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000
FXUS61 KRNK 130631
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
131 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS AND BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH SOME ADDED
SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO
SATURDAY. BY MONDAY ANOTHER WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE REGION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AND MIXED
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 120 AM EST SATURDAY...

00Z HIGH-RES ARW/NMM SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE SNOW BANDS VERY WELL
EARLY THIS MORNING AND WE SHOULD SEE SOME AREAS GET A QUICK INCH
OR TWO OVER THE WRN SLOPES...WITH AN INCH INTO PORTIONS OF THE NEW
RIVER VALLEY. ARCTIC AIR WILL RUSH IN AND WINDS ALREADY KICKING TO
NEAR 50 MPH IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NC...WITH SOME OVER 50 MPH
LIKE GEV...WHICH TYPICALLY GETS AN ENHANCEMENT IN WINDS DUE TO
GAP FLOW FROM THE 290 DEGREE DIRECTION. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MENTIONED IN THE WINTER HEADLINES.

THE STRONGER PRESSURE RISE ARRIVE BETWEEN NOW AND 12Z...SO WINDS
WILL STAY UP THERE WITH WIND CHILLS DROPPING FAST TO WELL BELOW
ZERO IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WE SHOULD TRANSITION TO MORE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS BY 09Z WITH
FLURRIES TO THE BLUE RIDGE.

NO UPDATES TO HEADLINES.

PREVIOUS FRIDAY EVENING DISCUSSION...

BITTER COLD AIR IS INBOUND. WINDS HAVE SWITCHED AROUND TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NOW ITS JUST A MATTER OF TIME BEFORE THE ARCTIC AIR
INFILTRATES THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. REGIONAL RADARS
INDICATE SOME INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THESE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A QUICK BURST OF SNOW WITH SNOWFALL
RATES OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH IN LESS THAN 30 MINUTES.
DELINEATION OF THE TRUE ARCTIC AIR RESIDES UPSTREAM OF THE LAST
NE-SW ORIENTED BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT YOU SEE ON RADAR.
TEMPERATURES FALL AT LEAST 10 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THIS
BOUNDARY...FROM THE MID 20S TO THE MID TEENS.

ARCTIC AIR WILL FLOW INTO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY AS DEEP 5H
TROUGHINESS CARVES OUT ACROSS THE EAST. ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS
ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH 1-3
INCHES OF SNOW LIKELY FROM THE WV HIGHLANDS SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
WESTERN NEW RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...AND FLURRIES OUT TO THE BLUE RIDGE FOOTHILLS.

ASIDE FROM THE SNOW SHOWER THREAT...THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE THE
COMBINATION OF THE COLD AND WIND...MODELS INDICATING A 50+ KNOT
85H JET PLOWING IN ON VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND 85H TEMPS FALLING
TO BELOW -20C OVERNIGHT. THIS IS STRONG ENOUGH FOR NEAR WARNING
CRITERIA WIND SPEEDS TO BE REACHED OVER THE NW NC MOUNTAINS WITH
WIDESPREAD ADVISORY LEVELS OUT TO THE BLUE RIDGE. OF MOST CONCERN
THOUGH IS THE DANGEROUS WIND CHILL...SO PREFER TO USE ONE
HEADLINE AND HAVE THE STRONG WIND SPEEDS CONTAINED WITHIN THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. ATTM THINKING SATURDAYS SUNRISE
TEMPERATURE WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
AROUND 20 IN THE PIEDMONT WITH CHILLS WELL BELOW ZERO IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND BETWEEN ZERO AND 5 ABOVE IN THE PIEDMONT.

ARCTIC HIGH SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE NW DURING SATURDAY ALLOWING SOME
MID/LATE AFTERNOON DROP OFF IN WINDS BUT STILL FRIGID WITH HIGHS SINGLE
DIGITS/TEENS MOUNTAINS AND 20S TO NEAR 30 FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST. LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE MOISTURE LOOKS TO SLOWLY WANE SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT
STILL ENOUGH FOR HIGH POPS DURING THE MORNING...TAPERING TO
CHANCE COVERAGE LATER IN THE DAY. CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO SLOWLY FADE
FROM EAST TO WEST AS THE VERY DRY ARCTIC AIR SPILLS IN ALLOWING
FOR MORE SUN FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST AND BECOMING PC FAR WEST
LATE. STILL APPEARS THAT WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA COULD LINGER
INTO THE AFTERNOON SO FEW CHANGES WITH GOING HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EST FRIDAY...

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT
THEN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP
DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO A RANGE OF 10F-
15F IN THE EAST. EVEN WITH LIGHT WINDS...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE
BELOW ZERO SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS WILL
MODERATE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY PEAKING IN THE 20S.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN TEXAS SUNDAY
NIGHT. AS THIS LOW TRACKS EAST AND DEEPENS THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL GLIDE OVER THE ARCTIC HIGH...PRODUCING
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. AS THIS LOW APPROACHES THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...A WARM NOSE WILL BEGIN TO ENTER THE AREA...POSSIBLY
CHANGING SNOW OVER TO A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET, RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON A WINTER STORM FOR THE AREA BEGINNING
MONDAY...HOWEVER P-TYPE REMAINS THE BIGGEST QUESTION.
MODELS CONTINUE TO JUMP AROUND WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW. IF THE LOW
TRACKS NORTH FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND REMAINS WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS...P-TYPE WILL CHANGE FROM SNOW TO SLEET TO RAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. IF THE TRACK IS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS...A LONGER DURATION OF SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH A CHANGE
OVER TO SLEET/RAIN OCCURRING LATER MONDAY NIGHT. DYNAMICS AND LIFT
WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE VERY IMPRESSIVE...ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA. UPWARDS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID IS LIKELY...BUT AT
WHAT P-TYPE IT FALLS AS IS ANOTHER QUESTION TO ANSWER. FOR THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE...WE WILL KEEP P-TYPE SIMPLE WITH RAIN/SNOW. WE
WILL ALSO KEEP SNOWFALL LIGHT TO MODERATE AND NOT SPECULATE ON
AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EST FRIDAY...

EARLY TUESDAY MORNING A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE CWA...WITH THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND THEN SHIFTING TO MOVE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE FURTHER
SOUTHEAST THE SYSTEM MOVES THE MORE LIKELY THE PRECIPITATION WILL
FALL AS SNOW. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME WHETHER THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL COMPLETELY AS SNOW...RAIN...OR WINTRY
RAIN MIX. THE MODELS DAYTIME SURFACE TEMPERATURES STAY WARM ENOUGH
TO FAVOR RAIN FOR MAJORITY OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY IN THE PIEDMONT.
HOWEVER...SNOW COULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS THE RIDGES STAY
COLDER AND THE LOW PRESSURE BRINGS IN A COLDER WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE.

WEDNESDAY A CLIPPER SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE CWA BRINGING AN
ADDITIONAL CHANCE FOR SNOW AND COLD TEMPERATURES. THE GFS AND EURO
ARE IN DISAGREEMENT HOW MUCH MUCH SNOW BUT MODELS TEND TO AGREE THAT
THE WESTERN SLOPES WILL SEE SOME ACCUMULATIONS. A HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS IN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL START TO
WARM UP.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1215 AM EST SATURDAY...

MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS THIS PERIOD WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND SNOW
SHOWERS.

EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR TO OCCASION IFR CIGS/VSBYS TO MAINLY
IMPACT BLF/LWB EARLY POSSIBLY ENTERING BCB/ROA...BUT IT WILL BE
ISOLATED HERE.

THE WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF NW AT 10-20KTS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 TO 40
KTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TYPICAL GUSTS TO 30
KTS WILL OCCUR AT ROA/BCB. WINDS WILL START TO WIND DOWN SOME LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO LESSEN
BY MIDDAY SATURDAY...WITH EVERYONE GOING VFR THROUGH SAT
AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY EVENING AND INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH NEAR CALM CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVERHEAD. MAIN CONCERN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BE
THE BITTER COLD...TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
ONSET OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT.  CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL EXIST FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WINTER STORM WILL PRODUCE A VARIETY OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...STARTING AS SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN TRANSITIONING
TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MONDAY. AFTER THE EARLY WEEK WINTER
STORM...THERE IS ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT THE
AREA FOR MID WEEK...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN THE CONTINUATION OF
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND. SEVERAL RECORD LOW
MAX TEMPERATURES AND LOW TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE. BELOW ARE THE
CURRENT RECORDS FOR SATURDAY 2/13 AND SUNDAY 2/14.

SATURDAY 02/13/2016
SITE   MINT YEAR  LOMAX YEAR
KBLF     4 1988     19 1988
KDAN    11 1955     32 1981
KLYH     5 1979      9 1899
KROA     8 1917     18 1914
KRNK    -4 1969     14 1955


SUNDAY 02/14/2016
SITE   MINT YEAR  LOMAX YEAR
KBLF     5 1971     16 1960
KDAN    15 1986     32 1986
KLYH     4 1899     24 1905
KROA    10 1943     26 1986
KRNK    -2 1969     24 1986

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VAZ007-009>020-
     022>024-032>035.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ007-
     009-015.
NC...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NCZ001-002-018.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ001-
     018.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ042>044-507.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ042-
     043-508.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/MBS
NEAR TERM...JH/PM/WP
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...PM/WP
CLIMATE...CF




000
FXUS61 KRNK 130631
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
131 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS AND BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH SOME ADDED
SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO
SATURDAY. BY MONDAY ANOTHER WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE REGION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AND MIXED
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 120 AM EST SATURDAY...

00Z HIGH-RES ARW/NMM SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE SNOW BANDS VERY WELL
EARLY THIS MORNING AND WE SHOULD SEE SOME AREAS GET A QUICK INCH
OR TWO OVER THE WRN SLOPES...WITH AN INCH INTO PORTIONS OF THE NEW
RIVER VALLEY. ARCTIC AIR WILL RUSH IN AND WINDS ALREADY KICKING TO
NEAR 50 MPH IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NC...WITH SOME OVER 50 MPH
LIKE GEV...WHICH TYPICALLY GETS AN ENHANCEMENT IN WINDS DUE TO
GAP FLOW FROM THE 290 DEGREE DIRECTION. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MENTIONED IN THE WINTER HEADLINES.

THE STRONGER PRESSURE RISE ARRIVE BETWEEN NOW AND 12Z...SO WINDS
WILL STAY UP THERE WITH WIND CHILLS DROPPING FAST TO WELL BELOW
ZERO IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WE SHOULD TRANSITION TO MORE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS BY 09Z WITH
FLURRIES TO THE BLUE RIDGE.

NO UPDATES TO HEADLINES.

PREVIOUS FRIDAY EVENING DISCUSSION...

BITTER COLD AIR IS INBOUND. WINDS HAVE SWITCHED AROUND TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NOW ITS JUST A MATTER OF TIME BEFORE THE ARCTIC AIR
INFILTRATES THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. REGIONAL RADARS
INDICATE SOME INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THESE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A QUICK BURST OF SNOW WITH SNOWFALL
RATES OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH IN LESS THAN 30 MINUTES.
DELINEATION OF THE TRUE ARCTIC AIR RESIDES UPSTREAM OF THE LAST
NE-SW ORIENTED BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT YOU SEE ON RADAR.
TEMPERATURES FALL AT LEAST 10 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THIS
BOUNDARY...FROM THE MID 20S TO THE MID TEENS.

ARCTIC AIR WILL FLOW INTO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY AS DEEP 5H
TROUGHINESS CARVES OUT ACROSS THE EAST. ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS
ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH 1-3
INCHES OF SNOW LIKELY FROM THE WV HIGHLANDS SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
WESTERN NEW RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...AND FLURRIES OUT TO THE BLUE RIDGE FOOTHILLS.

ASIDE FROM THE SNOW SHOWER THREAT...THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE THE
COMBINATION OF THE COLD AND WIND...MODELS INDICATING A 50+ KNOT
85H JET PLOWING IN ON VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND 85H TEMPS FALLING
TO BELOW -20C OVERNIGHT. THIS IS STRONG ENOUGH FOR NEAR WARNING
CRITERIA WIND SPEEDS TO BE REACHED OVER THE NW NC MOUNTAINS WITH
WIDESPREAD ADVISORY LEVELS OUT TO THE BLUE RIDGE. OF MOST CONCERN
THOUGH IS THE DANGEROUS WIND CHILL...SO PREFER TO USE ONE
HEADLINE AND HAVE THE STRONG WIND SPEEDS CONTAINED WITHIN THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. ATTM THINKING SATURDAYS SUNRISE
TEMPERATURE WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
AROUND 20 IN THE PIEDMONT WITH CHILLS WELL BELOW ZERO IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND BETWEEN ZERO AND 5 ABOVE IN THE PIEDMONT.

ARCTIC HIGH SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE NW DURING SATURDAY ALLOWING SOME
MID/LATE AFTERNOON DROP OFF IN WINDS BUT STILL FRIGID WITH HIGHS SINGLE
DIGITS/TEENS MOUNTAINS AND 20S TO NEAR 30 FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST. LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE MOISTURE LOOKS TO SLOWLY WANE SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT
STILL ENOUGH FOR HIGH POPS DURING THE MORNING...TAPERING TO
CHANCE COVERAGE LATER IN THE DAY. CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO SLOWLY FADE
FROM EAST TO WEST AS THE VERY DRY ARCTIC AIR SPILLS IN ALLOWING
FOR MORE SUN FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST AND BECOMING PC FAR WEST
LATE. STILL APPEARS THAT WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA COULD LINGER
INTO THE AFTERNOON SO FEW CHANGES WITH GOING HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EST FRIDAY...

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT
THEN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP
DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO A RANGE OF 10F-
15F IN THE EAST. EVEN WITH LIGHT WINDS...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE
BELOW ZERO SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS WILL
MODERATE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY PEAKING IN THE 20S.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN TEXAS SUNDAY
NIGHT. AS THIS LOW TRACKS EAST AND DEEPENS THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL GLIDE OVER THE ARCTIC HIGH...PRODUCING
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. AS THIS LOW APPROACHES THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...A WARM NOSE WILL BEGIN TO ENTER THE AREA...POSSIBLY
CHANGING SNOW OVER TO A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET, RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON A WINTER STORM FOR THE AREA BEGINNING
MONDAY...HOWEVER P-TYPE REMAINS THE BIGGEST QUESTION.
MODELS CONTINUE TO JUMP AROUND WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW. IF THE LOW
TRACKS NORTH FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND REMAINS WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS...P-TYPE WILL CHANGE FROM SNOW TO SLEET TO RAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. IF THE TRACK IS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS...A LONGER DURATION OF SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH A CHANGE
OVER TO SLEET/RAIN OCCURRING LATER MONDAY NIGHT. DYNAMICS AND LIFT
WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE VERY IMPRESSIVE...ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA. UPWARDS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID IS LIKELY...BUT AT
WHAT P-TYPE IT FALLS AS IS ANOTHER QUESTION TO ANSWER. FOR THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE...WE WILL KEEP P-TYPE SIMPLE WITH RAIN/SNOW. WE
WILL ALSO KEEP SNOWFALL LIGHT TO MODERATE AND NOT SPECULATE ON
AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EST FRIDAY...

EARLY TUESDAY MORNING A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE CWA...WITH THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND THEN SHIFTING TO MOVE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE FURTHER
SOUTHEAST THE SYSTEM MOVES THE MORE LIKELY THE PRECIPITATION WILL
FALL AS SNOW. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME WHETHER THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL COMPLETELY AS SNOW...RAIN...OR WINTRY
RAIN MIX. THE MODELS DAYTIME SURFACE TEMPERATURES STAY WARM ENOUGH
TO FAVOR RAIN FOR MAJORITY OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY IN THE PIEDMONT.
HOWEVER...SNOW COULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS THE RIDGES STAY
COLDER AND THE LOW PRESSURE BRINGS IN A COLDER WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE.

WEDNESDAY A CLIPPER SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE CWA BRINGING AN
ADDITIONAL CHANCE FOR SNOW AND COLD TEMPERATURES. THE GFS AND EURO
ARE IN DISAGREEMENT HOW MUCH MUCH SNOW BUT MODELS TEND TO AGREE THAT
THE WESTERN SLOPES WILL SEE SOME ACCUMULATIONS. A HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS IN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL START TO
WARM UP.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1215 AM EST SATURDAY...

MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS THIS PERIOD WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND SNOW
SHOWERS.

EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR TO OCCASION IFR CIGS/VSBYS TO MAINLY
IMPACT BLF/LWB EARLY POSSIBLY ENTERING BCB/ROA...BUT IT WILL BE
ISOLATED HERE.

THE WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF NW AT 10-20KTS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 TO 40
KTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TYPICAL GUSTS TO 30
KTS WILL OCCUR AT ROA/BCB. WINDS WILL START TO WIND DOWN SOME LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO LESSEN
BY MIDDAY SATURDAY...WITH EVERYONE GOING VFR THROUGH SAT
AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY EVENING AND INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH NEAR CALM CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVERHEAD. MAIN CONCERN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BE
THE BITTER COLD...TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
ONSET OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT.  CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL EXIST FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WINTER STORM WILL PRODUCE A VARIETY OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...STARTING AS SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN TRANSITIONING
TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MONDAY. AFTER THE EARLY WEEK WINTER
STORM...THERE IS ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT THE
AREA FOR MID WEEK...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN THE CONTINUATION OF
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND. SEVERAL RECORD LOW
MAX TEMPERATURES AND LOW TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE. BELOW ARE THE
CURRENT RECORDS FOR SATURDAY 2/13 AND SUNDAY 2/14.

SATURDAY 02/13/2016
SITE   MINT YEAR  LOMAX YEAR
KBLF     4 1988     19 1988
KDAN    11 1955     32 1981
KLYH     5 1979      9 1899
KROA     8 1917     18 1914
KRNK    -4 1969     14 1955


SUNDAY 02/14/2016
SITE   MINT YEAR  LOMAX YEAR
KBLF     5 1971     16 1960
KDAN    15 1986     32 1986
KLYH     4 1899     24 1905
KROA    10 1943     26 1986
KRNK    -2 1969     24 1986

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VAZ007-009>020-
     022>024-032>035.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ007-
     009-015.
NC...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NCZ001-002-018.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ001-
     018.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ042>044-507.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ042-
     043-508.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/MBS
NEAR TERM...JH/PM/WP
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...PM/WP
CLIMATE...CF



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 130619
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
119 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS YEAR. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
PER CRNT RADAR TRENDS...ADDED SCT FLURRIES TO GRIDS NEXT SVRL HRS
AS ARCTIC BNDRY PUSHES ACROSS THE RGN. NW WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH COASTAL AREAS AND THE ERN SHORE.
DCRG CLDNS SW TO NE LATE. LOWS IN THE TEENS TO L20S. WIND CHILLS
WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH LOCATES OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES SAT AS THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY PUSHES OFFSHORE. POLAR FRONT
PROGGED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS
INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE SAT...USHERING IN SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON. H85 TEMPS PLUMMET TO AROUND -18 TO -20C (-2 TO -3 STD
DEV). HIGHS ONLY FORECAST IN THE MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW 30S SE.
WINDY...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30 TO
35 MPH. GUSTS OVER THE EASTERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED TO
REACH 40 MPH. WHILE THE AIR MASS REMAINS VERY DRY (DEWPOINTS BELOW
0)...BAY STREAMERS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ERN
SHORE. WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE. SKY AVERAGES SUNNY
SOUTHWEST TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE. LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE IN WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION SAT NIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH INLAND...ALLOWING FOR GREAT
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWS PLUNGING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS INLAND TO UPPER TEENS NEAR THE COAST. WIND CHILL VALUES
GENERALLY 0 TO 5 ABOVE INLAND AND AROUND 5 BELOW NRN NECK TO THE ERN
SHORE. WILL HOLD OFF ON WIND CHILL ADVISORY ATTM.

THE ARCTIC HIGH CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC SUN...WITH HIGHS ONLY
WARMING INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S (-2 STD DEV). SKY AVERAGES MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH A LIGHT NY WIND. MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

THE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUN NIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. NRN STREAM ENERGY LIFTS
NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT/MONDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS MON. SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. POPS INCREASE LATE SUN
NIGHT AS THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM WEAKENS AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. AIR MASS WILL EASILY BE COLD ENOUGH SUN
NIGHT FOR ALL SNOW AS LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
AROUND 20. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE MON AS A COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENS
ALONG THE COAST AND THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP SOUTH LOW BEGINS TO LIFT
NEWD TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE
NW MONDAY MORNING...WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS ALL BUT SE VA/NE NC MON
AFTERNOON. WAA ALOFT/CRITICAL THICKNESSES STILL INDICATING A CHANGE
OVER FROM SN/IP MON MORNING TO RA CLOSER TO THE COAST MON AFTERNOON.
PTYPE LIKELY TO REMAIN ALL SNOW NW. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME TIMING
AND SPATIAL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...BUT CURRENT SNOWFALL
FORECAST CALLS FOR 1-2 INCHES ALONG THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR INTO
CENTRAL VA AND NRN VA...WITH 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE NW COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12/12Z NUMERICAL MODELS DEPICT LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NE FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS MONDAY EVENING...THEN RAPIDLY
DEEPENING AS IT LIFTS NE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY AS A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MIXED PCPN COULD CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING OVER THE PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD OCCUR IN
THE EVENING...WITH RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES SSE. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THE
LONGEST IN THE FAR NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES WHERE SOME POCKETS OF -FZRA
COULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT GENERALLY ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN ARE POSSIBLE LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A BAND OF STRONG VERTICAL ASCENT PASSES
OVER THE REGION. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS COULD PRODUCE A MODESTLY
STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE AREA FOR A 3-6HR
PERIOD TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM TO AT LEAST THE MID/UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH LOW 60S POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COAST...WHILE THE PIEDMONT STRUGGLES TO RISE ABOVE THE
UPPER 40S/LOW 50S. GENERALLY EXPECTING DRIER CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME 20-30% POPS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE N AS A
SECONDARY TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. DRY AND MILD
WEDNESDAY UNDER WNW FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. A
COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL...BUT WITHIN -1 ST DEV. A MODERATING TREND COMMENCES LATE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PLENTY OF CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES WELL
OFFSHORE AND THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION.
MODIFIED ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST THE REST OF
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FILTERING INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION DURING THIS TIME. TEMPERATURE AND PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL RESULT IN NW WINDS BECOMING BREEZY FROM NW TO SE
THE REST OF TONIGHT...BECOMING GUSTY AFTER 13/1100Z AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE REST OF SATURDAY. INLAND WINDS AVERAGING 15KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20-25KT...ALONG THE COAST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 20-25KT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-35KT. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AND THEN
START TO BREAK UP AROUND SUNSET. SFC HIGH FINALLY BUILDS INTO THE
REGION BY SUN MORNING...HOWEVER NW WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT (ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST) DUE TO A VERY
GRADUAL RELAXING OF THE TEMP/PRESSURE GRADIENT.

HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES ON SUNDAY WITH DRY WX...GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS...AND VFR CONDITIONS. NEXT COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO
IMPACT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. PLENTY OF COLD AIR IN PLACE FOR
PRECIP TO BEGIN AS ALL SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...A DEEPENING LOW MOVING IN FROM THE SW IS EXPECTED TO
PULL WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL COMPLICATE PRECIP
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CNTRL VA WHERE COLDER AIR MAY LINGER
AT THE SFC. COULD SEE A WINTRY MIX NORTHWEST HALF OF FA AND A
CHANGEOVER TO ALL RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. REGARDLESS OF PRECIP
TYPE...EXPECT CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS ONCE PRECIP BEGINS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. A BREAK IN PRECIP AND FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY NIGHT BUT COULD BE SHORT-
LIVED. ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE MAY BRUSH ACROSS NRN VA AND THE
MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT IMPACTS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED AT LOCAL TAF SITES AT THE MOMENT.

&&

.MARINE...
10 PM UPDATE...BEGAN MARINE HEADLINES WITH 10 PM ISSUANCE. SCA
CONDITIONS TO BEGIN ACROSS NRN WATERS IN THE BALLPARK OF 400 AM...
WITH WINDS INCREASING RAPIDLY TO GALE FORCE GUSTS FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH AROUND SUNRISE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING ENE OFF THE NC COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING ACROSS THE
ERN LAKES...WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT TRAILING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY...AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SPILLING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THE COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SN...WHICH WILL REDUCE VSBY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING (MAINLY S). AS THE LOW LIFTS TO
THE NE TONIGHT THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION
WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE
NW. A NW WIND WILL AVERAGE 25-30KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35-40KT
OVER THE OCEAN AND BAY. SEAS BUILD TO 5-8FT WITH 4-5 FT WAVES IN
THE BAY. GALE FLAGS CONTINUE FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND...WIND SPEEDS REMAIN CAPPED AT
HIGH-END SCA AT THIS TIME. FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED AS
TEMPERATURES PLUMMET SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FORM THE SW EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND TRACKS UP THE
PIEDMONT TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODESTLY STRONG SSE WIND
AND BUILDING SEAS/WAVES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE
BLOW-OUT TIDES / LOW WATER ADVISORIES FOR SOME AREAS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...AND MUCH OF THE COASTLINES SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. THE MAIN AREAS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THAT COULD HAVE
LOW WATER ARE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST N OF CAPE CHARLES. A LOW
WATER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 08-13Z (3 TO 8 AM).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ633-635>638.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EST
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-
     654-656-658.
     LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ650-652-
     654.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM
NEAR TERM...MAS/MPR/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 130619
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
119 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS YEAR. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
PER CRNT RADAR TRENDS...ADDED SCT FLURRIES TO GRIDS NEXT SVRL HRS
AS ARCTIC BNDRY PUSHES ACROSS THE RGN. NW WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH COASTAL AREAS AND THE ERN SHORE.
DCRG CLDNS SW TO NE LATE. LOWS IN THE TEENS TO L20S. WIND CHILLS
WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH LOCATES OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES SAT AS THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY PUSHES OFFSHORE. POLAR FRONT
PROGGED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS
INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE SAT...USHERING IN SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON. H85 TEMPS PLUMMET TO AROUND -18 TO -20C (-2 TO -3 STD
DEV). HIGHS ONLY FORECAST IN THE MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW 30S SE.
WINDY...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30 TO
35 MPH. GUSTS OVER THE EASTERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED TO
REACH 40 MPH. WHILE THE AIR MASS REMAINS VERY DRY (DEWPOINTS BELOW
0)...BAY STREAMERS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ERN
SHORE. WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE. SKY AVERAGES SUNNY
SOUTHWEST TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE. LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE IN WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION SAT NIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH INLAND...ALLOWING FOR GREAT
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWS PLUNGING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS INLAND TO UPPER TEENS NEAR THE COAST. WIND CHILL VALUES
GENERALLY 0 TO 5 ABOVE INLAND AND AROUND 5 BELOW NRN NECK TO THE ERN
SHORE. WILL HOLD OFF ON WIND CHILL ADVISORY ATTM.

THE ARCTIC HIGH CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC SUN...WITH HIGHS ONLY
WARMING INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S (-2 STD DEV). SKY AVERAGES MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH A LIGHT NY WIND. MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

THE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUN NIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. NRN STREAM ENERGY LIFTS
NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT/MONDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS MON. SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. POPS INCREASE LATE SUN
NIGHT AS THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM WEAKENS AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. AIR MASS WILL EASILY BE COLD ENOUGH SUN
NIGHT FOR ALL SNOW AS LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
AROUND 20. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE MON AS A COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENS
ALONG THE COAST AND THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP SOUTH LOW BEGINS TO LIFT
NEWD TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE
NW MONDAY MORNING...WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS ALL BUT SE VA/NE NC MON
AFTERNOON. WAA ALOFT/CRITICAL THICKNESSES STILL INDICATING A CHANGE
OVER FROM SN/IP MON MORNING TO RA CLOSER TO THE COAST MON AFTERNOON.
PTYPE LIKELY TO REMAIN ALL SNOW NW. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME TIMING
AND SPATIAL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...BUT CURRENT SNOWFALL
FORECAST CALLS FOR 1-2 INCHES ALONG THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR INTO
CENTRAL VA AND NRN VA...WITH 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE NW COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12/12Z NUMERICAL MODELS DEPICT LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NE FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS MONDAY EVENING...THEN RAPIDLY
DEEPENING AS IT LIFTS NE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY AS A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MIXED PCPN COULD CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING OVER THE PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD OCCUR IN
THE EVENING...WITH RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES SSE. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THE
LONGEST IN THE FAR NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES WHERE SOME POCKETS OF -FZRA
COULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT GENERALLY ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN ARE POSSIBLE LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A BAND OF STRONG VERTICAL ASCENT PASSES
OVER THE REGION. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS COULD PRODUCE A MODESTLY
STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE AREA FOR A 3-6HR
PERIOD TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM TO AT LEAST THE MID/UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH LOW 60S POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COAST...WHILE THE PIEDMONT STRUGGLES TO RISE ABOVE THE
UPPER 40S/LOW 50S. GENERALLY EXPECTING DRIER CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME 20-30% POPS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE N AS A
SECONDARY TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. DRY AND MILD
WEDNESDAY UNDER WNW FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. A
COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL...BUT WITHIN -1 ST DEV. A MODERATING TREND COMMENCES LATE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PLENTY OF CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES WELL
OFFSHORE AND THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION.
MODIFIED ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST THE REST OF
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FILTERING INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION DURING THIS TIME. TEMPERATURE AND PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL RESULT IN NW WINDS BECOMING BREEZY FROM NW TO SE
THE REST OF TONIGHT...BECOMING GUSTY AFTER 13/1100Z AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE REST OF SATURDAY. INLAND WINDS AVERAGING 15KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20-25KT...ALONG THE COAST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 20-25KT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-35KT. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AND THEN
START TO BREAK UP AROUND SUNSET. SFC HIGH FINALLY BUILDS INTO THE
REGION BY SUN MORNING...HOWEVER NW WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT (ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST) DUE TO A VERY
GRADUAL RELAXING OF THE TEMP/PRESSURE GRADIENT.

HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES ON SUNDAY WITH DRY WX...GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS...AND VFR CONDITIONS. NEXT COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO
IMPACT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. PLENTY OF COLD AIR IN PLACE FOR
PRECIP TO BEGIN AS ALL SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...A DEEPENING LOW MOVING IN FROM THE SW IS EXPECTED TO
PULL WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL COMPLICATE PRECIP
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CNTRL VA WHERE COLDER AIR MAY LINGER
AT THE SFC. COULD SEE A WINTRY MIX NORTHWEST HALF OF FA AND A
CHANGEOVER TO ALL RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. REGARDLESS OF PRECIP
TYPE...EXPECT CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS ONCE PRECIP BEGINS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. A BREAK IN PRECIP AND FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY NIGHT BUT COULD BE SHORT-
LIVED. ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE MAY BRUSH ACROSS NRN VA AND THE
MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT IMPACTS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED AT LOCAL TAF SITES AT THE MOMENT.

&&

.MARINE...
10 PM UPDATE...BEGAN MARINE HEADLINES WITH 10 PM ISSUANCE. SCA
CONDITIONS TO BEGIN ACROSS NRN WATERS IN THE BALLPARK OF 400 AM...
WITH WINDS INCREASING RAPIDLY TO GALE FORCE GUSTS FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH AROUND SUNRISE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING ENE OFF THE NC COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING ACROSS THE
ERN LAKES...WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT TRAILING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY...AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SPILLING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THE COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SN...WHICH WILL REDUCE VSBY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING (MAINLY S). AS THE LOW LIFTS TO
THE NE TONIGHT THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION
WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE
NW. A NW WIND WILL AVERAGE 25-30KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35-40KT
OVER THE OCEAN AND BAY. SEAS BUILD TO 5-8FT WITH 4-5 FT WAVES IN
THE BAY. GALE FLAGS CONTINUE FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND...WIND SPEEDS REMAIN CAPPED AT
HIGH-END SCA AT THIS TIME. FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED AS
TEMPERATURES PLUMMET SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FORM THE SW EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND TRACKS UP THE
PIEDMONT TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODESTLY STRONG SSE WIND
AND BUILDING SEAS/WAVES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE
BLOW-OUT TIDES / LOW WATER ADVISORIES FOR SOME AREAS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...AND MUCH OF THE COASTLINES SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. THE MAIN AREAS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THAT COULD HAVE
LOW WATER ARE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST N OF CAPE CHARLES. A LOW
WATER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 08-13Z (3 TO 8 AM).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ633-635>638.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EST
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-
     654-656-658.
     LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ650-652-
     654.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM
NEAR TERM...MAS/MPR/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 130619
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
119 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS YEAR. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
PER CRNT RADAR TRENDS...ADDED SCT FLURRIES TO GRIDS NEXT SVRL HRS
AS ARCTIC BNDRY PUSHES ACROSS THE RGN. NW WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH COASTAL AREAS AND THE ERN SHORE.
DCRG CLDNS SW TO NE LATE. LOWS IN THE TEENS TO L20S. WIND CHILLS
WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH LOCATES OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES SAT AS THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY PUSHES OFFSHORE. POLAR FRONT
PROGGED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS
INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE SAT...USHERING IN SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON. H85 TEMPS PLUMMET TO AROUND -18 TO -20C (-2 TO -3 STD
DEV). HIGHS ONLY FORECAST IN THE MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW 30S SE.
WINDY...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30 TO
35 MPH. GUSTS OVER THE EASTERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED TO
REACH 40 MPH. WHILE THE AIR MASS REMAINS VERY DRY (DEWPOINTS BELOW
0)...BAY STREAMERS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ERN
SHORE. WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE. SKY AVERAGES SUNNY
SOUTHWEST TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE. LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE IN WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION SAT NIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH INLAND...ALLOWING FOR GREAT
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWS PLUNGING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS INLAND TO UPPER TEENS NEAR THE COAST. WIND CHILL VALUES
GENERALLY 0 TO 5 ABOVE INLAND AND AROUND 5 BELOW NRN NECK TO THE ERN
SHORE. WILL HOLD OFF ON WIND CHILL ADVISORY ATTM.

THE ARCTIC HIGH CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC SUN...WITH HIGHS ONLY
WARMING INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S (-2 STD DEV). SKY AVERAGES MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH A LIGHT NY WIND. MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

THE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUN NIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. NRN STREAM ENERGY LIFTS
NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT/MONDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS MON. SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. POPS INCREASE LATE SUN
NIGHT AS THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM WEAKENS AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. AIR MASS WILL EASILY BE COLD ENOUGH SUN
NIGHT FOR ALL SNOW AS LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
AROUND 20. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE MON AS A COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENS
ALONG THE COAST AND THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP SOUTH LOW BEGINS TO LIFT
NEWD TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE
NW MONDAY MORNING...WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS ALL BUT SE VA/NE NC MON
AFTERNOON. WAA ALOFT/CRITICAL THICKNESSES STILL INDICATING A CHANGE
OVER FROM SN/IP MON MORNING TO RA CLOSER TO THE COAST MON AFTERNOON.
PTYPE LIKELY TO REMAIN ALL SNOW NW. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME TIMING
AND SPATIAL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...BUT CURRENT SNOWFALL
FORECAST CALLS FOR 1-2 INCHES ALONG THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR INTO
CENTRAL VA AND NRN VA...WITH 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE NW COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12/12Z NUMERICAL MODELS DEPICT LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NE FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS MONDAY EVENING...THEN RAPIDLY
DEEPENING AS IT LIFTS NE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY AS A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MIXED PCPN COULD CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING OVER THE PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD OCCUR IN
THE EVENING...WITH RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES SSE. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THE
LONGEST IN THE FAR NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES WHERE SOME POCKETS OF -FZRA
COULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT GENERALLY ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN ARE POSSIBLE LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A BAND OF STRONG VERTICAL ASCENT PASSES
OVER THE REGION. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS COULD PRODUCE A MODESTLY
STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE AREA FOR A 3-6HR
PERIOD TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM TO AT LEAST THE MID/UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH LOW 60S POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COAST...WHILE THE PIEDMONT STRUGGLES TO RISE ABOVE THE
UPPER 40S/LOW 50S. GENERALLY EXPECTING DRIER CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME 20-30% POPS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE N AS A
SECONDARY TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. DRY AND MILD
WEDNESDAY UNDER WNW FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. A
COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL...BUT WITHIN -1 ST DEV. A MODERATING TREND COMMENCES LATE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PLENTY OF CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES WELL
OFFSHORE AND THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION.
MODIFIED ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST THE REST OF
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FILTERING INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION DURING THIS TIME. TEMPERATURE AND PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL RESULT IN NW WINDS BECOMING BREEZY FROM NW TO SE
THE REST OF TONIGHT...BECOMING GUSTY AFTER 13/1100Z AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE REST OF SATURDAY. INLAND WINDS AVERAGING 15KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20-25KT...ALONG THE COAST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 20-25KT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-35KT. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AND THEN
START TO BREAK UP AROUND SUNSET. SFC HIGH FINALLY BUILDS INTO THE
REGION BY SUN MORNING...HOWEVER NW WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT (ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST) DUE TO A VERY
GRADUAL RELAXING OF THE TEMP/PRESSURE GRADIENT.

HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES ON SUNDAY WITH DRY WX...GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS...AND VFR CONDITIONS. NEXT COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO
IMPACT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. PLENTY OF COLD AIR IN PLACE FOR
PRECIP TO BEGIN AS ALL SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...A DEEPENING LOW MOVING IN FROM THE SW IS EXPECTED TO
PULL WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL COMPLICATE PRECIP
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CNTRL VA WHERE COLDER AIR MAY LINGER
AT THE SFC. COULD SEE A WINTRY MIX NORTHWEST HALF OF FA AND A
CHANGEOVER TO ALL RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. REGARDLESS OF PRECIP
TYPE...EXPECT CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS ONCE PRECIP BEGINS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. A BREAK IN PRECIP AND FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY NIGHT BUT COULD BE SHORT-
LIVED. ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE MAY BRUSH ACROSS NRN VA AND THE
MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT IMPACTS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED AT LOCAL TAF SITES AT THE MOMENT.

&&

.MARINE...
10 PM UPDATE...BEGAN MARINE HEADLINES WITH 10 PM ISSUANCE. SCA
CONDITIONS TO BEGIN ACROSS NRN WATERS IN THE BALLPARK OF 400 AM...
WITH WINDS INCREASING RAPIDLY TO GALE FORCE GUSTS FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH AROUND SUNRISE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING ENE OFF THE NC COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING ACROSS THE
ERN LAKES...WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT TRAILING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY...AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SPILLING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THE COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SN...WHICH WILL REDUCE VSBY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING (MAINLY S). AS THE LOW LIFTS TO
THE NE TONIGHT THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION
WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE
NW. A NW WIND WILL AVERAGE 25-30KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35-40KT
OVER THE OCEAN AND BAY. SEAS BUILD TO 5-8FT WITH 4-5 FT WAVES IN
THE BAY. GALE FLAGS CONTINUE FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND...WIND SPEEDS REMAIN CAPPED AT
HIGH-END SCA AT THIS TIME. FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED AS
TEMPERATURES PLUMMET SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FORM THE SW EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND TRACKS UP THE
PIEDMONT TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODESTLY STRONG SSE WIND
AND BUILDING SEAS/WAVES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE
BLOW-OUT TIDES / LOW WATER ADVISORIES FOR SOME AREAS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...AND MUCH OF THE COASTLINES SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. THE MAIN AREAS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THAT COULD HAVE
LOW WATER ARE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST N OF CAPE CHARLES. A LOW
WATER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 08-13Z (3 TO 8 AM).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ633-635>638.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EST
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-
     654-656-658.
     LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ650-652-
     654.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM
NEAR TERM...MAS/MPR/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ



000
FXUS61 KRNK 130525
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1225 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS EAST OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING. A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM OVERNIGHT
RESULTING IN VERY WINDY CONDITIONS AND BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH SOME ADDED SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE FAR
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO SATURDAY. BY MONDAY
ANOTHER WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT FRIDAY...

BITTER COLD AIR IS INBOUND. WINDS HAVE SWITCHED AROUND TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NOW ITS JUST A MATTER OF TIME BEFORE THE ARCTIC AIR
INFILTRATES THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. REGIONAL RADARS
INDICATE SOME INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THESE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A QUICK BURST OF SNOW WITH SNOWFALL
RATES OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH IN LESS THAN 30 MINUTES.
DELINEATION OF THE TRUE ARCTIC AIR RESIDES UPSTREAM OF THE LAST
NE-SW ORIENTED BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT YOU SEE ON RADAR.
TEMPERATURES FALL AT LEAST 10 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THIS
BOUNDARY...FROM THE MID 20S TO THE MID TEENS.

ARCTIC AIR WILL FLOW INTO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY AS DEEP 5H
TROFFINESS CARVES OUT ACROSS THE EAST. ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS
ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH 1-3
INCHES OF SNOW LIKELY FROM THE WV HIGHLANDS SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
WESTERN NEW RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...AND FLURRIES OUT TO THE BLUE RIDGE FOOTHILLS.

ASIDE FROM THE SNOW SHOWER THREAT...THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE THE
COMBINATION OF THE COLD AND WIND...MODELS INDICATING A 50+ KNOT
85H JET PLOWING IN ON VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND 85H TEMPS FALLING
TO BELOW -20C OVERNIGHT. THIS IS STRONG ENOUGH FOR NEAR WARNING
CRITERIA WIND SPEEDS TO BE REACHED OVER THE NW NC MOUNTAINS WITH
WIDESPREAD ADVISORY LEVELS OUT TO THE BLUE RIDGE. OF MOST CONCERN
THOUGH IS THE DANGEROUS WIND CHILL...SO PREFER TO USE ONE
HEADLINE AND HAVE THE STRONG WIND SPEEDS CONTAINED WITHIN THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. ATTM THINKING SATURDAYS SUNRISE
TEMPERATURE WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
AROUND 20 IN THE PIEDMONT WITH CHILLS WELL BELOW ZERO IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND BETWEEN ZERO AND 5 ABOVE IN THE PIEDMONT.

ARCTIC HIGH SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE NW DURING SATURDAY ALLOWING SOME
MID/LATE AFTERNOON DROP OFF IN WINDS BUT STILL FRIGID WITH HIGHS SINGLE
DIGITS/TEENS MOUNTAINS AND 20S TO NEAR 30 FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST. LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE MOISTURE LOOKS TO SLOWLY WANE SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT
STILL ENOUGH FOR HIGH POPS DURING THE MORNING...TAPERING TO
CHANCE COVERAGE LATER IN THE DAY. CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO SLOWLY FADE
FROM EAST TO WEST AS THE VERY DRY ARCTIC AIR SPILLS IN ALLOWING
FOR MORE SUN FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST AND BECOMING PC FAR WEST
LATE. STILL APPEARS THAT WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA COULD LINGER
INTO THE AFTERNOON SO FEW CHANGES WITH GOING HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EST FRIDAY...

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT
THEN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP
DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO A RANGE OF 10F-
15F IN THE EAST. EVEN WITH LIGHT WINDS...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE
BELOW ZERO SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS WILL
MODERATE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY PEAKING IN THE 20S.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN TEXAS SUNDAY
NIGHT. AS THIS LOW TRACKS EAST AND DEEPENS THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL GLIDE OVER THE ARCTIC HIGH...PRODUCING
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. AS THIS LOW APPROACHES THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...A WARM NOSE WILL BEGIN TO ENTER THE AREA...POSSIBLY
CHANGING SNOW OVER TO A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET, RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON A WINTER STORM FOR THE AREA BEGINNING
MONDAY...HOWEVER P-TYPE REMAINS THE BIGGEST QUESTION.
MODELS CONTINUE TO JUMP AROUND WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW. IF THE LOW
TRACKS NORTH FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND REMAINS WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS...P-TYPE WILL CHANGE FROM SNOW TO SLEET TO RAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. IF THE TRACK IS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS...A LONGER DURATION OF SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH A CHANGE
OVER TO SLEET/RAIN OCCURRING LATER MONDAY NIGHT. DYNAMICS AND LIFT
WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE VERY IMPRESSIVE...ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA. UPWARDS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID IS LIKELY...BUT AT
WHAT P-TYPE IT FALLS AS IS ANOTHER QUESTION TO ANSWER. FOR THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE...WE WILL KEEP P-TYPE SIMPLE WITH RAIN/SNOW. WE
WILL ALSO KEEP SNOWFALL LIGHT TO MODERATE AND NOT SPECULATE ON
AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EST FRIDAY...

EARLY TUESDAY MORNING A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE CWA...WITH THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND THEN SHIFTING TO MOVE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE FURTHER
SOUTHEAST THE SYSTEM MOVES THE MORE LIKELY THE PRECIPITATION WILL
FALL AS SNOW. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME WHETHER THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL COMPLETELY AS SNOW...RAIN...OR WINTRY
RAIN MIX. THE MODELS DAYTIME SURFACE TEMPERATURES STAY WARM ENOUGH
TO FAVOR RAIN FOR MAJORITY OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY IN THE PIEDMONT.
HOWEVER...SNOW COULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS THE RIDGES STAY
COLDER AND THE LOW PRESSURE BRINGS IN A COLDER WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE.

WEDNESDAY A CLIPPER SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE CWA BRINGING AN
ADDITIONAL CHANCE FOR SNOW AND COLD TEMPERATURES. THE GFS AND EURO
ARE IN DISAGREEMENT HOW MUCH MUCH SNOW BUT MODELS TEND TO AGREE THAT
THE WESTERN SLOPES WILL SEE SOME ACCUMULATIONS. A HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS IN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL START TO
WARM UP.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1215 AM EST SATURDAY...

MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS THIS PERIOD WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND SNOW
SHOWERS.

EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR TO OCCASION IFR CIGS/VSBYS TO MAINLY
IMPACT BLF/LWB EARLY POSSIBLY ENTERING BCB/ROA...BUT IT WILL BE
ISOLATED HERE.

THE WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF NW AT 10-20KTS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 TO 40
KTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TYPICAL GUSTS TO 30
KTS WILL OCCUR AT ROA/BCB. WINDS WILL START TO WIND DOWN SOME LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO LESSEN
BY MIDDAY SATURDAY...WITH EVERYONE GOING VFR THROUGH SAT
AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY EVENING AND INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH NEAR CALM CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVERHEAD. MAIN CONCERN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BE
THE BITTER COLD...TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
ONSET OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT.  CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL EXIST FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WINTER STORM WILL PRODUCE A VARIETY OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...STARTING AS SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN TRANSITIONING
TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MONDAY. AFTER THE EARLY WEEK WINTER
STORM...THERE IS ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT THE
AREA FOR MID WEEK...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN THE CONTINUATION OF
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND. SEVERAL RECORD LOW
MAX TEMPERATURES AND LOW TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE. BELOW ARE THE
CURRENT RECORDS FOR SATURDAY 2/13 AND SUNDAY 2/14.

SATURDAY 02/13/2016
SITE   MINT YEAR  LOMAX YEAR
KBLF     4 1988     19 1988
KDAN    11 1955     32 1981
KLYH     5 1979      9 1899
KROA     8 1917     18 1914
KRNK    -4 1969     14 1955


SUNDAY 02/14/2016
SITE   MINT YEAR  LOMAX YEAR
KBLF     5 1971     16 1960
KDAN    15 1986     32 1986
KLYH     4 1899     24 1905
KROA    10 1943     26 1986
KRNK    -2 1969     24 1986

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VAZ007-009>020-
     022>024-032>035.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ007-
     009-015.
NC...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NCZ001-002-018.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ001-
     018.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ042>044-507.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ042-
     043-508.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/MBS
NEAR TERM...JH/PM
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...PM/WP
CLIMATE...CF




000
FXUS61 KRNK 130525
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1225 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS EAST OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING. A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM OVERNIGHT
RESULTING IN VERY WINDY CONDITIONS AND BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH SOME ADDED SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE FAR
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO SATURDAY. BY MONDAY
ANOTHER WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT FRIDAY...

BITTER COLD AIR IS INBOUND. WINDS HAVE SWITCHED AROUND TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NOW ITS JUST A MATTER OF TIME BEFORE THE ARCTIC AIR
INFILTRATES THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. REGIONAL RADARS
INDICATE SOME INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THESE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A QUICK BURST OF SNOW WITH SNOWFALL
RATES OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH IN LESS THAN 30 MINUTES.
DELINEATION OF THE TRUE ARCTIC AIR RESIDES UPSTREAM OF THE LAST
NE-SW ORIENTED BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT YOU SEE ON RADAR.
TEMPERATURES FALL AT LEAST 10 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THIS
BOUNDARY...FROM THE MID 20S TO THE MID TEENS.

ARCTIC AIR WILL FLOW INTO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY AS DEEP 5H
TROFFINESS CARVES OUT ACROSS THE EAST. ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS
ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH 1-3
INCHES OF SNOW LIKELY FROM THE WV HIGHLANDS SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
WESTERN NEW RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...AND FLURRIES OUT TO THE BLUE RIDGE FOOTHILLS.

ASIDE FROM THE SNOW SHOWER THREAT...THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE THE
COMBINATION OF THE COLD AND WIND...MODELS INDICATING A 50+ KNOT
85H JET PLOWING IN ON VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND 85H TEMPS FALLING
TO BELOW -20C OVERNIGHT. THIS IS STRONG ENOUGH FOR NEAR WARNING
CRITERIA WIND SPEEDS TO BE REACHED OVER THE NW NC MOUNTAINS WITH
WIDESPREAD ADVISORY LEVELS OUT TO THE BLUE RIDGE. OF MOST CONCERN
THOUGH IS THE DANGEROUS WIND CHILL...SO PREFER TO USE ONE
HEADLINE AND HAVE THE STRONG WIND SPEEDS CONTAINED WITHIN THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. ATTM THINKING SATURDAYS SUNRISE
TEMPERATURE WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
AROUND 20 IN THE PIEDMONT WITH CHILLS WELL BELOW ZERO IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND BETWEEN ZERO AND 5 ABOVE IN THE PIEDMONT.

ARCTIC HIGH SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE NW DURING SATURDAY ALLOWING SOME
MID/LATE AFTERNOON DROP OFF IN WINDS BUT STILL FRIGID WITH HIGHS SINGLE
DIGITS/TEENS MOUNTAINS AND 20S TO NEAR 30 FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST. LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE MOISTURE LOOKS TO SLOWLY WANE SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT
STILL ENOUGH FOR HIGH POPS DURING THE MORNING...TAPERING TO
CHANCE COVERAGE LATER IN THE DAY. CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO SLOWLY FADE
FROM EAST TO WEST AS THE VERY DRY ARCTIC AIR SPILLS IN ALLOWING
FOR MORE SUN FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST AND BECOMING PC FAR WEST
LATE. STILL APPEARS THAT WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA COULD LINGER
INTO THE AFTERNOON SO FEW CHANGES WITH GOING HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EST FRIDAY...

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT
THEN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP
DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO A RANGE OF 10F-
15F IN THE EAST. EVEN WITH LIGHT WINDS...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE
BELOW ZERO SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS WILL
MODERATE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY PEAKING IN THE 20S.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN TEXAS SUNDAY
NIGHT. AS THIS LOW TRACKS EAST AND DEEPENS THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL GLIDE OVER THE ARCTIC HIGH...PRODUCING
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. AS THIS LOW APPROACHES THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...A WARM NOSE WILL BEGIN TO ENTER THE AREA...POSSIBLY
CHANGING SNOW OVER TO A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET, RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON A WINTER STORM FOR THE AREA BEGINNING
MONDAY...HOWEVER P-TYPE REMAINS THE BIGGEST QUESTION.
MODELS CONTINUE TO JUMP AROUND WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW. IF THE LOW
TRACKS NORTH FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND REMAINS WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS...P-TYPE WILL CHANGE FROM SNOW TO SLEET TO RAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. IF THE TRACK IS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS...A LONGER DURATION OF SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH A CHANGE
OVER TO SLEET/RAIN OCCURRING LATER MONDAY NIGHT. DYNAMICS AND LIFT
WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE VERY IMPRESSIVE...ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA. UPWARDS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID IS LIKELY...BUT AT
WHAT P-TYPE IT FALLS AS IS ANOTHER QUESTION TO ANSWER. FOR THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE...WE WILL KEEP P-TYPE SIMPLE WITH RAIN/SNOW. WE
WILL ALSO KEEP SNOWFALL LIGHT TO MODERATE AND NOT SPECULATE ON
AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EST FRIDAY...

EARLY TUESDAY MORNING A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE CWA...WITH THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND THEN SHIFTING TO MOVE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE FURTHER
SOUTHEAST THE SYSTEM MOVES THE MORE LIKELY THE PRECIPITATION WILL
FALL AS SNOW. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME WHETHER THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL COMPLETELY AS SNOW...RAIN...OR WINTRY
RAIN MIX. THE MODELS DAYTIME SURFACE TEMPERATURES STAY WARM ENOUGH
TO FAVOR RAIN FOR MAJORITY OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY IN THE PIEDMONT.
HOWEVER...SNOW COULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS THE RIDGES STAY
COLDER AND THE LOW PRESSURE BRINGS IN A COLDER WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE.

WEDNESDAY A CLIPPER SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE CWA BRINGING AN
ADDITIONAL CHANCE FOR SNOW AND COLD TEMPERATURES. THE GFS AND EURO
ARE IN DISAGREEMENT HOW MUCH MUCH SNOW BUT MODELS TEND TO AGREE THAT
THE WESTERN SLOPES WILL SEE SOME ACCUMULATIONS. A HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS IN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL START TO
WARM UP.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1215 AM EST SATURDAY...

MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS THIS PERIOD WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND SNOW
SHOWERS.

EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR TO OCCASION IFR CIGS/VSBYS TO MAINLY
IMPACT BLF/LWB EARLY POSSIBLY ENTERING BCB/ROA...BUT IT WILL BE
ISOLATED HERE.

THE WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF NW AT 10-20KTS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 TO 40
KTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TYPICAL GUSTS TO 30
KTS WILL OCCUR AT ROA/BCB. WINDS WILL START TO WIND DOWN SOME LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO LESSEN
BY MIDDAY SATURDAY...WITH EVERYONE GOING VFR THROUGH SAT
AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY EVENING AND INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH NEAR CALM CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVERHEAD. MAIN CONCERN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BE
THE BITTER COLD...TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
ONSET OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT.  CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL EXIST FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WINTER STORM WILL PRODUCE A VARIETY OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...STARTING AS SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN TRANSITIONING
TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MONDAY. AFTER THE EARLY WEEK WINTER
STORM...THERE IS ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT THE
AREA FOR MID WEEK...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN THE CONTINUATION OF
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND. SEVERAL RECORD LOW
MAX TEMPERATURES AND LOW TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE. BELOW ARE THE
CURRENT RECORDS FOR SATURDAY 2/13 AND SUNDAY 2/14.

SATURDAY 02/13/2016
SITE   MINT YEAR  LOMAX YEAR
KBLF     4 1988     19 1988
KDAN    11 1955     32 1981
KLYH     5 1979      9 1899
KROA     8 1917     18 1914
KRNK    -4 1969     14 1955


SUNDAY 02/14/2016
SITE   MINT YEAR  LOMAX YEAR
KBLF     5 1971     16 1960
KDAN    15 1986     32 1986
KLYH     4 1899     24 1905
KROA    10 1943     26 1986
KRNK    -2 1969     24 1986

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VAZ007-009>020-
     022>024-032>035.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ007-
     009-015.
NC...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NCZ001-002-018.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ001-
     018.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ042>044-507.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ042-
     043-508.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/MBS
NEAR TERM...JH/PM
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...PM/WP
CLIMATE...CF




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 130457
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1157 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS YEAR. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
PER CRNT RADAR TRENDS...ADDED SCT FLURRIES TO GRIDS NEXT SVRL HRS
AS ARCTIC BNDRY PUSHES ACROSS THE RGN. NW WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH COASTAL AREAS AND THE ERN SHORE.
DCRG CLDNS SW TO NE LATE. LOWS IN THE TEENS TO L20S. WIND CHILLS
WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH LOCATES OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES SAT AS THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY PUSHES OFFSHORE. POLAR FRONT
PROGGED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS
INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE SAT...USHERING IN SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON. H85 TEMPS PLUMMET TO AROUND -18 TO -20C (-2 TO -3 STD
DEV). HIGHS ONLY FORECAST IN THE MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW 30S SE.
WINDY...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30 TO
35 MPH. GUSTS OVER THE EASTERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED TO
REACH 40 MPH. WHILE THE AIR MASS REMAINS VERY DRY (DEWPOINTS BELOW
0)...BAY STREAMERS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ERN
SHORE. WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE. SKY AVERAGES SUNNY
SOUTHWEST TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE. LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE IN WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION SAT NIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH INLAND...ALLOWING FOR GREAT
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWS PLUNGING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS INLAND TO UPPER TEENS NEAR THE COAST. WIND CHILL VALUES
GENERALLY 0 TO 5 ABOVE INLAND AND AROUND 5 BELOW NRN NECK TO THE ERN
SHORE. WILL HOLD OFF ON WIND CHILL ADVISORY ATTM.

THE ARCTIC HIGH CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC SUN...WITH HIGHS ONLY
WARMING INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S (-2 STD DEV). SKY AVERAGES MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH A LIGHT NY WIND. MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

THE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUN NIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. NRN STREAM ENERGY LIFTS
NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT/MONDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS MON. SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. POPS INCREASE LATE SUN
NIGHT AS THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM WEAKENS AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. AIR MASS WILL EASILY BE COLD ENOUGH SUN
NIGHT FOR ALL SNOW AS LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
AROUND 20. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE MON AS A COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENS
ALONG THE COAST AND THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP SOUTH LOW BEGINS TO LIFT
NEWD TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE
NW MONDAY MORNING...WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS ALL BUT SE VA/NE NC MON
AFTERNOON. WAA ALOFT/CRITICAL THICKNESSES STILL INDICATING A CHANGE
OVER FROM SN/IP MON MORNING TO RA CLOSER TO THE COAST MON AFTERNOON.
PTYPE LIKELY TO REMAIN ALL SNOW NW. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME TIMING
AND SPATIAL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...BUT CURRENT SNOWFALL
FORECAST CALLS FOR 1-2 INCHES ALONG THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR INTO
CENTRAL VA AND NRN VA...WITH 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE NW COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12/12Z NUMERICAL MODELS DEPICT LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NE FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS MONDAY EVENING...THEN RAPIDLY
DEEPENING AS IT LIFTS NE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY AS A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MIXED PCPN COULD CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING OVER THE PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD OCCUR IN
THE EVENING...WITH RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES SSE. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THE
LONGEST IN THE FAR NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES WHERE SOME POCKETS OF -FZRA
COULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT GENERALLY ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN ARE POSSIBLE LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A BAND OF STRONG VERTICAL ASCENT PASSES
OVER THE REGION. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS COULD PRODUCE A MODESTLY
STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE AREA FOR A 3-6HR
PERIOD TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM TO AT LEAST THE MID/UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH LOW 60S POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COAST...WHILE THE PIEDMONT STRUGGLES TO RISE ABOVE THE
UPPER 40S/LOW 50S. GENERALLY EXPECTING DRIER CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME 20-30% POPS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE N AS A
SECONDARY TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. DRY AND MILD
WEDNESDAY UNDER WNW FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. A
COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL...BUT WITHIN -1 ST DEV. A MODERATING TREND COMMENCES LATE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE
COAST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF COAST STATES
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS OF 01Z...SNOW HAS ENDED OVER SE VA/NE NC BUT CONTINUES OVER
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE. AS THE LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC
AIR APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH...THERE MAY BE MORE SNOW AT SBY.
HAVE LIGHT SNOW IN THE TAF FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD GO
TO IFR BUT NOT EXPECTED TO LAST FOR VERY LONG.

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS SE PORTIONS WITH SOME
IFR INDICATED AT ECG. CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY INDICATED FOR SATURDAY. THE
EXCEPTION WOULD BE AT SBY WHERE STRATOCU IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A
CEILING OF AROUND 5K FT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR SNOW ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING TURNING
TO RAIN FROM SE TO NW MONDAY AFTN. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS INDICATED
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. PERIODS OF IFR ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
PCPN. DRY AND VFR WEATHER RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
10 PM UPDATE...BEGAN MARINE HEADLINES WITH 10 PM ISSUANCE. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS INCREASE
WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS IN THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS BY AROUND 09Z.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING ENE OFF THE NC COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING ACROSS THE
ERN LAKES...WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT TRAILING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY...AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SPILLING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THE COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SN...WHICH WILL REDUCE VSBY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING (MAINLY S). AS THE LOW LIFTS TO
THE NE TONIGHT THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION
WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE
NW. A NW WIND WILL AVERAGE 25-30KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35-40KT
OVER THE OCEAN AND BAY. SEAS BUILD TO 5-8FT WITH 4-5 FT WAVES IN
THE BAY. GALE FLAGS CONTINUE FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND...WIND SPEEDS REMAIN CAPPED AT
HIGH-END SCA AT THIS TIME. FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED AS
TEMPERATURES PLUMMET SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FORM THE SW EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND TRACKS UP THE
PIEDMONT TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODESTLY STRONG SSE WIND
AND BUILDING SEAS/WAVES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE
BLOW-OUT TIDES / LOW WATER ADVISORIES FOR SOME AREAS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...AND MUCH OF THE COASTLINES SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. THE MAIN AREAS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THAT COULD HAVE
LOW WATER ARE ALONG THE ATLANITC COAST N OF CAPE CHARLES. A LOW
WATER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 08-13Z (3 TO 8 AM).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ633-635>638.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-
     654-656-658.
     LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652-654.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MAS/MPR
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ/LSA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 130457
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1157 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS YEAR. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
PER CRNT RADAR TRENDS...ADDED SCT FLURRIES TO GRIDS NEXT SVRL HRS
AS ARCTIC BNDRY PUSHES ACROSS THE RGN. NW WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH COASTAL AREAS AND THE ERN SHORE.
DCRG CLDNS SW TO NE LATE. LOWS IN THE TEENS TO L20S. WIND CHILLS
WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH LOCATES OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES SAT AS THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY PUSHES OFFSHORE. POLAR FRONT
PROGGED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS
INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE SAT...USHERING IN SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON. H85 TEMPS PLUMMET TO AROUND -18 TO -20C (-2 TO -3 STD
DEV). HIGHS ONLY FORECAST IN THE MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW 30S SE.
WINDY...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30 TO
35 MPH. GUSTS OVER THE EASTERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED TO
REACH 40 MPH. WHILE THE AIR MASS REMAINS VERY DRY (DEWPOINTS BELOW
0)...BAY STREAMERS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ERN
SHORE. WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE. SKY AVERAGES SUNNY
SOUTHWEST TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE. LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE IN WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION SAT NIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH INLAND...ALLOWING FOR GREAT
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWS PLUNGING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS INLAND TO UPPER TEENS NEAR THE COAST. WIND CHILL VALUES
GENERALLY 0 TO 5 ABOVE INLAND AND AROUND 5 BELOW NRN NECK TO THE ERN
SHORE. WILL HOLD OFF ON WIND CHILL ADVISORY ATTM.

THE ARCTIC HIGH CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC SUN...WITH HIGHS ONLY
WARMING INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S (-2 STD DEV). SKY AVERAGES MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH A LIGHT NY WIND. MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

THE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUN NIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. NRN STREAM ENERGY LIFTS
NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT/MONDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS MON. SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. POPS INCREASE LATE SUN
NIGHT AS THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM WEAKENS AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. AIR MASS WILL EASILY BE COLD ENOUGH SUN
NIGHT FOR ALL SNOW AS LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
AROUND 20. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE MON AS A COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENS
ALONG THE COAST AND THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP SOUTH LOW BEGINS TO LIFT
NEWD TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE
NW MONDAY MORNING...WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS ALL BUT SE VA/NE NC MON
AFTERNOON. WAA ALOFT/CRITICAL THICKNESSES STILL INDICATING A CHANGE
OVER FROM SN/IP MON MORNING TO RA CLOSER TO THE COAST MON AFTERNOON.
PTYPE LIKELY TO REMAIN ALL SNOW NW. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME TIMING
AND SPATIAL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...BUT CURRENT SNOWFALL
FORECAST CALLS FOR 1-2 INCHES ALONG THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR INTO
CENTRAL VA AND NRN VA...WITH 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE NW COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12/12Z NUMERICAL MODELS DEPICT LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NE FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS MONDAY EVENING...THEN RAPIDLY
DEEPENING AS IT LIFTS NE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY AS A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MIXED PCPN COULD CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING OVER THE PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD OCCUR IN
THE EVENING...WITH RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES SSE. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THE
LONGEST IN THE FAR NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES WHERE SOME POCKETS OF -FZRA
COULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT GENERALLY ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN ARE POSSIBLE LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A BAND OF STRONG VERTICAL ASCENT PASSES
OVER THE REGION. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS COULD PRODUCE A MODESTLY
STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE AREA FOR A 3-6HR
PERIOD TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM TO AT LEAST THE MID/UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH LOW 60S POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COAST...WHILE THE PIEDMONT STRUGGLES TO RISE ABOVE THE
UPPER 40S/LOW 50S. GENERALLY EXPECTING DRIER CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME 20-30% POPS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE N AS A
SECONDARY TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. DRY AND MILD
WEDNESDAY UNDER WNW FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. A
COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL...BUT WITHIN -1 ST DEV. A MODERATING TREND COMMENCES LATE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE
COAST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF COAST STATES
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS OF 01Z...SNOW HAS ENDED OVER SE VA/NE NC BUT CONTINUES OVER
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE. AS THE LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC
AIR APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH...THERE MAY BE MORE SNOW AT SBY.
HAVE LIGHT SNOW IN THE TAF FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD GO
TO IFR BUT NOT EXPECTED TO LAST FOR VERY LONG.

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS SE PORTIONS WITH SOME
IFR INDICATED AT ECG. CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY INDICATED FOR SATURDAY. THE
EXCEPTION WOULD BE AT SBY WHERE STRATOCU IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A
CEILING OF AROUND 5K FT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR SNOW ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING TURNING
TO RAIN FROM SE TO NW MONDAY AFTN. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS INDICATED
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. PERIODS OF IFR ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
PCPN. DRY AND VFR WEATHER RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
10 PM UPDATE...BEGAN MARINE HEADLINES WITH 10 PM ISSUANCE. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS INCREASE
WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS IN THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS BY AROUND 09Z.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING ENE OFF THE NC COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING ACROSS THE
ERN LAKES...WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT TRAILING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY...AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SPILLING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THE COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SN...WHICH WILL REDUCE VSBY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING (MAINLY S). AS THE LOW LIFTS TO
THE NE TONIGHT THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION
WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE
NW. A NW WIND WILL AVERAGE 25-30KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35-40KT
OVER THE OCEAN AND BAY. SEAS BUILD TO 5-8FT WITH 4-5 FT WAVES IN
THE BAY. GALE FLAGS CONTINUE FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND...WIND SPEEDS REMAIN CAPPED AT
HIGH-END SCA AT THIS TIME. FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED AS
TEMPERATURES PLUMMET SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FORM THE SW EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND TRACKS UP THE
PIEDMONT TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODESTLY STRONG SSE WIND
AND BUILDING SEAS/WAVES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE
BLOW-OUT TIDES / LOW WATER ADVISORIES FOR SOME AREAS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...AND MUCH OF THE COASTLINES SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. THE MAIN AREAS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THAT COULD HAVE
LOW WATER ARE ALONG THE ATLANITC COAST N OF CAPE CHARLES. A LOW
WATER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 08-13Z (3 TO 8 AM).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ633-635>638.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-
     654-656-658.
     LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652-654.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MAS/MPR
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ/LSA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 130457
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1157 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS YEAR. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
PER CRNT RADAR TRENDS...ADDED SCT FLURRIES TO GRIDS NEXT SVRL HRS
AS ARCTIC BNDRY PUSHES ACROSS THE RGN. NW WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH COASTAL AREAS AND THE ERN SHORE.
DCRG CLDNS SW TO NE LATE. LOWS IN THE TEENS TO L20S. WIND CHILLS
WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH LOCATES OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES SAT AS THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY PUSHES OFFSHORE. POLAR FRONT
PROGGED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS
INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE SAT...USHERING IN SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON. H85 TEMPS PLUMMET TO AROUND -18 TO -20C (-2 TO -3 STD
DEV). HIGHS ONLY FORECAST IN THE MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW 30S SE.
WINDY...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30 TO
35 MPH. GUSTS OVER THE EASTERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED TO
REACH 40 MPH. WHILE THE AIR MASS REMAINS VERY DRY (DEWPOINTS BELOW
0)...BAY STREAMERS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ERN
SHORE. WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE. SKY AVERAGES SUNNY
SOUTHWEST TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE. LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE IN WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION SAT NIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH INLAND...ALLOWING FOR GREAT
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWS PLUNGING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS INLAND TO UPPER TEENS NEAR THE COAST. WIND CHILL VALUES
GENERALLY 0 TO 5 ABOVE INLAND AND AROUND 5 BELOW NRN NECK TO THE ERN
SHORE. WILL HOLD OFF ON WIND CHILL ADVISORY ATTM.

THE ARCTIC HIGH CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC SUN...WITH HIGHS ONLY
WARMING INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S (-2 STD DEV). SKY AVERAGES MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH A LIGHT NY WIND. MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

THE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUN NIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. NRN STREAM ENERGY LIFTS
NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT/MONDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS MON. SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. POPS INCREASE LATE SUN
NIGHT AS THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM WEAKENS AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. AIR MASS WILL EASILY BE COLD ENOUGH SUN
NIGHT FOR ALL SNOW AS LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
AROUND 20. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE MON AS A COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENS
ALONG THE COAST AND THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP SOUTH LOW BEGINS TO LIFT
NEWD TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE
NW MONDAY MORNING...WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS ALL BUT SE VA/NE NC MON
AFTERNOON. WAA ALOFT/CRITICAL THICKNESSES STILL INDICATING A CHANGE
OVER FROM SN/IP MON MORNING TO RA CLOSER TO THE COAST MON AFTERNOON.
PTYPE LIKELY TO REMAIN ALL SNOW NW. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME TIMING
AND SPATIAL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...BUT CURRENT SNOWFALL
FORECAST CALLS FOR 1-2 INCHES ALONG THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR INTO
CENTRAL VA AND NRN VA...WITH 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE NW COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12/12Z NUMERICAL MODELS DEPICT LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NE FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS MONDAY EVENING...THEN RAPIDLY
DEEPENING AS IT LIFTS NE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY AS A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MIXED PCPN COULD CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING OVER THE PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD OCCUR IN
THE EVENING...WITH RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES SSE. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THE
LONGEST IN THE FAR NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES WHERE SOME POCKETS OF -FZRA
COULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT GENERALLY ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN ARE POSSIBLE LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A BAND OF STRONG VERTICAL ASCENT PASSES
OVER THE REGION. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS COULD PRODUCE A MODESTLY
STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE AREA FOR A 3-6HR
PERIOD TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM TO AT LEAST THE MID/UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH LOW 60S POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COAST...WHILE THE PIEDMONT STRUGGLES TO RISE ABOVE THE
UPPER 40S/LOW 50S. GENERALLY EXPECTING DRIER CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME 20-30% POPS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE N AS A
SECONDARY TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. DRY AND MILD
WEDNESDAY UNDER WNW FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. A
COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL...BUT WITHIN -1 ST DEV. A MODERATING TREND COMMENCES LATE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE
COAST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF COAST STATES
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS OF 01Z...SNOW HAS ENDED OVER SE VA/NE NC BUT CONTINUES OVER
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE. AS THE LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC
AIR APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH...THERE MAY BE MORE SNOW AT SBY.
HAVE LIGHT SNOW IN THE TAF FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD GO
TO IFR BUT NOT EXPECTED TO LAST FOR VERY LONG.

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS SE PORTIONS WITH SOME
IFR INDICATED AT ECG. CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY INDICATED FOR SATURDAY. THE
EXCEPTION WOULD BE AT SBY WHERE STRATOCU IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A
CEILING OF AROUND 5K FT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR SNOW ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING TURNING
TO RAIN FROM SE TO NW MONDAY AFTN. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS INDICATED
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. PERIODS OF IFR ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
PCPN. DRY AND VFR WEATHER RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
10 PM UPDATE...BEGAN MARINE HEADLINES WITH 10 PM ISSUANCE. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS INCREASE
WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS IN THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS BY AROUND 09Z.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING ENE OFF THE NC COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING ACROSS THE
ERN LAKES...WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT TRAILING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY...AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SPILLING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THE COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SN...WHICH WILL REDUCE VSBY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING (MAINLY S). AS THE LOW LIFTS TO
THE NE TONIGHT THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION
WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE
NW. A NW WIND WILL AVERAGE 25-30KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35-40KT
OVER THE OCEAN AND BAY. SEAS BUILD TO 5-8FT WITH 4-5 FT WAVES IN
THE BAY. GALE FLAGS CONTINUE FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND...WIND SPEEDS REMAIN CAPPED AT
HIGH-END SCA AT THIS TIME. FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED AS
TEMPERATURES PLUMMET SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FORM THE SW EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND TRACKS UP THE
PIEDMONT TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODESTLY STRONG SSE WIND
AND BUILDING SEAS/WAVES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE
BLOW-OUT TIDES / LOW WATER ADVISORIES FOR SOME AREAS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...AND MUCH OF THE COASTLINES SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. THE MAIN AREAS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THAT COULD HAVE
LOW WATER ARE ALONG THE ATLANITC COAST N OF CAPE CHARLES. A LOW
WATER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 08-13Z (3 TO 8 AM).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ633-635>638.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-
     654-656-658.
     LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652-654.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MAS/MPR
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ/LSA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ



000
FXUS61 KRNK 130408
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1108 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS EAST OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING. A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM OVERNIGHT
RESULTING IN VERY WINDY CONDITIONS AND BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH SOME ADDED SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE FAR
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO SATURDAY. BY MONDAY
ANOTHER WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT FRIDAY...

BITTER COLD AIR IS INBOUND. WINDS HAVE SWITCHED AROUND TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NOW ITS JUST A MATTER OF TIME BEFORE THE ARCTIC AIR
INFILTRATES THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. REGIONAL RADARS
INDICATE SOME INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THESE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A QUICK BURST OF SNOW WITH SNOWFALL
RATES OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH IN LESS THAN 30 MINUTES.
DELINEATION OF THE TRUE ARCTIC AIR RESIDES UPSTREAM OF THE LAST
NE-SW ORIENTED BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT YOU SEE ON RADAR.
TEMPERATURES FALL AT LEAST 10 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THIS
BOUNDARY...FROM THE MID 20S TO THE MID TEENS.

ARCTIC AIR WILL FLOW INTO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY AS DEEP 5H
TROFFINESS CARVES OUT ACROSS THE EAST. ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS
ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH 1-3
INCHES OF SNOW LIKELY FROM THE WV HIGHLANDS SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
WESTERN NEW RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...AND FLURRIES OUT TO THE BLUE RIDGE FOOTHILLS.

ASIDE FROM THE SNOW SHOWER THREAT...THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE THE
COMBINATION OF THE COLD AND WIND...MODELS INDICATING A 50+ KNOT
85H JET PLOWING IN ON VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND 85H TEMPS FALLING
TO BELOW -20C OVERNIGHT. THIS IS STRONG ENOUGH FOR NEAR WARNING
CRITERIA WIND SPEEDS TO BE REACHED OVER THE NW NC MOUNTAINS WITH
WIDESPREAD ADVISORY LEVELS OUT TO THE BLUE RIDGE. OF MOST CONCERN
THOUGH IS THE DANGEROUS WIND CHILL...SO PREFER TO USE ONE
HEADLINE AND HAVE THE STRONG WIND SPEEDS CONTAINED WITHIN THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. ATTM THINKING SATURDAYS SUNRISE
TEMPERATURE WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
AROUND 20 IN THE PIEDMONT WITH CHILLS WELL BELOW ZERO IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND BETWEEN ZERO AND 5 ABOVE IN THE PIEDMONT.

ARCTIC HIGH SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE NW DURING SATURDAY ALLOWING SOME
MID/LATE AFTERNOON DROP OFF IN WINDS BUT STILL FRIGID WITH HIGHS SINGLE
DIGITS/TEENS MOUNTAINS AND 20S TO NEAR 30 FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST. LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE MOISTURE LOOKS TO SLOWLY WANE SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT
STILL ENOUGH FOR HIGH POPS DURING THE MORNING...TAPERING TO
CHANCE COVERAGE LATER IN THE DAY. CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO SLOWLY FADE
FROM EAST TO WEST AS THE VERY DRY ARCTIC AIR SPILLS IN ALLOWING
FOR MORE SUN FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST AND BECOMING PC FAR WEST
LATE. STILL APPEARS THAT WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA COULD LINGER
INTO THE AFTERNOON SO FEW CHANGES WITH GOING HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EST FRIDAY...

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT
THEN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP
DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO A RANGE OF 10F-
15F IN THE EAST. EVEN WITH LIGHT WINDS...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE
BELOW ZERO SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS WILL
MODERATE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY PEAKING IN THE 20S.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN TEXAS SUNDAY
NIGHT. AS THIS LOW TRACKS EAST AND DEEPENS THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL GLIDE OVER THE ARCTIC HIGH...PRODUCING
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. AS THIS LOW APPROACHES THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...A WARM NOSE WILL BEGIN TO ENTER THE AREA...POSSIBLY
CHANGING SNOW OVER TO A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET, RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON A WINTER STORM FOR THE AREA BEGINNING
MONDAY...HOWEVER P-TYPE REMAINS THE BIGGEST QUESTION.
MODELS CONTINUE TO JUMP AROUND WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW. IF THE LOW
TRACKS NORTH FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND REMAINS WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS...P-TYPE WILL CHANGE FROM SNOW TO SLEET TO RAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. IF THE TRACK IS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS...A LONGER DURATION OF SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH A CHANGE
OVER TO SLEET/RAIN OCCURRING LATER MONDAY NIGHT. DYNAMICS AND LIFT
WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE VERY IMPRESSIVE...ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA. UPWARDS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID IS LIKELY...BUT AT
WHAT P-TYPE IT FALLS AS IS ANOTHER QUESTION TO ANSWER. FOR THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE...WE WILL KEEP P-TYPE SIMPLE WITH RAIN/SNOW. WE
WILL ALSO KEEP SNOWFALL LIGHT TO MODERATE AND NOT SPECULATE ON
AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EST FRIDAY...

EARLY TUESDAY MORNING A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE CWA...WITH THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND THEN SHIFTING TO MOVE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE FURTHER
SOUTHEAST THE SYSTEM MOVES THE MORE LIKELY THE PRECIPITATION WILL
FALL AS SNOW. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME WHETHER THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL COMPLETELY AS SNOW...RAIN...OR WINTRY
RAIN MIX. THE MODELS DAYTIME SURFACE TEMPERATURES STAY WARM ENOUGH
TO FAVOR RAIN FOR MAJORITY OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY IN THE PIEDMONT.
HOWEVER...SNOW COULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS THE RIDGES STAY
COLDER AND THE LOW PRESSURE BRINGS IN A COLDER WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE.

WEDNESDAY A CLIPPER SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE CWA BRINGING AN
ADDITIONAL CHANCE FOR SNOW AND COLD TEMPERATURES. THE GFS AND EURO
ARE IN DISAGREEMENT HOW MUCH MUCH SNOW BUT MODELS TEND TO AGREE THAT
THE WESTERN SLOPES WILL SEE SOME ACCUMULATIONS. A HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS IN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL START TO
WARM UP.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1150 AM EST FRIDAY...

MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY WILL BE LOW LEVEL
TURBULENCE GENERATED FROM STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS. AN ARCTIC FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL BRING ONSET OF
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS...SUSTAINED VALUES NEAR 20 KTS
ATTMS WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KTS. GUSTS NEAR 45 KTS ARE POSSIBLE
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING VCNTY OF KROA/KBCB/KTNB WHERE AIRFLOW WILL
BE THE STRONGEST OVER THE RIDGE CRESTS...SIMILAR TO WATER FLOWING
OVER A DAM.

IN ADDITION TO THE WIND...ANTICIPATE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS DUE TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NARROW CORRIDOR OF IFR
WILL EXIST ALONG THE NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIAN
DIVIDE FROM EKN-BLF-TNB WHERE VSBYS/CIGS MAY OBSCURE THE RIDGE
TOPS. EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...THE NORTHWEST WIND WILL RESULT IN
DOWNSLOPE DRYING WITH CLOUD BASES DISSOLVING AND RESULTING IN VFR.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY EVENING AND INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH NEAR CALM CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVERHEAD. MAIN CONCERN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BE
THE BITTER COLD...TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
ONSET OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT.  CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL EXIST FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WINTER STORM WILL PRODUCE A VARIETY OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...STARTING AS SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN TRANSITIONING
TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MONDAY. AFTER THE EARLY WEEK WINTER
STORM...THERE IS ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT THE
AREA FOR MID WEEK...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN THE CONTINUATION OF
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND. SEVERAL RECORD LOW
MAX TEMPERATURES AND LOW TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE. BELOW ARE THE
CURRENT RECORDS FOR SATURDAY 2/13 AND SUNDAY 2/14.

SATURDAY 02/13/2016
SITE   MINT YEAR  LOMAX YEAR
KBLF     4 1988     19 1988
KDAN    11 1955     32 1981
KLYH     5 1979      9 1899
KROA     8 1917     18 1914
KRNK    -4 1969     14 1955


SUNDAY 02/14/2016
SITE   MINT YEAR  LOMAX YEAR
KBLF     5 1971     16 1960
KDAN    15 1986     32 1986
KLYH     4 1899     24 1905
KROA    10 1943     26 1986
KRNK    -2 1969     24 1986

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VAZ007-009>020-
     022>024-032>035.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR VAZ007-009-
     015.
NC...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NCZ001-002-018.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ042>044-507.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR WVZ042-043-
     508.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/MBS
NEAR TERM...JH/PM
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...PM
CLIMATE...CF



000
FXUS61 KRNK 130408
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1108 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS EAST OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING. A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM OVERNIGHT
RESULTING IN VERY WINDY CONDITIONS AND BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH SOME ADDED SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE FAR
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO SATURDAY. BY MONDAY
ANOTHER WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT FRIDAY...

BITTER COLD AIR IS INBOUND. WINDS HAVE SWITCHED AROUND TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NOW ITS JUST A MATTER OF TIME BEFORE THE ARCTIC AIR
INFILTRATES THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. REGIONAL RADARS
INDICATE SOME INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THESE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A QUICK BURST OF SNOW WITH SNOWFALL
RATES OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH IN LESS THAN 30 MINUTES.
DELINEATION OF THE TRUE ARCTIC AIR RESIDES UPSTREAM OF THE LAST
NE-SW ORIENTED BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT YOU SEE ON RADAR.
TEMPERATURES FALL AT LEAST 10 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THIS
BOUNDARY...FROM THE MID 20S TO THE MID TEENS.

ARCTIC AIR WILL FLOW INTO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY AS DEEP 5H
TROFFINESS CARVES OUT ACROSS THE EAST. ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS
ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH 1-3
INCHES OF SNOW LIKELY FROM THE WV HIGHLANDS SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
WESTERN NEW RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...AND FLURRIES OUT TO THE BLUE RIDGE FOOTHILLS.

ASIDE FROM THE SNOW SHOWER THREAT...THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE THE
COMBINATION OF THE COLD AND WIND...MODELS INDICATING A 50+ KNOT
85H JET PLOWING IN ON VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND 85H TEMPS FALLING
TO BELOW -20C OVERNIGHT. THIS IS STRONG ENOUGH FOR NEAR WARNING
CRITERIA WIND SPEEDS TO BE REACHED OVER THE NW NC MOUNTAINS WITH
WIDESPREAD ADVISORY LEVELS OUT TO THE BLUE RIDGE. OF MOST CONCERN
THOUGH IS THE DANGEROUS WIND CHILL...SO PREFER TO USE ONE
HEADLINE AND HAVE THE STRONG WIND SPEEDS CONTAINED WITHIN THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. ATTM THINKING SATURDAYS SUNRISE
TEMPERATURE WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
AROUND 20 IN THE PIEDMONT WITH CHILLS WELL BELOW ZERO IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND BETWEEN ZERO AND 5 ABOVE IN THE PIEDMONT.

ARCTIC HIGH SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE NW DURING SATURDAY ALLOWING SOME
MID/LATE AFTERNOON DROP OFF IN WINDS BUT STILL FRIGID WITH HIGHS SINGLE
DIGITS/TEENS MOUNTAINS AND 20S TO NEAR 30 FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST. LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE MOISTURE LOOKS TO SLOWLY WANE SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT
STILL ENOUGH FOR HIGH POPS DURING THE MORNING...TAPERING TO
CHANCE COVERAGE LATER IN THE DAY. CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO SLOWLY FADE
FROM EAST TO WEST AS THE VERY DRY ARCTIC AIR SPILLS IN ALLOWING
FOR MORE SUN FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST AND BECOMING PC FAR WEST
LATE. STILL APPEARS THAT WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA COULD LINGER
INTO THE AFTERNOON SO FEW CHANGES WITH GOING HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EST FRIDAY...

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT
THEN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP
DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO A RANGE OF 10F-
15F IN THE EAST. EVEN WITH LIGHT WINDS...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE
BELOW ZERO SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS WILL
MODERATE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY PEAKING IN THE 20S.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN TEXAS SUNDAY
NIGHT. AS THIS LOW TRACKS EAST AND DEEPENS THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL GLIDE OVER THE ARCTIC HIGH...PRODUCING
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. AS THIS LOW APPROACHES THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...A WARM NOSE WILL BEGIN TO ENTER THE AREA...POSSIBLY
CHANGING SNOW OVER TO A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET, RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON A WINTER STORM FOR THE AREA BEGINNING
MONDAY...HOWEVER P-TYPE REMAINS THE BIGGEST QUESTION.
MODELS CONTINUE TO JUMP AROUND WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW. IF THE LOW
TRACKS NORTH FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND REMAINS WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS...P-TYPE WILL CHANGE FROM SNOW TO SLEET TO RAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. IF THE TRACK IS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS...A LONGER DURATION OF SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH A CHANGE
OVER TO SLEET/RAIN OCCURRING LATER MONDAY NIGHT. DYNAMICS AND LIFT
WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE VERY IMPRESSIVE...ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA. UPWARDS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID IS LIKELY...BUT AT
WHAT P-TYPE IT FALLS AS IS ANOTHER QUESTION TO ANSWER. FOR THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE...WE WILL KEEP P-TYPE SIMPLE WITH RAIN/SNOW. WE
WILL ALSO KEEP SNOWFALL LIGHT TO MODERATE AND NOT SPECULATE ON
AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EST FRIDAY...

EARLY TUESDAY MORNING A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE CWA...WITH THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND THEN SHIFTING TO MOVE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE FURTHER
SOUTHEAST THE SYSTEM MOVES THE MORE LIKELY THE PRECIPITATION WILL
FALL AS SNOW. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME WHETHER THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL COMPLETELY AS SNOW...RAIN...OR WINTRY
RAIN MIX. THE MODELS DAYTIME SURFACE TEMPERATURES STAY WARM ENOUGH
TO FAVOR RAIN FOR MAJORITY OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY IN THE PIEDMONT.
HOWEVER...SNOW COULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS THE RIDGES STAY
COLDER AND THE LOW PRESSURE BRINGS IN A COLDER WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE.

WEDNESDAY A CLIPPER SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE CWA BRINGING AN
ADDITIONAL CHANCE FOR SNOW AND COLD TEMPERATURES. THE GFS AND EURO
ARE IN DISAGREEMENT HOW MUCH MUCH SNOW BUT MODELS TEND TO AGREE THAT
THE WESTERN SLOPES WILL SEE SOME ACCUMULATIONS. A HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS IN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL START TO
WARM UP.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1150 AM EST FRIDAY...

MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY WILL BE LOW LEVEL
TURBULENCE GENERATED FROM STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS. AN ARCTIC FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL BRING ONSET OF
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS...SUSTAINED VALUES NEAR 20 KTS
ATTMS WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KTS. GUSTS NEAR 45 KTS ARE POSSIBLE
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING VCNTY OF KROA/KBCB/KTNB WHERE AIRFLOW WILL
BE THE STRONGEST OVER THE RIDGE CRESTS...SIMILAR TO WATER FLOWING
OVER A DAM.

IN ADDITION TO THE WIND...ANTICIPATE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS DUE TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NARROW CORRIDOR OF IFR
WILL EXIST ALONG THE NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIAN
DIVIDE FROM EKN-BLF-TNB WHERE VSBYS/CIGS MAY OBSCURE THE RIDGE
TOPS. EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...THE NORTHWEST WIND WILL RESULT IN
DOWNSLOPE DRYING WITH CLOUD BASES DISSOLVING AND RESULTING IN VFR.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY EVENING AND INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH NEAR CALM CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVERHEAD. MAIN CONCERN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BE
THE BITTER COLD...TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
ONSET OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT.  CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL EXIST FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WINTER STORM WILL PRODUCE A VARIETY OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...STARTING AS SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN TRANSITIONING
TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MONDAY. AFTER THE EARLY WEEK WINTER
STORM...THERE IS ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT THE
AREA FOR MID WEEK...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN THE CONTINUATION OF
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND. SEVERAL RECORD LOW
MAX TEMPERATURES AND LOW TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE. BELOW ARE THE
CURRENT RECORDS FOR SATURDAY 2/13 AND SUNDAY 2/14.

SATURDAY 02/13/2016
SITE   MINT YEAR  LOMAX YEAR
KBLF     4 1988     19 1988
KDAN    11 1955     32 1981
KLYH     5 1979      9 1899
KROA     8 1917     18 1914
KRNK    -4 1969     14 1955


SUNDAY 02/14/2016
SITE   MINT YEAR  LOMAX YEAR
KBLF     5 1971     16 1960
KDAN    15 1986     32 1986
KLYH     4 1899     24 1905
KROA    10 1943     26 1986
KRNK    -2 1969     24 1986

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VAZ007-009>020-
     022>024-032>035.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR VAZ007-009-
     015.
NC...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NCZ001-002-018.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ042>044-507.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR WVZ042-043-
     508.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/MBS
NEAR TERM...JH/PM
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...PM
CLIMATE...CF




000
FXUS61 KRNK 130408
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1108 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS EAST OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING. A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM OVERNIGHT
RESULTING IN VERY WINDY CONDITIONS AND BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH SOME ADDED SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE FAR
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO SATURDAY. BY MONDAY
ANOTHER WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT FRIDAY...

BITTER COLD AIR IS INBOUND. WINDS HAVE SWITCHED AROUND TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NOW ITS JUST A MATTER OF TIME BEFORE THE ARCTIC AIR
INFILTRATES THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. REGIONAL RADARS
INDICATE SOME INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THESE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A QUICK BURST OF SNOW WITH SNOWFALL
RATES OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH IN LESS THAN 30 MINUTES.
DELINEATION OF THE TRUE ARCTIC AIR RESIDES UPSTREAM OF THE LAST
NE-SW ORIENTED BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT YOU SEE ON RADAR.
TEMPERATURES FALL AT LEAST 10 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THIS
BOUNDARY...FROM THE MID 20S TO THE MID TEENS.

ARCTIC AIR WILL FLOW INTO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY AS DEEP 5H
TROFFINESS CARVES OUT ACROSS THE EAST. ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS
ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH 1-3
INCHES OF SNOW LIKELY FROM THE WV HIGHLANDS SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
WESTERN NEW RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...AND FLURRIES OUT TO THE BLUE RIDGE FOOTHILLS.

ASIDE FROM THE SNOW SHOWER THREAT...THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE THE
COMBINATION OF THE COLD AND WIND...MODELS INDICATING A 50+ KNOT
85H JET PLOWING IN ON VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND 85H TEMPS FALLING
TO BELOW -20C OVERNIGHT. THIS IS STRONG ENOUGH FOR NEAR WARNING
CRITERIA WIND SPEEDS TO BE REACHED OVER THE NW NC MOUNTAINS WITH
WIDESPREAD ADVISORY LEVELS OUT TO THE BLUE RIDGE. OF MOST CONCERN
THOUGH IS THE DANGEROUS WIND CHILL...SO PREFER TO USE ONE
HEADLINE AND HAVE THE STRONG WIND SPEEDS CONTAINED WITHIN THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. ATTM THINKING SATURDAYS SUNRISE
TEMPERATURE WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
AROUND 20 IN THE PIEDMONT WITH CHILLS WELL BELOW ZERO IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND BETWEEN ZERO AND 5 ABOVE IN THE PIEDMONT.

ARCTIC HIGH SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE NW DURING SATURDAY ALLOWING SOME
MID/LATE AFTERNOON DROP OFF IN WINDS BUT STILL FRIGID WITH HIGHS SINGLE
DIGITS/TEENS MOUNTAINS AND 20S TO NEAR 30 FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST. LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE MOISTURE LOOKS TO SLOWLY WANE SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT
STILL ENOUGH FOR HIGH POPS DURING THE MORNING...TAPERING TO
CHANCE COVERAGE LATER IN THE DAY. CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO SLOWLY FADE
FROM EAST TO WEST AS THE VERY DRY ARCTIC AIR SPILLS IN ALLOWING
FOR MORE SUN FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST AND BECOMING PC FAR WEST
LATE. STILL APPEARS THAT WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA COULD LINGER
INTO THE AFTERNOON SO FEW CHANGES WITH GOING HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EST FRIDAY...

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT
THEN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP
DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO A RANGE OF 10F-
15F IN THE EAST. EVEN WITH LIGHT WINDS...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE
BELOW ZERO SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS WILL
MODERATE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY PEAKING IN THE 20S.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN TEXAS SUNDAY
NIGHT. AS THIS LOW TRACKS EAST AND DEEPENS THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL GLIDE OVER THE ARCTIC HIGH...PRODUCING
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. AS THIS LOW APPROACHES THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...A WARM NOSE WILL BEGIN TO ENTER THE AREA...POSSIBLY
CHANGING SNOW OVER TO A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET, RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON A WINTER STORM FOR THE AREA BEGINNING
MONDAY...HOWEVER P-TYPE REMAINS THE BIGGEST QUESTION.
MODELS CONTINUE TO JUMP AROUND WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW. IF THE LOW
TRACKS NORTH FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND REMAINS WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS...P-TYPE WILL CHANGE FROM SNOW TO SLEET TO RAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. IF THE TRACK IS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS...A LONGER DURATION OF SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH A CHANGE
OVER TO SLEET/RAIN OCCURRING LATER MONDAY NIGHT. DYNAMICS AND LIFT
WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE VERY IMPRESSIVE...ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA. UPWARDS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID IS LIKELY...BUT AT
WHAT P-TYPE IT FALLS AS IS ANOTHER QUESTION TO ANSWER. FOR THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE...WE WILL KEEP P-TYPE SIMPLE WITH RAIN/SNOW. WE
WILL ALSO KEEP SNOWFALL LIGHT TO MODERATE AND NOT SPECULATE ON
AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EST FRIDAY...

EARLY TUESDAY MORNING A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE CWA...WITH THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND THEN SHIFTING TO MOVE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE FURTHER
SOUTHEAST THE SYSTEM MOVES THE MORE LIKELY THE PRECIPITATION WILL
FALL AS SNOW. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME WHETHER THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL COMPLETELY AS SNOW...RAIN...OR WINTRY
RAIN MIX. THE MODELS DAYTIME SURFACE TEMPERATURES STAY WARM ENOUGH
TO FAVOR RAIN FOR MAJORITY OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY IN THE PIEDMONT.
HOWEVER...SNOW COULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS THE RIDGES STAY
COLDER AND THE LOW PRESSURE BRINGS IN A COLDER WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE.

WEDNESDAY A CLIPPER SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE CWA BRINGING AN
ADDITIONAL CHANCE FOR SNOW AND COLD TEMPERATURES. THE GFS AND EURO
ARE IN DISAGREEMENT HOW MUCH MUCH SNOW BUT MODELS TEND TO AGREE THAT
THE WESTERN SLOPES WILL SEE SOME ACCUMULATIONS. A HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS IN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL START TO
WARM UP.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1150 AM EST FRIDAY...

MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY WILL BE LOW LEVEL
TURBULENCE GENERATED FROM STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS. AN ARCTIC FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL BRING ONSET OF
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS...SUSTAINED VALUES NEAR 20 KTS
ATTMS WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KTS. GUSTS NEAR 45 KTS ARE POSSIBLE
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING VCNTY OF KROA/KBCB/KTNB WHERE AIRFLOW WILL
BE THE STRONGEST OVER THE RIDGE CRESTS...SIMILAR TO WATER FLOWING
OVER A DAM.

IN ADDITION TO THE WIND...ANTICIPATE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS DUE TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NARROW CORRIDOR OF IFR
WILL EXIST ALONG THE NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIAN
DIVIDE FROM EKN-BLF-TNB WHERE VSBYS/CIGS MAY OBSCURE THE RIDGE
TOPS. EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...THE NORTHWEST WIND WILL RESULT IN
DOWNSLOPE DRYING WITH CLOUD BASES DISSOLVING AND RESULTING IN VFR.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY EVENING AND INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH NEAR CALM CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVERHEAD. MAIN CONCERN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BE
THE BITTER COLD...TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
ONSET OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT.  CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL EXIST FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WINTER STORM WILL PRODUCE A VARIETY OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...STARTING AS SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN TRANSITIONING
TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MONDAY. AFTER THE EARLY WEEK WINTER
STORM...THERE IS ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT THE
AREA FOR MID WEEK...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN THE CONTINUATION OF
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND. SEVERAL RECORD LOW
MAX TEMPERATURES AND LOW TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE. BELOW ARE THE
CURRENT RECORDS FOR SATURDAY 2/13 AND SUNDAY 2/14.

SATURDAY 02/13/2016
SITE   MINT YEAR  LOMAX YEAR
KBLF     4 1988     19 1988
KDAN    11 1955     32 1981
KLYH     5 1979      9 1899
KROA     8 1917     18 1914
KRNK    -4 1969     14 1955


SUNDAY 02/14/2016
SITE   MINT YEAR  LOMAX YEAR
KBLF     5 1971     16 1960
KDAN    15 1986     32 1986
KLYH     4 1899     24 1905
KROA    10 1943     26 1986
KRNK    -2 1969     24 1986

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VAZ007-009>020-
     022>024-032>035.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR VAZ007-009-
     015.
NC...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NCZ001-002-018.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ042>044-507.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR WVZ042-043-
     508.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/MBS
NEAR TERM...JH/PM
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...PM
CLIMATE...CF




000
FXUS61 KRNK 130408
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1108 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS EAST OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING. A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM OVERNIGHT
RESULTING IN VERY WINDY CONDITIONS AND BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH SOME ADDED SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE FAR
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO SATURDAY. BY MONDAY
ANOTHER WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT FRIDAY...

BITTER COLD AIR IS INBOUND. WINDS HAVE SWITCHED AROUND TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NOW ITS JUST A MATTER OF TIME BEFORE THE ARCTIC AIR
INFILTRATES THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. REGIONAL RADARS
INDICATE SOME INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THESE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A QUICK BURST OF SNOW WITH SNOWFALL
RATES OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH IN LESS THAN 30 MINUTES.
DELINEATION OF THE TRUE ARCTIC AIR RESIDES UPSTREAM OF THE LAST
NE-SW ORIENTED BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT YOU SEE ON RADAR.
TEMPERATURES FALL AT LEAST 10 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THIS
BOUNDARY...FROM THE MID 20S TO THE MID TEENS.

ARCTIC AIR WILL FLOW INTO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY AS DEEP 5H
TROFFINESS CARVES OUT ACROSS THE EAST. ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS
ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH 1-3
INCHES OF SNOW LIKELY FROM THE WV HIGHLANDS SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
WESTERN NEW RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...AND FLURRIES OUT TO THE BLUE RIDGE FOOTHILLS.

ASIDE FROM THE SNOW SHOWER THREAT...THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE THE
COMBINATION OF THE COLD AND WIND...MODELS INDICATING A 50+ KNOT
85H JET PLOWING IN ON VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND 85H TEMPS FALLING
TO BELOW -20C OVERNIGHT. THIS IS STRONG ENOUGH FOR NEAR WARNING
CRITERIA WIND SPEEDS TO BE REACHED OVER THE NW NC MOUNTAINS WITH
WIDESPREAD ADVISORY LEVELS OUT TO THE BLUE RIDGE. OF MOST CONCERN
THOUGH IS THE DANGEROUS WIND CHILL...SO PREFER TO USE ONE
HEADLINE AND HAVE THE STRONG WIND SPEEDS CONTAINED WITHIN THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. ATTM THINKING SATURDAYS SUNRISE
TEMPERATURE WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
AROUND 20 IN THE PIEDMONT WITH CHILLS WELL BELOW ZERO IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND BETWEEN ZERO AND 5 ABOVE IN THE PIEDMONT.

ARCTIC HIGH SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE NW DURING SATURDAY ALLOWING SOME
MID/LATE AFTERNOON DROP OFF IN WINDS BUT STILL FRIGID WITH HIGHS SINGLE
DIGITS/TEENS MOUNTAINS AND 20S TO NEAR 30 FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST. LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE MOISTURE LOOKS TO SLOWLY WANE SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT
STILL ENOUGH FOR HIGH POPS DURING THE MORNING...TAPERING TO
CHANCE COVERAGE LATER IN THE DAY. CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO SLOWLY FADE
FROM EAST TO WEST AS THE VERY DRY ARCTIC AIR SPILLS IN ALLOWING
FOR MORE SUN FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST AND BECOMING PC FAR WEST
LATE. STILL APPEARS THAT WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA COULD LINGER
INTO THE AFTERNOON SO FEW CHANGES WITH GOING HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EST FRIDAY...

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT
THEN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP
DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO A RANGE OF 10F-
15F IN THE EAST. EVEN WITH LIGHT WINDS...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE
BELOW ZERO SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS WILL
MODERATE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY PEAKING IN THE 20S.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN TEXAS SUNDAY
NIGHT. AS THIS LOW TRACKS EAST AND DEEPENS THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL GLIDE OVER THE ARCTIC HIGH...PRODUCING
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. AS THIS LOW APPROACHES THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...A WARM NOSE WILL BEGIN TO ENTER THE AREA...POSSIBLY
CHANGING SNOW OVER TO A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET, RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON A WINTER STORM FOR THE AREA BEGINNING
MONDAY...HOWEVER P-TYPE REMAINS THE BIGGEST QUESTION.
MODELS CONTINUE TO JUMP AROUND WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW. IF THE LOW
TRACKS NORTH FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND REMAINS WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS...P-TYPE WILL CHANGE FROM SNOW TO SLEET TO RAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. IF THE TRACK IS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS...A LONGER DURATION OF SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH A CHANGE
OVER TO SLEET/RAIN OCCURRING LATER MONDAY NIGHT. DYNAMICS AND LIFT
WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE VERY IMPRESSIVE...ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA. UPWARDS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID IS LIKELY...BUT AT
WHAT P-TYPE IT FALLS AS IS ANOTHER QUESTION TO ANSWER. FOR THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE...WE WILL KEEP P-TYPE SIMPLE WITH RAIN/SNOW. WE
WILL ALSO KEEP SNOWFALL LIGHT TO MODERATE AND NOT SPECULATE ON
AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EST FRIDAY...

EARLY TUESDAY MORNING A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE CWA...WITH THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND THEN SHIFTING TO MOVE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE FURTHER
SOUTHEAST THE SYSTEM MOVES THE MORE LIKELY THE PRECIPITATION WILL
FALL AS SNOW. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME WHETHER THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL COMPLETELY AS SNOW...RAIN...OR WINTRY
RAIN MIX. THE MODELS DAYTIME SURFACE TEMPERATURES STAY WARM ENOUGH
TO FAVOR RAIN FOR MAJORITY OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY IN THE PIEDMONT.
HOWEVER...SNOW COULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS THE RIDGES STAY
COLDER AND THE LOW PRESSURE BRINGS IN A COLDER WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE.

WEDNESDAY A CLIPPER SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE CWA BRINGING AN
ADDITIONAL CHANCE FOR SNOW AND COLD TEMPERATURES. THE GFS AND EURO
ARE IN DISAGREEMENT HOW MUCH MUCH SNOW BUT MODELS TEND TO AGREE THAT
THE WESTERN SLOPES WILL SEE SOME ACCUMULATIONS. A HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS IN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL START TO
WARM UP.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1150 AM EST FRIDAY...

MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY WILL BE LOW LEVEL
TURBULENCE GENERATED FROM STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS. AN ARCTIC FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL BRING ONSET OF
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS...SUSTAINED VALUES NEAR 20 KTS
ATTMS WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KTS. GUSTS NEAR 45 KTS ARE POSSIBLE
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING VCNTY OF KROA/KBCB/KTNB WHERE AIRFLOW WILL
BE THE STRONGEST OVER THE RIDGE CRESTS...SIMILAR TO WATER FLOWING
OVER A DAM.

IN ADDITION TO THE WIND...ANTICIPATE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS DUE TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NARROW CORRIDOR OF IFR
WILL EXIST ALONG THE NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIAN
DIVIDE FROM EKN-BLF-TNB WHERE VSBYS/CIGS MAY OBSCURE THE RIDGE
TOPS. EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...THE NORTHWEST WIND WILL RESULT IN
DOWNSLOPE DRYING WITH CLOUD BASES DISSOLVING AND RESULTING IN VFR.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY EVENING AND INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH NEAR CALM CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVERHEAD. MAIN CONCERN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BE
THE BITTER COLD...TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
ONSET OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT.  CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL EXIST FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WINTER STORM WILL PRODUCE A VARIETY OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...STARTING AS SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN TRANSITIONING
TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MONDAY. AFTER THE EARLY WEEK WINTER
STORM...THERE IS ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT THE
AREA FOR MID WEEK...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN THE CONTINUATION OF
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND. SEVERAL RECORD LOW
MAX TEMPERATURES AND LOW TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE. BELOW ARE THE
CURRENT RECORDS FOR SATURDAY 2/13 AND SUNDAY 2/14.

SATURDAY 02/13/2016
SITE   MINT YEAR  LOMAX YEAR
KBLF     4 1988     19 1988
KDAN    11 1955     32 1981
KLYH     5 1979      9 1899
KROA     8 1917     18 1914
KRNK    -4 1969     14 1955


SUNDAY 02/14/2016
SITE   MINT YEAR  LOMAX YEAR
KBLF     5 1971     16 1960
KDAN    15 1986     32 1986
KLYH     4 1899     24 1905
KROA    10 1943     26 1986
KRNK    -2 1969     24 1986

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VAZ007-009>020-
     022>024-032>035.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR VAZ007-009-
     015.
NC...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NCZ001-002-018.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ042>044-507.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR WVZ042-043-
     508.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/MBS
NEAR TERM...JH/PM
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...PM
CLIMATE...CF




000
FXUS61 KRNK 130408
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1108 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS EAST OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING. A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM OVERNIGHT
RESULTING IN VERY WINDY CONDITIONS AND BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH SOME ADDED SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE FAR
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO SATURDAY. BY MONDAY
ANOTHER WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT FRIDAY...

BITTER COLD AIR IS INBOUND. WINDS HAVE SWITCHED AROUND TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NOW ITS JUST A MATTER OF TIME BEFORE THE ARCTIC AIR
INFILTRATES THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. REGIONAL RADARS
INDICATE SOME INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THESE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A QUICK BURST OF SNOW WITH SNOWFALL
RATES OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH IN LESS THAN 30 MINUTES.
DELINEATION OF THE TRUE ARCTIC AIR RESIDES UPSTREAM OF THE LAST
NE-SW ORIENTED BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT YOU SEE ON RADAR.
TEMPERATURES FALL AT LEAST 10 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THIS
BOUNDARY...FROM THE MID 20S TO THE MID TEENS.

ARCTIC AIR WILL FLOW INTO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY AS DEEP 5H
TROFFINESS CARVES OUT ACROSS THE EAST. ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS
ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH 1-3
INCHES OF SNOW LIKELY FROM THE WV HIGHLANDS SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
WESTERN NEW RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...AND FLURRIES OUT TO THE BLUE RIDGE FOOTHILLS.

ASIDE FROM THE SNOW SHOWER THREAT...THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE THE
COMBINATION OF THE COLD AND WIND...MODELS INDICATING A 50+ KNOT
85H JET PLOWING IN ON VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND 85H TEMPS FALLING
TO BELOW -20C OVERNIGHT. THIS IS STRONG ENOUGH FOR NEAR WARNING
CRITERIA WIND SPEEDS TO BE REACHED OVER THE NW NC MOUNTAINS WITH
WIDESPREAD ADVISORY LEVELS OUT TO THE BLUE RIDGE. OF MOST CONCERN
THOUGH IS THE DANGEROUS WIND CHILL...SO PREFER TO USE ONE
HEADLINE AND HAVE THE STRONG WIND SPEEDS CONTAINED WITHIN THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. ATTM THINKING SATURDAYS SUNRISE
TEMPERATURE WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
AROUND 20 IN THE PIEDMONT WITH CHILLS WELL BELOW ZERO IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND BETWEEN ZERO AND 5 ABOVE IN THE PIEDMONT.

ARCTIC HIGH SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE NW DURING SATURDAY ALLOWING SOME
MID/LATE AFTERNOON DROP OFF IN WINDS BUT STILL FRIGID WITH HIGHS SINGLE
DIGITS/TEENS MOUNTAINS AND 20S TO NEAR 30 FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST. LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE MOISTURE LOOKS TO SLOWLY WANE SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT
STILL ENOUGH FOR HIGH POPS DURING THE MORNING...TAPERING TO
CHANCE COVERAGE LATER IN THE DAY. CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO SLOWLY FADE
FROM EAST TO WEST AS THE VERY DRY ARCTIC AIR SPILLS IN ALLOWING
FOR MORE SUN FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST AND BECOMING PC FAR WEST
LATE. STILL APPEARS THAT WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA COULD LINGER
INTO THE AFTERNOON SO FEW CHANGES WITH GOING HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EST FRIDAY...

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT
THEN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP
DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO A RANGE OF 10F-
15F IN THE EAST. EVEN WITH LIGHT WINDS...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE
BELOW ZERO SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS WILL
MODERATE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY PEAKING IN THE 20S.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN TEXAS SUNDAY
NIGHT. AS THIS LOW TRACKS EAST AND DEEPENS THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL GLIDE OVER THE ARCTIC HIGH...PRODUCING
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. AS THIS LOW APPROACHES THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...A WARM NOSE WILL BEGIN TO ENTER THE AREA...POSSIBLY
CHANGING SNOW OVER TO A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET, RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON A WINTER STORM FOR THE AREA BEGINNING
MONDAY...HOWEVER P-TYPE REMAINS THE BIGGEST QUESTION.
MODELS CONTINUE TO JUMP AROUND WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW. IF THE LOW
TRACKS NORTH FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND REMAINS WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS...P-TYPE WILL CHANGE FROM SNOW TO SLEET TO RAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. IF THE TRACK IS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS...A LONGER DURATION OF SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH A CHANGE
OVER TO SLEET/RAIN OCCURRING LATER MONDAY NIGHT. DYNAMICS AND LIFT
WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE VERY IMPRESSIVE...ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA. UPWARDS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID IS LIKELY...BUT AT
WHAT P-TYPE IT FALLS AS IS ANOTHER QUESTION TO ANSWER. FOR THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE...WE WILL KEEP P-TYPE SIMPLE WITH RAIN/SNOW. WE
WILL ALSO KEEP SNOWFALL LIGHT TO MODERATE AND NOT SPECULATE ON
AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EST FRIDAY...

EARLY TUESDAY MORNING A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE CWA...WITH THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND THEN SHIFTING TO MOVE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE FURTHER
SOUTHEAST THE SYSTEM MOVES THE MORE LIKELY THE PRECIPITATION WILL
FALL AS SNOW. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME WHETHER THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL COMPLETELY AS SNOW...RAIN...OR WINTRY
RAIN MIX. THE MODELS DAYTIME SURFACE TEMPERATURES STAY WARM ENOUGH
TO FAVOR RAIN FOR MAJORITY OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY IN THE PIEDMONT.
HOWEVER...SNOW COULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS THE RIDGES STAY
COLDER AND THE LOW PRESSURE BRINGS IN A COLDER WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE.

WEDNESDAY A CLIPPER SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE CWA BRINGING AN
ADDITIONAL CHANCE FOR SNOW AND COLD TEMPERATURES. THE GFS AND EURO
ARE IN DISAGREEMENT HOW MUCH MUCH SNOW BUT MODELS TEND TO AGREE THAT
THE WESTERN SLOPES WILL SEE SOME ACCUMULATIONS. A HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS IN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL START TO
WARM UP.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1150 AM EST FRIDAY...

MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY WILL BE LOW LEVEL
TURBULENCE GENERATED FROM STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS. AN ARCTIC FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL BRING ONSET OF
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS...SUSTAINED VALUES NEAR 20 KTS
ATTMS WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KTS. GUSTS NEAR 45 KTS ARE POSSIBLE
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING VCNTY OF KROA/KBCB/KTNB WHERE AIRFLOW WILL
BE THE STRONGEST OVER THE RIDGE CRESTS...SIMILAR TO WATER FLOWING
OVER A DAM.

IN ADDITION TO THE WIND...ANTICIPATE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS DUE TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NARROW CORRIDOR OF IFR
WILL EXIST ALONG THE NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIAN
DIVIDE FROM EKN-BLF-TNB WHERE VSBYS/CIGS MAY OBSCURE THE RIDGE
TOPS. EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...THE NORTHWEST WIND WILL RESULT IN
DOWNSLOPE DRYING WITH CLOUD BASES DISSOLVING AND RESULTING IN VFR.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY EVENING AND INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH NEAR CALM CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVERHEAD. MAIN CONCERN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BE
THE BITTER COLD...TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
ONSET OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT.  CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL EXIST FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WINTER STORM WILL PRODUCE A VARIETY OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...STARTING AS SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN TRANSITIONING
TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MONDAY. AFTER THE EARLY WEEK WINTER
STORM...THERE IS ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT THE
AREA FOR MID WEEK...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN THE CONTINUATION OF
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND. SEVERAL RECORD LOW
MAX TEMPERATURES AND LOW TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE. BELOW ARE THE
CURRENT RECORDS FOR SATURDAY 2/13 AND SUNDAY 2/14.

SATURDAY 02/13/2016
SITE   MINT YEAR  LOMAX YEAR
KBLF     4 1988     19 1988
KDAN    11 1955     32 1981
KLYH     5 1979      9 1899
KROA     8 1917     18 1914
KRNK    -4 1969     14 1955


SUNDAY 02/14/2016
SITE   MINT YEAR  LOMAX YEAR
KBLF     5 1971     16 1960
KDAN    15 1986     32 1986
KLYH     4 1899     24 1905
KROA    10 1943     26 1986
KRNK    -2 1969     24 1986

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VAZ007-009>020-
     022>024-032>035.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR VAZ007-009-
     015.
NC...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NCZ001-002-018.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ042>044-507.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR WVZ042-043-
     508.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/MBS
NEAR TERM...JH/PM
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...PM
CLIMATE...CF




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 130325
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1025 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST THIS EVENING.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING
IN THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS YEAR. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST UPDATED TO CANCEL THE WINTER STORM WARNG AND ADVSRY WITH
SNOW ENDING ACROSS SE VA/NE NC. WILL ISSUE A SPS FOR BLACK ICE
OVER THESE AREAS TNGT. -SN CONTINUES OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE
TNGT...WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TO STAY BLO ONE INCH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CENTERS 1014MB SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NC
COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS AREA OF LIGHT
SNOW MOVING ACROSS EAST/SOUTHEAST VA...WITH OBS AND RADAR RETURNS
INDICATING HEAVIEST SNOW OVER NE NC. THE HEAVIEST BAND OF
SNOW/SLEET AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING REMAINS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH
OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE HIGHLIGHTED
AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LIGHT SNOW WILL WIND DOWN ACROSS ERN
VA INTO SE VA BY 5 PM...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION.
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH AN ADDITIONAL 0.5 INCH OF
SNOWFALL STILL POSSIBLE BACK INTO ISLE OF WIGHT AND SOUTHAMPTON
COUNTIES. THE SFC LOW DEEPENS AND LIFTS NEWD AS THE UPPER LEVEL
WAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE. SNOW BAND WILL PIVOT INTO SE VA LATE TODAY
BEFORE THE LIGHT SNOW FINALLY PUSHES OFFSHORE EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY THEN PUSHES THRU THE REGION THIS EVENING. HAVE
INCREASED POPS FOR THE MD ERN SHORE TO LIKELY LATE THIS EVENING AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALONG THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1
TO 2 INCHES. NW WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY...INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH
COASTAL AREAS AND THE ERN SHORE. SKY CLEARS SW TO NE LATE
TONIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.
WIND CHILLS WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH LOCATES OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES SAT AS THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY PUSHES OFFSHORE. POLAR FRONT
PROGGED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS
INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE SAT...USHERING IN SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON. H85 TEMPS PLUMMET TO AROUND -18 TO -20C (-2 TO -3 STD
DEV). HIGHS ONLY FORECAST IN THE MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW 30S SE.
WINDY...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30 TO
35 MPH. GUSTS OVER THE EASTERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED TO
REACH 40 MPH. WHILE THE AIR MASS REMAINS VERY DRY (DEWPOINTS BELOW
0)...BAY STREAMERS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ERN
SHORE. WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE. SKY AVERAGES SUNNY
SOUTHWEST TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE. LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE IN WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION SAT NIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH INLAND...ALLOWING FOR GREAT
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWS PLUNGING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS INLAND TO UPPER TEENS NEAR THE COAST. WIND CHILL VALUES
GENERALLY 0 TO 5 ABOVE INLAND AND AROUND 5 BELOW NRN NECK TO THE ERN
SHORE. WILL HOLD OFF ON WIND CHILL ADVISORY ATTM.

THE ARCTIC HIGH CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC SUN...WITH HIGHS ONLY
WARMING INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S (-2 STD DEV). SKY AVERAGES MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH A LIGHT NY WIND. MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

THE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUN NIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. NRN STREAM ENERGY LIFTS
NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT/MONDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS MON. SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. POPS INCREASE LATE SUN
NIGHT AS THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM WEAKENS AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. AIR MASS WILL EASILY BE COLD ENOUGH SUN
NIGHT FOR ALL SNOW AS LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
AROUND 20. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE MON AS A COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENS
ALONG THE COAST AND THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP SOUTH LOW BEGINS TO LIFT
NEWD TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE
NW MONDAY MORNING...WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS ALL BUT SE VA/NE NC MON
AFTERNOON. WAA ALOFT/CRITICAL THICKNESSES STILL INDICATING A CHANGE
OVER FROM SN/IP MON MORNING TO RA CLOSER TO THE COAST MON AFTERNOON.
PTYPE LIKELY TO REMAIN ALL SNOW NW. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME TIMING
AND SPATIAL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...BUT CURRENT SNOWFALL
FORECAST CALLS FOR 1-2 INCHES ALONG THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR INTO
CENTRAL VA AND NRN VA...WITH 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE NW COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12/12Z NUMERICAL MODELS DEPICT LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NE FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS MONDAY EVENING...THEN RAPIDLY
DEEPENING AS IT LIFTS NE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY AS A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MIXED PCPN COULD CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING OVER THE PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD OCCUR IN
THE EVENING...WITH RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES SSE. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THE
LONGEST IN THE FAR NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES WHERE SOME POCKETS OF -FZRA
COULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT GENERALLY ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN ARE POSSIBLE LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A BAND OF STRONG VERTICAL ASCENT PASSES
OVER THE REGION. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS COULD PRODUCE A MODESTLY
STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE AREA FOR A 3-6HR
PERIOD TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM TO AT LEAST THE MID/UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH LOW 60S POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COAST...WHILE THE PIEDMONT STRUGGLES TO RISE ABOVE THE
UPPER 40S/LOW 50S. GENERALLY EXPECTING DRIER CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME 20-30% POPS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE N AS A
SECONDARY TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. DRY AND MILD
WEDNESDAY UNDER WNW FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. A
COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL...BUT WITHIN -1 ST DEV. A MODERATING TREND COMMENCES LATE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE
COAST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF COAST STATES
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS OF 01Z...SNOW HAS ENDED OVER SE VA/NE NC BUT CONTINUES OVER
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE. AS THE LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC
AIR APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH...THERE MAY BE MORE SNOW AT SBY.
HAVE LIGHT SNOW IN THE TAF FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD GO
TO IFR BUT NOT EXPECTED TO LAST FOR VERY LONG.

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS SE PORTIONS WITH SOME
IFR INDICATED AT ECG. CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY INDICATED FOR SATURDAY. THE
EXCEPTION WOULD BE AT SBY WHERE STRATOCU IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A
CEILING OF AROUND 5K FT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR SNOW ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING TURNING
TO RAIN FROM SE TO NW MONDAY AFTN. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS INDICATED
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. PERIODS OF IFR ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
PCPN. DRY AND VFR WEATHER RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
10 PM UPDATE...BEGAN MARINE HEADLINES WITH 10 PM ISSUANCE. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS INCREASE
WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS IN THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS BY AROUND 09Z.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING ENE OFF THE NC COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING ACROSS THE
ERN LAKES...WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT TRAILING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY...AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SPILLING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THE COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SN...WHICH WILL REDUCE VSBY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING (MAINLY S). AS THE LOW LIFTS TO
THE NE TONIGHT THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION
WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE
NW. A NW WIND WILL AVERAGE 25-30KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35-40KT
OVER THE OCEAN AND BAY. SEAS BUILD TO 5-8FT WITH 4-5 FT WAVES IN
THE BAY. GALE FLAGS CONTINUE FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND...WIND SPEEDS REMAIN CAPPED AT
HIGH-END SCA AT THIS TIME. FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED AS
TEMPERATURES PLUMMET SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FORM THE SW EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND TRACKS UP THE
PIEDMONT TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODESTLY STRONG SSE WIND
AND BUILDING SEAS/WAVES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE
BLOW-OUT TIDES / LOW WATER ADVISORIES FOR SOME AREAS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...AND MUCH OF THE COASTLINES SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. THE MAIN AREAS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THAT COULD HAVE
LOW WATER ARE ALONG THE ATLANITC COAST N OF CAPE CHARLES. A LOW
WATER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 08-13Z (3 TO 8 AM).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ633-635>638.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-
     654-656-658.
     LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652-654.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM
NEAR TERM...MAS/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ/LSA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KLWX 130251
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
951 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE
WILL IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AND
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A POTENT COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING WILL PASS
THROUGH OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. SOME LEADING SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
MODEST WARM ADVECTION HAS PRODUCED A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...WITH AS
MUCH AS AN INCH OR TWO IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA ALREADY...BUT
GENERALLY TOTALS IN THE METRO SHOULD BE A HALF INCH OR LESS.
GIVEN THE RECENT COLD CONDITIONS EVEN A LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL CAUSE SLIPPERY CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED SURFACES. A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG COLD
ADVECTION AND AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
CAUSE ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THIS AREA TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WHILE LOCATIONS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD SEE MOST OF
THE SNOW DISSIPATE NEAR OR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST LATE TONIGHT WHILE ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY. STRONG COLD
ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES WILL CAUSE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE
COMBINATION OF VERY COLD AIR AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CAUSE WIND CHILL
VALUES TO DIP WELL BELOW ZERO OVER THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS AND
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. ELSEWHERE...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL DROP TO
BETWEEN -5 DEGREES AND 5 DEGREES. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AROUND AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION SUGGESTS THAT A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. COVERAGE WOULD BE
LOCALIZED...BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW MAY COAT THE GROUND
IN A FEW SPOTS OVERNIGHT. HAVE ALSO ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA. GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE PRESSURE SURGE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TOWARD THE REGION
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE EVENTUALLY BUILDING
OVERHEAD LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. VERY COLD CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME ALONG WITH DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILLS. THE WIND CHILL HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. ADDITIONAL WIND CHILL HEADLINES
MAY BE NEEDED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY DUE TO STRONG COLD ADVECTION. ANY ACCUMULATION WOULD BE
LOCALIZED...BUT A QUICK COATING OF SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT ON SATURDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED. THE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS ON SATURDAY AS WELL. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD.

MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S NEAR WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE. MIN TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM BELOW ZERO IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.
MAX TEMPS SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
20S ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WHILE
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL CAUSE LOW PRESSURE TO
DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. DESPITE THE LOW BEING FAR AWAY
FROM THE AREA...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF WARM AND MOIST AIR
OVERRUNNING THE ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN PLENTY
OF CLOUDS ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES MONDAY WHILE THE
HIGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST. WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO OVERRUN THE COLD AIR IN PLACE...RESULTING IN MORE
SNOW. THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS UP THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MORE PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY OVER
THE AREA. HOWEVER...WARMER AIR WILL CAUSE A CHANGE OVER TO A
WINTRY MIX AND PERHAPS EVEN OVER TO ALL RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME DUE TO GUIDANCE
DIFFERING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW.

IF THE LOW IS STRONGER IT WILL LIKELY TRACK FARTHER WEST CAUSING
WARMER AIR TO MOVE IN QUICKER. THIS WOULD KEEP THE THREAT FOR
WINTRY MIX/ICE LOW. HOWEVER...IF THE LOW IS WEAKER IT WILL TRACK
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WOULD KEEP LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR
IN PLACE WHICH COULD LEAD TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WINTRY MIX/ICE.
AS OF NOW...THE FORECAST LEANS SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE LATTER SOLUTION
SINCE SCOURING OUT OF THE LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR WILL BE DIFFICULT.

BOTTOM LINE...IT IS INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE
ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH A CHANGE
OVER TO A WINTRY MIX MONDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY RAIN LATE MONDAY
NIGHT OR DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE...AND THIS WOULD IMPACT TRAVEL MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY.

THE LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA LATER TUESDAY AND
DRIER AIR MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS
OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BRIEF
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY SNOW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. GUSTS 35 TO 40 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. A
COUPLE SNOW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED SATURDAY...OVERALL IT SHOULD
BE SNOW-FREE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND
WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THIS TIME. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH
THE TERMINALS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW WILL LIKELY
BREAK OUT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BEFORE CHANGING TO A
WINTRY MIX MONDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY RAIN TUESDAY. IFR CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY DURING THIS TIME. THE LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE AWAY FROM
THE AREA LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
POTENT COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS TONIGHT. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS. THE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE SLOWLY
DIMINISHING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE GALE WARNING CONTINUES
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS LATER SUNDAY BEFORE
MOVING OFF THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY
IMPACT THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING AWAY FROM
THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CAUSE TIDAL ANOMALIES TO BE AROUND 2
FEET BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. BLOWOUT TIDES ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR DCZ001.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ502.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     MDZ004>006-011-013-014-016-503>508.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ003>006-
     011-013-014-016>018-503>508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ501.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ501.
VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VAZ504-507-508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     VAZ052>056-501-502-505-506.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR VAZ028-031-
     052>054-505-506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR VAZ503.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VAZ503.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ050-055-502-
     504-506.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR WVZ051>053.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR WVZ501-503-
     505.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ501-503-505.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ530>543.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL/RCM
NEAR TERM...BJL/RCM
SHORT TERM...BJL/RCM
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...BJL/KLW/RCM
MARINE...BJL/KLW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL/RCM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 130225
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
925 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST THIS EVENING.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING
IN THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS YEAR. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST UPDATED TO CANCEL THE WINTER STORM WARNG AND ADVSRY WITH
SNOW ENDING ACROSS SE VA/NE NC. WILL ISSUE A SPS FOR BLACK ICE
OVER THESE AREAS TNGT. -SN CONTINUES OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE
TNGT...WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TO STAY BLO ONE INCH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CENTERS 1014MB SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NC
COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS AREA OF LIGHT
SNOW MOVING ACROSS EAST/SOUTHEAST VA...WITH OBS AND RADAR RETURNS
INDICATING HEAVIEST SNOW OVER NE NC. THE HEAVIEST BAND OF
SNOW/SLEET AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING REMAINS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH
OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE HIGHLIGHTED
AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LIGHT SNOW WILL WIND DOWN ACROSS ERN
VA INTO SE VA BY 5 PM...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION.
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH AN ADDITIONAL 0.5 INCH OF
SNOWFALL STILL POSSIBLE BACK INTO ISLE OF WIGHT AND SOUTHAMPTON
COUNTIES. THE SFC LOW DEEPENS AND LIFTS NEWD AS THE UPPER LEVEL
WAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE. SNOW BAND WILL PIVOT INTO SE VA LATE TODAY
BEFORE THE LIGHT SNOW FINALLY PUSHES OFFSHORE EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY THEN PUSHES THRU THE REGION THIS EVENING. HAVE
INCREASED POPS FOR THE MD ERN SHORE TO LIKELY LATE THIS EVENING AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALONG THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1
TO 2 INCHES. NW WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY...INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH
COASTAL AREAS AND THE ERN SHORE. SKY CLEARS SW TO NE LATE
TONIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.
WIND CHILLS WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH LOCATES OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES SAT AS THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY PUSHES OFFSHORE. POLAR FRONT
PROGGED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS
INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE SAT...USHERING IN SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON. H85 TEMPS PLUMMET TO AROUND -18 TO -20C (-2 TO -3 STD
DEV). HIGHS ONLY FORECAST IN THE MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW 30S SE.
WINDY...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30 TO
35 MPH. GUSTS OVER THE EASTERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED TO
REACH 40 MPH. WHILE THE AIR MASS REMAINS VERY DRY (DEWPOINTS BELOW
0)...BAY STREAMERS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ERN
SHORE. WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE. SKY AVERAGES SUNNY
SOUTHWEST TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE. LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE IN WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION SAT NIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH INLAND...ALLOWING FOR GREAT
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWS PLUNGING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS INLAND TO UPPER TEENS NEAR THE COAST. WIND CHILL VALUES
GENERALLY 0 TO 5 ABOVE INLAND AND AROUND 5 BELOW NRN NECK TO THE ERN
SHORE. WILL HOLD OFF ON WIND CHILL ADVISORY ATTM.

THE ARCTIC HIGH CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC SUN...WITH HIGHS ONLY
WARMING INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S (-2 STD DEV). SKY AVERAGES MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH A LIGHT NY WIND. MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

THE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUN NIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. NRN STREAM ENERGY LIFTS
NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT/MONDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS MON. SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. POPS INCREASE LATE SUN
NIGHT AS THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM WEAKENS AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. AIR MASS WILL EASILY BE COLD ENOUGH SUN
NIGHT FOR ALL SNOW AS LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
AROUND 20. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE MON AS A COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENS
ALONG THE COAST AND THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP SOUTH LOW BEGINS TO LIFT
NEWD TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE
NW MONDAY MORNING...WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS ALL BUT SE VA/NE NC MON
AFTERNOON. WAA ALOFT/CRITICAL THICKNESSES STILL INDICATING A CHANGE
OVER FROM SN/IP MON MORNING TO RA CLOSER TO THE COAST MON AFTERNOON.
PTYPE LIKELY TO REMAIN ALL SNOW NW. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME TIMING
AND SPATIAL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...BUT CURRENT SNOWFALL
FORECAST CALLS FOR 1-2 INCHES ALONG THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR INTO
CENTRAL VA AND NRN VA...WITH 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE NW COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12/12Z NUMERICAL MODELS DEPICT LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NE FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS MONDAY EVENING...THEN RAPIDLY
DEEPENING AS IT LIFTS NE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY AS A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MIXED PCPN COULD CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING OVER THE PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD OCCUR IN
THE EVENING...WITH RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES SSE. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THE
LONGEST IN THE FAR NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES WHERE SOME POCKETS OF -FZRA
COULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT GENERALLY ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN ARE POSSIBLE LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A BAND OF STRONG VERTICAL ASCENT PASSES
OVER THE REGION. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS COULD PRODUCE A MODESTLY
STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE AREA FOR A 3-6HR
PERIOD TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM TO AT LEAST THE MID/UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH LOW 60S POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COAST...WHILE THE PIEDMONT STRUGGLES TO RISE ABOVE THE
UPPER 40S/LOW 50S. GENERALLY EXPECTING DRIER CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME 20-30% POPS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE N AS A
SECONDARY TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. DRY AND MILD
WEDNESDAY UNDER WNW FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. A
COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL...BUT WITHIN -1 ST DEV. A MODERATING TREND COMMENCES LATE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE
COAST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF COAST STATES
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS OF 01Z...SNOW HAS ENDED OVER SE VA/NE NC BUT CONTINUES OVER
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE. AS THE LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC
AIR APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH...THERE MAY BE MORE SNOW AT SBY.
HAVE LIGHT SNOW IN THE TAF FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD GO
TO IFR BUT NOT EXPECTED TO LAST FOR VERY LONG.

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS SE PORTIONS WITH SOME
IFR INDICATED AT ECG. CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY INDICATED FOR SATURDAY. THE
EXCEPTION WOULD BE AT SBY WHERE STRATOCU IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A
CEILING OF AROUND 5K FT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR SNOW ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING TURNING
TO RAIN FROM SE TO NW MONDAY AFTN. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS INDICATED
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. PERIODS OF IFR ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
PCPN. DRY AND VFR WEATHER RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING ENE OFF THE NC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING
ACROSS THE ERN LAKES...WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT TRAILING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY...AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SPILLING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SN...WHICH WILL
REDUCE VSBY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING (MAINLY S). AS THE LOW
LIFTS TO THE NE TONIGHT THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS IN
FROM THE NW. A NW WIND WILL AVERAGE 25-30KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF
35-40KT OVER THE OCEAN AND BAY. SEAS BUILD TO 5-8FT WITH 4-5 FT
WAVES IN THE BAY. GALE FLAGS CONTINUE FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND...WIND SPEEDS REMAIN CAPPED
AT HIGH-END SCA AT THIS TIME. FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED AS
TEMPERATURES PLUMMET SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
FORM THE SW EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND TRACKS UP THE PIEDMONT TUESDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODESTLY STRONG SSE WIND AND BUILDING
SEAS/WAVES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE
BLOW-OUT TIDES / LOW WATER ADVISORIES FOR SOME AREAS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...AND MUCH OF THE COASTLINES SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. THE MAIN AREAS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THAT COULD HAVE
LOW WATER ARE ALONG THE ATLANITC COAST N OF CAPE CHARLES. A LOW
WATER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 08-13Z (3 TO 8 AM).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ633-635>638.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652-654.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM
NEAR TERM...MAS/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 130225
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
925 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST THIS EVENING.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING
IN THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS YEAR. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST UPDATED TO CANCEL THE WINTER STORM WARNG AND ADVSRY WITH
SNOW ENDING ACROSS SE VA/NE NC. WILL ISSUE A SPS FOR BLACK ICE
OVER THESE AREAS TNGT. -SN CONTINUES OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE
TNGT...WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TO STAY BLO ONE INCH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CENTERS 1014MB SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NC
COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS AREA OF LIGHT
SNOW MOVING ACROSS EAST/SOUTHEAST VA...WITH OBS AND RADAR RETURNS
INDICATING HEAVIEST SNOW OVER NE NC. THE HEAVIEST BAND OF
SNOW/SLEET AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING REMAINS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH
OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE HIGHLIGHTED
AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LIGHT SNOW WILL WIND DOWN ACROSS ERN
VA INTO SE VA BY 5 PM...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION.
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH AN ADDITIONAL 0.5 INCH OF
SNOWFALL STILL POSSIBLE BACK INTO ISLE OF WIGHT AND SOUTHAMPTON
COUNTIES. THE SFC LOW DEEPENS AND LIFTS NEWD AS THE UPPER LEVEL
WAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE. SNOW BAND WILL PIVOT INTO SE VA LATE TODAY
BEFORE THE LIGHT SNOW FINALLY PUSHES OFFSHORE EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY THEN PUSHES THRU THE REGION THIS EVENING. HAVE
INCREASED POPS FOR THE MD ERN SHORE TO LIKELY LATE THIS EVENING AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALONG THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1
TO 2 INCHES. NW WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY...INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH
COASTAL AREAS AND THE ERN SHORE. SKY CLEARS SW TO NE LATE
TONIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.
WIND CHILLS WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH LOCATES OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES SAT AS THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY PUSHES OFFSHORE. POLAR FRONT
PROGGED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS
INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE SAT...USHERING IN SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON. H85 TEMPS PLUMMET TO AROUND -18 TO -20C (-2 TO -3 STD
DEV). HIGHS ONLY FORECAST IN THE MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW 30S SE.
WINDY...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30 TO
35 MPH. GUSTS OVER THE EASTERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED TO
REACH 40 MPH. WHILE THE AIR MASS REMAINS VERY DRY (DEWPOINTS BELOW
0)...BAY STREAMERS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ERN
SHORE. WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE. SKY AVERAGES SUNNY
SOUTHWEST TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE. LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE IN WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION SAT NIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH INLAND...ALLOWING FOR GREAT
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWS PLUNGING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS INLAND TO UPPER TEENS NEAR THE COAST. WIND CHILL VALUES
GENERALLY 0 TO 5 ABOVE INLAND AND AROUND 5 BELOW NRN NECK TO THE ERN
SHORE. WILL HOLD OFF ON WIND CHILL ADVISORY ATTM.

THE ARCTIC HIGH CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC SUN...WITH HIGHS ONLY
WARMING INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S (-2 STD DEV). SKY AVERAGES MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH A LIGHT NY WIND. MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

THE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUN NIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. NRN STREAM ENERGY LIFTS
NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT/MONDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS MON. SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. POPS INCREASE LATE SUN
NIGHT AS THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM WEAKENS AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. AIR MASS WILL EASILY BE COLD ENOUGH SUN
NIGHT FOR ALL SNOW AS LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
AROUND 20. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE MON AS A COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENS
ALONG THE COAST AND THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP SOUTH LOW BEGINS TO LIFT
NEWD TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE
NW MONDAY MORNING...WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS ALL BUT SE VA/NE NC MON
AFTERNOON. WAA ALOFT/CRITICAL THICKNESSES STILL INDICATING A CHANGE
OVER FROM SN/IP MON MORNING TO RA CLOSER TO THE COAST MON AFTERNOON.
PTYPE LIKELY TO REMAIN ALL SNOW NW. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME TIMING
AND SPATIAL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...BUT CURRENT SNOWFALL
FORECAST CALLS FOR 1-2 INCHES ALONG THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR INTO
CENTRAL VA AND NRN VA...WITH 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE NW COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12/12Z NUMERICAL MODELS DEPICT LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NE FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS MONDAY EVENING...THEN RAPIDLY
DEEPENING AS IT LIFTS NE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY AS A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MIXED PCPN COULD CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING OVER THE PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD OCCUR IN
THE EVENING...WITH RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES SSE. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THE
LONGEST IN THE FAR NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES WHERE SOME POCKETS OF -FZRA
COULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT GENERALLY ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN ARE POSSIBLE LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A BAND OF STRONG VERTICAL ASCENT PASSES
OVER THE REGION. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS COULD PRODUCE A MODESTLY
STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE AREA FOR A 3-6HR
PERIOD TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM TO AT LEAST THE MID/UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH LOW 60S POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COAST...WHILE THE PIEDMONT STRUGGLES TO RISE ABOVE THE
UPPER 40S/LOW 50S. GENERALLY EXPECTING DRIER CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME 20-30% POPS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE N AS A
SECONDARY TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. DRY AND MILD
WEDNESDAY UNDER WNW FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. A
COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL...BUT WITHIN -1 ST DEV. A MODERATING TREND COMMENCES LATE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE
COAST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF COAST STATES
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS OF 01Z...SNOW HAS ENDED OVER SE VA/NE NC BUT CONTINUES OVER
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE. AS THE LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC
AIR APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH...THERE MAY BE MORE SNOW AT SBY.
HAVE LIGHT SNOW IN THE TAF FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD GO
TO IFR BUT NOT EXPECTED TO LAST FOR VERY LONG.

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS SE PORTIONS WITH SOME
IFR INDICATED AT ECG. CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY INDICATED FOR SATURDAY. THE
EXCEPTION WOULD BE AT SBY WHERE STRATOCU IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A
CEILING OF AROUND 5K FT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR SNOW ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING TURNING
TO RAIN FROM SE TO NW MONDAY AFTN. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS INDICATED
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. PERIODS OF IFR ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
PCPN. DRY AND VFR WEATHER RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING ENE OFF THE NC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING
ACROSS THE ERN LAKES...WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT TRAILING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY...AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SPILLING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SN...WHICH WILL
REDUCE VSBY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING (MAINLY S). AS THE LOW
LIFTS TO THE NE TONIGHT THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS IN
FROM THE NW. A NW WIND WILL AVERAGE 25-30KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF
35-40KT OVER THE OCEAN AND BAY. SEAS BUILD TO 5-8FT WITH 4-5 FT
WAVES IN THE BAY. GALE FLAGS CONTINUE FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND...WIND SPEEDS REMAIN CAPPED
AT HIGH-END SCA AT THIS TIME. FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED AS
TEMPERATURES PLUMMET SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
FORM THE SW EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND TRACKS UP THE PIEDMONT TUESDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODESTLY STRONG SSE WIND AND BUILDING
SEAS/WAVES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE
BLOW-OUT TIDES / LOW WATER ADVISORIES FOR SOME AREAS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...AND MUCH OF THE COASTLINES SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. THE MAIN AREAS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THAT COULD HAVE
LOW WATER ARE ALONG THE ATLANITC COAST N OF CAPE CHARLES. A LOW
WATER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 08-13Z (3 TO 8 AM).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ633-635>638.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652-654.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM
NEAR TERM...MAS/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 130225
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
925 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST THIS EVENING.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING
IN THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS YEAR. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST UPDATED TO CANCEL THE WINTER STORM WARNG AND ADVSRY WITH
SNOW ENDING ACROSS SE VA/NE NC. WILL ISSUE A SPS FOR BLACK ICE
OVER THESE AREAS TNGT. -SN CONTINUES OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE
TNGT...WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TO STAY BLO ONE INCH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CENTERS 1014MB SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NC
COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS AREA OF LIGHT
SNOW MOVING ACROSS EAST/SOUTHEAST VA...WITH OBS AND RADAR RETURNS
INDICATING HEAVIEST SNOW OVER NE NC. THE HEAVIEST BAND OF
SNOW/SLEET AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING REMAINS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH
OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE HIGHLIGHTED
AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LIGHT SNOW WILL WIND DOWN ACROSS ERN
VA INTO SE VA BY 5 PM...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION.
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH AN ADDITIONAL 0.5 INCH OF
SNOWFALL STILL POSSIBLE BACK INTO ISLE OF WIGHT AND SOUTHAMPTON
COUNTIES. THE SFC LOW DEEPENS AND LIFTS NEWD AS THE UPPER LEVEL
WAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE. SNOW BAND WILL PIVOT INTO SE VA LATE TODAY
BEFORE THE LIGHT SNOW FINALLY PUSHES OFFSHORE EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY THEN PUSHES THRU THE REGION THIS EVENING. HAVE
INCREASED POPS FOR THE MD ERN SHORE TO LIKELY LATE THIS EVENING AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALONG THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1
TO 2 INCHES. NW WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY...INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH
COASTAL AREAS AND THE ERN SHORE. SKY CLEARS SW TO NE LATE
TONIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.
WIND CHILLS WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH LOCATES OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES SAT AS THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY PUSHES OFFSHORE. POLAR FRONT
PROGGED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS
INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE SAT...USHERING IN SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON. H85 TEMPS PLUMMET TO AROUND -18 TO -20C (-2 TO -3 STD
DEV). HIGHS ONLY FORECAST IN THE MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW 30S SE.
WINDY...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30 TO
35 MPH. GUSTS OVER THE EASTERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED TO
REACH 40 MPH. WHILE THE AIR MASS REMAINS VERY DRY (DEWPOINTS BELOW
0)...BAY STREAMERS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ERN
SHORE. WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE. SKY AVERAGES SUNNY
SOUTHWEST TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE. LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE IN WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION SAT NIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH INLAND...ALLOWING FOR GREAT
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWS PLUNGING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS INLAND TO UPPER TEENS NEAR THE COAST. WIND CHILL VALUES
GENERALLY 0 TO 5 ABOVE INLAND AND AROUND 5 BELOW NRN NECK TO THE ERN
SHORE. WILL HOLD OFF ON WIND CHILL ADVISORY ATTM.

THE ARCTIC HIGH CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC SUN...WITH HIGHS ONLY
WARMING INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S (-2 STD DEV). SKY AVERAGES MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH A LIGHT NY WIND. MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

THE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUN NIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. NRN STREAM ENERGY LIFTS
NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT/MONDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS MON. SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. POPS INCREASE LATE SUN
NIGHT AS THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM WEAKENS AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. AIR MASS WILL EASILY BE COLD ENOUGH SUN
NIGHT FOR ALL SNOW AS LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
AROUND 20. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE MON AS A COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENS
ALONG THE COAST AND THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP SOUTH LOW BEGINS TO LIFT
NEWD TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE
NW MONDAY MORNING...WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS ALL BUT SE VA/NE NC MON
AFTERNOON. WAA ALOFT/CRITICAL THICKNESSES STILL INDICATING A CHANGE
OVER FROM SN/IP MON MORNING TO RA CLOSER TO THE COAST MON AFTERNOON.
PTYPE LIKELY TO REMAIN ALL SNOW NW. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME TIMING
AND SPATIAL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...BUT CURRENT SNOWFALL
FORECAST CALLS FOR 1-2 INCHES ALONG THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR INTO
CENTRAL VA AND NRN VA...WITH 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE NW COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12/12Z NUMERICAL MODELS DEPICT LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NE FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS MONDAY EVENING...THEN RAPIDLY
DEEPENING AS IT LIFTS NE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY AS A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MIXED PCPN COULD CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING OVER THE PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD OCCUR IN
THE EVENING...WITH RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES SSE. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THE
LONGEST IN THE FAR NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES WHERE SOME POCKETS OF -FZRA
COULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT GENERALLY ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN ARE POSSIBLE LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A BAND OF STRONG VERTICAL ASCENT PASSES
OVER THE REGION. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS COULD PRODUCE A MODESTLY
STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE AREA FOR A 3-6HR
PERIOD TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM TO AT LEAST THE MID/UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH LOW 60S POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COAST...WHILE THE PIEDMONT STRUGGLES TO RISE ABOVE THE
UPPER 40S/LOW 50S. GENERALLY EXPECTING DRIER CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME 20-30% POPS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE N AS A
SECONDARY TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. DRY AND MILD
WEDNESDAY UNDER WNW FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. A
COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL...BUT WITHIN -1 ST DEV. A MODERATING TREND COMMENCES LATE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE
COAST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF COAST STATES
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS OF 01Z...SNOW HAS ENDED OVER SE VA/NE NC BUT CONTINUES OVER
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE. AS THE LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC
AIR APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH...THERE MAY BE MORE SNOW AT SBY.
HAVE LIGHT SNOW IN THE TAF FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD GO
TO IFR BUT NOT EXPECTED TO LAST FOR VERY LONG.

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS SE PORTIONS WITH SOME
IFR INDICATED AT ECG. CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY INDICATED FOR SATURDAY. THE
EXCEPTION WOULD BE AT SBY WHERE STRATOCU IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A
CEILING OF AROUND 5K FT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR SNOW ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING TURNING
TO RAIN FROM SE TO NW MONDAY AFTN. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS INDICATED
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. PERIODS OF IFR ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
PCPN. DRY AND VFR WEATHER RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING ENE OFF THE NC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING
ACROSS THE ERN LAKES...WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT TRAILING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY...AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SPILLING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SN...WHICH WILL
REDUCE VSBY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING (MAINLY S). AS THE LOW
LIFTS TO THE NE TONIGHT THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS IN
FROM THE NW. A NW WIND WILL AVERAGE 25-30KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF
35-40KT OVER THE OCEAN AND BAY. SEAS BUILD TO 5-8FT WITH 4-5 FT
WAVES IN THE BAY. GALE FLAGS CONTINUE FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND...WIND SPEEDS REMAIN CAPPED
AT HIGH-END SCA AT THIS TIME. FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED AS
TEMPERATURES PLUMMET SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
FORM THE SW EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND TRACKS UP THE PIEDMONT TUESDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODESTLY STRONG SSE WIND AND BUILDING
SEAS/WAVES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE
BLOW-OUT TIDES / LOW WATER ADVISORIES FOR SOME AREAS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...AND MUCH OF THE COASTLINES SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. THE MAIN AREAS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THAT COULD HAVE
LOW WATER ARE ALONG THE ATLANITC COAST N OF CAPE CHARLES. A LOW
WATER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 08-13Z (3 TO 8 AM).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ633-635>638.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652-654.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM
NEAR TERM...MAS/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KRNK 130048
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
748 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS EAST OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING. A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM OVERNIGHT
RESULTING IN VERY WINDY CONDITIONS AND BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH SOME ADDED SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE FAR
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO SATURDAY. BY MONDAY
ANOTHER WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT FRIDAY...

SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE SOUTH WILL FINALLY LINK WITH THE SURFACE
COASTAL LOW IN TURN TAKING THE LAST BATCH OF SYNOPTIC SNOW SHOWERS OUT
OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING. SHOULD THEN SEE A BRIEF BREAK AFTER SUNSET
BEFORE THE TRUE UPSTREAM ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES ON INCREASING NW WINDS LATE
THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AS DEEP 5H TROFFINESS CARVES OUT ACROSS
THE EAST. THIS ALONG WITH INCREASING LAPSES...DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG
UPSLOPE WILL ALLOW FOR BANDS OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER
THE FAR WEST WITH ANOTHER 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW LIKELY ACROSS THE FAVORED
AREAS...AND FLURRIES OUT TO THE BLUE RIDGE. EXPECT DOWNSLOPE CLEARING
TO DEVELOP OUT EAST OVERNIGHT SO DRY AFTER ANY LATE DAY SNOW SHOWERS
END BY EARLY THIS EVENING.

OTRW WINDS AND COLD THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING A 50+ KNOT
85H JET PLOWING IN ON VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND 85H TEMPS FALLING TO
BELOW -20C OVERNIGHT. MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR WARNING CRITERIA WIND
SPEEDS TO BE REACHED OVER THE NW NC MOUNTAINS WITH WIDESPREAD ADVISORY
LEVELS OUT TO THE BLUE RIDGE. THEREFORE BUMPED UP WIND SPEEDS WHILE
KEEPING THIS ROLLED UP INTO THE GOING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ADDED
SNOW WEST AND WIND CHILLS OUT TO THE FOOTHILLS. SINCE MOS NOT QUITE AS
COLD AS BEFORE UNDER LOTS OF MIXING...STAYED A LITTLE ABOVE THE COLDEST
LOWS BUT STILL OVERALL SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS TO AROUND 20 WITH CHILLS AT
ADVISORY OR COLDER LEVELS IN SPOTS WEST.

ARCTIC HIGH SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE NW DURING SATURDAY ALLOWING SOME
MID/LATE AFTERNOON DROP OFF IN WINDS BUT STILL FRIGID WITH HIGHS SINGLE
DIGITS/TEENS MOUNTAINS AND 20S TO NEAR 30 FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST. LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE MOISTURE LOOKS TO SLOWLY WANE SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT
STILL ENOUGH FOR HIGH POPS DURING THE MORNING...TAPERING TO
CHANCE COVERAGE LATER IN THE DAY. CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO SLOWLY FADE
FROM EAST TO WEST AS THE VERY DRY ARCTIC AIR SPILLS IN ALLOWING
FOR MORE SUN FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST AND BECOMING PC FAR WEST
LATE. STILL APPEARS THAT WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA COULD LINGER
INTO THE AFTERNOON SO FEW CHANGES WITH GOING HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EST FRIDAY...

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT
THEN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP
DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO A RANGE OF 10F-
15F IN THE EAST. EVEN WITH LIGHT WINDS...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE
BELOW ZERO SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS WILL
MODERATE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY PEAKING IN THE 20S.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN TEXAS SUNDAY
NIGHT. AS THIS LOW TRACKS EAST AND DEEPENS THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL GLIDE OVER THE ARCTIC HIGH...PRODUCING
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. AS THIS LOW APPROACHES THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...A WARM NOSE WILL BEGIN TO ENTER THE AREA...POSSIBLY
CHANGING SNOW OVER TO A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET, RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON A WINTER STORM FOR THE AREA BEGINNING
MONDAY...HOWEVER P-TYPE REMAINS THE BIGGEST QUESTION.
MODELS CONTINUE TO JUMP AROUND WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW. IF THE LOW
TRACKS NORTH FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND REMAINS WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS...P-TYPE WILL CHANGE FROM SNOW TO SLEET TO RAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. IF THE TRACK IS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS...A LONGER DURATION OF SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH A CHANGE
OVER TO SLEET/RAIN OCCURRING LATER MONDAY NIGHT. DYNAMICS AND LIFT
WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE VERY IMPRESSIVE...ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA. UPWARDS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID IS LIKELY...BUT AT
WHAT P-TYPE IT FALLS AS IS ANOTHER QUESTION TO ANSWER. FOR THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE...WE WILL KEEP P-TYPE SIMPLE WITH RAIN/SNOW. WE
WILL ALSO KEEP SNOWFALL LIGHT TO MODERATE AND NOT SPECULATE ON
AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EST FRIDAY...

EARLY TUESDAY MORNING A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE CWA...WITH THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND THEN SHIFTING TO MOVE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE FURTHER
SOUTHEAST THE SYSTEM MOVES THE MORE LIKELY THE PRECIPITATION WILL
FALL AS SNOW. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME WHETHER THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL COMPLETELY AS SNOW...RAIN...OR WINTRY
RAIN MIX. THE MODELS DAYTIME SURFACE TEMPERATURES STAY WARM ENOUGH
TO FAVOR RAIN FOR MAJORITY OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY IN THE PIEDMONT.
HOWEVER...SNOW COULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS THE RIDGES STAY
COLDER AND THE LOW PRESSURE BRINGS IN A COLDER WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE.

WEDNESDAY A CLIPPER SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE CWA BRINGING AN
ADDITIONAL CHANCE FOR SNOW AND COLD TEMPERATURES. THE GFS AND EURO
ARE IN DISAGREEMENT HOW MUCH MUCH SNOW BUT MODELS TEND TO AGREE THAT
THE WESTERN SLOPES WILL SEE SOME ACCUMULATIONS. A HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS IN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL START TO
WARM UP.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1150 AM EST FRIDAY...

MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY WILL BE LOW LEVEL
TURBULENCE GENERATED FROM STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS. AN ARCTIC FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL BRING ONSET OF
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS...SUSTAINED VALUES NEAR 20 KTS
ATTMS WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KTS. GUSTS NEAR 45 KTS ARE POSSIBLE
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING VCNTY OF KROA/KBCB/KTNB WHERE AIRFLOW WILL
BE THE STRONGEST OVER THE RIDGE CRESTS...SIMILAR TO WATER FLOWING
OVER A DAM.

IN ADDITION TO THE WIND...ANTICIPATE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS DUE TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NARROW CORRIDOR OF IFR
WILL EXIST ALONG THE NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIAN
DIVIDE FROM EKN-BLF-TNB WHERE VSBYS/CIGS MAY OBSCURE THE RIDGE
TOPS. EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...THE NORTHWEST WIND WILL RESULT IN
DOWNSLOPE DRYING WITH CLOUD BASES DISSOLVING AND RESULTING IN VFR.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY EVENING AND INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH NEAR CALM CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVERHEAD. MAIN CONCERN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BE
THE BITTER COLD...TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
ONSET OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT.  CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL EXIST FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WINTER STORM WILL PRODUCE A VARIETY OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...STARTING AS SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN TRANSITIONING
TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MONDAY. AFTER THE EARLY WEEK WINTER
STORM...THERE IS ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT THE
AREA FOR MID WEEK...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN THE CONTINUATION OF
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND. SEVERAL RECORD LOW
MAX TEMPERATURES AND LOW TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE. BELOW ARE THE
CURRENT RECORDS FOR SATURDAY 2/13 AND SUNDAY 2/14.

SATURDAY 02/13/2016
SITE   MINT YEAR  LOMAX YEAR
KBLF     4 1988     19 1988
KDAN    11 1955     32 1981
KLYH     5 1979      9 1899
KROA     8 1917     18 1914
KRNK    -4 1969     14 1955


SUNDAY 02/14/2016
SITE   MINT YEAR  LOMAX YEAR
KBLF     5 1971     16 1960
KDAN    15 1986     32 1986
KLYH     4 1899     24 1905
KROA    10 1943     26 1986
KRNK    -2 1969     24 1986

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR VAZ007-009-
     015.
NC...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NCZ001-002-018.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR WVZ042>044-507.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR WVZ042-043-
     508.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR WVZ508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/MBS
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...PM
CLIMATE...CF




000
FXUS61 KRNK 130048
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
748 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS EAST OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING. A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM OVERNIGHT
RESULTING IN VERY WINDY CONDITIONS AND BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH SOME ADDED SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE FAR
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO SATURDAY. BY MONDAY
ANOTHER WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT FRIDAY...

SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE SOUTH WILL FINALLY LINK WITH THE SURFACE
COASTAL LOW IN TURN TAKING THE LAST BATCH OF SYNOPTIC SNOW SHOWERS OUT
OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING. SHOULD THEN SEE A BRIEF BREAK AFTER SUNSET
BEFORE THE TRUE UPSTREAM ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES ON INCREASING NW WINDS LATE
THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AS DEEP 5H TROFFINESS CARVES OUT ACROSS
THE EAST. THIS ALONG WITH INCREASING LAPSES...DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG
UPSLOPE WILL ALLOW FOR BANDS OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER
THE FAR WEST WITH ANOTHER 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW LIKELY ACROSS THE FAVORED
AREAS...AND FLURRIES OUT TO THE BLUE RIDGE. EXPECT DOWNSLOPE CLEARING
TO DEVELOP OUT EAST OVERNIGHT SO DRY AFTER ANY LATE DAY SNOW SHOWERS
END BY EARLY THIS EVENING.

OTRW WINDS AND COLD THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING A 50+ KNOT
85H JET PLOWING IN ON VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND 85H TEMPS FALLING TO
BELOW -20C OVERNIGHT. MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR WARNING CRITERIA WIND
SPEEDS TO BE REACHED OVER THE NW NC MOUNTAINS WITH WIDESPREAD ADVISORY
LEVELS OUT TO THE BLUE RIDGE. THEREFORE BUMPED UP WIND SPEEDS WHILE
KEEPING THIS ROLLED UP INTO THE GOING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ADDED
SNOW WEST AND WIND CHILLS OUT TO THE FOOTHILLS. SINCE MOS NOT QUITE AS
COLD AS BEFORE UNDER LOTS OF MIXING...STAYED A LITTLE ABOVE THE COLDEST
LOWS BUT STILL OVERALL SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS TO AROUND 20 WITH CHILLS AT
ADVISORY OR COLDER LEVELS IN SPOTS WEST.

ARCTIC HIGH SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE NW DURING SATURDAY ALLOWING SOME
MID/LATE AFTERNOON DROP OFF IN WINDS BUT STILL FRIGID WITH HIGHS SINGLE
DIGITS/TEENS MOUNTAINS AND 20S TO NEAR 30 FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST. LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE MOISTURE LOOKS TO SLOWLY WANE SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT
STILL ENOUGH FOR HIGH POPS DURING THE MORNING...TAPERING TO
CHANCE COVERAGE LATER IN THE DAY. CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO SLOWLY FADE
FROM EAST TO WEST AS THE VERY DRY ARCTIC AIR SPILLS IN ALLOWING
FOR MORE SUN FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST AND BECOMING PC FAR WEST
LATE. STILL APPEARS THAT WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA COULD LINGER
INTO THE AFTERNOON SO FEW CHANGES WITH GOING HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EST FRIDAY...

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT
THEN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP
DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO A RANGE OF 10F-
15F IN THE EAST. EVEN WITH LIGHT WINDS...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE
BELOW ZERO SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS WILL
MODERATE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY PEAKING IN THE 20S.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN TEXAS SUNDAY
NIGHT. AS THIS LOW TRACKS EAST AND DEEPENS THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL GLIDE OVER THE ARCTIC HIGH...PRODUCING
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. AS THIS LOW APPROACHES THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...A WARM NOSE WILL BEGIN TO ENTER THE AREA...POSSIBLY
CHANGING SNOW OVER TO A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET, RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON A WINTER STORM FOR THE AREA BEGINNING
MONDAY...HOWEVER P-TYPE REMAINS THE BIGGEST QUESTION.
MODELS CONTINUE TO JUMP AROUND WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW. IF THE LOW
TRACKS NORTH FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND REMAINS WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS...P-TYPE WILL CHANGE FROM SNOW TO SLEET TO RAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. IF THE TRACK IS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS...A LONGER DURATION OF SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH A CHANGE
OVER TO SLEET/RAIN OCCURRING LATER MONDAY NIGHT. DYNAMICS AND LIFT
WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE VERY IMPRESSIVE...ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA. UPWARDS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID IS LIKELY...BUT AT
WHAT P-TYPE IT FALLS AS IS ANOTHER QUESTION TO ANSWER. FOR THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE...WE WILL KEEP P-TYPE SIMPLE WITH RAIN/SNOW. WE
WILL ALSO KEEP SNOWFALL LIGHT TO MODERATE AND NOT SPECULATE ON
AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EST FRIDAY...

EARLY TUESDAY MORNING A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE CWA...WITH THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND THEN SHIFTING TO MOVE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE FURTHER
SOUTHEAST THE SYSTEM MOVES THE MORE LIKELY THE PRECIPITATION WILL
FALL AS SNOW. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME WHETHER THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL COMPLETELY AS SNOW...RAIN...OR WINTRY
RAIN MIX. THE MODELS DAYTIME SURFACE TEMPERATURES STAY WARM ENOUGH
TO FAVOR RAIN FOR MAJORITY OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY IN THE PIEDMONT.
HOWEVER...SNOW COULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS THE RIDGES STAY
COLDER AND THE LOW PRESSURE BRINGS IN A COLDER WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE.

WEDNESDAY A CLIPPER SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE CWA BRINGING AN
ADDITIONAL CHANCE FOR SNOW AND COLD TEMPERATURES. THE GFS AND EURO
ARE IN DISAGREEMENT HOW MUCH MUCH SNOW BUT MODELS TEND TO AGREE THAT
THE WESTERN SLOPES WILL SEE SOME ACCUMULATIONS. A HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS IN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL START TO
WARM UP.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1150 AM EST FRIDAY...

MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY WILL BE LOW LEVEL
TURBULENCE GENERATED FROM STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS. AN ARCTIC FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL BRING ONSET OF
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS...SUSTAINED VALUES NEAR 20 KTS
ATTMS WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KTS. GUSTS NEAR 45 KTS ARE POSSIBLE
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING VCNTY OF KROA/KBCB/KTNB WHERE AIRFLOW WILL
BE THE STRONGEST OVER THE RIDGE CRESTS...SIMILAR TO WATER FLOWING
OVER A DAM.

IN ADDITION TO THE WIND...ANTICIPATE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS DUE TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NARROW CORRIDOR OF IFR
WILL EXIST ALONG THE NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIAN
DIVIDE FROM EKN-BLF-TNB WHERE VSBYS/CIGS MAY OBSCURE THE RIDGE
TOPS. EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...THE NORTHWEST WIND WILL RESULT IN
DOWNSLOPE DRYING WITH CLOUD BASES DISSOLVING AND RESULTING IN VFR.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY EVENING AND INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH NEAR CALM CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVERHEAD. MAIN CONCERN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BE
THE BITTER COLD...TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
ONSET OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT.  CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL EXIST FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WINTER STORM WILL PRODUCE A VARIETY OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...STARTING AS SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN TRANSITIONING
TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MONDAY. AFTER THE EARLY WEEK WINTER
STORM...THERE IS ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT THE
AREA FOR MID WEEK...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN THE CONTINUATION OF
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND. SEVERAL RECORD LOW
MAX TEMPERATURES AND LOW TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE. BELOW ARE THE
CURRENT RECORDS FOR SATURDAY 2/13 AND SUNDAY 2/14.

SATURDAY 02/13/2016
SITE   MINT YEAR  LOMAX YEAR
KBLF     4 1988     19 1988
KDAN    11 1955     32 1981
KLYH     5 1979      9 1899
KROA     8 1917     18 1914
KRNK    -4 1969     14 1955


SUNDAY 02/14/2016
SITE   MINT YEAR  LOMAX YEAR
KBLF     5 1971     16 1960
KDAN    15 1986     32 1986
KLYH     4 1899     24 1905
KROA    10 1943     26 1986
KRNK    -2 1969     24 1986

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR VAZ007-009-
     015.
NC...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NCZ001-002-018.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR WVZ042>044-507.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR WVZ042-043-
     508.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR WVZ508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/MBS
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...PM
CLIMATE...CF



000
FXUS61 KRNK 130048
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
748 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS EAST OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING. A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM OVERNIGHT
RESULTING IN VERY WINDY CONDITIONS AND BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH SOME ADDED SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE FAR
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO SATURDAY. BY MONDAY
ANOTHER WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT FRIDAY...

SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE SOUTH WILL FINALLY LINK WITH THE SURFACE
COASTAL LOW IN TURN TAKING THE LAST BATCH OF SYNOPTIC SNOW SHOWERS OUT
OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING. SHOULD THEN SEE A BRIEF BREAK AFTER SUNSET
BEFORE THE TRUE UPSTREAM ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES ON INCREASING NW WINDS LATE
THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AS DEEP 5H TROFFINESS CARVES OUT ACROSS
THE EAST. THIS ALONG WITH INCREASING LAPSES...DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG
UPSLOPE WILL ALLOW FOR BANDS OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER
THE FAR WEST WITH ANOTHER 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW LIKELY ACROSS THE FAVORED
AREAS...AND FLURRIES OUT TO THE BLUE RIDGE. EXPECT DOWNSLOPE CLEARING
TO DEVELOP OUT EAST OVERNIGHT SO DRY AFTER ANY LATE DAY SNOW SHOWERS
END BY EARLY THIS EVENING.

OTRW WINDS AND COLD THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING A 50+ KNOT
85H JET PLOWING IN ON VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND 85H TEMPS FALLING TO
BELOW -20C OVERNIGHT. MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR WARNING CRITERIA WIND
SPEEDS TO BE REACHED OVER THE NW NC MOUNTAINS WITH WIDESPREAD ADVISORY
LEVELS OUT TO THE BLUE RIDGE. THEREFORE BUMPED UP WIND SPEEDS WHILE
KEEPING THIS ROLLED UP INTO THE GOING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ADDED
SNOW WEST AND WIND CHILLS OUT TO THE FOOTHILLS. SINCE MOS NOT QUITE AS
COLD AS BEFORE UNDER LOTS OF MIXING...STAYED A LITTLE ABOVE THE COLDEST
LOWS BUT STILL OVERALL SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS TO AROUND 20 WITH CHILLS AT
ADVISORY OR COLDER LEVELS IN SPOTS WEST.

ARCTIC HIGH SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE NW DURING SATURDAY ALLOWING SOME
MID/LATE AFTERNOON DROP OFF IN WINDS BUT STILL FRIGID WITH HIGHS SINGLE
DIGITS/TEENS MOUNTAINS AND 20S TO NEAR 30 FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST. LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE MOISTURE LOOKS TO SLOWLY WANE SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT
STILL ENOUGH FOR HIGH POPS DURING THE MORNING...TAPERING TO
CHANCE COVERAGE LATER IN THE DAY. CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO SLOWLY FADE
FROM EAST TO WEST AS THE VERY DRY ARCTIC AIR SPILLS IN ALLOWING
FOR MORE SUN FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST AND BECOMING PC FAR WEST
LATE. STILL APPEARS THAT WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA COULD LINGER
INTO THE AFTERNOON SO FEW CHANGES WITH GOING HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EST FRIDAY...

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT
THEN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP
DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO A RANGE OF 10F-
15F IN THE EAST. EVEN WITH LIGHT WINDS...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE
BELOW ZERO SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS WILL
MODERATE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY PEAKING IN THE 20S.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN TEXAS SUNDAY
NIGHT. AS THIS LOW TRACKS EAST AND DEEPENS THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL GLIDE OVER THE ARCTIC HIGH...PRODUCING
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. AS THIS LOW APPROACHES THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...A WARM NOSE WILL BEGIN TO ENTER THE AREA...POSSIBLY
CHANGING SNOW OVER TO A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET, RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON A WINTER STORM FOR THE AREA BEGINNING
MONDAY...HOWEVER P-TYPE REMAINS THE BIGGEST QUESTION.
MODELS CONTINUE TO JUMP AROUND WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW. IF THE LOW
TRACKS NORTH FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND REMAINS WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS...P-TYPE WILL CHANGE FROM SNOW TO SLEET TO RAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. IF THE TRACK IS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS...A LONGER DURATION OF SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH A CHANGE
OVER TO SLEET/RAIN OCCURRING LATER MONDAY NIGHT. DYNAMICS AND LIFT
WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE VERY IMPRESSIVE...ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA. UPWARDS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID IS LIKELY...BUT AT
WHAT P-TYPE IT FALLS AS IS ANOTHER QUESTION TO ANSWER. FOR THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE...WE WILL KEEP P-TYPE SIMPLE WITH RAIN/SNOW. WE
WILL ALSO KEEP SNOWFALL LIGHT TO MODERATE AND NOT SPECULATE ON
AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EST FRIDAY...

EARLY TUESDAY MORNING A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE CWA...WITH THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND THEN SHIFTING TO MOVE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE FURTHER
SOUTHEAST THE SYSTEM MOVES THE MORE LIKELY THE PRECIPITATION WILL
FALL AS SNOW. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME WHETHER THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL COMPLETELY AS SNOW...RAIN...OR WINTRY
RAIN MIX. THE MODELS DAYTIME SURFACE TEMPERATURES STAY WARM ENOUGH
TO FAVOR RAIN FOR MAJORITY OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY IN THE PIEDMONT.
HOWEVER...SNOW COULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS THE RIDGES STAY
COLDER AND THE LOW PRESSURE BRINGS IN A COLDER WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE.

WEDNESDAY A CLIPPER SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE CWA BRINGING AN
ADDITIONAL CHANCE FOR SNOW AND COLD TEMPERATURES. THE GFS AND EURO
ARE IN DISAGREEMENT HOW MUCH MUCH SNOW BUT MODELS TEND TO AGREE THAT
THE WESTERN SLOPES WILL SEE SOME ACCUMULATIONS. A HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS IN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL START TO
WARM UP.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1150 AM EST FRIDAY...

MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY WILL BE LOW LEVEL
TURBULENCE GENERATED FROM STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS. AN ARCTIC FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL BRING ONSET OF
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS...SUSTAINED VALUES NEAR 20 KTS
ATTMS WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KTS. GUSTS NEAR 45 KTS ARE POSSIBLE
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING VCNTY OF KROA/KBCB/KTNB WHERE AIRFLOW WILL
BE THE STRONGEST OVER THE RIDGE CRESTS...SIMILAR TO WATER FLOWING
OVER A DAM.

IN ADDITION TO THE WIND...ANTICIPATE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS DUE TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NARROW CORRIDOR OF IFR
WILL EXIST ALONG THE NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIAN
DIVIDE FROM EKN-BLF-TNB WHERE VSBYS/CIGS MAY OBSCURE THE RIDGE
TOPS. EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...THE NORTHWEST WIND WILL RESULT IN
DOWNSLOPE DRYING WITH CLOUD BASES DISSOLVING AND RESULTING IN VFR.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY EVENING AND INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH NEAR CALM CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVERHEAD. MAIN CONCERN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BE
THE BITTER COLD...TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
ONSET OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT.  CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL EXIST FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WINTER STORM WILL PRODUCE A VARIETY OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...STARTING AS SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN TRANSITIONING
TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MONDAY. AFTER THE EARLY WEEK WINTER
STORM...THERE IS ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT THE
AREA FOR MID WEEK...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN THE CONTINUATION OF
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND. SEVERAL RECORD LOW
MAX TEMPERATURES AND LOW TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE. BELOW ARE THE
CURRENT RECORDS FOR SATURDAY 2/13 AND SUNDAY 2/14.

SATURDAY 02/13/2016
SITE   MINT YEAR  LOMAX YEAR
KBLF     4 1988     19 1988
KDAN    11 1955     32 1981
KLYH     5 1979      9 1899
KROA     8 1917     18 1914
KRNK    -4 1969     14 1955


SUNDAY 02/14/2016
SITE   MINT YEAR  LOMAX YEAR
KBLF     5 1971     16 1960
KDAN    15 1986     32 1986
KLYH     4 1899     24 1905
KROA    10 1943     26 1986
KRNK    -2 1969     24 1986

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR VAZ007-009-
     015.
NC...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NCZ001-002-018.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR WVZ042>044-507.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR WVZ042-043-
     508.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR WVZ508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/MBS
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...PM
CLIMATE...CF




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 130033
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
733 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST THIS EVENING.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING
IN THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS YEAR. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST UPDATED TO CANCEL THE WINTER STORM WARNG AND ADVSRY WITH
SNOW ENDING ACROSS SE VA/NE NC. WILL ISSUE A SPS FOR BLACK ICE
OVER THESE AREAS TNGT. -SN CONTINUES OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE
TNGT...WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TO STAY BLO ONE INCH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CENTERS 1014MB SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NC
COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS AREA OF LIGHT
SNOW MOVING ACROSS EAST/SOUTHEAST VA...WITH OBS AND RADAR RETURNS
INDICATING HEAVIEST SNOW OVER NE NC. THE HEAVIEST BAND OF
SNOW/SLEET AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING REMAINS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH
OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE HIGHLIGHTED
AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LIGHT SNOW WILL WIND DOWN ACROSS ERN
VA INTO SE VA BY 5 PM...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION.
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH AN ADDITIONAL 0.5 INCH OF
SNOWFALL STILL POSSIBLE BACK INTO ISLE OF WIGHT AND SOUTHAMPTON
COUNTIES. THE SFC LOW DEEPENS AND LIFTS NEWD AS THE UPPER LEVEL
WAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE. SNOW BAND WILL PIVOT INTO SE VA LATE TODAY
BEFORE THE LIGHT SNOW FINALLY PUSHES OFFSHORE EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY THEN PUSHES THRU THE REGION THIS EVENING. HAVE
INCREASED POPS FOR THE MD ERN SHORE TO LIKELY LATE THIS EVENING AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALONG THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1
TO 2 INCHES. NW WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY...INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH
COASTAL AREAS AND THE ERN SHORE. SKY CLEARS SW TO NE LATE
TONIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.
WIND CHILLS WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH LOCATES OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES SAT AS THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY PUSHES OFFSHORE. POLAR FRONT
PROGGED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS
INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE SAT...USHERING IN SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON. H85 TEMPS PLUMMET TO AROUND -18 TO -20C (-2 TO -3 STD
DEV). HIGHS ONLY FORECAST IN THE MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW 30S SE.
WINDY...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30 TO
35 MPH. GUSTS OVER THE EASTERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED TO
REACH 40 MPH. WHILE THE AIR MASS REMAINS VERY DRY (DEWPOINTS BELOW
0)...BAY STREAMERS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ERN
SHORE. WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE. SKY AVERAGES SUNNY
SOUTHWEST TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE. LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE IN WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION SAT NIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH INLAND...ALLOWING FOR GREAT
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWS PLUNGING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS INLAND TO UPPER TEENS NEAR THE COAST. WIND CHILL VALUES
GENERALLY 0 TO 5 ABOVE INLAND AND AROUND 5 BELOW NRN NECK TO THE ERN
SHORE. WILL HOLD OFF ON WIND CHILL ADVISORY ATTM.

THE ARCTIC HIGH CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC SUN...WITH HIGHS ONLY
WARMING INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S (-2 STD DEV). SKY AVERAGES MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH A LIGHT NY WIND. MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

THE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUN NIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. NRN STREAM ENERGY LIFTS
NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT/MONDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS MON. SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. POPS INCREASE LATE SUN
NIGHT AS THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM WEAKENS AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. AIR MASS WILL EASILY BE COLD ENOUGH SUN
NIGHT FOR ALL SNOW AS LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
AROUND 20. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE MON AS A COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENS
ALONG THE COAST AND THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP SOUTH LOW BEGINS TO LIFT
NEWD TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE
NW MONDAY MORNING...WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS ALL BUT SE VA/NE NC MON
AFTERNOON. WAA ALOFT/CRITICAL THICKNESSES STILL INDICATING A CHANGE
OVER FROM SN/IP MON MORNING TO RA CLOSER TO THE COAST MON AFTERNOON.
PTYPE LIKELY TO REMAIN ALL SNOW NW. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME TIMING
AND SPATIAL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...BUT CURRENT SNOWFALL
FORECAST CALLS FOR 1-2 INCHES ALONG THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR INTO
CENTRAL VA AND NRN VA...WITH 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE NW COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12/12Z NUMERICAL MODELS DEPICT LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NE FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS MONDAY EVENING...THEN RAPIDLY
DEEPENING AS IT LIFTS NE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY AS A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MIXED PCPN COULD CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING OVER THE PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD OCCUR IN
THE EVENING...WITH RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES SSE. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THE
LONGEST IN THE FAR NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES WHERE SOME POCKETS OF -FZRA
COULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT GENERALLY ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN ARE POSSIBLE LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A BAND OF STRONG VERTICAL ASCENT PASSES
OVER THE REGION. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS COULD PRODUCE A MODESTLY
STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE AREA FOR A 3-6HR
PERIOD TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM TO AT LEAST THE MID/UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH LOW 60S POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COAST...WHILE THE PIEDMONT STRUGGLES TO RISE ABOVE THE
UPPER 40S/LOW 50S. GENERALLY EXPECTING DRIER CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME 20-30% POPS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE N AS A
SECONDARY TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. DRY AND MILD
WEDNESDAY UNDER WNW FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. A
COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL...BUT WITHIN -1 ST DEV. A MODERATING TREND COMMENCES LATE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WK SFC LO PRES WILL BE EXITING NC/SC CST THIS AFTN/EVE. BROAD AREA
OF SN TO MOVE ACRS MNLY SE VA/NE NC. PD OF MDT SN PSBL FM ABT
20-23Z/12...ESP AT ECG. ELSW...DRY LO LVL ATMOS XPD TO PREVENT
ANYTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES RIC-SBY.

TROUGH ALOFT TO PUSH ACRS THE RGN TNGT...PTNTL FOR SCT -SN...MNLY
INVOF SBY FM ABT 02-03Z TO 08-09Z/13. OTRW...STRONG CDFNT TO PUSH
ACRS THE RGN OVRNGT. GUSTY NW WNDS TO 25-35 KT TO DEVELOP LT
TNGT/EARLY SAT MRNG...CONTG THROUGH THE DAY SAT. VFR AND DRY WX
WILL PREVAIL SAT THROUGH SUN NGT. PCPN DEVELOPS MONDAY AS THE NEXT
WX SYS APPROACHES FROM THE W. PCPN BEGINS AS SNOW MON MRNG...MNLY
INLAND...BEFORE WARMER AIR WORKS IN AND CHANGES ANY SN TO RA FROM
SE TO NW DURING MON. RA CONTS INTO TUESDAY AS LO PRES TRACKS ACRS
THE AREA. DRY WX RETURNS WED.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING ENE OFF THE NC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING
ACROSS THE ERN LAKES...WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT TRAILING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY...AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SPILLING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SN...WHICH WILL
REDUCE VSBY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING (MAINLY S). AS THE LOW
LIFTS TO THE NE TONIGHT THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS IN
FROM THE NW. A NW WIND WILL AVERAGE 25-30KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF
35-40KT OVER THE OCEAN AND BAY. SEAS BUILD TO 5-8FT WITH 4-5 FT
WAVES IN THE BAY. GALE FLAGS CONTINUE FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND...WIND SPEEDS REMAIN CAPPED
AT HIGH-END SCA AT THIS TIME. FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED AS
TEMPERATURES PLUMMET SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
FORM THE SW EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND TRACKS UP THE PIEDMONT TUESDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODESTLY STRONG SSE WIND AND BUILDING
SEAS/WAVES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE
BLOW-OUT TIDES / LOW WATER ADVISORIES FOR SOME AREAS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...AND MUCH OF THE COASTLINES SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. THE MAIN AREAS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THAT COULD HAVE
LOW WATER ARE ALONG THE ATLANITC COAST N OF CAPE CHARLES. A LOW
WATER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 08-13Z (3 TO 8 AM).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ633-635>638.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652-654.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM
NEAR TERM...MAS/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...ALB/MPR
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 130033
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
733 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST THIS EVENING.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING
IN THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS YEAR. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST UPDATED TO CANCEL THE WINTER STORM WARNG AND ADVSRY WITH
SNOW ENDING ACROSS SE VA/NE NC. WILL ISSUE A SPS FOR BLACK ICE
OVER THESE AREAS TNGT. -SN CONTINUES OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE
TNGT...WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TO STAY BLO ONE INCH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CENTERS 1014MB SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NC
COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS AREA OF LIGHT
SNOW MOVING ACROSS EAST/SOUTHEAST VA...WITH OBS AND RADAR RETURNS
INDICATING HEAVIEST SNOW OVER NE NC. THE HEAVIEST BAND OF
SNOW/SLEET AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING REMAINS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH
OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE HIGHLIGHTED
AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LIGHT SNOW WILL WIND DOWN ACROSS ERN
VA INTO SE VA BY 5 PM...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION.
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH AN ADDITIONAL 0.5 INCH OF
SNOWFALL STILL POSSIBLE BACK INTO ISLE OF WIGHT AND SOUTHAMPTON
COUNTIES. THE SFC LOW DEEPENS AND LIFTS NEWD AS THE UPPER LEVEL
WAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE. SNOW BAND WILL PIVOT INTO SE VA LATE TODAY
BEFORE THE LIGHT SNOW FINALLY PUSHES OFFSHORE EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY THEN PUSHES THRU THE REGION THIS EVENING. HAVE
INCREASED POPS FOR THE MD ERN SHORE TO LIKELY LATE THIS EVENING AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALONG THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1
TO 2 INCHES. NW WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY...INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH
COASTAL AREAS AND THE ERN SHORE. SKY CLEARS SW TO NE LATE
TONIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.
WIND CHILLS WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH LOCATES OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES SAT AS THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY PUSHES OFFSHORE. POLAR FRONT
PROGGED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS
INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE SAT...USHERING IN SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON. H85 TEMPS PLUMMET TO AROUND -18 TO -20C (-2 TO -3 STD
DEV). HIGHS ONLY FORECAST IN THE MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW 30S SE.
WINDY...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30 TO
35 MPH. GUSTS OVER THE EASTERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED TO
REACH 40 MPH. WHILE THE AIR MASS REMAINS VERY DRY (DEWPOINTS BELOW
0)...BAY STREAMERS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ERN
SHORE. WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE. SKY AVERAGES SUNNY
SOUTHWEST TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE. LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE IN WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION SAT NIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH INLAND...ALLOWING FOR GREAT
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWS PLUNGING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS INLAND TO UPPER TEENS NEAR THE COAST. WIND CHILL VALUES
GENERALLY 0 TO 5 ABOVE INLAND AND AROUND 5 BELOW NRN NECK TO THE ERN
SHORE. WILL HOLD OFF ON WIND CHILL ADVISORY ATTM.

THE ARCTIC HIGH CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC SUN...WITH HIGHS ONLY
WARMING INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S (-2 STD DEV). SKY AVERAGES MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH A LIGHT NY WIND. MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

THE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUN NIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. NRN STREAM ENERGY LIFTS
NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT/MONDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS MON. SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. POPS INCREASE LATE SUN
NIGHT AS THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM WEAKENS AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. AIR MASS WILL EASILY BE COLD ENOUGH SUN
NIGHT FOR ALL SNOW AS LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
AROUND 20. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE MON AS A COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENS
ALONG THE COAST AND THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP SOUTH LOW BEGINS TO LIFT
NEWD TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE
NW MONDAY MORNING...WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS ALL BUT SE VA/NE NC MON
AFTERNOON. WAA ALOFT/CRITICAL THICKNESSES STILL INDICATING A CHANGE
OVER FROM SN/IP MON MORNING TO RA CLOSER TO THE COAST MON AFTERNOON.
PTYPE LIKELY TO REMAIN ALL SNOW NW. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME TIMING
AND SPATIAL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...BUT CURRENT SNOWFALL
FORECAST CALLS FOR 1-2 INCHES ALONG THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR INTO
CENTRAL VA AND NRN VA...WITH 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE NW COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12/12Z NUMERICAL MODELS DEPICT LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NE FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS MONDAY EVENING...THEN RAPIDLY
DEEPENING AS IT LIFTS NE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY AS A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MIXED PCPN COULD CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING OVER THE PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD OCCUR IN
THE EVENING...WITH RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES SSE. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THE
LONGEST IN THE FAR NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES WHERE SOME POCKETS OF -FZRA
COULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT GENERALLY ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN ARE POSSIBLE LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A BAND OF STRONG VERTICAL ASCENT PASSES
OVER THE REGION. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS COULD PRODUCE A MODESTLY
STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE AREA FOR A 3-6HR
PERIOD TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM TO AT LEAST THE MID/UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH LOW 60S POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COAST...WHILE THE PIEDMONT STRUGGLES TO RISE ABOVE THE
UPPER 40S/LOW 50S. GENERALLY EXPECTING DRIER CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME 20-30% POPS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE N AS A
SECONDARY TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. DRY AND MILD
WEDNESDAY UNDER WNW FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. A
COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL...BUT WITHIN -1 ST DEV. A MODERATING TREND COMMENCES LATE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WK SFC LO PRES WILL BE EXITING NC/SC CST THIS AFTN/EVE. BROAD AREA
OF SN TO MOVE ACRS MNLY SE VA/NE NC. PD OF MDT SN PSBL FM ABT
20-23Z/12...ESP AT ECG. ELSW...DRY LO LVL ATMOS XPD TO PREVENT
ANYTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES RIC-SBY.

TROUGH ALOFT TO PUSH ACRS THE RGN TNGT...PTNTL FOR SCT -SN...MNLY
INVOF SBY FM ABT 02-03Z TO 08-09Z/13. OTRW...STRONG CDFNT TO PUSH
ACRS THE RGN OVRNGT. GUSTY NW WNDS TO 25-35 KT TO DEVELOP LT
TNGT/EARLY SAT MRNG...CONTG THROUGH THE DAY SAT. VFR AND DRY WX
WILL PREVAIL SAT THROUGH SUN NGT. PCPN DEVELOPS MONDAY AS THE NEXT
WX SYS APPROACHES FROM THE W. PCPN BEGINS AS SNOW MON MRNG...MNLY
INLAND...BEFORE WARMER AIR WORKS IN AND CHANGES ANY SN TO RA FROM
SE TO NW DURING MON. RA CONTS INTO TUESDAY AS LO PRES TRACKS ACRS
THE AREA. DRY WX RETURNS WED.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING ENE OFF THE NC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING
ACROSS THE ERN LAKES...WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT TRAILING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY...AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SPILLING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SN...WHICH WILL
REDUCE VSBY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING (MAINLY S). AS THE LOW
LIFTS TO THE NE TONIGHT THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS IN
FROM THE NW. A NW WIND WILL AVERAGE 25-30KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF
35-40KT OVER THE OCEAN AND BAY. SEAS BUILD TO 5-8FT WITH 4-5 FT
WAVES IN THE BAY. GALE FLAGS CONTINUE FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND...WIND SPEEDS REMAIN CAPPED
AT HIGH-END SCA AT THIS TIME. FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED AS
TEMPERATURES PLUMMET SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
FORM THE SW EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND TRACKS UP THE PIEDMONT TUESDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODESTLY STRONG SSE WIND AND BUILDING
SEAS/WAVES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE
BLOW-OUT TIDES / LOW WATER ADVISORIES FOR SOME AREAS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...AND MUCH OF THE COASTLINES SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. THE MAIN AREAS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THAT COULD HAVE
LOW WATER ARE ALONG THE ATLANITC COAST N OF CAPE CHARLES. A LOW
WATER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 08-13Z (3 TO 8 AM).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ633-635>638.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652-654.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM
NEAR TERM...MAS/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...ALB/MPR
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 130033
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
733 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST THIS EVENING.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING
IN THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS YEAR. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST UPDATED TO CANCEL THE WINTER STORM WARNG AND ADVSRY WITH
SNOW ENDING ACROSS SE VA/NE NC. WILL ISSUE A SPS FOR BLACK ICE
OVER THESE AREAS TNGT. -SN CONTINUES OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE
TNGT...WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TO STAY BLO ONE INCH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CENTERS 1014MB SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NC
COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS AREA OF LIGHT
SNOW MOVING ACROSS EAST/SOUTHEAST VA...WITH OBS AND RADAR RETURNS
INDICATING HEAVIEST SNOW OVER NE NC. THE HEAVIEST BAND OF
SNOW/SLEET AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING REMAINS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH
OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE HIGHLIGHTED
AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LIGHT SNOW WILL WIND DOWN ACROSS ERN
VA INTO SE VA BY 5 PM...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION.
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH AN ADDITIONAL 0.5 INCH OF
SNOWFALL STILL POSSIBLE BACK INTO ISLE OF WIGHT AND SOUTHAMPTON
COUNTIES. THE SFC LOW DEEPENS AND LIFTS NEWD AS THE UPPER LEVEL
WAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE. SNOW BAND WILL PIVOT INTO SE VA LATE TODAY
BEFORE THE LIGHT SNOW FINALLY PUSHES OFFSHORE EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY THEN PUSHES THRU THE REGION THIS EVENING. HAVE
INCREASED POPS FOR THE MD ERN SHORE TO LIKELY LATE THIS EVENING AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALONG THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1
TO 2 INCHES. NW WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY...INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH
COASTAL AREAS AND THE ERN SHORE. SKY CLEARS SW TO NE LATE
TONIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.
WIND CHILLS WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH LOCATES OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES SAT AS THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY PUSHES OFFSHORE. POLAR FRONT
PROGGED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS
INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE SAT...USHERING IN SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON. H85 TEMPS PLUMMET TO AROUND -18 TO -20C (-2 TO -3 STD
DEV). HIGHS ONLY FORECAST IN THE MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW 30S SE.
WINDY...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30 TO
35 MPH. GUSTS OVER THE EASTERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED TO
REACH 40 MPH. WHILE THE AIR MASS REMAINS VERY DRY (DEWPOINTS BELOW
0)...BAY STREAMERS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ERN
SHORE. WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE. SKY AVERAGES SUNNY
SOUTHWEST TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE. LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE IN WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION SAT NIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH INLAND...ALLOWING FOR GREAT
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWS PLUNGING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS INLAND TO UPPER TEENS NEAR THE COAST. WIND CHILL VALUES
GENERALLY 0 TO 5 ABOVE INLAND AND AROUND 5 BELOW NRN NECK TO THE ERN
SHORE. WILL HOLD OFF ON WIND CHILL ADVISORY ATTM.

THE ARCTIC HIGH CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC SUN...WITH HIGHS ONLY
WARMING INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S (-2 STD DEV). SKY AVERAGES MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH A LIGHT NY WIND. MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

THE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUN NIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. NRN STREAM ENERGY LIFTS
NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT/MONDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS MON. SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. POPS INCREASE LATE SUN
NIGHT AS THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM WEAKENS AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. AIR MASS WILL EASILY BE COLD ENOUGH SUN
NIGHT FOR ALL SNOW AS LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
AROUND 20. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE MON AS A COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENS
ALONG THE COAST AND THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP SOUTH LOW BEGINS TO LIFT
NEWD TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE
NW MONDAY MORNING...WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS ALL BUT SE VA/NE NC MON
AFTERNOON. WAA ALOFT/CRITICAL THICKNESSES STILL INDICATING A CHANGE
OVER FROM SN/IP MON MORNING TO RA CLOSER TO THE COAST MON AFTERNOON.
PTYPE LIKELY TO REMAIN ALL SNOW NW. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME TIMING
AND SPATIAL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...BUT CURRENT SNOWFALL
FORECAST CALLS FOR 1-2 INCHES ALONG THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR INTO
CENTRAL VA AND NRN VA...WITH 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE NW COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12/12Z NUMERICAL MODELS DEPICT LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NE FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS MONDAY EVENING...THEN RAPIDLY
DEEPENING AS IT LIFTS NE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY AS A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MIXED PCPN COULD CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING OVER THE PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD OCCUR IN
THE EVENING...WITH RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES SSE. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THE
LONGEST IN THE FAR NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES WHERE SOME POCKETS OF -FZRA
COULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT GENERALLY ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN ARE POSSIBLE LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A BAND OF STRONG VERTICAL ASCENT PASSES
OVER THE REGION. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS COULD PRODUCE A MODESTLY
STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE AREA FOR A 3-6HR
PERIOD TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM TO AT LEAST THE MID/UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH LOW 60S POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COAST...WHILE THE PIEDMONT STRUGGLES TO RISE ABOVE THE
UPPER 40S/LOW 50S. GENERALLY EXPECTING DRIER CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME 20-30% POPS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE N AS A
SECONDARY TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. DRY AND MILD
WEDNESDAY UNDER WNW FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. A
COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL...BUT WITHIN -1 ST DEV. A MODERATING TREND COMMENCES LATE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WK SFC LO PRES WILL BE EXITING NC/SC CST THIS AFTN/EVE. BROAD AREA
OF SN TO MOVE ACRS MNLY SE VA/NE NC. PD OF MDT SN PSBL FM ABT
20-23Z/12...ESP AT ECG. ELSW...DRY LO LVL ATMOS XPD TO PREVENT
ANYTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES RIC-SBY.

TROUGH ALOFT TO PUSH ACRS THE RGN TNGT...PTNTL FOR SCT -SN...MNLY
INVOF SBY FM ABT 02-03Z TO 08-09Z/13. OTRW...STRONG CDFNT TO PUSH
ACRS THE RGN OVRNGT. GUSTY NW WNDS TO 25-35 KT TO DEVELOP LT
TNGT/EARLY SAT MRNG...CONTG THROUGH THE DAY SAT. VFR AND DRY WX
WILL PREVAIL SAT THROUGH SUN NGT. PCPN DEVELOPS MONDAY AS THE NEXT
WX SYS APPROACHES FROM THE W. PCPN BEGINS AS SNOW MON MRNG...MNLY
INLAND...BEFORE WARMER AIR WORKS IN AND CHANGES ANY SN TO RA FROM
SE TO NW DURING MON. RA CONTS INTO TUESDAY AS LO PRES TRACKS ACRS
THE AREA. DRY WX RETURNS WED.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING ENE OFF THE NC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING
ACROSS THE ERN LAKES...WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT TRAILING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY...AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SPILLING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SN...WHICH WILL
REDUCE VSBY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING (MAINLY S). AS THE LOW
LIFTS TO THE NE TONIGHT THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS IN
FROM THE NW. A NW WIND WILL AVERAGE 25-30KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF
35-40KT OVER THE OCEAN AND BAY. SEAS BUILD TO 5-8FT WITH 4-5 FT
WAVES IN THE BAY. GALE FLAGS CONTINUE FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND...WIND SPEEDS REMAIN CAPPED
AT HIGH-END SCA AT THIS TIME. FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED AS
TEMPERATURES PLUMMET SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
FORM THE SW EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND TRACKS UP THE PIEDMONT TUESDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODESTLY STRONG SSE WIND AND BUILDING
SEAS/WAVES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE
BLOW-OUT TIDES / LOW WATER ADVISORIES FOR SOME AREAS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...AND MUCH OF THE COASTLINES SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. THE MAIN AREAS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THAT COULD HAVE
LOW WATER ARE ALONG THE ATLANITC COAST N OF CAPE CHARLES. A LOW
WATER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 08-13Z (3 TO 8 AM).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ633-635>638.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652-654.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM
NEAR TERM...MAS/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...ALB/MPR
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 122255
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
555 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST THIS EVENING.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING
IN THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS YEAR. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CENTERS 1014MB SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NC COAST
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS AREA OF LIGHT SNOW
MOVING ACROSS EAST/SOUTHEAST VA...WITH OBS AND RADAR RETURNS
INDICATING HEAVIEST SNOW OVER NE NC. THE HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW/SLEET
AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING REMAINS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LIGHT SNOW WILL WIND DOWN ACROSS ERN VA INTO SE
VA BY 5 PM...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. ADVISORIES REMAIN
IN EFFECT WITH AN ADDITIONAL 0.5 INCH OF SNOWFALL STILL POSSIBLE
BACK INTO ISLE OF WIGHT AND SOUTHAMPTON COUNTIES. THE SFC LOW
DEEPENS AND LIFTS NEWD AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE. SNOW
BAND WILL PIVOT INTO SE VA LATE TODAY BEFORE THE LIGHT SNOW FINALLY
PUSHES OFFSHORE EARLY THIS EVENING. THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY THEN PUSHES
THRU THE REGION THIS EVENING. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THE MD ERN
SHORE TO LIKELY LATE THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALONG THE
ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES. NW WINDS
INCREASE BEHIND THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY...INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH COASTAL AREAS AND THE ERN SHORE. SKY CLEARS
SW TO NE LATE TONIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE TEENS
TO LOW 20S. WIND CHILLS WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH LOCATES OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES SAT AS THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY PUSHES OFFSHORE. POLAR FRONT
PROGGED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS
INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE SAT...USHERING IN SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON. H85 TEMPS PLUMMET TO AROUND -18 TO -20C (-2 TO -3 STD
DEV). HIGHS ONLY FORECAST IN THE MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW 30S SE.
WINDY...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30 TO
35 MPH. GUSTS OVER THE EASTERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED TO
REACH 40 MPH. WHILE THE AIR MASS REMAINS VERY DRY (DEWPOINTS BELOW
0)...BAY STREAMERS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ERN
SHORE. WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE. SKY AVERAGES SUNNY
SOUTHWEST TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE. LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE IN WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION SAT NIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH INLAND...ALLOWING FOR GREAT
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWS PLUNGING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS INLAND TO UPPER TEENS NEAR THE COAST. WIND CHILL VALUES
GENERALLY 0 TO 5 ABOVE INLAND AND AROUND 5 BELOW NRN NECK TO THE ERN
SHORE. WILL HOLD OFF ON WIND CHILL ADVISORY ATTM.

THE ARCTIC HIGH CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC SUN...WITH HIGHS ONLY
WARMING INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S (-2 STD DEV). SKY AVERAGES MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH A LIGHT NY WIND. MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

THE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUN NIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. NRN STREAM ENERGY LIFTS
NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT/MONDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS MON. SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. POPS INCREASE LATE SUN
NIGHT AS THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM WEAKENS AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. AIR MASS WILL EASILY BE COLD ENOUGH SUN
NIGHT FOR ALL SNOW AS LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
AROUND 20. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE MON AS A COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENS
ALONG THE COAST AND THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP SOUTH LOW BEGINS TO LIFT
NEWD TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE
NW MONDAY MORNING...WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS ALL BUT SE VA/NE NC MON
AFTERNOON. WAA ALOFT/CRITICAL THICKNESSES STILL INDICATING A CHANGE
OVER FROM SN/IP MON MORNING TO RA CLOSER TO THE COAST MON AFTERNOON.
PTYPE LIKELY TO REMAIN ALL SNOW NW. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME TIMING
AND SPATIAL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...BUT CURRENT SNOWFALL
FORECAST CALLS FOR 1-2 INCHES ALONG THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR INTO
CENTRAL VA AND NRN VA...WITH 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE NW COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12/12Z NUMERICAL MODELS DEPICT LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NE FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS MONDAY EVENING...THEN RAPIDLY
DEEPENING AS IT LIFTS NE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY AS A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MIXED PCPN COULD CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING OVER THE PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD OCCUR IN
THE EVENING...WITH RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES SSE. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THE
LONGEST IN THE FAR NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES WHERE SOME POCKETS OF -FZRA
COULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT GENERALLY ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN ARE POSSIBLE LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A BAND OF STRONG VERTICAL ASCENT PASSES
OVER THE REGION. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS COULD PRODUCE A MODESTLY
STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE AREA FOR A 3-6HR
PERIOD TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM TO AT LEAST THE MID/UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH LOW 60S POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COAST...WHILE THE PIEDMONT STRUGGLES TO RISE ABOVE THE
UPPER 40S/LOW 50S. GENERALLY EXPECTING DRIER CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME 20-30% POPS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE N AS A
SECONDARY TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. DRY AND MILD
WEDNESDAY UNDER WNW FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. A
COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL...BUT WITHIN -1 ST DEV. A MODERATING TREND COMMENCES LATE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WK SFC LO PRES WILL BE EXITING NC/SC CST THIS AFTN/EVE. BROAD AREA
OF SN TO MOVE ACRS MNLY SE VA/NE NC. PD OF MDT SN PSBL FM ABT
20-23Z/12...ESP AT ECG. ELSW...DRY LO LVL ATMOS XPD TO PREVENT
ANYTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES RIC-SBY.

TROUGH ALOFT TO PUSH ACRS THE RGN TNGT...PTNTL FOR SCT -SN...MNLY
INVOF SBY FM ABT 02-03Z TO 08-09Z/13. OTRW...STRONG CDFNT TO PUSH
ACRS THE RGN OVRNGT. GUSTY NW WNDS TO 25-35 KT TO DEVELOP LT
TNGT/EARLY SAT MRNG...CONTG THROUGH THE DAY SAT. VFR AND DRY WX
WILL PREVAIL SAT THROUGH SUN NGT. PCPN DEVELOPS MONDAY AS THE NEXT
WX SYS APPROACHES FROM THE W. PCPN BEGINS AS SNOW MON MRNG...MNLY
INLAND...BEFORE WARMER AIR WORKS IN AND CHANGES ANY SN TO RA FROM
SE TO NW DURING MON. RA CONTS INTO TUESDAY AS LO PRES TRACKS ACRS
THE AREA. DRY WX RETURNS WED.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING ENE OFF THE NC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING
ACROSS THE ERN LAKES...WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT TRAILING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY...AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SPILLING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SN...WHICH WILL
REDUCE VSBY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING (MAINLY S). AS THE LOW
LIFTS TO THE NE TONIGHT THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS IN
FROM THE NW. A NW WIND WILL AVERAGE 25-30KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF
35-40KT OVER THE OCEAN AND BAY. SEAS BUILD TO 5-8FT WITH 4-5 FT
WAVES IN THE BAY. GALE FLAGS CONTINUE FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND...WIND SPEEDS REMAIN CAPPED
AT HIGH-END SCA AT THIS TIME. FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED AS
TEMPERATURES PLUMMET SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
FORM THE SW EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND TRACKS UP THE PIEDMONT TUESDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODESTLY STRONG SSE WIND AND BUILDING
SEAS/WAVES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE
BLOW-OUT TIDES / LOW WATER ADVISORIES FOR SOME AREAS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...AND MUCH OF THE COASTLINES SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. THE MAIN AREAS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THAT COULD HAVE
LOW WATER ARE ALONG THE ATLANITC COAST N OF CAPE CHARLES. A LOW
WATER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 08-13Z (3 TO 8 AM).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     NCZ012>014.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ015>017-
     030>032-102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ092-
     093-095>098-100-523>525.
MARINE...LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652-654.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ633-635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...ALB/MPR
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AJZ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 122255
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
555 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST THIS EVENING.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING
IN THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS YEAR. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CENTERS 1014MB SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NC COAST
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS AREA OF LIGHT SNOW
MOVING ACROSS EAST/SOUTHEAST VA...WITH OBS AND RADAR RETURNS
INDICATING HEAVIEST SNOW OVER NE NC. THE HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW/SLEET
AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING REMAINS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LIGHT SNOW WILL WIND DOWN ACROSS ERN VA INTO SE
VA BY 5 PM...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. ADVISORIES REMAIN
IN EFFECT WITH AN ADDITIONAL 0.5 INCH OF SNOWFALL STILL POSSIBLE
BACK INTO ISLE OF WIGHT AND SOUTHAMPTON COUNTIES. THE SFC LOW
DEEPENS AND LIFTS NEWD AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE. SNOW
BAND WILL PIVOT INTO SE VA LATE TODAY BEFORE THE LIGHT SNOW FINALLY
PUSHES OFFSHORE EARLY THIS EVENING. THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY THEN PUSHES
THRU THE REGION THIS EVENING. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THE MD ERN
SHORE TO LIKELY LATE THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALONG THE
ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES. NW WINDS
INCREASE BEHIND THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY...INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH COASTAL AREAS AND THE ERN SHORE. SKY CLEARS
SW TO NE LATE TONIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE TEENS
TO LOW 20S. WIND CHILLS WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH LOCATES OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES SAT AS THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY PUSHES OFFSHORE. POLAR FRONT
PROGGED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS
INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE SAT...USHERING IN SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON. H85 TEMPS PLUMMET TO AROUND -18 TO -20C (-2 TO -3 STD
DEV). HIGHS ONLY FORECAST IN THE MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW 30S SE.
WINDY...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30 TO
35 MPH. GUSTS OVER THE EASTERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED TO
REACH 40 MPH. WHILE THE AIR MASS REMAINS VERY DRY (DEWPOINTS BELOW
0)...BAY STREAMERS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ERN
SHORE. WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE. SKY AVERAGES SUNNY
SOUTHWEST TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE. LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE IN WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION SAT NIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH INLAND...ALLOWING FOR GREAT
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWS PLUNGING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS INLAND TO UPPER TEENS NEAR THE COAST. WIND CHILL VALUES
GENERALLY 0 TO 5 ABOVE INLAND AND AROUND 5 BELOW NRN NECK TO THE ERN
SHORE. WILL HOLD OFF ON WIND CHILL ADVISORY ATTM.

THE ARCTIC HIGH CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC SUN...WITH HIGHS ONLY
WARMING INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S (-2 STD DEV). SKY AVERAGES MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH A LIGHT NY WIND. MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

THE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUN NIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. NRN STREAM ENERGY LIFTS
NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT/MONDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS MON. SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. POPS INCREASE LATE SUN
NIGHT AS THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM WEAKENS AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. AIR MASS WILL EASILY BE COLD ENOUGH SUN
NIGHT FOR ALL SNOW AS LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
AROUND 20. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE MON AS A COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENS
ALONG THE COAST AND THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP SOUTH LOW BEGINS TO LIFT
NEWD TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE
NW MONDAY MORNING...WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS ALL BUT SE VA/NE NC MON
AFTERNOON. WAA ALOFT/CRITICAL THICKNESSES STILL INDICATING A CHANGE
OVER FROM SN/IP MON MORNING TO RA CLOSER TO THE COAST MON AFTERNOON.
PTYPE LIKELY TO REMAIN ALL SNOW NW. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME TIMING
AND SPATIAL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...BUT CURRENT SNOWFALL
FORECAST CALLS FOR 1-2 INCHES ALONG THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR INTO
CENTRAL VA AND NRN VA...WITH 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE NW COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12/12Z NUMERICAL MODELS DEPICT LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NE FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS MONDAY EVENING...THEN RAPIDLY
DEEPENING AS IT LIFTS NE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY AS A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MIXED PCPN COULD CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING OVER THE PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD OCCUR IN
THE EVENING...WITH RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES SSE. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THE
LONGEST IN THE FAR NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES WHERE SOME POCKETS OF -FZRA
COULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT GENERALLY ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN ARE POSSIBLE LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A BAND OF STRONG VERTICAL ASCENT PASSES
OVER THE REGION. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS COULD PRODUCE A MODESTLY
STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE AREA FOR A 3-6HR
PERIOD TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM TO AT LEAST THE MID/UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH LOW 60S POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COAST...WHILE THE PIEDMONT STRUGGLES TO RISE ABOVE THE
UPPER 40S/LOW 50S. GENERALLY EXPECTING DRIER CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME 20-30% POPS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE N AS A
SECONDARY TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. DRY AND MILD
WEDNESDAY UNDER WNW FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. A
COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL...BUT WITHIN -1 ST DEV. A MODERATING TREND COMMENCES LATE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WK SFC LO PRES WILL BE EXITING NC/SC CST THIS AFTN/EVE. BROAD AREA
OF SN TO MOVE ACRS MNLY SE VA/NE NC. PD OF MDT SN PSBL FM ABT
20-23Z/12...ESP AT ECG. ELSW...DRY LO LVL ATMOS XPD TO PREVENT
ANYTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES RIC-SBY.

TROUGH ALOFT TO PUSH ACRS THE RGN TNGT...PTNTL FOR SCT -SN...MNLY
INVOF SBY FM ABT 02-03Z TO 08-09Z/13. OTRW...STRONG CDFNT TO PUSH
ACRS THE RGN OVRNGT. GUSTY NW WNDS TO 25-35 KT TO DEVELOP LT
TNGT/EARLY SAT MRNG...CONTG THROUGH THE DAY SAT. VFR AND DRY WX
WILL PREVAIL SAT THROUGH SUN NGT. PCPN DEVELOPS MONDAY AS THE NEXT
WX SYS APPROACHES FROM THE W. PCPN BEGINS AS SNOW MON MRNG...MNLY
INLAND...BEFORE WARMER AIR WORKS IN AND CHANGES ANY SN TO RA FROM
SE TO NW DURING MON. RA CONTS INTO TUESDAY AS LO PRES TRACKS ACRS
THE AREA. DRY WX RETURNS WED.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING ENE OFF THE NC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING
ACROSS THE ERN LAKES...WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT TRAILING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY...AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SPILLING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SN...WHICH WILL
REDUCE VSBY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING (MAINLY S). AS THE LOW
LIFTS TO THE NE TONIGHT THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS IN
FROM THE NW. A NW WIND WILL AVERAGE 25-30KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF
35-40KT OVER THE OCEAN AND BAY. SEAS BUILD TO 5-8FT WITH 4-5 FT
WAVES IN THE BAY. GALE FLAGS CONTINUE FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND...WIND SPEEDS REMAIN CAPPED
AT HIGH-END SCA AT THIS TIME. FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED AS
TEMPERATURES PLUMMET SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
FORM THE SW EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND TRACKS UP THE PIEDMONT TUESDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODESTLY STRONG SSE WIND AND BUILDING
SEAS/WAVES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE
BLOW-OUT TIDES / LOW WATER ADVISORIES FOR SOME AREAS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...AND MUCH OF THE COASTLINES SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. THE MAIN AREAS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THAT COULD HAVE
LOW WATER ARE ALONG THE ATLANITC COAST N OF CAPE CHARLES. A LOW
WATER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 08-13Z (3 TO 8 AM).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     NCZ012>014.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ015>017-
     030>032-102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ092-
     093-095>098-100-523>525.
MARINE...LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652-654.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ633-635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...ALB/MPR
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AJZ



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 122255
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
555 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST THIS EVENING.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING
IN THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS YEAR. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CENTERS 1014MB SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NC COAST
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS AREA OF LIGHT SNOW
MOVING ACROSS EAST/SOUTHEAST VA...WITH OBS AND RADAR RETURNS
INDICATING HEAVIEST SNOW OVER NE NC. THE HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW/SLEET
AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING REMAINS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LIGHT SNOW WILL WIND DOWN ACROSS ERN VA INTO SE
VA BY 5 PM...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. ADVISORIES REMAIN
IN EFFECT WITH AN ADDITIONAL 0.5 INCH OF SNOWFALL STILL POSSIBLE
BACK INTO ISLE OF WIGHT AND SOUTHAMPTON COUNTIES. THE SFC LOW
DEEPENS AND LIFTS NEWD AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE. SNOW
BAND WILL PIVOT INTO SE VA LATE TODAY BEFORE THE LIGHT SNOW FINALLY
PUSHES OFFSHORE EARLY THIS EVENING. THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY THEN PUSHES
THRU THE REGION THIS EVENING. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THE MD ERN
SHORE TO LIKELY LATE THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALONG THE
ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES. NW WINDS
INCREASE BEHIND THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY...INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH COASTAL AREAS AND THE ERN SHORE. SKY CLEARS
SW TO NE LATE TONIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE TEENS
TO LOW 20S. WIND CHILLS WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH LOCATES OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES SAT AS THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY PUSHES OFFSHORE. POLAR FRONT
PROGGED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS
INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE SAT...USHERING IN SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON. H85 TEMPS PLUMMET TO AROUND -18 TO -20C (-2 TO -3 STD
DEV). HIGHS ONLY FORECAST IN THE MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW 30S SE.
WINDY...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30 TO
35 MPH. GUSTS OVER THE EASTERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED TO
REACH 40 MPH. WHILE THE AIR MASS REMAINS VERY DRY (DEWPOINTS BELOW
0)...BAY STREAMERS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ERN
SHORE. WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE. SKY AVERAGES SUNNY
SOUTHWEST TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE. LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE IN WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION SAT NIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH INLAND...ALLOWING FOR GREAT
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWS PLUNGING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS INLAND TO UPPER TEENS NEAR THE COAST. WIND CHILL VALUES
GENERALLY 0 TO 5 ABOVE INLAND AND AROUND 5 BELOW NRN NECK TO THE ERN
SHORE. WILL HOLD OFF ON WIND CHILL ADVISORY ATTM.

THE ARCTIC HIGH CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC SUN...WITH HIGHS ONLY
WARMING INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S (-2 STD DEV). SKY AVERAGES MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH A LIGHT NY WIND. MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

THE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUN NIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. NRN STREAM ENERGY LIFTS
NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT/MONDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS MON. SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. POPS INCREASE LATE SUN
NIGHT AS THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM WEAKENS AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. AIR MASS WILL EASILY BE COLD ENOUGH SUN
NIGHT FOR ALL SNOW AS LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
AROUND 20. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE MON AS A COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENS
ALONG THE COAST AND THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP SOUTH LOW BEGINS TO LIFT
NEWD TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE
NW MONDAY MORNING...WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS ALL BUT SE VA/NE NC MON
AFTERNOON. WAA ALOFT/CRITICAL THICKNESSES STILL INDICATING A CHANGE
OVER FROM SN/IP MON MORNING TO RA CLOSER TO THE COAST MON AFTERNOON.
PTYPE LIKELY TO REMAIN ALL SNOW NW. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME TIMING
AND SPATIAL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...BUT CURRENT SNOWFALL
FORECAST CALLS FOR 1-2 INCHES ALONG THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR INTO
CENTRAL VA AND NRN VA...WITH 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE NW COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12/12Z NUMERICAL MODELS DEPICT LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NE FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS MONDAY EVENING...THEN RAPIDLY
DEEPENING AS IT LIFTS NE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY AS A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MIXED PCPN COULD CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING OVER THE PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD OCCUR IN
THE EVENING...WITH RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES SSE. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THE
LONGEST IN THE FAR NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES WHERE SOME POCKETS OF -FZRA
COULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT GENERALLY ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN ARE POSSIBLE LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A BAND OF STRONG VERTICAL ASCENT PASSES
OVER THE REGION. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS COULD PRODUCE A MODESTLY
STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE AREA FOR A 3-6HR
PERIOD TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM TO AT LEAST THE MID/UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH LOW 60S POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COAST...WHILE THE PIEDMONT STRUGGLES TO RISE ABOVE THE
UPPER 40S/LOW 50S. GENERALLY EXPECTING DRIER CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME 20-30% POPS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE N AS A
SECONDARY TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. DRY AND MILD
WEDNESDAY UNDER WNW FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. A
COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL...BUT WITHIN -1 ST DEV. A MODERATING TREND COMMENCES LATE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WK SFC LO PRES WILL BE EXITING NC/SC CST THIS AFTN/EVE. BROAD AREA
OF SN TO MOVE ACRS MNLY SE VA/NE NC. PD OF MDT SN PSBL FM ABT
20-23Z/12...ESP AT ECG. ELSW...DRY LO LVL ATMOS XPD TO PREVENT
ANYTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES RIC-SBY.

TROUGH ALOFT TO PUSH ACRS THE RGN TNGT...PTNTL FOR SCT -SN...MNLY
INVOF SBY FM ABT 02-03Z TO 08-09Z/13. OTRW...STRONG CDFNT TO PUSH
ACRS THE RGN OVRNGT. GUSTY NW WNDS TO 25-35 KT TO DEVELOP LT
TNGT/EARLY SAT MRNG...CONTG THROUGH THE DAY SAT. VFR AND DRY WX
WILL PREVAIL SAT THROUGH SUN NGT. PCPN DEVELOPS MONDAY AS THE NEXT
WX SYS APPROACHES FROM THE W. PCPN BEGINS AS SNOW MON MRNG...MNLY
INLAND...BEFORE WARMER AIR WORKS IN AND CHANGES ANY SN TO RA FROM
SE TO NW DURING MON. RA CONTS INTO TUESDAY AS LO PRES TRACKS ACRS
THE AREA. DRY WX RETURNS WED.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING ENE OFF THE NC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING
ACROSS THE ERN LAKES...WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT TRAILING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY...AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SPILLING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SN...WHICH WILL
REDUCE VSBY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING (MAINLY S). AS THE LOW
LIFTS TO THE NE TONIGHT THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS IN
FROM THE NW. A NW WIND WILL AVERAGE 25-30KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF
35-40KT OVER THE OCEAN AND BAY. SEAS BUILD TO 5-8FT WITH 4-5 FT
WAVES IN THE BAY. GALE FLAGS CONTINUE FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND...WIND SPEEDS REMAIN CAPPED
AT HIGH-END SCA AT THIS TIME. FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED AS
TEMPERATURES PLUMMET SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
FORM THE SW EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND TRACKS UP THE PIEDMONT TUESDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODESTLY STRONG SSE WIND AND BUILDING
SEAS/WAVES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE
BLOW-OUT TIDES / LOW WATER ADVISORIES FOR SOME AREAS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...AND MUCH OF THE COASTLINES SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. THE MAIN AREAS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THAT COULD HAVE
LOW WATER ARE ALONG THE ATLANITC COAST N OF CAPE CHARLES. A LOW
WATER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 08-13Z (3 TO 8 AM).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     NCZ012>014.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ015>017-
     030>032-102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ092-
     093-095>098-100-523>525.
MARINE...LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652-654.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ633-635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...ALB/MPR
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AJZ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 122101
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
401 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST THIS EVENING.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING
IN THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS YEAR. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CENTERS 1014MB SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NC COAST
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS AREA OF LIGHT SNOW
MOVING ACROSS EAST/SOUTHEAST VA...WITH OBS AND RADAR RETURNS
INDICATING HEAVIEST SNOW OVER NE NC. THE HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW/SLEET
AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING REMAINS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LIGHT SNOW WILL WIND DOWN ACROSS ERN VA INTO SE
VA BY 5 PM...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. ADVISORIES REMAIN
IN EFFECT WITH AN ADDITIONAL 0.5 INCH OF SNOWFALL STILL POSSIBLE
BACK INTO ISLE OF WIGHT AND SOUTHAMPTON COUNTIES. THE SFC LOW
DEEPENS AND LIFTS NEWD AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE. SNOW
BAND WILL PIVOT INTO SE VA LATE TODAY BEFORE THE LIGHT SNOW FINALLY
PUSHES OFFSHORE EARLY THIS EVENING. THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY THEN PUSHES
THRU THE REGION THIS EVENING. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THE MD ERN
SHORE TO LIKELY LATE THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALONG THE
ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES. NW WINDS
INCREASE BEHIND THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY...INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH COASTAL AREAS AND THE ERN SHORE. SKY CLEARS
SW TO NE LATE TONIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE TEENS
TO LOW 20S. WIND CHILLS WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH LOCATES OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES SAT AS THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY PUSHES OFFSHORE. POLAR FRONT
PROGGED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS
INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE SAT...USHERING IN SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON. H85 TEMPS PLUMMET TO AROUND -18 TO -20C (-2 TO -3 STD
DEV). HIGHS ONLY FORECAST IN THE MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW 30S SE.
WINDY...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30 TO
35 MPH. GUSTS OVER THE EASTERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED TO
REACH 40 MPH. WHILE THE AIR MASS REMAINS VERY DRY (DEWPOINTS BELOW
0)...BAY STREAMERS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ERN
SHORE. WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE. SKY AVERAGES SUNNY
SOUTHWEST TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE. LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE IN WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION SAT NIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH INLAND...ALLOWING FOR GREAT
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWS PLUNGING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS INLAND TO UPPER TEENS NEAR THE COAST. WIND CHILL VALUES
GENERALLY 0 TO 5 ABOVE INLAND AND AROUND 5 BELOW NRN NECK TO THE ERN
SHORE. WILL HOLD OFF ON WIND CHILL ADVISORY ATTM.

THE ARCTIC HIGH CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC SUN...WITH HIGHS ONLY
WARMING INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S (-2 STD DEV). SKY AVERAGES MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH A LIGHT NY WIND. MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

THE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUN NIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. NRN STREAM ENERGY LIFTS
NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT/MONDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS MON. SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. POPS INCREASE LATE SUN
NIGHT AS THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM WEAKENS AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. AIR MASS WILL EASILY BE COLD ENOUGH SUN
NIGHT FOR ALL SNOW AS LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
AROUND 20. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE MON AS A COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENS
ALONG THE COAST AND THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP SOUTH LOW BEGINS TO LIFT
NEWD TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE
NW MONDAY MORNING...WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS ALL BUT SE VA/NE NC MON
AFTERNOON. WAA ALOFT/CRITICAL THICKNESSES STILL INDICATING A CHANGE
OVER FROM SN/IP MON MORNING TO RA CLOSER TO THE COAST MON AFTERNOON.
PTYPE LIKELY TO REMAIN ALL SNOW NW. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME TIMING
AND SPATIAL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...BUT CURRENT SNOWFALL
FORECAST CALLS FOR 1-2 INCHES ALONG THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR INTO
CENTRAL VA AND NRN VA...WITH 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE NW COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12/12Z NUMERICAL MODELS DEPICT LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NE FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS MONDAY EVENING...THEN RAPIDLY
DEEPENING AS IT LIFTS NE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY AS A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MIXED PCPN COULD CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING OVER THE PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD OCCUR IN
THE EVENING...WITH RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES SSE. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THE
LONGEST IN THE FAR NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES WHERE SOME POCKETS OF -FZRA
COULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT GENERALLY ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN ARE POSSIBLE LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A BAND OF STRONG VERTICAL ASCENT PASSES
OVER THE REGION. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS COULD PRODUCE A MODESTLY
STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE AREA FOR A 3-6HR
PERIOD TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM TO AT LEAST THE MID/UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH LOW 60S POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COAST...WHILE THE PIEDMONT STRUGGLES TO RISE ABOVE THE
UPPER 40S/LOW 50S. GENERALLY EXPECTING DRIER CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME 20-30% POPS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE N AS A
SECONDARY TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. DRY AND MILD
WEDNESDAY UNDER WNW FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. A
COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL...BUT WITHIN -1 ST DEV. A MODERATING TREND COMMENCES LATE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WK SFC LO PRES WILL BE EXITING NC/SC CST THIS AFTN/EVE. BROAD AREA
OF SN TO MOVE ACRS MNLY SE VA/NE NC. PD OF MDT SN PSBL FM ABT
20-23Z/12...ESP AT ECG. ELSW...DRY LO LVL ATMOS XPD TO PREVENT
ANYTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES RIC-SBY.

TROUGH ALOFT TO PUSH ACRS THE RGN TNGT...PTNTL FOR SCT -SN...MNLY
INVOF SBY FM ABT 02-03Z TO 08-09Z/13. OTRW...STRONG CDFNT TO PUSH
ACRS THE RGN OVRNGT. GUSTY NW WNDS TO 25-35 KT TO DEVELOP LT
TNGT/EARLY SAT MRNG...CONTG THROUGH THE DAY SAT. VFR AND DRY WX
WILL PREVAIL SAT THROUGH SUN NGT. PCPN DEVELOPS MONDAY AS THE NEXT
WX SYS APPROACHES FROM THE W. PCPN BEGINS AS SNOW MON MRNG...MNLY
INLAND...BEFORE WARMER AIR WORKS IN AND CHANGES ANY SN TO RA FROM
SE TO NW DURING MON. RA CONTS INTO TUESDAY AS LO PRES TRACKS ACRS
THE AREA. DRY WX RETURNS WED.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING ENE OFF THE NC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING
ACROSS THE ERN LAKES...WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT TRAILING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY...AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SPILLING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SN...WHICH WILL
REDUCE VSBY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING (MAINLY S). AS THE LOW
LIFTS TO THE NE TONIGHT THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS IN
FROM THE NW. A NW WIND WILL AVERAGE 25-30KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF
35-40KT OVER THE OCEAN AND BAY. SEAS BUILD TO 5-8FT WITH 4-5 FT
WAVES IN THE BAY. GALE FLAGS CONTINUE FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND...WIND SPEEDS REMAIN CAPPED
AT HIGH-END SCA AT THIS TIME. FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED AS
TEMPERATURES PLUMMET SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
FORM THE SW EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND TRACKS UP THE PIEDMONT TUESDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODESTLY STRONG SSE WIND AND BUILDING
SEAS/WAVES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE
BLOW-OUT TIDES / LOW WATER ADVISORIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     NCZ012>014.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ015>017-
     030>032-102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ092-
     093-095>098-100-523>525.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ633-635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...ALB/MPR
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KRNK 122008
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
308 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS EAST OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING. A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM OVERNIGHT
RESULTING IN VERY WINDY CONDITIONS AND BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH SOME ADDED SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE FAR
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO SATURDAY. BY MONDAY
ANOTHER WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT FRIDAY...

SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE SOUTH WILL FINALLY LINK WITH THE SURFACE
COASTAL LOW IN TURN TAKING THE LAST BATCH OF SYNOPTIC SNOW SHOWERS OUT
OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING. SHOULD THEN SEE A BRIEF BREAK AFTER SUNSET
BEFORE THE TRUE UPSTREAM ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES ON INCREASING NW WINDS LATE
THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AS DEEP 5H TROFFINESS CARVES OUT ACROSS
THE EAST. THIS ALONG WITH INCREASING LAPSES...DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG
UPSLOPE WILL ALLOW FOR BANDS OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER
THE FAR WEST WITH ANOTHER 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW LIKELY ACROSS THE FAVORED
AREAS...AND FLURRIES OUT TO THE BLUE RIDGE. EXPECT DOWNSLOPE CLEARING
TO DEVELOP OUT EAST OVERNIGHT SO DRY AFTER ANY LATE DAY SNOW SHOWERS
END BY EARLY THIS EVENING.

OTRW WINDS AND COLD THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING A 50+ KNOT
85H JET PLOWING IN ON VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND 85H TEMPS FALLING TO
BELOW -20C OVERNIGHT. MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR WARNING CRITERIA WIND
SPEEDS TO BE REACHED OVER THE NW NC MOUNTAINS WITH WIDESPREAD ADVISORY
LEVELS OUT TO THE BLUE RIDGE. THEREFORE BUMPED UP WIND SPEEDS WHILE
KEEPING THIS ROLLED UP INTO THE GOING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ADDED
SNOW WEST AND WIND CHILLS OUT TO THE FOOTHILLS. SINCE MOS NOT QUITE AS
COLD AS BEFORE UNDER LOTS OF MIXING...STAYED A LITTLE ABOVE THE COLDEST
LOWS BUT STILL OVERALL SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS TO AROUND 20 WITH CHILLS AT
ADVISORY OR COLDER LEVELS IN SPOTS WEST.

ARCTIC HIGH SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE NW DURING SATURDAY ALLOWING SOME
MID/LATE AFTERNOON DROP OFF IN WINDS BUT STILL FRIGID WITH HIGHS SINGLE
DIGITS/TEENS MOUNTAINS AND 20S TO NEAR 30 FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST. LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE MOISTURE LOOKS TO SLOWLY WANE SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT
STILL ENOUGH FOR HIGH POPS DURING THE MORNING...TAPERING TO
CHANCE COVERAGE LATER IN THE DAY. CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO SLOWLY FADE
FROM EAST TO WEST AS THE VERY DRY ARCTIC AIR SPILLS IN ALLOWING
FOR MORE SUN FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST AND BECOMING PC FAR WEST
LATE. STILL APPEARS THAT WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA COULD LINGER
INTO THE AFTERNOON SO FEW CHANGES WITH GOING HEADLINES.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EST FRIDAY...

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT
THEN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP
DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO A RANGE OF 10F-
15F IN THE EAST. EVEN WITH LIGHT WINDS...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE
BELOW ZERO SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS WILL
MODERATE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY PEAKING IN THE 20S.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN TEXAS SUNDAY
NIGHT. AS THIS LOW TRACKS EAST AND DEEPENS THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL GLIDE OVER THE ARCTIC HIGH...PRODUCING
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. AS THIS LOW APPROACHES THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...A WARM NOSE WILL BEGIN TO ENTER THE AREA...POSSIBLY
CHANGING SNOW OVER TO A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET, RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON A WINTER STORM FOR THE AREA BEGINNING
MONDAY...HOWEVER P-TYPE REMAINS THE BIGGEST QUESTION.
MODELS CONTINUE TO JUMP AROUND WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW. IF THE LOW
TRACKS NORTH FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND REMAINS WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS...P-TYPE WILL CHANGE FROM SNOW TO SLEET TO RAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. IF THE TRACK IS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS...A LONGER DURATION OF SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH A CHANGE
OVER TO SLEET/RAIN OCCURRING LATER MONDAY NIGHT. DYNAMICS AND LIFT
WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE VERY IMPRESSIVE...ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA. UPWARDS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID IS LIKELY...BUT AT
WHAT P-TYPE IT FALLS AS IS ANOTHER QUESTION TO ANSWER. FOR THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE...WE WILL KEEP P-TYPE SIMPLE WITH RAIN/SNOW. WE
WILL ALSO KEEP SNOWFALL LIGHT TO MODERATE AND NOT SPECULATE ON
AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EST FRIDAY...

EARLY TUESDAY MORNING A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE CWA...WITH THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND THEN SHIFTING TO MOVE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE FURTHER
SOUTHEAST THE SYSTEM MOVES THE MORE LIKELY THE PRECIPITATION WILL
FALL AS SNOW. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME WHETHER THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL COMPLETELY AS SNOW...RAIN...OR WINTRY
RAIN MIX. THE MODELS DAYTIME SURFACE TEMPERATURES STAY WARM ENOUGH
TO FAVOR RAIN FOR MAJORITY OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY IN THE PIEDMONT.
HOWEVER...SNOW COULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS THE RIDGES STAY
COLDER AND THE LOW PRESSURE BRINGS IN A COLDER WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE.

WEDNESDAY A CLIPPER SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE CWA BRINGING AN
ADDITIONAL CHANCE FOR SNOW AND COLD TEMPERATURES. THE GFS AND EURO
ARE IN DISAGREEMENT HOW MUCH MUCH SNOW BUT MODELS TEND TO AGREE THAT
THE WESTERN SLOPES WILL SEE SOME ACCUMULATIONS. A HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS IN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL START TO
WARM UP.
&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1150 AM EST FRIDAY...

LOWER CIGS AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT SNOW BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO HEAD
EAST CROSSING THE BLUE RIDGE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT
IN PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR OVER THE WESTERN SITES AND BRIEF MVFR
ESPCLY AROUND KDAN BY MID AFTERNOON. ONCE THE WINDS TURN MORE
NORTHWEST SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE OVER THE EAST AND RETURN
TO VFR BY EARLY EVENING IF NOT SOONER.

HOWEVER FOR KBCB/KBLF/KLWB THE NWLY WINDS WILL BE UPSLOPE AND
THIS WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS AT THESE LOCATIONS WITH MVFR/IFR
CIGS/VSBYS INTO THIS EVENING AT KBCB...CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AT
KBLF/KLWB. BEHIND THE FRONT ALL SITES WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT WIND
GUSTS AS A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ALLOWS FOR EFFICIENT MOMENTUM
TRANSFER OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT G40-45KT AT KROA
WITH GUSTS AOA 35KT FOR KBCB/KBLF OVERNIGHT.

A GRADUAL RETURN TO VFR APPEARS LIKELY ON SATURDAY ALTHOUGH
KBLF/KLWB LIKELY TO KEEP MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AROUND UNTIL LATE IN
THE DAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG ON SATURDAY WITH GUSTS TO 30-40
KTS LIKELY UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN DURING THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT POOR FLYING WEATHER WILL TAKE PLACE DURING
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING WINTRY
PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT FURTHER UPDATES FROM THE
LONGER RANGE MODELS MAY IMPACT THE DETAILS ON PRECIPITATION TYPE
AND STORM TRACK. ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY
KEEP MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH MAINLY VFR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
&&

.CLIMATE...
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND. SEVERAL RECORD LOW
MAX TEMPERATURES AND LOW TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE. BELOW ARE THE
CURRENT RECORDS FOR SATURDAY 2/13 AND SUNDAY 2/14.

SATURDAY 02/13/2016
SITE   MINT YEAR  LOMAX YEAR
KBLF     4 1988     19 1988
KDAN    11 1955     32 1981
KLYH     5 1979      9 1899
KROA     8 1917     18 1914
KRNK    -4 1969     14 1955


SUNDAY 02/14/2016
SITE   MINT YEAR  LOMAX YEAR
KBLF     5 1971     16 1960
KDAN    15 1986     32 1986
KLYH     4 1899     24 1905
KROA    10 1943     26 1986
KRNK    -2 1969     24 1986

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR VAZ007-009-
     015.
NC...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NCZ001-002-018.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR WVZ042>044-507.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR WVZ042-043-
     508.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR WVZ508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/MBS
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...LC
AVIATION...JH/MBS/WP
CLIMATE...CF




000
FXUS61 KLWX 121902
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
202 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE
WILL IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A POTENT COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL PASS
THROUGH OUR AREA TONIGHT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALONG WITH FORCING FROM
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS
AND THIS EVENING FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS.
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT...BUT GIVEN THE RECENT COLD
CONDITIONS EVEN A LITTLE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL CAUSE SLIPPERY
CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED SURFACES. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS THIS
EVENING. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR LOCATIONS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG COLD
ADVECTION AND AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
CAUSE ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THIS AREA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST LATE TONIGHT WHILE ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY. STRONG COLD
ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES WILL CAUSE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE
COMBINATION OF VERY COLD AIR AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CAUSE WIND CHILL
VALUES TO DIP WELL BELOW ZERO OVER THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS AND
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. ELSEWHERE...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL DROP TO
BETWEEN -5 DEGREES AND 5 DEGREES. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AROUND AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION SUGGESTS THAT A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. COVERAGE WOULD BE
LOCALIZED...BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW MAY COAT THE GROUND
IN A FEW SPOTS OVERNIGHT. HAVE ALSO ISSUED FOR NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA. GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THE PRESSURE SURGE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TOWARD THE REGION
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE EVENTUALLY BUILDING
OVERHEAD LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. VERY COLD CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME ALONG WITH DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILLS. THE WIND CHILL HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. ADDITIONAL WIND CHILL HEADLINES
MAY BE NEEDED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY DUE TO STRONG COLD ADVECTION. ANY ACCUMULATION WOULD BE
LOCALIZED...BUT A QUICK COATING OF SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT ON SATURDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED. THE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS ON SATURDAY AS WELL. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD.

MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S NEAR WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE. MIN TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM BELOW ZERO IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.
MAX TEMPS SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
20S ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WHILE
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL CAUSE LOW PRESSURE TO
DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. DESPITE THE LOW BEING FAR AWAY
FROM THE AREA...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF WARM AND MOIST AIR
OVERRUNNING THE ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN PLENTY
OF CLOUDS ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES MONDAY WHILE THE
HIGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST. WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO OVERRUN THE COLD AIR IN PLACE...RESULTING IN MORE
SNOW. THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS UP THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MORE PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY OVER
THE AREA. HOWEVER...WARMER AIR WILL CAUSE A CHANGE OVER TO A
WINTRY MIX AND PERHAPS EVEN OVER TO ALL RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME DUE TO GUIDANCE
DIFFERING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW.

IF THE LOW IS STRONGER IT WILL LIKELY TRACK FARTHER WEST CAUSING
WARMER AIR TO MOVE IN QUICKER. THIS WOULD KEEP THE THREAT FOR
WINTRY MIX/ICE LOW. HOWEVER...IF THE LOW IS WEAKER IT WILL TRACK
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WOULD KEEP LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR
IN PLACE WHICH COULD LEAD TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WINTRY MIX/ICE.
AS OF NOW...THE FORECAST LEANS SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE LATTER SOLUTION
SINCE SCOURING OUT OF THE LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR WILL BE DIFFICULT.

BOTTOM LINE...IT IS INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE
ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH A CHANGE
OVER TO A WINTRY MIX MONDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY RAIN LATE MONDAY
NIGHT OR DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE...AND THIS WOULD IMPACT TRAVEL MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY.

THE LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA LATER TUESDAY AND
DRIER AIR MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS
OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING.
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BRIEF
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY SNOW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. GUSTS 35 TO 40 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. A
COUPLE SNOW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THIS TIME...BUT
MUCH OF THE TIME SHOULD BE DRY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND
WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THIS TIME. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH
THE TERMINALS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW WILL LIKELY
BREAK OUT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BEFORE CHANGING TO A
WINTRY MIX MONDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY RAIN TUESDAY. IFR CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY DURING THIS TIME. THE LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE AWAY FROM
THE AREA LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
POTENT COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS TONIGHT. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS. THE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE SLOWLY
DIMINISHING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE GALE WARNING CONTINUES
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS LATER SUNDAY BEFORE
MOVING OFF THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY
IMPACT THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING AWAY FROM
THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CAUSE TIDAL ANOMALIES TO BE AROUND 2
FEET BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EST
     TONIGHT FOR DCZ001.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR MDZ502.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EST
     TONIGHT FOR MDZ004>006-011-013-014-016-503>508.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ003>006-
     011-013-014-016>018-503>508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ501.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR MDZ501.
VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR VAZ504-507-508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EST
     TONIGHT FOR VAZ052>056-501-502-505-506.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR VAZ028-031-
     052>054-505-506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR VAZ503.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR VAZ503.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR WVZ050-055-502-504-506.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR WVZ051>053.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR WVZ501-503-
     505.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR WVZ501-503-505.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ530>543.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...BJL/KLW
MARINE...BJL/KLW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 121852
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
152 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
MORNING...LIFTING NORTHEAST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA
COASTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS YEAR. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ONLY A FEW ADJUSTMENTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE RADAR RETURNS
ARE MATCHING UP WELL WITH CURRENT FORECAST. THE EXCEPTION IS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WHERE TRENDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SNOW WILL
HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME PUSHING NWD INTO RICHMOND AND LOCATIONS
NORTH AND WEST. A DUSTING IS STILL POSSIBLE...BUT ADDITIONAL
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL WILL BE DIFFICULT. ANOTHER CHANGE IS TO
INCREASE ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE ERN SHORE TONIGHT AS THE ARCTIC
FRONT PUSHES THRU. AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS NOW EXPECTED OVER
THE MD ERN SHORE...REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ATTM. ALSO
NUDGED DAYTIME TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGS.

PREV DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALONG A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY JUST OFF THE SC COAST THIS MORNING. RADAR
RETURNS DEPICTING CONVECTION AROUND THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE LOW.
RADAR RETURNS OVER THE LOCAL AREA ARE ELEVATED AND NOT REACHING THE
GROUND AS THE SUB CLOUD LAYER REMAINS QUITE DRY THANKS TO HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...THE LATEST RETURNS
ARE ALREADY INDICATING WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND WILL LIKELY SET
UP...ACROSS SE VA/NE NC. ALOFT...LATEST GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
RAOB PLOTS DEPICT SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE MID MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY.
THIS SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES THRU THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH HEIGHT FALLS FURTHER DEEPENING THE SFC LOW OFF THE SC
COAST. THIS WILL LIKELY PUSH THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND SWWD
SLIGHTLY...WITH THE ADDED DYNAMICS DEEPENING THE MOISTURE FIELDS.
THIS IS HANDLED WELL IN THE BUFR SOUNDINGS AND ISENTROPIC FIELDS.
EXPECT SNOW TO BEGIN FALLING BY LATE MORNING TO AROUND NOON ACROSS
NE NC/EXTREME SE VA...SPREADING NWD THRU EARLY AFTERNOON. STILL
REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF MODEL/ENSEMBLE SPREAD WITH REGARDS TO
QPF...WHICH WILL OF COURSE HAVE IMPACTS ON TOTAL SNOWFALL. TAKING A
BLEND OF THE FAVORED SHORT TERM GUIDANCE STILL YIELDS A QPF FORECAST
SIMILAR TO 24 HOURS AGO. THUS THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OF 10-15:1
SNOWFALL IS STILL FAVORED OVER NE NC AROUND THE ALBEMARLE SOUND.
AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES ARE STILL EXPECTED...WITH SOME BANDING
EXPECTED AS NAM12 DEPICTS BEST FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS THAT REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LOCALIZED 5 INCH
AMOUNTS. AMOUNTS TAPER OFF TO 1 TO 3 INCHES INTO HAMPTON ROADS AND
TOWARDS SOUTHAMPTON AND ISLE OF WIGHT COUNTIES. BASED ON
AFOREMENTIONED QPF DISCREPANCIES...THERE STILL REMAINS A QUESTION OF
HOW FAR NORTH LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE
AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND LIFTS ALONG THE COAST EARLY AFTERNOON.
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AS BETTER FORCING ARRIVES
OVER CENTRAL VA. MOISTURE IS NOT AS DEEP INTO CENTRAL VA...BUT
THERMAL PROFILES/CROSS SECTIONS STILL INDICATE HIGH RH/ICE IN THE
SNOW GROWTH ZONE WITH PLENTY OF OMEGA. BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER LEVELS...STILL THINKING THIS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR LIGHT SNOW
INTO THE TRI-CITIES AND RICHMOND AREA. HOWEVER...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
WILL TAPER OFF TO LESS THAN HALF AN INCH TOWARDS RICHMOND DUE TO
SHORT DURATION. COLD SURFACE/ROADWAYS WILL ALLOW ANY SNOW THAT FALLS
TO ACCUMULATE ON THE ROADWAYS...SO DRIVING WILL STILL BE IMPACTED.
FARTHER NORTHWEST OF RICHMOND COULD SEE JUST A DUSTING.

TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM INTO THE MID 30S TODAY THANKS TO
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP.

SNOW COMES TO AN END THIS EVENG/EARLY TNGT...AS THE SFC LO PUSHES
WELL ENE OF THE MID-ATLC CST AND THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY PUSHES THRU THE
REGION. CLEARING SW TO NE LATE TONIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW/ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE POLAR VORTEX DIGS
OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. ~1040MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE MIDWEST...USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WINDY SAT WITH NW WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO
25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH (STRONGER NEAR THE COAST AND
OVER THE EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS SAT FORECAST TO WARM ONLY INTO THE
MID 20S NW TO LOW 30S SE (-2 STD DEV) UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE IN THE TEENS...RESULTING IN A
RAW/COLD/WINDY DAY. TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS SAT NIGHT. WINDS DECOUPLE INLAND AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...BUT WIND CHILLS STILL FORECAST IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
INLAND TO 0 TO 8 BELOW NRN NECK TO THE ERN SHORE. THE HIGH CENTERS
OVER THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY WITH NLY WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. SLIGHTLY
COLDER SUN WITH DECREASED MIXING. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER
20S (-2 STD DEV) UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ATTENTION
TURNING TO A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. THERE
REMAINS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS...ALTHOUGH
THE 11/12Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING SLOWER...AND WARMER FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. THE 11/12Z GFS CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT PCPN MONDAY AS A NRN STREAM TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WOULD MAINLY FALL AS SN OR SN/IP...WITH A TRANSITION TO
RA CLOSER TO THE COAST BY AFTERNOON. SUBSTANTIAL WARMING ALOFT WOULD
GENERALLY RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO RA MONDAY NIGHT...ASIDE FROM THE
FAR NW WHERE MIXED PCPN COULD PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH AN
IN-SITU WEDGE IN PLACE. THE LATEST DATA SCOURS OUT THE WEDGE BY
AFTERNOON WITH P-TYPE BECOMING RA EVEN IN THE FAR NW. DRYING OCCURS
MIDWEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE
CLIPPING THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
OF COOLER AIR AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS MONDAY WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOW 30S ALONG
AND W OF I-95...WHILE COASTAL LOCATIONS WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOW 40S. TEMPERATURES REMAIN STEADY MONDAY EVENING AND BEGIN TO RISE
OVERNIGHT EVENTUALLY WARMING INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S...FOLLOWED BY
LOW 40S NE...TO UPPER 40S SW THURSDAY. MORNING LOWS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WK SFC LO PRES WILL BE EXITING NC/SC CST THIS AFTN/EVE. BROAD AREA
OF SN TO MOVE ACRS MNLY SE VA/NE NC. PD OF MDT SN PSBL FM ABT
20-23Z/12...ESP AT ECG. ELSW...DRY LO LVL ATMOS XPD TO PREVENT
ANYTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES RIC-SBY.

TROUGH ALOFT TO PUSH ACRS THE RGN TNGT...PTNTL FOR SCT -SN...MNLY
INVOF SBY FM ABT 02-03Z TO 08-09Z/13. OTRW...STRONG CDFNT TO PUSH
ACRS THE RGN OVRNGT. GUSTY NW WNDS TO 25-35 KT TO DEVELOP LT
TNGT/EARLY SAT MRNG...CONTG THROUGH THE DAY SAT. VFR AND DRY WX
WILL PREVAIL SAT THROUGH SUN NGT. PCPN DEVELOPS MONDAY AS THE NEXT
WX SYS APPROACHES FROM THE W. PCPN BEGINS AS SNOW MON MRNG...MNLY
INLAND...BEFORE WARMER AIR WORKS IN AND CHANGES ANY SN TO RA FROM
SE TO NW DURING MON. RA CONTS INTO TUESDAY AS LO PRES TRACKS ACRS
THE AREA. DRY WX RETURNS WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES TODAY AS THE MARINE AREA WINDS WILL GNRLY BE AOB 15KTS
AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRS PROGGED TO MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THIS LOW WILL NOT BRING ANY WIND RELATED MARINE
HEADLINES...THE ASSCTD PCPN WILL BRING REDUCED VSBYS IN SNOW/SLEET
OF VARYING INTENSITIES LATE THIS AFTRN AND EVE.

AS THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. A NW WIND WILL AVERAGE 25-30KT
WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35-40KT OVER THE OCEAN AND BAY. SEAS BUILD TO
5-8FT WITH 4-5 FT WAVES IN THE BAY. GALE FLAGS HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR
LATE TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND...WIND
SPEEDS HAVE BEEN CAPPED AT HIGH-END SCA AT THIS TIME.

EXPANDED THE FREEZING SPRAY WINDOW TO INCLUDE SAT...SAT NITE AND SUN
MORN GIVEN FCSTD WND SPEEDS / GUSTS COMBINED WITH AIR TMPS BELOW 30
DEGREES. LIMITED THE FREEZING SPRAY TO THE MORE OPEN CHES BAY AND
CSTL WATER AREAS. PER COORD WITH PHL...HOISTED FREEZING SPRAY ADVSRY
FOR THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL. THIS MEANS LIGHT TO MDT ACCUMULATION OF
ICE CAN BE EXPECTED ON VESSELS.

THE WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES
ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FORM THE SW EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE
BLOW-OUT TIDES / LOW WATER ADVISORIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     NCZ012>014.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ015>017-
     030>032-102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ092-
     093-095>098-100-523>525.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ633-635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM/TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...ALB/MPR
MARINE...MPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 121852
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
152 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
MORNING...LIFTING NORTHEAST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA
COASTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS YEAR. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ONLY A FEW ADJUSTMENTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE RADAR RETURNS
ARE MATCHING UP WELL WITH CURRENT FORECAST. THE EXCEPTION IS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WHERE TRENDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SNOW WILL
HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME PUSHING NWD INTO RICHMOND AND LOCATIONS
NORTH AND WEST. A DUSTING IS STILL POSSIBLE...BUT ADDITIONAL
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL WILL BE DIFFICULT. ANOTHER CHANGE IS TO
INCREASE ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE ERN SHORE TONIGHT AS THE ARCTIC
FRONT PUSHES THRU. AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS NOW EXPECTED OVER
THE MD ERN SHORE...REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ATTM. ALSO
NUDGED DAYTIME TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGS.

PREV DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALONG A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY JUST OFF THE SC COAST THIS MORNING. RADAR
RETURNS DEPICTING CONVECTION AROUND THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE LOW.
RADAR RETURNS OVER THE LOCAL AREA ARE ELEVATED AND NOT REACHING THE
GROUND AS THE SUB CLOUD LAYER REMAINS QUITE DRY THANKS TO HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...THE LATEST RETURNS
ARE ALREADY INDICATING WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND WILL LIKELY SET
UP...ACROSS SE VA/NE NC. ALOFT...LATEST GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
RAOB PLOTS DEPICT SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE MID MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY.
THIS SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES THRU THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH HEIGHT FALLS FURTHER DEEPENING THE SFC LOW OFF THE SC
COAST. THIS WILL LIKELY PUSH THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND SWWD
SLIGHTLY...WITH THE ADDED DYNAMICS DEEPENING THE MOISTURE FIELDS.
THIS IS HANDLED WELL IN THE BUFR SOUNDINGS AND ISENTROPIC FIELDS.
EXPECT SNOW TO BEGIN FALLING BY LATE MORNING TO AROUND NOON ACROSS
NE NC/EXTREME SE VA...SPREADING NWD THRU EARLY AFTERNOON. STILL
REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF MODEL/ENSEMBLE SPREAD WITH REGARDS TO
QPF...WHICH WILL OF COURSE HAVE IMPACTS ON TOTAL SNOWFALL. TAKING A
BLEND OF THE FAVORED SHORT TERM GUIDANCE STILL YIELDS A QPF FORECAST
SIMILAR TO 24 HOURS AGO. THUS THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OF 10-15:1
SNOWFALL IS STILL FAVORED OVER NE NC AROUND THE ALBEMARLE SOUND.
AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES ARE STILL EXPECTED...WITH SOME BANDING
EXPECTED AS NAM12 DEPICTS BEST FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS THAT REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LOCALIZED 5 INCH
AMOUNTS. AMOUNTS TAPER OFF TO 1 TO 3 INCHES INTO HAMPTON ROADS AND
TOWARDS SOUTHAMPTON AND ISLE OF WIGHT COUNTIES. BASED ON
AFOREMENTIONED QPF DISCREPANCIES...THERE STILL REMAINS A QUESTION OF
HOW FAR NORTH LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE
AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND LIFTS ALONG THE COAST EARLY AFTERNOON.
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AS BETTER FORCING ARRIVES
OVER CENTRAL VA. MOISTURE IS NOT AS DEEP INTO CENTRAL VA...BUT
THERMAL PROFILES/CROSS SECTIONS STILL INDICATE HIGH RH/ICE IN THE
SNOW GROWTH ZONE WITH PLENTY OF OMEGA. BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER LEVELS...STILL THINKING THIS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR LIGHT SNOW
INTO THE TRI-CITIES AND RICHMOND AREA. HOWEVER...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
WILL TAPER OFF TO LESS THAN HALF AN INCH TOWARDS RICHMOND DUE TO
SHORT DURATION. COLD SURFACE/ROADWAYS WILL ALLOW ANY SNOW THAT FALLS
TO ACCUMULATE ON THE ROADWAYS...SO DRIVING WILL STILL BE IMPACTED.
FARTHER NORTHWEST OF RICHMOND COULD SEE JUST A DUSTING.

TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM INTO THE MID 30S TODAY THANKS TO
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP.

SNOW COMES TO AN END THIS EVENG/EARLY TNGT...AS THE SFC LO PUSHES
WELL ENE OF THE MID-ATLC CST AND THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY PUSHES THRU THE
REGION. CLEARING SW TO NE LATE TONIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW/ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE POLAR VORTEX DIGS
OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. ~1040MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE MIDWEST...USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WINDY SAT WITH NW WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO
25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH (STRONGER NEAR THE COAST AND
OVER THE EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS SAT FORECAST TO WARM ONLY INTO THE
MID 20S NW TO LOW 30S SE (-2 STD DEV) UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE IN THE TEENS...RESULTING IN A
RAW/COLD/WINDY DAY. TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS SAT NIGHT. WINDS DECOUPLE INLAND AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...BUT WIND CHILLS STILL FORECAST IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
INLAND TO 0 TO 8 BELOW NRN NECK TO THE ERN SHORE. THE HIGH CENTERS
OVER THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY WITH NLY WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. SLIGHTLY
COLDER SUN WITH DECREASED MIXING. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER
20S (-2 STD DEV) UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ATTENTION
TURNING TO A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. THERE
REMAINS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS...ALTHOUGH
THE 11/12Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING SLOWER...AND WARMER FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. THE 11/12Z GFS CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT PCPN MONDAY AS A NRN STREAM TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WOULD MAINLY FALL AS SN OR SN/IP...WITH A TRANSITION TO
RA CLOSER TO THE COAST BY AFTERNOON. SUBSTANTIAL WARMING ALOFT WOULD
GENERALLY RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO RA MONDAY NIGHT...ASIDE FROM THE
FAR NW WHERE MIXED PCPN COULD PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH AN
IN-SITU WEDGE IN PLACE. THE LATEST DATA SCOURS OUT THE WEDGE BY
AFTERNOON WITH P-TYPE BECOMING RA EVEN IN THE FAR NW. DRYING OCCURS
MIDWEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE
CLIPPING THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
OF COOLER AIR AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS MONDAY WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOW 30S ALONG
AND W OF I-95...WHILE COASTAL LOCATIONS WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOW 40S. TEMPERATURES REMAIN STEADY MONDAY EVENING AND BEGIN TO RISE
OVERNIGHT EVENTUALLY WARMING INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S...FOLLOWED BY
LOW 40S NE...TO UPPER 40S SW THURSDAY. MORNING LOWS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WK SFC LO PRES WILL BE EXITING NC/SC CST THIS AFTN/EVE. BROAD AREA
OF SN TO MOVE ACRS MNLY SE VA/NE NC. PD OF MDT SN PSBL FM ABT
20-23Z/12...ESP AT ECG. ELSW...DRY LO LVL ATMOS XPD TO PREVENT
ANYTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES RIC-SBY.

TROUGH ALOFT TO PUSH ACRS THE RGN TNGT...PTNTL FOR SCT -SN...MNLY
INVOF SBY FM ABT 02-03Z TO 08-09Z/13. OTRW...STRONG CDFNT TO PUSH
ACRS THE RGN OVRNGT. GUSTY NW WNDS TO 25-35 KT TO DEVELOP LT
TNGT/EARLY SAT MRNG...CONTG THROUGH THE DAY SAT. VFR AND DRY WX
WILL PREVAIL SAT THROUGH SUN NGT. PCPN DEVELOPS MONDAY AS THE NEXT
WX SYS APPROACHES FROM THE W. PCPN BEGINS AS SNOW MON MRNG...MNLY
INLAND...BEFORE WARMER AIR WORKS IN AND CHANGES ANY SN TO RA FROM
SE TO NW DURING MON. RA CONTS INTO TUESDAY AS LO PRES TRACKS ACRS
THE AREA. DRY WX RETURNS WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES TODAY AS THE MARINE AREA WINDS WILL GNRLY BE AOB 15KTS
AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRS PROGGED TO MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THIS LOW WILL NOT BRING ANY WIND RELATED MARINE
HEADLINES...THE ASSCTD PCPN WILL BRING REDUCED VSBYS IN SNOW/SLEET
OF VARYING INTENSITIES LATE THIS AFTRN AND EVE.

AS THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. A NW WIND WILL AVERAGE 25-30KT
WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35-40KT OVER THE OCEAN AND BAY. SEAS BUILD TO
5-8FT WITH 4-5 FT WAVES IN THE BAY. GALE FLAGS HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR
LATE TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND...WIND
SPEEDS HAVE BEEN CAPPED AT HIGH-END SCA AT THIS TIME.

EXPANDED THE FREEZING SPRAY WINDOW TO INCLUDE SAT...SAT NITE AND SUN
MORN GIVEN FCSTD WND SPEEDS / GUSTS COMBINED WITH AIR TMPS BELOW 30
DEGREES. LIMITED THE FREEZING SPRAY TO THE MORE OPEN CHES BAY AND
CSTL WATER AREAS. PER COORD WITH PHL...HOISTED FREEZING SPRAY ADVSRY
FOR THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL. THIS MEANS LIGHT TO MDT ACCUMULATION OF
ICE CAN BE EXPECTED ON VESSELS.

THE WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES
ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FORM THE SW EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE
BLOW-OUT TIDES / LOW WATER ADVISORIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     NCZ012>014.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ015>017-
     030>032-102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ092-
     093-095>098-100-523>525.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ633-635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM/TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...ALB/MPR
MARINE...MPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 121756
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1256 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
MORNING...LIFTING NORTHEAST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA
COASTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS YEAR. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALONG A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY JUST OFF THE SC COAST THIS MORNING. RADAR
RETURNS DEPICTING CONVECTION AROUND THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE LOW.
RADAR RETURNS OVER THE LOCAL AREA ARE ELEVATED AND NOT REACHING THE
GROUND AS THE SUB CLOUD LAYER REMAINS QUITE DRY THANKS TO HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...THE LATEST RETURNS
ARE ALREADY INDICATING WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND WILL LIKELY SET
UP...ACROSS SE VA/NE NC. ALOFT...LATEST GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
RAOB PLOTS DEPICT SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE MID MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY.
THIS SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES THRU THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH HEIGHT FALLS FURTHER DEEPENING THE SFC LOW OFF THE SC
COAST. THIS WILL LIKELY PUSH THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND SWWD
SLIGHTLY...WITH THE ADDED DYNAMICS DEEPENING THE MOISTURE FIELDS.
THIS IS HANDLED WELL IN THE BUFR SOUNDINGS AND ISENTROPIC FIELDS.
EXPECT SNOW TO BEGIN FALLING BY LATE MORNING TO AROUND NOON ACROSS
NE NC/EXTREME SE VA...SPREADING NWD THRU EARLY AFTERNOON. STILL
REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF MODEL/ENSEMBLE SPREAD WITH REGARDS TO
QPF...WHICH WILL OF COURSE HAVE IMPACTS ON TOTAL SNOWFALL. TAKING A
BLEND OF THE FAVORED SHORT TERM GUIDANCE STILL YIELDS A QPF FORECAST
SIMILAR TO 24 HOURS AGO. THUS THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OF 10-15:1
SNOWFALL IS STILL FAVORED OVER NE NC AROUND THE ALBEMARLE SOUND.
AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES ARE STILL EXPECTED...WITH SOME BANDING
EXPECTED AS NAM12 DEPICTS BEST FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS THAT REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LOCALIZED 5 INCH
AMOUNTS. AMOUNTS TAPER OFF TO 1 TO 3 INCHES INTO HAMPTON ROADS AND
TOWARDS SOUTHAMPTON AND ISLE OF WIGHT COUNTIES. BASED ON
AFOREMENTIONED QPF DISCREPANCIES...THERE STILL REMAINS A QUESTION OF
HOW FAR NORTH LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE
AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND LIFTS ALONG THE COAST EARLY AFTERNOON.
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AS BETTER FORCING ARRIVES
OVER CENTRAL VA. MOISTURE IS NOT AS DEEP INTO CENTRAL VA...BUT
THERMAL PROFILES/CROSS SECTIONS STILL INDICATE HIGH RH/ICE IN THE
SNOW GROWTH ZONE WITH PLENTY OF OMEGA. BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER LEVELS...STILL THINKING THIS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR LIGHT SNOW
INTO THE TRI-CITIES AND RICHMOND AREA. HOWEVER...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
WILL TAPER OFF TO LESS THAN HALF AN INCH TOWARDS RICHMOND DUE TO
SHORT DURATION. COLD SURFACE/ROADWAYS WILL ALLOW ANY SNOW THAT FALLS
TO ACCUMULATE ON THE ROADWAYS...SO DRIVING WILL STILL BE IMPACTED.
FARTHER NORTHWEST OF RICHMOND COULD SEE JUST A DUSTING.

TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM INTO THE MID 30S TODAY THANKS TO
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP.

SNOW COMES TO AN END THIS EVENG/EARLY TNGT...AS THE SFC LO PUSHES
WELL ENE OF THE MID-ATLC CST AND THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY PUSHES THRU THE
REGION. CLEARING SW TO NE LATE TONIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW/ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE POLAR VORTEX DIGS
OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. ~1040MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE MIDWEST...USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WINDY SAT WITH NW WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO
25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH (STRONGER NEAR THE COAST AND
OVER THE EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS SAT FORECAST TO WARM ONLY INTO THE
MID 20S NW TO LOW 30S SE (-2 STD DEV) UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE IN THE TEENS...RESULTING IN A
RAW/COLD/WINDY DAY. TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS SAT NIGHT. WINDS DECOUPLE INLAND AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...BUT WIND CHILLS STILL FORECAST IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
INLAND TO 0 TO 8 BELOW NRN NECK TO THE ERN SHORE. THE HIGH CENTERS
OVER THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY WITH NLY WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. SLIGHTLY
COLDER SUN WITH DECREASED MIXING. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER
20S (-2 STD DEV) UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ATTENTION
TURNING TO A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. THERE
REMAINS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS...ALTHOUGH
THE 11/12Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING SLOWER...AND WARMER FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. THE 11/12Z GFS CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT PCPN MONDAY AS A NRN STREAM TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WOULD MAINLY FALL AS SN OR SN/IP...WITH A TRANSITION TO
RA CLOSER TO THE COAST BY AFTERNOON. SUBSTANTIAL WARMING ALOFT WOULD
GENERALLY RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO RA MONDAY NIGHT...ASIDE FROM THE
FAR NW WHERE MIXED PCPN COULD PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH AN
IN-SITU WEDGE IN PLACE. THE LATEST DATA SCOURS OUT THE WEDGE BY
AFTERNOON WITH P-TYPE BECOMING RA EVEN IN THE FAR NW. DRYING OCCURS
MIDWEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE
CLIPPING THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
OF COOLER AIR AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS MONDAY WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOW 30S ALONG
AND W OF I-95...WHILE COASTAL LOCATIONS WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOW 40S. TEMPERATURES REMAIN STEADY MONDAY EVENING AND BEGIN TO RISE
OVERNIGHT EVENTUALLY WARMING INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S...FOLLOWED BY
LOW 40S NE...TO UPPER 40S SW THURSDAY. MORNING LOWS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WK SFC LO PRES WILL BE EXITING NC/SC CST THIS AFTN/EVE. BROAD AREA
OF SN TO MOVE ACRS MNLY SE VA/NE NC. PD OF MDT SN PSBL FM ABT
20-23Z/12...ESP AT ECG. ELSW...DRY LO LVL ATMOS XPD TO PREVENT
ANYTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES RIC-SBY.

TROUGH ALOFT TO PUSH ACRS THE RGN TNGT...PTNTL FOR SCT -SN...MNLY
INVOF SBY FM ABT 02-03Z TO 08-09Z/13. OTRW...STRONG CDFNT TO PUSH
ACRS THE RGN OVRNGT. GUSTY NW WNDS TO 25-35 KT TO DEVELOP LT
TNGT/EARLY SAT MRNG...CONTG THROUGH THE DAY SAT. VFR AND DRY WX
WILL PREVAIL SAT THROUGH SUN NGT. PCPN DEVELOPS MONDAY AS THE NEXT
WX SYS APPROACHES FROM THE W. PCPN BEGINS AS SNOW MON MRNG...MNLY
INLAND...BEFORE WARMER AIR WORKS IN AND CHANGES ANY SN TO RA FROM
SE TO NW DURING MON. RA CONTS INTO TUESDAY AS LO PRES TRACKS ACRS
THE AREA. DRY WX RETURNS WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES TODAY AS THE MARINE AREA WINDS WILL GNRLY BE AOB 15KTS
AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRS PROGGED TO MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THIS LOW WILL NOT BRING ANY WIND RELATED MARINE
HEADLINES...THE ASSCTD PCPN WILL BRING REDUCED VSBYS IN SNOW/SLEET
OF VARYING INTENSITIES LATE THIS AFTRN AND EVE.

AS THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. A NW WIND WILL AVERAGE 25-30KT
WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35-40KT OVER THE OCEAN AND BAY. SEAS BUILD TO
5-8FT WITH 4-5 FT WAVES IN THE BAY. GALE FLAGS HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR
LATE TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND...WIND
SPEEDS HAVE BEEN CAPPED AT HIGH-END SCA AT THIS TIME.

EXPANDED THE FREEZING SPRAY WINDOW TO INCLUDE SAT...SAT NITE AND SUN
MORN GIVEN FCSTD WND SPEEDS / GUSTS COMBINED WITH AIR TMPS BELOW 30
DEGREES. LIMITED THE FREEZING SPRAY TO THE MORE OPEN CHES BAY AND
CSTL WATER AREAS. PER COORD WITH PHL...HOISTED FREEZING SPRAY ADVSRY
FOR THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL. THIS MEANS LIGHT TO MDT ACCUMULATION OF
ICE CAN BE EXPECTED ON VESSELS.

THE WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES
ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FORM THE SW EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE
BLOW-OUT TIDES / LOW WATER ADVISORIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     NCZ012>014.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ015>017-
     030>032-102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ092-
     093-095>098-100-523>525.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ633-635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM/TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...ALB/MPR
MARINE...MPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 121756
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1256 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
MORNING...LIFTING NORTHEAST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA
COASTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS YEAR. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALONG A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY JUST OFF THE SC COAST THIS MORNING. RADAR
RETURNS DEPICTING CONVECTION AROUND THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE LOW.
RADAR RETURNS OVER THE LOCAL AREA ARE ELEVATED AND NOT REACHING THE
GROUND AS THE SUB CLOUD LAYER REMAINS QUITE DRY THANKS TO HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...THE LATEST RETURNS
ARE ALREADY INDICATING WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND WILL LIKELY SET
UP...ACROSS SE VA/NE NC. ALOFT...LATEST GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
RAOB PLOTS DEPICT SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE MID MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY.
THIS SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES THRU THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH HEIGHT FALLS FURTHER DEEPENING THE SFC LOW OFF THE SC
COAST. THIS WILL LIKELY PUSH THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND SWWD
SLIGHTLY...WITH THE ADDED DYNAMICS DEEPENING THE MOISTURE FIELDS.
THIS IS HANDLED WELL IN THE BUFR SOUNDINGS AND ISENTROPIC FIELDS.
EXPECT SNOW TO BEGIN FALLING BY LATE MORNING TO AROUND NOON ACROSS
NE NC/EXTREME SE VA...SPREADING NWD THRU EARLY AFTERNOON. STILL
REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF MODEL/ENSEMBLE SPREAD WITH REGARDS TO
QPF...WHICH WILL OF COURSE HAVE IMPACTS ON TOTAL SNOWFALL. TAKING A
BLEND OF THE FAVORED SHORT TERM GUIDANCE STILL YIELDS A QPF FORECAST
SIMILAR TO 24 HOURS AGO. THUS THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OF 10-15:1
SNOWFALL IS STILL FAVORED OVER NE NC AROUND THE ALBEMARLE SOUND.
AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES ARE STILL EXPECTED...WITH SOME BANDING
EXPECTED AS NAM12 DEPICTS BEST FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS THAT REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LOCALIZED 5 INCH
AMOUNTS. AMOUNTS TAPER OFF TO 1 TO 3 INCHES INTO HAMPTON ROADS AND
TOWARDS SOUTHAMPTON AND ISLE OF WIGHT COUNTIES. BASED ON
AFOREMENTIONED QPF DISCREPANCIES...THERE STILL REMAINS A QUESTION OF
HOW FAR NORTH LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE
AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND LIFTS ALONG THE COAST EARLY AFTERNOON.
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AS BETTER FORCING ARRIVES
OVER CENTRAL VA. MOISTURE IS NOT AS DEEP INTO CENTRAL VA...BUT
THERMAL PROFILES/CROSS SECTIONS STILL INDICATE HIGH RH/ICE IN THE
SNOW GROWTH ZONE WITH PLENTY OF OMEGA. BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER LEVELS...STILL THINKING THIS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR LIGHT SNOW
INTO THE TRI-CITIES AND RICHMOND AREA. HOWEVER...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
WILL TAPER OFF TO LESS THAN HALF AN INCH TOWARDS RICHMOND DUE TO
SHORT DURATION. COLD SURFACE/ROADWAYS WILL ALLOW ANY SNOW THAT FALLS
TO ACCUMULATE ON THE ROADWAYS...SO DRIVING WILL STILL BE IMPACTED.
FARTHER NORTHWEST OF RICHMOND COULD SEE JUST A DUSTING.

TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM INTO THE MID 30S TODAY THANKS TO
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP.

SNOW COMES TO AN END THIS EVENG/EARLY TNGT...AS THE SFC LO PUSHES
WELL ENE OF THE MID-ATLC CST AND THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY PUSHES THRU THE
REGION. CLEARING SW TO NE LATE TONIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW/ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE POLAR VORTEX DIGS
OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. ~1040MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE MIDWEST...USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WINDY SAT WITH NW WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO
25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH (STRONGER NEAR THE COAST AND
OVER THE EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS SAT FORECAST TO WARM ONLY INTO THE
MID 20S NW TO LOW 30S SE (-2 STD DEV) UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE IN THE TEENS...RESULTING IN A
RAW/COLD/WINDY DAY. TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS SAT NIGHT. WINDS DECOUPLE INLAND AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...BUT WIND CHILLS STILL FORECAST IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
INLAND TO 0 TO 8 BELOW NRN NECK TO THE ERN SHORE. THE HIGH CENTERS
OVER THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY WITH NLY WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. SLIGHTLY
COLDER SUN WITH DECREASED MIXING. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER
20S (-2 STD DEV) UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ATTENTION
TURNING TO A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. THERE
REMAINS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS...ALTHOUGH
THE 11/12Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING SLOWER...AND WARMER FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. THE 11/12Z GFS CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT PCPN MONDAY AS A NRN STREAM TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WOULD MAINLY FALL AS SN OR SN/IP...WITH A TRANSITION TO
RA CLOSER TO THE COAST BY AFTERNOON. SUBSTANTIAL WARMING ALOFT WOULD
GENERALLY RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO RA MONDAY NIGHT...ASIDE FROM THE
FAR NW WHERE MIXED PCPN COULD PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH AN
IN-SITU WEDGE IN PLACE. THE LATEST DATA SCOURS OUT THE WEDGE BY
AFTERNOON WITH P-TYPE BECOMING RA EVEN IN THE FAR NW. DRYING OCCURS
MIDWEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE
CLIPPING THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
OF COOLER AIR AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS MONDAY WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOW 30S ALONG
AND W OF I-95...WHILE COASTAL LOCATIONS WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOW 40S. TEMPERATURES REMAIN STEADY MONDAY EVENING AND BEGIN TO RISE
OVERNIGHT EVENTUALLY WARMING INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S...FOLLOWED BY
LOW 40S NE...TO UPPER 40S SW THURSDAY. MORNING LOWS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WK SFC LO PRES WILL BE EXITING NC/SC CST THIS AFTN/EVE. BROAD AREA
OF SN TO MOVE ACRS MNLY SE VA/NE NC. PD OF MDT SN PSBL FM ABT
20-23Z/12...ESP AT ECG. ELSW...DRY LO LVL ATMOS XPD TO PREVENT
ANYTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES RIC-SBY.

TROUGH ALOFT TO PUSH ACRS THE RGN TNGT...PTNTL FOR SCT -SN...MNLY
INVOF SBY FM ABT 02-03Z TO 08-09Z/13. OTRW...STRONG CDFNT TO PUSH
ACRS THE RGN OVRNGT. GUSTY NW WNDS TO 25-35 KT TO DEVELOP LT
TNGT/EARLY SAT MRNG...CONTG THROUGH THE DAY SAT. VFR AND DRY WX
WILL PREVAIL SAT THROUGH SUN NGT. PCPN DEVELOPS MONDAY AS THE NEXT
WX SYS APPROACHES FROM THE W. PCPN BEGINS AS SNOW MON MRNG...MNLY
INLAND...BEFORE WARMER AIR WORKS IN AND CHANGES ANY SN TO RA FROM
SE TO NW DURING MON. RA CONTS INTO TUESDAY AS LO PRES TRACKS ACRS
THE AREA. DRY WX RETURNS WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES TODAY AS THE MARINE AREA WINDS WILL GNRLY BE AOB 15KTS
AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRS PROGGED TO MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THIS LOW WILL NOT BRING ANY WIND RELATED MARINE
HEADLINES...THE ASSCTD PCPN WILL BRING REDUCED VSBYS IN SNOW/SLEET
OF VARYING INTENSITIES LATE THIS AFTRN AND EVE.

AS THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. A NW WIND WILL AVERAGE 25-30KT
WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35-40KT OVER THE OCEAN AND BAY. SEAS BUILD TO
5-8FT WITH 4-5 FT WAVES IN THE BAY. GALE FLAGS HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR
LATE TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND...WIND
SPEEDS HAVE BEEN CAPPED AT HIGH-END SCA AT THIS TIME.

EXPANDED THE FREEZING SPRAY WINDOW TO INCLUDE SAT...SAT NITE AND SUN
MORN GIVEN FCSTD WND SPEEDS / GUSTS COMBINED WITH AIR TMPS BELOW 30
DEGREES. LIMITED THE FREEZING SPRAY TO THE MORE OPEN CHES BAY AND
CSTL WATER AREAS. PER COORD WITH PHL...HOISTED FREEZING SPRAY ADVSRY
FOR THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL. THIS MEANS LIGHT TO MDT ACCUMULATION OF
ICE CAN BE EXPECTED ON VESSELS.

THE WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES
ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FORM THE SW EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE
BLOW-OUT TIDES / LOW WATER ADVISORIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     NCZ012>014.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ015>017-
     030>032-102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ092-
     093-095>098-100-523>525.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ633-635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM/TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...ALB/MPR
MARINE...MPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 121756
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1256 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
MORNING...LIFTING NORTHEAST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA
COASTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS YEAR. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALONG A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY JUST OFF THE SC COAST THIS MORNING. RADAR
RETURNS DEPICTING CONVECTION AROUND THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE LOW.
RADAR RETURNS OVER THE LOCAL AREA ARE ELEVATED AND NOT REACHING THE
GROUND AS THE SUB CLOUD LAYER REMAINS QUITE DRY THANKS TO HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...THE LATEST RETURNS
ARE ALREADY INDICATING WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND WILL LIKELY SET
UP...ACROSS SE VA/NE NC. ALOFT...LATEST GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
RAOB PLOTS DEPICT SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE MID MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY.
THIS SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES THRU THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH HEIGHT FALLS FURTHER DEEPENING THE SFC LOW OFF THE SC
COAST. THIS WILL LIKELY PUSH THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND SWWD
SLIGHTLY...WITH THE ADDED DYNAMICS DEEPENING THE MOISTURE FIELDS.
THIS IS HANDLED WELL IN THE BUFR SOUNDINGS AND ISENTROPIC FIELDS.
EXPECT SNOW TO BEGIN FALLING BY LATE MORNING TO AROUND NOON ACROSS
NE NC/EXTREME SE VA...SPREADING NWD THRU EARLY AFTERNOON. STILL
REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF MODEL/ENSEMBLE SPREAD WITH REGARDS TO
QPF...WHICH WILL OF COURSE HAVE IMPACTS ON TOTAL SNOWFALL. TAKING A
BLEND OF THE FAVORED SHORT TERM GUIDANCE STILL YIELDS A QPF FORECAST
SIMILAR TO 24 HOURS AGO. THUS THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OF 10-15:1
SNOWFALL IS STILL FAVORED OVER NE NC AROUND THE ALBEMARLE SOUND.
AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES ARE STILL EXPECTED...WITH SOME BANDING
EXPECTED AS NAM12 DEPICTS BEST FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS THAT REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LOCALIZED 5 INCH
AMOUNTS. AMOUNTS TAPER OFF TO 1 TO 3 INCHES INTO HAMPTON ROADS AND
TOWARDS SOUTHAMPTON AND ISLE OF WIGHT COUNTIES. BASED ON
AFOREMENTIONED QPF DISCREPANCIES...THERE STILL REMAINS A QUESTION OF
HOW FAR NORTH LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE
AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND LIFTS ALONG THE COAST EARLY AFTERNOON.
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AS BETTER FORCING ARRIVES
OVER CENTRAL VA. MOISTURE IS NOT AS DEEP INTO CENTRAL VA...BUT
THERMAL PROFILES/CROSS SECTIONS STILL INDICATE HIGH RH/ICE IN THE
SNOW GROWTH ZONE WITH PLENTY OF OMEGA. BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER LEVELS...STILL THINKING THIS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR LIGHT SNOW
INTO THE TRI-CITIES AND RICHMOND AREA. HOWEVER...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
WILL TAPER OFF TO LESS THAN HALF AN INCH TOWARDS RICHMOND DUE TO
SHORT DURATION. COLD SURFACE/ROADWAYS WILL ALLOW ANY SNOW THAT FALLS
TO ACCUMULATE ON THE ROADWAYS...SO DRIVING WILL STILL BE IMPACTED.
FARTHER NORTHWEST OF RICHMOND COULD SEE JUST A DUSTING.

TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM INTO THE MID 30S TODAY THANKS TO
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP.

SNOW COMES TO AN END THIS EVENG/EARLY TNGT...AS THE SFC LO PUSHES
WELL ENE OF THE MID-ATLC CST AND THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY PUSHES THRU THE
REGION. CLEARING SW TO NE LATE TONIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW/ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE POLAR VORTEX DIGS
OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. ~1040MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE MIDWEST...USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WINDY SAT WITH NW WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO
25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH (STRONGER NEAR THE COAST AND
OVER THE EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS SAT FORECAST TO WARM ONLY INTO THE
MID 20S NW TO LOW 30S SE (-2 STD DEV) UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE IN THE TEENS...RESULTING IN A
RAW/COLD/WINDY DAY. TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS SAT NIGHT. WINDS DECOUPLE INLAND AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...BUT WIND CHILLS STILL FORECAST IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
INLAND TO 0 TO 8 BELOW NRN NECK TO THE ERN SHORE. THE HIGH CENTERS
OVER THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY WITH NLY WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. SLIGHTLY
COLDER SUN WITH DECREASED MIXING. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER
20S (-2 STD DEV) UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ATTENTION
TURNING TO A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. THERE
REMAINS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS...ALTHOUGH
THE 11/12Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING SLOWER...AND WARMER FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. THE 11/12Z GFS CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT PCPN MONDAY AS A NRN STREAM TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WOULD MAINLY FALL AS SN OR SN/IP...WITH A TRANSITION TO
RA CLOSER TO THE COAST BY AFTERNOON. SUBSTANTIAL WARMING ALOFT WOULD
GENERALLY RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO RA MONDAY NIGHT...ASIDE FROM THE
FAR NW WHERE MIXED PCPN COULD PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH AN
IN-SITU WEDGE IN PLACE. THE LATEST DATA SCOURS OUT THE WEDGE BY
AFTERNOON WITH P-TYPE BECOMING RA EVEN IN THE FAR NW. DRYING OCCURS
MIDWEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE
CLIPPING THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
OF COOLER AIR AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS MONDAY WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOW 30S ALONG
AND W OF I-95...WHILE COASTAL LOCATIONS WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOW 40S. TEMPERATURES REMAIN STEADY MONDAY EVENING AND BEGIN TO RISE
OVERNIGHT EVENTUALLY WARMING INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S...FOLLOWED BY
LOW 40S NE...TO UPPER 40S SW THURSDAY. MORNING LOWS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WK SFC LO PRES WILL BE EXITING NC/SC CST THIS AFTN/EVE. BROAD AREA
OF SN TO MOVE ACRS MNLY SE VA/NE NC. PD OF MDT SN PSBL FM ABT
20-23Z/12...ESP AT ECG. ELSW...DRY LO LVL ATMOS XPD TO PREVENT
ANYTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES RIC-SBY.

TROUGH ALOFT TO PUSH ACRS THE RGN TNGT...PTNTL FOR SCT -SN...MNLY
INVOF SBY FM ABT 02-03Z TO 08-09Z/13. OTRW...STRONG CDFNT TO PUSH
ACRS THE RGN OVRNGT. GUSTY NW WNDS TO 25-35 KT TO DEVELOP LT
TNGT/EARLY SAT MRNG...CONTG THROUGH THE DAY SAT. VFR AND DRY WX
WILL PREVAIL SAT THROUGH SUN NGT. PCPN DEVELOPS MONDAY AS THE NEXT
WX SYS APPROACHES FROM THE W. PCPN BEGINS AS SNOW MON MRNG...MNLY
INLAND...BEFORE WARMER AIR WORKS IN AND CHANGES ANY SN TO RA FROM
SE TO NW DURING MON. RA CONTS INTO TUESDAY AS LO PRES TRACKS ACRS
THE AREA. DRY WX RETURNS WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES TODAY AS THE MARINE AREA WINDS WILL GNRLY BE AOB 15KTS
AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRS PROGGED TO MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THIS LOW WILL NOT BRING ANY WIND RELATED MARINE
HEADLINES...THE ASSCTD PCPN WILL BRING REDUCED VSBYS IN SNOW/SLEET
OF VARYING INTENSITIES LATE THIS AFTRN AND EVE.

AS THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. A NW WIND WILL AVERAGE 25-30KT
WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35-40KT OVER THE OCEAN AND BAY. SEAS BUILD TO
5-8FT WITH 4-5 FT WAVES IN THE BAY. GALE FLAGS HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR
LATE TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND...WIND
SPEEDS HAVE BEEN CAPPED AT HIGH-END SCA AT THIS TIME.

EXPANDED THE FREEZING SPRAY WINDOW TO INCLUDE SAT...SAT NITE AND SUN
MORN GIVEN FCSTD WND SPEEDS / GUSTS COMBINED WITH AIR TMPS BELOW 30
DEGREES. LIMITED THE FREEZING SPRAY TO THE MORE OPEN CHES BAY AND
CSTL WATER AREAS. PER COORD WITH PHL...HOISTED FREEZING SPRAY ADVSRY
FOR THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL. THIS MEANS LIGHT TO MDT ACCUMULATION OF
ICE CAN BE EXPECTED ON VESSELS.

THE WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES
ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FORM THE SW EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE
BLOW-OUT TIDES / LOW WATER ADVISORIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     NCZ012>014.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ015>017-
     030>032-102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ092-
     093-095>098-100-523>525.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ633-635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM/TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...ALB/MPR
MARINE...MPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 121756
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1256 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
MORNING...LIFTING NORTHEAST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA
COASTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS YEAR. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALONG A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY JUST OFF THE SC COAST THIS MORNING. RADAR
RETURNS DEPICTING CONVECTION AROUND THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE LOW.
RADAR RETURNS OVER THE LOCAL AREA ARE ELEVATED AND NOT REACHING THE
GROUND AS THE SUB CLOUD LAYER REMAINS QUITE DRY THANKS TO HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...THE LATEST RETURNS
ARE ALREADY INDICATING WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND WILL LIKELY SET
UP...ACROSS SE VA/NE NC. ALOFT...LATEST GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
RAOB PLOTS DEPICT SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE MID MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY.
THIS SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES THRU THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH HEIGHT FALLS FURTHER DEEPENING THE SFC LOW OFF THE SC
COAST. THIS WILL LIKELY PUSH THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND SWWD
SLIGHTLY...WITH THE ADDED DYNAMICS DEEPENING THE MOISTURE FIELDS.
THIS IS HANDLED WELL IN THE BUFR SOUNDINGS AND ISENTROPIC FIELDS.
EXPECT SNOW TO BEGIN FALLING BY LATE MORNING TO AROUND NOON ACROSS
NE NC/EXTREME SE VA...SPREADING NWD THRU EARLY AFTERNOON. STILL
REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF MODEL/ENSEMBLE SPREAD WITH REGARDS TO
QPF...WHICH WILL OF COURSE HAVE IMPACTS ON TOTAL SNOWFALL. TAKING A
BLEND OF THE FAVORED SHORT TERM GUIDANCE STILL YIELDS A QPF FORECAST
SIMILAR TO 24 HOURS AGO. THUS THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OF 10-15:1
SNOWFALL IS STILL FAVORED OVER NE NC AROUND THE ALBEMARLE SOUND.
AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES ARE STILL EXPECTED...WITH SOME BANDING
EXPECTED AS NAM12 DEPICTS BEST FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS THAT REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LOCALIZED 5 INCH
AMOUNTS. AMOUNTS TAPER OFF TO 1 TO 3 INCHES INTO HAMPTON ROADS AND
TOWARDS SOUTHAMPTON AND ISLE OF WIGHT COUNTIES. BASED ON
AFOREMENTIONED QPF DISCREPANCIES...THERE STILL REMAINS A QUESTION OF
HOW FAR NORTH LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE
AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND LIFTS ALONG THE COAST EARLY AFTERNOON.
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AS BETTER FORCING ARRIVES
OVER CENTRAL VA. MOISTURE IS NOT AS DEEP INTO CENTRAL VA...BUT
THERMAL PROFILES/CROSS SECTIONS STILL INDICATE HIGH RH/ICE IN THE
SNOW GROWTH ZONE WITH PLENTY OF OMEGA. BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER LEVELS...STILL THINKING THIS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR LIGHT SNOW
INTO THE TRI-CITIES AND RICHMOND AREA. HOWEVER...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
WILL TAPER OFF TO LESS THAN HALF AN INCH TOWARDS RICHMOND DUE TO
SHORT DURATION. COLD SURFACE/ROADWAYS WILL ALLOW ANY SNOW THAT FALLS
TO ACCUMULATE ON THE ROADWAYS...SO DRIVING WILL STILL BE IMPACTED.
FARTHER NORTHWEST OF RICHMOND COULD SEE JUST A DUSTING.

TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM INTO THE MID 30S TODAY THANKS TO
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP.

SNOW COMES TO AN END THIS EVENG/EARLY TNGT...AS THE SFC LO PUSHES
WELL ENE OF THE MID-ATLC CST AND THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY PUSHES THRU THE
REGION. CLEARING SW TO NE LATE TONIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW/ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE POLAR VORTEX DIGS
OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. ~1040MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE MIDWEST...USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WINDY SAT WITH NW WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO
25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH (STRONGER NEAR THE COAST AND
OVER THE EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS SAT FORECAST TO WARM ONLY INTO THE
MID 20S NW TO LOW 30S SE (-2 STD DEV) UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE IN THE TEENS...RESULTING IN A
RAW/COLD/WINDY DAY. TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS SAT NIGHT. WINDS DECOUPLE INLAND AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...BUT WIND CHILLS STILL FORECAST IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
INLAND TO 0 TO 8 BELOW NRN NECK TO THE ERN SHORE. THE HIGH CENTERS
OVER THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY WITH NLY WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. SLIGHTLY
COLDER SUN WITH DECREASED MIXING. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER
20S (-2 STD DEV) UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ATTENTION
TURNING TO A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. THERE
REMAINS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS...ALTHOUGH
THE 11/12Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING SLOWER...AND WARMER FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. THE 11/12Z GFS CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT PCPN MONDAY AS A NRN STREAM TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WOULD MAINLY FALL AS SN OR SN/IP...WITH A TRANSITION TO
RA CLOSER TO THE COAST BY AFTERNOON. SUBSTANTIAL WARMING ALOFT WOULD
GENERALLY RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO RA MONDAY NIGHT...ASIDE FROM THE
FAR NW WHERE MIXED PCPN COULD PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH AN
IN-SITU WEDGE IN PLACE. THE LATEST DATA SCOURS OUT THE WEDGE BY
AFTERNOON WITH P-TYPE BECOMING RA EVEN IN THE FAR NW. DRYING OCCURS
MIDWEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE
CLIPPING THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
OF COOLER AIR AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS MONDAY WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOW 30S ALONG
AND W OF I-95...WHILE COASTAL LOCATIONS WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOW 40S. TEMPERATURES REMAIN STEADY MONDAY EVENING AND BEGIN TO RISE
OVERNIGHT EVENTUALLY WARMING INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S...FOLLOWED BY
LOW 40S NE...TO UPPER 40S SW THURSDAY. MORNING LOWS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WK SFC LO PRES WILL BE EXITING NC/SC CST THIS AFTN/EVE. BROAD AREA
OF SN TO MOVE ACRS MNLY SE VA/NE NC. PD OF MDT SN PSBL FM ABT
20-23Z/12...ESP AT ECG. ELSW...DRY LO LVL ATMOS XPD TO PREVENT
ANYTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES RIC-SBY.

TROUGH ALOFT TO PUSH ACRS THE RGN TNGT...PTNTL FOR SCT -SN...MNLY
INVOF SBY FM ABT 02-03Z TO 08-09Z/13. OTRW...STRONG CDFNT TO PUSH
ACRS THE RGN OVRNGT. GUSTY NW WNDS TO 25-35 KT TO DEVELOP LT
TNGT/EARLY SAT MRNG...CONTG THROUGH THE DAY SAT. VFR AND DRY WX
WILL PREVAIL SAT THROUGH SUN NGT. PCPN DEVELOPS MONDAY AS THE NEXT
WX SYS APPROACHES FROM THE W. PCPN BEGINS AS SNOW MON MRNG...MNLY
INLAND...BEFORE WARMER AIR WORKS IN AND CHANGES ANY SN TO RA FROM
SE TO NW DURING MON. RA CONTS INTO TUESDAY AS LO PRES TRACKS ACRS
THE AREA. DRY WX RETURNS WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES TODAY AS THE MARINE AREA WINDS WILL GNRLY BE AOB 15KTS
AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRS PROGGED TO MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THIS LOW WILL NOT BRING ANY WIND RELATED MARINE
HEADLINES...THE ASSCTD PCPN WILL BRING REDUCED VSBYS IN SNOW/SLEET
OF VARYING INTENSITIES LATE THIS AFTRN AND EVE.

AS THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. A NW WIND WILL AVERAGE 25-30KT
WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35-40KT OVER THE OCEAN AND BAY. SEAS BUILD TO
5-8FT WITH 4-5 FT WAVES IN THE BAY. GALE FLAGS HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR
LATE TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND...WIND
SPEEDS HAVE BEEN CAPPED AT HIGH-END SCA AT THIS TIME.

EXPANDED THE FREEZING SPRAY WINDOW TO INCLUDE SAT...SAT NITE AND SUN
MORN GIVEN FCSTD WND SPEEDS / GUSTS COMBINED WITH AIR TMPS BELOW 30
DEGREES. LIMITED THE FREEZING SPRAY TO THE MORE OPEN CHES BAY AND
CSTL WATER AREAS. PER COORD WITH PHL...HOISTED FREEZING SPRAY ADVSRY
FOR THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL. THIS MEANS LIGHT TO MDT ACCUMULATION OF
ICE CAN BE EXPECTED ON VESSELS.

THE WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES
ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FORM THE SW EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE
BLOW-OUT TIDES / LOW WATER ADVISORIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     NCZ012>014.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ015>017-
     030>032-102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ092-
     093-095>098-100-523>525.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ633-635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM/TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...ALB/MPR
MARINE...MPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 121756
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1256 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
MORNING...LIFTING NORTHEAST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA
COASTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS YEAR. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALONG A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY JUST OFF THE SC COAST THIS MORNING. RADAR
RETURNS DEPICTING CONVECTION AROUND THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE LOW.
RADAR RETURNS OVER THE LOCAL AREA ARE ELEVATED AND NOT REACHING THE
GROUND AS THE SUB CLOUD LAYER REMAINS QUITE DRY THANKS TO HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...THE LATEST RETURNS
ARE ALREADY INDICATING WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND WILL LIKELY SET
UP...ACROSS SE VA/NE NC. ALOFT...LATEST GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
RAOB PLOTS DEPICT SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE MID MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY.
THIS SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES THRU THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH HEIGHT FALLS FURTHER DEEPENING THE SFC LOW OFF THE SC
COAST. THIS WILL LIKELY PUSH THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND SWWD
SLIGHTLY...WITH THE ADDED DYNAMICS DEEPENING THE MOISTURE FIELDS.
THIS IS HANDLED WELL IN THE BUFR SOUNDINGS AND ISENTROPIC FIELDS.
EXPECT SNOW TO BEGIN FALLING BY LATE MORNING TO AROUND NOON ACROSS
NE NC/EXTREME SE VA...SPREADING NWD THRU EARLY AFTERNOON. STILL
REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF MODEL/ENSEMBLE SPREAD WITH REGARDS TO
QPF...WHICH WILL OF COURSE HAVE IMPACTS ON TOTAL SNOWFALL. TAKING A
BLEND OF THE FAVORED SHORT TERM GUIDANCE STILL YIELDS A QPF FORECAST
SIMILAR TO 24 HOURS AGO. THUS THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OF 10-15:1
SNOWFALL IS STILL FAVORED OVER NE NC AROUND THE ALBEMARLE SOUND.
AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES ARE STILL EXPECTED...WITH SOME BANDING
EXPECTED AS NAM12 DEPICTS BEST FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS THAT REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LOCALIZED 5 INCH
AMOUNTS. AMOUNTS TAPER OFF TO 1 TO 3 INCHES INTO HAMPTON ROADS AND
TOWARDS SOUTHAMPTON AND ISLE OF WIGHT COUNTIES. BASED ON
AFOREMENTIONED QPF DISCREPANCIES...THERE STILL REMAINS A QUESTION OF
HOW FAR NORTH LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE
AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND LIFTS ALONG THE COAST EARLY AFTERNOON.
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AS BETTER FORCING ARRIVES
OVER CENTRAL VA. MOISTURE IS NOT AS DEEP INTO CENTRAL VA...BUT
THERMAL PROFILES/CROSS SECTIONS STILL INDICATE HIGH RH/ICE IN THE
SNOW GROWTH ZONE WITH PLENTY OF OMEGA. BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER LEVELS...STILL THINKING THIS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR LIGHT SNOW
INTO THE TRI-CITIES AND RICHMOND AREA. HOWEVER...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
WILL TAPER OFF TO LESS THAN HALF AN INCH TOWARDS RICHMOND DUE TO
SHORT DURATION. COLD SURFACE/ROADWAYS WILL ALLOW ANY SNOW THAT FALLS
TO ACCUMULATE ON THE ROADWAYS...SO DRIVING WILL STILL BE IMPACTED.
FARTHER NORTHWEST OF RICHMOND COULD SEE JUST A DUSTING.

TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM INTO THE MID 30S TODAY THANKS TO
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP.

SNOW COMES TO AN END THIS EVENG/EARLY TNGT...AS THE SFC LO PUSHES
WELL ENE OF THE MID-ATLC CST AND THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY PUSHES THRU THE
REGION. CLEARING SW TO NE LATE TONIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW/ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE POLAR VORTEX DIGS
OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. ~1040MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE MIDWEST...USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WINDY SAT WITH NW WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO
25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH (STRONGER NEAR THE COAST AND
OVER THE EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS SAT FORECAST TO WARM ONLY INTO THE
MID 20S NW TO LOW 30S SE (-2 STD DEV) UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE IN THE TEENS...RESULTING IN A
RAW/COLD/WINDY DAY. TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS SAT NIGHT. WINDS DECOUPLE INLAND AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...BUT WIND CHILLS STILL FORECAST IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
INLAND TO 0 TO 8 BELOW NRN NECK TO THE ERN SHORE. THE HIGH CENTERS
OVER THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY WITH NLY WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. SLIGHTLY
COLDER SUN WITH DECREASED MIXING. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER
20S (-2 STD DEV) UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ATTENTION
TURNING TO A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. THERE
REMAINS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS...ALTHOUGH
THE 11/12Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING SLOWER...AND WARMER FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. THE 11/12Z GFS CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT PCPN MONDAY AS A NRN STREAM TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WOULD MAINLY FALL AS SN OR SN/IP...WITH A TRANSITION TO
RA CLOSER TO THE COAST BY AFTERNOON. SUBSTANTIAL WARMING ALOFT WOULD
GENERALLY RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO RA MONDAY NIGHT...ASIDE FROM THE
FAR NW WHERE MIXED PCPN COULD PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH AN
IN-SITU WEDGE IN PLACE. THE LATEST DATA SCOURS OUT THE WEDGE BY
AFTERNOON WITH P-TYPE BECOMING RA EVEN IN THE FAR NW. DRYING OCCURS
MIDWEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE
CLIPPING THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
OF COOLER AIR AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS MONDAY WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOW 30S ALONG
AND W OF I-95...WHILE COASTAL LOCATIONS WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOW 40S. TEMPERATURES REMAIN STEADY MONDAY EVENING AND BEGIN TO RISE
OVERNIGHT EVENTUALLY WARMING INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S...FOLLOWED BY
LOW 40S NE...TO UPPER 40S SW THURSDAY. MORNING LOWS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WK SFC LO PRES WILL BE EXITING NC/SC CST THIS AFTN/EVE. BROAD AREA
OF SN TO MOVE ACRS MNLY SE VA/NE NC. PD OF MDT SN PSBL FM ABT
20-23Z/12...ESP AT ECG. ELSW...DRY LO LVL ATMOS XPD TO PREVENT
ANYTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES RIC-SBY.

TROUGH ALOFT TO PUSH ACRS THE RGN TNGT...PTNTL FOR SCT -SN...MNLY
INVOF SBY FM ABT 02-03Z TO 08-09Z/13. OTRW...STRONG CDFNT TO PUSH
ACRS THE RGN OVRNGT. GUSTY NW WNDS TO 25-35 KT TO DEVELOP LT
TNGT/EARLY SAT MRNG...CONTG THROUGH THE DAY SAT. VFR AND DRY WX
WILL PREVAIL SAT THROUGH SUN NGT. PCPN DEVELOPS MONDAY AS THE NEXT
WX SYS APPROACHES FROM THE W. PCPN BEGINS AS SNOW MON MRNG...MNLY
INLAND...BEFORE WARMER AIR WORKS IN AND CHANGES ANY SN TO RA FROM
SE TO NW DURING MON. RA CONTS INTO TUESDAY AS LO PRES TRACKS ACRS
THE AREA. DRY WX RETURNS WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES TODAY AS THE MARINE AREA WINDS WILL GNRLY BE AOB 15KTS
AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRS PROGGED TO MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THIS LOW WILL NOT BRING ANY WIND RELATED MARINE
HEADLINES...THE ASSCTD PCPN WILL BRING REDUCED VSBYS IN SNOW/SLEET
OF VARYING INTENSITIES LATE THIS AFTRN AND EVE.

AS THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. A NW WIND WILL AVERAGE 25-30KT
WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35-40KT OVER THE OCEAN AND BAY. SEAS BUILD TO
5-8FT WITH 4-5 FT WAVES IN THE BAY. GALE FLAGS HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR
LATE TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND...WIND
SPEEDS HAVE BEEN CAPPED AT HIGH-END SCA AT THIS TIME.

EXPANDED THE FREEZING SPRAY WINDOW TO INCLUDE SAT...SAT NITE AND SUN
MORN GIVEN FCSTD WND SPEEDS / GUSTS COMBINED WITH AIR TMPS BELOW 30
DEGREES. LIMITED THE FREEZING SPRAY TO THE MORE OPEN CHES BAY AND
CSTL WATER AREAS. PER COORD WITH PHL...HOISTED FREEZING SPRAY ADVSRY
FOR THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL. THIS MEANS LIGHT TO MDT ACCUMULATION OF
ICE CAN BE EXPECTED ON VESSELS.

THE WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES
ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FORM THE SW EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE
BLOW-OUT TIDES / LOW WATER ADVISORIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     NCZ012>014.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ015>017-
     030>032-102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ092-
     093-095>098-100-523>525.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ633-635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM/TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...ALB/MPR
MARINE...MPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KRNK 121701
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1201 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON BRINGING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR FOLLOWS
THIS SYSTEM OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN VERY WINDY CONDITIONS AND
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH SOME ADDED SNOW SHOWERS
FOR THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO SATURDAY. BY
MONDAY ANOTHER WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM EST FRIDAY...

COLUMN CONTINUING TO SLOWLY MOISTEN AS AXIS OF ISENTROPIC LIFT
SPILLS EAST AHEAD OF THE STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR PASSING TO THE SOUTH. LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO VARY ON JUST HOW FAR EAST ANY OF THESE BANDS WILL MAKE IT WITH
SOME PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SLOPES...WHILE OTHERS
INCLUDING THE WRF-ARW AND TO SOME DEGREE THE HRRR SPILL LIGHT
SNOW EAST TO THE BLUE RIDGE AND POINTS EAST. ALTHOUGH THIS LOOKS
OVERDONE...PERIOD OF BACKING ALOFT MAY BE ENOUGH TO HELP PUSH
LIGHT SNOW FARTHER EAST THAN TYPICAL DOWNSLOPING WOULD ALLOW
ESPCLY WITH THE UPSTREAM TRAILING CHANNELED VORT AXIS SEEN BACK
IN KY. THUS BUMPED UP AMOUNTS A BIT ACROSS THE FAR SW PER CURRENT
TRAJECTORY OF SNOW TO THE WEST AND HEADING OUT EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE FOR AT LEAST A COATING. APPEARS LEAST AMOUNT OF SNOW MAY
OCCUR OVER THE NORTH AS THE TRANSFER OF ENERGY FROM THE MOUNTAINS
TO THE COASTAL DUCKS FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STILL
GOING HEADLINES ON TRACK FOR AN INCH OR SO TODAY OUT WEST AND
COMBINED UPSLOPE OVERNIGHT SO NO CHANGES THERE OTHER THAN TO TWEAK
AMOUNTS. ALSO MADE SOME SLIGHT UPWARD ADJUSTS TO TEMPS MAINLY EAST
WHERE COULD SURGE UP AS A FEW BREAKS DEVELOP AHEAD OF ANY PRECIP
THAT ATTEMPTS TO HEAD EAST OF THE RIDGES. THINK MOST PTYPE EVEN
OUT THERE TO BE SNOW GIVEN COLDNESS ALOFT SO RUNNING WITH MOSTLY
SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS.

WILL NEED TO TAKE A LOOK AT THE WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING BEHIND THE PASSING ARCTIC FRONT AS COULD SEE WARNING
CRITERIA SW BUT WILL AWAIT 12Z GUIDANCE BEFORE UPDATING.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 400 AM EST FRIDAY...

THE MAIN WEATHER PLAYERS FOR OUR REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND SETS
OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
BELIEVE THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION WILL SEE AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW
BEFORE THE UPSLOPE REALLY KICKS IN AND PROVIDES ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
ALONG THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES THROUGH TONIGHT. THE AIR MOVING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT IS QUITE COLD INDEED AND WILL CREATE SOME VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND EVEN A BIT OF CAPE...WHICH MAY BRING US ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR A PERIOD OF THUNDERSNOW EARLY TONIGHT. MESO MODELS ALSO INDICATE
A DECENT UPSTREAM CONTRIBUTION TO THE MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
BELIEVE THESE FACTORS WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
GENERALLY IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES WITH SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE SO WILL ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA
FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO START TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND GOOD MOMENTUM
TRANSFER IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALLOW FOR QUITE A BIT OF WIND
OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH EXPECTED ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO GENERATE WIND CHILL VALUES OF 5 TO 15
BELOW ZERO...WITH READINGS TO 25 BELOW FOR WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY IN
WEST VIRGINIA. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ON SATURDAY BUT THE
COMBINATION OF WIND AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE VERY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE AREA ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH A WIND CHILL WARNING FOR
WESTERN GREENBRIER. CONDITIONS EAST OF THE RIDGE WILL NOT BE QUITE AS
SEVERE AS LOWS TONIGHT REACH THE 15 TO 20 DEGREE RANGE WITH WIND CHILL
VALUES INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EST FRIDAY...

COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON STILL SLATED TO BE SPREADING INTO THE
REGION FOR SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT SUNDAY
MORNING. THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF THE INTENSITY OF THE COLD AIR
MASS JUST SLIGHTLY WITH EACH SUCCEEDING RUN...NOW STOPPING AROUND
-22C ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. SIMILAR EVENTS
THE PAST TWO YEARS HAVE SEEN READINGS CLOSER TO -25/-26C...SO FEEL
CONFIDENT THAT MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL FALL A
COUPLE OF DEGREES SHY OF WHAT WE SAW THE LAST COUPLE OF YEARS WITH
SIMILAR ARCTIC OUTBREAKS. ALSO...SNOW COVER IS LIMITED EAST OF
THE ALLEGHANY FRONT AND THE MOUNTAINS OF SW VA/NW NC...SO THAT
WILL ALSO NOT HELP DRIVE TEMPERATURES TO THE LEVELS WE SAW AROUND
THIS TIME LAST YEAR. NONETHELESS...IT WILL BE BITTERLY COLD AND
VERY WINDY...PROMPTING A CONTINUATION OF THE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND THE WARNING FOR WESTERN GREENBRIER.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
NEAR 0 TO -5F AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THE ADVISORIES/WARNINGS
ARE WARRANTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS IT WILL TAKE VERY
LITTLE FOR WIND CHILLS TO MEET CRITERIA WITH TEMPS THAT LOW.

UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN SATURDAY MORNING
FAIRLY QUICKLY AS THE VERY DRY ARCTIC AIR MASS SPREADS INTO THE
REGION. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS GOING THROUGH MID-DAY...THEN END THEM...ALBEIT SOME
FLURRIES COULD CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS ARCTIC COLD-
ADVECTION SQUEAKS OUT ANY REMAINING MOISTURE. WINDS WILL BE
STRONG AND GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT LIKELY DROP BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THAT
IS LUMPED INTO THE WSW.

THE ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING WITH...AS
NOTED ABOVE...BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES...BUT WINDS TRENDING
TOWARD CALM. BY AFTERNOON...THE ARCTIC HIGH HAS ALREADY SHIFTED
TOWARD THE VA/MD COAST WITH RETURN FLOW EVIDENT ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHWEST VA. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE QUICKLY MOVES TOWARD
THE REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASING MOISTURE FROM TOP
DOWN. THE ANTECEDENT AIR MASS WILL CLEARLY BE VERY DRY AND COLD
AND NOT SURE HOW QUICKLY THE AIR MASS WILL SATURATE TO ALLOW
GENERATED PRECIPITATION ALOFT TO REACH THE GROUND. INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THIS SHOULD BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE AFTER SUNSET IN THE WEST AND
CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT IN THE EAST. THUS...WILL LEAVE THE DAYTIME
HOURS OF SUNDAY DRY WITH POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT. ALL PRECIPITATION
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA AS THE SOUNDINGS
REMAIN BELOW FREEZING AT ALL LEVELS.

AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY...THE SITUATION BECOMES INCREASINGLY
COMPLICATED. THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF
THE REGION EARLY MONDAY...WHILE A STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT
WAVE DEEPENS INTO THE MID-SOUTH. DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
THEN DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THIS SECOND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH...MOVING TOWARD THE EASTERN TN VALLEY BY
MONDAY EVENING. ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE TAKEN A SLIGHT WEST JOG
WITH THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE...RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
WARMER AIR FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TO ENCROACH ON THE REGION.
NONETHELESS...THE ANTECEDENT AIR MASS WILL BE VERY COLD AND MODELS
OFTEN ADVERTISE A WARMUP TOO QUICKLY WITH THIS TYPE OF SITUATION.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...THEN BEGIN
TO LIFT NORTHWARD EARLY TUE. THIS IS WHEN THE P-TYPE ISSUES WILL
BEGIN WITH A TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN AND
PERHAPS EVEN RAIN IN PARTS OF THE PIEDMONT. THIS ENTIRE PERIOD
WILL EVENTUALLY HAVE TO BE HANDLED BY TOP-DOWN OR SIMILAR P-TYPE
PROCEDURES...BUT GIVEN IT IS STILL OUT IN THE DAY 4 AND BEYOND
PERIOD....WILL STICK WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE FOR NOW. ALTHOUGH
SNOW/SLEET/ICE AMOUNTS STILL HIGHLY IN QUESTION...IT STILL APPEARS
QUITE CERTAIN THAT WINTER STORM CRITERIA WILL LIKELY BE MET ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA IN THE SUN NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUE TIME
FRAME...WITH STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THIS
PERIOD WILL LIKELY NEED TO FOLLOW ON THE HEELS OF THE CURRENT
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EST THURSDAY...

A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW...REMAINING MOSTLY INLAND...WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE CWA TUE...MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC BY
EVENING. SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR MUCH
OF THE CWA...BUT POTENTIALLY TRANSITIONING TO RAIN ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. BUFKIT SHOWS CONSIDERABLE VERTICAL MOTION IN THE SNOW
GROWTH ZONE EARLY TUESDAY...SO THERE COULD BE A BURST OF HEAVY
SNOW/SLEET BEFORE THE DRY SLOT SPREADS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND SHUTS OFF THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION...WHICH SHOULD
OCCUR BY MIDDAY TUE. BY EVENING...COLDER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER
BACK INTO THE WESTERN AREAS AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS COMMENCE ONCE
AGAIN.

IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG SYNOPTIC SYSTEM TUESDAY...ANOTHER
CLIPPER IS EVIDENT IN CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL
WARMING OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE LOOKS LIMITED DURING THIS PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS SHOWED SUBSTANTIAL WARMING
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...THAT IS NOT EVIDENT TODAY. MEXMOS KEEPS
WESTERN AREAS MOSTLY AT OR BELOW FREEZING THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH
ONLY LIMITED WARMING DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE
CLIPPER TUE NIGHT/WED...COULD BRING ADDITIONAL MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS TO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA BEFORE MOVING
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. OUTSIDE OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...THAT
SHOULD BE THE LAST OF ANY SYNOPTIC-SCALE INDUCED PRECIPITATION FOR
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1150 AM EST FRIDAY...

LOWER CIGS AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT SNOW BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO HEAD
EAST CROSSING THE BLUE RIDGE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT
IN PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR OVER THE WESTERN SITES AND BRIEF MVFR
ESPCLY AROUND KDAN BY MID AFTERNOON. ONCE THE WINDS TURN MORE
NORTHWEST SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE OVER THE EAST AND RETURN
TO VFR BY EARLY EVENING IF NOT SOONER.

HOWEVER FOR KBCB/KBLF/KLWB THE NWLY WINDS WILL BE UPSLOPE AND
THIS WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS AT THESE LOCATIONS WITH MVFR/IFR
CIGS/VSBYS INTO THIS EVENING AT KBCB...CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AT
KBLF/KLWB. BEHIND THE FRONT ALL SITES WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT WIND
GUSTS AS A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ALLOWS FOR EFFICIENT MOMENTUM
TRANSFER OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT G40-45KT AT KROA
WITH GUSTS AOA 35KT FOR KBCB/KBLF OVERNIGHT.

A GRADUAL RETURN TO VFR APPEARS LIKELY ON SATURDAY ALTHOUGH
KBLF/KLWB LIKELY TO KEEP MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AROUND UNTIL LATE IN
THE DAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG ON SATURDAY WITH GUSTS TO 30-40
KTS LIKELY UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN DURING THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT POOR FLYING WEATHER WILL TAKE PLACE DURING
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING WINTRY
PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT FURTHER UPDATES FROM THE
LONGER RANGE MODELS MAY IMPACT THE DETAILS ON PRECIPITATION TYPE
AND STORM TRACK. ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY
KEEP MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH MAINLY VFR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND. SEVERAL RECORD LOW
MAX TEMPERATURES AND LOW TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE. BELOW ARE THE
CURRENT RECORDS FOR SATURDAY 2/13 AND SUNDAY 2/14.

SATURDAY 02/13/2016
SITE   MINT YEAR  LOMAX YEAR
KBLF     4 1988     19 1988
KDAN    11 1955     32 1981
KLYH     5 1979      9 1899
KROA     8 1917     18 1914
KRNK    -4 1969     14 1955


SUNDAY 02/14/2016
SITE   MINT YEAR  LOMAX YEAR
KBLF     5 1971     16 1960
KDAN    15 1986     32 1986
KLYH     4 1899     24 1905
KROA    10 1943     26 1986
KRNK    -2 1969     24 1986

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR VAZ007-009-
     015.
NC...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NCZ001-002-018.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR WVZ042>044-507.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR WVZ042-043-
     508.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR WVZ508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/MBS
NEAR TERM...JH/MBS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...AMS/RAB
AVIATION...JH/MBS/WP
CLIMATE...CF




000
FXUS61 KRNK 121701
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1201 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON BRINGING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR FOLLOWS
THIS SYSTEM OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN VERY WINDY CONDITIONS AND
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH SOME ADDED SNOW SHOWERS
FOR THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO SATURDAY. BY
MONDAY ANOTHER WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM EST FRIDAY...

COLUMN CONTINUING TO SLOWLY MOISTEN AS AXIS OF ISENTROPIC LIFT
SPILLS EAST AHEAD OF THE STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR PASSING TO THE SOUTH. LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO VARY ON JUST HOW FAR EAST ANY OF THESE BANDS WILL MAKE IT WITH
SOME PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SLOPES...WHILE OTHERS
INCLUDING THE WRF-ARW AND TO SOME DEGREE THE HRRR SPILL LIGHT
SNOW EAST TO THE BLUE RIDGE AND POINTS EAST. ALTHOUGH THIS LOOKS
OVERDONE...PERIOD OF BACKING ALOFT MAY BE ENOUGH TO HELP PUSH
LIGHT SNOW FARTHER EAST THAN TYPICAL DOWNSLOPING WOULD ALLOW
ESPCLY WITH THE UPSTREAM TRAILING CHANNELED VORT AXIS SEEN BACK
IN KY. THUS BUMPED UP AMOUNTS A BIT ACROSS THE FAR SW PER CURRENT
TRAJECTORY OF SNOW TO THE WEST AND HEADING OUT EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE FOR AT LEAST A COATING. APPEARS LEAST AMOUNT OF SNOW MAY
OCCUR OVER THE NORTH AS THE TRANSFER OF ENERGY FROM THE MOUNTAINS
TO THE COASTAL DUCKS FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STILL
GOING HEADLINES ON TRACK FOR AN INCH OR SO TODAY OUT WEST AND
COMBINED UPSLOPE OVERNIGHT SO NO CHANGES THERE OTHER THAN TO TWEAK
AMOUNTS. ALSO MADE SOME SLIGHT UPWARD ADJUSTS TO TEMPS MAINLY EAST
WHERE COULD SURGE UP AS A FEW BREAKS DEVELOP AHEAD OF ANY PRECIP
THAT ATTEMPTS TO HEAD EAST OF THE RIDGES. THINK MOST PTYPE EVEN
OUT THERE TO BE SNOW GIVEN COLDNESS ALOFT SO RUNNING WITH MOSTLY
SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS.

WILL NEED TO TAKE A LOOK AT THE WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING BEHIND THE PASSING ARCTIC FRONT AS COULD SEE WARNING
CRITERIA SW BUT WILL AWAIT 12Z GUIDANCE BEFORE UPDATING.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 400 AM EST FRIDAY...

THE MAIN WEATHER PLAYERS FOR OUR REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND SETS
OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
BELIEVE THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION WILL SEE AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW
BEFORE THE UPSLOPE REALLY KICKS IN AND PROVIDES ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
ALONG THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES THROUGH TONIGHT. THE AIR MOVING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT IS QUITE COLD INDEED AND WILL CREATE SOME VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND EVEN A BIT OF CAPE...WHICH MAY BRING US ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR A PERIOD OF THUNDERSNOW EARLY TONIGHT. MESO MODELS ALSO INDICATE
A DECENT UPSTREAM CONTRIBUTION TO THE MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
BELIEVE THESE FACTORS WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
GENERALLY IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES WITH SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE SO WILL ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA
FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO START TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND GOOD MOMENTUM
TRANSFER IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALLOW FOR QUITE A BIT OF WIND
OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH EXPECTED ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO GENERATE WIND CHILL VALUES OF 5 TO 15
BELOW ZERO...WITH READINGS TO 25 BELOW FOR WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY IN
WEST VIRGINIA. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ON SATURDAY BUT THE
COMBINATION OF WIND AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE VERY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE AREA ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH A WIND CHILL WARNING FOR
WESTERN GREENBRIER. CONDITIONS EAST OF THE RIDGE WILL NOT BE QUITE AS
SEVERE AS LOWS TONIGHT REACH THE 15 TO 20 DEGREE RANGE WITH WIND CHILL
VALUES INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EST FRIDAY...

COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON STILL SLATED TO BE SPREADING INTO THE
REGION FOR SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT SUNDAY
MORNING. THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF THE INTENSITY OF THE COLD AIR
MASS JUST SLIGHTLY WITH EACH SUCCEEDING RUN...NOW STOPPING AROUND
-22C ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. SIMILAR EVENTS
THE PAST TWO YEARS HAVE SEEN READINGS CLOSER TO -25/-26C...SO FEEL
CONFIDENT THAT MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL FALL A
COUPLE OF DEGREES SHY OF WHAT WE SAW THE LAST COUPLE OF YEARS WITH
SIMILAR ARCTIC OUTBREAKS. ALSO...SNOW COVER IS LIMITED EAST OF
THE ALLEGHANY FRONT AND THE MOUNTAINS OF SW VA/NW NC...SO THAT
WILL ALSO NOT HELP DRIVE TEMPERATURES TO THE LEVELS WE SAW AROUND
THIS TIME LAST YEAR. NONETHELESS...IT WILL BE BITTERLY COLD AND
VERY WINDY...PROMPTING A CONTINUATION OF THE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND THE WARNING FOR WESTERN GREENBRIER.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
NEAR 0 TO -5F AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THE ADVISORIES/WARNINGS
ARE WARRANTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS IT WILL TAKE VERY
LITTLE FOR WIND CHILLS TO MEET CRITERIA WITH TEMPS THAT LOW.

UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN SATURDAY MORNING
FAIRLY QUICKLY AS THE VERY DRY ARCTIC AIR MASS SPREADS INTO THE
REGION. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS GOING THROUGH MID-DAY...THEN END THEM...ALBEIT SOME
FLURRIES COULD CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS ARCTIC COLD-
ADVECTION SQUEAKS OUT ANY REMAINING MOISTURE. WINDS WILL BE
STRONG AND GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT LIKELY DROP BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THAT
IS LUMPED INTO THE WSW.

THE ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING WITH...AS
NOTED ABOVE...BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES...BUT WINDS TRENDING
TOWARD CALM. BY AFTERNOON...THE ARCTIC HIGH HAS ALREADY SHIFTED
TOWARD THE VA/MD COAST WITH RETURN FLOW EVIDENT ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHWEST VA. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE QUICKLY MOVES TOWARD
THE REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASING MOISTURE FROM TOP
DOWN. THE ANTECEDENT AIR MASS WILL CLEARLY BE VERY DRY AND COLD
AND NOT SURE HOW QUICKLY THE AIR MASS WILL SATURATE TO ALLOW
GENERATED PRECIPITATION ALOFT TO REACH THE GROUND. INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THIS SHOULD BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE AFTER SUNSET IN THE WEST AND
CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT IN THE EAST. THUS...WILL LEAVE THE DAYTIME
HOURS OF SUNDAY DRY WITH POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT. ALL PRECIPITATION
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA AS THE SOUNDINGS
REMAIN BELOW FREEZING AT ALL LEVELS.

AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY...THE SITUATION BECOMES INCREASINGLY
COMPLICATED. THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF
THE REGION EARLY MONDAY...WHILE A STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT
WAVE DEEPENS INTO THE MID-SOUTH. DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
THEN DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THIS SECOND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH...MOVING TOWARD THE EASTERN TN VALLEY BY
MONDAY EVENING. ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE TAKEN A SLIGHT WEST JOG
WITH THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE...RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
WARMER AIR FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TO ENCROACH ON THE REGION.
NONETHELESS...THE ANTECEDENT AIR MASS WILL BE VERY COLD AND MODELS
OFTEN ADVERTISE A WARMUP TOO QUICKLY WITH THIS TYPE OF SITUATION.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...THEN BEGIN
TO LIFT NORTHWARD EARLY TUE. THIS IS WHEN THE P-TYPE ISSUES WILL
BEGIN WITH A TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN AND
PERHAPS EVEN RAIN IN PARTS OF THE PIEDMONT. THIS ENTIRE PERIOD
WILL EVENTUALLY HAVE TO BE HANDLED BY TOP-DOWN OR SIMILAR P-TYPE
PROCEDURES...BUT GIVEN IT IS STILL OUT IN THE DAY 4 AND BEYOND
PERIOD....WILL STICK WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE FOR NOW. ALTHOUGH
SNOW/SLEET/ICE AMOUNTS STILL HIGHLY IN QUESTION...IT STILL APPEARS
QUITE CERTAIN THAT WINTER STORM CRITERIA WILL LIKELY BE MET ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA IN THE SUN NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUE TIME
FRAME...WITH STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THIS
PERIOD WILL LIKELY NEED TO FOLLOW ON THE HEELS OF THE CURRENT
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EST THURSDAY...

A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW...REMAINING MOSTLY INLAND...WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE CWA TUE...MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC BY
EVENING. SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR MUCH
OF THE CWA...BUT POTENTIALLY TRANSITIONING TO RAIN ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. BUFKIT SHOWS CONSIDERABLE VERTICAL MOTION IN THE SNOW
GROWTH ZONE EARLY TUESDAY...SO THERE COULD BE A BURST OF HEAVY
SNOW/SLEET BEFORE THE DRY SLOT SPREADS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND SHUTS OFF THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION...WHICH SHOULD
OCCUR BY MIDDAY TUE. BY EVENING...COLDER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER
BACK INTO THE WESTERN AREAS AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS COMMENCE ONCE
AGAIN.

IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG SYNOPTIC SYSTEM TUESDAY...ANOTHER
CLIPPER IS EVIDENT IN CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL
WARMING OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE LOOKS LIMITED DURING THIS PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS SHOWED SUBSTANTIAL WARMING
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...THAT IS NOT EVIDENT TODAY. MEXMOS KEEPS
WESTERN AREAS MOSTLY AT OR BELOW FREEZING THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH
ONLY LIMITED WARMING DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE
CLIPPER TUE NIGHT/WED...COULD BRING ADDITIONAL MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS TO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA BEFORE MOVING
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. OUTSIDE OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...THAT
SHOULD BE THE LAST OF ANY SYNOPTIC-SCALE INDUCED PRECIPITATION FOR
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1150 AM EST FRIDAY...

LOWER CIGS AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT SNOW BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO HEAD
EAST CROSSING THE BLUE RIDGE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT
IN PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR OVER THE WESTERN SITES AND BRIEF MVFR
ESPCLY AROUND KDAN BY MID AFTERNOON. ONCE THE WINDS TURN MORE
NORTHWEST SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE OVER THE EAST AND RETURN
TO VFR BY EARLY EVENING IF NOT SOONER.

HOWEVER FOR KBCB/KBLF/KLWB THE NWLY WINDS WILL BE UPSLOPE AND
THIS WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS AT THESE LOCATIONS WITH MVFR/IFR
CIGS/VSBYS INTO THIS EVENING AT KBCB...CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AT
KBLF/KLWB. BEHIND THE FRONT ALL SITES WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT WIND
GUSTS AS A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ALLOWS FOR EFFICIENT MOMENTUM
TRANSFER OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT G40-45KT AT KROA
WITH GUSTS AOA 35KT FOR KBCB/KBLF OVERNIGHT.

A GRADUAL RETURN TO VFR APPEARS LIKELY ON SATURDAY ALTHOUGH
KBLF/KLWB LIKELY TO KEEP MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AROUND UNTIL LATE IN
THE DAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG ON SATURDAY WITH GUSTS TO 30-40
KTS LIKELY UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN DURING THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT POOR FLYING WEATHER WILL TAKE PLACE DURING
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING WINTRY
PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT FURTHER UPDATES FROM THE
LONGER RANGE MODELS MAY IMPACT THE DETAILS ON PRECIPITATION TYPE
AND STORM TRACK. ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY
KEEP MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH MAINLY VFR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND. SEVERAL RECORD LOW
MAX TEMPERATURES AND LOW TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE. BELOW ARE THE
CURRENT RECORDS FOR SATURDAY 2/13 AND SUNDAY 2/14.

SATURDAY 02/13/2016
SITE   MINT YEAR  LOMAX YEAR
KBLF     4 1988     19 1988
KDAN    11 1955     32 1981
KLYH     5 1979      9 1899
KROA     8 1917     18 1914
KRNK    -4 1969     14 1955


SUNDAY 02/14/2016
SITE   MINT YEAR  LOMAX YEAR
KBLF     5 1971     16 1960
KDAN    15 1986     32 1986
KLYH     4 1899     24 1905
KROA    10 1943     26 1986
KRNK    -2 1969     24 1986

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR VAZ007-009-
     015.
NC...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NCZ001-002-018.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR WVZ042>044-507.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR WVZ042-043-
     508.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR WVZ508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/MBS
NEAR TERM...JH/MBS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...AMS/RAB
AVIATION...JH/MBS/WP
CLIMATE...CF



000
FXUS61 KRNK 121701
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1201 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON BRINGING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR FOLLOWS
THIS SYSTEM OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN VERY WINDY CONDITIONS AND
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH SOME ADDED SNOW SHOWERS
FOR THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO SATURDAY. BY
MONDAY ANOTHER WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM EST FRIDAY...

COLUMN CONTINUING TO SLOWLY MOISTEN AS AXIS OF ISENTROPIC LIFT
SPILLS EAST AHEAD OF THE STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR PASSING TO THE SOUTH. LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO VARY ON JUST HOW FAR EAST ANY OF THESE BANDS WILL MAKE IT WITH
SOME PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SLOPES...WHILE OTHERS
INCLUDING THE WRF-ARW AND TO SOME DEGREE THE HRRR SPILL LIGHT
SNOW EAST TO THE BLUE RIDGE AND POINTS EAST. ALTHOUGH THIS LOOKS
OVERDONE...PERIOD OF BACKING ALOFT MAY BE ENOUGH TO HELP PUSH
LIGHT SNOW FARTHER EAST THAN TYPICAL DOWNSLOPING WOULD ALLOW
ESPCLY WITH THE UPSTREAM TRAILING CHANNELED VORT AXIS SEEN BACK
IN KY. THUS BUMPED UP AMOUNTS A BIT ACROSS THE FAR SW PER CURRENT
TRAJECTORY OF SNOW TO THE WEST AND HEADING OUT EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE FOR AT LEAST A COATING. APPEARS LEAST AMOUNT OF SNOW MAY
OCCUR OVER THE NORTH AS THE TRANSFER OF ENERGY FROM THE MOUNTAINS
TO THE COASTAL DUCKS FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STILL
GOING HEADLINES ON TRACK FOR AN INCH OR SO TODAY OUT WEST AND
COMBINED UPSLOPE OVERNIGHT SO NO CHANGES THERE OTHER THAN TO TWEAK
AMOUNTS. ALSO MADE SOME SLIGHT UPWARD ADJUSTS TO TEMPS MAINLY EAST
WHERE COULD SURGE UP AS A FEW BREAKS DEVELOP AHEAD OF ANY PRECIP
THAT ATTEMPTS TO HEAD EAST OF THE RIDGES. THINK MOST PTYPE EVEN
OUT THERE TO BE SNOW GIVEN COLDNESS ALOFT SO RUNNING WITH MOSTLY
SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS.

WILL NEED TO TAKE A LOOK AT THE WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING BEHIND THE PASSING ARCTIC FRONT AS COULD SEE WARNING
CRITERIA SW BUT WILL AWAIT 12Z GUIDANCE BEFORE UPDATING.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 400 AM EST FRIDAY...

THE MAIN WEATHER PLAYERS FOR OUR REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND SETS
OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
BELIEVE THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION WILL SEE AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW
BEFORE THE UPSLOPE REALLY KICKS IN AND PROVIDES ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
ALONG THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES THROUGH TONIGHT. THE AIR MOVING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT IS QUITE COLD INDEED AND WILL CREATE SOME VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND EVEN A BIT OF CAPE...WHICH MAY BRING US ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR A PERIOD OF THUNDERSNOW EARLY TONIGHT. MESO MODELS ALSO INDICATE
A DECENT UPSTREAM CONTRIBUTION TO THE MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
BELIEVE THESE FACTORS WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
GENERALLY IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES WITH SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE SO WILL ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA
FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO START TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND GOOD MOMENTUM
TRANSFER IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALLOW FOR QUITE A BIT OF WIND
OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH EXPECTED ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO GENERATE WIND CHILL VALUES OF 5 TO 15
BELOW ZERO...WITH READINGS TO 25 BELOW FOR WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY IN
WEST VIRGINIA. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ON SATURDAY BUT THE
COMBINATION OF WIND AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE VERY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE AREA ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH A WIND CHILL WARNING FOR
WESTERN GREENBRIER. CONDITIONS EAST OF THE RIDGE WILL NOT BE QUITE AS
SEVERE AS LOWS TONIGHT REACH THE 15 TO 20 DEGREE RANGE WITH WIND CHILL
VALUES INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EST FRIDAY...

COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON STILL SLATED TO BE SPREADING INTO THE
REGION FOR SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT SUNDAY
MORNING. THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF THE INTENSITY OF THE COLD AIR
MASS JUST SLIGHTLY WITH EACH SUCCEEDING RUN...NOW STOPPING AROUND
-22C ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. SIMILAR EVENTS
THE PAST TWO YEARS HAVE SEEN READINGS CLOSER TO -25/-26C...SO FEEL
CONFIDENT THAT MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL FALL A
COUPLE OF DEGREES SHY OF WHAT WE SAW THE LAST COUPLE OF YEARS WITH
SIMILAR ARCTIC OUTBREAKS. ALSO...SNOW COVER IS LIMITED EAST OF
THE ALLEGHANY FRONT AND THE MOUNTAINS OF SW VA/NW NC...SO THAT
WILL ALSO NOT HELP DRIVE TEMPERATURES TO THE LEVELS WE SAW AROUND
THIS TIME LAST YEAR. NONETHELESS...IT WILL BE BITTERLY COLD AND
VERY WINDY...PROMPTING A CONTINUATION OF THE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND THE WARNING FOR WESTERN GREENBRIER.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
NEAR 0 TO -5F AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THE ADVISORIES/WARNINGS
ARE WARRANTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS IT WILL TAKE VERY
LITTLE FOR WIND CHILLS TO MEET CRITERIA WITH TEMPS THAT LOW.

UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN SATURDAY MORNING
FAIRLY QUICKLY AS THE VERY DRY ARCTIC AIR MASS SPREADS INTO THE
REGION. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS GOING THROUGH MID-DAY...THEN END THEM...ALBEIT SOME
FLURRIES COULD CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS ARCTIC COLD-
ADVECTION SQUEAKS OUT ANY REMAINING MOISTURE. WINDS WILL BE
STRONG AND GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT LIKELY DROP BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THAT
IS LUMPED INTO THE WSW.

THE ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING WITH...AS
NOTED ABOVE...BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES...BUT WINDS TRENDING
TOWARD CALM. BY AFTERNOON...THE ARCTIC HIGH HAS ALREADY SHIFTED
TOWARD THE VA/MD COAST WITH RETURN FLOW EVIDENT ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHWEST VA. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE QUICKLY MOVES TOWARD
THE REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASING MOISTURE FROM TOP
DOWN. THE ANTECEDENT AIR MASS WILL CLEARLY BE VERY DRY AND COLD
AND NOT SURE HOW QUICKLY THE AIR MASS WILL SATURATE TO ALLOW
GENERATED PRECIPITATION ALOFT TO REACH THE GROUND. INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THIS SHOULD BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE AFTER SUNSET IN THE WEST AND
CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT IN THE EAST. THUS...WILL LEAVE THE DAYTIME
HOURS OF SUNDAY DRY WITH POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT. ALL PRECIPITATION
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA AS THE SOUNDINGS
REMAIN BELOW FREEZING AT ALL LEVELS.

AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY...THE SITUATION BECOMES INCREASINGLY
COMPLICATED. THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF
THE REGION EARLY MONDAY...WHILE A STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT
WAVE DEEPENS INTO THE MID-SOUTH. DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
THEN DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THIS SECOND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH...MOVING TOWARD THE EASTERN TN VALLEY BY
MONDAY EVENING. ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE TAKEN A SLIGHT WEST JOG
WITH THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE...RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
WARMER AIR FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TO ENCROACH ON THE REGION.
NONETHELESS...THE ANTECEDENT AIR MASS WILL BE VERY COLD AND MODELS
OFTEN ADVERTISE A WARMUP TOO QUICKLY WITH THIS TYPE OF SITUATION.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...THEN BEGIN
TO LIFT NORTHWARD EARLY TUE. THIS IS WHEN THE P-TYPE ISSUES WILL
BEGIN WITH A TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN AND
PERHAPS EVEN RAIN IN PARTS OF THE PIEDMONT. THIS ENTIRE PERIOD
WILL EVENTUALLY HAVE TO BE HANDLED BY TOP-DOWN OR SIMILAR P-TYPE
PROCEDURES...BUT GIVEN IT IS STILL OUT IN THE DAY 4 AND BEYOND
PERIOD....WILL STICK WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE FOR NOW. ALTHOUGH
SNOW/SLEET/ICE AMOUNTS STILL HIGHLY IN QUESTION...IT STILL APPEARS
QUITE CERTAIN THAT WINTER STORM CRITERIA WILL LIKELY BE MET ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA IN THE SUN NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUE TIME
FRAME...WITH STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THIS
PERIOD WILL LIKELY NEED TO FOLLOW ON THE HEELS OF THE CURRENT
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EST THURSDAY...

A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW...REMAINING MOSTLY INLAND...WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE CWA TUE...MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC BY
EVENING. SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR MUCH
OF THE CWA...BUT POTENTIALLY TRANSITIONING TO RAIN ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. BUFKIT SHOWS CONSIDERABLE VERTICAL MOTION IN THE SNOW
GROWTH ZONE EARLY TUESDAY...SO THERE COULD BE A BURST OF HEAVY
SNOW/SLEET BEFORE THE DRY SLOT SPREADS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND SHUTS OFF THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION...WHICH SHOULD
OCCUR BY MIDDAY TUE. BY EVENING...COLDER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER
BACK INTO THE WESTERN AREAS AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS COMMENCE ONCE
AGAIN.

IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG SYNOPTIC SYSTEM TUESDAY...ANOTHER
CLIPPER IS EVIDENT IN CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL
WARMING OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE LOOKS LIMITED DURING THIS PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS SHOWED SUBSTANTIAL WARMING
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...THAT IS NOT EVIDENT TODAY. MEXMOS KEEPS
WESTERN AREAS MOSTLY AT OR BELOW FREEZING THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH
ONLY LIMITED WARMING DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE
CLIPPER TUE NIGHT/WED...COULD BRING ADDITIONAL MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS TO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA BEFORE MOVING
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. OUTSIDE OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...THAT
SHOULD BE THE LAST OF ANY SYNOPTIC-SCALE INDUCED PRECIPITATION FOR
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1150 AM EST FRIDAY...

LOWER CIGS AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT SNOW BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO HEAD
EAST CROSSING THE BLUE RIDGE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT
IN PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR OVER THE WESTERN SITES AND BRIEF MVFR
ESPCLY AROUND KDAN BY MID AFTERNOON. ONCE THE WINDS TURN MORE
NORTHWEST SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE OVER THE EAST AND RETURN
TO VFR BY EARLY EVENING IF NOT SOONER.

HOWEVER FOR KBCB/KBLF/KLWB THE NWLY WINDS WILL BE UPSLOPE AND
THIS WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS AT THESE LOCATIONS WITH MVFR/IFR
CIGS/VSBYS INTO THIS EVENING AT KBCB...CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AT
KBLF/KLWB. BEHIND THE FRONT ALL SITES WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT WIND
GUSTS AS A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ALLOWS FOR EFFICIENT MOMENTUM
TRANSFER OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT G40-45KT AT KROA
WITH GUSTS AOA 35KT FOR KBCB/KBLF OVERNIGHT.

A GRADUAL RETURN TO VFR APPEARS LIKELY ON SATURDAY ALTHOUGH
KBLF/KLWB LIKELY TO KEEP MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AROUND UNTIL LATE IN
THE DAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG ON SATURDAY WITH GUSTS TO 30-40
KTS LIKELY UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN DURING THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT POOR FLYING WEATHER WILL TAKE PLACE DURING
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING WINTRY
PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT FURTHER UPDATES FROM THE
LONGER RANGE MODELS MAY IMPACT THE DETAILS ON PRECIPITATION TYPE
AND STORM TRACK. ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY
KEEP MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH MAINLY VFR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND. SEVERAL RECORD LOW
MAX TEMPERATURES AND LOW TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE. BELOW ARE THE
CURRENT RECORDS FOR SATURDAY 2/13 AND SUNDAY 2/14.

SATURDAY 02/13/2016
SITE   MINT YEAR  LOMAX YEAR
KBLF     4 1988     19 1988
KDAN    11 1955     32 1981
KLYH     5 1979      9 1899
KROA     8 1917     18 1914
KRNK    -4 1969     14 1955


SUNDAY 02/14/2016
SITE   MINT YEAR  LOMAX YEAR
KBLF     5 1971     16 1960
KDAN    15 1986     32 1986
KLYH     4 1899     24 1905
KROA    10 1943     26 1986
KRNK    -2 1969     24 1986

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR VAZ007-009-
     015.
NC...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NCZ001-002-018.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR WVZ042>044-507.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR WVZ042-043-
     508.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR WVZ508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/MBS
NEAR TERM...JH/MBS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...AMS/RAB
AVIATION...JH/MBS/WP
CLIMATE...CF




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 121543
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1043 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
MORNING...LIFTING NORTHEAST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA
COASTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS YEAR. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALONG A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY JUST OFF THE SC COAST THIS MORNING. RADAR
RETURNS DEPICTING CONVECTION AROUND THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE LOW.
RADAR RETURNS OVER THE LOCAL AREA ARE ELEVATED AND NOT REACHING THE
GROUND AS THE SUB CLOUD LAYER REMAINS QUITE DRY THANKS TO HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...THE LATEST RETURNS
ARE ALREADY INDICATING WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND WILL LIKELY SET
UP...ACROSS SE VA/NE NC. ALOFT...LATEST GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
RAOB PLOTS DEPICT SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE MID MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY.
THIS SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES THRU THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH HEIGHT FALLS FURTHER DEEPENING THE SFC LOW OFF THE SC
COAST. THIS WILL LIKELY PUSH THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND SWWD
SLIGHTLY...WITH THE ADDED DYNAMICS DEEPENING THE MOISTURE FIELDS.
THIS IS HANDLED WELL IN THE BUFR SOUNDINGS AND ISENTROPIC FIELDS.
EXPECT SNOW TO BEGIN FALLING BY LATE MORNING TO AROUND NOON ACROSS
NE NC/EXTREME SE VA...SPREADING NWD THRU EARLY AFTERNOON. STILL
REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF MODEL/ENSEMBLE SPREAD WITH REGARDS TO
QPF...WHICH WILL OF COURSE HAVE IMPACTS ON TOTAL SNOWFALL. TAKING A
BLEND OF THE FAVORED SHORT TERM GUIDANCE STILL YIELDS A QPF FORECAST
SIMILAR TO 24 HOURS AGO. THUS THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OF 10-15:1
SNOWFALL IS STILL FAVORED OVER NE NC AROUND THE ALBEMARLE SOUND.
AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES ARE STILL EXPECTED...WITH SOME BANDING
EXPECTED AS NAM12 DEPICTS BEST FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS THAT REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LOCALIZED 5 INCH
AMOUNTS. AMOUNTS TAPER OFF TO 1 TO 3 INCHES INTO HAMPTON ROADS AND
TOWARDS SOUTHAMPTON AND ISLE OF WIGHT COUNTIES. BASED ON
AFOREMENTIONED QPF DISCREPANCIES...THERE STILL REMAINS A QUESTION OF
HOW FAR NORTH LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE
AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND LIFTS ALONG THE COAST EARLY AFTERNOON.
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AS BETTER FORCING ARRIVES
OVER CENTRAL VA. MOISTURE IS NOT AS DEEP INTO CENTRAL VA...BUT
THERMAL PROFILES/CROSS SECTIONS STILL INDICATE HIGH RH/ICE IN THE
SNOW GROWTH ZONE WITH PLENTY OF OMEGA. BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER LEVELS...STILL THINKING THIS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR LIGHT SNOW
INTO THE TRI-CITIES AND RICHMOND AREA. HOWEVER...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
WILL TAPER OFF TO LESS THAN HALF AN INCH TOWARDS RICHMOND DUE TO
SHORT DURATION. COLD SURFACE/ROADWAYS WILL ALLOW ANY SNOW THAT FALLS
TO ACCUMULATE ON THE ROADWAYS...SO DRIVING WILL STILL BE IMPACTED.
FARTHER NORTHWEST OF RICHMOND COULD SEE JUST A DUSTING.

TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM INTO THE MID 30S TODAY THANKS TO
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP.

SNOW COMES TO AN END THIS EVENG/EARLY TNGT...AS THE SFC LO PUSHES
WELL ENE OF THE MID-ATLC CST AND THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY PUSHES THRU THE
REGION. CLEARING SW TO NE LATE TONIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW/ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE POLAR VORTEX DIGS
OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. ~1040MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE MIDWEST...USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WINDY SAT WITH NW WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO
25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH (STRONGER NEAR THE COAST AND
OVER THE EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS SAT FORECAST TO WARM ONLY INTO THE
MID 20S NW TO LOW 30S SE (-2 STD DEV) UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE IN THE TEENS...RESULTING IN A
RAW/COLD/WINDY DAY. TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS SAT NIGHT. WINDS DECOUPLE INLAND AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...BUT WIND CHILLS STILL FORECAST IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
INLAND TO 0 TO 8 BELOW NRN NECK TO THE ERN SHORE. THE HIGH CENTERS
OVER THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY WITH NLY WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. SLIGHTLY
COLDER SUN WITH DECREASED MIXING. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER
20S (-2 STD DEV) UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ATTENTION
TURNING TO A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. THERE
REMAINS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS...ALTHOUGH
THE 11/12Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING SLOWER...AND WARMER FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. THE 11/12Z GFS CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT PCPN MONDAY AS A NRN STREAM TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WOULD MAINLY FALL AS SN OR SN/IP...WITH A TRANSITION TO
RA CLOSER TO THE COAST BY AFTERNOON. SUBSTANTIAL WARMING ALOFT WOULD
GENERALLY RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO RA MONDAY NIGHT...ASIDE FROM THE
FAR NW WHERE MIXED PCPN COULD PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH AN
IN-SITU WEDGE IN PLACE. THE LATEST DATA SCOURS OUT THE WEDGE BY
AFTERNOON WITH P-TYPE BECOMING RA EVEN IN THE FAR NW. DRYING OCCURS
MIDWEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE
CLIPPING THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
OF COOLER AIR AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS MONDAY WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOW 30S ALONG
AND W OF I-95...WHILE COASTAL LOCATIONS WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOW 40S. TEMPERATURES REMAIN STEADY MONDAY EVENING AND BEGIN TO RISE
OVERNIGHT EVENTUALLY WARMING INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S...FOLLOWED BY
LOW 40S NE...TO UPPER 40S SW THURSDAY. MORNING LOWS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CHALLENGING FORECAST LATER TODAY AS THE LATEST HIGH RES DATA KEEPS
THE FA DRY THRU 18Z AND SHOWS MOST OF THE SGNFCNT MSTR WITH THIS
CSTL LOW HUGS THE OUTER BANKS WITH LTL IN THE WAY OF SPRT/QPF FOR
SGNFCNT ACCUMS ACROSS SERN VA AND POINTS TO THE NW. THUS...VFR
CNDTNS WILL BE MAINTAINED THRU 18Z. BROUGHT SN INTO ECG/ORF AND
PHF ARND 21Z WITH A 2-3 HR PRD OF MDT SNOW PSBL BY 00Z WHICH IS
WHERE ANY ACCUMLS WUD OCCUR. KEPT A SNPL MIX AT ECG AS SNDGS DO
SHOW SOME MARINE INFLUENCES OCCURRING BEFORE PCPN ENDS. LTST DATA
INDCTG THAT MOST PCPN REMAINS EAST OF SBY...BUT DID KEEP A 4 HR
PRD OF LGHT SNOW THERE THIS EVE. DATA ALSO SPRTG A PSBL SNOW SHWR
ACROSS NRN MOST CNTYS WITH THE ACTUAL ARCTIC FRNT AS IT CROSSES
THE RGN TONITE. MVFR CIGS XPCTD WITH THE SNOW BUT IFR VSBYS ARE
LIKELY IN ANY HEAVIER SNOW BANDS. LOW DP TMPS/DRY AIRMASS OVR THE
PIEDMONT SHUD PREVENT ANYTHING MORE THAN SCT FLURRIES AT RIC.

OUTLOOK...GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOP SATURDAY MORNING. VFR AND DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. PCPN DEVELOPS MONDAY AS
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW. PCPN BEGINS AS
SNOW UNDER A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUT THIS BREAKS DOWN AND WARMER
AIR WORKS IN AND CHANGES SNOW TO RAIN FROM SE TO NW.

RAIN CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
DRY WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES TODAY AS THE MARINE AREA WINDS WILL GNRLY BE AOB 15KTS
AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRS PROGGED TO MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THIS LOW WILL NOT BRING ANY WIND RELATED MARINE
HEADLINES...THE ASSCTD PCPN WILL BRING REDUCED VSBYS IN SNOW/SLEET
OF VARYING INTENSITIES LATE THIS AFTRN AND EVE.

AS THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. A NW WIND WILL AVERAGE 25-30KT
WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35-40KT OVER THE OCEAN AND BAY. SEAS BUILD TO
5-8FT WITH 4-5 FT WAVES IN THE BAY. GALE FLAGS HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR
LATE TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND...WIND
SPEEDS HAVE BEEN CAPPED AT HIGH-END SCA AT THIS TIME.

EXPANDED THE FREEZING SPRAY WINDOW TO INCLUDE SAT...SAT NITE AND SUN
MORN GIVEN FCSTD WND SPEEDS / GUSTS COMBINED WITH AIR TMPS BELOW 30
DEGREES. LIMITED THE FREEZING SPRAY TO THE MORE OPEN CHES BAY AND
CSTL WATER AREAS. PER COORD WITH PHL...HOISTED FREEZING SPRAY ADVSRY
FOR THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL. THIS MEANS LIGHT TO MDT ACCUMULATION OF
ICE CAN BE EXPECTED ON VESSELS.

THE WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES
ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FORM THE SW EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE
BLOW-OUT TIDES / LOW WATER ADVISORIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     NCZ012>014.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ015>017-
     030>032-102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ092-
     093-095>098-100-523>525.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ633-635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM/TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KLWX 121511
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1011 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN ITS WAKE FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE
AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY TODAY. HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN
OVERHEAD AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT.

THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
FROM THE WEST. THIS ENERGY WILL COMBINE WITH FORCING ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW
CLIMO...RANGING FROM THE TEENS AND 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
LOWER 30S IN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
CFP TNGT...BRINGING A HOST OF POTL HAZARDS. ISSUES ARE WINDS...
SNOW... AND WIND CHILL.

SNOW...PARAMETERS LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW
COINCIDENT W/ THE FNT TNGT.  SCALE OF THREAT LKLY FINER THAN
GDNC...SO AM ABV MOS. ACCUMS WUD BE UNDER AN INCH...AND WUD BE ONT
HE ERN SHORE BEFORE MIDNGT.

IN THE MTNS...THE TRAJ FVRBL FOR UPSLP TNGT-SAT...AND THE DRY AMS
WUD LEAD TO A HIGH SNOW RATIO. THIS WL ACCUM SVRL INCHES. HWVR...AM
JUST UNDER ADVY CRITERIA...WHICH IS SOMEWHAT FITTING SINCE SNOW
GROWTH ZONE LOW...AND NOT INTERSECTING THE BEST LIFT.

WINDS...ATMOS WL BE WELL MIXED IN STRONG CAA POST-FRONT. MDL SNDGS
SUGGEST 30-SOMETHING KT GUSTS. WUDNT RULE OUT A FEW 40 KTS.
CONFIDENCE NOT QUITE THERE FOR WIND ADVYS. ADMITTEDLY ITS CLOSE FOR
THE MTNS.

TEMPS...CONTINING TEMP FCSTS ON THE LOW END OF GDNC...BOTH MIN-T
TNGT AND MAXT SAT.

WIND CHILLS...COMBINE THE PREV TWO BULLETS...AND WIND CHILLS WL
DEFINITELY BE A FACTOR. BEST CHC AT ADVY IN THE MTNS. IT FALLS ABT 5-
10 DEGF SHORT ELSW. PROJECTING ONWARD THOUGH...THE MTNS ALMOST
THREATEN WIND CHILL WARNING CRITERIA...SPCLY SAT NGT INTO SUN.
ELSW...FCST VALUES FLIRT W/ ADVY CRITERIA SAT NGT-SUN. MINDFUL THAT
WE/RE SVRL CYCLES OUT...AND NOTHING SEEMS SLAM-DUNK OTHER THAN WIND
CHILL ADVYS IN THE MTNS...WUD RATHER NOT MAKE FIRM WRNG/ADVY
DECISION YET. COGNIZANT OF THE THREAT THO...WL BE ISSUING WIND CHILL
WATCHES FOR THE MTNS...WHERE VALUES ARE THE LOWEST. OTHER COUNTIES
WL BE CARRIED IN THE HWO. HOPEFULLY...LATER SHIFTS WL BE ABLE TO
MAKE BETTER-INFORMED DECISIONS.

BY SUN...THE RDG WL BE OVERHEAD...AND THE ONLY HAZARD LEFT WL BE
COLD TEMPS.  MAY HV PCPN RETURNING LT SUN NGT AHD OF NXT SYSTEM. HV
CHCS TO COVER. MORE IN LONG TERM DSCN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
RETREATING QUICKLY ON MON WITH MOISTURE ADVANCING QUICKLY NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF A SRN STREAM SYSTEM FOR A POTENTIAL BIG MESS MON-TUE WITH
HEAVY PRECIP AMOUNTS. POTENTIAL FOR 6+ INCHES OF SNOW APPEARS TO BE
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WITH SIGNIFICANT ICING FROM
THERE TO THE ROUTE 15 CORRIDOR AND LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP TO MOSTLY
RAIN EAST OF THERE. THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN MODELS TO
BRING SFC TEMPS ABV FREEZING EVERYWHERE BY 18Z TUE WITH 50S POSSIBLE
OVER EASTERN AREAS AS H85 TEMPS CLIMB ABV 5C AS STRONG SRLY WINDS
DEVELOP. IN ADDITION TO WINTRY PRECIP CONCERNS...LATEST 00Z ECMWF
INDICATES HEAVY PRECIP AMOUNTS UP TO 3.5 INCHES WATER EQUIVALENT
WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLOODING ISSUES. WARMER TEMPS...RUNOFF AND
SNOWMELT COULD LEAD TO ICE JAM FLOODING PROBLEMS ESPECIALLY AFTER
THIS WEEKEND`S FRIGID AIR MASS.

BY MID WEEK...SRN STREAM SYSTEM MERGES/PHASES WITH A NRN STREAM
DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH SYSTEM INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
LEADING TO STRONG NW FLOW AND DRYING CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY. CDFNT COMING THIS
EVNG...PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHSN. AREAL CVRG/CONFIDENCE IN
A PT FCST THE CONCERN. THUS...THESE DO NOT APPEAR IN TAFS ATTM.
WUD HV BREIF IFR IF AIRFIELD AFFECTED.

WINDS BECOME NW AND PICK UP POST-FRONT...WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE MID
30S AFTR MIDNGT TNGT THRU SAT AFTN.

HIPRES BLDS SAT NGT-SUN. WINDS GRDLY DIMINISHING. NO OTHER
RESTRICTIONS ANTICIPATED.

SIG WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE REGION MON-TUE WITH HEAVY WINTRY
PRECIP MON-MON NIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ESPECIALLY AT
KCHO...KIAD AND KMRB BEFORE IT TURNS TO ALL RAIN TUE AFTERNOON. IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY MON-TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CDFNT
COMING TNGT...PRODUCING NW WINDS W/ 30-40KT GUSTS. THREAT WUD LKLY
BEGIN ARND/JUST AFTR MIDNGT. FOR SIMPLICITY...HV RAISED GLW
TNGT...AND CARRIED IT THRU SAT NGT. SCA LKLY ON SUN... WHICH CAN
BE ADDRESSED LATER.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     MDZ501-502.
VA...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     VAZ503-504.
WV...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     WVZ501>506.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ530>543.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...BJL/HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...BJL/LFR/HTS
MARINE...BJL/LFR/HTS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 121506
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1006 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON BRINGING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR FOLLOWS
THIS SYSTEM OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN VERY WINDY CONDITIONS AND
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH SOME ADDED SNOW SHOWERS
FOR THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO SATURDAY. BY
MONDAY ANOTHER WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM EST FRIDAY...

COLUMN CONTINUING TO SLOWLY MOISTEN AS AXIS OF ISENTROPIC LIFT
SPILLS EAST AHEAD OF THE STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR PASSING TO THE SOUTH. LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO VARY ON JUST HOW FAR EAST ANY OF THESE BANDS WILL MAKE IT WITH
SOME PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SLOPES...WHILE OTHERS
INCLUDING THE WRF-ARW AND TO SOME DEGREE THE HRRR SPILL LIGHT
SNOW EAST TO THE BLUE RIDGE. ALTHOUGH THIS LOOKS
OVERDONE...PERIOD OF BACKING ALOFT MAY BE ENOUGH TO HELP PUSH
LIGHT SNOW FARTHER EAST THAN TYPICAL DOWNSLOPING WOULD ALLOW
ESPCLY WITH THE UPSTREAM TRAILING CHANNELED VORT AXIS SEEN BACK
IN KY. THUS BUMPED UP AMOUNTS A BIT ACROSS THE FAR SW PER CURRENT
TRAJECTORY OF SNOW TO THE WEST AND HEADING OUT TO THE BLUE RIDGE
FOR AT LEAST A COATING. APPEARS LEAST AMOUNT OF SNOW MAY OCCUR
OVER THE NORTH AS THE TRANSFER OF ENERGY FROM THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
COASTAL DUCKS FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STILL GOING
HEADLINES ON TRACK FOR AN INCH OR SO TODAY OUT WEST AND COMBINED
UPSLOPE OVERNIGHT SO NO CHANGES THERE OTHER THAN TO TWEAK AMOUNTS.
ALSO MADE SOME SLIGHT UPWARD ADJUSTS TO TEMPS MAINLY EAST WHERE
COULD SURGE UP AS A FEW BREAKS DEVELOP AHEAD OF ANY PRECIP THAT
ATTEMPTS TO HEAD EAST OF THE RIDGES. THINK MOST PTYPE EVEN OUT
THERE TO BE SNOW GIVEN COLDNESS ALOFT SO RUNNING WITH MOSTLY
SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS.

WILL NEED TO TAKE A LOOK AT THE WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING BEHIND THE PASSING ARCTIC FRONT AS COULD SEE WARNING
CRITERIA SW BUT WILL AWAIT 12Z GUIDANCE BEFORE UPDATING.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 400 AM EST FRIDAY...

THE MAIN WEATHER PLAYERS FOR OUR REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND SETS
OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
BELIEVE THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION WILL SEE AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW
BEFORE THE UPSLOPE REALLY KICKS IN AND PROVIDES ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
ALONG THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES THROUGH TONIGHT. THE AIR MOVING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT IS QUITE COLD INDEED AND WILL CREATE SOME VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND EVEN A BIT OF CAPE...WHICH MAY BRING US ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR A PERIOD OF THUNDERSNOW EARLY TONIGHT. MESO MODELS ALSO INDICATE
A DECENT UPSTREAM CONTRIBUTION TO THE MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
BELIEVE THESE FACTORS WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
GENERALLY IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES WITH SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE SO WILL ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA
FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO START TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND GOOD MOMENTUM
TRANSFER IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALLOW FOR QUITE A BIT OF WIND
OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH EXPECTED ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO GENERATE WIND CHILL VALUES OF 5 TO 15
BELOW ZERO...WITH READINGS TO 25 BELOW FOR WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY IN
WEST VIRGINIA. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ON SATURDAY BUT THE
COMBINATION OF WIND AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE VERY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE AREA ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH A WIND CHILL WARNING FOR
WESTERN GREENBRIER. CONDITIONS EAST OF THE RIDGE WILL NOT BE QUITE AS
SEVERE AS LOWS TONIGHT REACH THE 15 TO 20 DEGREE RANGE WITH WIND CHILL
VALUES INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EST FRIDAY...

COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON STILL SLATED TO BE SPREADING INTO THE
REGION FOR SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT SUNDAY
MORNING. THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF THE INTENSITY OF THE COLD AIR
MASS JUST SLIGHTLY WITH EACH SUCCEEDING RUN...NOW STOPPING AROUND
-22C ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. SIMILAR EVENTS
THE PAST TWO YEARS HAVE SEEN READINGS CLOSER TO -25/-26C...SO FEEL
CONFIDENT THAT MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL FALL A
COUPLE OF DEGREES SHY OF WHAT WE SAW THE LAST COUPLE OF YEARS WITH
SIMILAR ARCTIC OUTBREAKS. ALSO...SNOW COVER IS LIMITED EAST OF
THE ALLEGHANY FRONT AND THE MOUNTAINS OF SW VA/NW NC...SO THAT
WILL ALSO NOT HELP DRIVE TEMPERATURES TO THE LEVELS WE SAW AROUND
THIS TIME LAST YEAR. NONETHELESS...IT WILL BE BITTERLY COLD AND
VERY WINDY...PROMPTING A CONTINUATION OF THE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND THE WARNING FOR WESTERN GREENBRIER.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
NEAR 0 TO -5F AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THE ADVISORIES/WARNINGS
ARE WARRANTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS IT WILL TAKE VERY
LITTLE FOR WIND CHILLS TO MEET CRITERIA WITH TEMPS THAT LOW.

UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN SATURDAY MORNING
FAIRLY QUICKLY AS THE VERY DRY ARCTIC AIR MASS SPREADS INTO THE
REGION. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS GOING THROUGH MID-DAY...THEN END THEM...ALBEIT SOME
FLURRIES COULD CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS ARCTIC COLD-
ADVECTION SQUEAKS OUT ANY REMAINING MOISTURE. WINDS WILL BE
STRONG AND GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT LIKELY DROP BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THAT
IS LUMPED INTO THE WSW.

THE ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING WITH...AS
NOTED ABOVE...BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES...BUT WINDS TRENDING
TOWARD CALM. BY AFTERNOON...THE ARCTIC HIGH HAS ALREADY SHIFTED
TOWARD THE VA/MD COAST WITH RETURN FLOW EVIDENT ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHWEST VA. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE QUICKLY MOVES TOWARD
THE REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASING MOISTURE FROM TOP
DOWN. THE ANTECEDENT AIR MASS WILL CLEARLY BE VERY DRY AND COLD
AND NOT SURE HOW QUICKLY THE AIR MASS WILL SATURATE TO ALLOW
GENERATED PRECIPITATION ALOFT TO REACH THE GROUND. INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THIS SHOULD BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE AFTER SUNSET IN THE WEST AND
CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT IN THE EAST. THUS...WILL LEAVE THE DAYTIME
HOURS OF SUNDAY DRY WITH POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT. ALL PRECIPITATION
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA AS THE SOUNDINGS
REMAIN BELOW FREEZING AT ALL LEVELS.

AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY...THE SITUATION BECOMES INCREASINGLY
COMPLICATED. THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF
THE REGION EARLY MONDAY...WHILE A STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT
WAVE DEEPENS INTO THE MID-SOUTH. DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
THEN DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THIS SECOND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH...MOVING TOWARD THE EASTERN TN VALLEY BY
MONDAY EVENING. ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE TAKEN A SLIGHT WEST JOG
WITH THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE...RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
WARMER AIR FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TO ENCROACH ON THE REGION.
NONETHELESS...THE ANTECEDENT AIR MASS WILL BE VERY COLD AND MODELS
OFTEN ADVERTISE A WARMUP TOO QUICKLY WITH THIS TYPE OF SITUATION.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...THEN BEGIN
TO LIFT NORTHWARD EARLY TUE. THIS IS WHEN THE P-TYPE ISSUES WILL
BEGIN WITH A TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN AND
PERHAPS EVEN RAIN IN PARTS OF THE PIEDMONT. THIS ENTIRE PERIOD
WILL EVENTUALLY HAVE TO BE HANDLED BY TOP-DOWN OR SIMILAR P-TYPE
PROCEDURES...BUT GIVEN IT IS STILL OUT IN THE DAY 4 AND BEYOND
PERIOD....WILL STICK WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE FOR NOW. ALTHOUGH
SNOW/SLEET/ICE AMOUNTS STILL HIGHLY IN QUESTION...IT STILL APPEARS
QUITE CERTAIN THAT WINTER STORM CRITERIA WILL LIKELY BE MET ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA IN THE SUN NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUE TIME
FRAME...WITH STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THIS
PERIOD WILL LIKELY NEED TO FOLLOW ON THE HEELS OF THE CURRENT
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EST THURSDAY...

A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW...REMAINING MOSTLY INLAND...WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE CWA TUE...MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC BY
EVENING. SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR MUCH
OF THE CWA...BUT POTENTIALLY TRANSITIONING TO RAIN ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. BUFKIT SHOWS CONSIDERABLE VERTICAL MOTION IN THE SNOW
GROWTH ZONE EARLY TUESDAY...SO THERE COULD BE A BURST OF HEAVY
SNOW/SLEET BEFORE THE DRY SLOT SPREADS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND SHUTS OFF THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION...WHICH SHOULD
OCCUR BY MIDDAY TUE. BY EVENING...COLDER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER
BACK INTO THE WESTERN AREAS AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS COMMENCE ONCE
AGAIN.

IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG SYNOPTIC SYSTEM TUESDAY...ANOTHER
CLIPPER IS EVIDENT IN CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL
WARMING OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE LOOKS LIMITED DURING THIS PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS SHOWED SUBSTANTIAL WARMING
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...THAT IS NOT EVIDENT TODAY. MEXMOS KEEPS
WESTERN AREAS MOSTLY AT OR BELOW FREEZING THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH
ONLY LIMITED WARMING DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE
CLIPPER TUE NIGHT/WED...COULD BRING ADDITIONAL MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS TO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA BEFORE MOVING
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. OUTSIDE OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...THAT
SHOULD BE THE LAST OF ANY SYNOPTIC-SCALE INDUCED PRECIPITATION FOR
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM EST FRIDAY...

DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WILL BRING NELY WINDS AND MAYBE A FLURRY TO KDAN
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT THIS LOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE A MAJOR
IMPACT ON TAF SITES. HOWEVER...THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE AND COLD
FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO ALL TAF SITES
STARTING MID/LATE MORNING. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND
A TEMPO MVFR CIG MAY AFFECT KROA/KLYH/KDAN BUT FROPA WILL BRING NWLY
WINDS AND DOWNSLOPE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF
THE PERIOD. FOR KBCB/KBLF/KLWB THE NWLY WINDS WILL BE UPSLOPE AND THIS
WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS AT THESE LOCATIONS WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS.
BEHIND THE FRONT ALL SITES WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT WIND GUSTS AS A WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ALLOWS FOR EFFICIENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF
INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT G40KT AT KROA WITH GUSTS AOA 30KT FOR
KBCB/KLWB/KBLF.


EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

EXPECT VFR SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SUBSIDING
WINDS...THOUGH SOME MVFR INTO SAT NIGHT POSSIBLE AT BLF.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT POOR FLYING WEATHER WILL TAKE PLACE
DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING WINTRY
PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT FURTHER UPDATES FROM THE
LONGER RANGE MODELS MAY IMPACT THE DETAILS ON PRECIPITATION TYPE
AND STORM TRACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND. SEVERAL RECORD LOW
MAX TEMPERATURES AND LOW TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE. BELOW ARE THE
CURRENT RECORDS FOR SATURDAY 2/13 AND SUNDAY 2/14.

SATURDAY 02/13/2016
SITE   MINT YEAR  LOMAX YEAR
KBLF     4 1988     19 1988
KDAN    11 1955     32 1981
KLYH     5 1979      9 1899
KROA     8 1917     18 1914
KRNK    -4 1969     14 1955


SUNDAY 02/14/2016
SITE   MINT YEAR  LOMAX YEAR
KBLF     5 1971     16 1960
KDAN    15 1986     32 1986
KLYH     4 1899     24 1905
KROA    10 1943     26 1986
KRNK    -2 1969     24 1986

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR VAZ007-009-
     015.
NC...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NCZ001-002-018.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR WVZ042>044-507.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR WVZ042-043-
     508.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR WVZ508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/MBS
NEAR TERM...JH/MBS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...AMS/RAB
AVIATION...MBS/WP
CLIMATE...CF




000
FXUS61 KRNK 121410
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
910 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND BRING
WINDY CONDITIONS AND BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION...ALONG
WITH SOME SNOW FOR THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS...THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. BY MONDAY ANOTHER WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT
THE REGION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST FRIDAY...

THE MAIN WEATHER PLAYERS FOR OUR REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND SETS
OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
BELIEVE THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION WILL SEE AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW
BEFORE THE UPSLOPE REALLY KICKS IN AND PROVIDES ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
ALONG THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES THROUGH TONIGHT. THE AIR MOVING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT IS QUITE COLD INDEED AND WILL CREATE SOME VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND EVEN A BIT OF CAPE...WHICH MAY BRING US ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR A PERIOD OF THUNDERSNOW EARLY TONIGHT. MESO MODELS ALSO INDICATE
A DECENT UPSTREAM CONTRIBUTION TO THE MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
BELIEVE THESE FACTORS WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
GENERALLY IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES WITH SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE SO WILL ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA
FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO START TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND GOOD MOMENTUM
TRANSFER IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALLOW FOR QUITE A BIT OF WIND
OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH EXPECTED ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO GENERATE WIND CHILL VALUES OF 5 TO 15
BELOW ZERO...WITH READINGS TO 25 BELOW FOR WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY IN
WEST VIRGINIA. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ON SATURDAY BUT THE
COMBINATION OF WIND AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE VERY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE AREA ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH A WIND CHILL WARNING FOR
WESTERN GREENBRIER. CONDITIONS EAST OF THE RIDGE WILL NOT BE QUITE AS
SEVERE AS LOWS TONIGHT REACH THE 15 TO 20 DEGREE RANGE WITH WIND CHILL
VALUES INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EST FRIDAY...

COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON STILL SLATED TO BE SPREADING INTO THE
REGION FOR SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT SUNDAY
MORNING. THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF THE INTENSITY OF THE COLD AIR
MASS JUST SLIGHTLY WITH EACH SUCCEEDING RUN...NOW STOPPING AROUND
-22C ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. SIMILAR EVENTS
THE PAST TWO YEARS HAVE SEEN READINGS CLOSER TO -25/-26C...SO FEEL
CONFIDENT THAT MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL FALL A
COUPLE OF DEGREES SHY OF WHAT WE SAW THE LAST COUPLE OF YEARS WITH
SIMILAR ARCTIC OUTBREAKS. ALSO...SNOW COVER IS LIMITED EAST OF
THE ALLEGHANY FRONT AND THE MOUNTAINS OF SW VA/NW NC...SO THAT
WILL ALSO NOT HELP DRIVE TEMPERATURES TO THE LEVELS WE SAW AROUND
THIS TIME LAST YEAR. NONETHELESS...IT WILL BE BITTERLY COLD AND
VERY WINDY...PROMPTING A CONTINUATION OF THE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND THE WARNING FOR WESTERN GREENBRIER.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
NEAR 0 TO -5F AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THE ADVISORIES/WARNINGS
ARE WARRANTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS IT WILL TAKE VERY
LITTLE FOR WIND CHILLS TO MEET CRITERIA WITH TEMPS THAT LOW.

UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN SATURDAY MORNING
FAIRLY QUICKLY AS THE VERY DRY ARCTIC AIR MASS SPREADS INTO THE
REGION. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS GOING THROUGH MID-DAY...THEN END THEM...ALBEIT SOME
FLURRIES COULD CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS ARCTIC COLD-
ADVECTION SQUEAKS OUT ANY REMAINING MOISTURE. WINDS WILL BE
STRONG AND GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT LIKELY DROP BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THAT
IS LUMPED INTO THE WSW.

THE ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING WITH...AS
NOTED ABOVE...BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES...BUT WINDS TRENDING
TOWARD CALM. BY AFTERNOON...THE ARCTIC HIGH HAS ALREADY SHIFTED
TOWARD THE VA/MD COAST WITH RETURN FLOW EVIDENT ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHWEST VA. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE QUICKLY MOVES TOWARD
THE REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASING MOISTURE FROM TOP
DOWN. THE ANTECEDENT AIR MASS WILL CLEARLY BE VERY DRY AND COLD
AND NOT SURE HOW QUICKLY THE AIR MASS WILL SATURATE TO ALLOW
GENERATED PRECIPITATION ALOFT TO REACH THE GROUND. INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THIS SHOULD BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE AFTER SUNSET IN THE WEST AND
CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT IN THE EAST. THUS...WILL LEAVE THE DAYTIME
HOURS OF SUNDAY DRY WITH POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT. ALL PRECIPITATION
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA AS THE SOUNDINGS
REMAIN BELOW FREEZING AT ALL LEVELS.

AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY...THE SITUATION BECOMES INCREASINGLY
COMPLICATED. THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF
THE REGION EARLY MONDAY...WHILE A STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT
WAVE DEEPENS INTO THE MID-SOUTH. DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
THEN DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THIS SECOND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH...MOVING TOWARD THE EASTERN TN VALLEY BY
MONDAY EVENING. ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE TAKEN A SLIGHT WEST JOG
WITH THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE...RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
WARMER AIR FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TO ENCROACH ON THE REGION.
NONETHELESS...THE ANTECEDENT AIR MASS WILL BE VERY COLD AND MODELS
OFTEN ADVERTISE A WARMUP TOO QUICKLY WITH THIS TYPE OF SITUATION.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...THEN BEGIN
TO LIFT NORTHWARD EARLY TUE. THIS IS WHEN THE P-TYPE ISSUES WILL
BEGIN WITH A TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN AND
PERHAPS EVEN RAIN IN PARTS OF THE PIEDMONT. THIS ENTIRE PERIOD
WILL EVENTUALLY HAVE TO BE HANDLED BY TOP-DOWN OR SIMILAR P-TYPE
PROCEDURES...BUT GIVEN IT IS STILL OUT IN THE DAY 4 AND BEYOND
PERIOD....WILL STICK WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE FOR NOW. ALTHOUGH
SNOW/SLEET/ICE AMOUNTS STILL HIGHLY IN QUESTION...IT STILL APPEARS
QUITE CERTAIN THAT WINTER STORM CRITERIA WILL LIKELY BE MET ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA IN THE SUN NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUE TIME
FRAME...WITH STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THIS
PERIOD WILL LIKELY NEED TO FOLLOW ON THE HEELS OF THE CURRENT
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EST THURSDAY...

A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW...REMAINING MOSTLY INLAND...WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE CWA TUE...MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC BY
EVENING. SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR MUCH
OF THE CWA...BUT POTENTIALLY TRANSITIONING TO RAIN ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. BUFKIT SHOWS CONSIDERABLE VERTICAL MOTION IN THE SNOW
GROWTH ZONE EARLY TUESDAY...SO THERE COULD BE A BURST OF HEAVY
SNOW/SLEET BEFORE THE DRY SLOT SPREADS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND SHUTS OFF THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION...WHICH SHOULD
OCCUR BY MIDDAY TUE. BY EVENING...COLDER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER
BACK INTO THE WESTERN AREAS AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS COMMENCE ONCE
AGAIN.

IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG SYNOPTIC SYSTEM TUESDAY...ANOTHER
CLIPPER IS EVIDENT IN CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL
WARMING OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE LOOKS LIMITED DURING THIS PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS SHOWED SUBSTANTIAL WARMING
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...THAT IS NOT EVIDENT TODAY. MEXMOS KEEPS
WESTERN AREAS MOSTLY AT OR BELOW FREEZING THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH
ONLY LIMITED WARMING DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE
CLIPPER TUE NIGHT/WED...COULD BRING ADDITIONAL MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS TO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA BEFORE MOVING
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. OUTSIDE OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...THAT
SHOULD BE THE LAST OF ANY SYNOPTIC-SCALE INDUCED PRECIPITATION FOR
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM EST FRIDAY...

DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WILL BRING NELY WINDS AND MAYBE A FLURRY TO KDAN
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT THIS LOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE A MAJOR
IMPACT ON TAF SITES. HOWEVER...THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE AND COLD
FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO ALL TAF SITES
STARTING MID/LATE MORNING. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND
A TEMPO MVFR CIG MAY AFFECT KROA/KLYH/KDAN BUT FROPA WILL BRING NWLY
WINDS AND DOWNSLOPE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF
THE PERIOD. FOR KBCB/KBLF/KLWB THE NWLY WINDS WILL BE UPSLOPE AND THIS
WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS AT THESE LOCATIONS WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS.
BEHIND THE FRONT ALL SITES WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT WIND GUSTS AS A WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ALLOWS FOR EFFICIENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF
INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT G40KT AT KROA WITH GUSTS AOA 30KT FOR
KBCB/KLWB/KBLF.


EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

EXPECT VFR SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SUBSIDING
WINDS...THOUGH SOME MVFR INTO SAT NIGHT POSSIBLE AT BLF.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT POOR FLYING WEATHER WILL TAKE PLACE
DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING WINTRY
PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT FURTHER UPDATES FROM THE
LONGER RANGE MODELS MAY IMPACT THE DETAILS ON PRECIPITATION TYPE
AND STORM TRACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND. SEVERAL RECORD LOW
MAX TEMPERATURES AND LOW TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE. BELOW ARE THE
CURRENT RECORDS FOR SATURDAY 2/13 AND SUNDAY 2/14.

SATURDAY 02/13/2016
SITE   MINT YEAR  LOMAX YEAR
KBLF     4 1988     19 1988
KDAN    11 1955     32 1981
KLYH     5 1979      9 1899
KROA     8 1917     18 1914
KRNK    -4 1969     14 1955


SUNDAY 02/14/2016
SITE   MINT YEAR  LOMAX YEAR
KBLF     5 1971     16 1960
KDAN    15 1986     32 1986
KLYH     4 1899     24 1905
KROA    10 1943     26 1986
KRNK    -2 1969     24 1986

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR VAZ007-009-
     015.
NC...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NCZ001-002-018.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR WVZ042>044-507.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR WVZ042-043-
     508.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR WVZ508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...AMS/RAB
AVIATION...MBS/WP
CLIMATE...CF




000
FXUS61 KRNK 121158
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
658 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND BRING
WINDY CONDITIONS AND BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION...ALONG
WITH SOME SNOW FOR THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS...THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. BY MONDAY ANOTHER WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT
THE REGION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST FRIDAY...

THE MAIN WEATHER PLAYERS FOR OUR REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND SETS
OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
BELIEVE THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION WILL SEE AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW
BEFORE THE UPSLOPE REALLY KICKS IN AND PROVIDES ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
ALONG THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES THROUGH TONIGHT. THE AIR MOVING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT IS QUITE COLD INDEED AND WILL CREATE SOME VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND EVEN A BIT OF CAPE...WHICH MAY BRING US ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR A PERIOD OF THUNDERSNOW EARLY TONIGHT. MESO MODELS ALSO INDICATE
A DECENT UPSTREAM CONTRIBUTION TO THE MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
BELIEVE THESE FACTORS WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
GENERALLY IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES WITH SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE SO WILL ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA
FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO START TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND GOOD MOMENTUM
TRANSFER IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALLOW FOR QUITE A BIT OF WIND
OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH EXPECTED ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO GENERATE WIND CHILL VALUES OF 5 TO 15
BELOW ZERO...WITH READINGS TO 25 BELOW FOR WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY IN
WEST VIRGINIA. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ON SATURDAY BUT THE
COMBINATION OF WIND AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE VERY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE AREA ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH A WIND CHILL WARNING FOR
WESTERN GREENBRIER. CONDITIONS EAST OF THE RIDGE WILL NOT BE QUITE AS
SEVERE AS LOWS TONIGHT REACH THE 15 TO 20 DEGREE RANGE WITH WIND CHILL
VALUES INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EST FRIDAY...

COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON STILL SLATED TO BE SPREADING INTO THE
REGION FOR SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT SUNDAY
MORNING. THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF THE INTENSITY OF THE COLD AIR
MASS JUST SLIGHTLY WITH EACH SUCCEEDING RUN...NOW STOPPING AROUND
-22C ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. SIMILAR EVENTS
THE PAST TWO YEARS HAVE SEEN READINGS CLOSER TO -25/-26C...SO FEEL
CONFIDENT THAT MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL FALL A
COUPLE OF DEGREES SHY OF WHAT WE SAW THE LAST COUPLE OF YEARS WITH
SIMILAR ARCTIC OUTBREAKS. ALSO...SNOW COVER IS LIMITED EAST OF
THE ALLEGHANY FRONT AND THE MOUNTAINS OF SW VA/NW NC...SO THAT
WILL ALSO NOT HELP DRIVE TEMPERATURES TO THE LEVELS WE SAW AROUND
THIS TIME LAST YEAR. NONETHELESS...IT WILL BE BITTERLY COLD AND
VERY WINDY...PROMPTING A CONTINUATION OF THE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND THE WARNING FOR WESTERN GREENBRIER.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
NEAR 0 TO -5F AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THE ADVISORIES/WARNINGS
ARE WARRANTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS IT WILL TAKE VERY
LITTLE FOR WIND CHILLS TO MEET CRITERIA WITH TEMPS THAT LOW.

UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN SATURDAY MORNING
FAIRLY QUICKLY AS THE VERY DRY ARCTIC AIR MASS SPREADS INTO THE
REGION. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS GOING THROUGH MID-DAY...THEN END THEM...ALBEIT SOME
FLURRIES COULD CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS ARCTIC COLD-
ADVECTION SQUEAKS OUT ANY REMAINING MOISTURE. WINDS WILL BE
STRONG AND GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT LIKELY DROP BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THAT
IS LUMPED INTO THE WSW.

THE ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING WITH...AS
NOTED ABOVE...BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES...BUT WINDS TRENDING
TOWARD CALM. BY AFTERNOON...THE ARCTIC HIGH HAS ALREADY SHIFTED
TOWARD THE VA/MD COAST WITH RETURN FLOW EVIDENT ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHWEST VA. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE QUICKLY MOVES TOWARD
THE REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASING MOISTURE FROM TOP
DOWN. THE ANTECEDENT AIR MASS WILL CLEARLY BE VERY DRY AND COLD
AND NOT SURE HOW QUICKLY THE AIR MASS WILL SATURATE TO ALLOW
GENERATED PRECIPITATION ALOFT TO REACH THE GROUND. INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THIS SHOULD BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE AFTER SUNSET IN THE WEST AND
CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT IN THE EAST. THUS...WILL LEAVE THE DAYTIME
HOURS OF SUNDAY DRY WITH POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT. ALL PRECIPITATION
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA AS THE SOUNDINGS
REMAIN BELOW FREEZING AT ALL LEVELS.

AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY...THE SITUATION BECOMES INCREASINGLY
COMPLICATED. THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF
THE REGION EARLY MONDAY...WHILE A STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT
WAVE DEEPENS INTO THE MID-SOUTH. DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
THEN DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THIS SECOND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH...MOVING TOWARD THE EASTERN TN VALLEY BY
MONDAY EVENING. ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE TAKEN A SLIGHT WEST JOG
WITH THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE...RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
WARMER AIR FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TO ENCROACH ON THE REGION.
NONETHELESS...THE ANTECEDENT AIR MASS WILL BE VERY COLD AND MODELS
OFTEN ADVERTISE A WARMUP TOO QUICKLY WITH THIS TYPE OF SITUATION.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...THEN BEGIN
TO LIFT NORTHWARD EARLY TUE. THIS IS WHEN THE P-TYPE ISSUES WILL
BEGIN WITH A TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN AND
PERHAPS EVEN RAIN IN PARTS OF THE PIEDMONT. THIS ENTIRE PERIOD
WILL EVENTUALLY HAVE TO BE HANDLED BY TOP-DOWN OR SIMILAR P-TYPE
PROCEDURES...BUT GIVEN IT IS STILL OUT IN THE DAY 4 AND BEYOND
PERIOD....WILL STICK WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE FOR NOW. ALTHOUGH
SNOW/SLEET/ICE AMOUNTS STILL HIGHLY IN QUESTION...IT STILL APPEARS
QUITE CERTAIN THAT WINTER STORM CRITERIA WILL LIKELY BE MET ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA IN THE SUN NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUE TIME
FRAME...WITH STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THIS
PERIOD WILL LIKELY NEED TO FOLLOW ON THE HEELS OF THE CURRENT
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EST THURSDAY...

A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW...REMAINING MOSTLY INLAND...WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE CWA TUE...MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC BY
EVENING. SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR MUCH
OF THE CWA...BUT POTENTIALLY TRANSITIONING TO RAIN ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. BUFKIT SHOWS CONSIDERABLE VERTICAL MOTION IN THE SNOW
GROWTH ZONE EARLY TUESDAY...SO THERE COULD BE A BURST OF HEAVY
SNOW/SLEET BEFORE THE DRY SLOT SPREADS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND SHUTS OFF THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION...WHICH SHOULD
OCCUR BY MIDDAY TUE. BY EVENING...COLDER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER
BACK INTO THE WESTERN AREAS AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS COMMENCE ONCE
AGAIN.

IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG SYNOPTIC SYSTEM TUESDAY...ANOTHER
CLIPPER IS EVIDENT IN CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL
WARMING OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE LOOKS LIMITED DURING THIS PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS SHOWED SUBSTANTIAL WARMING
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...THAT IS NOT EVIDENT TODAY. MEXMOS KEEPS
WESTERN AREAS MOSTLY AT OR BELOW FREEZING THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH
ONLY LIMITED WARMING DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE
CLIPPER TUE NIGHT/WED...COULD BRING ADDITIONAL MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS TO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA BEFORE MOVING
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. OUTSIDE OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...THAT
SHOULD BE THE LAST OF ANY SYNOPTIC-SCALE INDUCED PRECIPITATION FOR
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM EST FRIDAY...

DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WILL BRING NELY WINDS AND MAYBE A FLURRY TO KDAN
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT THIS LOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE A MAJOR
IMPACT ON TAF SITES. HOWEVER...THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE AND COLD
FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO ALL TAF SITES
STARTING MID/LATE MORNING. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND
A TEMPO MVFR CIG MAY AFFECT KROA/KLYH/KDAN BUT FROPA WILL BRING NWLY
WINDS AND DOWNSLOPE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF
THE PERIOD. FOR KBCB/KBLF/KLWB THE NWLY WINDS WILL BE UPSLOPE AND THIS
WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS AT THESE LOCATIONS WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS.
BEHIND THE FRONT ALL SITES WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT WIND GUSTS AS A WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ALLOWS FOR EFFICIENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF
INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT G40KT AT KROA WITH GUSTS AOA 30KT FOR
KBCB/KLWB/KBLF.


EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

EXPECT VFR SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SUBSIDING
WINDS...THOUGH SOME MVFR INTO SAT NIGHT POSSIBLE AT BLF.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT POOR FLYING WEATHER WILL TAKE PLACE
DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING WINTRY
PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT FURTHER UPDATES FROM THE
LONGER RANGE MODELS MAY IMPACT THE DETAILS ON PRECIPITATION TYPE
AND STORM TRACK.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR VAZ007-009-015.
NC...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NCZ001-002-018.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR WVZ042>044-507.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR WVZ042-043-508.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR WVZ508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...AMS/RAB
AVIATION...MBS/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 121158
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
658 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND BRING
WINDY CONDITIONS AND BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION...ALONG
WITH SOME SNOW FOR THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS...THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. BY MONDAY ANOTHER WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT
THE REGION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST FRIDAY...

THE MAIN WEATHER PLAYERS FOR OUR REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND SETS
OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
BELIEVE THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION WILL SEE AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW
BEFORE THE UPSLOPE REALLY KICKS IN AND PROVIDES ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
ALONG THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES THROUGH TONIGHT. THE AIR MOVING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT IS QUITE COLD INDEED AND WILL CREATE SOME VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND EVEN A BIT OF CAPE...WHICH MAY BRING US ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR A PERIOD OF THUNDERSNOW EARLY TONIGHT. MESO MODELS ALSO INDICATE
A DECENT UPSTREAM CONTRIBUTION TO THE MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
BELIEVE THESE FACTORS WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
GENERALLY IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES WITH SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE SO WILL ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA
FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO START TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND GOOD MOMENTUM
TRANSFER IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALLOW FOR QUITE A BIT OF WIND
OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH EXPECTED ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO GENERATE WIND CHILL VALUES OF 5 TO 15
BELOW ZERO...WITH READINGS TO 25 BELOW FOR WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY IN
WEST VIRGINIA. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ON SATURDAY BUT THE
COMBINATION OF WIND AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE VERY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE AREA ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH A WIND CHILL WARNING FOR
WESTERN GREENBRIER. CONDITIONS EAST OF THE RIDGE WILL NOT BE QUITE AS
SEVERE AS LOWS TONIGHT REACH THE 15 TO 20 DEGREE RANGE WITH WIND CHILL
VALUES INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EST FRIDAY...

COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON STILL SLATED TO BE SPREADING INTO THE
REGION FOR SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT SUNDAY
MORNING. THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF THE INTENSITY OF THE COLD AIR
MASS JUST SLIGHTLY WITH EACH SUCCEEDING RUN...NOW STOPPING AROUND
-22C ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. SIMILAR EVENTS
THE PAST TWO YEARS HAVE SEEN READINGS CLOSER TO -25/-26C...SO FEEL
CONFIDENT THAT MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL FALL A
COUPLE OF DEGREES SHY OF WHAT WE SAW THE LAST COUPLE OF YEARS WITH
SIMILAR ARCTIC OUTBREAKS. ALSO...SNOW COVER IS LIMITED EAST OF
THE ALLEGHANY FRONT AND THE MOUNTAINS OF SW VA/NW NC...SO THAT
WILL ALSO NOT HELP DRIVE TEMPERATURES TO THE LEVELS WE SAW AROUND
THIS TIME LAST YEAR. NONETHELESS...IT WILL BE BITTERLY COLD AND
VERY WINDY...PROMPTING A CONTINUATION OF THE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND THE WARNING FOR WESTERN GREENBRIER.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
NEAR 0 TO -5F AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THE ADVISORIES/WARNINGS
ARE WARRANTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS IT WILL TAKE VERY
LITTLE FOR WIND CHILLS TO MEET CRITERIA WITH TEMPS THAT LOW.

UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN SATURDAY MORNING
FAIRLY QUICKLY AS THE VERY DRY ARCTIC AIR MASS SPREADS INTO THE
REGION. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS GOING THROUGH MID-DAY...THEN END THEM...ALBEIT SOME
FLURRIES COULD CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS ARCTIC COLD-
ADVECTION SQUEAKS OUT ANY REMAINING MOISTURE. WINDS WILL BE
STRONG AND GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT LIKELY DROP BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THAT
IS LUMPED INTO THE WSW.

THE ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING WITH...AS
NOTED ABOVE...BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES...BUT WINDS TRENDING
TOWARD CALM. BY AFTERNOON...THE ARCTIC HIGH HAS ALREADY SHIFTED
TOWARD THE VA/MD COAST WITH RETURN FLOW EVIDENT ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHWEST VA. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE QUICKLY MOVES TOWARD
THE REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASING MOISTURE FROM TOP
DOWN. THE ANTECEDENT AIR MASS WILL CLEARLY BE VERY DRY AND COLD
AND NOT SURE HOW QUICKLY THE AIR MASS WILL SATURATE TO ALLOW
GENERATED PRECIPITATION ALOFT TO REACH THE GROUND. INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THIS SHOULD BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE AFTER SUNSET IN THE WEST AND
CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT IN THE EAST. THUS...WILL LEAVE THE DAYTIME
HOURS OF SUNDAY DRY WITH POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT. ALL PRECIPITATION
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA AS THE SOUNDINGS
REMAIN BELOW FREEZING AT ALL LEVELS.

AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY...THE SITUATION BECOMES INCREASINGLY
COMPLICATED. THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF
THE REGION EARLY MONDAY...WHILE A STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT
WAVE DEEPENS INTO THE MID-SOUTH. DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
THEN DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THIS SECOND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH...MOVING TOWARD THE EASTERN TN VALLEY BY
MONDAY EVENING. ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE TAKEN A SLIGHT WEST JOG
WITH THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE...RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
WARMER AIR FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TO ENCROACH ON THE REGION.
NONETHELESS...THE ANTECEDENT AIR MASS WILL BE VERY COLD AND MODELS
OFTEN ADVERTISE A WARMUP TOO QUICKLY WITH THIS TYPE OF SITUATION.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...THEN BEGIN
TO LIFT NORTHWARD EARLY TUE. THIS IS WHEN THE P-TYPE ISSUES WILL
BEGIN WITH A TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN AND
PERHAPS EVEN RAIN IN PARTS OF THE PIEDMONT. THIS ENTIRE PERIOD
WILL EVENTUALLY HAVE TO BE HANDLED BY TOP-DOWN OR SIMILAR P-TYPE
PROCEDURES...BUT GIVEN IT IS STILL OUT IN THE DAY 4 AND BEYOND
PERIOD....WILL STICK WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE FOR NOW. ALTHOUGH
SNOW/SLEET/ICE AMOUNTS STILL HIGHLY IN QUESTION...IT STILL APPEARS
QUITE CERTAIN THAT WINTER STORM CRITERIA WILL LIKELY BE MET ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA IN THE SUN NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUE TIME
FRAME...WITH STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THIS
PERIOD WILL LIKELY NEED TO FOLLOW ON THE HEELS OF THE CURRENT
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EST THURSDAY...

A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW...REMAINING MOSTLY INLAND...WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE CWA TUE...MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC BY
EVENING. SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR MUCH
OF THE CWA...BUT POTENTIALLY TRANSITIONING TO RAIN ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. BUFKIT SHOWS CONSIDERABLE VERTICAL MOTION IN THE SNOW
GROWTH ZONE EARLY TUESDAY...SO THERE COULD BE A BURST OF HEAVY
SNOW/SLEET BEFORE THE DRY SLOT SPREADS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND SHUTS OFF THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION...WHICH SHOULD
OCCUR BY MIDDAY TUE. BY EVENING...COLDER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER
BACK INTO THE WESTERN AREAS AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS COMMENCE ONCE
AGAIN.

IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG SYNOPTIC SYSTEM TUESDAY...ANOTHER
CLIPPER IS EVIDENT IN CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL
WARMING OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE LOOKS LIMITED DURING THIS PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS SHOWED SUBSTANTIAL WARMING
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...THAT IS NOT EVIDENT TODAY. MEXMOS KEEPS
WESTERN AREAS MOSTLY AT OR BELOW FREEZING THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH
ONLY LIMITED WARMING DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE
CLIPPER TUE NIGHT/WED...COULD BRING ADDITIONAL MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS TO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA BEFORE MOVING
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. OUTSIDE OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...THAT
SHOULD BE THE LAST OF ANY SYNOPTIC-SCALE INDUCED PRECIPITATION FOR
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM EST FRIDAY...

DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WILL BRING NELY WINDS AND MAYBE A FLURRY TO KDAN
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT THIS LOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE A MAJOR
IMPACT ON TAF SITES. HOWEVER...THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE AND COLD
FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO ALL TAF SITES
STARTING MID/LATE MORNING. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND
A TEMPO MVFR CIG MAY AFFECT KROA/KLYH/KDAN BUT FROPA WILL BRING NWLY
WINDS AND DOWNSLOPE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF
THE PERIOD. FOR KBCB/KBLF/KLWB THE NWLY WINDS WILL BE UPSLOPE AND THIS
WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS AT THESE LOCATIONS WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS.
BEHIND THE FRONT ALL SITES WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT WIND GUSTS AS A WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ALLOWS FOR EFFICIENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF
INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT G40KT AT KROA WITH GUSTS AOA 30KT FOR
KBCB/KLWB/KBLF.


EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

EXPECT VFR SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SUBSIDING
WINDS...THOUGH SOME MVFR INTO SAT NIGHT POSSIBLE AT BLF.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT POOR FLYING WEATHER WILL TAKE PLACE
DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING WINTRY
PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT FURTHER UPDATES FROM THE
LONGER RANGE MODELS MAY IMPACT THE DETAILS ON PRECIPITATION TYPE
AND STORM TRACK.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR VAZ007-009-015.
NC...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NCZ001-002-018.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR WVZ042>044-507.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR WVZ042-043-508.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR WVZ508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...AMS/RAB
AVIATION...MBS/WP



000
FXUS61 KRNK 121158
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
658 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND BRING
WINDY CONDITIONS AND BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION...ALONG
WITH SOME SNOW FOR THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS...THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. BY MONDAY ANOTHER WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT
THE REGION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST FRIDAY...

THE MAIN WEATHER PLAYERS FOR OUR REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND SETS
OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
BELIEVE THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION WILL SEE AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW
BEFORE THE UPSLOPE REALLY KICKS IN AND PROVIDES ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
ALONG THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES THROUGH TONIGHT. THE AIR MOVING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT IS QUITE COLD INDEED AND WILL CREATE SOME VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND EVEN A BIT OF CAPE...WHICH MAY BRING US ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR A PERIOD OF THUNDERSNOW EARLY TONIGHT. MESO MODELS ALSO INDICATE
A DECENT UPSTREAM CONTRIBUTION TO THE MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
BELIEVE THESE FACTORS WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
GENERALLY IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES WITH SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE SO WILL ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA
FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO START TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND GOOD MOMENTUM
TRANSFER IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALLOW FOR QUITE A BIT OF WIND
OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH EXPECTED ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO GENERATE WIND CHILL VALUES OF 5 TO 15
BELOW ZERO...WITH READINGS TO 25 BELOW FOR WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY IN
WEST VIRGINIA. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ON SATURDAY BUT THE
COMBINATION OF WIND AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE VERY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE AREA ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH A WIND CHILL WARNING FOR
WESTERN GREENBRIER. CONDITIONS EAST OF THE RIDGE WILL NOT BE QUITE AS
SEVERE AS LOWS TONIGHT REACH THE 15 TO 20 DEGREE RANGE WITH WIND CHILL
VALUES INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EST FRIDAY...

COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON STILL SLATED TO BE SPREADING INTO THE
REGION FOR SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT SUNDAY
MORNING. THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF THE INTENSITY OF THE COLD AIR
MASS JUST SLIGHTLY WITH EACH SUCCEEDING RUN...NOW STOPPING AROUND
-22C ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. SIMILAR EVENTS
THE PAST TWO YEARS HAVE SEEN READINGS CLOSER TO -25/-26C...SO FEEL
CONFIDENT THAT MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL FALL A
COUPLE OF DEGREES SHY OF WHAT WE SAW THE LAST COUPLE OF YEARS WITH
SIMILAR ARCTIC OUTBREAKS. ALSO...SNOW COVER IS LIMITED EAST OF
THE ALLEGHANY FRONT AND THE MOUNTAINS OF SW VA/NW NC...SO THAT
WILL ALSO NOT HELP DRIVE TEMPERATURES TO THE LEVELS WE SAW AROUND
THIS TIME LAST YEAR. NONETHELESS...IT WILL BE BITTERLY COLD AND
VERY WINDY...PROMPTING A CONTINUATION OF THE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND THE WARNING FOR WESTERN GREENBRIER.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
NEAR 0 TO -5F AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THE ADVISORIES/WARNINGS
ARE WARRANTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS IT WILL TAKE VERY
LITTLE FOR WIND CHILLS TO MEET CRITERIA WITH TEMPS THAT LOW.

UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN SATURDAY MORNING
FAIRLY QUICKLY AS THE VERY DRY ARCTIC AIR MASS SPREADS INTO THE
REGION. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS GOING THROUGH MID-DAY...THEN END THEM...ALBEIT SOME
FLURRIES COULD CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS ARCTIC COLD-
ADVECTION SQUEAKS OUT ANY REMAINING MOISTURE. WINDS WILL BE
STRONG AND GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT LIKELY DROP BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THAT
IS LUMPED INTO THE WSW.

THE ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING WITH...AS
NOTED ABOVE...BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES...BUT WINDS TRENDING
TOWARD CALM. BY AFTERNOON...THE ARCTIC HIGH HAS ALREADY SHIFTED
TOWARD THE VA/MD COAST WITH RETURN FLOW EVIDENT ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHWEST VA. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE QUICKLY MOVES TOWARD
THE REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASING MOISTURE FROM TOP
DOWN. THE ANTECEDENT AIR MASS WILL CLEARLY BE VERY DRY AND COLD
AND NOT SURE HOW QUICKLY THE AIR MASS WILL SATURATE TO ALLOW
GENERATED PRECIPITATION ALOFT TO REACH THE GROUND. INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THIS SHOULD BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE AFTER SUNSET IN THE WEST AND
CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT IN THE EAST. THUS...WILL LEAVE THE DAYTIME
HOURS OF SUNDAY DRY WITH POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT. ALL PRECIPITATION
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA AS THE SOUNDINGS
REMAIN BELOW FREEZING AT ALL LEVELS.

AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY...THE SITUATION BECOMES INCREASINGLY
COMPLICATED. THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF
THE REGION EARLY MONDAY...WHILE A STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT
WAVE DEEPENS INTO THE MID-SOUTH. DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
THEN DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THIS SECOND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH...MOVING TOWARD THE EASTERN TN VALLEY BY
MONDAY EVENING. ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE TAKEN A SLIGHT WEST JOG
WITH THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE...RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
WARMER AIR FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TO ENCROACH ON THE REGION.
NONETHELESS...THE ANTECEDENT AIR MASS WILL BE VERY COLD AND MODELS
OFTEN ADVERTISE A WARMUP TOO QUICKLY WITH THIS TYPE OF SITUATION.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...THEN BEGIN
TO LIFT NORTHWARD EARLY TUE. THIS IS WHEN THE P-TYPE ISSUES WILL
BEGIN WITH A TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN AND
PERHAPS EVEN RAIN IN PARTS OF THE PIEDMONT. THIS ENTIRE PERIOD
WILL EVENTUALLY HAVE TO BE HANDLED BY TOP-DOWN OR SIMILAR P-TYPE
PROCEDURES...BUT GIVEN IT IS STILL OUT IN THE DAY 4 AND BEYOND
PERIOD....WILL STICK WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE FOR NOW. ALTHOUGH
SNOW/SLEET/ICE AMOUNTS STILL HIGHLY IN QUESTION...IT STILL APPEARS
QUITE CERTAIN THAT WINTER STORM CRITERIA WILL LIKELY BE MET ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA IN THE SUN NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUE TIME
FRAME...WITH STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THIS
PERIOD WILL LIKELY NEED TO FOLLOW ON THE HEELS OF THE CURRENT
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EST THURSDAY...

A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW...REMAINING MOSTLY INLAND...WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE CWA TUE...MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC BY
EVENING. SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR MUCH
OF THE CWA...BUT POTENTIALLY TRANSITIONING TO RAIN ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. BUFKIT SHOWS CONSIDERABLE VERTICAL MOTION IN THE SNOW
GROWTH ZONE EARLY TUESDAY...SO THERE COULD BE A BURST OF HEAVY
SNOW/SLEET BEFORE THE DRY SLOT SPREADS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND SHUTS OFF THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION...WHICH SHOULD
OCCUR BY MIDDAY TUE. BY EVENING...COLDER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER
BACK INTO THE WESTERN AREAS AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS COMMENCE ONCE
AGAIN.

IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG SYNOPTIC SYSTEM TUESDAY...ANOTHER
CLIPPER IS EVIDENT IN CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL
WARMING OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE LOOKS LIMITED DURING THIS PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS SHOWED SUBSTANTIAL WARMING
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...THAT IS NOT EVIDENT TODAY. MEXMOS KEEPS
WESTERN AREAS MOSTLY AT OR BELOW FREEZING THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH
ONLY LIMITED WARMING DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE
CLIPPER TUE NIGHT/WED...COULD BRING ADDITIONAL MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS TO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA BEFORE MOVING
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. OUTSIDE OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...THAT
SHOULD BE THE LAST OF ANY SYNOPTIC-SCALE INDUCED PRECIPITATION FOR
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM EST FRIDAY...

DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WILL BRING NELY WINDS AND MAYBE A FLURRY TO KDAN
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT THIS LOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE A MAJOR
IMPACT ON TAF SITES. HOWEVER...THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE AND COLD
FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO ALL TAF SITES
STARTING MID/LATE MORNING. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND
A TEMPO MVFR CIG MAY AFFECT KROA/KLYH/KDAN BUT FROPA WILL BRING NWLY
WINDS AND DOWNSLOPE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF
THE PERIOD. FOR KBCB/KBLF/KLWB THE NWLY WINDS WILL BE UPSLOPE AND THIS
WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS AT THESE LOCATIONS WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS.
BEHIND THE FRONT ALL SITES WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT WIND GUSTS AS A WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ALLOWS FOR EFFICIENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF
INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT G40KT AT KROA WITH GUSTS AOA 30KT FOR
KBCB/KLWB/KBLF.


EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

EXPECT VFR SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SUBSIDING
WINDS...THOUGH SOME MVFR INTO SAT NIGHT POSSIBLE AT BLF.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT POOR FLYING WEATHER WILL TAKE PLACE
DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING WINTRY
PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT FURTHER UPDATES FROM THE
LONGER RANGE MODELS MAY IMPACT THE DETAILS ON PRECIPITATION TYPE
AND STORM TRACK.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR VAZ007-009-015.
NC...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NCZ001-002-018.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR WVZ042>044-507.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR WVZ042-043-508.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR WVZ508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...AMS/RAB
AVIATION...MBS/WP




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 121134
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
634 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS MORNING...LIFTING
NORTHEAST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA COASTS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR
THIS YEAR. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK HI PRES WAS RIGHT OVR THE FA EARLY THIS MORNG...PROVIDING
DRY/COLD CONDITIONS...WITH INCREASING HI AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
THE HI WILL SLIDE OFFSHR LATER THIS MORNING...WITH ATTENTION
QUICKLY TURNING TO WEAK LO PRES DEVELOPING ALONG THE SE CST...AS
SHRTWV ENERGY DIGS FM THE MIDWEST TWD THE NC/SC CST. TEMPS EARLY
THIS MORNG WERE RANGING FM THE UPR TEENS TO MID 20S ACRS THE
REGION WITH DWPTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LWR TEENS. THE LO PRES
AREA WILL INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY...AS IT TRACKS NE OFF THE NC AND VA
CSTS LATER THIS AFTN INTO TNGT. HAVE KEPT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES
IN PLACE FOR NE NC AND EXTRM SE VA...AND GENERALLY MAINTAINED SNOW
AMTS FOR THESE AREAS. BUT...HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS AND THUS
DECREASED SNOW AMTS FARTHER N AND W INTO THE PIEDMONT...DUE TO
LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE (QPF AMTS) AND DYNAMICS (LIFT) IN THESE
LOCATIONS. BEST DYNAMICS (LIFT/FRONTOGENETIC FORCING) AND DEEPER
MOISTURE (HIGHEST QPF AMTS) REMAIN ACRS EXTRM SE VA AND NE NC FOR
THIS EVENT...AND THUS STILL COULD GET 2-3 INCHES OF SNOW (POSSIBLY
UP TO 4 INCHES) OVR NE NC COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE ALBEMARLE SND
AND ATLC CST...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES (POSSIBLY UP TO 3 INCHES) OVR
SE VA (HAMPTON ROADS AREA) SW INTO INTERIOR NE NC COUNTIES. VERY
LATE THIS AFTN INTO EARLY THIS EVENG...SOME SLEET MAY MIX IN WITH
THE SNOW NEAR THE NC CST. FOR INTERIOR SE VA...NE ACRS THE MIDDLE
PENINSULA INTO THE LWR MD ERN SHR AND INCLUDING ACCOMACK
COUNTY...SNOW AMTS COULD END UP BETWEEN 0.5 INCH AND 1 INCH.
BUT...NO ADVSY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOCATIONS. PLEASE SEE LATEST
WSW FOR MORE INFO. SNOW COMES TO AN END THIS EVENG/EARLY TNGT...AS
THE SFC LO PUSHES WELL ENE OF THE MID-ATLC CST AND THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY PUSHES THRU THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW/ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE POLAR VORTEX DIGS
OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. ~1040MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE MIDWEST...USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WINDY SAT WITH NW WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO
25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH (STRONGER NEAR THE COAST AND
OVER THE EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS SAT FORECAST TO WARM ONLY INTO THE
MID 20S NW TO LOW 30S SE (-2 STD DEV) UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE IN THE TEENS...RESULTING IN A
RAW/COLD/WINDY DAY. TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS SAT NIGHT. WINDS DECOUPLE INLAND AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...BUT WIND CHILLS STILL FORECAST IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
INLAND TO 0 TO 8 BELOW NRN NECK TO THE ERN SHORE. THE HIGH CENTERS
OVER THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY WITH NLY WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. SLIGHTLY
COLDER SUN WITH DECREASED MIXING. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER
20S (-2 STD DEV) UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ATTENTION
TURNING TO A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. THERE
REMAINS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS...ALTHOUGH
THE 11/12Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING SLOWER...AND WARMER FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. THE 11/12Z GFS CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT PCPN MONDAY AS A NRN STREAM TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WOULD MAINLY FALL AS SN OR SN/IP...WITH A TRANSITION TO
RA CLOSER TO THE COAST BY AFTERNOON. SUBSTANTIAL WARMING ALOFT WOULD
GENERALLY RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO RA MONDAY NIGHT...ASIDE FROM THE
FAR NW WHERE MIXED PCPN COULD PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH AN
IN-SITU WEDGE IN PLACE. THE LATEST DATA SCOURS OUT THE WEDGE BY
AFTERNOON WITH P-TYPE BECOMING RA EVEN IN THE FAR NW. DRYING OCCURS
MIDWEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE
CLIPPING THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
OF COOLER AIR AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS MONDAY WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOW 30S ALONG
AND W OF I-95...WHILE COASTAL LOCATIONS WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOW 40S. TEMPERATURES REMAIN STEADY MONDAY EVENING AND BEGIN TO RISE
OVERNIGHT EVENTUALLY WARMING INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S...FOLLOWED BY
LOW 40S NE...TO UPPER 40S SW THURSDAY. MORNING LOWS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CHALLENGING FORECAST LATER TODAY AS THE LATEST HIGH RES DATA KEEPS
THE FA DRY THRU 18Z AND SHOWS MOST OF THE SGNFCNT MSTR WITH THIS
CSTL LOW HUGS THE OUTER BANKS WITH LTL IN THE WAY OF SPRT/QPF FOR
SGNFCNT ACCUMS ACROSS SERN VA AND POINTS TO THE NW. THUS...VFR
CNDTNS WILL BE MAINTAINED THRU 18Z. BROUGHT SN INTO ECG/ORF AND
PHF ARND 21Z WITH A 2-3 HR PRD OF MDT SNOW PSBL BY 00Z WHICH IS
WHERE ANY ACCUMLS WUD OCCUR. KEPT A SNPL MIX AT ECG AS SNDGS DO
SHOW SOME MARINE INFLUENCES OCCURRING BEFORE PCPN ENDS. LTST DATA
INDCTG THAT MOST PCPN REMAINS EAST OF SBY...BUT DID KEEP A 4 HR
PRD OF LGHT SNOW THERE THIS EVE. DATA ALSO SPRTG A PSBL SNOW SHWR
ACROSS NRN MOST CNTYS WITH THE ACTUAL ARCTIC FRNT AS IT CROSSES
THE RGN TONITE. MVFR CIGS XPCTD WITH THE SNOW BUT IFR VSBYS ARE
LIKELY IN ANY HEAVIER SNOW BANDS. LOW DP TMPS/DRY AIRMASS OVR THE
PIEDMONT SHUD PREVENT ANYTHING MORE THAN SCT FLURRIES AT RIC.

OUTLOOK...GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOP SATURDAY MORNING. VFR AND DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. PCPN DEVELOPS MONDAY AS
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW. PCPN BEGINS AS
SNOW UNDER A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUT THIS BREAKS DOWN AND WARMER
AIR WORKS IN AND CHANGES SNOW TO RAIN FROM SE TO NW.

RAIN CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
DRY WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES TODAY AS THE MARINE AREA WINDS WILL GNRLY BE AOB 15KTS
AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRS PROGGED TO MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THIS LOW WILL NOT BRING ANY WIND RELATED MARINE
HEADLINES...THE ASSCTD PCPN WILL BRING REDUCED VSBYS IN SNOW/SLEET
OF VARYING INTENSITIES LATE THIS AFTRN AND EVE.

AS THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. A NW WIND WILL AVERAGE 25-30KT
WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35-40KT OVER THE OCEAN AND BAY. SEAS BUILD TO
5-8FT WITH 4-5 FT WAVES IN THE BAY. GALE FLAGS HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR
LATE TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND...WIND
SPEEDS HAVE BEEN CAPPED AT HIGH-END SCA AT THIS TIME.

EXPANDED THE FREEZING SPRAY WINDOW TO INCLUDE SAT...SAT NITE AND SUN
MORN GIVEN FCSTD WND SPEEDS / GUSTS COMBINED WITH AIR TMPS BELOW 30
DEGREES. LIMITED THE FREEZING SPRAY TO THE MORE OPEN CHES BAY AND
CSTL WATER AREAS. PER COORD WITH PHL...HOISTED FREEZING SPRAY ADVSRY
FOR THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL. THIS MEANS LIGHT TO MDT ACCUMULATION OF
ICE CAN BE EXPECTED ON VESSELS.

THE WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES
ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FORM THE SW EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE
BLOW-OUT TIDES / LOW WATER ADVISORIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     NCZ012>014.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ015>017-
     030>032-102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ092-
     093-095>098-100-523>525.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ633-635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...SAM/TMG
SHORT TERM...SAM/TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING..AKQ.




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 121134
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
634 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS MORNING...LIFTING
NORTHEAST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA COASTS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR
THIS YEAR. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK HI PRES WAS RIGHT OVR THE FA EARLY THIS MORNG...PROVIDING
DRY/COLD CONDITIONS...WITH INCREASING HI AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
THE HI WILL SLIDE OFFSHR LATER THIS MORNING...WITH ATTENTION
QUICKLY TURNING TO WEAK LO PRES DEVELOPING ALONG THE SE CST...AS
SHRTWV ENERGY DIGS FM THE MIDWEST TWD THE NC/SC CST. TEMPS EARLY
THIS MORNG WERE RANGING FM THE UPR TEENS TO MID 20S ACRS THE
REGION WITH DWPTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LWR TEENS. THE LO PRES
AREA WILL INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY...AS IT TRACKS NE OFF THE NC AND VA
CSTS LATER THIS AFTN INTO TNGT. HAVE KEPT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES
IN PLACE FOR NE NC AND EXTRM SE VA...AND GENERALLY MAINTAINED SNOW
AMTS FOR THESE AREAS. BUT...HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS AND THUS
DECREASED SNOW AMTS FARTHER N AND W INTO THE PIEDMONT...DUE TO
LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE (QPF AMTS) AND DYNAMICS (LIFT) IN THESE
LOCATIONS. BEST DYNAMICS (LIFT/FRONTOGENETIC FORCING) AND DEEPER
MOISTURE (HIGHEST QPF AMTS) REMAIN ACRS EXTRM SE VA AND NE NC FOR
THIS EVENT...AND THUS STILL COULD GET 2-3 INCHES OF SNOW (POSSIBLY
UP TO 4 INCHES) OVR NE NC COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE ALBEMARLE SND
AND ATLC CST...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES (POSSIBLY UP TO 3 INCHES) OVR
SE VA (HAMPTON ROADS AREA) SW INTO INTERIOR NE NC COUNTIES. VERY
LATE THIS AFTN INTO EARLY THIS EVENG...SOME SLEET MAY MIX IN WITH
THE SNOW NEAR THE NC CST. FOR INTERIOR SE VA...NE ACRS THE MIDDLE
PENINSULA INTO THE LWR MD ERN SHR AND INCLUDING ACCOMACK
COUNTY...SNOW AMTS COULD END UP BETWEEN 0.5 INCH AND 1 INCH.
BUT...NO ADVSY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOCATIONS. PLEASE SEE LATEST
WSW FOR MORE INFO. SNOW COMES TO AN END THIS EVENG/EARLY TNGT...AS
THE SFC LO PUSHES WELL ENE OF THE MID-ATLC CST AND THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY PUSHES THRU THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW/ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE POLAR VORTEX DIGS
OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. ~1040MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE MIDWEST...USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WINDY SAT WITH NW WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO
25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH (STRONGER NEAR THE COAST AND
OVER THE EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS SAT FORECAST TO WARM ONLY INTO THE
MID 20S NW TO LOW 30S SE (-2 STD DEV) UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE IN THE TEENS...RESULTING IN A
RAW/COLD/WINDY DAY. TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS SAT NIGHT. WINDS DECOUPLE INLAND AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...BUT WIND CHILLS STILL FORECAST IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
INLAND TO 0 TO 8 BELOW NRN NECK TO THE ERN SHORE. THE HIGH CENTERS
OVER THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY WITH NLY WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. SLIGHTLY
COLDER SUN WITH DECREASED MIXING. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER
20S (-2 STD DEV) UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ATTENTION
TURNING TO A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. THERE
REMAINS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS...ALTHOUGH
THE 11/12Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING SLOWER...AND WARMER FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. THE 11/12Z GFS CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT PCPN MONDAY AS A NRN STREAM TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WOULD MAINLY FALL AS SN OR SN/IP...WITH A TRANSITION TO
RA CLOSER TO THE COAST BY AFTERNOON. SUBSTANTIAL WARMING ALOFT WOULD
GENERALLY RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO RA MONDAY NIGHT...ASIDE FROM THE
FAR NW WHERE MIXED PCPN COULD PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH AN
IN-SITU WEDGE IN PLACE. THE LATEST DATA SCOURS OUT THE WEDGE BY
AFTERNOON WITH P-TYPE BECOMING RA EVEN IN THE FAR NW. DRYING OCCURS
MIDWEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE
CLIPPING THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
OF COOLER AIR AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS MONDAY WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOW 30S ALONG
AND W OF I-95...WHILE COASTAL LOCATIONS WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOW 40S. TEMPERATURES REMAIN STEADY MONDAY EVENING AND BEGIN TO RISE
OVERNIGHT EVENTUALLY WARMING INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S...FOLLOWED BY
LOW 40S NE...TO UPPER 40S SW THURSDAY. MORNING LOWS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CHALLENGING FORECAST LATER TODAY AS THE LATEST HIGH RES DATA KEEPS
THE FA DRY THRU 18Z AND SHOWS MOST OF THE SGNFCNT MSTR WITH THIS
CSTL LOW HUGS THE OUTER BANKS WITH LTL IN THE WAY OF SPRT/QPF FOR
SGNFCNT ACCUMS ACROSS SERN VA AND POINTS TO THE NW. THUS...VFR
CNDTNS WILL BE MAINTAINED THRU 18Z. BROUGHT SN INTO ECG/ORF AND
PHF ARND 21Z WITH A 2-3 HR PRD OF MDT SNOW PSBL BY 00Z WHICH IS
WHERE ANY ACCUMLS WUD OCCUR. KEPT A SNPL MIX AT ECG AS SNDGS DO
SHOW SOME MARINE INFLUENCES OCCURRING BEFORE PCPN ENDS. LTST DATA
INDCTG THAT MOST PCPN REMAINS EAST OF SBY...BUT DID KEEP A 4 HR
PRD OF LGHT SNOW THERE THIS EVE. DATA ALSO SPRTG A PSBL SNOW SHWR
ACROSS NRN MOST CNTYS WITH THE ACTUAL ARCTIC FRNT AS IT CROSSES
THE RGN TONITE. MVFR CIGS XPCTD WITH THE SNOW BUT IFR VSBYS ARE
LIKELY IN ANY HEAVIER SNOW BANDS. LOW DP TMPS/DRY AIRMASS OVR THE
PIEDMONT SHUD PREVENT ANYTHING MORE THAN SCT FLURRIES AT RIC.

OUTLOOK...GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOP SATURDAY MORNING. VFR AND DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. PCPN DEVELOPS MONDAY AS
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW. PCPN BEGINS AS
SNOW UNDER A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUT THIS BREAKS DOWN AND WARMER
AIR WORKS IN AND CHANGES SNOW TO RAIN FROM SE TO NW.

RAIN CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
DRY WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES TODAY AS THE MARINE AREA WINDS WILL GNRLY BE AOB 15KTS
AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRS PROGGED TO MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THIS LOW WILL NOT BRING ANY WIND RELATED MARINE
HEADLINES...THE ASSCTD PCPN WILL BRING REDUCED VSBYS IN SNOW/SLEET
OF VARYING INTENSITIES LATE THIS AFTRN AND EVE.

AS THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. A NW WIND WILL AVERAGE 25-30KT
WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35-40KT OVER THE OCEAN AND BAY. SEAS BUILD TO
5-8FT WITH 4-5 FT WAVES IN THE BAY. GALE FLAGS HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR
LATE TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND...WIND
SPEEDS HAVE BEEN CAPPED AT HIGH-END SCA AT THIS TIME.

EXPANDED THE FREEZING SPRAY WINDOW TO INCLUDE SAT...SAT NITE AND SUN
MORN GIVEN FCSTD WND SPEEDS / GUSTS COMBINED WITH AIR TMPS BELOW 30
DEGREES. LIMITED THE FREEZING SPRAY TO THE MORE OPEN CHES BAY AND
CSTL WATER AREAS. PER COORD WITH PHL...HOISTED FREEZING SPRAY ADVSRY
FOR THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL. THIS MEANS LIGHT TO MDT ACCUMULATION OF
ICE CAN BE EXPECTED ON VESSELS.

THE WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES
ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FORM THE SW EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE
BLOW-OUT TIDES / LOW WATER ADVISORIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     NCZ012>014.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ015>017-
     030>032-102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ092-
     093-095>098-100-523>525.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ633-635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...SAM/TMG
SHORT TERM...SAM/TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING..AKQ.



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 121134
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
634 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS MORNING...LIFTING
NORTHEAST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA COASTS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR
THIS YEAR. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK HI PRES WAS RIGHT OVR THE FA EARLY THIS MORNG...PROVIDING
DRY/COLD CONDITIONS...WITH INCREASING HI AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
THE HI WILL SLIDE OFFSHR LATER THIS MORNING...WITH ATTENTION
QUICKLY TURNING TO WEAK LO PRES DEVELOPING ALONG THE SE CST...AS
SHRTWV ENERGY DIGS FM THE MIDWEST TWD THE NC/SC CST. TEMPS EARLY
THIS MORNG WERE RANGING FM THE UPR TEENS TO MID 20S ACRS THE
REGION WITH DWPTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LWR TEENS. THE LO PRES
AREA WILL INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY...AS IT TRACKS NE OFF THE NC AND VA
CSTS LATER THIS AFTN INTO TNGT. HAVE KEPT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES
IN PLACE FOR NE NC AND EXTRM SE VA...AND GENERALLY MAINTAINED SNOW
AMTS FOR THESE AREAS. BUT...HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS AND THUS
DECREASED SNOW AMTS FARTHER N AND W INTO THE PIEDMONT...DUE TO
LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE (QPF AMTS) AND DYNAMICS (LIFT) IN THESE
LOCATIONS. BEST DYNAMICS (LIFT/FRONTOGENETIC FORCING) AND DEEPER
MOISTURE (HIGHEST QPF AMTS) REMAIN ACRS EXTRM SE VA AND NE NC FOR
THIS EVENT...AND THUS STILL COULD GET 2-3 INCHES OF SNOW (POSSIBLY
UP TO 4 INCHES) OVR NE NC COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE ALBEMARLE SND
AND ATLC CST...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES (POSSIBLY UP TO 3 INCHES) OVR
SE VA (HAMPTON ROADS AREA) SW INTO INTERIOR NE NC COUNTIES. VERY
LATE THIS AFTN INTO EARLY THIS EVENG...SOME SLEET MAY MIX IN WITH
THE SNOW NEAR THE NC CST. FOR INTERIOR SE VA...NE ACRS THE MIDDLE
PENINSULA INTO THE LWR MD ERN SHR AND INCLUDING ACCOMACK
COUNTY...SNOW AMTS COULD END UP BETWEEN 0.5 INCH AND 1 INCH.
BUT...NO ADVSY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOCATIONS. PLEASE SEE LATEST
WSW FOR MORE INFO. SNOW COMES TO AN END THIS EVENG/EARLY TNGT...AS
THE SFC LO PUSHES WELL ENE OF THE MID-ATLC CST AND THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY PUSHES THRU THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW/ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE POLAR VORTEX DIGS
OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. ~1040MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE MIDWEST...USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WINDY SAT WITH NW WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO
25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH (STRONGER NEAR THE COAST AND
OVER THE EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS SAT FORECAST TO WARM ONLY INTO THE
MID 20S NW TO LOW 30S SE (-2 STD DEV) UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE IN THE TEENS...RESULTING IN A
RAW/COLD/WINDY DAY. TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS SAT NIGHT. WINDS DECOUPLE INLAND AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...BUT WIND CHILLS STILL FORECAST IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
INLAND TO 0 TO 8 BELOW NRN NECK TO THE ERN SHORE. THE HIGH CENTERS
OVER THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY WITH NLY WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. SLIGHTLY
COLDER SUN WITH DECREASED MIXING. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER
20S (-2 STD DEV) UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ATTENTION
TURNING TO A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. THERE
REMAINS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS...ALTHOUGH
THE 11/12Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING SLOWER...AND WARMER FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. THE 11/12Z GFS CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT PCPN MONDAY AS A NRN STREAM TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WOULD MAINLY FALL AS SN OR SN/IP...WITH A TRANSITION TO
RA CLOSER TO THE COAST BY AFTERNOON. SUBSTANTIAL WARMING ALOFT WOULD
GENERALLY RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO RA MONDAY NIGHT...ASIDE FROM THE
FAR NW WHERE MIXED PCPN COULD PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH AN
IN-SITU WEDGE IN PLACE. THE LATEST DATA SCOURS OUT THE WEDGE BY
AFTERNOON WITH P-TYPE BECOMING RA EVEN IN THE FAR NW. DRYING OCCURS
MIDWEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE
CLIPPING THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
OF COOLER AIR AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS MONDAY WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOW 30S ALONG
AND W OF I-95...WHILE COASTAL LOCATIONS WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOW 40S. TEMPERATURES REMAIN STEADY MONDAY EVENING AND BEGIN TO RISE
OVERNIGHT EVENTUALLY WARMING INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S...FOLLOWED BY
LOW 40S NE...TO UPPER 40S SW THURSDAY. MORNING LOWS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CHALLENGING FORECAST LATER TODAY AS THE LATEST HIGH RES DATA KEEPS
THE FA DRY THRU 18Z AND SHOWS MOST OF THE SGNFCNT MSTR WITH THIS
CSTL LOW HUGS THE OUTER BANKS WITH LTL IN THE WAY OF SPRT/QPF FOR
SGNFCNT ACCUMS ACROSS SERN VA AND POINTS TO THE NW. THUS...VFR
CNDTNS WILL BE MAINTAINED THRU 18Z. BROUGHT SN INTO ECG/ORF AND
PHF ARND 21Z WITH A 2-3 HR PRD OF MDT SNOW PSBL BY 00Z WHICH IS
WHERE ANY ACCUMLS WUD OCCUR. KEPT A SNPL MIX AT ECG AS SNDGS DO
SHOW SOME MARINE INFLUENCES OCCURRING BEFORE PCPN ENDS. LTST DATA
INDCTG THAT MOST PCPN REMAINS EAST OF SBY...BUT DID KEEP A 4 HR
PRD OF LGHT SNOW THERE THIS EVE. DATA ALSO SPRTG A PSBL SNOW SHWR
ACROSS NRN MOST CNTYS WITH THE ACTUAL ARCTIC FRNT AS IT CROSSES
THE RGN TONITE. MVFR CIGS XPCTD WITH THE SNOW BUT IFR VSBYS ARE
LIKELY IN ANY HEAVIER SNOW BANDS. LOW DP TMPS/DRY AIRMASS OVR THE
PIEDMONT SHUD PREVENT ANYTHING MORE THAN SCT FLURRIES AT RIC.

OUTLOOK...GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOP SATURDAY MORNING. VFR AND DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. PCPN DEVELOPS MONDAY AS
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW. PCPN BEGINS AS
SNOW UNDER A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUT THIS BREAKS DOWN AND WARMER
AIR WORKS IN AND CHANGES SNOW TO RAIN FROM SE TO NW.

RAIN CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
DRY WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES TODAY AS THE MARINE AREA WINDS WILL GNRLY BE AOB 15KTS
AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRS PROGGED TO MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THIS LOW WILL NOT BRING ANY WIND RELATED MARINE
HEADLINES...THE ASSCTD PCPN WILL BRING REDUCED VSBYS IN SNOW/SLEET
OF VARYING INTENSITIES LATE THIS AFTRN AND EVE.

AS THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. A NW WIND WILL AVERAGE 25-30KT
WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35-40KT OVER THE OCEAN AND BAY. SEAS BUILD TO
5-8FT WITH 4-5 FT WAVES IN THE BAY. GALE FLAGS HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR
LATE TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND...WIND
SPEEDS HAVE BEEN CAPPED AT HIGH-END SCA AT THIS TIME.

EXPANDED THE FREEZING SPRAY WINDOW TO INCLUDE SAT...SAT NITE AND SUN
MORN GIVEN FCSTD WND SPEEDS / GUSTS COMBINED WITH AIR TMPS BELOW 30
DEGREES. LIMITED THE FREEZING SPRAY TO THE MORE OPEN CHES BAY AND
CSTL WATER AREAS. PER COORD WITH PHL...HOISTED FREEZING SPRAY ADVSRY
FOR THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL. THIS MEANS LIGHT TO MDT ACCUMULATION OF
ICE CAN BE EXPECTED ON VESSELS.

THE WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES
ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FORM THE SW EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE
BLOW-OUT TIDES / LOW WATER ADVISORIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     NCZ012>014.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ015>017-
     030>032-102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ092-
     093-095>098-100-523>525.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ633-635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...SAM/TMG
SHORT TERM...SAM/TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING..AKQ.




000
FXUS61 KRNK 121019
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
519 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND BRING
WINDY CONDITIONS AND BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION...ALONG
WITH SOME SNOW FOR THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS...THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. BY MONDAY ANOTHER WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT
THE REGION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST FRIDAY...

THE MAIN WEATHER PLAYERS FOR OUR REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND SETS
OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
BELIEVE THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION WILL SEE AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW
BEFORE THE UPSLOPE REALLY KICKS IN AND PROVIDES ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
ALONG THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES THROUGH TONIGHT. THE AIR MOVING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT IS QUITE COLD INDEED AND WILL CREATE SOME VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND EVEN A BIT OF CAPE...WHICH MAY BRING US ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR A PERIOD OF THUNDERSNOW EARLY TONIGHT. MESO MODELS ALSO INDICATE
A DECENT UPSTREAM CONTRIBUTION TO THE MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
BELIEVE THESE FACTORS WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
GENERALLY IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES WITH SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE SO WILL ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA
FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO START TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND GOOD MOMENTUM
TRANSFER IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALLOW FOR QUITE A BIT OF WIND
OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH EXPECTED ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO GENERATE WIND CHILL VALUES OF 5 TO 15
BELOW ZERO...WITH READINGS TO 25 BELOW FOR WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY IN
WEST VIRGINIA. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ON SATURDAY BUT THE
COMBINATION OF WIND AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE VERY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE AREA ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH A WIND CHILL WARNING FOR
WESTERN GREENBRIER. CONDITIONS EAST OF THE RIDGE WILL NOT BE QUITE AS
SEVERE AS LOWS TONIGHT REACH THE 15 TO 20 DEGREE RANGE WITH WIND CHILL
VALUES INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EST FRIDAY...

COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON STILL SLATED TO BE SPREADING INTO THE
REGION FOR SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT SUNDAY
MORNING. THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF THE INTENSITY OF THE COLD AIR
MASS JUST SLIGHTLY WITH EACH SUCCEEDING RUN...NOW STOPPING AROUND
-22C ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. SIMILAR EVENTS
THE PAST TWO YEARS HAVE SEEN READINGS CLOSER TO -25/-26C...SO FEEL
CONFIDENT THAT MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL FALL A
COUPLE OF DEGREES SHY OF WHAT WE SAW THE LAST COUPLE OF YEARS WITH
SIMILAR ARCTIC OUTBREAKS. ALSO...SNOW COVER IS LIMITED EAST OF
THE ALLEGHANY FRONT AND THE MOUNTAINS OF SW VA/NW NC...SO THAT
WILL ALSO NOT HELP DRIVE TEMPERATURES TO THE LEVELS WE SAW AROUND
THIS TIME LAST YEAR. NONETHELESS...IT WILL BE BITTERLY COLD AND
VERY WINDY...PROMPTING A CONTINUATION OF THE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND THE WARNING FOR WESTERN GREENBRIER.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
NEAR 0 TO -5F AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THE ADVISORIES/WARNINGS
ARE WARRANTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS IT WILL TAKE VERY
LITTLE FOR WIND CHILLS TO MEET CRITERIA WITH TEMPS THAT LOW.

UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN SATURDAY MORNING
FAIRLY QUICKLY AS THE VERY DRY ARCTIC AIR MASS SPREADS INTO THE
REGION. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS GOING THROUGH MID-DAY...THEN END THEM...ALBEIT SOME
FLURRIES COULD CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS ARCTIC COLD-
ADVECTION SQUEAKS OUT ANY REMAINING MOISTURE. WINDS WILL BE
STRONG AND GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT LIKELY DROP BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THAT
IS LUMPED INTO THE WSW.

THE ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING WITH...AS
NOTED ABOVE...BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES...BUT WINDS TRENDING
TOWARD CALM. BY AFTERNOON...THE ARCTIC HIGH HAS ALREADY SHIFTED
TOWARD THE VA/MD COAST WITH RETURN FLOW EVIDENT ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHWEST VA. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE QUICKLY MOVES TOWARD
THE REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASING MOISTURE FROM TOP
DOWN. THE ANTECEDENT AIR MASS WILL CLEARLY BE VERY DRY AND COLD
AND NOT SURE HOW QUICKLY THE AIR MASS WILL SATURATE TO ALLOW
GENERATED PRECIPITATION ALOFT TO REACH THE GROUND. INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THIS SHOULD BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE AFTER SUNSET IN THE WEST AND
CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT IN THE EAST. THUS...WILL LEAVE THE DAYTIME
HOURS OF SUNDAY DRY WITH POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT. ALL PRECIPITATION
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA AS THE SOUNDINGS
REMAIN BELOW FREEZING AT ALL LEVELS.

AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY...THE SITUATION BECOMES INCREASINGLY
COMPLICATED. THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF
THE REGION EARLY MONDAY...WHILE A STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT
WAVE DEEPENS INTO THE MID-SOUTH. DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
THEN DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THIS SECOND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH...MOVING TOWARD THE EASTERN TN VALLEY BY
MONDAY EVENING. ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE TAKEN A SLIGHT WEST JOG
WITH THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE...RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
WARMER AIR FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TO ENCROACH ON THE REGION.
NONETHELESS...THE ANTECEDENT AIR MASS WILL BE VERY COLD AND MODELS
OFTEN ADVERTISE A WARMUP TOO QUICKLY WITH THIS TYPE OF SITUATION.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...THEN BEGIN
TO LIFT NORTHWARD EARLY TUE. THIS IS WHEN THE P-TYPE ISSUES WILL
BEGIN WITH A TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN AND
PERHAPS EVEN RAIN IN PARTS OF THE PIEDMONT. THIS ENTIRE PERIOD
WILL EVENTUALLY HAVE TO BE HANDLED BY TOP-DOWN OR SIMILAR P-TYPE
PROCEDURES...BUT GIVEN IT IS STILL OUT IN THE DAY 4 AND BEYOND
PERIOD....WILL STICK WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE FOR NOW. ALTHOUGH
SNOW/SLEET/ICE AMOUNTS STILL HIGHLY IN QUESTION...IT STILL APPEARS
QUITE CERTAIN THAT WINTER STORM CRITERIA WILL LIKELY BE MET ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA IN THE SUN NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUE TIME
FRAME...WITH STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THIS
PERIOD WILL LIKELY NEED TO FOLLOW ON THE HEELS OF THE CURRENT
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EST THURSDAY...

A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW...REMAINING MOSTLY INLAND...WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE CWA TUE...MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC BY
EVENING. SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR MUCH
OF THE CWA...BUT POTENTIALLY TRANSITIONING TO RAIN ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. BUFKIT SHOWS CONSIDERABLE VERTICAL MOTION IN THE SNOW
GROWTH ZONE EARLY TUESDAY...SO THERE COULD BE A BURST OF HEAVY
SNOW/SLEET BEFORE THE DRY SLOT SPREADS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND SHUTS OFF THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION...WHICH SHOULD
OCCUR BY MIDDAY TUE. BY EVENING...COLDER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER
BACK INTO THE WESTERN AREAS AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS COMMENCE ONCE
AGAIN.

IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG SYNOPTIC SYSTEM TUESDAY...ANOTHER
CLIPPER IS EVIDENT IN CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL
WARMING OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE LOOKS LIMITED DURING THIS PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS SHOWED SUBSTANTIAL WARMING
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...THAT IS NOT EVIDENT TODAY. MEXMOS KEEPS
WESTERN AREAS MOSTLY AT OR BELOW FREEZING THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH
ONLY LIMITED WARMING DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE
CLIPPER TUE NIGHT/WED...COULD BRING ADDITIONAL MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS TO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA BEFORE MOVING
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. OUTSIDE OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...THAT
SHOULD BE THE LAST OF ANY SYNOPTIC-SCALE INDUCED PRECIPITATION FOR
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1150 PM EST THURSDAY...

VFR THROUGH 12Z WITH INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS. MODELS SLOWING
TIMING OF SNOW AND LOWER CIGS DOWN UNTIL 12Z OR AFTER. STILL LOOKS
LIKE MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY AT BLF/LWB/BCB BETWEEN 17-18Z...WITH
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES MOVING IN A COUPLE HOURS BEFORE THIS.
CONFIDENCE HIGH IN MVFR CIGS BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT IFR
CIGS/VSBYS BUT POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON FRIDAY.

FLURRIES ALSO EXPECTED AT DAN/ROA...WITH LOW END VFR CIGS.

WINDS LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. ONCE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST
WINDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST FRIDAY EVENING AND
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH SAT MORNING IN THE WEST...WITH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 TO
40 KTS...ESPECIALLY ROA/BCB.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

EXPECT VFR SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SUBSIDING
WINDS...THOUGH SOME MVFR INTO SAT NIGHT POSSIBLE AT BLF.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT POOR FLYING WEATHER WILL TAKE PLACE
DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...BUT FURTHER UPDATES FROM THE LONGER RANGE MODELS
MAY IMPACT THE DETAILS ON PRECIPITATION TYPE AND STORM TRACK.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR VAZ007-009-015.
NC...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NCZ001-002-018.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR WVZ042>044-507.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR WVZ042-043-508.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR WVZ508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...AMS/RAB
AVIATION...PW/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 121019
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
519 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND BRING
WINDY CONDITIONS AND BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION...ALONG
WITH SOME SNOW FOR THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS...THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. BY MONDAY ANOTHER WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT
THE REGION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST FRIDAY...

THE MAIN WEATHER PLAYERS FOR OUR REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND SETS
OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
BELIEVE THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION WILL SEE AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW
BEFORE THE UPSLOPE REALLY KICKS IN AND PROVIDES ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
ALONG THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES THROUGH TONIGHT. THE AIR MOVING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT IS QUITE COLD INDEED AND WILL CREATE SOME VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND EVEN A BIT OF CAPE...WHICH MAY BRING US ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR A PERIOD OF THUNDERSNOW EARLY TONIGHT. MESO MODELS ALSO INDICATE
A DECENT UPSTREAM CONTRIBUTION TO THE MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
BELIEVE THESE FACTORS WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
GENERALLY IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES WITH SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE SO WILL ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA
FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO START TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND GOOD MOMENTUM
TRANSFER IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALLOW FOR QUITE A BIT OF WIND
OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH EXPECTED ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO GENERATE WIND CHILL VALUES OF 5 TO 15
BELOW ZERO...WITH READINGS TO 25 BELOW FOR WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY IN
WEST VIRGINIA. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ON SATURDAY BUT THE
COMBINATION OF WIND AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE VERY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE AREA ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH A WIND CHILL WARNING FOR
WESTERN GREENBRIER. CONDITIONS EAST OF THE RIDGE WILL NOT BE QUITE AS
SEVERE AS LOWS TONIGHT REACH THE 15 TO 20 DEGREE RANGE WITH WIND CHILL
VALUES INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EST FRIDAY...

COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON STILL SLATED TO BE SPREADING INTO THE
REGION FOR SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT SUNDAY
MORNING. THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF THE INTENSITY OF THE COLD AIR
MASS JUST SLIGHTLY WITH EACH SUCCEEDING RUN...NOW STOPPING AROUND
-22C ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. SIMILAR EVENTS
THE PAST TWO YEARS HAVE SEEN READINGS CLOSER TO -25/-26C...SO FEEL
CONFIDENT THAT MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL FALL A
COUPLE OF DEGREES SHY OF WHAT WE SAW THE LAST COUPLE OF YEARS WITH
SIMILAR ARCTIC OUTBREAKS. ALSO...SNOW COVER IS LIMITED EAST OF
THE ALLEGHANY FRONT AND THE MOUNTAINS OF SW VA/NW NC...SO THAT
WILL ALSO NOT HELP DRIVE TEMPERATURES TO THE LEVELS WE SAW AROUND
THIS TIME LAST YEAR. NONETHELESS...IT WILL BE BITTERLY COLD AND
VERY WINDY...PROMPTING A CONTINUATION OF THE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND THE WARNING FOR WESTERN GREENBRIER.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
NEAR 0 TO -5F AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THE ADVISORIES/WARNINGS
ARE WARRANTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS IT WILL TAKE VERY
LITTLE FOR WIND CHILLS TO MEET CRITERIA WITH TEMPS THAT LOW.

UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN SATURDAY MORNING
FAIRLY QUICKLY AS THE VERY DRY ARCTIC AIR MASS SPREADS INTO THE
REGION. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS GOING THROUGH MID-DAY...THEN END THEM...ALBEIT SOME
FLURRIES COULD CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS ARCTIC COLD-
ADVECTION SQUEAKS OUT ANY REMAINING MOISTURE. WINDS WILL BE
STRONG AND GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT LIKELY DROP BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THAT
IS LUMPED INTO THE WSW.

THE ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING WITH...AS
NOTED ABOVE...BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES...BUT WINDS TRENDING
TOWARD CALM. BY AFTERNOON...THE ARCTIC HIGH HAS ALREADY SHIFTED
TOWARD THE VA/MD COAST WITH RETURN FLOW EVIDENT ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHWEST VA. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE QUICKLY MOVES TOWARD
THE REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASING MOISTURE FROM TOP
DOWN. THE ANTECEDENT AIR MASS WILL CLEARLY BE VERY DRY AND COLD
AND NOT SURE HOW QUICKLY THE AIR MASS WILL SATURATE TO ALLOW
GENERATED PRECIPITATION ALOFT TO REACH THE GROUND. INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THIS SHOULD BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE AFTER SUNSET IN THE WEST AND
CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT IN THE EAST. THUS...WILL LEAVE THE DAYTIME
HOURS OF SUNDAY DRY WITH POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT. ALL PRECIPITATION
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA AS THE SOUNDINGS
REMAIN BELOW FREEZING AT ALL LEVELS.

AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY...THE SITUATION BECOMES INCREASINGLY
COMPLICATED. THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF
THE REGION EARLY MONDAY...WHILE A STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT
WAVE DEEPENS INTO THE MID-SOUTH. DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
THEN DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THIS SECOND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH...MOVING TOWARD THE EASTERN TN VALLEY BY
MONDAY EVENING. ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE TAKEN A SLIGHT WEST JOG
WITH THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE...RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
WARMER AIR FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TO ENCROACH ON THE REGION.
NONETHELESS...THE ANTECEDENT AIR MASS WILL BE VERY COLD AND MODELS
OFTEN ADVERTISE A WARMUP TOO QUICKLY WITH THIS TYPE OF SITUATION.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...THEN BEGIN
TO LIFT NORTHWARD EARLY TUE. THIS IS WHEN THE P-TYPE ISSUES WILL
BEGIN WITH A TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN AND
PERHAPS EVEN RAIN IN PARTS OF THE PIEDMONT. THIS ENTIRE PERIOD
WILL EVENTUALLY HAVE TO BE HANDLED BY TOP-DOWN OR SIMILAR P-TYPE
PROCEDURES...BUT GIVEN IT IS STILL OUT IN THE DAY 4 AND BEYOND
PERIOD....WILL STICK WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE FOR NOW. ALTHOUGH
SNOW/SLEET/ICE AMOUNTS STILL HIGHLY IN QUESTION...IT STILL APPEARS
QUITE CERTAIN THAT WINTER STORM CRITERIA WILL LIKELY BE MET ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA IN THE SUN NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUE TIME
FRAME...WITH STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THIS
PERIOD WILL LIKELY NEED TO FOLLOW ON THE HEELS OF THE CURRENT
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EST THURSDAY...

A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW...REMAINING MOSTLY INLAND...WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE CWA TUE...MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC BY
EVENING. SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR MUCH
OF THE CWA...BUT POTENTIALLY TRANSITIONING TO RAIN ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. BUFKIT SHOWS CONSIDERABLE VERTICAL MOTION IN THE SNOW
GROWTH ZONE EARLY TUESDAY...SO THERE COULD BE A BURST OF HEAVY
SNOW/SLEET BEFORE THE DRY SLOT SPREADS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND SHUTS OFF THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION...WHICH SHOULD
OCCUR BY MIDDAY TUE. BY EVENING...COLDER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER
BACK INTO THE WESTERN AREAS AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS COMMENCE ONCE
AGAIN.

IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG SYNOPTIC SYSTEM TUESDAY...ANOTHER
CLIPPER IS EVIDENT IN CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL
WARMING OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE LOOKS LIMITED DURING THIS PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS SHOWED SUBSTANTIAL WARMING
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...THAT IS NOT EVIDENT TODAY. MEXMOS KEEPS
WESTERN AREAS MOSTLY AT OR BELOW FREEZING THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH
ONLY LIMITED WARMING DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE
CLIPPER TUE NIGHT/WED...COULD BRING ADDITIONAL MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS TO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA BEFORE MOVING
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. OUTSIDE OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...THAT
SHOULD BE THE LAST OF ANY SYNOPTIC-SCALE INDUCED PRECIPITATION FOR
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1150 PM EST THURSDAY...

VFR THROUGH 12Z WITH INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS. MODELS SLOWING
TIMING OF SNOW AND LOWER CIGS DOWN UNTIL 12Z OR AFTER. STILL LOOKS
LIKE MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY AT BLF/LWB/BCB BETWEEN 17-18Z...WITH
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES MOVING IN A COUPLE HOURS BEFORE THIS.
CONFIDENCE HIGH IN MVFR CIGS BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT IFR
CIGS/VSBYS BUT POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON FRIDAY.

FLURRIES ALSO EXPECTED AT DAN/ROA...WITH LOW END VFR CIGS.

WINDS LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. ONCE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST
WINDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST FRIDAY EVENING AND
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH SAT MORNING IN THE WEST...WITH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 TO
40 KTS...ESPECIALLY ROA/BCB.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

EXPECT VFR SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SUBSIDING
WINDS...THOUGH SOME MVFR INTO SAT NIGHT POSSIBLE AT BLF.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT POOR FLYING WEATHER WILL TAKE PLACE
DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...BUT FURTHER UPDATES FROM THE LONGER RANGE MODELS
MAY IMPACT THE DETAILS ON PRECIPITATION TYPE AND STORM TRACK.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR VAZ007-009-015.
NC...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NCZ001-002-018.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR WVZ042>044-507.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR WVZ042-043-508.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR WVZ508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...AMS/RAB
AVIATION...PW/WP



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 120902
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
402 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS MORNING...LIFTING
NORTHEAST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA COASTS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR
THIS YEAR. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK HI PRES WAS RIGHT OVR THE FA EARLY THIS MORNG...PROVIDING
DRY/COLD CONDITIONS...WITH INCREASING HI AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
THE HI WILL SLIDE OFFSHR LATER THIS MORNING...WITH ATTENTION
QUICKLY TURNING TO WEAK LO PRES DEVELOPING ALONG THE SE CST...AS
SHRTWV ENERGY DIGS FM THE MIDWEST TWD THE NC/SC CST. TEMPS EARLY
THIS MORNG WERE RANGING FM THE UPR TEENS TO MID 20S ACRS THE
REGION WITH DWPTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LWR TEENS. THE LO PRES
AREA WILL INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY...AS IT TRACKS NE OFF THE NC AND VA
CSTS LATER THIS AFTN INTO TNGT. HAVE KEPT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES
IN PLACE FOR NE NC AND EXTRM SE VA...AND GENERALLY MAINTAINED SNOW
AMTS FOR THESE AREAS. BUT...HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS AND THUS
DECREASED SNOW AMTS FARTHER N AND W INTO THE PIEDMONT...DUE TO
LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE (QPF AMTS) AND DYNAMICS (LIFT) IN THESE
LOCATIONS. BEST DYNAMICS (LIFT/FRONTOGENETIC FORCING) AND DEEPER
MOISTURE (HIGHEST QPF AMTS) REMAIN ACRS EXTRM SE VA AND NE NC FOR
THIS EVENT...AND THUS STILL COULD GET 2-3 INCHES OF SNOW (POSSIBLY
UP TO 4 INCHES) OVR NE NC COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE ALBEMARLE SND
AND ATLC CST...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES (POSSIBLY UP TO 3 INCHES) OVR
SE VA (HAMPTON ROADS AREA) SW INTO INTERIOR NE NC COUNTIES. VERY
LATE THIS AFTN INTO EARLY THIS EVENG...SOME SLEET MAY MIX IN WITH
THE SNOW NEAR THE NC CST. FOR INTERIOR SE VA...NE ACRS THE MIDDLE
PENINSULA INTO THE LWR MD ERN SHR AND INCLUDING ACCOMACK
COUNTY...SNOW AMTS COULD END UP BETWEEN 0.5 INCH AND 1 INCH.
BUT...NO ADVSY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOCATIONS. PLEASE SEE LATEST
WSW FOR MORE INFO. SNOW COMES TO AN END THIS EVENG/EARLY TNGT...AS
THE SFC LO PUSHES WELL ENE OF THE MID-ATLC CST AND THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY PUSHES THRU THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW/ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE POLAR VORTEX DIGS
OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. ~1040MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE MIDWEST...USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WINDY SAT WITH NW WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO
25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH (STRONGER NEAR THE COAST AND
OVER THE EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS SAT FORECAST TO WARM ONLY INTO THE
MID 20S NW TO LOW 30S SE (-2 STD DEV) UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE IN THE TEENS...RESULTING IN A
RAW/COLD/WINDY DAY. TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS SAT NIGHT. WINDS DECOUPLE INLAND AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...BUT WIND CHILLS STILL FORECAST IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
INLAND TO 0 TO 8 BELOW NRN NECK TO THE ERN SHORE. THE HIGH CENTERS
OVER THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY WITH NLY WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. SLIGHTLY
COLDER SUN WITH DECREASED MIXING. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER
20S (-2 STD DEV) UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ATTENTION
TURNING TO A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. THERE
REMAINS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS...ALTHOUGH
THE 11/12Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING SLOWER...AND WARMER FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. THE 11/12Z GFS CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT PCPN MONDAY AS A NRN STREAM TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WOULD MAINLY FALL AS SN OR SN/IP...WITH A TRANSITION TO
RA CLOSER TO THE COAST BY AFTERNOON. SUBSTANTIAL WARMING ALOFT WOULD
GENERALLY RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO RA MONDAY NIGHT...ASIDE FROM THE
FAR NW WHERE MIXED PCPN COULD PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH AN
IN-SITU WEDGE IN PLACE. THE LATEST DATA SCOURS OUT THE WEDGE BY
AFTERNOON WITH P-TYPE BECOMING RA EVEN IN THE FAR NW. DRYING OCCURS
MIDWEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE
CLIPPING THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
OF COOLER AIR AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS MONDAY WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOW 30S ALONG
AND W OF I-95...WHILE COASTAL LOCATIONS WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOW 40S. TEMPERATURES REMAIN STEADY MONDAY EVENING AND BEGIN TO RISE
OVERNIGHT EVENTUALLY WARMING INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S...FOLLOWED BY
LOW 40S NE...TO UPPER 40S SW THURSDAY. MORNING LOWS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CNDTNS ALL AREAS THRU AT LEAST 15Z AS HIGH/MID LVL CLDS OVRSPRD
THE RGN. SNOW FROM APPRCHG LOW PRS TO THE SW OVRSPRDS THE SERN TAF
SITES ARND 18Z. VSBY XPCTD TO DROP TO 1/2SM FOR A 2-4 HR PRD (20-00Z)
AT ECG ORF AND PHF PER LTST MODEL GUID. THIS WUD BE THE TIME FRAME
FOR SNOW ACCUMLS. ADDED SOME IP AT ECG AS PCPN COMES TO AN END ARND
00Z DUE TO MARINE INFLUENCES. CUD EVEN SEE SOME PL MIXING IN AT
ORF...BUT THNK SNOW WILL BE THE MAIN PCPN TYPE THERE.

SBY LOOKS TO GET SOME SNOW BTWN 22-02Z AS WELL BUT DID NOT GO AS
LOW WITH THE VSBY THERE AS LESS THAN ONE INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED.
LOW DP TMPS AND DRY AIRMASS OVR THE PIEDMONT SHUD PREVENT ANYTHING
MORE THAN SCT FLURRIES AT RIC.

OUTLOOK...GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOP FRIDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY. VFR AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
PCPN DEVELOPS MONDAY AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
SW. PCPN BEGINS AS SNOW UNDER A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUT THIS BREAKS
DOWN AND WARMER AIR WORKS IN AND CHANGES SNOW TO RAIN FROM SE TO NW.

RAIN CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
DRY WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES TODAY AS THE MARINE AREA WINDS WILL GNRLY BE AOB 15KTS
AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRS PROGGED TO MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THIS LOW WILL NOT BRING ANY WIND RELATED MARINE
HEADLINES...THE ASSCTD PCPN WILL BRING REDUCED VSBYS IN SNOW/SLEET
OF VARYING INTENSITIES LATE THIS AFTRN AND EVE.

AS THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. A NW WIND WILL AVERAGE 25-30KT
WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35-40KT OVER THE OCEAN AND BAY. SEAS BUILD TO
5-8FT WITH 4-5 FT WAVES IN THE BAY. GALE FLAGS HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR
LATE TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND...WIND
SPEEDS HAVE BEEN CAPPED AT HIGH-END SCA AT THIS TIME.

EXPANDED THE FREEZING SPRAY WINDOW TO INCLUDE SAT...SAT NITE AND SUN
MORN GIVEN FCSTD WND SPEEDS / GUSTS COMBINED WITH AIR TMPS BELOW 30
DEGREES. LIMITED THE FREEZING SPRAY TO THE MORE OPEN CHES BAY AND
CSTL WATER AREAS. PER COORD WITH PHL...HOISTED FREEZING SPRAY ADVSRY
FOR THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL. THIS MEANS LIGHT TO MDT ACCUMULATION OF
ICE CAN BE EXPECTED ON VESSELS.

THE WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES
ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FORM THE SW EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE
BLOW-OUT TIDES / LOW WATER ADVISORIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST
     TONIGHT FOR NCZ012>014.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST
     TONIGHT FOR NCZ015>017-030>032-102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST
     TONIGHT FOR VAZ092-093-095>098-100-523>525.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ633-635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...SAM/TMG
SHORT TERM...SAM/TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KLWX 120837
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
337 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN ITS WAKE FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE
AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIPRES ATOP CWFA ATTM. HWVR...HIGH CLDS ALREADY STREAMING EWD. SHUD
GET MID DECK SOON TOO...AS WE ENTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF WAA. THE THEME
FOR THE DAY WILL BE FOR THICKENING/LOWERING CLDS...AHD OF A NRN
STREAM S/WV AND REINFORCING CDFNT. SCT-NMRS SHSN SHUD ACCOMPANY
THELIFT AHD OF THE FNT...WHICH MAY MAKE IT TO I-81 BY THE END OF
THEDAY TEMPS ONLY A PINCH HIER THAN YDA...AND STILL WAY BLO AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
CFP TNGT...BRINGING A HOST OF POTL HAZARDS. ISSUES ARE WINDS...
SNOW... AND WIND CHILL.

SNOW...PARAMETERS LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW
COINCIDENT W/ THE FNT TNGT.  SCALE OF THREAT LKLY FINER THAN
GDNC...SO AM ABV MOS. ACCUMS WUD BE UNDER AN INCH...AND WUD BE ONT
HE ERN SHORE BEFORE MIDNGT.

IN THE MTNS...THE TRAJ FVRBL FOR UPSLP TNGT-SAT...AND THE DRY AMS
WUD LEAD TO A HIGH SNOW RATIO. THIS WL ACCUM SVRL INCHES. HWVR...AM
JUST UNDER ADVY CRITERIA...WHICH IS SOMEWHAT FITTING SINCE SNOW
GROWTH ZONE LOW...AND NOT INTERSECTING THE BEST LIFT.

WINDS...ATMOS WL BE WELL MIXED IN STRONG CAA POST-FRONT. MDL SNDGS
SUGGEST 30-SOMETHING KT GUSTS. WUDNT RULE OUT A FEW 40 KTS.
CONFIDENCE NOT QUITE THERE FOR WIND ADVYS. ADMITTEDLY ITS CLOSE FOR
THE MTNS.

TEMPS...CONTINING TEMP FCSTS ON THE LOW END OF GDNC...BOTH MIN-T
TNGT AND MAXT SAT.

WIND CHILLS...COMBINE THE PREV TWO BULLETS...AND WIND CHILLS WL
DEFINITELY BE A FACTOR. BEST CHC AT ADVY IN THE MTNS. IT FALLS ABT 5-
10 DEGF SHORT ELSW. PROJECTING ONWARD THOUGH...THE MTNS ALMOST
THREATEN WIND CHILL WARNING CRITERIA...SPCLY SAT NGT INTO SUN.
ELSW...FCST VALUES FLIRT W/ ADVY CRITERIA SAT NGT-SUN. MINDFUL THAT
WE/RE SVRL CYCLES OUT...AND NOTHING SEEMS SLAM-DUNK OTHER THAN WIND
CHILL ADVYS IN THE MTNS...WUD RATHER NOT MAKE FIRM WRNG/ADVY
DECISION YET. COGNIZANT OF THE THREAT THO...WL BE ISSUING WIND CHILL
WATCHES FOR THE MTNS...WHERE VALUES ARE THE LOWEST. OTHER COUNTIES
WL BE CARRIED IN THE HWO. HOPEFULLY...LATER SHIFTS WL BE ABLE TO
MAKE BETTER-INFORMED DECISIONS.

BY SUN...THE RDG WL BE OVERHEAD...AND THE ONLY HAZARD LEFT WL BE
COLD TEMPS.  MAY HV PCPN RETURNING LT SUN NGT AHD OF NXT SYSTEM. HV
CHCS TO COVER. MORE IN LONG TERM DSCN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
RETREATING QUICKLY ON MON WITH MOISTURE ADVANCING QUICKLY NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF A SRN STREAM SYSTEM FOR A POTENTIAL BIG MESS MON-TUE WITH
HEAVY PRECIP AMOUNTS. POTENTIAL FOR 6+ INCHES OF SNOW APPEARS TO BE
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WITH SIGNIFICANT ICING FROM
THERE TO THE ROUTE 15 CORRIDOR AND LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP TO MOSTLY
RAIN EAST OF THERE. THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN MODELS TO
BRING SFC TEMPS ABV FREEZING EVERYWHERE BY 18Z TUE WITH 50S POSSIBLE
OVER EASTERN AREAS AS H85 TEMPS CLIMB ABV 5C AS STRONG SRLY WINDS
DEVELOP. IN ADDITION TO WINTRY PRECIP CONCERNS...LATEST 00Z ECMWF
INDICATES HEAVY PRECIP AMOUNTS UP TO 3.5 INCHES WATER EQUIVALENT
WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLOODING ISSUES. WARMER TEMPS...RUNOFF AND
SNOWMELT COULD LEAD TO ICE JAM FLOODING PROBLEMS ESPECIALLY AFTER
THIS WEEKEND`S FRIGID AIR MASS.

BY MID WEEK...SRN STREAM SYSTEM MERGES/PHASES WITH A NRN STREAM
DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH SYSTEM INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
LEADING TO STRONG NW FLOW AND DRYING CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PRIMARILY VFR THRU VALID TAF PD. CLDS WL BE OVERSPREADING THE
TERMINALS TDA...FIRST HIGH/MID DECK...AND SHUD HV STCU BY EVNG.
CDFNT COMING THIS EVNG...PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHSN. AREAL
CVRG/CONFIDENCE IN A PT FCST THE CONCERN. THUS...THESE DO NOT APPEAR
IN TAFS ATTM. WUD HV BREIF IFR IF AIRFIELD AFFECTED.

WINDS BECOME NW AND PICK UP POST-FRONT...WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE MID
30S AFTR MIDNGT TNGT THRU SAT AFTN.

HIPRES BLDS SAT NGT-SUN. WINDS GRDLY DIMINISHING. NO OTHER
RESTRICTIONS ANTICIPATED.

SIG WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE REGION MON-TUE WITH HEAVY WINTRY
PRECIP MON-MON NIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ESPECIALLY AT
KCHO...KIAD AND KMRB BEFORE IT TURNS TO ALL RAIN TUE AFTERNOON. IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY MON-TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HV DIMINISHED...AND WL HV A BRIEF PD OF SUB-SCA CONDS TDA INTO
THIS EVNG. CDFNT COMING TNGT...PRODUCING NW WINDS W/ 30-40KT GUSTS.
THREAT WUD LKLY BEGIN ARND/JUST AFTR MIDNGT. FOR SIMPLICITY...HV
RAISED GLW TNGT...AND CARRIED IT THRU SAT NGT. SCA LKLY ON SUN...
WHICH CAN BE ADDRESSED LATER.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     MDZ501-502.
VA...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     VAZ503-504.
WV...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     WVZ501>506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...HTS/LFR
MARINE...HTS/LFR




000
FXUS61 KLWX 120837
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
337 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN ITS WAKE FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE
AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIPRES ATOP CWFA ATTM. HWVR...HIGH CLDS ALREADY STREAMING EWD. SHUD
GET MID DECK SOON TOO...AS WE ENTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF WAA. THE THEME
FOR THE DAY WILL BE FOR THICKENING/LOWERING CLDS...AHD OF A NRN
STREAM S/WV AND REINFORCING CDFNT. SCT-NMRS SHSN SHUD ACCOMPANY
THELIFT AHD OF THE FNT...WHICH MAY MAKE IT TO I-81 BY THE END OF
THEDAY TEMPS ONLY A PINCH HIER THAN YDA...AND STILL WAY BLO AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
CFP TNGT...BRINGING A HOST OF POTL HAZARDS. ISSUES ARE WINDS...
SNOW... AND WIND CHILL.

SNOW...PARAMETERS LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW
COINCIDENT W/ THE FNT TNGT.  SCALE OF THREAT LKLY FINER THAN
GDNC...SO AM ABV MOS. ACCUMS WUD BE UNDER AN INCH...AND WUD BE ONT
HE ERN SHORE BEFORE MIDNGT.

IN THE MTNS...THE TRAJ FVRBL FOR UPSLP TNGT-SAT...AND THE DRY AMS
WUD LEAD TO A HIGH SNOW RATIO. THIS WL ACCUM SVRL INCHES. HWVR...AM
JUST UNDER ADVY CRITERIA...WHICH IS SOMEWHAT FITTING SINCE SNOW
GROWTH ZONE LOW...AND NOT INTERSECTING THE BEST LIFT.

WINDS...ATMOS WL BE WELL MIXED IN STRONG CAA POST-FRONT. MDL SNDGS
SUGGEST 30-SOMETHING KT GUSTS. WUDNT RULE OUT A FEW 40 KTS.
CONFIDENCE NOT QUITE THERE FOR WIND ADVYS. ADMITTEDLY ITS CLOSE FOR
THE MTNS.

TEMPS...CONTINING TEMP FCSTS ON THE LOW END OF GDNC...BOTH MIN-T
TNGT AND MAXT SAT.

WIND CHILLS...COMBINE THE PREV TWO BULLETS...AND WIND CHILLS WL
DEFINITELY BE A FACTOR. BEST CHC AT ADVY IN THE MTNS. IT FALLS ABT 5-
10 DEGF SHORT ELSW. PROJECTING ONWARD THOUGH...THE MTNS ALMOST
THREATEN WIND CHILL WARNING CRITERIA...SPCLY SAT NGT INTO SUN.
ELSW...FCST VALUES FLIRT W/ ADVY CRITERIA SAT NGT-SUN. MINDFUL THAT
WE/RE SVRL CYCLES OUT...AND NOTHING SEEMS SLAM-DUNK OTHER THAN WIND
CHILL ADVYS IN THE MTNS...WUD RATHER NOT MAKE FIRM WRNG/ADVY
DECISION YET. COGNIZANT OF THE THREAT THO...WL BE ISSUING WIND CHILL
WATCHES FOR THE MTNS...WHERE VALUES ARE THE LOWEST. OTHER COUNTIES
WL BE CARRIED IN THE HWO. HOPEFULLY...LATER SHIFTS WL BE ABLE TO
MAKE BETTER-INFORMED DECISIONS.

BY SUN...THE RDG WL BE OVERHEAD...AND THE ONLY HAZARD LEFT WL BE
COLD TEMPS.  MAY HV PCPN RETURNING LT SUN NGT AHD OF NXT SYSTEM. HV
CHCS TO COVER. MORE IN LONG TERM DSCN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
RETREATING QUICKLY ON MON WITH MOISTURE ADVANCING QUICKLY NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF A SRN STREAM SYSTEM FOR A POTENTIAL BIG MESS MON-TUE WITH
HEAVY PRECIP AMOUNTS. POTENTIAL FOR 6+ INCHES OF SNOW APPEARS TO BE
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WITH SIGNIFICANT ICING FROM
THERE TO THE ROUTE 15 CORRIDOR AND LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP TO MOSTLY
RAIN EAST OF THERE. THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN MODELS TO
BRING SFC TEMPS ABV FREEZING EVERYWHERE BY 18Z TUE WITH 50S POSSIBLE
OVER EASTERN AREAS AS H85 TEMPS CLIMB ABV 5C AS STRONG SRLY WINDS
DEVELOP. IN ADDITION TO WINTRY PRECIP CONCERNS...LATEST 00Z ECMWF
INDICATES HEAVY PRECIP AMOUNTS UP TO 3.5 INCHES WATER EQUIVALENT
WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLOODING ISSUES. WARMER TEMPS...RUNOFF AND
SNOWMELT COULD LEAD TO ICE JAM FLOODING PROBLEMS ESPECIALLY AFTER
THIS WEEKEND`S FRIGID AIR MASS.

BY MID WEEK...SRN STREAM SYSTEM MERGES/PHASES WITH A NRN STREAM
DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH SYSTEM INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
LEADING TO STRONG NW FLOW AND DRYING CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PRIMARILY VFR THRU VALID TAF PD. CLDS WL BE OVERSPREADING THE
TERMINALS TDA...FIRST HIGH/MID DECK...AND SHUD HV STCU BY EVNG.
CDFNT COMING THIS EVNG...PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHSN. AREAL
CVRG/CONFIDENCE IN A PT FCST THE CONCERN. THUS...THESE DO NOT APPEAR
IN TAFS ATTM. WUD HV BREIF IFR IF AIRFIELD AFFECTED.

WINDS BECOME NW AND PICK UP POST-FRONT...WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE MID
30S AFTR MIDNGT TNGT THRU SAT AFTN.

HIPRES BLDS SAT NGT-SUN. WINDS GRDLY DIMINISHING. NO OTHER
RESTRICTIONS ANTICIPATED.

SIG WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE REGION MON-TUE WITH HEAVY WINTRY
PRECIP MON-MON NIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ESPECIALLY AT
KCHO...KIAD AND KMRB BEFORE IT TURNS TO ALL RAIN TUE AFTERNOON. IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY MON-TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HV DIMINISHED...AND WL HV A BRIEF PD OF SUB-SCA CONDS TDA INTO
THIS EVNG. CDFNT COMING TNGT...PRODUCING NW WINDS W/ 30-40KT GUSTS.
THREAT WUD LKLY BEGIN ARND/JUST AFTR MIDNGT. FOR SIMPLICITY...HV
RAISED GLW TNGT...AND CARRIED IT THRU SAT NGT. SCA LKLY ON SUN...
WHICH CAN BE ADDRESSED LATER.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     MDZ501-502.
VA...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     VAZ503-504.
WV...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     WVZ501>506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...HTS/LFR
MARINE...HTS/LFR



000
FXUS61 KLWX 120837
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
337 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN ITS WAKE FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE
AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIPRES ATOP CWFA ATTM. HWVR...HIGH CLDS ALREADY STREAMING EWD. SHUD
GET MID DECK SOON TOO...AS WE ENTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF WAA. THE THEME
FOR THE DAY WILL BE FOR THICKENING/LOWERING CLDS...AHD OF A NRN
STREAM S/WV AND REINFORCING CDFNT. SCT-NMRS SHSN SHUD ACCOMPANY
THELIFT AHD OF THE FNT...WHICH MAY MAKE IT TO I-81 BY THE END OF
THEDAY TEMPS ONLY A PINCH HIER THAN YDA...AND STILL WAY BLO AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
CFP TNGT...BRINGING A HOST OF POTL HAZARDS. ISSUES ARE WINDS...
SNOW... AND WIND CHILL.

SNOW...PARAMETERS LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW
COINCIDENT W/ THE FNT TNGT.  SCALE OF THREAT LKLY FINER THAN
GDNC...SO AM ABV MOS. ACCUMS WUD BE UNDER AN INCH...AND WUD BE ONT
HE ERN SHORE BEFORE MIDNGT.

IN THE MTNS...THE TRAJ FVRBL FOR UPSLP TNGT-SAT...AND THE DRY AMS
WUD LEAD TO A HIGH SNOW RATIO. THIS WL ACCUM SVRL INCHES. HWVR...AM
JUST UNDER ADVY CRITERIA...WHICH IS SOMEWHAT FITTING SINCE SNOW
GROWTH ZONE LOW...AND NOT INTERSECTING THE BEST LIFT.

WINDS...ATMOS WL BE WELL MIXED IN STRONG CAA POST-FRONT. MDL SNDGS
SUGGEST 30-SOMETHING KT GUSTS. WUDNT RULE OUT A FEW 40 KTS.
CONFIDENCE NOT QUITE THERE FOR WIND ADVYS. ADMITTEDLY ITS CLOSE FOR
THE MTNS.

TEMPS...CONTINING TEMP FCSTS ON THE LOW END OF GDNC...BOTH MIN-T
TNGT AND MAXT SAT.

WIND CHILLS...COMBINE THE PREV TWO BULLETS...AND WIND CHILLS WL
DEFINITELY BE A FACTOR. BEST CHC AT ADVY IN THE MTNS. IT FALLS ABT 5-
10 DEGF SHORT ELSW. PROJECTING ONWARD THOUGH...THE MTNS ALMOST
THREATEN WIND CHILL WARNING CRITERIA...SPCLY SAT NGT INTO SUN.
ELSW...FCST VALUES FLIRT W/ ADVY CRITERIA SAT NGT-SUN. MINDFUL THAT
WE/RE SVRL CYCLES OUT...AND NOTHING SEEMS SLAM-DUNK OTHER THAN WIND
CHILL ADVYS IN THE MTNS...WUD RATHER NOT MAKE FIRM WRNG/ADVY
DECISION YET. COGNIZANT OF THE THREAT THO...WL BE ISSUING WIND CHILL
WATCHES FOR THE MTNS...WHERE VALUES ARE THE LOWEST. OTHER COUNTIES
WL BE CARRIED IN THE HWO. HOPEFULLY...LATER SHIFTS WL BE ABLE TO
MAKE BETTER-INFORMED DECISIONS.

BY SUN...THE RDG WL BE OVERHEAD...AND THE ONLY HAZARD LEFT WL BE
COLD TEMPS.  MAY HV PCPN RETURNING LT SUN NGT AHD OF NXT SYSTEM. HV
CHCS TO COVER. MORE IN LONG TERM DSCN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
RETREATING QUICKLY ON MON WITH MOISTURE ADVANCING QUICKLY NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF A SRN STREAM SYSTEM FOR A POTENTIAL BIG MESS MON-TUE WITH
HEAVY PRECIP AMOUNTS. POTENTIAL FOR 6+ INCHES OF SNOW APPEARS TO BE
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WITH SIGNIFICANT ICING FROM
THERE TO THE ROUTE 15 CORRIDOR AND LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP TO MOSTLY
RAIN EAST OF THERE. THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN MODELS TO
BRING SFC TEMPS ABV FREEZING EVERYWHERE BY 18Z TUE WITH 50S POSSIBLE
OVER EASTERN AREAS AS H85 TEMPS CLIMB ABV 5C AS STRONG SRLY WINDS
DEVELOP. IN ADDITION TO WINTRY PRECIP CONCERNS...LATEST 00Z ECMWF
INDICATES HEAVY PRECIP AMOUNTS UP TO 3.5 INCHES WATER EQUIVALENT
WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLOODING ISSUES. WARMER TEMPS...RUNOFF AND
SNOWMELT COULD LEAD TO ICE JAM FLOODING PROBLEMS ESPECIALLY AFTER
THIS WEEKEND`S FRIGID AIR MASS.

BY MID WEEK...SRN STREAM SYSTEM MERGES/PHASES WITH A NRN STREAM
DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH SYSTEM INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
LEADING TO STRONG NW FLOW AND DRYING CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PRIMARILY VFR THRU VALID TAF PD. CLDS WL BE OVERSPREADING THE
TERMINALS TDA...FIRST HIGH/MID DECK...AND SHUD HV STCU BY EVNG.
CDFNT COMING THIS EVNG...PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHSN. AREAL
CVRG/CONFIDENCE IN A PT FCST THE CONCERN. THUS...THESE DO NOT APPEAR
IN TAFS ATTM. WUD HV BREIF IFR IF AIRFIELD AFFECTED.

WINDS BECOME NW AND PICK UP POST-FRONT...WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE MID
30S AFTR MIDNGT TNGT THRU SAT AFTN.

HIPRES BLDS SAT NGT-SUN. WINDS GRDLY DIMINISHING. NO OTHER
RESTRICTIONS ANTICIPATED.

SIG WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE REGION MON-TUE WITH HEAVY WINTRY
PRECIP MON-MON NIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ESPECIALLY AT
KCHO...KIAD AND KMRB BEFORE IT TURNS TO ALL RAIN TUE AFTERNOON. IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY MON-TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HV DIMINISHED...AND WL HV A BRIEF PD OF SUB-SCA CONDS TDA INTO
THIS EVNG. CDFNT COMING TNGT...PRODUCING NW WINDS W/ 30-40KT GUSTS.
THREAT WUD LKLY BEGIN ARND/JUST AFTR MIDNGT. FOR SIMPLICITY...HV
RAISED GLW TNGT...AND CARRIED IT THRU SAT NGT. SCA LKLY ON SUN...
WHICH CAN BE ADDRESSED LATER.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     MDZ501-502.
VA...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     VAZ503-504.
WV...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     WVZ501>506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...HTS/LFR
MARINE...HTS/LFR




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 120511
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1211 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY MORNING...LIFTING
NORTHEAST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA COASTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS
YEAR. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK TNGT WITH DRY CONDS...SOME INCREASING
CLOUDS LATE...AND LO TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR TEENS TO LWR 20S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CENTERS ~1030MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH
VALLEY. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE GULF STATES. COLD
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. WIND
CHILLS IN THE 20S UNDER A SUNNY SKY.

FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. WINDS DECOUPLE
ALLOWING FOR EXCEPTIONAL RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS EVENING AS
DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE
LATE TONIGHT AS ATTENTION TURNS TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH. HEIGHT FALLS WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SC/NC
COAST BY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL LEVEL OFF
THRU LATE TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW
20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE NC COAST FRI MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PUSHES OVER THE CAROLINAS. SHORTWAVE AND INCREASING WINDS
ALOFT WILL PROVIDE ADEQUATE UVM OVER AN AREA OF 280-285K ISENTROPIC
LIFT ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE LOW. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE
MODEST...BUT MIXING RATIOS PROGGED TO REACH 3.0 TO 4.0 G/KG. THERMAL
PROFILES INDICATE HIGH RH/ICE IN THE SNOW GROWTH LAYER ALONG WITH
ABUNDANT LIFT DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. THE NET
RESULT WILL BE INCREASING POPS THRU MID TO LATE MORNING FRI AS SNOW
SPREADS INTO THE REGION. PRECIP CONTINUES THRU THE AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW LIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. QUESTION BECOMES HOW FAR NW
THE PRECIP SPREADS FRI AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE SE
COUNTIES TO CATEGORICAL...TAPERING OFF THE CHANCE OVER THE NW
COUNTIES. WITH THE LUXURY OF COLD CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES...SNOW
IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PREDOMINATE PTYPE THRU THE DURATION OF THE
EVENT. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE LATE FRIDAY NEAREST THE ALBEMARLE SOUND
WHERE A LITTLE SLEET MAY MIX WITH THE SNOW TOWARD THE END OF THE
EVENT. HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA
WHERE BANDING FROM FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE
LOW IS INDICATED IN THE MODELS. 2-4 INCHES IS EXPECTED IN THAT
AREA...REQUIRING A WINTER STORM WARNING. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST INTO
HAMPTON ROADS AND THE LOWER PENINSULA AND EASTERN SHORE...SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF TO 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES IN EFFECT. PLEASE SEE LATEST WSW FOR MORE INFO. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS TAPER OFF TO 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH TOWARD THE TRI CITIES AND MD
ERN SHORE...THEN A DUSTING TO HALF AN INCH RICHMOND NORTH AND WEST.
SNOW COMES TO AN END FRI EVENING AS THE SFC LOW PUSHES WELL OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY PUSHES THRU THE
REGION.

CLOSED UPPER LOW/ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE POLAR VORTEX DIGS OVER
NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. ~1040MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
MIDWEST...USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. WINDY SAT WITH NW WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH (STRONGER NEAR THE COAST AND OVER THE
EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS SAT FORECAST TO WARM ONLY INTO THE MID 20S NW
TO LOW 30S SE (-2 STD DEV) UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. WIND
CHILL VALUES WILL BE IN THE TEENS...RESULTING IN A RAW/COLD/WINDY
DAY. TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS SAT NIGHT.
WINDS DECOUPLE INLAND AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION...BUT WIND
CHILLS STILL FORECAST IN THE SINGLE DIGITS INLAND TO 0 TO 8 BELOW
NRN NECK TO THE ERN SHORE. THE HIGH CENTERS OVER THE LOCAL AREA
SUNDAY WITH NLY WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. SLIGHTLY COLDER SUN WITH
DECREASED MIXING. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 20S (-2 STD DEV)
UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ATTENTION
TURNING TO A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. THERE
REMAINS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS...ALTHOUGH
THE 11/12Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING SLOWER...AND WARMER FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. THE 11/12Z GFS CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT PCPN MONDAY AS A NRN STREAM TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WOULD MAINLY FALL AS SN OR SN/IP...WITH A TRANSITION TO
RA CLOSER TO THE COAST BY AFTERNOON. SUBSTANTIAL WARMING ALOFT WOULD
GENERALLY RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO RA MONDAY NIGHT...ASIDE FROM THE
FAR NW WHERE MIXED PCPN COULD PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH AN
IN-SITU WEDGE IN PLACE. THE LATEST DATA SCOURS OUT THE WEDGE BY
AFTERNOON WITH P-TYPE BECOMING RA EVEN IN THE FAR NW. DRYING OCCURS
MIDWEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE
CLIPPING THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
OF COOLER AIR AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS MONDAY WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOW 30S ALONG
AND W OF I-95...WHILE COASTAL LOCATIONS WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOW 40S. TEMPERATURES REMAIN STEADY MONDAY EVENING AND BEGIN TO RISE
OVERNIGHT EVENTUALLY WARMING INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S...FOLLOWED BY
LOW 40S NE...TO UPPER 40S SW THURSDAY. MORNING LOWS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CNDTNS ALL AREAS THRU AT LEAST 15Z AS HIGH/MID LVL CLDS OVRSPRD
THE RGN. SNOW FROM APPRCHG LOW PRS TO THE SW OVRSPRDS THE SERN TAF
SITES ARND 18Z. VSBY XPCTD TO DROP TO 1/2SM FOR A 2-4 HR PRD (20-00Z)
AT ECG ORF AND PHF PER LTST MODEL GUID. THIS WUD BE THE TIME FRAME
FOR SNOW ACCUMLS. ADDED SOME IP AT ECG AS PCPN COMES TO AN END ARND
00Z DUE TO MARINE INFLUENCES. CUD EVEN SEE SOME PL MIXING IN AT
ORF...BUT THNK SNOW WILL BE THE MAIN PCPN TYPE THERE.

SBY LOOKS TO GET SOME SNOW BTWN 22-02Z AS WELL BUT DID NOT GO AS
LOW WITH THE VSBY THERE AS LESS THAN ONE INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED.
LOW DP TMPS AND DRY AIRMASS OVR THE PIEDMONT SHUD PREVENT ANYTHING
MORE THAN SCT FLURRIES AT RIC.

OUTLOOK...GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOP FRIDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY. VFR AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
PCPN DEVELOPS MONDAY AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
SW. PCPN BEGINS AS SNOW UNDER A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUT THIS BREAKS
DOWN AND WARMER AIR WORKS IN AND CHANGES SNOW TO RAIN FROM SE TO NW.

RAIN CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
DRY WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FORM THE NW TONIGHT AND SETTLES
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY MORNING. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH
AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...WITH SCA HEADLINES GRADUALLY
ENDING THROUGH THE EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NE FRIDAY
WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY AFTERNOON THE WIND WILL BECOME E/NE S OF
CAPE CHARLES WITH GENERALLY A S/SE DIRECTION N OF CAPE CHARLES.
SPEEDS WILL BE AOB 15KT. ADDITIONALLY...THIS LOW WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF SN...WHICH WILL REDUCE VSBY. AS THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NE
FRIDAY NIGHT A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. A NW WIND WILL AVERAGE 25-30KT WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35-40KT OVER THE OCEAN AND BAY. SEAS BUILD TO 5-
8FT WITH 4-5 FT WAVES IN THE BAY. GALE FLAGS HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY (4TH PERIOD). THESE WILL LIKELY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NRN OCEAN ZONES. FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND...WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN
CAPPED AT HIGH-END SCA AT THIS TIME. FREEZING SPRAY IS LIKELY AS
TEMPERATURES PLUMMET SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES
ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FORM THE SW EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE
BLOW-OUT TIDES SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
     FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NCZ012>014.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR NCZ015>017-030>032-102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
     FRIDAY NIGHT FOR VAZ092-093-095>098-100-523>525.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM/TMG
NEAR TERM...MAS/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MPR/LSA
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 120511
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1211 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY MORNING...LIFTING
NORTHEAST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA COASTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS
YEAR. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK TNGT WITH DRY CONDS...SOME INCREASING
CLOUDS LATE...AND LO TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR TEENS TO LWR 20S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CENTERS ~1030MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH
VALLEY. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE GULF STATES. COLD
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. WIND
CHILLS IN THE 20S UNDER A SUNNY SKY.

FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. WINDS DECOUPLE
ALLOWING FOR EXCEPTIONAL RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS EVENING AS
DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE
LATE TONIGHT AS ATTENTION TURNS TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH. HEIGHT FALLS WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SC/NC
COAST BY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL LEVEL OFF
THRU LATE TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW
20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE NC COAST FRI MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PUSHES OVER THE CAROLINAS. SHORTWAVE AND INCREASING WINDS
ALOFT WILL PROVIDE ADEQUATE UVM OVER AN AREA OF 280-285K ISENTROPIC
LIFT ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE LOW. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE
MODEST...BUT MIXING RATIOS PROGGED TO REACH 3.0 TO 4.0 G/KG. THERMAL
PROFILES INDICATE HIGH RH/ICE IN THE SNOW GROWTH LAYER ALONG WITH
ABUNDANT LIFT DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. THE NET
RESULT WILL BE INCREASING POPS THRU MID TO LATE MORNING FRI AS SNOW
SPREADS INTO THE REGION. PRECIP CONTINUES THRU THE AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW LIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. QUESTION BECOMES HOW FAR NW
THE PRECIP SPREADS FRI AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE SE
COUNTIES TO CATEGORICAL...TAPERING OFF THE CHANCE OVER THE NW
COUNTIES. WITH THE LUXURY OF COLD CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES...SNOW
IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PREDOMINATE PTYPE THRU THE DURATION OF THE
EVENT. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE LATE FRIDAY NEAREST THE ALBEMARLE SOUND
WHERE A LITTLE SLEET MAY MIX WITH THE SNOW TOWARD THE END OF THE
EVENT. HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA
WHERE BANDING FROM FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE
LOW IS INDICATED IN THE MODELS. 2-4 INCHES IS EXPECTED IN THAT
AREA...REQUIRING A WINTER STORM WARNING. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST INTO
HAMPTON ROADS AND THE LOWER PENINSULA AND EASTERN SHORE...SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF TO 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES IN EFFECT. PLEASE SEE LATEST WSW FOR MORE INFO. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS TAPER OFF TO 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH TOWARD THE TRI CITIES AND MD
ERN SHORE...THEN A DUSTING TO HALF AN INCH RICHMOND NORTH AND WEST.
SNOW COMES TO AN END FRI EVENING AS THE SFC LOW PUSHES WELL OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY PUSHES THRU THE
REGION.

CLOSED UPPER LOW/ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE POLAR VORTEX DIGS OVER
NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. ~1040MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
MIDWEST...USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. WINDY SAT WITH NW WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH (STRONGER NEAR THE COAST AND OVER THE
EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS SAT FORECAST TO WARM ONLY INTO THE MID 20S NW
TO LOW 30S SE (-2 STD DEV) UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. WIND
CHILL VALUES WILL BE IN THE TEENS...RESULTING IN A RAW/COLD/WINDY
DAY. TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS SAT NIGHT.
WINDS DECOUPLE INLAND AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION...BUT WIND
CHILLS STILL FORECAST IN THE SINGLE DIGITS INLAND TO 0 TO 8 BELOW
NRN NECK TO THE ERN SHORE. THE HIGH CENTERS OVER THE LOCAL AREA
SUNDAY WITH NLY WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. SLIGHTLY COLDER SUN WITH
DECREASED MIXING. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 20S (-2 STD DEV)
UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ATTENTION
TURNING TO A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. THERE
REMAINS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS...ALTHOUGH
THE 11/12Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING SLOWER...AND WARMER FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. THE 11/12Z GFS CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT PCPN MONDAY AS A NRN STREAM TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WOULD MAINLY FALL AS SN OR SN/IP...WITH A TRANSITION TO
RA CLOSER TO THE COAST BY AFTERNOON. SUBSTANTIAL WARMING ALOFT WOULD
GENERALLY RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO RA MONDAY NIGHT...ASIDE FROM THE
FAR NW WHERE MIXED PCPN COULD PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH AN
IN-SITU WEDGE IN PLACE. THE LATEST DATA SCOURS OUT THE WEDGE BY
AFTERNOON WITH P-TYPE BECOMING RA EVEN IN THE FAR NW. DRYING OCCURS
MIDWEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE
CLIPPING THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
OF COOLER AIR AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS MONDAY WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOW 30S ALONG
AND W OF I-95...WHILE COASTAL LOCATIONS WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOW 40S. TEMPERATURES REMAIN STEADY MONDAY EVENING AND BEGIN TO RISE
OVERNIGHT EVENTUALLY WARMING INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S...FOLLOWED BY
LOW 40S NE...TO UPPER 40S SW THURSDAY. MORNING LOWS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CNDTNS ALL AREAS THRU AT LEAST 15Z AS HIGH/MID LVL CLDS OVRSPRD
THE RGN. SNOW FROM APPRCHG LOW PRS TO THE SW OVRSPRDS THE SERN TAF
SITES ARND 18Z. VSBY XPCTD TO DROP TO 1/2SM FOR A 2-4 HR PRD (20-00Z)
AT ECG ORF AND PHF PER LTST MODEL GUID. THIS WUD BE THE TIME FRAME
FOR SNOW ACCUMLS. ADDED SOME IP AT ECG AS PCPN COMES TO AN END ARND
00Z DUE TO MARINE INFLUENCES. CUD EVEN SEE SOME PL MIXING IN AT
ORF...BUT THNK SNOW WILL BE THE MAIN PCPN TYPE THERE.

SBY LOOKS TO GET SOME SNOW BTWN 22-02Z AS WELL BUT DID NOT GO AS
LOW WITH THE VSBY THERE AS LESS THAN ONE INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED.
LOW DP TMPS AND DRY AIRMASS OVR THE PIEDMONT SHUD PREVENT ANYTHING
MORE THAN SCT FLURRIES AT RIC.

OUTLOOK...GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOP FRIDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY. VFR AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
PCPN DEVELOPS MONDAY AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
SW. PCPN BEGINS AS SNOW UNDER A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUT THIS BREAKS
DOWN AND WARMER AIR WORKS IN AND CHANGES SNOW TO RAIN FROM SE TO NW.

RAIN CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
DRY WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FORM THE NW TONIGHT AND SETTLES
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY MORNING. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH
AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...WITH SCA HEADLINES GRADUALLY
ENDING THROUGH THE EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NE FRIDAY
WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY AFTERNOON THE WIND WILL BECOME E/NE S OF
CAPE CHARLES WITH GENERALLY A S/SE DIRECTION N OF CAPE CHARLES.
SPEEDS WILL BE AOB 15KT. ADDITIONALLY...THIS LOW WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF SN...WHICH WILL REDUCE VSBY. AS THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NE
FRIDAY NIGHT A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. A NW WIND WILL AVERAGE 25-30KT WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35-40KT OVER THE OCEAN AND BAY. SEAS BUILD TO 5-
8FT WITH 4-5 FT WAVES IN THE BAY. GALE FLAGS HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY (4TH PERIOD). THESE WILL LIKELY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NRN OCEAN ZONES. FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND...WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN
CAPPED AT HIGH-END SCA AT THIS TIME. FREEZING SPRAY IS LIKELY AS
TEMPERATURES PLUMMET SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES
ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FORM THE SW EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE
BLOW-OUT TIDES SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
     FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NCZ012>014.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR NCZ015>017-030>032-102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
     FRIDAY NIGHT FOR VAZ092-093-095>098-100-523>525.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM/TMG
NEAR TERM...MAS/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MPR/LSA
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 120511
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1211 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY MORNING...LIFTING
NORTHEAST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA COASTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS
YEAR. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK TNGT WITH DRY CONDS...SOME INCREASING
CLOUDS LATE...AND LO TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR TEENS TO LWR 20S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CENTERS ~1030MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH
VALLEY. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE GULF STATES. COLD
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. WIND
CHILLS IN THE 20S UNDER A SUNNY SKY.

FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. WINDS DECOUPLE
ALLOWING FOR EXCEPTIONAL RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS EVENING AS
DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE
LATE TONIGHT AS ATTENTION TURNS TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH. HEIGHT FALLS WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SC/NC
COAST BY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL LEVEL OFF
THRU LATE TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW
20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE NC COAST FRI MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PUSHES OVER THE CAROLINAS. SHORTWAVE AND INCREASING WINDS
ALOFT WILL PROVIDE ADEQUATE UVM OVER AN AREA OF 280-285K ISENTROPIC
LIFT ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE LOW. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE
MODEST...BUT MIXING RATIOS PROGGED TO REACH 3.0 TO 4.0 G/KG. THERMAL
PROFILES INDICATE HIGH RH/ICE IN THE SNOW GROWTH LAYER ALONG WITH
ABUNDANT LIFT DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. THE NET
RESULT WILL BE INCREASING POPS THRU MID TO LATE MORNING FRI AS SNOW
SPREADS INTO THE REGION. PRECIP CONTINUES THRU THE AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW LIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. QUESTION BECOMES HOW FAR NW
THE PRECIP SPREADS FRI AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE SE
COUNTIES TO CATEGORICAL...TAPERING OFF THE CHANCE OVER THE NW
COUNTIES. WITH THE LUXURY OF COLD CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES...SNOW
IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PREDOMINATE PTYPE THRU THE DURATION OF THE
EVENT. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE LATE FRIDAY NEAREST THE ALBEMARLE SOUND
WHERE A LITTLE SLEET MAY MIX WITH THE SNOW TOWARD THE END OF THE
EVENT. HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA
WHERE BANDING FROM FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE
LOW IS INDICATED IN THE MODELS. 2-4 INCHES IS EXPECTED IN THAT
AREA...REQUIRING A WINTER STORM WARNING. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST INTO
HAMPTON ROADS AND THE LOWER PENINSULA AND EASTERN SHORE...SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF TO 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES IN EFFECT. PLEASE SEE LATEST WSW FOR MORE INFO. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS TAPER OFF TO 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH TOWARD THE TRI CITIES AND MD
ERN SHORE...THEN A DUSTING TO HALF AN INCH RICHMOND NORTH AND WEST.
SNOW COMES TO AN END FRI EVENING AS THE SFC LOW PUSHES WELL OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY PUSHES THRU THE
REGION.

CLOSED UPPER LOW/ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE POLAR VORTEX DIGS OVER
NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. ~1040MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
MIDWEST...USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. WINDY SAT WITH NW WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH (STRONGER NEAR THE COAST AND OVER THE
EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS SAT FORECAST TO WARM ONLY INTO THE MID 20S NW
TO LOW 30S SE (-2 STD DEV) UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. WIND
CHILL VALUES WILL BE IN THE TEENS...RESULTING IN A RAW/COLD/WINDY
DAY. TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS SAT NIGHT.
WINDS DECOUPLE INLAND AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION...BUT WIND
CHILLS STILL FORECAST IN THE SINGLE DIGITS INLAND TO 0 TO 8 BELOW
NRN NECK TO THE ERN SHORE. THE HIGH CENTERS OVER THE LOCAL AREA
SUNDAY WITH NLY WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. SLIGHTLY COLDER SUN WITH
DECREASED MIXING. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 20S (-2 STD DEV)
UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ATTENTION
TURNING TO A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. THERE
REMAINS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS...ALTHOUGH
THE 11/12Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING SLOWER...AND WARMER FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. THE 11/12Z GFS CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT PCPN MONDAY AS A NRN STREAM TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WOULD MAINLY FALL AS SN OR SN/IP...WITH A TRANSITION TO
RA CLOSER TO THE COAST BY AFTERNOON. SUBSTANTIAL WARMING ALOFT WOULD
GENERALLY RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO RA MONDAY NIGHT...ASIDE FROM THE
FAR NW WHERE MIXED PCPN COULD PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH AN
IN-SITU WEDGE IN PLACE. THE LATEST DATA SCOURS OUT THE WEDGE BY
AFTERNOON WITH P-TYPE BECOMING RA EVEN IN THE FAR NW. DRYING OCCURS
MIDWEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE
CLIPPING THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
OF COOLER AIR AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS MONDAY WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOW 30S ALONG
AND W OF I-95...WHILE COASTAL LOCATIONS WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOW 40S. TEMPERATURES REMAIN STEADY MONDAY EVENING AND BEGIN TO RISE
OVERNIGHT EVENTUALLY WARMING INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S...FOLLOWED BY
LOW 40S NE...TO UPPER 40S SW THURSDAY. MORNING LOWS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CNDTNS ALL AREAS THRU AT LEAST 15Z AS HIGH/MID LVL CLDS OVRSPRD
THE RGN. SNOW FROM APPRCHG LOW PRS TO THE SW OVRSPRDS THE SERN TAF
SITES ARND 18Z. VSBY XPCTD TO DROP TO 1/2SM FOR A 2-4 HR PRD (20-00Z)
AT ECG ORF AND PHF PER LTST MODEL GUID. THIS WUD BE THE TIME FRAME
FOR SNOW ACCUMLS. ADDED SOME IP AT ECG AS PCPN COMES TO AN END ARND
00Z DUE TO MARINE INFLUENCES. CUD EVEN SEE SOME PL MIXING IN AT
ORF...BUT THNK SNOW WILL BE THE MAIN PCPN TYPE THERE.

SBY LOOKS TO GET SOME SNOW BTWN 22-02Z AS WELL BUT DID NOT GO AS
LOW WITH THE VSBY THERE AS LESS THAN ONE INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED.
LOW DP TMPS AND DRY AIRMASS OVR THE PIEDMONT SHUD PREVENT ANYTHING
MORE THAN SCT FLURRIES AT RIC.

OUTLOOK...GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOP FRIDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY. VFR AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
PCPN DEVELOPS MONDAY AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
SW. PCPN BEGINS AS SNOW UNDER A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUT THIS BREAKS
DOWN AND WARMER AIR WORKS IN AND CHANGES SNOW TO RAIN FROM SE TO NW.

RAIN CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
DRY WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FORM THE NW TONIGHT AND SETTLES
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY MORNING. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH
AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...WITH SCA HEADLINES GRADUALLY
ENDING THROUGH THE EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NE FRIDAY
WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY AFTERNOON THE WIND WILL BECOME E/NE S OF
CAPE CHARLES WITH GENERALLY A S/SE DIRECTION N OF CAPE CHARLES.
SPEEDS WILL BE AOB 15KT. ADDITIONALLY...THIS LOW WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF SN...WHICH WILL REDUCE VSBY. AS THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NE
FRIDAY NIGHT A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. A NW WIND WILL AVERAGE 25-30KT WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35-40KT OVER THE OCEAN AND BAY. SEAS BUILD TO 5-
8FT WITH 4-5 FT WAVES IN THE BAY. GALE FLAGS HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY (4TH PERIOD). THESE WILL LIKELY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NRN OCEAN ZONES. FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND...WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN
CAPPED AT HIGH-END SCA AT THIS TIME. FREEZING SPRAY IS LIKELY AS
TEMPERATURES PLUMMET SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES
ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FORM THE SW EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE
BLOW-OUT TIDES SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
     FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NCZ012>014.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR NCZ015>017-030>032-102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
     FRIDAY NIGHT FOR VAZ092-093-095>098-100-523>525.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM/TMG
NEAR TERM...MAS/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MPR/LSA
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KRNK 120459
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1159 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AHEAD OF
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY
EARLY FRIDAY. THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CROSS OUR AREA ON FRIDAY
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN VERY COLD BUT OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1145 PM EST THURSDAY...

00Z LARGER SCALE MODELS AND HIGH-RES MODELS BOTH COMING IN SLOWER
WITH SNOW IN THE MORNING. BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS THIS LOOKS
REASONABLE. WILL DELAY ONSET OF SNOW TIL AFTER 12Z...WITH BEST
LIFT ARRIVING TOWARD 15Z IN THE SW MTNS. THE NAM IS SHOWING ABOUT
2/10 INCH LIQUID WHICH FOR THIS AIRMASS AROUND 15-20:1 RATIO WILL
SPIT OUT CLOSE TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN LIKE MOUNT
ROGERS...BEECH MTN AND THREE TOP MTN IN NW NC/SW VA. SHOULD QPF
INCREASE MAY HAVE TO GO WITH WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THE NC
MTNS/GRAYSON...BUT GIVEN THAT IT IS CONFINED TO ABOVE 4000
FT...THE MAJORITY OF FOLKS WILL RECEIVE 2" OR LESS...SO NO
ADVISORY PLANNED WITH THIS UPDATE.

LOWERED TEMPS A FEW MORE DEGREES PER LATEST OBS. WITH MID/HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING IN OVERNIGHT EXPECT TEMPS TO START TO SLOWLY
DECLINE OR STEADY OUT LATE.

PREVIOUS MID EVENING DISCUSSION...
ONLY A FEW MINOR EDITS WITH THE EVENING UPDATES. ADJUSTED SKY
COVER BASED ON CURRENT IR SIGNATURES. MID DECK LOOKS DELAYED BY AN
HOUR OR SO...AND MUCH DENSER TO THE SOUTH. THUS...ADJUSTED MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE VALUES DOWN IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA DUE TO A LONGER PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

BRIEF LULL IN THE ACTION WILL OCCUR EARLY TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH UNDER MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES THIS EVENING. HOWEVER LACK OF MOISTURE WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN QUICKLY DEVELOPS ALOFT LATE TONIGHT
IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT DIGGING UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE
NEXT ARCTIC SHOT. GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN
MID CLOUDS FROM THE NW BY MIDNIGHT WITH THIS CANOPY OVERSPREADING
THE REGION BY DAYBREAK. BOUNDARY LAYER APPEARS TOO DRY FOR ANY
PRECIP OTHER THAN MAYBE A FLURRY FAR WEST LATE SO KEEPING POPS OUT
UNTIL JUST BEFORE DAWN SW. TEMPS REMAIN VERY COLD AND WITH LOW
DEWPOINTS EXPECTING A QUICK DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET ESPCLY VALLEYS
AS WIND DIMINISH BEFORE THINGS STEADY OUT WITH CLOUDS ARRIVING.
THIS SUPPORTS GOING A LITTLE BELOW MOS WITH LOWS MOSTLY TEENS WITH
A FEW SINGLE DIGITS NW VALLEYS WHERE SNOW COVER PREVAILS.

FAST MOVING MID LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE CLIPPER WILL PASS TO
THE SOUTH FRIDAY WITH THE SURFACE LOW QUICKLY DEEPENING UPON REACHING
THE CAROLINA COAST. LATEST MODELS BRING A SWATH OF LIFT WITH WEAK
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING INTO THE WESTERN SLOPES FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE
UPWARD MOTION JUMPS TO THE COASTAL SYSTEM. JUST HOW FAR SNOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WESTERN SLUG OF MOISTURE MAKES IT REMAINS IFFY BUT APPEARS
MAY RUN OUT TO THE BLUE RIDGE BEFORE FADING/REDEVELOPING PIEDMONT PRIOR
TO ENDING. LATEST QPF OF AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS WESTERN
MOUNTAINS SUPPORTS AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW PER HIGH RATIOS...WITH LESS
THAN AN INCH I-81 CORRIDOR/BLUE RIDGE...AND ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS TO THE
EAST. THEREFORE UPPED POPS A BIT FAR WEST AND EXTENDED HIGHER CHANCES
EAST GIVEN FAST MOVEMENT AND POTENTIAL FOR A BAND TO SNEAK OUT ESPCLY
IF THE SHORTWAVE IS A BIT FASTER UNDER STRONG LOW LEVEL BACKED FLOW PER
THE GFS. AMOUNTS STILL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AND GIVEN TIMING OF
MOSTLY BETWEEN THE MORNING/EVENING RUSH HOURS WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW. OTRW A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN THE ONGOING FRIGID
TEMPS WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION LIKELY TO PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 30S
EAST...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE BEFORE
THE FRONT CROSSES LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...

UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ONGOING FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH A LOW LEVEL JET PEAKING AROUND 50 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
MUCH DRIER AIR COMES IN BEHIND THE CLIPPER. MODELS SUGGEST ONLY
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN WESTERN GREENBRIER
COUNTY BY SATURDAY EVENING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...PRESSURE RISES AND
INVERSION HEIGHT ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE AND INTO THE
NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF
ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE MENTIONED THIS
POTENTIAL THREAT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

COLDEST AIR WITH THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE CENTER OF THE
SURFACE HIGH IS CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT THE WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG...BUT WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES...THE COMBINATION WILL STILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD BACK OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY FROM THE
WEST. LOW CONFIDENCE IN HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE TO SATURATE LOWER
LAYERS ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. NO CHANGES IN THE
ARRIVAL TIME OF THE PRECIPITATION FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EST THURSDAY...

A PIECE OF THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS WEDGED DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS WITH COASTAL TROFING ALSO DEVELOPING ON MONDAY. THE GFS
AND CANADIAN BRING A SURFACE LOW FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SUNDAY THEN DEEPEN THE LOW AND TRACK IT NORTHEAST TO THE CAROLINAS
BY TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS INITIALLY WEAKER WITH THE LOW THEN FASTER
TRACKING IT NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY. OF COURSE THE TRACK
OF THE LOW WILL HAVE TREMENDOUS INFLUENCE ON THE RESULTING WEATHER
FOR THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. WPC FAVORING ENSEMBLES FORECASTS IN
THIS TIME FRAME. BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS STORMS SYSTEM
AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE ON LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA STAYS COLD ENOUGH AT ALL LEVEL FOR SNOW THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THEN VERY STRONG SOUTHERLY JET BRINGS IN WARMER AIR
ABOVE THE SURFACE. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE MIXED WINTER
PRECIPITATION. WITH THE WEDGE IN PLACE...MODELS MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE
WARMING UP THE SURFACE THROUGH 850 MB LAYER MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1150 PM EST THURSDAY...

VFR THROUGH 12Z WITH INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS. MODELS SLOWING
TIMING OF SNOW AND LOWER CIGS DOWN UNTIL 12Z OR AFTER. STILL LOOKS
LIKE MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY AT BLF/LWB/BCB BETWEEN 17-18Z...WITH
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES MOVING IN A COUPLE HOURS BEFORE THIS.
CONFIDENCE HIGH IN MVFR CIGS BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT IFR
CIGS/VSBYS BUT POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON FRIDAY.

FLURRIES ALSO EXPECTED AT DAN/ROA...WITH LOW END VFR CIGS.

WINDS LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. ONCE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST
WINDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST FRIDAY EVENING AND
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH SAT MORNING IN THE WEST...WITH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 TO
40 KTS...ESPECIALLY ROA/BCB.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

EXPECT VFR SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SUBSIDING
WINDS...THOUGH SOME MVFR INTO SAT NIGHT POSSIBLE AT BLF.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT POOR FLYING WEATHER WILL TAKE PLACE
DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...BUT FURTHER UPDATES FROM THE LONGER RANGE MODELS
MAY IMPACT THE DETAILS ON PRECIPITATION TYPE AND STORM TRACK.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/JM/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...PW/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 120459
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1159 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AHEAD OF
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY
EARLY FRIDAY. THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CROSS OUR AREA ON FRIDAY
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN VERY COLD BUT OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1145 PM EST THURSDAY...

00Z LARGER SCALE MODELS AND HIGH-RES MODELS BOTH COMING IN SLOWER
WITH SNOW IN THE MORNING. BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS THIS LOOKS
REASONABLE. WILL DELAY ONSET OF SNOW TIL AFTER 12Z...WITH BEST
LIFT ARRIVING TOWARD 15Z IN THE SW MTNS. THE NAM IS SHOWING ABOUT
2/10 INCH LIQUID WHICH FOR THIS AIRMASS AROUND 15-20:1 RATIO WILL
SPIT OUT CLOSE TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN LIKE MOUNT
ROGERS...BEECH MTN AND THREE TOP MTN IN NW NC/SW VA. SHOULD QPF
INCREASE MAY HAVE TO GO WITH WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THE NC
MTNS/GRAYSON...BUT GIVEN THAT IT IS CONFINED TO ABOVE 4000
FT...THE MAJORITY OF FOLKS WILL RECEIVE 2" OR LESS...SO NO
ADVISORY PLANNED WITH THIS UPDATE.

LOWERED TEMPS A FEW MORE DEGREES PER LATEST OBS. WITH MID/HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING IN OVERNIGHT EXPECT TEMPS TO START TO SLOWLY
DECLINE OR STEADY OUT LATE.

PREVIOUS MID EVENING DISCUSSION...
ONLY A FEW MINOR EDITS WITH THE EVENING UPDATES. ADJUSTED SKY
COVER BASED ON CURRENT IR SIGNATURES. MID DECK LOOKS DELAYED BY AN
HOUR OR SO...AND MUCH DENSER TO THE SOUTH. THUS...ADJUSTED MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE VALUES DOWN IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA DUE TO A LONGER PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

BRIEF LULL IN THE ACTION WILL OCCUR EARLY TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH UNDER MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES THIS EVENING. HOWEVER LACK OF MOISTURE WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN QUICKLY DEVELOPS ALOFT LATE TONIGHT
IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT DIGGING UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE
NEXT ARCTIC SHOT. GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN
MID CLOUDS FROM THE NW BY MIDNIGHT WITH THIS CANOPY OVERSPREADING
THE REGION BY DAYBREAK. BOUNDARY LAYER APPEARS TOO DRY FOR ANY
PRECIP OTHER THAN MAYBE A FLURRY FAR WEST LATE SO KEEPING POPS OUT
UNTIL JUST BEFORE DAWN SW. TEMPS REMAIN VERY COLD AND WITH LOW
DEWPOINTS EXPECTING A QUICK DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET ESPCLY VALLEYS
AS WIND DIMINISH BEFORE THINGS STEADY OUT WITH CLOUDS ARRIVING.
THIS SUPPORTS GOING A LITTLE BELOW MOS WITH LOWS MOSTLY TEENS WITH
A FEW SINGLE DIGITS NW VALLEYS WHERE SNOW COVER PREVAILS.

FAST MOVING MID LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE CLIPPER WILL PASS TO
THE SOUTH FRIDAY WITH THE SURFACE LOW QUICKLY DEEPENING UPON REACHING
THE CAROLINA COAST. LATEST MODELS BRING A SWATH OF LIFT WITH WEAK
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING INTO THE WESTERN SLOPES FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE
UPWARD MOTION JUMPS TO THE COASTAL SYSTEM. JUST HOW FAR SNOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WESTERN SLUG OF MOISTURE MAKES IT REMAINS IFFY BUT APPEARS
MAY RUN OUT TO THE BLUE RIDGE BEFORE FADING/REDEVELOPING PIEDMONT PRIOR
TO ENDING. LATEST QPF OF AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS WESTERN
MOUNTAINS SUPPORTS AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW PER HIGH RATIOS...WITH LESS
THAN AN INCH I-81 CORRIDOR/BLUE RIDGE...AND ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS TO THE
EAST. THEREFORE UPPED POPS A BIT FAR WEST AND EXTENDED HIGHER CHANCES
EAST GIVEN FAST MOVEMENT AND POTENTIAL FOR A BAND TO SNEAK OUT ESPCLY
IF THE SHORTWAVE IS A BIT FASTER UNDER STRONG LOW LEVEL BACKED FLOW PER
THE GFS. AMOUNTS STILL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AND GIVEN TIMING OF
MOSTLY BETWEEN THE MORNING/EVENING RUSH HOURS WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW. OTRW A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN THE ONGOING FRIGID
TEMPS WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION LIKELY TO PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 30S
EAST...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE BEFORE
THE FRONT CROSSES LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...

UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ONGOING FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH A LOW LEVEL JET PEAKING AROUND 50 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
MUCH DRIER AIR COMES IN BEHIND THE CLIPPER. MODELS SUGGEST ONLY
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN WESTERN GREENBRIER
COUNTY BY SATURDAY EVENING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...PRESSURE RISES AND
INVERSION HEIGHT ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE AND INTO THE
NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF
ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE MENTIONED THIS
POTENTIAL THREAT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

COLDEST AIR WITH THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE CENTER OF THE
SURFACE HIGH IS CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT THE WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG...BUT WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES...THE COMBINATION WILL STILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD BACK OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY FROM THE
WEST. LOW CONFIDENCE IN HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE TO SATURATE LOWER
LAYERS ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. NO CHANGES IN THE
ARRIVAL TIME OF THE PRECIPITATION FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EST THURSDAY...

A PIECE OF THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS WEDGED DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS WITH COASTAL TROFING ALSO DEVELOPING ON MONDAY. THE GFS
AND CANADIAN BRING A SURFACE LOW FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SUNDAY THEN DEEPEN THE LOW AND TRACK IT NORTHEAST TO THE CAROLINAS
BY TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS INITIALLY WEAKER WITH THE LOW THEN FASTER
TRACKING IT NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY. OF COURSE THE TRACK
OF THE LOW WILL HAVE TREMENDOUS INFLUENCE ON THE RESULTING WEATHER
FOR THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. WPC FAVORING ENSEMBLES FORECASTS IN
THIS TIME FRAME. BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS STORMS SYSTEM
AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE ON LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA STAYS COLD ENOUGH AT ALL LEVEL FOR SNOW THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THEN VERY STRONG SOUTHERLY JET BRINGS IN WARMER AIR
ABOVE THE SURFACE. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE MIXED WINTER
PRECIPITATION. WITH THE WEDGE IN PLACE...MODELS MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE
WARMING UP THE SURFACE THROUGH 850 MB LAYER MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1150 PM EST THURSDAY...

VFR THROUGH 12Z WITH INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS. MODELS SLOWING
TIMING OF SNOW AND LOWER CIGS DOWN UNTIL 12Z OR AFTER. STILL LOOKS
LIKE MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY AT BLF/LWB/BCB BETWEEN 17-18Z...WITH
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES MOVING IN A COUPLE HOURS BEFORE THIS.
CONFIDENCE HIGH IN MVFR CIGS BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT IFR
CIGS/VSBYS BUT POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON FRIDAY.

FLURRIES ALSO EXPECTED AT DAN/ROA...WITH LOW END VFR CIGS.

WINDS LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. ONCE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST
WINDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST FRIDAY EVENING AND
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH SAT MORNING IN THE WEST...WITH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 TO
40 KTS...ESPECIALLY ROA/BCB.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

EXPECT VFR SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SUBSIDING
WINDS...THOUGH SOME MVFR INTO SAT NIGHT POSSIBLE AT BLF.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT POOR FLYING WEATHER WILL TAKE PLACE
DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...BUT FURTHER UPDATES FROM THE LONGER RANGE MODELS
MAY IMPACT THE DETAILS ON PRECIPITATION TYPE AND STORM TRACK.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/JM/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...PW/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 120459
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1159 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AHEAD OF
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY
EARLY FRIDAY. THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CROSS OUR AREA ON FRIDAY
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN VERY COLD BUT OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1145 PM EST THURSDAY...

00Z LARGER SCALE MODELS AND HIGH-RES MODELS BOTH COMING IN SLOWER
WITH SNOW IN THE MORNING. BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS THIS LOOKS
REASONABLE. WILL DELAY ONSET OF SNOW TIL AFTER 12Z...WITH BEST
LIFT ARRIVING TOWARD 15Z IN THE SW MTNS. THE NAM IS SHOWING ABOUT
2/10 INCH LIQUID WHICH FOR THIS AIRMASS AROUND 15-20:1 RATIO WILL
SPIT OUT CLOSE TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN LIKE MOUNT
ROGERS...BEECH MTN AND THREE TOP MTN IN NW NC/SW VA. SHOULD QPF
INCREASE MAY HAVE TO GO WITH WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THE NC
MTNS/GRAYSON...BUT GIVEN THAT IT IS CONFINED TO ABOVE 4000
FT...THE MAJORITY OF FOLKS WILL RECEIVE 2" OR LESS...SO NO
ADVISORY PLANNED WITH THIS UPDATE.

LOWERED TEMPS A FEW MORE DEGREES PER LATEST OBS. WITH MID/HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING IN OVERNIGHT EXPECT TEMPS TO START TO SLOWLY
DECLINE OR STEADY OUT LATE.

PREVIOUS MID EVENING DISCUSSION...
ONLY A FEW MINOR EDITS WITH THE EVENING UPDATES. ADJUSTED SKY
COVER BASED ON CURRENT IR SIGNATURES. MID DECK LOOKS DELAYED BY AN
HOUR OR SO...AND MUCH DENSER TO THE SOUTH. THUS...ADJUSTED MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE VALUES DOWN IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA DUE TO A LONGER PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

BRIEF LULL IN THE ACTION WILL OCCUR EARLY TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH UNDER MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES THIS EVENING. HOWEVER LACK OF MOISTURE WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN QUICKLY DEVELOPS ALOFT LATE TONIGHT
IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT DIGGING UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE
NEXT ARCTIC SHOT. GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN
MID CLOUDS FROM THE NW BY MIDNIGHT WITH THIS CANOPY OVERSPREADING
THE REGION BY DAYBREAK. BOUNDARY LAYER APPEARS TOO DRY FOR ANY
PRECIP OTHER THAN MAYBE A FLURRY FAR WEST LATE SO KEEPING POPS OUT
UNTIL JUST BEFORE DAWN SW. TEMPS REMAIN VERY COLD AND WITH LOW
DEWPOINTS EXPECTING A QUICK DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET ESPCLY VALLEYS
AS WIND DIMINISH BEFORE THINGS STEADY OUT WITH CLOUDS ARRIVING.
THIS SUPPORTS GOING A LITTLE BELOW MOS WITH LOWS MOSTLY TEENS WITH
A FEW SINGLE DIGITS NW VALLEYS WHERE SNOW COVER PREVAILS.

FAST MOVING MID LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE CLIPPER WILL PASS TO
THE SOUTH FRIDAY WITH THE SURFACE LOW QUICKLY DEEPENING UPON REACHING
THE CAROLINA COAST. LATEST MODELS BRING A SWATH OF LIFT WITH WEAK
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING INTO THE WESTERN SLOPES FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE
UPWARD MOTION JUMPS TO THE COASTAL SYSTEM. JUST HOW FAR SNOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WESTERN SLUG OF MOISTURE MAKES IT REMAINS IFFY BUT APPEARS
MAY RUN OUT TO THE BLUE RIDGE BEFORE FADING/REDEVELOPING PIEDMONT PRIOR
TO ENDING. LATEST QPF OF AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS WESTERN
MOUNTAINS SUPPORTS AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW PER HIGH RATIOS...WITH LESS
THAN AN INCH I-81 CORRIDOR/BLUE RIDGE...AND ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS TO THE
EAST. THEREFORE UPPED POPS A BIT FAR WEST AND EXTENDED HIGHER CHANCES
EAST GIVEN FAST MOVEMENT AND POTENTIAL FOR A BAND TO SNEAK OUT ESPCLY
IF THE SHORTWAVE IS A BIT FASTER UNDER STRONG LOW LEVEL BACKED FLOW PER
THE GFS. AMOUNTS STILL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AND GIVEN TIMING OF
MOSTLY BETWEEN THE MORNING/EVENING RUSH HOURS WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW. OTRW A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN THE ONGOING FRIGID
TEMPS WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION LIKELY TO PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 30S
EAST...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE BEFORE
THE FRONT CROSSES LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...

UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ONGOING FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH A LOW LEVEL JET PEAKING AROUND 50 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
MUCH DRIER AIR COMES IN BEHIND THE CLIPPER. MODELS SUGGEST ONLY
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN WESTERN GREENBRIER
COUNTY BY SATURDAY EVENING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...PRESSURE RISES AND
INVERSION HEIGHT ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE AND INTO THE
NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF
ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE MENTIONED THIS
POTENTIAL THREAT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

COLDEST AIR WITH THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE CENTER OF THE
SURFACE HIGH IS CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT THE WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG...BUT WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES...THE COMBINATION WILL STILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD BACK OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY FROM THE
WEST. LOW CONFIDENCE IN HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE TO SATURATE LOWER
LAYERS ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. NO CHANGES IN THE
ARRIVAL TIME OF THE PRECIPITATION FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EST THURSDAY...

A PIECE OF THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS WEDGED DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS WITH COASTAL TROFING ALSO DEVELOPING ON MONDAY. THE GFS
AND CANADIAN BRING A SURFACE LOW FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SUNDAY THEN DEEPEN THE LOW AND TRACK IT NORTHEAST TO THE CAROLINAS
BY TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS INITIALLY WEAKER WITH THE LOW THEN FASTER
TRACKING IT NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY. OF COURSE THE TRACK
OF THE LOW WILL HAVE TREMENDOUS INFLUENCE ON THE RESULTING WEATHER
FOR THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. WPC FAVORING ENSEMBLES FORECASTS IN
THIS TIME FRAME. BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS STORMS SYSTEM
AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE ON LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA STAYS COLD ENOUGH AT ALL LEVEL FOR SNOW THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THEN VERY STRONG SOUTHERLY JET BRINGS IN WARMER AIR
ABOVE THE SURFACE. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE MIXED WINTER
PRECIPITATION. WITH THE WEDGE IN PLACE...MODELS MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE
WARMING UP THE SURFACE THROUGH 850 MB LAYER MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1150 PM EST THURSDAY...

VFR THROUGH 12Z WITH INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS. MODELS SLOWING
TIMING OF SNOW AND LOWER CIGS DOWN UNTIL 12Z OR AFTER. STILL LOOKS
LIKE MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY AT BLF/LWB/BCB BETWEEN 17-18Z...WITH
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES MOVING IN A COUPLE HOURS BEFORE THIS.
CONFIDENCE HIGH IN MVFR CIGS BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT IFR
CIGS/VSBYS BUT POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON FRIDAY.

FLURRIES ALSO EXPECTED AT DAN/ROA...WITH LOW END VFR CIGS.

WINDS LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. ONCE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST
WINDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST FRIDAY EVENING AND
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH SAT MORNING IN THE WEST...WITH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 TO
40 KTS...ESPECIALLY ROA/BCB.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

EXPECT VFR SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SUBSIDING
WINDS...THOUGH SOME MVFR INTO SAT NIGHT POSSIBLE AT BLF.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT POOR FLYING WEATHER WILL TAKE PLACE
DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...BUT FURTHER UPDATES FROM THE LONGER RANGE MODELS
MAY IMPACT THE DETAILS ON PRECIPITATION TYPE AND STORM TRACK.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/JM/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...PW/WP



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 120316
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1016 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY MORNING...LIFTING
NORTHEAST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA COASTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS
YEAR. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK TNGT WITH DRY CONDS...SOME INCREASING
CLOUDS LATE...AND LO TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR TEENS TO LWR 20S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CENTERS ~1030MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH
VALLEY. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE GULF STATES. COLD
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. WIND
CHILLS IN THE 20S UNDER A SUNNY SKY.

FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. WINDS DECOUPLE
ALLOWING FOR EXCEPTIONAL RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS EVENING AS
DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE
LATE TONIGHT AS ATTENTION TURNS TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH. HEIGHT FALLS WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SC/NC
COAST BY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL LEVEL OFF
THRU LATE TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW
20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE NC COAST FRI MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PUSHES OVER THE CAROLINAS. SHORTWAVE AND INCREASING WINDS
ALOFT WILL PROVIDE ADEQUATE UVM OVER AN AREA OF 280-285K ISENTROPIC
LIFT ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE LOW. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE
MODEST...BUT MIXING RATIOS PROGGED TO REACH 3.0 TO 4.0 G/KG. THERMAL
PROFILES INDICATE HIGH RH/ICE IN THE SNOW GROWTH LAYER ALONG WITH
ABUNDANT LIFT DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. THE NET
RESULT WILL BE INCREASING POPS THRU MID TO LATE MORNING FRI AS SNOW
SPREADS INTO THE REGION. PRECIP CONTINUES THRU THE AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW LIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. QUESTION BECOMES HOW FAR NW
THE PRECIP SPREADS FRI AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE SE
COUNTIES TO CATEGORICAL...TAPERING OFF THE CHANCE OVER THE NW
COUNTIES. WITH THE LUXURY OF COLD CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES...SNOW
IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PREDOMINATE PTYPE THRU THE DURATION OF THE
EVENT. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE LATE FRIDAY NEAREST THE ALBEMARLE SOUND
WHERE A LITTLE SLEET MAY MIX WITH THE SNOW TOWARD THE END OF THE
EVENT. HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA
WHERE BANDING FROM FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE
LOW IS INDICATED IN THE MODELS. 2-4 INCHES IS EXPECTED IN THAT
AREA...REQUIRING A WINTER STORM WARNING. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST INTO
HAMPTON ROADS AND THE LOWER PENINSULA AND EASTERN SHORE...SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF TO 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES IN EFFECT. PLEASE SEE LATEST WSW FOR MORE INFO. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS TAPER OFF TO 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH TOWARD THE TRI CITIES AND MD
ERN SHORE...THEN A DUSTING TO HALF AN INCH RICHMOND NORTH AND WEST.
SNOW COMES TO AN END FRI EVENING AS THE SFC LOW PUSHES WELL OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY PUSHES THRU THE
REGION.

CLOSED UPPER LOW/ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE POLAR VORTEX DIGS OVER
NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. ~1040MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
MIDWEST...USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. WINDY SAT WITH NW WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH (STRONGER NEAR THE COAST AND OVER THE
EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS SAT FORECAST TO WARM ONLY INTO THE MID 20S NW
TO LOW 30S SE (-2 STD DEV) UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. WIND
CHILL VALUES WILL BE IN THE TEENS...RESULTING IN A RAW/COLD/WINDY
DAY. TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS SAT NIGHT.
WINDS DECOUPLE INLAND AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION...BUT WIND
CHILLS STILL FORECAST IN THE SINGLE DIGITS INLAND TO 0 TO 8 BELOW
NRN NECK TO THE ERN SHORE. THE HIGH CENTERS OVER THE LOCAL AREA
SUNDAY WITH NLY WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. SLIGHTLY COLDER SUN WITH
DECREASED MIXING. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 20S (-2 STD DEV)
UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ATTENTION
TURNING TO A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. THERE
REMAINS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS...ALTHOUGH
THE 11/12Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING SLOWER...AND WARMER FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. THE 11/12Z GFS CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT PCPN MONDAY AS A NRN STREAM TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WOULD MAINLY FALL AS SN OR SN/IP...WITH A TRANSITION TO
RA CLOSER TO THE COAST BY AFTERNOON. SUBSTANTIAL WARMING ALOFT WOULD
GENERALLY RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO RA MONDAY NIGHT...ASIDE FROM THE
FAR NW WHERE MIXED PCPN COULD PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH AN
IN-SITU WEDGE IN PLACE. THE LATEST DATA SCOURS OUT THE WEDGE BY
AFTERNOON WITH P-TYPE BECOMING RA EVEN IN THE FAR NW. DRYING OCCURS
MIDWEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE
CLIPPING THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
OF COOLER AIR AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS MONDAY WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOW 30S ALONG
AND W OF I-95...WHILE COASTAL LOCATIONS WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOW 40S. TEMPERATURES REMAIN STEADY MONDAY EVENING AND BEGIN TO RISE
OVERNIGHT EVENTUALLY WARMING INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S...FOLLOWED BY
LOW 40S NE...TO UPPER 40S SW THURSDAY. MORNING LOWS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. IN THE
MEANTIME...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WILL MOVE
INTO THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY MORNING.

SNOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTH AROUND MIDDAY. HAVE VSBY DROPPING
TO ONE HALF MILE IN THE AFTERNOON AT ECG ORF AND PHF. WENT CLOSE TO
LAV MOS AS MET HOLDS BACK ON TAKING VSBY INTO THE IFR RANGE. WITH
THE ACCUMULATING SNOW THAT IS EXPECTED (GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES)...
IFR SHOULD BE NO PROBLEM. SBY LOOKS TO GET SOME SNOW AS WELL BUT DID
NOT GO AS LOW WITH THE VSBY THERE AS LESS THAN ONE INCH OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED. LIGHT SNOW MAY FALL AT RIC BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK...GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOP FRIDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY. VFR AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
PCPN DEVELOPS MONDAY AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
SW. PCPN BEGINS AS SNOW UNDER A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUT THIS BREAKS
DOWN AND WARMER AIR WORKS IN AND CHANGES SNOW TO RAIN FROM SE TO NW.

RAIN CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
DRY WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FORM THE NW TONIGHT AND SETTLES
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY MORNING. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH
AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...WITH SCA HEADLINES GRADUALLY
ENDING THROUGH THE EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NE FRIDAY
WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY AFTERNOON THE WIND WILL BECOME E/NE S OF
CAPE CHARLES WITH GENERALLY A S/SE DIRECTION N OF CAPE CHARLES.
SPEEDS WILL BE AOB 15KT. ADDITIONALLY...THIS LOW WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF SN...WHICH WILL REDUCE VSBY. AS THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NE
FRIDAY NIGHT A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. A NW WIND WILL AVERAGE 25-30KT WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35-40KT OVER THE OCEAN AND BAY. SEAS BUILD TO 5-
8FT WITH 4-5 FT WAVES IN THE BAY. GALE FLAGS HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY (4TH PERIOD). THESE WILL LIKELY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NRN OCEAN ZONES. FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND...WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN
CAPPED AT HIGH-END SCA AT THIS TIME. FREEZING SPRAY IS LIKELY AS
TEMPERATURES PLUMMET SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES
ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FORM THE SW EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE
BLOW-OUT TIDES SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
     FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NCZ012>014.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR NCZ015>017-030>032-102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
     FRIDAY NIGHT FOR VAZ092-093-095>098-100-523>525.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM/TMG
NEAR TERM...MAS/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KRNK 120250
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
950 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AHEAD OF
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY
EARLY FRIDAY. THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CROSS OUR AREA ON FRIDAY
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN VERY COLD BUT OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 945 PM EST THURSDAY...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 945 PM EST THURSDAY...

ONLY A FEW MINOR EDITS WITH THE EVENING UPDATES. ADJUSTED SKY COVER
BASED ON CURRENT IR SIGNATURES. MID DECK LOOKS DELAYED BY AN HOUR OR
SO...AND MUCH DENSER TO THE SOUTH. THUS...ADJUSTED MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE VALUES DOWN IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
DUE TO A LONGER PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

BRIEF LULL IN THE ACTION WILL OCCUR EARLY TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH UNDER MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES THIS EVENING. HOWEVER LACK OF MOISTURE WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN QUICKLY DEVELOPS ALOFT LATE TONIGHT
IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT DIGGING UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE
NEXT ARCTIC SHOT. GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN
MID CLOUDS FROM THE NW BY MIDNIGHT WITH THIS CANOPY OVERSPREADING
THE REGION BY DAYBREAK. BOUNDARY LAYER APPEARS TOO DRY FOR ANY
PRECIP OTHER THAN MAYBE A FLURRY FAR WEST LATE SO KEEPING POPS OUT
UNTIL JUST BEFORE DAWN SW. TEMPS REMAIN VERY COLD AND WITH LOW
DEWPOINTS EXPECTING A QUICK DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET ESPCLY VALLEYS
AS WIND DIMINISH BEFORE THINGS STEADY OUT WITH CLOUDS ARRIVING.
THIS SUPPORTS GOING A LITTLE BELOW MOS WITH LOWS MOSTLY TEENS WITH
A FEW SINGLE DIGITS NW VALLEYS WHERE SNOW COVER PREVAILS.

FAST MOVING MID LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE CLIPPER WILL PASS TO
THE SOUTH FRIDAY WITH THE SURFACE LOW QUICKLY DEEPENING UPON REACHING
THE CAROLINA COAST. LATEST MODELS BRING A SWATH OF LIFT WITH WEAK
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING INTO THE WESTERN SLOPES FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE
UPWARD MOTION JUMPS TO THE COASTAL SYSTEM. JUST HOW FAR SNOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WESTERN SLUG OF MOISTURE MAKES IT REMAINS IFFY BUT APPEARS
MAY RUN OUT TO THE BLUE RIDGE BEFORE FADING/REDEVELOPING PIEDMONT PRIOR
TO ENDING. LATEST QPF OF AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS WESTERN
MOUNTAINS SUPPORTS AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW PER HIGH RATIOS...WITH LESS
THAN AN INCH I-81 CORRIDOR/BLUE RIDGE...AND ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS TO THE
EAST. THEREFORE UPPED POPS A BIT FAR WEST AND EXTENDED HIGHER CHANCES
EAST GIVEN FAST MOVEMENT AND POTENTIAL FOR A BAND TO SNEAK OUT ESPCLY
IF THE SHORTWAVE IS A BIT FASTER UNDER STRONG LOW LEVEL BACKED FLOW PER
THE GFS. AMOUNTS STILL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AND GIVEN TIMING OF
MOSTLY BETWEEN THE MORNING/EVENING RUSH HOURS WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW. OTRW A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN THE ONGOING FRIGID
TEMPS WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION LIKELY TO PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 30S
EAST...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE BEFORE
THE FRONT CROSSES LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...

UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ONGOING FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH A LOW LEVEL JET PEAKING AROUND 50 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
MUCH DRIER AIR COMES IN BEHIND THE CLIPPER. MODELS SUGGEST ONLY
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN WESTERN GREENBRIER
COUNTY BY SATURDAY EVENING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...PRESSURE RISES AND
INVERSION HEIGHT ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE AND INTO THE
NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF
ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE MENTIONED THIS
POTENTIAL THREAT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

COLDEST AIR WITH THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE CENTER OF THE
SURFACE HIGH IS CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT THE WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG...BUT WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES...THE COMBINATION WILL STILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD BACK OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY FROM THE
WEST. LOW CONFIDENCE IN HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE TO SATURATE LOWER
LAYERS ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. NO CHANGES IN THE
ARRIVAL TIME OF THE PRECIPITATION FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EST THURSDAY...

A PIECE OF THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS WEDGED DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS WITH COASTAL TROFING ALSO DEVELOPING ON MONDAY. THE GFS
AND CANADIAN BRING A SURFACE LOW FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SUNDAY THEN DEEPEN THE LOW AND TRACK IT NORTHEAST TO THE CAROLINAS
BY TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS INITIALLY WEAKER WITH THE LOW THEN FASTER
TRACKING IT NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY. OF COURSE THE TRACK
OF THE LOW WILL HAVE TREMENDOUS INFLUENCE ON THE RESULTING WEATHER
FOR THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. WPC FAVORING ENSEMBLES FORECASTS IN
THIS TIME FRAME. BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS STORMS SYSTEM
AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE ON LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA STAYS COLD ENOUGH AT ALL LEVEL FOR SNOW THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THEN VERY STRONG SOUTHERLY JET BRINGS IN WARMER AIR
ABOVE THE SURFACE. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE MIXED WINTER
PRECIPITATION. WITH THE WEDGE IN PLACE...MODELS MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE
WARMING UP THE SURFACE THROUGH 850 MB LAYER MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM EST THURSDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PERSIST OVERNIGHT AT ALL
SITES. HOWEVER...AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD BRING INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. CEILINGS WILL STEADILY DROP BY DAWN ON SATURDAY.

CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES INCREASES AFTER
12Z SATURDAY FOR BLF/LWB/BCB...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
OVERHEAD TO BRING LIGHT SNOW. ROA MAY SEE PASSING FLURRIES...BUT
IT SHOULD HOLD AT VFR. LYH AND DAN SHOULD STAY VFR AND REMAIN DRY.
WINDS WILL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON SATURDAY EVENING...AND GUST UP TO 20 KT AT BLF AND BCB.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER ROUND OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL ENSUE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DURING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AS ANOTHER SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES. ROA/LYH/DAN SHOULD STAY VFR THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT CONDITIONS COULD REMAIN MVFR/IFR FOR BLF/LWB/BCB
UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT POOR FLYING WEATHER WILL TAKE PLACE
DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...BUT FURTHER UPDATES FROM THE LONGER RANGE MODELS
MAY IMPACT THE DETAILS ON PRECIPITATION TYPE AND STORM TRACK.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JM/JH
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...PW




000
FXUS61 KLWX 120236
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
936 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE
WILL IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH NOW SITTING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING. MID-
ATLANTIC SLOWLY COMING UNDER ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW THOUGH LONG-WAVE
TROUGH STILL OVER EASTERN N AMERICA. HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISING AND
BL MOISTURE STILL THINNING AS EVIDENT IN RECENT SATELLITE.
GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. THE GUSTY WINDS
WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THE REST OF THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THOUGH THIS HAS BEEN A LITTLE SLOWER THAN
EXPECTED.

THE HIGH SLIPS TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. BASICALLY JUST A COLD
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS. WIND CHILLS WILL
BE LESS OF A CONCERN WITH THE DECREASING WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SLIDES OFFSHORE EARLY FRIDAY WITH RETURN
FLOW BRINGING SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES (BUT STILL ON EITHER SIDE
OF FREEZING)...AS WELL AS INCREASING CLOUDS/MOISTURE. ONE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE ANOTHER TAKES SHAPE NEAR THE
CAROLINA COAST IN RESPONSE TO A SOUTHERN VORT MAX. MAJORITY OF
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE COASTAL LOW EFFECTS TO OUR SOUTHEAST...BUT DID
BUMP UP THE LOW END POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN MD.

THE MORE IMPORTANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR OUR AREA WILL BE A PAIR OF
BOUNDARIES TRAILING THE NORTHERN LOW CENTER. INCREASING SIGNAL IN
MODEL GUIDANCE OF A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
FIRST BOUNDARY AND HAVE THUS INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AVAILABLE. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND
COVERAGE...WITH GUIDANCE TENDING TO FAVOR A LATER ARRIVAL...BUT
THERE REMAINS POTENTIAL FOR THESE SNOW SHOWERS TO REACH THE METRO
AREA DURING PORTIONS OF EVENING RUSH HOUR. WITH THE ANTECEDENT
COLD CONDITIONS...ANY SNOW WOULD STICK ON UNTREATED ROADS.
CERTAINLY A SITUATION TO PAY ATTENTION TO.

THIS WILL ALSO MARK THE BEGINNING OF A PERIOD OF UPSLOPE
SNOW...HEAVIEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...BUT LASTING THROUGH
SATURDAY. WINTER WX ADVISORY POSSIBLE AS SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
EXPECTED.

SECOND BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND MARK THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDEST AIRMASS. EVEN THOUGH CHANCES DECREASE A
BIT...SOME SNOW SHOWERS COULD STILL MAKE IT ACROSS ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS IN
MOST AREA AND WINDS INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH
BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS MAY NECESSITATE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ALSO OF NOTE IS THE SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE SURGE
JUST AFTER THE BOUNDARY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY RESULT IN A
BURST OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY CLOSE TO 45 MPH.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST OF THE STRETCH WITH 850
MB TEMPS BELOW -20C AND STIFF WINDS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY BE
IN THE TEENS AND 20S WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS...AND BELOW ZERO IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. WIND GUSTS OF AT
LEAST 30-40 MPH WILL OCCUR SATURDAY...AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA (I.E. 45-50 MPH). THE WINDS WILL ONLY DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY SATURDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILLS MAY FAIL TO RISE ABOVE +10F
ON SATURDAY IN MUCH OF THE AREA...AND FALL BELOW ZERO SATURDAY
NIGHT. WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA (-5F) WILL LIKELY BE MET OVER
MOST OF THE AREA...AND WIND CHILL WARNINGS (-25F) ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES.

OTHER ISSUE FOR SATURDAY WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
AND STREAMERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA. SNSQ PARAMETER
IN THE NAM AND GFS...AND EVEN 12Z GFS QPF OUTPUT...PLACE THE FAVORED
AREA ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MD INCLUDING BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A PRETTY QUICK EROSION OF AN
IMPRESSIVELY COLD AIRMASS BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. NORMALLY THIS TYPE OF QUICK EROSION WOULD FORCE SOME KIND OF
PRECIPITATION...AND AS SUCH A LOT OF THE GUIDANCE IS TRYING TO BRING
SOME PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL FORCE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...WHICH WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEAST NEAR OR OVER THE
AREA. GUIDANCE DIVERGES GREATLY ON SURFACE LOW TRACK AND HOW MUCH
COLD AIR IS LEFT IN PLACE. BEST CHANCE FOR PROLONGED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. EAST OF
THERE PRECIPITATION MAY VERY WELL CHANGE TO RAIN BY TUESDAY. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
AMOUNTS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

AN ACTIVE PATTERN MAY PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK BUT
DETAILS ARE FUZZY GIVEN THE UNCERTAIN EVOLUTION OF THE EARLY WEEK
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PRIMARY ISSUE AFFECTING THE TERMINAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE
WIND. WNW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING
AND MID CIGS AROUND 5KFT HAVE DISSIPATED. VFR THROUGH THE BULK OF
FRIDAY WITH LIGHT SW WINDS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SNOW SHOWERS
AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
NOT HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT IN THE EXTENDED TAFS NOW...BUT
THESE COULD CAUSE BRIEF IMPACTS WITH SHORT PERIODS OF IFR CIGS AND
VIS.

WINDS INCREASE SHARPLY BEHIND FRONT...WITH NW GUSTS 25-35 KT
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY AND ONLY GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SATURDAY
NIGHT. COULD BE A FEW GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS. THERE WILL BE A
LINGERING THREAT OF ISOLD/SCT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY BWI/MTN.

SUB-VFR PSBL SUN NGT OR MON AS PRECIP DEVELOPS. WINDS LIGHT SUN
NGT BCMNG GNLY ELY MON.

&&

.MARINE...
W/NW WINDS CONTINUING TO GUST TO 20-25 KT THIS EVE ARE ONLY SLOWLY
DROPPING OFF. THE SCA OVER THE MORE PROTECTED WATERS WAS EXTENDED
TO 11 PM. WILL HAVE TO WATCH GUSTS AS IT MAY NEED ANOTHER
EXTENSION. STILL THINK WINDS SHOULD LIGHTEN BY MORNING. LIGHT SW
FLOW TO START FRIDAY BUT THAT WILL QUICKLY CHANGE DURING THE
EVENING AS ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. W/NW WINDS WILL INCREASE IMMEDIATELY. THIS MAY NEED TO
BE UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING GIVEN IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE SURGE JUST
BEHIND FRONT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH IN THAT
OCCURRING JUST YET. GALES THEN APPEAR LIKELY SATURDAY AND A
PORTION OF SATURDAY NIGHT. THE STRONG WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES
OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A FREEZING
SPRAY THREAT.

WINDS DROP BELOW GALE RELATIVELY QUICKLY SUNDAY...AND
REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADS/RCM
NEAR TERM...ADS/RCM
SHORT TERM...ADS/RCM
LONG TERM...DFH/RCM
AVIATION...ADS/DFH/RCM
MARINE...ADS/DFH/RCM



000
FXUS61 KLWX 120236
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
936 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE
WILL IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH NOW SITTING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING. MID-
ATLANTIC SLOWLY COMING UNDER ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW THOUGH LONG-WAVE
TROUGH STILL OVER EASTERN N AMERICA. HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISING AND
BL MOISTURE STILL THINNING AS EVIDENT IN RECENT SATELLITE.
GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. THE GUSTY WINDS
WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THE REST OF THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THOUGH THIS HAS BEEN A LITTLE SLOWER THAN
EXPECTED.

THE HIGH SLIPS TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. BASICALLY JUST A COLD
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS. WIND CHILLS WILL
BE LESS OF A CONCERN WITH THE DECREASING WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SLIDES OFFSHORE EARLY FRIDAY WITH RETURN
FLOW BRINGING SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES (BUT STILL ON EITHER SIDE
OF FREEZING)...AS WELL AS INCREASING CLOUDS/MOISTURE. ONE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE ANOTHER TAKES SHAPE NEAR THE
CAROLINA COAST IN RESPONSE TO A SOUTHERN VORT MAX. MAJORITY OF
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE COASTAL LOW EFFECTS TO OUR SOUTHEAST...BUT DID
BUMP UP THE LOW END POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN MD.

THE MORE IMPORTANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR OUR AREA WILL BE A PAIR OF
BOUNDARIES TRAILING THE NORTHERN LOW CENTER. INCREASING SIGNAL IN
MODEL GUIDANCE OF A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
FIRST BOUNDARY AND HAVE THUS INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AVAILABLE. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND
COVERAGE...WITH GUIDANCE TENDING TO FAVOR A LATER ARRIVAL...BUT
THERE REMAINS POTENTIAL FOR THESE SNOW SHOWERS TO REACH THE METRO
AREA DURING PORTIONS OF EVENING RUSH HOUR. WITH THE ANTECEDENT
COLD CONDITIONS...ANY SNOW WOULD STICK ON UNTREATED ROADS.
CERTAINLY A SITUATION TO PAY ATTENTION TO.

THIS WILL ALSO MARK THE BEGINNING OF A PERIOD OF UPSLOPE
SNOW...HEAVIEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...BUT LASTING THROUGH
SATURDAY. WINTER WX ADVISORY POSSIBLE AS SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
EXPECTED.

SECOND BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND MARK THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDEST AIRMASS. EVEN THOUGH CHANCES DECREASE A
BIT...SOME SNOW SHOWERS COULD STILL MAKE IT ACROSS ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS IN
MOST AREA AND WINDS INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH
BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS MAY NECESSITATE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ALSO OF NOTE IS THE SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE SURGE
JUST AFTER THE BOUNDARY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY RESULT IN A
BURST OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY CLOSE TO 45 MPH.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST OF THE STRETCH WITH 850
MB TEMPS BELOW -20C AND STIFF WINDS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY BE
IN THE TEENS AND 20S WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS...AND BELOW ZERO IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. WIND GUSTS OF AT
LEAST 30-40 MPH WILL OCCUR SATURDAY...AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA (I.E. 45-50 MPH). THE WINDS WILL ONLY DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY SATURDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILLS MAY FAIL TO RISE ABOVE +10F
ON SATURDAY IN MUCH OF THE AREA...AND FALL BELOW ZERO SATURDAY
NIGHT. WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA (-5F) WILL LIKELY BE MET OVER
MOST OF THE AREA...AND WIND CHILL WARNINGS (-25F) ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES.

OTHER ISSUE FOR SATURDAY WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
AND STREAMERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA. SNSQ PARAMETER
IN THE NAM AND GFS...AND EVEN 12Z GFS QPF OUTPUT...PLACE THE FAVORED
AREA ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MD INCLUDING BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A PRETTY QUICK EROSION OF AN
IMPRESSIVELY COLD AIRMASS BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. NORMALLY THIS TYPE OF QUICK EROSION WOULD FORCE SOME KIND OF
PRECIPITATION...AND AS SUCH A LOT OF THE GUIDANCE IS TRYING TO BRING
SOME PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL FORCE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...WHICH WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEAST NEAR OR OVER THE
AREA. GUIDANCE DIVERGES GREATLY ON SURFACE LOW TRACK AND HOW MUCH
COLD AIR IS LEFT IN PLACE. BEST CHANCE FOR PROLONGED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. EAST OF
THERE PRECIPITATION MAY VERY WELL CHANGE TO RAIN BY TUESDAY. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
AMOUNTS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

AN ACTIVE PATTERN MAY PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK BUT
DETAILS ARE FUZZY GIVEN THE UNCERTAIN EVOLUTION OF THE EARLY WEEK
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PRIMARY ISSUE AFFECTING THE TERMINAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE
WIND. WNW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING
AND MID CIGS AROUND 5KFT HAVE DISSIPATED. VFR THROUGH THE BULK OF
FRIDAY WITH LIGHT SW WINDS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SNOW SHOWERS
AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
NOT HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT IN THE EXTENDED TAFS NOW...BUT
THESE COULD CAUSE BRIEF IMPACTS WITH SHORT PERIODS OF IFR CIGS AND
VIS.

WINDS INCREASE SHARPLY BEHIND FRONT...WITH NW GUSTS 25-35 KT
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY AND ONLY GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SATURDAY
NIGHT. COULD BE A FEW GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS. THERE WILL BE A
LINGERING THREAT OF ISOLD/SCT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY BWI/MTN.

SUB-VFR PSBL SUN NGT OR MON AS PRECIP DEVELOPS. WINDS LIGHT SUN
NGT BCMNG GNLY ELY MON.

&&

.MARINE...
W/NW WINDS CONTINUING TO GUST TO 20-25 KT THIS EVE ARE ONLY SLOWLY
DROPPING OFF. THE SCA OVER THE MORE PROTECTED WATERS WAS EXTENDED
TO 11 PM. WILL HAVE TO WATCH GUSTS AS IT MAY NEED ANOTHER
EXTENSION. STILL THINK WINDS SHOULD LIGHTEN BY MORNING. LIGHT SW
FLOW TO START FRIDAY BUT THAT WILL QUICKLY CHANGE DURING THE
EVENING AS ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. W/NW WINDS WILL INCREASE IMMEDIATELY. THIS MAY NEED TO
BE UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING GIVEN IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE SURGE JUST
BEHIND FRONT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH IN THAT
OCCURRING JUST YET. GALES THEN APPEAR LIKELY SATURDAY AND A
PORTION OF SATURDAY NIGHT. THE STRONG WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES
OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A FREEZING
SPRAY THREAT.

WINDS DROP BELOW GALE RELATIVELY QUICKLY SUNDAY...AND
REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADS/RCM
NEAR TERM...ADS/RCM
SHORT TERM...ADS/RCM
LONG TERM...DFH/RCM
AVIATION...ADS/DFH/RCM
MARINE...ADS/DFH/RCM




000
FXUS61 KLWX 120236
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
936 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE
WILL IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH NOW SITTING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING. MID-
ATLANTIC SLOWLY COMING UNDER ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW THOUGH LONG-WAVE
TROUGH STILL OVER EASTERN N AMERICA. HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISING AND
BL MOISTURE STILL THINNING AS EVIDENT IN RECENT SATELLITE.
GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. THE GUSTY WINDS
WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THE REST OF THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THOUGH THIS HAS BEEN A LITTLE SLOWER THAN
EXPECTED.

THE HIGH SLIPS TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. BASICALLY JUST A COLD
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS. WIND CHILLS WILL
BE LESS OF A CONCERN WITH THE DECREASING WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SLIDES OFFSHORE EARLY FRIDAY WITH RETURN
FLOW BRINGING SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES (BUT STILL ON EITHER SIDE
OF FREEZING)...AS WELL AS INCREASING CLOUDS/MOISTURE. ONE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE ANOTHER TAKES SHAPE NEAR THE
CAROLINA COAST IN RESPONSE TO A SOUTHERN VORT MAX. MAJORITY OF
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE COASTAL LOW EFFECTS TO OUR SOUTHEAST...BUT DID
BUMP UP THE LOW END POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN MD.

THE MORE IMPORTANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR OUR AREA WILL BE A PAIR OF
BOUNDARIES TRAILING THE NORTHERN LOW CENTER. INCREASING SIGNAL IN
MODEL GUIDANCE OF A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
FIRST BOUNDARY AND HAVE THUS INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AVAILABLE. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND
COVERAGE...WITH GUIDANCE TENDING TO FAVOR A LATER ARRIVAL...BUT
THERE REMAINS POTENTIAL FOR THESE SNOW SHOWERS TO REACH THE METRO
AREA DURING PORTIONS OF EVENING RUSH HOUR. WITH THE ANTECEDENT
COLD CONDITIONS...ANY SNOW WOULD STICK ON UNTREATED ROADS.
CERTAINLY A SITUATION TO PAY ATTENTION TO.

THIS WILL ALSO MARK THE BEGINNING OF A PERIOD OF UPSLOPE
SNOW...HEAVIEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...BUT LASTING THROUGH
SATURDAY. WINTER WX ADVISORY POSSIBLE AS SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
EXPECTED.

SECOND BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND MARK THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDEST AIRMASS. EVEN THOUGH CHANCES DECREASE A
BIT...SOME SNOW SHOWERS COULD STILL MAKE IT ACROSS ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS IN
MOST AREA AND WINDS INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH
BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS MAY NECESSITATE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ALSO OF NOTE IS THE SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE SURGE
JUST AFTER THE BOUNDARY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY RESULT IN A
BURST OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY CLOSE TO 45 MPH.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST OF THE STRETCH WITH 850
MB TEMPS BELOW -20C AND STIFF WINDS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY BE
IN THE TEENS AND 20S WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS...AND BELOW ZERO IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. WIND GUSTS OF AT
LEAST 30-40 MPH WILL OCCUR SATURDAY...AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA (I.E. 45-50 MPH). THE WINDS WILL ONLY DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY SATURDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILLS MAY FAIL TO RISE ABOVE +10F
ON SATURDAY IN MUCH OF THE AREA...AND FALL BELOW ZERO SATURDAY
NIGHT. WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA (-5F) WILL LIKELY BE MET OVER
MOST OF THE AREA...AND WIND CHILL WARNINGS (-25F) ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES.

OTHER ISSUE FOR SATURDAY WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
AND STREAMERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA. SNSQ PARAMETER
IN THE NAM AND GFS...AND EVEN 12Z GFS QPF OUTPUT...PLACE THE FAVORED
AREA ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MD INCLUDING BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A PRETTY QUICK EROSION OF AN
IMPRESSIVELY COLD AIRMASS BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. NORMALLY THIS TYPE OF QUICK EROSION WOULD FORCE SOME KIND OF
PRECIPITATION...AND AS SUCH A LOT OF THE GUIDANCE IS TRYING TO BRING
SOME PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL FORCE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...WHICH WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEAST NEAR OR OVER THE
AREA. GUIDANCE DIVERGES GREATLY ON SURFACE LOW TRACK AND HOW MUCH
COLD AIR IS LEFT IN PLACE. BEST CHANCE FOR PROLONGED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. EAST OF
THERE PRECIPITATION MAY VERY WELL CHANGE TO RAIN BY TUESDAY. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
AMOUNTS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

AN ACTIVE PATTERN MAY PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK BUT
DETAILS ARE FUZZY GIVEN THE UNCERTAIN EVOLUTION OF THE EARLY WEEK
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PRIMARY ISSUE AFFECTING THE TERMINAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE
WIND. WNW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING
AND MID CIGS AROUND 5KFT HAVE DISSIPATED. VFR THROUGH THE BULK OF
FRIDAY WITH LIGHT SW WINDS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SNOW SHOWERS
AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
NOT HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT IN THE EXTENDED TAFS NOW...BUT
THESE COULD CAUSE BRIEF IMPACTS WITH SHORT PERIODS OF IFR CIGS AND
VIS.

WINDS INCREASE SHARPLY BEHIND FRONT...WITH NW GUSTS 25-35 KT
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY AND ONLY GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SATURDAY
NIGHT. COULD BE A FEW GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS. THERE WILL BE A
LINGERING THREAT OF ISOLD/SCT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY BWI/MTN.

SUB-VFR PSBL SUN NGT OR MON AS PRECIP DEVELOPS. WINDS LIGHT SUN
NGT BCMNG GNLY ELY MON.

&&

.MARINE...
W/NW WINDS CONTINUING TO GUST TO 20-25 KT THIS EVE ARE ONLY SLOWLY
DROPPING OFF. THE SCA OVER THE MORE PROTECTED WATERS WAS EXTENDED
TO 11 PM. WILL HAVE TO WATCH GUSTS AS IT MAY NEED ANOTHER
EXTENSION. STILL THINK WINDS SHOULD LIGHTEN BY MORNING. LIGHT SW
FLOW TO START FRIDAY BUT THAT WILL QUICKLY CHANGE DURING THE
EVENING AS ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. W/NW WINDS WILL INCREASE IMMEDIATELY. THIS MAY NEED TO
BE UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING GIVEN IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE SURGE JUST
BEHIND FRONT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH IN THAT
OCCURRING JUST YET. GALES THEN APPEAR LIKELY SATURDAY AND A
PORTION OF SATURDAY NIGHT. THE STRONG WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES
OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A FREEZING
SPRAY THREAT.

WINDS DROP BELOW GALE RELATIVELY QUICKLY SUNDAY...AND
REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADS/RCM
NEAR TERM...ADS/RCM
SHORT TERM...ADS/RCM
LONG TERM...DFH/RCM
AVIATION...ADS/DFH/RCM
MARINE...ADS/DFH/RCM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 120059
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
759 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY MORNING...LIFTING
NORTHEAST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA COASTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS
YEAR. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CENTERS ~1030MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH
VALLEY. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE GULF STATES. COLD
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. WIND
CHILLS IN THE 20S UNDER A SUNNY SKY.

FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. WINDS DECOUPLE
ALLOWING FOR EXCEPTIONAL RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS EVENING AS
DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE
LATE TONIGHT AS ATTENTION TURNS TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH. HEIGHT FALLS WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SC/NC
COAST BY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL LEVEL OFF
THRU LATE TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW
20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE NC COAST FRI MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PUSHES OVER THE CAROLINAS. SHORTWAVE AND INCREASING WINDS
ALOFT WILL PROVIDE ADEQUATE UVM OVER AN AREA OF 280-285K ISENTROPIC
LIFT ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE LOW. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE
MODEST...BUT MIXING RATIOS PROGGED TO REACH 3.0 TO 4.0 G/KG. THERMAL
PROFILES INDICATE HIGH RH/ICE IN THE SNOW GROWTH LAYER ALONG WITH
ABUNDANT LIFT DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. THE NET
RESULT WILL BE INCREASING POPS THRU MID TO LATE MORNING FRI AS SNOW
SPREADS INTO THE REGION. PRECIP CONTINUES THRU THE AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW LIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. QUESTION BECOMES HOW FAR NW
THE PRECIP SPREADS FRI AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE SE
COUNTIES TO CATEGORICAL...TAPERING OFF THE CHANCE OVER THE NW
COUNTIES. WITH THE LUXURY OF COLD CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES...SNOW
IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PREDOMINATE PTYPE THRU THE DURATION OF THE
EVENT. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE LATE FRIDAY NEAREST THE ALBEMARLE SOUND
WHERE A LITTLE SLEET MAY MIX WITH THE SNOW TOWARD THE END OF THE
EVENT. HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA
WHERE BANDING FROM FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE
LOW IS INDICATED IN THE MODELS. 2-4 INCHES IS EXPECTED IN THAT
AREA...REQUIRING A WINTER STORM WARNING. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST INTO
HAMPTON ROADS AND THE LOWER PENINSULA AND EASTERN SHORE...SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF TO 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES IN EFFECT. PLEASE SEE LATEST WSW FOR MORE INFO. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS TAPER OFF TO 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH TOWARD THE TRI CITIES AND MD
ERN SHORE...THEN A DUSTING TO HALF AN INCH RICHMOND NORTH AND WEST.
SNOW COMES TO AN END FRI EVENING AS THE SFC LOW PUSHES WELL OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY PUSHES THRU THE
REGION.

CLOSED UPPER LOW/ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE POLAR VORTEX DIGS OVER
NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. ~1040MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
MIDWEST...USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. WINDY SAT WITH NW WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH (STRONGER NEAR THE COAST AND OVER THE
EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS SAT FORECAST TO WARM ONLY INTO THE MID 20S NW
TO LOW 30S SE (-2 STD DEV) UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. WIND
CHILL VALUES WILL BE IN THE TEENS...RESULTING IN A RAW/COLD/WINDY
DAY. TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS SAT NIGHT.
WINDS DECOUPLE INLAND AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION...BUT WIND
CHILLS STILL FORECAST IN THE SINGLE DIGITS INLAND TO 0 TO 8 BELOW
NRN NECK TO THE ERN SHORE. THE HIGH CENTERS OVER THE LOCAL AREA
SUNDAY WITH NLY WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. SLIGHTLY COLDER SUN WITH
DECREASED MIXING. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 20S (-2 STD DEV)
UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ATTENTION
TURNING TO A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. THERE
REMAINS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS...ALTHOUGH
THE 11/12Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING SLOWER...AND WARMER FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. THE 11/12Z GFS CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT PCPN MONDAY AS A NRN STREAM TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WOULD MAINLY FALL AS SN OR SN/IP...WITH A TRANSITION TO
RA CLOSER TO THE COAST BY AFTERNOON. SUBSTANTIAL WARMING ALOFT WOULD
GENERALLY RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO RA MONDAY NIGHT...ASIDE FROM THE
FAR NW WHERE MIXED PCPN COULD PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH AN
IN-SITU WEDGE IN PLACE. THE LATEST DATA SCOURS OUT THE WEDGE BY
AFTERNOON WITH P-TYPE BECOMING RA EVEN IN THE FAR NW. DRYING OCCURS
MIDWEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE
CLIPPING THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
OF COOLER AIR AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS MONDAY WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOW 30S ALONG
AND W OF I-95...WHILE COASTAL LOCATIONS WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOW 40S. TEMPERATURES REMAIN STEADY MONDAY EVENING AND BEGIN TO RISE
OVERNIGHT EVENTUALLY WARMING INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S...FOLLOWED BY
LOW 40S NE...TO UPPER 40S SW THURSDAY. MORNING LOWS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. IN THE
MEANTIME...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WILL MOVE
INTO THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY MORNING.

SNOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTH AROUND MIDDAY. HAVE VSBY DROPPING
TO ONE HALF MILE IN THE AFTERNOON AT ECG ORF AND PHF. WENT CLOSE TO
LAV MOS AS MET HOLDS BACK ON TAKING VSBY INTO THE IFR RANGE. WITH
THE ACCUMULATING SNOW THAT IS EXPECTED (GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES)...
IFR SHOULD BE NO PROBLEM. SBY LOOKS TO GET SOME SNOW AS WELL BUT DID
NOT GO AS LOW WITH THE VSBY THERE AS LESS THAN ONE INCH OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED. LIGHT SNOW MAY FALL AT RIC BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK...GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOP FRIDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY. VFR AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
PCPN DEVELOPS MONDAY AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
SW. PCPN BEGINS AS SNOW UNDER A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUT THIS BREAKS
DOWN AND WARMER AIR WORKS IN AND CHANGES SNOW TO RAIN FROM SE TO NW.

RAIN CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
DRY WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FORM THE NW TONIGHT AND SETTLES
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY MORNING. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH
AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...WITH SCA HEADLINES GRADUALLY
ENDING THROUGH THE EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NE FRIDAY
WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY AFTERNOON THE WIND WILL BECOME E/NE S OF
CAPE CHARLES WITH GENERALLY A S/SE DIRECTION N OF CAPE CHARLES.
SPEEDS WILL BE AOB 15KT. ADDITIONALLY...THIS LOW WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF SN...WHICH WILL REDUCE VSBY. AS THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NE
FRIDAY NIGHT A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. A NW WIND WILL AVERAGE 25-30KT WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35-40KT OVER THE OCEAN AND BAY. SEAS BUILD TO 5-
8FT WITH 4-5 FT WAVES IN THE BAY. GALE FLAGS HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY (4TH PERIOD). THESE WILL LIKELY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NRN OCEAN ZONES. FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND...WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN
CAPPED AT HIGH-END SCA AT THIS TIME. FREEZING SPRAY IS LIKELY AS
TEMPERATURES PLUMMET SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES
ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FORM THE SW EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE
BLOW-OUT TIDES SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
     FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NCZ012>014.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR NCZ015>017-030>032-102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
     FRIDAY NIGHT FOR VAZ092-093-095>098-100-523>525.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM/TMG
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 120059
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
759 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY MORNING...LIFTING
NORTHEAST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA COASTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS
YEAR. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CENTERS ~1030MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH
VALLEY. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE GULF STATES. COLD
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. WIND
CHILLS IN THE 20S UNDER A SUNNY SKY.

FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. WINDS DECOUPLE
ALLOWING FOR EXCEPTIONAL RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS EVENING AS
DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE
LATE TONIGHT AS ATTENTION TURNS TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH. HEIGHT FALLS WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SC/NC
COAST BY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL LEVEL OFF
THRU LATE TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW
20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE NC COAST FRI MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PUSHES OVER THE CAROLINAS. SHORTWAVE AND INCREASING WINDS
ALOFT WILL PROVIDE ADEQUATE UVM OVER AN AREA OF 280-285K ISENTROPIC
LIFT ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE LOW. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE
MODEST...BUT MIXING RATIOS PROGGED TO REACH 3.0 TO 4.0 G/KG. THERMAL
PROFILES INDICATE HIGH RH/ICE IN THE SNOW GROWTH LAYER ALONG WITH
ABUNDANT LIFT DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. THE NET
RESULT WILL BE INCREASING POPS THRU MID TO LATE MORNING FRI AS SNOW
SPREADS INTO THE REGION. PRECIP CONTINUES THRU THE AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW LIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. QUESTION BECOMES HOW FAR NW
THE PRECIP SPREADS FRI AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE SE
COUNTIES TO CATEGORICAL...TAPERING OFF THE CHANCE OVER THE NW
COUNTIES. WITH THE LUXURY OF COLD CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES...SNOW
IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PREDOMINATE PTYPE THRU THE DURATION OF THE
EVENT. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE LATE FRIDAY NEAREST THE ALBEMARLE SOUND
WHERE A LITTLE SLEET MAY MIX WITH THE SNOW TOWARD THE END OF THE
EVENT. HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA
WHERE BANDING FROM FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE
LOW IS INDICATED IN THE MODELS. 2-4 INCHES IS EXPECTED IN THAT
AREA...REQUIRING A WINTER STORM WARNING. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST INTO
HAMPTON ROADS AND THE LOWER PENINSULA AND EASTERN SHORE...SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF TO 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES IN EFFECT. PLEASE SEE LATEST WSW FOR MORE INFO. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS TAPER OFF TO 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH TOWARD THE TRI CITIES AND MD
ERN SHORE...THEN A DUSTING TO HALF AN INCH RICHMOND NORTH AND WEST.
SNOW COMES TO AN END FRI EVENING AS THE SFC LOW PUSHES WELL OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY PUSHES THRU THE
REGION.

CLOSED UPPER LOW/ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE POLAR VORTEX DIGS OVER
NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. ~1040MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
MIDWEST...USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. WINDY SAT WITH NW WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH (STRONGER NEAR THE COAST AND OVER THE
EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS SAT FORECAST TO WARM ONLY INTO THE MID 20S NW
TO LOW 30S SE (-2 STD DEV) UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. WIND
CHILL VALUES WILL BE IN THE TEENS...RESULTING IN A RAW/COLD/WINDY
DAY. TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS SAT NIGHT.
WINDS DECOUPLE INLAND AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION...BUT WIND
CHILLS STILL FORECAST IN THE SINGLE DIGITS INLAND TO 0 TO 8 BELOW
NRN NECK TO THE ERN SHORE. THE HIGH CENTERS OVER THE LOCAL AREA
SUNDAY WITH NLY WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. SLIGHTLY COLDER SUN WITH
DECREASED MIXING. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 20S (-2 STD DEV)
UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ATTENTION
TURNING TO A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. THERE
REMAINS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS...ALTHOUGH
THE 11/12Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING SLOWER...AND WARMER FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. THE 11/12Z GFS CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT PCPN MONDAY AS A NRN STREAM TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WOULD MAINLY FALL AS SN OR SN/IP...WITH A TRANSITION TO
RA CLOSER TO THE COAST BY AFTERNOON. SUBSTANTIAL WARMING ALOFT WOULD
GENERALLY RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO RA MONDAY NIGHT...ASIDE FROM THE
FAR NW WHERE MIXED PCPN COULD PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH AN
IN-SITU WEDGE IN PLACE. THE LATEST DATA SCOURS OUT THE WEDGE BY
AFTERNOON WITH P-TYPE BECOMING RA EVEN IN THE FAR NW. DRYING OCCURS
MIDWEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE
CLIPPING THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
OF COOLER AIR AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS MONDAY WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOW 30S ALONG
AND W OF I-95...WHILE COASTAL LOCATIONS WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOW 40S. TEMPERATURES REMAIN STEADY MONDAY EVENING AND BEGIN TO RISE
OVERNIGHT EVENTUALLY WARMING INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S...FOLLOWED BY
LOW 40S NE...TO UPPER 40S SW THURSDAY. MORNING LOWS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. IN THE
MEANTIME...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WILL MOVE
INTO THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY MORNING.

SNOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTH AROUND MIDDAY. HAVE VSBY DROPPING
TO ONE HALF MILE IN THE AFTERNOON AT ECG ORF AND PHF. WENT CLOSE TO
LAV MOS AS MET HOLDS BACK ON TAKING VSBY INTO THE IFR RANGE. WITH
THE ACCUMULATING SNOW THAT IS EXPECTED (GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES)...
IFR SHOULD BE NO PROBLEM. SBY LOOKS TO GET SOME SNOW AS WELL BUT DID
NOT GO AS LOW WITH THE VSBY THERE AS LESS THAN ONE INCH OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED. LIGHT SNOW MAY FALL AT RIC BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK...GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOP FRIDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY. VFR AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
PCPN DEVELOPS MONDAY AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
SW. PCPN BEGINS AS SNOW UNDER A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUT THIS BREAKS
DOWN AND WARMER AIR WORKS IN AND CHANGES SNOW TO RAIN FROM SE TO NW.

RAIN CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
DRY WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FORM THE NW TONIGHT AND SETTLES
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY MORNING. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH
AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...WITH SCA HEADLINES GRADUALLY
ENDING THROUGH THE EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NE FRIDAY
WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY AFTERNOON THE WIND WILL BECOME E/NE S OF
CAPE CHARLES WITH GENERALLY A S/SE DIRECTION N OF CAPE CHARLES.
SPEEDS WILL BE AOB 15KT. ADDITIONALLY...THIS LOW WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF SN...WHICH WILL REDUCE VSBY. AS THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NE
FRIDAY NIGHT A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. A NW WIND WILL AVERAGE 25-30KT WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35-40KT OVER THE OCEAN AND BAY. SEAS BUILD TO 5-
8FT WITH 4-5 FT WAVES IN THE BAY. GALE FLAGS HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY (4TH PERIOD). THESE WILL LIKELY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NRN OCEAN ZONES. FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND...WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN
CAPPED AT HIGH-END SCA AT THIS TIME. FREEZING SPRAY IS LIKELY AS
TEMPERATURES PLUMMET SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES
ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FORM THE SW EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE
BLOW-OUT TIDES SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
     FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NCZ012>014.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR NCZ015>017-030>032-102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
     FRIDAY NIGHT FOR VAZ092-093-095>098-100-523>525.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM/TMG
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KRNK 120015
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
715 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AHEAD OF
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY
EARLY FRIDAY. THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CROSS OUR AREA ON FRIDAY
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN VERY COLD BUT OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EST THURSDAY...

BRIEF LULL IN THE ACTION WILL OCCUR EARLY TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH UNDER MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES THIS EVENING. HOWEVER LACK OF MOISTURE WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN QUICKLY DEVELOPS ALOFT LATE TONIGHT
IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT DIGGING UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE
NEXT ARCTIC SHOT. GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN
MID CLOUDS FROM THE NW BY MIDNIGHT WITH THIS CANOPY OVERSPREADING
THE REGION BY DAYBREAK. BOUNDARY LAYER APPEARS TOO DRY FOR ANY
PRECIP OTHER THAN MAYBE A FLURRY FAR WEST LATE SO KEEPING POPS OUT
UNTIL JUST BEFORE DAWN SW. TEMPS REMAIN VERY COLD AND WITH LOW
DEWPOINTS EXPECTING A QUICK DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET ESPCLY VALLEYS
AS WIND DIMINISH BEFORE THINGS STEADY OUT WITH CLOUDS ARRIVING.
THIS SUPPORTS GOING A LITTLE BELOW MOS WITH LOWS MOSTLY TEENS WITH
A FEW SINGLE DIGITS NW VALLEYS WHERE SNOW COVER PREVAILS.

FAST MOVING MID LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE CLIPPER WILL PASS TO
THE SOUTH FRIDAY WITH THE SURFACE LOW QUICKLY DEEPENING UPON REACHING
THE CAROLINA COAST. LATEST MODELS BRING A SWATH OF LIFT WITH WEAK
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING INTO THE WESTERN SLOPES FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE
UPWARD MOTION JUMPS TO THE COASTAL SYSTEM. JUST HOW FAR SNOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WESTERN SLUG OF MOISTURE MAKES IT REMAINS IFFY BUT APPEARS
MAY RUN OUT TO THE BLUE RIDGE BEFORE FADING/REDEVELOPING PIEDMONT PRIOR
TO ENDING. LATEST QPF OF AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS WESTERN
MOUNTAINS SUPPORTS AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW PER HIGH RATIOS...WITH LESS
THAN AN INCH I-81 CORRIDOR/BLUE RIDGE...AND ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS TO THE
EAST. THEREFORE UPPED POPS A BIT FAR WEST AND EXTENDED HIGHER CHANCES
EAST GIVEN FAST MOVEMENT AND POTENTIAL FOR A BAND TO SNEAK OUT ESPCLY
IF THE SHORTWAVE IS A BIT FASTER UNDER STRONG LOW LEVEL BACKED FLOW PER
THE GFS. AMOUNTS STILL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AND GIVEN TIMING OF
MOSTLY BETWEEN THE MORNING/EVENING RUSH HOURS WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW. OTRW A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN THE ONGOING FRIGID
TEMPS WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION LIKELY TO PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 30S
EAST...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE BEFORE
THE FRONT CROSSES LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...

UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ONGOING FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH A LOW LEVEL JET PEAKING AROUND 50 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
MUCH DRIER AIR COMES IN BEHIND THE CLIPPER. MODELS SUGGEST ONLY
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN WESTERN GREENBRIER
COUNTY BY SATURDAY EVENING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...PRESSURE RISES AND
INVERSION HEIGHT ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE AND INTO THE
NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF
ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE MENTIONED THIS
POTENTIAL THREAT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

COLDEST AIR WITH THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE CENTER OF THE
SURFACE HIGH IS CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT THE WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG...BUT WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES...THE COMBINATION WILL STILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD BACK OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY FROM THE
WEST. LOW CONFIDENCE IN HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE TO SATURATE LOWER
LAYERS ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. NO CHANGES IN THE
ARRIVAL TIME OF THE PRECIPITATION FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EST THURSDAY...

A PIECE OF THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS WEDGED DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS WITH COASTAL TROFING ALSO DEVELOPING ON MONDAY. THE GFS
AND CANADIAN BRING A SURFACE LOW FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SUNDAY THEN DEEPEN THE LOW AND TRACK IT NORTHEAST TO THE CAROLINAS
BY TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS INITIALLY WEAKER WITH THE LOW THEN FASTER
TRACKING IT NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY. OF COURSE THE TRACK
OF THE LOW WILL HAVE TREMENDOUS INFLUENCE ON THE RESULTING WEATHER
FOR THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. WPC FAVORING ENSEMBLES FORECASTS IN
THIS TIME FRAME. BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS STORMS SYSTEM
AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE ON LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA STAYS COLD ENOUGH AT ALL LEVEL FOR SNOW THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THEN VERY STRONG SOUTHERLY JET BRINGS IN WARMER AIR
ABOVE THE SURFACE. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE MIXED WINTER
PRECIPITATION. WITH THE WEDGE IN PLACE...MODELS MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE
WARMING UP THE SURFACE THROUGH 850 MB LAYER MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM EST THURSDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PERSIST OVERNIGHT AT ALL
SITES. HOWEVER...AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD BRING INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. CEILINGS WILL STEADILY DROP BY DAWN ON SATURDAY.

CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES INCREASES AFTER
12Z SATURDAY FOR BLF/LWB/BCB...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
OVERHEAD TO BRING LIGHT SNOW. ROA MAY SEE PASSING FLURRIES...BUT
IT SHOULD HOLD AT VFR. LYH AND DAN SHOULD STAY VFR AND REMAIN DRY.
WINDS WILL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON SATURDAY EVENING...AND GUST UP TO 20 KT AT BLF AND BCB.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER ROUND OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL ENSUE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DURING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AS ANOTHER SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES. ROA/LYH/DAN SHOULD STAY VFR THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT CONDITIONS COULD REMAIN MVFR/IFR FOR BLF/LWB/BCB
UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT POOR FLYING WEATHER WILL TAKE PLACE
DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...BUT FURTHER UPDATES FROM THE LONGER RANGE MODELS
MAY IMPACT THE DETAILS ON PRECIPITATION TYPE AND STORM TRACK.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...PW




000
FXUS61 KRNK 120015
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
715 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AHEAD OF
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY
EARLY FRIDAY. THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CROSS OUR AREA ON FRIDAY
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN VERY COLD BUT OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EST THURSDAY...

BRIEF LULL IN THE ACTION WILL OCCUR EARLY TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH UNDER MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES THIS EVENING. HOWEVER LACK OF MOISTURE WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN QUICKLY DEVELOPS ALOFT LATE TONIGHT
IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT DIGGING UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE
NEXT ARCTIC SHOT. GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN
MID CLOUDS FROM THE NW BY MIDNIGHT WITH THIS CANOPY OVERSPREADING
THE REGION BY DAYBREAK. BOUNDARY LAYER APPEARS TOO DRY FOR ANY
PRECIP OTHER THAN MAYBE A FLURRY FAR WEST LATE SO KEEPING POPS OUT
UNTIL JUST BEFORE DAWN SW. TEMPS REMAIN VERY COLD AND WITH LOW
DEWPOINTS EXPECTING A QUICK DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET ESPCLY VALLEYS
AS WIND DIMINISH BEFORE THINGS STEADY OUT WITH CLOUDS ARRIVING.
THIS SUPPORTS GOING A LITTLE BELOW MOS WITH LOWS MOSTLY TEENS WITH
A FEW SINGLE DIGITS NW VALLEYS WHERE SNOW COVER PREVAILS.

FAST MOVING MID LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE CLIPPER WILL PASS TO
THE SOUTH FRIDAY WITH THE SURFACE LOW QUICKLY DEEPENING UPON REACHING
THE CAROLINA COAST. LATEST MODELS BRING A SWATH OF LIFT WITH WEAK
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING INTO THE WESTERN SLOPES FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE
UPWARD MOTION JUMPS TO THE COASTAL SYSTEM. JUST HOW FAR SNOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WESTERN SLUG OF MOISTURE MAKES IT REMAINS IFFY BUT APPEARS
MAY RUN OUT TO THE BLUE RIDGE BEFORE FADING/REDEVELOPING PIEDMONT PRIOR
TO ENDING. LATEST QPF OF AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS WESTERN
MOUNTAINS SUPPORTS AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW PER HIGH RATIOS...WITH LESS
THAN AN INCH I-81 CORRIDOR/BLUE RIDGE...AND ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS TO THE
EAST. THEREFORE UPPED POPS A BIT FAR WEST AND EXTENDED HIGHER CHANCES
EAST GIVEN FAST MOVEMENT AND POTENTIAL FOR A BAND TO SNEAK OUT ESPCLY
IF THE SHORTWAVE IS A BIT FASTER UNDER STRONG LOW LEVEL BACKED FLOW PER
THE GFS. AMOUNTS STILL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AND GIVEN TIMING OF
MOSTLY BETWEEN THE MORNING/EVENING RUSH HOURS WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW. OTRW A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN THE ONGOING FRIGID
TEMPS WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION LIKELY TO PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 30S
EAST...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE BEFORE
THE FRONT CROSSES LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...

UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ONGOING FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH A LOW LEVEL JET PEAKING AROUND 50 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
MUCH DRIER AIR COMES IN BEHIND THE CLIPPER. MODELS SUGGEST ONLY
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN WESTERN GREENBRIER
COUNTY BY SATURDAY EVENING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...PRESSURE RISES AND
INVERSION HEIGHT ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE AND INTO THE
NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF
ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE MENTIONED THIS
POTENTIAL THREAT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

COLDEST AIR WITH THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE CENTER OF THE
SURFACE HIGH IS CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT THE WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG...BUT WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES...THE COMBINATION WILL STILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD BACK OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY FROM THE
WEST. LOW CONFIDENCE IN HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE TO SATURATE LOWER
LAYERS ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. NO CHANGES IN THE
ARRIVAL TIME OF THE PRECIPITATION FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EST THURSDAY...

A PIECE OF THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS WEDGED DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS WITH COASTAL TROFING ALSO DEVELOPING ON MONDAY. THE GFS
AND CANADIAN BRING A SURFACE LOW FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SUNDAY THEN DEEPEN THE LOW AND TRACK IT NORTHEAST TO THE CAROLINAS
BY TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS INITIALLY WEAKER WITH THE LOW THEN FASTER
TRACKING IT NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY. OF COURSE THE TRACK
OF THE LOW WILL HAVE TREMENDOUS INFLUENCE ON THE RESULTING WEATHER
FOR THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. WPC FAVORING ENSEMBLES FORECASTS IN
THIS TIME FRAME. BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS STORMS SYSTEM
AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE ON LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA STAYS COLD ENOUGH AT ALL LEVEL FOR SNOW THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THEN VERY STRONG SOUTHERLY JET BRINGS IN WARMER AIR
ABOVE THE SURFACE. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE MIXED WINTER
PRECIPITATION. WITH THE WEDGE IN PLACE...MODELS MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE
WARMING UP THE SURFACE THROUGH 850 MB LAYER MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM EST THURSDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PERSIST OVERNIGHT AT ALL
SITES. HOWEVER...AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD BRING INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. CEILINGS WILL STEADILY DROP BY DAWN ON SATURDAY.

CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES INCREASES AFTER
12Z SATURDAY FOR BLF/LWB/BCB...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
OVERHEAD TO BRING LIGHT SNOW. ROA MAY SEE PASSING FLURRIES...BUT
IT SHOULD HOLD AT VFR. LYH AND DAN SHOULD STAY VFR AND REMAIN DRY.
WINDS WILL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON SATURDAY EVENING...AND GUST UP TO 20 KT AT BLF AND BCB.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER ROUND OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL ENSUE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DURING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AS ANOTHER SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES. ROA/LYH/DAN SHOULD STAY VFR THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT CONDITIONS COULD REMAIN MVFR/IFR FOR BLF/LWB/BCB
UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT POOR FLYING WEATHER WILL TAKE PLACE
DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...BUT FURTHER UPDATES FROM THE LONGER RANGE MODELS
MAY IMPACT THE DETAILS ON PRECIPITATION TYPE AND STORM TRACK.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...PW



000
FXUS61 KRNK 120015
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
715 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AHEAD OF
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY
EARLY FRIDAY. THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CROSS OUR AREA ON FRIDAY
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN VERY COLD BUT OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EST THURSDAY...

BRIEF LULL IN THE ACTION WILL OCCUR EARLY TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH UNDER MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES THIS EVENING. HOWEVER LACK OF MOISTURE WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN QUICKLY DEVELOPS ALOFT LATE TONIGHT
IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT DIGGING UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE
NEXT ARCTIC SHOT. GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN
MID CLOUDS FROM THE NW BY MIDNIGHT WITH THIS CANOPY OVERSPREADING
THE REGION BY DAYBREAK. BOUNDARY LAYER APPEARS TOO DRY FOR ANY
PRECIP OTHER THAN MAYBE A FLURRY FAR WEST LATE SO KEEPING POPS OUT
UNTIL JUST BEFORE DAWN SW. TEMPS REMAIN VERY COLD AND WITH LOW
DEWPOINTS EXPECTING A QUICK DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET ESPCLY VALLEYS
AS WIND DIMINISH BEFORE THINGS STEADY OUT WITH CLOUDS ARRIVING.
THIS SUPPORTS GOING A LITTLE BELOW MOS WITH LOWS MOSTLY TEENS WITH
A FEW SINGLE DIGITS NW VALLEYS WHERE SNOW COVER PREVAILS.

FAST MOVING MID LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE CLIPPER WILL PASS TO
THE SOUTH FRIDAY WITH THE SURFACE LOW QUICKLY DEEPENING UPON REACHING
THE CAROLINA COAST. LATEST MODELS BRING A SWATH OF LIFT WITH WEAK
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING INTO THE WESTERN SLOPES FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE
UPWARD MOTION JUMPS TO THE COASTAL SYSTEM. JUST HOW FAR SNOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WESTERN SLUG OF MOISTURE MAKES IT REMAINS IFFY BUT APPEARS
MAY RUN OUT TO THE BLUE RIDGE BEFORE FADING/REDEVELOPING PIEDMONT PRIOR
TO ENDING. LATEST QPF OF AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS WESTERN
MOUNTAINS SUPPORTS AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW PER HIGH RATIOS...WITH LESS
THAN AN INCH I-81 CORRIDOR/BLUE RIDGE...AND ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS TO THE
EAST. THEREFORE UPPED POPS A BIT FAR WEST AND EXTENDED HIGHER CHANCES
EAST GIVEN FAST MOVEMENT AND POTENTIAL FOR A BAND TO SNEAK OUT ESPCLY
IF THE SHORTWAVE IS A BIT FASTER UNDER STRONG LOW LEVEL BACKED FLOW PER
THE GFS. AMOUNTS STILL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AND GIVEN TIMING OF
MOSTLY BETWEEN THE MORNING/EVENING RUSH HOURS WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW. OTRW A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN THE ONGOING FRIGID
TEMPS WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION LIKELY TO PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 30S
EAST...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE BEFORE
THE FRONT CROSSES LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...

UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ONGOING FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH A LOW LEVEL JET PEAKING AROUND 50 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
MUCH DRIER AIR COMES IN BEHIND THE CLIPPER. MODELS SUGGEST ONLY
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN WESTERN GREENBRIER
COUNTY BY SATURDAY EVENING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...PRESSURE RISES AND
INVERSION HEIGHT ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE AND INTO THE
NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF
ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE MENTIONED THIS
POTENTIAL THREAT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

COLDEST AIR WITH THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE CENTER OF THE
SURFACE HIGH IS CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT THE WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG...BUT WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES...THE COMBINATION WILL STILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD BACK OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY FROM THE
WEST. LOW CONFIDENCE IN HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE TO SATURATE LOWER
LAYERS ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. NO CHANGES IN THE
ARRIVAL TIME OF THE PRECIPITATION FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EST THURSDAY...

A PIECE OF THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS WEDGED DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS WITH COASTAL TROFING ALSO DEVELOPING ON MONDAY. THE GFS
AND CANADIAN BRING A SURFACE LOW FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SUNDAY THEN DEEPEN THE LOW AND TRACK IT NORTHEAST TO THE CAROLINAS
BY TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS INITIALLY WEAKER WITH THE LOW THEN FASTER
TRACKING IT NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY. OF COURSE THE TRACK
OF THE LOW WILL HAVE TREMENDOUS INFLUENCE ON THE RESULTING WEATHER
FOR THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. WPC FAVORING ENSEMBLES FORECASTS IN
THIS TIME FRAME. BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS STORMS SYSTEM
AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE ON LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA STAYS COLD ENOUGH AT ALL LEVEL FOR SNOW THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THEN VERY STRONG SOUTHERLY JET BRINGS IN WARMER AIR
ABOVE THE SURFACE. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE MIXED WINTER
PRECIPITATION. WITH THE WEDGE IN PLACE...MODELS MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE
WARMING UP THE SURFACE THROUGH 850 MB LAYER MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM EST THURSDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PERSIST OVERNIGHT AT ALL
SITES. HOWEVER...AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD BRING INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. CEILINGS WILL STEADILY DROP BY DAWN ON SATURDAY.

CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES INCREASES AFTER
12Z SATURDAY FOR BLF/LWB/BCB...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
OVERHEAD TO BRING LIGHT SNOW. ROA MAY SEE PASSING FLURRIES...BUT
IT SHOULD HOLD AT VFR. LYH AND DAN SHOULD STAY VFR AND REMAIN DRY.
WINDS WILL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON SATURDAY EVENING...AND GUST UP TO 20 KT AT BLF AND BCB.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER ROUND OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL ENSUE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DURING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AS ANOTHER SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES. ROA/LYH/DAN SHOULD STAY VFR THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT CONDITIONS COULD REMAIN MVFR/IFR FOR BLF/LWB/BCB
UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT POOR FLYING WEATHER WILL TAKE PLACE
DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...BUT FURTHER UPDATES FROM THE LONGER RANGE MODELS
MAY IMPACT THE DETAILS ON PRECIPITATION TYPE AND STORM TRACK.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...PW




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 112259
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
559 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY MORNING...LIFTING
NORTHEAST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA COASTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS
YEAR. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CENTERS ~1030MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH
VALLEY. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE GULF STATES. COLD
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. WIND
CHILLS IN THE 20S UNDER A SUNNY SKY.

FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. WINDS DECOUPLE
ALLOWING FOR EXCEPTIONAL RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS EVENING AS
DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE
LATE TONIGHT AS ATTENTION TURNS TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH. HEIGHT FALLS WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SC/NC
COAST BY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL LEVEL OFF
THRU LATE TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW
20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE NC COAST FRI MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PUSHES OVER THE CAROLINAS. SHORTWAVE AND INCREASING WINDS
ALOFT WILL PROVIDE ADEQUATE UVM OVER AN AREA OF 280-285K ISENTROPIC
LIFT ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE LOW. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE
MODEST...BUT MIXING RATIOS PROGGED TO REACH 3.0 TO 4.0 G/KG. THERMAL
PROFILES INDICATE HIGH RH/ICE IN THE SNOW GROWTH LAYER ALONG WITH
ABUNDANT LIFT DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. THE NET
RESULT WILL BE INCREASING POPS THRU MID TO LATE MORNING FRI AS SNOW
SPREADS INTO THE REGION. PRECIP CONTINUES THRU THE AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW LIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. QUESTION BECOMES HOW FAR NW
THE PRECIP SPREADS FRI AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE SE
COUNTIES TO CATEGORICAL...TAPERING OFF THE CHANCE OVER THE NW
COUNTIES. WITH THE LUXURY OF COLD CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES...SNOW
IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PREDOMINATE PTYPE THRU THE DURATION OF THE
EVENT. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE LATE FRIDAY NEAREST THE ALBEMARLE SOUND
WHERE A LITTLE SLEET MAY MIX WITH THE SNOW TOWARD THE END OF THE
EVENT. HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA
WHERE BANDING FROM FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE
LOW IS INDICATED IN THE MODELS. 2-4 INCHES IS EXPECTED IN THAT
AREA...REQUIRING A WINTER STORM WARNING. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST INTO
HAMPTON ROADS AND THE LOWER PENINSULA AND EASTERN SHORE...SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF TO 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES IN EFFECT. PLEASE SEE LATEST WSW FOR MORE INFO. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS TAPER OFF TO 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH TOWARD THE TRI CITIES AND MD
ERN SHORE...THEN A DUSTING TO HALF AN INCH RICHMOND NORTH AND WEST.
SNOW COMES TO AN END FRI EVENING AS THE SFC LOW PUSHES WELL OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY PUSHES THRU THE
REGION.

CLOSED UPPER LOW/ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE POLAR VORTEX DIGS OVER
NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. ~1040MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
MIDWEST...USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. WINDY SAT WITH NW WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH (STRONGER NEAR THE COAST AND OVER THE
EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS SAT FORECAST TO WARM ONLY INTO THE MID 20S NW
TO LOW 30S SE (-2 STD DEV) UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. WIND
CHILL VALUES WILL BE IN THE TEENS...RESULTING IN A RAW/COLD/WINDY
DAY. TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS SAT NIGHT.
WINDS DECOUPLE INLAND AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION...BUT WIND
CHILLS STILL FORECAST IN THE SINGLE DIGITS INLAND TO 0 TO 8 BELOW
NRN NECK TO THE ERN SHORE. THE HIGH CENTERS OVER THE LOCAL AREA
SUNDAY WITH NLY WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. SLIGHTLY COLDER SUN WITH
DECREASED MIXING. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 20S (-2 STD DEV)
UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ATTENTION
TURNING TO A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. THERE
REMAINS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS...ALTHOUGH
THE 11/12Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING SLOWER...AND WARMER FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. THE 11/12Z GFS CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT PCPN MONDAY AS A NRN STREAM TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WOULD MAINLY FALL AS SN OR SN/IP...WITH A TRANSITION TO
RA CLOSER TO THE COAST BY AFTERNOON. SUBSTANTIAL WARMING ALOFT WOULD
GENERALLY RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO RA MONDAY NIGHT...ASIDE FROM THE
FAR NW WHERE MIXED PCPN COULD PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH AN
IN-SITU WEDGE IN PLACE. THE LATEST DATA SCOURS OUT THE WEDGE BY
AFTERNOON WITH P-TYPE BECOMING RA EVEN IN THE FAR NW. DRYING OCCURS
MIDWEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE
CLIPPING THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
OF COOLER AIR AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS MONDAY WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOW 30S ALONG
AND W OF I-95...WHILE COASTAL LOCATIONS WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOW 40S. TEMPERATURES REMAIN STEADY MONDAY EVENING AND BEGIN TO RISE
OVERNIGHT EVENTUALLY WARMING INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S...FOLLOWED BY
LOW 40S NE...TO UPPER 40S SW THURSDAY. MORNING LOWS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GUSTY WNW WNDS TO 25-30 KT CONTG...XPCD TO WANE AFT
22Z/11...BECOMING NW OR VRB 6 KT OR LESS OVRNGT. OTRW...VRF/SKC
CONTG INTO THE OVRNGT HRS.

GRADUALLY LWRG CIGS...ESP ACRS SRN VA/NE NC FRI MRNG. HI
CHC/LIKELY PROB FOR -SN AND MVFR CONDS (PRIMARILY VSBYS)...MNLY
ORF/ECG AREA MIDDAY/AFTN FRI...ENDING IN THE EVE. DRY WX W/ GUSTY
NW WINDS TO 25-35KT RETURN BY SAT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE
COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW
MONDAY AS SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS BRING A WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FORM THE NW TONIGHT AND SETTLES
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY MORNING. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH
AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...WITH SCA HEADLINES GRADUALLY
ENDING THROUGH THE EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NE FRIDAY
WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY AFTERNOON THE WIND WILL BECOME E/NE S OF
CAPE CHARLES WITH GENERALLY A S/SE DIRECTION N OF CAPE CHARLES.
SPEEDS WILL BE AOB 15KT. ADDITIONALLY...THIS LOW WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF SN...WHICH WILL REDUCE VSBY. AS THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NE
FRIDAY NIGHT A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. A NW WIND WILL AVERAGE 25-30KT WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35-40KT OVER THE OCEAN AND BAY. SEAS BUILD TO 5-
8FT WITH 4-5 FT WAVES IN THE BAY. GALE FLAGS HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY (4TH PERIOD). THESE WILL LIKELY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NRN OCEAN ZONES. FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND...WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN
CAPPED AT HIGH-END SCA AT THIS TIME. FREEZING SPRAY IS LIKELY AS
TEMPERATURES PLUMMET SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES
ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FORM THE SW EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE
BLOW-OUT TIDES SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
     FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NCZ012>014.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR NCZ015>017-030>032-102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
     FRIDAY NIGHT FOR VAZ092-093-095>098-100-523>525.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM/TMG
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...ALB/MPR
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 112259
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
559 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY MORNING...LIFTING
NORTHEAST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA COASTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS
YEAR. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CENTERS ~1030MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH
VALLEY. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE GULF STATES. COLD
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. WIND
CHILLS IN THE 20S UNDER A SUNNY SKY.

FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. WINDS DECOUPLE
ALLOWING FOR EXCEPTIONAL RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS EVENING AS
DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE
LATE TONIGHT AS ATTENTION TURNS TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH. HEIGHT FALLS WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SC/NC
COAST BY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL LEVEL OFF
THRU LATE TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW
20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE NC COAST FRI MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PUSHES OVER THE CAROLINAS. SHORTWAVE AND INCREASING WINDS
ALOFT WILL PROVIDE ADEQUATE UVM OVER AN AREA OF 280-285K ISENTROPIC
LIFT ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE LOW. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE
MODEST...BUT MIXING RATIOS PROGGED TO REACH 3.0 TO 4.0 G/KG. THERMAL
PROFILES INDICATE HIGH RH/ICE IN THE SNOW GROWTH LAYER ALONG WITH
ABUNDANT LIFT DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. THE NET
RESULT WILL BE INCREASING POPS THRU MID TO LATE MORNING FRI AS SNOW
SPREADS INTO THE REGION. PRECIP CONTINUES THRU THE AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW LIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. QUESTION BECOMES HOW FAR NW
THE PRECIP SPREADS FRI AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE SE
COUNTIES TO CATEGORICAL...TAPERING OFF THE CHANCE OVER THE NW
COUNTIES. WITH THE LUXURY OF COLD CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES...SNOW
IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PREDOMINATE PTYPE THRU THE DURATION OF THE
EVENT. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE LATE FRIDAY NEAREST THE ALBEMARLE SOUND
WHERE A LITTLE SLEET MAY MIX WITH THE SNOW TOWARD THE END OF THE
EVENT. HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA
WHERE BANDING FROM FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE
LOW IS INDICATED IN THE MODELS. 2-4 INCHES IS EXPECTED IN THAT
AREA...REQUIRING A WINTER STORM WARNING. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST INTO
HAMPTON ROADS AND THE LOWER PENINSULA AND EASTERN SHORE...SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF TO 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES IN EFFECT. PLEASE SEE LATEST WSW FOR MORE INFO. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS TAPER OFF TO 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH TOWARD THE TRI CITIES AND MD
ERN SHORE...THEN A DUSTING TO HALF AN INCH RICHMOND NORTH AND WEST.
SNOW COMES TO AN END FRI EVENING AS THE SFC LOW PUSHES WELL OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY PUSHES THRU THE
REGION.

CLOSED UPPER LOW/ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE POLAR VORTEX DIGS OVER
NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. ~1040MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
MIDWEST...USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. WINDY SAT WITH NW WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH (STRONGER NEAR THE COAST AND OVER THE
EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS SAT FORECAST TO WARM ONLY INTO THE MID 20S NW
TO LOW 30S SE (-2 STD DEV) UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. WIND
CHILL VALUES WILL BE IN THE TEENS...RESULTING IN A RAW/COLD/WINDY
DAY. TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS SAT NIGHT.
WINDS DECOUPLE INLAND AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION...BUT WIND
CHILLS STILL FORECAST IN THE SINGLE DIGITS INLAND TO 0 TO 8 BELOW
NRN NECK TO THE ERN SHORE. THE HIGH CENTERS OVER THE LOCAL AREA
SUNDAY WITH NLY WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. SLIGHTLY COLDER SUN WITH
DECREASED MIXING. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 20S (-2 STD DEV)
UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ATTENTION
TURNING TO A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. THERE
REMAINS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS...ALTHOUGH
THE 11/12Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING SLOWER...AND WARMER FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. THE 11/12Z GFS CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT PCPN MONDAY AS A NRN STREAM TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WOULD MAINLY FALL AS SN OR SN/IP...WITH A TRANSITION TO
RA CLOSER TO THE COAST BY AFTERNOON. SUBSTANTIAL WARMING ALOFT WOULD
GENERALLY RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO RA MONDAY NIGHT...ASIDE FROM THE
FAR NW WHERE MIXED PCPN COULD PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH AN
IN-SITU WEDGE IN PLACE. THE LATEST DATA SCOURS OUT THE WEDGE BY
AFTERNOON WITH P-TYPE BECOMING RA EVEN IN THE FAR NW. DRYING OCCURS
MIDWEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE
CLIPPING THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
OF COOLER AIR AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS MONDAY WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOW 30S ALONG
AND W OF I-95...WHILE COASTAL LOCATIONS WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOW 40S. TEMPERATURES REMAIN STEADY MONDAY EVENING AND BEGIN TO RISE
OVERNIGHT EVENTUALLY WARMING INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S...FOLLOWED BY
LOW 40S NE...TO UPPER 40S SW THURSDAY. MORNING LOWS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GUSTY WNW WNDS TO 25-30 KT CONTG...XPCD TO WANE AFT
22Z/11...BECOMING NW OR VRB 6 KT OR LESS OVRNGT. OTRW...VRF/SKC
CONTG INTO THE OVRNGT HRS.

GRADUALLY LWRG CIGS...ESP ACRS SRN VA/NE NC FRI MRNG. HI
CHC/LIKELY PROB FOR -SN AND MVFR CONDS (PRIMARILY VSBYS)...MNLY
ORF/ECG AREA MIDDAY/AFTN FRI...ENDING IN THE EVE. DRY WX W/ GUSTY
NW WINDS TO 25-35KT RETURN BY SAT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE
COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW
MONDAY AS SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS BRING A WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FORM THE NW TONIGHT AND SETTLES
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY MORNING. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH
AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...WITH SCA HEADLINES GRADUALLY
ENDING THROUGH THE EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NE FRIDAY
WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY AFTERNOON THE WIND WILL BECOME E/NE S OF
CAPE CHARLES WITH GENERALLY A S/SE DIRECTION N OF CAPE CHARLES.
SPEEDS WILL BE AOB 15KT. ADDITIONALLY...THIS LOW WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF SN...WHICH WILL REDUCE VSBY. AS THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NE
FRIDAY NIGHT A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. A NW WIND WILL AVERAGE 25-30KT WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35-40KT OVER THE OCEAN AND BAY. SEAS BUILD TO 5-
8FT WITH 4-5 FT WAVES IN THE BAY. GALE FLAGS HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY (4TH PERIOD). THESE WILL LIKELY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NRN OCEAN ZONES. FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND...WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN
CAPPED AT HIGH-END SCA AT THIS TIME. FREEZING SPRAY IS LIKELY AS
TEMPERATURES PLUMMET SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES
ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FORM THE SW EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE
BLOW-OUT TIDES SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
     FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NCZ012>014.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR NCZ015>017-030>032-102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
     FRIDAY NIGHT FOR VAZ092-093-095>098-100-523>525.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM/TMG
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...ALB/MPR
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 112259
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
559 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY MORNING...LIFTING
NORTHEAST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA COASTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS
YEAR. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CENTERS ~1030MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH
VALLEY. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE GULF STATES. COLD
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. WIND
CHILLS IN THE 20S UNDER A SUNNY SKY.

FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. WINDS DECOUPLE
ALLOWING FOR EXCEPTIONAL RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS EVENING AS
DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE
LATE TONIGHT AS ATTENTION TURNS TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH. HEIGHT FALLS WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SC/NC
COAST BY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL LEVEL OFF
THRU LATE TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW
20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE NC COAST FRI MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PUSHES OVER THE CAROLINAS. SHORTWAVE AND INCREASING WINDS
ALOFT WILL PROVIDE ADEQUATE UVM OVER AN AREA OF 280-285K ISENTROPIC
LIFT ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE LOW. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE
MODEST...BUT MIXING RATIOS PROGGED TO REACH 3.0 TO 4.0 G/KG. THERMAL
PROFILES INDICATE HIGH RH/ICE IN THE SNOW GROWTH LAYER ALONG WITH
ABUNDANT LIFT DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. THE NET
RESULT WILL BE INCREASING POPS THRU MID TO LATE MORNING FRI AS SNOW
SPREADS INTO THE REGION. PRECIP CONTINUES THRU THE AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW LIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. QUESTION BECOMES HOW FAR NW
THE PRECIP SPREADS FRI AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE SE
COUNTIES TO CATEGORICAL...TAPERING OFF THE CHANCE OVER THE NW
COUNTIES. WITH THE LUXURY OF COLD CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES...SNOW
IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PREDOMINATE PTYPE THRU THE DURATION OF THE
EVENT. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE LATE FRIDAY NEAREST THE ALBEMARLE SOUND
WHERE A LITTLE SLEET MAY MIX WITH THE SNOW TOWARD THE END OF THE
EVENT. HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA
WHERE BANDING FROM FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE
LOW IS INDICATED IN THE MODELS. 2-4 INCHES IS EXPECTED IN THAT
AREA...REQUIRING A WINTER STORM WARNING. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST INTO
HAMPTON ROADS AND THE LOWER PENINSULA AND EASTERN SHORE...SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF TO 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES IN EFFECT. PLEASE SEE LATEST WSW FOR MORE INFO. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS TAPER OFF TO 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH TOWARD THE TRI CITIES AND MD
ERN SHORE...THEN A DUSTING TO HALF AN INCH RICHMOND NORTH AND WEST.
SNOW COMES TO AN END FRI EVENING AS THE SFC LOW PUSHES WELL OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY PUSHES THRU THE
REGION.

CLOSED UPPER LOW/ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE POLAR VORTEX DIGS OVER
NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. ~1040MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
MIDWEST...USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. WINDY SAT WITH NW WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH (STRONGER NEAR THE COAST AND OVER THE
EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS SAT FORECAST TO WARM ONLY INTO THE MID 20S NW
TO LOW 30S SE (-2 STD DEV) UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. WIND
CHILL VALUES WILL BE IN THE TEENS...RESULTING IN A RAW/COLD/WINDY
DAY. TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS SAT NIGHT.
WINDS DECOUPLE INLAND AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION...BUT WIND
CHILLS STILL FORECAST IN THE SINGLE DIGITS INLAND TO 0 TO 8 BELOW
NRN NECK TO THE ERN SHORE. THE HIGH CENTERS OVER THE LOCAL AREA
SUNDAY WITH NLY WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. SLIGHTLY COLDER SUN WITH
DECREASED MIXING. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 20S (-2 STD DEV)
UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ATTENTION
TURNING TO A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. THERE
REMAINS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS...ALTHOUGH
THE 11/12Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING SLOWER...AND WARMER FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. THE 11/12Z GFS CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT PCPN MONDAY AS A NRN STREAM TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WOULD MAINLY FALL AS SN OR SN/IP...WITH A TRANSITION TO
RA CLOSER TO THE COAST BY AFTERNOON. SUBSTANTIAL WARMING ALOFT WOULD
GENERALLY RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO RA MONDAY NIGHT...ASIDE FROM THE
FAR NW WHERE MIXED PCPN COULD PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH AN
IN-SITU WEDGE IN PLACE. THE LATEST DATA SCOURS OUT THE WEDGE BY
AFTERNOON WITH P-TYPE BECOMING RA EVEN IN THE FAR NW. DRYING OCCURS
MIDWEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE
CLIPPING THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
OF COOLER AIR AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS MONDAY WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOW 30S ALONG
AND W OF I-95...WHILE COASTAL LOCATIONS WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOW 40S. TEMPERATURES REMAIN STEADY MONDAY EVENING AND BEGIN TO RISE
OVERNIGHT EVENTUALLY WARMING INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S...FOLLOWED BY
LOW 40S NE...TO UPPER 40S SW THURSDAY. MORNING LOWS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GUSTY WNW WNDS TO 25-30 KT CONTG...XPCD TO WANE AFT
22Z/11...BECOMING NW OR VRB 6 KT OR LESS OVRNGT. OTRW...VRF/SKC
CONTG INTO THE OVRNGT HRS.

GRADUALLY LWRG CIGS...ESP ACRS SRN VA/NE NC FRI MRNG. HI
CHC/LIKELY PROB FOR -SN AND MVFR CONDS (PRIMARILY VSBYS)...MNLY
ORF/ECG AREA MIDDAY/AFTN FRI...ENDING IN THE EVE. DRY WX W/ GUSTY
NW WINDS TO 25-35KT RETURN BY SAT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE
COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW
MONDAY AS SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS BRING A WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FORM THE NW TONIGHT AND SETTLES
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY MORNING. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH
AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...WITH SCA HEADLINES GRADUALLY
ENDING THROUGH THE EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NE FRIDAY
WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY AFTERNOON THE WIND WILL BECOME E/NE S OF
CAPE CHARLES WITH GENERALLY A S/SE DIRECTION N OF CAPE CHARLES.
SPEEDS WILL BE AOB 15KT. ADDITIONALLY...THIS LOW WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF SN...WHICH WILL REDUCE VSBY. AS THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NE
FRIDAY NIGHT A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. A NW WIND WILL AVERAGE 25-30KT WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35-40KT OVER THE OCEAN AND BAY. SEAS BUILD TO 5-
8FT WITH 4-5 FT WAVES IN THE BAY. GALE FLAGS HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY (4TH PERIOD). THESE WILL LIKELY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NRN OCEAN ZONES. FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND...WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN
CAPPED AT HIGH-END SCA AT THIS TIME. FREEZING SPRAY IS LIKELY AS
TEMPERATURES PLUMMET SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES
ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FORM THE SW EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE
BLOW-OUT TIDES SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
     FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NCZ012>014.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR NCZ015>017-030>032-102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
     FRIDAY NIGHT FOR VAZ092-093-095>098-100-523>525.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM/TMG
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...ALB/MPR
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 112102
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
402 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY MORNING...LIFTING
NORTHEAST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA COASTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS
YEAR. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CENTERS ~1030MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH
VALLEY. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE GULF STATES. COLD
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. WIND
CHILLS IN THE 20S UNDER A SUNNY SKY.

FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. WINDS DECOUPLE
ALLOWING FOR EXCEPTIONAL RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS EVENING AS
DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE
LATE TONIGHT AS ATTENTION TURNS TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH. HEIGHT FALLS WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SC/NC
COAST BY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL LEVEL OFF
THRU LATE TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW
20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE NC COAST FRI MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PUSHES OVER THE CAROLINAS. SHORTWAVE AND INCREASING WINDS
ALOFT WILL PROVIDE ADEQUATE UVM OVER AN AREA OF 280-285K ISENTROPIC
LIFT ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE LOW. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE
MODEST...BUT MIXING RATIOS PROGGED TO REACH 3.0 TO 4.0 G/KG. THERMAL
PROFILES INDICATE HIGH RH/ICE IN THE SNOW GROWTH LAYER ALONG WITH
ABUNDANT LIFT DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. THE NET
RESULT WILL BE INCREASING POPS THRU MID TO LATE MORNING FRI AS SNOW
SPREADS INTO THE REGION. PRECIP CONTINUES THRU THE AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW LIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. QUESTION BECOMES HOW FAR NW
THE PRECIP SPREADS FRI AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE SE
COUNTIES TO CATEGORICAL...TAPERING OFF THE CHANCE OVER THE NW
COUNTIES. WITH THE LUXURY OF COLD CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES...SNOW
IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PREDOMINATE PTYPE THRU THE DURATION OF THE
EVENT. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE LATE FRIDAY NEAREST THE ALBEMARLE SOUND
WHERE A LITTLE SLEET MAY MIX WITH THE SNOW TOWARD THE END OF THE
EVENT. HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA
WHERE BANDING FROM FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE
LOW IS INDICATED IN THE MODELS. 2-4 INCHES IS EXPECTED IN THAT
AREA...REQUIRING A WINTER STORM WARNING. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST INTO
HAMPTON ROADS AND THE LOWER PENINSULA AND EASTERN SHORE...SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF TO 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES IN EFFECT. PLEASE SEE LATEST WSW FOR MORE INFO. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS TAPER OFF TO 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH TOWARD THE TRI CITIES AND MD
ERN SHORE...THEN A DUSTING TO HALF AN INCH RICHMOND NORTH AND WEST.
SNOW COMES TO AN END FRI EVENING AS THE SFC LOW PUSHES WELL OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY PUSHES THRU THE
REGION.

CLOSED UPPER LOW/ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE POLAR VORTEX DIGS OVER
NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. ~1040MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
MIDWEST...USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. WINDY SAT WITH NW WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH (STRONGER NEAR THE COAST AND OVER THE
EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS SAT FORECAST TO WARM ONLY INTO THE MID 20S NW
TO LOW 30S SE (-2 STD DEV) UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. WIND
CHILL VALUES WILL BE IN THE TEENS...RESULTING IN A RAW/COLD/WINDY
DAY. TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS SAT NIGHT.
WINDS DECOUPLE INLAND AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION...BUT WIND
CHILLS STILL FORECAST IN THE SINGLE DIGITS INLAND TO 0 TO 8 BELOW
NRN NECK TO THE ERN SHORE. THE HIGH CENTERS OVER THE LOCAL AREA
SUNDAY WITH NLY WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. SLIGHTLY COLDER SUN WITH
DECREASED MIXING. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 20S (-2 STD DEV)
UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ATTENTION
TURNING TO A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. THERE
REMAINS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS...ALTHOUGH
THE 11/12Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING SLOWER...AND WARMER FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. THE 11/12Z GFS CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT PCPN MONDAY AS A NRN STREAM TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WOULD MAINLY FALL AS SN OR SN/IP...WITH A TRANSITION TO
RA CLOSER TO THE COAST BY AFTERNOON. SUBSTANTIAL WARMING ALOFT WOULD
GENERALLY RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO RA MONDAY NIGHT...ASIDE FROM THE
FAR NW WHERE MIXED PCPN COULD PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH AN
IN-SITU WEDGE IN PLACE. THE LATEST DATA SCOURS OUT THE WEDGE BY
AFTERNOON WITH P-TYPE BECOMING RA EVEN IN THE FAR NW. DRYING OCCURS
MIDWEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE
CLIPPING THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
OF COOLER AIR AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS MONDAY WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOW 30S ALONG
AND W OF I-95...WHILE COASTAL LOCATIONS WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOW 40S. TEMPERATURES REMAIN STEADY MONDAY EVENING AND BEGIN TO RISE
OVERNIGHT EVENTUALLY WARMING INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S...FOLLOWED BY
LOW 40S NE...TO UPPER 40S SW THURSDAY. MORNING LOWS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GUSTY WNW WNDS TO 25-30 KT CONTG...XPCD TO WANE AFT
22Z/11...BECOMING NW OR VRB 6 KT OR LESS OVRNGT. OTRW...VRF/SKC
CONTG INTO THE OVRNGT HRS.

GRADUALLY LWRG CIGS...ESP ACRS SRN VA/NE NC FRI MRNG. HI
CHC/LIKELY PROB FOR -SN AND MVFR CONDS (PRIMARILY VSBYS)...MNLY
ORF/ECG AREA MIDDAY/AFTN FRI...ENDING IN THE EVE. DRY WX W/ GUSTY
NW WINDS TO 25-35KT RETURN BY SAT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE
COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW
MONDAY AS SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS BRING A WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FORM THE NW TONIGHT AND SETTLES
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY MORNING. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH
AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...WITH SCA HEADLINES GRADUALLY
ENDING THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE
LIFTS TO THE NE FRIDAY WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY AFTERNOON THE WIND
WILL BECOME E/NE S OF CAPE CHARLES WITH GENERALLY A S/SE DIRECTION N
OF CAPE CHARLES. SPEEDS WILL BE AOB 15KT. ADDITIONALLY...THIS LOW
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SN...WHICH WILL REDUCE VSBY. AS THE LOW LIFTS
TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS
THE REGION WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. A NW WIND WILL AVERAGE 25-30KT WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35-40KT OVER THE OCEAN AND BAY. SEAS BUILD TO 5-
8FT WITH 4-5 FT WAVES IN THE BAY. GALE FLAGS HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY (4TH PERIOD). THESE WILL LIKELY NEED
TO BE EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN OCEAN
ZONES. FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND...WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN CAPPED AT
HIGH-END SCA AT THIS TIME. FREEZING SPRAY IS LIKELY AS TEMPERATURES
PLUMMET SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE
AREA. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FORM THE SW EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE WNW FLOW WILL ALLOW ANOMALIES TO FURTHER FALL. STRONG NW FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE BLOW-OUT TIDES
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
     FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NCZ012>014.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR NCZ015>017-030>032-102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
     FRIDAY NIGHT FOR VAZ092-093-095>098-100-523>525.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ634-650-652-
     654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>632.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM/TMG
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...ALB/MPR
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KRNK 112039
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
339 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AHEAD OF
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY
EARLY FRIDAY. THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CROSS OUR AREA ON FRIDAY
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN VERY COLD BUT OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EST THURSDAY...

BRIEF LULL IN THE ACTION WILL OCCUR EARLY TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH UNDER MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES THIS EVENING. HOWEVER LACK OF MOISTURE WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN QUICKLY DEVELOPS ALOFT LATE TONIGHT
IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT DIGGING UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE
NEXT ARCTIC SHOT. GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN
MID CLOUDS FROM THE NW BY MIDNIGHT WITH THIS CANOPY OVERSPREADING
THE REGION BY DAYBREAK. BOUNDARY LAYER APPEARS TOO DRY FOR ANY
PRECIP OTHER THAN MAYBE A FLURRY FAR WEST LATE SO KEEPING POPS OUT
UNTIL JUST BEFORE DAWN SW. TEMPS REMAIN VERY COLD AND WITH LOW
DEWPOINTS EXPECTING A QUICK DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET ESPCLY VALLEYS
AS WIND DIMINISH BEFORE THINGS STEADY OUT WITH CLOUDS ARRIVING.
THIS SUPPORTS GOING A LITTLE BELOW MOS WITH LOWS MOSTLY TEENS WITH
A FEW SINGLE DIGITS NW VALLEYS WHERE SNOW COVER PREVAILS.

FAST MOVING MID LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE CLIPPER WILL PASS TO
THE SOUTH FRIDAY WITH THE SURFACE LOW QUICKLY DEEPENING UPON REACHING
THE CAROLINA COAST. LATEST MODELS BRING A SWATH OF LIFT WITH WEAK
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING INTO THE WESTERN SLOPES FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE
UPWARD MOTION JUMPS TO THE COASTAL SYSTEM. JUST HOW FAR SNOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WESTERN SLUG OF MOISTURE MAKES IT REMAINS IFFY BUT APPEARS
MAY RUN OUT TO THE BLUE RIDGE BEFORE FADING/REDEVELOPING PIEDMONT PRIOR
TO ENDING. LATEST QPF OF AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS WESTERN
MOUNTAINS SUPPORTS AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW PER HIGH RATIOS...WITH LESS
THAN AN INCH I-81 CORRIDOR/BLUE RIDGE...AND ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS TO THE
EAST. THEREFORE UPPED POPS A BIT FAR WEST AND EXTENDED HIGHER CHANCES
EAST GIVEN FAST MOVEMENT AND POTENTIAL FOR A BAND TO SNEAK OUT ESPCLY
IF THE SHORTWAVE IS A BIT FASTER UNDER STRONG LOW LEVEL BACKED FLOW PER
THE GFS. AMOUNTS STILL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AND GIVEN TIMING OF
MOSTLY BETWEEN THE MORNING/EVENING RUSH HOURS WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW. OTRW A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN THE ONGOING FRIGID
TEMPS WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION LIKELY TO PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 30S
EAST...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE BEFORE
THE FRONT CROSSES LATE.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...

UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ONGOING FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH A LOW LEVEL JET PEAKING AROUND 50 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
MUCH DRIER AIR COMES IN BEHIND THE CLIPPER. MODELS SUGGEST ONLY
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN WESTERN GREENBRIER
COUNTY BY SATURDAY EVENING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...PRESSURE RISES AND
INVERSION HEIGHT ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE AND INTO THE
NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF
ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE MENTIONED THIS
POTENTIAL THREAT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

COLDEST AIR WITH THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE CENTER OF THE
SURFACE HIGH IS CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT THE WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG...BUT WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES...THE COMBINATION WILL STILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD BACK OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY FROM THE
WEST. LOW CONFIDENCE IN HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE TO SATURATE LOWER
LAYERS ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. NO CHANGES IN THE
ARRIVAL TIME OF THE PRECIPITATION FOR NOW.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EST THURSDAY...

A PIECE OF THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS WEDGED DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS WITH COASTAL TROFING ALSO DEVELOPING ON MONDAY. THE GFS
AND CANADIAN BRING A SURFACE LOW FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SUNDAY THEN DEEPEN THE LOW AND TRACK IT NORTHEAST TO THE CAROLINAS
BY TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS INITIALLY WEAKER WITH THE LOW THEN FASTER
TRACKING IT NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY. OF COURSE THE TRACK
OF THE LOW WILL HAVE TREMENDOUS INFLUENCE ON THE RESULTING WEATHER
FOR THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. WPC FAVORING ENSEMBLES FORECASTS IN
THIS TIME FRAME. BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS STORMS SYSTEM
AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE ON LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA STAYS COLD ENOUGH AT ALL LEVEL FOR SNOW THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THEN VERY STRONG SOUTHERLY JET BRINGS IN WARMER AIR
ABOVE THE SURFACE. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE MIXED WINTER
PRECIPITATION. WITH THE WEDGE IN PLACE...MODELS MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE
WARMING UP THE SURFACE THROUGH 850 MB LAYER MONDAY NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1145 AM EST THURSDAY...

PERIODS OF LINGERING MVFR WILL PERSIST IN THE VICINITY OF
KBLF/KLWB INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DRIER AIR CAUSES ANY
REMAINING LOW DECK TO SCATTER OUT. OTHERWISE LOOKING AT OVERALL
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
SLOWLY DIMINISHING AND BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING MID CLOUDS
LIKELY LATE THIS EVENING OVER THE FAR WEST AND ELSEWHERE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER APPEARS THAT KBLF/KLWB SHOULD REMAIN WITH VFR
CIGS OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH BASES WILL BE QUICKLY LOWERING BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INCREASING MOISTURE
WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH DURING FRIDAY REACHING THE COAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. QUICK SHOT OF DEEPER MOISTURE UNDER THE PASSING UPPER
SUPPORT LIKELY TO YIELD A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS FROM THE
NC BORDER NORTH INTO SOUTHEAST WEST VA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON FRIDAY
BEFORE ENERGY JUMPS TO THE COAST. THINK COULD SEE A QUICK BURST OF
SNOW ESPCLY AROUND KBLF WITH SOME OF THESE LOWER CIGS/VSBYS
HEADING OUT TO KBCB BEFORE MOISTURE CUTS OFF CROSSING THE BLUE
RIDGE. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW REACH KROA BUT THINKING STILL VFR
THERE AND POINTS EAST WHERE WILL KEEP THINGS VFR/DRY THROUGH THE
VALID TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

NEXT ROUND OF NW FLOW KICKS IN BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE BY FRIDAY
EVENING WITH UPSLOPE BRINGING MVFR/IFR CIGS TO KBLF/KLWB INTO SAT
MORNING...BEFORE GOING VFR AGAIN BY LATE SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY AGAIN WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR POURING IN SATURDAY.

SHOULD BE VFR SUNDAY THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM SEEMS POISED TO BRING
WINTRY WX TO THE AREA AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SUB-VFR
EXPECTED REGION WIDE MONDAY INTO AT LEAST PART OF TUESDAY. TRACK
OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE PTYPE AND WHERE OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST...BUT FOR OUR AREA SOME WINTRY PRECIP
LOOKS LIKELY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/MBS
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/MBS/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 112039
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
339 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AHEAD OF
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY
EARLY FRIDAY. THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CROSS OUR AREA ON FRIDAY
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN VERY COLD BUT OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EST THURSDAY...

BRIEF LULL IN THE ACTION WILL OCCUR EARLY TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH UNDER MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES THIS EVENING. HOWEVER LACK OF MOISTURE WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN QUICKLY DEVELOPS ALOFT LATE TONIGHT
IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT DIGGING UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE
NEXT ARCTIC SHOT. GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN
MID CLOUDS FROM THE NW BY MIDNIGHT WITH THIS CANOPY OVERSPREADING
THE REGION BY DAYBREAK. BOUNDARY LAYER APPEARS TOO DRY FOR ANY
PRECIP OTHER THAN MAYBE A FLURRY FAR WEST LATE SO KEEPING POPS OUT
UNTIL JUST BEFORE DAWN SW. TEMPS REMAIN VERY COLD AND WITH LOW
DEWPOINTS EXPECTING A QUICK DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET ESPCLY VALLEYS
AS WIND DIMINISH BEFORE THINGS STEADY OUT WITH CLOUDS ARRIVING.
THIS SUPPORTS GOING A LITTLE BELOW MOS WITH LOWS MOSTLY TEENS WITH
A FEW SINGLE DIGITS NW VALLEYS WHERE SNOW COVER PREVAILS.

FAST MOVING MID LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE CLIPPER WILL PASS TO
THE SOUTH FRIDAY WITH THE SURFACE LOW QUICKLY DEEPENING UPON REACHING
THE CAROLINA COAST. LATEST MODELS BRING A SWATH OF LIFT WITH WEAK
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING INTO THE WESTERN SLOPES FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE
UPWARD MOTION JUMPS TO THE COASTAL SYSTEM. JUST HOW FAR SNOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WESTERN SLUG OF MOISTURE MAKES IT REMAINS IFFY BUT APPEARS
MAY RUN OUT TO THE BLUE RIDGE BEFORE FADING/REDEVELOPING PIEDMONT PRIOR
TO ENDING. LATEST QPF OF AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS WESTERN
MOUNTAINS SUPPORTS AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW PER HIGH RATIOS...WITH LESS
THAN AN INCH I-81 CORRIDOR/BLUE RIDGE...AND ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS TO THE
EAST. THEREFORE UPPED POPS A BIT FAR WEST AND EXTENDED HIGHER CHANCES
EAST GIVEN FAST MOVEMENT AND POTENTIAL FOR A BAND TO SNEAK OUT ESPCLY
IF THE SHORTWAVE IS A BIT FASTER UNDER STRONG LOW LEVEL BACKED FLOW PER
THE GFS. AMOUNTS STILL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AND GIVEN TIMING OF
MOSTLY BETWEEN THE MORNING/EVENING RUSH HOURS WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW. OTRW A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN THE ONGOING FRIGID
TEMPS WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION LIKELY TO PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 30S
EAST...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE BEFORE
THE FRONT CROSSES LATE.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...

UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ONGOING FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH A LOW LEVEL JET PEAKING AROUND 50 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
MUCH DRIER AIR COMES IN BEHIND THE CLIPPER. MODELS SUGGEST ONLY
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN WESTERN GREENBRIER
COUNTY BY SATURDAY EVENING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...PRESSURE RISES AND
INVERSION HEIGHT ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE AND INTO THE
NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF
ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE MENTIONED THIS
POTENTIAL THREAT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

COLDEST AIR WITH THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE CENTER OF THE
SURFACE HIGH IS CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT THE WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG...BUT WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES...THE COMBINATION WILL STILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD BACK OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY FROM THE
WEST. LOW CONFIDENCE IN HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE TO SATURATE LOWER
LAYERS ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. NO CHANGES IN THE
ARRIVAL TIME OF THE PRECIPITATION FOR NOW.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EST THURSDAY...

A PIECE OF THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS WEDGED DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS WITH COASTAL TROFING ALSO DEVELOPING ON MONDAY. THE GFS
AND CANADIAN BRING A SURFACE LOW FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SUNDAY THEN DEEPEN THE LOW AND TRACK IT NORTHEAST TO THE CAROLINAS
BY TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS INITIALLY WEAKER WITH THE LOW THEN FASTER
TRACKING IT NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY. OF COURSE THE TRACK
OF THE LOW WILL HAVE TREMENDOUS INFLUENCE ON THE RESULTING WEATHER
FOR THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. WPC FAVORING ENSEMBLES FORECASTS IN
THIS TIME FRAME. BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS STORMS SYSTEM
AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE ON LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA STAYS COLD ENOUGH AT ALL LEVEL FOR SNOW THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THEN VERY STRONG SOUTHERLY JET BRINGS IN WARMER AIR
ABOVE THE SURFACE. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE MIXED WINTER
PRECIPITATION. WITH THE WEDGE IN PLACE...MODELS MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE
WARMING UP THE SURFACE THROUGH 850 MB LAYER MONDAY NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1145 AM EST THURSDAY...

PERIODS OF LINGERING MVFR WILL PERSIST IN THE VICINITY OF
KBLF/KLWB INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DRIER AIR CAUSES ANY
REMAINING LOW DECK TO SCATTER OUT. OTHERWISE LOOKING AT OVERALL
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
SLOWLY DIMINISHING AND BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING MID CLOUDS
LIKELY LATE THIS EVENING OVER THE FAR WEST AND ELSEWHERE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER APPEARS THAT KBLF/KLWB SHOULD REMAIN WITH VFR
CIGS OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH BASES WILL BE QUICKLY LOWERING BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INCREASING MOISTURE
WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH DURING FRIDAY REACHING THE COAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. QUICK SHOT OF DEEPER MOISTURE UNDER THE PASSING UPPER
SUPPORT LIKELY TO YIELD A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS FROM THE
NC BORDER NORTH INTO SOUTHEAST WEST VA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON FRIDAY
BEFORE ENERGY JUMPS TO THE COAST. THINK COULD SEE A QUICK BURST OF
SNOW ESPCLY AROUND KBLF WITH SOME OF THESE LOWER CIGS/VSBYS
HEADING OUT TO KBCB BEFORE MOISTURE CUTS OFF CROSSING THE BLUE
RIDGE. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW REACH KROA BUT THINKING STILL VFR
THERE AND POINTS EAST WHERE WILL KEEP THINGS VFR/DRY THROUGH THE
VALID TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

NEXT ROUND OF NW FLOW KICKS IN BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE BY FRIDAY
EVENING WITH UPSLOPE BRINGING MVFR/IFR CIGS TO KBLF/KLWB INTO SAT
MORNING...BEFORE GOING VFR AGAIN BY LATE SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY AGAIN WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR POURING IN SATURDAY.

SHOULD BE VFR SUNDAY THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM SEEMS POISED TO BRING
WINTRY WX TO THE AREA AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SUB-VFR
EXPECTED REGION WIDE MONDAY INTO AT LEAST PART OF TUESDAY. TRACK
OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE PTYPE AND WHERE OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST...BUT FOR OUR AREA SOME WINTRY PRECIP
LOOKS LIKELY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/MBS
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/MBS/WP



000
FXUS61 KLWX 112021
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
321 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE
MAY IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE POISED OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
MID-ATLANTIC STILL REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW WITH LONG-WAVE TROUGH
OVER EASTERN N AMERICA. HOWEVER HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISING AND BL
MOISTURE THINNING AS EVIDENT IN RECENT VIS SATELLITE. THREAT FOR
FLURRIES AND ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MD WILL CONTINUE TO
WANE. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AS THE HIGH BUILDS.

THE HIGH SLIPS TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT. ANY UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
QUICKLY COME TO AN END THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE JUST A COLD NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS. WIND CHILLS WILL BE LESS
OF A CONCERN WITH THE LIGHTER WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SLIDES OFFSHORE EARLY FRIDAY WITH RETURN
FLOW BRINGING SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES (BUT STILL ON EITHER SIDE
OF FREEZING)...AS WELL AS INCREASING CLOUDS/MOISTURE. ONE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE ANOTHER TAKES SHAPE NEAR THE
CAROLINA COAST IN RESPONSE TO A SOUTHERN VORT MAX. MAJORITY OF
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE COASTAL LOW EFFECTS TO OUR SOUTHEAST...BUT DID
INTRODUCE LOW END POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN MD.

THE MORE IMPORTANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR OUR AREA WILL BE A PAIR OF
BOUNDARIES TRAILING THE NORTHERN LOW CENTER. INCREASING SIGNAL IN
MODEL GUIDANCE OF A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
FIRST BOUNDARY AND HAVE THUS INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AVAILABLE. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND
COVERAGE...BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THESE SNOW SHOWERS TO REACH
THE METRO AREA DURING PORTIONS OF EVENING RUSH HOUR. WITH THE
ANTECEDENT COLD CONDITIONS...ANY SNOW WOULD STICK ON UNTREATED
ROADS. CERTAINLY A SITUATION TO PAY ATTENTION TO.

THIS WILL ALSO MARK THE BEGINNING OF A PERIOD OF UPSLOPE
SNOW...HEAVIEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...BUT LASTING THROUGH
SATURDAY. WINTER WX ADVISORY POSSIBLE AS SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
EXPECTED.

SECOND BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND MARK THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDEST AIRMASS. EVEN THOUGH CHANCES DECREASE A
BIT...SOME SNOW SHOWERS COULD STILL MAKE IT ACROSS ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS IN
MOST AREA AND WINDS INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH
BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS MAY NECESSITATE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST OF THE STRETCH WITH 850
MB TEMPS BELOW -20C AND STIFF WINDS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY BE
IN THE TEENS AND 20S WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS...AND BELOW ZERO IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. WIND GUSTS OF AT
LEAST 30-40 MPH WILL OCCUR SATURDAY...AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE WINDS WILL ONLY DIMINISH SLIGHTLY SATURDAY
NIGHT. WIND CHILLS MAY FAIL TO RISE ABOVE +10F ON SATURDAY IN MUCH
OF THE AREA...AND FALL BELOW ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILL
ADVISORY CRITERIA (-5F) WILL LIKELY BE MET OVER MOST OF THE
AREA...AND WIND CHILL WARNINGS (-25F) ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
ALLEGHENIES.

OTHER ISSUE FOR SATURDAY WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
AND STREAMERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA. SNSQ PARAMETER
IN THE NAM AND GFS...AND EVEN 12Z GFS QPF OUTPUT...PLACE THE FAVORED
AREA ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MD INCLUDING BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A PRETTY QUICK EROSION OF AN
IMPRESSIVELY COLD AIRMASS BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. NORMALLY THIS TYPE OF QUICK EROSION WOULD FORCE SOME KIND OF
PRECIPITATION...AND AS SUCH A LOT OF THE GUIDANCE IS TRYING TO BRING
SOME PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL FORCE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...WHICH WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEAST NEAR OR OVER THE
AREA. GUIDANCE DIVERGES GREATLY ON SURFACE LOW TRACK AND HOW MUCH
COLD AIR IS LEFT IN PLACE. BEST CHANCE FOR PROLONGED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. EAST OF
THERE PRECIPITATION MAY VERY WELL CHANGE TO RAIN BY TUESDAY. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
AMOUNTS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

AN ACTIVE PATTERN MAY PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK BUT
DETAILS ARE FUZZY GIVEN THE UNCERTAIN EVOLUTION OF THE EARLY WEEK
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PRIMARY ISSUE AFFECTING THE TERMINAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE
WIND. WNW GUSTS UP TO 30 KT WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND
ANY LINGERING CIGS AT 050-060 WILL DISSIPATE. VFR THROUGH THE BULK
OF FRIDAY WITH LIGHT SW WINDS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SNOW SHOWERS
AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
NOT HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT IN THE EXTENDED TAFS NOW...BUT
THESE COULD CAUSE BRIEF IMPACTS.

WINDS INCREASE SHARPLY BEHIND FRONT...WITH NW GUSTS 25-35 KT
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY AND ONLY GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SATURDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A LINGERING THREAT OF ISOLD/SCT SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY BWI/MTN.

SUB-VFR PSBL SUN NGT INTO MON IF PRECIP DEVELOPS. WINDS
LIGHT SUN NGT BCMNG GNLY ELY MON.

&&

.MARINE...
W/NW WINDS CONTINUING TO GUST TO 30 KT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BUT
QUICKLY DROPPING OFF THIS EVENING. THE SCA OVER THE BAY MAY BE ABLE
TO BE CANCELED EARLY AS WINDS ARE FORECAST TO LIGHTEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SW FLOW TO START FRIDAY BUT THAT WILL QUICKLY CHANGE
DURING THE EVENING AS ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH CHANCE FOR
SNOW SHOWERS. W/NW WINDS WILL INCREASE IMMEDIATELY AND WILL BE
ISSUING SCA. THIS MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING...BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH IN THAT OCCURRING UNTIL AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.
GALES THEN APPEAR LIKELY SATURDAY AND A PORTION OF SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE STRONG WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A FREEZING SPRAY THREAT.

WINDS DROP BELOW GALE RELATIVELY QUICKLY SUNDAY...AND
REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADS
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...ADS/DFH
MARINE...ADS/DFH




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 111757
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1257 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA TODAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST FRIDAY MORNING...THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
AND VIRGINIA COASTS AND OUT TO SEA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS BROAD/ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS THIS MORNING. ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEVELOPING WINTER STORM FOR FRI IS CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. AT THE SFC...~1030MB HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST...RIDGING SEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
VERY DRY WITH PWATS AOB 0.2 INCHES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO AROUND 0 DEGREES. SHEAR AXIS OVER THE REGION HAS RESULTED
IN LITTLE MORE THAN MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE ERN SHORE. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY UNDER A SUNNY SKY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OH VALLEY. MAIN IMPACT TODAY WILL BE COLD
TEMPS...WITH HIGHS ONLY FORECAST IN THE LOW 30S NW TO UPPER 30S SE.
BREEZY WITH NW WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH
ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE ERN SHORE. AS A RESULT...WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HI PRES WILL BLD OVR THE REGION TNGT INTO EARLY FRI MORNG...AS
UPR LVL ENERGY DIGS ESE FM THE UPR MIDWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND
THE CAROLINAS. DRY/COLD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TNGT INTO AT LEAST
EARLY FRI MORNG. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WEAK SFC LO PRES ALONG THE SE CST FRI MORNG...WHICH THEN TRACKS
ENE OUT TO SEA FRI AFTN/NGT. 00Z/11 ECMWF REMAINS THE MODEL THAT
KEEPS DEEPEST MOISTURE WITH THAT SYSTEM S OF THE FA. BUT...WILL
CONTINUE TO BLEND THE 00Z/11 NAM/GFS AND CURRENT FCST...WHICH HAS
A PERIOD OF LGT SNOW POSSIBLE ACRS FAR SRN AND SE PORTIONS OF VA
AND ACRS NE NC (STARTING BETWEEN 15-18Z/12). MODEL SOUNDINGS
QUITE DRY BLO 5KFT AND EXPECTING SNOW RATIOS UPWARDS OF 15:1. QPF
ATTM AOB .10" ON AVERAGE. SOME SCT -SN WILL BE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE...AS THE TROF ALOFT SHARPENS INTO THE REGION FM THE
WNW. POPS WILL RANGE FM 40-60% SE...TO 15-25% ELSEWHERE. SNOW
ACCUMS AT THIS TIME ARE FCST TO BE AN INCH OR LESS...WITH THE ONE
INCH AMT CLOSER TO THE ALBEMARLE SND. DUE TO CLOUDS AND A COLD
START...EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE LWR TO MID 30S.

VRBL CLUODS/POSSIBLE ISLTD -SNSH FRI EVENG...THEN STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE FA LATE FRI NGT/SAT MORNG...USHERING IN ADDITIONAL
ARCTIC AIR. POTENTIAL FOR BAY/OCEAN INDUCED SNSH...OTHERWISE
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SAT WITH GUSTY NW WINDS (TO 25-30
MPH). HI TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 20S NW TO 30-35F ELSEWHERE
(WIND CHILLS AVERAGING IN THE TEENS TO LWR 20S).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG CAA WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT...AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. 850MB TEMPERATURES PLUMMET TO AROUND -20 TO
- 22C ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIRMASS SO
FAR THIS WINTER...AND IT WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE
2015- 16 WINTER LOCALLY BASED ON THE FACT THAT IT WILL BE MID-
FEBRUARY AND THE 8-14 DAY CPC OUTLOOK INDICATES ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATER PORTION OF THE MONTH. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
WITH MID TEENS SE. A NW WIND (STRONGEST E) WILL DROP WIND CHILLS
BELOW 0F FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST
WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY. THE HIGH BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
LOW 20S NE...TO MID/UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY
SKY...ALTHOUGH BAY STREAMERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ATTENTION
TURNING TO A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. THERE
IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS. HOWEVER...A
TROUGH DOES DIG ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE COLD
AIR WILL SHALLOW AND RETREAT DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT WILL LIKELY
BE STUBBORN TO RETREAT TOO FAST. THE AMOUNT OF WINTRY PCPN WILL
DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK...WITH THE 10/12Z GFS/CMC SHOWING A
COLDER MORE SRN AND OFFSHORE TRACK...WITH TH3 10/12Z ECMWF
DEPICTING AN INLAND AND WARMER TRACK. DRYING OCCURS MIDWEEK IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE CLIPPING THE
AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GUSTY WNW WNDS TO 25-30 KT CONTG...XPCD TO WANE AFT
22Z/11...BECOMING NW OR VRB 6 KT OR LESS OVRNGT. OTRW...VRF/SKC
CONTG INTO THE OVRNGT HRS.

GRADUALLY LWRG CIGS...ESP ACRS SRN VA/NE NC FRI MRNG. HI
CHC/LIKELY PROB FOR -SN AND MVFR CONDS (PRIMARILY VSBYS)...MNLY
ORF/ECG AREA MIDDAY/AFTN FRI...ENDING IN THE EVE. DRY WX W/ GUSTY
NW WINDS TO 25-35KT RETURN BY SAT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE
COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW
MONDAY AS SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS BRING A WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
STRNG SCA`S REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA DUE TO
MODEST CAA FROM A TIGHT PRS GRDNT BTWN DEPARTING S/W AND BLDG SFC
HIGH TO THE W. CAPPED WIND GUSTS AT 30 KTS. ADDED LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY OVER THE CHES BAY AND COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING GIVEN TMPS
AOB 30 DEGREES COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS. SEAS 4-5 FT GIVEN THE
OFFSHORE FLOW...HIGHEST OUT NR 20 NM. WNDS / WAVES / SEAS DMNSH THIS
EVE SO HAVE HEADLINES ENDG BTWN 23-06Z.

HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE FRI AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD BRING SOME REDUCED
VSBY IN SN FOR THE SRN COASTAL ZONES.

A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT THEN CROSSES THE COAST SATURDAY...WITH
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. STRONG
CAA IS EXPECTED WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE NE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NW. GALE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY (GUSTS BTWN 35-40 KTS)...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE BAY AND OCEAN. ADDED FREEZING SPRAY SAT NIGHT TO THE CHES
BAY AND CSTL WTRS AS TMPS FCSTD TO PLUMMENT THRU THE 20S AND INTO
THE TEENS. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNING FOR THE NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE
LEVEL FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE LAST NITE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE WNW FLOW WILL ALLOW ANOMALIES TO FURTHER FALL. STRONG NW FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE BLOW-OUT TIDES
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ634-650-652-
     654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>632.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...ALB/MPR
MARINE...MPR
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 111757
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1257 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA TODAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST FRIDAY MORNING...THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
AND VIRGINIA COASTS AND OUT TO SEA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS BROAD/ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS THIS MORNING. ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEVELOPING WINTER STORM FOR FRI IS CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. AT THE SFC...~1030MB HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST...RIDGING SEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
VERY DRY WITH PWATS AOB 0.2 INCHES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO AROUND 0 DEGREES. SHEAR AXIS OVER THE REGION HAS RESULTED
IN LITTLE MORE THAN MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE ERN SHORE. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY UNDER A SUNNY SKY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OH VALLEY. MAIN IMPACT TODAY WILL BE COLD
TEMPS...WITH HIGHS ONLY FORECAST IN THE LOW 30S NW TO UPPER 30S SE.
BREEZY WITH NW WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH
ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE ERN SHORE. AS A RESULT...WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HI PRES WILL BLD OVR THE REGION TNGT INTO EARLY FRI MORNG...AS
UPR LVL ENERGY DIGS ESE FM THE UPR MIDWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND
THE CAROLINAS. DRY/COLD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TNGT INTO AT LEAST
EARLY FRI MORNG. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WEAK SFC LO PRES ALONG THE SE CST FRI MORNG...WHICH THEN TRACKS
ENE OUT TO SEA FRI AFTN/NGT. 00Z/11 ECMWF REMAINS THE MODEL THAT
KEEPS DEEPEST MOISTURE WITH THAT SYSTEM S OF THE FA. BUT...WILL
CONTINUE TO BLEND THE 00Z/11 NAM/GFS AND CURRENT FCST...WHICH HAS
A PERIOD OF LGT SNOW POSSIBLE ACRS FAR SRN AND SE PORTIONS OF VA
AND ACRS NE NC (STARTING BETWEEN 15-18Z/12). MODEL SOUNDINGS
QUITE DRY BLO 5KFT AND EXPECTING SNOW RATIOS UPWARDS OF 15:1. QPF
ATTM AOB .10" ON AVERAGE. SOME SCT -SN WILL BE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE...AS THE TROF ALOFT SHARPENS INTO THE REGION FM THE
WNW. POPS WILL RANGE FM 40-60% SE...TO 15-25% ELSEWHERE. SNOW
ACCUMS AT THIS TIME ARE FCST TO BE AN INCH OR LESS...WITH THE ONE
INCH AMT CLOSER TO THE ALBEMARLE SND. DUE TO CLOUDS AND A COLD
START...EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE LWR TO MID 30S.

VRBL CLUODS/POSSIBLE ISLTD -SNSH FRI EVENG...THEN STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE FA LATE FRI NGT/SAT MORNG...USHERING IN ADDITIONAL
ARCTIC AIR. POTENTIAL FOR BAY/OCEAN INDUCED SNSH...OTHERWISE
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SAT WITH GUSTY NW WINDS (TO 25-30
MPH). HI TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 20S NW TO 30-35F ELSEWHERE
(WIND CHILLS AVERAGING IN THE TEENS TO LWR 20S).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG CAA WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT...AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. 850MB TEMPERATURES PLUMMET TO AROUND -20 TO
- 22C ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIRMASS SO
FAR THIS WINTER...AND IT WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE
2015- 16 WINTER LOCALLY BASED ON THE FACT THAT IT WILL BE MID-
FEBRUARY AND THE 8-14 DAY CPC OUTLOOK INDICATES ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATER PORTION OF THE MONTH. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
WITH MID TEENS SE. A NW WIND (STRONGEST E) WILL DROP WIND CHILLS
BELOW 0F FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST
WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY. THE HIGH BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
LOW 20S NE...TO MID/UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY
SKY...ALTHOUGH BAY STREAMERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ATTENTION
TURNING TO A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. THERE
IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS. HOWEVER...A
TROUGH DOES DIG ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE COLD
AIR WILL SHALLOW AND RETREAT DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT WILL LIKELY
BE STUBBORN TO RETREAT TOO FAST. THE AMOUNT OF WINTRY PCPN WILL
DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK...WITH THE 10/12Z GFS/CMC SHOWING A
COLDER MORE SRN AND OFFSHORE TRACK...WITH TH3 10/12Z ECMWF
DEPICTING AN INLAND AND WARMER TRACK. DRYING OCCURS MIDWEEK IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE CLIPPING THE
AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GUSTY WNW WNDS TO 25-30 KT CONTG...XPCD TO WANE AFT
22Z/11...BECOMING NW OR VRB 6 KT OR LESS OVRNGT. OTRW...VRF/SKC
CONTG INTO THE OVRNGT HRS.

GRADUALLY LWRG CIGS...ESP ACRS SRN VA/NE NC FRI MRNG. HI
CHC/LIKELY PROB FOR -SN AND MVFR CONDS (PRIMARILY VSBYS)...MNLY
ORF/ECG AREA MIDDAY/AFTN FRI...ENDING IN THE EVE. DRY WX W/ GUSTY
NW WINDS TO 25-35KT RETURN BY SAT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE
COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW
MONDAY AS SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS BRING A WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
STRNG SCA`S REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA DUE TO
MODEST CAA FROM A TIGHT PRS GRDNT BTWN DEPARTING S/W AND BLDG SFC
HIGH TO THE W. CAPPED WIND GUSTS AT 30 KTS. ADDED LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY OVER THE CHES BAY AND COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING GIVEN TMPS
AOB 30 DEGREES COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS. SEAS 4-5 FT GIVEN THE
OFFSHORE FLOW...HIGHEST OUT NR 20 NM. WNDS / WAVES / SEAS DMNSH THIS
EVE SO HAVE HEADLINES ENDG BTWN 23-06Z.

HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE FRI AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD BRING SOME REDUCED
VSBY IN SN FOR THE SRN COASTAL ZONES.

A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT THEN CROSSES THE COAST SATURDAY...WITH
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. STRONG
CAA IS EXPECTED WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE NE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NW. GALE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY (GUSTS BTWN 35-40 KTS)...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE BAY AND OCEAN. ADDED FREEZING SPRAY SAT NIGHT TO THE CHES
BAY AND CSTL WTRS AS TMPS FCSTD TO PLUMMENT THRU THE 20S AND INTO
THE TEENS. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNING FOR THE NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE
LEVEL FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE LAST NITE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE WNW FLOW WILL ALLOW ANOMALIES TO FURTHER FALL. STRONG NW FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE BLOW-OUT TIDES
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ634-650-652-
     654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>632.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...ALB/MPR
MARINE...MPR
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 111757
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1257 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA TODAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST FRIDAY MORNING...THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
AND VIRGINIA COASTS AND OUT TO SEA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS BROAD/ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS THIS MORNING. ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEVELOPING WINTER STORM FOR FRI IS CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. AT THE SFC...~1030MB HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST...RIDGING SEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
VERY DRY WITH PWATS AOB 0.2 INCHES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO AROUND 0 DEGREES. SHEAR AXIS OVER THE REGION HAS RESULTED
IN LITTLE MORE THAN MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE ERN SHORE. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY UNDER A SUNNY SKY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OH VALLEY. MAIN IMPACT TODAY WILL BE COLD
TEMPS...WITH HIGHS ONLY FORECAST IN THE LOW 30S NW TO UPPER 30S SE.
BREEZY WITH NW WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH
ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE ERN SHORE. AS A RESULT...WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HI PRES WILL BLD OVR THE REGION TNGT INTO EARLY FRI MORNG...AS
UPR LVL ENERGY DIGS ESE FM THE UPR MIDWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND
THE CAROLINAS. DRY/COLD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TNGT INTO AT LEAST
EARLY FRI MORNG. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WEAK SFC LO PRES ALONG THE SE CST FRI MORNG...WHICH THEN TRACKS
ENE OUT TO SEA FRI AFTN/NGT. 00Z/11 ECMWF REMAINS THE MODEL THAT
KEEPS DEEPEST MOISTURE WITH THAT SYSTEM S OF THE FA. BUT...WILL
CONTINUE TO BLEND THE 00Z/11 NAM/GFS AND CURRENT FCST...WHICH HAS
A PERIOD OF LGT SNOW POSSIBLE ACRS FAR SRN AND SE PORTIONS OF VA
AND ACRS NE NC (STARTING BETWEEN 15-18Z/12). MODEL SOUNDINGS
QUITE DRY BLO 5KFT AND EXPECTING SNOW RATIOS UPWARDS OF 15:1. QPF
ATTM AOB .10" ON AVERAGE. SOME SCT -SN WILL BE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE...AS THE TROF ALOFT SHARPENS INTO THE REGION FM THE
WNW. POPS WILL RANGE FM 40-60% SE...TO 15-25% ELSEWHERE. SNOW
ACCUMS AT THIS TIME ARE FCST TO BE AN INCH OR LESS...WITH THE ONE
INCH AMT CLOSER TO THE ALBEMARLE SND. DUE TO CLOUDS AND A COLD
START...EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE LWR TO MID 30S.

VRBL CLUODS/POSSIBLE ISLTD -SNSH FRI EVENG...THEN STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE FA LATE FRI NGT/SAT MORNG...USHERING IN ADDITIONAL
ARCTIC AIR. POTENTIAL FOR BAY/OCEAN INDUCED SNSH...OTHERWISE
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SAT WITH GUSTY NW WINDS (TO 25-30
MPH). HI TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 20S NW TO 30-35F ELSEWHERE
(WIND CHILLS AVERAGING IN THE TEENS TO LWR 20S).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG CAA WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT...AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. 850MB TEMPERATURES PLUMMET TO AROUND -20 TO
- 22C ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIRMASS SO
FAR THIS WINTER...AND IT WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE
2015- 16 WINTER LOCALLY BASED ON THE FACT THAT IT WILL BE MID-
FEBRUARY AND THE 8-14 DAY CPC OUTLOOK INDICATES ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATER PORTION OF THE MONTH. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
WITH MID TEENS SE. A NW WIND (STRONGEST E) WILL DROP WIND CHILLS
BELOW 0F FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST
WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY. THE HIGH BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
LOW 20S NE...TO MID/UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY
SKY...ALTHOUGH BAY STREAMERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ATTENTION
TURNING TO A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. THERE
IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS. HOWEVER...A
TROUGH DOES DIG ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE COLD
AIR WILL SHALLOW AND RETREAT DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT WILL LIKELY
BE STUBBORN TO RETREAT TOO FAST. THE AMOUNT OF WINTRY PCPN WILL
DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK...WITH THE 10/12Z GFS/CMC SHOWING A
COLDER MORE SRN AND OFFSHORE TRACK...WITH TH3 10/12Z ECMWF
DEPICTING AN INLAND AND WARMER TRACK. DRYING OCCURS MIDWEEK IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE CLIPPING THE
AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GUSTY WNW WNDS TO 25-30 KT CONTG...XPCD TO WANE AFT
22Z/11...BECOMING NW OR VRB 6 KT OR LESS OVRNGT. OTRW...VRF/SKC
CONTG INTO THE OVRNGT HRS.

GRADUALLY LWRG CIGS...ESP ACRS SRN VA/NE NC FRI MRNG. HI
CHC/LIKELY PROB FOR -SN AND MVFR CONDS (PRIMARILY VSBYS)...MNLY
ORF/ECG AREA MIDDAY/AFTN FRI...ENDING IN THE EVE. DRY WX W/ GUSTY
NW WINDS TO 25-35KT RETURN BY SAT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE
COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW
MONDAY AS SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS BRING A WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
STRNG SCA`S REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA DUE TO
MODEST CAA FROM A TIGHT PRS GRDNT BTWN DEPARTING S/W AND BLDG SFC
HIGH TO THE W. CAPPED WIND GUSTS AT 30 KTS. ADDED LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY OVER THE CHES BAY AND COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING GIVEN TMPS
AOB 30 DEGREES COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS. SEAS 4-5 FT GIVEN THE
OFFSHORE FLOW...HIGHEST OUT NR 20 NM. WNDS / WAVES / SEAS DMNSH THIS
EVE SO HAVE HEADLINES ENDG BTWN 23-06Z.

HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE FRI AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD BRING SOME REDUCED
VSBY IN SN FOR THE SRN COASTAL ZONES.

A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT THEN CROSSES THE COAST SATURDAY...WITH
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. STRONG
CAA IS EXPECTED WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE NE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NW. GALE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY (GUSTS BTWN 35-40 KTS)...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE BAY AND OCEAN. ADDED FREEZING SPRAY SAT NIGHT TO THE CHES
BAY AND CSTL WTRS AS TMPS FCSTD TO PLUMMENT THRU THE 20S AND INTO
THE TEENS. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNING FOR THE NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE
LEVEL FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE LAST NITE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE WNW FLOW WILL ALLOW ANOMALIES TO FURTHER FALL. STRONG NW FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE BLOW-OUT TIDES
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ634-650-652-
     654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>632.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...ALB/MPR
MARINE...MPR
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KRNK 111657
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1157 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR DRIER WEATHER ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CROSS OUR REGION ON FRIDAY WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. GENERALLY QUIET
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND WITH MORE SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE ALONG THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM EST THURSDAY...

UPDATED TO LET THE GOING HEADLINES EXPIRE WITH ONLY FAR WESTERN
GREENBRIER COUNTY LIKELY TO SEE ADDED SNOWFALL INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...WHILE WIND CHILLS SLOWLY RECOVER AS TEMPS EDGE UP AND
WINDS DIMINISH WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. HOWEVER WILL STILL
BE COLD WITH CHILLS OVER THE MOUNTAINS STAYING IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS...WITH SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS PERSISTING
BELOW ZERO ALTHOUGH TOO ISOLATED TO KEEP A HEADLINE GOING. WILL
ALSO LIKELY COVER THE LINGERING SNOW WITH A SPS UNTIL DRIER AIR
FINALLY WINS OUT AS SEEN OFF LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AND
LATEST VISIBLE PICS. OTHERWISE LOWERED HIGHS SLIGHTLY OVER THE
WEST BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND ONLY SLOW RECOVERY AT 85H THIS
AFTERNOON DESPITE INCREASING INSOLATION. EXPECT AREAS EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE TO SEE A LITTLE BUMP GIVEN DOWNSLOPE BUT MOSTLY LOW/MID
30S OUT TO THE PIEDMONT. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD PERSIST INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE SURFACE HIGH FINALLY NOSES EAST AND THE LOW
LEVEL JET FADES AS DEEP COLD ADVECTION STARTS TO BRIEFLY WANE.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 430 AM EST THURSDAY...

COLD NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO LOCATIONS
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...ESPECIALLY THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS...THROUGH THIS MORNING. THANKFULLY SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL
START TO WANE AS THE UPPER TROF FINALLY PULLS THROUGH THE REGION AND
ALLOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FROM THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
SNOW SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF TO LINGERING FLURRIES BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
CURRENT WATCH/WARNING SITUATION IS COMPLICATED AS THERE LOOKS TO BE ONE
LAST BURST OF SNOW RIGHT AROUND 12Z THAT MAY BRING AN ADDITIONAL INCH
OR SO TO THE WARNING AREAS AND POSSIBLY A LOCALIZED LIGHT ACCUMULATION
IN A SNOWBANK EAST TO THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH THIS IN MIND IT APPEARS THE
BEST COURSE OF ACTION WILL BE TO CONTINUE THE WARNINGS UNTIL THEY
EXPIRE AT 7AM AND FOLLOW THEM WITH AN ADVISORY THROUGH 10AM. IT WILL BE
A LAST MINUTE DECISION AS TO WHETHER THE CURRENT ADVISORY AREA WILL BE
EXTENDED BEYOND THE CURRENT EXPIRATION TIME OF 7AM. THE JOSTLING OF THE
PRODUCTS ASIDE...THE MAIN POINT IS THAT AN ADDITIONAL LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING RUSH HOUR.

TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING REMAIN COLD AND COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS...THE CURRENT WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN TACT
UNTIL 10AM. THEREAFTER...EXPECT ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS WEST OF THE
RIDGE GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 20S AND MID/UPPER 30S TO THE EAST.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP EARLY...THEN BEGIN TO RISE AS CLOUDS
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGING SOME UPPER
SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT TO THE REGION. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY SO WILL
RUN WITH A DRY FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH JUST SOME LOW CHANCE POPS
FAR WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 445 AM EST THURSDAY...

MULTIPLE WINTER CONCERNS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY...ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM RACES THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA...REACHING THE WESTERN DOORSTEP AROUND DAYBREAK...THEN
TRANSLATING TO THE COAST BY EVENING. TRACK OF BEST LIFT AND
MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA ACROSS NE TN INTO NW
NC...THEN RELOCATING TO THE COAST PLAIN AS LOW PRESSURE IS INDUCED
OFF THE SC/NC COAST IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER SHORT WAVE. QPF STILL
IN THE 0.1 TO 0.2 RANGE WITHIN THIS BAND...WITH AMOUNTS MOSTLY
LESS THAN 0.10 ACROSS THE BULK OF THE RNK CWA...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR
SOUTHWEST SECTIONS. WITH A VERY COLD AIR MASS AND HIGH SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIO...THESE COULD EQUATE TO 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW. THIS
EVENT ALONE WILL NOT MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA EXCEPT IN A FEW
ISOLATED SPOTS...PERHAPS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WATAUGA AND ASHE.
HOWEVER...AS THE ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSES...WE MOVE BACK INTO A
PERIOD OF ENHANCED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES
OF THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS COULD
PUSH SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS SOME OF THE SOUTHWESTERN AND WESTERN
AREAS INTO THE LOW END OF ADVISORY CRITERIA. WITH ONGOING
HEADLINES...ISSUING SOMETHING FOR THIRD/FOURTH PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE LOW END NATURE OF THE EVENT AT THIS POINT...WOULD
JUST ADD CONFUSION AT THIS POINT. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOULD WIND DOWN A
LITTLE MORE QUICKLY THAN WITH THE CURRENT EVENT...GENERALLY
TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES BY SATURDAY EVENING.

THE ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL INITIATE ANOTHER STRONG AND EVEN MORE
SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION. WHILE THE CORE OF
THE ARCTIC AIR MASS...-40C...WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND AND THE NORTHERN MID- ATLANTIC...WE WILL
CERTAINLY SEE OUR SHARE OF BITTER COLD AIR HERE AS WELL. 850MB
TEMPS WILL FALL BELOW -20C BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING IN THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA AND REMAIN THERE UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SOUTHERN AREAS BOTTOMING OUT AROUND -18C AND
NORTHERN AREAS AROUND -22C. IN 2014 AND 2015...OUR COLDEST
MORNINGS...BELOW ZERO IN MANY AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...CAME
WHEN THE 850MB TEMPS WERE AROUND -25C. IT APPEARS WE WILL FALL
JUST SHORT OF THAT. HOWEVER...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COMBINE
WITH THE BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS BELOW
ZERO JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH -20 TO
-25C WIND CHILLS IN WESTERN GREENBRIER...AND OTHER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF BATH DOWN TOWARD WATAUGA. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES AND
EVEN A WIND CHILL WARNING...WILL BE NEEDED IN MANY AREAS WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY. AGAIN...THIS WILL NEED
TO BE ISSUED ONCE THE CURRENT SET OF ADVISORIES/WARNINGS EXPIRES.

MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO RISE ABOVE 10 IN THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND REMAIN IN THE 20S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND VERY COLD...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT RECOVERY IN
THE AFTERNOON FROM BITTER COLD TEMPS SUNDAY MORNING...AS LOW AS
-5F ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 515 AM EST THURSDAY...

SUNDAY THE VERY DEEP POLAR LONG WAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST AS THE
ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH SETTLES SQUARELY OVER THE REGION. AT THIS
POINT...THE ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A COMBINATION OF VIGOROUS
SHORT WAVES DESTINED TO MERGE INTO A SINGLE STRONGER SYSTEM ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. THE LATEST GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE
ECMWF...MEANING A FURTHER NORTHWARD TRACK...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS
GENERALLY REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK...BUT HAS TRENDED
COLDER. GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL BE BITTER COLD
AND DRY...THE COLDER TEMPERATURE SOLUTION OF THE GFS SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE. THE MODELS HAVE ALSO TRENDED STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM
AS THE ENERGY FROM TWO SHORT WAVES MERGES IN THE GA/SC AREA...NOW
DEPICTING A DEEPER COASTAL LOW AND POTENTIAL MILLER A TYPE
SCENARIO. AS WPC HAS NOTED...THE THREAT IS THERE FOR A SIGNIFICANT
WINTER STORM IN THE EAST...AND THIS DOES INDEED APPEAR TO BE THE
CASE. SIGNIFICANT SNOW AMOUNTS ARE INDICATED VIA BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF ACROSS THE RNK CWA...WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH STRONG
POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION...SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AS THE WARM NOSE INVADES THAT REGION MONDAY
NIGHT. HAVE ADVERTISED LIKELY POPS FOR THE ENTIRE CWA MON-MON
NIGHT AND CONFINED TO ALL SNOW WEST OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX PIEDMONT GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY WITH COLD AIR DEPTH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. ALL INTERESTS
ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS CLOSELY
REGARDING THIS POSSIBLE WINTER STORM EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT TEMPERATURES MAY MODERATE TOWARD
THE MID-WEEK PERIOD...BUT SNOWFALL MON-TUE MAY DETERMINE THAT TO A
GREAT DEGREE. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WOULD BE VERY CAUTIOUS
ABOUT JUMPING ON ANY SIGNIFICANT WARMING TRENDS AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1145 AM EST THURSDAY...

PERIODS OF LINGERING MVFR WILL PERSIST IN THE VICINITY OF
KBLF/KLWB INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DRIER AIR CAUSES ANY
REMAINING LOW DECK TO SCATTER OUT. OTHERWISE LOOKING AT OVERALL
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
SLOWLY DIMINISHING AND BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING MID CLOUDS
LIKELY LATE THIS EVENING OVER THE FAR WEST AND ELSEWHERE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER APPEARS THAT KBLF/KLWB SHOULD REMAIN WITH VFR
CIGS OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH BASES WILL BE QUICKLY LOWERING BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INCREASING MOISTURE
WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH DURING FRIDAY REACHING THE COAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. QUICK SHOT OF DEEPER MOISTURE UNDER THE PASSING UPPER
SUPPORT LIKELY TO YIELD A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS FROM THE
NC BORDER NORTH INTO SOUTHEAST WEST VA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON FRIDAY
BEFORE ENERGY JUMPS TO THE COAST. THINK COULD SEE A QUICK BURST OF
SNOW ESPCLY AROUND KBLF WITH SOME OF THESE LOWER CIGS/VSBYS
HEADING OUT TO KBCB BEFORE MOISTURE CUTS OFF CROSSING THE BLUE
RIDGE. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW REACH KROA BUT THINKING STILL VFR
THERE AND POINTS EAST WHERE WILL KEEP THINGS VFR/DRY THROUGH THE
VALID TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

NEXT ROUND OF NW FLOW KICKS IN BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE BY FRIDAY
EVENING WITH UPSLOPE BRINGING MVFR/IFR CIGS TO KBLF/KLWB INTO SAT
MORNING...BEFORE GOING VFR AGAIN BY LATE SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY AGAIN WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR POURING IN SATURDAY.

SHOULD BE VFR SUNDAY THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM SEEMS POISED TO BRING
WINTRY WX TO THE AREA AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SUB-VFR
EXPECTED REGION WIDE MONDAY INTO AT LEAST PART OF TUESDAY. TRACK
OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE PTYPE AND WHERE OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST...BUT FOR OUR AREA SOME WINTRY PRECIP
LOOKS LIKELY.
&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/MBS
NEAR TERM...JH/MBS
SHORT TERM...AMS/RAB
LONG TERM...AMS/RAB
AVIATION...JH/MBS/WP



000
FXUS61 KRNK 111657
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1157 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR DRIER WEATHER ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CROSS OUR REGION ON FRIDAY WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. GENERALLY QUIET
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND WITH MORE SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE ALONG THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM EST THURSDAY...

UPDATED TO LET THE GOING HEADLINES EXPIRE WITH ONLY FAR WESTERN
GREENBRIER COUNTY LIKELY TO SEE ADDED SNOWFALL INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...WHILE WIND CHILLS SLOWLY RECOVER AS TEMPS EDGE UP AND
WINDS DIMINISH WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. HOWEVER WILL STILL
BE COLD WITH CHILLS OVER THE MOUNTAINS STAYING IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS...WITH SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS PERSISTING
BELOW ZERO ALTHOUGH TOO ISOLATED TO KEEP A HEADLINE GOING. WILL
ALSO LIKELY COVER THE LINGERING SNOW WITH A SPS UNTIL DRIER AIR
FINALLY WINS OUT AS SEEN OFF LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AND
LATEST VISIBLE PICS. OTHERWISE LOWERED HIGHS SLIGHTLY OVER THE
WEST BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND ONLY SLOW RECOVERY AT 85H THIS
AFTERNOON DESPITE INCREASING INSOLATION. EXPECT AREAS EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE TO SEE A LITTLE BUMP GIVEN DOWNSLOPE BUT MOSTLY LOW/MID
30S OUT TO THE PIEDMONT. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD PERSIST INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE SURFACE HIGH FINALLY NOSES EAST AND THE LOW
LEVEL JET FADES AS DEEP COLD ADVECTION STARTS TO BRIEFLY WANE.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 430 AM EST THURSDAY...

COLD NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO LOCATIONS
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...ESPECIALLY THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS...THROUGH THIS MORNING. THANKFULLY SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL
START TO WANE AS THE UPPER TROF FINALLY PULLS THROUGH THE REGION AND
ALLOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FROM THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
SNOW SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF TO LINGERING FLURRIES BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
CURRENT WATCH/WARNING SITUATION IS COMPLICATED AS THERE LOOKS TO BE ONE
LAST BURST OF SNOW RIGHT AROUND 12Z THAT MAY BRING AN ADDITIONAL INCH
OR SO TO THE WARNING AREAS AND POSSIBLY A LOCALIZED LIGHT ACCUMULATION
IN A SNOWBANK EAST TO THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH THIS IN MIND IT APPEARS THE
BEST COURSE OF ACTION WILL BE TO CONTINUE THE WARNINGS UNTIL THEY
EXPIRE AT 7AM AND FOLLOW THEM WITH AN ADVISORY THROUGH 10AM. IT WILL BE
A LAST MINUTE DECISION AS TO WHETHER THE CURRENT ADVISORY AREA WILL BE
EXTENDED BEYOND THE CURRENT EXPIRATION TIME OF 7AM. THE JOSTLING OF THE
PRODUCTS ASIDE...THE MAIN POINT IS THAT AN ADDITIONAL LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING RUSH HOUR.

TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING REMAIN COLD AND COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS...THE CURRENT WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN TACT
UNTIL 10AM. THEREAFTER...EXPECT ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS WEST OF THE
RIDGE GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 20S AND MID/UPPER 30S TO THE EAST.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP EARLY...THEN BEGIN TO RISE AS CLOUDS
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGING SOME UPPER
SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT TO THE REGION. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY SO WILL
RUN WITH A DRY FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH JUST SOME LOW CHANCE POPS
FAR WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 445 AM EST THURSDAY...

MULTIPLE WINTER CONCERNS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY...ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM RACES THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA...REACHING THE WESTERN DOORSTEP AROUND DAYBREAK...THEN
TRANSLATING TO THE COAST BY EVENING. TRACK OF BEST LIFT AND
MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA ACROSS NE TN INTO NW
NC...THEN RELOCATING TO THE COAST PLAIN AS LOW PRESSURE IS INDUCED
OFF THE SC/NC COAST IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER SHORT WAVE. QPF STILL
IN THE 0.1 TO 0.2 RANGE WITHIN THIS BAND...WITH AMOUNTS MOSTLY
LESS THAN 0.10 ACROSS THE BULK OF THE RNK CWA...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR
SOUTHWEST SECTIONS. WITH A VERY COLD AIR MASS AND HIGH SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIO...THESE COULD EQUATE TO 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW. THIS
EVENT ALONE WILL NOT MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA EXCEPT IN A FEW
ISOLATED SPOTS...PERHAPS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WATAUGA AND ASHE.
HOWEVER...AS THE ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSES...WE MOVE BACK INTO A
PERIOD OF ENHANCED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES
OF THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS COULD
PUSH SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS SOME OF THE SOUTHWESTERN AND WESTERN
AREAS INTO THE LOW END OF ADVISORY CRITERIA. WITH ONGOING
HEADLINES...ISSUING SOMETHING FOR THIRD/FOURTH PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE LOW END NATURE OF THE EVENT AT THIS POINT...WOULD
JUST ADD CONFUSION AT THIS POINT. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOULD WIND DOWN A
LITTLE MORE QUICKLY THAN WITH THE CURRENT EVENT...GENERALLY
TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES BY SATURDAY EVENING.

THE ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL INITIATE ANOTHER STRONG AND EVEN MORE
SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION. WHILE THE CORE OF
THE ARCTIC AIR MASS...-40C...WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND AND THE NORTHERN MID- ATLANTIC...WE WILL
CERTAINLY SEE OUR SHARE OF BITTER COLD AIR HERE AS WELL. 850MB
TEMPS WILL FALL BELOW -20C BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING IN THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA AND REMAIN THERE UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SOUTHERN AREAS BOTTOMING OUT AROUND -18C AND
NORTHERN AREAS AROUND -22C. IN 2014 AND 2015...OUR COLDEST
MORNINGS...BELOW ZERO IN MANY AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...CAME
WHEN THE 850MB TEMPS WERE AROUND -25C. IT APPEARS WE WILL FALL
JUST SHORT OF THAT. HOWEVER...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COMBINE
WITH THE BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS BELOW
ZERO JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH -20 TO
-25C WIND CHILLS IN WESTERN GREENBRIER...AND OTHER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF BATH DOWN TOWARD WATAUGA. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES AND
EVEN A WIND CHILL WARNING...WILL BE NEEDED IN MANY AREAS WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY. AGAIN...THIS WILL NEED
TO BE ISSUED ONCE THE CURRENT SET OF ADVISORIES/WARNINGS EXPIRES.

MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO RISE ABOVE 10 IN THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND REMAIN IN THE 20S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND VERY COLD...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT RECOVERY IN
THE AFTERNOON FROM BITTER COLD TEMPS SUNDAY MORNING...AS LOW AS
-5F ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 515 AM EST THURSDAY...

SUNDAY THE VERY DEEP POLAR LONG WAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST AS THE
ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH SETTLES SQUARELY OVER THE REGION. AT THIS
POINT...THE ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A COMBINATION OF VIGOROUS
SHORT WAVES DESTINED TO MERGE INTO A SINGLE STRONGER SYSTEM ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. THE LATEST GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE
ECMWF...MEANING A FURTHER NORTHWARD TRACK...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS
GENERALLY REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK...BUT HAS TRENDED
COLDER. GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL BE BITTER COLD
AND DRY...THE COLDER TEMPERATURE SOLUTION OF THE GFS SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE. THE MODELS HAVE ALSO TRENDED STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM
AS THE ENERGY FROM TWO SHORT WAVES MERGES IN THE GA/SC AREA...NOW
DEPICTING A DEEPER COASTAL LOW AND POTENTIAL MILLER A TYPE
SCENARIO. AS WPC HAS NOTED...THE THREAT IS THERE FOR A SIGNIFICANT
WINTER STORM IN THE EAST...AND THIS DOES INDEED APPEAR TO BE THE
CASE. SIGNIFICANT SNOW AMOUNTS ARE INDICATED VIA BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF ACROSS THE RNK CWA...WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH STRONG
POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION...SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AS THE WARM NOSE INVADES THAT REGION MONDAY
NIGHT. HAVE ADVERTISED LIKELY POPS FOR THE ENTIRE CWA MON-MON
NIGHT AND CONFINED TO ALL SNOW WEST OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX PIEDMONT GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY WITH COLD AIR DEPTH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. ALL INTERESTS
ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS CLOSELY
REGARDING THIS POSSIBLE WINTER STORM EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT TEMPERATURES MAY MODERATE TOWARD
THE MID-WEEK PERIOD...BUT SNOWFALL MON-TUE MAY DETERMINE THAT TO A
GREAT DEGREE. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WOULD BE VERY CAUTIOUS
ABOUT JUMPING ON ANY SIGNIFICANT WARMING TRENDS AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1145 AM EST THURSDAY...

PERIODS OF LINGERING MVFR WILL PERSIST IN THE VICINITY OF
KBLF/KLWB INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DRIER AIR CAUSES ANY
REMAINING LOW DECK TO SCATTER OUT. OTHERWISE LOOKING AT OVERALL
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
SLOWLY DIMINISHING AND BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING MID CLOUDS
LIKELY LATE THIS EVENING OVER THE FAR WEST AND ELSEWHERE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER APPEARS THAT KBLF/KLWB SHOULD REMAIN WITH VFR
CIGS OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH BASES WILL BE QUICKLY LOWERING BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INCREASING MOISTURE
WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH DURING FRIDAY REACHING THE COAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. QUICK SHOT OF DEEPER MOISTURE UNDER THE PASSING UPPER
SUPPORT LIKELY TO YIELD A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS FROM THE
NC BORDER NORTH INTO SOUTHEAST WEST VA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON FRIDAY
BEFORE ENERGY JUMPS TO THE COAST. THINK COULD SEE A QUICK BURST OF
SNOW ESPCLY AROUND KBLF WITH SOME OF THESE LOWER CIGS/VSBYS
HEADING OUT TO KBCB BEFORE MOISTURE CUTS OFF CROSSING THE BLUE
RIDGE. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW REACH KROA BUT THINKING STILL VFR
THERE AND POINTS EAST WHERE WILL KEEP THINGS VFR/DRY THROUGH THE
VALID TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

NEXT ROUND OF NW FLOW KICKS IN BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE BY FRIDAY
EVENING WITH UPSLOPE BRINGING MVFR/IFR CIGS TO KBLF/KLWB INTO SAT
MORNING...BEFORE GOING VFR AGAIN BY LATE SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY AGAIN WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR POURING IN SATURDAY.

SHOULD BE VFR SUNDAY THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM SEEMS POISED TO BRING
WINTRY WX TO THE AREA AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SUB-VFR
EXPECTED REGION WIDE MONDAY INTO AT LEAST PART OF TUESDAY. TRACK
OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE PTYPE AND WHERE OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST...BUT FOR OUR AREA SOME WINTRY PRECIP
LOOKS LIKELY.
&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/MBS
NEAR TERM...JH/MBS
SHORT TERM...AMS/RAB
LONG TERM...AMS/RAB
AVIATION...JH/MBS/WP




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 111549
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1049 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA TODAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST FRIDAY MORNING...THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
AND VIRGINIA COASTS AND OUT TO SEA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS BROAD/ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS THIS MORNING. ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEVELOPING WINTER STORM FOR FRI IS CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. AT THE SFC...~1030MB HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST...RIDGING SEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
VERY DRY WITH PWATS AOB 0.2 INCHES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO AROUND 0 DEGREES. SHEAR AXIS OVER THE REGION HAS RESULTED
IN LITTLE MORE THAN MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE ERN SHORE. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY UNDER A SUNNY SKY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OH VALLEY. MAIN IMPACT TODAY WILL BE COLD
TEMPS...WITH HIGHS ONLY FORECAST IN THE LOW 30S NW TO UPPER 30S SE.
BREEZY WITH NW WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH
ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE ERN SHORE. AS A RESULT...WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HI PRES WILL BLD OVR THE REGION TNGT INTO EARLY FRI MORNG...AS
UPR LVL ENERGY DIGS ESE FM THE UPR MIDWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND
THE CAROLINAS. DRY/COLD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TNGT INTO AT LEAST
EARLY FRI MORNG. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WEAK SFC LO PRES ALONG THE SE CST FRI MORNG...WHICH THEN TRACKS
ENE OUT TO SEA FRI AFTN/NGT. 00Z/11 ECMWF REMAINS THE MODEL THAT
KEEPS DEEPEST MOISTURE WITH THAT SYSTEM S OF THE FA. BUT...WILL
CONTINUE TO BLEND THE 00Z/11 NAM/GFS AND CURRENT FCST...WHICH HAS
A PERIOD OF LGT SNOW POSSIBLE ACRS FAR SRN AND SE PORTIONS OF VA
AND ACRS NE NC (STARTING BETWEEN 15-18Z/12). MODEL SOUNDINGS
QUITE DRY BLO 5KFT AND EXPECTING SNOW RATIOS UPWARDS OF 15:1. QPF
ATTM AOB .10" ON AVERAGE. SOME SCT -SN WILL BE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE...AS THE TROF ALOFT SHARPENS INTO THE REGION FM THE
WNW. POPS WILL RANGE FM 40-60% SE...TO 15-25% ELSEWHERE. SNOW
ACCUMS AT THIS TIME ARE FCST TO BE AN INCH OR LESS...WITH THE ONE
INCH AMT CLOSER TO THE ALBEMARLE SND. DUE TO CLOUDS AND A COLD
START...EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE LWR TO MID 30S.

VRBL CLUODS/POSSIBLE ISLTD -SNSH FRI EVENG...THEN STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE FA LATE FRI NGT/SAT MORNG...USHERING IN ADDITIONAL
ARCTIC AIR. POTENTIAL FOR BAY/OCEAN INDUCED SNSH...OTHERWISE
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SAT WITH GUSTY NW WINDS (TO 25-30
MPH). HI TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 20S NW TO 30-35F ELSEWHERE
(WIND CHILLS AVERAGING IN THE TEENS TO LWR 20S).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG CAA WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT...AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. 850MB TEMPERATURES PLUMMET TO AROUND -20 TO
- 22C ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIRMASS SO
FAR THIS WINTER...AND IT WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE
2015- 16 WINTER LOCALLY BASED ON THE FACT THAT IT WILL BE MID-
FEBRUARY AND THE 8-14 DAY CPC OUTLOOK INDICATES ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATER PORTION OF THE MONTH. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
WITH MID TEENS SE. A NW WIND (STRONGEST E) WILL DROP WIND CHILLS
BELOW 0F FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST
WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY. THE HIGH BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
LOW 20S NE...TO MID/UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY
SKY...ALTHOUGH BAY STREAMERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ATTENTION
TURNING TO A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. THERE
IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS. HOWEVER...A
TROUGH DOES DIG ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE COLD
AIR WILL SHALLOW AND RETREAT DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT WILL LIKELY
BE STUBBORN TO RETREAT TOO FAST. THE AMOUNT OF WINTRY PCPN WILL
DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK...WITH THE 10/12Z GFS/CMC SHOWING A
COLDER MORE SRN AND OFFSHORE TRACK...WITH TH3 10/12Z ECMWF
DEPICTING AN INLAND AND WARMER TRACK. DRYING OCCURS MIDWEEK IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE CLIPPING THE
AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRS BUILDS IN FROM THE W RESULTING IN MAINLY SKC. SCT "BAY
STREAMER" SC ARE PSBL. TIGHT PRS GRDNT FROM THE HIGH RESULTS IN
BREEZY CNDTNS WITH W WNDS BTWN 15-25 KTS THRU 22Z. WNDS QUICKLY
DMNSH BY SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW MAINLY ORF/ECG
AREA LATE FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH GUSTY NW WINDS RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST BY MONDAY MORNING.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW MONDAY AS SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH WINDS BRING A WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
STRNG SCA`S REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA DUE TO
MODEST CAA FROM A TIGHT PRS GRDNT BTWN DEPARTING S/W AND BLDG SFC
HIGH TO THE W. CAPPED WIND GUSTS AT 30 KTS. ADDED LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY OVER THE CHES BAY AND COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING GIVEN TMPS
AOB 30 DEGREES COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS. SEAS 4-5 FT GIVEN THE
OFFSHORE FLOW...HIGHEST OUT NR 20 NM. WNDS / WAVES / SEAS DMNSH THIS
EVE SO HAVE HEADLINES ENDG BTWN 23-06Z.

HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE FRI AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD BRING SOME REDUCED
VSBY IN SN FOR THE SRN COASTAL ZONES.

A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT THEN CROSSES THE COAST SATURDAY...WITH
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. STRONG
CAA IS EXPECTED WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE NE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NW. GALE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY (GUSTS BTWN 35-40 KTS)...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE BAY AND OCEAN. ADDED FREEZING SPRAY SAT NIGHT TO THE CHES
BAY AND CSTL WTRS AS TMPS FCSTD TO PLUMMENT THRU THE 20S AND INTO
THE TEENS. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNING FOR THE NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE
LEVEL FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE LAST NITE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE WNW FLOW WILL ALLOW ANOMALIES TO FURTHER FALL. STRONG NW FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE BLOW-OUT TIDES
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ634-650-652-
     654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>632.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 111549
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1049 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA TODAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST FRIDAY MORNING...THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
AND VIRGINIA COASTS AND OUT TO SEA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS BROAD/ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS THIS MORNING. ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEVELOPING WINTER STORM FOR FRI IS CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. AT THE SFC...~1030MB HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST...RIDGING SEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
VERY DRY WITH PWATS AOB 0.2 INCHES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO AROUND 0 DEGREES. SHEAR AXIS OVER THE REGION HAS RESULTED
IN LITTLE MORE THAN MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE ERN SHORE. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY UNDER A SUNNY SKY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OH VALLEY. MAIN IMPACT TODAY WILL BE COLD
TEMPS...WITH HIGHS ONLY FORECAST IN THE LOW 30S NW TO UPPER 30S SE.
BREEZY WITH NW WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH
ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE ERN SHORE. AS A RESULT...WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HI PRES WILL BLD OVR THE REGION TNGT INTO EARLY FRI MORNG...AS
UPR LVL ENERGY DIGS ESE FM THE UPR MIDWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND
THE CAROLINAS. DRY/COLD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TNGT INTO AT LEAST
EARLY FRI MORNG. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WEAK SFC LO PRES ALONG THE SE CST FRI MORNG...WHICH THEN TRACKS
ENE OUT TO SEA FRI AFTN/NGT. 00Z/11 ECMWF REMAINS THE MODEL THAT
KEEPS DEEPEST MOISTURE WITH THAT SYSTEM S OF THE FA. BUT...WILL
CONTINUE TO BLEND THE 00Z/11 NAM/GFS AND CURRENT FCST...WHICH HAS
A PERIOD OF LGT SNOW POSSIBLE ACRS FAR SRN AND SE PORTIONS OF VA
AND ACRS NE NC (STARTING BETWEEN 15-18Z/12). MODEL SOUNDINGS
QUITE DRY BLO 5KFT AND EXPECTING SNOW RATIOS UPWARDS OF 15:1. QPF
ATTM AOB .10" ON AVERAGE. SOME SCT -SN WILL BE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE...AS THE TROF ALOFT SHARPENS INTO THE REGION FM THE
WNW. POPS WILL RANGE FM 40-60% SE...TO 15-25% ELSEWHERE. SNOW
ACCUMS AT THIS TIME ARE FCST TO BE AN INCH OR LESS...WITH THE ONE
INCH AMT CLOSER TO THE ALBEMARLE SND. DUE TO CLOUDS AND A COLD
START...EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE LWR TO MID 30S.

VRBL CLUODS/POSSIBLE ISLTD -SNSH FRI EVENG...THEN STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE FA LATE FRI NGT/SAT MORNG...USHERING IN ADDITIONAL
ARCTIC AIR. POTENTIAL FOR BAY/OCEAN INDUCED SNSH...OTHERWISE
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SAT WITH GUSTY NW WINDS (TO 25-30
MPH). HI TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 20S NW TO 30-35F ELSEWHERE
(WIND CHILLS AVERAGING IN THE TEENS TO LWR 20S).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG CAA WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT...AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. 850MB TEMPERATURES PLUMMET TO AROUND -20 TO
- 22C ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIRMASS SO
FAR THIS WINTER...AND IT WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE
2015- 16 WINTER LOCALLY BASED ON THE FACT THAT IT WILL BE MID-
FEBRUARY AND THE 8-14 DAY CPC OUTLOOK INDICATES ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATER PORTION OF THE MONTH. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
WITH MID TEENS SE. A NW WIND (STRONGEST E) WILL DROP WIND CHILLS
BELOW 0F FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST
WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY. THE HIGH BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
LOW 20S NE...TO MID/UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY
SKY...ALTHOUGH BAY STREAMERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ATTENTION
TURNING TO A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. THERE
IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS. HOWEVER...A
TROUGH DOES DIG ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE COLD
AIR WILL SHALLOW AND RETREAT DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT WILL LIKELY
BE STUBBORN TO RETREAT TOO FAST. THE AMOUNT OF WINTRY PCPN WILL
DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK...WITH THE 10/12Z GFS/CMC SHOWING A
COLDER MORE SRN AND OFFSHORE TRACK...WITH TH3 10/12Z ECMWF
DEPICTING AN INLAND AND WARMER TRACK. DRYING OCCURS MIDWEEK IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE CLIPPING THE
AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRS BUILDS IN FROM THE W RESULTING IN MAINLY SKC. SCT "BAY
STREAMER" SC ARE PSBL. TIGHT PRS GRDNT FROM THE HIGH RESULTS IN
BREEZY CNDTNS WITH W WNDS BTWN 15-25 KTS THRU 22Z. WNDS QUICKLY
DMNSH BY SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW MAINLY ORF/ECG
AREA LATE FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH GUSTY NW WINDS RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST BY MONDAY MORNING.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW MONDAY AS SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH WINDS BRING A WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
STRNG SCA`S REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA DUE TO
MODEST CAA FROM A TIGHT PRS GRDNT BTWN DEPARTING S/W AND BLDG SFC
HIGH TO THE W. CAPPED WIND GUSTS AT 30 KTS. ADDED LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY OVER THE CHES BAY AND COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING GIVEN TMPS
AOB 30 DEGREES COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS. SEAS 4-5 FT GIVEN THE
OFFSHORE FLOW...HIGHEST OUT NR 20 NM. WNDS / WAVES / SEAS DMNSH THIS
EVE SO HAVE HEADLINES ENDG BTWN 23-06Z.

HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE FRI AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD BRING SOME REDUCED
VSBY IN SN FOR THE SRN COASTAL ZONES.

A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT THEN CROSSES THE COAST SATURDAY...WITH
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. STRONG
CAA IS EXPECTED WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE NE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NW. GALE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY (GUSTS BTWN 35-40 KTS)...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE BAY AND OCEAN. ADDED FREEZING SPRAY SAT NIGHT TO THE CHES
BAY AND CSTL WTRS AS TMPS FCSTD TO PLUMMENT THRU THE 20S AND INTO
THE TEENS. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNING FOR THE NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE
LEVEL FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE LAST NITE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE WNW FLOW WILL ALLOW ANOMALIES TO FURTHER FALL. STRONG NW FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE BLOW-OUT TIDES
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ634-650-652-
     654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>632.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KRNK 111509
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1009 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR DRIER WEATHER ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CROSS OUR REGION ON FRIDAY WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. GENERALLY QUIET
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND WITH MORE SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE ALONG THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM EST THURSDAY...

UPDATED TO LET THE GOING HEADLINES EXPIRE WITH ONLY FAR WESTERN
GREENBRIER COUNTY LIKELY TO SEE ADDED SNOWFALL INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...WHILE WIND CHILLS SLOWLY RECOVER AS TEMPS EDGE UP AND
WINDS DIMINISH WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. HOWEVER WILL STILL
BE COLD WITH CHILLS OVER THE MOUNTAINS STAYING IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS...WITH SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS PERSISTING
BELOW ZERO ALTHOUGH TOO ISOLATED TO KEEP A HEADLINE GOING. WILL
ALSO LIKELY COVER THE LINGERING SNOW WITH A SPS UNTIL DRIER AIR
FINALLY WINS OUT AS SEEN OFF LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AND
LATEST VISIBLE PICS. OTHERWISE LOWERED HIGHS SLIGHTLY OVER THE
WEST BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND ONLY SLOW RECOVERY AT 85H THIS
AFTERNOON DESPITE INCREASING INSOLATION. EXPECT AREAS EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE TO SEE A LITTLE BUMP GIVEN DOWNSLOPE BUT MOSTLY LOW/MID
30S OUT TO THE PIEDMONT. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD PERSIST INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE SURFACE HIGH FINALLY NOSES EAST AND THE LOW
LEVEL JET FADES AS DEEP COLD ADVECTION STARTS TO BRIEFLY WANE.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 430 AM EST THURSDAY...

COLD NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO LOCATIONS
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...ESPECIALLY THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS...THROUGH THIS MORNING. THANKFULLY SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL
START TO WANE AS THE UPPER TROF FINALLY PULLS THROUGH THE REGION AND
ALLOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FROM THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
SNOW SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF TO LINGERING FLURRIES BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
CURRENT WATCH/WARNING SITUATION IS COMPLICATED AS THERE LOOKS TO BE ONE
LAST BURST OF SNOW RIGHT AROUND 12Z THAT MAY BRING AN ADDITIONAL INCH
OR SO TO THE WARNING AREAS AND POSSIBLY A LOCALIZED LIGHT ACCUMULATION
IN A SNOWBANK EAST TO THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH THIS IN MIND IT APPEARS THE
BEST COURSE OF ACTION WILL BE TO CONTINUE THE WARNINGS UNTIL THEY
EXPIRE AT 7AM AND FOLLOW THEM WITH AN ADVISORY THROUGH 10AM. IT WILL BE
A LAST MINUTE DECISION AS TO WHETHER THE CURRENT ADVISORY AREA WILL BE
EXTENDED BEYOND THE CURRENT EXPIRATION TIME OF 7AM. THE JOSTLING OF THE
PRODUCTS ASIDE...THE MAIN POINT IS THAT AN ADDITIONAL LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING RUSH HOUR.

TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING REMAIN COLD AND COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS...THE CURRENT WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN TACT
UNTIL 10AM. THEREAFTER...EXPECT ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS WEST OF THE
RIDGE GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 20S AND MID/UPPER 30S TO THE EAST.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP EARLY...THEN BEGIN TO RISE AS CLOUDS
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGING SOME UPPER
SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT TO THE REGION. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY SO WILL
RUN WITH A DRY FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH JUST SOME LOW CHANCE POPS
FAR WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 445 AM EST THURSDAY...

MULTIPLE WINTER CONCERNS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY...ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM RACES THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA...REACHING THE WESTERN DOORSTEP AROUND DAYBREAK...THEN
TRANSLATING TO THE COAST BY EVENING. TRACK OF BEST LIFT AND
MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA ACROSS NE TN INTO NW
NC...THEN RELOCATING TO THE COAST PLAIN AS LOW PRESSURE IS INDUCED
OFF THE SC/NC COAST IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER SHORT WAVE. QPF STILL
IN THE 0.1 TO 0.2 RANGE WITHIN THIS BAND...WITH AMOUNTS MOSTLY
LESS THAN 0.10 ACROSS THE BULK OF THE RNK CWA...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR
SOUTHWEST SECTIONS. WITH A VERY COLD AIR MASS AND HIGH SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIO...THESE COULD EQUATE TO 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW. THIS
EVENT ALONE WILL NOT MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA EXCEPT IN A FEW
ISOLATED SPOTS...PERHAPS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WATAUGA AND ASHE.
HOWEVER...AS THE ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSES...WE MOVE BACK INTO A
PERIOD OF ENHANCED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES
OF THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS COULD
PUSH SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS SOME OF THE SOUTHWESTERN AND WESTERN
AREAS INTO THE LOW END OF ADVISORY CRITERIA. WITH ONGOING
HEADLINES...ISSUING SOMETHING FOR THIRD/FOURTH PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE LOW END NATURE OF THE EVENT AT THIS POINT...WOULD
JUST ADD CONFUSION AT THIS POINT. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOULD WIND DOWN A
LITTLE MORE QUICKLY THAN WITH THE CURRENT EVENT...GENERALLY
TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES BY SATURDAY EVENING.

THE ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL INITIATE ANOTHER STRONG AND EVEN MORE
SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION. WHILE THE CORE OF
THE ARCTIC AIR MASS...-40C...WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND AND THE NORTHERN MID- ATLANTIC...WE WILL
CERTAINLY SEE OUR SHARE OF BITTER COLD AIR HERE AS WELL. 850MB
TEMPS WILL FALL BELOW -20C BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING IN THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA AND REMAIN THERE UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SOUTHERN AREAS BOTTOMING OUT AROUND -18C AND
NORTHERN AREAS AROUND -22C. IN 2014 AND 2015...OUR COLDEST
MORNINGS...BELOW ZERO IN MANY AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...CAME
WHEN THE 850MB TEMPS WERE AROUND -25C. IT APPEARS WE WILL FALL
JUST SHORT OF THAT. HOWEVER...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COMBINE
WITH THE BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS BELOW
ZERO JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH -20 TO
-25C WIND CHILLS IN WESTERN GREENBRIER...AND OTHER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF BATH DOWN TOWARD WATAUGA. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES AND
EVEN A WIND CHILL WARNING...WILL BE NEEDED IN MANY AREAS WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY. AGAIN...THIS WILL NEED
TO BE ISSUED ONCE THE CURRENT SET OF ADVISORIES/WARNINGS EXPIRES.

MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO RISE ABOVE 10 IN THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND REMAIN IN THE 20S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND VERY COLD...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT RECOVERY IN
THE AFTERNOON FROM BITTER COLD TEMPS SUNDAY MORNING...AS LOW AS
-5F ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 515 AM EST THURSDAY...

SUNDAY THE VERY DEEP POLAR LONG WAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST AS THE
ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH SETTLES SQUARELY OVER THE REGION. AT THIS
POINT...THE ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A COMBINATION OF VIGOROUS
SHORT WAVES DESTINED TO MERGE INTO A SINGLE STRONGER SYSTEM ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. THE LATEST GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE
ECMWF...MEANING A FURTHER NORTHWARD TRACK...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS
GENERALLY REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK...BUT HAS TRENDED
COLDER. GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL BE BITTER COLD
AND DRY...THE COLDER TEMPERATURE SOLUTION OF THE GFS SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE. THE MODELS HAVE ALSO TRENDED STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM
AS THE ENERGY FROM TWO SHORT WAVES MERGES IN THE GA/SC AREA...NOW
DEPICTING A DEEPER COASTAL LOW AND POTENTIAL MILLER A TYPE
SCENARIO. AS WPC HAS NOTED...THE THREAT IS THERE FOR A SIGNIFICANT
WINTER STORM IN THE EAST...AND THIS DOES INDEED APPEAR TO BE THE
CASE. SIGNIFICANT SNOW AMOUNTS ARE INDICATED VIA BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF ACROSS THE RNK CWA...WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH STRONG
POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION...SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AS THE WARM NOSE INVADES THAT REGION MONDAY
NIGHT. HAVE ADVERTISED LIKELY POPS FOR THE ENTIRE CWA MON-MON
NIGHT AND CONFINED TO ALL SNOW WEST OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX PIEDMONT GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY WITH COLD AIR DEPTH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. ALL INTERESTS
ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS CLOSELY
REGARDING THIS POSSIBLE WINTER STORM EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT TEMPERATURES MAY MODERATE TOWARD
THE MID-WEEK PERIOD...BUT SNOWFALL MON-TUE MAY DETERMINE THAT TO A
GREAT DEGREE. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WOULD BE VERY CAUTIOUS
ABOUT JUMPING ON ANY SIGNIFICANT WARMING TRENDS AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 615 AM EST THURSDAY...

COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DOWNSLOPING VFR CONDITIONS
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND GENERALLY MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS MORNING. SUPPORT FOR THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
WANING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE MIDWEST AND THE UPPER TROF
PULLS THROUGH...SO EXPECT A TREND TO VFR ALL SITES BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY BEFORE SUBSIDING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF US FRIDAY AND MAY THROW SOME MVFR
CIGS TOWARD THE NC/VA BORDER WITH LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE...THEN NW
FLOW BEHIND THIS IS GOING TO BRING MVFR CIGS TO BLF/LWB INTO SAT
MORNING...BEFORE GOING VFR AGAIN BY LATE SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY AGAIN WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR POURING IN SATURDAY.
ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM POSES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA

SHOULD BE VFR SUNDAY THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM SEEMS POISED TO BRING
WINTRY WX TO THE AREA AS EARLY AS MONDAY WITH SUB-VFR EXPECTED
REGION WIDE. TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE PTYPE AND WHERE
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST...BUT FOR OUR AREA WINTRY
PRECIP LOOKS FAVORABLE. STAY TUNED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/MBS
NEAR TERM...JH/MBS
SHORT TERM...AMS/RAB
LONG TERM...AMS/RAB
AVIATION...MBS/WP




000
FXUS61 KLWX 111458
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
958 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE
MAY IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LETTING WIND CHILL ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 10 AM...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY
STILL BE SOME -10F READINGS ON THE HIGHEST RIDGELINES. WILL MAKE A
MENTION OF THIS IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WHICH WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 6 PM FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT UPSLOPE ACCUMULATIONS.

SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY AS THE FIRST
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ALOFT...BROAD UPPER LVL TROUGH
LIFTS NORTH AS ZONAL FLOW BUILDS IN BRIEFLY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND MOISTURE CONNECTION TO LAKE ERIE ARE
ALLOWING SOME FLURRIES TO DRIFT SE FROM PA INTO N-CNTRL MD.
CURRENTLY RADAR RETURNS ARE LIGHT BUT WILL MONITOR FOR ANY
POTENTIAL ENHANCEMENTS AND MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. CURRENT
TRAJECTORIES WOULD KEEP MOST OF THE FLURRIES NORTH OF DC. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE BEST POTENTIAL THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
MOISTURE THINS...ALTHOUGH SEVERAL HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST CONTINUED
POTENTIAL IN NE MD THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

GUSTY NW FLOW UP TO 30 MPH TODAY WITH THE AREA REMAINING
SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND APPROACHING HIGH. HIGH
TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL...AND COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS...WIND
CHILLS WILL HOVER IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. TONIGHTS LOWS
WILL DROP INTO SINGLE DIGITS ABV ZERO AND THE TEENS...BUT WITH
LIGHTER WINDS NOT ANTICIPATING ANOTHER WIND CHILL ADVISORY BEING
NEEDED. VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMP FORECAST NEEDED ATTM.

AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD FRIDAY...RETURN FLOW WILL USHER IN
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AND INCREASED MOISTURE. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
REACH NEAR FREEZING MOST PLACES. PCPN CHCS INCREASE FOR WESTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN AREAS WITH TWO LOW PRESSURE AREAS TO BE NOTED...LOW
PRESSURE ORGANIZING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND PRE-FRONTAL SFC
TROUGH SPLITTING THE WESTERN CWA. A LOT OF DRIER AIR NEEDS TO BE
OVERCOME...WHICH WILL MINIMIZE PCPN POTENTIAL...AT LAST THRU 00Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LVL TROUGH SWINGS SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT...SENDING THROUGH A
STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT. DEFINITE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE
COLD FROPA...AND SCT SNOW SHOWERS NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH
STRONG FORCING ALOFT. RIGHT NOW HAVE LESS THAN ONE INCH SNOW
CENTRAL MD (THOUGH WOULD BE A QUICK BURST)...WITH 1-3 INCHES OF
UPSLOPE SNOW...THE LATTER POTENTIALLY REQUIRING ANOTHER WINTER WX
ADVISORY.

THE BIGGER STORY WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE ARCTIC BLAST IN THE WAKE AS
A STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DIPS SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN US.
850MB TEMPS PLUMMET FROM -10 DEGREES CELSIUS 00Z SAT TO AROUND -20
DEGREES BY 12Z SAT. RESULTING TEMPS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS OUT WEST...TO THE 20S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. LOWS SAT NIGHT
WILL SEE BELOW ZERO TO RIGHT ABV ZERO WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...TO
SINGLE DIGITS ABV ZERO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. IN ADDITION...
STRONG NW WINDS EXPECTED WITH THE CAA...GUSTS AT LEAST 20- 30 KTS
AND 30-40 KTS IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS (WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED). CONCERNING WIND CHILLS...FRI NIGHT MOST LIKELY WILL NEED
AN ADVISORY FOR ALLEGHENY FRONT AND HIGHER BLUE RIDGE ZONES. THE
ADVISORY COULD CARRY THRU SAT. FOR SAT NIGHT...WIND CHILL WARNINGS
MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA...WITH WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES LIKELY FOR THE REMAINING CWA AS THE ENTIRE AREA DROPS
BELOW FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD SFC HIPRES WL BE OVER THE CWFA SUN. THE ONLY SAVING GRACE MAY
BE THE RELATIVE LACK OF WIND...THX TO SUBSIDENCE. ITLL STILL BE A
COLD DAY NONETHELESS...WITH A FRIGID START AND MAXT THEN STRUGGLING
TO CLIMB THRU THE 20S. THE PRESENCE OF THIS COLD AMS ATOP US WL PLAY
A ROLE IN THE MON-TUE FCST.

MASSIVE TEMP CHGS RARELY OCCUR GRACEFULLY. THATS LOOKING TO BE THE
CASE MON INTO TUE. WAA WL ENSUE SUN NGT-MON AS THE HIGH DRIFTS
OFFSHORE AND SRN STREAM LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACRS THE SRN PLAINS...
EVENTUALLY ARRIVING IN THE CAROLINAS MON NGT. GDNC SUGGESTING VERY
DIFFERENT STRENGTH SOLNS UP TO THIS POINT...AND LOPRES TRACK FCSTS
VARY AS WELL BYD THIS POINT. REGARDLESS OF THESE SPECIFICS...THE
LINGERING AMS WL BE COLD ENUF FOR PTYPE TO BE SNOW AT ONSET. AFTER
THAT...THERE ARE PLENTY OF QUESTIONS LEFT TO ANSWER. GDNC FROM THE
CURRENT CYCLE SUGGESTS THAT THE AMS OVER THE CWFA WL REMAIN COLD
ENUF TO HOLD OFF ANY MIXING/RAIN TIL TUE. THE NEARER THE TRACK HOLDS
TO THE CWFA...THE GREATER THE OPPORTUNITY FOR MIXED PTYPE ISSUES.
THERES PLENTY OF ROOM FOR THIS FCST TO CHG...MOST LKLY SVRL TIMES.

BY TUE NGT OR WED...THE RESULTANT /AND DEEPENING/ CSTL LOW WL BE
DEPARTING THE MID ATLC...W/ ZONAL FLOW AND SEASONABLE TEMPS IN ITS
WAKE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERALLY EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS LASTING THRU SAT NIGHT.
FLURRIES COULD AFFECT MAINLY MRB/BWI/MTN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME VSBY REDUCTIONS IN S PA...BUT NOT SURE IF
THIS INTENSITY REACHES THE TERMINALS. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS MAY BRING
A BRIEF REDUCTION IN CIGS AND VIS AT MAINLY KMRB/KIAD/KBWI/KMTN
FRI NIGHT. GUSTY NW WINDS TODAY...GUSTING BTWN 20-30 KTS. LIGHT
SW WINDS ON FRI...INCRSG QUICKLY FRI NIGHT AND GUSTING BTW 25-35
KTS THRU SAT NIGHT.

VFR SUN UNDER HIPRES. FLGT CONDS TO DETERIORATE BY MON AS LOPRES
APPROACHES THE AREA. PTYPE ISSUES ABOUND...BUT MOST LKLY ITLL BE
SNOW AT ONSET.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS TODAY WITH NW WINDS GUSTING
BETWEEN 20-30 KTS. AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN TONIGHT...WINDS
DIMINISH...DROPPING BELOW SCA CRITERIA ON ALL WATERS BY FRI
MORNING. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FRI WITH SCA CRITERIA RETURNING IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT FRI NIGHT. GALES LIKELY ON THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
WATERS BY 12Z SAT MORNING...AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC BY MIDDAY
SAT...LASTING THRU AT LEAST SAT EVENING AND POSSIBLY TILL SUN
MORNING.

WINDS WL DECREASE SUN AS HIPRES BLDS. MAY STILL HV SOME SCA CONDS IN
THE MRNG...BUT THESE WL DIMINISH THRU THE DAY. SLY FLOW BY MON AS
LOPRES APPROACHES. LKLY WL HV SNOW APPROACHING THE WATERS. PTYPE
AFTER THAT UNCERTAIN.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ501.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ503.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ501-
     503-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS
NEAR TERM...SEARS/ADS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...SEARS/ADS/HTS
MARINE...SEARS/ADS/HTS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 111116
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
616 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST AND GRADUALLY
BRING AN END TO OUR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TODAY. THEN...A CLIPPER SYSTEM
WILL CROSS OUR REGION ON FRIDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
THE WEEKEND WITH MORE SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ALONG THE FAR
WESTERN SLOPES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EST THURSDAY...

COLD NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO LOCATIONS
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...ESPECIALLY THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS...THROUGH THIS MORNING. THANKFULLY SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL
START TO WANE AS THE UPPER TROF FINALLY PULLS THROUGH THE REGION AND
ALLOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FROM THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
SNOW SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF TO LINGERING FLURRIES BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
CURRENT WATCH/WARNING SITUATION IS COMPLICATED AS THERE LOOKS TO BE ONE
LAST BURST OF SNOW RIGHT AROUND 12Z THAT MAY BRING AN ADDITIONAL INCH
OR SO TO THE WARNING AREAS AND POSSIBLY A LOCALIZED LIGHT ACCUMULATION
IN A SNOWBANK EAST TO THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH THIS IN MIND IT APPEARS THE
BEST COURSE OF ACTION WILL BE TO CONTINUE THE WARNINGS UNTIL THEY
EXPIRE AT 7AM AND FOLLOW THEM WITH AN ADVISORY THROUGH 10AM. IT WILL BE
A LAST MINUTE DECISION AS TO WHETHER THE CURRENT ADVISORY AREA WILL BE
EXTENDED BEYOND THE CURRENT EXPIRATION TIME OF 7AM. THE JOSTLING OF THE
PRODUCTS ASIDE...THE MAIN POINT IS THAT AN ADDITIONAL LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING RUSH HOUR.

TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING REMAIN COLD AND COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS...THE CURRENT WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN TACT
UNTIL 10AM. THEREAFTER...EXPECT ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS WEST OF THE
RIDGE GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 20S AND MID/UPPER 30S TO THE EAST.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP EARLY...THEN BEGIN TO RISE AS CLOUDS
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGING SOME UPPER
SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT TO THE REGION. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY SO WILL
RUN WITH A DRY FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH JUST SOME LOW CHANCE POPS
FAR WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 445 AM EST THURSDAY...

MULTIPLE WINTER CONCERNS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY...ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM RACES THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA...REACHING THE WESTERN DOORSTEP AROUND DAYBREAK...THEN
TRANSLATING TO THE COAST BY EVENING. TRACK OF BEST LIFT AND
MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA ACROSS NE TN INTO NW
NC...THEN RELOCATING TO THE COAST PLAIN AS LOW PRESSURE IS INDUCED
OFF THE SC/NC COAST IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER SHORT WAVE. QPF STILL
IN THE 0.1 TO 0.2 RANGE WITHIN THIS BAND...WITH AMOUNTS MOSTLY
LESS THAN 0.10 ACROSS THE BULK OF THE RNK CWA...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR
SOUTHWEST SECTIONS. WITH A VERY COLD AIR MASS AND HIGH SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIO...THESE COULD EQUATE TO 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW. THIS
EVENT ALONE WILL NOT MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA EXCEPT IN A FEW
ISOLATED SPOTS...PERHAPS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WATAUGA AND ASHE.
HOWEVER...AS THE ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSES...WE MOVE BACK INTO A
PERIOD OF ENHANCED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES
OF THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS COULD
PUSH SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS SOME OF THE SOUTHWESTERN AND WESTERN
AREAS INTO THE LOW END OF ADVISORY CRITERIA. WITH ONGOING
HEADLINES...ISSUING SOMETHING FOR THIRD/FOURTH PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE LOW END NATURE OF THE EVENT AT THIS POINT...WOULD
JUST ADD CONFUSION AT THIS POINT. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOULD WIND DOWN A
LITTLE MORE QUICKLY THAN WITH THE CURRENT EVENT...GENERALLY
TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES BY SATURDAY EVENING.

THE ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL INITIATE ANOTHER STRONG AND EVEN MORE
SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION. WHILE THE CORE OF
THE ARCTIC AIR MASS...-40C...WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND AND THE NORTHERN MID- ATLANTIC...WE WILL
CERTAINLY SEE OUR SHARE OF BITTER COLD AIR HERE AS WELL. 850MB
TEMPS WILL FALL BELOW -20C BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING IN THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA AND REMAIN THERE UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SOUTHERN AREAS BOTTOMING OUT AROUND -18C AND
NORTHERN AREAS AROUND -22C. IN 2014 AND 2015...OUR COLDEST
MORNINGS...BELOW ZERO IN MANY AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...CAME
WHEN THE 850MB TEMPS WERE AROUND -25C. IT APPEARS WE WILL FALL
JUST SHORT OF THAT. HOWEVER...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COMBINE
WITH THE BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS BELOW
ZERO JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH -20 TO
-25C WIND CHILLS IN WESTERN GREENBRIER...AND OTHER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF BATH DOWN TOWARD WATAUGA. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES AND
EVEN A WIND CHILL WARNING...WILL BE NEEDED IN MANY AREAS WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY. AGAIN...THIS WILL NEED
TO BE ISSUED ONCE THE CURRENT SET OF ADVISORIES/WARNINGS EXPIRES.

MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO RISE ABOVE 10 IN THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND REMAIN IN THE 20S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND VERY COLD...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT RECOVERY IN
THE AFTERNOON FROM BITTER COLD TEMPS SUNDAY MORNING...AS LOW AS
-5F ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 515 AM EST THURSDAY...

SUNDAY THE VERY DEEP POLAR LONG WAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST AS THE
ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH SETTLES SQUARELY OVER THE REGION. AT THIS
POINT...THE ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A COMBINATION OF VIGOROUS
SHORT WAVES DESTINED TO MERGE INTO A SINGLE STRONGER SYSTEM ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. THE LATEST GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE
ECMWF...MEANING A FURTHER NORTHWARD TRACK...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS
GENERALLY REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK...BUT HAS TRENDED
COLDER. GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL BE BITTER COLD
AND DRY...THE COLDER TEMPERATURE SOLUTION OF THE GFS SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE. THE MODELS HAVE ALSO TRENDED STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM
AS THE ENERGY FROM TWO SHORT WAVES MERGES IN THE GA/SC AREA...NOW
DEPICTING A DEEPER COASTAL LOW AND POTENTIAL MILLER A TYPE
SCENARIO. AS WPC HAS NOTED...THE THREAT IS THERE FOR A SIGNIFICANT
WINTER STORM IN THE EAST...AND THIS DOES INDEED APPEAR TO BE THE
CASE. SIGNIFICANT SNOW AMOUNTS ARE INDICATED VIA BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF ACROSS THE RNK CWA...WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH STRONG
POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION...SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AS THE WARM NOSE INVADES THAT REGION MONDAY
NIGHT. HAVE ADVERTISED LIKELY POPS FOR THE ENTIRE CWA MON-MON
NIGHT AND CONFINED TO ALL SNOW WEST OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX PIEDMONT GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY WITH COLD AIR DEPTH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. ALL INTERESTS
ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS CLOSELY
REGARDING THIS POSSIBLE WINTER STORM EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT TEMPERATURES MAY MODERATE TOWARD
THE MID-WEEK PERIOD...BUT SNOWFALL MON-TUE MAY DETERMINE THAT TO A
GREAT DEGREE. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WOULD BE VERY CAUTIOUS
ABOUT JUMPING ON ANY SIGNIFICANT WARMING TRENDS AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 615 AM EST THURSDAY...

COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DOWNSLOPING VFR CONDITIONS
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND GENERALLY MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS MORNING. SUPPORT FOR THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
WANING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE MIDWEST AND THE UPPER TROF
PULLS THROUGH...SO EXPECT A TREND TO VFR ALL SITES BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY BEFORE SUBSIDING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF US FRIDAY AND MAY THROW SOME MVFR
CIGS TOWARD THE NC/VA BORDER WITH LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE...THEN NW
FLOW BEHIND THIS IS GOING TO BRING MVFR CIGS TO BLF/LWB INTO SAT
MORNING...BEFORE GOING VFR AGAIN BY LATE SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY AGAIN WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR POURING IN SATURDAY.
ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM POSES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA

SHOULD BE VFR SUNDAY THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM SEEMS POISED TO BRING
WINTRY WX TO THE AREA AS EARLY AS MONDAY WITH SUB-VFR EXPECTED
REGION WIDE. TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE PTYPE AND WHERE
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST...BUT FOR OUR AREA WINTRY
PRECIP LOOKS FAVORABLE. STAY TUNED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ007-
     009>020-022>024.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ007-
     009>012-015-019-020.
NC...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ001-
     002-018.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ001-
     018.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ042>044-507-508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ042-
     044-507.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ508.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ043-
     508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ043.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...AMS/RAB
LONG TERM...AMS/RAB
AVIATION...MBS/WP




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 111100
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
600 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA TODAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST FRIDAY MORNING...THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
AND VIRGINIA COASTS AND OUT TO SEA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPR LVL LO PRES WILL LIFT FM THE ERN GRT LKS ENE INTO NRN NEW
ENGLAND DURING TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SFC HI PRES TO BLD IN FM THE
UPR MIDWEST. SUNNY OR MOSTLY SUNNY AND COLD TODAY WITH HI TEMPS
RANGING FM THE LWR TO MID 30S N...TO THE MID TO UPR 30S S. BUT...W
TO NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 MPH...WILL
RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES RANGING FM THE UPR TEENS TO THE UPR
20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HI PRES WILL BLD OVR THE REGION TNGT INTO EARLY FRI MORNG...AS
UPR LVL ENERGY DIGS ESE FM THE UPR MIDWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND
THE CAROLINAS. DRY/COLD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TNGT INTO AT LEAST
EARLY FRI MORNG. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WEAK SFC LO PRES ALONG THE SE CST FRI MORNG...WHICH THEN TRACKS
ENE OUT TO SEA FRI AFTN/NGT. 00Z/11 ECMWF REMAINS THE MODEL THAT
KEEPS DEEPEST MOISTURE WITH THAT SYSTEM S OF THE FA. BUT...WILL
CONTINUE TO BLEND THE 00Z/11 NAM/GFS AND CURRENT FCST...WHICH HAS
A PERIOD OF LGT SNOW POSSIBLE ACRS FAR SRN AND SE PORTIONS OF VA
AND ACRS NE NC (STARTING BETWEEN 15-18Z/12). MODEL SOUNDINGS
QUITE DRY BLO 5KFT AND EXPECTING SNOW RATIOS UPWARDS OF 15:1. QPF
ATTM AOB .10" ON AVERAGE. SOME SCT -SN WILL BE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE...AS THE TROF ALOFT SHARPENS INTO THE REGION FM THE
WNW. POPS WILL RANGE FM 40-60% SE...TO 15-25% ELSEWHERE. SNOW
ACCUMS AT THIS TIME ARE FCST TO BE AN INCH OR LESS...WITH THE ONE
INCH AMT CLOSER TO THE ALBEMARLE SND. DUE TO CLOUDS AND A COLD
START...EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE LWR TO MID 30S.

VRBL CLUODS/POSSIBLE ISLTD -SNSH FRI EVENG...THEN STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE FA LATE FRI NGT/SAT MORNG...USHERING IN ADDITIONAL
ARCTIC AIR. POTENTIAL FOR BAY/OCEAN INDUCED SNSH...OTHERWISE
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SAT WITH GUSTY NW WINDS (TO 25-30
MPH). HI TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 20S NW TO 30-35F ELSEWHERE
(WIND CHILLS AVERAGING IN THE TEENS TO LWR 20S).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG CAA WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT...AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. 850MB TEMPERATURES PLUMMET TO AROUND -20 TO
- 22C ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIRMASS SO
FAR THIS WINTER...AND IT WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE
2015- 16 WINTER LOCALLY BASED ON THE FACT THAT IT WILL BE MID-
FEBRUARY AND THE 8-14 DAY CPC OUTLOOK INDICATES ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATER PORTION OF THE MONTH. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
WITH MID TEENS SE. A NW WIND (STRONGEST E) WILL DROP WIND CHILLS
BELOW 0F FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST
WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY. THE HIGH BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
LOW 20S NE...TO MID/UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY
SKY...ALTHOUGH BAY STREAMERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ATTENTION
TURNING TO A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. THERE
IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS. HOWEVER...A
TROUGH DOES DIG ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE COLD
AIR WILL SHALLOW AND RETREAT DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT WILL LIKELY
BE STUBBORN TO RETREAT TOO FAST. THE AMOUNT OF WINTRY PCPN WILL
DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK...WITH THE 10/12Z GFS/CMC SHOWING A
COLDER MORE SRN AND OFFSHORE TRACK...WITH TH3 10/12Z ECMWF
DEPICTING AN INLAND AND WARMER TRACK. DRYING OCCURS MIDWEEK IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE CLIPPING THE
AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRS BUILDS IN FROM THE W RESULTING IN MAINLY SKC. SCT "BAY
STREAMER" SC ARE PSBL. TIGHT PRS GRDNT FROM THE HIGH RESULTS IN
BREEZY CNDTNS WITH W WNDS BTWN 15-25 KTS THRU 22Z. WNDS QUICKLY
DMNSH BY SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW MAINLY ORF/ECG
AREA LATE FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH GUSTY NW WINDS RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST BY MONDAY MORNING.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW MONDAY AS SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH WINDS BRING A WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
STRNG SCA`S REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA DUE TO
MODEST CAA FROM A TIGHT PRS GRDNT BTWN DEPARTING S/W AND BLDG SFC
HIGH TO THE W. CAPPED WIND GUSTS AT 30 KTS. ADDED LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY OVER THE CHES BAY AND COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING GIVEN TMPS
AOB 30 DEGREES COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS. SEAS 4-5 FT GIVEN THE
OFFSHORE FLOW...HIGHEST OUT NR 20 NM. WNDS / WAVES / SEAS DMNSH THIS
EVE SO HAVE HEADLINES ENDG BTWN 23-06Z.

HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE FRI AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD BRING SOME REDUCED
VSBY IN SN FOR THE SRN COASTAL ZONES.

A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT THEN CROSSES THE COAST SATURDAY...WITH
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. STRONG
CAA IS EXPECTED WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE NE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NW. GALE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY (GUSTS BTWN 35-40 KTS)...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE BAY AND OCEAN. ADDED FREEZING SPRAY SAT NIGHT TO THE CHES
BAY AND CSTL WTRS AS TMPS FCSTD TO PLUMMENT THRU THE 20S AND INTO
THE TEENS. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNING FOR THE NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE
LEVEL FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE LAST NITE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE WNW FLOW WILL ALLOW ANOMALIES TO FURTHER FALL. STRONG NW FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE BLOW-OUT TIDES
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ634-650-652-
     654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>632.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR
HYDROLOGY...MPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MPR



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 111100
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
600 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA TODAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST FRIDAY MORNING...THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
AND VIRGINIA COASTS AND OUT TO SEA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPR LVL LO PRES WILL LIFT FM THE ERN GRT LKS ENE INTO NRN NEW
ENGLAND DURING TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SFC HI PRES TO BLD IN FM THE
UPR MIDWEST. SUNNY OR MOSTLY SUNNY AND COLD TODAY WITH HI TEMPS
RANGING FM THE LWR TO MID 30S N...TO THE MID TO UPR 30S S. BUT...W
TO NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 MPH...WILL
RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES RANGING FM THE UPR TEENS TO THE UPR
20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HI PRES WILL BLD OVR THE REGION TNGT INTO EARLY FRI MORNG...AS
UPR LVL ENERGY DIGS ESE FM THE UPR MIDWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND
THE CAROLINAS. DRY/COLD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TNGT INTO AT LEAST
EARLY FRI MORNG. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WEAK SFC LO PRES ALONG THE SE CST FRI MORNG...WHICH THEN TRACKS
ENE OUT TO SEA FRI AFTN/NGT. 00Z/11 ECMWF REMAINS THE MODEL THAT
KEEPS DEEPEST MOISTURE WITH THAT SYSTEM S OF THE FA. BUT...WILL
CONTINUE TO BLEND THE 00Z/11 NAM/GFS AND CURRENT FCST...WHICH HAS
A PERIOD OF LGT SNOW POSSIBLE ACRS FAR SRN AND SE PORTIONS OF VA
AND ACRS NE NC (STARTING BETWEEN 15-18Z/12). MODEL SOUNDINGS
QUITE DRY BLO 5KFT AND EXPECTING SNOW RATIOS UPWARDS OF 15:1. QPF
ATTM AOB .10" ON AVERAGE. SOME SCT -SN WILL BE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE...AS THE TROF ALOFT SHARPENS INTO THE REGION FM THE
WNW. POPS WILL RANGE FM 40-60% SE...TO 15-25% ELSEWHERE. SNOW
ACCUMS AT THIS TIME ARE FCST TO BE AN INCH OR LESS...WITH THE ONE
INCH AMT CLOSER TO THE ALBEMARLE SND. DUE TO CLOUDS AND A COLD
START...EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE LWR TO MID 30S.

VRBL CLUODS/POSSIBLE ISLTD -SNSH FRI EVENG...THEN STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE FA LATE FRI NGT/SAT MORNG...USHERING IN ADDITIONAL
ARCTIC AIR. POTENTIAL FOR BAY/OCEAN INDUCED SNSH...OTHERWISE
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SAT WITH GUSTY NW WINDS (TO 25-30
MPH). HI TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 20S NW TO 30-35F ELSEWHERE
(WIND CHILLS AVERAGING IN THE TEENS TO LWR 20S).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG CAA WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT...AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. 850MB TEMPERATURES PLUMMET TO AROUND -20 TO
- 22C ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIRMASS SO
FAR THIS WINTER...AND IT WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE
2015- 16 WINTER LOCALLY BASED ON THE FACT THAT IT WILL BE MID-
FEBRUARY AND THE 8-14 DAY CPC OUTLOOK INDICATES ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATER PORTION OF THE MONTH. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
WITH MID TEENS SE. A NW WIND (STRONGEST E) WILL DROP WIND CHILLS
BELOW 0F FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST
WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY. THE HIGH BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
LOW 20S NE...TO MID/UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY
SKY...ALTHOUGH BAY STREAMERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ATTENTION
TURNING TO A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. THERE
IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS. HOWEVER...A
TROUGH DOES DIG ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE COLD
AIR WILL SHALLOW AND RETREAT DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT WILL LIKELY
BE STUBBORN TO RETREAT TOO FAST. THE AMOUNT OF WINTRY PCPN WILL
DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK...WITH THE 10/12Z GFS/CMC SHOWING A
COLDER MORE SRN AND OFFSHORE TRACK...WITH TH3 10/12Z ECMWF
DEPICTING AN INLAND AND WARMER TRACK. DRYING OCCURS MIDWEEK IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE CLIPPING THE
AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRS BUILDS IN FROM THE W RESULTING IN MAINLY SKC. SCT "BAY
STREAMER" SC ARE PSBL. TIGHT PRS GRDNT FROM THE HIGH RESULTS IN
BREEZY CNDTNS WITH W WNDS BTWN 15-25 KTS THRU 22Z. WNDS QUICKLY
DMNSH BY SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW MAINLY ORF/ECG
AREA LATE FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH GUSTY NW WINDS RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST BY MONDAY MORNING.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW MONDAY AS SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH WINDS BRING A WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
STRNG SCA`S REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA DUE TO
MODEST CAA FROM A TIGHT PRS GRDNT BTWN DEPARTING S/W AND BLDG SFC
HIGH TO THE W. CAPPED WIND GUSTS AT 30 KTS. ADDED LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY OVER THE CHES BAY AND COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING GIVEN TMPS
AOB 30 DEGREES COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS. SEAS 4-5 FT GIVEN THE
OFFSHORE FLOW...HIGHEST OUT NR 20 NM. WNDS / WAVES / SEAS DMNSH THIS
EVE SO HAVE HEADLINES ENDG BTWN 23-06Z.

HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE FRI AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD BRING SOME REDUCED
VSBY IN SN FOR THE SRN COASTAL ZONES.

A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT THEN CROSSES THE COAST SATURDAY...WITH
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. STRONG
CAA IS EXPECTED WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE NE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NW. GALE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY (GUSTS BTWN 35-40 KTS)...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE BAY AND OCEAN. ADDED FREEZING SPRAY SAT NIGHT TO THE CHES
BAY AND CSTL WTRS AS TMPS FCSTD TO PLUMMENT THRU THE 20S AND INTO
THE TEENS. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNING FOR THE NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE
LEVEL FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE LAST NITE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE WNW FLOW WILL ALLOW ANOMALIES TO FURTHER FALL. STRONG NW FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE BLOW-OUT TIDES
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ634-650-652-
     654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>632.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR
HYDROLOGY...MPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MPR




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 111100
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
600 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA TODAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST FRIDAY MORNING...THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
AND VIRGINIA COASTS AND OUT TO SEA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPR LVL LO PRES WILL LIFT FM THE ERN GRT LKS ENE INTO NRN NEW
ENGLAND DURING TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SFC HI PRES TO BLD IN FM THE
UPR MIDWEST. SUNNY OR MOSTLY SUNNY AND COLD TODAY WITH HI TEMPS
RANGING FM THE LWR TO MID 30S N...TO THE MID TO UPR 30S S. BUT...W
TO NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 MPH...WILL
RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES RANGING FM THE UPR TEENS TO THE UPR
20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HI PRES WILL BLD OVR THE REGION TNGT INTO EARLY FRI MORNG...AS
UPR LVL ENERGY DIGS ESE FM THE UPR MIDWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND
THE CAROLINAS. DRY/COLD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TNGT INTO AT LEAST
EARLY FRI MORNG. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WEAK SFC LO PRES ALONG THE SE CST FRI MORNG...WHICH THEN TRACKS
ENE OUT TO SEA FRI AFTN/NGT. 00Z/11 ECMWF REMAINS THE MODEL THAT
KEEPS DEEPEST MOISTURE WITH THAT SYSTEM S OF THE FA. BUT...WILL
CONTINUE TO BLEND THE 00Z/11 NAM/GFS AND CURRENT FCST...WHICH HAS
A PERIOD OF LGT SNOW POSSIBLE ACRS FAR SRN AND SE PORTIONS OF VA
AND ACRS NE NC (STARTING BETWEEN 15-18Z/12). MODEL SOUNDINGS
QUITE DRY BLO 5KFT AND EXPECTING SNOW RATIOS UPWARDS OF 15:1. QPF
ATTM AOB .10" ON AVERAGE. SOME SCT -SN WILL BE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE...AS THE TROF ALOFT SHARPENS INTO THE REGION FM THE
WNW. POPS WILL RANGE FM 40-60% SE...TO 15-25% ELSEWHERE. SNOW
ACCUMS AT THIS TIME ARE FCST TO BE AN INCH OR LESS...WITH THE ONE
INCH AMT CLOSER TO THE ALBEMARLE SND. DUE TO CLOUDS AND A COLD
START...EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE LWR TO MID 30S.

VRBL CLUODS/POSSIBLE ISLTD -SNSH FRI EVENG...THEN STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE FA LATE FRI NGT/SAT MORNG...USHERING IN ADDITIONAL
ARCTIC AIR. POTENTIAL FOR BAY/OCEAN INDUCED SNSH...OTHERWISE
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SAT WITH GUSTY NW WINDS (TO 25-30
MPH). HI TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 20S NW TO 30-35F ELSEWHERE
(WIND CHILLS AVERAGING IN THE TEENS TO LWR 20S).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG CAA WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT...AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. 850MB TEMPERATURES PLUMMET TO AROUND -20 TO
- 22C ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIRMASS SO
FAR THIS WINTER...AND IT WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE
2015- 16 WINTER LOCALLY BASED ON THE FACT THAT IT WILL BE MID-
FEBRUARY AND THE 8-14 DAY CPC OUTLOOK INDICATES ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATER PORTION OF THE MONTH. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
WITH MID TEENS SE. A NW WIND (STRONGEST E) WILL DROP WIND CHILLS
BELOW 0F FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST
WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY. THE HIGH BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
LOW 20S NE...TO MID/UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY
SKY...ALTHOUGH BAY STREAMERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ATTENTION
TURNING TO A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. THERE
IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS. HOWEVER...A
TROUGH DOES DIG ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE COLD
AIR WILL SHALLOW AND RETREAT DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT WILL LIKELY
BE STUBBORN TO RETREAT TOO FAST. THE AMOUNT OF WINTRY PCPN WILL
DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK...WITH THE 10/12Z GFS/CMC SHOWING A
COLDER MORE SRN AND OFFSHORE TRACK...WITH TH3 10/12Z ECMWF
DEPICTING AN INLAND AND WARMER TRACK. DRYING OCCURS MIDWEEK IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE CLIPPING THE
AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRS BUILDS IN FROM THE W RESULTING IN MAINLY SKC. SCT "BAY
STREAMER" SC ARE PSBL. TIGHT PRS GRDNT FROM THE HIGH RESULTS IN
BREEZY CNDTNS WITH W WNDS BTWN 15-25 KTS THRU 22Z. WNDS QUICKLY
DMNSH BY SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW MAINLY ORF/ECG
AREA LATE FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH GUSTY NW WINDS RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST BY MONDAY MORNING.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW MONDAY AS SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH WINDS BRING A WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
STRNG SCA`S REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA DUE TO
MODEST CAA FROM A TIGHT PRS GRDNT BTWN DEPARTING S/W AND BLDG SFC
HIGH TO THE W. CAPPED WIND GUSTS AT 30 KTS. ADDED LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY OVER THE CHES BAY AND COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING GIVEN TMPS
AOB 30 DEGREES COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS. SEAS 4-5 FT GIVEN THE
OFFSHORE FLOW...HIGHEST OUT NR 20 NM. WNDS / WAVES / SEAS DMNSH THIS
EVE SO HAVE HEADLINES ENDG BTWN 23-06Z.

HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE FRI AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD BRING SOME REDUCED
VSBY IN SN FOR THE SRN COASTAL ZONES.

A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT THEN CROSSES THE COAST SATURDAY...WITH
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. STRONG
CAA IS EXPECTED WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE NE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NW. GALE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY (GUSTS BTWN 35-40 KTS)...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE BAY AND OCEAN. ADDED FREEZING SPRAY SAT NIGHT TO THE CHES
BAY AND CSTL WTRS AS TMPS FCSTD TO PLUMMENT THRU THE 20S AND INTO
THE TEENS. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNING FOR THE NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE
LEVEL FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE LAST NITE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE WNW FLOW WILL ALLOW ANOMALIES TO FURTHER FALL. STRONG NW FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE BLOW-OUT TIDES
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ634-650-652-
     654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>632.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR
HYDROLOGY...MPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MPR




000
FXUS61 KRNK 111030
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
530 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST AND GRADUALLY
BRING AN END TO OUR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TODAY. THEN...A CLIPPER SYSTEM
WILL CROSS OUR REGION ON FRIDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
THE WEEKEND WITH MORE SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ALONG THE FAR
WESTERN SLOPES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EST THURSDAY...

COLD NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO LOCATIONS
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...ESPECIALLY THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS...THROUGH THIS MORNING. THANKFULLY SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL
START TO WANE AS THE UPPER TROF FINALLY PULLS THROUGH THE REGION AND
ALLOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FROM THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
SNOW SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF TO LINGERING FLURRIES BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
CURRENT WATCH/WARNING SITUATION IS COMPLICATED AS THERE LOOKS TO BE ONE
LAST BURST OF SNOW RIGHT AROUND 12Z THAT MAY BRING AN ADDITIONAL INCH
OR SO TO THE WARNING AREAS AND POSSIBLY A LOCALIZED LIGHT ACCUMULATION
IN A SNOWBANK EAST TO THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH THIS IN MIND IT APPEARS THE
BEST COURSE OF ACTION WILL BE TO CONTINUE THE WARNINGS UNTIL THEY
EXPIRE AT 7AM AND FOLLOW THEM WITH AN ADVISORY THROUGH 10AM. IT WILL BE
A LAST MINUTE DECISION AS TO WHETHER THE CURRENT ADVISORY AREA WILL BE
EXTENDED BEYOND THE CURRENT EXPIRATION TIME OF 7AM. THE JOSTLING OF THE
PRODUCTS ASIDE...THE MAIN POINT IS THAT AN ADDITIONAL LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING RUSH HOUR.

TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING REMAIN COLD AND COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS...THE CURRENT WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN TACT
UNTIL 10AM. THEREAFTER...EXPECT ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS WEST OF THE
RIDGE GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 20S AND MID/UPPER 30S TO THE EAST.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP EARLY...THEN BEGIN TO RISE AS CLOUDS
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGING SOME UPPER
SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT TO THE REGION. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY SO WILL
RUN WITH A DRY FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH JUST SOME LOW CHANCE POPS
FAR WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK FRIDAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 445 AM EST THURSDAY...

MULTIPLE WINTER CONCERNS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY...ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM RACES THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA...REACHING THE WESTERN DOORSTEP AROUND DAYBREAK...THEN
TRANSLATING TO THE COAST BY EVENING. TRACK OF BEST LIFT AND
MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA ACROSS NE TN INTO NW
NC...THEN RELOCATING TO THE COAST PLAIN AS LOW PRESSURE IS INDUCED
OFF THE SC/NC COAST IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER SHORT WAVE. QPF STILL
IN THE 0.1 TO 0.2 RANGE WITHIN THIS BAND...WITH AMOUNTS MOSTLY
LESS THAN 0.10 ACROSS THE BULK OF THE RNK CWA...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR
SOUTHWEST SECTIONS. WITH A VERY COLD AIR MASS AND HIGH SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIO...THESE COULD EQUATE TO 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW. THIS
EVENT ALONE WILL NOT MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA EXCEPT IN A FEW
ISOLATED SPOTS...PERHAPS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WATAUGA AND ASHE.
HOWEVER...AS THE ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSES...WE MOVE BACK INTO A
PERIOD OF ENHANCED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES
OF THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS COULD
PUSH SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS SOME OF THE SOUTHWESTERN AND WESTERN
AREAS INTO THE LOW END OF ADVISORY CRITERIA. WITH ONGOING
HEADLINES...ISSUING SOMETHING FOR THIRD/FOURTH PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE LOW END NATURE OF THE EVENT AT THIS POINT...WOULD
JUST ADD CONFUSION AT THIS POINT. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOULD WIND DOWN A
LITTLE MORE QUICKLY THAN WITH THE CURRENT EVENT...GENERALLY
TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES BY SATURDAY EVENING.

THE ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL INITIATE ANOTHER STRONG AND EVEN MORE
SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION. WHILE THE CORE OF
THE ARCTIC AIR MASS...-40C...WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND AND THE NORTHERN MID- ATLANTIC...WE WILL
CERTAINLY SEE OUR SHARE OF BITTER COLD AIR HERE AS WELL. 850MB
TEMPS WILL FALL BELOW -20C BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING IN THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA AND REMAIN THERE UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SOUTHERN AREAS BOTTOMING OUT AROUND -18C AND
NORTHERN AREAS AROUND -22C. IN 2014 AND 2015...OUR COLDEST
MORNINGS...BELOW ZERO IN MANY AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...CAME
WHEN THE 850MB TEMPS WERE AROUND -25C. IT APPEARS WE WILL FALL
JUST SHORT OF THAT. HOWEVER...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COMBINE
WITH THE BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS BELOW
ZERO JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH -20 TO
-25C WIND CHILLS IN WESTERN GREENBRIER...AND OTHER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF BATH DOWN TOWARD WATAUGA. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES AND
EVEN A WIND CHILL WARNING...WILL BE NEEDED IN MANY AREAS WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY. AGAIN...THIS WILL NEED
TO BE ISSUED ONCE THE CURRENT SET OF ADVISORIES/WARNINGS EXPIRES.

MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO RISE ABOVE 10 IN THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND REMAIN IN THE 20S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND VERY COLD...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT RECOVERY IN
THE AFTERNOON FROM BITTER COLD TEMPS SUNDAY MORNING...AS LOW AS
-5F ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 515 AM EST THURSDAY...

SUNDAY THE VERY DEEP POLAR LONG WAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST AS THE
ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH SETTLES SQUARELY OVER THE REGION. AT THIS
POINT...THE ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A COMBINATION OF VIGOROUS
SHORT WAVES DESTINED TO MERGE INTO A SINGLE STRONGER SYSTEM ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. THE LATEST GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE
ECMWF...MEANING A FURTHER NORTHWARD TRACK...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS
GENERALLY REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK...BUT HAS TRENDED
COLDER. GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL BE BITTER COLD
AND DRY...THE COLDER TEMPERATURE SOLUTION OF THE GFS SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE. THE MODELS HAVE ALSO TRENDED STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM
AS THE ENERGY FROM TWO SHORT WAVES MERGES IN THE GA/SC AREA...NOW
DEPICTING A DEEPER COASTAL LOW AND POTENTIAL MILLER A TYPE
SCENARIO. AS WPC HAS NOTED...THE THREAT IS THERE FOR A SIGNIFICANT
WINTER STORM IN THE EAST...AND THIS DOES INDEED APPEAR TO BE THE
CASE. SIGNIFICANT SNOW AMOUNTS ARE INDICATED VIA BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF ACROSS THE RNK CWA...WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH STRONG
POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION...SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AS THE WARM NOSE INVADES THAT REGION MONDAY
NIGHT. HAVE ADVERTISED LIKELY POPS FOR THE ENTIRE CWA MON-MON
NIGHT AND CONFINED TO ALL SNOW WEST OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX PIEDMONT GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY WITH COLD AIR DEPTH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. ALL INTERESTS
ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS CLOSELY
REGARDING THIS POSSIBLE WINTER STORM EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT TEMPERATURES MAY MODERATE TOWARD
THE MID-WEEK PERIOD...BUT SNOWFALL MON-TUE MAY DETERMINE THAT TO A
GREAT DEGREE. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WOULD BE VERY CAUTIOUS
ABOUT JUMPING ON ANY SIGNIFICANT WARMING TRENDS AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1140 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

MVFR CIGS AT BLF/LWB EARLY ON WILL START TO GET TO VFR BY 12-15Z
WITH SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ENDING. NOT PUTTING ANY VSBY ISSUES AT
THIS TIME..THINKING THE BEST SNOW SHOWERS MAY PUSH ACROSS BLF
BETWEEN 05-06Z.

WINDS WILL STAY GUSTY THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD...SUSTAINED
10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE AT BCB/ROA THROUGH 15Z.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ALLOWING WINDS TO
RELAX AND SKIES TO CLEAR.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL PARAMETERS...BUT LOWER EARLY IN BLF/LWB PER
SNOW SHOWER THREAT.


EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

VFR THURSDAY NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF US FRIDAY AND MAY THROW SOME MVFR
CIGS TOWARD THE NC/VA BORDER WITH LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE...THEN NW
FLOW BEHIND THIS IS GOING TO BRING MVFR CIGS TO BLF/LWB INTO SAT
MORNING...BEFORE GOING VFR AGAIN BY LATE SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY AGAIN WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR POURING IN SATURDAY.
ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM POSES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA

SHOULD BE VFR SUNDAY THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM SEEMS POISED TO BRING
WINTRY WX TO THE AREA AS EARLY AS MONDAY WITH SUB-VFR EXPECTED
REGION WIDE. TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE PTYPE AND WHERE
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST...BUT FOR OUR AREA WINTRY
PRECIP LOOKS FAVORABLE. STAY TUNED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ007-
     009>020-022>024.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ007-
     009>012-015-019-020.
NC...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ001-
     002-018.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ001-
     018.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ042>044-507-508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ042-
     044-507.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ508.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ043-
     508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ043.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...AMS/RAB
LONG TERM...AMS/RAB
AVIATION...JM/RCS/WP




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 110925
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
425 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA TODAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST FRIDAY MORNING...THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
AND VIRGINIA COASTS AND OUT TO SEA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPR LVL LO PRES WILL LIFT FM THE ERN GRT LKS ENE INTO NRN NEW
ENGLAND DURING TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SFC HI PRES TO BLD IN FM THE
UPR MIDWEST. SUNNY OR MOSTLY SUNNY AND COLD TODAY WITH HI TEMPS
RANGING FM THE LWR TO MID 30S N...TO THE MID TO UPR 30S S. BUT...W
TO NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 MPH...WILL
RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES RANGING FM THE UPR TEENS TO THE UPR
20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HI PRES WILL BLD OVR THE REGION TNGT INTO EARLY FRI MORNG...AS
UPR LVL ENERGY DIGS ESE FM THE UPR MIDWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND
THE CAROLINAS. DRY/COLD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TNGT INTO AT LEAST
EARLY FRI MORNG. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WEAK SFC LO PRES ALONG THE SE CST FRI MORNG...WHICH THEN TRACKS
ENE OUT TO SEA FRI AFTN/NGT. 00Z/11 ECMWF REMAINS THE MODEL THAT
KEEPS DEEPEST MOISTURE WITH THAT SYSTEM S OF THE FA. BUT...WILL
CONTINUE TO BLEND THE 00Z/11 NAM/GFS AND CURRENT FCST...WHICH HAS
A PERIOD OF LGT SNOW POSSIBLE ACRS FAR SRN AND SE PORTIONS OF VA
AND ACRS NE NC (STARTING BETWEEN 15-18Z/12). MODEL SOUNDINGS
QUITE DRY BLO 5KFT AND EXPECTING SNOW RATIOS UPWARDS OF 15:1. QPF
ATTM AOB .10" ON AVERAGE. SOME SCT -SN WILL BE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE...AS THE TROF ALOFT SHARPENS INTO THE REGION FM THE
WNW. POPS WILL RANGE FM 40-60% SE...TO 15-25% ELSEWHERE. SNOW
ACCUMS AT THIS TIME ARE FCST TO BE AN INCH OR LESS...WITH THE ONE
INCH AMT CLOSER TO THE ALBEMARLE SND. DUE TO CLOUDS AND A COLD
START...EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE LWR TO MID 30S.

VRBL CLUODS/POSSIBLE ISLTD -SNSH FRI EVENG...THEN STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE FA LATE FRI NGT/SAT MORNG...USHERING IN ADDITIONAL
ARCTIC AIR. POTENTIAL FOR BAY/OCEAN INDUCED SNSH...OTHERWISE
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SAT WITH GUSTY NW WINDS (TO 25-30
MPH). HI TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 20S NW TO 30-35F ELSEWHERE
(WIND CHILLS AVERAGING IN THE TEENS TO LWR 20S).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG CAA WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT...AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. 850MB TEMPERATURES PLUMMET TO AROUND -20 TO
- 22C ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIRMASS SO
FAR THIS WINTER...AND IT WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE
2015- 16 WINTER LOCALLY BASED ON THE FACT THAT IT WILL BE MID-
FEBRUARY AND THE 8-14 DAY CPC OUTLOOK INDICATES ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATER PORTION OF THE MONTH. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
WITH MID TEENS SE. A NW WIND (STRONGEST E) WILL DROP WIND CHILLS
BELOW 0F FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST
WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY. THE HIGH BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
LOW 20S NE...TO MID/UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY
SKY...ALTHOUGH BAY STREAMERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ATTENTION
TURNING TO A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. THERE
IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS. HOWEVER...A
TROUGH DOES DIG ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE COLD
AIR WILL SHALLOW AND RETREAT DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT WILL LIKELY
BE STUBBORN TO RETREAT TOO FAST. THE AMOUNT OF WINTRY PCPN WILL
DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK...WITH THE 10/12Z GFS/CMC SHOWING A
COLDER MORE SRN AND OFFSHORE TRACK...WITH TH3 10/12Z ECMWF
DEPICTING AN INLAND AND WARMER TRACK. DRYING OCCURS MIDWEEK IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE CLIPPING THE
AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW SHWRS ASSCTD WITH AN EWRD MOVG S/W WILL MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA
NEXT 1-2 HRS. OTW...HIGH PRS BUILDS IN FROM THE W RESULTING IN
MAINLY SKC EXPECT FOR SOME PASSING MID LVL CLDS FROM TIME TO TIME.
PRS GRDNT BTWN DEPARTING S/W AND BLDG SFC HIGH RESULTS IN RTHR
BREEZY CNDTNS WITH W WNDS BTWN 15-25 KTS THRU 22Z. WNDS QUICKLY
DMNSH BY SS THU.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW MAINLY ORF/ECG AREA LATE FRIDAY. DRY
WEATHER WITH GUSTY NW WINDS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
RAIN OR SNOW MONDAY AS SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS BRING A WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
STRNG SCA`S REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA DUE TO
MODEST CAA FROM A TIGHT PRS GRDNT BTWN DEPARTING S/W AND BLDG SFC
HIGH TO THE W. CAPPED WIND GUSTS AT 30 KTS. ADDED LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY OVER THE CHES BAY AND COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING GIVEN TMPS
AOB 30 DEGREES COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS. SEAS 4-5 FT GIVEN THE
OFFSHORE FLOW...HIGHEST OUT NR 20 NM. WNDS / WAVES / SEAS DMNSH THIS
EVE SO HAVE HEADLINES ENDG BTWN 23-06Z.

HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE FRI AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD BRING SOME REDUCED
VSBY IN SN FOR THE SRN COASTAL ZONES.

A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT THEN CROSSES THE COAST SATURDAY...WITH
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. STRONG
CAA IS EXPECTED WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE NE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NW. GALE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY (GUSTS BTWN 35-40 KTS)...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE BAY AND OCEAN. ADDED FREEZING SPRAY SAT NIGHT TO THE CHES
BAY AND CSTL WTRS AS TMPS FCSTD TO PLUMMENT THRU THE 20S AND INTO
THE TEENS. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNING FOR THE NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE
LEVEL FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE LAST NITE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE WNW FLOW WILL ALLOW ANOMALIES TO FURTHER FALL. STRONG NW FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE BLOW-OUT TIDES
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ634-650-652-
     654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>632.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR
HYDROLOGY...MPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MPR




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