Home > Products > State Listing > Virginia Data
Latest:
 AFDRNK |  AFDLWX |  AFDAKQ |
  [top]

000
FXUS61 KRNK 051720
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
120 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY FROM EAST TENNESSEE TODAY TOWARD
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY LATE MONDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY...THEN
STALL AND LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 952 AM EDT SUNDAY...

FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FAR WEST THROUGH TONIGHT.
THIS MORNING 12Z RNK SOUNDING SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN WITH S-SW FLOW AND INCREASED PWATS AT 1.5 INCH. FFG IS
RELATIVELY LOWER IN THE FAR WEST.

MODIFIED POPS AND PRECIPITATION TOWARDS RADAR TRENDS THIS
MORNING...THEN LEANED TOWARDS HRRR SOLUTION FOR LATE MORNING INTO
THIS AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL...TRIMMED BACK POPS IN THE EAST THIS
MORNING. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES WITH LATEST SURFACE OBS AND
BLENDED TOWARDS ADJMAV...WHICH SEEMED TO CAPTURE COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS. MORE CHANGES LATER TODAY...

AS OF 515 AM EDT SUNDAY...

A CLOSED LOW WILL BE SPLITTING OFF FROM THE MEAN TROF AND SLOWLY
MOVING OVER THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE AREA UP
FOR SOME WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND DEEP E/SE
FLOW WITH GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT GENERATING PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES APPROACHING TWO INCHES. THANKFULLY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE
NOT AS WET AS THEY COULD HAVE BEEN AND THE MOST VULNERABLE AREAS TO
HYDRO CONCERNS ARE FROM THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION UP THROUGH
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...SO A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR
THOSE COUNTIES FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT.

AS THE LOW SPINS SLOWLY TO OUR WEST...WE WILL SEE A BIT OF A DRY SOT
WORK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SEVERAL MODELS ARE QUITE AGGRESSIVE WITH
SHUTTING DOWN THE PRECIPITATION QUICKLY BUT WITH A CLOSED LOW AND
DECENT SYNOPTIC SUPPORT IN PLACE WILL SHADE THINGS TOWARD THE
SLOWER/WETTER SOLUTIONS.

WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED WE SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES TODAY JUST A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH
LOW/MID 80S EAST TO LOW/MID 70S WEST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY
BE 65 TO 70 EAST...WITH 60 TO 65 WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT SUNDAY...

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE NEAR THE VA/WV/KY BORDER INTERSECTION AT
12Z MON...DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN PA BY EVENING. THE
WARM ADVECTION AND HEAVIEST PART OF THE RAINFALL SHOULD BE LIFTING
TOWARD THE I-64 CORRIDOR AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD...THEN INTO
NORTHERN VA/WV BY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS IT DOES SO...A BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL DEVELOP ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. SOMEWHAT OF A
DRY SLOT IS EVIDENT WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE PIEDMONT AND AREAS
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS
DURING THE MORNING SHOULD FOCUS MORE TOWARD THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PART OF THE CWA BY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN THESE AREAS AFTER SUNSET. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN DURING THE DAY SHOULD FALL ROUGHLY NEAR THE I-77 AND
I-64 CORRIDORS WITH THE COMBINED EFFECT OF WARM ADVECTION RAINFALL
EARLY IN THE EVENT...TRANSITIONING TO DEFORMATION RAINFALL WEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO A FEW
SPOTTY SHOWERS ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH AN
ANTICIPATED DRY SLOT IN THAT REGION. WILL HOLD ONTO LIKELY POPS
ACROSS WEST MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH POPS DECREASING INTO THE SLIGHT
CHANCE CATEGORY NC COUNTIES BY EVENING. QPF AFT 12Z SHOULD RANGE
FROM 3/4 INCH IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TO 1/4 INCH IN THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA. THIS RAINFALL SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO
EXACERBATE ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
EVALUATE IF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL NEED TO CONTINUE BEYOND THE
CURRENT 10Z MON EXPIRATION.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL HAVE MOVED FAR ENOUGH NORTH
AWAY FROM THE AREA...AS WELL AS SHEARING OUT...THAT ANY ASSOCIATED
RAINFALL ACROSS OUR REGION SHOULD HAVE ENDED. LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY DRIZZLE MAY LINGER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BUT NO
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

FOR TUESDAY...PROGRESSIVE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES WILL
QUICKLY PUSH A NEW FRONTAL ZONE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK UPPER TROUGH
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. LINEAR ORIENTED...POTENTIALLY
STRONG CONVECTION...APPEARS LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY REACH WESTERN WV/FAR SOUTHWEST VA AND THEN DIMINISH AS
IT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE LESS FAVORABLE
EVENING HOURS. THIS AGREES WELL WITH THE MARGINAL RISK SPC HAS
ADVERTISED ON DAY 3 ENDING JUST SHY OF OUR WESTERN BORDER.
OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY SHOULD OFFER A MINIMUM OF
PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CWA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. HAVE GENERALLY ADVERTISED ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH A WARM...MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE...BUT DYNAMICS WILL BE LIMITED AT BEST.

WEDNESDAY HAS BECOME MORE PROBLEMATIC TODAY AMONG THE MODELS THAN
INDICATED YESTERDAY AS A RESULT OF INCREASED SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS ALLOWS THE TUESDAY FRONT TO
DRIFT INTO THE CWA AND THEN LIFT BACK NORTH. IT SHOULD LINGER LONG
ENOUGH IN THE REGION WEDNESDAY TO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
IF NOT NUMEROUS CONVECTION DURING AFTERNOON HEATING.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN. HOWEVER...EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE SOME INSOLATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WE
SHOULD SEE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THOSE AREAS.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FINALLY REACH ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS IN MUCH OF
THE CWA TUESDAY WITH INCREASED AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AND SOUTHWEST
SURFACE FLOW. WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES CLOSER
TO NORMAL AGAIN WEDNESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...THANKS TO CONTINUED HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT SUNDAY...

EXTENDED PERIOD TRENDING WARMER...BUT STILL SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED.
MODELS...TO VARYING DEGREES...ADVERTISING AN INTENSIFYING UPPER
RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE
GFS/CANADIAN ARE STRONGEST WITH THE UPPER RIDGE...THE ECMWF IS THE
WEAKEST...KEEPING A MORE ACTIVE WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
AT ANY RATE...INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER THAN IN RECENT DAYS.
AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THURSDAY SHOULD OFFER THE BEST
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME
MORE UNFAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED CONVECTION THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER RIDGING TAKING HOLD OF
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. THIS SHOULD PUSH THE MORE ACTIVE
BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO OH/PA/MD/NJ. WILL NEED TO WATCH LATER TRENDS
OF THE MODELS TO MAKE SURE THIS TREND CONTINUES...AS OPPOSED TO
SHIFTING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE FURTHER SOUTH AND WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...SHOULD THE UPPER RIDGE DRIFT FURTHER WEST AND REMAIN
LESS AMPLIFIED THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED.

WITH THE UPPER RIDGING...WE WILL HAVE TO START TALKING ABOUT HIGHS
IN THE 90S AGAIN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH
WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70...SO WILL NEED TO WATCH APPARENT TEMPERATURES
IN THOSE AREAS TOWARD MID-WEEK. NEEDLESS TO SAY...TEMPERATURES APPEAR
DESTINED TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM EDT SUNDAY...

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. A
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND REACH WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY LATE
MONDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH POCKETS OF IFR/LIFR IN
CONVECTION AND LOW CLOUDS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE AND DURATION ACROSS THE WESTERN
SITES...ESPECIALLY KLWB AND KBLF. LOCATIONS WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WHERE SOLAR HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. DAN IS THE TAF SITE WITH BEST
CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

MOST OF THE STORMS WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING BUT SOME
SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE WEST TONIGHT. AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVERNIGHT AFTER THE
HEAVIER RAIN DRIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA.

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE MONDAY WITH MVFR/IFR SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE NORTH.

OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
AT 4-7KTS TONIGHT. THEN WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT
5-10 KTS MONDAY AFTERNOON.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDOWS
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR VFR CONDITIONS INCREASE TUE. UPPER LOW/TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PA BY MONDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE...A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE OH VALLEY BY WED. THIS LEAVES A VERY
UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. TUE THROUGH THE DAY OFFERS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERAL
HOURS OF VFR...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH
IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR-
VFR OUTSIDE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ007-009-010-012.
NC...NONE.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ042-043-507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK/MBS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...PM/RAB
AVIATION...KK/RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 051720
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
120 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY FROM EAST TENNESSEE TODAY TOWARD
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY LATE MONDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY...THEN
STALL AND LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 952 AM EDT SUNDAY...

FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FAR WEST THROUGH TONIGHT.
THIS MORNING 12Z RNK SOUNDING SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN WITH S-SW FLOW AND INCREASED PWATS AT 1.5 INCH. FFG IS
RELATIVELY LOWER IN THE FAR WEST.

MODIFIED POPS AND PRECIPITATION TOWARDS RADAR TRENDS THIS
MORNING...THEN LEANED TOWARDS HRRR SOLUTION FOR LATE MORNING INTO
THIS AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL...TRIMMED BACK POPS IN THE EAST THIS
MORNING. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES WITH LATEST SURFACE OBS AND
BLENDED TOWARDS ADJMAV...WHICH SEEMED TO CAPTURE COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS. MORE CHANGES LATER TODAY...

AS OF 515 AM EDT SUNDAY...

A CLOSED LOW WILL BE SPLITTING OFF FROM THE MEAN TROF AND SLOWLY
MOVING OVER THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE AREA UP
FOR SOME WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND DEEP E/SE
FLOW WITH GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT GENERATING PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES APPROACHING TWO INCHES. THANKFULLY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE
NOT AS WET AS THEY COULD HAVE BEEN AND THE MOST VULNERABLE AREAS TO
HYDRO CONCERNS ARE FROM THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION UP THROUGH
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...SO A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR
THOSE COUNTIES FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT.

AS THE LOW SPINS SLOWLY TO OUR WEST...WE WILL SEE A BIT OF A DRY SOT
WORK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SEVERAL MODELS ARE QUITE AGGRESSIVE WITH
SHUTTING DOWN THE PRECIPITATION QUICKLY BUT WITH A CLOSED LOW AND
DECENT SYNOPTIC SUPPORT IN PLACE WILL SHADE THINGS TOWARD THE
SLOWER/WETTER SOLUTIONS.

WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED WE SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES TODAY JUST A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH
LOW/MID 80S EAST TO LOW/MID 70S WEST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY
BE 65 TO 70 EAST...WITH 60 TO 65 WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT SUNDAY...

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE NEAR THE VA/WV/KY BORDER INTERSECTION AT
12Z MON...DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN PA BY EVENING. THE
WARM ADVECTION AND HEAVIEST PART OF THE RAINFALL SHOULD BE LIFTING
TOWARD THE I-64 CORRIDOR AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD...THEN INTO
NORTHERN VA/WV BY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS IT DOES SO...A BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL DEVELOP ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. SOMEWHAT OF A
DRY SLOT IS EVIDENT WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE PIEDMONT AND AREAS
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS
DURING THE MORNING SHOULD FOCUS MORE TOWARD THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PART OF THE CWA BY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN THESE AREAS AFTER SUNSET. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN DURING THE DAY SHOULD FALL ROUGHLY NEAR THE I-77 AND
I-64 CORRIDORS WITH THE COMBINED EFFECT OF WARM ADVECTION RAINFALL
EARLY IN THE EVENT...TRANSITIONING TO DEFORMATION RAINFALL WEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO A FEW
SPOTTY SHOWERS ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH AN
ANTICIPATED DRY SLOT IN THAT REGION. WILL HOLD ONTO LIKELY POPS
ACROSS WEST MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH POPS DECREASING INTO THE SLIGHT
CHANCE CATEGORY NC COUNTIES BY EVENING. QPF AFT 12Z SHOULD RANGE
FROM 3/4 INCH IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TO 1/4 INCH IN THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA. THIS RAINFALL SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO
EXACERBATE ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
EVALUATE IF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL NEED TO CONTINUE BEYOND THE
CURRENT 10Z MON EXPIRATION.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL HAVE MOVED FAR ENOUGH NORTH
AWAY FROM THE AREA...AS WELL AS SHEARING OUT...THAT ANY ASSOCIATED
RAINFALL ACROSS OUR REGION SHOULD HAVE ENDED. LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY DRIZZLE MAY LINGER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BUT NO
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

FOR TUESDAY...PROGRESSIVE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES WILL
QUICKLY PUSH A NEW FRONTAL ZONE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK UPPER TROUGH
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. LINEAR ORIENTED...POTENTIALLY
STRONG CONVECTION...APPEARS LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY REACH WESTERN WV/FAR SOUTHWEST VA AND THEN DIMINISH AS
IT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE LESS FAVORABLE
EVENING HOURS. THIS AGREES WELL WITH THE MARGINAL RISK SPC HAS
ADVERTISED ON DAY 3 ENDING JUST SHY OF OUR WESTERN BORDER.
OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY SHOULD OFFER A MINIMUM OF
PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CWA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. HAVE GENERALLY ADVERTISED ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH A WARM...MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE...BUT DYNAMICS WILL BE LIMITED AT BEST.

WEDNESDAY HAS BECOME MORE PROBLEMATIC TODAY AMONG THE MODELS THAN
INDICATED YESTERDAY AS A RESULT OF INCREASED SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS ALLOWS THE TUESDAY FRONT TO
DRIFT INTO THE CWA AND THEN LIFT BACK NORTH. IT SHOULD LINGER LONG
ENOUGH IN THE REGION WEDNESDAY TO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
IF NOT NUMEROUS CONVECTION DURING AFTERNOON HEATING.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN. HOWEVER...EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE SOME INSOLATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WE
SHOULD SEE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THOSE AREAS.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FINALLY REACH ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS IN MUCH OF
THE CWA TUESDAY WITH INCREASED AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AND SOUTHWEST
SURFACE FLOW. WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES CLOSER
TO NORMAL AGAIN WEDNESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...THANKS TO CONTINUED HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT SUNDAY...

EXTENDED PERIOD TRENDING WARMER...BUT STILL SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED.
MODELS...TO VARYING DEGREES...ADVERTISING AN INTENSIFYING UPPER
RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE
GFS/CANADIAN ARE STRONGEST WITH THE UPPER RIDGE...THE ECMWF IS THE
WEAKEST...KEEPING A MORE ACTIVE WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
AT ANY RATE...INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER THAN IN RECENT DAYS.
AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THURSDAY SHOULD OFFER THE BEST
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME
MORE UNFAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED CONVECTION THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER RIDGING TAKING HOLD OF
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. THIS SHOULD PUSH THE MORE ACTIVE
BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO OH/PA/MD/NJ. WILL NEED TO WATCH LATER TRENDS
OF THE MODELS TO MAKE SURE THIS TREND CONTINUES...AS OPPOSED TO
SHIFTING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE FURTHER SOUTH AND WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...SHOULD THE UPPER RIDGE DRIFT FURTHER WEST AND REMAIN
LESS AMPLIFIED THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED.

WITH THE UPPER RIDGING...WE WILL HAVE TO START TALKING ABOUT HIGHS
IN THE 90S AGAIN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH
WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70...SO WILL NEED TO WATCH APPARENT TEMPERATURES
IN THOSE AREAS TOWARD MID-WEEK. NEEDLESS TO SAY...TEMPERATURES APPEAR
DESTINED TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM EDT SUNDAY...

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. A
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND REACH WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY LATE
MONDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH POCKETS OF IFR/LIFR IN
CONVECTION AND LOW CLOUDS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE AND DURATION ACROSS THE WESTERN
SITES...ESPECIALLY KLWB AND KBLF. LOCATIONS WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WHERE SOLAR HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. DAN IS THE TAF SITE WITH BEST
CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

MOST OF THE STORMS WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING BUT SOME
SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE WEST TONIGHT. AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVERNIGHT AFTER THE
HEAVIER RAIN DRIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA.

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE MONDAY WITH MVFR/IFR SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE NORTH.

OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
AT 4-7KTS TONIGHT. THEN WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT
5-10 KTS MONDAY AFTERNOON.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDOWS
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR VFR CONDITIONS INCREASE TUE. UPPER LOW/TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PA BY MONDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE...A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE OH VALLEY BY WED. THIS LEAVES A VERY
UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. TUE THROUGH THE DAY OFFERS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERAL
HOURS OF VFR...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH
IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR-
VFR OUTSIDE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ007-009-010-012.
NC...NONE.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ042-043-507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK/MBS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...PM/RAB
AVIATION...KK/RAB


  [top]

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 051548
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1148 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN VIRGINIA WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT NORTH
LATER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES NORTH OF THE
AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOMING MORE WIDELY SCATTERED. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MORNING ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARLY
STATIONARY AND ALIGNED W-E ACRS SOUTHERN VA. ALOFT...CAN SEE
CLOSED UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER KY/TN ON WV SATELLITE...ALLOWING H5 FLOW
TO SHIFT MORE TO THE S/SW ACRS THE MID ATLC. SKIES ARE CURRENTLY PARTLY
SUNNY ACRS SE VA/NE NC AND MAINLY CLOUDY OVER N/NW 1/2 OF THE CWA.

FOR THIS AFTN...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING OF
POPS...GENLY SLOWING DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE HIGHER POPS BY ABOUT
2 HRS...JUST A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER FAR W/SW
ZONES PRIOR TO 18Z...GRADUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE FROM 18-21Z
WITH TSTMS ALSO DEVELOPING. WILL BRING LIKELY POPS INTO MOST OF
SCENTRAL VA/INTERIOR NE NC AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL VA BY 20-21Z.
THIS IS WHERE BEST FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE SITUATED.
FARTHER N/E AND AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF SE VA/NE NC//ERN VA
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AND POPS WILL AVG
20-30% PRIOR TO 21Z. LOCALLY HEAVY RA...AND GUSTY WINDS (SUB-
SVR) THE MAIN THREATS FM ANY STORMS. HIGHS RANGE FROM THE UPPER
80S INTERIOR SE VA/NE NC...TO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ACRS THE
NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE INTO THE CNTRL MTNS TNGT. MDLS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL PUSH INTO SW
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS EVE...THEN SLOWLY SPREAD N/NE OVERNIGHT
INTO MON. THIS WILL SUPPORT HI CHC TO LIKELY POPS ONCE AGAIN ACRS
MOST OF THE CWA (WILL KEEP POPS A LITTLE LOWER ALG THE CST).
LOCALLYHEAVY RA AGN PSBL W/ ANY SHRAS/STORMS. MOST LO TEMPS SUN
NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS
TRANSITIONING A BIT TO THE N AND W AS UPR LVL LO SLOLY EXITS THE
CNTRL APPALACHIANS. HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S NW TO THE U80S/ARND 90F
SE. FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER...BUT WARMER BY TUE...WITH JUST
20-30% POPS MNLY IN THE AFTN/EVE WITH HI TEMPS FM THE M80S RIGHT
AT THE CST TO THE L90S ELSW.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH TUE WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL
VA TO INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF 1/2 INCH OR LESS OVR
MOST OF ERN VA TO THE LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LOCALLY MUCH
HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO
MOVING OR REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN
HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE COMING WEEK AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE SERN
U.S. AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT FRI/SAT.
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...FRNTL BNDRY WAS LAYING ACRS SRN VA...WITH JUST
ISLTD SHOWERS OVR SCNTRL/SE VA AND NE NC. THAT FRONT WILL LIFT
BACK N ACRS THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTN INTO MON. EXPECT
IFR CONDITIONS AT SBY AND POSSIBLY RIC EARLY THIS MORNG...THEN
MAINLY MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z-14Z. MORE SCTD SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WILL RETURN FOR LATER THIS AFTN INTO MON...DUE TO FRNTL
BNDRY LIFTING THRU THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE N OF THE REGION
MON NGT/TUE MORNG...WITH A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED
FOR TUE INTO WED. ISLTD LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU MON NGT. A FRNTL BNDRY
THAT WAS LAYING ACRS SRN VA EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL LIFT BACK N
ACRS THE REGION AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTN INTO MON. NNE
WINDS OR WSW WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT EARLY TODAY...WILL TURN TO THE
SE OR S FOR TNGT THRU MON. WINDS WILL THEN BE SSW AOB 15 KT
TUE/WED IN ADVANCE OF NEXT COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
2-4 FT THRU MIDWEEK...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT ON THE CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 051548
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1148 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN VIRGINIA WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT NORTH
LATER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES NORTH OF THE
AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOMING MORE WIDELY SCATTERED. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MORNING ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARLY
STATIONARY AND ALIGNED W-E ACRS SOUTHERN VA. ALOFT...CAN SEE
CLOSED UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER KY/TN ON WV SATELLITE...ALLOWING H5 FLOW
TO SHIFT MORE TO THE S/SW ACRS THE MID ATLC. SKIES ARE CURRENTLY PARTLY
SUNNY ACRS SE VA/NE NC AND MAINLY CLOUDY OVER N/NW 1/2 OF THE CWA.

FOR THIS AFTN...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING OF
POPS...GENLY SLOWING DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE HIGHER POPS BY ABOUT
2 HRS...JUST A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER FAR W/SW
ZONES PRIOR TO 18Z...GRADUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE FROM 18-21Z
WITH TSTMS ALSO DEVELOPING. WILL BRING LIKELY POPS INTO MOST OF
SCENTRAL VA/INTERIOR NE NC AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL VA BY 20-21Z.
THIS IS WHERE BEST FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE SITUATED.
FARTHER N/E AND AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF SE VA/NE NC//ERN VA
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AND POPS WILL AVG
20-30% PRIOR TO 21Z. LOCALLY HEAVY RA...AND GUSTY WINDS (SUB-
SVR) THE MAIN THREATS FM ANY STORMS. HIGHS RANGE FROM THE UPPER
80S INTERIOR SE VA/NE NC...TO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ACRS THE
NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE INTO THE CNTRL MTNS TNGT. MDLS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL PUSH INTO SW
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS EVE...THEN SLOWLY SPREAD N/NE OVERNIGHT
INTO MON. THIS WILL SUPPORT HI CHC TO LIKELY POPS ONCE AGAIN ACRS
MOST OF THE CWA (WILL KEEP POPS A LITTLE LOWER ALG THE CST).
LOCALLYHEAVY RA AGN PSBL W/ ANY SHRAS/STORMS. MOST LO TEMPS SUN
NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS
TRANSITIONING A BIT TO THE N AND W AS UPR LVL LO SLOLY EXITS THE
CNTRL APPALACHIANS. HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S NW TO THE U80S/ARND 90F
SE. FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER...BUT WARMER BY TUE...WITH JUST
20-30% POPS MNLY IN THE AFTN/EVE WITH HI TEMPS FM THE M80S RIGHT
AT THE CST TO THE L90S ELSW.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH TUE WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL
VA TO INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF 1/2 INCH OR LESS OVR
MOST OF ERN VA TO THE LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LOCALLY MUCH
HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO
MOVING OR REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN
HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE COMING WEEK AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE SERN
U.S. AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT FRI/SAT.
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...FRNTL BNDRY WAS LAYING ACRS SRN VA...WITH JUST
ISLTD SHOWERS OVR SCNTRL/SE VA AND NE NC. THAT FRONT WILL LIFT
BACK N ACRS THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTN INTO MON. EXPECT
IFR CONDITIONS AT SBY AND POSSIBLY RIC EARLY THIS MORNG...THEN
MAINLY MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z-14Z. MORE SCTD SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WILL RETURN FOR LATER THIS AFTN INTO MON...DUE TO FRNTL
BNDRY LIFTING THRU THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE N OF THE REGION
MON NGT/TUE MORNG...WITH A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED
FOR TUE INTO WED. ISLTD LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU MON NGT. A FRNTL BNDRY
THAT WAS LAYING ACRS SRN VA EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL LIFT BACK N
ACRS THE REGION AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTN INTO MON. NNE
WINDS OR WSW WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT EARLY TODAY...WILL TURN TO THE
SE OR S FOR TNGT THRU MON. WINDS WILL THEN BE SSW AOB 15 KT
TUE/WED IN ADVANCE OF NEXT COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
2-4 FT THRU MIDWEEK...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT ON THE CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 051548
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1148 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN VIRGINIA WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT NORTH
LATER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES NORTH OF THE
AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOMING MORE WIDELY SCATTERED. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MORNING ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARLY
STATIONARY AND ALIGNED W-E ACRS SOUTHERN VA. ALOFT...CAN SEE
CLOSED UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER KY/TN ON WV SATELLITE...ALLOWING H5 FLOW
TO SHIFT MORE TO THE S/SW ACRS THE MID ATLC. SKIES ARE CURRENTLY PARTLY
SUNNY ACRS SE VA/NE NC AND MAINLY CLOUDY OVER N/NW 1/2 OF THE CWA.

FOR THIS AFTN...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING OF
POPS...GENLY SLOWING DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE HIGHER POPS BY ABOUT
2 HRS...JUST A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER FAR W/SW
ZONES PRIOR TO 18Z...GRADUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE FROM 18-21Z
WITH TSTMS ALSO DEVELOPING. WILL BRING LIKELY POPS INTO MOST OF
SCENTRAL VA/INTERIOR NE NC AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL VA BY 20-21Z.
THIS IS WHERE BEST FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE SITUATED.
FARTHER N/E AND AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF SE VA/NE NC//ERN VA
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AND POPS WILL AVG
20-30% PRIOR TO 21Z. LOCALLY HEAVY RA...AND GUSTY WINDS (SUB-
SVR) THE MAIN THREATS FM ANY STORMS. HIGHS RANGE FROM THE UPPER
80S INTERIOR SE VA/NE NC...TO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ACRS THE
NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE INTO THE CNTRL MTNS TNGT. MDLS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL PUSH INTO SW
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS EVE...THEN SLOWLY SPREAD N/NE OVERNIGHT
INTO MON. THIS WILL SUPPORT HI CHC TO LIKELY POPS ONCE AGAIN ACRS
MOST OF THE CWA (WILL KEEP POPS A LITTLE LOWER ALG THE CST).
LOCALLYHEAVY RA AGN PSBL W/ ANY SHRAS/STORMS. MOST LO TEMPS SUN
NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS
TRANSITIONING A BIT TO THE N AND W AS UPR LVL LO SLOLY EXITS THE
CNTRL APPALACHIANS. HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S NW TO THE U80S/ARND 90F
SE. FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER...BUT WARMER BY TUE...WITH JUST
20-30% POPS MNLY IN THE AFTN/EVE WITH HI TEMPS FM THE M80S RIGHT
AT THE CST TO THE L90S ELSW.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH TUE WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL
VA TO INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF 1/2 INCH OR LESS OVR
MOST OF ERN VA TO THE LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LOCALLY MUCH
HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO
MOVING OR REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN
HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE COMING WEEK AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE SERN
U.S. AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT FRI/SAT.
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...FRNTL BNDRY WAS LAYING ACRS SRN VA...WITH JUST
ISLTD SHOWERS OVR SCNTRL/SE VA AND NE NC. THAT FRONT WILL LIFT
BACK N ACRS THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTN INTO MON. EXPECT
IFR CONDITIONS AT SBY AND POSSIBLY RIC EARLY THIS MORNG...THEN
MAINLY MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z-14Z. MORE SCTD SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WILL RETURN FOR LATER THIS AFTN INTO MON...DUE TO FRNTL
BNDRY LIFTING THRU THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE N OF THE REGION
MON NGT/TUE MORNG...WITH A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED
FOR TUE INTO WED. ISLTD LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU MON NGT. A FRNTL BNDRY
THAT WAS LAYING ACRS SRN VA EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL LIFT BACK N
ACRS THE REGION AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTN INTO MON. NNE
WINDS OR WSW WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT EARLY TODAY...WILL TURN TO THE
SE OR S FOR TNGT THRU MON. WINDS WILL THEN BE SSW AOB 15 KT
TUE/WED IN ADVANCE OF NEXT COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
2-4 FT THRU MIDWEEK...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT ON THE CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 051548
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1148 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN VIRGINIA WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT NORTH
LATER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES NORTH OF THE
AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOMING MORE WIDELY SCATTERED. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MORNING ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARLY
STATIONARY AND ALIGNED W-E ACRS SOUTHERN VA. ALOFT...CAN SEE
CLOSED UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER KY/TN ON WV SATELLITE...ALLOWING H5 FLOW
TO SHIFT MORE TO THE S/SW ACRS THE MID ATLC. SKIES ARE CURRENTLY PARTLY
SUNNY ACRS SE VA/NE NC AND MAINLY CLOUDY OVER N/NW 1/2 OF THE CWA.

FOR THIS AFTN...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING OF
POPS...GENLY SLOWING DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE HIGHER POPS BY ABOUT
2 HRS...JUST A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER FAR W/SW
ZONES PRIOR TO 18Z...GRADUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE FROM 18-21Z
WITH TSTMS ALSO DEVELOPING. WILL BRING LIKELY POPS INTO MOST OF
SCENTRAL VA/INTERIOR NE NC AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL VA BY 20-21Z.
THIS IS WHERE BEST FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE SITUATED.
FARTHER N/E AND AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF SE VA/NE NC//ERN VA
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AND POPS WILL AVG
20-30% PRIOR TO 21Z. LOCALLY HEAVY RA...AND GUSTY WINDS (SUB-
SVR) THE MAIN THREATS FM ANY STORMS. HIGHS RANGE FROM THE UPPER
80S INTERIOR SE VA/NE NC...TO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ACRS THE
NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE INTO THE CNTRL MTNS TNGT. MDLS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL PUSH INTO SW
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS EVE...THEN SLOWLY SPREAD N/NE OVERNIGHT
INTO MON. THIS WILL SUPPORT HI CHC TO LIKELY POPS ONCE AGAIN ACRS
MOST OF THE CWA (WILL KEEP POPS A LITTLE LOWER ALG THE CST).
LOCALLYHEAVY RA AGN PSBL W/ ANY SHRAS/STORMS. MOST LO TEMPS SUN
NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS
TRANSITIONING A BIT TO THE N AND W AS UPR LVL LO SLOLY EXITS THE
CNTRL APPALACHIANS. HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S NW TO THE U80S/ARND 90F
SE. FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER...BUT WARMER BY TUE...WITH JUST
20-30% POPS MNLY IN THE AFTN/EVE WITH HI TEMPS FM THE M80S RIGHT
AT THE CST TO THE L90S ELSW.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH TUE WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL
VA TO INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF 1/2 INCH OR LESS OVR
MOST OF ERN VA TO THE LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LOCALLY MUCH
HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO
MOVING OR REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN
HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE COMING WEEK AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE SERN
U.S. AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT FRI/SAT.
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...FRNTL BNDRY WAS LAYING ACRS SRN VA...WITH JUST
ISLTD SHOWERS OVR SCNTRL/SE VA AND NE NC. THAT FRONT WILL LIFT
BACK N ACRS THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTN INTO MON. EXPECT
IFR CONDITIONS AT SBY AND POSSIBLY RIC EARLY THIS MORNG...THEN
MAINLY MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z-14Z. MORE SCTD SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WILL RETURN FOR LATER THIS AFTN INTO MON...DUE TO FRNTL
BNDRY LIFTING THRU THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE N OF THE REGION
MON NGT/TUE MORNG...WITH A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED
FOR TUE INTO WED. ISLTD LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU MON NGT. A FRNTL BNDRY
THAT WAS LAYING ACRS SRN VA EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL LIFT BACK N
ACRS THE REGION AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTN INTO MON. NNE
WINDS OR WSW WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT EARLY TODAY...WILL TURN TO THE
SE OR S FOR TNGT THRU MON. WINDS WILL THEN BE SSW AOB 15 KT
TUE/WED IN ADVANCE OF NEXT COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
2-4 FT THRU MIDWEEK...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT ON THE CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG


  [top]

000
FXUS61 KLWX 051445
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1045 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA SHIFTS EAST. THE
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY...THEN STALL AND
SLOWLY DISSIPATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REMAINDER OF THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 10
AM. PATCHES OF FOG STILL NOTICABLE VIA 14Z OBS IN THE
PIEDMONT...BUT VIS 3 MILES OR GREATER.

14Z VIS SAT SHOWS CENTER OF SFC LOW OVER TN/KY...SLOWLY PUSHING TO
THE NORTH AND EAST. NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EAST FROM LOW
ACROSS SOUTHERN VA. THE LOW WILL TRAVERSE THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. LIGHT RETURNS ALREADY SHOWING UP ON LATEST
RADAR REFLECTIVITY...WITH PCPN EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CWA BY THIS AFTN. THE PCPN WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION...MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTN
AND EARLY OVERNIGHT...THEN THE REMAINING PORTIONS OF THE AREA THRU
THE NIGHT WITH THE COMBINATION OF SFC FORCING WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT. SCT-NUM SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. WITH INCREASING PWATS...SOME
OF THE STORMS COULD BRING HEAVIER RAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
MONDAY...SOME RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER EAST FROM THE BLUE RIDGE AS
UPR LOW IS ANCHORED OVER THE ALLEGHENIES. LIMITED INSTABILITY
SHOULD EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A MARGINAL RISK...THOUGH IT IS NOT
OFFICIALLY ONE IN THE DAY 2 OUTLOOK FROM SPC. WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. HEAVY RAIN THREAT ALSO WITH
PWATS AROUND 2 INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT OUT MONDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS RESULTING
FROM IT COULD LINGER INTO TUE IF THE LOW IS SLOW...BUT NOT
EXPECTING THAT AT THIS TIME AND HAVE MINIMIZED POPS FOR TUE DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE LOW. THE NEXT WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION WED...BUT ONLY CHANCE POPS ON WED WITH THAT. WITH THE FRONT
STALLING AND WASHING OUT THU THRU SAT...MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
DURING THAT PERIOD. TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD...ONLY WAVERING A FEW DEGREES FROM DAY TO DAY. TYPICAL JULY
WEATHER IN THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING THIS MORNING...WITH VIS NOW 3-5 MILES
DUE TO LINGERING FOG. CIGS ALL OVER...RANGING FROM LIFR TO VFR.
EXPECTING ALL SITES TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY 16-18Z WITH WARMING. FOG
SHOULD ALL BE DISSIPATED BY 16/17Z AS WELL. VFR CONDITIONS THEN
THIS AFTN. CHC TSTM AT KCHO/KMRB COULD BRING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
INCRSG CHC OF PCPN TONIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES...WHICH WILL BRING YET
AGAIN A CHC OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

OTHER THAN TSTMS...NO AVIATION CONCERNS TUE THRU SATURDAY. WINDS
LIGHT...BELOW 10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT ELY FLOW TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM PA. SELY FLOW
AROUND 10 KT TONIGHT...SHIFTING S MONDAY. SLY CHANNELING POSSIBLE BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR SRN MD WATER SCA
TOWARD MONDAY EVENING.

OTHER THAN TSTMS...NO MARINE CONCERNS TUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/CAS
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...CAS
AVIATION...SEARS/CAS
MARINE...BAJ/CAS



000
FXUS61 KLWX 051445
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1045 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA SHIFTS EAST. THE
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY...THEN STALL AND
SLOWLY DISSIPATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REMAINDER OF THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 10
AM. PATCHES OF FOG STILL NOTICABLE VIA 14Z OBS IN THE
PIEDMONT...BUT VIS 3 MILES OR GREATER.

14Z VIS SAT SHOWS CENTER OF SFC LOW OVER TN/KY...SLOWLY PUSHING TO
THE NORTH AND EAST. NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EAST FROM LOW
ACROSS SOUTHERN VA. THE LOW WILL TRAVERSE THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. LIGHT RETURNS ALREADY SHOWING UP ON LATEST
RADAR REFLECTIVITY...WITH PCPN EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CWA BY THIS AFTN. THE PCPN WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION...MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTN
AND EARLY OVERNIGHT...THEN THE REMAINING PORTIONS OF THE AREA THRU
THE NIGHT WITH THE COMBINATION OF SFC FORCING WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT. SCT-NUM SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. WITH INCREASING PWATS...SOME
OF THE STORMS COULD BRING HEAVIER RAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
MONDAY...SOME RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER EAST FROM THE BLUE RIDGE AS
UPR LOW IS ANCHORED OVER THE ALLEGHENIES. LIMITED INSTABILITY
SHOULD EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A MARGINAL RISK...THOUGH IT IS NOT
OFFICIALLY ONE IN THE DAY 2 OUTLOOK FROM SPC. WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. HEAVY RAIN THREAT ALSO WITH
PWATS AROUND 2 INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT OUT MONDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS RESULTING
FROM IT COULD LINGER INTO TUE IF THE LOW IS SLOW...BUT NOT
EXPECTING THAT AT THIS TIME AND HAVE MINIMIZED POPS FOR TUE DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE LOW. THE NEXT WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION WED...BUT ONLY CHANCE POPS ON WED WITH THAT. WITH THE FRONT
STALLING AND WASHING OUT THU THRU SAT...MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
DURING THAT PERIOD. TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD...ONLY WAVERING A FEW DEGREES FROM DAY TO DAY. TYPICAL JULY
WEATHER IN THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING THIS MORNING...WITH VIS NOW 3-5 MILES
DUE TO LINGERING FOG. CIGS ALL OVER...RANGING FROM LIFR TO VFR.
EXPECTING ALL SITES TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY 16-18Z WITH WARMING. FOG
SHOULD ALL BE DISSIPATED BY 16/17Z AS WELL. VFR CONDITIONS THEN
THIS AFTN. CHC TSTM AT KCHO/KMRB COULD BRING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
INCRSG CHC OF PCPN TONIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES...WHICH WILL BRING YET
AGAIN A CHC OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

OTHER THAN TSTMS...NO AVIATION CONCERNS TUE THRU SATURDAY. WINDS
LIGHT...BELOW 10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT ELY FLOW TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM PA. SELY FLOW
AROUND 10 KT TONIGHT...SHIFTING S MONDAY. SLY CHANNELING POSSIBLE BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR SRN MD WATER SCA
TOWARD MONDAY EVENING.

OTHER THAN TSTMS...NO MARINE CONCERNS TUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/CAS
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...CAS
AVIATION...SEARS/CAS
MARINE...BAJ/CAS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 051352
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
952 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY FROM EAST TENNESSEE TODAY TOWARD
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY LATE MONDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY...THEN
STALL AND LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 952 AM EDT SUNDAY...

FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FAR WEST THROUGH TONIGHT.
THIS MORNING 12Z RNK SOUNDING SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN WITH S-SW FLOW AND INCREASED PWATS AT 1.5 INCH. FFG IS
RELATIVELY LOWER IN THE FAR WEST.

MODIFIED POPS AND PRECIPITATION TOWARDS RADAR TRENDS THIS
MORNING...THEN LEANED TOWARDS HRRR SOLUTION FOR LATE MORNING INTO
THIS AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL...TRIMMED BACK POPS IN THE EAST THIS
MORNING. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES WITH LATEST SURFACE OBS AND
BLENDED TOWARDS ADJMAV...WHICH SEEMED TO CAPTURE COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS. MORE CHANGES LATER TODAY...

AS OF 515 AM EDT SUNDAY...

A CLOSED LOW WILL BE SPLITTING OFF FROM THE MEAN TROF AND SLOWLY
MOVING OVER THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE AREA UP
FOR SOME WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND DEEP E/SE
FLOW WITH GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT GENERATING PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES APPROACHING TWO INCHES. THANKFULLY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE
NOT AS WET AS THEY COULD HAVE BEEN AND THE MOST VULNERABLE AREAS TO
HYDRO CONCERNS ARE FROM THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION UP THROUGH
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...SO A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR
THOSE COUNTIES FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT.

AS THE LOW SPINS SLOWLY TO OUR WEST...WE WILL SEE A BIT OF A DRY SOT
WORK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SEVERAL MODELS ARE QUITE AGGRESSIVE WITH
SHUTTING DOWN THE PRECIPITATION QUICKLY BUT WITH A CLOSED LOW AND
DECENT SYNOPTIC SUPPORT IN PLACE WILL SHADE THINGS TOWARD THE
SLOWER/WETTER SOLUTIONS.

WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED WE SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES TODAY JUST A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH
LOW/MID 80S EAST TO LOW/MID 70S WEST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY
BE 65 TO 70 EAST...WITH 60 TO 65 WEST.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT SUNDAY...

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE NEAR THE VA/WV/KY BORDER INTERSECTION AT
12Z MON...DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN PA BY EVENING. THE
WARM ADVECTION AND HEAVIEST PART OF THE RAINFALL SHOULD BE LIFTING
TOWARD THE I-64 CORRIDOR AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD...THEN INTO
NORTHERN VA/WV BY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS IT DOES SO...A BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL DEVELOP ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. SOMEWHAT OF A
DRY SLOT IS EVIDENT WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE PIEDMONT AND AREAS
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS
DURING THE MORNING SHOULD FOCUS MORE TOWARD THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PART OF THE CWA BY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN THESE AREAS AFTER SUNSET. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN DURING THE DAY SHOULD FALL ROUGHLY NEAR THE I-77 AND
I-64 CORRIDORS WITH THE COMBINED EFFECT OF WARM ADVECTION RAINFALL
EARLY IN THE EVENT...TRANSITIONING TO DEFORMATION RAINFALL WEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO A FEW
SPOTTY SHOWERS ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH AN
ANTICIPATED DRY SLOT IN THAT REGION. WILL HOLD ONTO LIKELY POPS
ACROSS WEST MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH POPS DECREASING INTO THE SLIGHT
CHANCE CATEGORY NC COUNTIES BY EVENING. QPF AFT 12Z SHOULD RANGE
FROM 3/4 INCH IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TO 1/4 INCH IN THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA. THIS RAINFALL SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO
EXACERBATE ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
EVALUATE IF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL NEED TO CONTINUE BEYOND THE
CURRENT 10Z MON EXPIRATION.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL HAVE MOVED FAR ENOUGH NORTH
AWAY FROM THE AREA...AS WELL AS SHEARING OUT...THAT ANY ASSOCIATED
RAINFALL ACROSS OUR REGION SHOULD HAVE ENDED. LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY DRIZZLE MAY LINGER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BUT NO
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

FOR TUESDAY...PROGRESSIVE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES WILL
QUICKLY PUSH A NEW FRONTAL ZONE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK UPPER TROUGH
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. LINEAR ORIENTED...POTENTIALLY
STRONG CONVECTION...APPEARS LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY REACH WESTERN WV/FAR SOUTHWEST VA AND THEN DIMINISH AS
IT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE LESS FAVORABLE
EVENING HOURS. THIS AGREES WELL WITH THE MARGINAL RISK SPC HAS
ADVERTISED ON DAY 3 ENDING JUST SHY OF OUR WESTERN BORDER.
OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY SHOULD OFFER A MINIMUM OF
PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CWA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. HAVE GENERALLY ADVERTISED ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH A WARM...MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE...BUT DYNAMICS WILL BE LIMITED AT BEST.

WEDNESDAY HAS BECOME MORE PROBLEMATIC TODAY AMONG THE MODELS THAN
INDICATED YESTERDAY AS A RESULT OF INCREASED SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS ALLOWS THE TUESDAY FRONT TO
DRIFT INTO THE CWA AND THEN LIFT BACK NORTH. IT SHOULD LINGER LONG
ENOUGH IN THE REGION WEDNESDAY TO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
IF NOT NUMEROUS CONVECTION DURING AFTERNOON HEATING.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN. HOWEVER...EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE SOME INSOLATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WE
SHOULD SEE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THOSE AREAS.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FINALLY REACH ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS IN MUCH OF
THE CWA TUESDAY WITH INCREASED AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AND SOUTHWEST
SURFACE FLOW. WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES CLOSER
TO NORMAL AGAIN WEDNESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...THANKS TO CONTINUED HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT SUNDAY...

EXTENDED PERIOD TRENDING WARMER...BUT STILL SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED.
MODELS...TO VARYING DEGREES...ADVERTISING AN INTENSIFYING UPPER
RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE
GFS/CANADIAN ARE STRONGEST WITH THE UPPER RIDGE...THE ECMWF IS THE
WEAKEST...KEEPING A MORE ACTIVE WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
AT ANY RATE...INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER THAN IN RECENT DAYS.
AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THURSDAY SHOULD OFFER THE BEST
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME
MORE UNFAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED CONVECTION THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER RIDGING TAKING HOLD OF
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. THIS SHOULD PUSH THE MORE ACTIVE
BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO OH/PA/MD/NJ. WILL NEED TO WATCH LATER TRENDS
OF THE MODELS TO MAKE SURE THIS TREND CONTINUES...AS OPPOSED TO
SHIFTING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE FURTHER SOUTH AND WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...SHOULD THE UPPER RIDGE DRIFT FURTHER WEST AND REMAIN
LESS AMPLIFIED THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED.

WITH THE UPPER RIDGING...WE WILL HAVE TO START TALKING ABOUT HIGHS
IN THE 90S AGAIN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH
WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70...SO WILL NEED TO WATCH APPARENT TEMPERATURES
IN THOSE AREAS TOWARD MID-WEEK. NEEDLESS TO SAY...TEMPERATURES APPEAR
DESTINED TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT SUNDAY...

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. AN
WEAK CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN
TN VALLEY TOWARD WESTERN PA THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
SYSTEM...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE AND DURATION ACROSS THE WESTERN
SITES...INCLUDING KLWB AND KBLF. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO PIEDMONT AREAS WHERE SOME HEATING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON LEADING TO ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT ISOLD TSRA. FOR
NOW...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED TSRA AT KDAN.

LOW CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE TAF
VALID PERIOD AS AN EASTERLY FLOW EVOLVES IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER
LOW TRACKING TO OUR WEST. CIGS WILL LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND MVFR-IFR RANGE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN SPREADING INTO THE AREA HELPING TO
LOWER THE CIGS FURTHER BY AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO THE IFR CATEGORY
MOST AREAS...PERHAPS EVEN LIFR BCB/BLF/LWB. AT THIS POINT...RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA BY 18Z...LINGERING IN
THE WEST THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. LOW
CLOUDS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY LINGER IN THE EAST
OVERNIGHT AFTER THE HEAVIER RAIN DRIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA.

WINDS ENE-ESE THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD 4-7KTS...EXCEPT
SE AT BLF IN THE SAME SPEED RANGE.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN TSRA POTENTIAL THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION THROUGH THE
TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDOWS
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR VFR CONDITIONS INCREASE TUE. UPPER LOW/TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PA BY MONDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE...A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE OH VALLEY BY WED. THIS LEAVES A VERY
UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. TUE THROUGH THE DAY OFFERS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERAL
HOURS OF VFR...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH
IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR-
VFR OUTSIDE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ007-009-010-012.
NC...NONE.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ042-043-507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK/MBS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...PM/RAB
AVIATION...AMS/MBS/RAB



000
FXUS61 KRNK 051352
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
952 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY FROM EAST TENNESSEE TODAY TOWARD
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY LATE MONDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY...THEN
STALL AND LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 952 AM EDT SUNDAY...

FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FAR WEST THROUGH TONIGHT.
THIS MORNING 12Z RNK SOUNDING SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN WITH S-SW FLOW AND INCREASED PWATS AT 1.5 INCH. FFG IS
RELATIVELY LOWER IN THE FAR WEST.

MODIFIED POPS AND PRECIPITATION TOWARDS RADAR TRENDS THIS
MORNING...THEN LEANED TOWARDS HRRR SOLUTION FOR LATE MORNING INTO
THIS AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL...TRIMMED BACK POPS IN THE EAST THIS
MORNING. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES WITH LATEST SURFACE OBS AND
BLENDED TOWARDS ADJMAV...WHICH SEEMED TO CAPTURE COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS. MORE CHANGES LATER TODAY...

AS OF 515 AM EDT SUNDAY...

A CLOSED LOW WILL BE SPLITTING OFF FROM THE MEAN TROF AND SLOWLY
MOVING OVER THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE AREA UP
FOR SOME WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND DEEP E/SE
FLOW WITH GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT GENERATING PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES APPROACHING TWO INCHES. THANKFULLY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE
NOT AS WET AS THEY COULD HAVE BEEN AND THE MOST VULNERABLE AREAS TO
HYDRO CONCERNS ARE FROM THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION UP THROUGH
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...SO A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR
THOSE COUNTIES FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT.

AS THE LOW SPINS SLOWLY TO OUR WEST...WE WILL SEE A BIT OF A DRY SOT
WORK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SEVERAL MODELS ARE QUITE AGGRESSIVE WITH
SHUTTING DOWN THE PRECIPITATION QUICKLY BUT WITH A CLOSED LOW AND
DECENT SYNOPTIC SUPPORT IN PLACE WILL SHADE THINGS TOWARD THE
SLOWER/WETTER SOLUTIONS.

WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED WE SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES TODAY JUST A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH
LOW/MID 80S EAST TO LOW/MID 70S WEST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY
BE 65 TO 70 EAST...WITH 60 TO 65 WEST.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT SUNDAY...

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE NEAR THE VA/WV/KY BORDER INTERSECTION AT
12Z MON...DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN PA BY EVENING. THE
WARM ADVECTION AND HEAVIEST PART OF THE RAINFALL SHOULD BE LIFTING
TOWARD THE I-64 CORRIDOR AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD...THEN INTO
NORTHERN VA/WV BY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS IT DOES SO...A BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL DEVELOP ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. SOMEWHAT OF A
DRY SLOT IS EVIDENT WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE PIEDMONT AND AREAS
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS
DURING THE MORNING SHOULD FOCUS MORE TOWARD THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PART OF THE CWA BY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN THESE AREAS AFTER SUNSET. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN DURING THE DAY SHOULD FALL ROUGHLY NEAR THE I-77 AND
I-64 CORRIDORS WITH THE COMBINED EFFECT OF WARM ADVECTION RAINFALL
EARLY IN THE EVENT...TRANSITIONING TO DEFORMATION RAINFALL WEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO A FEW
SPOTTY SHOWERS ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH AN
ANTICIPATED DRY SLOT IN THAT REGION. WILL HOLD ONTO LIKELY POPS
ACROSS WEST MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH POPS DECREASING INTO THE SLIGHT
CHANCE CATEGORY NC COUNTIES BY EVENING. QPF AFT 12Z SHOULD RANGE
FROM 3/4 INCH IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TO 1/4 INCH IN THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA. THIS RAINFALL SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO
EXACERBATE ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
EVALUATE IF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL NEED TO CONTINUE BEYOND THE
CURRENT 10Z MON EXPIRATION.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL HAVE MOVED FAR ENOUGH NORTH
AWAY FROM THE AREA...AS WELL AS SHEARING OUT...THAT ANY ASSOCIATED
RAINFALL ACROSS OUR REGION SHOULD HAVE ENDED. LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY DRIZZLE MAY LINGER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BUT NO
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

FOR TUESDAY...PROGRESSIVE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES WILL
QUICKLY PUSH A NEW FRONTAL ZONE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK UPPER TROUGH
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. LINEAR ORIENTED...POTENTIALLY
STRONG CONVECTION...APPEARS LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY REACH WESTERN WV/FAR SOUTHWEST VA AND THEN DIMINISH AS
IT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE LESS FAVORABLE
EVENING HOURS. THIS AGREES WELL WITH THE MARGINAL RISK SPC HAS
ADVERTISED ON DAY 3 ENDING JUST SHY OF OUR WESTERN BORDER.
OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY SHOULD OFFER A MINIMUM OF
PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CWA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. HAVE GENERALLY ADVERTISED ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH A WARM...MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE...BUT DYNAMICS WILL BE LIMITED AT BEST.

WEDNESDAY HAS BECOME MORE PROBLEMATIC TODAY AMONG THE MODELS THAN
INDICATED YESTERDAY AS A RESULT OF INCREASED SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS ALLOWS THE TUESDAY FRONT TO
DRIFT INTO THE CWA AND THEN LIFT BACK NORTH. IT SHOULD LINGER LONG
ENOUGH IN THE REGION WEDNESDAY TO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
IF NOT NUMEROUS CONVECTION DURING AFTERNOON HEATING.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN. HOWEVER...EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE SOME INSOLATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WE
SHOULD SEE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THOSE AREAS.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FINALLY REACH ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS IN MUCH OF
THE CWA TUESDAY WITH INCREASED AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AND SOUTHWEST
SURFACE FLOW. WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES CLOSER
TO NORMAL AGAIN WEDNESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...THANKS TO CONTINUED HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT SUNDAY...

EXTENDED PERIOD TRENDING WARMER...BUT STILL SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED.
MODELS...TO VARYING DEGREES...ADVERTISING AN INTENSIFYING UPPER
RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE
GFS/CANADIAN ARE STRONGEST WITH THE UPPER RIDGE...THE ECMWF IS THE
WEAKEST...KEEPING A MORE ACTIVE WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
AT ANY RATE...INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER THAN IN RECENT DAYS.
AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THURSDAY SHOULD OFFER THE BEST
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME
MORE UNFAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED CONVECTION THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER RIDGING TAKING HOLD OF
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. THIS SHOULD PUSH THE MORE ACTIVE
BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO OH/PA/MD/NJ. WILL NEED TO WATCH LATER TRENDS
OF THE MODELS TO MAKE SURE THIS TREND CONTINUES...AS OPPOSED TO
SHIFTING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE FURTHER SOUTH AND WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...SHOULD THE UPPER RIDGE DRIFT FURTHER WEST AND REMAIN
LESS AMPLIFIED THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED.

WITH THE UPPER RIDGING...WE WILL HAVE TO START TALKING ABOUT HIGHS
IN THE 90S AGAIN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH
WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70...SO WILL NEED TO WATCH APPARENT TEMPERATURES
IN THOSE AREAS TOWARD MID-WEEK. NEEDLESS TO SAY...TEMPERATURES APPEAR
DESTINED TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT SUNDAY...

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. AN
WEAK CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN
TN VALLEY TOWARD WESTERN PA THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
SYSTEM...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE AND DURATION ACROSS THE WESTERN
SITES...INCLUDING KLWB AND KBLF. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO PIEDMONT AREAS WHERE SOME HEATING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON LEADING TO ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT ISOLD TSRA. FOR
NOW...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED TSRA AT KDAN.

LOW CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE TAF
VALID PERIOD AS AN EASTERLY FLOW EVOLVES IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER
LOW TRACKING TO OUR WEST. CIGS WILL LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND MVFR-IFR RANGE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN SPREADING INTO THE AREA HELPING TO
LOWER THE CIGS FURTHER BY AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO THE IFR CATEGORY
MOST AREAS...PERHAPS EVEN LIFR BCB/BLF/LWB. AT THIS POINT...RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA BY 18Z...LINGERING IN
THE WEST THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. LOW
CLOUDS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY LINGER IN THE EAST
OVERNIGHT AFTER THE HEAVIER RAIN DRIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA.

WINDS ENE-ESE THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD 4-7KTS...EXCEPT
SE AT BLF IN THE SAME SPEED RANGE.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN TSRA POTENTIAL THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION THROUGH THE
TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDOWS
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR VFR CONDITIONS INCREASE TUE. UPPER LOW/TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PA BY MONDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE...A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE OH VALLEY BY WED. THIS LEAVES A VERY
UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. TUE THROUGH THE DAY OFFERS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERAL
HOURS OF VFR...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH
IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR-
VFR OUTSIDE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ007-009-010-012.
NC...NONE.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ042-043-507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK/MBS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...PM/RAB
AVIATION...AMS/MBS/RAB



000
FXUS61 KRNK 051352
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
952 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY FROM EAST TENNESSEE TODAY TOWARD
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY LATE MONDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY...THEN
STALL AND LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 952 AM EDT SUNDAY...

FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FAR WEST THROUGH TONIGHT.
THIS MORNING 12Z RNK SOUNDING SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN WITH S-SW FLOW AND INCREASED PWATS AT 1.5 INCH. FFG IS
RELATIVELY LOWER IN THE FAR WEST.

MODIFIED POPS AND PRECIPITATION TOWARDS RADAR TRENDS THIS
MORNING...THEN LEANED TOWARDS HRRR SOLUTION FOR LATE MORNING INTO
THIS AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL...TRIMMED BACK POPS IN THE EAST THIS
MORNING. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES WITH LATEST SURFACE OBS AND
BLENDED TOWARDS ADJMAV...WHICH SEEMED TO CAPTURE COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS. MORE CHANGES LATER TODAY...

AS OF 515 AM EDT SUNDAY...

A CLOSED LOW WILL BE SPLITTING OFF FROM THE MEAN TROF AND SLOWLY
MOVING OVER THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE AREA UP
FOR SOME WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND DEEP E/SE
FLOW WITH GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT GENERATING PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES APPROACHING TWO INCHES. THANKFULLY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE
NOT AS WET AS THEY COULD HAVE BEEN AND THE MOST VULNERABLE AREAS TO
HYDRO CONCERNS ARE FROM THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION UP THROUGH
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...SO A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR
THOSE COUNTIES FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT.

AS THE LOW SPINS SLOWLY TO OUR WEST...WE WILL SEE A BIT OF A DRY SOT
WORK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SEVERAL MODELS ARE QUITE AGGRESSIVE WITH
SHUTTING DOWN THE PRECIPITATION QUICKLY BUT WITH A CLOSED LOW AND
DECENT SYNOPTIC SUPPORT IN PLACE WILL SHADE THINGS TOWARD THE
SLOWER/WETTER SOLUTIONS.

WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED WE SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES TODAY JUST A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH
LOW/MID 80S EAST TO LOW/MID 70S WEST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY
BE 65 TO 70 EAST...WITH 60 TO 65 WEST.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT SUNDAY...

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE NEAR THE VA/WV/KY BORDER INTERSECTION AT
12Z MON...DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN PA BY EVENING. THE
WARM ADVECTION AND HEAVIEST PART OF THE RAINFALL SHOULD BE LIFTING
TOWARD THE I-64 CORRIDOR AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD...THEN INTO
NORTHERN VA/WV BY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS IT DOES SO...A BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL DEVELOP ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. SOMEWHAT OF A
DRY SLOT IS EVIDENT WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE PIEDMONT AND AREAS
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS
DURING THE MORNING SHOULD FOCUS MORE TOWARD THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PART OF THE CWA BY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN THESE AREAS AFTER SUNSET. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN DURING THE DAY SHOULD FALL ROUGHLY NEAR THE I-77 AND
I-64 CORRIDORS WITH THE COMBINED EFFECT OF WARM ADVECTION RAINFALL
EARLY IN THE EVENT...TRANSITIONING TO DEFORMATION RAINFALL WEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO A FEW
SPOTTY SHOWERS ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH AN
ANTICIPATED DRY SLOT IN THAT REGION. WILL HOLD ONTO LIKELY POPS
ACROSS WEST MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH POPS DECREASING INTO THE SLIGHT
CHANCE CATEGORY NC COUNTIES BY EVENING. QPF AFT 12Z SHOULD RANGE
FROM 3/4 INCH IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TO 1/4 INCH IN THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA. THIS RAINFALL SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO
EXACERBATE ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
EVALUATE IF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL NEED TO CONTINUE BEYOND THE
CURRENT 10Z MON EXPIRATION.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL HAVE MOVED FAR ENOUGH NORTH
AWAY FROM THE AREA...AS WELL AS SHEARING OUT...THAT ANY ASSOCIATED
RAINFALL ACROSS OUR REGION SHOULD HAVE ENDED. LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY DRIZZLE MAY LINGER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BUT NO
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

FOR TUESDAY...PROGRESSIVE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES WILL
QUICKLY PUSH A NEW FRONTAL ZONE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK UPPER TROUGH
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. LINEAR ORIENTED...POTENTIALLY
STRONG CONVECTION...APPEARS LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY REACH WESTERN WV/FAR SOUTHWEST VA AND THEN DIMINISH AS
IT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE LESS FAVORABLE
EVENING HOURS. THIS AGREES WELL WITH THE MARGINAL RISK SPC HAS
ADVERTISED ON DAY 3 ENDING JUST SHY OF OUR WESTERN BORDER.
OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY SHOULD OFFER A MINIMUM OF
PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CWA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. HAVE GENERALLY ADVERTISED ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH A WARM...MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE...BUT DYNAMICS WILL BE LIMITED AT BEST.

WEDNESDAY HAS BECOME MORE PROBLEMATIC TODAY AMONG THE MODELS THAN
INDICATED YESTERDAY AS A RESULT OF INCREASED SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS ALLOWS THE TUESDAY FRONT TO
DRIFT INTO THE CWA AND THEN LIFT BACK NORTH. IT SHOULD LINGER LONG
ENOUGH IN THE REGION WEDNESDAY TO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
IF NOT NUMEROUS CONVECTION DURING AFTERNOON HEATING.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN. HOWEVER...EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE SOME INSOLATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WE
SHOULD SEE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THOSE AREAS.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FINALLY REACH ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS IN MUCH OF
THE CWA TUESDAY WITH INCREASED AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AND SOUTHWEST
SURFACE FLOW. WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES CLOSER
TO NORMAL AGAIN WEDNESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...THANKS TO CONTINUED HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT SUNDAY...

EXTENDED PERIOD TRENDING WARMER...BUT STILL SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED.
MODELS...TO VARYING DEGREES...ADVERTISING AN INTENSIFYING UPPER
RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE
GFS/CANADIAN ARE STRONGEST WITH THE UPPER RIDGE...THE ECMWF IS THE
WEAKEST...KEEPING A MORE ACTIVE WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
AT ANY RATE...INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER THAN IN RECENT DAYS.
AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THURSDAY SHOULD OFFER THE BEST
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME
MORE UNFAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED CONVECTION THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER RIDGING TAKING HOLD OF
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. THIS SHOULD PUSH THE MORE ACTIVE
BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO OH/PA/MD/NJ. WILL NEED TO WATCH LATER TRENDS
OF THE MODELS TO MAKE SURE THIS TREND CONTINUES...AS OPPOSED TO
SHIFTING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE FURTHER SOUTH AND WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...SHOULD THE UPPER RIDGE DRIFT FURTHER WEST AND REMAIN
LESS AMPLIFIED THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED.

WITH THE UPPER RIDGING...WE WILL HAVE TO START TALKING ABOUT HIGHS
IN THE 90S AGAIN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH
WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70...SO WILL NEED TO WATCH APPARENT TEMPERATURES
IN THOSE AREAS TOWARD MID-WEEK. NEEDLESS TO SAY...TEMPERATURES APPEAR
DESTINED TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT SUNDAY...

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. AN
WEAK CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN
TN VALLEY TOWARD WESTERN PA THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
SYSTEM...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE AND DURATION ACROSS THE WESTERN
SITES...INCLUDING KLWB AND KBLF. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO PIEDMONT AREAS WHERE SOME HEATING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON LEADING TO ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT ISOLD TSRA. FOR
NOW...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED TSRA AT KDAN.

LOW CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE TAF
VALID PERIOD AS AN EASTERLY FLOW EVOLVES IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER
LOW TRACKING TO OUR WEST. CIGS WILL LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND MVFR-IFR RANGE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN SPREADING INTO THE AREA HELPING TO
LOWER THE CIGS FURTHER BY AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO THE IFR CATEGORY
MOST AREAS...PERHAPS EVEN LIFR BCB/BLF/LWB. AT THIS POINT...RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA BY 18Z...LINGERING IN
THE WEST THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. LOW
CLOUDS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY LINGER IN THE EAST
OVERNIGHT AFTER THE HEAVIER RAIN DRIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA.

WINDS ENE-ESE THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD 4-7KTS...EXCEPT
SE AT BLF IN THE SAME SPEED RANGE.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN TSRA POTENTIAL THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION THROUGH THE
TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDOWS
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR VFR CONDITIONS INCREASE TUE. UPPER LOW/TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PA BY MONDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE...A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE OH VALLEY BY WED. THIS LEAVES A VERY
UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. TUE THROUGH THE DAY OFFERS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERAL
HOURS OF VFR...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH
IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR-
VFR OUTSIDE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ007-009-010-012.
NC...NONE.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ042-043-507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK/MBS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...PM/RAB
AVIATION...AMS/MBS/RAB



000
FXUS61 KRNK 051352
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
952 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY FROM EAST TENNESSEE TODAY TOWARD
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY LATE MONDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY...THEN
STALL AND LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 952 AM EDT SUNDAY...

FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FAR WEST THROUGH TONIGHT.
THIS MORNING 12Z RNK SOUNDING SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN WITH S-SW FLOW AND INCREASED PWATS AT 1.5 INCH. FFG IS
RELATIVELY LOWER IN THE FAR WEST.

MODIFIED POPS AND PRECIPITATION TOWARDS RADAR TRENDS THIS
MORNING...THEN LEANED TOWARDS HRRR SOLUTION FOR LATE MORNING INTO
THIS AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL...TRIMMED BACK POPS IN THE EAST THIS
MORNING. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES WITH LATEST SURFACE OBS AND
BLENDED TOWARDS ADJMAV...WHICH SEEMED TO CAPTURE COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS. MORE CHANGES LATER TODAY...

AS OF 515 AM EDT SUNDAY...

A CLOSED LOW WILL BE SPLITTING OFF FROM THE MEAN TROF AND SLOWLY
MOVING OVER THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE AREA UP
FOR SOME WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND DEEP E/SE
FLOW WITH GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT GENERATING PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES APPROACHING TWO INCHES. THANKFULLY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE
NOT AS WET AS THEY COULD HAVE BEEN AND THE MOST VULNERABLE AREAS TO
HYDRO CONCERNS ARE FROM THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION UP THROUGH
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...SO A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR
THOSE COUNTIES FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT.

AS THE LOW SPINS SLOWLY TO OUR WEST...WE WILL SEE A BIT OF A DRY SOT
WORK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SEVERAL MODELS ARE QUITE AGGRESSIVE WITH
SHUTTING DOWN THE PRECIPITATION QUICKLY BUT WITH A CLOSED LOW AND
DECENT SYNOPTIC SUPPORT IN PLACE WILL SHADE THINGS TOWARD THE
SLOWER/WETTER SOLUTIONS.

WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED WE SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES TODAY JUST A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH
LOW/MID 80S EAST TO LOW/MID 70S WEST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY
BE 65 TO 70 EAST...WITH 60 TO 65 WEST.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT SUNDAY...

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE NEAR THE VA/WV/KY BORDER INTERSECTION AT
12Z MON...DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN PA BY EVENING. THE
WARM ADVECTION AND HEAVIEST PART OF THE RAINFALL SHOULD BE LIFTING
TOWARD THE I-64 CORRIDOR AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD...THEN INTO
NORTHERN VA/WV BY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS IT DOES SO...A BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL DEVELOP ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. SOMEWHAT OF A
DRY SLOT IS EVIDENT WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE PIEDMONT AND AREAS
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS
DURING THE MORNING SHOULD FOCUS MORE TOWARD THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PART OF THE CWA BY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN THESE AREAS AFTER SUNSET. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN DURING THE DAY SHOULD FALL ROUGHLY NEAR THE I-77 AND
I-64 CORRIDORS WITH THE COMBINED EFFECT OF WARM ADVECTION RAINFALL
EARLY IN THE EVENT...TRANSITIONING TO DEFORMATION RAINFALL WEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO A FEW
SPOTTY SHOWERS ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH AN
ANTICIPATED DRY SLOT IN THAT REGION. WILL HOLD ONTO LIKELY POPS
ACROSS WEST MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH POPS DECREASING INTO THE SLIGHT
CHANCE CATEGORY NC COUNTIES BY EVENING. QPF AFT 12Z SHOULD RANGE
FROM 3/4 INCH IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TO 1/4 INCH IN THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA. THIS RAINFALL SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO
EXACERBATE ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
EVALUATE IF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL NEED TO CONTINUE BEYOND THE
CURRENT 10Z MON EXPIRATION.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL HAVE MOVED FAR ENOUGH NORTH
AWAY FROM THE AREA...AS WELL AS SHEARING OUT...THAT ANY ASSOCIATED
RAINFALL ACROSS OUR REGION SHOULD HAVE ENDED. LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY DRIZZLE MAY LINGER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BUT NO
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

FOR TUESDAY...PROGRESSIVE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES WILL
QUICKLY PUSH A NEW FRONTAL ZONE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK UPPER TROUGH
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. LINEAR ORIENTED...POTENTIALLY
STRONG CONVECTION...APPEARS LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY REACH WESTERN WV/FAR SOUTHWEST VA AND THEN DIMINISH AS
IT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE LESS FAVORABLE
EVENING HOURS. THIS AGREES WELL WITH THE MARGINAL RISK SPC HAS
ADVERTISED ON DAY 3 ENDING JUST SHY OF OUR WESTERN BORDER.
OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY SHOULD OFFER A MINIMUM OF
PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CWA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. HAVE GENERALLY ADVERTISED ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH A WARM...MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE...BUT DYNAMICS WILL BE LIMITED AT BEST.

WEDNESDAY HAS BECOME MORE PROBLEMATIC TODAY AMONG THE MODELS THAN
INDICATED YESTERDAY AS A RESULT OF INCREASED SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS ALLOWS THE TUESDAY FRONT TO
DRIFT INTO THE CWA AND THEN LIFT BACK NORTH. IT SHOULD LINGER LONG
ENOUGH IN THE REGION WEDNESDAY TO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
IF NOT NUMEROUS CONVECTION DURING AFTERNOON HEATING.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN. HOWEVER...EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE SOME INSOLATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WE
SHOULD SEE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THOSE AREAS.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FINALLY REACH ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS IN MUCH OF
THE CWA TUESDAY WITH INCREASED AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AND SOUTHWEST
SURFACE FLOW. WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES CLOSER
TO NORMAL AGAIN WEDNESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...THANKS TO CONTINUED HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT SUNDAY...

EXTENDED PERIOD TRENDING WARMER...BUT STILL SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED.
MODELS...TO VARYING DEGREES...ADVERTISING AN INTENSIFYING UPPER
RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE
GFS/CANADIAN ARE STRONGEST WITH THE UPPER RIDGE...THE ECMWF IS THE
WEAKEST...KEEPING A MORE ACTIVE WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
AT ANY RATE...INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER THAN IN RECENT DAYS.
AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THURSDAY SHOULD OFFER THE BEST
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME
MORE UNFAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED CONVECTION THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER RIDGING TAKING HOLD OF
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. THIS SHOULD PUSH THE MORE ACTIVE
BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO OH/PA/MD/NJ. WILL NEED TO WATCH LATER TRENDS
OF THE MODELS TO MAKE SURE THIS TREND CONTINUES...AS OPPOSED TO
SHIFTING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE FURTHER SOUTH AND WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...SHOULD THE UPPER RIDGE DRIFT FURTHER WEST AND REMAIN
LESS AMPLIFIED THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED.

WITH THE UPPER RIDGING...WE WILL HAVE TO START TALKING ABOUT HIGHS
IN THE 90S AGAIN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH
WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70...SO WILL NEED TO WATCH APPARENT TEMPERATURES
IN THOSE AREAS TOWARD MID-WEEK. NEEDLESS TO SAY...TEMPERATURES APPEAR
DESTINED TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT SUNDAY...

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. AN
WEAK CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN
TN VALLEY TOWARD WESTERN PA THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
SYSTEM...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE AND DURATION ACROSS THE WESTERN
SITES...INCLUDING KLWB AND KBLF. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO PIEDMONT AREAS WHERE SOME HEATING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON LEADING TO ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT ISOLD TSRA. FOR
NOW...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED TSRA AT KDAN.

LOW CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE TAF
VALID PERIOD AS AN EASTERLY FLOW EVOLVES IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER
LOW TRACKING TO OUR WEST. CIGS WILL LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND MVFR-IFR RANGE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN SPREADING INTO THE AREA HELPING TO
LOWER THE CIGS FURTHER BY AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO THE IFR CATEGORY
MOST AREAS...PERHAPS EVEN LIFR BCB/BLF/LWB. AT THIS POINT...RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA BY 18Z...LINGERING IN
THE WEST THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. LOW
CLOUDS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY LINGER IN THE EAST
OVERNIGHT AFTER THE HEAVIER RAIN DRIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA.

WINDS ENE-ESE THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD 4-7KTS...EXCEPT
SE AT BLF IN THE SAME SPEED RANGE.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN TSRA POTENTIAL THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION THROUGH THE
TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDOWS
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR VFR CONDITIONS INCREASE TUE. UPPER LOW/TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PA BY MONDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE...A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE OH VALLEY BY WED. THIS LEAVES A VERY
UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. TUE THROUGH THE DAY OFFERS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERAL
HOURS OF VFR...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH
IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR-
VFR OUTSIDE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ007-009-010-012.
NC...NONE.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ042-043-507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK/MBS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...PM/RAB
AVIATION...AMS/MBS/RAB



000
FXUS61 KLWX 051252
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
852 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA SHIFTS EAST. THE
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY...THEN STALL AND
SLOWLY DISSIPATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT
SHENANDOAH VALLEY. VIS IN CANCELLED AREAS HAVE IMPROVED TO AT
LEAST 1 MILE...WITH MOST AREAS 3 MILES OR GREATER. THE FOG WILL
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THRU THE MORNING. EXPECTING THE REMAINING
ZONES TO SEE IMPROVEMENT BY 10 AM.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM PA LATE THIS MORNING. HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKEN A BIT AS THE UPR LOW DRIFTS
TOWARD THE AREA. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTS INTO THE SWRN
ZONES LATER THIS MORNING WITH POPS INCREASING IN ELY FLOW.
HOWEVER...THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT INSOLATION AND THUS THE
INSTABILITY. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN AT LEAST SCATTERED
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

UPR LOW DRIFTS TO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LWX IN
THE WARM SECTOR WITH THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT OVER THE
AREA...PROVIDING CONVERGENT FORCING. POPS ROUGHLY INCREASE AND
SPREAD NE OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH A RAINY
PERIOD THIS EVENING TO MONDAY EVENING FOR MOST OF THE CWA. WITH
LIMITED INSTABILITY...EXPECT MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
MONDAY...SOME RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER EAST FROM THE BLUE RIDGE AS
UPR LOW IS ANCHORED OVER THE ALLEGHENIES. LIMITED INSTABILITY
SHOULD EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A MARGINAL RISK...THOUGH IT IS NOT
OFFICIALLY ONE IN THE DAY 2 OUTLOOK FROM SPC. WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. HEAVY RAIN THREAT ALSO WITH
PWATS AROUND 2 INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT OUT MONDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS RESULTING
FROM IT COULD LINGER INTO TUE IF THE LOW IS SLOW...BUT NOT
EXPECTING THAT AT THIS TIME AND HAVE MINIMIZED POPS FOR TUE DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE LOW. THE NEXT WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION WED...BUT ONLY CHANCE POPS ON WED WITH THAT. WITH THE FRONT
STALLING AND WASHING OUT THU THRU SAT...MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
DURING THAT PERIOD. TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD...ONLY WAVERING A FEW DEGREES FROM DAY TO DAY. TYPICAL JULY
WEATHER IN THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. HOWEVER...LIGHT MIXING AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE KEPT CONDS
MVFR FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN TONIGHT
WITH RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSTMS SHIFT NORTH ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. RAINY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING ACROSS
THE AREA WITH IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIEST ACTIVITY.

OTHER THAN TSTMS...NO AVIATION CONCERNS TUE THRU SATURDAY. WINDS
LIGHT...BELOW 10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT ELY FLOW TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM PA. SELY FLOW
AROUND 10 KT TONIGHT...SHIFTING S MONDAY. SLY CHANNELING POSSIBLE BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR SRN MD WATER SCA
TOWARD MONDAY EVENING.

OTHER THAN TSTMS...NO MARINE CONCERNS TUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ026-027-
     029-030.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/CAS
NEAR TERM...BAJ/SEARS
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...CAS
AVIATION...BAJ/CAS
MARINE...BAJ/CAS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 051252
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
852 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA SHIFTS EAST. THE
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY...THEN STALL AND
SLOWLY DISSIPATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT
SHENANDOAH VALLEY. VIS IN CANCELLED AREAS HAVE IMPROVED TO AT
LEAST 1 MILE...WITH MOST AREAS 3 MILES OR GREATER. THE FOG WILL
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THRU THE MORNING. EXPECTING THE REMAINING
ZONES TO SEE IMPROVEMENT BY 10 AM.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM PA LATE THIS MORNING. HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKEN A BIT AS THE UPR LOW DRIFTS
TOWARD THE AREA. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTS INTO THE SWRN
ZONES LATER THIS MORNING WITH POPS INCREASING IN ELY FLOW.
HOWEVER...THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT INSOLATION AND THUS THE
INSTABILITY. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN AT LEAST SCATTERED
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

UPR LOW DRIFTS TO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LWX IN
THE WARM SECTOR WITH THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT OVER THE
AREA...PROVIDING CONVERGENT FORCING. POPS ROUGHLY INCREASE AND
SPREAD NE OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH A RAINY
PERIOD THIS EVENING TO MONDAY EVENING FOR MOST OF THE CWA. WITH
LIMITED INSTABILITY...EXPECT MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
MONDAY...SOME RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER EAST FROM THE BLUE RIDGE AS
UPR LOW IS ANCHORED OVER THE ALLEGHENIES. LIMITED INSTABILITY
SHOULD EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A MARGINAL RISK...THOUGH IT IS NOT
OFFICIALLY ONE IN THE DAY 2 OUTLOOK FROM SPC. WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. HEAVY RAIN THREAT ALSO WITH
PWATS AROUND 2 INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT OUT MONDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS RESULTING
FROM IT COULD LINGER INTO TUE IF THE LOW IS SLOW...BUT NOT
EXPECTING THAT AT THIS TIME AND HAVE MINIMIZED POPS FOR TUE DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE LOW. THE NEXT WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION WED...BUT ONLY CHANCE POPS ON WED WITH THAT. WITH THE FRONT
STALLING AND WASHING OUT THU THRU SAT...MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
DURING THAT PERIOD. TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD...ONLY WAVERING A FEW DEGREES FROM DAY TO DAY. TYPICAL JULY
WEATHER IN THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. HOWEVER...LIGHT MIXING AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE KEPT CONDS
MVFR FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN TONIGHT
WITH RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSTMS SHIFT NORTH ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. RAINY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING ACROSS
THE AREA WITH IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIEST ACTIVITY.

OTHER THAN TSTMS...NO AVIATION CONCERNS TUE THRU SATURDAY. WINDS
LIGHT...BELOW 10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT ELY FLOW TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM PA. SELY FLOW
AROUND 10 KT TONIGHT...SHIFTING S MONDAY. SLY CHANNELING POSSIBLE BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR SRN MD WATER SCA
TOWARD MONDAY EVENING.

OTHER THAN TSTMS...NO MARINE CONCERNS TUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ026-027-
     029-030.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/CAS
NEAR TERM...BAJ/SEARS
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...CAS
AVIATION...BAJ/CAS
MARINE...BAJ/CAS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 051252
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
852 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA SHIFTS EAST. THE
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY...THEN STALL AND
SLOWLY DISSIPATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT
SHENANDOAH VALLEY. VIS IN CANCELLED AREAS HAVE IMPROVED TO AT
LEAST 1 MILE...WITH MOST AREAS 3 MILES OR GREATER. THE FOG WILL
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THRU THE MORNING. EXPECTING THE REMAINING
ZONES TO SEE IMPROVEMENT BY 10 AM.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM PA LATE THIS MORNING. HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKEN A BIT AS THE UPR LOW DRIFTS
TOWARD THE AREA. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTS INTO THE SWRN
ZONES LATER THIS MORNING WITH POPS INCREASING IN ELY FLOW.
HOWEVER...THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT INSOLATION AND THUS THE
INSTABILITY. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN AT LEAST SCATTERED
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

UPR LOW DRIFTS TO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LWX IN
THE WARM SECTOR WITH THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT OVER THE
AREA...PROVIDING CONVERGENT FORCING. POPS ROUGHLY INCREASE AND
SPREAD NE OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH A RAINY
PERIOD THIS EVENING TO MONDAY EVENING FOR MOST OF THE CWA. WITH
LIMITED INSTABILITY...EXPECT MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
MONDAY...SOME RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER EAST FROM THE BLUE RIDGE AS
UPR LOW IS ANCHORED OVER THE ALLEGHENIES. LIMITED INSTABILITY
SHOULD EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A MARGINAL RISK...THOUGH IT IS NOT
OFFICIALLY ONE IN THE DAY 2 OUTLOOK FROM SPC. WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. HEAVY RAIN THREAT ALSO WITH
PWATS AROUND 2 INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT OUT MONDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS RESULTING
FROM IT COULD LINGER INTO TUE IF THE LOW IS SLOW...BUT NOT
EXPECTING THAT AT THIS TIME AND HAVE MINIMIZED POPS FOR TUE DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE LOW. THE NEXT WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION WED...BUT ONLY CHANCE POPS ON WED WITH THAT. WITH THE FRONT
STALLING AND WASHING OUT THU THRU SAT...MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
DURING THAT PERIOD. TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD...ONLY WAVERING A FEW DEGREES FROM DAY TO DAY. TYPICAL JULY
WEATHER IN THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. HOWEVER...LIGHT MIXING AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE KEPT CONDS
MVFR FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN TONIGHT
WITH RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSTMS SHIFT NORTH ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. RAINY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING ACROSS
THE AREA WITH IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIEST ACTIVITY.

OTHER THAN TSTMS...NO AVIATION CONCERNS TUE THRU SATURDAY. WINDS
LIGHT...BELOW 10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT ELY FLOW TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM PA. SELY FLOW
AROUND 10 KT TONIGHT...SHIFTING S MONDAY. SLY CHANNELING POSSIBLE BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR SRN MD WATER SCA
TOWARD MONDAY EVENING.

OTHER THAN TSTMS...NO MARINE CONCERNS TUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ026-027-
     029-030.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/CAS
NEAR TERM...BAJ/SEARS
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...CAS
AVIATION...BAJ/CAS
MARINE...BAJ/CAS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 051252
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
852 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA SHIFTS EAST. THE
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY...THEN STALL AND
SLOWLY DISSIPATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT
SHENANDOAH VALLEY. VIS IN CANCELLED AREAS HAVE IMPROVED TO AT
LEAST 1 MILE...WITH MOST AREAS 3 MILES OR GREATER. THE FOG WILL
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THRU THE MORNING. EXPECTING THE REMAINING
ZONES TO SEE IMPROVEMENT BY 10 AM.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM PA LATE THIS MORNING. HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKEN A BIT AS THE UPR LOW DRIFTS
TOWARD THE AREA. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTS INTO THE SWRN
ZONES LATER THIS MORNING WITH POPS INCREASING IN ELY FLOW.
HOWEVER...THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT INSOLATION AND THUS THE
INSTABILITY. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN AT LEAST SCATTERED
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

UPR LOW DRIFTS TO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LWX IN
THE WARM SECTOR WITH THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT OVER THE
AREA...PROVIDING CONVERGENT FORCING. POPS ROUGHLY INCREASE AND
SPREAD NE OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH A RAINY
PERIOD THIS EVENING TO MONDAY EVENING FOR MOST OF THE CWA. WITH
LIMITED INSTABILITY...EXPECT MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
MONDAY...SOME RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER EAST FROM THE BLUE RIDGE AS
UPR LOW IS ANCHORED OVER THE ALLEGHENIES. LIMITED INSTABILITY
SHOULD EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A MARGINAL RISK...THOUGH IT IS NOT
OFFICIALLY ONE IN THE DAY 2 OUTLOOK FROM SPC. WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. HEAVY RAIN THREAT ALSO WITH
PWATS AROUND 2 INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT OUT MONDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS RESULTING
FROM IT COULD LINGER INTO TUE IF THE LOW IS SLOW...BUT NOT
EXPECTING THAT AT THIS TIME AND HAVE MINIMIZED POPS FOR TUE DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE LOW. THE NEXT WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION WED...BUT ONLY CHANCE POPS ON WED WITH THAT. WITH THE FRONT
STALLING AND WASHING OUT THU THRU SAT...MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
DURING THAT PERIOD. TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD...ONLY WAVERING A FEW DEGREES FROM DAY TO DAY. TYPICAL JULY
WEATHER IN THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. HOWEVER...LIGHT MIXING AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE KEPT CONDS
MVFR FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN TONIGHT
WITH RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSTMS SHIFT NORTH ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. RAINY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING ACROSS
THE AREA WITH IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIEST ACTIVITY.

OTHER THAN TSTMS...NO AVIATION CONCERNS TUE THRU SATURDAY. WINDS
LIGHT...BELOW 10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT ELY FLOW TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM PA. SELY FLOW
AROUND 10 KT TONIGHT...SHIFTING S MONDAY. SLY CHANNELING POSSIBLE BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR SRN MD WATER SCA
TOWARD MONDAY EVENING.

OTHER THAN TSTMS...NO MARINE CONCERNS TUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ026-027-
     029-030.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/CAS
NEAR TERM...BAJ/SEARS
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...CAS
AVIATION...BAJ/CAS
MARINE...BAJ/CAS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 051141
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
741 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY FROM EAST TENNESSEE TODAY TOWARD
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY LATE MONDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY...THEN
STALL AND LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 515 AM EDT SUNDAY...

A CLOSED LOW WILL BE SPLITTING OFF FROM THE MEAN TROF AND SLOWLY
MOVING OVER THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE AREA UP
FOR SOME WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND DEEP E/SE
FLOW WITH GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT GENERATING PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES APPROACHING TWO INCHES. THANKFULLY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE
NOT AS WET AS THEY COULD HAVE BEEN AND THE MOST VULNERABLE AREAS TO
HYDRO CONCERNS ARE FROM THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION UP THROUGH
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...SO A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR
THOSE COUNTIES FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT.

AS THE LOW SPINS SLOWLY TO OUR WEST...WE WILL SEE A BIT OF A DRY SOT
WORK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SEVERAL MODELS ARE QUITE AGGRESSIVE WITH
SHUTTING DOWN THE PRECIPITATION QUICKLY BUT WITH A CLOSED LOW AND
DECENT SYNOPTIC SUPPORT IN PLACE WILL SHADE THINGS TOWARD THE
SLOWER/WETTER SOLUTIONS.

WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED WE SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES TODAY JUST A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH
LOW/MID 80S EAST TO LOW/MID 70S WEST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY
BE 65 TO 70 EAST...WITH 60 TO 65 WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT SUNDAY...

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE NEAR THE VA/WV/KY BORDER INTERSECTION AT
12Z MON...DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN PA BY EVENING. THE
WARM ADVECTION AND HEAVIEST PART OF THE RAINFALL SHOULD BE LIFTING
TOWARD THE I-64 CORRIDOR AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD...THEN INTO
NORTHERN VA/WV BY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS IT DOES SO...A BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL DEVELOP ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. SOMEWHAT OF A
DRY SLOT IS EVIDENT WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE PIEDMONT AND AREAS
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS
DURING THE MORNING SHOULD FOCUS MORE TOWARD THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PART OF THE CWA BY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN THESE AREAS AFTER SUNSET. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN DURING THE DAY SHOULD FALL ROUGHLY NEAR THE I-77 AND
I-64 CORRIDORS WITH THE COMBINED EFFECT OF WARM ADVECTION RAINFALL
EARLY IN THE EVENT...TRANSITIONING TO DEFORMATION RAINFALL WEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO A FEW
SPOTTY SHOWERS ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH AN
ANTICIPATED DRY SLOT IN THAT REGION. WILL HOLD ONTO LIKELY POPS
ACROSS WEST MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH POPS DECREASING INTO THE SLIGHT
CHANCE CATEGORY NC COUNTIES BY EVENING. QPF AFT 12Z SHOULD RANGE
FROM 3/4 INCH IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TO 1/4 INCH IN THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA. THIS RAINFALL SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO
EXACERBATE ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
EVALUATE IF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL NEED TO CONTINUE BEYOND THE
CURRENT 10Z MON EXPIRATION.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL HAVE MOVED FAR ENOUGH NORTH
AWAY FROM THE AREA...AS WELL AS SHEARING OUT...THAT ANY ASSOCIATED
RAINFALL ACROSS OUR REGION SHOULD HAVE ENDED. LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY DRIZZLE MAY LINGER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BUT NO
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

FOR TUESDAY...PROGRESSIVE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES WILL
QUICKLY PUSH A NEW FRONTAL ZONE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK UPPER TROUGH
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. LINEAR ORIENTED...POTENTIALLY
STRONG CONVECTION...APPEARS LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY REACH WESTERN WV/FAR SOUTHWEST VA AND THEN DIMINISH AS
IT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE LESS FAVORABLE
EVENING HOURS. THIS AGREES WELL WITH THE MARGINAL RISK SPC HAS
ADVERTISED ON DAY 3 ENDING JUST SHY OF OUR WESTERN BORDER.
OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY SHOULD OFFER A MINIMUM OF
PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CWA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. HAVE GENERALLY ADVERTISED ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH A WARM...MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE...BUT DYNAMICS WILL BE LIMITED AT BEST.

WEDNESDAY HAS BECOME MORE PROBLEMATIC TODAY AMONG THE MODELS THAN
INDICATED YESTERDAY AS A RESULT OF INCREASED SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS ALLOWS THE TUESDAY FRONT TO
DRIFT INTO THE CWA AND THEN LIFT BACK NORTH. IT SHOULD LINGER LONG
ENOUGH IN THE REGION WEDNESDAY TO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
IF NOT NUMEROUS CONVECTION DURING AFTERNOON HEATING.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN. HOWEVER...EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE SOME INSOLATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WE
SHOULD SEE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THOSE AREAS.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FINALLY REACH ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS IN MUCH OF
THE CWA TUESDAY WITH INCREASED AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AND SOUTHWEST
SURFACE FLOW. WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES CLOSER
TO NORMAL AGAIN WEDNESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...THANKS TO CONTINUED HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT SUNDAY...

EXTENDED PERIOD TRENDING WARMER...BUT STILL SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED.
MODELS...TO VARYING DEGREES...ADVERTISING AN INTENSIFYING UPPER
RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE
GFS/CANADIAN ARE STRONGEST WITH THE UPPER RIDGE...THE ECMWF IS THE
WEAKEST...KEEPING A MORE ACTIVE WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
AT ANY RATE...INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER THAN IN RECENT DAYS.
AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THURSDAY SHOULD OFFER THE BEST
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME
MORE UNFAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED CONVECTION THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER RIDGING TAKING HOLD OF
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. THIS SHOULD PUSH THE MORE ACTIVE
BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO OH/PA/MD/NJ. WILL NEED TO WATCH LATER TRENDS
OF THE MODELS TO MAKE SURE THIS TREND CONTINUES...AS OPPOSED TO
SHIFTING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE FURTHER SOUTH AND WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...SHOULD THE UPPER RIDGE DRIFT FURTHER WEST AND REMAIN
LESS AMPLIFIED THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED.

WITH THE UPPER RIDGING...WE WILL HAVE TO START TALKING ABOUT HIGHS
IN THE 90S AGAIN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH
WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70...SO WILL NEED TO WATCH APPARENT TEMPERATURES
IN THOSE AREAS TOWARD MID-WEEK. NEEDLESS TO SAY...TEMPERATURES APPEAR
DESTINED TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT SUNDAY...

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. AN
WEAK CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN
TN VALLEY TOWARD WESTERN PA THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
SYSTEM...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE AND DURATION ACROSS THE WESTERN
SITES...INCLUDING KLWB AND KBLF. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO PIEDMONT AREAS WHERE SOME HEATING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON LEADING TO ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT ISOLD TSRA. FOR
NOW...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED TSRA AT KDAN.

LOW CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE TAF
VALID PERIOD AS AN EASTERLY FLOW EVOLVES IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER
LOW TRACKING TO OUR WEST. CIGS WILL LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND MVFR-IFR RANGE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN SPREADING INTO THE AREA HELPING TO
LOWER THE CIGS FURTHER BY AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO THE IFR CATEGORY
MOST AREAS...PERHAPS EVEN LIFR BCB/BLF/LWB. AT THIS POINT...RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA BY 18Z...LINGERING IN
THE WEST THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. LOW
CLOUDS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY LINGER IN THE EAST
OVERNIGHT AFTER THE HEAVIER RAIN DRIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA.

WINDS ENE-ESE THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD 4-7KTS...EXCEPT
SE AT BLF IN THE SAME SPEED RANGE.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN TSRA POTENTIAL THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION THROUGH THE
TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDOWS
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR VFR CONDITIONS INCREASE TUE. UPPER LOW/TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PA BY MONDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE...A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE OH VALLEY BY WED. THIS LEAVES A VERY
UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. TUE THROUGH THE DAY OFFERS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERAL
HOURS OF VFR...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH
IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR-
VFR OUTSIDE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR VAZ007-009-010-012.
NC...NONE.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR WVZ042-043-507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...AMS/MBS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...PM/RAB
AVIATION...AMS/MBS/RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 051141
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
741 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY FROM EAST TENNESSEE TODAY TOWARD
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY LATE MONDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY...THEN
STALL AND LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 515 AM EDT SUNDAY...

A CLOSED LOW WILL BE SPLITTING OFF FROM THE MEAN TROF AND SLOWLY
MOVING OVER THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE AREA UP
FOR SOME WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND DEEP E/SE
FLOW WITH GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT GENERATING PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES APPROACHING TWO INCHES. THANKFULLY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE
NOT AS WET AS THEY COULD HAVE BEEN AND THE MOST VULNERABLE AREAS TO
HYDRO CONCERNS ARE FROM THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION UP THROUGH
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...SO A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR
THOSE COUNTIES FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT.

AS THE LOW SPINS SLOWLY TO OUR WEST...WE WILL SEE A BIT OF A DRY SOT
WORK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SEVERAL MODELS ARE QUITE AGGRESSIVE WITH
SHUTTING DOWN THE PRECIPITATION QUICKLY BUT WITH A CLOSED LOW AND
DECENT SYNOPTIC SUPPORT IN PLACE WILL SHADE THINGS TOWARD THE
SLOWER/WETTER SOLUTIONS.

WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED WE SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES TODAY JUST A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH
LOW/MID 80S EAST TO LOW/MID 70S WEST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY
BE 65 TO 70 EAST...WITH 60 TO 65 WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT SUNDAY...

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE NEAR THE VA/WV/KY BORDER INTERSECTION AT
12Z MON...DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN PA BY EVENING. THE
WARM ADVECTION AND HEAVIEST PART OF THE RAINFALL SHOULD BE LIFTING
TOWARD THE I-64 CORRIDOR AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD...THEN INTO
NORTHERN VA/WV BY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS IT DOES SO...A BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL DEVELOP ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. SOMEWHAT OF A
DRY SLOT IS EVIDENT WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE PIEDMONT AND AREAS
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS
DURING THE MORNING SHOULD FOCUS MORE TOWARD THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PART OF THE CWA BY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN THESE AREAS AFTER SUNSET. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN DURING THE DAY SHOULD FALL ROUGHLY NEAR THE I-77 AND
I-64 CORRIDORS WITH THE COMBINED EFFECT OF WARM ADVECTION RAINFALL
EARLY IN THE EVENT...TRANSITIONING TO DEFORMATION RAINFALL WEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO A FEW
SPOTTY SHOWERS ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH AN
ANTICIPATED DRY SLOT IN THAT REGION. WILL HOLD ONTO LIKELY POPS
ACROSS WEST MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH POPS DECREASING INTO THE SLIGHT
CHANCE CATEGORY NC COUNTIES BY EVENING. QPF AFT 12Z SHOULD RANGE
FROM 3/4 INCH IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TO 1/4 INCH IN THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA. THIS RAINFALL SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO
EXACERBATE ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
EVALUATE IF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL NEED TO CONTINUE BEYOND THE
CURRENT 10Z MON EXPIRATION.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL HAVE MOVED FAR ENOUGH NORTH
AWAY FROM THE AREA...AS WELL AS SHEARING OUT...THAT ANY ASSOCIATED
RAINFALL ACROSS OUR REGION SHOULD HAVE ENDED. LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY DRIZZLE MAY LINGER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BUT NO
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

FOR TUESDAY...PROGRESSIVE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES WILL
QUICKLY PUSH A NEW FRONTAL ZONE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK UPPER TROUGH
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. LINEAR ORIENTED...POTENTIALLY
STRONG CONVECTION...APPEARS LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY REACH WESTERN WV/FAR SOUTHWEST VA AND THEN DIMINISH AS
IT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE LESS FAVORABLE
EVENING HOURS. THIS AGREES WELL WITH THE MARGINAL RISK SPC HAS
ADVERTISED ON DAY 3 ENDING JUST SHY OF OUR WESTERN BORDER.
OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY SHOULD OFFER A MINIMUM OF
PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CWA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. HAVE GENERALLY ADVERTISED ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH A WARM...MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE...BUT DYNAMICS WILL BE LIMITED AT BEST.

WEDNESDAY HAS BECOME MORE PROBLEMATIC TODAY AMONG THE MODELS THAN
INDICATED YESTERDAY AS A RESULT OF INCREASED SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS ALLOWS THE TUESDAY FRONT TO
DRIFT INTO THE CWA AND THEN LIFT BACK NORTH. IT SHOULD LINGER LONG
ENOUGH IN THE REGION WEDNESDAY TO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
IF NOT NUMEROUS CONVECTION DURING AFTERNOON HEATING.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN. HOWEVER...EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE SOME INSOLATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WE
SHOULD SEE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THOSE AREAS.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FINALLY REACH ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS IN MUCH OF
THE CWA TUESDAY WITH INCREASED AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AND SOUTHWEST
SURFACE FLOW. WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES CLOSER
TO NORMAL AGAIN WEDNESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...THANKS TO CONTINUED HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT SUNDAY...

EXTENDED PERIOD TRENDING WARMER...BUT STILL SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED.
MODELS...TO VARYING DEGREES...ADVERTISING AN INTENSIFYING UPPER
RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE
GFS/CANADIAN ARE STRONGEST WITH THE UPPER RIDGE...THE ECMWF IS THE
WEAKEST...KEEPING A MORE ACTIVE WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
AT ANY RATE...INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER THAN IN RECENT DAYS.
AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THURSDAY SHOULD OFFER THE BEST
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME
MORE UNFAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED CONVECTION THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER RIDGING TAKING HOLD OF
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. THIS SHOULD PUSH THE MORE ACTIVE
BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO OH/PA/MD/NJ. WILL NEED TO WATCH LATER TRENDS
OF THE MODELS TO MAKE SURE THIS TREND CONTINUES...AS OPPOSED TO
SHIFTING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE FURTHER SOUTH AND WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...SHOULD THE UPPER RIDGE DRIFT FURTHER WEST AND REMAIN
LESS AMPLIFIED THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED.

WITH THE UPPER RIDGING...WE WILL HAVE TO START TALKING ABOUT HIGHS
IN THE 90S AGAIN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH
WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70...SO WILL NEED TO WATCH APPARENT TEMPERATURES
IN THOSE AREAS TOWARD MID-WEEK. NEEDLESS TO SAY...TEMPERATURES APPEAR
DESTINED TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT SUNDAY...

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. AN
WEAK CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN
TN VALLEY TOWARD WESTERN PA THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
SYSTEM...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE AND DURATION ACROSS THE WESTERN
SITES...INCLUDING KLWB AND KBLF. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO PIEDMONT AREAS WHERE SOME HEATING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON LEADING TO ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT ISOLD TSRA. FOR
NOW...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED TSRA AT KDAN.

LOW CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE TAF
VALID PERIOD AS AN EASTERLY FLOW EVOLVES IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER
LOW TRACKING TO OUR WEST. CIGS WILL LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND MVFR-IFR RANGE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN SPREADING INTO THE AREA HELPING TO
LOWER THE CIGS FURTHER BY AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO THE IFR CATEGORY
MOST AREAS...PERHAPS EVEN LIFR BCB/BLF/LWB. AT THIS POINT...RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA BY 18Z...LINGERING IN
THE WEST THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. LOW
CLOUDS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY LINGER IN THE EAST
OVERNIGHT AFTER THE HEAVIER RAIN DRIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA.

WINDS ENE-ESE THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD 4-7KTS...EXCEPT
SE AT BLF IN THE SAME SPEED RANGE.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN TSRA POTENTIAL THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION THROUGH THE
TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDOWS
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR VFR CONDITIONS INCREASE TUE. UPPER LOW/TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PA BY MONDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE...A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE OH VALLEY BY WED. THIS LEAVES A VERY
UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. TUE THROUGH THE DAY OFFERS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERAL
HOURS OF VFR...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH
IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR-
VFR OUTSIDE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR VAZ007-009-010-012.
NC...NONE.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR WVZ042-043-507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...AMS/MBS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...PM/RAB
AVIATION...AMS/MBS/RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 051141
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
741 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY FROM EAST TENNESSEE TODAY TOWARD
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY LATE MONDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY...THEN
STALL AND LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 515 AM EDT SUNDAY...

A CLOSED LOW WILL BE SPLITTING OFF FROM THE MEAN TROF AND SLOWLY
MOVING OVER THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE AREA UP
FOR SOME WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND DEEP E/SE
FLOW WITH GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT GENERATING PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES APPROACHING TWO INCHES. THANKFULLY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE
NOT AS WET AS THEY COULD HAVE BEEN AND THE MOST VULNERABLE AREAS TO
HYDRO CONCERNS ARE FROM THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION UP THROUGH
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...SO A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR
THOSE COUNTIES FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT.

AS THE LOW SPINS SLOWLY TO OUR WEST...WE WILL SEE A BIT OF A DRY SOT
WORK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SEVERAL MODELS ARE QUITE AGGRESSIVE WITH
SHUTTING DOWN THE PRECIPITATION QUICKLY BUT WITH A CLOSED LOW AND
DECENT SYNOPTIC SUPPORT IN PLACE WILL SHADE THINGS TOWARD THE
SLOWER/WETTER SOLUTIONS.

WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED WE SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES TODAY JUST A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH
LOW/MID 80S EAST TO LOW/MID 70S WEST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY
BE 65 TO 70 EAST...WITH 60 TO 65 WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT SUNDAY...

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE NEAR THE VA/WV/KY BORDER INTERSECTION AT
12Z MON...DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN PA BY EVENING. THE
WARM ADVECTION AND HEAVIEST PART OF THE RAINFALL SHOULD BE LIFTING
TOWARD THE I-64 CORRIDOR AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD...THEN INTO
NORTHERN VA/WV BY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS IT DOES SO...A BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL DEVELOP ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. SOMEWHAT OF A
DRY SLOT IS EVIDENT WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE PIEDMONT AND AREAS
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS
DURING THE MORNING SHOULD FOCUS MORE TOWARD THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PART OF THE CWA BY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN THESE AREAS AFTER SUNSET. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN DURING THE DAY SHOULD FALL ROUGHLY NEAR THE I-77 AND
I-64 CORRIDORS WITH THE COMBINED EFFECT OF WARM ADVECTION RAINFALL
EARLY IN THE EVENT...TRANSITIONING TO DEFORMATION RAINFALL WEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO A FEW
SPOTTY SHOWERS ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH AN
ANTICIPATED DRY SLOT IN THAT REGION. WILL HOLD ONTO LIKELY POPS
ACROSS WEST MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH POPS DECREASING INTO THE SLIGHT
CHANCE CATEGORY NC COUNTIES BY EVENING. QPF AFT 12Z SHOULD RANGE
FROM 3/4 INCH IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TO 1/4 INCH IN THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA. THIS RAINFALL SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO
EXACERBATE ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
EVALUATE IF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL NEED TO CONTINUE BEYOND THE
CURRENT 10Z MON EXPIRATION.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL HAVE MOVED FAR ENOUGH NORTH
AWAY FROM THE AREA...AS WELL AS SHEARING OUT...THAT ANY ASSOCIATED
RAINFALL ACROSS OUR REGION SHOULD HAVE ENDED. LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY DRIZZLE MAY LINGER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BUT NO
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

FOR TUESDAY...PROGRESSIVE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES WILL
QUICKLY PUSH A NEW FRONTAL ZONE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK UPPER TROUGH
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. LINEAR ORIENTED...POTENTIALLY
STRONG CONVECTION...APPEARS LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY REACH WESTERN WV/FAR SOUTHWEST VA AND THEN DIMINISH AS
IT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE LESS FAVORABLE
EVENING HOURS. THIS AGREES WELL WITH THE MARGINAL RISK SPC HAS
ADVERTISED ON DAY 3 ENDING JUST SHY OF OUR WESTERN BORDER.
OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY SHOULD OFFER A MINIMUM OF
PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CWA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. HAVE GENERALLY ADVERTISED ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH A WARM...MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE...BUT DYNAMICS WILL BE LIMITED AT BEST.

WEDNESDAY HAS BECOME MORE PROBLEMATIC TODAY AMONG THE MODELS THAN
INDICATED YESTERDAY AS A RESULT OF INCREASED SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS ALLOWS THE TUESDAY FRONT TO
DRIFT INTO THE CWA AND THEN LIFT BACK NORTH. IT SHOULD LINGER LONG
ENOUGH IN THE REGION WEDNESDAY TO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
IF NOT NUMEROUS CONVECTION DURING AFTERNOON HEATING.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN. HOWEVER...EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE SOME INSOLATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WE
SHOULD SEE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THOSE AREAS.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FINALLY REACH ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS IN MUCH OF
THE CWA TUESDAY WITH INCREASED AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AND SOUTHWEST
SURFACE FLOW. WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES CLOSER
TO NORMAL AGAIN WEDNESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...THANKS TO CONTINUED HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT SUNDAY...

EXTENDED PERIOD TRENDING WARMER...BUT STILL SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED.
MODELS...TO VARYING DEGREES...ADVERTISING AN INTENSIFYING UPPER
RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE
GFS/CANADIAN ARE STRONGEST WITH THE UPPER RIDGE...THE ECMWF IS THE
WEAKEST...KEEPING A MORE ACTIVE WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
AT ANY RATE...INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER THAN IN RECENT DAYS.
AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THURSDAY SHOULD OFFER THE BEST
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME
MORE UNFAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED CONVECTION THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER RIDGING TAKING HOLD OF
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. THIS SHOULD PUSH THE MORE ACTIVE
BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO OH/PA/MD/NJ. WILL NEED TO WATCH LATER TRENDS
OF THE MODELS TO MAKE SURE THIS TREND CONTINUES...AS OPPOSED TO
SHIFTING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE FURTHER SOUTH AND WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...SHOULD THE UPPER RIDGE DRIFT FURTHER WEST AND REMAIN
LESS AMPLIFIED THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED.

WITH THE UPPER RIDGING...WE WILL HAVE TO START TALKING ABOUT HIGHS
IN THE 90S AGAIN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH
WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70...SO WILL NEED TO WATCH APPARENT TEMPERATURES
IN THOSE AREAS TOWARD MID-WEEK. NEEDLESS TO SAY...TEMPERATURES APPEAR
DESTINED TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT SUNDAY...

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. AN
WEAK CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN
TN VALLEY TOWARD WESTERN PA THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
SYSTEM...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE AND DURATION ACROSS THE WESTERN
SITES...INCLUDING KLWB AND KBLF. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO PIEDMONT AREAS WHERE SOME HEATING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON LEADING TO ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT ISOLD TSRA. FOR
NOW...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED TSRA AT KDAN.

LOW CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE TAF
VALID PERIOD AS AN EASTERLY FLOW EVOLVES IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER
LOW TRACKING TO OUR WEST. CIGS WILL LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND MVFR-IFR RANGE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN SPREADING INTO THE AREA HELPING TO
LOWER THE CIGS FURTHER BY AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO THE IFR CATEGORY
MOST AREAS...PERHAPS EVEN LIFR BCB/BLF/LWB. AT THIS POINT...RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA BY 18Z...LINGERING IN
THE WEST THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. LOW
CLOUDS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY LINGER IN THE EAST
OVERNIGHT AFTER THE HEAVIER RAIN DRIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA.

WINDS ENE-ESE THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD 4-7KTS...EXCEPT
SE AT BLF IN THE SAME SPEED RANGE.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN TSRA POTENTIAL THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION THROUGH THE
TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDOWS
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR VFR CONDITIONS INCREASE TUE. UPPER LOW/TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PA BY MONDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE...A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE OH VALLEY BY WED. THIS LEAVES A VERY
UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. TUE THROUGH THE DAY OFFERS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERAL
HOURS OF VFR...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH
IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR-
VFR OUTSIDE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR VAZ007-009-010-012.
NC...NONE.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR WVZ042-043-507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...AMS/MBS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...PM/RAB
AVIATION...AMS/MBS/RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 051141
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
741 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY FROM EAST TENNESSEE TODAY TOWARD
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY LATE MONDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY...THEN
STALL AND LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 515 AM EDT SUNDAY...

A CLOSED LOW WILL BE SPLITTING OFF FROM THE MEAN TROF AND SLOWLY
MOVING OVER THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE AREA UP
FOR SOME WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND DEEP E/SE
FLOW WITH GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT GENERATING PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES APPROACHING TWO INCHES. THANKFULLY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE
NOT AS WET AS THEY COULD HAVE BEEN AND THE MOST VULNERABLE AREAS TO
HYDRO CONCERNS ARE FROM THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION UP THROUGH
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...SO A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR
THOSE COUNTIES FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT.

AS THE LOW SPINS SLOWLY TO OUR WEST...WE WILL SEE A BIT OF A DRY SOT
WORK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SEVERAL MODELS ARE QUITE AGGRESSIVE WITH
SHUTTING DOWN THE PRECIPITATION QUICKLY BUT WITH A CLOSED LOW AND
DECENT SYNOPTIC SUPPORT IN PLACE WILL SHADE THINGS TOWARD THE
SLOWER/WETTER SOLUTIONS.

WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED WE SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES TODAY JUST A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH
LOW/MID 80S EAST TO LOW/MID 70S WEST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY
BE 65 TO 70 EAST...WITH 60 TO 65 WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT SUNDAY...

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE NEAR THE VA/WV/KY BORDER INTERSECTION AT
12Z MON...DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN PA BY EVENING. THE
WARM ADVECTION AND HEAVIEST PART OF THE RAINFALL SHOULD BE LIFTING
TOWARD THE I-64 CORRIDOR AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD...THEN INTO
NORTHERN VA/WV BY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS IT DOES SO...A BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL DEVELOP ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. SOMEWHAT OF A
DRY SLOT IS EVIDENT WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE PIEDMONT AND AREAS
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS
DURING THE MORNING SHOULD FOCUS MORE TOWARD THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PART OF THE CWA BY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN THESE AREAS AFTER SUNSET. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN DURING THE DAY SHOULD FALL ROUGHLY NEAR THE I-77 AND
I-64 CORRIDORS WITH THE COMBINED EFFECT OF WARM ADVECTION RAINFALL
EARLY IN THE EVENT...TRANSITIONING TO DEFORMATION RAINFALL WEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO A FEW
SPOTTY SHOWERS ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH AN
ANTICIPATED DRY SLOT IN THAT REGION. WILL HOLD ONTO LIKELY POPS
ACROSS WEST MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH POPS DECREASING INTO THE SLIGHT
CHANCE CATEGORY NC COUNTIES BY EVENING. QPF AFT 12Z SHOULD RANGE
FROM 3/4 INCH IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TO 1/4 INCH IN THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA. THIS RAINFALL SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO
EXACERBATE ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
EVALUATE IF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL NEED TO CONTINUE BEYOND THE
CURRENT 10Z MON EXPIRATION.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL HAVE MOVED FAR ENOUGH NORTH
AWAY FROM THE AREA...AS WELL AS SHEARING OUT...THAT ANY ASSOCIATED
RAINFALL ACROSS OUR REGION SHOULD HAVE ENDED. LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY DRIZZLE MAY LINGER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BUT NO
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

FOR TUESDAY...PROGRESSIVE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES WILL
QUICKLY PUSH A NEW FRONTAL ZONE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK UPPER TROUGH
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. LINEAR ORIENTED...POTENTIALLY
STRONG CONVECTION...APPEARS LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY REACH WESTERN WV/FAR SOUTHWEST VA AND THEN DIMINISH AS
IT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE LESS FAVORABLE
EVENING HOURS. THIS AGREES WELL WITH THE MARGINAL RISK SPC HAS
ADVERTISED ON DAY 3 ENDING JUST SHY OF OUR WESTERN BORDER.
OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY SHOULD OFFER A MINIMUM OF
PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CWA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. HAVE GENERALLY ADVERTISED ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH A WARM...MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE...BUT DYNAMICS WILL BE LIMITED AT BEST.

WEDNESDAY HAS BECOME MORE PROBLEMATIC TODAY AMONG THE MODELS THAN
INDICATED YESTERDAY AS A RESULT OF INCREASED SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS ALLOWS THE TUESDAY FRONT TO
DRIFT INTO THE CWA AND THEN LIFT BACK NORTH. IT SHOULD LINGER LONG
ENOUGH IN THE REGION WEDNESDAY TO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
IF NOT NUMEROUS CONVECTION DURING AFTERNOON HEATING.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN. HOWEVER...EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE SOME INSOLATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WE
SHOULD SEE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THOSE AREAS.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FINALLY REACH ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS IN MUCH OF
THE CWA TUESDAY WITH INCREASED AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AND SOUTHWEST
SURFACE FLOW. WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES CLOSER
TO NORMAL AGAIN WEDNESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...THANKS TO CONTINUED HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT SUNDAY...

EXTENDED PERIOD TRENDING WARMER...BUT STILL SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED.
MODELS...TO VARYING DEGREES...ADVERTISING AN INTENSIFYING UPPER
RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE
GFS/CANADIAN ARE STRONGEST WITH THE UPPER RIDGE...THE ECMWF IS THE
WEAKEST...KEEPING A MORE ACTIVE WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
AT ANY RATE...INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER THAN IN RECENT DAYS.
AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THURSDAY SHOULD OFFER THE BEST
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME
MORE UNFAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED CONVECTION THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER RIDGING TAKING HOLD OF
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. THIS SHOULD PUSH THE MORE ACTIVE
BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO OH/PA/MD/NJ. WILL NEED TO WATCH LATER TRENDS
OF THE MODELS TO MAKE SURE THIS TREND CONTINUES...AS OPPOSED TO
SHIFTING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE FURTHER SOUTH AND WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...SHOULD THE UPPER RIDGE DRIFT FURTHER WEST AND REMAIN
LESS AMPLIFIED THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED.

WITH THE UPPER RIDGING...WE WILL HAVE TO START TALKING ABOUT HIGHS
IN THE 90S AGAIN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH
WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70...SO WILL NEED TO WATCH APPARENT TEMPERATURES
IN THOSE AREAS TOWARD MID-WEEK. NEEDLESS TO SAY...TEMPERATURES APPEAR
DESTINED TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT SUNDAY...

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. AN
WEAK CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN
TN VALLEY TOWARD WESTERN PA THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
SYSTEM...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE AND DURATION ACROSS THE WESTERN
SITES...INCLUDING KLWB AND KBLF. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO PIEDMONT AREAS WHERE SOME HEATING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON LEADING TO ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT ISOLD TSRA. FOR
NOW...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED TSRA AT KDAN.

LOW CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE TAF
VALID PERIOD AS AN EASTERLY FLOW EVOLVES IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER
LOW TRACKING TO OUR WEST. CIGS WILL LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND MVFR-IFR RANGE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN SPREADING INTO THE AREA HELPING TO
LOWER THE CIGS FURTHER BY AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO THE IFR CATEGORY
MOST AREAS...PERHAPS EVEN LIFR BCB/BLF/LWB. AT THIS POINT...RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA BY 18Z...LINGERING IN
THE WEST THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. LOW
CLOUDS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY LINGER IN THE EAST
OVERNIGHT AFTER THE HEAVIER RAIN DRIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA.

WINDS ENE-ESE THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD 4-7KTS...EXCEPT
SE AT BLF IN THE SAME SPEED RANGE.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN TSRA POTENTIAL THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION THROUGH THE
TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDOWS
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR VFR CONDITIONS INCREASE TUE. UPPER LOW/TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PA BY MONDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE...A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE OH VALLEY BY WED. THIS LEAVES A VERY
UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. TUE THROUGH THE DAY OFFERS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERAL
HOURS OF VFR...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH
IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR-
VFR OUTSIDE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR VAZ007-009-010-012.
NC...NONE.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR WVZ042-043-507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...AMS/MBS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...PM/RAB
AVIATION...AMS/MBS/RAB




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 050957
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
557 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO
THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EXPANDED INCLUSION OF AREAS OF FOG (AND ISSUED CORRESPONDING SPS)
INTO PORTIONS OF THE I 95 CORRIDOR FM ABT RIC AND LOCATIONS TO THE
N AND W THROUGH 12-13Z/05.

PREV DISCUSSION:
FNTL BNDRY HAS STALLED ACRS SRN VA AND WILL RMN NRLY STATIONARY
INTO THIS AFTN...BEFORE BEGINNING TO MOVE BACK N ONCE AGN LATE
TDA. WILL HAVE A LO CHC FOR SHRAS THROUGH THE MRNG HRS ACRS SRN
VA/NE NC (INVOF/S OF THE BNDRY). THE FAVORED AREA FOR ADDITIONAL
SHRAS/TSTMS THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVE TO RMN ACRS THOSE SAME
AREAS. LCLLY HEAVY RA...AND GUSTY WNDS (SUB-SVR) THE MAIN THREATS
FM ANY STMS. ADDED AREAS OF FG TO AREAS WELL WNW OF RIC (MNLY
LOUISA/FLUVANNA COUNTIES IN VA)...OTRW MOSTLY CLOUDY
CNTRL/S...PARTLY CLOUDY NE TDA. HI TEMPS FM THE U70S AT OCEAN CITY
MD...TO THE L/M80S ELSW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE INTO THE CNTRL MTNS TNGT. MDLS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL PUSH INTO SW
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS EVE...THEN SLOWLY SPREAD N/NE OVERNIGHT
INTO MON. THIS WILL SUPPORT HI CHC TO LIKELY POPS ONCE AGAIN ACRS
MOST OF THE CWA (WILL KEEP POPS A LITTLE LOWER ALG THE CST). LCLLY
HEAVY RA AGN PSBL W/ ANY SHRAS/STMS. MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE
U60S-L70S. VRB CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS TRANSITIONING
A BIT TO THE N AND W AS UPR LVL LO SLOLY EXITS THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS. HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S NW TO THE U80S/ARND 90F SE.
FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER...BUT WARMER BY TUE...WITH JUST 20-30%
POPS MNLY IN THE AFTN/EVE WITH HI TEMPS FM THE M80S RIGHT AT THE
CST TO THE L90S ELSW.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH TUE WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL
VA TO INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF 1/2 INCH OR LESS OVR
MOST OF ERN VA TO THE LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER
AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING
OR REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE COMING WEEK AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE SERN
U.S. AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT FRI/SAT.
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...FRNTL BNDRY WAS LAYING ACRS SRN VA...WITH JUST
ISLTD SHOWERS OVR SCNTRL/SE VA AND NE NC. THAT FRONT WILL LIFT
BACK N ACRS THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTN INTO MON. EXPECT
IFR CONDITIONS AT SBY AND POSSIBLY RIC EARLY THIS MORNG...THEN
MAINLY MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z-14Z. MORE SCTD SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WILL RETURN FOR LATER THIS AFTN INTO MON...DUE TO FRNTL
BNDRY LIFTING THRU THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE N OF THE REGION
MON NGT/TUE MORNG...WITH A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED
FOR TUE INTO WED. ISLTD LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU MON NGT. A FRNTL BNDRY
THAT WAS LAYING ACRS SRN VA EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL LIFT BACK N
ACRS THE REGION AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTN INTO MON. NNE
WINDS OR WSW WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT EARLY TODAY...WILL TURN TO THE
SE OR S FOR TNGT THRU MON. WINDS WILL THEN BE SSW AOB 15 KT
TUE/WED IN ADVANCE OF NEXT COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
2-4 FT THRU MIDWEEK...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT ON THE CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG




000
FXUS61 KLWX 050933
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
533 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA SHIFTS EAST. THE
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY...THEN STALL AND
SLOWLY DISSIPATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EXPANDED DENSE FOG ADVISORY PER LATEST OBS. TRAFFIC CAMS SUGGEST
THE FOG IS MORE PATCHY THAN AREAS. SUNRISE IS BY 6AM...SO THE
HEADLINE IS EXPECTED TO BE CANCELLED WELL BEFORE THE CURRENT
EXPIRY TIME OF 10AM.

AS OF 09Z...1019MB SFC HIGH OVER SRN PA WITH AN UPR LOW APPARENT
OVER THE TN VLY IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE
LOW HAVE OVERSPREAD THE AREA RIDING A 60 KT W-SWLY JET STREAM.
THE HIGH CLOUDS AND SOME MIXING ELY/SELY FLOW HAVE LIMITED FOG
DEVELOPMENT TO MORE OF A PATCHY COVERAGE FOR WRN BALT-WASH SUBURBS
AND NORTH-CENTRAL VA.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM PA LATE THIS MORNING. HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKEN A BIT AS THE UPR LOW DRIFTS
TOWARD THE AREA. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTS INTO THE SWRN
ZONES LATER THIS MORNING WITH POPS INCREASING IN ELY FLOW.
HOWEVER...THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT INSOLATION AND THUS THE
INSTABILITY. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN AT LEAST SCATTERED
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

UPR LOW DRIFTS TO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LWX IN
THE WARM SECTOR WITH THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT OVER THE
AREA...PROVIDING CONVERGENT FORCING. POPS ROUGHLY INCREASE AND
SPREAD NE OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH A RAINY
PERIOD THIS EVENING TO MONDAY EVENING FOR MOST OF THE CWA. WITH
LIMITED INSTABILITY...EXPECT MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
MONDAY...SOME RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER EAST FROM THE BLUE RIDGE AS
UPR LOW IS ANCHORED OVER THE ALLEGHENIES. LIMITED INSTABILITY
SHOULD EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A MARGINAL RISK...THOUGH IT IS NOT
OFFICIALLY ONE IN THE DAY 2 OUTLOOK FROM SPC. WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. HEAVY RAIN THREAT ALSO WITH
PWATS AROUND 2 INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT OUT MONDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS RESULTING
FROM IT COULD LINGER INTO TUE IF THE LOW IS SLOW...BUT NOT
EXPECTING THAT AT THIS TIME AND HAVE MINIMIZED POPS FOR TUE DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE LOW. THE NEXT WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION WED...BUT ONLY CHANCE POPS ON WED WITH THAT. WITH THE FRONT
STALLING AND WASHING OUT THU THRU SAT...MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
DURING THAT PERIOD. TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD...ONLY WAVERING A FEW DEGREES FROM DAY TO DAY. TYPICAL JULY
WEATHER IN THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. HOWEVER...LIGHT MIXING AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE KEPT CONDS
MVFR FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN TONIGHT
WITH RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSTMS SHIFT NORTH ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. RAINY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING ACROSS
THE AREA WITH IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIEST ACTIVITY.

OTHER THAN TSTMS...NO AVIATION CONCERNS TUE THRU SATURDAY. WINDS
LIGHT...BELOW 10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT ELY FLOW TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM PA. SELY FLOW
AROUND 10 KT TONIGHT...SHIFTING S MONDAY. SLY CHANNELING POSSIBLE BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR SRN MD WATER SCA
TOWARD MONDAY EVENING.

OTHER THAN TSTMS...NO MARINE CONCERNS TUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ004>006-
     503-505-507.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ026-027-
     029-030-037>040-050>053-055>057-501-502-505-506.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/CAS
NEAR TERM...BAJ
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...CAS
AVIATION...BAJ/CAS
MARINE...BAJ/CAS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 050933
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
533 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA SHIFTS EAST. THE
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY...THEN STALL AND
SLOWLY DISSIPATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EXPANDED DENSE FOG ADVISORY PER LATEST OBS. TRAFFIC CAMS SUGGEST
THE FOG IS MORE PATCHY THAN AREAS. SUNRISE IS BY 6AM...SO THE
HEADLINE IS EXPECTED TO BE CANCELLED WELL BEFORE THE CURRENT
EXPIRY TIME OF 10AM.

AS OF 09Z...1019MB SFC HIGH OVER SRN PA WITH AN UPR LOW APPARENT
OVER THE TN VLY IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE
LOW HAVE OVERSPREAD THE AREA RIDING A 60 KT W-SWLY JET STREAM.
THE HIGH CLOUDS AND SOME MIXING ELY/SELY FLOW HAVE LIMITED FOG
DEVELOPMENT TO MORE OF A PATCHY COVERAGE FOR WRN BALT-WASH SUBURBS
AND NORTH-CENTRAL VA.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM PA LATE THIS MORNING. HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKEN A BIT AS THE UPR LOW DRIFTS
TOWARD THE AREA. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTS INTO THE SWRN
ZONES LATER THIS MORNING WITH POPS INCREASING IN ELY FLOW.
HOWEVER...THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT INSOLATION AND THUS THE
INSTABILITY. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN AT LEAST SCATTERED
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

UPR LOW DRIFTS TO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LWX IN
THE WARM SECTOR WITH THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT OVER THE
AREA...PROVIDING CONVERGENT FORCING. POPS ROUGHLY INCREASE AND
SPREAD NE OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH A RAINY
PERIOD THIS EVENING TO MONDAY EVENING FOR MOST OF THE CWA. WITH
LIMITED INSTABILITY...EXPECT MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
MONDAY...SOME RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER EAST FROM THE BLUE RIDGE AS
UPR LOW IS ANCHORED OVER THE ALLEGHENIES. LIMITED INSTABILITY
SHOULD EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A MARGINAL RISK...THOUGH IT IS NOT
OFFICIALLY ONE IN THE DAY 2 OUTLOOK FROM SPC. WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. HEAVY RAIN THREAT ALSO WITH
PWATS AROUND 2 INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT OUT MONDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS RESULTING
FROM IT COULD LINGER INTO TUE IF THE LOW IS SLOW...BUT NOT
EXPECTING THAT AT THIS TIME AND HAVE MINIMIZED POPS FOR TUE DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE LOW. THE NEXT WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION WED...BUT ONLY CHANCE POPS ON WED WITH THAT. WITH THE FRONT
STALLING AND WASHING OUT THU THRU SAT...MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
DURING THAT PERIOD. TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD...ONLY WAVERING A FEW DEGREES FROM DAY TO DAY. TYPICAL JULY
WEATHER IN THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. HOWEVER...LIGHT MIXING AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE KEPT CONDS
MVFR FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN TONIGHT
WITH RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSTMS SHIFT NORTH ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. RAINY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING ACROSS
THE AREA WITH IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIEST ACTIVITY.

OTHER THAN TSTMS...NO AVIATION CONCERNS TUE THRU SATURDAY. WINDS
LIGHT...BELOW 10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT ELY FLOW TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM PA. SELY FLOW
AROUND 10 KT TONIGHT...SHIFTING S MONDAY. SLY CHANNELING POSSIBLE BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR SRN MD WATER SCA
TOWARD MONDAY EVENING.

OTHER THAN TSTMS...NO MARINE CONCERNS TUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ004>006-
     503-505-507.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ026-027-
     029-030-037>040-050>053-055>057-501-502-505-506.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/CAS
NEAR TERM...BAJ
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...CAS
AVIATION...BAJ/CAS
MARINE...BAJ/CAS



000
FXUS61 KRNK 050916
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
516 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY FROM EAST TENNESSEE TODAY TOWARD
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY LATE MONDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY...THEN
STALL AND LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 515 AM EDT SUNDAY...

A CLOSED LOW WILL BE SPLITTING OFF FROM THE MEAN TROF AND SLOWLY
MOVING OVER THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE AREA UP
FOR SOME WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND DEEP E/SE
FLOW WITH GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT GENERATING PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES APPROACHING TWO INCHES. THANKFULLY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE
NOT AS WET AS THEY COULD HAVE BEEN AND THE MOST VULNERABLE AREAS TO
HYDRO CONCERNS ARE FROM THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION UP THROUGH
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...SO A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR
THOSE COUNTIES FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT.

AS THE LOW SPINS SLOWLY TO OUR WEST...WE WILL SEE A BIT OF A DRY SOT
WORK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SEVERAL MODELS ARE QUITE AGGRESSIVE WITH
SHUTTING DOWN THE PRECIPITATION QUICKLY BUT WITH A CLOSED LOW AND
DECENT SYNOPTIC SUPPORT IN PLACE WILL SHADE THINGS TOWARD THE
SLOWER/WETTER SOLUTIONS.

WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED WE SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES TODAY JUST A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH
LOW/MID 80S EAST TO LOW/MID 70S WEST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY
BE 65 TO 70 EAST...WITH 60 TO 65 WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT SUNDAY...

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE NEAR THE VA/WV/KY BORDER INTERSECTION AT
12Z MON...DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN PA BY EVENING. THE
WARM ADVECTION AND HEAVIEST PART OF THE RAINFALL SHOULD BE LIFTING
TOWARD THE I-64 CORRIDOR AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD...THEN INTO
NORTHERN VA/WV BY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS IT DOES SO...A BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL DEVELOP ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. SOMEWHAT OF A
DRY SLOT IS EVIDENT WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE PIEDMONT AND AREAS
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS
DURING THE MORNING SHOULD FOCUS MORE TOWARD THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PART OF THE CWA BY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN THESE AREAS AFTER SUNSET. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN DURING THE DAY SHOULD FALL ROUGHLY NEAR THE I-77 AND
I-64 CORRIDORS WITH THE COMBINED EFFECT OF WARM ADVECTION RAINFALL
EARLY IN THE EVENT...TRANSITIONING TO DEFORMATION RAINFALL WEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO A FEW
SPOTTY SHOWERS ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH AN
ANTICIPATED DRY SLOT IN THAT REGION. WILL HOLD ONTO LIKELY POPS
ACROSS WEST MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH POPS DECREASING INTO THE SLIGHT
CHANCE CATEGORY NC COUNTIES BY EVENING. QPF AFT 12Z SHOULD RANGE
FROM 3/4 INCH IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TO 1/4 INCH IN THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA. THIS RAINFALL SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO
EXACERBATE ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
EVALUATE IF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL NEED TO CONTINUE BEYOND THE
CURRENT 10Z MON EXPIRATION.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL HAVE MOVED FAR ENOUGH NORTH
AWAY FROM THE AREA...AS WELL AS SHEARING OUT...THAT ANY ASSOCIATED
RAINFALL ACROSS OUR REGION SHOULD HAVE ENDED. LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY DRIZZLE MAY LINGER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BUT NO
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

FOR TUESDAY...PROGRESSIVE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES WILL
QUICKLY PUSH A NEW FRONTAL ZONE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK UPPER TROUGH
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. LINEAR ORIENTED...POTENTIALLY
STRONG CONVECTION...APPEARS LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY REACH WESTERN WV/FAR SOUTHWEST VA AND THEN DIMINISH AS
IT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE LESS FAVORABLE
EVENING HOURS. THIS AGREES WELL WITH THE MARGINAL RISK SPC HAS
ADVERTISED ON DAY 3 ENDING JUST SHY OF OUR WESTERN BORDER.
OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY SHOULD OFFER A MINIMUM OF
PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CWA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. HAVE GENERALLY ADVERTISED ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH A WARM...MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE...BUT DYNAMICS WILL BE LIMITED AT BEST.

WEDNESDAY HAS BECOME MORE PROBLEMATIC TODAY AMONG THE MODELS THAN
INDICATED YESTERDAY AS A RESULT OF INCREASED SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS ALLOWS THE TUESDAY FRONT TO
DRIFT INTO THE CWA AND THEN LIFT BACK NORTH. IT SHOULD LINGER LONG
ENOUGH IN THE REGION WEDNESDAY TO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
IF NOT NUMEROUS CONVECTION DURING AFTERNOON HEATING.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN. HOWEVER...EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE SOME INSOLATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WE
SHOULD SEE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THOSE AREAS.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FINALLY REACH ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS IN MUCH OF
THE CWA TUESDAY WITH INCREASED AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AND SOUTHWEST
SURFACE FLOW. WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES CLOSER
TO NORMAL AGAIN WEDNESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...THANKS TO CONTINUED HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT SUNDAY...

EXTENDED PERIOD TRENDING WARMER...BUT STILL SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED.
MODELS...TO VARYING DEGREES...ADVERTISING AN INTENSIFYING UPPER
RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE
GFS/CANADIAN ARE STRONGEST WITH THE UPPER RIDGE...THE ECMWF IS THE
WEAKEST...KEEPING A MORE ACTIVE WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
AT ANY RATE...INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER THAN IN RECENT DAYS.
AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THURSDAY SHOULD OFFER THE BEST
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME
MORE UNFAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED CONVECTION THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER RIDGING TAKING HOLD OF
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. THIS SHOULD PUSH THE MORE ACTIVE
BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO OH/PA/MD/NJ. WILL NEED TO WATCH LATER TRENDS
OF THE MODELS TO MAKE SURE THIS TREND CONTINUES...AS OPPOSED TO
SHIFTING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE FURTHER SOUTH AND WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...SHOULD THE UPPER RIDGE DRIFT FURTHER WEST AND REMAIN
LESS AMPLIFIED THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED.

WITH THE UPPER RIDGING...WE WILL HAVE TO START TALKING ABOUT HIGHS
IN THE 90S AGAIN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH
WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70...SO WILL NEED TO WATCH APPARENT TEMPERATURES
IN THOSE AREAS TOWARD MID-WEEK. NEEDLESS TO SAY...TEMPERATURES APPEAR
DESTINED TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 154 AM EDT SUNDAY...

ONE AREA OF SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDER WAS DIRECTLY UPSTREAM FROM
KDAN SO HAVE GONE PESSIMISTIC THERE FOR THE INITIAL ONE TO TWO
HOUR PERIOD. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY WEAKENING SO
WILL AMEND AS NEEDED.

AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE POOR TODAY AS A CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPS ALOFT STAYS JUST TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE A
SURFACE LOW SLIDES INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA ALONG THE
OLD LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN WAVERING ABOUT FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL ESTABLISH A DEEP AND PERSISTENT
E/SE WIND FLOW WITH EXCELLENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE TAF
SITES. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT BEFORE BOUNCING BACK UP TO AOA VFR BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS HOLDING OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON
WHEN THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER. THERE ARE
INDICATIONS FOR SPOTTY IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT DO NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN EXACTLY WHERE/WHEN SO WILL STAY
PESSIMISTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDOWS
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR VFR CONDITIONS INCREASE TUE. UPPER LOW/TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO OHIO BY MONDAY. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE OH VALLEY BY WED. THIS LEAVES A VERY
UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH
IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR-
VFR OUTSIDE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOONS. AT THIS
POINT...TUESDAY APPEARS TO OFFER THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR VAZ007-009-010-012.
NC...NONE.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR WVZ042-043-507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...AMS/MBS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...PM/RAB
AVIATION...AMS/MBS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 050916
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
516 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY FROM EAST TENNESSEE TODAY TOWARD
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY LATE MONDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY...THEN
STALL AND LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 515 AM EDT SUNDAY...

A CLOSED LOW WILL BE SPLITTING OFF FROM THE MEAN TROF AND SLOWLY
MOVING OVER THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE AREA UP
FOR SOME WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND DEEP E/SE
FLOW WITH GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT GENERATING PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES APPROACHING TWO INCHES. THANKFULLY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE
NOT AS WET AS THEY COULD HAVE BEEN AND THE MOST VULNERABLE AREAS TO
HYDRO CONCERNS ARE FROM THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION UP THROUGH
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...SO A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR
THOSE COUNTIES FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT.

AS THE LOW SPINS SLOWLY TO OUR WEST...WE WILL SEE A BIT OF A DRY SOT
WORK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SEVERAL MODELS ARE QUITE AGGRESSIVE WITH
SHUTTING DOWN THE PRECIPITATION QUICKLY BUT WITH A CLOSED LOW AND
DECENT SYNOPTIC SUPPORT IN PLACE WILL SHADE THINGS TOWARD THE
SLOWER/WETTER SOLUTIONS.

WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED WE SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES TODAY JUST A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH
LOW/MID 80S EAST TO LOW/MID 70S WEST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY
BE 65 TO 70 EAST...WITH 60 TO 65 WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT SUNDAY...

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE NEAR THE VA/WV/KY BORDER INTERSECTION AT
12Z MON...DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN PA BY EVENING. THE
WARM ADVECTION AND HEAVIEST PART OF THE RAINFALL SHOULD BE LIFTING
TOWARD THE I-64 CORRIDOR AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD...THEN INTO
NORTHERN VA/WV BY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS IT DOES SO...A BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL DEVELOP ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. SOMEWHAT OF A
DRY SLOT IS EVIDENT WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE PIEDMONT AND AREAS
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS
DURING THE MORNING SHOULD FOCUS MORE TOWARD THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PART OF THE CWA BY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN THESE AREAS AFTER SUNSET. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN DURING THE DAY SHOULD FALL ROUGHLY NEAR THE I-77 AND
I-64 CORRIDORS WITH THE COMBINED EFFECT OF WARM ADVECTION RAINFALL
EARLY IN THE EVENT...TRANSITIONING TO DEFORMATION RAINFALL WEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO A FEW
SPOTTY SHOWERS ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH AN
ANTICIPATED DRY SLOT IN THAT REGION. WILL HOLD ONTO LIKELY POPS
ACROSS WEST MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH POPS DECREASING INTO THE SLIGHT
CHANCE CATEGORY NC COUNTIES BY EVENING. QPF AFT 12Z SHOULD RANGE
FROM 3/4 INCH IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TO 1/4 INCH IN THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA. THIS RAINFALL SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO
EXACERBATE ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
EVALUATE IF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL NEED TO CONTINUE BEYOND THE
CURRENT 10Z MON EXPIRATION.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL HAVE MOVED FAR ENOUGH NORTH
AWAY FROM THE AREA...AS WELL AS SHEARING OUT...THAT ANY ASSOCIATED
RAINFALL ACROSS OUR REGION SHOULD HAVE ENDED. LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY DRIZZLE MAY LINGER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BUT NO
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

FOR TUESDAY...PROGRESSIVE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES WILL
QUICKLY PUSH A NEW FRONTAL ZONE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK UPPER TROUGH
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. LINEAR ORIENTED...POTENTIALLY
STRONG CONVECTION...APPEARS LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY REACH WESTERN WV/FAR SOUTHWEST VA AND THEN DIMINISH AS
IT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE LESS FAVORABLE
EVENING HOURS. THIS AGREES WELL WITH THE MARGINAL RISK SPC HAS
ADVERTISED ON DAY 3 ENDING JUST SHY OF OUR WESTERN BORDER.
OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY SHOULD OFFER A MINIMUM OF
PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CWA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. HAVE GENERALLY ADVERTISED ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH A WARM...MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE...BUT DYNAMICS WILL BE LIMITED AT BEST.

WEDNESDAY HAS BECOME MORE PROBLEMATIC TODAY AMONG THE MODELS THAN
INDICATED YESTERDAY AS A RESULT OF INCREASED SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS ALLOWS THE TUESDAY FRONT TO
DRIFT INTO THE CWA AND THEN LIFT BACK NORTH. IT SHOULD LINGER LONG
ENOUGH IN THE REGION WEDNESDAY TO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
IF NOT NUMEROUS CONVECTION DURING AFTERNOON HEATING.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN. HOWEVER...EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE SOME INSOLATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WE
SHOULD SEE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THOSE AREAS.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FINALLY REACH ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS IN MUCH OF
THE CWA TUESDAY WITH INCREASED AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AND SOUTHWEST
SURFACE FLOW. WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES CLOSER
TO NORMAL AGAIN WEDNESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...THANKS TO CONTINUED HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT SUNDAY...

EXTENDED PERIOD TRENDING WARMER...BUT STILL SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED.
MODELS...TO VARYING DEGREES...ADVERTISING AN INTENSIFYING UPPER
RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE
GFS/CANADIAN ARE STRONGEST WITH THE UPPER RIDGE...THE ECMWF IS THE
WEAKEST...KEEPING A MORE ACTIVE WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
AT ANY RATE...INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER THAN IN RECENT DAYS.
AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THURSDAY SHOULD OFFER THE BEST
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME
MORE UNFAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED CONVECTION THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER RIDGING TAKING HOLD OF
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. THIS SHOULD PUSH THE MORE ACTIVE
BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO OH/PA/MD/NJ. WILL NEED TO WATCH LATER TRENDS
OF THE MODELS TO MAKE SURE THIS TREND CONTINUES...AS OPPOSED TO
SHIFTING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE FURTHER SOUTH AND WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...SHOULD THE UPPER RIDGE DRIFT FURTHER WEST AND REMAIN
LESS AMPLIFIED THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED.

WITH THE UPPER RIDGING...WE WILL HAVE TO START TALKING ABOUT HIGHS
IN THE 90S AGAIN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH
WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70...SO WILL NEED TO WATCH APPARENT TEMPERATURES
IN THOSE AREAS TOWARD MID-WEEK. NEEDLESS TO SAY...TEMPERATURES APPEAR
DESTINED TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 154 AM EDT SUNDAY...

ONE AREA OF SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDER WAS DIRECTLY UPSTREAM FROM
KDAN SO HAVE GONE PESSIMISTIC THERE FOR THE INITIAL ONE TO TWO
HOUR PERIOD. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY WEAKENING SO
WILL AMEND AS NEEDED.

AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE POOR TODAY AS A CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPS ALOFT STAYS JUST TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE A
SURFACE LOW SLIDES INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA ALONG THE
OLD LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN WAVERING ABOUT FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL ESTABLISH A DEEP AND PERSISTENT
E/SE WIND FLOW WITH EXCELLENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE TAF
SITES. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT BEFORE BOUNCING BACK UP TO AOA VFR BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS HOLDING OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON
WHEN THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER. THERE ARE
INDICATIONS FOR SPOTTY IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT DO NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN EXACTLY WHERE/WHEN SO WILL STAY
PESSIMISTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDOWS
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR VFR CONDITIONS INCREASE TUE. UPPER LOW/TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO OHIO BY MONDAY. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE OH VALLEY BY WED. THIS LEAVES A VERY
UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH
IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR-
VFR OUTSIDE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOONS. AT THIS
POINT...TUESDAY APPEARS TO OFFER THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR VAZ007-009-010-012.
NC...NONE.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR WVZ042-043-507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...AMS/MBS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...PM/RAB
AVIATION...AMS/MBS



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 050837
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
437 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO
THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FNTL BNDRY HAS STALLED ACRS SRN VA AND WILL RMN NRLY STATIONARY
INTO THIS AFTN...BEFORE BEGINNING TO MOVE BACK N ONCE AGN LATE
TDA. WILL HAVE A LO CHC FOR SHRAS THROUGH THE MRNG HRS ACRS SRN
VA/NE NC (INVOF/S OF THE BNDRY). THE FAVORED AREA FOR ADDITIONAL
SHRAS/TSTMS THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVE TO RMN ACRS THOSE SAME
AREAS. LCLLY HEAVY RA...AND GUSTY WNDS (SUB-SVR) THE MAIN THREATS
FM ANY STMS. ADDED AREAS OF FG TO AREAS WELL WNW OF RIC (MNLY
LOUISA/FLUVANNA COUNTIES IN VA)...OTRW MOSTLY CLOUDY
CNTRL/S...PARTLY CLOUDY NE TDA. HI TEMPS FM THE U70S AT OCEAN CITY
MD...TO THE L/M80S ELSW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE INTO THE CNTRL MTNS TNGT. MDLS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL PUSH INTO SW
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS EVE...THEN SLOWLY SPREAD N/NE OVERNIGHT
INTO MON. THIS WILL SUPPORT HI CHC TO LIKELY POPS ONCE AGAIN ACRS
MOST OF THE CWA (WILL KEEP POPS A LITTLE LOWER ALG THE CST). LCLLY
HEAVY RA AGN PSBL W/ ANY SHRAS/STMS. MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE
U60S-L70S. VRB CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS TRANSITIONING
A BIT TO THE N AND W AS UPR LVL LO SLOLY EXITS THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS. HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S NW TO THE U80S/ARND 90F SE.
FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER...BUT WARMER BY TUE...WITH JUST 20-30%
POPS MNLY IN THE AFTN/EVE WITH HI TEMPS FM THE M80S RIGHT AT THE
CST TO THE L90S ELSW.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH TUE WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL
VA TO INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF 1/2 INCH OR LESS OVR
MOST OF ERN VA TO THE LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER
AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING
OR REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE COMING WEEK AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE SERN
U.S. AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT FRI/SAT.
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...FRNTL BNDRY WAS LAYING ACRS SRN VA...WITH JUST
ISLTD SHOWERS OVR SCNTRL/SE VA AND NE NC. THAT FRONT WILL LIFT
BACK N ACRS THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTN INTO MON. EXPECT
IFR CONDITIONS AT SBY AND POSSIBLY RIC EARLY THIS MORNG...THEN
MAINLY MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z-14Z. MORE SCTD SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WILL RETURN FOR LATER THIS AFTN INTO MON...DUE TO FRNTL
BNDRY LIFTING THRU THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE N OF THE REGION
MON NGT/TUE MORNG...WITH A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED
FOR TUE INTO WED. ISLTD LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU MON NGT. A FRNTL BNDRY
THAT WAS LAYING ACRS SRN VA EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL LIFT BACK N
ACRS THE REGION AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTN INTO MON. NNE
WINDS OR WSW WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT EARLY TODAY...WILL TURN TO THE
SE OR S FOR TNGT THRU MON. WINDS WILL THEN BE SSW AOB 15 KT
TUE/WED IN ADVANCE OF NEXT COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
2-4 FT THRU MIDWEEK...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT ON THE CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 050837
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
437 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO
THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FNTL BNDRY HAS STALLED ACRS SRN VA AND WILL RMN NRLY STATIONARY
INTO THIS AFTN...BEFORE BEGINNING TO MOVE BACK N ONCE AGN LATE
TDA. WILL HAVE A LO CHC FOR SHRAS THROUGH THE MRNG HRS ACRS SRN
VA/NE NC (INVOF/S OF THE BNDRY). THE FAVORED AREA FOR ADDITIONAL
SHRAS/TSTMS THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVE TO RMN ACRS THOSE SAME
AREAS. LCLLY HEAVY RA...AND GUSTY WNDS (SUB-SVR) THE MAIN THREATS
FM ANY STMS. ADDED AREAS OF FG TO AREAS WELL WNW OF RIC (MNLY
LOUISA/FLUVANNA COUNTIES IN VA)...OTRW MOSTLY CLOUDY
CNTRL/S...PARTLY CLOUDY NE TDA. HI TEMPS FM THE U70S AT OCEAN CITY
MD...TO THE L/M80S ELSW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE INTO THE CNTRL MTNS TNGT. MDLS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL PUSH INTO SW
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS EVE...THEN SLOWLY SPREAD N/NE OVERNIGHT
INTO MON. THIS WILL SUPPORT HI CHC TO LIKELY POPS ONCE AGAIN ACRS
MOST OF THE CWA (WILL KEEP POPS A LITTLE LOWER ALG THE CST). LCLLY
HEAVY RA AGN PSBL W/ ANY SHRAS/STMS. MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE
U60S-L70S. VRB CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS TRANSITIONING
A BIT TO THE N AND W AS UPR LVL LO SLOLY EXITS THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS. HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S NW TO THE U80S/ARND 90F SE.
FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER...BUT WARMER BY TUE...WITH JUST 20-30%
POPS MNLY IN THE AFTN/EVE WITH HI TEMPS FM THE M80S RIGHT AT THE
CST TO THE L90S ELSW.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH TUE WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL
VA TO INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF 1/2 INCH OR LESS OVR
MOST OF ERN VA TO THE LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER
AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING
OR REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE COMING WEEK AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE SERN
U.S. AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT FRI/SAT.
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...FRNTL BNDRY WAS LAYING ACRS SRN VA...WITH JUST
ISLTD SHOWERS OVR SCNTRL/SE VA AND NE NC. THAT FRONT WILL LIFT
BACK N ACRS THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTN INTO MON. EXPECT
IFR CONDITIONS AT SBY AND POSSIBLY RIC EARLY THIS MORNG...THEN
MAINLY MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z-14Z. MORE SCTD SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WILL RETURN FOR LATER THIS AFTN INTO MON...DUE TO FRNTL
BNDRY LIFTING THRU THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE N OF THE REGION
MON NGT/TUE MORNG...WITH A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED
FOR TUE INTO WED. ISLTD LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU MON NGT. A FRNTL BNDRY
THAT WAS LAYING ACRS SRN VA EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL LIFT BACK N
ACRS THE REGION AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTN INTO MON. NNE
WINDS OR WSW WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT EARLY TODAY...WILL TURN TO THE
SE OR S FOR TNGT THRU MON. WINDS WILL THEN BE SSW AOB 15 KT
TUE/WED IN ADVANCE OF NEXT COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
2-4 FT THRU MIDWEEK...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT ON THE CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG



000
FXUS61 KLWX 050800
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL SHIFT EAST LATE THIS
MORNING. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY...THEN STALL AND
SLOWLY DISSIPATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...

AS OF 07Z...1019MB SFC HIGH OVER SWRN PA WITH AN UPR LOW APPARENT
OVER THE TN VLY IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE LOW
HAVE OVERSPREAD THE ARE RIDING A 60 KT W-SWLY JET STREAM. THE HIGH
CLOUDS AND SOME MIXING ELY/SELY FLOW HAVE LIMITED FOG DEVELOPMENT
PRIMARILY TO THE VA PIEDMONT AND N-CNTRL SHENANDOAH VALLEY. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THIS FURTHER AS IT WAS THOUGHT THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY WOULD NEED TO COVER A LARGER AREA BY THIS POINT IN THE
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM PA LATE THIS MORNING. HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKEN A BIT AS THE UPR LOW DRIFTS
TOWARD THE AREA. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTS INTO THE SWRN
ZONES LATER THIS MORNING WITH POPS INCREASING IN ELY FLOW.
HOWEVER...THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT INSOLATION AND THUS THE
INSTABILITY. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN AT LEAST SCATTERED
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

UPR LOW DRIFTS TO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LWX IN
THE WARM SECTOR WITH THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT OVER THE
AREA...PROVIDING CONVERGENT FORCING. POPS ROUGHLY INCREASE AND
SPREAD NE OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH A RAINY
PERIOD THIS EVENING TO MONDAY EVENING FOR MOST OF THE CWA. WITH
LIMITED INSTABILITY...EXPECT MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.

MONDAY...SOME RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER EAST FROM THE BLUE RIDGE AS
UPR LOW IS ANCHORED OVER THE ALLEGHENIES. LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD
EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A MARGINAL RISK...THOUGH IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
OFFICIALLY BE ONE IN THE DAY 2 OUTLOOK FROM SPC.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT OUT MONDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS RESULTING
FROM IT COULD LINGER INTO TUE IF THE LOW IS SLOW...BUT NOT
EXPECTING THAT AT THIS TIME AND HAVE MINIMIZED POPS FOR TUE DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE LOW. THE NEXT WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION WED...BUT ONLY CHANCE POPS ON WED WITH THAT. WITH THE FRONT
STALLING AND WASHING OUT THU THRU SAT...MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
DURING THAT PERIOD. TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD...ONLY WAVERING A FEW DEGREES FROM DAY TO DAY. TYPICAL JULY
WEATHER IN THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. HOWEVER...LIGHT MIXING AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE KEPT CONDS
MVFR FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN TONIGHT
WITH RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSTMS SHIFT NORTH ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. RAINY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING ACROSS
THE AREA WITH IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIEST ACTIVITY.

OTHER THAN TSTMS...NO AVIATION CONCERNS TUE THRU SATURDAY. WINDS
LIGHT...BELOW 10 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...

LIGHT ELY FLOW TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM PA. SELY FLOW
AROUND 10 KT TONIGHT...SHIFTING S MONDAY. SLY CHANNELING POSSIBLE BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR SRN MD WATER SCA
TOWARD MONDAY EVENING.

OTHER THAN TSTMS...NO MARINE CONCERNS TUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ026-027-
     029-030-039-040-050>053-055>057-501-502.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ535.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CAS
NEAR TERM...BAJ
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...CAS
AVIATION...BAJ/CAS
MARINE...BAJ/CAS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 050800
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL SHIFT EAST LATE THIS
MORNING. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY...THEN STALL AND
SLOWLY DISSIPATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...

AS OF 07Z...1019MB SFC HIGH OVER SWRN PA WITH AN UPR LOW APPARENT
OVER THE TN VLY IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE LOW
HAVE OVERSPREAD THE ARE RIDING A 60 KT W-SWLY JET STREAM. THE HIGH
CLOUDS AND SOME MIXING ELY/SELY FLOW HAVE LIMITED FOG DEVELOPMENT
PRIMARILY TO THE VA PIEDMONT AND N-CNTRL SHENANDOAH VALLEY. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THIS FURTHER AS IT WAS THOUGHT THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY WOULD NEED TO COVER A LARGER AREA BY THIS POINT IN THE
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM PA LATE THIS MORNING. HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKEN A BIT AS THE UPR LOW DRIFTS
TOWARD THE AREA. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTS INTO THE SWRN
ZONES LATER THIS MORNING WITH POPS INCREASING IN ELY FLOW.
HOWEVER...THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT INSOLATION AND THUS THE
INSTABILITY. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN AT LEAST SCATTERED
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

UPR LOW DRIFTS TO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LWX IN
THE WARM SECTOR WITH THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT OVER THE
AREA...PROVIDING CONVERGENT FORCING. POPS ROUGHLY INCREASE AND
SPREAD NE OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH A RAINY
PERIOD THIS EVENING TO MONDAY EVENING FOR MOST OF THE CWA. WITH
LIMITED INSTABILITY...EXPECT MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.

MONDAY...SOME RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER EAST FROM THE BLUE RIDGE AS
UPR LOW IS ANCHORED OVER THE ALLEGHENIES. LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD
EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A MARGINAL RISK...THOUGH IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
OFFICIALLY BE ONE IN THE DAY 2 OUTLOOK FROM SPC.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT OUT MONDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS RESULTING
FROM IT COULD LINGER INTO TUE IF THE LOW IS SLOW...BUT NOT
EXPECTING THAT AT THIS TIME AND HAVE MINIMIZED POPS FOR TUE DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE LOW. THE NEXT WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION WED...BUT ONLY CHANCE POPS ON WED WITH THAT. WITH THE FRONT
STALLING AND WASHING OUT THU THRU SAT...MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
DURING THAT PERIOD. TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD...ONLY WAVERING A FEW DEGREES FROM DAY TO DAY. TYPICAL JULY
WEATHER IN THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. HOWEVER...LIGHT MIXING AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE KEPT CONDS
MVFR FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN TONIGHT
WITH RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSTMS SHIFT NORTH ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. RAINY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING ACROSS
THE AREA WITH IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIEST ACTIVITY.

OTHER THAN TSTMS...NO AVIATION CONCERNS TUE THRU SATURDAY. WINDS
LIGHT...BELOW 10 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...

LIGHT ELY FLOW TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM PA. SELY FLOW
AROUND 10 KT TONIGHT...SHIFTING S MONDAY. SLY CHANNELING POSSIBLE BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR SRN MD WATER SCA
TOWARD MONDAY EVENING.

OTHER THAN TSTMS...NO MARINE CONCERNS TUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ026-027-
     029-030-039-040-050>053-055>057-501-502.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ535.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CAS
NEAR TERM...BAJ
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...CAS
AVIATION...BAJ/CAS
MARINE...BAJ/CAS



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 050800
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
400 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO
THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FNTL BNDRY HAS STALLED ACRS SRN VA AND WILL RMN NRLY STATIONARY
INTO THIS AFTN...BEFORE BEGINNING TO MOVE BACK N ONCE AGN LATE
TDA. WILL HAVE A LO CHC FOR SHRAS THROUGH THE MRNG HRS ACRS SRN
VA/NE NC (INVOF/S OF THE BNDRY). THE FAVORED AREA FOR ADDITIONAL
SHRAS/TSTMS THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVE TO RMN ACRS THOSE SAME
AREAS. LCLLY HEAVY RA...AND GUSTY WNDS (SUB-SVR) THE MAIN THREATS
FM ANY STMS. ADDED AREAS OF FG TO AREAS WELL WNW OF RIC (MNLY
LOUISA/FLUVANNA COUNTIES IN VA)...OTRW MOSTLY CLOUDY
CNTRL/S...PARTLY CLOUDY NE TDA. HI TEMPS FM THE U70S AT OCEAN CITY
MD...TO THE L/M80S ELSW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE INTO THE CNTRL MTNS TNGT. MDLS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL PUSH INTO SW
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS EVE...THEN SLOWLY SPREAD N/NE OVERNIGHT
INTO MON. THIS WILL SUPPORT HI CHC TO LIKELY POPS ONCE AGAIN ACRS
MOST OF THE CWA (WILL KEEP POPS A LITTLE LOWER ALG THE CST). LCLLY
HEAVY RA AGN PSBL W/ ANY SHRAS/STMS. MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE
U60S-L70S. VRB CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS TRANSITIONING
A BIT TO THE N AND W AS UPR LVL LO SLOLY EXITS THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS. HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S NW TO THE U80S/ARND 90F SE.
FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER...BUT WARMER BY TUE...WITH JUST 20-30%
POPS MNLY IN THE AFTN/EVE WITH HI TEMPS FM THE M80S RIGHT AT THE
CST TO THE L90S ELSW.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH TUE WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL
VA TO INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF 1/2 INCH OR LESS OVR
MOST OF ERN VA TO THE LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER
AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING
OR REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE COMING WEEK AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE SERN
U.S. AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT FRI/SAT.
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...FRNTL BNDRY WAS LAYING ACRS SRN VA...WITH JUST
ISLTD SHOWERS OVR SCNTRL/SE VA AND NE NC. THAT FRONT WILL LIFT
BACK N ACRS THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTN INTO MON. EXPECT
IFR CONDITIONS AT SBY AND POSSIBLY RIC EARLY THIS MORNG...THEN
MAINLY MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z-14Z. MORE SCTD SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WILL RETURN FOR LATER THIS AFTN INTO MON...DUE TO FRNTL
BNDRY LIFTING THRU THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE N OF THE REGION
MON NGT/TUE MORNG...WITH A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED
FOR TUE INTO WED. ISLTD LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MD WATERS THIS AFTN
WILL DROP SOUTH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE
VA/NC BORDER ON SUNDAY. MAINLY W-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL VEER AROUND TO THE N-NE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...EXCEPT
NEAR/SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER WHERE THEY`LL REMAIN W-SW AOB 15 KT.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING E-SE AOB 15 KT ALL WATERS. LIGHT E-SE WINDS CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING S-SW AOB 15 KT TUE/WED. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN 2-3 FT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT ON THE
CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 050800
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
400 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO
THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FNTL BNDRY HAS STALLED ACRS SRN VA AND WILL RMN NRLY STATIONARY
INTO THIS AFTN...BEFORE BEGINNING TO MOVE BACK N ONCE AGN LATE
TDA. WILL HAVE A LO CHC FOR SHRAS THROUGH THE MRNG HRS ACRS SRN
VA/NE NC (INVOF/S OF THE BNDRY). THE FAVORED AREA FOR ADDITIONAL
SHRAS/TSTMS THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVE TO RMN ACRS THOSE SAME
AREAS. LCLLY HEAVY RA...AND GUSTY WNDS (SUB-SVR) THE MAIN THREATS
FM ANY STMS. ADDED AREAS OF FG TO AREAS WELL WNW OF RIC (MNLY
LOUISA/FLUVANNA COUNTIES IN VA)...OTRW MOSTLY CLOUDY
CNTRL/S...PARTLY CLOUDY NE TDA. HI TEMPS FM THE U70S AT OCEAN CITY
MD...TO THE L/M80S ELSW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE INTO THE CNTRL MTNS TNGT. MDLS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL PUSH INTO SW
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS EVE...THEN SLOWLY SPREAD N/NE OVERNIGHT
INTO MON. THIS WILL SUPPORT HI CHC TO LIKELY POPS ONCE AGAIN ACRS
MOST OF THE CWA (WILL KEEP POPS A LITTLE LOWER ALG THE CST). LCLLY
HEAVY RA AGN PSBL W/ ANY SHRAS/STMS. MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE
U60S-L70S. VRB CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS TRANSITIONING
A BIT TO THE N AND W AS UPR LVL LO SLOLY EXITS THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS. HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S NW TO THE U80S/ARND 90F SE.
FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER...BUT WARMER BY TUE...WITH JUST 20-30%
POPS MNLY IN THE AFTN/EVE WITH HI TEMPS FM THE M80S RIGHT AT THE
CST TO THE L90S ELSW.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH TUE WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL
VA TO INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF 1/2 INCH OR LESS OVR
MOST OF ERN VA TO THE LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER
AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING
OR REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE COMING WEEK AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE SERN
U.S. AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT FRI/SAT.
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...FRNTL BNDRY WAS LAYING ACRS SRN VA...WITH JUST
ISLTD SHOWERS OVR SCNTRL/SE VA AND NE NC. THAT FRONT WILL LIFT
BACK N ACRS THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTN INTO MON. EXPECT
IFR CONDITIONS AT SBY AND POSSIBLY RIC EARLY THIS MORNG...THEN
MAINLY MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z-14Z. MORE SCTD SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WILL RETURN FOR LATER THIS AFTN INTO MON...DUE TO FRNTL
BNDRY LIFTING THRU THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE N OF THE REGION
MON NGT/TUE MORNG...WITH A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED
FOR TUE INTO WED. ISLTD LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MD WATERS THIS AFTN
WILL DROP SOUTH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE
VA/NC BORDER ON SUNDAY. MAINLY W-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL VEER AROUND TO THE N-NE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...EXCEPT
NEAR/SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER WHERE THEY`LL REMAIN W-SW AOB 15 KT.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING E-SE AOB 15 KT ALL WATERS. LIGHT E-SE WINDS CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING S-SW AOB 15 KT TUE/WED. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN 2-3 FT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT ON THE
CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 050800
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
400 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO
THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FNTL BNDRY HAS STALLED ACRS SRN VA AND WILL RMN NRLY STATIONARY
INTO THIS AFTN...BEFORE BEGINNING TO MOVE BACK N ONCE AGN LATE
TDA. WILL HAVE A LO CHC FOR SHRAS THROUGH THE MRNG HRS ACRS SRN
VA/NE NC (INVOF/S OF THE BNDRY). THE FAVORED AREA FOR ADDITIONAL
SHRAS/TSTMS THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVE TO RMN ACRS THOSE SAME
AREAS. LCLLY HEAVY RA...AND GUSTY WNDS (SUB-SVR) THE MAIN THREATS
FM ANY STMS. ADDED AREAS OF FG TO AREAS WELL WNW OF RIC (MNLY
LOUISA/FLUVANNA COUNTIES IN VA)...OTRW MOSTLY CLOUDY
CNTRL/S...PARTLY CLOUDY NE TDA. HI TEMPS FM THE U70S AT OCEAN CITY
MD...TO THE L/M80S ELSW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE INTO THE CNTRL MTNS TNGT. MDLS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL PUSH INTO SW
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS EVE...THEN SLOWLY SPREAD N/NE OVERNIGHT
INTO MON. THIS WILL SUPPORT HI CHC TO LIKELY POPS ONCE AGAIN ACRS
MOST OF THE CWA (WILL KEEP POPS A LITTLE LOWER ALG THE CST). LCLLY
HEAVY RA AGN PSBL W/ ANY SHRAS/STMS. MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE
U60S-L70S. VRB CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS TRANSITIONING
A BIT TO THE N AND W AS UPR LVL LO SLOLY EXITS THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS. HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S NW TO THE U80S/ARND 90F SE.
FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER...BUT WARMER BY TUE...WITH JUST 20-30%
POPS MNLY IN THE AFTN/EVE WITH HI TEMPS FM THE M80S RIGHT AT THE
CST TO THE L90S ELSW.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH TUE WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL
VA TO INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF 1/2 INCH OR LESS OVR
MOST OF ERN VA TO THE LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER
AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING
OR REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE COMING WEEK AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE SERN
U.S. AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT FRI/SAT.
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...FRNTL BNDRY WAS LAYING ACRS SRN VA...WITH JUST
ISLTD SHOWERS OVR SCNTRL/SE VA AND NE NC. THAT FRONT WILL LIFT
BACK N ACRS THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTN INTO MON. EXPECT
IFR CONDITIONS AT SBY AND POSSIBLY RIC EARLY THIS MORNG...THEN
MAINLY MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z-14Z. MORE SCTD SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WILL RETURN FOR LATER THIS AFTN INTO MON...DUE TO FRNTL
BNDRY LIFTING THRU THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE N OF THE REGION
MON NGT/TUE MORNG...WITH A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED
FOR TUE INTO WED. ISLTD LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MD WATERS THIS AFTN
WILL DROP SOUTH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE
VA/NC BORDER ON SUNDAY. MAINLY W-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL VEER AROUND TO THE N-NE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...EXCEPT
NEAR/SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER WHERE THEY`LL REMAIN W-SW AOB 15 KT.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING E-SE AOB 15 KT ALL WATERS. LIGHT E-SE WINDS CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING S-SW AOB 15 KT TUE/WED. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN 2-3 FT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT ON THE
CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 050800
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
400 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO
THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FNTL BNDRY HAS STALLED ACRS SRN VA AND WILL RMN NRLY STATIONARY
INTO THIS AFTN...BEFORE BEGINNING TO MOVE BACK N ONCE AGN LATE
TDA. WILL HAVE A LO CHC FOR SHRAS THROUGH THE MRNG HRS ACRS SRN
VA/NE NC (INVOF/S OF THE BNDRY). THE FAVORED AREA FOR ADDITIONAL
SHRAS/TSTMS THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVE TO RMN ACRS THOSE SAME
AREAS. LCLLY HEAVY RA...AND GUSTY WNDS (SUB-SVR) THE MAIN THREATS
FM ANY STMS. ADDED AREAS OF FG TO AREAS WELL WNW OF RIC (MNLY
LOUISA/FLUVANNA COUNTIES IN VA)...OTRW MOSTLY CLOUDY
CNTRL/S...PARTLY CLOUDY NE TDA. HI TEMPS FM THE U70S AT OCEAN CITY
MD...TO THE L/M80S ELSW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE INTO THE CNTRL MTNS TNGT. MDLS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL PUSH INTO SW
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS EVE...THEN SLOWLY SPREAD N/NE OVERNIGHT
INTO MON. THIS WILL SUPPORT HI CHC TO LIKELY POPS ONCE AGAIN ACRS
MOST OF THE CWA (WILL KEEP POPS A LITTLE LOWER ALG THE CST). LCLLY
HEAVY RA AGN PSBL W/ ANY SHRAS/STMS. MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE
U60S-L70S. VRB CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS TRANSITIONING
A BIT TO THE N AND W AS UPR LVL LO SLOLY EXITS THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS. HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S NW TO THE U80S/ARND 90F SE.
FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER...BUT WARMER BY TUE...WITH JUST 20-30%
POPS MNLY IN THE AFTN/EVE WITH HI TEMPS FM THE M80S RIGHT AT THE
CST TO THE L90S ELSW.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH TUE WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL
VA TO INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF 1/2 INCH OR LESS OVR
MOST OF ERN VA TO THE LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER
AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING
OR REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE COMING WEEK AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE SERN
U.S. AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT FRI/SAT.
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...FRNTL BNDRY WAS LAYING ACRS SRN VA...WITH JUST
ISLTD SHOWERS OVR SCNTRL/SE VA AND NE NC. THAT FRONT WILL LIFT
BACK N ACRS THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTN INTO MON. EXPECT
IFR CONDITIONS AT SBY AND POSSIBLY RIC EARLY THIS MORNG...THEN
MAINLY MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z-14Z. MORE SCTD SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WILL RETURN FOR LATER THIS AFTN INTO MON...DUE TO FRNTL
BNDRY LIFTING THRU THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE N OF THE REGION
MON NGT/TUE MORNG...WITH A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED
FOR TUE INTO WED. ISLTD LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MD WATERS THIS AFTN
WILL DROP SOUTH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE
VA/NC BORDER ON SUNDAY. MAINLY W-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL VEER AROUND TO THE N-NE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...EXCEPT
NEAR/SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER WHERE THEY`LL REMAIN W-SW AOB 15 KT.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING E-SE AOB 15 KT ALL WATERS. LIGHT E-SE WINDS CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING S-SW AOB 15 KT TUE/WED. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN 2-3 FT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT ON THE
CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 050607
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
207 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO
THE LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW PRESSURE SE OF CAPE
COD...WITH A TRAILING BOUNDARY EXTENDING SW BACK INTO ERN/SRN VA.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
ALOFT...SOMEWHAT OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN EXISTS...WITH ONE UPPER
TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA...AND ANOTHER LAGGING WELL OFF TO OUR SW
ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH/GULF COAST STATES. THE CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVING OFF THE VA ERN SHORE...WITH
ISO-SCT ACTIVITY BACK ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VA. THIS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...AND UPPER LEVEL RRQ FORCING FROM
250-300 MB UPPER LEVEL JET.

OVERALL...RADAR DATA SUGGESTS A DIMINISHING TREND...AND RAP/HRRR
SUPPORT THIS AS WELL. GIVEN THIS...POPS HAVE BEEN TRENDED DOWN
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...VARIABLY CLOUDY NW TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SE. LOWS
IN THE MID-UPPER 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE VA/NC
BORDER EARLY SUN...THEN WILL MOVE BACK N ONCE AGN LATER SUN INTO
MON AS LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE FM THE GULF STATES TO THE CNTRL
MTNS. THERE RMN SOME MDL INCONSISTENCIES IN THIS SCENARIO...LARGELY
RELATING TO TIMING AND WHERE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF TAKES PLACE.

THE FAVORED AREA OF ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS ON SUN LIKELY TO BE FM
SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE NC INVOF STALLED FNTL BNDRY. MOSTLY
CLOUDY S...PARTLY CLOUDY NE SUN. HI TEMPS SUN MNLY IN THE L/M80S.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF INTO GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL
PUSH INTO SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUN EVENING...AND SLOWLY SPREAD
N/NE OVERNIGHT INTO MON. THIS WILL SUPPORT LIKELY POPS ONCE AGAIN
ACRS MOST OF THE CWA (WILL KEEP POPS A LITTLE LOWER ALONG THE
COAST). MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB CLDS- MOSTLY
CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS TRANSITIONING A BIT TO THE N/W AS UPPER
LOW APPROACHES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HI TEMPS IN THE L 80S NW
TO THE UPPER 80S SE. FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER BY TUE...WITH JUST
20-3% POPS MAINLY IN THE AFTN/EVENING WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
80S/AROUND 90 F.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH TUE (MOST OF IT OCCURRING TONIGHT INTO
MON) WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE
NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF ABT 1/2 INCH OVR THE LWR MD ERN SHORE.
HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS
(1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT
PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE COMING WEEK AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE SERN
U.S. AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT FRI/SAT.
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...FRNTL BNDRY WAS LAYING ACRS SRN VA...WITH JUST
ISLTD SHOWERS OVR SCNTRL/SE VA AND NE NC. THAT FRONT WILL LIFT
BACK N ACRS THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTN INTO MON. EXPECT
IFR CONDITIONS AT SBY AND POSSIBLY RIC EARLY THIS MORNG...THEN
MAINLY MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z-14Z. MORE SCTD SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WILL RETURN FOR LATER THIS AFTN INTO MON...DUE TO FRNTL
BNDRY LIFTING THRU THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE N OF THE REGION
MON NGT/TUE MORNG...WITH A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED
FOR TUE INTO WED. ISLTD LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MD WATERS THIS AFTN
WILL DROP SOUTH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE
VA/NC BORDER ON SUNDAY. MAINLY W-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL VEER AROUND TO THE N-NE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...EXCEPT
NEAR/SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER WHERE THEY`LL REMAIN W-SW AOB 15 KT.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING E-SE AOB 15 KT ALL WATERS. LIGHT E-SE WINDS CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING S-SW AOB 15 KT TUE/WED. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN 2-3 FT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT ON THE
CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...JDM/TMG



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 050607
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
207 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO
THE LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW PRESSURE SE OF CAPE
COD...WITH A TRAILING BOUNDARY EXTENDING SW BACK INTO ERN/SRN VA.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
ALOFT...SOMEWHAT OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN EXISTS...WITH ONE UPPER
TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA...AND ANOTHER LAGGING WELL OFF TO OUR SW
ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH/GULF COAST STATES. THE CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVING OFF THE VA ERN SHORE...WITH
ISO-SCT ACTIVITY BACK ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VA. THIS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...AND UPPER LEVEL RRQ FORCING FROM
250-300 MB UPPER LEVEL JET.

OVERALL...RADAR DATA SUGGESTS A DIMINISHING TREND...AND RAP/HRRR
SUPPORT THIS AS WELL. GIVEN THIS...POPS HAVE BEEN TRENDED DOWN
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...VARIABLY CLOUDY NW TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SE. LOWS
IN THE MID-UPPER 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE VA/NC
BORDER EARLY SUN...THEN WILL MOVE BACK N ONCE AGN LATER SUN INTO
MON AS LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE FM THE GULF STATES TO THE CNTRL
MTNS. THERE RMN SOME MDL INCONSISTENCIES IN THIS SCENARIO...LARGELY
RELATING TO TIMING AND WHERE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF TAKES PLACE.

THE FAVORED AREA OF ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS ON SUN LIKELY TO BE FM
SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE NC INVOF STALLED FNTL BNDRY. MOSTLY
CLOUDY S...PARTLY CLOUDY NE SUN. HI TEMPS SUN MNLY IN THE L/M80S.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF INTO GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL
PUSH INTO SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUN EVENING...AND SLOWLY SPREAD
N/NE OVERNIGHT INTO MON. THIS WILL SUPPORT LIKELY POPS ONCE AGAIN
ACRS MOST OF THE CWA (WILL KEEP POPS A LITTLE LOWER ALONG THE
COAST). MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB CLDS- MOSTLY
CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS TRANSITIONING A BIT TO THE N/W AS UPPER
LOW APPROACHES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HI TEMPS IN THE L 80S NW
TO THE UPPER 80S SE. FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER BY TUE...WITH JUST
20-3% POPS MAINLY IN THE AFTN/EVENING WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
80S/AROUND 90 F.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH TUE (MOST OF IT OCCURRING TONIGHT INTO
MON) WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE
NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF ABT 1/2 INCH OVR THE LWR MD ERN SHORE.
HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS
(1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT
PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE COMING WEEK AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE SERN
U.S. AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT FRI/SAT.
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...FRNTL BNDRY WAS LAYING ACRS SRN VA...WITH JUST
ISLTD SHOWERS OVR SCNTRL/SE VA AND NE NC. THAT FRONT WILL LIFT
BACK N ACRS THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTN INTO MON. EXPECT
IFR CONDITIONS AT SBY AND POSSIBLY RIC EARLY THIS MORNG...THEN
MAINLY MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z-14Z. MORE SCTD SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WILL RETURN FOR LATER THIS AFTN INTO MON...DUE TO FRNTL
BNDRY LIFTING THRU THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE N OF THE REGION
MON NGT/TUE MORNG...WITH A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED
FOR TUE INTO WED. ISLTD LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MD WATERS THIS AFTN
WILL DROP SOUTH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE
VA/NC BORDER ON SUNDAY. MAINLY W-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL VEER AROUND TO THE N-NE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...EXCEPT
NEAR/SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER WHERE THEY`LL REMAIN W-SW AOB 15 KT.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING E-SE AOB 15 KT ALL WATERS. LIGHT E-SE WINDS CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING S-SW AOB 15 KT TUE/WED. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN 2-3 FT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT ON THE
CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...JDM/TMG



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 050607
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
207 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO
THE LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW PRESSURE SE OF CAPE
COD...WITH A TRAILING BOUNDARY EXTENDING SW BACK INTO ERN/SRN VA.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
ALOFT...SOMEWHAT OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN EXISTS...WITH ONE UPPER
TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA...AND ANOTHER LAGGING WELL OFF TO OUR SW
ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH/GULF COAST STATES. THE CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVING OFF THE VA ERN SHORE...WITH
ISO-SCT ACTIVITY BACK ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VA. THIS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...AND UPPER LEVEL RRQ FORCING FROM
250-300 MB UPPER LEVEL JET.

OVERALL...RADAR DATA SUGGESTS A DIMINISHING TREND...AND RAP/HRRR
SUPPORT THIS AS WELL. GIVEN THIS...POPS HAVE BEEN TRENDED DOWN
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...VARIABLY CLOUDY NW TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SE. LOWS
IN THE MID-UPPER 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE VA/NC
BORDER EARLY SUN...THEN WILL MOVE BACK N ONCE AGN LATER SUN INTO
MON AS LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE FM THE GULF STATES TO THE CNTRL
MTNS. THERE RMN SOME MDL INCONSISTENCIES IN THIS SCENARIO...LARGELY
RELATING TO TIMING AND WHERE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF TAKES PLACE.

THE FAVORED AREA OF ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS ON SUN LIKELY TO BE FM
SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE NC INVOF STALLED FNTL BNDRY. MOSTLY
CLOUDY S...PARTLY CLOUDY NE SUN. HI TEMPS SUN MNLY IN THE L/M80S.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF INTO GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL
PUSH INTO SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUN EVENING...AND SLOWLY SPREAD
N/NE OVERNIGHT INTO MON. THIS WILL SUPPORT LIKELY POPS ONCE AGAIN
ACRS MOST OF THE CWA (WILL KEEP POPS A LITTLE LOWER ALONG THE
COAST). MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB CLDS- MOSTLY
CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS TRANSITIONING A BIT TO THE N/W AS UPPER
LOW APPROACHES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HI TEMPS IN THE L 80S NW
TO THE UPPER 80S SE. FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER BY TUE...WITH JUST
20-3% POPS MAINLY IN THE AFTN/EVENING WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
80S/AROUND 90 F.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH TUE (MOST OF IT OCCURRING TONIGHT INTO
MON) WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE
NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF ABT 1/2 INCH OVR THE LWR MD ERN SHORE.
HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS
(1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT
PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE COMING WEEK AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE SERN
U.S. AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT FRI/SAT.
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...FRNTL BNDRY WAS LAYING ACRS SRN VA...WITH JUST
ISLTD SHOWERS OVR SCNTRL/SE VA AND NE NC. THAT FRONT WILL LIFT
BACK N ACRS THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTN INTO MON. EXPECT
IFR CONDITIONS AT SBY AND POSSIBLY RIC EARLY THIS MORNG...THEN
MAINLY MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z-14Z. MORE SCTD SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WILL RETURN FOR LATER THIS AFTN INTO MON...DUE TO FRNTL
BNDRY LIFTING THRU THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE N OF THE REGION
MON NGT/TUE MORNG...WITH A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED
FOR TUE INTO WED. ISLTD LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MD WATERS THIS AFTN
WILL DROP SOUTH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE
VA/NC BORDER ON SUNDAY. MAINLY W-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL VEER AROUND TO THE N-NE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...EXCEPT
NEAR/SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER WHERE THEY`LL REMAIN W-SW AOB 15 KT.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING E-SE AOB 15 KT ALL WATERS. LIGHT E-SE WINDS CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING S-SW AOB 15 KT TUE/WED. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN 2-3 FT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT ON THE
CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...JDM/TMG



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 050607
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
207 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO
THE LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW PRESSURE SE OF CAPE
COD...WITH A TRAILING BOUNDARY EXTENDING SW BACK INTO ERN/SRN VA.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
ALOFT...SOMEWHAT OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN EXISTS...WITH ONE UPPER
TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA...AND ANOTHER LAGGING WELL OFF TO OUR SW
ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH/GULF COAST STATES. THE CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVING OFF THE VA ERN SHORE...WITH
ISO-SCT ACTIVITY BACK ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VA. THIS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...AND UPPER LEVEL RRQ FORCING FROM
250-300 MB UPPER LEVEL JET.

OVERALL...RADAR DATA SUGGESTS A DIMINISHING TREND...AND RAP/HRRR
SUPPORT THIS AS WELL. GIVEN THIS...POPS HAVE BEEN TRENDED DOWN
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...VARIABLY CLOUDY NW TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SE. LOWS
IN THE MID-UPPER 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE VA/NC
BORDER EARLY SUN...THEN WILL MOVE BACK N ONCE AGN LATER SUN INTO
MON AS LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE FM THE GULF STATES TO THE CNTRL
MTNS. THERE RMN SOME MDL INCONSISTENCIES IN THIS SCENARIO...LARGELY
RELATING TO TIMING AND WHERE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF TAKES PLACE.

THE FAVORED AREA OF ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS ON SUN LIKELY TO BE FM
SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE NC INVOF STALLED FNTL BNDRY. MOSTLY
CLOUDY S...PARTLY CLOUDY NE SUN. HI TEMPS SUN MNLY IN THE L/M80S.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF INTO GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL
PUSH INTO SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUN EVENING...AND SLOWLY SPREAD
N/NE OVERNIGHT INTO MON. THIS WILL SUPPORT LIKELY POPS ONCE AGAIN
ACRS MOST OF THE CWA (WILL KEEP POPS A LITTLE LOWER ALONG THE
COAST). MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB CLDS- MOSTLY
CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS TRANSITIONING A BIT TO THE N/W AS UPPER
LOW APPROACHES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HI TEMPS IN THE L 80S NW
TO THE UPPER 80S SE. FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER BY TUE...WITH JUST
20-3% POPS MAINLY IN THE AFTN/EVENING WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
80S/AROUND 90 F.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH TUE (MOST OF IT OCCURRING TONIGHT INTO
MON) WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE
NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF ABT 1/2 INCH OVR THE LWR MD ERN SHORE.
HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS
(1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT
PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE COMING WEEK AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE SERN
U.S. AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT FRI/SAT.
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...FRNTL BNDRY WAS LAYING ACRS SRN VA...WITH JUST
ISLTD SHOWERS OVR SCNTRL/SE VA AND NE NC. THAT FRONT WILL LIFT
BACK N ACRS THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTN INTO MON. EXPECT
IFR CONDITIONS AT SBY AND POSSIBLY RIC EARLY THIS MORNG...THEN
MAINLY MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z-14Z. MORE SCTD SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WILL RETURN FOR LATER THIS AFTN INTO MON...DUE TO FRNTL
BNDRY LIFTING THRU THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE N OF THE REGION
MON NGT/TUE MORNG...WITH A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED
FOR TUE INTO WED. ISLTD LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MD WATERS THIS AFTN
WILL DROP SOUTH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE
VA/NC BORDER ON SUNDAY. MAINLY W-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL VEER AROUND TO THE N-NE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...EXCEPT
NEAR/SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER WHERE THEY`LL REMAIN W-SW AOB 15 KT.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING E-SE AOB 15 KT ALL WATERS. LIGHT E-SE WINDS CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING S-SW AOB 15 KT TUE/WED. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN 2-3 FT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT ON THE
CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...JDM/TMG



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 050607
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
207 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO
THE LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW PRESSURE SE OF CAPE
COD...WITH A TRAILING BOUNDARY EXTENDING SW BACK INTO ERN/SRN VA.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
ALOFT...SOMEWHAT OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN EXISTS...WITH ONE UPPER
TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA...AND ANOTHER LAGGING WELL OFF TO OUR SW
ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH/GULF COAST STATES. THE CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVING OFF THE VA ERN SHORE...WITH
ISO-SCT ACTIVITY BACK ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VA. THIS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...AND UPPER LEVEL RRQ FORCING FROM
250-300 MB UPPER LEVEL JET.

OVERALL...RADAR DATA SUGGESTS A DIMINISHING TREND...AND RAP/HRRR
SUPPORT THIS AS WELL. GIVEN THIS...POPS HAVE BEEN TRENDED DOWN
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...VARIABLY CLOUDY NW TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SE. LOWS
IN THE MID-UPPER 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE VA/NC
BORDER EARLY SUN...THEN WILL MOVE BACK N ONCE AGN LATER SUN INTO
MON AS LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE FM THE GULF STATES TO THE CNTRL
MTNS. THERE RMN SOME MDL INCONSISTENCIES IN THIS SCENARIO...LARGELY
RELATING TO TIMING AND WHERE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF TAKES PLACE.

THE FAVORED AREA OF ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS ON SUN LIKELY TO BE FM
SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE NC INVOF STALLED FNTL BNDRY. MOSTLY
CLOUDY S...PARTLY CLOUDY NE SUN. HI TEMPS SUN MNLY IN THE L/M80S.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF INTO GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL
PUSH INTO SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUN EVENING...AND SLOWLY SPREAD
N/NE OVERNIGHT INTO MON. THIS WILL SUPPORT LIKELY POPS ONCE AGAIN
ACRS MOST OF THE CWA (WILL KEEP POPS A LITTLE LOWER ALONG THE
COAST). MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB CLDS- MOSTLY
CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS TRANSITIONING A BIT TO THE N/W AS UPPER
LOW APPROACHES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HI TEMPS IN THE L 80S NW
TO THE UPPER 80S SE. FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER BY TUE...WITH JUST
20-3% POPS MAINLY IN THE AFTN/EVENING WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
80S/AROUND 90 F.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH TUE (MOST OF IT OCCURRING TONIGHT INTO
MON) WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE
NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF ABT 1/2 INCH OVR THE LWR MD ERN SHORE.
HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS
(1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT
PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE COMING WEEK AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE SERN
U.S. AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT FRI/SAT.
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...FRNTL BNDRY WAS LAYING ACRS SRN VA...WITH JUST
ISLTD SHOWERS OVR SCNTRL/SE VA AND NE NC. THAT FRONT WILL LIFT
BACK N ACRS THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTN INTO MON. EXPECT
IFR CONDITIONS AT SBY AND POSSIBLY RIC EARLY THIS MORNG...THEN
MAINLY MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z-14Z. MORE SCTD SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WILL RETURN FOR LATER THIS AFTN INTO MON...DUE TO FRNTL
BNDRY LIFTING THRU THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE N OF THE REGION
MON NGT/TUE MORNG...WITH A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED
FOR TUE INTO WED. ISLTD LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MD WATERS THIS AFTN
WILL DROP SOUTH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE
VA/NC BORDER ON SUNDAY. MAINLY W-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL VEER AROUND TO THE N-NE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...EXCEPT
NEAR/SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER WHERE THEY`LL REMAIN W-SW AOB 15 KT.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING E-SE AOB 15 KT ALL WATERS. LIGHT E-SE WINDS CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING S-SW AOB 15 KT TUE/WED. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN 2-3 FT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT ON THE
CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...JDM/TMG



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 050607
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
207 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO
THE LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW PRESSURE SE OF CAPE
COD...WITH A TRAILING BOUNDARY EXTENDING SW BACK INTO ERN/SRN VA.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
ALOFT...SOMEWHAT OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN EXISTS...WITH ONE UPPER
TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA...AND ANOTHER LAGGING WELL OFF TO OUR SW
ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH/GULF COAST STATES. THE CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVING OFF THE VA ERN SHORE...WITH
ISO-SCT ACTIVITY BACK ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VA. THIS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...AND UPPER LEVEL RRQ FORCING FROM
250-300 MB UPPER LEVEL JET.

OVERALL...RADAR DATA SUGGESTS A DIMINISHING TREND...AND RAP/HRRR
SUPPORT THIS AS WELL. GIVEN THIS...POPS HAVE BEEN TRENDED DOWN
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...VARIABLY CLOUDY NW TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SE. LOWS
IN THE MID-UPPER 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE VA/NC
BORDER EARLY SUN...THEN WILL MOVE BACK N ONCE AGN LATER SUN INTO
MON AS LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE FM THE GULF STATES TO THE CNTRL
MTNS. THERE RMN SOME MDL INCONSISTENCIES IN THIS SCENARIO...LARGELY
RELATING TO TIMING AND WHERE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF TAKES PLACE.

THE FAVORED AREA OF ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS ON SUN LIKELY TO BE FM
SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE NC INVOF STALLED FNTL BNDRY. MOSTLY
CLOUDY S...PARTLY CLOUDY NE SUN. HI TEMPS SUN MNLY IN THE L/M80S.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF INTO GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL
PUSH INTO SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUN EVENING...AND SLOWLY SPREAD
N/NE OVERNIGHT INTO MON. THIS WILL SUPPORT LIKELY POPS ONCE AGAIN
ACRS MOST OF THE CWA (WILL KEEP POPS A LITTLE LOWER ALONG THE
COAST). MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB CLDS- MOSTLY
CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS TRANSITIONING A BIT TO THE N/W AS UPPER
LOW APPROACHES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HI TEMPS IN THE L 80S NW
TO THE UPPER 80S SE. FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER BY TUE...WITH JUST
20-3% POPS MAINLY IN THE AFTN/EVENING WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
80S/AROUND 90 F.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH TUE (MOST OF IT OCCURRING TONIGHT INTO
MON) WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE
NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF ABT 1/2 INCH OVR THE LWR MD ERN SHORE.
HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS
(1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT
PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE COMING WEEK AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE SERN
U.S. AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT FRI/SAT.
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...FRNTL BNDRY WAS LAYING ACRS SRN VA...WITH JUST
ISLTD SHOWERS OVR SCNTRL/SE VA AND NE NC. THAT FRONT WILL LIFT
BACK N ACRS THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTN INTO MON. EXPECT
IFR CONDITIONS AT SBY AND POSSIBLY RIC EARLY THIS MORNG...THEN
MAINLY MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z-14Z. MORE SCTD SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WILL RETURN FOR LATER THIS AFTN INTO MON...DUE TO FRNTL
BNDRY LIFTING THRU THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE N OF THE REGION
MON NGT/TUE MORNG...WITH A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED
FOR TUE INTO WED. ISLTD LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MD WATERS THIS AFTN
WILL DROP SOUTH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE
VA/NC BORDER ON SUNDAY. MAINLY W-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL VEER AROUND TO THE N-NE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...EXCEPT
NEAR/SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER WHERE THEY`LL REMAIN W-SW AOB 15 KT.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING E-SE AOB 15 KT ALL WATERS. LIGHT E-SE WINDS CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING S-SW AOB 15 KT TUE/WED. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN 2-3 FT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT ON THE
CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...JDM/TMG




000
FXUS61 KRNK 050554
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
154 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...KEEPING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK...AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT SATURDAY...

SEVERAL MODELS SHOWING PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED UPPER
LOW OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE INCREASED THE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN THAT AREA FROM 2AM THROUGH 8AM
SUNDAY.

A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO TRAVEL EAST ALONG THE UPPER TROUGH. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME NUMEROUS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK
CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND ITS SUBSEQUENT
NORTHWARD DRIFT INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.TAIL END OF LONG
STANDING EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL BECOME CUTOFF ACROSS NORTHERN
GA/AL/EASTERN TN FROM THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH...WHICH WILL SHEAR
OUT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE DRIFTS INTO THE OH
VALLEY. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO
MON...FINALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY AS THE NEXT
UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH FROM GA IT TAKES ON A NEGATIVE
TILT...WHICH WILL FURTHER ENHANCE OVERALL WEAK DYNAMICS/LIFT AND
CERTAINLY PROLONG THE WET WEATHER PATTERN. ABUNDANT DEEP MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH PWATS IN THE 1.75 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. EXTENSIVE TO NEAR SOLID CLOUD COVER WILL
LIMIT HEATING...SO INSTABILITIES REMAIN MEAGER AND OVERALL
DYNAMICS ARE WEAK.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A LARGE SWATH OF DEEP
MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW AND OVERRUNNING EXISTING
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...TRACKING FROM GA/SC NORTHWARD INTO THE
RNK CWA BY SUN AFTERNOON...DRIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
CWA MON...THEN FINALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE CWA BY TUE. THIS
WILL SUPPORT HIGH PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH A LIMITED DIURNAL SWING
OF TEMPERATURE GIVEN THE UPPER LOW WILL ESSENTIALLY BE DRIFTING
RIGHT ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CWA.

THE PATH OF THE UPPER LOW SHOULD FOCUS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA...BLUE RIDGE AND WEST.
WITH 3HR FFG VALUES AVERAGING IN THE 1.5 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA AND THE RECENT PROLONGED WET SPELL...WE WILL NEED
TO MONITOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS CAREFULLY...HOWEVER...THE LACK OF ANY
ORGANIZED OR STRONG CONVECTION...GIVEN THE MEAGER LAPSE RATES AND
LACK OF INSTABILITY/DYNAMICS...SHOULD HOLD HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
IN CHECK. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THREAT OF POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
IN THE HWO...BUT POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE A CONCERN ATTM.

AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA TUE...WE SHOULD SEE
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TO FINALLY SQUELCH THE SHOWER THREAT
PROVIDING A BREAK BEFORE NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES TUESDAY
NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MON...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES TUESDAY WITH GREATER
INSOLATION. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGH PWATS/DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 445 PM EDT SATURDAY...

UNSETTLED WEATHER DESTINED TO CONTINUE. AFTER A VERY BRIEF
RESPITE FROM WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TUESDAY...A NEW FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL DRIFT INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY AND
THEN BECOME ELONGATED WEST-EAST ACROSS THE REGION AND STALL FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO OUR
SOUTH AND FASTER WESTERLIES TO OUR NORTH...THIS WILL FAVOR ACTIVE
BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH DAILY THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. PATTERN
SUPPORTS SOME ORGANIZATION OF STORM ACTIVITY AND POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS PER PRESENCE OF WITH ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE ENERGY THAT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE FASTER
WESTERLIES TO OUR NORTH.

THE UPPER FLOW ATTEMPTS TO TRANSITION BACK TO NORTHWEST FLOW
TOWARD THE WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WEST-
CENTRAL CONUS. THIS COULD REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED
CONVECTION/RAINFALL...BUT WILL NONETHELESS SUPPORT AN ACTIVE AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN.

WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE LEVELS CONTINUING...EXPECT
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES AND WELL ABOVE
NORMAL MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 154 AM EDT SUNDAY...

ONE AREA OF SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDER WAS DIRECTLY UPSTREAM FROM
KDAN SO HAVE GONE PESSIMISTIC THERE FOR THE INITIAL ONE TO TWO
HOUR PERIOD. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY WEAKENING SO
WILL AMEND AS NEEDED.

AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE POOR TODAY AS A CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPS ALOFT STAYS JUST TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE A
SURFACE LOW SLIDES INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA ALONG THE
OLD LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN WAVERING ABOUT FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL ESTABLISH A DEEP AND PERSISTENT
E/SE WIND FLOW WITH EXCELLENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE TAF
SITES. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT BEFORE BOUNCING BACK UP TO AOA VFR BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS HOLDING OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON
WHEN THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER. THERE ARE
INDICATIONS FOR SPOTTY IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT DO NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN EXACTLY WHERE/WHEN SO WILL STAY
PESSIMISTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDOWS
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR VFR CONDITIONS INCREASE TUE. UPPER LOW/TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO OHIO BY MONDAY. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE OH VALLEY BY WED. THIS LEAVES A VERY
UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH
IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR-
VFR OUTSIDE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOONS. AT THIS
POINT...TUESDAY APPEARS TO OFFER THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM/RAB
AVIATION...MBS/AMS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 050554
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
154 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...KEEPING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK...AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT SATURDAY...

SEVERAL MODELS SHOWING PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED UPPER
LOW OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE INCREASED THE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN THAT AREA FROM 2AM THROUGH 8AM
SUNDAY.

A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO TRAVEL EAST ALONG THE UPPER TROUGH. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME NUMEROUS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK
CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND ITS SUBSEQUENT
NORTHWARD DRIFT INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.TAIL END OF LONG
STANDING EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL BECOME CUTOFF ACROSS NORTHERN
GA/AL/EASTERN TN FROM THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH...WHICH WILL SHEAR
OUT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE DRIFTS INTO THE OH
VALLEY. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO
MON...FINALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY AS THE NEXT
UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH FROM GA IT TAKES ON A NEGATIVE
TILT...WHICH WILL FURTHER ENHANCE OVERALL WEAK DYNAMICS/LIFT AND
CERTAINLY PROLONG THE WET WEATHER PATTERN. ABUNDANT DEEP MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH PWATS IN THE 1.75 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. EXTENSIVE TO NEAR SOLID CLOUD COVER WILL
LIMIT HEATING...SO INSTABILITIES REMAIN MEAGER AND OVERALL
DYNAMICS ARE WEAK.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A LARGE SWATH OF DEEP
MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW AND OVERRUNNING EXISTING
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...TRACKING FROM GA/SC NORTHWARD INTO THE
RNK CWA BY SUN AFTERNOON...DRIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
CWA MON...THEN FINALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE CWA BY TUE. THIS
WILL SUPPORT HIGH PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH A LIMITED DIURNAL SWING
OF TEMPERATURE GIVEN THE UPPER LOW WILL ESSENTIALLY BE DRIFTING
RIGHT ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CWA.

THE PATH OF THE UPPER LOW SHOULD FOCUS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA...BLUE RIDGE AND WEST.
WITH 3HR FFG VALUES AVERAGING IN THE 1.5 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA AND THE RECENT PROLONGED WET SPELL...WE WILL NEED
TO MONITOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS CAREFULLY...HOWEVER...THE LACK OF ANY
ORGANIZED OR STRONG CONVECTION...GIVEN THE MEAGER LAPSE RATES AND
LACK OF INSTABILITY/DYNAMICS...SHOULD HOLD HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
IN CHECK. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THREAT OF POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
IN THE HWO...BUT POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE A CONCERN ATTM.

AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA TUE...WE SHOULD SEE
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TO FINALLY SQUELCH THE SHOWER THREAT
PROVIDING A BREAK BEFORE NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES TUESDAY
NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MON...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES TUESDAY WITH GREATER
INSOLATION. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGH PWATS/DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 445 PM EDT SATURDAY...

UNSETTLED WEATHER DESTINED TO CONTINUE. AFTER A VERY BRIEF
RESPITE FROM WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TUESDAY...A NEW FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL DRIFT INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY AND
THEN BECOME ELONGATED WEST-EAST ACROSS THE REGION AND STALL FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO OUR
SOUTH AND FASTER WESTERLIES TO OUR NORTH...THIS WILL FAVOR ACTIVE
BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH DAILY THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. PATTERN
SUPPORTS SOME ORGANIZATION OF STORM ACTIVITY AND POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS PER PRESENCE OF WITH ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE ENERGY THAT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE FASTER
WESTERLIES TO OUR NORTH.

THE UPPER FLOW ATTEMPTS TO TRANSITION BACK TO NORTHWEST FLOW
TOWARD THE WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WEST-
CENTRAL CONUS. THIS COULD REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED
CONVECTION/RAINFALL...BUT WILL NONETHELESS SUPPORT AN ACTIVE AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN.

WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE LEVELS CONTINUING...EXPECT
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES AND WELL ABOVE
NORMAL MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 154 AM EDT SUNDAY...

ONE AREA OF SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDER WAS DIRECTLY UPSTREAM FROM
KDAN SO HAVE GONE PESSIMISTIC THERE FOR THE INITIAL ONE TO TWO
HOUR PERIOD. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY WEAKENING SO
WILL AMEND AS NEEDED.

AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE POOR TODAY AS A CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPS ALOFT STAYS JUST TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE A
SURFACE LOW SLIDES INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA ALONG THE
OLD LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN WAVERING ABOUT FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL ESTABLISH A DEEP AND PERSISTENT
E/SE WIND FLOW WITH EXCELLENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE TAF
SITES. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT BEFORE BOUNCING BACK UP TO AOA VFR BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS HOLDING OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON
WHEN THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER. THERE ARE
INDICATIONS FOR SPOTTY IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT DO NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN EXACTLY WHERE/WHEN SO WILL STAY
PESSIMISTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDOWS
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR VFR CONDITIONS INCREASE TUE. UPPER LOW/TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO OHIO BY MONDAY. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE OH VALLEY BY WED. THIS LEAVES A VERY
UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH
IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR-
VFR OUTSIDE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOONS. AT THIS
POINT...TUESDAY APPEARS TO OFFER THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM/RAB
AVIATION...MBS/AMS



000
FXUS61 KRNK 050554
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
154 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...KEEPING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK...AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT SATURDAY...

SEVERAL MODELS SHOWING PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED UPPER
LOW OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE INCREASED THE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN THAT AREA FROM 2AM THROUGH 8AM
SUNDAY.

A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO TRAVEL EAST ALONG THE UPPER TROUGH. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME NUMEROUS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK
CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND ITS SUBSEQUENT
NORTHWARD DRIFT INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.TAIL END OF LONG
STANDING EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL BECOME CUTOFF ACROSS NORTHERN
GA/AL/EASTERN TN FROM THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH...WHICH WILL SHEAR
OUT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE DRIFTS INTO THE OH
VALLEY. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO
MON...FINALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY AS THE NEXT
UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH FROM GA IT TAKES ON A NEGATIVE
TILT...WHICH WILL FURTHER ENHANCE OVERALL WEAK DYNAMICS/LIFT AND
CERTAINLY PROLONG THE WET WEATHER PATTERN. ABUNDANT DEEP MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH PWATS IN THE 1.75 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. EXTENSIVE TO NEAR SOLID CLOUD COVER WILL
LIMIT HEATING...SO INSTABILITIES REMAIN MEAGER AND OVERALL
DYNAMICS ARE WEAK.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A LARGE SWATH OF DEEP
MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW AND OVERRUNNING EXISTING
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...TRACKING FROM GA/SC NORTHWARD INTO THE
RNK CWA BY SUN AFTERNOON...DRIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
CWA MON...THEN FINALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE CWA BY TUE. THIS
WILL SUPPORT HIGH PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH A LIMITED DIURNAL SWING
OF TEMPERATURE GIVEN THE UPPER LOW WILL ESSENTIALLY BE DRIFTING
RIGHT ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CWA.

THE PATH OF THE UPPER LOW SHOULD FOCUS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA...BLUE RIDGE AND WEST.
WITH 3HR FFG VALUES AVERAGING IN THE 1.5 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA AND THE RECENT PROLONGED WET SPELL...WE WILL NEED
TO MONITOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS CAREFULLY...HOWEVER...THE LACK OF ANY
ORGANIZED OR STRONG CONVECTION...GIVEN THE MEAGER LAPSE RATES AND
LACK OF INSTABILITY/DYNAMICS...SHOULD HOLD HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
IN CHECK. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THREAT OF POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
IN THE HWO...BUT POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE A CONCERN ATTM.

AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA TUE...WE SHOULD SEE
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TO FINALLY SQUELCH THE SHOWER THREAT
PROVIDING A BREAK BEFORE NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES TUESDAY
NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MON...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES TUESDAY WITH GREATER
INSOLATION. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGH PWATS/DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 445 PM EDT SATURDAY...

UNSETTLED WEATHER DESTINED TO CONTINUE. AFTER A VERY BRIEF
RESPITE FROM WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TUESDAY...A NEW FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL DRIFT INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY AND
THEN BECOME ELONGATED WEST-EAST ACROSS THE REGION AND STALL FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO OUR
SOUTH AND FASTER WESTERLIES TO OUR NORTH...THIS WILL FAVOR ACTIVE
BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH DAILY THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. PATTERN
SUPPORTS SOME ORGANIZATION OF STORM ACTIVITY AND POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS PER PRESENCE OF WITH ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE ENERGY THAT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE FASTER
WESTERLIES TO OUR NORTH.

THE UPPER FLOW ATTEMPTS TO TRANSITION BACK TO NORTHWEST FLOW
TOWARD THE WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WEST-
CENTRAL CONUS. THIS COULD REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED
CONVECTION/RAINFALL...BUT WILL NONETHELESS SUPPORT AN ACTIVE AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN.

WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE LEVELS CONTINUING...EXPECT
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES AND WELL ABOVE
NORMAL MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 154 AM EDT SUNDAY...

ONE AREA OF SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDER WAS DIRECTLY UPSTREAM FROM
KDAN SO HAVE GONE PESSIMISTIC THERE FOR THE INITIAL ONE TO TWO
HOUR PERIOD. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY WEAKENING SO
WILL AMEND AS NEEDED.

AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE POOR TODAY AS A CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPS ALOFT STAYS JUST TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE A
SURFACE LOW SLIDES INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA ALONG THE
OLD LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN WAVERING ABOUT FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL ESTABLISH A DEEP AND PERSISTENT
E/SE WIND FLOW WITH EXCELLENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE TAF
SITES. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT BEFORE BOUNCING BACK UP TO AOA VFR BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS HOLDING OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON
WHEN THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER. THERE ARE
INDICATIONS FOR SPOTTY IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT DO NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN EXACTLY WHERE/WHEN SO WILL STAY
PESSIMISTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDOWS
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR VFR CONDITIONS INCREASE TUE. UPPER LOW/TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO OHIO BY MONDAY. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE OH VALLEY BY WED. THIS LEAVES A VERY
UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH
IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR-
VFR OUTSIDE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOONS. AT THIS
POINT...TUESDAY APPEARS TO OFFER THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM/RAB
AVIATION...MBS/AMS



000
FXUS61 KRNK 050554
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
154 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...KEEPING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK...AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT SATURDAY...

SEVERAL MODELS SHOWING PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED UPPER
LOW OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE INCREASED THE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN THAT AREA FROM 2AM THROUGH 8AM
SUNDAY.

A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO TRAVEL EAST ALONG THE UPPER TROUGH. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME NUMEROUS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK
CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND ITS SUBSEQUENT
NORTHWARD DRIFT INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.TAIL END OF LONG
STANDING EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL BECOME CUTOFF ACROSS NORTHERN
GA/AL/EASTERN TN FROM THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH...WHICH WILL SHEAR
OUT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE DRIFTS INTO THE OH
VALLEY. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO
MON...FINALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY AS THE NEXT
UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH FROM GA IT TAKES ON A NEGATIVE
TILT...WHICH WILL FURTHER ENHANCE OVERALL WEAK DYNAMICS/LIFT AND
CERTAINLY PROLONG THE WET WEATHER PATTERN. ABUNDANT DEEP MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH PWATS IN THE 1.75 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. EXTENSIVE TO NEAR SOLID CLOUD COVER WILL
LIMIT HEATING...SO INSTABILITIES REMAIN MEAGER AND OVERALL
DYNAMICS ARE WEAK.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A LARGE SWATH OF DEEP
MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW AND OVERRUNNING EXISTING
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...TRACKING FROM GA/SC NORTHWARD INTO THE
RNK CWA BY SUN AFTERNOON...DRIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
CWA MON...THEN FINALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE CWA BY TUE. THIS
WILL SUPPORT HIGH PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH A LIMITED DIURNAL SWING
OF TEMPERATURE GIVEN THE UPPER LOW WILL ESSENTIALLY BE DRIFTING
RIGHT ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CWA.

THE PATH OF THE UPPER LOW SHOULD FOCUS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA...BLUE RIDGE AND WEST.
WITH 3HR FFG VALUES AVERAGING IN THE 1.5 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA AND THE RECENT PROLONGED WET SPELL...WE WILL NEED
TO MONITOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS CAREFULLY...HOWEVER...THE LACK OF ANY
ORGANIZED OR STRONG CONVECTION...GIVEN THE MEAGER LAPSE RATES AND
LACK OF INSTABILITY/DYNAMICS...SHOULD HOLD HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
IN CHECK. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THREAT OF POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
IN THE HWO...BUT POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE A CONCERN ATTM.

AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA TUE...WE SHOULD SEE
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TO FINALLY SQUELCH THE SHOWER THREAT
PROVIDING A BREAK BEFORE NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES TUESDAY
NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MON...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES TUESDAY WITH GREATER
INSOLATION. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGH PWATS/DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 445 PM EDT SATURDAY...

UNSETTLED WEATHER DESTINED TO CONTINUE. AFTER A VERY BRIEF
RESPITE FROM WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TUESDAY...A NEW FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL DRIFT INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY AND
THEN BECOME ELONGATED WEST-EAST ACROSS THE REGION AND STALL FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO OUR
SOUTH AND FASTER WESTERLIES TO OUR NORTH...THIS WILL FAVOR ACTIVE
BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH DAILY THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. PATTERN
SUPPORTS SOME ORGANIZATION OF STORM ACTIVITY AND POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS PER PRESENCE OF WITH ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE ENERGY THAT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE FASTER
WESTERLIES TO OUR NORTH.

THE UPPER FLOW ATTEMPTS TO TRANSITION BACK TO NORTHWEST FLOW
TOWARD THE WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WEST-
CENTRAL CONUS. THIS COULD REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED
CONVECTION/RAINFALL...BUT WILL NONETHELESS SUPPORT AN ACTIVE AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN.

WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE LEVELS CONTINUING...EXPECT
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES AND WELL ABOVE
NORMAL MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 154 AM EDT SUNDAY...

ONE AREA OF SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDER WAS DIRECTLY UPSTREAM FROM
KDAN SO HAVE GONE PESSIMISTIC THERE FOR THE INITIAL ONE TO TWO
HOUR PERIOD. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY WEAKENING SO
WILL AMEND AS NEEDED.

AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE POOR TODAY AS A CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPS ALOFT STAYS JUST TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE A
SURFACE LOW SLIDES INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA ALONG THE
OLD LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN WAVERING ABOUT FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL ESTABLISH A DEEP AND PERSISTENT
E/SE WIND FLOW WITH EXCELLENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE TAF
SITES. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT BEFORE BOUNCING BACK UP TO AOA VFR BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS HOLDING OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON
WHEN THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER. THERE ARE
INDICATIONS FOR SPOTTY IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT DO NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN EXACTLY WHERE/WHEN SO WILL STAY
PESSIMISTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDOWS
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR VFR CONDITIONS INCREASE TUE. UPPER LOW/TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO OHIO BY MONDAY. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE OH VALLEY BY WED. THIS LEAVES A VERY
UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH
IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR-
VFR OUTSIDE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOONS. AT THIS
POINT...TUESDAY APPEARS TO OFFER THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM/RAB
AVIATION...MBS/AMS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 050236
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1036 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...KEEPING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK...AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT SATURDAY...

SEVERAL MODELS SHOWING PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED UPPER
LOW OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE INCREASED THE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN THAT AREA FROM 2AM THROUGH 8AM
SUNDAY.

A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO TRAVEL EAST ALONG THE UPPER TROUGH. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME NUMEROUS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK
CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND ITS SUBSEQUENT
NORTHWARD DRIFT INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.TAIL END OF LONG
STANDING EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL BECOME CUTOFF ACROSS NORTHERN
GA/AL/EASTERN TN FROM THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH...WHICH WILL SHEAR
OUT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE DRIFTS INTO THE OH
VALLEY. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO
MON...FINALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY AS THE NEXT
UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH FROM GA IT TAKES ON A NEGATIVE
TILT...WHICH WILL FURTHER ENHANCE OVERALL WEAK DYNAMICS/LIFT AND
CERTAINLY PROLONG THE WET WEATHER PATTERN. ABUNDANT DEEP MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH PWATS IN THE 1.75 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. EXTENSIVE TO NEAR SOLID CLOUD COVER WILL
LIMIT HEATING...SO INSTABILITIES REMAIN MEAGER AND OVERALL
DYNAMICS ARE WEAK.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A LARGE SWATH OF DEEP
MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW AND OVERRUNNING EXISTING
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...TRACKING FROM GA/SC NORTHWARD INTO THE
RNK CWA BY SUN AFTERNOON...DRIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
CWA MON...THEN FINALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE CWA BY TUE. THIS
WILL SUPPORT HIGH PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH A LIMITED DIURNAL SWING
OF TEMPERATURE GIVEN THE UPPER LOW WILL ESSENTIALLY BE DRIFTING
RIGHT ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CWA.

THE PATH OF THE UPPER LOW SHOULD FOCUS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA...BLUE RIDGE AND WEST.
WITH 3HR FFG VALUES AVERAGING IN THE 1.5 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA AND THE RECENT PROLONGED WET SPELL...WE WILL NEED
TO MONITOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS CAREFULLY...HOWEVER...THE LACK OF ANY
ORGANIZED OR STRONG CONVECTION...GIVEN THE MEAGER LAPSE RATES AND
LACK OF INSTABILITY/DYNAMICS...SHOULD HOLD HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
IN CHECK. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THREAT OF POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
IN THE HWO...BUT POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE A CONCERN ATTM.

AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA TUE...WE SHOULD SEE
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TO FINALLY SQUELCH THE SHOWER THREAT
PROVIDING A BREAK BEFORE NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES TUESDAY
NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MON...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES TUESDAY WITH GREATER
INSOLATION. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGH PWATS/DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 445 PM EDT SATURDAY...

UNSETTLED WEATHER DESTINED TO CONTINUE. AFTER A VERY BRIEF
RESPITE FROM WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TUESDAY...A NEW FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL DRIFT INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY AND
THEN BECOME ELONGATED WEST-EAST ACROSS THE REGION AND STALL FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO OUR
SOUTH AND FASTER WESTERLIES TO OUR NORTH...THIS WILL FAVOR ACTIVE
BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH DAILY THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. PATTERN
SUPPORTS SOME ORGANIZATION OF STORM ACTIVITY AND POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS PER PRESENCE OF WITH ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE ENERGY THAT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE FASTER
WESTERLIES TO OUR NORTH.

THE UPPER FLOW ATTEMPTS TO TRANSITION BACK TO NORTHWEST FLOW
TOWARD THE WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WEST-
CENTRAL CONUS. THIS COULD REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED
CONVECTION/RAINFALL...BUT WILL NONETHELESS SUPPORT AN ACTIVE AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN.

WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE LEVELS CONTINUING...EXPECT
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES AND WELL ABOVE
NORMAL MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 740 PM EDT SATURDAY...

CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE KDAN
AIRPORT WILL BE MORE THAN 10 NM AWAY FROM THE AIRPORT BY THE 00Z
START TIME OF THE TAF. NO OTHER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CLOSE
TO...OR EXPECTED AT THE OTHER (KLWB/KBLF/KBCB/KROA/KLYH) FOR THE
REST OF THE EVENING.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER NORTHEAST VIRGINIA WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE LOW INTO NORTHERN TENNESSEE. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT. EXPECTING IFR STRATUS NORTH AND WEST OF
THE LOW OVERNIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF CEILINGS BELOW
500 FT AT KLWB AND KBLF. LOCATIONS THAT HAD RAIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL ALSO HAVE PATCHY FOG WITH OCCASIONAL
MVFR TO LIFR VISIBILITIES.

A CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY
AND SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
AFTER 12Z/8AM. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THE RAIN
AND WHEN THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL BE...BUT HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDOWS
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR VFR CONDITIONS INCREASE TUE. UPPER LOW/TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO OHIO BY MONDAY. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE OH VALLEY BY WED. THIS LEAVES A VERY
UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH
IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR-
VFR OUTSIDE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOONS. AT THIS
POINT...TUESDAY APPEARS TO OFFER THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM/RAB
AVIATION...AMS/KK




000
FXUS61 KRNK 050236
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1036 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...KEEPING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK...AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT SATURDAY...

SEVERAL MODELS SHOWING PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED UPPER
LOW OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE INCREASED THE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN THAT AREA FROM 2AM THROUGH 8AM
SUNDAY.

A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO TRAVEL EAST ALONG THE UPPER TROUGH. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME NUMEROUS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK
CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND ITS SUBSEQUENT
NORTHWARD DRIFT INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.TAIL END OF LONG
STANDING EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL BECOME CUTOFF ACROSS NORTHERN
GA/AL/EASTERN TN FROM THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH...WHICH WILL SHEAR
OUT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE DRIFTS INTO THE OH
VALLEY. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO
MON...FINALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY AS THE NEXT
UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH FROM GA IT TAKES ON A NEGATIVE
TILT...WHICH WILL FURTHER ENHANCE OVERALL WEAK DYNAMICS/LIFT AND
CERTAINLY PROLONG THE WET WEATHER PATTERN. ABUNDANT DEEP MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH PWATS IN THE 1.75 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. EXTENSIVE TO NEAR SOLID CLOUD COVER WILL
LIMIT HEATING...SO INSTABILITIES REMAIN MEAGER AND OVERALL
DYNAMICS ARE WEAK.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A LARGE SWATH OF DEEP
MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW AND OVERRUNNING EXISTING
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...TRACKING FROM GA/SC NORTHWARD INTO THE
RNK CWA BY SUN AFTERNOON...DRIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
CWA MON...THEN FINALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE CWA BY TUE. THIS
WILL SUPPORT HIGH PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH A LIMITED DIURNAL SWING
OF TEMPERATURE GIVEN THE UPPER LOW WILL ESSENTIALLY BE DRIFTING
RIGHT ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CWA.

THE PATH OF THE UPPER LOW SHOULD FOCUS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA...BLUE RIDGE AND WEST.
WITH 3HR FFG VALUES AVERAGING IN THE 1.5 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA AND THE RECENT PROLONGED WET SPELL...WE WILL NEED
TO MONITOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS CAREFULLY...HOWEVER...THE LACK OF ANY
ORGANIZED OR STRONG CONVECTION...GIVEN THE MEAGER LAPSE RATES AND
LACK OF INSTABILITY/DYNAMICS...SHOULD HOLD HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
IN CHECK. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THREAT OF POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
IN THE HWO...BUT POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE A CONCERN ATTM.

AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA TUE...WE SHOULD SEE
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TO FINALLY SQUELCH THE SHOWER THREAT
PROVIDING A BREAK BEFORE NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES TUESDAY
NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MON...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES TUESDAY WITH GREATER
INSOLATION. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGH PWATS/DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 445 PM EDT SATURDAY...

UNSETTLED WEATHER DESTINED TO CONTINUE. AFTER A VERY BRIEF
RESPITE FROM WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TUESDAY...A NEW FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL DRIFT INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY AND
THEN BECOME ELONGATED WEST-EAST ACROSS THE REGION AND STALL FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO OUR
SOUTH AND FASTER WESTERLIES TO OUR NORTH...THIS WILL FAVOR ACTIVE
BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH DAILY THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. PATTERN
SUPPORTS SOME ORGANIZATION OF STORM ACTIVITY AND POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS PER PRESENCE OF WITH ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE ENERGY THAT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE FASTER
WESTERLIES TO OUR NORTH.

THE UPPER FLOW ATTEMPTS TO TRANSITION BACK TO NORTHWEST FLOW
TOWARD THE WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WEST-
CENTRAL CONUS. THIS COULD REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED
CONVECTION/RAINFALL...BUT WILL NONETHELESS SUPPORT AN ACTIVE AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN.

WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE LEVELS CONTINUING...EXPECT
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES AND WELL ABOVE
NORMAL MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 740 PM EDT SATURDAY...

CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE KDAN
AIRPORT WILL BE MORE THAN 10 NM AWAY FROM THE AIRPORT BY THE 00Z
START TIME OF THE TAF. NO OTHER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CLOSE
TO...OR EXPECTED AT THE OTHER (KLWB/KBLF/KBCB/KROA/KLYH) FOR THE
REST OF THE EVENING.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER NORTHEAST VIRGINIA WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE LOW INTO NORTHERN TENNESSEE. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT. EXPECTING IFR STRATUS NORTH AND WEST OF
THE LOW OVERNIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF CEILINGS BELOW
500 FT AT KLWB AND KBLF. LOCATIONS THAT HAD RAIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL ALSO HAVE PATCHY FOG WITH OCCASIONAL
MVFR TO LIFR VISIBILITIES.

A CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY
AND SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
AFTER 12Z/8AM. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THE RAIN
AND WHEN THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL BE...BUT HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDOWS
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR VFR CONDITIONS INCREASE TUE. UPPER LOW/TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO OHIO BY MONDAY. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE OH VALLEY BY WED. THIS LEAVES A VERY
UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH
IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR-
VFR OUTSIDE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOONS. AT THIS
POINT...TUESDAY APPEARS TO OFFER THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM/RAB
AVIATION...AMS/KK



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 050210
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1010 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO
THE LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW PRESSURE SE OF CAPE
COD...WITH A TRAILING BOUNDARY EXTENDING SW BACK INTO ERN/SRN VA.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
ALOFT...SOMEWHAT OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN EXISTS...WITH ONE UPPER
TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA...AND ANOTHER LAGGING WELL OFF TO OUR SW
ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH/GULF COAST STATES. THE CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVING OFF THE VA ERN SHORE...WITH
ISO-SCT ACTIVITY BACK ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VA. THIS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...AND UPPER LEVEL RRQ FORCING FROM
250-300 MB UPPER LEVEL JET.

OVERALL...RADAR DATA SUGGESTS A DIMINISHING TREND...AND RAP/HRRR
SUPPORT THIS AS WELL. GIVEN THIS...POPS HAVE BEEN TRENDED DOWN
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...VARIABLY CLOUDY NW TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SE. LOWS
IN THE MID-UPPER 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE VA/NC
BORDER EARLY SUN...THEN WILL MOVE BACK N ONCE AGN LATER SUN INTO
MON AS LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE FM THE GULF STATES TO THE CNTRL
MTNS. THERE RMN SOME MDL INCONSISTENCIES IN THIS SCENARIO...LARGELY
RELATING TO TIMING AND WHERE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF TAKES PLACE.

THE FAVORED AREA OF ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS ON SUN LIKELY TO BE FM
SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE NC INVOF STALLED FNTL BNDRY. MOSTLY
CLOUDY S...PARTLY CLOUDY NE SUN. HI TEMPS SUN MNLY IN THE L/M80S.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF INTO GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL
PUSH INTO SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUN EVENING...AND SLOWLY SPREAD
N/NE OVERNIGHT INTO MON. THIS WILL SUPPORT LIKELY POPS ONCE AGAIN
ACRS MOST OF THE CWA (WILL KEEP POPS A LITTLE LOWER ALONG THE
COAST). MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB CLDS- MOSTLY
CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS TRANSITIONING A BIT TO THE N/W AS UPPER
LOW APPROACHES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HI TEMPS IN THE L 80S NW
TO THE UPPER 80S SE. FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER BY TUE...WITH JUST
20-3% POPS MAINLY IN THE AFTN/EVENING WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
80S/AROUND 90 F.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH TUE (MOST OF IT OCCURRING TONIGHT INTO
MON) WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE
NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF ABT 1/2 INCH OVR THE LWR MD ERN SHORE.
HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS
(1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT
PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE COMING WEEK AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE SERN
U.S. AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT FRI/SAT.
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN EAST WEST ORIENTED FRONT WAS SITUATED NEAR THE MD/VA BORDER AT
23Z. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH TOWARD THE VA/NC BORDER
OVERNIGHT.

A BAND OF SHOWERS AND DISSIPATING THUNDERSTORMS WAS PASSING THROUGH
EASTERN VIRGINIA AND THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND AT THE 00Z
TAF ISSUANCE. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS WAS EXPECTING TO IMPACT PHF AND ORF NEAR THE BEGINNING OF THE
TAF PERIOD. ONCE THIS PCPN MOVES OFF THE COAST...EXPECT A PERIOD OF
MOSTLY VFR BEFORE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SETS IN. MOST OF THIS SHOULD BE
IN THE MVFR CATEGORY BUT SBY AND RIC MAY SEE IFR CONDITIONS TOWARD
MORNING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE MID TO LATE MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR MORE CONVECTION LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY.

TSTM CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED INTO MONDAY AS THE STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WITH A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN DEVELOPING THEREAFTER. LATE DAY AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WIDELY SCATTERED THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MD WATERS THIS AFTN
WILL DROP SOUTH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE
VA/NC BORDER ON SUNDAY. MAINLY W-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL VEER AROUND TO THE N-NE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...EXCEPT
NEAR/SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER WHERE THEY`LL REMAIN W-SW AOB 15 KT.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING E-SE AOB 15 KT ALL WATERS. LIGHT E-SE WINDS CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING S-SW AOB 15 KT TUE/WED. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN 2-3 FT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT ON THE
CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...JDM



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 050210
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1010 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO
THE LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW PRESSURE SE OF CAPE
COD...WITH A TRAILING BOUNDARY EXTENDING SW BACK INTO ERN/SRN VA.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
ALOFT...SOMEWHAT OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN EXISTS...WITH ONE UPPER
TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA...AND ANOTHER LAGGING WELL OFF TO OUR SW
ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH/GULF COAST STATES. THE CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVING OFF THE VA ERN SHORE...WITH
ISO-SCT ACTIVITY BACK ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VA. THIS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...AND UPPER LEVEL RRQ FORCING FROM
250-300 MB UPPER LEVEL JET.

OVERALL...RADAR DATA SUGGESTS A DIMINISHING TREND...AND RAP/HRRR
SUPPORT THIS AS WELL. GIVEN THIS...POPS HAVE BEEN TRENDED DOWN
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...VARIABLY CLOUDY NW TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SE. LOWS
IN THE MID-UPPER 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE VA/NC
BORDER EARLY SUN...THEN WILL MOVE BACK N ONCE AGN LATER SUN INTO
MON AS LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE FM THE GULF STATES TO THE CNTRL
MTNS. THERE RMN SOME MDL INCONSISTENCIES IN THIS SCENARIO...LARGELY
RELATING TO TIMING AND WHERE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF TAKES PLACE.

THE FAVORED AREA OF ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS ON SUN LIKELY TO BE FM
SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE NC INVOF STALLED FNTL BNDRY. MOSTLY
CLOUDY S...PARTLY CLOUDY NE SUN. HI TEMPS SUN MNLY IN THE L/M80S.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF INTO GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL
PUSH INTO SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUN EVENING...AND SLOWLY SPREAD
N/NE OVERNIGHT INTO MON. THIS WILL SUPPORT LIKELY POPS ONCE AGAIN
ACRS MOST OF THE CWA (WILL KEEP POPS A LITTLE LOWER ALONG THE
COAST). MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB CLDS- MOSTLY
CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS TRANSITIONING A BIT TO THE N/W AS UPPER
LOW APPROACHES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HI TEMPS IN THE L 80S NW
TO THE UPPER 80S SE. FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER BY TUE...WITH JUST
20-3% POPS MAINLY IN THE AFTN/EVENING WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
80S/AROUND 90 F.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH TUE (MOST OF IT OCCURRING TONIGHT INTO
MON) WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE
NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF ABT 1/2 INCH OVR THE LWR MD ERN SHORE.
HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS
(1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT
PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE COMING WEEK AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE SERN
U.S. AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT FRI/SAT.
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN EAST WEST ORIENTED FRONT WAS SITUATED NEAR THE MD/VA BORDER AT
23Z. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH TOWARD THE VA/NC BORDER
OVERNIGHT.

A BAND OF SHOWERS AND DISSIPATING THUNDERSTORMS WAS PASSING THROUGH
EASTERN VIRGINIA AND THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND AT THE 00Z
TAF ISSUANCE. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS WAS EXPECTING TO IMPACT PHF AND ORF NEAR THE BEGINNING OF THE
TAF PERIOD. ONCE THIS PCPN MOVES OFF THE COAST...EXPECT A PERIOD OF
MOSTLY VFR BEFORE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SETS IN. MOST OF THIS SHOULD BE
IN THE MVFR CATEGORY BUT SBY AND RIC MAY SEE IFR CONDITIONS TOWARD
MORNING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE MID TO LATE MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR MORE CONVECTION LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY.

TSTM CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED INTO MONDAY AS THE STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WITH A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN DEVELOPING THEREAFTER. LATE DAY AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WIDELY SCATTERED THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MD WATERS THIS AFTN
WILL DROP SOUTH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE
VA/NC BORDER ON SUNDAY. MAINLY W-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL VEER AROUND TO THE N-NE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...EXCEPT
NEAR/SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER WHERE THEY`LL REMAIN W-SW AOB 15 KT.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING E-SE AOB 15 KT ALL WATERS. LIGHT E-SE WINDS CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING S-SW AOB 15 KT TUE/WED. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN 2-3 FT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT ON THE
CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...JDM



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 050210
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1010 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO
THE LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW PRESSURE SE OF CAPE
COD...WITH A TRAILING BOUNDARY EXTENDING SW BACK INTO ERN/SRN VA.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
ALOFT...SOMEWHAT OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN EXISTS...WITH ONE UPPER
TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA...AND ANOTHER LAGGING WELL OFF TO OUR SW
ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH/GULF COAST STATES. THE CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVING OFF THE VA ERN SHORE...WITH
ISO-SCT ACTIVITY BACK ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VA. THIS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...AND UPPER LEVEL RRQ FORCING FROM
250-300 MB UPPER LEVEL JET.

OVERALL...RADAR DATA SUGGESTS A DIMINISHING TREND...AND RAP/HRRR
SUPPORT THIS AS WELL. GIVEN THIS...POPS HAVE BEEN TRENDED DOWN
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...VARIABLY CLOUDY NW TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SE. LOWS
IN THE MID-UPPER 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE VA/NC
BORDER EARLY SUN...THEN WILL MOVE BACK N ONCE AGN LATER SUN INTO
MON AS LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE FM THE GULF STATES TO THE CNTRL
MTNS. THERE RMN SOME MDL INCONSISTENCIES IN THIS SCENARIO...LARGELY
RELATING TO TIMING AND WHERE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF TAKES PLACE.

THE FAVORED AREA OF ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS ON SUN LIKELY TO BE FM
SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE NC INVOF STALLED FNTL BNDRY. MOSTLY
CLOUDY S...PARTLY CLOUDY NE SUN. HI TEMPS SUN MNLY IN THE L/M80S.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF INTO GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL
PUSH INTO SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUN EVENING...AND SLOWLY SPREAD
N/NE OVERNIGHT INTO MON. THIS WILL SUPPORT LIKELY POPS ONCE AGAIN
ACRS MOST OF THE CWA (WILL KEEP POPS A LITTLE LOWER ALONG THE
COAST). MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB CLDS- MOSTLY
CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS TRANSITIONING A BIT TO THE N/W AS UPPER
LOW APPROACHES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HI TEMPS IN THE L 80S NW
TO THE UPPER 80S SE. FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER BY TUE...WITH JUST
20-3% POPS MAINLY IN THE AFTN/EVENING WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
80S/AROUND 90 F.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH TUE (MOST OF IT OCCURRING TONIGHT INTO
MON) WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE
NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF ABT 1/2 INCH OVR THE LWR MD ERN SHORE.
HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS
(1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT
PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE COMING WEEK AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE SERN
U.S. AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT FRI/SAT.
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN EAST WEST ORIENTED FRONT WAS SITUATED NEAR THE MD/VA BORDER AT
23Z. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH TOWARD THE VA/NC BORDER
OVERNIGHT.

A BAND OF SHOWERS AND DISSIPATING THUNDERSTORMS WAS PASSING THROUGH
EASTERN VIRGINIA AND THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND AT THE 00Z
TAF ISSUANCE. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS WAS EXPECTING TO IMPACT PHF AND ORF NEAR THE BEGINNING OF THE
TAF PERIOD. ONCE THIS PCPN MOVES OFF THE COAST...EXPECT A PERIOD OF
MOSTLY VFR BEFORE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SETS IN. MOST OF THIS SHOULD BE
IN THE MVFR CATEGORY BUT SBY AND RIC MAY SEE IFR CONDITIONS TOWARD
MORNING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE MID TO LATE MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR MORE CONVECTION LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY.

TSTM CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED INTO MONDAY AS THE STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WITH A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN DEVELOPING THEREAFTER. LATE DAY AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WIDELY SCATTERED THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MD WATERS THIS AFTN
WILL DROP SOUTH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE
VA/NC BORDER ON SUNDAY. MAINLY W-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL VEER AROUND TO THE N-NE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...EXCEPT
NEAR/SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER WHERE THEY`LL REMAIN W-SW AOB 15 KT.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING E-SE AOB 15 KT ALL WATERS. LIGHT E-SE WINDS CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING S-SW AOB 15 KT TUE/WED. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN 2-3 FT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT ON THE
CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...JDM




000
FXUS61 KLWX 050155 AAB
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
955 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF
THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IMPACTS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING
UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
...UPDATE TO INCLUDE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

A WEAK BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY INTO THE
VIRGINIA PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS
MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST DURING THIS TIME...AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
THAT WAS ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS ALSO MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER TODAY HAVE MOVED
OUT OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND AND UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP MOST AREAS DRY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...AN
ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT WITH THE BOUNDARY
NEARBY. FOR ANY AREAS THAT DO GET A SHOWER IT SHOULD ONLY LAST
ABOUT TEN TO FIFTEEN MINUTES BEFORE MOVING AWAY...AND AGAIN MOST
AREAS WILL NOT SEE ANY PRECIPITATION.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE REGION. THE BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE AND SHIFT
SOUTH DURING THIS TIME. THERE IS LITTLE DEWPOINT OR TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY...SO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
HANG AROUND. THE COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...LIGHT WINDS
AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG. SOME FOG MAY
BE DENSE OVERNIGHT AND THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL AND ALSO
SHELTERED VALLEYS/RURAL AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SUNDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE METRO.
HOWEVER...FURTHER SOUTHWEST...A NEW CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP ALOFT
TONIGHT OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD OUR
REGION. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING AGAIN...AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD
STARTING IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE
WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE CWA BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. AFTER HIGHS
IN THE 80S SUNDAY...LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 60S ON SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT IS CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN BELT OF
WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA IN EARNEST
DURING THE DAY MON. COMBINATION OF SFC WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH
OVER AREA...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...AND VERY MOIST DEEP LAYER
WITH PWATS PROGGED TO BE NEAR 2 INCHES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
SHEAR REMAINS WEAK (0-6 KM EBS AOB 20 KTS) AND INSTABILITY COULD
BE LIMITED DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...WHICH WOULD LIMIT
OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY. TEMPS MIGHT NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED A LITTLE FURTHER DOWNWARD IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS...AS
AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT INSOLATION.

BULK OF ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE IS ENGULFED INTO THE NORTHERN
STREAM. LIKELY A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DISTURBANCE PROVIDING
SOME CLEARING DURING THE EARLY PART OF TUE. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
FORCING MECHANISM TUE...THOUGH COULD GET SOME ACTIVITY MOVING EAST
OFF HIGHER TERRAIN OR ALONG LEE TROUGH. STARTS GETTING A LITTLE
WARMER TUE...WITH TEMPS GETTING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL (U80S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DISTURBANCE LINGERS IN THE AREA TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES LATE ON WED. COLD FRONT SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTH OVER
THE CWA AND LINGERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...DRIER CONDITIONS
ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY ON LOCATION OF THE FRONT MAY
AFFECT POPS...BUT DIURNAL EFFECTS ALLOWS FOR THE RISK OF
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 80S...LOW TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE CWA...AND IN
THE MID TO UPR 60S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STORMS HAVE MOVED AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. A
STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL BE DRY. AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE WITH IFR/SUBIFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. SUNDAY AFTER ANY FOG BREAKS SHOULD BE MOSTLY
VFR...THOUGH LATE IN THE DAY ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS LOOKS TO MOVE
INTO CHO AND THEN NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REST OF THE TERMINALS
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE CONCERNS ABOUT GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCED
VIS. OUTSIDE OF STORMS...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

IFR CIGS APPEAR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY MON IN MODERATE/HEAVY
RAIN SHWRS AND STORMS. IMPROVING TO MVFR LATE MON AND VFR BY
TUESDAY MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PULLS AWAY FROM THE
AREA.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUES NIGHT AND WED. SUB-VFR DUE TO
PSBL SHOWERS AND TSTMS WED AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER AND
MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT EARLY THIS EVENING.
ELSEWHERE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME BUT A
STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
OVERNIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
DEVELOP. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA...BUT SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE MON....BUT COULD
STRENGTHEN SOME ON TUE DUE TO CHANNELING SRLY FLOW. COULD BE SOME
ISOLATED TSTMS MON AND AGAIN TUE AFTERNOON.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUES NIGHT AND WED. PSBL SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ACROSS THE WATERS ON WED AFTN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. NO TIDAL FLOODING IS
EXPECTED...DESPITE ANOMALIES BEING A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ039-050>052-
     055>057-502.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...BJL/RCM
SHORT TERM...MSE/RCM
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...BJL/IMR/MSE/RCM
MARINE...BJL/IMR/MSE/RCM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KLWX 050155 AAB
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
955 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF
THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IMPACTS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING
UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
...UPDATE TO INCLUDE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

A WEAK BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY INTO THE
VIRGINIA PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS
MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST DURING THIS TIME...AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
THAT WAS ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS ALSO MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER TODAY HAVE MOVED
OUT OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND AND UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP MOST AREAS DRY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...AN
ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT WITH THE BOUNDARY
NEARBY. FOR ANY AREAS THAT DO GET A SHOWER IT SHOULD ONLY LAST
ABOUT TEN TO FIFTEEN MINUTES BEFORE MOVING AWAY...AND AGAIN MOST
AREAS WILL NOT SEE ANY PRECIPITATION.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE REGION. THE BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE AND SHIFT
SOUTH DURING THIS TIME. THERE IS LITTLE DEWPOINT OR TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY...SO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
HANG AROUND. THE COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...LIGHT WINDS
AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG. SOME FOG MAY
BE DENSE OVERNIGHT AND THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL AND ALSO
SHELTERED VALLEYS/RURAL AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SUNDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE METRO.
HOWEVER...FURTHER SOUTHWEST...A NEW CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP ALOFT
TONIGHT OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD OUR
REGION. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING AGAIN...AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD
STARTING IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE
WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE CWA BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. AFTER HIGHS
IN THE 80S SUNDAY...LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 60S ON SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT IS CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN BELT OF
WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA IN EARNEST
DURING THE DAY MON. COMBINATION OF SFC WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH
OVER AREA...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...AND VERY MOIST DEEP LAYER
WITH PWATS PROGGED TO BE NEAR 2 INCHES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
SHEAR REMAINS WEAK (0-6 KM EBS AOB 20 KTS) AND INSTABILITY COULD
BE LIMITED DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...WHICH WOULD LIMIT
OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY. TEMPS MIGHT NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED A LITTLE FURTHER DOWNWARD IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS...AS
AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT INSOLATION.

BULK OF ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE IS ENGULFED INTO THE NORTHERN
STREAM. LIKELY A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DISTURBANCE PROVIDING
SOME CLEARING DURING THE EARLY PART OF TUE. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
FORCING MECHANISM TUE...THOUGH COULD GET SOME ACTIVITY MOVING EAST
OFF HIGHER TERRAIN OR ALONG LEE TROUGH. STARTS GETTING A LITTLE
WARMER TUE...WITH TEMPS GETTING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL (U80S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DISTURBANCE LINGERS IN THE AREA TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES LATE ON WED. COLD FRONT SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTH OVER
THE CWA AND LINGERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...DRIER CONDITIONS
ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY ON LOCATION OF THE FRONT MAY
AFFECT POPS...BUT DIURNAL EFFECTS ALLOWS FOR THE RISK OF
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 80S...LOW TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE CWA...AND IN
THE MID TO UPR 60S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STORMS HAVE MOVED AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. A
STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL BE DRY. AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE WITH IFR/SUBIFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. SUNDAY AFTER ANY FOG BREAKS SHOULD BE MOSTLY
VFR...THOUGH LATE IN THE DAY ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS LOOKS TO MOVE
INTO CHO AND THEN NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REST OF THE TERMINALS
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE CONCERNS ABOUT GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCED
VIS. OUTSIDE OF STORMS...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

IFR CIGS APPEAR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY MON IN MODERATE/HEAVY
RAIN SHWRS AND STORMS. IMPROVING TO MVFR LATE MON AND VFR BY
TUESDAY MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PULLS AWAY FROM THE
AREA.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUES NIGHT AND WED. SUB-VFR DUE TO
PSBL SHOWERS AND TSTMS WED AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER AND
MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT EARLY THIS EVENING.
ELSEWHERE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME BUT A
STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
OVERNIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
DEVELOP. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA...BUT SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE MON....BUT COULD
STRENGTHEN SOME ON TUE DUE TO CHANNELING SRLY FLOW. COULD BE SOME
ISOLATED TSTMS MON AND AGAIN TUE AFTERNOON.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUES NIGHT AND WED. PSBL SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ACROSS THE WATERS ON WED AFTN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. NO TIDAL FLOODING IS
EXPECTED...DESPITE ANOMALIES BEING A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ039-050>052-
     055>057-502.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...BJL/RCM
SHORT TERM...MSE/RCM
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...BJL/IMR/MSE/RCM
MARINE...BJL/IMR/MSE/RCM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KLWX 050155 AAB
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
955 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF
THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IMPACTS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING
UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
...UPDATE TO INCLUDE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

A WEAK BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY INTO THE
VIRGINIA PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS
MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST DURING THIS TIME...AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
THAT WAS ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS ALSO MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER TODAY HAVE MOVED
OUT OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND AND UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP MOST AREAS DRY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...AN
ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT WITH THE BOUNDARY
NEARBY. FOR ANY AREAS THAT DO GET A SHOWER IT SHOULD ONLY LAST
ABOUT TEN TO FIFTEEN MINUTES BEFORE MOVING AWAY...AND AGAIN MOST
AREAS WILL NOT SEE ANY PRECIPITATION.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE REGION. THE BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE AND SHIFT
SOUTH DURING THIS TIME. THERE IS LITTLE DEWPOINT OR TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY...SO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
HANG AROUND. THE COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...LIGHT WINDS
AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG. SOME FOG MAY
BE DENSE OVERNIGHT AND THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL AND ALSO
SHELTERED VALLEYS/RURAL AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SUNDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE METRO.
HOWEVER...FURTHER SOUTHWEST...A NEW CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP ALOFT
TONIGHT OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD OUR
REGION. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING AGAIN...AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD
STARTING IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE
WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE CWA BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. AFTER HIGHS
IN THE 80S SUNDAY...LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 60S ON SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT IS CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN BELT OF
WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA IN EARNEST
DURING THE DAY MON. COMBINATION OF SFC WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH
OVER AREA...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...AND VERY MOIST DEEP LAYER
WITH PWATS PROGGED TO BE NEAR 2 INCHES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
SHEAR REMAINS WEAK (0-6 KM EBS AOB 20 KTS) AND INSTABILITY COULD
BE LIMITED DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...WHICH WOULD LIMIT
OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY. TEMPS MIGHT NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED A LITTLE FURTHER DOWNWARD IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS...AS
AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT INSOLATION.

BULK OF ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE IS ENGULFED INTO THE NORTHERN
STREAM. LIKELY A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DISTURBANCE PROVIDING
SOME CLEARING DURING THE EARLY PART OF TUE. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
FORCING MECHANISM TUE...THOUGH COULD GET SOME ACTIVITY MOVING EAST
OFF HIGHER TERRAIN OR ALONG LEE TROUGH. STARTS GETTING A LITTLE
WARMER TUE...WITH TEMPS GETTING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL (U80S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DISTURBANCE LINGERS IN THE AREA TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES LATE ON WED. COLD FRONT SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTH OVER
THE CWA AND LINGERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...DRIER CONDITIONS
ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY ON LOCATION OF THE FRONT MAY
AFFECT POPS...BUT DIURNAL EFFECTS ALLOWS FOR THE RISK OF
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 80S...LOW TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE CWA...AND IN
THE MID TO UPR 60S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STORMS HAVE MOVED AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. A
STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL BE DRY. AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE WITH IFR/SUBIFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. SUNDAY AFTER ANY FOG BREAKS SHOULD BE MOSTLY
VFR...THOUGH LATE IN THE DAY ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS LOOKS TO MOVE
INTO CHO AND THEN NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REST OF THE TERMINALS
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE CONCERNS ABOUT GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCED
VIS. OUTSIDE OF STORMS...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

IFR CIGS APPEAR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY MON IN MODERATE/HEAVY
RAIN SHWRS AND STORMS. IMPROVING TO MVFR LATE MON AND VFR BY
TUESDAY MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PULLS AWAY FROM THE
AREA.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUES NIGHT AND WED. SUB-VFR DUE TO
PSBL SHOWERS AND TSTMS WED AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER AND
MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT EARLY THIS EVENING.
ELSEWHERE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME BUT A
STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
OVERNIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
DEVELOP. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA...BUT SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE MON....BUT COULD
STRENGTHEN SOME ON TUE DUE TO CHANNELING SRLY FLOW. COULD BE SOME
ISOLATED TSTMS MON AND AGAIN TUE AFTERNOON.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUES NIGHT AND WED. PSBL SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ACROSS THE WATERS ON WED AFTN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. NO TIDAL FLOODING IS
EXPECTED...DESPITE ANOMALIES BEING A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ039-050>052-
     055>057-502.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...BJL/RCM
SHORT TERM...MSE/RCM
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...BJL/IMR/MSE/RCM
MARINE...BJL/IMR/MSE/RCM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KLWX 050155 AAB
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
955 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF
THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IMPACTS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING
UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
...UPDATE TO INCLUDE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

A WEAK BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY INTO THE
VIRGINIA PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS
MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST DURING THIS TIME...AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
THAT WAS ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS ALSO MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER TODAY HAVE MOVED
OUT OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND AND UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP MOST AREAS DRY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...AN
ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT WITH THE BOUNDARY
NEARBY. FOR ANY AREAS THAT DO GET A SHOWER IT SHOULD ONLY LAST
ABOUT TEN TO FIFTEEN MINUTES BEFORE MOVING AWAY...AND AGAIN MOST
AREAS WILL NOT SEE ANY PRECIPITATION.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE REGION. THE BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE AND SHIFT
SOUTH DURING THIS TIME. THERE IS LITTLE DEWPOINT OR TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY...SO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
HANG AROUND. THE COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...LIGHT WINDS
AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG. SOME FOG MAY
BE DENSE OVERNIGHT AND THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL AND ALSO
SHELTERED VALLEYS/RURAL AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SUNDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE METRO.
HOWEVER...FURTHER SOUTHWEST...A NEW CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP ALOFT
TONIGHT OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD OUR
REGION. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING AGAIN...AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD
STARTING IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE
WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE CWA BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. AFTER HIGHS
IN THE 80S SUNDAY...LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 60S ON SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT IS CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN BELT OF
WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA IN EARNEST
DURING THE DAY MON. COMBINATION OF SFC WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH
OVER AREA...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...AND VERY MOIST DEEP LAYER
WITH PWATS PROGGED TO BE NEAR 2 INCHES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
SHEAR REMAINS WEAK (0-6 KM EBS AOB 20 KTS) AND INSTABILITY COULD
BE LIMITED DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...WHICH WOULD LIMIT
OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY. TEMPS MIGHT NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED A LITTLE FURTHER DOWNWARD IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS...AS
AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT INSOLATION.

BULK OF ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE IS ENGULFED INTO THE NORTHERN
STREAM. LIKELY A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DISTURBANCE PROVIDING
SOME CLEARING DURING THE EARLY PART OF TUE. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
FORCING MECHANISM TUE...THOUGH COULD GET SOME ACTIVITY MOVING EAST
OFF HIGHER TERRAIN OR ALONG LEE TROUGH. STARTS GETTING A LITTLE
WARMER TUE...WITH TEMPS GETTING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL (U80S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DISTURBANCE LINGERS IN THE AREA TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES LATE ON WED. COLD FRONT SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTH OVER
THE CWA AND LINGERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...DRIER CONDITIONS
ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY ON LOCATION OF THE FRONT MAY
AFFECT POPS...BUT DIURNAL EFFECTS ALLOWS FOR THE RISK OF
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 80S...LOW TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE CWA...AND IN
THE MID TO UPR 60S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STORMS HAVE MOVED AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. A
STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL BE DRY. AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE WITH IFR/SUBIFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. SUNDAY AFTER ANY FOG BREAKS SHOULD BE MOSTLY
VFR...THOUGH LATE IN THE DAY ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS LOOKS TO MOVE
INTO CHO AND THEN NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REST OF THE TERMINALS
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE CONCERNS ABOUT GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCED
VIS. OUTSIDE OF STORMS...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

IFR CIGS APPEAR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY MON IN MODERATE/HEAVY
RAIN SHWRS AND STORMS. IMPROVING TO MVFR LATE MON AND VFR BY
TUESDAY MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PULLS AWAY FROM THE
AREA.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUES NIGHT AND WED. SUB-VFR DUE TO
PSBL SHOWERS AND TSTMS WED AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER AND
MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT EARLY THIS EVENING.
ELSEWHERE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME BUT A
STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
OVERNIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
DEVELOP. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA...BUT SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE MON....BUT COULD
STRENGTHEN SOME ON TUE DUE TO CHANNELING SRLY FLOW. COULD BE SOME
ISOLATED TSTMS MON AND AGAIN TUE AFTERNOON.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUES NIGHT AND WED. PSBL SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ACROSS THE WATERS ON WED AFTN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. NO TIDAL FLOODING IS
EXPECTED...DESPITE ANOMALIES BEING A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ039-050>052-
     055>057-502.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...BJL/RCM
SHORT TERM...MSE/RCM
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...BJL/IMR/MSE/RCM
MARINE...BJL/IMR/MSE/RCM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KLWX 050155 AAB
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
955 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF
THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IMPACTS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING
UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
...UPDATE TO INCLUDE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

A WEAK BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY INTO THE
VIRGINIA PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS
MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST DURING THIS TIME...AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
THAT WAS ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS ALSO MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER TODAY HAVE MOVED
OUT OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND AND UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP MOST AREAS DRY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...AN
ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT WITH THE BOUNDARY
NEARBY. FOR ANY AREAS THAT DO GET A SHOWER IT SHOULD ONLY LAST
ABOUT TEN TO FIFTEEN MINUTES BEFORE MOVING AWAY...AND AGAIN MOST
AREAS WILL NOT SEE ANY PRECIPITATION.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE REGION. THE BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE AND SHIFT
SOUTH DURING THIS TIME. THERE IS LITTLE DEWPOINT OR TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY...SO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
HANG AROUND. THE COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...LIGHT WINDS
AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG. SOME FOG MAY
BE DENSE OVERNIGHT AND THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL AND ALSO
SHELTERED VALLEYS/RURAL AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SUNDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE METRO.
HOWEVER...FURTHER SOUTHWEST...A NEW CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP ALOFT
TONIGHT OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD OUR
REGION. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING AGAIN...AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD
STARTING IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE
WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE CWA BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. AFTER HIGHS
IN THE 80S SUNDAY...LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 60S ON SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT IS CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN BELT OF
WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA IN EARNEST
DURING THE DAY MON. COMBINATION OF SFC WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH
OVER AREA...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...AND VERY MOIST DEEP LAYER
WITH PWATS PROGGED TO BE NEAR 2 INCHES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
SHEAR REMAINS WEAK (0-6 KM EBS AOB 20 KTS) AND INSTABILITY COULD
BE LIMITED DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...WHICH WOULD LIMIT
OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY. TEMPS MIGHT NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED A LITTLE FURTHER DOWNWARD IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS...AS
AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT INSOLATION.

BULK OF ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE IS ENGULFED INTO THE NORTHERN
STREAM. LIKELY A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DISTURBANCE PROVIDING
SOME CLEARING DURING THE EARLY PART OF TUE. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
FORCING MECHANISM TUE...THOUGH COULD GET SOME ACTIVITY MOVING EAST
OFF HIGHER TERRAIN OR ALONG LEE TROUGH. STARTS GETTING A LITTLE
WARMER TUE...WITH TEMPS GETTING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL (U80S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DISTURBANCE LINGERS IN THE AREA TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES LATE ON WED. COLD FRONT SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTH OVER
THE CWA AND LINGERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...DRIER CONDITIONS
ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY ON LOCATION OF THE FRONT MAY
AFFECT POPS...BUT DIURNAL EFFECTS ALLOWS FOR THE RISK OF
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 80S...LOW TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE CWA...AND IN
THE MID TO UPR 60S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STORMS HAVE MOVED AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. A
STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL BE DRY. AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE WITH IFR/SUBIFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. SUNDAY AFTER ANY FOG BREAKS SHOULD BE MOSTLY
VFR...THOUGH LATE IN THE DAY ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS LOOKS TO MOVE
INTO CHO AND THEN NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REST OF THE TERMINALS
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE CONCERNS ABOUT GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCED
VIS. OUTSIDE OF STORMS...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

IFR CIGS APPEAR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY MON IN MODERATE/HEAVY
RAIN SHWRS AND STORMS. IMPROVING TO MVFR LATE MON AND VFR BY
TUESDAY MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PULLS AWAY FROM THE
AREA.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUES NIGHT AND WED. SUB-VFR DUE TO
PSBL SHOWERS AND TSTMS WED AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER AND
MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT EARLY THIS EVENING.
ELSEWHERE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME BUT A
STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
OVERNIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
DEVELOP. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA...BUT SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE MON....BUT COULD
STRENGTHEN SOME ON TUE DUE TO CHANNELING SRLY FLOW. COULD BE SOME
ISOLATED TSTMS MON AND AGAIN TUE AFTERNOON.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUES NIGHT AND WED. PSBL SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ACROSS THE WATERS ON WED AFTN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. NO TIDAL FLOODING IS
EXPECTED...DESPITE ANOMALIES BEING A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ039-050>052-
     055>057-502.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...BJL/RCM
SHORT TERM...MSE/RCM
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...BJL/IMR/MSE/RCM
MARINE...BJL/IMR/MSE/RCM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KLWX 050155 AAB
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
955 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF
THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IMPACTS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING
UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
...UPDATE TO INCLUDE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

A WEAK BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY INTO THE
VIRGINIA PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS
MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST DURING THIS TIME...AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
THAT WAS ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS ALSO MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER TODAY HAVE MOVED
OUT OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND AND UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP MOST AREAS DRY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...AN
ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT WITH THE BOUNDARY
NEARBY. FOR ANY AREAS THAT DO GET A SHOWER IT SHOULD ONLY LAST
ABOUT TEN TO FIFTEEN MINUTES BEFORE MOVING AWAY...AND AGAIN MOST
AREAS WILL NOT SEE ANY PRECIPITATION.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE REGION. THE BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE AND SHIFT
SOUTH DURING THIS TIME. THERE IS LITTLE DEWPOINT OR TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY...SO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
HANG AROUND. THE COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...LIGHT WINDS
AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG. SOME FOG MAY
BE DENSE OVERNIGHT AND THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL AND ALSO
SHELTERED VALLEYS/RURAL AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SUNDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE METRO.
HOWEVER...FURTHER SOUTHWEST...A NEW CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP ALOFT
TONIGHT OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD OUR
REGION. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING AGAIN...AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD
STARTING IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE
WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE CWA BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. AFTER HIGHS
IN THE 80S SUNDAY...LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 60S ON SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT IS CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN BELT OF
WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA IN EARNEST
DURING THE DAY MON. COMBINATION OF SFC WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH
OVER AREA...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...AND VERY MOIST DEEP LAYER
WITH PWATS PROGGED TO BE NEAR 2 INCHES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
SHEAR REMAINS WEAK (0-6 KM EBS AOB 20 KTS) AND INSTABILITY COULD
BE LIMITED DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...WHICH WOULD LIMIT
OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY. TEMPS MIGHT NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED A LITTLE FURTHER DOWNWARD IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS...AS
AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT INSOLATION.

BULK OF ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE IS ENGULFED INTO THE NORTHERN
STREAM. LIKELY A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DISTURBANCE PROVIDING
SOME CLEARING DURING THE EARLY PART OF TUE. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
FORCING MECHANISM TUE...THOUGH COULD GET SOME ACTIVITY MOVING EAST
OFF HIGHER TERRAIN OR ALONG LEE TROUGH. STARTS GETTING A LITTLE
WARMER TUE...WITH TEMPS GETTING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL (U80S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DISTURBANCE LINGERS IN THE AREA TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES LATE ON WED. COLD FRONT SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTH OVER
THE CWA AND LINGERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...DRIER CONDITIONS
ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY ON LOCATION OF THE FRONT MAY
AFFECT POPS...BUT DIURNAL EFFECTS ALLOWS FOR THE RISK OF
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 80S...LOW TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE CWA...AND IN
THE MID TO UPR 60S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STORMS HAVE MOVED AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. A
STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL BE DRY. AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE WITH IFR/SUBIFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. SUNDAY AFTER ANY FOG BREAKS SHOULD BE MOSTLY
VFR...THOUGH LATE IN THE DAY ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS LOOKS TO MOVE
INTO CHO AND THEN NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REST OF THE TERMINALS
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE CONCERNS ABOUT GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCED
VIS. OUTSIDE OF STORMS...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

IFR CIGS APPEAR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY MON IN MODERATE/HEAVY
RAIN SHWRS AND STORMS. IMPROVING TO MVFR LATE MON AND VFR BY
TUESDAY MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PULLS AWAY FROM THE
AREA.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUES NIGHT AND WED. SUB-VFR DUE TO
PSBL SHOWERS AND TSTMS WED AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER AND
MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT EARLY THIS EVENING.
ELSEWHERE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME BUT A
STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
OVERNIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
DEVELOP. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA...BUT SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE MON....BUT COULD
STRENGTHEN SOME ON TUE DUE TO CHANNELING SRLY FLOW. COULD BE SOME
ISOLATED TSTMS MON AND AGAIN TUE AFTERNOON.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUES NIGHT AND WED. PSBL SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ACROSS THE WATERS ON WED AFTN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. NO TIDAL FLOODING IS
EXPECTED...DESPITE ANOMALIES BEING A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ039-050>052-
     055>057-502.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...BJL/RCM
SHORT TERM...MSE/RCM
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...BJL/IMR/MSE/RCM
MARINE...BJL/IMR/MSE/RCM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KLWX 050103 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
903 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF
THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IMPACTS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING
UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY INTO THE
VIRGINIA PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS
MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST DURING THIS TIME...AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
THAT WAS ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS ALSO MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER TODAY HAVE MOVED
OUT OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND AND UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP MOST AREAS DRY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...AN
ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT WITH THE BOUNDARY
NEARBY. FOR ANY AREAS THAT DO GET A SHOWER IT SHOULD ONLY LAST
ABOUT TEN TO FIFTEEN MINUTES BEFORE MOVING AWAY...AND AGAIN MOST
AREAS WILL NOT SEE ANY PRECIPITATION.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE REGION. THE BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE AND SHIFT
SOUTH DURING THIS TIME. THERE IS LITTLE DEWPOINT OR TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY...SO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
HANG AROUND. THE COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...LIGHT WINDS
AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG. SOME FOG MAY
BE DENSE OVERNIGHT AND THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL AND ALSO
SHELTERED VALLEYS/RURAL AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SUNDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE METRO.
HOWEVER...FURTHER SOUTHWEST...A NEW CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP ALOFT
TONIGHT OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD OUR
REGION. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING AGAIN...AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD
STARTING IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE
WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE CWA BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. AFTER HIGHS
IN THE 80S SUNDAY...LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 60S ON SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT IS CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN BELT OF
WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA IN EARNEST
DURING THE DAY MON. COMBINATION OF SFC WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH
OVER AREA...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...AND VERY MOIST DEEP LAYER
WITH PWATS PROGGED TO BE NEAR 2 INCHES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
SHEAR REMAINS WEAK (0-6 KM EBS AOB 20 KTS) AND INSTABILITY COULD
BE LIMITED DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...WHICH WOULD LIMIT
OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY. TEMPS MIGHT NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED A LITTLE FURTHER DOWNWARD IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS...AS
AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT INSOLATION.

BULK OF ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE IS ENGULFED INTO THE NORTHERN
STREAM. LIKELY A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DISTURBANCE PROVIDING
SOME CLEARING DURING THE EARLY PART OF TUE. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
FORCING MECHANISM TUE...THOUGH COULD GET SOME ACTIVITY MOVING EAST
OFF HIGHER TERRAIN OR ALONG LEE TROUGH. STARTS GETTING A LITTLE
WARMER TUE...WITH TEMPS GETTING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL (U80S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DISTURBANCE LINGERS IN THE AREA TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES LATE ON WED. COLD FRONT SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTH OVER
THE CWA AND LINGERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...DRIER CONDITIONS
ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY ON LOCATION OF THE FRONT MAY
AFFECT POPS...BUT DIURNAL EFFECTS ALLOWS FOR THE RISK OF
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 80S...LOW TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE CWA...AND IN
THE MID TO UPR 60S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STORMS HAVE MOVED AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. A
STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL BE DRY. AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE WITH IFR/SUBIFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. SUNDAY AFTER ANY FOG BREAKS SHOULD BE MOSTLY
VFR...THOUGH LATE IN THE DAY ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS LOOKS TO MOVE
INTO CHO AND THEN NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REST OF THE TERMINALS
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE CONCERNS ABOUT GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCED
VIS. OUTSIDE OF STORMS...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

IFR CIGS APPEAR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY MON IN MODERATE/HEAVY
RAIN SHWRS AND STORMS. IMPROVING TO MVFR LATE MON AND VFR BY
TUESDAY MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PULLS AWAY FROM THE
AREA.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUES NIGHT AND WED. SUB-VFR DUE TO
PSBL SHOWERS AND TSTMS WED AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER AND
MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT EARLY THIS EVENING.
ELSEWHERE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME BUT A
STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
OVERNIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
DEVELOP. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA...BUT SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE MON....BUT COULD
STRENGTHEN SOME ON TUE DUE TO CHANNELING SRLY FLOW. COULD BE SOME
ISOLATED TSTMS MON AND AGAIN TUE AFTERNOON.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUES NIGHT AND WED. PSBL SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ACROSS THE WATERS ON WED AFTN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. NO TIDAL FLOODING IS
EXPECTED...DESPITE ANOMALIES BEING A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...BJL/RCM
SHORT TERM...MSE/RCM
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...BJL/IMR/MSE/RCM
MARINE...BJL/IMR/MSE/RCM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL




000
FXUS61 KLWX 050103 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
903 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF
THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IMPACTS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING
UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY INTO THE
VIRGINIA PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS
MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST DURING THIS TIME...AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
THAT WAS ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS ALSO MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER TODAY HAVE MOVED
OUT OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND AND UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP MOST AREAS DRY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...AN
ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT WITH THE BOUNDARY
NEARBY. FOR ANY AREAS THAT DO GET A SHOWER IT SHOULD ONLY LAST
ABOUT TEN TO FIFTEEN MINUTES BEFORE MOVING AWAY...AND AGAIN MOST
AREAS WILL NOT SEE ANY PRECIPITATION.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE REGION. THE BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE AND SHIFT
SOUTH DURING THIS TIME. THERE IS LITTLE DEWPOINT OR TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY...SO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
HANG AROUND. THE COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...LIGHT WINDS
AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG. SOME FOG MAY
BE DENSE OVERNIGHT AND THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL AND ALSO
SHELTERED VALLEYS/RURAL AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SUNDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE METRO.
HOWEVER...FURTHER SOUTHWEST...A NEW CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP ALOFT
TONIGHT OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD OUR
REGION. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING AGAIN...AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD
STARTING IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE
WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE CWA BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. AFTER HIGHS
IN THE 80S SUNDAY...LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 60S ON SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT IS CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN BELT OF
WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA IN EARNEST
DURING THE DAY MON. COMBINATION OF SFC WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH
OVER AREA...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...AND VERY MOIST DEEP LAYER
WITH PWATS PROGGED TO BE NEAR 2 INCHES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
SHEAR REMAINS WEAK (0-6 KM EBS AOB 20 KTS) AND INSTABILITY COULD
BE LIMITED DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...WHICH WOULD LIMIT
OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY. TEMPS MIGHT NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED A LITTLE FURTHER DOWNWARD IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS...AS
AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT INSOLATION.

BULK OF ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE IS ENGULFED INTO THE NORTHERN
STREAM. LIKELY A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DISTURBANCE PROVIDING
SOME CLEARING DURING THE EARLY PART OF TUE. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
FORCING MECHANISM TUE...THOUGH COULD GET SOME ACTIVITY MOVING EAST
OFF HIGHER TERRAIN OR ALONG LEE TROUGH. STARTS GETTING A LITTLE
WARMER TUE...WITH TEMPS GETTING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL (U80S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DISTURBANCE LINGERS IN THE AREA TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES LATE ON WED. COLD FRONT SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTH OVER
THE CWA AND LINGERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...DRIER CONDITIONS
ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY ON LOCATION OF THE FRONT MAY
AFFECT POPS...BUT DIURNAL EFFECTS ALLOWS FOR THE RISK OF
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 80S...LOW TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE CWA...AND IN
THE MID TO UPR 60S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STORMS HAVE MOVED AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. A
STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL BE DRY. AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE WITH IFR/SUBIFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. SUNDAY AFTER ANY FOG BREAKS SHOULD BE MOSTLY
VFR...THOUGH LATE IN THE DAY ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS LOOKS TO MOVE
INTO CHO AND THEN NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REST OF THE TERMINALS
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE CONCERNS ABOUT GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCED
VIS. OUTSIDE OF STORMS...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

IFR CIGS APPEAR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY MON IN MODERATE/HEAVY
RAIN SHWRS AND STORMS. IMPROVING TO MVFR LATE MON AND VFR BY
TUESDAY MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PULLS AWAY FROM THE
AREA.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUES NIGHT AND WED. SUB-VFR DUE TO
PSBL SHOWERS AND TSTMS WED AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER AND
MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT EARLY THIS EVENING.
ELSEWHERE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME BUT A
STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
OVERNIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
DEVELOP. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA...BUT SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE MON....BUT COULD
STRENGTHEN SOME ON TUE DUE TO CHANNELING SRLY FLOW. COULD BE SOME
ISOLATED TSTMS MON AND AGAIN TUE AFTERNOON.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUES NIGHT AND WED. PSBL SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ACROSS THE WATERS ON WED AFTN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. NO TIDAL FLOODING IS
EXPECTED...DESPITE ANOMALIES BEING A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...BJL/RCM
SHORT TERM...MSE/RCM
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...BJL/IMR/MSE/RCM
MARINE...BJL/IMR/MSE/RCM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 050038
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
838 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO
THE LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATES SFC LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW INTO NORTHERN VA.
SOMEWHAT OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT...WITH ONE UPPER TROUGH
OVER ERN CANADA...AND ANOTHER LAGGING WELL OFF TO OUR SW ACRS THE
DEEP SOUTH/GULF COAST STATES. CURRENT RADAR SHOWING INCREASING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER NW SECTIONS OF THE CWA...THIS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AS WELL AS
UPPER LEVEL RRQ FORCING FROM 250-300 MB UPPER LEVEL JET. ANOTHER
AREA OF MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS ONGOING IN NE NC ALONG THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND...THIS ASSOCIATED MORE W/ HIGHER LEVELS ON
INSTABILITY/LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.

MAIN CONCERN THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM
POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL AREAS OF OF MDT/HVY RAIN (ESPECIALLY OVER
SRN VA/NE NC WHERE SOME OF THESE AREAS RECEIVED 1-3 INCHES/LOCALLY
HIGHER AMTS FRI EVENING. THIS DUE TO PWATS 1.75 TO 2.00" AND SOME
POTENTIAL TRAINING OF STORMS. CURRENTLY THOUGH...MUCH OF THIS
AREA NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF STORM COVERAGE...SO HAVE
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD WATCHES. ALSO...SPC/RAP
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS ~30KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR INTO SRN /SE VA BY
INTO EARLY EVENING...SO SOME GUSTY WINDS TO ~45 MPH POSSIBLE WITH
STORMS OVER THE FAR SOUTH. WILL HAVE HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS ALL
ZONES THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY SHIFTING S/E OVERNIGHT. LOOKS LIKE
ENOUGH CONTINUED FORCING TO MAINTAIN CHC POPS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACRS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH. LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S NW TO THE
LWR 70S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE VA/NC
BORDER EARLY SUN...THEN WILL MOVE BACK N ONCE AGN LATER SUN INTO
MON AS LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE FM THE GULF STATES TO THE CNTRL
MTNS. THERE RMN SOME MDL INCONSISTENCIES IN THIS SCENARIO...LARGELY
RELATING TO TIMING AND WHERE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF TAKES PLACE.

THE FAVORED AREA OF ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS ON SUN LIKELY TO BE FM
SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE NC INVOF STALLED FNTL BNDRY. MOSTLY
CLOUDY S...PARTLY CLOUDY NE SUN. HI TEMPS SUN MNLY IN THE L/M80S.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF INTO GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL
PUSH INTO SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUN EVENING...AND SLOWLY SPREAD
N/NE OVERNIGHT INTO MON. THIS WILL SUPPORT LIKELY POPS ONCE AGAIN
ACRS MOST OF THE CWA (WILL KEEP POPS A LITTLE LOWER ALONG THE
COAST). MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB CLDS- MOSTLY
CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS TRANSITIONING A BIT TO THE N/W AS UPPER
LOW APPROACHES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HI TEMPS IN THE L 80S NW
TO THE UPPER 80S SE. FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER BY TUE...WITH JUST
20-3% POPS MAINLY IN THE AFTN/EVENING WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
80S/AROUND 90 F.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH TUE (MOST OF IT OCCURRING TONIGHT INTO
MON) WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE
NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF ABT 1/2 INCH OVR THE LWR MD ERN SHORE.
HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS
(1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT
PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE COMING WEEK AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE SERN
U.S. AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT FRI/SAT.
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN EAST WEST ORIENTED FRONT WAS SITUATED NEAR THE MD/VA BORDER AT
23Z. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH TOWARD THE VA/NC BORDER
OVERNIGHT.

A BAND OF SHOWERS AND DISSIPATING THUNDERSTORMS WAS PASSING THROUGH
EASTERN VIRGINIA AND THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND AT THE 00Z
TAF ISSUANCE. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS WAS EXPECTING TO IMPACT PHF AND ORF NEAR THE BEGINNING OF THE
TAF PERIOD. ONCE THIS PCPN MOVES OFF THE COAST...EXPECT A PERIOD OF
MOSTLY VFR BEFORE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SETS IN. MOST OF THIS SHOULD BE
IN THE MVFR CATEGORY BUT SBY AND RIC MAY SEE IFR CONDITIONS TOWARD
MORNING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE MID TO LATE MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR MORE CONVECTION LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY.

TSTM CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED INTO MONDAY AS THE STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WITH A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN DEVELOPING THEREAFTER. LATE DAY AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WIDELY SCATTERED THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MD WATERS THIS AFTN
WILL DROP SOUTH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE
VA/NC BORDER ON SUNDAY. MAINLY W-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL VEER AROUND TO THE N-NE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...EXCEPT
NEAR/SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER WHERE THEY`LL REMAIN W-SW AOB 15 KT.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING E-SE AOB 15 KT ALL WATERS. LIGHT E-SE WINDS CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING S-SW AOB 15 KT TUE/WED. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN 2-3 FT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT ON THE
CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...JDM



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 050038
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
838 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO
THE LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATES SFC LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW INTO NORTHERN VA.
SOMEWHAT OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT...WITH ONE UPPER TROUGH
OVER ERN CANADA...AND ANOTHER LAGGING WELL OFF TO OUR SW ACRS THE
DEEP SOUTH/GULF COAST STATES. CURRENT RADAR SHOWING INCREASING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER NW SECTIONS OF THE CWA...THIS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AS WELL AS
UPPER LEVEL RRQ FORCING FROM 250-300 MB UPPER LEVEL JET. ANOTHER
AREA OF MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS ONGOING IN NE NC ALONG THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND...THIS ASSOCIATED MORE W/ HIGHER LEVELS ON
INSTABILITY/LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.

MAIN CONCERN THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM
POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL AREAS OF OF MDT/HVY RAIN (ESPECIALLY OVER
SRN VA/NE NC WHERE SOME OF THESE AREAS RECEIVED 1-3 INCHES/LOCALLY
HIGHER AMTS FRI EVENING. THIS DUE TO PWATS 1.75 TO 2.00" AND SOME
POTENTIAL TRAINING OF STORMS. CURRENTLY THOUGH...MUCH OF THIS
AREA NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF STORM COVERAGE...SO HAVE
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD WATCHES. ALSO...SPC/RAP
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS ~30KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR INTO SRN /SE VA BY
INTO EARLY EVENING...SO SOME GUSTY WINDS TO ~45 MPH POSSIBLE WITH
STORMS OVER THE FAR SOUTH. WILL HAVE HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS ALL
ZONES THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY SHIFTING S/E OVERNIGHT. LOOKS LIKE
ENOUGH CONTINUED FORCING TO MAINTAIN CHC POPS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACRS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH. LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S NW TO THE
LWR 70S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE VA/NC
BORDER EARLY SUN...THEN WILL MOVE BACK N ONCE AGN LATER SUN INTO
MON AS LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE FM THE GULF STATES TO THE CNTRL
MTNS. THERE RMN SOME MDL INCONSISTENCIES IN THIS SCENARIO...LARGELY
RELATING TO TIMING AND WHERE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF TAKES PLACE.

THE FAVORED AREA OF ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS ON SUN LIKELY TO BE FM
SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE NC INVOF STALLED FNTL BNDRY. MOSTLY
CLOUDY S...PARTLY CLOUDY NE SUN. HI TEMPS SUN MNLY IN THE L/M80S.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF INTO GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL
PUSH INTO SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUN EVENING...AND SLOWLY SPREAD
N/NE OVERNIGHT INTO MON. THIS WILL SUPPORT LIKELY POPS ONCE AGAIN
ACRS MOST OF THE CWA (WILL KEEP POPS A LITTLE LOWER ALONG THE
COAST). MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB CLDS- MOSTLY
CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS TRANSITIONING A BIT TO THE N/W AS UPPER
LOW APPROACHES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HI TEMPS IN THE L 80S NW
TO THE UPPER 80S SE. FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER BY TUE...WITH JUST
20-3% POPS MAINLY IN THE AFTN/EVENING WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
80S/AROUND 90 F.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH TUE (MOST OF IT OCCURRING TONIGHT INTO
MON) WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE
NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF ABT 1/2 INCH OVR THE LWR MD ERN SHORE.
HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS
(1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT
PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE COMING WEEK AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE SERN
U.S. AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT FRI/SAT.
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN EAST WEST ORIENTED FRONT WAS SITUATED NEAR THE MD/VA BORDER AT
23Z. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH TOWARD THE VA/NC BORDER
OVERNIGHT.

A BAND OF SHOWERS AND DISSIPATING THUNDERSTORMS WAS PASSING THROUGH
EASTERN VIRGINIA AND THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND AT THE 00Z
TAF ISSUANCE. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS WAS EXPECTING TO IMPACT PHF AND ORF NEAR THE BEGINNING OF THE
TAF PERIOD. ONCE THIS PCPN MOVES OFF THE COAST...EXPECT A PERIOD OF
MOSTLY VFR BEFORE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SETS IN. MOST OF THIS SHOULD BE
IN THE MVFR CATEGORY BUT SBY AND RIC MAY SEE IFR CONDITIONS TOWARD
MORNING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE MID TO LATE MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR MORE CONVECTION LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY.

TSTM CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED INTO MONDAY AS THE STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WITH A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN DEVELOPING THEREAFTER. LATE DAY AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WIDELY SCATTERED THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MD WATERS THIS AFTN
WILL DROP SOUTH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE
VA/NC BORDER ON SUNDAY. MAINLY W-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL VEER AROUND TO THE N-NE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...EXCEPT
NEAR/SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER WHERE THEY`LL REMAIN W-SW AOB 15 KT.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING E-SE AOB 15 KT ALL WATERS. LIGHT E-SE WINDS CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING S-SW AOB 15 KT TUE/WED. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN 2-3 FT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT ON THE
CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...JDM



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 050038
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
838 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO
THE LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATES SFC LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW INTO NORTHERN VA.
SOMEWHAT OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT...WITH ONE UPPER TROUGH
OVER ERN CANADA...AND ANOTHER LAGGING WELL OFF TO OUR SW ACRS THE
DEEP SOUTH/GULF COAST STATES. CURRENT RADAR SHOWING INCREASING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER NW SECTIONS OF THE CWA...THIS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AS WELL AS
UPPER LEVEL RRQ FORCING FROM 250-300 MB UPPER LEVEL JET. ANOTHER
AREA OF MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS ONGOING IN NE NC ALONG THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND...THIS ASSOCIATED MORE W/ HIGHER LEVELS ON
INSTABILITY/LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.

MAIN CONCERN THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM
POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL AREAS OF OF MDT/HVY RAIN (ESPECIALLY OVER
SRN VA/NE NC WHERE SOME OF THESE AREAS RECEIVED 1-3 INCHES/LOCALLY
HIGHER AMTS FRI EVENING. THIS DUE TO PWATS 1.75 TO 2.00" AND SOME
POTENTIAL TRAINING OF STORMS. CURRENTLY THOUGH...MUCH OF THIS
AREA NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF STORM COVERAGE...SO HAVE
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD WATCHES. ALSO...SPC/RAP
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS ~30KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR INTO SRN /SE VA BY
INTO EARLY EVENING...SO SOME GUSTY WINDS TO ~45 MPH POSSIBLE WITH
STORMS OVER THE FAR SOUTH. WILL HAVE HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS ALL
ZONES THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY SHIFTING S/E OVERNIGHT. LOOKS LIKE
ENOUGH CONTINUED FORCING TO MAINTAIN CHC POPS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACRS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH. LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S NW TO THE
LWR 70S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE VA/NC
BORDER EARLY SUN...THEN WILL MOVE BACK N ONCE AGN LATER SUN INTO
MON AS LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE FM THE GULF STATES TO THE CNTRL
MTNS. THERE RMN SOME MDL INCONSISTENCIES IN THIS SCENARIO...LARGELY
RELATING TO TIMING AND WHERE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF TAKES PLACE.

THE FAVORED AREA OF ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS ON SUN LIKELY TO BE FM
SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE NC INVOF STALLED FNTL BNDRY. MOSTLY
CLOUDY S...PARTLY CLOUDY NE SUN. HI TEMPS SUN MNLY IN THE L/M80S.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF INTO GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL
PUSH INTO SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUN EVENING...AND SLOWLY SPREAD
N/NE OVERNIGHT INTO MON. THIS WILL SUPPORT LIKELY POPS ONCE AGAIN
ACRS MOST OF THE CWA (WILL KEEP POPS A LITTLE LOWER ALONG THE
COAST). MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB CLDS- MOSTLY
CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS TRANSITIONING A BIT TO THE N/W AS UPPER
LOW APPROACHES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HI TEMPS IN THE L 80S NW
TO THE UPPER 80S SE. FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER BY TUE...WITH JUST
20-3% POPS MAINLY IN THE AFTN/EVENING WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
80S/AROUND 90 F.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH TUE (MOST OF IT OCCURRING TONIGHT INTO
MON) WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE
NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF ABT 1/2 INCH OVR THE LWR MD ERN SHORE.
HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS
(1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT
PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE COMING WEEK AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE SERN
U.S. AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT FRI/SAT.
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN EAST WEST ORIENTED FRONT WAS SITUATED NEAR THE MD/VA BORDER AT
23Z. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH TOWARD THE VA/NC BORDER
OVERNIGHT.

A BAND OF SHOWERS AND DISSIPATING THUNDERSTORMS WAS PASSING THROUGH
EASTERN VIRGINIA AND THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND AT THE 00Z
TAF ISSUANCE. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS WAS EXPECTING TO IMPACT PHF AND ORF NEAR THE BEGINNING OF THE
TAF PERIOD. ONCE THIS PCPN MOVES OFF THE COAST...EXPECT A PERIOD OF
MOSTLY VFR BEFORE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SETS IN. MOST OF THIS SHOULD BE
IN THE MVFR CATEGORY BUT SBY AND RIC MAY SEE IFR CONDITIONS TOWARD
MORNING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE MID TO LATE MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR MORE CONVECTION LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY.

TSTM CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED INTO MONDAY AS THE STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WITH A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN DEVELOPING THEREAFTER. LATE DAY AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WIDELY SCATTERED THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MD WATERS THIS AFTN
WILL DROP SOUTH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE
VA/NC BORDER ON SUNDAY. MAINLY W-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL VEER AROUND TO THE N-NE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...EXCEPT
NEAR/SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER WHERE THEY`LL REMAIN W-SW AOB 15 KT.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING E-SE AOB 15 KT ALL WATERS. LIGHT E-SE WINDS CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING S-SW AOB 15 KT TUE/WED. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN 2-3 FT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT ON THE
CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...JDM



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 050038
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
838 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO
THE LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATES SFC LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW INTO NORTHERN VA.
SOMEWHAT OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT...WITH ONE UPPER TROUGH
OVER ERN CANADA...AND ANOTHER LAGGING WELL OFF TO OUR SW ACRS THE
DEEP SOUTH/GULF COAST STATES. CURRENT RADAR SHOWING INCREASING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER NW SECTIONS OF THE CWA...THIS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AS WELL AS
UPPER LEVEL RRQ FORCING FROM 250-300 MB UPPER LEVEL JET. ANOTHER
AREA OF MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS ONGOING IN NE NC ALONG THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND...THIS ASSOCIATED MORE W/ HIGHER LEVELS ON
INSTABILITY/LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.

MAIN CONCERN THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM
POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL AREAS OF OF MDT/HVY RAIN (ESPECIALLY OVER
SRN VA/NE NC WHERE SOME OF THESE AREAS RECEIVED 1-3 INCHES/LOCALLY
HIGHER AMTS FRI EVENING. THIS DUE TO PWATS 1.75 TO 2.00" AND SOME
POTENTIAL TRAINING OF STORMS. CURRENTLY THOUGH...MUCH OF THIS
AREA NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF STORM COVERAGE...SO HAVE
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD WATCHES. ALSO...SPC/RAP
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS ~30KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR INTO SRN /SE VA BY
INTO EARLY EVENING...SO SOME GUSTY WINDS TO ~45 MPH POSSIBLE WITH
STORMS OVER THE FAR SOUTH. WILL HAVE HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS ALL
ZONES THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY SHIFTING S/E OVERNIGHT. LOOKS LIKE
ENOUGH CONTINUED FORCING TO MAINTAIN CHC POPS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACRS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH. LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S NW TO THE
LWR 70S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE VA/NC
BORDER EARLY SUN...THEN WILL MOVE BACK N ONCE AGN LATER SUN INTO
MON AS LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE FM THE GULF STATES TO THE CNTRL
MTNS. THERE RMN SOME MDL INCONSISTENCIES IN THIS SCENARIO...LARGELY
RELATING TO TIMING AND WHERE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF TAKES PLACE.

THE FAVORED AREA OF ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS ON SUN LIKELY TO BE FM
SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE NC INVOF STALLED FNTL BNDRY. MOSTLY
CLOUDY S...PARTLY CLOUDY NE SUN. HI TEMPS SUN MNLY IN THE L/M80S.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF INTO GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL
PUSH INTO SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUN EVENING...AND SLOWLY SPREAD
N/NE OVERNIGHT INTO MON. THIS WILL SUPPORT LIKELY POPS ONCE AGAIN
ACRS MOST OF THE CWA (WILL KEEP POPS A LITTLE LOWER ALONG THE
COAST). MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB CLDS- MOSTLY
CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS TRANSITIONING A BIT TO THE N/W AS UPPER
LOW APPROACHES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HI TEMPS IN THE L 80S NW
TO THE UPPER 80S SE. FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER BY TUE...WITH JUST
20-3% POPS MAINLY IN THE AFTN/EVENING WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
80S/AROUND 90 F.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH TUE (MOST OF IT OCCURRING TONIGHT INTO
MON) WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE
NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF ABT 1/2 INCH OVR THE LWR MD ERN SHORE.
HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS
(1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT
PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE COMING WEEK AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE SERN
U.S. AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT FRI/SAT.
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN EAST WEST ORIENTED FRONT WAS SITUATED NEAR THE MD/VA BORDER AT
23Z. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH TOWARD THE VA/NC BORDER
OVERNIGHT.

A BAND OF SHOWERS AND DISSIPATING THUNDERSTORMS WAS PASSING THROUGH
EASTERN VIRGINIA AND THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND AT THE 00Z
TAF ISSUANCE. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS WAS EXPECTING TO IMPACT PHF AND ORF NEAR THE BEGINNING OF THE
TAF PERIOD. ONCE THIS PCPN MOVES OFF THE COAST...EXPECT A PERIOD OF
MOSTLY VFR BEFORE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SETS IN. MOST OF THIS SHOULD BE
IN THE MVFR CATEGORY BUT SBY AND RIC MAY SEE IFR CONDITIONS TOWARD
MORNING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE MID TO LATE MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR MORE CONVECTION LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY.

TSTM CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED INTO MONDAY AS THE STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WITH A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN DEVELOPING THEREAFTER. LATE DAY AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WIDELY SCATTERED THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MD WATERS THIS AFTN
WILL DROP SOUTH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE
VA/NC BORDER ON SUNDAY. MAINLY W-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL VEER AROUND TO THE N-NE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...EXCEPT
NEAR/SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER WHERE THEY`LL REMAIN W-SW AOB 15 KT.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING E-SE AOB 15 KT ALL WATERS. LIGHT E-SE WINDS CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING S-SW AOB 15 KT TUE/WED. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN 2-3 FT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT ON THE
CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...JDM



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 050038
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
838 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO
THE LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATES SFC LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW INTO NORTHERN VA.
SOMEWHAT OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT...WITH ONE UPPER TROUGH
OVER ERN CANADA...AND ANOTHER LAGGING WELL OFF TO OUR SW ACRS THE
DEEP SOUTH/GULF COAST STATES. CURRENT RADAR SHOWING INCREASING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER NW SECTIONS OF THE CWA...THIS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AS WELL AS
UPPER LEVEL RRQ FORCING FROM 250-300 MB UPPER LEVEL JET. ANOTHER
AREA OF MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS ONGOING IN NE NC ALONG THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND...THIS ASSOCIATED MORE W/ HIGHER LEVELS ON
INSTABILITY/LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.

MAIN CONCERN THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM
POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL AREAS OF OF MDT/HVY RAIN (ESPECIALLY OVER
SRN VA/NE NC WHERE SOME OF THESE AREAS RECEIVED 1-3 INCHES/LOCALLY
HIGHER AMTS FRI EVENING. THIS DUE TO PWATS 1.75 TO 2.00" AND SOME
POTENTIAL TRAINING OF STORMS. CURRENTLY THOUGH...MUCH OF THIS
AREA NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF STORM COVERAGE...SO HAVE
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD WATCHES. ALSO...SPC/RAP
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS ~30KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR INTO SRN /SE VA BY
INTO EARLY EVENING...SO SOME GUSTY WINDS TO ~45 MPH POSSIBLE WITH
STORMS OVER THE FAR SOUTH. WILL HAVE HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS ALL
ZONES THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY SHIFTING S/E OVERNIGHT. LOOKS LIKE
ENOUGH CONTINUED FORCING TO MAINTAIN CHC POPS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACRS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH. LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S NW TO THE
LWR 70S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE VA/NC
BORDER EARLY SUN...THEN WILL MOVE BACK N ONCE AGN LATER SUN INTO
MON AS LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE FM THE GULF STATES TO THE CNTRL
MTNS. THERE RMN SOME MDL INCONSISTENCIES IN THIS SCENARIO...LARGELY
RELATING TO TIMING AND WHERE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF TAKES PLACE.

THE FAVORED AREA OF ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS ON SUN LIKELY TO BE FM
SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE NC INVOF STALLED FNTL BNDRY. MOSTLY
CLOUDY S...PARTLY CLOUDY NE SUN. HI TEMPS SUN MNLY IN THE L/M80S.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF INTO GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL
PUSH INTO SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUN EVENING...AND SLOWLY SPREAD
N/NE OVERNIGHT INTO MON. THIS WILL SUPPORT LIKELY POPS ONCE AGAIN
ACRS MOST OF THE CWA (WILL KEEP POPS A LITTLE LOWER ALONG THE
COAST). MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB CLDS- MOSTLY
CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS TRANSITIONING A BIT TO THE N/W AS UPPER
LOW APPROACHES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HI TEMPS IN THE L 80S NW
TO THE UPPER 80S SE. FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER BY TUE...WITH JUST
20-3% POPS MAINLY IN THE AFTN/EVENING WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
80S/AROUND 90 F.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH TUE (MOST OF IT OCCURRING TONIGHT INTO
MON) WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE
NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF ABT 1/2 INCH OVR THE LWR MD ERN SHORE.
HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS
(1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT
PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE COMING WEEK AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE SERN
U.S. AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT FRI/SAT.
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN EAST WEST ORIENTED FRONT WAS SITUATED NEAR THE MD/VA BORDER AT
23Z. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH TOWARD THE VA/NC BORDER
OVERNIGHT.

A BAND OF SHOWERS AND DISSIPATING THUNDERSTORMS WAS PASSING THROUGH
EASTERN VIRGINIA AND THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND AT THE 00Z
TAF ISSUANCE. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS WAS EXPECTING TO IMPACT PHF AND ORF NEAR THE BEGINNING OF THE
TAF PERIOD. ONCE THIS PCPN MOVES OFF THE COAST...EXPECT A PERIOD OF
MOSTLY VFR BEFORE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SETS IN. MOST OF THIS SHOULD BE
IN THE MVFR CATEGORY BUT SBY AND RIC MAY SEE IFR CONDITIONS TOWARD
MORNING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE MID TO LATE MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR MORE CONVECTION LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY.

TSTM CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED INTO MONDAY AS THE STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WITH A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN DEVELOPING THEREAFTER. LATE DAY AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WIDELY SCATTERED THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MD WATERS THIS AFTN
WILL DROP SOUTH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE
VA/NC BORDER ON SUNDAY. MAINLY W-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL VEER AROUND TO THE N-NE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...EXCEPT
NEAR/SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER WHERE THEY`LL REMAIN W-SW AOB 15 KT.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING E-SE AOB 15 KT ALL WATERS. LIGHT E-SE WINDS CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING S-SW AOB 15 KT TUE/WED. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN 2-3 FT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT ON THE
CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...JDM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 050038
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
838 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO
THE LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATES SFC LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW INTO NORTHERN VA.
SOMEWHAT OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT...WITH ONE UPPER TROUGH
OVER ERN CANADA...AND ANOTHER LAGGING WELL OFF TO OUR SW ACRS THE
DEEP SOUTH/GULF COAST STATES. CURRENT RADAR SHOWING INCREASING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER NW SECTIONS OF THE CWA...THIS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AS WELL AS
UPPER LEVEL RRQ FORCING FROM 250-300 MB UPPER LEVEL JET. ANOTHER
AREA OF MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS ONGOING IN NE NC ALONG THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND...THIS ASSOCIATED MORE W/ HIGHER LEVELS ON
INSTABILITY/LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.

MAIN CONCERN THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM
POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL AREAS OF OF MDT/HVY RAIN (ESPECIALLY OVER
SRN VA/NE NC WHERE SOME OF THESE AREAS RECEIVED 1-3 INCHES/LOCALLY
HIGHER AMTS FRI EVENING. THIS DUE TO PWATS 1.75 TO 2.00" AND SOME
POTENTIAL TRAINING OF STORMS. CURRENTLY THOUGH...MUCH OF THIS
AREA NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF STORM COVERAGE...SO HAVE
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD WATCHES. ALSO...SPC/RAP
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS ~30KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR INTO SRN /SE VA BY
INTO EARLY EVENING...SO SOME GUSTY WINDS TO ~45 MPH POSSIBLE WITH
STORMS OVER THE FAR SOUTH. WILL HAVE HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS ALL
ZONES THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY SHIFTING S/E OVERNIGHT. LOOKS LIKE
ENOUGH CONTINUED FORCING TO MAINTAIN CHC POPS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACRS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH. LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S NW TO THE
LWR 70S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE VA/NC
BORDER EARLY SUN...THEN WILL MOVE BACK N ONCE AGN LATER SUN INTO
MON AS LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE FM THE GULF STATES TO THE CNTRL
MTNS. THERE RMN SOME MDL INCONSISTENCIES IN THIS SCENARIO...LARGELY
RELATING TO TIMING AND WHERE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF TAKES PLACE.

THE FAVORED AREA OF ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS ON SUN LIKELY TO BE FM
SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE NC INVOF STALLED FNTL BNDRY. MOSTLY
CLOUDY S...PARTLY CLOUDY NE SUN. HI TEMPS SUN MNLY IN THE L/M80S.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF INTO GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL
PUSH INTO SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUN EVENING...AND SLOWLY SPREAD
N/NE OVERNIGHT INTO MON. THIS WILL SUPPORT LIKELY POPS ONCE AGAIN
ACRS MOST OF THE CWA (WILL KEEP POPS A LITTLE LOWER ALONG THE
COAST). MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB CLDS- MOSTLY
CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS TRANSITIONING A BIT TO THE N/W AS UPPER
LOW APPROACHES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HI TEMPS IN THE L 80S NW
TO THE UPPER 80S SE. FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER BY TUE...WITH JUST
20-3% POPS MAINLY IN THE AFTN/EVENING WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
80S/AROUND 90 F.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH TUE (MOST OF IT OCCURRING TONIGHT INTO
MON) WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE
NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF ABT 1/2 INCH OVR THE LWR MD ERN SHORE.
HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS
(1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT
PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE COMING WEEK AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE SERN
U.S. AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT FRI/SAT.
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN EAST WEST ORIENTED FRONT WAS SITUATED NEAR THE MD/VA BORDER AT
23Z. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH TOWARD THE VA/NC BORDER
OVERNIGHT.

A BAND OF SHOWERS AND DISSIPATING THUNDERSTORMS WAS PASSING THROUGH
EASTERN VIRGINIA AND THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND AT THE 00Z
TAF ISSUANCE. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS WAS EXPECTING TO IMPACT PHF AND ORF NEAR THE BEGINNING OF THE
TAF PERIOD. ONCE THIS PCPN MOVES OFF THE COAST...EXPECT A PERIOD OF
MOSTLY VFR BEFORE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SETS IN. MOST OF THIS SHOULD BE
IN THE MVFR CATEGORY BUT SBY AND RIC MAY SEE IFR CONDITIONS TOWARD
MORNING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE MID TO LATE MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR MORE CONVECTION LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY.

TSTM CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED INTO MONDAY AS THE STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WITH A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN DEVELOPING THEREAFTER. LATE DAY AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WIDELY SCATTERED THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MD WATERS THIS AFTN
WILL DROP SOUTH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE
VA/NC BORDER ON SUNDAY. MAINLY W-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL VEER AROUND TO THE N-NE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...EXCEPT
NEAR/SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER WHERE THEY`LL REMAIN W-SW AOB 15 KT.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING E-SE AOB 15 KT ALL WATERS. LIGHT E-SE WINDS CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING S-SW AOB 15 KT TUE/WED. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN 2-3 FT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT ON THE
CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...JDM



000
FXUS61 KRNK 042355
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
755 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...KEEPING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK...AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...

SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER TROF OVER EAST WITH
SURFACE FRONT WAVERING AROUND THROUGH THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE WILL
PUSH OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WHICH SWINGS COLD FRONT
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SOLAR HEATING HAS RESULTED IN
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE MOST UNSTABLE CAPES AND DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ON SPC HOURLY
MESO ANALYSIS POINTING TO EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE DAY ONE
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CLIPS THE SOUTHEAST OF CWA WITH A MARGINAL THREAT
WITH SLIGHT POTENTIAL ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THE WINDOW FOR
ANY STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON IS VERY SMALL. STORMS ARE MOVING
THUS NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FLOODING ISSUE.

THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD TAPER OFF THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT WITH JUST SOME LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
IT APPEARS THAT MANY LOCATIONS WILL BE ABLE TO GET OFF FIREWORKS
DISPLAYS. LOWS TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH READINGS
FROM AROUND 60 IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE
PIEDMONT.

THE WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO TRAVEL EAST ALONG THE UPPER TROUGH. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY SUNDAY LATE MORNING AND BECOME
NUMEROUS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER UPPER 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 80S IN THE
PIEDMONTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK
CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND ITS SUBSEQUENT
NORTHWARD DRIFT INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. TAIL END OF LONG
STANDING EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL BECOME CUTOFF ACROSS NORTHERN
GA/AL/EASTERN TN FROM THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH...WHICH WILL SHEAR
OUT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE DRIFTS INTO THE OH
VALLEY. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO
MON...FINALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY AS THE NEXT
UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH FROM GA IT TAKES ON A NEGATIVE
TILT...WHICH WILL FURTHER ENHANCE OVERALL WEAK DYNAMICS/LIFT AND
CERTAINLY PROLONG THE WET WEATHER PATTERN. ABUNDANT DEEP MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH PWATS IN THE 1.75 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. EXTENSIVE TO NEAR SOLID CLOUD COVER WILL
LIMIT HEATING...SO INSTABILITIES REMAIN MEAGER AND OVERALL
DYNAMICS ARE WEAK.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A LARGE SWATH OF DEEP
MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW AND OVERRUNNING EXISTING
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...TRACKING FROM GA/SC NORTHWARD INTO THE
RNK CWA BY SUN AFTERNOON...DRIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
CWA MON...THEN FINALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE CWA BY TUE. THIS
WILL SUPPORT HIGH PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH A LIMITED DIURNAL SWING
OF TEMPERATURE GIVEN THE UPPER LOW WILL ESSENTIALLY BE DRIFTING
RIGHT ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CWA.

THE PATH OF THE UPPER LOW SHOULD FOCUS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA...BLUE RIDGE AND WEST.
WITH 3HR FFG VALUES AVERAGING IN THE 1.5 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA AND THE RECENT PROLONGED WET SPELL...WE WILL NEED
TO MONITOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS CAREFULLY...HOWEVER...THE LACK OF ANY
ORGANIZED OR STRONG CONVECTION...GIVEN THE MEAGER LAPSE RATES AND
LACK OF INSTABILITY/DYNAMICS...SHOULD HOLD HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
IN CHECK. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THREAT OF POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
IN THE HWO...BUT POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE A CONCERN ATTM.

AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA TUE...WE SHOULD SEE
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TO FINALLY SQUELCH THE SHOWER THREAT
PROVIDING A BREAK BEFORE NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES TUESDAY
NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MON...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES TUESDAY WITH GREATER
INSOLATION. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGH PWATS/DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 445 PM EDT SATURDAY...

UNSETTLED WEATHER DESTINED TO CONTINUE. AFTER A VERY BRIEF
RESPITE FROM WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TUESDAY...A NEW FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL DRIFT INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY AND
THEN BECOME ELONGATED WEST-EAST ACROSS THE REGION AND STALL FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO OUR
SOUTH AND FASTER WESTERLIES TO OUR NORTH...THIS WILL FAVOR ACTIVE
BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH DAILY THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. PATTERN
SUPPORTS SOME ORGANIZATION OF STORM ACTIVITY AND POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS PER PRESENCE OF WITH ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE ENERGY THAT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE FASTER
WESTERLIES TO OUR NORTH.

THE UPPER FLOW ATTEMPTS TO TRANSITION BACK TO NORTHWEST FLOW
TOWARD THE WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WEST-
CENTRAL CONUS. THIS COULD REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED
CONVECTION/RAINFALL...BUT WILL NONETHELESS SUPPORT AN ACTIVE AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN.

WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE LEVELS CONTINUING...EXPECT
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES AND WELL ABOVE
NORMAL MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 740 PM EDT SATURDAY...

CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE KDAN
AIRPORT WILL BE MORE THAN 10 NM AWAY FROM THE AIRPORT BY THE 00Z
START TIME OF THE TAF. NO OTHER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CLOSE
TO...OR EXPECTED AT THE OTHER (KLWB/KBLF/KBCB/KROA/KLYH) FOR THE
REST OF THE EVENING.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER NORTHEAST VIRGINIA WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE LOW INTO NORTHERN TENNESSEE. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT. EXPECTING IFR STRATUS NORTH AND WEST OF
THE LOW OVERNIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF CEILINGS BELOW
500 FT AT KLWB AND KBLF. LOCATIONS THAT HAD RAIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL ALSO HAVE PATCHY FOG WITH OCCASIONAL
MVFR TO LIFR VISIBILITIES.

A CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY
AND SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
AFTER 12Z/8AM. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THE RAIN
AND WHEN THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL BE...BUT HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDOWS
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR VFR CONDITIONS INCREASE TUE. UPPER LOW/TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO OHIO BY MONDAY. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE OH VALLEY BY WED. THIS LEAVES A VERY
UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH
IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR-
VFR OUTSIDE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOONS. AT THIS
POINT...TUESDAY APPEARS TO OFFER THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM/RAB
AVIATION...AMS/KK




000
FXUS61 KRNK 042355
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
755 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...KEEPING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK...AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...

SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER TROF OVER EAST WITH
SURFACE FRONT WAVERING AROUND THROUGH THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE WILL
PUSH OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WHICH SWINGS COLD FRONT
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SOLAR HEATING HAS RESULTED IN
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE MOST UNSTABLE CAPES AND DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ON SPC HOURLY
MESO ANALYSIS POINTING TO EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE DAY ONE
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CLIPS THE SOUTHEAST OF CWA WITH A MARGINAL THREAT
WITH SLIGHT POTENTIAL ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THE WINDOW FOR
ANY STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON IS VERY SMALL. STORMS ARE MOVING
THUS NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FLOODING ISSUE.

THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD TAPER OFF THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT WITH JUST SOME LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
IT APPEARS THAT MANY LOCATIONS WILL BE ABLE TO GET OFF FIREWORKS
DISPLAYS. LOWS TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH READINGS
FROM AROUND 60 IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE
PIEDMONT.

THE WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO TRAVEL EAST ALONG THE UPPER TROUGH. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY SUNDAY LATE MORNING AND BECOME
NUMEROUS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER UPPER 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 80S IN THE
PIEDMONTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK
CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND ITS SUBSEQUENT
NORTHWARD DRIFT INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. TAIL END OF LONG
STANDING EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL BECOME CUTOFF ACROSS NORTHERN
GA/AL/EASTERN TN FROM THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH...WHICH WILL SHEAR
OUT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE DRIFTS INTO THE OH
VALLEY. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO
MON...FINALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY AS THE NEXT
UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH FROM GA IT TAKES ON A NEGATIVE
TILT...WHICH WILL FURTHER ENHANCE OVERALL WEAK DYNAMICS/LIFT AND
CERTAINLY PROLONG THE WET WEATHER PATTERN. ABUNDANT DEEP MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH PWATS IN THE 1.75 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. EXTENSIVE TO NEAR SOLID CLOUD COVER WILL
LIMIT HEATING...SO INSTABILITIES REMAIN MEAGER AND OVERALL
DYNAMICS ARE WEAK.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A LARGE SWATH OF DEEP
MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW AND OVERRUNNING EXISTING
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...TRACKING FROM GA/SC NORTHWARD INTO THE
RNK CWA BY SUN AFTERNOON...DRIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
CWA MON...THEN FINALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE CWA BY TUE. THIS
WILL SUPPORT HIGH PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH A LIMITED DIURNAL SWING
OF TEMPERATURE GIVEN THE UPPER LOW WILL ESSENTIALLY BE DRIFTING
RIGHT ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CWA.

THE PATH OF THE UPPER LOW SHOULD FOCUS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA...BLUE RIDGE AND WEST.
WITH 3HR FFG VALUES AVERAGING IN THE 1.5 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA AND THE RECENT PROLONGED WET SPELL...WE WILL NEED
TO MONITOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS CAREFULLY...HOWEVER...THE LACK OF ANY
ORGANIZED OR STRONG CONVECTION...GIVEN THE MEAGER LAPSE RATES AND
LACK OF INSTABILITY/DYNAMICS...SHOULD HOLD HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
IN CHECK. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THREAT OF POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
IN THE HWO...BUT POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE A CONCERN ATTM.

AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA TUE...WE SHOULD SEE
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TO FINALLY SQUELCH THE SHOWER THREAT
PROVIDING A BREAK BEFORE NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES TUESDAY
NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MON...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES TUESDAY WITH GREATER
INSOLATION. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGH PWATS/DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 445 PM EDT SATURDAY...

UNSETTLED WEATHER DESTINED TO CONTINUE. AFTER A VERY BRIEF
RESPITE FROM WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TUESDAY...A NEW FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL DRIFT INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY AND
THEN BECOME ELONGATED WEST-EAST ACROSS THE REGION AND STALL FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO OUR
SOUTH AND FASTER WESTERLIES TO OUR NORTH...THIS WILL FAVOR ACTIVE
BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH DAILY THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. PATTERN
SUPPORTS SOME ORGANIZATION OF STORM ACTIVITY AND POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS PER PRESENCE OF WITH ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE ENERGY THAT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE FASTER
WESTERLIES TO OUR NORTH.

THE UPPER FLOW ATTEMPTS TO TRANSITION BACK TO NORTHWEST FLOW
TOWARD THE WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WEST-
CENTRAL CONUS. THIS COULD REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED
CONVECTION/RAINFALL...BUT WILL NONETHELESS SUPPORT AN ACTIVE AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN.

WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE LEVELS CONTINUING...EXPECT
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES AND WELL ABOVE
NORMAL MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 740 PM EDT SATURDAY...

CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE KDAN
AIRPORT WILL BE MORE THAN 10 NM AWAY FROM THE AIRPORT BY THE 00Z
START TIME OF THE TAF. NO OTHER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CLOSE
TO...OR EXPECTED AT THE OTHER (KLWB/KBLF/KBCB/KROA/KLYH) FOR THE
REST OF THE EVENING.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER NORTHEAST VIRGINIA WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE LOW INTO NORTHERN TENNESSEE. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT. EXPECTING IFR STRATUS NORTH AND WEST OF
THE LOW OVERNIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF CEILINGS BELOW
500 FT AT KLWB AND KBLF. LOCATIONS THAT HAD RAIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL ALSO HAVE PATCHY FOG WITH OCCASIONAL
MVFR TO LIFR VISIBILITIES.

A CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY
AND SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
AFTER 12Z/8AM. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THE RAIN
AND WHEN THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL BE...BUT HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDOWS
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR VFR CONDITIONS INCREASE TUE. UPPER LOW/TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO OHIO BY MONDAY. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE OH VALLEY BY WED. THIS LEAVES A VERY
UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH
IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR-
VFR OUTSIDE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOONS. AT THIS
POINT...TUESDAY APPEARS TO OFFER THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM/RAB
AVIATION...AMS/KK



000
FXUS61 KLWX 042343
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
743 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF
THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IMPACTS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING
UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY INTO THE
VIRGINIA PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS
MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST DURING THIS TIME...AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
THAT WAS ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS ALSO MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT POPPED UP NEAR THE BOUNDARY ARE
MOVING SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM SOUTHERN MARYLAND THIS EVENING.
ELSEWHERE...THERE IS ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE FOR MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...AN
ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING WITH THE BOUNDARY
NEARBY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY SINCE THE BOUNDARY IS WEAK.
ALSO...FOR AREAS THAT DO GET A SHOWER IT SHOULD ONLY LAST ABOUT
TEN TO FIFTEEN MINUTES BEFORE MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE REGION. THE BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE AND SHIFT
SOUTH DURING THIS TIME. THERE IS LITTLE DEWPOINT OR TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY...SO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
HANG AROUND. THE COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...LIGHT WINDS
AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG. SOME FOG MAY
BE DENSE OVERNIGHT AND THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL AND ALSO
SHELTERED VALLEYS/RURAL AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SUNDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE METRO.
HOWEVER...FURTHER SOUTHWEST...A NEW CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP ALOFT
TONIGHT OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD OUR
REGION. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING AGAIN...AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD
STARTING IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE
WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE CWA BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. AFTER HIGHS
IN THE 80S SUNDAY...LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 60S ON SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT IS CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN BELT OF
WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA IN EARNEST
DURING THE DAY MON. COMBINATION OF SFC WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH
OVER AREA...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...AND VERY MOIST DEEP LAYER
WITH PWATS PROGGED TO BE NEAR 2 INCHES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
SHEAR REMAINS WEAK (0-6 KM EBS AOB 20 KTS) AND INSTABILITY COULD
BE LIMITED DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...WHICH WOULD LIMIT
OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY. TEMPS MIGHT NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED A LITTLE FURTHER DOWNWARD IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS...AS
AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT INSOLATION.

BULK OF ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE IS ENGULFED INTO THE NORTHERN
STREAM. LIKELY A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DISTURBANCE PROVIDING
SOME CLEARING DURING THE EARLY PART OF TUE. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
FORCING MECHANISM TUE...THOUGH COULD GET SOME ACTIVITY MOVING EAST
OFF HIGHER TERRAIN OR ALONG LEE TROUGH. STARTS GETTING A LITTLE
WARMER TUE...WITH TEMPS GETTING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL (U80S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DISTURBANCE LINGERS IN THE AREA TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES LATE ON WED. COLD FRONT SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTH OVER
THE CWA AND LINGERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...DRIER CONDITIONS
ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY ON LOCATION OF THE FRONT MAY
AFFECT POPS...BUT DIURNAL EFFECTS ALLOWS FOR THE RISK OF
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 80S...LOW TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE CWA...AND IN
THE MID TO UPR 60S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STORMS HAVE MOVED AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. A
STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL BE DRY. AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE WITH IFR/SUBIFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. SUNDAY AFTER ANY FOG BREAKS SHOULD BE MOSTLY
VFR...THOUGH LATE IN THE DAY ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS LOOKS TO MOVE
INTO CHO AND THEN NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REST OF THE TERMINALS
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE CONCERNS ABOUT GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCED
VIS. OUTSIDE OF STORMS...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

IFR CIGS APPEAR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY MON IN MODERATE/HEAVY
RAIN SHWRS AND STORMS. IMPROVING TO MVFR LATE MON AND VFR BY
TUESDAY MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PULLS AWAY FROM THE
AREA.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUES NIGHT AND WED. SUB-VFR DUE TO
PSBL SHOWERS AND TSTMS WED AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER AND
MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT EARLY THIS EVENING.
ELSEWHERE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME BUT A
STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
OVERNIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
DEVELOP. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA...BUT SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE MON....BUT COULD
STRENGTHEN SOME ON TUE DUE TO CHANNELING SRLY FLOW. COULD BE SOME
ISOLATED TSTMS MON AND AGAIN TUE AFTERNOON.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUES NIGHT AND WED. PSBL SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ACROSS THE WATERS ON WED AFTN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. NO TIDAL FLOODING IS
EXPECTED...DESPITE ANOMALIES BEING A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...BJL/RCM
SHORT TERM...MSE/RCM
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...BJL/IMR/MSE/RCM
MARINE...BJL/IMR/MSE/RCM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL




000
FXUS61 KLWX 042343
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
743 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF
THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IMPACTS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING
UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY INTO THE
VIRGINIA PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS
MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST DURING THIS TIME...AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
THAT WAS ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS ALSO MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT POPPED UP NEAR THE BOUNDARY ARE
MOVING SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM SOUTHERN MARYLAND THIS EVENING.
ELSEWHERE...THERE IS ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE FOR MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...AN
ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING WITH THE BOUNDARY
NEARBY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY SINCE THE BOUNDARY IS WEAK.
ALSO...FOR AREAS THAT DO GET A SHOWER IT SHOULD ONLY LAST ABOUT
TEN TO FIFTEEN MINUTES BEFORE MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE REGION. THE BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE AND SHIFT
SOUTH DURING THIS TIME. THERE IS LITTLE DEWPOINT OR TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY...SO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
HANG AROUND. THE COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...LIGHT WINDS
AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG. SOME FOG MAY
BE DENSE OVERNIGHT AND THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL AND ALSO
SHELTERED VALLEYS/RURAL AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SUNDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE METRO.
HOWEVER...FURTHER SOUTHWEST...A NEW CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP ALOFT
TONIGHT OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD OUR
REGION. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING AGAIN...AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD
STARTING IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE
WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE CWA BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. AFTER HIGHS
IN THE 80S SUNDAY...LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 60S ON SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT IS CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN BELT OF
WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA IN EARNEST
DURING THE DAY MON. COMBINATION OF SFC WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH
OVER AREA...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...AND VERY MOIST DEEP LAYER
WITH PWATS PROGGED TO BE NEAR 2 INCHES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
SHEAR REMAINS WEAK (0-6 KM EBS AOB 20 KTS) AND INSTABILITY COULD
BE LIMITED DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...WHICH WOULD LIMIT
OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY. TEMPS MIGHT NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED A LITTLE FURTHER DOWNWARD IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS...AS
AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT INSOLATION.

BULK OF ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE IS ENGULFED INTO THE NORTHERN
STREAM. LIKELY A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DISTURBANCE PROVIDING
SOME CLEARING DURING THE EARLY PART OF TUE. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
FORCING MECHANISM TUE...THOUGH COULD GET SOME ACTIVITY MOVING EAST
OFF HIGHER TERRAIN OR ALONG LEE TROUGH. STARTS GETTING A LITTLE
WARMER TUE...WITH TEMPS GETTING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL (U80S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DISTURBANCE LINGERS IN THE AREA TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES LATE ON WED. COLD FRONT SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTH OVER
THE CWA AND LINGERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...DRIER CONDITIONS
ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY ON LOCATION OF THE FRONT MAY
AFFECT POPS...BUT DIURNAL EFFECTS ALLOWS FOR THE RISK OF
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 80S...LOW TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE CWA...AND IN
THE MID TO UPR 60S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STORMS HAVE MOVED AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. A
STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL BE DRY. AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE WITH IFR/SUBIFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. SUNDAY AFTER ANY FOG BREAKS SHOULD BE MOSTLY
VFR...THOUGH LATE IN THE DAY ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS LOOKS TO MOVE
INTO CHO AND THEN NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REST OF THE TERMINALS
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE CONCERNS ABOUT GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCED
VIS. OUTSIDE OF STORMS...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

IFR CIGS APPEAR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY MON IN MODERATE/HEAVY
RAIN SHWRS AND STORMS. IMPROVING TO MVFR LATE MON AND VFR BY
TUESDAY MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PULLS AWAY FROM THE
AREA.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUES NIGHT AND WED. SUB-VFR DUE TO
PSBL SHOWERS AND TSTMS WED AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER AND
MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT EARLY THIS EVENING.
ELSEWHERE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME BUT A
STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
OVERNIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
DEVELOP. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA...BUT SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE MON....BUT COULD
STRENGTHEN SOME ON TUE DUE TO CHANNELING SRLY FLOW. COULD BE SOME
ISOLATED TSTMS MON AND AGAIN TUE AFTERNOON.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUES NIGHT AND WED. PSBL SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ACROSS THE WATERS ON WED AFTN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. NO TIDAL FLOODING IS
EXPECTED...DESPITE ANOMALIES BEING A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...BJL/RCM
SHORT TERM...MSE/RCM
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...BJL/IMR/MSE/RCM
MARINE...BJL/IMR/MSE/RCM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 042010
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
410 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO
THE LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATES SFC LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW INTO NORTHERN VA.
SOMEWHAT OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT...WITH ONE UPPER TROUGH
OVER ERN CANADA...AND ANOTHER LAGGING WELL OFF TO OUR SW ACRS THE
DEEP SOUTH/GULF COAST STATES. CURRENT RADAR SHOWING INCREASING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER NW SECTIONS OF THE CWA...THIS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AS WELL AS
UPPER LEVEL RRQ FORCING FROM 250-300 MB UPPER LEVEL JET. ANOTHER
AREA OF MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS ONGOING IN NE NC ALONG THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND...THIS ASSOCIATED MORE W/ HIGHER LEVELS ON
INSTABILITY/LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.

MAIN CONCERN THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM
POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL AREAS OF OF MDT/HVY RAIN (ESPECIALLY OVER
SRN VA/NE NC WHERE SOME OF THESE AREAS RECEIVED 1-3 INCHES/LOCALLY
HIGHER AMTS FRI EVENING. THIS DUE TO PWATS 1.75 TO 2.00" AND SOME
POTENTIAL TRAINING OF STORMS. CURRENTLY THOUGH...MUCH OF THIS
AREA NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF STORM COVERAGE...SO HAVE
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD WATCHES. ALSO...SPC/RAP
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS ~30KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR INTO SRN /SE VA BY
INTO EARLY EVENING...SO SOME GUSTY WINDS TO ~45 MPH POSSIBLE WITH
STORMS OVER THE FAR SOUTH. WILL HAVE HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS ALL
ZONES THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY SHIFTING S/E OVERNIGHT. LOOKS LIKE
ENOUGH CONTINUED FORCING TO MAINTAIN CHC POPS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACRS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH. LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S NW TO THE
LWR 70S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE VA/NC
BORDER EARLY SUN...THEN WILL MOVE BACK N ONCE AGN LATER SUN INTO
MON AS LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE FM THE GULF STATES TO THE CNTRL
MTNS. THERE RMN SOME MDL INCONSISTENCIES IN THIS SCENARIO...LARGELY
RELATING TO TIMING AND WHERE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF TAKES PLACE.

THE FAVORED AREA OF ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS ON SUN LIKELY TO BE FM
SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE NC INVOF STALLED FNTL BNDRY. MOSTLY
CLOUDY S...PARTLY CLOUDY NE SUN. HI TEMPS SUN MNLY IN THE L/M80S.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF INTO GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL
PUSH INTO SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUN EVENING...AND SLOWLY SPREAD
N/NE OVERNIGHT INTO MON. THIS WILL SUPPORT LIKELY POPS ONCE AGAIN
ACRS MOST OF THE CWA (WILL KEEP POPS A LITTLE LOWER ALONG THE
COAST). MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB CLDS- MOSTLY
CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS TRANSITIONING A BIT TO THE N/W AS UPPER
LOW APPROACHES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HI TEMPS IN THE L 80S NW
TO THE UPPER 80S SE. FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER BY TUE...WITH JUST
20-3% POPS MAINLY IN THE AFTN/EVENING WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
80S/AROUND 90 F.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH TUE (MOST OF IT OCCURRING TONIGHT INTO
MON) WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE
NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF ABT 1/2 INCH OVR THE LWR MD ERN SHORE.
HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS
(1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT
PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE COMING WEEK AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE SERN
U.S. AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT FRI/SAT.
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THIS AFTN AND INTO TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ALONG WITH SURFACE
BOUNDARY STRETCHING E TO W ACROSS CENTRAL VA WILL PHASE OVER THE
AREA SUPPORTING THE STORM DEVELOPMENT. HEAVY RAIN REDUCING VIS AND
GUSTY WINDS(UP TO 3OKT) WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE STORMS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY AS THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVES
SOUTH AND WAVES OF UPPER ENERGY MOVE OVER THE AREA. MVFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY FOR SITES THAT GET NORTH/WEST OF THE FRONT.

PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED INTO MONDAY AS WEATHER PATTERN
REMAINS UNCHANGED.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MD WATERS THIS AFTN
WILL DROP SOUTH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE
VA/NC BORDER ON SUNDAY. MAINLY W-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL VEER AROUND TO THE N-NE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...EXCEPT
NEAR/SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER WHERE THEY`LL REMAIN W-SW AOB 15 KT.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING E-SE AOB 15 KT ALL WATERS. LIGHT E-SE WINDS CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING S-SW AOB 15 KT TUE/WED. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN 2-3 FT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT ON THE
CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG/DAP
MARINE...JDM



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 042010
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
410 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO
THE LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATES SFC LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW INTO NORTHERN VA.
SOMEWHAT OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT...WITH ONE UPPER TROUGH
OVER ERN CANADA...AND ANOTHER LAGGING WELL OFF TO OUR SW ACRS THE
DEEP SOUTH/GULF COAST STATES. CURRENT RADAR SHOWING INCREASING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER NW SECTIONS OF THE CWA...THIS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AS WELL AS
UPPER LEVEL RRQ FORCING FROM 250-300 MB UPPER LEVEL JET. ANOTHER
AREA OF MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS ONGOING IN NE NC ALONG THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND...THIS ASSOCIATED MORE W/ HIGHER LEVELS ON
INSTABILITY/LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.

MAIN CONCERN THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM
POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL AREAS OF OF MDT/HVY RAIN (ESPECIALLY OVER
SRN VA/NE NC WHERE SOME OF THESE AREAS RECEIVED 1-3 INCHES/LOCALLY
HIGHER AMTS FRI EVENING. THIS DUE TO PWATS 1.75 TO 2.00" AND SOME
POTENTIAL TRAINING OF STORMS. CURRENTLY THOUGH...MUCH OF THIS
AREA NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF STORM COVERAGE...SO HAVE
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD WATCHES. ALSO...SPC/RAP
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS ~30KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR INTO SRN /SE VA BY
INTO EARLY EVENING...SO SOME GUSTY WINDS TO ~45 MPH POSSIBLE WITH
STORMS OVER THE FAR SOUTH. WILL HAVE HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS ALL
ZONES THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY SHIFTING S/E OVERNIGHT. LOOKS LIKE
ENOUGH CONTINUED FORCING TO MAINTAIN CHC POPS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACRS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH. LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S NW TO THE
LWR 70S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE VA/NC
BORDER EARLY SUN...THEN WILL MOVE BACK N ONCE AGN LATER SUN INTO
MON AS LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE FM THE GULF STATES TO THE CNTRL
MTNS. THERE RMN SOME MDL INCONSISTENCIES IN THIS SCENARIO...LARGELY
RELATING TO TIMING AND WHERE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF TAKES PLACE.

THE FAVORED AREA OF ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS ON SUN LIKELY TO BE FM
SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE NC INVOF STALLED FNTL BNDRY. MOSTLY
CLOUDY S...PARTLY CLOUDY NE SUN. HI TEMPS SUN MNLY IN THE L/M80S.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF INTO GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL
PUSH INTO SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUN EVENING...AND SLOWLY SPREAD
N/NE OVERNIGHT INTO MON. THIS WILL SUPPORT LIKELY POPS ONCE AGAIN
ACRS MOST OF THE CWA (WILL KEEP POPS A LITTLE LOWER ALONG THE
COAST). MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB CLDS- MOSTLY
CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS TRANSITIONING A BIT TO THE N/W AS UPPER
LOW APPROACHES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HI TEMPS IN THE L 80S NW
TO THE UPPER 80S SE. FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER BY TUE...WITH JUST
20-3% POPS MAINLY IN THE AFTN/EVENING WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
80S/AROUND 90 F.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH TUE (MOST OF IT OCCURRING TONIGHT INTO
MON) WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE
NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF ABT 1/2 INCH OVR THE LWR MD ERN SHORE.
HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS
(1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT
PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE COMING WEEK AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE SERN
U.S. AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT FRI/SAT.
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THIS AFTN AND INTO TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ALONG WITH SURFACE
BOUNDARY STRETCHING E TO W ACROSS CENTRAL VA WILL PHASE OVER THE
AREA SUPPORTING THE STORM DEVELOPMENT. HEAVY RAIN REDUCING VIS AND
GUSTY WINDS(UP TO 3OKT) WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE STORMS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY AS THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVES
SOUTH AND WAVES OF UPPER ENERGY MOVE OVER THE AREA. MVFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY FOR SITES THAT GET NORTH/WEST OF THE FRONT.

PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED INTO MONDAY AS WEATHER PATTERN
REMAINS UNCHANGED.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MD WATERS THIS AFTN
WILL DROP SOUTH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE
VA/NC BORDER ON SUNDAY. MAINLY W-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL VEER AROUND TO THE N-NE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...EXCEPT
NEAR/SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER WHERE THEY`LL REMAIN W-SW AOB 15 KT.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING E-SE AOB 15 KT ALL WATERS. LIGHT E-SE WINDS CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING S-SW AOB 15 KT TUE/WED. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN 2-3 FT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT ON THE
CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG/DAP
MARINE...JDM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 042000
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
400 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO
THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATES SFC LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW INTO NORTHERN VA.
SOMEWHAT OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT...WITH ONE UPPER TROUGH
OVER ERN CANADA...AND ANOTHER LAGGING WELL OFF TO OUR SW ACRS THE
DEEP SOUTH/GULF COAST STATES. CURRENT RADAR SHOWING INCREASING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER NW SECTIONS OF THE CWA...THIS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AS WELL AS
UPPER LEVEL RRQ FORCING FROM 250-300 MB UPPER LEVEL JET. ANOTHER
AREA OF MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS ONGOING IN NE NC ALONG THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND...THIS ASSOCIATED MORE W/ HIGHER LEVELS ON
INSTABILITY/LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.

MAIN CONCERN THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM
POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL AREAS OF OF MDT/HVY RAIN (ESPECIALLY OVER
SRN VA/NE NC WHERE SOME OF THESE AREAS RECEIVED 1-3 INCHES/LOCALLY
HIGHER AMTS FRI EVENING. CURRENTLY THOUGH...MUCH OF THIS AREA NOT
SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF STORM COVERAGE...SO HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD
OFF ON ANY FLOOD WATCHES. ALSO...SPC/RAP MESOANALYSIS SHOWS ~30KT
OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR INTO SRN /SE VA BY INTO EARLY EVENING...SO
SOME GUSTY WINDS TO ~45 MPH POSSIBLE WITH STORMS OVER THE FAR
SOUTH. WILL HAVE HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS ALL ZONES THIS
EVENING...GRADUALLY SHIFTING S/E OVERNIGHT. LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH
CONTINUED FORCING TO MAINTAIN CHC POPS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT ACRS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH. LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S NW TO THE LWR
70S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FNTL BEGINS TO MOVE BACK N ONCE AGN LT SUN INTO MON AS LO PRES
SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE FM THE GULF STATES TO THE CNTRL MTNS. THERE RMN
SOME MDL INCONSISTENCIES IN THIS SCENARIO...LARGELY RELATING TO
TIMING AND WHERE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF TAKES PLACE.

LINGERING SHRAS/TSTMS TNGT FAR SRN VA/NE NC WHILE DRYING OCCURS
OVR NNE PORTIONS OF THE FA (ESP AFT MDNGT). THE FAVORED AREA OF
ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS ON SUN LIKELY TO BE FM SCNTRL VA TO FAR SE
VA/NE NC INVOF STALLED FNTL BNDRY. MOSTLY CLOUDY S...PARTLY CLOUDY
NE TNGT THROUGH SUN. LO TEMPS FM THE M/U60S N TO THE U60S- L70S S.
HI TEMPS SUN MNLY IN THE L/M80S.

00Z/06 NAM FARTHER W W/ AXIS OF SGFNT PCPN SUN NGT INTO MON AS LO
PRES MOVES INTO THE CNTRL MTNS. WILL HAVE POPS GRADUALLY INCRSG
INTO CNTRL/INTERIOR ERN VA INTO MON...WHILE KEEPING POPS LWR AT
MUCH OF THE CST. MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB
CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH MON XPCD TO AVG 1-1.5 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL
VA TO INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF ABT 1/2 INCH OVR THE
LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL
DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR REPEATING
SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE COMING WEEK AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE SERN
U.S. AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT FRI/SAT.
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THIS AFTN AND INTO TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ALONG WITH SURFACE
BOUNDARY STRETCHING E TO W ACROSS CENTRAL VA WILL PHASE OVER THE
AREA SUPPORTING THE STORM DEVELOPMENT. HEAVY RAIN REDUCING VIS AND
GUSTY WINDS(UP TO 3OKT) WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE STORMS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY AS THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVES
SOUTH AND WAVES OF UPPER ENERGY MOVE OVER THE AREA. MVFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY FOR SITES THAT GET NORTH/WEST OF THE FRONT.

PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED INTO MONDAY AS WEATHER PATTERN
REMAINS UNCHANGED.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MD WATERS THIS AFTN
WILL DROP SOUTH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE
VA/NC BORDER ON SUNDAY. MAINLY W-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL VEER AROUND TO THE N-NE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...EXCEPT
NEAR/SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER WHERE THEY`LL REMAIN W-SW AOB 15 KT.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING E-SE AOB 15 KT ALL WATERS. LIGHT E-SE WINDS CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING S-SW AOB 15 KT TUE/WED. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN 2-3 FT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT ON THE
CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG/DAP
MARINE...JDM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 042000
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
400 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO
THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATES SFC LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW INTO NORTHERN VA.
SOMEWHAT OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT...WITH ONE UPPER TROUGH
OVER ERN CANADA...AND ANOTHER LAGGING WELL OFF TO OUR SW ACRS THE
DEEP SOUTH/GULF COAST STATES. CURRENT RADAR SHOWING INCREASING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER NW SECTIONS OF THE CWA...THIS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AS WELL AS
UPPER LEVEL RRQ FORCING FROM 250-300 MB UPPER LEVEL JET. ANOTHER
AREA OF MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS ONGOING IN NE NC ALONG THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND...THIS ASSOCIATED MORE W/ HIGHER LEVELS ON
INSTABILITY/LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.

MAIN CONCERN THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM
POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL AREAS OF OF MDT/HVY RAIN (ESPECIALLY OVER
SRN VA/NE NC WHERE SOME OF THESE AREAS RECEIVED 1-3 INCHES/LOCALLY
HIGHER AMTS FRI EVENING. CURRENTLY THOUGH...MUCH OF THIS AREA NOT
SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF STORM COVERAGE...SO HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD
OFF ON ANY FLOOD WATCHES. ALSO...SPC/RAP MESOANALYSIS SHOWS ~30KT
OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR INTO SRN /SE VA BY INTO EARLY EVENING...SO
SOME GUSTY WINDS TO ~45 MPH POSSIBLE WITH STORMS OVER THE FAR
SOUTH. WILL HAVE HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS ALL ZONES THIS
EVENING...GRADUALLY SHIFTING S/E OVERNIGHT. LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH
CONTINUED FORCING TO MAINTAIN CHC POPS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT ACRS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH. LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S NW TO THE LWR
70S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FNTL BEGINS TO MOVE BACK N ONCE AGN LT SUN INTO MON AS LO PRES
SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE FM THE GULF STATES TO THE CNTRL MTNS. THERE RMN
SOME MDL INCONSISTENCIES IN THIS SCENARIO...LARGELY RELATING TO
TIMING AND WHERE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF TAKES PLACE.

LINGERING SHRAS/TSTMS TNGT FAR SRN VA/NE NC WHILE DRYING OCCURS
OVR NNE PORTIONS OF THE FA (ESP AFT MDNGT). THE FAVORED AREA OF
ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS ON SUN LIKELY TO BE FM SCNTRL VA TO FAR SE
VA/NE NC INVOF STALLED FNTL BNDRY. MOSTLY CLOUDY S...PARTLY CLOUDY
NE TNGT THROUGH SUN. LO TEMPS FM THE M/U60S N TO THE U60S- L70S S.
HI TEMPS SUN MNLY IN THE L/M80S.

00Z/06 NAM FARTHER W W/ AXIS OF SGFNT PCPN SUN NGT INTO MON AS LO
PRES MOVES INTO THE CNTRL MTNS. WILL HAVE POPS GRADUALLY INCRSG
INTO CNTRL/INTERIOR ERN VA INTO MON...WHILE KEEPING POPS LWR AT
MUCH OF THE CST. MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB
CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH MON XPCD TO AVG 1-1.5 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL
VA TO INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF ABT 1/2 INCH OVR THE
LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL
DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR REPEATING
SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE COMING WEEK AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE SERN
U.S. AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT FRI/SAT.
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THIS AFTN AND INTO TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ALONG WITH SURFACE
BOUNDARY STRETCHING E TO W ACROSS CENTRAL VA WILL PHASE OVER THE
AREA SUPPORTING THE STORM DEVELOPMENT. HEAVY RAIN REDUCING VIS AND
GUSTY WINDS(UP TO 3OKT) WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE STORMS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY AS THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVES
SOUTH AND WAVES OF UPPER ENERGY MOVE OVER THE AREA. MVFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY FOR SITES THAT GET NORTH/WEST OF THE FRONT.

PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED INTO MONDAY AS WEATHER PATTERN
REMAINS UNCHANGED.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MD WATERS THIS AFTN
WILL DROP SOUTH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE
VA/NC BORDER ON SUNDAY. MAINLY W-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL VEER AROUND TO THE N-NE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...EXCEPT
NEAR/SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER WHERE THEY`LL REMAIN W-SW AOB 15 KT.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING E-SE AOB 15 KT ALL WATERS. LIGHT E-SE WINDS CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING S-SW AOB 15 KT TUE/WED. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN 2-3 FT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT ON THE
CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG/DAP
MARINE...JDM



000
FXUS61 KRNK 041955
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
355 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...KEEPING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK...AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...

SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER TROF OVER EAST WITH
SURFACE FRONT WAVERING AROUND THROUGH THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE WILL
PUSH OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WHICH SWINGS COLD FRONT
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SOLAR HEATING HAS RESULTED IN
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE MOST UNSTABLE CAPES AND DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ON SPC HOURLY
MESO ANALYSIS POINTING TO EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE DAY ONE
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CLIPS THE SOUTHEAST OF CWA WITH A MARGINAL THREAT
WITH SLIGHT POTENTIAL ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THE WINDOW FOR
ANY STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON IS VERY SMALL. STORMS ARE MOVING
THUS NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FLOODING ISSUE.

THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD TAPER OFF THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT WITH JUST SOME LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
IT APPEARS THAT MANY LOCATIONS WILL BE ABLE TO GET OFF FIREWORKS
DISPLAYS. LOWS TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH READINGS
FROM AROUND 60 IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE
PIEDMONT.

THE WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO TRAVEL EAST ALONG THE UPPER TROUGH. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY SUNDAY LATE MORNING AND BECOME
NUMEROUS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER UPPER 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 80S IN THE
PIEDMONTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK
CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND ITS SUBSEQUENT
NORTHWARD DRIFT INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. TAIL END OF LONG
STANDING EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL BECOME CUTOFF ACROSS NORTHERN
GA/AL/EASTERN TN FROM THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH...WHICH WILL SHEAR
OUT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE DRIFTS INTO THE OH
VALLEY. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO
MON...FINALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY AS THE NEXT
UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH FROM GA IT TAKES ON A NEGATIVE
TILT...WHICH WILL FURTHER ENHANCE OVERALL WEAK DYNAMICS/LIFT AND
CERTAINLY PROLONG THE WET WEATHER PATTERN. ABUNDANT DEEP MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH PWATS IN THE 1.75 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. EXTENSIVE TO NEAR SOLID CLOUD COVER WILL
LIMIT HEATING...SO INSTABILITIES REMAIN MEAGER AND OVERALL
DYNAMICS ARE WEAK.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A LARGE SWATH OF DEEP
MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW AND OVERRUNNING EXISTING
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...TRACKING FROM GA/SC NORTHWARD INTO THE
RNK CWA BY SUN AFTERNOON...DRIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
CWA MON...THEN FINALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE CWA BY TUE. THIS
WILL SUPPORT HIGH PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH A LIMITED DIURNAL SWING
OF TEMPERATURE GIVEN THE UPPER LOW WILL ESSENTIALLY BE DRIFTING
RIGHT ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CWA.

THE PATH OF THE UPPER LOW SHOULD FOCUS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA...BLUE RIDGE AND WEST.
WITH 3HR FFG VALUES AVERAGING IN THE 1.5 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA AND THE RECENT PROLONGED WET SPELL...WE WILL NEED
TO MONITOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS CAREFULLY...HOWEVER...THE LACK OF ANY
ORGANIZED OR STRONG CONVECTION...GIVEN THE MEAGER LAPSE RATES AND
LACK OF INSTABILITY/DYNAMICS...SHOULD HOLD HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
IN CHECK. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THREAT OF POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
IN THE HWO...BUT POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE A CONCERN ATTM.

AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA TUE...WE SHOULD SEE
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TO FINALLY SQUELCH THE SHOWER THREAT
PROVIDING A BREAK BEFORE NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES TUESDAY
NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MON...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES TUESDAY WITH GREATER
INSOLATION. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGH PWATS/DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 445 PM EDT SATURDAY...

UNSETTLED WEATHER DESTINED TO CONTINUE. AFTER A VERY BRIEF
RESPITE FROM WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TUESDAY...A NEW FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL DRIFT INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY AND
THEN BECOME ELONGATED WEST-EAST ACROSS THE REGION AND STALL FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO OUR
SOUTH AND FASTER WESTERLIES TO OUR NORTH...THIS WILL FAVOR ACTIVE
BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH DAILY THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. PATTERN
SUPPORTS SOME ORGANIZATION OF STORM ACTIVITY AND POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS PER PRESENCE OF WITH ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE ENERGY THAT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE FASTER
WESTERLIES TO OUR NORTH.

THE UPPER FLOW ATTEMPTS TO TRANSITION BACK TO NORTHWEST FLOW
TOWARD THE WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WEST-
CENTRAL CONUS. THIS COULD REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED
CONVECTION/RAINFALL...BUT WILL NONETHELESS SUPPORT AN ACTIVE AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN.

WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE LEVELS CONTINUING...EXPECT
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES AND WELL ABOVE
NORMAL MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT SATURDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN POOR FLYING CONDITIONS IN CONVECTION AND LOW CLOUDS.
SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW TO THE WEST OF THE REGION WILL SPLIT...WITH
PARENT TROUGH SHEARING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY...WHILE A
WEAK CUTOFF DEVELOPS ALONG THE TAIL OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT NORTH INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

SCT TO BKN MVFR CLOUDS WILL LOWER TO IFR CONDITION IN CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. BAND OF SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT IS DIMINISHING AS TRAVELING SOUTH. HOWEVER...SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS FORMING IN THE UNSTABLE AIR. CAPES AND LIS WERE MOST
UNSTABLE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
THE TAF SITE WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM IS DAN. A
SHOWER MAY CLIP ANY OF THE TAF LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT.

OVERNIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES...BUT ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
WILL NOT DRIFT BACK INTO THE CWA UNTIL AFT 12 SUN.
HOWEVER...EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS/CIGS AND FOG TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD IFR- LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS.

SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5-7KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOMING LIGHT TO
CALM OVERNIGHT...HELPING TO PROMOTE WIDESPREAD FOG/LOW CLOUDS WITH
VERY MOIST GROUND IN PLACE.

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AT 5-10KTS SUNDAY.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS
DURING THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDOWS
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR VFR CONDITIONS INCREASE TUE. UPPER LOW/TROUGH
WILL LINGER WEST OF THE VA/NC COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN BEGIN TO DRIFT INTO NORTHERN VA
MON. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE OH VALLEY BY
WED. THIS LEAVES A VERY UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH
IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR-
VFR OUTSIDE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOONS. AT THIS
POINT...TUESDAY APPEARS TO OFFER THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...RAB/PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...KK/MBS/RAB



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 041933
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
333 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MORNING ANALYSIS INDICATES SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF
THE ATLC COAST OF THE ERN SHORE...WITH TRAILING SFC BOUNDARY
ALIGNED W-E OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER AREA
OF SFC LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACRS SW PA WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT OVER WV AND ERN KY. WSW FLOW PREVAILS ALOFT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS STILL ONGOING ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE UPPER BAY AND INTO
ACCOMACK CO VA AND MD ZONES. ELSEWHERE...RADAR GENLY PRECIP-FREE
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS...WITH INCREASING AMTS OF SUNSHINE OVER
FAR SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...HAVE SCALED BACK ON POPS TO GO W/ A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH ABOUT 18-19Z MOST AREAS (EXCEPT WILL MAINTAIN
LOW CHC POPS N/NE CLOSE TO THE FRONT) AS REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN
THE 2 SYSTEMS. AFTER 18-19Z...SFC LOW IN SW PA TRACKS ENE WITH
TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING E OF THE MTNS. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL PUSH ACRS THE REGION AS WELL...AND AREA WILL EVEN BE INTO
SOME RRQ FORCING FROM 250-300 MB UPPER LEVEL JET. WITH SFC
HEATING/INCREASING INSTABILITY...EXPECT POPS TO RAPIDLY RAMP BACK
UP TO HIGH CHC CENTRAL AND SE (40-50%) TO LIKELY (60%) N/NW. WILL
THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT LIKELY POPS INTO ERN/SE VA AFTER 20-21Z.
SPC/RAP MESOANALYSIS SHOWS ~30KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR INTO SRN /SE
VA BY LATE AFTN...SO SOME GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH STORMS (MORE
LIKELY IF ENOUGH SUNSHINE CAN PREVAIL THROUGH MID AFTN).
STILL...THE MAIN CONCERN LATER THIS AFTN/EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO
BE FROM POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL AREAS OF OF MDT/HVY RA (ESPECIALLY OVER
SRN VA/NE NC WHERE SOME OF THESE AREAS RECEIVED 1-3 INCHES/LOCALLY
HIGHER AMTS FRI EVE). DEPENDING ON RADAR TRENDS LATER TODAY...MAY
NEED TO ISSUE A FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WATCH W/ AFTN FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA (MAINLY SRN 1/2). HIGHS TODAY
RANGE FROM UPPER 80S/AROUND 90F FAR S/SE WITH VARIABLY/PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES TO THE UPPER 70S/LWR 80S N WHERE SKIES AVG CLOUDY/MOSTLY
CLOUDY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
FNTL BNDRY STALLS INVOF VA/NC BORDER TNGT...THEN BEGINS TO MOVE
BACK N ONCE AGN LT SUN INTO MON AS LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE FM
THE GULF STATES TO THE CNTRL MTNS. THERE RMN SOME MDL
INCONSISTENCIES IN THIS SCENARIO...LARGELY RELATING TO TIMING AND
WHERE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF TAKES PLACE.

LINGERING SHRAS/TSTMS TNGT FAR SRN VA/NE NC WHILE DRYING OCCURS
OVR NNE PORTIONS OF THE FA (ESP AFT MDNGT). THE FAVORED AREA OF
ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS ON SUN LIKELY TO BE FM SCNTRL VA TO FAR SE
VA/NE NC INVOF STALLED FNTL BNDRY. MOSTLY CLOUDY S...PARTLY CLOUDY
NE TNGT THROUGH SUN. LO TEMPS FM THE M/U60S N TO THE U60S- L70S S.
HI TEMPS SUN MNLY IN THE L/M80S.

00Z/06 NAM FARTHER W W/ AXIS OF SGFNT PCPN SUN NGT INTO MON AS LO
PRES MOVES INTO THE CNTRL MTNS. WILL HAVE POPS GRADUALLY INCRSG
INTO CNTRL/INTERIOR ERN VA INTO MON...WHILE KEEPING POPS LWR AT
MUCH OF THE CST. MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB
CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH MON XPCD TO AVG 1-1.5 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL
VA TO INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF ABT 1/2 INCH OVR THE
LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL
DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR REPEATING
SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY CONTINUED LOW AMPLITUDE
UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH GRADUAL RE-REEMERGENCE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT THAT WITH OCCASIONAL UPPER
DISTURBANCES/PERTURBATIONS PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC,
AS WEAK SFC TROUGH PERSISTS IN PLACE OVERHEAD, MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHC
RANGE BY DAY (NEAR CLIMO NORMS), W/ SLIGHT CHC OR LESS OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST PW VALUES WILL ALSO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD...LINGERING AROUND +2 S.D. ABOVE NORMAL. ACCORDINGLY, WE`LL
NEED TO BE ON GUARD FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, WITH THIS INCREASED HUMIDITY/DEWPOINTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD, CONTINUED TO RIDE ON THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE WITH
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...GENERALLY FAVORING A TYPICAL
MID-JULY WARM/MODERATELY HUMID SET UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 INLAND,
WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS 65 TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THIS AFTN AND INTO TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ALONG WITH SURFACE
BOUNDARY STRETCHING E TO W ACROSS CENTRAL VA WILL PHASE OVER THE
AREA SUPPORTING THE STORM DEVELOPMENT. HEAVY RAIN REDUCING VIS AND
GUSTY WINDS(UP TO 3OKT) WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE STORMS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY AS THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVES
SOUTH AND WAVES OF UPPER ENERGY MOVE OVER THE AREA. MVFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY FOR SITES THAT GET NORTH/WEST OF THE FRONT.

PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED INTO MONDAY AS WEATHER PATTERN
REMAINS UNCHANGED.


&&

.MARINE...
WSW GUSTS HAVE BEEN TO 20-25 KTS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY
FM ARND 0930Z THIS MORNG...AND WILL CALM DOWN TO MORE LIKE 15-20
KT GUSTS BY 13Z. SO...SINCE THIS WILL ONLY LAST ABT 3 HRS...HAVE
NOT ISSUED A SCA...AND HAVE WINDS AT 15 KT FOR THE FCST.

NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU SUN NGT. UNSETTLED WX
CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
FRNTL BNDRY WAS LIFTING N ACRS THE WTRS EARLY THIS MORNG...AND
WILL LIFT JUST N OF THE AREA BY ARND MIDDAY AS LO PRES MOVES NNE
OFF THE DE/MD CST. WINDS WILL SHIFT FM THE ESE OVR THE LWR MD AND
VA ERN SHR...TO THE SW OR W DURING THIS MORNG TO ARND MIDDAY. THE
FRONT WILL THEN DROP BACK S OF THE AREA THIS EVENG INTO SUN
MORNG...AS SFC LO TRACKS NE OUT TO SEA. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT...SEAS
2-3 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...TMG




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 041933
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
333 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MORNING ANALYSIS INDICATES SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF
THE ATLC COAST OF THE ERN SHORE...WITH TRAILING SFC BOUNDARY
ALIGNED W-E OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER AREA
OF SFC LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACRS SW PA WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT OVER WV AND ERN KY. WSW FLOW PREVAILS ALOFT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS STILL ONGOING ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE UPPER BAY AND INTO
ACCOMACK CO VA AND MD ZONES. ELSEWHERE...RADAR GENLY PRECIP-FREE
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS...WITH INCREASING AMTS OF SUNSHINE OVER
FAR SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...HAVE SCALED BACK ON POPS TO GO W/ A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH ABOUT 18-19Z MOST AREAS (EXCEPT WILL MAINTAIN
LOW CHC POPS N/NE CLOSE TO THE FRONT) AS REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN
THE 2 SYSTEMS. AFTER 18-19Z...SFC LOW IN SW PA TRACKS ENE WITH
TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING E OF THE MTNS. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL PUSH ACRS THE REGION AS WELL...AND AREA WILL EVEN BE INTO
SOME RRQ FORCING FROM 250-300 MB UPPER LEVEL JET. WITH SFC
HEATING/INCREASING INSTABILITY...EXPECT POPS TO RAPIDLY RAMP BACK
UP TO HIGH CHC CENTRAL AND SE (40-50%) TO LIKELY (60%) N/NW. WILL
THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT LIKELY POPS INTO ERN/SE VA AFTER 20-21Z.
SPC/RAP MESOANALYSIS SHOWS ~30KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR INTO SRN /SE
VA BY LATE AFTN...SO SOME GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH STORMS (MORE
LIKELY IF ENOUGH SUNSHINE CAN PREVAIL THROUGH MID AFTN).
STILL...THE MAIN CONCERN LATER THIS AFTN/EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO
BE FROM POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL AREAS OF OF MDT/HVY RA (ESPECIALLY OVER
SRN VA/NE NC WHERE SOME OF THESE AREAS RECEIVED 1-3 INCHES/LOCALLY
HIGHER AMTS FRI EVE). DEPENDING ON RADAR TRENDS LATER TODAY...MAY
NEED TO ISSUE A FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WATCH W/ AFTN FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA (MAINLY SRN 1/2). HIGHS TODAY
RANGE FROM UPPER 80S/AROUND 90F FAR S/SE WITH VARIABLY/PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES TO THE UPPER 70S/LWR 80S N WHERE SKIES AVG CLOUDY/MOSTLY
CLOUDY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
FNTL BNDRY STALLS INVOF VA/NC BORDER TNGT...THEN BEGINS TO MOVE
BACK N ONCE AGN LT SUN INTO MON AS LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE FM
THE GULF STATES TO THE CNTRL MTNS. THERE RMN SOME MDL
INCONSISTENCIES IN THIS SCENARIO...LARGELY RELATING TO TIMING AND
WHERE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF TAKES PLACE.

LINGERING SHRAS/TSTMS TNGT FAR SRN VA/NE NC WHILE DRYING OCCURS
OVR NNE PORTIONS OF THE FA (ESP AFT MDNGT). THE FAVORED AREA OF
ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS ON SUN LIKELY TO BE FM SCNTRL VA TO FAR SE
VA/NE NC INVOF STALLED FNTL BNDRY. MOSTLY CLOUDY S...PARTLY CLOUDY
NE TNGT THROUGH SUN. LO TEMPS FM THE M/U60S N TO THE U60S- L70S S.
HI TEMPS SUN MNLY IN THE L/M80S.

00Z/06 NAM FARTHER W W/ AXIS OF SGFNT PCPN SUN NGT INTO MON AS LO
PRES MOVES INTO THE CNTRL MTNS. WILL HAVE POPS GRADUALLY INCRSG
INTO CNTRL/INTERIOR ERN VA INTO MON...WHILE KEEPING POPS LWR AT
MUCH OF THE CST. MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB
CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH MON XPCD TO AVG 1-1.5 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL
VA TO INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF ABT 1/2 INCH OVR THE
LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL
DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR REPEATING
SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY CONTINUED LOW AMPLITUDE
UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH GRADUAL RE-REEMERGENCE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT THAT WITH OCCASIONAL UPPER
DISTURBANCES/PERTURBATIONS PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC,
AS WEAK SFC TROUGH PERSISTS IN PLACE OVERHEAD, MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHC
RANGE BY DAY (NEAR CLIMO NORMS), W/ SLIGHT CHC OR LESS OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST PW VALUES WILL ALSO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD...LINGERING AROUND +2 S.D. ABOVE NORMAL. ACCORDINGLY, WE`LL
NEED TO BE ON GUARD FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, WITH THIS INCREASED HUMIDITY/DEWPOINTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD, CONTINUED TO RIDE ON THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE WITH
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...GENERALLY FAVORING A TYPICAL
MID-JULY WARM/MODERATELY HUMID SET UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 INLAND,
WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS 65 TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THIS AFTN AND INTO TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ALONG WITH SURFACE
BOUNDARY STRETCHING E TO W ACROSS CENTRAL VA WILL PHASE OVER THE
AREA SUPPORTING THE STORM DEVELOPMENT. HEAVY RAIN REDUCING VIS AND
GUSTY WINDS(UP TO 3OKT) WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE STORMS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY AS THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVES
SOUTH AND WAVES OF UPPER ENERGY MOVE OVER THE AREA. MVFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY FOR SITES THAT GET NORTH/WEST OF THE FRONT.

PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED INTO MONDAY AS WEATHER PATTERN
REMAINS UNCHANGED.


&&

.MARINE...
WSW GUSTS HAVE BEEN TO 20-25 KTS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY
FM ARND 0930Z THIS MORNG...AND WILL CALM DOWN TO MORE LIKE 15-20
KT GUSTS BY 13Z. SO...SINCE THIS WILL ONLY LAST ABT 3 HRS...HAVE
NOT ISSUED A SCA...AND HAVE WINDS AT 15 KT FOR THE FCST.

NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU SUN NGT. UNSETTLED WX
CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
FRNTL BNDRY WAS LIFTING N ACRS THE WTRS EARLY THIS MORNG...AND
WILL LIFT JUST N OF THE AREA BY ARND MIDDAY AS LO PRES MOVES NNE
OFF THE DE/MD CST. WINDS WILL SHIFT FM THE ESE OVR THE LWR MD AND
VA ERN SHR...TO THE SW OR W DURING THIS MORNG TO ARND MIDDAY. THE
FRONT WILL THEN DROP BACK S OF THE AREA THIS EVENG INTO SUN
MORNG...AS SFC LO TRACKS NE OUT TO SEA. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT...SEAS
2-3 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...TMG




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 041933
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
333 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MORNING ANALYSIS INDICATES SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF
THE ATLC COAST OF THE ERN SHORE...WITH TRAILING SFC BOUNDARY
ALIGNED W-E OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER AREA
OF SFC LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACRS SW PA WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT OVER WV AND ERN KY. WSW FLOW PREVAILS ALOFT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS STILL ONGOING ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE UPPER BAY AND INTO
ACCOMACK CO VA AND MD ZONES. ELSEWHERE...RADAR GENLY PRECIP-FREE
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS...WITH INCREASING AMTS OF SUNSHINE OVER
FAR SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...HAVE SCALED BACK ON POPS TO GO W/ A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH ABOUT 18-19Z MOST AREAS (EXCEPT WILL MAINTAIN
LOW CHC POPS N/NE CLOSE TO THE FRONT) AS REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN
THE 2 SYSTEMS. AFTER 18-19Z...SFC LOW IN SW PA TRACKS ENE WITH
TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING E OF THE MTNS. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL PUSH ACRS THE REGION AS WELL...AND AREA WILL EVEN BE INTO
SOME RRQ FORCING FROM 250-300 MB UPPER LEVEL JET. WITH SFC
HEATING/INCREASING INSTABILITY...EXPECT POPS TO RAPIDLY RAMP BACK
UP TO HIGH CHC CENTRAL AND SE (40-50%) TO LIKELY (60%) N/NW. WILL
THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT LIKELY POPS INTO ERN/SE VA AFTER 20-21Z.
SPC/RAP MESOANALYSIS SHOWS ~30KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR INTO SRN /SE
VA BY LATE AFTN...SO SOME GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH STORMS (MORE
LIKELY IF ENOUGH SUNSHINE CAN PREVAIL THROUGH MID AFTN).
STILL...THE MAIN CONCERN LATER THIS AFTN/EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO
BE FROM POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL AREAS OF OF MDT/HVY RA (ESPECIALLY OVER
SRN VA/NE NC WHERE SOME OF THESE AREAS RECEIVED 1-3 INCHES/LOCALLY
HIGHER AMTS FRI EVE). DEPENDING ON RADAR TRENDS LATER TODAY...MAY
NEED TO ISSUE A FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WATCH W/ AFTN FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA (MAINLY SRN 1/2). HIGHS TODAY
RANGE FROM UPPER 80S/AROUND 90F FAR S/SE WITH VARIABLY/PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES TO THE UPPER 70S/LWR 80S N WHERE SKIES AVG CLOUDY/MOSTLY
CLOUDY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
FNTL BNDRY STALLS INVOF VA/NC BORDER TNGT...THEN BEGINS TO MOVE
BACK N ONCE AGN LT SUN INTO MON AS LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE FM
THE GULF STATES TO THE CNTRL MTNS. THERE RMN SOME MDL
INCONSISTENCIES IN THIS SCENARIO...LARGELY RELATING TO TIMING AND
WHERE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF TAKES PLACE.

LINGERING SHRAS/TSTMS TNGT FAR SRN VA/NE NC WHILE DRYING OCCURS
OVR NNE PORTIONS OF THE FA (ESP AFT MDNGT). THE FAVORED AREA OF
ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS ON SUN LIKELY TO BE FM SCNTRL VA TO FAR SE
VA/NE NC INVOF STALLED FNTL BNDRY. MOSTLY CLOUDY S...PARTLY CLOUDY
NE TNGT THROUGH SUN. LO TEMPS FM THE M/U60S N TO THE U60S- L70S S.
HI TEMPS SUN MNLY IN THE L/M80S.

00Z/06 NAM FARTHER W W/ AXIS OF SGFNT PCPN SUN NGT INTO MON AS LO
PRES MOVES INTO THE CNTRL MTNS. WILL HAVE POPS GRADUALLY INCRSG
INTO CNTRL/INTERIOR ERN VA INTO MON...WHILE KEEPING POPS LWR AT
MUCH OF THE CST. MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB
CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH MON XPCD TO AVG 1-1.5 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL
VA TO INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF ABT 1/2 INCH OVR THE
LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL
DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR REPEATING
SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY CONTINUED LOW AMPLITUDE
UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH GRADUAL RE-REEMERGENCE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT THAT WITH OCCASIONAL UPPER
DISTURBANCES/PERTURBATIONS PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC,
AS WEAK SFC TROUGH PERSISTS IN PLACE OVERHEAD, MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHC
RANGE BY DAY (NEAR CLIMO NORMS), W/ SLIGHT CHC OR LESS OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST PW VALUES WILL ALSO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD...LINGERING AROUND +2 S.D. ABOVE NORMAL. ACCORDINGLY, WE`LL
NEED TO BE ON GUARD FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, WITH THIS INCREASED HUMIDITY/DEWPOINTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD, CONTINUED TO RIDE ON THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE WITH
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...GENERALLY FAVORING A TYPICAL
MID-JULY WARM/MODERATELY HUMID SET UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 INLAND,
WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS 65 TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THIS AFTN AND INTO TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ALONG WITH SURFACE
BOUNDARY STRETCHING E TO W ACROSS CENTRAL VA WILL PHASE OVER THE
AREA SUPPORTING THE STORM DEVELOPMENT. HEAVY RAIN REDUCING VIS AND
GUSTY WINDS(UP TO 3OKT) WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE STORMS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY AS THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVES
SOUTH AND WAVES OF UPPER ENERGY MOVE OVER THE AREA. MVFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY FOR SITES THAT GET NORTH/WEST OF THE FRONT.

PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED INTO MONDAY AS WEATHER PATTERN
REMAINS UNCHANGED.


&&

.MARINE...
WSW GUSTS HAVE BEEN TO 20-25 KTS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY
FM ARND 0930Z THIS MORNG...AND WILL CALM DOWN TO MORE LIKE 15-20
KT GUSTS BY 13Z. SO...SINCE THIS WILL ONLY LAST ABT 3 HRS...HAVE
NOT ISSUED A SCA...AND HAVE WINDS AT 15 KT FOR THE FCST.

NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU SUN NGT. UNSETTLED WX
CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
FRNTL BNDRY WAS LIFTING N ACRS THE WTRS EARLY THIS MORNG...AND
WILL LIFT JUST N OF THE AREA BY ARND MIDDAY AS LO PRES MOVES NNE
OFF THE DE/MD CST. WINDS WILL SHIFT FM THE ESE OVR THE LWR MD AND
VA ERN SHR...TO THE SW OR W DURING THIS MORNG TO ARND MIDDAY. THE
FRONT WILL THEN DROP BACK S OF THE AREA THIS EVENG INTO SUN
MORNG...AS SFC LO TRACKS NE OUT TO SEA. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT...SEAS
2-3 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...TMG




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 041933
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
333 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MORNING ANALYSIS INDICATES SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF
THE ATLC COAST OF THE ERN SHORE...WITH TRAILING SFC BOUNDARY
ALIGNED W-E OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER AREA
OF SFC LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACRS SW PA WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT OVER WV AND ERN KY. WSW FLOW PREVAILS ALOFT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS STILL ONGOING ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE UPPER BAY AND INTO
ACCOMACK CO VA AND MD ZONES. ELSEWHERE...RADAR GENLY PRECIP-FREE
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS...WITH INCREASING AMTS OF SUNSHINE OVER
FAR SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...HAVE SCALED BACK ON POPS TO GO W/ A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH ABOUT 18-19Z MOST AREAS (EXCEPT WILL MAINTAIN
LOW CHC POPS N/NE CLOSE TO THE FRONT) AS REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN
THE 2 SYSTEMS. AFTER 18-19Z...SFC LOW IN SW PA TRACKS ENE WITH
TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING E OF THE MTNS. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL PUSH ACRS THE REGION AS WELL...AND AREA WILL EVEN BE INTO
SOME RRQ FORCING FROM 250-300 MB UPPER LEVEL JET. WITH SFC
HEATING/INCREASING INSTABILITY...EXPECT POPS TO RAPIDLY RAMP BACK
UP TO HIGH CHC CENTRAL AND SE (40-50%) TO LIKELY (60%) N/NW. WILL
THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT LIKELY POPS INTO ERN/SE VA AFTER 20-21Z.
SPC/RAP MESOANALYSIS SHOWS ~30KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR INTO SRN /SE
VA BY LATE AFTN...SO SOME GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH STORMS (MORE
LIKELY IF ENOUGH SUNSHINE CAN PREVAIL THROUGH MID AFTN).
STILL...THE MAIN CONCERN LATER THIS AFTN/EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO
BE FROM POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL AREAS OF OF MDT/HVY RA (ESPECIALLY OVER
SRN VA/NE NC WHERE SOME OF THESE AREAS RECEIVED 1-3 INCHES/LOCALLY
HIGHER AMTS FRI EVE). DEPENDING ON RADAR TRENDS LATER TODAY...MAY
NEED TO ISSUE A FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WATCH W/ AFTN FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA (MAINLY SRN 1/2). HIGHS TODAY
RANGE FROM UPPER 80S/AROUND 90F FAR S/SE WITH VARIABLY/PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES TO THE UPPER 70S/LWR 80S N WHERE SKIES AVG CLOUDY/MOSTLY
CLOUDY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
FNTL BNDRY STALLS INVOF VA/NC BORDER TNGT...THEN BEGINS TO MOVE
BACK N ONCE AGN LT SUN INTO MON AS LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE FM
THE GULF STATES TO THE CNTRL MTNS. THERE RMN SOME MDL
INCONSISTENCIES IN THIS SCENARIO...LARGELY RELATING TO TIMING AND
WHERE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF TAKES PLACE.

LINGERING SHRAS/TSTMS TNGT FAR SRN VA/NE NC WHILE DRYING OCCURS
OVR NNE PORTIONS OF THE FA (ESP AFT MDNGT). THE FAVORED AREA OF
ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS ON SUN LIKELY TO BE FM SCNTRL VA TO FAR SE
VA/NE NC INVOF STALLED FNTL BNDRY. MOSTLY CLOUDY S...PARTLY CLOUDY
NE TNGT THROUGH SUN. LO TEMPS FM THE M/U60S N TO THE U60S- L70S S.
HI TEMPS SUN MNLY IN THE L/M80S.

00Z/06 NAM FARTHER W W/ AXIS OF SGFNT PCPN SUN NGT INTO MON AS LO
PRES MOVES INTO THE CNTRL MTNS. WILL HAVE POPS GRADUALLY INCRSG
INTO CNTRL/INTERIOR ERN VA INTO MON...WHILE KEEPING POPS LWR AT
MUCH OF THE CST. MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB
CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH MON XPCD TO AVG 1-1.5 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL
VA TO INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF ABT 1/2 INCH OVR THE
LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL
DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR REPEATING
SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY CONTINUED LOW AMPLITUDE
UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH GRADUAL RE-REEMERGENCE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT THAT WITH OCCASIONAL UPPER
DISTURBANCES/PERTURBATIONS PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC,
AS WEAK SFC TROUGH PERSISTS IN PLACE OVERHEAD, MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHC
RANGE BY DAY (NEAR CLIMO NORMS), W/ SLIGHT CHC OR LESS OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST PW VALUES WILL ALSO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD...LINGERING AROUND +2 S.D. ABOVE NORMAL. ACCORDINGLY, WE`LL
NEED TO BE ON GUARD FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, WITH THIS INCREASED HUMIDITY/DEWPOINTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD, CONTINUED TO RIDE ON THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE WITH
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...GENERALLY FAVORING A TYPICAL
MID-JULY WARM/MODERATELY HUMID SET UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 INLAND,
WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS 65 TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THIS AFTN AND INTO TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ALONG WITH SURFACE
BOUNDARY STRETCHING E TO W ACROSS CENTRAL VA WILL PHASE OVER THE
AREA SUPPORTING THE STORM DEVELOPMENT. HEAVY RAIN REDUCING VIS AND
GUSTY WINDS(UP TO 3OKT) WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE STORMS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY AS THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVES
SOUTH AND WAVES OF UPPER ENERGY MOVE OVER THE AREA. MVFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY FOR SITES THAT GET NORTH/WEST OF THE FRONT.

PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED INTO MONDAY AS WEATHER PATTERN
REMAINS UNCHANGED.


&&

.MARINE...
WSW GUSTS HAVE BEEN TO 20-25 KTS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY
FM ARND 0930Z THIS MORNG...AND WILL CALM DOWN TO MORE LIKE 15-20
KT GUSTS BY 13Z. SO...SINCE THIS WILL ONLY LAST ABT 3 HRS...HAVE
NOT ISSUED A SCA...AND HAVE WINDS AT 15 KT FOR THE FCST.

NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU SUN NGT. UNSETTLED WX
CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
FRNTL BNDRY WAS LIFTING N ACRS THE WTRS EARLY THIS MORNG...AND
WILL LIFT JUST N OF THE AREA BY ARND MIDDAY AS LO PRES MOVES NNE
OFF THE DE/MD CST. WINDS WILL SHIFT FM THE ESE OVR THE LWR MD AND
VA ERN SHR...TO THE SW OR W DURING THIS MORNG TO ARND MIDDAY. THE
FRONT WILL THEN DROP BACK S OF THE AREA THIS EVENG INTO SUN
MORNG...AS SFC LO TRACKS NE OUT TO SEA. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT...SEAS
2-3 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...TMG




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 041933
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
333 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MORNING ANALYSIS INDICATES SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF
THE ATLC COAST OF THE ERN SHORE...WITH TRAILING SFC BOUNDARY
ALIGNED W-E OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER AREA
OF SFC LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACRS SW PA WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT OVER WV AND ERN KY. WSW FLOW PREVAILS ALOFT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS STILL ONGOING ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE UPPER BAY AND INTO
ACCOMACK CO VA AND MD ZONES. ELSEWHERE...RADAR GENLY PRECIP-FREE
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS...WITH INCREASING AMTS OF SUNSHINE OVER
FAR SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...HAVE SCALED BACK ON POPS TO GO W/ A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH ABOUT 18-19Z MOST AREAS (EXCEPT WILL MAINTAIN
LOW CHC POPS N/NE CLOSE TO THE FRONT) AS REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN
THE 2 SYSTEMS. AFTER 18-19Z...SFC LOW IN SW PA TRACKS ENE WITH
TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING E OF THE MTNS. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL PUSH ACRS THE REGION AS WELL...AND AREA WILL EVEN BE INTO
SOME RRQ FORCING FROM 250-300 MB UPPER LEVEL JET. WITH SFC
HEATING/INCREASING INSTABILITY...EXPECT POPS TO RAPIDLY RAMP BACK
UP TO HIGH CHC CENTRAL AND SE (40-50%) TO LIKELY (60%) N/NW. WILL
THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT LIKELY POPS INTO ERN/SE VA AFTER 20-21Z.
SPC/RAP MESOANALYSIS SHOWS ~30KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR INTO SRN /SE
VA BY LATE AFTN...SO SOME GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH STORMS (MORE
LIKELY IF ENOUGH SUNSHINE CAN PREVAIL THROUGH MID AFTN).
STILL...THE MAIN CONCERN LATER THIS AFTN/EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO
BE FROM POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL AREAS OF OF MDT/HVY RA (ESPECIALLY OVER
SRN VA/NE NC WHERE SOME OF THESE AREAS RECEIVED 1-3 INCHES/LOCALLY
HIGHER AMTS FRI EVE). DEPENDING ON RADAR TRENDS LATER TODAY...MAY
NEED TO ISSUE A FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WATCH W/ AFTN FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA (MAINLY SRN 1/2). HIGHS TODAY
RANGE FROM UPPER 80S/AROUND 90F FAR S/SE WITH VARIABLY/PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES TO THE UPPER 70S/LWR 80S N WHERE SKIES AVG CLOUDY/MOSTLY
CLOUDY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
FNTL BNDRY STALLS INVOF VA/NC BORDER TNGT...THEN BEGINS TO MOVE
BACK N ONCE AGN LT SUN INTO MON AS LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE FM
THE GULF STATES TO THE CNTRL MTNS. THERE RMN SOME MDL
INCONSISTENCIES IN THIS SCENARIO...LARGELY RELATING TO TIMING AND
WHERE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF TAKES PLACE.

LINGERING SHRAS/TSTMS TNGT FAR SRN VA/NE NC WHILE DRYING OCCURS
OVR NNE PORTIONS OF THE FA (ESP AFT MDNGT). THE FAVORED AREA OF
ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS ON SUN LIKELY TO BE FM SCNTRL VA TO FAR SE
VA/NE NC INVOF STALLED FNTL BNDRY. MOSTLY CLOUDY S...PARTLY CLOUDY
NE TNGT THROUGH SUN. LO TEMPS FM THE M/U60S N TO THE U60S- L70S S.
HI TEMPS SUN MNLY IN THE L/M80S.

00Z/06 NAM FARTHER W W/ AXIS OF SGFNT PCPN SUN NGT INTO MON AS LO
PRES MOVES INTO THE CNTRL MTNS. WILL HAVE POPS GRADUALLY INCRSG
INTO CNTRL/INTERIOR ERN VA INTO MON...WHILE KEEPING POPS LWR AT
MUCH OF THE CST. MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB
CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH MON XPCD TO AVG 1-1.5 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL
VA TO INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF ABT 1/2 INCH OVR THE
LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL
DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR REPEATING
SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY CONTINUED LOW AMPLITUDE
UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH GRADUAL RE-REEMERGENCE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT THAT WITH OCCASIONAL UPPER
DISTURBANCES/PERTURBATIONS PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC,
AS WEAK SFC TROUGH PERSISTS IN PLACE OVERHEAD, MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHC
RANGE BY DAY (NEAR CLIMO NORMS), W/ SLIGHT CHC OR LESS OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST PW VALUES WILL ALSO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD...LINGERING AROUND +2 S.D. ABOVE NORMAL. ACCORDINGLY, WE`LL
NEED TO BE ON GUARD FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, WITH THIS INCREASED HUMIDITY/DEWPOINTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD, CONTINUED TO RIDE ON THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE WITH
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...GENERALLY FAVORING A TYPICAL
MID-JULY WARM/MODERATELY HUMID SET UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 INLAND,
WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS 65 TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THIS AFTN AND INTO TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ALONG WITH SURFACE
BOUNDARY STRETCHING E TO W ACROSS CENTRAL VA WILL PHASE OVER THE
AREA SUPPORTING THE STORM DEVELOPMENT. HEAVY RAIN REDUCING VIS AND
GUSTY WINDS(UP TO 3OKT) WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE STORMS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY AS THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVES
SOUTH AND WAVES OF UPPER ENERGY MOVE OVER THE AREA. MVFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY FOR SITES THAT GET NORTH/WEST OF THE FRONT.

PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED INTO MONDAY AS WEATHER PATTERN
REMAINS UNCHANGED.


&&

.MARINE...
WSW GUSTS HAVE BEEN TO 20-25 KTS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY
FM ARND 0930Z THIS MORNG...AND WILL CALM DOWN TO MORE LIKE 15-20
KT GUSTS BY 13Z. SO...SINCE THIS WILL ONLY LAST ABT 3 HRS...HAVE
NOT ISSUED A SCA...AND HAVE WINDS AT 15 KT FOR THE FCST.

NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU SUN NGT. UNSETTLED WX
CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
FRNTL BNDRY WAS LIFTING N ACRS THE WTRS EARLY THIS MORNG...AND
WILL LIFT JUST N OF THE AREA BY ARND MIDDAY AS LO PRES MOVES NNE
OFF THE DE/MD CST. WINDS WILL SHIFT FM THE ESE OVR THE LWR MD AND
VA ERN SHR...TO THE SW OR W DURING THIS MORNG TO ARND MIDDAY. THE
FRONT WILL THEN DROP BACK S OF THE AREA THIS EVENG INTO SUN
MORNG...AS SFC LO TRACKS NE OUT TO SEA. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT...SEAS
2-3 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...TMG



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 041933
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
333 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MORNING ANALYSIS INDICATES SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF
THE ATLC COAST OF THE ERN SHORE...WITH TRAILING SFC BOUNDARY
ALIGNED W-E OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER AREA
OF SFC LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACRS SW PA WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT OVER WV AND ERN KY. WSW FLOW PREVAILS ALOFT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS STILL ONGOING ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE UPPER BAY AND INTO
ACCOMACK CO VA AND MD ZONES. ELSEWHERE...RADAR GENLY PRECIP-FREE
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS...WITH INCREASING AMTS OF SUNSHINE OVER
FAR SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...HAVE SCALED BACK ON POPS TO GO W/ A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH ABOUT 18-19Z MOST AREAS (EXCEPT WILL MAINTAIN
LOW CHC POPS N/NE CLOSE TO THE FRONT) AS REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN
THE 2 SYSTEMS. AFTER 18-19Z...SFC LOW IN SW PA TRACKS ENE WITH
TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING E OF THE MTNS. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL PUSH ACRS THE REGION AS WELL...AND AREA WILL EVEN BE INTO
SOME RRQ FORCING FROM 250-300 MB UPPER LEVEL JET. WITH SFC
HEATING/INCREASING INSTABILITY...EXPECT POPS TO RAPIDLY RAMP BACK
UP TO HIGH CHC CENTRAL AND SE (40-50%) TO LIKELY (60%) N/NW. WILL
THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT LIKELY POPS INTO ERN/SE VA AFTER 20-21Z.
SPC/RAP MESOANALYSIS SHOWS ~30KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR INTO SRN /SE
VA BY LATE AFTN...SO SOME GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH STORMS (MORE
LIKELY IF ENOUGH SUNSHINE CAN PREVAIL THROUGH MID AFTN).
STILL...THE MAIN CONCERN LATER THIS AFTN/EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO
BE FROM POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL AREAS OF OF MDT/HVY RA (ESPECIALLY OVER
SRN VA/NE NC WHERE SOME OF THESE AREAS RECEIVED 1-3 INCHES/LOCALLY
HIGHER AMTS FRI EVE). DEPENDING ON RADAR TRENDS LATER TODAY...MAY
NEED TO ISSUE A FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WATCH W/ AFTN FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA (MAINLY SRN 1/2). HIGHS TODAY
RANGE FROM UPPER 80S/AROUND 90F FAR S/SE WITH VARIABLY/PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES TO THE UPPER 70S/LWR 80S N WHERE SKIES AVG CLOUDY/MOSTLY
CLOUDY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
FNTL BNDRY STALLS INVOF VA/NC BORDER TNGT...THEN BEGINS TO MOVE
BACK N ONCE AGN LT SUN INTO MON AS LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE FM
THE GULF STATES TO THE CNTRL MTNS. THERE RMN SOME MDL
INCONSISTENCIES IN THIS SCENARIO...LARGELY RELATING TO TIMING AND
WHERE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF TAKES PLACE.

LINGERING SHRAS/TSTMS TNGT FAR SRN VA/NE NC WHILE DRYING OCCURS
OVR NNE PORTIONS OF THE FA (ESP AFT MDNGT). THE FAVORED AREA OF
ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS ON SUN LIKELY TO BE FM SCNTRL VA TO FAR SE
VA/NE NC INVOF STALLED FNTL BNDRY. MOSTLY CLOUDY S...PARTLY CLOUDY
NE TNGT THROUGH SUN. LO TEMPS FM THE M/U60S N TO THE U60S- L70S S.
HI TEMPS SUN MNLY IN THE L/M80S.

00Z/06 NAM FARTHER W W/ AXIS OF SGFNT PCPN SUN NGT INTO MON AS LO
PRES MOVES INTO THE CNTRL MTNS. WILL HAVE POPS GRADUALLY INCRSG
INTO CNTRL/INTERIOR ERN VA INTO MON...WHILE KEEPING POPS LWR AT
MUCH OF THE CST. MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB
CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH MON XPCD TO AVG 1-1.5 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL
VA TO INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF ABT 1/2 INCH OVR THE
LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL
DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR REPEATING
SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY CONTINUED LOW AMPLITUDE
UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH GRADUAL RE-REEMERGENCE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT THAT WITH OCCASIONAL UPPER
DISTURBANCES/PERTURBATIONS PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC,
AS WEAK SFC TROUGH PERSISTS IN PLACE OVERHEAD, MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHC
RANGE BY DAY (NEAR CLIMO NORMS), W/ SLIGHT CHC OR LESS OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST PW VALUES WILL ALSO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD...LINGERING AROUND +2 S.D. ABOVE NORMAL. ACCORDINGLY, WE`LL
NEED TO BE ON GUARD FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, WITH THIS INCREASED HUMIDITY/DEWPOINTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD, CONTINUED TO RIDE ON THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE WITH
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...GENERALLY FAVORING A TYPICAL
MID-JULY WARM/MODERATELY HUMID SET UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 INLAND,
WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS 65 TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THIS AFTN AND INTO TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ALONG WITH SURFACE
BOUNDARY STRETCHING E TO W ACROSS CENTRAL VA WILL PHASE OVER THE
AREA SUPPORTING THE STORM DEVELOPMENT. HEAVY RAIN REDUCING VIS AND
GUSTY WINDS(UP TO 3OKT) WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE STORMS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY AS THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVES
SOUTH AND WAVES OF UPPER ENERGY MOVE OVER THE AREA. MVFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY FOR SITES THAT GET NORTH/WEST OF THE FRONT.

PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED INTO MONDAY AS WEATHER PATTERN
REMAINS UNCHANGED.


&&

.MARINE...
WSW GUSTS HAVE BEEN TO 20-25 KTS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY
FM ARND 0930Z THIS MORNG...AND WILL CALM DOWN TO MORE LIKE 15-20
KT GUSTS BY 13Z. SO...SINCE THIS WILL ONLY LAST ABT 3 HRS...HAVE
NOT ISSUED A SCA...AND HAVE WINDS AT 15 KT FOR THE FCST.

NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU SUN NGT. UNSETTLED WX
CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
FRNTL BNDRY WAS LIFTING N ACRS THE WTRS EARLY THIS MORNG...AND
WILL LIFT JUST N OF THE AREA BY ARND MIDDAY AS LO PRES MOVES NNE
OFF THE DE/MD CST. WINDS WILL SHIFT FM THE ESE OVR THE LWR MD AND
VA ERN SHR...TO THE SW OR W DURING THIS MORNG TO ARND MIDDAY. THE
FRONT WILL THEN DROP BACK S OF THE AREA THIS EVENG INTO SUN
MORNG...AS SFC LO TRACKS NE OUT TO SEA. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT...SEAS
2-3 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...TMG




000
FXUS61 KLWX 041908
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
308 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE AREA WILL
PUSH EAST TONIGHT. THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE COAST SUNDAY EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
IMPACTS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING UNSETTLED
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AS OF ABOUT 18Z INDICATED A LOW PRESSURE
EAST OF THE DELMARVA MOVING EAST...AND A WEAKER LOW OVER
NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA MOVING NORTHEAST. A WARM FRONT WAS
STRETCHED BETWEEN THE TWO LOWS...CROSSING OUR CWA APPROXIMATELY
BETWEEN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE. TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
FRONT...THE SUN HAS BROKEN THROUGH THE CLOUDS AND RESULTED IN
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THIS IS FIGHTING AGAINST AN
INCREASING PUSH OF DRY AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY LIMIT THE
HEIGHT OF THUNDERSTORM TOWERS AND KEEP THEM BELOW SEVERE LIMITS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DESPITE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SHEAR.
HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST FROM THE STORMS IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION.

TROUGH ALOFT WHICH IS HELPING TO SPARK OFF THE STORMS WILL SLIDE
EAST TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT...WHICH WILL
MOVE BACK SOUTH AS WHAT WILL TECHNICALLY BE CALLED A COLD FRONT.
STORMS SHOULD BE MOSTLY DONE BY ABOUT 9PM AND COMPLETELY OVER WITH
BY MIDNIGHT AS THEY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND WEAKEN. LINGERING
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS NORTH AND
WEST OF I-95. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SUNDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE METRO.
HOWEVER...FURTHER SOUTHWEST...A NEW CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP ALOFT
TONIGHT OVER THE TENESSEE VALLEY AND MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD OUR
REGION. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING AGAIN...AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD
STARTING IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE
WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE CWA BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. AFTER HIGHS
IN THE 80S SUNDAY...LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 60S ON SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT IS CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN BELT OF
WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA IN EARNEST
DURING THE DAY MON. COMBINATION OF SFC WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH
OVER AREA...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...AND VERY MOIST DEEP LAYER
WITH PWATS PROGGED TO BE NEAR 2 INCHES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
SHEAR REMAINS WEAK (0-6 KM EBS AOB 20 KTS) AND INSTABILITY COULD
BE LIMITED DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...WHICH WOULD LIMIT
OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY. TEMPS MIGHT NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED A LITTLE FURTHER DOWNWARD IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS...AS
AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT INSOLATION.

BULK OF ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE IS ENGULFED INTO THE NORTHERN
STREAM. LIKELY A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DISTURBANCE PROVIDING
SOME CLEARING DURING THE EARLY PART OF TUE. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
FORCING MECHANISM TUE...THOUGH COULD GET SOME ACTIVITY MOVING EAST
OFF HIGHER TERRAIN OR ALONG LEE TROUGH. STARTS GETTING A LITTLE
WARMER TUE...WITH TEMPS GETTING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL (U80S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DISTURBANCE LINGERS IN THE AREA TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES LATE ON WED. COLD FRONT SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTH OVER
THE CWA AND LINGERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...DRIER CONDITIONS
ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY ON LOCATION OF THE FRONT MAY
AFFECT POPS...BUT DIURNAL EFFECTS ALLOWS FOR THE RISK OF
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 80S...LOW TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE CWA...AND IN
THE MID TO UPR 60S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW CIGS HAVE MOSTLY LIFTED...SO MAIN CONCERN HAS BECOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. ANY STORM MAY PRODUCE BRIEF IFR
CIGS/VIS DUE MAINLY TO HEAVY RAIN...OR MAYBE A GUST TO 25 KNOTS.
STORMS WILL DISSIPATE/MOVE EAST THIS EVENING...BUT PATCHY FOG WITH
IFR VIS IS A CONCERN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY ESPECIALLY AT
CHO AND MRB. SUNDAY AFTER ANY FOG BREAKS SHOULD BE MOSTLY
VFR...THOUGH LATE IN THE DAY ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS LOOKS TO MOVE
INTO CHO AND THEN NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REST OF THE TERMINALS
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE CONCERNS ABOUT GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCED
VIS. OUTSIDE OF STORMS...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

IFR CIGS APPEAR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY MON IN MODERATE/HEAVY
RAIN SHWRS AND STORMS. IMPROVING TO MVFR LATE MON AND VFR BY
TUESDAY MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PULLS AWAY FROM THE
AREA.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUES NIGHT AND WED. SUB-VFR DUE TO
PSBL SHOWERS AND TSTMS WED AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE BAY AND SOME
ADJACENT WATERS DUE TO WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THESE SHOULD END EARLY THIS EVENING AND SUB-SCA
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. ANY STORMS THIS EVENING
COULD PRODUCE REDUCED VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN OR A WIND GUST TO
25 KNOTS...WHILE MORE STORMS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT MAY DO
LIKEWISE.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE MON....BUT COULD
STRENGTHEN SOME ON TUE DUE TO CHANNELING SRLY FLOW. COULD BE SOME
ISOLATED TSTMS MON AND AGAIN TUE AFTERNOON.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUES NIGHT AND WED. PSBL SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ACROSS THE WATERS ON WED AFTN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE DEPARTING EASTWARD ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN MORE
NORTHERLY SHOULD PREVENT ANY ADDITIONAL TIDAL FLOODING. ALL
ADVISORIES WERE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT NOON.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ533-
     534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...RCM
SHORT TERM...MSE/RCM
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...IMR/MSE/RCM
MARINE...IMR/MSE/RCM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RCM



000
FXUS61 KLWX 041908
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
308 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE AREA WILL
PUSH EAST TONIGHT. THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE COAST SUNDAY EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
IMPACTS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING UNSETTLED
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AS OF ABOUT 18Z INDICATED A LOW PRESSURE
EAST OF THE DELMARVA MOVING EAST...AND A WEAKER LOW OVER
NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA MOVING NORTHEAST. A WARM FRONT WAS
STRETCHED BETWEEN THE TWO LOWS...CROSSING OUR CWA APPROXIMATELY
BETWEEN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE. TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
FRONT...THE SUN HAS BROKEN THROUGH THE CLOUDS AND RESULTED IN
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THIS IS FIGHTING AGAINST AN
INCREASING PUSH OF DRY AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY LIMIT THE
HEIGHT OF THUNDERSTORM TOWERS AND KEEP THEM BELOW SEVERE LIMITS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DESPITE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SHEAR.
HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST FROM THE STORMS IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION.

TROUGH ALOFT WHICH IS HELPING TO SPARK OFF THE STORMS WILL SLIDE
EAST TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT...WHICH WILL
MOVE BACK SOUTH AS WHAT WILL TECHNICALLY BE CALLED A COLD FRONT.
STORMS SHOULD BE MOSTLY DONE BY ABOUT 9PM AND COMPLETELY OVER WITH
BY MIDNIGHT AS THEY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND WEAKEN. LINGERING
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS NORTH AND
WEST OF I-95. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SUNDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE METRO.
HOWEVER...FURTHER SOUTHWEST...A NEW CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP ALOFT
TONIGHT OVER THE TENESSEE VALLEY AND MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD OUR
REGION. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING AGAIN...AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD
STARTING IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE
WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE CWA BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. AFTER HIGHS
IN THE 80S SUNDAY...LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 60S ON SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT IS CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN BELT OF
WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA IN EARNEST
DURING THE DAY MON. COMBINATION OF SFC WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH
OVER AREA...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...AND VERY MOIST DEEP LAYER
WITH PWATS PROGGED TO BE NEAR 2 INCHES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
SHEAR REMAINS WEAK (0-6 KM EBS AOB 20 KTS) AND INSTABILITY COULD
BE LIMITED DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...WHICH WOULD LIMIT
OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY. TEMPS MIGHT NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED A LITTLE FURTHER DOWNWARD IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS...AS
AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT INSOLATION.

BULK OF ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE IS ENGULFED INTO THE NORTHERN
STREAM. LIKELY A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DISTURBANCE PROVIDING
SOME CLEARING DURING THE EARLY PART OF TUE. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
FORCING MECHANISM TUE...THOUGH COULD GET SOME ACTIVITY MOVING EAST
OFF HIGHER TERRAIN OR ALONG LEE TROUGH. STARTS GETTING A LITTLE
WARMER TUE...WITH TEMPS GETTING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL (U80S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DISTURBANCE LINGERS IN THE AREA TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES LATE ON WED. COLD FRONT SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTH OVER
THE CWA AND LINGERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...DRIER CONDITIONS
ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY ON LOCATION OF THE FRONT MAY
AFFECT POPS...BUT DIURNAL EFFECTS ALLOWS FOR THE RISK OF
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 80S...LOW TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE CWA...AND IN
THE MID TO UPR 60S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW CIGS HAVE MOSTLY LIFTED...SO MAIN CONCERN HAS BECOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. ANY STORM MAY PRODUCE BRIEF IFR
CIGS/VIS DUE MAINLY TO HEAVY RAIN...OR MAYBE A GUST TO 25 KNOTS.
STORMS WILL DISSIPATE/MOVE EAST THIS EVENING...BUT PATCHY FOG WITH
IFR VIS IS A CONCERN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY ESPECIALLY AT
CHO AND MRB. SUNDAY AFTER ANY FOG BREAKS SHOULD BE MOSTLY
VFR...THOUGH LATE IN THE DAY ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS LOOKS TO MOVE
INTO CHO AND THEN NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REST OF THE TERMINALS
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE CONCERNS ABOUT GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCED
VIS. OUTSIDE OF STORMS...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

IFR CIGS APPEAR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY MON IN MODERATE/HEAVY
RAIN SHWRS AND STORMS. IMPROVING TO MVFR LATE MON AND VFR BY
TUESDAY MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PULLS AWAY FROM THE
AREA.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUES NIGHT AND WED. SUB-VFR DUE TO
PSBL SHOWERS AND TSTMS WED AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE BAY AND SOME
ADJACENT WATERS DUE TO WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THESE SHOULD END EARLY THIS EVENING AND SUB-SCA
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. ANY STORMS THIS EVENING
COULD PRODUCE REDUCED VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN OR A WIND GUST TO
25 KNOTS...WHILE MORE STORMS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT MAY DO
LIKEWISE.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE MON....BUT COULD
STRENGTHEN SOME ON TUE DUE TO CHANNELING SRLY FLOW. COULD BE SOME
ISOLATED TSTMS MON AND AGAIN TUE AFTERNOON.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUES NIGHT AND WED. PSBL SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ACROSS THE WATERS ON WED AFTN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE DEPARTING EASTWARD ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN MORE
NORTHERLY SHOULD PREVENT ANY ADDITIONAL TIDAL FLOODING. ALL
ADVISORIES WERE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT NOON.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ533-
     534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...RCM
SHORT TERM...MSE/RCM
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...IMR/MSE/RCM
MARINE...IMR/MSE/RCM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RCM




000
FXUS61 KLWX 041908
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
308 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE AREA WILL
PUSH EAST TONIGHT. THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE COAST SUNDAY EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
IMPACTS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING UNSETTLED
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AS OF ABOUT 18Z INDICATED A LOW PRESSURE
EAST OF THE DELMARVA MOVING EAST...AND A WEAKER LOW OVER
NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA MOVING NORTHEAST. A WARM FRONT WAS
STRETCHED BETWEEN THE TWO LOWS...CROSSING OUR CWA APPROXIMATELY
BETWEEN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE. TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
FRONT...THE SUN HAS BROKEN THROUGH THE CLOUDS AND RESULTED IN
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THIS IS FIGHTING AGAINST AN
INCREASING PUSH OF DRY AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY LIMIT THE
HEIGHT OF THUNDERSTORM TOWERS AND KEEP THEM BELOW SEVERE LIMITS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DESPITE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SHEAR.
HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST FROM THE STORMS IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION.

TROUGH ALOFT WHICH IS HELPING TO SPARK OFF THE STORMS WILL SLIDE
EAST TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT...WHICH WILL
MOVE BACK SOUTH AS WHAT WILL TECHNICALLY BE CALLED A COLD FRONT.
STORMS SHOULD BE MOSTLY DONE BY ABOUT 9PM AND COMPLETELY OVER WITH
BY MIDNIGHT AS THEY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND WEAKEN. LINGERING
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS NORTH AND
WEST OF I-95. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SUNDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE METRO.
HOWEVER...FURTHER SOUTHWEST...A NEW CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP ALOFT
TONIGHT OVER THE TENESSEE VALLEY AND MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD OUR
REGION. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING AGAIN...AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD
STARTING IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE
WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE CWA BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. AFTER HIGHS
IN THE 80S SUNDAY...LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 60S ON SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT IS CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN BELT OF
WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA IN EARNEST
DURING THE DAY MON. COMBINATION OF SFC WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH
OVER AREA...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...AND VERY MOIST DEEP LAYER
WITH PWATS PROGGED TO BE NEAR 2 INCHES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
SHEAR REMAINS WEAK (0-6 KM EBS AOB 20 KTS) AND INSTABILITY COULD
BE LIMITED DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...WHICH WOULD LIMIT
OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY. TEMPS MIGHT NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED A LITTLE FURTHER DOWNWARD IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS...AS
AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT INSOLATION.

BULK OF ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE IS ENGULFED INTO THE NORTHERN
STREAM. LIKELY A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DISTURBANCE PROVIDING
SOME CLEARING DURING THE EARLY PART OF TUE. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
FORCING MECHANISM TUE...THOUGH COULD GET SOME ACTIVITY MOVING EAST
OFF HIGHER TERRAIN OR ALONG LEE TROUGH. STARTS GETTING A LITTLE
WARMER TUE...WITH TEMPS GETTING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL (U80S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DISTURBANCE LINGERS IN THE AREA TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES LATE ON WED. COLD FRONT SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTH OVER
THE CWA AND LINGERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...DRIER CONDITIONS
ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY ON LOCATION OF THE FRONT MAY
AFFECT POPS...BUT DIURNAL EFFECTS ALLOWS FOR THE RISK OF
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 80S...LOW TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE CWA...AND IN
THE MID TO UPR 60S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW CIGS HAVE MOSTLY LIFTED...SO MAIN CONCERN HAS BECOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. ANY STORM MAY PRODUCE BRIEF IFR
CIGS/VIS DUE MAINLY TO HEAVY RAIN...OR MAYBE A GUST TO 25 KNOTS.
STORMS WILL DISSIPATE/MOVE EAST THIS EVENING...BUT PATCHY FOG WITH
IFR VIS IS A CONCERN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY ESPECIALLY AT
CHO AND MRB. SUNDAY AFTER ANY FOG BREAKS SHOULD BE MOSTLY
VFR...THOUGH LATE IN THE DAY ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS LOOKS TO MOVE
INTO CHO AND THEN NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REST OF THE TERMINALS
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE CONCERNS ABOUT GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCED
VIS. OUTSIDE OF STORMS...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

IFR CIGS APPEAR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY MON IN MODERATE/HEAVY
RAIN SHWRS AND STORMS. IMPROVING TO MVFR LATE MON AND VFR BY
TUESDAY MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PULLS AWAY FROM THE
AREA.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUES NIGHT AND WED. SUB-VFR DUE TO
PSBL SHOWERS AND TSTMS WED AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE BAY AND SOME
ADJACENT WATERS DUE TO WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THESE SHOULD END EARLY THIS EVENING AND SUB-SCA
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. ANY STORMS THIS EVENING
COULD PRODUCE REDUCED VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN OR A WIND GUST TO
25 KNOTS...WHILE MORE STORMS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT MAY DO
LIKEWISE.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE MON....BUT COULD
STRENGTHEN SOME ON TUE DUE TO CHANNELING SRLY FLOW. COULD BE SOME
ISOLATED TSTMS MON AND AGAIN TUE AFTERNOON.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUES NIGHT AND WED. PSBL SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ACROSS THE WATERS ON WED AFTN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE DEPARTING EASTWARD ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN MORE
NORTHERLY SHOULD PREVENT ANY ADDITIONAL TIDAL FLOODING. ALL
ADVISORIES WERE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT NOON.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ533-
     534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...RCM
SHORT TERM...MSE/RCM
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...IMR/MSE/RCM
MARINE...IMR/MSE/RCM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RCM



000
FXUS61 KRNK 041746
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
146 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING US ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. THEN...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...KEEPING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK...AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM EDT SATURDAY...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES AND POPS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

AS OF 925 AM EDT SATURDAY...

ADJUSTED POPS WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDS THIS MORNING...THEN
MODIFIED TOWARDS HRRR AND HIRESW-ARW FOR LATE MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. MODIFIED TEMPERATURES WITH LATEST OBS AND COOL LATE
MORNING READINGS TOWARDS LAV. WITH WEST WINDS CREATING SOME
SUNSHINE...TWEAKED CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
MORE CHANGES AS DAY PROGRESSES. HAPPY 4TH OF JULY!


AS OF 430 AM EDT SATURDAY...

ESSENTIALLY THE SAME WEATHER FACTORS TO DEAL WITH AGAIN TODAY AS
IMPULSES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER TROF
OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A SURFACE FRONT WAVERING AROUND THROUGH THE
AREA. TODAYS ITERATION WILL SEE A SURFACE LOW PULLING OFF THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST WHICH SWINGS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK THROUGH THE
REGION AS A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDER TO THE REGION...BUT THE CONTINUED LACK OF
INSTABILITY INDICATES NO SEVERE FOR TODAY. SOME AREAS OF THE MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE REGION INTO THE GRAYSON HIGHLANDS RECEIVED 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES OF
RAIN YESTERDAY SO THEY ARE VULNERABLE TO HYDRO CONCERNS. HOWEVER...DO
NOT EXPECT COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION TO BE WIDESPREAD AWAY FROM THE
FRONT...AND THE FRONT SHOULD HAVE A BIT OF A PUSH TO IT TO KEEP THE
PRECIPITATION MOVING. THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY TO GENERATE
DEEP CONVECTION AND THE FACT THAT THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL
GET HUNG UP OVER OUR AREA SHOULD HELP LIMIT QPF AMOUNTS TODAY AND
MITIGATE ANY LARGE SCALE FLOOD THREAT SO DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE A FLOOD
WATCH WITH THIS PACKAGE. AS ALWAYS THIS SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY. THE FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MIDNIGHT WITH JUST SOME
LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE OVERNIGHT.

AFTER A CHILLY AND DAMP FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER AS WINDS BECOME WESTERLY AND WE GET SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY FROM THE LOW/MID 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
TO LOW/MID 70S WEST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 60S EAST TO LOWER 60S WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT SATURDAY...

MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
AND ITS SUBSEQUENT NORTHWARD DRIFT INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK. TAIL END OF LONG STANDING EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL BECOME
CUTOFF ACROSS NORTHERN GA/AL/EASTERN TN FROM THE PARENT UPPER
TROUGH...WHICH WILL SHEAR OUT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS A SHORT WAVE
RIDGE DRIFTS INTO THE OH VALLEY. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN DRIFT
SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO MON...FINALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION BY
TUESDAY AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH FROM GA IT TAKES ON A NEGATIVE
TILT...WHICH WILL FURTHER ENHANCE OVERALL WEAK DYNAMICS/LIFT AND
CERTAINLY PROLONG THE WET WEATHER PATTERN. ABUNDANT DEEP MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH PWATS IN THE 1.75 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. EXTENSIVE TO NEAR SOLID CLOUD COVER WILL
LIMIT HEATING...SO INSTABILITIES REMAIN MEAGER AND OVERALL
DYNAMICS ARE WEAK. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A LARGE SWATH
OF DEEP MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW...TRACKING FROM
GA/SC NORTHWARD INTO THE RNK CWA BY SUN AFTERNOON...DRIFTING INTO
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA MON...THEN FINALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST
OF THE CWA BY TUE. THIS WILL REQUIRE CONTINUATION OF LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS SAT-MON ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH A LIMITED
DIURNAL SWING GIVEN THE UPPER LOW ESSENTIALLY DRIFTING RIGHT
ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CWA.

THE PATH OF THE UPPER LOW SHOULD FOCUS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
WITH 3HR FFG VALUES AVERAGING IN THE 1.5 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA AND THE RECENT PROLONGED WET SPELL...WE WILL NEED
TO WATCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS CAREFULLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF ANY ORGANIZED OR STRONG CONVECTION...GIVEN
THE MEAGER LAPSE RATES AND LACK OF INSTABILITY/DYNAMICS...SHOULD
HOLD HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN CHECK. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING IN THE HWO...BUT NO FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA TUE...WE SHOULD SEE
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TO FINALLY REDUCE POPS TO JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE CATEGORY. DIURNAL CONVECTION BECOMES A BETTER BET
BY TUE AFTERNOON WITH EXPECTED GREATER INSOLATION THAN WE HAVE
SEEN IN QUITE SOME TIME. A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING
THE WESTERN AREAS BY LATE DAY...WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND LINEAR ORIENTED CONVECTION COULD
BE APPROACHING THE WV/SW VA COUNTIES BY EVENING.

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BE MINIMAL WITH LIMITED THUNDER.
SPC CURRENTLY JUST HAS GENERAL THUNDER THROUGH THE PERIOD AT THIS
TIME.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MON...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES TUESDAY WITH GREATER
INSOLATION. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGH PWATS/DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT SATURDAY...

WET WEATHER DESTINED TO CONTINUE. AFTER A VERY BRIEF RESPITE FROM
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TUESDAY...A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DRIFT
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST BY WED AND THEN BECOME ELONGATED
WEST-EAST ACROSS THE CWA AND STALL. WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO
OUR SOUTH AND WESTERLIES TO OUR NORTH...WE ARE DESTINED ONCE
AGAIN TO BE STUCK IN AN ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH NUMEROUS
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TRACKING FROM THE WESTERN U.S. TO THE EASTERN
U.S. SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR
INEVITABLE...WITH ONE WED AND ANOTHER ONE ON THU. UPPER FLOW
ATTEMPTS TO TRANSITION BACK TO NORTHWEST FLOW TOWARD THE WEEKEND
AS UPPER RIDING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS COULD
REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED CONVECTION/RAINFALL...BUT WILL
NONETHELESS KEEP US IN AN ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN.
THERE WOULD APPEAR TO BE A CONTINUED THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF ANTECEDENT VERY MOIST
CONDITIONS...AND AT LEAST A MINIMAL THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD.

WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE LEVELS CONTINUING...EXPECT
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT SATURDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN POOR FLYING CONDITIONS IN CONVECTION AND LOW CLOUDS.
SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW TO THE WEST OF THE REGION WILL SPLIT...WITH
PARENT TROUGH SHEARING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY...WHILE A
WEAK CUTOFF DEVELOPS ALONG THE TAIL OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT NORTH INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

SCT TO BKN MVFR CLOUDS WILL LOWER TO IFR CONDITION IN CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. BAND OF SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT IS DIMINISHING AS TRAVELING SOUTH. HOWEVER...SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS FORMING IN THE UNSTABLE AIR. CAPES AND LIS WERE MOST
UNSTABLE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
THE TAF SITE WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM IS DAN. A
SHOWER MAY CLIP ANY OF THE TAF LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT.

OVERNIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES...BUT ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
WILL NOT DRIFT BACK INTO THE CWA UNTIL AFT 12 SUN.
HOWEVER...EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS/CIGS AND FOG TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD IFR- LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS.

SUTHWEST WINDS AT 5-7KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOMING LIGHT TO
CALM OVERNIGHT...HELPING TO PROMOTE WIDESPREAD FOG/LOW CLOUDS WITH
VERY MOIST GROUND IN PLACE.

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AT 5-10KTS SUNDAY.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS
DURING THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDOWS
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR VFR CONDITIONS INCREASE TUE. UPPER LOW/TROUGH
WILL LINGER WEST OF THE VA/NC COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN BEGIN TO DRIFT INTO NORTHERN VA
MON. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE OH VALLEY BY
WED. THIS LEAVES A VERY UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH
IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR-
VFR OUTSIDE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOONS. AT THIS
POINT...TUESDAY APPEARS TO OFFER THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/MBS
NEAR TERM...AMS/MBS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...KK/RAB
AVIATION...KK/MBS/RAB



000
FXUS61 KRNK 041746
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
146 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING US ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. THEN...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...KEEPING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK...AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM EDT SATURDAY...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES AND POPS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

AS OF 925 AM EDT SATURDAY...

ADJUSTED POPS WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDS THIS MORNING...THEN
MODIFIED TOWARDS HRRR AND HIRESW-ARW FOR LATE MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. MODIFIED TEMPERATURES WITH LATEST OBS AND COOL LATE
MORNING READINGS TOWARDS LAV. WITH WEST WINDS CREATING SOME
SUNSHINE...TWEAKED CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
MORE CHANGES AS DAY PROGRESSES. HAPPY 4TH OF JULY!


AS OF 430 AM EDT SATURDAY...

ESSENTIALLY THE SAME WEATHER FACTORS TO DEAL WITH AGAIN TODAY AS
IMPULSES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER TROF
OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A SURFACE FRONT WAVERING AROUND THROUGH THE
AREA. TODAYS ITERATION WILL SEE A SURFACE LOW PULLING OFF THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST WHICH SWINGS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK THROUGH THE
REGION AS A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDER TO THE REGION...BUT THE CONTINUED LACK OF
INSTABILITY INDICATES NO SEVERE FOR TODAY. SOME AREAS OF THE MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE REGION INTO THE GRAYSON HIGHLANDS RECEIVED 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES OF
RAIN YESTERDAY SO THEY ARE VULNERABLE TO HYDRO CONCERNS. HOWEVER...DO
NOT EXPECT COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION TO BE WIDESPREAD AWAY FROM THE
FRONT...AND THE FRONT SHOULD HAVE A BIT OF A PUSH TO IT TO KEEP THE
PRECIPITATION MOVING. THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY TO GENERATE
DEEP CONVECTION AND THE FACT THAT THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL
GET HUNG UP OVER OUR AREA SHOULD HELP LIMIT QPF AMOUNTS TODAY AND
MITIGATE ANY LARGE SCALE FLOOD THREAT SO DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE A FLOOD
WATCH WITH THIS PACKAGE. AS ALWAYS THIS SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY. THE FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MIDNIGHT WITH JUST SOME
LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE OVERNIGHT.

AFTER A CHILLY AND DAMP FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER AS WINDS BECOME WESTERLY AND WE GET SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY FROM THE LOW/MID 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
TO LOW/MID 70S WEST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 60S EAST TO LOWER 60S WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT SATURDAY...

MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
AND ITS SUBSEQUENT NORTHWARD DRIFT INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK. TAIL END OF LONG STANDING EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL BECOME
CUTOFF ACROSS NORTHERN GA/AL/EASTERN TN FROM THE PARENT UPPER
TROUGH...WHICH WILL SHEAR OUT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS A SHORT WAVE
RIDGE DRIFTS INTO THE OH VALLEY. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN DRIFT
SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO MON...FINALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION BY
TUESDAY AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH FROM GA IT TAKES ON A NEGATIVE
TILT...WHICH WILL FURTHER ENHANCE OVERALL WEAK DYNAMICS/LIFT AND
CERTAINLY PROLONG THE WET WEATHER PATTERN. ABUNDANT DEEP MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH PWATS IN THE 1.75 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. EXTENSIVE TO NEAR SOLID CLOUD COVER WILL
LIMIT HEATING...SO INSTABILITIES REMAIN MEAGER AND OVERALL
DYNAMICS ARE WEAK. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A LARGE SWATH
OF DEEP MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW...TRACKING FROM
GA/SC NORTHWARD INTO THE RNK CWA BY SUN AFTERNOON...DRIFTING INTO
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA MON...THEN FINALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST
OF THE CWA BY TUE. THIS WILL REQUIRE CONTINUATION OF LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS SAT-MON ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH A LIMITED
DIURNAL SWING GIVEN THE UPPER LOW ESSENTIALLY DRIFTING RIGHT
ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CWA.

THE PATH OF THE UPPER LOW SHOULD FOCUS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
WITH 3HR FFG VALUES AVERAGING IN THE 1.5 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA AND THE RECENT PROLONGED WET SPELL...WE WILL NEED
TO WATCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS CAREFULLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF ANY ORGANIZED OR STRONG CONVECTION...GIVEN
THE MEAGER LAPSE RATES AND LACK OF INSTABILITY/DYNAMICS...SHOULD
HOLD HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN CHECK. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING IN THE HWO...BUT NO FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA TUE...WE SHOULD SEE
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TO FINALLY REDUCE POPS TO JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE CATEGORY. DIURNAL CONVECTION BECOMES A BETTER BET
BY TUE AFTERNOON WITH EXPECTED GREATER INSOLATION THAN WE HAVE
SEEN IN QUITE SOME TIME. A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING
THE WESTERN AREAS BY LATE DAY...WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND LINEAR ORIENTED CONVECTION COULD
BE APPROACHING THE WV/SW VA COUNTIES BY EVENING.

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BE MINIMAL WITH LIMITED THUNDER.
SPC CURRENTLY JUST HAS GENERAL THUNDER THROUGH THE PERIOD AT THIS
TIME.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MON...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES TUESDAY WITH GREATER
INSOLATION. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGH PWATS/DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT SATURDAY...

WET WEATHER DESTINED TO CONTINUE. AFTER A VERY BRIEF RESPITE FROM
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TUESDAY...A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DRIFT
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST BY WED AND THEN BECOME ELONGATED
WEST-EAST ACROSS THE CWA AND STALL. WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO
OUR SOUTH AND WESTERLIES TO OUR NORTH...WE ARE DESTINED ONCE
AGAIN TO BE STUCK IN AN ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH NUMEROUS
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TRACKING FROM THE WESTERN U.S. TO THE EASTERN
U.S. SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR
INEVITABLE...WITH ONE WED AND ANOTHER ONE ON THU. UPPER FLOW
ATTEMPTS TO TRANSITION BACK TO NORTHWEST FLOW TOWARD THE WEEKEND
AS UPPER RIDING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS COULD
REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED CONVECTION/RAINFALL...BUT WILL
NONETHELESS KEEP US IN AN ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN.
THERE WOULD APPEAR TO BE A CONTINUED THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF ANTECEDENT VERY MOIST
CONDITIONS...AND AT LEAST A MINIMAL THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD.

WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE LEVELS CONTINUING...EXPECT
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT SATURDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN POOR FLYING CONDITIONS IN CONVECTION AND LOW CLOUDS.
SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW TO THE WEST OF THE REGION WILL SPLIT...WITH
PARENT TROUGH SHEARING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY...WHILE A
WEAK CUTOFF DEVELOPS ALONG THE TAIL OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT NORTH INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

SCT TO BKN MVFR CLOUDS WILL LOWER TO IFR CONDITION IN CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. BAND OF SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT IS DIMINISHING AS TRAVELING SOUTH. HOWEVER...SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS FORMING IN THE UNSTABLE AIR. CAPES AND LIS WERE MOST
UNSTABLE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
THE TAF SITE WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM IS DAN. A
SHOWER MAY CLIP ANY OF THE TAF LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT.

OVERNIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES...BUT ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
WILL NOT DRIFT BACK INTO THE CWA UNTIL AFT 12 SUN.
HOWEVER...EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS/CIGS AND FOG TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD IFR- LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS.

SUTHWEST WINDS AT 5-7KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOMING LIGHT TO
CALM OVERNIGHT...HELPING TO PROMOTE WIDESPREAD FOG/LOW CLOUDS WITH
VERY MOIST GROUND IN PLACE.

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AT 5-10KTS SUNDAY.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS
DURING THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDOWS
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR VFR CONDITIONS INCREASE TUE. UPPER LOW/TROUGH
WILL LINGER WEST OF THE VA/NC COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN BEGIN TO DRIFT INTO NORTHERN VA
MON. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE OH VALLEY BY
WED. THIS LEAVES A VERY UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH
IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR-
VFR OUTSIDE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOONS. AT THIS
POINT...TUESDAY APPEARS TO OFFER THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/MBS
NEAR TERM...AMS/MBS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...KK/RAB
AVIATION...KK/MBS/RAB



000
FXUS61 KRNK 041746
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
146 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING US ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. THEN...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...KEEPING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK...AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM EDT SATURDAY...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES AND POPS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

AS OF 925 AM EDT SATURDAY...

ADJUSTED POPS WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDS THIS MORNING...THEN
MODIFIED TOWARDS HRRR AND HIRESW-ARW FOR LATE MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. MODIFIED TEMPERATURES WITH LATEST OBS AND COOL LATE
MORNING READINGS TOWARDS LAV. WITH WEST WINDS CREATING SOME
SUNSHINE...TWEAKED CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
MORE CHANGES AS DAY PROGRESSES. HAPPY 4TH OF JULY!


AS OF 430 AM EDT SATURDAY...

ESSENTIALLY THE SAME WEATHER FACTORS TO DEAL WITH AGAIN TODAY AS
IMPULSES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER TROF
OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A SURFACE FRONT WAVERING AROUND THROUGH THE
AREA. TODAYS ITERATION WILL SEE A SURFACE LOW PULLING OFF THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST WHICH SWINGS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK THROUGH THE
REGION AS A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDER TO THE REGION...BUT THE CONTINUED LACK OF
INSTABILITY INDICATES NO SEVERE FOR TODAY. SOME AREAS OF THE MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE REGION INTO THE GRAYSON HIGHLANDS RECEIVED 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES OF
RAIN YESTERDAY SO THEY ARE VULNERABLE TO HYDRO CONCERNS. HOWEVER...DO
NOT EXPECT COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION TO BE WIDESPREAD AWAY FROM THE
FRONT...AND THE FRONT SHOULD HAVE A BIT OF A PUSH TO IT TO KEEP THE
PRECIPITATION MOVING. THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY TO GENERATE
DEEP CONVECTION AND THE FACT THAT THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL
GET HUNG UP OVER OUR AREA SHOULD HELP LIMIT QPF AMOUNTS TODAY AND
MITIGATE ANY LARGE SCALE FLOOD THREAT SO DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE A FLOOD
WATCH WITH THIS PACKAGE. AS ALWAYS THIS SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY. THE FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MIDNIGHT WITH JUST SOME
LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE OVERNIGHT.

AFTER A CHILLY AND DAMP FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER AS WINDS BECOME WESTERLY AND WE GET SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY FROM THE LOW/MID 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
TO LOW/MID 70S WEST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 60S EAST TO LOWER 60S WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT SATURDAY...

MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
AND ITS SUBSEQUENT NORTHWARD DRIFT INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK. TAIL END OF LONG STANDING EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL BECOME
CUTOFF ACROSS NORTHERN GA/AL/EASTERN TN FROM THE PARENT UPPER
TROUGH...WHICH WILL SHEAR OUT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS A SHORT WAVE
RIDGE DRIFTS INTO THE OH VALLEY. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN DRIFT
SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO MON...FINALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION BY
TUESDAY AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH FROM GA IT TAKES ON A NEGATIVE
TILT...WHICH WILL FURTHER ENHANCE OVERALL WEAK DYNAMICS/LIFT AND
CERTAINLY PROLONG THE WET WEATHER PATTERN. ABUNDANT DEEP MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH PWATS IN THE 1.75 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. EXTENSIVE TO NEAR SOLID CLOUD COVER WILL
LIMIT HEATING...SO INSTABILITIES REMAIN MEAGER AND OVERALL
DYNAMICS ARE WEAK. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A LARGE SWATH
OF DEEP MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW...TRACKING FROM
GA/SC NORTHWARD INTO THE RNK CWA BY SUN AFTERNOON...DRIFTING INTO
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA MON...THEN FINALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST
OF THE CWA BY TUE. THIS WILL REQUIRE CONTINUATION OF LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS SAT-MON ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH A LIMITED
DIURNAL SWING GIVEN THE UPPER LOW ESSENTIALLY DRIFTING RIGHT
ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CWA.

THE PATH OF THE UPPER LOW SHOULD FOCUS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
WITH 3HR FFG VALUES AVERAGING IN THE 1.5 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA AND THE RECENT PROLONGED WET SPELL...WE WILL NEED
TO WATCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS CAREFULLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF ANY ORGANIZED OR STRONG CONVECTION...GIVEN
THE MEAGER LAPSE RATES AND LACK OF INSTABILITY/DYNAMICS...SHOULD
HOLD HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN CHECK. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING IN THE HWO...BUT NO FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA TUE...WE SHOULD SEE
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TO FINALLY REDUCE POPS TO JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE CATEGORY. DIURNAL CONVECTION BECOMES A BETTER BET
BY TUE AFTERNOON WITH EXPECTED GREATER INSOLATION THAN WE HAVE
SEEN IN QUITE SOME TIME. A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING
THE WESTERN AREAS BY LATE DAY...WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND LINEAR ORIENTED CONVECTION COULD
BE APPROACHING THE WV/SW VA COUNTIES BY EVENING.

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BE MINIMAL WITH LIMITED THUNDER.
SPC CURRENTLY JUST HAS GENERAL THUNDER THROUGH THE PERIOD AT THIS
TIME.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MON...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES TUESDAY WITH GREATER
INSOLATION. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGH PWATS/DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT SATURDAY...

WET WEATHER DESTINED TO CONTINUE. AFTER A VERY BRIEF RESPITE FROM
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TUESDAY...A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DRIFT
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST BY WED AND THEN BECOME ELONGATED
WEST-EAST ACROSS THE CWA AND STALL. WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO
OUR SOUTH AND WESTERLIES TO OUR NORTH...WE ARE DESTINED ONCE
AGAIN TO BE STUCK IN AN ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH NUMEROUS
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TRACKING FROM THE WESTERN U.S. TO THE EASTERN
U.S. SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR
INEVITABLE...WITH ONE WED AND ANOTHER ONE ON THU. UPPER FLOW
ATTEMPTS TO TRANSITION BACK TO NORTHWEST FLOW TOWARD THE WEEKEND
AS UPPER RIDING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS COULD
REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED CONVECTION/RAINFALL...BUT WILL
NONETHELESS KEEP US IN AN ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN.
THERE WOULD APPEAR TO BE A CONTINUED THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF ANTECEDENT VERY MOIST
CONDITIONS...AND AT LEAST A MINIMAL THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD.

WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE LEVELS CONTINUING...EXPECT
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT SATURDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN POOR FLYING CONDITIONS IN CONVECTION AND LOW CLOUDS.
SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW TO THE WEST OF THE REGION WILL SPLIT...WITH
PARENT TROUGH SHEARING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY...WHILE A
WEAK CUTOFF DEVELOPS ALONG THE TAIL OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT NORTH INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

SCT TO BKN MVFR CLOUDS WILL LOWER TO IFR CONDITION IN CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. BAND OF SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT IS DIMINISHING AS TRAVELING SOUTH. HOWEVER...SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS FORMING IN THE UNSTABLE AIR. CAPES AND LIS WERE MOST
UNSTABLE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
THE TAF SITE WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM IS DAN. A
SHOWER MAY CLIP ANY OF THE TAF LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT.

OVERNIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES...BUT ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
WILL NOT DRIFT BACK INTO THE CWA UNTIL AFT 12 SUN.
HOWEVER...EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS/CIGS AND FOG TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD IFR- LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS.

SUTHWEST WINDS AT 5-7KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOMING LIGHT TO
CALM OVERNIGHT...HELPING TO PROMOTE WIDESPREAD FOG/LOW CLOUDS WITH
VERY MOIST GROUND IN PLACE.

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AT 5-10KTS SUNDAY.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS
DURING THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDOWS
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR VFR CONDITIONS INCREASE TUE. UPPER LOW/TROUGH
WILL LINGER WEST OF THE VA/NC COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN BEGIN TO DRIFT INTO NORTHERN VA
MON. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE OH VALLEY BY
WED. THIS LEAVES A VERY UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH
IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR-
VFR OUTSIDE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOONS. AT THIS
POINT...TUESDAY APPEARS TO OFFER THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/MBS
NEAR TERM...AMS/MBS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...KK/RAB
AVIATION...KK/MBS/RAB



000
FXUS61 KRNK 041746
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
146 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING US ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. THEN...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...KEEPING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK...AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM EDT SATURDAY...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES AND POPS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

AS OF 925 AM EDT SATURDAY...

ADJUSTED POPS WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDS THIS MORNING...THEN
MODIFIED TOWARDS HRRR AND HIRESW-ARW FOR LATE MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. MODIFIED TEMPERATURES WITH LATEST OBS AND COOL LATE
MORNING READINGS TOWARDS LAV. WITH WEST WINDS CREATING SOME
SUNSHINE...TWEAKED CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
MORE CHANGES AS DAY PROGRESSES. HAPPY 4TH OF JULY!


AS OF 430 AM EDT SATURDAY...

ESSENTIALLY THE SAME WEATHER FACTORS TO DEAL WITH AGAIN TODAY AS
IMPULSES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER TROF
OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A SURFACE FRONT WAVERING AROUND THROUGH THE
AREA. TODAYS ITERATION WILL SEE A SURFACE LOW PULLING OFF THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST WHICH SWINGS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK THROUGH THE
REGION AS A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDER TO THE REGION...BUT THE CONTINUED LACK OF
INSTABILITY INDICATES NO SEVERE FOR TODAY. SOME AREAS OF THE MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE REGION INTO THE GRAYSON HIGHLANDS RECEIVED 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES OF
RAIN YESTERDAY SO THEY ARE VULNERABLE TO HYDRO CONCERNS. HOWEVER...DO
NOT EXPECT COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION TO BE WIDESPREAD AWAY FROM THE
FRONT...AND THE FRONT SHOULD HAVE A BIT OF A PUSH TO IT TO KEEP THE
PRECIPITATION MOVING. THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY TO GENERATE
DEEP CONVECTION AND THE FACT THAT THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL
GET HUNG UP OVER OUR AREA SHOULD HELP LIMIT QPF AMOUNTS TODAY AND
MITIGATE ANY LARGE SCALE FLOOD THREAT SO DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE A FLOOD
WATCH WITH THIS PACKAGE. AS ALWAYS THIS SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY. THE FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MIDNIGHT WITH JUST SOME
LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE OVERNIGHT.

AFTER A CHILLY AND DAMP FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER AS WINDS BECOME WESTERLY AND WE GET SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY FROM THE LOW/MID 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
TO LOW/MID 70S WEST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 60S EAST TO LOWER 60S WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT SATURDAY...

MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
AND ITS SUBSEQUENT NORTHWARD DRIFT INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK. TAIL END OF LONG STANDING EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL BECOME
CUTOFF ACROSS NORTHERN GA/AL/EASTERN TN FROM THE PARENT UPPER
TROUGH...WHICH WILL SHEAR OUT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS A SHORT WAVE
RIDGE DRIFTS INTO THE OH VALLEY. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN DRIFT
SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO MON...FINALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION BY
TUESDAY AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH FROM GA IT TAKES ON A NEGATIVE
TILT...WHICH WILL FURTHER ENHANCE OVERALL WEAK DYNAMICS/LIFT AND
CERTAINLY PROLONG THE WET WEATHER PATTERN. ABUNDANT DEEP MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH PWATS IN THE 1.75 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. EXTENSIVE TO NEAR SOLID CLOUD COVER WILL
LIMIT HEATING...SO INSTABILITIES REMAIN MEAGER AND OVERALL
DYNAMICS ARE WEAK. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A LARGE SWATH
OF DEEP MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW...TRACKING FROM
GA/SC NORTHWARD INTO THE RNK CWA BY SUN AFTERNOON...DRIFTING INTO
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA MON...THEN FINALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST
OF THE CWA BY TUE. THIS WILL REQUIRE CONTINUATION OF LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS SAT-MON ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH A LIMITED
DIURNAL SWING GIVEN THE UPPER LOW ESSENTIALLY DRIFTING RIGHT
ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CWA.

THE PATH OF THE UPPER LOW SHOULD FOCUS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
WITH 3HR FFG VALUES AVERAGING IN THE 1.5 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA AND THE RECENT PROLONGED WET SPELL...WE WILL NEED
TO WATCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS CAREFULLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF ANY ORGANIZED OR STRONG CONVECTION...GIVEN
THE MEAGER LAPSE RATES AND LACK OF INSTABILITY/DYNAMICS...SHOULD
HOLD HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN CHECK. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING IN THE HWO...BUT NO FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA TUE...WE SHOULD SEE
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TO FINALLY REDUCE POPS TO JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE CATEGORY. DIURNAL CONVECTION BECOMES A BETTER BET
BY TUE AFTERNOON WITH EXPECTED GREATER INSOLATION THAN WE HAVE
SEEN IN QUITE SOME TIME. A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING
THE WESTERN AREAS BY LATE DAY...WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND LINEAR ORIENTED CONVECTION COULD
BE APPROACHING THE WV/SW VA COUNTIES BY EVENING.

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BE MINIMAL WITH LIMITED THUNDER.
SPC CURRENTLY JUST HAS GENERAL THUNDER THROUGH THE PERIOD AT THIS
TIME.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MON...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES TUESDAY WITH GREATER
INSOLATION. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGH PWATS/DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT SATURDAY...

WET WEATHER DESTINED TO CONTINUE. AFTER A VERY BRIEF RESPITE FROM
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TUESDAY...A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DRIFT
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST BY WED AND THEN BECOME ELONGATED
WEST-EAST ACROSS THE CWA AND STALL. WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO
OUR SOUTH AND WESTERLIES TO OUR NORTH...WE ARE DESTINED ONCE
AGAIN TO BE STUCK IN AN ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH NUMEROUS
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TRACKING FROM THE WESTERN U.S. TO THE EASTERN
U.S. SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR
INEVITABLE...WITH ONE WED AND ANOTHER ONE ON THU. UPPER FLOW
ATTEMPTS TO TRANSITION BACK TO NORTHWEST FLOW TOWARD THE WEEKEND
AS UPPER RIDING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS COULD
REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED CONVECTION/RAINFALL...BUT WILL
NONETHELESS KEEP US IN AN ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN.
THERE WOULD APPEAR TO BE A CONTINUED THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF ANTECEDENT VERY MOIST
CONDITIONS...AND AT LEAST A MINIMAL THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD.

WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE LEVELS CONTINUING...EXPECT
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT SATURDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN POOR FLYING CONDITIONS IN CONVECTION AND LOW CLOUDS.
SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW TO THE WEST OF THE REGION WILL SPLIT...WITH
PARENT TROUGH SHEARING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY...WHILE A
WEAK CUTOFF DEVELOPS ALONG THE TAIL OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT NORTH INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

SCT TO BKN MVFR CLOUDS WILL LOWER TO IFR CONDITION IN CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. BAND OF SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT IS DIMINISHING AS TRAVELING SOUTH. HOWEVER...SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS FORMING IN THE UNSTABLE AIR. CAPES AND LIS WERE MOST
UNSTABLE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
THE TAF SITE WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM IS DAN. A
SHOWER MAY CLIP ANY OF THE TAF LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT.

OVERNIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES...BUT ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
WILL NOT DRIFT BACK INTO THE CWA UNTIL AFT 12 SUN.
HOWEVER...EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS/CIGS AND FOG TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD IFR- LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS.

SUTHWEST WINDS AT 5-7KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOMING LIGHT TO
CALM OVERNIGHT...HELPING TO PROMOTE WIDESPREAD FOG/LOW CLOUDS WITH
VERY MOIST GROUND IN PLACE.

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AT 5-10KTS SUNDAY.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS
DURING THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDOWS
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR VFR CONDITIONS INCREASE TUE. UPPER LOW/TROUGH
WILL LINGER WEST OF THE VA/NC COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN BEGIN TO DRIFT INTO NORTHERN VA
MON. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE OH VALLEY BY
WED. THIS LEAVES A VERY UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH
IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR-
VFR OUTSIDE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOONS. AT THIS
POINT...TUESDAY APPEARS TO OFFER THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/MBS
NEAR TERM...AMS/MBS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...KK/RAB
AVIATION...KK/MBS/RAB



000
FXUS61 KRNK 041746
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
146 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING US ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. THEN...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...KEEPING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK...AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM EDT SATURDAY...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES AND POPS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

AS OF 925 AM EDT SATURDAY...

ADJUSTED POPS WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDS THIS MORNING...THEN
MODIFIED TOWARDS HRRR AND HIRESW-ARW FOR LATE MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. MODIFIED TEMPERATURES WITH LATEST OBS AND COOL LATE
MORNING READINGS TOWARDS LAV. WITH WEST WINDS CREATING SOME
SUNSHINE...TWEAKED CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
MORE CHANGES AS DAY PROGRESSES. HAPPY 4TH OF JULY!


AS OF 430 AM EDT SATURDAY...

ESSENTIALLY THE SAME WEATHER FACTORS TO DEAL WITH AGAIN TODAY AS
IMPULSES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER TROF
OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A SURFACE FRONT WAVERING AROUND THROUGH THE
AREA. TODAYS ITERATION WILL SEE A SURFACE LOW PULLING OFF THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST WHICH SWINGS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK THROUGH THE
REGION AS A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDER TO THE REGION...BUT THE CONTINUED LACK OF
INSTABILITY INDICATES NO SEVERE FOR TODAY. SOME AREAS OF THE MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE REGION INTO THE GRAYSON HIGHLANDS RECEIVED 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES OF
RAIN YESTERDAY SO THEY ARE VULNERABLE TO HYDRO CONCERNS. HOWEVER...DO
NOT EXPECT COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION TO BE WIDESPREAD AWAY FROM THE
FRONT...AND THE FRONT SHOULD HAVE A BIT OF A PUSH TO IT TO KEEP THE
PRECIPITATION MOVING. THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY TO GENERATE
DEEP CONVECTION AND THE FACT THAT THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL
GET HUNG UP OVER OUR AREA SHOULD HELP LIMIT QPF AMOUNTS TODAY AND
MITIGATE ANY LARGE SCALE FLOOD THREAT SO DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE A FLOOD
WATCH WITH THIS PACKAGE. AS ALWAYS THIS SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY. THE FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MIDNIGHT WITH JUST SOME
LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE OVERNIGHT.

AFTER A CHILLY AND DAMP FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER AS WINDS BECOME WESTERLY AND WE GET SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY FROM THE LOW/MID 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
TO LOW/MID 70S WEST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 60S EAST TO LOWER 60S WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT SATURDAY...

MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
AND ITS SUBSEQUENT NORTHWARD DRIFT INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK. TAIL END OF LONG STANDING EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL BECOME
CUTOFF ACROSS NORTHERN GA/AL/EASTERN TN FROM THE PARENT UPPER
TROUGH...WHICH WILL SHEAR OUT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS A SHORT WAVE
RIDGE DRIFTS INTO THE OH VALLEY. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN DRIFT
SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO MON...FINALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION BY
TUESDAY AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH FROM GA IT TAKES ON A NEGATIVE
TILT...WHICH WILL FURTHER ENHANCE OVERALL WEAK DYNAMICS/LIFT AND
CERTAINLY PROLONG THE WET WEATHER PATTERN. ABUNDANT DEEP MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH PWATS IN THE 1.75 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. EXTENSIVE TO NEAR SOLID CLOUD COVER WILL
LIMIT HEATING...SO INSTABILITIES REMAIN MEAGER AND OVERALL
DYNAMICS ARE WEAK. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A LARGE SWATH
OF DEEP MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW...TRACKING FROM
GA/SC NORTHWARD INTO THE RNK CWA BY SUN AFTERNOON...DRIFTING INTO
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA MON...THEN FINALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST
OF THE CWA BY TUE. THIS WILL REQUIRE CONTINUATION OF LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS SAT-MON ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH A LIMITED
DIURNAL SWING GIVEN THE UPPER LOW ESSENTIALLY DRIFTING RIGHT
ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CWA.

THE PATH OF THE UPPER LOW SHOULD FOCUS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
WITH 3HR FFG VALUES AVERAGING IN THE 1.5 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA AND THE RECENT PROLONGED WET SPELL...WE WILL NEED
TO WATCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS CAREFULLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF ANY ORGANIZED OR STRONG CONVECTION...GIVEN
THE MEAGER LAPSE RATES AND LACK OF INSTABILITY/DYNAMICS...SHOULD
HOLD HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN CHECK. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING IN THE HWO...BUT NO FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA TUE...WE SHOULD SEE
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TO FINALLY REDUCE POPS TO JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE CATEGORY. DIURNAL CONVECTION BECOMES A BETTER BET
BY TUE AFTERNOON WITH EXPECTED GREATER INSOLATION THAN WE HAVE
SEEN IN QUITE SOME TIME. A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING
THE WESTERN AREAS BY LATE DAY...WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND LINEAR ORIENTED CONVECTION COULD
BE APPROACHING THE WV/SW VA COUNTIES BY EVENING.

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BE MINIMAL WITH LIMITED THUNDER.
SPC CURRENTLY JUST HAS GENERAL THUNDER THROUGH THE PERIOD AT THIS
TIME.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MON...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES TUESDAY WITH GREATER
INSOLATION. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGH PWATS/DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT SATURDAY...

WET WEATHER DESTINED TO CONTINUE. AFTER A VERY BRIEF RESPITE FROM
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TUESDAY...A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DRIFT
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST BY WED AND THEN BECOME ELONGATED
WEST-EAST ACROSS THE CWA AND STALL. WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO
OUR SOUTH AND WESTERLIES TO OUR NORTH...WE ARE DESTINED ONCE
AGAIN TO BE STUCK IN AN ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH NUMEROUS
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TRACKING FROM THE WESTERN U.S. TO THE EASTERN
U.S. SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR
INEVITABLE...WITH ONE WED AND ANOTHER ONE ON THU. UPPER FLOW
ATTEMPTS TO TRANSITION BACK TO NORTHWEST FLOW TOWARD THE WEEKEND
AS UPPER RIDING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS COULD
REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED CONVECTION/RAINFALL...BUT WILL
NONETHELESS KEEP US IN AN ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN.
THERE WOULD APPEAR TO BE A CONTINUED THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF ANTECEDENT VERY MOIST
CONDITIONS...AND AT LEAST A MINIMAL THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD.

WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE LEVELS CONTINUING...EXPECT
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT SATURDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN POOR FLYING CONDITIONS IN CONVECTION AND LOW CLOUDS.
SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW TO THE WEST OF THE REGION WILL SPLIT...WITH
PARENT TROUGH SHEARING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY...WHILE A
WEAK CUTOFF DEVELOPS ALONG THE TAIL OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT NORTH INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

SCT TO BKN MVFR CLOUDS WILL LOWER TO IFR CONDITION IN CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. BAND OF SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT IS DIMINISHING AS TRAVELING SOUTH. HOWEVER...SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS FORMING IN THE UNSTABLE AIR. CAPES AND LIS WERE MOST
UNSTABLE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
THE TAF SITE WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM IS DAN. A
SHOWER MAY CLIP ANY OF THE TAF LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT.

OVERNIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES...BUT ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
WILL NOT DRIFT BACK INTO THE CWA UNTIL AFT 12 SUN.
HOWEVER...EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS/CIGS AND FOG TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD IFR- LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS.

SUTHWEST WINDS AT 5-7KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOMING LIGHT TO
CALM OVERNIGHT...HELPING TO PROMOTE WIDESPREAD FOG/LOW CLOUDS WITH
VERY MOIST GROUND IN PLACE.

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AT 5-10KTS SUNDAY.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS
DURING THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDOWS
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR VFR CONDITIONS INCREASE TUE. UPPER LOW/TROUGH
WILL LINGER WEST OF THE VA/NC COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN BEGIN TO DRIFT INTO NORTHERN VA
MON. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE OH VALLEY BY
WED. THIS LEAVES A VERY UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH
IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR-
VFR OUTSIDE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOONS. AT THIS
POINT...TUESDAY APPEARS TO OFFER THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/MBS
NEAR TERM...AMS/MBS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...KK/RAB
AVIATION...KK/MBS/RAB



000
FXUS61 KRNK 041746
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
146 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING US ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. THEN...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...KEEPING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK...AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM EDT SATURDAY...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES AND POPS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

AS OF 925 AM EDT SATURDAY...

ADJUSTED POPS WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDS THIS MORNING...THEN
MODIFIED TOWARDS HRRR AND HIRESW-ARW FOR LATE MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. MODIFIED TEMPERATURES WITH LATEST OBS AND COOL LATE
MORNING READINGS TOWARDS LAV. WITH WEST WINDS CREATING SOME
SUNSHINE...TWEAKED CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
MORE CHANGES AS DAY PROGRESSES. HAPPY 4TH OF JULY!


AS OF 430 AM EDT SATURDAY...

ESSENTIALLY THE SAME WEATHER FACTORS TO DEAL WITH AGAIN TODAY AS
IMPULSES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER TROF
OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A SURFACE FRONT WAVERING AROUND THROUGH THE
AREA. TODAYS ITERATION WILL SEE A SURFACE LOW PULLING OFF THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST WHICH SWINGS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK THROUGH THE
REGION AS A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDER TO THE REGION...BUT THE CONTINUED LACK OF
INSTABILITY INDICATES NO SEVERE FOR TODAY. SOME AREAS OF THE MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE REGION INTO THE GRAYSON HIGHLANDS RECEIVED 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES OF
RAIN YESTERDAY SO THEY ARE VULNERABLE TO HYDRO CONCERNS. HOWEVER...DO
NOT EXPECT COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION TO BE WIDESPREAD AWAY FROM THE
FRONT...AND THE FRONT SHOULD HAVE A BIT OF A PUSH TO IT TO KEEP THE
PRECIPITATION MOVING. THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY TO GENERATE
DEEP CONVECTION AND THE FACT THAT THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL
GET HUNG UP OVER OUR AREA SHOULD HELP LIMIT QPF AMOUNTS TODAY AND
MITIGATE ANY LARGE SCALE FLOOD THREAT SO DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE A FLOOD
WATCH WITH THIS PACKAGE. AS ALWAYS THIS SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY. THE FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MIDNIGHT WITH JUST SOME
LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE OVERNIGHT.

AFTER A CHILLY AND DAMP FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER AS WINDS BECOME WESTERLY AND WE GET SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY FROM THE LOW/MID 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
TO LOW/MID 70S WEST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 60S EAST TO LOWER 60S WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT SATURDAY...

MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
AND ITS SUBSEQUENT NORTHWARD DRIFT INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK. TAIL END OF LONG STANDING EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL BECOME
CUTOFF ACROSS NORTHERN GA/AL/EASTERN TN FROM THE PARENT UPPER
TROUGH...WHICH WILL SHEAR OUT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS A SHORT WAVE
RIDGE DRIFTS INTO THE OH VALLEY. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN DRIFT
SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO MON...FINALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION BY
TUESDAY AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH FROM GA IT TAKES ON A NEGATIVE
TILT...WHICH WILL FURTHER ENHANCE OVERALL WEAK DYNAMICS/LIFT AND
CERTAINLY PROLONG THE WET WEATHER PATTERN. ABUNDANT DEEP MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH PWATS IN THE 1.75 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. EXTENSIVE TO NEAR SOLID CLOUD COVER WILL
LIMIT HEATING...SO INSTABILITIES REMAIN MEAGER AND OVERALL
DYNAMICS ARE WEAK. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A LARGE SWATH
OF DEEP MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW...TRACKING FROM
GA/SC NORTHWARD INTO THE RNK CWA BY SUN AFTERNOON...DRIFTING INTO
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA MON...THEN FINALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST
OF THE CWA BY TUE. THIS WILL REQUIRE CONTINUATION OF LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS SAT-MON ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH A LIMITED
DIURNAL SWING GIVEN THE UPPER LOW ESSENTIALLY DRIFTING RIGHT
ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CWA.

THE PATH OF THE UPPER LOW SHOULD FOCUS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
WITH 3HR FFG VALUES AVERAGING IN THE 1.5 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA AND THE RECENT PROLONGED WET SPELL...WE WILL NEED
TO WATCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS CAREFULLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF ANY ORGANIZED OR STRONG CONVECTION...GIVEN
THE MEAGER LAPSE RATES AND LACK OF INSTABILITY/DYNAMICS...SHOULD
HOLD HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN CHECK. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING IN THE HWO...BUT NO FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA TUE...WE SHOULD SEE
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TO FINALLY REDUCE POPS TO JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE CATEGORY. DIURNAL CONVECTION BECOMES A BETTER BET
BY TUE AFTERNOON WITH EXPECTED GREATER INSOLATION THAN WE HAVE
SEEN IN QUITE SOME TIME. A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING
THE WESTERN AREAS BY LATE DAY...WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND LINEAR ORIENTED CONVECTION COULD
BE APPROACHING THE WV/SW VA COUNTIES BY EVENING.

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BE MINIMAL WITH LIMITED THUNDER.
SPC CURRENTLY JUST HAS GENERAL THUNDER THROUGH THE PERIOD AT THIS
TIME.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MON...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES TUESDAY WITH GREATER
INSOLATION. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGH PWATS/DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT SATURDAY...

WET WEATHER DESTINED TO CONTINUE. AFTER A VERY BRIEF RESPITE FROM
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TUESDAY...A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DRIFT
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST BY WED AND THEN BECOME ELONGATED
WEST-EAST ACROSS THE CWA AND STALL. WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO
OUR SOUTH AND WESTERLIES TO OUR NORTH...WE ARE DESTINED ONCE
AGAIN TO BE STUCK IN AN ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH NUMEROUS
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TRACKING FROM THE WESTERN U.S. TO THE EASTERN
U.S. SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR
INEVITABLE...WITH ONE WED AND ANOTHER ONE ON THU. UPPER FLOW
ATTEMPTS TO TRANSITION BACK TO NORTHWEST FLOW TOWARD THE WEEKEND
AS UPPER RIDING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS COULD
REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED CONVECTION/RAINFALL...BUT WILL
NONETHELESS KEEP US IN AN ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN.
THERE WOULD APPEAR TO BE A CONTINUED THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF ANTECEDENT VERY MOIST
CONDITIONS...AND AT LEAST A MINIMAL THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD.

WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE LEVELS CONTINUING...EXPECT
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT SATURDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN POOR FLYING CONDITIONS IN CONVECTION AND LOW CLOUDS.
SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW TO THE WEST OF THE REGION WILL SPLIT...WITH
PARENT TROUGH SHEARING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY...WHILE A
WEAK CUTOFF DEVELOPS ALONG THE TAIL OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT NORTH INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

SCT TO BKN MVFR CLOUDS WILL LOWER TO IFR CONDITION IN CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. BAND OF SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT IS DIMINISHING AS TRAVELING SOUTH. HOWEVER...SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS FORMING IN THE UNSTABLE AIR. CAPES AND LIS WERE MOST
UNSTABLE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
THE TAF SITE WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM IS DAN. A
SHOWER MAY CLIP ANY OF THE TAF LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT.

OVERNIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES...BUT ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
WILL NOT DRIFT BACK INTO THE CWA UNTIL AFT 12 SUN.
HOWEVER...EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS/CIGS AND FOG TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD IFR- LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS.

SUTHWEST WINDS AT 5-7KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOMING LIGHT TO
CALM OVERNIGHT...HELPING TO PROMOTE WIDESPREAD FOG/LOW CLOUDS WITH
VERY MOIST GROUND IN PLACE.

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AT 5-10KTS SUNDAY.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS
DURING THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDOWS
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR VFR CONDITIONS INCREASE TUE. UPPER LOW/TROUGH
WILL LINGER WEST OF THE VA/NC COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN BEGIN TO DRIFT INTO NORTHERN VA
MON. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE OH VALLEY BY
WED. THIS LEAVES A VERY UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH
IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR-
VFR OUTSIDE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOONS. AT THIS
POINT...TUESDAY APPEARS TO OFFER THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/MBS
NEAR TERM...AMS/MBS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...KK/RAB
AVIATION...KK/MBS/RAB




000
FXUS61 KLWX 041454
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1054 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE AREA
TODAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT INTO NORTH
CAROLINA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD SUNDAY AND
MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO
THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 14Z...ONE WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW JUST EAST OF THE DELMARVA.
THE LOW OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL CONTINUE TO FILL WHILE THE LOW IN
THE ATLANTIC WILL HEAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY.
LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF STRATIFORM RAIN HAS NOW PASSED THE AREA.
HOWEVER...SOME BREAKS ARE SHOWING UP IN THE OVERCAST TO THE WEST
AND THE UPPER TROUGH STILL HAS TO COME THROUGH ALOFT. THIS SHOULD
CREATE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS SHOULD REMAIN GARDEN-VARIETY.
HIGHS WILL BE COOL FOR JULY 4TH...MOSTLY 70S WITH PERHAPS A FEW
PLACES ESPECIALLY SOUTH BREAKING 80.

TONIGHT...PRECIP CLEARS AS DO THE CLOUDS. FOG DEVELOPS IN TYPICAL
PIEDMONT AND VALLEY LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS LOW TO MID 60S...UPR 60S
URBAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE. AFTER PATCHY AM FOG BREAKS...SUNNY WITH A
LIGHT/VARIABLE FLOW AND MAX TEMPS MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE COAST SUN NIGHT MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY BEGIN TO RETURN NWD IN DEEP LAYERED SRLY FLOW WITH
SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT SUN NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MON
NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINS DUE TO HIGH PWATS AOA 2.0 INCHES AND SINCE RAINS WILL
BE NEAR AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION.

DRIER SW FLOW ESTABLISHES OVER THE AREA LATE TUE AND CONTINUES
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. LEE-SIDE TROFS APPEAR THE ONLY
MECHANISM TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...WARMER AND HUMID WITH
THE RISK OF ISOLD-SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EACH DAY.
FRONTS APPEAR TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA NEXT WEEK. SO
CONSIDERABLY WARMER NEXT WEEK THAN IT HAS BEEN RECENTLY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STEADIEST RAIN MOVING OUT AT THIS TIME BUT LOW CLOUDS LINGER.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ESPECTED TO REDEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH BRIEF IFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE. AFTER IMPROVING
AGAIN THIS EVENING...SOME PATCHY FOG WILL AFFECT INLAND SITES
ESPECIALLY CHO AND MRB. BACK TO VFR ALL TERMINALS ON SUNDAY AFTER
FOG BURNS OFF. WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY REMAINING BELOW 10
KNOTS...WITH NORTHEAST FLOW TODAY BECOMING MORE VARIABLE SUNDAY.

IFR CIGS APPEAR LIKELY FOR KCHO LATE SUN NIGHT AND EARLY MON IN
RAIN IMPROVING TO MVFR MON AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS AGAIN MON NIGHT
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA WITH IFR CIGS LIKELY AT
KBWI AND KMTN.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT...MAINLY FOR POTENTIAL OF SOME AFTERNOON
GUSTS AS LOW MOVES EAST AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SFC WINDS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN TUE-TUE NIGHT DUE TO CHANNELING SRLY FLOW. THIS MAY
REQUIRE SCA.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MDZ011-014.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR VAZ054.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ532-540>542.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ535-538.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ533-
     534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/LFR
NEAR TERM...BAJ/RCM
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...BAJ/LFR
AVIATION...BAJ/LFR/RCM
MARINE...BAJ/LFR/RCM



000
FXUS61 KLWX 041454
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1054 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE AREA
TODAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT INTO NORTH
CAROLINA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD SUNDAY AND
MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO
THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 14Z...ONE WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW JUST EAST OF THE DELMARVA.
THE LOW OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL CONTINUE TO FILL WHILE THE LOW IN
THE ATLANTIC WILL HEAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY.
LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF STRATIFORM RAIN HAS NOW PASSED THE AREA.
HOWEVER...SOME BREAKS ARE SHOWING UP IN THE OVERCAST TO THE WEST
AND THE UPPER TROUGH STILL HAS TO COME THROUGH ALOFT. THIS SHOULD
CREATE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS SHOULD REMAIN GARDEN-VARIETY.
HIGHS WILL BE COOL FOR JULY 4TH...MOSTLY 70S WITH PERHAPS A FEW
PLACES ESPECIALLY SOUTH BREAKING 80.

TONIGHT...PRECIP CLEARS AS DO THE CLOUDS. FOG DEVELOPS IN TYPICAL
PIEDMONT AND VALLEY LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS LOW TO MID 60S...UPR 60S
URBAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE. AFTER PATCHY AM FOG BREAKS...SUNNY WITH A
LIGHT/VARIABLE FLOW AND MAX TEMPS MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE COAST SUN NIGHT MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY BEGIN TO RETURN NWD IN DEEP LAYERED SRLY FLOW WITH
SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT SUN NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MON
NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINS DUE TO HIGH PWATS AOA 2.0 INCHES AND SINCE RAINS WILL
BE NEAR AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION.

DRIER SW FLOW ESTABLISHES OVER THE AREA LATE TUE AND CONTINUES
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. LEE-SIDE TROFS APPEAR THE ONLY
MECHANISM TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...WARMER AND HUMID WITH
THE RISK OF ISOLD-SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EACH DAY.
FRONTS APPEAR TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA NEXT WEEK. SO
CONSIDERABLY WARMER NEXT WEEK THAN IT HAS BEEN RECENTLY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STEADIEST RAIN MOVING OUT AT THIS TIME BUT LOW CLOUDS LINGER.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ESPECTED TO REDEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH BRIEF IFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE. AFTER IMPROVING
AGAIN THIS EVENING...SOME PATCHY FOG WILL AFFECT INLAND SITES
ESPECIALLY CHO AND MRB. BACK TO VFR ALL TERMINALS ON SUNDAY AFTER
FOG BURNS OFF. WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY REMAINING BELOW 10
KNOTS...WITH NORTHEAST FLOW TODAY BECOMING MORE VARIABLE SUNDAY.

IFR CIGS APPEAR LIKELY FOR KCHO LATE SUN NIGHT AND EARLY MON IN
RAIN IMPROVING TO MVFR MON AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS AGAIN MON NIGHT
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA WITH IFR CIGS LIKELY AT
KBWI AND KMTN.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT...MAINLY FOR POTENTIAL OF SOME AFTERNOON
GUSTS AS LOW MOVES EAST AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SFC WINDS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN TUE-TUE NIGHT DUE TO CHANNELING SRLY FLOW. THIS MAY
REQUIRE SCA.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MDZ011-014.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR VAZ054.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ532-540>542.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ535-538.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ533-
     534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/LFR
NEAR TERM...BAJ/RCM
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...BAJ/LFR
AVIATION...BAJ/LFR/RCM
MARINE...BAJ/LFR/RCM




000
FXUS61 KLWX 041454
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1054 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE AREA
TODAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT INTO NORTH
CAROLINA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD SUNDAY AND
MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO
THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 14Z...ONE WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW JUST EAST OF THE DELMARVA.
THE LOW OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL CONTINUE TO FILL WHILE THE LOW IN
THE ATLANTIC WILL HEAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY.
LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF STRATIFORM RAIN HAS NOW PASSED THE AREA.
HOWEVER...SOME BREAKS ARE SHOWING UP IN THE OVERCAST TO THE WEST
AND THE UPPER TROUGH STILL HAS TO COME THROUGH ALOFT. THIS SHOULD
CREATE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS SHOULD REMAIN GARDEN-VARIETY.
HIGHS WILL BE COOL FOR JULY 4TH...MOSTLY 70S WITH PERHAPS A FEW
PLACES ESPECIALLY SOUTH BREAKING 80.

TONIGHT...PRECIP CLEARS AS DO THE CLOUDS. FOG DEVELOPS IN TYPICAL
PIEDMONT AND VALLEY LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS LOW TO MID 60S...UPR 60S
URBAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE. AFTER PATCHY AM FOG BREAKS...SUNNY WITH A
LIGHT/VARIABLE FLOW AND MAX TEMPS MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE COAST SUN NIGHT MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY BEGIN TO RETURN NWD IN DEEP LAYERED SRLY FLOW WITH
SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT SUN NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MON
NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINS DUE TO HIGH PWATS AOA 2.0 INCHES AND SINCE RAINS WILL
BE NEAR AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION.

DRIER SW FLOW ESTABLISHES OVER THE AREA LATE TUE AND CONTINUES
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. LEE-SIDE TROFS APPEAR THE ONLY
MECHANISM TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...WARMER AND HUMID WITH
THE RISK OF ISOLD-SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EACH DAY.
FRONTS APPEAR TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA NEXT WEEK. SO
CONSIDERABLY WARMER NEXT WEEK THAN IT HAS BEEN RECENTLY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STEADIEST RAIN MOVING OUT AT THIS TIME BUT LOW CLOUDS LINGER.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ESPECTED TO REDEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH BRIEF IFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE. AFTER IMPROVING
AGAIN THIS EVENING...SOME PATCHY FOG WILL AFFECT INLAND SITES
ESPECIALLY CHO AND MRB. BACK TO VFR ALL TERMINALS ON SUNDAY AFTER
FOG BURNS OFF. WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY REMAINING BELOW 10
KNOTS...WITH NORTHEAST FLOW TODAY BECOMING MORE VARIABLE SUNDAY.

IFR CIGS APPEAR LIKELY FOR KCHO LATE SUN NIGHT AND EARLY MON IN
RAIN IMPROVING TO MVFR MON AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS AGAIN MON NIGHT
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA WITH IFR CIGS LIKELY AT
KBWI AND KMTN.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT...MAINLY FOR POTENTIAL OF SOME AFTERNOON
GUSTS AS LOW MOVES EAST AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SFC WINDS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN TUE-TUE NIGHT DUE TO CHANNELING SRLY FLOW. THIS MAY
REQUIRE SCA.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MDZ011-014.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR VAZ054.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ532-540>542.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ535-538.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ533-
     534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/LFR
NEAR TERM...BAJ/RCM
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...BAJ/LFR
AVIATION...BAJ/LFR/RCM
MARINE...BAJ/LFR/RCM



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 041450
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1050 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MORNING ANALYSIS INDICATES SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF
THE ATLC COAST OF THE ERN SHORE...WITH TRAILING SFC BOUNDARY
ALIGNED W-E OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER AREA
OF SFC LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACRS SW PA WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT OVER WV AND ERN KY. WSW FLOW PREVAILS ALOFT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS STILL ONGOING ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE UPPER BAY AND INTO
ACCOMACK CO VA AND MD ZONES. ELSEWHERE...RADAR GENLY PRECIP-FREE
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS...WITH INCREASING AMTS OF SUNSHINE OVER
FAR SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...HAVE SCALED BACK ON POPS TO GO W/ A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH ABOUT 18-19Z MOST AREAS (EXCEPT WILL MAINTAIN
LOW CHC POPS N/NE CLOSE TO THE FRONT) AS REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN
THE 2 SYSTEMS. AFTER 18-19Z...SFC LOW IN SW PA TRACKS ENE WITH
TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING E OF THE MTNS. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL PUSH ACRS THE REGION AS WELL...AND AREA WILL EVEN BE INTO
SOME RRQ FORCING FROM 250-300 MB UPPER LEVEL JET. WITH SFC
HEATING/INCREASING INSTABILITY...EXPECT POPS TO RAPIDLY RAMP BACK
UP TO HIGH CHC CENTRAL AND SE (40-50%) TO LIKELY (60%) N/NW. WILL
THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT LIKELY POPS INTO ERN/SE VA AFTER 20-21Z.
SPC/RAP MESOANALYSIS SHOWS ~30KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR INTO SRN /SE
VA BY LATE AFTN...SO SOME GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH STORMS (MORE
LIKELY IF ENOUGH SUNSHINE CAN PREVAIL THROUGH MID AFTN).
STILL...THE MAIN CONCERN LATER THIS AFTN/EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO
BE FROM POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL AREAS OF OF MDT/HVY RA (ESPECIALLY OVER
SRN VA/NE NC WHERE SOME OF THESE AREAS RECEIVED 1-3 INCHES/LOCALLY
HIGHER AMTS FRI EVE). DEPENDING ON RADAR TRENDS LATER TODAY...MAY
NEED TO ISSUE A FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WATCH W/ AFTN FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA (MAINLY SRN 1/2). HIGHS TODAY
RANGE FROM UPPER 80S/AROUND 90F FAR S/SE WITH VARIABLY/PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES TO THE UPPER 70S/LWR 80S N WHERE SKIES AVG CLOUDY/MOSTLY
CLOUDY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
FNTL BNDRY STALLS INVOF VA/NC BORDER TNGT...THEN BEGINS TO MOVE
BACK N ONCE AGN LT SUN INTO MON AS LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE FM
THE GULF STATES TO THE CNTRL MTNS. THERE RMN SOME MDL
INCONSISTENCIES IN THIS SCENERIO...LARGELY RELATING TO TIMING AND
WHERE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF TAKES PLACE.

LINGERING SHRAS/TSTMS TNGT FAR SRN VA/NE NC WHILE DRYING OCCURS
OVR NNE PORTIONS OF THE FA (ESP AFT MDNGT). THE FAVORED AREA OF
ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS ON SUN LIKELY TO BE FM SCNTRL VA TO FAR SE
VA/NE NC INVOF STALLED FNTL BNDRY. MOSTLY CLOUDY S...PARTLY CLOUDY
NE TNGT THROUGH SUN. LO TEMPS FM THE M/U60S N TO THE U60S- L70S S.
HI TEMPS SUN MNLY IN THE L/M80S.

00Z/06 NAM FARTHER W W/ AXIS OF SGFNT PCPN SUN NGT INTO MON AS LO
PRES MOVES INTO THE CNTRL MTNS. WILL HAVE POPS GRADUALLY INCRSG
INTO CNTRL/INTERIOR ERN VA INTO MON...WHILE KEEPING POPS LWR AT
MUCH OF THE CST. MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB
CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH MON XPCD TO AVG 1-1.5 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL
VA TO INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF ABT 1/2 INCH OVR THE
LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL
DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR REPEATING
SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY CONTINUED LOW AMPLITUDE
UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH GRADUAL RE-REEMERGENCE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT THAT WITH OCCASIONAL UPPER
DISTURBANCES/PERTURBATIONS PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC,
AS WEAK SFC TROUGH PERSISTS IN PLACE OVERHEAD, MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHC
RANGE BY DAY (NEAR CLIMO NORMS), W/ SLIGHT CHC OR LESS OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST PW VALUES WILL ALSO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD...LINGERING AROUND +2 S.D. ABOVE NORMAL. ACCORDINGLY, WE`LL
NEED TO BE ON GUARD FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, WITH THIS INCREASED HUMIDITY/DEWPOINTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD, CONTINUED TO RIDE ON THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE WITH
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...GENERALLY FAVORING A TYPICAL
MID-JULY WARM/MODERATELY HUMID SET UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 INLAND,
WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS 65 TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARM FRNTL BNDRY WILL LIFT JUST N OF THE REGION BY ARND MIDDAY...AS
LO PRES MOVES NNE FM SE VA TO JUST OFF THE DE/MD CST. THAT LO WILL
THEN TRACK NE OUT TO SEA THIS AFTN INTO SUN MORNG...PULLING THAT
BNDRY BACK S INTO NRN NC AS A COLD FRONT. SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO SUN MORNG...WITH THE BEST
CHCS SHIFTING FM THE ENTIRE REGION THIS MORNG...SWRD INTO SRN VA
AND NRN/NE NC THIS EVENG INTO SUN MORNG. EXPECT MAINLY VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS ACRS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE TIME...WITH IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT ANY TAF SITE THRU SUN MORNG...ESPLY DURING
THE MORNG HRS.

&&

.MARINE...
WSW GUSTS HAVE BEEN TO 20-25 KTS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY
FM ARND 0930Z THIS MORNG...AND WILL CALM DOWN TO MORE LIKE 15-20
KT GUSTS BY 13Z. SO...SINCE THIS WILL ONLY LAST ABT 3 HRS...HAVE
NOT ISSUED A SCA...AND HAVE WINDS AT 15 KT FOR THE FCST.

NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU SUN NGT. UNSETTLED WX
CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
FRNTL BNDRY WAS LIFTING N ACRS THE WTRS EARLY THIS MORNG...AND
WILL LIFT JUST N OF THE AREA BY ARND MIDDAY AS LO PRES MOVES NNE
OFF THE DE/MD CST. WINDS WILL SHIFT FM THE ESE OVR THE LWR MD AND
VA ERN SHR...TO THE SW OR W DURING THIS MORNG TO ARND MIDDAY. THE
FRONT WILL THEN DROP BACK S OF THE AREA THIS EVENG INTO SUN
MORNG...AS SFC LO TRACKS NE OUT TO SEA. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT...SEAS
2-3 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 041450
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1050 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MORNING ANALYSIS INDICATES SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF
THE ATLC COAST OF THE ERN SHORE...WITH TRAILING SFC BOUNDARY
ALIGNED W-E OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER AREA
OF SFC LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACRS SW PA WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT OVER WV AND ERN KY. WSW FLOW PREVAILS ALOFT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS STILL ONGOING ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE UPPER BAY AND INTO
ACCOMACK CO VA AND MD ZONES. ELSEWHERE...RADAR GENLY PRECIP-FREE
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS...WITH INCREASING AMTS OF SUNSHINE OVER
FAR SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...HAVE SCALED BACK ON POPS TO GO W/ A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH ABOUT 18-19Z MOST AREAS (EXCEPT WILL MAINTAIN
LOW CHC POPS N/NE CLOSE TO THE FRONT) AS REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN
THE 2 SYSTEMS. AFTER 18-19Z...SFC LOW IN SW PA TRACKS ENE WITH
TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING E OF THE MTNS. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL PUSH ACRS THE REGION AS WELL...AND AREA WILL EVEN BE INTO
SOME RRQ FORCING FROM 250-300 MB UPPER LEVEL JET. WITH SFC
HEATING/INCREASING INSTABILITY...EXPECT POPS TO RAPIDLY RAMP BACK
UP TO HIGH CHC CENTRAL AND SE (40-50%) TO LIKELY (60%) N/NW. WILL
THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT LIKELY POPS INTO ERN/SE VA AFTER 20-21Z.
SPC/RAP MESOANALYSIS SHOWS ~30KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR INTO SRN /SE
VA BY LATE AFTN...SO SOME GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH STORMS (MORE
LIKELY IF ENOUGH SUNSHINE CAN PREVAIL THROUGH MID AFTN).
STILL...THE MAIN CONCERN LATER THIS AFTN/EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO
BE FROM POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL AREAS OF OF MDT/HVY RA (ESPECIALLY OVER
SRN VA/NE NC WHERE SOME OF THESE AREAS RECEIVED 1-3 INCHES/LOCALLY
HIGHER AMTS FRI EVE). DEPENDING ON RADAR TRENDS LATER TODAY...MAY
NEED TO ISSUE A FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WATCH W/ AFTN FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA (MAINLY SRN 1/2). HIGHS TODAY
RANGE FROM UPPER 80S/AROUND 90F FAR S/SE WITH VARIABLY/PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES TO THE UPPER 70S/LWR 80S N WHERE SKIES AVG CLOUDY/MOSTLY
CLOUDY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
FNTL BNDRY STALLS INVOF VA/NC BORDER TNGT...THEN BEGINS TO MOVE
BACK N ONCE AGN LT SUN INTO MON AS LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE FM
THE GULF STATES TO THE CNTRL MTNS. THERE RMN SOME MDL
INCONSISTENCIES IN THIS SCENERIO...LARGELY RELATING TO TIMING AND
WHERE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF TAKES PLACE.

LINGERING SHRAS/TSTMS TNGT FAR SRN VA/NE NC WHILE DRYING OCCURS
OVR NNE PORTIONS OF THE FA (ESP AFT MDNGT). THE FAVORED AREA OF
ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS ON SUN LIKELY TO BE FM SCNTRL VA TO FAR SE
VA/NE NC INVOF STALLED FNTL BNDRY. MOSTLY CLOUDY S...PARTLY CLOUDY
NE TNGT THROUGH SUN. LO TEMPS FM THE M/U60S N TO THE U60S- L70S S.
HI TEMPS SUN MNLY IN THE L/M80S.

00Z/06 NAM FARTHER W W/ AXIS OF SGFNT PCPN SUN NGT INTO MON AS LO
PRES MOVES INTO THE CNTRL MTNS. WILL HAVE POPS GRADUALLY INCRSG
INTO CNTRL/INTERIOR ERN VA INTO MON...WHILE KEEPING POPS LWR AT
MUCH OF THE CST. MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB
CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH MON XPCD TO AVG 1-1.5 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL
VA TO INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF ABT 1/2 INCH OVR THE
LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL
DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR REPEATING
SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY CONTINUED LOW AMPLITUDE
UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH GRADUAL RE-REEMERGENCE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT THAT WITH OCCASIONAL UPPER
DISTURBANCES/PERTURBATIONS PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC,
AS WEAK SFC TROUGH PERSISTS IN PLACE OVERHEAD, MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHC
RANGE BY DAY (NEAR CLIMO NORMS), W/ SLIGHT CHC OR LESS OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST PW VALUES WILL ALSO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD...LINGERING AROUND +2 S.D. ABOVE NORMAL. ACCORDINGLY, WE`LL
NEED TO BE ON GUARD FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, WITH THIS INCREASED HUMIDITY/DEWPOINTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD, CONTINUED TO RIDE ON THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE WITH
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...GENERALLY FAVORING A TYPICAL
MID-JULY WARM/MODERATELY HUMID SET UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 INLAND,
WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS 65 TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARM FRNTL BNDRY WILL LIFT JUST N OF THE REGION BY ARND MIDDAY...AS
LO PRES MOVES NNE FM SE VA TO JUST OFF THE DE/MD CST. THAT LO WILL
THEN TRACK NE OUT TO SEA THIS AFTN INTO SUN MORNG...PULLING THAT
BNDRY BACK S INTO NRN NC AS A COLD FRONT. SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO SUN MORNG...WITH THE BEST
CHCS SHIFTING FM THE ENTIRE REGION THIS MORNG...SWRD INTO SRN VA
AND NRN/NE NC THIS EVENG INTO SUN MORNG. EXPECT MAINLY VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS ACRS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE TIME...WITH IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT ANY TAF SITE THRU SUN MORNG...ESPLY DURING
THE MORNG HRS.

&&

.MARINE...
WSW GUSTS HAVE BEEN TO 20-25 KTS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY
FM ARND 0930Z THIS MORNG...AND WILL CALM DOWN TO MORE LIKE 15-20
KT GUSTS BY 13Z. SO...SINCE THIS WILL ONLY LAST ABT 3 HRS...HAVE
NOT ISSUED A SCA...AND HAVE WINDS AT 15 KT FOR THE FCST.

NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU SUN NGT. UNSETTLED WX
CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
FRNTL BNDRY WAS LIFTING N ACRS THE WTRS EARLY THIS MORNG...AND
WILL LIFT JUST N OF THE AREA BY ARND MIDDAY AS LO PRES MOVES NNE
OFF THE DE/MD CST. WINDS WILL SHIFT FM THE ESE OVR THE LWR MD AND
VA ERN SHR...TO THE SW OR W DURING THIS MORNG TO ARND MIDDAY. THE
FRONT WILL THEN DROP BACK S OF THE AREA THIS EVENG INTO SUN
MORNG...AS SFC LO TRACKS NE OUT TO SEA. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT...SEAS
2-3 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG



000
FXUS61 KRNK 041325
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
925 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING US ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. THEN...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...KEEPING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK...AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 925 AM EDT SATURDAY...

ADJUSTED POPS WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDS THIS MORNING...THEN
MODIFIED TOWARDS HRRR AND HIRESW-ARW FOR LATE MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. MODIFIED TEMPERATURES WITH LATEST OBS AND COOL LATE
MORNING READINGS TOWARDS LAV. WITH WEST WINDS CREATING SOME
SUNSHINE...TWEAKED CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
MORE CHANGES AS DAY PROGRESSES. HAPPY 4TH OF JULY!


AS OF 430 AM EDT SATURDAY...

ESSENTIALLY THE SAME WEATHER FACTORS TO DEAL WITH AGAIN TODAY AS
IMPULSES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER TROF
OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A SURFACE FRONT WAVERING AROUND THROUGH THE
AREA. TODAYS ITERATION WILL SEE A SURFACE LOW PULLING OFF THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST WHICH SWINGS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK THROUGH THE
REGION AS A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDER TO THE REGION...BUT THE CONTINUED LACK OF
INSTABILITY INDICATES NO SEVERE FOR TODAY. SOME AREAS OF THE MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE REGION INTO THE GRAYSON HIGHLANDS RECEIVED 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES OF
RAIN YESTERDAY SO THEY ARE VULNERABLE TO HYDRO CONCERNS. HOWEVER...DO
NOT EXPECT COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION TO BE WIDESPREAD AWAY FROM THE
FRONT...AND THE FRONT SHOULD HAVE A BIT OF A PUSH TO IT TO KEEP THE
PRECIPITATION MOVING. THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY TO GENERATE
DEEP CONVECTION AND THE FACT THAT THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL
GET HUNG UP OVER OUR AREA SHOULD HELP LIMIT QPF AMOUNTS TODAY AND
MITIGATE ANY LARGE SCALE FLOOD THREAT SO DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE A FLOOD
WATCH WITH THIS PACKAGE. AS ALWAYS THIS SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY. THE FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MIDNIGHT WITH JUST SOME
LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE OVERNIGHT.

AFTER A CHILLY AND DAMP FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER AS WINDS BECOME WESTERLY AND WE GET SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY FROM THE LOW/MID 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
TO LOW/MID 70S WEST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 60S EAST TO LOWER 60S WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT SATURDAY...

MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
AND ITS SUBSEQUENT NORTHWARD DRIFT INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK. TAIL END OF LONG STANDING EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL BECOME
CUTOFF ACROSS NORTHERN GA/AL/EASTERN TN FROM THE PARENT UPPER
TROUGH...WHICH WILL SHEAR OUT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS A SHORT WAVE
RIDGE DRIFTS INTO THE OH VALLEY. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN DRIFT
SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO MON...FINALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION BY
TUESDAY AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH FROM GA IT TAKES ON A NEGATIVE
TILT...WHICH WILL FURTHER ENHANCE OVERALL WEAK DYNAMICS/LIFT AND
CERTAINLY PROLONG THE WET WEATHER PATTERN. ABUNDANT DEEP MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH PWATS IN THE 1.75 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. EXTENSIVE TO NEAR SOLID CLOUD COVER WILL
LIMIT HEATING...SO INSTABILITIES REMAIN MEAGER AND OVERALL
DYNAMICS ARE WEAK. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A LARGE SWATH
OF DEEP MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW...TRACKING FROM
GA/SC NORTHWARD INTO THE RNK CWA BY SUN AFTERNOON...DRIFTING INTO
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA MON...THEN FINALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST
OF THE CWA BY TUE. THIS WILL REQUIRE CONTINUATION OF LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS SAT-MON ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH A LIMITED
DIURNAL SWING GIVEN THE UPPER LOW ESSENTIALLY DRIFTING RIGHT
ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CWA.

THE PATH OF THE UPPER LOW SHOULD FOCUS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
WITH 3HR FFG VALUES AVERAGING IN THE 1.5 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA AND THE RECENT PROLONGED WET SPELL...WE WILL NEED
TO WATCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS CAREFULLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF ANY ORGANIZED OR STRONG CONVECTION...GIVEN
THE MEAGER LAPSE RATES AND LACK OF INSTABILITY/DYNAMICS...SHOULD
HOLD HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN CHECK. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING IN THE HWO...BUT NO FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA TUE...WE SHOULD SEE
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TO FINALLY REDUCE POPS TO JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE CATEGORY. DIURNAL CONVECTION BECOMES A BETTER BET
BY TUE AFTERNOON WITH EXPECTED GREATER INSOLATION THAN WE HAVE
SEEN IN QUITE SOME TIME. A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING
THE WESTERN AREAS BY LATE DAY...WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND LINEAR ORIENTED CONVECTION COULD
BE APPROACHING THE WV/SW VA COUNTIES BY EVENING.

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BE MINIMAL WITH LIMITED THUNDER.
SPC CURRENTLY JUST HAS GENERAL THUNDER THROUGH THE PERIOD AT THIS
TIME.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MON...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES TUESDAY WITH GREATER
INSOLATION. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGH PWATS/DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT SATURDAY...

WET WEATHER DESTINED TO CONTINUE. AFTER A VERY BRIEF RESPITE FROM
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TUESDAY...A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DRIFT
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST BY WED AND THEN BECOME ELONGATED
WEST-EAST ACROSS THE CWA AND STALL. WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO
OUR SOUTH AND WESTERLIES TO OUR NORTH...WE ARE DESTINED ONCE
AGAIN TO BE STUCK IN AN ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH NUMEROUS
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TRACKING FROM THE WESTERN U.S. TO THE EASTERN
U.S. SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR
INEVITABLE...WITH ONE WED AND ANOTHER ONE ON THU. UPPER FLOW
ATTEMPTS TO TRANSITION BACK TO NORTHWEST FLOW TOWARD THE WEEKEND
AS UPPER RIDING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS COULD
REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED CONVECTION/RAINFALL...BUT WILL
NONETHELESS KEEP US IN AN ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN.
THERE WOULD APPEAR TO BE A CONTINUED THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF ANTECEDENT VERY MOIST
CONDITIONS...AND AT LEAST A MINIMAL THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD.

WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE LEVELS CONTINUING...EXPECT
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT SATURDAY...

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
VALID PERIOD. SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW TO THE WEST OF THE REGION WILL
SPLIT...WITH PARENT TROUGH SHEARING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY
SUN...WHILE A WEAK CUTOFF DEVELOPS ALONG THE TAIL OF THE UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL
DRIFT NORTH INTO THE RNK CWA SUN-MON.

A FINAL WAVE OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL UPPER
LOW/TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT THIS
HOUR. THIS WILL LIKELY TAKE MUCH OF THE DAY TO TRANSLATE ACROSS
THE REGION ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM. ATTENDANT
CIGS WILL BE IFR THROUGH THE MORNING...IMPROVING TO MVFR BY
AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES GENERALLY IFR-MVFR THROUGH THE DAY.
DURING THE AFTERNOON...THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT MORE
TO THE SOUTH...SO PRECIPITATION COULD FINALLY COME TO AN END AT
LWB/BLF BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT MAY LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY AT
OTHER TAF SITES WITH GENERALLY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERNIGHT...THE
AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES...BUT ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL NOT DRIFT
BACK INTO THE CWA UNTIL AFT 12 SUN. HOWEVER...EXPECT WIDESPREAD
LOW CLOUDS/CIGS AND FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD IFR-
LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS.

NOT ADVERTISING ANY TSRA AT THIS TIME AS FEEL SUPPORT FOR SUCH
WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA TODAY.

WINDS BECOMING SW-W 5-7KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING
VRB03KT TO CALM OVERNIGHT...HELPING TO PROMOTE WIDESPREAD FOG/LOW
CLOUDS WITH VERY MOIST GROUND IN PLACE.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND
SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDOWS
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR VFR CONDITIONS INCREASE TUE. UPPER LOW/TROUGH
WILL LINGER WEST OF THE VA/NC COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN BEGIN TO DRIFT INTO NORTHERN VA
MON. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE OH VALLEY BY
WED. THIS LEAVES A VERY UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH
IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR-
VFR OUTSIDE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOONS. AT THIS
POINT...TUESDAY APPEARS TO OFFER THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/MBS
NEAR TERM...AMS/MBS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...KK/RAB
AVIATION...MBS/RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 041325
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
925 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING US ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. THEN...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...KEEPING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK...AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 925 AM EDT SATURDAY...

ADJUSTED POPS WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDS THIS MORNING...THEN
MODIFIED TOWARDS HRRR AND HIRESW-ARW FOR LATE MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. MODIFIED TEMPERATURES WITH LATEST OBS AND COOL LATE
MORNING READINGS TOWARDS LAV. WITH WEST WINDS CREATING SOME
SUNSHINE...TWEAKED CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
MORE CHANGES AS DAY PROGRESSES. HAPPY 4TH OF JULY!


AS OF 430 AM EDT SATURDAY...

ESSENTIALLY THE SAME WEATHER FACTORS TO DEAL WITH AGAIN TODAY AS
IMPULSES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER TROF
OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A SURFACE FRONT WAVERING AROUND THROUGH THE
AREA. TODAYS ITERATION WILL SEE A SURFACE LOW PULLING OFF THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST WHICH SWINGS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK THROUGH THE
REGION AS A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDER TO THE REGION...BUT THE CONTINUED LACK OF
INSTABILITY INDICATES NO SEVERE FOR TODAY. SOME AREAS OF THE MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE REGION INTO THE GRAYSON HIGHLANDS RECEIVED 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES OF
RAIN YESTERDAY SO THEY ARE VULNERABLE TO HYDRO CONCERNS. HOWEVER...DO
NOT EXPECT COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION TO BE WIDESPREAD AWAY FROM THE
FRONT...AND THE FRONT SHOULD HAVE A BIT OF A PUSH TO IT TO KEEP THE
PRECIPITATION MOVING. THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY TO GENERATE
DEEP CONVECTION AND THE FACT THAT THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL
GET HUNG UP OVER OUR AREA SHOULD HELP LIMIT QPF AMOUNTS TODAY AND
MITIGATE ANY LARGE SCALE FLOOD THREAT SO DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE A FLOOD
WATCH WITH THIS PACKAGE. AS ALWAYS THIS SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY. THE FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MIDNIGHT WITH JUST SOME
LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE OVERNIGHT.

AFTER A CHILLY AND DAMP FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER AS WINDS BECOME WESTERLY AND WE GET SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY FROM THE LOW/MID 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
TO LOW/MID 70S WEST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 60S EAST TO LOWER 60S WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT SATURDAY...

MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
AND ITS SUBSEQUENT NORTHWARD DRIFT INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK. TAIL END OF LONG STANDING EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL BECOME
CUTOFF ACROSS NORTHERN GA/AL/EASTERN TN FROM THE PARENT UPPER
TROUGH...WHICH WILL SHEAR OUT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS A SHORT WAVE
RIDGE DRIFTS INTO THE OH VALLEY. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN DRIFT
SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO MON...FINALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION BY
TUESDAY AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH FROM GA IT TAKES ON A NEGATIVE
TILT...WHICH WILL FURTHER ENHANCE OVERALL WEAK DYNAMICS/LIFT AND
CERTAINLY PROLONG THE WET WEATHER PATTERN. ABUNDANT DEEP MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH PWATS IN THE 1.75 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. EXTENSIVE TO NEAR SOLID CLOUD COVER WILL
LIMIT HEATING...SO INSTABILITIES REMAIN MEAGER AND OVERALL
DYNAMICS ARE WEAK. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A LARGE SWATH
OF DEEP MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW...TRACKING FROM
GA/SC NORTHWARD INTO THE RNK CWA BY SUN AFTERNOON...DRIFTING INTO
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA MON...THEN FINALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST
OF THE CWA BY TUE. THIS WILL REQUIRE CONTINUATION OF LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS SAT-MON ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH A LIMITED
DIURNAL SWING GIVEN THE UPPER LOW ESSENTIALLY DRIFTING RIGHT
ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CWA.

THE PATH OF THE UPPER LOW SHOULD FOCUS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
WITH 3HR FFG VALUES AVERAGING IN THE 1.5 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA AND THE RECENT PROLONGED WET SPELL...WE WILL NEED
TO WATCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS CAREFULLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF ANY ORGANIZED OR STRONG CONVECTION...GIVEN
THE MEAGER LAPSE RATES AND LACK OF INSTABILITY/DYNAMICS...SHOULD
HOLD HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN CHECK. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING IN THE HWO...BUT NO FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA TUE...WE SHOULD SEE
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TO FINALLY REDUCE POPS TO JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE CATEGORY. DIURNAL CONVECTION BECOMES A BETTER BET
BY TUE AFTERNOON WITH EXPECTED GREATER INSOLATION THAN WE HAVE
SEEN IN QUITE SOME TIME. A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING
THE WESTERN AREAS BY LATE DAY...WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND LINEAR ORIENTED CONVECTION COULD
BE APPROACHING THE WV/SW VA COUNTIES BY EVENING.

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BE MINIMAL WITH LIMITED THUNDER.
SPC CURRENTLY JUST HAS GENERAL THUNDER THROUGH THE PERIOD AT THIS
TIME.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MON...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES TUESDAY WITH GREATER
INSOLATION. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGH PWATS/DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT SATURDAY...

WET WEATHER DESTINED TO CONTINUE. AFTER A VERY BRIEF RESPITE FROM
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TUESDAY...A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DRIFT
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST BY WED AND THEN BECOME ELONGATED
WEST-EAST ACROSS THE CWA AND STALL. WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO
OUR SOUTH AND WESTERLIES TO OUR NORTH...WE ARE DESTINED ONCE
AGAIN TO BE STUCK IN AN ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH NUMEROUS
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TRACKING FROM THE WESTERN U.S. TO THE EASTERN
U.S. SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR
INEVITABLE...WITH ONE WED AND ANOTHER ONE ON THU. UPPER FLOW
ATTEMPTS TO TRANSITION BACK TO NORTHWEST FLOW TOWARD THE WEEKEND
AS UPPER RIDING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS COULD
REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED CONVECTION/RAINFALL...BUT WILL
NONETHELESS KEEP US IN AN ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN.
THERE WOULD APPEAR TO BE A CONTINUED THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF ANTECEDENT VERY MOIST
CONDITIONS...AND AT LEAST A MINIMAL THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD.

WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE LEVELS CONTINUING...EXPECT
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT SATURDAY...

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
VALID PERIOD. SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW TO THE WEST OF THE REGION WILL
SPLIT...WITH PARENT TROUGH SHEARING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY
SUN...WHILE A WEAK CUTOFF DEVELOPS ALONG THE TAIL OF THE UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL
DRIFT NORTH INTO THE RNK CWA SUN-MON.

A FINAL WAVE OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL UPPER
LOW/TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT THIS
HOUR. THIS WILL LIKELY TAKE MUCH OF THE DAY TO TRANSLATE ACROSS
THE REGION ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM. ATTENDANT
CIGS WILL BE IFR THROUGH THE MORNING...IMPROVING TO MVFR BY
AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES GENERALLY IFR-MVFR THROUGH THE DAY.
DURING THE AFTERNOON...THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT MORE
TO THE SOUTH...SO PRECIPITATION COULD FINALLY COME TO AN END AT
LWB/BLF BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT MAY LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY AT
OTHER TAF SITES WITH GENERALLY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERNIGHT...THE
AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES...BUT ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL NOT DRIFT
BACK INTO THE CWA UNTIL AFT 12 SUN. HOWEVER...EXPECT WIDESPREAD
LOW CLOUDS/CIGS AND FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD IFR-
LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS.

NOT ADVERTISING ANY TSRA AT THIS TIME AS FEEL SUPPORT FOR SUCH
WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA TODAY.

WINDS BECOMING SW-W 5-7KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING
VRB03KT TO CALM OVERNIGHT...HELPING TO PROMOTE WIDESPREAD FOG/LOW
CLOUDS WITH VERY MOIST GROUND IN PLACE.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND
SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDOWS
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR VFR CONDITIONS INCREASE TUE. UPPER LOW/TROUGH
WILL LINGER WEST OF THE VA/NC COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN BEGIN TO DRIFT INTO NORTHERN VA
MON. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE OH VALLEY BY
WED. THIS LEAVES A VERY UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH
IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR-
VFR OUTSIDE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOONS. AT THIS
POINT...TUESDAY APPEARS TO OFFER THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/MBS
NEAR TERM...AMS/MBS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...KK/RAB
AVIATION...MBS/RAB



000
FXUS61 KRNK 041325
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
925 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING US ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. THEN...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...KEEPING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK...AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 925 AM EDT SATURDAY...

ADJUSTED POPS WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDS THIS MORNING...THEN
MODIFIED TOWARDS HRRR AND HIRESW-ARW FOR LATE MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. MODIFIED TEMPERATURES WITH LATEST OBS AND COOL LATE
MORNING READINGS TOWARDS LAV. WITH WEST WINDS CREATING SOME
SUNSHINE...TWEAKED CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
MORE CHANGES AS DAY PROGRESSES. HAPPY 4TH OF JULY!


AS OF 430 AM EDT SATURDAY...

ESSENTIALLY THE SAME WEATHER FACTORS TO DEAL WITH AGAIN TODAY AS
IMPULSES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER TROF
OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A SURFACE FRONT WAVERING AROUND THROUGH THE
AREA. TODAYS ITERATION WILL SEE A SURFACE LOW PULLING OFF THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST WHICH SWINGS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK THROUGH THE
REGION AS A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDER TO THE REGION...BUT THE CONTINUED LACK OF
INSTABILITY INDICATES NO SEVERE FOR TODAY. SOME AREAS OF THE MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE REGION INTO THE GRAYSON HIGHLANDS RECEIVED 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES OF
RAIN YESTERDAY SO THEY ARE VULNERABLE TO HYDRO CONCERNS. HOWEVER...DO
NOT EXPECT COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION TO BE WIDESPREAD AWAY FROM THE
FRONT...AND THE FRONT SHOULD HAVE A BIT OF A PUSH TO IT TO KEEP THE
PRECIPITATION MOVING. THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY TO GENERATE
DEEP CONVECTION AND THE FACT THAT THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL
GET HUNG UP OVER OUR AREA SHOULD HELP LIMIT QPF AMOUNTS TODAY AND
MITIGATE ANY LARGE SCALE FLOOD THREAT SO DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE A FLOOD
WATCH WITH THIS PACKAGE. AS ALWAYS THIS SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY. THE FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MIDNIGHT WITH JUST SOME
LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE OVERNIGHT.

AFTER A CHILLY AND DAMP FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER AS WINDS BECOME WESTERLY AND WE GET SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY FROM THE LOW/MID 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
TO LOW/MID 70S WEST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 60S EAST TO LOWER 60S WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT SATURDAY...

MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
AND ITS SUBSEQUENT NORTHWARD DRIFT INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK. TAIL END OF LONG STANDING EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL BECOME
CUTOFF ACROSS NORTHERN GA/AL/EASTERN TN FROM THE PARENT UPPER
TROUGH...WHICH WILL SHEAR OUT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS A SHORT WAVE
RIDGE DRIFTS INTO THE OH VALLEY. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN DRIFT
SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO MON...FINALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION BY
TUESDAY AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH FROM GA IT TAKES ON A NEGATIVE
TILT...WHICH WILL FURTHER ENHANCE OVERALL WEAK DYNAMICS/LIFT AND
CERTAINLY PROLONG THE WET WEATHER PATTERN. ABUNDANT DEEP MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH PWATS IN THE 1.75 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. EXTENSIVE TO NEAR SOLID CLOUD COVER WILL
LIMIT HEATING...SO INSTABILITIES REMAIN MEAGER AND OVERALL
DYNAMICS ARE WEAK. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A LARGE SWATH
OF DEEP MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW...TRACKING FROM
GA/SC NORTHWARD INTO THE RNK CWA BY SUN AFTERNOON...DRIFTING INTO
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA MON...THEN FINALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST
OF THE CWA BY TUE. THIS WILL REQUIRE CONTINUATION OF LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS SAT-MON ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH A LIMITED
DIURNAL SWING GIVEN THE UPPER LOW ESSENTIALLY DRIFTING RIGHT
ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CWA.

THE PATH OF THE UPPER LOW SHOULD FOCUS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
WITH 3HR FFG VALUES AVERAGING IN THE 1.5 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA AND THE RECENT PROLONGED WET SPELL...WE WILL NEED
TO WATCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS CAREFULLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF ANY ORGANIZED OR STRONG CONVECTION...GIVEN
THE MEAGER LAPSE RATES AND LACK OF INSTABILITY/DYNAMICS...SHOULD
HOLD HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN CHECK. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING IN THE HWO...BUT NO FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA TUE...WE SHOULD SEE
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TO FINALLY REDUCE POPS TO JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE CATEGORY. DIURNAL CONVECTION BECOMES A BETTER BET
BY TUE AFTERNOON WITH EXPECTED GREATER INSOLATION THAN WE HAVE
SEEN IN QUITE SOME TIME. A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING
THE WESTERN AREAS BY LATE DAY...WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND LINEAR ORIENTED CONVECTION COULD
BE APPROACHING THE WV/SW VA COUNTIES BY EVENING.

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BE MINIMAL WITH LIMITED THUNDER.
SPC CURRENTLY JUST HAS GENERAL THUNDER THROUGH THE PERIOD AT THIS
TIME.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MON...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES TUESDAY WITH GREATER
INSOLATION. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGH PWATS/DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT SATURDAY...

WET WEATHER DESTINED TO CONTINUE. AFTER A VERY BRIEF RESPITE FROM
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TUESDAY...A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DRIFT
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST BY WED AND THEN BECOME ELONGATED
WEST-EAST ACROSS THE CWA AND STALL. WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO
OUR SOUTH AND WESTERLIES TO OUR NORTH...WE ARE DESTINED ONCE
AGAIN TO BE STUCK IN AN ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH NUMEROUS
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TRACKING FROM THE WESTERN U.S. TO THE EASTERN
U.S. SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR
INEVITABLE...WITH ONE WED AND ANOTHER ONE ON THU. UPPER FLOW
ATTEMPTS TO TRANSITION BACK TO NORTHWEST FLOW TOWARD THE WEEKEND
AS UPPER RIDING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS COULD
REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED CONVECTION/RAINFALL...BUT WILL
NONETHELESS KEEP US IN AN ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN.
THERE WOULD APPEAR TO BE A CONTINUED THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF ANTECEDENT VERY MOIST
CONDITIONS...AND AT LEAST A MINIMAL THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD.

WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE LEVELS CONTINUING...EXPECT
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT SATURDAY...

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
VALID PERIOD. SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW TO THE WEST OF THE REGION WILL
SPLIT...WITH PARENT TROUGH SHEARING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY
SUN...WHILE A WEAK CUTOFF DEVELOPS ALONG THE TAIL OF THE UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL
DRIFT NORTH INTO THE RNK CWA SUN-MON.

A FINAL WAVE OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL UPPER
LOW/TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT THIS
HOUR. THIS WILL LIKELY TAKE MUCH OF THE DAY TO TRANSLATE ACROSS
THE REGION ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM. ATTENDANT
CIGS WILL BE IFR THROUGH THE MORNING...IMPROVING TO MVFR BY
AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES GENERALLY IFR-MVFR THROUGH THE DAY.
DURING THE AFTERNOON...THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT MORE
TO THE SOUTH...SO PRECIPITATION COULD FINALLY COME TO AN END AT
LWB/BLF BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT MAY LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY AT
OTHER TAF SITES WITH GENERALLY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERNIGHT...THE
AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES...BUT ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL NOT DRIFT
BACK INTO THE CWA UNTIL AFT 12 SUN. HOWEVER...EXPECT WIDESPREAD
LOW CLOUDS/CIGS AND FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD IFR-
LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS.

NOT ADVERTISING ANY TSRA AT THIS TIME AS FEEL SUPPORT FOR SUCH
WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA TODAY.

WINDS BECOMING SW-W 5-7KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING
VRB03KT TO CALM OVERNIGHT...HELPING TO PROMOTE WIDESPREAD FOG/LOW
CLOUDS WITH VERY MOIST GROUND IN PLACE.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND
SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDOWS
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR VFR CONDITIONS INCREASE TUE. UPPER LOW/TROUGH
WILL LINGER WEST OF THE VA/NC COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN BEGIN TO DRIFT INTO NORTHERN VA
MON. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE OH VALLEY BY
WED. THIS LEAVES A VERY UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH
IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR-
VFR OUTSIDE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOONS. AT THIS
POINT...TUESDAY APPEARS TO OFFER THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/MBS
NEAR TERM...AMS/MBS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...KK/RAB
AVIATION...MBS/RAB



000
FXUS61 KRNK 041325
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
925 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING US ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. THEN...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...KEEPING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK...AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 925 AM EDT SATURDAY...

ADJUSTED POPS WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDS THIS MORNING...THEN
MODIFIED TOWARDS HRRR AND HIRESW-ARW FOR LATE MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. MODIFIED TEMPERATURES WITH LATEST OBS AND COOL LATE
MORNING READINGS TOWARDS LAV. WITH WEST WINDS CREATING SOME
SUNSHINE...TWEAKED CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
MORE CHANGES AS DAY PROGRESSES. HAPPY 4TH OF JULY!


AS OF 430 AM EDT SATURDAY...

ESSENTIALLY THE SAME WEATHER FACTORS TO DEAL WITH AGAIN TODAY AS
IMPULSES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER TROF
OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A SURFACE FRONT WAVERING AROUND THROUGH THE
AREA. TODAYS ITERATION WILL SEE A SURFACE LOW PULLING OFF THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST WHICH SWINGS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK THROUGH THE
REGION AS A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDER TO THE REGION...BUT THE CONTINUED LACK OF
INSTABILITY INDICATES NO SEVERE FOR TODAY. SOME AREAS OF THE MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE REGION INTO THE GRAYSON HIGHLANDS RECEIVED 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES OF
RAIN YESTERDAY SO THEY ARE VULNERABLE TO HYDRO CONCERNS. HOWEVER...DO
NOT EXPECT COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION TO BE WIDESPREAD AWAY FROM THE
FRONT...AND THE FRONT SHOULD HAVE A BIT OF A PUSH TO IT TO KEEP THE
PRECIPITATION MOVING. THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY TO GENERATE
DEEP CONVECTION AND THE FACT THAT THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL
GET HUNG UP OVER OUR AREA SHOULD HELP LIMIT QPF AMOUNTS TODAY AND
MITIGATE ANY LARGE SCALE FLOOD THREAT SO DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE A FLOOD
WATCH WITH THIS PACKAGE. AS ALWAYS THIS SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY. THE FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MIDNIGHT WITH JUST SOME
LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE OVERNIGHT.

AFTER A CHILLY AND DAMP FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER AS WINDS BECOME WESTERLY AND WE GET SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY FROM THE LOW/MID 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
TO LOW/MID 70S WEST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 60S EAST TO LOWER 60S WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT SATURDAY...

MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
AND ITS SUBSEQUENT NORTHWARD DRIFT INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK. TAIL END OF LONG STANDING EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL BECOME
CUTOFF ACROSS NORTHERN GA/AL/EASTERN TN FROM THE PARENT UPPER
TROUGH...WHICH WILL SHEAR OUT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS A SHORT WAVE
RIDGE DRIFTS INTO THE OH VALLEY. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN DRIFT
SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO MON...FINALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION BY
TUESDAY AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH FROM GA IT TAKES ON A NEGATIVE
TILT...WHICH WILL FURTHER ENHANCE OVERALL WEAK DYNAMICS/LIFT AND
CERTAINLY PROLONG THE WET WEATHER PATTERN. ABUNDANT DEEP MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH PWATS IN THE 1.75 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. EXTENSIVE TO NEAR SOLID CLOUD COVER WILL
LIMIT HEATING...SO INSTABILITIES REMAIN MEAGER AND OVERALL
DYNAMICS ARE WEAK. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A LARGE SWATH
OF DEEP MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW...TRACKING FROM
GA/SC NORTHWARD INTO THE RNK CWA BY SUN AFTERNOON...DRIFTING INTO
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA MON...THEN FINALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST
OF THE CWA BY TUE. THIS WILL REQUIRE CONTINUATION OF LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS SAT-MON ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH A LIMITED
DIURNAL SWING GIVEN THE UPPER LOW ESSENTIALLY DRIFTING RIGHT
ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CWA.

THE PATH OF THE UPPER LOW SHOULD FOCUS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
WITH 3HR FFG VALUES AVERAGING IN THE 1.5 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA AND THE RECENT PROLONGED WET SPELL...WE WILL NEED
TO WATCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS CAREFULLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF ANY ORGANIZED OR STRONG CONVECTION...GIVEN
THE MEAGER LAPSE RATES AND LACK OF INSTABILITY/DYNAMICS...SHOULD
HOLD HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN CHECK. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING IN THE HWO...BUT NO FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA TUE...WE SHOULD SEE
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TO FINALLY REDUCE POPS TO JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE CATEGORY. DIURNAL CONVECTION BECOMES A BETTER BET
BY TUE AFTERNOON WITH EXPECTED GREATER INSOLATION THAN WE HAVE
SEEN IN QUITE SOME TIME. A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING
THE WESTERN AREAS BY LATE DAY...WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND LINEAR ORIENTED CONVECTION COULD
BE APPROACHING THE WV/SW VA COUNTIES BY EVENING.

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BE MINIMAL WITH LIMITED THUNDER.
SPC CURRENTLY JUST HAS GENERAL THUNDER THROUGH THE PERIOD AT THIS
TIME.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MON...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES TUESDAY WITH GREATER
INSOLATION. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGH PWATS/DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT SATURDAY...

WET WEATHER DESTINED TO CONTINUE. AFTER A VERY BRIEF RESPITE FROM
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TUESDAY...A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DRIFT
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST BY WED AND THEN BECOME ELONGATED
WEST-EAST ACROSS THE CWA AND STALL. WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO
OUR SOUTH AND WESTERLIES TO OUR NORTH...WE ARE DESTINED ONCE
AGAIN TO BE STUCK IN AN ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH NUMEROUS
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TRACKING FROM THE WESTERN U.S. TO THE EASTERN
U.S. SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR
INEVITABLE...WITH ONE WED AND ANOTHER ONE ON THU. UPPER FLOW
ATTEMPTS TO TRANSITION BACK TO NORTHWEST FLOW TOWARD THE WEEKEND
AS UPPER RIDING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS COULD
REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED CONVECTION/RAINFALL...BUT WILL
NONETHELESS KEEP US IN AN ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN.
THERE WOULD APPEAR TO BE A CONTINUED THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF ANTECEDENT VERY MOIST
CONDITIONS...AND AT LEAST A MINIMAL THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD.

WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE LEVELS CONTINUING...EXPECT
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT SATURDAY...

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
VALID PERIOD. SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW TO THE WEST OF THE REGION WILL
SPLIT...WITH PARENT TROUGH SHEARING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY
SUN...WHILE A WEAK CUTOFF DEVELOPS ALONG THE TAIL OF THE UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL
DRIFT NORTH INTO THE RNK CWA SUN-MON.

A FINAL WAVE OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL UPPER
LOW/TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT THIS
HOUR. THIS WILL LIKELY TAKE MUCH OF THE DAY TO TRANSLATE ACROSS
THE REGION ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM. ATTENDANT
CIGS WILL BE IFR THROUGH THE MORNING...IMPROVING TO MVFR BY
AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES GENERALLY IFR-MVFR THROUGH THE DAY.
DURING THE AFTERNOON...THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT MORE
TO THE SOUTH...SO PRECIPITATION COULD FINALLY COME TO AN END AT
LWB/BLF BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT MAY LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY AT
OTHER TAF SITES WITH GENERALLY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERNIGHT...THE
AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES...BUT ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL NOT DRIFT
BACK INTO THE CWA UNTIL AFT 12 SUN. HOWEVER...EXPECT WIDESPREAD
LOW CLOUDS/CIGS AND FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD IFR-
LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS.

NOT ADVERTISING ANY TSRA AT THIS TIME AS FEEL SUPPORT FOR SUCH
WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA TODAY.

WINDS BECOMING SW-W 5-7KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING
VRB03KT TO CALM OVERNIGHT...HELPING TO PROMOTE WIDESPREAD FOG/LOW
CLOUDS WITH VERY MOIST GROUND IN PLACE.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND
SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDOWS
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR VFR CONDITIONS INCREASE TUE. UPPER LOW/TROUGH
WILL LINGER WEST OF THE VA/NC COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN BEGIN TO DRIFT INTO NORTHERN VA
MON. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE OH VALLEY BY
WED. THIS LEAVES A VERY UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH
IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR-
VFR OUTSIDE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOONS. AT THIS
POINT...TUESDAY APPEARS TO OFFER THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/MBS
NEAR TERM...AMS/MBS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...KK/RAB
AVIATION...MBS/RAB



000
FXUS61 KRNK 041325
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
925 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING US ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. THEN...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...KEEPING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK...AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 925 AM EDT SATURDAY...

ADJUSTED POPS WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDS THIS MORNING...THEN
MODIFIED TOWARDS HRRR AND HIRESW-ARW FOR LATE MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. MODIFIED TEMPERATURES WITH LATEST OBS AND COOL LATE
MORNING READINGS TOWARDS LAV. WITH WEST WINDS CREATING SOME
SUNSHINE...TWEAKED CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
MORE CHANGES AS DAY PROGRESSES. HAPPY 4TH OF JULY!


AS OF 430 AM EDT SATURDAY...

ESSENTIALLY THE SAME WEATHER FACTORS TO DEAL WITH AGAIN TODAY AS
IMPULSES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER TROF
OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A SURFACE FRONT WAVERING AROUND THROUGH THE
AREA. TODAYS ITERATION WILL SEE A SURFACE LOW PULLING OFF THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST WHICH SWINGS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK THROUGH THE
REGION AS A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDER TO THE REGION...BUT THE CONTINUED LACK OF
INSTABILITY INDICATES NO SEVERE FOR TODAY. SOME AREAS OF THE MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE REGION INTO THE GRAYSON HIGHLANDS RECEIVED 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES OF
RAIN YESTERDAY SO THEY ARE VULNERABLE TO HYDRO CONCERNS. HOWEVER...DO
NOT EXPECT COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION TO BE WIDESPREAD AWAY FROM THE
FRONT...AND THE FRONT SHOULD HAVE A BIT OF A PUSH TO IT TO KEEP THE
PRECIPITATION MOVING. THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY TO GENERATE
DEEP CONVECTION AND THE FACT THAT THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL
GET HUNG UP OVER OUR AREA SHOULD HELP LIMIT QPF AMOUNTS TODAY AND
MITIGATE ANY LARGE SCALE FLOOD THREAT SO DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE A FLOOD
WATCH WITH THIS PACKAGE. AS ALWAYS THIS SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY. THE FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MIDNIGHT WITH JUST SOME
LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE OVERNIGHT.

AFTER A CHILLY AND DAMP FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER AS WINDS BECOME WESTERLY AND WE GET SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY FROM THE LOW/MID 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
TO LOW/MID 70S WEST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 60S EAST TO LOWER 60S WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT SATURDAY...

MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
AND ITS SUBSEQUENT NORTHWARD DRIFT INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK. TAIL END OF LONG STANDING EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL BECOME
CUTOFF ACROSS NORTHERN GA/AL/EASTERN TN FROM THE PARENT UPPER
TROUGH...WHICH WILL SHEAR OUT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS A SHORT WAVE
RIDGE DRIFTS INTO THE OH VALLEY. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN DRIFT
SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO MON...FINALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION BY
TUESDAY AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH FROM GA IT TAKES ON A NEGATIVE
TILT...WHICH WILL FURTHER ENHANCE OVERALL WEAK DYNAMICS/LIFT AND
CERTAINLY PROLONG THE WET WEATHER PATTERN. ABUNDANT DEEP MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH PWATS IN THE 1.75 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. EXTENSIVE TO NEAR SOLID CLOUD COVER WILL
LIMIT HEATING...SO INSTABILITIES REMAIN MEAGER AND OVERALL
DYNAMICS ARE WEAK. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A LARGE SWATH
OF DEEP MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW...TRACKING FROM
GA/SC NORTHWARD INTO THE RNK CWA BY SUN AFTERNOON...DRIFTING INTO
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA MON...THEN FINALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST
OF THE CWA BY TUE. THIS WILL REQUIRE CONTINUATION OF LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS SAT-MON ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH A LIMITED
DIURNAL SWING GIVEN THE UPPER LOW ESSENTIALLY DRIFTING RIGHT
ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CWA.

THE PATH OF THE UPPER LOW SHOULD FOCUS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
WITH 3HR FFG VALUES AVERAGING IN THE 1.5 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA AND THE RECENT PROLONGED WET SPELL...WE WILL NEED
TO WATCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS CAREFULLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF ANY ORGANIZED OR STRONG CONVECTION...GIVEN
THE MEAGER LAPSE RATES AND LACK OF INSTABILITY/DYNAMICS...SHOULD
HOLD HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN CHECK. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING IN THE HWO...BUT NO FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA TUE...WE SHOULD SEE
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TO FINALLY REDUCE POPS TO JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE CATEGORY. DIURNAL CONVECTION BECOMES A BETTER BET
BY TUE AFTERNOON WITH EXPECTED GREATER INSOLATION THAN WE HAVE
SEEN IN QUITE SOME TIME. A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING
THE WESTERN AREAS BY LATE DAY...WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND LINEAR ORIENTED CONVECTION COULD
BE APPROACHING THE WV/SW VA COUNTIES BY EVENING.

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BE MINIMAL WITH LIMITED THUNDER.
SPC CURRENTLY JUST HAS GENERAL THUNDER THROUGH THE PERIOD AT THIS
TIME.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MON...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES TUESDAY WITH GREATER
INSOLATION. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGH PWATS/DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT SATURDAY...

WET WEATHER DESTINED TO CONTINUE. AFTER A VERY BRIEF RESPITE FROM
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TUESDAY...A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DRIFT
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST BY WED AND THEN BECOME ELONGATED
WEST-EAST ACROSS THE CWA AND STALL. WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO
OUR SOUTH AND WESTERLIES TO OUR NORTH...WE ARE DESTINED ONCE
AGAIN TO BE STUCK IN AN ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH NUMEROUS
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TRACKING FROM THE WESTERN U.S. TO THE EASTERN
U.S. SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR
INEVITABLE...WITH ONE WED AND ANOTHER ONE ON THU. UPPER FLOW
ATTEMPTS TO TRANSITION BACK TO NORTHWEST FLOW TOWARD THE WEEKEND
AS UPPER RIDING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS COULD
REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED CONVECTION/RAINFALL...BUT WILL
NONETHELESS KEEP US IN AN ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN.
THERE WOULD APPEAR TO BE A CONTINUED THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF ANTECEDENT VERY MOIST
CONDITIONS...AND AT LEAST A MINIMAL THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD.

WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE LEVELS CONTINUING...EXPECT
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT SATURDAY...

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
VALID PERIOD. SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW TO THE WEST OF THE REGION WILL
SPLIT...WITH PARENT TROUGH SHEARING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY
SUN...WHILE A WEAK CUTOFF DEVELOPS ALONG THE TAIL OF THE UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL
DRIFT NORTH INTO THE RNK CWA SUN-MON.

A FINAL WAVE OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL UPPER
LOW/TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT THIS
HOUR. THIS WILL LIKELY TAKE MUCH OF THE DAY TO TRANSLATE ACROSS
THE REGION ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM. ATTENDANT
CIGS WILL BE IFR THROUGH THE MORNING...IMPROVING TO MVFR BY
AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES GENERALLY IFR-MVFR THROUGH THE DAY.
DURING THE AFTERNOON...THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT MORE
TO THE SOUTH...SO PRECIPITATION COULD FINALLY COME TO AN END AT
LWB/BLF BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT MAY LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY AT
OTHER TAF SITES WITH GENERALLY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERNIGHT...THE
AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES...BUT ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL NOT DRIFT
BACK INTO THE CWA UNTIL AFT 12 SUN. HOWEVER...EXPECT WIDESPREAD
LOW CLOUDS/CIGS AND FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD IFR-
LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS.

NOT ADVERTISING ANY TSRA AT THIS TIME AS FEEL SUPPORT FOR SUCH
WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA TODAY.

WINDS BECOMING SW-W 5-7KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING
VRB03KT TO CALM OVERNIGHT...HELPING TO PROMOTE WIDESPREAD FOG/LOW
CLOUDS WITH VERY MOIST GROUND IN PLACE.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND
SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDOWS
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR VFR CONDITIONS INCREASE TUE. UPPER LOW/TROUGH
WILL LINGER WEST OF THE VA/NC COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN BEGIN TO DRIFT INTO NORTHERN VA
MON. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE OH VALLEY BY
WED. THIS LEAVES A VERY UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH
IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR-
VFR OUTSIDE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOONS. AT THIS
POINT...TUESDAY APPEARS TO OFFER THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/MBS
NEAR TERM...AMS/MBS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...KK/RAB
AVIATION...MBS/RAB



000
FXUS61 KRNK 041325
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
925 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING US ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. THEN...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...KEEPING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK...AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 925 AM EDT SATURDAY...

ADJUSTED POPS WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDS THIS MORNING...THEN
MODIFIED TOWARDS HRRR AND HIRESW-ARW FOR LATE MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. MODIFIED TEMPERATURES WITH LATEST OBS AND COOL LATE
MORNING READINGS TOWARDS LAV. WITH WEST WINDS CREATING SOME
SUNSHINE...TWEAKED CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
MORE CHANGES AS DAY PROGRESSES. HAPPY 4TH OF JULY!


AS OF 430 AM EDT SATURDAY...

ESSENTIALLY THE SAME WEATHER FACTORS TO DEAL WITH AGAIN TODAY AS
IMPULSES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER TROF
OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A SURFACE FRONT WAVERING AROUND THROUGH THE
AREA. TODAYS ITERATION WILL SEE A SURFACE LOW PULLING OFF THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST WHICH SWINGS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK THROUGH THE
REGION AS A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDER TO THE REGION...BUT THE CONTINUED LACK OF
INSTABILITY INDICATES NO SEVERE FOR TODAY. SOME AREAS OF THE MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE REGION INTO THE GRAYSON HIGHLANDS RECEIVED 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES OF
RAIN YESTERDAY SO THEY ARE VULNERABLE TO HYDRO CONCERNS. HOWEVER...DO
NOT EXPECT COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION TO BE WIDESPREAD AWAY FROM THE
FRONT...AND THE FRONT SHOULD HAVE A BIT OF A PUSH TO IT TO KEEP THE
PRECIPITATION MOVING. THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY TO GENERATE
DEEP CONVECTION AND THE FACT THAT THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL
GET HUNG UP OVER OUR AREA SHOULD HELP LIMIT QPF AMOUNTS TODAY AND
MITIGATE ANY LARGE SCALE FLOOD THREAT SO DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE A FLOOD
WATCH WITH THIS PACKAGE. AS ALWAYS THIS SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY. THE FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MIDNIGHT WITH JUST SOME
LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE OVERNIGHT.

AFTER A CHILLY AND DAMP FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER AS WINDS BECOME WESTERLY AND WE GET SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY FROM THE LOW/MID 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
TO LOW/MID 70S WEST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 60S EAST TO LOWER 60S WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT SATURDAY...

MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
AND ITS SUBSEQUENT NORTHWARD DRIFT INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK. TAIL END OF LONG STANDING EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL BECOME
CUTOFF ACROSS NORTHERN GA/AL/EASTERN TN FROM THE PARENT UPPER
TROUGH...WHICH WILL SHEAR OUT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS A SHORT WAVE
RIDGE DRIFTS INTO THE OH VALLEY. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN DRIFT
SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO MON...FINALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION BY
TUESDAY AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH FROM GA IT TAKES ON A NEGATIVE
TILT...WHICH WILL FURTHER ENHANCE OVERALL WEAK DYNAMICS/LIFT AND
CERTAINLY PROLONG THE WET WEATHER PATTERN. ABUNDANT DEEP MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH PWATS IN THE 1.75 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. EXTENSIVE TO NEAR SOLID CLOUD COVER WILL
LIMIT HEATING...SO INSTABILITIES REMAIN MEAGER AND OVERALL
DYNAMICS ARE WEAK. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A LARGE SWATH
OF DEEP MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW...TRACKING FROM
GA/SC NORTHWARD INTO THE RNK CWA BY SUN AFTERNOON...DRIFTING INTO
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA MON...THEN FINALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST
OF THE CWA BY TUE. THIS WILL REQUIRE CONTINUATION OF LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS SAT-MON ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH A LIMITED
DIURNAL SWING GIVEN THE UPPER LOW ESSENTIALLY DRIFTING RIGHT
ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CWA.

THE PATH OF THE UPPER LOW SHOULD FOCUS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
WITH 3HR FFG VALUES AVERAGING IN THE 1.5 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA AND THE RECENT PROLONGED WET SPELL...WE WILL NEED
TO WATCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS CAREFULLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF ANY ORGANIZED OR STRONG CONVECTION...GIVEN
THE MEAGER LAPSE RATES AND LACK OF INSTABILITY/DYNAMICS...SHOULD
HOLD HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN CHECK. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING IN THE HWO...BUT NO FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA TUE...WE SHOULD SEE
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TO FINALLY REDUCE POPS TO JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE CATEGORY. DIURNAL CONVECTION BECOMES A BETTER BET
BY TUE AFTERNOON WITH EXPECTED GREATER INSOLATION THAN WE HAVE
SEEN IN QUITE SOME TIME. A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING
THE WESTERN AREAS BY LATE DAY...WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND LINEAR ORIENTED CONVECTION COULD
BE APPROACHING THE WV/SW VA COUNTIES BY EVENING.

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BE MINIMAL WITH LIMITED THUNDER.
SPC CURRENTLY JUST HAS GENERAL THUNDER THROUGH THE PERIOD AT THIS
TIME.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MON...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES TUESDAY WITH GREATER
INSOLATION. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGH PWATS/DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT SATURDAY...

WET WEATHER DESTINED TO CONTINUE. AFTER A VERY BRIEF RESPITE FROM
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TUESDAY...A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DRIFT
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST BY WED AND THEN BECOME ELONGATED
WEST-EAST ACROSS THE CWA AND STALL. WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO
OUR SOUTH AND WESTERLIES TO OUR NORTH...WE ARE DESTINED ONCE
AGAIN TO BE STUCK IN AN ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH NUMEROUS
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TRACKING FROM THE WESTERN U.S. TO THE EASTERN
U.S. SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR
INEVITABLE...WITH ONE WED AND ANOTHER ONE ON THU. UPPER FLOW
ATTEMPTS TO TRANSITION BACK TO NORTHWEST FLOW TOWARD THE WEEKEND
AS UPPER RIDING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS COULD
REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED CONVECTION/RAINFALL...BUT WILL
NONETHELESS KEEP US IN AN ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN.
THERE WOULD APPEAR TO BE A CONTINUED THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF ANTECEDENT VERY MOIST
CONDITIONS...AND AT LEAST A MINIMAL THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD.

WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE LEVELS CONTINUING...EXPECT
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT SATURDAY...

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
VALID PERIOD. SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW TO THE WEST OF THE REGION WILL
SPLIT...WITH PARENT TROUGH SHEARING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY
SUN...WHILE A WEAK CUTOFF DEVELOPS ALONG THE TAIL OF THE UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL
DRIFT NORTH INTO THE RNK CWA SUN-MON.

A FINAL WAVE OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL UPPER
LOW/TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT THIS
HOUR. THIS WILL LIKELY TAKE MUCH OF THE DAY TO TRANSLATE ACROSS
THE REGION ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM. ATTENDANT
CIGS WILL BE IFR THROUGH THE MORNING...IMPROVING TO MVFR BY
AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES GENERALLY IFR-MVFR THROUGH THE DAY.
DURING THE AFTERNOON...THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT MORE
TO THE SOUTH...SO PRECIPITATION COULD FINALLY COME TO AN END AT
LWB/BLF BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT MAY LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY AT
OTHER TAF SITES WITH GENERALLY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERNIGHT...THE
AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES...BUT ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL NOT DRIFT
BACK INTO THE CWA UNTIL AFT 12 SUN. HOWEVER...EXPECT WIDESPREAD
LOW CLOUDS/CIGS AND FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD IFR-
LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS.

NOT ADVERTISING ANY TSRA AT THIS TIME AS FEEL SUPPORT FOR SUCH
WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA TODAY.

WINDS BECOMING SW-W 5-7KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING
VRB03KT TO CALM OVERNIGHT...HELPING TO PROMOTE WIDESPREAD FOG/LOW
CLOUDS WITH VERY MOIST GROUND IN PLACE.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND
SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDOWS
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR VFR CONDITIONS INCREASE TUE. UPPER LOW/TROUGH
WILL LINGER WEST OF THE VA/NC COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN BEGIN TO DRIFT INTO NORTHERN VA
MON. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE OH VALLEY BY
WED. THIS LEAVES A VERY UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH
IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR-
VFR OUTSIDE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOONS. AT THIS
POINT...TUESDAY APPEARS TO OFFER THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/MBS
NEAR TERM...AMS/MBS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...KK/RAB
AVIATION...MBS/RAB



000
FXUS61 KRNK 041143
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
743 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING US ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. THEN...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...KEEPING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK...AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT SATURDAY...

ESSENTIALLY THE SAME WEATHER FACTORS TO DEAL WITH AGAIN TODAY AS
IMPULSES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER TROF
OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A SURFACE FRONT WAVERING AROUND THROUGH THE
AREA. TODAYS ITERATION WILL SEE A SURFACE LOW PULLING OFF THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST WHICH SWINGS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK THROUGH THE
REGION AS A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDER TO THE REGION...BUT THE CONTINUED LACK OF
INSTABILITY INDICATES NO SEVERE FOR TODAY. SOME AREAS OF THE MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE REGION INTO THE GRAYSON HIGHLANDS RECEIVED 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES OF
RAIN YESTERDAY SO THEY ARE VULNERABLE TO HYDRO CONCERNS. HOWEVER...DO
NOT EXPECT COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION TO BE WIDESPREAD AWAY FROM THE
FRONT...AND THE FRONT SHOULD HAVE A BIT OF A PUSH TO IT TO KEEP THE
PRECIPITATION MOVING. THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY TO GENERATE
DEEP CONVECTION AND THE FACT THAT THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL
GET HUNG UP OVER OUR AREA SHOULD HELP LIMIT QPF AMOUNTS TODAY AND
MITIGATE ANY LARGE SCALE FLOOD THREAT SO DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE A FLOOD
WATCH WITH THIS PACKAGE. AS ALWAYS THIS SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY. THE FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MIDNIGHT WITH JUST SOME
LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE OVERNIGHT.

AFTER A CHILLY AND DAMP FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER AS WINDS BECOME WESTERLY AND WE GET SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY FROM THE LOW/MID 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
TO LOW/MID 70S WEST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 60S EAST TO LOWER 60S WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT SATURDAY...

MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
AND ITS SUBSEQUENT NORTHWARD DRIFT INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK. TAIL END OF LONG STANDING EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL BECOME
CUTOFF ACROSS NORTHERN GA/AL/EASTERN TN FROM THE PARENT UPPER
TROUGH...WHICH WILL SHEAR OUT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS A SHORT WAVE
RIDGE DRIFTS INTO THE OH VALLEY. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN DRIFT
SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO MON...FINALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION BY
TUESDAY AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH FROM GA IT TAKES ON A NEGATIVE
TILT...WHICH WILL FURTHER ENHANCE OVERALL WEAK DYNAMICS/LIFT AND
CERTAINLY PROLONG THE WET WEATHER PATTERN. ABUNDANT DEEP MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH PWATS IN THE 1.75 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. EXTENSIVE TO NEAR SOLID CLOUD COVER WILL
LIMIT HEATING...SO INSTABILITIES REMAIN MEAGER AND OVERALL
DYNAMICS ARE WEAK. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A LARGE SWATH
OF DEEP MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW...TRACKING FROM
GA/SC NORTHWARD INTO THE RNK CWA BY SUN AFTERNOON...DRIFTING INTO
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA MON...THEN FINALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST
OF THE CWA BY TUE. THIS WILL REQUIRE CONTINUATION OF LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS SAT-MON ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH A LIMITED
DIURNAL SWING GIVEN THE UPPER LOW ESSENTIALLY DRIFTING RIGHT
ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CWA.

THE PATH OF THE UPPER LOW SHOULD FOCUS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
WITH 3HR FFG VALUES AVERAGING IN THE 1.5 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA AND THE RECENT PROLONGED WET SPELL...WE WILL NEED
TO WATCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS CAREFULLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF ANY ORGANIZED OR STRONG CONVECTION...GIVEN
THE MEAGER LAPSE RATES AND LACK OF INSTABILITY/DYNAMICS...SHOULD
HOLD HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN CHECK. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING IN THE HWO...BUT NO FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA TUE...WE SHOULD SEE
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TO FINALLY REDUCE POPS TO JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE CATEGORY. DIURNAL CONVECTION BECOMES A BETTER BET
BY TUE AFTERNOON WITH EXPECTED GREATER INSOLATION THAN WE HAVE
SEEN IN QUITE SOME TIME. A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING
THE WESTERN AREAS BY LATE DAY...WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND LINEAR ORIENTED CONVECTION COULD
BE APPROACHING THE WV/SW VA COUNTIES BY EVENING.

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BE MINIMAL WITH LIMITED THUNDER.
SPC CURRENTLY JUST HAS GENERAL THUNDER THROUGH THE PERIOD AT THIS
TIME.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MON...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES TUESDAY WITH GREATER
INSOLATION. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGH PWATS/DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT SATURDAY...

WET WEATHER DESTINED TO CONTINUE. AFTER A VERY BRIEF RESPITE FROM
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TUESDAY...A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DRIFT
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST BY WED AND THEN BECOME ELONGATED
WEST-EAST ACROSS THE CWA AND STALL. WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO
OUR SOUTH AND WESTERLIES TO OUR NORTH...WE ARE DESTINED ONCE
AGAIN TO BE STUCK IN AN ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH NUMEROUS
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TRACKING FROM THE WESTERN U.S. TO THE EASTERN
U.S. SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR
INEVITABLE...WITH ONE WED AND ANOTHER ONE ON THU. UPPER FLOW
ATTEMPTS TO TRANSITION BACK TO NORTHWEST FLOW TOWARD THE WEEKEND
AS UPPER RIDING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS COULD
REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED CONVECTION/RAINFALL...BUT WILL
NONETHELESS KEEP US IN AN ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN.
THERE WOULD APPEAR TO BE A CONTINUED THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF ANTECEDENT VERY MOIST
CONDITIONS...AND AT LEAST A MINIMAL THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD.

WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE LEVELS CONTINUING...EXPECT
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT SATURDAY...

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
VALID PERIOD. SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW TO THE WEST OF THE REGION WILL
SPLIT...WITH PARENT TROUGH SHEARING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY
SUN...WHILE A WEAK CUTOFF DEVELOPS ALONG THE TAIL OF THE UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL
DRIFT NORTH INTO THE RNK CWA SUN-MON.

A FINAL WAVE OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL UPPER
LOW/TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT THIS
HOUR. THIS WILL LIKELY TAKE MUCH OF THE DAY TO TRANSLATE ACROSS
THE REGION ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM. ATTENDANT
CIGS WILL BE IFR THROUGH THE MORNING...IMPROVING TO MVFR BY
AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES GENERALLY IFR-MVFR THROUGH THE DAY.
DURING THE AFTERNOON...THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT MORE
TO THE SOUTH...SO PRECIPITATION COULD FINALLY COME TO AN END AT
LWB/BLF BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT MAY LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY AT
OTHER TAF SITES WITH GENERALLY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERNIGHT...THE
AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES...BUT ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL NOT DRIFT
BACK INTO THE CWA UNTIL AFT 12 SUN. HOWEVER...EXPECT WIDESPREAD
LOW CLOUDS/CIGS AND FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD IFR-
LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS.

NOT ADVERTISING ANY TSRA AT THIS TIME AS FEEL SUPPORT FOR SUCH
WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA TODAY.

WINDS BECOMING SW-W 5-7KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING
VRB03KT TO CALM OVERNIGHT...HELPING TO PROMOTE WIDESPREAD FOG/LOW
CLOUDS WITH VERY MOIST GROUND IN PLACE.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND
SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDOWS
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR VFR CONDITIONS INCREASE TUE. UPPER LOW/TROUGH
WILL LINGER WEST OF THE VA/NC COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN BEGIN TO DRIFT INTO NORTHERN VA
MON. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE OH VALLEY BY
WED. THIS LEAVES A VERY UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH
IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR-
VFR OUTSIDE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOONS. AT THIS
POINT...TUESDAY APPEARS TO OFFER THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...AMS/MBS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...KK/RAB
AVIATION...MBS/RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 041143
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
743 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING US ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. THEN...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...KEEPING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK...AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT SATURDAY...

ESSENTIALLY THE SAME WEATHER FACTORS TO DEAL WITH AGAIN TODAY AS
IMPULSES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER TROF
OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A SURFACE FRONT WAVERING AROUND THROUGH THE
AREA. TODAYS ITERATION WILL SEE A SURFACE LOW PULLING OFF THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST WHICH SWINGS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK THROUGH THE
REGION AS A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDER TO THE REGION...BUT THE CONTINUED LACK OF
INSTABILITY INDICATES NO SEVERE FOR TODAY. SOME AREAS OF THE MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE REGION INTO THE GRAYSON HIGHLANDS RECEIVED 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES OF
RAIN YESTERDAY SO THEY ARE VULNERABLE TO HYDRO CONCERNS. HOWEVER...DO
NOT EXPECT COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION TO BE WIDESPREAD AWAY FROM THE
FRONT...AND THE FRONT SHOULD HAVE A BIT OF A PUSH TO IT TO KEEP THE
PRECIPITATION MOVING. THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY TO GENERATE
DEEP CONVECTION AND THE FACT THAT THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL
GET HUNG UP OVER OUR AREA SHOULD HELP LIMIT QPF AMOUNTS TODAY AND
MITIGATE ANY LARGE SCALE FLOOD THREAT SO DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE A FLOOD
WATCH WITH THIS PACKAGE. AS ALWAYS THIS SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY. THE FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MIDNIGHT WITH JUST SOME
LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE OVERNIGHT.

AFTER A CHILLY AND DAMP FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER AS WINDS BECOME WESTERLY AND WE GET SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY FROM THE LOW/MID 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
TO LOW/MID 70S WEST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 60S EAST TO LOWER 60S WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT SATURDAY...

MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
AND ITS SUBSEQUENT NORTHWARD DRIFT INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK. TAIL END OF LONG STANDING EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL BECOME
CUTOFF ACROSS NORTHERN GA/AL/EASTERN TN FROM THE PARENT UPPER
TROUGH...WHICH WILL SHEAR OUT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS A SHORT WAVE
RIDGE DRIFTS INTO THE OH VALLEY. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN DRIFT
SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO MON...FINALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION BY
TUESDAY AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH FROM GA IT TAKES ON A NEGATIVE
TILT...WHICH WILL FURTHER ENHANCE OVERALL WEAK DYNAMICS/LIFT AND
CERTAINLY PROLONG THE WET WEATHER PATTERN. ABUNDANT DEEP MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH PWATS IN THE 1.75 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. EXTENSIVE TO NEAR SOLID CLOUD COVER WILL
LIMIT HEATING...SO INSTABILITIES REMAIN MEAGER AND OVERALL
DYNAMICS ARE WEAK. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A LARGE SWATH
OF DEEP MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW...TRACKING FROM
GA/SC NORTHWARD INTO THE RNK CWA BY SUN AFTERNOON...DRIFTING INTO
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA MON...THEN FINALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST
OF THE CWA BY TUE. THIS WILL REQUIRE CONTINUATION OF LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS SAT-MON ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH A LIMITED
DIURNAL SWING GIVEN THE UPPER LOW ESSENTIALLY DRIFTING RIGHT
ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CWA.

THE PATH OF THE UPPER LOW SHOULD FOCUS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
WITH 3HR FFG VALUES AVERAGING IN THE 1.5 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA AND THE RECENT PROLONGED WET SPELL...WE WILL NEED
TO WATCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS CAREFULLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF ANY ORGANIZED OR STRONG CONVECTION...GIVEN
THE MEAGER LAPSE RATES AND LACK OF INSTABILITY/DYNAMICS...SHOULD
HOLD HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN CHECK. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING IN THE HWO...BUT NO FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA TUE...WE SHOULD SEE
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TO FINALLY REDUCE POPS TO JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE CATEGORY. DIURNAL CONVECTION BECOMES A BETTER BET
BY TUE AFTERNOON WITH EXPECTED GREATER INSOLATION THAN WE HAVE
SEEN IN QUITE SOME TIME. A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING
THE WESTERN AREAS BY LATE DAY...WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND LINEAR ORIENTED CONVECTION COULD
BE APPROACHING THE WV/SW VA COUNTIES BY EVENING.

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BE MINIMAL WITH LIMITED THUNDER.
SPC CURRENTLY JUST HAS GENERAL THUNDER THROUGH THE PERIOD AT THIS
TIME.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MON...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES TUESDAY WITH GREATER
INSOLATION. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGH PWATS/DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT SATURDAY...

WET WEATHER DESTINED TO CONTINUE. AFTER A VERY BRIEF RESPITE FROM
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TUESDAY...A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DRIFT
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST BY WED AND THEN BECOME ELONGATED
WEST-EAST ACROSS THE CWA AND STALL. WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO
OUR SOUTH AND WESTERLIES TO OUR NORTH...WE ARE DESTINED ONCE
AGAIN TO BE STUCK IN AN ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH NUMEROUS
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TRACKING FROM THE WESTERN U.S. TO THE EASTERN
U.S. SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR
INEVITABLE...WITH ONE WED AND ANOTHER ONE ON THU. UPPER FLOW
ATTEMPTS TO TRANSITION BACK TO NORTHWEST FLOW TOWARD THE WEEKEND
AS UPPER RIDING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS COULD
REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED CONVECTION/RAINFALL...BUT WILL
NONETHELESS KEEP US IN AN ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN.
THERE WOULD APPEAR TO BE A CONTINUED THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF ANTECEDENT VERY MOIST
CONDITIONS...AND AT LEAST A MINIMAL THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD.

WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE LEVELS CONTINUING...EXPECT
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT SATURDAY...

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
VALID PERIOD. SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW TO THE WEST OF THE REGION WILL
SPLIT...WITH PARENT TROUGH SHEARING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY
SUN...WHILE A WEAK CUTOFF DEVELOPS ALONG THE TAIL OF THE UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL
DRIFT NORTH INTO THE RNK CWA SUN-MON.

A FINAL WAVE OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL UPPER
LOW/TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT THIS
HOUR. THIS WILL LIKELY TAKE MUCH OF THE DAY TO TRANSLATE ACROSS
THE REGION ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM. ATTENDANT
CIGS WILL BE IFR THROUGH THE MORNING...IMPROVING TO MVFR BY
AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES GENERALLY IFR-MVFR THROUGH THE DAY.
DURING THE AFTERNOON...THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT MORE
TO THE SOUTH...SO PRECIPITATION COULD FINALLY COME TO AN END AT
LWB/BLF BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT MAY LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY AT
OTHER TAF SITES WITH GENERALLY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERNIGHT...THE
AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES...BUT ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL NOT DRIFT
BACK INTO THE CWA UNTIL AFT 12 SUN. HOWEVER...EXPECT WIDESPREAD
LOW CLOUDS/CIGS AND FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD IFR-
LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS.

NOT ADVERTISING ANY TSRA AT THIS TIME AS FEEL SUPPORT FOR SUCH
WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA TODAY.

WINDS BECOMING SW-W 5-7KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING
VRB03KT TO CALM OVERNIGHT...HELPING TO PROMOTE WIDESPREAD FOG/LOW
CLOUDS WITH VERY MOIST GROUND IN PLACE.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND
SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDOWS
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR VFR CONDITIONS INCREASE TUE. UPPER LOW/TROUGH
WILL LINGER WEST OF THE VA/NC COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN BEGIN TO DRIFT INTO NORTHERN VA
MON. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE OH VALLEY BY
WED. THIS LEAVES A VERY UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH
IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR-
VFR OUTSIDE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOONS. AT THIS
POINT...TUESDAY APPEARS TO OFFER THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...AMS/MBS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...KK/RAB
AVIATION...MBS/RAB



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 041130
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
730 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AREA OF SHRAS CONTG TO MOVE THROUGH ERN VA/PORTIONS OF LWR MD ERN
SHORE NEXT FEW HRS. SFC WARM FNT FM ABT THE LWR CHES BAY ON W
THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE PDMNT IN CNTRL VA ATTM...AND WILL CONT TO
MAKE SLO PROGRESS LIFTING NE OF THE RGN THROUGH MID/LT MRNG HRS.
WK SFC LO PRES WILL BE TRACKING THROUGH NRN VA TO OFF THE CNTRL
DELMARVA BY THIS AFTN. FNTL BNDRY WILL AGN SETTLE S INTO CNTRL/SRN
VA LT TDA. WILL HAVE CHC POPS (MNLY 30-40%) INTO THE THIS
AFTN...HIGHEST N AND W PORTIONS OF FA. MORE WIDESPREAD SHRAS/TSTMS
XPCD LT TDA AS THE BNDRY FM THE N PUSHES S AND COMBINES W/ DAYTIME
HEATING. ANOTHER RND OF MDT/HVY RA PSBL...ESP IN SCNTRL AND/OR SE
VA/NE NC (SOME OF THESE AREAS RECEIVED 1-3 INCHES FRI EVE). NOT
CONSIDERING ANY FLOOD WATCHES ATTM...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
TRENDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ADDITIONAL AVG QPF OF 1/2 INCH FM
CNTRL TO SRN VA...W/ LCLLY HIGHER AMTS (1-2 INCHES) PSBL. VRB
CLDS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TDA. HI TEMPS FM THE U70S-L80S N AND NW TO
THE U80S-ARND 90F S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
FNTL BNDRY STALLS INVOF VA/NC BORDER TNGT...THEN BEGINS TO MOVE
BACK N ONCE AGN LT SUN INTO MON AS LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE FM
THE GULF STATES TO THE CNTRL MTNS. THERE RMN SOME MDL
INCONSISTENCIES IN THIS SCENERIO...LARGELY RELATING TO TIMING AND
WHERE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF TAKES PLACE.

LINGERING SHRAS/TSTMS TNGT FAR SRN VA/NE NC WHILE DRYING OCCURS
OVR NNE PORTIONS OF THE FA (ESP AFT MDNGT). THE FAVORED AREA OF
ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS ON SUN LIKELY TO BE FM SCNTRL VA TO FAR SE
VA/NE NC INVOF STALLED FNTL BNDRY. MOSTLY CLOUDY S...PARTLY CLOUDY
NE TNGT THROUGH SUN. LO TEMPS FM THE M/U60S N TO THE U60S- L70S S.
HI TEMPS SUN MNLY IN THE L/M80S.

00Z/06 NAM FARTHER W W/ AXIS OF SGFNT PCPN SUN NGT INTO MON AS LO
PRES MOVES INTO THE CNTRL MTNS. WILL HAVE POPS GRADUALLY INCRSG
INTO CNTRL/INTERIOR ERN VA INTO MON...WHILE KEEPING POPS LWR AT
MUCH OF THE CST. MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB
CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH MON XPCD TO AVG 1-1.5 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL
VA TO INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF ABT 1/2 INCH OVR THE
LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL
DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR REPEATING
SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY CONTINUED LOW AMPLITUDE
UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH GRADUAL RE-REEMERGENCE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT THAT WITH OCCASIONAL UPPER
DISTURBANCES/PERTURBATIONS PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC,
AS WEAK SFC TROUGH PERSISTS IN PLACE OVERHEAD, MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHC
RANGE BY DAY (NEAR CLIMO NORMS), W/ SLIGHT CHC OR LESS OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST PW VALUES WILL ALSO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD...LINGERING AROUND +2 S.D. ABOVE NORMAL. ACCORDINGLY, WE`LL
NEED TO BE ON GUARD FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, WITH THIS INCREASED HUMIDITY/DEWPOINTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD, CONTINUED TO RIDE ON THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE WITH
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...GENERALLY FAVORING A TYPICAL
MID-JULY WARM/MODERATELY HUMID SET UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 INLAND,
WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS 65 TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARM FRNTL BNDRY WILL LIFT JUST N OF THE REGION BY ARND MIDDAY...AS
LO PRES MOVES NNE FM SE VA TO JUST OFF THE DE/MD CST. THAT LO WILL
THEN TRACK NE OUT TO SEA THIS AFTN INTO SUN MORNG...PULLING THAT
BNDRY BACK S INTO NRN NC AS A COLD FRONT. SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO SUN MORNG...WITH THE BEST
CHCS SHIFTING FM THE ENTIRE REGION THIS MORNG...SWRD INTO SRN VA
AND NRN/NE NC THIS EVENG INTO SUN MORNG. EXPECT MAINLY VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS ACRS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE TIME...WITH IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT ANY TAF SITE THRU SUN MORNG...ESPLY DURING
THE MORNG HRS.

&&

.MARINE...
WSW GUSTS HAVE BEEN TO 20-25 KTS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY
FM ARND 0930Z THIS MORNG...AND WILL CALM DOWN TO MORE LIKE 15-20
KT GUSTS BY 13Z. SO...SINCE THIS WILL ONLY LAST ABT 3 HRS...HAVE
NOT ISSUED A SCA...AND HAVE WINDS AT 15 KT FOR THE FCST.

NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU SUN NGT. UNSETTLED WX
CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
FRNTL BNDRY WAS LIFTING N ACRS THE WTRS EARLY THIS MORNG...AND
WILL LIFT JUST N OF THE AREA BY ARND MIDDAY AS LO PRES MOVES NNE
OFF THE DE/MD CST. WINDS WILL SHIFT FM THE ESE OVR THE LWR MD AND
VA ERN SHR...TO THE SW OR W DURING THIS MORNG TO ARND MIDDAY. THE
FRONT WILL THEN DROP BACK S OF THE AREA THIS EVENG INTO SUN
MORNG...AS SFC LO TRACKS NE OUT TO SEA. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT...SEAS
2-3 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/ESS
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 041130
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
730 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AREA OF SHRAS CONTG TO MOVE THROUGH ERN VA/PORTIONS OF LWR MD ERN
SHORE NEXT FEW HRS. SFC WARM FNT FM ABT THE LWR CHES BAY ON W
THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE PDMNT IN CNTRL VA ATTM...AND WILL CONT TO
MAKE SLO PROGRESS LIFTING NE OF THE RGN THROUGH MID/LT MRNG HRS.
WK SFC LO PRES WILL BE TRACKING THROUGH NRN VA TO OFF THE CNTRL
DELMARVA BY THIS AFTN. FNTL BNDRY WILL AGN SETTLE S INTO CNTRL/SRN
VA LT TDA. WILL HAVE CHC POPS (MNLY 30-40%) INTO THE THIS
AFTN...HIGHEST N AND W PORTIONS OF FA. MORE WIDESPREAD SHRAS/TSTMS
XPCD LT TDA AS THE BNDRY FM THE N PUSHES S AND COMBINES W/ DAYTIME
HEATING. ANOTHER RND OF MDT/HVY RA PSBL...ESP IN SCNTRL AND/OR SE
VA/NE NC (SOME OF THESE AREAS RECEIVED 1-3 INCHES FRI EVE). NOT
CONSIDERING ANY FLOOD WATCHES ATTM...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
TRENDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ADDITIONAL AVG QPF OF 1/2 INCH FM
CNTRL TO SRN VA...W/ LCLLY HIGHER AMTS (1-2 INCHES) PSBL. VRB
CLDS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TDA. HI TEMPS FM THE U70S-L80S N AND NW TO
THE U80S-ARND 90F S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
FNTL BNDRY STALLS INVOF VA/NC BORDER TNGT...THEN BEGINS TO MOVE
BACK N ONCE AGN LT SUN INTO MON AS LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE FM
THE GULF STATES TO THE CNTRL MTNS. THERE RMN SOME MDL
INCONSISTENCIES IN THIS SCENERIO...LARGELY RELATING TO TIMING AND
WHERE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF TAKES PLACE.

LINGERING SHRAS/TSTMS TNGT FAR SRN VA/NE NC WHILE DRYING OCCURS
OVR NNE PORTIONS OF THE FA (ESP AFT MDNGT). THE FAVORED AREA OF
ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS ON SUN LIKELY TO BE FM SCNTRL VA TO FAR SE
VA/NE NC INVOF STALLED FNTL BNDRY. MOSTLY CLOUDY S...PARTLY CLOUDY
NE TNGT THROUGH SUN. LO TEMPS FM THE M/U60S N TO THE U60S- L70S S.
HI TEMPS SUN MNLY IN THE L/M80S.

00Z/06 NAM FARTHER W W/ AXIS OF SGFNT PCPN SUN NGT INTO MON AS LO
PRES MOVES INTO THE CNTRL MTNS. WILL HAVE POPS GRADUALLY INCRSG
INTO CNTRL/INTERIOR ERN VA INTO MON...WHILE KEEPING POPS LWR AT
MUCH OF THE CST. MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB
CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH MON XPCD TO AVG 1-1.5 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL
VA TO INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF ABT 1/2 INCH OVR THE
LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL
DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR REPEATING
SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY CONTINUED LOW AMPLITUDE
UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH GRADUAL RE-REEMERGENCE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT THAT WITH OCCASIONAL UPPER
DISTURBANCES/PERTURBATIONS PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC,
AS WEAK SFC TROUGH PERSISTS IN PLACE OVERHEAD, MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHC
RANGE BY DAY (NEAR CLIMO NORMS), W/ SLIGHT CHC OR LESS OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST PW VALUES WILL ALSO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD...LINGERING AROUND +2 S.D. ABOVE NORMAL. ACCORDINGLY, WE`LL
NEED TO BE ON GUARD FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, WITH THIS INCREASED HUMIDITY/DEWPOINTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD, CONTINUED TO RIDE ON THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE WITH
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...GENERALLY FAVORING A TYPICAL
MID-JULY WARM/MODERATELY HUMID SET UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 INLAND,
WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS 65 TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARM FRNTL BNDRY WILL LIFT JUST N OF THE REGION BY ARND MIDDAY...AS
LO PRES MOVES NNE FM SE VA TO JUST OFF THE DE/MD CST. THAT LO WILL
THEN TRACK NE OUT TO SEA THIS AFTN INTO SUN MORNG...PULLING THAT
BNDRY BACK S INTO NRN NC AS A COLD FRONT. SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO SUN MORNG...WITH THE BEST
CHCS SHIFTING FM THE ENTIRE REGION THIS MORNG...SWRD INTO SRN VA
AND NRN/NE NC THIS EVENG INTO SUN MORNG. EXPECT MAINLY VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS ACRS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE TIME...WITH IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT ANY TAF SITE THRU SUN MORNG...ESPLY DURING
THE MORNG HRS.

&&

.MARINE...
WSW GUSTS HAVE BEEN TO 20-25 KTS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY
FM ARND 0930Z THIS MORNG...AND WILL CALM DOWN TO MORE LIKE 15-20
KT GUSTS BY 13Z. SO...SINCE THIS WILL ONLY LAST ABT 3 HRS...HAVE
NOT ISSUED A SCA...AND HAVE WINDS AT 15 KT FOR THE FCST.

NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU SUN NGT. UNSETTLED WX
CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
FRNTL BNDRY WAS LIFTING N ACRS THE WTRS EARLY THIS MORNG...AND
WILL LIFT JUST N OF THE AREA BY ARND MIDDAY AS LO PRES MOVES NNE
OFF THE DE/MD CST. WINDS WILL SHIFT FM THE ESE OVR THE LWR MD AND
VA ERN SHR...TO THE SW OR W DURING THIS MORNG TO ARND MIDDAY. THE
FRONT WILL THEN DROP BACK S OF THE AREA THIS EVENG INTO SUN
MORNG...AS SFC LO TRACKS NE OUT TO SEA. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT...SEAS
2-3 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/ESS
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 041130
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
730 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AREA OF SHRAS CONTG TO MOVE THROUGH ERN VA/PORTIONS OF LWR MD ERN
SHORE NEXT FEW HRS. SFC WARM FNT FM ABT THE LWR CHES BAY ON W
THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE PDMNT IN CNTRL VA ATTM...AND WILL CONT TO
MAKE SLO PROGRESS LIFTING NE OF THE RGN THROUGH MID/LT MRNG HRS.
WK SFC LO PRES WILL BE TRACKING THROUGH NRN VA TO OFF THE CNTRL
DELMARVA BY THIS AFTN. FNTL BNDRY WILL AGN SETTLE S INTO CNTRL/SRN
VA LT TDA. WILL HAVE CHC POPS (MNLY 30-40%) INTO THE THIS
AFTN...HIGHEST N AND W PORTIONS OF FA. MORE WIDESPREAD SHRAS/TSTMS
XPCD LT TDA AS THE BNDRY FM THE N PUSHES S AND COMBINES W/ DAYTIME
HEATING. ANOTHER RND OF MDT/HVY RA PSBL...ESP IN SCNTRL AND/OR SE
VA/NE NC (SOME OF THESE AREAS RECEIVED 1-3 INCHES FRI EVE). NOT
CONSIDERING ANY FLOOD WATCHES ATTM...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
TRENDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ADDITIONAL AVG QPF OF 1/2 INCH FM
CNTRL TO SRN VA...W/ LCLLY HIGHER AMTS (1-2 INCHES) PSBL. VRB
CLDS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TDA. HI TEMPS FM THE U70S-L80S N AND NW TO
THE U80S-ARND 90F S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
FNTL BNDRY STALLS INVOF VA/NC BORDER TNGT...THEN BEGINS TO MOVE
BACK N ONCE AGN LT SUN INTO MON AS LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE FM
THE GULF STATES TO THE CNTRL MTNS. THERE RMN SOME MDL
INCONSISTENCIES IN THIS SCENERIO...LARGELY RELATING TO TIMING AND
WHERE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF TAKES PLACE.

LINGERING SHRAS/TSTMS TNGT FAR SRN VA/NE NC WHILE DRYING OCCURS
OVR NNE PORTIONS OF THE FA (ESP AFT MDNGT). THE FAVORED AREA OF
ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS ON SUN LIKELY TO BE FM SCNTRL VA TO FAR SE
VA/NE NC INVOF STALLED FNTL BNDRY. MOSTLY CLOUDY S...PARTLY CLOUDY
NE TNGT THROUGH SUN. LO TEMPS FM THE M/U60S N TO THE U60S- L70S S.
HI TEMPS SUN MNLY IN THE L/M80S.

00Z/06 NAM FARTHER W W/ AXIS OF SGFNT PCPN SUN NGT INTO MON AS LO
PRES MOVES INTO THE CNTRL MTNS. WILL HAVE POPS GRADUALLY INCRSG
INTO CNTRL/INTERIOR ERN VA INTO MON...WHILE KEEPING POPS LWR AT
MUCH OF THE CST. MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB
CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH MON XPCD TO AVG 1-1.5 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL
VA TO INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF ABT 1/2 INCH OVR THE
LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL
DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR REPEATING
SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY CONTINUED LOW AMPLITUDE
UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH GRADUAL RE-REEMERGENCE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT THAT WITH OCCASIONAL UPPER
DISTURBANCES/PERTURBATIONS PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC,
AS WEAK SFC TROUGH PERSISTS IN PLACE OVERHEAD, MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHC
RANGE BY DAY (NEAR CLIMO NORMS), W/ SLIGHT CHC OR LESS OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST PW VALUES WILL ALSO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD...LINGERING AROUND +2 S.D. ABOVE NORMAL. ACCORDINGLY, WE`LL
NEED TO BE ON GUARD FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, WITH THIS INCREASED HUMIDITY/DEWPOINTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD, CONTINUED TO RIDE ON THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE WITH
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...GENERALLY FAVORING A TYPICAL
MID-JULY WARM/MODERATELY HUMID SET UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 INLAND,
WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS 65 TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARM FRNTL BNDRY WILL LIFT JUST N OF THE REGION BY ARND MIDDAY...AS
LO PRES MOVES NNE FM SE VA TO JUST OFF THE DE/MD CST. THAT LO WILL
THEN TRACK NE OUT TO SEA THIS AFTN INTO SUN MORNG...PULLING THAT
BNDRY BACK S INTO NRN NC AS A COLD FRONT. SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO SUN MORNG...WITH THE BEST
CHCS SHIFTING FM THE ENTIRE REGION THIS MORNG...SWRD INTO SRN VA
AND NRN/NE NC THIS EVENG INTO SUN MORNG. EXPECT MAINLY VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS ACRS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE TIME...WITH IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT ANY TAF SITE THRU SUN MORNG...ESPLY DURING
THE MORNG HRS.

&&

.MARINE...
WSW GUSTS HAVE BEEN TO 20-25 KTS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY
FM ARND 0930Z THIS MORNG...AND WILL CALM DOWN TO MORE LIKE 15-20
KT GUSTS BY 13Z. SO...SINCE THIS WILL ONLY LAST ABT 3 HRS...HAVE
NOT ISSUED A SCA...AND HAVE WINDS AT 15 KT FOR THE FCST.

NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU SUN NGT. UNSETTLED WX
CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
FRNTL BNDRY WAS LIFTING N ACRS THE WTRS EARLY THIS MORNG...AND
WILL LIFT JUST N OF THE AREA BY ARND MIDDAY AS LO PRES MOVES NNE
OFF THE DE/MD CST. WINDS WILL SHIFT FM THE ESE OVR THE LWR MD AND
VA ERN SHR...TO THE SW OR W DURING THIS MORNG TO ARND MIDDAY. THE
FRONT WILL THEN DROP BACK S OF THE AREA THIS EVENG INTO SUN
MORNG...AS SFC LO TRACKS NE OUT TO SEA. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT...SEAS
2-3 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/ESS
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 041130
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
730 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AREA OF SHRAS CONTG TO MOVE THROUGH ERN VA/PORTIONS OF LWR MD ERN
SHORE NEXT FEW HRS. SFC WARM FNT FM ABT THE LWR CHES BAY ON W
THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE PDMNT IN CNTRL VA ATTM...AND WILL CONT TO
MAKE SLO PROGRESS LIFTING NE OF THE RGN THROUGH MID/LT MRNG HRS.
WK SFC LO PRES WILL BE TRACKING THROUGH NRN VA TO OFF THE CNTRL
DELMARVA BY THIS AFTN. FNTL BNDRY WILL AGN SETTLE S INTO CNTRL/SRN
VA LT TDA. WILL HAVE CHC POPS (MNLY 30-40%) INTO THE THIS
AFTN...HIGHEST N AND W PORTIONS OF FA. MORE WIDESPREAD SHRAS/TSTMS
XPCD LT TDA AS THE BNDRY FM THE N PUSHES S AND COMBINES W/ DAYTIME
HEATING. ANOTHER RND OF MDT/HVY RA PSBL...ESP IN SCNTRL AND/OR SE
VA/NE NC (SOME OF THESE AREAS RECEIVED 1-3 INCHES FRI EVE). NOT
CONSIDERING ANY FLOOD WATCHES ATTM...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
TRENDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ADDITIONAL AVG QPF OF 1/2 INCH FM
CNTRL TO SRN VA...W/ LCLLY HIGHER AMTS (1-2 INCHES) PSBL. VRB
CLDS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TDA. HI TEMPS FM THE U70S-L80S N AND NW TO
THE U80S-ARND 90F S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
FNTL BNDRY STALLS INVOF VA/NC BORDER TNGT...THEN BEGINS TO MOVE
BACK N ONCE AGN LT SUN INTO MON AS LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE FM
THE GULF STATES TO THE CNTRL MTNS. THERE RMN SOME MDL
INCONSISTENCIES IN THIS SCENERIO...LARGELY RELATING TO TIMING AND
WHERE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF TAKES PLACE.

LINGERING SHRAS/TSTMS TNGT FAR SRN VA/NE NC WHILE DRYING OCCURS
OVR NNE PORTIONS OF THE FA (ESP AFT MDNGT). THE FAVORED AREA OF
ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS ON SUN LIKELY TO BE FM SCNTRL VA TO FAR SE
VA/NE NC INVOF STALLED FNTL BNDRY. MOSTLY CLOUDY S...PARTLY CLOUDY
NE TNGT THROUGH SUN. LO TEMPS FM THE M/U60S N TO THE U60S- L70S S.
HI TEMPS SUN MNLY IN THE L/M80S.

00Z/06 NAM FARTHER W W/ AXIS OF SGFNT PCPN SUN NGT INTO MON AS LO
PRES MOVES INTO THE CNTRL MTNS. WILL HAVE POPS GRADUALLY INCRSG
INTO CNTRL/INTERIOR ERN VA INTO MON...WHILE KEEPING POPS LWR AT
MUCH OF THE CST. MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB
CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH MON XPCD TO AVG 1-1.5 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL
VA TO INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF ABT 1/2 INCH OVR THE
LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL
DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR REPEATING
SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY CONTINUED LOW AMPLITUDE
UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH GRADUAL RE-REEMERGENCE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT THAT WITH OCCASIONAL UPPER
DISTURBANCES/PERTURBATIONS PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC,
AS WEAK SFC TROUGH PERSISTS IN PLACE OVERHEAD, MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHC
RANGE BY DAY (NEAR CLIMO NORMS), W/ SLIGHT CHC OR LESS OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST PW VALUES WILL ALSO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD...LINGERING AROUND +2 S.D. ABOVE NORMAL. ACCORDINGLY, WE`LL
NEED TO BE ON GUARD FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, WITH THIS INCREASED HUMIDITY/DEWPOINTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD, CONTINUED TO RIDE ON THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE WITH
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...GENERALLY FAVORING A TYPICAL
MID-JULY WARM/MODERATELY HUMID SET UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 INLAND,
WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS 65 TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARM FRNTL BNDRY WILL LIFT JUST N OF THE REGION BY ARND MIDDAY...AS
LO PRES MOVES NNE FM SE VA TO JUST OFF THE DE/MD CST. THAT LO WILL
THEN TRACK NE OUT TO SEA THIS AFTN INTO SUN MORNG...PULLING THAT
BNDRY BACK S INTO NRN NC AS A COLD FRONT. SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO SUN MORNG...WITH THE BEST
CHCS SHIFTING FM THE ENTIRE REGION THIS MORNG...SWRD INTO SRN VA
AND NRN/NE NC THIS EVENG INTO SUN MORNG. EXPECT MAINLY VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS ACRS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE TIME...WITH IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT ANY TAF SITE THRU SUN MORNG...ESPLY DURING
THE MORNG HRS.

&&

.MARINE...
WSW GUSTS HAVE BEEN TO 20-25 KTS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY
FM ARND 0930Z THIS MORNG...AND WILL CALM DOWN TO MORE LIKE 15-20
KT GUSTS BY 13Z. SO...SINCE THIS WILL ONLY LAST ABT 3 HRS...HAVE
NOT ISSUED A SCA...AND HAVE WINDS AT 15 KT FOR THE FCST.

NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU SUN NGT. UNSETTLED WX
CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
FRNTL BNDRY WAS LIFTING N ACRS THE WTRS EARLY THIS MORNG...AND
WILL LIFT JUST N OF THE AREA BY ARND MIDDAY AS LO PRES MOVES NNE
OFF THE DE/MD CST. WINDS WILL SHIFT FM THE ESE OVR THE LWR MD AND
VA ERN SHR...TO THE SW OR W DURING THIS MORNG TO ARND MIDDAY. THE
FRONT WILL THEN DROP BACK S OF THE AREA THIS EVENG INTO SUN
MORNG...AS SFC LO TRACKS NE OUT TO SEA. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT...SEAS
2-3 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/ESS
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 041130
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
730 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AREA OF SHRAS CONTG TO MOVE THROUGH ERN VA/PORTIONS OF LWR MD ERN
SHORE NEXT FEW HRS. SFC WARM FNT FM ABT THE LWR CHES BAY ON W
THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE PDMNT IN CNTRL VA ATTM...AND WILL CONT TO
MAKE SLO PROGRESS LIFTING NE OF THE RGN THROUGH MID/LT MRNG HRS.
WK SFC LO PRES WILL BE TRACKING THROUGH NRN VA TO OFF THE CNTRL
DELMARVA BY THIS AFTN. FNTL BNDRY WILL AGN SETTLE S INTO CNTRL/SRN
VA LT TDA. WILL HAVE CHC POPS (MNLY 30-40%) INTO THE THIS
AFTN...HIGHEST N AND W PORTIONS OF FA. MORE WIDESPREAD SHRAS/TSTMS
XPCD LT TDA AS THE BNDRY FM THE N PUSHES S AND COMBINES W/ DAYTIME
HEATING. ANOTHER RND OF MDT/HVY RA PSBL...ESP IN SCNTRL AND/OR SE
VA/NE NC (SOME OF THESE AREAS RECEIVED 1-3 INCHES FRI EVE). NOT
CONSIDERING ANY FLOOD WATCHES ATTM...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
TRENDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ADDITIONAL AVG QPF OF 1/2 INCH FM
CNTRL TO SRN VA...W/ LCLLY HIGHER AMTS (1-2 INCHES) PSBL. VRB
CLDS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TDA. HI TEMPS FM THE U70S-L80S N AND NW TO
THE U80S-ARND 90F S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
FNTL BNDRY STALLS INVOF VA/NC BORDER TNGT...THEN BEGINS TO MOVE
BACK N ONCE AGN LT SUN INTO MON AS LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE FM
THE GULF STATES TO THE CNTRL MTNS. THERE RMN SOME MDL
INCONSISTENCIES IN THIS SCENERIO...LARGELY RELATING TO TIMING AND
WHERE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF TAKES PLACE.

LINGERING SHRAS/TSTMS TNGT FAR SRN VA/NE NC WHILE DRYING OCCURS
OVR NNE PORTIONS OF THE FA (ESP AFT MDNGT). THE FAVORED AREA OF
ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS ON SUN LIKELY TO BE FM SCNTRL VA TO FAR SE
VA/NE NC INVOF STALLED FNTL BNDRY. MOSTLY CLOUDY S...PARTLY CLOUDY
NE TNGT THROUGH SUN. LO TEMPS FM THE M/U60S N TO THE U60S- L70S S.
HI TEMPS SUN MNLY IN THE L/M80S.

00Z/06 NAM FARTHER W W/ AXIS OF SGFNT PCPN SUN NGT INTO MON AS LO
PRES MOVES INTO THE CNTRL MTNS. WILL HAVE POPS GRADUALLY INCRSG
INTO CNTRL/INTERIOR ERN VA INTO MON...WHILE KEEPING POPS LWR AT
MUCH OF THE CST. MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB
CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH MON XPCD TO AVG 1-1.5 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL
VA TO INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF ABT 1/2 INCH OVR THE
LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL
DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR REPEATING
SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY CONTINUED LOW AMPLITUDE
UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH GRADUAL RE-REEMERGENCE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT THAT WITH OCCASIONAL UPPER
DISTURBANCES/PERTURBATIONS PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC,
AS WEAK SFC TROUGH PERSISTS IN PLACE OVERHEAD, MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHC
RANGE BY DAY (NEAR CLIMO NORMS), W/ SLIGHT CHC OR LESS OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST PW VALUES WILL ALSO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD...LINGERING AROUND +2 S.D. ABOVE NORMAL. ACCORDINGLY, WE`LL
NEED TO BE ON GUARD FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, WITH THIS INCREASED HUMIDITY/DEWPOINTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD, CONTINUED TO RIDE ON THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE WITH
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...GENERALLY FAVORING A TYPICAL
MID-JULY WARM/MODERATELY HUMID SET UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 INLAND,
WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS 65 TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARM FRNTL BNDRY WILL LIFT JUST N OF THE REGION BY ARND MIDDAY...AS
LO PRES MOVES NNE FM SE VA TO JUST OFF THE DE/MD CST. THAT LO WILL
THEN TRACK NE OUT TO SEA THIS AFTN INTO SUN MORNG...PULLING THAT
BNDRY BACK S INTO NRN NC AS A COLD FRONT. SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO SUN MORNG...WITH THE BEST
CHCS SHIFTING FM THE ENTIRE REGION THIS MORNG...SWRD INTO SRN VA
AND NRN/NE NC THIS EVENG INTO SUN MORNG. EXPECT MAINLY VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS ACRS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE TIME...WITH IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT ANY TAF SITE THRU SUN MORNG...ESPLY DURING
THE MORNG HRS.

&&

.MARINE...
WSW GUSTS HAVE BEEN TO 20-25 KTS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY
FM ARND 0930Z THIS MORNG...AND WILL CALM DOWN TO MORE LIKE 15-20
KT GUSTS BY 13Z. SO...SINCE THIS WILL ONLY LAST ABT 3 HRS...HAVE
NOT ISSUED A SCA...AND HAVE WINDS AT 15 KT FOR THE FCST.

NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU SUN NGT. UNSETTLED WX
CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
FRNTL BNDRY WAS LIFTING N ACRS THE WTRS EARLY THIS MORNG...AND
WILL LIFT JUST N OF THE AREA BY ARND MIDDAY AS LO PRES MOVES NNE
OFF THE DE/MD CST. WINDS WILL SHIFT FM THE ESE OVR THE LWR MD AND
VA ERN SHR...TO THE SW OR W DURING THIS MORNG TO ARND MIDDAY. THE
FRONT WILL THEN DROP BACK S OF THE AREA THIS EVENG INTO SUN
MORNG...AS SFC LO TRACKS NE OUT TO SEA. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT...SEAS
2-3 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/ESS
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 041130
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
730 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AREA OF SHRAS CONTG TO MOVE THROUGH ERN VA/PORTIONS OF LWR MD ERN
SHORE NEXT FEW HRS. SFC WARM FNT FM ABT THE LWR CHES BAY ON W
THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE PDMNT IN CNTRL VA ATTM...AND WILL CONT TO
MAKE SLO PROGRESS LIFTING NE OF THE RGN THROUGH MID/LT MRNG HRS.
WK SFC LO PRES WILL BE TRACKING THROUGH NRN VA TO OFF THE CNTRL
DELMARVA BY THIS AFTN. FNTL BNDRY WILL AGN SETTLE S INTO CNTRL/SRN
VA LT TDA. WILL HAVE CHC POPS (MNLY 30-40%) INTO THE THIS
AFTN...HIGHEST N AND W PORTIONS OF FA. MORE WIDESPREAD SHRAS/TSTMS
XPCD LT TDA AS THE BNDRY FM THE N PUSHES S AND COMBINES W/ DAYTIME
HEATING. ANOTHER RND OF MDT/HVY RA PSBL...ESP IN SCNTRL AND/OR SE
VA/NE NC (SOME OF THESE AREAS RECEIVED 1-3 INCHES FRI EVE). NOT
CONSIDERING ANY FLOOD WATCHES ATTM...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
TRENDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ADDITIONAL AVG QPF OF 1/2 INCH FM
CNTRL TO SRN VA...W/ LCLLY HIGHER AMTS (1-2 INCHES) PSBL. VRB
CLDS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TDA. HI TEMPS FM THE U70S-L80S N AND NW TO
THE U80S-ARND 90F S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
FNTL BNDRY STALLS INVOF VA/NC BORDER TNGT...THEN BEGINS TO MOVE
BACK N ONCE AGN LT SUN INTO MON AS LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE FM
THE GULF STATES TO THE CNTRL MTNS. THERE RMN SOME MDL
INCONSISTENCIES IN THIS SCENERIO...LARGELY RELATING TO TIMING AND
WHERE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF TAKES PLACE.

LINGERING SHRAS/TSTMS TNGT FAR SRN VA/NE NC WHILE DRYING OCCURS
OVR NNE PORTIONS OF THE FA (ESP AFT MDNGT). THE FAVORED AREA OF
ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS ON SUN LIKELY TO BE FM SCNTRL VA TO FAR SE
VA/NE NC INVOF STALLED FNTL BNDRY. MOSTLY CLOUDY S...PARTLY CLOUDY
NE TNGT THROUGH SUN. LO TEMPS FM THE M/U60S N TO THE U60S- L70S S.
HI TEMPS SUN MNLY IN THE L/M80S.

00Z/06 NAM FARTHER W W/ AXIS OF SGFNT PCPN SUN NGT INTO MON AS LO
PRES MOVES INTO THE CNTRL MTNS. WILL HAVE POPS GRADUALLY INCRSG
INTO CNTRL/INTERIOR ERN VA INTO MON...WHILE KEEPING POPS LWR AT
MUCH OF THE CST. MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB
CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH MON XPCD TO AVG 1-1.5 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL
VA TO INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF ABT 1/2 INCH OVR THE
LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL
DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR REPEATING
SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY CONTINUED LOW AMPLITUDE
UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH GRADUAL RE-REEMERGENCE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT THAT WITH OCCASIONAL UPPER
DISTURBANCES/PERTURBATIONS PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC,
AS WEAK SFC TROUGH PERSISTS IN PLACE OVERHEAD, MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHC
RANGE BY DAY (NEAR CLIMO NORMS), W/ SLIGHT CHC OR LESS OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST PW VALUES WILL ALSO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD...LINGERING AROUND +2 S.D. ABOVE NORMAL. ACCORDINGLY, WE`LL
NEED TO BE ON GUARD FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, WITH THIS INCREASED HUMIDITY/DEWPOINTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD, CONTINUED TO RIDE ON THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE WITH
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...GENERALLY FAVORING A TYPICAL
MID-JULY WARM/MODERATELY HUMID SET UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 INLAND,
WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS 65 TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARM FRNTL BNDRY WILL LIFT JUST N OF THE REGION BY ARND MIDDAY...AS
LO PRES MOVES NNE FM SE VA TO JUST OFF THE DE/MD CST. THAT LO WILL
THEN TRACK NE OUT TO SEA THIS AFTN INTO SUN MORNG...PULLING THAT
BNDRY BACK S INTO NRN NC AS A COLD FRONT. SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO SUN MORNG...WITH THE BEST
CHCS SHIFTING FM THE ENTIRE REGION THIS MORNG...SWRD INTO SRN VA
AND NRN/NE NC THIS EVENG INTO SUN MORNG. EXPECT MAINLY VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS ACRS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE TIME...WITH IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT ANY TAF SITE THRU SUN MORNG...ESPLY DURING
THE MORNG HRS.

&&

.MARINE...
WSW GUSTS HAVE BEEN TO 20-25 KTS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY
FM ARND 0930Z THIS MORNG...AND WILL CALM DOWN TO MORE LIKE 15-20
KT GUSTS BY 13Z. SO...SINCE THIS WILL ONLY LAST ABT 3 HRS...HAVE
NOT ISSUED A SCA...AND HAVE WINDS AT 15 KT FOR THE FCST.

NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU SUN NGT. UNSETTLED WX
CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
FRNTL BNDRY WAS LIFTING N ACRS THE WTRS EARLY THIS MORNG...AND
WILL LIFT JUST N OF THE AREA BY ARND MIDDAY AS LO PRES MOVES NNE
OFF THE DE/MD CST. WINDS WILL SHIFT FM THE ESE OVR THE LWR MD AND
VA ERN SHR...TO THE SW OR W DURING THIS MORNG TO ARND MIDDAY. THE
FRONT WILL THEN DROP BACK S OF THE AREA THIS EVENG INTO SUN
MORNG...AS SFC LO TRACKS NE OUT TO SEA. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT...SEAS
2-3 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/ESS
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG




000
FXUS61 KRNK 040859
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
459 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING US ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. THEN...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...KEEPING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK...AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT SATURDAY...

ESSENTIALLY THE SAME WEATHER FACTORS TO DEAL WITH AGAIN TODAY AS
IMPULSES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER TROF
OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A SURFACE FRONT WAVERING AROUND THROUGH THE
AREA. TODAYS ITERATION WILL SEE A SURFACE LOW PULLING OFF THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST WHICH SWINGS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK THROUGH THE
REGION AS A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDER TO THE REGION...BUT THE CONTINUED LACK OF
INSTABILITY INDICATES NO SEVERE FOR TODAY. SOME AREAS OF THE MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE REGION INTO THE GRAYSON HIGHLANDS RECEIVED 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES OF
RAIN YESTERDAY SO THEY ARE VULNERABLE TO HYDRO CONCERNS. HOWEVER...DO
NOT EXPECT COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION TO BE WIDESPREAD AWAY FROM THE
FRONT...AND THE FRONT SHOULD HAVE A BIT OF A PUSH TO IT TO KEEP THE
PRECIPITATION MOVING. THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY TO GENERATE
DEEP CONVECTION AND THE FACT THAT THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL
GET HUNG UP OVER OUR AREA SHOULD HELP LIMIT QPF AMOUNTS TODAY AND
MITIGATE ANY LARGE SCALE FLOOD THREAT SO DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE A FLOOD
WATCH WITH THIS PACKAGE. AS ALWAYS THIS SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY. THE FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MIDNIGHT WITH JUST SOME
LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE OVERNIGHT.

AFTER A CHILLY AND DAMP FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER AS WINDS BECOME WESTERLY AND WE GET SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY FROM THE LOW/MID 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
TO LOW/MID 70S WEST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 60S EAST TO LOWER 60S WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT SATURDAY...

MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
AND ITS SUBSEQUENT NORTHWARD DRIFT INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK. TAIL END OF LONG STANDING EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL BECOME
CUTOFF ACROSS NORTHERN GA/AL/EASTERN TN FROM THE PARENT UPPER
TROUGH...WHICH WILL SHEAR OUT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS A SHORT WAVE
RIDGE DRIFTS INTO THE OH VALLEY. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN DRIFT
SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO MON...FINALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION BY
TUESDAY AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH FROM GA IT TAKES ON A NEGATIVE
TILT...WHICH WILL FURTHER ENHANCE OVERALL WEAK DYNAMICS/LIFT AND
CERTAINLY PROLONG THE WET WEATHER PATTERN. ABUNDANT DEEP MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH PWATS IN THE 1.75 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. EXTENSIVE TO NEAR SOLID CLOUD COVER WILL
LIMIT HEATING...SO INSTABILITIES REMAIN MEAGER AND OVERALL
DYNAMICS ARE WEAK. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A LARGE SWATH
OF DEEP MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW...TRACKING FROM
GA/SC NORTHWARD INTO THE RNK CWA BY SUN AFTERNOON...DRIFTING INTO
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA MON...THEN FINALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST
OF THE CWA BY TUE. THIS WILL REQUIRE CONTINUATION OF LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS SAT-MON ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH A LIMITED
DIURNAL SWING GIVEN THE UPPER LOW ESSENTIALLY DRIFTING RIGHT
ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CWA.

THE PATH OF THE UPPER LOW SHOULD FOCUS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
WITH 3HR FFG VALUES AVERAGING IN THE 1.5 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA AND THE RECENT PROLONGED WET SPELL...WE WILL NEED
TO WATCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS CAREFULLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF ANY ORGANIZED OR STRONG CONVECTION...GIVEN
THE MEAGER LAPSE RATES AND LACK OF INSTABILITY/DYNAMICS...SHOULD
HOLD HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN CHECK. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING IN THE HWO...BUT NO FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA TUE...WE SHOULD SEE
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TO FINALLY REDUCE POPS TO JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE CATEGORY. DIURNAL CONVECTION BECOMES A BETTER BET
BY TUE AFTERNOON WITH EXPECTED GREATER INSOLATION THAN WE HAVE
SEEN IN QUITE SOME TIME. A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING
THE WESTERN AREAS BY LATE DAY...WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND LINEAR ORIENTED CONVECTION COULD
BE APPROACHING THE WV/SW VA COUNTIES BY EVENING.

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BE MINIMAL WITH LIMITED THUNDER.
SPC CURRENTLY JUST HAS GENERAL THUNDER THROUGH THE PERIOD AT THIS
TIME.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MON...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES TUESDAY WITH GREATER
INSOLATION. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGH PWATS/DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT SATURDAY...

WET WEATHER DESTINED TO CONTINUE. AFTER A VERY BRIEF RESPITE FROM
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TUESDAY...A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DRIFT
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST BY WED AND THEN BECOME ELONGATED
WEST-EAST ACROSS THE CWA AND STALL. WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO
OUR SOUTH AND WESTERLIES TO OUR NORTH...WE ARE DESTINED ONCE
AGAIN TO BE STUCK IN AN ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH NUMEROUS
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TRACKING FROM THE WESTERN U.S. TO THE EASTERN
U.S. SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR
INEVITABLE...WITH ONE WED AND ANOTHER ONE ON THU. UPPER FLOW
ATTEMPTS TO TRANSITION BACK TO NORTHWEST FLOW TOWARD THE WEEKEND
AS UPPER RIDING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS COULD
REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED CONVECTION/RAINFALL...BUT WILL
NONETHELESS KEEP US IN AN ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN.
THERE WOULD APPEAR TO BE A CONTINUED THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF ANTECEDENT VERY MOIST
CONDITIONS...AND AT LEAST A MINIMAL THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD.

WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE LEVELS CONTINUING...EXPECT
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT SATURDAY...

EXPECT VARIABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST...AND CIGS/VSBYS ARE BOUNCING
AROUND A GOOD BIT. ANTICIPATING THE CIGS TO SETTLE DOWN INTO IFR
WITH VSBYS MVFR/IFR AND THIS IS INDICATED IN THE EARLY PORTION OF
THE TAFS. WILL NOT BE TOO QUICK TO AMEND UP IF VARIABLE CONDITIONS
PERSIST LONGER THAN EXPECTED.

ALL OF THIS WEATHER IS COURTESY OF THE PERSISTENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT HAS BEEN WAVERING ABOUT THE AREA FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
THE LATEST ITERATION OF THIS SCENARIO HAS LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND PUSHING THIS BOUNDARY BACK SOUTH AS A
COLD FRONT TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS AND WINDS COME AROUND TO THE
W/NW...CIGS/VSBYS WILL IMPROVE AND EXPECT VFR AT TAF SITES BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. MESO MODELS WANT TO REDEVELOP SHOWERS
WITH THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE OF THE
SCATTERED VARIETY. WILL GO WITH VCSH AND ALLOW LATER PACKAGES TO
FINE TUNE TIMING/LOCATIONS OF ANY PRECIPITATION. INSTABILITY
CONTINUES TO BE LACKING SO EXPECT ONLY AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR TS.
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE REDEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT BUT ANY
ADVERSE CONDITIONS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE SETTING IN AFTER THIS
VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDOWS
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR VFR CONDITIONS INCREASE INTO MON/TUE. UPPER
LOW/TROUGH WILL LINGER WEST OF THE VA/NC COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN BEGIN TO DRIFT INTO
NORTHERN VA BY MON. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE OH VALLEY BY WED. THIS LEAVES A VERY UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH
IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR-
VFR OUTSIDE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOONS. AT THIS
POINT...TUESDAY APPEARS TO OFFER THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...AMS/MBS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...KK/RAB
AVIATION...MBS/WP



000
FXUS61 KRNK 040859
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
459 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING US ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. THEN...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...KEEPING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK...AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT SATURDAY...

ESSENTIALLY THE SAME WEATHER FACTORS TO DEAL WITH AGAIN TODAY AS
IMPULSES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER TROF
OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A SURFACE FRONT WAVERING AROUND THROUGH THE
AREA. TODAYS ITERATION WILL SEE A SURFACE LOW PULLING OFF THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST WHICH SWINGS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK THROUGH THE
REGION AS A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDER TO THE REGION...BUT THE CONTINUED LACK OF
INSTABILITY INDICATES NO SEVERE FOR TODAY. SOME AREAS OF THE MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE REGION INTO THE GRAYSON HIGHLANDS RECEIVED 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES OF
RAIN YESTERDAY SO THEY ARE VULNERABLE TO HYDRO CONCERNS. HOWEVER...DO
NOT EXPECT COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION TO BE WIDESPREAD AWAY FROM THE
FRONT...AND THE FRONT SHOULD HAVE A BIT OF A PUSH TO IT TO KEEP THE
PRECIPITATION MOVING. THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY TO GENERATE
DEEP CONVECTION AND THE FACT THAT THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL
GET HUNG UP OVER OUR AREA SHOULD HELP LIMIT QPF AMOUNTS TODAY AND
MITIGATE ANY LARGE SCALE FLOOD THREAT SO DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE A FLOOD
WATCH WITH THIS PACKAGE. AS ALWAYS THIS SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY. THE FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MIDNIGHT WITH JUST SOME
LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE OVERNIGHT.

AFTER A CHILLY AND DAMP FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER AS WINDS BECOME WESTERLY AND WE GET SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY FROM THE LOW/MID 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
TO LOW/MID 70S WEST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 60S EAST TO LOWER 60S WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT SATURDAY...

MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
AND ITS SUBSEQUENT NORTHWARD DRIFT INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK. TAIL END OF LONG STANDING EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL BECOME
CUTOFF ACROSS NORTHERN GA/AL/EASTERN TN FROM THE PARENT UPPER
TROUGH...WHICH WILL SHEAR OUT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS A SHORT WAVE
RIDGE DRIFTS INTO THE OH VALLEY. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN DRIFT
SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO MON...FINALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION BY
TUESDAY AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH FROM GA IT TAKES ON A NEGATIVE
TILT...WHICH WILL FURTHER ENHANCE OVERALL WEAK DYNAMICS/LIFT AND
CERTAINLY PROLONG THE WET WEATHER PATTERN. ABUNDANT DEEP MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH PWATS IN THE 1.75 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. EXTENSIVE TO NEAR SOLID CLOUD COVER WILL
LIMIT HEATING...SO INSTABILITIES REMAIN MEAGER AND OVERALL
DYNAMICS ARE WEAK. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A LARGE SWATH
OF DEEP MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW...TRACKING FROM
GA/SC NORTHWARD INTO THE RNK CWA BY SUN AFTERNOON...DRIFTING INTO
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA MON...THEN FINALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST
OF THE CWA BY TUE. THIS WILL REQUIRE CONTINUATION OF LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS SAT-MON ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH A LIMITED
DIURNAL SWING GIVEN THE UPPER LOW ESSENTIALLY DRIFTING RIGHT
ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CWA.

THE PATH OF THE UPPER LOW SHOULD FOCUS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
WITH 3HR FFG VALUES AVERAGING IN THE 1.5 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA AND THE RECENT PROLONGED WET SPELL...WE WILL NEED
TO WATCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS CAREFULLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF ANY ORGANIZED OR STRONG CONVECTION...GIVEN
THE MEAGER LAPSE RATES AND LACK OF INSTABILITY/DYNAMICS...SHOULD
HOLD HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN CHECK. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING IN THE HWO...BUT NO FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA TUE...WE SHOULD SEE
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TO FINALLY REDUCE POPS TO JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE CATEGORY. DIURNAL CONVECTION BECOMES A BETTER BET
BY TUE AFTERNOON WITH EXPECTED GREATER INSOLATION THAN WE HAVE
SEEN IN QUITE SOME TIME. A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING
THE WESTERN AREAS BY LATE DAY...WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND LINEAR ORIENTED CONVECTION COULD
BE APPROACHING THE WV/SW VA COUNTIES BY EVENING.

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BE MINIMAL WITH LIMITED THUNDER.
SPC CURRENTLY JUST HAS GENERAL THUNDER THROUGH THE PERIOD AT THIS
TIME.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MON...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES TUESDAY WITH GREATER
INSOLATION. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGH PWATS/DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT SATURDAY...

WET WEATHER DESTINED TO CONTINUE. AFTER A VERY BRIEF RESPITE FROM
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TUESDAY...A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DRIFT
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST BY WED AND THEN BECOME ELONGATED
WEST-EAST ACROSS THE CWA AND STALL. WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO
OUR SOUTH AND WESTERLIES TO OUR NORTH...WE ARE DESTINED ONCE
AGAIN TO BE STUCK IN AN ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH NUMEROUS
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TRACKING FROM THE WESTERN U.S. TO THE EASTERN
U.S. SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR
INEVITABLE...WITH ONE WED AND ANOTHER ONE ON THU. UPPER FLOW
ATTEMPTS TO TRANSITION BACK TO NORTHWEST FLOW TOWARD THE WEEKEND
AS UPPER RIDING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS COULD
REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED CONVECTION/RAINFALL...BUT WILL
NONETHELESS KEEP US IN AN ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN.
THERE WOULD APPEAR TO BE A CONTINUED THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF ANTECEDENT VERY MOIST
CONDITIONS...AND AT LEAST A MINIMAL THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD.

WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE LEVELS CONTINUING...EXPECT
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT SATURDAY...

EXPECT VARIABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST...AND CIGS/VSBYS ARE BOUNCING
AROUND A GOOD BIT. ANTICIPATING THE CIGS TO SETTLE DOWN INTO IFR
WITH VSBYS MVFR/IFR AND THIS IS INDICATED IN THE EARLY PORTION OF
THE TAFS. WILL NOT BE TOO QUICK TO AMEND UP IF VARIABLE CONDITIONS
PERSIST LONGER THAN EXPECTED.

ALL OF THIS WEATHER IS COURTESY OF THE PERSISTENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT HAS BEEN WAVERING ABOUT THE AREA FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
THE LATEST ITERATION OF THIS SCENARIO HAS LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND PUSHING THIS BOUNDARY BACK SOUTH AS A
COLD FRONT TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS AND WINDS COME AROUND TO THE
W/NW...CIGS/VSBYS WILL IMPROVE AND EXPECT VFR AT TAF SITES BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. MESO MODELS WANT TO REDEVELOP SHOWERS
WITH THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE OF THE
SCATTERED VARIETY. WILL GO WITH VCSH AND ALLOW LATER PACKAGES TO
FINE TUNE TIMING/LOCATIONS OF ANY PRECIPITATION. INSTABILITY
CONTINUES TO BE LACKING SO EXPECT ONLY AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR TS.
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE REDEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT BUT ANY
ADVERSE CONDITIONS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE SETTING IN AFTER THIS
VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDOWS
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR VFR CONDITIONS INCREASE INTO MON/TUE. UPPER
LOW/TROUGH WILL LINGER WEST OF THE VA/NC COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN BEGIN TO DRIFT INTO
NORTHERN VA BY MON. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE OH VALLEY BY WED. THIS LEAVES A VERY UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH
IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR-
VFR OUTSIDE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOONS. AT THIS
POINT...TUESDAY APPEARS TO OFFER THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...AMS/MBS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...KK/RAB
AVIATION...MBS/WP



000
FXUS61 KRNK 040859
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
459 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING US ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. THEN...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...KEEPING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK...AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT SATURDAY...

ESSENTIALLY THE SAME WEATHER FACTORS TO DEAL WITH AGAIN TODAY AS
IMPULSES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER TROF
OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A SURFACE FRONT WAVERING AROUND THROUGH THE
AREA. TODAYS ITERATION WILL SEE A SURFACE LOW PULLING OFF THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST WHICH SWINGS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK THROUGH THE
REGION AS A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDER TO THE REGION...BUT THE CONTINUED LACK OF
INSTABILITY INDICATES NO SEVERE FOR TODAY. SOME AREAS OF THE MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE REGION INTO THE GRAYSON HIGHLANDS RECEIVED 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES OF
RAIN YESTERDAY SO THEY ARE VULNERABLE TO HYDRO CONCERNS. HOWEVER...DO
NOT EXPECT COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION TO BE WIDESPREAD AWAY FROM THE
FRONT...AND THE FRONT SHOULD HAVE A BIT OF A PUSH TO IT TO KEEP THE
PRECIPITATION MOVING. THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY TO GENERATE
DEEP CONVECTION AND THE FACT THAT THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL
GET HUNG UP OVER OUR AREA SHOULD HELP LIMIT QPF AMOUNTS TODAY AND
MITIGATE ANY LARGE SCALE FLOOD THREAT SO DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE A FLOOD
WATCH WITH THIS PACKAGE. AS ALWAYS THIS SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY. THE FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MIDNIGHT WITH JUST SOME
LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE OVERNIGHT.

AFTER A CHILLY AND DAMP FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER AS WINDS BECOME WESTERLY AND WE GET SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY FROM THE LOW/MID 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
TO LOW/MID 70S WEST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 60S EAST TO LOWER 60S WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT SATURDAY...

MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
AND ITS SUBSEQUENT NORTHWARD DRIFT INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK. TAIL END OF LONG STANDING EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL BECOME
CUTOFF ACROSS NORTHERN GA/AL/EASTERN TN FROM THE PARENT UPPER
TROUGH...WHICH WILL SHEAR OUT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS A SHORT WAVE
RIDGE DRIFTS INTO THE OH VALLEY. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN DRIFT
SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO MON...FINALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION BY
TUESDAY AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH FROM GA IT TAKES ON A NEGATIVE
TILT...WHICH WILL FURTHER ENHANCE OVERALL WEAK DYNAMICS/LIFT AND
CERTAINLY PROLONG THE WET WEATHER PATTERN. ABUNDANT DEEP MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH PWATS IN THE 1.75 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. EXTENSIVE TO NEAR SOLID CLOUD COVER WILL
LIMIT HEATING...SO INSTABILITIES REMAIN MEAGER AND OVERALL
DYNAMICS ARE WEAK. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A LARGE SWATH
OF DEEP MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW...TRACKING FROM
GA/SC NORTHWARD INTO THE RNK CWA BY SUN AFTERNOON...DRIFTING INTO
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA MON...THEN FINALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST
OF THE CWA BY TUE. THIS WILL REQUIRE CONTINUATION OF LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS SAT-MON ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH A LIMITED
DIURNAL SWING GIVEN THE UPPER LOW ESSENTIALLY DRIFTING RIGHT
ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CWA.

THE PATH OF THE UPPER LOW SHOULD FOCUS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
WITH 3HR FFG VALUES AVERAGING IN THE 1.5 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA AND THE RECENT PROLONGED WET SPELL...WE WILL NEED
TO WATCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS CAREFULLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF ANY ORGANIZED OR STRONG CONVECTION...GIVEN
THE MEAGER LAPSE RATES AND LACK OF INSTABILITY/DYNAMICS...SHOULD
HOLD HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN CHECK. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING IN THE HWO...BUT NO FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA TUE...WE SHOULD SEE
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TO FINALLY REDUCE POPS TO JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE CATEGORY. DIURNAL CONVECTION BECOMES A BETTER BET
BY TUE AFTERNOON WITH EXPECTED GREATER INSOLATION THAN WE HAVE
SEEN IN QUITE SOME TIME. A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING
THE WESTERN AREAS BY LATE DAY...WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND LINEAR ORIENTED CONVECTION COULD
BE APPROACHING THE WV/SW VA COUNTIES BY EVENING.

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BE MINIMAL WITH LIMITED THUNDER.
SPC CURRENTLY JUST HAS GENERAL THUNDER THROUGH THE PERIOD AT THIS
TIME.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MON...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES TUESDAY WITH GREATER
INSOLATION. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGH PWATS/DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT SATURDAY...

WET WEATHER DESTINED TO CONTINUE. AFTER A VERY BRIEF RESPITE FROM
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TUESDAY...A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DRIFT
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST BY WED AND THEN BECOME ELONGATED
WEST-EAST ACROSS THE CWA AND STALL. WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO
OUR SOUTH AND WESTERLIES TO OUR NORTH...WE ARE DESTINED ONCE
AGAIN TO BE STUCK IN AN ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH NUMEROUS
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TRACKING FROM THE WESTERN U.S. TO THE EASTERN
U.S. SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR
INEVITABLE...WITH ONE WED AND ANOTHER ONE ON THU. UPPER FLOW
ATTEMPTS TO TRANSITION BACK TO NORTHWEST FLOW TOWARD THE WEEKEND
AS UPPER RIDING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS COULD
REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED CONVECTION/RAINFALL...BUT WILL
NONETHELESS KEEP US IN AN ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN.
THERE WOULD APPEAR TO BE A CONTINUED THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF ANTECEDENT VERY MOIST
CONDITIONS...AND AT LEAST A MINIMAL THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD.

WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE LEVELS CONTINUING...EXPECT
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT SATURDAY...

EXPECT VARIABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST...AND CIGS/VSBYS ARE BOUNCING
AROUND A GOOD BIT. ANTICIPATING THE CIGS TO SETTLE DOWN INTO IFR
WITH VSBYS MVFR/IFR AND THIS IS INDICATED IN THE EARLY PORTION OF
THE TAFS. WILL NOT BE TOO QUICK TO AMEND UP IF VARIABLE CONDITIONS
PERSIST LONGER THAN EXPECTED.

ALL OF THIS WEATHER IS COURTESY OF THE PERSISTENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT HAS BEEN WAVERING ABOUT THE AREA FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
THE LATEST ITERATION OF THIS SCENARIO HAS LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND PUSHING THIS BOUNDARY BACK SOUTH AS A
COLD FRONT TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS AND WINDS COME AROUND TO THE
W/NW...CIGS/VSBYS WILL IMPROVE AND EXPECT VFR AT TAF SITES BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. MESO MODELS WANT TO REDEVELOP SHOWERS
WITH THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE OF THE
SCATTERED VARIETY. WILL GO WITH VCSH AND ALLOW LATER PACKAGES TO
FINE TUNE TIMING/LOCATIONS OF ANY PRECIPITATION. INSTABILITY
CONTINUES TO BE LACKING SO EXPECT ONLY AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR TS.
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE REDEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT BUT ANY
ADVERSE CONDITIONS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE SETTING IN AFTER THIS
VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDOWS
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR VFR CONDITIONS INCREASE INTO MON/TUE. UPPER
LOW/TROUGH WILL LINGER WEST OF THE VA/NC COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN BEGIN TO DRIFT INTO
NORTHERN VA BY MON. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE OH VALLEY BY WED. THIS LEAVES A VERY UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH
IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR-
VFR OUTSIDE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOONS. AT THIS
POINT...TUESDAY APPEARS TO OFFER THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...AMS/MBS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...KK/RAB
AVIATION...MBS/WP



000
FXUS61 KRNK 040859
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
459 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING US ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. THEN...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...KEEPING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK...AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT SATURDAY...

ESSENTIALLY THE SAME WEATHER FACTORS TO DEAL WITH AGAIN TODAY AS
IMPULSES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER TROF
OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A SURFACE FRONT WAVERING AROUND THROUGH THE
AREA. TODAYS ITERATION WILL SEE A SURFACE LOW PULLING OFF THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST WHICH SWINGS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK THROUGH THE
REGION AS A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDER TO THE REGION...BUT THE CONTINUED LACK OF
INSTABILITY INDICATES NO SEVERE FOR TODAY. SOME AREAS OF THE MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE REGION INTO THE GRAYSON HIGHLANDS RECEIVED 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES OF
RAIN YESTERDAY SO THEY ARE VULNERABLE TO HYDRO CONCERNS. HOWEVER...DO
NOT EXPECT COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION TO BE WIDESPREAD AWAY FROM THE
FRONT...AND THE FRONT SHOULD HAVE A BIT OF A PUSH TO IT TO KEEP THE
PRECIPITATION MOVING. THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY TO GENERATE
DEEP CONVECTION AND THE FACT THAT THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL
GET HUNG UP OVER OUR AREA SHOULD HELP LIMIT QPF AMOUNTS TODAY AND
MITIGATE ANY LARGE SCALE FLOOD THREAT SO DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE A FLOOD
WATCH WITH THIS PACKAGE. AS ALWAYS THIS SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY. THE FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MIDNIGHT WITH JUST SOME
LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE OVERNIGHT.

AFTER A CHILLY AND DAMP FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER AS WINDS BECOME WESTERLY AND WE GET SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY FROM THE LOW/MID 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
TO LOW/MID 70S WEST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 60S EAST TO LOWER 60S WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT SATURDAY...

MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
AND ITS SUBSEQUENT NORTHWARD DRIFT INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK. TAIL END OF LONG STANDING EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL BECOME
CUTOFF ACROSS NORTHERN GA/AL/EASTERN TN FROM THE PARENT UPPER
TROUGH...WHICH WILL SHEAR OUT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS A SHORT WAVE
RIDGE DRIFTS INTO THE OH VALLEY. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN DRIFT
SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO MON...FINALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION BY
TUESDAY AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH FROM GA IT TAKES ON A NEGATIVE
TILT...WHICH WILL FURTHER ENHANCE OVERALL WEAK DYNAMICS/LIFT AND
CERTAINLY PROLONG THE WET WEATHER PATTERN. ABUNDANT DEEP MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH PWATS IN THE 1.75 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. EXTENSIVE TO NEAR SOLID CLOUD COVER WILL
LIMIT HEATING...SO INSTABILITIES REMAIN MEAGER AND OVERALL
DYNAMICS ARE WEAK. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A LARGE SWATH
OF DEEP MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW...TRACKING FROM
GA/SC NORTHWARD INTO THE RNK CWA BY SUN AFTERNOON...DRIFTING INTO
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA MON...THEN FINALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST
OF THE CWA BY TUE. THIS WILL REQUIRE CONTINUATION OF LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS SAT-MON ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH A LIMITED
DIURNAL SWING GIVEN THE UPPER LOW ESSENTIALLY DRIFTING RIGHT
ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CWA.

THE PATH OF THE UPPER LOW SHOULD FOCUS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
WITH 3HR FFG VALUES AVERAGING IN THE 1.5 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA AND THE RECENT PROLONGED WET SPELL...WE WILL NEED
TO WATCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS CAREFULLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF ANY ORGANIZED OR STRONG CONVECTION...GIVEN
THE MEAGER LAPSE RATES AND LACK OF INSTABILITY/DYNAMICS...SHOULD
HOLD HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN CHECK. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING IN THE HWO...BUT NO FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA TUE...WE SHOULD SEE
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TO FINALLY REDUCE POPS TO JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE CATEGORY. DIURNAL CONVECTION BECOMES A BETTER BET
BY TUE AFTERNOON WITH EXPECTED GREATER INSOLATION THAN WE HAVE
SEEN IN QUITE SOME TIME. A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING
THE WESTERN AREAS BY LATE DAY...WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND LINEAR ORIENTED CONVECTION COULD
BE APPROACHING THE WV/SW VA COUNTIES BY EVENING.

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BE MINIMAL WITH LIMITED THUNDER.
SPC CURRENTLY JUST HAS GENERAL THUNDER THROUGH THE PERIOD AT THIS
TIME.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MON...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES TUESDAY WITH GREATER
INSOLATION. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGH PWATS/DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT SATURDAY...

WET WEATHER DESTINED TO CONTINUE. AFTER A VERY BRIEF RESPITE FROM
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TUESDAY...A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DRIFT
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST BY WED AND THEN BECOME ELONGATED
WEST-EAST ACROSS THE CWA AND STALL. WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO
OUR SOUTH AND WESTERLIES TO OUR NORTH...WE ARE DESTINED ONCE
AGAIN TO BE STUCK IN AN ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH NUMEROUS
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TRACKING FROM THE WESTERN U.S. TO THE EASTERN
U.S. SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR
INEVITABLE...WITH ONE WED AND ANOTHER ONE ON THU. UPPER FLOW
ATTEMPTS TO TRANSITION BACK TO NORTHWEST FLOW TOWARD THE WEEKEND
AS UPPER RIDING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS COULD
REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED CONVECTION/RAINFALL...BUT WILL
NONETHELESS KEEP US IN AN ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN.
THERE WOULD APPEAR TO BE A CONTINUED THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF ANTECEDENT VERY MOIST
CONDITIONS...AND AT LEAST A MINIMAL THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD.

WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE LEVELS CONTINUING...EXPECT
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT SATURDAY...

EXPECT VARIABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST...AND CIGS/VSBYS ARE BOUNCING
AROUND A GOOD BIT. ANTICIPATING THE CIGS TO SETTLE DOWN INTO IFR
WITH VSBYS MVFR/IFR AND THIS IS INDICATED IN THE EARLY PORTION OF
THE TAFS. WILL NOT BE TOO QUICK TO AMEND UP IF VARIABLE CONDITIONS
PERSIST LONGER THAN EXPECTED.

ALL OF THIS WEATHER IS COURTESY OF THE PERSISTENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT HAS BEEN WAVERING ABOUT THE AREA FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
THE LATEST ITERATION OF THIS SCENARIO HAS LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND PUSHING THIS BOUNDARY BACK SOUTH AS A
COLD FRONT TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS AND WINDS COME AROUND TO THE
W/NW...CIGS/VSBYS WILL IMPROVE AND EXPECT VFR AT TAF SITES BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. MESO MODELS WANT TO REDEVELOP SHOWERS
WITH THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE OF THE
SCATTERED VARIETY. WILL GO WITH VCSH AND ALLOW LATER PACKAGES TO
FINE TUNE TIMING/LOCATIONS OF ANY PRECIPITATION. INSTABILITY
CONTINUES TO BE LACKING SO EXPECT ONLY AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR TS.
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE REDEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT BUT ANY
ADVERSE CONDITIONS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE SETTING IN AFTER THIS
VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDOWS
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR VFR CONDITIONS INCREASE INTO MON/TUE. UPPER
LOW/TROUGH WILL LINGER WEST OF THE VA/NC COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN BEGIN TO DRIFT INTO
NORTHERN VA BY MON. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE OH VALLEY BY WED. THIS LEAVES A VERY UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH
IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR-
VFR OUTSIDE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOONS. AT THIS
POINT...TUESDAY APPEARS TO OFFER THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...AMS/MBS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...KK/RAB
AVIATION...MBS/WP



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 040845
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
445 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AREA OF SHRAS CONTG TO MOVE THROUGH ERN VA/PORTIONS OF LWR MD ERN
SHORE NEXT FEW HRS. SFC WARM FNT FM ABT THE LWR CHES BAY ON W
THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE PDMNT IN CNTRL VA ATTM...AND WILL CONT TO
MAKE SLO PROGRESS LIFTING NE OF THE RGN THROUGH MID/LT MRNG HRS.
WK SFC LO PRES WILL BE TRACKING THROUGH NRN VA TO OFF THE CNTRL
DELMARVA BY THIS AFTN. FNTL BNDRY WILL AGN SETTLE S INTO CNTRL/SRN
VA LT TDA. WILL HAVE CHC POPS (MNLY 30-40%) INTO THE THIS
AFTN...HIGHEST N AND W PORTIONS OF FA. MORE WIDESPREAD SHRAS/TSTMS
XPCD LT TDA AS THE BNDRY FM THE N PUSHES S AND COMBINES W/ DAYTIME
HEATING. ANOTHER RND OF MDT/HVY RA PSBL...ESP IN SCNTRL AND/OR SE
VA/NE NC (SOME OF THESE AREAS RECEIVED 1-3 INCHES FRI EVE). NOT
CONSIDERING ANY FLOOD WATCHES ATTM...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
TRENDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ADDITIONAL AVG QPF OF 1/2 INCH FM
CNTRL TO SRN VA...W/ LCLLY HIGHER AMTS (1-2 INCHES) PSBL. VRB
CLDS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TDA. HI TEMPS FM THE U70S-L80S N AND NW TO
THE U80S-ARND 90F S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
FNTL BNDRY STALLS INVOF VA/NC BORDER TNGT...THEN BEGINS TO MOVE
BACK N ONCE AGN LT SUN INTO MON AS LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE FM
THE GULF STATES TO THE CNTRL MTNS. THERE RMN SOME MDL
INCONSISTENCIES IN THIS SCENERIO...LARGELY RELATING TO TIMING AND
WHERE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF TAKES PLACE.

LINGERING SHRAS/TSTMS TNGT FAR SRN VA/NE NC WHILE DRYING OCCURS
OVR NNE PORTIONS OF THE FA (ESP AFT MDNGT). THE FAVORED AREA OF
ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS ON SUN LIKELY TO BE FM SCNTRL VA TO FAR SE
VA/NE NC INVOF STALLED FNTL BNDRY. MOSTLY CLOUDY S...PARTLY CLOUDY
NE TNGT THROUGH SUN. LO TEMPS FM THE M/U60S N TO THE U60S- L70S S.
HI TEMPS SUN MNLY IN THE L/M80S.

00Z/06 NAM FARTHER W W/ AXIS OF SGFNT PCPN SUN NGT INTO MON AS LO
PRES MOVES INTO THE CNTRL MTNS. WILL HAVE POPS GRADUALLY INCRSG
INTO CNTRL/INTERIOR ERN VA INTO MON...WHILE KEEPING POPS LWR AT
MUCH OF THE CST. MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB
CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH MON XPCD TO AVG 1-1.5 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL
VA TO INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF ABT 1/2 INCH OVR THE
LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL
DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR REPEATING
SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY CONTINUED LOW AMPLITUDE
UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH GRADUAL RE-REEMERGENCE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT THAT WITH OCCASIONAL UPPER
DISTURBANCES/PERTURBATIONS PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC,
AS WEAK SFC TROUGH PERSISTS IN PLACE OVERHEAD, MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHC
RANGE BY DAY (NEAR CLIMO NORMS), W/ SLIGHT CHC OR LESS OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST PW VALUES WILL ALSO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD...LINGERING AROUND +2 S.D. ABOVE NORMAL. ACCORDINGLY, WE`LL
NEED TO BE ON GUARD FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, WITH THIS INCREASED HUMIDITY/DEWPOINTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD, CONTINUED TO RIDE ON THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE WITH
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...GENERALLY FAVORING A TYPICAL
MID-JULY WARM/MODERATELY HUMID SET UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 INLAND,
WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS 65 TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARM FRNTL BNDRY WILL LIFT JUST N OF THE REGION BY ARND MIDDAY...AS
LO PRES MOVES NNE FM SE VA TO JUST OFF THE DE/MD CST. THAT LO WILL
THEN TRACK NE OUT TO SEA THIS AFTN INTO SUN MORNG...PULLING THAT
BNDRY BACK S INTO NRN NC AS A COLD FRONT. SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO SUN MORNG...WITH THE BEST
CHCS SHIFTING FM THE ENTIRE REGION THIS MORNG...SWRD INTO SRN VA
AND NRN/NE NC THIS EVENG INTO SUN MORNG. EXPECT MAINLY VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS ACRS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE TIME...WITH IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT ANY TAF SITE THRU SUN MORNG...ESPLY DURING
THE MORNG HRS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU SUN NGT. UNSETTLED WX
CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
FRNTL BNDRY WAS LIFTING N ACRS THE WTRS EARLY THIS MORNG...AND
WILL LIFT JUST N OF THE AREA BY ARND MIDDAY AS LO PRES MOVES NNE
OFF THE DE/MD CST. WINDS WILL SHIFT FM THE ESE OVR THE LWR MD AND
VA ERN SHR...TO THE SW OR W DURING THIS MORNG TO ARND MIDDAY. THE
FRONT WILL THEN DROP BACK S OF THE AREA THIS EVENG INTO SUN
MORNG...AS SFC LO TRACKS NE OUT TO SEA. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT...SEAS
2-3 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/ESS
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 040845
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
445 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AREA OF SHRAS CONTG TO MOVE THROUGH ERN VA/PORTIONS OF LWR MD ERN
SHORE NEXT FEW HRS. SFC WARM FNT FM ABT THE LWR CHES BAY ON W
THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE PDMNT IN CNTRL VA ATTM...AND WILL CONT TO
MAKE SLO PROGRESS LIFTING NE OF THE RGN THROUGH MID/LT MRNG HRS.
WK SFC LO PRES WILL BE TRACKING THROUGH NRN VA TO OFF THE CNTRL
DELMARVA BY THIS AFTN. FNTL BNDRY WILL AGN SETTLE S INTO CNTRL/SRN
VA LT TDA. WILL HAVE CHC POPS (MNLY 30-40%) INTO THE THIS
AFTN...HIGHEST N AND W PORTIONS OF FA. MORE WIDESPREAD SHRAS/TSTMS
XPCD LT TDA AS THE BNDRY FM THE N PUSHES S AND COMBINES W/ DAYTIME
HEATING. ANOTHER RND OF MDT/HVY RA PSBL...ESP IN SCNTRL AND/OR SE
VA/NE NC (SOME OF THESE AREAS RECEIVED 1-3 INCHES FRI EVE). NOT
CONSIDERING ANY FLOOD WATCHES ATTM...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
TRENDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ADDITIONAL AVG QPF OF 1/2 INCH FM
CNTRL TO SRN VA...W/ LCLLY HIGHER AMTS (1-2 INCHES) PSBL. VRB
CLDS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TDA. HI TEMPS FM THE U70S-L80S N AND NW TO
THE U80S-ARND 90F S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
FNTL BNDRY STALLS INVOF VA/NC BORDER TNGT...THEN BEGINS TO MOVE
BACK N ONCE AGN LT SUN INTO MON AS LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE FM
THE GULF STATES TO THE CNTRL MTNS. THERE RMN SOME MDL
INCONSISTENCIES IN THIS SCENERIO...LARGELY RELATING TO TIMING AND
WHERE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF TAKES PLACE.

LINGERING SHRAS/TSTMS TNGT FAR SRN VA/NE NC WHILE DRYING OCCURS
OVR NNE PORTIONS OF THE FA (ESP AFT MDNGT). THE FAVORED AREA OF
ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS ON SUN LIKELY TO BE FM SCNTRL VA TO FAR SE
VA/NE NC INVOF STALLED FNTL BNDRY. MOSTLY CLOUDY S...PARTLY CLOUDY
NE TNGT THROUGH SUN. LO TEMPS FM THE M/U60S N TO THE U60S- L70S S.
HI TEMPS SUN MNLY IN THE L/M80S.

00Z/06 NAM FARTHER W W/ AXIS OF SGFNT PCPN SUN NGT INTO MON AS LO
PRES MOVES INTO THE CNTRL MTNS. WILL HAVE POPS GRADUALLY INCRSG
INTO CNTRL/INTERIOR ERN VA INTO MON...WHILE KEEPING POPS LWR AT
MUCH OF THE CST. MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB
CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH MON XPCD TO AVG 1-1.5 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL
VA TO INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF ABT 1/2 INCH OVR THE
LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL
DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR REPEATING
SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY CONTINUED LOW AMPLITUDE
UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH GRADUAL RE-REEMERGENCE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT THAT WITH OCCASIONAL UPPER
DISTURBANCES/PERTURBATIONS PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC,
AS WEAK SFC TROUGH PERSISTS IN PLACE OVERHEAD, MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHC
RANGE BY DAY (NEAR CLIMO NORMS), W/ SLIGHT CHC OR LESS OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST PW VALUES WILL ALSO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD...LINGERING AROUND +2 S.D. ABOVE NORMAL. ACCORDINGLY, WE`LL
NEED TO BE ON GUARD FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, WITH THIS INCREASED HUMIDITY/DEWPOINTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD, CONTINUED TO RIDE ON THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE WITH
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...GENERALLY FAVORING A TYPICAL
MID-JULY WARM/MODERATELY HUMID SET UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 INLAND,
WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS 65 TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARM FRNTL BNDRY WILL LIFT JUST N OF THE REGION BY ARND MIDDAY...AS
LO PRES MOVES NNE FM SE VA TO JUST OFF THE DE/MD CST. THAT LO WILL
THEN TRACK NE OUT TO SEA THIS AFTN INTO SUN MORNG...PULLING THAT
BNDRY BACK S INTO NRN NC AS A COLD FRONT. SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO SUN MORNG...WITH THE BEST
CHCS SHIFTING FM THE ENTIRE REGION THIS MORNG...SWRD INTO SRN VA
AND NRN/NE NC THIS EVENG INTO SUN MORNG. EXPECT MAINLY VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS ACRS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE TIME...WITH IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT ANY TAF SITE THRU SUN MORNG...ESPLY DURING
THE MORNG HRS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU SUN NGT. UNSETTLED WX
CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
FRNTL BNDRY WAS LIFTING N ACRS THE WTRS EARLY THIS MORNG...AND
WILL LIFT JUST N OF THE AREA BY ARND MIDDAY AS LO PRES MOVES NNE
OFF THE DE/MD CST. WINDS WILL SHIFT FM THE ESE OVR THE LWR MD AND
VA ERN SHR...TO THE SW OR W DURING THIS MORNG TO ARND MIDDAY. THE
FRONT WILL THEN DROP BACK S OF THE AREA THIS EVENG INTO SUN
MORNG...AS SFC LO TRACKS NE OUT TO SEA. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT...SEAS
2-3 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/ESS
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 040845
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
445 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AREA OF SHRAS CONTG TO MOVE THROUGH ERN VA/PORTIONS OF LWR MD ERN
SHORE NEXT FEW HRS. SFC WARM FNT FM ABT THE LWR CHES BAY ON W
THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE PDMNT IN CNTRL VA ATTM...AND WILL CONT TO
MAKE SLO PROGRESS LIFTING NE OF THE RGN THROUGH MID/LT MRNG HRS.
WK SFC LO PRES WILL BE TRACKING THROUGH NRN VA TO OFF THE CNTRL
DELMARVA BY THIS AFTN. FNTL BNDRY WILL AGN SETTLE S INTO CNTRL/SRN
VA LT TDA. WILL HAVE CHC POPS (MNLY 30-40%) INTO THE THIS
AFTN...HIGHEST N AND W PORTIONS OF FA. MORE WIDESPREAD SHRAS/TSTMS
XPCD LT TDA AS THE BNDRY FM THE N PUSHES S AND COMBINES W/ DAYTIME
HEATING. ANOTHER RND OF MDT/HVY RA PSBL...ESP IN SCNTRL AND/OR SE
VA/NE NC (SOME OF THESE AREAS RECEIVED 1-3 INCHES FRI EVE). NOT
CONSIDERING ANY FLOOD WATCHES ATTM...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
TRENDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ADDITIONAL AVG QPF OF 1/2 INCH FM
CNTRL TO SRN VA...W/ LCLLY HIGHER AMTS (1-2 INCHES) PSBL. VRB
CLDS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TDA. HI TEMPS FM THE U70S-L80S N AND NW TO
THE U80S-ARND 90F S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
FNTL BNDRY STALLS INVOF VA/NC BORDER TNGT...THEN BEGINS TO MOVE
BACK N ONCE AGN LT SUN INTO MON AS LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE FM
THE GULF STATES TO THE CNTRL MTNS. THERE RMN SOME MDL
INCONSISTENCIES IN THIS SCENERIO...LARGELY RELATING TO TIMING AND
WHERE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF TAKES PLACE.

LINGERING SHRAS/TSTMS TNGT FAR SRN VA/NE NC WHILE DRYING OCCURS
OVR NNE PORTIONS OF THE FA (ESP AFT MDNGT). THE FAVORED AREA OF
ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS ON SUN LIKELY TO BE FM SCNTRL VA TO FAR SE
VA/NE NC INVOF STALLED FNTL BNDRY. MOSTLY CLOUDY S...PARTLY CLOUDY
NE TNGT THROUGH SUN. LO TEMPS FM THE M/U60S N TO THE U60S- L70S S.
HI TEMPS SUN MNLY IN THE L/M80S.

00Z/06 NAM FARTHER W W/ AXIS OF SGFNT PCPN SUN NGT INTO MON AS LO
PRES MOVES INTO THE CNTRL MTNS. WILL HAVE POPS GRADUALLY INCRSG
INTO CNTRL/INTERIOR ERN VA INTO MON...WHILE KEEPING POPS LWR AT
MUCH OF THE CST. MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB
CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH MON XPCD TO AVG 1-1.5 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL
VA TO INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF ABT 1/2 INCH OVR THE
LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL
DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR REPEATING
SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY CONTINUED LOW AMPLITUDE
UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH GRADUAL RE-REEMERGENCE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT THAT WITH OCCASIONAL UPPER
DISTURBANCES/PERTURBATIONS PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC,
AS WEAK SFC TROUGH PERSISTS IN PLACE OVERHEAD, MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHC
RANGE BY DAY (NEAR CLIMO NORMS), W/ SLIGHT CHC OR LESS OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST PW VALUES WILL ALSO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD...LINGERING AROUND +2 S.D. ABOVE NORMAL. ACCORDINGLY, WE`LL
NEED TO BE ON GUARD FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, WITH THIS INCREASED HUMIDITY/DEWPOINTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD, CONTINUED TO RIDE ON THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE WITH
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...GENERALLY FAVORING A TYPICAL
MID-JULY WARM/MODERATELY HUMID SET UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 INLAND,
WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS 65 TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARM FRNTL BNDRY WILL LIFT JUST N OF THE REGION BY ARND MIDDAY...AS
LO PRES MOVES NNE FM SE VA TO JUST OFF THE DE/MD CST. THAT LO WILL
THEN TRACK NE OUT TO SEA THIS AFTN INTO SUN MORNG...PULLING THAT
BNDRY BACK S INTO NRN NC AS A COLD FRONT. SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO SUN MORNG...WITH THE BEST
CHCS SHIFTING FM THE ENTIRE REGION THIS MORNG...SWRD INTO SRN VA
AND NRN/NE NC THIS EVENG INTO SUN MORNG. EXPECT MAINLY VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS ACRS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE TIME...WITH IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT ANY TAF SITE THRU SUN MORNG...ESPLY DURING
THE MORNG HRS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU SUN NGT. UNSETTLED WX
CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
FRNTL BNDRY WAS LIFTING N ACRS THE WTRS EARLY THIS MORNG...AND
WILL LIFT JUST N OF THE AREA BY ARND MIDDAY AS LO PRES MOVES NNE
OFF THE DE/MD CST. WINDS WILL SHIFT FM THE ESE OVR THE LWR MD AND
VA ERN SHR...TO THE SW OR W DURING THIS MORNG TO ARND MIDDAY. THE
FRONT WILL THEN DROP BACK S OF THE AREA THIS EVENG INTO SUN
MORNG...AS SFC LO TRACKS NE OUT TO SEA. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT...SEAS
2-3 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/ESS
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 040845
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
445 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AREA OF SHRAS CONTG TO MOVE THROUGH ERN VA/PORTIONS OF LWR MD ERN
SHORE NEXT FEW HRS. SFC WARM FNT FM ABT THE LWR CHES BAY ON W
THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE PDMNT IN CNTRL VA ATTM...AND WILL CONT TO
MAKE SLO PROGRESS LIFTING NE OF THE RGN THROUGH MID/LT MRNG HRS.
WK SFC LO PRES WILL BE TRACKING THROUGH NRN VA TO OFF THE CNTRL
DELMARVA BY THIS AFTN. FNTL BNDRY WILL AGN SETTLE S INTO CNTRL/SRN
VA LT TDA. WILL HAVE CHC POPS (MNLY 30-40%) INTO THE THIS
AFTN...HIGHEST N AND W PORTIONS OF FA. MORE WIDESPREAD SHRAS/TSTMS
XPCD LT TDA AS THE BNDRY FM THE N PUSHES S AND COMBINES W/ DAYTIME
HEATING. ANOTHER RND OF MDT/HVY RA PSBL...ESP IN SCNTRL AND/OR SE
VA/NE NC (SOME OF THESE AREAS RECEIVED 1-3 INCHES FRI EVE). NOT
CONSIDERING ANY FLOOD WATCHES ATTM...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
TRENDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ADDITIONAL AVG QPF OF 1/2 INCH FM
CNTRL TO SRN VA...W/ LCLLY HIGHER AMTS (1-2 INCHES) PSBL. VRB
CLDS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TDA. HI TEMPS FM THE U70S-L80S N AND NW TO
THE U80S-ARND 90F S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
FNTL BNDRY STALLS INVOF VA/NC BORDER TNGT...THEN BEGINS TO MOVE
BACK N ONCE AGN LT SUN INTO MON AS LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE FM
THE GULF STATES TO THE CNTRL MTNS. THERE RMN SOME MDL
INCONSISTENCIES IN THIS SCENERIO...LARGELY RELATING TO TIMING AND
WHERE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF TAKES PLACE.

LINGERING SHRAS/TSTMS TNGT FAR SRN VA/NE NC WHILE DRYING OCCURS
OVR NNE PORTIONS OF THE FA (ESP AFT MDNGT). THE FAVORED AREA OF
ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS ON SUN LIKELY TO BE FM SCNTRL VA TO FAR SE
VA/NE NC INVOF STALLED FNTL BNDRY. MOSTLY CLOUDY S...PARTLY CLOUDY
NE TNGT THROUGH SUN. LO TEMPS FM THE M/U60S N TO THE U60S- L70S S.
HI TEMPS SUN MNLY IN THE L/M80S.

00Z/06 NAM FARTHER W W/ AXIS OF SGFNT PCPN SUN NGT INTO MON AS LO
PRES MOVES INTO THE CNTRL MTNS. WILL HAVE POPS GRADUALLY INCRSG
INTO CNTRL/INTERIOR ERN VA INTO MON...WHILE KEEPING POPS LWR AT
MUCH OF THE CST. MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB
CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH MON XPCD TO AVG 1-1.5 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL
VA TO INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF ABT 1/2 INCH OVR THE
LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL
DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR REPEATING
SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY CONTINUED LOW AMPLITUDE
UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH GRADUAL RE-REEMERGENCE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT THAT WITH OCCASIONAL UPPER
DISTURBANCES/PERTURBATIONS PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC,
AS WEAK SFC TROUGH PERSISTS IN PLACE OVERHEAD, MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHC
RANGE BY DAY (NEAR CLIMO NORMS), W/ SLIGHT CHC OR LESS OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST PW VALUES WILL ALSO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD...LINGERING AROUND +2 S.D. ABOVE NORMAL. ACCORDINGLY, WE`LL
NEED TO BE ON GUARD FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, WITH THIS INCREASED HUMIDITY/DEWPOINTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD, CONTINUED TO RIDE ON THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE WITH
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...GENERALLY FAVORING A TYPICAL
MID-JULY WARM/MODERATELY HUMID SET UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 INLAND,
WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS 65 TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARM FRNTL BNDRY WILL LIFT JUST N OF THE REGION BY ARND MIDDAY...AS
LO PRES MOVES NNE FM SE VA TO JUST OFF THE DE/MD CST. THAT LO WILL
THEN TRACK NE OUT TO SEA THIS AFTN INTO SUN MORNG...PULLING THAT
BNDRY BACK S INTO NRN NC AS A COLD FRONT. SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO SUN MORNG...WITH THE BEST
CHCS SHIFTING FM THE ENTIRE REGION THIS MORNG...SWRD INTO SRN VA
AND NRN/NE NC THIS EVENG INTO SUN MORNG. EXPECT MAINLY VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS ACRS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE TIME...WITH IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT ANY TAF SITE THRU SUN MORNG...ESPLY DURING
THE MORNG HRS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU SUN NGT. UNSETTLED WX
CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
FRNTL BNDRY WAS LIFTING N ACRS THE WTRS EARLY THIS MORNG...AND
WILL LIFT JUST N OF THE AREA BY ARND MIDDAY AS LO PRES MOVES NNE
OFF THE DE/MD CST. WINDS WILL SHIFT FM THE ESE OVR THE LWR MD AND
VA ERN SHR...TO THE SW OR W DURING THIS MORNG TO ARND MIDDAY. THE
FRONT WILL THEN DROP BACK S OF THE AREA THIS EVENG INTO SUN
MORNG...AS SFC LO TRACKS NE OUT TO SEA. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT...SEAS
2-3 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/ESS
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 040845
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
445 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AREA OF SHRAS CONTG TO MOVE THROUGH ERN VA/PORTIONS OF LWR MD ERN
SHORE NEXT FEW HRS. SFC WARM FNT FM ABT THE LWR CHES BAY ON W
THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE PDMNT IN CNTRL VA ATTM...AND WILL CONT TO
MAKE SLO PROGRESS LIFTING NE OF THE RGN THROUGH MID/LT MRNG HRS.
WK SFC LO PRES WILL BE TRACKING THROUGH NRN VA TO OFF THE CNTRL
DELMARVA BY THIS AFTN. FNTL BNDRY WILL AGN SETTLE S INTO CNTRL/SRN
VA LT TDA. WILL HAVE CHC POPS (MNLY 30-40%) INTO THE THIS
AFTN...HIGHEST N AND W PORTIONS OF FA. MORE WIDESPREAD SHRAS/TSTMS
XPCD LT TDA AS THE BNDRY FM THE N PUSHES S AND COMBINES W/ DAYTIME
HEATING. ANOTHER RND OF MDT/HVY RA PSBL...ESP IN SCNTRL AND/OR SE
VA/NE NC (SOME OF THESE AREAS RECEIVED 1-3 INCHES FRI EVE). NOT
CONSIDERING ANY FLOOD WATCHES ATTM...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
TRENDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ADDITIONAL AVG QPF OF 1/2 INCH FM
CNTRL TO SRN VA...W/ LCLLY HIGHER AMTS (1-2 INCHES) PSBL. VRB
CLDS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TDA. HI TEMPS FM THE U70S-L80S N AND NW TO
THE U80S-ARND 90F S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
FNTL BNDRY STALLS INVOF VA/NC BORDER TNGT...THEN BEGINS TO MOVE
BACK N ONCE AGN LT SUN INTO MON AS LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE FM
THE GULF STATES TO THE CNTRL MTNS. THERE RMN SOME MDL
INCONSISTENCIES IN THIS SCENERIO...LARGELY RELATING TO TIMING AND
WHERE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF TAKES PLACE.

LINGERING SHRAS/TSTMS TNGT FAR SRN VA/NE NC WHILE DRYING OCCURS
OVR NNE PORTIONS OF THE FA (ESP AFT MDNGT). THE FAVORED AREA OF
ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS ON SUN LIKELY TO BE FM SCNTRL VA TO FAR SE
VA/NE NC INVOF STALLED FNTL BNDRY. MOSTLY CLOUDY S...PARTLY CLOUDY
NE TNGT THROUGH SUN. LO TEMPS FM THE M/U60S N TO THE U60S- L70S S.
HI TEMPS SUN MNLY IN THE L/M80S.

00Z/06 NAM FARTHER W W/ AXIS OF SGFNT PCPN SUN NGT INTO MON AS LO
PRES MOVES INTO THE CNTRL MTNS. WILL HAVE POPS GRADUALLY INCRSG
INTO CNTRL/INTERIOR ERN VA INTO MON...WHILE KEEPING POPS LWR AT
MUCH OF THE CST. MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB
CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH MON XPCD TO AVG 1-1.5 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL
VA TO INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF ABT 1/2 INCH OVR THE
LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL
DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR REPEATING
SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY CONTINUED LOW AMPLITUDE
UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH GRADUAL RE-REEMERGENCE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT THAT WITH OCCASIONAL UPPER
DISTURBANCES/PERTURBATIONS PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC,
AS WEAK SFC TROUGH PERSISTS IN PLACE OVERHEAD, MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHC
RANGE BY DAY (NEAR CLIMO NORMS), W/ SLIGHT CHC OR LESS OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST PW VALUES WILL ALSO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD...LINGERING AROUND +2 S.D. ABOVE NORMAL. ACCORDINGLY, WE`LL
NEED TO BE ON GUARD FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, WITH THIS INCREASED HUMIDITY/DEWPOINTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD, CONTINUED TO RIDE ON THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE WITH
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...GENERALLY FAVORING A TYPICAL
MID-JULY WARM/MODERATELY HUMID SET UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 INLAND,
WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS 65 TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARM FRNTL BNDRY WILL LIFT JUST N OF THE REGION BY ARND MIDDAY...AS
LO PRES MOVES NNE FM SE VA TO JUST OFF THE DE/MD CST. THAT LO WILL
THEN TRACK NE OUT TO SEA THIS AFTN INTO SUN MORNG...PULLING THAT
BNDRY BACK S INTO NRN NC AS A COLD FRONT. SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO SUN MORNG...WITH THE BEST
CHCS SHIFTING FM THE ENTIRE REGION THIS MORNG...SWRD INTO SRN VA
AND NRN/NE NC THIS EVENG INTO SUN MORNG. EXPECT MAINLY VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS ACRS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE TIME...WITH IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT ANY TAF SITE THRU SUN MORNG...ESPLY DURING
THE MORNG HRS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU SUN NGT. UNSETTLED WX
CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
FRNTL BNDRY WAS LIFTING N ACRS THE WTRS EARLY THIS MORNG...AND
WILL LIFT JUST N OF THE AREA BY ARND MIDDAY AS LO PRES MOVES NNE
OFF THE DE/MD CST. WINDS WILL SHIFT FM THE ESE OVR THE LWR MD AND
VA ERN SHR...TO THE SW OR W DURING THIS MORNG TO ARND MIDDAY. THE
FRONT WILL THEN DROP BACK S OF THE AREA THIS EVENG INTO SUN
MORNG...AS SFC LO TRACKS NE OUT TO SEA. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT...SEAS
2-3 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/ESS
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 040845
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
445 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AREA OF SHRAS CONTG TO MOVE THROUGH ERN VA/PORTIONS OF LWR MD ERN
SHORE NEXT FEW HRS. SFC WARM FNT FM ABT THE LWR CHES BAY ON W
THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE PDMNT IN CNTRL VA ATTM...AND WILL CONT TO
MAKE SLO PROGRESS LIFTING NE OF THE RGN THROUGH MID/LT MRNG HRS.
WK SFC LO PRES WILL BE TRACKING THROUGH NRN VA TO OFF THE CNTRL
DELMARVA BY THIS AFTN. FNTL BNDRY WILL AGN SETTLE S INTO CNTRL/SRN
VA LT TDA. WILL HAVE CHC POPS (MNLY 30-40%) INTO THE THIS
AFTN...HIGHEST N AND W PORTIONS OF FA. MORE WIDESPREAD SHRAS/TSTMS
XPCD LT TDA AS THE BNDRY FM THE N PUSHES S AND COMBINES W/ DAYTIME
HEATING. ANOTHER RND OF MDT/HVY RA PSBL...ESP IN SCNTRL AND/OR SE
VA/NE NC (SOME OF THESE AREAS RECEIVED 1-3 INCHES FRI EVE). NOT
CONSIDERING ANY FLOOD WATCHES ATTM...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
TRENDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ADDITIONAL AVG QPF OF 1/2 INCH FM
CNTRL TO SRN VA...W/ LCLLY HIGHER AMTS (1-2 INCHES) PSBL. VRB
CLDS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TDA. HI TEMPS FM THE U70S-L80S N AND NW TO
THE U80S-ARND 90F S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
FNTL BNDRY STALLS INVOF VA/NC BORDER TNGT...THEN BEGINS TO MOVE
BACK N ONCE AGN LT SUN INTO MON AS LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE FM
THE GULF STATES TO THE CNTRL MTNS. THERE RMN SOME MDL
INCONSISTENCIES IN THIS SCENERIO...LARGELY RELATING TO TIMING AND
WHERE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF TAKES PLACE.

LINGERING SHRAS/TSTMS TNGT FAR SRN VA/NE NC WHILE DRYING OCCURS
OVR NNE PORTIONS OF THE FA (ESP AFT MDNGT). THE FAVORED AREA OF
ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS ON SUN LIKELY TO BE FM SCNTRL VA TO FAR SE
VA/NE NC INVOF STALLED FNTL BNDRY. MOSTLY CLOUDY S...PARTLY CLOUDY
NE TNGT THROUGH SUN. LO TEMPS FM THE M/U60S N TO THE U60S- L70S S.
HI TEMPS SUN MNLY IN THE L/M80S.

00Z/06 NAM FARTHER W W/ AXIS OF SGFNT PCPN SUN NGT INTO MON AS LO
PRES MOVES INTO THE CNTRL MTNS. WILL HAVE POPS GRADUALLY INCRSG
INTO CNTRL/INTERIOR ERN VA INTO MON...WHILE KEEPING POPS LWR AT
MUCH OF THE CST. MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB
CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH MON XPCD TO AVG 1-1.5 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL
VA TO INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF ABT 1/2 INCH OVR THE
LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL
DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR REPEATING
SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY CONTINUED LOW AMPLITUDE
UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH GRADUAL RE-REEMERGENCE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT THAT WITH OCCASIONAL UPPER
DISTURBANCES/PERTURBATIONS PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC,
AS WEAK SFC TROUGH PERSISTS IN PLACE OVERHEAD, MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHC
RANGE BY DAY (NEAR CLIMO NORMS), W/ SLIGHT CHC OR LESS OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST PW VALUES WILL ALSO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD...LINGERING AROUND +2 S.D. ABOVE NORMAL. ACCORDINGLY, WE`LL
NEED TO BE ON GUARD FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, WITH THIS INCREASED HUMIDITY/DEWPOINTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD, CONTINUED TO RIDE ON THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE WITH
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...GENERALLY FAVORING A TYPICAL
MID-JULY WARM/MODERATELY HUMID SET UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 INLAND,
WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS 65 TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARM FRNTL BNDRY WILL LIFT JUST N OF THE REGION BY ARND MIDDAY...AS
LO PRES MOVES NNE FM SE VA TO JUST OFF THE DE/MD CST. THAT LO WILL
THEN TRACK NE OUT TO SEA THIS AFTN INTO SUN MORNG...PULLING THAT
BNDRY BACK S INTO NRN NC AS A COLD FRONT. SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO SUN MORNG...WITH THE BEST
CHCS SHIFTING FM THE ENTIRE REGION THIS MORNG...SWRD INTO SRN VA
AND NRN/NE NC THIS EVENG INTO SUN MORNG. EXPECT MAINLY VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS ACRS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE TIME...WITH IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT ANY TAF SITE THRU SUN MORNG...ESPLY DURING
THE MORNG HRS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU SUN NGT. UNSETTLED WX
CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
FRNTL BNDRY WAS LIFTING N ACRS THE WTRS EARLY THIS MORNG...AND
WILL LIFT JUST N OF THE AREA BY ARND MIDDAY AS LO PRES MOVES NNE
OFF THE DE/MD CST. WINDS WILL SHIFT FM THE ESE OVR THE LWR MD AND
VA ERN SHR...TO THE SW OR W DURING THIS MORNG TO ARND MIDDAY. THE
FRONT WILL THEN DROP BACK S OF THE AREA THIS EVENG INTO SUN
MORNG...AS SFC LO TRACKS NE OUT TO SEA. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT...SEAS
2-3 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/ESS
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 040802
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
402 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AREA OF SHRAS CONTG TO MOVE THROUGH ERN VA/PORTIONS OF LWR MD ERN
SHORE NEXT FEW HRS. SFC WARM FNT FM ABT THE LWR CHES BAY ON W
THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE PDMNT IN CNTRL VA ATTM...AND WILL CONT TO
MAKE SLO PROGRESS LIFTING NE OF THE RGN THROUGH MID/LT MRNG HRS.
WK SFC LO PRES WILL BE TRACKING THROUGH NRN VA TO OFF THE CNTRL
DELMARVA BY THIS AFTN. FNTL BNDRY WILL AGN SETTLE S INTO CNTRL/SRN
VA LT TDA. WILL HAVE CHC POPS (MNLY 30-40%) INTO THE THIS
AFTN...HIGHEST N AND W PORTIONS OF FA. MORE WIDESPREAD SHRAS/TSTMS
XPCD LT TDA AS THE BNDRY FM THE N PUSHES S AND COMBINES W/ DAYTIME
HEATING. ANOTHER RND OF MDT/HVY RA PSBL...ESP IN SCNTRL AND/OR SE
VA/NE NC (SOME OF THESE AREAS RECEIVED 1-3 INCHES FRI EVE). NOT
CONSIDERING ANY FLOOD WATCHES ATTM...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
TRENDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ADDITIONAL AVG QPF OF 1/2 INCH FM
CNTRL TO SRN VA...W/ LCLLY HIGHER AMTS (1-2 INCHES) PSBL. VRB
CLDS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TDA. HI TEMPS FM THE U70S-L80S N AND NW TO
THE U80S-ARND 90F S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
FNTL BNDRY STALLS INVOF VA/NC BORDER TNGT...THEN BEGINS TO MOVE
BACK N ONCE AGN LT SUN INTO MON AS LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE FM
THE GULF STATES TO THE CNTRL MTNS. THERE RMN SOME MDL
INCONSISTENCIES IN THIS SCENERIO...LARGELY RELATING TO TIMING AND
WHERE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF TAKES PLACE.

LINGERING SHRAS/TSTMS TNGT FAR SRN VA/NE NC WHILE DRYING OCCURS
OVR NNE PORTIONS OF THE FA (ESP AFT MDNGT). THE FAVORED AREA OF
ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS ON SUN LIKELY TO BE FM SCNTRL VA TO FAR SE
VA/NE NC INVOF STALLED FNTL BNDRY. MOSTLY CLOUDY S...PARTLY CLOUDY
NE TNGT THROUGH SUN. LO TEMPS FM THE M/U60S N TO THE U60S- L70S S.
HI TEMPS SUN MNLY IN THE L/M80S.

00Z/06 NAM FARTHER W W/ AXIS OF SGFNT PCPN SUN NGT INTO MON AS LO
PRES MOVES INTO THE CNTRL MTNS. WILL HAVE POPS GRADUALLY INCRSG
INTO CNTRL/INTERIOR ERN VA INTO MON...WHILE KEEPING POPS LWR AT
MUCH OF THE CST. MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB
CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH MON XPCD TO AVG 1-1.5 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL
VA TO INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF ABT 1/2 INCH OVR THE
LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL
DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR REPEATING
SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY CONTINUED LOW AMPLITUDE
UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH GRADUAL RE-REEMERGENCE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT THAT WITH OCCASIONAL UPPER
DISTURBANCES/PERTURBATIONS PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC,
AS WEAK SFC TROUGH PERSISTS IN PLACE OVERHEAD, MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHC
RANGE BY DAY (NEAR CLIMO NORMS), W/ SLIGHT CHC OR LESS OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST PW VALUES WILL ALSO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD...LINGERING AROUND +2 S.D. ABOVE NORMAL. ACCORDINGLY, WE`LL
NEED TO BE ON GUARD FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, WITH THIS INCREASED HUMIDITY/DEWPOINTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD, CONTINUED TO RIDE ON THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE WITH
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...GENERALLY FAVORING A TYPICAL
MID-JULY WARM/MODERATELY HUMID SET UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 INLAND,
WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS 65 TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARM FRNTL BNDRY WILL LIFT JUST N OF THE REGION THIS MORNG...AS
LO PRES MOVES NNE FM SE VA TO JUST OFF THE DE/MD CST. THAT LO WILL
THEN TRACK NE OUT TO SEA THIS AFTN INTO SUN MORNG...PULLING THAT
BNDRY BACK S INTO NRN NC AS A COLD FRONT. SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO SUN MORNG...WITH THE BEST
CHCS SHIFTING FM THE ENTIRE REGION THIS MORNG...SWRD INTO SRN VA
AND NRN/NE NC THIS EVENG INTO SUN MORNG. EXPECT MAINLY VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS ACRS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE TIME...WITH IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT ANY TAF SITE THRU SUN MORNG...ESPLY DURING
THE MORNG HRS.

&&

.MARINE...
UNSETTLED WX CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS OVER THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LATEST OBS REFLECT E-SE FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY LYING JUST TO OUR SOUTH THIS
AFTN. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING
(BRIEF HVY RAIN POSSIBLE IN ANY TSTORMS THIS EVENING). RESULTANT
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN WINDS INCREASING AND VEERING
AROUND TO THE S-SE TONIGHT, WITH A SMALL 3-6 HOUR WINDOW OF MARGINAL
SCA CONDS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER BAY TOWARDS THE MOUTH OF CHES BAY.
HAVE HOSTED SCA IN THE CHES BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT FOR WINDS
TO LOW END SCA FOR A BRIEF PERIOD TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.
THE MEANDERING FRONT WILL DROP BACK SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING
W/SFC LOW EXITING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST SOUTH OF CAPE COD. WAVES
AVG 1-2 FT...SEAS 2-4FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/ESS
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 040802
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
402 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AREA OF SHRAS CONTG TO MOVE THROUGH ERN VA/PORTIONS OF LWR MD ERN
SHORE NEXT FEW HRS. SFC WARM FNT FM ABT THE LWR CHES BAY ON W
THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE PDMNT IN CNTRL VA ATTM...AND WILL CONT TO
MAKE SLO PROGRESS LIFTING NE OF THE RGN THROUGH MID/LT MRNG HRS.
WK SFC LO PRES WILL BE TRACKING THROUGH NRN VA TO OFF THE CNTRL
DELMARVA BY THIS AFTN. FNTL BNDRY WILL AGN SETTLE S INTO CNTRL/SRN
VA LT TDA. WILL HAVE CHC POPS (MNLY 30-40%) INTO THE THIS
AFTN...HIGHEST N AND W PORTIONS OF FA. MORE WIDESPREAD SHRAS/TSTMS
XPCD LT TDA AS THE BNDRY FM THE N PUSHES S AND COMBINES W/ DAYTIME
HEATING. ANOTHER RND OF MDT/HVY RA PSBL...ESP IN SCNTRL AND/OR SE
VA/NE NC (SOME OF THESE AREAS RECEIVED 1-3 INCHES FRI EVE). NOT
CONSIDERING ANY FLOOD WATCHES ATTM...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
TRENDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ADDITIONAL AVG QPF OF 1/2 INCH FM
CNTRL TO SRN VA...W/ LCLLY HIGHER AMTS (1-2 INCHES) PSBL. VRB
CLDS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TDA. HI TEMPS FM THE U70S-L80S N AND NW TO
THE U80S-ARND 90F S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
FNTL BNDRY STALLS INVOF VA/NC BORDER TNGT...THEN BEGINS TO MOVE
BACK N ONCE AGN LT SUN INTO MON AS LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE FM
THE GULF STATES TO THE CNTRL MTNS. THERE RMN SOME MDL
INCONSISTENCIES IN THIS SCENERIO...LARGELY RELATING TO TIMING AND
WHERE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF TAKES PLACE.

LINGERING SHRAS/TSTMS TNGT FAR SRN VA/NE NC WHILE DRYING OCCURS
OVR NNE PORTIONS OF THE FA (ESP AFT MDNGT). THE FAVORED AREA OF
ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS ON SUN LIKELY TO BE FM SCNTRL VA TO FAR SE
VA/NE NC INVOF STALLED FNTL BNDRY. MOSTLY CLOUDY S...PARTLY CLOUDY
NE TNGT THROUGH SUN. LO TEMPS FM THE M/U60S N TO THE U60S- L70S S.
HI TEMPS SUN MNLY IN THE L/M80S.

00Z/06 NAM FARTHER W W/ AXIS OF SGFNT PCPN SUN NGT INTO MON AS LO
PRES MOVES INTO THE CNTRL MTNS. WILL HAVE POPS GRADUALLY INCRSG
INTO CNTRL/INTERIOR ERN VA INTO MON...WHILE KEEPING POPS LWR AT
MUCH OF THE CST. MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB
CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH MON XPCD TO AVG 1-1.5 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL
VA TO INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF ABT 1/2 INCH OVR THE
LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL
DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR REPEATING
SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY CONTINUED LOW AMPLITUDE
UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH GRADUAL RE-REEMERGENCE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT THAT WITH OCCASIONAL UPPER
DISTURBANCES/PERTURBATIONS PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC,
AS WEAK SFC TROUGH PERSISTS IN PLACE OVERHEAD, MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHC
RANGE BY DAY (NEAR CLIMO NORMS), W/ SLIGHT CHC OR LESS OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST PW VALUES WILL ALSO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD...LINGERING AROUND +2 S.D. ABOVE NORMAL. ACCORDINGLY, WE`LL
NEED TO BE ON GUARD FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, WITH THIS INCREASED HUMIDITY/DEWPOINTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD, CONTINUED TO RIDE ON THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE WITH
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...GENERALLY FAVORING A TYPICAL
MID-JULY WARM/MODERATELY HUMID SET UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 INLAND,
WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS 65 TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARM FRNTL BNDRY WILL LIFT JUST N OF THE REGION THIS MORNG...AS
LO PRES MOVES NNE FM SE VA TO JUST OFF THE DE/MD CST. THAT LO WILL
THEN TRACK NE OUT TO SEA THIS AFTN INTO SUN MORNG...PULLING THAT
BNDRY BACK S INTO NRN NC AS A COLD FRONT. SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO SUN MORNG...WITH THE BEST
CHCS SHIFTING FM THE ENTIRE REGION THIS MORNG...SWRD INTO SRN VA
AND NRN/NE NC THIS EVENG INTO SUN MORNG. EXPECT MAINLY VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS ACRS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE TIME...WITH IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT ANY TAF SITE THRU SUN MORNG...ESPLY DURING
THE MORNG HRS.

&&

.MARINE...
UNSETTLED WX CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS OVER THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LATEST OBS REFLECT E-SE FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY LYING JUST TO OUR SOUTH THIS
AFTN. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING
(BRIEF HVY RAIN POSSIBLE IN ANY TSTORMS THIS EVENING). RESULTANT
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN WINDS INCREASING AND VEERING
AROUND TO THE S-SE TONIGHT, WITH A SMALL 3-6 HOUR WINDOW OF MARGINAL
SCA CONDS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER BAY TOWARDS THE MOUTH OF CHES BAY.
HAVE HOSTED SCA IN THE CHES BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT FOR WINDS
TO LOW END SCA FOR A BRIEF PERIOD TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.
THE MEANDERING FRONT WILL DROP BACK SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING
W/SFC LOW EXITING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST SOUTH OF CAPE COD. WAVES
AVG 1-2 FT...SEAS 2-4FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/ESS
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 040802
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
402 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AREA OF SHRAS CONTG TO MOVE THROUGH ERN VA/PORTIONS OF LWR MD ERN
SHORE NEXT FEW HRS. SFC WARM FNT FM ABT THE LWR CHES BAY ON W
THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE PDMNT IN CNTRL VA ATTM...AND WILL CONT TO
MAKE SLO PROGRESS LIFTING NE OF THE RGN THROUGH MID/LT MRNG HRS.
WK SFC LO PRES WILL BE TRACKING THROUGH NRN VA TO OFF THE CNTRL
DELMARVA BY THIS AFTN. FNTL BNDRY WILL AGN SETTLE S INTO CNTRL/SRN
VA LT TDA. WILL HAVE CHC POPS (MNLY 30-40%) INTO THE THIS
AFTN...HIGHEST N AND W PORTIONS OF FA. MORE WIDESPREAD SHRAS/TSTMS
XPCD LT TDA AS THE BNDRY FM THE N PUSHES S AND COMBINES W/ DAYTIME
HEATING. ANOTHER RND OF MDT/HVY RA PSBL...ESP IN SCNTRL AND/OR SE
VA/NE NC (SOME OF THESE AREAS RECEIVED 1-3 INCHES FRI EVE). NOT
CONSIDERING ANY FLOOD WATCHES ATTM...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
TRENDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ADDITIONAL AVG QPF OF 1/2 INCH FM
CNTRL TO SRN VA...W/ LCLLY HIGHER AMTS (1-2 INCHES) PSBL. VRB
CLDS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TDA. HI TEMPS FM THE U70S-L80S N AND NW TO
THE U80S-ARND 90F S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
FNTL BNDRY STALLS INVOF VA/NC BORDER TNGT...THEN BEGINS TO MOVE
BACK N ONCE AGN LT SUN INTO MON AS LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE FM
THE GULF STATES TO THE CNTRL MTNS. THERE RMN SOME MDL
INCONSISTENCIES IN THIS SCENERIO...LARGELY RELATING TO TIMING AND
WHERE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF TAKES PLACE.

LINGERING SHRAS/TSTMS TNGT FAR SRN VA/NE NC WHILE DRYING OCCURS
OVR NNE PORTIONS OF THE FA (ESP AFT MDNGT). THE FAVORED AREA OF
ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS ON SUN LIKELY TO BE FM SCNTRL VA TO FAR SE
VA/NE NC INVOF STALLED FNTL BNDRY. MOSTLY CLOUDY S...PARTLY CLOUDY
NE TNGT THROUGH SUN. LO TEMPS FM THE M/U60S N TO THE U60S- L70S S.
HI TEMPS SUN MNLY IN THE L/M80S.

00Z/06 NAM FARTHER W W/ AXIS OF SGFNT PCPN SUN NGT INTO MON AS LO
PRES MOVES INTO THE CNTRL MTNS. WILL HAVE POPS GRADUALLY INCRSG
INTO CNTRL/INTERIOR ERN VA INTO MON...WHILE KEEPING POPS LWR AT
MUCH OF THE CST. MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB
CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH MON XPCD TO AVG 1-1.5 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL
VA TO INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF ABT 1/2 INCH OVR THE
LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL
DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR REPEATING
SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY CONTINUED LOW AMPLITUDE
UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH GRADUAL RE-REEMERGENCE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT THAT WITH OCCASIONAL UPPER
DISTURBANCES/PERTURBATIONS PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC,
AS WEAK SFC TROUGH PERSISTS IN PLACE OVERHEAD, MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHC
RANGE BY DAY (NEAR CLIMO NORMS), W/ SLIGHT CHC OR LESS OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST PW VALUES WILL ALSO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD...LINGERING AROUND +2 S.D. ABOVE NORMAL. ACCORDINGLY, WE`LL
NEED TO BE ON GUARD FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, WITH THIS INCREASED HUMIDITY/DEWPOINTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD, CONTINUED TO RIDE ON THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE WITH
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...GENERALLY FAVORING A TYPICAL
MID-JULY WARM/MODERATELY HUMID SET UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 INLAND,
WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS 65 TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARM FRNTL BNDRY WILL LIFT JUST N OF THE REGION THIS MORNG...AS
LO PRES MOVES NNE FM SE VA TO JUST OFF THE DE/MD CST. THAT LO WILL
THEN TRACK NE OUT TO SEA THIS AFTN INTO SUN MORNG...PULLING THAT
BNDRY BACK S INTO NRN NC AS A COLD FRONT. SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO SUN MORNG...WITH THE BEST
CHCS SHIFTING FM THE ENTIRE REGION THIS MORNG...SWRD INTO SRN VA
AND NRN/NE NC THIS EVENG INTO SUN MORNG. EXPECT MAINLY VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS ACRS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE TIME...WITH IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT ANY TAF SITE THRU SUN MORNG...ESPLY DURING
THE MORNG HRS.

&&

.MARINE...
UNSETTLED WX CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS OVER THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LATEST OBS REFLECT E-SE FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY LYING JUST TO OUR SOUTH THIS
AFTN. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING
(BRIEF HVY RAIN POSSIBLE IN ANY TSTORMS THIS EVENING). RESULTANT
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN WINDS INCREASING AND VEERING
AROUND TO THE S-SE TONIGHT, WITH A SMALL 3-6 HOUR WINDOW OF MARGINAL
SCA CONDS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER BAY TOWARDS THE MOUTH OF CHES BAY.
HAVE HOSTED SCA IN THE CHES BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT FOR WINDS
TO LOW END SCA FOR A BRIEF PERIOD TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.
THE MEANDERING FRONT WILL DROP BACK SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING
W/SFC LOW EXITING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST SOUTH OF CAPE COD. WAVES
AVG 1-2 FT...SEAS 2-4FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/ESS
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 040802
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
402 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AREA OF SHRAS CONTG TO MOVE THROUGH ERN VA/PORTIONS OF LWR MD ERN
SHORE NEXT FEW HRS. SFC WARM FNT FM ABT THE LWR CHES BAY ON W
THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE PDMNT IN CNTRL VA ATTM...AND WILL CONT TO
MAKE SLO PROGRESS LIFTING NE OF THE RGN THROUGH MID/LT MRNG HRS.
WK SFC LO PRES WILL BE TRACKING THROUGH NRN VA TO OFF THE CNTRL
DELMARVA BY THIS AFTN. FNTL BNDRY WILL AGN SETTLE S INTO CNTRL/SRN
VA LT TDA. WILL HAVE CHC POPS (MNLY 30-40%) INTO THE THIS
AFTN...HIGHEST N AND W PORTIONS OF FA. MORE WIDESPREAD SHRAS/TSTMS
XPCD LT TDA AS THE BNDRY FM THE N PUSHES S AND COMBINES W/ DAYTIME
HEATING. ANOTHER RND OF MDT/HVY RA PSBL...ESP IN SCNTRL AND/OR SE
VA/NE NC (SOME OF THESE AREAS RECEIVED 1-3 INCHES FRI EVE). NOT
CONSIDERING ANY FLOOD WATCHES ATTM...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
TRENDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ADDITIONAL AVG QPF OF 1/2 INCH FM
CNTRL TO SRN VA...W/ LCLLY HIGHER AMTS (1-2 INCHES) PSBL. VRB
CLDS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TDA. HI TEMPS FM THE U70S-L80S N AND NW TO
THE U80S-ARND 90F S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
FNTL BNDRY STALLS INVOF VA/NC BORDER TNGT...THEN BEGINS TO MOVE
BACK N ONCE AGN LT SUN INTO MON AS LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE FM
THE GULF STATES TO THE CNTRL MTNS. THERE RMN SOME MDL
INCONSISTENCIES IN THIS SCENERIO...LARGELY RELATING TO TIMING AND
WHERE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF TAKES PLACE.

LINGERING SHRAS/TSTMS TNGT FAR SRN VA/NE NC WHILE DRYING OCCURS
OVR NNE PORTIONS OF THE FA (ESP AFT MDNGT). THE FAVORED AREA OF
ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS ON SUN LIKELY TO BE FM SCNTRL VA TO FAR SE
VA/NE NC INVOF STALLED FNTL BNDRY. MOSTLY CLOUDY S...PARTLY CLOUDY
NE TNGT THROUGH SUN. LO TEMPS FM THE M/U60S N TO THE U60S- L70S S.
HI TEMPS SUN MNLY IN THE L/M80S.

00Z/06 NAM FARTHER W W/ AXIS OF SGFNT PCPN SUN NGT INTO MON AS LO
PRES MOVES INTO THE CNTRL MTNS. WILL HAVE POPS GRADUALLY INCRSG
INTO CNTRL/INTERIOR ERN VA INTO MON...WHILE KEEPING POPS LWR AT
MUCH OF THE CST. MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB
CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH MON XPCD TO AVG 1-1.5 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL
VA TO INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF ABT 1/2 INCH OVR THE
LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL
DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR REPEATING
SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY CONTINUED LOW AMPLITUDE
UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH GRADUAL RE-REEMERGENCE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT THAT WITH OCCASIONAL UPPER
DISTURBANCES/PERTURBATIONS PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC,
AS WEAK SFC TROUGH PERSISTS IN PLACE OVERHEAD, MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHC
RANGE BY DAY (NEAR CLIMO NORMS), W/ SLIGHT CHC OR LESS OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST PW VALUES WILL ALSO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD...LINGERING AROUND +2 S.D. ABOVE NORMAL. ACCORDINGLY, WE`LL
NEED TO BE ON GUARD FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, WITH THIS INCREASED HUMIDITY/DEWPOINTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD, CONTINUED TO RIDE ON THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE WITH
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...GENERALLY FAVORING A TYPICAL
MID-JULY WARM/MODERATELY HUMID SET UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 INLAND,
WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS 65 TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARM FRNTL BNDRY WILL LIFT JUST N OF THE REGION THIS MORNG...AS
LO PRES MOVES NNE FM SE VA TO JUST OFF THE DE/MD CST. THAT LO WILL
THEN TRACK NE OUT TO SEA THIS AFTN INTO SUN MORNG...PULLING THAT
BNDRY BACK S INTO NRN NC AS A COLD FRONT. SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO SUN MORNG...WITH THE BEST
CHCS SHIFTING FM THE ENTIRE REGION THIS MORNG...SWRD INTO SRN VA
AND NRN/NE NC THIS EVENG INTO SUN MORNG. EXPECT MAINLY VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS ACRS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE TIME...WITH IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT ANY TAF SITE THRU SUN MORNG...ESPLY DURING
THE MORNG HRS.

&&

.MARINE...
UNSETTLED WX CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS OVER THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LATEST OBS REFLECT E-SE FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY LYING JUST TO OUR SOUTH THIS
AFTN. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING
(BRIEF HVY RAIN POSSIBLE IN ANY TSTORMS THIS EVENING). RESULTANT
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN WINDS INCREASING AND VEERING
AROUND TO THE S-SE TONIGHT, WITH A SMALL 3-6 HOUR WINDOW OF MARGINAL
SCA CONDS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER BAY TOWARDS THE MOUTH OF CHES BAY.
HAVE HOSTED SCA IN THE CHES BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT FOR WINDS
TO LOW END SCA FOR A BRIEF PERIOD TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.
THE MEANDERING FRONT WILL DROP BACK SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING
W/SFC LOW EXITING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST SOUTH OF CAPE COD. WAVES
AVG 1-2 FT...SEAS 2-4FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/ESS
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG




000
FXUS61 KLWX 040800 CCA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT OVER
THE AREA TODAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT INTO
NORTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD SUNDAY
AND MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RETURN
TO THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...AS OF 07Z...AREA OF 1010MB MSLP
OVER WV WITH ANOTHER OVER SERN VA. THESE ARE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT HAS LIFTED NORTH AS A WARM FRONT FROM NC. THIS FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH TO AROUND DC TODAY WITH THE LOW TRACKING EAST
ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. NORTH OF THIS
TRACK/NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE STABLE/NO THUNDER TODAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE BOUNDARY.

OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY HAS BEEN RATHER LIGHT AND SCATTERED IN COVERAGE
AT BEST. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY COMING FROM WV WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
WITH MOST NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA WITH CATEGORIAL POPS FOR LOW
QPF THROUGH MID MORNING.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ROUGHLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ARC FROM ROUGHLY CUMBERLAND
MD TO DC AND SOUTH. THE FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT THIS
EVENING...WITH PRECIP SHUNTED SOUTH OF MOST OF THE CWA BY
SUNSET/FIREWORKS TIME.

BOTTOM LINE...EXPECT AFTERNOON SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH FROM THE FRONT/LOW. MAX TEMPS MID TO UPR 70S
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT AND LOW 80S SOUTH.

TONIGHT...PRECIP CLEARS AS DO THE CLOUDS. FOG DEVELOPS IN TYPICAL
PIEDMONT AND VALLEY LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS LOW TO MID 60S...UPR 60S
URBAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE.
SUNNY WITH A LIGHT/VARIABLE FLOW AND MAX TEMPS MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...AS HIGH PRES MOVES OFF
THE COAST SUN NIGHT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BEGIN TO RETURN NWD
IN DEEP LAYERED SRLY FLOW WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT SUN
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MON NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS DUE TO HIGH PWATS AOA
2.0 INCHES AND SINCE RAINS WILL BE NEAR AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

DRIER SW FLOW ESTABLISHES OVER THE AREA LATE TUE AND CONTINUES
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. LEE-SIDE TROFS APPEAR THE ONLY
MECHANISM TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...WARMER AND HUMID WITH
THE RISK OF ISOLD-SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EACH DAY.
FRONTS APPEAR TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA NEXT WEEK. SO
CONSIDERABLY WARMER NEXT WEEK THAN IT HAS BEEN RECENTLY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...WEAK COLD FRONT/LOW ACROSS
THE DC METROS TODAY...PUSHING SOUTH THIS EVENING. GENERALLY MVFR
CONDS IN LIKELY RAIN ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH SCT TSTMS DC AND
SOUTH. PATCHY FOG IN TYPICAL SPOTS TONIGHT...THEN VFR SUNDAY UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE.

IFR CIGS APPEAR LIKELY FOR KCHO LATE SUN NIGHT AND EARLY MON IN
RAIN IMPROVING TO MVFR MON AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS AGAIN MON NIGHT
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA WITH IFR CIGS LIKELY AT
KBWI AND KMTN.

&&

.MARINE...SCA FOR SELY FLOW THIS MORNING...SHIFTING NLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
GUSTING OVER SRN MD WATERS. SCA FOR SRN MD WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. NO
HAZARDS TONIGHT/SUNDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

SFC WINDS EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT
BUT STRENGTHEN TUE-TUE NIGHT DUE TO CHANNELING SRLY FLOW. THIS
MAY REQUIRE SCA.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MDZ011-014.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ017-
     018.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR VAZ054.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ532-540-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ533-
     534-537-543.
    SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR
   ANZ541. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING
FOR ANZ536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/LFR
NEAR TERM...BAJ
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...BAJ/LFR
AVIATION...BAJ/LFR
MARINE...BAJ/LFR




000
FXUS61 KLWX 040800 CCA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT OVER
THE AREA TODAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT INTO
NORTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD SUNDAY
AND MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RETURN
TO THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...AS OF 07Z...AREA OF 1010MB MSLP
OVER WV WITH ANOTHER OVER SERN VA. THESE ARE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT HAS LIFTED NORTH AS A WARM FRONT FROM NC. THIS FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH TO AROUND DC TODAY WITH THE LOW TRACKING EAST
ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. NORTH OF THIS
TRACK/NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE STABLE/NO THUNDER TODAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE BOUNDARY.

OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY HAS BEEN RATHER LIGHT AND SCATTERED IN COVERAGE
AT BEST. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY COMING FROM WV WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
WITH MOST NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA WITH CATEGORIAL POPS FOR LOW
QPF THROUGH MID MORNING.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ROUGHLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ARC FROM ROUGHLY CUMBERLAND
MD TO DC AND SOUTH. THE FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT THIS
EVENING...WITH PRECIP SHUNTED SOUTH OF MOST OF THE CWA BY
SUNSET/FIREWORKS TIME.

BOTTOM LINE...EXPECT AFTERNOON SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH FROM THE FRONT/LOW. MAX TEMPS MID TO UPR 70S
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT AND LOW 80S SOUTH.

TONIGHT...PRECIP CLEARS AS DO THE CLOUDS. FOG DEVELOPS IN TYPICAL
PIEDMONT AND VALLEY LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS LOW TO MID 60S...UPR 60S
URBAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE.
SUNNY WITH A LIGHT/VARIABLE FLOW AND MAX TEMPS MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...AS HIGH PRES MOVES OFF
THE COAST SUN NIGHT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BEGIN TO RETURN NWD
IN DEEP LAYERED SRLY FLOW WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT SUN
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MON NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS DUE TO HIGH PWATS AOA
2.0 INCHES AND SINCE RAINS WILL BE NEAR AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

DRIER SW FLOW ESTABLISHES OVER THE AREA LATE TUE AND CONTINUES
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. LEE-SIDE TROFS APPEAR THE ONLY
MECHANISM TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...WARMER AND HUMID WITH
THE RISK OF ISOLD-SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EACH DAY.
FRONTS APPEAR TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA NEXT WEEK. SO
CONSIDERABLY WARMER NEXT WEEK THAN IT HAS BEEN RECENTLY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...WEAK COLD FRONT/LOW ACROSS
THE DC METROS TODAY...PUSHING SOUTH THIS EVENING. GENERALLY MVFR
CONDS IN LIKELY RAIN ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH SCT TSTMS DC AND
SOUTH. PATCHY FOG IN TYPICAL SPOTS TONIGHT...THEN VFR SUNDAY UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE.

IFR CIGS APPEAR LIKELY FOR KCHO LATE SUN NIGHT AND EARLY MON IN
RAIN IMPROVING TO MVFR MON AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS AGAIN MON NIGHT
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA WITH IFR CIGS LIKELY AT
KBWI AND KMTN.

&&

.MARINE...SCA FOR SELY FLOW THIS MORNING...SHIFTING NLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
GUSTING OVER SRN MD WATERS. SCA FOR SRN MD WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. NO
HAZARDS TONIGHT/SUNDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

SFC WINDS EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT
BUT STRENGTHEN TUE-TUE NIGHT DUE TO CHANNELING SRLY FLOW. THIS
MAY REQUIRE SCA.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MDZ011-014.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ017-
     018.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR VAZ054.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ532-540-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ533-
     534-537-543.
    SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR
   ANZ541. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING
FOR ANZ536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/LFR
NEAR TERM...BAJ
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...BAJ/LFR
AVIATION...BAJ/LFR
MARINE...BAJ/LFR



000
FXUS61 KLWX 040800
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT OVER
THE AREA TODAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT INTO
NORTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD SUNDAY
AND MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RETURN
TO THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...AS OF 07Z...AREA OF 1010MB MSLP OVER WV WITH ANOTHER OVER SERN VA.
THESE ARE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS LIFTED NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT FROM NC. THIS FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH TO AROUND DC TODAY WITH
THE LOW TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
NORTH OF THIS TRACK/NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE STABLE/NO
THUNDER TODAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.

OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY HAS BEEN RATHER LIGHT AND SCATTERED IN COVERAGE
AT BEST. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY COMING FROM WV WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
WITH MOST NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA WITH CATEGORIAL POPS FOR LOW
QPF THROUGH MID MORNING.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ROUGHLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ARC FROM ROUGHLY CUMBERLAND
MD TO DC AND SOUTH. THE FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT THIS
EVENING...WITH PRECIP SHUNTED SOUTH OF MOST OF THE CWA BY
SUNSET/FIREWORKS TIME.

BOTTOM LINE...EXPECT AFTERNOON SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH FROM THE FRONT/LOW. MAX TEMPS MID TO UPR 70S
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT AND LOW 80S SOUTH.

TONIGHT...PRECIP CLEARS AS DO THE CLOUDS. FOG DEVELOPS IN TYPICAL
PIEDMONT AND VALLEY LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS LOW TO MID 60S...UPR 60S
URBAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE.
SUNNY WITH A LIGHT/VARIABLE FLOW AND MAX TEMPS MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...AS HIGH PRES MOVES OFF
THE COAST SUN NIGHT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BEGIN TO RETURN NWD
IN DEEP LAYERED SRLY FLOW WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT SUN
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MON NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS DUE TO HIGH PWATS AOA
2.0 INCHES AND SINCE RAINS WILL BE NEAR AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

DRIER SW FLOW ESTABLISHES OVER THE AREA LATE TUE AND CONTINUES
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. LEE-SIDE TROFS APPEAR THE ONLY
MECHANISM TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...WARMER AND HUMID WITH
THE RISK OF ISOLD-SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EACH DAY.
FRONTS APPEAR TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA NEXT WEEK. SO
CONSIDERABLY WARMER NEXT WEEK THAN IT HAS BEEN RECENTLY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...WEAK COLD FRONT/LOW ACROSS
THE DC METROS TODAY...PUSHING SOUTH THIS EVENING. GENERALLY MVFR
CONDS IN LIKELY RAIN ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH SCT TSTMS DC AND
SOUTH. PATCHY FOG IN TYPICAL SPOTS TONIGHT...THEN VFR SUNDAY UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE.

IFR CIGS APPEAR LIKELY FOR KCHO LATE SUN NIGHT AND EARLY MON IN
RAIN IMPROVING TO MVFR MON AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS AGAIN MON NIGHT
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA WITH IFR CIGS LIKELY AT
KBWI AND KMTN.

&&

.MARINE...SCA FOR SELY FLOW THIS MORNING...SHIFTING NLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
GUSTING OVER SRN MD WATERS. SCA FOR SRN MD WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. NO
HAZARDS TONIGHT/SUNDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

SFC WINDS EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT
BUT STRENGTHEN TUE-TUE NIGHT DUE TO CHANNELING SRLY FLOW. THIS
MAY REQUIRE SCA.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MDZ011-014.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ017-
     018.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR VAZ054.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ532-540-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ533-
     534-537-543.
    SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR
   ANZ541. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING
FOR ANZ536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/LFR
NEAR TERM...BAJ
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...BAJ/LFR
AVIATION...BAJ/LFR
MARINE...BAJ/LFR



000
FXUS61 KLWX 040800
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT OVER
THE AREA TODAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT INTO
NORTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD SUNDAY
AND MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RETURN
TO THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...AS OF 07Z...AREA OF 1010MB MSLP OVER WV WITH ANOTHER OVER SERN VA.
THESE ARE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS LIFTED NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT FROM NC. THIS FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH TO AROUND DC TODAY WITH
THE LOW TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
NORTH OF THIS TRACK/NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE STABLE/NO
THUNDER TODAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.

OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY HAS BEEN RATHER LIGHT AND SCATTERED IN COVERAGE
AT BEST. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY COMING FROM WV WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
WITH MOST NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA WITH CATEGORIAL POPS FOR LOW
QPF THROUGH MID MORNING.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ROUGHLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ARC FROM ROUGHLY CUMBERLAND
MD TO DC AND SOUTH. THE FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT THIS
EVENING...WITH PRECIP SHUNTED SOUTH OF MOST OF THE CWA BY
SUNSET/FIREWORKS TIME.

BOTTOM LINE...EXPECT AFTERNOON SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH FROM THE FRONT/LOW. MAX TEMPS MID TO UPR 70S
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT AND LOW 80S SOUTH.

TONIGHT...PRECIP CLEARS AS DO THE CLOUDS. FOG DEVELOPS IN TYPICAL
PIEDMONT AND VALLEY LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS LOW TO MID 60S...UPR 60S
URBAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE.
SUNNY WITH A LIGHT/VARIABLE FLOW AND MAX TEMPS MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...AS HIGH PRES MOVES OFF
THE COAST SUN NIGHT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BEGIN TO RETURN NWD
IN DEEP LAYERED SRLY FLOW WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT SUN
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MON NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS DUE TO HIGH PWATS AOA
2.0 INCHES AND SINCE RAINS WILL BE NEAR AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

DRIER SW FLOW ESTABLISHES OVER THE AREA LATE TUE AND CONTINUES
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. LEE-SIDE TROFS APPEAR THE ONLY
MECHANISM TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...WARMER AND HUMID WITH
THE RISK OF ISOLD-SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EACH DAY.
FRONTS APPEAR TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA NEXT WEEK. SO
CONSIDERABLY WARMER NEXT WEEK THAN IT HAS BEEN RECENTLY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...WEAK COLD FRONT/LOW ACROSS
THE DC METROS TODAY...PUSHING SOUTH THIS EVENING. GENERALLY MVFR
CONDS IN LIKELY RAIN ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH SCT TSTMS DC AND
SOUTH. PATCHY FOG IN TYPICAL SPOTS TONIGHT...THEN VFR SUNDAY UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE.

IFR CIGS APPEAR LIKELY FOR KCHO LATE SUN NIGHT AND EARLY MON IN
RAIN IMPROVING TO MVFR MON AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS AGAIN MON NIGHT
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA WITH IFR CIGS LIKELY AT
KBWI AND KMTN.

&&

.MARINE...SCA FOR SELY FLOW THIS MORNING...SHIFTING NLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
GUSTING OVER SRN MD WATERS. SCA FOR SRN MD WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. NO
HAZARDS TONIGHT/SUNDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

SFC WINDS EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT
BUT STRENGTHEN TUE-TUE NIGHT DUE TO CHANNELING SRLY FLOW. THIS
MAY REQUIRE SCA.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MDZ011-014.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ017-
     018.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR VAZ054.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ532-540-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ533-
     534-537-543.
    SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR
   ANZ541. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING
FOR ANZ536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/LFR
NEAR TERM...BAJ
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...BAJ/LFR
AVIATION...BAJ/LFR
MARINE...BAJ/LFR




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 040614
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
214 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WITH THE CHANCES FOR RAIN EACH DAY. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH
OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD
MOVE INTO THE THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 10 PM EDT...A BATCH OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN HAS
DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN VA THIS EVENING...EXTENDING
SOUTH INTO COASTAL NE NC. SOME IMPRESSIVE RAIN AMOUNTS OCCURRED
EARLIER THIS EVENING WITH LOCATIONS SUCH AS EDENTON AND ELIZABETH
CITY IN NE NC PICKING UP BETWEEN 1.00-2.25" OF RAIN IN AN HOUR OR
SO. LUCKILY...COUNTY OFFICIALS DID NOT REPORT ANY FLOODING ISSUES.
ELSEWHERE...RAIN AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.50-1.00" WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS HAVE FALLEN ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN VA SO FAR. THIS BATCH OF RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NORTH OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY
OVER NE NC LIFTS NORTH...AND A SFC LOW OVER THE OH VALLEY HEADS
FOR NOVA. HAVE LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA
OVERNIGHT...EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONING TO JUST THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE FA TOWARD DAYBREAK. QPF AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT WILL MAINLY BE ON
THE ORDER OF 0.25-1.00" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS (THESE TOTALS
DO NOT INCLUDE WHAT ALREADY FELL BEFORE 10 PM). LOWS OVERNIGHT IN
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

SATURDAY...THE SFC LOW WILL BE EXITING OFF THE COAST AND WILL
PUSH OFF THE COAST AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH PULLS OFF THE COAST.
THIS WILL PULL THE FRONT BACK TOWARD THE SOUTH...BUT WITHOUT A
STRONG NW PUSH...THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE AND THIS WILL
ALLOW THE SET UP FOR MORE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE SRN
PORTION OF THE AREA. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS SRN VA AND
NE NC FOR THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AGAIN BASIN
AVERAGES IN THE 0.25 TO 0.50 RANGE ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH POSSIBLE. FOR TEMPERATURES...FURTHER
TO THE NORTH AND WEST NEAR THE FRONT READINGS SHOULD BE HELD DOWN
BY CLOUDS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...BUT FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS ARE HAVING SOME INCONSISTENCIES WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THE UPPER LOW FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE NAM HAS BEEN FURTHER
WEST WITH THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW. THIS SEEMS TO BE THE
OUTLIER SO HAVE GONE MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVING THE
UPPER LOW DEVELOP OVER ERN KY AND LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE MORE CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

ON SAT NIGHT THE FRONT SHOULD STALL NR THE VA/NC BORDER AND COULD
STILL PRODUCES SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. NORTH OF THE
FRONT ENOUGH DRY AIR SLIDES IN AND WITH LITTLE FORCING SHOULD SEE
DRY WX. AS A RESULT FOR TEMPS OVERNIGHT WENT A LITTLE COOLER TO
THE NORTH IN THE MID 60S WHILE TO THE SOUTH KEPT READINGS IN THE
U60S TO L70S.

ON SUNDAY WITH THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY AND AGAIN BEGINNING TO
LIFT NORTHWARD AS THE UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER ERN KY...HAVE
INCREASED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND THEN BACK INTO
THE PIEDMONT WITH THE DEVELOPING SERLY FLOW. ONLY THE LOWER MD ERN
SHORE AREA HAS THE CHANCE FOR A DRY DAY. TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S.

THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BEGINS TO DIMINISH SOME SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE FORCING IS WEAK AND WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY
EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO WANE A BIT SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT AS THE UPPER
LOW BEGINS TO EJECT NEWD AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING
TROUGH/FRONT...SHOULD SEE MORE SHOWERS DEVELOP AS THE LOW EXITS.
FOR TEMPS...LEANED WARM SUN NIGHT WITH CLOUDS AROUND...KEEPING THE
U60S TO L70 VALUES WITH HIGHS ON MON IN THE MID 80S...ASSUMING
MORE CLOUDS AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY CONTINUED LOW AMPLITUDE
UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH GRADUAL RE-REEMERGENCE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT THAT WITH OCCASIONAL UPPER
DISTURBANCES/PERTURBATIONS PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC,
AS WEAK SFC TROUGH PERSISTS IN PLACE OVERHEAD, MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHC
RANGE BY DAY (NEAR CLIMO NORMS), W/ SLIGHT CHC OR LESS OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST PW VALUES WILL ALSO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD...LINGERING AROUND +2 S.D. ABOVE NORMAL. ACCORDINGLY, WE`LL
NEED TO BE ON GUARD FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, WITH THIS INCREASED HUMIDITY/DEWPOINTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD, CONTINUED TO RIDE ON THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE WITH
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...GENERALLY FAVORING A TYPICAL
MID-JULY WARM/MODERATELY HUMID SET UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 INLAND,
WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS 65 TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARM FRNTL BNDRY WILL LIFT JUST N OF THE REGION THIS MORNG...AS
LO PRES MOVES NNE FM SE VA TO JUST OFF THE DE/MD CST. THAT LO WILL
THEN TRACK NE OUT TO SEA THIS AFTN INTO SUN MORNG...PULLING THAT
BNDRY BACK S INTO NRN NC AS A COLD FRONT. SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO SUN MORNG...WITH THE BEST
CHCS SHIFTING FM THE ENTIRE REGION THIS MORNG...SWRD INTO SRN VA
AND NRN/NE NC THIS EVENG INTO SUN MORNG. EXPECT MAINLY VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS ACRS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE TIME...WITH IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT ANY TAF SITE THRU SUN MORNG...ESPLY DURING
THE MORNG HRS.

&&

.MARINE...
UNSETTLED WX CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS OVER THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LATEST OBS REFLECT E-SE FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY LYING JUST TO OUR SOUTH THIS
AFTN. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING
(BRIEF HVY RAIN POSSIBLE IN ANY TSTORMS THIS EVENING). RESULTANT
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN WINDS INCREASING AND VEERING
AROUND TO THE S-SE TONIGHT, WITH A SMALL 3-6 HOUR WINDOW OF MARGINAL
SCA CONDS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER BAY TOWARDS THE MOUTH OF CHES BAY.
HAVE HOSTED SCA IN THE CHES BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT FOR WINDS
TO LOW END SCA FOR A BRIEF PERIOD TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.
THE MEANDERING FRONT WILL DROP BACK SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING
W/SFC LOW EXITING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST SOUTH OF CAPE COD. WAVES
AVG 1-2 FT...SEAS 2-4FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS
NEAR TERM...ESS/JDM
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MAM/TMG



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 040614
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
214 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WITH THE CHANCES FOR RAIN EACH DAY. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH
OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD
MOVE INTO THE THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 10 PM EDT...A BATCH OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN HAS
DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN VA THIS EVENING...EXTENDING
SOUTH INTO COASTAL NE NC. SOME IMPRESSIVE RAIN AMOUNTS OCCURRED
EARLIER THIS EVENING WITH LOCATIONS SUCH AS EDENTON AND ELIZABETH
CITY IN NE NC PICKING UP BETWEEN 1.00-2.25" OF RAIN IN AN HOUR OR
SO. LUCKILY...COUNTY OFFICIALS DID NOT REPORT ANY FLOODING ISSUES.
ELSEWHERE...RAIN AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.50-1.00" WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS HAVE FALLEN ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN VA SO FAR. THIS BATCH OF RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NORTH OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY
OVER NE NC LIFTS NORTH...AND A SFC LOW OVER THE OH VALLEY HEADS
FOR NOVA. HAVE LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA
OVERNIGHT...EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONING TO JUST THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE FA TOWARD DAYBREAK. QPF AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT WILL MAINLY BE ON
THE ORDER OF 0.25-1.00" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS (THESE TOTALS
DO NOT INCLUDE WHAT ALREADY FELL BEFORE 10 PM). LOWS OVERNIGHT IN
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

SATURDAY...THE SFC LOW WILL BE EXITING OFF THE COAST AND WILL
PUSH OFF THE COAST AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH PULLS OFF THE COAST.
THIS WILL PULL THE FRONT BACK TOWARD THE SOUTH...BUT WITHOUT A
STRONG NW PUSH...THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE AND THIS WILL
ALLOW THE SET UP FOR MORE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE SRN
PORTION OF THE AREA. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS SRN VA AND
NE NC FOR THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AGAIN BASIN
AVERAGES IN THE 0.25 TO 0.50 RANGE ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH POSSIBLE. FOR TEMPERATURES...FURTHER
TO THE NORTH AND WEST NEAR THE FRONT READINGS SHOULD BE HELD DOWN
BY CLOUDS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...BUT FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS ARE HAVING SOME INCONSISTENCIES WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THE UPPER LOW FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE NAM HAS BEEN FURTHER
WEST WITH THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW. THIS SEEMS TO BE THE
OUTLIER SO HAVE GONE MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVING THE
UPPER LOW DEVELOP OVER ERN KY AND LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE MORE CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

ON SAT NIGHT THE FRONT SHOULD STALL NR THE VA/NC BORDER AND COULD
STILL PRODUCES SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. NORTH OF THE
FRONT ENOUGH DRY AIR SLIDES IN AND WITH LITTLE FORCING SHOULD SEE
DRY WX. AS A RESULT FOR TEMPS OVERNIGHT WENT A LITTLE COOLER TO
THE NORTH IN THE MID 60S WHILE TO THE SOUTH KEPT READINGS IN THE
U60S TO L70S.

ON SUNDAY WITH THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY AND AGAIN BEGINNING TO
LIFT NORTHWARD AS THE UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER ERN KY...HAVE
INCREASED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND THEN BACK INTO
THE PIEDMONT WITH THE DEVELOPING SERLY FLOW. ONLY THE LOWER MD ERN
SHORE AREA HAS THE CHANCE FOR A DRY DAY. TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S.

THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BEGINS TO DIMINISH SOME SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE FORCING IS WEAK AND WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY
EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO WANE A BIT SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT AS THE UPPER
LOW BEGINS TO EJECT NEWD AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING
TROUGH/FRONT...SHOULD SEE MORE SHOWERS DEVELOP AS THE LOW EXITS.
FOR TEMPS...LEANED WARM SUN NIGHT WITH CLOUDS AROUND...KEEPING THE
U60S TO L70 VALUES WITH HIGHS ON MON IN THE MID 80S...ASSUMING
MORE CLOUDS AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY CONTINUED LOW AMPLITUDE
UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH GRADUAL RE-REEMERGENCE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT THAT WITH OCCASIONAL UPPER
DISTURBANCES/PERTURBATIONS PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC,
AS WEAK SFC TROUGH PERSISTS IN PLACE OVERHEAD, MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHC
RANGE BY DAY (NEAR CLIMO NORMS), W/ SLIGHT CHC OR LESS OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST PW VALUES WILL ALSO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD...LINGERING AROUND +2 S.D. ABOVE NORMAL. ACCORDINGLY, WE`LL
NEED TO BE ON GUARD FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, WITH THIS INCREASED HUMIDITY/DEWPOINTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD, CONTINUED TO RIDE ON THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE WITH
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...GENERALLY FAVORING A TYPICAL
MID-JULY WARM/MODERATELY HUMID SET UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 INLAND,
WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS 65 TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARM FRNTL BNDRY WILL LIFT JUST N OF THE REGION THIS MORNG...AS
LO PRES MOVES NNE FM SE VA TO JUST OFF THE DE/MD CST. THAT LO WILL
THEN TRACK NE OUT TO SEA THIS AFTN INTO SUN MORNG...PULLING THAT
BNDRY BACK S INTO NRN NC AS A COLD FRONT. SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO SUN MORNG...WITH THE BEST
CHCS SHIFTING FM THE ENTIRE REGION THIS MORNG...SWRD INTO SRN VA
AND NRN/NE NC THIS EVENG INTO SUN MORNG. EXPECT MAINLY VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS ACRS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE TIME...WITH IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT ANY TAF SITE THRU SUN MORNG...ESPLY DURING
THE MORNG HRS.

&&

.MARINE...
UNSETTLED WX CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS OVER THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LATEST OBS REFLECT E-SE FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY LYING JUST TO OUR SOUTH THIS
AFTN. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING
(BRIEF HVY RAIN POSSIBLE IN ANY TSTORMS THIS EVENING). RESULTANT
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN WINDS INCREASING AND VEERING
AROUND TO THE S-SE TONIGHT, WITH A SMALL 3-6 HOUR WINDOW OF MARGINAL
SCA CONDS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER BAY TOWARDS THE MOUTH OF CHES BAY.
HAVE HOSTED SCA IN THE CHES BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT FOR WINDS
TO LOW END SCA FOR A BRIEF PERIOD TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.
THE MEANDERING FRONT WILL DROP BACK SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING
W/SFC LOW EXITING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST SOUTH OF CAPE COD. WAVES
AVG 1-2 FT...SEAS 2-4FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS
NEAR TERM...ESS/JDM
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MAM/TMG



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 040614
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
214 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WITH THE CHANCES FOR RAIN EACH DAY. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH
OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD
MOVE INTO THE THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 10 PM EDT...A BATCH OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN HAS
DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN VA THIS EVENING...EXTENDING
SOUTH INTO COASTAL NE NC. SOME IMPRESSIVE RAIN AMOUNTS OCCURRED
EARLIER THIS EVENING WITH LOCATIONS SUCH AS EDENTON AND ELIZABETH
CITY IN NE NC PICKING UP BETWEEN 1.00-2.25" OF RAIN IN AN HOUR OR
SO. LUCKILY...COUNTY OFFICIALS DID NOT REPORT ANY FLOODING ISSUES.
ELSEWHERE...RAIN AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.50-1.00" WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS HAVE FALLEN ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN VA SO FAR. THIS BATCH OF RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NORTH OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY
OVER NE NC LIFTS NORTH...AND A SFC LOW OVER THE OH VALLEY HEADS
FOR NOVA. HAVE LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA
OVERNIGHT...EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONING TO JUST THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE FA TOWARD DAYBREAK. QPF AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT WILL MAINLY BE ON
THE ORDER OF 0.25-1.00" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS (THESE TOTALS
DO NOT INCLUDE WHAT ALREADY FELL BEFORE 10 PM). LOWS OVERNIGHT IN
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

SATURDAY...THE SFC LOW WILL BE EXITING OFF THE COAST AND WILL
PUSH OFF THE COAST AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH PULLS OFF THE COAST.
THIS WILL PULL THE FRONT BACK TOWARD THE SOUTH...BUT WITHOUT A
STRONG NW PUSH...THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE AND THIS WILL
ALLOW THE SET UP FOR MORE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE SRN
PORTION OF THE AREA. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS SRN VA AND
NE NC FOR THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AGAIN BASIN
AVERAGES IN THE 0.25 TO 0.50 RANGE ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH POSSIBLE. FOR TEMPERATURES...FURTHER
TO THE NORTH AND WEST NEAR THE FRONT READINGS SHOULD BE HELD DOWN
BY CLOUDS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...BUT FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS ARE HAVING SOME INCONSISTENCIES WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THE UPPER LOW FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE NAM HAS BEEN FURTHER
WEST WITH THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW. THIS SEEMS TO BE THE
OUTLIER SO HAVE GONE MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVING THE
UPPER LOW DEVELOP OVER ERN KY AND LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE MORE CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

ON SAT NIGHT THE FRONT SHOULD STALL NR THE VA/NC BORDER AND COULD
STILL PRODUCES SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. NORTH OF THE
FRONT ENOUGH DRY AIR SLIDES IN AND WITH LITTLE FORCING SHOULD SEE
DRY WX. AS A RESULT FOR TEMPS OVERNIGHT WENT A LITTLE COOLER TO
THE NORTH IN THE MID 60S WHILE TO THE SOUTH KEPT READINGS IN THE
U60S TO L70S.

ON SUNDAY WITH THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY AND AGAIN BEGINNING TO
LIFT NORTHWARD AS THE UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER ERN KY...HAVE
INCREASED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND THEN BACK INTO
THE PIEDMONT WITH THE DEVELOPING SERLY FLOW. ONLY THE LOWER MD ERN
SHORE AREA HAS THE CHANCE FOR A DRY DAY. TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S.

THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BEGINS TO DIMINISH SOME SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE FORCING IS WEAK AND WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY
EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO WANE A BIT SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT AS THE UPPER
LOW BEGINS TO EJECT NEWD AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING
TROUGH/FRONT...SHOULD SEE MORE SHOWERS DEVELOP AS THE LOW EXITS.
FOR TEMPS...LEANED WARM SUN NIGHT WITH CLOUDS AROUND...KEEPING THE
U60S TO L70 VALUES WITH HIGHS ON MON IN THE MID 80S...ASSUMING
MORE CLOUDS AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY CONTINUED LOW AMPLITUDE
UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH GRADUAL RE-REEMERGENCE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT THAT WITH OCCASIONAL UPPER
DISTURBANCES/PERTURBATIONS PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC,
AS WEAK SFC TROUGH PERSISTS IN PLACE OVERHEAD, MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHC
RANGE BY DAY (NEAR CLIMO NORMS), W/ SLIGHT CHC OR LESS OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST PW VALUES WILL ALSO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD...LINGERING AROUND +2 S.D. ABOVE NORMAL. ACCORDINGLY, WE`LL
NEED TO BE ON GUARD FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, WITH THIS INCREASED HUMIDITY/DEWPOINTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD, CONTINUED TO RIDE ON THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE WITH
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...GENERALLY FAVORING A TYPICAL
MID-JULY WARM/MODERATELY HUMID SET UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 INLAND,
WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS 65 TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARM FRNTL BNDRY WILL LIFT JUST N OF THE REGION THIS MORNG...AS
LO PRES MOVES NNE FM SE VA TO JUST OFF THE DE/MD CST. THAT LO WILL
THEN TRACK NE OUT TO SEA THIS AFTN INTO SUN MORNG...PULLING THAT
BNDRY BACK S INTO NRN NC AS A COLD FRONT. SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO SUN MORNG...WITH THE BEST
CHCS SHIFTING FM THE ENTIRE REGION THIS MORNG...SWRD INTO SRN VA
AND NRN/NE NC THIS EVENG INTO SUN MORNG. EXPECT MAINLY VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS ACRS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE TIME...WITH IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT ANY TAF SITE THRU SUN MORNG...ESPLY DURING
THE MORNG HRS.

&&

.MARINE...
UNSETTLED WX CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS OVER THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LATEST OBS REFLECT E-SE FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY LYING JUST TO OUR SOUTH THIS
AFTN. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING
(BRIEF HVY RAIN POSSIBLE IN ANY TSTORMS THIS EVENING). RESULTANT
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN WINDS INCREASING AND VEERING
AROUND TO THE S-SE TONIGHT, WITH A SMALL 3-6 HOUR WINDOW OF MARGINAL
SCA CONDS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER BAY TOWARDS THE MOUTH OF CHES BAY.
HAVE HOSTED SCA IN THE CHES BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT FOR WINDS
TO LOW END SCA FOR A BRIEF PERIOD TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.
THE MEANDERING FRONT WILL DROP BACK SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING
W/SFC LOW EXITING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST SOUTH OF CAPE COD. WAVES
AVG 1-2 FT...SEAS 2-4FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS
NEAR TERM...ESS/JDM
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MAM/TMG



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 040614
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
214 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WITH THE CHANCES FOR RAIN EACH DAY. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH
OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD
MOVE INTO THE THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 10 PM EDT...A BATCH OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN HAS
DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN VA THIS EVENING...EXTENDING
SOUTH INTO COASTAL NE NC. SOME IMPRESSIVE RAIN AMOUNTS OCCURRED
EARLIER THIS EVENING WITH LOCATIONS SUCH AS EDENTON AND ELIZABETH
CITY IN NE NC PICKING UP BETWEEN 1.00-2.25" OF RAIN IN AN HOUR OR
SO. LUCKILY...COUNTY OFFICIALS DID NOT REPORT ANY FLOODING ISSUES.
ELSEWHERE...RAIN AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.50-1.00" WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS HAVE FALLEN ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN VA SO FAR. THIS BATCH OF RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NORTH OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY
OVER NE NC LIFTS NORTH...AND A SFC LOW OVER THE OH VALLEY HEADS
FOR NOVA. HAVE LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA
OVERNIGHT...EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONING TO JUST THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE FA TOWARD DAYBREAK. QPF AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT WILL MAINLY BE ON
THE ORDER OF 0.25-1.00" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS (THESE TOTALS
DO NOT INCLUDE WHAT ALREADY FELL BEFORE 10 PM). LOWS OVERNIGHT IN
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

SATURDAY...THE SFC LOW WILL BE EXITING OFF THE COAST AND WILL
PUSH OFF THE COAST AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH PULLS OFF THE COAST.
THIS WILL PULL THE FRONT BACK TOWARD THE SOUTH...BUT WITHOUT A
STRONG NW PUSH...THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE AND THIS WILL
ALLOW THE SET UP FOR MORE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE SRN
PORTION OF THE AREA. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS SRN VA AND
NE NC FOR THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AGAIN BASIN
AVERAGES IN THE 0.25 TO 0.50 RANGE ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH POSSIBLE. FOR TEMPERATURES...FURTHER
TO THE NORTH AND WEST NEAR THE FRONT READINGS SHOULD BE HELD DOWN
BY CLOUDS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...BUT FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS ARE HAVING SOME INCONSISTENCIES WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THE UPPER LOW FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE NAM HAS BEEN FURTHER
WEST WITH THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW. THIS SEEMS TO BE THE
OUTLIER SO HAVE GONE MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVING THE
UPPER LOW DEVELOP OVER ERN KY AND LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE MORE CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

ON SAT NIGHT THE FRONT SHOULD STALL NR THE VA/NC BORDER AND COULD
STILL PRODUCES SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. NORTH OF THE
FRONT ENOUGH DRY AIR SLIDES IN AND WITH LITTLE FORCING SHOULD SEE
DRY WX. AS A RESULT FOR TEMPS OVERNIGHT WENT A LITTLE COOLER TO
THE NORTH IN THE MID 60S WHILE TO THE SOUTH KEPT READINGS IN THE
U60S TO L70S.

ON SUNDAY WITH THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY AND AGAIN BEGINNING TO
LIFT NORTHWARD AS THE UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER ERN KY...HAVE
INCREASED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND THEN BACK INTO
THE PIEDMONT WITH THE DEVELOPING SERLY FLOW. ONLY THE LOWER MD ERN
SHORE AREA HAS THE CHANCE FOR A DRY DAY. TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S.

THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BEGINS TO DIMINISH SOME SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE FORCING IS WEAK AND WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY
EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO WANE A BIT SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT AS THE UPPER
LOW BEGINS TO EJECT NEWD AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING
TROUGH/FRONT...SHOULD SEE MORE SHOWERS DEVELOP AS THE LOW EXITS.
FOR TEMPS...LEANED WARM SUN NIGHT WITH CLOUDS AROUND...KEEPING THE
U60S TO L70 VALUES WITH HIGHS ON MON IN THE MID 80S...ASSUMING
MORE CLOUDS AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY CONTINUED LOW AMPLITUDE
UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH GRADUAL RE-REEMERGENCE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT THAT WITH OCCASIONAL UPPER
DISTURBANCES/PERTURBATIONS PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC,
AS WEAK SFC TROUGH PERSISTS IN PLACE OVERHEAD, MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHC
RANGE BY DAY (NEAR CLIMO NORMS), W/ SLIGHT CHC OR LESS OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST PW VALUES WILL ALSO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD...LINGERING AROUND +2 S.D. ABOVE NORMAL. ACCORDINGLY, WE`LL
NEED TO BE ON GUARD FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, WITH THIS INCREASED HUMIDITY/DEWPOINTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD, CONTINUED TO RIDE ON THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE WITH
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...GENERALLY FAVORING A TYPICAL
MID-JULY WARM/MODERATELY HUMID SET UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 INLAND,
WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS 65 TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARM FRNTL BNDRY WILL LIFT JUST N OF THE REGION THIS MORNG...AS
LO PRES MOVES NNE FM SE VA TO JUST OFF THE DE/MD CST. THAT LO WILL
THEN TRACK NE OUT TO SEA THIS AFTN INTO SUN MORNG...PULLING THAT
BNDRY BACK S INTO NRN NC AS A COLD FRONT. SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO SUN MORNG...WITH THE BEST
CHCS SHIFTING FM THE ENTIRE REGION THIS MORNG...SWRD INTO SRN VA
AND NRN/NE NC THIS EVENG INTO SUN MORNG. EXPECT MAINLY VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS ACRS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE TIME...WITH IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT ANY TAF SITE THRU SUN MORNG...ESPLY DURING
THE MORNG HRS.

&&

.MARINE...
UNSETTLED WX CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS OVER THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LATEST OBS REFLECT E-SE FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY LYING JUST TO OUR SOUTH THIS
AFTN. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING
(BRIEF HVY RAIN POSSIBLE IN ANY TSTORMS THIS EVENING). RESULTANT
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN WINDS INCREASING AND VEERING
AROUND TO THE S-SE TONIGHT, WITH A SMALL 3-6 HOUR WINDOW OF MARGINAL
SCA CONDS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER BAY TOWARDS THE MOUTH OF CHES BAY.
HAVE HOSTED SCA IN THE CHES BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT FOR WINDS
TO LOW END SCA FOR A BRIEF PERIOD TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.
THE MEANDERING FRONT WILL DROP BACK SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING
W/SFC LOW EXITING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST SOUTH OF CAPE COD. WAVES
AVG 1-2 FT...SEAS 2-4FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS
NEAR TERM...ESS/JDM
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MAM/TMG



000
FXUS61 KRNK 040602
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
202 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WORK SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT
WILL HANG UP JUST SOUTH OF US SATURDAY NIGH INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP OUR AREA IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT FRIDAY...

RADAR SHOWED ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS
MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. HAVE
ADJUSTED PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR
TRENDS.

WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR BLUEFIELD TO NEAR DANVILLE. NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY WINDS WERE STILL OUT OF THE EAST TO NORTHEAST WITH
LOW CLOUDS AND DEW POINT DEPRESSION NEAR ZERO. LITTLE DROP IN
TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG IN THE
FORECAST TONIGHT FOR A LARGE PART OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. AS
THE FRONT DRIFTS NORTH CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIFT...BUT IT MAY BE
MID MORNING BEFORE THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS AND AREAS NORTH OF
ROUTE-460 GET OUT OF THE STRATUS AND FOG.

AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THE MODELS SEEM TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE PATTERN TAKING
WAVY FRONT NORTH OF US SATURDAY MORNING. UNTIL THEN EXPECT SHOWERS
AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...WITH ONE
UPPER WAVE PASSING BY. A WINDOW OF SOMEWHAT DRY WX OCCURS
OVERNIGHT BEFORE THE ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NC MTNS
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SECOND WAVE ONCE IT MOVES
EAST OF US MIDDAY SATURDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A "COLD" FRONT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS. GIVEN THE FLOW
TURNS MORE SW THEN WEST THE POPS WERE FOR MORE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
COVERAGE AND NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN SATURDAY BUT HALF TO 3/4 OF
YOU WILL AT LEAST FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING.

WITH CLOUDS AROUND TONIGHT...AND HIGH MOIST SFC CONDITIONS KEPT LOWS
AS WE HAVE HAD THEM THE PAST FEW NIGHTS LOWER TO MID 60S WEST TO
UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 EAST.

MAY SEE SOME SUNSHINE SATURDAY SO HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN TODAY RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S WEST TO LOWER OR MID
80S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH
AS LOW CENTER MOVES AWAY FROM OUR AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
TO NEAR 70 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.

THE FRONT GET HUNG UP ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH AS CUTOFF LOW TAKES
SHAPE OVER NORTH CAROLINA. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY...BUT THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL HINDER INSTABILITY.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN...BUT GIVEN THAT
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...THIS FURTHER REDUCES CONCERNS OF FLOODING. WITH CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN...LEANED HIGHS TOWARDS THE COOLER MOS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS FROM AROUND
70 DEGREES IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT.

THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE EAST. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL LINGER SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM AROUND 60 DEGREES TO THE UPPER 60S.

THE CLOUDY WET WEATHER CONTINUES MONDAY AS THE REMNANT UPPER LOW
DRIFTS INTO NORTHERN VA. THE BEST COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS...BUT DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION COMPARED TO SUNDAY. WILL HOLD ON TO HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS FOR MONDAY. INSTABILITY APPEARS MARGINAL AND THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL REMAIN THAT OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH TEMPERATURES
MONDAY WILL VARY FROM THE MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 80S IN
THE PIEDMONT.

TAPER OF POPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AS SHOWN ON GFS
AND ECMWF. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER
50S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

ON TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE ACROSS NORTHERN VIRGINIA WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S IN THE
MOUNTAINS T0 THE UPPER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT. COLD FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...WHILE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH
EAST TO THE ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S.

THE FRONT DRIFTS SOUTH WEDNESDAY AND STALLS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL AVERAGE FROM THE MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
THE UPPER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT.  THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR
REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY GOES IS DIFFERENT DEPENDING ON MODEL
CHOICE. THE ECMWF PUSHING THE COLD FRONT FARTHER SOUTH WITH SOME
SUPPORTIVE UPPER TROUGHINESS COMPARED TO GFS.

ONCE AGAIN WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AND RIDE ALONG
THE FRONT KEEPING A GOOD CHANCES OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WILL MODERATE TO AROUND 80 DEGREES IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM
MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT SATURDAY...

EXPECT VARIABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST...AND CIGS/VSBYS ARE BOUNCING
AROUND A GOOD BIT. ANTICIPATING THE CIGS TO SETTLE DOWN INTO IFR
WITH VSBYS MVFR/IFR AND THIS IS INDICATED IN THE EARLY PORTION OF
THE TAFS. WILL NOT BE TOO QUICK TO AMEND UP IF VARIABLE CONDITIONS
PERSIST LONGER THAN EXPECTED.

ALL OF THIS WEATHER IS COURTESY OF THE PERSISTENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT HAS BEEN WAVERING ABOUT THE AREA FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
THE LATEST ITERATION OF THIS SCENARIO HAS LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND PUSHING THIS BOUNDARY BACK SOUTH AS A
COLD FRONT TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS AND WINDS COME AROUND TO THE
W/NW...CIGS/VSBYS WILL IMPROVE AND EXPECT VFR AT TAF SITES BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. MESO MODELS WANT TO REDEVELOP SHOWERS
WITH THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE OF THE
SCATTERED VARIETY. WILL GO WITH VCSH AND ALLOW LATER PACKAGES TO
FINE TUNE TIMING/LOCATIONS OF ANY PRECIPITATION. INSTABILITY
CONTINUES TO BE LACKING SO EXPECT ONLY AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR TS.
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE REDEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT BUT ANY
ADVERSE CONDITIONS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE SETTING IN AFTER THIS
VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDOWS
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR VFR CONDITIONS INCREASE INTO MON/TUE. UPPER
LOW/TROUGH WILL LINGER WEST OF THE VA/NC COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN BEGIN TO DRIFT INTO
NORTHERN VA BY MON. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE OH VALLEY BY WED. THIS LEAVES A VERY UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH
IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR-
VFR OUTSIDE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOONS. AT THIS
POINT...TUESDAY APPEARS TO OFFER THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS/WP
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...MBS/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 040602
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
202 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WORK SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT
WILL HANG UP JUST SOUTH OF US SATURDAY NIGH INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP OUR AREA IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT FRIDAY...

RADAR SHOWED ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS
MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. HAVE
ADJUSTED PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR
TRENDS.

WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR BLUEFIELD TO NEAR DANVILLE. NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY WINDS WERE STILL OUT OF THE EAST TO NORTHEAST WITH
LOW CLOUDS AND DEW POINT DEPRESSION NEAR ZERO. LITTLE DROP IN
TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG IN THE
FORECAST TONIGHT FOR A LARGE PART OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. AS
THE FRONT DRIFTS NORTH CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIFT...BUT IT MAY BE
MID MORNING BEFORE THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS AND AREAS NORTH OF
ROUTE-460 GET OUT OF THE STRATUS AND FOG.

AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THE MODELS SEEM TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE PATTERN TAKING
WAVY FRONT NORTH OF US SATURDAY MORNING. UNTIL THEN EXPECT SHOWERS
AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...WITH ONE
UPPER WAVE PASSING BY. A WINDOW OF SOMEWHAT DRY WX OCCURS
OVERNIGHT BEFORE THE ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NC MTNS
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SECOND WAVE ONCE IT MOVES
EAST OF US MIDDAY SATURDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A "COLD" FRONT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS. GIVEN THE FLOW
TURNS MORE SW THEN WEST THE POPS WERE FOR MORE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
COVERAGE AND NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN SATURDAY BUT HALF TO 3/4 OF
YOU WILL AT LEAST FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING.

WITH CLOUDS AROUND TONIGHT...AND HIGH MOIST SFC CONDITIONS KEPT LOWS
AS WE HAVE HAD THEM THE PAST FEW NIGHTS LOWER TO MID 60S WEST TO
UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 EAST.

MAY SEE SOME SUNSHINE SATURDAY SO HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN TODAY RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S WEST TO LOWER OR MID
80S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH
AS LOW CENTER MOVES AWAY FROM OUR AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
TO NEAR 70 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.

THE FRONT GET HUNG UP ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH AS CUTOFF LOW TAKES
SHAPE OVER NORTH CAROLINA. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY...BUT THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL HINDER INSTABILITY.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN...BUT GIVEN THAT
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...THIS FURTHER REDUCES CONCERNS OF FLOODING. WITH CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN...LEANED HIGHS TOWARDS THE COOLER MOS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS FROM AROUND
70 DEGREES IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT.

THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE EAST. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL LINGER SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM AROUND 60 DEGREES TO THE UPPER 60S.

THE CLOUDY WET WEATHER CONTINUES MONDAY AS THE REMNANT UPPER LOW
DRIFTS INTO NORTHERN VA. THE BEST COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS...BUT DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION COMPARED TO SUNDAY. WILL HOLD ON TO HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS FOR MONDAY. INSTABILITY APPEARS MARGINAL AND THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL REMAIN THAT OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH TEMPERATURES
MONDAY WILL VARY FROM THE MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 80S IN
THE PIEDMONT.

TAPER OF POPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AS SHOWN ON GFS
AND ECMWF. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER
50S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

ON TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE ACROSS NORTHERN VIRGINIA WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S IN THE
MOUNTAINS T0 THE UPPER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT. COLD FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...WHILE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH
EAST TO THE ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S.

THE FRONT DRIFTS SOUTH WEDNESDAY AND STALLS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL AVERAGE FROM THE MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
THE UPPER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT.  THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR
REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY GOES IS DIFFERENT DEPENDING ON MODEL
CHOICE. THE ECMWF PUSHING THE COLD FRONT FARTHER SOUTH WITH SOME
SUPPORTIVE UPPER TROUGHINESS COMPARED TO GFS.

ONCE AGAIN WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AND RIDE ALONG
THE FRONT KEEPING A GOOD CHANCES OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WILL MODERATE TO AROUND 80 DEGREES IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM
MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT SATURDAY...

EXPECT VARIABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST...AND CIGS/VSBYS ARE BOUNCING
AROUND A GOOD BIT. ANTICIPATING THE CIGS TO SETTLE DOWN INTO IFR
WITH VSBYS MVFR/IFR AND THIS IS INDICATED IN THE EARLY PORTION OF
THE TAFS. WILL NOT BE TOO QUICK TO AMEND UP IF VARIABLE CONDITIONS
PERSIST LONGER THAN EXPECTED.

ALL OF THIS WEATHER IS COURTESY OF THE PERSISTENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT HAS BEEN WAVERING ABOUT THE AREA FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
THE LATEST ITERATION OF THIS SCENARIO HAS LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND PUSHING THIS BOUNDARY BACK SOUTH AS A
COLD FRONT TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS AND WINDS COME AROUND TO THE
W/NW...CIGS/VSBYS WILL IMPROVE AND EXPECT VFR AT TAF SITES BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. MESO MODELS WANT TO REDEVELOP SHOWERS
WITH THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE OF THE
SCATTERED VARIETY. WILL GO WITH VCSH AND ALLOW LATER PACKAGES TO
FINE TUNE TIMING/LOCATIONS OF ANY PRECIPITATION. INSTABILITY
CONTINUES TO BE LACKING SO EXPECT ONLY AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR TS.
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE REDEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT BUT ANY
ADVERSE CONDITIONS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE SETTING IN AFTER THIS
VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDOWS
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR VFR CONDITIONS INCREASE INTO MON/TUE. UPPER
LOW/TROUGH WILL LINGER WEST OF THE VA/NC COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN BEGIN TO DRIFT INTO
NORTHERN VA BY MON. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE OH VALLEY BY WED. THIS LEAVES A VERY UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH
IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR-
VFR OUTSIDE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOONS. AT THIS
POINT...TUESDAY APPEARS TO OFFER THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS/WP
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...MBS/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 040602
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
202 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WORK SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT
WILL HANG UP JUST SOUTH OF US SATURDAY NIGH INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP OUR AREA IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT FRIDAY...

RADAR SHOWED ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS
MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. HAVE
ADJUSTED PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR
TRENDS.

WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR BLUEFIELD TO NEAR DANVILLE. NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY WINDS WERE STILL OUT OF THE EAST TO NORTHEAST WITH
LOW CLOUDS AND DEW POINT DEPRESSION NEAR ZERO. LITTLE DROP IN
TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG IN THE
FORECAST TONIGHT FOR A LARGE PART OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. AS
THE FRONT DRIFTS NORTH CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIFT...BUT IT MAY BE
MID MORNING BEFORE THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS AND AREAS NORTH OF
ROUTE-460 GET OUT OF THE STRATUS AND FOG.

AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THE MODELS SEEM TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE PATTERN TAKING
WAVY FRONT NORTH OF US SATURDAY MORNING. UNTIL THEN EXPECT SHOWERS
AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...WITH ONE
UPPER WAVE PASSING BY. A WINDOW OF SOMEWHAT DRY WX OCCURS
OVERNIGHT BEFORE THE ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NC MTNS
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SECOND WAVE ONCE IT MOVES
EAST OF US MIDDAY SATURDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A "COLD" FRONT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS. GIVEN THE FLOW
TURNS MORE SW THEN WEST THE POPS WERE FOR MORE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
COVERAGE AND NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN SATURDAY BUT HALF TO 3/4 OF
YOU WILL AT LEAST FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING.

WITH CLOUDS AROUND TONIGHT...AND HIGH MOIST SFC CONDITIONS KEPT LOWS
AS WE HAVE HAD THEM THE PAST FEW NIGHTS LOWER TO MID 60S WEST TO
UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 EAST.

MAY SEE SOME SUNSHINE SATURDAY SO HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN TODAY RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S WEST TO LOWER OR MID
80S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH
AS LOW CENTER MOVES AWAY FROM OUR AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
TO NEAR 70 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.

THE FRONT GET HUNG UP ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH AS CUTOFF LOW TAKES
SHAPE OVER NORTH CAROLINA. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY...BUT THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL HINDER INSTABILITY.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN...BUT GIVEN THAT
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...THIS FURTHER REDUCES CONCERNS OF FLOODING. WITH CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN...LEANED HIGHS TOWARDS THE COOLER MOS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS FROM AROUND
70 DEGREES IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT.

THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE EAST. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL LINGER SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM AROUND 60 DEGREES TO THE UPPER 60S.

THE CLOUDY WET WEATHER CONTINUES MONDAY AS THE REMNANT UPPER LOW
DRIFTS INTO NORTHERN VA. THE BEST COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS...BUT DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION COMPARED TO SUNDAY. WILL HOLD ON TO HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS FOR MONDAY. INSTABILITY APPEARS MARGINAL AND THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL REMAIN THAT OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH TEMPERATURES
MONDAY WILL VARY FROM THE MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 80S IN
THE PIEDMONT.

TAPER OF POPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AS SHOWN ON GFS
AND ECMWF. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER
50S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

ON TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE ACROSS NORTHERN VIRGINIA WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S IN THE
MOUNTAINS T0 THE UPPER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT. COLD FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...WHILE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH
EAST TO THE ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S.

THE FRONT DRIFTS SOUTH WEDNESDAY AND STALLS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL AVERAGE FROM THE MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
THE UPPER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT.  THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR
REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY GOES IS DIFFERENT DEPENDING ON MODEL
CHOICE. THE ECMWF PUSHING THE COLD FRONT FARTHER SOUTH WITH SOME
SUPPORTIVE UPPER TROUGHINESS COMPARED TO GFS.

ONCE AGAIN WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AND RIDE ALONG
THE FRONT KEEPING A GOOD CHANCES OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WILL MODERATE TO AROUND 80 DEGREES IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM
MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT SATURDAY...

EXPECT VARIABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST...AND CIGS/VSBYS ARE BOUNCING
AROUND A GOOD BIT. ANTICIPATING THE CIGS TO SETTLE DOWN INTO IFR
WITH VSBYS MVFR/IFR AND THIS IS INDICATED IN THE EARLY PORTION OF
THE TAFS. WILL NOT BE TOO QUICK TO AMEND UP IF VARIABLE CONDITIONS
PERSIST LONGER THAN EXPECTED.

ALL OF THIS WEATHER IS COURTESY OF THE PERSISTENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT HAS BEEN WAVERING ABOUT THE AREA FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
THE LATEST ITERATION OF THIS SCENARIO HAS LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND PUSHING THIS BOUNDARY BACK SOUTH AS A
COLD FRONT TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS AND WINDS COME AROUND TO THE
W/NW...CIGS/VSBYS WILL IMPROVE AND EXPECT VFR AT TAF SITES BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. MESO MODELS WANT TO REDEVELOP SHOWERS
WITH THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE OF THE
SCATTERED VARIETY. WILL GO WITH VCSH AND ALLOW LATER PACKAGES TO
FINE TUNE TIMING/LOCATIONS OF ANY PRECIPITATION. INSTABILITY
CONTINUES TO BE LACKING SO EXPECT ONLY AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR TS.
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE REDEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT BUT ANY
ADVERSE CONDITIONS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE SETTING IN AFTER THIS
VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDOWS
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR VFR CONDITIONS INCREASE INTO MON/TUE. UPPER
LOW/TROUGH WILL LINGER WEST OF THE VA/NC COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN BEGIN TO DRIFT INTO
NORTHERN VA BY MON. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE OH VALLEY BY WED. THIS LEAVES A VERY UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH
IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR-
VFR OUTSIDE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOONS. AT THIS
POINT...TUESDAY APPEARS TO OFFER THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS/WP
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...MBS/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 040602
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
202 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WORK SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT
WILL HANG UP JUST SOUTH OF US SATURDAY NIGH INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP OUR AREA IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT FRIDAY...

RADAR SHOWED ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS
MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. HAVE
ADJUSTED PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR
TRENDS.

WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR BLUEFIELD TO NEAR DANVILLE. NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY WINDS WERE STILL OUT OF THE EAST TO NORTHEAST WITH
LOW CLOUDS AND DEW POINT DEPRESSION NEAR ZERO. LITTLE DROP IN
TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG IN THE
FORECAST TONIGHT FOR A LARGE PART OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. AS
THE FRONT DRIFTS NORTH CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIFT...BUT IT MAY BE
MID MORNING BEFORE THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS AND AREAS NORTH OF
ROUTE-460 GET OUT OF THE STRATUS AND FOG.

AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THE MODELS SEEM TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE PATTERN TAKING
WAVY FRONT NORTH OF US SATURDAY MORNING. UNTIL THEN EXPECT SHOWERS
AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...WITH ONE
UPPER WAVE PASSING BY. A WINDOW OF SOMEWHAT DRY WX OCCURS
OVERNIGHT BEFORE THE ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NC MTNS
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SECOND WAVE ONCE IT MOVES
EAST OF US MIDDAY SATURDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A "COLD" FRONT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS. GIVEN THE FLOW
TURNS MORE SW THEN WEST THE POPS WERE FOR MORE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
COVERAGE AND NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN SATURDAY BUT HALF TO 3/4 OF
YOU WILL AT LEAST FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING.

WITH CLOUDS AROUND TONIGHT...AND HIGH MOIST SFC CONDITIONS KEPT LOWS
AS WE HAVE HAD THEM THE PAST FEW NIGHTS LOWER TO MID 60S WEST TO
UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 EAST.

MAY SEE SOME SUNSHINE SATURDAY SO HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN TODAY RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S WEST TO LOWER OR MID
80S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH
AS LOW CENTER MOVES AWAY FROM OUR AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
TO NEAR 70 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.

THE FRONT GET HUNG UP ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH AS CUTOFF LOW TAKES
SHAPE OVER NORTH CAROLINA. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY...BUT THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL HINDER INSTABILITY.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN...BUT GIVEN THAT
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...THIS FURTHER REDUCES CONCERNS OF FLOODING. WITH CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN...LEANED HIGHS TOWARDS THE COOLER MOS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS FROM AROUND
70 DEGREES IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT.

THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE EAST. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL LINGER SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM AROUND 60 DEGREES TO THE UPPER 60S.

THE CLOUDY WET WEATHER CONTINUES MONDAY AS THE REMNANT UPPER LOW
DRIFTS INTO NORTHERN VA. THE BEST COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS...BUT DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION COMPARED TO SUNDAY. WILL HOLD ON TO HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS FOR MONDAY. INSTABILITY APPEARS MARGINAL AND THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL REMAIN THAT OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH TEMPERATURES
MONDAY WILL VARY FROM THE MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 80S IN
THE PIEDMONT.

TAPER OF POPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AS SHOWN ON GFS
AND ECMWF. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER
50S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

ON TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE ACROSS NORTHERN VIRGINIA WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S IN THE
MOUNTAINS T0 THE UPPER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT. COLD FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...WHILE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH
EAST TO THE ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S.

THE FRONT DRIFTS SOUTH WEDNESDAY AND STALLS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL AVERAGE FROM THE MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
THE UPPER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT.  THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR
REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY GOES IS DIFFERENT DEPENDING ON MODEL
CHOICE. THE ECMWF PUSHING THE COLD FRONT FARTHER SOUTH WITH SOME
SUPPORTIVE UPPER TROUGHINESS COMPARED TO GFS.

ONCE AGAIN WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AND RIDE ALONG
THE FRONT KEEPING A GOOD CHANCES OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WILL MODERATE TO AROUND 80 DEGREES IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM
MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT SATURDAY...

EXPECT VARIABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST...AND CIGS/VSBYS ARE BOUNCING
AROUND A GOOD BIT. ANTICIPATING THE CIGS TO SETTLE DOWN INTO IFR
WITH VSBYS MVFR/IFR AND THIS IS INDICATED IN THE EARLY PORTION OF
THE TAFS. WILL NOT BE TOO QUICK TO AMEND UP IF VARIABLE CONDITIONS
PERSIST LONGER THAN EXPECTED.

ALL OF THIS WEATHER IS COURTESY OF THE PERSISTENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT HAS BEEN WAVERING ABOUT THE AREA FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
THE LATEST ITERATION OF THIS SCENARIO HAS LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND PUSHING THIS BOUNDARY BACK SOUTH AS A
COLD FRONT TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS AND WINDS COME AROUND TO THE
W/NW...CIGS/VSBYS WILL IMPROVE AND EXPECT VFR AT TAF SITES BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. MESO MODELS WANT TO REDEVELOP SHOWERS
WITH THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE OF THE
SCATTERED VARIETY. WILL GO WITH VCSH AND ALLOW LATER PACKAGES TO
FINE TUNE TIMING/LOCATIONS OF ANY PRECIPITATION. INSTABILITY
CONTINUES TO BE LACKING SO EXPECT ONLY AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR TS.
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE REDEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT BUT ANY
ADVERSE CONDITIONS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE SETTING IN AFTER THIS
VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDOWS
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR VFR CONDITIONS INCREASE INTO MON/TUE. UPPER
LOW/TROUGH WILL LINGER WEST OF THE VA/NC COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN BEGIN TO DRIFT INTO
NORTHERN VA BY MON. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE OH VALLEY BY WED. THIS LEAVES A VERY UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH
IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR-
VFR OUTSIDE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOONS. AT THIS
POINT...TUESDAY APPEARS TO OFFER THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS/WP
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...MBS/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 040241
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1041 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WORK SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT
WILL HANG UP JUST SOUTH OF US SATURDAY NIGH INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP OUR AREA IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT FRIDAY...

RADAR SHOWED ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS
MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. HAVE
ADJUSTED PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR
TRENDS.

WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR BLUEFIELD TO NEAR DANVILLE. NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY WINDS WERE STILL OUT OF THE EAST TO NORTHEAST WITH
LOW CLOUDS AND DEW POINT DEPRESSION NEAR ZERO. LITTLE DROP IN
TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG IN THE
FORECAST TONIGHT FOR A LARGE PART OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. AS
THE FRONT DRIFTS NORTH CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIFT...BUT IT MAY BE
MID MORNING BEFORE THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS AND AREAS NORTH OF
ROUTE-460 GET OUT OF THE STRATUS AND FOG.

AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THE MODELS SEEM TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE PATTERN TAKING
WAVY FRONT NORTH OF US SATURDAY MORNING. UNTIL THEN EXPECT SHOWERS
AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...WITH ONE
UPPER WAVE PASSING BY. A WINDOW OF SOMEWHAT DRY WX OCCURS
OVERNIGHT BEFORE THE ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NC MTNS
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SECOND WAVE ONCE IT MOVES
EAST OF US MIDDAY SATURDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A "COLD" FRONT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS. GIVEN THE FLOW
TURNS MORE SW THEN WEST THE POPS WERE FOR MORE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
COVERAGE AND NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN SATURDAY BUT HALF TO 3/4 OF
YOU WILL AT LEAST FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING.

WITH CLOUDS AROUND TONIGHT...AND HIGH MOIST SFC CONDITIONS KEPT LOWS
AS WE HAVE HAD THEM THE PAST FEW NIGHTS LOWER TO MID 60S WEST TO
UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 EAST.

MAY SEE SOME SUNSHINE SATURDAY SO HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN TODAY RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S WEST TO LOWER OR MID
80S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH
AS LOW CENTER MOVES AWAY FROM OUR AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
TO NEAR 70 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.

THE FRONT GET HUNG UP ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH AS CUTOFF LOW TAKES
SHAPE OVER NORTH CAROLINA. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY...BUT THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL HINDER INSTABILITY.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN...BUT GIVEN THAT
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...THIS FURTHER REDUCES CONCERNS OF FLOODING. WITH CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN...LEANED HIGHS TOWARDS THE COOLER MOS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS FROM AROUND
70 DEGREES IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT.

THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE EAST. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL LINGER SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM AROUND 60 DEGREES TO THE UPPER 60S.

THE CLOUDY WET WEATHER CONTINUES MONDAY AS THE REMNANT UPPER LOW
DRIFTS INTO NORTHERN VA. THE BEST COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS...BUT DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION COMPARED TO SUNDAY. WILL HOLD ON TO HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS FOR MONDAY. INSTABILITY APPEARS MARGINAL AND THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL REMAIN THAT OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH TEMPERATURES
MONDAY WILL VARY FROM THE MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 80S IN
THE PIEDMONT.

TAPER OF POPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AS SHOWN ON GFS
AND ECMWF. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER
50S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

ON TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE ACROSS NORTHERN VIRGINIA WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S IN THE
MOUNTAINS T0 THE UPPER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT. COLD FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...WHILE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH
EAST TO THE ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S.

THE FRONT DRIFTS SOUTH WEDNESDAY AND STALLS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL AVERAGE FROM THE MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
THE UPPER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT.  THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR
REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY GOES IS DIFFERENT DEPENDING ON MODEL
CHOICE. THE ECMWF PUSHING THE COLD FRONT FARTHER SOUTH WITH SOME
SUPPORTIVE UPPER TROUGHINESS COMPARED TO GFS.

ONCE AGAIN WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AND RIDE ALONG
THE FRONT KEEPING A GOOD CHANCES OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WILL MODERATE TO AROUND 80 DEGREES IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM
MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT FRIDAY...

STABLE LAYER AIRMASS/WEAK WEDGE EXISTS NORTH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER THE CAROLINAS. FRONT WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. NORTH OF THE FRONT EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR
CEILINGS AND PATCHY MVFR TO IFR FOG. AS AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
SHOWERS TRACK ACROSS THE REGION...VISIBILITIES MAY BRIEFLY
IMPROVE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE WARM FRONT. IT
MAY NOT BE UNTIL MID MORNING THAT CEILING AND VISIBILITY AT KLYH
IMPROVE.

WINDS SHOULD TURN MORE SW THEN WEST BY NOON/16Z SATURDAY...WITH
CIGS RISING TO AT LEAST MVFR. LOWER CONFIDENCE ABOUT THE COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT ANY TSRA/SHRA OUT OF THE TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDOWS
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR VFR CONDITIONS INCREASE INTO MON/TUE. UPPER
LOW/TROUGH WILL LINGER WEST OF THE VA/NC COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN BEGIN TO DRIFT INTO
NORTHERN VA BY MON. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE OH VALLEY BY WED. THIS LEAVES A VERY UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH
IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR-
VFR OUTSIDE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOONS. AT THIS
POINT...TUESDAY APPEARS TO OFFER THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS/WP
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...RAB/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 040241
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1041 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WORK SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT
WILL HANG UP JUST SOUTH OF US SATURDAY NIGH INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP OUR AREA IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT FRIDAY...

RADAR SHOWED ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS
MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. HAVE
ADJUSTED PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR
TRENDS.

WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR BLUEFIELD TO NEAR DANVILLE. NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY WINDS WERE STILL OUT OF THE EAST TO NORTHEAST WITH
LOW CLOUDS AND DEW POINT DEPRESSION NEAR ZERO. LITTLE DROP IN
TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG IN THE
FORECAST TONIGHT FOR A LARGE PART OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. AS
THE FRONT DRIFTS NORTH CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIFT...BUT IT MAY BE
MID MORNING BEFORE THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS AND AREAS NORTH OF
ROUTE-460 GET OUT OF THE STRATUS AND FOG.

AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THE MODELS SEEM TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE PATTERN TAKING
WAVY FRONT NORTH OF US SATURDAY MORNING. UNTIL THEN EXPECT SHOWERS
AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...WITH ONE
UPPER WAVE PASSING BY. A WINDOW OF SOMEWHAT DRY WX OCCURS
OVERNIGHT BEFORE THE ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NC MTNS
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SECOND WAVE ONCE IT MOVES
EAST OF US MIDDAY SATURDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A "COLD" FRONT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS. GIVEN THE FLOW
TURNS MORE SW THEN WEST THE POPS WERE FOR MORE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
COVERAGE AND NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN SATURDAY BUT HALF TO 3/4 OF
YOU WILL AT LEAST FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING.

WITH CLOUDS AROUND TONIGHT...AND HIGH MOIST SFC CONDITIONS KEPT LOWS
AS WE HAVE HAD THEM THE PAST FEW NIGHTS LOWER TO MID 60S WEST TO
UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 EAST.

MAY SEE SOME SUNSHINE SATURDAY SO HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN TODAY RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S WEST TO LOWER OR MID
80S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH
AS LOW CENTER MOVES AWAY FROM OUR AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
TO NEAR 70 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.

THE FRONT GET HUNG UP ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH AS CUTOFF LOW TAKES
SHAPE OVER NORTH CAROLINA. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY...BUT THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL HINDER INSTABILITY.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN...BUT GIVEN THAT
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...THIS FURTHER REDUCES CONCERNS OF FLOODING. WITH CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN...LEANED HIGHS TOWARDS THE COOLER MOS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS FROM AROUND
70 DEGREES IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT.

THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE EAST. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL LINGER SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM AROUND 60 DEGREES TO THE UPPER 60S.

THE CLOUDY WET WEATHER CONTINUES MONDAY AS THE REMNANT UPPER LOW
DRIFTS INTO NORTHERN VA. THE BEST COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS...BUT DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION COMPARED TO SUNDAY. WILL HOLD ON TO HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS FOR MONDAY. INSTABILITY APPEARS MARGINAL AND THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL REMAIN THAT OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH TEMPERATURES
MONDAY WILL VARY FROM THE MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 80S IN
THE PIEDMONT.

TAPER OF POPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AS SHOWN ON GFS
AND ECMWF. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER
50S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

ON TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE ACROSS NORTHERN VIRGINIA WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S IN THE
MOUNTAINS T0 THE UPPER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT. COLD FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...WHILE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH
EAST TO THE ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S.

THE FRONT DRIFTS SOUTH WEDNESDAY AND STALLS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL AVERAGE FROM THE MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
THE UPPER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT.  THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR
REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY GOES IS DIFFERENT DEPENDING ON MODEL
CHOICE. THE ECMWF PUSHING THE COLD FRONT FARTHER SOUTH WITH SOME
SUPPORTIVE UPPER TROUGHINESS COMPARED TO GFS.

ONCE AGAIN WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AND RIDE ALONG
THE FRONT KEEPING A GOOD CHANCES OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WILL MODERATE TO AROUND 80 DEGREES IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM
MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT FRIDAY...

STABLE LAYER AIRMASS/WEAK WEDGE EXISTS NORTH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER THE CAROLINAS. FRONT WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. NORTH OF THE FRONT EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR
CEILINGS AND PATCHY MVFR TO IFR FOG. AS AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
SHOWERS TRACK ACROSS THE REGION...VISIBILITIES MAY BRIEFLY
IMPROVE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE WARM FRONT. IT
MAY NOT BE UNTIL MID MORNING THAT CEILING AND VISIBILITY AT KLYH
IMPROVE.

WINDS SHOULD TURN MORE SW THEN WEST BY NOON/16Z SATURDAY...WITH
CIGS RISING TO AT LEAST MVFR. LOWER CONFIDENCE ABOUT THE COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT ANY TSRA/SHRA OUT OF THE TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDOWS
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR VFR CONDITIONS INCREASE INTO MON/TUE. UPPER
LOW/TROUGH WILL LINGER WEST OF THE VA/NC COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN BEGIN TO DRIFT INTO
NORTHERN VA BY MON. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE OH VALLEY BY WED. THIS LEAVES A VERY UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH
IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR-
VFR OUTSIDE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOONS. AT THIS
POINT...TUESDAY APPEARS TO OFFER THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS/WP
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...RAB/WP



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 040205
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1005 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WITH THE CHANCES FOR RAIN EACH DAY. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH
OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD
MOVE INTO THE THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM EDT...A BATCH OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN HAS
DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN VA THIS EVENING...EXTENDING
SOUTH INTO COASTAL NE NC. SOME IMPRESSIVE RAIN AMOUNTS OCCURRED
EARLIER THIS EVENING WITH LOCATIONS SUCH AS EDENTON AND ELIZABETH
CITY IN NE NC PICKING UP BETWEEN 1.00-2.25" OF RAIN IN AN HOUR OR
SO. LUCKILY...COUNTY OFFICIALS DID NOT REPORT ANY FLOODING ISSUES.
ELSEWHERE...RAIN AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.50-1.00" WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS HAVE FALLEN ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN VA SO FAR. THIS BATCH OF RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NORTH OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY
OVER NE NC LIFTS NORTH...AND A SFC LOW OVER THE OH VALLEY HEADS
FOR NOVA. HAVE LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA
OVERNIGHT...EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONING TO JUST THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE FA TOWARD DAYBREAK. QPF AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT WILL MAINLY BE ON
THE ORDER OF 0.25-1.00" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS (THESE TOTALS
DO NOT INCLUDE WHAT ALREADY FELL BEFORE 10 PM). LOWS OVERNIGHT IN
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

SATURDAY...THE SFC LOW WILL BE EXITING OFF THE COAST AND WILL
PUSH OFF THE COAST AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH PULLS OFF THE COAST.
THIS WILL PULL THE FRONT BACK TOWARD THE SOUTH...BUT WITHOUT A
STRONG NW PUSH...THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE AND THIS WILL
ALLOW THE SET UP FOR MORE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE SRN
PORTION OF THE AREA. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS SRN VA AND
NE NC FOR THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AGAIN BASIN
AVERAGES IN THE 0.25 TO 0.50 RANGE ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH POSSIBLE. FOR TEMPERATURES...FURTHER
TO THE NORTH AND WEST NEAR THE FRONT READINGS SHOULD BE HELD DOWN
BY CLOUDS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...BUT FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS ARE HAVING SOME INCONSISTENCIES WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THE UPPER LOW FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE NAM HAS BEEN FURTHER
WEST WITH THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW. THIS SEEMS TO BE THE
OUTLIER SO HAVE GONE MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVING THE
UPPER LOW DEVELOP OVER ERN KY AND LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE MORE CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

ON SAT NIGHT THE FRONT SHOULD STALL NR THE VA/NC BORDER AND COULD
STILL PRODUCES SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. NORTH OF THE
FRONT ENOUGH DRY AIR SLIDES IN AND WITH LITTLE FORCING SHOULD SEE
DRY WX. AS A RESULT FOR TEMPS OVERNIGHT WENT A LITTLE COOLER TO
THE NORTH IN THE MID 60S WHILE TO THE SOUTH KEPT READINGS IN THE
U60S TO L70S.

ON SUNDAY WITH THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY AND AGAIN BEGINNING TO
LIFT NORTHWARD AS THE UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER ERN KY...HAVE
INCREASED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND THEN BACK INTO
THE PIEDMONT WITH THE DEVELOPING SERLY FLOW. ONLY THE LOWER MD ERN
SHORE AREA HAS THE CHANCE FOR A DRY DAY. TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S.

THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BEGINS TO DIMINISH SOME SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE FORCING IS WEAK AND WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY
EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO WANE A BIT SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT AS THE UPPER
LOW BEGINS TO EJECT NEWD AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING
TROUGH/FRONT...SHOULD SEE MORE SHOWERS DEVELOP AS THE LOW EXITS.
FOR TEMPS...LEANED WARM SUN NIGHT WITH CLOUDS AROUND...KEEPING THE
U60S TO L70 VALUES WITH HIGHS ON MON IN THE MID 80S...ASSUMING
MORE CLOUDS AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY CONTINUED LOW AMPLITUDE
UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH GRADUAL RE-REEMERGENCE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT THAT WITH OCCASIONAL UPPER
DISTURBANCES/PERTURBATIONS PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC,
AS WEAK SFC TROUGH PERSISTS IN PLACE OVERHEAD, MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHC
RANGE BY DAY (NEAR CLIMO NORMS), W/ SLIGHT CHC OR LESS OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST PW VALUES WILL ALSO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD...LINGERING AROUND +2 S.D. ABOVE NORMAL. ACCORDINGLY, WE`LL
NEED TO BE ON GUARD FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, WITH THIS INCREASED HUMIDITY/DEWPOINTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD, CONTINUED TO RIDE ON THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE WITH
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...GENERALLY FAVORING A TYPICAL
MID-JULY WARM/MODERATELY HUMID SET UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 INLAND,
WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS 65 TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARM FNTL BNDRY WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH TONIGHT THRU THE CWA. MDLS
TRACK SFC LO PRES FM THE OH/TN VLYS THROUGH THE NRN MDATLC RGN FM
LATE TDA THROUGH SAT. LOW PRES ALONG THE FRONT WILL HELP TO
DEVELOP AND DEVELOP SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A
SECOND OF PCPN IS PSBL SAT NGT/SUN AS FNTL BNDRY SINKS S
AGN...AND WK SFC LO PRES TRACKS THROUGH NC. CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING/DURATION OF ANY IFR CONDS LO ATTM INTO SUN (AND LIKELY TO
BE CONFINED TO PDS OF PCPN).

&&

.MARINE...
UNSETTLED WX CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS OVER THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LATEST OBS REFLECT E-SE FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY LYING JUST TO OUR SOUTH THIS
AFTN. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING
(BRIEF HVY RAIN POSSIBLE IN ANY TSTORMS THIS EVENING). RESULTANT
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN WINDS INCREASING AND VEERING
AROUND TO THE S-SE TONIGHT, WITH A SMALL 3-6 HOUR WINDOW OF MARGINAL
SCA CONDS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER BAY TOWARDS THE MOUTH OF CHES BAY.
HAVE HOSTED SCA IN THE CHES BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT FOR WINDS
TO LOW END SCA FOR A BRIEF PERIOD TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.
THE MEANDERING FRONT WILL DROP BACK SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING
W/SFC LOW EXITING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST SOUTH OF CAPE COD. WAVES
AVG 1-2 FT...SEAS 2-4FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ632-634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS
NEAR TERM...ESS/JDM
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...MAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 040205
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1005 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WITH THE CHANCES FOR RAIN EACH DAY. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH
OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD
MOVE INTO THE THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM EDT...A BATCH OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN HAS
DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN VA THIS EVENING...EXTENDING
SOUTH INTO COASTAL NE NC. SOME IMPRESSIVE RAIN AMOUNTS OCCURRED
EARLIER THIS EVENING WITH LOCATIONS SUCH AS EDENTON AND ELIZABETH
CITY IN NE NC PICKING UP BETWEEN 1.00-2.25" OF RAIN IN AN HOUR OR
SO. LUCKILY...COUNTY OFFICIALS DID NOT REPORT ANY FLOODING ISSUES.
ELSEWHERE...RAIN AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.50-1.00" WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS HAVE FALLEN ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN VA SO FAR. THIS BATCH OF RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NORTH OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY
OVER NE NC LIFTS NORTH...AND A SFC LOW OVER THE OH VALLEY HEADS
FOR NOVA. HAVE LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA
OVERNIGHT...EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONING TO JUST THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE FA TOWARD DAYBREAK. QPF AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT WILL MAINLY BE ON
THE ORDER OF 0.25-1.00" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS (THESE TOTALS
DO NOT INCLUDE WHAT ALREADY FELL BEFORE 10 PM). LOWS OVERNIGHT IN
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

SATURDAY...THE SFC LOW WILL BE EXITING OFF THE COAST AND WILL
PUSH OFF THE COAST AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH PULLS OFF THE COAST.
THIS WILL PULL THE FRONT BACK TOWARD THE SOUTH...BUT WITHOUT A
STRONG NW PUSH...THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE AND THIS WILL
ALLOW THE SET UP FOR MORE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE SRN
PORTION OF THE AREA. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS SRN VA AND
NE NC FOR THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AGAIN BASIN
AVERAGES IN THE 0.25 TO 0.50 RANGE ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH POSSIBLE. FOR TEMPERATURES...FURTHER
TO THE NORTH AND WEST NEAR THE FRONT READINGS SHOULD BE HELD DOWN
BY CLOUDS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...BUT FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS ARE HAVING SOME INCONSISTENCIES WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THE UPPER LOW FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE NAM HAS BEEN FURTHER
WEST WITH THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW. THIS SEEMS TO BE THE
OUTLIER SO HAVE GONE MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVING THE
UPPER LOW DEVELOP OVER ERN KY AND LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE MORE CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

ON SAT NIGHT THE FRONT SHOULD STALL NR THE VA/NC BORDER AND COULD
STILL PRODUCES SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. NORTH OF THE
FRONT ENOUGH DRY AIR SLIDES IN AND WITH LITTLE FORCING SHOULD SEE
DRY WX. AS A RESULT FOR TEMPS OVERNIGHT WENT A LITTLE COOLER TO
THE NORTH IN THE MID 60S WHILE TO THE SOUTH KEPT READINGS IN THE
U60S TO L70S.

ON SUNDAY WITH THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY AND AGAIN BEGINNING TO
LIFT NORTHWARD AS THE UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER ERN KY...HAVE
INCREASED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND THEN BACK INTO
THE PIEDMONT WITH THE DEVELOPING SERLY FLOW. ONLY THE LOWER MD ERN
SHORE AREA HAS THE CHANCE FOR A DRY DAY. TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S.

THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BEGINS TO DIMINISH SOME SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE FORCING IS WEAK AND WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY
EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO WANE A BIT SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT AS THE UPPER
LOW BEGINS TO EJECT NEWD AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING
TROUGH/FRONT...SHOULD SEE MORE SHOWERS DEVELOP AS THE LOW EXITS.
FOR TEMPS...LEANED WARM SUN NIGHT WITH CLOUDS AROUND...KEEPING THE
U60S TO L70 VALUES WITH HIGHS ON MON IN THE MID 80S...ASSUMING
MORE CLOUDS AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY CONTINUED LOW AMPLITUDE
UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH GRADUAL RE-REEMERGENCE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT THAT WITH OCCASIONAL UPPER
DISTURBANCES/PERTURBATIONS PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC,
AS WEAK SFC TROUGH PERSISTS IN PLACE OVERHEAD, MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHC
RANGE BY DAY (NEAR CLIMO NORMS), W/ SLIGHT CHC OR LESS OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST PW VALUES WILL ALSO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD...LINGERING AROUND +2 S.D. ABOVE NORMAL. ACCORDINGLY, WE`LL
NEED TO BE ON GUARD FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, WITH THIS INCREASED HUMIDITY/DEWPOINTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD, CONTINUED TO RIDE ON THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE WITH
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...GENERALLY FAVORING A TYPICAL
MID-JULY WARM/MODERATELY HUMID SET UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 INLAND,
WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS 65 TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARM FNTL BNDRY WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH TONIGHT THRU THE CWA. MDLS
TRACK SFC LO PRES FM THE OH/TN VLYS THROUGH THE NRN MDATLC RGN FM
LATE TDA THROUGH SAT. LOW PRES ALONG THE FRONT WILL HELP TO
DEVELOP AND DEVELOP SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A
SECOND OF PCPN IS PSBL SAT NGT/SUN AS FNTL BNDRY SINKS S
AGN...AND WK SFC LO PRES TRACKS THROUGH NC. CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING/DURATION OF ANY IFR CONDS LO ATTM INTO SUN (AND LIKELY TO
BE CONFINED TO PDS OF PCPN).

&&

.MARINE...
UNSETTLED WX CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS OVER THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LATEST OBS REFLECT E-SE FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY LYING JUST TO OUR SOUTH THIS
AFTN. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING
(BRIEF HVY RAIN POSSIBLE IN ANY TSTORMS THIS EVENING). RESULTANT
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN WINDS INCREASING AND VEERING
AROUND TO THE S-SE TONIGHT, WITH A SMALL 3-6 HOUR WINDOW OF MARGINAL
SCA CONDS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER BAY TOWARDS THE MOUTH OF CHES BAY.
HAVE HOSTED SCA IN THE CHES BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT FOR WINDS
TO LOW END SCA FOR A BRIEF PERIOD TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.
THE MEANDERING FRONT WILL DROP BACK SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING
W/SFC LOW EXITING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST SOUTH OF CAPE COD. WAVES
AVG 1-2 FT...SEAS 2-4FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ632-634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS
NEAR TERM...ESS/JDM
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...MAM



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 040205
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1005 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WITH THE CHANCES FOR RAIN EACH DAY. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH
OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD
MOVE INTO THE THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM EDT...A BATCH OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN HAS
DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN VA THIS EVENING...EXTENDING
SOUTH INTO COASTAL NE NC. SOME IMPRESSIVE RAIN AMOUNTS OCCURRED
EARLIER THIS EVENING WITH LOCATIONS SUCH AS EDENTON AND ELIZABETH
CITY IN NE NC PICKING UP BETWEEN 1.00-2.25" OF RAIN IN AN HOUR OR
SO. LUCKILY...COUNTY OFFICIALS DID NOT REPORT ANY FLOODING ISSUES.
ELSEWHERE...RAIN AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.50-1.00" WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS HAVE FALLEN ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN VA SO FAR. THIS BATCH OF RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NORTH OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY
OVER NE NC LIFTS NORTH...AND A SFC LOW OVER THE OH VALLEY HEADS
FOR NOVA. HAVE LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA
OVERNIGHT...EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONING TO JUST THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE FA TOWARD DAYBREAK. QPF AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT WILL MAINLY BE ON
THE ORDER OF 0.25-1.00" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS (THESE TOTALS
DO NOT INCLUDE WHAT ALREADY FELL BEFORE 10 PM). LOWS OVERNIGHT IN
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

SATURDAY...THE SFC LOW WILL BE EXITING OFF THE COAST AND WILL
PUSH OFF THE COAST AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH PULLS OFF THE COAST.
THIS WILL PULL THE FRONT BACK TOWARD THE SOUTH...BUT WITHOUT A
STRONG NW PUSH...THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE AND THIS WILL
ALLOW THE SET UP FOR MORE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE SRN
PORTION OF THE AREA. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS SRN VA AND
NE NC FOR THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AGAIN BASIN
AVERAGES IN THE 0.25 TO 0.50 RANGE ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH POSSIBLE. FOR TEMPERATURES...FURTHER
TO THE NORTH AND WEST NEAR THE FRONT READINGS SHOULD BE HELD DOWN
BY CLOUDS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...BUT FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS ARE HAVING SOME INCONSISTENCIES WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THE UPPER LOW FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE NAM HAS BEEN FURTHER
WEST WITH THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW. THIS SEEMS TO BE THE
OUTLIER SO HAVE GONE MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVING THE
UPPER LOW DEVELOP OVER ERN KY AND LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE MORE CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

ON SAT NIGHT THE FRONT SHOULD STALL NR THE VA/NC BORDER AND COULD
STILL PRODUCES SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. NORTH OF THE
FRONT ENOUGH DRY AIR SLIDES IN AND WITH LITTLE FORCING SHOULD SEE
DRY WX. AS A RESULT FOR TEMPS OVERNIGHT WENT A LITTLE COOLER TO
THE NORTH IN THE MID 60S WHILE TO THE SOUTH KEPT READINGS IN THE
U60S TO L70S.

ON SUNDAY WITH THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY AND AGAIN BEGINNING TO
LIFT NORTHWARD AS THE UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER ERN KY...HAVE
INCREASED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND THEN BACK INTO
THE PIEDMONT WITH THE DEVELOPING SERLY FLOW. ONLY THE LOWER MD ERN
SHORE AREA HAS THE CHANCE FOR A DRY DAY. TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S.

THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BEGINS TO DIMINISH SOME SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE FORCING IS WEAK AND WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY
EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO WANE A BIT SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT AS THE UPPER
LOW BEGINS TO EJECT NEWD AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING
TROUGH/FRONT...SHOULD SEE MORE SHOWERS DEVELOP AS THE LOW EXITS.
FOR TEMPS...LEANED WARM SUN NIGHT WITH CLOUDS AROUND...KEEPING THE
U60S TO L70 VALUES WITH HIGHS ON MON IN THE MID 80S...ASSUMING
MORE CLOUDS AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY CONTINUED LOW AMPLITUDE
UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH GRADUAL RE-REEMERGENCE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT THAT WITH OCCASIONAL UPPER
DISTURBANCES/PERTURBATIONS PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC,
AS WEAK SFC TROUGH PERSISTS IN PLACE OVERHEAD, MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHC
RANGE BY DAY (NEAR CLIMO NORMS), W/ SLIGHT CHC OR LESS OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST PW VALUES WILL ALSO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD...LINGERING AROUND +2 S.D. ABOVE NORMAL. ACCORDINGLY, WE`LL
NEED TO BE ON GUARD FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, WITH THIS INCREASED HUMIDITY/DEWPOINTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD, CONTINUED TO RIDE ON THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE WITH
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...GENERALLY FAVORING A TYPICAL
MID-JULY WARM/MODERATELY HUMID SET UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 INLAND,
WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS 65 TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARM FNTL BNDRY WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH TONIGHT THRU THE CWA. MDLS
TRACK SFC LO PRES FM THE OH/TN VLYS THROUGH THE NRN MDATLC RGN FM
LATE TDA THROUGH SAT. LOW PRES ALONG THE FRONT WILL HELP TO
DEVELOP AND DEVELOP SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A
SECOND OF PCPN IS PSBL SAT NGT/SUN AS FNTL BNDRY SINKS S
AGN...AND WK SFC LO PRES TRACKS THROUGH NC. CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING/DURATION OF ANY IFR CONDS LO ATTM INTO SUN (AND LIKELY TO
BE CONFINED TO PDS OF PCPN).

&&

.MARINE...
UNSETTLED WX CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS OVER THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LATEST OBS REFLECT E-SE FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY LYING JUST TO OUR SOUTH THIS
AFTN. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING
(BRIEF HVY RAIN POSSIBLE IN ANY TSTORMS THIS EVENING). RESULTANT
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN WINDS INCREASING AND VEERING
AROUND TO THE S-SE TONIGHT, WITH A SMALL 3-6 HOUR WINDOW OF MARGINAL
SCA CONDS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER BAY TOWARDS THE MOUTH OF CHES BAY.
HAVE HOSTED SCA IN THE CHES BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT FOR WINDS
TO LOW END SCA FOR A BRIEF PERIOD TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.
THE MEANDERING FRONT WILL DROP BACK SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING
W/SFC LOW EXITING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST SOUTH OF CAPE COD. WAVES
AVG 1-2 FT...SEAS 2-4FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ632-634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS
NEAR TERM...ESS/JDM
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...MAM



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 040048
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
848 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WITH THE CHANCES FOR RAIN EACH DAY. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH
OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD
MOVE INTO THE THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVED SOUTH OF THE ARE YESTERDAY IS
BEGINNING TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING
INTO SRN OHIO ALONG WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS
STILL IN NORTHERN NC THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOWERS AND SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS
AND THE SFC LOW SLIDES INTO WRN VA AND LIFTS INTO CENTRAL MD BY
MORNING. EXPECT BRIEF DOWNPOURS WITH THESE SHOWERS WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAIN ALONG THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES. BASIN AVERAGE RAINS OF
0.25 TO 0.50 ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS SHOULD AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THE SFC LOW WILL BE EXITING OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY AND WILL
PUSH OFF THE COAST AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH PULLS OFF THE COAST.
THIS WILL PULL THE FRONT BACK TOWARD THE SOUTH...BUT WITHOUT A
STRONG NW PUSH...THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE AND THIS WILL
ALLOW THE SET UP FOR MORE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE SRN
PORTION OF THE AREA. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS SRN VA AND
NE NC FOR THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AGAIN BASIN
AVERAGES IN THE 0.25 TO 0.50 RANGE ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH POSSIBLE. FOR TEMPERATURES...FURTHER
TO THE NORTH AND WEST NEAR THE FRONT READINGS SHOULD BE HELD DOWN
BY CLOUDS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...BUT FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE HAVING SOME INCONSISTENCIES WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THE UPPER LOW FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE NAM HAS BEEN FURTHER
WEST WITH THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW. THIS SEEMS TO BE THE
OUTLIER SO HAVE GONE MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVING THE
UPPER LOW DEVELOP OVER ERN KY AND LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE MORE CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

ON SAT NIGHT THE FRONT SHOULD STALL NR THE VA/NC BORDER AND COULD
STILL PRODUCES SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. NORTH OF THE
FRONT ENOUGH DRY AIR SLIDES IN AND WITH LITTLE FORCING SHOULD SEE
DRY WX. AS A RESULT FOR TEMPS OVERNIGHT WENT A LITTLE COOLER TO
THE NORTH IN THE MID 60S WHILE TO THE SOUTH KEPT READINGS IN THE
U60S TO L70S.

ON SUNDAY WITH THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY AND AGAIN BEGINNING TO
LIFT NORTHWARD AS THE UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER ERN KY...HAVE
INCREASED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND THEN BACK INTO
THE PIEDMONT WITH THE DEVELOPING SERLY FLOW. ONLY THE LOWER MD ERN
SHORE AREA HAS THE CHANCE FOR A DRY DAY. TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S.

THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BEGINS TO DIMINISH SOME SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE FORCING IS WEAK AND WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY
EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO WANE A BIT SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT AS THE UPPER
LOW BEGINS TO EJECT NEWD AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING
TROUGH/FRONT...SHOULD SEE MORE SHOWERS DEVELOP AS THE LOW EXITS.
FOR TEMPS...LEANED WARM SUN NIGHT WITH CLOUDS AROUND...KEEPING THE
U60S TO L70 VALUES WITH HIGHS ON MON IN THE MID 80S...ASSUMING
MORE CLOUDS AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY CONTINUED LOW AMPLITUDE
UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH GRADUAL RE-REEMERGENCE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT THAT WITH OCCASIONAL UPPER
DISTURBANCES/PERTURBATIONS PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC,
AS WEAK SFC TROUGH PERSISTS IN PLACE OVERHEAD, MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHC
RANGE BY DAY (NEAR CLIMO NORMS), W/ SLIGHT CHC OR LESS OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST PW VALUES WILL ALSO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD...LINGERING AROUND +2 S.D. ABOVE NORMAL. ACCORDINGLY, WE`LL
NEED TO BE ON GUARD FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, WITH THIS INCREASED HUMIDITY/DEWPOINTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD, CONTINUED TO RIDE ON THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE WITH
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...GENERALLY FAVORING A TYPICAL
MID-JULY WARM/MODERATELY HUMID SET UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 INLAND,
WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS 65 TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARM FNTL BNDRY WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH TONIGHT THRU THE CWA. MDLS
TRACK SFC LO PRES FM THE OH/TN VLYS THROUGH THE NRN MDATLC RGN FM
LATE TDA THROUGH SAT. LOW PRES ALONG THE FRONT WILL HELP TO
DEVELOP AND DEVELOP SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A
SECOND OF PCPN IS PSBL SAT NGT/SUN AS FNTL BNDRY SINKS S
AGN...AND WK SFC LO PRES TRACKS THROUGH NC. CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING/DURATION OF ANY IFR CONDS LO ATTM INTO SUN (AND LIKELY TO
BE CONFINED TO PDS OF PCPN).

&&

.MARINE...
UNSETTLED WX CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS OVER THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LATEST OBS REFLECT E-SE FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY LYING JUST TO OUR SOUTH THIS
AFTN. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING
(BRIEF HVY RAIN POSSIBLE IN ANY TSTORMS THIS EVENING). RESULTANT
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN WINDS INCREASING AND VEERING
AROUND TO THE S-SE TONIGHT, WITH A SMALL 3-6 HOUR WINDOW OF MARGINAL
SCA CONDS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER BAY TOWARDS THE MOUTH OF CHES BAY.
HAVE HOSTED SCA IN THE CHES BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT FOR WINDS
TO LOW END SCA FOR A BRIEF PERIOD TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.
THE MEANDERING FRONT WILL DROP BACK SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING
W/SFC LOW EXITING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST SOUTH OF CAPE COD. WAVES
AVG 1-2 FT...SEAS 2-4FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ632-634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS
NEAR TERM...ESS
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...MAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 040048
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
848 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WITH THE CHANCES FOR RAIN EACH DAY. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH
OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD
MOVE INTO THE THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVED SOUTH OF THE ARE YESTERDAY IS
BEGINNING TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING
INTO SRN OHIO ALONG WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS
STILL IN NORTHERN NC THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOWERS AND SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS
AND THE SFC LOW SLIDES INTO WRN VA AND LIFTS INTO CENTRAL MD BY
MORNING. EXPECT BRIEF DOWNPOURS WITH THESE SHOWERS WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAIN ALONG THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES. BASIN AVERAGE RAINS OF
0.25 TO 0.50 ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS SHOULD AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THE SFC LOW WILL BE EXITING OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY AND WILL
PUSH OFF THE COAST AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH PULLS OFF THE COAST.
THIS WILL PULL THE FRONT BACK TOWARD THE SOUTH...BUT WITHOUT A
STRONG NW PUSH...THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE AND THIS WILL
ALLOW THE SET UP FOR MORE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE SRN
PORTION OF THE AREA. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS SRN VA AND
NE NC FOR THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AGAIN BASIN
AVERAGES IN THE 0.25 TO 0.50 RANGE ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH POSSIBLE. FOR TEMPERATURES...FURTHER
TO THE NORTH AND WEST NEAR THE FRONT READINGS SHOULD BE HELD DOWN
BY CLOUDS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...BUT FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE HAVING SOME INCONSISTENCIES WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THE UPPER LOW FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE NAM HAS BEEN FURTHER
WEST WITH THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW. THIS SEEMS TO BE THE
OUTLIER SO HAVE GONE MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVING THE
UPPER LOW DEVELOP OVER ERN KY AND LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE MORE CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

ON SAT NIGHT THE FRONT SHOULD STALL NR THE VA/NC BORDER AND COULD
STILL PRODUCES SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. NORTH OF THE
FRONT ENOUGH DRY AIR SLIDES IN AND WITH LITTLE FORCING SHOULD SEE
DRY WX. AS A RESULT FOR TEMPS OVERNIGHT WENT A LITTLE COOLER TO
THE NORTH IN THE MID 60S WHILE TO THE SOUTH KEPT READINGS IN THE
U60S TO L70S.

ON SUNDAY WITH THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY AND AGAIN BEGINNING TO
LIFT NORTHWARD AS THE UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER ERN KY...HAVE
INCREASED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND THEN BACK INTO
THE PIEDMONT WITH THE DEVELOPING SERLY FLOW. ONLY THE LOWER MD ERN
SHORE AREA HAS THE CHANCE FOR A DRY DAY. TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S.

THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BEGINS TO DIMINISH SOME SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE FORCING IS WEAK AND WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY
EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO WANE A BIT SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT AS THE UPPER
LOW BEGINS TO EJECT NEWD AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING
TROUGH/FRONT...SHOULD SEE MORE SHOWERS DEVELOP AS THE LOW EXITS.
FOR TEMPS...LEANED WARM SUN NIGHT WITH CLOUDS AROUND...KEEPING THE
U60S TO L70 VALUES WITH HIGHS ON MON IN THE MID 80S...ASSUMING
MORE CLOUDS AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY CONTINUED LOW AMPLITUDE
UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH GRADUAL RE-REEMERGENCE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT THAT WITH OCCASIONAL UPPER
DISTURBANCES/PERTURBATIONS PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC,
AS WEAK SFC TROUGH PERSISTS IN PLACE OVERHEAD, MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHC
RANGE BY DAY (NEAR CLIMO NORMS), W/ SLIGHT CHC OR LESS OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST PW VALUES WILL ALSO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD...LINGERING AROUND +2 S.D. ABOVE NORMAL. ACCORDINGLY, WE`LL
NEED TO BE ON GUARD FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, WITH THIS INCREASED HUMIDITY/DEWPOINTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD, CONTINUED TO RIDE ON THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE WITH
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...GENERALLY FAVORING A TYPICAL
MID-JULY WARM/MODERATELY HUMID SET UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 INLAND,
WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS 65 TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARM FNTL BNDRY WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH TONIGHT THRU THE CWA. MDLS
TRACK SFC LO PRES FM THE OH/TN VLYS THROUGH THE NRN MDATLC RGN FM
LATE TDA THROUGH SAT. LOW PRES ALONG THE FRONT WILL HELP TO
DEVELOP AND DEVELOP SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A
SECOND OF PCPN IS PSBL SAT NGT/SUN AS FNTL BNDRY SINKS S
AGN...AND WK SFC LO PRES TRACKS THROUGH NC. CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING/DURATION OF ANY IFR CONDS LO ATTM INTO SUN (AND LIKELY TO
BE CONFINED TO PDS OF PCPN).

&&

.MARINE...
UNSETTLED WX CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS OVER THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LATEST OBS REFLECT E-SE FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY LYING JUST TO OUR SOUTH THIS
AFTN. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING
(BRIEF HVY RAIN POSSIBLE IN ANY TSTORMS THIS EVENING). RESULTANT
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN WINDS INCREASING AND VEERING
AROUND TO THE S-SE TONIGHT, WITH A SMALL 3-6 HOUR WINDOW OF MARGINAL
SCA CONDS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER BAY TOWARDS THE MOUTH OF CHES BAY.
HAVE HOSTED SCA IN THE CHES BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT FOR WINDS
TO LOW END SCA FOR A BRIEF PERIOD TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.
THE MEANDERING FRONT WILL DROP BACK SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING
W/SFC LOW EXITING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST SOUTH OF CAPE COD. WAVES
AVG 1-2 FT...SEAS 2-4FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ632-634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS
NEAR TERM...ESS
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...MAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 040048
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
848 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WITH THE CHANCES FOR RAIN EACH DAY. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH
OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD
MOVE INTO THE THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVED SOUTH OF THE ARE YESTERDAY IS
BEGINNING TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING
INTO SRN OHIO ALONG WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS
STILL IN NORTHERN NC THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOWERS AND SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS
AND THE SFC LOW SLIDES INTO WRN VA AND LIFTS INTO CENTRAL MD BY
MORNING. EXPECT BRIEF DOWNPOURS WITH THESE SHOWERS WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAIN ALONG THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES. BASIN AVERAGE RAINS OF
0.25 TO 0.50 ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS SHOULD AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THE SFC LOW WILL BE EXITING OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY AND WILL
PUSH OFF THE COAST AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH PULLS OFF THE COAST.
THIS WILL PULL THE FRONT BACK TOWARD THE SOUTH...BUT WITHOUT A
STRONG NW PUSH...THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE AND THIS WILL
ALLOW THE SET UP FOR MORE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE SRN
PORTION OF THE AREA. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS SRN VA AND
NE NC FOR THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AGAIN BASIN
AVERAGES IN THE 0.25 TO 0.50 RANGE ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH POSSIBLE. FOR TEMPERATURES...FURTHER
TO THE NORTH AND WEST NEAR THE FRONT READINGS SHOULD BE HELD DOWN
BY CLOUDS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...BUT FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE HAVING SOME INCONSISTENCIES WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THE UPPER LOW FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE NAM HAS BEEN FURTHER
WEST WITH THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW. THIS SEEMS TO BE THE
OUTLIER SO HAVE GONE MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVING THE
UPPER LOW DEVELOP OVER ERN KY AND LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE MORE CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

ON SAT NIGHT THE FRONT SHOULD STALL NR THE VA/NC BORDER AND COULD
STILL PRODUCES SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. NORTH OF THE
FRONT ENOUGH DRY AIR SLIDES IN AND WITH LITTLE FORCING SHOULD SEE
DRY WX. AS A RESULT FOR TEMPS OVERNIGHT WENT A LITTLE COOLER TO
THE NORTH IN THE MID 60S WHILE TO THE SOUTH KEPT READINGS IN THE
U60S TO L70S.

ON SUNDAY WITH THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY AND AGAIN BEGINNING TO
LIFT NORTHWARD AS THE UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER ERN KY...HAVE
INCREASED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND THEN BACK INTO
THE PIEDMONT WITH THE DEVELOPING SERLY FLOW. ONLY THE LOWER MD ERN
SHORE AREA HAS THE CHANCE FOR A DRY DAY. TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S.

THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BEGINS TO DIMINISH SOME SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE FORCING IS WEAK AND WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY
EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO WANE A BIT SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT AS THE UPPER
LOW BEGINS TO EJECT NEWD AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING
TROUGH/FRONT...SHOULD SEE MORE SHOWERS DEVELOP AS THE LOW EXITS.
FOR TEMPS...LEANED WARM SUN NIGHT WITH CLOUDS AROUND...KEEPING THE
U60S TO L70 VALUES WITH HIGHS ON MON IN THE MID 80S...ASSUMING
MORE CLOUDS AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY CONTINUED LOW AMPLITUDE
UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH GRADUAL RE-REEMERGENCE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT THAT WITH OCCASIONAL UPPER
DISTURBANCES/PERTURBATIONS PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC,
AS WEAK SFC TROUGH PERSISTS IN PLACE OVERHEAD, MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHC
RANGE BY DAY (NEAR CLIMO NORMS), W/ SLIGHT CHC OR LESS OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST PW VALUES WILL ALSO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD...LINGERING AROUND +2 S.D. ABOVE NORMAL. ACCORDINGLY, WE`LL
NEED TO BE ON GUARD FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, WITH THIS INCREASED HUMIDITY/DEWPOINTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD, CONTINUED TO RIDE ON THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE WITH
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...GENERALLY FAVORING A TYPICAL
MID-JULY WARM/MODERATELY HUMID SET UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 INLAND,
WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS 65 TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARM FNTL BNDRY WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH TONIGHT THRU THE CWA. MDLS
TRACK SFC LO PRES FM THE OH/TN VLYS THROUGH THE NRN MDATLC RGN FM
LATE TDA THROUGH SAT. LOW PRES ALONG THE FRONT WILL HELP TO
DEVELOP AND DEVELOP SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A
SECOND OF PCPN IS PSBL SAT NGT/SUN AS FNTL BNDRY SINKS S
AGN...AND WK SFC LO PRES TRACKS THROUGH NC. CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING/DURATION OF ANY IFR CONDS LO ATTM INTO SUN (AND LIKELY TO
BE CONFINED TO PDS OF PCPN).

&&

.MARINE...
UNSETTLED WX CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS OVER THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LATEST OBS REFLECT E-SE FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY LYING JUST TO OUR SOUTH THIS
AFTN. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING
(BRIEF HVY RAIN POSSIBLE IN ANY TSTORMS THIS EVENING). RESULTANT
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN WINDS INCREASING AND VEERING
AROUND TO THE S-SE TONIGHT, WITH A SMALL 3-6 HOUR WINDOW OF MARGINAL
SCA CONDS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER BAY TOWARDS THE MOUTH OF CHES BAY.
HAVE HOSTED SCA IN THE CHES BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT FOR WINDS
TO LOW END SCA FOR A BRIEF PERIOD TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.
THE MEANDERING FRONT WILL DROP BACK SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING
W/SFC LOW EXITING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST SOUTH OF CAPE COD. WAVES
AVG 1-2 FT...SEAS 2-4FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ632-634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS
NEAR TERM...ESS
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...MAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 040048
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
848 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WITH THE CHANCES FOR RAIN EACH DAY. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH
OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD
MOVE INTO THE THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVED SOUTH OF THE ARE YESTERDAY IS
BEGINNING TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING
INTO SRN OHIO ALONG WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS
STILL IN NORTHERN NC THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOWERS AND SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS
AND THE SFC LOW SLIDES INTO WRN VA AND LIFTS INTO CENTRAL MD BY
MORNING. EXPECT BRIEF DOWNPOURS WITH THESE SHOWERS WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAIN ALONG THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES. BASIN AVERAGE RAINS OF
0.25 TO 0.50 ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS SHOULD AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THE SFC LOW WILL BE EXITING OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY AND WILL
PUSH OFF THE COAST AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH PULLS OFF THE COAST.
THIS WILL PULL THE FRONT BACK TOWARD THE SOUTH...BUT WITHOUT A
STRONG NW PUSH...THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE AND THIS WILL
ALLOW THE SET UP FOR MORE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE SRN
PORTION OF THE AREA. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS SRN VA AND
NE NC FOR THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AGAIN BASIN
AVERAGES IN THE 0.25 TO 0.50 RANGE ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH POSSIBLE. FOR TEMPERATURES...FURTHER
TO THE NORTH AND WEST NEAR THE FRONT READINGS SHOULD BE HELD DOWN
BY CLOUDS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...BUT FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE HAVING SOME INCONSISTENCIES WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THE UPPER LOW FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE NAM HAS BEEN FURTHER
WEST WITH THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW. THIS SEEMS TO BE THE
OUTLIER SO HAVE GONE MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVING THE
UPPER LOW DEVELOP OVER ERN KY AND LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE MORE CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

ON SAT NIGHT THE FRONT SHOULD STALL NR THE VA/NC BORDER AND COULD
STILL PRODUCES SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. NORTH OF THE
FRONT ENOUGH DRY AIR SLIDES IN AND WITH LITTLE FORCING SHOULD SEE
DRY WX. AS A RESULT FOR TEMPS OVERNIGHT WENT A LITTLE COOLER TO
THE NORTH IN THE MID 60S WHILE TO THE SOUTH KEPT READINGS IN THE
U60S TO L70S.

ON SUNDAY WITH THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY AND AGAIN BEGINNING TO
LIFT NORTHWARD AS THE UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER ERN KY...HAVE
INCREASED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND THEN BACK INTO
THE PIEDMONT WITH THE DEVELOPING SERLY FLOW. ONLY THE LOWER MD ERN
SHORE AREA HAS THE CHANCE FOR A DRY DAY. TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S.

THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BEGINS TO DIMINISH SOME SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE FORCING IS WEAK AND WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY
EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO WANE A BIT SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT AS THE UPPER
LOW BEGINS TO EJECT NEWD AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING
TROUGH/FRONT...SHOULD SEE MORE SHOWERS DEVELOP AS THE LOW EXITS.
FOR TEMPS...LEANED WARM SUN NIGHT WITH CLOUDS AROUND...KEEPING THE
U60S TO L70 VALUES WITH HIGHS ON MON IN THE MID 80S...ASSUMING
MORE CLOUDS AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY CONTINUED LOW AMPLITUDE
UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH GRADUAL RE-REEMERGENCE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT THAT WITH OCCASIONAL UPPER
DISTURBANCES/PERTURBATIONS PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC,
AS WEAK SFC TROUGH PERSISTS IN PLACE OVERHEAD, MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHC
RANGE BY DAY (NEAR CLIMO NORMS), W/ SLIGHT CHC OR LESS OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST PW VALUES WILL ALSO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD...LINGERING AROUND +2 S.D. ABOVE NORMAL. ACCORDINGLY, WE`LL
NEED TO BE ON GUARD FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, WITH THIS INCREASED HUMIDITY/DEWPOINTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD, CONTINUED TO RIDE ON THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE WITH
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...GENERALLY FAVORING A TYPICAL
MID-JULY WARM/MODERATELY HUMID SET UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 INLAND,
WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS 65 TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARM FNTL BNDRY WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH TONIGHT THRU THE CWA. MDLS
TRACK SFC LO PRES FM THE OH/TN VLYS THROUGH THE NRN MDATLC RGN FM
LATE TDA THROUGH SAT. LOW PRES ALONG THE FRONT WILL HELP TO
DEVELOP AND DEVELOP SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A
SECOND OF PCPN IS PSBL SAT NGT/SUN AS FNTL BNDRY SINKS S
AGN...AND WK SFC LO PRES TRACKS THROUGH NC. CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING/DURATION OF ANY IFR CONDS LO ATTM INTO SUN (AND LIKELY TO
BE CONFINED TO PDS OF PCPN).

&&

.MARINE...
UNSETTLED WX CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS OVER THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LATEST OBS REFLECT E-SE FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY LYING JUST TO OUR SOUTH THIS
AFTN. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING
(BRIEF HVY RAIN POSSIBLE IN ANY TSTORMS THIS EVENING). RESULTANT
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN WINDS INCREASING AND VEERING
AROUND TO THE S-SE TONIGHT, WITH A SMALL 3-6 HOUR WINDOW OF MARGINAL
SCA CONDS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER BAY TOWARDS THE MOUTH OF CHES BAY.
HAVE HOSTED SCA IN THE CHES BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT FOR WINDS
TO LOW END SCA FOR A BRIEF PERIOD TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.
THE MEANDERING FRONT WILL DROP BACK SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING
W/SFC LOW EXITING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST SOUTH OF CAPE COD. WAVES
AVG 1-2 FT...SEAS 2-4FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ632-634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS
NEAR TERM...ESS
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...MAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 040048
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
848 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WITH THE CHANCES FOR RAIN EACH DAY. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH
OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD
MOVE INTO THE THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVED SOUTH OF THE ARE YESTERDAY IS
BEGINNING TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING
INTO SRN OHIO ALONG WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS
STILL IN NORTHERN NC THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOWERS AND SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS
AND THE SFC LOW SLIDES INTO WRN VA AND LIFTS INTO CENTRAL MD BY
MORNING. EXPECT BRIEF DOWNPOURS WITH THESE SHOWERS WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAIN ALONG THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES. BASIN AVERAGE RAINS OF
0.25 TO 0.50 ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS SHOULD AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THE SFC LOW WILL BE EXITING OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY AND WILL
PUSH OFF THE COAST AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH PULLS OFF THE COAST.
THIS WILL PULL THE FRONT BACK TOWARD THE SOUTH...BUT WITHOUT A
STRONG NW PUSH...THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE AND THIS WILL
ALLOW THE SET UP FOR MORE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE SRN
PORTION OF THE AREA. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS SRN VA AND
NE NC FOR THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AGAIN BASIN
AVERAGES IN THE 0.25 TO 0.50 RANGE ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH POSSIBLE. FOR TEMPERATURES...FURTHER
TO THE NORTH AND WEST NEAR THE FRONT READINGS SHOULD BE HELD DOWN
BY CLOUDS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...BUT FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE HAVING SOME INCONSISTENCIES WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THE UPPER LOW FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE NAM HAS BEEN FURTHER
WEST WITH THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW. THIS SEEMS TO BE THE
OUTLIER SO HAVE GONE MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVING THE
UPPER LOW DEVELOP OVER ERN KY AND LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE MORE CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

ON SAT NIGHT THE FRONT SHOULD STALL NR THE VA/NC BORDER AND COULD
STILL PRODUCES SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. NORTH OF THE
FRONT ENOUGH DRY AIR SLIDES IN AND WITH LITTLE FORCING SHOULD SEE
DRY WX. AS A RESULT FOR TEMPS OVERNIGHT WENT A LITTLE COOLER TO
THE NORTH IN THE MID 60S WHILE TO THE SOUTH KEPT READINGS IN THE
U60S TO L70S.

ON SUNDAY WITH THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY AND AGAIN BEGINNING TO
LIFT NORTHWARD AS THE UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER ERN KY...HAVE
INCREASED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND THEN BACK INTO
THE PIEDMONT WITH THE DEVELOPING SERLY FLOW. ONLY THE LOWER MD ERN
SHORE AREA HAS THE CHANCE FOR A DRY DAY. TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S.

THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BEGINS TO DIMINISH SOME SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE FORCING IS WEAK AND WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY
EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO WANE A BIT SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT AS THE UPPER
LOW BEGINS TO EJECT NEWD AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING
TROUGH/FRONT...SHOULD SEE MORE SHOWERS DEVELOP AS THE LOW EXITS.
FOR TEMPS...LEANED WARM SUN NIGHT WITH CLOUDS AROUND...KEEPING THE
U60S TO L70 VALUES WITH HIGHS ON MON IN THE MID 80S...ASSUMING
MORE CLOUDS AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY CONTINUED LOW AMPLITUDE
UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH GRADUAL RE-REEMERGENCE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT THAT WITH OCCASIONAL UPPER
DISTURBANCES/PERTURBATIONS PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC,
AS WEAK SFC TROUGH PERSISTS IN PLACE OVERHEAD, MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHC
RANGE BY DAY (NEAR CLIMO NORMS), W/ SLIGHT CHC OR LESS OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST PW VALUES WILL ALSO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD...LINGERING AROUND +2 S.D. ABOVE NORMAL. ACCORDINGLY, WE`LL
NEED TO BE ON GUARD FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, WITH THIS INCREASED HUMIDITY/DEWPOINTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD, CONTINUED TO RIDE ON THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE WITH
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...GENERALLY FAVORING A TYPICAL
MID-JULY WARM/MODERATELY HUMID SET UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 INLAND,
WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS 65 TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARM FNTL BNDRY WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH TONIGHT THRU THE CWA. MDLS
TRACK SFC LO PRES FM THE OH/TN VLYS THROUGH THE NRN MDATLC RGN FM
LATE TDA THROUGH SAT. LOW PRES ALONG THE FRONT WILL HELP TO
DEVELOP AND DEVELOP SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A
SECOND OF PCPN IS PSBL SAT NGT/SUN AS FNTL BNDRY SINKS S
AGN...AND WK SFC LO PRES TRACKS THROUGH NC. CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING/DURATION OF ANY IFR CONDS LO ATTM INTO SUN (AND LIKELY TO
BE CONFINED TO PDS OF PCPN).

&&

.MARINE...
UNSETTLED WX CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS OVER THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LATEST OBS REFLECT E-SE FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY LYING JUST TO OUR SOUTH THIS
AFTN. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING
(BRIEF HVY RAIN POSSIBLE IN ANY TSTORMS THIS EVENING). RESULTANT
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN WINDS INCREASING AND VEERING
AROUND TO THE S-SE TONIGHT, WITH A SMALL 3-6 HOUR WINDOW OF MARGINAL
SCA CONDS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER BAY TOWARDS THE MOUTH OF CHES BAY.
HAVE HOSTED SCA IN THE CHES BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT FOR WINDS
TO LOW END SCA FOR A BRIEF PERIOD TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.
THE MEANDERING FRONT WILL DROP BACK SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING
W/SFC LOW EXITING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST SOUTH OF CAPE COD. WAVES
AVG 1-2 FT...SEAS 2-4FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ632-634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS
NEAR TERM...ESS
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...MAM



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 040048
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
848 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WITH THE CHANCES FOR RAIN EACH DAY. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH
OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD
MOVE INTO THE THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVED SOUTH OF THE ARE YESTERDAY IS
BEGINNING TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING
INTO SRN OHIO ALONG WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS
STILL IN NORTHERN NC THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOWERS AND SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS
AND THE SFC LOW SLIDES INTO WRN VA AND LIFTS INTO CENTRAL MD BY
MORNING. EXPECT BRIEF DOWNPOURS WITH THESE SHOWERS WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAIN ALONG THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES. BASIN AVERAGE RAINS OF
0.25 TO 0.50 ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS SHOULD AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THE SFC LOW WILL BE EXITING OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY AND WILL
PUSH OFF THE COAST AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH PULLS OFF THE COAST.
THIS WILL PULL THE FRONT BACK TOWARD THE SOUTH...BUT WITHOUT A
STRONG NW PUSH...THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE AND THIS WILL
ALLOW THE SET UP FOR MORE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE SRN
PORTION OF THE AREA. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS SRN VA AND
NE NC FOR THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AGAIN BASIN
AVERAGES IN THE 0.25 TO 0.50 RANGE ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH POSSIBLE. FOR TEMPERATURES...FURTHER
TO THE NORTH AND WEST NEAR THE FRONT READINGS SHOULD BE HELD DOWN
BY CLOUDS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...BUT FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE HAVING SOME INCONSISTENCIES WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THE UPPER LOW FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE NAM HAS BEEN FURTHER
WEST WITH THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW. THIS SEEMS TO BE THE
OUTLIER SO HAVE GONE MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVING THE
UPPER LOW DEVELOP OVER ERN KY AND LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE MORE CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

ON SAT NIGHT THE FRONT SHOULD STALL NR THE VA/NC BORDER AND COULD
STILL PRODUCES SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. NORTH OF THE
FRONT ENOUGH DRY AIR SLIDES IN AND WITH LITTLE FORCING SHOULD SEE
DRY WX. AS A RESULT FOR TEMPS OVERNIGHT WENT A LITTLE COOLER TO
THE NORTH IN THE MID 60S WHILE TO THE SOUTH KEPT READINGS IN THE
U60S TO L70S.

ON SUNDAY WITH THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY AND AGAIN BEGINNING TO
LIFT NORTHWARD AS THE UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER ERN KY...HAVE
INCREASED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND THEN BACK INTO
THE PIEDMONT WITH THE DEVELOPING SERLY FLOW. ONLY THE LOWER MD ERN
SHORE AREA HAS THE CHANCE FOR A DRY DAY. TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S.

THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BEGINS TO DIMINISH SOME SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE FORCING IS WEAK AND WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY
EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO WANE A BIT SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT AS THE UPPER
LOW BEGINS TO EJECT NEWD AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING
TROUGH/FRONT...SHOULD SEE MORE SHOWERS DEVELOP AS THE LOW EXITS.
FOR TEMPS...LEANED WARM SUN NIGHT WITH CLOUDS AROUND...KEEPING THE
U60S TO L70 VALUES WITH HIGHS ON MON IN THE MID 80S...ASSUMING
MORE CLOUDS AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY CONTINUED LOW AMPLITUDE
UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH GRADUAL RE-REEMERGENCE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT THAT WITH OCCASIONAL UPPER
DISTURBANCES/PERTURBATIONS PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC,
AS WEAK SFC TROUGH PERSISTS IN PLACE OVERHEAD, MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHC
RANGE BY DAY (NEAR CLIMO NORMS), W/ SLIGHT CHC OR LESS OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST PW VALUES WILL ALSO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD...LINGERING AROUND +2 S.D. ABOVE NORMAL. ACCORDINGLY, WE`LL
NEED TO BE ON GUARD FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, WITH THIS INCREASED HUMIDITY/DEWPOINTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD, CONTINUED TO RIDE ON THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE WITH
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...GENERALLY FAVORING A TYPICAL
MID-JULY WARM/MODERATELY HUMID SET UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 INLAND,
WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS 65 TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARM FNTL BNDRY WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH TONIGHT THRU THE CWA. MDLS
TRACK SFC LO PRES FM THE OH/TN VLYS THROUGH THE NRN MDATLC RGN FM
LATE TDA THROUGH SAT. LOW PRES ALONG THE FRONT WILL HELP TO
DEVELOP AND DEVELOP SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A
SECOND OF PCPN IS PSBL SAT NGT/SUN AS FNTL BNDRY SINKS S
AGN...AND WK SFC LO PRES TRACKS THROUGH NC. CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING/DURATION OF ANY IFR CONDS LO ATTM INTO SUN (AND LIKELY TO
BE CONFINED TO PDS OF PCPN).

&&

.MARINE...
UNSETTLED WX CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS OVER THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LATEST OBS REFLECT E-SE FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY LYING JUST TO OUR SOUTH THIS
AFTN. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING
(BRIEF HVY RAIN POSSIBLE IN ANY TSTORMS THIS EVENING). RESULTANT
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN WINDS INCREASING AND VEERING
AROUND TO THE S-SE TONIGHT, WITH A SMALL 3-6 HOUR WINDOW OF MARGINAL
SCA CONDS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER BAY TOWARDS THE MOUTH OF CHES BAY.
HAVE HOSTED SCA IN THE CHES BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT FOR WINDS
TO LOW END SCA FOR A BRIEF PERIOD TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.
THE MEANDERING FRONT WILL DROP BACK SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING
W/SFC LOW EXITING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST SOUTH OF CAPE COD. WAVES
AVG 1-2 FT...SEAS 2-4FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ632-634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS
NEAR TERM...ESS
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...MAM




000
FXUS61 KLWX 040004
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
804 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE EAST-NORTHEAST UP THE OHIO VALLEY
TONIGHT. A SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER VIRGINIA AND HEAD
EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY AND LINGER IN THE AREA FOR A FEW DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED OUT NEAR THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS INTO
CENTRAL VIRGINIA. SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS
MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING...AND THIS WILL CAUSE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT.

WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL OVERRUN THE SURFACE COOLER AIR IN
PLACE...CAUSING PLENTY OF CLOUDS ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF HEAVIER RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
FORCING ALONG THE 850MB BOUNDARY INCREASES DUE TO DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL TO OCCUR WILL BE IN THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS/SHENANDOAH VALLEY TOWARD NORTHERN MARYLAND AND THE
WESTERN SUBURBS OF WASHINGTON DC. A STABLE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
PREVENT TORRENTIAL RAINS FROM DEVELOPING...THEREFORE ANY FLOOD
THREAT WILL BE LIMITED AT BEST.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL EMERGE OVER THE DELMARVA PENINSULA SATURDAY
MORNING. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
EXTENDING THROUGH CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.
SHOWERS WILL BE WIDESPREAD SATURDAY MORNING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...BUT COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD DISSIPATE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATER IN THE MORNING AS THE LOW PULLS
FARTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA AND FORCING DISSIPATES IN THE LOWER-
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP
WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND
SOUTH/WEST OF THE BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS THE SHENANDOAH
VALLEY OF VIRGINIA INTO THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND VIRGINIA
PIEDMONT. FARTHER NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS...MUCH OF THE TIME MAY TURN OUT DRY.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
MARYLAND WHERE CLOUDS AND A COOL NORTHEAST WIND WILL PERSIST TO
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA WHERE WARMER AIR
IS EXPECTED SOUTH AND WEST OF THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT UPPER TROUGH MAY STILL KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IMPROVING...BUT IF
THERE IS CLEARING LATE SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP. LOWS WILL
AGAIN BE IN THE 60S.

NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HOVERING NEAR THE
VA/NC BORDER WILL BE MINIMAL ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
AT THE SFC UNDER A DEVELOPING RIDGE ALOFT. LOW PRESSURE RIDING THE
FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY 12Z SUN...WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEN
EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. DEPENDING ON WHERE EXACTLY
THE FRONT ALIGNS...A STRAY SHOWER OR TSTM COULD MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...SO WILL JUST CONTINUE WITH THE CHC
POPS FOR NOW. BY SUNDAY EVENING...12Z GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
INDICATING RIDGE AXIS ALIGNS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW PROGRESSION
OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO PROGRESS ALONG THE APPALACHIANS.
STILL UNSURE HOW FAR NORTH THE PCPN WILL PROGRESS DURING THE NIGHT
WITH ANY SFC BOUNDARIES LOOKING TO LINGER FURTHER SOUTH...AND NOT
PUSHING NORTH TILL THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WORK WEEK.

WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. 850MB
TEMPS RIGHT AROUND 13-14C...WITH MOST OF THE AREA PUSHING INTO
THE 80S. DEW PTS GENERALLY HOVERING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD BE GENERATED TO RESULT IN
THUNDER...WHEREVER ANY CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP. HOWEVER...LACK OF
SHEAR SHOULD KEEP TSTMS BELOW SVR LVLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW OPENING UP AND FLOW BECOMING ZONAL OVER
MID ATLANTIC REGION AS TROUGH ON NORTHERN TRACK MOVES EASTWARD.
NEXT TROUGH TO AFFECT REGION FRIDAY. AREAS OF WEAK TO MODERATE PVA
PRESENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER REGION WILL SLOWLY FILL THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND BE REPLACED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING.
DYNAMICS SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH
DRYING OVERNIGHT. MORE DEVELOPMENT DUE AS A FRONT FROM THE WEST
CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND CIGS SHOULD DROP TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT. VSBYS
WILL REDUCED TO MVFR LEVELS IN SHOWERS AND AREAS OF BR. LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SUBVFR CIGS MAY BE TOUGH TO ERODE DUE TO A
NORTHEAST FLOW. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS KCHO AND KMRB.
AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUBVFR CIGS/VSBYS PSBL INITIALLY SUN MORNING...WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE DAY. KCHO HAS THE
BEST CHC OF SEEING ANY PCPN SUN-SUN NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT...LESS THAN 8 KTS.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THRU NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH WILL INTENSIFY WINDS UP TO LOW-
END SCA LEVELS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAIN
CONCERN IS LOWERED VISIBILITY IN RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP
UP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE BAY AND
LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE BELOW
SCA CRITERIA SATURDAY NIGHT

WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT FLOW SUN-SUN
NIGHT...KEEPING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS IN PLACE. SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS
SUN NIGHT...THOUGH WITH MINIMAL IMPACT ON VSBY.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THRU NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SOME GUIDANCE IS SHOWING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS INTO THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY/NORTHERN MARYLAND
OVERNIGHT. THOUGHT WAS GIVEN TO THE POTENTIAL OF ISSUING A FLOOD
WATCH...BUT DUE TO A STABLE ATMOSPHERE AT THIS TIME...CURRENT
FEELING IS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL FALL SLOWLY ENOUGH AND BE LIGHT
ENOUGH TO NOT CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOOD CONCERNS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EASTERLY FLOW AROUND A PASSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HELP
ELEVATE WATER LEVELS ALONG TIDAL PORTIONS OF THE POTOMAC AND
MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE HIGH
TIDE WILL BE THE HIGHER OF THE TWO DURING THIS TIME.
THEREFORE...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR SENSITIVE AREAS
ALONG THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM BALTIMORE TO ST MARYS
COUNTY AND ALSO ALONG THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER IN WASHINGTON
DC AND ALEXANDRIA. THE MINOR FLOODING WILL BE MOST LIKELY AROUND
HIGH TIDE SATURDAY MORNING AND CONFINED MAINLY TO SENSITIVE AREAS.

ANOMALIES SHOULD DECREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE WINDS DEVELOPS BEHIND DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
     DCZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MDZ011-014.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MDZ017-018.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VAZ054.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ532-
     533-540>542.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ535-538.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ534-537-
     543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS
NEAR TERM...BJL/RCM
SHORT TERM...SEARS/RCM
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...BJL/CEM/SEARS/RCM
MARINE...BJL/CEM/SEARS/RCM
HYDROLOGY...BJL/RCM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL



000
FXUS61 KLWX 040004
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
804 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE EAST-NORTHEAST UP THE OHIO VALLEY
TONIGHT. A SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER VIRGINIA AND HEAD
EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY AND LINGER IN THE AREA FOR A FEW DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED OUT NEAR THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS INTO
CENTRAL VIRGINIA. SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS
MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING...AND THIS WILL CAUSE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT.

WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL OVERRUN THE SURFACE COOLER AIR IN
PLACE...CAUSING PLENTY OF CLOUDS ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF HEAVIER RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
FORCING ALONG THE 850MB BOUNDARY INCREASES DUE TO DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL TO OCCUR WILL BE IN THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS/SHENANDOAH VALLEY TOWARD NORTHERN MARYLAND AND THE
WESTERN SUBURBS OF WASHINGTON DC. A STABLE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
PREVENT TORRENTIAL RAINS FROM DEVELOPING...THEREFORE ANY FLOOD
THREAT WILL BE LIMITED AT BEST.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL EMERGE OVER THE DELMARVA PENINSULA SATURDAY
MORNING. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
EXTENDING THROUGH CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.
SHOWERS WILL BE WIDESPREAD SATURDAY MORNING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...BUT COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD DISSIPATE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATER IN THE MORNING AS THE LOW PULLS
FARTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA AND FORCING DISSIPATES IN THE LOWER-
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP
WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND
SOUTH/WEST OF THE BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS THE SHENANDOAH
VALLEY OF VIRGINIA INTO THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND VIRGINIA
PIEDMONT. FARTHER NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS...MUCH OF THE TIME MAY TURN OUT DRY.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
MARYLAND WHERE CLOUDS AND A COOL NORTHEAST WIND WILL PERSIST TO
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA WHERE WARMER AIR
IS EXPECTED SOUTH AND WEST OF THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT UPPER TROUGH MAY STILL KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IMPROVING...BUT IF
THERE IS CLEARING LATE SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP. LOWS WILL
AGAIN BE IN THE 60S.

NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HOVERING NEAR THE
VA/NC BORDER WILL BE MINIMAL ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
AT THE SFC UNDER A DEVELOPING RIDGE ALOFT. LOW PRESSURE RIDING THE
FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY 12Z SUN...WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEN
EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. DEPENDING ON WHERE EXACTLY
THE FRONT ALIGNS...A STRAY SHOWER OR TSTM COULD MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...SO WILL JUST CONTINUE WITH THE CHC
POPS FOR NOW. BY SUNDAY EVENING...12Z GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
INDICATING RIDGE AXIS ALIGNS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW PROGRESSION
OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO PROGRESS ALONG THE APPALACHIANS.
STILL UNSURE HOW FAR NORTH THE PCPN WILL PROGRESS DURING THE NIGHT
WITH ANY SFC BOUNDARIES LOOKING TO LINGER FURTHER SOUTH...AND NOT
PUSHING NORTH TILL THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WORK WEEK.

WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. 850MB
TEMPS RIGHT AROUND 13-14C...WITH MOST OF THE AREA PUSHING INTO
THE 80S. DEW PTS GENERALLY HOVERING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD BE GENERATED TO RESULT IN
THUNDER...WHEREVER ANY CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP. HOWEVER...LACK OF
SHEAR SHOULD KEEP TSTMS BELOW SVR LVLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW OPENING UP AND FLOW BECOMING ZONAL OVER
MID ATLANTIC REGION AS TROUGH ON NORTHERN TRACK MOVES EASTWARD.
NEXT TROUGH TO AFFECT REGION FRIDAY. AREAS OF WEAK TO MODERATE PVA
PRESENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER REGION WILL SLOWLY FILL THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND BE REPLACED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING.
DYNAMICS SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH
DRYING OVERNIGHT. MORE DEVELOPMENT DUE AS A FRONT FROM THE WEST
CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND CIGS SHOULD DROP TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT. VSBYS
WILL REDUCED TO MVFR LEVELS IN SHOWERS AND AREAS OF BR. LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SUBVFR CIGS MAY BE TOUGH TO ERODE DUE TO A
NORTHEAST FLOW. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS KCHO AND KMRB.
AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUBVFR CIGS/VSBYS PSBL INITIALLY SUN MORNING...WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE DAY. KCHO HAS THE
BEST CHC OF SEEING ANY PCPN SUN-SUN NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT...LESS THAN 8 KTS.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THRU NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH WILL INTENSIFY WINDS UP TO LOW-
END SCA LEVELS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAIN
CONCERN IS LOWERED VISIBILITY IN RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP
UP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE BAY AND
LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE BELOW
SCA CRITERIA SATURDAY NIGHT

WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT FLOW SUN-SUN
NIGHT...KEEPING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS IN PLACE. SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS
SUN NIGHT...THOUGH WITH MINIMAL IMPACT ON VSBY.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THRU NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SOME GUIDANCE IS SHOWING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS INTO THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY/NORTHERN MARYLAND
OVERNIGHT. THOUGHT WAS GIVEN TO THE POTENTIAL OF ISSUING A FLOOD
WATCH...BUT DUE TO A STABLE ATMOSPHERE AT THIS TIME...CURRENT
FEELING IS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL FALL SLOWLY ENOUGH AND BE LIGHT
ENOUGH TO NOT CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOOD CONCERNS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EASTERLY FLOW AROUND A PASSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HELP
ELEVATE WATER LEVELS ALONG TIDAL PORTIONS OF THE POTOMAC AND
MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE HIGH
TIDE WILL BE THE HIGHER OF THE TWO DURING THIS TIME.
THEREFORE...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR SENSITIVE AREAS
ALONG THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM BALTIMORE TO ST MARYS
COUNTY AND ALSO ALONG THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER IN WASHINGTON
DC AND ALEXANDRIA. THE MINOR FLOODING WILL BE MOST LIKELY AROUND
HIGH TIDE SATURDAY MORNING AND CONFINED MAINLY TO SENSITIVE AREAS.

ANOMALIES SHOULD DECREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE WINDS DEVELOPS BEHIND DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
     DCZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MDZ011-014.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MDZ017-018.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VAZ054.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ532-
     533-540>542.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ535-538.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ534-537-
     543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS
NEAR TERM...BJL/RCM
SHORT TERM...SEARS/RCM
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...BJL/CEM/SEARS/RCM
MARINE...BJL/CEM/SEARS/RCM
HYDROLOGY...BJL/RCM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL




000
FXUS61 KRNK 032303
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
703 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WORK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL HANG
UP JUST SOUTH OF US SATURDAY NIGH INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP OUR
AREA IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 655 PM EDT FRIDAY...

RADAR SHOWED A BULK OF THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA AND OVER THE
NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS. WILL CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN THE
WEST SINCE MOST OF THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED OUT OF
THAT REGION. EXPECTING ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING.

FRONT EXTENDED FROM SOUTH OF BLUEFIELD TO JUST NORTH OF DANVILLE.
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WINDS WERE STILL OUT OF THE EAST TO
NORTHEAST. WARMEST TEMPERATURES IN THE COUNTY WARNING AREA WERE IN
THE MID 70S....SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT.

AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVER SE WV INTO THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE OF SW VA TIL 8
AM SATURDAY. MAIN CONCERN IS SLOWER MOVING/REPEATING SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS WAVY FRONT REMAINS IN THE
GENERAL AREA. THINK THE LATEST HIGH-RES MODELS SHOWING BETTER RADAR
TRENDS OF TAKING HEAVIER RAIN TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER 03Z...SO THE
WATCH MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY.

THE MODELS SEEM TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE PATTERN TAKING
WAVY FRONT NORTH OF US SATURDAY MORNING. UNTIL THEN EXPECT SHOWERS
AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...WITH ONE
UPPER WAVE PASSING BY. A WINDOW OF SOMEWHAT DRY WX OCCURS OVERNIGHT
BEFORE THE ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NC MTNS OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SECOND WAVE ONCE IT MOVES EAST OF US MIDDAY
SATURDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A "COLD" FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS. GIVEN THE FLOW
TURNS MORE SW THEN WEST THE POPS WERE FOR MORE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
COVERAGE AND NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN SATURDAY BUT HALF TO 3/4 OF
YOU WILL AT LEAST FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING.

WITH CLOUDS AROUND TONIGHT...AND HIGH MOIST SFC CONDITIONS KEPT LOWS
AS WE HAVE HAD THEM THE PAST FEW NIGHTS LOWER TO MID 60S WEST TO
UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 EAST.

MAY SEE SOME SUNSHINE SATURDAY SO HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN TODAY RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S WEST TO LOWER OR MID
80S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH
AS LOW CENTER MOVES AWAY FROM OUR AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
TO NEAR 70 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.

THE FRONT GET HUNG UP ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH AS CUTOFF LOW TAKES
SHAPE OVER NORTH CAROLINA. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY...BUT THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL HINDER INSTABILITY.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN...BUT GIVEN THAT
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...THIS FURTHER REDUCES CONCERNS OF FLOODING. WITH CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN...LEANED HIGHS TOWARDS THE COOLER MOS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS FROM AROUND
70 DEGREES IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT.

THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE EAST. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL LINGER SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM AROUND 60 DEGREES TO THE UPPER 60S.

THE CLOUDY WET WEATHER CONTINUES MONDAY AS THE REMNANT UPPER LOW
DRIFTS INTO NORTHERN VA. THE BEST COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS...BUT DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION COMPARED TO SUNDAY. WILL HOLD ON TO HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS FOR MONDAY. INSTABILITY APPEARS MARGINAL AND THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL REMAIN THAT OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH TEMPERATURES
MONDAY WILL VARY FROM THE MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 80S IN
THE PIEDMONT.

TAPER OF POPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AS SHOWN ON GFS
AND ECMWF. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER
50S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

ON TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE ACROSS NORTHERN VIRGINIA WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S IN THE
MOUNTAINS T0 THE UPPER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT. COLD FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...WHILE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH
EAST TO THE ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S.

THE FRONT DRIFTS SOUTH WEDNESDAY AND STALLS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL AVERAGE FROM THE MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
THE UPPER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT.  THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR
REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY GOES IS DIFFERENT DEPENDING ON MODEL
CHOICE. THE ECMWF PUSHING THE COLD FRONT FARTHER SOUTH WITH SOME
SUPPORTIVE UPPER TROUGHINESS COMPARED TO GFS.

ONCE AGAIN WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AND RIDE ALONG
THE FRONT KEEPING A GOOD CHANCES OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WILL MODERATE TO AROUND 80 DEGREES IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM
MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT FRIDAY...

STABLE LAYER AIRMASS/WEAK WEDGE EXISTS NORTH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER THE CAROLINAS. ITS VERY SHALLOW SO EXPECT ANY FOG/LOWER CIGS
TO START TO IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MODERATE TO HEAVIER
SHOWERS MOVING IN.

THE TAFS FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE HIGH RES MODELS HRRR/RAP THROUGH
THIS EVENING...THEN MORE TOWARD THE GFSLAMP AFTERWARDS.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...FLYING WEATHER IS NOT IDEAL THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

EXPECT MOSTLY SUB VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WORSENING
AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH IFR OR WORSE POSSIBLE.

BEFORE THIS...TONED DOWN THUNDER THREAT IN THE TAFS AS CLOUD
COVER WILL LIMIT THUNDER THOUGH UPPER DYNAMICS FAVORS SOME
SCATTERED STORMS. FOR THIS KEPT VCTS IN ALL TAFS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR BLF TO HAVE A SMALL WINDOW OF
THUNDERSTORMS PER RADAR TRENDS FROM 19-21Z.

MODELS START TO LIFT THE SHOWERS AWAY FROM US OVERNIGHT WITH
POTENTIAL FOR LOW CIGS/VSBYS AGAIN WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING
INVOF THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA. WINDS SHOULD TURN MORE SW THEN
WEST BY 14-15Z SATURDAY...WITH CIGS RISING TO AT LEAST MVFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT WINDOWS OF OPPORTUNITY FOR VFR CONDITIONS INCREASE AS
WE MOVE INTO MON/TUE. UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL LINGER WEST OF THE
VA/NC COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THEN BEGIN TO DRIFT INTO NORTHERN VA BY MON.
MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE OH VALLEY BY WED.
THIS LEAVES A VERY UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE PERIOD. EXPECT WIDESPREAD LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW
CLOUDS/FOG WITH IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR-VFR OUTSIDE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. AT THIS POINT...TUESDAY APPEARS TO OFFER THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MBS/WP
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...RAB/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 032303
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
703 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WORK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL HANG
UP JUST SOUTH OF US SATURDAY NIGH INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP OUR
AREA IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 655 PM EDT FRIDAY...

RADAR SHOWED A BULK OF THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA AND OVER THE
NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS. WILL CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN THE
WEST SINCE MOST OF THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED OUT OF
THAT REGION. EXPECTING ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING.

FRONT EXTENDED FROM SOUTH OF BLUEFIELD TO JUST NORTH OF DANVILLE.
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WINDS WERE STILL OUT OF THE EAST TO
NORTHEAST. WARMEST TEMPERATURES IN THE COUNTY WARNING AREA WERE IN
THE MID 70S....SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT.

AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVER SE WV INTO THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE OF SW VA TIL 8
AM SATURDAY. MAIN CONCERN IS SLOWER MOVING/REPEATING SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS WAVY FRONT REMAINS IN THE
GENERAL AREA. THINK THE LATEST HIGH-RES MODELS SHOWING BETTER RADAR
TRENDS OF TAKING HEAVIER RAIN TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER 03Z...SO THE
WATCH MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY.

THE MODELS SEEM TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE PATTERN TAKING
WAVY FRONT NORTH OF US SATURDAY MORNING. UNTIL THEN EXPECT SHOWERS
AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...WITH ONE
UPPER WAVE PASSING BY. A WINDOW OF SOMEWHAT DRY WX OCCURS OVERNIGHT
BEFORE THE ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NC MTNS OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SECOND WAVE ONCE IT MOVES EAST OF US MIDDAY
SATURDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A "COLD" FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS. GIVEN THE FLOW
TURNS MORE SW THEN WEST THE POPS WERE FOR MORE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
COVERAGE AND NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN SATURDAY BUT HALF TO 3/4 OF
YOU WILL AT LEAST FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING.

WITH CLOUDS AROUND TONIGHT...AND HIGH MOIST SFC CONDITIONS KEPT LOWS
AS WE HAVE HAD THEM THE PAST FEW NIGHTS LOWER TO MID 60S WEST TO
UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 EAST.

MAY SEE SOME SUNSHINE SATURDAY SO HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN TODAY RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S WEST TO LOWER OR MID
80S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH
AS LOW CENTER MOVES AWAY FROM OUR AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
TO NEAR 70 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.

THE FRONT GET HUNG UP ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH AS CUTOFF LOW TAKES
SHAPE OVER NORTH CAROLINA. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY...BUT THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL HINDER INSTABILITY.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN...BUT GIVEN THAT
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...THIS FURTHER REDUCES CONCERNS OF FLOODING. WITH CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN...LEANED HIGHS TOWARDS THE COOLER MOS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS FROM AROUND
70 DEGREES IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT.

THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE EAST. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL LINGER SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM AROUND 60 DEGREES TO THE UPPER 60S.

THE CLOUDY WET WEATHER CONTINUES MONDAY AS THE REMNANT UPPER LOW
DRIFTS INTO NORTHERN VA. THE BEST COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS...BUT DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION COMPARED TO SUNDAY. WILL HOLD ON TO HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS FOR MONDAY. INSTABILITY APPEARS MARGINAL AND THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL REMAIN THAT OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH TEMPERATURES
MONDAY WILL VARY FROM THE MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 80S IN
THE PIEDMONT.

TAPER OF POPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AS SHOWN ON GFS
AND ECMWF. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER
50S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

ON TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE ACROSS NORTHERN VIRGINIA WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S IN THE
MOUNTAINS T0 THE UPPER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT. COLD FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...WHILE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH
EAST TO THE ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S.

THE FRONT DRIFTS SOUTH WEDNESDAY AND STALLS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL AVERAGE FROM THE MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
THE UPPER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT.  THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR
REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY GOES IS DIFFERENT DEPENDING ON MODEL
CHOICE. THE ECMWF PUSHING THE COLD FRONT FARTHER SOUTH WITH SOME
SUPPORTIVE UPPER TROUGHINESS COMPARED TO GFS.

ONCE AGAIN WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AND RIDE ALONG
THE FRONT KEEPING A GOOD CHANCES OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WILL MODERATE TO AROUND 80 DEGREES IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM
MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT FRIDAY...

STABLE LAYER AIRMASS/WEAK WEDGE EXISTS NORTH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER THE CAROLINAS. ITS VERY SHALLOW SO EXPECT ANY FOG/LOWER CIGS
TO START TO IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MODERATE TO HEAVIER
SHOWERS MOVING IN.

THE TAFS FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE HIGH RES MODELS HRRR/RAP THROUGH
THIS EVENING...THEN MORE TOWARD THE GFSLAMP AFTERWARDS.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...FLYING WEATHER IS NOT IDEAL THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

EXPECT MOSTLY SUB VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WORSENING
AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH IFR OR WORSE POSSIBLE.

BEFORE THIS...TONED DOWN THUNDER THREAT IN THE TAFS AS CLOUD
COVER WILL LIMIT THUNDER THOUGH UPPER DYNAMICS FAVORS SOME
SCATTERED STORMS. FOR THIS KEPT VCTS IN ALL TAFS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR BLF TO HAVE A SMALL WINDOW OF
THUNDERSTORMS PER RADAR TRENDS FROM 19-21Z.

MODELS START TO LIFT THE SHOWERS AWAY FROM US OVERNIGHT WITH
POTENTIAL FOR LOW CIGS/VSBYS AGAIN WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING
INVOF THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA. WINDS SHOULD TURN MORE SW THEN
WEST BY 14-15Z SATURDAY...WITH CIGS RISING TO AT LEAST MVFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT WINDOWS OF OPPORTUNITY FOR VFR CONDITIONS INCREASE AS
WE MOVE INTO MON/TUE. UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL LINGER WEST OF THE
VA/NC COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THEN BEGIN TO DRIFT INTO NORTHERN VA BY MON.
MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE OH VALLEY BY WED.
THIS LEAVES A VERY UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE PERIOD. EXPECT WIDESPREAD LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW
CLOUDS/FOG WITH IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR-VFR OUTSIDE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. AT THIS POINT...TUESDAY APPEARS TO OFFER THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MBS/WP
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...RAB/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 032303
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
703 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WORK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL HANG
UP JUST SOUTH OF US SATURDAY NIGH INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP OUR
AREA IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 655 PM EDT FRIDAY...

RADAR SHOWED A BULK OF THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA AND OVER THE
NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS. WILL CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN THE
WEST SINCE MOST OF THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED OUT OF
THAT REGION. EXPECTING ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING.

FRONT EXTENDED FROM SOUTH OF BLUEFIELD TO JUST NORTH OF DANVILLE.
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WINDS WERE STILL OUT OF THE EAST TO
NORTHEAST. WARMEST TEMPERATURES IN THE COUNTY WARNING AREA WERE IN
THE MID 70S....SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT.

AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVER SE WV INTO THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE OF SW VA TIL 8
AM SATURDAY. MAIN CONCERN IS SLOWER MOVING/REPEATING SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS WAVY FRONT REMAINS IN THE
GENERAL AREA. THINK THE LATEST HIGH-RES MODELS SHOWING BETTER RADAR
TRENDS OF TAKING HEAVIER RAIN TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER 03Z...SO THE
WATCH MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY.

THE MODELS SEEM TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE PATTERN TAKING
WAVY FRONT NORTH OF US SATURDAY MORNING. UNTIL THEN EXPECT SHOWERS
AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...WITH ONE
UPPER WAVE PASSING BY. A WINDOW OF SOMEWHAT DRY WX OCCURS OVERNIGHT
BEFORE THE ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NC MTNS OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SECOND WAVE ONCE IT MOVES EAST OF US MIDDAY
SATURDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A "COLD" FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS. GIVEN THE FLOW
TURNS MORE SW THEN WEST THE POPS WERE FOR MORE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
COVERAGE AND NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN SATURDAY BUT HALF TO 3/4 OF
YOU WILL AT LEAST FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING.

WITH CLOUDS AROUND TONIGHT...AND HIGH MOIST SFC CONDITIONS KEPT LOWS
AS WE HAVE HAD THEM THE PAST FEW NIGHTS LOWER TO MID 60S WEST TO
UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 EAST.

MAY SEE SOME SUNSHINE SATURDAY SO HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN TODAY RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S WEST TO LOWER OR MID
80S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH
AS LOW CENTER MOVES AWAY FROM OUR AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
TO NEAR 70 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.

THE FRONT GET HUNG UP ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH AS CUTOFF LOW TAKES
SHAPE OVER NORTH CAROLINA. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY...BUT THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL HINDER INSTABILITY.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN...BUT GIVEN THAT
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...THIS FURTHER REDUCES CONCERNS OF FLOODING. WITH CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN...LEANED HIGHS TOWARDS THE COOLER MOS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS FROM AROUND
70 DEGREES IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT.

THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE EAST. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL LINGER SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM AROUND 60 DEGREES TO THE UPPER 60S.

THE CLOUDY WET WEATHER CONTINUES MONDAY AS THE REMNANT UPPER LOW
DRIFTS INTO NORTHERN VA. THE BEST COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS...BUT DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION COMPARED TO SUNDAY. WILL HOLD ON TO HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS FOR MONDAY. INSTABILITY APPEARS MARGINAL AND THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL REMAIN THAT OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH TEMPERATURES
MONDAY WILL VARY FROM THE MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 80S IN
THE PIEDMONT.

TAPER OF POPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AS SHOWN ON GFS
AND ECMWF. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER
50S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

ON TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE ACROSS NORTHERN VIRGINIA WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S IN THE
MOUNTAINS T0 THE UPPER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT. COLD FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...WHILE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH
EAST TO THE ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S.

THE FRONT DRIFTS SOUTH WEDNESDAY AND STALLS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL AVERAGE FROM THE MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
THE UPPER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT.  THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR
REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY GOES IS DIFFERENT DEPENDING ON MODEL
CHOICE. THE ECMWF PUSHING THE COLD FRONT FARTHER SOUTH WITH SOME
SUPPORTIVE UPPER TROUGHINESS COMPARED TO GFS.

ONCE AGAIN WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AND RIDE ALONG
THE FRONT KEEPING A GOOD CHANCES OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WILL MODERATE TO AROUND 80 DEGREES IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM
MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT FRIDAY...

STABLE LAYER AIRMASS/WEAK WEDGE EXISTS NORTH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER THE CAROLINAS. ITS VERY SHALLOW SO EXPECT ANY FOG/LOWER CIGS
TO START TO IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MODERATE TO HEAVIER
SHOWERS MOVING IN.

THE TAFS FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE HIGH RES MODELS HRRR/RAP THROUGH
THIS EVENING...THEN MORE TOWARD THE GFSLAMP AFTERWARDS.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...FLYING WEATHER IS NOT IDEAL THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

EXPECT MOSTLY SUB VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WORSENING
AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH IFR OR WORSE POSSIBLE.

BEFORE THIS...TONED DOWN THUNDER THREAT IN THE TAFS AS CLOUD
COVER WILL LIMIT THUNDER THOUGH UPPER DYNAMICS FAVORS SOME
SCATTERED STORMS. FOR THIS KEPT VCTS IN ALL TAFS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR BLF TO HAVE A SMALL WINDOW OF
THUNDERSTORMS PER RADAR TRENDS FROM 19-21Z.

MODELS START TO LIFT THE SHOWERS AWAY FROM US OVERNIGHT WITH
POTENTIAL FOR LOW CIGS/VSBYS AGAIN WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING
INVOF THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA. WINDS SHOULD TURN MORE SW THEN
WEST BY 14-15Z SATURDAY...WITH CIGS RISING TO AT LEAST MVFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT WINDOWS OF OPPORTUNITY FOR VFR CONDITIONS INCREASE AS
WE MOVE INTO MON/TUE. UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL LINGER WEST OF THE
VA/NC COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THEN BEGIN TO DRIFT INTO NORTHERN VA BY MON.
MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE OH VALLEY BY WED.
THIS LEAVES A VERY UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE PERIOD. EXPECT WIDESPREAD LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW
CLOUDS/FOG WITH IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR-VFR OUTSIDE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. AT THIS POINT...TUESDAY APPEARS TO OFFER THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MBS/WP
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...RAB/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 032303
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
703 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WORK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL HANG
UP JUST SOUTH OF US SATURDAY NIGH INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP OUR
AREA IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 655 PM EDT FRIDAY...

RADAR SHOWED A BULK OF THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA AND OVER THE
NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS. WILL CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN THE
WEST SINCE MOST OF THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED OUT OF
THAT REGION. EXPECTING ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING.

FRONT EXTENDED FROM SOUTH OF BLUEFIELD TO JUST NORTH OF DANVILLE.
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WINDS WERE STILL OUT OF THE EAST TO
NORTHEAST. WARMEST TEMPERATURES IN THE COUNTY WARNING AREA WERE IN
THE MID 70S....SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT.

AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVER SE WV INTO THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE OF SW VA TIL 8
AM SATURDAY. MAIN CONCERN IS SLOWER MOVING/REPEATING SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS WAVY FRONT REMAINS IN THE
GENERAL AREA. THINK THE LATEST HIGH-RES MODELS SHOWING BETTER RADAR
TRENDS OF TAKING HEAVIER RAIN TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER 03Z...SO THE
WATCH MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY.

THE MODELS SEEM TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE PATTERN TAKING
WAVY FRONT NORTH OF US SATURDAY MORNING. UNTIL THEN EXPECT SHOWERS
AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...WITH ONE
UPPER WAVE PASSING BY. A WINDOW OF SOMEWHAT DRY WX OCCURS OVERNIGHT
BEFORE THE ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NC MTNS OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SECOND WAVE ONCE IT MOVES EAST OF US MIDDAY
SATURDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A "COLD" FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS. GIVEN THE FLOW
TURNS MORE SW THEN WEST THE POPS WERE FOR MORE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
COVERAGE AND NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN SATURDAY BUT HALF TO 3/4 OF
YOU WILL AT LEAST FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING.

WITH CLOUDS AROUND TONIGHT...AND HIGH MOIST SFC CONDITIONS KEPT LOWS
AS WE HAVE HAD THEM THE PAST FEW NIGHTS LOWER TO MID 60S WEST TO
UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 EAST.

MAY SEE SOME SUNSHINE SATURDAY SO HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN TODAY RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S WEST TO LOWER OR MID
80S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH
AS LOW CENTER MOVES AWAY FROM OUR AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
TO NEAR 70 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.

THE FRONT GET HUNG UP ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH AS CUTOFF LOW TAKES
SHAPE OVER NORTH CAROLINA. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY...BUT THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL HINDER INSTABILITY.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN...BUT GIVEN THAT
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...THIS FURTHER REDUCES CONCERNS OF FLOODING. WITH CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN...LEANED HIGHS TOWARDS THE COOLER MOS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS FROM AROUND
70 DEGREES IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT.

THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE EAST. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL LINGER SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM AROUND 60 DEGREES TO THE UPPER 60S.

THE CLOUDY WET WEATHER CONTINUES MONDAY AS THE REMNANT UPPER LOW
DRIFTS INTO NORTHERN VA. THE BEST COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS...BUT DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION COMPARED TO SUNDAY. WILL HOLD ON TO HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS FOR MONDAY. INSTABILITY APPEARS MARGINAL AND THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL REMAIN THAT OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH TEMPERATURES
MONDAY WILL VARY FROM THE MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 80S IN
THE PIEDMONT.

TAPER OF POPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AS SHOWN ON GFS
AND ECMWF. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER
50S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

ON TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE ACROSS NORTHERN VIRGINIA WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S IN THE
MOUNTAINS T0 THE UPPER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT. COLD FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...WHILE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH
EAST TO THE ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S.

THE FRONT DRIFTS SOUTH WEDNESDAY AND STALLS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL AVERAGE FROM THE MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
THE UPPER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT.  THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR
REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY GOES IS DIFFERENT DEPENDING ON MODEL
CHOICE. THE ECMWF PUSHING THE COLD FRONT FARTHER SOUTH WITH SOME
SUPPORTIVE UPPER TROUGHINESS COMPARED TO GFS.

ONCE AGAIN WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AND RIDE ALONG
THE FRONT KEEPING A GOOD CHANCES OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WILL MODERATE TO AROUND 80 DEGREES IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM
MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT FRIDAY...

STABLE LAYER AIRMASS/WEAK WEDGE EXISTS NORTH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER THE CAROLINAS. ITS VERY SHALLOW SO EXPECT ANY FOG/LOWER CIGS
TO START TO IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MODERATE TO HEAVIER
SHOWERS MOVING IN.

THE TAFS FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE HIGH RES MODELS HRRR/RAP THROUGH
THIS EVENING...THEN MORE TOWARD THE GFSLAMP AFTERWARDS.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...FLYING WEATHER IS NOT IDEAL THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

EXPECT MOSTLY SUB VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WORSENING
AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH IFR OR WORSE POSSIBLE.

BEFORE THIS...TONED DOWN THUNDER THREAT IN THE TAFS AS CLOUD
COVER WILL LIMIT THUNDER THOUGH UPPER DYNAMICS FAVORS SOME
SCATTERED STORMS. FOR THIS KEPT VCTS IN ALL TAFS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR BLF TO HAVE A SMALL WINDOW OF
THUNDERSTORMS PER RADAR TRENDS FROM 19-21Z.

MODELS START TO LIFT THE SHOWERS AWAY FROM US OVERNIGHT WITH
POTENTIAL FOR LOW CIGS/VSBYS AGAIN WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING
INVOF THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA. WINDS SHOULD TURN MORE SW THEN
WEST BY 14-15Z SATURDAY...WITH CIGS RISING TO AT LEAST MVFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT WINDOWS OF OPPORTUNITY FOR VFR CONDITIONS INCREASE AS
WE MOVE INTO MON/TUE. UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL LINGER WEST OF THE
VA/NC COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THEN BEGIN TO DRIFT INTO NORTHERN VA BY MON.
MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE OH VALLEY BY WED.
THIS LEAVES A VERY UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE PERIOD. EXPECT WIDESPREAD LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW
CLOUDS/FOG WITH IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR-VFR OUTSIDE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. AT THIS POINT...TUESDAY APPEARS TO OFFER THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MBS/WP
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...RAB/WP




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 032038
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
438 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WITH THE CHANCES FOR RAIN EACH DAY. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH
OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD
MOVE INTO THE THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVED SOUTH OF THE ARE YESTERDAY IS
BEGINNING TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING
INTO SRN OHIO ALONG WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS
STILL IN NORTHERN NC THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOWERS AND SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS
AND THE SFC LOW SLIDES INTO WRN VA AND LIFTS INTO CENTRAL MD BY
MORNING. EXPECT BRIEF DOWNPOURS WITH THESE SHOWERS WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAIN ALONG THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES. BASIN AVERAGE RAINS OF
0.25 TO 0.50 ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS SHOULD AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THE SFC LOW WILL BE EXITING OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY AND WILL
PUSH OFF THE COAST AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH PULLS OFF THE COAST.
THIS WILL PULL THE FRONT BACK TOWARD THE SOUTH...BUT WITHOUT A
STRONG NW PUSH...THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE AND THIS WILL
ALLOW THE SET UP FOR MORE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE SRN
PORTION OF THE AREA. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS SRN VA AND
NE NC FOR THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AGAIN BASIN
AVERAGES IN THE 0.25 TO 0.50 RANGE ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH POSSIBLE. FOR TEMPERATURES...FURTHER
TO THE NORTH AND WEST NEAR THE FRONT READINGS SHOULD BE HELD DOWN
BY CLOUDS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...BUT FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ARE POSSIBLE.



&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE HAVING SOME INCONSISTENCIES WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THE UPPER LOW FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE NAM HAS BEEN FURTHER
WEST WITH THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW. THIS SEEMS TO BE THE
OUTLIER SO HAVE GONE MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVING THE
UPPER LOW DEVELOP OVER ERN KY AND LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE MORE CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

ON SAT NIGHT THE FRONT SHOULD STALL NR THE VA/NC BORDER AND COULD
STILL PRODUCES SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. NORTH OF THE
FRONT ENOUGH DRY AIR SLIDES IN AND WITH LITTLE FORCING SHOULD SEE
DRY WX. AS A RESULT FOR TEMPS OVERNIGHT WENT A LITTLE COOLER TO
THE NORTH IN THE MID 60S WHILE TO THE SOUTH KEPT READINGS IN THE
U60S TO L70S.

ON SUNDAY WITH THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY AND AGAIN BEGINNING TO
LIFT NORTHWARD AS THE UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER ERN KY...HAVE
INCREASED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND THEN BACK INTO
THE PIEDMONT WITH THE DEVELOPING SERLY FLOW. ONLY THE LOWER MD ERN
SHORE AREA HAS THE CHANCE FOR A DRY DAY. TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S.

THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BEGINS TO DIMINISH SOME SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE FORCING IS WEAK AND WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY
EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO WANE A BIT SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT AS THE UPPER
LOW BEGINS TO EJECT NEWD AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING
TROUGH/FRONT...SHOULD SEE MORE SHOWERS DEVELOP AS THE LOW EXITS.
FOR TEMPS...LEANED WARM SUN NIGHT WITH CLOUDS AROUND...KEEPING THE
U60S TO L70 VALUES WITH HIGHS ON MON IN THE MID 80S...ASSUMING
MORE CLOUDS AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY CONTINUED LOW AMPLITUDE
UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH GRADUAL RE-REEMERGENCE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT THAT WITH OCCASIONAL UPPER
DISTURBANCES/PERTURBATIONS PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC,
AS WEAK SFC TROUGH PERSISTS IN PLACE OVERHEAD, MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHC
RANGE BY DAY (NEAR CLIMO NORMS), W/ SLIGHT CHC OR LESS OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST PW VALUES WILL ALSO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD...LINGERING AROUND +2 S.D. ABOVE NORMAL. ACCORDINGLY, WE`LL
NEED TO BE ON GUARD FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, WITH THIS INCREASED HUMIDITY/DEWPOINTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD, CONTINUED TO RIDE ON THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE WITH
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...GENERALLY FAVORING A TYPICAL
MID-JULY WARM/MODERATELY HUMID SET UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 INLAND,
WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS 65 TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FNTL BNDRY WILL RMN JUST S OF THE VA/NC BORDER INTO THIS AFTN.
MDLS TRACK SFC LO PRES FM THE OH/TN VLYS THROUGH THE NRN MDATLC
RGN FM LT TDA THROUGH SAT. THE FNTL BNDRY TO THE S (NOW) RETURNS N
BEGINNING LT TNGT...CONTG INTO FRI. SHRAS/PSBL TSTMS XPCD BY LT
THIS AFTN...CONTG INTO SAT. A SECOND ADDITIONAL WAVE OF PCPN PSBL
SAT NGT/SUN AS FNTL BNDRY SINKS S AGN...AND WK SFC LO PRES TRACKS
THROUGH NC. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/DURATION OF ANY IFR CONDS LO ATTM
INTO SUN (AND LIKELY TO BE CONFINED TO PDS OF PCPN).

&&

.MARINE...
UNSETTLED WX CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS OVER THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LATEST OBS REFLECT E-SE FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY LYING JUST TO OUR SOUTH THIS
AFTN. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING
(BRIEF HVY RAIN POSSIBLE IN ANY TSTORMS THIS EVENING). RESULTANT
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN WINDS INCREASING AND VEERING
AROUND TO THE S-SE TONIGHT, WITH A SMALL 3-6 HOUR WINDOW OF MARGINAL
SCA CONDS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER BAY TOWARDS THE MOUTH OF CHES BAY.
HAVE HOSTED SCA IN THE CHES BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT FOR WINDS
TO LOW END SCA FOR A BRIEF PERIOD TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.
THE MEANDERING FRONT WILL DROP BACK SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING
W/SFC LOW EXITING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST SOUTH OF CAPE COD. WAVES
AVG 1-2 FT...SEAS 2-4FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ632-634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS
NEAR TERM...ESS
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...ALB/DAP
MARINE...MAM



000
FXUS61 KRNK 031929
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
329 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WORK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL HANG
UP JUST SOUTH OF US SATURDAY NIGH INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP OUR
AREA IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVER SE WV INTO THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE OF SW VA TIL 8
AM SATURDAY. MAIN CONCERN IS SLOWER MOVING/REPEATING SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS WAVY FRONT REMAINS IN THE
GENERAL AREA. THINK THE LATEST HIGH-RES MODELS SHOWING BETTER RADAR
TRENDS OF TAKING HEAVIER RAIN TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER 03Z...SO THE
WATCH MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY.

THE MODELS SEEM TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE PATTERN TAKING
WAVY FRONT NORTH OF US SATURDAY MORNING. UNTIL THEN EXPECT SHOWERS
AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...WITH ONE
UPPER WAVE PASSING BY. A WINDOW OF SOMEWHAT DRY WX OCCURS OVERNIGHT
BEFORE THE ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NC MTNS OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SECOND WAVE ONCE IT MOVES EAST OF US MIDDAY
SATURDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A "COLD" FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS. GIVEN THE FLOW
TURNS MORE SW THEN WEST THE POPS WERE FOR MORE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
COVERAGE AND NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN SATURDAY BUT HALF TO 3/4 OF
YOU WILL AT LEAST FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING.

WITH CLOUDS AROUND TONIGHT...AND HIGH MOIST SFC CONDITIONS KEPT LOWS
AS WE HAVE HAD THEM THE PAST FEW NIGHTS LOWER TO MID 60S WEST TO
UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 EAST.

MAY SEE SOME SUNSHINE SATURDAY SO HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN TODAY RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S WEST TO LOWER OR MID
80S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH
AS LOW CENTER MOVES AWAY FROM OUR AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
TO NEAR 70 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.

THE FRONT GET HUNG UP ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH AS CUTOFF LOW TAKES
SHAPE OVER NORTH CAROLINA. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY...BUT THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL HINDER INSTABILITY.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN...BUT GIVEN THAT
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...THIS FURTHER REDUCES CONCERNS OF FLOODING. WITH CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN...LEANED HIGHS TOWARDS THE COOLER MOS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS FROM AROUND
70 DEGREES IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT.

THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE EAST. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL LINGER SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM AROUND 60 DEGREES TO THE UPPER 60S.

THE CLOUDY WET WEATHER CONTINUES MONDAY AS THE REMNANT UPPER LOW
DRIFTS INTO NORTHERN VA. THE BEST COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS...BUT DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION COMPARED TO SUNDAY. WILL HOLD ON TO HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS FOR MONDAY. INSTABILITY APPEARS MARGINAL AND THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL REMAIN THAT OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH TEMPERATURES
MONDAY WILL VARY FROM THE MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 80S IN
THE PIEDMONT.

TAPER OF POPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AS SHOWN ON GFS
AND ECMWF. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER
50S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

ON TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE ACROSS NORTHERN VIRGINIA WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S IN THE
MOUNTAINS T0 THE UPPER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT. COLD FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...WHILE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH
EAST TO THE ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S.

THE FRONT DRIFTS SOUTH WEDNESDAY AND STALLS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL AVERAGE FROM THE MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
THE UPPER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT.  THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR
REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY GOES IS DIFFERENT DEPENDING ON MODEL
CHOICE. THE ECMWF PUSHING THE COLD FRONT FARTHER SOUTH WITH SOME
SUPPORTIVE UPPER TROUGHINESS COMPARED TO GFS.

ONCE AGAIN WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AND RIDE ALONG
THE FRONT KEEPING A GOOD CHANCES OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WILL MODERATE TO AROUND 80 DEGREES IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM
MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT FRIDAY...

STABLE LAYER AIRMASS/WEAK WEDGE EXISTS NORTH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER THE CAROLINAS. ITS VERY SHALLOW SO EXPECT ANY FOG/LOWER CIGS
TO START TO IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MODERATE TO HEAVIER
SHOWERS MOVING IN.

THE TAFS FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE HIGH RES MODELS HRRR/RAP THROUGH
THIS EVENING...THEN MORE TOWARD THE GFSLAMP AFTERWARDS.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...FLYING WEATHER IS NOT IDEAL THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

EXPECT MOSTLY SUB VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WORSENING
AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH IFR OR WORSE POSSIBLE.

BEFORE THIS...TONED DOWN THUNDER THREAT IN THE TAFS AS CLOUD
COVER WILL LIMIT THUNDER THOUGH UPPER DYNAMICS FAVORS SOME
SCATTERED STORMS. FOR THIS KEPT VCTS IN ALL TAFS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR BLF TO HAVE A SMALL WINDOW OF
THUNDERSTORMS PER RADAR TRENDS FROM 19-21Z.

MODELS START TO LIFT THE SHOWERS AWAY FROM US OVERNIGHT WITH
POTENTIAL FOR LOW CIGS/VSBYS AGAIN WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING
INVOF THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA. WINDS SHOULD TURN MORE SW THEN
WEST BY 14-15Z SATURDAY...WITH CIGS RISING TO AT LEAST MVFR.




EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT WINDOWS OF OPPORTUNITY FOR VFR CONDITIONS INCREASE AS
WE MOVE INTO MON/TUE. UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL LINGER WEST OF THE
VA/NC COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THEN BEGIN TO DRIFT INTO NORTHERN VA BY MON.
MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE OH VALLEY BY WED.
THIS LEAVES A VERY UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE PERIOD. EXPECT WIDESPREAD LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW
CLOUDS/FOG WITH IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR-VFR OUTSIDE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. AT THIS POINT...TUESDAY APPEARS TO OFFER THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR VAZ007-009>012.
NC...NONE.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR WVZ042>044-507-
     508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...RAB/WP



000
FXUS61 KRNK 031929
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
329 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WORK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL HANG
UP JUST SOUTH OF US SATURDAY NIGH INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP OUR
AREA IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVER SE WV INTO THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE OF SW VA TIL 8
AM SATURDAY. MAIN CONCERN IS SLOWER MOVING/REPEATING SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS WAVY FRONT REMAINS IN THE
GENERAL AREA. THINK THE LATEST HIGH-RES MODELS SHOWING BETTER RADAR
TRENDS OF TAKING HEAVIER RAIN TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER 03Z...SO THE
WATCH MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY.

THE MODELS SEEM TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE PATTERN TAKING
WAVY FRONT NORTH OF US SATURDAY MORNING. UNTIL THEN EXPECT SHOWERS
AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...WITH ONE
UPPER WAVE PASSING BY. A WINDOW OF SOMEWHAT DRY WX OCCURS OVERNIGHT
BEFORE THE ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NC MTNS OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SECOND WAVE ONCE IT MOVES EAST OF US MIDDAY
SATURDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A "COLD" FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS. GIVEN THE FLOW
TURNS MORE SW THEN WEST THE POPS WERE FOR MORE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
COVERAGE AND NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN SATURDAY BUT HALF TO 3/4 OF
YOU WILL AT LEAST FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING.

WITH CLOUDS AROUND TONIGHT...AND HIGH MOIST SFC CONDITIONS KEPT LOWS
AS WE HAVE HAD THEM THE PAST FEW NIGHTS LOWER TO MID 60S WEST TO
UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 EAST.

MAY SEE SOME SUNSHINE SATURDAY SO HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN TODAY RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S WEST TO LOWER OR MID
80S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH
AS LOW CENTER MOVES AWAY FROM OUR AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
TO NEAR 70 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.

THE FRONT GET HUNG UP ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH AS CUTOFF LOW TAKES
SHAPE OVER NORTH CAROLINA. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY...BUT THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL HINDER INSTABILITY.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN...BUT GIVEN THAT
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...THIS FURTHER REDUCES CONCERNS OF FLOODING. WITH CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN...LEANED HIGHS TOWARDS THE COOLER MOS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS FROM AROUND
70 DEGREES IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT.

THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE EAST. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL LINGER SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM AROUND 60 DEGREES TO THE UPPER 60S.

THE CLOUDY WET WEATHER CONTINUES MONDAY AS THE REMNANT UPPER LOW
DRIFTS INTO NORTHERN VA. THE BEST COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS...BUT DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION COMPARED TO SUNDAY. WILL HOLD ON TO HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS FOR MONDAY. INSTABILITY APPEARS MARGINAL AND THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL REMAIN THAT OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH TEMPERATURES
MONDAY WILL VARY FROM THE MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 80S IN
THE PIEDMONT.

TAPER OF POPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AS SHOWN ON GFS
AND ECMWF. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER
50S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

ON TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE ACROSS NORTHERN VIRGINIA WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S IN THE
MOUNTAINS T0 THE UPPER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT. COLD FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...WHILE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH
EAST TO THE ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S.

THE FRONT DRIFTS SOUTH WEDNESDAY AND STALLS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL AVERAGE FROM THE MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
THE UPPER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT.  THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR
REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY GOES IS DIFFERENT DEPENDING ON MODEL
CHOICE. THE ECMWF PUSHING THE COLD FRONT FARTHER SOUTH WITH SOME
SUPPORTIVE UPPER TROUGHINESS COMPARED TO GFS.

ONCE AGAIN WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AND RIDE ALONG
THE FRONT KEEPING A GOOD CHANCES OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WILL MODERATE TO AROUND 80 DEGREES IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM
MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT FRIDAY...

STABLE LAYER AIRMASS/WEAK WEDGE EXISTS NORTH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER THE CAROLINAS. ITS VERY SHALLOW SO EXPECT ANY FOG/LOWER CIGS
TO START TO IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MODERATE TO HEAVIER
SHOWERS MOVING IN.

THE TAFS FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE HIGH RES MODELS HRRR/RAP THROUGH
THIS EVENING...THEN MORE TOWARD THE GFSLAMP AFTERWARDS.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...FLYING WEATHER IS NOT IDEAL THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

EXPECT MOSTLY SUB VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WORSENING
AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH IFR OR WORSE POSSIBLE.

BEFORE THIS...TONED DOWN THUNDER THREAT IN THE TAFS AS CLOUD
COVER WILL LIMIT THUNDER THOUGH UPPER DYNAMICS FAVORS SOME
SCATTERED STORMS. FOR THIS KEPT VCTS IN ALL TAFS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR BLF TO HAVE A SMALL WINDOW OF
THUNDERSTORMS PER RADAR TRENDS FROM 19-21Z.

MODELS START TO LIFT THE SHOWERS AWAY FROM US OVERNIGHT WITH
POTENTIAL FOR LOW CIGS/VSBYS AGAIN WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING
INVOF THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA. WINDS SHOULD TURN MORE SW THEN
WEST BY 14-15Z SATURDAY...WITH CIGS RISING TO AT LEAST MVFR.




EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT WINDOWS OF OPPORTUNITY FOR VFR CONDITIONS INCREASE AS
WE MOVE INTO MON/TUE. UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL LINGER WEST OF THE
VA/NC COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THEN BEGIN TO DRIFT INTO NORTHERN VA BY MON.
MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE OH VALLEY BY WED.
THIS LEAVES A VERY UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE PERIOD. EXPECT WIDESPREAD LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW
CLOUDS/FOG WITH IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR-VFR OUTSIDE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. AT THIS POINT...TUESDAY APPEARS TO OFFER THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR VAZ007-009>012.
NC...NONE.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR WVZ042>044-507-
     508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...RAB/WP



000
FXUS61 KRNK 031929
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
329 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WORK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL HANG
UP JUST SOUTH OF US SATURDAY NIGH INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP OUR
AREA IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVER SE WV INTO THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE OF SW VA TIL 8
AM SATURDAY. MAIN CONCERN IS SLOWER MOVING/REPEATING SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS WAVY FRONT REMAINS IN THE
GENERAL AREA. THINK THE LATEST HIGH-RES MODELS SHOWING BETTER RADAR
TRENDS OF TAKING HEAVIER RAIN TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER 03Z...SO THE
WATCH MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY.

THE MODELS SEEM TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE PATTERN TAKING
WAVY FRONT NORTH OF US SATURDAY MORNING. UNTIL THEN EXPECT SHOWERS
AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...WITH ONE
UPPER WAVE PASSING BY. A WINDOW OF SOMEWHAT DRY WX OCCURS OVERNIGHT
BEFORE THE ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NC MTNS OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SECOND WAVE ONCE IT MOVES EAST OF US MIDDAY
SATURDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A "COLD" FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS. GIVEN THE FLOW
TURNS MORE SW THEN WEST THE POPS WERE FOR MORE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
COVERAGE AND NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN SATURDAY BUT HALF TO 3/4 OF
YOU WILL AT LEAST FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING.

WITH CLOUDS AROUND TONIGHT...AND HIGH MOIST SFC CONDITIONS KEPT LOWS
AS WE HAVE HAD THEM THE PAST FEW NIGHTS LOWER TO MID 60S WEST TO
UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 EAST.

MAY SEE SOME SUNSHINE SATURDAY SO HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN TODAY RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S WEST TO LOWER OR MID
80S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH
AS LOW CENTER MOVES AWAY FROM OUR AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
TO NEAR 70 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.

THE FRONT GET HUNG UP ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH AS CUTOFF LOW TAKES
SHAPE OVER NORTH CAROLINA. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY...BUT THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL HINDER INSTABILITY.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN...BUT GIVEN THAT
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...THIS FURTHER REDUCES CONCERNS OF FLOODING. WITH CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN...LEANED HIGHS TOWARDS THE COOLER MOS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS FROM AROUND
70 DEGREES IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT.

THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE EAST. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL LINGER SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM AROUND 60 DEGREES TO THE UPPER 60S.

THE CLOUDY WET WEATHER CONTINUES MONDAY AS THE REMNANT UPPER LOW
DRIFTS INTO NORTHERN VA. THE BEST COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS...BUT DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION COMPARED TO SUNDAY. WILL HOLD ON TO HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS FOR MONDAY. INSTABILITY APPEARS MARGINAL AND THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL REMAIN THAT OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH TEMPERATURES
MONDAY WILL VARY FROM THE MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 80S IN
THE PIEDMONT.

TAPER OF POPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AS SHOWN ON GFS
AND ECMWF. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER
50S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

ON TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE ACROSS NORTHERN VIRGINIA WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S IN THE
MOUNTAINS T0 THE UPPER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT. COLD FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...WHILE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH
EAST TO THE ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S.

THE FRONT DRIFTS SOUTH WEDNESDAY AND STALLS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL AVERAGE FROM THE MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
THE UPPER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT.  THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR
REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY GOES IS DIFFERENT DEPENDING ON MODEL
CHOICE. THE ECMWF PUSHING THE COLD FRONT FARTHER SOUTH WITH SOME
SUPPORTIVE UPPER TROUGHINESS COMPARED TO GFS.

ONCE AGAIN WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AND RIDE ALONG
THE FRONT KEEPING A GOOD CHANCES OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WILL MODERATE TO AROUND 80 DEGREES IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM
MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT FRIDAY...

STABLE LAYER AIRMASS/WEAK WEDGE EXISTS NORTH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER THE CAROLINAS. ITS VERY SHALLOW SO EXPECT ANY FOG/LOWER CIGS
TO START TO IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MODERATE TO HEAVIER
SHOWERS MOVING IN.

THE TAFS FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE HIGH RES MODELS HRRR/RAP THROUGH
THIS EVENING...THEN MORE TOWARD THE GFSLAMP AFTERWARDS.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...FLYING WEATHER IS NOT IDEAL THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

EXPECT MOSTLY SUB VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WORSENING
AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH IFR OR WORSE POSSIBLE.

BEFORE THIS...TONED DOWN THUNDER THREAT IN THE TAFS AS CLOUD
COVER WILL LIMIT THUNDER THOUGH UPPER DYNAMICS FAVORS SOME
SCATTERED STORMS. FOR THIS KEPT VCTS IN ALL TAFS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR BLF TO HAVE A SMALL WINDOW OF
THUNDERSTORMS PER RADAR TRENDS FROM 19-21Z.

MODELS START TO LIFT THE SHOWERS AWAY FROM US OVERNIGHT WITH
POTENTIAL FOR LOW CIGS/VSBYS AGAIN WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING
INVOF THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA. WINDS SHOULD TURN MORE SW THEN
WEST BY 14-15Z SATURDAY...WITH CIGS RISING TO AT LEAST MVFR.




EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT WINDOWS OF OPPORTUNITY FOR VFR CONDITIONS INCREASE AS
WE MOVE INTO MON/TUE. UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL LINGER WEST OF THE
VA/NC COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THEN BEGIN TO DRIFT INTO NORTHERN VA BY MON.
MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE OH VALLEY BY WED.
THIS LEAVES A VERY UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE PERIOD. EXPECT WIDESPREAD LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW
CLOUDS/FOG WITH IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR-VFR OUTSIDE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. AT THIS POINT...TUESDAY APPEARS TO OFFER THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR VAZ007-009>012.
NC...NONE.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR WVZ042>044-507-
     508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...RAB/WP




000
FXUS61 KLWX 031908
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
308 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE EAST-NORTHEAST UP THE OHIO VALLEY
TONIGHT. A SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER VIRGINIA AND HEAD
EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY AND LINGER IN THE AREA FOR A FEW DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...A STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG THE BORDERS OF
NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA...STRETCHING WEST ALONG THE BORDERS OF
KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE...AND THE BORDERS OF MISSOURI AND
ARKANSAS...FINALLY TERMINATING IN OKLAHOMA. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
WAS LOCATED ALONG THIS FRONT NEAR THE KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE
BORDER...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATED THE GREAT LAKES.

MOST GUIDANCE DEPICTS THIS LOW AS MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST UP THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT...WITH A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING OVER VIRGINIA AND
HEADING EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. THIS IS
CERTAINLY MORE OF A WINTER-LIKE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THAN WHAT YOU
WOULD EXPECT TO SEE IN JULY...BUT THE RESULTS WILL BE FAIRLY
SIMILAR...WITH SOME WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT INDUCED RAIN
MOVING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN PERHAPS DRY SLOT WITH
LINGERING DRIZZLE DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. AS THE
UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
AREA LATER SATURDAY...FORCING WILL LIKELY ALLOW SHOWERS TO POP
BACK UP ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN THE MUCH MORE HUMID AIR MASS
COMPARED TO WINTER...AND THE UNUSUAL DYNAMICS FOR JULY...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...BUT ENOUGH STABILITY APPEARS
PRESENT TO PREVENT ANY SORT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FROM
DEVELOPING. THERE ARE HINTS IN SOME GUIDANCE OF A SIGNIFICANT
UPSLOPE FLOW PRODUCING EXCESSIVE RAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AND SOME MODELING SOLUTIONS IN
FACT INCLUDE THESE AREAS IN THE DRY SLOT LATER ON CAUSING THEM TO
MISS OUT. THEREFORE...DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD WATCHES
UNTIL THERE IS A BETTER SIGNAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAIN. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 60S IN MOST AREAS...WHILE HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL STAY MOSTLY IN THE 70S THANKS TO
CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT UPPER
TROUGH MAY STILL KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE IMPROVING...BUT IF THERE IS CLEARING LATE SOME
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP. LOWS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 60S.

NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HOVERING NEAR THE
VA/NC BORDER WILL BE MINIMAL ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
AT THE SFC UNDER A DEVELOPING RIDGE ALOFT. LOW PRESSURE RIDING THE
FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY 12Z SUN...WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEN
EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. DEPENDING ON WHERE EXACTLY
THE FRONT ALIGNS...A STRAY SHOWER OR TSTM COULD MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...SO WILL JUST CONTINUE WITH THE CHC
POPS FOR NOW. BY SUNDAY EVENING...12Z GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
INDICATING RIDGE AXIS ALIGNS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW PROGRESSION
OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO PROGRESS ALONG THE APPALACHIANS.
STILL UNSURE HOW FAR NORTH THE PCPN WILL PROGRESS DURING THE NIGHT
WITH ANY SFC BOUNDARIES LOOKING TO LINGER FURTHER SOUTH...AND NOT
PUSHING NORTH TILL THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WORK WEEK.

WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. 850MB
TEMPS RIGHT AROUND 13-14C...WITH MOST OF THE AREA PUSHING INTO
THE 80S. DEW PTS GENERALLY HOVERING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD BE GENERATED TO RESULT IN
THUNDER...WHEREVER ANY CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP. HOWEVER...LACK OF
SHEAR SHOULD KEEP TSTMS BELOW SVR LVLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW OPENING UP AND FLOW BECOMING ZONAL OVER
MID ATLANTIC REGION AS TROUGH ON NORTHERN TRACK MOVES EASTWARD.
NEXT TROUGH TO AFFECT REGION FRIDAY. AREAS OF WEAK TO MODERATE PVA
PRESENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER REGION WILL SLOWLY FILL THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND BE REPLACED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING.
DYNAMICS SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH
DRYING OVERNIGHT. MORE DEVELOPMENT DUE AS A FRONT FROM THE WEST
CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STORM SYSTEM MOVING IN WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WITH
CIGS AND VIS LOWERING TO IFR AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE
LOW BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
AND AGAIN SATURDAY...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE NO HIGHER THAN
ISOLATED. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE
NEXT 36 HOURS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED CIGS/VIS IF PATCHY FOG
FORMS IN THE WAKE OF THE RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT.

MVFR CIGS PSBL INITIALLY SUN MORNING...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING
TO VFR AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE DAY. KCHO HAS THE BEST CHC OF
SEEING ANY PCPN SUN-SUN NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...LESS THAN 8
KTS.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THRU NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH WILL INTENSIFY WINDS UP TO LOW-
END SCA LEVELS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAIN
CONCERN IS LOWERED VISIBILITY IN RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THUNDER IS POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT.

WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT FLOW SUN-SUN
NIGHT...KEEPING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS IN PLACE. SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS
SUN NIGHT...THOUGH WITH MINIMAL IMPACT ON VSBY.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THRU NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SOME GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS. THOUGHT WAS GIVEN TO THE POTENTIAL TO ISSUE A FLOOD
WATCH...BUT AT THIS TIME FEEL PRECIPITATION WILL FALL SLOWLY
ENOUGH AND BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO NOT CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOOD
CONCERNS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EASTERLY FLOW AROUND A PASSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HELP
ELEVATE WATER LEVELS ALONG TIDAL PORTIONS OF THE POTOMAC AND THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY SHORE. AT THIS TIME THINK LEVELS WILL STAY JUST
BELOW MINOR FLOOD...BUT COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WOULD BE
NECESSARY WITH ONLY A MODEST INCREASE IN PROJECTED WATER LEVELS.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ534-536-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS
NEAR TERM...RCM
SHORT TERM...SEARS/RCM
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...CEM/SEARS/RCM
MARINE...CEM/SEARS/RCM
HYDROLOGY...RCM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RCM




000
FXUS61 KLWX 031908
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
308 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE EAST-NORTHEAST UP THE OHIO VALLEY
TONIGHT. A SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER VIRGINIA AND HEAD
EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY AND LINGER IN THE AREA FOR A FEW DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...A STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG THE BORDERS OF
NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA...STRETCHING WEST ALONG THE BORDERS OF
KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE...AND THE BORDERS OF MISSOURI AND
ARKANSAS...FINALLY TERMINATING IN OKLAHOMA. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
WAS LOCATED ALONG THIS FRONT NEAR THE KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE
BORDER...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATED THE GREAT LAKES.

MOST GUIDANCE DEPICTS THIS LOW AS MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST UP THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT...WITH A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING OVER VIRGINIA AND
HEADING EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. THIS IS
CERTAINLY MORE OF A WINTER-LIKE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THAN WHAT YOU
WOULD EXPECT TO SEE IN JULY...BUT THE RESULTS WILL BE FAIRLY
SIMILAR...WITH SOME WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT INDUCED RAIN
MOVING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN PERHAPS DRY SLOT WITH
LINGERING DRIZZLE DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. AS THE
UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
AREA LATER SATURDAY...FORCING WILL LIKELY ALLOW SHOWERS TO POP
BACK UP ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN THE MUCH MORE HUMID AIR MASS
COMPARED TO WINTER...AND THE UNUSUAL DYNAMICS FOR JULY...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...BUT ENOUGH STABILITY APPEARS
PRESENT TO PREVENT ANY SORT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FROM
DEVELOPING. THERE ARE HINTS IN SOME GUIDANCE OF A SIGNIFICANT
UPSLOPE FLOW PRODUCING EXCESSIVE RAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AND SOME MODELING SOLUTIONS IN
FACT INCLUDE THESE AREAS IN THE DRY SLOT LATER ON CAUSING THEM TO
MISS OUT. THEREFORE...DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD WATCHES
UNTIL THERE IS A BETTER SIGNAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAIN. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 60S IN MOST AREAS...WHILE HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL STAY MOSTLY IN THE 70S THANKS TO
CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT UPPER
TROUGH MAY STILL KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE IMPROVING...BUT IF THERE IS CLEARING LATE SOME
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP. LOWS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 60S.

NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HOVERING NEAR THE
VA/NC BORDER WILL BE MINIMAL ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
AT THE SFC UNDER A DEVELOPING RIDGE ALOFT. LOW PRESSURE RIDING THE
FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY 12Z SUN...WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEN
EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. DEPENDING ON WHERE EXACTLY
THE FRONT ALIGNS...A STRAY SHOWER OR TSTM COULD MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...SO WILL JUST CONTINUE WITH THE CHC
POPS FOR NOW. BY SUNDAY EVENING...12Z GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
INDICATING RIDGE AXIS ALIGNS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW PROGRESSION
OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO PROGRESS ALONG THE APPALACHIANS.
STILL UNSURE HOW FAR NORTH THE PCPN WILL PROGRESS DURING THE NIGHT
WITH ANY SFC BOUNDARIES LOOKING TO LINGER FURTHER SOUTH...AND NOT
PUSHING NORTH TILL THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WORK WEEK.

WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. 850MB
TEMPS RIGHT AROUND 13-14C...WITH MOST OF THE AREA PUSHING INTO
THE 80S. DEW PTS GENERALLY HOVERING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD BE GENERATED TO RESULT IN
THUNDER...WHEREVER ANY CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP. HOWEVER...LACK OF
SHEAR SHOULD KEEP TSTMS BELOW SVR LVLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW OPENING UP AND FLOW BECOMING ZONAL OVER
MID ATLANTIC REGION AS TROUGH ON NORTHERN TRACK MOVES EASTWARD.
NEXT TROUGH TO AFFECT REGION FRIDAY. AREAS OF WEAK TO MODERATE PVA
PRESENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER REGION WILL SLOWLY FILL THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND BE REPLACED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING.
DYNAMICS SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH
DRYING OVERNIGHT. MORE DEVELOPMENT DUE AS A FRONT FROM THE WEST
CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STORM SYSTEM MOVING IN WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WITH
CIGS AND VIS LOWERING TO IFR AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE
LOW BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
AND AGAIN SATURDAY...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE NO HIGHER THAN
ISOLATED. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE
NEXT 36 HOURS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED CIGS/VIS IF PATCHY FOG
FORMS IN THE WAKE OF THE RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT.

MVFR CIGS PSBL INITIALLY SUN MORNING...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING
TO VFR AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE DAY. KCHO HAS THE BEST CHC OF
SEEING ANY PCPN SUN-SUN NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...LESS THAN 8
KTS.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THRU NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH WILL INTENSIFY WINDS UP TO LOW-
END SCA LEVELS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAIN
CONCERN IS LOWERED VISIBILITY IN RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THUNDER IS POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT.

WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT FLOW SUN-SUN
NIGHT...KEEPING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS IN PLACE. SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS
SUN NIGHT...THOUGH WITH MINIMAL IMPACT ON VSBY.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THRU NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SOME GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS. THOUGHT WAS GIVEN TO THE POTENTIAL TO ISSUE A FLOOD
WATCH...BUT AT THIS TIME FEEL PRECIPITATION WILL FALL SLOWLY
ENOUGH AND BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO NOT CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOOD
CONCERNS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EASTERLY FLOW AROUND A PASSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HELP
ELEVATE WATER LEVELS ALONG TIDAL PORTIONS OF THE POTOMAC AND THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY SHORE. AT THIS TIME THINK LEVELS WILL STAY JUST
BELOW MINOR FLOOD...BUT COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WOULD BE
NECESSARY WITH ONLY A MODEST INCREASE IN PROJECTED WATER LEVELS.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ534-536-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS
NEAR TERM...RCM
SHORT TERM...SEARS/RCM
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...CEM/SEARS/RCM
MARINE...CEM/SEARS/RCM
HYDROLOGY...RCM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RCM




000
FXUS61 KLWX 031908
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
308 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE EAST-NORTHEAST UP THE OHIO VALLEY
TONIGHT. A SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER VIRGINIA AND HEAD
EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY AND LINGER IN THE AREA FOR A FEW DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...A STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG THE BORDERS OF
NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA...STRETCHING WEST ALONG THE BORDERS OF
KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE...AND THE BORDERS OF MISSOURI AND
ARKANSAS...FINALLY TERMINATING IN OKLAHOMA. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
WAS LOCATED ALONG THIS FRONT NEAR THE KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE
BORDER...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATED THE GREAT LAKES.

MOST GUIDANCE DEPICTS THIS LOW AS MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST UP THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT...WITH A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING OVER VIRGINIA AND
HEADING EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. THIS IS
CERTAINLY MORE OF A WINTER-LIKE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THAN WHAT YOU
WOULD EXPECT TO SEE IN JULY...BUT THE RESULTS WILL BE FAIRLY
SIMILAR...WITH SOME WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT INDUCED RAIN
MOVING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN PERHAPS DRY SLOT WITH
LINGERING DRIZZLE DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. AS THE
UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
AREA LATER SATURDAY...FORCING WILL LIKELY ALLOW SHOWERS TO POP
BACK UP ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN THE MUCH MORE HUMID AIR MASS
COMPARED TO WINTER...AND THE UNUSUAL DYNAMICS FOR JULY...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...BUT ENOUGH STABILITY APPEARS
PRESENT TO PREVENT ANY SORT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FROM
DEVELOPING. THERE ARE HINTS IN SOME GUIDANCE OF A SIGNIFICANT
UPSLOPE FLOW PRODUCING EXCESSIVE RAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AND SOME MODELING SOLUTIONS IN
FACT INCLUDE THESE AREAS IN THE DRY SLOT LATER ON CAUSING THEM TO
MISS OUT. THEREFORE...DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD WATCHES
UNTIL THERE IS A BETTER SIGNAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAIN. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 60S IN MOST AREAS...WHILE HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL STAY MOSTLY IN THE 70S THANKS TO
CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT UPPER
TROUGH MAY STILL KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE IMPROVING...BUT IF THERE IS CLEARING LATE SOME
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP. LOWS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 60S.

NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HOVERING NEAR THE
VA/NC BORDER WILL BE MINIMAL ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
AT THE SFC UNDER A DEVELOPING RIDGE ALOFT. LOW PRESSURE RIDING THE
FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY 12Z SUN...WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEN
EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. DEPENDING ON WHERE EXACTLY
THE FRONT ALIGNS...A STRAY SHOWER OR TSTM COULD MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...SO WILL JUST CONTINUE WITH THE CHC
POPS FOR NOW. BY SUNDAY EVENING...12Z GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
INDICATING RIDGE AXIS ALIGNS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW PROGRESSION
OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO PROGRESS ALONG THE APPALACHIANS.
STILL UNSURE HOW FAR NORTH THE PCPN WILL PROGRESS DURING THE NIGHT
WITH ANY SFC BOUNDARIES LOOKING TO LINGER FURTHER SOUTH...AND NOT
PUSHING NORTH TILL THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WORK WEEK.

WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. 850MB
TEMPS RIGHT AROUND 13-14C...WITH MOST OF THE AREA PUSHING INTO
THE 80S. DEW PTS GENERALLY HOVERING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD BE GENERATED TO RESULT IN
THUNDER...WHEREVER ANY CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP. HOWEVER...LACK OF
SHEAR SHOULD KEEP TSTMS BELOW SVR LVLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW OPENING UP AND FLOW BECOMING ZONAL OVER
MID ATLANTIC REGION AS TROUGH ON NORTHERN TRACK MOVES EASTWARD.
NEXT TROUGH TO AFFECT REGION FRIDAY. AREAS OF WEAK TO MODERATE PVA
PRESENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER REGION WILL SLOWLY FILL THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND BE REPLACED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING.
DYNAMICS SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH
DRYING OVERNIGHT. MORE DEVELOPMENT DUE AS A FRONT FROM THE WEST
CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STORM SYSTEM MOVING IN WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WITH
CIGS AND VIS LOWERING TO IFR AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE
LOW BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
AND AGAIN SATURDAY...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE NO HIGHER THAN
ISOLATED. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE
NEXT 36 HOURS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED CIGS/VIS IF PATCHY FOG
FORMS IN THE WAKE OF THE RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT.

MVFR CIGS PSBL INITIALLY SUN MORNING...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING
TO VFR AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE DAY. KCHO HAS THE BEST CHC OF
SEEING ANY PCPN SUN-SUN NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...LESS THAN 8
KTS.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THRU NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH WILL INTENSIFY WINDS UP TO LOW-
END SCA LEVELS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAIN
CONCERN IS LOWERED VISIBILITY IN RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THUNDER IS POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT.

WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT FLOW SUN-SUN
NIGHT...KEEPING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS IN PLACE. SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS
SUN NIGHT...THOUGH WITH MINIMAL IMPACT ON VSBY.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THRU NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SOME GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS. THOUGHT WAS GIVEN TO THE POTENTIAL TO ISSUE A FLOOD
WATCH...BUT AT THIS TIME FEEL PRECIPITATION WILL FALL SLOWLY
ENOUGH AND BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO NOT CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOOD
CONCERNS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EASTERLY FLOW AROUND A PASSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HELP
ELEVATE WATER LEVELS ALONG TIDAL PORTIONS OF THE POTOMAC AND THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY SHORE. AT THIS TIME THINK LEVELS WILL STAY JUST
BELOW MINOR FLOOD...BUT COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WOULD BE
NECESSARY WITH ONLY A MODEST INCREASE IN PROJECTED WATER LEVELS.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ534-536-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS
NEAR TERM...RCM
SHORT TERM...SEARS/RCM
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...CEM/SEARS/RCM
MARINE...CEM/SEARS/RCM
HYDROLOGY...RCM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RCM




000
FXUS61 KLWX 031908
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
308 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE EAST-NORTHEAST UP THE OHIO VALLEY
TONIGHT. A SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER VIRGINIA AND HEAD
EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY AND LINGER IN THE AREA FOR A FEW DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...A STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG THE BORDERS OF
NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA...STRETCHING WEST ALONG THE BORDERS OF
KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE...AND THE BORDERS OF MISSOURI AND
ARKANSAS...FINALLY TERMINATING IN OKLAHOMA. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
WAS LOCATED ALONG THIS FRONT NEAR THE KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE
BORDER...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATED THE GREAT LAKES.

MOST GUIDANCE DEPICTS THIS LOW AS MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST UP THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT...WITH A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING OVER VIRGINIA AND
HEADING EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. THIS IS
CERTAINLY MORE OF A WINTER-LIKE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THAN WHAT YOU
WOULD EXPECT TO SEE IN JULY...BUT THE RESULTS WILL BE FAIRLY
SIMILAR...WITH SOME WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT INDUCED RAIN
MOVING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN PERHAPS DRY SLOT WITH
LINGERING DRIZZLE DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. AS THE
UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
AREA LATER SATURDAY...FORCING WILL LIKELY ALLOW SHOWERS TO POP
BACK UP ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN THE MUCH MORE HUMID AIR MASS
COMPARED TO WINTER...AND THE UNUSUAL DYNAMICS FOR JULY...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...BUT ENOUGH STABILITY APPEARS
PRESENT TO PREVENT ANY SORT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FROM
DEVELOPING. THERE ARE HINTS IN SOME GUIDANCE OF A SIGNIFICANT
UPSLOPE FLOW PRODUCING EXCESSIVE RAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AND SOME MODELING SOLUTIONS IN
FACT INCLUDE THESE AREAS IN THE DRY SLOT LATER ON CAUSING THEM TO
MISS OUT. THEREFORE...DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD WATCHES
UNTIL THERE IS A BETTER SIGNAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAIN. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 60S IN MOST AREAS...WHILE HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL STAY MOSTLY IN THE 70S THANKS TO
CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT UPPER
TROUGH MAY STILL KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE IMPROVING...BUT IF THERE IS CLEARING LATE SOME
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP. LOWS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 60S.

NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HOVERING NEAR THE
VA/NC BORDER WILL BE MINIMAL ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
AT THE SFC UNDER A DEVELOPING RIDGE ALOFT. LOW PRESSURE RIDING THE
FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY 12Z SUN...WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEN
EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. DEPENDING ON WHERE EXACTLY
THE FRONT ALIGNS...A STRAY SHOWER OR TSTM COULD MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...SO WILL JUST CONTINUE WITH THE CHC
POPS FOR NOW. BY SUNDAY EVENING...12Z GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
INDICATING RIDGE AXIS ALIGNS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW PROGRESSION
OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO PROGRESS ALONG THE APPALACHIANS.
STILL UNSURE HOW FAR NORTH THE PCPN WILL PROGRESS DURING THE NIGHT
WITH ANY SFC BOUNDARIES LOOKING TO LINGER FURTHER SOUTH...AND NOT
PUSHING NORTH TILL THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WORK WEEK.

WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. 850MB
TEMPS RIGHT AROUND 13-14C...WITH MOST OF THE AREA PUSHING INTO
THE 80S. DEW PTS GENERALLY HOVERING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD BE GENERATED TO RESULT IN
THUNDER...WHEREVER ANY CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP. HOWEVER...LACK OF
SHEAR SHOULD KEEP TSTMS BELOW SVR LVLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW OPENING UP AND FLOW BECOMING ZONAL OVER
MID ATLANTIC REGION AS TROUGH ON NORTHERN TRACK MOVES EASTWARD.
NEXT TROUGH TO AFFECT REGION FRIDAY. AREAS OF WEAK TO MODERATE PVA
PRESENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER REGION WILL SLOWLY FILL THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND BE REPLACED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING.
DYNAMICS SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH
DRYING OVERNIGHT. MORE DEVELOPMENT DUE AS A FRONT FROM THE WEST
CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STORM SYSTEM MOVING IN WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WITH
CIGS AND VIS LOWERING TO IFR AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE
LOW BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
AND AGAIN SATURDAY...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE NO HIGHER THAN
ISOLATED. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE
NEXT 36 HOURS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED CIGS/VIS IF PATCHY FOG
FORMS IN THE WAKE OF THE RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT.

MVFR CIGS PSBL INITIALLY SUN MORNING...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING
TO VFR AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE DAY. KCHO HAS THE BEST CHC OF
SEEING ANY PCPN SUN-SUN NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...LESS THAN 8
KTS.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THRU NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH WILL INTENSIFY WINDS UP TO LOW-
END SCA LEVELS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAIN
CONCERN IS LOWERED VISIBILITY IN RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THUNDER IS POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT.

WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT FLOW SUN-SUN
NIGHT...KEEPING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS IN PLACE. SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS
SUN NIGHT...THOUGH WITH MINIMAL IMPACT ON VSBY.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THRU NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SOME GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS. THOUGHT WAS GIVEN TO THE POTENTIAL TO ISSUE A FLOOD
WATCH...BUT AT THIS TIME FEEL PRECIPITATION WILL FALL SLOWLY
ENOUGH AND BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO NOT CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOOD
CONCERNS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EASTERLY FLOW AROUND A PASSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HELP
ELEVATE WATER LEVELS ALONG TIDAL PORTIONS OF THE POTOMAC AND THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY SHORE. AT THIS TIME THINK LEVELS WILL STAY JUST
BELOW MINOR FLOOD...BUT COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WOULD BE
NECESSARY WITH ONLY A MODEST INCREASE IN PROJECTED WATER LEVELS.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ534-536-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS
NEAR TERM...RCM
SHORT TERM...SEARS/RCM
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...CEM/SEARS/RCM
MARINE...CEM/SEARS/RCM
HYDROLOGY...RCM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RCM




000
FXUS61 KLWX 031908
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
308 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE EAST-NORTHEAST UP THE OHIO VALLEY
TONIGHT. A SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER VIRGINIA AND HEAD
EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY AND LINGER IN THE AREA FOR A FEW DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...A STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG THE BORDERS OF
NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA...STRETCHING WEST ALONG THE BORDERS OF
KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE...AND THE BORDERS OF MISSOURI AND
ARKANSAS...FINALLY TERMINATING IN OKLAHOMA. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
WAS LOCATED ALONG THIS FRONT NEAR THE KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE
BORDER...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATED THE GREAT LAKES.

MOST GUIDANCE DEPICTS THIS LOW AS MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST UP THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT...WITH A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING OVER VIRGINIA AND
HEADING EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. THIS IS
CERTAINLY MORE OF A WINTER-LIKE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THAN WHAT YOU
WOULD EXPECT TO SEE IN JULY...BUT THE RESULTS WILL BE FAIRLY
SIMILAR...WITH SOME WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT INDUCED RAIN
MOVING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN PERHAPS DRY SLOT WITH
LINGERING DRIZZLE DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. AS THE
UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
AREA LATER SATURDAY...FORCING WILL LIKELY ALLOW SHOWERS TO POP
BACK UP ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN THE MUCH MORE HUMID AIR MASS
COMPARED TO WINTER...AND THE UNUSUAL DYNAMICS FOR JULY...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...BUT ENOUGH STABILITY APPEARS
PRESENT TO PREVENT ANY SORT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FROM
DEVELOPING. THERE ARE HINTS IN SOME GUIDANCE OF A SIGNIFICANT
UPSLOPE FLOW PRODUCING EXCESSIVE RAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AND SOME MODELING SOLUTIONS IN
FACT INCLUDE THESE AREAS IN THE DRY SLOT LATER ON CAUSING THEM TO
MISS OUT. THEREFORE...DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD WATCHES
UNTIL THERE IS A BETTER SIGNAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAIN. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 60S IN MOST AREAS...WHILE HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL STAY MOSTLY IN THE 70S THANKS TO
CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT UPPER
TROUGH MAY STILL KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE IMPROVING...BUT IF THERE IS CLEARING LATE SOME
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP. LOWS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 60S.

NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HOVERING NEAR THE
VA/NC BORDER WILL BE MINIMAL ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
AT THE SFC UNDER A DEVELOPING RIDGE ALOFT. LOW PRESSURE RIDING THE
FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY 12Z SUN...WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEN
EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. DEPENDING ON WHERE EXACTLY
THE FRONT ALIGNS...A STRAY SHOWER OR TSTM COULD MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...SO WILL JUST CONTINUE WITH THE CHC
POPS FOR NOW. BY SUNDAY EVENING...12Z GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
INDICATING RIDGE AXIS ALIGNS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW PROGRESSION
OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO PROGRESS ALONG THE APPALACHIANS.
STILL UNSURE HOW FAR NORTH THE PCPN WILL PROGRESS DURING THE NIGHT
WITH ANY SFC BOUNDARIES LOOKING TO LINGER FURTHER SOUTH...AND NOT
PUSHING NORTH TILL THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WORK WEEK.

WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. 850MB
TEMPS RIGHT AROUND 13-14C...WITH MOST OF THE AREA PUSHING INTO
THE 80S. DEW PTS GENERALLY HOVERING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD BE GENERATED TO RESULT IN
THUNDER...WHEREVER ANY CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP. HOWEVER...LACK OF
SHEAR SHOULD KEEP TSTMS BELOW SVR LVLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW OPENING UP AND FLOW BECOMING ZONAL OVER
MID ATLANTIC REGION AS TROUGH ON NORTHERN TRACK MOVES EASTWARD.
NEXT TROUGH TO AFFECT REGION FRIDAY. AREAS OF WEAK TO MODERATE PVA
PRESENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER REGION WILL SLOWLY FILL THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND BE REPLACED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING.
DYNAMICS SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH
DRYING OVERNIGHT. MORE DEVELOPMENT DUE AS A FRONT FROM THE WEST
CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STORM SYSTEM MOVING IN WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WITH
CIGS AND VIS LOWERING TO IFR AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE
LOW BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
AND AGAIN SATURDAY...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE NO HIGHER THAN
ISOLATED. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE
NEXT 36 HOURS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED CIGS/VIS IF PATCHY FOG
FORMS IN THE WAKE OF THE RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT.

MVFR CIGS PSBL INITIALLY SUN MORNING...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING
TO VFR AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE DAY. KCHO HAS THE BEST CHC OF
SEEING ANY PCPN SUN-SUN NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...LESS THAN 8
KTS.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THRU NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH WILL INTENSIFY WINDS UP TO LOW-
END SCA LEVELS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAIN
CONCERN IS LOWERED VISIBILITY IN RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THUNDER IS POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT.

WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT FLOW SUN-SUN
NIGHT...KEEPING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS IN PLACE. SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS
SUN NIGHT...THOUGH WITH MINIMAL IMPACT ON VSBY.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THRU NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SOME GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS. THOUGHT WAS GIVEN TO THE POTENTIAL TO ISSUE A FLOOD
WATCH...BUT AT THIS TIME FEEL PRECIPITATION WILL FALL SLOWLY
ENOUGH AND BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO NOT CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOOD
CONCERNS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EASTERLY FLOW AROUND A PASSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HELP
ELEVATE WATER LEVELS ALONG TIDAL PORTIONS OF THE POTOMAC AND THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY SHORE. AT THIS TIME THINK LEVELS WILL STAY JUST
BELOW MINOR FLOOD...BUT COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WOULD BE
NECESSARY WITH ONLY A MODEST INCREASE IN PROJECTED WATER LEVELS.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ534-536-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS
NEAR TERM...RCM
SHORT TERM...SEARS/RCM
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...CEM/SEARS/RCM
MARINE...CEM/SEARS/RCM
HYDROLOGY...RCM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RCM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031901
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
301 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS IN THE VICINITY.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
OVERALL THINKING REMAINS THE SAME WITH THE STALL FRONT DOWN ACROSS
NCENTRAL NC...SOUTH OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND MANTEO. THE WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER EAST CENTRAL KY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY ENE
DURING THE DAY TODAY AND PUSH INTO CENTRAL VA TONIGHT. THIS WILL
PULL THE FRONT BACK TO THE NORTH WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT. THE 12 NAM HAS SLOWED WITH ITS PROGRESSION OF THE
SHOWERS BY ABOUT 3 TO 6 HOURS SO FOR THE UPDATE HAVE SLOWED THE
INCREASE IN THE POPS TO THE NE DURING THE DAY...KEEPING THE LOWER
MD EASTERN SHORE DRY THROUGH 6 PM WITH JUST A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. ALSO WAS A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTIC ON THE SKY
COVER COVER WITH THE SLOWERS PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM.

PREV DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A STALLED FRNTAL
BNDRY ACROSS NRN NC. N OF THE FRNT OVER THE FA VSBYS ARE REDUCED
TO 1-3 MILES SO MENTIONED PATCHY FOG THRU THE ERLY MORNG HRS AS
WINDS ARE CALM/LIGHT AND SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT IN SOME LOCATIONS.
ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THIS MORNG ASIDE FM CSTL PORTIONS
OF NE NC. THE DRY WX MAY CONTINUE THRU THE MIDDAY HRS...BEFORE A
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF APPROACHES FM THE W LATE IN THE
DAY...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ESPECIALLY OVER SW AREAS. TSTMS PSBL
BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SVR WX EXPECTED WITH A MSTLY CLOUDY SKY
LIMITING INSTABILITY AND TEMPS BLO NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE LO TO MID
80S. MAIN THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS PWATS APPROACH 2
IN.

AREA OF PCPN ACROSS SW AREAS THIS AFTN SHIFTS NE THRU THE FA THIS
EVENG AND TNGT AS THE SFC FRNTAL BNDRY STARTS SLIDING NORTHWARD.
LO TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S UNDER A MOSTLY CLOUDY-CLOUDY
SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WX CONTINUES INTO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE SFC
FRNTAL BNDRY REMAINS OVER THE MID ATLC. SHRAS/TSTMS WILL AGAIN BE
PSBL SAT AS AN UPR-LEVEL TROF AXIS APPROACHES FM THE W AND
DEVELOPS A SFC LO THAT RIDES THE FRNT. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER
ON THE PLACEMENT/TIMING OF PCPN...BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH 30-50%
POPS ACROSS THE FA...CONTINUING INTO SAT NIGHT. HEAVY RAIN REMAINS
AS THE GREATEST IMPACT. ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR PCPN SUN ESPECIALLY OVER SRN AREAS. QPF UP TO 1 IN
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS PSBL IN AREAS THAT
RECEIVE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION. TEMPS REMAIN SLIGHTLY BLO
NORMAL BOTH DAYS...WITH HIGHS AVGG IN THE MID 80S AREAWIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY CONTINUED LOW AMPLITUDE
UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. EXPECT THAT WITH OCCASIONAL
UPPER DISTURBANCES/PERTURBATIONS PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION, AND WITH
WEAK SFC TROUGH ALONG THE SE COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD, OUR
CURRENT PATTERN OF MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE KEPT POPS
IN THE CHC RANGE BY DAY, SLIGHT CHC OR LESS OVERNIGHT. HIGHEST POPS
IN THE PERIOD ARE ON MONDAY WITH QUICK MOVING UPPER SHORTWAVE
PINWHEELING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT PER BOTH THE
12Z/02 ECMWF AND GFS. FORECAST PW VALUES WILL ALSO REMAIN HIGH
THROUGH THE PERIOD...LINGERING AROUND +2 S.D. ABOVE NORMAL.
ACCORDINGLY, WE`LL NEED TO BE ON GUARD FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, WITH THIS INCREASED
HUMIDITY/DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE PERIOD, TOOK A DEGREE OR TWO OFF HIGH
TEMPS MON-WED...GENERALLY FAVORING A TYPICAL MID-JULY
WARM/MODERATELY HUMID SET UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FNTL BNDRY WILL RMN JUST S OF THE VA/NC BORDER INTO THIS AFTN.
MDLS TRACK SFC LO PRES FM THE OH/TN VLYS THROUGH THE NRN MDATLC
RGN FM LT TDA THROUGH SAT. THE FNTL BNDRY TO THE S (NOW) RETURNS N
BEGINNING LT TNGT...CONTG INTO FRI. SHRAS/PSBL TSTMS XPCD BY LT
THIS AFTN...CONTG INTO SAT. A SECOND ADDITIONAL WAVE OF PCPN PSBL
SAT NGT/SUN AS FNTL BNDRY SINKS S AGN...AND WK SFC LO PRES TRACKS
THROUGH NC. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/DURATION OF ANY IFR CONDS LO ATTM
INTO SUN (AND LIKELY TO BE CONFINED TO PDS OF PCPN).

&&

.MARINE...
UNSETTLED WX CONDS CONT OVER THE WTRS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WKND.
FNTL BNDRY HAS SETTLED OVR THE NC CSTL WTRS...AND RMNS THERE THIS
MRNG...BEFORE PULLING BACK N LT TNGT INTO SAT. PRIMARILY NNE WNDS
BECOMING ESE TDA (SPEEDS AOB 15 KT)...THOUGH VRB INVOF NE NC WTRS.
THE BNDRY SINKS BACK S LT SAT INTO SUN AS WK SFC LO PRES EXITS S
OF NEW ENG...RESULTING IN WINDS SWITCHING FM MNLY SSW (SAT) TO NNE
(SUN). THROUGH THE WKND...CONDS RMN SUB-SCA...W/ WAVES IN THE BAY
AVGG 1-2 FT AND SEAS ON THE OCN WTRS AVGG 2-4 FT...AND WIND SPEEDS
MNLY AOB 15 KT. GUSTY WNDS/HVY RA WILL BE PSBL IN ANY TSTMS THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...ESS/MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...ALB/DAP
MARINE...ALB



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031901
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
301 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS IN THE VICINITY.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
OVERALL THINKING REMAINS THE SAME WITH THE STALL FRONT DOWN ACROSS
NCENTRAL NC...SOUTH OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND MANTEO. THE WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER EAST CENTRAL KY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY ENE
DURING THE DAY TODAY AND PUSH INTO CENTRAL VA TONIGHT. THIS WILL
PULL THE FRONT BACK TO THE NORTH WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT. THE 12 NAM HAS SLOWED WITH ITS PROGRESSION OF THE
SHOWERS BY ABOUT 3 TO 6 HOURS SO FOR THE UPDATE HAVE SLOWED THE
INCREASE IN THE POPS TO THE NE DURING THE DAY...KEEPING THE LOWER
MD EASTERN SHORE DRY THROUGH 6 PM WITH JUST A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. ALSO WAS A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTIC ON THE SKY
COVER COVER WITH THE SLOWERS PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM.

PREV DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A STALLED FRNTAL
BNDRY ACROSS NRN NC. N OF THE FRNT OVER THE FA VSBYS ARE REDUCED
TO 1-3 MILES SO MENTIONED PATCHY FOG THRU THE ERLY MORNG HRS AS
WINDS ARE CALM/LIGHT AND SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT IN SOME LOCATIONS.
ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THIS MORNG ASIDE FM CSTL PORTIONS
OF NE NC. THE DRY WX MAY CONTINUE THRU THE MIDDAY HRS...BEFORE A
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF APPROACHES FM THE W LATE IN THE
DAY...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ESPECIALLY OVER SW AREAS. TSTMS PSBL
BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SVR WX EXPECTED WITH A MSTLY CLOUDY SKY
LIMITING INSTABILITY AND TEMPS BLO NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE LO TO MID
80S. MAIN THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS PWATS APPROACH 2
IN.

AREA OF PCPN ACROSS SW AREAS THIS AFTN SHIFTS NE THRU THE FA THIS
EVENG AND TNGT AS THE SFC FRNTAL BNDRY STARTS SLIDING NORTHWARD.
LO TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S UNDER A MOSTLY CLOUDY-CLOUDY
SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WX CONTINUES INTO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE SFC
FRNTAL BNDRY REMAINS OVER THE MID ATLC. SHRAS/TSTMS WILL AGAIN BE
PSBL SAT AS AN UPR-LEVEL TROF AXIS APPROACHES FM THE W AND
DEVELOPS A SFC LO THAT RIDES THE FRNT. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER
ON THE PLACEMENT/TIMING OF PCPN...BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH 30-50%
POPS ACROSS THE FA...CONTINUING INTO SAT NIGHT. HEAVY RAIN REMAINS
AS THE GREATEST IMPACT. ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR PCPN SUN ESPECIALLY OVER SRN AREAS. QPF UP TO 1 IN
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS PSBL IN AREAS THAT
RECEIVE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION. TEMPS REMAIN SLIGHTLY BLO
NORMAL BOTH DAYS...WITH HIGHS AVGG IN THE MID 80S AREAWIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY CONTINUED LOW AMPLITUDE
UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. EXPECT THAT WITH OCCASIONAL
UPPER DISTURBANCES/PERTURBATIONS PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION, AND WITH
WEAK SFC TROUGH ALONG THE SE COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD, OUR
CURRENT PATTERN OF MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE KEPT POPS
IN THE CHC RANGE BY DAY, SLIGHT CHC OR LESS OVERNIGHT. HIGHEST POPS
IN THE PERIOD ARE ON MONDAY WITH QUICK MOVING UPPER SHORTWAVE
PINWHEELING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT PER BOTH THE
12Z/02 ECMWF AND GFS. FORECAST PW VALUES WILL ALSO REMAIN HIGH
THROUGH THE PERIOD...LINGERING AROUND +2 S.D. ABOVE NORMAL.
ACCORDINGLY, WE`LL NEED TO BE ON GUARD FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, WITH THIS INCREASED
HUMIDITY/DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE PERIOD, TOOK A DEGREE OR TWO OFF HIGH
TEMPS MON-WED...GENERALLY FAVORING A TYPICAL MID-JULY
WARM/MODERATELY HUMID SET UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FNTL BNDRY WILL RMN JUST S OF THE VA/NC BORDER INTO THIS AFTN.
MDLS TRACK SFC LO PRES FM THE OH/TN VLYS THROUGH THE NRN MDATLC
RGN FM LT TDA THROUGH SAT. THE FNTL BNDRY TO THE S (NOW) RETURNS N
BEGINNING LT TNGT...CONTG INTO FRI. SHRAS/PSBL TSTMS XPCD BY LT
THIS AFTN...CONTG INTO SAT. A SECOND ADDITIONAL WAVE OF PCPN PSBL
SAT NGT/SUN AS FNTL BNDRY SINKS S AGN...AND WK SFC LO PRES TRACKS
THROUGH NC. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/DURATION OF ANY IFR CONDS LO ATTM
INTO SUN (AND LIKELY TO BE CONFINED TO PDS OF PCPN).

&&

.MARINE...
UNSETTLED WX CONDS CONT OVER THE WTRS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WKND.
FNTL BNDRY HAS SETTLED OVR THE NC CSTL WTRS...AND RMNS THERE THIS
MRNG...BEFORE PULLING BACK N LT TNGT INTO SAT. PRIMARILY NNE WNDS
BECOMING ESE TDA (SPEEDS AOB 15 KT)...THOUGH VRB INVOF NE NC WTRS.
THE BNDRY SINKS BACK S LT SAT INTO SUN AS WK SFC LO PRES EXITS S
OF NEW ENG...RESULTING IN WINDS SWITCHING FM MNLY SSW (SAT) TO NNE
(SUN). THROUGH THE WKND...CONDS RMN SUB-SCA...W/ WAVES IN THE BAY
AVGG 1-2 FT AND SEAS ON THE OCN WTRS AVGG 2-4 FT...AND WIND SPEEDS
MNLY AOB 15 KT. GUSTY WNDS/HVY RA WILL BE PSBL IN ANY TSTMS THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...ESS/MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...ALB/DAP
MARINE...ALB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 031758
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
158 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED...WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT FRIDAY...

HEAVIER SHOWERS STARTING TO MOVE INTO FAR SW VA AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHSIDE VA ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND IN ADVANCE OF A COUPLE OF
UPPER WAVES OVER WV AND NE TN.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO ENHANCE RAINFALL FURTHER EAST THIS
AFTERNOON SO HAVE KEPT HIGH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS AFTER 3
PM...HIGHER IN THE MTNS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL TRAINING
OR SLOW MOVING HEAVIER SHOWERS OR STORMS...AND MAY NEED TO HOIST A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IF UPSTREAM CONDITIONS WARRANT. THE DAY
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK FROM WPC HAS WRN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. WILL HAVE TO
ALSO CONSIDER LATER PERIODS INTO THE WEEKEND FOR FLOODING THREAT.

NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS LATE MORNING DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FORECAST TO FOLLOW A BLEND OF RADAR TRENDS COMBINED WITH
THE LATEST RAP/12Z HRRR. SHOULD SEE SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS
SE WV TO THE INTERSTATE 81 CORRIDOR NEAR ROANOKE SHIFT NE THROUGH
MIDDAY...WITH ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE ELSEWHERE.

NEXT UPSTREAM CONVECTION LIES ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE IN SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY AND WE WILL SEE THIS AREA MOVE INTO OUR WRN COUNTIES
AFTER NOON-1PM. TAPERED POPS OFF SOME THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
GIVEN RADAR TRENDS.

THUNDER CHANCES WILL REMAIN AS WE GET BETTER UPPER SUPPORT FROM
THE WAVE MOVING OUT OF TN/KY THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH INSOLATION
WILL BE CLOSED OFF DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME THIN SPOTS AT TIMES THOUGH. 12Z RNK SOUNDING SHOWS A VERY
MOIST PROFILE. MODIFIED FOR SOME INCREASE TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS
FAVORS SBCAPES OVER 1000 J/KG. SO CUT BACK THUNDER TO SCATTERED
COMPARED TO LIKELY/NUMEROUS.

LOOKS LIKE AXIS OF DEEP CONVECTION WILL GET GOING INTO WV/SW VA
THIS AFTERNOON MOVING ENE INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. STILL
NOT EXPECTING A LONG LIVED HEAVY RAIN EVENT...SO NO WATCHES FOR
NOW...BUT WILL MONITOR FOR ISOLATED FLOOD POTENTIAL. WILL CONTINUE
TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE HYDRO
ISSUES IN THE HWO.

IN ADDITION THERE IS SOME FOG AROUND THANKS TO COOL STABLE LAYER
EARLY ON OVER THE MTNS AND RAIN KEEPING RH NEAR 100 PERCENT. THINK
FOG TO FADE TOWARD EARLY AFTERNOON EXPECT HIGHER PEAKS ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE.

CUT BACK HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BUT STILL MAINLY 70S AREA WIDE.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

ACTIVITY MOVING OUT AND WINDING DOWN THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT.

AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SWING BACK THROUGH THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT. THIS
WILL YIELD SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT TO THE EAST

LOWS TONIGHT RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S EAST TO LOWER 60S WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT FRIDAY...

THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH PLAGUING THE EASTERN U.S. WILL UNDERGO
SOME SUBTLE MODIFICATIONS DURING THIS PERIOD. SAT-SUN...THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL TAKE ON A POSITIVE TILT AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES/PA REGION. MEANWHILE...THE SOUTHERN END
BECOMES CUTOFF ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND LINGERS ACROSS THAT REGION
SUN...THEN GRADUALLY DRIFTS BACK NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN VA MON AND
NORTHERN VA TUE. THUS...THE AREA REMAINS UNSETTLED AND WET...BUT
WITH A GRADUAL SHIFT OF THE BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA WITH TIME.

FOR SATURDAY...YET AGAIN...POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO START OFF THE DAY...JUST AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE THE PAST TWO DAYS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW AT
THIS POINT AS IT WILL LARGELY BE BASED ON UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES...TRACK...AND INTENSITY. HOWEVER...FEEL THAT CONFIDENCE
IN ONGOING PRECIPITATION AT 12Z IS SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THE PAST
TWO DAYS AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST MOVING THE CURRENT
CORRIDOR OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE TN VALLEY EASTWARD INTO OUR
REGION. THE EXTENT OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING WILL
DETERMINE THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND HENCE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
LATER IN THE DAY. UPPER FLOW TENDS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST
INSTEAD OF NORTHWEST DURING THIS PERIOD GIVEN THE TRANSITION OF
THE WEAK UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS INTO THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SPC CURRENTLY ONLY HAS GENERAL THUNDER ACROSS
THE REGION GIVEN THE LACK OF INSTABILITY. WITH FAIRLY WET
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL
AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT FFG
WILL BE EXCEEDED AS RAINFALL AMOUNTS WOULD NEED TO EXCEED 2-2.5
INCHES IN 1-3 HRS MOST LOCATIONS FOR THIS TO OCCUR. PROJECTED
RAINFALL FOR THE THREE DAY PERIOD TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY IS MOSTLY
1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES.

FOR SUNDAY...THE WEAK UPPER LOW DRIFTS BACK NORTH INTO THE CWA.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS A