DAMAGE TO THE TRANSMITTER.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR VAZ007-009-015.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...PM
EQUIPMENT...PM




000
FXUS61 KLWX 310758
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
358 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY. DEEP
LOW PRESSURE WILL DESCEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES...CROSSING THE
CAROLINAS SATURDAY BEFORE STRENGTHENING ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN INTO MONDAY FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT DURING MIDWEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OVER MUCH OF THE CWA HAS SERVED TO
HALT THE QUICK TEMPERATURE DROP AND MAY MITIGATE HEAVY FROST
DEVELOPMENT...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING...WILL LET THE
FROST ADVISORY CONTINUE FOR CENTRAL VA THROUGH 9 AM.

STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL DRIVE THE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS IS POISED OVER THE UP OF MI EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL
DIVE TO SC AS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN UNDERGOES SUBSTANTIAL
AMPLIFICATION AND NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS PHASE. SURFACE LOW
IS WEAK AT THIS TIME AND WILL LOSE DEFINITION AS ENERGY EVENTUALLY
TRANSFERS A COASTAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON SATURDAY. WITH
SUCH A SOUTHWARD TRAJECTORY...FORCING WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS FOR THE FIRST STAGE OF THIS SYSTEM. SOME RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THERE BUT MUCH OF CENTRAL MD AND VA WILL BE
IN A SQUEEZE PLAY UNTIL TONIGHT OR SATURDAY WHEN THE SYSTEM
WINDS UP AND BROAD SCALE LIFT WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AREA-WIDE.
HOWEVER...ANY HEAVIER PRECIPITATION FROM THE COASTAL LOW WILL LIKELY
REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.

IN TERMS OF ANY SNOWFALL...AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY COLD ADVECTION
WILL BE VERY MINIMAL WITH THIS OCCLUDED SYSTEM. AN ANALYSIS OF
SOUNDINGS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESS SUGGEST THAT ANY SNOW WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE VERY HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF WV...AND MOSTLY AS A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AT THAT. THE SNOW WILL BE FAVORED DURING DIURNAL
MINIMUMS IN TEMPERATURE AND ANY SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS TO NEAR 60 IN THE LOWLANDS. LOWS TONIGHT TEMPERED BY
CLOUD COVER IN RANGING FROM THE MID 30S HIGHLANDS TO MID 40S EAST.
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE ON SATURDAY AND WILL LIMIT HIGHS A BIT MORE THERE...WELL INTO
THE 40S. STILL NEAR 50 TO THE EAST. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS OFF THE COAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
BY SAT NGT...S/WV ENERGY WUD HV SHIFTED OFF THE ATLC CST...INDUCING
CYCLOGENESIS SOMEWHERE OFF CAPE HATTERAS. IN TERMS OF PCPN E OF THE
APLCHNS...THAT PRETTY MUCH WL MARK THE END...AS DRIER AIR WL WORK IN
ON THE NW SIDE OF THE CYCLONE. HV OPTED TO HOLD ONTO MORE CLDS THAN
GFS INDICATING...PARTLY DUE TO TIMING/UNCERTAINTY DIFFS AND THE
OTHER PART DUE TO LOW H5 HGTS/PVA STILL PIVOTING ACRS CWFA. WINDS
MAY BE THE BIGGEST IMPACT...BUT THE NOCTURNAL TIMING MAY PREVENT THE
FULL 30-40 KT AVBL H9-8 FM MIXING DOWN. WL BE KEEPING GUSTS 25-30
MPH.

ACRS THE MTNS...THE AMS WL BE COOLING SUFFICIENTLY FOR SOME SNOW.
HWVR...THE BEST DYNAMIC COOLING WL PASS S OF AREA. THIS LEAVES ONLY
A MARGINALLY FVRBL AMS W/ WARM GRND. HV TRIMMED SNW TTLS BACK A LTL.
WL KEEP HWO MENTION...AS ITS NOT OUT OF THE QSTN THAT ACCUMS
POTENTIALLY CUD YIELD AN ADVY. DECISIONS WL BE MADE AS EVENT NEARS.

H8-5 RDGG BLDS QUITE QUICKLY SUNDAY...SHUTTING OFF UPSLP SHSN.
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WL ERODE MOST OF THE CLDS DURING THE MRNG. THE INCRSG
SUBSIDENCE WL TAKE CARE OF THE MTNS BY MIDDAY. WL HV A TIGHT P-GRAD
OVER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...AND BETTER MIXING. GFS QUITE
ENTHUSIASTIC ON 35-40 KT WNDS. THAT REMAINS TO BE SEEN...BUT DO HV
30-35 MPH GUSTS IN GRIDS.

AM PRESERVING A GOOD AMT OF FCST CONTINUITY FOR TEMP FCSTS THRU THIS
PD. BIGGEST CHG COMES SAT NGT...AS THE STRONG GRADIENT SUGGESTS THAT
ANY TEMP LOSS WL PRIMARILY BE ADVECTIVE. THAT MEANS MIN-T IN THE 30S
AREAWIDE SAT NGT/SUN MRNG...AND TEMPS STRUGGLING TO REACH 50F SUN
AFTN.

RDGG BLDS OVER AREA SUN NGT...W/ ALL THE ASSOCD FEATURES-- CLR
SKIES/DCPLG WNDS/DEWPTS IN THE 20S. ITS LOOKING LIKE A HARD FREEZE
FOR MOST OF THE CWFA XCPT FOR THE URBAN DOWNTOWNS AND COMMUNITIES
NEAR THE BAY. THAT LIKELY WL MARK THE END OF THE GROWING SEASON.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE HIGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND NEAR THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY
SOME DURING THE DAY BUT REMAIN A LITTLE ON THE CHILLY SIDE MONDAY
NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO GRADUALLY SLIDE INTO THE REGION AND BRING A
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS. PRECIP TIMING HAS BEEN PUSHED BACK TO
WED-WED NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ON THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND TONIGHT
BUT ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY WEST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH MOST
OF THIS PERIOD. A VFR CEILING MAY BE PREVALENT WITH VERY FEW BREAKS
WITH THE APPRAOCHING SYSTEM. EASTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME
NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT...REMAINING LESS THAN 10 KT.

AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY...NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH SHOWERS.

WINDS WL PROVIDE PRIMARY OP IMPACT SAT NGT-SUN...AS AN ELEVATED CORE
OF 40+ KT WNDS CROSS TERMINALS. THE LLJ WL RESIDE ABT 2K FT ABV SFC.
SHUD HV 25-30KT GUSTS IN NW FLOW AT GRND LVL...MAYBE A LTL HIER THAN
THAT SUN MRNG-MIDDAY. ANY CIGS WUD BE MVFR-VFR SAT NGT AND SHUD CLR
BY/SOON AFTR SUNRISE SUN MRNG.

VFR SUN AFTN INTO TUE.
&&

.MARINE...
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS UNDER SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES WEST AND SOUTH OF
THE AREA. WITH THE STRENGTHENING LOW MOVING OFF THE COAST ON
SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL BE MET WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
GUSTING TO AROUND 30 KT.

GRADIENT INCREASES SAT NGT. AM NOT CERTAIN IF GLW WL ENCOMPASS
ENTIRE MARINE AREA...BUT IT SHUD HIT A MAJORITY OF IT. SINCE THE GLW
WUD MEANS A HEADLINE RAMP-UP IN THE 4TH PD...HV OPTED TO NOT ISSUE
ATTM PER POLICY. NONETHELESS...THE OPEN WATERS OF THE MID BAY SHUD
EXPERIENCE 35-40 KT GUSTS. CONDS WUD CONT INTO SUN BEFORE THE
GRADIENT RELAXES AND WNDS SUBSIDE. SCA CONDS PROGGED TO HOLD ON THRU
SUN NGT PER CURRENT FCST.

AS HIPRES BLDS ELY NEXT WEEK...NO HAZARDS EXPECTED AT THAT TIME.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY
MORNING AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. POSITIVE DEPARTURES UP TO A HALF FOOT ON THE
WATERS ATTM...AND THESE MAY INCREASE A LITTLE BIT MORE THROUGH
TONIGHT. TIDAL FLOODING ISSUES WOULD ONLY OCCUR IF DEPARTURES
EXCEEDED A FOOT. AT THIS POINT...SUSPECT THAT WONT HAPPEN. BLOWOUT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ025>027-029-
     036>040-050>052-502.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...HTS/KLW
AVIATION...ADS/HTS
MARINE...ADS/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 310751
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
351 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MRNG SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED VERY WK HI PRES INVOF CNTRL
MTNS...W/ A LINGERING FNTL BNDRY OFF THE CST. ALSO...ONE S/W ALOFT
MOVING THROUGH THE LWR OH VLY...AND A 2ND (STRONGER) ONE DIVING SE
THROUGH THE WRN LAKES STATES.

TDA BEGINS CHILLY (XCP RIGHT AT THE IMMEDIATE CST IN SE VA/NE NC)
AND MNLY SKC (W/ EXCEPTION TO FAR NNW AND INVOF CSTL NE NC).
INITIAL S/W CARVES OUT TROUGH INTO INTERIOR SE CONUS STATES AND
AWAITS ARRIVAL OF THE 2ND S/W FM THE NNW. VERY WK SFC HI PRES RMNS
IN PLACE LONG ENOUGH FOR A MNLY DRY DAY ACRS THE FA. WK SFC LO
PRES DEVELOPS INVOF STALLED FNT OFF THE SE CONUS CST THIS MRNG
WHICH LIFTS TO THE NE THROUGH THE AFTN. COMBO OF SYS E AND W OF
THE FA WILL RESULT IN VRB CLDS TO PCLDY CONDS MOST PLACES THIS
AFTN. WILL HAVE SLGT CHC TO LO END CHC POPS RIGHT ALG THE
IMMEDIATE CST IN SE VA/NE NC THIS AFTN AS THE SFC LO TRACKS OFF
THE CST. HI TEMPS FM THE U50S NNW TO 60 TO 65F ELSW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG S/W WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH FROM THE TN VALLEY ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH TNGT...THEN THROUGH THE CAROLINAS ON SAT. CONTD
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT DEPICTING UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF OVER THE
CAROLINAS MIDDAY SAT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SPIN-UP SECONDARY
CYCLOGENESIS OFFSHORE OF THE NC COAST SAT AFTN/EVE...BEFORE
QUICKLY EJECTING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE SAT NGT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. COOL 1030+MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE EAST FROM
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

00Z/31 SUITE OF MODELS RMN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT RAIN WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE TNGT THROUGH SATURDAY. BREEZY OVERALL
ON SATURDAY...WITH BEST SURGE OF CAA LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL SAT
NGT. GIVEN FCST OF HOW FAR S UPR LVL SYS TRACKS...MOST SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS (BOTH WND AND RA) APR TO BE OVER FOR ERN/SERN CSTL
LOCATIONS (PRIMARILY) FM MIDDAY SAT INTO EARLY SAT EVENING.
ADDITIONALLY, A PERIOD OF STRONG NNE WNDS (35-45 MPH) EXPECTED
ALONG COASTAL ZONES W/AREAS OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG THE ATLC
BEACHES AND LWR CHES BAY (SEE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BLO). WILL
CONT TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN HWO. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED OVER AT LEAST SOME OF OUR COASTAL ZONES SAT NGT FOR A 6-10
HOUR PERIOD IF CURRENT FORECAST RATIONALE PANS OUT.

PCPN WILL TAPER OFF SAT NGT W/ SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING WAVE...AND SKY CLEARS OUT QUICKLY INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS
SURFACE HIGH OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SINKS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE SOUTHEAST BEGINNING SUNDAY. THIS WILL USHER IN THE COOLEST AIR
OF THE SEASON TO DATE.

WRT QPF...MOST INLAND PLACES MAY HAVE AVG AMOUNTS LESS THAN 0.25
IN...W/ HIGHER AMOUNTS (TO 0.50 TO PSBLY 0.75 IN) MNLY CONFINED TO
CLOSE TO THE CST.

FOR TEMPERATURES...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND INCREASING RAIN CHCS
WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 50S FOR MOST ON SATURDAY...THOUGH TEMPS MAY
NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 40S WELL INLAND. WELL MIXED ATMOS/BREEZY-
WINDY CONDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT STILL CHILLY WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 30S INLAND TO
LOW 40S ALONG THE COAST. DESPITE A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...ONGOING LO
LVL CAA WILL KEEP HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 50S...OR ROUGHLY -1 TO -1.5
STD DEV FROM CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. BY
MONDAY MORNING LOWS SHOULD FALL TO AROUND 30-32 FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA (UPPER 20S POSSIBLE IN FAVORED COLD SPOTS)...WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER VALUES (35-40) FOR FAR SE PORTIONS. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES THIS FALL ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA. A SLOW MODERATING TREND IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD
RANGE FROM 55-60...WITH MID/UPPER 60S POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN RATHER COOL TUESDAY MORNING
RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 30S INTERIOR TO LOW 40S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS. LOWS SHOULD MODERATE INTO THE MID 40S/LOW 50S WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH THE HIGH WELL OFFSHORE AND THE RESUMPTION OF SSW FLOW.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND TRACKS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME MOISTURE APPEARS RATHER LIMITED WITH
THIS FRONT...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS ARE INCLUDED AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THE
HIGH DISSIPATES OVER THE REGION THIS AFTN WHILE SETTING UP A WEAK
WEDGE THAT...DUE TO THE RESULTING NE FLOW...MAY CAUSE SOME MVFR
CEILINGS TO OCCUR AT KORF/KPHF/KECG THIS EVENING. ALSO TODAY...A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A
FEW SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE NE NC/SE VA COAST.

STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OH AND THEN TN
RIVER VALLEYS INTO SAT. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP FORM A STRONG
COASTAL SYSTEM OFF THE OUTER BANKS LATE SAT INTO SUN. AS THIS
SYSTEM DEEPENS AND MOVES OFF THE COAST...20-30 KT N WINDS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WATCHES SAT NGT HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO WARNINGS FOLLOWING
INCREASED CONFIDENCE AND COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. FOR
TDA...NE WINDS UP TO ~15 KT EXPECTED AS LO PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE SE
CST. THOUGH NOT LIKELY...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
SCA CONDITIONS OVR THE BAY. WINDS BCM NLY TNGT WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS
AS THE LO PASSES OFFSHORE AND ANOTHER LO PRES CENTER DEVELOPS NEAR
THE NC/SC CST. ON SAT...WINDS/WAVES/SEAS INCREASE AS THAT SECOND
AREA OF LO PRES STRENGTHENS OFF THE NC CST IN RESPONSE TO A VERY
POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF. MAINTAINED THE SCA OVR NRN CSTL
WTRS BEFORE THE GALE AS A PERIOD OF 5 FT SEAS IS EXPECTED
THERE...WHILE CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE WILL RAMP UP FAST ENUF TO JUST
WARRANT A GALE HEADLINE. CONDITIONS OVR THE RIVERS OTHER THAN THE
LWR JAMES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY SUB-GALE SO A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED
THERE. BRIEF WINDS CLOSE TO STORM FORCE ARE PSBL OVR SRN CSTL
WTRS...BUT WITH THE SPEED AND TRACK OF THE SFC LO...EXPECT WINDS TO
STAY MAINLY IN THE GALE RANGE. STRONGEST WINDS OVR THE
BAY/SOUND/CSTL WTRS (30-40 KT SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO 40-45 KT) WILL
OCCUR SAT NGT...AND SLOWLY DIMINISH ON SUN AS THE LO PULLS WELL NE
OF THE AREA. EXPECT 4-6 FT WAVES OVR THE BAY AND SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS
UP TO 10-12 FT. HI PRES BLDS OVR THE AREA SUN NGT AND MON AND THEN
SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE ERLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...WITH SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN OFF THE COAST LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 1-1.5FT
ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
AND LOWER BAY. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IF THE SURGE
COINCIDES DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM EDT SATURDAY TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ635>637.
     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM EDT SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ630>634-638.
     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM EDT SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MAM
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/MAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MAS/DAP
MARINE...MAS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...












000
FXUS61 KAKQ 310746
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
346 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MRNG SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED VERY WK HI PRES INVOF CNTRL
MTNS...W/ A LINGERING FNTL BNDRY OFF THE CST. ALSO...ONE S/W ALOFT
MOVING THROUGH THE LWR OH VLY...AND A 2ND (STRONGER) ONE DIVING SE
THROUGH THE WRN LAKES STATES.

TDA BEGINS CHILLY (XCP RIGHT AT THE IMMEDIATE CST IN SE VA/NE NC)
AND MNLY SKC (W/ EXCEPTION INVOF CSTL NE NC). INITIAL S/W CARVES
OUT TROUGH INTO INTERIOR SE CONUS STATES AND AWAITS ARRIVAL OF THE
2ND S/W FM THE NNW. VERY WK SFC HI PRES RMNS IN PLACE LONG ENOUGH
FOR A MNLY DRY DAY ACRS THE FA. WK SFC LO PRES DEVELOPS INVOF
STALLED FNT OFF THE SE CONUS CST THIS MRNG WHICH LIFTS TO THE NE
THROUGH THE AFTN. COMBO OF SYS E AND W OF THE FA WILL RESULT IN
VRB CLDS TO PCLDY CONDS MOST PLACES THIS AFTN. WILL HAVE SLGT CHC
TO LO END CHC POPS RIGHT ALG THE IMMEDIATE CST IN SE VA/NE NC THIS
AFTN AS THE SFC LO TRACKS OFF THE CST. HI TEMPS FM THE U50S NNW TO
60 TO 65F ELSW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG S/W WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH FROM THE TN VALLEY ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH TNGT...THEN THROUGH THE CAROLINAS ON SAT. CONTD
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT DEPICTING UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF OVER THE
CAROLINAS MIDDAY SAT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SPIN-UP SECONDARY
CYCLOGENESIS OFFSHORE OF THE NC COAST SAT AFTN/EVE...BEFORE
QUICKLY EJECTING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE SAT NGT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. COOL 1030+MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE EAST FROM
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

00Z/31 SUITE OF MODELS RMN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT RAIN WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE TNGT THROUGH SATURDAY. BREEZY OVERALL
ON SATURDAY...WITH BEST SURGE OF CAA LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL SAT
NGT. GIVEN FCST OF HOW FAR S UPR LVL SYS TRACKS...MOST SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS (BOTH WND AND RA) APR TO BE OVER FOR ERN/SERN CSTL
LOCATIONS (PRIMARILY) FM MIDDAY SAT INTO EARLY SAT EVENING.
ADDITIONALLY, A PERIOD OF STRONG NNE WNDS (35-45 MPH) EXPECTED
ALONG COASTAL ZONES W/AREAS OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG THE ATLC
BEACHES AND LWR CHES BAY (SEE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BLO). WILL
CONT TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN HWO. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED OVER AT LEAST SOME OF OUR COASTAL ZONES SAT NGT FOR A 6-10
HOUR PERIOD IF CURRENT FORECAST RATIONALE PANS OUT.

PCPN WILL TAPER OFF SAT NGT W/ SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING WAVE...AND SKY CLEARS OUT QUICKLY INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS
SURFACE HIGH OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SINKS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE SOUTHEAST BEGINNING SUNDAY. THIS WILL USHER IN THE COOLEST AIR
OF THE SEASON TO DATE.

WRT QPF...MOST INLAND PLACES MAY HAVE AVG AMOUNTS LESS THAN 0.25
IN...W/ HIGHER AMOUNTS (TO 0.50 TO PSBLY 0.75 IN) MNLY CONFINED TO
CLOSE TO THE CST.

FOR TEMPERATURES...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND INCREASING RAIN CHCS
WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 50S FOR MOST ON SATURDAY...THOUGH TEMPS MAY
NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 40S WELL INLAND. WELL MIXED ATMOS/BREEZY-
WINDY CONDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT STILL CHILLY WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 30S INLAND TO
LOW 40S ALONG THE COAST. DESPITE A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...ONGOING LO
LVL CAA WILL KEEP HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 50S...OR ROUGHLY -1 TO -1.5
STD DEV FROM CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. BY
MONDAY MORNING LOWS SHOULD FALL TO AROUND 30-32 FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA (UPPER 20S POSSIBLE IN FAVORED COLD SPOTS)...WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER VALUES (35-40) FOR FAR SE PORTIONS. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES THIS FALL ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA. A SLOW MODERATING TREND IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD
RANGE FROM 55-60...WITH MID/UPPER 60S POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN RATHER COOL TUESDAY MORNING
RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 30S INTERIOR TO LOW 40S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS. LOWS SHOULD MODERATE INTO THE MID 40S/LOW 50S WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH THE HIGH WELL OFFSHORE AND THE RESUMPTION OF SSW FLOW.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND TRACKS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME MOISTURE APPEARS RATHER LIMITED WITH
THIS FRONT...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS ARE INCLUDED AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THE
HIGH DISSIPATES OVER THE REGION THIS AFTN WHILE SETTING UP A WEAK
WEDGE THAT...DUE TO THE RESULTING NE FLOW...MAY CAUSE SOME MVFR
CEILINGS TO OCCUR AT KORF/KPHF/KECG THIS EVENING. ALSO TODAY...A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A
FEW SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE NE NC/SE VA COAST.

STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OH AND THEN TN
RIVER VALLEYS INTO SAT. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP FORM A STRONG
COASTAL SYSTEM OFF THE OUTER BANKS LATE SAT INTO SUN. AS THIS
SYSTEM DEEPENS AND MOVES OFF THE COAST...20-30 KT N WINDS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WATCHES SAT NGT HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO WARNINGS FOLLOWING
INCREASED CONFIDENCE AND COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. FOR
TDA...NE WINDS UP TO ~15 KT EXPECTED AS LO PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE SE
CST. THOUGH NOT LIKELY...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
SCA CONDITIONS OVR THE BAY. WINDS BCM NLY TNGT WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS
AS THE LO PASSES OFFSHORE AND ANOTHER LO PRES CENTER DEVELOPS NEAR
THE NC/SC CST. ON SAT...WINDS/WAVES/SEAS INCREASE AS THAT SECOND
AREA OF LO PRES STRENGTHENS OFF THE NC CST IN RESPONSE TO A VERY
POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF. MAINTAINED THE SCA OVR NRN CSTL
WTRS BEFORE THE GALE AS A PERIOD OF 5 FT SEAS IS EXPECTED
THERE...WHILE CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE WILL RAMP UP FAST ENUF TO JUST
WARRANT A GALE HEADLINE. CONDITIONS OVR THE RIVERS OTHER THAN THE
LWR JAMES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY SUB-GALE SO A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED
THERE. BRIEF WINDS CLOSE TO STORM FORCE ARE PSBL OVR SRN CSTL
WTRS...BUT WITH THE SPEED AND TRACK OF THE SFC LO...EXPECT WINDS TO
STAY MAINLY IN THE GALE RANGE. STRONGEST WINDS OVR THE
BAY/SOUND/CSTL WTRS (30-40 KT SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO 40-45 KT) WILL
OCCUR SAT NGT...AND SLOWLY DIMINISH ON SUN AS THE LO PULLS WELL NE
OF THE AREA. EXPECT 4-6 FT WAVES OVR THE BAY AND SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS
UP TO 10-12 FT. HI PRES BLDS OVR THE AREA SUN NGT AND MON AND THEN
SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE ERLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...WITH SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN OFF THE COAST LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 1-1.5FT
ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
AND LOWER BAY. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IF THE SURGE
COINCIDES DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM EDT SATURDAY TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ635>637.
     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM EDT SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ630>634-638.
     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM EDT SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MAM
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/MAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MAS/DAP
MARINE...MAS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ

















































000
FXUS61 KRNK 310630
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
230 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY FRIDAY. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE
FRIDAY EVENING AS A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE FROM CANADA MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINTER STORM CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY IN THE HIGH COUNTRY OF NORTH CAROLINA...AND INTO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF FAR WESTERN VIRGINIA VICINITY OF MOUNT ROGERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FEET WILL SEE THE
GREATEST WINTRY IMPACT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1120 PM EDT THURSDAY...

EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES INTO EARLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS
INCREASE FROM THE WEST. JUST A LITTLE SC ACROSS THE NEW RIVER
VALLEY. TEMPS HAVE SUNK INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S OVER
PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS SO EXPECT FROST IN THE
MOUNTAINS...THOUGH THE GROWING SEASON IS OVER. PATCHY FROST TO
FORM IN THE FOOTHILLS AND SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VLY. NOT ENOUGH
COVERAGE TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY AS CLOUDS WILL BE HEADING INTO THE
REGION BY DAWN.

NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS A
STRONG DISTURBANCE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. ONE SHORT WAVE COMING AROUND THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO WESTERN SLOPES OF SOUTHEASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA AROUND NOON FRIDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO
SATURATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THIS SHORT WAVE TRACKS EAST OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. RAIN SHOWERS ADVANCE TO THE BLUE RIDGE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON THEN INTO THE FOOTHILLS LATE. THE PIEDMONT MAY NOT SEE
ANY RAIN UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND 85H
TEMPERATURES STAY WARM THROUGH THE DAY TO KEEP P-TYPE AS A COLD
RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...

DEEP CLOSED 500MB LOW OVER INDIANA WILL TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA BY SATURDAY MORNING THEN EAST TO THE
OUTER BANKS BY SATURDAY EVENING. 110 KNOT UPPER JET ROUNDS THE BASE
OF THE TROF SATURDAY THEN TROF AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW FEATURE WILL BE SUBTLE AS IT CROSSES THE
CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT BUT THEN LOW SHARPLY DEEPENS JUST OFF THE
COAST ON SATURDAY.

EXPECTING GOOD UPSLOPE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. 850 MB WINDS WILL BE 45 TO 50 KNOTS
FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST SO DIRECTION IS NOT IDEAL BUT SPEEDS ARE
CERTAINLY PLENTY STRONG. BEST PRESSURE RISES WILL BE ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AS LOW DEEPENS WHICH WILL ENHANCE WIND SPEEDS.

BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND PARTIAL THICKNESS FORECASTS SUGGEST A GRADUAL
CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW AROUND MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT IN MOST
LOCATIONS. A BETTER EASTWARD PUSH OF THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR COMES
IN SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE PRECIPITATION IN THE EAST.

MODELS PULL THE DEEP MOISTURE EAST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT FASTER THAN THE NAM. BUT EVEN NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING
SHOWS MOISTURE BECOMING SHALLOW BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. LITTLE
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WITH SUCH SHALLOW MOISTURE ON SATURDAY
NIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND
UPSLOPE WILL DIMINISH ALTHOUGH SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA SUNDAY EVENING.

HAVE UPGRADE TO A WINTER STORM WARNING. OTHER ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY
BE ISSUED LATER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...

UPPER RISING AT 500 MB MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN EVOLVES INTO A SPLIT
FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE UNITED STATES BY WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY BRING A
SHORT WAVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. INFLOW OFF THE GULF
OF MEXICO INCREASES AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. MODELS SHOWING A BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. WILL BE INCREASING THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT FRIDAY...

EXPECT VFR AT ALL PRIMARY TAF SITES THIS MORNING...THOUGH SOME
MODELS HINTING AT A FEW HOURS OF MVFR IN THE MTNS OF WV VCNTY OF
KLWB EARLY THIS MORNING.

OVERALL TREND WILL BE FOR INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
TODAY AND IS PROGGED BY ALL MODELS TO LEAD TO SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
LEE OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...THIS FEATURE
DEEPENING RAPIDLY AS IT PASSES OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
SATURDAY.

LOOK FOR THICKENING AND LOWERING OF CLOUD BASES TODAY WITH ONSET
OF RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 18Z/2PM...SPREADING EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS INTO THE PIEDMONT BY 00Z/8PM THIS EVENING. RAIN WILL
BECOME MODERATE AT TIMES WITH CIGS LOWERING THROUGH MVFR CATEGORY
BETWEEN 18Z/2PM TO 00Z/8PM TIME FRAME...THEN INTO THE IFR CATEGORY
TONIGHT. THIS VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN LOWERING
FREEZING LEVELS WITH TIME...PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO SNOW OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TONIGHT.

DURING THE OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY AFTER MIDNIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE
THAT PTYPE CHANGE WILL OCCUR OVER THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE
APPALACHIAN DIVIDE...FROM BLUEFIELD WV (KBLF) TO BOONE NORTH
CAROLINA (KTNB). THIS AREA WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE MAJORITY OF THE
WINTRY PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL PLAY OUT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NC/TN
MTNS ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE SMOKIES. LIFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

AS CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE AND THE STORM MOVES TO THE COAST
SATURDAY...STRONG PRESSURE RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING WIND SPEEDS. GUSTS OF 25 TO 40 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE VCNTY OF THE MTNS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
STRONG GUSTS CONTINUING INTO THE DAY SUNDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA SUNDAY...WINDS GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE AREA...CONDITIONS REMAINING VFR.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE AC UNITS FOR THE RADAR SHELTER ARE BAD. RADAR OPERATION WILL
BE INTERMITTENT UNTIL SUCH TIME THE AC UNITS ARE FIXED.
IF SHELTER TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS WE WILL PLACE
THE RADAR INTO STANDBY TO AVOID DAMAGE TO THE TRANSMITTER.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR VAZ007-009-015.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...RCS/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...PM
EQUIPMENT...PM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 310527
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
127 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MIDDAY SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED SFC COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE,
EXTENDING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. MEANWHILE, ~1022 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE RGN FM THE WNW. ALOFT, 2 MAIN PLAYERS
ARE A SHORTWAVE CUTTING ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE
OZARKS WITH A SECOND, STRONGER SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES THIS AFTN.

FRONT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH BUILDS
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. FORECAST LOW TEMPS EARLY FRI MORNING INTO
THE M/U30S INLAND TO ~ 50F ALONG SE COASTAL AREAS...UNDER A CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY.

FRIDAY BEGINS MOSTLY CLEAR, WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS LATE
AFTN/FRIDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION DAY AS WEAKER
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE OZARKS CARVES OUT AN EAST COAST
TROUGH INTO THE DEEP SOUTH FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, STRONGER NORTHERN
PLAINS TROUGH DROPS SOUTH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTN. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW AND STRONG SFC
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARDS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS FRIDAY AFTN AND EVENING.

ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA, HV MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY. MODEL
CROSS SECTIONS STILL SHOWING A GOOD DEAL OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR THAT
WL NEED TO BE OVERCOME...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON POP UNTIL AFTER DARK
FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. OTHERWISE, NOTHING MORE THAN
INCREASING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS TOMORROW AFTN/EVENING WITH HIGHS IN
THE U50S NORTH TO LOW 60S SOUTHEAST INCLUDING ALONG THE COAST. DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST TRICK OR TREATERS TOMORROW, WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF A FEW SPRINKLES POTENTIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST ALONG THE
COASTAL FRONT AND OVER THE PIEDMONT AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SYNOPTIC REVIEW: STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL DIG CONTINUE TO DIG
SOUTH FROM THE TN VALLEY ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH ON SATURDAY. GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT DEPICTING UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF OVER THE CAROLINAS
MIDDAY SAT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SPIN-UP SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS
OFFSHORE OF THE NC COAST SAT AFTN/EVENING, BEFORE QUICKLY EJECTING
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE SAT NGT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
COOL 1030+MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE EAST FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

FORECAST DETAILS/CONCERNS: 12Z/THU SUITE OF MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. BREEZY OVERALL ON SATURDAY, WITH BEST SURGE OF
CAA LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL SAT NGT. GIVEN FCST OF HOW FAR S UPR
LVL SYSTEM TRACKS, MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS APPEAR TO BE OVER FOR
ERN/SERN CSTL LOCATIONS (PRIMARILY) FM MIDDAY SAT INTO EARLY SAT
EVENING. ADDITIONALLY, A PERIOD OF STRONG NNE WNDS (35-45 MPH)
EXPECTED ALONG COASTAL ZONES W/AREAS OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG
THE ATLC BEACHES (SEE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW). WILL
HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN HWO. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
OVER AT LEAST SOME OF OUR COASTAL ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT FOR A 6-10
HOUR PERIOD IF CURRENT FORECAST RATIONALE PANS OUT.

PCPN WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING WAVE...AND SKY CLEARS OUT QUICKLY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SINKS FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
USHER IN THE COOLEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO DATE AND A WIDESPREAD
FROST/FREEZE IS EXPECTED TO FOR MOST LOCATIONS JUST INLAND MONDAY
MORNING..

FOR TEMPERATURES, WIDESPREAD CLOUDS, INCREASING RAIN CHCS WILL KEEP
HIGHS IN THE 50S FOR MOST ON SATURDAY, WITH TEMPS POTENTIALLY NOT
MAKING IT OUT OF THE 40S WELL INLAND. WELL MIXED ATM/BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT
STILL CHILLY WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S INLAND TO LOW 40S ALONG THE
COAST. DESPITE A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY, ONGOING CAA WILL KEEP HIGHS
SUNDAY IN THE 50S...OR ROUGHLY -1 TO -1.5 STD DEV FROM CLIMO.
THE SFC HIGH LOCATES ALONG THE SE COAST ON MONDAY, WITH RESULTANT
LOW LEVEL SW FLOW ALLOWING FOR A MODEST WARMUP MONDAY...INTO THE
U50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. BY
MONDAY MORNING LOWS SHOULD FALL TO AROUND 30-32 FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA (UPPER 20S POSSIBLE IN FAVORED COLD SPOTS)...WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER VALUES (35-40) FOR FAR SE PORTIONS. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES THIS FALL ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA. A SLOW MODERATING TREND IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD
RANGE FROM 55-60...WITH MID/UPPER 60S POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN RATHER COOL TUESDAY MORNING
RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 30S INTERIOR TO LOW 40S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS. LOWS SHOULD MODERATE INTO THE MID 40S/LOW 50S WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH THE HIGH WELL OFFSHORE AND THE RESUMPTION OF SSW FLOW.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND TRACKS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME MOISTURE APPEARS RATHER LIMITED WITH
THIS FRONT...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS ARE INCLUDED AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THE
HIGH DISSIPATES OVER THE REGION THIS AFTN WHILE SETTING UP A WEAK
WEDGE THAT...DUE TO THE RESULTING NE FLOW...MAY CAUSE SOME MVFR
CEILINGS TO OCCUR AT KORF/KPHF/KECG THIS EVENING. ALSO TODAY...A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A
FEW SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE NE NC/SE VA COAST.

STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OH AND THEN TN
RIVER VALLEYS INTO SAT. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP FORM A STRONG
COASTAL SYSTEM OFF THE OUTER BANKS LATE SAT INTO SUN. AS THIS
SYSTEM DEEPENS AND MOVES OFF THE COAST...20-30 KT N WINDS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IMMEDIATELY WEST OF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN NNE FLOW AVERAGING
10-15KT...WITH 2-3FT SEAS AND 1-2FT WAVES IN THE BAY (2-3FT AT THE
MOUTH OF THE BAY). THE HIGH WEAKENS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FIRST WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE PULLS QUICKLY TO THE NE. A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...WITH A STRONGER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEEPENING OFF THE OUTER BANKS SATURDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG CAA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. A NNW
WIND IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY INCREASE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND A
PERIOD OF GALE CONDITIONS IS LIKELY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SCA CONDITIONS LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. AT THIS TIME A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL ZONES BUT
THE RAPPAHANNOCK/YORK/UPPER JAMES BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND RUNNING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE BAY/SOUND/LOWER
JAMES...AND MID-MORNING FOR THE OCEAN. THIS IS RATHER EARLY FOR A
GALE WATCH...BUT THE FLAG HAS BEEN RAISED GIVEN A RATHER HIGH
CONFIDENCE FORECAST. A RAMP UP SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NRN OCEAN
ZONES (N OF PARRAMORE) TO ACCOUNT FOR A LONGER NE PUSH...WHICH COULD
BUILD SEAS TO 5-7FT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. 12Z DATA INDICATES
RAPID CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING OFF THE OUTER BANKS...SO GIVEN THIS
THERE IS MUCH LESS OF A CHANCE OF A SHORT DURATION PERIOD OF STORM
FORCE GUSTS SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THEN SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH THE WIND BACKING FROM NW TO SW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN OFF THE COAST LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 1-1.5FT
ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
AND LOWER BAY. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IF THE SURGE
COINCIDES DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>634-638.
     GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/MAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MAS/DAP
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KRNK 310336
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1136 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY FRIDAY. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE
FRIDAY EVENING AS A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE FROM CANADA MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINTER STORM CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY IN THE HIGH COUNTRY OF NORTH CAROLINA...AND INTO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF FAR WESTERN VIRGINIA VICINITY OF MOUNT ROGERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FEET WILL SEE THE
GREATEST WINTRY IMPACT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1120 PM EDT THURSDAY...

EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES INTO EARLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS
INCREASE FROM THE WEST. JUST A LITTLE SC ACROSS THE NEW RIVER
VALLEY. TEMPS HAVE SUNK INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S OVER
PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS SO EXPECT FROST IN THE
MOUNTAINS...THOUGH THE GROWING SEASON IS OVER. PATCHY FROST TO
FORM IN THE FOOTHILLS AND SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VLY. NOT ENOUGH
COVERAGE TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY AS CLOUDS WILL BE HEADING INTO THE
REGION BY DAWN.

NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS A
STRONG DISTURBANCE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. ONE SHORT WAVE COMING AROUND THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO WESTERN SLOPES OF SOUTHEASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA AROUND NOON FRIDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO
SATURATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THIS SHORT WAVE TRACKS EAST OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. RAIN SHOWERS ADVANCE TO THE BLUE RIDGE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON THEN INTO THE FOOTHILLS LATE. THE PIEDMONT MAY NOT SEE
ANY RAIN UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND 85H
TEMPERATURES STAY WARM THROUGH THE DAY TO KEEP P-TYPE AS A COLD
RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...

DEEP CLOSED 500MB LOW OVER INDIANA WILL TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA BY SATURDAY MORNING THEN EAST TO THE
OUTER BANKS BY SATURDAY EVENING. 110 KNOT UPPER JET ROUNDS THE BASE
OF THE TROF SATURDAY THEN TROF AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW FEATURE WILL BE SUBTLE AS IT CROSSES THE
CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT BUT THEN LOW SHARPLY DEEPENS JUST OFF THE
COAST ON SATURDAY.

EXPECTING GOOD UPSLOPE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. 850 MB WINDS WILL BE 45 TO 50 KNOTS
FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST SO DIRECTION IS NOT IDEAL BUT SPEEDS ARE
CERTAINLY PLENTY STRONG. BEST PRESSURE RISES WILL BE ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AS LOW DEEPENS WHICH WILL ENHANCE WIND SPEEDS.

BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND PARTIAL THICKNESS FORECASTS SUGGEST A GRADUAL
CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW AROUND MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT IN MOST
LOCATIONS. A BETTER EASTWARD PUSH OF THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR COMES
IN SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE PRECIPITATION IN THE EAST.

MODELS PULL THE DEEP MOISTURE EAST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT FASTER THAN THE NAM. BUT EVEN NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING
SHOWS MOISTURE BECOMING SHALLOW BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. LITTLE
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WITH SUCH SHALLOW MOISTURE ON SATURDAY
NIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND
UPSLOPE WILL DIMINISH ALTHOUGH SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA SUNDAY EVENING.

HAVE UPGRADE TO A WINTER STORM WARNING. OTHER ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY
BE ISSUED LATER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...

UPPER RISING AT 500 MB MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN EVOLVES INTO A SPLIT
FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE UNITED STATES BY WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY BRING A
SHORT WAVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. INFLOW OFF THE GULF
OF MEXICO INCREASES AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. MODELS SHOWING A BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. WILL BE INCREASING THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 725 PM EDT THURSDAY...

EXPECT VFR AT ALL SITES OVERNIGHT...THOUGH SOME MODELS HINTING AT
A FEW HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR BLF/LWB TO DROP INTO MVFR
CIGS...AND THINK THIS APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN CIGS
UPSTREAM...THOUGH THIS CLOUD FIELD HAS BEEN SHRINKING. CONFIDENCE
LOW ATTM IN THE CIGS OVERNIGHT OUT WEST. HAVE NO FOG IN THE
FORECAST AS WELL BUT CANNOT RULE IT OUT COMPLETELY IF SKIES STAY
CLEAR AS WINDS ARE NEAR CALM.

LOOK FOR INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. MODELS FAVOR RAIN MOVING INTO
BLF/LWB BY 20Z...THEN BCB BEFORE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD. CIGS WILL
BE DROPPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EXPECT HIGH END MVFR/LOW END
VFR IN THE MTNS...WITH MVFR VSBYS IN RAIN.

BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD...AVIATION CONDITIONS START TO DROP TO
POOR AS THE STORM SYSTEM STRENGTHENS OVER THE CAROLINAS AND OFF
THE COAST INTO SATURDAY. COLDER AIR WORKING INTO THE MOUNTAINS
WILL SHIFT PTYPE FROM RAIN TO SNOW AT LWB/BLF...AND INTO BCB BY
SAT MORNING. LOOKING FOR SUB VFR...AS LOW AS LIFR AT TIMES IN THE
MTNS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...BEFORE THE SYSTEM SHIFTS TO OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING FROM
SOUTHERLY TO NW AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AND GUSTS OVER 45 MPH
AT THE TERMINALS AT BCB/ROA AND PERHAPS BLF COULD BE POSSIBLE SAT
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

CIGS WILL IMPROVE IN THE PIEDMONT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND BY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE BLF/LWB AREA. EXPECT MAINLY VFR INTO TUESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE AC UNITS FOR THE RADAR SHELTER ARE BAD. RADAR OPERATION WILL
BE INTERMITTENT UNTIL SUCH TIME THE AC UNITS ARE FIXED.
IF SHELTER TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS WE WILL PLACE
THE RADAR INTO STANDBY TO AVOID DAMAGE TO THE TRANSMITTER.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VAZ007-009-015.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NCZ001-018.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...RCS/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...WP
EQUIPMENT...PM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 310336
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1136 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY FRIDAY. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE
FRIDAY EVENING AS A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE FROM CANADA MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINTER STORM CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY IN THE HIGH COUNTRY OF NORTH CAROLINA...AND INTO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF FAR WESTERN VIRGINIA VICINITY OF MOUNT ROGERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FEET WILL SEE THE
GREATEST WINTRY IMPACT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1120 PM EDT THURSDAY...

EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES INTO EARLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS
INCREASE FROM THE WEST. JUST A LITTLE SC ACROSS THE NEW RIVER
VALLEY. TEMPS HAVE SUNK INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S OVER
PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS SO EXPECT FROST IN THE
MOUNTAINS...THOUGH THE GROWING SEASON IS OVER. PATCHY FROST TO
FORM IN THE FOOTHILLS AND SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VLY. NOT ENOUGH
COVERAGE TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY AS CLOUDS WILL BE HEADING INTO THE
REGION BY DAWN.

NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS A
STRONG DISTURBANCE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. ONE SHORT WAVE COMING AROUND THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO WESTERN SLOPES OF SOUTHEASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA AROUND NOON FRIDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO
SATURATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THIS SHORT WAVE TRACKS EAST OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. RAIN SHOWERS ADVANCE TO THE BLUE RIDGE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON THEN INTO THE FOOTHILLS LATE. THE PIEDMONT MAY NOT SEE
ANY RAIN UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND 85H
TEMPERATURES STAY WARM THROUGH THE DAY TO KEEP P-TYPE AS A COLD
RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...

DEEP CLOSED 500MB LOW OVER INDIANA WILL TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA BY SATURDAY MORNING THEN EAST TO THE
OUTER BANKS BY SATURDAY EVENING. 110 KNOT UPPER JET ROUNDS THE BASE
OF THE TROF SATURDAY THEN TROF AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW FEATURE WILL BE SUBTLE AS IT CROSSES THE
CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT BUT THEN LOW SHARPLY DEEPENS JUST OFF THE
COAST ON SATURDAY.

EXPECTING GOOD UPSLOPE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. 850 MB WINDS WILL BE 45 TO 50 KNOTS
FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST SO DIRECTION IS NOT IDEAL BUT SPEEDS ARE
CERTAINLY PLENTY STRONG. BEST PRESSURE RISES WILL BE ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AS LOW DEEPENS WHICH WILL ENHANCE WIND SPEEDS.

BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND PARTIAL THICKNESS FORECASTS SUGGEST A GRADUAL
CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW AROUND MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT IN MOST
LOCATIONS. A BETTER EASTWARD PUSH OF THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR COMES
IN SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE PRECIPITATION IN THE EAST.

MODELS PULL THE DEEP MOISTURE EAST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT FASTER THAN THE NAM. BUT EVEN NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING
SHOWS MOISTURE BECOMING SHALLOW BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. LITTLE
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WITH SUCH SHALLOW MOISTURE ON SATURDAY
NIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND
UPSLOPE WILL DIMINISH ALTHOUGH SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA SUNDAY EVENING.

HAVE UPGRADE TO A WINTER STORM WARNING. OTHER ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY
BE ISSUED LATER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...

UPPER RISING AT 500 MB MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN EVOLVES INTO A SPLIT
FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE UNITED STATES BY WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY BRING A
SHORT WAVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. INFLOW OFF THE GULF
OF MEXICO INCREASES AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. MODELS SHOWING A BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. WILL BE INCREASING THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 725 PM EDT THURSDAY...

EXPECT VFR AT ALL SITES OVERNIGHT...THOUGH SOME MODELS HINTING AT
A FEW HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR BLF/LWB TO DROP INTO MVFR
CIGS...AND THINK THIS APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN CIGS
UPSTREAM...THOUGH THIS CLOUD FIELD HAS BEEN SHRINKING. CONFIDENCE
LOW ATTM IN THE CIGS OVERNIGHT OUT WEST. HAVE NO FOG IN THE
FORECAST AS WELL BUT CANNOT RULE IT OUT COMPLETELY IF SKIES STAY
CLEAR AS WINDS ARE NEAR CALM.

LOOK FOR INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. MODELS FAVOR RAIN MOVING INTO
BLF/LWB BY 20Z...THEN BCB BEFORE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD. CIGS WILL
BE DROPPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EXPECT HIGH END MVFR/LOW END
VFR IN THE MTNS...WITH MVFR VSBYS IN RAIN.

BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD...AVIATION CONDITIONS START TO DROP TO
POOR AS THE STORM SYSTEM STRENGTHENS OVER THE CAROLINAS AND OFF
THE COAST INTO SATURDAY. COLDER AIR WORKING INTO THE MOUNTAINS
WILL SHIFT PTYPE FROM RAIN TO SNOW AT LWB/BLF...AND INTO BCB BY
SAT MORNING. LOOKING FOR SUB VFR...AS LOW AS LIFR AT TIMES IN THE
MTNS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...BEFORE THE SYSTEM SHIFTS TO OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING FROM
SOUTHERLY TO NW AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AND GUSTS OVER 45 MPH
AT THE TERMINALS AT BCB/ROA AND PERHAPS BLF COULD BE POSSIBLE SAT
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

CIGS WILL IMPROVE IN THE PIEDMONT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND BY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE BLF/LWB AREA. EXPECT MAINLY VFR INTO TUESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE AC UNITS FOR THE RADAR SHELTER ARE BAD. RADAR OPERATION WILL
BE INTERMITTENT UNTIL SUCH TIME THE AC UNITS ARE FIXED.
IF SHELTER TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS WE WILL PLACE
THE RADAR INTO STANDBY TO AVOID DAMAGE TO THE TRANSMITTER.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VAZ007-009-015.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NCZ001-018.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...RCS/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...WP
EQUIPMENT...PM




000
FXUS61 KLWX 310333
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1133 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST TONIGHT. DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL DESCEND FROM THE GREAT
LAKES FRIDAY...CROSSING THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY BEFORE
STRENGTHENING ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN RETURN INTO MONDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT DURING
MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNDER SVRL HRS OF CLRG...TEMPS RADIATED EFFECTIVELY...RIGHT PAST
PRVS MIN-T FCST. HV SVRL SITES IN THE MID-UPR 30S IN THE CENTRAL
SHEN VLY AND FOOTHILLS. DEWPTS INT HE LWR-MID 30S. HV UPDTD MIN-T
FCST BASED ON DEWPTS AND LAMP.

WITH THAT IN MIND...FROST SEEMS LKLY IN THESE LOCATIONS SINCE
TEMPS WL BE IN THE APPROPRIATE RANGE ALL NIGHT. A FREEZE ISNT OUT
OF THE QSTN...BUT HV LWR CONFIDENCE IN THAT-- CERTINALY IN TERMS
OF A WIDESPREAD OCCURENCE. HV ADDED A LATE-BREAKING/SHORT FUSED
FROST ADVY TO MOST OF CENTRAL VA. HAZARD POSTED. GRIDS HV BEEN
SENT.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHALLENGING FCST FOR THE FOLLOWING 36 HRS. N AMERICAN W.V. STLT
SHOWS A DIGGING TROF IN THE ERN PACIFIC...RIDGING W OF THE ROCKIES
W/ A SHORT WV NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG HEADING TOWARDS N DAKOTA.

THE RDG WL BE TRACKING E OF THE ROCKIES FRI...W/ THE SHORT WV
REACHING THE NRN GRT LAKES FRI MRNG. THIS WL BECOME THE PRIMARY
PLAYER IN THE FCST FOR FRI NGT. AHEAD OF THAT FRI SHOULD SEE
INCRSG CLDS W/ RLVTVLY WARM TEMPS TO END OCT - HIGHS CLOSE TO 60
WHICH IS CLOSE TO CLIMO NORMS.

HALLOWEEN EVENING SHOULD BE FAIRLY PLSNT W/ TEMPS IN THE LM50S
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THERE WL BE CHCS OF RAIN W/ OF I-81 DURG
THE EVE.

MDLS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SHORT WV SHOULD BE DIVING
ACROSS KY/TN FRI NGT...REACHING THE MTNS OF WRN NC BY SUNRISE SAT.
AS MENTIONED PCPN XPCTD TO BEGIN IN THE W DURG THE LATE AFTN
FRI...BUT BETTER CHCS WL DVLP FRI NGT W/ THE DEEPENING UPR LOW.
QUSTN TURNS TO THREAT OF WINTRY PCPN: AT THIS TIME THINK THIS WL
BE PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY ELEVATION - THE 850-1000 TCKNS LN IS STILL
WELL ABV 1300M ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA FRI NGT. BLV THAT WINTRY PCPN THAT
FALLS FRI NGT COULD BE A RA/WET SNOW MIX THAT BECOMES LARGE WET
FLAKES AT THE HIGHER ELEVS.

LOWS FRI NGT IN THE LM40S. L30S IN THE HIGHLANDS.

ON SAT THE UPR LOW WL BE PUSHING OFF THE SC CST. THIS WL KEEP THE
MID ATLC CLDY AND SHOWERY. MOISTURE WRAPPING ARND THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW WL CONT TO SPAWN SNSH AT THE HIGHER ELEVS DURG THE DAY. BY
LATE SAT SVRL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION WL BE PSBL...BUT ONLY IN THE
HIGHLANDS.

HIGHS SAT IN THE L50S E OF I-81...MU30S IN THE HIGHLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPSLOPE SNOW CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...SNOW TOTAL GRID
EXTENDED.

A COASTAL STORM SYSTEM ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA WILL TRACK
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OFFSHORE AND INTENSIFY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SATURDAY
EVENING BEFORE COMING TO AN END SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME LINGERING RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS COULD STILL EXIST AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AS WE WILL HAVE A GOOD UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE
WIND FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND COLDER AIR FILTERING IN AHEAD OF A
BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION
AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...PERHAPS AN ADDITIONAL TENTH OF AN INCH OR
TWO. STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND MIDDLE 30S
ALONG THE BAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...USHERING IN A RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF CHILLY AIR TO ONLY ALLOW
OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MIDDLE 40S AS FAR EAST AS THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY. STRONG GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT. AS A MATTER OF
FACT...DUE TO DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO FALL TO A RESULT OF WIDESPREAD LOWER 30S ACROSS THE BOARD.

AS THE HIGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND NEAR THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY
SOME DURING THE DAY BUT REMAIN A LITTLE ON THE CHILLY SIDE MONDAY
NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO GRADUALLY SLIDE INTO THE REGION AND BRING A
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A
SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLER AIR WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL PUSH THE
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AS WELL AS BRING A FEW ADDITIONAL RAIN
SHOWERS. THIS HIGH WILL BUILD IN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CIGS AROUND 5 KFT SLOWLY ERODE TONIGHT. VFR CONDS TNGT AND FRI.
CIGS INCREASE FRIDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. MVFR CONDS
XPCTD SAT AS RAIN FILLS IN ACROSS THE DC METROS.

MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP NEAR BWI AND MTN TERMINALS SATURDAY
EVENING WITH LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AT ALL TERMINALS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
AVERAGE 15 TO 25 KNOTS GUSTING 30 TO 35 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
NLY FLOW THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS. ONSHORE FLOW FRIDAY. WINDS XPCTD TO RMN BLO SCA
VALUES TNGT THRU FRI NGT. SCA LKLY NEED SAT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AS IT SHIFTS NORTH ALONG THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST. GALE CONDS PSBL FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS
SAT EVE AND SUN. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY
EVENING AS WELL.

NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY
MORNING AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...FOLLOWED BY BLOWOUT CONDITIONS SAT AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ025>027-029-
     036>040-050>052-502.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...WOODY!
LONG TERM...WITT
AVIATION...BAJ/WOODY!/WITT
MARINE...BAJ/WOODY!/WITT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS/WOODY!








000
FXUS61 KLWX 310129
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
929 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST TONIGHT. DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL DESCEND FROM THE GREAT
LAKES FRIDAY...CROSSING THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY BEFORE
STRENGTHENING ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN RETURN INTO MONDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT DURING
MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 01Z...MID LEVEL CLOUDS FROM AN UPR TROUGH PERSIST OVER THE
NRN AND WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE MIDWEST
FROM A LOW CENTERED OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF MN (PER WATER VAPOR) WILL
BEGIN TO DOMINATE THE ERN CONUS TONIGHT. THEREFORE...THE CLOUDS
OVER US SHOULD GENERALLY CLEAR EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 30S AND SOME MIXING SHOULD LIMIT FOG. 1020MB
SFC HIGH IS OVER THE ERN OH VLY. THIS HIGH CENTER WILL SHIFT TO
NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY MORNING. MIN TEMPS AROUND 40F INLAND...LOW
30S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND MID TO UPR 40S FOR NEAR SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHALLENGING FCST FOR THE FOLLOWING 36 HRS. N AMERICAN W.V. STLT
SHOWS A DIGGING TROF IN THE ERN PACIFIC...RIDGING W OF THE ROCKIES
W/ A SHORT WV NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG HEADING TOWARDS N DAKOTA.

THE RDG WL BE TRACKING E OF THE ROCKIES FRI...W/ THE SHORT WV
REACHING THE NRN GRT LAKES FRI MRNG. THIS WL BECOME THE PRIMARY
PLAYER IN THE FCST FOR FRI NGT. AHEAD OF THAT FRI SHOULD SEE
INCRSG CLDS W/ RLVTVLY WARM TEMPS TO END OCT - HIGHS CLOSE TO 60
WHICH IS CLOSE TO CLIMO NORMS.

HALLOWEEN EVENING SHOULD BE FAIRLY PLSNT W/ TEMPS IN THE LM50S
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THERE WL BE CHCS OF RAIN W/ OF I-81 DURG
THE EVE.

MDLS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SHORT WV SHOULD BE DIVING
ACROSS KY/TN FRI NGT...REACHING THE MTNS OF WRN NC BY SUNRISE SAT.
AS MENTIONED PCPN XPCTD TO BEGIN IN THE W DURG THE LATE AFTN
FRI...BUT BETTER CHCS WL DVLP FRI NGT W/ THE DEEPENING UPR LOW.
QUSTN TURNS TO THREAT OF WINTRY PCPN: AT THIS TIME THINK THIS WL
BE PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY ELEVATION - THE 850-1000 TCKNS LN IS STILL
WELL ABV 1300M ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA FRI NGT. BLV THAT WINTRY PCPN THAT
FALLS FRI NGT COULD BE A RA/WET SNOW MIX THAT BECOMES LARGE WET
FLAKES AT THE HIGHER ELEVS.

LOWS FRI NGT IN THE LM40S. L30S IN THE HIGHLANDS.

ON SAT THE UPR LOW WL BE PUSHING OFF THE SC CST. THIS WL KEEP THE
MID ATLC CLDY AND SHOWERY. MOISTURE WRAPPING ARND THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW WL CONT TO SPAWN SNSH AT THE HIGHER ELEVS DURG THE DAY. BY
LATE SAT SVRL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION WL BE PSBL...BUT ONLY IN THE
HIGHLANDS.

HIGHS SAT IN THE L50S E OF I-81...MU30S IN THE HIGHLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPSLOPE SNOW CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...SNOW TOTAL GRID
EXTENDED.

A COASTAL STORM SYSTEM ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA WILL TRACK
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OFFSHORE AND INTENSIFY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SATURDAY
EVENING BEFORE COMING TO AN END SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME LINGERING RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS COULD STILL EXIST AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AS WE WILL HAVE A GOOD UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE
WIND FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND COLDER AIR FILTERING IN AHEAD OF A
BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION
AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...PERHAPS AN ADDITIONAL TENTH OF AN INCH OR
TWO. STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND MIDDLE 30S
ALONG THE BAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...USHERING IN A RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF CHILLY AIR TO ONLY ALLOW
OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MIDDLE 40S AS FAR EAST AS THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY. STRONG GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT. AS A MATTER OF
FACT...DUE TO DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO FALL TO A RESULT OF WIDESPREAD LOWER 30S ACROSS THE BOARD.

AS THE HIGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND NEAR THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY
SOME DURING THE DAY BUT REMAIN A LITTLE ON THE CHILLY SIDE MONDAY
NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO GRADUALLY SLIDE INTO THE REGION AND BRING A
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A
SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLER AIR WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL PUSH THE
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AS WELL AS BRING A FEW ADDITIONAL RAIN
SHOWERS. THIS HIGH WILL BUILD IN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CIGS AROUND 5 KFT SLOWLY ERODE TONIGHT. VFR CONDS TNGT AND FRI.
CIGS INCREASE FRIDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. MVFR CONDS
XPCTD SAT AS RAIN FILLS IN ACROSS THE DC METROS.

MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP NEAR BWI AND MTN TERMINALS SATURDAY
EVENING WITH LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AT ALL TERMINALS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
AVERAGE 15 TO 25 KNOTS GUSTING 30 TO 35 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
NLY FLOW THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS. ONSHORE FLOW FRIDAY. WINDS XPCTD TO RMN BLO SCA
VALUES TNGT THRU FRI NGT. SCA LKLY NEED SAT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AS IT SHIFTS NORTH ALONG THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST. GALE CONDS PSBL FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS
SAT EVE AND SUN. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY
EVENING AS WELL.

NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY
MORNING AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...FOLLOWED BY BLOWOUT CONDITIONS SAT AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...JACKSON
PREVIOUS...WOOD!/KLW







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 310024
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
824 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MIDDAY SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED SFC COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE,
EXTENDING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. MEANWHILE, ~1022 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE RGN FM THE WNW. ALOFT, 2 MAIN PLAYERS
ARE A SHORTWAVE CUTTING ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE
OZARKS WITH A SECOND, STRONGER SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES THIS AFTN.

FRONT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH BUILDS
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. FORECAST LOW TEMPS EARLY FRI MORNING INTO
THE M/U30S INLAND TO ~ 50F ALONG SE COASTAL AREAS...UNDER A CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY.

FRIDAY BEGINS MOSTLY CLEAR, WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS LATE
AFTN/FRIDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION DAY AS WEAKER
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE OZARKS CARVES OUT AN EAST COAST
TROUGH INTO THE DEEP SOUTH FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, STRONGER NORTHERN
PLAINS TROUGH DROPS SOUTH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTN. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW AND STRONG SFC
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARDS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS FRIDAY AFTN AND EVENING.

ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA, HV MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY. MODEL
CROSS SECTIONS STILL SHOWING A GOOD DEAL OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR THAT
WL NEED TO BE OVERCOME...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON POP UNTIL AFTER DARK
FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. OTHERWISE, NOTHING MORE THAN
INCREASING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS TOMORROW AFTN/EVENING WITH HIGHS IN
THE U50S NORTH TO LOW 60S SOUTHEAST INCLUDING ALONG THE COAST. DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST TRICK OR TREATERS TOMORROW, WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF A FEW SPRINKLES POTENTIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST ALONG THE
COASTAL FRONT AND OVER THE PIEDMONT AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SYNOPTIC REVIEW: STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL DIG CONTINUE TO DIG
SOUTH FROM THE TN VALLEY ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH ON SATURDAY. GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT DEPICTING UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF OVER THE CAROLINAS
MIDDAY SAT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SPIN-UP SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS
OFFSHORE OF THE NC COAST SAT AFTN/EVENING, BEFORE QUICKLY EJECTING
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE SAT NGT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
COOL 1030+MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE EAST FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

FORECAST DETAILS/CONCERNS: 12Z/THU SUITE OF MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. BREEZY OVERALL ON SATURDAY, WITH BEST SURGE OF
CAA LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL SAT NGT. GIVEN FCST OF HOW FAR S UPR
LVL SYSTEM TRACKS, MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS APPEAR TO BE OVER FOR
ERN/SERN CSTL LOCATIONS (PRIMARILY) FM MIDDAY SAT INTO EARLY SAT
EVENING. ADDITIONALLY, A PERIOD OF STRONG NNE WNDS (35-45 MPH)
EXPECTED ALONG COASTAL ZONES W/AREAS OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG
THE ATLC BEACHES (SEE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW). WILL
HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN HWO. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
OVER AT LEAST SOME OF OUR COASTAL ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT FOR A 6-10
HOUR PERIOD IF CURRENT FORECAST RATIONALE PANS OUT.

PCPN WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING WAVE...AND SKY CLEARS OUT QUICKLY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SINKS FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
USHER IN THE COOLEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO DATE AND A WIDESPREAD
FROST/FREEZE IS EXPECTED TO FOR MOST LOCATIONS JUST INLAND MONDAY
MORNING..

FOR TEMPERATURES, WIDESPREAD CLOUDS, INCREASING RAIN CHCS WILL KEEP
HIGHS IN THE 50S FOR MOST ON SATURDAY, WITH TEMPS POTENTIALLY NOT
MAKING IT OUT OF THE 40S WELL INLAND. WELL MIXED ATM/BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT
STILL CHILLY WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S INLAND TO LOW 40S ALONG THE
COAST. DESPITE A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY, ONGOING CAA WILL KEEP HIGHS
SUNDAY IN THE 50S...OR ROUGHLY -1 TO -1.5 STD DEV FROM CLIMO.
THE SFC HIGH LOCATES ALONG THE SE COAST ON MONDAY, WITH RESULTANT
LOW LEVEL SW FLOW ALLOWING FOR A MODEST WARMUP MONDAY...INTO THE
U50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. BY
MONDAY MORNING LOWS SHOULD FALL TO AROUND 30-32 FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA (UPPER 20S POSSIBLE IN FAVORED COLD SPOTS)...WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER VALUES (35-40) FOR FAR SE PORTIONS. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES THIS FALL ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA. A SLOW MODERATING TREND IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD
RANGE FROM 55-60...WITH MID/UPPER 60S POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN RATHER COOL TUESDAY MORNING
RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 30S INTERIOR TO LOW 40S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS. LOWS SHOULD MODERATE INTO THE MID 40S/LOW 50S WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH THE HIGH WELL OFFSHORE AND THE RESUMPTION OF SSW FLOW.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND TRACKS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME MOISTURE APPEARS RATHER LIMITED WITH
THIS FRONT...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS ARE INCLUDED AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRI
EVENING AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TNGT.
THE HIGH DISSIPATES OVER THE REGION FRI AFTN WHILE SETTING UP A
WEAK WEDGE THAT...DUE TO THE RESULTING NE FLOW...MAY CAUSE SOME
MVFR CEILINGS TO OCCUR AT KORF AND KPHF FRI EVENING. ON FRIDAY...A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A
FEW SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE NE NC/SE VA COAST.

STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OH AND THEN TN
RIVER VALLEYS FRI INTO SAT. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP TO FORM A STRONG
COASTAL SYSTEM OFF THE OUTER BANKS LATE SAT INTO SUN. AS THIS
SYSTEM DEEPENS AND MOVES OFF THE COAST...20-30 KT N WINDS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN AFTN.


&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IMMEDIATELY WEST OF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN NNE FLOW AVERAGING
10-15KT...WITH 2-3FT SEAS AND 1-2FT WAVES IN THE BAY (2-3FT AT THE
MOUTH OF THE BAY). THE HIGH WEAKENS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FIRST WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE PULLS QUICKLY TO THE NE. A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...WITH A STRONGER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEEPENING OFF THE OUTER BANKS SATURDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG CAA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. A NNW
WIND IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY INCREASE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND A
PERIOD OF GALE CONDITIONS IS LIKELY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SCA CONDITIONS LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. AT THIS TIME A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL ZONES BUT
THE RAPPAHANNOCK/YORK/UPPER JAMES BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND RUNNING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE BAY/SOUND/LOWER
JAMES...AND MID-MORNING FOR THE OCEAN. THIS IS RATHER EARLY FOR A
GALE WATCH...BUT THE FLAG HAS BEEN RAISED GIVEN A RATHER HIGH
CONFIDENCE FORECAST. A RAMP UP SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NRN OCEAN
ZONES (N OF PARRAMORE) TO ACCOUNT FOR A LONGER NE PUSH...WHICH COULD
BUILD SEAS TO 5-7FT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. 12Z DATA INDICATES
RAPID CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING OFF THE OUTER BANKS...SO GIVEN THIS
THERE IS MUCH LESS OF A CHANCE OF A SHORT DURATION PERIOD OF STORM
FORCE GUSTS SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THEN SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH THE WIND BACKING FROM NW TO SW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN OFF THE COAST LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 1-1.5FT
ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
AND LOWER BAY. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IF THE SURGE
COINCIDES DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>634-638.
     GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/MAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KRNK 302338
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
738 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION PROMOTING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...FAIR WEATHER PERSISTING THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY FRIDAY. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY
DETERIORATE FRIDAY EVENING AS A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE FROM
CANADA MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...THEN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINTER STORM
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE HIGH COUNTRY OF NORTH CAROLINA...AND
INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF FAR WESTERN VIRGINIA VICINITY OF
MOUNT ROGERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FEET
WILL SEE THE GREATEST WINTRY IMPACT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM EDT THURSDAY...

SKIES CLEARED OUT MORE THIS EVENING THAN EARLIER FORECAST SO
LOWERED SKY COVER AND TEMPS SOME THIS EVENING INTO THE MOUNTAINS.
SCATTERED SC OUT EAST...AND LATEST RUN/NAM SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR
LOWER CLOUDS FORMING IN THE EAST OVERNIGHT WITH NE FLOW. THINK
AIRMASS IS DRY SO NOT REALLY SEEING THAT ATTM.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROMOTE GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...BEFORE CLOUDS MOVE OVER IN THE
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH MOST
AREAS BEING IN THE 30S BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. PATCHY FROST EXPECTED IN
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO ISOLATED IN RURAL LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS A
STRONG DISTURBANCE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. ONE SHORT WAVE COMING AROUND THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO WESTERN SLOPES OF SOUTHEASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA AROUND NOON FRIDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO
SATURATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THIS SHORT WAVE TRACKS EAST OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. RAIN SHOWERS ADVANCE TO THE BLUE RIDGE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON THEN INTO THE FOOTHILLS LATE. THE PIEDMONT MAY NOT SEE
ANY RAIN UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND 85H
TEMPERATURES STAY WARM THROUGH THE DAY TO KEEP P-TYPE AS A COLD
RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...

DEEP CLOSED 500MB LOW OVER INDIANA WILL TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA BY SATURDAY MORNING THEN EAST TO THE
OUTER BANKS BY SATURDAY EVENING. 110 KNOT UPPER JET ROUNDS THE BASE
OF THE TROF SATURDAY THEN TROF AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW FEATURE WILL BE SUBTLE AS IT CROSSES THE
CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT BUT THEN LOW SHARPLY DEEPENS JUST OFF THE
COAST ON SATURDAY.

EXPECTING GOOD UPSLOPE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. 850 MB WINDS WILL BE 45 TO 50 KNOTS
FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST SO DIRECTION IS NOT IDEAL BUT SPEEDS ARE
CERTAINLY PLENTY STRONG. BEST PRESSURE RISES WILL BE ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AS LOW DEEPENS WHICH WILL ENHANCE WIND SPEEDS.

BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND PARTIAL THICKNESS FORECASTS SUGGEST A GRADUAL
CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW AROUND MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT IN MOST
LOCATIONS. A BETTER EASTWARD PUSH OF THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR COMES
IN SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE PRECIPITATION IN THE EAST.

MODELS PULL THE DEEP MOISTURE EAST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT FASTER THAN THE NAM. BUT EVEN NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING
SHOWS MOISTURE BECOMING SHALLOW BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. LITTLE
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WITH SUCH SHALLOW MOISTURE ON SATURDAY
NIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND
UPSLOPE WILL DIMINISH ALTHOUGH SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA SUNDAY EVENING.

HAVE UPGRADE TO A WINTER STORM WARNING. OTHER ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY
BE ISSUED LATER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...

UPPER RISING AT 500 MB MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN EVOLVES INTO A SPLIT
FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE UNITED STATES BY WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY BRING A
SHORT WAVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. INFLOW OFF THE GULF
OF MEXICO INCREASES AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. MODELS SHOWING A BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. WILL BE INCREASING THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 725 PM EDT THURSDAY...

EXPECT VFR AT ALL SITES OVERNIGHT...THOUGH SOME MODELS HINTING AT
A FEW HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR BLF/LWB TO DROP INTO MVFR
CIGS...AND THINK THIS APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN CIGS
UPSTREAM...THOUGH THIS CLOUD FIELD HAS BEEN SHRINKING. CONFIDENCE
LOW ATTM IN THE CIGS OVERNIGHT OUT WEST. HAVE NO FOG IN THE
FORECAST AS WELL BUT CANNOT RULE IT OUT COMPLETELY IF SKIES STAY
CLEAR AS WINDS ARE NEAR CALM.

LOOK FOR INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. MODELS FAVOR RAIN MOVING INTO
BLF/LWB BY 20Z...THEN BCB BEFORE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD. CIGS WILL
BE DROPPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EXPECT HIGH END MVFR/LOW END
VFR IN THE MTNS...WITH MVFR VSBYS IN RAIN.

BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD...AVIATION CONDITIONS START TO DROP TO
POOR AS THE STORM SYSTEM STRENGTHENS OVER THE CAROLINAS AND OFF
THE COAST INTO SATURDAY. COLDER AIR WORKING INTO THE MOUNTAINS
WILL SHIFT PTYPE FROM RAIN TO SNOW AT LWB/BLF...AND INTO BCB BY
SAT MORNING. LOOKING FOR SUB VFR...AS LOW AS LIFR AT TIMES IN THE
MTNS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...BEFORE THE SYSTEM SHIFTS TO OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING FROM
SOUTHERLY TO NW AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AND GUSTS OVER 45 MPH
AT THE TERMINALS AT BCB/ROA AND PERHAPS BLF COULD BE POSSIBLE SAT
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

CIGS WILL IMPROVE IN THE PIEDMONT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND BY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE BLF/LWB AREA. EXPECT MAINLY VFR INTO TUESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE AC UNITS FOR THE RADAR SHELTER ARE BAD. RADAR OPERATION WILL
BE INTERMITTENT UNTIL SUCH TIME THE AC UNITS ARE FIXED.
IF SHELTER TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS WE WILL PLACE
THE RADAR INTO STANDBY TO AVOID DAMAGE TO THE TRANSMITTER.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VAZ007-009-015.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NCZ001-018.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...RCS/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...WP
EQUIPMENT...PM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 302013
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
413 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH FARTHER OFFSHORE TODAY.
MEANWHILE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE
AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MIDDAY SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED SFC COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE,
EXTENDING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. MEANWHILE, ~1022 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE RGN FM THE WNW. ALOFT, 2 MAIN PLAYERS
ARE A SHORTWAVE CUTTING ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE
OZARKS WITH A SECOND, STRONGER SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES THIS AFTN.

FRONT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH BUILDS
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. FORECAST LOW TEMPS EARLY FRI MORNING INTO
THE M/U30S INLAND TO ~ 50F ALONG SE COASTAL AREAS...UNDER A CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY.

FRIDAY BEGINS MOSTLY CLEAR, WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS LATE
AFTN/FRIDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION DAY AS WEAKER
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE OZARKS CARVES OUT AN EAST COAST
TROUGH INTO THE DEEP SOUTH FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, STRONGER NORTHERN
PLAINS TROUGH DROPS SOUTH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTN. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW AND STRONG SFC
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARDS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS FRIDAY AFTN AND EVENING.

ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA, HV MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY. MODEL
CROSS SECTIONS STILL SHOWING A GOOD DEAL OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR THAT
WL NEED TO BE OVERCOME...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON POP UNTIL AFTER DARK
FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. OTHERWISE, NOTHING MORE THAN
INCREASING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS TOMORROW AFTN/EVENING WITH HIGHS IN
THE U50S NORTH TO LOW 60S SOUTHEAST INCLUDING ALONG THE COAST. DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST TRICK OR TREATERS TOMORROW, WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF A FEW SPRINKLES POTENTIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST ALONG THE
COASTAL FRONT AND OVER THE PIEDMONT AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

SYNOPTIC REVIEW: STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL DIG CONTINUE TO DIG
SOUTH FROM THE TN VALLEY ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH ON SATURDAY. GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT DEPICTING UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF OVER THE CAROLINAS
MIDDAY SAT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SPIN-UP SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS
OFFSHORE OF THE NC COAST SAT AFTN/EVENING, BEFORE QUICKLY EJECTING
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE SAT NGT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
COOL 1030+MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE EAST FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

FORECAST DETAILS/CONCERNS: 12Z/THU SUITE OF MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. BREEZY OVERALL ON SATURDAY, WITH BEST SURGE OF
CAA LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL SAT NGT. GIVEN FCST OF HOW FAR S UPR
LVL SYSTEM TRACKS, MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS APPEAR TO BE OVER FOR
ERN/SERN CSTL LOCATIONS (PRIMARILY) FM MIDDAY SAT INTO EARLY SAT
EVENING. ADDITIONALLY, A PERIOD OF STRONG NNE WNDS (35-45 MPH)
EXPECTED ALONG COASTAL ZONES W/AREAS OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG
THE ATLC BEACHES (SEE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW). WILL
HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN HWO. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
OVER AT LEAST SOME OF OUR COASTAL ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT FOR A 6-10
HOUR PERIOD IF CURRENT FORECAST RATIONALE PANS OUT.

PCPN WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING WAVE...AND SKY CLEARS OUT QUICKLY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SINKS FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
USHER IN THE COOLEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO DATE AND A WIDESPREAD
FROST/FREEZE IS EXPECTED TO FOR MOST LOCATIONS JUST INLAND MONDAY
MORNING..

FOR TEMPERATURES, WIDESPREAD CLOUDS, INCREASING RAIN CHCS WILL KEEP
HIGHS IN THE 50S FOR MOST ON SATURDAY, WITH TEMPS POTENTIALLY NOT
MAKING IT OUT OF THE 40S WELL INLAND. WELL MIXED ATM/BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT
STILL CHILLY WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S INLAND TO LOW 40S ALONG THE
COAST. DESPITE A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY, ONGOING CAA WILL KEEP HIGHS
SUNDAY IN THE 50S...OR ROUGHLY -1 TO -1.5 STD DEV FROM CLIMO.
THE SFC HIGH LOCATES ALONG THE SE COAST ON MONDAY, WITH RESULTANT
LOW LEVEL SW FLOW ALLOWING FOR A MODEST WARMUP MONDAY...INTO THE
U50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. BY
MONDAY MORNING LOWS SHOULD FALL TO AROUND 30-32 FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA (UPPER 20S POSSIBLE IN FAVORED COLD SPOTS)...WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER VALUES (35-40) FOR FAR SE PORTIONS. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES THIS FALL ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA. A SLOW MODERATING TREND IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD
RANGE FROM 55-60...WITH MID/UPPER 60S POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN RATHER COOL TUESDAY MORNING
RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 30S INTERIOR TO LOW 40S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS. LOWS SHOULD MODERATE INTO THE MID 40S/LOW 50S WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH THE HIGH WELL OFFSHORE AND THE RESUMPTION OF SSW FLOW.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND TRACKS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME MOISTURE APPEARS RATHER LIMITED WITH
THIS FRONT...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS ARE INCLUDED AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HI PRES WILL BLD INTO AND OVR THE AREA TNGT INTO FRI MORNG...THEN
DISSIPATES OVR THE REGION FRI AFTN. UA/SFC LO PRES WILL THEN
AFFECT THE REGION FRI EVENG INTO SAT NGT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
INTO FRI EVENG...THEN LWR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE DUE TO RAIN FRI NGT
INTO SAT NGT. HI PRES AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUN AND MON.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IMMEDIATELY WEST OF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN NNE FLOW AVERAGING
10-15KT...WITH 2-3FT SEAS AND 1-2FT WAVES IN THE BAY (2-3FT AT THE
MOUTH OF THE BAY). THE HIGH WEAKENS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FIRST WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE PULLS QUICKLY TO THE NE. A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...WITH A STRONGER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEEPENING OFF THE OUTER BANKS SATURDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG CAA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. A NNW
WIND IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY INCREASE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND A
PERIOD OF GALE CONDITIONS IS LIKELY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SCA CONDITIONS LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. AT THIS TIME A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL ZONES BUT
THE RAPPAHANNOCK/YORK/UPPER JAMES BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND RUNNING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE BAY/SOUND/LOWER
JAMES...AND MID-MORNING FOR THE OCEAN. THIS IS RATHER EARLY FOR A
GALE WATCH...BUT THE FLAG HAS BEEN RAISED GIVEN A RATHER HIGH
CONFIDENCE FORECAST. A RAMP UP SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NRN OCEAN
ZONES (N OF PARRAMORE) TO ACCOUNT FOR A LONGER NE PUSH...WHICH COULD
BUILD SEAS TO 5-7FT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. 12Z DATA INDICATES
RAPID CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING OFF THE OUTER BANKS...SO GIVEN THIS
THERE IS MUCH LESS OF A CHANCE OF A SHORT DURATION PERIOD OF STORM
FORCE GUSTS SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THEN SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH THE WIND BACKING FROM NW TO SW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN OFF THE COAST LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 1-1.5FT
ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
AND LOWER BAY. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IF THE SURGE
COINCIDES DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>634-638.
     GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/MAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...








000
FXUS61 KRNK 302001
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
401 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION PROMOTING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...FAIR WEATHER PERSISTING THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY FRIDAY. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY
DETERIORATE FRIDAY EVENING AS A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE FROM
CANADA MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...THEN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINTER STORM
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE HIGH COUNTRY OF NORTH CAROLINA...AND
INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF FAR WESTERN VIRGINIA VICINITY OF
MOUNT ROGERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FEET
WILL SEE THE GREATEST WINTRY IMPACT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...

A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROMOTE GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...BEFORE CLOUDS MOVE OVER IN THE
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH MOST
AREAS BEING IN THE 30S BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. PATCHY FROST EXPECTED IN
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO ISOLATED IN RURAL LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS A
STRONG DISTURBANCE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. ONE SHORT WAVE COMING AROUND THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO WESTERN SLOPES OF SOUTHEASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA AROUND NOON FRIDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO
SATURATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THIS SHORT WAVE TRACKS EAST OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. RAIN SHOWERS ADVANCE TO THE BLUE RIDGE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON THEN INTO THE FOOTHILLS LATE. THE PIEDMONT MAY NOT SEE
ANY RAIN UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND 85H
TEMPERATURES STAY WARM THROUGH THE DAY TO KEEP P-TYPE AS A COLD
RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...

DEEP CLOSED 500MB LOW OVER INDIANA WILL TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA BY SATURDAY MORNING THEN EAST TO THE
OUTER BANKS BY SATURDAY EVENING. 110 KNOT UPPER JET ROUNDS THE BASE
OF THE TROF SATURDAY THEN TROF AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW FEATURE WILL BE SUBTLE AS IT CROSSES THE
CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT BUT THEN LOW SHARPLY DEEPENS JUST OFF THE
COAST ON SATURDAY.

EXPECTING GOOD UPSLOPE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. 850 MB WINDS WILL BE 45 TO 50 KNOTS
FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST SO DIRECTION IS NOT IDEAL BUT SPEEDS ARE
CERTAINLY PLENTY STRONG. BEST PRESSURE RISES WILL BE ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AS LOW DEEPENS WHICH WILL ENHANCE WIND SPEEDS.

BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND PARTIAL THICKNESS FORECASTS SUGGEST A GRADUAL
CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW AROUND MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT IN MOST
LOCATIONS. A BETTER EASTWARD PUSH OF THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR COMES
IN SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE PRECIPITATION IN THE EAST.

MODELS PULL THE DEEP MOISTURE EAST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT FASTER THAN THE NAM. BUT EVEN NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING
SHOWS MOISTURE BECOMING SHALLOW BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. LITTLE
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WITH SUCH SHALLOW MOISTURE ON SATURDAY
NIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND
UPSLOPE WILL DIMINISH ALTHOUGH SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA SUNDAY EVENING.

HAVE UPGRADE TO A WINTER STORM WARNING. OTHER ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY
BE ISSUED LATER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...

UPPER RISING AT 500 MB MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN EVOLVES INTO A SPLIT
FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE UNITED STATES BY WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY BRING A
SHORT WAVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. INFLOW OFF THE GULF
OF MEXICO INCREASES AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. MODELS SHOWING A BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. WILL BE INCREASING THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
PROMOTING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT PUSHED
HIGH-END MVFR CLOUDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. INTO THIS
EVENING...A WEST WIND ALOFT WILL ERODING CLOUDS ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. ANY CLOUDS MAKING IT TO BCB/ROA SHOULD ONLY DROP TO
LOW-END VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

EXPECTATION IS FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY FRIDAY...THEN DETERIORATING AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY IFR-LIFR CIGS AND PRECIPITATION...WITH SNOW IN
THE MOUNTAINS OF NC/WV/AND FAR WESTERN VA...AND RAIN IN THE VALLEYS.
ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO AVIATION WILL DEVELOP
WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE NC MTNS AND UP INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF FAR WRN VA AND WV. MODELS SUGGEST THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BE VERY
DYNAMIC WITH LOW FREEZING LEVELS AND HEAVY WET SNOW UNDERNEATH THE
CORE OF THE STORM WHICH IS PROGGED TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE NC
MTNS. IN ADDITION...STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THIS DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM.  STRONG CROSS BARRIER
FLOW...50 KTS...IS EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS...RESULTING IN
SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 30 KTS LEE OF THE BLUE RIDGE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THIS STORM WILL QUICKLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA SUNDAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE AC UNITS FOR THE RADAR SHELTER ARE BAD. RADAR OPERATION WILL
BE INTERMITTENT UNTIL SUCH TIME THE AC UNITS ARE FIXED.
IF SHELTER TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS WE WILL PLACE
THE RADAR INTO STANDBY TO AVOID DAMAGE TO THE TRANSMITTER.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VAZ007-009-015.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NCZ001-018.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...RCS
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...RCS
EQUIPMENT...PM




000
FXUS61 KLWX 301841
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
241 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER KENTUCKY WILL TRACK EAST TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DESCEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO COASTAL CAROLINA
SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN MONDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

NO PROBS FORESEEN TNGT. HIGH PRES OVR THE AREA. GIVEN GNRLY CLR
SKIES OVRHD LOWS W OF I-95 WL DROP INTO THE U30S..LM40S E. HIGHS
XPCTD TO DROP BLO FRZG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

CHALLENGING FCST FOR THE FOLLOWING 36 HRS. N AMERICAN W.V. STLT
SHOWS A DIGGING TROF IN THE ERN PACIFIC...RIDGING W OF THE ROCKIES
W/ A SHORT WV NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG HEADING TOWARDS N DAKOTA.

THE RDG WL BE TRACKING E OF THE ROCKIES FRI...W/ THE SHORT WV
REACHING THE NRN GRT LAKES FRI MRNG. THIS WL BECOME THE PRIMARY
PLAYER IN THE FCST FOR FRI NGT. AHEAD OF THAT FRI SHOULD SEE
INCRSG CLDS W/ RLVTVLY WARM TEMPS TO END OCT - HIGHS CLOSE TO 60
WHICH IS CLOSE TO CLIMO NORMS.

HALLOWEEN EVENING SHOULD BE FAIRLY PLSNT W/ TEMPS IN THE LM50S
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THERE WL BE CHCS OF RAIN W/ OF I-81 DURG
THE EVE.

MDLS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SHORT WV SHOULD BE DIVING
ACROSS KY/TN FRI NGT...REACHING THE MTNS OF WRN NC BY SUNRISE SAT.
AS MENTIONED PCPN XPCTD TO BEGIN IN THE W DURG THE LATE AFTN
FRI...BUT BETTER CHCS WL DVLP FRI NGT W/ THE DEEPENING UPR LOW.
QUSTN TURNS TO THREAT OF WINTRY PCPN: AT THIS TIME THINK THIS WL
BE PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY ELEVATION - THE 850-1000 TCKNS LN IS STILL
WELL ABV 1300M ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA FRI NGT. BLV THAT WINTRY PCPN THAT
FALLS FRI NGT COULD BE A RA/WET SNOW MIX THAT BECOMES LARGE WET
FLAKES AT THE HIGER ELEVS.

LOWS FRI NGT IN THE LM40S. L30S IN THE HIGHLANDS.

ON SAT THE UPR LOW WL BE PUSHING OFF THE SC CST. THIS WL KEEP THE
MID ATLC CLDY AND SHOWERY. MOISTURE WRAPPING ARND THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW WL CONT TO SPAWN SNSH AT THE HIGHER ELEVS DURG THE DAY. BY
LATE SAT SVRL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION WL BE PSBL...BUT ONLY IN THE
HIGHLANDS.

HIGHS SAT IN THE L50S E OF I-81...MU30S IN THE HIGHLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

A COASTAL STORM SYSTEM ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA WILL TRACK
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OFFSHORE AND INTENSIFY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SATURDAY
EVENING BEFORE COMING TO AN END SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME LINGERING RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS COULD STILL EXIST AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AS WE WILL HAVE A GOOD UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE
WIND FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND COLDER AIR FILTERING IN AHEAD OF A
BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION
AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...PERHAPS AN ADDITIONAL TENTH OF AN INCH OR
TWO. STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND MIDDLE 30S
ALONG THE BAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...USHERING IN A RE-INFORCING SHOT OF CHILLY AIR TO ONLY ALLOW
OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MIDDLE 40S AS FAR EAST AS THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY. STRONG GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT. AS A MATTER OF
FACT...DUE TO DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO FALL TO A RESULT OF WIDESPREAD LOWER 30S ACROSS THE BOARD.

AS THE HIGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND NEAR THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY
SOME DURING THE DAY BUT REMAIN A LITTLE ON THE CHILLY SIDE MONDAY
NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO GRADUALLY SLIDE INTO THE REGION AND BRING A
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A
SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLER AIR WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL PUSH THE
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AS WELL AS BRING A FEW ADDITIONAL RAIN
SHOWERS. THIS HIGH WILL BUILD IN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

VFR CONDS TNGT AND FRI. CIGS XPCTD TO DIMINISH FRI NGT. MVFR CONDS
XPCTD SAT.

MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP NEAR BWI AND MTN TERMINALS SATURDAY
EVENING WITH LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AT ALL TERMINALS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
AVERAGE 15 TO 25 KNOTS GUSTING 30 TO 35 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS XPCTD TO RMN BLO SCA VALUES TNGT THRU FRI NGT. SCA LKLY NEED SAT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. GALE CONDS PSBL FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS SAT EVE AND SUN.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY EVENING AS WELL.

NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS AND THEN
TRACK NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF HIGHER THAN
NORMAL TIDES FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...FOLLOWED BY BLOWOUT CONDITIONS
SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/KLW








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 301815
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
215 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH FARTHER OFFSHORE TODAY.
MEANWHILE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE
AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MIDDAY SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED SFC CDFNT WELL OFFSHORE, EXTENDING
INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. MEANWHILE, ~1022MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE RGN FM THE WNW. LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO
THE GOING FORECAST FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. MOSTLY SUNNY INLAND
WITH CONTINUED CLEARING OVER SE ZONES THROUGH THE AFTN. AFTN HIGH
TEMPS RANGING FM THE L/M60S NNW TO M/U60S SSE.

SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPS INTO THE
M/U30S INLAND TO ARND 50F ALG SE CSTL AREAS...UNDER A CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FA TO BE IN BETWEEN FNTL BNDRY (WELL) OFF THE CST AND STRONG UPR
LVL SYS DIVING SE FM THE LAKES/OH VLY FRI INTO FRI NGT. STARTING
OUT CLEAR FRI MRNG...WITH VRB/INCRSG CLDS THROUGH THE AFTN. HI
TEMPS FM THE U50S FAR NW TO L/M60S ELSW.

ALL MDLS CONT TO SHOW DYNAMIC WX SYS DEVELOP INVOF MDATLC CST FM
LT FRI THROUGH SAT. STRONG UPR LVL LO PRES CONTS TO DIVE ESE
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS...WHILE AT SAME TIME...SFC LO PRES SLOWLY
DEVELOPS OFF THE CST (INVOF LINGERING FNTL BNDRY). GIVEN FCST OF
HOW FAR S UPR LVL SYS TRACKS...MOST SGFNT IMPACTS FM THIS STORM
SITUATION APR TO BE FOR ERN/CSTL LOCATIONS (PRIMARILY) FM SAT AFTN
INTO 1ST PART OF SAT NGT. POPS TO INCRS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
SAT...W/ HIGHEST POPS (60-80%) NR THE CST...TO MNLY 30-50% POPS
ELSW. ADDITIONALLY...INCRSG CONCERN TO STRONG NNE WNDS (TO 35-45
MPH) NR THE CST ALONG W/ MINOR TO PTNTLLY MODERATE CSTL FLOODING
(INVOF SRN BAY...ALG THE ATLC BEACHES). WILL HIGHLIGHT PTNTL
IMPACTS IN HWO.

LO TEMPS FRI NGT MNLY IN THE L/M40S INLAND TO ARND 50F AT THE
IMMEDIATE CST. HI TEMPS SAT IN THE L/M50S INLAND TO ARND 60F NR
THE CST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WINDY/RAINY SAT EVE (CLOSE TO THE CST) AS STM STRENGTHENS OFFSHORE.
THE SFC LO BEGINS TO EXIT THE MDATLC CSTL WTRS AFT MDNGT SAT NGT.
CLRG FM THE W WILL BEGIN AFT 03-06Z/02.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY...BEFORE
SETTLING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A MUCH COOLER
AIRMASS WILL ACCOMPANY THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. HIGHS SUNDAY
SHOULD ONLY RISE TO 50-55 UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AS CAA
CONTINUES. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOWS FALLING TO AROUND 30-32 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
(UPPER 20S POSSIBLE IN FAVORED COLD SPOTS)...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
VALUES (35-40) FOR FAR SE PORTIONS. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES THIS FALL
(INLAND) ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A SLOW MODERATING TREND IS
EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY MOVES
OFFSHORE. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM 55-60...WITH LOW/MID 60S
BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN RATHER COOL
TUESDAY MORNING RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 30S INTERIOR TO LOW 40S
FOR SE COASTAL LOCATIONS. LOWS SHOULD MODERATE INTO THE LOW/MID
40S WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW WITH
RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HI PRES WILL BLD INTO AND OVR THE AREA TNGT INTO FRI MORNG...THEN
DISSIPATES OVR THE REGION FRI AFTN. UA/SFC LO PRES WILL THEN
AFFECT THE REGION FRI EVENG INTO SAT NGT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
INTO FRI EVENG...THEN LWR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE DUE TO RAIN FRI NGT
INTO SAT NGT. HI PRES AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUN AND MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA`S HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THRU 10AM FOR CSTL WTRS S OF THE VA/NC
BORDER WHERE 5 FT SEAS PERSIST...AND CURRITUCK SOUND DUE TO 15-20
KT WINDS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS HAVE COMMENCED OVR THE MOUTH OF THE
BAY SO HEADLINES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED THERE. FOR TDA...EXPECT N
WINDS AVGG 10-15 KT AS A COLD FRNT PUSHES S OF THE AREA AND BROAD
SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W. SIMILAR WINDS INTO TNGT WITH WEAK HI
PRES OVR THE MID ATLANTIC. THE HI DISSIPATES BY FRI...WITH
CONDITIONS REMAINING SUB-SCA (10-15 KT N WINDS AND 2-3 FT SEAS).

A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY STRONG CAA LATER SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. A NNW
WIND IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND A PERIOD
OF GALE CONDITIONS IS INCREASINGLY LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SCA CONDITIONS LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. IF RAPID CYCLOGENESIS EVENTUALLY OCCURS OFF THE VA COAST A
BRIEF PERIOD OF STORM FORCE GUSTS IS POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER BAY AND
OCEAN DURING THE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/SATURDAY EVENING TIMEFRAME.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THEN
SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/ESS
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MAS







000
FXUS61 KRNK 301721
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
121 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY PROMOTING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...FAIR WEATHER PERSISTING THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY FRIDAY.  WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY
DETERIORATE FRIDAY EVENING AS A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM FROM
CANADA MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...AND TRIGGERING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE AS IT CROSSES THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. WINTER STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY OF NORTH CAROLINA...AND INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF FAR
WESTERN VIRGINIA VICINITY OF MOUNT ROGERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FEET WILL SEE THE GREATEST WINTRY IMPACT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER INTO TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE COOLER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S WEST TO MID 60S EAST. SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD TO PATCHY FROST DEVELOPING
IN DEEP MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY THIS
EVENING AS CLOUDS DISSIPATE WITH MOST EVERYONE BEING IN THE 30S BY
SUNRISE FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT THURSDAY...

OUR FIRST WINTER STORM OF THE SEASON IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE GREATEST WINTRY IMPACT
TO OCCUR AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FEET...AND PRIMARILY ACROSS THE
NORTH CAROLINA HIGH COUNTRY AND INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA
VICINITY OF MOUNT ROGERS. NOT A GOOD WEEKEND TO VENTURE INTO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS UNLESS YOU ARE PREPARED...BACKPACKERS/CAMPERS
HEED CAUTION.

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPS SOUTH FROM THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT...BECOMING A CLOSED LOW AS IT CROSSES THE
OHIO RIVER NEAR CINCINNATI FRIDAY EVENING. THE LOW CENTER REACHES
CHARLOTTE/COLUMBIA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A SECONDARY
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

ALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE COLDEST
AIR WE HAVE SEEN THIS AUTUMN...BUT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO PASS
RAPIDLY INTO AND OUT OF OUR AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS
RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
GRADUALLY DROP THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES...WITH
THE AIR BECOMING COLD ENOUGH FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT TO
RESULT IN A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW. HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WILL
CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY.
AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE MAINLY A NORTHWEST SNOW EVENT WITH
ADVISORY LEVEL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF
THE MOUNTAINS...AND WARNING LEVEL ACCUMULATION AT ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 3000 FEET IN THE NORTH CAROLINA HIGH COUNTRY AND FAR WESTERN
VIRGINIA. SNOW TOTALS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE NOT AN ISSUE
DUE TO WARMER GROUND...AND ONCE YOU GET EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE NOT
EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION AT ALL...JUST A COLD RAIN.

BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST...CAUSING PRECIPITATION TO FADE FROM EAST TO WEST
OVER OUR AREA AS WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. WIND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE DRASTICALLY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST INCREASES TO 10MB TO
12MB. THESE HEALTHY 6 HOUR PRESSURE RISES SHIFT EASTWARD SATURDAY
NIGHT TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COAST...THEN WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX OVERNIGHT. WE WILL ALSO
HAVE TO CONSIDER WIND HEADLINES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS FADING QUICKLY IN THE NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. MOISTURE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SHALLOW THROUGH
THE NIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN RIDGES...SO ACTUALLY MAY SEE
PRECIPITATION TRANSITION MORE TO LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AS OPPOSED
TO SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 407 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE OVER THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF NEXT WEEK AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY FROM OUR AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVERHEAD
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...SO TEMPERATURES STILL PRETTY CHILLY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST ON
MONDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY... WHICH WILL BEGIN TO CARRY
WARMER AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN. THE HIGH CENTER WILL SLIDE OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ON
MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE COLD
FRONT WITH CONVECTION AHEAD AND ALONG IT WILL TRAVEL THROUGH OUR
REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
PROMOTING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT PUSHED
HIGH-END MVFR CLOUDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. INTO THIS
EVENING...A WEST WIND ALOFT WILL ERODING CLOUDS ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. ANY CLOUDS MAKING IT TO BCB/ROA SHOULD ONLY DROP TO
LOW-END VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

EXPECTATION IS FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY FRIDAY...THEN DETERIORATING AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY IFR-LIFR CIGS AND PRECIPITATION...WITH SNOW IN
THE MOUNTAINS OF NC/WV/AND FAR WESTERN VA...AND RAIN IN THE VALLEYS.
ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO AVIATION WILL DEVELOP
WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE NC MTNS AND UP INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF FAR WRN VA AND WV. MODELS SUGGEST THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BE VERY
DYNAMIC WITH LOW FREEZING LEVELS AND HEAVY WET SNOW UNDERNEATH THE
CORE OF THE STORM WHICH IS PROGGED TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE NC
MTNS. IN ADDITION...STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THIS DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM.  STRONG CROSS BARRIER
FLOW...50 KTS...IS EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS...RESULTING IN
SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 30 KTS LEE OF THE BLUE RIDGE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THIS STORM WILL QUICKLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA SUNDAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE AC UNITS FOR THE RADAR SHELTER ARE BAD. RADAR OPERATION WILL
BE INTERMITTENT UNTIL SUCH TIME THE AC UNITS ARE FIXED.
IF SHELTER TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS WE WILL PLACE
THE RADAR INTO STANDBY TO AVOID DAMAGE TO THE TRANSMITTER.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR VAZ007-009-015.
NC...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...AMS/PM/RCS
SHORT TERM...KK/NF/PM
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...PM/RCS
EQUIPMENT...PM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 301627
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1227 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH FARTHER OFFSHORE TODAY.
MEANWHILE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE
AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MIDDAY SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED SFC CDFNT WELL OFFSHORE, EXTENDING
INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. MEANWHILE, ~1022MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE RGN FM THE WNW. LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO
THE GOING FORECAST FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. MOSTLY SUNNY INLAND
WITH CONTINUED CLEARING OVER SE ZONES THROUGH THE AFTN. AFTN HIGH
TEMPS RANGING FM THE L/M60S NNW TO M/U60S SSE.

SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPS INTO THE
M/U30S INLAND TO ARND 50F ALG SE CSTL AREAS...UNDER A CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FA TO BE IN BETWEEN FNTL BNDRY (WELL) OFF THE CST AND STRONG UPR
LVL SYS DIVING SE FM THE LAKES/OH VLY FRI INTO FRI NGT. STARTING
OUT CLEAR FRI MRNG...WITH VRB/INCRSG CLDS THROUGH THE AFTN. HI
TEMPS FM THE U50S FAR NW TO L/M60S ELSW.

ALL MDLS CONT TO SHOW DYNAMIC WX SYS DEVELOP INVOF MDATLC CST FM
LT FRI THROUGH SAT. STRONG UPR LVL LO PRES CONTS TO DIVE ESE
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS...WHILE AT SAME TIME...SFC LO PRES SLOWLY
DEVELOPS OFF THE CST (INVOF LINGERING FNTL BNDRY). GIVEN FCST OF
HOW FAR S UPR LVL SYS TRACKS...MOST SGFNT IMPACTS FM THIS STORM
SITUATION APR TO BE FOR ERN/CSTL LOCATIONS (PRIMARILY) FM SAT AFTN
INTO 1ST PART OF SAT NGT. POPS TO INCRS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
SAT...W/ HIGHEST POPS (60-80%) NR THE CST...TO MNLY 30-50% POPS
ELSW. ADDITIONALLY...INCRSG CONCERN TO STRONG NNE WNDS (TO 35-45
MPH) NR THE CST ALONG W/ MINOR TO PTNTLLY MODERATE CSTL FLOODING
(INVOF SRN BAY...ALG THE ATLC BEACHES). WILL HIGHLIGHT PTNTL
IMPACTS IN HWO.

LO TEMPS FRI NGT MNLY IN THE L/M40S INLAND TO ARND 50F AT THE
IMMEDIATE CST. HI TEMPS SAT IN THE L/M50S INLAND TO ARND 60F NR
THE CST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WINDY/RAINY SAT EVE (CLOSE TO THE CST) AS STM STRENGTHENS OFFSHORE.
THE SFC LO BEGINS TO EXIT THE MDATLC CSTL WTRS AFT MDNGT SAT NGT.
CLRG FM THE W WILL BEGIN AFT 03-06Z/02.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY...BEFORE
SETTLING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A MUCH COOLER
AIRMASS WILL ACCOMPANY THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. HIGHS SUNDAY
SHOULD ONLY RISE TO 50-55 UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AS CAA
CONTINUES. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOWS FALLING TO AROUND 30-32 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
(UPPER 20S POSSIBLE IN FAVORED COLD SPOTS)...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
VALUES (35-40) FOR FAR SE PORTIONS. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES THIS FALL
(INLAND) ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A SLOW MODERATING TREND IS
EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY MOVES
OFFSHORE. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM 55-60...WITH LOW/MID 60S
BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN RATHER COOL
TUESDAY MORNING RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 30S INTERIOR TO LOW 40S
FOR SE COASTAL LOCATIONS. LOWS SHOULD MODERATE INTO THE LOW/MID
40S WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW WITH
RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH OF THE REGION AS OF 12Z...WITH WINDS NOW
AVGG OUT OF THE N AOB 10 KT. CHANCES OF RAIN HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH JUST THE OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SOME IFR/MVFR FOG FOR
ANOTHER HR OR TWO. OTHERWISE...VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD. HI PRES
BLDS IN FM THE W THIS AFTN...REMAINING OVR THE AREA AND
DISSIPATING THRU FRI AFTN. UA/SFC LO PRES WILL THEN AFFECT THE
REGION LATE FRI NGT INTO SAT NGT WITH PCPN AND LWR CIGS/VSBYS PSBL.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA`S HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THRU 10AM FOR CSTL WTRS S OF THE VA/NC
BORDER WHERE 5 FT SEAS PERSIST...AND CURRITUCK SOUND DUE TO 15-20
KT WINDS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS HAVE COMMENCED OVR THE MOUTH OF THE
BAY SO HEADLINES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED THERE. FOR TDA...EXPECT N
WINDS AVGG 10-15 KT AS A COLD FRNT PUSHES S OF THE AREA AND BROAD
SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W. SIMILAR WINDS INTO TNGT WITH WEAK HI
PRES OVR THE MID ATLANTIC. THE HI DISSIPATES BY FRI...WITH
CONDITIONS REMAINING SUB-SCA (10-15 KT N WINDS AND 2-3 FT SEAS).

A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY STRONG CAA LATER SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. A NNW
WIND IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND A PERIOD
OF GALE CONDITIONS IS INCREASINGLY LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SCA CONDITIONS LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. IF RAPID CYCLOGENESIS EVENTUALLY OCCURS OFF THE VA COAST A
BRIEF PERIOD OF STORM FORCE GUSTS IS POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER BAY AND
OCEAN DURING THE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/SATURDAY EVENING TIMEFRAME.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THEN
SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/ESS
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 301627
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1227 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH FARTHER OFFSHORE TODAY.
MEANWHILE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE
AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MIDDAY SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED SFC CDFNT WELL OFFSHORE, EXTENDING
INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. MEANWHILE, ~1022MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE RGN FM THE WNW. LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO
THE GOING FORECAST FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. MOSTLY SUNNY INLAND
WITH CONTINUED CLEARING OVER SE ZONES THROUGH THE AFTN. AFTN HIGH
TEMPS RANGING FM THE L/M60S NNW TO M/U60S SSE.

SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPS INTO THE
M/U30S INLAND TO ARND 50F ALG SE CSTL AREAS...UNDER A CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FA TO BE IN BETWEEN FNTL BNDRY (WELL) OFF THE CST AND STRONG UPR
LVL SYS DIVING SE FM THE LAKES/OH VLY FRI INTO FRI NGT. STARTING
OUT CLEAR FRI MRNG...WITH VRB/INCRSG CLDS THROUGH THE AFTN. HI
TEMPS FM THE U50S FAR NW TO L/M60S ELSW.

ALL MDLS CONT TO SHOW DYNAMIC WX SYS DEVELOP INVOF MDATLC CST FM
LT FRI THROUGH SAT. STRONG UPR LVL LO PRES CONTS TO DIVE ESE
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS...WHILE AT SAME TIME...SFC LO PRES SLOWLY
DEVELOPS OFF THE CST (INVOF LINGERING FNTL BNDRY). GIVEN FCST OF
HOW FAR S UPR LVL SYS TRACKS...MOST SGFNT IMPACTS FM THIS STORM
SITUATION APR TO BE FOR ERN/CSTL LOCATIONS (PRIMARILY) FM SAT AFTN
INTO 1ST PART OF SAT NGT. POPS TO INCRS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
SAT...W/ HIGHEST POPS (60-80%) NR THE CST...TO MNLY 30-50% POPS
ELSW. ADDITIONALLY...INCRSG CONCERN TO STRONG NNE WNDS (TO 35-45
MPH) NR THE CST ALONG W/ MINOR TO PTNTLLY MODERATE CSTL FLOODING
(INVOF SRN BAY...ALG THE ATLC BEACHES). WILL HIGHLIGHT PTNTL
IMPACTS IN HWO.

LO TEMPS FRI NGT MNLY IN THE L/M40S INLAND TO ARND 50F AT THE
IMMEDIATE CST. HI TEMPS SAT IN THE L/M50S INLAND TO ARND 60F NR
THE CST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WINDY/RAINY SAT EVE (CLOSE TO THE CST) AS STM STRENGTHENS OFFSHORE.
THE SFC LO BEGINS TO EXIT THE MDATLC CSTL WTRS AFT MDNGT SAT NGT.
CLRG FM THE W WILL BEGIN AFT 03-06Z/02.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY...BEFORE
SETTLING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A MUCH COOLER
AIRMASS WILL ACCOMPANY THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. HIGHS SUNDAY
SHOULD ONLY RISE TO 50-55 UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AS CAA
CONTINUES. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOWS FALLING TO AROUND 30-32 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
(UPPER 20S POSSIBLE IN FAVORED COLD SPOTS)...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
VALUES (35-40) FOR FAR SE PORTIONS. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES THIS FALL
(INLAND) ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A SLOW MODERATING TREND IS
EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY MOVES
OFFSHORE. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM 55-60...WITH LOW/MID 60S
BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN RATHER COOL
TUESDAY MORNING RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 30S INTERIOR TO LOW 40S
FOR SE COASTAL LOCATIONS. LOWS SHOULD MODERATE INTO THE LOW/MID
40S WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW WITH
RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH OF THE REGION AS OF 12Z...WITH WINDS NOW
AVGG OUT OF THE N AOB 10 KT. CHANCES OF RAIN HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH JUST THE OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SOME IFR/MVFR FOG FOR
ANOTHER HR OR TWO. OTHERWISE...VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD. HI PRES
BLDS IN FM THE W THIS AFTN...REMAINING OVR THE AREA AND
DISSIPATING THRU FRI AFTN. UA/SFC LO PRES WILL THEN AFFECT THE
REGION LATE FRI NGT INTO SAT NGT WITH PCPN AND LWR CIGS/VSBYS PSBL.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA`S HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THRU 10AM FOR CSTL WTRS S OF THE VA/NC
BORDER WHERE 5 FT SEAS PERSIST...AND CURRITUCK SOUND DUE TO 15-20
KT WINDS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS HAVE COMMENCED OVR THE MOUTH OF THE
BAY SO HEADLINES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED THERE. FOR TDA...EXPECT N
WINDS AVGG 10-15 KT AS A COLD FRNT PUSHES S OF THE AREA AND BROAD
SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W. SIMILAR WINDS INTO TNGT WITH WEAK HI
PRES OVR THE MID ATLANTIC. THE HI DISSIPATES BY FRI...WITH
CONDITIONS REMAINING SUB-SCA (10-15 KT N WINDS AND 2-3 FT SEAS).

A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY STRONG CAA LATER SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. A NNW
WIND IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND A PERIOD
OF GALE CONDITIONS IS INCREASINGLY LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SCA CONDITIONS LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. IF RAPID CYCLOGENESIS EVENTUALLY OCCURS OFF THE VA COAST A
BRIEF PERIOD OF STORM FORCE GUSTS IS POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER BAY AND
OCEAN DURING THE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/SATURDAY EVENING TIMEFRAME.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THEN
SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/ESS
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 301313
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
913 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DESCEND FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO COASTAL CAROLINA SATURDAY BEFORE TRACKING TO
THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN MONDAY FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH
TONIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH ONLY SOME DIURNAL
CUMULUS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 60F. FAIRLY LOW
SPREAD IN GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT... RANGING FROM
MID 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 40S IN THE METROS/BY THE BAY.

FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AMPLIFICATION WILL BE UNDERWAY AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS ALMOST DUE SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE AREA FOR MOST
OF THE DAY THE ORIENTATION OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS DOES NOT
ALLOW RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP...SO EXPECT SIMILAR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM
THE WEST...WHICH MAY ALSO HINDER TEMPERATURES. AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM NEARS...SOME SHOWERS MAY SPREAD INTO THE WV/MD MOUNTAINS BY
LATE AFTERNOON. THIS APPEARS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECASTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

THE WKND FCST WL REVOLVE ARND S/WV ENERGY PLUNGING INTO THE SERN
CONUS FRI NGT-SAT MRNG...CARVING OUT A DEEP UPR TROF/CUTOFF LOW...
INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS LT SAT...WHICH WL HEAD OUT INTO THE ATLC SAT
NGT-SUN. WHILE MDL GDNC CONTS TO DIFFER ON SPECIFICS...THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PTTN DESCRIBED ABV SEEMS TO BE NARROWING IN ON A SOLN...
ALBEIT AN ANOMOLOUS ONE.

WL FOLLOW A SCENARIO WHERE MOST OF THE ENERGY WL BE DIPPING W OF THE
CWFA FRI NGT...WHICH WL KEEP POPS HIGH W OF THE BLURDG...BUT LOW IN
THE E. GFS QPF VERBATIM ACTUALLY PAINTS THE I-95 CRRDR DRY ATTM. AM
NOT FEELING THAT CONFIDENT IN ABSOLUTES...AND HV OPTED TO KEEP CHC
POPS IN THE E...BUT EMPHASIZED AFTR MIDNGT TIMING. THIS ENERGY WLL
SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SAT...TO THE S OF THE AREA. ONCE AGAIN...THIS WL
KEEP THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PCPN AWAY FM THE IMMEDIATE AREA...THIS
TIME TO THE SOUTH. HV LKLY POPS OKV-METRO DC-DMH SWD. THEN TAPER
POPS OFF AS LOW PULLS AWAY.

DUE TO THE DEPTH OF THE LOW/EXTENT OF HGT FALLS...PTYPE BECOMES AN
ISSUE. WL PRESERVE PRVS FCSTS...WHICH CONFINES ANY MIX/SNW TO THE
APLCNS...SPCLY THE WRN SLOPES. IT WUD TAKE AN EXTREME EVENT TO BRING
ANYTHING OTHER THAN RA E OF THE MTNS IN ERLY NOV.

"BLUSTERY" LOOKS TO BE A GOOD WX WORD SAT AFTN THRU SUN STILL
LOOKING AT WINDY CONDS SAT AFTN-NGT AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND PULLS
AWAY. GDNC SUGGESTING SUSTAINED WNDS ARND 20 MPH...AND GUSTS CUD
EASLIY REACH 30-35 MPH. OF COURSE...THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE
SYSTEM WL DETERMINE THOSE DETAILS.

TOOK MIN-T UP A CPL DEGF FRI NGT DUE TO POOR RADL COOLING CONDS. SAT
NGT WILL BE PRELY BASED ON CAA. CHGS MINIMAL. IT MAY SPELL THE END
OF THE GROWING SEASON FOR MANY AREAS W OF THE BLURDG. MAXT SAT WL BE
UNSEASONABLY CHILLY. MOS HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON IT...LWR 50S E OF
THE BLURDG AND MID-UPR 40S W.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION SO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT GIVE WAY TO WAA FROM SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON
TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL WARMUP IN THIS PERIOD. A COLD
FRONT IS THEN LIKELY TO PUSH INTO THE REGION BY LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY HAVE INCLUDED A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT.
WENT WARMER ON TUESDAY GIVEN THE WAA AND 925 MB TEMPS APPROACHING
9C...GETTING THE REGION INTO THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SCATTERED CUMULUS AROUND 4-5KFT WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. DAYTIME
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NW AT LESS THAN 10KT BEFORE DECOUPLING THIS
EVENING.

FLGT RESTRICTIONS XPCTD THIS WKND AS UPR LVL ENERGY PASSES S OF
THE AREA...INITIATING LOPRES WHICH PASSES NE. MVFR SHUD GNLY
PREVAIL... BUT WUDNT RULE OUT LCL IFR FRI NGT-SAT. IN ADDITION...
WL HV WINDY CONDS /NW 20-30 KT/ SAT AFTN INTO SUN WHICH CUD AFFECT
OPS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE WATERS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. N TO NW
WINDS WILL PEAK AT 10-15KT.

A STORM SYSTEM WL AFFECT THE MARINE AREA THIS WKND. SCA CONDS LKLY
BY SAT...AND GLW PROBABLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS BY SAT AFTN
INTO SUN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS AND THEN
TRACK NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF HIGHER THAN
NORMAL TIDES FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...FOLLOWED BY BLOWOUT CONDITIONS
SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE..WOODY!
PRVS...HTS/ADS








000
FXUS61 KRNK 301148
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
748 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY PROMOTING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...FAIR WEATHER PERSISTING THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY FRIDAY.  WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY
DETERIORATE FRIDAY EVENING AS A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM FROM
CANADA MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...AND TRIGGERING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE AS IT CROSSES THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. WINTER STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY OF NORTH CAROLINA...AND INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF FAR
WESTERN VIRGINIA VICINITY OF MOUNT ROGERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FEET WILL SEE THE GREATEST WINTRY IMPACT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...

THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WILL BE THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM. 1022MB
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS THIS MORNING
WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT PROMOTING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE AIRMASS IS SEASONALLY COOL AND DRY.
PATCHY FROST IS A GOOD BET TONIGHT BUT THE BIGGER STORY IS THE STORM
SYSTEM THAT MODELS ARE ZEROING IN ON FOR HALLOWEEN NIGHT...WITH
INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR A TRICK OR TREAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT THURSDAY...

OUR FIRST WINTER STORM OF THE SEASON IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE GREATEST WINTRY IMPACT
TO OCCUR AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FEET...AND PRIMARILY ACROSS THE
NORTH CAROLINA HIGH COUNTRY AND INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA
VICINITY OF MOUNT ROGERS. NOT A GOOD WEEKEND TO VENTURE INTO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS UNLESS YOU ARE PREPARED...BACKPACKERS/CAMPERS
HEED CAUTION.

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPS SOUTH FROM THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT...BECOMING A CLOSED LOW AS IT CROSSES THE
OHIO RIVER NEAR CINCINNATI FRIDAY EVENING. THE LOW CENTER REACHES
CHARLOTTE/COLUMBIA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A SECONDARY
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

ALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE COLDEST
AIR WE HAVE SEEN THIS AUTUMN...BUT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO PASS
RAPIDLY INTO AND OUT OF OUR AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS
RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
GRADUALLY DROP THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES...WITH
THE AIR BECOMING COLD ENOUGH FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT TO
RESULT IN A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW. HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WILL
CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY.
AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE MAINLY A NORTHWEST SNOW EVENT WITH
ADVISORY LEVEL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF
THE MOUNTAINS...AND WARNING LEVEL ACCUMULATION AT ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 3000 FEET IN THE NORTH CAROLINA HIGH COUNTRY AND FAR WESTERN
VIRGINIA. SNOW TOTALS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE NOT AN ISSUE
DUE TO WARMER GROUND...AND ONCE YOU GET EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE NOT
EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION AT ALL...JUST A COLD RAIN.

BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST...CAUSING PRECIPITATION TO FADE FROM EAST TO WEST
OVER OUR AREA AS WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. WIND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE DRASTICALLY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST INCREASES TO 10MB TO
12MB. THESE HEALTHY 6 HOUR PRESSURE RISES SHIFT EASTWARD SATURDAY
NIGHT TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COAST...THEN WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX OVERNIGHT. WE WILL ALSO
HAVE TO CONSIDER WIND HEADLINES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS FADING QUICKLY IN THE NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. MOISTURE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SHALLOW THROUGH
THE NIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN RIDGES...SO ACTUALLY MAY SEE
PRECIPITATION TRANSITION MORE TO LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AS OPPOSED
TO SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 407 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE OVER THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF NEXT WEEK AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY FROM OUR AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVERHEAD
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...SO TEMPERATURES STILL PRETTY CHILLY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST ON
MONDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY... WHICH WILL BEGIN TO CARRY
WARMER AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN. THE HIGH CENTER WILL SLIDE OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ON
MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE COLD
FRONT WITH CONVECTION AHEAD AND ALONG IT WILL TRAVEL THROUGH OUR
REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TODAY AND TONIGHT PROMOTING MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS...WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

EXPECTATION IS FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY FRIDAY...THEN DETERIORATING AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY IFR-LIFR CIGS AND PRECIPITATION...WITH SNOW IN
THE MOUNTAINS OF NC/WV/AND FAR WESTERN VA...AND RAIN IN THE VALLEYS.
ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO AVIATION WILL DEVELOP
WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE NC MTNS AND UP INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF FAR WRN VA AND WV. MODELS SUGGEST THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BE VERY
DYNAMIC WITH LOW FREEZING LEVELS AND HEAVY WET SNOW UNDERNEATH THE
CORE OF THE STORM WHICH IS PROGGED TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE NC
MTNS. IN ADDITION...STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THIS DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM.  STRONG CROSS BARRIER
FLOW...50 KTS...IS EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS...RESULTING IN
SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 30 KTS LEE OF THE BLUE RIDGE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THIS STORM WILL QUICKLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA SUNDAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE AC UNITS FOR THE RADAR SHELTER ARE BAD. RADAR OPERATION WILL
BE INTERMITTENT UNTIL SUCH TIME THE AC UNITS ARE FIXED.
IF SHELTER TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS WE WILL PLACE
THE RADAR INTO STANDBY TO AVOID DAMAGE TO THE TRANSMITTER.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR VAZ007-009-015.
NC...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...AMS/PM
SHORT TERM...KK/NF/PM
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...PM
EQUIPMENT...PM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 301057
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
657 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH OFFSHORE TODAY. MEANWHILE...WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
SATURDAY BEFORE EXITING THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MRNG SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED A SFC CDFNT HAVING PUSHED S AND E
OF THE FA. THAT FNT WILL CONT TO MOVE E AND S THROUGH TDA WHILE WK
SFC HI PRES BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE RGN FM THE WNW. REGIONAL
RADAR SHOWING LAST VESTIGES OF RA INVOF EXTREME ESE VA AND CSTL NE
NC. XPCG THE RA TO TO BE OUT OF THE FA BY 12Z/30. CLRG RMNS SLO FM
THE WNW AND W/ LGT/CALM WNDS AND RA...PATCHY/AREAS OF FG HAVE
DEVELOPED OVR PORTIONS OF THE PDMNT W OF RIC.

WILL INCLUDE FG FOR MNLY AREAS W OF I95 THROUGH ABT 13Z/30...OTRW
XPCG CLRG TO CONT FM THE WNW THROUGH THE MRNG HRS (LASTLY INVOF
IMMEDIATE CST IN SE VA/NE NC). AVGG OUT P/MSNY OVR THE FA TDA...W/
HI TEMPS RANGING FM THE L/M60S NNW TO M/U60S SSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FA TO BE INBETWEEN FNTL BNDRY (WELL) OFF THE CST AND STRONG UPR
LVL SYS DIVING SE FM THE LAKES/OH VLY ON TNGT INTO FRI NGT. CLR-
PCLDY AND COOLER TNGT W/ LO TEMPS M/U30S INLAND TO ARND 50F ALG SE
CSTL AREAS. STARTING OUT MNLY SKC FRI MRNG...THEN VRB/INCRSG CLDS
BY THE AFTN. HI TEMPS FM THE U50S FAR NW TO L/M60S ELSW.

ALL MDLS CONT TO SHOW DYNAMIC WX SYS DEVELOP INVOF MDATLC CST FM
LT FRI THROUGH SAT. STRONG UPR LVL LO PRES CONTS TO DIVE ESE
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS...WHILE AT SAME TIME...SFC LO PRES SLOWLY
DEVELOPS OFF THE CST (INVOF LINGERING FNTL BNDRY). GIVEN FCST OF
HOW FAR S UPR LVL SYS TRACKS...MOST SGFNT IMPACTS FM THIS STORM
SITUATION APR TO BE FOR ERN/CSTL LOCATIONS (PRIMARILY) FM SAT AFTN
INTO 1ST PART OF SAT NGT. POPS TO INCRS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
SAT...W/ HIGHEST POPS (60-80%) NR THE CST...TO MNLY 30-50% POPS
ELSW. ADDITIONALLY...INCRSG CONCERN TO STRONG NNE WNDS (TO 35-45
MPH) NR THE CST ALONG W/ MINOR TO PTNTLLY MODERATE CSTL FLOODING
(INVOF SRN BAY...ALG THE ATLC BEACHES). WILL HIGHLIGHT PTNTL
IMPACTS IN HWO.

LO TEMPS FRI NGT MNLY IN THE L/M40S INLAND TO ARND 50F AT THE
IMMEDIATE CST. HI TEMPS SAT IN THE L/M50S INLAND TO ARND 60F NR
THE CST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WINDY/RAINY SAT EVE (CLOSE TO THE CST) AS STM STRENGTHENS OFFSHORE.
THE SFC LO BEGINS TO EXIT THE MDATLC CSTL WTRS AFT MDNGT SAT NGT.
CLRG FM THE W WILL BEGIN AFT 03-06Z/02.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY...BEFORE
SETTLING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A MUCH COOLER
AIRMASS WILL ACCOMPANY THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. HIGHS SUNDAY
SHOULD ONLY RISE TO 50-55 UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AS CAA
CONTINUES. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOWS FALLING TO AROUND 30-32 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
(UPPER 20S POSSIBLE IN FAVORED COLD SPOTS)...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
VALUES (35-40) FOR FAR SE PORTIONS. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES THIS FALL
(INLAND) ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A SLOW MODERATING TREND IS
EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY MOVES
OFFSHORE. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM 55-60...WITH LOW/MID 60S
BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN RATHER COOL
TUESDAY MORNING RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 30S INTERIOR TO LOW 40S
FOR SE COASTAL LOCATIONS. LOWS SHOULD MODERATE INTO THE LOW/MID
40S WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW WITH
RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH OF THE REGION AS OF 12Z...WITH WINDS NOW
AVGG OUT OF THE N AOB 10 KT. CHANCES OF RAIN HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH JUST THE OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SOME IFR/MVFR FOG FOR
ANOTHER HR OR TWO. OTHERWISE...VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD. HI PRES
BLDS IN FM THE W THIS AFTN...REMAINING OVR THE AREA AND
DISSIPATING THRU FRI AFTN. UA/SFC LO PRES WILL THEN AFFECT THE
REGION LATE FRI NGT INTO SAT NGT WITH PCPN AND LWR CIGS/VSBYS PSBL.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA`S HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THRU 10AM FOR CSTL WTRS S OF THE VA/NC
BORDER WHERE 5 FT SEAS PERSIST...AND CURRITUCK SOUND DUE TO 15-20
KT WINDS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS HAVE COMMENCED OVR THE MOUTH OF THE
BAY SO HEADLINES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED THERE. FOR TDA...EXPECT N
WINDS AVGG 10-15 KT AS A COLD FRNT PUSHES S OF THE AREA AND BROAD
SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W. SIMILAR WINDS INTO TNGT WITH WEAK HI
PRES OVR THE MID ATLANTIC. THE HI DISSIPATES BY FRI...WITH
CONDITIONS REMAINING SUB-SCA (10-15 KT N WINDS AND 2-3 FT SEAS).

A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY STRONG CAA LATER SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. A NNW
WIND IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND A PERIOD
OF GALE CONDITIONS IS INCREASINGLY LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SCA CONDITIONS LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. IF RAPID CYCLOGENESIS EVENTUALLY OCCURS OFF THE VA COAST A
BRIEF PERIOD OF STORM FORCE GUSTS IS POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER BAY AND
OCEAN DURING THE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/SATURDAY EVENING TIMEFRAME.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THEN
SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ633-
     658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/ESS
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB/ESS
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 301057
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
657 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH OFFSHORE TODAY. MEANWHILE...WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
SATURDAY BEFORE EXITING THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MRNG SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED A SFC CDFNT HAVING PUSHED S AND E
OF THE FA. THAT FNT WILL CONT TO MOVE E AND S THROUGH TDA WHILE WK
SFC HI PRES BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE RGN FM THE WNW. REGIONAL
RADAR SHOWING LAST VESTIGES OF RA INVOF EXTREME ESE VA AND CSTL NE
NC. XPCG THE RA TO TO BE OUT OF THE FA BY 12Z/30. CLRG RMNS SLO FM
THE WNW AND W/ LGT/CALM WNDS AND RA...PATCHY/AREAS OF FG HAVE
DEVELOPED OVR PORTIONS OF THE PDMNT W OF RIC.

WILL INCLUDE FG FOR MNLY AREAS W OF I95 THROUGH ABT 13Z/30...OTRW
XPCG CLRG TO CONT FM THE WNW THROUGH THE MRNG HRS (LASTLY INVOF
IMMEDIATE CST IN SE VA/NE NC). AVGG OUT P/MSNY OVR THE FA TDA...W/
HI TEMPS RANGING FM THE L/M60S NNW TO M/U60S SSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FA TO BE INBETWEEN FNTL BNDRY (WELL) OFF THE CST AND STRONG UPR
LVL SYS DIVING SE FM THE LAKES/OH VLY ON TNGT INTO FRI NGT. CLR-
PCLDY AND COOLER TNGT W/ LO TEMPS M/U30S INLAND TO ARND 50F ALG SE
CSTL AREAS. STARTING OUT MNLY SKC FRI MRNG...THEN VRB/INCRSG CLDS
BY THE AFTN. HI TEMPS FM THE U50S FAR NW TO L/M60S ELSW.

ALL MDLS CONT TO SHOW DYNAMIC WX SYS DEVELOP INVOF MDATLC CST FM
LT FRI THROUGH SAT. STRONG UPR LVL LO PRES CONTS TO DIVE ESE
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS...WHILE AT SAME TIME...SFC LO PRES SLOWLY
DEVELOPS OFF THE CST (INVOF LINGERING FNTL BNDRY). GIVEN FCST OF
HOW FAR S UPR LVL SYS TRACKS...MOST SGFNT IMPACTS FM THIS STORM
SITUATION APR TO BE FOR ERN/CSTL LOCATIONS (PRIMARILY) FM SAT AFTN
INTO 1ST PART OF SAT NGT. POPS TO INCRS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
SAT...W/ HIGHEST POPS (60-80%) NR THE CST...TO MNLY 30-50% POPS
ELSW. ADDITIONALLY...INCRSG CONCERN TO STRONG NNE WNDS (TO 35-45
MPH) NR THE CST ALONG W/ MINOR TO PTNTLLY MODERATE CSTL FLOODING
(INVOF SRN BAY...ALG THE ATLC BEACHES). WILL HIGHLIGHT PTNTL
IMPACTS IN HWO.

LO TEMPS FRI NGT MNLY IN THE L/M40S INLAND TO ARND 50F AT THE
IMMEDIATE CST. HI TEMPS SAT IN THE L/M50S INLAND TO ARND 60F NR
THE CST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WINDY/RAINY SAT EVE (CLOSE TO THE CST) AS STM STRENGTHENS OFFSHORE.
THE SFC LO BEGINS TO EXIT THE MDATLC CSTL WTRS AFT MDNGT SAT NGT.
CLRG FM THE W WILL BEGIN AFT 03-06Z/02.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY...BEFORE
SETTLING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A MUCH COOLER
AIRMASS WILL ACCOMPANY THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. HIGHS SUNDAY
SHOULD ONLY RISE TO 50-55 UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AS CAA
CONTINUES. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOWS FALLING TO AROUND 30-32 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
(UPPER 20S POSSIBLE IN FAVORED COLD SPOTS)...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
VALUES (35-40) FOR FAR SE PORTIONS. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES THIS FALL
(INLAND) ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A SLOW MODERATING TREND IS
EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY MOVES
OFFSHORE. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM 55-60...WITH LOW/MID 60S
BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN RATHER COOL
TUESDAY MORNING RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 30S INTERIOR TO LOW 40S
FOR SE COASTAL LOCATIONS. LOWS SHOULD MODERATE INTO THE LOW/MID
40S WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW WITH
RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH OF THE REGION AS OF 12Z...WITH WINDS NOW
AVGG OUT OF THE N AOB 10 KT. CHANCES OF RAIN HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH JUST THE OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SOME IFR/MVFR FOG FOR
ANOTHER HR OR TWO. OTHERWISE...VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD. HI PRES
BLDS IN FM THE W THIS AFTN...REMAINING OVR THE AREA AND
DISSIPATING THRU FRI AFTN. UA/SFC LO PRES WILL THEN AFFECT THE
REGION LATE FRI NGT INTO SAT NGT WITH PCPN AND LWR CIGS/VSBYS PSBL.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA`S HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THRU 10AM FOR CSTL WTRS S OF THE VA/NC
BORDER WHERE 5 FT SEAS PERSIST...AND CURRITUCK SOUND DUE TO 15-20
KT WINDS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS HAVE COMMENCED OVR THE MOUTH OF THE
BAY SO HEADLINES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED THERE. FOR TDA...EXPECT N
WINDS AVGG 10-15 KT AS A COLD FRNT PUSHES S OF THE AREA AND BROAD
SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W. SIMILAR WINDS INTO TNGT WITH WEAK HI
PRES OVR THE MID ATLANTIC. THE HI DISSIPATES BY FRI...WITH
CONDITIONS REMAINING SUB-SCA (10-15 KT N WINDS AND 2-3 FT SEAS).

A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY STRONG CAA LATER SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. A NNW
WIND IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND A PERIOD
OF GALE CONDITIONS IS INCREASINGLY LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SCA CONDITIONS LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. IF RAPID CYCLOGENESIS EVENTUALLY OCCURS OFF THE VA COAST A
BRIEF PERIOD OF STORM FORCE GUSTS IS POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER BAY AND
OCEAN DURING THE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/SATURDAY EVENING TIMEFRAME.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THEN
SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ633-
     658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/ESS
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB/ESS
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS







000
FXUS61 KRNK 300928
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
528 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY PROMOTING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...FAIR WEATHER PERSISTING THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY FRIDAY.  WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY
DETERIORATE FRIDAY EVENING AS A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM FROM
CANADA MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...AND TRIGGERING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE AS IT CROSSES THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. WINTER STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY OF NORTH CAROLINA...AND INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF FAR
WESTERN VIRGINIA VICINITY OF MOUNT ROGERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FEET WILL SEE THE GREATEST WINTRY IMPACT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...

THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WILL BE THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM. 1022MB
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS THIS MORNING
WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT PROMOTING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE AIRMASS IS SEASONALLY COOL AND DRY.
PATCHY FROST IS A GOOD BET TONIGHT BUT THE BIGGER STORY IS THE STORM
SYSTEM THAT MODELS ARE ZEROING IN ON FOR HALLOWEEN NIGHT...WITH
INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR A TRICK OR TREAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT THURSDAY...

OUR FIRST WINTER STORM OF THE SEASON IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE GREATEST WINTRY IMPACT
TO OCCUR AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FEET...AND PRIMARILY ACROSS THE
NORTH CAROLINA HIGH COUNTRY AND INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA
VICINITY OF MOUNT ROGERS. NOT A GOOD WEEKEND TO VENTURE INTO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS UNLESS YOU ARE PREPARED...BACKPACKERS/CAMPERS
HEED CAUTION.

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPS SOUTH FROM THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT...BECOMING A CLOSED LOW AS IT CROSSES THE
OHIO RIVER NEAR CINCINNATI FRIDAY EVENING. THE LOW CENTER REACHES
CHARLOTTE/COLUMBIA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A SECONDARY
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

ALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE COLDEST
AIR WE HAVE SEEN THIS AUTUMN...BUT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO PASS
RAPIDLY INTO AND OUT OF OUR AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS
RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
GRADUALLY DROP THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES...WITH
THE AIR BECOMING COLD ENOUGH FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT TO
RESULT IN A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW. HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WILL
CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY.
AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE MAINLY A NORTHWEST SNOW EVENT WITH
ADVISORY LEVEL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF
THE MOUNTAINS...AND WARNING LEVEL ACCUMULATION AT ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 3000 FEET IN THE NORTH CAROLINA HIGH COUNTRY AND FAR WESTERN
VIRGINIA. SNOW TOTALS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE NOT AN ISSUE
DUE TO WARMER GROUND...AND ONCE YOU GET EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE NOT
EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION AT ALL...JUST A COLD RAIN.

BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST...CAUSING PRECIPITATION TO FADE FROM EAST TO WEST
OVER OUR AREA AS WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. WIND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE DRASTICALLY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST INCREASES TO 10MB TO
12MB. THESE HEALTHY 6 HOUR PRESSURE RISES SHIFT EASTWARD SATURDAY
NIGHT TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COAST...THEN WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX OVERNIGHT. WE WILL ALSO
HAVE TO CONSIDER WIND HEADLINES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS FADING QUICKLY IN THE NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. MOISTURE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SHALLOW THROUGH
THE NIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN RIDGES...SO ACTUALLY MAY SEE
PRECIPITATION TRANSITION MORE TO LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AS OPPOSED
TO SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 407 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE OVER THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF NEXT WEEK AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY FROM OUR AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVERHEAD
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...SO TEMPERATURES STILL PRETTY CHILLY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST ON
MONDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY... WHICH WILL BEGIN TO CARRY
WARMER AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN. THE HIGH CENTER WILL SLIDE OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ON
MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE COLD
FRONT WITH CONVECTION AHEAD AND ALONG IT WILL TRAVEL THROUGH OUR
REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TODAY AND TONIGHT PROMOTING MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS.  SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS
EARLY THIS MORNING.  STRATUS AND FOG IS ALSO LIKELY THROUGH MID
MORNING OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL VIRGINIA...MAINLY NORTHEAST OF KLYH.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR BRIEF PD OF IFR AT KLYH AND KDAN AROUND
DAYBREAK THIS MORNING...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS ATTM.

CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM ON CIGS/VSBYS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

EXPECTATION IS FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY FRIDAY...THEN DETERIORATING AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY IFR-LIFR CIGS AND PRECIPITATION...WITH SNOW IN
THE MOUNTAINS OF NC/WV/AND FAR WESTERN VA...AND RAIN IN THE VALLEYS.
ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO AVIATION WILL DEVELOP
WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE NC MTNS AND UP INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF FAR WRN VA AND WV. MODELS SUGGEST THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BE VERY
DYNAMIC WITH LOW FREEZING LEVELS AND HEAVY WET SNOW UNDERNEATH THE
CORE OF THE STORM WHICH IS PROGGED TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE NC
MTNS. IN ADDITION...STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THIS DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM.  STRONG CROSS BARRIER
FLOW...50 KTS...IS EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS...RESULTING IN
SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 30 KTS LEE OF THE BLUE RIDGE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THIS STORM WILL QUICKLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA SUNDAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE AC UNITS FOR THE RADAR SHELTER ARE BAD. RADAR OPERATION WILL
BE INTERMITTENT UNTIL SUCH TIME THE AC UNITS ARE FIXED.
IF SHELTER TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS WE WILL PLACE
THE RADAR INTO STANDBY TO AVOID DAMAGE TO THE TRANSMITTER.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR VAZ007-009-015.
NC...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...AMS/PM
SHORT TERM...KK/NF/PM
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...PM
EQUIPMENT...PM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 300834
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
434 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY PROMOTING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...FAIR WEATHER PERSISTING THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY FRIDAY.  WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY
DETERIORATE FRIDAY EVENING AS A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM FROM
CANADA MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...AND TRIGGERING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE AS IT CROSSES THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. WINTER STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY OF NORTH CAROLINA...AND INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF FAR
WESTERN VIRGINIA VICINITY OF MOUNT ROGERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FEET WILL SEE THE GREATEST WINTRY IMPACT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...

THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WILL BE THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM. 1022MB
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS THIS MORNING
WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT PROMOTING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE AIRMASS IS SEASONALLY COOL AND DRY.
PATCHY FROST IS A GOOD BET TONIGHT BUT THE BIGGER STORY IS THE STORM
SYSTEM THAT MODELS ARE ZEROING IN ON FOR HALLOWEEN NIGHT...WITH
INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR A TRICK OR TREAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...

OUR FIRST WINTER STORM OF THE SEASON IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. MODEL CONCENSUS IS FOR THE GREATEST WINTRY IMPACT
TO OCCUR AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FEET...AND PRIMARILY ACROSS THE
NORTH CAROLINA HIGH COUNTRY AND INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA
VICINITY OF MOUNT ROGERS. NOT A GOOD WEEKEND TO VENTURE INTO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS UNLESS YOU ARE PREPARED...BACKPACKERS/CAMPERS
HEAD CAUTION.

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPS SOUTH FROM THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT...BECOMING A CLOSED LOW AS IT CROSSES THE
OHIO RIVER NEAR CINCINNATI FRIDAY EVENING. THE LOW CENTER REACHES
CHARLOTTE/COLUMBIA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A SECONDARY
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

ALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE
COLDEST AIR WE HAVE SEEN THIS AUTUMN...AND THAT THE SYSTEM WILL
PASS RAPIDLY ACROSS OUR AREA. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY DROP THROUGH
THE DAY AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES...WITH THE AIR BECOMING COLD
ENOUGH FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT TO RESULT IN A MIXTURE OF
RAIN AND SNOW. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SNOW AND EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO ALL...SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY. TOO EARLY FOR CONFIDENCE IN SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WITH WARM GROUND...UNCERTAINTY WITH SNOW RATES AND
QUESTIONS IN ACTUAL TRACK OF THE LOW CENTER. AT THIS POINT LOOKS
LIKE NORTHWEST SNOW EVENT WITH SNOW ADVISORY LEVEL ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES THE MOUNTAINS...AND WARNING
LEVEL ACCUMULATION AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FEET. SNOW TOTALS IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS NOT AN ISSUE DUE TO WARMER GROUND...AND ONCE
YOU GET EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION AT
ALL...JUST A COLD RAIN.

BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST...CAUSING PRECIPITATION TO FADE FROM EAST TO WEST
OVER OUR AREA AS WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. WIND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE DRASTICALLY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST INCREASES TO 10MB TO
12MB. THESE HEALTHY 6 HOUR PRESSURE RISES SHIFT EASTWARD SATURDAY
NIGHT TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COAST...THEN WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX OVERNIGHT. WE WILL ALSO
HAVE TO CONSIDER WIND HEADLINES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS FADING QUICKLY IN THE NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. MOISTURE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SHALLOW THROUGH
THE NIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN RIDGES... SO ACTUALLY MAY SEE
PRECIPITATION TRANSITION MORE TO LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AS OPPOSED
TO SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 407 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE OVER THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF NEXT WEEK AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY FROM OUR AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVERHEAD
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...SO TEMPERATURES STILL PRETTY CHILLY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST ON
MONDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY... WHICH WILL BEGIN TO CARRY
WARMER AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN. THE HIGH CENTER WILL SLIDE OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ON
MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE COLD
FRONT WITH CONVECTION AHEAD AND ALONG IT WILL TRAVEL THROUGH OUR
REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TODAY AND TONIGHT PROMOTING MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS.  SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS
EARLY THIS MORNING.  STRATUS AND FOG IS ALSO LIKELY THROUGH MID
MORNING OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL VIRGINIA...MAINLY NORTHEAST OF KLYH.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR BRIEF PD OF IFR AT KLYH AND KDAN AROUND
DAYBREAK THIS MORNING...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS ATTM.

CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM ON CIGS/VSBYS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

EXPECTATION IS FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY FRIDAY...THEN DETERIORATING AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY IFR-LIFR CIGS AND PRECIPITATION...WITH SNOW IN
THE MOUNTAINS OF NC/WV/AND FAR WESTERN VA...AND RAIN IN THE VALLEYS.
ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO AVIATION WILL DEVELOP
WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE NC MTNS AND UP INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF FAR WRN VA AND WV. MODELS SUGGEST THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BE VERY
DYNAMIC WITH LOW FREEZING LEVELS AND HEAVY WET SNOW UNDERNEATH THE
CORE OF THE STORM WHICH IS PROGGED TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE NC
MTNS. IN ADDITION...STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THIS DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM.  STRONG CROSS BARRIER
FLOW...50 KTS...IS EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS...RESULTING IN
SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 30 KTS LEE OF THE BLUE RIDGE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THIS STORM WILL QUICKLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA SUNDAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE AC UNITS FOR THE RADAR SHELTER ARE BAD. RADAR OPERATION WILL
BE INTERMITTENT UNTIL SUCH TIME THE AC UNITS ARE FIXED.
IF SHELTER TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS WE WILL PLACE
THE RADAR INTO STANDBY TO AVOID DAMAGE TO THE TRANSMITTER.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR VAZ007-009-015.
NC...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...AMS/PM
SHORT TERM...PM/KK
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...PM
EQUIPMENT...PM




000
FXUS61 KLWX 300754
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
354 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DESCEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THE BUILD INTO
MONDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF THE VA PIEDMONT AND
NORTHERN MD OVERNIGHT IN LOCATIONS WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLEARING SKIES INTERSECTED AFTER SUNSET. WINDS WERE ABLE TO GO CALM
AND WITHOUT STRONG ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR...THIS FOG IS EXPECTED TO
LAST A LITTLE PAST SUNRISE. THE DENSE FOG SEEMS TO BE LOCALIZED AND
SHALLOW IN NATURE SO HAVE BEEN COVERING WITH NOWCASTS...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH ONLY
SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS. IN THE MUCH CHILLIER AIRMASS BEHIND THE
DEPARTED FRONT...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 60F.
FAIRLY LOW SPREAD IN GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...RANGING
FROM MID 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 40S IN THE METROS/BY THE BAY.

FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AMPLIFICATION WILL BE UNDERWAY AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS ALMOST DUE SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE AREA FOR MOST
OF THE DAY THE ORIENTATION OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS DOES NOT
ALLOW RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP...SO EXPECT SIMILAR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM
THE WEST...WHICH MAY ALSO HINDER TEMPERATURES. AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM NEARS...SOME SHOWERS MAY SPREAD INTO THE WV/MD MOUNTAINS BY
LATE AFTERNOON. THIS APPEARS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECASTS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE WKND FCST WL REVOLVE ARND S/WV ENERGY PLUNGING INTO THE SERN
CONUS FRI NGT-SAT MRNG...CARVING OUT A DP UPR TROF/CUTOFF LOW...
INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS LT SAT...WHICH WL HEAD OUT INTO THE ATLC SAT
NGT-SUN. WHILE MDL GDNC CONTS TO DIFFER ON SPECIFICS...THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PTTN DESCRIBED ABV SEEMS TO BE NARROWING IN ON A SOLN...
ALBEIT AN ANOMOLOUS ONE.

WL FLLW A SCENARIO WHERE MOST OF THE ENERGY WL BE DIPPING W OF THE
CWFA FRI NGT...WHICH WL KEEP POPS HIGH W OF THE BLURDG...BUT LOW IN
THE E. GFS QPF VERBATIM ACTUALLY PAINTS THE I-95 CRRDR DRY ATTM. AM
NOT FEELING THAT CONFIDENT IN ABSOLUTES...AND HV OPTED TO KEEP CHC
POPS IN THE E...BUT EMPHASIZED AFTR MIDNGT TIMING. THIS ENERGY WLL
SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SAT...TO THE S OF THE AREA. ONCE AGAIN...THIS WL
KEEP THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PCPN AWAY FM THE IMMEDIATE AREA...THIS
TIME TO THE SOUTH. HV LKLY POPS OKV-METRO DC-DMH SWD. THEN TAPER
POPS OFF AS LOW PULLS AWAY.

DUE TO THE DEPTH OF THE LOW/EXTENT OF HGT FALLS...PTYPE BECOMES AN
ISSUE. WL PRESERVE PRVS FCSTS...WHICH CONFINES ANY MIX/SNW TO THE
APLCNS...SPCLY THE WRN SLOPES. IT WUD TAKE AN EXTREME EVENT TO BRING
ANYTHING OTHER THAN RA E OF THERE IN ELY NOV.

STILL LOOKING AT WINDY CONDS SAT AFTN-NGT AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND
PULLS AWAY. GDNC SUGGESTING SUSTAINED WNDS ARND 20 MPH...AND GUSTS
CUD EASLIY REACH 30-35 MPH. OF COURSE...THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE
SYSTEM WL DETERMINE THOSE DETAILS.

TOOK MIN-T UP A CPL DEGF FRI NGT DUE TO POOR RADL COOLING CONDS. SAT
NGT WILL BE PRELY BASED ON CAA. CHGS MINIMAL. IT MAY SPELL THE END
OF THE GROWING SEASON FOR MANY AREAS W OF THE BLURDG. MAXT SAT WL BE
UNSEASONABLY CHILLY. MOS HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON IT...LWR 50S E OF
THE BLURDG AND MID-UPR 40S W.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION SO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT GIVE WAY TO WAA FROM SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON
TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL WARMUP IN THIS PERIOD. A COLD
FRONT IS THEN LIKELY TO PUSH INTO THE REGION BY LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY HAVE INCLUDED A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT.
WENT WARMER ON TUESDAY GIVEN THE WAA AND 925 MB TEMPS APPROACHING
9C...GETTING THE REGION INTO THE 60S.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AREAS OF SHALLOW FOG HAVE PERSISTED OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LINGERS WITH CALM WINDS. KCHO HAS REMAINED IFR OR LOWER MOST OF THE
NIGHT...WHILE KBWI/KIAD HAVE REPORTED PATCHES OF FOG AT TIMES. THIS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE THEN GRADUALLY BURN OFF. OTHERWISE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SCATTERED CUMULUS AROUND 4-5KFT WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
STRATOCUMULUS AROUND THE SAME LEVEL COULD LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. DAYTIME WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NW AT LESS THAN 10KT BEFORE
DECOUPLING THIS EVENING.

FLGT RESTRICTIONS XPCTD THIS WKND AS UPR LVL ENERGY PASSES S OF
THE AREA...INITIATING LOPRES WHICH PASSES NE. MVFR SHUD GNLY
PREVAIL... BUT WUDNT RULE OUT LCL IFR FRI NGT-SAT. IN ADDITION...
WL HV WINDY CONDS /NW 20-30 KT/ SAT AFTN INTO SUN WHICH CUD AFFECT
OPS.
&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE WATERS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. N TO NW
WINDS WILL PEAK AT 10-15KT.

A STORM SYSTEM WL AFFECT THE MARINE AREA THIS WKND. SCA CONDS LKLY
BY SAT...AND GLW PROBABLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS BY SAT AFTN
INTO SUN.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS AND THEN
TRACK NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF HIGHER THAN
NORMAL TIDES FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...FOLLOWED BY BLOWOUT CONDITIONS
SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...HTS/GAINES
AVIATION...ADS/HTS
MARINE...ADS/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 300751
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
351 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH OFFSHORE TODAY. MEANWHILE...WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
SATURDAY BEFORE EXITING THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MRNG SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED A SFC CDFNT HAVING PUSHED S AND E
OF THE FA. THAT FNT WILL CONT TO MOVE E AND S THROUGH TDA WHILE WK
SFC HI PRES BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE RGN FM THE WNW. REGIONAL
RADAR SHOWING LAST VESTIGES OF RA INVOF EXTREME ESE VA AND CSTL NE
NC. XPCG THE RA TO TO BE OUT OF THE FA BY 12Z/30. CLRG RMNS SLO FM
THE WNW AND W/ LGT/CALM WNDS AND RA...PATCHY/AREAS OF FG HAVE
DEVELOPED OVR PORTIONS OF THE PDMNT W OF RIC.

WILL INCLUDE FG FOR MNLY AREAS W OF I95 THROUGH ABT 13Z/30...OTRW
XPCG CLRG TO CONT FM THE WNW THROUGH THE MRNG HRS (LASTLY INVOF
IMMEDIATE CST IN SE VA/NE NC). AVGG OUT P/MSNY OVR THE FA TDA...W/
HI TEMPS RANGING FM THE L/M60S NNW TO M/U60S SSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FA TO BE INBETWEEN FNTL BNDRY (WELL) OFF THE CST AND STRONG UPR
LVL SYS DIVING SE FM THE LAKES/OH VLY ON TNGT INTO FRI NGT. CLR-
PCLDY AND COOLER TNGT W/ LO TEMPS M/U30S INLAND TO ARND 50F ALG SE
CSTL AREAS. STARTING OUT MNLY SKC FRI MRNG...THEN VRB/INCRSG CLDS
BY THE AFTN. HI TEMPS FM THE U50S FAR NW TO L/M60S ELSW.

ALL MDLS CONT TO SHOW DYNAMIC WX SYS DEVELOP INVOF MDATLC CST FM
LT FRI THROUGH SAT. STRONG UPR LVL LO PRES CONTS TO DIVE ESE
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS...WHILE AT SAME TIME...SFC LO PRES SLOWLY
DEVELOPS OFF THE CST (INVOF LINGERING FNTL BNDRY). GIVEN FCST OF
HOW FAR S UPR LVL SYS TRACKS...MOST SGFNT IMPACTS FM THIS STORM
SITUATION APR TO BE FOR ERN/CSTL LOCATIONS (PRIMARILY) FM SAT AFTN
INTO 1ST PART OF SAT NGT. POPS TO INCRS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
SAT...W/ HIGHEST POPS (60-80%) NR THE CST...TO MNLY 30-50% POPS
ELSW. ADDITIONALLY...INCRSG CONCERN TO STRONG NNE WNDS (TO 35-45
MPH) NR THE CST ALONG W/ MINOR TO PTNTLLY MODERATE CSTL FLOODING
(INVOF SRN BAY...ALG THE ATLC BEACHES). WILL HIGHLIGHT PTNTL
IMPACTS IN HWO.

LO TEMPS FRI NGT MNLY IN THE L/M40S INLAND TO ARND 50F AT THE
IMMEDIATE CST. HI TEMPS SAT IN THE L/M50S INLAND TO ARND 60F NR
THE CST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WINDY/RAINY SAT EVE (CLOSE TO THE CST) AS STM STRENGTHENS OFFSHORE.
THE SFC LO BEGINS TO EXIT THE MDATLC CSTL WTRS AFT MDNGT SAT NGT.
CLRG FM THE W WILL BEGIN AFT 03-06Z/02.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY...BEFORE
SETTLING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A MUCH COOLER
AIRMASS WILL ACCOMPANY THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. HIGHS SUNDAY
SHOULD ONLY RISE TO 50-55 UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AS CAA
CONTINUES. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOWS FALLING TO AROUND 30-32 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
(UPPER 20S POSSIBLE IN FAVORED COLD SPOTS)...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
VALUES (35-40) FOR FAR SE PORTIONS. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES THIS FALL
(INLAND) ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A SLOW MODERATING TREND IS
EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY MOVES
OFFSHORE. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM 55-60...WITH LOW/MID 60S
BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN RATHER COOL
TUESDAY MORNING RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 30S INTERIOR TO LOW 40S
FOR SE COASTAL LOCATIONS. LOWS SHOULD MODERATE INTO THE LOW/MID
40S WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW WITH
RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH OF THE AREA CURRENTLY...WITH WINDS NOW
OUT OF THE N/NE AT ALL SITES. SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL AFFECTING
TAF SITES OVR HAMPTON ROADS/NE NC...STILL MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
BUT SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS. HI PRES BLDS
IN FM THE W THIS AFTN LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS THRU FRI AFTN.
UA/SFC LO PRES WILL THEN AFFECT THE REGION LATE FRI NGT INTO SAT
NGT WITH PCPN AND LWR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA`S HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THRU 7AM FOR CSTL WTRS S OF CAPE CHARLES
LIGHT WHERE 5 FT SEAS PERSIST...AND CURRITUCK SOUND DUE TO 15-20 KT
WINDS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS HAVE COMMENCED OVR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY SO
HEADLINES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED THERE. FOR TDA...EXPECT N WINDS AVGG
10-15 KT AS A COLD FRNT PUSHES S OF THE AREA AND BROAD SFC HI PRES
BLDS IN FM THE W. SIMILAR WINDS INTO TNGT WITH WEAK HI PRES OVR THE
MID ATLANTIC. THE HI DISSIPATES BY FRI...WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING
SUB-SCA (10-15 KT N WINDS AND 2-3 FT SEAS).

A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY STRONG CAA LATER SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. A NNW
WIND IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND A PERIOD
OF GALE CONDITIONS IS INCREASINGLY LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SCA CONDITIONS LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. IF RAPID CYCLOGENESIS EVENTUALLY OCCURS OFF THE VA COAST A
BRIEF PERIOD OF STORM FORCE GUSTS IS POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER BAY AND
OCEAN DURING THE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/SATURDAY EVENING TIMEFRAME.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THEN
SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ633-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/ESS
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB/ESS
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MAS/TMG/DAP
MARINE...MAS







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 300732
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
332 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH OFFSHORE TODAY. MEANWHILE...WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
SATURDAY BEFORE EXITING THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MRNG SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED A SFC CDFNT HAVING PUSHED S AND E
OF THE FA. THAT FNT WILL CONT TO MOVE E AND S THROUGH TDA WHILE WK
SFC HI PRES BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE RGN FM THE WNW. REGIONAL
RADAR SHOWING LAST VESTIGES OF RA INVOF EXTREME ESE VA AND CSTL NE
NC. XPCG THE RA TO TO BE OUT OF THE FA BY 12Z/30. CLRG RMNS SLO FM
THE WNW AND W/ LGT/CALM WNDS AND RA...PATCHY/AREAS OF FG HAVE
DEVELOPED OVR PORTIONS OF THE PDMNT W OF RIC.

WILL INCLUDE FG FOR MNLY AREAS W OF I95 THROUGH ABT 13Z/30...OTRW
XPCG CLRG TO CONT FM THE WNW THROUGH THE MRNG HRS (LASTLY INVOF
IMMEDIATE CST IN SE VA/NE NC). AVGG OUT P/MSNY OVR THE FA TDA...W/
HI TEMPS RANGING FM THE L/M60S NNW TO M/U60S SSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FA TO BE INBETWEEN FNTL BNDRY (WELL) OFF THE CST AND STRONG UPR
LVL SYS DIVING SE FM THE LAKES/OH VLY ON TNGT INTO FRI NGT. CLR-
PCLDY AND COOLER TNGT W/ LO TEMPS M/U30S INLAND TO ARND 50F ALG SE
CSTL AREAS. STARTING OUT MNLY SKC FRI MRNG...THEN VRB/INCRSG CLDS
BY THE AFTN. HI TEMPS FM THE U50S FAR NW TO L/M60S ELSW.

ALL MDLS CONT TO SHOW DYNAMIC WX SYS DEVELOP INVOF MDATLC CST FM
LT FRI THROUGH SAT. STRONG UPR LVL LO PRES CONTS TO DIVE ESE
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS...WHILE AT SAME TIME...SFC LO PRES SLOWLY
DEVELOPS OFF THE CST (INVOF LINGERING FNTL BNDRY). GIVEN FCST OF
HOW FAR S UPR LVL SYS TRACKS...MOST SGFNT IMPACTS FM THIS STORM
SITUATION APR TO BE FOR ERN/CSTL LOCATIONS (PRIMARILY) FM SAT AFTN
INTO 1ST PART OF SAT NGT. POPS TO INCRS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
SAT...W/ HIGHEST POPS (60-80%) NR THE CST...TO MNLY 30-50% POPS
ELSW. ADDITIONALLY...INCRSG CONCERN TO STRONG NNE WNDS (TO 35-45
MPH) NR THE CST ALONG W/ MINOR TO PTNTLLY MODERATE CSTL FLOODING
(INVOF SRN BAY...ALG THE ATLC BEACHES). WILL HIGHLIGHT PTNTL
IMPACTS IN HWO.

LO TEMPS FRI NGT MNLY IN THE L/M40S INLAND TO ARND 50F AT THE
IMMEDIATE CST. HI TEMPS SAT IN THE L/M50S INLAND TO ARND 60F NR
THE CST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WINDY/RAINY SAT EVE (CLOSE TO THE CST) AS STM STRENGTHENS OFFSHORE.
THE SFC LO BEGINS TO EXIT THE MDATLC CSTL WTRS AFT MDNGT SAT NGT.
CLRG FM THE W WILL BEGIN AFT 03-06Z/02.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY...BEFORE
SETTLING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A MUCH COOLER
AIRMASS WILL ACCOMPANY THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. HIGHS SUNDAY
SHOULD ONLY RISE TO 50-55 UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AS CAA
CONTINUES. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOWS FALLING TO AROUND 30-32 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
(UPPER 20S POSSIBLE IN FAVORED COLD SPOTS)...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
VALUES (35-40) FOR FAR SE PORTIONS. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES THIS FALL
(INLAND) ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A SLOW MODERATING TREND IS
EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY MOVES
OFFSHORE. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM 55-60...WITH LOW/MID 60S
BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN RATHER COOL
TUESDAY MORNING RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 30S INTERIOR TO LOW 40S
FOR SE COASTAL LOCATIONS. LOWS SHOULD MODERATE INTO THE LOW/MID
40S WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW WITH
RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT PSUHING SOUTH TO NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER CURRENTLY...WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NNE AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KECG (WHERE IT WILL
DO AROUND 01Z). SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AFFECTING TAF
SITES...STILL MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS THROUGH 06Z. HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W ON THU
CREATING VFR CONDITIONS THRU FRI AFTN. UA/SFC LO PRES WILL THEN
AFFECT THE REGION LATE FRI NGT INTO SAT NGT WITH PCPN AND LWR
CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA`S HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THRU 7AM FOR CSTL WTRS S OF CAPE CHARLES
LIGHT WHERE 5 FT SEAS PERSIST...AND CURRITUCK SOUND DUE TO 15-20 KT
WINDS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS HAVE COMMENCED OVR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY SO
HEADLINES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED THERE. FOR TDA...EXPECT N WINDS AVGG
10-15 KT AS A COLD FRNT PUSHES S OF THE AREA AND BROAD SFC HI PRES
BLDS IN FM THE W. SIMILAR WINDS INTO TNGT WITH WEAK HI PRES OVR THE
MID ATLANTIC. THE HI DISSIPATES BY FRI...WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING
SUB-SCA (10-15 KT N WINDS AND 2-3 FT SEAS).

A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY STRONG CAA LATER SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. A NNW
WIND IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND A PERIOD
OF GALE CONDITIONS IS INCREASINGLY LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SCA CONDITIONS LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. IF RAPID CYCLOGENESIS EVENTUALLY OCCURS OFF THE VA COAST A
BRIEF PERIOD OF STORM FORCE GUSTS IS POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER BAY AND
OCEAN DURING THE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/SATURDAY EVENING TIMEFRAME.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THEN
SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ633-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/ESS
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB/ESS
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...TMG/DAP
MARINE...MAS


























000
FXUS61 KRNK 300338
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1138 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A SHOT OF COLDER
AIR WILL ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND...ASSOCIATED WITH A FAST MOVING
CLIPPER SYSTEM FROM CANADA THAT WILL RESULT IN THE SPIN UP OF A
STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
AS IT REACHES THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1135 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA FROM
YANCEYVILLE NC NORTHEAST TO CHARLOTTE COURT HOUSE. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY 1AM...WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT EAST
OVERNIGHT. ADDED PATCHY FROST AND FOG INTO THE MOUNTAINS LATE. NO
OTHER CHANGES NEED TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 30S WEST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

HAVE ADDED MORE CLOUD COVER IN FOR THE FAR WEST THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR BLF AND LWB SUGGEST IT MAY TAKE
MOST OF THE DAY FOR THESE CLOUDS TO CLEAR. MODELS AND BUFKIT DATA
SHOWED DRY AIR AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS AS WELL AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO THE -2 TO +2 RANGE BY THURSDAY MORNING.
EXPECT NORTHWEST UPSLOPE WINDS TONIGHT BUT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BY MORNING WINDS WILL
DIMINISH. STAYED ON COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST WHERE MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 407 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

OUR FIRST WINTER STORM OF THE SEASON MAY BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPS SOUTH FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT...BECOMING A CLOSED LOW AS IT
CROSSES THE OHIO RIVER NEAR CINCINNATI FRIDAY EVENING. THE LOW
CENTER REACHES CHARLOTTE/COLUMBIA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. A SECONDARY SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ALONG THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

CLOUDS INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND FREEZING IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO THE UPPER 30S IN THE
PIEDMONT. SHOWERS WILL ENTER OUR WESTERN SLOPES FRIDAY MORNING...AND
SPREAD EAST AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPS SOUTH FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION
STARTS AS RAIN.

ALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE COLDEST
AIR WE HAVE SEEN THIS AUTUMN...AND THAT THE SYSTEM WILL PASS RAPIDLY
ACROSS OUR AREA. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY DROP THROUGH THE DAY AS
THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES...WITH THE AIR BECOMING COLD ENOUGH FRIDAY
EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT TO RESULT IN A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW.
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW AND
EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO ALL...SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY
EARLY SATURDAY.  TOO EARLY FOR CONFIDENCE IN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH
WARM GROUND...UNCERTAINTY WITH SNOW RATES AND QUESTIONS IN ACTUAL
TRACK OF THE LOW CENTER. AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE NORTHWEST SNOW
EVENT WITH SNOW ADVISORY LEVEL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES THE MOUNTAINS...THEN ANY SNOW TOTALS WILL DECREASE AS
ONE HEADS EAST. LEANED TOWARDS THE GFS OVER THE NAM SOLUTION
REGARDING SNOW TOTALS.

BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST...CAUSING PRECIPITATION TO FADE FROM EAST TO WEST
OVER OUR AREA AS WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. WIND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE DRASTICALLY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST INCREASES TO 10MB TO
12MB. THESE HEALTHY 6 HOUR PRESSURE RISES SHIFT EASTWARD SATURDAY
NIGHT TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COAST...THEN WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX OVERNIGHT. WE WILL ALSO
HAVE TO CONSIDER WIND HEADLINES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS FADING QUICKLY IN THE NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. MOISTURE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SHALLOW THROUGH
THE NIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN RIDGES... SO ACTUALLY MAY SEE
PRECIPITATION TRANSITION MORE TO LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AS OPPOSED
TO SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 407 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE OVER THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF NEXT WEEK AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY FROM OUR AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVERHEAD
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...SO TEMPERATURES STILL PRETTY CHILLY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST ON
MONDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY... WHICH WILL BEGIN TO CARRY
WARMER AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN. THE HIGH CENTER WILL SLIDE OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ON
MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE COLD
FRONT WITH CONVECTION AHEAD AND ALONG IT WILL TRAVEL THROUGH OUR
REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 714 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

CIGS WILL STAY VFR WITH MID DECK CLEARING THE LYH/DAN AREA BY
MIDNIGHT-2AM EDT. THE 18Z NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH CLOUDS IN
THE WRN SLOPES LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT LEANED TOWARD MORE
OPTIMISTIC CMC/GFS SHOWING SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 2-4KFT FROM
ROA-BCB WEST THURSDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME BKN CIGS AT BLF IN THE
MORNING BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME FOR THIS.

WITH SOME GROUND MOISTURE FROM THE SHOWERS...A POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR MVFR/IFR FOG AROUND 09Z AT BLF/LWB ERODING BY 12Z.

CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM ON CIGS/VSBYS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

MAINLY EXPECTING VFR INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE A STRONG STORM
SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY IFR- LIFR CIGS AND
PRECIPITATION...-SHSN OR -SN BLF/LWB AREA...WITH -RA ELSEWHERE.
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AND
HOW MUCH PRECIP FALLS BUT LOOKS LIKE AVIATION ISSUES WILL ABOUND
FROM THE CAROLINAS UP THE EAST COAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC OVER
THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL ALSO BE STRONG AND GUSTY AS COLDER AIR
FILTERS INTO THE SYSTEM AND AS LOW PRESSURE EVOLVES WITH TIME.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE AC UNITS FOR THE RADAR SHELTER ARE BAD. RADAR OPERATION WILL
BE INTERMITTENT UNTIL SUCH TIME THE AC UNITS ARE FIXED.
IF SHELTER TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS WE WILL PLACE
THE RADAR INTO STANDBY TO AVOID DAMAGE TO THE TRANSMITTER.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...AMS/PW/WP
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...AMS/RCS/WP
EQUIPMENT...PM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 300200
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1000 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING AND OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY BEFORE EXITING THE
AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW APPROACHING THE VA/NC BORDER...HAD SOME
WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT ALONG THE COAST...WITH A MORE MODEST
SHIFT TO NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 KT FARTHER INLAND. FORECAST GENLY
IN GOOD SHAPE...WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT AS MAINLY LIGHT ANA-FRONTAL PRECIP STILL ONGOING OVER
MUCH OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR...WITH SCATTERED HEAVIER SHOWERS OVER
THE VA ERN SHORE AND TO THE SSW IN NC.

BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS...EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AND ALSO IN QPF FOR FAR SE VA AND NE NC AS THE FRONT SLOWLY DROPS
INTO NC.

THE SATELLITE SHOWS THAT THE CLEARING LINE IS QUICKLY EXITING THE
MOUNTAINS AND SHOULD REACH TOWARD THE I-95 CORRIDOR BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE SHOWERS AT THAT TIME.
THIS CLEARING LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE PROGRESS SE TONIGHT AND
BY 10 TO 12Z...THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL HAVE COME TO AN END.
OVERALL...QPF SHOULD BE AROUND 0.25" - 0.50" IN THE SE AND AROUND
0.10" TO 0.20" OR LESS ELSEWHERE.

TEMPERATURES HAVE RAPIDLY DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
OVER MOST AREAS...OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD AVG IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S
NW TO THE LWR 50S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT AND THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE
REGIONS WEATHER. THIS WILL LEAD TO MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT WINDS. WITH THE COOLING ALOFT BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ON THURSDAY WITH GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

THE BIG PART OF THE MID RANGE TIME FRAME IS A STRONG DIGGING
TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE THAT DIGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND CLOSES
OFF OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE DIGGING TROUGH INDUCING
A STRONG SFC LOW TO FORM OFF THE CAROLINA/VA COAST. BUT FOR
DETAILS...THE 12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW UNCERTAINTY AS THE
NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL HAVE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TIMING AND DIFFERENT
LOCATIONS FOR THE SFC LOW TO DEVELOP. RIGHT NOW HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH IS A MIDDLE GROUND BETWEEN THE NAM
TO THE SOUTH AND 00Z ECMWF WHICH WAS TO THE NORTH. THE 12Z ECMWF
CAME IN FURTHER SOUTH...BUT WITH THE LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE
NORTHERN OUTER BANKS IS A FAVORED LOCATION SO LEAN THAT DIRECTION.
AS THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS...SHOULD SEE CLOUDS INCREASE FRIDAY
EVENING WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING LATE IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL SHIFT SE OVERNIGHT AS THE
SFC LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP FOLLOWED BY A WIND SHIFT TO THE NE OVER
THE CWA. THIS NE FLOW WILL HELP TO BRING MORE MOISTURE IN AND HELP
CREATE A WET/COOL DAY ON SATURDAY. AS THE SFC LOW DEVELOPS AND
SLIDES OFF THE COAST...THE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND THE RAIN WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE THE LOW EXITS BY SUN MORNING. THE
WINDS..20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUST TO 40..MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A
WIND ADVISORY ALONG THE COAST FROM NORFOLK THROUGH THE OUTER BANKS
SAT AFTN/EVENING.

FOR TEMPS FRI NIGHT - SAT NIGHT...WITH THE COOL AIR ALOFT COMING
IN...WILL SEE TEMPS IN THE 40S FRI. SATURDAY WITH THE CLOUDY AND
DAMP CONDITIONS WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 50S. GUIDANCE HOWEVER HAS
BEEN SHOWING A WARMING TREND OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS...BUT CURRENT
12Z MEX SHOWING READINGS IN THE 60S LOOKS UNREALISTIC. FOR SAT
NIGHT...HAVE KEPT READINGS IN THE 40S THINKING THAT CLOUDS WILL BE
SLOW TO CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO RELAX.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY...BEFORE
SETTLING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A MUCH COOLER
AIRMASS WILL ACCOMPANY THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. HIGHS SUNDAY
SHOULD ONLY RISE TO 50-55 UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AS CAA CONTINUES.
THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
LOWS FALLING TO AROUND 30-32 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA (UPPER 20S
POSSIBLE IN FAVORED COLD SPOTS)...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES
(35-40) FOR FAR SE PORTIONS. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE THE
FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES THIS FALL ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. A SLOW MODERATING TREND IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM
55-60...WITH LOW/MID 60S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULD REMAIN RATHER COOL TUESDAY MORNING RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID
30S INTERIOR TO LOW 40S FOR SE COASTAL LOCATIONS. LOWS SHOULD
MODERATE INTO THE LOW/MID 40S WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NW DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS
RATHER LOW WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH
THIS FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT PSUHING SOUTH TO NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER CURRENTLY...WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NNE AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KECG (WHERE IT WILL
DO AROUND 01Z). SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AFFECTING TAF
SITES...STILL MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS THROUGH 06Z. HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W ON THU
CREATING VFR CONDITIONS THRU FRI AFTN. UA/SFC LO PRES WILL THEN
AFFECT THE REGION LATE FRI NGT INTO SAT NGT WITH PCPN AND LWR
CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
CONTINUED SCA`S FOR THE COASTAL WATERS S OF CAPE CHARLES AND CURRITUCK
SOUND AND THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. 15-20 KT WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND
25 KT WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY THU AM HRS. SEAS FOR NC COASTAL
WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 5 FT...GENLY 4 FT OR LESS
ELSEWHERE.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY AND THEN DISSIPATES BY
FRIDAY. A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY STRONG CAA LATER
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NW. A NNW WIND IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND A PERIOD OF GALE CONDITIONS IS INCREASINGLY LIKELY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SCA CONDITIONS
LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. IF RAPID CYCLOGENESIS EVENTUALLY
OCCURS OFF THE VA COAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF STORM FORCE GUSTS IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER BAY AND OCEAN DURING THE LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/SATURDAY EVENING TIMEFRAME. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THEN SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ634-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ633-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS
NEAR TERM...ESS/LKB
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...TMG/DAP
MARINE...AJZ/DAP







000
FXUS61 KRNK 300147
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
947 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A SHOT OF COLDER
AIR WILL ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND...ASSOCIATED WITH A FAST MOVING
CLIPPER SYSTEM FROM CANADA THAT WILL RESULT IN THE SPIN UP OF A
STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
AS IT REACHES THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 945 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

A STRAY SHOWER IS MOVING OVER GREENSBORO NORTH CAROLINA AT THIS
HOUR...AND THE TREND ON RADAR INDICATES KEEPING POPS HIGHER OVER
THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA FOR THE NEXT TWO HOURS
THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST
APPEARS ON TRACK...WITH MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD AFTER MIDNIGHT SHOULD
ALLOW THE WINDS TO SLACKEN. THE 00Z RNK SOUNDING SHOWS PLENTY OF
DRY AIR ALOFT...AS THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IS JUST 0.37 INCHES.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FORECAST REFLECTS REDUCING POPS IN THE EAST WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAINING FROM FVX-DAN-SIF...ALONG THE BACK EDGE
OF THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR. DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST PER
CHANCE IN THETA-E AND DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
THINK THE SKIES WILL BE CLEARING A LITTLE FASTER AS WELL...SO
LOWERED TEMPS SOME THIS EVENING AS LATEST TRENDS SHOW COOLER
READINGS THAN EARLIER FORECAST. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE EAST
OF THE CWA BY 9 PM.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...MAINLY BELOW 850 MB...RETURNS TO THE UPSLOPE
AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE ADDED MORE CLOUD COVER IN FOR THE FAR
WEST THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR BLF AND LWB
SUGGEST IT MAY TAKE MOST OF THE DAY FOR THESE CLOUDS TO CLEAR.
MODELS AND BUFKIT DATA SHOWED DRY AIR AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS AS
WELL AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO THE -2 TO +2 RANGE BY
THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT NORTHWEST UPSLOPE WINDS TONIGHT BUT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BY MORNING
WINDS WILL DIMINISH. STAYED ON COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST WHERE MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 407 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

OUR FIRST WINTER STORM OF THE SEASON MAY BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPS SOUTH FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT...BECOMING A CLOSED LOW AS IT
CROSSES THE OHIO RIVER NEAR CINCINNATI FRIDAY EVENING. THE LOW
CENTER REACHES CHARLOTTE/COLUMBIA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. A SECONDARY SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ALONG THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

CLOUDS INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND FREEZING IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO THE UPPER 30S IN THE
PIEDMONT. SHOWERS WILL ENTER OUR WESTERN SLOPES FRIDAY MORNING...AND
SPREAD EAST AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPS SOUTH FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION
STARTS AS RAIN.

ALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE COLDEST
AIR WE HAVE SEEN THIS AUTUMN...AND THAT THE SYSTEM WILL PASS RAPIDLY
ACROSS OUR AREA. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY DROP THROUGH THE DAY AS
THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES...WITH THE AIR BECOMING COLD ENOUGH FRIDAY
EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT TO RESULT IN A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW.
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW AND
EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO ALL...SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY
EARLY SATURDAY.  TOO EARLY FOR CONFIDENCE IN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH
WARM GROUND...UNCERTAINTY WITH SNOW RATES AND QUESTIONS IN ACTUAL
TRACK OF THE LOW CENTER. AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE NORTHWEST SNOW
EVENT WITH SNOW ADVISORY LEVEL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES THE MOUNTAINS...THEN ANY SNOW TOTALS WILL DECREASE AS
ONE HEADS EAST. LEANED TOWARDS THE GFS OVER THE NAM SOLUTION
REGARDING SNOW TOTALS.

BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST...CAUSING PRECIPITATION TO FADE FROM EAST TO WEST
OVER OUR AREA AS WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. WIND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE DRASTICALLY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST INCREASES TO 10MB TO
12MB. THESE HEALTHY 6 HOUR PRESSURE RISES SHIFT EASTWARD SATURDAY
NIGHT TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COAST...THEN WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX OVERNIGHT. WE WILL ALSO
HAVE TO CONSIDER WIND HEADLINES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS FADING QUICKLY IN THE NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. MOISTURE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SHALLOW THROUGH
THE NIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN RIDGES... SO ACTUALLY MAY SEE
PRECIPITATION TRANSITION MORE TO LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AS OPPOSED
TO SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 407 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE OVER THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF NEXT WEEK AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY FROM OUR AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVERHEAD
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...SO TEMPERATURES STILL PRETTY CHILLY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST ON
MONDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY... WHICH WILL BEGIN TO CARRY
WARMER AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN. THE HIGH CENTER WILL SLIDE OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ON
MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE COLD
FRONT WITH CONVECTION AHEAD AND ALONG IT WILL TRAVEL THROUGH OUR
REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 714 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

CIGS WILL STAY VFR WITH MID DECK CLEARING THE LYH/DAN AREA BY
MIDNIGHT-2AM EDT. THE 18Z NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH CLOUDS IN
THE WRN SLOPES LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT LEANED TOWARD MORE
OPTIMISTIC CMC/GFS SHOWING SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 2-4KFT FROM
ROA-BCB WEST THURSDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME BKN CIGS AT BLF IN THE
MORNING BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME FOR THIS.

WITH SOME GROUND MOISTURE FROM THE SHOWERS...A POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR MVFR/IFR FOG AROUND 09Z AT BLF/LWB ERODING BY 12Z.

CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM ON CIGS/VSBYS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

MAINLY EXPECTING VFR INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE A STRONG STORM
SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY IFR- LIFR CIGS AND
PRECIPITATION...-SHSN OR -SN BLF/LWB AREA...WITH -RA ELSEWHERE.
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AND
HOW MUCH PRECIP FALLS BUT LOOKS LIKE AVIATION ISSUES WILL ABOUND
FROM THE CAROLINAS UP THE EAST COAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC OVER
THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL ALSO BE STRONG AND GUSTY AS COLDER AIR
FILTERS INTO THE SYSTEM AND AS LOW PRESSURE EVOLVES WITH TIME.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE AC UNITS FOR THE RADAR SHELTER ARE BAD. RADAR OPERATION WILL
BE INTERMITTENT UNTIL SUCH TIME THE AC UNITS ARE FIXED.
IF SHELTER TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS WE WILL PLACE
THE RADAR INTO STANDBY TO AVOID DAMAGE TO THE TRANSMITTER.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...AMS/PW/WP
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...AMS/RCS/WP
EQUIPMENT...PM




000
FXUS61 KLWX 300125
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
925 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE AREA
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER ILLINOIS AND MISSOURI WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DESCEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE CAROLINAS
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THE BUILD
INTO MONDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 01Z...1022MB SFC HIGH IS OVER IL/MO. LEADING EDGE OF COLD
FRON IS MOVING THROUGH NERN NC WITH ANA-FRONTAL PRECIP EXTENDING
BACK TO SRN MD. THE FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
EVENING.

GROUND FOG IN AREAS THAT GOT RAIN THEN CLEARED OUT THIS EVENING
WILL NOT LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT DUE TO A BREEZE IN THE SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

COOL...CANADIAN AIR WILL BE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY...MAX TEMPS
WILL STRUGGLE TO HIT 60F WITH A NW FLOW 10 TO 12 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. DRY. NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF
STORM SYSTEMS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND CAROLINAS. FAIRLY LOW
SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THIS PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: THE TRACK AND INTENSITY ALONG IF
ANY INTERACTION BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS APPROACHING THE REGION
HAS BEEN A STRUGGLE TO SAY THE LEAST FOR THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND
THE RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. HOWEVER THERE HAS
BEEN MORE CONSISTENCY OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINA COAST MOVES OUT TO SEA
GOING EAST OF CAPE COD. THEN THE LOW ACROSS OHIO VALLEY MOVES EAST
ALONG A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED TO NO INTERACTION BETWEEN THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS DIVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. THIS WOULD
BRING IN SOME RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY PERHAPS
MIXED WITH WET SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. WITH STEADIER PRECIPITATION
DYNAMICAL COOLING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD CHANGE RAIN OVER TO
SNOW AS WELL, STILL WAY TO EARLY TO HONE IN ON ANY POTENTIAL
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD THIS OPTION OCCUR. HOWEVER WE DID PUT IN SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF VA/WV AND MD.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH VERY WINDY NOW AND WE COULD EASILY
SEE SOME GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS.
TEMPERATURES WERE KEPT DOWN OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE STEADIEST
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. AREAS FROM DC TO BWI WILL LIKELY
SEE MORE INTERMITTENT SHOWERS AND MORE OF A EAST FLOW OFF THE WATER
ALLOWING HIGH TO GET TO CLOSE TO 50 ON SATURDAY. MET, MAV GUIDANCE
SETS ALONG WITH THE ECMWF WERE INCORPORATED IN THESE PERIODS. WINDS
WILL SWITCH TO NORTHWESTERLY BY SUNDAY WITH STRONG CAA. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT WE MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
PRESENTED BY THE MET AND MAV AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE ON SUNDAY.


MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION SO
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT GIVE WAY TO WAA FROM
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
GRADUAL WARMUP IN THIS PERIOD. A COLD FRONT IS THEN LIKELY TO PUSH
INTO THE REGION BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY HAVE INCLUDED A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT. WENT WARMER ON TUESDAY GIVEN THE
WAA AND 925 MB TEMPS APPROACHING 9C, GETTING THE REGION INTO THE
60`S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR WITH A LIGHT NW WIND OVERNIGHT. ANY GROUND FOG THIS EVENING SHOULD
NOT LAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT DUE TO LIGHT BREEZE.

THURSDAY...VFR WITH DIURNAL SC IN THE AFTN. LIGHT N TO NW WIND.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MAY BRING MVFR CEILINGS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES BUILD IN THROUGH THU...NWLY FLOW UP TO 10 TO 15 KT.

SEAS AND WAVES WILL INCREASE BY SATURDAY WITH THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
SCA CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JACKSON
PREVIOUS...GAINES/LN/DRAG WFO MT HOLLY







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 300019
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
819 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING AND OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY BEFORE EXITING THE
AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW APPROACHING THE VA/NC BORDER...HAD SOME
WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT ALONG THE COAST...WITH A MORE MODEST
SHIFT TO NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 KT FARTHER INLAND. FORECAST GENLY
IN GOOD SHAPE...WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT AS MAINLY LIGHT ANA-FRONTAL PRECIP STILL ONGOING OVER
MUCH OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR...WITH SCATTERED HEAVIER SHOWERS OVER
THE VA ERN SHORE AND TO THE SSW IN NC.

BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS...EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AND ALSO IN QPF FOR FAR SE VA AND NE NC AS THE FRONT SLOWLY DROPS
INTO NC.

THE SATELLITE SHOWS THAT THE CLEARING LINE IS QUICKLY EXITING THE
MOUNTAINS AND SHOULD REACH TOWARD THE I-95 CORRIDOR BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE SHOWERS AT THAT TIME.
THIS CLEARING LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE PROGRESS SE TONIGHT AND
BY 10 TO 12Z...THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL HAVE COME TO AN END.
OVERALL...QPF SHOULD BE AROUND 0.25" - 0.50" IN THE SE AND AROUND
0.10" TO 0.20" OR LESS ELSEWHERE.

TEMPERATURES HAVE RAPIDLY DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
OVER MOST AREAS...OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD AVG IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S
NW TO THE LWR 50S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT AND THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE
REGIONS WEATHER. THIS WILL LEAD TO MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT WINDS. WITH THE COOLING ALOFT BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ON THURSDAY WITH GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

THE BIG PART OF THE MID RANGE TIME FRAME IS A STRONG DIGGING
TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE THAT DIGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND CLOSES
OFF OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE DIGGING TROUGH INDUCING
A STRONG SFC LOW TO FORM OFF THE CAROLINA/VA COAST. BUT FOR
DETAILS...THE 12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW UNCERTAINTY AS THE
NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL HAVE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TIMING AND DIFFERENT
LOCATIONS FOR THE SFC LOW TO DEVELOP. RIGHT NOW HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH IS A MIDDLE GROUND BETWEEN THE NAM
TO THE SOUTH AND 00Z ECMWF WHICH WAS TO THE NORTH. THE 12Z ECMWF
CAME IN FURTHER SOUTH...BUT WITH THE LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE
NORTHERN OUTER BANKS IS A FAVORED LOCATION SO LEAN THAT DIRECTION.
AS THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS...SHOULD SEE CLOUDS INCREASE FRIDAY
EVENING WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING LATE IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL SHIFT SE OVERNIGHT AS THE
SFC LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP FOLLOWED BY A WIND SHIFT TO THE NE OVER
THE CWA. THIS NE FLOW WILL HELP TO BRING MORE MOISTURE IN AND HELP
CREATE A WET/COOL DAY ON SATURDAY. AS THE SFC LOW DEVELOPS AND
SLIDES OFF THE COAST...THE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND THE RAIN WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE THE LOW EXITS BY SUN MORNING. THE
WINDS..20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUST TO 40..MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A
WIND ADVISORY ALONG THE COAST FROM NORFOLK THROUGH THE OUTER BANKS
SAT AFTN/EVENING.

FOR TEMPS FRI NIGHT - SAT NIGHT...WITH THE COOL AIR ALOFT COMING
IN...WILL SEE TEMPS IN THE 40S FRI. SATURDAY WITH THE CLOUDY AND
DAMP CONDITIONS WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 50S. GUIDANCE HOWEVER HAS
BEEN SHOWING A WARMING TREND OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS...BUT CURRENT
12Z MEX SHOWING READINGS IN THE 60S LOOKS UNREALISTIC. FOR SAT
NIGHT...HAVE KEPT READINGS IN THE 40S THINKING THAT CLOUDS WILL BE
SLOW TO CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO RELAX.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY...BEFORE
SETTLING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A MUCH COOLER
AIRMASS WILL ACCOMPANY THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. HIGHS SUNDAY
SHOULD ONLY RISE TO 50-55 UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AS CAA CONTINUES.
THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
LOWS FALLING TO AROUND 30-32 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA (UPPER 20S
POSSIBLE IN FAVORED COLD SPOTS)...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES
(35-40) FOR FAR SE PORTIONS. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE THE
FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES THIS FALL ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. A SLOW MODERATING TREND IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM
55-60...WITH LOW/MID 60S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULD REMAIN RATHER COOL TUESDAY MORNING RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID
30S INTERIOR TO LOW 40S FOR SE COASTAL LOCATIONS. LOWS SHOULD
MODERATE INTO THE LOW/MID 40S WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NW DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS
RATHER LOW WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH
THIS FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT PSUHING SOUTH TO NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER CURRENTLY...WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NNE AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KECG (WHERE IT WILL
DO AROUND 01Z). SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AFFECTING TAF
SITES...STILL MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS THROUGH 06Z. HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W ON THU
CREATING VFR CONDITIONS THRU FRI AFTN. UA/SFC LO PRES WILL THEN
AFFECT THE REGION LATE FRI NGT INTO SAT NGT WITH PCPN AND LWR
CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
RAISED SCA`S FOR THE COASTAL WATERS S OF CAPE CHARLES AND FOR THE
LOWER JAMES AND CURRITUCK SOUND. A BRIEF 1-2 HR SURGE OF 20-25 KT
WINDS WITH GUSTS TO ~30 KT...FOLLOWED BY MORE MARGINAL 15-20 KT
WINDS WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY THU AM HRS. SEAS FOR NC COASTAL
WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 5 FT...GENLY 4 FT OR LESS
ELSEWHERE.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY AND THEN DISSIPATES BY
FRIDAY. A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY STRONG CAA LATER
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NW. A NNW WIND IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND A PERIOD OF GALE CONDITIONS IS INCREASINGLY LIKELY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SCA CONDITIONS
LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. IF RAPID CYCLOGENESIS EVENTUALLY
OCCURS OFF THE VA COAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF STORM FORCE GUSTS IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER BAY AND OCEAN DURING THE LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/SATURDAY EVENING TIMEFRAME. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THEN SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-638-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ633-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS
NEAR TERM...ESS/LKB
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...TMG/DAP
MARINE...AJZ/DAP







000
FXUS61 KRNK 292327
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
727 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A SHOT OF COLDER
AIR WILL ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND...ASSOCIATED WITH A FAST MOVING
CLIPPER SYSTEM FROM CANADA THAT WILL RESULT IN THE SPIN UP OF A
STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
AS IT REACHES THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 709 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

UPDATED FORECAST REFLECTS REDUCING POPS IN THE EAST WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAINING FROM FVX-DAN-SIF...ALONG THE BACK EDGE
OF THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR. DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST PER
CHANCE IN THETA-E AND DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
THINK THE SKIES WILL BE CLEARING A LITTLE FASTER AS WELL...SO
LOWERED TEMPS SOME THIS EVENING AS LATEST TRENDS SHOW COOLER
READINGS THAN EARLIER FORECAST. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE EAST
OF THE CWA BY 9 PM.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...MAINLY BELOW 850 MB...RETURNS TO THE UPSLOPE
AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE ADDED MORE CLOUD COVER IN FOR THE FAR
WEST THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR BLF AND LWB
SUGGEST IT MAY TAKE MOST OF THE DAY FOR THESE CLOUDS TO CLEAR.
MODELS AND BUFKIT DATA SHOWED DRY AIR AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS AS
WELL AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO THE -2 TO +2 RANGE BY
THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT NORTHWEST UPSLOPE WINDS TONIGHT BUT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BY MORNING
WINDS WILL DIMINISH. STAYED ON COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST WHERE MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 407 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

OUR FIRST WINTER STORM OF THE SEASON MAY BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPS SOUTH FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT...BECOMING A CLOSED LOW AS IT
CROSSES THE OHIO RIVER NEAR CINCINNATI FRIDAY EVENING. THE LOW
CENTER REACHES CHARLOTTE/COLUMBIA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. A SECONDARY SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ALONG THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

CLOUDS INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND FREEZING IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO THE UPPER 30S IN THE
PIEDMONT. SHOWERS WILL ENTER OUR WESTERN SLOPES FRIDAY MORNING...AND
SPREAD EAST AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPS SOUTH FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION
STARTS AS RAIN.

ALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE COLDEST
AIR WE HAVE SEEN THIS AUTUMN...AND THAT THE SYSTEM WILL PASS RAPIDLY
ACROSS OUR AREA. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY DROP THROUGH THE DAY AS
THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES...WITH THE AIR BECOMING COLD ENOUGH FRIDAY
EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT TO RESULT IN A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW.
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW AND
EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO ALL...SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY
EARLY SATURDAY.  TOO EARLY FOR CONFIDENCE IN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH
WARM GROUND...UNCERTAINTY WITH SNOW RATES AND QUESTIONS IN ACTUAL
TRACK OF THE LOW CENTER. AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE NORTHWEST SNOW
EVENT WITH SNOW ADVISORY LEVEL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES THE MOUNTAINS...THEN ANY SNOW TOTALS WILL DECREASE AS
ONE HEADS EAST. LEANED TOWARDS THE GFS OVER THE NAM SOLUTION
REGARDING SNOW TOTALS.

BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST...CAUSING PRECIPITATION TO FADE FROM EAST TO WEST
OVER OUR AREA AS WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. WIND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE DRASTICALLY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST INCREASES TO 10MB TO
12MB. THESE HEALTHY 6 HOUR PRESSURE RISES SHIFT EASTWARD SATURDAY
NIGHT TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COAST...THEN WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX OVERNIGHT. WE WILL ALSO
HAVE TO CONSIDER WIND HEADLINES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS FADING QUICKLY IN THE NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. MOISTURE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SHALLOW THROUGH
THE NIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN RIDGES... SO ACTUALLY MAY SEE
PRECIPITATION TRANSITION MORE TO LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AS OPPOSED
TO SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 407 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE OVER THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF NEXT WEEK AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY FROM OUR AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVERHEAD
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...SO TEMPERATURES STILL PRETTY CHILLY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST ON
MONDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY... WHICH WILL BEGIN TO CARRY
WARMER AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN. THE HIGH CENTER WILL SLIDE OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ON
MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE COLD
FRONT WITH CONVECTION AHEAD AND ALONG IT WILL TRAVEL THROUGH OUR
REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 714 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

CIGS WILL STAY VFR WITH MID DECK CLEARING THE LYH/DAN AREA BY
MIDNIGHT-2AM EDT. THE 18Z NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH CLOUDS IN
THE WRN SLOPES LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT LEANED TOWARD MORE
OPTIMISTIC CMC/GFS SHOWING SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 2-4KFT FROM
ROA-BCB WEST THURSDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME BKN CIGS AT BLF IN THE
MORNING BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME FOR THIS.

WITH SOME GROUND MOISTURE FROM THE SHOWERS...A POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR MVFR/IFR FOG AROUND 09Z AT BLF/LWB ERODING BY 12Z.

CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM ON CIGS/VSBYS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

MAINLY EXPECTING VFR INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE A STRONG STORM
SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY IFR- LIFR CIGS AND
PRECIPITATION...-SHSN OR -SN BLF/LWB AREA...WITH -RA ELSEWHERE.
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AND
HOW MUCH PRECIP FALLS BUT LOOKS LIKE AVIATION ISSUES WILL ABOUND
FROM THE CAROLINAS UP THE EAST COAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC OVER
THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL ALSO BE STRONG AND GUSTY AS COLDER AIR
FILTERS INTO THE SYSTEM AND AS LOW PRESSURE EVOLVES WITH TIME.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE AC UNITS FOR THE RADAR SHELTER ARE BAD. RADAR OPERATION WILL
BE INTERMITTENT UNTIL SUCH TIME THE AC UNITS ARE FIXED.
IF SHELTER TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS WE WILL PLACE
THE RADAR INTO STANDBY TO AVOID DAMAGE TO THE TRANSMITTER.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...AMS/RCS/WP
EQUIPMENT...PM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 292020
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
420 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS SLOW MARCH ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND IT WILL CLEAR THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
SATURDAY BEFORE EXITING THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM ALONG THE MD COAST NEAR OXB
SW TO NEAR THE TRI CITIES AND CONTINUING TO DAN. THE RAIN ALONG
THE FRONT IS ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT AND WITH THE LIFT BEING
RELATIVELY WEAK...THE SHOWERS ARE LIGHT AND NOT WIDE IN COVERAGE.
BUT WITH THE FRONT NEARING THE COAST...THE MOISTURE AVAILABLE WILL
INCREASE AND THE MODELS SHOW THAT THE COLDER AIR ALOFT IS CATCHING
UP TO THE FRONT WHICH HELP TO INCREASE THE LIFT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR MORE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE
MORE SHOWERS IN COVERAGE AND ALSO IN QPF FOR SE VA AND ALSO ACROSS
NE NC THIS EVENING.

THE SATELLITE SHOWS THAT THE CLEARING LINE IS QUICKLY EXITING THE
MOUNTAINS AND SHOULD REACH TOWARD THE NW PIEDMONT AROUND 00Z. THIS
WILL BRING AN END TO THE SHOWERS AT THAT TIME. THIS CLEARING LINE
WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE PROGRESS SE TONIGHT AND BY 12...THE CHANCE
FOR RAIN WILL HAVE COME TO AN END. OVERALL...QPF SHOULD BE AROUND
0.25" - 0.40" IN THE SE AND AROUND 0.20" OR LESS ELSEWHERE.

FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE MOS NUMBERS AS THE
AREA TRANSITIONS AIRMASSES WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT AND THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE
REGIONS WEATHER. THIS WILL LEAD TO MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT WINDS. WITH THE COOLING ALOFT BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ON THURSDAY WITH GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

THE BIG PART OF THE MID RANGE TIME FRAME IS A STRONG DIGGING
TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE THAT DIGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND CLOSES
OFF OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE DIGGING TROUGH INDUCING
A STRONG SFC LOW TO FORM OFF THE CAROLINA/VA COAST. BUT FOR
DETAILS...THE 12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW UNCERTAINTY AS THE
NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL HAVE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TIMING AND DIFFERENT
LOCATIONS FOR THE SFC LOW TO DEVELOP. RIGHT NOW HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH IS A MIDDLE GROUND BETWEEN THE NAM
TO THE SOUTH AND 00Z ECMWF WHICH WAS TO THE NORTH. THE 12Z ECMWF
CAME IN FURTHER SOUTH...BUT WITH THE LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE
NORTHERN OUTER BANKS IS A FAVORED LOCATION SO LEAN THAT DIRECTION.
AS THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS...SHOULD SEE CLOUDS INCREASE FRIDAY
EVENING WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING LATE IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL SHIFT SE OVERNIGHT AS THE
SFC LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP FOLLOWED BY A WIND SHIFT TO THE NE OVER
THE CWA. THIS NE FLOW WILL HELP TO BRING MORE MOISTURE IN AND HELP
CREATE A WET/COOL DAY ON SATURDAY. AS THE SFC LOW DEVELOPS AND
SLIDES OFF THE COAST...THE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND THE RAIN WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE THE LOW EXITS BY SUN MORNING. THE
WINDS..20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUST TO 40..MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A
WIND ADVISORY ALONG THE COAST FROM NORFOLK THROUGH THE OUTER BANKS
SAT AFTN/EVENING.

FOR TEMPS FRI NIGHT - SAT NIGHT...WITH THE COOL AIR ALOFT COMING
IN...WILL SEE TEMPS IN THE 40S FRI. SATURDAY WITH THE CLOUDY AND
DAMP CONDITIONS WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 50S. GUIDANCE HOWEVER HAS
BEEN SHOWING A WARMING TREND OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS...BUT CURRENT
12Z MEX SHOWING READINGS IN THE 60S LOOKS UNREALISTIC. FOR SAT
NIGHT...HAVE KEPT READINGS IN THE 40S THINKING THAT CLOUDS WILL BE
SLOW TO CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO RELAX.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY...BEFORE
SETTLING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A MUCH COOLER
AIRMASS WILL ACCOMPANY THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. HIGHS SUNDAY
SHOULD ONLY RISE TO 50-55 UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AS CAA CONTINUES.
THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
LOWS FALLING TO AROUND 30-32 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA (UPPER 20S
POSSIBLE IN FAVORED COLD SPOTS)...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES
(35-40) FOR FAR SE PORTIONS. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE THE
FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES THIS FALL ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. A SLOW MODERATING TREND IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM
55-60...WITH LOW/MID 60S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULD REMAIN RATHER COOL TUESDAY MORNING RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID
30S INTERIOR TO LOW 40S FOR SE COASTAL LOCATIONS. LOWS SHOULD
MODERATE INTO THE LOW/MID 40S WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NW DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS
RATHER LOW WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH
THIS FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACRS THE AREA AND OFF THE CST THIS AFTN
INTO THU MORNG. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TAF
SITES...BUT SOME MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AS THE
FRONT MOVES THRU. MAINTAINED JUST VCSH ATTM WITH CHCS FOR RAIN
NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH. HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W ON THU CREATING
VFR CONDITIONS THRU FRI AFTN. UA/SFC LO PRES WILL THEN AFFECT THE
REGION LATE FRI NGT INTO SAT NGT WITH PCPN AND LWR CIGS/VSBYS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MARINE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A WIND SHIFT TO NNW. UPSTREAM OBS SHOW
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20KT...WITH GUSTS OF 20-25KT BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND HIGH-RES MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS SURGE WILL PASS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LOWER BAY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AN SCA HAS BEEN RAISED FOR THE BAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS...BUT OVERALL THE DURATION WILL BE SHORT. LOW-END SCA
CONDITIONS WITH RESPECT TO SEAS ARE POSSIBLE OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER
BANKS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT AT THIS POINT THE
DURATION APPEARS TO BE TOO SHORT TO BUILD SEAS TO 5FT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY AND THEN DISSIPATES BY FRIDAY. A
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY STRONG CAA LATER SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. A NNW WIND
IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND A PERIOD OF
GALE CONDITIONS IS INCREASINGLY LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SCA CONDITIONS LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. IF RAPID CYCLOGENESIS EVENTUALLY OCCURS OFF THE VA COAST A
BRIEF PERIOD OF STORM FORCE GUSTS IS POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER BAY AND
OCEAN DURING THE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/SATURDAY EVENING TIMEFRAME.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THEN
SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS
NEAR TERM...ESS
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...AJZ







000
FXUS61 KRNK 292009
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
409 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A SHOT OF COLDER
AIR WILL ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND...ASSOCIATED WITH A FAST MOVING
CLIPPER SYSTEM FROM CANADA THAT WILL RESULT IN THE SPIN UP OF A
STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
AS IT REACHES THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 409 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE DELMARVA TO CENTRAL ALABAMA. A FEW
WEAK SHORT WAVES WERE PRODUCING SPOTS OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WHICH WAS KEEPING THE SURFACE WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. RADAR SHOWED SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS FROM BUCKINGHAM
COUNTY TO STOKES COUNTY. LOCAL WRF AND SREF HAD BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION EXITING THE COUNTY WARNING AREA BY 03Z/11PM. ALREADY
SEEING BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HAVE ADJUSTED
THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT
TERM MODELS.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...MAINLY BELOW 850 MB...RETURNS TO THE UPSLOPE
AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE ADDED MORE CLOUD COVER IN FOR THE FAR
WEST THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR BLF AND LWB
SUGGEST IT MAY TAKE MOST OF THE DAY FOR THESE CLOUDS TO CLEAR.
MODELS AND BUFKIT DATA SHOWED DRY AIR AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS AS
WELL AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO THE -2 TO +2 RANGE BY
THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT NORTHWEST UPSLOPE WINDS TONIGHT BUT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BY MORNING
WINDS WILL DIMINISH. STAYED ON COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST WHERE MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 407 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

OUR FIRST WINTER STORM OF THE SEASON MAY BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPS SOUTH FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT...BECOMING A CLOSED LOW AS IT
CROSSES THE OHIO RIVER NEAR CINCINNATI FRIDAY EVENING. THE LOW
CENTER REACHES CHARLOTTE/COLUMBIA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. A SECONDARY SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ALONG THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

CLOUDS INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND FREEZING IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO THE UPPER 30S IN THE
PIEDMONT. SHOWERS WILL ENTER OUR WESTERN SLOPES FRIDAY MORNING...AND
SPREAD EAST AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPS SOUTH FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION
STARTS AS RAIN.

ALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE COLDEST
AIR WE HAVE SEEN THIS AUTUMN...AND THAT THE SYSTEM WILL PASS RAPIDLY
ACROSS OUR AREA. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY DROP THROUGH THE DAY AS
THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES...WITH THE AIR BECOMING COLD ENOUGH FRIDAY
EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT TO RESULT IN A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW.
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW AND
EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO ALL...SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY
EARLY SATURDAY.  TOO EARLY FOR CONFIDENCE IN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH
WARM GROUND...UNCERTAINTY WITH SNOW RATES AND QUESTIONS IN ACTUAL
TRACK OF THE LOW CENTER. AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE NORTHWEST SNOW
EVENT WITH SNOW ADVISORY LEVEL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES THE MOUNTAINS...THEN ANY SNOW TOTALS WILL DECREASE AS
ONE HEADS EAST. LEANED TOWARDS THE GFS OVER THE NAM SOLUTION
REGARDING SNOW TOTALS.

BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST...CAUSING PRECIPITATION TO FADE FROM EAST TO WEST
OVER OUR AREA AS WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. WIND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE DRASTICALLY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST INCREASES TO 10MB TO
12MB. THESE HEALTHY 6 HOUR PRESSURE RISES SHIFT EASTWARD SATURDAY
NIGHT TOWARDS THE ALTANIC COAST...THEN WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX OVERNIGHT. WE WILL ALSO HAVE
TO CONSIDER WIND HEADLINES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS FADING QUICKLY IN THE NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. MOISTURE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SHALLOW THROUGH
THE NIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN RIDGES... SO ACTUALLY MAY SEE
PRECIPITATION TRANSITION MORE TO LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AS OPPOSED
TO SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 407 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE OVER THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF NEXT WEEK AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY FROM OUR AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVERHEAD
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...SO TEMPERATURES STILL PRETTY CHILLY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST ON
MONDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY... WHICH WILL BEGIN TO CARRY
WARMER AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN. THE HIGH CENTER WILL SLIDE OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ON
MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE COLD
FRONT WITH CONVECTION AHEAD AND ALONG IT WILL TRAVEL THROUGH OUR
REGION ON WEDNESDAY.




&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TO THE COAST THIS EVENING. LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL NOT SUBSTANTIALLY DECREASE
VISIBILITY AND WILL BE PASSING ACROSS KLYH AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
18Z/2PM TAF FORECAST PERIOD. THE FRONT APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING
BUT MODEL GUIDANCE REDEVELOPS PRECIPITATION ALONG THE LEE TROUGH.
WINDS LESS THAT 10KT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ARE EXPECTED AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

CEILINGS WILL BE RISING THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHILE MAINTAINING VFR
CONDITIONS. TURNING CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
WESTERN SLOPES WHERE CEILINGS MAY DROP TO MVFR. WINDS DECREASING.
THURSDAY MORNING AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL ENTER THE AREA
BRINGING IN CLOUDS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ABOUT HOW FAST CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

A DEEP LOW PRESSURE AREA IS THEN SLATED TO DIVE SOUTHWARD INTO
THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND PROVIDING A LONGER PERIOD OF
POTENTIALLY IFR-LIFR CIGS AND PRECIPITATION...-SHSN OR -SN
BLF/LWB AREA...WITH -RA ELSEWHERE. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THIS NEXT EVENT AT THIS POINT BECAUSE OF POOR MODEL
CONSISTENCY. WINDS WILL ALSO BE STRONG AND GUSTY AS COLDER AIR
FILTERS INTO THE SYSTEM AND AS LOW PRESSURE EVOLVES WITH TIME.
OVERALL...VERY POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI-SUN. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE AC UNITS FOR THE RADAR SHELTER ARE BAD. RADAR OPERATION WILL
BE INTERMITTENT UNTIL SUCH TIME THE AC UNITS ARE FIXED.
IF SHELTER TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS WE WILL PLACE
THE RADAR INTO STANDBY TO AVOID DAMAGE TO THE TRANSMITTER.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...AMS/RCS/NONE
EQUIPMENT...PM




000
FXUS61 KLWX 291954
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
354 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND OFFSHORE BY
THIS EVENING. ON THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. A
COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
AND ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING IN THE CAROLINAS WILL
INTERACT THIS WEEKEND OFFSHORE EAST OF THE REGION. ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK,
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CDFNT AND PRECIP SHIELD WORKING THEIR WAY ACRS THE REGION.  PRECIP
ACRS WRN SECTIONS HAS ALREADY ENDED AND BACK EDGE IS EVIDENT ON
RADAR.  PRECIP SHUD END ACRS DC/BALTIMORE METRO OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND EVERYWHERE LATER IN THE EVE.  THEN HIGH RES WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD IN.

GUID TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE AND WERE GENLY ACCEPTED.  BUMPED PREV
FCST UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES AS LATEST GUID WAS A BIT WARMER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A DRY DAY IS IN STORE FOR THU WITH HIGH PRES IN FIRM CONTROL.
EXPECT TEMPS TO BE A BIT COOLER ON NWLY FLOW.  AS THE HIGH BUILDS
IN, IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH JUST SOME SCT CU.  TEMPS WILL BE
BELOW NRML.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. DRY. NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF
STORM SYSTEMS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND CAROLINAS. FAIRLY LOW
SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THIS PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: THE TRACK AND INTENSITY ALONG IF
ANY INTERACTION BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS APPROACHING THE REGION
HAS BEEN A STRUGGLE TO SAY THE LEAST FOR THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND
THE RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. HOWEVER THERE HAS
BEEN MORE CONSISTANCY OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINA COAST MOVES OUT TO SEA
GOING EAST OF CAPE COD. THEN THE LOW ACROSS OHIO VALLEY MOVES EAST
ALONG A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED TO NO INTERACTION BETWEEN THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS DIVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. THIS WOULD
BRING IN SOME RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY PERHAPS
MIXED WITH WET SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. WITH STEADIER PRECIPITATION
DYNAMICAL COOLING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD CHANGE RAIN OVER TO
SNOW AS WELL, STILL WAY TO EARLY TO HONE IN ON ANY POTENTIAL
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD THIS OPTION OCCUR. HOWEVER WE DID PUT IN SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF VA/WV AND MD.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH VERY WINDY NOW AND WE COULD EASILY
SEE SOME GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS.
TEMPERATURES WERE KEPT DOWN OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE STEADIEST
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. AREAS FROM DC TO BWI WILL LIKELY
SEE MORE INTERMITTENT SHOWERS AND MORE OF A EAST FLOW OFF THE WATER
ALLOWING HIGH TO GET TO CLOSE TO 50 ON SATURDAY. MET, MAV GUIDANCE
SETS ALONG WITH THE ECMWF WERE INCORPORATED IN THESE PERIODS. WINDS
WILL SWITCH TO NORTHWESTERLY BY SUNDAY WITH STRONG CAA. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT WE MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
PRESENTED BY THE MET AND MAV AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE ON SUNDAY.


MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION SO
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT GIVE WAY TO WAA FROM
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
GRADUAL WARMUP IN THIS PERIOD. A COLD FRONT IS THEN LIKELY TO PUSH
INTO THE REGION BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY HAVE INCLUDED A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT. WENT WARMER ON TUESDAY GIVEN THE
WAA AND 925 MB TEMPS APPROACHING 9C, GETTING THE REGION INTO THE
60`S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

NWS MOUNT HOLLY IS BACKING UP THIS OFFICE AND THEIR
TAFS THROUGH 20Z TODAY.

REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...PREDOMINANT VFR CIGS CLEARING FROM
WSW TO ENE. SHOWERS AND BRIEF MVFR CONDS ENDING SHORTLY PER THE
TAFS.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH A LIGHT NW WIND.

THURSDAY...VFR WITH DIURNAL SC IN THE AFTN. LIGHT N TO NW WIND.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MAY BRING MVFR CEILINGS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
CDFNT AND RAIN APPROACHING FROM THE W.  GOOD CAA BEHIND THE FRONT,
BUT CURRENT THINKING IS WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH THIS SURGE SO WILL
OPT FOR AN MWS. HIGH PRES BUILD IN LATER TONIGHT INTO THU SO NO
ADDITIONAL MARINE HEADLINES WILL BE ANTICIPATED.

SEAS AND WAVES WILL INCREASE BY SATURDAY WITH THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
SCA CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE COASTAL LOW ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
WFO STERLING WILL BE RESUMING NORMAL FORECASTING OPERATIONS LATER
TODAY. 44065 BUOY HAS RETURNED TO SVC. 44009 WIND OTS AND NO SERVICE DATE
FOR REPAIR AS YET.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES/ WFO MOUNT HOLLY
NEAR TERM...LN/ WFO MOUNT HOLLY
SHORT TERM...LN/ WFO MOUNT HOLLY
LONG TERM...GAINES/ WFO MOUNT HOLLY
AVIATION... DRAG/ WFO MOUINT HOLLY
MARINE...LN/WFO MOUNT HOLLY AND HTS/ADS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...GAINES/ WFO MOUNT HOLLY
EQUIPMENT...DRAG/GAINES WFO MOUNT HOLLY








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 291808
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
208 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WEST THIS MORNING...THEN CROSSES
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION SATURDAY...AS A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SFC COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY ENTERING WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THIS MORNING WITH LOTS OF HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...THE CLOUDS ARE
THICKENING...BUT THE RADAR SHOWS THE SHOWER ACTIVITY COMING OUT OF
THE MOUNTAINS IS WEAKENING. BUT THE MODELS SHOW THAT THE LIFT WILL
REORGANIZE AS THE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD SO HAVE INCREASED POPS TO
LIKELY LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH THAT DOES NOT MEAN HEAVY
RAIN AS QPF WILL GENERALLY BE ONLY .10" -.20" WEST OF I-95 UP TO
0.50" TO THE EAST. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED THE TIMING A LITTLE AS THE
PCPN LOOKS TO BE MOVING SLOWER THAN THE MODELS...WHICH MAKES SENSE
WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAT IS SLIDING NE OUT OF THE GULF COAST STATES
WHICH SHOULD RETARD THE EASTERN PUSH OF THE FRONT FOR A BIT UNTIL
THIS WAVE PASSES BETWEEN 00Z AND 6Z.

FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SE TO
LOWER VALUES TO AROUND 80 BASED ON THE THICKER CIRRUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CDFNT IS SLO TO PUSH TO THE ESE THROUGH THIS EVE. XPCG DECENT
COVERAGE OF PCPN (50-60% POPS) OVR ESE VA/NE NC THIS EVE (UNTIL
ABT 04-06Z/30)...ALONG W/ CONTD HI PERCENTAGE OF CLDNS. CLDNS TO
DCRS AND LO CAA TNGT IN WAKE OF FNT AS IT PUSHES OFF THE CST. LO
TEMPS RANGE FM THE L/M40S NW TO THE L/M50S OVR SE CSTL AREAS.

WEAK H5 RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW THU AND THU
NIGHT. DRY AND COOLER. HI TEMPS THU IN THE L/M60S. LO TEMPS THU
NGT FM THE M/U30S NW TO ARND 50F OVR SE CSTL AREAS.

RGN TO BE INBETWEEN FNTL BNDRY (WELL) OFF THE CST AND STRONG UPR
LVL SYS DIVING SE FM THE LAKES/OH VLY ON FRI. STARTING OUT MNLY
SKC THEN XCPG VRB CLDS TO PSNY BY THE AFTN. HI TEMPS FM THE U50S
NW TO M60S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALL MDLS NOW COMING INTO LINE WRT TO STRONG UPR LVL LO PRES DIVING
(WELL) S THROUGH THE MDATLC STATES FM (LT) FRI NGT THROUGH SAT. AT
THE SAME TIME...SFC LO PRES BECOMING MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP E OF
THE FA (ALG LINGERING FNTL BNDRY). WILL SPREAD INCRSG CLDNS OVR
THE FA FRI NGT W/ POPS MNLY AOB 20%. BY SAT...CAA AND STRONG UVM
TO CROSS THE FA RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD CLDNS AND (BY AFTN)...POPS
INCRSG TO 40-60% E...TO 20-30 W. ALSO...NNE WNDS PTNTLLY INCRS TO
20-30 MPH...AGN MNLY ERN PORTION.

IN WAKE OF LO PRES EXITING THE CST AND ON TO THE ENE SAT NGT INTO
SUN...GUSTY NNW WNDS USHER IN COLDEST AIRMASS OF FALL SO FAR. LO
TEMPS (TO NR FREEZING?) OVR PORTIONS OF FA (ESP WRN 1/3RD) WILL BE
DEPENDENT OF LINGERING WNDS AND/OR CLDNS. MEANWHILE...CLDS/PCPN
XPCD TO BE SLO IN EXITING ERN PORTIONS (SAT NGT).

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION DURING SUNDAY...BEFORE
SETTLING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGHS
SUNDAY SHOULD ONLY RISE TO 50-55F UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AS CAA
CONTINUES. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOWS FALLING TO AROUND/BLO 32F FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
AWAY FM THE BAY/CST...WITH AGAIN SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES (35-40F)
CLOSER TO THE CST. A SLOW MODERATING TREND IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD
RANGE FROM 55-60...WITH 60-65 BY TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD
REMAIN CHILLY AND RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACRS THE AREA AND OFF THE CST THIS AFTN
INTO THU MORNG. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TAF
SITES...BUT SOME MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AS THE
FRONT MOVES THRU. MAINTAINED JUST VCSH ATTM WITH CHCS FOR RAIN
NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH. HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W ON THU CREATING
VFR CONDITIONS THRU FRI AFTN. UA/SFC LO PRES WILL THEN AFFECT THE
REGION LATE FRI NGT INTO SAT NGT WITH PCPN AND LWR CIGS/VSBYS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY FLOW AVGG 10-15 KT CONTINUES THIS MORNG WITH HI PRES OFFSHORE
AND A COLD FRNT APPROACHING FM THE W. THE FRNT WILL CROSS THE WTRS
THIS AFTN AND EVENG. A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINDS CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA
IS EXPECTED POST FRNTAL...BUT WINDS SHOULD MAINLY STAY ~15 KT WITH
WEAK CAA. EXPECT 2-3 FT WAVES OVR THE BAY AND 3-4 FT SEAS OVR CSTL
WTRS. BROAD SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W ON THU...DISSIPATING OVR
THE MID ATLANTIC ON FRI. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH
N WINDS GENERALLY 10-15 KT AND 2-4 FT SEAS.

A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY STRONG CAA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS
CANADIAN SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. SCA CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR A PERIOD OF LOW-END GALE
CONDITIONS LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THEN
SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ESS
SHORT TERM...ALB/MPR
LONG TERM...AJZ/ALB
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MAS







000
FXUS61 KRNK 291746
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
146 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY WITH A
PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN...RAIN AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THIS COLD FRONT. A SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE THIS
WEEKEND...ASSOCIATED WITH A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM FROM CANADA
THAT WILL RESULT IN THE SPIN UP OF A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS IT REACHES THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. A 50 TO 75 MILE
WIDE BAND OF LIGHT RAIN AND RAIN SHOWERS EXTENDED ALONG THE LENGTH
OF THE FRONT. LEADING EDGE OF SHOWERS AT 10AM WAS FROM JUST WEST
OF HOT SPRINGS TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF WATAUGA COUNTY. HAVE
ADJUSTED TIMING OF PRECIPITATION BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

THINK AMOUNTS FOR OUR CWA WILL BE RANGING FROM A QUARTER OF AN
INCH IN THE WEST TO A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE EAST. AREAL COVERAGE
HAS BEEN SOLID ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE
WEST...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE IN THE EAST...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE
STILL GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT THAT FOLKS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
WILL RECEIVE AT LEAST AN HOUR OR TWO OF WETTING SHOWERS.

FRONT IS PROGGED BY ALL MODELS TO CLEAR THE CWA BY THIS EVENING.
SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING IN OUR WESTERN CWA MID/LATE
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING IN THE EAST THIS EVENING OR
EARLY TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS LATE TONIGHT
COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG.

HAVE LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST WHERE THERE WAS MORE
LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT IS
SEASONAL...SO TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK CLOSER TO WHERE WE
SHOULD BE FOR LATE OCTOBER WITH LOWS 35 TO 45.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER PATTERN ON THURSDAY...
RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES UNDER LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. EXPECT
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS SUBTLE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING TAKES SHAPE ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN...WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S FOR THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE LOW 60S
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING LATE EVENING AS OUR
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES...WITH WINDS SHIFTING
SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...WITH A FEW AREAS OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

SHOWERS WILL ENTER OUR WESTERN SLOPES AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY...AND
SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE MORNING AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPS
SOUTH FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...BECOMING A CLOSED LOW AS IT
CROSSES THE OHIO RIVER NEAR CINCINNATI FRIDAY EVENING. FROM THERE...
WEATHER FORECAST MODELS DIFFER ON THE TRACK THE LOW TAKES...WITH THE
NAM MODEL FARTHEST WEST OF OUR AREA AND WARMEST...WHILE THE ECMWF
TAKES THE LOW DIRECTLY ACROSS OUR PORTION OF THE APPALACHIANS...AND
IS COLDEST/DEEPEST. THE GFS FORECAST MODEL SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE OTHER TWO...AND SINCE THE MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO GET
A HANDLE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...HELD CLOSEST TO THE GFS
SOLUTION.

ALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE COLDEST
AIR WE HAVE SEEN THIS AUTUMN...AND THAT THE SYSTEM WILL PASS RAPIDLY
ACROSS OUR AREA. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY DROP THROUGH THE DAY AS
THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES...WITH THE AIR BECOMING COLD ENOUGH BY
AROUND SUNSET FOR A FEW SNOW FLAKES TO MIX IN FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE
3000 FEET. FROM THERE...TEMPERATURES WILL NOSE-DIVE FRIDAY
NIGHT... CAUSING RAIN TO BECOME MIXED WITH...AND EVENTUALLY CHANGE
OVER TO... SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY.
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS AND THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE...CLOSEST TO THE UPPER
LOW...WHERE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. ACCUMULATIONS WILL
TAPER DOWN TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH FOR THE REST OF THE
MOUNTAINS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON
SATURDAY...WITH SNOW BECOMING MIXED WITH OR CHANGING BACK TO
RAIN...DEPENDING ON ELEVATION. AS SUCH...NEW SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. BY EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...THE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...
CAUSING PRECIPITATION TO FADE FROM EAST TO WEST OVER OUR AREA AS
WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE DRASTICALLY AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST INCREASES TO 10MB TO 12MB. WIND SPEEDS
WILL DECREASE AGAIN DURING THE EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEGINS TO RELAX.

SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS FADING QUICKLY IN THE NORTHWESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. MOISTURE WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY SHALLOW THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN RIDGES...
SO ACTUALLY MAY SEE PRECIPITATION TRANSITION MORE TO LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE AS OPPOSED TO SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE OVER THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF NEXT WEEK
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY FROM OUR AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PASS OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY NIGHT...SO TEMPERATURES STILL PRETTY
CHILLY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE
CAROLINA COAST ON MONDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY... WHICH
WILL BEGIN TO CARRY WARMER AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD
ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TO THE COAST THIS EVENING. LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL NOT SUBSTANTIALLY DECREASE
VISIBILITY AND WILL BE PASSING ACROSS KLYH AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
18Z/2PM TAF FORECAST PERIOD. THE FRONT APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING
BUT MODEL GUIDANCE REDEVELOPS PRECIPITATION ALONG THE LEE TROUGH.
WINDS LESS THAT 10KT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ARE EXPECTED AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

CEILINGS WILL BE RISING THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHILE MAINTAINING VFR
CONDITIONS. TURNING CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
WESTERN SLOPES WHERE CEILINGS MAY DROP TO MVFR. WINDS DECREASING.
THURSDAY MORNING AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL ENTER THE AREA
BRINGING IN CLOUDS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ABOUT HOW FAST CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

A DEEP LOW PRESSURE AREA IS THEN SLATED TO DIVE SOUTHWARD INTO
THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND PROVIDING A LONGER PERIOD OF
POTENTIALLY IFR-LIFR CIGS AND PRECIPITATION...-SHSN OR -SN
BLF/LWB AREA...WITH -RA ELSEWHERE. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THIS NEXT EVENT AT THIS POINT BECAUSE OF POOR MODEL
CONSISTENCY. WINDS WILL ALSO BE STRONG AND GUSTY AS COLDER AIR
FILTERS INTO THE SYSTEM AND AS LOW PRESSURE EVOLVES WITH TIME.
OVERALL...VERY POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI-SUN. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE AC UNITS FOR THE RADAR SHELTER ARE BAD. RADAR OPERATION WILL
BE INTERMITTENT UNTIL SUCH TIME THE AC UNITS ARE FIXED.
IF SHELTER TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS WE WILL PLACE
THE RADAR INTO STANDBY TO AVOID DAMAGE TO THE TRANSMITTER.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...AMS/PM
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...AMS/RCS/NONE
EQUIPMENT...PM




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