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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 212049
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
449 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND IS SLOW TO
BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK BROAD LOW PRESSURE IN
VICINITY OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH A BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM
E-CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER PA AHEAD OF A
~100KT UPPER JET DIVING ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES. SPC MESOANALYSIS
INDICATES 35-40KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM SE PA THROUGH THE LOWER MD
ERN SHORE ALONG WITH AN AXIS OF 1500J/KG OF MLCAPE. THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE ERN SHORE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE JET DIVES SE. A FEW STRONGER
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE BASED ON FAVORABLE DYNAMIC AND THERMODYNAMIC
PARAMETERS...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE RATHER WEAK LAPSE RATES. OTHERWISE...A
CHC (30-40%) OF GENERAL THUNDER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER
JET ENERGY PASSES OVER THE AREA AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS IN
PLACE. LESS FOG IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID/UPPER NW FLOW REMAINS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. A
MORE VIGOROUS WAVE DROPS THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE BEST CHC OF AND GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD DUE
TO MORE FAVORABLE/STRONGER UPPER JET SUPPORT. POCKETS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN MODEST MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE UPPER
SUPPORT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND SLOWLY
PUSHES INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL PUSH THE REMNANT FRONT S
OF THE AREA. CHC POPS WILL CONTINUE EARLY SATURDAY...WITH A STEADY
DRYING TREND COMMENCING SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM NNE-SSW AS THE HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY 85-90...AND THEN FROM THE LOW TO MID
80S SATURDAY (UPPER 70S ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES)...WITH UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S SUNDAY. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
SATURDAY...AND IN THE 60S SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF MAINLY NE FLOW AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH RIDGES SOUTH WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
EMERGES FROM THE BAHAMAS. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A COOLER
MARITIME AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH WED BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BEGIN TO CENTER THEMSELVES OVER
THE FA. AT THIS POINT SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL AND WILL HELP TO DRY
THE ATMOSPHERE. PRECIP ALONG THE VA/NC COAST CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT DUE TO THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE NORTH AS THE SURFACE LOW
FORMS TO THE SOUTH. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISCREPANCY IN REGARDS TO
THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. AND
DUE TO THE LARGE DEGREE OF CHANGE IN MODEL RUNS...AT THIS
POINT...WILL NOT MODIFY THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TOO MUCH.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH LOWS AROUND 80 MON AND TUES...WARMING SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID 80S
WED AND THUR. SEASONAL LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE LIKELY AS
THE MARITIME AIRMASS WILL LIMIT SIGNIFICANT OVERNIGHT COOLING.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE AREA.
A STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THESE FRONTS COMBINED WITH A MOIST AIR MASS WILL TRIGGER
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE NUMEROUS ON FRIDAY. WITH A
SEA BREEZE AND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE EASTERN PART OF
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL HAVE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME THESE BUT THESE SHOULD END BY AROUND 00Z.
OUT TO THE WEST SEVERAL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS ARE MOVING
TOWARD THE AREA. THESE SHOULD DIMINISH AS THEY CROSS THE MOUNTAIN
BUT COULD STILL TRIGGER A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM NEAR KRIC THIS
EVENING. THE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST WILL PRODUCE PLENTY OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD PREVENT ANY WIDE
SPREAD FOG FROM FORMING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. EXPECT
CLEARING WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING.
WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MAINLY SOME EAST
WINDS NEAR THE COAST AND SOUTHWEST INLAND. ALL AREAS WILL SWITCH
TO NORTH OR NORTHEAST BY SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT IS CURRENTLY
POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
THIS WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST FRIDAY AFTN.
EARLY SAT MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTH FROM THE NORTHEASTERN
US CAUSING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. ENERGY
STREAMING SE WILL HELP FORM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL ENHANCE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE WATERS CAUSING NEAR SCA WIND GUST OVER THE BAY(18-20KT) AND THE
COASTAL WATERS(23-25KT) ON SATURDAY. DUE TO THE WIND DIRECTION AND
FETCH...EXPECT WAVES TO BUILD TO 4-6FT ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTAL
WATERS LASTING EARLY SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO POSITION OVER THE AREA BY TUESDAY BUT LOW PRESSURE
EMERGING FROM THE SOUTH MAY HELP TO MAINTAIN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH WED.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...MAS/JAB
MARINE...DAP






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 212006
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
406 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND IS SLOW TO
BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK BROAD LOW PRESSURE IN
VICINITY OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH A BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM
E-CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER PA AHEAD OF A
~100KT UPPER JET DIVING ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES. SPC MESOANALYSIS
INDICATES 35-40KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM SE PA THROUGH THE LOWER MD
ERN SHORE ALONG WITH AN AXIS OF 1500J/KG OF MLCAPE. THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE ERN SHORE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE JET DIVES SE. A FEW STRONGER
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE BASED ON FAVORABLE DYNAMIC AND THERMODYNAMIC
PARAMETERS...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE RATHER WEAK LAPSE RATES. OTHERWISE...A
CHC (30-40%) OF GENERAL THUNDER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER
JET ENERGY PASSES OVER THE AREA AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS IN
PLACE. LESS FOG IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID/UPPER NW FLOW REMAINS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. A
MORE VIGOROUS WAVE DROPS THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE BEST CHC OF AND GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD DUE
TO MORE FAVORABLE/STRONGER UPPER JET SUPPORT. POCKETS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN MODEST MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE UPPER
SUPPORT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND SLOWLY
PUSHES INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL PUSH THE REMNANT FRONT S
OF THE AREA. CHC POPS WILL CONTINUE EARLY SATURDAY...WITH A STEADY
DRYING TREND COMMENCING SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM NNE-SSW AS THE HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY 85-90...AND THEN FROM THE LOW TO MID
80S SATURDAY (UPPER 70S ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES)...WITH UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S SUNDAY. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
SATURDAY...AND IN THE 60S SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF MAINLY NE FLOW AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH RIDGES SOUTH WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
EMERGES FROM THE BAHAMAS. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A COOLER
MARITIME AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH WED BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BEGIN TO CENTER THEMSELVES OVER
THE FA. AT THIS POINT SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL AND WILL HELP TO DRY
THE ATMOSPHERE. PRECIP ALONG THE VA/NC COAST CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT DUE TO THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE NORTH AS THE SURFACE LOW
FORMS TO THE SOUTH. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISCREPANCY IN REGARDS TO
THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. AND
DUE TO THE LARGE DEGREE OF CHANGE IN MODEL RUNS...AT THIS
POINT...WILL NOT MODIFY THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TOO MUCH.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH LOWS AROUND 80 MON AND TUES...WARMING SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID 80S
WED AND THUR. SEASONAL LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE LIKELY AS
THE MARITIME AIRMASS WILL LIMIT SIGNIFICANT OVERNIGHT COOLING.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE AREA.
A STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THESE FRONTS COMBINED WITH A MOIST AIR MASS WILL TRIGGER
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE NUMEROUS ON FRIDAY. WITH A
SEA BREEZE AND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE EASTERN PART OF
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL HAVE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME THESE BUT THESE SHOULD END BY AROUND 00Z.
OUT TO THE WEST SEVERAL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS ARE MOVING
TOWARD THE AREA. THESE SHOULD DIMINISH AS THEY CROSS THE MOUNTAIN
BUT COULD STILL TRIGGER A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM NEAR KRIC THIS
EVENING. THE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST WILL PRODUCE PLENTY OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD PREVENT ANY WIDE
SPREAD FOG FROM FORMING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. EXPECT
CLEARING WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING.
WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MAINLY SOME EAST
WINDS NEAR THE COAST AND SOUTHWEST INLAND. ALL AREAS WILL SWITCH
TO NORTH OR NORTHEAST BY SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. A STATIONARY FRNT WILL
REMAIN JUST INLAND TDA OVR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WILL LEAD
TO LGT WINDS OVR ALL WTRS (AOB 10 KT) OUT OF THE S/SE. EXPECT MAINLY
2 FT SEAS (3 FT THIS MORNG OUT 20NM). THE FRNT STALLS OVR THE WTRS
TNGT AS A WAVE OF LO PRES DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRNT...VEERING WINDS
BEHIND THE LO TO AVG OUT OF THE N ON FRI. HI PRES OVR THE NE STATES
RIDGES SWD OVR THE WTRS FRI NGT INTO SAT AS LO PRES PUSHES OFF THE
NC COAST. A STRENGTHENING PRES GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
NELY WINDS OVER THE CSTAL WTRS LATE FRI NGT THRU SAT. HI PRES
REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE NE CST THRU ERLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. ATTM...SPEEDS APPEAR TO REMAIN
SUB-SCA...BUT SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BLD TO 4-5 FT LATE SAT THRU
MON.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...MAS/JAB
MARINE...MAS



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KRNK 211933
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
333 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE GULF COAST
WILL KEEP NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS INTO SATURDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING THE FRONT SHOULD
BRING DRIER AND COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM EDT THURSDAY...

DESPITE DECENT INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...CONVECTION
REMAINS LIMITED VIA WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT AND LOWER THETA-E UNDER
FAINT LOW LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER DECENT NW
FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE WITH ANOTHER UPSTREAM MID LEVEL WAVE
APPROACHING FROM OHIO WHICH IS CURRENTLY PRECEDED BY A WEAK
OUTFLOW DRIVEN BAND OF SHRA/TSRA. MODELS REMAIN INCONSISTENT IN
WHERE TO BRING BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS INTO THIS EVENING BUT
APPEARS SOME CONSENSUS ON SPILLING THE CURRENT MCS FEATURE INTO
WEST VA THROUGH SUNSET BEFORE IT FADES WITH LOSS OF HEATING. THUS
WILL MAINTAIN LOW LIKELY TO HIGH CHANCE POPS FAR NW THIRD GIVEN
MORE MORE EAST THAN SE MOVEMENT OF THIS FEATURE...WITH A QUICK
DROPOFF IN CHANCES HEADING EAST INTO THE DOWNSLOPING.

THIS IMPULSE QUICKLY PASSES/WEAKENS AFTER SUNSET GIVING WAY TO
INCREASING NW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE
RIDGE LATE. ALTHOUGH FOCUS WILL BE LIMITED AFTER LOSS OF
HEATING...SOME CONCERN WITH DEGREE OF LEFTOVER INSTABILITY AND
SOME ADDED TSRA DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIXING FADES ESPCLY IF COVERAGE
IS LESS EARLY ON. THIS SUPPORTS HOLDING ON TO SOME LOW POPS INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN OVER THE WEST
TOWARD DAYBREAK AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND
BUT MAINLY IN THE VALLEYS GIVEN CURRENT MIXING/WARMTH AND
OVERNIGHT CLOUDS. OTRW LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S BUT PERHAPS ONLY LOW
70S EAST IF CLOUDS PERSIST.

NEXT WAVE SLIDES DOWN THE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY WITH A
POSSIBLE FADING MCS ON THE DOORSTEP ACROSS THE NW EARLY ON BEFORE
IT WEAKENS CROSSING THE RIDGES. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE LOW ON THIS
OUTCOME GIVEN GUIDANCE UNCERTAINTY BUT DOES APPEAR BETTER COVERAGE
IN ORDER ESPCLY NW EARLY AND THEN AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AS MAY
SEE MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE BANDS FORM ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
PENDING TIMING. VERY STRONG NW JET ALOFT FOR LATE AUGUST WOULD
SUPPORT MORE LINEAR BOWING TYPE STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF
THIS COVERAGE TO CROSS THE BLUE RIDGE DESPITE THE DEEP DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT IF CAN GET ENOUGH BREAKS TO ENHANCE AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER MODELS REMAIN DRIER WITH MORE DEBRIS CLOUDS
AROUND IN THE MORNING...AND A MIXED OUT SCENARIO IN THE AFTERNOON
WHICH WOULD AGAIN LIMIT POPS TO THE NORTH/NW. THUS TRENDED IN THAT
DIRECTION WITH LIKELYS EXTREME NW AND CHANCE ELSW. HIGH TEMPS
REMAIN QUITE IFFY AS WARM ENOUGH ALOFT TO ZIP INTO THE 90S EAST
GIVEN MORE SUN WHILE COULD GET STUCK IN THE 70S FAR WEST IF SHRA
ARRIVES EARLIER AND PERSISTS. FOR NOW USED A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET
MOS WITH SUPPORT FROM THE EARLIER SLIGHTLY COOLER EC 2 METER
VALUES.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT THURSDAY...

SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN CHANGING TO A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF IN THE WEST
AND RIDGE IN THE EAST. BY SUNDAY THE 591 DM CENTER OF THE 500 MB
RIDGE IS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

BEST PUSH OF THE COLD FRONT AND DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHWEST
WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. UNTIL THEN FORECAST AREA REMAINS
IN BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH THE BEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
DEPENDENT ON UPSTREAM STORMS AND TIMING OF SHORT WAVES. WILL HAVE
HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...A SURFACE LOW TRACKS DOWN THE EAST
COAST. BY SATURDAY THE LOW WILL BE OVER THE CAROLINA COAST WHICH
WILL HELP BRING SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
AROUND TO THE EAST. THIS LOW MOVES WELL OFFSHORE AS THE WEDGE
STRENGTHENS ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

SINCE FORECAST AREA WILL BE WELL INTO THE WEDGE ON SUNDAY HAVE KEPT
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW MOST GUIDANCE.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1130 AM EDT THURSDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION OVER NEW
ENGLAND TO WEDGE WELL DOWN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. SUPPORT FOR THE WEDGE WEAKENS BY TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA.
LARGE 500 MB RIDGE ALOFT WILL COVER MUCH OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE DEEPEST MOISTURE SHIFTS SOUTHWEST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WILL HAVE THESE DAYS DRY IN THE FORECAST. THE
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION RETURNS TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO BE
WARMEST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE WEDGE GONE AND MORE
POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN WARM 850 MB TEMPERATURES.
&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT THURSDAY...

OVERALL VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON UNDER WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE AND NW FLOW ALOFT. WILL GRADUALLY SEE CU FIELDS
INCREASE AS WELL AS ISOLATED CONVECTION FROM WEST TO EAST BUT
THINKING CIGS TO REMAIN VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY WESTERN SHRA/TSRA.
APPEARS BEST CHANCE AT SEEING A TSRA EARLY WILL BE AROUND KBLF
WITH UPSTREAM COVERAGE APPROACHING...AND THEN MID/LATE AFTERNOON
AT KLWB. FARTHER EAST...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR ANY
ISOLATED EARLY COVERAGE MIGHT GET AND THEN WHETHER OR NOT
SOMETHING MORE ORGANIZED DEVELOPS OVER WV/OH AND TRANSLATES
SE...CROSSING MUCH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. LATEST GUIDANCE
KEEPS THE MAJORITY TO THE WEST AND NORTH PER LACK OF CONSOLIDATION
OF SHRA/TSRA. FOR NOW PLAN TO KEEP AT LEAST A TEMPO MENTION FOR A
PERIOD OF MVFR IN TSRA FOR THE WV TERMINALS BETWEEN 19-21Z/3-5PM
THEN INTO THE VA TERMINALS BETWEEN 21-24Z/5-8PM. GUSTY WINDS ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE STORMS PER INVERTED V TYPE SOUNDINGS SO
INCLUDED MENTION.

EXPECT WILL GET A BREAK IN STORMS BY MIDNIGHT FOR THE MOST PART
BEFORE ANOTHER IMPULSE APPROACHES EARLY FRIDAY IN THE INCREASING
NW FLOW ALOFT. SHOULD AGAIN SEE AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN FOG PENDING
DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER LATE WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS AGAIN AT KLWB
AND ANY SPOT THAT SEES A DOWNPOUR THROUGH THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE
STRONGER FLOW ALOFT...ADDED SHRA COULD DEVELOP BEFORE DAWN WEST
AND STREAM SE ESPCLY ALONG THE KBLF-KDAN CORRIDOR FRIDAY MORNING
SO INCLUDED A VCSH IN THOSE LOCATIONS FOR NOW. ELSW APPEARS LOTS
OF MVFR/VFR STRATO-CU CIGS UNDER MID DECK WHICH SHOULD SLOWLY
ERODE INTO VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON AFTER EARLY FOG FADES.

EXTENDED AVIATION...

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH PERIODICALLY AND
INTERACTING WITH A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO
THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR...EXPECT STRATUS AND FOG
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR MOST
PRONOUNCED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 9AM EACH DAY. MODELS ARE INDICATED
THAT A DEEPER EASTERLY SORT OF WIND FLOW WILL SETUP FOR THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS SUGGEST THAT LOW CIGS MAY PERSIST EVEN
DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD
MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND DUE TO MOISTURE
BANKING UP AGAINST THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. BETTER PUNCH
OF DRY AIR WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NE MAY BE
ENOUGH WITH MIXING/HEATING TO ALLOW FOR INCREASING VFR MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY UNDER MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.
&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE ASOS AT LYNCHBURG (LYH) VA REMAINS PARTIALLY INOP DUE TO A
BOARD FAILURE. PARTS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ORDERED WITH THE
RETURN OF COMPLETE SERVICE UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/PM
EQUIPMENT...JH




000
FXUS61 KRNK 211933
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
333 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE GULF COAST
WILL KEEP NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS INTO SATURDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING THE FRONT SHOULD
BRING DRIER AND COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM EDT THURSDAY...

DESPITE DECENT INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...CONVECTION
REMAINS LIMITED VIA WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT AND LOWER THETA-E UNDER
FAINT LOW LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER DECENT NW
FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE WITH ANOTHER UPSTREAM MID LEVEL WAVE
APPROACHING FROM OHIO WHICH IS CURRENTLY PRECEDED BY A WEAK
OUTFLOW DRIVEN BAND OF SHRA/TSRA. MODELS REMAIN INCONSISTENT IN
WHERE TO BRING BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS INTO THIS EVENING BUT
APPEARS SOME CONSENSUS ON SPILLING THE CURRENT MCS FEATURE INTO
WEST VA THROUGH SUNSET BEFORE IT FADES WITH LOSS OF HEATING. THUS
WILL MAINTAIN LOW LIKELY TO HIGH CHANCE POPS FAR NW THIRD GIVEN
MORE MORE EAST THAN SE MOVEMENT OF THIS FEATURE...WITH A QUICK
DROPOFF IN CHANCES HEADING EAST INTO THE DOWNSLOPING.

THIS IMPULSE QUICKLY PASSES/WEAKENS AFTER SUNSET GIVING WAY TO
INCREASING NW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE
RIDGE LATE. ALTHOUGH FOCUS WILL BE LIMITED AFTER LOSS OF
HEATING...SOME CONCERN WITH DEGREE OF LEFTOVER INSTABILITY AND
SOME ADDED TSRA DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIXING FADES ESPCLY IF COVERAGE
IS LESS EARLY ON. THIS SUPPORTS HOLDING ON TO SOME LOW POPS INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN OVER THE WEST
TOWARD DAYBREAK AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND
BUT MAINLY IN THE VALLEYS GIVEN CURRENT MIXING/WARMTH AND
OVERNIGHT CLOUDS. OTRW LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S BUT PERHAPS ONLY LOW
70S EAST IF CLOUDS PERSIST.

NEXT WAVE SLIDES DOWN THE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY WITH A
POSSIBLE FADING MCS ON THE DOORSTEP ACROSS THE NW EARLY ON BEFORE
IT WEAKENS CROSSING THE RIDGES. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE LOW ON THIS
OUTCOME GIVEN GUIDANCE UNCERTAINTY BUT DOES APPEAR BETTER COVERAGE
IN ORDER ESPCLY NW EARLY AND THEN AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AS MAY
SEE MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE BANDS FORM ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
PENDING TIMING. VERY STRONG NW JET ALOFT FOR LATE AUGUST WOULD
SUPPORT MORE LINEAR BOWING TYPE STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF
THIS COVERAGE TO CROSS THE BLUE RIDGE DESPITE THE DEEP DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT IF CAN GET ENOUGH BREAKS TO ENHANCE AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER MODELS REMAIN DRIER WITH MORE DEBRIS CLOUDS
AROUND IN THE MORNING...AND A MIXED OUT SCENARIO IN THE AFTERNOON
WHICH WOULD AGAIN LIMIT POPS TO THE NORTH/NW. THUS TRENDED IN THAT
DIRECTION WITH LIKELYS EXTREME NW AND CHANCE ELSW. HIGH TEMPS
REMAIN QUITE IFFY AS WARM ENOUGH ALOFT TO ZIP INTO THE 90S EAST
GIVEN MORE SUN WHILE COULD GET STUCK IN THE 70S FAR WEST IF SHRA
ARRIVES EARLIER AND PERSISTS. FOR NOW USED A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET
MOS WITH SUPPORT FROM THE EARLIER SLIGHTLY COOLER EC 2 METER
VALUES.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT THURSDAY...

SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN CHANGING TO A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF IN THE WEST
AND RIDGE IN THE EAST. BY SUNDAY THE 591 DM CENTER OF THE 500 MB
RIDGE IS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

BEST PUSH OF THE COLD FRONT AND DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHWEST
WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. UNTIL THEN FORECAST AREA REMAINS
IN BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH THE BEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
DEPENDENT ON UPSTREAM STORMS AND TIMING OF SHORT WAVES. WILL HAVE
HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...A SURFACE LOW TRACKS DOWN THE EAST
COAST. BY SATURDAY THE LOW WILL BE OVER THE CAROLINA COAST WHICH
WILL HELP BRING SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
AROUND TO THE EAST. THIS LOW MOVES WELL OFFSHORE AS THE WEDGE
STRENGTHENS ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

SINCE FORECAST AREA WILL BE WELL INTO THE WEDGE ON SUNDAY HAVE KEPT
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW MOST GUIDANCE.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1130 AM EDT THURSDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION OVER NEW
ENGLAND TO WEDGE WELL DOWN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. SUPPORT FOR THE WEDGE WEAKENS BY TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA.
LARGE 500 MB RIDGE ALOFT WILL COVER MUCH OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE DEEPEST MOISTURE SHIFTS SOUTHWEST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WILL HAVE THESE DAYS DRY IN THE FORECAST. THE
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION RETURNS TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO BE
WARMEST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE WEDGE GONE AND MORE
POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN WARM 850 MB TEMPERATURES.
&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT THURSDAY...

OVERALL VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON UNDER WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE AND NW FLOW ALOFT. WILL GRADUALLY SEE CU FIELDS
INCREASE AS WELL AS ISOLATED CONVECTION FROM WEST TO EAST BUT
THINKING CIGS TO REMAIN VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY WESTERN SHRA/TSRA.
APPEARS BEST CHANCE AT SEEING A TSRA EARLY WILL BE AROUND KBLF
WITH UPSTREAM COVERAGE APPROACHING...AND THEN MID/LATE AFTERNOON
AT KLWB. FARTHER EAST...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR ANY
ISOLATED EARLY COVERAGE MIGHT GET AND THEN WHETHER OR NOT
SOMETHING MORE ORGANIZED DEVELOPS OVER WV/OH AND TRANSLATES
SE...CROSSING MUCH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. LATEST GUIDANCE
KEEPS THE MAJORITY TO THE WEST AND NORTH PER LACK OF CONSOLIDATION
OF SHRA/TSRA. FOR NOW PLAN TO KEEP AT LEAST A TEMPO MENTION FOR A
PERIOD OF MVFR IN TSRA FOR THE WV TERMINALS BETWEEN 19-21Z/3-5PM
THEN INTO THE VA TERMINALS BETWEEN 21-24Z/5-8PM. GUSTY WINDS ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE STORMS PER INVERTED V TYPE SOUNDINGS SO
INCLUDED MENTION.

EXPECT WILL GET A BREAK IN STORMS BY MIDNIGHT FOR THE MOST PART
BEFORE ANOTHER IMPULSE APPROACHES EARLY FRIDAY IN THE INCREASING
NW FLOW ALOFT. SHOULD AGAIN SEE AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN FOG PENDING
DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER LATE WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS AGAIN AT KLWB
AND ANY SPOT THAT SEES A DOWNPOUR THROUGH THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE
STRONGER FLOW ALOFT...ADDED SHRA COULD DEVELOP BEFORE DAWN WEST
AND STREAM SE ESPCLY ALONG THE KBLF-KDAN CORRIDOR FRIDAY MORNING
SO INCLUDED A VCSH IN THOSE LOCATIONS FOR NOW. ELSW APPEARS LOTS
OF MVFR/VFR STRATO-CU CIGS UNDER MID DECK WHICH SHOULD SLOWLY
ERODE INTO VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON AFTER EARLY FOG FADES.

EXTENDED AVIATION...

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH PERIODICALLY AND
INTERACTING WITH A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO
THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR...EXPECT STRATUS AND FOG
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR MOST
PRONOUNCED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 9AM EACH DAY. MODELS ARE INDICATED
THAT A DEEPER EASTERLY SORT OF WIND FLOW WILL SETUP FOR THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS SUGGEST THAT LOW CIGS MAY PERSIST EVEN
DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD
MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND DUE TO MOISTURE
BANKING UP AGAINST THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. BETTER PUNCH
OF DRY AIR WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NE MAY BE
ENOUGH WITH MIXING/HEATING TO ALLOW FOR INCREASING VFR MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY UNDER MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.
&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE ASOS AT LYNCHBURG (LYH) VA REMAINS PARTIALLY INOP DUE TO A
BOARD FAILURE. PARTS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ORDERED WITH THE
RETURN OF COMPLETE SERVICE UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/PM
EQUIPMENT...JH




000
FXUS61 KRNK 211933
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
333 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE GULF COAST
WILL KEEP NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS INTO SATURDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING THE FRONT SHOULD
BRING DRIER AND COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM EDT THURSDAY...

DESPITE DECENT INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...CONVECTION
REMAINS LIMITED VIA WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT AND LOWER THETA-E UNDER
FAINT LOW LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER DECENT NW
FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE WITH ANOTHER UPSTREAM MID LEVEL WAVE
APPROACHING FROM OHIO WHICH IS CURRENTLY PRECEDED BY A WEAK
OUTFLOW DRIVEN BAND OF SHRA/TSRA. MODELS REMAIN INCONSISTENT IN
WHERE TO BRING BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS INTO THIS EVENING BUT
APPEARS SOME CONSENSUS ON SPILLING THE CURRENT MCS FEATURE INTO
WEST VA THROUGH SUNSET BEFORE IT FADES WITH LOSS OF HEATING. THUS
WILL MAINTAIN LOW LIKELY TO HIGH CHANCE POPS FAR NW THIRD GIVEN
MORE MORE EAST THAN SE MOVEMENT OF THIS FEATURE...WITH A QUICK
DROPOFF IN CHANCES HEADING EAST INTO THE DOWNSLOPING.

THIS IMPULSE QUICKLY PASSES/WEAKENS AFTER SUNSET GIVING WAY TO
INCREASING NW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE
RIDGE LATE. ALTHOUGH FOCUS WILL BE LIMITED AFTER LOSS OF
HEATING...SOME CONCERN WITH DEGREE OF LEFTOVER INSTABILITY AND
SOME ADDED TSRA DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIXING FADES ESPCLY IF COVERAGE
IS LESS EARLY ON. THIS SUPPORTS HOLDING ON TO SOME LOW POPS INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN OVER THE WEST
TOWARD DAYBREAK AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND
BUT MAINLY IN THE VALLEYS GIVEN CURRENT MIXING/WARMTH AND
OVERNIGHT CLOUDS. OTRW LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S BUT PERHAPS ONLY LOW
70S EAST IF CLOUDS PERSIST.

NEXT WAVE SLIDES DOWN THE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY WITH A
POSSIBLE FADING MCS ON THE DOORSTEP ACROSS THE NW EARLY ON BEFORE
IT WEAKENS CROSSING THE RIDGES. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE LOW ON THIS
OUTCOME GIVEN GUIDANCE UNCERTAINTY BUT DOES APPEAR BETTER COVERAGE
IN ORDER ESPCLY NW EARLY AND THEN AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AS MAY
SEE MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE BANDS FORM ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
PENDING TIMING. VERY STRONG NW JET ALOFT FOR LATE AUGUST WOULD
SUPPORT MORE LINEAR BOWING TYPE STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF
THIS COVERAGE TO CROSS THE BLUE RIDGE DESPITE THE DEEP DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT IF CAN GET ENOUGH BREAKS TO ENHANCE AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER MODELS REMAIN DRIER WITH MORE DEBRIS CLOUDS
AROUND IN THE MORNING...AND A MIXED OUT SCENARIO IN THE AFTERNOON
WHICH WOULD AGAIN LIMIT POPS TO THE NORTH/NW. THUS TRENDED IN THAT
DIRECTION WITH LIKELYS EXTREME NW AND CHANCE ELSW. HIGH TEMPS
REMAIN QUITE IFFY AS WARM ENOUGH ALOFT TO ZIP INTO THE 90S EAST
GIVEN MORE SUN WHILE COULD GET STUCK IN THE 70S FAR WEST IF SHRA
ARRIVES EARLIER AND PERSISTS. FOR NOW USED A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET
MOS WITH SUPPORT FROM THE EARLIER SLIGHTLY COOLER EC 2 METER
VALUES.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT THURSDAY...

SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN CHANGING TO A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF IN THE WEST
AND RIDGE IN THE EAST. BY SUNDAY THE 591 DM CENTER OF THE 500 MB
RIDGE IS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

BEST PUSH OF THE COLD FRONT AND DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHWEST
WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. UNTIL THEN FORECAST AREA REMAINS
IN BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH THE BEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
DEPENDENT ON UPSTREAM STORMS AND TIMING OF SHORT WAVES. WILL HAVE
HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...A SURFACE LOW TRACKS DOWN THE EAST
COAST. BY SATURDAY THE LOW WILL BE OVER THE CAROLINA COAST WHICH
WILL HELP BRING SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
AROUND TO THE EAST. THIS LOW MOVES WELL OFFSHORE AS THE WEDGE
STRENGTHENS ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

SINCE FORECAST AREA WILL BE WELL INTO THE WEDGE ON SUNDAY HAVE KEPT
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW MOST GUIDANCE.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1130 AM EDT THURSDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION OVER NEW
ENGLAND TO WEDGE WELL DOWN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. SUPPORT FOR THE WEDGE WEAKENS BY TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA.
LARGE 500 MB RIDGE ALOFT WILL COVER MUCH OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE DEEPEST MOISTURE SHIFTS SOUTHWEST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WILL HAVE THESE DAYS DRY IN THE FORECAST. THE
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION RETURNS TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO BE
WARMEST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE WEDGE GONE AND MORE
POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN WARM 850 MB TEMPERATURES.
&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT THURSDAY...

OVERALL VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON UNDER WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE AND NW FLOW ALOFT. WILL GRADUALLY SEE CU FIELDS
INCREASE AS WELL AS ISOLATED CONVECTION FROM WEST TO EAST BUT
THINKING CIGS TO REMAIN VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY WESTERN SHRA/TSRA.
APPEARS BEST CHANCE AT SEEING A TSRA EARLY WILL BE AROUND KBLF
WITH UPSTREAM COVERAGE APPROACHING...AND THEN MID/LATE AFTERNOON
AT KLWB. FARTHER EAST...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR ANY
ISOLATED EARLY COVERAGE MIGHT GET AND THEN WHETHER OR NOT
SOMETHING MORE ORGANIZED DEVELOPS OVER WV/OH AND TRANSLATES
SE...CROSSING MUCH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. LATEST GUIDANCE
KEEPS THE MAJORITY TO THE WEST AND NORTH PER LACK OF CONSOLIDATION
OF SHRA/TSRA. FOR NOW PLAN TO KEEP AT LEAST A TEMPO MENTION FOR A
PERIOD OF MVFR IN TSRA FOR THE WV TERMINALS BETWEEN 19-21Z/3-5PM
THEN INTO THE VA TERMINALS BETWEEN 21-24Z/5-8PM. GUSTY WINDS ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE STORMS PER INVERTED V TYPE SOUNDINGS SO
INCLUDED MENTION.

EXPECT WILL GET A BREAK IN STORMS BY MIDNIGHT FOR THE MOST PART
BEFORE ANOTHER IMPULSE APPROACHES EARLY FRIDAY IN THE INCREASING
NW FLOW ALOFT. SHOULD AGAIN SEE AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN FOG PENDING
DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER LATE WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS AGAIN AT KLWB
AND ANY SPOT THAT SEES A DOWNPOUR THROUGH THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE
STRONGER FLOW ALOFT...ADDED SHRA COULD DEVELOP BEFORE DAWN WEST
AND STREAM SE ESPCLY ALONG THE KBLF-KDAN CORRIDOR FRIDAY MORNING
SO INCLUDED A VCSH IN THOSE LOCATIONS FOR NOW. ELSW APPEARS LOTS
OF MVFR/VFR STRATO-CU CIGS UNDER MID DECK WHICH SHOULD SLOWLY
ERODE INTO VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON AFTER EARLY FOG FADES.

EXTENDED AVIATION...

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH PERIODICALLY AND
INTERACTING WITH A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO
THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR...EXPECT STRATUS AND FOG
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR MOST
PRONOUNCED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 9AM EACH DAY. MODELS ARE INDICATED
THAT A DEEPER EASTERLY SORT OF WIND FLOW WILL SETUP FOR THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS SUGGEST THAT LOW CIGS MAY PERSIST EVEN
DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD
MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND DUE TO MOISTURE
BANKING UP AGAINST THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. BETTER PUNCH
OF DRY AIR WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NE MAY BE
ENOUGH WITH MIXING/HEATING TO ALLOW FOR INCREASING VFR MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY UNDER MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.
&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE ASOS AT LYNCHBURG (LYH) VA REMAINS PARTIALLY INOP DUE TO A
BOARD FAILURE. PARTS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ORDERED WITH THE
RETURN OF COMPLETE SERVICE UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/PM
EQUIPMENT...JH




000
FXUS61 KRNK 211933
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
333 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE GULF COAST
WILL KEEP NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS INTO SATURDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING THE FRONT SHOULD
BRING DRIER AND COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM EDT THURSDAY...

DESPITE DECENT INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...CONVECTION
REMAINS LIMITED VIA WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT AND LOWER THETA-E UNDER
FAINT LOW LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER DECENT NW
FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE WITH ANOTHER UPSTREAM MID LEVEL WAVE
APPROACHING FROM OHIO WHICH IS CURRENTLY PRECEDED BY A WEAK
OUTFLOW DRIVEN BAND OF SHRA/TSRA. MODELS REMAIN INCONSISTENT IN
WHERE TO BRING BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS INTO THIS EVENING BUT
APPEARS SOME CONSENSUS ON SPILLING THE CURRENT MCS FEATURE INTO
WEST VA THROUGH SUNSET BEFORE IT FADES WITH LOSS OF HEATING. THUS
WILL MAINTAIN LOW LIKELY TO HIGH CHANCE POPS FAR NW THIRD GIVEN
MORE MORE EAST THAN SE MOVEMENT OF THIS FEATURE...WITH A QUICK
DROPOFF IN CHANCES HEADING EAST INTO THE DOWNSLOPING.

THIS IMPULSE QUICKLY PASSES/WEAKENS AFTER SUNSET GIVING WAY TO
INCREASING NW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE
RIDGE LATE. ALTHOUGH FOCUS WILL BE LIMITED AFTER LOSS OF
HEATING...SOME CONCERN WITH DEGREE OF LEFTOVER INSTABILITY AND
SOME ADDED TSRA DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIXING FADES ESPCLY IF COVERAGE
IS LESS EARLY ON. THIS SUPPORTS HOLDING ON TO SOME LOW POPS INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN OVER THE WEST
TOWARD DAYBREAK AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND
BUT MAINLY IN THE VALLEYS GIVEN CURRENT MIXING/WARMTH AND
OVERNIGHT CLOUDS. OTRW LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S BUT PERHAPS ONLY LOW
70S EAST IF CLOUDS PERSIST.

NEXT WAVE SLIDES DOWN THE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY WITH A
POSSIBLE FADING MCS ON THE DOORSTEP ACROSS THE NW EARLY ON BEFORE
IT WEAKENS CROSSING THE RIDGES. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE LOW ON THIS
OUTCOME GIVEN GUIDANCE UNCERTAINTY BUT DOES APPEAR BETTER COVERAGE
IN ORDER ESPCLY NW EARLY AND THEN AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AS MAY
SEE MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE BANDS FORM ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
PENDING TIMING. VERY STRONG NW JET ALOFT FOR LATE AUGUST WOULD
SUPPORT MORE LINEAR BOWING TYPE STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF
THIS COVERAGE TO CROSS THE BLUE RIDGE DESPITE THE DEEP DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT IF CAN GET ENOUGH BREAKS TO ENHANCE AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER MODELS REMAIN DRIER WITH MORE DEBRIS CLOUDS
AROUND IN THE MORNING...AND A MIXED OUT SCENARIO IN THE AFTERNOON
WHICH WOULD AGAIN LIMIT POPS TO THE NORTH/NW. THUS TRENDED IN THAT
DIRECTION WITH LIKELYS EXTREME NW AND CHANCE ELSW. HIGH TEMPS
REMAIN QUITE IFFY AS WARM ENOUGH ALOFT TO ZIP INTO THE 90S EAST
GIVEN MORE SUN WHILE COULD GET STUCK IN THE 70S FAR WEST IF SHRA
ARRIVES EARLIER AND PERSISTS. FOR NOW USED A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET
MOS WITH SUPPORT FROM THE EARLIER SLIGHTLY COOLER EC 2 METER
VALUES.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT THURSDAY...

SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN CHANGING TO A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF IN THE WEST
AND RIDGE IN THE EAST. BY SUNDAY THE 591 DM CENTER OF THE 500 MB
RIDGE IS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

BEST PUSH OF THE COLD FRONT AND DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHWEST
WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. UNTIL THEN FORECAST AREA REMAINS
IN BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH THE BEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
DEPENDENT ON UPSTREAM STORMS AND TIMING OF SHORT WAVES. WILL HAVE
HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...A SURFACE LOW TRACKS DOWN THE EAST
COAST. BY SATURDAY THE LOW WILL BE OVER THE CAROLINA COAST WHICH
WILL HELP BRING SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
AROUND TO THE EAST. THIS LOW MOVES WELL OFFSHORE AS THE WEDGE
STRENGTHENS ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

SINCE FORECAST AREA WILL BE WELL INTO THE WEDGE ON SUNDAY HAVE KEPT
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW MOST GUIDANCE.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1130 AM EDT THURSDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION OVER NEW
ENGLAND TO WEDGE WELL DOWN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. SUPPORT FOR THE WEDGE WEAKENS BY TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA.
LARGE 500 MB RIDGE ALOFT WILL COVER MUCH OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE DEEPEST MOISTURE SHIFTS SOUTHWEST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WILL HAVE THESE DAYS DRY IN THE FORECAST. THE
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION RETURNS TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO BE
WARMEST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE WEDGE GONE AND MORE
POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN WARM 850 MB TEMPERATURES.
&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT THURSDAY...

OVERALL VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON UNDER WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE AND NW FLOW ALOFT. WILL GRADUALLY SEE CU FIELDS
INCREASE AS WELL AS ISOLATED CONVECTION FROM WEST TO EAST BUT
THINKING CIGS TO REMAIN VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY WESTERN SHRA/TSRA.
APPEARS BEST CHANCE AT SEEING A TSRA EARLY WILL BE AROUND KBLF
WITH UPSTREAM COVERAGE APPROACHING...AND THEN MID/LATE AFTERNOON
AT KLWB. FARTHER EAST...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR ANY
ISOLATED EARLY COVERAGE MIGHT GET AND THEN WHETHER OR NOT
SOMETHING MORE ORGANIZED DEVELOPS OVER WV/OH AND TRANSLATES
SE...CROSSING MUCH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. LATEST GUIDANCE
KEEPS THE MAJORITY TO THE WEST AND NORTH PER LACK OF CONSOLIDATION
OF SHRA/TSRA. FOR NOW PLAN TO KEEP AT LEAST A TEMPO MENTION FOR A
PERIOD OF MVFR IN TSRA FOR THE WV TERMINALS BETWEEN 19-21Z/3-5PM
THEN INTO THE VA TERMINALS BETWEEN 21-24Z/5-8PM. GUSTY WINDS ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE STORMS PER INVERTED V TYPE SOUNDINGS SO
INCLUDED MENTION.

EXPECT WILL GET A BREAK IN STORMS BY MIDNIGHT FOR THE MOST PART
BEFORE ANOTHER IMPULSE APPROACHES EARLY FRIDAY IN THE INCREASING
NW FLOW ALOFT. SHOULD AGAIN SEE AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN FOG PENDING
DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER LATE WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS AGAIN AT KLWB
AND ANY SPOT THAT SEES A DOWNPOUR THROUGH THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE
STRONGER FLOW ALOFT...ADDED SHRA COULD DEVELOP BEFORE DAWN WEST
AND STREAM SE ESPCLY ALONG THE KBLF-KDAN CORRIDOR FRIDAY MORNING
SO INCLUDED A VCSH IN THOSE LOCATIONS FOR NOW. ELSW APPEARS LOTS
OF MVFR/VFR STRATO-CU CIGS UNDER MID DECK WHICH SHOULD SLOWLY
ERODE INTO VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON AFTER EARLY FOG FADES.

EXTENDED AVIATION...

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH PERIODICALLY AND
INTERACTING WITH A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO
THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR...EXPECT STRATUS AND FOG
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR MOST
PRONOUNCED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 9AM EACH DAY. MODELS ARE INDICATED
THAT A DEEPER EASTERLY SORT OF WIND FLOW WILL SETUP FOR THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS SUGGEST THAT LOW CIGS MAY PERSIST EVEN
DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD
MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND DUE TO MOISTURE
BANKING UP AGAINST THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. BETTER PUNCH
OF DRY AIR WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NE MAY BE
ENOUGH WITH MIXING/HEATING TO ALLOW FOR INCREASING VFR MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY UNDER MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.
&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE ASOS AT LYNCHBURG (LYH) VA REMAINS PARTIALLY INOP DUE TO A
BOARD FAILURE. PARTS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ORDERED WITH THE
RETURN OF COMPLETE SERVICE UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/PM
EQUIPMENT...JH



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KLWX 211839
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
239 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A STATIONARY FRONT WILL WAVER ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AS RIPPLES
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AN WILL TRAVERSE THE FRONT
FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL PUSH IT SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT. HIGH
PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND WILL DOWN DOWN THE EAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISOLD TSTMS HV ALREADY DVLPD IN THE WRN PART OF THE FCST AREA IN
THE SUMMERTIME AIR MASS. MAIN AREA OF PCPN HAS SPENT THE DAY
TRAVERSING ACROSS IN INTO SRN OH ALONG A WARM FNT. THIS WL LKLY
MOVE INTO THE WRN SXN OF THE CWA IN THE 4-5 PM TIMEFRAME...MOVG E
OF THE MTNS THIS EVE. QUSTN WL BE IF IT CAN HOLD TOGETHER - IT
ISN`T TOO IMPRESSIVE ATTM AND HRRR IS EVEN LESS SO AS IT TRIES TO
MOVE TOWARDS THE METROS AFTR 00Z. REGARDING SVR THREAT - PULSE SVR
WOULD BE WORST CASE SCENARIO.

FOG LOOKS TO BE OF LESSER CONCERN TNGT THAN LAST NGT.

LOWS IN THE 60S W OF I-95...L70S E.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...

BNDRY RMNG IN THE AREA FRIDAY WL MOST LKLY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
TSTMS. WL KEEP POPS IN CHC RANGE. AGN SVR THREAT LOOKS LOW - LO
LVL WIND FIELD IS WEAK...CAPE IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. FFG IS
RLTVLY HIGH.

HIGHS IN THE MU80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

AN UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAX WILL DIP THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER BOUT OF ENHANCED RAINFALL. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL RIDGE DOWN THE EAST COAST AS
AN UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN US. THE
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING DOWN INTO THE AREA WILL WORK WITH LOW
PRESSURE OFF OF THE CAROLINA COAST TO BRING ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC BEGINNING SATURDAY MORNING. THE PRIMARY EFFECTS OF THE
INCOMING MARINE AIRMASS WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES. EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY...SUNDAY
AND MONDAY TO ONLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE MORE OVERHEAD BY MONDAY NIGHT AND ONSHORE
FLOW WILL MOSTLY BE SHUT OFF. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
FILL INTO THE AREA TUESDAY...LEADING TO AN TREND TOWARD MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS NEAR 80
ON TUESDAY AND IN THE MID 80S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WITH A
RATHER DRY PROFILE CONVECTION IS UNLIKELY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. THE
NEXT THREAT FOR STORMS ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD BE THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

VFR CONDS XPCTD OUTSIDE OF ANY TSTMS. FOG MAY DVLP AT IAD/CHO/MRB
AFTR MDNGT...BUT NOT XPCTD TO BE AS DENSE AS IT WAS THIS MRNG.
TSTMS AGN PSBL FRI AFTN.

PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AS AN UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX
CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MARINE AIRMASS SETTLES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS XPCTD TO RMN BLO SCA VALUES TNGT/FRI. RW/TRW MAY OCCUR ON
THE WATERS THIS EVE AND AGN FRI AFTN.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THE WIDEST ZONES OF THE
LOWER MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY AND THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT IN BREEZY EASTERLY FLOW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

WATER LVLS ABOUT 3/4 FT ABV ASTRO NORMS. FRI MRNG TIDE WL BE
HIGH...BUT AM NOT ANTICIPATING REACHING CRITERIA ATTM. HOWEVER...
WE ARE WORKING ON A MARGIN OF INCHES. LATER SHIFTS WL MONITOR THE
SITUATION.

THERE COULD BE MORE NUISANCE ISSUES THIS WKND.


&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/CEB







000
FXUS61 KLWX 211839
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
239 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A STATIONARY FRONT WILL WAVER ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AS RIPPLES
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AN WILL TRAVERSE THE FRONT
FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL PUSH IT SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT. HIGH
PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND WILL DOWN DOWN THE EAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISOLD TSTMS HV ALREADY DVLPD IN THE WRN PART OF THE FCST AREA IN
THE SUMMERTIME AIR MASS. MAIN AREA OF PCPN HAS SPENT THE DAY
TRAVERSING ACROSS IN INTO SRN OH ALONG A WARM FNT. THIS WL LKLY
MOVE INTO THE WRN SXN OF THE CWA IN THE 4-5 PM TIMEFRAME...MOVG E
OF THE MTNS THIS EVE. QUSTN WL BE IF IT CAN HOLD TOGETHER - IT
ISN`T TOO IMPRESSIVE ATTM AND HRRR IS EVEN LESS SO AS IT TRIES TO
MOVE TOWARDS THE METROS AFTR 00Z. REGARDING SVR THREAT - PULSE SVR
WOULD BE WORST CASE SCENARIO.

FOG LOOKS TO BE OF LESSER CONCERN TNGT THAN LAST NGT.

LOWS IN THE 60S W OF I-95...L70S E.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...

BNDRY RMNG IN THE AREA FRIDAY WL MOST LKLY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
TSTMS. WL KEEP POPS IN CHC RANGE. AGN SVR THREAT LOOKS LOW - LO
LVL WIND FIELD IS WEAK...CAPE IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. FFG IS
RLTVLY HIGH.

HIGHS IN THE MU80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

AN UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAX WILL DIP THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER BOUT OF ENHANCED RAINFALL. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL RIDGE DOWN THE EAST COAST AS
AN UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN US. THE
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING DOWN INTO THE AREA WILL WORK WITH LOW
PRESSURE OFF OF THE CAROLINA COAST TO BRING ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC BEGINNING SATURDAY MORNING. THE PRIMARY EFFECTS OF THE
INCOMING MARINE AIRMASS WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES. EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY...SUNDAY
AND MONDAY TO ONLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE MORE OVERHEAD BY MONDAY NIGHT AND ONSHORE
FLOW WILL MOSTLY BE SHUT OFF. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
FILL INTO THE AREA TUESDAY...LEADING TO AN TREND TOWARD MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS NEAR 80
ON TUESDAY AND IN THE MID 80S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WITH A
RATHER DRY PROFILE CONVECTION IS UNLIKELY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. THE
NEXT THREAT FOR STORMS ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD BE THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

VFR CONDS XPCTD OUTSIDE OF ANY TSTMS. FOG MAY DVLP AT IAD/CHO/MRB
AFTR MDNGT...BUT NOT XPCTD TO BE AS DENSE AS IT WAS THIS MRNG.
TSTMS AGN PSBL FRI AFTN.

PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AS AN UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX
CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MARINE AIRMASS SETTLES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS XPCTD TO RMN BLO SCA VALUES TNGT/FRI. RW/TRW MAY OCCUR ON
THE WATERS THIS EVE AND AGN FRI AFTN.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THE WIDEST ZONES OF THE
LOWER MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY AND THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT IN BREEZY EASTERLY FLOW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

WATER LVLS ABOUT 3/4 FT ABV ASTRO NORMS. FRI MRNG TIDE WL BE
HIGH...BUT AM NOT ANTICIPATING REACHING CRITERIA ATTM. HOWEVER...
WE ARE WORKING ON A MARGIN OF INCHES. LATER SHIFTS WL MONITOR THE
SITUATION.

THERE COULD BE MORE NUISANCE ISSUES THIS WKND.


&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/CEB







000
FXUS61 KLWX 211839
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
239 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A STATIONARY FRONT WILL WAVER ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AS RIPPLES
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AN WILL TRAVERSE THE FRONT
FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL PUSH IT SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT. HIGH
PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND WILL DOWN DOWN THE EAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISOLD TSTMS HV ALREADY DVLPD IN THE WRN PART OF THE FCST AREA IN
THE SUMMERTIME AIR MASS. MAIN AREA OF PCPN HAS SPENT THE DAY
TRAVERSING ACROSS IN INTO SRN OH ALONG A WARM FNT. THIS WL LKLY
MOVE INTO THE WRN SXN OF THE CWA IN THE 4-5 PM TIMEFRAME...MOVG E
OF THE MTNS THIS EVE. QUSTN WL BE IF IT CAN HOLD TOGETHER - IT
ISN`T TOO IMPRESSIVE ATTM AND HRRR IS EVEN LESS SO AS IT TRIES TO
MOVE TOWARDS THE METROS AFTR 00Z. REGARDING SVR THREAT - PULSE SVR
WOULD BE WORST CASE SCENARIO.

FOG LOOKS TO BE OF LESSER CONCERN TNGT THAN LAST NGT.

LOWS IN THE 60S W OF I-95...L70S E.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...

BNDRY RMNG IN THE AREA FRIDAY WL MOST LKLY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
TSTMS. WL KEEP POPS IN CHC RANGE. AGN SVR THREAT LOOKS LOW - LO
LVL WIND FIELD IS WEAK...CAPE IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. FFG IS
RLTVLY HIGH.

HIGHS IN THE MU80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

AN UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAX WILL DIP THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER BOUT OF ENHANCED RAINFALL. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL RIDGE DOWN THE EAST COAST AS
AN UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN US. THE
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING DOWN INTO THE AREA WILL WORK WITH LOW
PRESSURE OFF OF THE CAROLINA COAST TO BRING ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC BEGINNING SATURDAY MORNING. THE PRIMARY EFFECTS OF THE
INCOMING MARINE AIRMASS WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES. EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY...SUNDAY
AND MONDAY TO ONLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE MORE OVERHEAD BY MONDAY NIGHT AND ONSHORE
FLOW WILL MOSTLY BE SHUT OFF. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
FILL INTO THE AREA TUESDAY...LEADING TO AN TREND TOWARD MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS NEAR 80
ON TUESDAY AND IN THE MID 80S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WITH A
RATHER DRY PROFILE CONVECTION IS UNLIKELY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. THE
NEXT THREAT FOR STORMS ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD BE THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

VFR CONDS XPCTD OUTSIDE OF ANY TSTMS. FOG MAY DVLP AT IAD/CHO/MRB
AFTR MDNGT...BUT NOT XPCTD TO BE AS DENSE AS IT WAS THIS MRNG.
TSTMS AGN PSBL FRI AFTN.

PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AS AN UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX
CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MARINE AIRMASS SETTLES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS XPCTD TO RMN BLO SCA VALUES TNGT/FRI. RW/TRW MAY OCCUR ON
THE WATERS THIS EVE AND AGN FRI AFTN.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THE WIDEST ZONES OF THE
LOWER MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY AND THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT IN BREEZY EASTERLY FLOW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

WATER LVLS ABOUT 3/4 FT ABV ASTRO NORMS. FRI MRNG TIDE WL BE
HIGH...BUT AM NOT ANTICIPATING REACHING CRITERIA ATTM. HOWEVER...
WE ARE WORKING ON A MARGIN OF INCHES. LATER SHIFTS WL MONITOR THE
SITUATION.

THERE COULD BE MORE NUISANCE ISSUES THIS WKND.


&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/CEB







000
FXUS61 KLWX 211839
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
239 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A STATIONARY FRONT WILL WAVER ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AS RIPPLES
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AN WILL TRAVERSE THE FRONT
FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL PUSH IT SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT. HIGH
PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND WILL DOWN DOWN THE EAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISOLD TSTMS HV ALREADY DVLPD IN THE WRN PART OF THE FCST AREA IN
THE SUMMERTIME AIR MASS. MAIN AREA OF PCPN HAS SPENT THE DAY
TRAVERSING ACROSS IN INTO SRN OH ALONG A WARM FNT. THIS WL LKLY
MOVE INTO THE WRN SXN OF THE CWA IN THE 4-5 PM TIMEFRAME...MOVG E
OF THE MTNS THIS EVE. QUSTN WL BE IF IT CAN HOLD TOGETHER - IT
ISN`T TOO IMPRESSIVE ATTM AND HRRR IS EVEN LESS SO AS IT TRIES TO
MOVE TOWARDS THE METROS AFTR 00Z. REGARDING SVR THREAT - PULSE SVR
WOULD BE WORST CASE SCENARIO.

FOG LOOKS TO BE OF LESSER CONCERN TNGT THAN LAST NGT.

LOWS IN THE 60S W OF I-95...L70S E.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...

BNDRY RMNG IN THE AREA FRIDAY WL MOST LKLY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
TSTMS. WL KEEP POPS IN CHC RANGE. AGN SVR THREAT LOOKS LOW - LO
LVL WIND FIELD IS WEAK...CAPE IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. FFG IS
RLTVLY HIGH.

HIGHS IN THE MU80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

AN UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAX WILL DIP THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER BOUT OF ENHANCED RAINFALL. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL RIDGE DOWN THE EAST COAST AS
AN UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN US. THE
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING DOWN INTO THE AREA WILL WORK WITH LOW
PRESSURE OFF OF THE CAROLINA COAST TO BRING ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC BEGINNING SATURDAY MORNING. THE PRIMARY EFFECTS OF THE
INCOMING MARINE AIRMASS WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES. EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY...SUNDAY
AND MONDAY TO ONLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE MORE OVERHEAD BY MONDAY NIGHT AND ONSHORE
FLOW WILL MOSTLY BE SHUT OFF. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
FILL INTO THE AREA TUESDAY...LEADING TO AN TREND TOWARD MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS NEAR 80
ON TUESDAY AND IN THE MID 80S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WITH A
RATHER DRY PROFILE CONVECTION IS UNLIKELY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. THE
NEXT THREAT FOR STORMS ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD BE THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

VFR CONDS XPCTD OUTSIDE OF ANY TSTMS. FOG MAY DVLP AT IAD/CHO/MRB
AFTR MDNGT...BUT NOT XPCTD TO BE AS DENSE AS IT WAS THIS MRNG.
TSTMS AGN PSBL FRI AFTN.

PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AS AN UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX
CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MARINE AIRMASS SETTLES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS XPCTD TO RMN BLO SCA VALUES TNGT/FRI. RW/TRW MAY OCCUR ON
THE WATERS THIS EVE AND AGN FRI AFTN.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THE WIDEST ZONES OF THE
LOWER MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY AND THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT IN BREEZY EASTERLY FLOW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

WATER LVLS ABOUT 3/4 FT ABV ASTRO NORMS. FRI MRNG TIDE WL BE
HIGH...BUT AM NOT ANTICIPATING REACHING CRITERIA ATTM. HOWEVER...
WE ARE WORKING ON A MARGIN OF INCHES. LATER SHIFTS WL MONITOR THE
SITUATION.

THERE COULD BE MORE NUISANCE ISSUES THIS WKND.


&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/CEB







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 211745
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
145 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND IS SLOW TO
BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WARM FRONT HAS STALLED OVR THE FA...AND WILL RMN NRLY STATIONARY
TDA. EXPECT VRB CLDS TO PCLDY AGN TDA AS MORNING FOG/STRATUS
DISSIPATES. MOST OF THE DAY XPCD TO BE PCPN FREE.
HEATING...MODEST DEWPTS (FOR MID AUG) AND CONVERGENCE INVOF
STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY (OVR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF FA) XPCD TO RESULT
IN ISOLD TO PSBLY SCT CONVECTION BY LT THIS AFTN/EVE. WEAKENING
S/W FM THE WNW MAY BRING CONVECTION INTO FAR WNW AREAS LT IN THE
DAY AS WELL. HI TEMPS FM THE M80S AT THE CST...TO THE U80S TO L90S
INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NW FLO ALOFT RMNS FM TNGT INTO THE WKND...W/ SERIES OF WK IMPULSES
PASSING THROUGH THE RGN. INITIAL IMPULSE (WKNG S/W) MAY KEEP AT
LEAST ISOLD CONVECTION OVR THE FA TNGT. A 2ND WK S/W PUSHES
THROUGH THE FA ON FRI WILL PTNTL FOR ADDITIONAL ISOLD/SCT
CONVECTION BY AFTN/EVE HRS.

A MORE VIGOROUS WAVE DROPS ACROSS THE REGION FRI NGT INTO SAT AS
SFC BNDRY RMNS OVR THE FA. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE BEST CHC OF AND
GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
DURING THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD DUE TO MORE FAVORABLE/STRONGER UPPER
JET SUPPORT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY BEGINS
TO PUSH S TOWARD MDATLC RGN BY LT IN THE DAY. THIS WILL PUSH THE
REMNANT FRONT BACK S OF THE AREA.

HI TEMPS FRI MNLY IN THE M/U80S FRI...THEN FM THE L/M80S ON SAT
(PSBLY U70S ALG THE ATLC BEACHES ON THE ERN SHORE). LO TEMPS MNLY
BE IN THE U60S TO L70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DECREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP AND NEAR SEASONABLE...LATE SUMMER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST.

UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE CNTRL CONUS AND LOW PRESSURE/TROUGHING OFF THE NE COAST. FLOW
REMAINS BLOCKED OVER ERN CANADA AND THE NERN US...RESULTING IN
LITTLE PROGRESSION OF THE CNTRL CONUS RIDGE THRU THE PERIOD. THE
RESULT WILL BE ONGOING NWLY FLOW INTO THE EARLY PERIOD. BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL PUSH WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA SUN AS THE TROUGH
AMPLIFIES ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
SLIGHTLY WETTER SUN AFTER PREVIOUSLY BRINGING IN DRIER AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE STATES WILL RIDGE SWD OVER
THE LOCAL AREA IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH SUBSIDENCE INDICATED IN
MODEL SOUNDINGS. MOISTURE ALSO LOOKS TO BE ON THE DOWNTREND AS MODEL
DERIVED PWATS DROP BELOW 1.5 INCHES. WITH THAT SAID...SUN MAY END UP
BEING DRY...BUT WILL RETAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE PIEDMONT AND
COASTAL AREAS AS DISTURBANCES IN NWLY FLOW AND MODEL UNCERTAINTY
DECREASE CONFIDENCE. BETTER CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS HEADING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE CNTRL CONUS HIGH BEGINS TO NUDGE IN FROM
THE WEST AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WINS OUT. BEST MOISTURE ALSO GETS
SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. TREND CONTINUES INTO TUES AND WEDS AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD AND DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WIN OUT.

ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELD DAYTIME TEMPS GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THRU TUES (-1 STD DEV FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR). RETURN FLOW ON WEDS AND WARMING THICKNESSES PUSH TEMPS BACK
INTO THE MID 80S. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S THRU THE PERIOD
AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOW-MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE AREA.
A STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THESE FRONTS COMBINED WITH A MOIST AIR MASS WILL TRIGGER
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE NUMEROUS ON FRIDAY. WITH A
SEA BREEZE AND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE EASTERN PART OF
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL HAVE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME THESE BUT THESE SHOULD END BY AROUND 00Z.
OUT TO THE WEST SEVERAL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS ARE MOVING
TOWARD THE AREA. THESE SHOUDL DIMINISH AS THEY CROSS THE MOUNTAIN
BUT COULD STILL TRIGGER A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM NEAR KRIC THIS
EVENING. THE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST WILL PRODUCE PLENTY OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD PREVENT ANY WIDE
SPREAD FOG FROM FORMING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. EXPECT
CLEARING WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING.
WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MAINLY SOME EAST
WINDS NEAR THE COAST AND SOUTHWEST INLAND. ALL AREAS WILL SWITCH
TO NORTH OR NORTHEAST BY SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. A STATIONARY FRNT WILL
REMAIN JUST INLAND TDA OVR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WILL LEAD
TO LGT WINDS OVR ALL WTRS (AOB 10 KT) OUT OF THE S/SE. EXPECT MAINLY
2 FT SEAS (3 FT THIS MORNG OUT 20NM). THE FRNT STALLS OVR THE WTRS
TNGT AS A WAVE OF LO PRES DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRNT...VEERING WINDS
BEHIND THE LO TO AVG OUT OF THE N ON FRI. HI PRES OVR THE NE STATES
RIDGES SWD OVR THE WTRS FRI NGT INTO SAT AS LO PRES PUSHES OFF THE
NC COAST. A STRENGTHENING PRES GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
NELY WINDS OVER THE CSTAL WTRS LATE FRI NGT THRU SAT. HI PRES
REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE NE CST THRU ERLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. ATTM...SPEEDS APPEAR TO REMAIN
SUB-SCA...BUT SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BLD TO 4-5 FT LATE SAT THRU
MON.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS/JAB
MARINE...MAS






000
FXUS61 KRNK 211708
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
108 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE GULF COAST
WILL KEEP NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS INTO SATURDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING THE FRONT SHOULD
BRING DRIER AND COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT THURSDAY...

NOT A LOT OF CHANGE INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH MORNING SOUNDINGS
SHOWING DEEP NW FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND A WEAK MID LEVEL CAP
ALOFT. THIS TRAJECTORY HAS ACTED TO SHIFT THE BEST LOW LEVEL
THETA-E TO THE SOUTH/EAST WITH THE RESIDUAL SURFACE BOUNDARY JUST
OFF TO THE NE. EXPECT THIS ALONG WITH LACK OF MUCH FOCUS IN AN
INCREASING MIXED LAYER ENVIRONMENT TO LIMIT NEAR TERM CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AS THE MAIN FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE NW ALONG THE CONVEYOR
BELT OF IMPULSES RIDING OVER THE GULF STATES RIDGE. LATEST SHORT
RANGE GUIDANCE STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN IN THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF
THE NEXT WAVE(S) THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND
INTO THE MOUNTAINS LATER ON. HOWEVER CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT MAY
SEE AN OLD MCV SLIP SE TOWARD THE REGION MID/LATE AFTERNOON
PRECEDED BY A BROKEN BAND OF STORMS THAT COULD CROSS THE RIDGES
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS SIMILAR TO THE NEW 12Z NAM IN
BRINGING MORE ORGANIZED COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTH AFTER 21Z..WITH
SEVERAL OTHER SOLUTIONS HAVING A STRONGER MORE SOUTHWARD SPILLING
LINE OF TSRA LATER WITH THE COMPLEX NOW OVER INDIANA. THUS KEEPING
MAINLY WESTERN HIGHER CHANCE POPS WHILE TWEAKING DOWN CHANCES EAST
UNTIL LATER AS BEST COVERAGE MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL EARLY EVENING.

OTRW WILL SEE MUCH BETTER HEATING WITH ONLY THE FAR NW LIKELY TO
GET CLIPPED BY EARLY CLOUDS SPILLING ACROSS WEST VA AHEAD OF A
WEAKENING INITIAL WAVE. GIVEN 85H TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND 20C
COMBINED WITH DOWNSLOPE AND PLENTY OF INSOLATION ELSW SUPPORTS
HIGHS INTO THE 90S EAST WITH 80S WEST FOR THE MOST PART.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

IN SPITE OF THE BUSY LOOKING SYNOPSIS...NOT MUCH HAPPENING ACROSS
OUR AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE WAS SOME PATCHY FOG AND
STRATUS...BUT A DENSE AREA OF CIRRUS MOVED OVERHEAD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT LIMITING RADIATIVE EFFECTS THUS PREVENTING FOG FROM
BECOMING DENSE. ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD QUICKLY DISPERSE AFTER
SUNRISE.

SHALLOW EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO WEST
NORTHWEST WINDS LATER THIS MORNING AND DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY...WINDS
7-14 MPH...AND GUSTY NEAR THE RIDGE CRESTS. THE DEEPER
FLOW...WELL ALOFT...IS ALSO FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
TRANSPORT DEBRIS CLOUDINESS DOWNSTREAM FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS...CLOUD LAYERS MAINLY ABOVE 10KFT.

WITH WINDS OUT OF THE WEST TODAY...THIS WILL CREATE DOWNSLOPE
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AND SUBSIDENCE. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF LOCAL STORM DEVELOPMENT DUE TO THIS DOWNWARD VERTICAL
MOTION. PRIMARY AREA TO WATCH FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
VCNTY OF STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. STORMS
WHICH DEVELOP VCNTY OF THIS BOUNDARY...ACROSS IL/IN/OH/KY...WILL
MOVE DOWNSTREAM TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS EVENING AND
DURING THE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FROM WEST
VIRGINIA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...THE THREAT TRANSITIONING
DOWNSTREAM INTO VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. HELD OFF ON
ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF PRECIP EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE UNTIL
AFTER 4PM.

STORMS WHICH DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MAY BECOME ORGANIZED
INTO AN MCS...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. IF THIS OCCURS...THIS
COULD TRANSLATE INTO A SEVERE THREAT FOR OUR FCST AREA...THE
PRIMARY THREAT BEING WIND.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GET A BOOST BY THE RELATIVELY STRONG
DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY WIND...READINGS TESTING 90 ROA/LYH/DAN...AND
WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE MTNS. THE GFS MODEL INDICATES QUITE
A BIT OF DEBRIS CLOUDINESS DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF THE STORM
ACTIVITY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...SO THIS MAY INHIBIT FULL SENSIBLE
HEATING. NEVER THE LESS...LOOKING AT A WARM AFTERNOON...
TEMPERATURES RESEMBLING SOMETHING MORE TYPICAL OF AUGUST. WITH
CLOUDS AROUND TONIGHT...READINGS SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH BELOW 70...
WITH A RANGE OF 65 TO 70 FITTING PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...

THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO OFFER AN ACTIVE
WEATHER REGIME. STILL ON FRIDAY...THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND.
A BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE REGION ITSELF WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF PERIODIC SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
RIDING SOUTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL GIVE SOME
PARTS OF OUR REGION LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY.

THE PAST FEW DAYS...GUIDANCE HAS PRESENTED A CORNUCOPIA OF SOLUTIONS
REGARDING TIMING AND TRACK OF THESE IMPULSES OVER OR NEAR OUR
REGION. THE OFFERINGS BY THE 00Z/8PM MODEL RUNS ARE NOT MATCHING
EXACTLY...BUT THEY CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS A CONSENSUS THAT THEIR
EARLIER COUNTERPARTS ALSO HAD BEEN NOTING. FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY EVENING...OR OVERNIGHT...IS A TIME WORTH WATCHING FOR ONE
SUCH MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IMPACTING THE
AREA. THE FOCUS FOR LOCATION IS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE REGION. ANOTHER TIME TO WATCH IS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON
SATURDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL HAVE STARTED TO ENTER THE
REGION AND PROGRESS TO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA BY THE
AFTERNOON. ITS POSITION THERE WILL ADD A GREATER FOCUS TO COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY.

ONCE WE PROGRESS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...THIS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL HAVE CONTINUED ITS PUSH
WESTWARD THROUGH ALL...OR MOST OF THE REGION. MODEL CONSENSUS
PLACES IT ALONG A N-S ORIENTATION FROM ROUGHLY THE GREAT SMOKY
MOUNTAINS NORTH INTO THE COAL COUNTRY OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS
TRANSITION WILL PLACE MOST OF OUR REGION WITHIN A MOIST LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW THAT WILL KEEP THE AREA STABLE...SOCKED IN WITH
CLOUDS...COOLER...WITH EITHER LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE....ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS RULE MAY BE AREAS
SUCH AS TAZEWELL...RICHLANDS...AND MARION VIRGINIA. THIS AREA MAY BE
UNDER...OR CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE FRONT...FOR MILDER TEMPERATURES...A
BIT OF INSTABILITY...WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL TREND COOLER DURING THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY. ON SUNDAY HAVE GONE WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
THE EXCEPTION BEING CLOSER TO RICHLANDS WHERE THE FORECAST WILL
REFLECT NUMBERS AROUND GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 500 MB
HEIGHTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEGIN TO RISE ON TUESDAY WITH THE
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND WEDGED DOWN THE
APPALACHIANS THROUGH TUESDAY. BY THURSDAY A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH WILL
BE IN PLACE.

CHALLENGING TO TIME SHORT WAVES COMING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE.
WPC WAS FAVORING A BLEND OF ENSEMBLE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS KEEPS FORECAST AREA IN A PERSISTENT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME WILL BE
EMPHASIZING SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST CHANCE IN THIS TIME FRAME.

WILL BE WARMING UP CLOSER TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT THURSDAY...

OVERALL VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON UNDER WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE AND NW FLOW ALOFT. WILL GRADUALLY SEE CU FIELDS
INCREASE AS WELL AS ISOLATED CONVECTION FROM WEST TO EAST BUT
THINKING CIGS TO REMAIN VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY WESTERN SHRA/TSRA.
APPEARS BEST CHANCE AT SEEING A TSRA EARLY WILL BE AROUND KBLF
WITH UPSTREAM COVERAGE APPROACHING...AND THEN MID/LATE AFTERNOON
AT KLWB. FARTHER EAST...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR ANY
ISOLATED EARLY COVERAGE MIGHT GET AND THEN WHETHER OR NOT
SOMETHING MORE ORGANIZED DEVELOPS OVER WV/OH AND TRANSLATES
SE...CROSSING MUCH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. LATEST GUIDANCE
KEEPS THE MAJORITY TO THE WEST AND NORTH PER LACK OF CONSOLIDATION
OF SHRA/TSRA. FOR NOW PLAN TO KEEP AT LEAST A TEMPO MENTION FOR A
PERIOD OF MVFR IN TSRA FOR THE WV TERMINALS BETWEEN 19-21Z/3-5PM
THEN INTO THE VA TERMINALS BETWEEN 21-24Z/5-8PM. GUSTY WINDS ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE STORMS PER INVERTED V TYPE SOUNDINGS SO
INCLUDED MENTION.

EXPECT WILL GET A BREAK IN STORMS BY MIDNIGHT FOR THE MOST PART
BEFORE ANOTHER IMPULSE APPROACHES EARLY FRIDAY IN THE INCREASING
NW FLOW ALOFT. SHOULD AGAIN SEE AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN FOG PENDING
DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER LATE WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS AGAIN AT KLWB
AND ANY SPOT THAT SEES A DOWNPOUR THROUGH THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE
STRONGER FLOW ALOFT...ADDED SHRA COULD DEVELOP BEFORE DAWN WEST
AND STREAM SE ESPCLY ALONG THE KBLF-KDAN CORRIDOR FRIDAY MORNING
SO INCLUDED A VCSH IN THOSE LOCATIONS FOR NOW. ELSW APPEARS LOTS
OF MVFR/VFR STRATO-CU CIGS UNDER MID DECK WHICH SHOULD SLOWLY
ERODE INTO VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON AFTER EARLY FOG FADES.

EXTENDED AVIATION...

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH PERIODICALLY AND
INTERACTING WITH A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO
THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR...EXPECT STRATUS AND FOG
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR MOST
PRONOUNCED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 9AM EACH DAY. MODELS ARE INDICATED
THAT A DEEPER EASTERLY SORT OF WIND FLOW WILL SETUP FOR THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS SUGGEST THAT LOW CIGS MAY PERSIST EVEN
DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD
MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND DUE TO MOISTURE
BANKING UP AGAINST THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. BETTER PUNCH
OF DRY AIR WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NE MAY BE
ENOUGH WITH MIXING/HEATING TO ALLOW FOR INCREASING VFR MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY UNDER MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.
&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/PM
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/PM



000
FXUS61 KRNK 211708
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
108 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE GULF COAST
WILL KEEP NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS INTO SATURDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING THE FRONT SHOULD
BRING DRIER AND COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT THURSDAY...

NOT A LOT OF CHANGE INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH MORNING SOUNDINGS
SHOWING DEEP NW FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND A WEAK MID LEVEL CAP
ALOFT. THIS TRAJECTORY HAS ACTED TO SHIFT THE BEST LOW LEVEL
THETA-E TO THE SOUTH/EAST WITH THE RESIDUAL SURFACE BOUNDARY JUST
OFF TO THE NE. EXPECT THIS ALONG WITH LACK OF MUCH FOCUS IN AN
INCREASING MIXED LAYER ENVIRONMENT TO LIMIT NEAR TERM CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AS THE MAIN FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE NW ALONG THE CONVEYOR
BELT OF IMPULSES RIDING OVER THE GULF STATES RIDGE. LATEST SHORT
RANGE GUIDANCE STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN IN THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF
THE NEXT WAVE(S) THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND
INTO THE MOUNTAINS LATER ON. HOWEVER CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT MAY
SEE AN OLD MCV SLIP SE TOWARD THE REGION MID/LATE AFTERNOON
PRECEDED BY A BROKEN BAND OF STORMS THAT COULD CROSS THE RIDGES
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS SIMILAR TO THE NEW 12Z NAM IN
BRINGING MORE ORGANIZED COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTH AFTER 21Z..WITH
SEVERAL OTHER SOLUTIONS HAVING A STRONGER MORE SOUTHWARD SPILLING
LINE OF TSRA LATER WITH THE COMPLEX NOW OVER INDIANA. THUS KEEPING
MAINLY WESTERN HIGHER CHANCE POPS WHILE TWEAKING DOWN CHANCES EAST
UNTIL LATER AS BEST COVERAGE MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL EARLY EVENING.

OTRW WILL SEE MUCH BETTER HEATING WITH ONLY THE FAR NW LIKELY TO
GET CLIPPED BY EARLY CLOUDS SPILLING ACROSS WEST VA AHEAD OF A
WEAKENING INITIAL WAVE. GIVEN 85H TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND 20C
COMBINED WITH DOWNSLOPE AND PLENTY OF INSOLATION ELSW SUPPORTS
HIGHS INTO THE 90S EAST WITH 80S WEST FOR THE MOST PART.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

IN SPITE OF THE BUSY LOOKING SYNOPSIS...NOT MUCH HAPPENING ACROSS
OUR AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE WAS SOME PATCHY FOG AND
STRATUS...BUT A DENSE AREA OF CIRRUS MOVED OVERHEAD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT LIMITING RADIATIVE EFFECTS THUS PREVENTING FOG FROM
BECOMING DENSE. ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD QUICKLY DISPERSE AFTER
SUNRISE.

SHALLOW EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO WEST
NORTHWEST WINDS LATER THIS MORNING AND DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY...WINDS
7-14 MPH...AND GUSTY NEAR THE RIDGE CRESTS. THE DEEPER
FLOW...WELL ALOFT...IS ALSO FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
TRANSPORT DEBRIS CLOUDINESS DOWNSTREAM FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS...CLOUD LAYERS MAINLY ABOVE 10KFT.

WITH WINDS OUT OF THE WEST TODAY...THIS WILL CREATE DOWNSLOPE
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AND SUBSIDENCE. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF LOCAL STORM DEVELOPMENT DUE TO THIS DOWNWARD VERTICAL
MOTION. PRIMARY AREA TO WATCH FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
VCNTY OF STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. STORMS
WHICH DEVELOP VCNTY OF THIS BOUNDARY...ACROSS IL/IN/OH/KY...WILL
MOVE DOWNSTREAM TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS EVENING AND
DURING THE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FROM WEST
VIRGINIA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...THE THREAT TRANSITIONING
DOWNSTREAM INTO VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. HELD OFF ON
ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF PRECIP EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE UNTIL
AFTER 4PM.

STORMS WHICH DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MAY BECOME ORGANIZED
INTO AN MCS...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. IF THIS OCCURS...THIS
COULD TRANSLATE INTO A SEVERE THREAT FOR OUR FCST AREA...THE
PRIMARY THREAT BEING WIND.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GET A BOOST BY THE RELATIVELY STRONG
DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY WIND...READINGS TESTING 90 ROA/LYH/DAN...AND
WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE MTNS. THE GFS MODEL INDICATES QUITE
A BIT OF DEBRIS CLOUDINESS DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF THE STORM
ACTIVITY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...SO THIS MAY INHIBIT FULL SENSIBLE
HEATING. NEVER THE LESS...LOOKING AT A WARM AFTERNOON...
TEMPERATURES RESEMBLING SOMETHING MORE TYPICAL OF AUGUST. WITH
CLOUDS AROUND TONIGHT...READINGS SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH BELOW 70...
WITH A RANGE OF 65 TO 70 FITTING PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...

THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO OFFER AN ACTIVE
WEATHER REGIME. STILL ON FRIDAY...THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND.
A BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE REGION ITSELF WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF PERIODIC SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
RIDING SOUTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL GIVE SOME
PARTS OF OUR REGION LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY.

THE PAST FEW DAYS...GUIDANCE HAS PRESENTED A CORNUCOPIA OF SOLUTIONS
REGARDING TIMING AND TRACK OF THESE IMPULSES OVER OR NEAR OUR
REGION. THE OFFERINGS BY THE 00Z/8PM MODEL RUNS ARE NOT MATCHING
EXACTLY...BUT THEY CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS A CONSENSUS THAT THEIR
EARLIER COUNTERPARTS ALSO HAD BEEN NOTING. FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY EVENING...OR OVERNIGHT...IS A TIME WORTH WATCHING FOR ONE
SUCH MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IMPACTING THE
AREA. THE FOCUS FOR LOCATION IS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE REGION. ANOTHER TIME TO WATCH IS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON
SATURDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL HAVE STARTED TO ENTER THE
REGION AND PROGRESS TO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA BY THE
AFTERNOON. ITS POSITION THERE WILL ADD A GREATER FOCUS TO COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY.

ONCE WE PROGRESS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...THIS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL HAVE CONTINUED ITS PUSH
WESTWARD THROUGH ALL...OR MOST OF THE REGION. MODEL CONSENSUS
PLACES IT ALONG A N-S ORIENTATION FROM ROUGHLY THE GREAT SMOKY
MOUNTAINS NORTH INTO THE COAL COUNTRY OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS
TRANSITION WILL PLACE MOST OF OUR REGION WITHIN A MOIST LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW THAT WILL KEEP THE AREA STABLE...SOCKED IN WITH
CLOUDS...COOLER...WITH EITHER LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE....ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS RULE MAY BE AREAS
SUCH AS TAZEWELL...RICHLANDS...AND MARION VIRGINIA. THIS AREA MAY BE
UNDER...OR CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE FRONT...FOR MILDER TEMPERATURES...A
BIT OF INSTABILITY...WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL TREND COOLER DURING THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY. ON SUNDAY HAVE GONE WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
THE EXCEPTION BEING CLOSER TO RICHLANDS WHERE THE FORECAST WILL
REFLECT NUMBERS AROUND GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 500 MB
HEIGHTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEGIN TO RISE ON TUESDAY WITH THE
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND WEDGED DOWN THE
APPALACHIANS THROUGH TUESDAY. BY THURSDAY A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH WILL
BE IN PLACE.

CHALLENGING TO TIME SHORT WAVES COMING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE.
WPC WAS FAVORING A BLEND OF ENSEMBLE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS KEEPS FORECAST AREA IN A PERSISTENT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME WILL BE
EMPHASIZING SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST CHANCE IN THIS TIME FRAME.

WILL BE WARMING UP CLOSER TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT THURSDAY...

OVERALL VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON UNDER WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE AND NW FLOW ALOFT. WILL GRADUALLY SEE CU FIELDS
INCREASE AS WELL AS ISOLATED CONVECTION FROM WEST TO EAST BUT
THINKING CIGS TO REMAIN VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY WESTERN SHRA/TSRA.
APPEARS BEST CHANCE AT SEEING A TSRA EARLY WILL BE AROUND KBLF
WITH UPSTREAM COVERAGE APPROACHING...AND THEN MID/LATE AFTERNOON
AT KLWB. FARTHER EAST...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR ANY
ISOLATED EARLY COVERAGE MIGHT GET AND THEN WHETHER OR NOT
SOMETHING MORE ORGANIZED DEVELOPS OVER WV/OH AND TRANSLATES
SE...CROSSING MUCH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. LATEST GUIDANCE
KEEPS THE MAJORITY TO THE WEST AND NORTH PER LACK OF CONSOLIDATION
OF SHRA/TSRA. FOR NOW PLAN TO KEEP AT LEAST A TEMPO MENTION FOR A
PERIOD OF MVFR IN TSRA FOR THE WV TERMINALS BETWEEN 19-21Z/3-5PM
THEN INTO THE VA TERMINALS BETWEEN 21-24Z/5-8PM. GUSTY WINDS ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE STORMS PER INVERTED V TYPE SOUNDINGS SO
INCLUDED MENTION.

EXPECT WILL GET A BREAK IN STORMS BY MIDNIGHT FOR THE MOST PART
BEFORE ANOTHER IMPULSE APPROACHES EARLY FRIDAY IN THE INCREASING
NW FLOW ALOFT. SHOULD AGAIN SEE AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN FOG PENDING
DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER LATE WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS AGAIN AT KLWB
AND ANY SPOT THAT SEES A DOWNPOUR THROUGH THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE
STRONGER FLOW ALOFT...ADDED SHRA COULD DEVELOP BEFORE DAWN WEST
AND STREAM SE ESPCLY ALONG THE KBLF-KDAN CORRIDOR FRIDAY MORNING
SO INCLUDED A VCSH IN THOSE LOCATIONS FOR NOW. ELSW APPEARS LOTS
OF MVFR/VFR STRATO-CU CIGS UNDER MID DECK WHICH SHOULD SLOWLY
ERODE INTO VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON AFTER EARLY FOG FADES.

EXTENDED AVIATION...

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH PERIODICALLY AND
INTERACTING WITH A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO
THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR...EXPECT STRATUS AND FOG
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR MOST
PRONOUNCED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 9AM EACH DAY. MODELS ARE INDICATED
THAT A DEEPER EASTERLY SORT OF WIND FLOW WILL SETUP FOR THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS SUGGEST THAT LOW CIGS MAY PERSIST EVEN
DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD
MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND DUE TO MOISTURE
BANKING UP AGAINST THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. BETTER PUNCH
OF DRY AIR WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NE MAY BE
ENOUGH WITH MIXING/HEATING TO ALLOW FOR INCREASING VFR MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY UNDER MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.
&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/PM
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/PM



000
FXUS61 KRNK 211708
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
108 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE GULF COAST
WILL KEEP NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS INTO SATURDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING THE FRONT SHOULD
BRING DRIER AND COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT THURSDAY...

NOT A LOT OF CHANGE INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH MORNING SOUNDINGS
SHOWING DEEP NW FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND A WEAK MID LEVEL CAP
ALOFT. THIS TRAJECTORY HAS ACTED TO SHIFT THE BEST LOW LEVEL
THETA-E TO THE SOUTH/EAST WITH THE RESIDUAL SURFACE BOUNDARY JUST
OFF TO THE NE. EXPECT THIS ALONG WITH LACK OF MUCH FOCUS IN AN
INCREASING MIXED LAYER ENVIRONMENT TO LIMIT NEAR TERM CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AS THE MAIN FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE NW ALONG THE CONVEYOR
BELT OF IMPULSES RIDING OVER THE GULF STATES RIDGE. LATEST SHORT
RANGE GUIDANCE STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN IN THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF
THE NEXT WAVE(S) THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND
INTO THE MOUNTAINS LATER ON. HOWEVER CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT MAY
SEE AN OLD MCV SLIP SE TOWARD THE REGION MID/LATE AFTERNOON
PRECEDED BY A BROKEN BAND OF STORMS THAT COULD CROSS THE RIDGES
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS SIMILAR TO THE NEW 12Z NAM IN
BRINGING MORE ORGANIZED COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTH AFTER 21Z..WITH
SEVERAL OTHER SOLUTIONS HAVING A STRONGER MORE SOUTHWARD SPILLING
LINE OF TSRA LATER WITH THE COMPLEX NOW OVER INDIANA. THUS KEEPING
MAINLY WESTERN HIGHER CHANCE POPS WHILE TWEAKING DOWN CHANCES EAST
UNTIL LATER AS BEST COVERAGE MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL EARLY EVENING.

OTRW WILL SEE MUCH BETTER HEATING WITH ONLY THE FAR NW LIKELY TO
GET CLIPPED BY EARLY CLOUDS SPILLING ACROSS WEST VA AHEAD OF A
WEAKENING INITIAL WAVE. GIVEN 85H TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND 20C
COMBINED WITH DOWNSLOPE AND PLENTY OF INSOLATION ELSW SUPPORTS
HIGHS INTO THE 90S EAST WITH 80S WEST FOR THE MOST PART.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

IN SPITE OF THE BUSY LOOKING SYNOPSIS...NOT MUCH HAPPENING ACROSS
OUR AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE WAS SOME PATCHY FOG AND
STRATUS...BUT A DENSE AREA OF CIRRUS MOVED OVERHEAD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT LIMITING RADIATIVE EFFECTS THUS PREVENTING FOG FROM
BECOMING DENSE. ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD QUICKLY DISPERSE AFTER
SUNRISE.

SHALLOW EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO WEST
NORTHWEST WINDS LATER THIS MORNING AND DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY...WINDS
7-14 MPH...AND GUSTY NEAR THE RIDGE CRESTS. THE DEEPER
FLOW...WELL ALOFT...IS ALSO FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
TRANSPORT DEBRIS CLOUDINESS DOWNSTREAM FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS...CLOUD LAYERS MAINLY ABOVE 10KFT.

WITH WINDS OUT OF THE WEST TODAY...THIS WILL CREATE DOWNSLOPE
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AND SUBSIDENCE. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF LOCAL STORM DEVELOPMENT DUE TO THIS DOWNWARD VERTICAL
MOTION. PRIMARY AREA TO WATCH FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
VCNTY OF STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. STORMS
WHICH DEVELOP VCNTY OF THIS BOUNDARY...ACROSS IL/IN/OH/KY...WILL
MOVE DOWNSTREAM TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS EVENING AND
DURING THE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FROM WEST
VIRGINIA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...THE THREAT TRANSITIONING
DOWNSTREAM INTO VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. HELD OFF ON
ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF PRECIP EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE UNTIL
AFTER 4PM.

STORMS WHICH DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MAY BECOME ORGANIZED
INTO AN MCS...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. IF THIS OCCURS...THIS
COULD TRANSLATE INTO A SEVERE THREAT FOR OUR FCST AREA...THE
PRIMARY THREAT BEING WIND.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GET A BOOST BY THE RELATIVELY STRONG
DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY WIND...READINGS TESTING 90 ROA/LYH/DAN...AND
WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE MTNS. THE GFS MODEL INDICATES QUITE
A BIT OF DEBRIS CLOUDINESS DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF THE STORM
ACTIVITY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...SO THIS MAY INHIBIT FULL SENSIBLE
HEATING. NEVER THE LESS...LOOKING AT A WARM AFTERNOON...
TEMPERATURES RESEMBLING SOMETHING MORE TYPICAL OF AUGUST. WITH
CLOUDS AROUND TONIGHT...READINGS SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH BELOW 70...
WITH A RANGE OF 65 TO 70 FITTING PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...

THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO OFFER AN ACTIVE
WEATHER REGIME. STILL ON FRIDAY...THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND.
A BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE REGION ITSELF WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF PERIODIC SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
RIDING SOUTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL GIVE SOME
PARTS OF OUR REGION LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY.

THE PAST FEW DAYS...GUIDANCE HAS PRESENTED A CORNUCOPIA OF SOLUTIONS
REGARDING TIMING AND TRACK OF THESE IMPULSES OVER OR NEAR OUR
REGION. THE OFFERINGS BY THE 00Z/8PM MODEL RUNS ARE NOT MATCHING
EXACTLY...BUT THEY CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS A CONSENSUS THAT THEIR
EARLIER COUNTERPARTS ALSO HAD BEEN NOTING. FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY EVENING...OR OVERNIGHT...IS A TIME WORTH WATCHING FOR ONE
SUCH MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IMPACTING THE
AREA. THE FOCUS FOR LOCATION IS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE REGION. ANOTHER TIME TO WATCH IS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON
SATURDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL HAVE STARTED TO ENTER THE
REGION AND PROGRESS TO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA BY THE
AFTERNOON. ITS POSITION THERE WILL ADD A GREATER FOCUS TO COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY.

ONCE WE PROGRESS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...THIS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL HAVE CONTINUED ITS PUSH
WESTWARD THROUGH ALL...OR MOST OF THE REGION. MODEL CONSENSUS
PLACES IT ALONG A N-S ORIENTATION FROM ROUGHLY THE GREAT SMOKY
MOUNTAINS NORTH INTO THE COAL COUNTRY OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS
TRANSITION WILL PLACE MOST OF OUR REGION WITHIN A MOIST LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW THAT WILL KEEP THE AREA STABLE...SOCKED IN WITH
CLOUDS...COOLER...WITH EITHER LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE....ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS RULE MAY BE AREAS
SUCH AS TAZEWELL...RICHLANDS...AND MARION VIRGINIA. THIS AREA MAY BE
UNDER...OR CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE FRONT...FOR MILDER TEMPERATURES...A
BIT OF INSTABILITY...WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL TREND COOLER DURING THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY. ON SUNDAY HAVE GONE WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
THE EXCEPTION BEING CLOSER TO RICHLANDS WHERE THE FORECAST WILL
REFLECT NUMBERS AROUND GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 500 MB
HEIGHTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEGIN TO RISE ON TUESDAY WITH THE
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND WEDGED DOWN THE
APPALACHIANS THROUGH TUESDAY. BY THURSDAY A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH WILL
BE IN PLACE.

CHALLENGING TO TIME SHORT WAVES COMING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE.
WPC WAS FAVORING A BLEND OF ENSEMBLE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS KEEPS FORECAST AREA IN A PERSISTENT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME WILL BE
EMPHASIZING SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST CHANCE IN THIS TIME FRAME.

WILL BE WARMING UP CLOSER TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT THURSDAY...

OVERALL VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON UNDER WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE AND NW FLOW ALOFT. WILL GRADUALLY SEE CU FIELDS
INCREASE AS WELL AS ISOLATED CONVECTION FROM WEST TO EAST BUT
THINKING CIGS TO REMAIN VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY WESTERN SHRA/TSRA.
APPEARS BEST CHANCE AT SEEING A TSRA EARLY WILL BE AROUND KBLF
WITH UPSTREAM COVERAGE APPROACHING...AND THEN MID/LATE AFTERNOON
AT KLWB. FARTHER EAST...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR ANY
ISOLATED EARLY COVERAGE MIGHT GET AND THEN WHETHER OR NOT
SOMETHING MORE ORGANIZED DEVELOPS OVER WV/OH AND TRANSLATES
SE...CROSSING MUCH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. LATEST GUIDANCE
KEEPS THE MAJORITY TO THE WEST AND NORTH PER LACK OF CONSOLIDATION
OF SHRA/TSRA. FOR NOW PLAN TO KEEP AT LEAST A TEMPO MENTION FOR A
PERIOD OF MVFR IN TSRA FOR THE WV TERMINALS BETWEEN 19-21Z/3-5PM
THEN INTO THE VA TERMINALS BETWEEN 21-24Z/5-8PM. GUSTY WINDS ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE STORMS PER INVERTED V TYPE SOUNDINGS SO
INCLUDED MENTION.

EXPECT WILL GET A BREAK IN STORMS BY MIDNIGHT FOR THE MOST PART
BEFORE ANOTHER IMPULSE APPROACHES EARLY FRIDAY IN THE INCREASING
NW FLOW ALOFT. SHOULD AGAIN SEE AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN FOG PENDING
DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER LATE WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS AGAIN AT KLWB
AND ANY SPOT THAT SEES A DOWNPOUR THROUGH THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE
STRONGER FLOW ALOFT...ADDED SHRA COULD DEVELOP BEFORE DAWN WEST
AND STREAM SE ESPCLY ALONG THE KBLF-KDAN CORRIDOR FRIDAY MORNING
SO INCLUDED A VCSH IN THOSE LOCATIONS FOR NOW. ELSW APPEARS LOTS
OF MVFR/VFR STRATO-CU CIGS UNDER MID DECK WHICH SHOULD SLOWLY
ERODE INTO VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON AFTER EARLY FOG FADES.

EXTENDED AVIATION...

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH PERIODICALLY AND
INTERACTING WITH A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO
THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR...EXPECT STRATUS AND FOG
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR MOST
PRONOUNCED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 9AM EACH DAY. MODELS ARE INDICATED
THAT A DEEPER EASTERLY SORT OF WIND FLOW WILL SETUP FOR THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS SUGGEST THAT LOW CIGS MAY PERSIST EVEN
DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD
MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND DUE TO MOISTURE
BANKING UP AGAINST THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. BETTER PUNCH
OF DRY AIR WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NE MAY BE
ENOUGH WITH MIXING/HEATING TO ALLOW FOR INCREASING VFR MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY UNDER MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.
&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/PM
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/PM



000
FXUS61 KRNK 211708
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
108 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE GULF COAST
WILL KEEP NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS INTO SATURDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING THE FRONT SHOULD
BRING DRIER AND COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT THURSDAY...

NOT A LOT OF CHANGE INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH MORNING SOUNDINGS
SHOWING DEEP NW FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND A WEAK MID LEVEL CAP
ALOFT. THIS TRAJECTORY HAS ACTED TO SHIFT THE BEST LOW LEVEL
THETA-E TO THE SOUTH/EAST WITH THE RESIDUAL SURFACE BOUNDARY JUST
OFF TO THE NE. EXPECT THIS ALONG WITH LACK OF MUCH FOCUS IN AN
INCREASING MIXED LAYER ENVIRONMENT TO LIMIT NEAR TERM CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AS THE MAIN FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE NW ALONG THE CONVEYOR
BELT OF IMPULSES RIDING OVER THE GULF STATES RIDGE. LATEST SHORT
RANGE GUIDANCE STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN IN THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF
THE NEXT WAVE(S) THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND
INTO THE MOUNTAINS LATER ON. HOWEVER CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT MAY
SEE AN OLD MCV SLIP SE TOWARD THE REGION MID/LATE AFTERNOON
PRECEDED BY A BROKEN BAND OF STORMS THAT COULD CROSS THE RIDGES
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS SIMILAR TO THE NEW 12Z NAM IN
BRINGING MORE ORGANIZED COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTH AFTER 21Z..WITH
SEVERAL OTHER SOLUTIONS HAVING A STRONGER MORE SOUTHWARD SPILLING
LINE OF TSRA LATER WITH THE COMPLEX NOW OVER INDIANA. THUS KEEPING
MAINLY WESTERN HIGHER CHANCE POPS WHILE TWEAKING DOWN CHANCES EAST
UNTIL LATER AS BEST COVERAGE MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL EARLY EVENING.

OTRW WILL SEE MUCH BETTER HEATING WITH ONLY THE FAR NW LIKELY TO
GET CLIPPED BY EARLY CLOUDS SPILLING ACROSS WEST VA AHEAD OF A
WEAKENING INITIAL WAVE. GIVEN 85H TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND 20C
COMBINED WITH DOWNSLOPE AND PLENTY OF INSOLATION ELSW SUPPORTS
HIGHS INTO THE 90S EAST WITH 80S WEST FOR THE MOST PART.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

IN SPITE OF THE BUSY LOOKING SYNOPSIS...NOT MUCH HAPPENING ACROSS
OUR AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE WAS SOME PATCHY FOG AND
STRATUS...BUT A DENSE AREA OF CIRRUS MOVED OVERHEAD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT LIMITING RADIATIVE EFFECTS THUS PREVENTING FOG FROM
BECOMING DENSE. ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD QUICKLY DISPERSE AFTER
SUNRISE.

SHALLOW EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO WEST
NORTHWEST WINDS LATER THIS MORNING AND DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY...WINDS
7-14 MPH...AND GUSTY NEAR THE RIDGE CRESTS. THE DEEPER
FLOW...WELL ALOFT...IS ALSO FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
TRANSPORT DEBRIS CLOUDINESS DOWNSTREAM FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS...CLOUD LAYERS MAINLY ABOVE 10KFT.

WITH WINDS OUT OF THE WEST TODAY...THIS WILL CREATE DOWNSLOPE
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AND SUBSIDENCE. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF LOCAL STORM DEVELOPMENT DUE TO THIS DOWNWARD VERTICAL
MOTION. PRIMARY AREA TO WATCH FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
VCNTY OF STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. STORMS
WHICH DEVELOP VCNTY OF THIS BOUNDARY...ACROSS IL/IN/OH/KY...WILL
MOVE DOWNSTREAM TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS EVENING AND
DURING THE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FROM WEST
VIRGINIA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...THE THREAT TRANSITIONING
DOWNSTREAM INTO VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. HELD OFF ON
ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF PRECIP EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE UNTIL
AFTER 4PM.

STORMS WHICH DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MAY BECOME ORGANIZED
INTO AN MCS...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. IF THIS OCCURS...THIS
COULD TRANSLATE INTO A SEVERE THREAT FOR OUR FCST AREA...THE
PRIMARY THREAT BEING WIND.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GET A BOOST BY THE RELATIVELY STRONG
DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY WIND...READINGS TESTING 90 ROA/LYH/DAN...AND
WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE MTNS. THE GFS MODEL INDICATES QUITE
A BIT OF DEBRIS CLOUDINESS DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF THE STORM
ACTIVITY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...SO THIS MAY INHIBIT FULL SENSIBLE
HEATING. NEVER THE LESS...LOOKING AT A WARM AFTERNOON...
TEMPERATURES RESEMBLING SOMETHING MORE TYPICAL OF AUGUST. WITH
CLOUDS AROUND TONIGHT...READINGS SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH BELOW 70...
WITH A RANGE OF 65 TO 70 FITTING PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...

THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO OFFER AN ACTIVE
WEATHER REGIME. STILL ON FRIDAY...THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND.
A BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE REGION ITSELF WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF PERIODIC SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
RIDING SOUTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL GIVE SOME
PARTS OF OUR REGION LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY.

THE PAST FEW DAYS...GUIDANCE HAS PRESENTED A CORNUCOPIA OF SOLUTIONS
REGARDING TIMING AND TRACK OF THESE IMPULSES OVER OR NEAR OUR
REGION. THE OFFERINGS BY THE 00Z/8PM MODEL RUNS ARE NOT MATCHING
EXACTLY...BUT THEY CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS A CONSENSUS THAT THEIR
EARLIER COUNTERPARTS ALSO HAD BEEN NOTING. FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY EVENING...OR OVERNIGHT...IS A TIME WORTH WATCHING FOR ONE
SUCH MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IMPACTING THE
AREA. THE FOCUS FOR LOCATION IS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE REGION. ANOTHER TIME TO WATCH IS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON
SATURDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL HAVE STARTED TO ENTER THE
REGION AND PROGRESS TO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA BY THE
AFTERNOON. ITS POSITION THERE WILL ADD A GREATER FOCUS TO COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY.

ONCE WE PROGRESS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...THIS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL HAVE CONTINUED ITS PUSH
WESTWARD THROUGH ALL...OR MOST OF THE REGION. MODEL CONSENSUS
PLACES IT ALONG A N-S ORIENTATION FROM ROUGHLY THE GREAT SMOKY
MOUNTAINS NORTH INTO THE COAL COUNTRY OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS
TRANSITION WILL PLACE MOST OF OUR REGION WITHIN A MOIST LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW THAT WILL KEEP THE AREA STABLE...SOCKED IN WITH
CLOUDS...COOLER...WITH EITHER LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE....ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS RULE MAY BE AREAS
SUCH AS TAZEWELL...RICHLANDS...AND MARION VIRGINIA. THIS AREA MAY BE
UNDER...OR CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE FRONT...FOR MILDER TEMPERATURES...A
BIT OF INSTABILITY...WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL TREND COOLER DURING THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY. ON SUNDAY HAVE GONE WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
THE EXCEPTION BEING CLOSER TO RICHLANDS WHERE THE FORECAST WILL
REFLECT NUMBERS AROUND GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 500 MB
HEIGHTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEGIN TO RISE ON TUESDAY WITH THE
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND WEDGED DOWN THE
APPALACHIANS THROUGH TUESDAY. BY THURSDAY A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH WILL
BE IN PLACE.

CHALLENGING TO TIME SHORT WAVES COMING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE.
WPC WAS FAVORING A BLEND OF ENSEMBLE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS KEEPS FORECAST AREA IN A PERSISTENT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME WILL BE
EMPHASIZING SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST CHANCE IN THIS TIME FRAME.

WILL BE WARMING UP CLOSER TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT THURSDAY...

OVERALL VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON UNDER WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE AND NW FLOW ALOFT. WILL GRADUALLY SEE CU FIELDS
INCREASE AS WELL AS ISOLATED CONVECTION FROM WEST TO EAST BUT
THINKING CIGS TO REMAIN VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY WESTERN SHRA/TSRA.
APPEARS BEST CHANCE AT SEEING A TSRA EARLY WILL BE AROUND KBLF
WITH UPSTREAM COVERAGE APPROACHING...AND THEN MID/LATE AFTERNOON
AT KLWB. FARTHER EAST...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR ANY
ISOLATED EARLY COVERAGE MIGHT GET AND THEN WHETHER OR NOT
SOMETHING MORE ORGANIZED DEVELOPS OVER WV/OH AND TRANSLATES
SE...CROSSING MUCH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. LATEST GUIDANCE
KEEPS THE MAJORITY TO THE WEST AND NORTH PER LACK OF CONSOLIDATION
OF SHRA/TSRA. FOR NOW PLAN TO KEEP AT LEAST A TEMPO MENTION FOR A
PERIOD OF MVFR IN TSRA FOR THE WV TERMINALS BETWEEN 19-21Z/3-5PM
THEN INTO THE VA TERMINALS BETWEEN 21-24Z/5-8PM. GUSTY WINDS ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE STORMS PER INVERTED V TYPE SOUNDINGS SO
INCLUDED MENTION.

EXPECT WILL GET A BREAK IN STORMS BY MIDNIGHT FOR THE MOST PART
BEFORE ANOTHER IMPULSE APPROACHES EARLY FRIDAY IN THE INCREASING
NW FLOW ALOFT. SHOULD AGAIN SEE AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN FOG PENDING
DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER LATE WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS AGAIN AT KLWB
AND ANY SPOT THAT SEES A DOWNPOUR THROUGH THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE
STRONGER FLOW ALOFT...ADDED SHRA COULD DEVELOP BEFORE DAWN WEST
AND STREAM SE ESPCLY ALONG THE KBLF-KDAN CORRIDOR FRIDAY MORNING
SO INCLUDED A VCSH IN THOSE LOCATIONS FOR NOW. ELSW APPEARS LOTS
OF MVFR/VFR STRATO-CU CIGS UNDER MID DECK WHICH SHOULD SLOWLY
ERODE INTO VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON AFTER EARLY FOG FADES.

EXTENDED AVIATION...

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH PERIODICALLY AND
INTERACTING WITH A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO
THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR...EXPECT STRATUS AND FOG
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR MOST
PRONOUNCED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 9AM EACH DAY. MODELS ARE INDICATED
THAT A DEEPER EASTERLY SORT OF WIND FLOW WILL SETUP FOR THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS SUGGEST THAT LOW CIGS MAY PERSIST EVEN
DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD
MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND DUE TO MOISTURE
BANKING UP AGAINST THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. BETTER PUNCH
OF DRY AIR WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NE MAY BE
ENOUGH WITH MIXING/HEATING TO ALLOW FOR INCREASING VFR MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY UNDER MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.
&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/PM
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/PM



000
FXUS61 KLWX 211432
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1032 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL WAVER ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AS RIPPLES
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE LAST IMPULSE WILL
TRAVERSE THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL PUSH IT SOUTH AS A
COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND WILL DOWN DOWN THE EAST
COAST THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PINWHEEL A FEW HUNDRED MILES TO OUR
NORTH WILL SLINGSHOT ANOTHER WAVE OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION
LATER TODAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING AND BEING BECOMING PART OF A
LARGER UPPER TROUGH. OUR MOIST AIRMASS WILL UNDERGO VERY LITTLE
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS MODIFIED SUB-TROPICAL
REGIME HAS A CORRIDOR OF DRY AIR ATOP A DENSE AND VERY MOIST
BOUNDARY/SFC LAYER. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CARRY WAVES OF EMBEDDED
VORT MAXES...WHICH ARE ESSENTIALLY AREAS OF LIFT...BUT IN AN
INTERMITTENT AND RANDOM NATURE. LATER TODAY/THIS EVE...A MORE
COMPACT AREA OF UPPER ENERGY WILL BE SHOVED QUICKLY DOWN ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND OVER THE MID-ATLC REGION.

LIKE WED HOWEVER...THE UPPER LOW WILL FORCE THIS WAVE DOWN TOWARD
THE AREA BUT KIND OF STABLE COASTAL BLOCK WILL DISSIPATE THE ENERGY
AS IT APPROACHES THE ATLC COASTLINE. BUT BEFORE THEN...PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR THE INCOMING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO DEVELOP CONVECTION. ONE OF THE KEY FACTORS WILL
BE OUR HIGH TEMPS...AGAIN EXPECTED TO REPEAT IN THE M-U80S. THESE
VALUES COMBINED W/ SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE U60S/L70S WILL BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO AT LEAST BREAK THE WEAK CAP AND FORCE FOR THE
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ATMOS TO DEVELOP SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS. A
HANDFUL OF ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD DOT THE MAP OVER THE COMING
HRS...BUT NOT UNTIL MID-LATE AFTN IS MORE ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED. TIMING/LOCATIONS/INTENSITIES WILL DEPEND ON
EARLY OUTFLOWS AND STORM MOMENTUM FACTORS BUT THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR
WILL CERTAINLY BE ENOUGH /20-30KT BOUNDARY LAYER/ TO SUSTAIN A
LINEAR FEATURE.

AS W/ THE CONVECTION ON WED AFTN/EVE...THE ACTIVITY LEVEL WILL
QUICKLY DROP OFF AFT SUNSET AND W/IN A COUPLE HRS AFTERWARD.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP ONLY INTO THE U60S/L70S AGAIN SINCE
DEWPOINTS WON`T BUDGE - SETTING UP FOR ANOTHER WAVE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
ON FRI AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MOST SHORT/MED RANGE MODELS...INCLUDING THE TAIL END OF SOME LOCAL
WRF MEMBERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A FRI AFTN AND INTO LATE EVE
HRS HEIGHTENED LEVEL OF SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. POPS ARE HIGHER THAN THE GARDEN-VARIETY ISOLATED AFTN REGIME.
THIS COULD MEAN THAT A MORE STRATIFORM/DISSIPATED REGION OF EARLIER
CONVECTION WILL DROP A REGIONAL-SCALE BATCH OF LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN
OVER THE AREA...ESPEC ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA AS MODELS
SUGGEST.

INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI COULD ALSO
INHIBIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND LIMIT IT TO AREAS FURTHER S AND E
WHERE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE M80S. MODEL ADJUSTED VALUES
ARE GIVING L80S FOR HIGHS...ACCOUNTING FOR THE CLOUD COVER
INCREASE...A LIGHT NLY WIND THAT IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE ELY OVER
TIME AND CERTAINLY INTO THE LATE NIGHT HRS - WHICH IS A MORE STABLE
FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
H5 PTTN WL BE EVEN MORE AMPLIFIED IN THE XTNDD PD...W/ RDGG IN THE
CENTER OF THE CONUS AND TROFFING ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. THAT WL
PERMIT SFC HIPRES OVER THE CNDN MARITIMES AND DOWNEAST MAINE TO BLD
DOWN THE COAST. THEREFORE...AM BCMG INCRSGLY CONFIDENT THAT THE WET
PTTN OF THIS WK WL BREAK.

SAT WL BE THE TRANSITION DAY. WL STILL HV ELY SFC LOW AND MODEST
INSTBY. MEANWHILE...THE JET STREAM WL STILL BE OVHD...PROVING A ZONE
OF SHEAR. WITH A MARITIME AMS IN THE LLVL AND LIFT W/IN THE
COLUMN...NEED TO PAINT A GLOOMY PICTURE. WL BE HOLDING POPS AT
CHC...AND EMPHASIZING POINTS E OF THE BLURDG /UPSLP FLOW/. AM NOT
GOING AS LOW ON MAXT AS PSBL. SINCE AM NOT GOING FOR A WASHOUT...WL
BE HOLDING OUT SOME HOPE THAT THERE WL BE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR TEMPS
TO RISE FM DEWPTS. THOSE DEWPTS SHUD BE UPR 60S TO NEAR 70F...SO
ITLL BE A MUGGY DAY EVEN W/O SUNSHINE.

WL BE PUSHING PCPN BACK INTO THE MTNS SAT NGT-SUN AS RDGG BLDS.
STILL HV PROLONGED ELY FLOW...SO SUN WL BE THE DAY WHEN AIR TEMPS WL
BE STRUGGLING TO RISE ABV WATER TEMPS. THERE MAY BE ENUF AIR MVMT SO
THAT FOG WONT BE AN ISSUE SAT NGT. IF IT TURNS OUT THAT FLOW DCPLS
INSTEAD...IT WL BE A WHOLE DIFFERENT STORY.

SFC HIPRES WL RUN THE SHOW FOR THE REST OF THE XTNDD. AM MUCH MORE
GENEROUS W/ SUNSHINE. MAXT UPR 70S-LWR 80S/MIN-T 50S TO LWR 60S
STILL BELOW CLIMO...BUT REACHING TIME OF YR WHEN NRMLS STARTING TO
DROP.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

SKIES WILL WAVER IN/OUT OF PARTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SINCE WE
STILL HAVE A MOIST ATMOS. AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING
ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY...POTENTIALLY CARRYING ANOTHER WAVE
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS TO THE AREA. CONDS WILL IMPROVE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MORE DENSE CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY FRI. MORE SHOWER/TSTMS EXPECTED ON
FRI AFTN/EVE AS WELL.

SAT-SUN...LOCLDS AND VSBYS MAY BE AN ISSUE AS A MARINE AMS SPREADS
INLAND. THINK FLG RESTRICTIONS WL BE MORE PRONOUNCED AND PROLONGED
SAT.

MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...AS
WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF OVERNIGHT. A FEW TSTMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTN/EVE
OVER THE WATERS...CALM AGAIN OVERNIGHT W/ ANOTHER ROUND EXPECTED ON
FRI AFTN/EVE.

ELY FLOW WL DOMINATE THIS WKND AS HIPRES BLDS DOWN THE COAST. THERE
ARE SOME HINTS THAT WNDS MAY TOUCH SCA CRIT AT TIMES...PRIMARILY IN
THE MID BAY. THAT ALL DEPENDS UPON STRENGTH OF THE SFC HIGH AND
RELATIVE LOPRES OFF THE CAROLINAS. NOT TOO CONFIDENT AT A TIGHT
P-GRAD ATTM...AND HV CAPPED WNDS BLO SCA CRIT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LVLS ABOUT 3/4 FT ABV ASTRO NORMS. FRI MORNINGS TIDE WL BE
HIGH...BUT AM NOT ANTICIPATING REACHING CRITERIA ATTM.
HOWEVER...WE ARE WORKING ON A MARGIN OF INCHES...WHICH IS PUSHING
CURRENT SKILL LEVEL...SO ITS ADVISABLE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
SITUATION.

FLOW WL BE NLY FRI BEFORE ONSHORE /ELY/ FLOW RETURNS FOR THE WKND.
THUS...IF WATER DOESNT EVACUATE BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THERE COULD
BE MORE NUISANCE ISSUES THIS WKND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...GMS/HTS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 211432
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1032 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL WAVER ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AS RIPPLES
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE LAST IMPULSE WILL
TRAVERSE THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL PUSH IT SOUTH AS A
COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND WILL DOWN DOWN THE EAST
COAST THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PINWHEEL A FEW HUNDRED MILES TO OUR
NORTH WILL SLINGSHOT ANOTHER WAVE OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION
LATER TODAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING AND BEING BECOMING PART OF A
LARGER UPPER TROUGH. OUR MOIST AIRMASS WILL UNDERGO VERY LITTLE
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS MODIFIED SUB-TROPICAL
REGIME HAS A CORRIDOR OF DRY AIR ATOP A DENSE AND VERY MOIST
BOUNDARY/SFC LAYER. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CARRY WAVES OF EMBEDDED
VORT MAXES...WHICH ARE ESSENTIALLY AREAS OF LIFT...BUT IN AN
INTERMITTENT AND RANDOM NATURE. LATER TODAY/THIS EVE...A MORE
COMPACT AREA OF UPPER ENERGY WILL BE SHOVED QUICKLY DOWN ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND OVER THE MID-ATLC REGION.

LIKE WED HOWEVER...THE UPPER LOW WILL FORCE THIS WAVE DOWN TOWARD
THE AREA BUT KIND OF STABLE COASTAL BLOCK WILL DISSIPATE THE ENERGY
AS IT APPROACHES THE ATLC COASTLINE. BUT BEFORE THEN...PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR THE INCOMING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO DEVELOP CONVECTION. ONE OF THE KEY FACTORS WILL
BE OUR HIGH TEMPS...AGAIN EXPECTED TO REPEAT IN THE M-U80S. THESE
VALUES COMBINED W/ SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE U60S/L70S WILL BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO AT LEAST BREAK THE WEAK CAP AND FORCE FOR THE
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ATMOS TO DEVELOP SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS. A
HANDFUL OF ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD DOT THE MAP OVER THE COMING
HRS...BUT NOT UNTIL MID-LATE AFTN IS MORE ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED. TIMING/LOCATIONS/INTENSITIES WILL DEPEND ON
EARLY OUTFLOWS AND STORM MOMENTUM FACTORS BUT THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR
WILL CERTAINLY BE ENOUGH /20-30KT BOUNDARY LAYER/ TO SUSTAIN A
LINEAR FEATURE.

AS W/ THE CONVECTION ON WED AFTN/EVE...THE ACTIVITY LEVEL WILL
QUICKLY DROP OFF AFT SUNSET AND W/IN A COUPLE HRS AFTERWARD.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP ONLY INTO THE U60S/L70S AGAIN SINCE
DEWPOINTS WON`T BUDGE - SETTING UP FOR ANOTHER WAVE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
ON FRI AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MOST SHORT/MED RANGE MODELS...INCLUDING THE TAIL END OF SOME LOCAL
WRF MEMBERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A FRI AFTN AND INTO LATE EVE
HRS HEIGHTENED LEVEL OF SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. POPS ARE HIGHER THAN THE GARDEN-VARIETY ISOLATED AFTN REGIME.
THIS COULD MEAN THAT A MORE STRATIFORM/DISSIPATED REGION OF EARLIER
CONVECTION WILL DROP A REGIONAL-SCALE BATCH OF LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN
OVER THE AREA...ESPEC ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA AS MODELS
SUGGEST.

INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI COULD ALSO
INHIBIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND LIMIT IT TO AREAS FURTHER S AND E
WHERE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE M80S. MODEL ADJUSTED VALUES
ARE GIVING L80S FOR HIGHS...ACCOUNTING FOR THE CLOUD COVER
INCREASE...A LIGHT NLY WIND THAT IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE ELY OVER
TIME AND CERTAINLY INTO THE LATE NIGHT HRS - WHICH IS A MORE STABLE
FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
H5 PTTN WL BE EVEN MORE AMPLIFIED IN THE XTNDD PD...W/ RDGG IN THE
CENTER OF THE CONUS AND TROFFING ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. THAT WL
PERMIT SFC HIPRES OVER THE CNDN MARITIMES AND DOWNEAST MAINE TO BLD
DOWN THE COAST. THEREFORE...AM BCMG INCRSGLY CONFIDENT THAT THE WET
PTTN OF THIS WK WL BREAK.

SAT WL BE THE TRANSITION DAY. WL STILL HV ELY SFC LOW AND MODEST
INSTBY. MEANWHILE...THE JET STREAM WL STILL BE OVHD...PROVING A ZONE
OF SHEAR. WITH A MARITIME AMS IN THE LLVL AND LIFT W/IN THE
COLUMN...NEED TO PAINT A GLOOMY PICTURE. WL BE HOLDING POPS AT
CHC...AND EMPHASIZING POINTS E OF THE BLURDG /UPSLP FLOW/. AM NOT
GOING AS LOW ON MAXT AS PSBL. SINCE AM NOT GOING FOR A WASHOUT...WL
BE HOLDING OUT SOME HOPE THAT THERE WL BE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR TEMPS
TO RISE FM DEWPTS. THOSE DEWPTS SHUD BE UPR 60S TO NEAR 70F...SO
ITLL BE A MUGGY DAY EVEN W/O SUNSHINE.

WL BE PUSHING PCPN BACK INTO THE MTNS SAT NGT-SUN AS RDGG BLDS.
STILL HV PROLONGED ELY FLOW...SO SUN WL BE THE DAY WHEN AIR TEMPS WL
BE STRUGGLING TO RISE ABV WATER TEMPS. THERE MAY BE ENUF AIR MVMT SO
THAT FOG WONT BE AN ISSUE SAT NGT. IF IT TURNS OUT THAT FLOW DCPLS
INSTEAD...IT WL BE A WHOLE DIFFERENT STORY.

SFC HIPRES WL RUN THE SHOW FOR THE REST OF THE XTNDD. AM MUCH MORE
GENEROUS W/ SUNSHINE. MAXT UPR 70S-LWR 80S/MIN-T 50S TO LWR 60S
STILL BELOW CLIMO...BUT REACHING TIME OF YR WHEN NRMLS STARTING TO
DROP.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

SKIES WILL WAVER IN/OUT OF PARTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SINCE WE
STILL HAVE A MOIST ATMOS. AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING
ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY...POTENTIALLY CARRYING ANOTHER WAVE
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS TO THE AREA. CONDS WILL IMPROVE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MORE DENSE CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY FRI. MORE SHOWER/TSTMS EXPECTED ON
FRI AFTN/EVE AS WELL.

SAT-SUN...LOCLDS AND VSBYS MAY BE AN ISSUE AS A MARINE AMS SPREADS
INLAND. THINK FLG RESTRICTIONS WL BE MORE PRONOUNCED AND PROLONGED
SAT.

MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...AS
WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF OVERNIGHT. A FEW TSTMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTN/EVE
OVER THE WATERS...CALM AGAIN OVERNIGHT W/ ANOTHER ROUND EXPECTED ON
FRI AFTN/EVE.

ELY FLOW WL DOMINATE THIS WKND AS HIPRES BLDS DOWN THE COAST. THERE
ARE SOME HINTS THAT WNDS MAY TOUCH SCA CRIT AT TIMES...PRIMARILY IN
THE MID BAY. THAT ALL DEPENDS UPON STRENGTH OF THE SFC HIGH AND
RELATIVE LOPRES OFF THE CAROLINAS. NOT TOO CONFIDENT AT A TIGHT
P-GRAD ATTM...AND HV CAPPED WNDS BLO SCA CRIT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LVLS ABOUT 3/4 FT ABV ASTRO NORMS. FRI MORNINGS TIDE WL BE
HIGH...BUT AM NOT ANTICIPATING REACHING CRITERIA ATTM.
HOWEVER...WE ARE WORKING ON A MARGIN OF INCHES...WHICH IS PUSHING
CURRENT SKILL LEVEL...SO ITS ADVISABLE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
SITUATION.

FLOW WL BE NLY FRI BEFORE ONSHORE /ELY/ FLOW RETURNS FOR THE WKND.
THUS...IF WATER DOESNT EVACUATE BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THERE COULD
BE MORE NUISANCE ISSUES THIS WKND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...GMS/HTS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 211432
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1032 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL WAVER ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AS RIPPLES
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE LAST IMPULSE WILL
TRAVERSE THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL PUSH IT SOUTH AS A
COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND WILL DOWN DOWN THE EAST
COAST THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PINWHEEL A FEW HUNDRED MILES TO OUR
NORTH WILL SLINGSHOT ANOTHER WAVE OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION
LATER TODAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING AND BEING BECOMING PART OF A
LARGER UPPER TROUGH. OUR MOIST AIRMASS WILL UNDERGO VERY LITTLE
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS MODIFIED SUB-TROPICAL
REGIME HAS A CORRIDOR OF DRY AIR ATOP A DENSE AND VERY MOIST
BOUNDARY/SFC LAYER. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CARRY WAVES OF EMBEDDED
VORT MAXES...WHICH ARE ESSENTIALLY AREAS OF LIFT...BUT IN AN
INTERMITTENT AND RANDOM NATURE. LATER TODAY/THIS EVE...A MORE
COMPACT AREA OF UPPER ENERGY WILL BE SHOVED QUICKLY DOWN ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND OVER THE MID-ATLC REGION.

LIKE WED HOWEVER...THE UPPER LOW WILL FORCE THIS WAVE DOWN TOWARD
THE AREA BUT KIND OF STABLE COASTAL BLOCK WILL DISSIPATE THE ENERGY
AS IT APPROACHES THE ATLC COASTLINE. BUT BEFORE THEN...PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR THE INCOMING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO DEVELOP CONVECTION. ONE OF THE KEY FACTORS WILL
BE OUR HIGH TEMPS...AGAIN EXPECTED TO REPEAT IN THE M-U80S. THESE
VALUES COMBINED W/ SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE U60S/L70S WILL BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO AT LEAST BREAK THE WEAK CAP AND FORCE FOR THE
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ATMOS TO DEVELOP SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS. A
HANDFUL OF ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD DOT THE MAP OVER THE COMING
HRS...BUT NOT UNTIL MID-LATE AFTN IS MORE ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED. TIMING/LOCATIONS/INTENSITIES WILL DEPEND ON
EARLY OUTFLOWS AND STORM MOMENTUM FACTORS BUT THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR
WILL CERTAINLY BE ENOUGH /20-30KT BOUNDARY LAYER/ TO SUSTAIN A
LINEAR FEATURE.

AS W/ THE CONVECTION ON WED AFTN/EVE...THE ACTIVITY LEVEL WILL
QUICKLY DROP OFF AFT SUNSET AND W/IN A COUPLE HRS AFTERWARD.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP ONLY INTO THE U60S/L70S AGAIN SINCE
DEWPOINTS WON`T BUDGE - SETTING UP FOR ANOTHER WAVE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
ON FRI AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MOST SHORT/MED RANGE MODELS...INCLUDING THE TAIL END OF SOME LOCAL
WRF MEMBERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A FRI AFTN AND INTO LATE EVE
HRS HEIGHTENED LEVEL OF SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. POPS ARE HIGHER THAN THE GARDEN-VARIETY ISOLATED AFTN REGIME.
THIS COULD MEAN THAT A MORE STRATIFORM/DISSIPATED REGION OF EARLIER
CONVECTION WILL DROP A REGIONAL-SCALE BATCH OF LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN
OVER THE AREA...ESPEC ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA AS MODELS
SUGGEST.

INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI COULD ALSO
INHIBIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND LIMIT IT TO AREAS FURTHER S AND E
WHERE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE M80S. MODEL ADJUSTED VALUES
ARE GIVING L80S FOR HIGHS...ACCOUNTING FOR THE CLOUD COVER
INCREASE...A LIGHT NLY WIND THAT IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE ELY OVER
TIME AND CERTAINLY INTO THE LATE NIGHT HRS - WHICH IS A MORE STABLE
FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
H5 PTTN WL BE EVEN MORE AMPLIFIED IN THE XTNDD PD...W/ RDGG IN THE
CENTER OF THE CONUS AND TROFFING ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. THAT WL
PERMIT SFC HIPRES OVER THE CNDN MARITIMES AND DOWNEAST MAINE TO BLD
DOWN THE COAST. THEREFORE...AM BCMG INCRSGLY CONFIDENT THAT THE WET
PTTN OF THIS WK WL BREAK.

SAT WL BE THE TRANSITION DAY. WL STILL HV ELY SFC LOW AND MODEST
INSTBY. MEANWHILE...THE JET STREAM WL STILL BE OVHD...PROVING A ZONE
OF SHEAR. WITH A MARITIME AMS IN THE LLVL AND LIFT W/IN THE
COLUMN...NEED TO PAINT A GLOOMY PICTURE. WL BE HOLDING POPS AT
CHC...AND EMPHASIZING POINTS E OF THE BLURDG /UPSLP FLOW/. AM NOT
GOING AS LOW ON MAXT AS PSBL. SINCE AM NOT GOING FOR A WASHOUT...WL
BE HOLDING OUT SOME HOPE THAT THERE WL BE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR TEMPS
TO RISE FM DEWPTS. THOSE DEWPTS SHUD BE UPR 60S TO NEAR 70F...SO
ITLL BE A MUGGY DAY EVEN W/O SUNSHINE.

WL BE PUSHING PCPN BACK INTO THE MTNS SAT NGT-SUN AS RDGG BLDS.
STILL HV PROLONGED ELY FLOW...SO SUN WL BE THE DAY WHEN AIR TEMPS WL
BE STRUGGLING TO RISE ABV WATER TEMPS. THERE MAY BE ENUF AIR MVMT SO
THAT FOG WONT BE AN ISSUE SAT NGT. IF IT TURNS OUT THAT FLOW DCPLS
INSTEAD...IT WL BE A WHOLE DIFFERENT STORY.

SFC HIPRES WL RUN THE SHOW FOR THE REST OF THE XTNDD. AM MUCH MORE
GENEROUS W/ SUNSHINE. MAXT UPR 70S-LWR 80S/MIN-T 50S TO LWR 60S
STILL BELOW CLIMO...BUT REACHING TIME OF YR WHEN NRMLS STARTING TO
DROP.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

SKIES WILL WAVER IN/OUT OF PARTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SINCE WE
STILL HAVE A MOIST ATMOS. AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING
ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY...POTENTIALLY CARRYING ANOTHER WAVE
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS TO THE AREA. CONDS WILL IMPROVE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MORE DENSE CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY FRI. MORE SHOWER/TSTMS EXPECTED ON
FRI AFTN/EVE AS WELL.

SAT-SUN...LOCLDS AND VSBYS MAY BE AN ISSUE AS A MARINE AMS SPREADS
INLAND. THINK FLG RESTRICTIONS WL BE MORE PRONOUNCED AND PROLONGED
SAT.

MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...AS
WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF OVERNIGHT. A FEW TSTMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTN/EVE
OVER THE WATERS...CALM AGAIN OVERNIGHT W/ ANOTHER ROUND EXPECTED ON
FRI AFTN/EVE.

ELY FLOW WL DOMINATE THIS WKND AS HIPRES BLDS DOWN THE COAST. THERE
ARE SOME HINTS THAT WNDS MAY TOUCH SCA CRIT AT TIMES...PRIMARILY IN
THE MID BAY. THAT ALL DEPENDS UPON STRENGTH OF THE SFC HIGH AND
RELATIVE LOPRES OFF THE CAROLINAS. NOT TOO CONFIDENT AT A TIGHT
P-GRAD ATTM...AND HV CAPPED WNDS BLO SCA CRIT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LVLS ABOUT 3/4 FT ABV ASTRO NORMS. FRI MORNINGS TIDE WL BE
HIGH...BUT AM NOT ANTICIPATING REACHING CRITERIA ATTM.
HOWEVER...WE ARE WORKING ON A MARGIN OF INCHES...WHICH IS PUSHING
CURRENT SKILL LEVEL...SO ITS ADVISABLE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
SITUATION.

FLOW WL BE NLY FRI BEFORE ONSHORE /ELY/ FLOW RETURNS FOR THE WKND.
THUS...IF WATER DOESNT EVACUATE BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THERE COULD
BE MORE NUISANCE ISSUES THIS WKND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...GMS/HTS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 211432
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1032 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL WAVER ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AS RIPPLES
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE LAST IMPULSE WILL
TRAVERSE THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL PUSH IT SOUTH AS A
COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND WILL DOWN DOWN THE EAST
COAST THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PINWHEEL A FEW HUNDRED MILES TO OUR
NORTH WILL SLINGSHOT ANOTHER WAVE OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION
LATER TODAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING AND BEING BECOMING PART OF A
LARGER UPPER TROUGH. OUR MOIST AIRMASS WILL UNDERGO VERY LITTLE
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS MODIFIED SUB-TROPICAL
REGIME HAS A CORRIDOR OF DRY AIR ATOP A DENSE AND VERY MOIST
BOUNDARY/SFC LAYER. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CARRY WAVES OF EMBEDDED
VORT MAXES...WHICH ARE ESSENTIALLY AREAS OF LIFT...BUT IN AN
INTERMITTENT AND RANDOM NATURE. LATER TODAY/THIS EVE...A MORE
COMPACT AREA OF UPPER ENERGY WILL BE SHOVED QUICKLY DOWN ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND OVER THE MID-ATLC REGION.

LIKE WED HOWEVER...THE UPPER LOW WILL FORCE THIS WAVE DOWN TOWARD
THE AREA BUT KIND OF STABLE COASTAL BLOCK WILL DISSIPATE THE ENERGY
AS IT APPROACHES THE ATLC COASTLINE. BUT BEFORE THEN...PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR THE INCOMING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO DEVELOP CONVECTION. ONE OF THE KEY FACTORS WILL
BE OUR HIGH TEMPS...AGAIN EXPECTED TO REPEAT IN THE M-U80S. THESE
VALUES COMBINED W/ SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE U60S/L70S WILL BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO AT LEAST BREAK THE WEAK CAP AND FORCE FOR THE
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ATMOS TO DEVELOP SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS. A
HANDFUL OF ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD DOT THE MAP OVER THE COMING
HRS...BUT NOT UNTIL MID-LATE AFTN IS MORE ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED. TIMING/LOCATIONS/INTENSITIES WILL DEPEND ON
EARLY OUTFLOWS AND STORM MOMENTUM FACTORS BUT THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR
WILL CERTAINLY BE ENOUGH /20-30KT BOUNDARY LAYER/ TO SUSTAIN A
LINEAR FEATURE.

AS W/ THE CONVECTION ON WED AFTN/EVE...THE ACTIVITY LEVEL WILL
QUICKLY DROP OFF AFT SUNSET AND W/IN A COUPLE HRS AFTERWARD.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP ONLY INTO THE U60S/L70S AGAIN SINCE
DEWPOINTS WON`T BUDGE - SETTING UP FOR ANOTHER WAVE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
ON FRI AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MOST SHORT/MED RANGE MODELS...INCLUDING THE TAIL END OF SOME LOCAL
WRF MEMBERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A FRI AFTN AND INTO LATE EVE
HRS HEIGHTENED LEVEL OF SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. POPS ARE HIGHER THAN THE GARDEN-VARIETY ISOLATED AFTN REGIME.
THIS COULD MEAN THAT A MORE STRATIFORM/DISSIPATED REGION OF EARLIER
CONVECTION WILL DROP A REGIONAL-SCALE BATCH OF LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN
OVER THE AREA...ESPEC ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA AS MODELS
SUGGEST.

INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI COULD ALSO
INHIBIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND LIMIT IT TO AREAS FURTHER S AND E
WHERE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE M80S. MODEL ADJUSTED VALUES
ARE GIVING L80S FOR HIGHS...ACCOUNTING FOR THE CLOUD COVER
INCREASE...A LIGHT NLY WIND THAT IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE ELY OVER
TIME AND CERTAINLY INTO THE LATE NIGHT HRS - WHICH IS A MORE STABLE
FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
H5 PTTN WL BE EVEN MORE AMPLIFIED IN THE XTNDD PD...W/ RDGG IN THE
CENTER OF THE CONUS AND TROFFING ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. THAT WL
PERMIT SFC HIPRES OVER THE CNDN MARITIMES AND DOWNEAST MAINE TO BLD
DOWN THE COAST. THEREFORE...AM BCMG INCRSGLY CONFIDENT THAT THE WET
PTTN OF THIS WK WL BREAK.

SAT WL BE THE TRANSITION DAY. WL STILL HV ELY SFC LOW AND MODEST
INSTBY. MEANWHILE...THE JET STREAM WL STILL BE OVHD...PROVING A ZONE
OF SHEAR. WITH A MARITIME AMS IN THE LLVL AND LIFT W/IN THE
COLUMN...NEED TO PAINT A GLOOMY PICTURE. WL BE HOLDING POPS AT
CHC...AND EMPHASIZING POINTS E OF THE BLURDG /UPSLP FLOW/. AM NOT
GOING AS LOW ON MAXT AS PSBL. SINCE AM NOT GOING FOR A WASHOUT...WL
BE HOLDING OUT SOME HOPE THAT THERE WL BE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR TEMPS
TO RISE FM DEWPTS. THOSE DEWPTS SHUD BE UPR 60S TO NEAR 70F...SO
ITLL BE A MUGGY DAY EVEN W/O SUNSHINE.

WL BE PUSHING PCPN BACK INTO THE MTNS SAT NGT-SUN AS RDGG BLDS.
STILL HV PROLONGED ELY FLOW...SO SUN WL BE THE DAY WHEN AIR TEMPS WL
BE STRUGGLING TO RISE ABV WATER TEMPS. THERE MAY BE ENUF AIR MVMT SO
THAT FOG WONT BE AN ISSUE SAT NGT. IF IT TURNS OUT THAT FLOW DCPLS
INSTEAD...IT WL BE A WHOLE DIFFERENT STORY.

SFC HIPRES WL RUN THE SHOW FOR THE REST OF THE XTNDD. AM MUCH MORE
GENEROUS W/ SUNSHINE. MAXT UPR 70S-LWR 80S/MIN-T 50S TO LWR 60S
STILL BELOW CLIMO...BUT REACHING TIME OF YR WHEN NRMLS STARTING TO
DROP.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

SKIES WILL WAVER IN/OUT OF PARTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SINCE WE
STILL HAVE A MOIST ATMOS. AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING
ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY...POTENTIALLY CARRYING ANOTHER WAVE
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS TO THE AREA. CONDS WILL IMPROVE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MORE DENSE CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY FRI. MORE SHOWER/TSTMS EXPECTED ON
FRI AFTN/EVE AS WELL.

SAT-SUN...LOCLDS AND VSBYS MAY BE AN ISSUE AS A MARINE AMS SPREADS
INLAND. THINK FLG RESTRICTIONS WL BE MORE PRONOUNCED AND PROLONGED
SAT.

MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...AS
WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF OVERNIGHT. A FEW TSTMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTN/EVE
OVER THE WATERS...CALM AGAIN OVERNIGHT W/ ANOTHER ROUND EXPECTED ON
FRI AFTN/EVE.

ELY FLOW WL DOMINATE THIS WKND AS HIPRES BLDS DOWN THE COAST. THERE
ARE SOME HINTS THAT WNDS MAY TOUCH SCA CRIT AT TIMES...PRIMARILY IN
THE MID BAY. THAT ALL DEPENDS UPON STRENGTH OF THE SFC HIGH AND
RELATIVE LOPRES OFF THE CAROLINAS. NOT TOO CONFIDENT AT A TIGHT
P-GRAD ATTM...AND HV CAPPED WNDS BLO SCA CRIT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LVLS ABOUT 3/4 FT ABV ASTRO NORMS. FRI MORNINGS TIDE WL BE
HIGH...BUT AM NOT ANTICIPATING REACHING CRITERIA ATTM.
HOWEVER...WE ARE WORKING ON A MARGIN OF INCHES...WHICH IS PUSHING
CURRENT SKILL LEVEL...SO ITS ADVISABLE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
SITUATION.

FLOW WL BE NLY FRI BEFORE ONSHORE /ELY/ FLOW RETURNS FOR THE WKND.
THUS...IF WATER DOESNT EVACUATE BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THERE COULD
BE MORE NUISANCE ISSUES THIS WKND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...GMS/HTS







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 211408
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1008 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND IS SLOW TO
BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WARM FRONT HAS STALLED OVR THE FA...AND WILL RMN NRLY STATIONARY
TDA. EXPECT VRB CLDS TO PCLDY AGN TDA AS MORNING FOG/STRATUS
DISSIPATES. MOST OF THE DAY XPCD TO BE PCPN FREE.
HEATING...MODEST DEWPTS (FOR MID AUG) AND CONVERGENCE INVOF
STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY (OVR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF FA) XPCD TO RESULT
IN ISOLD TO PSBLY SCT CONVECTION BY LT THIS AFTN/EVE. WEAKENING
S/W FM THE WNW MAY BRING CONVECTION INTO FAR WNW AREAS LT IN THE
DAY AS WELL. HI TEMPS FM THE M80S AT THE CST...TO THE U80S TO L90S
INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NW FLO ALOFT RMNS FM TNGT INTO THE WKND...W/ SERIES OF WK IMPULSES
PASSING THROUGH THE RGN. INITIAL IMPULSE (WKNG S/W) MAY KEEP AT
LEAST ISOLD CONVECTION OVR THE FA TNGT. A 2ND WK S/W PUSHES
THROUGH THE FA ON FRI WILL PTNTL FOR ADDITIONAL ISOLD/SCT
CONVECTION BY AFTN/EVE HRS.

A MORE VIGOROUS WAVE DROPS ACROSS THE REGION FRI NGT INTO SAT AS
SFC BNDRY RMNS OVR THE FA. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE BEST CHC OF AND
GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
DURING THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD DUE TO MORE FAVORABLE/STRONGER UPPER
JET SUPPORT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY BEGINS
TO PUSH S TOWARD MDATLC RGN BY LT IN THE DAY. THIS WILL PUSH THE
REMNANT FRONT BACK S OF THE AREA.

HI TEMPS FRI MNLY IN THE M/U80S FRI...THEN FM THE L/M80S ON SAT
(PSBLY U70S ALG THE ATLC BEACHES ON THE ERN SHORE). LO TEMPS MNLY
BE IN THE U60S TO L70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DECREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP AND NEAR SEASONABLE...LATE SUMMER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST.

UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE CNTRL CONUS AND LOW PRESSURE/TROUGHING OFF THE NE COAST. FLOW
REMAINS BLOCKED OVER ERN CANADA AND THE NERN US...RESULTING IN
LITTLE PROGRESSION OF THE CNTRL CONUS RIDGE THRU THE PERIOD. THE
RESULT WILL BE ONGOING NWLY FLOW INTO THE EARLY PERIOD. BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL PUSH WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA SUN AS THE TROUGH
AMPLIFIES ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
SLIGHTLY WETTER SUN AFTER PREVIOUSLY BRINGING IN DRIER AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE STATES WILL RIDGE SWD OVER
THE LOCAL AREA IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH SUBSIDENCE INDICATED IN
MODEL SOUNDINGS. MOISTURE ALSO LOOKS TO BE ON THE DOWNTREND AS MODEL
DERIVED PWATS DROP BELOW 1.5 INCHES. WITH THAT SAID...SUN MAY END UP
BEING DRY...BUT WILL RETAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE PIEDMONT AND
COASTAL AREAS AS DISTURBANCES IN NWLY FLOW AND MODEL UNCERTAINTY
DECREASE CONFIDENCE. BETTER CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS HEADING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE CNTRL CONUS HIGH BEGINS TO NUDGE IN FROM
THE WEST AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WINS OUT. BEST MOISTURE ALSO GETS
SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. TREND CONTINUES INTO TUES AND WEDS AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD AND DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WIN OUT.

ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELD DAYTIME TEMPS GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THRU TUES (-1 STD DEV FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR). RETURN FLOW ON WEDS AND WARMING THICKNESSES PUSH TEMPS BACK
INTO THE MID 80S. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S THRU THE PERIOD
AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOW-MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...A FRNTAL BNDRY IS STALLED OVR THE MID ATLANTIC WITH HI
PRES LOCATED OVR THE NE STATES. THE COMBO OF CALM/LGT WINDS ALONG
THE FRNT AND DECENT LO-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS LED TO LO CIGS AND VSBYS
ERLY THIS MORNG. ANY MVFR/IFR SHOULD END BY LATER THIS
MORNG...WITH LGT WINDS AND SOME LO/MID-LEVEL CLOUDS STICKING
AROUND THRU THE DAY. ISO/SCT SHRAS/TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED MAINLY
LATE IN THE DAY OR DURING THE EVENG HOURS...BUT CHANCE IS NOT HI
ENUF TO WARRANT A MENTION IN THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...SCT MAINLY AFTN AND EVENING TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER INDICATED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A FEW
HOURS OF MVFR/IFR CAN BE EXPECTED AROUND SUNRISE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. A STATIONARY FRNT WILL
REMAIN JUST INLAND TDA OVR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WILL LEAD
TO LGT WINDS OVR ALL WTRS (AOB 10 KT) OUT OF THE S/SE. EXPECT MAINLY
2 FT SEAS (3 FT THIS MORNG OUT 20NM). THE FRNT STALLS OVR THE WTRS
TNGT AS A WAVE OF LO PRES DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRNT...VEERING WINDS
BEHIND THE LO TO AVG OUT OF THE N ON FRI. HI PRES OVR THE NE STATES
RIDGES SWD OVR THE WTRS FRI NGT INTO SAT AS LO PRES PUSHES OFF THE
NC COAST. A STRENGTHENING PRES GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
NELY WINDS OVER THE CSTAL WTRS LATE FRI NGT THRU SAT. HI PRES
REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE NE CST THRU ERLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. ATTM...SPEEDS APPEAR TO REMAIN
SUB-SCA...BUT SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BLD TO 4-5 FT LATE SAT THRU
MON.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS





000
FXUS61 KRNK 211406
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1006 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE GULF COAST
WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH INCREASING HEAT
AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS EMERGING FROM THE GULF COAST STATES NORTHWARD
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND AS FAR EAST AS THE WESTERN SLOPES OF
THE APPALACHIANS...INCLUDING THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS. A
STATIONARY FRONT WILL HANG OUT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS
BUILDING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE...THE STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...NORTHWEST TO NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.
THIS FRONT WILL BE THE CORRIDOR OF FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND OUR MAIN WEATHER MAKER FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT THURSDAY...

NOT A LOT OF CHANGE INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH MORNING SOUNDINGS
SHOWING DEEP NW FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND A WEAK MID LEVEL CAP
ALOFT. THIS TRAJECTORY HAS ACTED TO SHIFT THE BEST LOW LEVEL
THETA-E TO THE SOUTH/EAST WITH THE RESIDUAL SURFACE BOUNDARY JUST
OFF TO THE NE. EXPECT THIS ALONG WITH LACK OF MUCH FOCUS IN AN
INCREASING MIXED LAYER ENVIRONMENT TO LIMIT NEAR TERM CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AS THE MAIN FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE NW ALONG THE CONVEYOR
BELT OF IMPULSES RIDING OVER THE GULF STATES RIDGE. LATEST SHORT
RANGE GUIDANCE STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN IN THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF
THE NEXT WAVE(S) THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND
INTO THE MOUNTAINS LATER ON. HOWEVER CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT MAY
SEE AN OLD MCV SLIP SE TOWARD THE REGION MID/LATE AFTERNOON
PRECEDED BY A BROKEN BAND OF STORMS THAT COULD CROSS THE RIDGES
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS SIMILAR TO THE NEW 12Z NAM IN
BRINGING MORE ORGANIZED COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTH AFTER 21Z..WITH
SEVERAL OTHER SOLUTIONS HAVING A STRONGER MORE SOUTHWARD SPILLING
LINE OF TSRA LATER WITH THE COMPLEX NOW OVER INDIANA. THUS KEEPING
MAINLY WESTERN HIGHER CHANCE POPS WHILE TWEAKING DOWN CHANCES EAST
UNTIL LATER AS BEST COVERAGE MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL EARLY EVENING.

OTRW WILL SEE MUCH BETTER HEATING WITH ONLY THE FAR NW LIKELY TO
GET CLIPPED BY EARLY CLOUDS SPILLING ACROSS WEST VA AHEAD OF A
WEAKENING INITIAL WAVE. GIVEN 85H TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND 20C
COMBINED WITH DOWNSLOPE AND PLENTY OF INSOLATION ELSW SUPPORTS
HIGHS INTO THE 90S EAST WITH 80S WEST FOR THE MOST PART.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

IN SPITE OF THE BUSY LOOKING SYNOPSIS...NOT MUCH HAPPENING ACROSS
OUR AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE WAS SOME PATCHY FOG AND
STRATUS...BUT A DENSE AREA OF CIRRUS MOVED OVERHEAD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT LIMITING RADIATIVE EFFECTS THUS PREVENTING FOG FROM
BECOMING DENSE. ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD QUICKLY DISPERSE AFTER
SUNRISE.

SHALLOW EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO WEST
NORTHWEST WINDS LATER THIS MORNING AND DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY...WINDS
7-14 MPH...AND GUSTY NEAR THE RIDGE CRESTS. THE DEEPER
FLOW...WELL ALOFT...IS ALSO FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
TRANSPORT DEBRIS CLOUDINESS DOWNSTREAM FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS...CLOUD LAYERS MAINLY ABOVE 10KFT.

WITH WINDS OUT OF THE WEST TODAY...THIS WILL CREATE DOWNSLOPE
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AND SUBSIDENCE. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF LOCAL STORM DEVELOPMENT DUE TO THIS DOWNWARD VERTICAL
MOTION. PRIMARY AREA TO WATCH FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
VCNTY OF STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. STORMS
WHICH DEVELOP VCNTY OF THIS BOUNDARY...ACROSS IL/IN/OH/KY...WILL
MOVE DOWNSTREAM TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS EVENING AND
DURING THE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FROM WEST
VIRGINIA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...THE THREAT TRANSITIONING
DOWNSTREAM INTO VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. HELD OFF ON
ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF PRECIP EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE UNTIL
AFTER 4PM.

STORMS WHICH DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MAY BECOME ORGANIZED
INTO AN MCS...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. IF THIS OCCURS...THIS
COULD TRANSLATE INTO A SEVERE THREAT FOR OUR FCST AREA...THE
PRIMARY THREAT BEING WIND.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GET A BOOST BY THE RELATIVELY STRONG
DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY WIND...READINGS TESTING 90 ROA/LYH/DAN...AND
WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE MTNS. THE GFS MODEL INDICATES QUITE
A BIT OF DEBRIS CLOUDINESS DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF THE STORM
ACTIVITY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...SO THIS MAY INHIBIT FULL SENSIBLE
HEATING. NEVER THE LESS...LOOKING AT A WARM AFTERNOON...
TEMPERATURES RESEMBLING SOMETHING MORE TYPICAL OF AUGUST. WITH
CLOUDS AROUND TONIGHT...READINGS SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH BELOW 70...
WITH A RANGE OF 65 TO 70 FITTING PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...

THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO OFFER AN ACTIVE
WEATHER REGIME. STILL ON FRIDAY...THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND.
A BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE REGION ITSELF WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF PERIODIC SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
RIDING SOUTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL GIVE SOME
PARTS OF OUR REGION LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY.

THE PAST FEW DAYS...GUIDANCE HAS PRESENTED A CORNUCOPIA OF SOLUTIONS
REGARDING TIMING AND TRACK OF THESE IMPULSES OVER OR NEAR OUR
REGION. THE OFFERINGS BY THE 00Z/8PM MODEL RUNS ARE NOT MATCHING
EXACTLY...BUT THEY CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS A CONSENSUS THAT THEIR
EARLIER COUNTERPARTS ALSO HAD BEEN NOTING. FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY EVENING...OR OVERNIGHT...IS A TIME WORTH WATCHING FOR ONE
SUCH MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IMPACTING THE
AREA. THE FOCUS FOR LOCATION IS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE REGION. ANOTHER TIME TO WATCH IS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON
SATURDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL HAVE STARTED TO ENTER THE
REGION AND PROGRESS TO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA BY THE
AFTERNOON. ITS POSITION THERE WILL ADD A GREATER FOCUS TO COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY.

ONCE WE PROGRESS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...THIS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL HAVE CONTINUED ITS PUSH
WESTWARD THROUGH ALL...OR MOST OF THE REGION. MODEL CONSENSUS
PLACES IT ALONG A N-S ORIENTATION FROM ROUGHLY THE GREAT SMOKY
MOUNTAINS NORTH INTO THE COAL COUNTRY OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS
TRANSITION WILL PLACE MOST OF OUR REGION WITHIN A MOIST LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW THAT WILL KEEP THE AREA STABLE...SOCKED IN WITH
CLOUDS...COOLER...WITH EITHER LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE....ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS RULE MAY BE AREAS
SUCH AS TAZEWELL...RICHLANDS...AND MARION VIRGINIA. THIS AREA MAY BE
UNDER...OR CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE FRONT...FOR MILDER TEMPERATURES...A
BIT OF INSTABILITY...WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL TREND COOLER DURING THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY. ON SUNDAY HAVE GONE WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
THE EXCEPTION BEING CLOSER TO RICHLANDS WHERE THE FORECAST WILL
REFLECT NUMBERS AROUND GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 500 MB
HEIGHTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEGIN TO RISE ON TUESDAY WITH THE
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND WEDGED DOWN THE
APPALACHIANS THROUGH TUESDAY. BY THURSDAY A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH WILL
BE IN PLACE.

CHALLENGING TO TIME SHORT WAVES COMING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE.
WPC WAS FAVORING A BLEND OF ENSEMBLE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS KEEPS FORECAST AREA IN A PERSISTENT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME WILL BE
EMPHASIZING SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST CHANCE IN THIS TIME FRAME.

WILL BE WARMING UP CLOSER TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 800 AM EDT THURSDAY...

SHALLOW EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO WEST
NORTHWEST WINDS LATER THIS MORNING. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY...WINDS 6-12 KTS...AND GUSTY NEAR THE
RIDGE CRESTS. THE DEEPER FLOW...WELL ALOFT...IS ALSO FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL TRANSPORT DEBRIS CLOUDINESS DOWNSTREAM FROM
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS...CLOUD
LAYERS MAINLY ABOVE 10KFT.

WITH WINDS OUT OF THE WEST TODAY...THIS WILL CREATE DOWNSLOPE
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AND SUBSIDENCE. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF LOCAL STORM ACTIVITY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...DUE TO THIS
DOWNWARD VERTICAL MOTION. THE SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
TOWARD SUNSET...THUS POTENTIAL FOR STORM ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY VCNTY OF STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. STORMS WHICH DEVELOP VCNTY
OF THIS BOUNDARY...ACROSS IL/IN/OH/KY...WILL MOVE DOWNSTREAM
TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FROM WEST
VIRGINIA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...THE THREAT TRANSITIONING
DOWNSTREAM INTO VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE EVENING.
INTRODUCED TSRA FOR THE WV TERMINALS BETWEEN 18-20Z/2-4PM THEN
INTO THE VA TERMINALS BETWEEN 20-22Z/4-6PM.

EXTENDED AVIATION...

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH PERIODICALLY AND
INTERACTING WITH A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO
THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR...EXPECT STRATUS AND FOG
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR MOST
PRONOUNCED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 9AM EACH DAY. MODELS ARE INDICATED
THAT A DEEPER EASTERLY SORT OF WIND FLOW WILL SETUP FOR THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS SUGGEST THAT LOW CIGS MAY PERSIST EVEN
DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD
MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND DUE TO MOISTURE
BANKING UP AGAINST THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...JH/PM
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...PM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 211406
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1006 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE GULF COAST
WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH INCREASING HEAT
AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS EMERGING FROM THE GULF COAST STATES NORTHWARD
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND AS FAR EAST AS THE WESTERN SLOPES OF
THE APPALACHIANS...INCLUDING THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS. A
STATIONARY FRONT WILL HANG OUT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS
BUILDING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE...THE STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...NORTHWEST TO NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.
THIS FRONT WILL BE THE CORRIDOR OF FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND OUR MAIN WEATHER MAKER FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT THURSDAY...

NOT A LOT OF CHANGE INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH MORNING SOUNDINGS
SHOWING DEEP NW FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND A WEAK MID LEVEL CAP
ALOFT. THIS TRAJECTORY HAS ACTED TO SHIFT THE BEST LOW LEVEL
THETA-E TO THE SOUTH/EAST WITH THE RESIDUAL SURFACE BOUNDARY JUST
OFF TO THE NE. EXPECT THIS ALONG WITH LACK OF MUCH FOCUS IN AN
INCREASING MIXED LAYER ENVIRONMENT TO LIMIT NEAR TERM CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AS THE MAIN FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE NW ALONG THE CONVEYOR
BELT OF IMPULSES RIDING OVER THE GULF STATES RIDGE. LATEST SHORT
RANGE GUIDANCE STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN IN THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF
THE NEXT WAVE(S) THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND
INTO THE MOUNTAINS LATER ON. HOWEVER CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT MAY
SEE AN OLD MCV SLIP SE TOWARD THE REGION MID/LATE AFTERNOON
PRECEDED BY A BROKEN BAND OF STORMS THAT COULD CROSS THE RIDGES
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS SIMILAR TO THE NEW 12Z NAM IN
BRINGING MORE ORGANIZED COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTH AFTER 21Z..WITH
SEVERAL OTHER SOLUTIONS HAVING A STRONGER MORE SOUTHWARD SPILLING
LINE OF TSRA LATER WITH THE COMPLEX NOW OVER INDIANA. THUS KEEPING
MAINLY WESTERN HIGHER CHANCE POPS WHILE TWEAKING DOWN CHANCES EAST
UNTIL LATER AS BEST COVERAGE MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL EARLY EVENING.

OTRW WILL SEE MUCH BETTER HEATING WITH ONLY THE FAR NW LIKELY TO
GET CLIPPED BY EARLY CLOUDS SPILLING ACROSS WEST VA AHEAD OF A
WEAKENING INITIAL WAVE. GIVEN 85H TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND 20C
COMBINED WITH DOWNSLOPE AND PLENTY OF INSOLATION ELSW SUPPORTS
HIGHS INTO THE 90S EAST WITH 80S WEST FOR THE MOST PART.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

IN SPITE OF THE BUSY LOOKING SYNOPSIS...NOT MUCH HAPPENING ACROSS
OUR AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE WAS SOME PATCHY FOG AND
STRATUS...BUT A DENSE AREA OF CIRRUS MOVED OVERHEAD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT LIMITING RADIATIVE EFFECTS THUS PREVENTING FOG FROM
BECOMING DENSE. ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD QUICKLY DISPERSE AFTER
SUNRISE.

SHALLOW EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO WEST
NORTHWEST WINDS LATER THIS MORNING AND DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY...WINDS
7-14 MPH...AND GUSTY NEAR THE RIDGE CRESTS. THE DEEPER
FLOW...WELL ALOFT...IS ALSO FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
TRANSPORT DEBRIS CLOUDINESS DOWNSTREAM FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS...CLOUD LAYERS MAINLY ABOVE 10KFT.

WITH WINDS OUT OF THE WEST TODAY...THIS WILL CREATE DOWNSLOPE
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AND SUBSIDENCE. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF LOCAL STORM DEVELOPMENT DUE TO THIS DOWNWARD VERTICAL
MOTION. PRIMARY AREA TO WATCH FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
VCNTY OF STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. STORMS
WHICH DEVELOP VCNTY OF THIS BOUNDARY...ACROSS IL/IN/OH/KY...WILL
MOVE DOWNSTREAM TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS EVENING AND
DURING THE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FROM WEST
VIRGINIA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...THE THREAT TRANSITIONING
DOWNSTREAM INTO VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. HELD OFF ON
ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF PRECIP EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE UNTIL
AFTER 4PM.

STORMS WHICH DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MAY BECOME ORGANIZED
INTO AN MCS...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. IF THIS OCCURS...THIS
COULD TRANSLATE INTO A SEVERE THREAT FOR OUR FCST AREA...THE
PRIMARY THREAT BEING WIND.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GET A BOOST BY THE RELATIVELY STRONG
DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY WIND...READINGS TESTING 90 ROA/LYH/DAN...AND
WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE MTNS. THE GFS MODEL INDICATES QUITE
A BIT OF DEBRIS CLOUDINESS DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF THE STORM
ACTIVITY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...SO THIS MAY INHIBIT FULL SENSIBLE
HEATING. NEVER THE LESS...LOOKING AT A WARM AFTERNOON...
TEMPERATURES RESEMBLING SOMETHING MORE TYPICAL OF AUGUST. WITH
CLOUDS AROUND TONIGHT...READINGS SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH BELOW 70...
WITH A RANGE OF 65 TO 70 FITTING PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...

THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO OFFER AN ACTIVE
WEATHER REGIME. STILL ON FRIDAY...THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND.
A BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE REGION ITSELF WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF PERIODIC SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
RIDING SOUTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL GIVE SOME
PARTS OF OUR REGION LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY.

THE PAST FEW DAYS...GUIDANCE HAS PRESENTED A CORNUCOPIA OF SOLUTIONS
REGARDING TIMING AND TRACK OF THESE IMPULSES OVER OR NEAR OUR
REGION. THE OFFERINGS BY THE 00Z/8PM MODEL RUNS ARE NOT MATCHING
EXACTLY...BUT THEY CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS A CONSENSUS THAT THEIR
EARLIER COUNTERPARTS ALSO HAD BEEN NOTING. FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY EVENING...OR OVERNIGHT...IS A TIME WORTH WATCHING FOR ONE
SUCH MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IMPACTING THE
AREA. THE FOCUS FOR LOCATION IS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE REGION. ANOTHER TIME TO WATCH IS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON
SATURDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL HAVE STARTED TO ENTER THE
REGION AND PROGRESS TO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA BY THE
AFTERNOON. ITS POSITION THERE WILL ADD A GREATER FOCUS TO COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY.

ONCE WE PROGRESS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...THIS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL HAVE CONTINUED ITS PUSH
WESTWARD THROUGH ALL...OR MOST OF THE REGION. MODEL CONSENSUS
PLACES IT ALONG A N-S ORIENTATION FROM ROUGHLY THE GREAT SMOKY
MOUNTAINS NORTH INTO THE COAL COUNTRY OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS
TRANSITION WILL PLACE MOST OF OUR REGION WITHIN A MOIST LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW THAT WILL KEEP THE AREA STABLE...SOCKED IN WITH
CLOUDS...COOLER...WITH EITHER LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE....ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS RULE MAY BE AREAS
SUCH AS TAZEWELL...RICHLANDS...AND MARION VIRGINIA. THIS AREA MAY BE
UNDER...OR CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE FRONT...FOR MILDER TEMPERATURES...A
BIT OF INSTABILITY...WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL TREND COOLER DURING THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY. ON SUNDAY HAVE GONE WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
THE EXCEPTION BEING CLOSER TO RICHLANDS WHERE THE FORECAST WILL
REFLECT NUMBERS AROUND GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 500 MB
HEIGHTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEGIN TO RISE ON TUESDAY WITH THE
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND WEDGED DOWN THE
APPALACHIANS THROUGH TUESDAY. BY THURSDAY A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH WILL
BE IN PLACE.

CHALLENGING TO TIME SHORT WAVES COMING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE.
WPC WAS FAVORING A BLEND OF ENSEMBLE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS KEEPS FORECAST AREA IN A PERSISTENT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME WILL BE
EMPHASIZING SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST CHANCE IN THIS TIME FRAME.

WILL BE WARMING UP CLOSER TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 800 AM EDT THURSDAY...

SHALLOW EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO WEST
NORTHWEST WINDS LATER THIS MORNING. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY...WINDS 6-12 KTS...AND GUSTY NEAR THE
RIDGE CRESTS. THE DEEPER FLOW...WELL ALOFT...IS ALSO FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL TRANSPORT DEBRIS CLOUDINESS DOWNSTREAM FROM
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS...CLOUD
LAYERS MAINLY ABOVE 10KFT.

WITH WINDS OUT OF THE WEST TODAY...THIS WILL CREATE DOWNSLOPE
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AND SUBSIDENCE. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF LOCAL STORM ACTIVITY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...DUE TO THIS
DOWNWARD VERTICAL MOTION. THE SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
TOWARD SUNSET...THUS POTENTIAL FOR STORM ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY VCNTY OF STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. STORMS WHICH DEVELOP VCNTY
OF THIS BOUNDARY...ACROSS IL/IN/OH/KY...WILL MOVE DOWNSTREAM
TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FROM WEST
VIRGINIA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...THE THREAT TRANSITIONING
DOWNSTREAM INTO VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE EVENING.
INTRODUCED TSRA FOR THE WV TERMINALS BETWEEN 18-20Z/2-4PM THEN
INTO THE VA TERMINALS BETWEEN 20-22Z/4-6PM.

EXTENDED AVIATION...

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH PERIODICALLY AND
INTERACTING WITH A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO
THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR...EXPECT STRATUS AND FOG
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR MOST
PRONOUNCED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 9AM EACH DAY. MODELS ARE INDICATED
THAT A DEEPER EASTERLY SORT OF WIND FLOW WILL SETUP FOR THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS SUGGEST THAT LOW CIGS MAY PERSIST EVEN
DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD
MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND DUE TO MOISTURE
BANKING UP AGAINST THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...JH/PM
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...PM



000
FXUS61 KLWX 211248
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
848 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL WAVER ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AS RIPPLES
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE LAST IMPULSE WILL
TRAVERSE THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL PUSH IT SOUTH AS A
COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND WILL DOWN DOWN THE EAST
COAST THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

TRAFFIC CAMS ARND THE AREA SHOW THAT FOG IN THE CENTRAL SHEN VLLY
IS NO LONGER DENSE - ALTHO CHO STILL REPORTING 1/2SM THE TRAFFIC
CAMS IN THAT AREA ARE SUNNY...OR AT LEAST NOT FOGGY. CLOSER TO THE
MASON-DIXON LN THE FOG RMNS. AS A RESULT XNTD THE ADVSRY UNTIL 10
AM IN WSTRN MD/ERN PANHANDLE OF WV.

PREV DISC...
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PINWHEEL A FEW HUNDRED MILES TO OUR
NORTH WILL SLINGSHOT ANOTHER WAVE OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION
LATER TODAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING AND BEING BECOMING PART OF A
LARGER UPPER TROUGH. OUR MOIST AIRMASS WILL UNDERGO VERY LITTLE
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS MODIFIED SUB-TROPICAL
REGIME HAS A CORRIDOR OF DRY AIR ATOP A DENSE AND VERY MOIST
BOUNDARY/SFC LAYER. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CARRY WAVES OF EMBEDDED
VORT MAXES...WHICH ARE ESSENTIALLY AREAS OF LIFT...BUT IN AN
INTERMITTENT AND RANDOM NATURE. LATER TODAY/THIS EVE...A MORE
COMPACT AREA OF UPPER ENERGY WILL BE SHOVED QUICKLY DOWN ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND OVER THE MID-ATLC REGION.

LIKE WED HOWEVER...THE UPPER LOW WILL FORCE THIS WAVE DOWN TOWARD
THE AREA BUT KIND OF STABLE COASTAL BLOCK WILL DISSIPATE THE ENERGY
AS IT APPROACHES THE ATLC COASTLINE. BUT BEFORE THEN...PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR THE INCOMING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO DEVELOP CONVECTION. ONE OF THE KEY FACTORS WILL
BE OUR HIGH TEMPS...AGAIN EXPECTED TO REPEAT IN THE M-U80S. THESE
VALUES COMBINED W/ SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE U60S/L70S WILL BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO AT LEAST BREAK THE WEAK CAP AND FORCE FOR THE
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ATMOS TO DEVELOP SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS. A
HANDFUL OF ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD DOT THE MAP OVER THE COMING
HRS...BUT NOT UNTIL MID-LATE AFTN IS MORE ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED. TIMING/LOCATIONS/INTENSITIES WILL DEPEND ON
EARLY OUTFLOWS AND STORM MOMENTUM FACTORS BUT THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR
WILL CERTAINLY BE ENOUGH /20-30KT BOUNDARY LAYER/ TO SUSTAIN A
LINEAR FEATURE.

AS W/ THE CONVECTION ON WED AFTN/EVE...THE ACTIVITY LEVEL WILL
QUICKLY DROP OFF AFT SUNSET AND W/IN A COUPLE HRS AFTERWARD.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP ONLY INTO THE U60S/L70S AGAIN SINCE
DEWPOINTS WON`T BUDGE - SETTING UP FOR ANOTHER WAVE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
ON FRI AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MOST SHORT/MED RANGE MODELS...INCLUDING THE TAIL END OF SOME LOCAL
WRF MEMBERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A FRI AFTN AND INTO LATE EVE
HRS HEIGHTENED LEVEL OF SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. POPS ARE HIGHER THAN THE GARDEN-VARIETY ISOLATED AFTN REGIME.
THIS COULD MEAN THAT A MORE STRATIFORM/DISSIPATED REGION OF EARLIER
CONVECTION WILL DROP A REGIONAL-SCALE BATCH OF LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN
OVER THE AREA...ESPEC ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA AS MODELS
SUGGEST.

INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI COULD ALSO
INHIBIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND LIMIT IT TO AREAS FURTHER S AND E
WHERE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE M80S. MODEL ADJUSTED VALUES
ARE GIVING L80S FOR HIGHS...ACCOUNTING FOR THE CLOUD COVER
INCREASE...A LIGHT NLY WIND THAT IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE ELY OVER
TIME AND CERTAINLY INTO THE LATE NIGHT HRS - WHICH IS A MORE STABLE
FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
H5 PTTN WL BE EVEN MORE AMPLIFIED IN THE XTNDD PD...W/ RDGG IN THE
CENTER OF THE CONUS AND TROFFING ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. THAT WL
PERMIT SFC HIPRES OVER THE CNDN MARITIMES AND DOWNEAST MAINE TO BLD
DOWN THE COAST. THEREFORE...AM BCMG INCRSGLY CONFIDENT THAT THE WET
PTTN OF THIS WK WL BREAK.

SAT WL BE THE TRANSITION DAY. WL STILL HV ELY SFC LOW AND MODEST
INSTBY. MEANWHILE...THE JET STREAM WL STILL BE OVHD...PROVING A ZONE
OF SHEAR. WITH A MARITIME AMS IN THE LLVL AND LIFT W/IN THE
COLUMN...NEED TO PAINT A GLOOMY PICTURE. WL BE HOLDING POPS AT
CHC...AND EMPHASIZING POINTS E OF THE BLURDG /UPSLP FLOW/. AM NOT
GOING AS LOW ON MAXT AS PSBL. SINCE AM NOT GOING FOR A WASHOUT...WL
BE HOLDING OUT SOME HOPE THAT THERE WL BE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR TEMPS
TO RISE FM DEWPTS. THOSE DEWPTS SHUD BE UPR 60S TO NEAR 70F...SO
ITLL BE A MUGGY DAY EVEN W/O SUNSHINE.

WL BE PUSHING PCPN BACK INTO THE MTNS SAT NGT-SUN AS RDGG BLDS.
STILL HV PROLONGED ELY FLOW...SO SUN WL BE THE DAY WHEN AIR TEMPS WL
BE STRUGGLING TO RISE ABV WATER TEMPS. THERE MAY BE ENUF AIR MVMT SO
THAT FOG WONT BE AN ISSUE SAT NGT. IF IT TURNS OUT THAT FLOW DCPLS
INSTEAD...IT WL BE A WHOLE DIFFERENT STORY.

SFC HIPRES WL RUN THE SHOW FOR THE REST OF THE XTNDD. AM MUCH MORE
GENEROUS W/ SUNSHINE. MAXT UPR 70S-LWR 80S/MIN-T 50S TO LWR 60S
STILL BELOW CLIMO...BUT REACHING TIME OF YR WHEN NRMLS STARTING TO
DROP.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MRB/CHO STILL REPORTING DENSE FOG. THIS SHOULD LIFT AS THE MRNG
PROGRESSES.

SKIES AFTER SUNRISE WILL WAVER IN/OUT OF PARTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY
CLOUDY SINCE WE STILL HAVE A MOIST ATMOS. AN UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY...POTENTIALLY
CARRYING ANOTHER WAVE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS TO THE AREA. CONDS WILL
IMPROVE AGAIN OVERNIGHT...THOUGH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MORE
DENSE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY FRI. MORE SHOWER/TSTMS
EXPECTED ON FRI AFTN/EVE AS WELL.

SAT-SUN...LOCLDS AND VSBYS MAY BE AN ISSUE AS A MARINE AMS SPREADS
INLAND. THINK FLG RESTRICTIONS WL BE MORE PRONOUNCED AND PROLONGED
SAT.

MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...AS
WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF OVERNIGHT. A FEW TSTMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTN/EVE
OVER THE WATERS...CALM AGAIN OVERNIGHT W/ ANOTHER ROUND EXPECTED ON
FRI AFTN/EVE.

ELY FLOW WL DOMINATE THIS WKND AS HIPRES BLDS DOWN THE COAST. THERE
ARE SOME HINTS THAT WNDS MAY TOUCH SCA CRIT AT TIMES...PRIMARILY IN
THE MID BAY. THAT ALL DEPENDS UPON STRENGTH OF THE SFC HIGH AND
RELATIVE LOPRES OFF THE CAROLINAS. NOT TOO CONFIDENT AT A TIGHT
P-GRAD ATTM...AND HV CAPPED WNDS BLO SCA CRIT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LVLS ABOUT 3/4 TO 1 FT ABV ASTRO NORMS. THAT PLACED ANNAPOLIS
AT RISK FOR THE EARLY MORNING TIDE CYCLE. GAUGE READINGS CAME BACK
ARND MIDNGT...AND WE/RE TOPPING OFF JUST ABOVE MINOR CRITERIA.
DEPARTURES ELSEWHERE SHOULD NOT TRIGGER ANY ADVYS...BUT A FEW
CAUTION STAGES SHOULD BE REACHED. ONLY OTHER CONCERN MAY BE
ALEXANDRIA/SWDC...WHERE A 1.1 FT DEPARTURE WOULD TIP THE SCALE.
THINK WE MAY BE ABLE TO SNEAK THAT ONE OUT...BUT ADMITTEDLY ITS
GONNA BE CLOSE.

WE WILL HV SLY FLOW TODAY BECOMING LIGHT TNGT. FORTUNATELY THE 2ND
TIDE CYCLE OF THE DAY IS THE LOWER OF THE TWO ASTRONOMICALLY.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING WE WL HV JUST ENOUGH OPPORTUNITY FOR A LITTLE
WATER TO OOZE OUT OF THE ESTUARY BY THEN. SO...TOMORROW MORNINGS
TIDE WL BE HIGH...BUT AM NOT ANTICIPATING REACHING CRITERIA ATTM.
HOWEVER...WE ARE WORKING ON A MARGIN OF INCHES...WHICH IS PUSHING
CURRENT SKILL LEVEL...SO ITS ADVISABLE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
SITUATION.

FLOW WL BE NLY FRI BEFORE ONSHORE /ELY/ FLOW RETURNS FOR THE WKND.
THUS...IF WATER DOESNT EVACUATE BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THERE COULD
BE MORE NUISANCE ISSUES THIS WKND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ003.
VA...NONE.
WV...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ051>053.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...GMS/HTS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 211248
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
848 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL WAVER ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AS RIPPLES
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE LAST IMPULSE WILL
TRAVERSE THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL PUSH IT SOUTH AS A
COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND WILL DOWN DOWN THE EAST
COAST THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

TRAFFIC CAMS ARND THE AREA SHOW THAT FOG IN THE CENTRAL SHEN VLLY
IS NO LONGER DENSE - ALTHO CHO STILL REPORTING 1/2SM THE TRAFFIC
CAMS IN THAT AREA ARE SUNNY...OR AT LEAST NOT FOGGY. CLOSER TO THE
MASON-DIXON LN THE FOG RMNS. AS A RESULT XNTD THE ADVSRY UNTIL 10
AM IN WSTRN MD/ERN PANHANDLE OF WV.

PREV DISC...
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PINWHEEL A FEW HUNDRED MILES TO OUR
NORTH WILL SLINGSHOT ANOTHER WAVE OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION
LATER TODAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING AND BEING BECOMING PART OF A
LARGER UPPER TROUGH. OUR MOIST AIRMASS WILL UNDERGO VERY LITTLE
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS MODIFIED SUB-TROPICAL
REGIME HAS A CORRIDOR OF DRY AIR ATOP A DENSE AND VERY MOIST
BOUNDARY/SFC LAYER. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CARRY WAVES OF EMBEDDED
VORT MAXES...WHICH ARE ESSENTIALLY AREAS OF LIFT...BUT IN AN
INTERMITTENT AND RANDOM NATURE. LATER TODAY/THIS EVE...A MORE
COMPACT AREA OF UPPER ENERGY WILL BE SHOVED QUICKLY DOWN ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND OVER THE MID-ATLC REGION.

LIKE WED HOWEVER...THE UPPER LOW WILL FORCE THIS WAVE DOWN TOWARD
THE AREA BUT KIND OF STABLE COASTAL BLOCK WILL DISSIPATE THE ENERGY
AS IT APPROACHES THE ATLC COASTLINE. BUT BEFORE THEN...PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR THE INCOMING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO DEVELOP CONVECTION. ONE OF THE KEY FACTORS WILL
BE OUR HIGH TEMPS...AGAIN EXPECTED TO REPEAT IN THE M-U80S. THESE
VALUES COMBINED W/ SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE U60S/L70S WILL BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO AT LEAST BREAK THE WEAK CAP AND FORCE FOR THE
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ATMOS TO DEVELOP SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS. A
HANDFUL OF ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD DOT THE MAP OVER THE COMING
HRS...BUT NOT UNTIL MID-LATE AFTN IS MORE ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED. TIMING/LOCATIONS/INTENSITIES WILL DEPEND ON
EARLY OUTFLOWS AND STORM MOMENTUM FACTORS BUT THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR
WILL CERTAINLY BE ENOUGH /20-30KT BOUNDARY LAYER/ TO SUSTAIN A
LINEAR FEATURE.

AS W/ THE CONVECTION ON WED AFTN/EVE...THE ACTIVITY LEVEL WILL
QUICKLY DROP OFF AFT SUNSET AND W/IN A COUPLE HRS AFTERWARD.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP ONLY INTO THE U60S/L70S AGAIN SINCE
DEWPOINTS WON`T BUDGE - SETTING UP FOR ANOTHER WAVE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
ON FRI AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MOST SHORT/MED RANGE MODELS...INCLUDING THE TAIL END OF SOME LOCAL
WRF MEMBERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A FRI AFTN AND INTO LATE EVE
HRS HEIGHTENED LEVEL OF SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. POPS ARE HIGHER THAN THE GARDEN-VARIETY ISOLATED AFTN REGIME.
THIS COULD MEAN THAT A MORE STRATIFORM/DISSIPATED REGION OF EARLIER
CONVECTION WILL DROP A REGIONAL-SCALE BATCH OF LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN
OVER THE AREA...ESPEC ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA AS MODELS
SUGGEST.

INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI COULD ALSO
INHIBIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND LIMIT IT TO AREAS FURTHER S AND E
WHERE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE M80S. MODEL ADJUSTED VALUES
ARE GIVING L80S FOR HIGHS...ACCOUNTING FOR THE CLOUD COVER
INCREASE...A LIGHT NLY WIND THAT IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE ELY OVER
TIME AND CERTAINLY INTO THE LATE NIGHT HRS - WHICH IS A MORE STABLE
FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
H5 PTTN WL BE EVEN MORE AMPLIFIED IN THE XTNDD PD...W/ RDGG IN THE
CENTER OF THE CONUS AND TROFFING ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. THAT WL
PERMIT SFC HIPRES OVER THE CNDN MARITIMES AND DOWNEAST MAINE TO BLD
DOWN THE COAST. THEREFORE...AM BCMG INCRSGLY CONFIDENT THAT THE WET
PTTN OF THIS WK WL BREAK.

SAT WL BE THE TRANSITION DAY. WL STILL HV ELY SFC LOW AND MODEST
INSTBY. MEANWHILE...THE JET STREAM WL STILL BE OVHD...PROVING A ZONE
OF SHEAR. WITH A MARITIME AMS IN THE LLVL AND LIFT W/IN THE
COLUMN...NEED TO PAINT A GLOOMY PICTURE. WL BE HOLDING POPS AT
CHC...AND EMPHASIZING POINTS E OF THE BLURDG /UPSLP FLOW/. AM NOT
GOING AS LOW ON MAXT AS PSBL. SINCE AM NOT GOING FOR A WASHOUT...WL
BE HOLDING OUT SOME HOPE THAT THERE WL BE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR TEMPS
TO RISE FM DEWPTS. THOSE DEWPTS SHUD BE UPR 60S TO NEAR 70F...SO
ITLL BE A MUGGY DAY EVEN W/O SUNSHINE.

WL BE PUSHING PCPN BACK INTO THE MTNS SAT NGT-SUN AS RDGG BLDS.
STILL HV PROLONGED ELY FLOW...SO SUN WL BE THE DAY WHEN AIR TEMPS WL
BE STRUGGLING TO RISE ABV WATER TEMPS. THERE MAY BE ENUF AIR MVMT SO
THAT FOG WONT BE AN ISSUE SAT NGT. IF IT TURNS OUT THAT FLOW DCPLS
INSTEAD...IT WL BE A WHOLE DIFFERENT STORY.

SFC HIPRES WL RUN THE SHOW FOR THE REST OF THE XTNDD. AM MUCH MORE
GENEROUS W/ SUNSHINE. MAXT UPR 70S-LWR 80S/MIN-T 50S TO LWR 60S
STILL BELOW CLIMO...BUT REACHING TIME OF YR WHEN NRMLS STARTING TO
DROP.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MRB/CHO STILL REPORTING DENSE FOG. THIS SHOULD LIFT AS THE MRNG
PROGRESSES.

SKIES AFTER SUNRISE WILL WAVER IN/OUT OF PARTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY
CLOUDY SINCE WE STILL HAVE A MOIST ATMOS. AN UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY...POTENTIALLY
CARRYING ANOTHER WAVE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS TO THE AREA. CONDS WILL
IMPROVE AGAIN OVERNIGHT...THOUGH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MORE
DENSE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY FRI. MORE SHOWER/TSTMS
EXPECTED ON FRI AFTN/EVE AS WELL.

SAT-SUN...LOCLDS AND VSBYS MAY BE AN ISSUE AS A MARINE AMS SPREADS
INLAND. THINK FLG RESTRICTIONS WL BE MORE PRONOUNCED AND PROLONGED
SAT.

MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...AS
WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF OVERNIGHT. A FEW TSTMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTN/EVE
OVER THE WATERS...CALM AGAIN OVERNIGHT W/ ANOTHER ROUND EXPECTED ON
FRI AFTN/EVE.

ELY FLOW WL DOMINATE THIS WKND AS HIPRES BLDS DOWN THE COAST. THERE
ARE SOME HINTS THAT WNDS MAY TOUCH SCA CRIT AT TIMES...PRIMARILY IN
THE MID BAY. THAT ALL DEPENDS UPON STRENGTH OF THE SFC HIGH AND
RELATIVE LOPRES OFF THE CAROLINAS. NOT TOO CONFIDENT AT A TIGHT
P-GRAD ATTM...AND HV CAPPED WNDS BLO SCA CRIT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LVLS ABOUT 3/4 TO 1 FT ABV ASTRO NORMS. THAT PLACED ANNAPOLIS
AT RISK FOR THE EARLY MORNING TIDE CYCLE. GAUGE READINGS CAME BACK
ARND MIDNGT...AND WE/RE TOPPING OFF JUST ABOVE MINOR CRITERIA.
DEPARTURES ELSEWHERE SHOULD NOT TRIGGER ANY ADVYS...BUT A FEW
CAUTION STAGES SHOULD BE REACHED. ONLY OTHER CONCERN MAY BE
ALEXANDRIA/SWDC...WHERE A 1.1 FT DEPARTURE WOULD TIP THE SCALE.
THINK WE MAY BE ABLE TO SNEAK THAT ONE OUT...BUT ADMITTEDLY ITS
GONNA BE CLOSE.

WE WILL HV SLY FLOW TODAY BECOMING LIGHT TNGT. FORTUNATELY THE 2ND
TIDE CYCLE OF THE DAY IS THE LOWER OF THE TWO ASTRONOMICALLY.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING WE WL HV JUST ENOUGH OPPORTUNITY FOR A LITTLE
WATER TO OOZE OUT OF THE ESTUARY BY THEN. SO...TOMORROW MORNINGS
TIDE WL BE HIGH...BUT AM NOT ANTICIPATING REACHING CRITERIA ATTM.
HOWEVER...WE ARE WORKING ON A MARGIN OF INCHES...WHICH IS PUSHING
CURRENT SKILL LEVEL...SO ITS ADVISABLE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
SITUATION.

FLOW WL BE NLY FRI BEFORE ONSHORE /ELY/ FLOW RETURNS FOR THE WKND.
THUS...IF WATER DOESNT EVACUATE BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THERE COULD
BE MORE NUISANCE ISSUES THIS WKND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ003.
VA...NONE.
WV...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ051>053.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...GMS/HTS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 211248
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
848 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL WAVER ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AS RIPPLES
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE LAST IMPULSE WILL
TRAVERSE THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL PUSH IT SOUTH AS A
COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND WILL DOWN DOWN THE EAST
COAST THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

TRAFFIC CAMS ARND THE AREA SHOW THAT FOG IN THE CENTRAL SHEN VLLY
IS NO LONGER DENSE - ALTHO CHO STILL REPORTING 1/2SM THE TRAFFIC
CAMS IN THAT AREA ARE SUNNY...OR AT LEAST NOT FOGGY. CLOSER TO THE
MASON-DIXON LN THE FOG RMNS. AS A RESULT XNTD THE ADVSRY UNTIL 10
AM IN WSTRN MD/ERN PANHANDLE OF WV.

PREV DISC...
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PINWHEEL A FEW HUNDRED MILES TO OUR
NORTH WILL SLINGSHOT ANOTHER WAVE OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION
LATER TODAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING AND BEING BECOMING PART OF A
LARGER UPPER TROUGH. OUR MOIST AIRMASS WILL UNDERGO VERY LITTLE
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS MODIFIED SUB-TROPICAL
REGIME HAS A CORRIDOR OF DRY AIR ATOP A DENSE AND VERY MOIST
BOUNDARY/SFC LAYER. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CARRY WAVES OF EMBEDDED
VORT MAXES...WHICH ARE ESSENTIALLY AREAS OF LIFT...BUT IN AN
INTERMITTENT AND RANDOM NATURE. LATER TODAY/THIS EVE...A MORE
COMPACT AREA OF UPPER ENERGY WILL BE SHOVED QUICKLY DOWN ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND OVER THE MID-ATLC REGION.

LIKE WED HOWEVER...THE UPPER LOW WILL FORCE THIS WAVE DOWN TOWARD
THE AREA BUT KIND OF STABLE COASTAL BLOCK WILL DISSIPATE THE ENERGY
AS IT APPROACHES THE ATLC COASTLINE. BUT BEFORE THEN...PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR THE INCOMING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO DEVELOP CONVECTION. ONE OF THE KEY FACTORS WILL
BE OUR HIGH TEMPS...AGAIN EXPECTED TO REPEAT IN THE M-U80S. THESE
VALUES COMBINED W/ SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE U60S/L70S WILL BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO AT LEAST BREAK THE WEAK CAP AND FORCE FOR THE
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ATMOS TO DEVELOP SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS. A
HANDFUL OF ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD DOT THE MAP OVER THE COMING
HRS...BUT NOT UNTIL MID-LATE AFTN IS MORE ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED. TIMING/LOCATIONS/INTENSITIES WILL DEPEND ON
EARLY OUTFLOWS AND STORM MOMENTUM FACTORS BUT THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR
WILL CERTAINLY BE ENOUGH /20-30KT BOUNDARY LAYER/ TO SUSTAIN A
LINEAR FEATURE.

AS W/ THE CONVECTION ON WED AFTN/EVE...THE ACTIVITY LEVEL WILL
QUICKLY DROP OFF AFT SUNSET AND W/IN A COUPLE HRS AFTERWARD.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP ONLY INTO THE U60S/L70S AGAIN SINCE
DEWPOINTS WON`T BUDGE - SETTING UP FOR ANOTHER WAVE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
ON FRI AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MOST SHORT/MED RANGE MODELS...INCLUDING THE TAIL END OF SOME LOCAL
WRF MEMBERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A FRI AFTN AND INTO LATE EVE
HRS HEIGHTENED LEVEL OF SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. POPS ARE HIGHER THAN THE GARDEN-VARIETY ISOLATED AFTN REGIME.
THIS COULD MEAN THAT A MORE STRATIFORM/DISSIPATED REGION OF EARLIER
CONVECTION WILL DROP A REGIONAL-SCALE BATCH OF LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN
OVER THE AREA...ESPEC ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA AS MODELS
SUGGEST.

INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI COULD ALSO
INHIBIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND LIMIT IT TO AREAS FURTHER S AND E
WHERE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE M80S. MODEL ADJUSTED VALUES
ARE GIVING L80S FOR HIGHS...ACCOUNTING FOR THE CLOUD COVER
INCREASE...A LIGHT NLY WIND THAT IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE ELY OVER
TIME AND CERTAINLY INTO THE LATE NIGHT HRS - WHICH IS A MORE STABLE
FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
H5 PTTN WL BE EVEN MORE AMPLIFIED IN THE XTNDD PD...W/ RDGG IN THE
CENTER OF THE CONUS AND TROFFING ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. THAT WL
PERMIT SFC HIPRES OVER THE CNDN MARITIMES AND DOWNEAST MAINE TO BLD
DOWN THE COAST. THEREFORE...AM BCMG INCRSGLY CONFIDENT THAT THE WET
PTTN OF THIS WK WL BREAK.

SAT WL BE THE TRANSITION DAY. WL STILL HV ELY SFC LOW AND MODEST
INSTBY. MEANWHILE...THE JET STREAM WL STILL BE OVHD...PROVING A ZONE
OF SHEAR. WITH A MARITIME AMS IN THE LLVL AND LIFT W/IN THE
COLUMN...NEED TO PAINT A GLOOMY PICTURE. WL BE HOLDING POPS AT
CHC...AND EMPHASIZING POINTS E OF THE BLURDG /UPSLP FLOW/. AM NOT
GOING AS LOW ON MAXT AS PSBL. SINCE AM NOT GOING FOR A WASHOUT...WL
BE HOLDING OUT SOME HOPE THAT THERE WL BE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR TEMPS
TO RISE FM DEWPTS. THOSE DEWPTS SHUD BE UPR 60S TO NEAR 70F...SO
ITLL BE A MUGGY DAY EVEN W/O SUNSHINE.

WL BE PUSHING PCPN BACK INTO THE MTNS SAT NGT-SUN AS RDGG BLDS.
STILL HV PROLONGED ELY FLOW...SO SUN WL BE THE DAY WHEN AIR TEMPS WL
BE STRUGGLING TO RISE ABV WATER TEMPS. THERE MAY BE ENUF AIR MVMT SO
THAT FOG WONT BE AN ISSUE SAT NGT. IF IT TURNS OUT THAT FLOW DCPLS
INSTEAD...IT WL BE A WHOLE DIFFERENT STORY.

SFC HIPRES WL RUN THE SHOW FOR THE REST OF THE XTNDD. AM MUCH MORE
GENEROUS W/ SUNSHINE. MAXT UPR 70S-LWR 80S/MIN-T 50S TO LWR 60S
STILL BELOW CLIMO...BUT REACHING TIME OF YR WHEN NRMLS STARTING TO
DROP.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MRB/CHO STILL REPORTING DENSE FOG. THIS SHOULD LIFT AS THE MRNG
PROGRESSES.

SKIES AFTER SUNRISE WILL WAVER IN/OUT OF PARTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY
CLOUDY SINCE WE STILL HAVE A MOIST ATMOS. AN UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY...POTENTIALLY
CARRYING ANOTHER WAVE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS TO THE AREA. CONDS WILL
IMPROVE AGAIN OVERNIGHT...THOUGH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MORE
DENSE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY FRI. MORE SHOWER/TSTMS
EXPECTED ON FRI AFTN/EVE AS WELL.

SAT-SUN...LOCLDS AND VSBYS MAY BE AN ISSUE AS A MARINE AMS SPREADS
INLAND. THINK FLG RESTRICTIONS WL BE MORE PRONOUNCED AND PROLONGED
SAT.

MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...AS
WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF OVERNIGHT. A FEW TSTMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTN/EVE
OVER THE WATERS...CALM AGAIN OVERNIGHT W/ ANOTHER ROUND EXPECTED ON
FRI AFTN/EVE.

ELY FLOW WL DOMINATE THIS WKND AS HIPRES BLDS DOWN THE COAST. THERE
ARE SOME HINTS THAT WNDS MAY TOUCH SCA CRIT AT TIMES...PRIMARILY IN
THE MID BAY. THAT ALL DEPENDS UPON STRENGTH OF THE SFC HIGH AND
RELATIVE LOPRES OFF THE CAROLINAS. NOT TOO CONFIDENT AT A TIGHT
P-GRAD ATTM...AND HV CAPPED WNDS BLO SCA CRIT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LVLS ABOUT 3/4 TO 1 FT ABV ASTRO NORMS. THAT PLACED ANNAPOLIS
AT RISK FOR THE EARLY MORNING TIDE CYCLE. GAUGE READINGS CAME BACK
ARND MIDNGT...AND WE/RE TOPPING OFF JUST ABOVE MINOR CRITERIA.
DEPARTURES ELSEWHERE SHOULD NOT TRIGGER ANY ADVYS...BUT A FEW
CAUTION STAGES SHOULD BE REACHED. ONLY OTHER CONCERN MAY BE
ALEXANDRIA/SWDC...WHERE A 1.1 FT DEPARTURE WOULD TIP THE SCALE.
THINK WE MAY BE ABLE TO SNEAK THAT ONE OUT...BUT ADMITTEDLY ITS
GONNA BE CLOSE.

WE WILL HV SLY FLOW TODAY BECOMING LIGHT TNGT. FORTUNATELY THE 2ND
TIDE CYCLE OF THE DAY IS THE LOWER OF THE TWO ASTRONOMICALLY.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING WE WL HV JUST ENOUGH OPPORTUNITY FOR A LITTLE
WATER TO OOZE OUT OF THE ESTUARY BY THEN. SO...TOMORROW MORNINGS
TIDE WL BE HIGH...BUT AM NOT ANTICIPATING REACHING CRITERIA ATTM.
HOWEVER...WE ARE WORKING ON A MARGIN OF INCHES...WHICH IS PUSHING
CURRENT SKILL LEVEL...SO ITS ADVISABLE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
SITUATION.

FLOW WL BE NLY FRI BEFORE ONSHORE /ELY/ FLOW RETURNS FOR THE WKND.
THUS...IF WATER DOESNT EVACUATE BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THERE COULD
BE MORE NUISANCE ISSUES THIS WKND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ003.
VA...NONE.
WV...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ051>053.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...GMS/HTS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 211248
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
848 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL WAVER ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AS RIPPLES
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE LAST IMPULSE WILL
TRAVERSE THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL PUSH IT SOUTH AS A
COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND WILL DOWN DOWN THE EAST
COAST THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

TRAFFIC CAMS ARND THE AREA SHOW THAT FOG IN THE CENTRAL SHEN VLLY
IS NO LONGER DENSE - ALTHO CHO STILL REPORTING 1/2SM THE TRAFFIC
CAMS IN THAT AREA ARE SUNNY...OR AT LEAST NOT FOGGY. CLOSER TO THE
MASON-DIXON LN THE FOG RMNS. AS A RESULT XNTD THE ADVSRY UNTIL 10
AM IN WSTRN MD/ERN PANHANDLE OF WV.

PREV DISC...
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PINWHEEL A FEW HUNDRED MILES TO OUR
NORTH WILL SLINGSHOT ANOTHER WAVE OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION
LATER TODAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING AND BEING BECOMING PART OF A
LARGER UPPER TROUGH. OUR MOIST AIRMASS WILL UNDERGO VERY LITTLE
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS MODIFIED SUB-TROPICAL
REGIME HAS A CORRIDOR OF DRY AIR ATOP A DENSE AND VERY MOIST
BOUNDARY/SFC LAYER. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CARRY WAVES OF EMBEDDED
VORT MAXES...WHICH ARE ESSENTIALLY AREAS OF LIFT...BUT IN AN
INTERMITTENT AND RANDOM NATURE. LATER TODAY/THIS EVE...A MORE
COMPACT AREA OF UPPER ENERGY WILL BE SHOVED QUICKLY DOWN ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND OVER THE MID-ATLC REGION.

LIKE WED HOWEVER...THE UPPER LOW WILL FORCE THIS WAVE DOWN TOWARD
THE AREA BUT KIND OF STABLE COASTAL BLOCK WILL DISSIPATE THE ENERGY
AS IT APPROACHES THE ATLC COASTLINE. BUT BEFORE THEN...PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR THE INCOMING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO DEVELOP CONVECTION. ONE OF THE KEY FACTORS WILL
BE OUR HIGH TEMPS...AGAIN EXPECTED TO REPEAT IN THE M-U80S. THESE
VALUES COMBINED W/ SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE U60S/L70S WILL BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO AT LEAST BREAK THE WEAK CAP AND FORCE FOR THE
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ATMOS TO DEVELOP SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS. A
HANDFUL OF ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD DOT THE MAP OVER THE COMING
HRS...BUT NOT UNTIL MID-LATE AFTN IS MORE ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED. TIMING/LOCATIONS/INTENSITIES WILL DEPEND ON
EARLY OUTFLOWS AND STORM MOMENTUM FACTORS BUT THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR
WILL CERTAINLY BE ENOUGH /20-30KT BOUNDARY LAYER/ TO SUSTAIN A
LINEAR FEATURE.

AS W/ THE CONVECTION ON WED AFTN/EVE...THE ACTIVITY LEVEL WILL
QUICKLY DROP OFF AFT SUNSET AND W/IN A COUPLE HRS AFTERWARD.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP ONLY INTO THE U60S/L70S AGAIN SINCE
DEWPOINTS WON`T BUDGE - SETTING UP FOR ANOTHER WAVE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
ON FRI AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MOST SHORT/MED RANGE MODELS...INCLUDING THE TAIL END OF SOME LOCAL
WRF MEMBERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A FRI AFTN AND INTO LATE EVE
HRS HEIGHTENED LEVEL OF SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. POPS ARE HIGHER THAN THE GARDEN-VARIETY ISOLATED AFTN REGIME.
THIS COULD MEAN THAT A MORE STRATIFORM/DISSIPATED REGION OF EARLIER
CONVECTION WILL DROP A REGIONAL-SCALE BATCH OF LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN
OVER THE AREA...ESPEC ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA AS MODELS
SUGGEST.

INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI COULD ALSO
INHIBIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND LIMIT IT TO AREAS FURTHER S AND E
WHERE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE M80S. MODEL ADJUSTED VALUES
ARE GIVING L80S FOR HIGHS...ACCOUNTING FOR THE CLOUD COVER
INCREASE...A LIGHT NLY WIND THAT IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE ELY OVER
TIME AND CERTAINLY INTO THE LATE NIGHT HRS - WHICH IS A MORE STABLE
FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
H5 PTTN WL BE EVEN MORE AMPLIFIED IN THE XTNDD PD...W/ RDGG IN THE
CENTER OF THE CONUS AND TROFFING ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. THAT WL
PERMIT SFC HIPRES OVER THE CNDN MARITIMES AND DOWNEAST MAINE TO BLD
DOWN THE COAST. THEREFORE...AM BCMG INCRSGLY CONFIDENT THAT THE WET
PTTN OF THIS WK WL BREAK.

SAT WL BE THE TRANSITION DAY. WL STILL HV ELY SFC LOW AND MODEST
INSTBY. MEANWHILE...THE JET STREAM WL STILL BE OVHD...PROVING A ZONE
OF SHEAR. WITH A MARITIME AMS IN THE LLVL AND LIFT W/IN THE
COLUMN...NEED TO PAINT A GLOOMY PICTURE. WL BE HOLDING POPS AT
CHC...AND EMPHASIZING POINTS E OF THE BLURDG /UPSLP FLOW/. AM NOT
GOING AS LOW ON MAXT AS PSBL. SINCE AM NOT GOING FOR A WASHOUT...WL
BE HOLDING OUT SOME HOPE THAT THERE WL BE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR TEMPS
TO RISE FM DEWPTS. THOSE DEWPTS SHUD BE UPR 60S TO NEAR 70F...SO
ITLL BE A MUGGY DAY EVEN W/O SUNSHINE.

WL BE PUSHING PCPN BACK INTO THE MTNS SAT NGT-SUN AS RDGG BLDS.
STILL HV PROLONGED ELY FLOW...SO SUN WL BE THE DAY WHEN AIR TEMPS WL
BE STRUGGLING TO RISE ABV WATER TEMPS. THERE MAY BE ENUF AIR MVMT SO
THAT FOG WONT BE AN ISSUE SAT NGT. IF IT TURNS OUT THAT FLOW DCPLS
INSTEAD...IT WL BE A WHOLE DIFFERENT STORY.

SFC HIPRES WL RUN THE SHOW FOR THE REST OF THE XTNDD. AM MUCH MORE
GENEROUS W/ SUNSHINE. MAXT UPR 70S-LWR 80S/MIN-T 50S TO LWR 60S
STILL BELOW CLIMO...BUT REACHING TIME OF YR WHEN NRMLS STARTING TO
DROP.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MRB/CHO STILL REPORTING DENSE FOG. THIS SHOULD LIFT AS THE MRNG
PROGRESSES.

SKIES AFTER SUNRISE WILL WAVER IN/OUT OF PARTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY
CLOUDY SINCE WE STILL HAVE A MOIST ATMOS. AN UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY...POTENTIALLY
CARRYING ANOTHER WAVE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS TO THE AREA. CONDS WILL
IMPROVE AGAIN OVERNIGHT...THOUGH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MORE
DENSE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY FRI. MORE SHOWER/TSTMS
EXPECTED ON FRI AFTN/EVE AS WELL.

SAT-SUN...LOCLDS AND VSBYS MAY BE AN ISSUE AS A MARINE AMS SPREADS
INLAND. THINK FLG RESTRICTIONS WL BE MORE PRONOUNCED AND PROLONGED
SAT.

MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...AS
WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF OVERNIGHT. A FEW TSTMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTN/EVE
OVER THE WATERS...CALM AGAIN OVERNIGHT W/ ANOTHER ROUND EXPECTED ON
FRI AFTN/EVE.

ELY FLOW WL DOMINATE THIS WKND AS HIPRES BLDS DOWN THE COAST. THERE
ARE SOME HINTS THAT WNDS MAY TOUCH SCA CRIT AT TIMES...PRIMARILY IN
THE MID BAY. THAT ALL DEPENDS UPON STRENGTH OF THE SFC HIGH AND
RELATIVE LOPRES OFF THE CAROLINAS. NOT TOO CONFIDENT AT A TIGHT
P-GRAD ATTM...AND HV CAPPED WNDS BLO SCA CRIT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LVLS ABOUT 3/4 TO 1 FT ABV ASTRO NORMS. THAT PLACED ANNAPOLIS
AT RISK FOR THE EARLY MORNING TIDE CYCLE. GAUGE READINGS CAME BACK
ARND MIDNGT...AND WE/RE TOPPING OFF JUST ABOVE MINOR CRITERIA.
DEPARTURES ELSEWHERE SHOULD NOT TRIGGER ANY ADVYS...BUT A FEW
CAUTION STAGES SHOULD BE REACHED. ONLY OTHER CONCERN MAY BE
ALEXANDRIA/SWDC...WHERE A 1.1 FT DEPARTURE WOULD TIP THE SCALE.
THINK WE MAY BE ABLE TO SNEAK THAT ONE OUT...BUT ADMITTEDLY ITS
GONNA BE CLOSE.

WE WILL HV SLY FLOW TODAY BECOMING LIGHT TNGT. FORTUNATELY THE 2ND
TIDE CYCLE OF THE DAY IS THE LOWER OF THE TWO ASTRONOMICALLY.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING WE WL HV JUST ENOUGH OPPORTUNITY FOR A LITTLE
WATER TO OOZE OUT OF THE ESTUARY BY THEN. SO...TOMORROW MORNINGS
TIDE WL BE HIGH...BUT AM NOT ANTICIPATING REACHING CRITERIA ATTM.
HOWEVER...WE ARE WORKING ON A MARGIN OF INCHES...WHICH IS PUSHING
CURRENT SKILL LEVEL...SO ITS ADVISABLE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
SITUATION.

FLOW WL BE NLY FRI BEFORE ONSHORE /ELY/ FLOW RETURNS FOR THE WKND.
THUS...IF WATER DOESNT EVACUATE BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THERE COULD
BE MORE NUISANCE ISSUES THIS WKND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ003.
VA...NONE.
WV...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ051>053.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...GMS/HTS







000
FXUS61 KRNK 211153
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
753 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG 595 DM UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA NEAR THE GULF
COAST WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH INCREASING
HEAT AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS EMERGING FROM THE GULF COAST STATES
NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND AS FAR EAST AS THE WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS...INCLUDING THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO
VALLEYS. A STATIONARY FRONT WILL HANG OUT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THIS BUILDING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE...THE STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...NORTHWEST TO NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE CORRIDOR OF FOCUS FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND OUR MAIN WEATHER MAKER AND
FOCUS OF ATTENTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 515 AM EDT THURSDAY...

IN SPITE OF THE BUSY LOOKING SYNOPSIS...NOT MUCH HAPPENING ACROSS
OUR AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE WAS SOME PATCHY FOG AND
STRATUS...BUT A DENSE AREA OF CIRRUS MOVED OVERHEAD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT LIMITING RADIATIVE EFFECTS THUS PREVENTING FOG FROM
BECOMING DENSE. ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD QUICKLY DISPERSE AFTER
SUNRISE.

SHALLOW EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO WEST
NORTHWEST WINDS LATER THIS MORNING AND DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY...WINDS
7-14 MPH...AND GUSTY NEAR THE RIDGE CRESTS. THE DEEPER
FLOW...WELL ALOFT...IS ALSO FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
TRANSPORT DEBRIS CLOUDINESS DOWNSTREAM FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS...CLOUD LAYERS MAINLY ABOVE 10KFT.

WITH WINDS OUT OF THE WEST TODAY...THIS WILL CREATE DOWNSLOPE
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AND SUBSIDENCE. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF LOCAL STORM DEVELOPMENT DUE TO THIS DOWNWARD VERTICAL
MOTION. PRIMARY AREA TO WATCH FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
VCNTY OF STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. STORMS
WHICH DEVELOP VCNTY OF THIS BOUNDARY...ACROSS IL/IN/OH/KY...WILL
MOVE DOWNSTREAM TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS EVENING AND
DURING THE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FROM WEST
VIRGINIA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...THE THREAT TRANSITIONING
DOWNSTREAM INTO VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. HELD OFF ON
ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF PRECIP EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE UNTIL
AFTER 4PM.

STORMS WHICH DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MAY BECOME ORGANIZED
INTO AN MCS...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. IF THIS OCCURS...THIS
COULD TRANSLATE INTO A SEVERE THREAT FOR OUR FCST AREA...THE
PRIMARY THREAT BEING WIND.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GET A BOOST BY THE RELATIVELY STRONG
DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY WIND...READINGS TESTING 90 ROA/LYH/DAN...AND
WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE MTNS. THE GFS MODEL INDICATES QUITE
A BIT OF DEBRIS CLOUDINESS DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF THE STORM
ACTIVITY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...SO THIS MAY INHIBIT FULL SENSIBLE
HEATING. NEVER THE LESS...LOOKING AT A WARM AFTERNOON...
TEMPERATURES RESEMBLING SOMETHING MORE TYPICAL OF AUGUST. WITH
CLOUDS AROUND TONIGHT...READINGS SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH BELOW 70...
WITH A RANGE OF 65 TO 70 FITTING PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...

THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO OFFER AN ACTIVE
WEATHER REGIME. STILL ON FRIDAY...THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND.
A BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE REGION ITSELF WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF PERIODIC SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
RIDING SOUTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL GIVE SOME
PARTS OF OUR REGION LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY.

THE PAST FEW DAYS...GUIDANCE HAS PRESENTED A CORNUCOPIA OF SOLUTIONS
REGARDING TIMING AND TRACK OF THESE IMPULSES OVER OR NEAR OUR
REGION. THE OFFERINGS BY THE 00Z/8PM MODEL RUNS ARE NOT MATCHING
EXACTLY...BUT THEY CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS A CONSENSUS THAT THEIR
EARLIER COUNTERPARTS ALSO HAD BEEN NOTING. FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY EVENING...OR OVERNIGHT...IS A TIME WORTH WATCHING FOR ONE
SUCH MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IMPACTING THE
AREA. THE FOCUS FOR LOCATION IS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE REGION. ANOTHER TIME TO WATCH IS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON
SATURDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL HAVE STARTED TO ENTER THE
REGION AND PROGRESS TO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA BY THE
AFTERNOON. ITS POSITION THERE WILL ADD A GREATER FOCUS TO COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY.

ONCE WE PROGRESS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...THIS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL HAVE CONTINUED ITS PUSH
WESTWARD THROUGH ALL...OR MOST OF THE REGION. MODEL CONSENSUS
PLACES IT ALONG A N-S ORIENTATION FROM ROUGHLY THE GREAT SMOKY
MOUNTAINS NORTH INTO THE COAL COUNTRY OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS
TRANSITION WILL PLACE MOST OF OUR REGION WITHIN A MOIST LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW THAT WILL KEEP THE AREA STABLE...SOCKED IN WITH
CLOUDS...COOLER...WITH EITHER LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE....ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS RULE MAY BE AREAS
SUCH AS TAZEWELL...RICHLANDS...AND MARION VIRGINIA. THIS AREA MAY BE
UNDER...OR CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE FRONT...FOR MILDER TEMPERATURES...A
BIT OF INSTABILITY...WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL TREND COOLER DURING THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY. ON SUNDAY HAVE GONE WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
THE EXCEPTION BEING CLOSER TO RICHLANDS WHERE THE FORECAST WILL
REFLECT NUMBERS AROUND GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 500 MB
HEIGHTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEGIN TO RISE ON TUESDAY WITH THE
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND WEDGED DOWN THE
APPALACHIANS THROUGH TUESDAY. BY THURSDAY A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH WILL
BE IN PLACE.

CHALLENGING TO TIME SHORT WAVES COMING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE.
WPC WAS FAVORING A BLEND OF ENSEMBLE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS KEEPS FORECAST AREA IN A PERSISTENT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME WILL BE
EMPHASIZING SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST CHANCE IN THIS TIME FRAME.

WILL BE WARMING UP CLOSER TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 800 AM EDT THURSDAY...

SHALLOW EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO WEST
NORTHWEST WINDS LATER THIS MORNING. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY...WINDS 6-12 KTS...AND GUSTY NEAR THE
RIDGE CRESTS. THE DEEPER FLOW...WELL ALOFT...IS ALSO FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL TRANSPORT DEBRIS CLOUDINESS DOWNSTREAM FROM
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS...CLOUD
LAYERS MAINLY ABOVE 10KFT.

WITH WINDS OUT OF THE WEST TODAY...THIS WILL CREATE DOWNSLOPE
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AND SUBSIDENCE. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF LOCAL STORM ACTIVITY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...DUE TO THIS
DOWNWARD VERTICAL MOTION. THE SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
TOWARD SUNSET...THUS POTENTIAL FOR STORM ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY VCNTY OF STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. STORMS WHICH DEVELOP VCNTY
OF THIS BOUNDARY...ACROSS IL/IN/OH/KY...WILL MOVE DOWNSTREAM
TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FROM WEST
VIRGINIA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...THE THREAT TRANSITIONING
DOWNSTREAM INTO VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE EVENING.
INTRODUCED TSRA FOR THE WV TERMINALS BETWEEN 18-20Z/2-4PM THEN
INTO THE VA TERMINALS BETWEEN 20-22Z/4-6PM.

EXTENDED AVIATION...

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH PERIODICALLY AND
INTERACTING WITH A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO
THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR...EXPECT STRATUS AND FOG
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR MOST
PRONOUNCED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 9AM EACH DAY. MODELS ARE INDICATED
THAT A DEEPER EASTERLY SORT OF WIND FLOW WILL SETUP FOR THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS SUGGEST THAT LOW CIGS MAY PERSIST EVEN
DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD
MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND DUE TO MOISTURE
BANKING UP AGAINST THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...PM



000
FXUS61 KRNK 211153
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
753 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG 595 DM UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA NEAR THE GULF
COAST WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH INCREASING
HEAT AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS EMERGING FROM THE GULF COAST STATES
NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND AS FAR EAST AS THE WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS...INCLUDING THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO
VALLEYS. A STATIONARY FRONT WILL HANG OUT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THIS BUILDING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE...THE STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...NORTHWEST TO NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE CORRIDOR OF FOCUS FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND OUR MAIN WEATHER MAKER AND
FOCUS OF ATTENTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 515 AM EDT THURSDAY...

IN SPITE OF THE BUSY LOOKING SYNOPSIS...NOT MUCH HAPPENING ACROSS
OUR AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE WAS SOME PATCHY FOG AND
STRATUS...BUT A DENSE AREA OF CIRRUS MOVED OVERHEAD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT LIMITING RADIATIVE EFFECTS THUS PREVENTING FOG FROM
BECOMING DENSE. ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD QUICKLY DISPERSE AFTER
SUNRISE.

SHALLOW EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO WEST
NORTHWEST WINDS LATER THIS MORNING AND DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY...WINDS
7-14 MPH...AND GUSTY NEAR THE RIDGE CRESTS. THE DEEPER
FLOW...WELL ALOFT...IS ALSO FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
TRANSPORT DEBRIS CLOUDINESS DOWNSTREAM FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS...CLOUD LAYERS MAINLY ABOVE 10KFT.

WITH WINDS OUT OF THE WEST TODAY...THIS WILL CREATE DOWNSLOPE
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AND SUBSIDENCE. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF LOCAL STORM DEVELOPMENT DUE TO THIS DOWNWARD VERTICAL
MOTION. PRIMARY AREA TO WATCH FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
VCNTY OF STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. STORMS
WHICH DEVELOP VCNTY OF THIS BOUNDARY...ACROSS IL/IN/OH/KY...WILL
MOVE DOWNSTREAM TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS EVENING AND
DURING THE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FROM WEST
VIRGINIA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...THE THREAT TRANSITIONING
DOWNSTREAM INTO VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. HELD OFF ON
ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF PRECIP EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE UNTIL
AFTER 4PM.

STORMS WHICH DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MAY BECOME ORGANIZED
INTO AN MCS...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. IF THIS OCCURS...THIS
COULD TRANSLATE INTO A SEVERE THREAT FOR OUR FCST AREA...THE
PRIMARY THREAT BEING WIND.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GET A BOOST BY THE RELATIVELY STRONG
DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY WIND...READINGS TESTING 90 ROA/LYH/DAN...AND
WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE MTNS. THE GFS MODEL INDICATES QUITE
A BIT OF DEBRIS CLOUDINESS DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF THE STORM
ACTIVITY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...SO THIS MAY INHIBIT FULL SENSIBLE
HEATING. NEVER THE LESS...LOOKING AT A WARM AFTERNOON...
TEMPERATURES RESEMBLING SOMETHING MORE TYPICAL OF AUGUST. WITH
CLOUDS AROUND TONIGHT...READINGS SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH BELOW 70...
WITH A RANGE OF 65 TO 70 FITTING PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...

THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO OFFER AN ACTIVE
WEATHER REGIME. STILL ON FRIDAY...THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND.
A BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE REGION ITSELF WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF PERIODIC SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
RIDING SOUTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL GIVE SOME
PARTS OF OUR REGION LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY.

THE PAST FEW DAYS...GUIDANCE HAS PRESENTED A CORNUCOPIA OF SOLUTIONS
REGARDING TIMING AND TRACK OF THESE IMPULSES OVER OR NEAR OUR
REGION. THE OFFERINGS BY THE 00Z/8PM MODEL RUNS ARE NOT MATCHING
EXACTLY...BUT THEY CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS A CONSENSUS THAT THEIR
EARLIER COUNTERPARTS ALSO HAD BEEN NOTING. FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY EVENING...OR OVERNIGHT...IS A TIME WORTH WATCHING FOR ONE
SUCH MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IMPACTING THE
AREA. THE FOCUS FOR LOCATION IS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE REGION. ANOTHER TIME TO WATCH IS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON
SATURDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL HAVE STARTED TO ENTER THE
REGION AND PROGRESS TO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA BY THE
AFTERNOON. ITS POSITION THERE WILL ADD A GREATER FOCUS TO COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY.

ONCE WE PROGRESS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...THIS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL HAVE CONTINUED ITS PUSH
WESTWARD THROUGH ALL...OR MOST OF THE REGION. MODEL CONSENSUS
PLACES IT ALONG A N-S ORIENTATION FROM ROUGHLY THE GREAT SMOKY
MOUNTAINS NORTH INTO THE COAL COUNTRY OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS
TRANSITION WILL PLACE MOST OF OUR REGION WITHIN A MOIST LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW THAT WILL KEEP THE AREA STABLE...SOCKED IN WITH
CLOUDS...COOLER...WITH EITHER LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE....ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS RULE MAY BE AREAS
SUCH AS TAZEWELL...RICHLANDS...AND MARION VIRGINIA. THIS AREA MAY BE
UNDER...OR CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE FRONT...FOR MILDER TEMPERATURES...A
BIT OF INSTABILITY...WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL TREND COOLER DURING THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY. ON SUNDAY HAVE GONE WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
THE EXCEPTION BEING CLOSER TO RICHLANDS WHERE THE FORECAST WILL
REFLECT NUMBERS AROUND GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 500 MB
HEIGHTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEGIN TO RISE ON TUESDAY WITH THE
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND WEDGED DOWN THE
APPALACHIANS THROUGH TUESDAY. BY THURSDAY A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH WILL
BE IN PLACE.

CHALLENGING TO TIME SHORT WAVES COMING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE.
WPC WAS FAVORING A BLEND OF ENSEMBLE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS KEEPS FORECAST AREA IN A PERSISTENT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME WILL BE
EMPHASIZING SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST CHANCE IN THIS TIME FRAME.

WILL BE WARMING UP CLOSER TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 800 AM EDT THURSDAY...

SHALLOW EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO WEST
NORTHWEST WINDS LATER THIS MORNING. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY...WINDS 6-12 KTS...AND GUSTY NEAR THE
RIDGE CRESTS. THE DEEPER FLOW...WELL ALOFT...IS ALSO FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL TRANSPORT DEBRIS CLOUDINESS DOWNSTREAM FROM
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS...CLOUD
LAYERS MAINLY ABOVE 10KFT.

WITH WINDS OUT OF THE WEST TODAY...THIS WILL CREATE DOWNSLOPE
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AND SUBSIDENCE. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF LOCAL STORM ACTIVITY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...DUE TO THIS
DOWNWARD VERTICAL MOTION. THE SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
TOWARD SUNSET...THUS POTENTIAL FOR STORM ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY VCNTY OF STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. STORMS WHICH DEVELOP VCNTY
OF THIS BOUNDARY...ACROSS IL/IN/OH/KY...WILL MOVE DOWNSTREAM
TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FROM WEST
VIRGINIA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...THE THREAT TRANSITIONING
DOWNSTREAM INTO VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE EVENING.
INTRODUCED TSRA FOR THE WV TERMINALS BETWEEN 18-20Z/2-4PM THEN
INTO THE VA TERMINALS BETWEEN 20-22Z/4-6PM.

EXTENDED AVIATION...

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH PERIODICALLY AND
INTERACTING WITH A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO
THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR...EXPECT STRATUS AND FOG
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR MOST
PRONOUNCED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 9AM EACH DAY. MODELS ARE INDICATED
THAT A DEEPER EASTERLY SORT OF WIND FLOW WILL SETUP FOR THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS SUGGEST THAT LOW CIGS MAY PERSIST EVEN
DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD
MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND DUE TO MOISTURE
BANKING UP AGAINST THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...PM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 211037
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
637 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND IS SLOW TO
BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WARM FRONT HAS STALLED OVR THE FA...AND WILL RMN NRLY STATIONARY
TDA. LIMITED LO CIGS AND FOG TO START...THEN VRB CLDS TO PCLDY AGN
TDA. MOST OF THE DAY XPCD TO BE PCPN FREE. HEATING...MODEST DEWPTS
(FOR MID AUG) AND CONVERGENCE INVOF STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY (OVR
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF FA) XPCD TO RESULT IN ISOLD TO PSBLY SCT
CONVECTION BY LT THIS AFTN/EVE. WEAKENING S/W FM THE WNW MAY BRING
CONVECTION INTO FAR WNW AREAS LT IN THE DAY AS WELL. HI TEMPS FM
THE M80S AT THE CST...TO THE U80S TO L90S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NW FLO ALOFT RMNS FM TNGT INTO THE WKND...W/ SERIES OF WK IMPULSES
PASSING THROUGH THE RGN. INITIAL IMPULSE (WKNG S/W) MAY KEEP AT
LEAST ISOLD CONVECTION OVR THE FA TNGT. A 2ND WK S/W PUSHES
THROUGH THE FA ON FRI WILL PTNTL FOR ADDITIONAL ISOLD/SCT
CONVECTION BY AFTN/EVE HRS.

A MORE VIGOROUS WAVE DROPS ACROSS THE REGION FRI NGT INTO SAT AS
SFC BNDRY RMNS OVR THE FA. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE BEST CHC OF AND
GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
DURING THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD DUE TO MORE FAVORABLE/STRONGER UPPER
JET SUPPORT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY BEGINS
TO PUSH S TOWARD MDATLC RGN BY LT IN THE DAY. THIS WILL PUSH THE
REMNANT FRONT BACK S OF THE AREA.

HI TEMPS FRI MNLY IN THE M/U80S FRI...THEN FM THE L/M80S ON SAT
(PSBLY U70S ALG THE ATLC BEACHES ON THE ERN SHORE). LO TEMPS MNLY
BE IN THE U60S TO L70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DECREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP AND NEAR SEASONABLE...LATE SUMMER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST.

UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE CNTRL CONUS AND LOW PRESSURE/TROUGHING OFF THE NE COAST. FLOW
REMAINS BLOCKED OVER ERN CANADA AND THE NERN US...RESULTING IN
LITTLE PROGRESSION OF THE CNTRL CONUS RIDGE THRU THE PERIOD. THE
RESULT WILL BE ONGOING NWLY FLOW INTO THE EARLY PERIOD. BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL PUSH WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA SUN AS THE TROUGH
AMPLIFIES ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
SLIGHTLY WETTER SUN AFTER PREVIOUSLY BRINGING IN DRIER AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE STATES WILL RIDGE SWD OVER
THE LOCAL AREA IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH SUBSIDENCE INDICATED IN
MODEL SOUNDINGS. MOISTURE ALSO LOOKS TO BE ON THE DOWNTREND AS MODEL
DERIVED PWATS DROP BELOW 1.5 INCHES. WITH THAT SAID...SUN MAY END UP
BEING DRY...BUT WILL RETAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE PIEDMONT AND
COASTAL AREAS AS DISTURBANCES IN NWLY FLOW AND MODEL UNCERTAINTY
DECREASE CONFIDENCE. BETTER CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS HEADING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE CNTRL CONUS HIGH BEGINS TO NUDGE IN FROM
THE WEST AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WINS OUT. BEST MOISTURE ALSO GETS
SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. TREND CONTINUES INTO TUES AND WEDS AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD AND DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WIN OUT.

ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELD DAYTIME TEMPS GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THRU TUES (-1 STD DEV FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR). RETURN FLOW ON WEDS AND WARMING THICKNESSES PUSH TEMPS BACK
INTO THE MID 80S. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S THRU THE PERIOD
AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOW-MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...A FRNTAL BNDRY IS STALLED OVR THE MID ATLANTIC WITH HI
PRES LOCATED OVR THE NE STATES. THE COMBO OF CALM/LGT WINDS ALONG
THE FRNT AND DECENT LO-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS LED TO LO CIGS AND VSBYS
ERLY THIS MORNG. ANY MVFR/IFR SHOULD END BY LATER THIS
MORNG...WITH LGT WINDS AND SOME LO/MID-LEVEL CLOUDS STICKING
AROUND THRU THE DAY. ISO/SCT SHRAS/TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED MAINLY
LATE IN THE DAY OR DURING THE EVENG HOURS...BUT CHANCE IS NOT HI
ENUF TO WARRANT A MENTION IN THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...SCT MAINLY AFTN AND EVENING TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER INDICATED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A FEW
HOURS OF MVFR/IFR CAN BE EXPECTED AROUND SUNRISE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. A STATIONARY FRNT WILL
REMAIN JUST INLAND TDA OVR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WILL LEAD
TO LGT WINDS OVR ALL WTRS (AOB 10 KT) OUT OF THE S/SE. EXPECT MAINLY
2 FT SEAS (3 FT THIS MORNG OUT 20NM). THE FRNT STALLS OVR THE WTRS
TNGT AS A WAVE OF LO PRES DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRNT...VEERING WINDS
BEHIND THE LO TO AVG OUT OF THE N ON FRI. HI PRES OVR THE NE STATES
RIDGES SWD OVR THE WTRS FRI NGT INTO SAT AS LO PRES PUSHES OFF THE
NC COAST. A STRENGTHENING PRES GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
NELY WINDS OVER THE CSTAL WTRS LATE FRI NGT THRU SAT. HI PRES
REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE NE CST THRU ERLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. ATTM...SPEEDS APPEAR TO REMAIN
SUB-SCA...BUT SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BLD TO 4-5 FT LATE SAT THRU
MON.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 211037
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
637 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND IS SLOW TO
BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WARM FRONT HAS STALLED OVR THE FA...AND WILL RMN NRLY STATIONARY
TDA. LIMITED LO CIGS AND FOG TO START...THEN VRB CLDS TO PCLDY AGN
TDA. MOST OF THE DAY XPCD TO BE PCPN FREE. HEATING...MODEST DEWPTS
(FOR MID AUG) AND CONVERGENCE INVOF STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY (OVR
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF FA) XPCD TO RESULT IN ISOLD TO PSBLY SCT
CONVECTION BY LT THIS AFTN/EVE. WEAKENING S/W FM THE WNW MAY BRING
CONVECTION INTO FAR WNW AREAS LT IN THE DAY AS WELL. HI TEMPS FM
THE M80S AT THE CST...TO THE U80S TO L90S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NW FLO ALOFT RMNS FM TNGT INTO THE WKND...W/ SERIES OF WK IMPULSES
PASSING THROUGH THE RGN. INITIAL IMPULSE (WKNG S/W) MAY KEEP AT
LEAST ISOLD CONVECTION OVR THE FA TNGT. A 2ND WK S/W PUSHES
THROUGH THE FA ON FRI WILL PTNTL FOR ADDITIONAL ISOLD/SCT
CONVECTION BY AFTN/EVE HRS.

A MORE VIGOROUS WAVE DROPS ACROSS THE REGION FRI NGT INTO SAT AS
SFC BNDRY RMNS OVR THE FA. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE BEST CHC OF AND
GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
DURING THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD DUE TO MORE FAVORABLE/STRONGER UPPER
JET SUPPORT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY BEGINS
TO PUSH S TOWARD MDATLC RGN BY LT IN THE DAY. THIS WILL PUSH THE
REMNANT FRONT BACK S OF THE AREA.

HI TEMPS FRI MNLY IN THE M/U80S FRI...THEN FM THE L/M80S ON SAT
(PSBLY U70S ALG THE ATLC BEACHES ON THE ERN SHORE). LO TEMPS MNLY
BE IN THE U60S TO L70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DECREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP AND NEAR SEASONABLE...LATE SUMMER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST.

UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE CNTRL CONUS AND LOW PRESSURE/TROUGHING OFF THE NE COAST. FLOW
REMAINS BLOCKED OVER ERN CANADA AND THE NERN US...RESULTING IN
LITTLE PROGRESSION OF THE CNTRL CONUS RIDGE THRU THE PERIOD. THE
RESULT WILL BE ONGOING NWLY FLOW INTO THE EARLY PERIOD. BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL PUSH WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA SUN AS THE TROUGH
AMPLIFIES ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
SLIGHTLY WETTER SUN AFTER PREVIOUSLY BRINGING IN DRIER AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE STATES WILL RIDGE SWD OVER
THE LOCAL AREA IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH SUBSIDENCE INDICATED IN
MODEL SOUNDINGS. MOISTURE ALSO LOOKS TO BE ON THE DOWNTREND AS MODEL
DERIVED PWATS DROP BELOW 1.5 INCHES. WITH THAT SAID...SUN MAY END UP
BEING DRY...BUT WILL RETAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE PIEDMONT AND
COASTAL AREAS AS DISTURBANCES IN NWLY FLOW AND MODEL UNCERTAINTY
DECREASE CONFIDENCE. BETTER CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS HEADING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE CNTRL CONUS HIGH BEGINS TO NUDGE IN FROM
THE WEST AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WINS OUT. BEST MOISTURE ALSO GETS
SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. TREND CONTINUES INTO TUES AND WEDS AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD AND DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WIN OUT.

ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELD DAYTIME TEMPS GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THRU TUES (-1 STD DEV FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR). RETURN FLOW ON WEDS AND WARMING THICKNESSES PUSH TEMPS BACK
INTO THE MID 80S. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S THRU THE PERIOD
AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOW-MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...A FRNTAL BNDRY IS STALLED OVR THE MID ATLANTIC WITH HI
PRES LOCATED OVR THE NE STATES. THE COMBO OF CALM/LGT WINDS ALONG
THE FRNT AND DECENT LO-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS LED TO LO CIGS AND VSBYS
ERLY THIS MORNG. ANY MVFR/IFR SHOULD END BY LATER THIS
MORNG...WITH LGT WINDS AND SOME LO/MID-LEVEL CLOUDS STICKING
AROUND THRU THE DAY. ISO/SCT SHRAS/TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED MAINLY
LATE IN THE DAY OR DURING THE EVENG HOURS...BUT CHANCE IS NOT HI
ENUF TO WARRANT A MENTION IN THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...SCT MAINLY AFTN AND EVENING TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER INDICATED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A FEW
HOURS OF MVFR/IFR CAN BE EXPECTED AROUND SUNRISE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. A STATIONARY FRNT WILL
REMAIN JUST INLAND TDA OVR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WILL LEAD
TO LGT WINDS OVR ALL WTRS (AOB 10 KT) OUT OF THE S/SE. EXPECT MAINLY
2 FT SEAS (3 FT THIS MORNG OUT 20NM). THE FRNT STALLS OVR THE WTRS
TNGT AS A WAVE OF LO PRES DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRNT...VEERING WINDS
BEHIND THE LO TO AVG OUT OF THE N ON FRI. HI PRES OVR THE NE STATES
RIDGES SWD OVR THE WTRS FRI NGT INTO SAT AS LO PRES PUSHES OFF THE
NC COAST. A STRENGTHENING PRES GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
NELY WINDS OVER THE CSTAL WTRS LATE FRI NGT THRU SAT. HI PRES
REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE NE CST THRU ERLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. ATTM...SPEEDS APPEAR TO REMAIN
SUB-SCA...BUT SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BLD TO 4-5 FT LATE SAT THRU
MON.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS






000
FXUS61 KLWX 210929 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
529 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL WAVER ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AS RIPPLES
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE LAST IMPULSE WILL
TRAVERSE THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL PUSH IT SOUTH AS A
COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND WILL DOWN DOWN THE EAST
COAST THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...AN EARLIER SPEC WX STATEMENT FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAS
BEEN REPLACED W/ A DENSE FOG ADZY FOR MUCH OF THESE SAME AREAS...
ESPEC A TIER OF COUNTIES EITHER SIDE OF THE NRN VA BLUE RIDGE/MD
CATOCTINS. THIS INCLUDES PORTIONS OF THE NRN SHEN VLY AS WELL.
RAIN FROM LAST EVE...CALM WINDS AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
CONTRIBUTING TO AN INCREASINGLY DENSE - THOUGH SHALLOW - LOW
STRATUS LAYER OVER THE MTN VLYS AND PIEDMONT REGIONS.

PREV DISC...
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PINWHEEL A FEW HUNDRED MILES TO OUR
NORTH WILL SLINGSHOT ANOTHER WAVE OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION
LATER TODAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING AND BEING BECOMING PART OF A
LARGER UPPER TROUGH. OUR MOIST AIRMASS WILL UNDERGO VERY LITTLE
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS MODIFIED SUB-TROPICAL
REGIME HAS A CORRIDOR OF DRY AIR ATOP A DENSE AND VERY MOIST
BOUNDARY/SFC LAYER. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CARRY WAVES OF EMBEDDED
VORT MAXES...WHICH ARE ESSENTIALLY AREAS OF LIFT...BUT IN AN
INTERMITTENT AND RANDOM NATURE. LATER TODAY/THIS EVE...A MORE
COMPACT AREA OF UPPER ENERGY WILL BE SHOVED QUICKLY DOWN ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND OVER THE MID-ATLC REGION.

LIKE WED HOWEVER...THE UPPER LOW WILL FORCE THIS WAVE DOWN TOWARD
THE AREA BUT KIND OF STABLE COASTAL BLOCK WILL DISSIPATE THE ENERGY
AS IT APPROACHES THE ATLC COASTLINE. BUT BEFORE THEN...PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR THE INCOMING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO DEVELOP CONVECTION. ONE OF THE KEY FACTORS WILL
BE OUR HIGH TEMPS...AGAIN EXPECTED TO REPEAT IN THE M-U80S. THESE
VALUES COMBINED W/ SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE U60S/L70S WILL BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO AT LEAST BREAK THE WEAK CAP AND FORCE FOR THE
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ATMOS TO DEVELOP SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS. A
HANDFUL OF ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD DOT THE MAP OVER THE COMING
HRS...BUT NOT UNTIL MID-LATE AFTN IS MORE ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED. TIMING/LOCATIONS/INTENSITIES WILL DEPEND ON
EARLY OUTFLOWS AND STORM MOMENTUM FACTORS BUT THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR
WILL CERTAINLY BE ENOUGH /20-30KT BOUNDARY LAYER/ TO SUSTAIN A
LINEAR FEATURE.

AS W/ THE CONVECTION ON WED AFTN/EVE...THE ACTIVITY LEVEL WILL
QUICKLY DROP OFF AFT SUNSET AND W/IN A COUPLE HRS AFTERWARD.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP ONLY INTO THE U60S/L70S AGAIN SINCE
DEWPOINTS WON`T BUDGE - SETTING UP FOR ANOTHER WAVE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
ON FRI AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MOST SHORT/MED RANGE MODELS...INCLUDING THE TAIL END OF SOME LOCAL
WRF MEMBERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A FRI AFTN AND INTO LATE EVE
HRS HEIGHTENED LEVEL OF SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. POPS ARE HIGHER THAN THE GARDEN-VARIETY ISOLATED AFTN REGIME.
THIS COULD MEAN THAT A MORE STRATIFORM/DISSIPATED REGION OF EARLIER
CONVECTION WILL DROP A REGIONAL-SCALE BATCH OF LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN
OVER THE AREA...ESPEC ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA AS MODELS
SUGGEST.

INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI COULD ALSO
INHIBIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND LIMIT IT TO AREAS FURTHER S AND E
WHERE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE M80S. MODEL ADJUSTED VALUES
ARE GIVING L80S FOR HIGHS...ACCOUNTING FOR THE CLOUD COVER
INCREASE...A LIGHT NLY WIND THAT IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE ELY OVER
TIME AND CERTAINLY INTO THE LATE NIGHT HRS - WHICH IS A MORE STABLE
FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
H5 PTTN WL BE EVEN MORE AMPLIFIED IN THE XTNDD PD...W/ RDGG IN THE
CENTER OF THE CONUS AND TROFFING ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. THAT WL
PERMIT SFC HIPRES OVER THE CNDN MARITIMES AND DOWNEAST MAINE TO BLD
DOWN THE COAST. THEREFORE...AM BCMG INCRSGLY CONFIDENT THAT THE WET
PTTN OF THIS WK WL BREAK.

SAT WL BE THE TRANSITION DAY. WL STILL HV ELY SFC LOW AND MODEST
INSTBY. MEANWHILE...THE JET STREAM WL STILL BE OVHD...PROVING A ZONE
OF SHEAR. WITH A MARITIME AMS IN THE LLVL AND LIFT W/IN THE
COLUMN...NEED TO PAINT A GLOOMY PICTURE. WL BE HOLDING POPS AT
CHC...AND EMPHASIZING POINTS E OF THE BLURDG /UPSLP FLOW/. AM NOT
GOING AS LOW ON MAXT AS PSBL. SINCE AM NOT GOING FOR A WASHOUT...WL
BE HOLDING OUT SOME HOPE THAT THERE WL BE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR TEMPS
TO RISE FM DEWPTS. THOSE DEWPTS SHUD BE UPR 60S TO NEAR 70F...SO
ITLL BE A MUGGY DAY EVEN W/O SUNSHINE.

WL BE PUSHING PCPN BACK INTO THE MTNS SAT NGT-SUN AS RDGG BLDS.
STILL HV PROLONGED ELY FLOW...SO SUN WL BE THE DAY WHEN AIR TEMPS WL
BE STRUGGLING TO RISE ABV WATER TEMPS. THERE MAY BE ENUF AIR MVMT SO
THAT FOG WONT BE AN ISSUE SAT NGT. IF IT TURNS OUT THAT FLOW DCPLS
INSTEAD...IT WL BE A WHOLE DIFFERENT STORY.

SFC HIPRES WL RUN THE SHOW FOR THE REST OF THE XTNDD. AM MUCH MORE
GENEROUS W/ SUNSHINE. MAXT UPR 70S-LWR 80S/MIN-T 50S TO LWR 60S
STILL BELOW CLIMO...BUT REACHING TIME OF YR WHEN NRMLS STARTING TO
DROP.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GROUND/VLY FOG HAS SETTLED OVER PARTS OF THE REGION...ESPEC ALONG
THE NRN VA PIEDMONT IN TYPICAL FOG PRONE VLYS AND AREAS THAT
RECEIVED RAIN LAST EVE. THE METRO AREAS WILL ONLY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF HIGH-END VSBY GROUND FOG AND POTENTIALLY A BRIEF MVFR/IFR STRATUS
DECK FROM THE MOIST OVERHEAD ENVRMNT TOWARD SUNRISE. SKIES AFTER
SUNRISE WILL WAVER IN/OUT OF PARTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SINCE WE
STILL HAVE A MOIST ATMOS. AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING
ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY...POTENTIALLY CARRYING ANOTHER WAVE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS TO THE AREA. CONDS WILL IMPROVE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MORE DENSE CLOUD COVER
IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY FRI. MORE SHOWER/TSTMS EXPECTED ON FRI
AFTN/EVE AS WELL.

SAT-SUN...LOCLDS AND VSBYS MAY BE AN ISSUE AS A MARINE AMS SPREADS
INLAND. THINK FLG RESTRICTIONS WL BE MORE PRONOUNCED AND PROLONGED
SAT.

MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...AS
WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF OVERNIGHT. A FEW TSTMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTN/EVE
OVER THE WATERS...CALM AGAIN OVERNIGHT W/ ANOTHER ROUND EXPECTED ON
FRI AFTN/EVE.

ELY FLOW WL DOMINATE THIS WKND AS HIPRES BLDS DOWN THE COAST. THERE
ARE SOME HINTS THAT WNDS MAY TOUCH SCA CRIT AT TIMES...PRIMARILY IN
THE MID BAY. THAT ALL DEPENDS UPON STRENGTH OF THE SFC HIGH AND
RELATIVE LOPRES OFF THE CAROLINAS. NOT TOO CONFIDENT AT A TIGHT
P-GRAD ATTM...AND HV CAPPED WNDS BLO SCA CRIT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LVLS ABOUT 3/4 TO 1 FT ABV ASTRO NORMS. THAT PLACED ANNAPOLIS
AT RISK FOR THE EARLY MORNING TIDE CYCLE. GAUGE READINGS CAME BACK
ARND MIDNGT...AND WE/RE TOPPING OFF JUST ABOVE MINOR CRITERIA.
DEPARTURES ELSEWHERE SHOULD NOT TRIGGER ANY ADVYS...BUT A FEW
CAUTION STAGES SHOULD BE REACHED. ONLY OTHER CONCERN MAY BE
ALEXANDRIA/SWDC...WHERE A 1.1 FT DEPARTURE WOULD TIP THE SCALE.
THINK WE MAY BE ABLE TO SNEAK THAT ONE OUT...BUT ADMITTEDLY ITS
GONNA BE CLOSE.

WE WILL HV SLY FLOW TODAY BECOMING LIGHT TNGT. FORTUNATELY THE 2ND
TIDE CYCLE OF THE DAY IS THE LOWER OF THE TWO ASTRONOMICALLY.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING WE WL HV JUST ENOUGH OPPORTUNITY FOR A LITTLE
WATER TO OOZE OUT OF THE ESTUARY BY THEN. SO...TOMORROW MORNINGS
TIDE WL BE HIGH...BUT AM NOT ANTICIPATING REACHING CRITERIA ATTM.
HOWEVER...WE ARE WORKING ON A MARGIN OF INCHES...WHICH IS PUSHING
CURRENT SKILL LEVEL...SO ITS ADVISABLE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
SITUATION.

FLOW WL BE NLY FRI BEFORE ONSHORE /ELY/ FLOW RETURNS FOR THE WKND.
THUS...IF WATER DOESNT EVACUATE BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THERE COULD
BE MORE NUISANCE ISSUES THIS WKND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ003-004.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ025>031-
     036>040-042-050-051-501-502.
WV...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ051>053.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...GMS
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...GMS/HTS
MARINE...GMS/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS









000
FXUS61 KLWX 210929 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
529 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL WAVER ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AS RIPPLES
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE LAST IMPULSE WILL
TRAVERSE THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL PUSH IT SOUTH AS A
COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND WILL DOWN DOWN THE EAST
COAST THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...AN EARLIER SPEC WX STATEMENT FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAS
BEEN REPLACED W/ A DENSE FOG ADZY FOR MUCH OF THESE SAME AREAS...
ESPEC A TIER OF COUNTIES EITHER SIDE OF THE NRN VA BLUE RIDGE/MD
CATOCTINS. THIS INCLUDES PORTIONS OF THE NRN SHEN VLY AS WELL.
RAIN FROM LAST EVE...CALM WINDS AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
CONTRIBUTING TO AN INCREASINGLY DENSE - THOUGH SHALLOW - LOW
STRATUS LAYER OVER THE MTN VLYS AND PIEDMONT REGIONS.

PREV DISC...
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PINWHEEL A FEW HUNDRED MILES TO OUR
NORTH WILL SLINGSHOT ANOTHER WAVE OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION
LATER TODAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING AND BEING BECOMING PART OF A
LARGER UPPER TROUGH. OUR MOIST AIRMASS WILL UNDERGO VERY LITTLE
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS MODIFIED SUB-TROPICAL
REGIME HAS A CORRIDOR OF DRY AIR ATOP A DENSE AND VERY MOIST
BOUNDARY/SFC LAYER. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CARRY WAVES OF EMBEDDED
VORT MAXES...WHICH ARE ESSENTIALLY AREAS OF LIFT...BUT IN AN
INTERMITTENT AND RANDOM NATURE. LATER TODAY/THIS EVE...A MORE
COMPACT AREA OF UPPER ENERGY WILL BE SHOVED QUICKLY DOWN ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND OVER THE MID-ATLC REGION.

LIKE WED HOWEVER...THE UPPER LOW WILL FORCE THIS WAVE DOWN TOWARD
THE AREA BUT KIND OF STABLE COASTAL BLOCK WILL DISSIPATE THE ENERGY
AS IT APPROACHES THE ATLC COASTLINE. BUT BEFORE THEN...PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR THE INCOMING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO DEVELOP CONVECTION. ONE OF THE KEY FACTORS WILL
BE OUR HIGH TEMPS...AGAIN EXPECTED TO REPEAT IN THE M-U80S. THESE
VALUES COMBINED W/ SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE U60S/L70S WILL BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO AT LEAST BREAK THE WEAK CAP AND FORCE FOR THE
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ATMOS TO DEVELOP SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS. A
HANDFUL OF ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD DOT THE MAP OVER THE COMING
HRS...BUT NOT UNTIL MID-LATE AFTN IS MORE ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED. TIMING/LOCATIONS/INTENSITIES WILL DEPEND ON
EARLY OUTFLOWS AND STORM MOMENTUM FACTORS BUT THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR
WILL CERTAINLY BE ENOUGH /20-30KT BOUNDARY LAYER/ TO SUSTAIN A
LINEAR FEATURE.

AS W/ THE CONVECTION ON WED AFTN/EVE...THE ACTIVITY LEVEL WILL
QUICKLY DROP OFF AFT SUNSET AND W/IN A COUPLE HRS AFTERWARD.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP ONLY INTO THE U60S/L70S AGAIN SINCE
DEWPOINTS WON`T BUDGE - SETTING UP FOR ANOTHER WAVE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
ON FRI AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MOST SHORT/MED RANGE MODELS...INCLUDING THE TAIL END OF SOME LOCAL
WRF MEMBERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A FRI AFTN AND INTO LATE EVE
HRS HEIGHTENED LEVEL OF SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. POPS ARE HIGHER THAN THE GARDEN-VARIETY ISOLATED AFTN REGIME.
THIS COULD MEAN THAT A MORE STRATIFORM/DISSIPATED REGION OF EARLIER
CONVECTION WILL DROP A REGIONAL-SCALE BATCH OF LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN
OVER THE AREA...ESPEC ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA AS MODELS
SUGGEST.

INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI COULD ALSO
INHIBIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND LIMIT IT TO AREAS FURTHER S AND E
WHERE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE M80S. MODEL ADJUSTED VALUES
ARE GIVING L80S FOR HIGHS...ACCOUNTING FOR THE CLOUD COVER
INCREASE...A LIGHT NLY WIND THAT IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE ELY OVER
TIME AND CERTAINLY INTO THE LATE NIGHT HRS - WHICH IS A MORE STABLE
FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
H5 PTTN WL BE EVEN MORE AMPLIFIED IN THE XTNDD PD...W/ RDGG IN THE
CENTER OF THE CONUS AND TROFFING ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. THAT WL
PERMIT SFC HIPRES OVER THE CNDN MARITIMES AND DOWNEAST MAINE TO BLD
DOWN THE COAST. THEREFORE...AM BCMG INCRSGLY CONFIDENT THAT THE WET
PTTN OF THIS WK WL BREAK.

SAT WL BE THE TRANSITION DAY. WL STILL HV ELY SFC LOW AND MODEST
INSTBY. MEANWHILE...THE JET STREAM WL STILL BE OVHD...PROVING A ZONE
OF SHEAR. WITH A MARITIME AMS IN THE LLVL AND LIFT W/IN THE
COLUMN...NEED TO PAINT A GLOOMY PICTURE. WL BE HOLDING POPS AT
CHC...AND EMPHASIZING POINTS E OF THE BLURDG /UPSLP FLOW/. AM NOT
GOING AS LOW ON MAXT AS PSBL. SINCE AM NOT GOING FOR A WASHOUT...WL
BE HOLDING OUT SOME HOPE THAT THERE WL BE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR TEMPS
TO RISE FM DEWPTS. THOSE DEWPTS SHUD BE UPR 60S TO NEAR 70F...SO
ITLL BE A MUGGY DAY EVEN W/O SUNSHINE.

WL BE PUSHING PCPN BACK INTO THE MTNS SAT NGT-SUN AS RDGG BLDS.
STILL HV PROLONGED ELY FLOW...SO SUN WL BE THE DAY WHEN AIR TEMPS WL
BE STRUGGLING TO RISE ABV WATER TEMPS. THERE MAY BE ENUF AIR MVMT SO
THAT FOG WONT BE AN ISSUE SAT NGT. IF IT TURNS OUT THAT FLOW DCPLS
INSTEAD...IT WL BE A WHOLE DIFFERENT STORY.

SFC HIPRES WL RUN THE SHOW FOR THE REST OF THE XTNDD. AM MUCH MORE
GENEROUS W/ SUNSHINE. MAXT UPR 70S-LWR 80S/MIN-T 50S TO LWR 60S
STILL BELOW CLIMO...BUT REACHING TIME OF YR WHEN NRMLS STARTING TO
DROP.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GROUND/VLY FOG HAS SETTLED OVER PARTS OF THE REGION...ESPEC ALONG
THE NRN VA PIEDMONT IN TYPICAL FOG PRONE VLYS AND AREAS THAT
RECEIVED RAIN LAST EVE. THE METRO AREAS WILL ONLY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF HIGH-END VSBY GROUND FOG AND POTENTIALLY A BRIEF MVFR/IFR STRATUS
DECK FROM THE MOIST OVERHEAD ENVRMNT TOWARD SUNRISE. SKIES AFTER
SUNRISE WILL WAVER IN/OUT OF PARTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SINCE WE
STILL HAVE A MOIST ATMOS. AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING
ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY...POTENTIALLY CARRYING ANOTHER WAVE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS TO THE AREA. CONDS WILL IMPROVE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MORE DENSE CLOUD COVER
IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY FRI. MORE SHOWER/TSTMS EXPECTED ON FRI
AFTN/EVE AS WELL.

SAT-SUN...LOCLDS AND VSBYS MAY BE AN ISSUE AS A MARINE AMS SPREADS
INLAND. THINK FLG RESTRICTIONS WL BE MORE PRONOUNCED AND PROLONGED
SAT.

MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...AS
WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF OVERNIGHT. A FEW TSTMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTN/EVE
OVER THE WATERS...CALM AGAIN OVERNIGHT W/ ANOTHER ROUND EXPECTED ON
FRI AFTN/EVE.

ELY FLOW WL DOMINATE THIS WKND AS HIPRES BLDS DOWN THE COAST. THERE
ARE SOME HINTS THAT WNDS MAY TOUCH SCA CRIT AT TIMES...PRIMARILY IN
THE MID BAY. THAT ALL DEPENDS UPON STRENGTH OF THE SFC HIGH AND
RELATIVE LOPRES OFF THE CAROLINAS. NOT TOO CONFIDENT AT A TIGHT
P-GRAD ATTM...AND HV CAPPED WNDS BLO SCA CRIT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LVLS ABOUT 3/4 TO 1 FT ABV ASTRO NORMS. THAT PLACED ANNAPOLIS
AT RISK FOR THE EARLY MORNING TIDE CYCLE. GAUGE READINGS CAME BACK
ARND MIDNGT...AND WE/RE TOPPING OFF JUST ABOVE MINOR CRITERIA.
DEPARTURES ELSEWHERE SHOULD NOT TRIGGER ANY ADVYS...BUT A FEW
CAUTION STAGES SHOULD BE REACHED. ONLY OTHER CONCERN MAY BE
ALEXANDRIA/SWDC...WHERE A 1.1 FT DEPARTURE WOULD TIP THE SCALE.
THINK WE MAY BE ABLE TO SNEAK THAT ONE OUT...BUT ADMITTEDLY ITS
GONNA BE CLOSE.

WE WILL HV SLY FLOW TODAY BECOMING LIGHT TNGT. FORTUNATELY THE 2ND
TIDE CYCLE OF THE DAY IS THE LOWER OF THE TWO ASTRONOMICALLY.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING WE WL HV JUST ENOUGH OPPORTUNITY FOR A LITTLE
WATER TO OOZE OUT OF THE ESTUARY BY THEN. SO...TOMORROW MORNINGS
TIDE WL BE HIGH...BUT AM NOT ANTICIPATING REACHING CRITERIA ATTM.
HOWEVER...WE ARE WORKING ON A MARGIN OF INCHES...WHICH IS PUSHING
CURRENT SKILL LEVEL...SO ITS ADVISABLE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
SITUATION.

FLOW WL BE NLY FRI BEFORE ONSHORE /ELY/ FLOW RETURNS FOR THE WKND.
THUS...IF WATER DOESNT EVACUATE BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THERE COULD
BE MORE NUISANCE ISSUES THIS WKND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ003-004.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ025>031-
     036>040-042-050-051-501-502.
WV...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ051>053.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...GMS
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...GMS/HTS
MARINE...GMS/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS








000
FXUS61 KRNK 210923
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
523 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG 595 DM UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA NEAR THE GULF
COAST WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH INCREASING
HEAT AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS EMERGING FROM THE GULF COAST STATES
NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND AS FAR EAST AS THE WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS...INCLUDING THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO
VALLEYS. A STATIONARY FRONT WILL HANG OUT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THIS BUILDING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE...THE STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...NORTHWEST TO NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE CORRIDOR OF FOCUS FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND OUR MAIN WEATHER MAKER AND
FOCUS OF ATTENTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 515 AM EDT THURSDAY...

IN SPITE OF THE BUSY LOOKING SYNOPSIS...NOT MUCH HAPPENING ACROSS
OUR AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE WAS SOME PATCHY FOG AND
STRATUS...BUT A DENSE AREA OF CIRRUS MOVED OVERHEAD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT LIMITING RADIATIVE EFFECTS THUS PREVENTING FOG FROM
BECOMING DENSE. ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD QUICKLY DISPERSE AFTER
SUNRISE.

SHALLOW EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO WEST
NORTHWEST WINDS LATER THIS MORNING AND DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY...WINDS
7-14 MPH...AND GUSTY NEAR THE RIDGE CRESTS. THE DEEPER
FLOW...WELL ALOFT...IS ALSO FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
TRANSPORT DEBRIS CLOUDINESS DOWNSTREAM FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS...CLOUD LAYERS MAINLY ABOVE 10KFT.

WITH WINDS OUT OF THE WEST TODAY...THIS WILL CREATE DOWNSLOPE
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AND SUBSIDENCE. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF LOCAL STORM DEVELOPMENT DUE TO THIS DOWNWARD VERTICAL
MOTION. PRIMARY AREA TO WATCH FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
VCNTY OF STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. STORMS
WHICH DEVELOP VCNTY OF THIS BOUNDARY...ACROSS IL/IN/OH/KY...WILL
MOVE DOWNSTREAM TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS EVENING AND
DURING THE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FROM WEST
VIRGINIA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...THE THREAT TRANSITIONING
DOWNSTREAM INTO VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. HELD OFF ON
ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF PRECIP EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE UNTIL
AFTER 4PM.

STORMS WHICH DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MAY BECOME ORGANIZED
INTO AN MCS...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. IF THIS OCCURS...THIS
COULD TRANSLATE INTO A SEVERE THREAT FOR OUR FCST AREA...THE
PRIMARY THREAT BEING WIND.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GET A BOOST BY THE RELATIVELY STRONG
DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY WIND...READINGS TESTING 90 ROA/LYH/DAN...AND
WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE MTNS. THE GFS MODEL INDICATES QUITE
A BIT OF DEBRIS CLOUDINESS DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF THE STORM
ACTIVITY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...SO THIS MAY INHIBIT FULL SENSIBLE
HEATING. NEVER THE LESS...LOOKING AT A WARM AFTERNOON...
TEMPERATURES RESEMBLING SOMETHING MORE TYPICAL OF AUGUST. WITH
CLOUDS AROUND TONIGHT...READINGS SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH BELOW 70...
WITH A RANGE OF 65 TO 70 FITTING PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...

THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO OFFER AN ACTIVE
WEATHER REGIME. STILL ON FRIDAY...THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND.
A BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE REGION ITSELF WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF PERIODIC SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
RIDING SOUTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL GIVE SOME
PARTS OF OUR REGION LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY.

THE PAST FEW DAYS...GUIDANCE HAS PRESENTED A CORNUCOPIA OF SOLUTIONS
REGARDING TIMING AND TRACK OF THESE IMPULSES OVER OR NEAR OUR
REGION. THE OFFERINGS BY THE 00Z/8PM MODEL RUNS ARE NOT MATCHING
EXACTLY...BUT THEY CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS A CONSENSUS THAT THEIR
EARLIER COUNTERPARTS ALSO HAD BEEN NOTING. FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY EVENING...OR OVERNIGHT...IS A TIME WORTH WATCHING FOR ONE
SUCH MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IMPACTING THE
AREA. THE FOCUS FOR LOCATION IS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE REGION. ANOTHER TIME TO WATCH IS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON
SATURDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL HAVE STARTED TO ENTER THE
REGION AND PROGRESS TO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA BY THE
AFTERNOON. ITS POSITION THERE WILL ADD A GREATER FOCUS TO COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY.

ONCE WE PROGRESS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...THIS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL HAVE CONTINUED ITS PUSH
WESTWARD THROUGH ALL...OR MOST OF THE REGION. MODEL CONSENSUS
PLACES IT ALONG A N-S ORIENTATION FROM ROUGHLY THE GREAT SMOKY
MOUNTAINS NORTH INTO THE COAL COUNTRY OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS
TRANSITION WILL PLACE MOST OF OUR REGION WITHIN A MOIST LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW THAT WILL KEEP THE AREA STABLE...SOCKED IN WITH
CLOUDS...COOLER...WITH EITHER LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE....ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS RULE MAY BE AREAS
SUCH AS TAZEWELL...RICHLANDS...AND MARION VIRGINIA. THIS AREA MAY BE
UNDER...OR CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE FRONT...FOR MILDER TEMPERATURES...A
BIT OF INSTABILITY...WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL TREND COOLER DURING THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY. ON SUNDAY HAVE GONE WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
THE EXCEPTION BEING CLOSER TO RICHLANDS WHERE THE FORECAST WILL
REFLECT NUMBERS AROUND GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 500 MB
HEIGHTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEGIN TO RISE ON TUESDAY WITH THE
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND WEDGED DOWN THE
APPALACHIANS THROUGH TUESDAY. BY THURSDAY A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH WILL
BE IN PLACE.

CHALLENGING TO TIME SHORT WAVES COMING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE.
WPC WAS FAVORING A BLEND OF ENSEMBLE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS KEEPS FORECAST AREA IN A PERSISTENT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME WILL BE
EMPHASIZING SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST CHANCE IN THIS TIME FRAME.

WILL BE WARMING UP CLOSER TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT THURSDAY...

PATCHY MORNING FOG ANTICIPATED AREAWIDE...MAINLY MVFR...BUT CAN`T
RULE OUT BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR/LIFR FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND DAYBREAK.
ANY FOG AND STRATUS THAT FORMS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE WITH
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AFTER 13Z/9AM.

SHALLOW EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO WEST
NORTHWEST WINDS LATER THIS MORNING. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY...WINDS 6-12 KTS...AND GUSTY NEAR THE
RIDGE CRESTS. THE DEEPER FLOW...WELL ALOFT...IS ALSO FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL TRANSPORT DEBRIS CLOUDINESS DOWNSTREAM FROM
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS...CLOUD
LAYERS MAINLY ABOVE 10KFT.

WITH WINDS OUT OF THE WEST TODAY...THIS WILL CREATE DOWNSLOPE
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AND SUBSIDENCE. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF LOCAL STORM ACTIVITY...DEEP CONVECTION...DUE TO THIS
DOWNWARD VERTICAL MOTION. THE SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
TOWARD SUNSET...THUS POTENTIAL FOR STORM ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE...BUT MAINLY CONFINED LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY VCNTY OF STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. STORMS WHICH DEVELOP VCNTY
OF THIS BOUNDARY...ACROSS IL/IN/OH/KY...WILL MOVE DOWNSTREAM
TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS EVENING AND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FROM WEST
VIRGINIA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...THE THREAT TRANSITIONING
DOWNSTREAM INTO VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. INTRODUCED
VCNTY TSRA FOR ALL THE TERMINALS AFTER 22Z/6PM...THE STORM THREAT
PERSISTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR THE WV
TERMINALS.

EXTENDED AVIATION...

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH PERIODICALLY AND
INTERACTING WITH A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO
THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR...EXPECT STRATUS AND FOG
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR MOST
PRONOUNCED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 9AM EACH DAY. MODELS ARE INDICATED
THAT A DEEPER EASTERLY SORT OF WIND FLOW WILL SETUP FOR THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS SUGGEST THAT LOW CIGS MAY PERSIST EVEN
DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD
MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND DUE TO MOISTURE
BANKING UP AGAINST THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...PM



000
FXUS61 KRNK 210923
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
523 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG 595 DM UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA NEAR THE GULF
COAST WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH INCREASING
HEAT AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS EMERGING FROM THE GULF COAST STATES
NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND AS FAR EAST AS THE WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS...INCLUDING THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO
VALLEYS. A STATIONARY FRONT WILL HANG OUT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THIS BUILDING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE...THE STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...NORTHWEST TO NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE CORRIDOR OF FOCUS FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND OUR MAIN WEATHER MAKER AND
FOCUS OF ATTENTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 515 AM EDT THURSDAY...

IN SPITE OF THE BUSY LOOKING SYNOPSIS...NOT MUCH HAPPENING ACROSS
OUR AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE WAS SOME PATCHY FOG AND
STRATUS...BUT A DENSE AREA OF CIRRUS MOVED OVERHEAD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT LIMITING RADIATIVE EFFECTS THUS PREVENTING FOG FROM
BECOMING DENSE. ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD QUICKLY DISPERSE AFTER
SUNRISE.

SHALLOW EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO WEST
NORTHWEST WINDS LATER THIS MORNING AND DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY...WINDS
7-14 MPH...AND GUSTY NEAR THE RIDGE CRESTS. THE DEEPER
FLOW...WELL ALOFT...IS ALSO FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
TRANSPORT DEBRIS CLOUDINESS DOWNSTREAM FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS...CLOUD LAYERS MAINLY ABOVE 10KFT.

WITH WINDS OUT OF THE WEST TODAY...THIS WILL CREATE DOWNSLOPE
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AND SUBSIDENCE. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF LOCAL STORM DEVELOPMENT DUE TO THIS DOWNWARD VERTICAL
MOTION. PRIMARY AREA TO WATCH FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
VCNTY OF STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. STORMS
WHICH DEVELOP VCNTY OF THIS BOUNDARY...ACROSS IL/IN/OH/KY...WILL
MOVE DOWNSTREAM TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS EVENING AND
DURING THE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FROM WEST
VIRGINIA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...THE THREAT TRANSITIONING
DOWNSTREAM INTO VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. HELD OFF ON
ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF PRECIP EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE UNTIL
AFTER 4PM.

STORMS WHICH DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MAY BECOME ORGANIZED
INTO AN MCS...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. IF THIS OCCURS...THIS
COULD TRANSLATE INTO A SEVERE THREAT FOR OUR FCST AREA...THE
PRIMARY THREAT BEING WIND.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GET A BOOST BY THE RELATIVELY STRONG
DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY WIND...READINGS TESTING 90 ROA/LYH/DAN...AND
WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE MTNS. THE GFS MODEL INDICATES QUITE
A BIT OF DEBRIS CLOUDINESS DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF THE STORM
ACTIVITY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...SO THIS MAY INHIBIT FULL SENSIBLE
HEATING. NEVER THE LESS...LOOKING AT A WARM AFTERNOON...
TEMPERATURES RESEMBLING SOMETHING MORE TYPICAL OF AUGUST. WITH
CLOUDS AROUND TONIGHT...READINGS SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH BELOW 70...
WITH A RANGE OF 65 TO 70 FITTING PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...

THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO OFFER AN ACTIVE
WEATHER REGIME. STILL ON FRIDAY...THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND.
A BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE REGION ITSELF WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF PERIODIC SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
RIDING SOUTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL GIVE SOME
PARTS OF OUR REGION LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY.

THE PAST FEW DAYS...GUIDANCE HAS PRESENTED A CORNUCOPIA OF SOLUTIONS
REGARDING TIMING AND TRACK OF THESE IMPULSES OVER OR NEAR OUR
REGION. THE OFFERINGS BY THE 00Z/8PM MODEL RUNS ARE NOT MATCHING
EXACTLY...BUT THEY CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS A CONSENSUS THAT THEIR
EARLIER COUNTERPARTS ALSO HAD BEEN NOTING. FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY EVENING...OR OVERNIGHT...IS A TIME WORTH WATCHING FOR ONE
SUCH MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IMPACTING THE
AREA. THE FOCUS FOR LOCATION IS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE REGION. ANOTHER TIME TO WATCH IS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON
SATURDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL HAVE STARTED TO ENTER THE
REGION AND PROGRESS TO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA BY THE
AFTERNOON. ITS POSITION THERE WILL ADD A GREATER FOCUS TO COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY.

ONCE WE PROGRESS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...THIS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL HAVE CONTINUED ITS PUSH
WESTWARD THROUGH ALL...OR MOST OF THE REGION. MODEL CONSENSUS
PLACES IT ALONG A N-S ORIENTATION FROM ROUGHLY THE GREAT SMOKY
MOUNTAINS NORTH INTO THE COAL COUNTRY OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS
TRANSITION WILL PLACE MOST OF OUR REGION WITHIN A MOIST LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW THAT WILL KEEP THE AREA STABLE...SOCKED IN WITH
CLOUDS...COOLER...WITH EITHER LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE....ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS RULE MAY BE AREAS
SUCH AS TAZEWELL...RICHLANDS...AND MARION VIRGINIA. THIS AREA MAY BE
UNDER...OR CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE FRONT...FOR MILDER TEMPERATURES...A
BIT OF INSTABILITY...WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL TREND COOLER DURING THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY. ON SUNDAY HAVE GONE WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
THE EXCEPTION BEING CLOSER TO RICHLANDS WHERE THE FORECAST WILL
REFLECT NUMBERS AROUND GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 500 MB
HEIGHTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEGIN TO RISE ON TUESDAY WITH THE
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND WEDGED DOWN THE
APPALACHIANS THROUGH TUESDAY. BY THURSDAY A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH WILL
BE IN PLACE.

CHALLENGING TO TIME SHORT WAVES COMING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE.
WPC WAS FAVORING A BLEND OF ENSEMBLE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS KEEPS FORECAST AREA IN A PERSISTENT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME WILL BE
EMPHASIZING SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST CHANCE IN THIS TIME FRAME.

WILL BE WARMING UP CLOSER TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT THURSDAY...

PATCHY MORNING FOG ANTICIPATED AREAWIDE...MAINLY MVFR...BUT CAN`T
RULE OUT BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR/LIFR FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND DAYBREAK.
ANY FOG AND STRATUS THAT FORMS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE WITH
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AFTER 13Z/9AM.

SHALLOW EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO WEST
NORTHWEST WINDS LATER THIS MORNING. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY...WINDS 6-12 KTS...AND GUSTY NEAR THE
RIDGE CRESTS. THE DEEPER FLOW...WELL ALOFT...IS ALSO FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL TRANSPORT DEBRIS CLOUDINESS DOWNSTREAM FROM
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS...CLOUD
LAYERS MAINLY ABOVE 10KFT.

WITH WINDS OUT OF THE WEST TODAY...THIS WILL CREATE DOWNSLOPE
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AND SUBSIDENCE. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF LOCAL STORM ACTIVITY...DEEP CONVECTION...DUE TO THIS
DOWNWARD VERTICAL MOTION. THE SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
TOWARD SUNSET...THUS POTENTIAL FOR STORM ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE...BUT MAINLY CONFINED LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY VCNTY OF STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. STORMS WHICH DEVELOP VCNTY
OF THIS BOUNDARY...ACROSS IL/IN/OH/KY...WILL MOVE DOWNSTREAM
TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS EVENING AND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FROM WEST
VIRGINIA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...THE THREAT TRANSITIONING
DOWNSTREAM INTO VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. INTRODUCED
VCNTY TSRA FOR ALL THE TERMINALS AFTER 22Z/6PM...THE STORM THREAT
PERSISTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR THE WV
TERMINALS.

EXTENDED AVIATION...

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH PERIODICALLY AND
INTERACTING WITH A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO
THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR...EXPECT STRATUS AND FOG
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR MOST
PRONOUNCED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 9AM EACH DAY. MODELS ARE INDICATED
THAT A DEEPER EASTERLY SORT OF WIND FLOW WILL SETUP FOR THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS SUGGEST THAT LOW CIGS MAY PERSIST EVEN
DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD
MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND DUE TO MOISTURE
BANKING UP AGAINST THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...PM



000
FXUS61 KRNK 210923
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
523 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG 595 DM UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA NEAR THE GULF
COAST WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH INCREASING
HEAT AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS EMERGING FROM THE GULF COAST STATES
NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND AS FAR EAST AS THE WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS...INCLUDING THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO
VALLEYS. A STATIONARY FRONT WILL HANG OUT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THIS BUILDING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE...THE STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...NORTHWEST TO NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE CORRIDOR OF FOCUS FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND OUR MAIN WEATHER MAKER AND
FOCUS OF ATTENTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 515 AM EDT THURSDAY...

IN SPITE OF THE BUSY LOOKING SYNOPSIS...NOT MUCH HAPPENING ACROSS
OUR AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE WAS SOME PATCHY FOG AND
STRATUS...BUT A DENSE AREA OF CIRRUS MOVED OVERHEAD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT LIMITING RADIATIVE EFFECTS THUS PREVENTING FOG FROM
BECOMING DENSE. ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD QUICKLY DISPERSE AFTER
SUNRISE.

SHALLOW EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO WEST
NORTHWEST WINDS LATER THIS MORNING AND DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY...WINDS
7-14 MPH...AND GUSTY NEAR THE RIDGE CRESTS. THE DEEPER
FLOW...WELL ALOFT...IS ALSO FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
TRANSPORT DEBRIS CLOUDINESS DOWNSTREAM FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS...CLOUD LAYERS MAINLY ABOVE 10KFT.

WITH WINDS OUT OF THE WEST TODAY...THIS WILL CREATE DOWNSLOPE
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AND SUBSIDENCE. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF LOCAL STORM DEVELOPMENT DUE TO THIS DOWNWARD VERTICAL
MOTION. PRIMARY AREA TO WATCH FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
VCNTY OF STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. STORMS
WHICH DEVELOP VCNTY OF THIS BOUNDARY...ACROSS IL/IN/OH/KY...WILL
MOVE DOWNSTREAM TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS EVENING AND
DURING THE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FROM WEST
VIRGINIA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...THE THREAT TRANSITIONING
DOWNSTREAM INTO VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. HELD OFF ON
ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF PRECIP EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE UNTIL
AFTER 4PM.

STORMS WHICH DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MAY BECOME ORGANIZED
INTO AN MCS...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. IF THIS OCCURS...THIS
COULD TRANSLATE INTO A SEVERE THREAT FOR OUR FCST AREA...THE
PRIMARY THREAT BEING WIND.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GET A BOOST BY THE RELATIVELY STRONG
DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY WIND...READINGS TESTING 90 ROA/LYH/DAN...AND
WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE MTNS. THE GFS MODEL INDICATES QUITE
A BIT OF DEBRIS CLOUDINESS DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF THE STORM
ACTIVITY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...SO THIS MAY INHIBIT FULL SENSIBLE
HEATING. NEVER THE LESS...LOOKING AT A WARM AFTERNOON...
TEMPERATURES RESEMBLING SOMETHING MORE TYPICAL OF AUGUST. WITH
CLOUDS AROUND TONIGHT...READINGS SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH BELOW 70...
WITH A RANGE OF 65 TO 70 FITTING PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...

THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO OFFER AN ACTIVE
WEATHER REGIME. STILL ON FRIDAY...THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND.
A BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE REGION ITSELF WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF PERIODIC SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
RIDING SOUTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL GIVE SOME
PARTS OF OUR REGION LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY.

THE PAST FEW DAYS...GUIDANCE HAS PRESENTED A CORNUCOPIA OF SOLUTIONS
REGARDING TIMING AND TRACK OF THESE IMPULSES OVER OR NEAR OUR
REGION. THE OFFERINGS BY THE 00Z/8PM MODEL RUNS ARE NOT MATCHING
EXACTLY...BUT THEY CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS A CONSENSUS THAT THEIR
EARLIER COUNTERPARTS ALSO HAD BEEN NOTING. FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY EVENING...OR OVERNIGHT...IS A TIME WORTH WATCHING FOR ONE
SUCH MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IMPACTING THE
AREA. THE FOCUS FOR LOCATION IS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE REGION. ANOTHER TIME TO WATCH IS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON
SATURDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL HAVE STARTED TO ENTER THE
REGION AND PROGRESS TO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA BY THE
AFTERNOON. ITS POSITION THERE WILL ADD A GREATER FOCUS TO COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY.

ONCE WE PROGRESS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...THIS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL HAVE CONTINUED ITS PUSH
WESTWARD THROUGH ALL...OR MOST OF THE REGION. MODEL CONSENSUS
PLACES IT ALONG A N-S ORIENTATION FROM ROUGHLY THE GREAT SMOKY
MOUNTAINS NORTH INTO THE COAL COUNTRY OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS
TRANSITION WILL PLACE MOST OF OUR REGION WITHIN A MOIST LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW THAT WILL KEEP THE AREA STABLE...SOCKED IN WITH
CLOUDS...COOLER...WITH EITHER LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE....ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS RULE MAY BE AREAS
SUCH AS TAZEWELL...RICHLANDS...AND MARION VIRGINIA. THIS AREA MAY BE
UNDER...OR CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE FRONT...FOR MILDER TEMPERATURES...A
BIT OF INSTABILITY...WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL TREND COOLER DURING THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY. ON SUNDAY HAVE GONE WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
THE EXCEPTION BEING CLOSER TO RICHLANDS WHERE THE FORECAST WILL
REFLECT NUMBERS AROUND GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 500 MB
HEIGHTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEGIN TO RISE ON TUESDAY WITH THE
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND WEDGED DOWN THE
APPALACHIANS THROUGH TUESDAY. BY THURSDAY A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH WILL
BE IN PLACE.

CHALLENGING TO TIME SHORT WAVES COMING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE.
WPC WAS FAVORING A BLEND OF ENSEMBLE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS KEEPS FORECAST AREA IN A PERSISTENT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME WILL BE
EMPHASIZING SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST CHANCE IN THIS TIME FRAME.

WILL BE WARMING UP CLOSER TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT THURSDAY...

PATCHY MORNING FOG ANTICIPATED AREAWIDE...MAINLY MVFR...BUT CAN`T
RULE OUT BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR/LIFR FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND DAYBREAK.
ANY FOG AND STRATUS THAT FORMS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE WITH
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AFTER 13Z/9AM.

SHALLOW EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO WEST
NORTHWEST WINDS LATER THIS MORNING. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY...WINDS 6-12 KTS...AND GUSTY NEAR THE
RIDGE CRESTS. THE DEEPER FLOW...WELL ALOFT...IS ALSO FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL TRANSPORT DEBRIS CLOUDINESS DOWNSTREAM FROM
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS...CLOUD
LAYERS MAINLY ABOVE 10KFT.

WITH WINDS OUT OF THE WEST TODAY...THIS WILL CREATE DOWNSLOPE
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AND SUBSIDENCE. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF LOCAL STORM ACTIVITY...DEEP CONVECTION...DUE TO THIS
DOWNWARD VERTICAL MOTION. THE SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
TOWARD SUNSET...THUS POTENTIAL FOR STORM ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE...BUT MAINLY CONFINED LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY VCNTY OF STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. STORMS WHICH DEVELOP VCNTY
OF THIS BOUNDARY...ACROSS IL/IN/OH/KY...WILL MOVE DOWNSTREAM
TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS EVENING AND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FROM WEST
VIRGINIA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...THE THREAT TRANSITIONING
DOWNSTREAM INTO VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. INTRODUCED
VCNTY TSRA FOR ALL THE TERMINALS AFTER 22Z/6PM...THE STORM THREAT
PERSISTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR THE WV
TERMINALS.

EXTENDED AVIATION...

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH PERIODICALLY AND
INTERACTING WITH A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO
THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR...EXPECT STRATUS AND FOG
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR MOST
PRONOUNCED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 9AM EACH DAY. MODELS ARE INDICATED
THAT A DEEPER EASTERLY SORT OF WIND FLOW WILL SETUP FOR THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS SUGGEST THAT LOW CIGS MAY PERSIST EVEN
DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD
MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND DUE TO MOISTURE
BANKING UP AGAINST THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...PM



000
FXUS61 KRNK 210923
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
523 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG 595 DM UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA NEAR THE GULF
COAST WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH INCREASING
HEAT AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS EMERGING FROM THE GULF COAST STATES
NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND AS FAR EAST AS THE WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS...INCLUDING THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO
VALLEYS. A STATIONARY FRONT WILL HANG OUT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THIS BUILDING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE...THE STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...NORTHWEST TO NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE CORRIDOR OF FOCUS FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND OUR MAIN WEATHER MAKER AND
FOCUS OF ATTENTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 515 AM EDT THURSDAY...

IN SPITE OF THE BUSY LOOKING SYNOPSIS...NOT MUCH HAPPENING ACROSS
OUR AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE WAS SOME PATCHY FOG AND
STRATUS...BUT A DENSE AREA OF CIRRUS MOVED OVERHEAD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT LIMITING RADIATIVE EFFECTS THUS PREVENTING FOG FROM
BECOMING DENSE. ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD QUICKLY DISPERSE AFTER
SUNRISE.

SHALLOW EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO WEST
NORTHWEST WINDS LATER THIS MORNING AND DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY...WINDS
7-14 MPH...AND GUSTY NEAR THE RIDGE CRESTS. THE DEEPER
FLOW...WELL ALOFT...IS ALSO FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
TRANSPORT DEBRIS CLOUDINESS DOWNSTREAM FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS...CLOUD LAYERS MAINLY ABOVE 10KFT.

WITH WINDS OUT OF THE WEST TODAY...THIS WILL CREATE DOWNSLOPE
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AND SUBSIDENCE. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF LOCAL STORM DEVELOPMENT DUE TO THIS DOWNWARD VERTICAL
MOTION. PRIMARY AREA TO WATCH FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
VCNTY OF STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. STORMS
WHICH DEVELOP VCNTY OF THIS BOUNDARY...ACROSS IL/IN/OH/KY...WILL
MOVE DOWNSTREAM TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS EVENING AND
DURING THE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FROM WEST
VIRGINIA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...THE THREAT TRANSITIONING
DOWNSTREAM INTO VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. HELD OFF ON
ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF PRECIP EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE UNTIL
AFTER 4PM.

STORMS WHICH DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MAY BECOME ORGANIZED
INTO AN MCS...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. IF THIS OCCURS...THIS
COULD TRANSLATE INTO A SEVERE THREAT FOR OUR FCST AREA...THE
PRIMARY THREAT BEING WIND.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GET A BOOST BY THE RELATIVELY STRONG
DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY WIND...READINGS TESTING 90 ROA/LYH/DAN...AND
WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE MTNS. THE GFS MODEL INDICATES QUITE
A BIT OF DEBRIS CLOUDINESS DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF THE STORM
ACTIVITY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...SO THIS MAY INHIBIT FULL SENSIBLE
HEATING. NEVER THE LESS...LOOKING AT A WARM AFTERNOON...
TEMPERATURES RESEMBLING SOMETHING MORE TYPICAL OF AUGUST. WITH
CLOUDS AROUND TONIGHT...READINGS SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH BELOW 70...
WITH A RANGE OF 65 TO 70 FITTING PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...

THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO OFFER AN ACTIVE
WEATHER REGIME. STILL ON FRIDAY...THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND.
A BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE REGION ITSELF WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF PERIODIC SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
RIDING SOUTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL GIVE SOME
PARTS OF OUR REGION LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY.

THE PAST FEW DAYS...GUIDANCE HAS PRESENTED A CORNUCOPIA OF SOLUTIONS
REGARDING TIMING AND TRACK OF THESE IMPULSES OVER OR NEAR OUR
REGION. THE OFFERINGS BY THE 00Z/8PM MODEL RUNS ARE NOT MATCHING
EXACTLY...BUT THEY CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS A CONSENSUS THAT THEIR
EARLIER COUNTERPARTS ALSO HAD BEEN NOTING. FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY EVENING...OR OVERNIGHT...IS A TIME WORTH WATCHING FOR ONE
SUCH MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IMPACTING THE
AREA. THE FOCUS FOR LOCATION IS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE REGION. ANOTHER TIME TO WATCH IS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON
SATURDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL HAVE STARTED TO ENTER THE
REGION AND PROGRESS TO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA BY THE
AFTERNOON. ITS POSITION THERE WILL ADD A GREATER FOCUS TO COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY.

ONCE WE PROGRESS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...THIS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL HAVE CONTINUED ITS PUSH
WESTWARD THROUGH ALL...OR MOST OF THE REGION. MODEL CONSENSUS
PLACES IT ALONG A N-S ORIENTATION FROM ROUGHLY THE GREAT SMOKY
MOUNTAINS NORTH INTO THE COAL COUNTRY OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS
TRANSITION WILL PLACE MOST OF OUR REGION WITHIN A MOIST LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW THAT WILL KEEP THE AREA STABLE...SOCKED IN WITH
CLOUDS...COOLER...WITH EITHER LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE....ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS RULE MAY BE AREAS
SUCH AS TAZEWELL...RICHLANDS...AND MARION VIRGINIA. THIS AREA MAY BE
UNDER...OR CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE FRONT...FOR MILDER TEMPERATURES...A
BIT OF INSTABILITY...WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL TREND COOLER DURING THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY. ON SUNDAY HAVE GONE WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
THE EXCEPTION BEING CLOSER TO RICHLANDS WHERE THE FORECAST WILL
REFLECT NUMBERS AROUND GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 500 MB
HEIGHTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEGIN TO RISE ON TUESDAY WITH THE
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND WEDGED DOWN THE
APPALACHIANS THROUGH TUESDAY. BY THURSDAY A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH WILL
BE IN PLACE.

CHALLENGING TO TIME SHORT WAVES COMING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE.
WPC WAS FAVORING A BLEND OF ENSEMBLE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS KEEPS FORECAST AREA IN A PERSISTENT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME WILL BE
EMPHASIZING SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST CHANCE IN THIS TIME FRAME.

WILL BE WARMING UP CLOSER TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT THURSDAY...

PATCHY MORNING FOG ANTICIPATED AREAWIDE...MAINLY MVFR...BUT CAN`T
RULE OUT BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR/LIFR FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND DAYBREAK.
ANY FOG AND STRATUS THAT FORMS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE WITH
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AFTER 13Z/9AM.

SHALLOW EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO WEST
NORTHWEST WINDS LATER THIS MORNING. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY...WINDS 6-12 KTS...AND GUSTY NEAR THE
RIDGE CRESTS. THE DEEPER FLOW...WELL ALOFT...IS ALSO FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL TRANSPORT DEBRIS CLOUDINESS DOWNSTREAM FROM
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS...CLOUD
LAYERS MAINLY ABOVE 10KFT.

WITH WINDS OUT OF THE WEST TODAY...THIS WILL CREATE DOWNSLOPE
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AND SUBSIDENCE. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF LOCAL STORM ACTIVITY...DEEP CONVECTION...DUE TO THIS
DOWNWARD VERTICAL MOTION. THE SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
TOWARD SUNSET...THUS POTENTIAL FOR STORM ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE...BUT MAINLY CONFINED LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY VCNTY OF STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. STORMS WHICH DEVELOP VCNTY
OF THIS BOUNDARY...ACROSS IL/IN/OH/KY...WILL MOVE DOWNSTREAM
TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS EVENING AND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FROM WEST
VIRGINIA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...THE THREAT TRANSITIONING
DOWNSTREAM INTO VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. INTRODUCED
VCNTY TSRA FOR ALL THE TERMINALS AFTER 22Z/6PM...THE STORM THREAT
PERSISTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR THE WV
TERMINALS.

EXTENDED AVIATION...

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH PERIODICALLY AND
INTERACTING WITH A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO
THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR...EXPECT STRATUS AND FOG
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR MOST
PRONOUNCED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 9AM EACH DAY. MODELS ARE INDICATED
THAT A DEEPER EASTERLY SORT OF WIND FLOW WILL SETUP FOR THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS SUGGEST THAT LOW CIGS MAY PERSIST EVEN
DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD
MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND DUE TO MOISTURE
BANKING UP AGAINST THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...PM



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210808
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
408 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND IS SLOW TO
BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WARM FRONT HAS STALLED OVR THE FA...AND WILL RMN NRLY STATIONARY
TDA. LIMITED LO CIGS AND FOG TO START...THEN VRB CLDS TO PCLDY AGN
TDA. MOST OF THE DAY XPCD TO BE PCPN FREE. HEATING...MODEST DEWPTS
(FOR MID AUG) AND CONVERGENCE INVOF STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY (OVR
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF FA) XPCD TO RESULT IN ISOLD TO PSBLY SCT
CONVECTION BY LT THIS AFTN/EVE. WEAKENING S/W FM THE WNW MAY BRING
CONVECTION INTO FAR WNW AREAS LT IN THE DAY AS WELL. HI TEMPS FM
THE M80S AT THE CST...TO THE U80S TO L90S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NW FLO ALOFT RMNS FM TNGT INTO THE WKND...W/ SERIES OF WK IMPULSES
PASSING THROUGH THE RGN. INITIAL IMPULSE (WKNG S/W) MAY KEEP AT
LEAST ISOLD CONVECTION OVR THE FA TNGT. A 2ND WK S/W PUSHES
THROUGH THE FA ON FRI WILL PTNTL FOR ADDITIONAL ISOLD/SCT
CONVECTION BY AFTN/EVE HRS.

A MORE VIGOROUS WAVE DROPS ACROSS THE REGION FRI NGT INTO SAT AS
SFC BNDRY RMNS OVR THE FA. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE BEST CHC OF AND
GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
DURING THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD DUE TO MORE FAVORABLE/STRONGER UPPER
JET SUPPORT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY BEGINS
TO PUSH S TOWARD MDATLC RGN BY LT IN THE DAY. THIS WILL PUSH THE
REMNANT FRONT BACK S OF THE AREA.

HI TEMPS FRI MNLY IN THE M/U80S FRI...THEN FM THE L/M80S ON SAT
(PSBLY U70S ALG THE ATLC BEACHES ON THE ERN SHORE). LO TEMPS MNLY
BE IN THE U60S TO L70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DECREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP AND NEAR SEASONABLE...LATE SUMMER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST.

UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE CNTRL CONUS AND LOW PRESSURE/TROUGHING OFF THE NE COAST. FLOW
REMAINS BLOCKED OVER ERN CANADA AND THE NERN US...RESULTING IN
LITTLE PROGRESSION OF THE CNTRL CONUS RIDGE THRU THE PERIOD. THE
RESULT WILL BE ONGOING NWLY FLOW INTO THE EARLY PERIOD. BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL PUSH WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA SUN AS THE TROUGH
AMPLIFIES ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
SLIGHTLY WETTER SUN AFTER PREVIOUSLY BRINGING IN DRIER AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE STATES WILL RIDGE SWD OVER
THE LOCAL AREA IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH SUBSIDENCE INDICATED IN
MODEL SOUNDINGS. MOISTURE ALSO LOOKS TO BE ON THE DOWNTREND AS MODEL
DERIVED PWATS DROP BELOW 1.5 INCHES. WITH THAT SAID...SUN MAY END UP
BEING DRY...BUT WILL RETAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE PIEDMONT AND
COASTAL AREAS AS DISTURBANCES IN NWLY FLOW AND MODEL UNCERTAINTY
DECREASE CONFIDENCE. BETTER CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS HEADING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE CNTRL CONUS HIGH BEGINS TO NUDGE IN FROM
THE WEST AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WINS OUT. BEST MOISTURE ALSO GETS
SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. TREND CONTINUES INTO TUES AND WEDS AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD AND DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WIN OUT.

ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELD DAYTIME TEMPS GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THRU TUES (-1 STD DEV FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR). RETURN FLOW ON WEDS AND WARMING THICKNESSES PUSH TEMPS BACK
INTO THE MID 80S. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S THRU THE PERIOD
AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOW-MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
ACROSS WESTERN VIRGINIA TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THIS FRONT
SHOULD MOVE ONLY SLOWLY TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT AND STALL TOWARD THE
COAST TODAY.

MVFR CONDS EXPECTED AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING DUE TO
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS. WITH VERY LITTLE IFR HAVING
OCCURRED WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WITH A WIDER T/TD SPREAD THAN 24
HOURS AGO...CONFIDENCE IN IFR IS RATHER LOW.

MAINLY VFR SHOULD PREVAIL BEYOND 14Z. SCT TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED
MAINLY LATE IN THE DAY OR DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...SCT MAINLY AFTN AND EVENING TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER INDICATED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A FEW
HOURS OF MVFR/IFR CAN BE EXPECTED AROUND SUNRISE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. A STATIONARY FRNT WILL
REMAIN JUST INLAND TDA OVR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WILL LEAD
TO LGT WINDS OVR ALL WTRS (AOB 10 KT) OUT OF THE S/SE. EXPECT MAINLY
2 FT SEAS (3 FT THIS MORNG OUT 20NM). THE FRNT STALLS OVR THE WTRS
TNGT AS A WAVE OF LO PRES DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRNT...VEERING WINDS
BEHIND THE LO TO AVG OUT OF THE N ON FRI. HI PRES OVR THE NE STATES
RIDGES SWD OVR THE WTRS FRI NGT INTO SAT AS LO PRES PUSHES OFF THE
NC COAST. A STRENGTHENING PRES GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
NELY WINDS OVER THE CSTAL WTRS LATE FRI NGT THRU SAT. HI PRES
REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE NE CST THRU ERLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. ATTM...SPEEDS APPEAR TO REMAIN
SUB-SCA...BUT SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BLD TO 4-5 FT LATE SAT THRU
MON.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS/LSA
MARINE...MAS
















000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210808
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
408 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND IS SLOW TO
BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WARM FRONT HAS STALLED OVR THE FA...AND WILL RMN NRLY STATIONARY
TDA. LIMITED LO CIGS AND FOG TO START...THEN VRB CLDS TO PCLDY AGN
TDA. MOST OF THE DAY XPCD TO BE PCPN FREE. HEATING...MODEST DEWPTS
(FOR MID AUG) AND CONVERGENCE INVOF STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY (OVR
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF FA) XPCD TO RESULT IN ISOLD TO PSBLY SCT
CONVECTION BY LT THIS AFTN/EVE. WEAKENING S/W FM THE WNW MAY BRING
CONVECTION INTO FAR WNW AREAS LT IN THE DAY AS WELL. HI TEMPS FM
THE M80S AT THE CST...TO THE U80S TO L90S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NW FLO ALOFT RMNS FM TNGT INTO THE WKND...W/ SERIES OF WK IMPULSES
PASSING THROUGH THE RGN. INITIAL IMPULSE (WKNG S/W) MAY KEEP AT
LEAST ISOLD CONVECTION OVR THE FA TNGT. A 2ND WK S/W PUSHES
THROUGH THE FA ON FRI WILL PTNTL FOR ADDITIONAL ISOLD/SCT
CONVECTION BY AFTN/EVE HRS.

A MORE VIGOROUS WAVE DROPS ACROSS THE REGION FRI NGT INTO SAT AS
SFC BNDRY RMNS OVR THE FA. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE BEST CHC OF AND
GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
DURING THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD DUE TO MORE FAVORABLE/STRONGER UPPER
JET SUPPORT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY BEGINS
TO PUSH S TOWARD MDATLC RGN BY LT IN THE DAY. THIS WILL PUSH THE
REMNANT FRONT BACK S OF THE AREA.

HI TEMPS FRI MNLY IN THE M/U80S FRI...THEN FM THE L/M80S ON SAT
(PSBLY U70S ALG THE ATLC BEACHES ON THE ERN SHORE). LO TEMPS MNLY
BE IN THE U60S TO L70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DECREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP AND NEAR SEASONABLE...LATE SUMMER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST.

UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE CNTRL CONUS AND LOW PRESSURE/TROUGHING OFF THE NE COAST. FLOW
REMAINS BLOCKED OVER ERN CANADA AND THE NERN US...RESULTING IN
LITTLE PROGRESSION OF THE CNTRL CONUS RIDGE THRU THE PERIOD. THE
RESULT WILL BE ONGOING NWLY FLOW INTO THE EARLY PERIOD. BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL PUSH WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA SUN AS THE TROUGH
AMPLIFIES ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
SLIGHTLY WETTER SUN AFTER PREVIOUSLY BRINGING IN DRIER AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE STATES WILL RIDGE SWD OVER
THE LOCAL AREA IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH SUBSIDENCE INDICATED IN
MODEL SOUNDINGS. MOISTURE ALSO LOOKS TO BE ON THE DOWNTREND AS MODEL
DERIVED PWATS DROP BELOW 1.5 INCHES. WITH THAT SAID...SUN MAY END UP
BEING DRY...BUT WILL RETAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE PIEDMONT AND
COASTAL AREAS AS DISTURBANCES IN NWLY FLOW AND MODEL UNCERTAINTY
DECREASE CONFIDENCE. BETTER CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS HEADING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE CNTRL CONUS HIGH BEGINS TO NUDGE IN FROM
THE WEST AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WINS OUT. BEST MOISTURE ALSO GETS
SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. TREND CONTINUES INTO TUES AND WEDS AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD AND DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WIN OUT.

ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELD DAYTIME TEMPS GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THRU TUES (-1 STD DEV FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR). RETURN FLOW ON WEDS AND WARMING THICKNESSES PUSH TEMPS BACK
INTO THE MID 80S. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S THRU THE PERIOD
AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOW-MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
ACROSS WESTERN VIRGINIA TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THIS FRONT
SHOULD MOVE ONLY SLOWLY TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT AND STALL TOWARD THE
COAST TODAY.

MVFR CONDS EXPECTED AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING DUE TO
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS. WITH VERY LITTLE IFR HAVING
OCCURRED WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WITH A WIDER T/TD SPREAD THAN 24
HOURS AGO...CONFIDENCE IN IFR IS RATHER LOW.

MAINLY VFR SHOULD PREVAIL BEYOND 14Z. SCT TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED
MAINLY LATE IN THE DAY OR DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...SCT MAINLY AFTN AND EVENING TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER INDICATED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A FEW
HOURS OF MVFR/IFR CAN BE EXPECTED AROUND SUNRISE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. A STATIONARY FRNT WILL
REMAIN JUST INLAND TDA OVR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WILL LEAD
TO LGT WINDS OVR ALL WTRS (AOB 10 KT) OUT OF THE S/SE. EXPECT MAINLY
2 FT SEAS (3 FT THIS MORNG OUT 20NM). THE FRNT STALLS OVR THE WTRS
TNGT AS A WAVE OF LO PRES DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRNT...VEERING WINDS
BEHIND THE LO TO AVG OUT OF THE N ON FRI. HI PRES OVR THE NE STATES
RIDGES SWD OVR THE WTRS FRI NGT INTO SAT AS LO PRES PUSHES OFF THE
NC COAST. A STRENGTHENING PRES GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
NELY WINDS OVER THE CSTAL WTRS LATE FRI NGT THRU SAT. HI PRES
REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE NE CST THRU ERLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. ATTM...SPEEDS APPEAR TO REMAIN
SUB-SCA...BUT SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BLD TO 4-5 FT LATE SAT THRU
MON.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS/LSA
MARINE...MAS

















000
FXUS61 KLWX 210802
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
402 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL WAVER ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AS RIPPLES
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE LAST IMPULSE WILL
TRAVERSE THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL PUSH IT SOUTH AS A
COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND WILL DOWN DOWN THE EAST
COAST THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL PINWHEEL A FEW HUNDRED MILES TO OUR NORTH WILL
SLINGSHOT ANOTHER WAVE OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION LATER
TODAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING AND BEING BECOMING PART OF A LARGER UPPER
TROUGH. OUR MOIST AIRMASS WILL UNDERGO VERY LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS MODIFIED SUB-TROPICAL REGIME HAS A
CORRIDOR OF DRY AIR ATOP A DENSE AND VERY MOIST BOUNDARY/SFC LAYER.
NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CARRY WAVES OF EMBEDDED VORT MAXES...WHICH ARE
ESSENTIALLY AREAS OF LIFT...BUT IN AN INTERMITTENT AND RANDOM
NATURE. LATER TODAY/THIS EVE...A MORE COMPACT AREA OF UPPER ENERGY
WILL BE SHOVED QUICKLY DOWN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND OVER THE
MID-ATLC REGION.

LIKE WED HOWEVER...THE UPPER LOW WILL FORCE THIS WAVE DOWN TOWARD
THE AREA BUT KIND OF STABLE COASTAL BLOCK WILL DISSIPATE THE ENERGY
AS IT APPROACHES THE ATLC COASTLINE. BUT BEFORE THEN...PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR THE INCOMING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO DEVELOP CONVECTION. ONE OF THE KEY FACTORS WILL
BE OUR HIGH TEMPS...AGAIN EXPECTED TO REPEAT IN THE M-U80S. THESE
VALUES COMBINED W/ SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE U60S/L70S WILL BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO AT LEAST BREAK THE WEAK CAP AND FORCE FOR THE
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ATMOS TO DEVELOP SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS. A
HANDFUL OF ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD DOT THE MAP OVER THE COMING
HRS...BUT NOT UNTIL MID-LATE AFTN IS MORE ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED. TIMING/LOCATIONS/INTENSITIES WILL DEPEND ON
EARLY OUTFLOWS AND STORM MOMENTUM FACTORS BUT THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR
WILL CERTAINLY BE ENOUGH /20-30KT BOUNDARY LAYER/ TO SUSTAIN A
LINEAR FEATURE.

AS W/ THE CONVECTION ON WED AFTN/EVE...THE ACTIVITY LEVEL WILL
QUICKLY DROP OFF AFT SUNSET AND W/IN A COUPLE HRS AFTERWARD.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP ONLY INTO THE U60S/L70S AGAIN SINCE
DEWPOINTS WON`T BUDGE - SETTING UP FOR ANOTHER WAVE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
ON FRI AFTN.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MOST SHORT/MED RANGE MODELS...INCLUDING THE TAIL END OF SOME LOCAL
WRF MEMBERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A FRI AFTN AND INTO LATE EVE
HRS HEIGHTENED LEVEL OF SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. POPS ARE HIGHER THAN THE GARDEN-VARIETY ISOLATED AFTN REGIME.
THIS COULD MEAN THAT A MORE STRATIFORM/DISSIPATED REGION OF EARLIER
CONVECTION WILL DROP A REGIONAL-SCALE BATCH OF LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN
OVER THE AREA...ESPEC ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA AS MODELS
SUGGEST.

INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI COULD ALSO
INHIBIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND LIMIT IT TO AREAS FURTHER S AND E
WHERE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE M80S. MODEL ADJUSTED VALUES
ARE GIVING L80S FOR HIGHS...ACCOUNTING FOR THE CLOUD COVER
INCREASE...A LIGHT NLY WIND THAT IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE ELY OVER
TIME AND CERTAINLY INTO THE LATE NIGHT HRS - WHICH IS A MORE STABLE
FLOW.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
H5 PTTN WL BE EVEN MORE AMPLIFIED IN THE XTNDD PD...W/ RDGG IN THE
CENTER OF THE CONUS AND TROFFING ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. THAT WL
PERMIT SFC HIPRES OVER THE CNDN MARITIMES AND DOWNEAST MAINE TO BLD
DOWN THE COAST. THEREFORE...AM BCMG INCRSGLY CONFIDENT THAT THE WET
PTTN OF THIS WK WL BREAK.

SAT WL BE THE TRANSITION DAY. WL STILL HV ELY SFC LOW AND MODEST
INSTBY. MEANWHILE...THE JET STREAM WL STILL BE OVHD...PROVING A ZONE
OF SHEAR. WITH A MARITIME AMS IN THE LLVL AND LIFT W/IN THE
COLUMN...NEED TO PAINT A GLOOMY PICTURE. WL BE HOLDING POPS AT
CHC...AND EMPHASIZING POINTS E OF THE BLURDG /UPSLP FLOW/. AM NOT
GOING AS LOW ON MAXT AS PSBL. SINCE AM NOT GOING FOR A WASHOUT...WL
BE HOLDING OUT SOME HOPE THAT THERE WL BE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR TEMPS
TO RISE FM DEWPTS. THOSE DEWPTS SHUD BE UPR 60S TO NEAR 70F...SO
ITLL BE A MUGGY DAY EVEN W/O SUNSHINE.

WL BE PUSHING PCPN BACK INTO THE MTNS SAT NGT-SUN AS RDGG BLDS.
STILL HV PROLONGED ELY FLOW...SO SUN WL BE THE DAY WHEN AIR TEMPS WL
BE STRUGGLING TO RISE ABV WATER TEMPS. THERE MAY BE ENUF AIR MVMT SO
THAT FOG WONT BE AN ISSUE SAT NGT. IF IT TURNS OUT THAT FLOW DCPLS
INSTEAD...IT WL BE A WHOLE DIFFERENT STORY.

SFC HIPRES WL RUN THE SHOW FOR THE REST OF THE XTNDD. AM MUCH MORE
GENEROUS W/ SUNSHINE. MAXT UPR 70S-LWR 80S/MIN-T 50S TO LWR 60S
STILL BELOW CLIMO...BUT REACHING TIME OF YR WHEN NRMLS STARTING TO
DROP.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GROUND/VLY FOG HAS SETTLED OVER PARTS OF THE REGION...ESPEC ALONG
THE NRN VA PIEDMONT IN TYPICAL FOG PRONE VLYS AND AREAS THAT
RECEIVED RAIN LAST EVE. THE METRO AREAS WILL ONLY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF HIGH-END VSBY GROUND FOG AND POTENTIALLY A BRIEF MVFR/IFR STRATUS
DECK FROM THE MOIST OVERHEAD ENVRMNT TOWARD SUNRISE. SKIES AFTER
SUNRISE WILL WAVER IN/OUT OF PARTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SINCE WE
STILL HAVE A MOIST ATMOS. AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING
ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY...POTENTIALLY CARRYING ANOTHER WAVE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS TO THE AREA. CONDS WILL IMPROVE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MORE DENSE CLOUD COVER
IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY FRI. MORE SHOWER/TSTMS EXPECTED ON FRI
AFTN/EVE AS WELL.

SAT-SUN...LOCLDS AND VSBYS MAY BE AN ISSUE AS A MARINE AMS SPREADS
INLAND. THINK FLG RESTRICTIONS WL BE MORE PRONOUNCED AND PROLONGED
SAT.

MON...VFR.
&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...AS
WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF OVERNIGHT. A FEW TSTMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTN/EVE
OVER THE WATERS...CALM AGAIN OVERNIGHT W/ ANOTHER ROUND EXPECTED ON
FRI AFTN/EVE.

ELY FLOW WL DOMINATE THIS WKND AS HIPRES BLDS DOWN THE COAST. THERE
ARE SOME HINTS THAT WNDS MAY TOUCH SCA CRIT AT TIMES...PRIMARILY IN
THE MID BAY. THAT ALL DEPENDS UPON STRENGTH OF THE SFC HIGH AND
RELATIVE LOPRES OFF THE CAROLINAS. NOT TOO CONFIDENT AT A TIGHT
P-GRAD ATTM...AND HV CAPPED WNDS BLO SCA CRIT.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LVLS ABOUT 3/4 TO 1 FT ABV ASTRO NORMS. THAT PLACED ANNAPOLIS
AT RISK FOR THE EARLY MORNING TIDE CYCLE. GAUGE READINGS CAME BACK
ARND MIDNGT...AND WE/RE TOPPING OFF JUST ABOVE MINOR CRITERIA.
DEPARTURES ELSEWHERE SHOULD NOT TRIGGER ANY ADVYS...BUT A FEW
CAUTION STAGES SHOULD BE REACHED. ONLY OTHER CONCERN MAY BE
ALEXANDRIA/SWDC...WHERE A 1.1 FT DEPARTURE WOULD TIP THE SCALE.
THINK WE MAY BE ABLE TO SNEAK THAT ONE OUT...BUT ADMITTEDLY ITS
GONNA BE CLOSE.

WE WILL HV SLY FLOW TODAY BECOMING LIGHT TNGT. FORTUNATELY THE 2ND
TIDE CYCLE OF THE DAY IS THE LOWER OF THE TWO ASTRONOMICALLY.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING WE WL HV JUST ENOUGH OPPORTUNITY FOR A LITTLE
WATER TO OOZE OUT OF THE ESTUARY BY THEN. SO...TOMORROW MORNINGS
TIDE WL BE HIGH...BUT AM NOT ANTICIPATING REACHING CRITERIA ATTM.
HOWEVER...WE ARE WORKING ON A MARGIN OF INCHES...WHICH IS PUSHING
CURRENT SKILL LEVEL...SO ITS ADVISABLE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
SITUATION.

FLOW WL BE NLY FRI BEFORE ONSHORE /ELY/ FLOW RETURNS FOR THE WKND.
THUS...IF WATER DOESNT EVACUATE BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THERE COULD
BE MORE NUISANCE ISSUES THIS WKND.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...GMS
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...GMS/HTS
MARINE...GMS/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 210802
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
402 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL WAVER ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AS RIPPLES
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE LAST IMPULSE WILL
TRAVERSE THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL PUSH IT SOUTH AS A
COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND WILL DOWN DOWN THE EAST
COAST THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL PINWHEEL A FEW HUNDRED MILES TO OUR NORTH WILL
SLINGSHOT ANOTHER WAVE OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION LATER
TODAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING AND BEING BECOMING PART OF A LARGER UPPER
TROUGH. OUR MOIST AIRMASS WILL UNDERGO VERY LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS MODIFIED SUB-TROPICAL REGIME HAS A
CORRIDOR OF DRY AIR ATOP A DENSE AND VERY MOIST BOUNDARY/SFC LAYER.
NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CARRY WAVES OF EMBEDDED VORT MAXES...WHICH ARE
ESSENTIALLY AREAS OF LIFT...BUT IN AN INTERMITTENT AND RANDOM
NATURE. LATER TODAY/THIS EVE...A MORE COMPACT AREA OF UPPER ENERGY
WILL BE SHOVED QUICKLY DOWN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND OVER THE
MID-ATLC REGION.

LIKE WED HOWEVER...THE UPPER LOW WILL FORCE THIS WAVE DOWN TOWARD
THE AREA BUT KIND OF STABLE COASTAL BLOCK WILL DISSIPATE THE ENERGY
AS IT APPROACHES THE ATLC COASTLINE. BUT BEFORE THEN...PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR THE INCOMING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO DEVELOP CONVECTION. ONE OF THE KEY FACTORS WILL
BE OUR HIGH TEMPS...AGAIN EXPECTED TO REPEAT IN THE M-U80S. THESE
VALUES COMBINED W/ SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE U60S/L70S WILL BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO AT LEAST BREAK THE WEAK CAP AND FORCE FOR THE
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ATMOS TO DEVELOP SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS. A
HANDFUL OF ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD DOT THE MAP OVER THE COMING
HRS...BUT NOT UNTIL MID-LATE AFTN IS MORE ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED. TIMING/LOCATIONS/INTENSITIES WILL DEPEND ON
EARLY OUTFLOWS AND STORM MOMENTUM FACTORS BUT THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR
WILL CERTAINLY BE ENOUGH /20-30KT BOUNDARY LAYER/ TO SUSTAIN A
LINEAR FEATURE.

AS W/ THE CONVECTION ON WED AFTN/EVE...THE ACTIVITY LEVEL WILL
QUICKLY DROP OFF AFT SUNSET AND W/IN A COUPLE HRS AFTERWARD.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP ONLY INTO THE U60S/L70S AGAIN SINCE
DEWPOINTS WON`T BUDGE - SETTING UP FOR ANOTHER WAVE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
ON FRI AFTN.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MOST SHORT/MED RANGE MODELS...INCLUDING THE TAIL END OF SOME LOCAL
WRF MEMBERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A FRI AFTN AND INTO LATE EVE
HRS HEIGHTENED LEVEL OF SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. POPS ARE HIGHER THAN THE GARDEN-VARIETY ISOLATED AFTN REGIME.
THIS COULD MEAN THAT A MORE STRATIFORM/DISSIPATED REGION OF EARLIER
CONVECTION WILL DROP A REGIONAL-SCALE BATCH OF LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN
OVER THE AREA...ESPEC ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA AS MODELS
SUGGEST.

INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI COULD ALSO
INHIBIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND LIMIT IT TO AREAS FURTHER S AND E
WHERE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE M80S. MODEL ADJUSTED VALUES
ARE GIVING L80S FOR HIGHS...ACCOUNTING FOR THE CLOUD COVER
INCREASE...A LIGHT NLY WIND THAT IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE ELY OVER
TIME AND CERTAINLY INTO THE LATE NIGHT HRS - WHICH IS A MORE STABLE
FLOW.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
H5 PTTN WL BE EVEN MORE AMPLIFIED IN THE XTNDD PD...W/ RDGG IN THE
CENTER OF THE CONUS AND TROFFING ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. THAT WL
PERMIT SFC HIPRES OVER THE CNDN MARITIMES AND DOWNEAST MAINE TO BLD
DOWN THE COAST. THEREFORE...AM BCMG INCRSGLY CONFIDENT THAT THE WET
PTTN OF THIS WK WL BREAK.

SAT WL BE THE TRANSITION DAY. WL STILL HV ELY SFC LOW AND MODEST
INSTBY. MEANWHILE...THE JET STREAM WL STILL BE OVHD...PROVING A ZONE
OF SHEAR. WITH A MARITIME AMS IN THE LLVL AND LIFT W/IN THE
COLUMN...NEED TO PAINT A GLOOMY PICTURE. WL BE HOLDING POPS AT
CHC...AND EMPHASIZING POINTS E OF THE BLURDG /UPSLP FLOW/. AM NOT
GOING AS LOW ON MAXT AS PSBL. SINCE AM NOT GOING FOR A WASHOUT...WL
BE HOLDING OUT SOME HOPE THAT THERE WL BE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR TEMPS
TO RISE FM DEWPTS. THOSE DEWPTS SHUD BE UPR 60S TO NEAR 70F...SO
ITLL BE A MUGGY DAY EVEN W/O SUNSHINE.

WL BE PUSHING PCPN BACK INTO THE MTNS SAT NGT-SUN AS RDGG BLDS.
STILL HV PROLONGED ELY FLOW...SO SUN WL BE THE DAY WHEN AIR TEMPS WL
BE STRUGGLING TO RISE ABV WATER TEMPS. THERE MAY BE ENUF AIR MVMT SO
THAT FOG WONT BE AN ISSUE SAT NGT. IF IT TURNS OUT THAT FLOW DCPLS
INSTEAD...IT WL BE A WHOLE DIFFERENT STORY.

SFC HIPRES WL RUN THE SHOW FOR THE REST OF THE XTNDD. AM MUCH MORE
GENEROUS W/ SUNSHINE. MAXT UPR 70S-LWR 80S/MIN-T 50S TO LWR 60S
STILL BELOW CLIMO...BUT REACHING TIME OF YR WHEN NRMLS STARTING TO
DROP.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GROUND/VLY FOG HAS SETTLED OVER PARTS OF THE REGION...ESPEC ALONG
THE NRN VA PIEDMONT IN TYPICAL FOG PRONE VLYS AND AREAS THAT
RECEIVED RAIN LAST EVE. THE METRO AREAS WILL ONLY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF HIGH-END VSBY GROUND FOG AND POTENTIALLY A BRIEF MVFR/IFR STRATUS
DECK FROM THE MOIST OVERHEAD ENVRMNT TOWARD SUNRISE. SKIES AFTER
SUNRISE WILL WAVER IN/OUT OF PARTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SINCE WE
STILL HAVE A MOIST ATMOS. AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING
ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY...POTENTIALLY CARRYING ANOTHER WAVE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS TO THE AREA. CONDS WILL IMPROVE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MORE DENSE CLOUD COVER
IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY FRI. MORE SHOWER/TSTMS EXPECTED ON FRI
AFTN/EVE AS WELL.

SAT-SUN...LOCLDS AND VSBYS MAY BE AN ISSUE AS A MARINE AMS SPREADS
INLAND. THINK FLG RESTRICTIONS WL BE MORE PRONOUNCED AND PROLONGED
SAT.

MON...VFR.
&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...AS
WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF OVERNIGHT. A FEW TSTMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTN/EVE
OVER THE WATERS...CALM AGAIN OVERNIGHT W/ ANOTHER ROUND EXPECTED ON
FRI AFTN/EVE.

ELY FLOW WL DOMINATE THIS WKND AS HIPRES BLDS DOWN THE COAST. THERE
ARE SOME HINTS THAT WNDS MAY TOUCH SCA CRIT AT TIMES...PRIMARILY IN
THE MID BAY. THAT ALL DEPENDS UPON STRENGTH OF THE SFC HIGH AND
RELATIVE LOPRES OFF THE CAROLINAS. NOT TOO CONFIDENT AT A TIGHT
P-GRAD ATTM...AND HV CAPPED WNDS BLO SCA CRIT.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LVLS ABOUT 3/4 TO 1 FT ABV ASTRO NORMS. THAT PLACED ANNAPOLIS
AT RISK FOR THE EARLY MORNING TIDE CYCLE. GAUGE READINGS CAME BACK
ARND MIDNGT...AND WE/RE TOPPING OFF JUST ABOVE MINOR CRITERIA.
DEPARTURES ELSEWHERE SHOULD NOT TRIGGER ANY ADVYS...BUT A FEW
CAUTION STAGES SHOULD BE REACHED. ONLY OTHER CONCERN MAY BE
ALEXANDRIA/SWDC...WHERE A 1.1 FT DEPARTURE WOULD TIP THE SCALE.
THINK WE MAY BE ABLE TO SNEAK THAT ONE OUT...BUT ADMITTEDLY ITS
GONNA BE CLOSE.

WE WILL HV SLY FLOW TODAY BECOMING LIGHT TNGT. FORTUNATELY THE 2ND
TIDE CYCLE OF THE DAY IS THE LOWER OF THE TWO ASTRONOMICALLY.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING WE WL HV JUST ENOUGH OPPORTUNITY FOR A LITTLE
WATER TO OOZE OUT OF THE ESTUARY BY THEN. SO...TOMORROW MORNINGS
TIDE WL BE HIGH...BUT AM NOT ANTICIPATING REACHING CRITERIA ATTM.
HOWEVER...WE ARE WORKING ON A MARGIN OF INCHES...WHICH IS PUSHING
CURRENT SKILL LEVEL...SO ITS ADVISABLE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
SITUATION.

FLOW WL BE NLY FRI BEFORE ONSHORE /ELY/ FLOW RETURNS FOR THE WKND.
THUS...IF WATER DOESNT EVACUATE BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THERE COULD
BE MORE NUISANCE ISSUES THIS WKND.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...GMS
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...GMS/HTS
MARINE...GMS/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210643
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
243 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND STALLS NEAR
THE COAST THURSDAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A CLUSTER OF TSTMS DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTRAL VIRGINIA PIEDMONT
NORTH OF OUR CWA EARLY THIS EVENING. A NORTH TO SOUTH AXIS OF
INSTABILITY WAS IN PLACE WITH MORE STABLE AIR TO THE EAST WHERE DEW
POINTS WERE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER. A WARM FRONT JUST TO THE WEST OF
THIS INSTABILITY AXIS HELPED TO DRAW THE TSTMS STRAIGHT SOUTH.

SOME OF THE TSTMS HAVE BEEN SEVERE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS GOOCHLAND AND
POWHATAN COUNTIES. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND DIMINISH
INTO SHOWERS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FARTHER TO THE EAST...ONSHORE E/SE WINDS AND CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN MAINLY DRY. HAVE SLGT CHC SHOWERS IN THESE AREAS TOWARD
MORNING. NO SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY ISSUES ARE INDICATED BUT SOME
PATCHY FOG WILL BE PSBL...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND IN
AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN DURING THE EVENING. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT STALLS IN VICINITY OF THE COAST THURSDAY. OVERALL
FORCING FOR CONVECTION IS WEAK. HOWEVER...A 20% POP WILL BE
MAINTAINED FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. NW MID-LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY...WITH A WEAK IMPULSE PASSING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD BE ACROSS NRN
PORTIONS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE LOW. A MORE VIGOROUS
WAVE DROPS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE BEST CHC OF AND
GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
DURING THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD DUE TO STRONGER UPPER JET SUPPORT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND PUSHES S INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PUSH THE FRONT S OF THE AREA. AT THIS
TIME...POPS RANGE FORM SLIGHT CHC OVER NE PORTIONS TO CHC ACROSS
S/SW PORTIONS.

HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...BEFORE DROPPING BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 80S
(POSSIBLY UPPER 70S FAR NE) SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS SHOULD
MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DECREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP AND NEAR SEASONABLE...LATE SUMMER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST.

UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE CNTRL CONUS AND LOW PRESSURE/TROUGHING OFF THE NE COAST. FLOW
REMAINS BLOCKED OVER ERN CANADA AND THE NERN US...RESULTING IN
LITTLE PROGRESSION OF THE CNTRL CONUS RIDGE THRU THE PERIOD. THE
RESULT WILL BE ONGOING NWLY FLOW INTO THE EARLY PERIOD. BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL PUSH WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA SUN AS THE TROUGH
AMPLIFIES ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
SLIGHTLY WETTER SUN AFTER PREVIOUSLY BRINGING IN DRIER AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE STATES WILL RIDGE SWD OVER
THE LOCAL AREA IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH SUBSIDENCE INDICATED IN
MODEL SOUNDINGS. MOISTURE ALSO LOOKS TO BE ON THE DOWNTREND AS MODEL
DERIVED PWATS DROP BELOW 1.5 INCHES. WITH THAT SAID...SUN MAY END UP
BEING DRY...BUT WILL RETAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE PIEDMONT AND
COASTAL AREAS AS DISTURBANCES IN NWLY FLOW AND MODEL UNCERTAINTY
DECREASE CONFIDENCE. BETTER CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS HEADING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE CNTRL CONUS HIGH BEGINS TO NUDGE IN FROM
THE WEST AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WINS OUT. BEST MOISTURE ALSO GETS
SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. TREND CONTINUES INTO TUES AND WEDS AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD AND DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WIN OUT.

ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELD DAYTIME TEMPS GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THRU TUES (-1 STD DEV FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR). RETURN FLOW ON WEDS AND WARMING THICKNESSES PUSH TEMPS BACK
INTO THE MID 80S. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S THRU THE PERIOD
AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOW-MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
ACROSS WESTERN VIRGINIA TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THIS FRONT
SHOULD MOVE ONLY SLOWLY TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT AND STALL TOWARD THE
COAST TODAY.

MVFR CONDS EXPECTED AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING DUE TO
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS. WITH VERY LITTLE IFR HAVING
OCCURRED WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WITH A WIDER T/TD SPREAD THAN 24
HOURS AGO...CONFIDENCE IN IFR IS RATHER LOW.

MAINLY VFR SHOULD PREVAIL BEYOND 14Z. SCT TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED
MAINLY LATE IN THE DAY OR DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...SCT MAINLY AFTN AND EVENING TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER INDICATED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A FEW
HOURS OF MVFR/IFR CAN BE EXPECTED AROUND SUNRISE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTH
HAS RESULTED IN ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. SPEEDS
AVG AROUND 10 KT WITH SEAS GENERALLY 3 FT AND WAVES 2 FT. WARM FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE WATERS TONIGHT FROM THE WEST AS THE RIDGE AXIS AND
SFC LOW PUSH FARTHER OUT TO SEA. THIS WILL VEER THE FLOW AROUND TO
THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT...AVG 10 KT. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TO 2-3
FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS NEAR THE WATERS THURS
AS ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE WATERS THURS
NIGHT-FRI MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE STATES RIDGES SWD OVER
THE WATERS FRI NIGHT-SAT AS LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NC COAST.
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING NELY WINDS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT THRU SAT. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE NE COAST THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. ATTM...SPEEDS APPEAR TO REMAIN
SUB-SCA...BUT SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 4-5 FT LATE SAT THRU
MON.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LSA
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS/LSA
MARINE...SAM






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210643
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
243 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND STALLS NEAR
THE COAST THURSDAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A CLUSTER OF TSTMS DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTRAL VIRGINIA PIEDMONT
NORTH OF OUR CWA EARLY THIS EVENING. A NORTH TO SOUTH AXIS OF
INSTABILITY WAS IN PLACE WITH MORE STABLE AIR TO THE EAST WHERE DEW
POINTS WERE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER. A WARM FRONT JUST TO THE WEST OF
THIS INSTABILITY AXIS HELPED TO DRAW THE TSTMS STRAIGHT SOUTH.

SOME OF THE TSTMS HAVE BEEN SEVERE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS GOOCHLAND AND
POWHATAN COUNTIES. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND DIMINISH
INTO SHOWERS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FARTHER TO THE EAST...ONSHORE E/SE WINDS AND CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN MAINLY DRY. HAVE SLGT CHC SHOWERS IN THESE AREAS TOWARD
MORNING. NO SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY ISSUES ARE INDICATED BUT SOME
PATCHY FOG WILL BE PSBL...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND IN
AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN DURING THE EVENING. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT STALLS IN VICINITY OF THE COAST THURSDAY. OVERALL
FORCING FOR CONVECTION IS WEAK. HOWEVER...A 20% POP WILL BE
MAINTAINED FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. NW MID-LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY...WITH A WEAK IMPULSE PASSING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD BE ACROSS NRN
PORTIONS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE LOW. A MORE VIGOROUS
WAVE DROPS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE BEST CHC OF AND
GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
DURING THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD DUE TO STRONGER UPPER JET SUPPORT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND PUSHES S INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PUSH THE FRONT S OF THE AREA. AT THIS
TIME...POPS RANGE FORM SLIGHT CHC OVER NE PORTIONS TO CHC ACROSS
S/SW PORTIONS.

HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...BEFORE DROPPING BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 80S
(POSSIBLY UPPER 70S FAR NE) SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS SHOULD
MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DECREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP AND NEAR SEASONABLE...LATE SUMMER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST.

UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE CNTRL CONUS AND LOW PRESSURE/TROUGHING OFF THE NE COAST. FLOW
REMAINS BLOCKED OVER ERN CANADA AND THE NERN US...RESULTING IN
LITTLE PROGRESSION OF THE CNTRL CONUS RIDGE THRU THE PERIOD. THE
RESULT WILL BE ONGOING NWLY FLOW INTO THE EARLY PERIOD. BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL PUSH WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA SUN AS THE TROUGH
AMPLIFIES ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
SLIGHTLY WETTER SUN AFTER PREVIOUSLY BRINGING IN DRIER AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE STATES WILL RIDGE SWD OVER
THE LOCAL AREA IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH SUBSIDENCE INDICATED IN
MODEL SOUNDINGS. MOISTURE ALSO LOOKS TO BE ON THE DOWNTREND AS MODEL
DERIVED PWATS DROP BELOW 1.5 INCHES. WITH THAT SAID...SUN MAY END UP
BEING DRY...BUT WILL RETAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE PIEDMONT AND
COASTAL AREAS AS DISTURBANCES IN NWLY FLOW AND MODEL UNCERTAINTY
DECREASE CONFIDENCE. BETTER CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS HEADING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE CNTRL CONUS HIGH BEGINS TO NUDGE IN FROM
THE WEST AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WINS OUT. BEST MOISTURE ALSO GETS
SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. TREND CONTINUES INTO TUES AND WEDS AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD AND DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WIN OUT.

ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELD DAYTIME TEMPS GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THRU TUES (-1 STD DEV FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR). RETURN FLOW ON WEDS AND WARMING THICKNESSES PUSH TEMPS BACK
INTO THE MID 80S. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S THRU THE PERIOD
AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOW-MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
ACROSS WESTERN VIRGINIA TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THIS FRONT
SHOULD MOVE ONLY SLOWLY TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT AND STALL TOWARD THE
COAST TODAY.

MVFR CONDS EXPECTED AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING DUE TO
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS. WITH VERY LITTLE IFR HAVING
OCCURRED WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WITH A WIDER T/TD SPREAD THAN 24
HOURS AGO...CONFIDENCE IN IFR IS RATHER LOW.

MAINLY VFR SHOULD PREVAIL BEYOND 14Z. SCT TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED
MAINLY LATE IN THE DAY OR DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...SCT MAINLY AFTN AND EVENING TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER INDICATED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A FEW
HOURS OF MVFR/IFR CAN BE EXPECTED AROUND SUNRISE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTH
HAS RESULTED IN ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. SPEEDS
AVG AROUND 10 KT WITH SEAS GENERALLY 3 FT AND WAVES 2 FT. WARM FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE WATERS TONIGHT FROM THE WEST AS THE RIDGE AXIS AND
SFC LOW PUSH FARTHER OUT TO SEA. THIS WILL VEER THE FLOW AROUND TO
THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT...AVG 10 KT. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TO 2-3
FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS NEAR THE WATERS THURS
AS ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE WATERS THURS
NIGHT-FRI MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE STATES RIDGES SWD OVER
THE WATERS FRI NIGHT-SAT AS LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NC COAST.
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING NELY WINDS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT THRU SAT. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE NE COAST THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. ATTM...SPEEDS APPEAR TO REMAIN
SUB-SCA...BUT SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 4-5 FT LATE SAT THRU
MON.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LSA
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS/LSA
MARINE...SAM







000
FXUS61 KRNK 210640
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
240 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACKING EAST AND SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE BOUNDARY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
REGION EACH DAY. THE FRONT SHOULD SHIFT BACK SOUTH OF THE REGION
SATURDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1120 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

MLCAPES OVER 1500 J/KG STILL LINGERING OVER THE PIEDMONT LATE THIS
EVENING KEEPING CONVECTION ONGOING FROM THE NC/VA LINE NORTH INTO
BUCKINGHAM COUNTY. AIRMASS HAS BEEN WORKED OVER ACROSS THE
MTNS...AND DESPITE A STRONGER WAVE DEPICTED BY LATEST RAP ANALYSIS
OVER KY...NOT SEEING MUCH OF ANYTHING EXCEPT ISOLATED/WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWER THREAT THROUGH 3 AM OUT OVER FAR SW VA INTO NW
NC. THINK THE CONVECTION OUT EAST WILL EXIT THE CWA BY 1 AM.

SKIES WILL BE VARIABLY CLOUDY WITH LOTS OF HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS
THE WEST AND SOUTH. CLEARING TAKES PLACE INTO EARLY MORNING OUT
EAST...WITH MORE CLOUDS ARRIVING INTO THE APPALACHIANS AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER ILLINOIS THIS EVENING. MODELS HAVE
SLOWED TIMING DOWN SOME WITH ONSET OF NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS IN THE
MTNS...SO DELAYED CHANCES A COUPLE OF HOURS.

FOG MAY BE MORE OF AN ISSUE OUT EAST IF/WHEN IT CLEARS ESPECIALLY
WHERE IT RAINED. FOR NOW KEPT IN PATCHY FOG...WITH AREAS CLOSER TO
BUCKINGHAM COUNTY. LOW TEMPS REMAIN MUGGY IN THE 60S.




WEAK RESIDUAL FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NE ON THURSDAY AS THE WAVE CHANNEL
ALOFT AROUND THE RIDGE TO THE SW AMPLIFIES A BIT AND STARTS TO SHIFT
NORTH AS WELL. MODELS BRING ANOTHER IMPULSE QUICKLY SE OUT OF THE
UPSTREAM CONVEYER BELT AND DRIVE IT TOWARD THE NW COUNTIES
THURSDAY MORNING SIMILAR TO TODAY...PERHAPS JUST A BIT SLOWER.
HOWEVER LIFT WILL BE ENCOUNTERING DEEP NW FLOW SO UNCERTAIN AS TO
HOW FAR THIS COMPLEX MAY GET BEFORE FADING. THUS RUNNING WITH
INCREASING CHANCE POPS THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY BLUE RIDGE
WEST...WITH HIGHEST ACROSS SE WEST VA. EXPECT EARLY CONVECTION TO
AGAIN FADE CROSSING THE RIDGES AS WE SLIP IN BETWEEN WAVES BEFORE
BETTER INSTABILITY/OUTFLOW HELPS REDEVELOP AT LEAST SCATTERED
AFTERNOON COVERAGE MOUNTAINS...AND ISOLATED OUT EAST WHERE
DOWNSLOPE ALOFT WILL BE STRONGER. THEREFORE TRIMMED BACK POPS TO
MORE CHANCE NATURE GIVEN TRENDS OF LATE AND LACK OF MUCH LIFT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE NEXT WAVE IN OHIO. WARMING ALOFT AND
WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD COMBINE WITH SUNSHINE TO PUSH TEMPS ABOVE 90
SE WITH 80S MOST OTHER SPOTS PENDING EARLY CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST AREA STAYS IN BROAD NORTHWEST SYNOPTIC FLOW. PROBABILITY
OF PRECIPITATION WILL DEPEND ON WHEN SHORT WAVES COME THROUGH.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT CROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
DURING THE LATE NIGHT OR EARLY MORNING...OR UPSTREAM CLUSTERS OF
STORMS THAT SPREAD CLOUDS DOWNSTREAM OVER US WILL DIMINISH THE
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY.

MODELS HAVE AXIS OF BEST LIFT SHIFTING JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS MAY LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. BUT SURFACE BOUNDARY POSSIBLY MOVING SOUTH
THROUGH THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY MAY TRIGGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN HIGH
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LARGE RAINFALL RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY OF
THE STORMS.

EXPECTING MUGGY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING WELL
INTO THE 60S. 850 TEMPERATURES ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL BE COOLER THAN IN THE WEST. OVERALL PRECIPITATION AND
CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 500 MB
HEIGHTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEGIN TO RISE ON TUESDAY WITH THE
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND WEDGED DOWN THE
APPALACHIANS THROUGH TUESDAY. BY THURSDAY A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH WILL
BE IN PLACE.

CHALLENGING TO TIME SHORT WAVES COMING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE.
WPC WAS FAVORING A BLEND OF ENSEMBLE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS KEEPS FORECAST AREA IN A PERSISTENT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME WILL BE
EMPHASIZING SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST CHANCE IN THIS TIME FRAME.

WILL BE WARMING UP CLOSER TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT THURSDAY...

PATCHY MORNING FOG ANTICIPATED AREAWIDE...MAINLY MVFR...BUT CAN`T
RULE OUT BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR/LIFR FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND DAYBREAK.
ANY FOG AND STRATUS THAT FORMS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE WITH
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AFTER 13Z/9AM.

SHALLOW EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO WEST
NORTHWEST WINDS LATER THIS MORNING. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY...WINDS 6-12 KTS...AND GUSTY NEAR THE
RIDGE CRESTS. THE DEEPER FLOW...WELL ALOFT...IS ALSO FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL TRANSPORT DEBRIS CLOUDINESS DOWNSTREAM FROM
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS...CLOUD
LAYERS MAINLY ABOVE 10KFT.

WITH WINDS OUT OF THE WEST TODAY...THIS WILL CREATE DOWNSLOPE
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AND SUBSIDENCE. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF LOCAL STORM ACTIVITY...DEEP CONVECTION...DUE TO THIS
DOWNWARD VERTICAL MOTION. THE SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
TOWARD SUNSET...THUS POTENTIAL FOR STORM ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE...BUT MAINLY CONFINED LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY VCNTY OF STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. STORMS WHICH DEVELOP VCNTY
OF THIS BOUNDARY...ACROSS IL/IN/OH/KY...WILL MOVE DOWNSTREAM
TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS EVENING AND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FROM WEST
VIRGINIA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...THE THREAT TRANSITIONING
DOWNSTREAM INTO VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. INTRODUCED
VCNTY TSRA FOR ALL THE TERMINALS AFTER 22Z/6PM...THE STORM THREAT
PERSISTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR THE WV
TERMINALS.

EXTENDED AVIATION...

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH PERIODICALLY AND
INTERACTING WITH A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO
THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR...EXPECT STRATUS AND FOG
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR MOST
PRONOUNCED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 9AM EACH DAY. MODELS ARE INDICATED
THAT A DEEPER EASTERLY SORT OF WIND FLOW WILL SETUP FOR THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS SUGGEST THAT LOW CIGS MAY PERSIST EVEN
DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD
MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND DUE TO MOISTURE
BANKING UP AGAINST THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...PM



000
FXUS61 KRNK 210640
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
240 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACKING EAST AND SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE BOUNDARY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
REGION EACH DAY. THE FRONT SHOULD SHIFT BACK SOUTH OF THE REGION
SATURDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1120 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

MLCAPES OVER 1500 J/KG STILL LINGERING OVER THE PIEDMONT LATE THIS
EVENING KEEPING CONVECTION ONGOING FROM THE NC/VA LINE NORTH INTO
BUCKINGHAM COUNTY. AIRMASS HAS BEEN WORKED OVER ACROSS THE
MTNS...AND DESPITE A STRONGER WAVE DEPICTED BY LATEST RAP ANALYSIS
OVER KY...NOT SEEING MUCH OF ANYTHING EXCEPT ISOLATED/WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWER THREAT THROUGH 3 AM OUT OVER FAR SW VA INTO NW
NC. THINK THE CONVECTION OUT EAST WILL EXIT THE CWA BY 1 AM.

SKIES WILL BE VARIABLY CLOUDY WITH LOTS OF HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS
THE WEST AND SOUTH. CLEARING TAKES PLACE INTO EARLY MORNING OUT
EAST...WITH MORE CLOUDS ARRIVING INTO THE APPALACHIANS AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER ILLINOIS THIS EVENING. MODELS HAVE
SLOWED TIMING DOWN SOME WITH ONSET OF NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS IN THE
MTNS...SO DELAYED CHANCES A COUPLE OF HOURS.

FOG MAY BE MORE OF AN ISSUE OUT EAST IF/WHEN IT CLEARS ESPECIALLY
WHERE IT RAINED. FOR NOW KEPT IN PATCHY FOG...WITH AREAS CLOSER TO
BUCKINGHAM COUNTY. LOW TEMPS REMAIN MUGGY IN THE 60S.




WEAK RESIDUAL FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NE ON THURSDAY AS THE WAVE CHANNEL
ALOFT AROUND THE RIDGE TO THE SW AMPLIFIES A BIT AND STARTS TO SHIFT
NORTH AS WELL. MODELS BRING ANOTHER IMPULSE QUICKLY SE OUT OF THE
UPSTREAM CONVEYER BELT AND DRIVE IT TOWARD THE NW COUNTIES
THURSDAY MORNING SIMILAR TO TODAY...PERHAPS JUST A BIT SLOWER.
HOWEVER LIFT WILL BE ENCOUNTERING DEEP NW FLOW SO UNCERTAIN AS TO
HOW FAR THIS COMPLEX MAY GET BEFORE FADING. THUS RUNNING WITH
INCREASING CHANCE POPS THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY BLUE RIDGE
WEST...WITH HIGHEST ACROSS SE WEST VA. EXPECT EARLY CONVECTION TO
AGAIN FADE CROSSING THE RIDGES AS WE SLIP IN BETWEEN WAVES BEFORE
BETTER INSTABILITY/OUTFLOW HELPS REDEVELOP AT LEAST SCATTERED
AFTERNOON COVERAGE MOUNTAINS...AND ISOLATED OUT EAST WHERE
DOWNSLOPE ALOFT WILL BE STRONGER. THEREFORE TRIMMED BACK POPS TO
MORE CHANCE NATURE GIVEN TRENDS OF LATE AND LACK OF MUCH LIFT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE NEXT WAVE IN OHIO. WARMING ALOFT AND
WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD COMBINE WITH SUNSHINE TO PUSH TEMPS ABOVE 90
SE WITH 80S MOST OTHER SPOTS PENDING EARLY CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST AREA STAYS IN BROAD NORTHWEST SYNOPTIC FLOW. PROBABILITY
OF PRECIPITATION WILL DEPEND ON WHEN SHORT WAVES COME THROUGH.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT CROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
DURING THE LATE NIGHT OR EARLY MORNING...OR UPSTREAM CLUSTERS OF
STORMS THAT SPREAD CLOUDS DOWNSTREAM OVER US WILL DIMINISH THE
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY.

MODELS HAVE AXIS OF BEST LIFT SHIFTING JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS MAY LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. BUT SURFACE BOUNDARY POSSIBLY MOVING SOUTH
THROUGH THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY MAY TRIGGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN HIGH
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LARGE RAINFALL RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY OF
THE STORMS.

EXPECTING MUGGY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING WELL
INTO THE 60S. 850 TEMPERATURES ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL BE COOLER THAN IN THE WEST. OVERALL PRECIPITATION AND
CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 500 MB
HEIGHTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEGIN TO RISE ON TUESDAY WITH THE
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND WEDGED DOWN THE
APPALACHIANS THROUGH TUESDAY. BY THURSDAY A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH WILL
BE IN PLACE.

CHALLENGING TO TIME SHORT WAVES COMING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE.
WPC WAS FAVORING A BLEND OF ENSEMBLE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS KEEPS FORECAST AREA IN A PERSISTENT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME WILL BE
EMPHASIZING SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST CHANCE IN THIS TIME FRAME.

WILL BE WARMING UP CLOSER TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT THURSDAY...

PATCHY MORNING FOG ANTICIPATED AREAWIDE...MAINLY MVFR...BUT CAN`T
RULE OUT BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR/LIFR FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND DAYBREAK.
ANY FOG AND STRATUS THAT FORMS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE WITH
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AFTER 13Z/9AM.

SHALLOW EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO WEST
NORTHWEST WINDS LATER THIS MORNING. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY...WINDS 6-12 KTS...AND GUSTY NEAR THE
RIDGE CRESTS. THE DEEPER FLOW...WELL ALOFT...IS ALSO FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL TRANSPORT DEBRIS CLOUDINESS DOWNSTREAM FROM
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS...CLOUD
LAYERS MAINLY ABOVE 10KFT.

WITH WINDS OUT OF THE WEST TODAY...THIS WILL CREATE DOWNSLOPE
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AND SUBSIDENCE. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF LOCAL STORM ACTIVITY...DEEP CONVECTION...DUE TO THIS
DOWNWARD VERTICAL MOTION. THE SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
TOWARD SUNSET...THUS POTENTIAL FOR STORM ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE...BUT MAINLY CONFINED LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY VCNTY OF STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. STORMS WHICH DEVELOP VCNTY
OF THIS BOUNDARY...ACROSS IL/IN/OH/KY...WILL MOVE DOWNSTREAM
TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS EVENING AND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FROM WEST
VIRGINIA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...THE THREAT TRANSITIONING
DOWNSTREAM INTO VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. INTRODUCED
VCNTY TSRA FOR ALL THE TERMINALS AFTER 22Z/6PM...THE STORM THREAT
PERSISTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR THE WV
TERMINALS.

EXTENDED AVIATION...

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH PERIODICALLY AND
INTERACTING WITH A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO
THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR...EXPECT STRATUS AND FOG
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR MOST
PRONOUNCED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 9AM EACH DAY. MODELS ARE INDICATED
THAT A DEEPER EASTERLY SORT OF WIND FLOW WILL SETUP FOR THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS SUGGEST THAT LOW CIGS MAY PERSIST EVEN
DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD
MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND DUE TO MOISTURE
BANKING UP AGAINST THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...PM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 210335
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1135 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACKING EAST AND SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE BOUNDARY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
REGION EACH DAY. THE FRONT SHOULD SHIFT BACK SOUTH OF THE REGION
SATURDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1120 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

MLCAPES OVER 1500 J/KG STILL LINGERING OVER THE PIEDMONT LATE THIS
EVENING KEEPING CONVECTION ONGOING FROM THE NC/VA LINE NORTH INTO
BUCKINGHAM COUNTY. AIRMASS HAS BEEN WORKED OVER ACROSS THE
MTNS...AND DESPITE A STRONGER WAVE DEPICTED BY LATEST RAP ANALYSIS
OVER KY...NOT SEEING MUCH OF ANYTHING EXCEPT ISOLATED/WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWER THREAT THROUGH 3 AM OUT OVER FAR SW VA INTO NW
NC. THINK THE CONVECTION OUT EAST WILL EXIT THE CWA BY 1 AM.

SKIES WILL BE VARIABLY CLOUDY WITH LOTS OF HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS
THE WEST AND SOUTH. CLEARING TAKES PLACE INTO EARLY MORNING OUT
EAST...WITH MORE CLOUDS ARRIVING INTO THE APPALACHIANS AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER ILLINOIS THIS EVENING. MODELS HAVE
SLOWED TIMING DOWN SOME WITH ONSET OF NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS IN THE
MTNS...SO DELAYED CHANCES A COUPLE OF HOURS.

FOG MAY BE MORE OF AN ISSUE OUT EAST IF/WHEN IT CLEARS ESPECIALLY
WHERE IT RAINED. FOR NOW KEPT IN PATCHY FOG...WITH AREAS CLOSER TO
BUCKINGHAM COUNTY. LOW TEMPS REMAIN MUGGY IN THE 60S.




WEAK RESIDUAL FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NE ON THURSDAY AS THE WAVE CHANNEL
ALOFT AROUND THE RIDGE TO THE SW AMPLIFIES A BIT AND STARTS TO SHIFT
NORTH AS WELL. MODELS BRING ANOTHER IMPULSE QUICKLY SE OUT OF THE
UPSTREAM CONVEYER BELT AND DRIVE IT TOWARD THE NW COUNTIES
THURSDAY MORNING SIMILAR TO TODAY...PERHAPS JUST A BIT SLOWER.
HOWEVER LIFT WILL BE ENCOUNTERING DEEP NW FLOW SO UNCERTAIN AS TO
HOW FAR THIS COMPLEX MAY GET BEFORE FADING. THUS RUNNING WITH
INCREASING CHANCE POPS THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY BLUE RIDGE
WEST...WITH HIGHEST ACROSS SE WEST VA. EXPECT EARLY CONVECTION TO
AGAIN FADE CROSSING THE RIDGES AS WE SLIP IN BETWEEN WAVES BEFORE
BETTER INSTABILITY/OUTFLOW HELPS REDEVELOP AT LEAST SCATTERED
AFTERNOON COVERAGE MOUNTAINS...AND ISOLATED OUT EAST WHERE
DOWNSLOPE ALOFT WILL BE STRONGER. THEREFORE TRIMMED BACK POPS TO
MORE CHANCE NATURE GIVEN TRENDS OF LATE AND LACK OF MUCH LIFT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE NEXT WAVE IN OHIO. WARMING ALOFT AND
WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD COMBINE WITH SUNSHINE TO PUSH TEMPS ABOVE 90
SE WITH 80S MOST OTHER SPOTS PENDING EARLY CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST AREA STAYS IN BROAD NORTHWEST SYNOPTIC FLOW. PROBABILITY
OF PRECIPITATION WILL DEPEND ON WHEN SHORT WAVES COME THROUGH.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT CROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
DURING THE LATE NIGHT OR EARLY MORNING...OR UPSTREAM CLUSTERS OF
STORMS THAT SPREAD CLOUDS DOWNSTREAM OVER US WILL DIMINISH THE
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY.

MODELS HAVE AXIS OF BEST LIFT SHIFTING JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS MAY LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. BUT SURFACE BOUNDARY POSSIBLY MOVING SOUTH
THROUGH THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY MAY TRIGGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN HIGH
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LARGE RAINFALL RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY OF
THE STORMS.

EXPECTING MUGGY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING WELL
INTO THE 60S. 850 TEMPERATURES ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL BE COOLER THAN IN THE WEST. OVERALL PRECIPITATION AND
CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 500 MB
HEIGHTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEGIN TO RISE ON TUESDAY WITH THE
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND WEDGED DOWN THE
APPALACHIANS THROUGH TUESDAY. BY THURSDAY A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH WILL
BE IN PLACE.

CHALLENGING TO TIME SHORT WAVES COMING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE.
WPC WAS FAVORING A BLEND OF ENSEMBLE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS KEEPS FORECAST AREA IN A PERSISTENT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME WILL BE
EMPHASIZING SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST CHANCE IN THIS TIME FRAME.

WILL BE WARMING UP CLOSER TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 720 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THERE IS A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...
TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS EVENING. THERE IS ALSO ANOTHER
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA.
BOTH OF THESE STORMS ARE TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST. WE WILL NEED
TO WATCH THE STORMS TO THE WEST AS THEY MAY CLIP THE FORECAST AREA
FROM BLUEFIELD WV TO MOUNT AIRY NC EARLY. AT TAF TIME...THERE ARE
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. THESE SHOWERS WILL FADE WITH SUNSET. THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...PATCHY DENSE FOG MAY DEVELOP IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND
MORESO IN AREAS THAT SEE RAIN THIS EVENING.

FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY THURSDAY. IMPULSES TO THE
WEST WILL LIKELY BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION TOMORROW. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM ACTIVITY SURROUND THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING MAY ALSO GENERATE STORMS TOMORROW. THE
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS GOOD WHILE TIMING CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. FOR NOW...WILL ONLY CARRY VICINITY STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
FOR ALL SITES.

EXTENDED AVIATION...

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH PERIODICALLY AND
INTERACTING WITH A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO
THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR...EXPECT STRATUS AND FOG
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR MOST
PRONOUNCED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 9AM EACH DAY. MODELS ARE INDICATED
THAT A DEEPER EASTERLY SORT OF WIND FLOW WILL SETUP FOR THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS SUGGEST THAT LOW CIGS MAY PERSIST EVEN
DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD
MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND DUE TO MOISTURE
BANKING UP AGAINST THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...MBS/RCS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 210335
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1135 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACKING EAST AND SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE BOUNDARY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
REGION EACH DAY. THE FRONT SHOULD SHIFT BACK SOUTH OF THE REGION
SATURDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1120 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

MLCAPES OVER 1500 J/KG STILL LINGERING OVER THE PIEDMONT LATE THIS
EVENING KEEPING CONVECTION ONGOING FROM THE NC/VA LINE NORTH INTO
BUCKINGHAM COUNTY. AIRMASS HAS BEEN WORKED OVER ACROSS THE
MTNS...AND DESPITE A STRONGER WAVE DEPICTED BY LATEST RAP ANALYSIS
OVER KY...NOT SEEING MUCH OF ANYTHING EXCEPT ISOLATED/WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWER THREAT THROUGH 3 AM OUT OVER FAR SW VA INTO NW
NC. THINK THE CONVECTION OUT EAST WILL EXIT THE CWA BY 1 AM.

SKIES WILL BE VARIABLY CLOUDY WITH LOTS OF HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS
THE WEST AND SOUTH. CLEARING TAKES PLACE INTO EARLY MORNING OUT
EAST...WITH MORE CLOUDS ARRIVING INTO THE APPALACHIANS AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER ILLINOIS THIS EVENING. MODELS HAVE
SLOWED TIMING DOWN SOME WITH ONSET OF NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS IN THE
MTNS...SO DELAYED CHANCES A COUPLE OF HOURS.

FOG MAY BE MORE OF AN ISSUE OUT EAST IF/WHEN IT CLEARS ESPECIALLY
WHERE IT RAINED. FOR NOW KEPT IN PATCHY FOG...WITH AREAS CLOSER TO
BUCKINGHAM COUNTY. LOW TEMPS REMAIN MUGGY IN THE 60S.




WEAK RESIDUAL FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NE ON THURSDAY AS THE WAVE CHANNEL
ALOFT AROUND THE RIDGE TO THE SW AMPLIFIES A BIT AND STARTS TO SHIFT
NORTH AS WELL. MODELS BRING ANOTHER IMPULSE QUICKLY SE OUT OF THE
UPSTREAM CONVEYER BELT AND DRIVE IT TOWARD THE NW COUNTIES
THURSDAY MORNING SIMILAR TO TODAY...PERHAPS JUST A BIT SLOWER.
HOWEVER LIFT WILL BE ENCOUNTERING DEEP NW FLOW SO UNCERTAIN AS TO
HOW FAR THIS COMPLEX MAY GET BEFORE FADING. THUS RUNNING WITH
INCREASING CHANCE POPS THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY BLUE RIDGE
WEST...WITH HIGHEST ACROSS SE WEST VA. EXPECT EARLY CONVECTION TO
AGAIN FADE CROSSING THE RIDGES AS WE SLIP IN BETWEEN WAVES BEFORE
BETTER INSTABILITY/OUTFLOW HELPS REDEVELOP AT LEAST SCATTERED
AFTERNOON COVERAGE MOUNTAINS...AND ISOLATED OUT EAST WHERE
DOWNSLOPE ALOFT WILL BE STRONGER. THEREFORE TRIMMED BACK POPS TO
MORE CHANCE NATURE GIVEN TRENDS OF LATE AND LACK OF MUCH LIFT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE NEXT WAVE IN OHIO. WARMING ALOFT AND
WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD COMBINE WITH SUNSHINE TO PUSH TEMPS ABOVE 90
SE WITH 80S MOST OTHER SPOTS PENDING EARLY CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST AREA STAYS IN BROAD NORTHWEST SYNOPTIC FLOW. PROBABILITY
OF PRECIPITATION WILL DEPEND ON WHEN SHORT WAVES COME THROUGH.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT CROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
DURING THE LATE NIGHT OR EARLY MORNING...OR UPSTREAM CLUSTERS OF
STORMS THAT SPREAD CLOUDS DOWNSTREAM OVER US WILL DIMINISH THE
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY.

MODELS HAVE AXIS OF BEST LIFT SHIFTING JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS MAY LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. BUT SURFACE BOUNDARY POSSIBLY MOVING SOUTH
THROUGH THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY MAY TRIGGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN HIGH
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LARGE RAINFALL RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY OF
THE STORMS.

EXPECTING MUGGY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING WELL
INTO THE 60S. 850 TEMPERATURES ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL BE COOLER THAN IN THE WEST. OVERALL PRECIPITATION AND
CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 500 MB
HEIGHTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEGIN TO RISE ON TUESDAY WITH THE
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND WEDGED DOWN THE
APPALACHIANS THROUGH TUESDAY. BY THURSDAY A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH WILL
BE IN PLACE.

CHALLENGING TO TIME SHORT WAVES COMING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE.
WPC WAS FAVORING A BLEND OF ENSEMBLE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS KEEPS FORECAST AREA IN A PERSISTENT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME WILL BE
EMPHASIZING SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST CHANCE IN THIS TIME FRAME.

WILL BE WARMING UP CLOSER TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 720 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THERE IS A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...
TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS EVENING. THERE IS ALSO ANOTHER
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA.
BOTH OF THESE STORMS ARE TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST. WE WILL NEED
TO WATCH THE STORMS TO THE WEST AS THEY MAY CLIP THE FORECAST AREA
FROM BLUEFIELD WV TO MOUNT AIRY NC EARLY. AT TAF TIME...THERE ARE
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. THESE SHOWERS WILL FADE WITH SUNSET. THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...PATCHY DENSE FOG MAY DEVELOP IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND
MORESO IN AREAS THAT SEE RAIN THIS EVENING.

FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY THURSDAY. IMPULSES TO THE
WEST WILL LIKELY BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION TOMORROW. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM ACTIVITY SURROUND THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING MAY ALSO GENERATE STORMS TOMORROW. THE
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS GOOD WHILE TIMING CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. FOR NOW...WILL ONLY CARRY VICINITY STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
FOR ALL SITES.

EXTENDED AVIATION...

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH PERIODICALLY AND
INTERACTING WITH A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO
THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR...EXPECT STRATUS AND FOG
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR MOST
PRONOUNCED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 9AM EACH DAY. MODELS ARE INDICATED
THAT A DEEPER EASTERLY SORT OF WIND FLOW WILL SETUP FOR THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS SUGGEST THAT LOW CIGS MAY PERSIST EVEN
DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD
MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND DUE TO MOISTURE
BANKING UP AGAINST THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...MBS/RCS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 210335
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1135 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACKING EAST AND SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE BOUNDARY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
REGION EACH DAY. THE FRONT SHOULD SHIFT BACK SOUTH OF THE REGION
SATURDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1120 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

MLCAPES OVER 1500 J/KG STILL LINGERING OVER THE PIEDMONT LATE THIS
EVENING KEEPING CONVECTION ONGOING FROM THE NC/VA LINE NORTH INTO
BUCKINGHAM COUNTY. AIRMASS HAS BEEN WORKED OVER ACROSS THE
MTNS...AND DESPITE A STRONGER WAVE DEPICTED BY LATEST RAP ANALYSIS
OVER KY...NOT SEEING MUCH OF ANYTHING EXCEPT ISOLATED/WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWER THREAT THROUGH 3 AM OUT OVER FAR SW VA INTO NW
NC. THINK THE CONVECTION OUT EAST WILL EXIT THE CWA BY 1 AM.

SKIES WILL BE VARIABLY CLOUDY WITH LOTS OF HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS
THE WEST AND SOUTH. CLEARING TAKES PLACE INTO EARLY MORNING OUT
EAST...WITH MORE CLOUDS ARRIVING INTO THE APPALACHIANS AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER ILLINOIS THIS EVENING. MODELS HAVE
SLOWED TIMING DOWN SOME WITH ONSET OF NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS IN THE
MTNS...SO DELAYED CHANCES A COUPLE OF HOURS.

FOG MAY BE MORE OF AN ISSUE OUT EAST IF/WHEN IT CLEARS ESPECIALLY
WHERE IT RAINED. FOR NOW KEPT IN PATCHY FOG...WITH AREAS CLOSER TO
BUCKINGHAM COUNTY. LOW TEMPS REMAIN MUGGY IN THE 60S.




WEAK RESIDUAL FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NE ON THURSDAY AS THE WAVE CHANNEL
ALOFT AROUND THE RIDGE TO THE SW AMPLIFIES A BIT AND STARTS TO SHIFT
NORTH AS WELL. MODELS BRING ANOTHER IMPULSE QUICKLY SE OUT OF THE
UPSTREAM CONVEYER BELT AND DRIVE IT TOWARD THE NW COUNTIES
THURSDAY MORNING SIMILAR TO TODAY...PERHAPS JUST A BIT SLOWER.
HOWEVER LIFT WILL BE ENCOUNTERING DEEP NW FLOW SO UNCERTAIN AS TO
HOW FAR THIS COMPLEX MAY GET BEFORE FADING. THUS RUNNING WITH
INCREASING CHANCE POPS THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY BLUE RIDGE
WEST...WITH HIGHEST ACROSS SE WEST VA. EXPECT EARLY CONVECTION TO
AGAIN FADE CROSSING THE RIDGES AS WE SLIP IN BETWEEN WAVES BEFORE
BETTER INSTABILITY/OUTFLOW HELPS REDEVELOP AT LEAST SCATTERED
AFTERNOON COVERAGE MOUNTAINS...AND ISOLATED OUT EAST WHERE
DOWNSLOPE ALOFT WILL BE STRONGER. THEREFORE TRIMMED BACK POPS TO
MORE CHANCE NATURE GIVEN TRENDS OF LATE AND LACK OF MUCH LIFT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE NEXT WAVE IN OHIO. WARMING ALOFT AND
WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD COMBINE WITH SUNSHINE TO PUSH TEMPS ABOVE 90
SE WITH 80S MOST OTHER SPOTS PENDING EARLY CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST AREA STAYS IN BROAD NORTHWEST SYNOPTIC FLOW. PROBABILITY
OF PRECIPITATION WILL DEPEND ON WHEN SHORT WAVES COME THROUGH.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT CROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
DURING THE LATE NIGHT OR EARLY MORNING...OR UPSTREAM CLUSTERS OF
STORMS THAT SPREAD CLOUDS DOWNSTREAM OVER US WILL DIMINISH THE
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY.

MODELS HAVE AXIS OF BEST LIFT SHIFTING JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS MAY LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. BUT SURFACE BOUNDARY POSSIBLY MOVING SOUTH
THROUGH THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY MAY TRIGGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN HIGH
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LARGE RAINFALL RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY OF
THE STORMS.

EXPECTING MUGGY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING WELL
INTO THE 60S. 850 TEMPERATURES ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL BE COOLER THAN IN THE WEST. OVERALL PRECIPITATION AND
CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 500 MB
HEIGHTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEGIN TO RISE ON TUESDAY WITH THE
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND WEDGED DOWN THE
APPALACHIANS THROUGH TUESDAY. BY THURSDAY A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH WILL
BE IN PLACE.

CHALLENGING TO TIME SHORT WAVES COMING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE.
WPC WAS FAVORING A BLEND OF ENSEMBLE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS KEEPS FORECAST AREA IN A PERSISTENT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME WILL BE
EMPHASIZING SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST CHANCE IN THIS TIME FRAME.

WILL BE WARMING UP CLOSER TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 720 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THERE IS A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...
TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS EVENING. THERE IS ALSO ANOTHER
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA.
BOTH OF THESE STORMS ARE TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST. WE WILL NEED
TO WATCH THE STORMS TO THE WEST AS THEY MAY CLIP THE FORECAST AREA
FROM BLUEFIELD WV TO MOUNT AIRY NC EARLY. AT TAF TIME...THERE ARE
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. THESE SHOWERS WILL FADE WITH SUNSET. THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...PATCHY DENSE FOG MAY DEVELOP IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND
MORESO IN AREAS THAT SEE RAIN THIS EVENING.

FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY THURSDAY. IMPULSES TO THE
WEST WILL LIKELY BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION TOMORROW. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM ACTIVITY SURROUND THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING MAY ALSO GENERATE STORMS TOMORROW. THE
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS GOOD WHILE TIMING CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. FOR NOW...WILL ONLY CARRY VICINITY STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
FOR ALL SITES.

EXTENDED AVIATION...

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH PERIODICALLY AND
INTERACTING WITH A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO
THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR...EXPECT STRATUS AND FOG
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR MOST
PRONOUNCED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 9AM EACH DAY. MODELS ARE INDICATED
THAT A DEEPER EASTERLY SORT OF WIND FLOW WILL SETUP FOR THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS SUGGEST THAT LOW CIGS MAY PERSIST EVEN
DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD
MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND DUE TO MOISTURE
BANKING UP AGAINST THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...MBS/RCS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 210335
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1135 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACKING EAST AND SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE BOUNDARY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
REGION EACH DAY. THE FRONT SHOULD SHIFT BACK SOUTH OF THE REGION
SATURDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1120 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

MLCAPES OVER 1500 J/KG STILL LINGERING OVER THE PIEDMONT LATE THIS
EVENING KEEPING CONVECTION ONGOING FROM THE NC/VA LINE NORTH INTO
BUCKINGHAM COUNTY. AIRMASS HAS BEEN WORKED OVER ACROSS THE
MTNS...AND DESPITE A STRONGER WAVE DEPICTED BY LATEST RAP ANALYSIS
OVER KY...NOT SEEING MUCH OF ANYTHING EXCEPT ISOLATED/WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWER THREAT THROUGH 3 AM OUT OVER FAR SW VA INTO NW
NC. THINK THE CONVECTION OUT EAST WILL EXIT THE CWA BY 1 AM.

SKIES WILL BE VARIABLY CLOUDY WITH LOTS OF HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS
THE WEST AND SOUTH. CLEARING TAKES PLACE INTO EARLY MORNING OUT
EAST...WITH MORE CLOUDS ARRIVING INTO THE APPALACHIANS AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER ILLINOIS THIS EVENING. MODELS HAVE
SLOWED TIMING DOWN SOME WITH ONSET OF NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS IN THE
MTNS...SO DELAYED CHANCES A COUPLE OF HOURS.

FOG MAY BE MORE OF AN ISSUE OUT EAST IF/WHEN IT CLEARS ESPECIALLY
WHERE IT RAINED. FOR NOW KEPT IN PATCHY FOG...WITH AREAS CLOSER TO
BUCKINGHAM COUNTY. LOW TEMPS REMAIN MUGGY IN THE 60S.




WEAK RESIDUAL FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NE ON THURSDAY AS THE WAVE CHANNEL
ALOFT AROUND THE RIDGE TO THE SW AMPLIFIES A BIT AND STARTS TO SHIFT
NORTH AS WELL. MODELS BRING ANOTHER IMPULSE QUICKLY SE OUT OF THE
UPSTREAM CONVEYER BELT AND DRIVE IT TOWARD THE NW COUNTIES
THURSDAY MORNING SIMILAR TO TODAY...PERHAPS JUST A BIT SLOWER.
HOWEVER LIFT WILL BE ENCOUNTERING DEEP NW FLOW SO UNCERTAIN AS TO
HOW FAR THIS COMPLEX MAY GET BEFORE FADING. THUS RUNNING WITH
INCREASING CHANCE POPS THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY BLUE RIDGE
WEST...WITH HIGHEST ACROSS SE WEST VA. EXPECT EARLY CONVECTION TO
AGAIN FADE CROSSING THE RIDGES AS WE SLIP IN BETWEEN WAVES BEFORE
BETTER INSTABILITY/OUTFLOW HELPS REDEVELOP AT LEAST SCATTERED
AFTERNOON COVERAGE MOUNTAINS...AND ISOLATED OUT EAST WHERE
DOWNSLOPE ALOFT WILL BE STRONGER. THEREFORE TRIMMED BACK POPS TO
MORE CHANCE NATURE GIVEN TRENDS OF LATE AND LACK OF MUCH LIFT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE NEXT WAVE IN OHIO. WARMING ALOFT AND
WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD COMBINE WITH SUNSHINE TO PUSH TEMPS ABOVE 90
SE WITH 80S MOST OTHER SPOTS PENDING EARLY CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST AREA STAYS IN BROAD NORTHWEST SYNOPTIC FLOW. PROBABILITY
OF PRECIPITATION WILL DEPEND ON WHEN SHORT WAVES COME THROUGH.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT CROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
DURING THE LATE NIGHT OR EARLY MORNING...OR UPSTREAM CLUSTERS OF
STORMS THAT SPREAD CLOUDS DOWNSTREAM OVER US WILL DIMINISH THE
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY.

MODELS HAVE AXIS OF BEST LIFT SHIFTING JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS MAY LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. BUT SURFACE BOUNDARY POSSIBLY MOVING SOUTH
THROUGH THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY MAY TRIGGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN HIGH
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LARGE RAINFALL RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY OF
THE STORMS.

EXPECTING MUGGY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING WELL
INTO THE 60S. 850 TEMPERATURES ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL BE COOLER THAN IN THE WEST. OVERALL PRECIPITATION AND
CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 500 MB
HEIGHTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEGIN TO RISE ON TUESDAY WITH THE
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND WEDGED DOWN THE
APPALACHIANS THROUGH TUESDAY. BY THURSDAY A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH WILL
BE IN PLACE.

CHALLENGING TO TIME SHORT WAVES COMING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE.
WPC WAS FAVORING A BLEND OF ENSEMBLE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS KEEPS FORECAST AREA IN A PERSISTENT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME WILL BE
EMPHASIZING SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST CHANCE IN THIS TIME FRAME.

WILL BE WARMING UP CLOSER TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 720 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THERE IS A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...
TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS EVENING. THERE IS ALSO ANOTHER
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA.
BOTH OF THESE STORMS ARE TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST. WE WILL NEED
TO WATCH THE STORMS TO THE WEST AS THEY MAY CLIP THE FORECAST AREA
FROM BLUEFIELD WV TO MOUNT AIRY NC EARLY. AT TAF TIME...THERE ARE
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. THESE SHOWERS WILL FADE WITH SUNSET. THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...PATCHY DENSE FOG MAY DEVELOP IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND
MORESO IN AREAS THAT SEE RAIN THIS EVENING.

FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY THURSDAY. IMPULSES TO THE
WEST WILL LIKELY BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION TOMORROW. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM ACTIVITY SURROUND THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING MAY ALSO GENERATE STORMS TOMORROW. THE
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS GOOD WHILE TIMING CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. FOR NOW...WILL ONLY CARRY VICINITY STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
FOR ALL SITES.

EXTENDED AVIATION...

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH PERIODICALLY AND
INTERACTING WITH A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO
THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR...EXPECT STRATUS AND FOG
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR MOST
PRONOUNCED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 9AM EACH DAY. MODELS ARE INDICATED
THAT A DEEPER EASTERLY SORT OF WIND FLOW WILL SETUP FOR THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS SUGGEST THAT LOW CIGS MAY PERSIST EVEN
DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD
MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND DUE TO MOISTURE
BANKING UP AGAINST THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...MBS/RCS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210245
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1045 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND STALLS NEAR
THE COAST THURSDAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A CLUSTER OF TSTMS DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTRAL VIRGINIA PIEDMONT
NORTH OF OUR CWA EARLY THIS EVENING. A NORTH TO SOUTH AXIS OF
INSTABILITY WAS IN PLACE WITH MORE STABLE AIR TO THE EAST WHERE DEW
POINTS WERE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER. A WARM FRONT JUST TO THE WEST OF
THIS INSTABILITY AXIS HELPED TO DRAW THE TSTMS STRAIGHT SOUTH.

SOME OF THE TSTMS HAVE BEEN SEVERE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS GOOCHLAND AND
POWHATAN COUNTIES. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND DIMINISH
INTO SHOWERS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FARTHER TO THE EAST...ONSHORE E/SE WINDS AND CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN MAINLY DRY. HAVE SLGT CHC SHOWERS IN THESE AREAS TOWARD
MORNING. NO SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY ISSUES ARE INDICATED BUT SOME
PATCHY FOG WILL BE PSBL...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND IN
AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN DURING THE EVENING. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT STALLS IN VICINITY OF THE COAST THURSDAY. OVERALL
FORCING FOR CONVECTION IS WEAK. HOWEVER...A 20% POP WILL BE
MAINTAINED FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. NW MID-LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY...WITH A WEAK IMPULSE PASSING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD BE ACROSS NRN
PORTIONS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE LOW. A MORE VIGOROUS
WAVE DROPS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE BEST CHC OF AND
GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
DURING THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD DUE TO STRONGER UPPER JET SUPPORT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND PUSHES S INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PUSH THE FRONT S OF THE AREA. AT THIS
TIME...POPS RANGE FORM SLIGHT CHC OVER NE PORTIONS TO CHC ACROSS
S/SW PORTIONS.

HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...BEFORE DROPPING BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 80S
(POSSIBLY UPPER 70S FAR NE) SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS SHOULD
MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DECREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP AND NEAR SEASONABLE...LATE SUMMER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST.

UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE CNTRL CONUS AND LOW PRESSURE/TROUGHING OFF THE NE COAST. FLOW
REMAINS BLOCKED OVER ERN CANADA AND THE NERN US...RESULTING IN
LITTLE PROGRESSION OF THE CNTRL CONUS RIDGE THRU THE PERIOD. THE
RESULT WILL BE ONGOING NWLY FLOW INTO THE EARLY PERIOD. BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL PUSH WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA SUN AS THE TROUGH
AMPLIFIES ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
SLIGHTLY WETTER SUN AFTER PREVIOUSLY BRINGING IN DRIER AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE STATES WILL RIDGE SWD OVER
THE LOCAL AREA IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH SUBSIDENCE INDICATED IN
MODEL SOUNDINGS. MOISTURE ALSO LOOKS TO BE ON THE DOWNTREND AS MODEL
DERIVED PWATS DROP BELOW 1.5 INCHES. WITH THAT SAID...SUN MAY END UP
BEING DRY...BUT WILL RETAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE PIEDMONT AND
COASTAL AREAS AS DISTURBANCES IN NWLY FLOW AND MODEL UNCERTAINTY
DECREASE CONFIDENCE. BETTER CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS HEADING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE CNTRL CONUS HIGH BEGINS TO NUDGE IN FROM
THE WEST AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WINS OUT. BEST MOISTURE ALSO GETS
SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. TREND CONTINUES INTO TUES AND WEDS AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD AND DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WIN OUT.

ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELD DAYTIME TEMPS GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THRU TUES (-1 STD DEV FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR). RETURN FLOW ON WEDS AND WARMING THICKNESSES PUSH TEMPS BACK
INTO THE MID 80S. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S THRU THE PERIOD
AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOW-MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
ACROSS WESTERN VIRGINIA TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THIS FRONT
SHOULD MOVE ONLY SLOWLY TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT AND STALL TOWARD THE
COAST ON THURSDAY.

LINE OF TSTMS NW OF RIC WILL MOVE SOUTH ALONG A THETA E RIDGE AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS MAY WEAKEN INTO A CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. RIC APPEARS TO BE ON THE
ERN FRINGE OF THE ACTIVITY AND HAVE TEMPO SHOWERS FROM 02 TO 04Z.

MVFR CONDS EXPECTED AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES DUE TO LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS. WITH VERY LITTLE IFR HAVING OCCURRED
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WITH A WIDER T/TD SPREAD THAN 24 HOURS AGO...
CONFIDENCE IN IFR IS RATHER LOW.

MAINLY VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THURSDAY BEYOND 14Z. SCT TSTMS CAN BE
EXPECTED MAINLY LATE IN THE DAY OR DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...SCT MAINLY AFTN AND EVENING TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER INDICATED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A FEW
HOURS OF MVFR/IFR CAN BE EXPECTED AROUND SUNRISE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTH
HAS RESULTED IN ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. SPEEDS
AVG AROUND 10 KT WITH SEAS GENERALLY 3 FT AND WAVES 2 FT. WARM FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE WATERS TONIGHT FROM THE WEST AS THE RIDGE AXIS AND
SFC LOW PUSH FARTHER OUT TO SEA. THIS WILL VEER THE FLOW AROUND TO
THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT...AVG 10 KT. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TO 2-3
FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS NEAR THE WATERS THURS
AS ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE WATERS THURS
NIGHT-FRI MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE STATES RIDGES SWD OVER
THE WATERS FRI NIGHT-SAT AS LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NC COAST.
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING NELY WINDS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT THRU SAT. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE NE COAST THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. ATTM...SPEEDS APPEAR TO REMAIN
SUB-SCA...BUT SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 4-5 FT LATE SAT THRU
MON.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LSA
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210245
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1045 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND STALLS NEAR
THE COAST THURSDAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A CLUSTER OF TSTMS DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTRAL VIRGINIA PIEDMONT
NORTH OF OUR CWA EARLY THIS EVENING. A NORTH TO SOUTH AXIS OF
INSTABILITY WAS IN PLACE WITH MORE STABLE AIR TO THE EAST WHERE DEW
POINTS WERE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER. A WARM FRONT JUST TO THE WEST OF
THIS INSTABILITY AXIS HELPED TO DRAW THE TSTMS STRAIGHT SOUTH.

SOME OF THE TSTMS HAVE BEEN SEVERE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS GOOCHLAND AND
POWHATAN COUNTIES. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND DIMINISH
INTO SHOWERS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FARTHER TO THE EAST...ONSHORE E/SE WINDS AND CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN MAINLY DRY. HAVE SLGT CHC SHOWERS IN THESE AREAS TOWARD
MORNING. NO SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY ISSUES ARE INDICATED BUT SOME
PATCHY FOG WILL BE PSBL...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND IN
AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN DURING THE EVENING. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT STALLS IN VICINITY OF THE COAST THURSDAY. OVERALL
FORCING FOR CONVECTION IS WEAK. HOWEVER...A 20% POP WILL BE
MAINTAINED FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. NW MID-LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY...WITH A WEAK IMPULSE PASSING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD BE ACROSS NRN
PORTIONS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE LOW. A MORE VIGOROUS
WAVE DROPS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE BEST CHC OF AND
GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
DURING THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD DUE TO STRONGER UPPER JET SUPPORT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND PUSHES S INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PUSH THE FRONT S OF THE AREA. AT THIS
TIME...POPS RANGE FORM SLIGHT CHC OVER NE PORTIONS TO CHC ACROSS
S/SW PORTIONS.

HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...BEFORE DROPPING BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 80S
(POSSIBLY UPPER 70S FAR NE) SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS SHOULD
MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DECREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP AND NEAR SEASONABLE...LATE SUMMER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST.

UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE CNTRL CONUS AND LOW PRESSURE/TROUGHING OFF THE NE COAST. FLOW
REMAINS BLOCKED OVER ERN CANADA AND THE NERN US...RESULTING IN
LITTLE PROGRESSION OF THE CNTRL CONUS RIDGE THRU THE PERIOD. THE
RESULT WILL BE ONGOING NWLY FLOW INTO THE EARLY PERIOD. BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL PUSH WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA SUN AS THE TROUGH
AMPLIFIES ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
SLIGHTLY WETTER SUN AFTER PREVIOUSLY BRINGING IN DRIER AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE STATES WILL RIDGE SWD OVER
THE LOCAL AREA IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH SUBSIDENCE INDICATED IN
MODEL SOUNDINGS. MOISTURE ALSO LOOKS TO BE ON THE DOWNTREND AS MODEL
DERIVED PWATS DROP BELOW 1.5 INCHES. WITH THAT SAID...SUN MAY END UP
BEING DRY...BUT WILL RETAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE PIEDMONT AND
COASTAL AREAS AS DISTURBANCES IN NWLY FLOW AND MODEL UNCERTAINTY
DECREASE CONFIDENCE. BETTER CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS HEADING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE CNTRL CONUS HIGH BEGINS TO NUDGE IN FROM
THE WEST AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WINS OUT. BEST MOISTURE ALSO GETS
SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. TREND CONTINUES INTO TUES AND WEDS AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD AND DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WIN OUT.

ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELD DAYTIME TEMPS GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THRU TUES (-1 STD DEV FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR). RETURN FLOW ON WEDS AND WARMING THICKNESSES PUSH TEMPS BACK
INTO THE MID 80S. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S THRU THE PERIOD
AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOW-MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
ACROSS WESTERN VIRGINIA TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THIS FRONT
SHOULD MOVE ONLY SLOWLY TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT AND STALL TOWARD THE
COAST ON THURSDAY.

LINE OF TSTMS NW OF RIC WILL MOVE SOUTH ALONG A THETA E RIDGE AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS MAY WEAKEN INTO A CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. RIC APPEARS TO BE ON THE
ERN FRINGE OF THE ACTIVITY AND HAVE TEMPO SHOWERS FROM 02 TO 04Z.

MVFR CONDS EXPECTED AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES DUE TO LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS. WITH VERY LITTLE IFR HAVING OCCURRED
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WITH A WIDER T/TD SPREAD THAN 24 HOURS AGO...
CONFIDENCE IN IFR IS RATHER LOW.

MAINLY VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THURSDAY BEYOND 14Z. SCT TSTMS CAN BE
EXPECTED MAINLY LATE IN THE DAY OR DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...SCT MAINLY AFTN AND EVENING TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER INDICATED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A FEW
HOURS OF MVFR/IFR CAN BE EXPECTED AROUND SUNRISE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTH
HAS RESULTED IN ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. SPEEDS
AVG AROUND 10 KT WITH SEAS GENERALLY 3 FT AND WAVES 2 FT. WARM FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE WATERS TONIGHT FROM THE WEST AS THE RIDGE AXIS AND
SFC LOW PUSH FARTHER OUT TO SEA. THIS WILL VEER THE FLOW AROUND TO
THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT...AVG 10 KT. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TO 2-3
FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS NEAR THE WATERS THURS
AS ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE WATERS THURS
NIGHT-FRI MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE STATES RIDGES SWD OVER
THE WATERS FRI NIGHT-SAT AS LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NC COAST.
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING NELY WINDS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT THRU SAT. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE NE COAST THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. ATTM...SPEEDS APPEAR TO REMAIN
SUB-SCA...BUT SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 4-5 FT LATE SAT THRU
MON.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LSA
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210245
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1045 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND STALLS NEAR
THE COAST THURSDAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A CLUSTER OF TSTMS DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTRAL VIRGINIA PIEDMONT
NORTH OF OUR CWA EARLY THIS EVENING. A NORTH TO SOUTH AXIS OF
INSTABILITY WAS IN PLACE WITH MORE STABLE AIR TO THE EAST WHERE DEW
POINTS WERE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER. A WARM FRONT JUST TO THE WEST OF
THIS INSTABILITY AXIS HELPED TO DRAW THE TSTMS STRAIGHT SOUTH.

SOME OF THE TSTMS HAVE BEEN SEVERE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS GOOCHLAND AND
POWHATAN COUNTIES. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND DIMINISH
INTO SHOWERS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FARTHER TO THE EAST...ONSHORE E/SE WINDS AND CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN MAINLY DRY. HAVE SLGT CHC SHOWERS IN THESE AREAS TOWARD
MORNING. NO SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY ISSUES ARE INDICATED BUT SOME
PATCHY FOG WILL BE PSBL...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND IN
AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN DURING THE EVENING. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT STALLS IN VICINITY OF THE COAST THURSDAY. OVERALL
FORCING FOR CONVECTION IS WEAK. HOWEVER...A 20% POP WILL BE
MAINTAINED FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. NW MID-LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY...WITH A WEAK IMPULSE PASSING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD BE ACROSS NRN
PORTIONS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE LOW. A MORE VIGOROUS
WAVE DROPS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE BEST CHC OF AND
GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
DURING THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD DUE TO STRONGER UPPER JET SUPPORT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND PUSHES S INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PUSH THE FRONT S OF THE AREA. AT THIS
TIME...POPS RANGE FORM SLIGHT CHC OVER NE PORTIONS TO CHC ACROSS
S/SW PORTIONS.

HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...BEFORE DROPPING BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 80S
(POSSIBLY UPPER 70S FAR NE) SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS SHOULD
MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DECREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP AND NEAR SEASONABLE...LATE SUMMER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST.

UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE CNTRL CONUS AND LOW PRESSURE/TROUGHING OFF THE NE COAST. FLOW
REMAINS BLOCKED OVER ERN CANADA AND THE NERN US...RESULTING IN
LITTLE PROGRESSION OF THE CNTRL CONUS RIDGE THRU THE PERIOD. THE
RESULT WILL BE ONGOING NWLY FLOW INTO THE EARLY PERIOD. BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL PUSH WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA SUN AS THE TROUGH
AMPLIFIES ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
SLIGHTLY WETTER SUN AFTER PREVIOUSLY BRINGING IN DRIER AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE STATES WILL RIDGE SWD OVER
THE LOCAL AREA IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH SUBSIDENCE INDICATED IN
MODEL SOUNDINGS. MOISTURE ALSO LOOKS TO BE ON THE DOWNTREND AS MODEL
DERIVED PWATS DROP BELOW 1.5 INCHES. WITH THAT SAID...SUN MAY END UP
BEING DRY...BUT WILL RETAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE PIEDMONT AND
COASTAL AREAS AS DISTURBANCES IN NWLY FLOW AND MODEL UNCERTAINTY
DECREASE CONFIDENCE. BETTER CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS HEADING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE CNTRL CONUS HIGH BEGINS TO NUDGE IN FROM
THE WEST AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WINS OUT. BEST MOISTURE ALSO GETS
SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. TREND CONTINUES INTO TUES AND WEDS AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD AND DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WIN OUT.

ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELD DAYTIME TEMPS GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THRU TUES (-1 STD DEV FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR). RETURN FLOW ON WEDS AND WARMING THICKNESSES PUSH TEMPS BACK
INTO THE MID 80S. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S THRU THE PERIOD
AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOW-MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
ACROSS WESTERN VIRGINIA TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THIS FRONT
SHOULD MOVE ONLY SLOWLY TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT AND STALL TOWARD THE
COAST ON THURSDAY.

LINE OF TSTMS NW OF RIC WILL MOVE SOUTH ALONG A THETA E RIDGE AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS MAY WEAKEN INTO A CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. RIC APPEARS TO BE ON THE
ERN FRINGE OF THE ACTIVITY AND HAVE TEMPO SHOWERS FROM 02 TO 04Z.

MVFR CONDS EXPECTED AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES DUE TO LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS. WITH VERY LITTLE IFR HAVING OCCURRED
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WITH A WIDER T/TD SPREAD THAN 24 HOURS AGO...
CONFIDENCE IN IFR IS RATHER LOW.

MAINLY VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THURSDAY BEYOND 14Z. SCT TSTMS CAN BE
EXPECTED MAINLY LATE IN THE DAY OR DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...SCT MAINLY AFTN AND EVENING TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER INDICATED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A FEW
HOURS OF MVFR/IFR CAN BE EXPECTED AROUND SUNRISE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTH
HAS RESULTED IN ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. SPEEDS
AVG AROUND 10 KT WITH SEAS GENERALLY 3 FT AND WAVES 2 FT. WARM FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE WATERS TONIGHT FROM THE WEST AS THE RIDGE AXIS AND
SFC LOW PUSH FARTHER OUT TO SEA. THIS WILL VEER THE FLOW AROUND TO
THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT...AVG 10 KT. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TO 2-3
FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS NEAR THE WATERS THURS
AS ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE WATERS THURS
NIGHT-FRI MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE STATES RIDGES SWD OVER
THE WATERS FRI NIGHT-SAT AS LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NC COAST.
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING NELY WINDS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT THRU SAT. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE NE COAST THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. ATTM...SPEEDS APPEAR TO REMAIN
SUB-SCA...BUT SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 4-5 FT LATE SAT THRU
MON.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LSA
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210245
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1045 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND STALLS NEAR
THE COAST THURSDAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A CLUSTER OF TSTMS DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTRAL VIRGINIA PIEDMONT
NORTH OF OUR CWA EARLY THIS EVENING. A NORTH TO SOUTH AXIS OF
INSTABILITY WAS IN PLACE WITH MORE STABLE AIR TO THE EAST WHERE DEW
POINTS WERE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER. A WARM FRONT JUST TO THE WEST OF
THIS INSTABILITY AXIS HELPED TO DRAW THE TSTMS STRAIGHT SOUTH.

SOME OF THE TSTMS HAVE BEEN SEVERE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS GOOCHLAND AND
POWHATAN COUNTIES. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND DIMINISH
INTO SHOWERS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FARTHER TO THE EAST...ONSHORE E/SE WINDS AND CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN MAINLY DRY. HAVE SLGT CHC SHOWERS IN THESE AREAS TOWARD
MORNING. NO SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY ISSUES ARE INDICATED BUT SOME
PATCHY FOG WILL BE PSBL...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND IN
AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN DURING THE EVENING. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT STALLS IN VICINITY OF THE COAST THURSDAY. OVERALL
FORCING FOR CONVECTION IS WEAK. HOWEVER...A 20% POP WILL BE
MAINTAINED FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. NW MID-LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY...WITH A WEAK IMPULSE PASSING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD BE ACROSS NRN
PORTIONS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE LOW. A MORE VIGOROUS
WAVE DROPS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE BEST CHC OF AND
GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
DURING THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD DUE TO STRONGER UPPER JET SUPPORT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND PUSHES S INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PUSH THE FRONT S OF THE AREA. AT THIS
TIME...POPS RANGE FORM SLIGHT CHC OVER NE PORTIONS TO CHC ACROSS
S/SW PORTIONS.

HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...BEFORE DROPPING BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 80S
(POSSIBLY UPPER 70S FAR NE) SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS SHOULD
MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DECREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP AND NEAR SEASONABLE...LATE SUMMER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST.

UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE CNTRL CONUS AND LOW PRESSURE/TROUGHING OFF THE NE COAST. FLOW
REMAINS BLOCKED OVER ERN CANADA AND THE NERN US...RESULTING IN
LITTLE PROGRESSION OF THE CNTRL CONUS RIDGE THRU THE PERIOD. THE
RESULT WILL BE ONGOING NWLY FLOW INTO THE EARLY PERIOD. BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL PUSH WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA SUN AS THE TROUGH
AMPLIFIES ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
SLIGHTLY WETTER SUN AFTER PREVIOUSLY BRINGING IN DRIER AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE STATES WILL RIDGE SWD OVER
THE LOCAL AREA IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH SUBSIDENCE INDICATED IN
MODEL SOUNDINGS. MOISTURE ALSO LOOKS TO BE ON THE DOWNTREND AS MODEL
DERIVED PWATS DROP BELOW 1.5 INCHES. WITH THAT SAID...SUN MAY END UP
BEING DRY...BUT WILL RETAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE PIEDMONT AND
COASTAL AREAS AS DISTURBANCES IN NWLY FLOW AND MODEL UNCERTAINTY
DECREASE CONFIDENCE. BETTER CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS HEADING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE CNTRL CONUS HIGH BEGINS TO NUDGE IN FROM
THE WEST AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WINS OUT. BEST MOISTURE ALSO GETS
SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. TREND CONTINUES INTO TUES AND WEDS AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD AND DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WIN OUT.

ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELD DAYTIME TEMPS GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THRU TUES (-1 STD DEV FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR). RETURN FLOW ON WEDS AND WARMING THICKNESSES PUSH TEMPS BACK
INTO THE MID 80S. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S THRU THE PERIOD
AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOW-MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
ACROSS WESTERN VIRGINIA TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THIS FRONT
SHOULD MOVE ONLY SLOWLY TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT AND STALL TOWARD THE
COAST ON THURSDAY.

LINE OF TSTMS NW OF RIC WILL MOVE SOUTH ALONG A THETA E RIDGE AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS MAY WEAKEN INTO A CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. RIC APPEARS TO BE ON THE
ERN FRINGE OF THE ACTIVITY AND HAVE TEMPO SHOWERS FROM 02 TO 04Z.

MVFR CONDS EXPECTED AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES DUE TO LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS. WITH VERY LITTLE IFR HAVING OCCURRED
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WITH A WIDER T/TD SPREAD THAN 24 HOURS AGO...
CONFIDENCE IN IFR IS RATHER LOW.

MAINLY VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THURSDAY BEYOND 14Z. SCT TSTMS CAN BE
EXPECTED MAINLY LATE IN THE DAY OR DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...SCT MAINLY AFTN AND EVENING TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER INDICATED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A FEW
HOURS OF MVFR/IFR CAN BE EXPECTED AROUND SUNRISE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTH
HAS RESULTED IN ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. SPEEDS
AVG AROUND 10 KT WITH SEAS GENERALLY 3 FT AND WAVES 2 FT. WARM FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE WATERS TONIGHT FROM THE WEST AS THE RIDGE AXIS AND
SFC LOW PUSH FARTHER OUT TO SEA. THIS WILL VEER THE FLOW AROUND TO
THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT...AVG 10 KT. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TO 2-3
FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS NEAR THE WATERS THURS
AS ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE WATERS THURS
NIGHT-FRI MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE STATES RIDGES SWD OVER
THE WATERS FRI NIGHT-SAT AS LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NC COAST.
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING NELY WINDS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT THRU SAT. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE NE COAST THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. ATTM...SPEEDS APPEAR TO REMAIN
SUB-SCA...BUT SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 4-5 FT LATE SAT THRU
MON.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LSA
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM






000
FXUS61 KLWX 210127
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
927 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE DEEP SOUTH THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
AND LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
AND SPREAD SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN PERSIST OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH FROM
CHARLOTTESVILLE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING.

AN UPR RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE ERN CONUS WITH THE
AXIS STALLING OVER THE MS RIVER THURSDAY. A NWLY JET FROM THIS
AXIS WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC...PUTTING THE
CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC IN THE PREFERRED RIGHT EXIT REGION. THIS WILL
AID LIFT AND BULK SHEAR TOMORROW. REMNANT BOUNDARIES FROM THE
ACTIVITY TONIGHT COULD FACTOR INTO WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
INITIATE/FAVOR. FURTHER MORE...ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STORMS FROM
THE MIDWEST WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA. MLCAPE LOOKS
LIMITED TO AROUND 1000 J/KG DUE TO WEAK LAPSE RATES...BUT THAT IS
SIMILAR TO TODAY...SO IT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ACTIVITY. EXPECT
MORE ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DAMAGING WIND. PWATS
ARE EXPECTED TO RISE NEAR 2 INCHES THURSDAY PRODUCING A THREAT FOR
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. MAX TEMPS MID TO UPR 80S AGAIN WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 60S FOR HEAT INDEX NEAR 90F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY AS A 250MB JET SITS NEAR THE REGION AND
DISTURBANCES APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING DISTURBANCES MAY LEAD TO CLEARING FRIDAY AND THEREFORE
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY INCREASE. AT THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE IS LOW
ON THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FCST MAX TEMPS WILL
REACH THE LOW 80S ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FOCUSED IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS
WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY...PROVIDING ONE FINAL PERIOD OF
ENHANCED RAINFALL AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AT THE
SURFACE. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN US FOR
WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN US
RIDGES DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS RIDGING COMBINED WITH
EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF A COASTAL LOW OFF OF CAPE
HATTERAS WILL BRING ONSHORE FLOW FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC MIDDAY
SATURDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WORKWEEK. THE MARINE LAYER
THAT WILL FILL IN WILL BRING SEASONABLY COOL AND MOIST AIR...LEADING
TO A LOW CLOUD DECK THAT WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
LIKELY INTO MONDAY EVENING...PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
CHANCE POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE WHERE THERE WILL BE AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE MOIST EASTERLY
FLOW.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MIGRATE OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY
NIGHT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO FILL IN LOCALLY. THIS WILL
SIGNAL AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS WILL GO FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 70S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY TO NEAR 80 TUESDAY AND MID 80S
WEDNESDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION FEATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHRA AND TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH FROM CHARLOTTESVILLE
THIS EVENING. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP MOISTURE IN THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AND PATCHY IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE AT MRB AND CHO.
MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE AT IAD. MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR
BWI-MTN BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

SHRA AND TSRA POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO FRIDAY AND MAY
CAUSE MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS.

PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AS A MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MARINE AIRMASS SETTLES INTO
THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS
GUSTED TO AROUND 20 KT ON MAIN PORTIONS OF THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MOVED THROUGH THE AREA. ANOTHER
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT IN BREEZY EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF A
COASTAL LOW OFF OF THE NORTH CAROLINA FLOW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY. SLY FLOW HAS
INCREASED THIS EVENING...WHICH SHOULD KEEP WATER LEVELS AT LEAST
THREE QUARTERS OF A FOOT AT ANNAPOLIS AND CAUSE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING AT THAT SENSITIVE SITE. THE GAUGE STOPPED REPORTING THIS
AFTERNOON...AND IT IS NOT KNOWN WHEN DATA WILL BE RESTORED. HIGH
TIDE IS AT 3:21AM AT THE NAVAL ACADEMY. WATER LEVELS WILL BE
ELEVATED ELSEWHERE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC
FOR POTENTIALLY MEETING THE MINOR THRESHOLD AT THE SOUTHWEST
WATERFRONT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/HAS
NEAR TERM...BAJ/HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...BAJ/HAS/CEB
MARINE...BAJ/HAS/CEB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BAJ








000
FXUS61 KLWX 210127
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
927 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE DEEP SOUTH THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
AND LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
AND SPREAD SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN PERSIST OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH FROM
CHARLOTTESVILLE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING.

AN UPR RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE ERN CONUS WITH THE
AXIS STALLING OVER THE MS RIVER THURSDAY. A NWLY JET FROM THIS
AXIS WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC...PUTTING THE
CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC IN THE PREFERRED RIGHT EXIT REGION. THIS WILL
AID LIFT AND BULK SHEAR TOMORROW. REMNANT BOUNDARIES FROM THE
ACTIVITY TONIGHT COULD FACTOR INTO WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
INITIATE/FAVOR. FURTHER MORE...ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STORMS FROM
THE MIDWEST WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA. MLCAPE LOOKS
LIMITED TO AROUND 1000 J/KG DUE TO WEAK LAPSE RATES...BUT THAT IS
SIMILAR TO TODAY...SO IT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ACTIVITY. EXPECT
MORE ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DAMAGING WIND. PWATS
ARE EXPECTED TO RISE NEAR 2 INCHES THURSDAY PRODUCING A THREAT FOR
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. MAX TEMPS MID TO UPR 80S AGAIN WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 60S FOR HEAT INDEX NEAR 90F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY AS A 250MB JET SITS NEAR THE REGION AND
DISTURBANCES APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING DISTURBANCES MAY LEAD TO CLEARING FRIDAY AND THEREFORE
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY INCREASE. AT THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE IS LOW
ON THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FCST MAX TEMPS WILL
REACH THE LOW 80S ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FOCUSED IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS
WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY...PROVIDING ONE FINAL PERIOD OF
ENHANCED RAINFALL AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AT THE
SURFACE. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN US FOR
WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN US
RIDGES DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS RIDGING COMBINED WITH
EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF A COASTAL LOW OFF OF CAPE
HATTERAS WILL BRING ONSHORE FLOW FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC MIDDAY
SATURDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WORKWEEK. THE MARINE LAYER
THAT WILL FILL IN WILL BRING SEASONABLY COOL AND MOIST AIR...LEADING
TO A LOW CLOUD DECK THAT WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
LIKELY INTO MONDAY EVENING...PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
CHANCE POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE WHERE THERE WILL BE AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE MOIST EASTERLY
FLOW.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MIGRATE OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY
NIGHT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO FILL IN LOCALLY. THIS WILL
SIGNAL AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS WILL GO FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 70S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY TO NEAR 80 TUESDAY AND MID 80S
WEDNESDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION FEATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHRA AND TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH FROM CHARLOTTESVILLE
THIS EVENING. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP MOISTURE IN THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AND PATCHY IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE AT MRB AND CHO.
MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE AT IAD. MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR
BWI-MTN BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

SHRA AND TSRA POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO FRIDAY AND MAY
CAUSE MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS.

PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AS A MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MARINE AIRMASS SETTLES INTO
THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS
GUSTED TO AROUND 20 KT ON MAIN PORTIONS OF THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MOVED THROUGH THE AREA. ANOTHER
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT IN BREEZY EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF A
COASTAL LOW OFF OF THE NORTH CAROLINA FLOW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY. SLY FLOW HAS
INCREASED THIS EVENING...WHICH SHOULD KEEP WATER LEVELS AT LEAST
THREE QUARTERS OF A FOOT AT ANNAPOLIS AND CAUSE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING AT THAT SENSITIVE SITE. THE GAUGE STOPPED REPORTING THIS
AFTERNOON...AND IT IS NOT KNOWN WHEN DATA WILL BE RESTORED. HIGH
TIDE IS AT 3:21AM AT THE NAVAL ACADEMY. WATER LEVELS WILL BE
ELEVATED ELSEWHERE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC
FOR POTENTIALLY MEETING THE MINOR THRESHOLD AT THE SOUTHWEST
WATERFRONT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/HAS
NEAR TERM...BAJ/HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...BAJ/HAS/CEB
MARINE...BAJ/HAS/CEB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BAJ









000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210039
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
839 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND STALLS NEAR
THE COAST THURSDAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A BROAD ~1010MB LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING S THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. GOES WV IMAGERY INDICATES A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING S FROM THE MAIN MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES IN VICINITY OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. ISO-SCT CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS...WITH THE MOST ORGANIZED
ACTIVITY N OF THE LOCAL AREA FROM NRN VA INTO S-CENTRAL PA. THE WARM
FRONT AND MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY TRACK W-E ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A 20-30% POP WILL BE INCLUDED TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A WARM HUMID NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS IS POSSIBLE LATE GIVEN
ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT S FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT STALLS IN VICINITY OF THE COAST THURSDAY. OVERALL
FORCING FOR CONVECTION IS WEAK. HOWEVER...A 20% POP WILL BE
MAINTAINED FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. NW MID-LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY...WITH A WEAK IMPULSE PASSING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD BE ACROSS NRN
PORTIONS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE LOW. A MORE VIGOROUS
WAVE DROPS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE BEST CHC OF AND
GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
DURING THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD DUE TO STRONGER UPPER JET SUPPORT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND PUSHES S INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PUSH THE FRONT S OF THE AREA. AT THIS
TIME...POPS RANGE FORM SLIGHT CHC OVER NE PORTIONS TO CHC ACROSS
S/SW PORTIONS.

HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...BEFORE DROPPING BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 80S
(POSSIBLY UPPER 70S FAR NE) SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS SHOULD
MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DECREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP AND NEAR SEASONABLE...LATE SUMMER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST.

UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE CNTRL CONUS AND LOW PRESSURE/TROUGHING OFF THE NE COAST. FLOW
REMAINS BLOCKED OVER ERN CANADA AND THE NERN US...RESULTING IN
LITTLE PROGRESSION OF THE CNTRL CONUS RIDGE THRU THE PERIOD. THE
RESULT WILL BE ONGOING NWLY FLOW INTO THE EARLY PERIOD. BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL PUSH WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA SUN AS THE TROUGH
AMPLIFIES ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
SLIGHTLY WETTER SUN AFTER PREVIOUSLY BRINGING IN DRIER AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE STATES WILL RIDGE SWD OVER
THE LOCAL AREA IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH SUBSIDENCE INDICATED IN
MODEL SOUNDINGS. MOISTURE ALSO LOOKS TO BE ON THE DOWNTREND AS MODEL
DERIVED PWATS DROP BELOW 1.5 INCHES. WITH THAT SAID...SUN MAY END UP
BEING DRY...BUT WILL RETAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE PIEDMONT AND
COASTAL AREAS AS DISTURBANCES IN NWLY FLOW AND MODEL UNCERTAINTY
DECREASE CONFIDENCE. BETTER CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS HEADING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE CNTRL CONUS HIGH BEGINS TO NUDGE IN FROM
THE WEST AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WINS OUT. BEST MOISTURE ALSO GETS
SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. TREND CONTINUES INTO TUES AND WEDS AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD AND DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WIN OUT.

ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELD DAYTIME TEMPS GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THRU TUES (-1 STD DEV FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR). RETURN FLOW ON WEDS AND WARMING THICKNESSES PUSH TEMPS BACK
INTO THE MID 80S. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S THRU THE PERIOD
AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOW-MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
ACROSS WESTERN VIRGINIA TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THIS FRONT
SHOULD MOVE ONLY SLOWLY TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT AND STALL TOWARD THE
COAST ON THURSDAY.

LINE OF TSTMS NW OF RIC WILL MOVE SOUTH ALONG A THETA E RIDGE AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS MAY WEAKEN INTO A CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. RIC APPEARS TO BE ON THE
ERN FRINGE OF THE ACTIVITY AND HAVE TEMPO SHOWERS FROM 02 TO 04Z.

MVFR CONDS EXPECTED AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES DUE TO LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS. WITH VERY LITTLE IFR HAVING OCCURRED
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WITH A WIDER T/TD SPREAD THAN 24 HOURS AGO...
CONFIDENCE IN IFR IS RATHER LOW.

MAINLY VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THURSDAY BEYOND 14Z. SCT TSTMS CAN BE
EXPECTED MAINLY LATE IN THE DAY OR DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...SCT MAINLY AFTN AND EVENING TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER INDICATED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A FEW
HOURS OF MVFR/IFR CAN BE EXPECTED AROUND SUNRISE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTH
HAS RESULTED IN ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. SPEEDS
AVG AROUND 10 KT WITH SEAS GENERALLY 3 FT AND WAVES 2 FT. WARM FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE WATERS TONIGHT FROM THE WEST AS THE RIDGE AXIS AND
SFC LOW PUSH FARTHER OUT TO SEA. THIS WILL VEER THE FLOW AROUND TO
THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT...AVG 10 KT. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TO 2-3
FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS NEAR THE WATERS THURS
AS ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE WATERS THURS
NIGHT-FRI MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE STATES RIDGES SWD OVER
THE WATERS FRI NIGHT-SAT AS LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NC COAST.
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING NELY WINDS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT THRU SAT. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE NE COAST THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. ATTM...SPEEDS APPEAR TO REMAIN
SUB-SCA...BUT SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 4-5 FT LATE SAT THRU
MON.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210039
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
839 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND STALLS NEAR
THE COAST THURSDAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A BROAD ~1010MB LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING S THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. GOES WV IMAGERY INDICATES A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING S FROM THE MAIN MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES IN VICINITY OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. ISO-SCT CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS...WITH THE MOST ORGANIZED
ACTIVITY N OF THE LOCAL AREA FROM NRN VA INTO S-CENTRAL PA. THE WARM
FRONT AND MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY TRACK W-E ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A 20-30% POP WILL BE INCLUDED TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A WARM HUMID NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS IS POSSIBLE LATE GIVEN
ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT S FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT STALLS IN VICINITY OF THE COAST THURSDAY. OVERALL
FORCING FOR CONVECTION IS WEAK. HOWEVER...A 20% POP WILL BE
MAINTAINED FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. NW MID-LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY...WITH A WEAK IMPULSE PASSING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD BE ACROSS NRN
PORTIONS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE LOW. A MORE VIGOROUS
WAVE DROPS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE BEST CHC OF AND
GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
DURING THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD DUE TO STRONGER UPPER JET SUPPORT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND PUSHES S INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PUSH THE FRONT S OF THE AREA. AT THIS
TIME...POPS RANGE FORM SLIGHT CHC OVER NE PORTIONS TO CHC ACROSS
S/SW PORTIONS.

HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...BEFORE DROPPING BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 80S
(POSSIBLY UPPER 70S FAR NE) SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS SHOULD
MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DECREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP AND NEAR SEASONABLE...LATE SUMMER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST.

UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE CNTRL CONUS AND LOW PRESSURE/TROUGHING OFF THE NE COAST. FLOW
REMAINS BLOCKED OVER ERN CANADA AND THE NERN US...RESULTING IN
LITTLE PROGRESSION OF THE CNTRL CONUS RIDGE THRU THE PERIOD. THE
RESULT WILL BE ONGOING NWLY FLOW INTO THE EARLY PERIOD. BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL PUSH WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA SUN AS THE TROUGH
AMPLIFIES ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
SLIGHTLY WETTER SUN AFTER PREVIOUSLY BRINGING IN DRIER AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE STATES WILL RIDGE SWD OVER
THE LOCAL AREA IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH SUBSIDENCE INDICATED IN
MODEL SOUNDINGS. MOISTURE ALSO LOOKS TO BE ON THE DOWNTREND AS MODEL
DERIVED PWATS DROP BELOW 1.5 INCHES. WITH THAT SAID...SUN MAY END UP
BEING DRY...BUT WILL RETAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE PIEDMONT AND
COASTAL AREAS AS DISTURBANCES IN NWLY FLOW AND MODEL UNCERTAINTY
DECREASE CONFIDENCE. BETTER CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS HEADING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE CNTRL CONUS HIGH BEGINS TO NUDGE IN FROM
THE WEST AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WINS OUT. BEST MOISTURE ALSO GETS
SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. TREND CONTINUES INTO TUES AND WEDS AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD AND DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WIN OUT.

ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELD DAYTIME TEMPS GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THRU TUES (-1 STD DEV FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR). RETURN FLOW ON WEDS AND WARMING THICKNESSES PUSH TEMPS BACK
INTO THE MID 80S. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S THRU THE PERIOD
AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOW-MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
ACROSS WESTERN VIRGINIA TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THIS FRONT
SHOULD MOVE ONLY SLOWLY TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT AND STALL TOWARD THE
COAST ON THURSDAY.

LINE OF TSTMS NW OF RIC WILL MOVE SOUTH ALONG A THETA E RIDGE AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS MAY WEAKEN INTO A CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. RIC APPEARS TO BE ON THE
ERN FRINGE OF THE ACTIVITY AND HAVE TEMPO SHOWERS FROM 02 TO 04Z.

MVFR CONDS EXPECTED AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES DUE TO LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS. WITH VERY LITTLE IFR HAVING OCCURRED
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WITH A WIDER T/TD SPREAD THAN 24 HOURS AGO...
CONFIDENCE IN IFR IS RATHER LOW.

MAINLY VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THURSDAY BEYOND 14Z. SCT TSTMS CAN BE
EXPECTED MAINLY LATE IN THE DAY OR DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...SCT MAINLY AFTN AND EVENING TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER INDICATED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A FEW
HOURS OF MVFR/IFR CAN BE EXPECTED AROUND SUNRISE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTH
HAS RESULTED IN ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. SPEEDS
AVG AROUND 10 KT WITH SEAS GENERALLY 3 FT AND WAVES 2 FT. WARM FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE WATERS TONIGHT FROM THE WEST AS THE RIDGE AXIS AND
SFC LOW PUSH FARTHER OUT TO SEA. THIS WILL VEER THE FLOW AROUND TO
THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT...AVG 10 KT. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TO 2-3
FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS NEAR THE WATERS THURS
AS ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE WATERS THURS
NIGHT-FRI MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE STATES RIDGES SWD OVER
THE WATERS FRI NIGHT-SAT AS LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NC COAST.
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING NELY WINDS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT THRU SAT. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE NE COAST THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. ATTM...SPEEDS APPEAR TO REMAIN
SUB-SCA...BUT SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 4-5 FT LATE SAT THRU
MON.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM







000
FXUS61 KRNK 202350
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
750 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACKING EAST AND SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE BOUNDARY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
REGION EACH DAY. THE FRONT SHOULD SHIFT BACK SOUTH OF THE REGION
SATURDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 720 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

VERY QUIET OVER OUR CWA ATTM...JUST SPOTTY SHOWS NEAR THE BLUE
RIDGE AND EAST TO SMITH MTN LAKE. ALL THE ACTIVE WX IS OVER ERN
KY/TN AND NEAR CHARLOTTESVILLE.

FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO LOWER POPS TO MATCH RADAR TRENDS. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THE UPSTREAM STORMS OVER ERN KY...AND WILL SEE IF
THEY CONTINUE MARCHING SEWD TO SKIRT OUR FAR SW VA COUNTIES OF
TAZEWELL/SMYTH AND GRAYSON INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS. THERE IS A
WEAKENING TREND OVERALL...BUT STILL THINK AT LEAST SCATTERED
CONVECTION WORKS HERE THROUGH THE EVENING. THE ACTIVITY OVER
CHARLOTTESVILLE IS ALSO DRIFTING SE..AND MAY GRAZE BUCKINGHAM.
OUTFLOWS FROM THIS MAY ALSO INITIATE SOME CONVECTION BUT WE ARE
NOW ENTERING DUSK SO INSTABILITY WILL WEAKEN...ALTHOUGH EMBEDDED
UPPER SHORTWAVES MAY KEEP SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE NIGHT.

NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

EXPECT ANY ADDED COVERAGE TO FADE WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND IN THE
WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MORE
CLEARING AND PATCHY FOG ESPCLY LATE TONIGHT. LOW TEMPS AGAIN
SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW NIGHTS WITH MUGGY LOW/MID 60S WEST AND
65-70 EAST.

WEAK RESIDUAL FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NE ON THURSDAY AS THE WAVE CHANNEL
ALOFT AROUND THE RIDGE TO THE SW AMPLIFIES A BIT AND STARTS TO SHIFT
NORTH AS WELL. MODELS BRING ANOTHER IMPULSE QUICKLY SE OUT OF THE
UPSTREAM CONVEYER BELT AND DRIVE IT TOWARD THE NW COUNTIES
THURSDAY MORNING SIMILAR TO TODAY...PERHAPS JUST A BIT SLOWER.
HOWEVER LIFT WILL BE ENCOUNTERING DEEP NW FLOW SO UNCERTAIN AS TO
HOW FAR THIS COMPLEX MAY GET BEFORE FADING. THUS RUNNING WITH
INCREASING CHANCE POPS THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY BLUE RIDGE
WEST...WITH HIGHEST ACROSS SE WEST VA. EXPECT EARLY CONVECTION TO
AGAIN FADE CROSSING THE RIDGES AS WE SLIP IN BETWEEN WAVES BEFORE
BETTER INSTABILITY/OUTFLOW HELPS REDEVELOP AT LEAST SCATTERED
AFTERNOON COVERAGE MOUNTAINS...AND ISOLATED OUT EAST WHERE
DOWNSLOPE ALOFT WILL BE STRONGER. THEREFORE TRIMMED BACK POPS TO
MORE CHANCE NATURE GIVEN TRENDS OF LATE AND LACK OF MUCH LIFT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE NEXT WAVE IN OHIO. WARMING ALOFT AND
WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD COMBINE WITH SUNSHINE TO PUSH TEMPS ABOVE 90
SE WITH 80S MOST OTHER SPOTS PENDING EARLY CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST AREA STAYS IN BROAD NORTHWEST SYNOPTIC FLOW. PROBABILITY
OF PRECIPITATION WILL DEPEND ON WHEN SHORT WAVES COME THROUGH.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT CROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
DURING THE LATE NIGHT OR EARLY MORNING...OR UPSTREAM CLUSTERS OF
STORMS THAT SPREAD CLOUDS DOWNSTREAM OVER US WILL DIMINISH THE
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY.

MODELS HAVE AXIS OF BEST LIFT SHIFTING JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS MAY LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. BUT SURFACE BOUNDARY POSSIBLY MOVING SOUTH
THROUGH THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY MAY TRIGGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN HIGH
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LARGE RAINFALL RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY OF
THE STORMS.

EXPECTING MUGGY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING WELL
INTO THE 60S. 850 TEMPERATURES ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL BE COOLER THAN IN THE WEST. OVERALL PRECIPITATION AND
CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 500 MB
HEIGHTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEGIN TO RISE ON TUESDAY WITH THE
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND WEDGED DOWN THE
APPALACHIANS THROUGH TUESDAY. BY THURSDAY A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH WILL
BE IN PLACE.

CHALLENGING TO TIME SHORT WAVES COMING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE.
WPC WAS FAVORING A BLEND OF ENSEMBLE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS KEEPS FORECAST AREA IN A PERSISTENT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME WILL BE
EMPHASIZING SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST CHANCE IN THIS TIME FRAME.

WILL BE WARMING UP CLOSER TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 720 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THERE IS A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...
TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS EVENING. THERE IS ALSO ANOTHER
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA.
BOTH OF THESE STORMS ARE TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST. WE WILL NEED
TO WATCH THE STORMS TO THE WEST AS THEY MAY CLIP THE FORECAST AREA
FROM BLUEFIELD WV TO MOUNT AIRY NC EARLY. AT TAF TIME...THERE ARE
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. THESE SHOWERS WILL FADE WITH SUNSET. THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...PATCHY DENSE FOG MAY DEVELOP IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND
MORESO IN AREAS THAT SEE RAIN THIS EVENING.

FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY THURSDAY. IMPULSES TO THE
WEST WILL LIKELY BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION TOMORROW. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM ACTIVITY SURROUND THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING MAY ALSO GENERATE STORMS TOMORROW. THE
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS GOOD WHILE TIMING CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. FOR NOW...WILL ONLY CARRY VICINITY STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
FOR ALL SITES.

EXTENDED AVIATION...

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH PERIODICALLY AND
INTERACTING WITH A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO
THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR...EXPECT STRATUS AND FOG
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR MOST
PRONOUNCED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 9AM EACH DAY. MODELS ARE INDICATED
THAT A DEEPER EASTERLY SORT OF WIND FLOW WILL SETUP FOR THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS SUGGEST THAT LOW CIGS MAY PERSIST EVEN
DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD
MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND DUE TO MOISTURE
BANKING UP AGAINST THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...MBS/RCS



000
FXUS61 KRNK 202350
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
750 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACKING EAST AND SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE BOUNDARY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
REGION EACH DAY. THE FRONT SHOULD SHIFT BACK SOUTH OF THE REGION
SATURDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 720 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

VERY QUIET OVER OUR CWA ATTM...JUST SPOTTY SHOWS NEAR THE BLUE
RIDGE AND EAST TO SMITH MTN LAKE. ALL THE ACTIVE WX IS OVER ERN
KY/TN AND NEAR CHARLOTTESVILLE.

FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO LOWER POPS TO MATCH RADAR TRENDS. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THE UPSTREAM STORMS OVER ERN KY...AND WILL SEE IF
THEY CONTINUE MARCHING SEWD TO SKIRT OUR FAR SW VA COUNTIES OF
TAZEWELL/SMYTH AND GRAYSON INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS. THERE IS A
WEAKENING TREND OVERALL...BUT STILL THINK AT LEAST SCATTERED
CONVECTION WORKS HERE THROUGH THE EVENING. THE ACTIVITY OVER
CHARLOTTESVILLE IS ALSO DRIFTING SE..AND MAY GRAZE BUCKINGHAM.
OUTFLOWS FROM THIS MAY ALSO INITIATE SOME CONVECTION BUT WE ARE
NOW ENTERING DUSK SO INSTABILITY WILL WEAKEN...ALTHOUGH EMBEDDED
UPPER SHORTWAVES MAY KEEP SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE NIGHT.

NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

EXPECT ANY ADDED COVERAGE TO FADE WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND IN THE
WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MORE
CLEARING AND PATCHY FOG ESPCLY LATE TONIGHT. LOW TEMPS AGAIN
SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW NIGHTS WITH MUGGY LOW/MID 60S WEST AND
65-70 EAST.

WEAK RESIDUAL FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NE ON THURSDAY AS THE WAVE CHANNEL
ALOFT AROUND THE RIDGE TO THE SW AMPLIFIES A BIT AND STARTS TO SHIFT
NORTH AS WELL. MODELS BRING ANOTHER IMPULSE QUICKLY SE OUT OF THE
UPSTREAM CONVEYER BELT AND DRIVE IT TOWARD THE NW COUNTIES
THURSDAY MORNING SIMILAR TO TODAY...PERHAPS JUST A BIT SLOWER.
HOWEVER LIFT WILL BE ENCOUNTERING DEEP NW FLOW SO UNCERTAIN AS TO
HOW FAR THIS COMPLEX MAY GET BEFORE FADING. THUS RUNNING WITH
INCREASING CHANCE POPS THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY BLUE RIDGE
WEST...WITH HIGHEST ACROSS SE WEST VA. EXPECT EARLY CONVECTION TO
AGAIN FADE CROSSING THE RIDGES AS WE SLIP IN BETWEEN WAVES BEFORE
BETTER INSTABILITY/OUTFLOW HELPS REDEVELOP AT LEAST SCATTERED
AFTERNOON COVERAGE MOUNTAINS...AND ISOLATED OUT EAST WHERE
DOWNSLOPE ALOFT WILL BE STRONGER. THEREFORE TRIMMED BACK POPS TO
MORE CHANCE NATURE GIVEN TRENDS OF LATE AND LACK OF MUCH LIFT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE NEXT WAVE IN OHIO. WARMING ALOFT AND
WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD COMBINE WITH SUNSHINE TO PUSH TEMPS ABOVE 90
SE WITH 80S MOST OTHER SPOTS PENDING EARLY CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST AREA STAYS IN BROAD NORTHWEST SYNOPTIC FLOW. PROBABILITY
OF PRECIPITATION WILL DEPEND ON WHEN SHORT WAVES COME THROUGH.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT CROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
DURING THE LATE NIGHT OR EARLY MORNING...OR UPSTREAM CLUSTERS OF
STORMS THAT SPREAD CLOUDS DOWNSTREAM OVER US WILL DIMINISH THE
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY.

MODELS HAVE AXIS OF BEST LIFT SHIFTING JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS MAY LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. BUT SURFACE BOUNDARY POSSIBLY MOVING SOUTH
THROUGH THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY MAY TRIGGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN HIGH
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LARGE RAINFALL RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY OF
THE STORMS.

EXPECTING MUGGY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING WELL
INTO THE 60S. 850 TEMPERATURES ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL BE COOLER THAN IN THE WEST. OVERALL PRECIPITATION AND
CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 500 MB
HEIGHTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEGIN TO RISE ON TUESDAY WITH THE
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND WEDGED DOWN THE
APPALACHIANS THROUGH TUESDAY. BY THURSDAY A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH WILL
BE IN PLACE.

CHALLENGING TO TIME SHORT WAVES COMING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE.
WPC WAS FAVORING A BLEND OF ENSEMBLE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS KEEPS FORECAST AREA IN A PERSISTENT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME WILL BE
EMPHASIZING SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST CHANCE IN THIS TIME FRAME.

WILL BE WARMING UP CLOSER TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 720 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THERE IS A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...
TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS EVENING. THERE IS ALSO ANOTHER
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA.
BOTH OF THESE STORMS ARE TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST. WE WILL NEED
TO WATCH THE STORMS TO THE WEST AS THEY MAY CLIP THE FORECAST AREA
FROM BLUEFIELD WV TO MOUNT AIRY NC EARLY. AT TAF TIME...THERE ARE
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. THESE SHOWERS WILL FADE WITH SUNSET. THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...PATCHY DENSE FOG MAY DEVELOP IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND
MORESO IN AREAS THAT SEE RAIN THIS EVENING.

FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY THURSDAY. IMPULSES TO THE
WEST WILL LIKELY BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION TOMORROW. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM ACTIVITY SURROUND THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING MAY ALSO GENERATE STORMS TOMORROW. THE
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS GOOD WHILE TIMING CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. FOR NOW...WILL ONLY CARRY VICINITY STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
FOR ALL SITES.

EXTENDED AVIATION...

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH PERIODICALLY AND
INTERACTING WITH A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO
THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR...EXPECT STRATUS AND FOG
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR MOST
PRONOUNCED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 9AM EACH DAY. MODELS ARE INDICATED
THAT A DEEPER EASTERLY SORT OF WIND FLOW WILL SETUP FOR THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS SUGGEST THAT LOW CIGS MAY PERSIST EVEN
DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD
MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND DUE TO MOISTURE
BANKING UP AGAINST THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...MBS/RCS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 202322
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
722 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACKING EAST AND SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE BOUNDARY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
REGION EACH DAY. THE FRONT SHOULD SHIFT BACK SOUTH OF THE REGION
SATURDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

EARLIER CONVECTIVE BANDS FROM THIS MORNING HAVE BASICALLY PUT A LID ON
MOST ADDED SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN DEEP WESTERLY FLOW SEEN OFF
THE VWP...AND LACK OF CU OFF VISIBLE PICS PER BUBBLE OF WEAK
SUBSIDENCE. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT WORKING IN
FROM THE WEST...BEHIND THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING EAST OF THE
RIDGES...MAKES COVERAGE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING IFFY. HOWEVER SINCE
STILL HAVE INCREASING INSTABILITY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND
TENDENCY FOR BETTER CONVERGENCE AFTER MIXING DECREASES...WILL LEAVE IN
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN ALL EXCEPT THE FAR NW PORTIONS EARLY ON.

APPEARS BEST CHANCE AT SEEING MORE COVERAGE WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE AND OVER THE NORTH WHERE WILL BE RIGHT ALONG THE PASSING
VORTICITY AXIS. MAY ALSO HAVE ISOLATED TSRA REDEVELOP WEST OF THE CWA
WHERE HAVE SEEN BETTER MOISTURE/THETA-E AND HEATING ON THE OTHER SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY. THUS KEEPING IN A TSRA MENTION INTO THE EVENING OVER
THE SW. OTRW EXPECT ANY ADDED COVERAGE TO FADE WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND
IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MORE
CLEARING AND PATCHY FOG ESPCLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPS AGAIN SIMILAR
TO THE LAST FEW NIGHTS WITH MUGGY LOW/MID 60S WEST AND 65-70 EAST.

WEAK RESIDUAL FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NE ON THURSDAY AS THE WAVE CHANNEL
ALOFT AROUND THE RIDGE TO THE SW AMPLIFIES A BIT AND STARTS TO SHIFT
NORTH AS WELL. MODELS BRING ANOTHER IMPULSE QUICKLY SE OUT OF THE
UPSTREAM CONVEYOR BELT AND DRIVE IT TOWARD THE NW COUNTIES THURSDAY
MORNING SIMILAR TO TODAY...PERHAPS JUST A BIT SLOWER. HOWEVER LIFT WILL
BE ENCOUNTERING DEEP NW FLOW SO UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW FAR THIS COMPLEX
MAY GET BEFORE FADING. THUS RUNNING WITH INCREASING CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY BLUE RIDGE WEST...WITH HIGHEST ACROSS SE WEST
VA. EXPECT EARLY CONVECTION TO AGAIN FADE CROSSING THE RIDGES AS WE
SLIP IN BETWEEN WAVES BEFORE BETTER INSTABILITY/OUTFLOW HELPS REDEVELOP
AT LEAST SCATTERED AFTERNOON COVERAGE MOUNTAINS...AND ISOLATED OUT EAST
WHERE DOWNSLOPE ALOFT WILL BE STRONGER. THEREFORE TRIMMED BACK POPS TO
MORE CHANCE NATURE GIVEN TRENDS OF LATE AND LACK OF MUCH LIFT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE NEXT WAVE IN OHIO. WARMING ALOFT AND WESTERLY WINDS
SHOULD COMBINE WITH SUNSHINE TO PUSH TEMPS ABOVE 90 SE WITH 80S MOST
OTHER SPOTS PENDING EARLY CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST AREA STAYS IN BROAD NORTHWEST SYNOPTIC FLOW. PROBABILITY
OF PRECIPITATION WILL DEPEND ON WHEN SHORT WAVES COME THROUGH.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT CROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
DURING THE LATE NIGHT OR EARLY MORNING...OR UPSTREAM CLUSTERS OF
STORMS THAT SPREAD CLOUDS DOWNSTREAM OVER US WILL DIMINISH THE
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY.

MODELS HAVE AXIS OF BEST LIFT SHIFTING JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS MAY LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. BUT SURFACE BOUNDARY POSSIBLY MOVING SOUTH
THROUGH THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY MAY TRIGGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN HIGH
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LARGE RAINFALL RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY OF
THE STORMS.

EXPECTING MUGGY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING WELL
INTO THE 60S. 850 TEMPERATURES ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL BE COOLER THAN IN THE WEST. OVERALL PRECIPITATION AND
CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 500 MB
HEIGHTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEGIN TO RISE ON TUESDAY WITH THE
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND WEDGED DOWN THE
APPALACHIANS THROUGH TUESDAY. BY THURSDAY A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH WILL
BE IN PLACE.

CHALLENGING TO TIME SHORT WAVES COMING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE.
WPC WAS FAVORING A BLEND OF ENSEMBLE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS KEEPS FORECAST AREA IN A PERSISTENT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME WILL BE
EMPHASIZING SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST CHANCE IN THIS TIME FRAME.

WILL BE WARMING UP CLOSER TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 720 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THERE IS A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...
TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS EVENING. THERE IS ALSO ANOTHER
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA.
BOTH OF THESE STORMS ARE TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST. WE WILL NEED
TO WATCH THE STORMS TO THE WEST AS THEY MAY CLIP THE FORECAST AREA
FROM BLUEFIELD WV TO MOUNT AIRY NC EARLY. AT TAF TIME...THERE ARE
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. THESE SHOWERS WILL FADE WITH SUNSET. THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...PATCHY DENSE FOG MAY DEVELOP IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND
MORESO IN AREAS THAT SEE RAIN THIS EVENING.

FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY THURSDAY. IMPULSES TO THE
WEST WILL LIKELY BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION TOMORROW. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM ACTIVITY SURROUND THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING MAY ALSO GENERATE STORMS TOMORROW. THE
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS GOOD WHILE TIMING CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. FOR NOW...WILL ONLY CARRY VICINITY STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
FOR ALL SITES.

EXTENDED AVIATION...

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH PERIODICALLY AND
INTERACTING WITH A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO
THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR...EXPECT STRATUS AND FOG
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR MOST
PRONOUNCED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 9AM EACH DAY. MODELS ARE INDICATED
THAT A DEEPER EASTERLY SORT OF WIND FLOW WILL SETUP FOR THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS SUGGEST THAT LOW CIGS MAY PERSIST EVEN
DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD
MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND DUE TO MOISTURE
BANKING UP AGAINST THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...MBS/RCS



000
FXUS61 KRNK 202322
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
722 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACKING EAST AND SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE BOUNDARY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
REGION EACH DAY. THE FRONT SHOULD SHIFT BACK SOUTH OF THE REGION
SATURDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

EARLIER CONVECTIVE BANDS FROM THIS MORNING HAVE BASICALLY PUT A LID ON
MOST ADDED SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN DEEP WESTERLY FLOW SEEN OFF
THE VWP...AND LACK OF CU OFF VISIBLE PICS PER BUBBLE OF WEAK
SUBSIDENCE. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT WORKING IN
FROM THE WEST...BEHIND THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING EAST OF THE
RIDGES...MAKES COVERAGE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING IFFY. HOWEVER SINCE
STILL HAVE INCREASING INSTABILITY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND
TENDENCY FOR BETTER CONVERGENCE AFTER MIXING DECREASES...WILL LEAVE IN
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN ALL EXCEPT THE FAR NW PORTIONS EARLY ON.

APPEARS BEST CHANCE AT SEEING MORE COVERAGE WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE AND OVER THE NORTH WHERE WILL BE RIGHT ALONG THE PASSING
VORTICITY AXIS. MAY ALSO HAVE ISOLATED TSRA REDEVELOP WEST OF THE CWA
WHERE HAVE SEEN BETTER MOISTURE/THETA-E AND HEATING ON THE OTHER SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY. THUS KEEPING IN A TSRA MENTION INTO THE EVENING OVER
THE SW. OTRW EXPECT ANY ADDED COVERAGE TO FADE WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND
IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MORE
CLEARING AND PATCHY FOG ESPCLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPS AGAIN SIMILAR
TO THE LAST FEW NIGHTS WITH MUGGY LOW/MID 60S WEST AND 65-70 EAST.

WEAK RESIDUAL FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NE ON THURSDAY AS THE WAVE CHANNEL
ALOFT AROUND THE RIDGE TO THE SW AMPLIFIES A BIT AND STARTS TO SHIFT
NORTH AS WELL. MODELS BRING ANOTHER IMPULSE QUICKLY SE OUT OF THE
UPSTREAM CONVEYOR BELT AND DRIVE IT TOWARD THE NW COUNTIES THURSDAY
MORNING SIMILAR TO TODAY...PERHAPS JUST A BIT SLOWER. HOWEVER LIFT WILL
BE ENCOUNTERING DEEP NW FLOW SO UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW FAR THIS COMPLEX
MAY GET BEFORE FADING. THUS RUNNING WITH INCREASING CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY BLUE RIDGE WEST...WITH HIGHEST ACROSS SE WEST
VA. EXPECT EARLY CONVECTION TO AGAIN FADE CROSSING THE RIDGES AS WE
SLIP IN BETWEEN WAVES BEFORE BETTER INSTABILITY/OUTFLOW HELPS REDEVELOP
AT LEAST SCATTERED AFTERNOON COVERAGE MOUNTAINS...AND ISOLATED OUT EAST
WHERE DOWNSLOPE ALOFT WILL BE STRONGER. THEREFORE TRIMMED BACK POPS TO
MORE CHANCE NATURE GIVEN TRENDS OF LATE AND LACK OF MUCH LIFT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE NEXT WAVE IN OHIO. WARMING ALOFT AND WESTERLY WINDS
SHOULD COMBINE WITH SUNSHINE TO PUSH TEMPS ABOVE 90 SE WITH 80S MOST
OTHER SPOTS PENDING EARLY CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST AREA STAYS IN BROAD NORTHWEST SYNOPTIC FLOW. PROBABILITY
OF PRECIPITATION WILL DEPEND ON WHEN SHORT WAVES COME THROUGH.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT CROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
DURING THE LATE NIGHT OR EARLY MORNING...OR UPSTREAM CLUSTERS OF
STORMS THAT SPREAD CLOUDS DOWNSTREAM OVER US WILL DIMINISH THE
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY.

MODELS HAVE AXIS OF BEST LIFT SHIFTING JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS MAY LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. BUT SURFACE BOUNDARY POSSIBLY MOVING SOUTH
THROUGH THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY MAY TRIGGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN HIGH
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LARGE RAINFALL RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY OF
THE STORMS.

EXPECTING MUGGY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING WELL
INTO THE 60S. 850 TEMPERATURES ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL BE COOLER THAN IN THE WEST. OVERALL PRECIPITATION AND
CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 500 MB
HEIGHTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEGIN TO RISE ON TUESDAY WITH THE
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND WEDGED DOWN THE
APPALACHIANS THROUGH TUESDAY. BY THURSDAY A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH WILL
BE IN PLACE.

CHALLENGING TO TIME SHORT WAVES COMING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE.
WPC WAS FAVORING A BLEND OF ENSEMBLE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS KEEPS FORECAST AREA IN A PERSISTENT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME WILL BE
EMPHASIZING SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST CHANCE IN THIS TIME FRAME.

WILL BE WARMING UP CLOSER TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 720 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THERE IS A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...
TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS EVENING. THERE IS ALSO ANOTHER
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA.
BOTH OF THESE STORMS ARE TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST. WE WILL NEED
TO WATCH THE STORMS TO THE WEST AS THEY MAY CLIP THE FORECAST AREA
FROM BLUEFIELD WV TO MOUNT AIRY NC EARLY. AT TAF TIME...THERE ARE
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. THESE SHOWERS WILL FADE WITH SUNSET. THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...PATCHY DENSE FOG MAY DEVELOP IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND
MORESO IN AREAS THAT SEE RAIN THIS EVENING.

FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY THURSDAY. IMPULSES TO THE
WEST WILL LIKELY BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION TOMORROW. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM ACTIVITY SURROUND THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING MAY ALSO GENERATE STORMS TOMORROW. THE
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS GOOD WHILE TIMING CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. FOR NOW...WILL ONLY CARRY VICINITY STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
FOR ALL SITES.

EXTENDED AVIATION...

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH PERIODICALLY AND
INTERACTING WITH A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO
THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR...EXPECT STRATUS AND FOG
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR MOST
PRONOUNCED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 9AM EACH DAY. MODELS ARE INDICATED
THAT A DEEPER EASTERLY SORT OF WIND FLOW WILL SETUP FOR THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS SUGGEST THAT LOW CIGS MAY PERSIST EVEN
DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD
MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND DUE TO MOISTURE
BANKING UP AGAINST THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...MBS/RCS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 202004
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
404 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND STALLS NEAR
THE COAST THURSDAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A BROAD ~1010MB LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING S THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. GOES WV IMAGERY INDICATES A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING S FROM THE MAIN MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES IN VICINITY OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. ISO-SCT CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS...WITH THE MOST ORGANIZED
ACTIVITY N OF THE LOCAL AREA FROM NRN VA INTO S-CENTRAL PA. THE WARM
FRONT AND MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY TRACK W-E ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A 20-30% POP WILL BE INCLUDED TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A WARM HUMID NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS IS POSSIBLE LATE GIVEN
ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT S FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT STALLS IN VICINITY OF THE COAST THURSDAY. OVERALL
FORCING FOR CONVECTION IS WEAK. HOWEVER...A 20% POP WILL BE
MAINTAINED FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. NW MID-LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY...WITH A WEAK IMPULSE PASSING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD BE ACROSS NRN
PORTIONS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE LOW. A MORE VIGOROUS
WAVE DROPS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE BEST CHC OF AND
GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
DURING THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD DUE TO STRONGER UPPER JET SUPPORT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND PUSHES S INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PUSH THE FRONT S OF THE AREA. AT THIS
TIME...POPS RANGE FORM SLIGHT CHC OVER NE PORTIONS TO CHC ACROSS
S/SW PORTIONS.

HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...BEFORE DROPPING BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 80S
(POSSIBLY UPPER 70S FAR NE) SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS SHOULD
MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DECREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP AND NEAR SEASONABLE...LATE SUMMER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST.

UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE CNTRL CONUS AND LOW PRESSURE/TROUGHING OFF THE NE COAST. FLOW
REMAINS BLOCKED OVER ERN CANADA AND THE NERN US...RESULTING IN
LITTLE PROGRESSION OF THE CNTRL CONUS RIDGE THRU THE PERIOD. THE
RESULT WILL BE ONGOING NWLY FLOW INTO THE EARLY PERIOD. BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL PUSH WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA SUN AS THE TROUGH
AMPLIFIES ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
SLIGHTLY WETTER SUN AFTER PREVIOUSLY BRINGING IN DRIER AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE STATES WILL RIDGE SWD OVER
THE LOCAL AREA IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH SUBSIDENCE INDICATED IN
MODEL SOUNDINGS. MOISTURE ALSO LOOKS TO BE ON THE DOWNTREND AS MODEL
DERIVED PWATS DROP BELOW 1.5 INCHES. WITH THAT SAID...SUN MAY END UP
BEING DRY...BUT WILL RETAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE PIEDMONT AND
COASTAL AREAS AS DISTURBANCES IN NWLY FLOW AND MODEL UNCERTAINTY
DECREASE CONFIDENCE. BETTER CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS HEADING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE CNTRL CONUS HIGH BEGINS TO NUDGE IN FROM
THE WEST AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WINS OUT. BEST MOISTURE ALSO GETS
SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. TREND CONTINUES INTO TUES AND WEDS AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD AND DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WIN OUT.

ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELD DAYTIME TEMPS GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THRU TUES (-1 STD DEV FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR). RETURN FLOW ON WEDS AND WARMING THICKNESSES PUSH TEMPS BACK
INTO THE MID 80S. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S THRU THE PERIOD
AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOW-MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO AND ACRS THE REGION FM THE W
LATE THIS AFTN INTO THU. EXPECT MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS DURING
MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH ISLTD/SCTD PCPN POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTN INTO EARLY THU MORNG. ISLTD IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE TNGT
INTO EARLY THU MORNG...AS LIGHT ESE WINDS BECOME LIGHT SSW. LWR
CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE THU NGT THRU SAT...DUE TO DECENT CHC FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTH
HAS RESULTED IN ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. SPEEDS
AVG AROUND 10 KT WITH SEAS GENERALLY 3 FT AND WAVES 2 FT. WARM FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE WATERS TONIGHT FROM THE WEST AS THE RIDGE AXIS AND
SFC LOW PUSH FARTHER OUT TO SEA. THIS WILL VEER THE FLOW AROUND TO
THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT...AVG 10 KT. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TO 2-3
FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS NEAR THE WATERS THURS
AS ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE WATERS THURS
NIGHT-FRI MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE STATES RIDGES SWD OVER
THE WATERS FRI NIGHT-SAT AS LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NC COAST.
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING NELY WINDS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT THRU SAT. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE NE COAST THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. ATTM...SPEEDS APPEAR TO REMAIN
SUB-SCA...BUT SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 4-5 FT LATE SAT THRU
MON.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...SAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 202004
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
404 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND STALLS NEAR
THE COAST THURSDAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A BROAD ~1010MB LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING S THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. GOES WV IMAGERY INDICATES A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING S FROM THE MAIN MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES IN VICINITY OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. ISO-SCT CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS...WITH THE MOST ORGANIZED
ACTIVITY N OF THE LOCAL AREA FROM NRN VA INTO S-CENTRAL PA. THE WARM
FRONT AND MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY TRACK W-E ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A 20-30% POP WILL BE INCLUDED TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A WARM HUMID NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS IS POSSIBLE LATE GIVEN
ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT S FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT STALLS IN VICINITY OF THE COAST THURSDAY. OVERALL
FORCING FOR CONVECTION IS WEAK. HOWEVER...A 20% POP WILL BE
MAINTAINED FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. NW MID-LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY...WITH A WEAK IMPULSE PASSING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD BE ACROSS NRN
PORTIONS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE LOW. A MORE VIGOROUS
WAVE DROPS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE BEST CHC OF AND
GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
DURING THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD DUE TO STRONGER UPPER JET SUPPORT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND PUSHES S INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PUSH THE FRONT S OF THE AREA. AT THIS
TIME...POPS RANGE FORM SLIGHT CHC OVER NE PORTIONS TO CHC ACROSS
S/SW PORTIONS.

HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...BEFORE DROPPING BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 80S
(POSSIBLY UPPER 70S FAR NE) SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS SHOULD
MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DECREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP AND NEAR SEASONABLE...LATE SUMMER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST.

UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE CNTRL CONUS AND LOW PRESSURE/TROUGHING OFF THE NE COAST. FLOW
REMAINS BLOCKED OVER ERN CANADA AND THE NERN US...RESULTING IN
LITTLE PROGRESSION OF THE CNTRL CONUS RIDGE THRU THE PERIOD. THE
RESULT WILL BE ONGOING NWLY FLOW INTO THE EARLY PERIOD. BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL PUSH WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA SUN AS THE TROUGH
AMPLIFIES ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
SLIGHTLY WETTER SUN AFTER PREVIOUSLY BRINGING IN DRIER AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE STATES WILL RIDGE SWD OVER
THE LOCAL AREA IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH SUBSIDENCE INDICATED IN
MODEL SOUNDINGS. MOISTURE ALSO LOOKS TO BE ON THE DOWNTREND AS MODEL
DERIVED PWATS DROP BELOW 1.5 INCHES. WITH THAT SAID...SUN MAY END UP
BEING DRY...BUT WILL RETAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE PIEDMONT AND
COASTAL AREAS AS DISTURBANCES IN NWLY FLOW AND MODEL UNCERTAINTY
DECREASE CONFIDENCE. BETTER CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS HEADING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE CNTRL CONUS HIGH BEGINS TO NUDGE IN FROM
THE WEST AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WINS OUT. BEST MOISTURE ALSO GETS
SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. TREND CONTINUES INTO TUES AND WEDS AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD AND DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WIN OUT.

ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELD DAYTIME TEMPS GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THRU TUES (-1 STD DEV FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR). RETURN FLOW ON WEDS AND WARMING THICKNESSES PUSH TEMPS BACK
INTO THE MID 80S. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S THRU THE PERIOD
AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOW-MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO AND ACRS THE REGION FM THE W
LATE THIS AFTN INTO THU. EXPECT MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS DURING
MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH ISLTD/SCTD PCPN POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTN INTO EARLY THU MORNG. ISLTD IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE TNGT
INTO EARLY THU MORNG...AS LIGHT ESE WINDS BECOME LIGHT SSW. LWR
CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE THU NGT THRU SAT...DUE TO DECENT CHC FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTH
HAS RESULTED IN ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. SPEEDS
AVG AROUND 10 KT WITH SEAS GENERALLY 3 FT AND WAVES 2 FT. WARM FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE WATERS TONIGHT FROM THE WEST AS THE RIDGE AXIS AND
SFC LOW PUSH FARTHER OUT TO SEA. THIS WILL VEER THE FLOW AROUND TO
THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT...AVG 10 KT. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TO 2-3
FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS NEAR THE WATERS THURS
AS ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE WATERS THURS
NIGHT-FRI MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE STATES RIDGES SWD OVER
THE WATERS FRI NIGHT-SAT AS LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NC COAST.
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING NELY WINDS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT THRU SAT. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE NE COAST THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. ATTM...SPEEDS APPEAR TO REMAIN
SUB-SCA...BUT SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 4-5 FT LATE SAT THRU
MON.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...SAM





000
FXUS61 KRNK 201927
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
327 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACKING EAST AND SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE BOUNDARY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
REGION EACH DAY. THE FRONT SHOULD SHIFT BACK SOUTH OF THE REGION
SATURDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

EARLIER CONVECTIVE BANDS FROM THIS MORNING HAVE BASICALLY PUT A LID ON
MOST ADDED SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN DEEP WESTERLY FLOW SEEN OFF
THE VWP...AND LACK OF CU OFF VISIBLE PICS PER BUBBLE OF WEAK
SUBSIDENCE. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT WORKING IN
FROM THE WEST...BEHIND THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING EAST OF THE
RIDGES...MAKES COVERAGE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING IFFY. HOWEVER SINCE
STILL HAVE INCREASING INSTABILITY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND
TENDENCY FOR BETTER CONVERGENCE AFTER MIXING DECREASES...WILL LEAVE IN
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN ALL EXCEPT THE FAR NW PORTIONS EARLY ON.

APPEARS BEST CHANCE AT SEEING MORE COVERAGE WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE AND OVER THE NORTH WHERE WILL BE RIGHT ALONG THE PASSING
VORTICITY AXIS. MAY ALSO HAVE ISOLATED TSRA REDEVELOP WEST OF THE CWA
WHERE HAVE SEEN BETTER MOISTURE/THETA-E AND HEATING ON THE OTHER SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY. THUS KEEPING IN A TSRA MENTION INTO THE EVENING OVER
THE SW. OTRW EXPECT ANY ADDED COVERAGE TO FADE WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND
IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MORE
CLEARING AND PATCHY FOG ESPCLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPS AGAIN SIMILAR
TO THE LAST FEW NIGHTS WITH MUGGY LOW/MID 60S WEST AND 65-70 EAST.

WEAK RESIDUAL FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NE ON THURSDAY AS THE WAVE CHANNEL
ALOFT AROUND THE RIDGE TO THE SW AMPLIFIES A BIT AND STARTS TO SHIFT
NORTH AS WELL. MODELS BRING ANOTHER IMPULSE QUICKLY SE OUT OF THE
UPSTREAM CONVEYOR BELT AND DRIVE IT TOWARD THE NW COUNTIES THURSDAY
MORNING SIMILAR TO TODAY...PERHAPS JUST A BIT SLOWER. HOWEVER LIFT WILL
BE ENCOUNTERING DEEP NW FLOW SO UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW FAR THIS COMPLEX
MAY GET BEFORE FADING. THUS RUNNING WITH INCREASING CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY BLUE RIDGE WEST...WITH HIGHEST ACROSS SE WEST
VA. EXPECT EARLY CONVECTION TO AGAIN FADE CROSSING THE RIDGES AS WE
SLIP IN BETWEEN WAVES BEFORE BETTER INSTABILITY/OUTFLOW HELPS REDEVELOP
AT LEAST SCATTERED AFTERNOON COVERAGE MOUNTAINS...AND ISOLATED OUT EAST
WHERE DOWNSLOPE ALOFT WILL BE STRONGER. THEREFORE TRIMMED BACK POPS TO
MORE CHANCE NATURE GIVEN TRENDS OF LATE AND LACK OF MUCH LIFT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE NEXT WAVE IN OHIO. WARMING ALOFT AND WESTERLY WINDS
SHOULD COMBINE WITH SUNSHINE TO PUSH TEMPS ABOVE 90 SE WITH 80S MOST
OTHER SPOTS PENDING EARLY CLOUDS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST AREA STAYS IN BROAD NORTHWEST SYNOPTIC FLOW. PROBABILITY
OF PRECIPITATION WILL DEPEND ON WHEN SHORT WAVES COME THROUGH.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT CROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
DURING THE LATE NIGHT OR EARLY MORNING...OR UPSTREAM CLUSTERS OF
STORMS THAT SPREAD CLOUDS DOWNSTREAM OVER US WILL DIMINISH THE
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY.

MODELS HAVE AXIS OF BEST LIFT SHIFTING JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS MAY LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. BUT SURFACE BOUNDARY POSSIBLY MOVING SOUTH
THROUGH THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY MAY TRIGGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN HIGH
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LARGE RAINFALL RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY OF
THE STORMS.

EXPECTING MUGGY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING WELL
INTO THE 60S. 850 TEMPERATURES ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL BE COOLER THAN IN THE WEST. OVERALL PRECIPITATION AND
CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 500 MB
HEIGHTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEGIN TO RISE ON TUESDAY WITH THE
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND WEDGED DOWN THE
APPALACHIANS THROUGH TUESDAY. BY THURSDAY A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH WILL
BE IN PLACE.

CHALLENGING TO TIME SHORT WAVES COMING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE.
WPC WAS FAVORING A BLEND OF ENSEMBLE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS KEEPS FORECAST AREA IN A PERSISTENT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME WILL BE
EMPHASIZING SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST CHANCE IN THIS TIME FRAME.

WILL BE WARMING UP CLOSER TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

ACTIVE AND VARIABLE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THIS TAF PERIOD.
EARLY CONVECTION WITHERED ON THE VINE AS IT MOVED OFF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND HELPED STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE FOR A BIT. HOWEVER...
LATEST ANALYSES INDICATE INSTABILITY IS RECOVERING AND MESO MODELS
DO SHOW SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. EASTERN
AREAS ARE ON THE FRINGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING DOWN THE COAST
WHERE THERE WAS EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING. BELIEVE
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR BY ISSUANCE TIME AND WILL USE
VICINITY TO COVER EXPECTED SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT. CONDITIONS
WILL DIP DOWN WITH ANY PRECIPITATION BUT FEEL A TEMPO GROUP WILL
BE TOO HEAVY HANDED SO WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF LOWER CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER TOUGH CALL FOR FOG/LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT.
INDICATIONS IN MESO RH FIELDS ARE THAT IFR/LIFR WILL BE LESS
WIDESPREAD SO WILL TRY TO CONFINE LOW CONDITIONS TO A SMALLER PERIOD
TOWARD DAYBREAK...JUST IN TIME TO MENTION SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY WITH THE NEXT WAVE OF ENERGY ENTERING FROM THE WEST. WINDS
WILL NOT BE PROBLEMATIC FOR AVIATION PURPOSES THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION...

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH PERIODICALLY AND
INTERACTING WITH A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DUE
TO THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR...EXPECT STRATUS AND FOG
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR MOST PRONOUNCED
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 9AM EACH DAY. MODELS ARE INDICATED THAT A DEEPER
EASTERLY SORT OF WIND FLOW WILL SETUP FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THIS SUGGEST THAT LOW CIGS MAY PERSIST EVEN DURING THE DAYTIME
PERIODS...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND DUE TO MOISTURE BANKING UP AGAINST THE
EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...MBS



000
FXUS61 KRNK 201927
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
327 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACKING EAST AND SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE BOUNDARY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
REGION EACH DAY. THE FRONT SHOULD SHIFT BACK SOUTH OF THE REGION
SATURDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

EARLIER CONVECTIVE BANDS FROM THIS MORNING HAVE BASICALLY PUT A LID ON
MOST ADDED SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN DEEP WESTERLY FLOW SEEN OFF
THE VWP...AND LACK OF CU OFF VISIBLE PICS PER BUBBLE OF WEAK
SUBSIDENCE. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT WORKING IN
FROM THE WEST...BEHIND THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING EAST OF THE
RIDGES...MAKES COVERAGE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING IFFY. HOWEVER SINCE
STILL HAVE INCREASING INSTABILITY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND
TENDENCY FOR BETTER CONVERGENCE AFTER MIXING DECREASES...WILL LEAVE IN
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN ALL EXCEPT THE FAR NW PORTIONS EARLY ON.

APPEARS BEST CHANCE AT SEEING MORE COVERAGE WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE AND OVER THE NORTH WHERE WILL BE RIGHT ALONG THE PASSING
VORTICITY AXIS. MAY ALSO HAVE ISOLATED TSRA REDEVELOP WEST OF THE CWA
WHERE HAVE SEEN BETTER MOISTURE/THETA-E AND HEATING ON THE OTHER SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY. THUS KEEPING IN A TSRA MENTION INTO THE EVENING OVER
THE SW. OTRW EXPECT ANY ADDED COVERAGE TO FADE WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND
IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MORE
CLEARING AND PATCHY FOG ESPCLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPS AGAIN SIMILAR
TO THE LAST FEW NIGHTS WITH MUGGY LOW/MID 60S WEST AND 65-70 EAST.

WEAK RESIDUAL FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NE ON THURSDAY AS THE WAVE CHANNEL
ALOFT AROUND THE RIDGE TO THE SW AMPLIFIES A BIT AND STARTS TO SHIFT
NORTH AS WELL. MODELS BRING ANOTHER IMPULSE QUICKLY SE OUT OF THE
UPSTREAM CONVEYOR BELT AND DRIVE IT TOWARD THE NW COUNTIES THURSDAY
MORNING SIMILAR TO TODAY...PERHAPS JUST A BIT SLOWER. HOWEVER LIFT WILL
BE ENCOUNTERING DEEP NW FLOW SO UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW FAR THIS COMPLEX
MAY GET BEFORE FADING. THUS RUNNING WITH INCREASING CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY BLUE RIDGE WEST...WITH HIGHEST ACROSS SE WEST
VA. EXPECT EARLY CONVECTION TO AGAIN FADE CROSSING THE RIDGES AS WE
SLIP IN BETWEEN WAVES BEFORE BETTER INSTABILITY/OUTFLOW HELPS REDEVELOP
AT LEAST SCATTERED AFTERNOON COVERAGE MOUNTAINS...AND ISOLATED OUT EAST
WHERE DOWNSLOPE ALOFT WILL BE STRONGER. THEREFORE TRIMMED BACK POPS TO
MORE CHANCE NATURE GIVEN TRENDS OF LATE AND LACK OF MUCH LIFT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE NEXT WAVE IN OHIO. WARMING ALOFT AND WESTERLY WINDS
SHOULD COMBINE WITH SUNSHINE TO PUSH TEMPS ABOVE 90 SE WITH 80S MOST
OTHER SPOTS PENDING EARLY CLOUDS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST AREA STAYS IN BROAD NORTHWEST SYNOPTIC FLOW. PROBABILITY
OF PRECIPITATION WILL DEPEND ON WHEN SHORT WAVES COME THROUGH.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT CROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
DURING THE LATE NIGHT OR EARLY MORNING...OR UPSTREAM CLUSTERS OF
STORMS THAT SPREAD CLOUDS DOWNSTREAM OVER US WILL DIMINISH THE
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY.

MODELS HAVE AXIS OF BEST LIFT SHIFTING JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS MAY LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. BUT SURFACE BOUNDARY POSSIBLY MOVING SOUTH
THROUGH THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY MAY TRIGGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN HIGH
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LARGE RAINFALL RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY OF
THE STORMS.

EXPECTING MUGGY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING WELL
INTO THE 60S. 850 TEMPERATURES ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL BE COOLER THAN IN THE WEST. OVERALL PRECIPITATION AND
CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 500 MB
HEIGHTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEGIN TO RISE ON TUESDAY WITH THE
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND WEDGED DOWN THE
APPALACHIANS THROUGH TUESDAY. BY THURSDAY A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH WILL
BE IN PLACE.

CHALLENGING TO TIME SHORT WAVES COMING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE.
WPC WAS FAVORING A BLEND OF ENSEMBLE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS KEEPS FORECAST AREA IN A PERSISTENT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME WILL BE
EMPHASIZING SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST CHANCE IN THIS TIME FRAME.

WILL BE WARMING UP CLOSER TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

ACTIVE AND VARIABLE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THIS TAF PERIOD.
EARLY CONVECTION WITHERED ON THE VINE AS IT MOVED OFF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND HELPED STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE FOR A BIT. HOWEVER...
LATEST ANALYSES INDICATE INSTABILITY IS RECOVERING AND MESO MODELS
DO SHOW SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. EASTERN
AREAS ARE ON THE FRINGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING DOWN THE COAST
WHERE THERE WAS EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING. BELIEVE
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR BY ISSUANCE TIME AND WILL USE
VICINITY TO COVER EXPECTED SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT. CONDITIONS
WILL DIP DOWN WITH ANY PRECIPITATION BUT FEEL A TEMPO GROUP WILL
BE TOO HEAVY HANDED SO WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF LOWER CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER TOUGH CALL FOR FOG/LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT.
INDICATIONS IN MESO RH FIELDS ARE THAT IFR/LIFR WILL BE LESS
WIDESPREAD SO WILL TRY TO CONFINE LOW CONDITIONS TO A SMALLER PERIOD
TOWARD DAYBREAK...JUST IN TIME TO MENTION SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY WITH THE NEXT WAVE OF ENERGY ENTERING FROM THE WEST. WINDS
WILL NOT BE PROBLEMATIC FOR AVIATION PURPOSES THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION...

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH PERIODICALLY AND
INTERACTING WITH A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DUE
TO THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR...EXPECT STRATUS AND FOG
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR MOST PRONOUNCED
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 9AM EACH DAY. MODELS ARE INDICATED THAT A DEEPER
EASTERLY SORT OF WIND FLOW WILL SETUP FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THIS SUGGEST THAT LOW CIGS MAY PERSIST EVEN DURING THE DAYTIME
PERIODS...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND DUE TO MOISTURE BANKING UP AGAINST THE
EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...MBS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 201856
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
256 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH AND WEST AS A COLD FRONT FRIDAY
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL EXTEND INTO OUR AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST DURING THIS TIME
DUE TO PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHILE
MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE MID WEST IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. A JET STREAK IS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.

A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND
NORTHERN VA. MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS 500-1000 J/KG WEST OF I-95 AND
25-30KTS OF SHEAR. PWATS HAVE RISEN TO 1.6-1.8 INCHES ACROSS THIS
REGION. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH DMG WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT. BOWING SEGMENTS AND RIJ
SIGNITURES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ON RADAR. AT THIS TIME...HAVE NOT
CONFIRMED GROUND TRUTH REPORTS FOR DMG WINDS. HEAVY RAINFALL HAS
ALSO BEEN OBSERVED. HRRR INCREASES COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND ACTIVITY SHOULD REACH THE I-95 LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SFC WILL KEEP MOIST CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION MAINLY IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAIN TODAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS ONTARIO BY THURSDAY MORNING
AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE MID WEST BUT TIMING IS DIFFICULT.
A SFC TROUGH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. THIS WILL
PRODUCE WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE TROUGH AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH. AT THIS TIME...A DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
REGION THURS AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTHWEST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AT THIS TIME AND MOVE
EAST-SOUTHEAST. THE SFC TROUGH WILL ALSO LEAD TO ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...INSTABILITY WILL BE
MARGINAL AND SHEAR SEEMS WEAK. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SUB-SEVERE. PWATS
ARE EXPECTED TO RISE NEAR 1.9 INCHES THURSDAY PRODUCING HUMID
CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY AS A 250MB JET SITS NEAR THE REGION AND
DISTURBANCES APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING DISTURBANCES MAY LEAD TO CLEARING FRIDAY AND THEREFORE
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY INCREASE. AT THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE IS LOW
ON THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FCST MAX TEMPS WILL
REACH THE LOW 80S ON FRIDAY.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FOCUSED IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS
WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY...PROVIDING ONE FINAL PERIOD OF
ENHANCED RAINFALL AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AT THE
SURFACE. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN US FOR
WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN US
RIDGES DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS RIDGING COMBINED WITH
EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF A COASTAL LOW OFF OF CAPE
HATTERAS WILL BRING ONSHORE FLOW FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC MIDDAY
SATURDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WORKWEEK. THE MARINE LAYER
THAT WILL FILL IN WILL BRING SEASONABLY COOL AND MOIST AIR...LEADING
TO A LOW CLOUD DECK THAT WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
LIKELY INTO MONDAY EVENING...PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
CHANCE POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE WHERE THERE WILL BE AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE MOIST EASTERLY
FLOW.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MIGRATE OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY
NIGHT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO FILL IN LOCALLY. THIS WILL
SIGNAL AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS WILL GO FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 70S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY TO NEAR 80 TUESDAY AND MID 80S
WEDNESDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION FEATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHRA AND TSRA IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS A LINE OF TSRA MOVES
EASTWARD. GUSTY WINDS AND IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN TSRA. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP MOISTURE IN THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AND PATCHY IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE AT MRB AND CHO.
MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE AT IAD. MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR
BWI-MTN BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

SHRA AND TSRA POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO FRIDAY AND MAY
CAUSE MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS.

PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AS A MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MARINE AIRMASS SETTLES INTO
THE AREA.
&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS
SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT IN BREEZY EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF A
COASTAL LOW OFF OF THE NORTH CAROLINA FLOW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT IT WILL REMAIN
WEAK. THE FLOW MAY TURN MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WOULD CAUSE
WATER LEVELS TO BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN RECENTLY.
THIS WILL CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO BE CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...HAS/CEB
MARINE...HAS/CEB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201807
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
207 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT SLOWLY PULLS NORTH INTO THE AREA TODAY...THEN REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WK SFC LO PRES OFFSHORE CONTS TO SLOLY MOVE E AND AWAY FM THE
MDATLC CST TDA. LINGERING FNTL BNDRY S OF THE FA THIS MRNG...W/
SFC HI PRES TO THE NNE...RESULTING IN CONTD SFC FLO FM THE ENE
ACRS THE FA (IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SFC LO PRES). REMNANT BNDRY
TO THE S PULLS SLOLY N INTO THE FA TDA AS WK SFC LO PRES INVOF
LAKES/UPR OH VLY APPROACHES FM THE WNW. ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION ALG
WK CDFNT AND ASSOCIATED W/ MID/UPR LVL S/W MOVING THROUGH ERN OH
VLY ATTM. DURG TDA...XPCG VRB CLDS TO PCLDY WX ACRS FA AFTER
MORNING ST ERODES OVER THE PIEDMONT AND FAR SE VA/NE NC. OTRW...FM
MIDDAY THROUGH AFTN/EVE HRS...SCT CONVECTION PSBL...ESP NRN
PORTION OF FA...AS SYS PASSES BY JUST TO THE N OF THE FA. HI TEMPS
FM THE L/M80S AT THE CST...TO M/U80S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE OVERALL PATTERN IS AGREED UPON IN THE MID RANGE PART OF THE
FORECAST AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SLIDES INTO THE
EAST AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MS VALLEY BUILDS
NORTHWARD...SETTING UP NW FLO ALOFT OVER OF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. HOWEVER...BEYOND THE THAT...THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MAKES THE TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION VERY UNCERTAIN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...A WK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE IN THE VICINITY SHOULD
BE SOME STATIONARY AND NRLY PARALLEL TO THE FLOW ALOFT AND COULD
ALSO BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. AT THIS POINT...WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY...WILL CONT TO LEAN MORE TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY WITH BEST
CHANCES IN THE PIEDMONT EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN AREA WIDE
IN LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT.

LO TEMPS TNGT FM THE M60S TO ARND 70F. HI TEMPS THU FM THE M80S AT
THE CST TO L90S INLAND. HI TEMPS FRI IN THE L/M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN NWLY
FLOW ALOFT...BUT DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE...LATE SUMMER NORMS TO BEGIN THE
EXTENDED BEFORE RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW DURING THE EXTENDED IS HIGHLIGHTED BY SPLIT/BLOCKY
FLOW OFF THE ERN CANADA AND NERN US COAST AND AMPLIFYING HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SRN CONUS. THIS PLACES THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION IN
NWLY FLOW ALOFT. ASSOCIATED BACK DOOR FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA SATURDAY MORNING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED OVER THE NE
WILL RIDGE SWWD ALONG THE COAST AND INTO CNTRL VA. NLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW INDICATED IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WILL DRIVE DEWPOINTS
DOWNWARD INTO THE MID 60S. HOWEVER...MODEL DERIVED PWATS REMAIN
AROUND 1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES. COMBINED WITH PERTURBATIONS IN THE NWLY
FLOW...WILL HAVE MNLY CLDY WX AND MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH
FOR POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM...ROUNDING THE RIDGE AND
DROPPING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT THRU THE WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO LOCATE OFF THE COAST. BLOCK WILL
REMAIN OFF THE NE COAST...BUT MOISTURE FEED WILL BE CUT OFF.
DECREASING MOISTURE AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM...SO WILL
LEAVE POPS SILENT.

NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THICKNESSES AND GUIDANCE YIELD TEMPS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S THRU MONDAY (AROUND -1 STD DEV). OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S NEAR THE WATER. WARMING BACK
UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO AND ACRS THE REGION FM THE W
LATE THIS AFTN INTO THU. EXPECT MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS DURING
MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH ISLTD/SCTD PCPN POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTN INTO EARLY THU MORNG. ISLTD IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE TNGT
INTO EARLY THU MORNG...AS LIGHT ESE WINDS BECOME LIGHT SSW. LWR
CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE THU NGT THRU SAT...DUE TO DECENT CHC FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. HI PRES PERSISTS JUST N
OF THE AREA TDA AS LO PRES AND AN ASSOCIATED FRNTAL BNDRY SLOWLY
SLIDE SE OF THE WTRS. THE RESULT WILL BE NE FLOW MAINLY 5-10 KT OVR
THE BAY/SOUND/RIVERS AND 10-15 KT OVR CSTL WTRS. EXPECT 2-3 FT SEAS
OVR THE OCEAN AND 1-2 FT WAVES OVR THE BAY FOR TDA INTO TNGT.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BNDRY LIFTS N AS A
WARM FRNT THU INTO FRI...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE OVR THE WEEKEND.
DURING THE WEEKEND...THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH NELY WINDS
INCREASING TO 10-20 KT. THIS WILL PUSH SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS TO 3-4
FT...WITH 5 FT PSBL 20NM OUT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB/ESS
NEAR TERM...ALB/ESS/JAO
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MAS






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201807
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
207 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT SLOWLY PULLS NORTH INTO THE AREA TODAY...THEN REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WK SFC LO PRES OFFSHORE CONTS TO SLOLY MOVE E AND AWAY FM THE
MDATLC CST TDA. LINGERING FNTL BNDRY S OF THE FA THIS MRNG...W/
SFC HI PRES TO THE NNE...RESULTING IN CONTD SFC FLO FM THE ENE
ACRS THE FA (IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SFC LO PRES). REMNANT BNDRY
TO THE S PULLS SLOLY N INTO THE FA TDA AS WK SFC LO PRES INVOF
LAKES/UPR OH VLY APPROACHES FM THE WNW. ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION ALG
WK CDFNT AND ASSOCIATED W/ MID/UPR LVL S/W MOVING THROUGH ERN OH
VLY ATTM. DURG TDA...XPCG VRB CLDS TO PCLDY WX ACRS FA AFTER
MORNING ST ERODES OVER THE PIEDMONT AND FAR SE VA/NE NC. OTRW...FM
MIDDAY THROUGH AFTN/EVE HRS...SCT CONVECTION PSBL...ESP NRN
PORTION OF FA...AS SYS PASSES BY JUST TO THE N OF THE FA. HI TEMPS
FM THE L/M80S AT THE CST...TO M/U80S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE OVERALL PATTERN IS AGREED UPON IN THE MID RANGE PART OF THE
FORECAST AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SLIDES INTO THE
EAST AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MS VALLEY BUILDS
NORTHWARD...SETTING UP NW FLO ALOFT OVER OF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. HOWEVER...BEYOND THE THAT...THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MAKES THE TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION VERY UNCERTAIN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...A WK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE IN THE VICINITY SHOULD
BE SOME STATIONARY AND NRLY PARALLEL TO THE FLOW ALOFT AND COULD
ALSO BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. AT THIS POINT...WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY...WILL CONT TO LEAN MORE TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY WITH BEST
CHANCES IN THE PIEDMONT EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN AREA WIDE
IN LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT.

LO TEMPS TNGT FM THE M60S TO ARND 70F. HI TEMPS THU FM THE M80S AT
THE CST TO L90S INLAND. HI TEMPS FRI IN THE L/M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN NWLY
FLOW ALOFT...BUT DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE...LATE SUMMER NORMS TO BEGIN THE
EXTENDED BEFORE RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW DURING THE EXTENDED IS HIGHLIGHTED BY SPLIT/BLOCKY
FLOW OFF THE ERN CANADA AND NERN US COAST AND AMPLIFYING HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SRN CONUS. THIS PLACES THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION IN
NWLY FLOW ALOFT. ASSOCIATED BACK DOOR FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA SATURDAY MORNING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED OVER THE NE
WILL RIDGE SWWD ALONG THE COAST AND INTO CNTRL VA. NLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW INDICATED IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WILL DRIVE DEWPOINTS
DOWNWARD INTO THE MID 60S. HOWEVER...MODEL DERIVED PWATS REMAIN
AROUND 1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES. COMBINED WITH PERTURBATIONS IN THE NWLY
FLOW...WILL HAVE MNLY CLDY WX AND MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH
FOR POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM...ROUNDING THE RIDGE AND
DROPPING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT THRU THE WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO LOCATE OFF THE COAST. BLOCK WILL
REMAIN OFF THE NE COAST...BUT MOISTURE FEED WILL BE CUT OFF.
DECREASING MOISTURE AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM...SO WILL
LEAVE POPS SILENT.

NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THICKNESSES AND GUIDANCE YIELD TEMPS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S THRU MONDAY (AROUND -1 STD DEV). OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S NEAR THE WATER. WARMING BACK
UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO AND ACRS THE REGION FM THE W
LATE THIS AFTN INTO THU. EXPECT MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS DURING
MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH ISLTD/SCTD PCPN POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTN INTO EARLY THU MORNG. ISLTD IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE TNGT
INTO EARLY THU MORNG...AS LIGHT ESE WINDS BECOME LIGHT SSW. LWR
CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE THU NGT THRU SAT...DUE TO DECENT CHC FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. HI PRES PERSISTS JUST N
OF THE AREA TDA AS LO PRES AND AN ASSOCIATED FRNTAL BNDRY SLOWLY
SLIDE SE OF THE WTRS. THE RESULT WILL BE NE FLOW MAINLY 5-10 KT OVR
THE BAY/SOUND/RIVERS AND 10-15 KT OVR CSTL WTRS. EXPECT 2-3 FT SEAS
OVR THE OCEAN AND 1-2 FT WAVES OVR THE BAY FOR TDA INTO TNGT.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BNDRY LIFTS N AS A
WARM FRNT THU INTO FRI...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE OVR THE WEEKEND.
DURING THE WEEKEND...THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH NELY WINDS
INCREASING TO 10-20 KT. THIS WILL PUSH SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS TO 3-4
FT...WITH 5 FT PSBL 20NM OUT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB/ESS
NEAR TERM...ALB/ESS/JAO
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MAS






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201807
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
207 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT SLOWLY PULLS NORTH INTO THE AREA TODAY...THEN REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WK SFC LO PRES OFFSHORE CONTS TO SLOLY MOVE E AND AWAY FM THE
MDATLC CST TDA. LINGERING FNTL BNDRY S OF THE FA THIS MRNG...W/
SFC HI PRES TO THE NNE...RESULTING IN CONTD SFC FLO FM THE ENE
ACRS THE FA (IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SFC LO PRES). REMNANT BNDRY
TO THE S PULLS SLOLY N INTO THE FA TDA AS WK SFC LO PRES INVOF
LAKES/UPR OH VLY APPROACHES FM THE WNW. ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION ALG
WK CDFNT AND ASSOCIATED W/ MID/UPR LVL S/W MOVING THROUGH ERN OH
VLY ATTM. DURG TDA...XPCG VRB CLDS TO PCLDY WX ACRS FA AFTER
MORNING ST ERODES OVER THE PIEDMONT AND FAR SE VA/NE NC. OTRW...FM
MIDDAY THROUGH AFTN/EVE HRS...SCT CONVECTION PSBL...ESP NRN
PORTION OF FA...AS SYS PASSES BY JUST TO THE N OF THE FA. HI TEMPS
FM THE L/M80S AT THE CST...TO M/U80S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE OVERALL PATTERN IS AGREED UPON IN THE MID RANGE PART OF THE
FORECAST AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SLIDES INTO THE
EAST AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MS VALLEY BUILDS
NORTHWARD...SETTING UP NW FLO ALOFT OVER OF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. HOWEVER...BEYOND THE THAT...THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MAKES THE TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION VERY UNCERTAIN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...A WK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE IN THE VICINITY SHOULD
BE SOME STATIONARY AND NRLY PARALLEL TO THE FLOW ALOFT AND COULD
ALSO BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. AT THIS POINT...WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY...WILL CONT TO LEAN MORE TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY WITH BEST
CHANCES IN THE PIEDMONT EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN AREA WIDE
IN LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT.

LO TEMPS TNGT FM THE M60S TO ARND 70F. HI TEMPS THU FM THE M80S AT
THE CST TO L90S INLAND. HI TEMPS FRI IN THE L/M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN NWLY
FLOW ALOFT...BUT DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE...LATE SUMMER NORMS TO BEGIN THE
EXTENDED BEFORE RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW DURING THE EXTENDED IS HIGHLIGHTED BY SPLIT/BLOCKY
FLOW OFF THE ERN CANADA AND NERN US COAST AND AMPLIFYING HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SRN CONUS. THIS PLACES THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION IN
NWLY FLOW ALOFT. ASSOCIATED BACK DOOR FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA SATURDAY MORNING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED OVER THE NE
WILL RIDGE SWWD ALONG THE COAST AND INTO CNTRL VA. NLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW INDICATED IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WILL DRIVE DEWPOINTS
DOWNWARD INTO THE MID 60S. HOWEVER...MODEL DERIVED PWATS REMAIN
AROUND 1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES. COMBINED WITH PERTURBATIONS IN THE NWLY
FLOW...WILL HAVE MNLY CLDY WX AND MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH
FOR POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM...ROUNDING THE RIDGE AND
DROPPING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT THRU THE WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO LOCATE OFF THE COAST. BLOCK WILL
REMAIN OFF THE NE COAST...BUT MOISTURE FEED WILL BE CUT OFF.
DECREASING MOISTURE AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM...SO WILL
LEAVE POPS SILENT.

NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THICKNESSES AND GUIDANCE YIELD TEMPS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S THRU MONDAY (AROUND -1 STD DEV). OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S NEAR THE WATER. WARMING BACK
UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO AND ACRS THE REGION FM THE W
LATE THIS AFTN INTO THU. EXPECT MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS DURING
MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH ISLTD/SCTD PCPN POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTN INTO EARLY THU MORNG. ISLTD IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE TNGT
INTO EARLY THU MORNG...AS LIGHT ESE WINDS BECOME LIGHT SSW. LWR
CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE THU NGT THRU SAT...DUE TO DECENT CHC FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. HI PRES PERSISTS JUST N
OF THE AREA TDA AS LO PRES AND AN ASSOCIATED FRNTAL BNDRY SLOWLY
SLIDE SE OF THE WTRS. THE RESULT WILL BE NE FLOW MAINLY 5-10 KT OVR
THE BAY/SOUND/RIVERS AND 10-15 KT OVR CSTL WTRS. EXPECT 2-3 FT SEAS
OVR THE OCEAN AND 1-2 FT WAVES OVR THE BAY FOR TDA INTO TNGT.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BNDRY LIFTS N AS A
WARM FRNT THU INTO FRI...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE OVR THE WEEKEND.
DURING THE WEEKEND...THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH NELY WINDS
INCREASING TO 10-20 KT. THIS WILL PUSH SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS TO 3-4
FT...WITH 5 FT PSBL 20NM OUT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB/ESS
NEAR TERM...ALB/ESS/JAO
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MAS






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201807
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
207 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT SLOWLY PULLS NORTH INTO THE AREA TODAY...THEN REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WK SFC LO PRES OFFSHORE CONTS TO SLOLY MOVE E AND AWAY FM THE
MDATLC CST TDA. LINGERING FNTL BNDRY S OF THE FA THIS MRNG...W/
SFC HI PRES TO THE NNE...RESULTING IN CONTD SFC FLO FM THE ENE
ACRS THE FA (IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SFC LO PRES). REMNANT BNDRY
TO THE S PULLS SLOLY N INTO THE FA TDA AS WK SFC LO PRES INVOF
LAKES/UPR OH VLY APPROACHES FM THE WNW. ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION ALG
WK CDFNT AND ASSOCIATED W/ MID/UPR LVL S/W MOVING THROUGH ERN OH
VLY ATTM. DURG TDA...XPCG VRB CLDS TO PCLDY WX ACRS FA AFTER
MORNING ST ERODES OVER THE PIEDMONT AND FAR SE VA/NE NC. OTRW...FM
MIDDAY THROUGH AFTN/EVE HRS...SCT CONVECTION PSBL...ESP NRN
PORTION OF FA...AS SYS PASSES BY JUST TO THE N OF THE FA. HI TEMPS
FM THE L/M80S AT THE CST...TO M/U80S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE OVERALL PATTERN IS AGREED UPON IN THE MID RANGE PART OF THE
FORECAST AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SLIDES INTO THE
EAST AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MS VALLEY BUILDS
NORTHWARD...SETTING UP NW FLO ALOFT OVER OF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. HOWEVER...BEYOND THE THAT...THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MAKES THE TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION VERY UNCERTAIN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...A WK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE IN THE VICINITY SHOULD
BE SOME STATIONARY AND NRLY PARALLEL TO THE FLOW ALOFT AND COULD
ALSO BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. AT THIS POINT...WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY...WILL CONT TO LEAN MORE TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY WITH BEST
CHANCES IN THE PIEDMONT EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN AREA WIDE
IN LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT.

LO TEMPS TNGT FM THE M60S TO ARND 70F. HI TEMPS THU FM THE M80S AT
THE CST TO L90S INLAND. HI TEMPS FRI IN THE L/M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN NWLY
FLOW ALOFT...BUT DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE...LATE SUMMER NORMS TO BEGIN THE
EXTENDED BEFORE RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW DURING THE EXTENDED IS HIGHLIGHTED BY SPLIT/BLOCKY
FLOW OFF THE ERN CANADA AND NERN US COAST AND AMPLIFYING HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SRN CONUS. THIS PLACES THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION IN
NWLY FLOW ALOFT. ASSOCIATED BACK DOOR FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA SATURDAY MORNING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED OVER THE NE
WILL RIDGE SWWD ALONG THE COAST AND INTO CNTRL VA. NLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW INDICATED IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WILL DRIVE DEWPOINTS
DOWNWARD INTO THE MID 60S. HOWEVER...MODEL DERIVED PWATS REMAIN
AROUND 1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES. COMBINED WITH PERTURBATIONS IN THE NWLY
FLOW...WILL HAVE MNLY CLDY WX AND MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH
FOR POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM...ROUNDING THE RIDGE AND
DROPPING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT THRU THE WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO LOCATE OFF THE COAST. BLOCK WILL
REMAIN OFF THE NE COAST...BUT MOISTURE FEED WILL BE CUT OFF.
DECREASING MOISTURE AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM...SO WILL
LEAVE POPS SILENT.

NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THICKNESSES AND GUIDANCE YIELD TEMPS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S THRU MONDAY (AROUND -1 STD DEV). OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S NEAR THE WATER. WARMING BACK
UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO AND ACRS THE REGION FM THE W
LATE THIS AFTN INTO THU. EXPECT MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS DURING
MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH ISLTD/SCTD PCPN POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTN INTO EARLY THU MORNG. ISLTD IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE TNGT
INTO EARLY THU MORNG...AS LIGHT ESE WINDS BECOME LIGHT SSW. LWR
CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE THU NGT THRU SAT...DUE TO DECENT CHC FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. HI PRES PERSISTS JUST N
OF THE AREA TDA AS LO PRES AND AN ASSOCIATED FRNTAL BNDRY SLOWLY
SLIDE SE OF THE WTRS. THE RESULT WILL BE NE FLOW MAINLY 5-10 KT OVR
THE BAY/SOUND/RIVERS AND 10-15 KT OVR CSTL WTRS. EXPECT 2-3 FT SEAS
OVR THE OCEAN AND 1-2 FT WAVES OVR THE BAY FOR TDA INTO TNGT.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BNDRY LIFTS N AS A
WARM FRNT THU INTO FRI...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE OVR THE WEEKEND.
DURING THE WEEKEND...THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH NELY WINDS
INCREASING TO 10-20 KT. THIS WILL PUSH SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS TO 3-4
FT...WITH 5 FT PSBL 20NM OUT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB/ESS
NEAR TERM...ALB/ESS/JAO
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MAS






000
FXUS61 KRNK 201719
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
119 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACKING EAST AND SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE BOUNDARY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
REGION EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 955 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PUSH SE OUT OF THE MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE REGION INTO THE BLUE RIDGE ATTM AND EXPECT THIS AXIS TO
PERSIST UNTIL PERHAPS TOPPING THE FOOTHILLS IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO. THIS DESPITE LACK OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE SHRA/TSRA
COMPLEX AS FEED OF BETTER CAPES AND THETA-E ADVECTION OFF TO THE
WEST PROVIDING SUPPORT. THIS AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE WESTERN SLOPES AND ALONG
THE RESIDUAL SURFACE FRONT THAT HAS BACKDOORED SW INTO SW VA EARLY
THIS MORNING.

ALTHOUGH EXPECTING THIS PRECIP TO FADE...COMBINATION OF EARLY
CLOUDS/SHRA OVER THE WEST AND LINGERING FOG/STRATUS IN THE EASTERN
WEDGE WILL MAKE THINGS TRICKY IN REGARDS TO POSSIBLE RENEWED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. MOST EARLIER GUIDANCE AND CURRENT SHORT TERM
SOLUTIONS WANT TO REDEVELOP TSRA ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE BEFORE
SLIDING THIS EAST INTO EARLY EVENING AS THE TROUGH AXIS LIFTS NE.
HOWEVER THE LATEST HRRR ONLY SHOWS ISOLATED COVERAGE BLUE RIDGE
AFTER CURRENT SHRA FIZZLES WHILE THE 12Z NAM SLOWER IN HOLDING OFF
MOST NEW CONVECTION UNTIL LATE OR EARLY EVENING EAST WITH SOME
WEAK CAPPING ALOFT UNDER RESIDUAL CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
CURRENT COVERAGE. THUS HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWN SOME IN THE FAR
WEST AND TRIMMED LIKELYS DOWN BLUE RIDGE BEHIND THE ONGOING
COVERAGE BEFORE BEEFING UP OUT EAST MID/LATE AFTERNOON AS CAPES
RECOVER LATE TO 1-2K J/KG. HIGH TEMPS WILL AGAIN GET OFF TO A
SLOW START IN SPOTS WITH LATE DAY HIGHS MOST SPOTS PENDING ADDED
SHRA/TSRA WITH PERHAPS THE FAR WEST BEING THE WARMEST WITH MORE
SUN EARLIER BEHIND THE CURRENT COVERAGE.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES WITH LOBE OF VORTICITY TRAILING SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS FEATURE HAS RESULTED IN A PERSISTENT AREA OF LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS OF 08Z/4AM...NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS WERE OCCURRING FROM WESTERN PA INTO EASTERN OHIO AND
NORTHEAST KY. OUTFLOW FROM THIS COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY.

MODELS DO NOT SEEM OVERLY CONFIDENT THIS OUTFLOW WILL MAKE IT
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...INDICATING WEAKENING AND A GRADUAL DEMISE OF
ACTIVITY. MATTER OF FACT THE SYNOPTIC MODELS DON`T PRODUCE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF RAINFALL AT ALL ACROSS OUR CWA...MOS POPS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 40 PERCENT.

ATTM PREFER NOT TO IGNORE THE OBVIOUS...WHICH IS A MODEST LOOKING
UPPER LEVEL TROF...ASSOCIATED WITH A HEALTHY LOOKING AREA OF
SHRA/TSRA...THE OUTFLOW OF WHICH SHOULD PASS THROUGH OUR FORECAST
AREA TODAY. THE ONLY THING THAT KEPT ME FROM GOING WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS IS THE POTENTIAL TIMING OF THE ACTIVITY AS IT
CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS. BASED ON CURRENT PROGRESSION...SHOWERS WILL
MOVE INTO THE WV MOUNTAINS DURING THE MORNING...THEN PROGRESS EAST
REACHING THE BLUE RIDGE TOWARD NOON...THEN EAST OF THE MTNS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS EARLIER SORT OF TIMING SUGGESTS DEBRIS CLOUDS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE CWA EARLY AND LIMIT FULL INSOLATION THUS
LIMITING INSTABILITY.

THAT SAID...THINK AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT IN A WEAKENED STATE. GREATEST
COVERAGE WILL BE FROM THE VIRGINIAS NORTHWARD CLOSER TO THE UPPER
SUPPORT FROM THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...THE STRONGER DYNAMIC LIFT
MOVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO PA/NY. HAVE PLACED THE HIGHEST
POPS ACROSS WV/VA CLOSER TO THE SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER TROF...AND
WHERE THE OUTFLOW WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF MAKING IT OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND HELP FOCUS RENEWED DEEP CONVECTION. FARTHER
SOUTH...FROM THE VA/NC BORDER SOUTHWARD...COVERAGE WILL BE LESS
AND MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE. WITH LESS COVERAGE COMES THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE SUN. MORE SUN SUGGESTS WARMER
TEMPERATURES...AND WARMER TEMEPERATURES WILL YIELD GREATER
INSTABILITY PROVIDING STRONGER UPDRAFTS. AS SUCH CAN`T RULE OUT A
STRONG PULSE STORM OR TWO...ESPECIALLY WHERE MORE SUN
MATERIALIZES.

WENT BLO MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS WHERE
MORE CLOUD COVER IS ANTICIPATED TODAY. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WHERE MORE SUN IS ANTICIPATED.

PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING AN END TO MOST OF THE STORM
ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FOGGY NIGHT WITH
AREAS OF FOG AND PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. IF SKIES CAN COMPLETELY CLEAR...THIS WOULD BE MOST IDEAL FOR
RADIATION FOG. THERE WERE SEVERAL REPORTS IN THE NEW RIVER VALLEY
WITH DENSE FOG EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THINK IT WILL BE A REPEAT
AGAIN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN DURING THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A STRONG UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
SITUATED ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A DEEPENING UPPER
LOW/TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. OUR AREA
OF THE COUNTRY WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE TWO WITHIN NW-SE
ORIENTED MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT EITHER OVER...OR VERY CLOSE TO THE REGION BY THE
START OF THE WEEKEND.

THE ABOVE SCENARIO POINTS TOWARD A PERIOD WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY AND NIGHT...AND SOME AFTERNOON AND
EVENING STORMS. WHAT IS A LITTLE HARDER TO NAIL DOWN WILL BE THE
WINDOWS OF OPPORTUNITY FOR LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION IN ASSOCIATION WITH PERIODICAL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS HEADING SOUTHEAST ALONG THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THROUGH OUR
REGION. EACH MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE A DIFFERENT TAKE ON TIMING AND
TRACK.

EYEBALLING A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARD THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS ONE POTENTIAL TIME THAT WOULD WARRANT
HIGHER POPS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE REGION. ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY MAY BE FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS MAINLY
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. FINALLY...SATURDAY NIGHT MAY
PROVE TO BE A THIRD OPPORTUNITY FOR ALL OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS.

AT THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE IS NOT THERE TO OFFER A CATEGORICAL...75
PERCENT OR HIGHER...CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR ANY ONE OF THE THREE
SCENARIOS LISTED ABOVE. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE...OR ADD...A
FORECAST OF LIKELY POPS TO THE FIRST AND SECOND SCENARIOS. FOR THE
THIRD SCENARIO...WILL OFFER A FORECAST JUST SHY OF LIKELY POPS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY COOL AS
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE MAKES PROGRESS WESTWARD. THE COMBINATION OF MORE
CLOUD COVER AND MORE PRECIPITATION...ALONG WITH LOWER HEIGHTS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THIS. BY SATURDAY...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MAY BE
BISECTING THE REGION FROM NW-SE...THUS YIELDING NOTABLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AT LEAST FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY THE
BATTLE BETWEEN LARGE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST TRYING TO BUILD INTO
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...WHILE TROUGH OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST DEEPENS
WHILE CLOSING OFF AND CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT IT WILL SET UP CLOSE
ENOUGH TO COAST TO PUSH BACK DOOR FRONT THROUGH AND WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BEFORE LIKELY WEAKENING AND ALLOWING
MORE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE TO BE FELT BY TUES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA IF WEAK/SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER WEDGE IS IN
PLACE EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE MIXING OUT OVER THE EAST.  WHILE
SURFACE WEDGE FRONT MAY BE WELL TO THE SOUTH DURING MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD...WITH STRONGEST SOUTHWARD PUSH ON SATURDAY...THE 850
BOUNDARY AND MOST LIKELY TRACK FOR UPPER S/WV ENERGY FROM THE NW IS
LIKELY TO BE RIGHT OVER THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA...AND THUS GOOD
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD.  TIMING
MOST LIKELY WINDOWS REMAINS TRICKY...AS MANY OF THESE WAVES ARE
STRONGLY INFLUENCE BY CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES THAT WILL DEVELOP WELL
UPSTREAM. LIKE THE TRENDS OVERALL THAT 12Z GFS IS TAKING...NOT ONLY
WITH RETURN TO SHARPER AMPLITUDE PATTERN...BUT IDEA OF TWO DISTINCT
WAVES HEADING FOR THE WESTERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA...ONE
SATURDAY AND ANOTHER ONE SUNDAY. EXACT TIMES MAY HELP DETERMINE IF
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY...WHICH WOULD LIKELY BE LIMITED TO
THE FAR WEST NEAR EDGE OF WEDGE BOUNDARY...BUT PERHAPS THE BIGGER
CONCERN IS RAINFALL THAT IS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE SAME AREAS AT LEAST
A COUPLE OF DAYS IN A ROW.

THERE COULD BE ANOTHER WAVE FOR MONDAY...BUT AS RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD IN AND TROUGH TO THE EAST AND ASSOCIATED WEDGE WEAKEN WHAT MAY
TEND TO OCCUR IS MORE DIURNAL POP-UP CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE BOUNDARY IN OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA
AS THE ATMOS DESTABILIZES MORE. BY TUESDAY THE SUPPORT TO KEEP WEDGE
IN PLACE SHOULD BE WEAKENING AS TROUGH LIFTS AND SFC HIGH SHIFTS
MORE EAST OF THE AREA...AND OVERALL IT LOOKS A LITTLE DRIER...BUT
NOT SURE ALL POPS CAN BE REMOVED.

GIVEN PATTERN WE`VE BEEN IN...REALLY DON`T HAVE CONFIDENCE TO DRY IT
OUT OR WARM IT UP TOO FAST...SO WILL LEAN TOWARD STRONGER INFLUENCE
OF THE WEDGE THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIP...WHICH WILL HELP STRENGTHEN THE WEDGE TOO.  UNDERCUT EVEN
COOLER ECMWF A LITTLE BIT FOR HIGHS...WITH A BIT MORE WARMING FOR
TUESDAY. BUT IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST THINGS MAY BE ABLE TO WARM UP VERY
QUICKLY A DAY OR TWO EARLIER THAN THIS IF THE WEDGE CAN BREAK AND
SOME OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE BIG UPPER RIDGE CAN BE REALIZED.  THIS
WILL EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP FOR OUR ENTIRE
AREA...BUT AM THINKING IT WILL NOT COME UNTIL MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

ACTIVE AND VARIABLE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THIS TAF PERIOD.
EARLY CONVECTION WITHERED ON THE VINE AS IT MOVED OFF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND HELPED STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE FOR A BIT. HOWEVER...
LATEST ANALYSES INDICATE INSTABILITY IS RECOVERING AND MESO MODELS
DO SHOW SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. EASTERN
AREAS ARE ON THE FRINGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING DOWN THE COAST
WHERE THERE WAS EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING. BELIEVE
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR BY ISSUANCE TIME AND WILL USE
VICINITY TO COVER EXPECTED SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT. CONDITIONS
WILL DIP DOWN WITH ANY PRECIPITATION BUT FEEL A TEMPO GROUP WILL
BE TOO HEAVY HANDED SO WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF LOWER CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER TOUGH CALL FOR FOG/LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT.
INDICATIONS IN MESO RH FIELDS ARE THAT IFR/LIFR WILL BE LESS
WIDESPREAD SO WILL TRY TO CONFINE LOW CONDITIONS TO A SMALLER PERIOD
TOWARD DAYBREAK...JUST IN TIME TO MENTION SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY WITH THE NEXT WAVE OF ENERGY ENTERING FROM THE WEST. WINDS
WILL NOT BE PROBLEMATIC FOR AVIATION PURPOSES THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION...

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH PERIODICALLY AND
INTERACTING WITH A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DUE
TO THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR...EXPECT STRATUS AND FOG
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR MOST PRONOUNCED
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 9AM EACH DAY. MODELS ARE INDICATED THAT A DEEPER
EASTERLY SORT OF WIND FLOW WILL SETUP FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THIS SUGGEST THAT LOW CIGS MAY PERSIST EVEN DURING THE DAYTIME
PERIODS...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND DUE TO MOISTURE BANKING UP AGAINST THE
EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...JH/PM
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...MBS



000
FXUS61 KRNK 201719
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
119 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACKING EAST AND SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE BOUNDARY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
REGION EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 955 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PUSH SE OUT OF THE MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE REGION INTO THE BLUE RIDGE ATTM AND EXPECT THIS AXIS TO
PERSIST UNTIL PERHAPS TOPPING THE FOOTHILLS IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO. THIS DESPITE LACK OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE SHRA/TSRA
COMPLEX AS FEED OF BETTER CAPES AND THETA-E ADVECTION OFF TO THE
WEST PROVIDING SUPPORT. THIS AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE WESTERN SLOPES AND ALONG
THE RESIDUAL SURFACE FRONT THAT HAS BACKDOORED SW INTO SW VA EARLY
THIS MORNING.

ALTHOUGH EXPECTING THIS PRECIP TO FADE...COMBINATION OF EARLY
CLOUDS/SHRA OVER THE WEST AND LINGERING FOG/STRATUS IN THE EASTERN
WEDGE WILL MAKE THINGS TRICKY IN REGARDS TO POSSIBLE RENEWED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. MOST EARLIER GUIDANCE AND CURRENT SHORT TERM
SOLUTIONS WANT TO REDEVELOP TSRA ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE BEFORE
SLIDING THIS EAST INTO EARLY EVENING AS THE TROUGH AXIS LIFTS NE.
HOWEVER THE LATEST HRRR ONLY SHOWS ISOLATED COVERAGE BLUE RIDGE
AFTER CURRENT SHRA FIZZLES WHILE THE 12Z NAM SLOWER IN HOLDING OFF
MOST NEW CONVECTION UNTIL LATE OR EARLY EVENING EAST WITH SOME
WEAK CAPPING ALOFT UNDER RESIDUAL CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
CURRENT COVERAGE. THUS HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWN SOME IN THE FAR
WEST AND TRIMMED LIKELYS DOWN BLUE RIDGE BEHIND THE ONGOING
COVERAGE BEFORE BEEFING UP OUT EAST MID/LATE AFTERNOON AS CAPES
RECOVER LATE TO 1-2K J/KG. HIGH TEMPS WILL AGAIN GET OFF TO A
SLOW START IN SPOTS WITH LATE DAY HIGHS MOST SPOTS PENDING ADDED
SHRA/TSRA WITH PERHAPS THE FAR WEST BEING THE WARMEST WITH MORE
SUN EARLIER BEHIND THE CURRENT COVERAGE.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES WITH LOBE OF VORTICITY TRAILING SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS FEATURE HAS RESULTED IN A PERSISTENT AREA OF LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS OF 08Z/4AM...NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS WERE OCCURRING FROM WESTERN PA INTO EASTERN OHIO AND
NORTHEAST KY. OUTFLOW FROM THIS COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY.

MODELS DO NOT SEEM OVERLY CONFIDENT THIS OUTFLOW WILL MAKE IT
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...INDICATING WEAKENING AND A GRADUAL DEMISE OF
ACTIVITY. MATTER OF FACT THE SYNOPTIC MODELS DON`T PRODUCE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF RAINFALL AT ALL ACROSS OUR CWA...MOS POPS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 40 PERCENT.

ATTM PREFER NOT TO IGNORE THE OBVIOUS...WHICH IS A MODEST LOOKING
UPPER LEVEL TROF...ASSOCIATED WITH A HEALTHY LOOKING AREA OF
SHRA/TSRA...THE OUTFLOW OF WHICH SHOULD PASS THROUGH OUR FORECAST
AREA TODAY. THE ONLY THING THAT KEPT ME FROM GOING WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS IS THE POTENTIAL TIMING OF THE ACTIVITY AS IT
CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS. BASED ON CURRENT PROGRESSION...SHOWERS WILL
MOVE INTO THE WV MOUNTAINS DURING THE MORNING...THEN PROGRESS EAST
REACHING THE BLUE RIDGE TOWARD NOON...THEN EAST OF THE MTNS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS EARLIER SORT OF TIMING SUGGESTS DEBRIS CLOUDS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE CWA EARLY AND LIMIT FULL INSOLATION THUS
LIMITING INSTABILITY.

THAT SAID...THINK AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT IN A WEAKENED STATE. GREATEST
COVERAGE WILL BE FROM THE VIRGINIAS NORTHWARD CLOSER TO THE UPPER
SUPPORT FROM THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...THE STRONGER DYNAMIC LIFT
MOVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO PA/NY. HAVE PLACED THE HIGHEST
POPS ACROSS WV/VA CLOSER TO THE SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER TROF...AND
WHERE THE OUTFLOW WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF MAKING IT OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND HELP FOCUS RENEWED DEEP CONVECTION. FARTHER
SOUTH...FROM THE VA/NC BORDER SOUTHWARD...COVERAGE WILL BE LESS
AND MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE. WITH LESS COVERAGE COMES THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE SUN. MORE SUN SUGGESTS WARMER
TEMPERATURES...AND WARMER TEMEPERATURES WILL YIELD GREATER
INSTABILITY PROVIDING STRONGER UPDRAFTS. AS SUCH CAN`T RULE OUT A
STRONG PULSE STORM OR TWO...ESPECIALLY WHERE MORE SUN
MATERIALIZES.

WENT BLO MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS WHERE
MORE CLOUD COVER IS ANTICIPATED TODAY. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WHERE MORE SUN IS ANTICIPATED.

PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING AN END TO MOST OF THE STORM
ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FOGGY NIGHT WITH
AREAS OF FOG AND PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. IF SKIES CAN COMPLETELY CLEAR...THIS WOULD BE MOST IDEAL FOR
RADIATION FOG. THERE WERE SEVERAL REPORTS IN THE NEW RIVER VALLEY
WITH DENSE FOG EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THINK IT WILL BE A REPEAT
AGAIN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN DURING THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A STRONG UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
SITUATED ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A DEEPENING UPPER
LOW/TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. OUR AREA
OF THE COUNTRY WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE TWO WITHIN NW-SE
ORIENTED MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT EITHER OVER...OR VERY CLOSE TO THE REGION BY THE
START OF THE WEEKEND.

THE ABOVE SCENARIO POINTS TOWARD A PERIOD WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY AND NIGHT...AND SOME AFTERNOON AND
EVENING STORMS. WHAT IS A LITTLE HARDER TO NAIL DOWN WILL BE THE
WINDOWS OF OPPORTUNITY FOR LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION IN ASSOCIATION WITH PERIODICAL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS HEADING SOUTHEAST ALONG THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THROUGH OUR
REGION. EACH MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE A DIFFERENT TAKE ON TIMING AND
TRACK.

EYEBALLING A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARD THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS ONE POTENTIAL TIME THAT WOULD WARRANT
HIGHER POPS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE REGION. ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY MAY BE FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS MAINLY
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. FINALLY...SATURDAY NIGHT MAY
PROVE TO BE A THIRD OPPORTUNITY FOR ALL OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS.

AT THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE IS NOT THERE TO OFFER A CATEGORICAL...75
PERCENT OR HIGHER...CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR ANY ONE OF THE THREE
SCENARIOS LISTED ABOVE. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE...OR ADD...A
FORECAST OF LIKELY POPS TO THE FIRST AND SECOND SCENARIOS. FOR THE
THIRD SCENARIO...WILL OFFER A FORECAST JUST SHY OF LIKELY POPS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY COOL AS
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE MAKES PROGRESS WESTWARD. THE COMBINATION OF MORE
CLOUD COVER AND MORE PRECIPITATION...ALONG WITH LOWER HEIGHTS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THIS. BY SATURDAY...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MAY BE
BISECTING THE REGION FROM NW-SE...THUS YIELDING NOTABLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AT LEAST FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY THE
BATTLE BETWEEN LARGE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST TRYING TO BUILD INTO
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...WHILE TROUGH OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST DEEPENS
WHILE CLOSING OFF AND CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT IT WILL SET UP CLOSE
ENOUGH TO COAST TO PUSH BACK DOOR FRONT THROUGH AND WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BEFORE LIKELY WEAKENING AND ALLOWING
MORE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE TO BE FELT BY TUES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA IF WEAK/SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER WEDGE IS IN
PLACE EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE MIXING OUT OVER THE EAST.  WHILE
SURFACE WEDGE FRONT MAY BE WELL TO THE SOUTH DURING MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD...WITH STRONGEST SOUTHWARD PUSH ON SATURDAY...THE 850
BOUNDARY AND MOST LIKELY TRACK FOR UPPER S/WV ENERGY FROM THE NW IS
LIKELY TO BE RIGHT OVER THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA...AND THUS GOOD
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD.  TIMING
MOST LIKELY WINDOWS REMAINS TRICKY...AS MANY OF THESE WAVES ARE
STRONGLY INFLUENCE BY CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES THAT WILL DEVELOP WELL
UPSTREAM. LIKE THE TRENDS OVERALL THAT 12Z GFS IS TAKING...NOT ONLY
WITH RETURN TO SHARPER AMPLITUDE PATTERN...BUT IDEA OF TWO DISTINCT
WAVES HEADING FOR THE WESTERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA...ONE
SATURDAY AND ANOTHER ONE SUNDAY. EXACT TIMES MAY HELP DETERMINE IF
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY...WHICH WOULD LIKELY BE LIMITED TO
THE FAR WEST NEAR EDGE OF WEDGE BOUNDARY...BUT PERHAPS THE BIGGER
CONCERN IS RAINFALL THAT IS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE SAME AREAS AT LEAST
A COUPLE OF DAYS IN A ROW.

THERE COULD BE ANOTHER WAVE FOR MONDAY...BUT AS RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD IN AND TROUGH TO THE EAST AND ASSOCIATED WEDGE WEAKEN WHAT MAY
TEND TO OCCUR IS MORE DIURNAL POP-UP CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE BOUNDARY IN OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA
AS THE ATMOS DESTABILIZES MORE. BY TUESDAY THE SUPPORT TO KEEP WEDGE
IN PLACE SHOULD BE WEAKENING AS TROUGH LIFTS AND SFC HIGH SHIFTS
MORE EAST OF THE AREA...AND OVERALL IT LOOKS A LITTLE DRIER...BUT
NOT SURE ALL POPS CAN BE REMOVED.

GIVEN PATTERN WE`VE BEEN IN...REALLY DON`T HAVE CONFIDENCE TO DRY IT
OUT OR WARM IT UP TOO FAST...SO WILL LEAN TOWARD STRONGER INFLUENCE
OF THE WEDGE THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIP...WHICH WILL HELP STRENGTHEN THE WEDGE TOO.  UNDERCUT EVEN
COOLER ECMWF A LITTLE BIT FOR HIGHS...WITH A BIT MORE WARMING FOR
TUESDAY. BUT IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST THINGS MAY BE ABLE TO WARM UP VERY
QUICKLY A DAY OR TWO EARLIER THAN THIS IF THE WEDGE CAN BREAK AND
SOME OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE BIG UPPER RIDGE CAN BE REALIZED.  THIS
WILL EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP FOR OUR ENTIRE
AREA...BUT AM THINKING IT WILL NOT COME UNTIL MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

ACTIVE AND VARIABLE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THIS TAF PERIOD.
EARLY CONVECTION WITHERED ON THE VINE AS IT MOVED OFF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND HELPED STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE FOR A BIT. HOWEVER...
LATEST ANALYSES INDICATE INSTABILITY IS RECOVERING AND MESO MODELS
DO SHOW SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. EASTERN
AREAS ARE ON THE FRINGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING DOWN THE COAST
WHERE THERE WAS EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING. BELIEVE
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR BY ISSUANCE TIME AND WILL USE
VICINITY TO COVER EXPECTED SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT. CONDITIONS
WILL DIP DOWN WITH ANY PRECIPITATION BUT FEEL A TEMPO GROUP WILL
BE TOO HEAVY HANDED SO WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF LOWER CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER TOUGH CALL FOR FOG/LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT.
INDICATIONS IN MESO RH FIELDS ARE THAT IFR/LIFR WILL BE LESS
WIDESPREAD SO WILL TRY TO CONFINE LOW CONDITIONS TO A SMALLER PERIOD
TOWARD DAYBREAK...JUST IN TIME TO MENTION SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY WITH THE NEXT WAVE OF ENERGY ENTERING FROM THE WEST. WINDS
WILL NOT BE PROBLEMATIC FOR AVIATION PURPOSES THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION...

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH PERIODICALLY AND
INTERACTING WITH A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DUE
TO THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR...EXPECT STRATUS AND FOG
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR MOST PRONOUNCED
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 9AM EACH DAY. MODELS ARE INDICATED THAT A DEEPER
EASTERLY SORT OF WIND FLOW WILL SETUP FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THIS SUGGEST THAT LOW CIGS MAY PERSIST EVEN DURING THE DAYTIME
PERIODS...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND DUE TO MOISTURE BANKING UP AGAINST THE
EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...JH/PM
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...MBS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 201414
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1014 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACKING EAST AND SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE BOUNDARY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
REGION EACH DAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 955 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PUSH SE OUT OF THE MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE REGION INTO THE BLUE RIDGE ATTM AND EXPECT THIS AXIS TO
PERSIST UNTIL PERHAPS TOPPING THE FOOTHILLS IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO. THIS DESPITE LACK OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE SHRA/TSRA
COMPLEX AS FEED OF BETTER CAPES AND THETA-E ADVECTION OFF TO THE
WEST PROVIDING SUPPORT. THIS AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE WESTERN SLOPES AND ALONG
THE RESIDUAL SURFACE FRONT THAT HAS BACKDOORED SW INTO SW VA EARLY
THIS MORNING.

ALTHOUGH EXPECTING THIS PRECIP TO FADE...COMBINATION OF EARLY
CLOUDS/SHRA OVER THE WEST AND LINGERING FOG/STRATUS IN THE EASTERN
WEDGE WILL MAKE THINGS TRICKY IN REGARDS TO POSSIBLE RENEWED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. MOST EARLIER GUIDANCE AND CURRENT SHORT TERM
SOLUTIONS WANT TO REDEVELOP TSRA ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE BEFORE
SLIDING THIS EAST INTO EARLY EVENING AS THE TROUGH AXIS LIFTS NE.
HOWEVER THE LATEST HRRR ONLY SHOWS ISOLATED COVERAGE BLUE RIDGE
AFTER CURRENT SHRA FIZZLES WHILE THE 12Z NAM SLOWER IN HOLDING OFF
MOST NEW CONVECTION UNTIL LATE OR EARLY EVENING EAST WITH SOME
WEAK CAPPING ALOFT UNDER RESIDUAL CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
CURRENT COVERAGE. THUS HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWN SOME IN THE FAR
WEST AND TRIMMED LIKELYS DOWN BLUE RIDGE BEHIND THE ONGOING
COVERAGE BEFORE BEEFING UP OUT EAST MID/LATE AFTERNOON AS CAPES
RECOVER LATE TO 1-2K J/KG. HIGH TEMPS WILL AGAIN GET OFF TO A
SLOW START IN SPOTS WITH LATE DAY HIGHS MOST SPOTS PENDING ADDED
SHRA/TSRA WITH PERHAPS THE FAR WEST BEING THE WARMEST WITH MORE
SUN EARLIER BEHIND THE CURRENT COVERAGE.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES WITH LOBE OF VORTICITY TRAILING SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS FEATURE HAS RESULTED IN A PERSISTENT AREA OF LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS OF 08Z/4AM...NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS WERE OCCURRING FROM WESTERN PA INTO EASTERN OHIO AND
NORTHEAST KY. OUTFLOW FROM THIS COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY.

MODELS DO NOT SEEM OVERLY CONFIDENT THIS OUTFLOW WILL MAKE IT
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...INDICATING WEAKENING AND A GRADUAL DEMISE OF
ACTIVITY. MATTER OF FACT THE SYNOPTIC MODELS DON`T PRODUCE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF RAINFALL AT ALL ACROSS OUR CWA...MOS POPS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 40 PERCENT.

ATTM PREFER NOT TO IGNORE THE OBVIOUS...WHICH IS A MODEST LOOKING
UPPER LEVEL TROF...ASSOCIATED WITH A HEALTHY LOOKING AREA OF
SHRA/TSRA...THE OUTFLOW OF WHICH SHOULD PASS THROUGH OUR FORECAST
AREA TODAY. THE ONLY THING THAT KEPT ME FROM GOING WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS IS THE POTENTIAL TIMING OF THE ACTIVITY AS IT
CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS. BASED ON CURRENT PROGRESSION...SHOWERS WILL
MOVE INTO THE WV MOUNTAINS DURING THE MORNING...THEN PROGRESS EAST
REACHING THE BLUE RIDGE TOWARD NOON...THEN EAST OF THE MTNS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS EARLIER SORT OF TIMING SUGGESTS DEBRIS CLOUDS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE CWA EARLY AND LIMIT FULL INSOLATION THUS
LIMITING INSTABILITY.

THAT SAID...THINK AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT IN A WEAKENED STATE. GREATEST
COVERAGE WILL BE FROM THE VIRGINIAS NORTHWARD CLOSER TO THE UPPER
SUPPORT FROM THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...THE STRONGER DYNAMIC LIFT
MOVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO PA/NY. HAVE PLACED THE HIGHEST
POPS ACROSS WV/VA CLOSER TO THE SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER TROF...AND
WHERE THE OUTFLOW WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF MAKING IT OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND HELP FOCUS RENEWED DEEP CONVECTION. FARTHER
SOUTH...FROM THE VA/NC BORDER SOUTHWARD...COVERAGE WILL BE LESS
AND MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE. WITH LESS COVERAGE COMES THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE SUN. MORE SUN SUGGESTS WARMER
TEMPERATURES...AND WARMER TEMEPERATURES WILL YIELD GREATER
INSTABILITY PROVIDING STRONGER UPDRAFTS. AS SUCH CAN`T RULE OUT A
STRONG PULSE STORM OR TWO...ESPECIALLY WHERE MORE SUN
MATERIALIZES.

WENT BLO MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS WHERE
MORE CLOUD COVER IS ANTICIPATED TODAY. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WHERE MORE SUN IS ANTICIPATED.

PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING AN END TO MOST OF THE STORM
ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FOGGY NIGHT WITH
AREAS OF FOG AND PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. IF SKIES CAN COMPLETELY CLEAR...THIS WOULD BE MOST IDEAL FOR
RADIATION FOG. THERE WERE SEVERAL REPORTS IN THE NEW RIVER VALLEY
WITH DENSE FOG EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THINK IT WILL BE A REPEAT
AGAIN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN DURING THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A STRONG UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
SITUATED ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A DEEPENING UPPER
LOW/TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. OUR AREA
OF THE COUNTRY WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE TWO WITHIN NW-SE
ORIENTED MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT EITHER OVER...OR VERY CLOSE TO THE REGION BY THE
START OF THE WEEKEND.

THE ABOVE SCENARIO POINTS TOWARD A PERIOD WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY AND NIGHT...AND SOME AFTERNOON AND
EVENING STORMS. WHAT IS A LITTLE HARDER TO NAIL DOWN WILL BE THE
WINDOWS OF OPPORTUNITY FOR LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION IN ASSOCIATION WITH PERIODICAL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS HEADING SOUTHEAST ALONG THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THROUGH OUR
REGION. EACH MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE A DIFFERENT TAKE ON TIMING AND
TRACK.

EYEBALLING A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARD THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS ONE POTENTIAL TIME THAT WOULD WARRANT
HIGHER POPS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE REGION. ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY MAY BE FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS MAINLY
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. FINALLY...SATURDAY NIGHT MAY
PROVE TO BE A THIRD OPPORTUNITY FOR ALL OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS.

AT THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE IS NOT THERE TO OFFER A CATEGORICAL...75
PERCENT OR HIGHER...CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR ANY ONE OF THE THREE
SCENARIOS LISTED ABOVE. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE...OR ADD...A
FORECAST OF LIKELY POPS TO THE FIRST AND SECOND SCENARIOS. FOR THE
THIRD SCENARIO...WILL OFFER A FORECAST JUST SHY OF LIKELY POPS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY COOL AS
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE MAKES PROGRESS WESTWARD. THE COMBINATION OF MORE
CLOUD COVER AND MORE PRECIPITATION...ALONG WITH LOWER HEIGHTS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THIS. BY SATURDAY...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MAY BE
BISECTING THE REGION FROM NW-SE...THUS YIELDING NOTABLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AT LEAST FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY THE
BATTLE BETWEEN LARGE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST TRYING TO BUILD INTO
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...WHILE TROUGH OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST DEEPENS
WHILE CLOSING OFF AND CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT IT WILL SET UP CLOSE
ENOUGH TO COAST TO PUSH BACK DOOR FRONT THROUGH AND WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BEFORE LIKELY WEAKENING AND ALLOWING
MORE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE TO BE FELT BY TUES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA IF WEAK/SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER WEDGE IS IN
PLACE EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE MIXING OUT OVER THE EAST.  WHILE
SURFACE WEDGE FRONT MAY BE WELL TO THE SOUTH DURING MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD...WITH STRONGEST SOUTHWARD PUSH ON SATURDAY...THE 850
BOUNDARY AND MOST LIKELY TRACK FOR UPPER S/WV ENERGY FROM THE NW IS
LIKELY TO BE RIGHT OVER THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA...AND THUS GOOD
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD.  TIMING
MOST LIKELY WINDOWS REMAINS TRICKY...AS MANY OF THESE WAVES ARE
STRONGLY INFLUENCE BY CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES THAT WILL DEVELOP WELL
UPSTREAM. LIKE THE TRENDS OVERALL THAT 12Z GFS IS TAKING...NOT ONLY
WITH RETURN TO SHARPER AMPLITUDE PATTERN...BUT IDEA OF TWO DISTINCT
WAVES HEADING FOR THE WESTERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA...ONE
SATURDAY AND ANOTHER ONE SUNDAY. EXACT TIMES MAY HELP DETERMINE IF
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY...WHICH WOULD LIKELY BE LIMITED TO
THE FAR WEST NEAR EDGE OF WEDGE BOUNDARY...BUT PERHAPS THE BIGGER
CONCERN IS RAINFALL THAT IS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE SAME AREAS AT LEAST
A COUPLE OF DAYS IN A ROW.

THERE COULD BE ANOTHER WAVE FOR MONDAY...BUT AS RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD IN AND TROUGH TO THE EAST AND ASSOCIATED WEDGE WEAKEN WHAT MAY
TEND TO OCCUR IS MORE DIURNAL POP-UP CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE BOUNDARY IN OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA
AS THE ATMOS DESTABILIZES MORE. BY TUESDAY THE SUPPORT TO KEEP WEDGE
IN PLACE SHOULD BE WEAKENING AS TROUGH LIFTS AND SFC HIGH SHIFTS
MORE EAST OF THE AREA...AND OVERALL IT LOOKS A LITTLE DRIER...BUT
NOT SURE ALL POPS CAN BE REMOVED.

GIVEN PATTERN WE`VE BEEN IN...REALLY DON`T HAVE CONFIDENCE TO DRY IT
OUT OR WARM IT UP TOO FAST...SO WILL LEAN TOWARD STRONGER INFLUENCE
OF THE WEDGE THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIP...WHICH WILL HELP STRENGTHEN THE WEDGE TOO.  UNDERCUT EVEN
COOLER ECMWF A LITTLE BIT FOR HIGHS...WITH A BIT MORE WARMING FOR
TUESDAY. BUT IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST THINGS MAY BE ABLE TO WARM UP VERY
QUICKLY A DAY OR TWO EARLIER THAN THIS IF THE WEDGE CAN BREAK AND
SOME OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE BIG UPPER RIDGE CAN BE REALIZED.  THIS
WILL EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP FOR OUR ENTIRE
AREA...BUT AM THINKING IT WILL NOT COME UNTIL MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

BKN LINE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
SHRA/TSRA WILL PASS THROUGH THE MTNS THIS MORNING CROSSING
BLF/LWB/BCB BETWEEN 12-15Z/8-11AM...THEN MOVE EAST OF THE MTNS
AROUND MID-DAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM VCNTY OF ROA/LYH/DAN DURING THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TODAY...AND INTO NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY. THE TROF AXIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING
AND INTO THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON.

STORMINESS SHOULD CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA BY 22Z/6PM THIS EVENING
WITH ACTIVITY MOVING EAST. AREAS OF FOG WILL THEN RE-DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF MVFR AND POTENTIAL FOR IFR
VSBYS AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING.


EXTENDED AVIATION... WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
UNSETTLED AND HIGHLY VARIABLE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A
STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS STALLED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH PERIODICALLY
RESULTING IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DUE TO THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR...EXPECT STRATUS AND
FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR MOST
PRONOUNCED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 9AM EACH DAY. MODELS ARE INDICATED
THAT A DEEPER EASTERLY SORT OF WIND FLOW WILL SETUP FOR THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS SUGGEST THAT LOW CIGS MAY PERSIST EVEN
DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD
MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND DUE TO MOISTURE
BANKING UP AGAINST THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...JH/PM
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...PM



000
FXUS61 KRNK 201414
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1014 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACKING EAST AND SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE BOUNDARY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
REGION EACH DAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 955 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PUSH SE OUT OF THE MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE REGION INTO THE BLUE RIDGE ATTM AND EXPECT THIS AXIS TO
PERSIST UNTIL PERHAPS TOPPING THE FOOTHILLS IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO. THIS DESPITE LACK OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE SHRA/TSRA
COMPLEX AS FEED OF BETTER CAPES AND THETA-E ADVECTION OFF TO THE
WEST PROVIDING SUPPORT. THIS AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE WESTERN SLOPES AND ALONG
THE RESIDUAL SURFACE FRONT THAT HAS BACKDOORED SW INTO SW VA EARLY
THIS MORNING.

ALTHOUGH EXPECTING THIS PRECIP TO FADE...COMBINATION OF EARLY
CLOUDS/SHRA OVER THE WEST AND LINGERING FOG/STRATUS IN THE EASTERN
WEDGE WILL MAKE THINGS TRICKY IN REGARDS TO POSSIBLE RENEWED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. MOST EARLIER GUIDANCE AND CURRENT SHORT TERM
SOLUTIONS WANT TO REDEVELOP TSRA ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE BEFORE
SLIDING THIS EAST INTO EARLY EVENING AS THE TROUGH AXIS LIFTS NE.
HOWEVER THE LATEST HRRR ONLY SHOWS ISOLATED COVERAGE BLUE RIDGE
AFTER CURRENT SHRA FIZZLES WHILE THE 12Z NAM SLOWER IN HOLDING OFF
MOST NEW CONVECTION UNTIL LATE OR EARLY EVENING EAST WITH SOME
WEAK CAPPING ALOFT UNDER RESIDUAL CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
CURRENT COVERAGE. THUS HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWN SOME IN THE FAR
WEST AND TRIMMED LIKELYS DOWN BLUE RIDGE BEHIND THE ONGOING
COVERAGE BEFORE BEEFING UP OUT EAST MID/LATE AFTERNOON AS CAPES
RECOVER LATE TO 1-2K J/KG. HIGH TEMPS WILL AGAIN GET OFF TO A
SLOW START IN SPOTS WITH LATE DAY HIGHS MOST SPOTS PENDING ADDED
SHRA/TSRA WITH PERHAPS THE FAR WEST BEING THE WARMEST WITH MORE
SUN EARLIER BEHIND THE CURRENT COVERAGE.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES WITH LOBE OF VORTICITY TRAILING SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS FEATURE HAS RESULTED IN A PERSISTENT AREA OF LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS OF 08Z/4AM...NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS WERE OCCURRING FROM WESTERN PA INTO EASTERN OHIO AND
NORTHEAST KY. OUTFLOW FROM THIS COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY.

MODELS DO NOT SEEM OVERLY CONFIDENT THIS OUTFLOW WILL MAKE IT
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...INDICATING WEAKENING AND A GRADUAL DEMISE OF
ACTIVITY. MATTER OF FACT THE SYNOPTIC MODELS DON`T PRODUCE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF RAINFALL AT ALL ACROSS OUR CWA...MOS POPS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 40 PERCENT.

ATTM PREFER NOT TO IGNORE THE OBVIOUS...WHICH IS A MODEST LOOKING
UPPER LEVEL TROF...ASSOCIATED WITH A HEALTHY LOOKING AREA OF
SHRA/TSRA...THE OUTFLOW OF WHICH SHOULD PASS THROUGH OUR FORECAST
AREA TODAY. THE ONLY THING THAT KEPT ME FROM GOING WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS IS THE POTENTIAL TIMING OF THE ACTIVITY AS IT
CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS. BASED ON CURRENT PROGRESSION...SHOWERS WILL
MOVE INTO THE WV MOUNTAINS DURING THE MORNING...THEN PROGRESS EAST
REACHING THE BLUE RIDGE TOWARD NOON...THEN EAST OF THE MTNS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS EARLIER SORT OF TIMING SUGGESTS DEBRIS CLOUDS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE CWA EARLY AND LIMIT FULL INSOLATION THUS
LIMITING INSTABILITY.

THAT SAID...THINK AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT IN A WEAKENED STATE. GREATEST
COVERAGE WILL BE FROM THE VIRGINIAS NORTHWARD CLOSER TO THE UPPER
SUPPORT FROM THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...THE STRONGER DYNAMIC LIFT
MOVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO PA/NY. HAVE PLACED THE HIGHEST
POPS ACROSS WV/VA CLOSER TO THE SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER TROF...AND
WHERE THE OUTFLOW WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF MAKING IT OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND HELP FOCUS RENEWED DEEP CONVECTION. FARTHER
SOUTH...FROM THE VA/NC BORDER SOUTHWARD...COVERAGE WILL BE LESS
AND MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE. WITH LESS COVERAGE COMES THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE SUN. MORE SUN SUGGESTS WARMER
TEMPERATURES...AND WARMER TEMEPERATURES WILL YIELD GREATER
INSTABILITY PROVIDING STRONGER UPDRAFTS. AS SUCH CAN`T RULE OUT A
STRONG PULSE STORM OR TWO...ESPECIALLY WHERE MORE SUN
MATERIALIZES.

WENT BLO MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS WHERE
MORE CLOUD COVER IS ANTICIPATED TODAY. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WHERE MORE SUN IS ANTICIPATED.

PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING AN END TO MOST OF THE STORM
ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FOGGY NIGHT WITH
AREAS OF FOG AND PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. IF SKIES CAN COMPLETELY CLEAR...THIS WOULD BE MOST IDEAL FOR
RADIATION FOG. THERE WERE SEVERAL REPORTS IN THE NEW RIVER VALLEY
WITH DENSE FOG EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THINK IT WILL BE A REPEAT
AGAIN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN DURING THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A STRONG UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
SITUATED ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A DEEPENING UPPER
LOW/TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. OUR AREA
OF THE COUNTRY WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE TWO WITHIN NW-SE
ORIENTED MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT EITHER OVER...OR VERY CLOSE TO THE REGION BY THE
START OF THE WEEKEND.

THE ABOVE SCENARIO POINTS TOWARD A PERIOD WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY AND NIGHT...AND SOME AFTERNOON AND
EVENING STORMS. WHAT IS A LITTLE HARDER TO NAIL DOWN WILL BE THE
WINDOWS OF OPPORTUNITY FOR LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION IN ASSOCIATION WITH PERIODICAL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS HEADING SOUTHEAST ALONG THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THROUGH OUR
REGION. EACH MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE A DIFFERENT TAKE ON TIMING AND
TRACK.

EYEBALLING A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARD THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS ONE POTENTIAL TIME THAT WOULD WARRANT
HIGHER POPS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE REGION. ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY MAY BE FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS MAINLY
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. FINALLY...SATURDAY NIGHT MAY
PROVE TO BE A THIRD OPPORTUNITY FOR ALL OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS.

AT THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE IS NOT THERE TO OFFER A CATEGORICAL...75
PERCENT OR HIGHER...CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR ANY ONE OF THE THREE
SCENARIOS LISTED ABOVE. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE...OR ADD...A
FORECAST OF LIKELY POPS TO THE FIRST AND SECOND SCENARIOS. FOR THE
THIRD SCENARIO...WILL OFFER A FORECAST JUST SHY OF LIKELY POPS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY COOL AS
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE MAKES PROGRESS WESTWARD. THE COMBINATION OF MORE
CLOUD COVER AND MORE PRECIPITATION...ALONG WITH LOWER HEIGHTS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THIS. BY SATURDAY...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MAY BE
BISECTING THE REGION FROM NW-SE...THUS YIELDING NOTABLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AT LEAST FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY THE
BATTLE BETWEEN LARGE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST TRYING TO BUILD INTO
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...WHILE TROUGH OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST DEEPENS
WHILE CLOSING OFF AND CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT IT WILL SET UP CLOSE
ENOUGH TO COAST TO PUSH BACK DOOR FRONT THROUGH AND WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BEFORE LIKELY WEAKENING AND ALLOWING
MORE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE TO BE FELT BY TUES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA IF WEAK/SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER WEDGE IS IN
PLACE EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE MIXING OUT OVER THE EAST.  WHILE
SURFACE WEDGE FRONT MAY BE WELL TO THE SOUTH DURING MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD...WITH STRONGEST SOUTHWARD PUSH ON SATURDAY...THE 850
BOUNDARY AND MOST LIKELY TRACK FOR UPPER S/WV ENERGY FROM THE NW IS
LIKELY TO BE RIGHT OVER THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA...AND THUS GOOD
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD.  TIMING
MOST LIKELY WINDOWS REMAINS TRICKY...AS MANY OF THESE WAVES ARE
STRONGLY INFLUENCE BY CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES THAT WILL DEVELOP WELL
UPSTREAM. LIKE THE TRENDS OVERALL THAT 12Z GFS IS TAKING...NOT ONLY
WITH RETURN TO SHARPER AMPLITUDE PATTERN...BUT IDEA OF TWO DISTINCT
WAVES HEADING FOR THE WESTERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA...ONE
SATURDAY AND ANOTHER ONE SUNDAY. EXACT TIMES MAY HELP DETERMINE IF
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY...WHICH WOULD LIKELY BE LIMITED TO
THE FAR WEST NEAR EDGE OF WEDGE BOUNDARY...BUT PERHAPS THE BIGGER
CONCERN IS RAINFALL THAT IS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE SAME AREAS AT LEAST
A COUPLE OF DAYS IN A ROW.

THERE COULD BE ANOTHER WAVE FOR MONDAY...BUT AS RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD IN AND TROUGH TO THE EAST AND ASSOCIATED WEDGE WEAKEN WHAT MAY
TEND TO OCCUR IS MORE DIURNAL POP-UP CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE BOUNDARY IN OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA
AS THE ATMOS DESTABILIZES MORE. BY TUESDAY THE SUPPORT TO KEEP WEDGE
IN PLACE SHOULD BE WEAKENING AS TROUGH LIFTS AND SFC HIGH SHIFTS
MORE EAST OF THE AREA...AND OVERALL IT LOOKS A LITTLE DRIER...BUT
NOT SURE ALL POPS CAN BE REMOVED.

GIVEN PATTERN WE`VE BEEN IN...REALLY DON`T HAVE CONFIDENCE TO DRY IT
OUT OR WARM IT UP TOO FAST...SO WILL LEAN TOWARD STRONGER INFLUENCE
OF THE WEDGE THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIP...WHICH WILL HELP STRENGTHEN THE WEDGE TOO.  UNDERCUT EVEN
COOLER ECMWF A LITTLE BIT FOR HIGHS...WITH A BIT MORE WARMING FOR
TUESDAY. BUT IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST THINGS MAY BE ABLE TO WARM UP VERY
QUICKLY A DAY OR TWO EARLIER THAN THIS IF THE WEDGE CAN BREAK AND
SOME OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE BIG UPPER RIDGE CAN BE REALIZED.  THIS
WILL EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP FOR OUR ENTIRE
AREA...BUT AM THINKING IT WILL NOT COME UNTIL MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

BKN LINE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
SHRA/TSRA WILL PASS THROUGH THE MTNS THIS MORNING CROSSING
BLF/LWB/BCB BETWEEN 12-15Z/8-11AM...THEN MOVE EAST OF THE MTNS
AROUND MID-DAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM VCNTY OF ROA/LYH/DAN DURING THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TODAY...AND INTO NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY. THE TROF AXIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING
AND INTO THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON.

STORMINESS SHOULD CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA BY 22Z/6PM THIS EVENING
WITH ACTIVITY MOVING EAST. AREAS OF FOG WILL THEN RE-DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF MVFR AND POTENTIAL FOR IFR
VSBYS AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING.


EXTENDED AVIATION... WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
UNSETTLED AND HIGHLY VARIABLE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A
STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS STALLED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH PERIODICALLY
RESULTING IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DUE TO THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR...EXPECT STRATUS AND
FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR MOST
PRONOUNCED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 9AM EACH DAY. MODELS ARE INDICATED
THAT A DEEPER EASTERLY SORT OF WIND FLOW WILL SETUP FOR THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS SUGGEST THAT LOW CIGS MAY PERSIST EVEN
DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD
MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND DUE TO MOISTURE
BANKING UP AGAINST THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...JH/PM
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...PM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201405
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1005 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT SLOWLY PULLS NORTH INTO THE AREA TODAY...THEN REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WK SFC LO PRES OFFSHORE CONTS TO SLOLY MOVE E AND AWAY FM THE
MDATLC CST TDA. LINGERING FNTL BNDRY S OF THE FA THIS MRNG...W/
SFC HI PRES TO THE NNE...RESULTING IN CONTD SFC FLO FM THE ENE
ACRS THE FA (IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SFC LO PRES). REMNANT BNDRY
TO THE S PULLS SLOLY N INTO THE FA TDA AS WK SFC LO PRES INVOF
LAKES/UPR OH VLY APPROACHES FM THE WNW. ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION ALG
WK CDFNT AND ASSOCIATED W/ MID/UPR LVL S/W MOVING THROUGH ERN OH
VLY ATTM. DURG TDA...XPCG VRB CLDS TO PCLDY WX ACRS FA AFTER
MORNING ST ERODES OVER THE PIEDMONT AND FAR SE VA/NE NC. OTRW...FM
MIDDAY THROUGH AFTN/EVE HRS...SCT CONVECTION PSBL...ESP NRN
PORTION OF FA...AS SYS PASSES BY JUST TO THE N OF THE FA. HI TEMPS
FM THE L/M80S AT THE CST...TO M/U80S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE OVERALL PATTERN IS AGREED UPON IN THE MID RANGE PART OF THE
FORECAST AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SLIDES INTO THE
EAST AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MS VALLEY BUILDS
NORTHWARD...SETTING UP NW FLO ALOFT OVER OF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. HOWEVER...BEYOND THE THAT...THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MAKES THE TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION VERY UNCERTAIN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...A WK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE IN THE VICINITY SHOULD
BE SOME STATIONARY AND NRLY PARALLEL TO THE FLOW ALOFT AND COULD
ALSO BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. AT THIS POINT...WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY...WILL CONT TO LEAN MORE TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY WITH BEST
CHANCES IN THE PIEDMONT EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN AREA WIDE
IN LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT.

LO TEMPS TNGT FM THE M60S TO ARND 70F. HI TEMPS THU FM THE M80S AT
THE CST TO L90S INLAND. HI TEMPS FRI IN THE L/M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN NWLY
FLOW ALOFT...BUT DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE...LATE SUMMER NORMS TO BEGIN THE
EXTENDED BEFORE RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW DURING THE EXTENDED IS HIGHLIGHTED BY SPLIT/BLOCKY
FLOW OFF THE ERN CANADA AND NERN US COAST AND AMPLIFYING HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SRN CONUS. THIS PLACES THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION IN
NWLY FLOW ALOFT. ASSOCIATED BACK DOOR FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA SATURDAY MORNING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED OVER THE NE
WILL RIDGE SWWD ALONG THE COAST AND INTO CNTRL VA. NLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW INDICATED IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WILL DRIVE DEWPOINTS
DOWNWARD INTO THE MID 60S. HOWEVER...MODEL DERIVED PWATS REMAIN
AROUND 1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES. COMBINED WITH PERTURBATIONS IN THE NWLY
FLOW...WILL HAVE MNLY CLDY WX AND MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH
FOR POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM...ROUNDING THE RIDGE AND
DROPPING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT THRU THE WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO LOCATE OFF THE COAST. BLOCK WILL
REMAIN OFF THE NE COAST...BUT MOISTURE FEED WILL BE CUT OFF.
DECREASING MOISTURE AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM...SO WILL
LEAVE POPS SILENT.

NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THICKNESSES AND GUIDANCE YIELD TEMPS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S THRU MONDAY (AROUND -1 STD DEV). OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S NEAR THE WATER. WARMING BACK
UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK SFC HI PRES OVR THE REGION ALONG WITH DECENT LO-LEVEL
MOISTURE HAS LED TO ANOTHER MORNG WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS. IFR
THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED HAS NOT MATERIALIZED BUT IS STILL
PSBL THRU MID MORNG. MAIN EXPECTATION IS MVFR CIGS...EVENTUALLY
TRANSITIONING TO VFR EVERYWHERE. IMPROVEMENTS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL
MID TO LATE MORNG NEAR THE CST (ORF/PHF). OTWS...SCT TO BKN
CLOUDINESS TDA WITH 5-10 KT NE WINDS ON AVG TRANSITIONING TO E/SE
BY THIS AFTN.

OUTLOOK...CHC FOR AFTN TSTMS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME
MVFR/IFR PSBL AROUND SUNRISE EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. HI PRES PERSISTS JUST N
OF THE AREA TDA AS LO PRES AND AN ASSOCIATED FRNTAL BNDRY SLOWLY
SLIDE SE OF THE WTRS. THE RESULT WILL BE NE FLOW MAINLY 5-10 KT OVR
THE BAY/SOUND/RIVERS AND 10-15 KT OVR CSTL WTRS. EXPECT 2-3 FT SEAS
OVR THE OCEAN AND 1-2 FT WAVES OVR THE BAY FOR TDA INTO TNGT.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BNDRY LIFTS N AS A
WARM FRNT THU INTO FRI...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE OVR THE WEEKEND.
DURING THE WEEKEND...THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH NELY WINDS
INCREASING TO 10-20 KT. THIS WILL PUSH SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS TO 3-4
FT...WITH 5 FT PSBL 20NM OUT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/ESS/AJZ
NEAR TERM...ALB/ESS/JAO
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201405
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1005 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT SLOWLY PULLS NORTH INTO THE AREA TODAY...THEN REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WK SFC LO PRES OFFSHORE CONTS TO SLOLY MOVE E AND AWAY FM THE
MDATLC CST TDA. LINGERING FNTL BNDRY S OF THE FA THIS MRNG...W/
SFC HI PRES TO THE NNE...RESULTING IN CONTD SFC FLO FM THE ENE
ACRS THE FA (IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SFC LO PRES). REMNANT BNDRY
TO THE S PULLS SLOLY N INTO THE FA TDA AS WK SFC LO PRES INVOF
LAKES/UPR OH VLY APPROACHES FM THE WNW. ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION ALG
WK CDFNT AND ASSOCIATED W/ MID/UPR LVL S/W MOVING THROUGH ERN OH
VLY ATTM. DURG TDA...XPCG VRB CLDS TO PCLDY WX ACRS FA AFTER
MORNING ST ERODES OVER THE PIEDMONT AND FAR SE VA/NE NC. OTRW...FM
MIDDAY THROUGH AFTN/EVE HRS...SCT CONVECTION PSBL...ESP NRN
PORTION OF FA...AS SYS PASSES BY JUST TO THE N OF THE FA. HI TEMPS
FM THE L/M80S AT THE CST...TO M/U80S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE OVERALL PATTERN IS AGREED UPON IN THE MID RANGE PART OF THE
FORECAST AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SLIDES INTO THE
EAST AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MS VALLEY BUILDS
NORTHWARD...SETTING UP NW FLO ALOFT OVER OF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. HOWEVER...BEYOND THE THAT...THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MAKES THE TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION VERY UNCERTAIN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...A WK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE IN THE VICINITY SHOULD
BE SOME STATIONARY AND NRLY PARALLEL TO THE FLOW ALOFT AND COULD
ALSO BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. AT THIS POINT...WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY...WILL CONT TO LEAN MORE TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY WITH BEST
CHANCES IN THE PIEDMONT EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN AREA WIDE
IN LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT.

LO TEMPS TNGT FM THE M60S TO ARND 70F. HI TEMPS THU FM THE M80S AT
THE CST TO L90S INLAND. HI TEMPS FRI IN THE L/M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN NWLY
FLOW ALOFT...BUT DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE...LATE SUMMER NORMS TO BEGIN THE
EXTENDED BEFORE RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW DURING THE EXTENDED IS HIGHLIGHTED BY SPLIT/BLOCKY
FLOW OFF THE ERN CANADA AND NERN US COAST AND AMPLIFYING HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SRN CONUS. THIS PLACES THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION IN
NWLY FLOW ALOFT. ASSOCIATED BACK DOOR FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA SATURDAY MORNING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED OVER THE NE
WILL RIDGE SWWD ALONG THE COAST AND INTO CNTRL VA. NLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW INDICATED IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WILL DRIVE DEWPOINTS
DOWNWARD INTO THE MID 60S. HOWEVER...MODEL DERIVED PWATS REMAIN
AROUND 1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES. COMBINED WITH PERTURBATIONS IN THE NWLY
FLOW...WILL HAVE MNLY CLDY WX AND MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH
FOR POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM...ROUNDING THE RIDGE AND
DROPPING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT THRU THE WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO LOCATE OFF THE COAST. BLOCK WILL
REMAIN OFF THE NE COAST...BUT MOISTURE FEED WILL BE CUT OFF.
DECREASING MOISTURE AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM...SO WILL
LEAVE POPS SILENT.

NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THICKNESSES AND GUIDANCE YIELD TEMPS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S THRU MONDAY (AROUND -1 STD DEV). OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S NEAR THE WATER. WARMING BACK
UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK SFC HI PRES OVR THE REGION ALONG WITH DECENT LO-LEVEL
MOISTURE HAS LED TO ANOTHER MORNG WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS. IFR
THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED HAS NOT MATERIALIZED BUT IS STILL
PSBL THRU MID MORNG. MAIN EXPECTATION IS MVFR CIGS...EVENTUALLY
TRANSITIONING TO VFR EVERYWHERE. IMPROVEMENTS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL
MID TO LATE MORNG NEAR THE CST (ORF/PHF). OTWS...SCT TO BKN
CLOUDINESS TDA WITH 5-10 KT NE WINDS ON AVG TRANSITIONING TO E/SE
BY THIS AFTN.

OUTLOOK...CHC FOR AFTN TSTMS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME
MVFR/IFR PSBL AROUND SUNRISE EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. HI PRES PERSISTS JUST N
OF THE AREA TDA AS LO PRES AND AN ASSOCIATED FRNTAL BNDRY SLOWLY
SLIDE SE OF THE WTRS. THE RESULT WILL BE NE FLOW MAINLY 5-10 KT OVR
THE BAY/SOUND/RIVERS AND 10-15 KT OVR CSTL WTRS. EXPECT 2-3 FT SEAS
OVR THE OCEAN AND 1-2 FT WAVES OVR THE BAY FOR TDA INTO TNGT.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BNDRY LIFTS N AS A
WARM FRNT THU INTO FRI...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE OVR THE WEEKEND.
DURING THE WEEKEND...THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH NELY WINDS
INCREASING TO 10-20 KT. THIS WILL PUSH SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS TO 3-4
FT...WITH 5 FT PSBL 20NM OUT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/ESS/AJZ
NEAR TERM...ALB/ESS/JAO
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201405
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1005 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT SLOWLY PULLS NORTH INTO THE AREA TODAY...THEN REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WK SFC LO PRES OFFSHORE CONTS TO SLOLY MOVE E AND AWAY FM THE
MDATLC CST TDA. LINGERING FNTL BNDRY S OF THE FA THIS MRNG...W/
SFC HI PRES TO THE NNE...RESULTING IN CONTD SFC FLO FM THE ENE
ACRS THE FA (IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SFC LO PRES). REMNANT BNDRY
TO THE S PULLS SLOLY N INTO THE FA TDA AS WK SFC LO PRES INVOF
LAKES/UPR OH VLY APPROACHES FM THE WNW. ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION ALG
WK CDFNT AND ASSOCIATED W/ MID/UPR LVL S/W MOVING THROUGH ERN OH
VLY ATTM. DURG TDA...XPCG VRB CLDS TO PCLDY WX ACRS FA AFTER
MORNING ST ERODES OVER THE PIEDMONT AND FAR SE VA/NE NC. OTRW...FM
MIDDAY THROUGH AFTN/EVE HRS...SCT CONVECTION PSBL...ESP NRN
PORTION OF FA...AS SYS PASSES BY JUST TO THE N OF THE FA. HI TEMPS
FM THE L/M80S AT THE CST...TO M/U80S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE OVERALL PATTERN IS AGREED UPON IN THE MID RANGE PART OF THE
FORECAST AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SLIDES INTO THE
EAST AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MS VALLEY BUILDS
NORTHWARD...SETTING UP NW FLO ALOFT OVER OF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. HOWEVER...BEYOND THE THAT...THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MAKES THE TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION VERY UNCERTAIN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...A WK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE IN THE VICINITY SHOULD
BE SOME STATIONARY AND NRLY PARALLEL TO THE FLOW ALOFT AND COULD
ALSO BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. AT THIS POINT...WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY...WILL CONT TO LEAN MORE TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY WITH BEST
CHANCES IN THE PIEDMONT EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN AREA WIDE
IN LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT.

LO TEMPS TNGT FM THE M60S TO ARND 70F. HI TEMPS THU FM THE M80S AT
THE CST TO L90S INLAND. HI TEMPS FRI IN THE L/M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN NWLY
FLOW ALOFT...BUT DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE...LATE SUMMER NORMS TO BEGIN THE
EXTENDED BEFORE RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW DURING THE EXTENDED IS HIGHLIGHTED BY SPLIT/BLOCKY
FLOW OFF THE ERN CANADA AND NERN US COAST AND AMPLIFYING HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SRN CONUS. THIS PLACES THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION IN
NWLY FLOW ALOFT. ASSOCIATED BACK DOOR FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA SATURDAY MORNING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED OVER THE NE
WILL RIDGE SWWD ALONG THE COAST AND INTO CNTRL VA. NLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW INDICATED IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WILL DRIVE DEWPOINTS
DOWNWARD INTO THE MID 60S. HOWEVER...MODEL DERIVED PWATS REMAIN
AROUND 1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES. COMBINED WITH PERTURBATIONS IN THE NWLY
FLOW...WILL HAVE MNLY CLDY WX AND MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH
FOR POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM...ROUNDING THE RIDGE AND
DROPPING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT THRU THE WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO LOCATE OFF THE COAST. BLOCK WILL
REMAIN OFF THE NE COAST...BUT MOISTURE FEED WILL BE CUT OFF.
DECREASING MOISTURE AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM...SO WILL
LEAVE POPS SILENT.

NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THICKNESSES AND GUIDANCE YIELD TEMPS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S THRU MONDAY (AROUND -1 STD DEV). OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S NEAR THE WATER. WARMING BACK
UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK SFC HI PRES OVR THE REGION ALONG WITH DECENT LO-LEVEL
MOISTURE HAS LED TO ANOTHER MORNG WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS. IFR
THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED HAS NOT MATERIALIZED BUT IS STILL
PSBL THRU MID MORNG. MAIN EXPECTATION IS MVFR CIGS...EVENTUALLY
TRANSITIONING TO VFR EVERYWHERE. IMPROVEMENTS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL
MID TO LATE MORNG NEAR THE CST (ORF/PHF). OTWS...SCT TO BKN
CLOUDINESS TDA WITH 5-10 KT NE WINDS ON AVG TRANSITIONING TO E/SE
BY THIS AFTN.

OUTLOOK...CHC FOR AFTN TSTMS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME
MVFR/IFR PSBL AROUND SUNRISE EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. HI PRES PERSISTS JUST N
OF THE AREA TDA AS LO PRES AND AN ASSOCIATED FRNTAL BNDRY SLOWLY
SLIDE SE OF THE WTRS. THE RESULT WILL BE NE FLOW MAINLY 5-10 KT OVR
THE BAY/SOUND/RIVERS AND 10-15 KT OVR CSTL WTRS. EXPECT 2-3 FT SEAS
OVR THE OCEAN AND 1-2 FT WAVES OVR THE BAY FOR TDA INTO TNGT.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BNDRY LIFTS N AS A
WARM FRNT THU INTO FRI...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE OVR THE WEEKEND.
DURING THE WEEKEND...THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH NELY WINDS
INCREASING TO 10-20 KT. THIS WILL PUSH SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS TO 3-4
FT...WITH 5 FT PSBL 20NM OUT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/ESS/AJZ
NEAR TERM...ALB/ESS/JAO
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201405
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1005 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT SLOWLY PULLS NORTH INTO THE AREA TODAY...THEN REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WK SFC LO PRES OFFSHORE CONTS TO SLOLY MOVE E AND AWAY FM THE
MDATLC CST TDA. LINGERING FNTL BNDRY S OF THE FA THIS MRNG...W/
SFC HI PRES TO THE NNE...RESULTING IN CONTD SFC FLO FM THE ENE
ACRS THE FA (IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SFC LO PRES). REMNANT BNDRY
TO THE S PULLS SLOLY N INTO THE FA TDA AS WK SFC LO PRES INVOF
LAKES/UPR OH VLY APPROACHES FM THE WNW. ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION ALG
WK CDFNT AND ASSOCIATED W/ MID/UPR LVL S/W MOVING THROUGH ERN OH
VLY ATTM. DURG TDA...XPCG VRB CLDS TO PCLDY WX ACRS FA AFTER
MORNING ST ERODES OVER THE PIEDMONT AND FAR SE VA/NE NC. OTRW...FM
MIDDAY THROUGH AFTN/EVE HRS...SCT CONVECTION PSBL...ESP NRN
PORTION OF FA...AS SYS PASSES BY JUST TO THE N OF THE FA. HI TEMPS
FM THE L/M80S AT THE CST...TO M/U80S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE OVERALL PATTERN IS AGREED UPON IN THE MID RANGE PART OF THE
FORECAST AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SLIDES INTO THE
EAST AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MS VALLEY BUILDS
NORTHWARD...SETTING UP NW FLO ALOFT OVER OF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. HOWEVER...BEYOND THE THAT...THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MAKES THE TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION VERY UNCERTAIN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...A WK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE IN THE VICINITY SHOULD
BE SOME STATIONARY AND NRLY PARALLEL TO THE FLOW ALOFT AND COULD
ALSO BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. AT THIS POINT...WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY...WILL CONT TO LEAN MORE TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY WITH BEST
CHANCES IN THE PIEDMONT EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN AREA WIDE
IN LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT.

LO TEMPS TNGT FM THE M60S TO ARND 70F. HI TEMPS THU FM THE M80S AT
THE CST TO L90S INLAND. HI TEMPS FRI IN THE L/M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN NWLY
FLOW ALOFT...BUT DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE...LATE SUMMER NORMS TO BEGIN THE
EXTENDED BEFORE RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW DURING THE EXTENDED IS HIGHLIGHTED BY SPLIT/BLOCKY
FLOW OFF THE ERN CANADA AND NERN US COAST AND AMPLIFYING HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SRN CONUS. THIS PLACES THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION IN
NWLY FLOW ALOFT. ASSOCIATED BACK DOOR FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA SATURDAY MORNING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED OVER THE NE
WILL RIDGE SWWD ALONG THE COAST AND INTO CNTRL VA. NLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW INDICATED IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WILL DRIVE DEWPOINTS
DOWNWARD INTO THE MID 60S. HOWEVER...MODEL DERIVED PWATS REMAIN
AROUND 1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES. COMBINED WITH PERTURBATIONS IN THE NWLY
FLOW...WILL HAVE MNLY CLDY WX AND MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH
FOR POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM...ROUNDING THE RIDGE AND
DROPPING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT THRU THE WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO LOCATE OFF THE COAST. BLOCK WILL
REMAIN OFF THE NE COAST...BUT MOISTURE FEED WILL BE CUT OFF.
DECREASING MOISTURE AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM...SO WILL
LEAVE POPS SILENT.

NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THICKNESSES AND GUIDANCE YIELD TEMPS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S THRU MONDAY (AROUND -1 STD DEV). OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S NEAR THE WATER. WARMING BACK
UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK SFC HI PRES OVR THE REGION ALONG WITH DECENT LO-LEVEL
MOISTURE HAS LED TO ANOTHER MORNG WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS. IFR
THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED HAS NOT MATERIALIZED BUT IS STILL
PSBL THRU MID MORNG. MAIN EXPECTATION IS MVFR CIGS...EVENTUALLY
TRANSITIONING TO VFR EVERYWHERE. IMPROVEMENTS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL
MID TO LATE MORNG NEAR THE CST (ORF/PHF). OTWS...SCT TO BKN
CLOUDINESS TDA WITH 5-10 KT NE WINDS ON AVG TRANSITIONING TO E/SE
BY THIS AFTN.

OUTLOOK...CHC FOR AFTN TSTMS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME
MVFR/IFR PSBL AROUND SUNRISE EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. HI PRES PERSISTS JUST N
OF THE AREA TDA AS LO PRES AND AN ASSOCIATED FRNTAL BNDRY SLOWLY
SLIDE SE OF THE WTRS. THE RESULT WILL BE NE FLOW MAINLY 5-10 KT OVR
THE BAY/SOUND/RIVERS AND 10-15 KT OVR CSTL WTRS. EXPECT 2-3 FT SEAS
OVR THE OCEAN AND 1-2 FT WAVES OVR THE BAY FOR TDA INTO TNGT.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BNDRY LIFTS N AS A
WARM FRNT THU INTO FRI...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE OVR THE WEEKEND.
DURING THE WEEKEND...THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH NELY WINDS
INCREASING TO 10-20 KT. THIS WILL PUSH SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS TO 3-4
FT...WITH 5 FT PSBL 20NM OUT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/ESS/AJZ
NEAR TERM...ALB/ESS/JAO
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 201330
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
930 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH AND WEST AS A COLD FRONT FRIDAY
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL EXTEND INTO OUR AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST DURING THIS TIME
DUE TO PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE MID ATLANTIC THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
AND APPALACHIAN MTNS AND WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY FRONT
THIS MORNING.

VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. FURTHER EAST...S-SE WINDS HAVE BANKED CLOUDS AGAINST THE BLUE
RIDGE MTNS SOUTH OF THE POTOMAC RIVER RESULTING IN LOW CLOUDS FOR
LOCATIONS ADJACENT TO THE MTNS THIS MORNING. THESE CLOUDS MAY
CREEP NORTHWARD BEFORE DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z IAD RAOB
HAS ABOUT 500 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND AFTER MODIFYING IT FOR THE
AFTERNOON...INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1000
J/KG. INSTABILITY SHOULD INCREASE MORE IF AN AREA RECEIVES MORE
HEATING. DEWPTS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY OR REACH THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 BY THE AFTERNOON AND AS MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST...PWATS
WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO AROUND 1.8 INCHES. SHEAR IS
WEAK...AROUND 25KTS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY SUB-SEVERE
TODAY. HRRR HAS LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE MORNING AND REACHING THE BLUE RIDGE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THE I-95 CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY IS
MORE ISO-SCT FURTHER SOUTH AND THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE
NORTH OF I-66 AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES TO THE NORTH. MAIN THREAT
IN ACTIVITY WILL BE HEAVY RAIN IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MIDDLE
80S ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.

COVERAGE IN CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH THE
BOUNDARY NEARBY AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH...A FEW SHOWERS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AS WELL. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH MIN
TEMPS RANGING FROM NEAR 60 IN THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS TO THE LOWER
70S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE
AREA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY FROM CENTRAL MARYLAND THROUGH CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND THE
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD. MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH COVERAGE BEING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MAX
TEMPS THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID
AND UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS TO THE
LOWER 70S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH
THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
H5 PTTN MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED/ACTIVE THAN NORMAL FOR LT AUG...BUT THEN
AGAIN THIS HASNT BEEN A TYPICAL SUMMER. A SUBTROPICAL RDG WL BE
ANCHORED OVER THE MS VLY THRU MUCH OF THE PD. THAT LEAVES CWFA IN NW
FLOW ALOFT...AND TEMPS COOLER THAN CLIMO. WUD LOVE TO BE AS
DEFINITIVE W/ POPS. HWVR...SUBSIDENCE WL BE CONFINED TO OVER NEW
ENGLAND. WHILE AMS LKLY WONT BE OUTRIGHT CAPPED...THERE ARENT
SPECIFIC DISCERNABLE FORCING MECHANISMS EITHER...BUT THERE WL BE THE
JETSTREAM ABV AREA AT HIER LVLS. THAT LEAVES SENSIBLE WX SUSCEPTIBLE
TO MID-UPA DYNAMICS SUCH AS S/WV IMPULSES EMBEDDED W/IN MEAN LYR
FLOW. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THERE WL BE SUCH A DISTURBANCE FRI NGT
INTO SAT. INSTBY MEAGER...AND BECOME INCREASINGLY LMTD AS SFC FLOW
BECOMES ELY.

BYD THAT...EVEN BROAD DETAILS BECOME PROBLEMATIC. BY ELY NXT WK...
RDGG SHUD RETROGRADE...PROVIDING A BETTER BET AT SOME DRY CONDS IN
THE CSTL PLAIN. STILL CANT RULE OUT A SHRA IN THE MTNS...BUT THE
CHCS FAR LESS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT CHO THIS MORNING. SCT MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT IAD-DCA AS LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD AGAINST THE MTNS. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MORE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

FLGT RESTRICTIONS PROBABLE W/IN SHRA/TSRA THRU THE WKND. HWVR...
AREAL CVRG A WILD CARD. FRI NGT-SAT LOOK TO BE THE WETTEST PART OF
THE OUTLOOK ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...
A BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE WEAK ENOUGH TO PREVENT SCA CRITERIA
WINDS DURING THIS TIME. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND
AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

ATTM NO ADVYS XPCTD THRU THIS WKND. HWVR UNSTTLD CONDS WL PREVAIL...
AND CANNOT PRECLUDE A FEW MARINE WRNGS INVOF TSRA.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT IT WILL REMAIN
WEAK. THE FLOW MAY TURN MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WOULD CAUSE
WATER LEVELS TO BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN RECENTLY.
THIS WILL CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO BE CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL/HAS
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...BJL/HAS/HTS
MARINE...BJL/HAS/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL








000
FXUS61 KLWX 201330
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
930 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH AND WEST AS A COLD FRONT FRIDAY
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL EXTEND INTO OUR AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST DURING THIS TIME
DUE TO PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE MID ATLANTIC THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
AND APPALACHIAN MTNS AND WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY FRONT
THIS MORNING.

VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. FURTHER EAST...S-SE WINDS HAVE BANKED CLOUDS AGAINST THE BLUE
RIDGE MTNS SOUTH OF THE POTOMAC RIVER RESULTING IN LOW CLOUDS FOR
LOCATIONS ADJACENT TO THE MTNS THIS MORNING. THESE CLOUDS MAY
CREEP NORTHWARD BEFORE DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z IAD RAOB
HAS ABOUT 500 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND AFTER MODIFYING IT FOR THE
AFTERNOON...INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1000
J/KG. INSTABILITY SHOULD INCREASE MORE IF AN AREA RECEIVES MORE
HEATING. DEWPTS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY OR REACH THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 BY THE AFTERNOON AND AS MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST...PWATS
WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO AROUND 1.8 INCHES. SHEAR IS
WEAK...AROUND 25KTS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY SUB-SEVERE
TODAY. HRRR HAS LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE MORNING AND REACHING THE BLUE RIDGE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THE I-95 CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY IS
MORE ISO-SCT FURTHER SOUTH AND THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE
NORTH OF I-66 AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES TO THE NORTH. MAIN THREAT
IN ACTIVITY WILL BE HEAVY RAIN IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MIDDLE
80S ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.

COVERAGE IN CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH THE
BOUNDARY NEARBY AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH...A FEW SHOWERS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AS WELL. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH MIN
TEMPS RANGING FROM NEAR 60 IN THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS TO THE LOWER
70S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE
AREA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY FROM CENTRAL MARYLAND THROUGH CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND THE
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD. MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH COVERAGE BEING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MAX
TEMPS THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID
AND UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS TO THE
LOWER 70S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH
THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
H5 PTTN MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED/ACTIVE THAN NORMAL FOR LT AUG...BUT THEN
AGAIN THIS HASNT BEEN A TYPICAL SUMMER. A SUBTROPICAL RDG WL BE
ANCHORED OVER THE MS VLY THRU MUCH OF THE PD. THAT LEAVES CWFA IN NW
FLOW ALOFT...AND TEMPS COOLER THAN CLIMO. WUD LOVE TO BE AS
DEFINITIVE W/ POPS. HWVR...SUBSIDENCE WL BE CONFINED TO OVER NEW
ENGLAND. WHILE AMS LKLY WONT BE OUTRIGHT CAPPED...THERE ARENT
SPECIFIC DISCERNABLE FORCING MECHANISMS EITHER...BUT THERE WL BE THE
JETSTREAM ABV AREA AT HIER LVLS. THAT LEAVES SENSIBLE WX SUSCEPTIBLE
TO MID-UPA DYNAMICS SUCH AS S/WV IMPULSES EMBEDDED W/IN MEAN LYR
FLOW. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THERE WL BE SUCH A DISTURBANCE FRI NGT
INTO SAT. INSTBY MEAGER...AND BECOME INCREASINGLY LMTD AS SFC FLOW
BECOMES ELY.

BYD THAT...EVEN BROAD DETAILS BECOME PROBLEMATIC. BY ELY NXT WK...
RDGG SHUD RETROGRADE...PROVIDING A BETTER BET AT SOME DRY CONDS IN
THE CSTL PLAIN. STILL CANT RULE OUT A SHRA IN THE MTNS...BUT THE
CHCS FAR LESS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT CHO THIS MORNING. SCT MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT IAD-DCA AS LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD AGAINST THE MTNS. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MORE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

FLGT RESTRICTIONS PROBABLE W/IN SHRA/TSRA THRU THE WKND. HWVR...
AREAL CVRG A WILD CARD. FRI NGT-SAT LOOK TO BE THE WETTEST PART OF
THE OUTLOOK ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...
A BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE WEAK ENOUGH TO PREVENT SCA CRITERIA
WINDS DURING THIS TIME. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND
AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

ATTM NO ADVYS XPCTD THRU THIS WKND. HWVR UNSTTLD CONDS WL PREVAIL...
AND CANNOT PRECLUDE A FEW MARINE WRNGS INVOF TSRA.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT IT WILL REMAIN
WEAK. THE FLOW MAY TURN MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WOULD CAUSE
WATER LEVELS TO BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN RECENTLY.
THIS WILL CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO BE CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL/HAS
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...BJL/HAS/HTS
MARINE...BJL/HAS/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL







000
FXUS61 KRNK 201154
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
754 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACKING EAST AND SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE BOUNDARY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
REGION EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES WITH LOBE OF VORTICITY TRAILING SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS FEATURE HAS RESULTED IN A PERSISTENT AREA OF LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS OF 08Z/4AM...NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS WERE OCCURRING FROM WESTERN PA INTO EASTERN OHIO AND
NORTHEAST KY. OUTFLOW FROM THIS COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY.

MODELS DO NOT SEEM OVERLY CONFIDENT THIS OUTFLOW WILL MAKE IT
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...INDICATING WEAKENING AND A GRADUAL DEMISE OF
ACTIVITY. MATTER OF FACT THE SYNOPTIC MODELS DON`T PRODUCE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF RAINFALL AT ALL ACROSS OUR CWA...MOS POPS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 40 PERCENT.

ATTM PREFER NOT TO IGNORE THE OBVIOUS...WHICH IS A MODEST LOOKING
UPPER LEVEL TROF...ASSOCIATED WITH A HEALTHY LOOKING AREA OF
SHRA/TSRA...THE OUTFLOW OF WHICH SHOULD PASS THROUGH OUR FORECAST
AREA TODAY. THE ONLY THING THAT KEPT ME FROM GOING WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS IS THE POTENTIAL TIMING OF THE ACTIVITY AS IT
CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS. BASED ON CURRENT PROGRESSION...SHOWERS WILL
MOVE INTO THE WV MOUNTAINS DURING THE MORNING...THEN PROGRESS EAST
REACHING THE BLUE RIDGE TOWARD NOON...THEN EAST OF THE MTNS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS EARLIER SORT OF TIMING SUGGESTS DEBRIS CLOUDS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE CWA EARLY AND LIMIT FULL INSOLATION THUS
LIMITING INSTABILITY.

THAT SAID...THINK AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT IN A WEAKENED STATE. GREATEST
COVERAGE WILL BE FROM THE VIRGINIAS NORTHWARD CLOSER TO THE UPPER
SUPPORT FROM THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...THE STRONGER DYNAMIC LIFT
MOVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO PA/NY. HAVE PLACED THE HIGHEST
POPS ACROSS WV/VA CLOSER TO THE SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER TROF...AND
WHERE THE OUTFLOW WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF MAKING IT OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND HELP FOCUS RENEWED DEEP CONVECTION. FARTHER
SOUTH...FROM THE VA/NC BORDER SOUTHWARD...COVERAGE WILL BE LESS
AND MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE. WITH LESS COVERAGE COMES THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE SUN. MORE SUN SUGGESTS WARMER
TEMPERATURES...AND WARMER TEMEPERATURES WILL YIELD GREATER
INSTABILITY PROVIDING STRONGER UPDRAFTS. AS SUCH CAN`T RULE OUT A
STRONG PULSE STORM OR TWO...ESPECIALLY WHERE MORE SUN
MATERIALIZES.

WENT BLO MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS WHERE
MORE CLOUD COVER IS ANTICIPATED TODAY. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WHERE MORE SUN IS ANTICIPATED.

PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING AN END TO MOST OF THE STORM
ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FOGGY NIGHT WITH
AREAS OF FOG AND PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. IF SKIES CAN COMPLETELY CLEAR...THIS WOULD BE MOST IDEAL FOR
RADIATION FOG. THERE WERE SEVERAL REPORTS IN THE NEW RIVER VALLEY
WITH DENSE FOG EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THINK IT WILL BE A REPEAT
AGAIN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN DURING THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A STRONG UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
SITUATED ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A DEEPENING UPPER
LOW/TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. OUR AREA
OF THE COUNTRY WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE TWO WITHIN NW-SE
ORIENTED MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT EITHER OVER...OR VERY CLOSE TO THE REGION BY THE
START OF THE WEEKEND.

THE ABOVE SCENARIO POINTS TOWARD A PERIOD WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY AND NIGHT...AND SOME AFTERNOON AND
EVENING STORMS. WHAT IS A LITTLE HARDER TO NAIL DOWN WILL BE THE
WINDOWS OF OPPORTUNITY FOR LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION IN ASSOCIATION WITH PERIODICAL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS HEADING SOUTHEAST ALONG THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THROUGH OUR
REGION. EACH MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE A DIFFERENT TAKE ON TIMING AND
TRACK.

EYEBALLING A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARD THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS ONE POTENTIAL TIME THAT WOULD WARRANT
HIGHER POPS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE REGION. ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY MAY BE FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS MAINLY
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. FINALLY...SATURDAY NIGHT MAY
PROVE TO BE A THIRD OPPORTUNITY FOR ALL OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS.

AT THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE IS NOT THERE TO OFFER A CATEGORICAL...75
PERCENT OR HIGHER...CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR ANY ONE OF THE THREE
SCENARIOS LISTED ABOVE. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE...OR ADD...A
FORECAST OF LIKELY POPS TO THE FIRST AND SECOND SCENARIOS. FOR THE
THIRD SCENARIO...WILL OFFER A FORECAST JUST SHY OF LIKELY POPS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY COOL AS
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE MAKES PROGRESS WESTWARD. THE COMBINATION OF MORE
CLOUD COVER AND MORE PRECIPITATION...ALONG WITH LOWER HEIGHTS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THIS. BY SATURDAY...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MAY BE
BISECTING THE REGION FROM NW-SE...THUS YIELDING NOTABLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AT LEAST FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY THE
BATTLE BETWEEN LARGE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST TRYING TO BUILD INTO
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...WHILE TROUGH OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST DEEPENS
WHILE CLOSING OFF AND CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT IT WILL SET UP CLOSE
ENOUGH TO COAST TO PUSH BACK DOOR FRONT THROUGH AND WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BEFORE LIKELY WEAKENING AND ALLOWING
MORE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE TO BE FELT BY TUES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA IF WEAK/SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER WEDGE IS IN
PLACE EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE MIXING OUT OVER THE EAST.  WHILE
SURFACE WEDGE FRONT MAY BE WELL TO THE SOUTH DURING MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD...WITH STRONGEST SOUTHWARD PUSH ON SATURDAY...THE 850
BOUNDARY AND MOST LIKELY TRACK FOR UPPER S/WV ENERGY FROM THE NW IS
LIKELY TO BE RIGHT OVER THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA...AND THUS GOOD
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD.  TIMING
MOST LIKELY WINDOWS REMAINS TRICKY...AS MANY OF THESE WAVES ARE
STRONGLY INFLUENCE BY CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES THAT WILL DEVELOP WELL
UPSTREAM. LIKE THE TRENDS OVERALL THAT 12Z GFS IS TAKING...NOT ONLY
WITH RETURN TO SHARPER AMPLITUDE PATTERN...BUT IDEA OF TWO DISTINCT
WAVES HEADING FOR THE WESTERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA...ONE
SATURDAY AND ANOTHER ONE SUNDAY. EXACT TIMES MAY HELP DETERMINE IF
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY...WHICH WOULD LIKELY BE LIMITED TO
THE FAR WEST NEAR EDGE OF WEDGE BOUNDARY...BUT PERHAPS THE BIGGER
CONCERN IS RAINFALL THAT IS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE SAME AREAS AT LEAST
A COUPLE OF DAYS IN A ROW.

THERE COULD BE ANOTHER WAVE FOR MONDAY...BUT AS RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD IN AND TROUGH TO THE EAST AND ASSOCIATED WEDGE WEAKEN WHAT MAY
TEND TO OCCUR IS MORE DIURNAL POP-UP CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE BOUNDARY IN OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA
AS THE ATMOS DESTABILIZES MORE. BY TUESDAY THE SUPPORT TO KEEP WEDGE
IN PLACE SHOULD BE WEAKENING AS TROUGH LIFTS AND SFC HIGH SHIFTS
MORE EAST OF THE AREA...AND OVERALL IT LOOKS A LITTLE DRIER...BUT
NOT SURE ALL POPS CAN BE REMOVED.

GIVEN PATTERN WE`VE BEEN IN...REALLY DON`T HAVE CONFIDENCE TO DRY IT
OUT OR WARM IT UP TOO FAST...SO WILL LEAN TOWARD STRONGER INFLUENCE
OF THE WEDGE THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIP...WHICH WILL HELP STRENGTHEN THE WEDGE TOO.  UNDERCUT EVEN
COOLER ECMWF A LITTLE BIT FOR HIGHS...WITH A BIT MORE WARMING FOR
TUESDAY. BUT IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST THINGS MAY BE ABLE TO WARM UP VERY
QUICKLY A DAY OR TWO EARLIER THAN THIS IF THE WEDGE CAN BREAK AND
SOME OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE BIG UPPER RIDGE CAN BE REALIZED.  THIS
WILL EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP FOR OUR ENTIRE
AREA...BUT AM THINKING IT WILL NOT COME UNTIL MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

BKN LINE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
SHRA/TSRA WILL PASS THROUGH THE MTNS THIS MORNING CROSSING
BLF/LWB/BCB BETWEEN 12-15Z/8-11AM...THEN MOVE EAST OF THE MTNS
AROUND MID-DAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM VCNTY OF ROA/LYH/DAN DURING THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TODAY...AND INTO NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY. THE TROF AXIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING
AND INTO THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON.

STORMINESS SHOULD CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA BY 22Z/6PM THIS EVENING
WITH ACTIVITY MOVING EAST. AREAS OF FOG WILL THEN RE-DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF MVFR AND POTENTIAL FOR IFR
VSBYS AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING.


EXTENDED AVIATION... WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
UNSETTLED AND HIGHLY VARIABLE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A
STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS STALLED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH PERIODICALLY
RESULTING IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DUE TO THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR...EXPECT STRATUS AND
FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR MOST
PRONOUNCED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 9AM EACH DAY. MODELS ARE INDICATED
THAT A DEEPER EASTERLY SORT OF WIND FLOW WILL SETUP FOR THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS SUGGEST THAT LOW CIGS MAY PERSIST EVEN
DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD
MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND DUE TO MOISTURE
BANKING UP AGAINST THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...PM



000
FXUS61 KRNK 201154
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
754 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACKING EAST AND SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE BOUNDARY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
REGION EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES WITH LOBE OF VORTICITY TRAILING SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS FEATURE HAS RESULTED IN A PERSISTENT AREA OF LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS OF 08Z/4AM...NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS WERE OCCURRING FROM WESTERN PA INTO EASTERN OHIO AND
NORTHEAST KY. OUTFLOW FROM THIS COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY.

MODELS DO NOT SEEM OVERLY CONFIDENT THIS OUTFLOW WILL MAKE IT
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...INDICATING WEAKENING AND A GRADUAL DEMISE OF
ACTIVITY. MATTER OF FACT THE SYNOPTIC MODELS DON`T PRODUCE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF RAINFALL AT ALL ACROSS OUR CWA...MOS POPS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 40 PERCENT.

ATTM PREFER NOT TO IGNORE THE OBVIOUS...WHICH IS A MODEST LOOKING
UPPER LEVEL TROF...ASSOCIATED WITH A HEALTHY LOOKING AREA OF
SHRA/TSRA...THE OUTFLOW OF WHICH SHOULD PASS THROUGH OUR FORECAST
AREA TODAY. THE ONLY THING THAT KEPT ME FROM GOING WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS IS THE POTENTIAL TIMING OF THE ACTIVITY AS IT
CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS. BASED ON CURRENT PROGRESSION...SHOWERS WILL
MOVE INTO THE WV MOUNTAINS DURING THE MORNING...THEN PROGRESS EAST
REACHING THE BLUE RIDGE TOWARD NOON...THEN EAST OF THE MTNS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS EARLIER SORT OF TIMING SUGGESTS DEBRIS CLOUDS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE CWA EARLY AND LIMIT FULL INSOLATION THUS
LIMITING INSTABILITY.

THAT SAID...THINK AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT IN A WEAKENED STATE. GREATEST
COVERAGE WILL BE FROM THE VIRGINIAS NORTHWARD CLOSER TO THE UPPER
SUPPORT FROM THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...THE STRONGER DYNAMIC LIFT
MOVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO PA/NY. HAVE PLACED THE HIGHEST
POPS ACROSS WV/VA CLOSER TO THE SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER TROF...AND
WHERE THE OUTFLOW WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF MAKING IT OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND HELP FOCUS RENEWED DEEP CONVECTION. FARTHER
SOUTH...FROM THE VA/NC BORDER SOUTHWARD...COVERAGE WILL BE LESS
AND MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE. WITH LESS COVERAGE COMES THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE SUN. MORE SUN SUGGESTS WARMER
TEMPERATURES...AND WARMER TEMEPERATURES WILL YIELD GREATER
INSTABILITY PROVIDING STRONGER UPDRAFTS. AS SUCH CAN`T RULE OUT A
STRONG PULSE STORM OR TWO...ESPECIALLY WHERE MORE SUN
MATERIALIZES.

WENT BLO MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS WHERE
MORE CLOUD COVER IS ANTICIPATED TODAY. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WHERE MORE SUN IS ANTICIPATED.

PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING AN END TO MOST OF THE STORM
ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FOGGY NIGHT WITH
AREAS OF FOG AND PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. IF SKIES CAN COMPLETELY CLEAR...THIS WOULD BE MOST IDEAL FOR
RADIATION FOG. THERE WERE SEVERAL REPORTS IN THE NEW RIVER VALLEY
WITH DENSE FOG EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THINK IT WILL BE A REPEAT
AGAIN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN DURING THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A STRONG UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
SITUATED ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A DEEPENING UPPER
LOW/TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. OUR AREA
OF THE COUNTRY WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE TWO WITHIN NW-SE
ORIENTED MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT EITHER OVER...OR VERY CLOSE TO THE REGION BY THE
START OF THE WEEKEND.

THE ABOVE SCENARIO POINTS TOWARD A PERIOD WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY AND NIGHT...AND SOME AFTERNOON AND
EVENING STORMS. WHAT IS A LITTLE HARDER TO NAIL DOWN WILL BE THE
WINDOWS OF OPPORTUNITY FOR LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION IN ASSOCIATION WITH PERIODICAL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS HEADING SOUTHEAST ALONG THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THROUGH OUR
REGION. EACH MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE A DIFFERENT TAKE ON TIMING AND
TRACK.

EYEBALLING A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARD THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS ONE POTENTIAL TIME THAT WOULD WARRANT
HIGHER POPS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE REGION. ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY MAY BE FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS MAINLY
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. FINALLY...SATURDAY NIGHT MAY
PROVE TO BE A THIRD OPPORTUNITY FOR ALL OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS.

AT THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE IS NOT THERE TO OFFER A CATEGORICAL...75
PERCENT OR HIGHER...CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR ANY ONE OF THE THREE
SCENARIOS LISTED ABOVE. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE...OR ADD...A
FORECAST OF LIKELY POPS TO THE FIRST AND SECOND SCENARIOS. FOR THE
THIRD SCENARIO...WILL OFFER A FORECAST JUST SHY OF LIKELY POPS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY COOL AS
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE MAKES PROGRESS WESTWARD. THE COMBINATION OF MORE
CLOUD COVER AND MORE PRECIPITATION...ALONG WITH LOWER HEIGHTS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THIS. BY SATURDAY...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MAY BE
BISECTING THE REGION FROM NW-SE...THUS YIELDING NOTABLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AT LEAST FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY THE
BATTLE BETWEEN LARGE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST TRYING TO BUILD INTO
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...WHILE TROUGH OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST DEEPENS
WHILE CLOSING OFF AND CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT IT WILL SET UP CLOSE
ENOUGH TO COAST TO PUSH BACK DOOR FRONT THROUGH AND WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BEFORE LIKELY WEAKENING AND ALLOWING
MORE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE TO BE FELT BY TUES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA IF WEAK/SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER WEDGE IS IN
PLACE EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE MIXING OUT OVER THE EAST.  WHILE
SURFACE WEDGE FRONT MAY BE WELL TO THE SOUTH DURING MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD...WITH STRONGEST SOUTHWARD PUSH ON SATURDAY...THE 850
BOUNDARY AND MOST LIKELY TRACK FOR UPPER S/WV ENERGY FROM THE NW IS
LIKELY TO BE RIGHT OVER THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA...AND THUS GOOD
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD.  TIMING
MOST LIKELY WINDOWS REMAINS TRICKY...AS MANY OF THESE WAVES ARE
STRONGLY INFLUENCE BY CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES THAT WILL DEVELOP WELL
UPSTREAM. LIKE THE TRENDS OVERALL THAT 12Z GFS IS TAKING...NOT ONLY
WITH RETURN TO SHARPER AMPLITUDE PATTERN...BUT IDEA OF TWO DISTINCT
WAVES HEADING FOR THE WESTERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA...ONE
SATURDAY AND ANOTHER ONE SUNDAY. EXACT TIMES MAY HELP DETERMINE IF
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY...WHICH WOULD LIKELY BE LIMITED TO
THE FAR WEST NEAR EDGE OF WEDGE BOUNDARY...BUT PERHAPS THE BIGGER
CONCERN IS RAINFALL THAT IS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE SAME AREAS AT LEAST
A COUPLE OF DAYS IN A ROW.

THERE COULD BE ANOTHER WAVE FOR MONDAY...BUT AS RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD IN AND TROUGH TO THE EAST AND ASSOCIATED WEDGE WEAKEN WHAT MAY
TEND TO OCCUR IS MORE DIURNAL POP-UP CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE BOUNDARY IN OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA
AS THE ATMOS DESTABILIZES MORE. BY TUESDAY THE SUPPORT TO KEEP WEDGE
IN PLACE SHOULD BE WEAKENING AS TROUGH LIFTS AND SFC HIGH SHIFTS
MORE EAST OF THE AREA...AND OVERALL IT LOOKS A LITTLE DRIER...BUT
NOT SURE ALL POPS CAN BE REMOVED.

GIVEN PATTERN WE`VE BEEN IN...REALLY DON`T HAVE CONFIDENCE TO DRY IT
OUT OR WARM IT UP TOO FAST...SO WILL LEAN TOWARD STRONGER INFLUENCE
OF THE WEDGE THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIP...WHICH WILL HELP STRENGTHEN THE WEDGE TOO.  UNDERCUT EVEN
COOLER ECMWF A LITTLE BIT FOR HIGHS...WITH A BIT MORE WARMING FOR
TUESDAY. BUT IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST THINGS MAY BE ABLE TO WARM UP VERY
QUICKLY A DAY OR TWO EARLIER THAN THIS IF THE WEDGE CAN BREAK AND
SOME OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE BIG UPPER RIDGE CAN BE REALIZED.  THIS
WILL EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP FOR OUR ENTIRE
AREA...BUT AM THINKING IT WILL NOT COME UNTIL MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

BKN LINE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
SHRA/TSRA WILL PASS THROUGH THE MTNS THIS MORNING CROSSING
BLF/LWB/BCB BETWEEN 12-15Z/8-11AM...THEN MOVE EAST OF THE MTNS
AROUND MID-DAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM VCNTY OF ROA/LYH/DAN DURING THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TODAY...AND INTO NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY. THE TROF AXIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING
AND INTO THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON.

STORMINESS SHOULD CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA BY 22Z/6PM THIS EVENING
WITH ACTIVITY MOVING EAST. AREAS OF FOG WILL THEN RE-DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF MVFR AND POTENTIAL FOR IFR
VSBYS AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING.


EXTENDED AVIATION... WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
UNSETTLED AND HIGHLY VARIABLE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A
STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS STALLED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH PERIODICALLY
RESULTING IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DUE TO THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR...EXPECT STRATUS AND
FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR MOST
PRONOUNCED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 9AM EACH DAY. MODELS ARE INDICATED
THAT A DEEPER EASTERLY SORT OF WIND FLOW WILL SETUP FOR THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS SUGGEST THAT LOW CIGS MAY PERSIST EVEN
DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD
MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND DUE TO MOISTURE
BANKING UP AGAINST THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...PM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201051
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
651 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT SLOWLY PULLS NORTH INTO THE AREA TODAY...THEN REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WK SFC LO PRES OFFSHORE CONTS TO SLOLY MOVE E AND AWAY FM THE
MDATLC CST TDA. LINGERING FNTL BNDRY S OF THE FA THIS MRNG...W/
SFC HI PRES TO THE NNE...RESULTING IN CONTD SFC FLO FM THE ENE
ACRS THE FA (IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SFC LO PRES). REMNANT BNDRY
TO THE S PULLS SLOLY N INTO THE FA TDA AS WK SFC LO PRES INVOF
LAKES/UPR OH VLY APPROACHES FM THE WNW. ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION ALG
WK CDFNT AND ASSOCIATED W/ MID/UPR LVL S/W MOVING THROUGH ERN OH
VLY ATTM. DURG TDA...PATCHY FG TO START...THOUGH RIGHT NOW NOT
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN FCST...THEN XPCG VRB CLDS TO PCLDY WX ACRS
FA. MAY BE AN ISOLD SHRA INVOF CSTL SE VA/NE NC THIS MRNG...AND
PSBLY FAR WNW AREAS IN FA. OTRW...FM MIDDAY THROUGH AFTN/EVE
HRS...SCT CONVECTION PSBL...ESP NRN PORTION OF FA...AS SYS PASSES
BY JUST TO THE N OF THE FA. HI TEMPS FM THE L/M80S AT THE CST...TO
M/U80S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE OVERALL PATTERN IS AGREED UPON IN THE MID RANGE PART OF THE
FORECAST AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SLIDES INTO THE
EAST AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MS VALLEY BUILDS
NORTHWARD...SETTING UP NW FLO ALOFT OVER OF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. HOWEVER...BEYOND THE THAT...THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MAKES THE TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION VERY UNCERTAIN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...A WK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE IN THE VICINITY SHOULD
BE SOME STATIONARY AND NRLY PARALLEL TO THE FLOW ALOFT AND COULD
ALSO BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. AT THIS POINT...WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY...WILL CONT TO LEAN MORE TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY WITH BEST
CHANCES IN THE PIEDMONT EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN AREA WIDE
IN LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT.

LO TEMPS TNGT FM THE M60S TO ARND 70F. HI TEMPS THU FM THE M80S AT
THE CST TO L90S INLAND. HI TEMPS FRI IN THE L/M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN NWLY
FLOW ALOFT...BUT DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE...LATE SUMMER NORMS TO BEGIN THE
EXTENDED BEFORE RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW DURING THE EXTENDED IS HIGHLIGHTED BY SPLIT/BLOCKY
FLOW OFF THE ERN CANADA AND NERN US COAST AND AMPLIFYING HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SRN CONUS. THIS PLACES THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION IN
NWLY FLOW ALOFT. ASSOCIATED BACK DOOR FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA SATURDAY MORNING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED OVER THE NE
WILL RIDGE SWWD ALONG THE COAST AND INTO CNTRL VA. NLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW INDICATED IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WILL DRIVE DEWPOINTS
DOWNWARD INTO THE MID 60S. HOWEVER...MODEL DERIVED PWATS REMAIN
AROUND 1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES. COMBINED WITH PERTURBATIONS IN THE NWLY
FLOW...WILL HAVE MNLY CLDY WX AND MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH
FOR POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM...ROUNDING THE RIDGE AND
DROPPING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT THRU THE WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO LOCATE OFF THE COAST. BLOCK WILL
REMAIN OFF THE NE COAST...BUT MOISTURE FEED WILL BE CUT OFF.
DECREASING MOISTURE AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM...SO WILL
LEAVE POPS SILENT.

NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THICKNESSES AND GUIDANCE YIELD TEMPS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S THRU MONDAY (AROUND -1 STD DEV). OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S NEAR THE WATER. WARMING BACK
UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK SFC HI PRES OVR THE REGION ALONG WITH DECENT LO-LEVEL
MOISTURE HAS LED TO ANOTHER MORNG WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS. IFR
THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED HAS NOT MATERIALIZED BUT IS STILL
PSBL THRU MID MORNG. MAIN EXPECTATION IS MVFR CIGS...EVENTUALLY
TRANSITIONING TO VFR EVERYWHERE. IMPROVEMENTS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL
MID TO LATE MORNG NEAR THE CST (ORF/PHF). OTWS...SCT TO BKN
CLOUDINESS TDA WITH 5-10 KT NE WINDS ON AVG TRANSITIONING TO E/SE
BY THIS AFTN.

OUTLOOK...CHC FOR AFTN TSTMS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME
MVFR/IFR PSBL AROUND SUNRISE EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. HI PRES PERSISTS JUST N
OF THE AREA TDA AS LO PRES AND AN ASSOCIATED FRNTAL BNDRY SLOWLY
SLIDE SE OF THE WTRS. THE RESULT WILL BE NE FLOW MAINLY 5-10 KT OVR
THE BAY/SOUND/RIVERS AND 10-15 KT OVR CSTL WTRS. EXPECT 2-3 FT SEAS
OVR THE OCEAN AND 1-2 FT WAVES OVR THE BAY FOR TDA INTO TNGT.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BNDRY LIFTS N AS A
WARM FRNT THU INTO FRI...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE OVR THE WEEKEND.
DURING THE WEEKEND...THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH NELY WINDS
INCREASING TO 10-20 KT. THIS WILL PUSH SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS TO 3-4
FT...WITH 5 FT PSBL 20NM OUT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/ESS
NEAR TERM...ALB/ESS/JAO
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201051
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
651 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT SLOWLY PULLS NORTH INTO THE AREA TODAY...THEN REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WK SFC LO PRES OFFSHORE CONTS TO SLOLY MOVE E AND AWAY FM THE
MDATLC CST TDA. LINGERING FNTL BNDRY S OF THE FA THIS MRNG...W/
SFC HI PRES TO THE NNE...RESULTING IN CONTD SFC FLO FM THE ENE
ACRS THE FA (IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SFC LO PRES). REMNANT BNDRY
TO THE S PULLS SLOLY N INTO THE FA TDA AS WK SFC LO PRES INVOF
LAKES/UPR OH VLY APPROACHES FM THE WNW. ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION ALG
WK CDFNT AND ASSOCIATED W/ MID/UPR LVL S/W MOVING THROUGH ERN OH
VLY ATTM. DURG TDA...PATCHY FG TO START...THOUGH RIGHT NOW NOT
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN FCST...THEN XPCG VRB CLDS TO PCLDY WX ACRS
FA. MAY BE AN ISOLD SHRA INVOF CSTL SE VA/NE NC THIS MRNG...AND
PSBLY FAR WNW AREAS IN FA. OTRW...FM MIDDAY THROUGH AFTN/EVE
HRS...SCT CONVECTION PSBL...ESP NRN PORTION OF FA...AS SYS PASSES
BY JUST TO THE N OF THE FA. HI TEMPS FM THE L/M80S AT THE CST...TO
M/U80S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE OVERALL PATTERN IS AGREED UPON IN THE MID RANGE PART OF THE
FORECAST AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SLIDES INTO THE
EAST AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MS VALLEY BUILDS
NORTHWARD...SETTING UP NW FLO ALOFT OVER OF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. HOWEVER...BEYOND THE THAT...THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MAKES THE TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION VERY UNCERTAIN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...A WK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE IN THE VICINITY SHOULD
BE SOME STATIONARY AND NRLY PARALLEL TO THE FLOW ALOFT AND COULD
ALSO BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. AT THIS POINT...WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY...WILL CONT TO LEAN MORE TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY WITH BEST
CHANCES IN THE PIEDMONT EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN AREA WIDE
IN LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT.

LO TEMPS TNGT FM THE M60S TO ARND 70F. HI TEMPS THU FM THE M80S AT
THE CST TO L90S INLAND. HI TEMPS FRI IN THE L/M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN NWLY
FLOW ALOFT...BUT DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE...LATE SUMMER NORMS TO BEGIN THE
EXTENDED BEFORE RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW DURING THE EXTENDED IS HIGHLIGHTED BY SPLIT/BLOCKY
FLOW OFF THE ERN CANADA AND NERN US COAST AND AMPLIFYING HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SRN CONUS. THIS PLACES THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION IN
NWLY FLOW ALOFT. ASSOCIATED BACK DOOR FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA SATURDAY MORNING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED OVER THE NE
WILL RIDGE SWWD ALONG THE COAST AND INTO CNTRL VA. NLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW INDICATED IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WILL DRIVE DEWPOINTS
DOWNWARD INTO THE MID 60S. HOWEVER...MODEL DERIVED PWATS REMAIN
AROUND 1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES. COMBINED WITH PERTURBATIONS IN THE NWLY
FLOW...WILL HAVE MNLY CLDY WX AND MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH
FOR POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM...ROUNDING THE RIDGE AND
DROPPING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT THRU THE WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO LOCATE OFF THE COAST. BLOCK WILL
REMAIN OFF THE NE COAST...BUT MOISTURE FEED WILL BE CUT OFF.
DECREASING MOISTURE AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM...SO WILL
LEAVE POPS SILENT.

NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THICKNESSES AND GUIDANCE YIELD TEMPS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S THRU MONDAY (AROUND -1 STD DEV). OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S NEAR THE WATER. WARMING BACK
UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK SFC HI PRES OVR THE REGION ALONG WITH DECENT LO-LEVEL
MOISTURE HAS LED TO ANOTHER MORNG WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS. IFR
THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED HAS NOT MATERIALIZED BUT IS STILL
PSBL THRU MID MORNG. MAIN EXPECTATION IS MVFR CIGS...EVENTUALLY
TRANSITIONING TO VFR EVERYWHERE. IMPROVEMENTS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL
MID TO LATE MORNG NEAR THE CST (ORF/PHF). OTWS...SCT TO BKN
CLOUDINESS TDA WITH 5-10 KT NE WINDS ON AVG TRANSITIONING TO E/SE
BY THIS AFTN.

OUTLOOK...CHC FOR AFTN TSTMS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME
MVFR/IFR PSBL AROUND SUNRISE EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. HI PRES PERSISTS JUST N
OF THE AREA TDA AS LO PRES AND AN ASSOCIATED FRNTAL BNDRY SLOWLY
SLIDE SE OF THE WTRS. THE RESULT WILL BE NE FLOW MAINLY 5-10 KT OVR
THE BAY/SOUND/RIVERS AND 10-15 KT OVR CSTL WTRS. EXPECT 2-3 FT SEAS
OVR THE OCEAN AND 1-2 FT WAVES OVR THE BAY FOR TDA INTO TNGT.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BNDRY LIFTS N AS A
WARM FRNT THU INTO FRI...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE OVR THE WEEKEND.
DURING THE WEEKEND...THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH NELY WINDS
INCREASING TO 10-20 KT. THIS WILL PUSH SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS TO 3-4
FT...WITH 5 FT PSBL 20NM OUT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/ESS
NEAR TERM...ALB/ESS/JAO
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS







000
FXUS61 KRNK 200851
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
451 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACKING EAST AND SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE BOUNDARY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
REGION EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES WITH LOBE OF VORTICITY TRAILING SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS FEATURE HAS RESULTED IN A PERSISTENT AREA OF LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS OF 08Z/4AM...NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS WERE OCCURRING FROM WESTERN PA INTO EASTERN OHIO AND
NORTHEAST KY. OUTFLOW FROM THIS COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY.

MODELS DO NOT SEEM OVERLY CONFIDENT THIS OUTFLOW WILL MAKE IT
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...INDICATING WEAKENING AND A GRADUAL DEMISE OF
ACTIVITY. MATTER OF FACT THE SYNOPTIC MODELS DON`T PRODUCE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF RAINFALL AT ALL ACROSS OUR CWA...MOS POPS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 40 PERCENT.

ATTM PREFER NOT TO IGNORE THE OBVIOUS...WHICH IS A MODEST LOOKING
UPPER LEVEL TROF...ASSOCIATED WITH A HEALTHY LOOKING AREA OF
SHRA/TSRA...THE OUTFLOW OF WHICH SHOULD PASS THROUGH OUR FORECAST
AREA TODAY. THE ONLY THING THAT KEPT ME FROM GOING WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS IS THE POTENTIAL TIMING OF THE ACTIVITY AS IT
CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS. BASED ON CURRENT PROGRESSION...SHOWERS WILL
MOVE INTO THE WV MOUNTAINS DURING THE MORNING...THEN PROGRESS EAST
REACHING THE BLUE RIDGE TOWARD NOON...THEN EAST OF THE MTNS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS EARLIER SORT OF TIMING SUGGESTS DEBRIS CLOUDS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE CWA EARLY AND LIMIT FULL INSOLATION THUS
LIMITING INSTABILITY.

THAT SAID...THINK AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT IN A WEAKENED STATE. GREATEST
COVERAGE WILL BE FROM THE VIRGINIAS NORTHWARD CLOSER TO THE UPPER
SUPPORT FROM THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...THE STRONGER DYNAMIC LIFT
MOVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO PA/NY. HAVE PLACED THE HIGHEST
POPS ACROSS WV/VA CLOSER TO THE SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER TROF...AND
WHERE THE OUTFLOW WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF MAKING IT OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND HELP FOCUS RENEWED DEEP CONVECTION. FARTHER
SOUTH...FROM THE VA/NC BORDER SOUTHWARD...COVERAGE WILL BE LESS
AND MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE. WITH LESS COVERAGE COMES THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE SUN. MORE SUN SUGGESTS WARMER
TEMPERATURES...AND WARMER TEMEPERATURES WILL YIELD GREATER
INSTABILITY PROVIDING STRONGER UPDRAFTS. AS SUCH CAN`T RULE OUT A
STRONG PULSE STORM OR TWO...ESPECIALLY WHERE MORE SUN
MATERIALIZES.

WENT BLO MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS WHERE
MORE CLOUD COVER IS ANTICIPATED TODAY. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WHERE MORE SUN IS ANTICIPATED.

PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING AN END TO MOST OF THE STORM
ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FOGGY NIGHT WITH
AREAS OF FOG AND PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. IF SKIES CAN COMPLETELY CLEAR...THIS WOULD BE MOST IDEAL FOR
RADIATION FOG. THERE WERE SEVERAL REPORTS IN THE NEW RIVER VALLEY
WITH DENSE FOG EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THINK IT WILL BE A REPEAT
AGAIN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN DURING THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A STRONG UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
SITUATED ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A DEEPENING UPPER
LOW/TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. OUR AREA
OF THE COUNTRY WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE TWO WITHIN NW-SE
ORIENTED MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT EITHER OVER...OR VERY CLOSE TO THE REGION BY THE
START OF THE WEEKEND.

THE ABOVE SCENARIO POINTS TOWARD A PERIOD WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY AND NIGHT...AND SOME AFTERNOON AND
EVENING STORMS. WHAT IS A LITTLE HARDER TO NAIL DOWN WILL BE THE
WINDOWS OF OPPORTUNITY FOR LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION IN ASSOCIATION WITH PERIODICAL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS HEADING SOUTHEAST ALONG THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THROUGH OUR
REGION. EACH MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE A DIFFERENT TAKE ON TIMING AND
TRACK.

EYEBALLING A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARD THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS ONE POTENTIAL TIME THAT WOULD WARRANT
HIGHER POPS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE REGION. ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY MAY BE FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS MAINLY
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. FINALLY...SATURDAY NIGHT MAY
PROVE TO BE A THIRD OPPORTUNITY FOR ALL OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS.

AT THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE IS NOT THERE TO OFFER A CATEGORICAL...75
PERCENT OR HIGHER...CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR ANY ONE OF THE THREE
SCENARIOS LISTED ABOVE. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE...OR ADD...A
FORECAST OF LIKELY POPS TO THE FIRST AND SECOND SCENARIOS. FOR THE
THIRD SCENARIO...WILL OFFER A FORECAST JUST SHY OF LIKELY POPS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY COOL AS
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE MAKES PROGRESS WESTWARD. THE COMBINATION OF MORE
CLOUD COVER AND MORE PRECIPITATION...ALONG WITH LOWER HEIGHTS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THIS. BY SATURDAY...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MAY BE
BISECTING THE REGION FROM NW-SE...THUS YIELDING NOTABLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AT LEAST FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE
AREA.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY THE
BATTLE BETWEEN LARGE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST TRYING TO BUILD INTO
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...WHILE TROUGH OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST DEEPENS
WHILE CLOSING OFF AND CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT IT WILL SET UP CLOSE
ENOUGH TO COAST TO PUSH BACK DOOR FRONT THROUGH AND WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BEFORE LIKELY WEAKENING AND ALLOWING
MORE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE TO BE FELT BY TUES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA IF WEAK/SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER WEDGE IS IN
PLACE EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE MIXING OUT OVER THE EAST.  WHILE
SURFACE WEDGE FRONT MAY BE WELL TO THE SOUTH DURING MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD...WITH STRONGEST SOUTHWARD PUSH ON SATURDAY...THE 850
BOUNDARY AND MOST LIKELY TRACK FOR UPPER S/WV ENERGY FROM THE NW IS
LIKELY TO BE RIGHT OVER THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA...AND THUS GOOD
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD.  TIMING
MOST LIKELY WINDOWS REMAINS TRICKY...AS MANY OF THESE WAVES ARE
STRONGLY INFLUENCE BY CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES THAT WILL DEVELOP WELL
UPSTREAM. LIKE THE TRENDS OVERALL THAT 12Z GFS IS TAKING...NOT ONLY
WITH RETURN TO SHARPER AMPLITUDE PATTERN...BUT IDEA OF TWO DISTINCT
WAVES HEADING FOR THE WESTERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA...ONE
SATURDAY AND ANOTHER ONE SUNDAY. EXACT TIMES MAY HELP DETERMINE IF
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY...WHICH WOULD LIKELY BE LIMITED TO
THE FAR WEST NEAR EDGE OF WEDGE BOUNDARY...BUT PERHAPS THE BIGGER
CONCERN IS RAINFALL THAT IS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE SAME AREAS AT LEAST
A COUPLE OF DAYS IN A ROW.

THERE COULD BE ANOTHER WAVE FOR MONDAY...BUT AS RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD IN AND TROUGH TO THE EAST AND ASSOCIATED WEDGE WEAKEN WHAT MAY
TEND TO OCCUR IS MORE DIURNAL POP-UP CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE BOUNDARY IN OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA
AS THE ATMOS DESTABILIZES MORE. BY TUESDAY THE SUPPORT TO KEEP WEDGE
IN PLACE SHOULD BE WEAKENING AS TROUGH LIFTS AND SFC HIGH SHIFTS
MORE EAST OF THE AREA...AND OVERALL IT LOOKS A LITTLE DRIER...BUT
NOT SURE ALL POPS CAN BE REMOVED.

GIVEN PATTERN WE`VE BEEN IN...REALLY DON`T HAVE CONFIDENCE TO DRY IT
OUT OR WARM IT UP TOO FAST...SO WILL LEAN TOWARD STRONGER INFLUENCE
OF THE WEDGE THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIP...WHICH WILL HELP STRENGTHEN THE WEDGE TOO.  UNDERCUT EVEN
COOLER ECMWF A LITTLE BIT FOR HIGHS...WITH A BIT MORE WARMING FOR
TUESDAY. BUT IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST THINGS MAY BE ABLE TO WARM UP VERY
QUICKLY A DAY OR TWO EARLIER THAN THIS IF THE WEDGE CAN BREAK AND
SOME OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE BIG UPPER RIDGE CAN BE REALIZED.  THIS
WILL EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP FOR OUR ENTIRE
AREA...BUT AM THINKING IT WILL NOT COME UNTIL MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

SCT-BKN STRATUS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH AREAS OF
MVFR VSBYS DUE TO FOG. FOG WILL BE THICKER IN THE MTN VALLEYS WITH
POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS AT BLF/LWB/BCB EARLY THIS MORNING.
INCREASING CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH SHRA/TSRA APPROACHING FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY MAY PREVENT THE FOG FROM BECOMING OVERLY DENSE...ANY
FOG DISSIPATING QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TODAY...AND INTO NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY. THE TROF AXIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS AXIS IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TODAY. ONGOING STORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT
APPROACHES THE MOUNTAINS OF WV AND FAR WRN VA AROUND
DAYBREAK...WITH REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS
BEFORE NOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE
OUTFLOW AND THEN MOVE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.

BKN LINE OF SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE TERMINAL AREAS
TODAY...PASSING THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN TERMINALS AROUND NOON...THEN
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. STORMINESS SHOULD
CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z/8PM THIS EVENING WITH ACTIVITY
MOVING EAST. AREAS OF FOG WILL THEN RE-DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF MVFR AND POTENTIAL FOR IFR VSBYS AGAIN
THURSDAY MORNING.


EXTENDED AVIATION... WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
UNSETTLED AND HIGHLY VARIABLE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A
STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS STALLED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH PERIODICALLY
RESULTING IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DUE TO THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR...EXPECT STRATUS AND
FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR MOST
PRONOUNCED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 9AM EACH DAY. MODELS ARE INDICATED
THAT A DEEPER EASTERLY SORT OF WIND FLOW WILL SETUP FOR THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS SUGGEST THAT LOW CIGS MAY PERSIST EVEN
DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD
MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND DUE TO MOISTURE
BANKING UP AGAINST THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...PM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 200851
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
451 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACKING EAST AND SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE BOUNDARY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
REGION EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES WITH LOBE OF VORTICITY TRAILING SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS FEATURE HAS RESULTED IN A PERSISTENT AREA OF LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS OF 08Z/4AM...NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS WERE OCCURRING FROM WESTERN PA INTO EASTERN OHIO AND
NORTHEAST KY. OUTFLOW FROM THIS COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY.

MODELS DO NOT SEEM OVERLY CONFIDENT THIS OUTFLOW WILL MAKE IT
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...INDICATING WEAKENING AND A GRADUAL DEMISE OF
ACTIVITY. MATTER OF FACT THE SYNOPTIC MODELS DON`T PRODUCE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF RAINFALL AT ALL ACROSS OUR CWA...MOS POPS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 40 PERCENT.

ATTM PREFER NOT TO IGNORE THE OBVIOUS...WHICH IS A MODEST LOOKING
UPPER LEVEL TROF...ASSOCIATED WITH A HEALTHY LOOKING AREA OF
SHRA/TSRA...THE OUTFLOW OF WHICH SHOULD PASS THROUGH OUR FORECAST
AREA TODAY. THE ONLY THING THAT KEPT ME FROM GOING WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS IS THE POTENTIAL TIMING OF THE ACTIVITY AS IT
CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS. BASED ON CURRENT PROGRESSION...SHOWERS WILL
MOVE INTO THE WV MOUNTAINS DURING THE MORNING...THEN PROGRESS EAST
REACHING THE BLUE RIDGE TOWARD NOON...THEN EAST OF THE MTNS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS EARLIER SORT OF TIMING SUGGESTS DEBRIS CLOUDS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE CWA EARLY AND LIMIT FULL INSOLATION THUS
LIMITING INSTABILITY.

THAT SAID...THINK AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT IN A WEAKENED STATE. GREATEST
COVERAGE WILL BE FROM THE VIRGINIAS NORTHWARD CLOSER TO THE UPPER
SUPPORT FROM THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...THE STRONGER DYNAMIC LIFT
MOVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO PA/NY. HAVE PLACED THE HIGHEST
POPS ACROSS WV/VA CLOSER TO THE SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER TROF...AND
WHERE THE OUTFLOW WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF MAKING IT OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND HELP FOCUS RENEWED DEEP CONVECTION. FARTHER
SOUTH...FROM THE VA/NC BORDER SOUTHWARD...COVERAGE WILL BE LESS
AND MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE. WITH LESS COVERAGE COMES THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE SUN. MORE SUN SUGGESTS WARMER
TEMPERATURES...AND WARMER TEMEPERATURES WILL YIELD GREATER
INSTABILITY PROVIDING STRONGER UPDRAFTS. AS SUCH CAN`T RULE OUT A
STRONG PULSE STORM OR TWO...ESPECIALLY WHERE MORE SUN
MATERIALIZES.

WENT BLO MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS WHERE
MORE CLOUD COVER IS ANTICIPATED TODAY. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WHERE MORE SUN IS ANTICIPATED.

PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING AN END TO MOST OF THE STORM
ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FOGGY NIGHT WITH
AREAS OF FOG AND PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. IF SKIES CAN COMPLETELY CLEAR...THIS WOULD BE MOST IDEAL FOR
RADIATION FOG. THERE WERE SEVERAL REPORTS IN THE NEW RIVER VALLEY
WITH DENSE FOG EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THINK IT WILL BE A REPEAT
AGAIN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN DURING THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A STRONG UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
SITUATED ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A DEEPENING UPPER
LOW/TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. OUR AREA
OF THE COUNTRY WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE TWO WITHIN NW-SE
ORIENTED MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT EITHER OVER...OR VERY CLOSE TO THE REGION BY THE
START OF THE WEEKEND.

THE ABOVE SCENARIO POINTS TOWARD A PERIOD WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY AND NIGHT...AND SOME AFTERNOON AND
EVENING STORMS. WHAT IS A LITTLE HARDER TO NAIL DOWN WILL BE THE
WINDOWS OF OPPORTUNITY FOR LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION IN ASSOCIATION WITH PERIODICAL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS HEADING SOUTHEAST ALONG THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THROUGH OUR
REGION. EACH MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE A DIFFERENT TAKE ON TIMING AND
TRACK.

EYEBALLING A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARD THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS ONE POTENTIAL TIME THAT WOULD WARRANT
HIGHER POPS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE REGION. ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY MAY BE FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS MAINLY
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. FINALLY...SATURDAY NIGHT MAY
PROVE TO BE A THIRD OPPORTUNITY FOR ALL OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS.

AT THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE IS NOT THERE TO OFFER A CATEGORICAL...75
PERCENT OR HIGHER...CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR ANY ONE OF THE THREE
SCENARIOS LISTED ABOVE. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE...OR ADD...A
FORECAST OF LIKELY POPS TO THE FIRST AND SECOND SCENARIOS. FOR THE
THIRD SCENARIO...WILL OFFER A FORECAST JUST SHY OF LIKELY POPS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY COOL AS
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE MAKES PROGRESS WESTWARD. THE COMBINATION OF MORE
CLOUD COVER AND MORE PRECIPITATION...ALONG WITH LOWER HEIGHTS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THIS. BY SATURDAY...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MAY BE
BISECTING THE REGION FROM NW-SE...THUS YIELDING NOTABLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AT LEAST FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE
AREA.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY THE
BATTLE BETWEEN LARGE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST TRYING TO BUILD INTO
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...WHILE TROUGH OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST DEEPENS
WHILE CLOSING OFF AND CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT IT WILL SET UP CLOSE
ENOUGH TO COAST TO PUSH BACK DOOR FRONT THROUGH AND WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BEFORE LIKELY WEAKENING AND ALLOWING
MORE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE TO BE FELT BY TUES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA IF WEAK/SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER WEDGE IS IN
PLACE EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE MIXING OUT OVER THE EAST.  WHILE
SURFACE WEDGE FRONT MAY BE WELL TO THE SOUTH DURING MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD...WITH STRONGEST SOUTHWARD PUSH ON SATURDAY...THE 850
BOUNDARY AND MOST LIKELY TRACK FOR UPPER S/WV ENERGY FROM THE NW IS
LIKELY TO BE RIGHT OVER THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA...AND THUS GOOD
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD.  TIMING
MOST LIKELY WINDOWS REMAINS TRICKY...AS MANY OF THESE WAVES ARE
STRONGLY INFLUENCE BY CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES THAT WILL DEVELOP WELL
UPSTREAM. LIKE THE TRENDS OVERALL THAT 12Z GFS IS TAKING...NOT ONLY
WITH RETURN TO SHARPER AMPLITUDE PATTERN...BUT IDEA OF TWO DISTINCT
WAVES HEADING FOR THE WESTERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA...ONE
SATURDAY AND ANOTHER ONE SUNDAY. EXACT TIMES MAY HELP DETERMINE IF
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY...WHICH WOULD LIKELY BE LIMITED TO
THE FAR WEST NEAR EDGE OF WEDGE BOUNDARY...BUT PERHAPS THE BIGGER
CONCERN IS RAINFALL THAT IS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE SAME AREAS AT LEAST
A COUPLE OF DAYS IN A ROW.

THERE COULD BE ANOTHER WAVE FOR MONDAY...BUT AS RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD IN AND TROUGH TO THE EAST AND ASSOCIATED WEDGE WEAKEN WHAT MAY
TEND TO OCCUR IS MORE DIURNAL POP-UP CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE BOUNDARY IN OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA
AS THE ATMOS DESTABILIZES MORE. BY TUESDAY THE SUPPORT TO KEEP WEDGE
IN PLACE SHOULD BE WEAKENING AS TROUGH LIFTS AND SFC HIGH SHIFTS
MORE EAST OF THE AREA...AND OVERALL IT LOOKS A LITTLE DRIER...BUT
NOT SURE ALL POPS CAN BE REMOVED.

GIVEN PATTERN WE`VE BEEN IN...REALLY DON`T HAVE CONFIDENCE TO DRY IT
OUT OR WARM IT UP TOO FAST...SO WILL LEAN TOWARD STRONGER INFLUENCE
OF THE WEDGE THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIP...WHICH WILL HELP STRENGTHEN THE WEDGE TOO.  UNDERCUT EVEN
COOLER ECMWF A LITTLE BIT FOR HIGHS...WITH A BIT MORE WARMING FOR
TUESDAY. BUT IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST THINGS MAY BE ABLE TO WARM UP VERY
QUICKLY A DAY OR TWO EARLIER THAN THIS IF THE WEDGE CAN BREAK AND
SOME OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE BIG UPPER RIDGE CAN BE REALIZED.  THIS
WILL EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP FOR OUR ENTIRE
AREA...BUT AM THINKING IT WILL NOT COME UNTIL MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

SCT-BKN STRATUS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH AREAS OF
MVFR VSBYS DUE TO FOG. FOG WILL BE THICKER IN THE MTN VALLEYS WITH
POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS AT BLF/LWB/BCB EARLY THIS MORNING.
INCREASING CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH SHRA/TSRA APPROACHING FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY MAY PREVENT THE FOG FROM BECOMING OVERLY DENSE...ANY
FOG DISSIPATING QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TODAY...AND INTO NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY. THE TROF AXIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS AXIS IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TODAY. ONGOING STORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT
APPROACHES THE MOUNTAINS OF WV AND FAR WRN VA AROUND
DAYBREAK...WITH REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS
BEFORE NOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE
OUTFLOW AND THEN MOVE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.

BKN LINE OF SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE TERMINAL AREAS
TODAY...PASSING THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN TERMINALS AROUND NOON...THEN
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. STORMINESS SHOULD
CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z/8PM THIS EVENING WITH ACTIVITY
MOVING EAST. AREAS OF FOG WILL THEN RE-DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF MVFR AND POTENTIAL FOR IFR VSBYS AGAIN
THURSDAY MORNING.


EXTENDED AVIATION... WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
UNSETTLED AND HIGHLY VARIABLE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A
STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS STALLED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH PERIODICALLY
RESULTING IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DUE TO THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR...EXPECT STRATUS AND
FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR MOST
PRONOUNCED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 9AM EACH DAY. MODELS ARE INDICATED
THAT A DEEPER EASTERLY SORT OF WIND FLOW WILL SETUP FOR THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS SUGGEST THAT LOW CIGS MAY PERSIST EVEN
DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD
MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND DUE TO MOISTURE
BANKING UP AGAINST THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...PM



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 200802
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
402 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT SLOWLY PULLS NORTH INTO THE AREA TODAY...THEN REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WK SFC LO PRES OFFSHORE CONTS TO SLOLY MOVE E AND AWAY FM THE
MDATLC CST TDA. LINGERING FNTL BNDRY S OF THE FA THIS MRNG...W/
SFC HI PRES TO THE NNE...RESULTING IN CONTD SFC FLO FM THE ENE
ACRS THE FA (IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SFC LO PRES). REMNANT BNDRY
TO THE S PULLS SLOLY N INTO THE FA TDA AS WK SFC LO PRES INVOF
LAKES/UPR OH VLY APPROACHES FM THE WNW. ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION ALG
WK CDFNT AND ASSOCIATED W/ MID/UPR LVL S/W MOVING THROUGH ERN OH
VLY ATTM. DURG TDA...PATCHY FG TO START...THOUGH RIGHT NOW NOT
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN FCST...THEN XPCG VRB CLDS TO PCLDY WX ACRS
FA. MAY BE AN ISOLD SHRA INVOF CSTL SE VA/NE NC THIS MRNG...AND
PSBLY FAR WNW AREAS IN FA. OTRW...FM MIDDAY THROUGH AFTN/EVE
HRS...SCT CONVECTION PSBL...ESP NRN PORTION OF FA...AS SYS PASSES
BY JUST TO THE N OF THE FA. HI TEMPS FM THE L/M80S AT THE CST...TO
M/U80S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE OVERALL PATTERN IS AGREED UPON IN THE MID RANGE PART OF THE
FORECAST AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SLIDES INTO THE
EAST AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MS VALLEY BUILDS
NORTHWARD...SETTING UP NW FLO ALOFT OVER OF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. HOWEVER...BEYOND THE THAT...THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MAKES THE TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION VERY UNCERTAIN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...A WK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE IN THE VICINITY SHOULD
BE SOME STATIONARY AND NRLY PARALLEL TO THE FLOW ALOFT AND COULD
ALSO BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. AT THIS POINT...WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY...WILL CONT TO LEAN MORE TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY WITH BEST
CHANCES IN THE PIEDMONT EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN AREA WIDE
IN LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT.

LO TEMPS TNGT FM THE M60S TO ARND 70F. HI TEMPS THU FM THE M80S AT
THE CST TO L90S INLAND. HI TEMPS FRI IN THE L/M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN NWLY
FLOW ALOFT...BUT DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE...LATE SUMMER NORMS TO BEGIN THE
EXTENDED BEFORE RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW DURING THE EXTENDED IS HIGHLIGHTED BY SPLIT/BLOCKY
FLOW OFF THE ERN CANADA AND NERN US COAST AND AMPLIFYING HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SRN CONUS. THIS PLACES THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION IN
NWLY FLOW ALOFT. ASSOCIATED BACK DOOR FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA SATURDAY MORNING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED OVER THE NE
WILL RIDGE SWWD ALONG THE COAST AND INTO CNTRL VA. NLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW INDICATED IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WILL DRIVE DEWPOINTS
DOWNWARD INTO THE MID 60S. HOWEVER...MODEL DERIVED PWATS REMAIN
AROUND 1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES. COMBINED WITH PERTURBATIONS IN THE NWLY
FLOW...WILL HAVE MNLY CLDY WX AND MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH
FOR POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM...ROUNDING THE RIDGE AND
DROPPING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT THRU THE WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO LOCATE OFF THE COAST. BLOCK WILL
REMAIN OFF THE NE COAST...BUT MOISTURE FEED WILL BE CUT OFF.
DECREASING MOISTURE AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM...SO WILL
LEAVE POPS SILENT.

NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THICKNESSES AND GUIDANCE YIELD TEMPS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S THRU MONDAY (AROUND -1 STD DEV). OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S NEAR THE WATER. WARMING BACK
UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH BEHIND
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES IN A W/NW
FLOW WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MOIST
GROUND AND LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL MAINTAIN THE CHC FOR ISSUES
WITH CIG/VSBY EACH MORNING.

AS OF 06Z...NE WINDS PREVAILED AT THE TAF SITES WITH NO PCPN
EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING. SKY CONDITIONS WILL BE VARIABLE WITH
GRADUAL LOWERING OF CIGS AND VSBYS. THE MAIN LIMITATION IS
INDICATED TO BE CIGS BUT VSBYS ARE NOT OFF THE TABLE. USED THE
RESULTS OF THE PREVIOUS OVERNIGHT AS A PARTIAL GUIDE AND A MIX OF
MOS GUIDANCE TO MAKE A PLAN FOR THE CURRENT TAF. DESPITE ECG
HAVING THE CLOSEST T/TD SPREAD...EXPERIENCE WOULD INDICATE THEY
MAY NOT GO DOWN TO IFR FOR A WHILE (I.E. AROUND 12Z) AND MAY HAVE
NO LOWER THAN MVFR. HAVE RIC/PHF WITH SOME PERIODS OF IFR. SBY MOS
IS BIASED BY TEMPERATURES THAT ARE TOO LOW. KEPT ORF OUT OF IFR
DUE TO CLIMATOLOGY.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR BY AROUND 14-15Z. LATER TODAY...THERE
WILL BE A CHC FOR LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS...ESPECIALLY NORTH
PORTIONS. WINDS VEER TOWARD E/SE.

OUTLOOK...CHC FOR AFTN TSTMS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME
MVFR/IFR PSBL NEAR SUNRISE EACH MORNING. CURRENT FORECAST IS DRY ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. HI PRES PERSISTS JUST N
OF THE AREA TDA AS LO PRES AND AN ASSOCIATED FRNTAL BNDRY SLOWLY
SLIDE SE OF THE WTRS. THE RESULT WILL BE NE FLOW MAINLY 5-10 KT OVR
THE BAY/SOUND/RIVERS AND 10-15 KT OVR CSTL WTRS. EXPECT 2-3 FT SEAS
OVR THE OCEAN AND 1-2 FT WAVES OVR THE BAY FOR TDA INTO TNGT.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BNDRY LIFTS N AS A
WARM FRNT THU INTO FRI...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE OVR THE WEEKEND.
DURING THE WEEKEND...THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH NELY WINDS
INCREASING TO 10-20 KT. THIS WILL PUSH SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS TO 3-4
FT...WITH 5 FT PSBL 20NM OUT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/ESS
NEAR TERM...ALB/ESS/JAO
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS/LSA
MARINE...MAS















000
FXUS61 KAKQ 200802
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
402 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT SLOWLY PULLS NORTH INTO THE AREA TODAY...THEN REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WK SFC LO PRES OFFSHORE CONTS TO SLOLY MOVE E AND AWAY FM THE
MDATLC CST TDA. LINGERING FNTL BNDRY S OF THE FA THIS MRNG...W/
SFC HI PRES TO THE NNE...RESULTING IN CONTD SFC FLO FM THE ENE
ACRS THE FA (IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SFC LO PRES). REMNANT BNDRY
TO THE S PULLS SLOLY N INTO THE FA TDA AS WK SFC LO PRES INVOF
LAKES/UPR OH VLY APPROACHES FM THE WNW. ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION ALG
WK CDFNT AND ASSOCIATED W/ MID/UPR LVL S/W MOVING THROUGH ERN OH
VLY ATTM. DURG TDA...PATCHY FG TO START...THOUGH RIGHT NOW NOT
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN FCST...THEN XPCG VRB CLDS TO PCLDY WX ACRS
FA. MAY BE AN ISOLD SHRA INVOF CSTL SE VA/NE NC THIS MRNG...AND
PSBLY FAR WNW AREAS IN FA. OTRW...FM MIDDAY THROUGH AFTN/EVE
HRS...SCT CONVECTION PSBL...ESP NRN PORTION OF FA...AS SYS PASSES
BY JUST TO THE N OF THE FA. HI TEMPS FM THE L/M80S AT THE CST...TO
M/U80S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE OVERALL PATTERN IS AGREED UPON IN THE MID RANGE PART OF THE
FORECAST AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SLIDES INTO THE
EAST AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MS VALLEY BUILDS
NORTHWARD...SETTING UP NW FLO ALOFT OVER OF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. HOWEVER...BEYOND THE THAT...THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MAKES THE TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION VERY UNCERTAIN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...A WK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE IN THE VICINITY SHOULD
BE SOME STATIONARY AND NRLY PARALLEL TO THE FLOW ALOFT AND COULD
ALSO BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. AT THIS POINT...WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY...WILL CONT TO LEAN MORE TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY WITH BEST
CHANCES IN THE PIEDMONT EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN AREA WIDE
IN LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT.

LO TEMPS TNGT FM THE M60S TO ARND 70F. HI TEMPS THU FM THE M80S AT
THE CST TO L90S INLAND. HI TEMPS FRI IN THE L/M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN NWLY
FLOW ALOFT...BUT DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE...LATE SUMMER NORMS TO BEGIN THE
EXTENDED BEFORE RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW DURING THE EXTENDED IS HIGHLIGHTED BY SPLIT/BLOCKY
FLOW OFF THE ERN CANADA AND NERN US COAST AND AMPLIFYING HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SRN CONUS. THIS PLACES THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION IN
NWLY FLOW ALOFT. ASSOCIATED BACK DOOR FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA SATURDAY MORNING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED OVER THE NE
WILL RIDGE SWWD ALONG THE COAST AND INTO CNTRL VA. NLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW INDICATED IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WILL DRIVE DEWPOINTS
DOWNWARD INTO THE MID 60S. HOWEVER...MODEL DERIVED PWATS REMAIN
AROUND 1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES. COMBINED WITH PERTURBATIONS IN THE NWLY
FLOW...WILL HAVE MNLY CLDY WX AND MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH
FOR POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM...ROUNDING THE RIDGE AND
DROPPING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT THRU THE WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO LOCATE OFF THE COAST. BLOCK WILL
REMAIN OFF THE NE COAST...BUT MOISTURE FEED WILL BE CUT OFF.
DECREASING MOISTURE AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM...SO WILL
LEAVE POPS SILENT.

NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THICKNESSES AND GUIDANCE YIELD TEMPS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S THRU MONDAY (AROUND -1 STD DEV). OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S NEAR THE WATER. WARMING BACK
UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH BEHIND
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES IN A W/NW
FLOW WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MOIST
GROUND AND LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL MAINTAIN THE CHC FOR ISSUES
WITH CIG/VSBY EACH MORNING.

AS OF 06Z...NE WINDS PREVAILED AT THE TAF SITES WITH NO PCPN
EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING. SKY CONDITIONS WILL BE VARIABLE WITH
GRADUAL LOWERING OF CIGS AND VSBYS. THE MAIN LIMITATION IS
INDICATED TO BE CIGS BUT VSBYS ARE NOT OFF THE TABLE. USED THE
RESULTS OF THE PREVIOUS OVERNIGHT AS A PARTIAL GUIDE AND A MIX OF
MOS GUIDANCE TO MAKE A PLAN FOR THE CURRENT TAF. DESPITE ECG
HAVING THE CLOSEST T/TD SPREAD...EXPERIENCE WOULD INDICATE THEY
MAY NOT GO DOWN TO IFR FOR A WHILE (I.E. AROUND 12Z) AND MAY HAVE
NO LOWER THAN MVFR. HAVE RIC/PHF WITH SOME PERIODS OF IFR. SBY MOS
IS BIASED BY TEMPERATURES THAT ARE TOO LOW. KEPT ORF OUT OF IFR
DUE TO CLIMATOLOGY.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR BY AROUND 14-15Z. LATER TODAY...THERE
WILL BE A CHC FOR LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS...ESPECIALLY NORTH
PORTIONS. WINDS VEER TOWARD E/SE.

OUTLOOK...CHC FOR AFTN TSTMS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME
MVFR/IFR PSBL NEAR SUNRISE EACH MORNING. CURRENT FORECAST IS DRY ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. HI PRES PERSISTS JUST N
OF THE AREA TDA AS LO PRES AND AN ASSOCIATED FRNTAL BNDRY SLOWLY
SLIDE SE OF THE WTRS. THE RESULT WILL BE NE FLOW MAINLY 5-10 KT OVR
THE BAY/SOUND/RIVERS AND 10-15 KT OVR CSTL WTRS. EXPECT 2-3 FT SEAS
OVR THE OCEAN AND 1-2 FT WAVES OVR THE BAY FOR TDA INTO TNGT.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BNDRY LIFTS N AS A
WARM FRNT THU INTO FRI...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE OVR THE WEEKEND.
DURING THE WEEKEND...THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH NELY WINDS
INCREASING TO 10-20 KT. THIS WILL PUSH SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS TO 3-4
FT...WITH 5 FT PSBL 20NM OUT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/ESS
NEAR TERM...ALB/ESS/JAO
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS/LSA
MARINE...MAS
















000
FXUS61 KLWX 200735
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
335 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH AND WEST AS A COLD FRONT FRIDAY
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL EXTEND INTO OUR AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST DURING THIS TIME
DUE TO PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL MARYLAND INTO
CENTRAL VIRGINIA EARLY THIS MORNING. A DECAYING MCS IS MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

THE DECAYING MCS MAY CLIP THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS WITH A FEW SHOWERS
EARLY THIS MORNING. A STRAY SHOWER CANNOT RULED OUT ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL MARYLAND INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...BUT MOST OF
THE TIME WILL TURN OUT DRY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH
THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL RESULT IN SOME LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND WEST OF THE BOUNDARY.

THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY AND THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A
WEAK DEWPOINT GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY...BUT THERE WILL
BE LITTLE TO NO TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY AHEAD OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING
THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...AND EVENTUALLY TOWARD THE
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...AND PLENTY
OF MOISTURE WILL LIMIT DCAPE...SO ANY SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE LIMITED
AT BEST. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN NEAR AND WEST OF
THE BOUNDARY WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHEST. THERE WILL BE SOME
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR SEASONABLY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO THE MIDDLE 80S ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.

COVERAGE IN CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH THE
BOUNDARY NEARBY AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH...A FEW SHOWERS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AS WELL. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH MIN
TEMPS RANGING FROM NEAR 60 IN THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS TO THE LOWER
70S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE
AREA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY FROM CENTRAL MARYLAND THROUGH CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND THE
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD. MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH COVERAGE BEING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MAX
TEMPS THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID
AND UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS TO THE
LOWER 70S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH
THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
H5 PTTN MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED/ACTIVE THAN NORMAL FOR LT AUG...BUT THEN
AGAIN THIS HASNT BEEN A TYPICAL SUMMER. A SUBTROPICAL RDG WL BE
ANCHORED OVER THE MS VLY THRU MUCH OF THE PD. THAT LEAVES CWFA IN NW
FLOW ALOFT...AND TEMPS COOLER THAN CLIMO. WUD LOVE TO BE AS
DEFINITIVE W/ POPS. HWVR...SUBSIDENCE WL BE CONFINED TO OVER NEW
ENGLAND. WHILE AMS LKLY WONT BE OUTRIGHT CAPPED...THERE ARENT
SPECIFIC DISCERNABLE FORCING MECHANISMS EITHER...BUT THERE WL BE THE
JETSTREAM ABV AREA AT HIER LVLS. THAT LEAVES SENSIBLE WX SUSCEPTIBLE
TO MID-UPA DYNAMICS SUCH AS S/WV IMPULSES EMBEDDED W/IN MEAN LYR
FLOW. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THERE WL BE SUCH A DISTURBANCE FRI NGT
INTO SAT. INSTBY MEAGER...AND BECOME INCREASINGLY LMTD AS SFC FLOW
BECOMES ELY.

BYD THAT...EVEN BROAD DETAILS BECOME PROBLEMATIC. BY ELY NXT WK...
RDGG SHUD RETROGRADE...PROVIDING A BETTER BET AT SOME DRY CONDS IN
THE CSTL PLAIN. STILL CANT RULE OUT A SHRA IN THE MTNS...BUT THE
CHCS FAR LESS.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN TERMINALS. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MORE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

FLGT RESTRICTIONS PROBABLE W/IN SHRA/TSRA THRU THE WKND. HWVR...
AREAL CVRG A WILD CARD. FRI NGT-SAT LOOK TO BE THE WETTEST PART OF
THE OUTLOOK ATTM.
&&

.MARINE...
A BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE WEAK ENOUGH TO PREVENT SCA CRITERIA
WINDS DURING THIS TIME. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND
AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

ATTM NO ADVYS XPCTD THRU THIS WKND. HWVR UNSTTLD CONDS WL PREVAIL...
AND CANNOT PRECLUDE A FEW MARINE WRNGS INVOF TSRA.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT IT WILL REMAIN
WEAK. THE FLOW MAY TURN MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WOULD CAUSE
WATER LEVELS TO BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN RECENTLY.
THIS WILL CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO BE CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...BJL/HTS
MARINE...BJL/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL








000
FXUS61 KLWX 200735
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
335 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH AND WEST AS A COLD FRONT FRIDAY
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL EXTEND INTO OUR AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST DURING THIS TIME
DUE TO PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL MARYLAND INTO
CENTRAL VIRGINIA EARLY THIS MORNING. A DECAYING MCS IS MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

THE DECAYING MCS MAY CLIP THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS WITH A FEW SHOWERS
EARLY THIS MORNING. A STRAY SHOWER CANNOT RULED OUT ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL MARYLAND INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...BUT MOST OF
THE TIME WILL TURN OUT DRY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH
THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL RESULT IN SOME LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND WEST OF THE BOUNDARY.

THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY AND THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A
WEAK DEWPOINT GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY...BUT THERE WILL
BE LITTLE TO NO TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY AHEAD OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING
THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...AND EVENTUALLY TOWARD THE
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...AND PLENTY
OF MOISTURE WILL LIMIT DCAPE...SO ANY SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE LIMITED
AT BEST. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN NEAR AND WEST OF
THE BOUNDARY WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHEST. THERE WILL BE SOME
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR SEASONABLY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO THE MIDDLE 80S ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.

COVERAGE IN CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH THE
BOUNDARY NEARBY AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH...A FEW SHOWERS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AS WELL. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH MIN
TEMPS RANGING FROM NEAR 60 IN THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS TO THE LOWER
70S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE
AREA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY FROM CENTRAL MARYLAND THROUGH CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND THE
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD. MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH COVERAGE BEING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MAX
TEMPS THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID
AND UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS TO THE
LOWER 70S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH
THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
H5 PTTN MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED/ACTIVE THAN NORMAL FOR LT AUG...BUT THEN
AGAIN THIS HASNT BEEN A TYPICAL SUMMER. A SUBTROPICAL RDG WL BE
ANCHORED OVER THE MS VLY THRU MUCH OF THE PD. THAT LEAVES CWFA IN NW
FLOW ALOFT...AND TEMPS COOLER THAN CLIMO. WUD LOVE TO BE AS
DEFINITIVE W/ POPS. HWVR...SUBSIDENCE WL BE CONFINED TO OVER NEW
ENGLAND. WHILE AMS LKLY WONT BE OUTRIGHT CAPPED...THERE ARENT
SPECIFIC DISCERNABLE FORCING MECHANISMS EITHER...BUT THERE WL BE THE
JETSTREAM ABV AREA AT HIER LVLS. THAT LEAVES SENSIBLE WX SUSCEPTIBLE
TO MID-UPA DYNAMICS SUCH AS S/WV IMPULSES EMBEDDED W/IN MEAN LYR
FLOW. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THERE WL BE SUCH A DISTURBANCE FRI NGT
INTO SAT. INSTBY MEAGER...AND BECOME INCREASINGLY LMTD AS SFC FLOW
BECOMES ELY.

BYD THAT...EVEN BROAD DETAILS BECOME PROBLEMATIC. BY ELY NXT WK...
RDGG SHUD RETROGRADE...PROVIDING A BETTER BET AT SOME DRY CONDS IN
THE CSTL PLAIN. STILL CANT RULE OUT A SHRA IN THE MTNS...BUT THE
CHCS FAR LESS.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN TERMINALS. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MORE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

FLGT RESTRICTIONS PROBABLE W/IN SHRA/TSRA THRU THE WKND. HWVR...
AREAL CVRG A WILD CARD. FRI NGT-SAT LOOK TO BE THE WETTEST PART OF
THE OUTLOOK ATTM.
&&

.MARINE...
A BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE WEAK ENOUGH TO PREVENT SCA CRITERIA
WINDS DURING THIS TIME. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND
AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

ATTM NO ADVYS XPCTD THRU THIS WKND. HWVR UNSTTLD CONDS WL PREVAIL...
AND CANNOT PRECLUDE A FEW MARINE WRNGS INVOF TSRA.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT IT WILL REMAIN
WEAK. THE FLOW MAY TURN MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WOULD CAUSE
WATER LEVELS TO BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN RECENTLY.
THIS WILL CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO BE CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...BJL/HTS
MARINE...BJL/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL








000
FXUS61 KLWX 200735
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
335 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH AND WEST AS A COLD FRONT FRIDAY
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL EXTEND INTO OUR AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST DURING THIS TIME
DUE TO PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL MARYLAND INTO
CENTRAL VIRGINIA EARLY THIS MORNING. A DECAYING MCS IS MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

THE DECAYING MCS MAY CLIP THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS WITH A FEW SHOWERS
EARLY THIS MORNING. A STRAY SHOWER CANNOT RULED OUT ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL MARYLAND INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...BUT MOST OF
THE TIME WILL TURN OUT DRY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH
THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL RESULT IN SOME LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND WEST OF THE BOUNDARY.

THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY AND THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A
WEAK DEWPOINT GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY...BUT THERE WILL
BE LITTLE TO NO TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY AHEAD OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING
THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...AND EVENTUALLY TOWARD THE
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...AND PLENTY
OF MOISTURE WILL LIMIT DCAPE...SO ANY SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE LIMITED
AT BEST. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN NEAR AND WEST OF
THE BOUNDARY WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHEST. THERE WILL BE SOME
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR SEASONABLY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO THE MIDDLE 80S ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.

COVERAGE IN CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH THE
BOUNDARY NEARBY AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH...A FEW SHOWERS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AS WELL. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH MIN
TEMPS RANGING FROM NEAR 60 IN THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS TO THE LOWER
70S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE
AREA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY FROM CENTRAL MARYLAND THROUGH CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND THE
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD. MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH COVERAGE BEING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MAX
TEMPS THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID
AND UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS TO THE
LOWER 70S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH
THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
H5 PTTN MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED/ACTIVE THAN NORMAL FOR LT AUG...BUT THEN
AGAIN THIS HASNT BEEN A TYPICAL SUMMER. A SUBTROPICAL RDG WL BE
ANCHORED OVER THE MS VLY THRU MUCH OF THE PD. THAT LEAVES CWFA IN NW
FLOW ALOFT...AND TEMPS COOLER THAN CLIMO. WUD LOVE TO BE AS
DEFINITIVE W/ POPS. HWVR...SUBSIDENCE WL BE CONFINED TO OVER NEW
ENGLAND. WHILE AMS LKLY WONT BE OUTRIGHT CAPPED...THERE ARENT
SPECIFIC DISCERNABLE FORCING MECHANISMS EITHER...BUT THERE WL BE THE
JETSTREAM ABV AREA AT HIER LVLS. THAT LEAVES SENSIBLE WX SUSCEPTIBLE
TO MID-UPA DYNAMICS SUCH AS S/WV IMPULSES EMBEDDED W/IN MEAN LYR
FLOW. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THERE WL BE SUCH A DISTURBANCE FRI NGT
INTO SAT. INSTBY MEAGER...AND BECOME INCREASINGLY LMTD AS SFC FLOW
BECOMES ELY.

BYD THAT...EVEN BROAD DETAILS BECOME PROBLEMATIC. BY ELY NXT WK...
RDGG SHUD RETROGRADE...PROVIDING A BETTER BET AT SOME DRY CONDS IN
THE CSTL PLAIN. STILL CANT RULE OUT A SHRA IN THE MTNS...BUT THE
CHCS FAR LESS.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN TERMINALS. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MORE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

FLGT RESTRICTIONS PROBABLE W/IN SHRA/TSRA THRU THE WKND. HWVR...
AREAL CVRG A WILD CARD. FRI NGT-SAT LOOK TO BE THE WETTEST PART OF
THE OUTLOOK ATTM.
&&

.MARINE...
A BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE WEAK ENOUGH TO PREVENT SCA CRITERIA
WINDS DURING THIS TIME. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND
AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

ATTM NO ADVYS XPCTD THRU THIS WKND. HWVR UNSTTLD CONDS WL PREVAIL...
AND CANNOT PRECLUDE A FEW MARINE WRNGS INVOF TSRA.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT IT WILL REMAIN
WEAK. THE FLOW MAY TURN MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WOULD CAUSE
WATER LEVELS TO BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN RECENTLY.
THIS WILL CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO BE CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...BJL/HTS
MARINE...BJL/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL








000
FXUS61 KLWX 200735
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
335 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH AND WEST AS A COLD FRONT FRIDAY
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL EXTEND INTO OUR AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST DURING THIS TIME
DUE TO PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL MARYLAND INTO
CENTRAL VIRGINIA EARLY THIS MORNING. A DECAYING MCS IS MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

THE DECAYING MCS MAY CLIP THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS WITH A FEW SHOWERS
EARLY THIS MORNING. A STRAY SHOWER CANNOT RULED OUT ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL MARYLAND INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...BUT MOST OF
THE TIME WILL TURN OUT DRY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH
THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL RESULT IN SOME LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND WEST OF THE BOUNDARY.

THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY AND THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A
WEAK DEWPOINT GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY...BUT THERE WILL
BE LITTLE TO NO TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY AHEAD OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING
THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...AND EVENTUALLY TOWARD THE
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...AND PLENTY
OF MOISTURE WILL LIMIT DCAPE...SO ANY SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE LIMITED
AT BEST. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN NEAR AND WEST OF
THE BOUNDARY WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHEST. THERE WILL BE SOME
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR SEASONABLY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO THE MIDDLE 80S ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.

COVERAGE IN CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH THE
BOUNDARY NEARBY AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH...A FEW SHOWERS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AS WELL. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH MIN
TEMPS RANGING FROM NEAR 60 IN THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS TO THE LOWER
70S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE
AREA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY FROM CENTRAL MARYLAND THROUGH CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND THE
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD. MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH COVERAGE BEING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MAX
TEMPS THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID
AND UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS TO THE
LOWER 70S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH
THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
H5 PTTN MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED/ACTIVE THAN NORMAL FOR LT AUG...BUT THEN
AGAIN THIS HASNT BEEN A TYPICAL SUMMER. A SUBTROPICAL RDG WL BE
ANCHORED OVER THE MS VLY THRU MUCH OF THE PD. THAT LEAVES CWFA IN NW
FLOW ALOFT...AND TEMPS COOLER THAN CLIMO. WUD LOVE TO BE AS
DEFINITIVE W/ POPS. HWVR...SUBSIDENCE WL BE CONFINED TO OVER NEW
ENGLAND. WHILE AMS LKLY WONT BE OUTRIGHT CAPPED...THERE ARENT
SPECIFIC DISCERNABLE FORCING MECHANISMS EITHER...BUT THERE WL BE THE
JETSTREAM ABV AREA AT HIER LVLS. THAT LEAVES SENSIBLE WX SUSCEPTIBLE
TO MID-UPA DYNAMICS SUCH AS S/WV IMPULSES EMBEDDED W/IN MEAN LYR
FLOW. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THERE WL BE SUCH A DISTURBANCE FRI NGT
INTO SAT. INSTBY MEAGER...AND BECOME INCREASINGLY LMTD AS SFC FLOW
BECOMES ELY.

BYD THAT...EVEN BROAD DETAILS BECOME PROBLEMATIC. BY ELY NXT WK...
RDGG SHUD RETROGRADE...PROVIDING A BETTER BET AT SOME DRY CONDS IN
THE CSTL PLAIN. STILL CANT RULE OUT A SHRA IN THE MTNS...BUT THE
CHCS FAR LESS.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN TERMINALS. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MORE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

FLGT RESTRICTIONS PROBABLE W/IN SHRA/TSRA THRU THE WKND. HWVR...
AREAL CVRG A WILD CARD. FRI NGT-SAT LOOK TO BE THE WETTEST PART OF
THE OUTLOOK ATTM.
&&

.MARINE...
A BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE WEAK ENOUGH TO PREVENT SCA CRITERIA
WINDS DURING THIS TIME. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND
AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

ATTM NO ADVYS XPCTD THRU THIS WKND. HWVR UNSTTLD CONDS WL PREVAIL...
AND CANNOT PRECLUDE A FEW MARINE WRNGS INVOF TSRA.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT IT WILL REMAIN
WEAK. THE FLOW MAY TURN MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WOULD CAUSE
WATER LEVELS TO BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN RECENTLY.
THIS WILL CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO BE CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...BJL/HTS
MARINE...BJL/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 200619
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
219 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT...WHILE A WEAK FRONT SLOWLY SINKS SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN
VA. THE FRONT RETURNS AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...AND REMAINS
STALLED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE FLOW OFF
THE WATER AND IN THE WEST AS A FEW SHOWERS DROP SOUTHEAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
OVERNIGHT WILL BE ISOLATED. HAVE ALSO ADDED A MENTION OF SOME
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST FOR A BRIEF PERIOD FROM 07Z-
10Z. FOG SHOULD NOT BECOME DENSE AND WIDESPREAD VSBYS WILL LIKELY
NOT DROP LOWER THAN 2 MILES THOUGH A FEW PATCHY SPOTS COULD DROP
TO 1 MILES OR LESS ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHICH HAVE RECEIVED A LOT OF RAIN
OVER THE LAST 36 HOURS.

THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE VA CAPES CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST AND WINDS HAVE INCREASED ALONG THE
COAST WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND WIND
FIELDS THE WEAK FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST NC THEN
EXTENDS NW TO NEAR LAKE GASTON. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
A FEW MORE DEGREES THAN LAST NIGHT WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S IN NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND LOW 70S SOUTH.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO DIG
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL FORCE THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA TO LIFT
BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. WITH SOME DAYTIME HEATING AND THE
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL AROUND...SHOULD SEE SOME
AFTERNOON TO EVENING CONVECTION FORM IN THE PIEDMONT AND THEN HEAD
EASTWARD WITH THE WARM FRONT. THE 12Z NAM IS MORE EXCITED AND MUCH
MORE LIFT THAN THE GFS OR ECMWF. THE MODELS TEND TO AGREE ON AREAS
ACROSS NORTHERN VA FOR RAIN BUT NOT AS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH SO HAVE
TAPERED POPS A BIT LOWER IN THE SOUTH. FOR TEMPERATURES HAVE
LEANED TOWARD THE MET NUMBERS AS THE MAV HAVE BEEN TOO WARM...BUT
SHOULD SEE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH MORE SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE OVERALL PATTERN IS AGREED UPON IN THE MID RANGE PART OF THE
FORECAST AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SLIDES INTO THE
EAST AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MS VALLEY BUILDS
NORTHWARD...SETTING UP NW OVER OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
HOWEVER...BEYOND THE THAT...THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MAKES THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION
VERY UNCERTAIN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE IN THE VICINITY SHOULD BE SOME
STATIONARY AND PARALLEL TO THE FLOW ALOFT AND COULD ALSO BE A
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. AT THIS POINT...WITH THE UNCERTAINTY...LEANED
MORE TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE PIEDMONT EARLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND THEN AREA WIDE IN LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. SUCCEEDING MODEL RUNS WILL HOPEFULLY IMPROVE THE
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL WAVES AND COMPLEXES.

FOR TEMPERATURES...CONTINUED A SLOW WARMING TREND FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT DID NOT GO AS WARM AS THE MAV NUMBERS...LEANING
TOWARD THE MET NUMBERS WHICH LEANED TOWARD THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S ON THURSDAY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER ON FRIDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS
POSSIBLE. FOR LOWS HAVE LEANED WARM THAN GUIDANCE THINKING MORE
CLOUDS AROUND AND A MORE HUMID AIR MASS LIMITING THE COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN NWLY
FLOW ALOFT...BUT DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE...LATE SUMMER NORMS TO BEGIN THE
EXTENDED BEFORE RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW DURING THE EXTENDED IS HIGHLIGHTED BY SPLIT/BLOCKY
FLOW OFF THE ERN CANADA AND NERN US COAST AND AMPLIFYING HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SRN CONUS. THIS PLACES THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION IN
NWLY FLOW ALOFT. ASSOCIATED BACK DOOR FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA SATURDAY MORNING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED OVER THE NE
WILL RIDGE SWWD ALONG THE COAST AND INTO CNTRL VA. NLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW INDICATED IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WILL DRIVE DEWPOINTS
DOWNWARD INTO THE MID 60S. HOWEVER...MODEL DERIVED PWATS REMAIN
AROUND 1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES. COMBINED WITH PERTURBATIONS IN THE NWLY
FLOW...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE MCS
DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM...ROUNDING THE RIDGE AND DROPPING INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT THRU THE WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED
TO LOCATE OFF THE COAST. BLOCK WILL REMAIN OFF THE NE COAST...BUT
MOISTURE FEED WILL BE CUT OFF. DECREASING MOISTURE AND INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM...SO WILL LEAVE POPS SILENT.

NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THICKNESSES AND GUIDANCE YIELD TEMPS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S THRU MONDAY (AROUND -1 STD DEV). OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S NEAR THE WATER. WARMING BACK
UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH BEHIND
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES IN A W/NW
FLOW WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MOIST
GROUND AND LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL MAINTAIN THE CHC FOR ISSUES
WITH CIG/VSBY EACH MORNING.

AS OF 06Z...NE WINDS PREVAILED AT THE TAF SITES WITH NO PCPN
EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING. SKY CONDITIONS WILL BE VARIABLE WITH
GRADUAL LOWERING OF CIGS AND VSBYS. THE MAIN LIMITATION IS
INDICATED TO BE CIGS BUT VSBYS ARE NOT OFF THE TABLE. USED THE
RESULTS OF THE PREVIOUS OVERNIGHT AS A PARTIAL GUIDE AND A MIX OF
MOS GUIDANCE TO MAKE A PLAN FOR THE CURRENT TAF. DESPITE ECG
HAVING THE CLOSEST T/TD SPREAD...EXPERIENCE WOULD INDICATE THEY
MAY NOT GO DOWN TO IFR FOR A WHILE (I.E. AROUND 12Z) AND MAY HAVE
NO LOWER THAN MVFR. HAVE RIC/PHF WITH SOME PERIODS OF IFR. SBY MOS
IS BIASED BY TEMPERATURES THAT ARE TOO LOW. KEPT ORF OUT OF IFR
DUE TO CLIMATOLOGY.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR BY AROUND 14-15Z. LATER TODAY...THERE
WILL BE A CHC FOR LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS...ESPECIALLY NORTH
PORTIONS. WINDS VEER TOWARD E/SE.

OUTLOOK...CHC FOR AFTN TSTMS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME
MVFR/IFR PSBL NEAR SUNRISE EACH MORNING. CURRENT FORECAST IS DRY ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE
HAS JUST LOCATED OFF THE VA CAPES THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING WWD OVER SRN VA. GENERALLY ONSHORE FLOW 10-15 KT
OVER THE WATERS...NORTH OF THE LOW. SEAS HAVE ALSO BUILT TO 3-4 FT
IN THE NRN WATERS. WAVES GENERALLY 1-2 FT. LOW PRESSURE PUSHES
SLOWLY OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVER THE NRN
WATERS. LOW PRESSURE REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK
AS A WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER NEW ENGLAND...RIDGING SWD OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THE RESULT WILL
BE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW...AVG AROUND 10 KT. SEAS REMAIN 2-3 FT.
BY THE WEEKEND...THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH NELY WINDS INCREASING TO
10-15 KT. WILL PUSH SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS TO 3-4 FT...WITH 5 FT
POSSIBLE 20NM OUT. FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE WATERS SAT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS
NEAR TERM...ESS/JAO
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS/LSA
MARINE...SAM






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 200619
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
219 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT...WHILE A WEAK FRONT SLOWLY SINKS SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN
VA. THE FRONT RETURNS AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...AND REMAINS
STALLED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE FLOW OFF
THE WATER AND IN THE WEST AS A FEW SHOWERS DROP SOUTHEAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
OVERNIGHT WILL BE ISOLATED. HAVE ALSO ADDED A MENTION OF SOME
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST FOR A BRIEF PERIOD FROM 07Z-
10Z. FOG SHOULD NOT BECOME DENSE AND WIDESPREAD VSBYS WILL LIKELY
NOT DROP LOWER THAN 2 MILES THOUGH A FEW PATCHY SPOTS COULD DROP
TO 1 MILES OR LESS ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHICH HAVE RECEIVED A LOT OF RAIN
OVER THE LAST 36 HOURS.

THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE VA CAPES CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST AND WINDS HAVE INCREASED ALONG THE
COAST WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND WIND
FIELDS THE WEAK FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST NC THEN
EXTENDS NW TO NEAR LAKE GASTON. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
A FEW MORE DEGREES THAN LAST NIGHT WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S IN NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND LOW 70S SOUTH.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO DIG
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL FORCE THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA TO LIFT
BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. WITH SOME DAYTIME HEATING AND THE
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL AROUND...SHOULD SEE SOME
AFTERNOON TO EVENING CONVECTION FORM IN THE PIEDMONT AND THEN HEAD
EASTWARD WITH THE WARM FRONT. THE 12Z NAM IS MORE EXCITED AND MUCH
MORE LIFT THAN THE GFS OR ECMWF. THE MODELS TEND TO AGREE ON AREAS
ACROSS NORTHERN VA FOR RAIN BUT NOT AS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH SO HAVE
TAPERED POPS A BIT LOWER IN THE SOUTH. FOR TEMPERATURES HAVE
LEANED TOWARD THE MET NUMBERS AS THE MAV HAVE BEEN TOO WARM...BUT
SHOULD SEE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH MORE SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE OVERALL PATTERN IS AGREED UPON IN THE MID RANGE PART OF THE
FORECAST AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SLIDES INTO THE
EAST AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MS VALLEY BUILDS
NORTHWARD...SETTING UP NW OVER OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
HOWEVER...BEYOND THE THAT...THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MAKES THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION
VERY UNCERTAIN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE IN THE VICINITY SHOULD BE SOME
STATIONARY AND PARALLEL TO THE FLOW ALOFT AND COULD ALSO BE A
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. AT THIS POINT...WITH THE UNCERTAINTY...LEANED
MORE TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE PIEDMONT EARLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND THEN AREA WIDE IN LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. SUCCEEDING MODEL RUNS WILL HOPEFULLY IMPROVE THE
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL WAVES AND COMPLEXES.

FOR TEMPERATURES...CONTINUED A SLOW WARMING TREND FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT DID NOT GO AS WARM AS THE MAV NUMBERS...LEANING
TOWARD THE MET NUMBERS WHICH LEANED TOWARD THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S ON THURSDAY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER ON FRIDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS
POSSIBLE. FOR LOWS HAVE LEANED WARM THAN GUIDANCE THINKING MORE
CLOUDS AROUND AND A MORE HUMID AIR MASS LIMITING THE COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN NWLY
FLOW ALOFT...BUT DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE...LATE SUMMER NORMS TO BEGIN THE
EXTENDED BEFORE RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW DURING THE EXTENDED IS HIGHLIGHTED BY SPLIT/BLOCKY
FLOW OFF THE ERN CANADA AND NERN US COAST AND AMPLIFYING HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SRN CONUS. THIS PLACES THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION IN
NWLY FLOW ALOFT. ASSOCIATED BACK DOOR FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA SATURDAY MORNING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED OVER THE NE
WILL RIDGE SWWD ALONG THE COAST AND INTO CNTRL VA. NLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW INDICATED IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WILL DRIVE DEWPOINTS
DOWNWARD INTO THE MID 60S. HOWEVER...MODEL DERIVED PWATS REMAIN
AROUND 1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES. COMBINED WITH PERTURBATIONS IN THE NWLY
FLOW...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE MCS
DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM...ROUNDING THE RIDGE AND DROPPING INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT THRU THE WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED
TO LOCATE OFF THE COAST. BLOCK WILL REMAIN OFF THE NE COAST...BUT
MOISTURE FEED WILL BE CUT OFF. DECREASING MOISTURE AND INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM...SO WILL LEAVE POPS SILENT.

NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THICKNESSES AND GUIDANCE YIELD TEMPS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S THRU MONDAY (AROUND -1 STD DEV). OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S NEAR THE WATER. WARMING BACK
UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH BEHIND
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES IN A W/NW
FLOW WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MOIST
GROUND AND LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL MAINTAIN THE CHC FOR ISSUES
WITH CIG/VSBY EACH MORNING.

AS OF 06Z...NE WINDS PREVAILED AT THE TAF SITES WITH NO PCPN
EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING. SKY CONDITIONS WILL BE VARIABLE WITH
GRADUAL LOWERING OF CIGS AND VSBYS. THE MAIN LIMITATION IS
INDICATED TO BE CIGS BUT VSBYS ARE NOT OFF THE TABLE. USED THE
RESULTS OF THE PREVIOUS OVERNIGHT AS A PARTIAL GUIDE AND A MIX OF
MOS GUIDANCE TO MAKE A PLAN FOR THE CURRENT TAF. DESPITE ECG
HAVING THE CLOSEST T/TD SPREAD...EXPERIENCE WOULD INDICATE THEY
MAY NOT GO DOWN TO IFR FOR A WHILE (I.E. AROUND 12Z) AND MAY HAVE
NO LOWER THAN MVFR. HAVE RIC/PHF WITH SOME PERIODS OF IFR. SBY MOS
IS BIASED BY TEMPERATURES THAT ARE TOO LOW. KEPT ORF OUT OF IFR
DUE TO CLIMATOLOGY.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR BY AROUND 14-15Z. LATER TODAY...THERE
WILL BE A CHC FOR LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS...ESPECIALLY NORTH
PORTIONS. WINDS VEER TOWARD E/SE.

OUTLOOK...CHC FOR AFTN TSTMS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME
MVFR/IFR PSBL NEAR SUNRISE EACH MORNING. CURRENT FORECAST IS DRY ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE
HAS JUST LOCATED OFF THE VA CAPES THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING WWD OVER SRN VA. GENERALLY ONSHORE FLOW 10-15 KT
OVER THE WATERS...NORTH OF THE LOW. SEAS HAVE ALSO BUILT TO 3-4 FT
IN THE NRN WATERS. WAVES GENERALLY 1-2 FT. LOW PRESSURE PUSHES
SLOWLY OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVER THE NRN
WATERS. LOW PRESSURE REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK
AS A WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER NEW ENGLAND...RIDGING SWD OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THE RESULT WILL
BE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW...AVG AROUND 10 KT. SEAS REMAIN 2-3 FT.
BY THE WEEKEND...THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH NELY WINDS INCREASING TO
10-15 KT. WILL PUSH SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS TO 3-4 FT...WITH 5 FT
POSSIBLE 20NM OUT. FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE WATERS SAT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS
NEAR TERM...ESS/JAO
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS/LSA
MARINE...SAM






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 200619
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
219 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT...WHILE A WEAK FRONT SLOWLY SINKS SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN
VA. THE FRONT RETURNS AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...AND REMAINS
STALLED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE FLOW OFF
THE WATER AND IN THE WEST AS A FEW SHOWERS DROP SOUTHEAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
OVERNIGHT WILL BE ISOLATED. HAVE ALSO ADDED A MENTION OF SOME
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST FOR A BRIEF PERIOD FROM 07Z-
10Z. FOG SHOULD NOT BECOME DENSE AND WIDESPREAD VSBYS WILL LIKELY
NOT DROP LOWER THAN 2 MILES THOUGH A FEW PATCHY SPOTS COULD DROP
TO 1 MILES OR LESS ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHICH HAVE RECEIVED A LOT OF RAIN
OVER THE LAST 36 HOURS.

THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE VA CAPES CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST AND WINDS HAVE INCREASED ALONG THE
COAST WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND WIND
FIELDS THE WEAK FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST NC THEN
EXTENDS NW TO NEAR LAKE GASTON. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
A FEW MORE DEGREES THAN LAST NIGHT WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S IN NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND LOW 70S SOUTH.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO DIG
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL FORCE THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA TO LIFT
BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. WITH SOME DAYTIME HEATING AND THE
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL AROUND...SHOULD SEE SOME
AFTERNOON TO EVENING CONVECTION FORM IN THE PIEDMONT AND THEN HEAD
EASTWARD WITH THE WARM FRONT. THE 12Z NAM IS MORE EXCITED AND MUCH
MORE LIFT THAN THE GFS OR ECMWF. THE MODELS TEND TO AGREE ON AREAS
ACROSS NORTHERN VA FOR RAIN BUT NOT AS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH SO HAVE
TAPERED POPS A BIT LOWER IN THE SOUTH. FOR TEMPERATURES HAVE
LEANED TOWARD THE MET NUMBERS AS THE MAV HAVE BEEN TOO WARM...BUT
SHOULD SEE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH MORE SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE OVERALL PATTERN IS AGREED UPON IN THE MID RANGE PART OF THE
FORECAST AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SLIDES INTO THE
EAST AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MS VALLEY BUILDS
NORTHWARD...SETTING UP NW OVER OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
HOWEVER...BEYOND THE THAT...THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MAKES THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION
VERY UNCERTAIN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE IN THE VICINITY SHOULD BE SOME
STATIONARY AND PARALLEL TO THE FLOW ALOFT AND COULD ALSO BE A
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. AT THIS POINT...WITH THE UNCERTAINTY...LEANED
MORE TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE PIEDMONT EARLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND THEN AREA WIDE IN LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. SUCCEEDING MODEL RUNS WILL HOPEFULLY IMPROVE THE
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL WAVES AND COMPLEXES.

FOR TEMPERATURES...CONTINUED A SLOW WARMING TREND FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT DID NOT GO AS WARM AS THE MAV NUMBERS...LEANING
TOWARD THE MET NUMBERS WHICH LEANED TOWARD THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S ON THURSDAY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER ON FRIDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS
POSSIBLE. FOR LOWS HAVE LEANED WARM THAN GUIDANCE THINKING MORE
CLOUDS AROUND AND A MORE HUMID AIR MASS LIMITING THE COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN NWLY
FLOW ALOFT...BUT DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE...LATE SUMMER NORMS TO BEGIN THE
EXTENDED BEFORE RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW DURING THE EXTENDED IS HIGHLIGHTED BY SPLIT/BLOCKY
FLOW OFF THE ERN CANADA AND NERN US COAST AND AMPLIFYING HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SRN CONUS. THIS PLACES THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION IN
NWLY FLOW ALOFT. ASSOCIATED BACK DOOR FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA SATURDAY MORNING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED OVER THE NE
WILL RIDGE SWWD ALONG THE COAST AND INTO CNTRL VA. NLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW INDICATED IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WILL DRIVE DEWPOINTS
DOWNWARD INTO THE MID 60S. HOWEVER...MODEL DERIVED PWATS REMAIN
AROUND 1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES. COMBINED WITH PERTURBATIONS IN THE NWLY
FLOW...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE MCS
DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM...ROUNDING THE RIDGE AND DROPPING INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT THRU THE WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED
TO LOCATE OFF THE COAST. BLOCK WILL REMAIN OFF THE NE COAST...BUT
MOISTURE FEED WILL BE CUT OFF. DECREASING MOISTURE AND INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM...SO WILL LEAVE POPS SILENT.

NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THICKNESSES AND GUIDANCE YIELD TEMPS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S THRU MONDAY (AROUND -1 STD DEV). OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S NEAR THE WATER. WARMING BACK
UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH BEHIND
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES IN A W/NW
FLOW WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MOIST
GROUND AND LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL MAINTAIN THE CHC FOR ISSUES
WITH CIG/VSBY EACH MORNING.

AS OF 06Z...NE WINDS PREVAILED AT THE TAF SITES WITH NO PCPN
EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING. SKY CONDITIONS WILL BE VARIABLE WITH
GRADUAL LOWERING OF CIGS AND VSBYS. THE MAIN LIMITATION IS
INDICATED TO BE CIGS BUT VSBYS ARE NOT OFF THE TABLE. USED THE
RESULTS OF THE PREVIOUS OVERNIGHT AS A PARTIAL GUIDE AND A MIX OF
MOS GUIDANCE TO MAKE A PLAN FOR THE CURRENT TAF. DESPITE ECG
HAVING THE CLOSEST T/TD SPREAD...EXPERIENCE WOULD INDICATE THEY
MAY NOT GO DOWN TO IFR FOR A WHILE (I.E. AROUND 12Z) AND MAY HAVE
NO LOWER THAN MVFR. HAVE RIC/PHF WITH SOME PERIODS OF IFR. SBY MOS
IS BIASED BY TEMPERATURES THAT ARE TOO LOW. KEPT ORF OUT OF IFR
DUE TO CLIMATOLOGY.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR BY AROUND 14-15Z. LATER TODAY...THERE
WILL BE A CHC FOR LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS...ESPECIALLY NORTH
PORTIONS. WINDS VEER TOWARD E/SE.

OUTLOOK...CHC FOR AFTN TSTMS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME
MVFR/IFR PSBL NEAR SUNRISE EACH MORNING. CURRENT FORECAST IS DRY ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE
HAS JUST LOCATED OFF THE VA CAPES THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING WWD OVER SRN VA. GENERALLY ONSHORE FLOW 10-15 KT
OVER THE WATERS...NORTH OF THE LOW. SEAS HAVE ALSO BUILT TO 3-4 FT
IN THE NRN WATERS. WAVES GENERALLY 1-2 FT. LOW PRESSURE PUSHES
SLOWLY OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVER THE NRN
WATERS. LOW PRESSURE REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK
AS A WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER NEW ENGLAND...RIDGING SWD OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THE RESULT WILL
BE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW...AVG AROUND 10 KT. SEAS REMAIN 2-3 FT.
BY THE WEEKEND...THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH NELY WINDS INCREASING TO
10-15 KT. WILL PUSH SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS TO 3-4 FT...WITH 5 FT
POSSIBLE 20NM OUT. FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE WATERS SAT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS
NEAR TERM...ESS/JAO
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS/LSA
MARINE...SAM






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 200619
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
219 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT...WHILE A WEAK FRONT SLOWLY SINKS SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN
VA. THE FRONT RETURNS AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...AND REMAINS
STALLED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE FLOW OFF
THE WATER AND IN THE WEST AS A FEW SHOWERS DROP SOUTHEAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
OVERNIGHT WILL BE ISOLATED. HAVE ALSO ADDED A MENTION OF SOME
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST FOR A BRIEF PERIOD FROM 07Z-
10Z. FOG SHOULD NOT BECOME DENSE AND WIDESPREAD VSBYS WILL LIKELY
NOT DROP LOWER THAN 2 MILES THOUGH A FEW PATCHY SPOTS COULD DROP
TO 1 MILES OR LESS ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHICH HAVE RECEIVED A LOT OF RAIN
OVER THE LAST 36 HOURS.

THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE VA CAPES CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST AND WINDS HAVE INCREASED ALONG THE
COAST WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND WIND
FIELDS THE WEAK FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST NC THEN
EXTENDS NW TO NEAR LAKE GASTON. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
A FEW MORE DEGREES THAN LAST NIGHT WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S IN NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND LOW 70S SOUTH.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO DIG
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL FORCE THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA TO LIFT
BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. WITH SOME DAYTIME HEATING AND THE
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL AROUND...SHOULD SEE SOME
AFTERNOON TO EVENING CONVECTION FORM IN THE PIEDMONT AND THEN HEAD
EASTWARD WITH THE WARM FRONT. THE 12Z NAM IS MORE EXCITED AND MUCH
MORE LIFT THAN THE GFS OR ECMWF. THE MODELS TEND TO AGREE ON AREAS
ACROSS NORTHERN VA FOR RAIN BUT NOT AS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH SO HAVE
TAPERED POPS A BIT LOWER IN THE SOUTH. FOR TEMPERATURES HAVE
LEANED TOWARD THE MET NUMBERS AS THE MAV HAVE BEEN TOO WARM...BUT
SHOULD SEE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH MORE SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE OVERALL PATTERN IS AGREED UPON IN THE MID RANGE PART OF THE
FORECAST AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SLIDES INTO THE
EAST AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MS VALLEY BUILDS
NORTHWARD...SETTING UP NW OVER OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
HOWEVER...BEYOND THE THAT...THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MAKES THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION
VERY UNCERTAIN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE IN THE VICINITY SHOULD BE SOME
STATIONARY AND PARALLEL TO THE FLOW ALOFT AND COULD ALSO BE A
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. AT THIS POINT...WITH THE UNCERTAINTY...LEANED
MORE TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE PIEDMONT EARLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND THEN AREA WIDE IN LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. SUCCEEDING MODEL RUNS WILL HOPEFULLY IMPROVE THE
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL WAVES AND COMPLEXES.

FOR TEMPERATURES...CONTINUED A SLOW WARMING TREND FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT DID NOT GO AS WARM AS THE MAV NUMBERS...LEANING
TOWARD THE MET NUMBERS WHICH LEANED TOWARD THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S ON THURSDAY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER ON FRIDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS
POSSIBLE. FOR LOWS HAVE LEANED WARM THAN GUIDANCE THINKING MORE
CLOUDS AROUND AND A MORE HUMID AIR MASS LIMITING THE COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN NWLY
FLOW ALOFT...BUT DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE...LATE SUMMER NORMS TO BEGIN THE
EXTENDED BEFORE RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW DURING THE EXTENDED IS HIGHLIGHTED BY SPLIT/BLOCKY
FLOW OFF THE ERN CANADA AND NERN US COAST AND AMPLIFYING HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SRN CONUS. THIS PLACES THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION IN
NWLY FLOW ALOFT. ASSOCIATED BACK DOOR FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA SATURDAY MORNING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED OVER THE NE
WILL RIDGE SWWD ALONG THE COAST AND INTO CNTRL VA. NLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW INDICATED IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WILL DRIVE DEWPOINTS
DOWNWARD INTO THE MID 60S. HOWEVER...MODEL DERIVED PWATS REMAIN
AROUND 1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES. COMBINED WITH PERTURBATIONS IN THE NWLY
FLOW...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE MCS
DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM...ROUNDING THE RIDGE AND DROPPING INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT THRU THE WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED
TO LOCATE OFF THE COAST. BLOCK WILL REMAIN OFF THE NE COAST...BUT
MOISTURE FEED WILL BE CUT OFF. DECREASING MOISTURE AND INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM...SO WILL LEAVE POPS SILENT.

NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THICKNESSES AND GUIDANCE YIELD TEMPS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S THRU MONDAY (AROUND -1 STD DEV). OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S NEAR THE WATER. WARMING BACK
UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH BEHIND
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES IN A W/NW
FLOW WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MOIST
GROUND AND LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL MAINTAIN THE CHC FOR ISSUES
WITH CIG/VSBY EACH MORNING.

AS OF 06Z...NE WINDS PREVAILED AT THE TAF SITES WITH NO PCPN
EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING. SKY CONDITIONS WILL BE VARIABLE WITH
GRADUAL LOWERING OF CIGS AND VSBYS. THE MAIN LIMITATION IS
INDICATED TO BE CIGS BUT VSBYS ARE NOT OFF THE TABLE. USED THE
RESULTS OF THE PREVIOUS OVERNIGHT AS A PARTIAL GUIDE AND A MIX OF
MOS GUIDANCE TO MAKE A PLAN FOR THE CURRENT TAF. DESPITE ECG
HAVING THE CLOSEST T/TD SPREAD...EXPERIENCE WOULD INDICATE THEY
MAY NOT GO DOWN TO IFR FOR A WHILE (I.E. AROUND 12Z) AND MAY HAVE
NO LOWER THAN MVFR. HAVE RIC/PHF WITH SOME PERIODS OF IFR. SBY MOS
IS BIASED BY TEMPERATURES THAT ARE TOO LOW. KEPT ORF OUT OF IFR
DUE TO CLIMATOLOGY.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR BY AROUND 14-15Z. LATER TODAY...THERE
WILL BE A CHC FOR LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS...ESPECIALLY NORTH
PORTIONS. WINDS VEER TOWARD E/SE.

OUTLOOK...CHC FOR AFTN TSTMS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME
MVFR/IFR PSBL NEAR SUNRISE EACH MORNING. CURRENT FORECAST IS DRY ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE
HAS JUST LOCATED OFF THE VA CAPES THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING WWD OVER SRN VA. GENERALLY ONSHORE FLOW 10-15 KT
OVER THE WATERS...NORTH OF THE LOW. SEAS HAVE ALSO BUILT TO 3-4 FT
IN THE NRN WATERS. WAVES GENERALLY 1-2 FT. LOW PRESSURE PUSHES
SLOWLY OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVER THE NRN
WATERS. LOW PRESSURE REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK
AS A WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER NEW ENGLAND...RIDGING SWD OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THE RESULT WILL
BE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW...AVG AROUND 10 KT. SEAS REMAIN 2-3 FT.
BY THE WEEKEND...THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH NELY WINDS INCREASING TO
10-15 KT. WILL PUSH SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS TO 3-4 FT...WITH 5 FT
POSSIBLE 20NM OUT. FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE WATERS SAT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS
NEAR TERM...ESS/JAO
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS/LSA
MARINE...SAM






000
FXUS61 KRNK 200613
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
213 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACKING EAST AND SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE BOUNDARY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
REGION EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1000 PM EDT TUESDAY...

SEVERAL HOURS WHERE CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTENT THROUGH THE
EVENING...PROMPTING ONE SVR FOR ROCKBRIDGE DUE TO DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL. OVERALL...HOWEVER...THE MAIN CONCERN HAS BEEN SLOW
MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS...AND
CONSEQUENTLY COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN WHERE THE ACTIVITY OCCURS.
SEVERAL SPOTS...INCLUDING WILKES...ROCKBRIDGE...AND
BEDFORD/CAMPBELL HAVE SEEN 1.5 TO 2.5 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS
EVENING ACCORDING TO DUAL-POL PROMPTING LOCALIZED FLOOD
ADVISORIES. NO REPORTS OF ANY SPECIFIC PROBLEMS HOWEVER. TEMPS
WERE A LITTLE HIGH BASED ON CURRENT READINGS...SO ADJUSTED THEM
DOWNWARD. DEWPOINTS WERE REASONABLE NEEDING ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENT.

AS OF 250 PM EDT TUESDAY...

SHOTGUN PATTERN OF SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA CONTINUES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH LOCAL CONVERGENCE ZONES OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST PER MSAS MAKING
FOR A FEW CLUSTERS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL. HOWEVER INSTABILITY RATHER WEAK
WITH ANALYSIS SHOWING CAPES OF ONLY 500-1000 J/KG AND THIS COMBO WITH
DRIER AIR ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT DEEP CONVECTION FOR THE MOST PART INTO
THIS EVENING. STILL APPEARS POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN CONCERN SO
RUNNING WITH MOSTLY CHANCE POPS INTO THIS EVENING INCLUDING SPOTTY
LIKELY POPS IN THE VERY NEAR TERM WHERE COVERAGE REMAINS BEST.

EXPECT A GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET WITH RESIDUAL
OUTFLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PERHAPS KEEPING LINGERING COVERAGE
AROUND ESPCLY MOUNTAINS INTO LATE EVENING. OTRW WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND
LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD MAKE FOR A PERIOD OF LITTLE POP FROM LATE
EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE
NW APPROACHES LATE. GUIDANCE DIFFERING ON TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF THE
LEADING AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE BUT MOST SHOW SOME WEAK WESTERN SLOPE
CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY TOWARD DAYBREAK. THIS SUPPORTS RETURNING
CHANCE POPS OVER THE FAR WEST LATE BUT LITTLE OUT TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE
AND POINTS EAST. OTRW MAINLY PC WITH PATCHY FOG AROUND AGAIN AND LOWS
MOSTLY IN THE 60S.

NEXT MID LEVEL WAVE SLIDES EAST AND CROSSES THE REGION FROM THE WEST
UNDER THE NEXT PASSING 5H TROUGH WELL TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY. BEST
SUPPORT/DYNAMICS SLIPS TO THE NORTH WHILE A TRAILING VORT LOBE WORKS
EAST OF THE BLUE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. APPEARS BETTER INSTABILITY PER
MORE INSOLATION WOULD SUPPORT SOME SORT OF BROKEN BAND OF SHRA/TSRA
EITHER SLIDING ACROSS OR DEVELOPING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND MOVING
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH BETTER HEATING...TRENDING TOWARD THE
SLOWER 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH WOULD HAVE MOST COVERAGE JUST ARRIVING
IN THE WEST MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN ALONG AND EASTWARD FROM
THE BLUE RIDGE LATER IN THE DAY. HOWEVER WILL HOLD ON GOING ANY HIGHER
THAN DECENT CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY BUT PERHAPS
ENOUGH OF A MID LEVEL JET AND STRONG LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
SEVERE THREAT MAINLY NORTH/EAST. KEPT HIGHS CLOSER TO THE WARMER MAV
MOS EAST AND A BLEND OF THE MET/MAV AND 2M ECMWF VALUES WEST WHERE
LIKELY MORE CLOUDS/SHRA EARLIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT TUESDAY...

SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO EXIT TO THE EAST DURING THE EVENING AND
SHOULD ALLOW A MAINLY DRY NIGHT FOR THE REGION...ASIDE FROM MAYBE
SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE AIDED SHOWERS IN THE FAR WEST. MOST LIKELY
THIS WAVE WILL BE TAKING AN AREA OF ZONE OF SCATTERED CONVECTION
EAST OF THE FCST AREA BY EVENING...BUT LEFT SOME LOW CHANCE POPS
IN FAR EAST DURING THE EVENING IN CASE THIS SLOWS DOWN. TIMING
SUBTLE WAVES IS TRICKY AND MOST MODELS IMPLY ANOTHER WEAK ONE
COULD ARRIVE BY THURSDAY MORNING TO KEEP SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
AND MAYBE EVEN A THUNDERSTORM IN THE WEST. NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW
CONTINUE INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT SO DONT WANT TO RULE THAT OUT...BUT
MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE ARRIVES LATE IN THE DAY THURS TO EARLY
EVENING FOR MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD OR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION...MAINLY IN THE WEST BUT SOME ACTIVITY COULD SPREAD
INTO PIEDMONT DESPITE NW FLOW GIVEN UPPER SUPPORT. DONT SEE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT MUCH SEVERE THREAT REACHING INTO
AREA...UNLESS TIMING IS A LITTLE FASTER BUT COULD BE ORGANIZED
LINE OR BOW ECHO TYPE STRUCTURES COMING THROUGH OHIO VALLEY AND
INTO WV SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON. MORE CONCERNED ABOUT HEAVY
RAINFALLRATES AND SOME AREAS GETTING MORE THAN ONE ROUND OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH YET
TO CONSIDER ANY KIND OF HEADLINE FOR FLOOD POTENTIAL....WHICH
WOULD BE CONFINED TO WESTERN SLOPES OF APPALACHIANS.

FRIDAY COULD BE A REPEAT IN SOME REGARDS...BUT AT THIS POINT
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE NOT LOOKING AS POTENT...IF ANYTHING AT ALL.
STILL COULD BE DIURNAL CONVECTION...AGAIN MAINLY WEST WITH NW
FLOW. AS PATTERN AMPLIFIES...MORE LIKELY FRI NIGHT AND INTO
SAT...BACK DOOR FRONT COULD SNEAK DOWN FROM NORTHEAST...BUT LOOKS
LIKE THAT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL OVERNIGHT. THUS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURE
WARM AGAIN FOR FRIDAY BUT STILL UNDER GFS MOS DUE TO LIKELY LOTS
OF CLOUD COVER. TRENDING UP THOUGH FROM PREV FCST SINCE BACK DOOR
FRONT IS EXPECTED AFTER DAY TIME. MAY NOT BE QUITE AS WARM AS
THURSDAY THOUGH...WHERE HAVE LOWER 90S GOING IN EAST WITH MORE
SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPE. GOING CLOSER TO ECMWF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS
BOTH THURS AND FRIDAY AS GFS HAS MID 90S THURSDAY AND LOWER 90S
FRI IN PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY THE
BATTLE BETWEEN LARGE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST TRYING TO BUILD INTO
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...WHILE TROUGH OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST DEEPENS
WHILE CLOSING OFF AND CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT IT WILL SET UP CLOSE
ENOUGH TO COAST TO PUSH BACK DOOR FRONT THROUGH AND WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BEFORE LIKELY WEAKENING AND ALLOWING
MORE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE TO BE FELT BY TUES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA IF WEAK/SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER WEDGE IS IN
PLACE EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE MIXING OUT OVER THE EAST.  WHILE
SURFACE WEDGE FRONT MAY BE WELL TO THE SOUTH DURING MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD...WITH STRONGEST SOUTHWARD PUSH ON SATURDAY...THE 850
BOUNDARY AND MOST LIKELY TRACK FOR UPPER S/WV ENERGY FROM THE NW IS
LIKELY TO BE RIGHT OVER THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA...AND THUS GOOD
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD.  TIMING
MOST LIKELY WINDOWS REMAINS TRICKY...AS MANY OF THESE WAVES ARE
STRONGLY INFLUENCE BY CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES THAT WILL DEVELOP WELL
UPSTREAM. LIKE THE TRENDS OVERALL THAT 12Z GFS IS TAKING...NOT ONLY
WITH RETURN TO SHARPER AMPLITUDE PATTERN...BUT IDEA OF TWO DISTINCT
WAVES HEADING FOR THE WESTERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA...ONE
SATURDAY AND ANOTHER ONE SUNDAY. EXACT TIMES MAY HELP DETERMINE IF
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY...WHICH WOULD LIKELY BE LIMITED TO
THE FAR WEST NEAR EDGE OF WEDGE BOUNDARY...BUT PERHAPS THE BIGGER
CONCERN IS RAINFALL THAT IS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE SAME AREAS AT LEAST
A COUPLE OF DAYS IN A ROW.

THERE COULD BE ANOTHER WAVE FOR MONDAY...BUT AS RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD IN AND TROUGH TO THE EAST AND ASSOCIATED WEDGE WEAKEN WHAT MAY
TEND TO OCCUR IS MORE DIURNAL POP-UP CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE BOUNDARY IN OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA
AS THE ATMOS DESTABILIZES MORE. BY TUESDAY THE SUPPORT TO KEEP WEDGE
IN PLACE SHOULD BE WEAKENING AS TROUGH LIFTS AND SFC HIGH SHIFTS
MORE EAST OF THE AREA...AND OVERALL IT LOOKS A LITTLE DRIER...BUT
NOT SURE ALL POPS CAN BE REMOVED.

GIVEN PATTERN WE`VE BEEN IN...REALLY DON`T HAVE CONFIDENCE TO DRY IT
OUT OR WARM IT UP TOO FAST...SO WILL LEAN TOWARD STRONGER INFLUENCE
OF THE WEDGE THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIP...WHICH WILL HELP STRENGTHEN THE WEDGE TOO.  UNDERCUT EVEN
COOLER ECMWF A LITTLE BIT FOR HIGHS...WITH A BIT MORE WARMING FOR
TUESDAY. BUT IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST THINGS MAY BE ABLE TO WARM UP VERY
QUICKLY A DAY OR TWO EARLIER THAN THIS IF THE WEDGE CAN BREAK AND
SOME OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE BIG UPPER RIDGE CAN BE REALIZED.  THIS
WILL EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP FOR OUR ENTIRE
AREA...BUT AM THINKING IT WILL NOT COME UNTIL MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

SCT-BKN STRATUS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH AREAS OF
MVFR VSBYS DUE TO FOG. FOG WILL BE THICKER IN THE MTN VALLEYS WITH
POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS AT BLF/LWB/BCB EARLY THIS MORNING.
INCREASING CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH SHRA/TSRA APPROACHING FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY MAY PREVENT THE FOG FROM BECOMING OVERLY DENSE...ANY
FOG DISSIPATING QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TODAY...AND INTO NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY. THE TROF AXIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS AXIS IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TODAY. ONGOING STORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT
APPROACHES THE MOUNTAINS OF WV AND FAR WRN VA AROUND
DAYBREAK...WITH REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS
BEFORE NOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE
OUTFLOW AND THEN MOVE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.

BKN LINE OF SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE TERMINAL AREAS
TODAY...PASSING THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN TERMINALS AROUND NOON...THEN
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. STORMINESS SHOULD
CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z/8PM THIS EVENING WITH ACTIVITY
MOVING EAST. AREAS OF FOG WILL THEN RE-DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF MVFR AND POTENTIAL FOR IFR VSBYS AGAIN
THURSDAY MORNING.


EXTENDED AVIATION... WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
UNSETTLED AND HIGHLY VARIABLE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A
STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS STALLED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH PERIODICALLY
RESULTING IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DUE TO THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR...EXPECT STRATUS AND
FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR MOST
PRONOUNCED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 9AM EACH DAY. MODELS ARE INDICATED
THAT A DEEPER EASTERLY SORT OF WIND FLOW WILL SETUP FOR THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS SUGGEST THAT LOW CIGS MAY PERSIST EVEN
DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD
MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND DUE TO MOISTURE
BANKING UP AGAINST THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF/SK
NEAR TERM...JH/RAB
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...PM



000
FXUS61 KRNK 200613
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
213 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACKING EAST AND SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE BOUNDARY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
REGION EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1000 PM EDT TUESDAY...

SEVERAL HOURS WHERE CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTENT THROUGH THE
EVENING...PROMPTING ONE SVR FOR ROCKBRIDGE DUE TO DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL. OVERALL...HOWEVER...THE MAIN CONCERN HAS BEEN SLOW
MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS...AND
CONSEQUENTLY COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN WHERE THE ACTIVITY OCCURS.
SEVERAL SPOTS...INCLUDING WILKES...ROCKBRIDGE...AND
BEDFORD/CAMPBELL HAVE SEEN 1.5 TO 2.5 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS
EVENING ACCORDING TO DUAL-POL PROMPTING LOCALIZED FLOOD
ADVISORIES. NO REPORTS OF ANY SPECIFIC PROBLEMS HOWEVER. TEMPS
WERE A LITTLE HIGH BASED ON CURRENT READINGS...SO ADJUSTED THEM
DOWNWARD. DEWPOINTS WERE REASONABLE NEEDING ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENT.

AS OF 250 PM EDT TUESDAY...

SHOTGUN PATTERN OF SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA CONTINUES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH LOCAL CONVERGENCE ZONES OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST PER MSAS MAKING
FOR A FEW CLUSTERS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL. HOWEVER INSTABILITY RATHER WEAK
WITH ANALYSIS SHOWING CAPES OF ONLY 500-1000 J/KG AND THIS COMBO WITH
DRIER AIR ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT DEEP CONVECTION FOR THE MOST PART INTO
THIS EVENING. STILL APPEARS POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN CONCERN SO
RUNNING WITH MOSTLY CHANCE POPS INTO THIS EVENING INCLUDING SPOTTY
LIKELY POPS IN THE VERY NEAR TERM WHERE COVERAGE REMAINS BEST.

EXPECT A GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET WITH RESIDUAL
OUTFLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PERHAPS KEEPING LINGERING COVERAGE
AROUND ESPCLY MOUNTAINS INTO LATE EVENING. OTRW WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND
LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD MAKE FOR A PERIOD OF LITTLE POP FROM LATE
EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE
NW APPROACHES LATE. GUIDANCE DIFFERING ON TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF THE
LEADING AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE BUT MOST SHOW SOME WEAK WESTERN SLOPE
CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY TOWARD DAYBREAK. THIS SUPPORTS RETURNING
CHANCE POPS OVER THE FAR WEST LATE BUT LITTLE OUT TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE
AND POINTS EAST. OTRW MAINLY PC WITH PATCHY FOG AROUND AGAIN AND LOWS
MOSTLY IN THE 60S.

NEXT MID LEVEL WAVE SLIDES EAST AND CROSSES THE REGION FROM THE WEST
UNDER THE NEXT PASSING 5H TROUGH WELL TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY. BEST
SUPPORT/DYNAMICS SLIPS TO THE NORTH WHILE A TRAILING VORT LOBE WORKS
EAST OF THE BLUE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. APPEARS BETTER INSTABILITY PER
MORE INSOLATION WOULD SUPPORT SOME SORT OF BROKEN BAND OF SHRA/TSRA
EITHER SLIDING ACROSS OR DEVELOPING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND MOVING
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH BETTER HEATING...TRENDING TOWARD THE
SLOWER 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH WOULD HAVE MOST COVERAGE JUST ARRIVING
IN THE WEST MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN ALONG AND EASTWARD FROM
THE BLUE RIDGE LATER IN THE DAY. HOWEVER WILL HOLD ON GOING ANY HIGHER
THAN DECENT CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY BUT PERHAPS
ENOUGH OF A MID LEVEL JET AND STRONG LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
SEVERE THREAT MAINLY NORTH/EAST. KEPT HIGHS CLOSER TO THE WARMER MAV
MOS EAST AND A BLEND OF THE MET/MAV AND 2M ECMWF VALUES WEST WHERE
LIKELY MORE CLOUDS/SHRA EARLIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT TUESDAY...

SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO EXIT TO THE EAST DURING THE EVENING AND
SHOULD ALLOW A MAINLY DRY NIGHT FOR THE REGION...ASIDE FROM MAYBE
SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE AIDED SHOWERS IN THE FAR WEST. MOST LIKELY
THIS WAVE WILL BE TAKING AN AREA OF ZONE OF SCATTERED CONVECTION
EAST OF THE FCST AREA BY EVENING...BUT LEFT SOME LOW CHANCE POPS
IN FAR EAST DURING THE EVENING IN CASE THIS SLOWS DOWN. TIMING
SUBTLE WAVES IS TRICKY AND MOST MODELS IMPLY ANOTHER WEAK ONE
COULD ARRIVE BY THURSDAY MORNING TO KEEP SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
AND MAYBE EVEN A THUNDERSTORM IN THE WEST. NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW
CONTINUE INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT SO DONT WANT TO RULE THAT OUT...BUT
MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE ARRIVES LATE IN THE DAY THURS TO EARLY
EVENING FOR MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD OR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION...MAINLY IN THE WEST BUT SOME ACTIVITY COULD SPREAD
INTO PIEDMONT DESPITE NW FLOW GIVEN UPPER SUPPORT. DONT SEE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT MUCH SEVERE THREAT REACHING INTO
AREA...UNLESS TIMING IS A LITTLE FASTER BUT COULD BE ORGANIZED
LINE OR BOW ECHO TYPE STRUCTURES COMING THROUGH OHIO VALLEY AND
INTO WV SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON. MORE CONCERNED ABOUT HEAVY
RAINFALLRATES AND SOME AREAS GETTING MORE THAN ONE ROUND OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH YET
TO CONSIDER ANY KIND OF HEADLINE FOR FLOOD POTENTIAL....WHICH
WOULD BE CONFINED TO WESTERN SLOPES OF APPALACHIANS.

FRIDAY COULD BE A REPEAT IN SOME REGARDS...BUT AT THIS POINT
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE NOT LOOKING AS POTENT...IF ANYTHING AT ALL.
STILL COULD BE DIURNAL CONVECTION...AGAIN MAINLY WEST WITH NW
FLOW. AS PATTERN AMPLIFIES...MORE LIKELY FRI NIGHT AND INTO
SAT...BACK DOOR FRONT COULD SNEAK DOWN FROM NORTHEAST...BUT LOOKS
LIKE THAT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL OVERNIGHT. THUS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURE
WARM AGAIN FOR FRIDAY BUT STILL UNDER GFS MOS DUE TO LIKELY LOTS
OF CLOUD COVER. TRENDING UP THOUGH FROM PREV FCST SINCE BACK DOOR
FRONT IS EXPECTED AFTER DAY TIME. MAY NOT BE QUITE AS WARM AS
THURSDAY THOUGH...WHERE HAVE LOWER 90S GOING IN EAST WITH MORE
SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPE. GOING CLOSER TO ECMWF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS
BOTH THURS AND FRIDAY AS GFS HAS MID 90S THURSDAY AND LOWER 90S
FRI IN PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY THE
BATTLE BETWEEN LARGE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST TRYING TO BUILD INTO
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...WHILE TROUGH OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST DEEPENS
WHILE CLOSING OFF AND CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT IT WILL SET UP CLOSE
ENOUGH TO COAST TO PUSH BACK DOOR FRONT THROUGH AND WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BEFORE LIKELY WEAKENING AND ALLOWING
MORE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE TO BE FELT BY TUES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA IF WEAK/SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER WEDGE IS IN
PLACE EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE MIXING OUT OVER THE EAST.  WHILE
SURFACE WEDGE FRONT MAY BE WELL TO THE SOUTH DURING MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD...WITH STRONGEST SOUTHWARD PUSH ON SATURDAY...THE 850
BOUNDARY AND MOST LIKELY TRACK FOR UPPER S/WV ENERGY FROM THE NW IS
LIKELY TO BE RIGHT OVER THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA...AND THUS GOOD
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD.  TIMING
MOST LIKELY WINDOWS REMAINS TRICKY...AS MANY OF THESE WAVES ARE
STRONGLY INFLUENCE BY CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES THAT WILL DEVELOP WELL
UPSTREAM. LIKE THE TRENDS OVERALL THAT 12Z GFS IS TAKING...NOT ONLY
WITH RETURN TO SHARPER AMPLITUDE PATTERN...BUT IDEA OF TWO DISTINCT
WAVES HEADING FOR THE WESTERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA...ONE
SATURDAY AND ANOTHER ONE SUNDAY. EXACT TIMES MAY HELP DETERMINE IF
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY...WHICH WOULD LIKELY BE LIMITED TO
THE FAR WEST NEAR EDGE OF WEDGE BOUNDARY...BUT PERHAPS THE BIGGER
CONCERN IS RAINFALL THAT IS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE SAME AREAS AT LEAST
A COUPLE OF DAYS IN A ROW.

THERE COULD BE ANOTHER WAVE FOR MONDAY...BUT AS RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD IN AND TROUGH TO THE EAST AND ASSOCIATED WEDGE WEAKEN WHAT MAY
TEND TO OCCUR IS MORE DIURNAL POP-UP CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE BOUNDARY IN OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA
AS THE ATMOS DESTABILIZES MORE. BY TUESDAY THE SUPPORT TO KEEP WEDGE
IN PLACE SHOULD BE WEAKENING AS TROUGH LIFTS AND SFC HIGH SHIFTS
MORE EAST OF THE AREA...AND OVERALL IT LOOKS A LITTLE DRIER...BUT
NOT SURE ALL POPS CAN BE REMOVED.

GIVEN PATTERN WE`VE BEEN IN...REALLY DON`T HAVE CONFIDENCE TO DRY IT
OUT OR WARM IT UP TOO FAST...SO WILL LEAN TOWARD STRONGER INFLUENCE
OF THE WEDGE THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIP...WHICH WILL HELP STRENGTHEN THE WEDGE TOO.  UNDERCUT EVEN
COOLER ECMWF A LITTLE BIT FOR HIGHS...WITH A BIT MORE WARMING FOR
TUESDAY. BUT IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST THINGS MAY BE ABLE TO WARM UP VERY
QUICKLY A DAY OR TWO EARLIER THAN THIS IF THE WEDGE CAN BREAK AND
SOME OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE BIG UPPER RIDGE CAN BE REALIZED.  THIS
WILL EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP FOR OUR ENTIRE
AREA...BUT AM THINKING IT WILL NOT COME UNTIL MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

SCT-BKN STRATUS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH AREAS OF
MVFR VSBYS DUE TO FOG. FOG WILL BE THICKER IN THE MTN VALLEYS WITH
POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS AT BLF/LWB/BCB EARLY THIS MORNING.
INCREASING CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH SHRA/TSRA APPROACHING FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY MAY PREVENT THE FOG FROM BECOMING OVERLY DENSE...ANY
FOG DISSIPATING QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TODAY...AND INTO NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY. THE TROF AXIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS AXIS IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TODAY. ONGOING STORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT
APPROACHES THE MOUNTAINS OF WV AND FAR WRN VA AROUND
DAYBREAK...WITH REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS
BEFORE NOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE
OUTFLOW AND THEN MOVE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.

BKN LINE OF SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE TERMINAL AREAS
TODAY...PASSING THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN TERMINALS AROUND NOON...THEN
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. STORMINESS SHOULD
CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z/8PM THIS EVENING WITH ACTIVITY
MOVING EAST. AREAS OF FOG WILL THEN RE-DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF MVFR AND POTENTIAL FOR IFR VSBYS AGAIN
THURSDAY MORNING.


EXTENDED AVIATION... WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
UNSETTLED AND HIGHLY VARIABLE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A
STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS STALLED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH PERIODICALLY
RESULTING IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DUE TO THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR...EXPECT STRATUS AND
FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR MOST
PRONOUNCED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 9AM EACH DAY. MODELS ARE INDICATED
THAT A DEEPER EASTERLY SORT OF WIND FLOW WILL SETUP FOR THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS SUGGEST THAT LOW CIGS MAY PERSIST EVEN
DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD
MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND DUE TO MOISTURE
BANKING UP AGAINST THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF/SK
NEAR TERM...JH/RAB
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...PM



000
FXUS61 KRNK 200613
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
213 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACKING EAST AND SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE BOUNDARY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
REGION EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1000 PM EDT TUESDAY...

SEVERAL HOURS WHERE CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTENT THROUGH THE
EVENING...PROMPTING ONE SVR FOR ROCKBRIDGE DUE TO DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL. OVERALL...HOWEVER...THE MAIN CONCERN HAS BEEN SLOW
MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS...AND
CONSEQUENTLY COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN WHERE THE ACTIVITY OCCURS.
SEVERAL SPOTS...INCLUDING WILKES...ROCKBRIDGE...AND
BEDFORD/CAMPBELL HAVE SEEN 1.5 TO 2.5 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS
EVENING ACCORDING TO DUAL-POL PROMPTING LOCALIZED FLOOD
ADVISORIES. NO REPORTS OF ANY SPECIFIC PROBLEMS HOWEVER. TEMPS
WERE A LITTLE HIGH BASED ON CURRENT READINGS...SO ADJUSTED THEM
DOWNWARD. DEWPOINTS WERE REASONABLE NEEDING ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENT.

AS OF 250 PM EDT TUESDAY...

SHOTGUN PATTERN OF SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA CONTINUES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH LOCAL CONVERGENCE ZONES OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST PER MSAS MAKING
FOR A FEW CLUSTERS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL. HOWEVER INSTABILITY RATHER WEAK
WITH ANALYSIS SHOWING CAPES OF ONLY 500-1000 J/KG AND THIS COMBO WITH
DRIER AIR ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT DEEP CONVECTION FOR THE MOST PART INTO
THIS EVENING. STILL APPEARS POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN CONCERN SO
RUNNING WITH MOSTLY CHANCE POPS INTO THIS EVENING INCLUDING SPOTTY
LIKELY POPS IN THE VERY NEAR TERM WHERE COVERAGE REMAINS BEST.

EXPECT A GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET WITH RESIDUAL
OUTFLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PERHAPS KEEPING LINGERING COVERAGE
AROUND ESPCLY MOUNTAINS INTO LATE EVENING. OTRW WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND
LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD MAKE FOR A PERIOD OF LITTLE POP FROM LATE
EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE
NW APPROACHES LATE. GUIDANCE DIFFERING ON TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF THE
LEADING AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE BUT MOST SHOW SOME WEAK WESTERN SLOPE
CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY TOWARD DAYBREAK. THIS SUPPORTS RETURNING
CHANCE POPS OVER THE FAR WEST LATE BUT LITTLE OUT TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE
AND POINTS EAST. OTRW MAINLY PC WITH PATCHY FOG AROUND AGAIN AND LOWS
MOSTLY IN THE 60S.

NEXT MID LEVEL WAVE SLIDES EAST AND CROSSES THE REGION FROM THE WEST
UNDER THE NEXT PASSING 5H TROUGH WELL TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY. BEST
SUPPORT/DYNAMICS SLIPS TO THE NORTH WHILE A TRAILING VORT LOBE WORKS
EAST OF THE BLUE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. APPEARS BETTER INSTABILITY PER
MORE INSOLATION WOULD SUPPORT SOME SORT OF BROKEN BAND OF SHRA/TSRA
EITHER SLIDING ACROSS OR DEVELOPING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND MOVING
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH BETTER HEATING...TRENDING TOWARD THE
SLOWER 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH WOULD HAVE MOST COVERAGE JUST ARRIVING
IN THE WEST MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN ALONG AND EASTWARD FROM
THE BLUE RIDGE LATER IN THE DAY. HOWEVER WILL HOLD ON GOING ANY HIGHER
THAN DECENT CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY BUT PERHAPS
ENOUGH OF A MID LEVEL JET AND STRONG LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
SEVERE THREAT MAINLY NORTH/EAST. KEPT HIGHS CLOSER TO THE WARMER MAV
MOS EAST AND A BLEND OF THE MET/MAV AND 2M ECMWF VALUES WEST WHERE
LIKELY MORE CLOUDS/SHRA EARLIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT TUESDAY...

SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO EXIT TO THE EAST DURING THE EVENING AND
SHOULD ALLOW A MAINLY DRY NIGHT FOR THE REGION...ASIDE FROM MAYBE
SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE AIDED SHOWERS IN THE FAR WEST. MOST LIKELY
THIS WAVE WILL BE TAKING AN AREA OF ZONE OF SCATTERED CONVECTION
EAST OF THE FCST AREA BY EVENING...BUT LEFT SOME LOW CHANCE POPS
IN FAR EAST DURING THE EVENING IN CASE THIS SLOWS DOWN. TIMING
SUBTLE WAVES IS TRICKY AND MOST MODELS IMPLY ANOTHER WEAK ONE
COULD ARRIVE BY THURSDAY MORNING TO KEEP SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
AND MAYBE EVEN A THUNDERSTORM IN THE WEST. NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW
CONTINUE INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT SO DONT WANT TO RULE THAT OUT...BUT
MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE ARRIVES LATE IN THE DAY THURS TO EARLY
EVENING FOR MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD OR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION...MAINLY IN THE WEST BUT SOME ACTIVITY COULD SPREAD
INTO PIEDMONT DESPITE NW FLOW GIVEN UPPER SUPPORT. DONT SEE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT MUCH SEVERE THREAT REACHING INTO
AREA...UNLESS TIMING IS A LITTLE FASTER BUT COULD BE ORGANIZED
LINE OR BOW ECHO TYPE STRUCTURES COMING THROUGH OHIO VALLEY AND
INTO WV SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON. MORE CONCERNED ABOUT HEAVY
RAINFALLRATES AND SOME AREAS GETTING MORE THAN ONE ROUND OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH YET
TO CONSIDER ANY KIND OF HEADLINE FOR FLOOD POTENTIAL....WHICH
WOULD BE CONFINED TO WESTERN SLOPES OF APPALACHIANS.

FRIDAY COULD BE A REPEAT IN SOME REGARDS...BUT AT THIS POINT
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE NOT LOOKING AS POTENT...IF ANYTHING AT ALL.
STILL COULD BE DIURNAL CONVECTION...AGAIN MAINLY WEST WITH NW
FLOW. AS PATTERN AMPLIFIES...MORE LIKELY FRI NIGHT AND INTO
SAT...BACK DOOR FRONT COULD SNEAK DOWN FROM NORTHEAST...BUT LOOKS
LIKE THAT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL OVERNIGHT. THUS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURE
WARM AGAIN FOR FRIDAY BUT STILL UNDER GFS MOS DUE TO LIKELY LOTS
OF CLOUD COVER. TRENDING UP THOUGH FROM PREV FCST SINCE BACK DOOR
FRONT IS EXPECTED AFTER DAY TIME. MAY NOT BE QUITE AS WARM AS
THURSDAY THOUGH...WHERE HAVE LOWER 90S GOING IN EAST WITH MORE
SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPE. GOING CLOSER TO ECMWF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS
BOTH THURS AND FRIDAY AS GFS HAS MID 90S THURSDAY AND LOWER 90S
FRI IN PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY THE
BATTLE BETWEEN LARGE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST TRYING TO BUILD INTO
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...WHILE TROUGH OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST DEEPENS
WHILE CLOSING OFF AND CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT IT WILL SET UP CLOSE
ENOUGH TO COAST TO PUSH BACK DOOR FRONT THROUGH AND WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BEFORE LIKELY WEAKENING AND ALLOWING
MORE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE TO BE FELT BY TUES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA IF WEAK/SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER WEDGE IS IN
PLACE EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE MIXING OUT OVER THE EAST.  WHILE
SURFACE WEDGE FRONT MAY BE WELL TO THE SOUTH DURING MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD...WITH STRONGEST SOUTHWARD PUSH ON SATURDAY...THE 850
BOUNDARY AND MOST LIKELY TRACK FOR UPPER S/WV ENERGY FROM THE NW IS
LIKELY TO BE RIGHT OVER THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA...AND THUS GOOD
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD.  TIMING
MOST LIKELY WINDOWS REMAINS TRICKY...AS MANY OF THESE WAVES ARE
STRONGLY INFLUENCE BY CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES THAT WILL DEVELOP WELL
UPSTREAM. LIKE THE TRENDS OVERALL THAT 12Z GFS IS TAKING...NOT ONLY
WITH RETURN TO SHARPER AMPLITUDE PATTERN...BUT IDEA OF TWO DISTINCT
WAVES HEADING FOR THE WESTERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA...ONE
SATURDAY AND ANOTHER ONE SUNDAY. EXACT TIMES MAY HELP DETERMINE IF
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY...WHICH WOULD LIKELY BE LIMITED TO
THE FAR WEST NEAR EDGE OF WEDGE BOUNDARY...BUT PERHAPS THE BIGGER
CONCERN IS RAINFALL THAT IS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE SAME AREAS AT LEAST
A COUPLE OF DAYS IN A ROW.

THERE COULD BE ANOTHER WAVE FOR MONDAY...BUT AS RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD IN AND TROUGH TO THE EAST AND ASSOCIATED WEDGE WEAKEN WHAT MAY
TEND TO OCCUR IS MORE DIURNAL POP-UP CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE BOUNDARY IN OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA
AS THE ATMOS DESTABILIZES MORE. BY TUESDAY THE SUPPORT TO KEEP WEDGE
IN PLACE SHOULD BE WEAKENING AS TROUGH LIFTS AND SFC HIGH SHIFTS
MORE EAST OF THE AREA...AND OVERALL IT LOOKS A LITTLE DRIER...BUT
NOT SURE ALL POPS CAN BE REMOVED.

GIVEN PATTERN WE`VE BEEN IN...REALLY DON`T HAVE CONFIDENCE TO DRY IT
OUT OR WARM IT UP TOO FAST...SO WILL LEAN TOWARD STRONGER INFLUENCE
OF THE WEDGE THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIP...WHICH WILL HELP STRENGTHEN THE WEDGE TOO.  UNDERCUT EVEN
COOLER ECMWF A LITTLE BIT FOR HIGHS...WITH A BIT MORE WARMING FOR
TUESDAY. BUT IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST THINGS MAY BE ABLE TO WARM UP VERY
QUICKLY A DAY OR TWO EARLIER THAN THIS IF THE WEDGE CAN BREAK AND
SOME OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE BIG UPPER RIDGE CAN BE REALIZED.  THIS
WILL EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP FOR OUR ENTIRE
AREA...BUT AM THINKING IT WILL NOT COME UNTIL MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

SCT-BKN STRATUS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH AREAS OF
MVFR VSBYS DUE TO FOG. FOG WILL BE THICKER IN THE MTN VALLEYS WITH
POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS AT BLF/LWB/BCB EARLY THIS MORNING.
INCREASING CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH SHRA/TSRA APPROACHING FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY MAY PREVENT THE FOG FROM BECOMING OVERLY DENSE...ANY
FOG DISSIPATING QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TODAY...AND INTO NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY. THE TROF AXIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS AXIS IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TODAY. ONGOING STORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT
APPROACHES THE MOUNTAINS OF WV AND FAR WRN VA AROUND
DAYBREAK...WITH REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS
BEFORE NOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE
OUTFLOW AND THEN MOVE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.

BKN LINE OF SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE TERMINAL AREAS
TODAY...PASSING THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN TERMINALS AROUND NOON...THEN
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. STORMINESS SHOULD
CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z/8PM THIS EVENING WITH ACTIVITY
MOVING EAST. AREAS OF FOG WILL THEN RE-DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF MVFR AND POTENTIAL FOR IFR VSBYS AGAIN
THURSDAY MORNING.


EXTENDED AVIATION... WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
UNSETTLED AND HIGHLY VARIABLE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A
STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS STALLED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH PERIODICALLY
RESULTING IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DUE TO THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR...EXPECT STRATUS AND
FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR MOST
PRONOUNCED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 9AM EACH DAY. MODELS ARE INDICATED
THAT A DEEPER EASTERLY SORT OF WIND FLOW WILL SETUP FOR THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS SUGGEST THAT LOW CIGS MAY PERSIST EVEN
DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD
MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND DUE TO MOISTURE
BANKING UP AGAINST THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF/SK
NEAR TERM...JH/RAB
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...PM



000
FXUS61 KRNK 200613
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
213 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACKING EAST AND SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE BOUNDARY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
REGION EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1000 PM EDT TUESDAY...

SEVERAL HOURS WHERE CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTENT THROUGH THE
EVENING...PROMPTING ONE SVR FOR ROCKBRIDGE DUE TO DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL. OVERALL...HOWEVER...THE MAIN CONCERN HAS BEEN SLOW
MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS...AND
CONSEQUENTLY COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN WHERE THE ACTIVITY OCCURS.
SEVERAL SPOTS...INCLUDING WILKES...ROCKBRIDGE...AND
BEDFORD/CAMPBELL HAVE SEEN 1.5 TO 2.5 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS
EVENING ACCORDING TO DUAL-POL PROMPTING LOCALIZED FLOOD
ADVISORIES. NO REPORTS OF ANY SPECIFIC PROBLEMS HOWEVER. TEMPS
WERE A LITTLE HIGH BASED ON CURRENT READINGS...SO ADJUSTED THEM
DOWNWARD. DEWPOINTS WERE REASONABLE NEEDING ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENT.

AS OF 250 PM EDT TUESDAY...

SHOTGUN PATTERN OF SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA CONTINUES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH LOCAL CONVERGENCE ZONES OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST PER MSAS MAKING
FOR A FEW CLUSTERS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL. HOWEVER INSTABILITY RATHER WEAK
WITH ANALYSIS SHOWING CAPES OF ONLY 500-1000 J/KG AND THIS COMBO WITH
DRIER AIR ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT DEEP CONVECTION FOR THE MOST PART INTO
THIS EVENING. STILL APPEARS POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN CONCERN SO
RUNNING WITH MOSTLY CHANCE POPS INTO THIS EVENING INCLUDING SPOTTY
LIKELY POPS IN THE VERY NEAR TERM WHERE COVERAGE REMAINS BEST.

EXPECT A GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET WITH RESIDUAL
OUTFLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PERHAPS KEEPING LINGERING COVERAGE
AROUND ESPCLY MOUNTAINS INTO LATE EVENING. OTRW WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND
LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD MAKE FOR A PERIOD OF LITTLE POP FROM LATE
EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE
NW APPROACHES LATE. GUIDANCE DIFFERING ON TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF THE
LEADING AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE BUT MOST SHOW SOME WEAK WESTERN SLOPE
CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY TOWARD DAYBREAK. THIS SUPPORTS RETURNING
CHANCE POPS OVER THE FAR WEST LATE BUT LITTLE OUT TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE
AND POINTS EAST. OTRW MAINLY PC WITH PATCHY FOG AROUND AGAIN AND LOWS
MOSTLY IN THE 60S.

NEXT MID LEVEL WAVE SLIDES EAST AND CROSSES THE REGION FROM THE WEST
UNDER THE NEXT PASSING 5H TROUGH WELL TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY. BEST
SUPPORT/DYNAMICS SLIPS TO THE NORTH WHILE A TRAILING VORT LOBE WORKS
EAST OF THE BLUE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. APPEARS BETTER INSTABILITY PER
MORE INSOLATION WOULD SUPPORT SOME SORT OF BROKEN BAND OF SHRA/TSRA
EITHER SLIDING ACROSS OR DEVELOPING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND MOVING
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH BETTER HEATING...TRENDING TOWARD THE
SLOWER 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH WOULD HAVE MOST COVERAGE JUST ARRIVING
IN THE WEST MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN ALONG AND EASTWARD FROM
THE BLUE RIDGE LATER IN THE DAY. HOWEVER WILL HOLD ON GOING ANY HIGHER
THAN DECENT CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY BUT PERHAPS
ENOUGH OF A MID LEVEL JET AND STRONG LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
SEVERE THREAT MAINLY NORTH/EAST. KEPT HIGHS CLOSER TO THE WARMER MAV
MOS EAST AND A BLEND OF THE MET/MAV AND 2M ECMWF VALUES WEST WHERE
LIKELY MORE CLOUDS/SHRA EARLIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT TUESDAY...

SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO EXIT TO THE EAST DURING THE EVENING AND
SHOULD ALLOW A MAINLY DRY NIGHT FOR THE REGION...ASIDE FROM MAYBE
SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE AIDED SHOWERS IN THE FAR WEST. MOST LIKELY
THIS WAVE WILL BE TAKING AN AREA OF ZONE OF SCATTERED CONVECTION
EAST OF THE FCST AREA BY EVENING...BUT LEFT SOME LOW CHANCE POPS
IN FAR EAST DURING THE EVENING IN CASE THIS SLOWS DOWN. TIMING
SUBTLE WAVES IS TRICKY AND MOST MODELS IMPLY ANOTHER WEAK ONE
COULD ARRIVE BY THURSDAY MORNING TO KEEP SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
AND MAYBE EVEN A THUNDERSTORM IN THE WEST. NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW
CONTINUE INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT SO DONT WANT TO RULE THAT OUT...BUT
MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE ARRIVES LATE IN THE DAY THURS TO EARLY
EVENING FOR MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD OR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION...MAINLY IN THE WEST BUT SOME ACTIVITY COULD SPREAD
INTO PIEDMONT DESPITE NW FLOW GIVEN UPPER SUPPORT. DONT SEE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT MUCH SEVERE THREAT REACHING INTO
AREA...UNLESS TIMING IS A LITTLE FASTER BUT COULD BE ORGANIZED
LINE OR BOW ECHO TYPE STRUCTURES COMING THROUGH OHIO VALLEY AND
INTO WV SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON. MORE CONCERNED ABOUT HEAVY
RAINFALLRATES AND SOME AREAS GETTING MORE THAN ONE ROUND OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH YET
TO CONSIDER ANY KIND OF HEADLINE FOR FLOOD POTENTIAL....WHICH
WOULD BE CONFINED TO WESTERN SLOPES OF APPALACHIANS.

FRIDAY COULD BE A REPEAT IN SOME REGARDS...BUT AT THIS POINT
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE NOT LOOKING AS POTENT...IF ANYTHING AT ALL.
STILL COULD BE DIURNAL CONVECTION...AGAIN MAINLY WEST WITH NW
FLOW. AS PATTERN AMPLIFIES...MORE LIKELY FRI NIGHT AND INTO
SAT...BACK DOOR FRONT COULD SNEAK DOWN FROM NORTHEAST...BUT LOOKS
LIKE THAT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL OVERNIGHT. THUS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURE
WARM AGAIN FOR FRIDAY BUT STILL UNDER GFS MOS DUE TO LIKELY LOTS
OF CLOUD COVER. TRENDING UP THOUGH FROM PREV FCST SINCE BACK DOOR
FRONT IS EXPECTED AFTER DAY TIME. MAY NOT BE QUITE AS WARM AS
THURSDAY THOUGH...WHERE HAVE LOWER 90S GOING IN EAST WITH MORE
SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPE. GOING CLOSER TO ECMWF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS
BOTH THURS AND FRIDAY AS GFS HAS MID 90S THURSDAY AND LOWER 90S
FRI IN PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY THE
BATTLE BETWEEN LARGE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST TRYING TO BUILD INTO
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...WHILE TROUGH OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST DEEPENS
WHILE CLOSING OFF AND CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT IT WILL SET UP CLOSE
ENOUGH TO COAST TO PUSH BACK DOOR FRONT THROUGH AND WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BEFORE LIKELY WEAKENING AND ALLOWING
MORE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE TO BE FELT BY TUES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA IF WEAK/SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER WEDGE IS IN
PLACE EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE MIXING OUT OVER THE EAST.  WHILE
SURFACE WEDGE FRONT MAY BE WELL TO THE SOUTH DURING MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD...WITH STRONGEST SOUTHWARD PUSH ON SATURDAY...THE 850
BOUNDARY AND MOST LIKELY TRACK FOR UPPER S/WV ENERGY FROM THE NW IS
LIKELY TO BE RIGHT OVER THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA...AND THUS GOOD
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD.  TIMING
MOST LIKELY WINDOWS REMAINS TRICKY...AS MANY OF THESE WAVES ARE
STRONGLY INFLUENCE BY CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES THAT WILL DEVELOP WELL
UPSTREAM. LIKE THE TRENDS OVERALL THAT 12Z GFS IS TAKING...NOT ONLY
WITH RETURN TO SHARPER AMPLITUDE PATTERN...BUT IDEA OF TWO DISTINCT
WAVES HEADING FOR THE WESTERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA...ONE
SATURDAY AND ANOTHER ONE SUNDAY. EXACT TIMES MAY HELP DETERMINE IF
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY...WHICH WOULD LIKELY BE LIMITED TO
THE FAR WEST NEAR EDGE OF WEDGE BOUNDARY...BUT PERHAPS THE BIGGER
CONCERN IS RAINFALL THAT IS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE SAME AREAS AT LEAST
A COUPLE OF DAYS IN A ROW.

THERE COULD BE ANOTHER WAVE FOR MONDAY...BUT AS RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD IN AND TROUGH TO THE EAST AND ASSOCIATED WEDGE WEAKEN WHAT MAY
TEND TO OCCUR IS MORE DIURNAL POP-UP CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE BOUNDARY IN OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA
AS THE ATMOS DESTABILIZES MORE. BY TUESDAY THE SUPPORT TO KEEP WEDGE
IN PLACE SHOULD BE WEAKENING AS TROUGH LIFTS AND SFC HIGH SHIFTS
MORE EAST OF THE AREA...AND OVERALL IT LOOKS A LITTLE DRIER...BUT
NOT SURE ALL POPS CAN BE REMOVED.

GIVEN PATTERN WE`VE BEEN IN...REALLY DON`T HAVE CONFIDENCE TO DRY IT
OUT OR WARM IT UP TOO FAST...SO WILL LEAN TOWARD STRONGER INFLUENCE
OF THE WEDGE THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIP...WHICH WILL HELP STRENGTHEN THE WEDGE TOO.  UNDERCUT EVEN
COOLER ECMWF A LITTLE BIT FOR HIGHS...WITH A BIT MORE WARMING FOR
TUESDAY. BUT IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST THINGS MAY BE ABLE TO WARM UP VERY
QUICKLY A DAY OR TWO EARLIER THAN THIS IF THE WEDGE CAN BREAK AND
SOME OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE BIG UPPER RIDGE CAN BE REALIZED.  THIS
WILL EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP FOR OUR ENTIRE
AREA...BUT AM THINKING IT WILL NOT COME UNTIL MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

SCT-BKN STRATUS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH AREAS OF
MVFR VSBYS DUE TO FOG. FOG WILL BE THICKER IN THE MTN VALLEYS WITH
POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS AT BLF/LWB/BCB EARLY THIS MORNING.
INCREASING CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH SHRA/TSRA APPROACHING FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY MAY PREVENT THE FOG FROM BECOMING OVERLY DENSE...ANY
FOG DISSIPATING QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TODAY...AND INTO NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY. THE TROF AXIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS AXIS IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TODAY. ONGOING STORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT
APPROACHES THE MOUNTAINS OF WV AND FAR WRN VA AROUND
DAYBREAK...WITH REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS
BEFORE NOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE
OUTFLOW AND THEN MOVE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.

BKN LINE OF SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE TERMINAL AREAS
TODAY...PASSING THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN TERMINALS AROUND NOON...THEN
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. STORMINESS SHOULD
CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z/8PM THIS EVENING WITH ACTIVITY
MOVING EAST. AREAS OF FOG WILL THEN RE-DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF MVFR AND POTENTIAL FOR IFR VSBYS AGAIN
THURSDAY MORNING.


EXTENDED AVIATION... WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
UNSETTLED AND HIGHLY VARIABLE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A
STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS STALLED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH PERIODICALLY
RESULTING IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DUE TO THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR...EXPECT STRATUS AND
FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR MOST
PRONOUNCED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 9AM EACH DAY. MODELS ARE INDICATED
THAT A DEEPER EASTERLY SORT OF WIND FLOW WILL SETUP FOR THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS SUGGEST THAT LOW CIGS MAY PERSIST EVEN
DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD
MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND DUE TO MOISTURE
BANKING UP AGAINST THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF/SK
NEAR TERM...JH/RAB
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...PM



000
FXUS61 KRNK 200216
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1016 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACKING EAST AND SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE BOUNDARY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
REGION EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1000 PM EDT TUESDAY...

SEVERAL HOURS WHERE CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTENT THROUGH THE
EVENING...PROMPTING ONE SVR FOR ROCKBRIDGE DUE TO DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL. OVERALL...HOWEVER...THE MAIN CONCERN HAS BEEN SLOW
MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS...AND
CONSEQUENTLY COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN WHERE THE ACTIVITY OCCURS.
SEVERAL SPOTS...INCLUDING WILKES...ROCKBRIDGE...AND
BEDFORD/CAMPBELL HAVE SEEN 1.5 TO 2.5 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS
EVENING ACCORDING TO DUAL-POL PROMPTING LOCALIZED FLOOD
ADVISORIES. NO REPORTS OF ANY SPECIFIC PROBLEMS HOWEVER. TEMPS
WERE A LITTLE HIGH BASED ON CURRENT READINGS...SO ADJUSTED THEM
DOWNWARD. DEWPOINTS WERE REASONABLE NEEDING ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENT.

AS OF 250 PM EDT TUESDAY...

SHOTGUN PATTERN OF SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA CONTINUES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH LOCAL CONVERGENCE ZONES OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST PER MSAS MAKING
FOR A FEW CLUSTERS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL. HOWEVER INSTABILITY RATHER WEAK
WITH ANALYSIS SHOWING CAPES OF ONLY 500-1000 J/KG AND THIS COMBO WITH
DRIER AIR ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT DEEP CONVECTION FOR THE MOST PART INTO
THIS EVENING. STILL APPEARS POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN CONCERN SO
RUNNING WITH MOSTLY CHANCE POPS INTO THIS EVENING INCLUDING SPOTTY
LIKELY POPS IN THE VERY NEAR TERM WHERE COVERAGE REMAINS BEST.

EXPECT A GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET WITH RESIDUAL
OUTFLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PERHAPS KEEPING LINGERING COVERAGE
AROUND ESPCLY MOUNTAINS INTO LATE EVENING. OTRW WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND
LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD MAKE FOR A PERIOD OF LITTLE POP FROM LATE
EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE
NW APPROACHES LATE. GUIDANCE DIFFERING ON TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF THE
LEADING AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE BUT MOST SHOW SOME WEAK WESTERN SLOPE
CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY TOWARD DAYBREAK. THIS SUPPORTS RETURNING
CHANCE POPS OVER THE FAR WEST LATE BUT LITTLE OUT TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE
AND POINTS EAST. OTRW MAINLY PC WITH PATCHY FOG AROUND AGAIN AND LOWS
MOSTLY IN THE 60S.

NEXT MID LEVEL WAVE SLIDES EAST AND CROSSES THE REGION FROM THE WEST
UNDER THE NEXT PASSING 5H TROUGH WELL TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY. BEST
SUPPORT/DYNAMICS SLIPS TO THE NORTH WHILE A TRAILING VORT LOBE WORKS
EAST OF THE BLUE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. APPEARS BETTER INSTABILITY PER
MORE INSOLATION WOULD SUPPORT SOME SORT OF BROKEN BAND OF SHRA/TSRA
EITHER SLIDING ACROSS OR DEVELOPING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND MOVING
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH BETTER HEATING...TRENDING TOWARD THE
SLOWER 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH WOULD HAVE MOST COVERAGE JUST ARRIVING
IN THE WEST MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN ALONG AND EASTWARD FROM
THE BLUE RIDGE LATER IN THE DAY. HOWEVER WILL HOLD ON GOING ANY HIGHER
THAN DECENT CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY BUT PERHAPS
ENOUGH OF A MID LEVEL JET AND STRONG LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
SEVERE THREAT MAINLY NORTH/EAST. KEPT HIGHS CLOSER TO THE WARMER MAV
MOS EAST AND A BLEND OF THE MET/MAV AND 2M ECMWF VALUES WEST WHERE
LIKELY MORE CLOUDS/SHRA EARLIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT TUESDAY...

SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO EXIT TO THE EAST DURING THE EVENING AND
SHOULD ALLOW A MAINLY DRY NIGHT FOR THE REGION...ASIDE FROM MAYBE
SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE AIDED SHOWERS IN THE FAR WEST. MOST LIKELY
THIS WAVE WILL BE TAKING AN AREA OF ZONE OF SCATTERED CONVECTION
EAST OF THE FCST AREA BY EVENING...BUT LEFT SOME LOW CHANCE POPS
IN FAR EAST DURING THE EVENING IN CASE THIS SLOWS DOWN. TIMING
SUBTLE WAVES IS TRICKY AND MOST MODELS IMPLY ANOTHER WEAK ONE
COULD ARRIVE BY THURSDAY MORNING TO KEEP SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
AND MAYBE EVEN A THUNDERSTORM IN THE WEST. NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW
CONTINUE INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT SO DONT WANT TO RULE THAT OUT...BUT
MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE ARRIVES LATE IN THE DAY THURS TO EARLY
EVENING FOR MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD OR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION...MAINLY IN THE WEST BUT SOME ACTIVITY COULD SPREAD
INTO PIEDMONT DESPITE NW FLOW GIVEN UPPER SUPPORT. DONT SEE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT MUCH SEVERE THREAT REACHING INTO
AREA...UNLESS TIMING IS A LITTLE FASTER BUT COULD BE ORGANIZED
LINE OR BOW ECHO TYPE STRUCTURES COMING THROUGH OHIO VALLEY AND
INTO WV SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON. MORE CONCERNED ABOUT HEAVY
RAINFALLRATES AND SOME AREAS GETTING MORE THAN ONE ROUND OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH YET
TO CONSIDER ANY KIND OF HEADLINE FOR FLOOD POTENTIAL....WHICH
WOULD BE CONFINED TO WESTERN SLOPES OF APPALACHIANS.

FRIDAY COULD BE A REPEAT IN SOME REGARDS...BUT AT THIS POINT
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE NOT LOOKING AS POTENT...IF ANYTHING AT ALL.
STILL COULD BE DIURNAL CONVECTION...AGAIN MAINLY WEST WITH NW
FLOW. AS PATTERN AMPLIFIES...MORE LIKELY FRI NIGHT AND INTO
SAT...BACK DOOR FRONT COULD SNEAK DOWN FROM NORTHEAST...BUT LOOKS
LIKE THAT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL OVERNIGHT. THUS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURE
WARM AGAIN FOR FRIDAY BUT STILL UNDER GFS MOS DUE TO LIKELY LOTS
OF CLOUD COVER. TRENDING UP THOUGH FROM PREV FCST SINCE BACK DOOR
FRONT IS EXPECTED AFTER DAY TIME. MAY NOT BE QUITE AS WARM AS
THURSDAY THOUGH...WHERE HAVE LOWER 90S GOING IN EAST WITH MORE
SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPE. GOING CLOSER TO ECMWF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS
BOTH THURS AND FRIDAY AS GFS HAS MID 90S THURSDAY AND LOWER 90S
FRI IN PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY THE
BATTLE BETWEEN LARGE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST TRYING TO BUILD INTO
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...WHILE TROUGH OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST DEEPENS
WHILE CLOSING OFF AND CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT IT WILL SET UP CLOSE
ENOUGH TO COAST TO PUSH BACK DOOR FRONT THROUGH AND WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BEFORE LIKELY WEAKENING AND ALLOWING
MORE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE TO BE FELT BY TUES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA IF WEAK/SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER WEDGE IS IN
PLACE EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE MIXING OUT OVER THE EAST.  WHILE
SURFACE WEDGE FRONT MAY BE WELL TO THE SOUTH DURING MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD...WITH STRONGEST SOUTHWARD PUSH ON SATURDAY...THE 850
BOUNDARY AND MOST LIKELY TRACK FOR UPPER S/WV ENERGY FROM THE NW IS
LIKELY TO BE RIGHT OVER THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA...AND THUS GOOD
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD.  TIMING
MOST LIKELY WINDOWS REMAINS TRICKY...AS MANY OF THESE WAVES ARE
STRONGLY INFLUENCE BY CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES THAT WILL DEVELOP WELL
UPSTREAM. LIKE THE TRENDS OVERALL THAT 12Z GFS IS TAKING...NOT ONLY
WITH RETURN TO SHARPER AMPLITUDE PATTERN...BUT IDEA OF TWO DISTINCT
WAVES HEADING FOR THE WESTERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA...ONE
SATURDAY AND ANOTHER ONE SUNDAY. EXACT TIMES MAY HELP DETERMINE IF
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY...WHICH WOULD LIKELY BE LIMITED TO
THE FAR WEST NEAR EDGE OF WEDGE BOUNDARY...BUT PERHAPS THE BIGGER
CONCERN IS RAINFALL THAT IS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE SAME AREAS AT LEAST
A COUPLE OF DAYS IN A ROW.

THERE COULD BE ANOTHER WAVE FOR MONDAY...BUT AS RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD IN AND TROUGH TO THE EAST AND ASSOCIATED WEDGE WEAKEN WHAT MAY
TEND TO OCCUR IS MORE DIURNAL POP-UP CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE BOUNDARY IN OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA
AS THE ATMOS DESTABILIZES MORE. BY TUESDAY THE SUPPORT TO KEEP WEDGE
IN PLACE SHOULD BE WEAKENING AS TROUGH LIFTS AND SFC HIGH SHIFTS
MORE EAST OF THE AREA...AND OVERALL IT LOOKS A LITTLE DRIER...BUT
NOT SURE ALL POPS CAN BE REMOVED.

GIVEN PATTERN WE`VE BEEN IN...REALLY DON`T HAVE CONFIDENCE TO DRY IT
OUT OR WARM IT UP TOO FAST...SO WILL LEAN TOWARD STRONGER INFLUENCE
OF THE WEDGE THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIP...WHICH WILL HELP STRENGTHEN THE WEDGE TOO.  UNDERCUT EVEN
COOLER ECMWF A LITTLE BIT FOR HIGHS...WITH A BIT MORE WARMING FOR
TUESDAY. BUT IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST THINGS MAY BE ABLE TO WARM UP VERY
QUICKLY A DAY OR TWO EARLIER THAN THIS IF THE WEDGE CAN BREAK AND
SOME OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE BIG UPPER RIDGE CAN BE REALIZED.  THIS
WILL EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP FOR OUR ENTIRE
AREA...BUT AM THINKING IT WILL NOT COME UNTIL MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM EDT TUESDAY...

STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT AS CLOSED UPPER
LOW SLOWLY WORKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND A STALLED
FRONT MEANDERS IN OUR VICINITY AT THE SURFACE. ANOTHER PULSE OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW AND WILL INTERACT
WITH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. RADAR DISPLAYING A FEW STRONG CELLS OVER THE
ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS AND NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS AT 7P/23Z. THESE
STORMS ARE TRACKING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE ALLEGHANY
HIGHLAND STORM IS TRACKING TOWARDS KLYH AND COULD IMPACT TRAFFIC
AFTER 9P/1Z FOR A FEW HOURS. IF THIS RAIN DOES MAKE IT TO LYH THIS
EVENING...OVERNIGHT LIFR FOG/LOW CLOUDS LIKELY. ELSEWHERE...CLOUDS
ARE THINNING THIS EVENING BUT WILL OVER TAKE THE AREA THROUGH THE
NIGHT. KEPT MAJORITY OF THE CEILINGS VFR OVERNIGHT BUT WITH A
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...ADDED MVFR CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG TOWARDS DAY
BREAK. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY HANG AROUND INTO MID MORNING THEN
LIFT TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON. WITH MORE SUN...INSTABILITIES WILL
INCREASE WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST 6-10KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION... AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
UNSETTLED AND VARIABLE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE PATTERN
REMAINS SLUGGISH WITH WAVES OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH WITH A LOT OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THERE WILL BE A DIURNAL FLAVOR TO THINGS
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AT NIGHT WITH IFR/LIFR THEN SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCE FOR VFR WILL BE LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON AFTER FOG/LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF AND
BEFORE CONVECTION BEGINS. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR POSSIBILITY
OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING UPSTREAM AND AFFECTING TAF SITES AT
NIGHT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF/SK
NEAR TERM...JH/RAB
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...MBS/RCS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 200216
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1016 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACKING EAST AND SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE BOUNDARY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
REGION EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1000 PM EDT TUESDAY...

SEVERAL HOURS WHERE CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTENT THROUGH THE
EVENING...PROMPTING ONE SVR FOR ROCKBRIDGE DUE TO DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL. OVERALL...HOWEVER...THE MAIN CONCERN HAS BEEN SLOW
MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS...AND
CONSEQUENTLY COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN WHERE THE ACTIVITY OCCURS.
SEVERAL SPOTS...INCLUDING WILKES...ROCKBRIDGE...AND
BEDFORD/CAMPBELL HAVE SEEN 1.5 TO 2.5 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS
EVENING ACCORDING TO DUAL-POL PROMPTING LOCALIZED FLOOD
ADVISORIES. NO REPORTS OF ANY SPECIFIC PROBLEMS HOWEVER. TEMPS
WERE A LITTLE HIGH BASED ON CURRENT READINGS...SO ADJUSTED THEM
DOWNWARD. DEWPOINTS WERE REASONABLE NEEDING ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENT.

AS OF 250 PM EDT TUESDAY...

SHOTGUN PATTERN OF SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA CONTINUES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH LOCAL CONVERGENCE ZONES OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST PER MSAS MAKING
FOR A FEW CLUSTERS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL. HOWEVER INSTABILITY RATHER WEAK
WITH ANALYSIS SHOWING CAPES OF ONLY 500-1000 J/KG AND THIS COMBO WITH
DRIER AIR ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT DEEP CONVECTION FOR THE MOST PART INTO
THIS EVENING. STILL APPEARS POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN CONCERN SO
RUNNING WITH MOSTLY CHANCE POPS INTO THIS EVENING INCLUDING SPOTTY
LIKELY POPS IN THE VERY NEAR TERM WHERE COVERAGE REMAINS BEST.

EXPECT A GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET WITH RESIDUAL
OUTFLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PERHAPS KEEPING LINGERING COVERAGE
AROUND ESPCLY MOUNTAINS INTO LATE EVENING. OTRW WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND
LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD MAKE FOR A PERIOD OF LITTLE POP FROM LATE
EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE
NW APPROACHES LATE. GUIDANCE DIFFERING ON TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF THE
LEADING AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE BUT MOST SHOW SOME WEAK WESTERN SLOPE
CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY TOWARD DAYBREAK. THIS SUPPORTS RETURNING
CHANCE POPS OVER THE FAR WEST LATE BUT LITTLE OUT TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE
AND POINTS EAST. OTRW MAINLY PC WITH PATCHY FOG AROUND AGAIN AND LOWS
MOSTLY IN THE 60S.

NEXT MID LEVEL WAVE SLIDES EAST AND CROSSES THE REGION FROM THE WEST
UNDER THE NEXT PASSING 5H TROUGH WELL TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY. BEST
SUPPORT/DYNAMICS SLIPS TO THE NORTH WHILE A TRAILING VORT LOBE WORKS
EAST OF THE BLUE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. APPEARS BETTER INSTABILITY PER
MORE INSOLATION WOULD SUPPORT SOME SORT OF BROKEN BAND OF SHRA/TSRA
EITHER SLIDING ACROSS OR DEVELOPING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND MOVING
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH BETTER HEATING...TRENDING TOWARD THE
SLOWER 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH WOULD HAVE MOST COVERAGE JUST ARRIVING
IN THE WEST MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN ALONG AND EASTWARD FROM
THE BLUE RIDGE LATER IN THE DAY. HOWEVER WILL HOLD ON GOING ANY HIGHER
THAN DECENT CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY BUT PERHAPS
ENOUGH OF A MID LEVEL JET AND STRONG LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
SEVERE THREAT MAINLY NORTH/EAST. KEPT HIGHS CLOSER TO THE WARMER MAV
MOS EAST AND A BLEND OF THE MET/MAV AND 2M ECMWF VALUES WEST WHERE
LIKELY MORE CLOUDS/SHRA EARLIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT TUESDAY...

SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO EXIT TO THE EAST DURING THE EVENING AND
SHOULD ALLOW A MAINLY DRY NIGHT FOR THE REGION...ASIDE FROM MAYBE
SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE AIDED SHOWERS IN THE FAR WEST. MOST LIKELY
THIS WAVE WILL BE TAKING AN AREA OF ZONE OF SCATTERED CONVECTION
EAST OF THE FCST AREA BY EVENING...BUT LEFT SOME LOW CHANCE POPS
IN FAR EAST DURING THE EVENING IN CASE THIS SLOWS DOWN. TIMING
SUBTLE WAVES IS TRICKY AND MOST MODELS IMPLY ANOTHER WEAK ONE
COULD ARRIVE BY THURSDAY MORNING TO KEEP SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
AND MAYBE EVEN A THUNDERSTORM IN THE WEST. NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW
CONTINUE INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT SO DONT WANT TO RULE THAT OUT...BUT
MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE ARRIVES LATE IN THE DAY THURS TO EARLY
EVENING FOR MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD OR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION...MAINLY IN THE WEST BUT SOME ACTIVITY COULD SPREAD
INTO PIEDMONT DESPITE NW FLOW GIVEN UPPER SUPPORT. DONT SEE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT MUCH SEVERE THREAT REACHING INTO
AREA...UNLESS TIMING IS A LITTLE FASTER BUT COULD BE ORGANIZED
LINE OR BOW ECHO TYPE STRUCTURES COMING THROUGH OHIO VALLEY AND
INTO WV SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON. MORE CONCERNED ABOUT HEAVY
RAINFALLRATES AND SOME AREAS GETTING MORE THAN ONE ROUND OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH YET
TO CONSIDER ANY KIND OF HEADLINE FOR FLOOD POTENTIAL....WHICH
WOULD BE CONFINED TO WESTERN SLOPES OF APPALACHIANS.

FRIDAY COULD BE A REPEAT IN SOME REGARDS...BUT AT THIS POINT
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE NOT LOOKING AS POTENT...IF ANYTHING AT ALL.
STILL COULD BE DIURNAL CONVECTION...AGAIN MAINLY WEST WITH NW
FLOW. AS PATTERN AMPLIFIES...MORE LIKELY FRI NIGHT AND INTO
SAT...BACK DOOR FRONT COULD SNEAK DOWN FROM NORTHEAST...BUT LOOKS
LIKE THAT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL OVERNIGHT. THUS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURE
WARM AGAIN FOR FRIDAY BUT STILL UNDER GFS MOS DUE TO LIKELY LOTS
OF CLOUD COVER. TRENDING UP THOUGH FROM PREV FCST SINCE BACK DOOR
FRONT IS EXPECTED AFTER DAY TIME. MAY NOT BE QUITE AS WARM AS
THURSDAY THOUGH...WHERE HAVE LOWER 90S GOING IN EAST WITH MORE
SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPE. GOING CLOSER TO ECMWF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS
BOTH THURS AND FRIDAY AS GFS HAS MID 90S THURSDAY AND LOWER 90S
FRI IN PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY THE
BATTLE BETWEEN LARGE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST TRYING TO BUILD INTO
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...WHILE TROUGH OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST DEEPENS
WHILE CLOSING OFF AND CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT IT WILL SET UP CLOSE
ENOUGH TO COAST TO PUSH BACK DOOR FRONT THROUGH AND WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BEFORE LIKELY WEAKENING AND ALLOWING
MORE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE TO BE FELT BY TUES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA IF WEAK/SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER WEDGE IS IN
PLACE EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE MIXING OUT OVER THE EAST.  WHILE
SURFACE WEDGE FRONT MAY BE WELL TO THE SOUTH DURING MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD...WITH STRONGEST SOUTHWARD PUSH ON SATURDAY...THE 850
BOUNDARY AND MOST LIKELY TRACK FOR UPPER S/WV ENERGY FROM THE NW IS
LIKELY TO BE RIGHT OVER THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA...AND THUS GOOD
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD.  TIMING
MOST LIKELY WINDOWS REMAINS TRICKY...AS MANY OF THESE WAVES ARE
STRONGLY INFLUENCE BY CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES THAT WILL DEVELOP WELL
UPSTREAM. LIKE THE TRENDS OVERALL THAT 12Z GFS IS TAKING...NOT ONLY
WITH RETURN TO SHARPER AMPLITUDE PATTERN...BUT IDEA OF TWO DISTINCT
WAVES HEADING FOR THE WESTERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA...ONE
SATURDAY AND ANOTHER ONE SUNDAY. EXACT TIMES MAY HELP DETERMINE IF
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY...WHICH WOULD LIKELY BE LIMITED TO
THE FAR WEST NEAR EDGE OF WEDGE BOUNDARY...BUT PERHAPS THE BIGGER
CONCERN IS RAINFALL THAT IS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE SAME AREAS AT LEAST
A COUPLE OF DAYS IN A ROW.

THERE COULD BE ANOTHER WAVE FOR MONDAY...BUT AS RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD IN AND TROUGH TO THE EAST AND ASSOCIATED WEDGE WEAKEN WHAT MAY
TEND TO OCCUR IS MORE DIURNAL POP-UP CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE BOUNDARY IN OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA
AS THE ATMOS DESTABILIZES MORE. BY TUESDAY THE SUPPORT TO KEEP WEDGE
IN PLACE SHOULD BE WEAKENING AS TROUGH LIFTS AND SFC HIGH SHIFTS
MORE EAST OF THE AREA...AND OVERALL IT LOOKS A LITTLE DRIER...BUT
NOT SURE ALL POPS CAN BE REMOVED.

GIVEN PATTERN WE`VE BEEN IN...REALLY DON`T HAVE CONFIDENCE TO DRY IT
OUT OR WARM IT UP TOO FAST...SO WILL LEAN TOWARD STRONGER INFLUENCE
OF THE WEDGE THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIP...WHICH WILL HELP STRENGTHEN THE WEDGE TOO.  UNDERCUT EVEN
COOLER ECMWF A LITTLE BIT FOR HIGHS...WITH A BIT MORE WARMING FOR
TUESDAY. BUT IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST THINGS MAY BE ABLE TO WARM UP VERY
QUICKLY A DAY OR TWO EARLIER THAN THIS IF THE WEDGE CAN BREAK AND
SOME OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE BIG UPPER RIDGE CAN BE REALIZED.  THIS
WILL EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP FOR OUR ENTIRE
AREA...BUT AM THINKING IT WILL NOT COME UNTIL MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM EDT TUESDAY...

STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT AS CLOSED UPPER
LOW SLOWLY WORKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND A STALLED
FRONT MEANDERS IN OUR VICINITY AT THE SURFACE. ANOTHER PULSE OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW AND WILL INTERACT
WITH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. RADAR DISPLAYING A FEW STRONG CELLS OVER THE
ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS AND NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS AT 7P/23Z. THESE
STORMS ARE TRACKING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE ALLEGHANY
HIGHLAND STORM IS TRACKING TOWARDS KLYH AND COULD IMPACT TRAFFIC
AFTER 9P/1Z FOR A FEW HOURS. IF THIS RAIN DOES MAKE IT TO LYH THIS
EVENING...OVERNIGHT LIFR FOG/LOW CLOUDS LIKELY. ELSEWHERE...CLOUDS
ARE THINNING THIS EVENING BUT WILL OVER TAKE THE AREA THROUGH THE
NIGHT. KEPT MAJORITY OF THE CEILINGS VFR OVERNIGHT BUT WITH A
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...ADDED MVFR CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG TOWARDS DAY
BREAK. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY HANG AROUND INTO MID MORNING THEN
LIFT TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON. WITH MORE SUN...INSTABILITIES WILL
INCREASE WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST 6-10KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION... AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
UNSETTLED AND VARIABLE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE PATTERN
REMAINS SLUGGISH WITH WAVES OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH WITH A LOT OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THERE WILL BE A DIURNAL FLAVOR TO THINGS
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AT NIGHT WITH IFR/LIFR THEN SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCE FOR VFR WILL BE LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON AFTER FOG/LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF AND
BEFORE CONVECTION BEGINS. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR POSSIBILITY
OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING UPSTREAM AND AFFECTING TAF SITES AT
NIGHT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF/SK
NEAR TERM...JH/RAB
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...MBS/RCS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 200216
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1016 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACKING EAST AND SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE BOUNDARY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
REGION EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1000 PM EDT TUESDAY...

SEVERAL HOURS WHERE CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTENT THROUGH THE
EVENING...PROMPTING ONE SVR FOR ROCKBRIDGE DUE TO DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL. OVERALL...HOWEVER...THE MAIN CONCERN HAS BEEN SLOW
MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS...AND
CONSEQUENTLY COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN WHERE THE ACTIVITY OCCURS.
SEVERAL SPOTS...INCLUDING WILKES...ROCKBRIDGE...AND
BEDFORD/CAMPBELL HAVE SEEN 1.5 TO 2.5 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS
EVENING ACCORDING TO DUAL-POL PROMPTING LOCALIZED FLOOD
ADVISORIES. NO REPORTS OF ANY SPECIFIC PROBLEMS HOWEVER. TEMPS
WERE A LITTLE HIGH BASED ON CURRENT READINGS...SO ADJUSTED THEM
DOWNWARD. DEWPOINTS WERE REASONABLE NEEDING ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENT.

AS OF 250 PM EDT TUESDAY...

SHOTGUN PATTERN OF SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA CONTINUES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH LOCAL CONVERGENCE ZONES OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST PER MSAS MAKING
FOR A FEW CLUSTERS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL. HOWEVER INSTABILITY RATHER WEAK
WITH ANALYSIS SHOWING CAPES OF ONLY 500-1000 J/KG AND THIS COMBO WITH
DRIER AIR ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT DEEP CONVECTION FOR THE MOST PART INTO
THIS EVENING. STILL APPEARS POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN CONCERN SO
RUNNING WITH MOSTLY CHANCE POPS INTO THIS EVENING INCLUDING SPOTTY
LIKELY POPS IN THE VERY NEAR TERM WHERE COVERAGE REMAINS BEST.

EXPECT A GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET WITH RESIDUAL
OUTFLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PERHAPS KEEPING LINGERING COVERAGE
AROUND ESPCLY MOUNTAINS INTO LATE EVENING. OTRW WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND
LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD MAKE FOR A PERIOD OF LITTLE POP FROM LATE
EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE
NW APPROACHES LATE. GUIDANCE DIFFERING ON TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF THE
LEADING AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE BUT MOST SHOW SOME WEAK WESTERN SLOPE
CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY TOWARD DAYBREAK. THIS SUPPORTS RETURNING
CHANCE POPS OVER THE FAR WEST LATE BUT LITTLE OUT TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE
AND POINTS EAST. OTRW MAINLY PC WITH PATCHY FOG AROUND AGAIN AND LOWS
MOSTLY IN THE 60S.

NEXT MID LEVEL WAVE SLIDES EAST AND CROSSES THE REGION FROM THE WEST
UNDER THE NEXT PASSING 5H TROUGH WELL TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY. BEST
SUPPORT/DYNAMICS SLIPS TO THE NORTH WHILE A TRAILING VORT LOBE WORKS
EAST OF THE BLUE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. APPEARS BETTER INSTABILITY PER
MORE INSOLATION WOULD SUPPORT SOME SORT OF BROKEN BAND OF SHRA/TSRA
EITHER SLIDING ACROSS OR DEVELOPING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND MOVING
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH BETTER HEATING...TRENDING TOWARD THE
SLOWER 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH WOULD HAVE MOST COVERAGE JUST ARRIVING
IN THE WEST MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN ALONG AND EASTWARD FROM
THE BLUE RIDGE LATER IN THE DAY. HOWEVER WILL HOLD ON GOING ANY HIGHER
THAN DECENT CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY BUT PERHAPS
ENOUGH OF A MID LEVEL JET AND STRONG LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
SEVERE THREAT MAINLY NORTH/EAST. KEPT HIGHS CLOSER TO THE WARMER MAV
MOS EAST AND A BLEND OF THE MET/MAV AND 2M ECMWF VALUES WEST WHERE
LIKELY MORE CLOUDS/SHRA EARLIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT TUESDAY...

SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO EXIT TO THE EAST DURING THE EVENING AND
SHOULD ALLOW A MAINLY DRY NIGHT FOR THE REGION...ASIDE FROM MAYBE
SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE AIDED SHOWERS IN THE FAR WEST. MOST LIKELY
THIS WAVE WILL BE TAKING AN AREA OF ZONE OF SCATTERED CONVECTION
EAST OF THE FCST AREA BY EVENING...BUT LEFT SOME LOW CHANCE POPS
IN FAR EAST DURING THE EVENING IN CASE THIS SLOWS DOWN. TIMING
SUBTLE WAVES IS TRICKY AND MOST MODELS IMPLY ANOTHER WEAK ONE
COULD ARRIVE BY THURSDAY MORNING TO KEEP SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
AND MAYBE EVEN A THUNDERSTORM IN THE WEST. NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW
CONTINUE INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT SO DONT WANT TO RULE THAT OUT...BUT
MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE ARRIVES LATE IN THE DAY THURS TO EARLY
EVENING FOR MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD OR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION...MAINLY IN THE WEST BUT SOME ACTIVITY COULD SPREAD
INTO PIEDMONT DESPITE NW FLOW GIVEN UPPER SUPPORT. DONT SEE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT MUCH SEVERE THREAT REACHING INTO
AREA...UNLESS TIMING IS A LITTLE FASTER BUT COULD BE ORGANIZED
LINE OR BOW ECHO TYPE STRUCTURES COMING THROUGH OHIO VALLEY AND
INTO WV SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON. MORE CONCERNED ABOUT HEAVY
RAINFALLRATES AND SOME AREAS GETTING MORE THAN ONE ROUND OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH YET
TO CONSIDER ANY KIND OF HEADLINE FOR FLOOD POTENTIAL....WHICH
WOULD BE CONFINED TO WESTERN SLOPES OF APPALACHIANS.

FRIDAY COULD BE A REPEAT IN SOME REGARDS...BUT AT THIS POINT
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE NOT LOOKING AS POTENT...IF ANYTHING AT ALL.
STILL COULD BE DIURNAL CONVECTION...AGAIN MAINLY WEST WITH NW
FLOW. AS PATTERN AMPLIFIES...MORE LIKELY FRI NIGHT AND INTO
SAT...BACK DOOR FRONT COULD SNEAK DOWN FROM NORTHEAST...BUT LOOKS
LIKE THAT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL OVERNIGHT. THUS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURE
WARM AGAIN FOR FRIDAY BUT STILL UNDER GFS MOS DUE TO LIKELY LOTS
OF CLOUD COVER. TRENDING UP THOUGH FROM PREV FCST SINCE BACK DOOR
FRONT IS EXPECTED AFTER DAY TIME. MAY NOT BE QUITE AS WARM AS
THURSDAY THOUGH...WHERE HAVE LOWER 90S GOING IN EAST WITH MORE
SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPE. GOING CLOSER TO ECMWF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS
BOTH THURS AND FRIDAY AS GFS HAS MID 90S THURSDAY AND LOWER 90S
FRI IN PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY THE
BATTLE BETWEEN LARGE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST TRYING TO BUILD INTO
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...WHILE TROUGH OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST DEEPENS
WHILE CLOSING OFF AND CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT IT WILL SET UP CLOSE
ENOUGH TO COAST TO PUSH BACK DOOR FRONT THROUGH AND WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BEFORE LIKELY WEAKENING AND ALLOWING
MORE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE TO BE FELT BY TUES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA IF WEAK/SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER WEDGE IS IN
PLACE EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE MIXING OUT OVER THE EAST.  WHILE
SURFACE WEDGE FRONT MAY BE WELL TO THE SOUTH DURING MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD...WITH STRONGEST SOUTHWARD PUSH ON SATURDAY...THE 850
BOUNDARY AND MOST LIKELY TRACK FOR UPPER S/WV ENERGY FROM THE NW IS
LIKELY TO BE RIGHT OVER THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA...AND THUS GOOD
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD.  TIMING
MOST LIKELY WINDOWS REMAINS TRICKY...AS MANY OF THESE WAVES ARE
STRONGLY INFLUENCE BY CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES THAT WILL DEVELOP WELL
UPSTREAM. LIKE THE TRENDS OVERALL THAT 12Z GFS IS TAKING...NOT ONLY
WITH RETURN TO SHARPER AMPLITUDE PATTERN...BUT IDEA OF TWO DISTINCT
WAVES HEADING FOR THE WESTERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA...ONE
SATURDAY AND ANOTHER ONE SUNDAY. EXACT TIMES MAY HELP DETERMINE IF
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY...WHICH WOULD LIKELY BE LIMITED TO
THE FAR WEST NEAR EDGE OF WEDGE BOUNDARY...BUT PERHAPS THE BIGGER
CONCERN IS RAINFALL THAT IS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE SAME AREAS AT LEAST
A COUPLE OF DAYS IN A ROW.

THERE COULD BE ANOTHER WAVE FOR MONDAY...BUT AS RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD IN AND TROUGH TO THE EAST AND ASSOCIATED WEDGE WEAKEN WHAT MAY
TEND TO OCCUR IS MORE DIURNAL POP-UP CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE BOUNDARY IN OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA
AS THE ATMOS DESTABILIZES MORE. BY TUESDAY THE SUPPORT TO KEEP WEDGE
IN PLACE SHOULD BE WEAKENING AS TROUGH LIFTS AND SFC HIGH SHIFTS
MORE EAST OF THE AREA...AND OVERALL IT LOOKS A LITTLE DRIER...BUT
NOT SURE ALL POPS CAN BE REMOVED.

GIVEN PATTERN WE`VE BEEN IN...REALLY DON`T HAVE CONFIDENCE TO DRY IT
OUT OR WARM IT UP TOO FAST...SO WILL LEAN TOWARD STRONGER INFLUENCE
OF THE WEDGE THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIP...WHICH WILL HELP STRENGTHEN THE WEDGE TOO.  UNDERCUT EVEN
COOLER ECMWF A LITTLE BIT FOR HIGHS...WITH A BIT MORE WARMING FOR
TUESDAY. BUT IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST THINGS MAY BE ABLE TO WARM UP VERY
QUICKLY A DAY OR TWO EARLIER THAN THIS IF THE WEDGE CAN BREAK AND
SOME OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE BIG UPPER RIDGE CAN BE REALIZED.  THIS
WILL EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP FOR OUR ENTIRE
AREA...BUT AM THINKING IT WILL NOT COME UNTIL MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM EDT TUESDAY...

STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT AS CLOSED UPPER
LOW SLOWLY WORKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND A STALLED
FRONT MEANDERS IN OUR VICINITY AT THE SURFACE. ANOTHER PULSE OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW AND WILL INTERACT
WITH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. RADAR DISPLAYING A FEW STRONG CELLS OVER THE
ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS AND NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS AT 7P/23Z. THESE
STORMS ARE TRACKING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE ALLEGHANY
HIGHLAND STORM IS TRACKING TOWARDS KLYH AND COULD IMPACT TRAFFIC
AFTER 9P/1Z FOR A FEW HOURS. IF THIS RAIN DOES MAKE IT TO LYH THIS
EVENING...OVERNIGHT LIFR FOG/LOW CLOUDS LIKELY. ELSEWHERE...CLOUDS
ARE THINNING THIS EVENING BUT WILL OVER TAKE THE AREA THROUGH THE
NIGHT. KEPT MAJORITY OF THE CEILINGS VFR OVERNIGHT BUT WITH A
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...ADDED MVFR CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG TOWARDS DAY
BREAK. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY HANG AROUND INTO MID MORNING THEN
LIFT TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON. WITH MORE SUN...INSTABILITIES WILL
INCREASE WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST 6-10KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION... AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
UNSETTLED AND VARIABLE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE PATTERN
REMAINS SLUGGISH WITH WAVES OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH WITH A LOT OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THERE WILL BE A DIURNAL FLAVOR TO THINGS
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AT NIGHT WITH IFR/LIFR THEN SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCE FOR VFR WILL BE LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON AFTER FOG/LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF AND
BEFORE CONVECTION BEGINS. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR POSSIBILITY
OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING UPSTREAM AND AFFECTING TAF SITES AT
NIGHT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF/SK
NEAR TERM...JH/RAB
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...MBS/RCS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 200216
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1016 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACKING EAST AND SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE BOUNDARY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
REGION EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1000 PM EDT TUESDAY...

SEVERAL HOURS WHERE CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTENT THROUGH THE
EVENING...PROMPTING ONE SVR FOR ROCKBRIDGE DUE TO DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL. OVERALL...HOWEVER...THE MAIN CONCERN HAS BEEN SLOW
MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS...AND
CONSEQUENTLY COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN WHERE THE ACTIVITY OCCURS.
SEVERAL SPOTS...INCLUDING WILKES...ROCKBRIDGE...AND
BEDFORD/CAMPBELL HAVE SEEN 1.5 TO 2.5 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS
EVENING ACCORDING TO DUAL-POL PROMPTING LOCALIZED FLOOD
ADVISORIES. NO REPORTS OF ANY SPECIFIC PROBLEMS HOWEVER. TEMPS
WERE A LITTLE HIGH BASED ON CURRENT READINGS...SO ADJUSTED THEM
DOWNWARD. DEWPOINTS WERE REASONABLE NEEDING ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENT.

AS OF 250 PM EDT TUESDAY...

SHOTGUN PATTERN OF SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA CONTINUES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH LOCAL CONVERGENCE ZONES OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST PER MSAS MAKING
FOR A FEW CLUSTERS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL. HOWEVER INSTABILITY RATHER WEAK
WITH ANALYSIS SHOWING CAPES OF ONLY 500-1000 J/KG AND THIS COMBO WITH
DRIER AIR ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT DEEP CONVECTION FOR THE MOST PART INTO
THIS EVENING. STILL APPEARS POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN CONCERN SO
RUNNING WITH MOSTLY CHANCE POPS INTO THIS EVENING INCLUDING SPOTTY
LIKELY POPS IN THE VERY NEAR TERM WHERE COVERAGE REMAINS BEST.

EXPECT A GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET WITH RESIDUAL
OUTFLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PERHAPS KEEPING LINGERING COVERAGE
AROUND ESPCLY MOUNTAINS INTO LATE EVENING. OTRW WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND
LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD MAKE FOR A PERIOD OF LITTLE POP FROM LATE
EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE
NW APPROACHES LATE. GUIDANCE DIFFERING ON TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF THE
LEADING AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE BUT MOST SHOW SOME WEAK WESTERN SLOPE
CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY TOWARD DAYBREAK. THIS SUPPORTS RETURNING
CHANCE POPS OVER THE FAR WEST LATE BUT LITTLE OUT TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE
AND POINTS EAST. OTRW MAINLY PC WITH PATCHY FOG AROUND AGAIN AND LOWS
MOSTLY IN THE 60S.

NEXT MID LEVEL WAVE SLIDES EAST AND CROSSES THE REGION FROM THE WEST
UNDER THE NEXT PASSING 5H TROUGH WELL TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY. BEST
SUPPORT/DYNAMICS SLIPS TO THE NORTH WHILE A TRAILING VORT LOBE WORKS
EAST OF THE BLUE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. APPEARS BETTER INSTABILITY PER
MORE INSOLATION WOULD SUPPORT SOME SORT OF BROKEN BAND OF SHRA/TSRA
EITHER SLIDING ACROSS OR DEVELOPING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND MOVING
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH BETTER HEATING...TRENDING TOWARD THE
SLOWER 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH WOULD HAVE MOST COVERAGE JUST ARRIVING
IN THE WEST MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN ALONG AND EASTWARD FROM
THE BLUE RIDGE LATER IN THE DAY. HOWEVER WILL HOLD ON GOING ANY HIGHER
THAN DECENT CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY BUT PERHAPS
ENOUGH OF A MID LEVEL JET AND STRONG LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
SEVERE THREAT MAINLY NORTH/EAST. KEPT HIGHS CLOSER TO THE WARMER MAV
MOS EAST AND A BLEND OF THE MET/MAV AND 2M ECMWF VALUES WEST WHERE
LIKELY MORE CLOUDS/SHRA EARLIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT TUESDAY...

SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO EXIT TO THE EAST DURING THE EVENING AND
SHOULD ALLOW A MAINLY DRY NIGHT FOR THE REGION...ASIDE FROM MAYBE
SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE AIDED SHOWERS IN THE FAR WEST. MOST LIKELY
THIS WAVE WILL BE TAKING AN AREA OF ZONE OF SCATTERED CONVECTION
EAST OF THE FCST AREA BY EVENING...BUT LEFT SOME LOW CHANCE POPS
IN FAR EAST DURING THE EVENING IN CASE THIS SLOWS DOWN. TIMING
SUBTLE WAVES IS TRICKY AND MOST MODELS IMPLY ANOTHER WEAK ONE
COULD ARRIVE BY THURSDAY MORNING TO KEEP SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
AND MAYBE EVEN A THUNDERSTORM IN THE WEST. NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW
CONTINUE INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT SO DONT WANT TO RULE THAT OUT...BUT
MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE ARRIVES LATE IN THE DAY THURS TO EARLY
EVENING FOR MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD OR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION...MAINLY IN THE WEST BUT SOME ACTIVITY COULD SPREAD
INTO PIEDMONT DESPITE NW FLOW GIVEN UPPER SUPPORT. DONT SEE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT MUCH SEVERE THREAT REACHING INTO
AREA...UNLESS TIMING IS A LITTLE FASTER BUT COULD BE ORGANIZED
LINE OR BOW ECHO TYPE STRUCTURES COMING THROUGH OHIO VALLEY AND
INTO WV SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON. MORE CONCERNED ABOUT HEAVY
RAINFALLRATES AND SOME AREAS GETTING MORE THAN ONE ROUND OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH YET
TO CONSIDER ANY KIND OF HEADLINE FOR FLOOD POTENTIAL....WHICH
WOULD BE CONFINED TO WESTERN SLOPES OF APPALACHIANS.

FRIDAY COULD BE A REPEAT IN SOME REGARDS...BUT AT THIS POINT
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE NOT LOOKING AS POTENT...IF ANYTHING AT ALL.
STILL COULD BE DIURNAL CONVECTION...AGAIN MAINLY WEST WITH NW
FLOW. AS PATTERN AMPLIFIES...MORE LIKELY FRI NIGHT AND INTO
SAT...BACK DOOR FRONT COULD SNEAK DOWN FROM NORTHEAST...BUT LOOKS
LIKE THAT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL OVERNIGHT. THUS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURE
WARM AGAIN FOR FRIDAY BUT STILL UNDER GFS MOS DUE TO LIKELY LOTS
OF CLOUD COVER. TRENDING UP THOUGH FROM PREV FCST SINCE BACK DOOR
FRONT IS EXPECTED AFTER DAY TIME. MAY NOT BE QUITE AS WARM AS
THURSDAY THOUGH...WHERE HAVE LOWER 90S GOING IN EAST WITH MORE
SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPE. GOING CLOSER TO ECMWF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS
BOTH THURS AND FRIDAY AS GFS HAS MID 90S THURSDAY AND LOWER 90S
FRI IN PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY THE
BATTLE BETWEEN LARGE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST TRYING TO BUILD INTO
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...WHILE TROUGH OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST DEEPENS
WHILE CLOSING OFF AND CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT IT WILL SET UP CLOSE
ENOUGH TO COAST TO PUSH BACK DOOR FRONT THROUGH AND WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BEFORE LIKELY WEAKENING AND ALLOWING
MORE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE TO BE FELT BY TUES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA IF WEAK/SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER WEDGE IS IN
PLACE EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE MIXING OUT OVER THE EAST.  WHILE
SURFACE WEDGE FRONT MAY BE WELL TO THE SOUTH DURING MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD...WITH STRONGEST SOUTHWARD PUSH ON SATURDAY...THE 850
BOUNDARY AND MOST LIKELY TRACK FOR UPPER S/WV ENERGY FROM THE NW IS
LIKELY TO BE RIGHT OVER THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA...AND THUS GOOD
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD.  TIMING
MOST LIKELY WINDOWS REMAINS TRICKY...AS MANY OF THESE WAVES ARE
STRONGLY INFLUENCE BY CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES THAT WILL DEVELOP WELL
UPSTREAM. LIKE THE TRENDS OVERALL THAT 12Z GFS IS TAKING...NOT ONLY
WITH RETURN TO SHARPER AMPLITUDE PATTERN...BUT IDEA OF TWO DISTINCT
WAVES HEADING FOR THE WESTERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA...ONE
SATURDAY AND ANOTHER ONE SUNDAY. EXACT TIMES MAY HELP DETERMINE IF
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY...WHICH WOULD LIKELY BE LIMITED TO
THE FAR WEST NEAR EDGE OF WEDGE BOUNDARY...BUT PERHAPS THE BIGGER
CONCERN IS RAINFALL THAT IS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE SAME AREAS AT LEAST
A COUPLE OF DAYS IN A ROW.

THERE COULD BE ANOTHER WAVE FOR MONDAY...BUT AS RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD IN AND TROUGH TO THE EAST AND ASSOCIATED WEDGE WEAKEN WHAT MAY
TEND TO OCCUR IS MORE DIURNAL POP-UP CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE BOUNDARY IN OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA
AS THE ATMOS DESTABILIZES MORE. BY TUESDAY THE SUPPORT TO KEEP WEDGE
IN PLACE SHOULD BE WEAKENING AS TROUGH LIFTS AND SFC HIGH SHIFTS
MORE EAST OF THE AREA...AND OVERALL IT LOOKS A LITTLE DRIER...BUT
NOT SURE ALL POPS CAN BE REMOVED.

GIVEN PATTERN WE`VE BEEN IN...REALLY DON`T HAVE CONFIDENCE TO DRY IT
OUT OR WARM IT UP TOO FAST...SO WILL LEAN TOWARD STRONGER INFLUENCE
OF THE WEDGE THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIP...WHICH WILL HELP STRENGTHEN THE WEDGE TOO.  UNDERCUT EVEN
COOLER ECMWF A LITTLE BIT FOR HIGHS...WITH A BIT MORE WARMING FOR
TUESDAY. BUT IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST THINGS MAY BE ABLE TO WARM UP VERY
QUICKLY A DAY OR TWO EARLIER THAN THIS IF THE WEDGE CAN BREAK AND
SOME OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE BIG UPPER RIDGE CAN BE REALIZED.  THIS
WILL EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP FOR OUR ENTIRE
AREA...BUT AM THINKING IT WILL NOT COME UNTIL MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM EDT TUESDAY...

STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT AS CLOSED UPPER
LOW SLOWLY WORKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND A STALLED
FRONT MEANDERS IN OUR VICINITY AT THE SURFACE. ANOTHER PULSE OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW AND WILL INTERACT
WITH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. RADAR DISPLAYING A FEW STRONG CELLS OVER THE
ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS AND NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS AT 7P/23Z. THESE
STORMS ARE TRACKING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE ALLEGHANY
HIGHLAND STORM IS TRACKING TOWARDS KLYH AND COULD IMPACT TRAFFIC
AFTER 9P/1Z FOR A FEW HOURS. IF THIS RAIN DOES MAKE IT TO LYH THIS
EVENING...OVERNIGHT LIFR FOG/LOW CLOUDS LIKELY. ELSEWHERE...CLOUDS
ARE THINNING THIS EVENING BUT WILL OVER TAKE THE AREA THROUGH THE
NIGHT. KEPT MAJORITY OF THE CEILINGS VFR OVERNIGHT BUT WITH A
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...ADDED MVFR CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG TOWARDS DAY
BREAK. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY HANG AROUND INTO MID MORNING THEN
LIFT TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON. WITH MORE SUN...INSTABILITIES WILL
INCREASE WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST 6-10KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION... AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
UNSETTLED AND VARIABLE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE PATTERN
REMAINS SLUGGISH WITH WAVES OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH WITH A LOT OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THERE WILL BE A DIURNAL FLAVOR TO THINGS
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AT NIGHT WITH IFR/LIFR THEN SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCE FOR VFR WILL BE LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON AFTER FOG/LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF AND
BEFORE CONVECTION BEGINS. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR POSSIBILITY
OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING UPSTREAM AND AFFECTING TAF SITES AT
NIGHT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF/SK
NEAR TERM...JH/RAB
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...MBS/RCS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 200135
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
935 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT...WHILE A WEAK FRONT SLOWLY SINKS SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN
VA. THE FRONT RETURNS AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...AND REMAINS
STALLED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE FLOW OFF
THE WATER AND IN THE WEST AS A FEW SHOWERS DROP SOUTHEAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
OVERNIGHT WILL BE ISOLATED. HAVE ALSO ADDED A MENTION OF SOME
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST FOR A BRIEF PERIOD FROM 07Z-
10Z. FOG SHOULD NOT BECOME DENSE AND WIDESPREAD VSBYS WILL LIKELY
NOT DROP LOWER THAN 2 MILES THOUGH A FEW PATCHY SPOTS COULD DROP
TO 1 MILES OR LESS ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHICH HAVE RECEIVED A LOT OF RAIN
OVER THE LAST 36 HOURS.

THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE VA CAPES CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST AND WINDS HAVE INCREASED ALONG THE
COAST WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND WIND
FIELDS THE WEAK FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST NC THEN
EXTENDS NW TO NEAR LAKE GASTON. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
A FEW MORE DEGREES THAN LAST NIGHT WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S IN NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND LOW 70S SOUTH.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO DIG
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL FORCE THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA TO LIFT
BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. WITH SOME DAYTIME HEATING AND THE
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL AROUND...SHOULD SEE SOME
AFTERNOON TO EVENING CONVECTION FORM IN THE PIEDMONT AND THEN HEAD
EASTWARD WITH THE WARM FRONT. THE 12Z NAM IS MORE EXCITED AND MUCH
MORE LIFT THAN THE GFS OR ECMWF. THE MODELS TEND TO AGREE ON AREAS
ACROSS NORTHERN VA FOR RAIN BUT NOT AS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH SO HAVE
TAPERED POPS A BIT LOWER IN THE SOUTH. FOR TEMPERATURES HAVE
LEANED TOWARD THE MET NUMBERS AS THE MAV HAVE BEEN TOO WARM...BUT
SHOULD SEE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH MORE SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE OVERALL PATTERN IS AGREED UPON IN THE MID RANGE PART OF THE
FORECAST AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SLIDES INTO THE
EAST AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MS VALLEY BUILDS
NORTHWARD...SETTING UP NW OVER OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
HOWEVER...BEYOND THE THAT...THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MAKES THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION
VERY UNCERTAIN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE IN THE VICINITY SHOULD BE SOME
STATIONARY AND PARALLEL TO THE FLOW ALOFT AND COULD ALSO BE A
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. AT THIS POINT...WITH THE UNCERTAINTY...LEANED
MORE TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE PIEDMONT EARLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND THEN AREA WIDE IN LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. SUCCEEDING MODEL RUNS WILL HOPEFULLY IMPROVE THE
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL WAVES AND COMPLEXES.

FOR TEMPERATURES...CONTINUED A SLOW WARMING TREND FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT DID NOT GO AS WARM AS THE MAV NUMBERS...LEANING
TOWARD THE MET NUMBERS WHICH LEANED TOWARD THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S ON THURSDAY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER ON FRIDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS
POSSIBLE. FOR LOWS HAVE LEANED WARM THAN GUIDANCE THINKING MORE
CLOUDS AROUND AND A MORE HUMID AIR MASS LIMITING THE COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN NWLY
FLOW ALOFT...BUT DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE...LATE SUMMER NORMS TO BEGIN THE
EXTENDED BEFORE RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW DURING THE EXTENDED IS HIGHLIGHTED BY SPLIT/BLOCKY
FLOW OFF THE ERN CANADA AND NERN US COAST AND AMPLIFYING HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SRN CONUS. THIS PLACES THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION IN
NWLY FLOW ALOFT. ASSOCIATED BACK DOOR FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA SATURDAY MORNING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED OVER THE NE
WILL RIDGE SWWD ALONG THE COAST AND INTO CNTRL VA. NLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW INDICATED IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WILL DRIVE DEWPOINTS
DOWNWARD INTO THE MID 60S. HOWEVER...MODEL DERIVED PWATS REMAIN
AROUND 1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES. COMBINED WITH PERTURBATIONS IN THE NWLY
FLOW...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE MCS
DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM...ROUNDING THE RIDGE AND DROPPING INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT THRU THE WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED
TO LOCATE OFF THE COAST. BLOCK WILL REMAIN OFF THE NE COAST...BUT
MOISTURE FEED WILL BE CUT OFF. DECREASING MOISTURE AND INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM...SO WILL LEAVE POPS SILENT.

NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THICKNESSES AND GUIDANCE YIELD TEMPS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S THRU MONDAY (AROUND -1 STD DEV). OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S NEAR THE WATER. WARMING BACK
UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH BEHIND
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES IN A W/NW
FLOW WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MOIST
GROUND AND LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL MAINTAIN THE CHC FOR ISSUES
WITH CIG/VSBY EACH MORNING.

AS OF 00Z...NE WINDS PREVAILED AT THE TAF SITES WITH NO PCPN
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SKY CONDITIONS WILL BE VARIABLE WITH GRADUAL
LOWERING OF CIGS AND VSBYS. THE MAIN LIMITATION IS INDICATED TO BE
CIGS BUT VSBYS ARE NOT OFF THE TABLE. USED THE RESULTS OF THE
PREVIOUS OVERNIGHT AS A PARTIAL GUIDE AND A MIX OF MOS GUIDANCE TO
MAKE A PLAN FOR THE CURRENT TAF. DESPITE ECG HAVING THE CLOSEST T/TD
SPREAD...EXPERIENCE FROM THIS MORNING WOULD INDICATE THEY WILL NOT
GO DOWN TO IFR FOR A WHILE (I.E. AROUND 12Z) AND MAY HAVE NO LOWER
THAN MVFR. HAVE RIC/PHF WITH SOME PERIODS OF IFR. SBY MOS IS BIASED
BY TEMPERATURES THAT ARE TOO LOW. KEPT ORF OUT OF IFR DUE TO
CLIMATOLOGY.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR BY AROUND 14-15Z. ON WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL
BE A CHC FOR LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS...ESPECIALLY NORTH PORTIONS.
WINDS VEER TOWARD E/SE.

OUTLOOK...CHC FOR AFTN TSTMS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME
MVFR/IFR PSBL NEAR SUNRISE EACH MORNING. CURRENT FORECAST IS DRY ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE
HAS JUST LOCATED OFF THE VA CAPES THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING WWD OVER SRN VA. GENERALLY ONSHORE FLOW 10-15 KT
OVER THE WATERS...NORTH OF THE LOW. SEAS HAVE ALSO BUILT TO 3-4 FT
IN THE NRN WATERS. WAVES GENERALLY 1-2 FT. LOW PRESSURE PUSHES
SLOWLY OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVER THE NRN
WATERS. LOW PRESSURE REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK
AS A WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER NEW ENGLAND...RIDGING SWD OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THE RESULT WILL
BE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW...AVG AROUND 10 KT. SEAS REMAIN 2-3 FT.
BY THE WEEKEND...THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH NELY WINDS INCREASING TO
10-15 KT. WILL PUSH SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS TO 3-4 FT...WITH 5 FT
POSSIBLE 20NM OUT. FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE WATERS SAT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS
NEAR TERM...ESS/JAO
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 200135
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
935 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT...WHILE A WEAK FRONT SLOWLY SINKS SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN
VA. THE FRONT RETURNS AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...AND REMAINS
STALLED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE FLOW OFF
THE WATER AND IN THE WEST AS A FEW SHOWERS DROP SOUTHEAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
OVERNIGHT WILL BE ISOLATED. HAVE ALSO ADDED A MENTION OF SOME
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST FOR A BRIEF PERIOD FROM 07Z-
10Z. FOG SHOULD NOT BECOME DENSE AND WIDESPREAD VSBYS WILL LIKELY
NOT DROP LOWER THAN 2 MILES THOUGH A FEW PATCHY SPOTS COULD DROP
TO 1 MILES OR LESS ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHICH HAVE RECEIVED A LOT OF RAIN
OVER THE LAST 36 HOURS.

THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE VA CAPES CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST AND WINDS HAVE INCREASED ALONG THE
COAST WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND WIND
FIELDS THE WEAK FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST NC THEN
EXTENDS NW TO NEAR LAKE GASTON. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
A FEW MORE DEGREES THAN LAST NIGHT WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S IN NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND LOW 70S SOUTH.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO DIG
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL FORCE THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA TO LIFT
BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. WITH SOME DAYTIME HEATING AND THE
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL AROUND...SHOULD SEE SOME
AFTERNOON TO EVENING CONVECTION FORM IN THE PIEDMONT AND THEN HEAD
EASTWARD WITH THE WARM FRONT. THE 12Z NAM IS MORE EXCITED AND MUCH
MORE LIFT THAN THE GFS OR ECMWF. THE MODELS TEND TO AGREE ON AREAS
ACROSS NORTHERN VA FOR RAIN BUT NOT AS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH SO HAVE
TAPERED POPS A BIT LOWER IN THE SOUTH. FOR TEMPERATURES HAVE
LEANED TOWARD THE MET NUMBERS AS THE MAV HAVE BEEN TOO WARM...BUT
SHOULD SEE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH MORE SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE OVERALL PATTERN IS AGREED UPON IN THE MID RANGE PART OF THE
FORECAST AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SLIDES INTO THE
EAST AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MS VALLEY BUILDS
NORTHWARD...SETTING UP NW OVER OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
HOWEVER...BEYOND THE THAT...THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MAKES THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION
VERY UNCERTAIN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE IN THE VICINITY SHOULD BE SOME
STATIONARY AND PARALLEL TO THE FLOW ALOFT AND COULD ALSO BE A
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. AT THIS POINT...WITH THE UNCERTAINTY...LEANED
MORE TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE PIEDMONT EARLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND THEN AREA WIDE IN LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. SUCCEEDING MODEL RUNS WILL HOPEFULLY IMPROVE THE
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL WAVES AND COMPLEXES.

FOR TEMPERATURES...CONTINUED A SLOW WARMING TREND FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT DID NOT GO AS WARM AS THE MAV NUMBERS...LEANING
TOWARD THE MET NUMBERS WHICH LEANED TOWARD THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S ON THURSDAY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER ON FRIDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS
POSSIBLE. FOR LOWS HAVE LEANED WARM THAN GUIDANCE THINKING MORE
CLOUDS AROUND AND A MORE HUMID AIR MASS LIMITING THE COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN NWLY
FLOW ALOFT...BUT DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE...LATE SUMMER NORMS TO BEGIN THE
EXTENDED BEFORE RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW DURING THE EXTENDED IS HIGHLIGHTED BY SPLIT/BLOCKY
FLOW OFF THE ERN CANADA AND NERN US COAST AND AMPLIFYING HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SRN CONUS. THIS PLACES THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION IN
NWLY FLOW ALOFT. ASSOCIATED BACK DOOR FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA SATURDAY MORNING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED OVER THE NE
WILL RIDGE SWWD ALONG THE COAST AND INTO CNTRL VA. NLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW INDICATED IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WILL DRIVE DEWPOINTS
DOWNWARD INTO THE MID 60S. HOWEVER...MODEL DERIVED PWATS REMAIN
AROUND 1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES. COMBINED WITH PERTURBATIONS IN THE NWLY
FLOW...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE MCS
DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM...ROUNDING THE RIDGE AND DROPPING INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT THRU THE WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED
TO LOCATE OFF THE COAST. BLOCK WILL REMAIN OFF THE NE COAST...BUT
MOISTURE FEED WILL BE CUT OFF. DECREASING MOISTURE AND INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM...SO WILL LEAVE POPS SILENT.

NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THICKNESSES AND GUIDANCE YIELD TEMPS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S THRU MONDAY (AROUND -1 STD DEV). OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S NEAR THE WATER. WARMING BACK
UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH BEHIND
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES IN A W/NW
FLOW WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MOIST
GROUND AND LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL MAINTAIN THE CHC FOR ISSUES
WITH CIG/VSBY EACH MORNING.

AS OF 00Z...NE WINDS PREVAILED AT THE TAF SITES WITH NO PCPN
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SKY CONDITIONS WILL BE VARIABLE WITH GRADUAL
LOWERING OF CIGS AND VSBYS. THE MAIN LIMITATION IS INDICATED TO BE
CIGS BUT VSBYS ARE NOT OFF THE TABLE. USED THE RESULTS OF THE
PREVIOUS OVERNIGHT AS A PARTIAL GUIDE AND A MIX OF MOS GUIDANCE TO
MAKE A PLAN FOR THE CURRENT TAF. DESPITE ECG HAVING THE CLOSEST T/TD
SPREAD...EXPERIENCE FROM THIS MORNING WOULD INDICATE THEY WILL NOT
GO DOWN TO IFR FOR A WHILE (I.E. AROUND 12Z) AND MAY HAVE NO LOWER
THAN MVFR. HAVE RIC/PHF WITH SOME PERIODS OF IFR. SBY MOS IS BIASED
BY TEMPERATURES THAT ARE TOO LOW. KEPT ORF OUT OF IFR DUE TO
CLIMATOLOGY.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR BY AROUND 14-15Z. ON WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL
BE A CHC FOR LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS...ESPECIALLY NORTH PORTIONS.
WINDS VEER TOWARD E/SE.

OUTLOOK...CHC FOR AFTN TSTMS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME
MVFR/IFR PSBL NEAR SUNRISE EACH MORNING. CURRENT FORECAST IS DRY ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE
HAS JUST LOCATED OFF THE VA CAPES THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING WWD OVER SRN VA. GENERALLY ONSHORE FLOW 10-15 KT
OVER THE WATERS...NORTH OF THE LOW. SEAS HAVE ALSO BUILT TO 3-4 FT
IN THE NRN WATERS. WAVES GENERALLY 1-2 FT. LOW PRESSURE PUSHES
SLOWLY OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVER THE NRN
WATERS. LOW PRESSURE REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK
AS A WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER NEW ENGLAND...RIDGING SWD OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THE RESULT WILL
BE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW...AVG AROUND 10 KT. SEAS REMAIN 2-3 FT.
BY THE WEEKEND...THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH NELY WINDS INCREASING TO
10-15 KT. WILL PUSH SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS TO 3-4 FT...WITH 5 FT
POSSIBLE 20NM OUT. FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE WATERS SAT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS
NEAR TERM...ESS/JAO
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM







000
FXUS61 KLWX 200132
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
932 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST FROM NORTHEASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST FRIDAY WITH MORE ONSHORE FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 01Z...1009MB SFC LOW IS OFFSHORE FROM THE VA/NC BORDER AND
DRIFTING EAST. A LIGHT ONSHORE/SELY FLOW IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MID-ATLANTIC. UPSTREAM...A SHORTWAVE IS MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
MIDWEST STATES WITH AN MCS PUSHING EAST OVER LAKE ERIE (CURRENTLY
NEAR CLEVELAND).

WILL NEED TO MONITOR DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SOUTHERN END OF THE MCS
(CURRENTLY OVER COLUMBUS)...FOR DOWNSTREAM AREAS LIKE CUMBERLAND
MD OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE LOW IS OCCLUDED AND EASTWARD PROGRESS
SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED. THE 22Z HRRR SUGGEST A SUPPLEMENTAL
VORT LOBE SHIFTS ACTIVITY EAST INTO NWRN PARTS OF THE CWA
WEDNESDAY MORNING. TOOK THIS APPROACH IN THE GRIDS WITH CHANCE
POPS ENTERING THE NORTHWEST AFTER 6 AM.

SHEAR INCREASES OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE LOW THAT WILL
CONTINUE DRIFTING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. TIMING OF VORT
MAX/TROUGH PASSAGE EAST FROM THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY SHOULD BE
CLOSE TO PRIME DIURNAL HEATING...SO MORE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THAN
RECENT DAYS. HOWEVER...THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT
STORMS EAST FROM THE BLUE RIDGE. MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS FOR LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FOR NRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY WEST
OF I-95. MAX TEMPS MID TO UPR 80S DEPENDING ON MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER CLEARING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
SHOWERS MAY LINGER EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO THURSDAY. NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW A UPPER LOW TO APPROACH THE REGION AND MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS THE EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL JET APPROACHES. SFC FLOW IS LIGHT AND WESTERLY WHICH WILL
KEEP DEWPTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S THURSDAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE
BASED ON CLOUD COVER WHICH IS HARD TO SAY RIGHT NOW BUT THE MORE
BREAKS THE GREATER THE INSTABILITY. MARGINAL SHEAR OF 25 KTS IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...SVR STORM POTENTIAL IS LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW RIDING AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF A DEVELOPING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CROSS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. MANY LOCATIONS...PARTICULARLY IN MARYLAND...COULD SEE
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE NIGHT
THURSDAY. THE COLLOCATION OF ENHANCED LIFT FROM THE LEFT EXIT REGION
OF A JET STREAK ROUNDING THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS A STALLED BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE
WILL FURTHER ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA.
OVERALL HAVE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS MARYLAND WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A COASTAL LOW FORMS OFF OF CAPE
HATTERAS. WITH MODEST MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURRING IN THE LOW AND
MID LEVELS...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
FRIDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
OVERALL RAINFALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS FRIDAY
EVENING THAN THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE AREA BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL WORK WITH THE LOW PARKED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TO BRING
ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE AREA. THIS MARINE AIRMASS WILL KEEP MOST OF
THE AREA...PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...CLOUDY HUMID AND
COOL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LIKELY INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY WITH THIS AIRMASS...BUT ISOLATED LIGHT
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MOSTLY SATURDAY...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS WHERE
THERE IS AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW. EXPECT MORE BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...THOUGH LIGHT RAIN REMAINS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THERE AS WELL.

HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN THE EAST COAST WILL WEAKEN EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL LIKELY
SIGNAL THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TEMPERATURES BECOMING MORE
SEASONABLE. OVERALL THE COOLER THAN NORMAL TREND OF THE SUMMER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S AS
THE COOL MARINE AIRMASS COVERS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY.
TUESDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AS WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
BEGINS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES AND MVFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT.
IFR CIGS/VSBYS MOST LIKELY AT CHO AND MRB WEDNESDAY MORNING. A
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND SHRA AND VCTS
ARE POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...THREAT OF TS IS LOW AND THEREFORE NOT
IN THE TAFS. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THURSDAY AND SHRA AND
TSRA IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MARINE AIRMASS SETTLES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY AND WILL STAY BELOW
SCA CRITERIA. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OCCURRENCE OF ANY MARINE HAZARDS THROUGH
THE LONG TERM.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT IT WILL REMAIN
WEAK. TIDAL ANOMALIES AROUND ONE-HALF FOOT ABOVE NORMAL WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. WATER LEVELS WILL BE CLOSE TO MINOR
FLOODING THRESHOLDS DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE LATE TONIGHT BUT
EXPECTATION IS THAT WATER LEVELS WILL REMAIN BELOW MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS SINCE THE ONSHORE FLOW IS WEAK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/HAS
NEAR TERM...BAJ
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...BAJ/HAS/CEB
MARINE...BAJ/HAS/CEB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX







000
FXUS61 KLWX 200132
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
932 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST FROM NORTHEASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST FRIDAY WITH MORE ONSHORE FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 01Z...1009MB SFC LOW IS OFFSHORE FROM THE VA/NC BORDER AND
DRIFTING EAST. A LIGHT ONSHORE/SELY FLOW IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MID-ATLANTIC. UPSTREAM...A SHORTWAVE IS MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
MIDWEST STATES WITH AN MCS PUSHING EAST OVER LAKE ERIE (CURRENTLY
NEAR CLEVELAND).

WILL NEED TO MONITOR DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SOUTHERN END OF THE MCS
(CURRENTLY OVER COLUMBUS)...FOR DOWNSTREAM AREAS LIKE CUMBERLAND
MD OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE LOW IS OCCLUDED AND EASTWARD PROGRESS
SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED. THE 22Z HRRR SUGGEST A SUPPLEMENTAL
VORT LOBE SHIFTS ACTIVITY EAST INTO NWRN PARTS OF THE CWA
WEDNESDAY MORNING. TOOK THIS APPROACH IN THE GRIDS WITH CHANCE
POPS ENTERING THE NORTHWEST AFTER 6 AM.

SHEAR INCREASES OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE LOW THAT WILL
CONTINUE DRIFTING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. TIMING OF VORT
MAX/TROUGH PASSAGE EAST FROM THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY SHOULD BE
CLOSE TO PRIME DIURNAL HEATING...SO MORE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THAN
RECENT DAYS. HOWEVER...THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT
STORMS EAST FROM THE BLUE RIDGE. MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS FOR LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FOR NRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY WEST
OF I-95. MAX TEMPS MID TO UPR 80S DEPENDING ON MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER CLEARING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
SHOWERS MAY LINGER EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO THURSDAY. NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW A UPPER LOW TO APPROACH THE REGION AND MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS THE EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL JET APPROACHES. SFC FLOW IS LIGHT AND WESTERLY WHICH WILL
KEEP DEWPTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S THURSDAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE
BASED ON CLOUD COVER WHICH IS HARD TO SAY RIGHT NOW BUT THE MORE
BREAKS THE GREATER THE INSTABILITY. MARGINAL SHEAR OF 25 KTS IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...SVR STORM POTENTIAL IS LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW RIDING AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF A DEVELOPING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CROSS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. MANY LOCATIONS...PARTICULARLY IN MARYLAND...COULD SEE
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE NIGHT
THURSDAY. THE COLLOCATION OF ENHANCED LIFT FROM THE LEFT EXIT REGION
OF A JET STREAK ROUNDING THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS A STALLED BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE
WILL FURTHER ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA.
OVERALL HAVE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS MARYLAND WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A COASTAL LOW FORMS OFF OF CAPE
HATTERAS. WITH MODEST MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURRING IN THE LOW AND
MID LEVELS...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
FRIDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
OVERALL RAINFALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS FRIDAY
EVENING THAN THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE AREA BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL WORK WITH THE LOW PARKED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TO BRING
ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE AREA. THIS MARINE AIRMASS WILL KEEP MOST OF
THE AREA...PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...CLOUDY HUMID AND
COOL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LIKELY INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY WITH THIS AIRMASS...BUT ISOLATED LIGHT
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MOSTLY SATURDAY...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS WHERE
THERE IS AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW. EXPECT MORE BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...THOUGH LIGHT RAIN REMAINS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THERE AS WELL.

HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN THE EAST COAST WILL WEAKEN EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL LIKELY
SIGNAL THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TEMPERATURES BECOMING MORE
SEASONABLE. OVERALL THE COOLER THAN NORMAL TREND OF THE SUMMER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S AS
THE COOL MARINE AIRMASS COVERS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY.
TUESDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AS WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
BEGINS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES AND MVFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT.
IFR CIGS/VSBYS MOST LIKELY AT CHO AND MRB WEDNESDAY MORNING. A
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND SHRA AND VCTS
ARE POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...THREAT OF TS IS LOW AND THEREFORE NOT
IN THE TAFS. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THURSDAY AND SHRA AND
TSRA IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MARINE AIRMASS SETTLES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY AND WILL STAY BELOW
SCA CRITERIA. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OCCURRENCE OF ANY MARINE HAZARDS THROUGH
THE LONG TERM.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT IT WILL REMAIN
WEAK. TIDAL ANOMALIES AROUND ONE-HALF FOOT ABOVE NORMAL WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. WATER LEVELS WILL BE CLOSE TO MINOR
FLOODING THRESHOLDS DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE LATE TONIGHT BUT
EXPECTATION IS THAT WATER LEVELS WILL REMAIN BELOW MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS SINCE THE ONSHORE FLOW IS WEAK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/HAS
NEAR TERM...BAJ
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...BAJ/HAS/CEB
MARINE...BAJ/HAS/CEB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 200117
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
917 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT...WHILE A WEAK FRONT SLOWLY SINKS SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN
VA. THE FRONT RETURNS AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...AND REMAINS
STALLED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE VA CAPES CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. STILL SEEING SOME
BANDS OF SHOWERS OVER THE LOWER DELMARVA. THE MODELS SHOW THAT
THIS AREA OF RAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY AND CONVERGENCE ZONE WEAKENS.
MEANWHILE...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE SC CONTINUES
TO LIFT ENE AND MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO GENERATE SOME
CONVECTION ACROSS NERN NC LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
BUT LOOKING A CURRENT RADAR AND WATER VAPOR...THIS WAVE MAY REMAIN
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. SO FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH A LOW CHANCE POP
THROUGH 3Z. BY 3Z...SHOULD SEE THE WEAK FRONT OVER SRN VA CONTINUE
TO GET DRUG SOUTHWARD AND INTO NRN NC WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE NERN US PUSHING SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AND SOME CLEARING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES THAN LAST NIGHT WITH
READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND
LOW 70S SOUTH.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO DIG
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL FORCE THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA TO LIFT
BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. WITH SOME DAYTIME HEATING AND THE
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL AROUND...SHOULD SEE SOME
AFTERNOON TO EVENING CONVECTION FORM IN THE PIEDMONT AND THEN HEAD
EASTWARD WITH THE WARM FRONT. THE 12Z NAM IS MORE EXCITED AND MUCH
MORE LIFT THAN THE GFS OR ECMWF. THE MODELS TEND TO AGREE ON AREAS
ACROSS NORTHERN VA FOR RAIN BUT NOT AS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH SO HAVE
TAPERED POPS A BIT LOWER IN THE SOUTH. FOR TEMPERATURES HAVE
LEANED TOWARD THE MET NUMBERS AS THE MAV HAVE BEEN TOO WARM...BUT
SHOULD SEE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH MORE SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE OVERALL PATTERN IS AGREED UPON IN THE MID RANGE PART OF THE
FORECAST AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SLIDES INTO THE
EAST AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MS VALLEY BUILDS
NORTHWARD...SETTING UP NW OVER OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
HOWEVER...BEYOND THE THAT...THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MAKES THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION
VERY UNCERTAIN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE IN THE VICINITY SHOULD BE SOME
STATIONARY AND PARALLEL TO THE FLOW ALOFT AND COULD ALSO BE A
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. AT THIS POINT...WITH THE UNCERTAINTY...LEANED
MORE TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE PIEDMONT EARLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND THEN AREA WIDE IN LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. SUCCEEDING MODEL RUNS WILL HOPEFULLY IMPROVE THE
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL WAVES AND COMPLEXES.

FOR TEMPERATURES...CONTINUED A SLOW WARMING TREND FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT DID NOT GO AS WARM AS THE MAV NUMBERS...LEANING
TOWARD THE MET NUMBERS WHICH LEANED TOWARD THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S ON THURSDAY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER ON FRIDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS
POSSIBLE. FOR LOWS HAVE LEANED WARM THAN GUIDANCE THINKING MORE
CLOUDS AROUND AND A MORE HUMID AIR MASS LIMITING THE COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN NWLY
FLOW ALOFT...BUT DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE...LATE SUMMER NORMS TO BEGIN THE
EXTENDED BEFORE RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW DURING THE EXTENDED IS HIGHLIGHTED BY SPLIT/BLOCKY
FLOW OFF THE ERN CANADA AND NERN US COAST AND AMPLIFYING HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SRN CONUS. THIS PLACES THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION IN
NWLY FLOW ALOFT. ASSOCIATED BACK DOOR FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA SATURDAY MORNING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED OVER THE NE
WILL RIDGE SWWD ALONG THE COAST AND INTO CNTRL VA. NLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW INDICATED IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WILL DRIVE DEWPOINTS
DOWNWARD INTO THE MID 60S. HOWEVER...MODEL DERIVED PWATS REMAIN
AROUND 1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES. COMBINED WITH PERTURBATIONS IN THE NWLY
FLOW...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE MCS
DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM...ROUNDING THE RIDGE AND DROPPING INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT THRU THE WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED
TO LOCATE OFF THE COAST. BLOCK WILL REMAIN OFF THE NE COAST...BUT
MOISTURE FEED WILL BE CUT OFF. DECREASING MOISTURE AND INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM...SO WILL LEAVE POPS SILENT.

NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THICKNESSES AND GUIDANCE YIELD TEMPS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S THRU MONDAY (AROUND -1 STD DEV). OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S NEAR THE WATER. WARMING BACK
UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH BEHIND
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES IN A W/NW
FLOW WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MOIST
GROUND AND LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL MAINTAIN THE CHC FOR ISSUES
WITH CIG/VSBY EACH MORNING.

AS OF 00Z...NE WINDS PREVAILED AT THE TAF SITES WITH NO PCPN
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SKY CONDITIONS WILL BE VARIABLE WITH GRADUAL
LOWERING OF CIGS AND VSBYS. THE MAIN LIMITATION IS INDICATED TO BE
CIGS BUT VSBYS ARE NOT OFF THE TABLE. USED THE RESULTS OF THE
PREVIOUS OVERNIGHT AS A PARTIAL GUIDE AND A MIX OF MOS GUIDANCE TO
MAKE A PLAN FOR THE CURRENT TAF. DESPITE ECG HAVING THE CLOSEST T/TD
SPREAD...EXPERIENCE FROM THIS MORNING WOULD INDICATE THEY WILL NOT
GO DOWN TO IFR FOR A WHILE (I.E. AROUND 12Z) AND MAY HAVE NO LOWER
THAN MVFR. HAVE RIC/PHF WITH SOME PERIODS OF IFR. SBY MOS IS BIASED
BY TEMPERATURES THAT ARE TOO LOW. KEPT ORF OUT OF IFR DUE TO
CLIMATOLOGY.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR BY AROUND 14-15Z. ON WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL
BE A CHC FOR LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS...ESPECIALLY NORTH PORTIONS.
WINDS VEER TOWARD E/SE.

OUTLOOK...CHC FOR AFTN TSTMS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME
MVFR/IFR PSBL NEAR SUNRISE EACH MORNING. CURRENT FORECAST IS DRY ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE
HAS JUST LOCATED OFF THE VA CAPES THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING WWD OVER SRN VA. GENERALLY ONSHORE FLOW 10-15 KT
OVER THE WATERS...NORTH OF THE LOW. SEAS HAVE ALSO BUILT TO 3-4 FT
IN THE NRN WATERS. WAVES GENERALLY 1-2 FT. LOW PRESSURE PUSHES
SLOWLY OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVER THE NRN
WATERS. LOW PRESSURE REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK
AS A WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER NEW ENGLAND...RIDGING SWD OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THE RESULT WILL
BE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW...AVG AROUND 10 KT. SEAS REMAIN 2-3 FT.
BY THE WEEKEND...THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH NELY WINDS INCREASING TO
10-15 KT. WILL PUSH SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS TO 3-4 FT...WITH 5 FT
POSSIBLE 20NM OUT. FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE WATERS SAT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS
NEAR TERM...ESS
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 200117
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
917 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT...WHILE A WEAK FRONT SLOWLY SINKS SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN
VA. THE FRONT RETURNS AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...AND REMAINS
STALLED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE VA CAPES CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. STILL SEEING SOME
BANDS OF SHOWERS OVER THE LOWER DELMARVA. THE MODELS SHOW THAT
THIS AREA OF RAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY AND CONVERGENCE ZONE WEAKENS.
MEANWHILE...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE SC CONTINUES
TO LIFT ENE AND MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO GENERATE SOME
CONVECTION ACROSS NERN NC LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
BUT LOOKING A CURRENT RADAR AND WATER VAPOR...THIS WAVE MAY REMAIN
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. SO FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH A LOW CHANCE POP
THROUGH 3Z. BY 3Z...SHOULD SEE THE WEAK FRONT OVER SRN VA CONTINUE
TO GET DRUG SOUTHWARD AND INTO NRN NC WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE NERN US PUSHING SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AND SOME CLEARING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES THAN LAST NIGHT WITH
READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND
LOW 70S SOUTH.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO DIG
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL FORCE THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA TO LIFT
BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. WITH SOME DAYTIME HEATING AND THE
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL AROUND...SHOULD SEE SOME
AFTERNOON TO EVENING CONVECTION FORM IN THE PIEDMONT AND THEN HEAD
EASTWARD WITH THE WARM FRONT. THE 12Z NAM IS MORE EXCITED AND MUCH
MORE LIFT THAN THE GFS OR ECMWF. THE MODELS TEND TO AGREE ON AREAS
ACROSS NORTHERN VA FOR RAIN BUT NOT AS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH SO HAVE
TAPERED POPS A BIT LOWER IN THE SOUTH. FOR TEMPERATURES HAVE
LEANED TOWARD THE MET NUMBERS AS THE MAV HAVE BEEN TOO WARM...BUT
SHOULD SEE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH MORE SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE OVERALL PATTERN IS AGREED UPON IN THE MID RANGE PART OF THE
FORECAST AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SLIDES INTO THE
EAST AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MS VALLEY BUILDS
NORTHWARD...SETTING UP NW OVER OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
HOWEVER...BEYOND THE THAT...THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MAKES THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION
VERY UNCERTAIN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE IN THE VICINITY SHOULD BE SOME
STATIONARY AND PARALLEL TO THE FLOW ALOFT AND COULD ALSO BE A
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. AT THIS POINT...WITH THE UNCERTAINTY...LEANED
MORE TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE PIEDMONT EARLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND THEN AREA WIDE IN LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. SUCCEEDING MODEL RUNS WILL HOPEFULLY IMPROVE THE
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL WAVES AND COMPLEXES.

FOR TEMPERATURES...CONTINUED A SLOW WARMING TREND FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT DID NOT GO AS WARM AS THE MAV NUMBERS...LEANING
TOWARD THE MET NUMBERS WHICH LEANED TOWARD THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S ON THURSDAY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER ON FRIDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS
POSSIBLE. FOR LOWS HAVE LEANED WARM THAN GUIDANCE THINKING MORE
CLOUDS AROUND AND A MORE HUMID AIR MASS LIMITING THE COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN NWLY
FLOW ALOFT...BUT DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE...LATE SUMMER NORMS TO BEGIN THE
EXTENDED BEFORE RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW DURING THE EXTENDED IS HIGHLIGHTED BY SPLIT/BLOCKY
FLOW OFF THE ERN CANADA AND NERN US COAST AND AMPLIFYING HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SRN CONUS. THIS PLACES THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION IN
NWLY FLOW ALOFT. ASSOCIATED BACK DOOR FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA SATURDAY MORNING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED OVER THE NE
WILL RIDGE SWWD ALONG THE COAST AND INTO CNTRL VA. NLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW INDICATED IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WILL DRIVE DEWPOINTS
DOWNWARD INTO THE MID 60S. HOWEVER...MODEL DERIVED PWATS REMAIN
AROUND 1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES. COMBINED WITH PERTURBATIONS IN THE NWLY
FLOW...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE MCS
DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM...ROUNDING THE RIDGE AND DROPPING INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT THRU THE WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED
TO LOCATE OFF THE COAST. BLOCK WILL REMAIN OFF THE NE COAST...BUT
MOISTURE FEED WILL BE CUT OFF. DECREASING MOISTURE AND INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM...SO WILL LEAVE POPS SILENT.

NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THICKNESSES AND GUIDANCE YIELD TEMPS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S THRU MONDAY (AROUND -1 STD DEV). OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S NEAR THE WATER. WARMING BACK
UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH BEHIND
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES IN A W/NW
FLOW WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MOIST
GROUND AND LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL MAINTAIN THE CHC FOR ISSUES
WITH CIG/VSBY EACH MORNING.

AS OF 00Z...NE WINDS PREVAILED AT THE TAF SITES WITH NO PCPN
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SKY CONDITIONS WILL BE VARIABLE WITH GRADUAL
LOWERING OF CIGS AND VSBYS. THE MAIN LIMITATION IS INDICATED TO BE
CIGS BUT VSBYS ARE NOT OFF THE TABLE. USED THE RESULTS OF THE
PREVIOUS OVERNIGHT AS A PARTIAL GUIDE AND A MIX OF MOS GUIDANCE TO
MAKE A PLAN FOR THE CURRENT TAF. DESPITE ECG HAVING THE CLOSEST T/TD
SPREAD...EXPERIENCE FROM THIS MORNING WOULD INDICATE THEY WILL NOT
GO DOWN TO IFR FOR A WHILE (I.E. AROUND 12Z) AND MAY HAVE NO LOWER
THAN MVFR. HAVE RIC/PHF WITH SOME PERIODS OF IFR. SBY MOS IS BIASED
BY TEMPERATURES THAT ARE TOO LOW. KEPT ORF OUT OF IFR DUE TO
CLIMATOLOGY.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR BY AROUND 14-15Z. ON WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL
BE A CHC FOR LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS...ESPECIALLY NORTH PORTIONS.
WINDS VEER TOWARD E/SE.

OUTLOOK...CHC FOR AFTN TSTMS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME
MVFR/IFR PSBL NEAR SUNRISE EACH MORNING. CURRENT FORECAST IS DRY ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE
HAS JUST LOCATED OFF THE VA CAPES THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING WWD OVER SRN VA. GENERALLY ONSHORE FLOW 10-15 KT
OVER THE WATERS...NORTH OF THE LOW. SEAS HAVE ALSO BUILT TO 3-4 FT
IN THE NRN WATERS. WAVES GENERALLY 1-2 FT. LOW PRESSURE PUSHES
SLOWLY OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVER THE NRN
WATERS. LOW PRESSURE REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK
AS A WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER NEW ENGLAND...RIDGING SWD OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THE RESULT WILL
BE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW...AVG AROUND 10 KT. SEAS REMAIN 2-3 FT.
BY THE WEEKEND...THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH NELY WINDS INCREASING TO
10-15 KT. WILL PUSH SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS TO 3-4 FT...WITH 5 FT
POSSIBLE 20NM OUT. FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE WATERS SAT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS
NEAR TERM...ESS
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM







000
FXUS61 KRNK 192317
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
717 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACKING EAST AND SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE BOUNDARY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
REGION EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EDT TUESDAY...

SHOTGUN PATTERN OF SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA CONTINUES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH LOCAL CONVERGENCE ZONES OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST PER MSAS MAKING
FOR A FEW CLUSTERS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL. HOWEVER INSTABILITY RATHER WEAK
WITH ANALYSIS SHOWING CAPES OF ONLY 500-1000 J/KG AND THIS COMBO WITH
DRIER AIR ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT DEEP CONVECTION FOR THE MOST PART INTO
THIS EVENING. STILL APPEARS POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN CONCERN SO
RUNNING WITH MOSTLY CHANCE POPS INTO THIS EVENING INCLUDING SPOTTY
LIKELY POPS IN THE VERY NEAR TERM WHERE COVERAGE REMAINS BEST.

EXPECT A GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET WITH RESIDUAL
OUTFLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PERHAPS KEEPING LINGERING COVERAGE
AROUND ESPCLY MOUNTAINS INTO LATE EVENING. OTRW WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND
LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD MAKE FOR A PERIOD OF LITTLE POP FROM LATE
EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE
NW APPROACHES LATE. GUIDANCE DIFFERING ON TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF THE
LEADING AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE BUT MOST SHOW SOME WEAK WESTERN SLOPE
CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY TOWARD DAYBREAK. THIS SUPPORTS RETURNING
CHANCE POPS OVER THE FAR WEST LATE BUT LITTLE OUT TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE
AND POINTS EAST. OTRW MAINLY PC WITH PATCHY FOG AROUND AGAIN AND LOWS
MOSTLY IN THE 60S.

NEXT MID LEVEL WAVE SLIDES EAST AND CROSSES THE REGION FROM THE WEST
UNDER THE NEXT PASSING 5H TROUGH WELL TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY. BEST
SUPPORT/DYNAMICS SLIPS TO THE NORTH WHILE A TRAILING VORT LOBE WORKS
EAST OF THE BLUE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. APPEARS BETTER INSTABILITY PER
MORE INSOLATION WOULD SUPPORT SOME SORT OF BROKEN BAND OF SHRA/TSRA
EITHER SLIDING ACROSS OR DEVELOPING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND MOVING
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH BETTER HEATING...TRENDING TOWARD THE
SLOWER 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH WOULD HAVE MOST COVERAGE JUST ARRIVING
IN THE WEST MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN ALONG AND EASTWARD FROM
THE BLUE RIDGE LATER IN THE DAY. HOWEVER WILL HOLD ON GOING ANY HIGHER
THAN DECENT CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY BUT PERHAPS
ENOUGH OF A MID LEVEL JET AND STRONG LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
SEVERE THREAT MAINLY NORTH/EAST. KEPT HIGHS CLOSER TO THE WARMER MAV
MOS EAST AND A BLEND OF THE MET/MAV AND 2M ECMWF VALUES WEST WHERE
LIKELY MORE CLOUDS/SHRA EARLIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT TUESDAY...

SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO EXIT TO THE EAST DURING THE EVENING AND
SHOULD ALLOW A MAINLY DRY NIGHT FOR THE REGION...ASIDE FROM MAYBE
SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE AIDED SHOWERS IN THE FAR WEST. MOST LIKELY
THIS WAVE WILL BE TAKING AN AREA OF ZONE OF SCATTERED CONVECTION
EAST OF THE FCST AREA BY EVENING...BUT LEFT SOME LOW CHANCE POPS
IN FAR EAST DURING THE EVENING IN CASE THIS SLOWS DOWN. TIMING
SUBTLE WAVES IS TRICKY AND MOST MODELS IMPLY ANOTHER WEAK ONE
COULD ARRIVE BY THURSDAY MORNING TO KEEP SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
AND MAYBE EVEN A THUNDERSTORM IN THE WEST. NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW
CONTINUE INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT SO DONT WANT TO RULE THAT OUT...BUT
MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE ARRIVES LATE IN THE DAY THURS TO EARLY
EVENING FOR MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD OR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION...MAINLY IN THE WEST BUT SOME ACTIVITY COULD SPREAD
INTO PIEDMONT DESPITE NW FLOW GIVEN UPPER SUPPORT. DONT SEE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT MUCH SEVERE THREAT REACHING INTO
AREA...UNLESS TIMING IS A LITTLE FASTER BUT COULD BE ORGANIZED
LINE OR BOW ECHO TYPE STRUCTURES COMING THROUGH OHIO VALLEY AND
INTO WV SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON. MORE CONCERNED ABOUT HIGHRAINFALL
RATES AND SOME AREAS GETTING MORE THAN ONE ROUND OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH YET
TO CONSIDER ANY KIND OF HEADLINE FOR FLOOD POTENTIAL....WHICH
WOULD BE CONFINED TO WESTERN SLOPES OF APPALACHIANS.

FRIDAY COULD BE A REPEAT IN SOME REGARDS...BUT AT THIS POINT
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE NOT LOOKING AS POTENT...IF ANYTHING AT ALL.
STILL COULD BE DIURNAL CONVECTION...AGAIN MAINLY WEST WITH NW
FLOW. AS PATTERN AMPLIFIES...MORE LIKEY FRI NIGHT AND INTO
SAT...BACK DOOR FRONT COULD SNEAK DOWN FROM NORTHEAST...BUT LOOKS
LIKE THAT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL OVERNIGHT. THUS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURE
WARM AGAIN FOR FRIDAY BUT STILL UNDER GFS MOS DUE TO LIKELY LOTS
OF CLOUD COVER. TRENDING UP THOUGH FROM PREV FCST SINCE BACK DOOR
FRONT IS EXPECTED AFTER DAY TIME. MAY NOT BE QUITE AS WARM AS
THURSDAY THOUGH...WHERE HAVE LOWER 90S GOING IN EAST WITH MORE
SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPE. GOING CLOSER TO ECMWF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS
BOTH THURS AND FRIDAY AS GFS HAS MID 90S THURSDAY AND LOWER 90S
FRI IN PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY THE
BATTLE BETWEEN LARGE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST TRYING TO BUILD INTO
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...WHILE TROUGH OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST DEEPENS
WHILE CLOSING OFF AND CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT IT WILL SET UP CLOSE
ENOUGH TO COAST TO PUSH BACK DOOR FRONT THROUGH AND WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BEFORE LIKELY WEAKENING AND ALLOWING
MORE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE TO BE FELT BY TUES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA IF WEAK/SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER WEDGE IS IN
PLACE EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE MIXING OUT OVER THE EAST.  WHILE
SURFACE WEDGE FRONT MAY BE WELL TO THE SOUTH DURING MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD...WITH STRONGEST SOUTHWARD PUSH ON SATURDAY...THE 850
BOUNDARY AND MOST LIKELY TRACK FOR UPPER S/WV ENERGY FROM THE NW IS
LIKELY TO BE RIGHT OVER THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA...AND THUS GOOD
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD.  TIMING
MOST LIKELY WINDOWS REMAINS TRICKY...AS MANY OF THESE WAVES ARE
STRONGLY INFLUENCE BY CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES THAT WILL DEVELOP WELL
UPSTREAM. LIKE THE TRENDS OVERALL THAT 12Z GFS IS TAKING...NOT ONLY
WITH RETURN TO SHARPER AMPLITUDE PATTERN...BUT IDEA OF TWO DISTINCT
WAVES HEADING FOR THE WESTERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA...ONE
SATURDAY AND ANOTHER ONE SUNDAY. EXACT TIMES MAY HELP DETERMINE IF
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY...WHICH WOULD LIKELY BE LIMITED TO
THE FAR WEST NEAR EDGE OF WEDGE BOUNDARY...BUT PERHAPS THE BIGGER
CONCERN IS RAINFALL THAT IS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE SAME AREAS AT LEAST
A COUPLE OF DAYS IN A ROW.

THERE COULD BE ANOTHER WAVE FOR MONDAY...BUT AS RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD IN AND TROUGH TO THE EAST AND ASSOCIATED WEDGE WEAKEN WHAT MAY
TEND TO OCCUR IS MORE DIURNAL POP-UP CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE BOUNDARY IN OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA
AS THE ATMOS DESTABILIZES MORE. BY TUESDAY THE SUPPORT TO KEEP WEDGE
IN PLACE SHOULD BE WEAKENING AS TROUGH LIFTS AND SFC HIGH SHIFTS
MORE EAST OF THE AREA...AND OVERALL IT LOOKS A LITTLE DRIER...BUT
NOT SURE ALL POPS CAN BE REMOVED.

GIVEN PATTERN WE`VE BEEN IN...REALLY DON`T HAVE CONFIDENCE TO DRY IT
OUT OR WARM IT UP TOO FAST...SO WILL LEAN TOWARD STRONGER INFLUENCE
OF THE WEDGE THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIP...WHICH WILL HELP STRENGTHEN THE WEDGE TOO.  UNDERCUT EVEN
COOLER ECMWF A LITTLE BIT FOR HIGHS...WITH A BIT MORE WARMING FOR
TUESDAY. BUT IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST THINGS MAY BE ABLE TO WARM UP VERY
QUICKLY A DAY OR TWO EARLIER THAN THIS IF THE WEDGE CAN BREAK AND
SOME OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE BIG UPPER RIDGE CAN BE REALIZED.  THIS
WILL EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP FOR OUR ENTIRE
AREA...BUT AM THINKING IT WILL NOT COME UNTIL MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM EDT TUESDAY...

STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT AS CLOSED UPPER
LOW SLOWLY WORKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND A STALLED
FRONT MEANDERS IN OUR VICINITY AT THE SURFACE. ANOTHER PULSE OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW AND WILL INTERACT
WITH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. RADAR DISPLAYING A FEW STRONG CELLS OVER THE
ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS AND NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS AT 7P/23Z. THESE
STORMS ARE TRACKING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE ALLEGHANY
HIGHLAND STORM IS TRACKING TOWARDS KLYH AND COULD IMPACT TRAFFIC
AFTER 9P/1Z FOR A FEW HOURS. IF THIS RAIN DOES MAKE IT TO LYH THIS
EVENING...OVERNIGHT LIFR FOG/LOW CLOUDS LIKELY. ELSEWHERE...CLOUDS
ARE THINNING THIS EVENING BUT WILL OVER TAKE THE AREA THROUGH THE
NIGHT. KEPT MAJORITY OF THE CEILINGS VFR OVERNIGHT BUT WITH A
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...ADDED MVFR CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG TOWARDS DAY
BREAK. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY HANG AROUND INTO MID MORNING THEN
LIFT TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON. WITH MORE SUN...INSTABILITIES WILL
INCREASE WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST 6-10KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION... AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
UNSETTLED AND VARIABLE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE PATTERN
REMAINS SLUGGISH WITH WAVES OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH WITH A LOT OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THERE WILL BE A DIURNAL FLAVOR TO THINGS
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AT NIGHT WITH IFR/LIFR THEN SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCE FOR VFR WILL BE LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON AFTER FOG/LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF AND
BEFORE CONVECTION BEGINS. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR POSSIBILITY
OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING UPSTREAM AND AFFECTING TAF SITES AT
NIGHT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF/SK
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...MBS/RCS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 192317
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
717 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACKING EAST AND SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE BOUNDARY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
REGION EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EDT TUESDAY...

SHOTGUN PATTERN OF SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA CONTINUES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH LOCAL CONVERGENCE ZONES OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST PER MSAS MAKING
FOR A FEW CLUSTERS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL. HOWEVER INSTABILITY RATHER WEAK
WITH ANALYSIS SHOWING CAPES OF ONLY 500-1000 J/KG AND THIS COMBO WITH
DRIER AIR ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT DEEP CONVECTION FOR THE MOST PART INTO
THIS EVENING. STILL APPEARS POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN CONCERN SO
RUNNING WITH MOSTLY CHANCE POPS INTO THIS EVENING INCLUDING SPOTTY
LIKELY POPS IN THE VERY NEAR TERM WHERE COVERAGE REMAINS BEST.

EXPECT A GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET WITH RESIDUAL
OUTFLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PERHAPS KEEPING LINGERING COVERAGE
AROUND ESPCLY MOUNTAINS INTO LATE EVENING. OTRW WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND
LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD MAKE FOR A PERIOD OF LITTLE POP FROM LATE
EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE
NW APPROACHES LATE. GUIDANCE DIFFERING ON TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF THE
LEADING AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE BUT MOST SHOW SOME WEAK WESTERN SLOPE
CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY TOWARD DAYBREAK. THIS SUPPORTS RETURNING
CHANCE POPS OVER THE FAR WEST LATE BUT LITTLE OUT TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE
AND POINTS EAST. OTRW MAINLY PC WITH PATCHY FOG AROUND AGAIN AND LOWS
MOSTLY IN THE 60S.

NEXT MID LEVEL WAVE SLIDES EAST AND CROSSES THE REGION FROM THE WEST
UNDER THE NEXT PASSING 5H TROUGH WELL TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY. BEST
SUPPORT/DYNAMICS SLIPS TO THE NORTH WHILE A TRAILING VORT LOBE WORKS
EAST OF THE BLUE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. APPEARS BETTER INSTABILITY PER
MORE INSOLATION WOULD SUPPORT SOME SORT OF BROKEN BAND OF SHRA/TSRA
EITHER SLIDING ACROSS OR DEVELOPING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND MOVING
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH BETTER HEATING...TRENDING TOWARD THE
SLOWER 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH WOULD HAVE MOST COVERAGE JUST ARRIVING
IN THE WEST MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN ALONG AND EASTWARD FROM
THE BLUE RIDGE LATER IN THE DAY. HOWEVER WILL HOLD ON GOING ANY HIGHER
THAN DECENT CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY BUT PERHAPS
ENOUGH OF A MID LEVEL JET AND STRONG LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
SEVERE THREAT MAINLY NORTH/EAST. KEPT HIGHS CLOSER TO THE WARMER MAV
MOS EAST AND A BLEND OF THE MET/MAV AND 2M ECMWF VALUES WEST WHERE
LIKELY MORE CLOUDS/SHRA EARLIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT TUESDAY...

SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO EXIT TO THE EAST DURING THE EVENING AND
SHOULD ALLOW A MAINLY DRY NIGHT FOR THE REGION...ASIDE FROM MAYBE
SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE AIDED SHOWERS IN THE FAR WEST. MOST LIKELY
THIS WAVE WILL BE TAKING AN AREA OF ZONE OF SCATTERED CONVECTION
EAST OF THE FCST AREA BY EVENING...BUT LEFT SOME LOW CHANCE POPS
IN FAR EAST DURING THE EVENING IN CASE THIS SLOWS DOWN. TIMING
SUBTLE WAVES IS TRICKY AND MOST MODELS IMPLY ANOTHER WEAK ONE
COULD ARRIVE BY THURSDAY MORNING TO KEEP SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
AND MAYBE EVEN A THUNDERSTORM IN THE WEST. NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW
CONTINUE INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT SO DONT WANT TO RULE THAT OUT...BUT
MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE ARRIVES LATE IN THE DAY THURS TO EARLY
EVENING FOR MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD OR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION...MAINLY IN THE WEST BUT SOME ACTIVITY COULD SPREAD
INTO PIEDMONT DESPITE NW FLOW GIVEN UPPER SUPPORT. DONT SEE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT MUCH SEVERE THREAT REACHING INTO
AREA...UNLESS TIMING IS A LITTLE FASTER BUT COULD BE ORGANIZED
LINE OR BOW ECHO TYPE STRUCTURES COMING THROUGH OHIO VALLEY AND
INTO WV SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON. MORE CONCERNED ABOUT HIGHRAINFALL
RATES AND SOME AREAS GETTING MORE THAN ONE ROUND OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH YET
TO CONSIDER ANY KIND OF HEADLINE FOR FLOOD POTENTIAL....WHICH
WOULD BE CONFINED TO WESTERN SLOPES OF APPALACHIANS.

FRIDAY COULD BE A REPEAT IN SOME REGARDS...BUT AT THIS POINT
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE NOT LOOKING AS POTENT...IF ANYTHING AT ALL.
STILL COULD BE DIURNAL CONVECTION...AGAIN MAINLY WEST WITH NW
FLOW. AS PATTERN AMPLIFIES...MORE LIKEY FRI NIGHT AND INTO
SAT...BACK DOOR FRONT COULD SNEAK DOWN FROM NORTHEAST...BUT LOOKS
LIKE THAT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL OVERNIGHT. THUS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURE
WARM AGAIN FOR FRIDAY BUT STILL UNDER GFS MOS DUE TO LIKELY LOTS
OF CLOUD COVER. TRENDING UP THOUGH FROM PREV FCST SINCE BACK DOOR
FRONT IS EXPECTED AFTER DAY TIME. MAY NOT BE QUITE AS WARM AS
THURSDAY THOUGH...WHERE HAVE LOWER 90S GOING IN EAST WITH MORE
SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPE. GOING CLOSER TO ECMWF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS
BOTH THURS AND FRIDAY AS GFS HAS MID 90S THURSDAY AND LOWER 90S
FRI IN PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY THE
BATTLE BETWEEN LARGE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST TRYING TO BUILD INTO
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...WHILE TROUGH OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST DEEPENS
WHILE CLOSING OFF AND CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT IT WILL SET UP CLOSE
ENOUGH TO COAST TO PUSH BACK DOOR FRONT THROUGH AND WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BEFORE LIKELY WEAKENING AND ALLOWING
MORE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE TO BE FELT BY TUES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA IF WEAK/SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER WEDGE IS IN
PLACE EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE MIXING OUT OVER THE EAST.  WHILE
SURFACE WEDGE FRONT MAY BE WELL TO THE SOUTH DURING MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD...WITH STRONGEST SOUTHWARD PUSH ON SATURDAY...THE 850
BOUNDARY AND MOST LIKELY TRACK FOR UPPER S/WV ENERGY FROM THE NW IS
LIKELY TO BE RIGHT OVER THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA...AND THUS GOOD
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD.  TIMING
MOST LIKELY WINDOWS REMAINS TRICKY...AS MANY OF THESE WAVES ARE
STRONGLY INFLUENCE BY CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES THAT WILL DEVELOP WELL
UPSTREAM. LIKE THE TRENDS OVERALL THAT 12Z GFS IS TAKING...NOT ONLY
WITH RETURN TO SHARPER AMPLITUDE PATTERN...BUT IDEA OF TWO DISTINCT
WAVES HEADING FOR THE WESTERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA...ONE
SATURDAY AND ANOTHER ONE SUNDAY. EXACT TIMES MAY HELP DETERMINE IF
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY...WHICH WOULD LIKELY BE LIMITED TO
THE FAR WEST NEAR EDGE OF WEDGE BOUNDARY...BUT PERHAPS THE BIGGER
CONCERN IS RAINFALL THAT IS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE SAME AREAS AT LEAST
A COUPLE OF DAYS IN A ROW.

THERE COULD BE ANOTHER WAVE FOR MONDAY...BUT AS RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD IN AND TROUGH TO THE EAST AND ASSOCIATED WEDGE WEAKEN WHAT MAY
TEND TO OCCUR IS MORE DIURNAL POP-UP CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE BOUNDARY IN OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA
AS THE ATMOS DESTABILIZES MORE. BY TUESDAY THE SUPPORT TO KEEP WEDGE
IN PLACE SHOULD BE WEAKENING AS TROUGH LIFTS AND SFC HIGH SHIFTS
MORE EAST OF THE AREA...AND OVERALL IT LOOKS A LITTLE DRIER...BUT
NOT SURE ALL POPS CAN BE REMOVED.

GIVEN PATTERN WE`VE BEEN IN...REALLY DON`T HAVE CONFIDENCE TO DRY IT
OUT OR WARM IT UP TOO FAST...SO WILL LEAN TOWARD STRONGER INFLUENCE
OF THE WEDGE THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIP...WHICH WILL HELP STRENGTHEN THE WEDGE TOO.  UNDERCUT EVEN
COOLER ECMWF A LITTLE BIT FOR HIGHS...WITH A BIT MORE WARMING FOR
TUESDAY. BUT IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST THINGS MAY BE ABLE TO WARM UP VERY
QUICKLY A DAY OR TWO EARLIER THAN THIS IF THE WEDGE CAN BREAK AND
SOME OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE BIG UPPER RIDGE CAN BE REALIZED.  THIS
WILL EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP FOR OUR ENTIRE
AREA...BUT AM THINKING IT WILL NOT COME UNTIL MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM EDT TUESDAY...

STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT AS CLOSED UPPER
LOW SLOWLY WORKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND A STALLED
FRONT MEANDERS IN OUR VICINITY AT THE SURFACE. ANOTHER PULSE OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW AND WILL INTERACT
WITH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. RADAR DISPLAYING A FEW STRONG CELLS OVER THE
ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS AND NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS AT 7P/23Z. THESE
STORMS ARE TRACKING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE ALLEGHANY
HIGHLAND STORM IS TRACKING TOWARDS KLYH AND COULD IMPACT TRAFFIC
AFTER 9P/1Z FOR A FEW HOURS. IF THIS RAIN DOES MAKE IT TO LYH THIS
EVENING...OVERNIGHT LIFR FOG/LOW CLOUDS LIKELY. ELSEWHERE...CLOUDS
ARE THINNING THIS EVENING BUT WILL OVER TAKE THE AREA THROUGH THE
NIGHT. KEPT MAJORITY OF THE CEILINGS VFR OVERNIGHT BUT WITH A
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...ADDED MVFR CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG TOWARDS DAY
BREAK. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY HANG AROUND INTO MID MORNING THEN
LIFT TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON. WITH MORE SUN...INSTABILITIES WILL
INCREASE WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST 6-10KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION... AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
UNSETTLED AND VARIABLE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE PATTERN
REMAINS SLUGGISH WITH WAVES OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH WITH A LOT OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THERE WILL BE A DIURNAL FLAVOR TO THINGS
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AT NIGHT WITH IFR/LIFR THEN SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCE FOR VFR WILL BE LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON AFTER FOG/LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF AND
BEFORE CONVECTION BEGINS. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR POSSIBILITY
OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING UPSTREAM AND AFFECTING TAF SITES AT
NIGHT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF/SK
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...MBS/RCS



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