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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 260809
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
409 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE REBUILDING OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. THE HIGH GRADUALLY SLIDES OFF THE COAST MONDAY...AND
BECOMES CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN
QUEBEC/NORTHERN MAINE, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT DRAPED
FROM THE NORTHEAST BACK INTO THE LOWER OH VLY CROSSING THE MTNS
EARLY THIS MORNING. LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO NW
EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, AS
THE TRAILING SFC FRONT SETTLES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS BY THIS AFTN.
WELL MIXED AIRMASS AND A COMPRESSED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAKE
FOR A BREEZY DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH WINDS AVERAGING 15-25 MPH
ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE/COASTAL AREAS...W/LIGHTER WINDS 10-15 MPH
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 MPH WEST OF THE BAY. DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO DROP INTO
THE 30S THIS AFTERNOON (SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW).
OTHERWISE, A VERY PLEASANT, MILD FALL DAY EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY, BEFORE IT
SHIFTS OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. CLEAR SKY, LIGHT WINDS
AND A DRY AIRMASS SHOULD MAKE FOR ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT THIS
EVENING...WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS MONDAY IN THE U30S TO NEAR 40
INLAND...LOW TO MID 40S ALONG THE COAST TO NEAR 50 AT THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. CONTINUED DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. H85 TEMPS IN THE 13-15C RANGE YIELD HIGHS U60S-L70S
MON.

RETURN FLOW SETS UP MONDAY NIGHT AND TUES RESULTING IN A WARMING
TREND. TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD FOR
MOST OF THE LOCAL AREA, AS H85 TEMPS WILL CLIMB TO NEAR 15-17C.
BREEZY WAA (SOUTHWEST FLOW) MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, IN TANDEM
WITH A MAINLY SUNNY SKY, SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S
INLAND...MID TO UPPER 70S EASTERN SHORE AND ALONG THE COAST.
CONTINUED RELATIVELY MILD TUESDAY NIGHT GIVEN INCREASING CLOUD
COVER WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
PREFRONTAL WAA WILL ALSO ASSIST IN KEEPING TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO
FAR. EARLY MORNING LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

CONTINUED TO LAG TOWARD THE SLOW SIDE WITH ONSET OF POPS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY. AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW, DEEPENING LOW
AND BEST DYNAMICS ORIENTED WELL OFF TO OUR NORTH- NORTHEAST ALL
POINT IN THAT DIRECTION...AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF
WITH RAIN CHCS WED MORNING. HAVE CONTINUED WITH A LOW CHC 30-40%
POP ON WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. GIVEN ANTECEDENT DRY AIRMASS AND
MOISTURE STARVED FRONT...QPF WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW WITH THE
MIDWEEK FRONTAL PASSAGE, ON THE ORDER OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY INTO THE U60S-L70S IN THE PIEDMONT, WITH A LATER
FRONTAL PASSAGE BRINGING MILDER TEMPERATURES (75-800 ALONG THE SE
COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FORECAST ESPECIALLY TOWARD NEXT
WEEKEND. INITIAL FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES OF TIMING ON THE FRONT. HAVE CHANCE POPS OF SHOWERS WITH
THIS FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH. THEN BEGINNING FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
THE MODELS DIVERGE. HAVE THE ECMWF DEVELOPING A DEEP CUTOFF LOW OVER
THE SOUTHEAST US WHILE THE GFS HAS THE CUTOFF DEVELOPING MORE TOWARD
NEW ENGLAND WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. THE ECMWF IS TOWARD THE
DEEPEST ENSEMBLE SOLUTION. HOWEVER THE OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN IS
SUCH THAT IT COULD SUPPORT THE CUTOFF OVER SOUTHEASTERN US. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH HOW FUTURE MODEL RUNS DEVELOP. EITHER WAY STARTING
ON THURSDAY COLDER AIR BEGINS TO ARRIVE AND WE HAVE THE COLDEST
AIR THIS FALL ACROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY. THIS DROPS HIGHS INTO
THE 50S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN WESTERN
SECTIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH WEST WINDS
VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST AND BECOMING BREEZY BY MID MORNING. GUSTS
WILL AVERAGE 15-20KT INLAND WITH HIGHER GUSTS OF 25-30KT ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND MD/VA LOWER EASTERN SHORE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF THE
COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
DRY/VFR WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTH AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 15KT DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO DEVELOP WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS
WEDNESDAY PROGRESSES. PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED TO BE VERY LIGHT
AND SHOWERY AS THE FRONT GETS PULLED APART BY THE TIME IT TRAVERSES
THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO ONGOING FORECAST. SCA FLAGS FOR CHES BAY
AND COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO THE VA/NC BORDER ARE NOW
IN EFFECT. A WEAK TROUGH IS CURRENTLY PRESENT OVER THE WATERS WITH
WEST WINDS AVERAGING 10-15KT. THE DRY COLD FRONT IS POISED TO CROSS
THE WATERS SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK...THEN WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NW
AND BECOME BREEZY WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15KT RIVERS/SOUND...15-20KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25KT CHES BAY...15-25KT WITH GUSTS TO 30KT COASTAL WATERS
FENWICK ISLAND TO VA/NC BORDER. SEAS ARE 2-4FT BUT WILL BUILD TO
3-5FT ONCE THE STRONGER NW WINDS DEVELOP. WAVES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
BUILD TO 3-4FT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR NRN COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO
PARRAMORE ISLAND WHERE SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO DROP BELOW 5FT UNTIL
THIS EVENING. BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...NW WINDS WILL BE AOB 15KT AND
DIMINISHING INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS.
THE HIGH SLIDES EWD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY. A NOCTURNAL
SUB-SCA SURGE IN WINDS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EACH NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY AND SW WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY NORTHERLY WINDS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS JUST NORTH OF THE DELMARVA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTR COORD WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES / STATE AGENCIES...WILL NOT ISSUE
ANY FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS MORNING.
HAVE CONTINUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE GUSTY WINDS & RH`S 25 TO 30%
ACROSS THE ERN SHORE IN THE FWF. RH`S OVER THE PIEDMONT WILL DROP
TO 20-25% LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT WINDS TO
DIMINISH INLAND THIS AFTN.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ632-634-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ630-
     631.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD
FIRE WEATHER...











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000
FXUS61 KLWX 260754
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
354 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING
OFF THE COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE MAY RETURN FOR THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN ATYPICAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ATMOSPHERE OVER THE AREA
ATTM. AS OF 3AM...IAD IS 61F AND LOCATIONS SOME 2-3 COUNTIES TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST ARE 10-15F COOLER. SAME STORY BACK EVEN FURTHER
TO THE NORTH AND WEST - THE OPPOSITE OF WHAT IS TYPICAL NOT ONLY
IN A LATITUDE SENSE BUT ALSO CONSIDERING A COLD FRONT SHOULD HAVE
THE COLD AIR BEHIND IT - NOT OUT AHEAD OF IT. BUT MORE IS GOING ON
THAN JUST A WARM-SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND CAA BEHIND. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED IN A CORRIDOR IN THE LEE OF THE BLUE RIDGE
HAS HELPED CREATE A STABLE LAYER FOR THE INCOMING WINDS FROM THE
WEST. DEWPOINTS W OF THE RIDGE HAVING NO TROUBLE DROPPING WELL
INTO THE 30S BUT TEMPS HAVE ALSO INCREASED BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
INTO THE L60S. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OVER THE NRN VA
PIEDMONT...TEMPS HAVE SETTLED DOWN IN THE 40S.

ANOTHER COUPLE OF HRS THOUGH AND TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO DROP BACK DOWN
INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...FOR THOSE THAT ARE IN THE
60S AS WELL. A FEW WAVE-TYPE CLOUDS THAT ARE MAKING THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE REGIONAL SKIES ATTM WILL DISSIPATE AND PROPAGATE WELL E OF THE
AREA BY THE POST-DAWN HRS. CLEAR SKIES THRU THE DAYTIME HRS TODAY W/
A REBOUND IN TEMPS BACK TOWARD YDA`S LEVELS BUT W/ DRY AND GUSTY
WINDS. BLENDED THE VARIOUS WRF DERIVATIVES FOR HOURLY WINDS FOR
TODAY...SHOWING THE AREAL WAVE-LIKE PATTERN TO THE GUSTS OVER THE
MTNS/FOOTHILLS.

RELATIVELY HIGHER TEMPS...LOW HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS
ALONG W/ FUEL MOISTURES THAT HAVE BEEN DROPPING OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS WILL CREATE AN ENHANCE FIRE THREAT...SEE THE FIRE WX SECTION
BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

WITH SFC DEWPOINTS FIRMLY HOLDING IN THE 30S OVERNIGHT...TEMPS WILL
MAKE A SIMILAR DROP TONIGHT. MANY AREAS WILL DROP WELL INTO THE 40S
AND MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT/SHELTERED VLYS WILL REACH THE M-U30S FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT DO REACH
THESE LOWER TEMP VALUES AND CAN HAVE WINDS DECOUPLE AFTER A BREEZY
DAY. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE WINDS DROP OFF SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...BUT A FEW RESIDUAL GUSTS EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY MRNG HRS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MONDAY WILL BE MUCH LIKE SATURDAY - A PLEASANT TRANSITION DAY W/
HIGH PRESSURE REBOUNDING FROM THE DEEP SOUTH AFTER GETTING PUSHED
OUT OF THE AREA TODAY. A CHANGE IN THE WIND FIELD WILL TURN OUR SFC
WINDS TO SLY...BRINGING BACK SOME WARMTH AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. THE HIGHLANDS WILL BENEFIT THE MOST FROM THIS REGIME...W/
TEMPS CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 70S - SOME LOCALES NEAR 80F IN THE
SHELTERED APLCN VLYS. A BIT MORE OF A COMPLEX SOLUTION FOR THE
PIEDMONT/COASTAL AREAS...W/ TEMPS ALSO CLIMBING INTO THE SEASONAL
AVG`S BUT THE COOLER AIR WILL RESIDE OVER EXTREME NERN MD.
BIAS-CORRECTED MAV/MEX SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS - W/
SOME EURO CONTRIBUTIONS AS WELL. CLOUD-FREE AND DRY FOR THE
MONDAY...W/ SOME CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM THE NW LATER IN THE DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL INCREASE BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
MILDER CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT COMPARED TO SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
TUESDAY WILL TURN OUT QUITE WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS. MAX TEMPS TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID AND UPPER 70S NEAR WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE...TO THE LOWER 80S
IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT SINCE LITTLE
MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...BRINGING A RETURN OF DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF
THIS SYSTEM REMAIN HIGH. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DURING
THIS TIME...AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG THE RIDGE TOPS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDS THRU THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD...BUT A CHALLENGING SITUATION
CREATED BY AN INCOMING COLD FRONT. WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO NEAR-FULLY FIX DOWN...CREATING THE
20-30KT GUSTS THAT HAVE BEEN APPEARING IN MANY POTOMAC HIGHLAND OBS
IN RECENT HRS. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...A MORE STABLE ATMOS HAS CUT
DOWN SUBSTANTIALLY ON THESE GUSTS BUT MORE RECENTLY THIS LAYER HAS
SHOWN SIGNS OF MIXING-OUT. THRU 12Z...LOCALES ACROSS THE I-95
CORRIDOR AND NEARBY TAF SITES SHOULD PREPARE FOR BRIEF GUSTS IN THE
20-30KT RANGE W/ INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF LIGHTER WINDS.

POST-SUNRISE...THE MORE STEADY AND WIDESPREAD GUSTS IN THE 20-30KT
RANGE WILL BEGIN AND CONTINUE WELL INTO THE AFTN HRS. BY LATE THIS
AFTN/EVE...THE TOP-END GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE BACK TOWARD 15-20KT THEN
DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA
ON MONDAY...ALLOWING SFC WINDS TO SWITCH TO SLY THRU THE DAYTIME HRS
AND CLEAR SKIES FOR ALL SITES TODAY INTO MONDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. CIGS/VSBYS MAY APPROACH MVFR LEVELS DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD SOLID
SCA GUSTS ACROSS THE WATERS IN THE COMING HRS AND CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A FEW NEAR-GALE GUSTS IN THE U20KT RANGE WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT ISOLATED LOCALES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD BUT THE
OVERWHELMING RANGE WILL BE A GENERAL 20-25KT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA AGAIN STARTING LATER THIS AFTN...SLOWLY DROPPING
WINDS BACK DOWN INTO THE 5-10KT AND SWITCH THE FLOW TO SLY HEADING
INTO MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY. HAVE CAPPED
GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS FOR NOW DUE TO THE RELATIVE WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT. HOWEVER...A PRESSURE SURGE MAY CAUSE WIND GUSTS TO
EXCEED SCA CRITERIA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOR PORTIONS OF
THE WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT TODAY. THE GUSTY
WINDS ALONG WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND LOW FUEL MOISTURE WILL
ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRES LATE THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR
THE ENHANCED THREAT ACROSS THE CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY INTO THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS OF VIRGINIA. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE
LOWEST ACROSS THESE AREAS. ELSEWHERE...THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY MAY
BE A BIT HIGHER BUT WINDS WILL BE GUSTY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530>534-537-
     539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
     536-538-542.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...GMS
SHORT TERM...BJL/GMS
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/GMS
MARINE...BJL/GMS
FIRE WEATHER...BJL/GMS







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000
FXUS61 KRNK 260750
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
350 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING BRINGING GUSTY
WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PASS ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM EDT SUNDAY...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM NE PA/SE NY SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING.
AIRMASS WILL DRY OUT FAST...SO NOT REALLY SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING...THOUGH ENOUGH CONVERGENCE IN THE NC
MTNS FOR ISOLATED THREAT TIL 7 AM.

SKIES WILL BE CLEARING IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY. STRONG NW FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MIXING OF THE
WINDS...SO EXPECT WNW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20-30 MPH.

NOT SEEING ANY COLD AIR ADVECTION SO HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE MILD WITH
READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S MOUNTAINS...TO LOWER TO MID 70S
PIEDMONT.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. SKIES REMAIN CLEAR
WITH WINDS SUBSIDING. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS...TO MID TO UPPER 40S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER OUR AREA TO START THE DAY ON
MONDAY...MAKING FOR RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE HIGH
WILL SHIFT RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST...PASSING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON TO BRING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDFLOW TO THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP THE
WARM SPELL IN TACT...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 70S MOST
LOCATIONS...UPPER 60S AT HIGHER ELEVATION. MONDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL
HOLD IN THE 50S FOR THE MOST PART.

EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AS GULF AIR
POOLS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WILL START THE DAY OFF
WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...WITH CLOUDS INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. EXPECT MID/UPPER 70S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND LOW 80S
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL ENTER
THE MOUNTAINS BY AROUND MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT NEARS
THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN...WITH SHOWERS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
WIDESPREAD AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT WILL BE MAKING STEADY PROGRESS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE FALLS OFF
QUICKLY WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND WITH ONLY MODEST ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY...BELIEVE MOST LOCATIONS CAN EXPECT A WINDOW OF ONLY A
COUPLE HOURS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY...WITH ONE OR TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH
RAINFALL ACCUMULATION. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN QUICKLY
BEHIND THE FRONT...BRINGING CLEARING CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY
EVENING...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT SATURDAY...

MORE WAVES OF ENERGY WILL ROTATE AROUND A UPPER COLD POOL ACROSS THE
LAKES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
VERY DEEP 5H TROUGH PER A FORECAST CLOSED UPPER SYSTEM HEADING INTO
NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY WITH THE MAIN PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY.
STILL SOME EARLIER MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE EC WANTING TO CLOSE
THIS OFF OVER THE REGION WHILE CONSENSUS FAVORS A MORE PROGRESSIVE/
NORTHWARD SCENARIO. THIS SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE CWA BETWEEN SYSTEMS
THURSDAY THRU FRIDAY WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE/ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TO
THE SE AND SHALLOW COLD POOL PRECIP TO THE NW. HOWEVER DEEPENING NW
FLOW AND PASSAGE OF THE FINAL TROUGH AXIS...LIKELY TO SWING UPSLOPE
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS INTO GEAR SATURDAY...WHEN WELL BELOW 0C 85H AIR
WILL ADVECT IN ON STRONG NW FLOW PERHAPS MAKING FOR THE COOLEST DAY
SEEN SO FAR THIS FALL.

THIS ALONG WITH STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST WILL CAUSE A DAILY TAPERING OF TEMPS WITH HIGHS MOSTLY 50S TO
AROUND 60 BY FRIDAY...AND PERHAPS ONLY 40S WEST TO 50S EAST
SATURDAY. EXPECT LOWS TO DIP BELOW FREEZING MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND POSSIBLY ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 125 AM EDT SUNDAY...

LOW LVL INVERSION IN PLACE AT MOST SITES WITH THE STRONGER FLOW
ALOFT ALLOWING FOR SOME LOW LVL WIND SHEAR CONCERNS EARLY THIS TAF
PERIOD BUT WILL GO AWAY AROUND 09Z. DEALING WITH SOME MVFR TO HIGH
END IFR IN SE WV THIS MORNING MAINLY AT BLF...WITH VFR ELSEWHERE.

THE STRATOCU WILL CLEAR OUT BY DAWN AND MIXING WILL COMMENCE AT
ALL TAF SITES IN THE 14-16Z TIME FRAME. WNW WINDS OF 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20-30KTS EXPECTED UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. SHOULD BE
VFR THROUGH THE DAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE AFTER 22Z.

CONFIDENCE HIGH IN ALL TAF PARAMETERS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. LOWER RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSING OF THE
NEXT FRONT AND AN UPPER TROUGH SETTLING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.
VFR TO RETURN TO ALL SITES THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...

WNW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 MPH THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
WHILE THE HUMIDITY TUMBLES INTO THE 20S THIS AFTERNOON.
SIGNIFICANT DRYING HAS TAKEN PLACE OVER THE PAST WEEK WHERE 10
HOUR FUELS HAVE DROPPED TO 7-8 PERCENT. DUE TO THIS FACT...AN
ENHANCED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR THE PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT TODAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...JH/NF
AVIATION...RAB/RCS/WP
FIRE WEATHER...RCS/WP




000
FXUS61 KLWX 260635 AAB
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
235 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MONDAY. THE HIGH
WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...PLACED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INTO EFFECT FOR ALL THE
WATERS AS A DRY BUT GUSTY COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE BLUE RIDGE
AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE BAY. THE GUSTIER CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN
FIGHTING AGAINST MORE OF A STABLE LAYER BUT AT LEAST A PORTION OF
THE MIXED LAYER EXPECTED TO REACH THE SFC IN THE COMING HRS.

PREV DISC...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE. RAISED
MIN TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES IN THE METRO AREAS AND REMOVED POPS
ALONG THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.

DRY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AM. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 40S CAN BE
EXPECTED EXCEPT 50S IN THE METRO AREAS AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST.

WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY...USHERING IN A DRIER
AIRMASS. DEWPTS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S IN THE VA HIGHLANDS TO THE
MID TO UPPER 30S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MAKING FOR A DRY DAY. NW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE SPREAD OF
WILDFIRES. PLEASE SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW. ANY CLOUDS IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD STAY
TO THE NORTH SUNDAY LEADING TO A SUNNY DAY WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
MID 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT AND
WILL PUSH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OFF THE EAST COAST. WINDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE BY MONDAY MORNING. CALM AND CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
MID 30S NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. PATCHY FROST IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS WERE TEMPERATURES MAY REACH
FREEZING. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST MONDAY AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL USHER IN WARMER CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BE THE TREND FOR
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE MID-WEST. MOISTURE IS LAGGING WITH ONLY LIGHT WAA ALOFT.
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG SHORTWAVE/PVA CROSSING GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF
THE CWA. ADDITIONAL WEAKER SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE EASTWARD IN 500MB
LONGWAVE TROUGH AND AFFECT THE CWA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE DOWN THE TROUGH AND REACH THE
EASTERN GULF STATES BEFORE STALLING AT WEEKS END.

COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL CROSS THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO CWA FRIDAY WHILE A LOW
DEVELOPS OVER GEORGIA IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE. PATTERN
INDICATES THAT PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT AFFECT THE
CWA UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD AND AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTROLS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. SW WINDS WILL BECOME W-NW
AS A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE TERMINALS. W-NW WINDS 15-20KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS EXPECTED. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY SUNSET
ON SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AND
WINDS WILL BECOME W-NW. SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC AND MD BAY SOUTH OF DRUM PT LATE
TONIGHT. A SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA AND EXPANDS FOR ALL THE
WATERS SUNDAY. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 28KTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE WATERS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
SUNDAY NIGHT AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY MONDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP DURING THIS
TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY AND GUSTY WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND IT.
W-NW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30MPH CAN BE EXPECTED.
DEWPTS ARE FCST TO DROP INTO THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS WITH RH VALUES AROUND
25-35% BY SUN AFTERNOON. LOW FUEL MOISTURES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED
ESPECIALLY IN THE BLUE RIDGE REGION OF VA. THE COMBINATION OF
GUSTY WINDS...LOW RH AND LOW FUEL MOISTURES WILL LEAD TO THE
ENHANCED THREAT OF WILDFIRES SUNDAY. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530>534-537-
     539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
     536-538-542.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...KRW/HAS/CEM









000
FXUS61 KRNK 260542
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
142 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS FOR SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PASS
ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT SUNDAY...

RADAR IS QUIET AND MODELS CONTINUE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT QPF
IN THE NC MTNS THIS MORNING...SO LOWERED POPS IN THE SE WV GROUP
AND KEPT ISOLATED ACROSS THE NC MTNS TIL DAWN. TEMPS RUNNING A
LITTLE MILDER SO ADJUSTED THOSE UP BASED ON LATEST TRENDS.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

WILL THROTTLE THE CLOUDS BACK A BIT BUT KEEP THE OVERALL FLAVOR
THE SAME.

QUITE THE WIND CONTRAST BETWEEN AREAS WHERE LOW LEVELS HAVE
DECOUPLED VS WHERE THEY HAVE NOT. FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AND HILLTOPS SHOULD REMAIN QUITE BREEZY.
HIGHER WINDS MAY ALSO MIX DOWN THROUGH DECOUPLED LAYERS
PERIODICALLY OVERNIGHT.

CONSIDERING OUR RECENT DRY SPELL AND THE PASSING OF A DRY
FRONT...FIRE WEATHER WILL BE A CONCERN SUNDAY. AS THE FRONT
PASSES...NORTHWEST CROSS BARRIER FLOW OF 40KTS WILL BRING
BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE MOUNTAINS INTO SUNDAY. AN
INVERSION WILL KEEP MOST OF THE HIGHER WINDS ALONG RIDGE
TOPS...THEN MIX DOWN TOWARDS SUNRISE AS INVERSION LOWERS.
BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN RELAXES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL WARM INTO THE M/U 60S WEST TO L/M 70S
EAST DESPITE HAVING A FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH DRY AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT AND WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON...RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
COMBINING LOW HUMIDITIES WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL MAKE FOR
ENHANCED FIRE DANGER. ANY BURNING IS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED. A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT WILL BE POSTED FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...

SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN ABOUT OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT RESULTING
IN ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ESPCLY IN THE VALLEYS WHERE CLEAR
SKIES/LIGHT WINDS MAY AGAIN LEAD TO LOWS IN THE 30S...WITH 40S
SE...AND 45-50 ON THE RIDGES AS WARM ADVECTION ALOFT STARTS TO
RETURN.

HIGH SHIFTS SLOWLY OFFSHORE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHILE THE MEAN
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING RETURN SW FLOW AND VERY STRONG WARM ADVECTION
WITH A 5-10 DEGREE RISE IN 85H TEMPS BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. MAY SEE SOME GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...OTRW EXPECTING PLENTY OF SUN AND RESULTING MILD TEMPS
WITH A LARGE DIURNAL SWING... PER HIGHS MOSTLY 70S MONDAY...AND
70S WEST TO LOWER 80S EAST TUESDAY.

WEAK COLD FRONT TO THE WEST WILL PUSH AN AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE
AND SHRA EAST TOWARD THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN
INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWER CHANCE WEST LATE PER VARIOUS
MODEL TIMING. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AND LATEST ECMWF
SHOWING BEST CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT...SLOWED UP POPS TO MAINLY LOW
CHANCE FAR WEST LATE AND DRY ELSW. SHOULD BE MUCH MILDER AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WITH MOST LOCATIONS STAYING IN THE 50S FOR LOWS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT SATURDAY...

STRONG SOUTHEAST RIDGING THAT RESULTED IN MILD TEMPS TO START THE
WEEK WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL SIGNAL THE ONSET OF DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. THIS BOUNDARY PRECEDED BY A NARROW RIBBON OF SHOWERS
LOOKS TO ARRIVE IN THE WEST EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THEN GRADUALLY
MAKE ITS WAY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
LATER SOLUTIONS PENDING STRENGTH OF THE RIDGING MAY EVEN SLOW MORE
SO TRENDING LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH FROPA WHILE KEEPING THINGS MILDER
DURING THE DAY. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ALSO LIKELY TO LIMIT
SHOWERS HEADING EAST SO KEEPING HIGH CHANCE POPS WESTERN SLOPES
PER WEAK CONVERGENCE AND LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHTS SE WHERE MAY BE
LITTLE LEFT TO THE MOISTURE AS SEEN VIA THE 12Z GFS. HIGHS MAINLY
LOW/MID 70S EAST AND 60S MOUNTAINS.

LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH PUSH OUT OF THE PASSING INITIAL 5H SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO PUSH THE FRONT TO THE SE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE MORE
ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE MEAN UPPER COLD POOL ACROSS THE LAKES
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A VERY
DEEP 5H TROUGH PER A FORECAST CLOSED UPPER SYSTEM HEADING INTO NEW
ENGLAND BY SATURDAY WITH THE MAIN PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY. STILL
SOME EARLIER MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE EC WANTING TO CLOSE THIS
OFF OVER THE REGION WHILE CONSENSUS FAVORS A MORE
PROGRESSIVE/NORTHWARD SCENARIO. THIS SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE CWA
BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY THRU FRIDAY WITH MOISTURE WITH WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SE AND SHALLOW COLD POOL PRECIP TO THE NW. HOWEVER
DEEPENING NW FLOW AND PASSAGE OF THE FINAL TROUGH AXIS...LIKELY TO
SWING UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS INTO GEAR SATURDAY...WHEN WELL
BELOW 0C 85H AIR WILL ADVECT IN ON STRONG NW FLOW PERHAPS MAKING
FOR THE COOLEST DAY SEEN SO FAR THIS FALL.

THIS ALONG WITH STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST WILL CAUSE A DAILY TAPERING OF TEMPS WITH HIGHS MOSTLY 50S TO
AROUND 60 BY FRIDAY...AND PERHAPS ONLY 40S WEST TO 50S EAST
SATURDAY. EXPECT LOWS TO DIP BELOW FREEZING MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND POSSIBLY ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 125 AM EDT SUNDAY...

LOW LVL INVERSION IN PLACE AT MOST SITES WITH THE STRONGER FLOW
ALOFT ALLOWING FOR SOME LOW LVL WIND SHEAR CONCERNS EARLY THIS TAF
PERIOD BUT WILL GO AWAY AROUND 09Z. DEALING WITH SOME MVFR TO HIGH
END IFR IN SE WV THIS MORNING MAINLY AT BLF...WITH VFR ELSEWHERE.

THE STRATOCU WILL CLEAR OUT BY DAWN AND MIXING WILL COMMENCE AT
ALL TAF SITES IN THE 14-16Z TIME FRAME. WNW WINDS OF 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20-30KTS EXPECTED UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. SHOULD BE
VFR THROUGH THE DAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE AFTER 22Z.

CONFIDENCE HIGH IN ALL TAF PARAMETERS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. LOWER RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSING OF THE
NEXT FRONT AND AN UPPER TROUGH SETTLING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.
VFR TO RETURN TO ALL SITES THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...

ON A SAFETY NOTE...RAPIDLY WARMING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL
CAUSE RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO DECREASE QUICKLY. AND SINCE IT HAS BEEN
SEVERAL DAYS SINCE OUR LAST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...FALLEN LEAVES AND
BRUSH WILL HAVE HAD TIME TO DRY OUT. AS SUCH...THE COMBINATION OF
GUSTY WINDS...LOW HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS WILL MAKE OUTDOOR BURNING
HAZARDOUS ON SUNDAY...POTENTIALLY CAUSING FIRES TO BURN OUT OF
CONTROL. BURNING IS THEREFORE STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THROUGH COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND AGRICULTURE
AGENCIES...THE GROWING SEASON FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA...SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA AND THE NORTH CAROLINA HIGHLANDS
HAS ENDED OCT 25TH. UNTIL THE GROWING SEASON BEGINS NEXT
SPRING...THERE WILL NOT BE ANY FROST ADVISORIES OR FREEZE WARNINGS
ISSUED FOR THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...MBS/RCS/WP
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...RAB/RCS/WP
FIRE WEATHER...RCS
CLIMATE...RCS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 260542
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
142 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS FOR SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PASS
ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT SUNDAY...

RADAR IS QUIET AND MODELS CONTINUE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT QPF
IN THE NC MTNS THIS MORNING...SO LOWERED POPS IN THE SE WV GROUP
AND KEPT ISOLATED ACROSS THE NC MTNS TIL DAWN. TEMPS RUNNING A
LITTLE MILDER SO ADJUSTED THOSE UP BASED ON LATEST TRENDS.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

WILL THROTTLE THE CLOUDS BACK A BIT BUT KEEP THE OVERALL FLAVOR
THE SAME.

QUITE THE WIND CONTRAST BETWEEN AREAS WHERE LOW LEVELS HAVE
DECOUPLED VS WHERE THEY HAVE NOT. FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AND HILLTOPS SHOULD REMAIN QUITE BREEZY.
HIGHER WINDS MAY ALSO MIX DOWN THROUGH DECOUPLED LAYERS
PERIODICALLY OVERNIGHT.

CONSIDERING OUR RECENT DRY SPELL AND THE PASSING OF A DRY
FRONT...FIRE WEATHER WILL BE A CONCERN SUNDAY. AS THE FRONT
PASSES...NORTHWEST CROSS BARRIER FLOW OF 40KTS WILL BRING
BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE MOUNTAINS INTO SUNDAY. AN
INVERSION WILL KEEP MOST OF THE HIGHER WINDS ALONG RIDGE
TOPS...THEN MIX DOWN TOWARDS SUNRISE AS INVERSION LOWERS.
BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN RELAXES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL WARM INTO THE M/U 60S WEST TO L/M 70S
EAST DESPITE HAVING A FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH DRY AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT AND WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON...RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
COMBINING LOW HUMIDITIES WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL MAKE FOR
ENHANCED FIRE DANGER. ANY BURNING IS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED. A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT WILL BE POSTED FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...

SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN ABOUT OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT RESULTING
IN ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ESPCLY IN THE VALLEYS WHERE CLEAR
SKIES/LIGHT WINDS MAY AGAIN LEAD TO LOWS IN THE 30S...WITH 40S
SE...AND 45-50 ON THE RIDGES AS WARM ADVECTION ALOFT STARTS TO
RETURN.

HIGH SHIFTS SLOWLY OFFSHORE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHILE THE MEAN
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING RETURN SW FLOW AND VERY STRONG WARM ADVECTION
WITH A 5-10 DEGREE RISE IN 85H TEMPS BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. MAY SEE SOME GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...OTRW EXPECTING PLENTY OF SUN AND RESULTING MILD TEMPS
WITH A LARGE DIURNAL SWING... PER HIGHS MOSTLY 70S MONDAY...AND
70S WEST TO LOWER 80S EAST TUESDAY.

WEAK COLD FRONT TO THE WEST WILL PUSH AN AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE
AND SHRA EAST TOWARD THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN
INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWER CHANCE WEST LATE PER VARIOUS
MODEL TIMING. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AND LATEST ECMWF
SHOWING BEST CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT...SLOWED UP POPS TO MAINLY LOW
CHANCE FAR WEST LATE AND DRY ELSW. SHOULD BE MUCH MILDER AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WITH MOST LOCATIONS STAYING IN THE 50S FOR LOWS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT SATURDAY...

STRONG SOUTHEAST RIDGING THAT RESULTED IN MILD TEMPS TO START THE
WEEK WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL SIGNAL THE ONSET OF DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. THIS BOUNDARY PRECEDED BY A NARROW RIBBON OF SHOWERS
LOOKS TO ARRIVE IN THE WEST EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THEN GRADUALLY
MAKE ITS WAY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
LATER SOLUTIONS PENDING STRENGTH OF THE RIDGING MAY EVEN SLOW MORE
SO TRENDING LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH FROPA WHILE KEEPING THINGS MILDER
DURING THE DAY. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ALSO LIKELY TO LIMIT
SHOWERS HEADING EAST SO KEEPING HIGH CHANCE POPS WESTERN SLOPES
PER WEAK CONVERGENCE AND LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHTS SE WHERE MAY BE
LITTLE LEFT TO THE MOISTURE AS SEEN VIA THE 12Z GFS. HIGHS MAINLY
LOW/MID 70S EAST AND 60S MOUNTAINS.

LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH PUSH OUT OF THE PASSING INITIAL 5H SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO PUSH THE FRONT TO THE SE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE MORE
ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE MEAN UPPER COLD POOL ACROSS THE LAKES
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A VERY
DEEP 5H TROUGH PER A FORECAST CLOSED UPPER SYSTEM HEADING INTO NEW
ENGLAND BY SATURDAY WITH THE MAIN PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY. STILL
SOME EARLIER MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE EC WANTING TO CLOSE THIS
OFF OVER THE REGION WHILE CONSENSUS FAVORS A MORE
PROGRESSIVE/NORTHWARD SCENARIO. THIS SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE CWA
BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY THRU FRIDAY WITH MOISTURE WITH WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SE AND SHALLOW COLD POOL PRECIP TO THE NW. HOWEVER
DEEPENING NW FLOW AND PASSAGE OF THE FINAL TROUGH AXIS...LIKELY TO
SWING UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS INTO GEAR SATURDAY...WHEN WELL
BELOW 0C 85H AIR WILL ADVECT IN ON STRONG NW FLOW PERHAPS MAKING
FOR THE COOLEST DAY SEEN SO FAR THIS FALL.

THIS ALONG WITH STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST WILL CAUSE A DAILY TAPERING OF TEMPS WITH HIGHS MOSTLY 50S TO
AROUND 60 BY FRIDAY...AND PERHAPS ONLY 40S WEST TO 50S EAST
SATURDAY. EXPECT LOWS TO DIP BELOW FREEZING MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND POSSIBLY ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 125 AM EDT SUNDAY...

LOW LVL INVERSION IN PLACE AT MOST SITES WITH THE STRONGER FLOW
ALOFT ALLOWING FOR SOME LOW LVL WIND SHEAR CONCERNS EARLY THIS TAF
PERIOD BUT WILL GO AWAY AROUND 09Z. DEALING WITH SOME MVFR TO HIGH
END IFR IN SE WV THIS MORNING MAINLY AT BLF...WITH VFR ELSEWHERE.

THE STRATOCU WILL CLEAR OUT BY DAWN AND MIXING WILL COMMENCE AT
ALL TAF SITES IN THE 14-16Z TIME FRAME. WNW WINDS OF 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20-30KTS EXPECTED UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. SHOULD BE
VFR THROUGH THE DAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE AFTER 22Z.

CONFIDENCE HIGH IN ALL TAF PARAMETERS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. LOWER RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSING OF THE
NEXT FRONT AND AN UPPER TROUGH SETTLING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.
VFR TO RETURN TO ALL SITES THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...

ON A SAFETY NOTE...RAPIDLY WARMING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL
CAUSE RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO DECREASE QUICKLY. AND SINCE IT HAS BEEN
SEVERAL DAYS SINCE OUR LAST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...FALLEN LEAVES AND
BRUSH WILL HAVE HAD TIME TO DRY OUT. AS SUCH...THE COMBINATION OF
GUSTY WINDS...LOW HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS WILL MAKE OUTDOOR BURNING
HAZARDOUS ON SUNDAY...POTENTIALLY CAUSING FIRES TO BURN OUT OF
CONTROL. BURNING IS THEREFORE STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THROUGH COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND AGRICULTURE
AGENCIES...THE GROWING SEASON FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA...SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA AND THE NORTH CAROLINA HIGHLANDS
HAS ENDED OCT 25TH. UNTIL THE GROWING SEASON BEGINS NEXT
SPRING...THERE WILL NOT BE ANY FROST ADVISORIES OR FREEZE WARNINGS
ISSUED FOR THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...MBS/RCS/WP
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...RAB/RCS/WP
FIRE WEATHER...RCS
CLIMATE...RCS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 260155
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
955 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS FOR SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PASS
ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 950 PM EDT SATURDAY...

ANOTHER ROUND OF QUITE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE GOING FORECAST. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT UPSLOPE CLOUD COVER HAS BECOME QUITE
SPARSE. THE ARW SEEMS TO HAVE A HANDLE ON THINGS REGARDING CLOUD
COVER AND IS INDICATING A BIT OF A SWD SURGE IN CLOUDS WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT. THUS...WILL THROTTLE THE CLOUDS BACK A BIT
BUT KEEP THE OVERALL FLAVOR THE SAME. BELIEVE THE PREVIOUS
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT TO POPS PUT THINGS IN THE RIGHT BALLPARK AND
WILL CONTINUE WITH VERY LIMITED POPS...MOSTLY 15 PERCENT OR
LESS...IN FAR WRN UPSLOPE AREAS FOR A SPRINKLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

QUITE THE WIND CONTRAST BETWEEN AREAS WHERE LOW LEVELS HAVE
DECOUPLED VS WHERE THEY HAVE NOT. LATEST OBS FROM KBCB ARE 3KT
WHILE KROA IS 14G24KT. WILL ATTEMPT TO INDICATE THIS AND GIVE THE
WINDS A LITTLE BUMP UPWARD. FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
OVERNIGHT AND HILLTOPS SHOULD REMAIN QUITE BREEZY. HIGHER WINDS
MAY ALSO MIX DOWN THROUGH DECOUPLED LAYERS PERIODICALLY OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION AS OF 248 PM EDT SATURDAY...

CLOUDS LIKELY TO REMAIN ON WESTERN SLOPES INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND
MAY MAKE IT TO THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT. DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL NOT
ALLOW ANY CLOUDS TO ADVANCE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. DO NOT EXPECT
ANY SHOWERS TO MOVE EAST OF BLF-LWB WITH THIS FRONT.

CONSIDERING OUR RECENT DRY SPELL AND THE PASSING OF A DRY
FRONT...FIRE WEATHER WILL BE A CONCERN SUNDAY. AS THE FRONT
PASSES...NORTHWEST CROSS BARRIER FLOW OF 40KTS WILL BRING
BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. AN INVERSION WILL KEEP MOST OF THE HIGHER WINDS ALONG
RIDGE TOPS...THEN MIX DOWN TOWARDS SUNRISE AS INVERSION LOWERS.
BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN RELAXES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL WARM INTO THE M/U 60S WEST TO L/M 70S
EAST DESPITE HAVING A FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH DRY AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT AND WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON...RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
COMBINING LOW HUMIDITIES WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL MAKE FOR
ENHANCED FIRE DANGER. ANY BURNING IS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED. A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT WILL BE POSTED FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...

SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN ABOUT OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT RESULTING
IN ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ESPCLY IN THE VALLEYS WHERE CLEAR
SKIES/LIGHT WINDS MAY AGAIN LEAD TO LOWS IN THE 30S...WITH 40S
SE...AND 45-50 ON THE RIDGES AS WARM ADVECTION ALOFT STARTS TO
RETURN.

HIGH SHIFTS SLOWLY OFFSHORE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHILE THE MEAN
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING RETURN SW FLOW AND VERY STRONG WARM ADVECTION
WITH A 5-10 DEGREE RISE IN 85H TEMPS BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. MAY SEE SOME GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...OTRW EXPECTING PLENTY OF SUN AND RESULTING MILD TEMPS
WITH A LARGE DIURNAL SWING... PER HIGHS MOSTLY 70S MONDAY...AND
70S WEST TO LOWER 80S EAST TUESDAY.

WEAK COLD FRONT TO THE WEST WILL PUSH AN AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE
AND SHRA EAST TOWARD THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN
INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWER CHANCE WEST LATE PER VARIOUS
MODEL TIMING. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AND LATEST ECMWF
SHOWING BEST CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT...SLOWED UP POPS TO MAINLY LOW
CHANCE FAR WEST LATE AND DRY ELSW. SHOULD BE MUCH MILDER AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WITH MOST LOCATIONS STAYING IN THE 50S FOR LOWS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT SATURDAY...

STRONG SOUTHEAST RIDGING THAT RESULTED IN MILD TEMPS TO START THE
WEEK WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL SIGNAL THE ONSET OF DEVELOPING UPPER TROFFINESS ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. THIS BOUNDARY PRECEDED BY A NARROW RIBBON OF SHOWERS
LOOKS TO ARRIVE IN THE WEST EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THEN GRADUALLY
MAKE ITS WAY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
LATER SOLUTIONS PENDING STRENGTH OF THE RIDGING MAY EVEN SLOW MORE
SO TRENDING LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH FROPA WHILE KEEPING THINGS MILDER
DURING THE DAY. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ALSO LIKELY TO LIMIT
SHOWERS HEADING EAST SO KEEPING HIGH CHANCE POPS WESTERN SLOPES
PER WEAK CONVERGENCE AND LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHTS SE WHERE MAY BE
LITTLE LEFT TO THE MOISTURE AS SEEN VIA THE 12Z GFS. HIGHS MAINLY
LOW/MID 70S EAST AND 60S MOUNTAINS.

LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH PUSH OUT OF THE PASSING INITIAL 5H SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO PUSH THE FRONT TO THE SE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE MORE
ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE MEAN UPPER COLD POOL ACROSS THE LAKES
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A VERY
DEEP 5H TROUGH PER A FORECAST CLOSED UPPER SYSTEM HEADING INTO NEW
ENGLAND BY SATURDAY WITH THE MAIN PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY. STILL
SOME EARLIER MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE EC WANTING TO CLOSE THIS
OFF OVER THE REGION WHILE CONSENSUS FAVORS A MORE
PROGRESSIVE/NORTHWARD SCENARIO. THIS SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE CWA
BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY THRU FRIDAY WITH MOISTURE WITH WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SE AND SHALLOW COLD POOL PRECIP TO THE NW. HOWEVER
DEEPENING NW FLOW AND PASSAGE OF THE FINAL TROUGH AXIS...LIKELY TO
SWING UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS INTO GEAR SATURDAY...WHEN WELL
BELOW 0C 85H AIR WILL ADVECT IN ON STRONG NW FLOW PERHAPS MAKING
FOR THE COOLEST DAY SEEN SO FAR THIS FALL.

THIS ALONG WITH STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST WILL CAUSE A DAILY TAPERING OF TEMPS WITH HIGHS MOSTLY 50S TO
AROUND 60 BY FRIDAY...AND PERHAPS ONLY 40S WEST TO 50S EAST
SATURDAY. EXPECT LOWS TO DIP BELOW FREEZING MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND POSSIBLY ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT SATURDAY...

WEEK FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED
WITHIN PREVAILING NW FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVED ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. MAIN EFFECT WILL BE TO REINFORCE THE DRY AIR THAT HAS
BEEN PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION THE PAST FEW DAYS. WINDS WILL VEER
FROM WSW TO WNW OVERNIGHT AND WE MAY SEE SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN
SPEED AND LOW END GUSTS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AFT 04Z...BUT THE
MAIN INCREASE IN THE WIND WILL BE AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY...WITH
PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE WNW 10-12KTS WITH GUSTS 18-25KTS
DEPENDING ON LOCATION. SCT-BKN MVFR-LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED IN
UPSLOPE AREAS ALONG THE ALLEGHANY FRONT AND AT TIMES SPILLING
SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST INTO THE NEW RIVER VALLEY. CLOUDS WILL
MAINLY IMPACT BLF/LWB OVERNIGHT. THESE CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS
EASTERN WV TOWARD MID/LATE MORNING SUN...OTHERWISE VFR AT ALL
SITES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD AND AT
ALL SITES AFT EARLY AFTERNOON SUN. PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. VFR VISIBILITIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
ALL TAF SITES.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

DRY AND WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LOWER
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSING OF THE NEXT
FRONT AND AN UPPER TROUGH SETTLING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...

ON A SAFETY NOTE...RAPIDLY WARMING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL
CAUSE RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO DECREASE QUICKLY. AND SINCE IT HAS BEEN
SEVERAL DAYS SINCE OUR LAST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...FALLEN LEAVES AND
BRUSH WILL HAVE HAD TIME TO DRY OUT. AS SUCH...THE COMBINATION OF
GUSTY WINDS...LOW HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS WILL MAKE OUTDOOR BURNING
HAZARDOUS ON SUNDAY...POTENTIALLY CAUSING FIRES TO BURN OUT OF
CONTROL. BURNING IS THEREFORE STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THROUGH COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND AGRICULTURE
AGENCIES...THE GROWING SEASON FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA...SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA AND THE NORTH CAROLINA HIGHLANDS
HAS ENDED TODAY...OCT 25TH. UNTIL THE GROWING SEASON BEGINS NEXT
SPRING...THERE WILL NOT BE ANY FROST ADVISORIES OR FREEZE WARNINGS
ISSUED FOR THE RNK MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...MBS/RCS/SK
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...RAB/RCS
FIRE WEATHER...RCS
CLIMATE...RCS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 260155
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
955 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS FOR SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PASS
ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 950 PM EDT SATURDAY...

ANOTHER ROUND OF QUITE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE GOING FORECAST. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT UPSLOPE CLOUD COVER HAS BECOME QUITE
SPARSE. THE ARW SEEMS TO HAVE A HANDLE ON THINGS REGARDING CLOUD
COVER AND IS INDICATING A BIT OF A SWD SURGE IN CLOUDS WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT. THUS...WILL THROTTLE THE CLOUDS BACK A BIT
BUT KEEP THE OVERALL FLAVOR THE SAME. BELIEVE THE PREVIOUS
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT TO POPS PUT THINGS IN THE RIGHT BALLPARK AND
WILL CONTINUE WITH VERY LIMITED POPS...MOSTLY 15 PERCENT OR
LESS...IN FAR WRN UPSLOPE AREAS FOR A SPRINKLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

QUITE THE WIND CONTRAST BETWEEN AREAS WHERE LOW LEVELS HAVE
DECOUPLED VS WHERE THEY HAVE NOT. LATEST OBS FROM KBCB ARE 3KT
WHILE KROA IS 14G24KT. WILL ATTEMPT TO INDICATE THIS AND GIVE THE
WINDS A LITTLE BUMP UPWARD. FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
OVERNIGHT AND HILLTOPS SHOULD REMAIN QUITE BREEZY. HIGHER WINDS
MAY ALSO MIX DOWN THROUGH DECOUPLED LAYERS PERIODICALLY OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION AS OF 248 PM EDT SATURDAY...

CLOUDS LIKELY TO REMAIN ON WESTERN SLOPES INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND
MAY MAKE IT TO THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT. DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL NOT
ALLOW ANY CLOUDS TO ADVANCE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. DO NOT EXPECT
ANY SHOWERS TO MOVE EAST OF BLF-LWB WITH THIS FRONT.

CONSIDERING OUR RECENT DRY SPELL AND THE PASSING OF A DRY
FRONT...FIRE WEATHER WILL BE A CONCERN SUNDAY. AS THE FRONT
PASSES...NORTHWEST CROSS BARRIER FLOW OF 40KTS WILL BRING
BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. AN INVERSION WILL KEEP MOST OF THE HIGHER WINDS ALONG
RIDGE TOPS...THEN MIX DOWN TOWARDS SUNRISE AS INVERSION LOWERS.
BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN RELAXES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL WARM INTO THE M/U 60S WEST TO L/M 70S
EAST DESPITE HAVING A FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH DRY AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT AND WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON...RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
COMBINING LOW HUMIDITIES WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL MAKE FOR
ENHANCED FIRE DANGER. ANY BURNING IS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED. A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT WILL BE POSTED FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...

SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN ABOUT OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT RESULTING
IN ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ESPCLY IN THE VALLEYS WHERE CLEAR
SKIES/LIGHT WINDS MAY AGAIN LEAD TO LOWS IN THE 30S...WITH 40S
SE...AND 45-50 ON THE RIDGES AS WARM ADVECTION ALOFT STARTS TO
RETURN.

HIGH SHIFTS SLOWLY OFFSHORE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHILE THE MEAN
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING RETURN SW FLOW AND VERY STRONG WARM ADVECTION
WITH A 5-10 DEGREE RISE IN 85H TEMPS BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. MAY SEE SOME GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...OTRW EXPECTING PLENTY OF SUN AND RESULTING MILD TEMPS
WITH A LARGE DIURNAL SWING... PER HIGHS MOSTLY 70S MONDAY...AND
70S WEST TO LOWER 80S EAST TUESDAY.

WEAK COLD FRONT TO THE WEST WILL PUSH AN AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE
AND SHRA EAST TOWARD THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN
INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWER CHANCE WEST LATE PER VARIOUS
MODEL TIMING. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AND LATEST ECMWF
SHOWING BEST CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT...SLOWED UP POPS TO MAINLY LOW
CHANCE FAR WEST LATE AND DRY ELSW. SHOULD BE MUCH MILDER AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WITH MOST LOCATIONS STAYING IN THE 50S FOR LOWS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT SATURDAY...

STRONG SOUTHEAST RIDGING THAT RESULTED IN MILD TEMPS TO START THE
WEEK WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL SIGNAL THE ONSET OF DEVELOPING UPPER TROFFINESS ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. THIS BOUNDARY PRECEDED BY A NARROW RIBBON OF SHOWERS
LOOKS TO ARRIVE IN THE WEST EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THEN GRADUALLY
MAKE ITS WAY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
LATER SOLUTIONS PENDING STRENGTH OF THE RIDGING MAY EVEN SLOW MORE
SO TRENDING LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH FROPA WHILE KEEPING THINGS MILDER
DURING THE DAY. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ALSO LIKELY TO LIMIT
SHOWERS HEADING EAST SO KEEPING HIGH CHANCE POPS WESTERN SLOPES
PER WEAK CONVERGENCE AND LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHTS SE WHERE MAY BE
LITTLE LEFT TO THE MOISTURE AS SEEN VIA THE 12Z GFS. HIGHS MAINLY
LOW/MID 70S EAST AND 60S MOUNTAINS.

LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH PUSH OUT OF THE PASSING INITIAL 5H SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO PUSH THE FRONT TO THE SE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE MORE
ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE MEAN UPPER COLD POOL ACROSS THE LAKES
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A VERY
DEEP 5H TROUGH PER A FORECAST CLOSED UPPER SYSTEM HEADING INTO NEW
ENGLAND BY SATURDAY WITH THE MAIN PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY. STILL
SOME EARLIER MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE EC WANTING TO CLOSE THIS
OFF OVER THE REGION WHILE CONSENSUS FAVORS A MORE
PROGRESSIVE/NORTHWARD SCENARIO. THIS SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE CWA
BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY THRU FRIDAY WITH MOISTURE WITH WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SE AND SHALLOW COLD POOL PRECIP TO THE NW. HOWEVER
DEEPENING NW FLOW AND PASSAGE OF THE FINAL TROUGH AXIS...LIKELY TO
SWING UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS INTO GEAR SATURDAY...WHEN WELL
BELOW 0C 85H AIR WILL ADVECT IN ON STRONG NW FLOW PERHAPS MAKING
FOR THE COOLEST DAY SEEN SO FAR THIS FALL.

THIS ALONG WITH STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST WILL CAUSE A DAILY TAPERING OF TEMPS WITH HIGHS MOSTLY 50S TO
AROUND 60 BY FRIDAY...AND PERHAPS ONLY 40S WEST TO 50S EAST
SATURDAY. EXPECT LOWS TO DIP BELOW FREEZING MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND POSSIBLY ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT SATURDAY...

WEEK FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED
WITHIN PREVAILING NW FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVED ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. MAIN EFFECT WILL BE TO REINFORCE THE DRY AIR THAT HAS
BEEN PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION THE PAST FEW DAYS. WINDS WILL VEER
FROM WSW TO WNW OVERNIGHT AND WE MAY SEE SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN
SPEED AND LOW END GUSTS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AFT 04Z...BUT THE
MAIN INCREASE IN THE WIND WILL BE AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY...WITH
PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE WNW 10-12KTS WITH GUSTS 18-25KTS
DEPENDING ON LOCATION. SCT-BKN MVFR-LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED IN
UPSLOPE AREAS ALONG THE ALLEGHANY FRONT AND AT TIMES SPILLING
SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST INTO THE NEW RIVER VALLEY. CLOUDS WILL
MAINLY IMPACT BLF/LWB OVERNIGHT. THESE CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS
EASTERN WV TOWARD MID/LATE MORNING SUN...OTHERWISE VFR AT ALL
SITES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD AND AT
ALL SITES AFT EARLY AFTERNOON SUN. PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. VFR VISIBILITIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
ALL TAF SITES.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

DRY AND WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LOWER
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSING OF THE NEXT
FRONT AND AN UPPER TROUGH SETTLING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...

ON A SAFETY NOTE...RAPIDLY WARMING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL
CAUSE RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO DECREASE QUICKLY. AND SINCE IT HAS BEEN
SEVERAL DAYS SINCE OUR LAST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...FALLEN LEAVES AND
BRUSH WILL HAVE HAD TIME TO DRY OUT. AS SUCH...THE COMBINATION OF
GUSTY WINDS...LOW HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS WILL MAKE OUTDOOR BURNING
HAZARDOUS ON SUNDAY...POTENTIALLY CAUSING FIRES TO BURN OUT OF
CONTROL. BURNING IS THEREFORE STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THROUGH COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND AGRICULTURE
AGENCIES...THE GROWING SEASON FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA...SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA AND THE NORTH CAROLINA HIGHLANDS
HAS ENDED TODAY...OCT 25TH. UNTIL THE GROWING SEASON BEGINS NEXT
SPRING...THERE WILL NOT BE ANY FROST ADVISORIES OR FREEZE WARNINGS
ISSUED FOR THE RNK MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...MBS/RCS/SK
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...RAB/RCS
FIRE WEATHER...RCS
CLIMATE...RCS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 260141
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
941 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH
GRADUALLY SLIDES OFF THE COAST MONDAY...AND BECOMES CENTERED WELL
OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS REVEALING A SFC COLD FRONT ACRS THE OH VALLEY.
THIS FRONT REMAINS QUITE WEAK WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM SW AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY TO WNW IN ITS WAKE (WITH AIRMASS ACRS THE UPPER
MIDWEST ONLY MARGINALLY COOLER). IR SATELLITE SHOWING JUST A FEW
SHOWERS OVER NY/PA WITH JUST A FEW MID/HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO
PUSH THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA LATER TONIGHT. ENOUGH MIXING
ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FAIRLY MILD...RAISED
MINS A FEW DEGREES ACRS THE NORTH AND WEST (KEPT THEM ABOUT THE
SAME AS PREVIOUS FORECAST ACRS THE INTERIOR SE WHERE WINDS ARE
GENLY CALM). OVERALL...LOWS WILL AVG 50-55 F WITH A FEW UPPER 40S
OVER INTERIOR SE/S VA AND NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRS
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. WEAK CAA COMBINED WITH A COMPRESSED PRS
GRADIENT BEHIND FROPA RESULTS IN A WELL MIXED AIRMASS SUNDAY. XPCT
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS (15-25 WITH G30 MPH) ALONG THE COAST...
LIGHTER WINDS (10-20 MPH) WEST OF THE BAY. THE DOWNSLPOING COMPONENT
TO THE WIND ALLOWS TMPS TO REACH BTWN 70-75.

THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THEN SHIFTS
OFFSHORE TUESDAY. DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PT TO MSTLY SUNNY DAYS
AND FAIR NIGHTS. COOL SUN NIGHT. LOWS IN THE U30S-L40S...45-50 AT
THE BEACHES. H85 TMPS ARND 13C RESULTS IN HIGHS U60S-L70S MON.

RETURN FLOW SETS UP MONDAY NIGHT AND TUES RESULTING IN A WRMG TREND.
LOWS MON NIGHT IN THE U40S-M50S. H85 TMPS ARND 16C SPRT HIGHS IN THE
U70S-L80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FORECAST ESPECIALLY TOWARD NEXT
WEEKEND. INITIAL FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES OF TIMING ON THE FRONT. HAVE CHANCE POPS OF SHOWERS WITH
THIS FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH. THEN BEGINNING FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
THE MODELS DIVERGE. HAVE THE ECMWF DEVELOPING A DEEP CUTOFF LOW OVER
THE SOUTHEAST US WHILE THE GFS HAS THE CUTOFF DEVELOPING MORE TOWARD
NEW ENGLAND WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. THE ECMWF IS TOWARD THE
DEEPEST ENSEMBLE SOLUTION. HOWEVER THE OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN IS
SUCH THAT IT COULD SUPPORT THE CUTOFF OVER SOUTHEASTERN US. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH HOW FUTURE MODEL RUNS DEVELOP. EITHER WAY STARTING
ON THURSDAY COLDER AIR BEGINS TO ARRIVE AND WE HAVE THE COLDEST
AIR THIS FALL ACROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY. THIS DROPS HIGHS INTO
THE 50S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN WESTERN
SECTIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 30S. IF THE WINDS STAY
UP SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING OVER ALL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A TROF FOLLOWED BY A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THRU THE
REGION OVRNGT. SW TO W WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NW AND BECOME BREEZY
BY DAYBREAK SUN MORNG INTO SUN AFTN. GUSTS WILL AVERAGE 15-20 KT INLAND
WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARND 25 KT POSSIBLE ALNG THE IMMEDIATE CST. HI
PRES SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLC REGION SUN NGT AND MON...THEN
SLIDES OFF THE CST FOR MON NGT INTO WED MORNG. CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE DRY/VFR WITH WINDS BECOMING SSW AT GENERALLY LESS
THAN 15 KT MON AFTN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
AREA WED INTO WED EVENG.

&&

.MARINE...
THE PRES GRAD ALONG THE BAY AND COAST HAS TIGHTENED THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
15KT OVER THE WATER WILL PERSIST TONIGHT BECOMING WEST OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AFTER 2 AM. SPEEDS
WILL INCREASE TO DUE TO LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION (15KT
RIVERS/SOUND...15-20KT WITH GUSTS TO 25KT CHES BAY...15-25KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25 TO 30KT COASTAL WATERS FENWICK ISLAND TO VA/NC
BORDER). SEAS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE SLOW TO RISE DUE TO
A W-NW DIRECTION BUT SHOULD AVERAGE 3-4FT FROM 10-20NM. UP TO 5FT
SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR 20NM FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO
CHINCOTEAGUE. WAVES IN THE BAY SHOULD BUILD TO 3 FT BY DAYBREAK. SCA
FLAGS HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR CHES BAY AND COASTAL WATERS FROM
FENWICK ISLAND TO THE VA/NC BORDER BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH SUNDAY. HAVE HELD OFF ON A SCA FOR
THE RIVERS...HOWEVER...THE RIVERS COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA
CONDS SUNDAY MORNING WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE WATERS ON MONDAY AND THEN SLIDES EWD OFF THE COAST MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATER
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL AGAIN GENERATE SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS MID AND LATE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTR COORD WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES / STATE AGENCIES...WILL NOT ISSUE
ANY FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS ATTM. HAVE CONTINUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE GUSTY
WINDS & RH`S 25 TO 30% ACROSS THE ERN SHORE IN THE FWF. RH`S OVER
THE PIEDMONT WILL DROP TO 20-25% BUT WITH SOMEWHAT LESS WIND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ632-
     634-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630-
     631.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...TMG/JAO
MARINE...JAB/JAO
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KLWX 260054 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
854 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MONDAY. THE HIGH
WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE. RAISED
MIN TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES IN THE METRO AREAS AND REMOVED POPS
ALONG THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.

DRY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AM. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 40S CAN BE
EXPECTED EXCEPT 50S IN THE METRO AREAS AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST.

WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY...USHERING IN A DRIER
AIRMASS. DEWPTS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S IN THE VA HIGHLANDS TO THE
MID TO UPPER 30S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MAKING FOR A DRY DAY. NW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE SPREAD OF
WILDFIRES. PLEASE SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW. ANY CLOUDS IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD STAY
TO THE NORTH SUNDAY LEADING TO A SUNNY DAY WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
MID 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT AND
WILL PUSH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OFF THE EAST COAST. WINDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE BY MONDAY MORNING. CALM AND CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
MID 30S NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. PATCHY FROST IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS WERE TEMPERATURES MAY REACH
FREEZING. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST MONDAY AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL USHER IN WARMER CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BE THE TREND FOR
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE MID-WEST. MOISTURE IS LAGGING WITH ONLY LIGHT WAA ALOFT.
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG SHORTWAVE/PVA CROSSING GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF
THE CWA. ADDITIONAL WEAKER SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE EASTWARD IN 500MB
LONGWAVE TROUGH AND AFFECT THE CWA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE DOWN THE TROUGH AND REACH THE
EASTERN GULF STATES BEFORE STALLING AT WEEKS END.

COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL CROSS THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO CWA FRIDAY WHILE A LOW
DEVELOPS OVER GEORGIA IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE. PATTERN
INDICATES THAT PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT AFFECT THE
CWA UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD AND AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTROLS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. SW WINDS WILL BECOME W-NW
AS A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE TERMINALS. W-NW WINDS 15-20KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS EXPECTED. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY SUNSET
ON SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AND
WINDS WILL BECOME W-NW. SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC AND MD BAY SOUTH OF DRUM PT LATE
TONIGHT. A SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA AND EXPANDS FOR ALL THE
WATERS SUNDAY. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 28KTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE WATERS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
SUNDAY NIGHT AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY MONDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP DURING THIS
TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY AND GUSTY WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND IT.
W-NW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30MPH CAN BE EXPECTED.
DEWPTS ARE FCST TO DROP INTO THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS WITH RH VALUES AROUND
25-35% BY SUN AFTERNOON. LOW FUEL MOISTURES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED
ESPECIALLY IN THE BLUE RIDGE REGION OF VA. THE COMBINATION OF
GUSTY WINDS...LOW RH AND LOW FUEL MOISTURES WILL LEAD TO THE
ENHANCED THREAT OF WILDFIRES SUNDAY. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ530>533-539>541.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ535-
     536-538-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...HAS/KRW
MARINE...HAS/KRW
FIRE WEATHER...HAS/KRW








000
FXUS61 KRNK 252352
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
752 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS FOR SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PASS
ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 706 PM EDT SATURDAY...

ONLY VERY MINOR CHANGES THIS EVENING MAINLY TO TWEAK FOR LATEST
OBSERVATIONS. GENERALLY CLEAR IN PIEDMONT AND WINDS BEGINNING TO
DECOUPLE WITH SUNSET...BUT EXPECT BY MIDNIGHT OR SO THAT NOCTURNAL
INVERSION WILL MIX OUT AND WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN BEHIND THE
CLIPPER SYSTEM. INCREASED GUSTS ON RIDGES A LITTLE OVERNIGHT
BASED ON FORECAST WINDS ALOFT...MAY NEED TO BUMP UP EVEN MORE.
REALLY NOT IMPRESSED WITH CHANCES FOR ANY UPSLOPE PRECIP GIVEN HOW
SHALLOW MOISTURE IS...AND ONLY NAM AND HIGH RES NMM MODEL
SUGGESTING SOMETHING WILL BE SQUEEZED OUT. EVERY OTHER MODEL
REMAINS DRY. A FEW SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE AT BEST. HOWEVER...ONLY
HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS GOING AND WHILE TWEAKED DOWN A TAD...CHANGED
FROM ISOLD SHOWERS TO SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES.

PREV DISCUSSION AS OF 248 PM EDT SATURDAY...

A DRY CLIPPER FRONT ENTERS THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. MOISTURE
WILL BE SHALLOW FOR A POSSIBLE STRAY SHOWER...BUT AT
MOST...LOOKING AT SOME DRIZZLE ALONG WESTERN SLOPES. FLOW ALOFT
WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING INTO A
RELATIVE DRY AIR MASS. CLOUDS LIKELY TO REMAIN ON WESTERN SLOPES
INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND MAY MAKE IT TO THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT.
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL NOT ALLOW ANY CLOUDS TO ADVANCE EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS TO MOVE EAST OF BLF-LWB WITH
THIS FRONT.

CONSIDERING OUR RECENT DRY SPELL AND THE PASSING OF A DRY
FRONT...FIRE WEATHER WILL BE A CONCERN SUNDAY. AS THE FRONT
PASSES...NORTHWEST CROSS BARRIER FLOW OF 40KTS WILL BRING
BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. AN INVERSION WILL KEEP MOST OF THE HIGHER WINDS ALONG
RIDGE TOPS...THEN MIX DOWN TOWARDS SUNRISE AS INVERSION LOWERS.
BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN RELAXES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL WARM INTO THE M/U 60S WEST TO L/M 70S
EAST DESPITE HAVING A FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH DRY AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT AND WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON...RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
COMBINING LOW HUMIDITIES WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL MAKE FOR
ENHANCED FIRE DANGER. ANY BURNING IS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED. A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT WILL BE POSTED FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...

SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN ABOUT OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT RESULTING
IN ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ESPCLY IN THE VALLEYS WHERE CLEAR
SKIES/LIGHT WINDS MAY AGAIN LEAD TO LOWS IN THE 30S...WITH 40S
SE...AND 45-50 ON THE RIDGES AS WARM ADVECTION ALOFT STARTS TO
RETURN.

HIGH SHIFTS SLOWLY OFFSHORE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHILE THE MEAN
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING RETURN SW FLOW AND VERY STRONG WARM ADVECTION
WITH A 5-10 DEGREE RISE IN 85H TEMPS BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. MAY SEE SOME GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...OTRW EXPECTING PLENTY OF SUN AND RESULTING MILD TEMPS
WITH A LARGE DIURNAL SWING... PER HIGHS MOSTLY 70S MONDAY...AND
70S WEST TO LOWER 80S EAST TUESDAY.

WEAK COLD FRONT TO THE WEST WILL PUSH AN AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE
AND SHRA EAST TOWARD THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN
INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWER CHANCE WEST LATE PER VARIOUS
MODEL TIMING. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AND LATEST ECMWF
SHOWING BEST CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT...SLOWED UP POPS TO MAINLY LOW
CHANCE FAR WEST LATE AND DRY ELSW. SHOULD BE MUCH MILDER AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WITH MOST LOCATIONS STAYING IN THE 50S FOR LOWS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT SATURDAY...

STRONG SOUTHEAST RIDGING THAT RESULTED IN MILD TEMPS TO START THE
WEEK WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL SIGNAL THE ONSET OF DEVELOPING UPPER TROFFINESS ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. THIS BOUNDARY PRECEDED BY A NARROW RIBBON OF SHOWERS
LOOKS TO ARRIVE IN THE WEST EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THEN GRADUALLY
MAKE ITS WAY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
LATER SOLUTIONS PENDING STRENGTH OF THE RIDGING MAY EVEN SLOW MORE
SO TRENDING LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH FROPA WHILE KEEPING THINGS MILDER
DURING THE DAY. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ALSO LIKELY TO LIMIT
SHOWERS HEADING EAST SO KEEPING HIGH CHANCE POPS WESTERN SLOPES
PER WEAK CONVERGENCE AND LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHTS SE WHERE MAY BE
LITTLE LEFT TO THE MOISTURE AS SEEN VIA THE 12Z GFS. HIGHS MAINLY
LOW/MID 70S EAST AND 60S MOUNTAINS.

LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH PUSH OUT OF THE PASSING INITIAL 5H SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO PUSH THE FRONT TO THE SE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE MORE
ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE MEAN UPPER COLD POOL ACROSS THE LAKES
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A VERY
DEEP 5H TROUGH PER A FORECAST CLOSED UPPER SYSTEM HEADING INTO NEW
ENGLAND BY SATURDAY WITH THE MAIN PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY. STILL
SOME EARLIER MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE EC WANTING TO CLOSE THIS
OFF OVER THE REGION WHILE CONSENSUS FAVORS A MORE
PROGRESSIVE/NORTHWARD SCENARIO. THIS SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE CWA
BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY THRU FRIDAY WITH MOISTURE WITH WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SE AND SHALLOW COLD POOL PRECIP TO THE NW. HOWEVER
DEEPENING NW FLOW AND PASSAGE OF THE FINAL TROUGH AXIS...LIKELY TO
SWING UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS INTO GEAR SATURDAY...WHEN WELL
BELOW 0C 85H AIR WILL ADVECT IN ON STRONG NW FLOW PERHAPS MAKING
FOR THE COOLEST DAY SEEN SO FAR THIS FALL.

THIS ALONG WITH STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST WILL CAUSE A DAILY TAPERING OF TEMPS WITH HIGHS MOSTLY 50S TO
AROUND 60 BY FRIDAY...AND PERHAPS ONLY 40S WEST TO 50S EAST
SATURDAY. EXPECT LOWS TO DIP BELOW FREEZING MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND POSSIBLY ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT SATURDAY...

WEEK FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED
WITHIN PREVAILING NW FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVED ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. MAIN EFFECT WILL BE TO REINFORCE THE DRY AIR THAT HAS
BEEN PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION THE PAST FEW DAYS. WINDS WILL VEER
FROM WSW TO WNW OVERNIGHT AND WE MAY SEE SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN
SPEED AND LOW END GUSTS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AFT 04Z...BUT THE
MAIN INCREASE IN THE WIND WILL BE AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY...WITH
PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE WNW 10-12KTS WITH GUSTS 18-25KTS
DEPENDING ON LOCATION. SCT-BKN MVFR-LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED IN
UPSLOPE AREAS ALONG THE ALLEGHANY FRONT AND AT TIMES SPILLING
SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST INTO THE NEW RIVER VALLEY. CLOUDS WILL
MAINLY IMPACT BLF/LWB OVERNIGHT. THESE CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS
EASTERN WV TOWARD MID/LATE MORNING SUN...OTHERWISE VFR AT ALL
SITES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD AND AT
ALL SITES AFT EARLY AFTERNOON SUN. PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. VFR VISIBILITIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
ALL TAF SITES.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

DRY AND WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LOWER
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSING OF THE NEXT
FRONT AND AN UPPER TROUGH SETTLING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...

ON A SAFETY NOTE...RAPIDLY WARMING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL
CAUSE RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO DECREASE QUICKLY. AND SINCE IT HAS BEEN
SEVERAL DAYS SINCE OUR LAST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...FALLEN LEAVES AND
BRUSH WILL HAVE HAD TIME TO DRY OUT. AS SUCH...THE COMBINATION OF
GUSTY WINDS...LOW HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS WILL MAKE OUTDOOR BURNING
HAZARDOUS ON SUNDAY...POTENTIALLY CAUSING FIRES TO BURN OUT OF
CONTROL. BURNING IS THEREFORE STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THROUGH COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND AGRICULTURE
AGENCIES...THE GROWING SEASON FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA...SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA AND THE NORTH CAROLINA HIGHLANDS
HAS ENDED TODAY...OCT 25TH. UNTIL THE GROWING SEASON BEGINS NEXT
SPRING...THERE WILL NOT BE ANY FROST ADVISORIES OR FREEZE WARNINGS
ISSUED FOR THE RNK MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...RCS/SK
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...RAB/RCS
FIRE WEATHER...RCS
CLIMATE...RCS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 252350
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
750 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH
GRADUALLY SLIDES OFF THE COAST MONDAY...AND BECOMES CENTERED WELL
OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS REVEALING A SFC COLD FRONT ACRS THE OH VALLEY.
THIS FRONT REMAINS QUITE WEAK WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM SW AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY TO WNW IN ITS WAKE (WITH AIRMASS ACRS THE UPPER
MIDWEST ONLY MARGINALLY COOLER). IR SATELLITE SHOWING JUST A FEW
SHOWERS OVER NY/PA WITH JUST A FEW MID/HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO
PUSH THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA LATER TONIGHT. ENOUGH MIXING
ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FAIRLY MILD...RAISED
MINS A FEW DEGREES ACRS THE NORTH AND WEST (KEPT THEM ABOUT THE
SAME AS PREVIOUS FORECAST ACRS THE INTERIOR SE WHERE WINDS ARE
GENLY CALM). OVERALL...LOWS WILL AVG 50-55 F WITH A FEW UPPER 40S
OVER INTERIOR SE/S VA AND NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRS
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. WEAK CAA COMBINED WITH A COMPRESSED PRS
GRADIENT BEHIND FROPA RESULTS IN A WELL MIXED AIRMASS SUNDAY. XPCT
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS (15-25 WITH G30 MPH) ALONG THE COAST...
LIGHTER WINDS (10-20 MPH) WEST OF THE BAY. THE DOWNSLPOING COMPONENT
TO THE WIND ALLOWS TMPS TO REACH BTWN 70-75.

THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THEN SHIFTS
OFFSHORE TUESDAY. DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PT TO MSTLY SUNNY DAYS
AND FAIR NIGHTS. COOL SUN NIGHT. LOWS IN THE U30S-L40S...45-50 AT
THE BEACHES. H85 TMPS ARND 13C RESULTS IN HIGHS U60S-L70S MON.

RETURN FLOW SETS UP MONDAY NIGHT AND TUES RESULTING IN A WRMG TREND.
LOWS MON NIGHT IN THE U40S-M50S. H85 TMPS ARND 16C SPRT HIGHS IN THE
U70S-L80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FORECAST ESPECIALLY TOWARD NEXT
WEEKEND. INITIAL FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES OF TIMING ON THE FRONT. HAVE CHANCE POPS OF SHOWERS WITH
THIS FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH. THEN BEGINNING FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
THE MODELS DIVERGE. HAVE THE ECMWF DEVELOPING A DEEP CUTOFF LOW OVER
THE SOUTHEAST US WHILE THE GFS HAS THE CUTOFF DEVELOPING MORE TOWARD
NEW ENGLAND WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. THE ECMWF IS TOWARD THE
DEEPEST ENSEMBLE SOLUTION. HOWEVER THE OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN IS
SUCH THAT IT COULD SUPPORT THE CUTOFF OVER SOUTHEASTERN US. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH HOW FUTURE MODEL RUNS DEVELOP. EITHER WAY STARTING
ON THURSDAY COLDER AIR BEGINS TO ARRIVE AND WE HAVE THE COLDEST
AIR THIS FALL ACROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY. THIS DROPS HIGHS INTO
THE 50S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN WESTERN
SECTIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 30S. IF THE WINDS STAY
UP SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING OVER ALL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A TROF FOLLOWED BY A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THRU THE
REGION THIS EVENING/OVRNGT AND WILL BRING SCTD CLOUDS OF 7-10 KFT
TO THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 25/2100Z NW THRU 26/0600Z SE. SW OR W
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NW AND BECOME BREEZY FOR SUN MORNG INTO SUN
AFTN. GUSTS WILL AVERAGE 15-20 KT INLAND WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARND
25 KT POSSIBLE ALNG THE IMMEDIATE CST. HI PRES SETTLES OVER THE
MID ATLC REGION SUN NGT AND MON...THEN SLIDES OFF THE CST FOR MON
NGT INTO WED MORNG. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY/VFR WITH
WINDS BECOMING SSW AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KT MON AFTN. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA WED INTO WED EVENG.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING. WEST WINDS AOB 15KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AND
THEN VEER TO THE NW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO
DUE TO LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION (10-15KT RIVERS/SOUND...15-20KT
WITH GUSTS TO 25KT CHES BAY...15-25KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 30KT
COASTAL WATERS FENWICK ISLAND TO VA/NC BORDER). SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO
RISE DUE TO A W-NW DIRECTION BUT SHOULD AVERAGE 3-4FT FROM 10-20NM.
UP TO 5FT SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR 20NM FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO
CHINCOTEAGUE. SCA FLAGS HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR CHES BAY AND COASTAL
WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO THE VA/NC BORDER BEGINNING AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE WATERS ON MONDAY AND THEN SLIDES EWD OFF THE COAST
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL AGAIN GENERATE SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS MID AND LATE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTR COORD WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES / STATE AGENCIES...WILL NOT ISSUE
ANY FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS ATTM. HAVE CONTINUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE GUSTY
WINDS & RH`S 25 TO 30% ACROSS THE ERN SHORE IN THE FWF. RH`S OVER
THE PIEDMONT WILL DROP TO 20-25% BUT WITH SOMEWHAT LESS WIND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ632-
     634-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630-
     631.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...JAB
FIRE WEATHER...AKQ







000
FXUS61 KRNK 252308
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
708 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS FOR SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PASS
ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 706 PM EDT SATURDAY...

ONLY VERY MINOR CHANGES THIS EVENING MAINLY TO TWEAK FOR LATEST
OBSERVATIONS. GENERALLY CLEAR IN PIEDMONT AND WINDS BEGINNING TO
DECOUPLE WITH SUNSET...BUT EXPECT BY MIDNIGHT OR SO THAT NOCTURNAL
INVERSION WILL MIX OUT AND WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN BEHIND THE
CLIPPER SYSTEM. INCREASED GUSTS ON RIDGES A LITTLE OVERNIGHT
BASED ON FORECAST WINDS ALOFT...MAY NEED TO BUMP UP EVEN MORE.
REALLY NOT IMPRESSED WITH CHANCES FOR ANY UPSLOPE PRECIP GIVEN HOW
SHALLOW MOISTURE IS...AND ONLY NAM AND HIGH RES NMM MODEL
SUGGESTING SOMETHING WILL BE SQUEEZED OUT. EVERY OTHER MODEL
REMAINS DRY. A FEW SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE AT BEST. HOWEVER...ONLY
HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS GOING AND WHILE TWEAKED DOWN A TAD...CHANGED
FROM ISOLD SHOWERS TO SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES.

PREV DISCUSSION AS OF 248 PM EDT SATURDAY...

A DRY CLIPPER FRONT ENTERS THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. MOISTURE
WILL BE SHALLOW FOR A POSSIBLE STRAY SHOWER...BUT AT
MOST...LOOKING AT SOME DRIZZLE ALONG WESTERN SLOPES. FLOW ALOFT
WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING INTO A
RELATIVE DRY AIR MASS. CLOUDS LIKELY TO REMAIN ON WESTERN SLOPES
INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND MAY MAKE IT TO THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT.
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL NOT ALLOW ANY CLOUDS TO ADVANCE EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS TO MOVE EAST OF BLF-LWB WITH
THIS FRONT.

CONSIDERING OUR RECENT DRY SPELL AND THE PASSING OF A DRY
FRONT...FIRE WEATHER WILL BE A CONCERN SUNDAY. AS THE FRONT
PASSES...NORTHWEST CROSS BARRIER FLOW OF 40KTS WILL BRING
BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. AN INVERSION WILL KEEP MOST OF THE HIGHER WINDS ALONG
RIDGE TOPS...THEN MIX DOWN TOWARDS SUNRISE AS INVERSION LOWERS.
BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN RELAXES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL WARM INTO THE M/U 60S WEST TO L/M 70S
EAST DESPITE HAVING A FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH DRY AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT AND WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON...RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
COMBINING LOW HUMIDITIES WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL MAKE FOR
ENHANCED FIRE DANGER. ANY BURNING IS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED. A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT WILL BE POSTED FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...

SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN ABOUT OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT RESULTING
IN ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ESPCLY IN THE VALLEYS WHERE CLEAR
SKIES/LIGHT WINDS MAY AGAIN LEAD TO LOWS IN THE 30S...WITH 40S
SE...AND 45-50 ON THE RIDGES AS WARM ADVECTION ALOFT STARTS TO
RETURN.

HIGH SHIFTS SLOWLY OFFSHORE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHILE THE MEAN
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING RETURN SW FLOW AND VERY STRONG WARM ADVECTION
WITH A 5-10 DEGREE RISE IN 85H TEMPS BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. MAY SEE SOME GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...OTRW EXPECTING PLENTY OF SUN AND RESULTING MILD TEMPS
WITH A LARGE DIURNAL SWING... PER HIGHS MOSTLY 70S MONDAY...AND
70S WEST TO LOWER 80S EAST TUESDAY.

WEAK COLD FRONT TO THE WEST WILL PUSH AN AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE
AND SHRA EAST TOWARD THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN
INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWER CHANCE WEST LATE PER VARIOUS
MODEL TIMING. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AND LATEST ECMWF
SHOWING BEST CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT...SLOWED UP POPS TO MAINLY LOW
CHANCE FAR WEST LATE AND DRY ELSW. SHOULD BE MUCH MILDER AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WITH MOST LOCATIONS STAYING IN THE 50S FOR LOWS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT SATURDAY...

STRONG SOUTHEAST RIDGING THAT RESULTED IN MILD TEMPS TO START THE
WEEK WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL SIGNAL THE ONSET OF DEVELOPING UPPER TROFFINESS ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. THIS BOUNDARY PRECEDED BY A NARROW RIBBON OF SHOWERS
LOOKS TO ARRIVE IN THE WEST EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THEN GRADUALLY
MAKE ITS WAY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
LATER SOLUTIONS PENDING STRENGTH OF THE RIDGING MAY EVEN SLOW MORE
SO TRENDING LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH FROPA WHILE KEEPING THINGS MILDER
DURING THE DAY. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ALSO LIKELY TO LIMIT
SHOWERS HEADING EAST SO KEEPING HIGH CHANCE POPS WESTERN SLOPES
PER WEAK CONVERGENCE AND LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHTS SE WHERE MAY BE
LITTLE LEFT TO THE MOISTURE AS SEEN VIA THE 12Z GFS. HIGHS MAINLY
LOW/MID 70S EAST AND 60S MOUNTAINS.

LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH PUSH OUT OF THE PASSING INITIAL 5H SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO PUSH THE FRONT TO THE SE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE MORE
ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE MEAN UPPER COLD POOL ACROSS THE LAKES
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A VERY
DEEP 5H TROUGH PER A FORECAST CLOSED UPPER SYSTEM HEADING INTO NEW
ENGLAND BY SATURDAY WITH THE MAIN PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY. STILL
SOME EARLIER MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE EC WANTING TO CLOSE THIS
OFF OVER THE REGION WHILE CONSENSUS FAVORS A MORE
PROGRESSIVE/NORTHWARD SCENARIO. THIS SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE CWA
BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY THRU FRIDAY WITH MOISTURE WITH WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SE AND SHALLOW COLD POOL PRECIP TO THE NW. HOWEVER
DEEPENING NW FLOW AND PASSAGE OF THE FINAL TROUGH AXIS...LIKELY TO
SWING UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS INTO GEAR SATURDAY...WHEN WELL
BELOW 0C 85H AIR WILL ADVECT IN ON STRONG NW FLOW PERHAPS MAKING
FOR THE COOLEST DAY SEEN SO FAR THIS FALL.

THIS ALONG WITH STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST WILL CAUSE A DAILY TAPERING OF TEMPS WITH HIGHS MOSTLY 50S TO
AROUND 60 BY FRIDAY...AND PERHAPS ONLY 40S WEST TO 50S EAST
SATURDAY. EXPECT LOWS TO DIP BELOW FREEZING MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND POSSIBLY ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM EDT FRIDAY...

SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP TO 10 KNOTS AT TIMES
THIS AFTERNOON. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT AND SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER BY 12Z SUNDAY. MOISTURE IS
LIMITED OVERALL BUT SOME MVFR CIGS ACROSS LWB/BLF BETWEEN 03Z-13Z
SUN IS LIKELY. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IS LOW. EXPECT SOME GUSTY
WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT. BREEZY/GUSTY
CONDITIONS LIKELY AT ALL SITES SUNDAY...WEST TO NORTHWEST GUSTS TO
30KTS POSSIBLE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE (ROA/BCB).

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

DRY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LOWER
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSING OF THE NEXT
FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...

ON A SAFETY NOTE...RAPIDLY WARMING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL
CAUSE RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO DECREASE QUICKLY. AND SINCE IT HAS BEEN
SEVERAL DAYS SINCE OUR LAST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...FALLEN LEAVES AND
BRUSH WILL HAVE HAD TIME TO DRY OUT. AS SUCH...THE COMBINATION OF
GUSTY WINDS...LOW HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS WILL MAKE OUTDOOR BURNING
HAZARDOUS ON SUNDAY...POTENTIALLY CAUSING FIRES TO BURN OUT OF
CONTROL. BURNING IS THEREFORE STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THROUGH COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND AGRICULTURE
AGENCIES...THE GROWING SEASON FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA...SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA AND THE NORTH CAROLINA HIGHLANDS
HAS ENDED TODAY...OCT 25TH. UNTIL THE GROWING SEASON BEGINS NEXT
SPRING...THERE WILL NOT BE ANY FROST ADVISORIES OR FREEZE WARNING
ISSUE FOR THE RNK MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...RCS/SK
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...RCS
FIRE WEATHER...RCS
CLIMATE...RCS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 251926
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
326 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK INTO AND OVER THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. LITTLE IF ANY MSTR
TO WORK WITH...SCT CLOUDS AT BEST. SW WINDS SHIFT TO W THEN NW LATE.
THIS KEEPS AIRMASS MIXED PREVENTING TMPS FROM DROPPING TO FAR. LOWS
IN THE U40S-L50S...XCPT M50S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRS
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. WEAK CAA COMBINED WITH A COMPRESSED PRS
GRADIENT BEHIND FROPA RESULTS IN A WELL MIXED AIRMASS SUNDAY. XPCT
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS (15-25 WITH G30 MPH) ALONG THE COAST...
LIGHTER WINDS (10-20 MPH) WEST OF THE BAY. THE DOWNSLPOING COMPONENT
TO THE WIND ALLOWS TMPS TO REACH BTWN 70-75.

THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THEN SHIFTS
OFFSHORE TUESDAY. DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PT TO MSTLY SUNNY DAYS
AND FAIR NIGHTS. COOL SUN NIGHT. LOWS IN THE U30S-L40S...45-50 AT
THE BEACHES. H85 TMPS ARND 13C RESULTS IN HIGHS U60S-L70S MON.

RETURN FLOW SETS UP MONDAY NIGHT AND TUES RESULTING IN A WRMG TREND.
LOWS MON NIGHT IN THE U40S-M50S. H85 TMPS ARND 16C SPRT HIGHS IN THE
U70S-L80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FORECAST ESPECIALLY TOWARD NEXT
WEEKEND. INITIAL FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES OF TIMING ON THE FRONT. HAVE CHANCE POPS OF SHOWERS WITH
THIS FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH. THEN BEGINNING FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
THE MODELS DIVERGE. HAVE THE ECMWF DEVELOPING A DEEP CUTOFF LOW OVER
THE SOUTHEAST US WHILE THE GFS HAS THE CUTOFF DEVELOPING MORE TOWARD
NEW ENGLAND WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. THE ECMWF IS TOWARD THE
DEEPEST ENSEMBLE SOLUTION. HOWEVER THE OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN IS
SUCH THAT IT COULD SUPPORT THE CUTOFF OVER SOUTHEASTERN US. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH HOW FUTURE MODEL RUNS DEVELOP. EITHER WAY STARTING
ON THURSDAY COLDER AIR BEGINS TO ARRIVE AND WE HAVE THE COLDEST
AIR THIS FALL ACROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY. THIS DROPS HIGHS INTO
THE 50S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN WESTERN
SECTIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 30S. IF THE WINDS STAY
UP SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING OVER ALL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A TROF FOLLOWED BY A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THRU THE
REGION THIS EVENING/OVRNGT AND WILL BRING SCTD CLOUDS OF 7-10 KFT
TO THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 25/2100Z NW THRU 26/0600Z SE. SW OR W
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NW AND BECOME BREEZY FOR SUN MORNG INTO SUN
AFTN. GUSTS WILL AVERAGE 15-20 KT INLAND WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARND
25 KT POSSIBLE ALNG THE IMMEDIATE CST. HI PRES SETTLES OVER THE
MID ATLC REGION SUN NGT AND MON...THEN SLIDES OFF THE CST FOR MON
NGT INTO WED MORNG. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY/VFR WITH
WINDS BECOMING SSW AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KT MON AFTN. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA WED INTO WED EVENG.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING. WEST WINDS AOB 15KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AND
THEN VEER TO THE NW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO
DUE TO LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION (10-15KT RIVERS/SOUND...15-20KT
WITH GUSTS TO 25KT CHES BAY...15-25KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 30KT
COASTAL WATERS FENWICK ISLAND TO VA/NC BORDER). SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO
RISE DUE TO A W-NW DIRECTION BUT SHOULD AVERAGE 3-4FT FROM 10-20NM.
UP TO 5FT SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR 20NM FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO
CHINCOTEAGUE. SCA FLAGS HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR CHES BAY AND COASTAL
WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO THE VA/NC BORDER BEGINNING AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE WATERS ON MONDAY AND THEN SLIDES EWD OFF THE COAST
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL AGAIN GENERATE SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS MID AND LATE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTR COORD WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES / STATE AGENCIES...WILL NOT ISSUE
ANY FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS ATTM. PLAN IS TO CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE
GUSTY WINDS & RH`S ARND 30% ACROSS THE ERN SHORE IN THE FWF. RH`S OVR
THE PIEDMONT WILL DROP INTO THE M20S BUT WITH LESS WIND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ632-
     634-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630-
     631.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...JAB
FIRE WEATHER...MPR







000
FXUS61 KRNK 251858
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
258 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS FOR SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PASS
ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 248 PM EDT SATURDAY...

A DRY CLIPPER FRONT ENTERS THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. MOISTURE
WILL BE SHALLOW FOR A POSSIBLE STRAY SHOWER...BUT AT
MOST...LOOKING AT SOME DRIZZLE ALONG WESTERN SLOPES. FLOW ALOFT
WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING INTO A
RELATIVE DRY AIR MASS. CLOUDS LIKELY TO REMAIN ON WESTERN SLOPES
INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND MAY MAKE IT TO THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT.
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL NOT ALLOW ANY CLOUDS TO ADVANCE EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS TO MOVE EAST OF BLF-LWB WITH
THIS FRONT.

CONSIDERING OUR RECENT DRY SPELL AND THE PASSING OF A DRY
FRONT...FIRE WEATHER WILL BE A CONCERN SUNDAY. AS THE FRONT
PASSES...NORTHWEST CROSS BARRIER FLOW OF 40KTS WILL BRING
BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. AN INVERSION WILL KEEP MOST OF THE HIGHER WINDS ALONG
RIDGE TOPS...THEN MIX DOWN TOWARDS SUNRISE AS INVERSION LOWERS.
BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN RELAXES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL WARM INTO THE M/U 60S WEST TO L/M 70S
EAST DESPITE HAVING A FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH DRY AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT AND WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON...RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
COMBINING LOW HUMIDITIES WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL MAKE FOR
ENHANCED FIRE DANGER. ANY BURNING IS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED. A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT WILL BE POSTED FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...

SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN ABOUT OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT RESULTING
IN ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ESPCLY IN THE VALLEYS WHERE CLEAR
SKIES/LIGHT WINDS MAY AGAIN LEAD TO LOWS IN THE 30S...WITH 40S
SE...AND 45-50 ON THE RIDGES AS WARM ADVECTION ALOFT STARTS TO
RETURN.

HIGH SHIFTS SLOWLY OFFSHORE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHILE THE MEAN
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING RETURN SW FLOW AND VERY STRONG WARM ADVECTION
WITH A 5-10 DEGREE RISE IN 85H TEMPS BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. MAY SEE SOME GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...OTRW EXPECTING PLENTY OF SUN AND RESULTING MILD TEMPS
WITH A LARGE DIURNAL SWING... PER HIGHS MOSTLY 70S MONDAY...AND
70S WEST TO LOWER 80S EAST TUESDAY.

WEAK COLD FRONT TO THE WEST WILL PUSH AN AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE
AND SHRA EAST TOWARD THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN
INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWER CHANCE WEST LATE PER VARIOUS
MODEL TIMING. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AND LATEST ECMWF
SHOWING BEST CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT...SLOWED UP POPS TO MAINLY LOW
CHANCE FAR WEST LATE AND DRY ELSW. SHOULD BE MUCH MILDER AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WITH MOST LOCATIONS STAYING IN THE 50S FOR LOWS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT SATURDAY...

STRONG SOUTHEAST RIDGING THAT RESULTED IN MILD TEMPS TO START THE
WEEK WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL SIGNAL THE ONSET OF DEVELOPING UPPER TROFFINESS ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. THIS BOUNDARY PRECEDED BY A NARROW RIBBON OF SHOWERS
LOOKS TO ARRIVE IN THE WEST EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THEN GRADUALLY
MAKE ITS WAY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
LATER SOLUTIONS PENDING STRENGTH OF THE RIDGING MAY EVEN SLOW MORE
SO TRENDING LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH FROPA WHILE KEEPING THINGS MILDER
DURING THE DAY. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ALSO LIKELY TO LIMIT
SHOWERS HEADING EAST SO KEEPING HIGH CHANCE POPS WESTERN SLOPES
PER WEAK CONVERGENCE AND LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHTS SE WHERE MAY BE
LITTLE LEFT TO THE MOISTURE AS SEEN VIA THE 12Z GFS. HIGHS MAINLY
LOW/MID 70S EAST AND 60S MOUNTAINS.

LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH PUSH OUT OF THE PASSING INITIAL 5H SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO PUSH THE FRONT TO THE SE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE MORE
ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE MEAN UPPER COLD POOL ACROSS THE LAKES
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A VERY
DEEP 5H TROUGH PER A FORECAST CLOSED UPPER SYSTEM HEADING INTO NEW
ENGLAND BY SATURDAY WITH THE MAIN PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY. STILL
SOME EARLIER MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE EC WANTING TO CLOSE THIS
OFF OVER THE REGION WHILE CONSENSUS FAVORS A MORE
PROGRESSIVE/NORTHWARD SCENARIO. THIS SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE CWA
BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY THRU FRIDAY WITH MOISTURE WITH WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SE AND SHALLOW COLD POOL PRECIP TO THE NW. HOWEVER
DEEPENING NW FLOW AND PASSAGE OF THE FINAL TROUGH AXIS...LIKELY TO
SWING UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS INTO GEAR SATURDAY...WHEN WELL
BELOW 0C 85H AIR WILL ADVECT IN ON STRONG NW FLOW PERHAPS MAKING
FOR THE COOLEST DAY SEEN SO FAR THIS FALL.

THIS ALONG WITH STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST WILL CAUSE A DAILY TAPERING OF TEMPS WITH HIGHS MOSTLY 50S TO
AROUND 60 BY FRIDAY...AND PERHAPS ONLY 40S WEST TO 50S EAST
SATURDAY. EXPECT LOWS TO DIP BELOW FREEZING MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND POSSIBLY ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM EDT FRIDAY...

SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP TO 10 KNOTS AT TIMES
THIS AFTERNOON. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT AND SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER BY 12Z SUNDAY. MOISTURE IS
LIMITED OVERALL BUT SOME MVFR CIGS ACROSS LWB/BLF BETWEEN 03Z-13Z
SUN IS LIKELY. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IS LOW. EXPECT SOME GUSTY
WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT. BREEZY/GUSTY
CONDITIONS LIKELY AT ALL SITES SUNDAY...WEST TO NORTHWEST GUSTS TO
30KTS POSSIBLE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE (ROA/BCB).

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

DRY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LOWER
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSING OF THE NEXT
FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...

ON A SAFETY NOTE...RAPIDLY WARMING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL
CAUSE RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO DECREASE QUICKLY. AND SINCE IT HAS BEEN
SEVERAL DAYS SINCE OUR LAST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...FALLEN LEAVES AND
BRUSH WILL HAVE HAD TIME TO DRY OUT. AS SUCH...THE COMBINATION OF
GUSTY WINDS...LOW HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS WILL MAKE OUTDOOR BURNING
HAZARDOUS ON SUNDAY...POTENTIALLY CAUSING FIRES TO BURN OUT OF
CONTROL. BURNING IS THEREFORE STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THROUGH COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND AGRICULTURE
AGENCIES...THE GROWING SEASON FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA...SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA AND THE NORTH CAROLINA HIGHLANDS
HAS ENDED TODAY...OCT 25TH. UNTIL THE GROWING SEASON BEGINS NEXT
SPRING...THERE WILL NOT BE ANY FROST ADVISORIES OR FREEZE WARNING
ISSUE FOR THE RNK MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...RCS
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...RCS
FIRE WEATHER...RCS
CLIMATE...RCS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 251858
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
258 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS FOR SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PASS
ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 248 PM EDT SATURDAY...

A DRY CLIPPER FRONT ENTERS THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. MOISTURE
WILL BE SHALLOW FOR A POSSIBLE STRAY SHOWER...BUT AT
MOST...LOOKING AT SOME DRIZZLE ALONG WESTERN SLOPES. FLOW ALOFT
WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING INTO A
RELATIVE DRY AIR MASS. CLOUDS LIKELY TO REMAIN ON WESTERN SLOPES
INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND MAY MAKE IT TO THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT.
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL NOT ALLOW ANY CLOUDS TO ADVANCE EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS TO MOVE EAST OF BLF-LWB WITH
THIS FRONT.

CONSIDERING OUR RECENT DRY SPELL AND THE PASSING OF A DRY
FRONT...FIRE WEATHER WILL BE A CONCERN SUNDAY. AS THE FRONT
PASSES...NORTHWEST CROSS BARRIER FLOW OF 40KTS WILL BRING
BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. AN INVERSION WILL KEEP MOST OF THE HIGHER WINDS ALONG
RIDGE TOPS...THEN MIX DOWN TOWARDS SUNRISE AS INVERSION LOWERS.
BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN RELAXES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL WARM INTO THE M/U 60S WEST TO L/M 70S
EAST DESPITE HAVING A FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH DRY AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT AND WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON...RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
COMBINING LOW HUMIDITIES WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL MAKE FOR
ENHANCED FIRE DANGER. ANY BURNING IS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED. A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT WILL BE POSTED FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...

SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN ABOUT OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT RESULTING
IN ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ESPCLY IN THE VALLEYS WHERE CLEAR
SKIES/LIGHT WINDS MAY AGAIN LEAD TO LOWS IN THE 30S...WITH 40S
SE...AND 45-50 ON THE RIDGES AS WARM ADVECTION ALOFT STARTS TO
RETURN.

HIGH SHIFTS SLOWLY OFFSHORE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHILE THE MEAN
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING RETURN SW FLOW AND VERY STRONG WARM ADVECTION
WITH A 5-10 DEGREE RISE IN 85H TEMPS BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. MAY SEE SOME GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...OTRW EXPECTING PLENTY OF SUN AND RESULTING MILD TEMPS
WITH A LARGE DIURNAL SWING... PER HIGHS MOSTLY 70S MONDAY...AND
70S WEST TO LOWER 80S EAST TUESDAY.

WEAK COLD FRONT TO THE WEST WILL PUSH AN AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE
AND SHRA EAST TOWARD THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN
INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWER CHANCE WEST LATE PER VARIOUS
MODEL TIMING. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AND LATEST ECMWF
SHOWING BEST CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT...SLOWED UP POPS TO MAINLY LOW
CHANCE FAR WEST LATE AND DRY ELSW. SHOULD BE MUCH MILDER AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WITH MOST LOCATIONS STAYING IN THE 50S FOR LOWS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT SATURDAY...

STRONG SOUTHEAST RIDGING THAT RESULTED IN MILD TEMPS TO START THE
WEEK WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL SIGNAL THE ONSET OF DEVELOPING UPPER TROFFINESS ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. THIS BOUNDARY PRECEDED BY A NARROW RIBBON OF SHOWERS
LOOKS TO ARRIVE IN THE WEST EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THEN GRADUALLY
MAKE ITS WAY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
LATER SOLUTIONS PENDING STRENGTH OF THE RIDGING MAY EVEN SLOW MORE
SO TRENDING LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH FROPA WHILE KEEPING THINGS MILDER
DURING THE DAY. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ALSO LIKELY TO LIMIT
SHOWERS HEADING EAST SO KEEPING HIGH CHANCE POPS WESTERN SLOPES
PER WEAK CONVERGENCE AND LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHTS SE WHERE MAY BE
LITTLE LEFT TO THE MOISTURE AS SEEN VIA THE 12Z GFS. HIGHS MAINLY
LOW/MID 70S EAST AND 60S MOUNTAINS.

LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH PUSH OUT OF THE PASSING INITIAL 5H SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO PUSH THE FRONT TO THE SE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE MORE
ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE MEAN UPPER COLD POOL ACROSS THE LAKES
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A VERY
DEEP 5H TROUGH PER A FORECAST CLOSED UPPER SYSTEM HEADING INTO NEW
ENGLAND BY SATURDAY WITH THE MAIN PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY. STILL
SOME EARLIER MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE EC WANTING TO CLOSE THIS
OFF OVER THE REGION WHILE CONSENSUS FAVORS A MORE
PROGRESSIVE/NORTHWARD SCENARIO. THIS SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE CWA
BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY THRU FRIDAY WITH MOISTURE WITH WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SE AND SHALLOW COLD POOL PRECIP TO THE NW. HOWEVER
DEEPENING NW FLOW AND PASSAGE OF THE FINAL TROUGH AXIS...LIKELY TO
SWING UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS INTO GEAR SATURDAY...WHEN WELL
BELOW 0C 85H AIR WILL ADVECT IN ON STRONG NW FLOW PERHAPS MAKING
FOR THE COOLEST DAY SEEN SO FAR THIS FALL.

THIS ALONG WITH STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST WILL CAUSE A DAILY TAPERING OF TEMPS WITH HIGHS MOSTLY 50S TO
AROUND 60 BY FRIDAY...AND PERHAPS ONLY 40S WEST TO 50S EAST
SATURDAY. EXPECT LOWS TO DIP BELOW FREEZING MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND POSSIBLY ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM EDT FRIDAY...

SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP TO 10 KNOTS AT TIMES
THIS AFTERNOON. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT AND SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER BY 12Z SUNDAY. MOISTURE IS
LIMITED OVERALL BUT SOME MVFR CIGS ACROSS LWB/BLF BETWEEN 03Z-13Z
SUN IS LIKELY. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IS LOW. EXPECT SOME GUSTY
WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT. BREEZY/GUSTY
CONDITIONS LIKELY AT ALL SITES SUNDAY...WEST TO NORTHWEST GUSTS TO
30KTS POSSIBLE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE (ROA/BCB).

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

DRY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LOWER
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSING OF THE NEXT
FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...

ON A SAFETY NOTE...RAPIDLY WARMING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL
CAUSE RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO DECREASE QUICKLY. AND SINCE IT HAS BEEN
SEVERAL DAYS SINCE OUR LAST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...FALLEN LEAVES AND
BRUSH WILL HAVE HAD TIME TO DRY OUT. AS SUCH...THE COMBINATION OF
GUSTY WINDS...LOW HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS WILL MAKE OUTDOOR BURNING
HAZARDOUS ON SUNDAY...POTENTIALLY CAUSING FIRES TO BURN OUT OF
CONTROL. BURNING IS THEREFORE STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THROUGH COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND AGRICULTURE
AGENCIES...THE GROWING SEASON FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA...SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA AND THE NORTH CAROLINA HIGHLANDS
HAS ENDED TODAY...OCT 25TH. UNTIL THE GROWING SEASON BEGINS NEXT
SPRING...THERE WILL NOT BE ANY FROST ADVISORIES OR FREEZE WARNING
ISSUE FOR THE RNK MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...RCS
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...RCS
FIRE WEATHER...RCS
CLIMATE...RCS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 251847
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
247 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY. A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST TUESDAY AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON
LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. DISSIPATING CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
APPROACHING THE ALLEGHENY FRONT IN RESPONSE TO A UPPER LEVEL JET
MOVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN US. A SURGE OF W-NW WINDS AGANIST THE
MTNS MAY LEAD TO A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT LATE TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...THESE CLOUDS MAY REACH THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS BEFORE
DISSIPATING THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC HAS LED TO SW
WINDS USHERING IN HIGHER DEWPTS THAN FRIDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
HAS INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON AND SW WINDS HAVE INCRASED TO
15-20MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30MPH. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING BUT A LIGHT BREEZE WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT. THE
STRONG JET ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DRIVE THE NEXT
CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE REGION TONIGHT. MOST OF
THE UPWARD LIFT AND MOISTURE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY NORTH OF THE
MID- ATLANTIC AND A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS BY SUNDAY MORNING.

THE COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE MID-WEST WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO
BACK TO THE NW AGAIN AND USHER IN DRIER CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY.
DEWPTS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S IN THE VA HIGHLANDS TO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MAKING FOR A DRY DAY. NW WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10-20MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE SPREAD OF
WILDFIRES. PLEASE SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW. ANY CLOUDS IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD STAY
TO THE NORTH SUNDAY LEADING TO A SUNNY DAY WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
MID 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT AND
WILL PUSH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OFF THE EAST COAST. WINDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE BY MONDAY MORNING. CALM AND CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
MID 30S NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. PATCHY FROST IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS WERE TEMPERATURES MAY REACH
FREEZING. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST MONDAY AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL USHER IN WARMER CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BE THE TREND FOR
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE MID-WEST. MOISTURE IS LAGGING WITH ONLY LIGHT WAA ALOFT.
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG SHORTWAVE/PVA CROSSING GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF CWA.
ADDITIONAL WEAKER SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE EASTWARD IN ECMWF 500MB
LONGWAVE TROUGH AND AFFECT THE CWA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER
STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE DOWN TROUGH AND REACH THE EASTERN GULF
STATES BEFORE STALLING AT WEEKS END.

COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL CROSS THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO CWA FRIDAY WHILE A LOW
DEVELOPES OVER GEORGE IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE. PATTERN
INDICATES THAT PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT AFFECT THE
CWA UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD AND AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTROLS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. SW WINDS WILL BECOME W-NW
OVERNIGHT AS A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE TERMINALS. W-NW WINDS
15-20KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS EXPECTED. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY
SUNSET ON SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. A PRESSURE
SURGE HAS MOVED INTO THE NRN MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY AND GUSTS OF
20KTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. A SCA IS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND WINDS
WILL BECOME W-NW. SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC AND MD BAY SOUTH OF DRUM PT LATE TONIGHT.
A SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA AND EXPANDS FOR ALL THE WATERS
SUNDAY. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 28KTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE WATERS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. A PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY
NIGHT AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY MONDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP DURING THIS
TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT AND
GUSTY WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND IT. W-NE WINDS
10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30MPH AND DEWPTS ARE FCST TO DROP INTO
THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY
CONDITIONS WITH RH VALUES AROUND 25-35% BY SUN AFTERNOON. LOW FUEL
MOISTURES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ESPECIALLY IN THE BLUE RIDGE REGION
OF VA. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS...LOW RH AND LOW FUEL
MOISTURES WILL LEAD TO THE ENHANCED THREAT OF WILDFIRES SUNDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DUE TO THE WESTERLY WINDS BECOMING SWLY BY AFTERNOON...CBOFS HAS
TIDAL ANOMALIES INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON. THE FCST IS FOR
ANNAPOLIS TO REACH MINOR FLOOD EARLY THIS EVENING BUT ANOMALIES
WOULD NEED TO REACH 0.8 FEET. AT THIS TIME ANOMALIES ARE AROUND A
HALF FOOT. ANOMALIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE THAT QUICKLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND THERFORE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ530>533-539>541.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ535-
     536-538-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...HAS
MARINE...HAS
FIRE WEATHER...HAS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HAS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 251847
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
247 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY. A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST TUESDAY AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON
LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. DISSIPATING CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
APPROACHING THE ALLEGHENY FRONT IN RESPONSE TO A UPPER LEVEL JET
MOVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN US. A SURGE OF W-NW WINDS AGANIST THE
MTNS MAY LEAD TO A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT LATE TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...THESE CLOUDS MAY REACH THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS BEFORE
DISSIPATING THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC HAS LED TO SW
WINDS USHERING IN HIGHER DEWPTS THAN FRIDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
HAS INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON AND SW WINDS HAVE INCRASED TO
15-20MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30MPH. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING BUT A LIGHT BREEZE WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT. THE
STRONG JET ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DRIVE THE NEXT
CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE REGION TONIGHT. MOST OF
THE UPWARD LIFT AND MOISTURE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY NORTH OF THE
MID- ATLANTIC AND A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS BY SUNDAY MORNING.

THE COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE MID-WEST WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO
BACK TO THE NW AGAIN AND USHER IN DRIER CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY.
DEWPTS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S IN THE VA HIGHLANDS TO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MAKING FOR A DRY DAY. NW WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10-20MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE SPREAD OF
WILDFIRES. PLEASE SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW. ANY CLOUDS IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD STAY
TO THE NORTH SUNDAY LEADING TO A SUNNY DAY WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
MID 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT AND
WILL PUSH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OFF THE EAST COAST. WINDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE BY MONDAY MORNING. CALM AND CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
MID 30S NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. PATCHY FROST IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS WERE TEMPERATURES MAY REACH
FREEZING. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST MONDAY AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL USHER IN WARMER CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BE THE TREND FOR
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE MID-WEST. MOISTURE IS LAGGING WITH ONLY LIGHT WAA ALOFT.
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG SHORTWAVE/PVA CROSSING GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF CWA.
ADDITIONAL WEAKER SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE EASTWARD IN ECMWF 500MB
LONGWAVE TROUGH AND AFFECT THE CWA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER
STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE DOWN TROUGH AND REACH THE EASTERN GULF
STATES BEFORE STALLING AT WEEKS END.

COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL CROSS THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO CWA FRIDAY WHILE A LOW
DEVELOPES OVER GEORGE IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE. PATTERN
INDICATES THAT PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT AFFECT THE
CWA UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD AND AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTROLS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. SW WINDS WILL BECOME W-NW
OVERNIGHT AS A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE TERMINALS. W-NW WINDS
15-20KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS EXPECTED. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY
SUNSET ON SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. A PRESSURE
SURGE HAS MOVED INTO THE NRN MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY AND GUSTS OF
20KTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. A SCA IS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND WINDS
WILL BECOME W-NW. SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC AND MD BAY SOUTH OF DRUM PT LATE TONIGHT.
A SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA AND EXPANDS FOR ALL THE WATERS
SUNDAY. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 28KTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE WATERS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. A PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY
NIGHT AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY MONDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP DURING THIS
TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT AND
GUSTY WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND IT. W-NE WINDS
10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30MPH AND DEWPTS ARE FCST TO DROP INTO
THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY
CONDITIONS WITH RH VALUES AROUND 25-35% BY SUN AFTERNOON. LOW FUEL
MOISTURES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ESPECIALLY IN THE BLUE RIDGE REGION
OF VA. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS...LOW RH AND LOW FUEL
MOISTURES WILL LEAD TO THE ENHANCED THREAT OF WILDFIRES SUNDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DUE TO THE WESTERLY WINDS BECOMING SWLY BY AFTERNOON...CBOFS HAS
TIDAL ANOMALIES INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON. THE FCST IS FOR
ANNAPOLIS TO REACH MINOR FLOOD EARLY THIS EVENING BUT ANOMALIES
WOULD NEED TO REACH 0.8 FEET. AT THIS TIME ANOMALIES ARE AROUND A
HALF FOOT. ANOMALIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE THAT QUICKLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND THERFORE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>532-538>540.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ530>533-539>541.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ535-
     536-538-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...HAS
MARINE...HAS
FIRE WEATHER...HAS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HAS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 251847
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
247 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY. A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST TUESDAY AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON
LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. DISSIPATING CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
APPROACHING THE ALLEGHENY FRONT IN RESPONSE TO A UPPER LEVEL JET
MOVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN US. A SURGE OF W-NW WINDS AGANIST THE
MTNS MAY LEAD TO A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT LATE TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...THESE CLOUDS MAY REACH THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS BEFORE
DISSIPATING THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC HAS LED TO SW
WINDS USHERING IN HIGHER DEWPTS THAN FRIDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
HAS INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON AND SW WINDS HAVE INCRASED TO
15-20MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30MPH. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING BUT A LIGHT BREEZE WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT. THE
STRONG JET ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DRIVE THE NEXT
CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE REGION TONIGHT. MOST OF
THE UPWARD LIFT AND MOISTURE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY NORTH OF THE
MID- ATLANTIC AND A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS BY SUNDAY MORNING.

THE COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE MID-WEST WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO
BACK TO THE NW AGAIN AND USHER IN DRIER CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY.
DEWPTS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S IN THE VA HIGHLANDS TO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MAKING FOR A DRY DAY. NW WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10-20MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE SPREAD OF
WILDFIRES. PLEASE SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW. ANY CLOUDS IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD STAY
TO THE NORTH SUNDAY LEADING TO A SUNNY DAY WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
MID 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT AND
WILL PUSH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OFF THE EAST COAST. WINDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE BY MONDAY MORNING. CALM AND CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
MID 30S NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. PATCHY FROST IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS WERE TEMPERATURES MAY REACH
FREEZING. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST MONDAY AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL USHER IN WARMER CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BE THE TREND FOR
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE MID-WEST. MOISTURE IS LAGGING WITH ONLY LIGHT WAA ALOFT.
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG SHORTWAVE/PVA CROSSING GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF CWA.
ADDITIONAL WEAKER SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE EASTWARD IN ECMWF 500MB
LONGWAVE TROUGH AND AFFECT THE CWA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER
STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE DOWN TROUGH AND REACH THE EASTERN GULF
STATES BEFORE STALLING AT WEEKS END.

COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL CROSS THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO CWA FRIDAY WHILE A LOW
DEVELOPES OVER GEORGE IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE. PATTERN
INDICATES THAT PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT AFFECT THE
CWA UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD AND AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTROLS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. SW WINDS WILL BECOME W-NW
OVERNIGHT AS A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE TERMINALS. W-NW WINDS
15-20KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS EXPECTED. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY
SUNSET ON SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. A PRESSURE
SURGE HAS MOVED INTO THE NRN MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY AND GUSTS OF
20KTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. A SCA IS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND WINDS
WILL BECOME W-NW. SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC AND MD BAY SOUTH OF DRUM PT LATE TONIGHT.
A SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA AND EXPANDS FOR ALL THE WATERS
SUNDAY. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 28KTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE WATERS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. A PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY
NIGHT AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY MONDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP DURING THIS
TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT AND
GUSTY WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND IT. W-NE WINDS
10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30MPH AND DEWPTS ARE FCST TO DROP INTO
THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY
CONDITIONS WITH RH VALUES AROUND 25-35% BY SUN AFTERNOON. LOW FUEL
MOISTURES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ESPECIALLY IN THE BLUE RIDGE REGION
OF VA. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS...LOW RH AND LOW FUEL
MOISTURES WILL LEAD TO THE ENHANCED THREAT OF WILDFIRES SUNDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DUE TO THE WESTERLY WINDS BECOMING SWLY BY AFTERNOON...CBOFS HAS
TIDAL ANOMALIES INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON. THE FCST IS FOR
ANNAPOLIS TO REACH MINOR FLOOD EARLY THIS EVENING BUT ANOMALIES
WOULD NEED TO REACH 0.8 FEET. AT THIS TIME ANOMALIES ARE AROUND A
HALF FOOT. ANOMALIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE THAT QUICKLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND THERFORE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>532-538>540.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ530>533-539>541.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ535-
     536-538-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...HAS
MARINE...HAS
FIRE WEATHER...HAS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HAS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 251847
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
247 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY. A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST TUESDAY AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON
LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. DISSIPATING CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
APPROACHING THE ALLEGHENY FRONT IN RESPONSE TO A UPPER LEVEL JET
MOVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN US. A SURGE OF W-NW WINDS AGANIST THE
MTNS MAY LEAD TO A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT LATE TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...THESE CLOUDS MAY REACH THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS BEFORE
DISSIPATING THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC HAS LED TO SW
WINDS USHERING IN HIGHER DEWPTS THAN FRIDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
HAS INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON AND SW WINDS HAVE INCRASED TO
15-20MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30MPH. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING BUT A LIGHT BREEZE WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT. THE
STRONG JET ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DRIVE THE NEXT
CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE REGION TONIGHT. MOST OF
THE UPWARD LIFT AND MOISTURE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY NORTH OF THE
MID- ATLANTIC AND A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS BY SUNDAY MORNING.

THE COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE MID-WEST WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO
BACK TO THE NW AGAIN AND USHER IN DRIER CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY.
DEWPTS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S IN THE VA HIGHLANDS TO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MAKING FOR A DRY DAY. NW WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10-20MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE SPREAD OF
WILDFIRES. PLEASE SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW. ANY CLOUDS IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD STAY
TO THE NORTH SUNDAY LEADING TO A SUNNY DAY WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
MID 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT AND
WILL PUSH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OFF THE EAST COAST. WINDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE BY MONDAY MORNING. CALM AND CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
MID 30S NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. PATCHY FROST IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS WERE TEMPERATURES MAY REACH
FREEZING. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST MONDAY AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL USHER IN WARMER CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BE THE TREND FOR
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE MID-WEST. MOISTURE IS LAGGING WITH ONLY LIGHT WAA ALOFT.
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG SHORTWAVE/PVA CROSSING GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF CWA.
ADDITIONAL WEAKER SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE EASTWARD IN ECMWF 500MB
LONGWAVE TROUGH AND AFFECT THE CWA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER
STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE DOWN TROUGH AND REACH THE EASTERN GULF
STATES BEFORE STALLING AT WEEKS END.

COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL CROSS THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO CWA FRIDAY WHILE A LOW
DEVELOPES OVER GEORGE IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE. PATTERN
INDICATES THAT PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT AFFECT THE
CWA UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD AND AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTROLS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. SW WINDS WILL BECOME W-NW
OVERNIGHT AS A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE TERMINALS. W-NW WINDS
15-20KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS EXPECTED. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY
SUNSET ON SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. A PRESSURE
SURGE HAS MOVED INTO THE NRN MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY AND GUSTS OF
20KTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. A SCA IS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND WINDS
WILL BECOME W-NW. SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC AND MD BAY SOUTH OF DRUM PT LATE TONIGHT.
A SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA AND EXPANDS FOR ALL THE WATERS
SUNDAY. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 28KTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE WATERS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. A PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY
NIGHT AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY MONDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP DURING THIS
TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT AND
GUSTY WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND IT. W-NE WINDS
10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30MPH AND DEWPTS ARE FCST TO DROP INTO
THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY
CONDITIONS WITH RH VALUES AROUND 25-35% BY SUN AFTERNOON. LOW FUEL
MOISTURES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ESPECIALLY IN THE BLUE RIDGE REGION
OF VA. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS...LOW RH AND LOW FUEL
MOISTURES WILL LEAD TO THE ENHANCED THREAT OF WILDFIRES SUNDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DUE TO THE WESTERLY WINDS BECOMING SWLY BY AFTERNOON...CBOFS HAS
TIDAL ANOMALIES INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON. THE FCST IS FOR
ANNAPOLIS TO REACH MINOR FLOOD EARLY THIS EVENING BUT ANOMALIES
WOULD NEED TO REACH 0.8 FEET. AT THIS TIME ANOMALIES ARE AROUND A
HALF FOOT. ANOMALIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE THAT QUICKLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND THERFORE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ530>533-539>541.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ535-
     536-538-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...HAS
MARINE...HAS
FIRE WEATHER...HAS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HAS








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 251746
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
146 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE COAST TODAY...AHEAD OF A DRY COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES 1020+MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WEST-CENTRAL GULF COAST/TN VALLEY. TO THE NORTH, A QUICK MOVING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS ONTARIO/NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC COOL FRONT NOW EXTENDING SW
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY.

A PLEASANT FALL AFTN ON THE WAY TODAY AS SFC HIGH PRES NUDGES INTO
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE A DRY VERTICAL COLUMN ALONG
WITH A W-NW DOWNSLOPING FLOW. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE TODAY WITH SEASONABLY MILD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S.

DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING, WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME SCT CLOUDS WITH THE FROPA.
BREEZY AND A BIT MILDER TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY MID TO UPPER
40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SE CANADA WILL DROP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND EARLY
SUNDAY, BEFORE PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO ATLANTIC CANADA BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST FROM
THE OHIO/TN VLY...SHUNTING SFC FRONT SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS
SUNDAY AFTN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. EXPECT AMPLE SUNSHINE
EACH DAY. DOWNSLOPE WIND WILL HELP TO BOOST HIGHS BETWEEN 70-75 BOTH
DAYS. LOWS SUN NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 40S EXCEPT U30S WRN MOST AREAS TO
L50S SERN BEACH AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ON TUESDAY AFTER LOWS MAINLY
IN THE 50S EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

ONE ADDITIONAL NOTE...WELL MIXED ATM AND COMPRESSED PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A BREEZY DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS ALONG WITH RH
FALLING <30% WILL RESULT IN CONDITIONS THAT APPROACH CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS. SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MILD/WARM TO START IN EXTENDED THEN TRENDING COOLER BY THE END. HI
PRES SFC-ALOFT RMNS INVOF SE AND MDATLC CSTS MON NGT THROUGH TUE
BEFORE SHIFTING E ALLOWING BROAD TROUGH (ALOFT) TO SETTLE FM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE ERN STATES. CDFNT WILL APPROACH FM THE WNW
WED...THEN PUSH ACRS THE FA WED NGT INTO THU AFTN. W/ THE FNT...XPCG
PDS OF CLDNS AND (RIGHT NOW) A LO CHC POP (FOR SHRAS). AHEAD OF THE
FNT...MILD/WARM SWLY FLO AND SKC-PCLDY...THEN VRB CLDS FM LT WED
INTO FRI AS AIR TURNS COOLER (ON RETURN OF NNW WNDS).

HI TEMPS TUE RANGING THROUGH THE 70S (MAYBE L80S OVR INTERIOR
SECTIONS)...THEN L/M70S WED...AND MNLY IN THE 60S THU/FRI. LO TEMPS
IN THE 50S IN THE L/M50S MON NGT...M/U50S TUE NGT...L/M50S WED
NGT...THEN M40S TO L50S THU NGT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A TROF FOLLOWED BY A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THRU THE
REGION THIS EVENING/OVRNGT AND WILL BRING SCTD CLOUDS OF 7-10 KFT
TO THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 25/2100Z NW THRU 26/0600Z SE. SW OR W
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NW AND BECOME BREEZY FOR SUN MORNG INTO SUN
AFTN. GUSTS WILL AVERAGE 15-20 KT INLAND WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARND
25 KT POSSIBLE ALNG THE IMMEDIATE CST. HI PRES SETTLES OVER THE
MID ATLC REGION SUN NGT AND MON...THEN SLIDES OFF THE CST FOR MON
NGT INTO WED MORNG. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY/VFR WITH
WINDS BECOMING SSW AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KT MON AFTN. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA WED INTO WED EVENG.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRIEF DIURNAL SURGE IN NW-N WINDS (10-15KT) IS OCCURRING AS OF 4AM
AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 7-8AM THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE FALLS APART AS IT CROSSES THE WATERS
TODAY. NW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BACK TO THE WEST BY THIS AFTN WITH
SPEEDS AOB 15KT ALL WATERS. SEAS/WAVES WILL AVERAGE 2-4FT/2-3FT
RESPECTIVELY. A WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...
FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING. WEST WINDS AOB 15KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AND
THEN VEER TO THE NW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO
DUE TO LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION (10-15KT RIVERS/SOUND...15-20KT
WITH GUSTS TO 25KT CHES BAY...15-25KT WITH GUSTS TO 30KT COASTAL
WATERS FENWICK ISLAND TO VA/NC BORDER). SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO RISE
DUE TO A W-NW DIRECTION BUT SHOULD AVERAGE 3-4FT FROM 10-20NM. UP TO
5FT SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR 20NM FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO
CHINCOTEAGUE. SCA FLAGS HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR CHES BAY AND COASTAL
WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO THE VA/NC BORDER BEGINNING AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH SUNDAY. PLEASE REFER TO
MWWAKQ FOR EXACT TIMING. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS ON
MONDAY AND THEN SLIDES EWD OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL BE HIGHLIGHTING DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.
MIXED LAYER DP TMPS PROGGED INTO THE L-M30S BY 18Z SUNDAY WILL
YIELD RH VALUES ~30%. THIS IN TANDEM WITH GUSTY NW WINDS BTWN
15-25 MPH AND DRY FUELS AFTER DRY FROPA. IF PRESENT FORECAST
THINKING VERIFIES, AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT MAY BE
NEEDED IF THE 10 HR FUEL MOISTURES DROP BELOW 10%.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ632-
     634-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630-
     631.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...ALB
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...BMD
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 251746
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
146 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE COAST TODAY...AHEAD OF A DRY COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES 1020+MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WEST-CENTRAL GULF COAST/TN VALLEY. TO THE NORTH, A QUICK MOVING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS ONTARIO/NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC COOL FRONT NOW EXTENDING SW
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY.

A PLEASANT FALL AFTN ON THE WAY TODAY AS SFC HIGH PRES NUDGES INTO
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE A DRY VERTICAL COLUMN ALONG
WITH A W-NW DOWNSLOPING FLOW. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE TODAY WITH SEASONABLY MILD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S.

DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING, WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME SCT CLOUDS WITH THE FROPA.
BREEZY AND A BIT MILDER TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY MID TO UPPER
40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SE CANADA WILL DROP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND EARLY
SUNDAY, BEFORE PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO ATLANTIC CANADA BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST FROM
THE OHIO/TN VLY...SHUNTING SFC FRONT SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS
SUNDAY AFTN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. EXPECT AMPLE SUNSHINE
EACH DAY. DOWNSLOPE WIND WILL HELP TO BOOST HIGHS BETWEEN 70-75 BOTH
DAYS. LOWS SUN NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 40S EXCEPT U30S WRN MOST AREAS TO
L50S SERN BEACH AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ON TUESDAY AFTER LOWS MAINLY
IN THE 50S EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

ONE ADDITIONAL NOTE...WELL MIXED ATM AND COMPRESSED PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A BREEZY DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS ALONG WITH RH
FALLING <30% WILL RESULT IN CONDITIONS THAT APPROACH CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS. SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MILD/WARM TO START IN EXTENDED THEN TRENDING COOLER BY THE END. HI
PRES SFC-ALOFT RMNS INVOF SE AND MDATLC CSTS MON NGT THROUGH TUE
BEFORE SHIFTING E ALLOWING BROAD TROUGH (ALOFT) TO SETTLE FM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE ERN STATES. CDFNT WILL APPROACH FM THE WNW
WED...THEN PUSH ACRS THE FA WED NGT INTO THU AFTN. W/ THE FNT...XPCG
PDS OF CLDNS AND (RIGHT NOW) A LO CHC POP (FOR SHRAS). AHEAD OF THE
FNT...MILD/WARM SWLY FLO AND SKC-PCLDY...THEN VRB CLDS FM LT WED
INTO FRI AS AIR TURNS COOLER (ON RETURN OF NNW WNDS).

HI TEMPS TUE RANGING THROUGH THE 70S (MAYBE L80S OVR INTERIOR
SECTIONS)...THEN L/M70S WED...AND MNLY IN THE 60S THU/FRI. LO TEMPS
IN THE 50S IN THE L/M50S MON NGT...M/U50S TUE NGT...L/M50S WED
NGT...THEN M40S TO L50S THU NGT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A TROF FOLLOWED BY A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THRU THE
REGION THIS EVENING/OVRNGT AND WILL BRING SCTD CLOUDS OF 7-10 KFT
TO THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 25/2100Z NW THRU 26/0600Z SE. SW OR W
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NW AND BECOME BREEZY FOR SUN MORNG INTO SUN
AFTN. GUSTS WILL AVERAGE 15-20 KT INLAND WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARND
25 KT POSSIBLE ALNG THE IMMEDIATE CST. HI PRES SETTLES OVER THE
MID ATLC REGION SUN NGT AND MON...THEN SLIDES OFF THE CST FOR MON
NGT INTO WED MORNG. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY/VFR WITH
WINDS BECOMING SSW AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KT MON AFTN. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA WED INTO WED EVENG.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRIEF DIURNAL SURGE IN NW-N WINDS (10-15KT) IS OCCURRING AS OF 4AM
AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 7-8AM THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE FALLS APART AS IT CROSSES THE WATERS
TODAY. NW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BACK TO THE WEST BY THIS AFTN WITH
SPEEDS AOB 15KT ALL WATERS. SEAS/WAVES WILL AVERAGE 2-4FT/2-3FT
RESPECTIVELY. A WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...
FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING. WEST WINDS AOB 15KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AND
THEN VEER TO THE NW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO
DUE TO LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION (10-15KT RIVERS/SOUND...15-20KT
WITH GUSTS TO 25KT CHES BAY...15-25KT WITH GUSTS TO 30KT COASTAL
WATERS FENWICK ISLAND TO VA/NC BORDER). SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO RISE
DUE TO A W-NW DIRECTION BUT SHOULD AVERAGE 3-4FT FROM 10-20NM. UP TO
5FT SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR 20NM FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO
CHINCOTEAGUE. SCA FLAGS HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR CHES BAY AND COASTAL
WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO THE VA/NC BORDER BEGINNING AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH SUNDAY. PLEASE REFER TO
MWWAKQ FOR EXACT TIMING. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS ON
MONDAY AND THEN SLIDES EWD OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL BE HIGHLIGHTING DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.
MIXED LAYER DP TMPS PROGGED INTO THE L-M30S BY 18Z SUNDAY WILL
YIELD RH VALUES ~30%. THIS IN TANDEM WITH GUSTY NW WINDS BTWN
15-25 MPH AND DRY FUELS AFTER DRY FROPA. IF PRESENT FORECAST
THINKING VERIFIES, AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT MAY BE
NEEDED IF THE 10 HR FUEL MOISTURES DROP BELOW 10%.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ632-
     634-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630-
     631.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...ALB
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...BMD
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KRNK 251713
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
113 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS FOR SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PASS
ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
WILL ARRIVE BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1248 PM EDT SATURDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS THROUGH THE DAY AS A DRY CLIPPER FRONT
ENTERS THE OHIO VALLEY. HEIGHTS INCREASING ALOFT WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE...MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE WEST TO LOW TO MID 70S IN THE
EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

AS OF 255 AM EDT SATURDAY...

CHILLY LATE OCTOBER MORNING WITH PATCHY FROST A GOOD BET IN THE
MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS A FEW PIEDMONT AREAS. HOWEVER...NO CHANGES TO
THE FROST ADVISORY. TODAY WILL BE THE FINAL DAY FOR THE MOUNTAINS
FOR FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS AS THE GROWING SEASON OFFICIALLY ENDS.

SHOULD SEE A MILD DAY AHEAD OF A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT TRACKING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE WEST AT
10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH AT TIMES BY MID AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S MOUNTAINS TO LOWER TO MID 70S EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE.

THE FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS BY LATE TONIGHT WITH NW FLOW ALOFT.
MODELS SHOWING INCREASE IN LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE BUT AIRMASS IS
VERY DRY ATTM. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS TONIGHT FROM THE
GREENBRIER MOUNTAINS SOUTH INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS. OTHER THAN THAT
EXPECT MORE CLOUDS IN THE WEST OVERNIGHT TO CLEAR/PC EAST. WINDS
WILL STAY UP RESULTING IN MILDER LOWS...FROM THE MID 40S
MOUNTAINS...TO UPPER 40S...LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...

WILL START SUNDAY MORNING ON THE GUSTY SIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO OUR REGION IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT PASSED DURING THE
NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING LATE
MORNING...WITH 25 TO 35 MPH GUSTS LIKELY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...
MORESO NORTH OF HIGHWAY 460. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE CORE OF STRONGEST WINDS SHIFTS EAST...AND HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO SETTLE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT...BELIEVE THE COMBINATION
OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE PLAINS...AND WARMING
DOWNSLOPE WINDFLOW WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES MILD...WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE
MID 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE.


THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...
REACHING THE CAROLINA COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY. WITH THE
DEPARTURE OF THE HIGH...WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY ALONG THE
APPALACHIAN CHAIN...BRINGING WARMER AIR NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF. AS
SUCH...EXPECT TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO BE SIMILAR TO
THOSE MORE TYPICAL OF SEPTEMBER. MOST LOCATIONS WILL WARM INTO THE
70S ON MONDAY...AND EXPECT TO SEE LOW 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT ON
TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

EXPECT CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING. SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AS OUR NEXT COLD FRONT ENTERS
FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EDT SATURDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF CROSSING THE FORECAST REGION
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS WERE KEPT MAINLY ALONG
AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT COULD SLOW
DOWN WHILE CROSSING THE CWA...BUT THE QPF IS NOT IMPRESSIVE...
ALTHOUGH THE GFS SHOWS HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN THE ECMWF.

THE 25/00Z ECMWF AND GFS FORECAST MODELS AREA SIMILAR IN THE TIMING
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY...AND AGREE THAT THE FRONT WILL
STALL SOUTH OF OUR AREA DURING THURSDAY. THE DIURNAL RANGE OF
TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WAS KEPT SMALLER AND IN
CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE...AS CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS SHOULD LIMIT THE SPREAD BETWEEN HIGHS AND LOWS.

THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY BY FRIDAY. THE ECMWF
DEPICTS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE GFS PORTRAYS A SLOWER SOLUTION WITH A FLATTER
TROUGH. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WHICH COULD BE MOST NOTABLE ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES...HAVE BEEN MENTIONED FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM EDT FRIDAY...

SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP TO 10 KNOTS AT TIMES
THIS AFTERNOON. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT AND SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER BY 12Z SUNDAY. MOISTURE IS
LIMITED OVERALL BUT SOME MVFR CIGS ACROSS LWB/BLF BETWEEN 03Z-13Z
SUN IS LIKELY. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IS LOW. EXPECT SOME GUSTY
WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT. BREEZY/GUSTY
CONDITIONS LIKELY AT ALL SITES SUNDAY...WEST TO NORTHWEST GUSTS TO
30KTS POSSIBLE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE (ROA/BCB).

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

DRY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LOWER
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSING OF THE NEXT
FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...

ON A SAFETY NOTE...RAPIDLY WARMING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL
CAUSE RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO DECREASE QUICKLY. AND SINCE IT HAS BEEN
SEVERAL DAYS SINCE OUR LAST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...FALLEN LEAVES AND
BRUSH WILL HAVE HAD TIME TO DRY OUT. AS SUCH...THE COMBINATION OF
GUSTY WINDS...LOW HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS WILL MAKE OUTDOOR BURNING
HAZARDOUS ON SUNDAY...POTENTIALLY CAUSING FIRES TO BURN OUT OF
CONTROL. BURNING IS THEREFORE STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...RCS/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF/PW
AVIATION...RCS
FIRE WEATHER...NF




000
FXUS61 KRNK 251713
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
113 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS FOR SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PASS
ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
WILL ARRIVE BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1248 PM EDT SATURDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS THROUGH THE DAY AS A DRY CLIPPER FRONT
ENTERS THE OHIO VALLEY. HEIGHTS INCREASING ALOFT WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE...MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE WEST TO LOW TO MID 70S IN THE
EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

AS OF 255 AM EDT SATURDAY...

CHILLY LATE OCTOBER MORNING WITH PATCHY FROST A GOOD BET IN THE
MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS A FEW PIEDMONT AREAS. HOWEVER...NO CHANGES TO
THE FROST ADVISORY. TODAY WILL BE THE FINAL DAY FOR THE MOUNTAINS
FOR FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS AS THE GROWING SEASON OFFICIALLY ENDS.

SHOULD SEE A MILD DAY AHEAD OF A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT TRACKING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE WEST AT
10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH AT TIMES BY MID AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S MOUNTAINS TO LOWER TO MID 70S EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE.

THE FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS BY LATE TONIGHT WITH NW FLOW ALOFT.
MODELS SHOWING INCREASE IN LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE BUT AIRMASS IS
VERY DRY ATTM. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS TONIGHT FROM THE
GREENBRIER MOUNTAINS SOUTH INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS. OTHER THAN THAT
EXPECT MORE CLOUDS IN THE WEST OVERNIGHT TO CLEAR/PC EAST. WINDS
WILL STAY UP RESULTING IN MILDER LOWS...FROM THE MID 40S
MOUNTAINS...TO UPPER 40S...LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...

WILL START SUNDAY MORNING ON THE GUSTY SIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO OUR REGION IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT PASSED DURING THE
NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING LATE
MORNING...WITH 25 TO 35 MPH GUSTS LIKELY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...
MORESO NORTH OF HIGHWAY 460. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE CORE OF STRONGEST WINDS SHIFTS EAST...AND HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO SETTLE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT...BELIEVE THE COMBINATION
OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE PLAINS...AND WARMING
DOWNSLOPE WINDFLOW WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES MILD...WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE
MID 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE.


THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...
REACHING THE CAROLINA COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY. WITH THE
DEPARTURE OF THE HIGH...WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY ALONG THE
APPALACHIAN CHAIN...BRINGING WARMER AIR NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF. AS
SUCH...EXPECT TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO BE SIMILAR TO
THOSE MORE TYPICAL OF SEPTEMBER. MOST LOCATIONS WILL WARM INTO THE
70S ON MONDAY...AND EXPECT TO SEE LOW 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT ON
TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

EXPECT CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING. SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AS OUR NEXT COLD FRONT ENTERS
FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EDT SATURDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF CROSSING THE FORECAST REGION
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS WERE KEPT MAINLY ALONG
AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT COULD SLOW
DOWN WHILE CROSSING THE CWA...BUT THE QPF IS NOT IMPRESSIVE...
ALTHOUGH THE GFS SHOWS HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN THE ECMWF.

THE 25/00Z ECMWF AND GFS FORECAST MODELS AREA SIMILAR IN THE TIMING
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY...AND AGREE THAT THE FRONT WILL
STALL SOUTH OF OUR AREA DURING THURSDAY. THE DIURNAL RANGE OF
TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WAS KEPT SMALLER AND IN
CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE...AS CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS SHOULD LIMIT THE SPREAD BETWEEN HIGHS AND LOWS.

THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY BY FRIDAY. THE ECMWF
DEPICTS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE GFS PORTRAYS A SLOWER SOLUTION WITH A FLATTER
TROUGH. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WHICH COULD BE MOST NOTABLE ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES...HAVE BEEN MENTIONED FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM EDT FRIDAY...

SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP TO 10 KNOTS AT TIMES
THIS AFTERNOON. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT AND SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER BY 12Z SUNDAY. MOISTURE IS
LIMITED OVERALL BUT SOME MVFR CIGS ACROSS LWB/BLF BETWEEN 03Z-13Z
SUN IS LIKELY. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IS LOW. EXPECT SOME GUSTY
WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT. BREEZY/GUSTY
CONDITIONS LIKELY AT ALL SITES SUNDAY...WEST TO NORTHWEST GUSTS TO
30KTS POSSIBLE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE (ROA/BCB).

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

DRY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LOWER
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSING OF THE NEXT
FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...

ON A SAFETY NOTE...RAPIDLY WARMING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL
CAUSE RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO DECREASE QUICKLY. AND SINCE IT HAS BEEN
SEVERAL DAYS SINCE OUR LAST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...FALLEN LEAVES AND
BRUSH WILL HAVE HAD TIME TO DRY OUT. AS SUCH...THE COMBINATION OF
GUSTY WINDS...LOW HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS WILL MAKE OUTDOOR BURNING
HAZARDOUS ON SUNDAY...POTENTIALLY CAUSING FIRES TO BURN OUT OF
CONTROL. BURNING IS THEREFORE STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...RCS/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF/PW
AVIATION...RCS
FIRE WEATHER...NF




000
FXUS61 KRNK 251649
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1249 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS FOR SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PASS
ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
WILL ARRIVE BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1248 PM EDT SATURDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS THROUGH THE DAY AS A DRY CLIPPER FRONT
ENTERS THE OHIO VALLEY. HEIGHTS INCREASING ALOFT WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE...MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE WEST TO LOW TO MID 70S IN THE
EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

AS OF 255 AM EDT SATURDAY...

CHILLY LATE OCTOBER MORNING WITH PATCHY FROST A GOOD BET IN THE
MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS A FEW PIEDMONT AREAS. HOWEVER...NO CHANGES TO
THE FROST ADVISORY. TODAY WILL BE THE FINAL DAY FOR THE MOUNTAINS
FOR FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS AS THE GROWING SEASON OFFICIALLY ENDS.

SHOULD SEE A MILD DAY AHEAD OF A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT TRACKING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE WEST AT
10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH AT TIMES BY MID AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S MOUNTAINS TO LOWER TO MID 70S EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE.

THE FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS BY LATE TONIGHT WITH NW FLOW ALOFT.
MODELS SHOWING INCREASE IN LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE BUT AIRMASS IS
VERY DRY ATTM. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS TONIGHT FROM THE
GREENBRIER MOUNTAINS SOUTH INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS. OTHER THAN THAT
EXPECT MORE CLOUDS IN THE WEST OVERNIGHT TO CLEAR/PC EAST. WINDS
WILL STAY UP RESULTING IN MILDER LOWS...FROM THE MID 40S
MOUNTAINS...TO UPPER 40S...LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...

WILL START SUNDAY MORNING ON THE GUSTY SIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO OUR REGION IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT PASSED DURING THE
NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING LATE
MORNING...WITH 25 TO 35 MPH GUSTS LIKELY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...
MORESO NORTH OF HIGHWAY 460. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE CORE OF STRONGEST WINDS SHIFTS EAST...AND HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO SETTLE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT...BELIEVE THE COMBINATION
OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE PLAINS...AND WARMING
DOWNSLOPE WINDFLOW WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES MILD...WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE
MID 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE.


THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...
REACHING THE CAROLINA COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY. WITH THE
DEPARTURE OF THE HIGH...WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY ALONG THE
APPALACHIAN CHAIN...BRINGING WARMER AIR NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF. AS
SUCH...EXPECT TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO BE SIMILAR TO
THOSE MORE TYPICAL OF SEPTEMBER. MOST LOCATIONS WILL WARM INTO THE
70S ON MONDAY...AND EXPECT TO SEE LOW 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT ON
TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

EXPECT CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING. SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AS OUR NEXT COLD FRONT ENTERS
FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EDT SATURDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF CROSSING THE FORECAST REGION
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS WERE KEPT MAINLY ALONG
AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT COULD SLOW
DOWN WHILE CROSSING THE CWA...BUT THE QPF IS NOT IMPRESSIVE...
ALTHOUGH THE GFS SHOWS HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN THE ECMWF.

THE 25/00Z ECMWF AND GFS FORECAST MODELS AREA SIMILAR IN THE TIMING
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY...AND AGREE THAT THE FRONT WILL
STALL SOUTH OF OUR AREA DURING THURSDAY. THE DIURNAL RANGE OF
TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WAS KEPT SMALLER AND IN
CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE...AS CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS SHOULD LIMIT THE SPREAD BETWEEN HIGHS AND LOWS.

THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY BY FRIDAY. THE ECMWF
DEPICTS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE GFS PORTRAYS A SLOWER SOLUTION WITH A FLATTER
TROUGH. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WHICH COULD BE MOST NOTABLE ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES...HAVE BEEN MENTIONED FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT FRIDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG AT LWB WILL BE VFR
BY 1330Z.

WEST TO NW WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP TO 10 KNOTS AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT
AND SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER BY 12Z SUNDAY. MOISTURE IS LIMITED
OVERALL BUT SOME MVFR CIGS ACROSS LWB/BLF AFTER MIDNIGHT IS
FEASIBLE. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IS LOW. EXPECT SOME GUSTY WINDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

BREEZY AND DRY WITH VFR WILL OCCUR SUNDAY. GUSTS OVER 30 KNOTS
POSSIBLE AT BCB/ROA.

DRY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LOWER
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSING OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...

ON A SAFETY NOTE...RAPIDLY WARMING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL
CAUSE RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO DECREASE QUICKLY. AND SINCE IT HAS BEEN
SEVERAL DAYS SINCE OUR LAST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...FALLEN LEAVES AND
BRUSH WILL HAVE HAD TIME TO DRY OUT. AS SUCH...THE COMBINATION OF
GUSTY WINDS...LOW HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS WILL MAKE OUTDOOR BURNING
HAZARDOUS ON SUNDAY...POTENTIALLY CAUSING FIRES TO BURN OUT OF
CONTROL. BURNING IS THEREFORE STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...RCS/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF/PW
AVIATION...RCS
FIRE WEATHER...NF




000
FXUS61 KRNK 251649
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1249 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS FOR SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PASS
ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
WILL ARRIVE BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1248 PM EDT SATURDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS THROUGH THE DAY AS A DRY CLIPPER FRONT
ENTERS THE OHIO VALLEY. HEIGHTS INCREASING ALOFT WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE...MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE WEST TO LOW TO MID 70S IN THE
EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

AS OF 255 AM EDT SATURDAY...

CHILLY LATE OCTOBER MORNING WITH PATCHY FROST A GOOD BET IN THE
MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS A FEW PIEDMONT AREAS. HOWEVER...NO CHANGES TO
THE FROST ADVISORY. TODAY WILL BE THE FINAL DAY FOR THE MOUNTAINS
FOR FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS AS THE GROWING SEASON OFFICIALLY ENDS.

SHOULD SEE A MILD DAY AHEAD OF A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT TRACKING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE WEST AT
10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH AT TIMES BY MID AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S MOUNTAINS TO LOWER TO MID 70S EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE.

THE FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS BY LATE TONIGHT WITH NW FLOW ALOFT.
MODELS SHOWING INCREASE IN LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE BUT AIRMASS IS
VERY DRY ATTM. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS TONIGHT FROM THE
GREENBRIER MOUNTAINS SOUTH INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS. OTHER THAN THAT
EXPECT MORE CLOUDS IN THE WEST OVERNIGHT TO CLEAR/PC EAST. WINDS
WILL STAY UP RESULTING IN MILDER LOWS...FROM THE MID 40S
MOUNTAINS...TO UPPER 40S...LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...

WILL START SUNDAY MORNING ON THE GUSTY SIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO OUR REGION IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT PASSED DURING THE
NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING LATE
MORNING...WITH 25 TO 35 MPH GUSTS LIKELY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...
MORESO NORTH OF HIGHWAY 460. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE CORE OF STRONGEST WINDS SHIFTS EAST...AND HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO SETTLE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT...BELIEVE THE COMBINATION
OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE PLAINS...AND WARMING
DOWNSLOPE WINDFLOW WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES MILD...WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE
MID 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE.


THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...
REACHING THE CAROLINA COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY. WITH THE
DEPARTURE OF THE HIGH...WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY ALONG THE
APPALACHIAN CHAIN...BRINGING WARMER AIR NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF. AS
SUCH...EXPECT TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO BE SIMILAR TO
THOSE MORE TYPICAL OF SEPTEMBER. MOST LOCATIONS WILL WARM INTO THE
70S ON MONDAY...AND EXPECT TO SEE LOW 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT ON
TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

EXPECT CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING. SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AS OUR NEXT COLD FRONT ENTERS
FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EDT SATURDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF CROSSING THE FORECAST REGION
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS WERE KEPT MAINLY ALONG
AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT COULD SLOW
DOWN WHILE CROSSING THE CWA...BUT THE QPF IS NOT IMPRESSIVE...
ALTHOUGH THE GFS SHOWS HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN THE ECMWF.

THE 25/00Z ECMWF AND GFS FORECAST MODELS AREA SIMILAR IN THE TIMING
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY...AND AGREE THAT THE FRONT WILL
STALL SOUTH OF OUR AREA DURING THURSDAY. THE DIURNAL RANGE OF
TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WAS KEPT SMALLER AND IN
CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE...AS CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS SHOULD LIMIT THE SPREAD BETWEEN HIGHS AND LOWS.

THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY BY FRIDAY. THE ECMWF
DEPICTS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE GFS PORTRAYS A SLOWER SOLUTION WITH A FLATTER
TROUGH. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WHICH COULD BE MOST NOTABLE ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES...HAVE BEEN MENTIONED FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT FRIDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG AT LWB WILL BE VFR
BY 1330Z.

WEST TO NW WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP TO 10 KNOTS AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT
AND SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER BY 12Z SUNDAY. MOISTURE IS LIMITED
OVERALL BUT SOME MVFR CIGS ACROSS LWB/BLF AFTER MIDNIGHT IS
FEASIBLE. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IS LOW. EXPECT SOME GUSTY WINDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

BREEZY AND DRY WITH VFR WILL OCCUR SUNDAY. GUSTS OVER 30 KNOTS
POSSIBLE AT BCB/ROA.

DRY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LOWER
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSING OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...

ON A SAFETY NOTE...RAPIDLY WARMING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL
CAUSE RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO DECREASE QUICKLY. AND SINCE IT HAS BEEN
SEVERAL DAYS SINCE OUR LAST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...FALLEN LEAVES AND
BRUSH WILL HAVE HAD TIME TO DRY OUT. AS SUCH...THE COMBINATION OF
GUSTY WINDS...LOW HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS WILL MAKE OUTDOOR BURNING
HAZARDOUS ON SUNDAY...POTENTIALLY CAUSING FIRES TO BURN OUT OF
CONTROL. BURNING IS THEREFORE STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...RCS/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF/PW
AVIATION...RCS
FIRE WEATHER...NF




000
FXUS61 KLWX 251339
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
939 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY. A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST TUESDAY AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS NOSED INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS MORNING AND
CALM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY BY AFTERNOON AND USHER IN HIGHER DEWPTS.
TEMPS WILL REBOUND AFTER A CHILLY MORNING AND REACH THE UPPER 60S
TO NEAR 70 NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION...
LATER THIS EVE...THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BE ON THE
NW DOORSTEP...SLIDING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. A HANDFUL OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE UPON
REACHING THE SPINE OF THE APLCNS W/ LITTLE MORE THAN SOME LEFTOVER
MID CLOUDS TO MAKE IT PAST THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE MODERATE OVERNIGHT...AS DEWPOINTS ONLY DROP INTO THE M-U40S SO
TEMPS WILL STAY IN THE U40S/L50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE DRY COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY...THE
RELATIVELY MOIST AIR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SWEPT OFF TO THE
EAST AND REPLACED BY NOTICEABLY COLDER/DRIER AIR. SOLID NW WINDS
WILL BE THE REASON...AS THE DEEP UPPER PARENT LOW DRIFTS ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AND OFF THE COAST...THE SUBSIDENCE REGION BEHIND IT WILL
SWEEP THE AVERAGE CONDITIONS AND REPLACE IT W/ A DRY AND WINDY DAY.
DESPITE THESE CONDITIONS...SFC TEMPS WILL STILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE
U60S AND A FEW L70S. NW WINDS AROUND 20MPH AND LOW RH`S MAY LEAD
TO FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BEING MET SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT...CAUSING WINDS TO
DIMINISH. LIGHT WINDS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PROVIDE A GOOD SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THEREFORE...MIN
TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY...ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS AND RURAL AREAS. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN
PORTIONS OF THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY...EASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA...NORTHERN MARYLAND AND THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SUBURBS
OF WASHINGTON/BALTIMORE...TO THE MID 40S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON
AND BALTIMORE. FROST IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION MONDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE
COAST BY LATE IN THE DAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP...ALLOWING FOR MILDER CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND TO THE MIDDLE 70S IN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE HIGH MONDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR MILDER CONDITIONS COMPARED TO SUNDAY NIGHT.
MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER 40S ACROSS SHELTERED
VALLEYS AND RURAL AREAS TO THE MIDDLE 50S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON
AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY...BUT IT WILL
REMAIN TO OUR WEST AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
USHER IN UNUSUALLY WARM CONDITIONS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MAX
TEMPS WILL APPROACH 80 DEGREES ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA TUESDAY
NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND THERE MAY
EVEN BE A FEW SHOWERS LATE ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...BUT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT SINCE
LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FOR LATE IN THE WEEK...BRINGING A RETURN OF
MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDS THRU THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD. QUIET HIGH PRES TODAY W/ JUST
A FEW PASSING CLOUDS AND A LIGHT SW WIND THIS AFTN. WINDS AGAIN
BECOME THE CONCERN SUNDAY...AS SFC AND LOW LEVEL WINDS REACH THE
15-25KT RANGE RANGE - LOCALLY HIGHER. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER-IN
THIS NEW WINDY DAY EARLY SUN...W/ GUSTS CONTAINING UNTIL LATER THIS
EVE.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO LIGHT W-SW WINDS 5-10KT THIS AFTN. A
QUICK- MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE THE PRECURSOR TO ANOTHER WINDY
DAY ON SUNDAY. A SCA UP FOR ALL THE WATERS STARTING JUST A COUPLE
OF HRS AFT SUNRISE AND LASTING THRU THE EVE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP DURING THIS
TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DUE TO THE WESTERLY WINDS BECOMING SWLY BY AFTERNOON...CBOFS HAS
TIDAL ANOMALIES INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON. THE FCST IS FOR
ANNAPOLIS TO REACH MINOR FLOOD EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL NOT ACT ON
THIS RIGHT NOW SINCE THE WESTERLY COMPONENT SHOULD KEEP ANOMALIES
FROM RISING QUICKLY. AT THIS TIME ANOMALIES ARE AROUND A HALF FOOT
AT ANNAPOLIS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...HAS/GMS
SHORT TERM...BJL/GMS
LONG TERM...BJL/GMS
AVIATION...BJL/GMS
MARINE...BJL/GMS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HAS








000
FXUS61 KRNK 251322
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
922 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS FOR SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PASS
ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
WILL ARRIVE BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 855 AM EDT SATURDAY...

UPDATE FOR EXPIRING FROST ADVISORY AND HOURLY GRIDS.

AS OF 255 AM EDT SATURDAY...

CHILLY LATE OCTOBER MORNING WITH PATCHY FROST A GOOD BET IN THE
MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS A FEW PIEDMONT AREAS. HOWEVER...NO CHANGES TO
THE FROST ADVISORY. TODAY WILL BE THE FINAL DAY FOR THE MOUNTAINS
FOR FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS AS THE GROWING SEASON OFFICIALLY ENDS.

SHOULD SEE A MILD DAY AHEAD OF A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT TRACKING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE WEST AT
10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH AT TIMES BY MID AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S MOUNTAINS TO LOWER TO MID 70S EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE.

THE FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS BY LATE TONIGHT WITH NW FLOW ALOFT.
MODELS SHOWING INCREASE IN LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE BUT AIRMASS IS
VERY DRY ATTM. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS TONIGHT FROM THE
GREENBRIER MOUNTAINS SOUTH INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS. OTHER THAN THAT
EXPECT MORE CLOUDS IN THE WEST OVERNIGHT TO CLEAR/PC EAST. WINDS
WILL STAY UP RESULTING IN MILDER LOWS...FROM THE MID 40S
MOUNTAINS...TO UPPER 40S...LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...

WILL START SUNDAY MORNING ON THE GUSTY SIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO OUR REGION IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT PASSED DURING THE
NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING LATE
MORNING...WITH 25 TO 35 MPH GUSTS LIKELY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...
MORESO NORTH OF HIGHWAY 460. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE CORE OF STRONGEST WINDS SHIFTS EAST...AND HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO SETTLE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT...BELIEVE THE COMBINATION
OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE PLAINS...AND WARMING
DOWNSLOPE WINDFLOW WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES MILD...WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE
MID 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE.


THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...
REACHING THE CAROLINA COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY. WITH THE
DEPARTURE OF THE HIGH...WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY ALONG THE
APPALACHIAN CHAIN...BRINGING WARMER AIR NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF. AS
SUCH...EXPECT TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO BE SIMILAR TO
THOSE MORE TYPICAL OF SEPTEMBER. MOST LOCATIONS WILL WARM INTO THE
70S ON MONDAY...AND EXPECT TO SEE LOW 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT ON
TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

EXPECT CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING. SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AS OUR NEXT COLD FRONT ENTERS
FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EDT SATURDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF CROSSING THE FORECAST REGION
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS WERE KEPT MAINLY ALONG
AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT COULD SLOW
DOWN WHILE CROSSING THE CWA...BUT THE QPF IS NOT IMPRESSIVE...
ALTHOUGH THE GFS SHOWS HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN THE ECMWF.

THE 25/00Z ECMWF AND GFS FORECAST MODELS AREA SIMILAR IN THE TIMING
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY...AND AGREE THAT THE FRONT WILL
STALL SOUTH OF OUR AREA DURING THURSDAY. THE DIURNAL RANGE OF
TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WAS KEPT SMALLER AND IN
CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE...AS CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS SHOULD LIMIT THE SPREAD BETWEEN HIGHS AND LOWS.

THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY BY FRIDAY. THE ECMWF
DEPICTS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE GFS PORTRAYS A SLOWER SOLUTION WITH A FLATTER
TROUGH. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WHICH COULD BE MOST NOTABLE ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES...HAVE BEEN MENTIONED FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT FRIDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG AT LWB WILL BE VFR
BY 1330Z.

WEST TO NW WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP TO 10 KNOTS AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT
AND SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER BY 12Z SUNDAY. MOISTURE IS LIMITED
OVERALL BUT SOME MVFR CIGS ACROSS LWB/BLF AFTER MIDNIGHT IS
FEASIBLE. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IS LOW. EXPECT SOME GUSTY WINDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

BREEZY AND DRY WITH VFR WILL OCCUR SUNDAY. GUSTS OVER 30 KNOTS
POSSIBLE AT BCB/ROA.

DRY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LOWER
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSING OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...

ON A SAFETY NOTE...RAPIDLY WARMING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL
CAUSE RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO DECREASE QUICKLY. AND SINCE IT HAS BEEN
SEVERAL DAYS SINCE OUR LAST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...FALLEN LEAVES AND
BRUSH WILL HAVE HAD TIME TO DRY OUT. AS SUCH...THE COMBINATION OF
GUSTY WINDS...LOW HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS WILL MAKE OUTDOOR BURNING
HAZARDOUS ON SUNDAY...POTENTIALLY CAUSING FIRES TO BURN OUT OF
CONTROL. BURNING IS THEREFORE STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF/PW
AVIATION...DS/RCS/WP
FIRE WEATHER...NF




000
FXUS61 KRNK 251138
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
738 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS FOR SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PASS
ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
WILL ARRIVE BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM EDT SATURDAY...

CHILLY LATE OCTOBER MORNING WITH PATCHY FROST A GOOD BET IN THE
MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS A FEW PIEDMONT AREAS. HOWEVER...NO CHANGES TO
THE FROST ADVISORY. TODAY WILL BE THE FINAL DAY FOR THE MOUNTAINS
FOR FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS AS THE GROWING SEASON OFFICIALLY ENDS.

SHOULD SEE A MILD DAY AHEAD OF A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT TRACKING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE WEST AT
10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH AT TIMES BY MID AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S MOUNTAINS TO LOWER TO MID 70S EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE.

THE FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS BY LATE TONIGHT WITH NW FLOW ALOFT.
MODELS SHOWING INCREASE IN LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE BUT AIRMASS IS
VERY DRY ATTM. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS TONIGHT FROM THE
GREENBRIER MOUNTAINS SOUTH INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS. OTHER THAN THAT
EXPECT MORE CLOUDS IN THE WEST OVERNIGHT TO CLEAR/PC EAST. WINDS
WILL STAY UP RESULTING IN MILDER LOWS...FROM THE MID 40S
MOUNTAINS...TO UPPER 40S...LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...

WILL START SUNDAY MORNING ON THE GUSTY SIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO OUR REGION IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT PASSED DURING THE
NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING LATE
MORNING...WITH 25 TO 35 MPH GUSTS LIKELY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...
MORESO NORTH OF HIGHWAY 460. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE CORE OF STRONGEST WINDS SHIFTS EAST...AND HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO SETTLE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT...BELIEVE THE COMBINATION
OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE PLAINS...AND WARMING
DOWNSLOPE WINDFLOW WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES MILD...WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE
MID 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE.


THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...
REACHING THE CAROLINA COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY. WITH THE
DEPARTURE OF THE HIGH...WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY ALONG THE
APPALACHIAN CHAIN...BRINGING WARMER AIR NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF. AS
SUCH...EXPECT TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO BE SIMILAR TO
THOSE MORE TYPICAL OF SEPTEMBER. MOST LOCATIONS WILL WARM INTO THE
70S ON MONDAY...AND EXPECT TO SEE LOW 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT ON
TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

EXPECT CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING. SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AS OUR NEXT COLD FRONT ENTERS
FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EDT SATURDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF CROSSING THE FORECAST REGION
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS WERE KEPT MAINLY ALONG
AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT COULD SLOW
DOWN WHILE CROSSING THE CWA...BUT THE QPF IS NOT IMPRESSIVE...
ALTHOUGH THE GFS SHOWS HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN THE ECMWF.

THE 25/00Z ECMWF AND GFS FORECAST MODELS AREA SIMILAR IN THE TIMING
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY...AND AGREE THAT THE FRONT WILL
STALL SOUTH OF OUR AREA DURING THURSDAY. THE DIURNAL RANGE OF
TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WAS KEPT SMALLER AND IN
CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE...AS CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS SHOULD LIMIT THE SPREAD BETWEEN HIGHS AND LOWS.

THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY BY FRIDAY. THE ECMWF
DEPICTS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE GFS PORTRAYS A SLOWER SOLUTION WITH A FLATTER
TROUGH. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WHICH COULD BE MOST NOTABLE ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES...HAVE BEEN MENTIONED FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT FRIDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG AT LWB WILL BE VFR
BY 1330Z.

WEST TO NW WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP TO 10 KNOTS AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT
AND SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER BY 12Z SUNDAY. MOISTURE IS LIMITED
OVERALL BUT SOME MVFR CIGS ACROSS LWB/BLF AFTER MIDNIGHT IS
FEASIBLE. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IS LOW. EXPECT SOME GUSTY WINDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

BREEZY AND DRY WITH VFR WILL OCCUR SUNDAY. GUSTS OVER 30 KNOTS
POSSIBLE AT BCB/ROA.

DRY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LOWER
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSING OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...

ON A SAFETY NOTE...RAPIDLY WARMING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL
CAUSE RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO DECREASE QUICKLY. AND SINCE IT HAS BEEN
SEVERAL DAYS SINCE OUR LAST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...FALLEN LEAVES AND
BRUSH WILL HAVE HAD TIME TO DRY OUT. AS SUCH...THE COMBINATION OF
GUSTY WINDS...LOW HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS WILL MAKE OUTDOOR BURNING
HAZARDOUS ON SUNDAY...POTENTIALLY CAUSING FIRES TO BURN OUT OF
CONTROL. BURNING IS THEREFORE STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ011>017.
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ044-507.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF/PW
AVIATION...DS/RCS/WP
FIRE WEATHER...NF




000
FXUS61 KRNK 251138
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
738 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS FOR SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PASS
ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
WILL ARRIVE BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM EDT SATURDAY...

CHILLY LATE OCTOBER MORNING WITH PATCHY FROST A GOOD BET IN THE
MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS A FEW PIEDMONT AREAS. HOWEVER...NO CHANGES TO
THE FROST ADVISORY. TODAY WILL BE THE FINAL DAY FOR THE MOUNTAINS
FOR FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS AS THE GROWING SEASON OFFICIALLY ENDS.

SHOULD SEE A MILD DAY AHEAD OF A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT TRACKING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE WEST AT
10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH AT TIMES BY MID AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S MOUNTAINS TO LOWER TO MID 70S EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE.

THE FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS BY LATE TONIGHT WITH NW FLOW ALOFT.
MODELS SHOWING INCREASE IN LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE BUT AIRMASS IS
VERY DRY ATTM. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS TONIGHT FROM THE
GREENBRIER MOUNTAINS SOUTH INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS. OTHER THAN THAT
EXPECT MORE CLOUDS IN THE WEST OVERNIGHT TO CLEAR/PC EAST. WINDS
WILL STAY UP RESULTING IN MILDER LOWS...FROM THE MID 40S
MOUNTAINS...TO UPPER 40S...LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...

WILL START SUNDAY MORNING ON THE GUSTY SIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO OUR REGION IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT PASSED DURING THE
NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING LATE
MORNING...WITH 25 TO 35 MPH GUSTS LIKELY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...
MORESO NORTH OF HIGHWAY 460. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE CORE OF STRONGEST WINDS SHIFTS EAST...AND HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO SETTLE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT...BELIEVE THE COMBINATION
OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE PLAINS...AND WARMING
DOWNSLOPE WINDFLOW WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES MILD...WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE
MID 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE.


THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...
REACHING THE CAROLINA COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY. WITH THE
DEPARTURE OF THE HIGH...WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY ALONG THE
APPALACHIAN CHAIN...BRINGING WARMER AIR NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF. AS
SUCH...EXPECT TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO BE SIMILAR TO
THOSE MORE TYPICAL OF SEPTEMBER. MOST LOCATIONS WILL WARM INTO THE
70S ON MONDAY...AND EXPECT TO SEE LOW 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT ON
TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

EXPECT CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING. SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AS OUR NEXT COLD FRONT ENTERS
FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EDT SATURDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF CROSSING THE FORECAST REGION
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS WERE KEPT MAINLY ALONG
AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT COULD SLOW
DOWN WHILE CROSSING THE CWA...BUT THE QPF IS NOT IMPRESSIVE...
ALTHOUGH THE GFS SHOWS HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN THE ECMWF.

THE 25/00Z ECMWF AND GFS FORECAST MODELS AREA SIMILAR IN THE TIMING
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY...AND AGREE THAT THE FRONT WILL
STALL SOUTH OF OUR AREA DURING THURSDAY. THE DIURNAL RANGE OF
TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WAS KEPT SMALLER AND IN
CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE...AS CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS SHOULD LIMIT THE SPREAD BETWEEN HIGHS AND LOWS.

THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY BY FRIDAY. THE ECMWF
DEPICTS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE GFS PORTRAYS A SLOWER SOLUTION WITH A FLATTER
TROUGH. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WHICH COULD BE MOST NOTABLE ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES...HAVE BEEN MENTIONED FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT FRIDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG AT LWB WILL BE VFR
BY 1330Z.

WEST TO NW WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP TO 10 KNOTS AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT
AND SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER BY 12Z SUNDAY. MOISTURE IS LIMITED
OVERALL BUT SOME MVFR CIGS ACROSS LWB/BLF AFTER MIDNIGHT IS
FEASIBLE. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IS LOW. EXPECT SOME GUSTY WINDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

BREEZY AND DRY WITH VFR WILL OCCUR SUNDAY. GUSTS OVER 30 KNOTS
POSSIBLE AT BCB/ROA.

DRY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LOWER
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSING OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...

ON A SAFETY NOTE...RAPIDLY WARMING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL
CAUSE RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO DECREASE QUICKLY. AND SINCE IT HAS BEEN
SEVERAL DAYS SINCE OUR LAST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...FALLEN LEAVES AND
BRUSH WILL HAVE HAD TIME TO DRY OUT. AS SUCH...THE COMBINATION OF
GUSTY WINDS...LOW HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS WILL MAKE OUTDOOR BURNING
HAZARDOUS ON SUNDAY...POTENTIALLY CAUSING FIRES TO BURN OUT OF
CONTROL. BURNING IS THEREFORE STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ011>017.
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ044-507.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF/PW
AVIATION...DS/RCS/WP
FIRE WEATHER...NF




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 251059
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
659 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE COAST TODAY...AHEAD OF A DRY COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES 1020+MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WEST-CENTRAL GULF COAST/TN VALLEY. TO THE NORTH, A QUICK MOVING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS ONTARIO/NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC COOL FRONT NOW EXTENDING SW
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY.

A PLEASANT FALL AFTN ON THE WAY TODAY AS SFC HIGH PRES NUDGES INTO
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE A DRY VERTICAL COLUMN ALONG
WITH A W-NW DOWNSLOPING FLOW. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE TODAY WITH SEASONABLY MILD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S.

DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING, WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME SCT CLOUDS WITH THE FROPA.
BREEZY AND A BIT MILDER TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY MID TO UPPER
40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SE CANADA WILL DROP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND EARLY
SUNDAY, BEFORE PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO ATLANTIC CANADA BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST FROM
THE OHIO/TN VLY...SHUNTING SFC FRONT SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS
SUNDAY AFTN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. EXPECT AMPLE SUNSHINE
EACH DAY. DOWNSLOPE WIND WILL HELP TO BOOST HIGHS BETWEEN 70-75 BOTH
DAYS. LOWS SUN NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 40S EXCEPT U30S WRN MOST AREAS TO
L50S SERN BEACH AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ON TUESDAY AFTER LOWS MAINLY
IN THE 50S EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

ONE ADDITIONAL NOTE...WELL MIXED ATM AND COMPRESSED PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A BREEZY DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS ALONG WITH RH
FALLING <30% WILL RESULT IN CONDITIONS THAT APPROACH CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS. SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MILD/WARM TO START IN EXTENDED THEN TRENDING COOLER BY THE END. HI
PRES SFC-ALOFT RMNS INVOF SE AND MDATLC CSTS MON NGT THROUGH TUE
BEFORE SHIFTING E ALLOWING BROAD TROUGH (ALOFT) TO SETTLE FM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE ERN STATES. CDFNT WILL APPROACH FM THE WNW
WED...THEN PUSH ACRS THE FA WED NGT INTO THU AFTN. W/ THE FNT...XPCG
PDS OF CLDNS AND (RIGHT NOW) A LO CHC POP (FOR SHRAS). AHEAD OF THE
FNT...MILD/WARM SWLY FLO AND SKC-PCLDY...THEN VRB CLDS FM LT WED
INTO FRI AS AIR TURNS COOLER (ON RETURN OF NNW WNDS).

HI TEMPS TUE RANGING THROUGH THE 70S (MAYBE L80S OVR INTERIOR
SECTIONS)...THEN L/M70S WED...AND MNLY IN THE 60S THU/FRI. LO TEMPS
IN THE 50S IN THE L/M50S MON NGT...M/U50S TUE NGT...L/M50S WED
NGT...THEN M40S TO L50S THU NGT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE FALLS APART AS IT CROSSES THE AREA TODAY. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SW WINDS TO PREVAIL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG THIS MORNING. FOG WILL LIFT/DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER 25/1200Z. A WEAK TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE REGION
THIS EVENING AND WILL BRING SCATTERED CLOUDS OF 7-10 KFT THROUGH
THE AREA ROUGHLY BTWN 25/2100Z NW THROUGH 26/0600Z SE. A WEAK BUT
DRY COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY VEERING WINDS TO THE NW AND BECOMING BREEZY
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. GUSTS WILL AVERAGE 15-20KT INLAND WITH
HIGHER GUSTS AROUND 30KT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY...THEN SLIDES OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY/VFR WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTH AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 15KT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO
IMPACT THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO DEVELOP WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AS WEDNESDAY PROGRESSES.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRIEF DIURNAL SURGE IN NW-N WINDS (10-15KT) IS OCCURRING AS OF 4AM
AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 7-8AM THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE FALLS APART AS IT CROSSES THE WATERS
TODAY. NW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BACK TO THE WEST BY THIS AFTN WITH
SPEEDS AOB 15KT ALL WATERS. SEAS/WAVES WILL AVERAGE 2-4FT/2-3FT
RESPECTIVELY. A WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...
FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING. WEST WINDS AOB 15KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AND
THEN VEER TO THE NW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO
DUE TO LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION (10-15KT RIVERS/SOUND...15-20KT
WITH GUSTS TO 25KT CHES BAY...15-25KT WITH GUSTS TO 30KT COASTAL
WATERS FENWICK ISLAND TO VA/NC BORDER). SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO RISE
DUE TO A W-NW DIRECTION BUT SHOULD AVERAGE 3-4FT FROM 10-20NM. UP TO
5FT SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR 20NM FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO
CHINCOTEAGUE. SCA FLAGS HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR CHES BAY AND COASTAL
WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO THE VA/NC BORDER BEGINNING AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH SUNDAY. PLEASE REFER TO
MWWAKQ FOR EXACT TIMING. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS ON
MONDAY AND THEN SLIDES EWD OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL BE HIGHLIGHTING DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.
MIXED LAYER DP TMPS PROGGED INTO THE L-M30S BY 18Z SUNDAY WILL
YIELD RH VALUES ~30%. THIS IN TANDEM WITH GUSTY NW WINDS BTWN
15-25 MPH AND DRY FUELS AFTER DRY FROPA. IF PRESENT FORECAST
THINKING VERIFIES, AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT MAY BE
NEEDED IF THE 10 HR FUEL MOISTURES DROP BELOW 10%.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ632-
     634-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630-
     631.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...ALB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD
FIRE WEATHER...








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 251059
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
659 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE COAST TODAY...AHEAD OF A DRY COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES 1020+MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WEST-CENTRAL GULF COAST/TN VALLEY. TO THE NORTH, A QUICK MOVING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS ONTARIO/NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC COOL FRONT NOW EXTENDING SW
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY.

A PLEASANT FALL AFTN ON THE WAY TODAY AS SFC HIGH PRES NUDGES INTO
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE A DRY VERTICAL COLUMN ALONG
WITH A W-NW DOWNSLOPING FLOW. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE TODAY WITH SEASONABLY MILD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S.

DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING, WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME SCT CLOUDS WITH THE FROPA.
BREEZY AND A BIT MILDER TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY MID TO UPPER
40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SE CANADA WILL DROP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND EARLY
SUNDAY, BEFORE PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO ATLANTIC CANADA BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST FROM
THE OHIO/TN VLY...SHUNTING SFC FRONT SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS
SUNDAY AFTN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. EXPECT AMPLE SUNSHINE
EACH DAY. DOWNSLOPE WIND WILL HELP TO BOOST HIGHS BETWEEN 70-75 BOTH
DAYS. LOWS SUN NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 40S EXCEPT U30S WRN MOST AREAS TO
L50S SERN BEACH AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ON TUESDAY AFTER LOWS MAINLY
IN THE 50S EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

ONE ADDITIONAL NOTE...WELL MIXED ATM AND COMPRESSED PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A BREEZY DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS ALONG WITH RH
FALLING <30% WILL RESULT IN CONDITIONS THAT APPROACH CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS. SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MILD/WARM TO START IN EXTENDED THEN TRENDING COOLER BY THE END. HI
PRES SFC-ALOFT RMNS INVOF SE AND MDATLC CSTS MON NGT THROUGH TUE
BEFORE SHIFTING E ALLOWING BROAD TROUGH (ALOFT) TO SETTLE FM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE ERN STATES. CDFNT WILL APPROACH FM THE WNW
WED...THEN PUSH ACRS THE FA WED NGT INTO THU AFTN. W/ THE FNT...XPCG
PDS OF CLDNS AND (RIGHT NOW) A LO CHC POP (FOR SHRAS). AHEAD OF THE
FNT...MILD/WARM SWLY FLO AND SKC-PCLDY...THEN VRB CLDS FM LT WED
INTO FRI AS AIR TURNS COOLER (ON RETURN OF NNW WNDS).

HI TEMPS TUE RANGING THROUGH THE 70S (MAYBE L80S OVR INTERIOR
SECTIONS)...THEN L/M70S WED...AND MNLY IN THE 60S THU/FRI. LO TEMPS
IN THE 50S IN THE L/M50S MON NGT...M/U50S TUE NGT...L/M50S WED
NGT...THEN M40S TO L50S THU NGT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE FALLS APART AS IT CROSSES THE AREA TODAY. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SW WINDS TO PREVAIL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG THIS MORNING. FOG WILL LIFT/DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER 25/1200Z. A WEAK TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE REGION
THIS EVENING AND WILL BRING SCATTERED CLOUDS OF 7-10 KFT THROUGH
THE AREA ROUGHLY BTWN 25/2100Z NW THROUGH 26/0600Z SE. A WEAK BUT
DRY COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY VEERING WINDS TO THE NW AND BECOMING BREEZY
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. GUSTS WILL AVERAGE 15-20KT INLAND WITH
HIGHER GUSTS AROUND 30KT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY...THEN SLIDES OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY/VFR WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTH AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 15KT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO
IMPACT THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO DEVELOP WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AS WEDNESDAY PROGRESSES.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRIEF DIURNAL SURGE IN NW-N WINDS (10-15KT) IS OCCURRING AS OF 4AM
AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 7-8AM THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE FALLS APART AS IT CROSSES THE WATERS
TODAY. NW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BACK TO THE WEST BY THIS AFTN WITH
SPEEDS AOB 15KT ALL WATERS. SEAS/WAVES WILL AVERAGE 2-4FT/2-3FT
RESPECTIVELY. A WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...
FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING. WEST WINDS AOB 15KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AND
THEN VEER TO THE NW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO
DUE TO LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION (10-15KT RIVERS/SOUND...15-20KT
WITH GUSTS TO 25KT CHES BAY...15-25KT WITH GUSTS TO 30KT COASTAL
WATERS FENWICK ISLAND TO VA/NC BORDER). SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO RISE
DUE TO A W-NW DIRECTION BUT SHOULD AVERAGE 3-4FT FROM 10-20NM. UP TO
5FT SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR 20NM FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO
CHINCOTEAGUE. SCA FLAGS HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR CHES BAY AND COASTAL
WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO THE VA/NC BORDER BEGINNING AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH SUNDAY. PLEASE REFER TO
MWWAKQ FOR EXACT TIMING. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS ON
MONDAY AND THEN SLIDES EWD OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL BE HIGHLIGHTING DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.
MIXED LAYER DP TMPS PROGGED INTO THE L-M30S BY 18Z SUNDAY WILL
YIELD RH VALUES ~30%. THIS IN TANDEM WITH GUSTY NW WINDS BTWN
15-25 MPH AND DRY FUELS AFTER DRY FROPA. IF PRESENT FORECAST
THINKING VERIFIES, AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT MAY BE
NEEDED IF THE 10 HR FUEL MOISTURES DROP BELOW 10%.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ632-
     634-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630-
     631.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...ALB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD
FIRE WEATHER...








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 251053
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
653 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE COAST TODAY...AHEAD OF A DRY COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES 1020+MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WEST-CENTRAL GULF COAST/TN VALLEY. TO THE NORTH, A QUICK MOVING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS ONTARIO/NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC COOL FRONT NOW EXTENDING SW
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY.

A PLEASANT FALL AFTN ON THE WAY TODAY AS SFC HIGH PRES NUDGES INTO
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE A DRY VERTICAL COLUMN ALONG
WITH A W-NW DOWNSLOPING FLOW. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE TODAY WITH SEASONABLY MILD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S.

DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH LITTLE
MORE THAN SOME SCT CLOUDS WITH THE FROPA. A BIT MILDER TONIGHT
WITH LOWS GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SE CANADA WILL DROP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND EARLY
SUNDAY, BEFORE PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO ATLANTIC CANADA BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST FROM
THE OHIO/TN VLY...SHUNTING SFC FRONT SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS
SUNDAY AFTN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. EXPECT AMPLE SUNSHINE
EACH DAY. DOWNSLOPE WIND WILL HELP TO BOOST HIGHS BETWEEN 70-75 BOTH
DAYS. LOWS SUN NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 40S EXCEPT U30S WRN MOST AREAS TO
L50S SERN BEACH AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ON TUESDAY AFTER LOWS MAINLY
IN THE 50S EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

ONE ADDITIONAL NOTE...WELL MIXED ATM AND COMPRESSED PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A BREEZY DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS ALONG WITH RH
FALLING <30% WILL RESULT IN CONDITIONS THAT APPROACH CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS. SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MILD/WARM TO START IN EXTENDED THEN TRENDING COOLER BY THE END. HI
PRES SFC-ALOFT RMNS INVOF SE AND MDATLC CSTS MON NGT THROUGH TUE
BEFORE SHIFTING E ALLOWING BROAD TROUGH (ALOFT) TO SETTLE FM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE ERN STATES. CDFNT WILL APPROACH FM THE WNW
WED...THEN PUSH ACRS THE FA WED NGT INTO THU AFTN. W/ THE FNT...XPCG
PDS OF CLDNS AND (RIGHT NOW) A LO CHC POP (FOR SHRAS). AHEAD OF THE
FNT...MILD/WARM SWLY FLO AND SKC-PCLDY...THEN VRB CLDS FM LT WED
INTO FRI AS AIR TURNS COOLER (ON RETURN OF NNW WNDS).

HI TEMPS TUE RANGING THROUGH THE 70S (MAYBE L80S OVR INTERIOR
SECTIONS)...THEN L/M70S WED...AND MNLY IN THE 60S THU/FRI. LO TEMPS
IN THE 50S IN THE L/M50S MON NGT...M/U50S TUE NGT...L/M50S WED
NGT...THEN M40S TO L50S THU NGT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE FALLS APART AS IT CROSSES THE AREA TODAY. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SW WINDS TO PREVAIL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG THIS MORNING. FOG WILL LIFT/DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER 25/1200Z. A WEAK TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE REGION
THIS EVENING AND WILL BRING SCATTERED CLOUDS OF 7-10 KFT THROUGH
THE AREA ROUGHLY BTWN 25/2100Z NW THROUGH 26/0600Z SE. A WEAK BUT
DRY COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY VEERING WINDS TO THE NW AND BECOMING BREEZY
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. GUSTS WILL AVERAGE 15-20KT INLAND WITH
HIGHER GUSTS AROUND 30KT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY...THEN SLIDES OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY/VFR WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTH AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 15KT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO
IMPACT THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO DEVELOP WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AS WEDNESDAY PROGRESSES.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRIEF DIURNAL SURGE IN NW-N WINDS (10-15KT) IS OCCURRING AS OF 4AM
AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 7-8AM THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE FALLS APART AS IT CROSSES THE WATERS
TODAY. NW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BACK TO THE WEST BY THIS AFTN WITH
SPEEDS AOB 15KT ALL WATERS. SEAS/WAVES WILL AVERAGE 2-4FT/2-3FT
RESPECTIVELY. A WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...
FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING. WEST WINDS AOB 15KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AND
THEN VEER TO THE NW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO
DUE TO LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION (10-15KT RIVERS/SOUND...15-20KT
WITH GUSTS TO 25KT CHES BAY...15-25KT WITH GUSTS TO 30KT COASTAL
WATERS FENWICK ISLAND TO VA/NC BORDER). SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO RISE
DUE TO A W-NW DIRECTION BUT SHOULD AVERAGE 3-4FT FROM 10-20NM. UP TO
5FT SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR 20NM FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO
CHINCOTEAGUE. SCA FLAGS HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR CHES BAY AND COASTAL
WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO THE VA/NC BORDER BEGINNING AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH SUNDAY. PLEASE REFER TO
MWWAKQ FOR EXACT TIMING. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS ON
MONDAY AND THEN SLIDES EWD OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL BE HIGHLIGHTING DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.
MIXED LAYER DP TMPS PROGGED INTO THE L-M30S BY 18Z SUNDAY WILL
YIELD RH VALUES ~30%. THIS IN TANDEM WITH GUSTY NW WINDS BTWN
15-25 MPH AND DRY FUELS AFTER DRY FROPA. IF PRESENT FORECAST
THINKING VERIFIES, AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT MAY BE
NEEDED IF THE 10 HR FUEL MOISTURES DROP BELOW 10%.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ632-
     634-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630-
     631.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...ALB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD
FIRE WEATHER...MAM









000
FXUS61 KAKQ 251053
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
653 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE COAST TODAY...AHEAD OF A DRY COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES 1020+MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WEST-CENTRAL GULF COAST/TN VALLEY. TO THE NORTH, A QUICK MOVING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS ONTARIO/NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC COOL FRONT NOW EXTENDING SW
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY.

A PLEASANT FALL AFTN ON THE WAY TODAY AS SFC HIGH PRES NUDGES INTO
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE A DRY VERTICAL COLUMN ALONG
WITH A W-NW DOWNSLOPING FLOW. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE TODAY WITH SEASONABLY MILD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S.

DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH LITTLE
MORE THAN SOME SCT CLOUDS WITH THE FROPA. A BIT MILDER TONIGHT
WITH LOWS GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SE CANADA WILL DROP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND EARLY
SUNDAY, BEFORE PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO ATLANTIC CANADA BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST FROM
THE OHIO/TN VLY...SHUNTING SFC FRONT SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS
SUNDAY AFTN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. EXPECT AMPLE SUNSHINE
EACH DAY. DOWNSLOPE WIND WILL HELP TO BOOST HIGHS BETWEEN 70-75 BOTH
DAYS. LOWS SUN NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 40S EXCEPT U30S WRN MOST AREAS TO
L50S SERN BEACH AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ON TUESDAY AFTER LOWS MAINLY
IN THE 50S EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

ONE ADDITIONAL NOTE...WELL MIXED ATM AND COMPRESSED PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A BREEZY DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS ALONG WITH RH
FALLING <30% WILL RESULT IN CONDITIONS THAT APPROACH CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS. SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MILD/WARM TO START IN EXTENDED THEN TRENDING COOLER BY THE END. HI
PRES SFC-ALOFT RMNS INVOF SE AND MDATLC CSTS MON NGT THROUGH TUE
BEFORE SHIFTING E ALLOWING BROAD TROUGH (ALOFT) TO SETTLE FM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE ERN STATES. CDFNT WILL APPROACH FM THE WNW
WED...THEN PUSH ACRS THE FA WED NGT INTO THU AFTN. W/ THE FNT...XPCG
PDS OF CLDNS AND (RIGHT NOW) A LO CHC POP (FOR SHRAS). AHEAD OF THE
FNT...MILD/WARM SWLY FLO AND SKC-PCLDY...THEN VRB CLDS FM LT WED
INTO FRI AS AIR TURNS COOLER (ON RETURN OF NNW WNDS).

HI TEMPS TUE RANGING THROUGH THE 70S (MAYBE L80S OVR INTERIOR
SECTIONS)...THEN L/M70S WED...AND MNLY IN THE 60S THU/FRI. LO TEMPS
IN THE 50S IN THE L/M50S MON NGT...M/U50S TUE NGT...L/M50S WED
NGT...THEN M40S TO L50S THU NGT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE FALLS APART AS IT CROSSES THE AREA TODAY. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SW WINDS TO PREVAIL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG THIS MORNING. FOG WILL LIFT/DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER 25/1200Z. A WEAK TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE REGION
THIS EVENING AND WILL BRING SCATTERED CLOUDS OF 7-10 KFT THROUGH
THE AREA ROUGHLY BTWN 25/2100Z NW THROUGH 26/0600Z SE. A WEAK BUT
DRY COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY VEERING WINDS TO THE NW AND BECOMING BREEZY
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. GUSTS WILL AVERAGE 15-20KT INLAND WITH
HIGHER GUSTS AROUND 30KT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY...THEN SLIDES OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY/VFR WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTH AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 15KT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO
IMPACT THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO DEVELOP WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AS WEDNESDAY PROGRESSES.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRIEF DIURNAL SURGE IN NW-N WINDS (10-15KT) IS OCCURRING AS OF 4AM
AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 7-8AM THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE FALLS APART AS IT CROSSES THE WATERS
TODAY. NW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BACK TO THE WEST BY THIS AFTN WITH
SPEEDS AOB 15KT ALL WATERS. SEAS/WAVES WILL AVERAGE 2-4FT/2-3FT
RESPECTIVELY. A WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...
FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING. WEST WINDS AOB 15KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AND
THEN VEER TO THE NW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO
DUE TO LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION (10-15KT RIVERS/SOUND...15-20KT
WITH GUSTS TO 25KT CHES BAY...15-25KT WITH GUSTS TO 30KT COASTAL
WATERS FENWICK ISLAND TO VA/NC BORDER). SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO RISE
DUE TO A W-NW DIRECTION BUT SHOULD AVERAGE 3-4FT FROM 10-20NM. UP TO
5FT SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR 20NM FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO
CHINCOTEAGUE. SCA FLAGS HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR CHES BAY AND COASTAL
WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO THE VA/NC BORDER BEGINNING AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH SUNDAY. PLEASE REFER TO
MWWAKQ FOR EXACT TIMING. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS ON
MONDAY AND THEN SLIDES EWD OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL BE HIGHLIGHTING DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.
MIXED LAYER DP TMPS PROGGED INTO THE L-M30S BY 18Z SUNDAY WILL
YIELD RH VALUES ~30%. THIS IN TANDEM WITH GUSTY NW WINDS BTWN
15-25 MPH AND DRY FUELS AFTER DRY FROPA. IF PRESENT FORECAST
THINKING VERIFIES, AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT MAY BE
NEEDED IF THE 10 HR FUEL MOISTURES DROP BELOW 10%.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ632-
     634-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630-
     631.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...ALB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD
FIRE WEATHER...MAM









000
FXUS61 KAKQ 250835 CCA
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
415 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE COAST TODAY...AHEAD OF A DRY COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES 1020+MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WEST-CENTRAL GULF COAST/TN VALLEY. TO THE NORTH, A QUICK MOVING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS ONTARIO/NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC COOL FRONT NOW EXTENDING SW
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY.

A PLEASANT FALL AFTN ON THE WAY TODAY AS SFC HIGH PRES NUDGES INTO
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE A DRY VERTICAL COLUMN ALONG
WITH A W-NW DOWNSLOPING FLOW. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE TODAY WITH SEASONABLY MILD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S.

DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH LITTLE
MORE THAN SOME SCT CLOUDS WITH THE FROPA. A BIT MILDER TONIGHT
WITH LOWS GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

LOW PRESSURE OVER SE CANADA WILL DROP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND EARLY
SUNDAY, BEFORE PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO ATLANTIC CANADA BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST FROM
THE OHIO/TN VLY...SHUNTING SFC FRONT SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS
SUNDAY AFTN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. EXPECT AMPLE SUNSHINE
EACH DAY. DOWNSLOPE WIND WILL HELP TO BOOST HIGHS BETWEEN 70-75 BOTH
DAYS. LOWS SUN NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 40S EXCEPT U30S WRN MOST AREAS TO
L50S SERN BEACH AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ON TUESDAY AFTER LOWS MAINLY
IN THE 50S EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

ONE ADDITIONAL NOTE...WELL MIXED ATM AND COMPRESSED PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A BREEZY DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS ALONG WITH RH
FALLING <30% WILL RESULT IN CONDITIONS THAT APPROACH CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS. SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MILD/WARM TO START IN EXTENDED THEN TRENDING COOLER BY THE END. HI
PRES SFC-ALOFT RMNS INVOF SE AND MDATLC CSTS MON NGT THROUGH TUE
BEFORE SHIFTING E ALLOWING BROAD TROUGH (ALOFT) TO SETTLE FM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE ERN STATES. CDFNT WILL APPROACH FM THE WNW
WED...THEN PUSH ACRS THE FA WED NGT INTO THU AFTN. W/ THE FNT...XPCG
PDS OF CLDNS AND (RIGHT NOW) A LO CHC POP (FOR SHRAS). AHEAD OF THE
FNT...MILD/WARM SWLY FLO AND SKC-PCLDY...THEN VRB CLDS FM LT WED
INTO FRI AS AIR TURNS COOLER (ON RETURN OF NNW WNDS).

HI TEMPS TUE RANGING THROUGH THE 70S (MAYBE L80S OVR INTERIOR
SECTIONS)...THEN L/M70S WED...AND MNLY IN THE 60S THU/FRI. LO TEMPS
IN THE 50S IN THE L/M50S MON NGT...M/U50S TUE NGT...L/M50S WED
NGT...THEN M40S TO L50S THU NGT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US CONTINUES TO BUILD
NORTHWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT...PROVIDING VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
PRODUCING SOME CIRRUS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...BUT IT WILL
NOT IMPACT AVIATION. WITH AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE THROUGH
00Z SUN...EXPECT THE VFR CONDITION TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. BUT WITH THE HIGH SLIDING EAST OF THE REGION TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD...WILL SEE THE WIND DIRECTION SWITCH TO SW SAT
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK: A DRY COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE EASTERN US BY
SUNDAY MORNING. VFR CONDS CONTINUE TO PERSIST SAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRIEF DIURNAL SURGE IN NW-N WINDS (10-15KT) IS OCCURRING AS OF 4AM
AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 7-8AM THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE FALLS APART AS IT CROSSES THE WATERS
TODAY. NW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BACK TO THE WEST BY THIS AFTN WITH
SPEEDS AOB 15KT ALL WATERS. SEAS/WAVES WILL AVERAGE 2-4FT/2-3FT
RESPECTIVELY. A WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...
FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING. WEST WINDS AOB 15KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AND
THEN VEER TO THE NW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO
DUE TO LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION (10-15KT RIVERS/SOUND...15-20KT
WITH GUSTS TO 25KT CHES BAY...15-25KT WITH GUSTS TO 30KT COASTAL
WATERS FENWICK ISLAND TO VA/NC BORDER). SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO RISE
DUE TO A W-NW DIRECTION BUT SHOULD AVERAGE 3-4FT FROM 10-20NM. UP TO
5FT SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR 20NM FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO
CHINCOTEAGUE. SCA FLAGS HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR CHES BAY AND COASTAL
WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO THE VA/NC BORDER BEGINNING AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH SUNDAY. PLEASE REFER TO
MWWAKQ FOR EXACT TIMING. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS ON
MONDAY AND THEN SLIDES EWD OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL BE HIGHLIGHTING DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.
MIXED LAYER DP TMPS PROGGED INTO THE L-M30S BY 18Z SUNDAY WILL
YIELD RH VALUES ~30%. THIS IN TANDEM WITH GUSTY NW WINDS BTWN
15-25 MPH AND DRY FUELS AFTER DRY FROPA. IF PRESENT FORECAST
THINKING VERIFIES, AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT MAY BE
NEEDED IF THE 10 HR FUEL MOISTURES DROP BELOW 10%.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ632-
     634-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630-
     631.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...ALB
AVIATION...ESS
MARINE...BMD
FIRE WEATHER...MAM











000
FXUS61 KAKQ 250815
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
415 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE COAST TODAY...AHEAD OF A DRY COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES 1020+MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WEST-CENTRAL GULF COAST/TN VALLEY. TO THE NORTH, A QUICK MOVING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS ONTARIO/NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC COOL FRONT NOW EXTENDING SW
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY.

A PLEASANT FALL AFTN ON THE WAY TODAY AS SFC HIGH PRES NUDGES INTO
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE A DRY VERTICAL COLUMN ALONG
WITH A W-NW DOWNSLOPING FLOW. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE TODAY WITH SEASONABLY MILD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S.

DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH LITTLE
MORE THAN SOME SCT CLOUDS WITH THE FROPA. A BIT MILDER TONIGHT
WITH LOWS GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

LOW PRESSURE OVER SE CANADA WILL DROP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND EARLY
SUNDAY, BEFORE PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO ATLANTIC CANADA BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST FROM
THE OHIO/TN VLY...SHUNTING SFC FRONT SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS
SUNDAY AFTN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. EXPECT AMPLE SUNSHINE
EACH DAY. DOWNSLOPE WIND WILL HELP TO BOOST HIGHS BETWEEN 70-75 BOTH
DAYS. LOWS SUN NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 40S EXCEPT U30S WRN MOST AREAS TO
L50S SERN BEACH AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ON TUESDAY AFTER LOWS MAINLY
IN THE 50S EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

ONE ADDITIONAL NOTE...WELL MIXED ATM AND COMPRESSED PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A BREEZY DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS ALONG WITH RH
FALLING <30% WILL RESULT IN CONDITIONS THAT APPROACH CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS. SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MILD/WARM TO START IN EXTENDED THEN TRENDING COOLER BY THE END. HI
PRES SFC-ALOFT RMNS INVOF SE AND MDATLC CSTS MON NGT THROUGH TUE
BEFORE SHIFTING E ALLOWING BROAD TROUGH (ALOFT) TO SETTLE FM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE ERN STATES. CDFNT WILL APPROACH FM THE WNW
WED...THEN PUSH ACRS THE FA WED NGT INTO THU AFTN. W/ THE FNT...XPCG
PDS OF CLDNS AND (RIGHT NOW) A LO CHC POP (FOR SHRAS). AHEAD OF THE
FNT...MILD/WARM SWLY FLO AND SKC-PCLDY...THEN VRB CLDS FM LT WED
INTO FRI AS AIR TURNS COOLER (ON RETURN OF NNW WNDS).

HI TEMPS TUE RANGING THROUGH THE 70S (MAYBE L80S OVR INTERIOR
SECTIONS)...THEN L/M70S WED...AND MNLY IN THE 60S THU/FRI. LO TEMPS
IN THE 50S IN THE L/M50S MON NGT...M/U50S TUE NGT...L/M50S WED
NGT...THEN M40S TO L50S THU NGT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US CONTINUES TO BUILD
NORTHWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT...PROVIDING VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
PRODUCING SOME CIRRUS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...BUT IT WILL
NOT IMPACT AVIATION. WITH AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE THROUGH
00Z SUN...EXPECT THE VFR CONDITION TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. BUT WITH THE HIGH SLIDING EAST OF THE REGION TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD...WILL SEE THE WIND DIRECTION SWITCH TO SW SAT
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK: A DRY COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE EASTERN US BY
SUNDAY MORNING. VFR CONDS CONTINUE TO PERSIST SAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRIEF DIURNAL SURGE IN NW-N WINDS (10-15KT) IS OCCURRING AS OF 4AM
AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 7-8AM THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE FALLS APART AS IT CROSSES THE WATERS
TODAY. NW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BACK TO THE WEST BY THIS AFTN WITH
SPEEDS AOB 15KT ALL WATERS. SEAS/WAVES WILL AVERAGE 2-4FT/2-3FT
RESPECTIVELY. A WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...
FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING. WEST WINDS AOB 15KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AND
THEN VEER TO THE NW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO
DUE TO LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION (10-15KT RIVERS/SOUND...15-20KT
WITH GUSTS TO 25KT CHES BAY...15-25KT WITH GUSTS TO 30KT COASTAL
WATERS FENWICK ISLAND TO VA/NC BORDER). SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO RISE
DUE TO A W-NW DIRECTION BUT SHOULD AVERAGE 3-4FT FROM 10-20NM. UP TO
5FT SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR 20NM FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO
CHINCOTEAGUE. SCA FLAGS HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR CHES BAY AND COASTAL
WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO THE VA/NC BORDER BEGINNING AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH SUNDAY. PLEASE REFER TO
MWWAKQ FOR EXACT TIMING. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS ON
MONDAY AND THEN SLIDES EWD OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL BE HIGHLIGHTING DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.
MIXED LAYER DP TMPS PROGGED INTO THE L-M30S BY 18Z SUNDAY WILL
YIELD RH VALUES ~30%. THIS IN TANDEM WITH GUSTY NW WINDS BTWN
15-25 MPH AND DRY FUELS AFTER DRY FROPA. IF PRESENT FORECAST
THINKING VERIFIES, AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT MAY BE
NEEDED IF THE 10 HR FUEL MOISTURES DROP BELOW 10%.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ632-
     634-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630-
     631.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...ALB
AVIATION...ESS
MARINE...ALB
FIRE WEATHER...








000
FXUS61 KRNK 250755
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
355 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS FOR SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PASS
ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
WILL ARRIVE BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM EDT SATURDAY...

CHILLY LATE OCTOBER MORNING WITH PATCHY FROST A GOOD BET IN THE
MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS A FEW PIEDMONT AREAS. HOWEVER...NO CHANGES TO
THE FROST ADVISORY. TODAY WILL BE THE FINAL DAY FOR THE MOUNTAINS
FOR FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS AS THE GROWING SEASON OFFICIALLY ENDS.

SHOULD SEE A MILD DAY AHEAD OF A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT TRACKING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE WEST AT
10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH AT TIMES BY MID AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S MOUNTAINS TO LOWER TO MID 70S EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE.

THE FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS BY LATE TONIGHT WITH NW FLOW ALOFT.
MODELS SHOWING INCREASE IN LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE BUT AIRMASS IS
VERY DRY ATTM. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS TONIGHT FROM THE
GREENBRIER MOUNTAINS SOUTH INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS. OTHER THAN THAT
EXPECT MORE CLOUDS IN THE WEST OVERNIGHT TO CLEAR/PC EAST. WINDS
WILL STAY UP RESULTING IN MILDER LOWS...FROM THE MID 40S
MOUNTAINS...TO UPPER 40S...LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...

WILL START SUNDAY MORNING ON THE GUSTY SIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO OUR REGION IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT PASSED DURING THE
NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING LATE
MORNING...WITH 25 TO 35 MPH GUSTS LIKELY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...
MORESO NORTH OF HIGHWAY 460. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE CORE OF STRONGEST WINDS SHIFTS EAST...AND HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO SETTLE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT...BELIEVE THE COMBINATION
OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE PLAINS...AND WARMING
DOWNSLOPE WINDFLOW WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES MILD...WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE
MID 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE.


THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...
REACHING THE CAROLINA COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY. WITH THE
DEPARTURE OF THE HIGH...WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY ALONG THE
APPALACHIAN CHAIN...BRINGING WARMER AIR NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF. AS
SUCH...EXPECT TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO BE SIMILAR TO
THOSE MORE TYPICAL OF SEPTEMBER. MOST LOCATIONS WILL WARM INTO THE
70S ON MONDAY...AND EXPECT TO SEE LOW 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT ON
TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

EXPECT CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING. SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AS OUR NEXT COLD FRONT ENTERS
FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EDT SATURDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF CROSSING THE FORECAST REGION
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS WERE KEPT MAINLY ALONG
AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT COULD SLOW
DOWN WHILE CROSSING THE CWA...BUT THE QPF IS NOT IMPRESSIVE...
ALTHOUGH THE GFS SHOWS HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN THE ECMWF.

THE 25/00Z ECMWF AND GFS FORECAST MODELS AREA SIMILAR IN THE TIMING
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY...AND AGREE THAT THE FRONT WILL
STALL SOUTH OF OUR AREA DURING THURSDAY. THE DIURNAL RANGE OF
TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WAS KEPT SMALLER AND IN
CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE...AS CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS SHOULD LIMIT THE SPREAD BETWEEN HIGHS AND LOWS.

THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY BY FRIDAY. THE ECMWF
DEPICTS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE GFS PORTRAYS A SLOWER SOLUTION WITH A FLATTER
TROUGH. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WHICH COULD BE MOST NOTABLE ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES...HAVE BEEN MENTIONED FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 120 AM EDT FRIDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING.

PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT.
AIRCRAFT PARKED OUTDOORS MAY HAVE A FINE COATING ON THEIR SURFACES
AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

WINDS WILL BECOME CALM OR LIGHT NE OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON SATURDAY. SPEEDS MAY
INCREASE A BIT IN THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH
OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM.



EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW-END MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR ALONG WESTERN
SLOPES (BLF-LWB) TO HIGH-END MVFR AT BCB AS A CLIPPER FRONT TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION. AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE (ROA-LYH-DAN) WILL
REMAIN VFR. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BREEZY AND GUSTY
CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR ALL SITES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

DRY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LOWER
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSING OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...

ON A SAFETY NOTE...RAPIDLY WARMING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL
CAUSE RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO DECREASE QUICKLY. AND SINCE IT HAS BEEN
SEVERAL DAYS SINCE OUR LAST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...FALLEN LEAVES AND
BRUSH WILL HAVE HAD TIME TO DRY OUT. AS SUCH...THE COMBINATION OF
GUSTY WINDS...LOW HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS WILL MAKE OUTDOOR BURNING
HAZARDOUS ON SUNDAY...POTENTIALLY CAUSING FIRES TO BURN OUT OF
CONTROL. BURNING IS THEREFORE STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ011>017.
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ044-507.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF/PW
AVIATION...DS/RCS/WP
FIRE WEATHER...NF




000
FXUS61 KLWX 250748 CCA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
346 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY. A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST TUESDAY AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BARELY A DROP OF RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE CONUS ATTM - OUTSIDE OF THE
PAC NW AND FRINGE AREAS OF THE NRN GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THE
JET STREAM IS HANGING JUST NORTH OF THE US/CANADA BORDER BUT WILL
BRIEFLY SWING SOUTH OF THE BORDER TO CARRY THE NEXT SYSTEM. THIS
FEATURE IS A FAST-MOVING CLIPPER THAT WILL QUICKLY MAKE THE JOURNEY
FROM CNTRL CANADA TO THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS. A
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GENERATE AS THE WAVE APPROACHES NRN NEW
ENGLAND LATER TODAY. THE SFC LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LOW...NOT ALLOWING IT TO DEVELOP MUCH OF A
MID-LAT CYCLONIC CHARACTER. SO NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP FOR THE
SRN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE THE CLOSEST TO THE MID-ATLC
REGION.

PLENTY OF COLD AIR LOCKED IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE UPPER WAVE BUT IT
WILL BE CONCENTRATED FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE CENTER OF THE LOW...
CREATING A GOOD HEIGHT GRADIENT BACK ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS
WILL EVENTUALLY MEAN ANOTHER WINDY DAY FOR THE AREA ON SUNDAY BUT
FOR TODAY...ANOTHER PLEASANT AUTUMN AFTN TODAY. CURRENT TEMPS ARE
FAIRLY COOL BUT NOT TOO FAR BELOW AVG VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR AND ONLY BECAUSE DRY NW WINDS CONTINUE TO KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE
U30S. AFTER SUNRISE...DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON A SLIGHT REBOUND AS WINDS
TURN MORE SWLY. TEMPS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY BACK INTO THE 60S BY LATE
MRNG...TOPPING OUT JUST BELOW 70 BY MID AFTN W/ CLEAR SKIES AND ONLY
A STEADY WLY BREEZE. USED AN EVEN BLEND OF BIAS-CORRECTED ADJMAV/MET
TEMPS.

LATER THIS EVE...THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BE ON THE
NW DOORSTEP...SLIDING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
A HANDFUL OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE UPON REACHING THE
SPINE OF THE APLCNS W/ LITTLE MORE THAN SOME LEFTOVER MID CLOUDS TO
MAKE IT PAST THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MODERATE
OVERNIGHT...AS DEWPOINTS ONLY DROP INTO THE M-U40S SO TEMPS WILL
STAY IN THE U40S/L50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE DRY COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY...THE
RELATIVELY MOIST AIR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SWEPT OFF TO THE
EAST AND REPLACED BY NOTICEABLY COLDER/DRIER AIR. SOLID NW WINDS
WILL BE THE REASON...AS THE DEEP UPPER PARENT LOW DRIFTS ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AND OFF THE COAST...THE SUBSIDENCE REGION BEHIND IT WILL
SWEEP THE AVERAGE CONDITIONS AND REPLACE IT W/ A DRY AND WINDY DAY.
DESPITE THESE CONDITIONS...SFC TEMPS WILL STILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE
U60S AND A FEW L70S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT...CAUSING WINDS TO
DIMINISH. LIGHT WINDS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PROVIDE A GOOD SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THEREFORE...MIN
TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY...ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS AND RURAL AREAS. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN
PORTIONS OF THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY...EASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA...NORTHERN MARYLAND AND THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SUBURBS
OF WASHINGTON/BALTIMORE...TO THE MID 40S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON
AND BALTIMORE. FROST IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION MONDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE
COAST BY LATE IN THE DAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP...ALLOWING FOR MILDER CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND TO THE MIDDLE 70S IN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE HIGH MONDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR MILDER CONDITIONS COMPARED TO SUNDAY NIGHT.
MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER 40S ACROSS SHELTERED
VALLEYS AND RURAL AREAS TO THE MIDDLE 50S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON
AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY...BUT IT WILL
REMAIN TO OUR WEST AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
USHER IN UNUSUALLY WARM CONDITIONS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MAX
TEMPS WILL APPROACH 80 DEGREES ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA TUESDAY
NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND THERE MAY
EVEN BE A FEW SHOWERS LATE ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...BUT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT SINCE
LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FOR LATE IN THE WEEK...BRINGING A RETURN OF
MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDS THRU THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD. QUIET HIGH PRES TODAY W/ JUST
A FEW PASSING CLOUDS AND A LIGHT SW WIND THIS AFTN. WINDS AGAIN
BECOME THE CONCERN SUNDAY...AS SFC AND LOW LEVEL WINDS REACH THE
15-25KT RANGE RANGE - LOCALLY HIGHER. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER-IN
THIS NEW WINDY DAY EARLY SUN...W/ GUSTS CONTAINING UNTIL LATER THIS
EVE.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A FEW 10-15KT GUSTS OVERNIGHT AS THE EVEN THE LAND AREAS CONTINUE TO
SHOW WINDS OUT OF THE NW - WHICH HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT FOR THE
PAST FEW DAYS. AT LEAST A CHANGING TREND IN STORE TO HEAD INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUMP UP WINDS AGAIN THIS AFTN BUT ONLY
IN THE 5-10KT RANGE AND OUT OF THE SSW. A QUICK-MOVING COLD FRONT
WILL BE THE PRECURSOR TO ANOTHER WINDY DAY ON SUNDAY. A SCA UP FOR
ALL THE WATERS STARTING JUST A COUPLE OF HRS AFT SUNRISE AND LASTING
THRU THE EVE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP DURING THIS
TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...GMS
SHORT TERM...BJL/GMS
LONG TERM...BJL/GMS
AVIATION...BJL/GMS
MARINE...BJL/GMS










000
FXUS61 KLWX 250741
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
341 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY. A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST TUESDAY AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX RIBBON HELPING MIX-DOWN THE GUSTY WINDS ATTM
AND WILL CONTINUE HOVERING OVER THE AREA INTO THE POST-DAWN HRS THIS
MRNG. OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN THE 20-25KT RANGE...W/ OVERALL SFC WINDS
AT A STEADY 10-15KT CLIP OUT OF THE NW. THE EXITING AND SLOW-MOVING
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM FROM A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO STILL HANGING AROUND
NEW ENGLAND...E OF THE HUDSON RVR/ERN NY. THE VORT MAX MERELY
SWINGING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW...BEING PULLED ALONG
BY THE SYSTEM...NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE MUCH EWD PROGRESS IN THE COMING
HRS. FOR THIS REASON...WINDS WILL STAY FAIRLY BREEZY OVERNIGHT WHICH
IS NOT ALL THAT COMMON - THEN PICK BACK UP EVEN FURTHER AFTER DAWN.

TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO MIXING-DOWN W/ SOME OF THE
GUSTS...WHICH IS KEEPING DEWPOINTS RELATIVELY HIGHER THAN W/ A NW
FLOW REGIME. EVEN THOUGH SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR ATTM...DEWPOINTS
ARE REMAINING RELATIVELY HIGH AND THIS IS KEEPING TEMPS ON THE
WARMER SIDE. IF NOT FOR THE MOISTURE...TEMPS WOULD LIKELY BE
DROPPING WELL INTO THE 40S AND 30S IN SHELTERED VLYS...BUT MOST
SITES ARE BARELY AOB 55F CURRENTLY.

NOT QUITE AS GUSTY TODAY AS ON THU BUT TEMPS WILL END UP IN ABOUT
AROUND THE SAME LEVELS - M60S...U60S OVER THE SRN TIER COUNTIES.
PLENTY OF SUN TODAY...A FEW PASSING UPPER DECKS AS A PRECIP-LESS
SHORTWAVE DIGS WELL TO OUR SOUTH...OVER THE SRN APLCNS. THIS FEATURE
WILL KEEP ITS INFLUENCES AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLC BUT WILL HELP TO
USHER-IN THE MORE CALMING EFFECT OF AN UPPER MIDWEST HIGH. AFTER THE
SFC FLOW DISSIPATES POST-SUNSET TONIGHT...DEWPOINTS WILL SLOWLY
REBOUND AGAIN INTO THE 40S...FOR ANOTHER REL MILD TEMP RANGE FOR OUR
OVERNIGHT LOWS. APPLIED A BIAS-CORRECTED MET/MEX FOR TODAY`S
HIGH/LOW TEMP GRIDS. ALSO MODIFIED WINDS IN THE NEAR/SHORT TERMS W/
NEWER HI-RES WRK GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE NOSE OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL MAKE A QUICK ENTRANCE ON
SAT...SLAMMING UP AGAINST THE EXITING UPPER LEVEL JET FROM THE
OFFSHORE LOW. THIS FAST UPPER NW FLOW WILL START TO BRING IN THE
CLOUD COVER TO THE MTNS ON SAT...BUT LEAVE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
FAIRLY DRY AND CLEAR UNTIL LATER IN THE EVE. BEING ON THE RIGHT-EXIT
DOWNWARD MOTION SIDE OF THE UPPER JET WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND. WEAK BUT STEADY DOWNSLOPING FLOW MAY HELP BRING
TEMPS UP A FEW MORE DEG...PEAKING IN THE M-U60S - POSSIBLY JUST
ABOVE 70F FOR SAT AFTN.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT...CAUSING WINDS TO
DIMINISH. LIGHT WINDS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PROVIDE A GOOD SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THEREFORE...MIN
TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY...ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS AND RURAL AREAS. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN
PORTIONS OF THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY...EASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA...NORTHERN MARYLAND AND THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SUBURBS
OF WASHINGTON/BALTIMORE...TO THE MID 40S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON
AND BALTIMORE. FROST IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION MONDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE
COAST BY LATE IN THE DAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP...ALLOWING FOR MILDER CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND TO THE MIDDLE 70S IN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE HIGH MONDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR MILDER CONDITIONS COMPARED TO SUNDAY NIGHT.
MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER 40S ACROSS SHELTERED
VALLEYS AND RURAL AREAS TO THE MIDDLE 50S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON
AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY...BUT IT WILL
REMAIN TO OUR WEST AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
USHER IN UNUSUALLY WARM CONDITIONS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MAX
TEMPS WILL APPROACH 80 DEGREES ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA TUESDAY
NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND THERE MAY
EVEN BE A FEW SHOWERS LATE ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...BUT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT SINCE
LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FOR LATE IN THE WEEK...BRINGING A RETURN OF
MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOTHER BREEZY AFTN TODAY BUT A TIER LOWER IN TERMS OF PEAK
GUSTS...WHERE 15-20KT WILL BE FAIRLY COMMON FROM AFTER SUNRISE.
SEVERAL MORE HEADING INTO THE DAYTIME HRS...OF THE STEADY BREEZE
TODAY. WINDS WILL THEN QUICKLY DROP OFF TOWARD SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUE STRENGTHENING OVER THE AREA INTO SAT.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER JUST OFF THE COAST INTO THE LATE NIGHT
HRS TONIGHT BUT TAKE IT`S BREEZY INFLUENCE. SCA CONTINUED FOR ALL
THE WATER THIS AFTN. MAY NEED TO FURTHER EXPAND THE SCA FOR THE
LOWEST BAY ZONES BUT WILL MONITOR UPCOMING SCA POTENTIAL.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP DURING THIS
TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...GMS
SHORT TERM...BJL/GMS
LONG TERM...BJL/GMS
AVIATION...BJL/GMS
MARINE...BJL/GMS








000
FXUS61 KRNK 250538
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
138 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY IN PLACE FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
SOUTHWEST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH COMING THROUGH MAINLY DRY...BUT WITH SOME GUSTY
WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PASS ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 110 AM EDT SATURDAY...

COLDER TEMPS IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS ALREADY AND MADE ADJUSTMENTS
DOWN IN TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. COVERAGE OF FROST MAY BE A
LITTLE MORE...BUT THE COUNTIES ALREADY IN THE FROST ADVISORY ARE
COVERED. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME FROST OVER SMYTH COUNTY VA INTO SRN
WV.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST COAST BY SUNRISE
SATURDAY. AN AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

FYI...THE GROWING SEASON FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA...SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA AND THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS WILL
END SATURDAY. UNTIL THE GROWING SEASON BEGINS NEXT SPRING...THIS
WILL BE THE LAST FROST ADVISORY/FREEZE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE RNK
MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

A DRY CLIPPER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
A FEW CLOUDS WILL ENTER THE MOUNTAINS BUT NO RAIN IS EXPECTED. AS
TYPICAL WITH DRY FALL FRONTS...BREEZY/GUSTS CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.

MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S TONIGHT WHILE
RIDGES REMAIN MILD NEAR 40F. IN THE EAST...TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL BRING WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
THE AREA SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST WILL RANGE IN THE 60S
WHILE 70S ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT FRIDAY...

A DRY CLIPPER FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE SHALLOW AND NOT THICK ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE MEASURABLE RAINFALL. HOWEVER...WITH A MOIST WEST
WIND...CLOUDS WILL BE BANKED UP AGAINST WESTERN SLOPES SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AND UPSLOPE
COMPONENT...WILL HAVE DRIZZLE AS THE PRIMARY P-TYPE AND REDUCE THE
CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL. SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY ADVANCE TO
THE BLUE RIDGE SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WITH WESTERLY FLOW INTO A
RELATIVE DRY AIR...DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE TO MOVE
EAST OF RNK EXTREME WESTERN SLOPES. DRY FALL FRONTAL PASSAGES
TYPICAL RESULT IN BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS FOR LOCATIONS SEEING
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THIS WILL BE TRUE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING THE WINDS TO RELAX THROUGH THE EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA MONDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW A WARM
FRONT TO TRACK OVER THE REGION. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS WARM
FRONT.

DESPITE A COLD FRONT TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 60S ALONG UPSLOPE AREAS TO THE MID 70S EAST. THE PASSING OF A
WARM FRONT ON MONDAY WILL BRING EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES
MONDAY...70S AREAWIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT THURSDAY...

THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
FOR ONE MORE DAY...WHICH WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PROMOTE GENEROUS WARM AIR
ADVECTION...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY HITTING 80 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT
BASED ON MOS GUIDANCE. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE
DURING TUESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS WERE KEPT MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT
COULD SLOW DOWN WHILE CROSSING THE CWA...BUT THE QPF IS NOT
IMPRESSIVE...ALTHOUGH THE GFS SHOWS HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN THE ECMWF.

SURPRISINGLY...THE 00Z ECMWF IS A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN
THE 12Z GFS WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...WHEN THE TYPICAL BIAS
BETWEEN THESE MODELS IS THE OTHER WAY. THEY EVENTUALLY AGREE ON
STALLING THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE CWA DURING THURSDAY. THE DIURNAL
RANGE OF TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WAS KEPT SMALLER
AND IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE...AS CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWERS SHOULD LIMIT THE SPREAD BETWEEN HIGHS AND LOWS.
THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY BY FRIDAY. THE ECMWF
DEPICTS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE GFS PORTRAYS A SLOWER SOLUTION WITH A
FLATTER TROUGH. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WHICH COULD BE MOST NOTABLE ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES...HAVE BEEN MENTIONED FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 120 AM EDT FRIDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING.

PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT.
AIRCRAFT PARKED OUTDOORS MAY HAVE A FINE COATING ON THEIR SURFACES
AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

WINDS WILL BECOME CALM OR LIGHT NE OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON SATURDAY. SPEEDS MAY
INCREASE A BIT IN THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH
OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM.



EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW-END MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR ALONG WESTERN
SLOPES (BLF-LWB) TO HIGH-END MVFR AT BCB AS A CLIPPER FRONT TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION. AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE (ROA-LYH-DAN) WILL
REMAIN VFR. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BREEZY AND GUSTY
CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR ALL SITES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

DRY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LOWER
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSING OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ011>017.
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ044-507.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...CF/RCS/WP
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...DS/RCS/WP




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 250135
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
935 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN DRIFTS OFF THE
COAST SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO AND OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SFC HIGH MOVES OVR THE AREA OVERNIGHT WHILE MODELS TRACK A QUICK
MOVING S/W SE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXITING OFF
THE SERN COAST SAT MORNING. HIGH LVL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT ACROSS THE FA THRU THE NIGHT. LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID
40S TO NR 50 SERN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRS SHIFTS OFFSHORE SAT WITH MODELS SUGGESTING A LEE TROF
DVLPNG OUT AHEAD OF THE APPRCHG CDFRNT. TSCTNS SHOW A DRY COLUMN
ALONG WITH A W-NW DOWNSLOPING FLOW. UPSHOT WILL BE ANTHR DRY DAY
WITH ONLY SCT CLOUDS AT BEST. HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 70.

DRY COLD FRNTL PASSAGE SAT NIGHT. SKIES AVG PT CLDY. LOWS M40S-L50S.

HIGH PRESSURE SYSTMS BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
EXPCT AMPL SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS. DOWNSLOPE WIND WILL HELP TO BOOST
HIGHS BTWN 70-75 BOTH DAYS. LOWS SUN NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 40S XCPT
U30S WRN MOST AREAS TO L50S SERN BEACH AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MILD/WARM TO START IN EXTENDED THEN TRENDING COOLER BY THE END. HI
PRES SFC-ALOFT RMNS INVOF SE AND MDATLC CSTS MON NGT THROUGH TUE
BEFORE SHIFTING E ALLOWING BROAD TROUGH (ALOFT) TO SETTLE FM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE ERN STATES. CDFNT WILL APPROACH FM THE WNW
WED...THEN PUSH ACRS THE FA WED NGT INTO THU AFTN. W/ THE FNT...XPCG
PDS OF CLDNS AND (RIGHT NOW) A LO CHC POP (FOR SHRAS). AHEAD OF THE
FNT...MILD/WARM SWLY FLO AND SKC-PCLDY...THEN VRB CLDS FM LT WED
INTO FRI AS AIR TURNS COOLER (ON RETURN OF NNW WNDS).

HI TEMPS TUE RANGING THROUGH THE 70S (MAYBE L80S OVR INTERIOR
SECTIONS)...THEN L/M70S WED...AND MNLY IN THE 60S THU/FRI. LO TEMPS
IN THE 50S IN THE L/M50S MON NGT...M/U50S TUE NGT...L/M50S WED
NGT...THEN M40S TO L50S THU NGT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US CONTINUES TO BUILD
NORTHWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT...PROVIDING VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
PRODUCING SOME CIRRUS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...BUT IT WILL
NOT IMPACT AVIATION. WITH AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE THROUGH
00Z SUN...EXPECT THE VFR CONDITION TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. BUT WITH THE HIGH SLIDING EAST OF THE REGION TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD...WILL SEE THE WIND DIRECTION SWITCH TO SW SAT AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK: A DRY COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE EASTERN US BY
SUNDAY MORNING. VFR CONDS CONTINUE TO PERSIST SAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL ALLOW SCAS TO EXPIRE AT 20Z/24 FOR ALL BUT FAR NRN OCN ZONE
(DUE TO SEAS HOVERING ARND 5 FT). NW WNDS CONT INTO SAT W/ SPEEDS
LWRG (GRADUALLY). NEXT PSBL PD OF SCA LT SAT NGT INTO SUN NGT W/
CDFNTL PASSAGE AND LO LVL CAA (IN ITS WAKE) AS W WNDS BECOME NW.
SPEEDS LWRG AGAIN ON MON...THEN BECOME SW MON NGT CONTG THROUGH WED
(WHILE RMNG BLO SCA THRESHOLDS).

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CONCERN SUNDAY AFTRN WILL BE FOR BREEZY/WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE AREAS. MIXED LAYER DP TMPS PROGGED
INTO THE L-M30S BY 18Z SUNDAY RESULTING IN RH VALUES ARND 30% ALONG
WITH GUSTY NW WINDS BTWN 15-25 MPH. THUS...AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT MAY BE NEEDED IF THE 10 HR FUEL MOISTURES DROP BLO 10%.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MAS/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...ALB
AVIATION...ESS
MARINE...ALB
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KRNK 250133
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
933 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY IN PLACE FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
SOUTHWEST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH COMING THROUGH MAINLY DRY...BUT WITH SOME GUSTY
WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PASS ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 930 PM EDT FRIDAY...

QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IR SAT SHOWS SOME SCT HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL VA...OTHERWISE MOST OF THE AREA IS
CLEAR. AS EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS ARE STARTING TO DROP OFF AND TEMPS
ARE FALLING QUICKLY. NO CHANGES TO THE FROST ADVISORY WHICH GOES
INTO EFFECT AT 2AM/06Z FOR SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH BROUGHT HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE REGION
TODAY...WILL PIVOT OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...MOVING TO
THE EAST COAST BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. AN AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING...LIGHT WINDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES MAY ALLOW
FROST TO FORM IN DEEP MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS IS NOT IDEAL FOR WIDESPREAD FROST TO FORM...BUT ENOUGH
TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY. FYI...THE GROWING SEASON FOR THE MOUNTAINS
OF SOUTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA AND THE
NORTH CAROLINA HIGHLANDS WILL END SATURDAY. UNTIL THE GROWING
SEASON BEGINS NEXT SPRING...THIS WILL BE THE LAST FROST
ADVISORY/FREEZE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE RNK MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

A DRY CLIPPER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
A FEW CLOUDS WILL ENTER THE MOUNTAINS BUT NO RAIN IS EXPECTED. AS
TYPICAL WITH DRY FALL FRONTS...BREEZY/GUSTS CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.

MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S TONIGHT WHILE
RIDGES REMAIN MILD NEAR 40F. IN THE EAST...TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL BRING WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
THE AREA SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST WILL RANGE IN THE 60S
WHILE 70S ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT FRIDAY...

A DRY CLIPPER FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE SHALLOW AND NOT THICK ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE MEASURABLE RAINFALL. HOWEVER...WITH A MOIST WEST
WIND...CLOUDS WILL BE BANKED UP AGAINST WESTERN SLOPES SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AND UPSLOPE
COMPONENT...WILL HAVE DRIZZLE AS THE PRIMARY P-TYPE AND REDUCE THE
CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL. SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY ADVANCE TO
THE BLUE RIDGE SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WITH WESTERLY FLOW INTO A
RELATIVE DRY AIR...DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE TO MOVE
EAST OF RNK EXTREME WESTERN SLOPES. DRY FALL FRONTAL PASSAGES
TYPICAL RESULT IN BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS FOR LOCATIONS SEEING
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THIS WILL BE TRUE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING THE WINDS TO RELAX THROUGH THE EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA MONDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW A WARM
FRONT TO TRACK OVER THE REGION. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS WARM
FRONT.

DESPITE A COLD FRONT TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 60S ALONG UPSLOPE AREAS TO THE MID 70S EAST. THE PASSING OF A
WARM FRONT ON MONDAY WILL BRING EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES
MONDAY...70S AREAWIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT THURSDAY...

THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
FOR ONE MORE DAY...WHICH WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PROMOTE GENEROUS WARM AIR
ADVECTION...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY HITTING 80 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT
BASED ON MOS GUIDANCE. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE
DURING TUESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS WERE KEPT MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT
COULD SLOW DOWN WHILE CROSSING THE CWA...BUT THE QPF IS NOT
IMPRESSIVE...ALTHOUGH THE GFS SHOWS HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN THE ECMWF.

SURPRISINGLY...THE 00Z ECMWF IS A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN
THE 12Z GFS WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...WHEN THE TYPICAL BIAS
BETWEEN THESE MODELS IS THE OTHER WAY. THEY EVENTUALLY AGREE ON
STALLING THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE CWA DURING THURSDAY. THE DIURNAL
RANGE OF TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WAS KEPT SMALLER
AND IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE...AS CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWERS SHOULD LIMIT THE SPREAD BETWEEN HIGHS AND LOWS.
THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY BY FRIDAY. THE ECMWF
DEPICTS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE GFS PORTRAYS A SLOWER SOLUTION WITH A
FLATTER TROUGH. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WHICH COULD BE MOST NOTABLE ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES...HAVE BEEN MENTIONED FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 720 PM EDT FRIDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PATCHY MVFR LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT.
AIRCRAFT PARKED OUTDOORS MAY HAVE A FINE COATING ON THEIR SURFACES
AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

WINDS WILL BECOME CALM OR LIGHT NE OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON SATURDAY. SPEEDS MAY
INCREASE A BIT IN THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH
OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM.

AS OF 1209 PM EDT FRIDAY...

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW-END MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR ALONG WESTERN
SLOPES (BLF-LWB) TO HIGH-END MVFR AT BCB AS A CLIPPER FRONT TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION. AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE (ROA-LYH-DAN) WILL
REMAIN VFR. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BREEZY AND GUSTY
CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR ALL SITES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

DRY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LOWER
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSING OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ011>017.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ001-002-
     018.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ044-507.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...CF/RCS
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...DS/RCS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 250053
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
853 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH SATURDAY. A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
S/WV DIGGING ACRS APPALACHIA THIS EVNG. THE H5 TROF AXIS
PROVIDING A PLACE FOR CI TO CONGREGATE-- THESE CLDS HV MVD LTL
SINCE LT AFTN. GDNC SUGGESTING NEARLY SATD UPR LVLS WL SHIFT EWD
BTWN 06-12Z. HV ADJUSTED SKYCOVER AND WL MAKE APPROPRIATE
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS TOO.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FURTHER INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY
WHILE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE SC/GA COAST. MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH W-SW WINDS AROUND 10
MPH. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE ALLEGHENY FRONT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVC CONDTIONS ARE EXPECTED IN UPSLOPE LOCATIONS.

FCST MAX TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY...FRIDAY...MID
TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED. HV MADE AN ADDTL UPWD BUMP OF A DEGF OR TWO
BASED ON FRI OBS AND 18Z GDNC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAVEL ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA.
THIS FRONT WILL BE VERY WEAK IN NATURE AS THE MOISTURE AND FORCING
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO OUR NORTH. CONDITIONS MAY BE
FAVORABLE FOR UPSLOPE SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...BUT GIVEN THE SHALLOW
NATURE OF THE MOISTURE...WOULD EXPECT ANY AMOUNTS TO BE VERY LIGHT.
ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL SHOULD BE IN LIQUID FORM AS
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR 40 IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MUCH IN THE
WAY OF CLOUD COVER MAY BE DIFFICULT TO COME BY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST WILL RESULT IN A
BREEZY SUNDAY WITH GOOD MIXING. MINIMAL THERMAL DIFFERENCES BEHIND
THE FRONT...PLENTIFUL SUN AND A DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO SATURDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT AND WITH A DRY ATMOSPHERE...
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP. HAVE
MID-UPPER 30S WEST OF THE METROS BUT FEEL THESE AREAS COULD SNEAK A
FEW DEGREES COOLER. MENTION OF PATCHY FROST HAS BEEN MAINTAINED IN
THESE AREAS. MID 40S CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE METROS. THE HIGH WILL
SLIDE TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST ON MONDAY WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING EXPANDING TOWARD THE EAST COAST. MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE
HIGHS NEAR OR ABOVE 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ECMWF INDICATES THAT A SHORTWAVE FROM NORTHERN PLAINS CROSSING GREAT
LAKES BY LATE TUESDAY. 500MB TROUGH AND WEAK PVA CROSSING CWA
WEDNESDAY. NEXT SHORTWAVE TO CROSS CWA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
SURFACE FRONT FROM WEST WILL CROSS THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. ANOTHER FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL AFFECT THE CWA
FROM LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CERTAINTY REMAINS LOW THIS
FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH ECMWF TIMING SEEMS TO TRACK
FAIRLY WELL WITH HPC ENSEMBLE HPC INDICATES THAT PATTERN WILL
PRODUCE LESS PRECIPITATION THAN ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CI DECK CROSSING THE TERMINALS THIS EVNG. WNDS SUBSIDING...AND HV
ACTUALLY DCPLD AT SVRL SITES. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. GUSTY NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HV SUBSIDED ACRS THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA. ALLOWED THE SCA FOR
MOST OF THE WATERS TO EXPIRE AT 6PM...AND HV CANCELLED THE REST.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NEAR THE WATERS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. W-NW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED BUT WILL STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS BY SUNDAY AND NW WINDS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS. A SCA IS LIKELY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST LATER MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE DURING THIS
TIME. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...HTS/HAS
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...HTS/HAS
MARINE...HTS/HAS







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 250050
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
850 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN DRIFTS OFF THE
COAST SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO AND OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SFC HIGH MOVES OVR THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE MODELS TRACK A QUICK MOVING
S/W SE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXITING OFF THE SERN
COAST SAT MORNING. HIGH LVL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS
THE FA THRU THE NIGHT. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S XCPT U30S WRN MOST
AREAS TO NR 50 SERN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRS SHIFTS OFFSHORE SAT WITH MODELS SUGGESTING A LEE TROF
DVLPNG OUT AHEAD OF THE APPRCHG CDFRNT. TSCTNS SHOW A DRY COLUMN
ALONG WITH A W-NW DOWNSLOPING FLOW. UPSHOT WILL BE ANTHR DRY DAY
WITH ONLY SCT CLOUDS AT BEST. HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 70.

DRY COLD FRNTL PASSAGE SAT NIGHT. SKIES AVG PT CLDY. LOWS M40S-L50S.

HIGH PRESSURE SYSTMS BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
EXPCT AMPL SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS. DOWNSLOPE WIND WILL HELP TO BOOST
HIGHS BTWN 70-75 BOTH DAYS. LOWS SUN NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 40S XCPT
U30S WRN MOST AREAS TO L50S SERN BEACH AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MILD/WARM TO START IN EXTENDED THEN TRENDING COOLER BY THE END. HI
PRES SFC-ALOFT RMNS INVOF SE AND MDATLC CSTS MON NGT THROUGH TUE
BEFORE SHIFTING E ALLOWING BROAD TROUGH (ALOFT) TO SETTLE FM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE ERN STATES. CDFNT WILL APPROACH FM THE WNW
WED...THEN PUSH ACRS THE FA WED NGT INTO THU AFTN. W/ THE FNT...XPCG
PDS OF CLDNS AND (RIGHT NOW) A LO CHC POP (FOR SHRAS). AHEAD OF THE
FNT...MILD/WARM SWLY FLO AND SKC-PCLDY...THEN VRB CLDS FM LT WED
INTO FRI AS AIR TURNS COOLER (ON RETURN OF NNW WNDS).

HI TEMPS TUE RANGING THROUGH THE 70S (MAYBE L80S OVR INTERIOR
SECTIONS)...THEN L/M70S WED...AND MNLY IN THE 60S THU/FRI. LO TEMPS
IN THE 50S IN THE L/M50S MON NGT...M/U50S TUE NGT...L/M50S WED
NGT...THEN M40S TO L50S THU NGT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US CONTINUES TO BUILD
NORTHWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT...PROVIDING VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
PRODUCING SOME CIRRUS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...BUT IT WILL
NOT IMPACT AVIATION. WITH AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE THROUGH
00Z SUN...EXPECT THE VFR CONDITION TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. BUT WITH THE HIGH SLIDING EAST OF THE REGION TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD...WILL SEE THE WIND DIRECTION SWITCH TO SW SAT AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK: A DRY COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE EASTERN US BY
SUNDAY MORNING. VFR CONDS CONTINUE TO PERSIST SAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL ALLOW SCAS TO EXPIRE AT 20Z/24 FOR ALL BUT FAR NRN OCN ZONE
(DUE TO SEAS HOVERING ARND 5 FT). NW WNDS CONT INTO SAT W/ SPEEDS
LWRG (GRADUALLY). NEXT PSBL PD OF SCA LT SAT NGT INTO SUN NGT W/
CDFNTL PASSAGE AND LO LVL CAA (IN ITS WAKE) AS W WNDS BECOME NW.
SPEEDS LWRG AGAIN ON MON...THEN BECOME SW MON NGT CONTG THROUGH WED
(WHILE RMNG BLO SCA THRESHOLDS).

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CONCERN SUNDAY AFTRN WILL BE FOR BREEZY/WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE AREAS. MIXED LAYER DP TMPS PROGGED
INTO THE L-M30S BY 18Z SUNDAY RESULTING IN RH VALUES ARND 30% ALONG
WITH GUSTY NW WINDS BTWN 15-25 MPH. THUS...AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT MAY BE NEEDED IF THE 10 HR FUEL MOISTURES DROP BLO 10%.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...ALB
AVIATION...ESS
MARINE...ALB
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KLWX 242350
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
750 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH SATURDAY. A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROUND THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
MOVE ACROSS THE SE US TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
INTO THE APPALACHIAN REGION OF THE MID-ATLANTIC WHILE LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE NRN ATLANTIC MOVES AWAY.

NW WINDS 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE A PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL
EXISTS BETWEEN THE TWO SFC FEATURES. THIS GRADIENT WILL MOVE
EASTWARD TONIGHT AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH. ONLY MID-HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. FCST MIN TEMPS AROUND 40 DEG ARE EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FURTHER INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY WHILE
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE SC/GA COAST. MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH W-SW WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. A
DRY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE ALLEGHENY FRONT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVC CONDTIONS ARE EXPECTED IN UPSLOPE LOCATIONS. FCST MAX
TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY...FRIDAY...MID TO UPPER
60S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAVEL ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA.
THIS FRONT WILL BE VERY WEAK IN NATURE AS THE MOISTURE AND FORCING
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO OUR NORTH. CONDITIONS MAY BE
FAVORABLE FOR UPSLOPE SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...BUT GIVEN THE SHALLOW
NATURE OF THE MOISTURE...WOULD EXPECT ANY AMOUNTS TO BE VERY LIGHT.
ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL SHOULD BE IN LIQUID FORM AS
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR 40 IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MUCH IN THE
WAY OF CLOUD COVER MAY BE DIFFICULT TO COME BY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST WILL RESULT IN A
BREEZY SUNDAY WITH GOOD MIXING. MINIMAL THERMAL DIFFERENCES BEHIND
THE FRONT...PLENTIFUL SUN AND A DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO SATURDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT AND WITH A DRY ATMOSPHERE...
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP. HAVE
MID-UPPER 30S WEST OF THE METROS BUT FEEL THESE AREAS COULD SNEAK A
FEW DEGREES COOLER. MENTION OF PATCHY FROST HAS BEEN MAINTAINED IN
THESE AREAS. MID 40S CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE METROS. THE HIGH WILL
SLIDE TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST ON MONDAY WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING EXPANDING TOWARD THE EAST COAST. MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE
HIGHS NEAR OR ABOVE 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ECMWF INDICATES THAT A SHORTWAVE FROM NORTHERN PLAINS CROSSING GREAT
LAKES BY LATE TUESDAY. 500MB TROUGH AND WEAK PVA CROSSING CWA
WEDNESDAY. NEXT SHORTWAVE TO CROSS CWA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
SURFACE FRONT FROM WEST WILL CROSS THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. ANOTHER FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL AFFECT THE CWA
FROM LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CERTAINTY REMAINS LOW THIS
FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH ECMWF TIMING SEEMS TO TRACK
FAIRLY WELL WITH HPC ENSEMBLE HPC INDICATES THAT PATTERN WILL
PRODUCE LESS PRECIPITATION THAN ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CI DECK CROSSING THE TERMINALS THIS EVNG. WNDS SUBSIDING...AND HV
ACTUALLY DCPLD AT SVRL SITES. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. GUSTY NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HV SUBSIDED ACRS THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA. ALLOWED THE SCA FOR
MOST OF THE WATERS TO EXPIRE AT 6PM...AND HV CANCELLED THE REST.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NEAR THE WATERS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. W-NW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED BUT WILL STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS BY SUNDAY AND NW WINDS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS. A SCA IS LIKELY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST LATER MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE DURING THIS
TIME. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...HTS/HAS
MARINE...HTS/HAS








000
FXUS61 KRNK 242325
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
725 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY IN PLACE FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
SOUTHWEST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH COMING THROUGH MAINLY DRY...BUT WITH SOME GUSTY
WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PASS ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH BROUGHT HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE REGION
TODAY...WILL PIVOT OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...MOVING TO
THE EAST COAST BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. AN AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING...LIGHT WINDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES MAY ALLOW
FROST TO FORM IN DEEP MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS IS NOT IDEAL FOR WIDESPREAD FROST TO FORM...BUT ENOUGH
TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY. FYI...THE GROWING SEASON FOR THE MOUNTAINS
OF SOUTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA AND THE
NORTH CAROLINA HIGHLANDS WILL END SATURDAY. UNTIL THE GROWING
SEASON BEGINS NEXT SPRING...THIS WILL BE THE LAST FROST
ADVISORY/FREEZE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE RNK MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

A DRY CLIPPER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
A FEW CLOUDS WILL ENTER THE MOUNTAINS BUT NO RAIN IS EXPECTED. AS
TYPICAL WITH DRY FALL FRONTS...BREEZY/GUSTS CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.

MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S TONIGHT WHILE
RIDGES REMAIN MILD NEAR 40F. IN THE EAST...TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL BRING WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
THE AREA SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST WILL RANGE IN THE 60S
WHILE 70S ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT FRIDAY...

A DRY CLIPPER FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE SHALLOW AND NOT THICK ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE MEASURABLE RAINFALL. HOWEVER...WITH A MOIST WEST
WIND...CLOUDS WILL BE BANKED UP AGAINST WESTERN SLOPES SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AND UPSLOPE
COMPONENT...WILL HAVE DRIZZLE AS THE PRIMARY P-TYPE AND REDUCE THE
CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL. SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY ADVANCE TO
THE BLUE RIDGE SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WITH WESTERLY FLOW INTO A
RELATIVE DRY AIR...DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE TO MOVE
EAST OF RNK EXTREME WESTERN SLOPES. DRY FALL FRONTAL PASSAGES
TYPICAL RESULT IN BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS FOR LOCATIONS SEEING
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THIS WILL BE TRUE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING THE WINDS TO RELAX THROUGH THE EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA MONDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW A WARM
FRONT TO TRACK OVER THE REGION. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS WARM
FRONT.

DESPITE A COLD FRONT TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 60S ALONG UPSLOPE AREAS TO THE MID 70S EAST. THE PASSING OF A
WARM FRONT ON MONDAY WILL BRING EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES
MONDAY...70S AREAWIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT THURSDAY...

THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
FOR ONE MORE DAY...WHICH WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PROMOTE GENEROUS WARM AIR
ADVECTION...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY HITTING 80 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT
BASED ON MOS GUIDANCE. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE
DURING TUESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS WERE KEPT MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT
COULD SLOW DOWN WHILE CROSSING THE CWA...BUT THE QPF IS NOT
IMPRESSIVE...ALTHOUGH THE GFS SHOWS HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN THE ECMWF.

SURPRISINGLY...THE 00Z ECMWF IS A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN
THE 12Z GFS WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...WHEN THE TYPICAL BIAS
BETWEEN THESE MODELS IS THE OTHER WAY. THEY EVENTUALLY AGREE ON
STALLING THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE CWA DURING THURSDAY. THE DIURNAL
RANGE OF TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WAS KEPT SMALLER
AND IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE...AS CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWERS SHOULD LIMIT THE SPREAD BETWEEN HIGHS AND LOWS.
THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY BY FRIDAY. THE ECMWF
DEPICTS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE GFS PORTRAYS A SLOWER SOLUTION WITH A
FLATTER TROUGH. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WHICH COULD BE MOST NOTABLE ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES...HAVE BEEN MENTIONED FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 720 PM EDT FRIDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PATCHY MVFR LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT.
AIRCRAFT PARKED OUTDOORS MAY HAVE A FINE COATING ON THEIR SURFACES
AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

WINDS WILL BECOME CALM OR LIGHT NE OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON SATURDAY. SPEEDS MAY
INCREASE A BIT IN THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH
OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM.

AS OF 1209 PM EDT FRIDAY...

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW-END MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR ALONG WESTERN
SLOPES (BLF-LWB) TO HIGH-END MVFR AT BCB AS A CLIPPER FRONT TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION. AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE (ROA-LYH-DAN) WILL
REMAIN VFR. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BREEZY AND GUSTY
CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR ALL SITES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

DRY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LOWER
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSING OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ011>017.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ001-002-
     018.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ044-507.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...RCS
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...DS/RCS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 241953
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
353 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY IN PLACE FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
SOUTHWEST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH COMING THROUGH MAINLY DRY...BUT WITH SOME GUSTY
WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PASS ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH BROUGHT HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE REGION
TODAY...WILL PIVOT OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...MOVING TO
THE EAST COAST BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. AN AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING...LIGHT WINDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES MAY ALLOW
FROST TO FORM IN DEEP MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS IS NOT IDEAL FOR WIDESPREAD FROST TO FORM...BUT ENOUGH
TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY. FYI...THE GROWING SEASON FOR THE MOUNTAINS
OF SOUTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA AND THE
NORTH CAROLINA HIGHLANDS WILL END SATURDAY. UNTIL THE GROWING
SEASON BEGINS NEXT SPRING...THIS WILL BE THE LAST FROST
ADVISORY/FREEZE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE RNK MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

A DRY CLIPPER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
A FEW CLOUDS WILL ENTER THE MOUNTAINS BUT NO RAIN IS EXPECTED. AS
TYPICAL WITH DRY FALL FRONTS...BREEZY/GUSTS CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.

MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S TONIGHT WHILE
RIDGES REMAIN MILD NEAR 40F. IN THE EAST...TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL BRING WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
THE AREA SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST WILL RANGE IN THE 60S
WHILE 70S ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT FRIDAY...

A DRY CLIPPER FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE SHALLOW AND NOT THICK ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE MEASURABLE RAINFALL. HOWEVER...WITH A MOIST WEST
WIND...CLOUDS WILL BE BANKED UP AGAINST WESTERN SLOPES SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AND UPSLOPE
COMPONENT...WILL HAVE DRIZZLE AS THE PRIMARY P-TYPE AND REDUCE THE
CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL. SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY ADVANCE TO
THE BLUE RIDGE SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WITH WESTERLY FLOW INTO A
RELATIVE DRY AIR...DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE TO MOVE
EAST OF RNK EXTREME WESTERN SLOPES. DRY FALL FRONTAL PASSAGES
TYPICAL RESULT IN BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS FOR LOCATIONS SEEING
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THIS WILL BE TRUE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING THE WINDS TO RELAX THROUGH THE EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA MONDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW A WARM
FRONT TO TRACK OVER THE REGION. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS WARM
FRONT.

DESPITE A COLD FRONT TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 60S ALONG UPSLOPE AREAS TO THE MID 70S EAST. THE PASSING OF A
WARM FRONT ON MONDAY WILL BRING EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES
MONDAY...70S AREAWIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT THURSDAY...

THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
FOR ONE MORE DAY...WHICH WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PROMOTE GENEROUS WARM AIR
ADVECTION...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY HITTING 80 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT
BASED ON MOS GUIDANCE. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE
DURING TUESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS WERE KEPT MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT
COULD SLOW DOWN WHILE CROSSING THE CWA...BUT THE QPF IS NOT
IMPRESSIVE...ALTHOUGH THE GFS SHOWS HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN THE ECMWF.

SURPRISINGLY...THE 00Z ECMWF IS A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN
THE 12Z GFS WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...WHEN THE TYPICAL BIAS
BETWEEN THESE MODELS IS THE OTHER WAY. THEY EVENTUALLY AGREE ON
STALLING THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE CWA DURING THURSDAY. THE DIURNAL
RANGE OF TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WAS KEPT SMALLER
AND IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE...AS CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWERS SHOULD LIMIT THE SPREAD BETWEEN HIGHS AND LOWS.
THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY BY FRIDAY. THE ECMWF
DEPICTS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE GFS PORTRAYS A SLOWER SOLUTION WITH A
FLATTER TROUGH. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WHICH COULD BE MOST NOTABLE ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES...HAVE BEEN MENTIONED FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1209 PM EDT FRIDAY...

EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS AND MAINLY SOUTHWEST FLOW UNDER 10KTS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES BECOME CLEAR WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT. MODELS SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR MVFR FOG LATE TONIGHT AT BLF
AND LWB...NONE ELSEWHERE.

ANY FOG SATURDAY WILL DISSIPATE BY 10A. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW-END MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR ALONG WESTERN SLOPES
(BLF-LWB) TO HIGH-END MVFR AT BCB AS A CLIPPER FRONT TRACKS ACROSS
THE REGION. AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE (ROA-LYH-DAN) WILL REMAIN
VFR. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS
LIKELY FOR ALL SITES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

DRY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LOWER
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSING OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ011>017.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ001-002-
     018.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ044-507.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...RCS
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...RCS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 241953
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
353 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY IN PLACE FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
SOUTHWEST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH COMING THROUGH MAINLY DRY...BUT WITH SOME GUSTY
WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PASS ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH BROUGHT HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE REGION
TODAY...WILL PIVOT OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...MOVING TO
THE EAST COAST BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. AN AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING...LIGHT WINDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES MAY ALLOW
FROST TO FORM IN DEEP MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS IS NOT IDEAL FOR WIDESPREAD FROST TO FORM...BUT ENOUGH
TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY. FYI...THE GROWING SEASON FOR THE MOUNTAINS
OF SOUTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA AND THE
NORTH CAROLINA HIGHLANDS WILL END SATURDAY. UNTIL THE GROWING
SEASON BEGINS NEXT SPRING...THIS WILL BE THE LAST FROST
ADVISORY/FREEZE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE RNK MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

A DRY CLIPPER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
A FEW CLOUDS WILL ENTER THE MOUNTAINS BUT NO RAIN IS EXPECTED. AS
TYPICAL WITH DRY FALL FRONTS...BREEZY/GUSTS CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.

MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S TONIGHT WHILE
RIDGES REMAIN MILD NEAR 40F. IN THE EAST...TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL BRING WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
THE AREA SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST WILL RANGE IN THE 60S
WHILE 70S ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT FRIDAY...

A DRY CLIPPER FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE SHALLOW AND NOT THICK ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE MEASURABLE RAINFALL. HOWEVER...WITH A MOIST WEST
WIND...CLOUDS WILL BE BANKED UP AGAINST WESTERN SLOPES SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AND UPSLOPE
COMPONENT...WILL HAVE DRIZZLE AS THE PRIMARY P-TYPE AND REDUCE THE
CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL. SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY ADVANCE TO
THE BLUE RIDGE SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WITH WESTERLY FLOW INTO A
RELATIVE DRY AIR...DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE TO MOVE
EAST OF RNK EXTREME WESTERN SLOPES. DRY FALL FRONTAL PASSAGES
TYPICAL RESULT IN BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS FOR LOCATIONS SEEING
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THIS WILL BE TRUE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING THE WINDS TO RELAX THROUGH THE EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA MONDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW A WARM
FRONT TO TRACK OVER THE REGION. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS WARM
FRONT.

DESPITE A COLD FRONT TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 60S ALONG UPSLOPE AREAS TO THE MID 70S EAST. THE PASSING OF A
WARM FRONT ON MONDAY WILL BRING EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES
MONDAY...70S AREAWIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT THURSDAY...

THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
FOR ONE MORE DAY...WHICH WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PROMOTE GENEROUS WARM AIR
ADVECTION...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY HITTING 80 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT
BASED ON MOS GUIDANCE. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE
DURING TUESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS WERE KEPT MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT
COULD SLOW DOWN WHILE CROSSING THE CWA...BUT THE QPF IS NOT
IMPRESSIVE...ALTHOUGH THE GFS SHOWS HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN THE ECMWF.

SURPRISINGLY...THE 00Z ECMWF IS A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN
THE 12Z GFS WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...WHEN THE TYPICAL BIAS
BETWEEN THESE MODELS IS THE OTHER WAY. THEY EVENTUALLY AGREE ON
STALLING THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE CWA DURING THURSDAY. THE DIURNAL
RANGE OF TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WAS KEPT SMALLER
AND IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE...AS CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWERS SHOULD LIMIT THE SPREAD BETWEEN HIGHS AND LOWS.
THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY BY FRIDAY. THE ECMWF
DEPICTS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE GFS PORTRAYS A SLOWER SOLUTION WITH A
FLATTER TROUGH. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WHICH COULD BE MOST NOTABLE ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES...HAVE BEEN MENTIONED FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1209 PM EDT FRIDAY...

EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS AND MAINLY SOUTHWEST FLOW UNDER 10KTS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES BECOME CLEAR WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT. MODELS SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR MVFR FOG LATE TONIGHT AT BLF
AND LWB...NONE ELSEWHERE.

ANY FOG SATURDAY WILL DISSIPATE BY 10A. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW-END MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR ALONG WESTERN SLOPES
(BLF-LWB) TO HIGH-END MVFR AT BCB AS A CLIPPER FRONT TRACKS ACROSS
THE REGION. AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE (ROA-LYH-DAN) WILL REMAIN
VFR. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS
LIKELY FOR ALL SITES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

DRY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LOWER
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSING OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ011>017.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ001-002-
     018.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ044-507.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...RCS
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...RCS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 241904
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
304 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN DRIFTS OFF THE
COAST SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO AND OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH MOVES OVR THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE MODELS TRACK A QUICK MOVING
S/W SE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXITING OFF THE SERN
COAST SAT MORNING. HIGH LVL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS
THE FA THRU THE NIGHT. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S XCPT U30S WRN MOST
AREAS TO NR 50 SERN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRS SHIFTS OFFSHORE SAT WITH MODELS SUGGESTING A LEE TROF
DVLPNG OUT AHEAD OF THE APPRCHG CDFRNT. TSCTNS SHOW A DRY COLUMN
ALONG WITH A W-NW DOWNSLOPING FLOW. UPSHOT WILL BE ANTHR DRY DAY
WITH ONLY SCT CLOUDS AT BEST. HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 70.

DRY COLD FRNTL PASSAGE SAT NIGHT. SKIES AVG PT CLDY. LOWS M40S-L50S.

HIGH PRESSURE SYSTMS BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
EXPCT AMPL SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS. DOWNSLOPE WIND WILL HELP TO BOOST
HIGHS BTWN 70-75 BOTH DAYS. LOWS SUN NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 40S XCPT
U30S WRN MOST AREAS TO L50S SERN BEACH AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MILD/WARM TO START IN EXTENDED THEN TRENDING COOLER BY THE END. HI
PRES SFC-ALOFT RMNS INVOF SE AND MDATLC CSTS MON NGT THROUGH TUE
BEFORE SHIFTING E ALLOWING BROAD TROUGH (ALOFT) TO SETTLE FM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE ERN STATES. CDFNT WILL APPROACH FM THE WNW
WED...THEN PUSH ACRS THE FA WED NGT INTO THU AFTN. W/ THE FNT...XPCG
PDS OF CLDNS AND (RIGHT NOW) A LO CHC POP (FOR SHRAS). AHEAD OF THE
FNT...MILD/WARM SWLY FLO AND SKC-PCLDY...THEN VRB CLDS FM LT WED
INTO FRI AS AIR TURNS COOLER (ON RETURN OF NNW WNDS).

HI TEMPS TUE RANGING THROUGH THE 70S (MAYBE L80S OVR INTERIOR
SECTIONS)...THEN L/M70S WED...AND MNLY IN THE 60S THU/FRI. LO TEMPS
IN THE 50S IN THE L/M50S MON NGT...M/U50S TUE NGT...L/M50S WED
NGT...THEN M40S TO L50S THU NGT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE
NOSES INTO THE AREA CREATING LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS. A WEAK
UPPER WAVE WILL PASS OVER THE AREA SAT...BRINGING ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS
TO THE MID-ATLANTIC.

OUTLOOK: A DRY COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE EASTERN US BY
SUNDAY MORNING. VFR CONDS CONTINUE TO PERSIST SAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL ALLOW SCAS TO EXPIRE AT 20Z/24 FOR ALL BUT FAR NRN OCN ZONE
(DUE TO SEAS HOVERING ARND 5 FT). NW WNDS CONT INTO SAT W/ SPEEDS
LWRG (GRADUALLY). NEXT PSBL PD OF SCA LT SAT NGT INTO SUN NGT W/
CDFNTL PASSAGE AND LO LVL CAA (IN ITS WAKE) AS W WNDS BECOME NW.
SPEEDS LWRG AGAIN ON MON...THEN BECOME SW MON NGT CONTG THROUGH WED
(WHILE RMNG BLO SCA THRESHOLDS).

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CONCERN SUNDAY AFTRN WILL BE FOR BREEZY/WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE AREAS. MIXED LAYER DP TMPS PROGGED
INTO THE L-M30S BY 18Z SUNDAY RESULTING IN RH VALUES ARND 30% ALONG
WITH GUSTY NW WINDS BTWN 15-25 MPH. THUS...AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT MAY BE NEEDED IF THE 10 HR FUEL MOISTURES DROP BLO 10%.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...ALB
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...ALB
FIRE WEATHER...MPR







000
FXUS61 KLWX 241845
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
245 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH SATURDAY. A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROUND THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
MOVE ACROSS THE SE US TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
INTO THE APPALACHIAN REGION OF THE MID-ATLANTIC WHILE LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE NRN ATLANTIC MOVES AWAY.

NW WINDS 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE A PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL
EXISTS BETWEEN THE TWO SFC FEATURES. THIS GRADIENT WILL MOVE
EASTWARD TONIGHT AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH. ONLY MID-HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. FCST MIN TEMPS AROUND 40 DEG ARE EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FURTHER INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY WHILE
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE SC/GA COAST. MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH W-SW WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. A
DRY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE ALLEGHENY FRONT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVC CONDTIONS ARE EXPECTED IN UPSLOPE LOCATIONS. FCST MAX
TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY...FRIDAY...MID TO UPPER
60S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAVEL ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA.
THIS FRONT WILL BE VERY WEAK IN NATURE AS THE MOISTURE AND FORCING
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO OUR NORTH. CONDITIONS MAY BE
FAVORABLE FOR UPSLOPE SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...BUT GIVEN THE SHALLOW
NATURE OF THE MOISTURE...WOULD EXPECT ANY AMOUNTS TO BE VERY LIGHT.
ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL SHOULD BE IN LIQUID FORM AS
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR 40 IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MUCH IN THE
WAY OF CLOUD COVER MAY BE DIFFICULT TO COME BY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST WILL RESULT IN A
BREEZY SUNDAY WITH GOOD MIXING. MINIMAL THERMAL DIFFERENCES BEHIND
THE FRONT...PLENTIFUL SUN AND A DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO SATURDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT AND WITH A DRY ATMOSPHERE...
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP. HAVE
MID-UPPER 30S WEST OF THE METROS BUT FEEL THESE AREAS COULD SNEAK A
FEW DEGREES COOLER. MENTION OF PATCHY FROST HAS BEEN MAINTAINED IN
THESE AREAS. MID 40S CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE METROS. THE HIGH WILL
SLIDE TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST ON MONDAY WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING EXPANDING TOWARD THE EAST COAST. MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE
HIGHS NEAR OR ABOVE 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ECMWF INDICATES THAT A SHORTWAVE FROM NORTHERN PLAINS CROSSING GREAT
LAKES BY LATE TUESDAY. 500MB TROUGH AND WEAK PVA CROSSING CWA
WEDNESDAY. NEXT SHORTWAVE TO CROSS CWA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
SURFACE FRONT FROM WEST WILL CROSS THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. ANOTHER FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL AFFECT THE CWA
FROM LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CERTAINTY REMAINS LOW THIS
FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH ECMWF TIMING SEEMS TO TRACK
FAIRLY WELL WITH HPC ENSEMBLE HPC INDICATES THAT PATTERN WILL
PRODUCE LESS PRECIPITATION THAN ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NW WINDS 10-15 KTS G 20KTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. NW WINDS WILL
BECOME NW-W 5-10 KTS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TODAY...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE
REGION.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. GUSTY NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AS A
PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS OVERHEAD. MIXING WILL SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC AND MD
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM PT AS GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST THE
LONGEST IN THESE SPOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
ALL THE WATERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES FOR THE LOWER
PORTIONS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NEAR THE WATERS TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY AND W-NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED BUT WILL STAY BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS BY SUNDAY AND NW WINDS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS. A SCA IS LIKELY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST LATER MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE DURING THIS
TIME. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>533-535-536-538>542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ534-537-
     543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...HAS
MARINE...HAS








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 241740
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
140 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO AND OVER THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LO PRES WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND CANADIAN
MARITIMES CSTS TODAY INTO THIS EVENG...AS HI PRES BLDS INTO THE
AREA FM THE OH VALLEY. UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY...MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE
FM THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HI PRES WILL BLD OVER THE REGION AND JUST OFFSHR TNGT THRU
SAT...MAINTAINING DRY AUTUMN WX. CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR TNGT WITH LOWS
RANGING THRU THE 40S. MOSTLY SUNNY ON SAT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR
60S TO LWR 70S. A WEAK/DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SAT NGT.
THIS FRONT WILL DO LITTLE MORE THAN INCREASE WINDS FM THE NW ON
SUN...WHILE LOTS OF SUNSHINE WILL CONTINUE. LOWS SAT NGT RANGING
FM THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S. HIGHS ON SUN RANGING FM THE UPR 60S TO
MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL BE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY AND THEN SLIDES OFF THE
COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE
DRY/RAIN-FREE. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD...TEMPS WILL BEGIN
TO WARM INTO THE LOW-MID 70S DURING THE DAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL
LIKELY EXPERIENCE A MUCH SLOWER WARMING TREND WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE
40S SUN NIGHT (LOW-MID 50S BEACHES)...IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S
MON NIGHT (MID 50S BEACHES)...AND IN THE 50S TUE NIGHT. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT TO IMPACT THE MID ATLANTIC REGION IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE AREA LATE WED NIGHT. EXPECT CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES WITH
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS WEDNESDAY
PROGRESSES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE
NOSES INTO THE AREA CREATING LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS. A WEAK
UPPER WAVE WILL PASS OVER THE AREA SAT...BRINGING ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS
TO THE MID-ATLANTIC.

OUTLOOK: A DRY COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE EASTERN US BY
SUNDAY MORNING. VFR CONDS CONTINUE TO PERSIST SAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT NW FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS ~15-20KT. SEAS 3-5FT
(HIGHEST NORTH) WITH WAVES 3FT ON THE CHES BAY. VERT STACKED,
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE TOWARDS ATLANTIC
CANADA THROUGH EARLY AFTN. MEANWHILE, SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD WEST OF THE WATERS TODAY. RESULTANT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
SLOWLY SLACKEN TODAY AS HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION, RESULTING IN
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. SCA FLAGS COME
DOWN BY AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUND/BAY. OVER THE COASTAL WATERS,
WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH AFOREMENTIONED SLACKENING GRADIENT. GIVEN
THAT WIND WAVES ARE KEEPING SEAS ELEVATED THIS MORNING, EXPECT
SEAS/WAVES SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT PRES GRADIENT WILL BE
SLOWEST TO RELAX OVER THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS. THUS, HAVE HELD
ONTO SCA FLAGS UNTIL EARLY EVENING NORTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE, WITH SCA
FLAGS DROPPING FARTHER SOUTH BY THIS AFTN.

A WEAK TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE WATERS ON SATURDAY, WITH SUB-SCA
WINDS OUT OF THE NNW EXPECTED TO BACK AROUND TO THE SW SATURDAY AFTN
IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH. WINDS THEN VEER BACK TO THE
NW AFTER IT CROSSES THE AREA SAT NGT/SUNDAY MORNING. ONLY A MODEST
POST FRONTAL CAA SURGE SUNDAY, SO EXPECT WINDS TO AVERAGE AOB 15 KT,
THOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
E-SE BY LATE MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
WATERS...EVENTUALLY SLIDING FARTHER OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...BMD/JEF
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...MAM







000
FXUS61 KRNK 241709
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
109 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY IN PLACE FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
SOUTHWEST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH COMING THROUGH MAINLY DRY...BUT WITH SOME GUSTY
WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PASS ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1130 AM EDT FRIDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP CIRRUS CLOUDS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA INTO THIS EVENING. THE THICKER CIRRUS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND WILL REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF WARMING
THIS AFTERNOON BY A FEW DEGREES. THINNER AND HOLES IN THE CLOUDS
IN THE EAST SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S
TO LOW 70S.


AS OF 255 AM EDT FRIDAY...

DIGGING SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN OFF THE SC
COAST LATE TONIGHT. MAINLY SEEING HIGH CLOUDS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL AT THE SFC. WE STAY DRY THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE ONLY
ISSUE BEING A BIT OF FOG THIS MORNING IN THE MTNS...AND FROST
POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT. WITH THE SFC HIGH OVER SOUTHWEST WV BY 12Z
SATURDAY...AND LEANING TOWARD THE NAM/GFS MOS...WILL SEE PATCHY
FROST OVER THE MTN VALLEYS SATURDAY MORNING. COVERAGE IS NOT
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY...BUT WILL
POTENTIAL IS THERE.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT A MILD LATE OCTOBER DAY WITH SUNSHINE DIMMED BY
HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S MTNS TO
LOWER 70S PIEDMONT.

TONIGHT...SKIES CLEAR OUT LATE THIS EVENING...WITH POSSIBLY SOME
STRATOCU BANKED UP OVER THE MTNS OF GREENBRIER LATE. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM MID 30S MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN
PEAKS AS WELL AS PLACES LIKE ROANOKE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR MOST OF
SATURDAY. WILL START THE DAY WILL ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FOR THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE EVENING AS A
CLIPPER COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS OUR
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE UPSLOPE
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BRING A SHOT OF STRONGER WINDS THAT WILL
LAST FROM EARLY SUNDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING AS
ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS OUR AREA FROM THE WEST.
AS MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT...EXPECT CLOUDS TO
DECREASE RAPIDLY DURING SUNDAY MORNING FROM EAST TO WEST...MAKING
FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS OUR ARE SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW TO THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. COMBINE THAT
WILL UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST...AND EXPECT
MONDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 70S MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FOR TUESDAY MAINTAINING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S MOUNTAINS...AND WELL INTO THE 70S PIEDMONT. NEXT
CHC OF SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY A FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE WEDNESDAY-
THURSDAY TIME FRAME. WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES...NO
THREAT OF FROST NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1209 PM EDT FRIDAY...

EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS AND MAINLY SOUTHWEST FLOW UNDER 10KTS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES BECOME CLEAR WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT. MODELS SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR MVFR FOG LATE TONIGHT AT BLF
AND LWB...NONE ELSEWHERE.

ANY FOG SATURDAY WILL DISSIPATE BY 10A. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW-END MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR ALONG WESTERN SLOPES
(BLF-LWB) TO HIGH-END MVFR AT BCB AS A CLIPPER FRONT TRACKS ACROSS
THE REGION. AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE (ROA-LYH-DAN) WILL REMAIN
VFR. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS
LIKELY FOR ALL SITES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

DRY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LOWER
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSING OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...RCS/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...PH
AVIATION...RCS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 241531
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1131 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY IN PLACE FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
SOUTHWEST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH COMING THROUGH MAINLY DRY...BUT WITH SOME GUSTY
WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PASS ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1130 AM EDT FRIDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP CIRRUS CLOUDS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA INTO THIS EVENING. THE THICKER CIRRUS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND WILL REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF WARMING
THIS AFTERNOON BY A FEW DEGREES. THINNER AND HOLES IN THE CLOUDS
IN THE EAST SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S
TO LOW 70S.


AS OF 255 AM EDT FRIDAY...

DIGGING SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN OFF THE SC
COAST LATE TONIGHT. MAINLY SEEING HIGH CLOUDS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL AT THE SFC. WE STAY DRY THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE ONLY
ISSUE BEING A BIT OF FOG THIS MORNING IN THE MTNS...AND FROST
POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT. WITH THE SFC HIGH OVER SOUTHWEST WV BY 12Z
SATURDAY...AND LEANING TOWARD THE NAM/GFS MOS...WILL SEE PATCHY
FROST OVER THE MTN VALLEYS SATURDAY MORNING. COVERAGE IS NOT
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY...BUT WILL
POTENTIAL IS THERE.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT A MILD LATE OCTOBER DAY WITH SUNSHINE DIMMED BY
HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S MTNS TO
LOWER 70S PIEDMONT.

TONIGHT...SKIES CLEAR OUT LATE THIS EVENING...WITH POSSIBLY SOME
STRATOCU BANKED UP OVER THE MTNS OF GREENBRIER LATE. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM MID 30S MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN
PEAKS AS WELL AS PLACES LIKE ROANOKE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR MOST OF
SATURDAY. WILL START THE DAY WILL ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FOR THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE EVENING AS A
CLIPPER COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS OUR
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE UPSLOPE
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BRING A SHOT OF STRONGER WINDS THAT WILL
LAST FROM EARLY SUNDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING AS
ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS OUR AREA FROM THE WEST.
AS MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT...EXPECT CLOUDS TO
DECREASE RAPIDLY DURING SUNDAY MORNING FROM EAST TO WEST...MAKING
FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS OUR ARE SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW TO THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. COMBINE THAT
WILL UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST...AND EXPECT
MONDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 70S MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FOR TUESDAY MAINTAINING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S MOUNTAINS...AND WELL INTO THE 70S PIEDMONT. NEXT
CHC OF SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY A FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE WEDNESDAY-
THURSDAY TIME FRAME. WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES...NO
THREAT OF FROST NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 734 AM EDT FRIDAY...

SOME FOG AT LWB THIS MORNING WHICH SHOULD BE GONE BY 12Z. EXPECT
HIGH CLOUDS TODAY THEN CLEARING TONIGHT. VFR FOR THE VALID PERIOD.
MODELS SHOWING POTENTIAL FOG AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AT BLF...LWB BUT
THINK THE AIRMASS MAY BE DRY ENOUGH TO PREVENT IT FOR NOW...SO
MENTION IN TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY...THOUGH SOME LOW LVL
CLOUDINESS MAY IMPACT BLF/LWB BEHIND A FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT.
SHOULD ALSO BE BREEZY SUNDAY BEHIND THIS FRONT...WITH GUSTS UP TO
30 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...RCS/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...PH
AVIATION...DS/RCS/WP




000
FXUS61 KLWX 241357
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
957 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH SATURDAY. A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY. A TIGHT
PRESSURE STILL EXISTS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOOKOUT AREA.
NW WINDS 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE TODAY IN
THIS AREA. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT
MOVES EASTWARD.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE TN VALLEY THIS
MORNING AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY. MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL STREAM INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
TODAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH FCST MAX TEMPS REACHING
THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

PREV DISCUSSION...
THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP ITS INFLUENCES AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLC
BUT WILL HELP TO USHER-IN THE MORE CALMING EFFECT OF AN UPPER
MIDWEST HIGH. AFTER THE SFC FLOW DISSIPATES POST-SUNSET
TONIGHT...DEWPOINTS WILL SLOWLY REBOUND AGAIN INTO THE 40S...FOR
ANOTHER REL MILD TEMP RANGE FOR OUR OVERNIGHT LOWS. APPLIED A
BIAS-CORRECTED MET/MEX FOR TODAY`S HIGH/LOW TEMP GRIDS. ALSO
MODIFIED WINDS IN THE NEAR/SHORT TERMS W/ NEWER HI-RES WRK
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE NOSE OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL MAKE A QUICK ENTRANCE ON
SAT...SLAMMING UP AGAINST THE EXITING UPPER LEVEL JET FROM THE
OFFSHORE LOW. THIS FAST UPPER NW FLOW WILL START TO BRING IN THE
CLOUD COVER TO THE MTNS ON SAT...BUT LEAVE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
FAIRLY DRY AND CLEAR UNTIL LATER IN THE EVE. BEING ON THE RIGHT-EXIT
DOWNWARD MOTION SIDE OF THE UPPER JET WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND. WEAK BUT STEADY DOWNSLOPING FLOW MAY HELP BRING
TEMPS UP A FEW MORE DEG...PEAKING IN THE M-U60S - POSSIBLY JUST
ABOVE 70F FOR SAT AFTN.

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH EASTERN CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA ON SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. LITTLE FORCING AND LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT. THEREFORE...MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH JUST
A FEW CLOUDS NEAR THE BOUNDARY. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT DUE TO AN UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT EVEN
ACROSS THESE AREAS ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT. LEANED TOWARD
THE WARMER GUIDANCE SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO SOME CLOUD COVER AND A
GRADIENT WIND HOLDING OFF ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING. MIN TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM NEAR 40 ALONG THE RIDGE TOPS OF THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...BUT THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN STRONG BETWEEN THE APPROACHING
HIGH AND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN BREEZY CONDITIONS.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. SUNSHINE AND A DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL
OFFSET ANY WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION...ALLOWING FOR MAX TEMPS TO BE
ABOVE CLIMO. OF COURSE...THE MILD CONDITIONS MAY BE OFFSET BY THE
GUSTY WINDS. LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...WITH MAX
TEMPS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MIDDLE
70S ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO SOUTHERN MARYLAND. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT...CAUSING WINDS TO DIMINISH.
LIGHT WINDS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PROVIDE A
GOOD SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THEREFORE...MIN TEMPS SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY...RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 30S ACROSS NORTHERN
MARYLAND AND FOR LOCATIONS NEAR AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS...TO THE MIDDLE 40S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.
FROST IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A
SOUTHERLY WIND WILL ALLOW FOR MILDER CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME.
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...AND IT WILL STALL OUT NEARBY FOR LATER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME...BUT
CERTAINTY REMAINS LOW THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANOTHER BREEZY AFTN TODAY BUT A TIER LOWER IN TERMS OF PEAK
GUSTS...WHERE 15-25KT WILL BE FAIRLY COMMON FROM AFTER SUNRISE.
SEVERAL MORE HEADING INTO THE DAYTIME HRS...OF THE STEADY BREEZE
TODAY. WINDS WILL THEN QUICKLY DROP OFF TOWARD SUNSET. HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUE STRENGTHENING OVER THE AREA INTO SAT.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET SUNDAY EVENING...AND LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE COAST. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER JUST OFF THE COAST INTO THE LATE
NIGHT HRS TONIGHT...KEEPING BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA UNTIL
LATER THIS EVE. SCA CONTINUED FOR ALL THE WATERS TODAY.

A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST LATER MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE DURING THIS
TIME. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...GMS/HAS
SHORT TERM...BJL/GMS
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/GMS
MARINE...BJL/GMS








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 241356
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
956 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO AND OVER THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LO PRES WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND CANADIAN
MARITIMES CSTS TODAY INTO THIS EVENG...AS HI PRES BLDS INTO THE
AREA FM THE OH VALLEY. UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY...MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE
FM THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HI PRES WILL BLD OVER THE REGION AND JUST OFFSHR TNGT THRU
SAT...MAINTAINING DRY AUTUMN WX. CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR TNGT WITH LOWS
RANGING THRU THE 40S. MOSTLY SUNNY ON SAT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR
60S TO LWR 70S. A WEAK/DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SAT NGT.
THIS FRONT WILL DO LITTLE MORE THAN INCREASE WINDS FM THE NW ON
SUN...WHILE LOTS OF SUNSHINE WILL CONTINUE. LOWS SAT NGT RANGING
FM THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S. HIGHS ON SUN RANGING FM THE UPR 60S TO
MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL BE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY AND THEN SLIDES OFF THE
COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE
DRY/RAIN-FREE. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD...TEMPS WILL BEGIN
TO WARM INTO THE LOW-MID 70S DURING THE DAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL
LIKELY EXPERIENCE A MUCH SLOWER WARMING TREND WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE
40S SUN NIGHT (LOW-MID 50S BEACHES)...IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S
MON NIGHT (MID 50S BEACHES)...AND IN THE 50S TUE NIGHT. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT TO IMPACT THE MID ATLANTIC REGION IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE AREA LATE WED NIGHT. EXPECT CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES WITH
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS WEDNESDAY
PROGRESSES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LTL MORE THAN
SOME SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 12 KFT AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. OTHERWISE, DEEP LOW PRES
SYS NOW EAST OF CAPE COD WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE TOWARD ATLANTIC
CANADA TODAY, EVENTUALLY LOCATING EAST OF MAINE BY THIS AFTN. PRES
GRADIENT HAS SLACKENED AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE FALLEN OFF OVER THE
CWA. NW WINDS 8-12 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK: VFR CONDS LOOK TO PERSIST TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION...EVENTUALLY SLIDING
OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT NW FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING ~15-20KT,
WITH SOME HIGHER WINDS ~25KT PERSISTING AT ELEVATED TERMINALS. SEAS
5-7FT (HIGHEST NORTH) WITH WAVES 3-5FT ON THE CHES BAY. VERT
STACKED, DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE TOWARDS
ATLANTIC CANADA THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTN. MEANWHILE, SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST OF THE WATERS TODAY. RESULTANT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY SLACKEN TODAY AS HIGH BUILDS INTO
THE REGION, RESULTING IN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS THROUGH
TONIGHT. SCA FLAGS COME DOWN OVER THE RIVERS LATER THIS MORNING
AND BY AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUND/BAY. OVER THE COASTAL WATERS,
WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH AFOREMENTIONED SLACKENING GRADIENT. GIVEN
THAT WIND WAVES ARE KEEPING SEAS ELEVATED THIS MORNING, EXPECT
SEAS/WAVES SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT PRES GRADIENT WILL BE
SLOWEST TO RELAX OVER THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS. THUS, HAVE HELD
ONTO SCA FLAGS UNTIL EARLY EVENING NORTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE, WITH SCA
FLAGS DROPPING FARTHER SOUTH BY THIS AFTN.

A WEAK TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE WATERS ON SATURDAY, WITH SUB-SCA
WINDS OUT OF THE NNW EXPECTED TO BACK AROUND TO THE SW SATURDAY AFTN
IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH. WINDS THEN VEER BACK TO THE
NW AFTER IT CROSSES THE AREA SAT NGT/SUNDAY MORNING. ONLY A MODEST
POST FRONTAL CAA SURGE SUNDAY, SO EXPECT WINDS TO AVERAGE AOB 15 KT,
THOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
E-SE BY LATE MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
WATERS...EVENTUALLY SLIDING FARTHER OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633-
     638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...BMD/JEF
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM







000
FXUS61 KRNK 241144
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
744 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY IN PLACE FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
SOUTHWEST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH COMING THROUGH MAINLY DRY...BUT WITH SOME GUSTY
WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PASS ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM EDT FRIDAY...

DIGGING SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN OFF THE SC
COAST LATE TONIGHT. MAINLY SEEING HIGH CLOUDS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL AT THE SFC. WE STAY DRY THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE ONLY
ISSUE BEING A BIT OF FOG THIS MORNING IN THE MTNS...AND FROST
POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT. WITH THE SFC HIGH OVER SOUTHWEST WV BY 12Z
SATURDAY...AND LEANING TOWARD THE NAM/GFS MOS...WILL SEE PATCHY
FROST OVER THE MTN VALLEYS SATURDAY MORNING. COVERAGE IS NOT
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY...BUT WILL
POTENTIAL IS THERE.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT A MILD LATE OCTOBER DAY WITH SUNSHINE DIMMED BY
HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S MTNS TO
LOWER 70S PIEDMONT.

TONIGHT...SKIES CLEAR OUT LATE THIS EVENING...WITH POSSIBLY SOME
STRATOCU BANKED UP OVER THE MTNS OF GREENBRIER LATE. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM MID 30S MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN
PEAKS AS WELL AS PLACES LIKE ROANOKE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR MOST OF
SATURDAY. WILL START THE DAY WILL ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FOR THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE EVENING AS A
CLIPPER COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS OUR
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE UPSLOPE
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BRING A SHOT OF STRONGER WINDS THAT WILL
LAST FROM EARLY SUNDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING AS
ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS OUR AREA FROM THE WEST.
AS MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT...EXPECT CLOUDS TO
DECREASE RAPIDLY DURING SUNDAY MORNING FROM EAST TO WEST...MAKING
FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS OUR ARE SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW TO THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. COMBINE THAT
WILL UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST...AND EXPECT
MONDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 70S MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FOR TUESDAY MAINTAINING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S MOUNTAINS...AND WELL INTO THE 70S PIEDMONT. NEXT
CHC OF SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY A FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE WEDNESDAY-
THURSDAY TIME FRAME. WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES...NO
THREAT OF FROST NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 734 AM EDT FRIDAY...

SOME FOG AT LWB THIS MORNING WHICH SHOULD BE GONE BY 12Z. EXPECT
HIGH CLOUDS TODAY THEN CLEARING TONIGHT. VFR FOR THE VALID PERIOD.
MODELS SHOWING POTENTIAL FOG AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AT BLF...LWB BUT
THINK THE AIRMASS MAY BE DRY ENOUGH TO PREVENT IT FOR NOW...SO
MENTION IN TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY...THOUGH SOME LOW LVL
CLOUDINESS MAY IMPACT BLF/LWB BEHIND A FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT.
SHOULD ALSO BE BREEZY SUNDAY BEHIND THIS FRONT...WITH GUSTS UP TO
30 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...PH
AVIATION...DS/RCS/WP




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 241106
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
706 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO AND OVER THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LO PRES WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND CANADIAN
MARITIMES CSTS TODAY INTO THIS EVENG...AS HI PRES BLDS INTO THE
AREA FM THE OH VALLEY. UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY...MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE
FM THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HI PRES WILL BLD OVER THE REGION AND JUST OFFSHR TNGT THRU
SAT...MAINTAINING DRY AUTUMN WX. CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR TNGT WITH LOWS
RANGING THRU THE 40S. MOSTLY SUNNY ON SAT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR
60S TO LWR 70S. A WEAK/DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SAT NGT.
THIS FRONT WILL DO LITTLE MORE THAN INCREASE WINDS FM THE NW ON
SUN...WHILE LOTS OF SUNSHINE WILL CONTINUE. LOWS SAT NGT RANGING
FM THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S. HIGHS ON SUN RANGING FM THE UPR 60S TO
MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL BE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY AND THEN SLIDES OFF THE
COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE
DRY/RAIN-FREE. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD...TEMPS WILL BEGIN
TO WARM INTO THE LOW-MID 70S DURING THE DAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL
LIKELY EXPERIENCE A MUCH SLOWER WARMING TREND WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE
40S SUN NIGHT (LOW-MID 50S BEACHES)...IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S
MON NIGHT (MID 50S BEACHES)...AND IN THE 50S TUE NIGHT. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT TO IMPACT THE MID ATLANTIC REGION IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE AREA LATE WED NIGHT. EXPECT CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES WITH
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS WEDNESDAY
PROGRESSES.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LTL MORE THAN
SOME SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 12 KFT AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. OTHERWISE, DEEP LOW PRES
SYS NOW EAST OF CAPE COD WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE TOWARD ATLANTIC
CANADA TODAY, EVENTUALLY LOCATING EAST OF MAINE BY THIS AFTN. PRES
GRADIENT HAS SLACKENED AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE FALLEN OFF OVER THE
CWA. NW WINDS 8-12 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK: VFR CONDS LOOK TO PERSIST TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION...EVENTUALLY SLIDING
OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT NW FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING ~15-20KT,
WITH SOME HIGHER WINDS ~25KT PERSISTING AT ELEVATED TERMINALS. SEAS
5-7FT (HIGHEST NORTH) WITH WAVES 3-5FT ON THE CHES BAY. VERT
STACKED, DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE TOWARDS
ATLANTIC CANADA THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTN. MEANWHILE, SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST OF THE WATERS TODAY. RESULTANT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY SLACKEN TODAY AS HIGH BUILDS INTO
THE REGION, RESULTING IN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS THROUGH
TONIGHT. SCA FLAGS COME DOWN OVER THE RIVERS LATER THIS MORNING
AND BY AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUND/BAY. OVER THE COASTAL WATERS,
WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH AFOREMENTIONED SLACKENING GRADIENT. GIVEN
THAT WIND WAVES ARE KEEPING SEAS ELEVATED THIS MORNING, EXPECT
SEAS/WAVES SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT PRES GRADIENT WILL BE
SLOWEST TO RELAX OVER THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS. THUS, HAVE HELD
ONTO SCA FLAGS UNTIL EARLY EVENING NORTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE, WITH SCA
FLAGS DROPPING FARTHER SOUTH BY THIS AFTN.

A WEAK TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE WATERS ON SATURDAY, WITH SUB-SCA
WINDS OUT OF THE NNW EXPECTED TO BACK AROUND TO THE SW SATURDAY AFTN
IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH. WINDS THEN VEER BACK TO THE
NW AFTER IT CROSSES THE AREA SAT NGT/SUNDAY MORNING. ONLY A MODEST
POST FRONTAL CAA SURGE SUNDAY, SO EXPECT WINDS TO AVERAGE AOB 15 KT,
THOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
E-SE BY LATE MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
WATERS...EVENTUALLY SLIDING FARTHER OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...BMD/JEF
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM








000
FXUS61 KLWX 241012 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
612 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH SATURDAY. A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...STARTED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL THE WATERS NOW -
THAT WAS TO GO INTO EFFECT AT 9AM. GUSTS BEGINNING TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA W/ LITTLE...IF ANY DISSIPATION THRU THE
POST-DAWN HRS.

PREV DISC...
AN UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX RIBBON HELPING MIX-DOWN THE GUSTY WINDS ATTM
AND WILL CONTINUE HOVERING OVER THE AREA INTO THE POST-DAWN HRS THIS
MRNG. OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN THE 20-25KT RANGE...W/ OVERALL SFC WINDS
AT A STEADY 10-15KT CLIP OUT OF THE NW. THE EXITING AND SLOW-MOVING
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM FROM A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO STILL HANGING AROUND
NEW ENGLAND...E OF THE HUDSON RVR/ERN NY. THE VORT MAX MERELY
SWINGING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW...BEING PULLED ALONG
BY THE SYSTEM...NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE MUCH EWD PROGRESS IN THE COMING
HRS. FOR THIS REASON...WINDS WILL STAY FAIRLY BREEZY OVERNIGHT WHICH
IS NOT ALL THAT COMMON - THEN PICK BACK UP EVEN FURTHER AFTER DAWN.

TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO MIXING-DOWN W/ SOME OF THE
GUSTS...WHICH IS KEEPING DEWPOINTS RELATIVELY HIGHER THAN W/ A NW
FLOW REGIME. EVEN THOUGH SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR ATTM...DEWPOINTS
ARE REMAINING RELATIVELY HIGH AND THIS IS KEEPING TEMPS ON THE
WARMER SIDE. IF NOT FOR THE MOISTURE...TEMPS WOULD LIKELY BE
DROPPING WELL INTO THE 40S AND 30S IN SHELTERED VLYS...BUT MOST
SITES ARE BARELY AOB 55F CURRENTLY.

NOT QUITE AS GUSTY TODAY AS ON THU BUT TEMPS WILL END UP IN ABOUT
AROUND THE SAME LEVELS - M60S...U60S OVER THE SRN TIER COUNTIES.
PLENTY OF SUN TODAY...A FEW PASSING UPPER DECKS AS A PRECIP-LESS
SHORTWAVE DIGS WELL TO OUR SOUTH...OVER THE SRN APLCNS. THIS FEATURE
WILL KEEP ITS INFLUENCES AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLC BUT WILL HELP TO
USHER-IN THE MORE CALMING EFFECT OF AN UPPER MIDWEST HIGH. AFTER THE
SFC FLOW DISSIPATES POST-SUNSET TONIGHT...DEWPOINTS WILL SLOWLY
REBOUND AGAIN INTO THE 40S...FOR ANOTHER REL MILD TEMP RANGE FOR OUR
OVERNIGHT LOWS. APPLIED A BIAS-CORRECTED MET/MEX FOR TODAY`S
HIGH/LOW TEMP GRIDS. ALSO MODIFIED WINDS IN THE NEAR/SHORT TERMS W/
NEWER HI-RES WRK GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE NOSE OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL MAKE A QUICK ENTRANCE ON
SAT...SLAMMING UP AGAINST THE EXITING UPPER LEVEL JET FROM THE
OFFSHORE LOW. THIS FAST UPPER NW FLOW WILL START TO BRING IN THE
CLOUD COVER TO THE MTNS ON SAT...BUT LEAVE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
FAIRLY DRY AND CLEAR UNTIL LATER IN THE EVE. BEING ON THE RIGHT-EXIT
DOWNWARD MOTION SIDE OF THE UPPER JET WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND. WEAK BUT STEADY DOWNSLOPING FLOW MAY HELP BRING
TEMPS UP A FEW MORE DEG...PEAKING IN THE M-U60S - POSSIBLY JUST
ABOVE 70F FOR SAT AFTN.

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH EASTERN CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA ON SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. LITTLE FORCING AND LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT. THEREFORE...MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH JUST
A FEW CLOUDS NEAR THE BOUNDARY. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT DUE TO AN UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT EVEN
ACROSS THESE AREAS ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT. LEANED TOWARD
THE WARMER GUIDANCE SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO SOME CLOUD COVER AND A
GRADIENT WIND HOLDING OFF ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING. MIN TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM NEAR 40 ALONG THE RIDGE TOPS OF THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...BUT THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN STRONG BETWEEN THE APPROACHING
HIGH AND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN BREEZY CONDITIONS.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. SUNSHINE AND A DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL
OFFSET ANY WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION...ALLOWING FOR MAX TEMPS TO BE
ABOVE CLIMO. OF COURSE...THE MILD CONDITIONS MAY BE OFFSET BY THE
GUSTY WINDS. LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...WITH MAX
TEMPS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MIDDLE
70S ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO SOUTHERN MARYLAND. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT...CAUSING WINDS TO DIMINISH.
LIGHT WINDS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PROVIDE A
GOOD SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THEREFORE...MIN TEMPS SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY...RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 30S ACROSS NORTHERN
MARYLAND AND FOR LOCATIONS NEAR AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS...TO THE MIDDLE 40S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.
FROST IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A
SOUTHERLY WIND WILL ALLOW FOR MILDER CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME.
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...AND IT WILL STALL OUT NEARBY FOR LATER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME...BUT
CERTAINTY REMAINS LOW THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANOTHER BREEZY AFTN TODAY BUT A TIER LOWER IN TERMS OF PEAK
GUSTS...WHERE 15-20KT WILL BE FAIRLY COMMON FROM AFTER SUNRISE.
SEVERAL MORE HEADING INTO THE DAYTIME HRS...OF THE STEADY BREEZE
TODAY. WINDS WILL THEN QUICKLY DROP OFF TOWARD SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUE STRENGTHENING OVER THE AREA INTO SAT.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET SUNDAY EVENING...AND LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE COAST. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER JUST OFF THE COAST INTO THE LATE
NIGHT HRS TONIGHT...KEEPING BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA UNTIL
LATER THIS EVE. SCA CONTINUED FOR ALL THE WATERS TODAY.

A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST LATER MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE DURING THIS
TIME. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...BJL/GMS








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