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000
FXUS61 KLWX 240134
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
934 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN ON SUNDAY AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS TO OUR SOUTH. SEVERAL WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY...BRINGING
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE AREA NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AT 01Z...1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER GREAT LAKES WHILE
996 MB LOW CONTINUES IN THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS HAS KEPT UP THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA THROUGH
THIS EVENING. WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH ARE STILL BEING
REPORTED IN FROM DC METRO...AS FAR WEST AS MARTINSBURG...AND
EXTENDING ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. FURTHER WEST...
THERE HAS BEE A QUICK DECOUPLING OF HIGHER WINDS AS THE AIRMASS
STABILIZES DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. LATEST 18Z NAM PROGS 925
MB NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT TO CONTINUE EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE THROUGH 09Z...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST OT EAST TO
LESS THAN 20 KT BY 18Z ON THURSDAY.

EXPECTING WINDS WILL ABATE IN MANY LOCATIONS WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR BETWEEN 10 PM AND MIDNIGHT...WITH WINDS STILL A BIT GUSTY
EAST OF I-95 TILL MAYBE AN HOUR LATER.

IN AREAS WHERE WINDS DECOUPLE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...ONE CONCERN
IS THAT WITH THE DRY AIR AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S...ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES...THAT COMBINATION COULD ALLOW FOR
SOME PATCHY FROST IN PLACES MAINLY AWAY FROM DC AND BALTIMORE
METRO AREAS. HOWEVER...LOWERING DEW POINTS OVERNIGHT WILL HELP
KEEP A BIT OF A SPREAD BETWEEN AIR AND DEW PT TEMPS. THUS NOT
EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD FROST CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...
ALTHOUGH A FEW AREA COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FROST IN SOME OF THE
COLDER VALLEYS MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

ON THURS...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED WITH COOLISH TEMPS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. RED FLAG FIRE WEATHER IS CONCERN ACROSS MAINLY THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA...FROM CARROLL CO MD ACROSS TO
HARFORD CO AND SOUTH INTO ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTIES IS MORNING NW
WINDS GUSTING TO 20/25 MPH ALONG WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 20S. THUS
HAVE CONVERTED PORTION OF PREVIOUS FIRE WATCH INTO A RED FLAG
WARNING. SPS FOR ENHANCED FIRE DANGER MAY ALSO BE NEEDED FURTHER
WEST. SEE FIRE WX DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS MTNS
FRIDAY MORNING AS A SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. RETURN
FLOW WILL BE USHERING IN WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE AROUND 1.3 INCHES BY FRI
AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL FORCING ALONG THE SFC FROPA WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD AND ALONG THE FROPA. SFC HEATING IN
CENTRAL VA WILL LIKELY LEAD TO HEAVIER SHOWERS AND EVEN A ISO
THUNDERSTORM.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRYING WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FROPA
SATURDAY NIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL ROTATE AROUND THE GREAT
LAKES LOW AND MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON
THE SPEED OF THE FROPA TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S TO THE MID 70S
ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS TIME KEPT TEMPS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
AND VALLEY LOCATIONS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. IF THE FROPA MOVES
FASTER TEMPS WILL BE LOWER. LITTLE QPF IF ANY IS EXPECTED WITH
THE FROPA. LEANED TOWARDS THE GFS AND PUT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND NW SUBURBS OF DC AND BALTIMORE SATURDAY
DUE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND LEAD TO
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ANCHOR ITSELF OVER NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A LARGE AND SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE
OVER THE GREAT PLAINS.

CLOUDS WILL SPILL OVER THE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...STARTING
AS THIN HIGH CIRRUS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BUT LOWERING AND
THICKENING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. CHANCES FOR RAIN GRADUALLY
INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO MOISTEN.

LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING AND EXTENT OF RAINFALL...AS WELL AS THE TRACK OF
LOW PRESSURE AND THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF A DEVELOPING WARM
FRONT OVER THE CAROLINAS. THIS IS DUE TO A VERY COMPLEX
PATTERN...WITH A STRONG CUTOFF LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
INTERACTING WITH THE LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES...AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PINCHED IN BETWEEN OVER NEW
ENGLAND. THEREFORE...THERE IS A HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY IN DETAILS
SUCH AS THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...WINDS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF LOW PRESSURE...UNSETTLED WEATHER COULD
LINGER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NW WINDS CONTINUE GUSTING INTO 20-25KT RANGE AT 01Z. EXPECT SUFFICIENT
AIRMASS DECOUPLING TO TAKE NEAR SFC WIND GUSTS OUT OF THE EQUATION
BY 02Z. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THIS. CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT.

ON THUR...VFR WITH N/NW WINDS 10KT WITH GUST TO 25 KT THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC. VCTS IS POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL VA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. SLY WINDS WILL BECOME W-NW BEHIND THE FROPA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY. GUSTS UP TO 30KTS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15
KNOTS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
CANCELLED GALE AT 6 PM...AND SCA CONTINUES ACROSS ALL MARINE AREA TONIGHT.
ON THUR...AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
MAINLY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...TO BELOW SCA LEVELS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MAY BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED A FEW HRS EARLY ON THU DEPENDING ON HOW
QUICKLY THE AXIS OF THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

SLY WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. SCA
MAY BE NEEDED AS GUSTS INCREASE IN THE LOWER BAY AND LOWER TIDAL
POTOMAC. WINDS WILL BECOME WRLY BEFORE ANOTHER FROPA CROSS THE
WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NW WINDS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND A GALE WARNING IS EVEN POSSIBLE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS MAY LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND
INTO SUNDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS. WINDS BECOME LIGHTER LATE
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES NEAR THE REGION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE GREATER BALTIMORE AREA THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY. THE
COMBINATION OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO A PARTICULARLY ENHANCED FIRE
WEATHER THREAT FOR THE GREATER BALTIMORE AREA.

A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR AN ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS
LIKELY ELSEWHERE SUCH AS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND...EASTERN
WEST VIRGINIA... AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF VIRGINIA. WINDS WILL EASE
SOONER FOR THESE AREAS...SO A RED FLAG WARNING WAS NOT WARRANTED AS
OF THIS TIME FOR THESE AREAS.


&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     MDZ005>007-010-011-014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SMZ
NEAR TERM...SMZ
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...SMZ
MARINE...SMZ
FIRE WEATHER...BAJ








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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 240106
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
906 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLIDES OVER THE REGION INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...LOCATING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A
SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS HAS SHIFTED OFFSHORE PER LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AND DECREASING NW
WINDS. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA...ANOTHER
ROUND OF CAA OVERNIGHT WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S
INLAND AND INTO THE LOW 40S NEAR THE COAST. WINDS WILL NOT
COMPLETELY DE-COUPLE TONIGHT...RANGING FROM 5-10 MPH INLAND TO 10
TO 15 NEAR THE COAST. COMBINE LIGHT MIXING WITH RATHER DRY GROUND
CONDITIONS AND LOW DEWPOINTS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD FROST
AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF GRIDS. HOWEVER...PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE IN
SHELTERED LOCALES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OFF THE SE COAST THURS AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ERN CONUS. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL DE-AMPLIFY AND EJECT NEWD INTO THE PLAINS
THURS...PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO THE MS VALLEY. FLOW
RETURNS TO THE SOUTH LATE THURS-THURS NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
OVER THE REGION. MID-LEVEL WLY FLOW OVER THE GULF STATES INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC WILL PREVENT MUCH OF A MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE
REGION....SO DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. NWLY WINDS WILL NOT BE
AS STRONG THURS AFTERNOON...BUT MIN RH VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS-
LOW 20S AND DRY FUELS WILL AGAIN RESULT IN POTENTIAL FIRE WX
CONCERNS. PLEASE REFER TO FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

RIDGE AXIS PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI MORNING AS THE UPPER WAVE REACHES
THE OH VALLEY. QUESTIONS STILL EXIST ON STRENGTH OF THE UPPER WAVE
AS IT CROSSES THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRI AFTERNOON...WITH THE
LATEST GFS TRENDING SHARPER THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUNS AND COMING
MORE IN LINE WITH ITS NAM/ECMWF COUNTERPARTS. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON-EVENING. SHORT LIVED LOW-LEVEL SW
FLOW WILL BE ABLE TO ADVECT MODEST PRECIP WATER VALUES OF 1-1.25
INCHES INTO THE REGION...BUT DEWPOINTS ONLY PROGGED TO WARM INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 FRI. WITH THE LOCAL AREA IN THE WARM
SECTOR FRI...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
(DEPENDING ON FRONTAL TIMING). COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPS AND
THETA-E ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
(MLCAPE <500 J/KG)...MOSTLY OVER ERN VA/NERN NC. ALSO...LITTLE
INSTABILITY/LIFT PROGGED IN THE MIXED PHASE LAYER SO ANTICIPATE
ONLY ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER IN CONVECTION. JUST LIKE
YESTERDAYS FRONT...BIGGEST LIMITATIONS ARE WSW FLOW AND LOW
DEWPOINTS. SHEAR IS ALSO MARGINAL (~30-35 KT) SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION ALONG THE WEAKLY FORCED FRONT. WITH THAT
SAID...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS OVER THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON
ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT. QPF AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN
ONE TO TWO TENTHS.

FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT AS A SECONDARY DRY COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES APPROACHES FROM
THE NW. BREEZY WLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW SAT AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES WILL RESULT IN DAYTIME TEMPS AROUND 80 DEGS MOST
LOCALES...EVEN BEHIND FRIDAYS FRONT. NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE AND
MEASURABLE PRECIP FORECAST TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA LATE
SAT-SAT EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY PATTERN OVER
THE CONUS NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN AN INCREASINGLY WET PERIOD.

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THIS BLOCKY FLOW...MAINLY IN
LOCATION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO BE DRAPPED ACROSS THE RGN
ALONG WITH TIMING OF SEVERAL BATCHES OF MSTR PROGGED TO ROTATE NE
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH. WHAT TODAYS MODELS SHOW DIFFERENT FROM YSTRDYS
IS A SLOWER START TO THE PCPN MON...SOMEWHAT HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR
AN EXTNDD PRD OF WETNESS FROM MON NITE THRU WED ALONG WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT WILL LIKELY PLAY HAVOC WITH TEMPS.

KEPT SUN DRY / SEASONABLE AS H5 RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. WARM
FRONT APPRCHS THE RGN FROM THE SW SUN NIGHT...BUT GUID SUGGESTS ANY
MOISTURE STAYS W OF FA THRU 12Z MON. LOWS SAT / SUN NIGHTS IN THE
M40S-L50S. HIGHS SUN 70-75 WEST OF THE BAY...M-U60S ALONG THE COAST.

FORECAST RATHER PROBLEMATIC NEXT WEEK AS THE MODELS DIFFER ON WHERE
THIS FRONTAL BNDRY SETS UP. THIS WILL LIKELY DETERMINE TMPS AND PCPN
TYPES (CONVECTIVE VS STRATIFORMED RAIN). UPR LVL LOW PROGGED TO
SLOWLY EJECT EAST FROM THE NATIONS MID SECTION MON NIGHT ONLY TO THE
OHIO VLLY BY WED. A MOIST E-SE FLOW WILL LIKELY ADD TO THE MOISTURE
CONTENT RESULTING IN PERIODIC CHCS FOR PCPN THRU THE PRD. FRNTL
BNDRY MAY ALSO TRY TO MAKE A RUN FARTHER NORTH BY WED AS SFC LOW
BEGINS TO CROSS THE MTS. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH
ALL THIS OUT TO SEA...BUT THAT MIGHT NOT BE UNTIL THURSDAY. UPSHOT
WILL CARRY HIGH CHC POPS (SHWRS) MON THROUGH WED. TMPS COOLEST
(L-M60S) ALONG THE COAST DUE TO AN ONSHORE FLOW. HIGHS U60S-L70S
WEST OF THE BAY. LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES OVERNIGHT. THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT TO KEEP AT LEAST SOME WIND AT THE
TAF SITES. NW TO N WINDS MAY GUST TO BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KNOTS INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AT ORF AND SBY. WINDS DIMINISH OVER INLAND
LOCATIONS TO AROUND 5 KNOTS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR WILL BE PSBL AT THE TAF SITES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND WITH VFR AND DRY WEATHER TAKING
OVER THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE
FOR PCPN BY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
OVERNIGHT...KEEPING NW WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SCA THRESHOLD. WINDS IN
THE RIVERS AND SOUND ARE FORECAST TO BE NO HIGHER THAN 15 KNOTS...
EXCEPT IN THE LOWER JAMES RIVER WHERE SCA ENDS AT MIDNIGHT.

WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY THURSDAY MORNING. SCA DROPS OFF LATE
THURSDAY MORNING IN THE BAY AND IN THE COASTAL WATERS BY 4 PM
THURSDAY.

SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. THESE
SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA. BEHIND THE FRONT...CURRENT INDICATIONS HAVE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TOO WEAK FOR SCA CONDITIONS DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS (MIN RH VALUES 15-25%) WILL OCCUR AGAIN ON
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY. THIS WILL
PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR ANY RED FLAG WARNINGS OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
NW WINDS DO INCREASE TO AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS 20-25 MPH DURING
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HOURS ON THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE.
GIVEN HOW LOW RH VALUES WILL BE THURS AFTN COUPLED WITH LOW FUEL
MOISTURE CONDITIONS...HAVE OPTED FOR AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT FOR OUR MD COUNTIES...AFTER COORDINATION WITH MD FIRE
OFFICIALS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM
NEAR TERM...JDM/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MPR/LSA
FIRE WEATHER...






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000
FXUS61 KRNK 232331
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
731 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
PASSING OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

MAINLY A TEMP FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE UPPER
TROUGH DEPARTS OVERNIGHT AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE COOL SURFACE HIGH TO SLIDE SE ACROSS
THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND THEN TO THE COAST ON THURSDAY. THIS
WILL KEEP VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE BUT ALLOW FOR DIMINISHING WINDS
TONIGHT AND THE ONSET OF WEAK SW FLOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
RIDGE DEPARTS. MAY START TO SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS RETURN FROM THE
WEST LATER THURSDAY OTRW CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND MAINLY SUNNY
THURSDAY.

MAIN CONCERN WITH LOW TEMPS TONIGHT GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN LOW AND
WINDS GO LIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES. THIS WOULD SUPPORT VALUES GOING
BELOW FREEZING MOUNTAINS...WITH SOME 20S VALLEYS...AND WELL INTO
THE 30S OUT EAST WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS STARTED. HOWEVER
SIMILAR TO TEMPS A FEW NIGHTS BACK...DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS LOOK
QUITE LARGE GIVEN DRY AIR WHICH WONT SUPPORT MUCH FROST OUTSIDE
THE BOTTOMS/LOW SPOTS...WHILE COLDEST VALUES WILL BE BRIEF NEAR
DAWN PENDING HOW FAR WINDS DECOUPLE. THUS AFTER COORDINATION WITH
SURROUNDING SITES...HAVE OPTED OUT OF A FROST ADVISORY FOR NOW
WHILE INCREASING THE PATCHY COVERAGE EAST LATE WITH LOWS MAINLY
MID/UPPER 30S. SHOULD QUICKLY RECOVER ON THURSDAY PER 85H WARMING
AND WEAK SW FLOW AIDED BY HEATING OF DRY AIR WHICH WILL PUSH MOST
INTO THE 60S IF NOT LOW 70S IN SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

SHORT WAVE COMING OUT OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL CROSS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT...REACHING THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTY WARNING AREA AROUND 12Z/8AM FRIDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE
WEAKENS AS IT CROSSES THE AREA. THE CORRESPONDING SURFACE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

WILL SPEED UP ARRIVAL TIME OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY MORNING. WITH
THIS TIMING...APPEARS THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE
MAINTAINED A LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTY
WARNING AREA AS A SECONDARY FRONT COMES IN FROM THE NORTH ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

A MORE PRONOUNCED PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL COME IN BEHIND A FRONT ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND WILL
KEEP THE WINDS FROM THE EAST ON SUNDAY. HAVE KEPT SUNDAY MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES BELOW GUIDANCE WITH THE EXPECTED EAST COMPONENT OF
THE WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER.

THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME.
WILL HAVE AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THEN A CLOSED LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY WITH
BROAD FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. MOISTURE WILL LIFT OVER THE
STALLED BOUNDARY IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON MONDAY. MODELS WERE
OFFERING DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE ECMWF MUCH FARTHER NORTH AND WEST
THAN THE GFS.

WPC WAS LEANING TOWARD A TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. WITH OVERALL SOUTHWEST FLOW AND THE FRONT REMAINING TO
THE WEST UNTIL WEDNESDAY...HAVE TRENDED TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES
FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NW WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT WITH RETURN OF LIGHT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVERHEAD
AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING
THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS
MOVE EAST WITH THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH VFR EXPECTED UNDER GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS SUNDAY WITH FAIR DRY WEATHER. MOISTURE
WILL START TO RETURN NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AS A BOUNDARY LIFTS NE
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS WILL LIKELY
BRING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND ON MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE VIRGINIA BLUE RIDGE
NORTHWARD INTO NORTH CENTRAL VA FOR CONTINUED GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY. FIRE DANGER STATEMENT ELSW FOR INCREASED
FIRE DANGER WHERE WINDS WONT BE QUITE AS STRONG AND FUELS A BIT
WETTER.

OTRW WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 20 MPH SUSTAINED...WITH GUSTS OF
25 TO 30 MPH THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. HUMIDITY MINIMUMS NEAR
20 PERCENT WILL ALSO BE COMMON RESULTING IN CONTINUED MARGINAL RED
FLAG CRITERIA UNTIL AROUND SUNSET. IN ADDITION...IT HAS BEEN 7
DAYS SINCE MEASURABLE RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED IN ROANOKE VALLEY AND
THE IMMEDIATE BLUE RIDGE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE NEW RIVER AND
SHENANDOAH VALLEYS. THIS HAS ALLOWED LEAVES AND BRUSH TO BECOME
DRY AND VERY RECEPTIVE TO FIRE...10 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE DROPPING TO
AROUND 7 PERCENT OR LOWER.

CONCERN IS FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD IF A WILDFIRE OCCURS.

WINDS SHOULD FINALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS RECOVERING TO 70-80 PERCENT OR HIGHER AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER ON THURSDAY AND GRADUALLY
TURN MORE SW UNDER 10 MPH. HOWEVER RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL AGAIN
DROP WITH HEATING DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH LEVELS LIKELY DROPPING
TO BELOW 25-30 PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. A COLD FRONT MAY
BRING SOME WETTING RAIN IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS DURING FRIDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ007-
     009>020-022>024-032>035-047.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/KK
FIRE WEATHER...JH/PM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 232321
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
721 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLIDES OVER THE REGION INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...LOCATING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A
SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS HAS SHIFTED OFFSHORE PER LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AND DECREASING NW
WINDS. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA...ANOTHER
ROUND OF CAA OVERNIGHT WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S
INLAND AND INTO THE LOW 40S NEAR THE COAST. WINDS WILL NOT
COMPLETELY DE-COUPLE TONIGHT...RANGING FROM 5-10 MPH INLAND TO 10
TO 15 NEAR THE COAST. COMBINE LIGHT MIXING WITH RATHER DRY GROUND
CONDITIONS AND LOW DEWPOINTS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD FROST
AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF GRIDS. HOWEVER...PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE IN
SHELTERED LOCALES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OFF THE SE COAST THURS AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ERN CONUS. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL DE-AMPLIFY AND EJECT NEWD INTO THE PLAINS
THURS...PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO THE MS VALLEY. FLOW
RETURNS TO THE SOUTH LATE THURS-THURS NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
OVER THE REGION. MID-LEVEL WLY FLOW OVER THE GULF STATES INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC WILL PREVENT MUCH OF A MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE
REGION....SO DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. NWLY WINDS WILL NOT BE
AS STRONG THURS AFTERNOON...BUT MIN RH VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS-
LOW 20S AND DRY FUELS WILL AGAIN RESULT IN POTENTIAL FIRE WX
CONCERNS. PLEASE REFER TO FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

RIDGE AXIS PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI MORNING AS THE UPPER WAVE REACHES
THE OH VALLEY. QUESTIONS STILL EXIST ON STRENGTH OF THE UPPER WAVE
AS IT CROSSES THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRI AFTERNOON...WITH THE
LATEST GFS TRENDING SHARPER THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUNS AND COMING
MORE IN LINE WITH ITS NAM/ECMWF COUNTERPARTS. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON-EVENING. SHORT LIVED LOW-LEVEL SW
FLOW WILL BE ABLE TO ADVECT MODEST PRECIP WATER VALUES OF 1-1.25
INCHES INTO THE REGION...BUT DEWPOINTS ONLY PROGGED TO WARM INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 FRI. WITH THE LOCAL AREA IN THE WARM
SECTOR FRI...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
(DEPENDING ON FRONTAL TIMING). COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPS AND
THETA-E ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
(MLCAPE <500 J/KG)...MOSTLY OVER ERN VA/NERN NC. ALSO...LITTLE
INSTABILITY/LIFT PROGGED IN THE MIXED PHASE LAYER SO ANTICIPATE
ONLY ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER IN CONVECTION. JUST LIKE
YESTERDAYS FRONT...BIGGEST LIMITATIONS ARE WSW FLOW AND LOW
DEWPOINTS. SHEAR IS ALSO MARGINAL (~30-35 KT) SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION ALONG THE WEAKLY FORCED FRONT. WITH THAT
SAID...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS OVER THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON
ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT. QPF AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN
ONE TO TWO TENTHS.

FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT AS A SECONDARY DRY COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES APPROACHES FROM
THE NW. BREEZY WLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW SAT AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES WILL RESULT IN DAYTIME TEMPS AROUND 80 DEGS MOST
LOCALES...EVEN BEHIND FRIDAYS FRONT. NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE AND
MEASURABLE PRECIP FORECAST TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA LATE
SAT-SAT EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY PATTERN OVER
THE CONUS NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN AN INCREASINGLY WET PERIOD.

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THIS BLOCKY FLOW...MAINLY IN
LOCATION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO BE DRAPPED ACROSS THE RGN
ALONG WITH TIMING OF SEVERAL BATCHES OF MSTR PROGGED TO ROTATE NE
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH. WHAT TODAYS MODELS SHOW DIFFERENT FROM YSTRDYS
IS A SLOWER START TO THE PCPN MON...SOMEWHAT HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR
AN EXTNDD PRD OF WETNESS FROM MON NITE THRU WED ALONG WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT WILL LIKELY PLAY HAVOC WITH TEMPS.

KEPT SUN DRY / SEASONABLE AS H5 RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. WARM
FRONT APPRCHS THE RGN FROM THE SW SUN NIGHT...BUT GUID SUGGESTS ANY
MOISTURE STAYS W OF FA THRU 12Z MON. LOWS SAT / SUN NIGHTS IN THE
M40S-L50S. HIGHS SUN 70-75 WEST OF THE BAY...M-U60S ALONG THE COAST.

FORECAST RATHER PROBLEMATIC NEXT WEEK AS THE MODELS DIFFER ON WHERE
THIS FRONTAL BNDRY SETS UP. THIS WILL LIKELY DETERMINE TMPS AND PCPN
TYPES (CONVECTIVE VS STRATIFORMED RAIN). UPR LVL LOW PROGGED TO
SLOWLY EJECT EAST FROM THE NATIONS MID SECTION MON NIGHT ONLY TO THE
OHIO VLLY BY WED. A MOIST E-SE FLOW WILL LIKELY ADD TO THE MOISTURE
CONTENT RESULTING IN PERIODIC CHCS FOR PCPN THRU THE PRD. FRNTL
BNDRY MAY ALSO TRY TO MAKE A RUN FARTHER NORTH BY WED AS SFC LOW
BEGINS TO CROSS THE MTS. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH
ALL THIS OUT TO SEA...BUT THAT MIGHT NOT BE UNTIL THURSDAY. UPSHOT
WILL CARRY HIGH CHC POPS (SHWRS) MON THROUGH WED. TMPS COOLEST
(L-M60S) ALONG THE COAST DUE TO AN ONSHORE FLOW. HIGHS U60S-L70S
WEST OF THE BAY. LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH FARTHER OFF SHORE...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE WNW-NW
WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE CLOSE TO 20G30KT BEFORE TAPERING OFF DURING
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. NW WIND SPEEDS BRIEFLY INCREASE
THU MORNING AND THEN DROP OFF THROUGH THE AFTN AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA AND BECOMES LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
BY THU EVENING.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION THU NIGHT...CAUSING NW
WINDS TO BACK AROUND TO THE S-SE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRI EVENING...BRINGING SHOWERS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO AREA TAF SITES. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NLY AROUND 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
MIXING STILL PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS LATE THIS AFTRN ACROSS THE WATERS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER THE RIVERS AND CURRITUCK SOUND TO SLOWLY DMNSH NXT
FEW HRS...SO SCA WILL CONTINUE THRU 7 PM THERE....10 PM FOR LWR JAMES
IVOF ORF. SECONDARY SURGE NOTED IN MODELS KEEPS SCA HEADLINES FOR
CHES BAY / CSTL WTRS INTO WED MORNING. 25-30 KT GUSTS PSBL AS WELL.

HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE AREA WED AFTRN THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE WED
NITE AND THURSDAY. THIS RESULTS IN DMNSH WINDS AND IMPROVING SEAS.
THUS...SCA`S WILL GRADUALLY END WED...LATEST OVR COASTAL WATERS
WHERE IT MAY TAKE SEAS A FEW HRS LONGER TO DROP BLO 5 FT. SE FLOW
BECOMES S THEN SW AS BY FRI AS RETURN FLOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF ON
BACK SODE OF RETREATING HIGH.

NEXT FRNT PROGGED ACROSS THE RGN FRI NIGHT WITH A SECONDARY TROF
CROSSING THE WATERS SAT. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS
THROUGH SAT...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER WEAKER NW SURGE IS PSBL SAT AFTRN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS (MIN RH VALUES 15-25%) WILL OCCUR AGAIN ON
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY. THIS WILL
PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR ANY RED FLAG WARNINGS OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
NW WINDS DO INCREASE TO AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS 20-25 MPH DURING
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HOURS ON THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE.
GIVEN HOW LOW RH VALUES WILL BE THURS AFTN COUPLED WITH LOW FUEL
MOISTURE CONDITIONS...HAVE OPTED FOR AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT FOR OUR MD COUNTIES...AFTER COORDINATION WITH MD FIRE
OFFICIALS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM
NEAR TERM...JDM/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...MPR
FIRE WEATHER...JDM







000
FXUS61 KRNK 231948
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
348 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
PASSING OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

MAINLY A TEMP FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE UPPER
TROUGH DEPARTS OVERNIGHT AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE COOL SURFACE HIGH TO SLIDE SE ACROSS
THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND THEN TO THE COAST ON THURSDAY. THIS
WILL KEEP VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE BUT ALLOW FOR DIMINISHING WINDS
TONIGHT AND THE ONSET OF WEAK SW FLOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
RIDGE DEPARTS. MAY START TO SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS RETURN FROM THE
WEST LATER THURSDAY OTRW CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND MAINLY SUNNY
THURSDAY.

MAIN CONCERN WITH LOW TEMPS TONIGHT GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN LOW AND
WINDS GO LIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES. THIS WOULD SUPPORT VALUES GOING
BELOW FREEZING MOUNTAINS...WITH SOME 20S VALLEYS...AND WELL INTO
THE 30S OUT EAST WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS STARTED. HOWEVER
SIMILAR TO TEMPS A FEW NIGHTS BACK...DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS LOOK
QUITE LARGE GIVEN DRY AIR WHICH WONT SUPPORT MUCH FROST OUTSIDE
THE BOTTOMS/LOW SPOTS...WHILE COLDEST VALUES WILL BE BRIEF NEAR
DAWN PENDING HOW FAR WINDS DECOUPLE. THUS AFTER COORDINATION WITH
SURROUNDING SITES...HAVE OPTED OUT OF A FROST ADVISORY FOR NOW
WHILE INCREASING THE PATCHY COVERAGE EAST LATE WITH LOWS MAINLY
MID/UPPER 30S. SHOULD QUICKLY RECOVER ON THURSDAY PER 85H WARMING
AND WEAK SW FLOW AIDED BY HEATING OF DRY AIR WHICH WILL PUSH MOST
INTO THE 60S IF NOT LOW 70S IN SPOTS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

SHORT WAVE COMING OUT OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL CROSS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT...REACHING THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTY WARNING AREA AROUND 12Z/8AM FRIDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE
WEAKENS AS IT CROSSES THE AREA. THE CORRESPONDING SURFACE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

WILL SPEED UP ARRIVAL TIME OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY MORNING. WITH
THIS TIMING...APPEARS THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE
MAINTAINED A LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTY
WARNING AREA AS A SECONDARY FRONT COMES IN FROM THE NORTH ON
SATURDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

A MORE PRONOUNCED PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL COME IN BEHIND A FRONT ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND WILL
KEEP THE WINDS FROM THE EAST ON SUNDAY. HAVE KEPT SUNDAY MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES BELOW GUIDANCE WITH THE EXPECTED EAST COMPONENT OF
THE WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER.

THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME.
WILL HAVE AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THEN A CLOSED LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY WITH
BROAD FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. MOISTURE WILL LIFT OVER THE
STALLED BOUNDARY IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON MONDAY. MODELS WERE
OFFERING DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE ECMWF MUCH FARTHER NORTH AND WEST
THAN THE GFS.

WPC WAS LEANING TOWARD A TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. WITH OVERALL SOUTHWEST FLOW AND THE FRONT REMAINING TO
THE WEST UNTIL WEDNESDAY...HAVE TRENDED TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES
FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1255 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NW WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SUSTAINED 12-17 KTS INCLUDING
GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT
WITH RETURN OF LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES OVERHEAD AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS
MOVE EAST WITH THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH VFR EXPECTED UNDER GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS SUNDAY WITH FAIR DRY WEATHER. MOISTURE
WILL START TO RETURN NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AS A BOUNDARY LIFTS NE
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS WILL LIKELY
BRING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPCLY ON MONDAY.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE VIRGINIA BLUE RIDGE
NORTHWARD INTO NORTH CENTRAL VA FOR CONTINUED GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY. FIRE DANGER STATEMENT ELSW FOR INCREASED
FIRE DANGER WHERE WINDS WONT BE QUITE AS STRONG AND FUELS A BIT
WETTER.

OTRW WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 20 MPH SUSTAINED...WITH GUSTS OF
25 TO 30 MPH THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. HUMIDITY MINIMUMS NEAR
20 PERCENT WILL ALSO BE COMMON RESULTING IN CONTINUED MARGINAL RED
FLAG CRITERIA UNTIL AROUND SUNSET. IN ADDITION...IT HAS BEEN 7
DAYS SINCE MEASURABLE RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED IN ROANOKE VALLEY AND
THE IMMEDIATE BLUE RIDGE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE NEW RIVER AND
SHENANDOAH VALLEYS. THIS HAS ALLOWED LEAVES AND BRUSH TO BECOME
DRY AND VERY RECEPTIVE TO FIRE...10 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE DROPPING TO
AROUND 7 PERCENT OR LOWER.

CONCERN IS FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD IF A WILDFIRE OCCURS.

WINDS SHOULD FINALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS RECOVERING TO 70-80 PERCENT OR HIGHER AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER ON THURSDAY AND GRADUALLY
TURN MORE SW UNDER 10 MPH. HOWEVER RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL AGAIN
DROP WITH HEATING DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH LEVELS LIKELY DROPPING
TO BELOW 25-30 PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. A COLD FRONT MAY
BRING SOME WETTING RAIN IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS DURING FRIDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ007-
     009>020-022>024-032>035-047.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/PM
FIRE WEATHER...JH/PM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 231943
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
343 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLIDES OVER THE REGION INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...LOCATING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A
SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE EXCEPTION IS
THE ERN SHORE WHERE TEMPS HAVE ONLY WARMED INTO THE LOW 60S. UPPER
TROUGH AXIS HAS SHIFTED OFFSHORE PER LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AND DECREASING NW
WINDS. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA...ANOTHER
ROUND OF CAA OVERNIGHT WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S
INLAND AND INTO THE LOW 40S NEAR THE COAST. WINDS WILL NOT
COMPLETELY DE-COUPLE TONIGHT...RANGING FROM 5-10 MPH INLAND TO 10
TO 15 NEAR THE COAST. COMBINE LIGHT MIXING WITH RATHER DRY GROUND
CONDITIONS AND LOW DEWPOINTS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD FROST
AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF GRIDS. HOWEVER...PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE IN
SHELTERED LOCALES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OFF THE SE COAST THURS AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ERN CONUS. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL DE-AMPLIFY AND EJECT NEWD INTO THE PLAINS
THURS...PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO THE MS VALLEY. FLOW
RETURNS TO THE SOUTH LATE THURS-THURS NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
OVER THE REGION. MID-LEVEL WLY FLOW OVER THE GULF STATES INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC WILL PREVENT MUCH OF A MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE
REGION....SO DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. NWLY WINDS WILL NOT BE
AS STRONG THURS AFTERNOON...BUT MIN RH VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS-
LOW 20S AND DRY FUELS WILL AGAIN RESULT IN POTENTIAL FIRE WX
CONCERNS. PLEASE REFER TO FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

RIDGE AXIS PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI MORNING AS THE UPPER WAVE REACHES
THE OH VALLEY. QUESTIONS STILL EXIST ON STRENGTH OF THE UPPER WAVE
AS IT CROSSES THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRI AFTERNOON...WITH THE
LATEST GFS TRENDING SHARPER THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUNS AND COMING
MORE IN LINE WITH ITS NAM/ECMWF COUNTERPARTS. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON-EVENING. SHORT LIVED LOW-LEVEL SW
FLOW WILL BE ABLE TO ADVECT MODEST PRECIP WATER VALUES OF 1-1.25
INCHES INTO THE REGION...BUT DEWPOINTS ONLY PROGGED TO WARM INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 FRI. WITH THE LOCAL AREA IN THE WARM
SECTOR FRI...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
(DEPENDING ON FRONTAL TIMING). COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPS AND
THETA-E ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
(MLCAPE <500 J/KG)...MOSTLY OVER ERN VA/NERN NC. ALSO...LITTLE
INSTABILITY/LIFT PROGGED IN THE MIXED PHASE LAYER SO ANTICIPATE
ONLY ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER IN CONVECTION. JUST LIKE
YESTERDAYS FRONT...BIGGEST LIMITATIONS ARE WSW FLOW AND LOW
DEWPOINTS. SHEAR IS ALSO MARGINAL (~30-35 KT) SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION ALONG THE WEAKLY FORCED FRONT. WITH THAT
SAID...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS OVER THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON
ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT. QPF AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN
ONE TO TWO TENTHS.

FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT AS A SECONDARY DRY COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES APPROACHES FROM
THE NW. BREEZY WLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW SAT AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES WILL RESULT IN DAYTIME TEMPS AROUND 80 DEGS MOST
LOCALES...EVEN BEHIND FRIDAYS FRONT. NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE AND
MEASURABLE PRECIP FORECAST TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA LATE
SAT-SAT EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY PATTERN OVER
THE CONUS NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN AN INCREASINGLY WET PERIOD.

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THIS BLOCKY FLOW...MAINLY IN
LOCATION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO BE DRAPPED ACROSS THE RGN
ALONG WITH TIMING OF SEVERAL BATCHES OF MSTR PROGGED TO ROTATE NE
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH. WHAT TODAYS MODELS SHOW DIFFERENT FROM YSTRDYS
IS A SLOWER START TO THE PCPN MON...SOMEWHAT HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR
AN EXTNDD PRD OF WETNESS FROM MON NITE THRU WED ALONG WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT WILL LIKELY PLAY HAVOC WITH TEMPS.

KEPT SUN DRY / SEASONABLE AS H5 RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. WARM
FRONT APPRCHS THE RGN FROM THE SW SUN NIGHT...BUT GUID SUGGESTS ANY
MOISTURE STAYS W OF FA THRU 12Z MON. LOWS SAT / SUN NIGHTS IN THE
M40S-L50S. HIGHS SUN 70-75 WEST OF THE BAY...M-U60S ALONG THE COAST.

FORECAST RATHER PROBLEMATIC NEXT WEEK AS THE MODELS DIFFER ON WHERE
THIS FRONTAL BNDRY SETS UP. THIS WILL LIKELY DETERMINE TMPS AND PCPN
TYPES (CONVECTIVE VS STRATIFORMED RAIN). UPR LVL LOW PROGGED TO
SLOWLY EJECT EAST FROM THE NATIONS MID SECTION MON NIGHT ONLY TO THE
OHIO VLLY BY WED. A MOIST E-SE FLOW WILL LIKELY ADD TO THE MOISTURE
CONTENT RESULTING IN PERIODIC CHCS FOR PCPN THRU THE PRD. FRNTL
BNDRY MAY ALSO TRY TO MAKE A RUN FARTHER NORTH BY WED AS SFC LOW
BEGINS TO CROSS THE MTS. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH
ALL THIS OUT TO SEA...BUT THAT MIGHT NOT BE UNTIL THURSDAY. UPSHOT
WILL CARRY HIGH CHC POPS (SHWRS) MON THROUGH WED. TMPS COOLEST
(L-M60S) ALONG THE COAST DUE TO AN ONSHORE FLOW. HIGHS U60S-L70S
WEST OF THE BAY. LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH FARTHER OFF SHORE...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE WNW-NW
WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE CLOSE TO 20G30KT BEFORE TAPERING OFF DURING
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. NW WIND SPEEDS BRIEFLY INCREASE
THU MORNING AND THEN DROP OFF THROUGH THE AFTN AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA AND BECOMES LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
BY THU EVENING.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION THU NIGHT...CAUSING NW
WINDS TO BACK AROUND TO THE S-SE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRI EVENING...BRINGING SHOWERS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO AREA TAF SITES. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NLY AROUND 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
MIXING STILL PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS LATE THIS AFTRN ACROSS THE WATERS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER THE RIVERS AND CURRITUCK SOUND TO SLOWLY DMNSH NXT
FEW HRS...SO SCA WILL CONTINUE THRU 7 PM THERE....10 PM FOR LWR JAMES
IVOF ORF. SECONDARY SURGE NOTED IN MODELS KEEPS SCA HEADLINES FOR
CHES BAY / CSTL WTRS INTO WED MORNING. 25-30 KT GUSTS PSBL AS WELL.

HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE AREA WED AFTRN THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE WED
NITE AND THURSDAY. THIS RESULTS IN DMNSH WINDS AND IMPROVING SEAS.
THUS...SCA`S WILL GRADUALLY END WED...LATEST OVR COASTAL WATERS
WHERE IT MAY TAKE SEAS A FEW HRS LONGER TO DROP BLO 5 FT. SE FLOW
BECOMES S THEN SW AS BY FRI AS RETURN FLOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF ON
BACK SODE OF RETREATING HIGH.

NEXT FRNT PROGGED ACROSS THE RGN FRI NIGHT WITH A SECONDARY TROF
CROSSING THE WATERS SAT. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS
THROUGH SAT...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER WEAKER NW SURGE IS PSBL SAT AFTRN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT LATE THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL 8PM
FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VA (MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
RIC METRO AREA) AS WELL AS THE LOWER MD EASTER SHORE FOR DRY AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS. WINDS OF 15 TO 20 WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH OVER
INTERIOR VA...WITH WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH
OVER THE ERN SHORE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SPS FOR
INCREASED FIRE DANGER OVER THE SOUTH CONTINUES THROUGH 8 PM AS
WELL WITH WINDS 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 MPH.

DRY CONDITIONS (MIN RH VALUES 15-22%) WILL OCCUR AGAIN ON
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE BELOW CRITERIA. THIS WILL PRECLUDE
THE NEED FOR ANY FIRE WX WATCHES/WARNINGS OVER OUR AREA...EXCEPT
FOR THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE WHERE WINDS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED.
HOWEVER...ANYONE PLANNING/INVOLVED IN OUTDOOR BURNING ACTIVITIES
SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION. WILL THEREFORE MENTION
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS FOR TOMORROW IN THE HWO/FWF.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ012>017-030>032.
VA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ048-049-
     061>064-068>078-081>086-089>091-094-099-100.
     INCREASED FIRE DANGER UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ060-
     065>067-079-080-087-088-092-093-095>098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM/SAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...BMD/DAP
MARINE...MPR
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KLWX 231902
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
302 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD SUNDAY AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS TO OUR SOUTH. WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY...BRINGING
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE AREA NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AT 18Z...A 1025 MB SFC HIGH IS POSITIONED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/
GREAT LAKES WHILE A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A 995 MB SFC LOW NEAR
THE GULF OF MAINE STRETCHES SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SERN ATLANTIC
COAST. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE THRU SUNSET AS A RESULT OF A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES. MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT OF 60F THIS
AFTN ACROSS NRN VA...ERN WV AND WRN/CENTRAL MD DUE TO CAA AND
STRATOCU THAT HAS BEEN STUBBORN TO ERODE. EXPECT CLOUDS TO DIMINISH
FROM S TO N THRU SUNSET AS SUBSIDENCE STRENGTHENS WHILE THE LOW
PULLS AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST.

HIPRES CONTINUES TO BUILD EWD TNGT WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS REACHING THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE TNGT. WINDS WILL RELAX AFTER SUNSET AND
BECOME LGT ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. DESPITE FCST MIN TEMPS
IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THE WRN AND NRN SUBURBS OF DC/BALTIMORE...
WINDS AND DRY AIRMASS SHOULD INHIBIT FROST FORMATION. PATCHY FROST
POSSIBLE TOWARD THE CENTRAL FOOTHILLS...WHERE THE GROWING SEASON IS
ACTIVE.

HIPRES MOVES OVERHEAD ON THU. THERE IS STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
CONCERNING HOW QUICKLY THE HIGH MOVES IN WHICH WILL PLAY A FACTOR IN
HOW STRONG THE WINDS ARE IN NORTH-CENTRAL MD. THE 12Z GFS WAS
PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH WITH THIS SYSTEM THAT WINDS ARE LGT ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA ALL DAY WHILE THE SLOWER NAM KEEPS WINDS OF 15-25 MPH
TOWARD THE GREATER BALTIMORE METRO. UNDER FULL SUNSHINE...MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA
EXCEPT FOR COOLER SPOTS NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE AND IN THE MTS.

HIPRES MOVES OFFSHORE THU NGT. SLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AND CLOUDS
SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOPRES SYSTEM THAT WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. OVERRUNNING SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE
DOORSTEP OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT TOWARD DAYBREAK FRI MRNG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS MTNS
FRIDAY MORNING AS A SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. RETURN
FLOW WILL BE USHERING IN WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE AROUND 1.3 INCHES BY FRI
AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL FORCING ALONG THE SFC FROPA WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD AND ALONG THE FROPA. SFC HEATING IN
CENTRAL VA WILL LIKELY LEAD TO HEAVIER SHOWERS AND EVEN A ISO
THUNDERSTORM.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRYING WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FROPA
SATURDAY NIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL ROTATE AROUND THE GREAT
LAKES LOW AND MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON
THE SPEED OF THE FROPA TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S TO THE MID 70S
ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS TIME KEPT TEMPS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
AND VALLEY LOCATIONS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. IF THE FROPA MOVES
FASTER TEMPS WILL BE LOWER. LITTLE QPF IF ANY IS EXPECTED WITH
THE FROPA. LEANED TOWARDS THE GFS AND PUT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND NW SUBURBS OF DC AND BALTIMORE SATURDAY
DUE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND LEAD TO
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ANCHOR ITSELF OVER NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A LARGE AND SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE
OVER THE GREAT PLAINS.

CLOUDS WILL SPILL OVER THE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...STARTING
AS THIN HIGH CIRRUS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BUT LOWERING AND
THICKENING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. CHANCES FOR RAIN GRADUALLY
INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO MOISTEN.

LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING AND EXTENT OF RAINFALL...AS WELL AS THE TRACK OF
LOW PRESSURE AND THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF A DEVELOPING WARM
FRONT OVER THE CAROLINAS. THIS IS DUE TO A VERY COMPLEX
PATTERN...WITH A STRONG CUTOFF LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
INTERACTING WITH THE LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES...AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PINCHED IN BETWEEN OVER NEW
ENGLAND. THEREFORE...THERE IS A HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY IN DETAILS
SUCH AS THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...WINDS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF LOW PRESSURE...UNSETTLED WEATHER COULD
LINGER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BREEZY NW WINDS WINDS 15-20 KT WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO AROUND 30 KT
THRU 22Z. WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS EVE PARTICULARLY AFTER
SUNSET. CU FIELD AROUND 5 KFT QUICKLY DISSIPATING THIS AFTN. NW
WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT TNGT...BECOMING LGT TOWARD DAYBREAK AT CHO/MRB
AS HIPRES SHIFTS OVERHEAD. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WIND FIELD
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN FROM WEST TO EAST ON THU WITH THE HIGH MOVING
OVERHEAD. NW WINDS NEAR 15 KT STILL EXPECTED AT BWI/MTN. LGT SLY
WINDS DEVELOP THU NGT ONCE HIPRES PROGRESSES OFFSHORE.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC. VCTS IS POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL VA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. SLY WINDS WILL BECOME W-NW BEHIND THE FROPA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY. GUSTS UP TO 30KTS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15
KNOTS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST MARINE OBS INDICATE HIGH-END SCA OCCURRING AREA WIDE. OPTED
TO KEEP THE GALE WARNING GOING WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN THE LOW TO
MID 30S STILL BEING OBSERVED. WINDS SUBSIDE A BIT AFTER SUNSET BUT
NW WINDS 15-25 KT SHOULD STILL CONTINUE TNGT. SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THU BUT CONDITIONS MORE MARGINAL. SCA MAY BE ABLE TO BE
CANCELLED A FEW HRS EARLY ON THU DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE AXIS
OF THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

SLY WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. SCA
MAY BE NEEDED AS GUSTS INCREASE IN THE LOWER BAY AND LOWER TIDAL
POTOMAC. WINDS WILL BECOME WRLY BEFORE ANOTHER FROPA CROSS THE
WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NW WINDS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND A GALE WARNING IS EVEN POSSIBLE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS MAY LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND
INTO SUNDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS. WINDS BECOME LIGHTER LATE
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES NEAR THE REGION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THRU 8 PM.
CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPS DOWN AND RH UP SO FAR ACROSS THE NRN
VA...ERN WV AND NRN MD WHERE NW WINDS OF 20-25 MPH HAVE BEEN
GUSTING TO 35 MPH. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ERODE THOUGH AND RH IS NOW
IN THE 30S SO WILL KEEP THE RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT. FARTHER
SOUTH IN CENTRAL VA...RH HAS DROPPED BELOW 30 PERCENT BUT WINDS
ARE GENERALLY AROUND 15 MPH. AFTER COORDINATING WITH VA STATE FIRE
OFFICIALS...WILL ALSO KEEP RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT. WINDS
SUBSIDE TOWARD SUNSET AND RH VALUES WILL INCREASE ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS.

DRIER AIR WILL CAUSE EVEN LOWER RH VALUES THURSDAY...BUT WINDS
WILL NOT BE AS STRONG. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND WHERE THE WINDS WILL
BE STRONGEST.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DCZ001.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR DCZ001.
MD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ003>007-
     009>011-013-014-016>018-502.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MDZ004>007-009>011-013-014-018.
VA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ025>031-
     036>040-042-050>057-501-502-504.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR VAZ054.
WV...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ050>053-
     055-502-504-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JRK
NEAR TERM...JRK
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...JRK/HAS/DFH
MARINE...JRK/HAS/DFH
FIRE WEATHER...JRK








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 231821
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
221 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH HAS LOCATED OVER THE LOCAL AREA PER
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED
WELL OFFSHORE AS MODIFYING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE A DRY...BREEZY AND
COOL DAY OVER THE LOCAL AREA.

FOR TODAY...SFC LOW WILL PUSH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH AND EAST. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
RATHER STRONG OVER THE REGION...RESULTING IN SUSTAINED NW WINDS OF
15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. STRONGER WINDS NEAR THE BAY
AND OVER THE ERN SHORE WITH SPEEDS 20 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS TO 35
MPH. COMBINATION OF BREEZY CONDITIONS AND LOW RH WILL RESULT IN A
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION. REMNANT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
GOOD MIXING/STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN SOME
AFTERNOON CU...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN LOCAL AREA AND ERN SHORE
WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL HAVE LESS OF AN IMPACT. NW FLOW...CAA
WILL RESULT IN TEMPS WARMING INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S...EVEN ALONG
THE COASTAL WATERS THANKS TO NW WINDS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
ERN SHORE WHERE TEMPS ONLY EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE LOW 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT CHILLY EARLY
MORNING LOWS THU MORNING IN THE MID-UPPER 30S ALONG/W OF I-95 TO
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE UNDER CLEAR SKIES. DO NOT
EXPECT ANY FREEZE ISSUES AND PROBABLY TOO DRY FOR MUCH MORE THAN
SOME PATCHY FROST IN SHELTERED LOCALES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DRY AGAIN ONCE AGAIN THU AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE
NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC REGION, BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD ERY FRIDAY. HIGHS THURS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S (A
LITTLE COOLER NEAR THE COAST). ONCE AGAIN, MIN RH VALUES FALL INTO
THE 20S THU AFTN BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER. NEXT FAST MOVING WAVE
OF MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE PLAINS ON FRI. GFS REMAINS FASTER
WITH BRINGING SYSTEM THROUGH, WITH THE NAM/ECMWF A BIT SHARPER
WITH THE UPPER WAVE...AND HENCE A BIT SLOWER. PUSHED BACK ONSET OF
POP JUST SLIGHTLY AND CONTINUED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THESE STILL DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS. GIVEN THIS, EXPECT A SCENARIO
NOT UNLIKE THAT OF EARLIER YESTERDAY (TUESDAY); RATHER MEAGER
INSTABILITY WITH MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR/LAPSE RATES THAT RESULT
IN SOME WEAK DISORGANIZED CONVECTION LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY. WILL
KEEP CHC POPS ALL ZONES FOR SCT SHRAS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM
PUSHING THROUGH AT SOME POINT IN THE AFTN/EVENING. WARMER SSW
FLOW SHOULD PUSH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 8O.

CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH POPS QUICKLY ENDING
WEST TO EAST. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 ALONG AREA
COASTLINES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO EVOLVE INTO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS DURING THE EXTENDED...LIKELY RESULTING IN A
COOL/WET PERIOD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TENDS TO STRUGGLE WITH BLOCKY FLOW...AND THIS
IS NO EXCEPTION. TRENDED TOWARD ENSEMBLE AND WPC GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH
OUT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. OVERALL...UPPER PATTERN WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS...HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE GULF STATES INTO THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES
AND ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OVER SE CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND. WHILE
MEANINGFUL DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE MODELS...A SECOND (DRY) COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON SAT. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING COOLER/DRIER AIR TO THE REGION ON SUN. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
WILL THEN SET UP OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION (DEPENDING ON THE
MODEL IT COULD BE FROM THE CAROLINAS NWD TO THE MASON DIXON LINE).
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF PRECIP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL
PROGRESS EWD SUN-TUES...TAPPING INTO GULF MOISTURE. WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUN NIGHT-TUES BASED ON UNCERTAINTY...BUT
INCREASE TO LOW-END CHANCE POPS TUES NIGHT AS THE UPPER/SFC LOW GETS
CLOSER.

HAVE TRENDED TO THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE MID-UPPER 60S SUN-TUES. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH FARTHER OFF SHORE...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE WNW-NW
WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE CLOSE TO 20G30KT BEFORE TAPERING OFF DURING
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. NW WIND SPEEDS BRIEFLY INCREASE
THU MORNING AND THEN DROP OFF THROUGH THE AFTN AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA AND BECOMES LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
BY THU EVENING.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION THU NIGHT...CAUSING NW
WINDS TO BACK AROUND TO THE S-SE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRI EVENING...BRINGING SHOWERS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO AREA TAF SITES. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NLY AROUND 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
A SFC COLD FRONT IS JUST STARTING TO TRACK ACROSS THE WATERS FROM
NW TO SE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE
COAST BY SUNRISE. JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG SCA WINDS WILL
OCCUR DUE TO A DECENT SURGE OF COLD AIR FLOWING IN FROM THE NW. AS
A RESULT...NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
30 KT EARLY THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF TODAY
BEFORE TAPERING OFF TONIGHT. THE NW WIND DIRECTION WILL GENERALLY
PREVENT SEAS FROM BUILDING ANY HIGHER THAN 5-6 FT...WITH 3-4 FT
WAVES ON THE BAY (LOCALLY UP TO 5 FT SRN BAY AROUND SUNRISE WITH
THE INITIAL PUSH OF COLD AIR) AND 2-3 FT NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE
RIVERS. A SECONDARY...ALBEIT WEAKER...COLD AIR SURGE IS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP NW WINDS ON THE BAY/OCEAN TO STAY
AROUND 20-25 KT OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT NRN COASTAL
WATERS. SCA FLAGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR AREA WATERS. PLEASE
REFER TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/WAKEFIELD OR MWWAKQ FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE ON THU AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS. NW WIND SPEEDS AND SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL BELOW
SCA THRESHOLDS BY THU AFTN (AOB 15 KT CHES BAY/AOB 25 KT AND SEAS
BELOW 5 FT)...HOWEVER OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE SOMEWHAT
BREEZY DURING THE DAY BEFORE FINALLY DIMINISHING BY EARLY THU
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THU NIGHT AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. THIS WILL CAUSE NW WINDS
TO BACK AROUND TO THE S-SE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
WATERS FRI EVENING...BRINGING SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE NLY AROUND 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND AND WAVES/SEAS WILL AVERAGE 1-2 FT/2-3 FT RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY...AND IN COORDINATION WITH STATE
FIRE OFFICIALS/NEIGHBORING FORECAST OFFICES...A RED FLAG WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VA (MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF RIC METRO AREA) AS WELL AS
THE LOWER MD EASTER SHORE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE STRONGEST
THIS AFTN (20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH) ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM FVX-PTB-LFI...AND THIS IS ESSENTIALLY THE WARNING AREA.
FARTHER SOUTH...WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG (10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 30 MPH)...SO HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE AN SPS FOR INCREASED FIRE
DANGER OVER THESE AREAS TO HIGHLIGHT DRYING FUELS.

DRY CONDITIONS (MIN RH VALUES 20-25%) WILL OCCUR AGAIN ON
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG. THIS
WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR ANY FIRE WX WATCHES/WARNINGS
OVER OUR AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE WHERE WINDS
MAY REMAIN ELEVATED. HOWEVER, ANYONE PLANNING/INVOLVED IN OUTDOOR
BURNING ACTIVITIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION. WILL
THEREFORE MENTION CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS FOR TOMORROW IN THE
HWO/FWF.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ012>017-030>032.
VA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ048-049-
     061>064-068>078-081>086-089>091-094-099-100.
     INCREASED FIRE DANGER UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ060-
     065>067-079-080-087-088-092-093-095>098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM/SAM
NEAR TERM...MAM/SAM
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...BMD/DAP
MARINE...BMD
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KRNK 231710
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
110 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD
QUICKLY EAST PASSING OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN WITH ONGOING COOL ADVECTION TO
PREVAIL INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE COLDEST AIR AT 85H PASSING
ACROSS THIS MORNING. THE AIR REMAINS VERY DRY PER ARID PWATS OFF
MORNING SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOULD MIX DOWN WITH HEATING AND THE
LINGERING NW JET ALOFT. THIS WILL ERODE ANY REMAINING LOW CLOUDS
OVER THE FAR NW BY MIDDAY ALLOWING FOR ABUNDANT SUNSHINE UNDER
GUSTY NW WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST HIGH TEMPS LOOK ON
TRACK WITH DOWNSLOPE WARMING OF DRY AIR AN OFFSET TO COOL
ADVECTION OUT EAST WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. COOL
POOL ALOFT UNDER STRONGER NW WINDS SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE WEST AT
OR BELOW 60 FOR THE MOST PART ESPCLY HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE 50-55
MOST LIKELY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 430 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

DEWPOINTS ARE ON THE WAY DOWN COURTESY OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
PASSED THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY...RESULTING IN BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

THE 1022MB SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY IS OF
CANADIAN ORIGIN...A COOL DRY CONTINENTAL AIRMASS. IN SPITE OF ITS
COOL NATURE...THE LATE APRIL SUN ANGLE SHOULD HELP BALANCE SOME
OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...YIELDING HIGHS IN THE 60S WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHICH MAY STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE
50 DEG F.

THIS COOL AIRMASS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A CRISP NIGHT TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...AND DECOUPLE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
ENTIRE CWA WILL DIP INTO THE 30S OVERNIGHT...LOWS RANGING FROM 30
DEGREES IN THE SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO THE MID/UPPER 30S IN
THE PIEDMONT. THIS ALSO SUGGESTS POSSIBILITY OF FROST...BUT BASED
ON THE DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS...DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S...LACK OF
MOISTURE MAY PROHIBIT MUCH FROST. ATTM WILL ADVERTISE PATCHY
FROST...BUT THINK THIS WILL ONLY OCCUR IN AREAS WHERE THE WINDS
COMPLETELY DECOUPLE AND THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PROMOTE
FROST...SUCH AS CREEK BOTTOMS...ETC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVER THE REGION AND OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST ON THURSDAY. BY THE AFTERNOON...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
FORECAST AREA. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH PREFRONTAL
SHOWERS ENTERING THE WEST BY SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. THESE SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...WILL MOVE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND EXIT THE AREA BY SUNSET. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH START/ENDING PRECIP TIMING WITH THE GFS A COUPLE
OF HOURS FAST AND THE ECM AN HOUR OR SO SLOWER. DESPITE THE
RAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON FRIDAY. NOT MUCH
COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 40S ACROSS
THE WEST AND LOWER 50S EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...

MODELS START TO BECOME DIVERGENT ON SATURDAY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE
IN TAKING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS FLIP-FLOPPED FROM ITS PREVIOUS FORECAST
SOLUTION...STALLING THE FRONT NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. THIS REMAINS
A LOW CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FORECAST BUT...IN EITHER CASE...BOTH
MODELS HAVE OUR AREA RELATIVELY DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT AS OUR NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS... BRINGING RAIN TO THE
AREA ON MONDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S FOR SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY...WITH RAIN BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S FOR MONDAY. THE OVERNIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT PERHAPS THE DEEPER VALLEY BOTTOMS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1255 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NW WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SUSTAINED 12-17 KTS INCLUDING
GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT
WITH RETURN OF LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES OVERHEAD AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS
MOVE EAST WITH THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH VFR EXPECTED UNDER GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS SUNDAY WITH FAIR DRY WEATHER. MOISTURE
WILL START TO RETURN NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AS A BOUNDARY LIFTS NE
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS WILL LIKELY
BRING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPCLY ON MONDAY.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 950 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THE VIRGINIA BLUE RIDGE NORTHWARD
INTO NORTH CENTRAL VA FOR STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY.
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT ELSW THIS AFTERNOON FOR INCREASED FIRE
DANGER WHERE WINDS WONT BE QUITE AS STRONG AND FUELS A BIT WETTER.
MOST CRITICAL AREA OUTSIDE THE RED FLAG HEADLINE WILL BE OVER THE
NW NC MOUNTAINS GIVEN THAT STRONGER WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST
WITH VERY LOW HUMIDITY. HOWEVER AFTER COORDINATION WITH NC
FORESTRY OFFICIALS WILL KEEP THE STATEMENT GOING GIVEN SLIGHTLY
HIGHER FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS IN THAT AREA.

OTRW WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 20 MPH SUSTAINED...WITH GUSTS OF
25 TO 30 MPH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HUMIDITY MINIMUMS NEAR 20
PERCENT WILL ALSO BE COMMON. IN ADDITION...IT HAS BEEN 7 DAYS
SINCE MEASURABLE RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED IN ROANOKE VALLEY AND THE
IMMEDIATE BLUE RIDGE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE NEW RIVER AND
SHENANDOAH VALLEYS. THIS HAS ALLOWED LEAVES AND BRUSH TO BECOME
DRY AND VERY RECEPTIVE TO FIRE...10 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE DROPPING
TO AROUND 7 PERCENT OR LOWER.

CONCERN IS FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD IF A WILDFIRE OCCURS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ007-
     009>020-022>024-032>035-047.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...JH/PM
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...JH/PM
FIRE WEATHER...JH/PM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 231500
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1100 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH HAS LOCATED OVER THE LOCAL AREA PER
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED
WELL OFFSHORE AS MODIFYING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE A DRY...BREEZY AND
COOL DAY OVER THE LOCAL AREA.

FOR TODAY...SFC LOW WILL PUSH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH AND EAST. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
RATHER STRONG OVER THE REGION...RESULTING IN SUSTAINED NW WINDS OF
15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. STRONGER WINDS NEAR THE BAY
AND OVER THE ERN SHORE WITH SPEEDS 20 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS TO 35
MPH. COMBINATION OF BREEZY CONDITIONS AND LOW RH WILL RESULT IN A
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION. REMNANT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
GOOD MIXING/STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN SOME
AFTERNOON CU...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN LOCAL AREA AND ERN SHORE
WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL HAVE LESS OF AN IMPACT. NW FLOW...CAA
WILL RESULT IN TEMPS WARMING INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S...EVEN ALONG
THE COASTAL WATERS THANKS TO NW WINDS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
ERN SHORE WHERE TEMPS ONLY EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE LOW 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT CHILLY EARLY
MORNING LOWS THU MORNING IN THE MID-UPPER 30S ALONG/W OF I-95 TO
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE UNDER CLEAR SKIES. DO NOT
EXPECT ANY FREEZE ISSUES AND PROBABLY TOO DRY FOR MUCH MORE THAN
SOME PATCHY FROST IN SHELTERED LOCALES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DRY AGAIN ONCE AGAIN THU AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE
NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC REGION, BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD ERY FRIDAY. HIGHS THURS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S (A
LITTLE COOLER NEAR THE COAST). ONCE AGAIN, MIN RH VALUES FALL INTO
THE 20S THU AFTN BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER. NEXT FAST MOVING WAVE
OF MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE PLAINS ON FRI. GFS REMAINS FASTER
WITH BRINGING SYSTEM THROUGH, WITH THE NAM/ECMWF A BIT SHARPER
WITH THE UPPER WAVE...AND HENCE A BIT SLOWER. PUSHED BACK ONSET OF
POP JUST SLIGHTLY AND CONTINUED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THESE STILL DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS. GIVEN THIS, EXPECT A SCENARIO
NOT UNLIKE THAT OF EARLIER YESTERDAY (TUESDAY); RATHER MEAGER
INSTABILITY WITH MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR/LAPSE RATES THAT RESULT
IN SOME WEAK DISORGANIZED CONVECTION LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY. WILL
KEEP CHC POPS ALL ZONES FOR SCT SHRAS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM
PUSHING THROUGH AT SOME POINT IN THE AFTN/EVENING. WARMER SSW
FLOW SHOULD PUSH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 8O.

CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH POPS QUICKLY ENDING
WEST TO EAST. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 ALONG AREA
COASTLINES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO EVOLVE INTO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS DURING THE EXTENDED...LIKELY RESULTING IN A
COOL/WET PERIOD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TENDS TO STRUGGLE WITH BLOCKY FLOW...AND THIS
IS NO EXCEPTION. TRENDED TOWARD ENSEMBLE AND WPC GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH
OUT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. OVERALL...UPPER PATTERN WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS...HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE GULF STATES INTO THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES
AND ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OVER SE CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND. WHILE
MEANINGFUL DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE MODELS...A SECOND (DRY) COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON SAT. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING COOLER/DRIER AIR TO THE REGION ON SUN. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
WILL THEN SET UP OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION (DEPENDING ON THE
MODEL IT COULD BE FROM THE CAROLINAS NWD TO THE MASON DIXON LINE).
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF PRECIP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL
PROGRESS EWD SUN-TUES...TAPPING INTO GULF MOISTURE. WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUN NIGHT-TUES BASED ON UNCERTAINTY...BUT
INCREASE TO LOW-END CHANCE POPS TUES NIGHT AS THE UPPER/SFC LOW GETS
CLOSER.

HAVE TRENDED TO THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE MID-UPPER 60S SUN-TUES. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SFC COLD FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SRN NJ COAST
INTO THE NC PIEDMONT REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS QUICKLY TURN
TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT AND BECOME GUSTY DUE TO A DECENT SURGE
OF COLD AIR FLOWING IN FROM THE NW. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD AVERAGE
ABOUT 34015G25KT DURING THIS INITIAL PUSH OF COLDER AIR. AS THE
FRONT EXITS THE COAST SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE
WNW-NW WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE CLOSE TO 20G30KT FROM MID MORNING
THROUGH LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. NW WIND SPEEDS BRIEFLY INCREASE THU
MORNING AND THEN DROP OFF THROUGH THE AFTN AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
ACROSS THE AREA AND BECOMES LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY THU
EVENING. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION THU NIGHT...
CAUSING NW WINDS TO BACK AROUND TO THE S-SE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRI AFTN/EVENING...BRINGING
SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO AREA TAF SITES.
BEHIND THIS FRONT...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NLY AROUND 15 KT OR
LESS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
A SFC COLD FRONT IS JUST STARTING TO TRACK ACROSS THE WATERS FROM
NW TO SE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE
COAST BY SUNRISE. JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG SCA WINDS WILL
OCCUR DUE TO A DECENT SURGE OF COLD AIR FLOWING IN FROM THE NW. AS
A RESULT...NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
30 KT EARLY THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF TODAY
BEFORE TAPERING OFF TONIGHT. THE NW WIND DIRECTION WILL GENERALLY
PREVENT SEAS FROM BUILDING ANY HIGHER THAN 5-6 FT...WITH 3-4 FT
WAVES ON THE BAY (LOCALLY UP TO 5 FT SRN BAY AROUND SUNRISE WITH
THE INITIAL PUSH OF COLD AIR) AND 2-3 FT NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE
RIVERS. A SECONDARY...ALBEIT WEAKER...COLD AIR SURGE IS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP NW WINDS ON THE BAY/OCEAN TO STAY
AROUND 20-25 KT OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT NRN COASTAL
WATERS. SCA FLAGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR AREA WATERS. PLEASE
REFER TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/WAKEFIELD OR MWWAKQ FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE ON THU AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS. NW WIND SPEEDS AND SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL BELOW
SCA THRESHOLDS BY THU AFTN (AOB 15 KT CHES BAY/AOB 25 KT AND SEAS
BELOW 5 FT)...HOWEVER OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE SOMEWHAT
BREEZY DURING THE DAY BEFORE FINALLY DIMINISHING BY EARLY THU
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THU NIGHT AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. THIS WILL CAUSE NW WINDS
TO BACK AROUND TO THE S-SE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
WATERS FRI EVENING...BRINGING SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE NLY AROUND 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND AND WAVES/SEAS WILL AVERAGE 1-2 FT/2-3 FT RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY...AND IN COORDINATION WITH STATE
FIRE OFFICIALS/NEIGHBORING FORECAST OFFICES...A RED FLAG WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VA (MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF RIC METRO AREA) AS WELL AS
THE LOWER MD EASTER SHORE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE STRONGEST
THIS AFTN (20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH) ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM FVX-PTB-LFI...AND THIS IS ESSENTIALLY THE WARNING AREA.
FARTHER SOUTH...WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG (10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 30 MPH)...SO HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE AN SPS FOR INCREASED FIRE
DANGER OVER THESE AREAS TO HIGHLIGHT DRYING FUELS.

DRY CONDITIONS (MIN RH VALUES 20-25%) WILL OCCUR AGAIN ON
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG. THIS
WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR ANY FIRE WX WATCHES/WARNINGS
OVER OUR AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE WHERE WINDS
MAY REMAIN ELEVATED. HOWEVER, ANYONE PLANNING/INVOLVED IN OUTDOOR
BURNING ACTIVITIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION. WILL
THEREFORE MENTION CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS FOR TOMORROW IN THE
HWO/FWF.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ012>017-030>032.
VA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ048-049-
     061>064-068>078-081>086-089>091-094-099-100.
     INCREASED FIRE DANGER UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ060-
     065>067-079-080-087-088-092-093-095>098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM/SAM
NEAR TERM...MAM/SAM
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KRNK 231412
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1012 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD
QUICKLY EAST PASSING OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN WITH ONGOING COOL ADVECTION TO
PREVAIL INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE COLDEST AIR AT 85H PASSING
ACROSS THIS MORNING. THE AIR REMAINS VERY DRY PER ARID PWATS OFF
MORNING SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOULD MIX DOWN WITH HEATING AND THE
LINGERING NW JET ALOFT. THIS WILL ERODE ANY REMAINING LOW CLOUDS
OVER THE FAR NW BY MIDDAY ALLOWING FOR ABUNDANT SUNSHINE UNDER
GUSTY NW WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST HIGH TEMPS LOOK ON
TRACK WITH DOWNSLOPE WARMING OF DRY AIR AN OFFSET TO COOL
ADVECTION OUT EAST WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. COOL
POOL ALOFT UNDER STRONGER NW WINDS SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE WEST AT
OR BELOW 60 FOR THE MOST PART ESPCLY HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE 50-55
MOST LIKELY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 430 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

DEWPOINTS ARE ON THE WAY DOWN COURTESY OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
PASSED THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY...RESULTING IN BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

THE 1022MB SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY IS OF
CANADIAN ORIGIN...A COOL DRY CONTINENTAL AIRMASS. IN SPITE OF ITS
COOL NATURE...THE LATE APRIL SUN ANGLE SHOULD HELP BALANCE SOME
OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...YIELDING HIGHS IN THE 60S WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHICH MAY STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE
50 DEG F.

THIS COOL AIRMASS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A CRISP NIGHT TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...AND DECOUPLE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
ENTIRE CWA WILL DIP INTO THE 30S OVERNIGHT...LOWS RANGING FROM 30
DEGREES IN THE SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO THE MID/UPPER 30S IN
THE PIEDMONT. THIS ALSO SUGGESTS POSSIBILITY OF FROST...BUT BASED
ON THE DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS...DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S...LACK OF
MOISTURE MAY PROHIBIT MUCH FROST. ATTM WILL ADVERTISE PATCHY
FROST...BUT THINK THIS WILL ONLY OCCUR IN AREAS WHERE THE WINDS
COMPLETELY DECOUPLE AND THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PROMOTE
FROST...SUCH AS CREEK BOTTOMS...ETC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVER THE REGION AND OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST ON THURSDAY. BY THE AFTERNOON...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
FORECAST AREA. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH PREFRONTAL
SHOWERS ENTERING THE WEST BY SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. THESE SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...WILL MOVE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND EXIT THE AREA BY SUNSET. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH START/ENDING PRECIP TIMING WITH THE GFS A COUPLE
OF HOURS FAST AND THE ECM AN HOUR OR SO SLOWER. DESPITE THE
RAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON FRIDAY. NOT MUCH
COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 40S ACROSS
THE WEST AND LOWER 50S EAST.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...

MODELS START TO BECOME DIVERGENT ON SATURDAY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE
IN TAKING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS FLIP-FLOPPED FROM ITS PREVIOUS FORECAST
SOLUTION...STALLING THE FRONT NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. THIS REMAINS
A LOW CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FORECAST BUT...IN EITHER CASE...BOTH
MODELS HAVE OUR AREA RELATIVELY DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT AS OUR NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS... BRINGING RAIN TO THE
AREA ON MONDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S FOR SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY...WITH RAIN BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S FOR MONDAY. THE OVERNIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT PERHAPS THE DEEPER VALLEY BOTTOMS.
&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 800 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

ASIDE FOR SOME SCT-BKN LOW CLOUD ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS IMPACTING BLF/LWB THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PD. WINDS TODAY WILL BE
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...SUSTAINED 12-18KTS WITH GUSTS OF 22-28KTS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH RETURN OF LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVHD AND OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS
MOVE EAST WITH THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH VFR EXPECTED UNDER GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE PASSING OVHD SUNDAY WITH FAIR DRY WEATHER.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 950 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THE VIRGINIA BLUE RIDGE NORTHWARD
INTO NORTH CENTRAL VA FOR STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY.
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT ELSW THIS AFTERNOON FOR INCREASED FIRE
DANGER WHERE WINDS WONT BE QUITE AS STRONG AND FUELS A BIT WETTER.
MOST CRITICAL AREA OUTSIDE THE RED FLAG HEADLINE WILL BE OVER THE
NW NC MOUNTAINS GIVEN THAT STRONGER WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST
WITH VERY LOW HUMIDITY. HOWEVER AFTER COORDINATION WITH NC
FORESTRY OFFICIALS WILL KEEP THE STATEMENT GOING GIVEN SLIGHTLY
HIGHER FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS IN THAT AREA.

OTRW WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 20 MPH SUSTAINED...WITH GUSTS OF
25 TO 30 MPH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HUMIDITY MINIMUMS NEAR 20
PERCENT WILL ALSO BE COMMON. IN ADDITION...IT HAS BEEN 7 DAYS
SINCE MEASURABLE RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED IN ROANOKE VALLEY AND THE
IMMEDIATE BLUE RIDGE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE NEW RIVER AND
SHENANDOAH VALLEYS. THIS HAS ALLOWED LEAVES AND BRUSH TO BECOME
DRY AND VERY RECEPTIVE TO FIRE...10 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE DROPPING
TO AROUND 7 PERCENT OR LOWER.

CONCERN IS FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD IF A WILDFIRE OCCURS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ007-
     009>020-022>024-032>035-047.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...JH/PM
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...PM
FIRE WEATHER...JH/PM




000
FXUS61 KLWX 231351
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
951 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AND ANOTHER COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVERHEAD SUNDAY AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS TO OUR SOUTH. WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY...BRINGING
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE AREA NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1023 MB SFC HIGH LOCATED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES WHILE A
COLD FRONT STETCHES FROM A 995 MB SFC LOW OVER MAINE SOUTHWESTWARD
TOWARD THE SERN ATLANTIC COAST. A RELATIVELY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL RESULT IN A BREEZY DAY. STRONG
CAA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW HAS RESULTED IN A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER UP TO 800 MB AS SEEN ON THE 12Z IAD RAOB SOUNDING. ACCORDINGLY
WINDS WILL PICK UP QUICKLY THIS MRNG...RESULTING IN GUSTS OF 30-40
MPH FOR MUCH OF TDA.

CAA PATTERN HAS PRODUCED STRATOCU AS MOISTURE AT THE TOP OF THE
MIXED LAYER IS TRAPPED BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION FIELD. UPDATED
SKY COVER FCST GRIDS USING THE RH FIELD AT THE TOP OF THE MIXING
LAYER FROM THE RAP TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EVOLUTION OF STRATOCU TDA.
PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF THE CWA THIS MRNG BEFORE CLOUDS ERODE FROM S TO N INTO THE
AFTN. LOWERED MAX TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES NEAR THE MASON-DIXON
LINE TO THE UPPER 50S...WHERE CLOUD COVER MAY HOLD ON THE LONGEST.
OTHERWISE...OFFICIAL MAX TEMP FCST IN LOW TO MID 60S FALLS ON THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH STRONG HEATING AND DOWNSLOPING FLOW.

ONCE THE UPPER VORT COMPLETELY MOVES OFF THE COAST SLOWLY TNGT...
WINDS WILL DROP OFF OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE REGION. NERN MD
WILL REMAIN THE SOME OF THE BREEZIER CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT...
SINCE THE RIBBON OF UPPER VORTICITY WILL STILL BE HANGING OUT OVER
DELMARVA - VERY SLOWLY DRIFTING TOWARD THE COAST. A DAY`S WORTH OF
DRY AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP BACK DOWN AGAIN INTO THE M-U30S
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. A FEW AREAS OF THE CWA LIKE THE APLCNS AND
SHEN VLY WILL SEE TEMPS HOVERING AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY WHILE AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD DURING THIS TIME. PLENTY OF
SUBSIDENCE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SUNSHINE. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO...RANGING FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. SOME AREAS
ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND THE VALLEYS OF EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA
MAY REACH INTO THE 70S.

THE SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA...BUT PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY. MIN TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS TO
NEAR 50 IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY...BRINGING A FEW
SHOWERS WITH IT. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED SO ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH.

THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR DRY
CONDITIONS...BUT ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SO MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY. SATURDAY WILL TURN OUT
MILD AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY DUE TO A DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...BRINGING DRY AND
COOLER CONDITIONS.

CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST
NEXT WEEK. A WARM FRONT WILL STALL OUT NEAR THE REGION DURING THIS
TIME AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. CERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GUSTY NW WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN WX STORY TDA FOR THE AREA
TERMINALS. NW WINDS HAVE QUICKLY PICKED UP THIS MRNG WITH GUSTS
25-35 KT ALREADY BEING REPORTED AT 13Z. EXPECT GUSTS OF THIS
MAGNITUDE TO CONTINUE THRU AFTN BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TOWARD
SUNSET THIS EVE. BKN STRATOCU FIELD BETWEEN 4-5 KFT THIS MRNG WILL
IMPACT THE TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR CHO BEFORE ERODING FROM S TO N
THIS AFTN.NW WINDS AROUND 10 KT CONTINUES TNGT...WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER WINDS AT DCA-BWI-MTN.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS THURSDAY ACROSS
THE EASTERN TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ACROSS KMRB AND KCHO.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TERMINALS THURSDAY EVENING WILL SHIFT EAST
OVERNIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
DURING THIS TIME. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS
FRIDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS LIKELY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND IT WILL STALL OUT JUST TO THE SOUTH FOR SUNDAY. VFR
CONDITONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS HAS PRODUCED WIDESPREAD
20-30 KT WIND GUSTS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS TO 35 KT. GALE
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE WATERS TDA. MIXING WILL
DEEPEN EVEN FURTHER THIS AFTN BUT MODELS SHOW THE WIND FIELD
AT THE TOP OF THIS MIXING LAYER WEAKENING A BIT. MAY BE ABLE TO
CANCEL THE GALE WARNING A FEW HRS EARLY THIS AFTN WITH HIGH END
SCA WINDS FAVORED. SCA CONTINUES TNGT.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS THURSDAY. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH BY THURSDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
HOWEVER...THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL LIKELY PASS THROUGH THE WATERS SATURDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT
TO THE SOUTH FOR SUNDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING HAS REPLACED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR MUCH OF
THE MID ATLC REGION FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM TDA. NW WINDS OF 20-25 MPH
WILL GUST FREQUENTLY BETWEEN 35 AND 40 MPH. MRNG UPDATE TO THE
FCST KEEP MAX TEMPS AT OR EVEN A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW PREV FCST
BUT DEWPOINTS WERE ALSO LOWERED THIS AFTN AS DRIER AIR MIXES DOWN
TO THE SFC. PAST STUDIES HAVE SHOWN DEWPOINTS AT THE TOP OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TO BE REPRESENTATIVE OF SFC DEWPOINTS DURING THE
PEAK HEATINGS HRS IN SITUATIONS LIKE TDA. 12Z IAD RAOB SOUNDING
SHOWS DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. THIS WILL RESULT IN RH VALUES BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT
ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE AREA. FUEL MOISTURE OBS YDA WERE BETWEEN
5-8 PERCENT. ONLY LOCALIZED AREAS RECEIVED A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN
INCH OF RAINFALL YESTERDAY...WHICH WAS NOT ENOUGH TO ALTER THE
FUEL MOISTURE.

WINDS SUBSIDE TOWARD SUNSET AND RH VALUES WILL INCREASE ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

DRIER AIR WILL CAUSE EVEN LOWER RH VALUES THURSDAY...BUT WINDS
WILL NOT BE AS STRONG. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND WHERE THE WINDS WILL
BE STRONGEST.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY...BRINGING A FEW
SHOWERS BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY AVERAGE OUT TO BE LIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL CAUSE TIDAL BLOWOUT. THE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT NOT AS STRONG.
HOWEVER...TIDAL BLOWOUT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME
AS WELL.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DCZ001.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR DCZ001.
MD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ003>007-
     009>011-013-014-016>018-502.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MDZ004>007-009>011-013-014-018.
VA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ025>031-
     036>040-042-050>057-501-502-504.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR VAZ054.
WV...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ050>053-
     055-502-504-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL/JRK
NEAR TERM...JRK/GMS
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL/GMS
AVIATION...JRK/BJL
MARINE...JRK/BJL
FIRE WEATHER...JRK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JRK/BJL








000
FXUS61 KRNK 231146
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
746 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER EASTERN VIRGINIA WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
WILL QUICKLY BUILD EAST PASSING OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

DEWPOINTS ARE ON THE WAY DOWN COURTESY OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
PASSED THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY...RESULTING IN BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

THE 1022MB SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY IS OF
CANADIAN ORIGIN...A COOL DRY CONTINENTAL AIRMASS. IN SPITE OF ITS
COOL NATURE...THE LATE APRIL SUN ANGLE SHOULD HELP BALANCE SOME
OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...YIELDING HIGHS IN THE 60S WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHICH MAY STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE
50 DEG F.

THIS COOL AIRMASS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A CRISP NIGHT TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...AND DECOUPLE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
ENTIRE CWA WILL DIP INTO THE 30S OVERNIGHT...LOWS RANGING FROM 30
DEGREES IN THE SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO THE MID/UPPER 30S IN
THE PIEDMONT. THIS ALSO SUGGESTS POSSIBILITY OF FROST...BUT BASED
ON THE DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS...DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S...LACK OF
MOISTURE MAY PROHIBIT MUCH FROST. ATTM WILL ADVERTISE PATCHY
FROST...BUT THINK THIS WILL ONLY OCCUR IN AREAS WHERE THE WINDS
COMPLETELY DECOUPLE AND THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PROMOTE
FROST...SUCH AS CREEK BOTTOMS...ETC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVER THE REGION AND OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST ON THURSDAY. BY THE AFTERNOON...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
FORECAST AREA. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH PREFRONTAL
SHOWERS ENTERING THE WEST BY SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. THESE SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...WILL MOVE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND EXIT THE AREA BY SUNSET. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH START/ENDING PRECIP TIMING WITH THE GFS A COUPLE
OF HOURS FAST AND THE ECM AN HOUR OR SO SLOWER. DESPITE THE
RAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON FRIDAY. NOT MUCH
COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 40S ACROSS
THE WEST AND LOWER 50S EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...

MODELS START TO BECOME DIVERGENT ON SATURDAY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE
IN TAKING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS FLIP-FLOPPED FROM ITS PREVIOUS FORECAST
SOLUTION...STALLING THE FRONT NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. THIS REMAINS
A LOW CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FORECAST BUT...IN EITHER CASE...BOTH
MODELS HAVE OUR AREA RELATIVELY DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT AS OUR NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS... BRINGING RAIN TO THE
AREA ON MONDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S FOR SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY...WITH RAIN BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S FOR MONDAY. THE OVERNIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT PERHAPS THE DEEPER VALLEY BOTTOMS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 800 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

ASIDE FOR SOME SCT-BKN LOW CLOUD ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS IMPACTING BLF/LWB THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PD. WINDS TODAY WILL BE
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...SUSTAINED 12-18KTS WITH GUSTS OF 22-28KTS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH RETURN OF LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVHD AND OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS
MOVE EAST WITH THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH VFR EXPECTED UNDER GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE PASSING OVHD SUNDAY WITH FAIR DRY WEATHER.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THE VIRGINIA BLUE RIDGE NORTHWARD
INTO NORTH CENTRAL VA FOR STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY.
WINDS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 20 MPH SUSTAINED...WITH GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 MPH. HUMIDITY MINIMUMS NEAR 20 PERCENT WILL BE COMMON
THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...IT HAS BEEN 7 DAYS SINCE MEASURABLE
RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED IN ROANOKE VALLEY AND THE IMMEDIATE BLUE
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE NEW RIVER AND SHENANDOAH VALLEYS. THIS
HAS ALLOWED LEAVES AND BRUSH TO BECOME DRY AND VERY RECEPTIVE TO
FIRE...10 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE NEAR 7 PERCENT.

CONCERN TODAY IS FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD IF A WILDFIRE OCCURS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-047.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...PM
FIRE WEATHER...PM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 230844
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
444 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER EASTERN VIRGINIA WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
WILL QUICKLY BUILD EAST PASSING OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

DEWPOINTS ARE ON THE WAY DOWN COURTESY OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
PASSED THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY...RESULTING IN BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

THE 1022MB SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY IS OF
CANADIAN ORIGIN...A COOL DRY CONTINENTAL AIRMASS. IN SPITE OF ITS
COOL NATURE...THE LATE APRIL SUN ANGLE SHOULD HELP BALANCE SOME
OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...YIELDING HIGHS IN THE 60S WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHICH MAY STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE
50 DEG F.

THIS COOL AIRMASS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A CRISP NIGHT TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...AND DECOUPLE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
ENTIRE CWA WILL DIP INTO THE 30S OVERNIGHT...LOWS RANGING FROM 30
DEGREES IN THE SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO THE MID/UPPER 30S IN
THE PIEDMONT. THIS ALSO SUGGESTS POSSIBILITY OF FROST...BUT BASED
ON THE DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS...DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S...LACK OF
MOISTURE MAY PROHIBIT MUCH FROST. ATTM WILL ADVERTISE PATCHY
FROST...BUT THINK THIS WILL ONLY OCCUR IN AREAS WHERE THE WINDS
COMPLETELY DECOUPLE AND THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PROMOTE
FROST...SUCH AS CREEK BOTTOMS...ETC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVER THE REGION AND OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST ON THURSDAY. BY THE AFTERNOON...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
FORECAST AREA. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH PREFRONTAL
SHOWERS ENTERING THE WEST BY SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. THESE SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...WILL MOVE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND EXIT THE AREA BY SUNSET. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH START/ENDING PRECIP TIMING WITH THE GFS A COUPLE
OF HOURS FAST AND THE ECM AN HOUR OR SO SLOWER. DESPITE THE
RAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON FRIDAY. NOT MUCH
COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 40S ACROSS
THE WEST AND LOWER 50S EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...

MODELS START TO BECOME DIVERGENT ON SATURDAY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE
IN TAKING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS FLIP-FLOPPED FROM ITS PREVIOUS FORECAST
SOLUTION...STALLING THE FRONT NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. THIS REMAINS
A LOW CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FORECAST BUT...IN EITHER CASE...BOTH
MODELS HAVE OUR AREA RELATIVELY DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT AS OUR NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS... BRINGING RAIN TO THE
AREA ON MONDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S FOR SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY...WITH RAIN BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S FOR MONDAY. THE OVERNIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT PERHAPS THE DEEPER VALLEY BOTTOMS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. ASIDE
FOR SOME SCT MID CLOUD...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. BIGGEST BY-
PRODUCT OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE THE GUSTY SURFACE WINDS.
WINDS TODAY WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...SUSTAINED 12-18KTS WITH
GUSTS OF 22-28KTS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH RETURN OF
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVHD AND
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS
MOVE EAST WITH THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH VFR EXPECTED UNDER GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE PASSING OVHD SUNDAY WITH FAIR DRY WEATHER.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THE VIRGINIA BLUE RIDGE NORTHWARD
INTO NORTH CENTRAL VA FOR STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY.
WINDS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 20 MPH SUSTAINED...WITH GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 MPH. HUMIDITY MINIMUMS NEAR 20 PERCENT WILL BE COMMON
THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...IT HAS BEEN 7 DAYS SINCE MEASURABLE
RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED IN ROANOKE VALLEY AND THE IMMEDIATE BLUE
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE NEW RIVER AND SHENANDOAH VALLEYS. THIS
HAS ALLOWED LEAVES AND BRUSH TO BECOME DRY AND VERY RECEPTIVE TO
FIRE...10 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE NEAR 7 PERCENT.

CONCERN TODAY IS FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD IF A WILDFIRE OCCURS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-047.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...PM
FIRE WEATHER...PM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230813
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
413 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES SFC COLD FRONT SLOWLY DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC THIS MORNING. EXPECT QUICK
CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH SUNRISE AS WINDS VEER AROUND TO
THE NW, AND WILL BECOME GUSTY LATER TODAY.

MODIFYING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NW TODAY. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE, WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH ON THE ERN SHORE AND 25-35 MPH ELSEWHERE. A
MAINLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKY EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH A FEW SCATTERED CU WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE ERN SHORE DUE TO COLD POOL ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. PLENTY OF SUN, DRYING FUELS AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL ADD UP TO A POTENTIALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY,.
HAVE ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA,
MAINLY FROM RIC NORTH, WITH AN SPS FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER
OUTLOOKED OVER SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

FOR TEMPS, LOCAL THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATE HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 60S OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER, WITH DEWPOINTS MIXING
INTO THE UPR 20S/LOW 30S (YIELDING MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE MID
20S INLAND) AND WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT, EXPECT MAXIMA
MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND ALL ZONES (NOT MUCH
DIFFERENCE AT THE COAST DUE TO STRONG NW FLOW). HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT CHILLY EARLY MORNING LOWS
THU MORNING IN THE MID-UPPER 30S ALONG/W OF I-95 TO THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY. DO NOT EXPECT ANY
FREEZE ISSUES AND PROBABLY TOO DRY FOR MUCH MORE THAN SOME PATCHY
FROST IN SHELTERED LOCALES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DRY AGAIN ONCE AGAIN THU AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE
NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC REGION, BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD ERY FRIDAY. HIGHS THURS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S (A
LITTLE COOLER NEAR THE COAST). ONCE AGAIN, MIN RH VALUES FALL INTO
THE 20S THU AFTN BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER. NEXT FAST MOVING WAVE
OF MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE PLAINS ON FRI. GFS REMAINS FASTER
WITH BRINGING SYSTEM THROUGH, WITH THE NAM/ECMWF A BIT SHARPER
WITH THE UPPER WAVE...AND HENCE A BIT SLOWER. PUSHED BACK ONSET OF
POP JUST SLIGHTLY AND CONTINUED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THESE STILL DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS. GIVEN THIS, EXPECT A SCENARIO
NOT UNLIKE THAT OF EARLIER YESTERDAY (TUESDAY); RATHER MEAGER
INSTABILITY WITH MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR/LAPSE RATES THAT RESULT
IN SOME WEAK DISORGANIZED CONVECTION LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY. WILL
KEEP CHC POPS ALL ZONES FOR SCT SHRAS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM
PUSHING THROUGH AT SOME POINT IN THE AFTN/EVENING. WARMER SSW
FLOW SHOULD PUSH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 8O.

CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH POPS QUICKLY ENDING
WEST TO EAST. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 ALONG AREA
COASTLINES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO EVOLVE INTO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS DURING THE EXTENDED...LIKELY RESULTING IN A
COOL/WET PERIOD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TENDS TO STRUGGLE WITH BLOCKY FLOW...AND THIS
IS NO EXCEPTION. TRENDED TOWARD ENSEMBLE AND WPC GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH
OUT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. OVERALL...UPPER PATTERN WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS...HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE GULF STATES INTO THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES
AND ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OVER SE CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND. WHILE
MEANINGFUL DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE MODELS...A SECOND (DRY) COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON SAT. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING COOLER/DRIER AIR TO THE REGION ON SUN. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
WILL THEN SET UP OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION (DEPENDING ON THE
MODEL IT COULD BE FROM THE CAROLINAS NWD TO THE MASON DIXON LINE).
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF PRECIP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL
PROGRESS EWD SUN-TUES...TAPPING INTO GULF MOISTURE. WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUN NIGHT-TUES BASED ON UNCERTAINTY...BUT
INCREASE TO LOW-END CHANCE POPS TUES NIGHT AS THE UPPER/SFC LOW GETS
CLOSER.

HAVE TRENDED TO THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE MID-UPPER 60S SUN-TUES. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SFC COLD FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SRN NJ COAST
INTO THE NC PIEDMONT REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS QUICKLY TURN
TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT AND BECOME GUSTY DUE TO A DECENT SURGE
OF COLD AIR FLOWING IN FROM THE NW. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD AVERAGE
ABOUT 34015G25KT DURING THIS INITIAL PUSH OF COLDER AIR. AS THE
FRONT EXITS THE COAST SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE
WNW-NW WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE CLOSE TO 20G30KT FROM MID MORNING
THROUGH LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. NW WIND SPEEDS BRIEFLY INCREASE THU
MORNING AND THEN DROP OFF THROUGH THE AFTN AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
ACROSS THE AREA AND BECOMES LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY THU
EVENING. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION THU NIGHT...
CAUSING NW WINDS TO BACK AROUND TO THE S-SE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRI AFTN/EVENING...BRINGING
SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO AREA TAF SITES.
BEHIND THIS FRONT...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NLY AROUND 15 KT OR
LESS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
A SFC COLD FRONT IS JUST STARTING TO TRACK ACROSS THE WATERS FROM
NW TO SE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE
COAST BY SUNRISE. JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG SCA WINDS WILL
OCCUR DUE TO A DECENT SURGE OF COLD AIR FLOWING IN FROM THE NW. AS
A RESULT...NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
30 KT EARLY THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF TODAY
BEFORE TAPERING OFF TONIGHT. THE NW WIND DIRECTION WILL GENERALLY
PREVENT SEAS FROM BUILDING ANY HIGHER THAN 5-6 FT...WITH 3-4 FT
WAVES ON THE BAY (LOCALLY UP TO 5 FT SRN BAY AROUND SUNRISE WITH
THE INITIAL PUSH OF COLD AIR) AND 2-3 FT NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE
RIVERS. A SECONDARY...ALBEIT WEAKER...COLD AIR SURGE IS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP NW WINDS ON THE BAY/OCEAN TO STAY
AROUND 20-25 KT OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT NRN COASTAL
WATERS. SCA FLAGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR AREA WATERS. PLEASE
REFER TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/WAKEFIELD OR MWWAKQ FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE ON THU AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS. NW WIND SPEEDS AND SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL BELOW
SCA THRESHOLDS BY THU AFTN (AOB 15 KT CHES BAY/AOB 25 KT AND SEAS
BELOW 5 FT)...HOWEVER OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE SOMEWHAT
BREEZY DURING THE DAY BEFORE FINALLY DIMINISHING BY EARLY THU
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THU NIGHT AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. THIS WILL CAUSE NW WINDS
TO BACK AROUND TO THE S-SE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
WATERS FRI EVENING...BRINGING SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE NLY AROUND 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND AND WAVES/SEAS WILL AVERAGE 1-2 FT/2-3 FT RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GIVEN THE EXPECTED DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS LATER TODAY...AND
IN COORDINATION WITH STATE FIRE OFFICIALS/NEIGHBORING FORECAST
OFFICES, A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VA (MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF RIC METRO AREA, AS WELL AS THE LOWER MD EASTER
SHORE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE STRONGEST THIS AFTN (20-25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH) ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM FVX-PTB-
LFI...AND THIS IS ESSENTIALLY THE WARNING AREA. FARTHER
SOUTH...WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG (10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30
MPH)...SO HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE AN SPS FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER
OVER THESE AREAS TO HIGHLIGHT DRYING FUELS.

DRY CONDITIONS (MIN RH VALUES 20-25%) WILL OCCUR AGAIN ON
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG. THIS
WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR ANY FIRE WX WATCHES/WARNINGS
OVER OUR AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE WHERE WINDS
MAY REMAIN ELEVATED. HOWEVER, ANYONE PLANNING/INVOLVED IN OUTDOOR
BURNING ACTIVITIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION. WILL
THEREFORE MENTION CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS FOR TOMORROW IN THE
HWO/FWF.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ021>025.
NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR NCZ012>017-030>032.
VA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ048-049-061>064-068>078-081>086-089>091-094-099-100.
     INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR VAZ060-065>067-079-080-087-088-092-093-095>098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB/MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD
FIRE WEATHER...AKQ









000
FXUS61 KLWX 230755
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
355 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AND ANOTHER COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVERHEAD SUNDAY AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS TO OUR SOUTH. WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY...BRINGING
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE AREA NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRIER AND COOLER AIR BEING USHERED IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT
MOVED THRU EARLIER IN THE OVERNIGHT. GUSTY WINDS SWEEPING ACROSS THE
REGION...AS THEY WILL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. A POTENT VORT LOBE
SWINGING DOWN ACROSS THE MASON-DIXON LINE IN THE MID LEVELS. THIS
FEATURE WILL BE MIXING-DOWN THE STRONGER WIND GUSTS IN THE COMING
HRS...HELPING TO DROP TEMPS DOWN INTO THE M-U40S BY THE PREDAWN HRS
WHICH IS ACTUALLY RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL AVG FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

AS SKIES CLEAR OUT AND THE SUN COMES OUT IN THE COMING HRS...MORE OF
THE HIGHER WIND GUSTS WILL SPREAD OUT ACROSS THE REGION. THE UPPER
VORT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST NEAR DAWN...W/ THE SUBSIDENCE REGION
SETTING UP DIRECTLY OVER ERN MD AND TAPERING OFF INTO NRN VA. TEMPS
WILL EVENTUALLY CLIMB BACK INTO THE L-M60S THIS AFTN...BUT WINDS IN
THE 20-30MPH RANGE WILL KEEP AT LEAST SOME CHILL FACTOR IN THE AIR
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. SOME OF THE HIGHER GUSTS WILL PEAK NEAR 40MPH
DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTN DURING PEAK HEATING.

THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS...LOW RHS AND LOW FUEL MOISTURES WILL
CREATE THE ELEVATED WILDFIRE DANGER TODAY - SO A RED FLAG WARNING
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAYTIME HRS TODAY.
SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW.

ONCE THE UPPER VORT COMPLETELY MOVES OFF THE COAST SLOWLY INTO THU
MRNG...WINDS WILL DROP OFF OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE REGION. NERN MD
WILL REMAIN THE SOME OF THE BREEZIER CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT...SINCE
THE RIBBON OF UPPER VORTICITY WILL STILL BE HANGING OUT OVER
DELMARVA - VERY SLOWLY DRIFTING TOWARD THE COAST. A DAY`S WORTH OF
DRY AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP BACK DOWN AGAIN INTO THE M-U30S FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS. A FEW AREAS OF THE CWA LIKE THE APLCNS AND SHEN VLY
WILL SEE TEMPS HOVERING AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY WHILE AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD DURING THIS TIME. PLENTY OF
SUBSIDENCE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SUNSHINE. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO...RANGING FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. SOME AREAS
ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND THE VALLEYS OF EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA
MAY REACH INTO THE 70S.

THE SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA...BUT PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY. MIN TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS TO
NEAR 50 IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY...BRINGING A FEW
SHOWERS WITH IT. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED SO ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH.

THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR DRY
CONDITIONS...BUT ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SO MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY. SATURDAY WILL TURN OUT
MILD AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY DUE TO A DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...BRINGING DRY AND
COOLER CONDITIONS.

CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST
NEXT WEEK. A WARM FRONT WILL STALL OUT NEAR THE REGION DURING THIS
TIME AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. CERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE DURATION OF THE CURRENT TAF
PERIOD. MID-20KT RANGE GUSTS ALREADY HAVE BEEN SPREADING OVER THE
AREA IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HRS...W/ A SOLID 12-OR-SO MORE HRS TO GO
W/ THE STRONGER TIER OF WINDS. AFTER SUNRISE...GUSTS AOB 30KT WILL
BEGIN SPREADING OVER THE AREA - ESPEC OVER NRN MD AND JUST INTO NRN
VA...ALL OUT OF THE NW TODAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DROP OFF TO
15-20KT LATER THIS EVE AFTER SUNSET BUT STAY BREEZY OVER THE I-95
CORRIDOR AND EAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS FOR THE AREA WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE LATER TONIGHT.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS THURSDAY ACROSS
THE EASTERN TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ACROSS KMRB AND KCHO.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TERMINALS THURSDAY EVENING WILL SHIFT EAST
OVERNIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
DURING THIS TIME. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS
FRIDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS LIKELY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND IT WILL STALL OUT JUST TO THE SOUTH FOR SUNDAY. VFR
CONDITONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS IN THE HIGHER-END SCA CRITERIA RANGE ARE
APPEARING OVER THE WATER...MAINLY OVER THE NRN MD BAY OVERNIGHT.
MORE MARGINAL GUSTS EXIST OVER THE REST OF THE BAY/TP RVR. WINDS
BEHIND A COLD FRONT HAVE INCREASED OVER THE PAST FEW HRS. ONCE THE
SUN RISES IN A FEW HRS...HIGHER WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
ENTIRETY OVER THE MD BAY AND TP RVR AND GALE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO
APPEAR FOR MUCH OF THE DAYTIME HRS. HEADING INTO THE LATE EVE
HRS...WINDS WILL DROP OFF TO A GENERAL 15-20KT RANGE.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS THURSDAY. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH BY THURSDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
HOWEVER...THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL LIKELY PASS THROUGH THE WATERS SATURDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT
TO THE SOUTH FOR SUNDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING HAS REPLACED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR MUCH OF
THE MID ATLC REGION TODAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE STRONGER OVER NRN AND
ERN MD...THOUGH THE LOWEST RHS/HIGHEST TEMPS WILL BE OVER THE LOWER
NRN VA PIEDMONT. ONLY LOCALIZED AREAS RECEIVED A COUPLE/FEW TENTHS
OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL YESTERDAY...WHICH WILL FAIRLY QUICKLY BE
NULLIFIED BY THE RELENTLESS AND DRY NW WINDS FOR MOST OF TODAY.
GUSTY WINDS OF 20-30MPH HAVE ALREADY BEEN SPREADING ACROSS THE
REGION IN THE PAST FEW HRS...GETTING STRONGER AND DRIER AFTER
SUNRISE. TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE 60S TODAY AND DEWPOINTS WILL DROP
TO THE U20S/L30S. LATER THIS EVE...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DROP DOWN TO
MORE OF A 10-15MPH BREEZE.

DRIER AIR WILL CAUSE EVEN LOWER RH VALUES THURSDAY...BUT WINDS
WILL NOT BE AS STRONG. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND WHERE THE WINDS WILL
BE STRONGEST.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY...BRINGING A FEW
SHOWERS BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY AVERAGE OUT TO BE LIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND THIS WILL CAUSE
TIDAL BLOWOUT. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY...BUT NOT AS STRONG. HOWEVER...TIDAL BLOWOUT CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME AS WELL.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR DCZ001.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR DCZ001.
MD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MDZ003>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-502.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MDZ004>007-009>011-013-014-018.
VA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR VAZ025>031-036>040-042-050>057-501-502-504.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR VAZ054.
WV...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR WVZ050>053-055-502-504-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ530>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...GMS
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL/GMS
AVIATION...BJL/GMS
MARINE...BJL/GMS
FIRE WEATHER...BJL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...GMS/BJL








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230752
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
352 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES SFC COLD FRONT SLOWLY DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC THIS MORNING. EXPECT QUICK
CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH SUNRISE AS WINDS VEER AROUND TO
THE NW, AND WILL BECOME GUSTY LATER TODAY.

MODIFYING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NW TODAY. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE, WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH ON THE ERN SHORE AND 25-35 MPH ELSEWHERE. A
MAINLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKY EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH A FEW SCATTERED CU WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE ERN SHORE DUE TO COLD POOL ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. PLENTY OF SUN, DRYING FUELS AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL ADD UP TO A POTENTIALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY,.
HAVE ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA,
MAINLY FROM RIC NORTH, WITH AN SPS FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER
OUTLOOKED OVER SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

FOR TEMPS, LOCAL THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATE HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 60S OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER, WITH DEWPOINTS MIXING
INTO THE UPR 20S/LOW 30S (YIELDING MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE MID
20S INLAND) AND WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT, EXPECT MAXIMA
MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND ALL ZONES (NOT MUCH
DIFFERENCE AT THE COAST DUE TO STRONG NW FLOW). HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT CHILLY EARLY MORNING LOWS
THU MORNING IN THE MID-UPPER 30S ALONG/W OF I-95 TO THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY. DO NOT EXPECT ANY
FREEZE ISSUES AND PROBABLY TOO DRY FOR MUCH MORE THAN SOME PATCHY
FROST IN SHELTERED LOCALES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

DRY AGAIN ONCE AGAIN THU AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE
NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC REGION, BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD ERY FRIDAY. HIGHS THURS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S (A
LITTLE COOLER NEAR THE COAST). ONCE AGAIN, MIN RH VALUES FALL INTO
THE 20S THU AFTN BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER. NEXT FAST MOVING WAVE
OF MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE PLAINS ON FRI. GFS REMAINS FASTER
WITH BRINGING SYSTEM THROUGH, WITH THE NAM/ECMWF A BIT SHARPER
WITH THE UPPER WAVE...AND HENCE A BIT SLOWER. PUSHED BACK ONSET OF
POP JUST SLIGHTLY AND CONTINUED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THESE STILL DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS. GIVEN THIS, EXPECT A SCENARIO
NOT UNLIKE THAT OF EARLIER YESTERDAY (TUESDAY); RATHER MEAGER
INSTABILITY WITH MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR/LAPSE RATES THAT RESULT
IN SOME WEAK DISORGANIZED CONVECTION LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY. WILL
KEEP CHC POPS ALL ZONES FOR SCT SHRAS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM
PUSHING THROUGH AT SOME POINT IN THE AFTN/EVENING. WARMER SSW
FLOW SHOULD PUSH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 8O.

CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH POPS QUICKLY ENDING
WEST TO EAST. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 ALONG AREA
COASTLINES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO EVOLVE INTO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS DURING THE EXTENDED...LIKELY RESULTING IN A
COOL/WET PERIOD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TENDS TO STRUGGLE WITH BLOCKY FLOW...AND THIS
IS NO EXCEPTION. TRENDED TOWARD ENSEMBLE AND WPC GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH
OUT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. OVERALL...UPPER PATTERN WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS...HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE GULF STATES INTO THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES
AND ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OVER SE CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND. WHILE
MEANINGFUL DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE MODELS...A SECOND (DRY) COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON SAT. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING COOLER/DRIER AIR TO THE REGION ON SUN. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
WILL THEN SET UP OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION (DEPENDING ON THE
MODEL IT COULD BE FROM THE CAROLINAS NWD TO THE MASON DIXON LINE).
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF PRECIP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL
PROGRESS EWD SUN-TUES...TAPPING INTO GULF MOISTURE. WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUN NIGHT-TUES BASED ON UNCERTAINTY...BUT
INCREASE TO LOW-END CHANCE POPS TUES NIGHT AS THE UPPER/SFC LOW GETS
CLOSER.

HAVE TRENDED TO THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE MID-UPPER 60S SUN-TUES. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 23Z...PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS HAVE PRACTICALLY DISSIPATED AND DID
NOT INCLUDE ANY PCPN IN THE TAFS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WAS MOVING
THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS AND IS FORECAST TO REACH RIC/SBY SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ECG AROUND 09Z/5AM EDT. BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTY NW OR N WINDS WILL
IMMEDIATELY FOLLOW THE FRONT. WINDS DIMINISH SOME (EXCEPT AT ORF)
A COUPLE OF HOURS FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THEN INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUSTS MAY REACH OVER 30 KNOTS
AT SBY AND AROUND 25 KNOTS AT THE OTHER TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY WITH SCT SHWRS/TSTMS IN THE
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY BUT THE WEEKEND
IS FORECAST TO BE DRY.

&&

.MARINE...
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAS ALIGNED ALONG THE WATERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT LOCATES OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS.
S-SW WINDS CURRENTLY OVER THE WATERS AVERAGING 10-15 KT WITH WAVES
1-2 FT AND SEAS 3-4 FT. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS THIS
EVENING AS A STRONG NW SURGE COMMENCES. PRESSURE GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS BTWN BUILDING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. 925MB WINDS INCREASE TO 35-40
KT AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHARPEN. THE RESULT WILL BE SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS...INCLUDING THE RIVERS AND SOUND.
DECIDED TO NOT GO LOW-END GALE BASED ON THE LIMITED STRENGTH OF
THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COOL WATERS. HOWEVER...AN OCCASIONAL
GUST TO 35 KT IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN BAY AND NRN
COASTAL WATERS. TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER AT KSBY YIELDS GUST TO ONLY
30-33 KT. WILL MONITOR FUTURE OBS/MODEL TRENDS TO SEE IF GALE
HEADLINES ARE NEEDED. REGARDLESS...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
RAPIDLY AROUND MIDNIGHT. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT IN THE
BAY...2-3 FT IN THE RIVERS AND 2 FT IN THE SOUND. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 5-8 FT...HIGHEST IN THE NRN COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD SWD OVER THE OH VALLEY WEDS AS SCA CONDITIONS
PERSIST THRU THE DAY. THE HIGH WILL NUDGE OVER THE WATERS WED
NIGHT...ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO
DIMINISH. SCA HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE REGION
THURS...LOCATING OFFSHORE LATE THURS. FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE
SOUTH...WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FT LATE THURS. SCA HEADLINES
FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND DROP OFF LATE WEDS...LOWER JAMES AND BAY
THURS MORNING.

A WEAKER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS FRI AFTERNOON WITH A
SECOND COLDER FRONT CROSSING THE WATERS SATURDAY. SCA CONDITIONS
MAY BE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GIVEN THE EXPECTED DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS LATER TODAY...AND
IN COORDINATION WITH STATE FIRE OFFICIALS/NEIGHBORING FORECAST
OFFICES, A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VA (MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
RIC METRO AREA, AS WELL AS THE LOWER MD EASTER SHORE. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE THE STRONGEST THIS AFTN (20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
35-40 MPH) ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM FVX-PTB-LFI...AND THIS
IS ESSENTIALLY THE WARNING AREA. FARTHER SOUTH...WINDS WILL NOT
BE AS STRONG (10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH)...SO HAVE OPTED TO
ISSUE AN SPS FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER OVER THESE AREAS TO
HIGHLIGHT DRYING FUELS.

DRY CONDITIONS (MIN RH VALUES 20-25%) WILL OCCUR AGAIN ON
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG. THIS
WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR ANY FIRE WX WATCHES/WARNINGS
OVER OUR AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE WHERE WINDS
MAY REMAIN ELEVATED. HOWEVER, ANYONE PLANNING/INVOLVED IN OUTDOOR
BURNING ACTIVITIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION. WILL
THEREFORE MENTION CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS FOR TOMORROW IN THE
HWO/FWF.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ021>025.
NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR NCZ012>017-030>032.
VA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ048-049-061>064-068>078-081>086-089>091-094-099-100.
     INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR VAZ060-065>067-079-080-087-088-092-093-095>098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB/MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KRNK 230613
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
213 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD EASTWARD LATER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER ON GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS NOT UNTIL FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1000 PM EDT TUESDAY...

UNEVENTFUL CFROPA OCCURRING ATTM AS SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OUT AHEAD
ALONG THE PREFRONTAL TROF...AND LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY IS JUST
ABOUT DONE. AM LIKING THE LOCAL WRF SOLUTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT
WHICH PUSHES SOME LOW LEVEL RH SWD INTO THE UPSLOPE AREAS WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED UPSLOPE SHOWER FAR NW
BUT IT APPEARS TO BE BELOW CHC POPS SO WILL STAY WITH THE DRY
FORECAST. OTHER ELEMENTS ON TRACK WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

AS OF 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...

WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AND INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE NW AFTER
MIDNIGHT WHEN THE DEEPER 85H COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES AND THE
GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW AND LOW PRESSURE OFF NEW
ENGLAND INCREASES. MAY BRIEFLY REACH WIND ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS
THE NW NC RIDGES ESPCLY AROUND DAWN BUT HOLDING SPEEDS JUST BELOW
CRITERIA FOR NOW WITH THE PROGGED LOW LEVEL JET OF ONLY AROUND 40
KTS. WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET MOS ON TEMPS GIVEN MIXING WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW ON WEDNESDAY WITH
GUSTY NW WINDS AND CHILLY AIR ALOFT MAKING FOR A COOL BUT
BREEZY/WINDY DAY DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. STRONG EARLY MORNING
SUBSIDENCE AND ONSET OF DEEPER MIXING MAY AGAIN PUSH WINDS CLOSE TO
ADVISORY LEVELS NW NC RIDGES BEFORE THE GRADIENT STARTS TO WEAKEN.
OTRW SUNNY WITH HIGHS STUCK IN THE COOL 50S TO LOWER 60S MOUNTAINS
TO MID/UPPER 60S EAST WHERE AIDED BY DOWNSLOPE AND HEATING OF DRY
AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA WILL PASS ACROSS THE
APPALACHIAN CHAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...PROVIDING DRY
WEATHER UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT ENOUGH TOWARD SUNRISE THURSDAY THAT WILL SEE POCKETS OF FROST
DEVELOP EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID
30S...WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT ACROSS OUR AREA DURING EARLY AFTERNOON...
AND WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY AS THE AXIS OF HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF OUR AREA...EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REACH
INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE THURSDAY EVENING AS OUR NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND WARMER AIR BUILDING IN FROM THE GULF WILL KEEP THURSDAY NIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S. BY SUNRISE...SHOWERS WILL BE MAKING THEIR
WAY INTO SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE AS A
TROUGH/VERY WEAK FRONT ADVANCES EAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN.
MAY SEE A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS DEVELOP INTO THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY AT
THIS POINT APPEARS RATHER MARGINAL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
EXIT THE AREA TO THE EAST DURING THE EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ALONG THE GULF COAST MAINTAINING A MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...

MODELS START TO BECOME DIVERGENT ON SATURDAY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE
IN TAKING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS FLIP-FLOPPED FROM ITS PREVIOUS FORECAST
SOLUTION...STALLING THE FRONT NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. THIS REMAINS
A LOW CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FORECAST BUT...IN EITHER CASE...BOTH
MODELS HAVE OUR AREA RELATIVELY DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT AS OUR NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS... BRINGING RAIN TO THE
AREA ON MONDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S FOR SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY...WITH RAIN BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S FOR MONDAY. THE OVERNIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT PERHAPS THE DEEPER VALLEY BOTTOMS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. ASIDE
FOR SOME SCT MID CLOUD...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. BIGGEST BY-
PRODUCT OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE THE GUSTY SURFACE WINDS.
WINDS TODAY WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...SUSTAINED 12-18KTS WITH
GUSTS OF 22-28KTS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH RETURN OF
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVHD AND
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS
MOVE EAST WITH THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH VFR EXPECTED UNDER GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE PASSING OVHD SUNDAY WITH FAIR DRY WEATHER.

&&


.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-047.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PC
NEAR TERM...JH/MBS
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...PM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 230157
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
957 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD EASTWARD LATER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER ON GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS NOT UNTIL FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1000 PM EDT TUESDAY...

UNEVENTFUL CFROPA OCCURRING ATTM AS SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OUT AHEAD
ALONG THE PREFRONTAL TROF...AND LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY IS JUST
ABOUT DONE. AM LIKING THE LOCAL WRF SOLUTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT
WHICH PUSHES SOME LOW LEVEL RH SWD INTO THE UPSLOPE AREAS WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED UPSLOPE SHOWER FAR NW
BUT IT APPEARS TO BE BELOW CHC POPS SO WILL STAY WITH THE DRY
FORECAST. OTHER ELEMENTS ON TRACK WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

AS OF 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...

WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AND INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE NW AFTER
MIDNIGHT WHEN THE DEEPER 85H COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES AND THE
GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW AND LOW PRESSURE OFF NEW
ENGLAND INCREASES. MAY BRIEFLY REACH WIND ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS
THE NW NC RIDGES ESPCLY AROUND DAWN BUT HOLDING SPEEDS JUST BELOW
CRITERIA FOR NOW WITH THE PROGGED LOW LEVEL JET OF ONLY AROUND 40
KTS. WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET MOS ON TEMPS GIVEN MIXING WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW ON WEDNESDAY WITH
GUSTY NW WINDS AND CHILLY AIR ALOFT MAKING FOR A COOL BUT
BREEZY/WINDY DAY DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. STRONG EARLY MORNING
SUBSIDENCE AND ONSET OF DEEPER MIXING MAY AGAIN PUSH WINDS CLOSE TO
ADVISORY LEVELS NW NC RIDGES BEFORE THE GRADIENT STARTS TO WEAKEN.
OTRW SUNNY WITH HIGHS STUCK IN THE COOL 50S TO LOWER 60S MOUNTAINS
TO MID/UPPER 60S EAST WHERE AIDED BY DOWNSLOPE AND HEATING OF DRY
AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA WILL PASS ACROSS THE
APPALACHIAN CHAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...PROVIDING DRY
WEATHER UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT ENOUGH TOWARD SUNRISE THURSDAY THAT WILL SEE POCKETS OF FROST
DEVELOP EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID
30S...WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT ACROSS OUR AREA DURING EARLY AFTERNOON...
AND WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY AS THE AXIS OF HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF OUR AREA...EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REACH
INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE THURSDAY EVENING AS OUR NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND WARMER AIR BUILDING IN FROM THE GULF WILL KEEP THURSDAY NIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S. BY SUNRISE...SHOWERS WILL BE MAKING THEIR
WAY INTO SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE AS A
TROUGH/VERY WEAK FRONT ADVANCES EAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN.
MAY SEE A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS DEVELOP INTO THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY AT
THIS POINT APPEARS RATHER MARGINAL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
EXIT THE AREA TO THE EAST DURING THE EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ALONG THE GULF COAST MAINTAINING A MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...

MODELS START TO BECOME DIVERGENT ON SATURDAY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE
IN TAKING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS FLIP-FLOPPED FROM ITS PREVIOUS FORECAST
SOLUTION...STALLING THE FRONT NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. THIS REMAINS
A LOW CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FORECAST BUT...IN EITHER CASE...BOTH
MODELS HAVE OUR AREA RELATIVELY DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT AS OUR NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS... BRINGING RAIN TO THE
AREA ON MONDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S FOR SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY...WITH RAIN BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S FOR MONDAY. THE OVERNIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT PERHAPS THE DEEPER VALLEY BOTTOMS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 755 PM EDT TUESDAY...

FRONTAL SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE ALONG A LINE FROM EKN-CRW-LNP...WITH
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PIEDMONT OF VA. FIRST LINE
OF SHRA EXITED THE EASTERN CWA AROUND 21Z. SECOND LINE OF BROKEN
SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA STILL EVIDENT ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. CIGS GENERALLY VFR AT THE CURRENT
TIME AND SHOULD REMAIN SO EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT. ACROSS
EASTERN WV...UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF LOWER
SC...WITH CIGS APPROACHING MVFR...IF NOT POSSIBLY HIGH END MVFR
FOR A FEW HOURS AT BLF...POSSIBLY LWB. OTHERWISE...VFR CIGS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO THE EAST...BUT BCB MAY SEE LOW END VFR CIGS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. AFT 14Z WED...EXPECT ANY CLOUDS TO BECOME
SCT...WITH MOSTLY SKC EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT. MAIN ISSUE
THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD WILL BE WIND. WIND SHIFT TO THE
WNW/NW AND INCREASING WINDS WILL BE OBSERVED IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THIS EVENING...WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS NEAR 10KTS
AND GUSTS TO NEAR 20KTS MUCH OF THE NIGHT ROA/BCB/BLF. AFT 14Z
WED...ALL SITES WILL SEE GUSTY WNW-NW WINDS AT SPEEDS OF 10-15KTS
WITH GUSTS 25-30KTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH 14Z...THEN MEDIUM TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN VFR CIGS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. MEDIUM
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY...WITH
WIDESPREAD VFR LIKELY. ANOTHER FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE
ON FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS MOVE EAST WITH THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH VFR
EXPECTED UNDER GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING BRINGING AN
END TO MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. STRONG NW WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 40 MPH
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH ANOTHER QUICK DROP IN HUMIDITY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS MAY LEAD TO ENHANCED FIRE DANGER ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN VIRGINIA WHERE ONLY VERY LIGHT
RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS ALSO
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO MORE CRITICAL LEVELS WITH GOOD DRYING
OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
IN VIRGINIA ON WEDNESDAY.

VERY DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON THURSDAY WHICH PRESENTS THE
NEXT BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR PRESCRIBED BURNS DESPITE ONLY LIGHT
MIXING AND WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS AS THE FLOW TURNS BACK TO THE SW.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-047.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PC
NEAR TERM...JH/MBS
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...JH/RAB
FIRE WEATHER...JH




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230140
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
940 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A
SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM...SFC COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS
AND WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EASTWARD LATE THIS EVENING...THEN
OFF THE COAST AROUND 06Z. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT
ONLY ISOLATED -SHRA ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. BASED
ON THIS...HAVE REMOVED POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS WHILE KEEPING LOW
END POPS (20-30%) ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN LOCALS THRU MIDNIGHT.

A QUICKLY CLEARING SKY IS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS COOL CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. ENOUGH MIXING WILL OCCUR
OVERNIGHT TO KEEP TEMPS FROM ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPR 40S INLAND
AND OVER THE EASTERN SHORE...TO LOW 50S SE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODIFYING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW ON
WED...WITH A BREEZY TO WINDY AND VERY DRY DAY EXPECTED. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH ON THE ERN SHORE AND
25-35 MPH ELSEWHERE (SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW). SKIES WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR ALTHOUGH A FEW SCATTERED CU WILL PERSIST ACRS THE ERN
SHORE DUE TO COLD POOL ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
(LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE). LOCAL THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATE HIGHS
ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER, WITH
DEWPOINTS WILL MIX INTO THE UPR 20S/LOW 30S (YIELDING MINIMUM RH
VALUES IN THE MID 20S INLAND) AND WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT,
BUMPED TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND ALL ZONES (NOT MUCH
DIFFERENCE AT THE COAST DUE TO STRONG NW FLOW). HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM NW WED NIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES. EARLY
MORNING LOWS THU MORNING IN THE MID-UPPER 30S ALONG/W OF I-95 TO
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE (DO NOT EXPECT A FREEZE AND
PROBABLY TOO DRY FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF FROST).

DRY AGAIN ON THU AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE REGION, BEFORE
SLIDING OFF OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE THU/ERY FRIDAY. HIGHS THURS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S (A LITTLE COOLER NEAR THE COAST). ONCE AGAIN,
MIN RH VALUES FALL INTO THE 20S THU AFTN BUT WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER. NEXT FAST MOVING WAVE OF MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE W ON
FRI. HAVE BLENDED THE FASTER GFS AND SLOWER NAM/ECMWF FOR
NOW...WITH CHC POPS ALL ZONES AT SOME POINT...MAINLY FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTN. WARMER SSW FLOW SHOULD PUSH HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO EVOLVE INTO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS DURING THE EXTENDED...LIKELY RESULTING IN A
COOL/WET PERIOD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TENDS TO STRUGGLE WITH BLOCKY FLOW...AND THIS
IS NO EXCEPTION. TRENDED TOWARD ENSEMBLE AND WPC GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH
OUT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. OVERALL...UPPER PATTERN WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS...HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE GULF STATES INTO THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES
AND ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OVER SE CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND. WHILE
MEANINGFUL DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE MODELS...A SECOND (DRY) COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON SAT. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING COOLER/DRIER AIR TO THE REGION ON SUN. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
WILL THEN SET UP OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION (DEPENDING ON THE
MODEL IT COULD BE FROM THE CAROLINAS NWD TO THE MASON DIXON LINE).
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF PRECIP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL
PROGRESS EWD SUN-TUES...TAPPING INTO GULF MOISTURE. WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUN NIGHT-TUES BASED ON UNCERTAINTY...BUT
INCREASE TO LOW-END CHANCE POPS TUES NIGHT AS THE UPPER/SFC LOW GETS
CLOSER.

HAVE TRENDED TO THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE MID-UPPER 60S SUN-TUES. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 23Z...PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS HAVE PRACTICALLY DISSIPATED AND DID
NOT INCLUDE ANY PCPN IN THE TAFS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WAS MOVING
THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS AND IS FORECAST TO REACH RIC/SBY SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ECG AROUND 09Z/5AM EDT. BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTY NW OR N WINDS WILL
IMMEDIATELY FOLLOW THE FRONT. WINDS DIMINISH SOME (EXCEPT AT ORF)
A COUPLE OF HOURS FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THEN INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUSTS MAY REACH OVER 30 KNOTS
AT SBY AND AROUND 25 KNOTS AT THE OTHER TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY WITH SCT SHWRS/TSTMS IN THE
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY BUT THE WEEKEND
IS FORECAST TO BE DRY.

&&

.MARINE...
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAS ALIGNED ALONG THE WATERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT LOCATES OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS.
S-SW WINDS CURRENTLY OVER THE WATERS AVERAGING 10-15 KT WITH WAVES
1-2 FT AND SEAS 3-4 FT. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS THIS
EVENING AS A STRONG NW SURGE COMMENCES. PRESSURE GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS BTWN BUILDING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. 925MB WINDS INCREASE TO 35-40
KT AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHARPEN. THE RESULT WILL BE SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS...INCLUDING THE RIVERS AND SOUND.
DECIDED TO NOT GO LOW-END GALE BASED ON THE LIMITED STRENGTH OF
THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COOL WATERS. HOWEVER...AN OCCASIONAL
GUST TO 35 KT IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN BAY AND NRN
COASTAL WATERS. TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER AT KSBY YIELDS GUST TO ONLY
30-33 KT. WILL MONITOR FUTURE OBS/MODEL TRENDS TO SEE IF GALE
HEADLINES ARE NEEDED. REGARDLESS...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
RAPIDLY AROUND MIDNIGHT. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT IN THE
BAY...2-3 FT IN THE RIVERS AND 2 FT IN THE SOUND. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 5-8 FT...HIGHEST IN THE NRN COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD SWD OVER THE OH VALLEY WEDS AS SCA CONDITIONS
PERSIST THRU THE DAY. THE HIGH WILL NUDGE OVER THE WATERS WED
NIGHT...ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO
DIMINISH. SCA HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE REGION
THURS...LOCATING OFFSHORE LATE THURS. FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE
SOUTH...WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FT LATE THURS. SCA HEADLINES
FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND DROP OFF LATE WEDS...LOWER JAMES AND BAY
THURS MORNING.

A WEAKER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS FRI AFTERNOON WITH A
SECOND COLDER FRONT CROSSING THE WATERS SATURDAY. SCA CONDITIONS
MAY BE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GIVEN THE EXPECTED DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY...AND
AFTER COORDINATION WITH STATE FIRE OFFICIALS/NEIGHBORING
OFFICES...A FIRE WX WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VA AND THE LOWER MD EASTER
SHORE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE STRONGEST (20-25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH) ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM FVX-PTB-
LFI...AND THIS IS WHERE THE WATCH IS IN EFFECT. FARTHER SOUTH...WINDS
WILL NOT BE AS STRONG (10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH)...SO HAVE
OPTED TO LEAN TOWARD AN SPS FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER INSTEAD.
WILL LIKELY UPGRADE THE FIRE WX WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING OVERNIGHT.
MIN RH VALUES WED AFTN WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 20-30% FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

DRY CONDITIONS (MIN RH VALUES 20-25%) WILL OCCUR AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG. THIS WILL LIKELY
PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR ANY FIRE WX STATEMENTS...EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER
MD EASTERN SHORE WHERE WINDS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
     WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NCZ012>017-030>032.
VA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR VAZ048-049-061>064-068>078-081>086-089>091-
     094-099-100.
     INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
     WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VAZ060-065>067-079-080-087-088-092-
     093-095>098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM
FIRE WEATHER...JDM







000
FXUS61 KLWX 230135
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
935 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE
MOVING OFF THE COAST. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH
THE AREA LATE FRIDAY BEFORE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE
SATURDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 01Z...996MB SFC LOW IS CENTERED OVER NRN NEW HAMPSHIRE WITH
AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY
THEN SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED
OFF THE SHORE NEAR BALTIMORE AND WILL PUSH ACROSS THE EASTERN
SHORE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. JUST A FEW SHOWERS WEST OF THE
FRONT WITH NW FLOW INCREASING. OVERNIGHT GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH CAN
BE EXPECTED...INCREASING TO 30 TO 40 MPH AROUND SUNRISE. MIN TEMPS
LOW TO MID 40S INLAND...UPR 40S URBAN/NEARSHORE.


HIPRES BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WED. COLD AIRMASS WILL
BE MODERATED A BIT BY THE HIGH SUN ANGLE. FORECAST UPDATE A BLEND
OF MAV AND MET WHICH CAME OUT A BIT HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS. THIS
IS REASONABLE WITH SUNNY SKIES AND DOWNSLOPING FLOW. MAX TEMPS
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S EXCEPT FOR COOLER
HIGHS IN THE 40S ALONG HIGHER ELEVATIONS RIDGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE MOVING TOWARDS NEWFOUNDLAND WED NIGHT AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC FROM THE WEST. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE GUSTY WINDS WEDNESDAY WILL
DEPART TO OUR EAST WED EVENING. TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOW 30S WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE AS CLEARING AND CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO
DROP. ELSEWHERE...MID TO UPPER 30S EXPECTED TO AROUND 40 IN THE
METROS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE OVERHEAD THURSDAY RESULTING IN A SUNNY
DAY WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S. A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL APPROACH THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVES OFF THE
COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL
REACH 70-75 DEGREES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE APPALACHIANS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...ACCOMPANIED BY A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND
STRONG PRESSURE SURGE/COLD ADVECTION WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TO
BEGIN THE WEEKEND. THE BOUNDARY LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED...SO ANY
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG THE
MASON-DIXON LINE CLOSEST TO THE FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SATURDAY. THUS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO THESE AREAS.

AT THE MOMENT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER WITH
THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE FRONT. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
APPEARING INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING
THE STRONGEST WINDS ACCOMPANYING THE PRESSURE SURGE WILL OCCUR
DURING PEAK HEATING WHEN LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPEST AND MIXING DOWN
HIGHER WIND GUSTS WOULD BE EASIEST.

WINDS DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES OVER THE REGION...BUT ITS STAY OVER OUR AREA IS
SHORT-LIVED AS A LARGE AND SLOW-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACH
FROM THE WEST BRINGING A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDS THROUGH TAF PERIOD NOW THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS MOVED EAST. NWLY FLOW INCREASES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
TONIGHT...WITH 30 KT GUSTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

GUSTY NW FLOW CONTINUES WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST
AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS MAY CROSS THE
TERMINALS FRIDAY.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS AND WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10
KNOTS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS INCREASING TO
BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS THRU TNGT WITH NWLY FLOW
INCREASING TO 25 TO 30 KT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY FOR ALL OF THE WATERS
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KT EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. THE GALE
WARNING MAY BE ABLE TO BE DOWNGRADING SOMETIME DURING THE AFTN AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ASSOCIATED WIND FIELD WEAKENS A BIT.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH AN SCA IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH THAT TIME.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY.

A PERIOD OF HIGH-END SMALL CRAFT ARE EXPECTED BEHIND A STRONG BUT
MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT SATURDAY. WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE
NIGHT SATURDAY AND LIKELY DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING
AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY. A DEEP MIXING LAYER WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER AIR TO MIX
DOWN...CAUSING LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DURING THE LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY
WINDS...LOW FUEL MOISTURE AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ENHANCE
THE THREAT FOR THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRES WEDNESDAY. AFTER
COORDINATION WITH STATE OFFICIALS AND SURROUNDING WFOS...A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH WAS ISSUED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
POSITIVE TIDAL ANOMALIES REMAIN STEADY AROUND THREE-QUARTERS OF A
FOOT THIS EVENING. NWLY WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HRS WILL CAUSE ANOMALIES
TO DECREASE TO ABOUT HALF A FOOT BELOW MLLW.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. BLOWOUT TIDES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR DCZ001.
MD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ003>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-502.
VA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR VAZ025>031-036>040-042-050>057-501-502-504.
WV...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR WVZ050>053-055-502-504-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ530>534-537>543.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/JRK
NEAR TERM...BAJ/JRK
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...BAJ/JRK/HAS/DFH
MARINE...BAJ/JRK/HAS/DFH
FIRE WEATHER...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...









000
FXUS61 KRNK 230008
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
808 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD EASTWARD LATER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER ON GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS NOT UNTIL FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM EDT TUESDAY...

ADJUSTED POPS THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TO BETTER
ACCOMMODATE REDEVELOPMENT OF SHRA AND EVEN ISOLD TSRA ACROSS
EASTERN WV AND NORTHERN VA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
01-02Z WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
T/TD. WINDS LOOK GOOD AT THIS TIME.

AS OF 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...

COLD FRONT JUST WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY
JUMP TO THE EASTERN LEE TROUGH AND PUSH EAST OF THE CWA EARLY THIS
EVENING. THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY SOME LEFTOVER ISOLATED SHRA BANDS
WEST INCLUDING UPSLOPE -SHRA ALONG THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES UNTIL
AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO. OTRW MAIN CONCERN WITH PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF
SHRA/TSRA THAT SHOULD EXIT THE SE AROUND PACKAGE RELEASE TIME...WITH
HIGH POPS QUICKLY TRANSLATING TO DRYING AS DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW KICKS
IN BEHIND THE BAND OF SHRA. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AND INCREASE
AGAIN FROM THE NW AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN THE DEEPER 85H COLD ADVECTION
ARRIVES AND THE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW AND LOW
PRESSURE OFF NEW ENGLAND INCREASES. MAY BRIEFLY REACH WIND ADVISORY
LEVELS ACROSS THE NW NC RIDGES ESPCLY AROUND DAWN BUT HOLDING SPEEDS
JUST BELOW CRITERIA FOR NOW WITH THE PROGGED LOW LEVEL JET OF ONLY
AROUND 40 KTS. WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET MOS ON TEMPS GIVEN
MIXING WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW ON WEDNESDAY WITH
GUSTY NW WINDS AND CHILLY AIR ALOFT MAKING FOR A COOL BUT
BREEZY/WINDY DAY DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. STRONG EARLY MORNING
SUBSIDENCE AND ONSET OF DEEPER MIXING MAY AGAIN PUSH WINDS CLOSE TO
ADVISORY LEVELS NW NC RIDGES BEFORE THE GRADIENT STARTS TO WEAKEN.
OTRW SUNNY WITH HIGHS STUCK IN THE COOL 50S TO LOWER 60S MOUNTAINS
TO MID/UPPER 60S EAST WHERE AIDED BY DOWNSLOPE AND HEATING OF DRY
AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA WILL PASS ACROSS THE
APPALACHIAN CHAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...PROVIDING DRY
WEATHER UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT ENOUGH TOWARD SUNRISE THURSDAY THAT WILL SEE POCKETS OF FROST
DEVELOP EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID
30S...WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT ACROSS OUR AREA DURING EARLY AFTERNOON...
AND WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY AS THE AXIS OF HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF OUR AREA...EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REACH
INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE THURSDAY EVENING AS OUR NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND WARMER AIR BUILDING IN FROM THE GULF WILL KEEP THURSDAY NIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S. BY SUNRISE...SHOWERS WILL BE MAKING THEIR
WAY INTO SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE AS A
TROUGH/VERY WEAK FRONT ADVANCES EAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN.
MAY SEE A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS DEVELOP INTO THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY AT
THIS POINT APPEARS RATHER MARGINAL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
EXIT THE AREA TO THE EAST DURING THE EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ALONG THE GULF COAST MAINTAINING A MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...

MODELS START TO BECOME DIVERGENT ON SATURDAY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE
IN TAKING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS FLIP-FLOPPED FROM ITS PREVIOUS FORECAST
SOLUTION...STALLING THE FRONT NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. THIS REMAINS
A LOW CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FORECAST BUT...IN EITHER CASE...BOTH
MODELS HAVE OUR AREA RELATIVELY DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT AS OUR NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS... BRINGING RAIN TO THE
AREA ON MONDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S FOR SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY...WITH RAIN BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S FOR MONDAY. THE OVERNIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT PERHAPS THE DEEPER VALLEY BOTTOMS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 755 PM EDT TUESDAY...

FRONTAL SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE ALONG A LINE FROM EKN-CRW-LNP...WITH
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PIEDMONT OF VA. FIRST LINE
OF SHRA EXITED THE EASTERN CWA AROUND 21Z. SECOND LINE OF BROKEN
SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA STILL EVIDENT ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. CIGS GENERALLY VFR AT THE CURRENT
TIME AND SHOULD REMAIN SO EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT. ACROSS
EASTERN WV...UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF LOWER
SC...WITH CIGS APPROACHING MVFR...IF NOT POSSIBLY HIGH END MVFR
FOR A FEW HOURS AT BLF...POSSIBLY LWB. OTHERWISE...VFR CIGS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO THE EAST...BUT BCB MAY SEE LOW END VFR CIGS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. AFT 14Z WED...EXPECT ANY CLOUDS TO BECOME
SCT...WITH MOSTLY SKC EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT. MAIN ISSUE
THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD WILL BE WIND. WIND SHIFT TO THE
WNW/NW AND INCREASING WINDS WILL BE OBSERVED IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THIS EVENING...WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS NEAR 10KTS
AND GUSTS TO NEAR 20KTS MUCH OF THE NIGHT ROA/BCB/BLF. AFT 14Z
WED...ALL SITES WILL SEE GUSTY WNW-NW WINDS AT SPEEDS OF 10-15KTS
WITH GUSTS 25-30KTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH 14Z...THEN MEDIUM TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN VFR CIGS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. MEDIUM
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY...WITH
WIDESPREAD VFR LIKELY. ANOTHER FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE
ON FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS MOVE EAST WITH THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH VFR
EXPECTED UNDER GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING BRINGING AN
END TO MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. STRONG NW WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 40 MPH
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH ANOTHER QUICK DROP IN HUMIDITY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS MAY LEAD TO ENHANCED FIRE DANGER ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN VIRGINIA WHERE ONLY VERY LIGHT
RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS ALSO
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO MORE CRITICAL LEVELS WITH GOOD DRYING
OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
IN VIRGINIA ON WEDNESDAY.

VERY DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON THURSDAY WHICH PRESENTS THE
NEXT BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR PRESCRIBED BURNS DESPITE ONLY LIGHT
MIXING AND WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS AS THE FLOW TURNS BACK TO THE SW.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-047.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PC
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...JH/RAB
FIRE WEATHER...JH




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 222353
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
753 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A
SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SFC COLD FRONT IS STILL BACK OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVANCE EASTWARD THIS EVENING...THEN OFF THE COAST AROUND 06Z.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT ONLY ISOLATED -SHRA
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA EARLY THIS EVENING...AND ALSO
ISOLATED -SHRA OVER WEST VA NEAR THE COLD FRONT. BASED ON
THIS...HAVE DECREASED POPS FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING DUE TO LACK
OF WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PCPN. HOWEVER...DID NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE
POPS AS ISOLD SHWRS STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. A QUICKLY CLEARING SKY IS EXPECTED AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW.
WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING AS QUICKLY
AS PROGGED BY COOLER MAV GUIDANCE...SO HAVE OPTED TOWARDS WARMER
ENVELOPE OF MOS GUIDANCE ACROSS THE BOARD. EARLY MORNING LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND AND OVER THE EASTERN SHORE...TO
LOW 50S SE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODIFYING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW ON
WED...WITH A BREEZY TO WINDY AND VERY DRY DAY EXPECTED. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH ON THE ERN SHORE AND
25-35 MPH ELSEWHERE (SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW). SKIES WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR ALTHOUGH A FEW SCATTERED CU WILL PERSIST ACRS THE ERN
SHORE DUE TO COLD POOL ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
(LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE). LOCAL THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATE HIGHS
ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER, WITH
DEWPOINTS WILL MIX INTO THE UPR 20S/LOW 30S (YIELDING MINIMUM RH
VALUES IN THE MID 20S INLAND) AND WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT,
BUMPED TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND ALL ZONES (NOT MUCH
DIFFERENCE AT THE COAST DUE TO STRONG NW FLOW). HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM NW WED NIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES. EARLY
MORNING LOWS THU MORNING IN THE MID-UPPER 30S ALONG/W OF I-95 TO
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE (DO NOT EXPECT A FREEZE AND
PROBABLY TOO DRY FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF FROST).

DRY AGAIN ON THU AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE REGION, BEFORE
SLIDING OFF OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE THU/ERY FRIDAY. HIGHS THURS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S (A LITTLE COOLER NEAR THE COAST). ONCE AGAIN,
MIN RH VALUES FALL INTO THE 20S THU AFTN BUT WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER. NEXT FAST MOVING WAVE OF MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE W ON
FRI. HAVE BLENDED THE FASTER GFS AND SLOWER NAM/ECMWF FOR
NOW...WITH CHC POPS ALL ZONES AT SOME POINT...MAINLY FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTN. WARMER SSW FLOW SHOULD PUSH HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO EVOLVE INTO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS DURING THE EXTENDED...LIKELY RESULTING IN A
COOL/WET PERIOD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TENDS TO STRUGGLE WITH BLOCKY FLOW...AND THIS
IS NO EXCEPTION. TRENDED TOWARD ENSEMBLE AND WPC GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH
OUT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. OVERALL...UPPER PATTERN WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS...HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE GULF STATES INTO THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES
AND ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OVER SE CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND. WHILE
MEANINGFUL DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE MODELS...A SECOND (DRY) COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON SAT. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING COOLER/DRIER AIR TO THE REGION ON SUN. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
WILL THEN SET UP OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION (DEPENDING ON THE
MODEL IT COULD BE FROM THE CAROLINAS NWD TO THE MASON DIXON LINE).
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF PRECIP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL
PROGRESS EWD SUN-TUES...TAPPING INTO GULF MOISTURE. WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUN NIGHT-TUES BASED ON UNCERTAINTY...BUT
INCREASE TO LOW-END CHANCE POPS TUES NIGHT AS THE UPPER/SFC LOW GETS
CLOSER.

HAVE TRENDED TO THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE MID-UPPER 60S SUN-TUES. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 23Z...PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS HAVE PRACTICALLY DISSIPATED AND DID
NOT INCLUDE ANY PCPN IN THE TAFS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WAS MOVING
THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS AND IS FORECAST TO REACH RIC/SBY SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ECG AROUND 09Z/5AM EDT. BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTY NW OR N WINDS WILL
IMMEDIATELY FOLLOW THE FRONT. WINDS DIMINISH SOME (EXCEPT AT ORF)
A COUPLE OF HOURS FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THEN INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUSTS MAY REACH OVER 30 KNOTS
AT SBY AND AROUND 25 KNOTS AT THE OTHER TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY WITH SCT SHWRS/TSTMS IN THE
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY BUT THE WEEKEND
IS FORECAST TO BE DRY.

&&

.MARINE...
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAS ALIGNED ALONG THE WATERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT LOCATES OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS.
S-SW WINDS CURRENTLY OVER THE WATERS AVERAGING 10-15 KT WITH WAVES
1-2 FT AND SEAS 3-4 FT. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS THIS
EVENING AS A STRONG NW SURGE COMMENCES. PRESSURE GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS BTWN BUILDING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. 925MB WINDS INCREASE TO 35-40
KT AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHARPEN. THE RESULT WILL BE SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS...INCLUDING THE RIVERS AND SOUND.
DECIDED TO NOT GO LOW-END GALE BASED ON THE LIMITED STRENGTH OF
THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COOL WATERS. HOWEVER...AN OCCASIONAL
GUST TO 35 KT IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN BAY AND NRN
COASTAL WATERS. TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER AT KSBY YIELDS GUST TO ONLY
30-33 KT. WILL MONITOR FUTURE OBS/MODEL TRENDS TO SEE IF GALE
HEADLINES ARE NEEDED. REGARDLESS...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
RAPIDLY AROUND MIDNIGHT. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT IN THE
BAY...2-3 FT IN THE RIVERS AND 2 FT IN THE SOUND. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 5-8 FT...HIGHEST IN THE NRN COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD SWD OVER THE OH VALLEY WEDS AS SCA CONDITIONS
PERSIST THRU THE DAY. THE HIGH WILL NUDGE OVER THE WATERS WED
NIGHT...ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO
DIMINISH. SCA HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE REGION
THURS...LOCATING OFFSHORE LATE THURS. FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE
SOUTH...WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FT LATE THURS. SCA HEADLINES
FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND DROP OFF LATE WEDS...LOWER JAMES AND BAY
THURS MORNING.

A WEAKER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS FRI AFTERNOON WITH A
SECOND COLDER FRONT CROSSING THE WATERS SATURDAY. SCA CONDITIONS
MAY BE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT...PRODUCING A FEW
SHOWERS. GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON ALREADY DRY
FUELS.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY...AND AFTER
COORDINATION WITH STATE FIRE OFFICIALS/NEIGHBORING OFFICES...WILL GO
AHEAD AND ISSUE A FIRE WX WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VA AND THE LOWER MD EASTER SHORE.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE STRONGEST (20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
35-40 MPH) ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM FVX-PTB-LFI...AND THIS IS
WHERE THE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. FARTHER SOUTH...WINDS WILL NOT BE
AS STRONG (10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH)...SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAN
TOWARD AN SPS FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER INSTEAD. WILL LIKELY
UPGRADE THE FIRE WX WATCH TO A RED FLAG EITHER LATE THIS EVENING
OR OVERNIGHT. MIN RH VALUES WED AFTN WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 20-30%
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

DRY CONDITIONS (MIN RH VALUES 20-25%) WILL OCCUR AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG. THIS WILL LIKELY
PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR ANY FIRE WX STATEMENTS...EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER
MD EASTERN SHORE WHERE WINDS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
     WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NCZ012>017-030>032.
VA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR VAZ048-049-061>064-068>078-081>086-089>091-
     094-099-100.
     INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
     WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VAZ060-065>067-079-080-087-088-092-
     093-095>098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...JDM/LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 222327
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
727 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A
SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SFC COLD FRONT IS STILL BACK OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVANCE EASTWARD THIS EVENING...THEN OFF THE COAST AROUND 06Z.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT ONLY ISOLATED -SHRA
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA EARLY THIS EVENING...AND ALSO
ISOLATED -SHRA OVER WEST VA NEAR THE COLD FRONT. BASED ON
THIS...HAVE DECREASED POPS FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING DUE TO LACK
OF WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PCPN. HOWEVER...DID NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE
POPS AS ISOLD SHWRS STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. A QUICKLY CLEARING SKY IS EXPECTED AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW.
WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING AS QUICKLY
AS PROGGED BY COOLER MAV GUIDANCE...SO HAVE OPTED TOWARDS WARMER
ENVELOPE OF MOS GUIDANCE ACROSS THE BOARD. EARLY MORNING LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND AND OVER THE EASTERN SHORE...TO
LOW 50S SE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODIFYING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW ON
WED...WITH A BREEZY TO WINDY AND VERY DRY DAY EXPECTED. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH ON THE ERN SHORE AND
25-35 MPH ELSEWHERE (SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW). SKIES WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR ALTHOUGH A FEW SCATTERED CU WILL PERSIST ACRS THE ERN
SHORE DUE TO COLD POOL ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
(LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE). LOCAL THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATE HIGHS
ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER, WITH
DEWPOINTS WILL MIX INTO THE UPR 20S/LOW 30S (YIELDING MINIMUM RH
VALUES IN THE MID 20S INLAND) AND WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT,
BUMPED TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND ALL ZONES (NOT MUCH
DIFFERENCE AT THE COAST DUE TO STRONG NW FLOW). HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM NW WED NIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES. EARLY
MORNING LOWS THU MORNING IN THE MID-UPPER 30S ALONG/W OF I-95 TO
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE (DO NOT EXPECT A FREEZE AND
PROBABLY TOO DRY FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF FROST).

DRY AGAIN ON THU AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE REGION, BEFORE
SLIDING OFF OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE THU/ERY FRIDAY. HIGHS THURS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S (A LITTLE COOLER NEAR THE COAST). ONCE AGAIN,
MIN RH VALUES FALL INTO THE 20S THU AFTN BUT WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER. NEXT FAST MOVING WAVE OF MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE W ON
FRI. HAVE BLENDED THE FASTER GFS AND SLOWER NAM/ECMWF FOR
NOW...WITH CHC POPS ALL ZONES AT SOME POINT...MAINLY FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTN. WARMER SSW FLOW SHOULD PUSH HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO EVOLVE INTO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS DURING THE EXTENDED...LIKELY RESULTING IN A
COOL/WET PERIOD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TENDS TO STRUGGLE WITH BLOCKY FLOW...AND THIS
IS NO EXCEPTION. TRENDED TOWARD ENSEMBLE AND WPC GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH
OUT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. OVERALL...UPPER PATTERN WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS...HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE GULF STATES INTO THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES
AND ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OVER SE CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND. WHILE
MEANINGFUL DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE MODELS...A SECOND (DRY) COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON SAT. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING COOLER/DRIER AIR TO THE REGION ON SUN. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
WILL THEN SET UP OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION (DEPENDING ON THE
MODEL IT COULD BE FROM THE CAROLINAS NWD TO THE MASON DIXON LINE).
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF PRECIP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL
PROGRESS EWD SUN-TUES...TAPPING INTO GULF MOISTURE. WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUN NIGHT-TUES BASED ON UNCERTAINTY...BUT
INCREASE TO LOW-END CHANCE POPS TUES NIGHT AS THE UPPER/SFC LOW GETS
CLOSER.

HAVE TRENDED TO THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE MID-UPPER 60S SUN-TUES. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BAND OF PRE-FRONTAL SHWRS NOW CROSSING THE PIEDMONT HAVE THE BEST
CHC OF REACHING KRIC/KSBY OVER THE NEXT SVRL HRS SO HAVE ADDED A
2-3 HR TEMPO GROUP THERE. OTW...KEPT VCSH ACROSS SERN TAF SITES AFTR
20Z GIVING THE LATEST TRENDS OF THE PCPN WEAKENING AS IT CROSSES THE
MTS. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT THUNDER IN ATTM...
BEST LOCATION FOR ANY THUNDER TO OCCUR WOULD BE ACROSS SERN TAF SITES
BEFORE 00Z. OTW...SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE EXPECTED AS THE
ACTUAL COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS EVENING. SKIES CLR BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY AFTR 06Z. STRONG CAA SETS IN LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH NW WINDS INCRG TO BTWN 15-25 KTS BY 12Z. HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE DELMARVA AND SERN COASTAL AREAS WEDNESDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY WITH SCT SHWRS/TSTRMS.

&&

.MARINE...
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAS ALIGNED ALONG THE WATERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT LOCATES OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS.
S-SW WINDS CURRENTLY OVER THE WATERS AVERAGING 10-15 KT WITH WAVES
1-2 FT AND SEAS 3-4 FT. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS THIS
EVENING AS A STRONG NW SURGE COMMENCES. PRESSURE GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS BTWN BUILDING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. 925MB WINDS INCREASE TO 35-40
KT AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHARPEN. THE RESULT WILL BE SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS...INCLUDING THE RIVERS AND SOUND.
DECIDED TO NOT GO LOW-END GALE BASED ON THE LIMITED STRENGTH OF
THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COOL WATERS. HOWEVER...AN OCCASIONAL
GUST TO 35 KT IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN BAY AND NRN
COASTAL WATERS. TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER AT KSBY YIELDS GUST TO ONLY
30-33 KT. WILL MONITOR FUTURE OBS/MODEL TRENDS TO SEE IF GALE
HEADLINES ARE NEEDED. REGARDLESS...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
RAPIDLY AROUND MIDNIGHT. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT IN THE
BAY...2-3 FT IN THE RIVERS AND 2 FT IN THE SOUND. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 5-8 FT...HIGHEST IN THE NRN COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD SWD OVER THE OH VALLEY WEDS AS SCA CONDITIONS
PERSIST THRU THE DAY. THE HIGH WILL NUDGE OVER THE WATERS WED
NIGHT...ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO
DIMINISH. SCA HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE REGION
THURS...LOCATING OFFSHORE LATE THURS. FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE
SOUTH...WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FT LATE THURS. SCA HEADLINES
FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND DROP OFF LATE WEDS...LOWER JAMES AND BAY
THURS MORNING.

A WEAKER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS FRI AFTERNOON WITH A
SECOND COLDER FRONT CROSSING THE WATERS SATURDAY. SCA CONDITIONS
MAY BE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT...PRODUCING A FEW
SHOWERS. GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON ALREADY DRY
FUELS.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY...AND AFTER
COORDINATION WITH STATE FIRE OFFICIALS/NEIGHBORING OFFICES...WILL GO
AHEAD AND ISSUE A FIRE WX WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VA AND THE LOWER MD EASTER SHORE.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE STRONGEST (20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
35-40 MPH) ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM FVX-PTB-LFI...AND THIS IS
WHERE THE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. FARTHER SOUTH...WINDS WILL NOT BE
AS STRONG (10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH)...SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAN
TOWARD AN SPS FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER INSTEAD. WILL LIKELY
UPGRADE THE FIRE WX WATCH TO A RED FLAG EITHER LATE THIS EVENING
OR OVERNIGHT. MIN RH VALUES WED AFTN WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 20-30%
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

DRY CONDITIONS (MIN RH VALUES 20-25%) WILL OCCUR AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG. THIS WILL LIKELY
PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR ANY FIRE WX STATEMENTS...EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER
MD EASTERN SHORE WHERE WINDS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
     WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NCZ012>017-030>032.
VA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR VAZ048-049-061>064-068>078-081>086-089>091-
     094-099-100.
     INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
     WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VAZ060-065>067-079-080-087-088-092-
     093-095>098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...JDM/LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...SAM
FIRE WEATHER...JDM







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 222021
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
421 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. COOL CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES A WEAK LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACRS THE
PIEDMONT AS SEEN IN OBS/PRESSURE FALLS. ACTUAL COLD FRONT STILL
ALONG WEST SLOPE OF THE APPALACHIANS.

DEEP LAYER WSW FLOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE WNW AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ON RADAR OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS
BUT MUCH OF THIS HAS NOT EVEN BEEN MEASURABLE THUS FAR. THINK BEST
CHC FOR ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WILL COME W/ THE FRONT BETWEEN
ABOUT 6 AND 10 PM (CURRENTLY SOME CONVECTION IS BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD OVER SW PA). THE WSW DRYING FLOW E OF THE MTNS MAY KEEP
THIS FROM MAKING IT INTO AKQ CWA HOWEVER. HAVE INCLUDED SOME
LIKELY POPS OVER FAR WRN SECTIONS INTO ERLY EVENING...AND NRN
ZONES THROUGH 02Z. HAVE ALSO CONTINUED WITH ISOLATED TSTMS BUT IN
GENERAL THERE IS NOT A LOT OF SUPPORT FOR SEVERE WX GIVEN A SHORT
WINDOW WITH ML CAPES EVEN GETTING TO 500-1000 J/KG THROUGH 01Z.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 25-30 KT AS WELL...BUT
CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 40-45 MPH
GIVEN THE DEEP MIXING. QPF AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE
TENTH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH.

SHOWERS/ISO THUNDERSTORMS PUSH OFFSHORE LATE THIS EVENING W/ A
QUICKLY CLEARING SKY THROUGH MIDNIGHT, AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING AS QUICKLY AS PROGGED BY COOLER MAV
GUIDANCE...SO HAVE OPTED TOWARDS WARMER ENVELOPE OF MOS GUIDANCE
ACROSS THE BOARD. EARLY MORNING LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S
INLAND AND OVER THE EASTERN SHORE...TO LOW 50S SE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODIFYING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW ON
WED...WITH A BREEZY TO WINDY AND VERY DRY DAY EXPECTED. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH ON THE ERN SHORE AND
25-35 MPH ELSEWHERE (SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW). SKIES WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR ALTHOUGH A FEW SCATTERED CU WILL PERSIST ACRS THE ERN
SHORE DUE TO COLD POOL ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
(LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE). LOCAL THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATE HIGHS
ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER, WITH
DEWPOINTS WILL MIX INTO THE UPR 20S/LOW 30S (YIELDING MINIMUM RH
VALUES IN THE MID 20S INLAND) AND WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT,
BUMPED TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND ALL ZONES (NOT MUCH
DIFFERENCE AT THE COAST DUE TO STRONG NW FLOW). HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM NW WED NIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES. EARLY
MORNING LOWS THU MORNING IN THE MID-UPPER 30S ALONG/W OF I-95 TO
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE (DO NOT EXPECT A FREEZE AND
PROBABLY TOO DRY FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF FROST).

DRY AGAIN ON THU AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE REGION, BEFORE
SLIDING OFF OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE THU/ERY FRIDAY. HIGHS THURS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S (A LITTLE COOLER NEAR THE COAST). ONCE AGAIN,
MIN RH VALUES FALL INTO THE 20S THU AFTN BUT WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER. NEXT FAST MOVING WAVE OF MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE W ON
FRI. HAVE BLENDED THE FASTER GFS AND SLOWER NAM/ECMWF FOR
NOW...WITH CHC POPS ALL ZONES AT SOME POINT...MAINLY FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTN. WARMER SSW FLOW SHOULD PUSH HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO EVOLVE INTO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS DURING THE EXTENDED...LIKELY RESULTING IN A
COOL/WET PERIOD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TENDS TO STRUGGLE WITH BLOCKY FLOW...AND THIS
IS NO EXCEPTION. TRENDED TOWARD ENSEMBLE AND WPC GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH
OUT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. OVERALL...UPPER PATTERN WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS...HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE GULF STATES INTO THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES
AND ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OVER SE CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND. WHILE
MEANINGFUL DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE MODELS...A SECOND (DRY) COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON SAT. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING COOLER/DRIER AIR TO THE REGION ON SUN. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
WILL THEN SET UP OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION (DEPENDING ON THE
MODEL IT COULD BE FROM THE CAROLINAS NWD TO THE MASON DIXON LINE).
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF PRECIP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL
PROGRESS EWD SUN-TUES...TAPPING INTO GULF MOISTURE. WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUN NIGHT-TUES BASED ON UNCERTAINTY...BUT
INCREASE TO LOW-END CHANCE POPS TUES NIGHT AS THE UPPER/SFC LOW GETS
CLOSER.

HAVE TRENDED TO THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE MID-UPPER 60S SUN-TUES. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BAND OF PRE-FRONTAL SHWRS NOW CROSSING THE PIEDMONT HAVE THE BEST
CHC OF REACHING KRIC/KSBY OVER THE NEXT SVRL HRS SO HAVE ADDED A
2-3 HR TEMPO GROUP THERE. OTW...KEPT VCSH ACROSS SERN TAF SITES AFTR
20Z GIVING THE LATEST TRENDS OF THE PCPN WEAKENING AS IT CROSSES THE
MTS. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT THUNDER IN ATTM...
BEST LOCATION FOR ANY THUNDER TO OCCUR WOULD BE ACROSS SERN TAF SITES
BEFORE 00Z. OTW...SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE EXPECTED AS THE
ACTUAL COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS EVENING. SKIES CLR BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY AFTR 06Z. STRONG CAA SETS IN LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH NW WINDS INCRG TO BTWN 15-25 KTS BY 12Z. HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE DELMARVA AND SERN COASTAL AREAS WEDNESDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY WITH SCT SHWRS/TSTRMS.

&&

.MARINE...
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAS ALIGNED ALONG THE WATERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT LOCATES OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS.
S-SW WINDS CURRENTLY OVER THE WATERS AVERAGING 10-15 KT WITH WAVES
1-2 FT AND SEAS 3-4 FT. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS THIS
EVENING AS A STRONG NW SURGE COMMENCES. PRESSURE GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS BTWN BUILDING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. 925MB WINDS INCREASE TO 35-40
KT AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHARPEN. THE RESULT WILL BE SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS...INCLUDING THE RIVERS AND SOUND.
DECIDED TO NOT GO LOW-END GALE BASED ON THE LIMITED STRENGTH OF
THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COOL WATERS. HOWEVER...AN OCCASIONAL
GUST TO 35 KT IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN BAY AND NRN
COASTAL WATERS. TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER AT KSBY YIELDS GUST TO ONLY
30-33 KT. WILL MONITOR FUTURE OBS/MODEL TRENDS TO SEE IF GALE
HEADLINES ARE NEEDED. REGARDLESS...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
RAPIDLY AROUND MIDNIGHT. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT IN THE
BAY...2-3 FT IN THE RIVERS AND 2 FT IN THE SOUND. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 5-8 FT...HIGHEST IN THE NRN COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD SWD OVER THE OH VALLEY WEDS AS SCA CONDITIONS
PERSIST THRU THE DAY. THE HIGH WILL NUDGE OVER THE WATERS WED
NIGHT...ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO
DIMINISH. SCA HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE REGION
THURS...LOCATING OFFSHORE LATE THURS. FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE
SOUTH...WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FT LATE THURS. SCA HEADLINES
FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND DROP OFF LATE WEDS...LOWER JAMES AND BAY
THURS MORNING.

A WEAKER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS FRI AFTERNOON WITH A
SECOND COLDER FRONT CROSSING THE WATERS SATURDAY. SCA CONDITIONS
MAY BE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING...PRODUCING A
FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. GENERALLY LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON ALREADY DRY FUELS.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY...AND AFTER
COORDINATION WITH STATE FIRE OFFICIALS/NEIGHBORING OFFICES...WILL GO
AHEAD AND ISSUE A FIRE WX WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VA AND THE LOWER MD EASTER SHORE.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE STRONGEST (20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
35-40 MPH) ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM FVX-PTB-LFI...AND THIS IS
WHERE THE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. FARTHER SOUTH...WINDS WILL NOT BE
AS STRONG (10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH)...SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAN
TOWARD AN SPS FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER INSTEAD. WILL LET CURRENT LINE
OF SHOWERS CLEAR THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE ISSUING THE SPS.
WILL LIKELY UPGRADE THE FIRE WX WATCH TO A RED FLAG EITHER LATE THIS
EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. MIN RH VALUES WED AFTN WILL DROP TO BETWEEN
20-30% FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

DRY CONDITIONS (MIN RH VALUES 20-25%) WILL OCCUR AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG. THIS WILL LIKELY
PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR ANY FIRE WX STATEMENTS...EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER
MD EASTERN SHORE WHERE WINDS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR VAZ048-049-061>064-069>078-081>086-089>091-
     094-099-100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...SAM
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 222005
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
405 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. COOL CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES A WEAK LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACRS THE
PIEDMONT AS SEEN IN OBS/PRESSURE FALLS. ACTUAL COLD FRONT STILL
ALONG WEST SLOPE OF THE APPALACHIANS.

DEEP LAYER WSW FLOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE WNW AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ON RADAR OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS
BUT MUCH OF THIS HAS NOT EVEN BEEN MEASURABLE THUS FAR. THINK BEST
CHC FOR ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WILL COME W/ THE FRONT BETWEEN
ABOUT 6 AND 10 PM (CURRENTLY SOME CONVECTION IS BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD OVER SW PA). THE WSW DRYING FLOW E OF THE MTNS MAY KEEP
THIS FROM MAKING IT INTO AKQ CWA HOWEVER. HAVE INCLUDED SOME
LIKELY POPS OVER FAR WRN SECTIONS INTO ERLY EVENING...AND NRN
ZONES THROUGH 02Z. HAVE ALSO CONTINUED WITH ISOLATED TSTMS BUT IN
GENERAL THERE IS NOT A LOT OF SUPPORT FOR SEVERE WX GIVEN A SHORT
WINDOW WITH ML CAPES EVEN GETTING TO 500-1000 J/KG THROUGH 01Z.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 25-30 KT AS WELL...BUT
CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 40-45 MPH
GIVEN THE DEEP MIXING. QPF AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE
TENTH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH.

SHOWERS/ISO THUNDERSTORMS PUSH OFFSHORE LATE THIS EVENING W/ A
QUICKLY CLEARING SKY THROUGH MIDNIGHT, AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING AS QUICKLY AS PROGGED BY COOLER MAV
GUIDANCE...SO HAVE OPTED TOWARDS WARMER ENVELOPE OF MOS GUIDANCE
ACROSS THE BOARD. EARLY MORNING LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S
INLAND AND OVER THE EASTERN SHORE...TO LOW 50S SE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODIFYING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW ON
WED...WITH A BREEZY TO WINDY AND VERY DRY DAY EXPECTED. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH ON THE ERN SHORE AND
25-35 MPH ELSEWHERE (SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW). SKIES WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR ALTHOUGH A FEW SCATTERED CU WILL PERSIST ACRS THE ERN
SHORE DUE TO COLD POOL ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
(LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE). LOCAL THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATE HIGHS
ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER, WITH
DEWPOINTS WILL MIX INTO THE UPR 20S/LOW 30S (YIELDING MINIMUM RH
VALUES IN THE MID 20S INLAND) AND WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT,
BUMPED TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND ALL ZONES (NOT MUCH
DIFFERENCE AT THE COAST DUE TO STRONG NW FLOW). HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM NW WED NIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES. EARLY
MORNING LOWS THU MORNING IN THE MID-UPPER 30S ALONG/W OF I-95 TO
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE (DO NOT EXPECT A FREEZE AND
PROBABLY TOO DRY FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF FROST).

DRY AGAIN ON THU AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE REGION, BEFORE
SLIDING OFF OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE THU/ERY FRIDAY. HIGHS THURS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S (A LITTLE COOLER NEAR THE COAST). ONCE AGAIN,
MIN RH VALUES FALL INTO THE 20S THU AFTN BUT WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER. NEXT FAST MOVING WAVE OF MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE W ON
FRI. HAVE BLENDED THE FASTER GFS AND SLOWER NAM/ECMWF FOR
NOW...WITH CHC POPS ALL ZONES AT SOME POINT...MAINLY FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTN. WARMER SSW FLOW SHOULD PUSH HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO EVOLVE INTO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS DURING THE EXTENDED...LIKELY RESULTING IN A
COOL/WET PERIOD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TENDS TO STRUGGLE WITH BLOCKY FLOW...AND THIS
IS NO EXCEPTION. TRENDED TOWARD ENSEMBLE AND WPC GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH
OUT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. OVERALL...UPPER PATTERN WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS...HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE GULF STATES INTO THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES
AND ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OVER SE CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND. WHILE
MEANINGFUL DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE MODELS...A SECOND (DRY) COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON SAT. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING COOLER/DRIER AIR TO THE REGION ON SUN. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
WILL THEN SET UP OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION (DEPENDING ON THE
MODEL IT COULD BE FROM THE CAROLINAS NWD TO THE MASON DIXON LINE).
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF PRECIP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL
PROGRESS EWD SUN-TUES...TAPPING INTO GULF MOISTURE. WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUN NIGHT-TUES BASED ON UNCERTAINTY...BUT
INCREASE TO LOW-END CHANCE POPS TUES NIGHT AS THE UPPER/SFC LOW GETS
CLOSER.

HAVE TRENDED TO THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE MID-UPPER 60S SUN-TUES. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BAND OF PRE-FRONTAL SHWRS NOW CROSSING THE PIEDMONT HAVE THE BEST
CHC OF REACHING KRIC/KSBY OVER THE NEXT SVRL HRS SO HAVE ADDED A
2-3 HR TEMPO GROUP THERE. OTW...KEPT VCSH ACROSS SERN TAF SITES AFTR
20Z GIVING THE LATEST TRENDS OF THE PCPN WEAKENING AS IT CROSSES THE
MTS. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT THUNDER IN ATTM...
BEST LOCATION FOR ANY THUNDER TO OCCUR WOULD BE ACROSS SERN TAF SITES
BEFORE 00Z. OTW...SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE EXPECTED AS THE
ACTUAL COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS EVENING. SKIES CLR BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY AFTR 06Z. STRONG CAA SETS IN LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH NW WINDS INCRG TO BTWN 15-25 KTS BY 12Z. HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE DELMARVA AND SERN COASTAL AREAS WEDNESDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY WITH SCT SHWRS/TSTRMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS HAVE FINALLY SUBSIDED BELOW 5 FT IN THE COASTAL WATERS THANKS
TO SLY FLOW. HAVE CANCELLED SCA HEADLINES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...THE LULL WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. SOLID SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
A STRONG NWLY SURGE ARRIVES OVER THE WATER. STRONG GRADIENT WILL
PRODUCE 35-40 KT 925MB WINDS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY OVER THE WATER.
WILL LEAVE AS SCA ATTM...BUT WILL RE-EVALUATE FOR THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST PACKAGE.

PREV DISCUSSION...
LIGHT WINDS AROUND 5 KT ARE GRADUALLY TURNING FROM EAST
TO SOUTH AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE OFFSHORE.
MEANWHILE...A SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
MORNING AND THEN CROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTN/EVENING. AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES THE WATERS THIS AFTN...WINDS WILL BECOME SW AND
INCREASE TO 10-15 KT. A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT MAY BE POSSIBLE
OVER CHES BAY/CURRITUCK SOUND DURING THIS TIME...BUT AM STILL
ANTICIPATING PREDOMINANT CONDITIONS TO BE SUB-SCA. MEANWHILE FOR
TODAY...ONSHORE SWELL WITH 10-11 SECOND PERIODS WILL PREVENT SEAS
FROM SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FT FOR THE GREATER PART OF
TODAY...ESPECIALLY OUT NEAR 20 NM. THEREFORE SCA FLAGS FOR ALL
COASTAL WATERS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TODAY. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS OF 25-35 KT. THE
FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS THIS EVENING AND PUSHES OFFSHORE AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF STRONG POST-FRONTAL SCA CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED DUE TO A DECENT CAA SURGE LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. A FAVORABLE NW WIND DIRECTION WILL FURTHER ENHANCE WIND
SPEEDS...BUT WILL GENERALLY PREVENT SEAS FROM BUILDING ANY HIGHER
THAN 5-6 FT...WITH 3-4 FT WAVES ON THE BAY (LOCALLY UP TO 5 FT SRN
BAY LATE TONIGHT) AND 2-3 FT ON THE RIVERS. WILL SEE A
SECONDARY...ALBEIT WEAKER... COLD AIR SURGE WED NIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY GRADUALLY IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY THU
(ALTHOUGH TRENDS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER TO BUILD A SFC RIDGE INTO THE
REGION SO IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY BREEZY IN NW FLOW THROUGH THU AFTN
FOR NRN COASTAL WATERS IN PARTICULAR). HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA FROM THE WEST BY LATE THU AFTN INTO FRI.

SCA FLAGS FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS WERE EXTENDED THROUGH WED NIGHT
FOR A COMBINATION OF WINDS AND SEAS. ADDITIONAL FLAGS WERE HOISTED
FOR THE BAY/SOUND/RIVERS BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND
PERSISTING INTO EARLY WED EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STRONG NW
SURGE TONIGHT AND CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS ON WED BEFORE WINDS
DIMINISH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING...PRODUCING A
FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. GENERALLY LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON ALREADY DRY FUELS.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY...AND AFTER
COORDINATION WITH STATE FIRE OFFICIALS/NEIGHBORING OFFICES...WILL GO
AHEAD AND ISSUE A FIRE WX WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VA AND THE LOWER MD EASTER SHORE.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE STRONGEST (20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
35-40 MPH) ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM FVX-PTB-LFI...AND THIS IS
WHERE THE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. FARTHER SOUTH...WINDS WILL NOT BE
AS STRONG (10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH)...SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAN
TOWARD AN SPS FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER INSTEAD. WILL LET CURRENT LINE
OF SHOWERS CLEAR THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE ISSUING THE SPS.
WILL LIKELY UPGRADE THE FIRE WX WATCH TO A RED FLAG EITHER LATE THIS
EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. MIN RH VALUES WED AFTN WILL DROP TO BETWEEN
20-30% FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

DRY CONDITIONS (MIN RH VALUES 20-25%) WILL OCCUR AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG. THIS WILL LIKELY
PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR ANY FIRE WX STATEMENTS...EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER
MD EASTERN SHORE WHERE WINDS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR VAZ048-049-061>064-069>078-081>086-089>091-
     094-099-100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...BMD/SAM
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KRNK 221946
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
346 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD EASTWARD LATER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER ON GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS NOT UNTIL FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...

COLD FRONT JUST WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY
JUMP TO THE EASTERN LEE TROUGH AND PUSH EAST OF THE CWA EARLY THIS
EVENING. THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY SOME LEFTOVER ISOLATED SHRA BANDS
WEST INCLUDING UPSLOPE -SHRA ALONG THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES UNTIL
AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO. OTRW MAIN CONCERN WITH PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF
SHRA/TSRA THAT SHOULD EXIT THE SE AROUND PACKAGE RELEASE TIME...WITH
HIGH POPS QUICKLY TRANSLATING TO DRYING AS DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW KICKS
IN BEHIND THE BAND OF SHRA. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AND INCREASE
AGAIN FROM THE NW AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN THE DEEPER 85H COLD ADVECTION
ARRIVES AND THE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW AND LOW
PRESSURE OFF NEW ENGLAND INCREASES. MAY BRIEFLY REACH WIND ADVISORY
LEVELS ACROSS THE NW NC RIDGES ESPCLY AROUND DAWN BUT HOLDING SPEEDS
JUST BELOW CRITERIA FOR NOW WITH THE PROGGED LOW LEVEL JET OF ONLY
AROUND 40 KTS. WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET MOS ON TEMPS GIVEN
MIXING WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW ON WEDNESDAY WITH
GUSTY NW WINDS AND CHILLY AIR ALOFT MAKING FOR A COOL BUT
BREEZY/WINDY DAY DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. STRONG EARLY MORNING
SUBSIDENCE AND ONSET OF DEEPER MIXING MAY AGAIN PUSH WINDS CLOSE TO
ADVISORY LEVELS NW NC RIDGES BEFORE THE GRADIENT STARTS TO WEAKEN.
OTRW SUNNY WITH HIGHS STUCK IN THE COOL 50S TO LOWER 60S MOUNTAINS
TO MID/UPPER 60S EAST WHERE AIDED BY DOWNSLOPE AND HEATING OF DRY
AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA WILL PASS ACROSS THE
APPALACHIAN CHAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...PROVIDING DRY
WEATHER UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT ENOUGH TOWARD SUNRISE THURSDAY THAT WILL SEE POCKETS OF FROST
DEVELOP EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID
30S...WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT ACROSS OUR AREA DURING EARLY AFTERNOON...
AND WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY AS THE AXIS OF HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF OUR AREA...EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REACH
INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE THURSDAY EVENING AS OUR NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND WARMER AIR BUILDING IN FROM THE GULF WILL KEEP THURSDAY NIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S. BY SUNRISE...SHOWERS WILL BE MAKING THEIR
WAY INTO SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE AS A
TROUGH/VERY WEAK FRONT ADVANCES EAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN.
MAY SEE A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS DEVELOP INTO THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY AT
THIS POINT APPEARS RATHER MARGINAL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
EXIT THE AREA TO THE EAST DURING THE EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ALONG THE GULF COAST MAINTAINING A MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...

MODELS START TO BECOME DIVERGENT ON SATURDAY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE
IN TAKING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS FLIP-FLOPPED FROM ITS PREVIOUS FORECAST
SOLUTION...STALLING THE FRONT NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. THIS REMAINS
A LOW CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FORECAST BUT...IN EITHER CASE...BOTH
MODELS HAVE OUR AREA RELATIVELY DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT AS OUR NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS... BRINGING RAIN TO THE
AREA ON MONDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S FOR SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY...WITH RAIN BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S FOR MONDAY. THE OVERNIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT PERHAPS THE DEEPER VALLEY BOTTOMS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1220 PM EDT TUESDAY...

BROKEN PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF -SHRA CONTINUES TO SHIFT SE ACROSS THE
WEST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST RAINFALL REMAINING SOUTH/WEST
OF THE TAF SITES. THIS SHOULD KEEP OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS GOING
FOR A WHILE LONGER AS WESTERLY WINDS TEND TO ERODE THE EASTWARD
PUSH OF THE PRECIP. HOWEVER EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN BOTH
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OVER THE SW SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN
EVENTUAL JUMP OUT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY 19Z/3PM. OTRW BEST
CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE AT BLF/LWB WITH LOWERING CIGS
UNDER UPSLOPE FLOW AND LIGHTER SHOWERS. BAND OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ALONG THE LYH-DAN CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS ALSO POSSIBLE BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT. COULD SEE BRIEF STRONG WINDS IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP.

THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS EVENING...RESULTING IN A
RETURN TO VFR WEATHER AND GUSTY NW WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. ONLY EXCEPTION IS THE POTENTIAL OF SOME MVFR CIGS AND
SPOTTY -SHRA LINGERING OVER THE FAR WESTERN UPSLOPE SITES IN SE
WEST VA. PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE...AND AGAIN WITH STRONG
MIXING WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO AND OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD VFR LIKELY. ANOTHER FAST MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS MOVE EAST WITH
THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH VFR EXPECTED UNDER GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING BRINGING AN
END TO MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. STRONG NW WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 40 MPH
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH ANOTHER QUICK DROP IN HUMIDITY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS MAY LEAD TO ENHANCED FIRE DANGER ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN VIRGINIA WHERE ONLY VERY LIGHT
RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS ALSO
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO MORE CRITICAL LEVELS WITH GOOD DRYING
OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
IN VIRGINIA ON WEDNESDAY.

VERY DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON THURSDAY WHICH PRESENTS THE
NEXT BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR PRESCRIBED BURNS DESPITE ONLY LIGHT
MIXING AND WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS AS THE FLOW TURNS BACK TO THE SW.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-047.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PC
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...JH/KK/PC
FIRE WEATHER...JH




000
FXUS61 KLWX 221914
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
314 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 998 MB LOW JUST NORTH OF THE ADIRONDACKS.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS TO THE SW OF THE LOW IN CENTRAL NY-WRN PA AND
BACK TOWARD THE OH RVR.

A BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND MOISTURE
PLUME WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD THRU THE I-95 CORRIDOR BEFORE
MOVING EAST OF THE CHSPK BAY LATE THIS AFTN. FARTHER UPSTREAM...A
NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD FRONT NEAR
PIT. HI-RES REFLECTIVITY MODELS THAT CAPTURED THIS CONVECTION
SIMULATE THIS LINE TO REACH THE ALLEGHENY FRONT BY 4 OR 5 PM BEFORE
MOVING SEWD THRU PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE ERY EVE. KEPT POPS
HIGHEST ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE THE BEST FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRUSH. TSTM
POTENTIAL IS LOW WITH PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER LIMITING
DESTABILIZATION.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE AREA THIS EVE. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL
USHER IN COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST
TO EAST TNGT AS WELL...ALTHOUGH STRATOCU WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY
CLOUDY ALONG THE WRN SIDE OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW.
WINDS WILL STAY MIXED SO ADVECTION WILL BE MAIN SOURCE OF AIRMASS
COOLING TNGT. MIN TEMPS TNGT RANGE FROM THE NEAR 30F IN THE WRN
HIGHLANDS TO MID AND UPPER 40S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

HIPRES BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WED. PRESSURE RISES WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY BREEZY NW WINDS THAT GUST 30-40 MPH DURING THE
DAY. COLD AIRMASS WILL BE MODERATED A BIT BY THE HIGH SUN ANGLE.
FCST WEIGHTED TOWARD THE WARMER BIAS CORRECT MARV GUIDANCE WITH
SUNNY SKIES AND DOWNSLOPING FLOW. MAX TEMPS GENERALLY RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S EXCEPT FOR COOLER HIGHS IN THE 40S ALONG
HIGHER ELEVATIONS RIDGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE MOVING TOWARDS NEWFOUNDLAND WED NIGHT AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC FROM THE WEST. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE GUSTY WINDS WEDNESDAY WILL
DEPART TO OUR EAST WED EVENING. TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOW 30S WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE AS CLEARING AND CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO
DROP. ELSEWHERE...MID TO UPPER 30S EXPECTED TO AROUND 40 IN THE
METROS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE OVERHEAD THURSDAY RESULTING IN A SUNNY
DAY WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S. A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL APPROACH THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVES OFF THE
COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL
REACH 70-75 DEGREES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE APPALACHIANS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...ACCOMPANIED BY A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND
STRONG PRESSURE SURGE/COLD ADVECTION WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TO
BEGIN THE WEEKEND. THE BOUNDARY LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED...SO ANY
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG THE
MASON-DIXON LINE CLOSEST TO THE FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SATURDAY. THUS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO THESE AREAS.

AT THE MOMENT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER WITH
THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE FRONT. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
APPEARING INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING
THE STRONGEST WINDS ACCOMPANYING THE PRESSURE SURGE WILL OCCUR
DURING PEAK HEATING WHEN LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPEST AND MIXING DOWN
HIGHER WIND GUSTS WOULD BE EASIEST.

WINDS DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES OVER THE REGION...BUT ITS STAY OVER OUR AREA IS
SHORT-LIVED AS A LARGE AND SLOW-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACH
FROM THE WEST BRINGING A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LGT SHRA AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS SHIFTED EAST OF IAD AND WILL IMPACT
DCA/BWI/MTN THRU ABOUT 21Z. INTENSITY HAS BEEN SO LGT THAT NO FLGT
RESTRICTION WERE ACCOMPANIED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED
OUT OF THE WEST AS THESE SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH MOVE THRU
BUT WILL BE LGT UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THRU THIS EVE. ANY TSRA
WITH THE FRONT THIS EVE WILL BE LOCALIZED AND PROBS TOO CHANCE TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. NW WINDS 10-15 KT WILL GUST TO 25 KT BEHIND THE
FRONT THRU MUCH OF TNGT. NW WINDS INCREASE ON WED DUE TO DAYTIME
MIXING WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT POSSIBLE. VFR ON WED.

NW FLOW WILL SUBSIDE WED NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT
THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS MAY CROSS THE TERMINALS FRIDAY.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS AND WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10
KNOTS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS INCREASING TO
BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS THRU TNGT. SCA LVL REPORTS ONLY
ISOLATED THUS FAR BUT ANY SHOWERS MOVING THRU COULD DRAG DOWN
LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS. WINDS BECOME GUSTY FOLLOWING A COLD FROPA
DURING THE MID TO LATE EVE AND INTO THE OVNGT. WIDESPREAD SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT
WEDNESDAY FOR ALL OF THE WATERS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY. THE GALE WARNING MAY BE ABLE TO BE DOWNGRADING
SOMETIME DURING THE AFTN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ASSOCIATED
WIND FIELD WEAKENS A BIT.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND A
SCA IS IN EFFECT. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE FROM WEST TO EAST THEREFORE THE
SCA FOR THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC WILL DROP LATE WED NIGHT. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO CAUSE SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BAY INTO THURSDAY. A SCA
MAY BE EXTENDED FOR THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
WATERS FRIDAY.

A PERIOD OF HIGH-END SMALL CRAFT ARE EXPECTED BEHIND A STRONG BUT
MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT SATURDAY. WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE
NIGHT SATURDAY AND LIKELY DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. A DEEP
MIXING LAYER WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER AIR TO MIX DOWN...CAUSING LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS...LOW FUEL MOISTURE AND
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR THE SPREAD OF
WILDFIRES WEDNESDAY. AFTER COORDINATION WITH STATE OFFICIALS AND
SURROUNDING WFOS...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS ISSUED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
POSITIVE TIDAL ANOMALIES REMAIN STEADY AROUND THREE-QUARTERS OF A
FOOT THIS AFTN. SLY WINDS WILL BECOME WLY WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HRS
AND ANOMALIES WILL DECREASE SUBSEQUENTLY.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. BLOWOUT TIDES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR DCZ001.
MD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ003>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-502.
VA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR VAZ025>031-036>040-042-050>057-501-502-504.
WV...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR WVZ050>053-055-502-504-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ530>534-537>543.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JRK
NEAR TERM...JRK
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...JRK/HAS/DFH
MARINE...JRK/HAS/DFH
FIRE WEATHER...JRK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JRK








000
FXUS61 KRNK 221913
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
313 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD EASTWARD LATER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER ON GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS NOT UNTIL FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...

COLD FRONT JUST WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY
JUMP TO THE EASTERN LEE TROUGH AND PUSH EAST OF THE CWA EARLY THIS
EVENING. THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY SOME LEFTOVER ISOLATED SHRA BANDS
WEST INCLUDING UPSLOPE -SHRA ALONG THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES UNTIL
AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO. OTRW MAIN CONCERN WITH PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF
SHRA/TSRA THAT SHOULD EXIT THE SE AROUND PACKAGE RELEASE TIME...WITH
HIGH POPS QUICKLY TRANSLATING TO DRYING AS DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW KICKS
IN BEHIND THE BAND OF SHRA. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AND INCREASE
AGAIN FROM THE NW AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN THE DEEPER 85H COLD ADVECTION
ARRIVES AND THE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW AND LOW
PRESSURE OFF NEW ENGLAND INCREASES. MAY BRIEFLY REACH WIND ADVISORY
LEVELS ACROSS THE NW NC RIDGES ESPCLY AROUND DAWN BUT HOLDING SPEEDS
JUST BELOW CRITERIA FOR NOW WITH THE PROGGED LOW LEVEL JET OF ONLY
AROUND 40 KTS. WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET MOS ON TEMPS GIVEN
MIXING WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW ON WEDNESDAY WITH
GUSTY NW WINDS AND CHILLY AIR ALOFT MAKING FOR A COOL BUT
BREEZY/WINDY DAY DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. STRONG EARLY MORNING
SUBSIDENCE AND ONSET OF DEEPER MIXING MAY AGAIN PUSH WINDS CLOSE TO
ADVISORY LEVELS NW NC RIDGES BEFORE THE GRADIENT STARTS TO WEAKEN.
OTRW SUNNY WITH HIGHS STUCK IN THE COOL 50S TO LOWER 60S MOUNTAINS
TO MID/UPPER 60S EAST WHERE AIDED BY DOWNSLOPE AND HEATING OF DRY
AIR.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND BE
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY WITH A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW BY THE
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO STREAM INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT AS THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT WITH PRESSURE RISES CONTINUING
ALONG WITH A 40-50KT CROSS-BARRIER JET OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING. BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE HIGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE
REGION...THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY THE EVENING...BECOMING CALM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL
BE AROUND 5F COOLER THAN NORMAL. WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DROP MOUNTAIN VALLEY TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 30S WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST
MAY DROP TO 40F WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH NO FROST EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
REBOUND QUICKLY TO NORMAL LEVELS THURSDAY WITH RANGES FROM THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE
50S AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...

DESPITE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT FRIDAY...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
WITH A DEEP SOUTHWEST/WEST FLOW...SHOULD CONTINUE THE TREND FOR
MODERATING TEMPS.

THE PATTERN FRIDAY APPEARS VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY`S...WITH A FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE WEST EARLY ON FRIDAY AND EXITING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE RACING NORTH TO INTERCEPT THE FRONT IN THE FAR
EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BE WHERE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAKE PLACE.

WHILE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION IS DELAYED UNTIL LATER SATURDAY...SO ANOTHER WARM DAY
IS ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

AFTER SATURDAY THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG RANGE
MODELS WITH THE GFS...CANADIAN AND GFS ENSEMBLES ALL KEEPING A SFC
FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WITH A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z/21
ECMWF KEEPS OUR AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THE GFS HAS SHOWN MORE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND THE LATEST GLOBAL
WIND OSCILLATION (GWO) PLOT FAVORS AN EASTERN U.S. TROF.
THEREFORE...NUDGED TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES AND KEPT AREA FREE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A QUICK LOOK AT THE 12Z ECMWF
SHOWS A TREND TOWARD THIS COOLER SOLUTION.

AS A SFC WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURNS...SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. CONFIDENCE ON
THE LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT AND CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1220 PM EDT TUESDAY...

BROKEN PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF -SHRA CONTINUES TO SHIFT SE ACROSS THE
WEST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST RAINFALL REMAINING SOUTH/WEST
OF THE TAF SITES. THIS SHOULD KEEP OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS GOING
FOR A WHILE LONGER AS WESTERLY WINDS TEND TO ERODE THE EASTWARD
PUSH OF THE PRECIP. HOWEVER EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN BOTH
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OVER THE SW SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN
EVENTUAL JUMP OUT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY 19Z/3PM. OTRW BEST
CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE AT BLF/LWB WITH LOWERING CIGS
UNDER UPSLOPE FLOW AND LIGHTER SHOWERS. BAND OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ALONG THE LYH-DAN CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS ALSO POSSIBLE BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT. COULD SEE BRIEF STRONG WINDS IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP.

THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS EVENING...RESULTING IN A
RETURN TO VFR WEATHER AND GUSTY NW WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. ONLY EXCEPTTION IS THE POTENTIAL OF SOME MVFR CIGS AND
SPOTTY -SHRA LINGERING OVER THE FAR WESTERN UPSLOPE SITES IN SE
WEST VA. PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE...AND AGAIN WITH STRONG
MIXING WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO AND OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD VFR LIKELY. ANOTHER FAST MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS MOVE EAST WITH
THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH VFR EXPECTED UNDER GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING BRINGING AN
END TO MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. STRONG NW WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 40 MPH
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH ANOTHER QUICK DROP IN HUMIDITY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS MAY LEAD TO ENHANCED FIRE DANGER ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN VIRGINIA WHERE ONLY VERY LIGHT
RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS ALSO
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO MORE CRITICAL LEVELS WITH GOOD DRYING
OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
IN VIRGINIA ON WEDNESDAY.

VERY DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON THURSDAY WHICH PRESENTS THE
NEXT BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR PRESCRIBED BURNS DESPITE ONLY LIGHT
MIXING AND WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS AS THE FLOW TURNS BACK TO THE SW.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-047.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PC
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...PH
AVIATION...JH/KK/PC
FIRE WEATHER...JH




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221745
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
145 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL CROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES A WEAK LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACRS THE
PIEDMONT AS SEEN IN OBS/PRESSURE FALLS. ACTUAL COLD FRONT STILL
ALONG WEST SLOPE OF THE APPALACHIANS.

DEEP LAYER SW FLOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE WSW LATER THIS
AFTN. AREA LAPS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INVERTED V PROFILE
THAT WOULD SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS IN ANY SHOWERS
AND TSTMS LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...THE FLOW BECOMING MORE WSW
TYPICALLY TENDS TO DECREASE AREAL COVERAGE AND WOULD ALSO INHIBIT
STORM ORGANIZATION TO SOME EXTENT. LATEST 12Z NAM SEEMS TO DEPICT
CURRENT CONDITIONS FAIRLY WELL AND SHOWS MUCH OF THE CURRENT
ACTIVITY OVER FAR NW ZONES DISSIPATING AS IT TRACKS TO THE EAST.
HAVE SCALED BACK ON POPS THROUGH 20Z (4 PM) ACRS SE VA/NE NC WHILE
MAINTAINING CHC TO LIKELY POPS ACRS THE FAR NW. WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY MAINLY CHC POPS FROM LATE AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING ACRS THE
CWA (WITH LIKELY POPS OVER THE NORTH)...AS AREA OF ACTIVITY
CURRENTLY OVER WRN NC AND ERN TN MOVES EAST. IN GENERAL...NOT A
LOT OF SUPPORT FOR SEVERE WX GIVEN A SHORT WINDOW WITH ML CAPES
EVEN GETTING TO 500-1000 J/KG BY LATE AFTN. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 25-30 KT AS WELL...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED STRONG STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 40-45 MPH GIVEN THE DEEP
MIXING. QPF AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN
INCH. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY GENERALLY WELL INTO THE 70S, WITH
A FEW LOWER 80S POSSIBLE WEST OF THE BAY.



TONIGHT...
SHOWERS/ISO THUNDERSTORMS PUSH OFFSHORE THIS EVENING W/ A QUICKLY
CLEARING SKY THROUGH MIDNIGHT, AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS
FROM FALLING AS QUICKLY AS PROGGED BY COOLER MAV GUIDANCE...SO
HAVE OPTED TOWARDS WARMER ENVELOPE OF MOS GUIDANCE ACROSS THE
BOARD. EARLY MORNING LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND AND
OVER THE EASTERN SHORE...TO LOW 50S SE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODIFYING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW ON WED, AS NW
FLOW PERSISTS. REMNANT MID LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH (LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE) WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON
CU OVER THE LOCAL AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEASTERN COASTAL ZONES.
LOCAL THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATE HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S
OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER, WITH DEWPOINTS WILL MIX INTO THE UPR
20S/LOW 30S (YIELDING MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE MID 20S INLAND) AND
WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT, BUMPED TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S INLAND, WITH LOWER 60S OVER THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE. CONCERN
DOES EXIST FOR FIRE WX CONDITIONS WED...SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW
FOR DETAILS. EARLY MORNING LOWS THU MORNING IN THE U30S TO AROUND
40...UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY.

DRY AGAIN ON THU AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE REGION, BEFORE
SLIDING OFF OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE THU/ERY FRIDAY. HIGHS THURS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S. ONCE AGAIN, MIN RH VALUES FALL INTO THE
20S THU AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRANSITION TO A MORE
AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY PATTERN BY DAYS 6-7. SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE
THURS NIGHT...VEERING THE FLOW AROUND TO THE SOUTH AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVERHEAD. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT...BUT CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE NRN PLAINS
THURS NIGHT. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
LIFTING A WARM FRONT OVER THE REGION IN THE AMPLIFYING FLOW FRI
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION SAT. WLY
FLOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE GULF STATES WILL LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE APPALACHIANS. DEWPOINTS ONLY PROGGED TO WARM INTO THE LOW-MID
50S FRI. BEST DYNAMICS WILL ALSO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AS
ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...INCREASING
SPEEDS ALOFT AND SMALL AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES WILL BE ENOUGH TO
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS ALONG THE FRONT ATTM.
WITH THE LOCAL AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR FRI...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO
THE MID-UPPER 70S (NEAR 80 INLAND). WARM TEMPS COMBINED WITH LOW
LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL MAINTAIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON. THUS WILL CARRY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER. SRN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL OVER
THE CAROLINAS FRI NIGHT-SAT IN WLY FLOW ALOFT.

SHOULD REMAIN WARM SAT AS LOW LEVEL WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
PERSISTS...THUS DELAYING COOLER AIRMASS UNTIL SAT NIGHT. HAVE GONE
ON WARM EDGE OF GUIDANCE IN THIS PATTERN WITH HIGHS AGAIN MAINLY
75-80 F. LOOKS DRY AS WELL WITH DYNAMICS WELL TO THE NORTH
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED LATE DAY SHOWER COULD BRUSH NORTHERN ZONES.
MORE SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT ARISES SUN/MON AS THE GFS IS
MUCH COOLER BUT DRY AS A DEEP UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NE
STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND...WHILE THE ECMWF IS LESS AMPLIFIED AND
EVEN DEPICTS A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHING BACK INTO
REGION BY MON. RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SOLUTION AT THIS
TIME SO HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO WPC AND GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS.
WENT DRY SUN...THEN BRING SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHC
POP BY MON AREA-WIDE. HIGH GENLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LOWS
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BAND OF PRE-FRONTAL SHWRS NOW CROSSING THE PIEDMONT HAVE THE BEST
CHC OF REACHING KRIC/KSBY OVER THE NEXT SVRL HRS SO HAVE ADDED A
2-3 HR TEMPO GROUP THERE. OTW...KEPT VCSH ACROSS SERN TAF SITES AFTR
20Z GIVING THE LATEST TRENDS OF THE PCPN WEAKENING AS IT CROSSES THE
MTS. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT THUNDER IN ATTM...
BEST LOCATION FOR ANY THUNDER TO OCCUR WOULD BE ACROSS SERN TAF SITES
BEFORE 00Z. OTW...SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE EXPECTED AS THE
ACTUAL COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS EVENING. SKIES CLR BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY AFTR 06Z. STRONG CAA SETS IN LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH NW WINDS INCRG TO BTWN 15-25 KTS BY 12Z. HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE DELMARVA AND SERN COASTAL AREAS WEDNESDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY WITH SCT SHWRS/TSTRMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS HAVE FINALLY SUBSIDED BELOW 5 FT IN THE COASTAL WATERS THANKS
TO SLY FLOW. HAVE CANCELLED SCA HEADLINES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...THE LULL WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. SOLID SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
A STRONG NWLY SURGE ARRIVES OVER THE WATER. STRONG GRADIENT WILL
PRODUCE 35-40 KT 925MB WINDS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY OVER THE WATER.
WILL LEAVE AS SCA ATTM...BUT WILL RE-EVALUATE FOR THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST PACKAGE.

PREV DISCUSSION...
LIGHT WINDS AROUND 5 KT ARE GRADUALLY TURNING FROM EAST
TO SOUTH AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE OFFSHORE.
MEANWHILE...A SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
MORNING AND THEN CROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTN/EVENING. AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES THE WATERS THIS AFTN...WINDS WILL BECOME SW AND
INCREASE TO 10-15 KT. A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT MAY BE POSSIBLE
OVER CHES BAY/CURRITUCK SOUND DURING THIS TIME...BUT AM STILL
ANTICIPATING PREDOMINANT CONDITIONS TO BE SUB-SCA. MEANWHILE FOR
TODAY...ONSHORE SWELL WITH 10-11 SECOND PERIODS WILL PREVENT SEAS
FROM SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FT FOR THE GREATER PART OF
TODAY...ESPECIALLY OUT NEAR 20 NM. THEREFORE SCA FLAGS FOR ALL
COASTAL WATERS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TODAY. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS OF 25-35 KT. THE
FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS THIS EVENING AND PUSHES OFFSHORE AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF STRONG POST-FRONTAL SCA CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED DUE TO A DECENT CAA SURGE LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. A FAVORABLE NW WIND DIRECTION WILL FURTHER ENHANCE WIND
SPEEDS...BUT WILL GENERALLY PREVENT SEAS FROM BUILDING ANY HIGHER
THAN 5-6 FT...WITH 3-4 FT WAVES ON THE BAY (LOCALLY UP TO 5 FT SRN
BAY LATE TONIGHT) AND 2-3 FT ON THE RIVERS. WILL SEE A
SECONDARY...ALBEIT WEAKER... COLD AIR SURGE WED NIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY GRADUALLY IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY THU
(ALTHOUGH TRENDS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER TO BUILD A SFC RIDGE INTO THE
REGION SO IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY BREEZY IN NW FLOW THROUGH THU AFTN
FOR NRN COASTAL WATERS IN PARTICULAR). HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA FROM THE WEST BY LATE THU AFTN INTO FRI.

SCA FLAGS FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS WERE EXTENDED THROUGH WED NIGHT
FOR A COMBINATION OF WINDS AND SEAS. ADDITIONAL FLAGS WERE HOISTED
FOR THE BAY/SOUND/RIVERS BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND
PERSISTING INTO EARLY WED EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STRONG NW
SURGE TONIGHT AND CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS ON WED BEFORE WINDS
DIMINISH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT, BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY OF A WIDESPREAD WETTING
RAIN IS NOT ALL THAT GOOD. DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MIN RH VALUES DROPPING TO BETWEEN 25-30% FOR
MOST LOCATIONS...AND 20FT WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 15-20 MPH WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30 MPH. THESE CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH
THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN FOR ALMOST A WEEK MAY ENHANCE THE
THREAT FOR WILDFIRES ON WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE
ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT WHERE MIN RH VALUES WILL BE THE
LOWEST...AND WHERE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF RAIN HAS FALLEN RECENTLY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD/SAM
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KRNK 221641
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1241 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON ACCOMPANIED BY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD EASTWARD BY WEDNESDAY BRINGING A
DRY...WINDY AND COOLER DAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS
NOT UNTIL FRIDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT TUESDAY...

COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING WITH A
PRECEDING BAND OF SHOWERS ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA DENOTED
BY A SLIGHTLY ENHANCED BAND OF CLOUDS OFF VIS PICS. THIS PRE-
FRONTAL BAND LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN FOCUS OF ANY ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ESPCLY AS IT CROSSES THE BLUE
RIDGE AFTER MIDDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS BRIEF LOW LEVEL BACKING
FROM THE SRN BLUE RIDGE EAST ALONG WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND
A SLIGHTLY HIGHER AXIS OF 85H THETA-E SNEAKING INTO THE
FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT. HOWEVER CURRENT INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM THE
WEST LIKELY TO LIMIT CAPE AS WELL AS THE DEEP WESTERLY FLOW SEEN
OFF MORNING SOUNDINGS. LATEST HRRR AND THE LOCAL RNK-WRF REMAIN
MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING AT LEAST SOME SCTD SHRA/ISOLD TSRA
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE INTO NW NC AFTER 18Z/2PM AS A FAINT IMPULSE
NOW OVER ERN TN SHEARS EAST. HOWEVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO
REMAINS LIMITED PER CURRENT DEWPOINTS SO ONLY HOLDING ONTO LIKELY
POPS FOR NOW TO SEE HOW THINGS UNFOLD WITH BEST QPF OVER THE SW
AND LEAST OVER THE NORTH. OTRW TRIMMING POPS BACK A BIT SOONER FAR
WEST WHILE ADJUSTING TIMING CENTRAL/EAST. LEFT TEMPS CLOSE TO
CURRENT VALUES EXCEPT LOWERING SOME NW PER CURRENT CLDNS AND LIGHT
SHOWERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 355 AM EDT TUESDAY...

EARLY MORNING REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA BUT THESE ARE SO FAR DRYING UP
AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO DRIER AIR MASS ACROSS OUR REGION. THE COLD
FRONT REMAINS ON TRACK TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS BY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AND ALONG
IT. FORECAST SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO REMAIN MODEST
WITH SREF MEMBERS AND OTHER MODELS SHOWING MEAN MLCAPES GENERALLY
IN 400-600 J/KG RANGE...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR LESS THAN 30 KTS AT TIME
OF MAXIMUM HEATING AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES LESS THAN 7C. SPC DAY
1 OUTLOOK HAS THE REGION WELL WITHIN A SEE TEXT OR MARGINAL CHANCE
OF SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON NOTING THE WEAK FORCING EXPECTED. BEST
CHANCES FOR ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE IN FAR EAST IF
EARLY SOLAR HEATING IS ABLE TO BEAT THE INCOMING CLOUD COVER FOR A
FEW HOURS AND GENERATE SOME INSTABILITY. DRY AIR WHICH HAS BEEN
HOLDING TOUGH ALL NIGHT WILL BE FINALLY DISPLACED BY MODEST
NORTHWARD SURGE OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF FRONT WITH FORECAST PWATS
BRIEFLY REACHING 1 INCH IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER QPF ALSO
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED WITH RELATIVELY DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE
CONVECTION AND STEADY EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT. GENERALLY
EXPECTING TOTAL AMOUNTS FROM 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES. WINDS SHIFT INTO
WEST QUICKLY BEHIND FRONT AND SHARPLY COOLER AIR MOVES IN
OVERNIGHT WITH UPPER 30S IN THE FAR NW TO LOW 50S IN THE EAST BY
WED MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY
AND BE OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY WITH A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW BY THE
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO STREAM INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT AS THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT WITH PRESSURE RISES CONTINUING
ALONG WITH A 40-50KT CROSS-BARRIER JET OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING. BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE HIGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE
REGION...THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY THE EVENING...BECOMING CALM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL
BE AROUND 5F COOLER THAN NORMAL. WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DROP MOUNTAIN VALLEY TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 30S WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST
MAY DROP TO 40F WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH NO FROST EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
REBOUND QUICKLY TO NORMAL LEVELS THURSDAY WITH RANGES FROM THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE
50S AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...

DESPITE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT FRIDAY...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
WITH A DEEP SOUTHWEST/WEST FLOW...SHOULD CONTINUE THE TREND FOR
MODERATING TEMPS.

THE PATTERN FRIDAY APPEARS VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY`S...WITH A FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE WEST EARLY ON FRIDAY AND EXITING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE RACING NORTH TO INTERCEPT THE FRONT IN THE FAR
EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BE WHERE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAKE PLACE.

WHILE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION IS DELAYED UNTIL LATER SATURDAY...SO ANOTHER WARM DAY
IS ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

AFTER SATURDAY THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG RANGE
MODELS WITH THE GFS...CANADIAN AND GFS ENSEMBLES ALL KEEPING A SFC
FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WITH A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z/21
ECMWF KEEPS OUR AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THE GFS HAS SHOWN MORE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND THE LATEST GLOBAL
WIND OSCILLATION (GWO) PLOT FAVORS AN EASTERN U.S. TROF.
THEREFORE...NUDGED TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES AND KEPT AREA FREE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A QUICK LOOK AT THE 12Z ECMWF
SHOWS A TREND TOWARD THIS COOLER SOLUTION.

AS A SFC WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURNS...SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. CONFIDENCE ON
THE LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT AND CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1220 PM EDT TUESDAY...

BROKEN PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF -SHRA CONTINUES TO SHIFT SE ACROSS THE
WEST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST RAINFALL REMAINING SOUTH/WEST
OF THE TAF SITES. THIS SHOULD KEEP OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS GOING
FOR A WHILE LONGER AS WESTERLY WINDS TEND TO ERODE THE EASTWARD
PUSH OF THE PRECIP. HOWEVER EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN BOTH
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OVER THE SW SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN
EVENTUAL JUMP OUT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY 19Z/3PM. OTRW BEST
CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE AT BLF/LWB WITH LOWERING CIGS
UNDER UPSLOPE FLOW AND LIGHTER SHOWERS. BAND OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ALONG THE LYH-DAN CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS ALSO POSSIBLE BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT. COULD SEE BRIEF STRONG WINDS IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP.

THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS EVENING...RESULTING IN A
RETURN TO VFR WEATHER AND GUSTY NW WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. ONLY EXCEPTTION IS THE POTENTIAL OF SOME MVFR CIGS AND
SPOTTY -SHRA LINGERING OVER THE FAR WESTERN UPSLOPE SITES IN SE
WEST VA. PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE...AND AGAIN WITH STRONG
MIXING WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO AND OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD VFR LIKELY. ANOTHER FAST MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS MOVE EAST WITH
THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH VFR EXPECTED UNDER GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 945 AM EDT TUESDAY...

COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH MODEST
RAINFALL RANGING FROM LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES IN THE PIEDMONT UP TO
AROUND 0.25 INCHES IN THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS NORTH
CAROLINA FOOTHILLS. STRONG NW WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG WITH ANOTHER
QUICK DROP IN HUMIDITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY LEAD TO
ENHANCED FIRE DANGER ESPECIALLY IF LESS WETTING RAINFALL IS
REALIZED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR PRESCRIBED BURNS WHERE GOOD DRYING
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST...AND WHERE TRANSPORT WINDS WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE DUE TO BETTER TRANSPORT AND CONSISTENCY OF DIRECTION
WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PC
NEAR TERM...JH/PC
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...PH
AVIATION...JH/KK/PC
FIRE WEATHER...JH/KK




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221614
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1214 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL CROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES A WEAK LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACRS THE
PIEDMONT AS SEEN IN OBS/PRESSURE FALLS. ACTUAL COLD FRONT STILL
ALONG WEST SLOPE OF THE APPALACHIANS.

DEEP LAYER SW FLOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE WSW LATER THIS
AFTN. AREA LAPS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INVERTED V PROFILE
THAT WOULD SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS IN ANY SHOWERS
AND TSTMS LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...THE FLOW BECOMING MORE WSW
TYPICALLY TENDS TO DECREASE AREAL COVERAGE AND WOULD ALSO INHIBIT
STORM ORGANIZATION TO SOME EXTENT. LATEST 12Z NAM SEEMS TO DEPICT
CURRENT CONDITIONS FAIRLY WELL AND SHOWS MUCH OF THE CURRENT
ACTIVITY OVER FAR NW ZONES DISSIPATING AS IT TRACKS TO THE EAST.
HAVE SCALED BACK ON POPS THROUGH 20Z (4 PM) ACRS SE VA/NE NC WHILE
MAINTAINING CHC TO LIKELY POPS ACRS THE FAR NW. WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY MAINLY CHC POPS FROM LATE AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING ACRS THE
CWA (WITH LIKELY POPS OVER THE NORTH)...AS AREA OF ACTIVITY
CURRENTLY OVER WRN NC AND ERN TN MOVES EAST. IN GENERAL...NOT A
LOT OF SUPPORT FOR SEVERE WX GIVEN A SHORT WINDOW WITH ML CAPES
EVEN GETTING TO 500-1000 J/KG BY LATE AFTN. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 25-30 KT AS WELL...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED STRONG STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 40-45 MPH GIVEN THE DEEP
MIXING. QPF AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN
INCH. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY GENERALLY WELL INTO THE 70S, WITH
A FEW LOWER 80S POSSIBLE WEST OF THE BAY.



TONIGHT...
SHOWERS/ISO THUNDERSTORMS PUSH OFFSHORE THIS EVENING W/ A QUICKLY
CLEARING SKY THROUGH MIDNIGHT, AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS
FROM FALLING AS QUICKLY AS PROGGED BY COOLER MAV GUIDANCE...SO
HAVE OPTED TOWARDS WARMER ENVELOPE OF MOS GUIDANCE ACROSS THE
BOARD. EARLY MORNING LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND AND
OVER THE EASTERN SHORE...TO LOW 50S SE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODIFYING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW ON WED, AS NW
FLOW PERSISTS. REMNANT MID LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH (LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE) WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON
CU OVER THE LOCAL AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEASTERN COASTAL ZONES.
LOCAL THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATE HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S
OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER, WITH DEWPOINTS WILL MIX INTO THE UPR
20S/LOW 30S (YIELDING MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE MID 20S INLAND) AND
WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT, BUMPED TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S INLAND, WITH LOWER 60S OVER THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE. CONCERN
DOES EXIST FOR FIRE WX CONDITIONS WED...SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW
FOR DETAILS. EARLY MORNING LOWS THU MORNING IN THE U30S TO AROUND
40...UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY.

DRY AGAIN ON THU AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE REGION, BEFORE
SLIDING OFF OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE THU/ERY FRIDAY. HIGHS THURS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S. ONCE AGAIN, MIN RH VALUES FALL INTO THE
20S THU AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRANSITION TO A MORE
AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY PATTERN BY DAYS 6-7. SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE
THURS NIGHT...VEERING THE FLOW AROUND TO THE SOUTH AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVERHEAD. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT...BUT CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE NRN PLAINS
THURS NIGHT. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
LIFTING A WARM FRONT OVER THE REGION IN THE AMPLIFYING FLOW FRI
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION SAT. WLY
FLOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE GULF STATES WILL LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE APPALACHIANS. DEWPOINTS ONLY PROGGED TO WARM INTO THE LOW-MID
50S FRI. BEST DYNAMICS WILL ALSO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AS
ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...INCREASING
SPEEDS ALOFT AND SMALL AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES WILL BE ENOUGH TO
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS ALONG THE FRONT ATTM.
WITH THE LOCAL AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR FRI...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO
THE MID-UPPER 70S (NEAR 80 INLAND). WARM TEMPS COMBINED WITH LOW
LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL MAINTAIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON. THUS WILL CARRY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER. SRN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL OVER
THE CAROLINAS FRI NIGHT-SAT IN WLY FLOW ALOFT.

SHOULD REMAIN WARM SAT AS LOW LEVEL WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
PERSISTS...THUS DELAYING COOLER AIRMASS UNTIL SAT NIGHT. HAVE GONE
ON WARM EDGE OF GUIDANCE IN THIS PATTERN WITH HIGHS AGAIN MAINLY
75-80 F. LOOKS DRY AS WELL WITH DYNAMICS WELL TO THE NORTH
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED LATE DAY SHOWER COULD BRUSH NORTHERN ZONES.
MORE SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT ARISES SUN/MON AS THE GFS IS
MUCH COOLER BUT DRY AS A DEEP UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NE
STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND...WHILE THE ECMWF IS LESS AMPLIFIED AND
EVEN DEPICTS A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHING BACK INTO
REGION BY MON. RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SOLUTION AT THIS
TIME SO HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO WPC AND GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS.
WENT DRY SUN...THEN BRING SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHC
POP BY MON AREA-WIDE. HIGH GENLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LOWS
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 22/0540Z...LIGHT WINDS ARE GRADUALLY TURNING FROM EAST TO
SOUTH AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE OFFSHORE. MEANWHILE...
A SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BKN
CIGS AROUND 25 KFT AGL HAVE BEGUN TO OVERSPREAD THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO INTO TUE MORNING. THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA DURING TUE
AFTN/EVENING. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...POTENTIALLY
RESULTING IN BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO VIS/CIGS UNDER STRONGER STORM
CORES. THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME MORE SW-W
TODAY...WHICH WILL THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT WITH GUSTS OF
15-20 KT DURING THE AFTN. THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 KT WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS QUICKLY TURN TO THE
NW AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG THE
CHES BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS DUE TO POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR
ADVECTION. COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION ON WED...MAKING FOR A BREEZY DAY. AREAS WELL INLAND SHOULD
EXPERIENCE NW WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KT. AREAS CLOSER
TO THE CHES BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS (INCLUDING THE MD/VA EASTERN
SHORE) SHOULD EXPERIENCE NW WINDS OF 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS OF
25-30 KT. DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR
THROUGHOUT WED EVENING...BECOMING CALM INLAND BY 24/0400Z WHILE
SPEEDS STAY AROUND 10-15 KT NEAR THE COAST.

HIGH PRESSURE/DRY WX CONTINUES THU WITH NW WINDS TURNING TO THE W
DURING THE DAY. SPEEDS WILL STAY SOMEWHAT BREEZY NEAR THE COAST
AS A TIGHTENED SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE ARE ON FRI AND THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH PROBABILITIES LOOK RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS AROUND 5 KT ARE GRADUALLY TURNING FROM EAST TO SOUTH
AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE OFFSHORE. MEANWHILE...A SFC
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING AND THEN
CROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTN/EVENING. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE
WATERS THIS AFTN...WINDS WILL BECOME SW AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KT.
A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER CHES BAY/CURRITUCK
SOUND DURING THIS TIME...BUT AM STILL ANTICIPATING PREDOMINANT
CONDITIONS TO BE SUB-SCA. MEANWHILE FOR TODAY...ONSHORE SWELL WITH
10-11 SECOND PERIODS WILL PREVENT SEAS FROM SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FT
FOR THE GREATER PART OF TODAY...ESPECIALLY OUT NEAR 20 NM.
THEREFORE SCA FLAGS FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH TODAY. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS OF 25-35 KT. THE FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS
THIS EVENING AND PUSHES OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. A PERIOD
OF STRONG POST-FRONTAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED DUE TO A
DECENT CAA SURGE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A FAVORABLE NW WIND
DIRECTION WILL FURTHER ENHANCE WIND SPEEDS...BUT WILL GENERALLY
PREVENT SEAS FROM BUILDING ANY HIGHER THAN 5-6 FT...WITH 3-4 FT
WAVES ON THE BAY (LOCALLY UP TO 5 FT SRN BAY LATE TONIGHT) AND
2-3 FT ON THE RIVERS. WILL SEE A SECONDARY...ALBEIT WEAKER...
COLD AIR SURGE WED NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY GRADUALLY IMPROVING MARINE
CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY THU (ALTHOUGH TRENDS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER
TO BUILD A SFC RIDGE INTO THE REGION SO IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
BREEZY IN NW FLOW THROUGH THU AFTN FOR NRN COASTAL WATERS IN
PARTICULAR). HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST BY
LATE THU AFTN INTO FRI.

SCA FLAGS FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS WERE EXTENDED THROUGH WED NIGHT
FOR A COMBINATION OF WINDS AND SEAS. ADDITIONAL FLAGS WERE HOISTED
FOR THE BAY/SOUND/RIVERS BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND
PERSISTING INTO EARLY WED EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STRONG NW
SURGE TONIGHT AND CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS ON WED BEFORE WINDS
DIMINISH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT, BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY OF A WIDESPREAD WETTING
RAIN IS NOT ALL THAT GOOD. DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MIN RH VALUES DROPPING TO BETWEEN 25-30% FOR
MOST LOCATIONS...AND 20FT WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 15-20 MPH WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30 MPH. THESE CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH
THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN FOR ALMOST A WEEK MAY ENHANCE THE
THREAT FOR WILDFIRES ON WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE
ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT WHERE MIN RH VALUES WILL BE THE
LOWEST...AND WHERE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF RAIN HAS FALLEN RECENTLY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD
FIRE WEATHER...AKQ







000
FXUS61 KLWX 221433
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1033 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF
THE COAST FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND OH VLY AT
13Z. THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 1000 MB SFC LOW NEAR THE SRN
ONTARIO-QUEBEC BORDER. PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO THE MTS THIS MRNG IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LEADING MID-LVL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. UPSTREAM RADAR AND THE LATEST HI-RES MODEL
GUIDANCE  SUPPORT DECREASING POPS WITH THE FCST FOR TDA WITH
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. THIS WOULD MAKE
SENSE GIVEN THE BEST FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/JET STREAK AND SFC LOW REMAINING TO OUR NORTH.

12Z IAD RAOB REVEALED AN IMPRESSIVE LLVL INVERSION WITH THE WARM
NOSE OF 19C AT 950 MB. IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO MIX DOWN THIS WARMER
AIR. THEREFORE INCREASED MAX TEMPS FOR TDA ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
EVEN WITH THE CLOUD COVER TO CONTEND WITH. TEMPS THIS AFTN COULD
REACH THE LOWER 80S ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 WHERE STRONG HEATING THIS
MRNG WILL PRECEDE ARRIVAL OF DENSER CLOUDS THIS AFTN.

LLVL WINDS ARE FCST TO VEER MORE OUT OF THE WEST THIS AFTN BEHIND A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. EXPECT LOWER DEWPOINTS EAST OF THE MTS THAN WHAT
MODELS ARE INDICATING JUST PRIOR TO FROPA DUE TO DOWNSLOPING FLOW.
RAOB SOUNDINGS MODIFIED FOR A SFC TEMP NEAR 80F AND DEWPOINT NEAR
50F REVEAL MARGINAL INSTABILITY (SBCAPE AOB 500 J/KG) OWING TO THIS
LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AND WEAK MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THIS WILL FAVOR COVERAGE OF TSTMS ISOLATED AND TSTM INTENSITY
WEAK. THE OPPORTUNITY FOR TSTMS APPEAR TO BE LIMITED TO ALONG OR
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR A 2-4 HR WIND THIS AFTN IN THE MTS
AND DURING THE LATE AFTN/ERY EVE TOWARD THE I-95 AND THE CHSPK
BAY.

AS THE VORT MAX FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION NEARS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT...SOME OF THE GUSTIER PARTS OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL GET
MIXED DOWN TO THE SFC AND NW WINDS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA W/
GUSTS IN THE 20-30MPH RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHTTIME HRS. DEWPOINTS
WILL DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 30S AND TEMPS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE
40S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...W/ LOWER WIND CHILLS FROM THE GUSTY AND DRY
NW WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL CAUSE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS...AND MAX TEMPS WILL BE BELOW CLIMO DUE TO THE COLD
ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM THE 40S ALONG THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS...TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
60S NEAR WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE...TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE VIRGINIA
PIEDMONT. A DEEP MIXING LAYER AND STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
CAUSE NORTHWEST WINDS TO GUST FREQUENTLY BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CAUSING DRY AND
CHILLY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. MIN TEMPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 30 IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TO
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THURSDAY...BRINGING DRY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SUNSHINE. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY...BRINGING MORE CLOUDS
ALONG WITH THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SHOWERS.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY BEFORE PASSING
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING FLOW AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR MILD CONDITIONS SATURDAY. A COUPLE
SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR LOCATIONS NEAR
THE MASON-DIXON LINE...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL TURN OUT DRY SINCE
LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY.

THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY...POSSIBLY BRINGING
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE AREA NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MID AND HI CLOUDS HAVE BEEN STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST THIS MRNG
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. BRIEF PERIOD OF SHRA BEFORE 16Z AT MRB/CHO
AND BETWEEN 16-18Z FARTHER EAST. NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
WITH THESE LEADING SHRA. ANOTHER AREA OF SHRA AND ISO TSRA
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 18-21Z IN THE WRN TERMINALS AND 21-00Z FROM IAD
EWD. BRIEF/LOCAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE SOUTH UNTIL LATER THIS AFTN WHEN A
COLD FRONT SLIDES THRU AND TURNS WINDS BACK TO THE NW AND HIGHER
GUSTS IN THE 20-30KT RANGE APPEAR FOR THE LATE EVE/OVERNIGHT HRS.
CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT TONIGHT BUT WINDS WILL STAY BREEZY INTO
WED MRNG.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 30 TO 35 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
BEHIND A COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE TERMINALS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS FRIDAY...LIKELY
TRIGGERING A FEW SHOWERS. CIGS/VSBYS MAY APPROACH MVFR LEVELS DURING
THIS TIME. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE TERMINALS
SATURDAY...BUT MOST PLACES WILL END UP DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY FLOW WILL LAST FOR MUCH OF THE DAYTIME HRS...W/ SOME MINOR
CHANNELING BUT SUB-SCA UNTIL THIS AFTN. SHOWERS WILL CARRY ISOLATED
HIGHER WIND GUSTS THIS AFTN/EVE...THEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
BRING MORE WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS LATER THIS EVE. A FEW HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY...SO THE POTENTIAL
FOR HIGHER LOCALIZED WINDS EXISTS UNTIL A COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU
LATE TONIGHT...SPREADING MORE WIDESPREAD AND NW WINDS OVER THE
WATERS FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HRS...WELL INTO SCA RANGE.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY.
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY
ALSO BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS ON THURSDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS FRIDAY...LIKELY TRIGGERING
A FEW SHOWERS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS SATURDAY
BEFORE PASSING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FUEL MOISTURE REMAINS LOW THIS MORNING. THERE WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS
AROUND TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD
AVERAGE TO BE LESS THAN ONE-QUARTER INCH ACROSS MOST AREAS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. A DEEP
MIXING LAYER WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER AIR TO MIX DOWN...CAUSING LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS...LOW FUEL MOISTURE AND
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR THE SPREAD OF
WILDFIRES WEDNESDAY. DAY SHIFT HAS COORDINATE WITH STATE
CONTACTS ABOUT FUEL MOISTURE. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE
NECESSARY FOR TOMORROW AND WOULD BE ISSUED THIS AFTN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS CAUSED TIDAL ANOMALIES TO BE AROUND THREE-
QUARTERS OF A FOOT ABOVE THE ASTRONOMICAL NORM. THE TIDAL
ANOMALIES SHOULD NOT CHANGE MUCH THIS AFTN AS THE FLOW GRADUALLY
SHIFTS WEST OF SOUTH. THIS WILL KEEP TIDAL LEVELS BELOW THRESHOLDS
FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. BLOWOUT TIDES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...JRK/GMS
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...JRK/BJL
MARINE...JRK/BJL
FIRE WEATHER...BJL/JRK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JRK








000
FXUS61 KRNK 221417
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1017 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON ACCOMPANIED BY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD EASTWARD BY WEDNESDAY BRINGING A
DRY...WINDY AND COOLER DAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS
NOT UNTIL FRIDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT TUESDAY...

COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING WITH A
PRECEDING BAND OF SHOWERS ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA DENOTED
BY A SLIGHTLY ENHANCED BAND OF CLOUDS OFF VIS PICS. THIS PRE-
FRONTAL BAND LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN FOCUS OF ANY ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ESPCLY AS IT CROSSES THE BLUE
RIDGE AFTER MIDDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS BRIEF LOW LEVEL BACKING
FROM THE SRN BLUE RIDGE EAST ALONG WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND
A SLIGHTLY HIGHER AXIS OF 85H THETA-E SNEAKING INTO THE
FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT. HOWEVER CURRENT INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM THE
WEST LIKELY TO LIMIT CAPE AS WELL AS THE DEEP WESTERLY FLOW SEEN
OFF MORNING SOUNDINGS. LATEST HRRR AND THE LOCAL RNK-WRF REMAIN
MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING AT LEAST SOME SCTD SHRA/ISOLD TSRA
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE INTO NW NC AFTER 18Z/2PM AS A FAINT IMPULSE
NOW OVER ERN TN SHEARS EAST. THUS HOLDING ONTO LIKELY POPS FOR
NOW TO SEE HOW THINGS UNFOLD WITH BEST QPF OVER THE SW AND LEAST
OVER THE NORTH. OTRW TRIMMING POPS BACK A BIT SOONER FAR WEST
WHILE ADJUSTING TIMING CENTRAL/EAST. LEFT TEMPS CLOSE TO CURRENT
VALUES EXCEPT LOWERING SOME NW PER CURRENT CLDNS AND LIGHT
SHOWERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 355 AM EDT TUESDAY...

EARLY MORNING REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA BUT THESE ARE SO FAR DRYING UP
AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO DRIER AIR MASS ACROSS OUR REGION. THE COLD
FRONT REMAINS ON TRACK TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS BY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AND ALONG
IT. FORECAST SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO REMAIN MODEST
WITH SREF MEMBERS AND OTHER MODELS SHOWING MEAN MLCAPES GENERALLY
IN 400-600 J/KG RANGE...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR LESS THAN 30 KTS AT TIME
OF MAXIMUM HEATING AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES LESS THAN 7C. SPC DAY
1 OUTLOOK HAS THE REGION WELL WITHIN A SEE TEXT OR MARGINAL CHANCE
OF SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON NOTING THE WEAK FORCING EXPECTED. BEST
CHANCES FOR ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE IN FAR EAST IF
EARLY SOLAR HEATING IS ABLE TO BEAT THE INCOMING CLOUD COVER FOR A
FEW HOURS AND GENERATE SOME INSTABILITY. DRY AIR WHICH HAS BEEN
HOLDING TOUGH ALL NIGHT WILL BE FINALLY DISPLACED BY MODEST
NORTHWARD SURGE OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF FRONT WITH FORECAST PWATS
BRIEFLY REACHING 1 INCH IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER QPF ALSO
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED WITH RELATIVELY DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE
CONVECTION AND STEADY EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT. GENERALLY
EXPECTING TOTAL AMOUNTS FROM 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES. WINDS SHIFT INTO
WEST QUICKLY BEHIND FRONT AND SHARPLY COOLER AIR MOVES IN
OVERNIGHT WITH UPPER 30S IN THE FAR NW TO LOW 50S IN THE EAST BY
WED MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY
AND BE OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY WITH A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW BY THE
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO STREAM INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT AS THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT WITH PRESSURE RISES CONTINUING
ALONG WITH A 40-50KT CROSS-BARRIER JET OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING. BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE HIGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE
REGION...THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY THE EVENING...BECOMING CALM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL
BE AROUND 5F COOLER THAN NORMAL. WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DROP MOUNTAIN VALLEY TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 30S WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST
MAY DROP TO 40F WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH NO FROST EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
REBOUND QUICKLY TO NORMAL LEVELS THURSDAY WITH RANGES FROM THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE
50S AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...

DESPITE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT FRIDAY...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
WITH A DEEP SOUTHWEST/WEST FLOW...SHOULD CONTINUE THE TREND FOR
MODERATING TEMPS.

THE PATTERN FRIDAY APPEARS VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY`S...WITH A FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE WEST EARLY ON FRIDAY AND EXITING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE RACING NORTH TO INTERCEPT THE FRONT IN THE FAR
EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BE WHERE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAKE PLACE.

WHILE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION IS DELAYED UNTIL LATER SATURDAY...SO ANOTHER WARM DAY
IS ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

AFTER SATURDAY THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG RANGE
MODELS WITH THE GFS...CANADIAN AND GFS ENSEMBLES ALL KEEPING A SFC
FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WITH A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z/21
ECMWF KEEPS OUR AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THE GFS HAS SHOWN MORE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND THE LATEST GLOBAL
WIND OSCILLATION (GWO) PLOT FAVORS AN EASTERN U.S. TROF.
THEREFORE...NUDGED TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES AND KEPT AREA FREE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A QUICK LOOK AT THE 12Z ECMWF
SHOWS A TREND TOWARD THIS COOLER SOLUTION.

AS A SFC WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURNS...SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. CONFIDENCE ON
THE LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT AND CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 0700 AM EDT MONDAY...

AN AREA OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ALONG A COLD FRONT ACRS THE
OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE TERMINALS
LATER THIS MORNING AND MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
WITHIN PASSING SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCE OF
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE AT BLF/LWB WITH LIGHTER SOWERS EXPECTED
OUT TO THE BLUE RIDGE LATER IN THE MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ALONG THE LYH-DAN CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON.
COULD SEE BRIEF STRONG WINDS IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILING...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD AS CONDITIONS LIKELY TO BE CHANGEABLE.

THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN A
RETURN TO VFR WEATHER AND GUSTY NW WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME MVFR CIGS LINGERING
OVER THE FAR WESTERN UPSLOPE SITES IN SE WEST VA.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO AND OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD VFR LIKELY. ANOTHER FAST MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS MOVE EAST WITH
THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 945 AM EDT TUESDAY...

COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH MODEST RAINFALL
RANGING FROM LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES IN THE PIEDMONT UP TO AROUND
0.25 INCHES IN THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS NORTH CAROLINA
FOOTHILLS. STRONG NW WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY
WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG WITH ANOTHER QUICK DROP
IN HUMIDITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY LEAD TO ENHANCED FIRE
DANGER ESPECIALLY IF LESS WETTING RAINFALL IS REALIZED WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY
BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR PRESCRIBED BURNS WHERE GOOD DRYING
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST...AND WHERE TRANSPORT WINDS WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE DUE TO BETTER TRANSPORT AND CONSISTENCY OF DIRECTION
WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PC
NEAR TERM...JH/PC
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...PH
AVIATION...KK/PC
FIRE WEATHER...JH/KK




000
FXUS61 KRNK 221106
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
706 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MOUNTAINS TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD EASTWARD BY WEDNESDAY BRINGING A
DRY...WINDY AND COOLER DAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS
NOT UNTIL FRIDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 355 AM EDT TUESDAY...

EARLY MORNING REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA BUT THESE ARE SO FAR DRYING UP
AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO DRIER AIR MASS ACROSS OUR REGION. THE COLD
FRONT REMAINS ON TRACK TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS BY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AND ALONG
IT. FORECAST SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO REMAIN MODEST
WITH SREF MEMBERS AND OTHER MODELS SHOWING MEAN MLCAPES GENERALLY
IN 400-600 J/KG RANGE...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR LESS THAN 30 KTS AT TIME
OF MAXIMUM HEATING AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES LESS THAN 7C. SPC DAY
1 OUTLOOK HAS THE REGION WELL WITHIN A SEE TEXT OR MARGINAL CHANCE
OF SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON NOTING THE WEAK FORCING EXPECTED. BEST
CHANCES FOR ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE IN FAR EAST IF
EARLY SOLAR HEATING IS ABLE TO BEAT THE INCOMING CLOUD COVER FOR A
FEW HOURS AND GENERATE SOME INSTABILITY. DRY AIR WHICH HAS BEEN
HOLDING TOUGH ALL NIGHT WILL BE FINALLY DISPLACED BY MODEST
NORTHWARD SURGE OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF FRONT WITH FORECAST PWATS
BRIEFLY REACHING 1 INCH IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER QPF ALSO
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED WITH RELATIVELY DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE
CONVECTION AND STEADY EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT. GENERALLY
EXPECTING TOTAL AMOUNTS FROM 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES. WINDS SHIFT INTO
WEST QUICKLY BEHIND FRONT AND SHARPLY COOLER AIR MOVES IN
OVERNIGHT WITH UPPER 30S IN THE FAR NW TO LOW 50S IN THE EAST BY
WED MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY
AND BE OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY WITH A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW BY THE
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO STREAM INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT AS THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT WITH PRESSURE RISES CONTINUING
ALONG WITH A 40-50KT CROSS-BARRIER JET OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING. BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE HIGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE
REGION...THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY THE EVENING...BECOMING CALM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL
BE AROUND 5F COOLER THAN NORMAL. WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DROP MOUNTAIN VALLEY TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 30S WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST
MAY DROP TO 40F WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH NO FROST EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
REBOUND QUICKLY TO NORMAL LEVELS THURSDAY WITH RANGES FROM THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE
50S AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...

DESPITE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT FRIDAY...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
WITH A DEEP SOUTHWEST/WEST FLOW...SHOULD CONTINUE THE TREND FOR
MODERATING TEMPS.

THE PATTERN FRIDAY APPEARS VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY`S...WITH A FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE WEST EARLY ON FRIDAY AND EXITING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE RACING NORTH TO INTERCEPT THE FRONT IN THE FAR
EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BE WHERE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAKE PLACE.

WHILE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION IS DELAYED UNTIL LATER SATURDAY...SO ANOTHER WARM DAY
IS ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

AFTER SATURDAY THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG RANGE
MODELS WITH THE GFS...CANADIAN AND GFS ENSEMBLES ALL KEEPING A SFC
FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WITH A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z/21
ECMWF KEEPS OUR AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THE GFS HAS SHOWN MORE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND THE LATEST GLOBAL
WIND OSCILLATION (GWO) PLOT FAVORS AN EASTERN U.S. TROF.
THEREFORE...NUDGED TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES AND KEPT AREA FREE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A QUICK LOOK AT THE 12Z ECMWF
SHOWS A TREND TOWARD THIS COOLER SOLUTION.

AS A SFC WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURNS...SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. CONFIDENCE ON
THE LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT AND CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 0700 AM EDT MONDAY...

AN AREA OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ALONG A COLD FRONT ACRS THE
OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE TERMINALS
LATER THIS MORNING AND MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
WITHIN PASSING SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCE OF
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE AT BLF/LWB WITH LIGHTER SOWERS EXPECTED
OUT TO THE BLUE RIDGE LATER IN THE MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ALONG THE LYH-DAN CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON.
COULD SEE BRIEF STRONG WINDS IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILING...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD AS CONDITIONS LIKELY TO BE CHANGEABLE.

THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN A
RETURN TO VFR WEATHER AND GUSTY NW WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME MVFR CIGS LINGERING
OVER THE FAR WESTERN UPSLOPE SITES IN SE WEST VA.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO AND OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD VFR LIKELY. ANOTHER FAST MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS MOVE EAST WITH
THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 0415 AM EDT TUESDAY...

COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY MODEST RAINFALL RANGING
FROM LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES IN THE PIEDMONT UP TO AROUND 0.25
INCHES IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. STRONG NW WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
ANOTHER QUICK DROP IN HUMIDITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY LEAD
TO ENHANCED FIRE DANGER ESPECIALLY IF LESS WETTING RAINFALL IS
REALIZED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY.

THE NEXT BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR PRESCRIBED BURNS WHERE GOOD DRYING
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST...AND WHERE TRANSPORT WINDS WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE DUE TO BETTER TRANSPORT AND CONSISTENCY OF DIRECTION
WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PC
NEAR TERM...PC
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...PH
AVIATION...KK/PC
FIRE WEATHER...KK




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221057
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
657 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING...AND WILL
CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ORIENTED FROM
SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO INTO THE MID-SOUTH THIS MORNING, WITH THE
ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VLY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EAST TODAY, PUSHING THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTN/TNGT. DEEP LAYER W TO W-SW
FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION...WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE
BEING SUPPLIED BY THE SYSTEM. EXPECT A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
MORNING TO START...AND CWA SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH LITTLE MORE THAN
SOME INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS THROUGH MIDDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY GENERALLY WELL INTO THE 70S, WITH LOWER 80S
EXPECTED WEST OF THE BAY.

EXPECT SHRAS/ISO THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG PRE-FRONTAL LEE
TROUGH BY AROUND/JUST AFTER 18Z...DROPPING SE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH LATE AFTN. WL LKLY SEE SOME ADDITIONAL SCT SHRAS AS THE
COLD FRONT ADVANCES INTO THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THIS EVENING, SO
RETAINED A LOW POP OVER THE PIEDMONT THROUGH ABOUT 10PM. HI- RES
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A NARROW AND UNORGANIZED BAND OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE AREA WITH
THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN
DOWNSLOPE FLOW ALOFT AND WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN TO THE
NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THETA-E ADVECTION AND TEMPS WARMING INTO
THE UPPER 70S WILL RESULT IN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER
THE REGION. HOWEVER, COOL TD VALUES, MEAGER MLCAPE VALUES (PROGGED
TO BE LESS THAN 500 J/KG) AND RATHER SHALLOW MID-LVL LAPSE RATES
ALL SEEM TO POINT TOWARDS ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. FURTHER,
MARGINAL SHEAR (0-6KM BULK SHEAR 25-30 KT) SHOULD PREVENT OVERALL
STORM ORGANIZATION. THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY DEVELOPING STORMS
WILL BE LOCALLY SUB-SEVERE WIND GUSTS DUE TO THE DRY SUB-CLOUD
LYR, AND WILL REFLECT THIS IN TODAY`S HWO. LIKELY POPS ARE IN
PLACE MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64, WITH A CHC (40-50%) POP
FARTHER SOUTH. DID RETAIN ISOLATED THUNDER WORDING ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA. QPF AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF
AN INCH.

TONIGHT...
SHOWERS/ISO THUNDERSTORMS PUSH OFFSHORE THIS EVENING W/ A QUICKLY
CLEARING SKY THROUGH MIDNIGHT, AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS
FROM FALLING AS QUICKLY AS PROGGED BY COOLER MAV GUIDANCE...SO
HAVE OPTED TOWARDS WARMER ENVELOPE OF MOS GUIDANCE ACROSS THE
BOARD. EARLY MORNING LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND AND
OVER THE EASTERN SHORE...TO LOW 50S SE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODIFYING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW ON WED, AS NW
FLOW PERSISTS. REMNANT MID LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH (LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE) WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON
CU OVER THE LOCAL AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEASTERN COASTAL ZONES.
LOCAL THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATE HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S
OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER, WITH DEWPOINTS WILL MIX INTO THE UPR
20S/LOW 30S (YIELDING MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE MID 20S INLAND) AND
WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT, BUMPED TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S INLAND, WITH LOWER 60S OVER THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE. CONCERN
DOES EXIST FOR FIRE WX CONDITIONS WED...SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW
FOR DETAILS. EARLY MORNING LOWS THU MORNING IN THE U30S TO AROUND
40...UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY.

DRY AGAIN ON THU AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE REGION, BEFORE
SLIDING OFF OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE THU/ERY FRIDAY. HIGHS THURS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S. ONCE AGAIN, MIN RH VALUES FALL INTO THE
20S THU AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRANSITION TO A MORE
AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY PATTERN BY DAYS 6-7. SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE
THURS NIGHT...VEERING THE FLOW AROUND TO THE SOUTH AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVERHEAD. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT...BUT CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE NRN PLAINS
THURS NIGHT. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
LIFTING A WARM FRONT OVER THE REGION IN THE AMPLIFYING FLOW FRI
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION SAT. WLY
FLOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE GULF STATES WILL LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE APPALACHIANS. DEWPOINTS ONLY PROGGED TO WARM INTO THE LOW-MID
50S FRI. BEST DYNAMICS WILL ALSO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AS
ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...INCREASING
SPEEDS ALOFT AND SMALL AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES WILL BE ENOUGH TO
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS ALONG THE FRONT ATTM.
WITH THE LOCAL AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR FRI...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO
THE MID-UPPER 70S (NEAR 80 INLAND). WARM TEMPS COMBINED WITH LOW
LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL MAINTAIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON. THUS WILL CARRY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER. SRN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL OVER
THE CAROLINAS FRI NIGHT-SAT IN WLY FLOW ALOFT.

SHOULD REMAIN WARM SAT AS LOW LEVEL WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
PERSISTS...THUS DELAYING COOLER AIRMASS UNTIL SAT NIGHT. HAVE GONE
ON WARM EDGE OF GUIDANCE IN THIS PATTERN WITH HIGHS AGAIN MAINLY
75-80 F. LOOKS DRY AS WELL WITH DYNAMICS WELL TO THE NORTH
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED LATE DAY SHOWER COULD BRUSH NORTHERN ZONES.
MORE SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT ARISES SUN/MON AS THE GFS IS
MUCH COOLER BUT DRY AS A DEEP UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NE
STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND...WHILE THE ECMWF IS LESS AMPLIFIED AND
EVEN DEPICTS A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHING BACK INTO
REGION BY MON. RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SOLUTION AT THIS
TIME SO HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO WPC AND GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS.
WENT DRY SUN...THEN BRING SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHC
POP BY MON AREA-WIDE. HIGH GENLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LOWS
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 22/0540Z...LIGHT WINDS ARE GRADUALLY TURNING FROM EAST TO
SOUTH AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE OFFSHORE. MEANWHILE...
A SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BKN
CIGS AROUND 25 KFT AGL HAVE BEGUN TO OVERSPREAD THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO INTO TUE MORNING. THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA DURING TUE
AFTN/EVENING. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...POTENTIALLY
RESULTING IN BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO VIS/CIGS UNDER STRONGER STORM
CORES. THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME MORE SW-W
TODAY...WHICH WILL THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT WITH GUSTS OF
15-20 KT DURING THE AFTN. THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 KT WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS QUICKLY TURN TO THE
NW AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG THE
CHES BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS DUE TO POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR
ADVECTION. COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION ON WED...MAKING FOR A BREEZY DAY. AREAS WELL INLAND SHOULD
EXPERIENCE NW WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KT. AREAS CLOSER
TO THE CHES BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS (INCLUDING THE MD/VA EASTERN
SHORE) SHOULD EXPERIENCE NW WINDS OF 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS OF
25-30 KT. DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR
THROUGHOUT WED EVENING...BECOMING CALM INLAND BY 24/0400Z WHILE
SPEEDS STAY AROUND 10-15 KT NEAR THE COAST.

HIGH PRESSURE/DRY WX CONTINUES THU WITH NW WINDS TURNING TO THE W
DURING THE DAY. SPEEDS WILL STAY SOMEWHAT BREEZY NEAR THE COAST
AS A TIGHTENED SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE ARE ON FRI AND THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH PROBABILITIES LOOK RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS AROUND 5 KT ARE GRADUALLY TURNING FROM EAST TO SOUTH
AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE OFFSHORE. MEANWHILE...A SFC
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING AND THEN
CROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTN/EVENING. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE
WATERS THIS AFTN...WINDS WILL BECOME SW AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KT.
A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER CHES BAY/CURRITUCK
SOUND DURING THIS TIME...BUT AM STILL ANTICIPATING PREDOMINANT
CONDITIONS TO BE SUB-SCA. MEANWHILE FOR TODAY...ONSHORE SWELL WITH
10-11 SECOND PERIODS WILL PREVENT SEAS FROM SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FT
FOR THE GREATER PART OF TODAY...ESPECIALLY OUT NEAR 20 NM.
THEREFORE SCA FLAGS FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH TODAY. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS OF 25-35 KT. THE FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS
THIS EVENING AND PUSHES OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. A PERIOD
OF STRONG POST-FRONTAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED DUE TO A
DECENT CAA SURGE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A FAVORABLE NW WIND
DIRECTION WILL FURTHER ENHANCE WIND SPEEDS...BUT WILL GENERALLY
PREVENT SEAS FROM BUILDING ANY HIGHER THAN 5-6 FT...WITH 3-4 FT
WAVES ON THE BAY (LOCALLY UP TO 5 FT SRN BAY LATE TONIGHT) AND
2-3 FT ON THE RIVERS. WILL SEE A SECONDARY...ALBEIT WEAKER...
COLD AIR SURGE WED NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY GRADUALLY IMPROVING MARINE
CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY THU (ALTHOUGH TRENDS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER
TO BUILD A SFC RIDGE INTO THE REGION SO IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
BREEZY IN NW FLOW THROUGH THU AFTN FOR NRN COASTAL WATERS IN
PARTICULAR). HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST BY
LATE THU AFTN INTO FRI.

SCA FLAGS FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS WERE EXTENDED THROUGH WED NIGHT
FOR A COMBINATION OF WINDS AND SEAS. ADDITIONAL FLAGS WERE HOISTED
FOR THE BAY/SOUND/RIVERS BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND
PERSISTING INTO EARLY WED EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STRONG NW
SURGE TONIGHT AND CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS ON WED BEFORE WINDS
DIMINISH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT, BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY OF A WIDESPREAD WETTING
RAIN IS NOT ALL THAT GOOD. DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MIN RH VALUES DROPPING TO BETWEEN 25-30% FOR
MOST LOCATIONS...AND 20FT WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 15-20 MPH WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30 MPH. THESE CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH
THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN FOR ALMOST A WEEK MAY ENHANCE THE
THREAT FOR WILDFIRES ON WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE
ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT WHERE MIN RH VALUES WILL BE THE
LOWEST...AND WHERE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF RAIN HAS FALLEN RECENTLY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM/SAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD
FIRE WEATHER...AKQ








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220836
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
436 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING...AND WILL
CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ORIENTED FROM
SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO INTO THE MID-SOUTH THIS MORNING, WITH THE
ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VLY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST TODAY, PUSHING THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTN/TNGT. DEEP LAYER W TO W-SW FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO THE REGION...WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE BEING
SUPPLIED BY THE SYSTEM. EXPECT A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY MORNING TO
START...AND CWA SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH MIDDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
GENERALLY WELL INTO THE 70S, WITH LOWER 80S EXPECTED WEST OF THE
BAY.

EXPECT SOME SHRAS TO DEVELOP ALONG PRE-FRONTAL LEE TROUGH BY
AROUND/JUST AFTER 18Z, WITH ADDITIONAL SCT SHRAS AS THE COLD FRONT
ADVANCES INTO THE LOCAL AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A NARROW AND
UNORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CROSSING THE AREA WITH THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN DOWNSLOPE FLOW ALOFT AND WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS
WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THETA-E ADVECTION AND
TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S WILL RESULT IN A MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER, COOL TD VALUES, MEAGER
MLCAPE VALUES (PROGGED TO BE LESS THAN 500 J/KG) AND RATHER
SHALLOW MID-LVL LAPSE RATES ALL SEEM TO POINT TOWARDS ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. FURTHER, MARGINAL SHEAR (0-6KM BULK SHEAR
25-30 KT) SHOULD PREVENT OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION. THE MAIN
THREAT FROM ANY DEVELOPING STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY SUB-SEVERE WIND
GUSTS DUE TO THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LYR, AND WILL REFLECT THIS IN
TODAY`S HWO. LIKELY POPS ARE IN PLACE MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-64, WITH A CHC (40-50%) POP FARTHER SOUTH. DID RETAIN ISOLATED
THUNDER WORDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. QPF AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH.

TONIGHT...
SHOWERS/ISO THUNDERSTORMS PUSH OFFSHORE THIS EVENING W/ A QUICKLY
CLEARING SKY THROUGH MIDNIGHT, AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS
FROM FALLING AS QUICKLY AS PROGGED BY COOLER MAV GUIDANCE...SO
HAVE OPTED TOWARDS WARMER ENVELOPE OF MOS GUIDANCE ACROSS THE
BOARD. EARLY MORNING LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND AND
OVER THE EASTERN SHORE...TO LOW 50S SE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODIFYING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW ON WED, AS NW
FLOW PERSISTS. REMNANT MID LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH (LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE) WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON
CU OVER THE LOCAL AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEASTERN COASTAL ZONES.
LOCAL THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATE HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S
OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER, WITH DEWPOINTS WILL MIX INTO THE UPR
20S/LOW 30S (YIELDING MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE MID 20S INLAND) AND
WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT, BUMPED TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S INLAND, WITH LOWER 60S OVER THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE. CONCERN
DOES EXIST FOR FIRE WX CONDITIONS WED...SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW
FOR DETAILS. EARLY MORNING LOWS THU MORNING IN THE U30S TO AROUND
40...UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY.

DRY AGAIN ON THU AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE REGION, BEFORE
SLIDING OFF OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE THU/ERY FRIDAY. HIGHS THURS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S. ONCE AGAIN, MIN RH VALUES FALL INTO THE
20S THU AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRANSITION TO A MORE
AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY PATTERN BY DAYS 6-7. SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE
THURS NIGHT...VEERING THE FLOW AROUND TO THE SOUTH AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVERHEAD. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT...BUT CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE NRN PLAINS
THURS NIGHT. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
LIFTING A WARM FRONT OVER THE REGION IN THE AMPLIFYING FLOW FRI
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION SAT. WLY
FLOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE GULF STATES WILL LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE APPALACHIANS. DEWPOINTS ONLY PROGGED TO WARM INTO THE LOW-MID
50S FRI. BEST DYNAMICS WILL ALSO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AS
ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...INCREASING
SPEEDS ALOFT AND SMALL AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES WILL BE ENOUGH TO
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS ALONG THE FRONT ATTM.
WITH THE LOCAL AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR FRI...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO
THE MID-UPPER 70S (NEAR 80 INLAND). WARM TEMPS COMBINED WITH LOW
LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL MAINTAIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON. THUS WILL CARRY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER. SRN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL OVER
THE CAROLINAS FRI NIGHT-SAT IN WLY FLOW ALOFT.

SHOULD REMAIN WARM SAT AS LOW LEVEL WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
PERSISTS...THUS DELAYING COOLER AIRMASS UNTIL SAT NIGHT. HAVE GONE
ON WARM EDGE OF GUIDANCE IN THIS PATTERN WITH HIGHS AGAIN MAINLY
75-80 F. LOOKS DRY AS WELL WITH DYNAMICS WELL TO THE NORTH
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED LATE DAY SHOWER COULD BRUSH NORTHERN ZONES.
MORE SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT ARISES SUN/MON AS THE GFS IS
MUCH COOLER BUT DRY AS A DEEP UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NE
STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND...WHILE THE ECMWF IS LESS AMPLIFIED AND
EVEN DEPICTS A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHING BACK INTO
REGION BY MON. RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SOLUTION AT THIS
TIME SO HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO WPC AND GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS.
WENT DRY SUN...THEN BRING SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHC
POP BY MON AREA-WIDE. HIGH GENLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LOWS
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 22/0540Z...LIGHT WINDS ARE GRADUALLY TURNING FROM EAST TO
SOUTH AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE OFFSHORE. MEANWHILE...
A SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BKN
CIGS AROUND 25 KFT AGL HAVE BEGUN TO OVERSPREAD THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO INTO TUE MORNING. THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA DURING TUE
AFTN/EVENING. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...POTENTIALLY
RESULTING IN BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO VIS/CIGS UNDER STRONGER STORM
CORES. THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME MORE SW-W
TODAY...WHICH WILL THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT WITH GUSTS OF
15-20 KT DURING THE AFTN. THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 KT WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS QUICKLY TURN TO THE
NW AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG THE
CHES BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS DUE TO POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR
ADVECTION. COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION ON WED...MAKING FOR A BREEZY DAY. AREAS WELL INLAND SHOULD
EXPERIENCE NW WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KT. AREAS CLOSER
TO THE CHES BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS (INCLUDING THE MD/VA EASTERN
SHORE) SHOULD EXPERIENCE NW WINDS OF 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS OF
25-30 KT. DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR
THROUGHOUT WED EVENING...BECOMING CALM INLAND BY 24/0400Z WHILE
SPEEDS STAY AROUND 10-15 KT NEAR THE COAST.

HIGH PRESSURE/DRY WX CONTINUES THU WITH NW WINDS TURNING TO THE W
DURING THE DAY. SPEEDS WILL STAY SOMEWHAT BREEZY NEAR THE COAST
AS A TIGHTENED SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE ARE ON FRI AND THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH PROBABILITIES LOOK RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS AROUND 5 KT ARE GRADUALLY TURNING FROM EAST TO SOUTH
AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE OFFSHORE. MEANWHILE...A SFC
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING AND THEN
CROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTN/EVENING. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE
WATERS THIS AFTN...WINDS WILL BECOME SW AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KT.
A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER CHES BAY/CURRITUCK
SOUND DURING THIS TIME...BUT AM STILL ANTICIPATING PREDOMINANT
CONDITIONS TO BE SUB-SCA. MEANWHILE FOR TODAY...ONSHORE SWELL WITH
10-11 SECOND PERIODS WILL PREVENT SEAS FROM SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FT
FOR THE GREATER PART OF TODAY...ESPECIALLY OUT NEAR 20 NM.
THEREFORE SCA FLAGS FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH TODAY. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS OF 25-35 KT. THE FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS
THIS EVENING AND PUSHES OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. A PERIOD
OF STRONG POST-FRONTAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED DUE TO A
DECENT CAA SURGE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A FAVORABLE NW WIND
DIRECTION WILL FURTHER ENHANCE WIND SPEEDS...BUT WILL GENERALLY
PREVENT SEAS FROM BUILDING ANY HIGHER THAN 5-6 FT...WITH 3-4 FT
WAVES ON THE BAY (LOCALLY UP TO 5 FT SRN BAY LATE TONIGHT) AND
2-3 FT ON THE RIVERS. WILL SEE A SECONDARY...ALBEIT WEAKER...
COLD AIR SURGE WED NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY GRADUALLY IMPROVING MARINE
CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY THU (ALTHOUGH TRENDS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER
TO BUILD A SFC RIDGE INTO THE REGION SO IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
BREEZY IN NW FLOW THROUGH THU AFTN FOR NRN COASTAL WATERS IN
PARTICULAR). HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST BY
LATE THU AFTN INTO FRI.

SCA FLAGS FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS WERE EXTENDED THROUGH WED NIGHT
FOR A COMBINATION OF WINDS AND SEAS. ADDITIONAL FLAGS WERE HOISTED
FOR THE BAY/SOUND/RIVERS BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND
PERSISTING INTO EARLY WED EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STRONG NW
SURGE TONIGHT AND CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS ON WED BEFORE WINDS
DIMINISH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT, BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY OF A WIDESPREAD WETTING
RAIN IS NOT ALL THAT GOOD. DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MIN RH VALUES DROPPING TO BETWEEN 25-30% FOR
MOST LOCATIONS...AND 20FT WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 15-20 MPH WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30 MPH. THESE CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH
THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN FOR ALMOST A WEEK MAY ENHANCE THE
THREAT FOR WILDFIRES ON WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE
ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT WHERE MIN RH VALUES WILL BE THE
LOWEST...AND WHERE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF RAIN HAS FALLEN RECENTLY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM/SAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD
FIRE WEATHER...AKQ









000
FXUS61 KRNK 220818
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
418 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MOUNTAINS TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING BLUSTERY AND COOLER
WEATHER WITH DRY WEATHER FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 355 AM EDT TUESDAY...

EARLY MORNING REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA BUT THESE ARE SO FAR DRYING UP
AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO DRIER AIR MASS ACROSS OUR REGION. THE COLD
FRONT REMAINS ON TRACK TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS BY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AND ALONG
IT. FORECAST SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO REMAIN MODEST
WITH SREF MEMBERS AND OTHER MODELS SHOWING MEAN MLCAPES GENERALLY
IN 400-600 J/KG RANGE...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR LESS THAN 30 KTS AT TIME
OF MAXIMUM HEATING AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES LESS THAN 7C. SPC DAY
1 OUTLOOK HAS THE REGION WELL WITHIN A SEE TEXT OR MARGINAL CHANCE
OF SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON NOTING THE WEAK FORCING EXPECTED. BEST
CHANCES FOR ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE IN FAR EAST IF
EARLY SOLAR HEATING IS ABLE TO BEAT THE INCOMING CLOUD COVER FOR A
FEW HOURS AND GENERATE SOME INSTABILITY. DRY AIR WHICH HAS BEEN
HOLDING TOUGH ALL NIGHT WILL BE FINALLY DISPLACED BY MODEST
NORTHWARD SURGE OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF FRONT WITH FORECAST PWATS
BRIEFLY REACHING 1 INCH IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER QPF ALSO
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED WITH RELATIVELY DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE
CONVECTION AND STEADY EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT. GENERALLY
EXPECTING TOTAL AMOUNTS FROM 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES. WINDS SHIFT INTO
WEST QUICKLY BEHIND FRONT AND SHARPLY COOLER AIR MOVES IN
OVERNIGHT WITH UPPER 30S IN THE FAR NW TO LOW 50S IN THE EAST BY
WED MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY
AND BE OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY WITH A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW BY THE
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO STREAM INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT AS THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT WITH PRESSURE RISES CONTINUING
ALONG WITH A 40-50KT CROSS-BARRIER JET OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING. BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE HIGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE
REGION...THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY THE EVENING...BECOMING CALM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL
BE AROUND 5F COOLER THAN NORMAL. WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DROP MOUNTAIN VALLEY TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 30S WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST
MAY DROP TO 40F WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH NO FROST EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
REBOUND QUICKLY TO NORMAL LEVELS THURSDAY WITH RANGES FROM THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE
50S AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...

DESPITE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT FRIDAY...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
WITH A DEEP SOUTHWEST/WEST FLOW...SHOULD CONTINUE THE TREND FOR
MODERATING TEMPS.

THE PATTERN FRIDAY APPEARS VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY`S...WITH A FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE WEST EARLY ON FRIDAY AND EXITING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE RACING NORTH TO INTERCEPT THE FRONT IN THE FAR
EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BE WHERE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAKE PLACE.

WHILE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION IS DELAYED UNTIL LATER SATURDAY...SO ANOTHER WARM DAY
IS ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

AFTER SATURDAY THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG RANGE
MODELS WITH THE GFS...CANADIAN AND GFS ENSEMBLES ALL KEEPING A SFC
FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WITH A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z/21
ECMWF KEEPS OUR AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THE GFS HAS SHOWN MORE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND THE LATEST GLOBAL
WIND OSCILLATION (GWO) PLOT FAVORS AN EASTERN U.S. TROF.
THEREFORE...NUDGED TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES AND KEPT AREA FREE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A QUICK LOOK AT THE 12Z ECMWF
SHOWS A TREND TOWARD THIS COOLER SOLUTION.

AS A SFC WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURNS...SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. CONFIDENCE ON
THE LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT AND CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM EDT MONDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
SHIFT EAST WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATER THIS MORNING.
LOCALIZED MVFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WITH PASSING SHOWERS
WITH BEST CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBYS AT BLF/LWB WITH ONLY
LIGHTER SHOWERS OUT TO THE BLUE RIDGE LATER IN THE MORNING. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ALONG THE LYH-DAN CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILING...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD AS CONDITIONS LIKELY TO BE CHANGEABLE.

THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN A
RETURN TO VFR WEATHER AND GUSTY NW WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME MVFR CIGS LINGERING
OVER THE FAR WESTERN UPSLOPE SITES IN SE WEST VA.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO AND OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD VFR LIKELY. ANOTHER FAST MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS MOVE EAST WITH
THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 0415 AM EDT TUESDAY...

COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY MODEST RAINFALL RANGING
FROM LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES IN THE PIEDMONT UP TO AROUND 0.25
INCHES IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. STRONG NW WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
ANOTHER QUICK DROP IN HUMIDITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY LEAD
TO ENHANCED FIRE DANGER ESPECIALLY IF LESS WETTING RAINFALL IS
REALIZED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY.

THE NEXT BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR PRESCRIBED BURNS WHERE GOOD DRYING
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST...AND WHERE TRANSPORT WINDS WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE DUE TO BETTER TRANSPORT AND CONSISTENCY OF DIRECTION
WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PC
NEAR TERM...PC
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...PH
AVIATION...KK/PC
FIRE WEATHER...KK




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220814
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
414 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING...AND WILL
CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ORIENTED FROM
SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO INTO THE MID-SOUTH THIS MORNING, WITH THE
ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VLY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST TODAY, PUSHING THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTN/TNGT. DEEP LAYER W TO W-SW FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO THE REGION...WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE BEING
SUPPLIED BY THE SYSTEM. EXPECT A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY MORNING TO
START...AND CWA SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH MIDDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
GENERALLY WELL INTO THE 70S, WITH LOWER 80S EXPECTED WEST OF THE
BAY.

EXPECT SOME SHRAS TO DEVELOP ALONG PRE-FRONTAL LEE TROUGH BY
AROUND/JUST AFTER 18Z, WITH ADDITIONAL SCT SHRAS AS THE COLD FRONT
ADVANCES INTO THE LOCAL AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A NARROW AND
UNORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CROSSING THE AREA WITH THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN DOWNSLOPE FLOW ALOFT AND WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS
WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THETA-E ADVECTION AND
TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S WILL RESULT IN A MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER, COOL TD VALUES, MEAGER
MLCAPE VALUES (PROGGED TO BE LESS THAN 500 J/KG) AND RATHER
SHALLOW MID-LVL LAPSE RATES ALL SEEM TO POINT TOWARDS ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. FURTHER, MARGINAL SHEAR (0-6KM BULK SHEAR
25-30 KT) SHOULD PREVENT OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION. THE MAIN
THREAT FROM ANY DEVELOPING STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY SUB-SEVERE WIND
GUSTS DUE TO THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LYR, AND WILL REFLECT THIS IN
TODAY`S HWO. LIKELY POPS ARE IN PLACE MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-64, WITH A CHC (40-50%) POP FARTHER SOUTH. DID RETAIN ISOLATED
THUNDER WORDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. QPF AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH.

TONIGHT...
SHOWERS/ISO THUNDERSTORMS PUSH OFFSHORE THIS EVENING W/ A QUICKLY
CLEARING SKY THROUGH MIDNIGHT, AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS
FROM FALLING AS QUICKLY AS PROGGED BY COOLER MAV GUIDANCE...SO
HAVE OPTED TOWARDS WARMER ENVELOPE OF MOS GUIDANCE ACROSS THE
BOARD. EARLY MORNING LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND AND
OVER THE EASTERN SHORE...TO LOW 50S SE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODIFYING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW ON WED, AS NW
FLOW PERSISTS. REMNANT MID LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH (LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE) WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON
CU OVER THE LOCAL AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEASTERN COASTAL ZONES.
LOCAL THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATE HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S
OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER, WITH DEWPOINTS WILL MIX INTO THE UPR
20S/LOW 30S (YIELDING MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE MID 20S INLAND) AND
WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT, BUMPED TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S INLAND, WITH LOWER 60S OVER THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE. CONCERN
DOES EXIST FOR FIRE WX CONDITIONS WED...SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW
FOR DETAILS. EARLY MORNING LOWS THU MORNING IN THE U30S TO AROUND
40...UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY.

DRY AGAIN ON THU AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE REGION, BEFORE
SLIDING OFF OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE THU/ERY FRIDAY. HIGHS THURS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S. ONCE AGAIN, MIN RH VALUES FALL INTO THE
20S THU AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRANSITION TO A MORE
AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY PATTERN BY DAYS 6-7. SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE
THURS NIGHT...VEERING THE FLOW AROUND TO THE SOUTH AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVERHEAD. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT...BUT CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE NRN PLAINS
THURS NIGHT. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
LIFTING A WARM FRONT OVER THE REGION IN THE AMPLIFYING FLOW FRI
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION SAT. WLY
FLOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE GULF STATES WILL LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE APPALACHIANS. DEWPOINTS ONLY PROGGED TO WARM INTO THE LOW-MID
50S FRI. BEST DYNAMICS WILL ALSO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AS
ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...INCREASING
SPEEDS ALOFT AND SMALL AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES WILL BE ENOUGH TO
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS ALONG THE FRONT ATTM.
WITH THE LOCAL AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR FRI...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO
THE MID-UPPER 70S (NEAR 80 INLAND). WARM TEMPS COMBINED WITH LOW
LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL MAINTAIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON. THUS WILL CARRY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER. SRN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL OVER
THE CAROLINAS FRI NIGHT-SAT IN WLY FLOW ALOFT.

SHOULD REMAIN WARM SAT AS LOW LEVEL WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
PERSISTS...THUS DELAYING COOLER AIRMASS UNTIL SAT NIGHT. HAVE GONE
ON WARM EDGE OF GUIDANCE IN THIS PATTERN WITH HIGHS AGAIN MAINLY
75-80 F. LOOKS DRY AS WELL WITH DYNAMICS WELL TO THE NORTH
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED LATE DAY SHOWER COULD BRUSH NORTHERN ZONES.
MORE SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT ARISES SUN/MON AS THE GFS IS
MUCH COOLER BUT DRY AS A DEEP UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NE
STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND...WHILE THE ECMWF IS LESS AMPLIFIED AND
EVEN DEPICTS A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHING BACK INTO
REGION BY MON. RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SOLUTION AT THIS
TIME SO HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO WPC AND GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS.
WENT DRY SUN...THEN BRING SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHC
POP BY MON AREA-WIDE. HIGH GENLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LOWS
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 22/0540Z...LIGHT WINDS ARE GRADUALLY TURNING FROM EAST TO
SOUTH AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE OFFSHORE. MEANWHILE...
A SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BKN
CIGS AROUND 25 KFT AGL HAVE BEGUN TO OVERSPREAD THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO INTO TUE MORNING. THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA DURING TUE
AFTN/EVENING. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...POTENTIALLY
RESULTING IN BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO VIS/CIGS UNDER STRONGER STORM
CORES. THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME MORE SW-W
TODAY...WHICH WILL THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT WITH GUSTS OF
15-20 KT DURING THE AFTN. THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 KT WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS QUICKLY TURN TO THE
NW AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG THE
CHES BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS DUE TO POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR
ADVECTION. COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION ON WED...MAKING FOR A BREEZY DAY. AREAS WELL INLAND SHOULD
EXPERIENCE NW WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KT. AREAS CLOSER
TO THE CHES BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS (INCLUDING THE MD/VA EASTERN
SHORE) SHOULD EXPERIENCE NW WINDS OF 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS OF
25-30 KT. DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR
THROUGHOUT WED EVENING...BECOMING CALM INLAND BY 24/0400Z WHILE
SPEEDS STAY AROUND 10-15 KT NEAR THE COAST.

HIGH PRESSURE/DRY WX CONTINUES THU WITH NW WINDS TURNING TO THE W
DURING THE DAY. SPEEDS WILL STAY SOMEWHAT BREEZY NEAR THE COAST
AS A TIGHTENED SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE ARE ON FRI AND THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH PROBABILITIES LOOK RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT CONTINUED NE WINDS OVER THE WATERS BUT SPEEDS
ARE RAPIDLY DIMINISHING. WITH 10-11 SEC PERIOD SWELL HOWEVER..SEAS
HAVE BEEN SLOW TO SUBSIDE ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE MOUTH OF THE
BAY. HAVE EXTENDED SCA THROUGH 7 PM FOR MOUTH OF THE BAY FOR 3-4
FT WAVES. ALSO STILL NOTING SEAS OF 6-8 FT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AT 20Z...THUS SCA REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT (MAY NEED TO EXTEND THROUGH LATE MORNING
TUE ACRS SOUTHERN WATERS).

FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. COULD HAVE A FEW GUSTS TO LOW
END SCA OVER THE BAY/SND IN S-SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY
AFTN BUT EXPECT PREDOMINANT CONDITIONS TO BE SUB-SCA. THE FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH A PERIOD OF STRONG SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH RESULTANT N-NWLY CAA SURGE LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP SIGNIFICANTLY.
OFFSHORE NW FLOW PATTERN WILL GENLY KEEP SEAS FROM BUILDING TO RE
THAN 5-6 FT..WITH 3-4 FT WAVES ON THE BAY AND 2-3 FT ON THE
RIVERS. WILL SEE A SECONDARY SURGE WED NGT...FOLLOWED BY GRADUALLY
IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY THU (ALTHOUGH TRENDS
ARE A LITTLE SLOWER TO BUILD A SFC RIDGE INTO THE REGION SO IT
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY BREEZY IN NW FLOW THROUGH THU AFTN FOR NRN
COASTAL WATERS IN PARTICULAR). HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
FROM THE WEST BY LATE THU AFTN INTO FRI.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT, BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY OF A WIDESPREAD WETTING
RAIN IS NOT ALL THAT GOOD. DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MIN RH VALUES DROPPING TO BETWEEN 25-30% FOR
MOST LOCATIONS...AND 20FT WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 15-20 MPH WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30 MPH. THESE CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH
THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN FOR ALMOST A WEEK MAY ENHANCE THE
THREAT FOR WILDFIRES ON WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE
ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT WHERE MIN RH VALUES WILL BE THE
LOWEST...AND WHERE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF RAIN HAS FALLEN RECENTLY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM/SAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...LKB
FIRE WEATHER...








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220808
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
408 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING...AND WILL
CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ORIENTED FROM
SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO INTO THE MID-SOUTH THIS MORNING, WITH THE
ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VLY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST TODAY, WITH PUSHING THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTN/TNGT. DEEP LAYER W TO W-SW FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO THE REGION...WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE BEING SUPPLIED
BY THE SYSTEM. EXPECT A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY MORNING TO
START...AND CWA SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS BY MIDDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY GENERALLY
WELL INTO THE 70S, WITH LOWER 80S EXPECTED WEST OF THE BAY.

EXPECT SOME SHRAS TO DEVELOP ALONG PRE-FRONTAL LEE TROUGH BY
AROUND/JUST AFTER 18Z, WITH ADDITIONAL SCT SHRAS AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE LOCAL AREA BY MID TO LATE TUES AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING. HI- RES MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A NARROW
AND UNORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CROSSING THE AREA WITH THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE AS THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA AND WITH WLY FLOW ALOFT. THETA-E ADVECTION AND TEMPS
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S WILL RESULT IN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. COOL TD VALUES, MEAGER MLCAPE VALUES
(PROGGED TO BE LESS THAN 500 J/KG)AND RATHER SHALLOW MID-LVL LAPSE
RATES ALL SEEM TO POINT TOWARDS ISOLATE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
FURTHER, MARGINAL SHEAR (0-6KM BULK SHEAR 25-30 KT) SHOULD PREVENT
OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION. THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY DEVELOPING
STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY SUB-SEVERE WIND GUSTS DUE TO THE DRY LOW
LEVELS. LIKELY POPS ARE IN PLACE MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64,
WITH ISOLATED THUNDER WORDING CARRIED ACROSS THE CWA. QPF AMOUNTS
WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH.

TONIGHT...
SHOWERS/ISO THUNDERSTORMS PUSH OFFSHORE THIS EVENING W/ A QUICKLY
CLEARING SKY THROUGH MIDNIGHT, AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS
FROM FALLING AS QUICKLY AS PROGGED BY COOLER MAV GUIDANCE...SO
HAVE OPTED TOWARDS WARMER ENVELOPE OF MOS GUIDANCE ACROSS THE
BOARD. EARLY MORNING LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND AND
OVER THE EASTERN SHORE...TO LOW 50S SE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODIFYING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW ON WED, AS NW
FLOW PERSISTS. REMNANT MID LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH (LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE) WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON
CU OVER THE LOCAL AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEASTERN COASTAL ZONES.
LOCAL THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATE HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S
OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER, WITH DEWPOINTS WILL MIX INTO THE UPR
20S/LOW 30S (YIELDING MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE MID 20S INLAND) AND
WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT, BUMPED TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S INLAND, WITH LOWER 60S OVER THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE. CONCERN
DOES EXIST FOR FIRE WX CONDITIONS WED...SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW
FOR DETAILS. EARLY MORNING LOWS THU MORNING IN THE U30S TO AROUND
40...UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY.

DRY AGAIN ON THU AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE REGION, BEFORE
SLIDING OFF OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE THU/ERY FRIDAY. HIGHS THURS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S. ONCE AGAIN, MIN RH VALUES FALL INTO THE
20S THU AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRANSITION TO A MORE
AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY PATTERN BY DAYS 6-7. SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE
THURS NIGHT...VEERING THE FLOW AROUND TO THE SOUTH AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVERHEAD. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT...BUT CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE NRN PLAINS
THURS NIGHT. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
LIFTING A WARM FRONT OVER THE REGION IN THE AMPLIFYING FLOW FRI
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION SAT. WLY
FLOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE GULF STATES WILL LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE APPALACHIANS. DEWPOINTS ONLY PROGGED TO WARM INTO THE LOW-MID
50S FRI. BEST DYNAMICS WILL ALSO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AS
ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...INCREASING
SPEEDS ALOFT AND SMALL AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES WILL BE ENOUGH TO
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS ALONG THE FRONT ATTM.
WITH THE LOCAL AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR FRI...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO
THE MID-UPPER 70S (NEAR 80 INLAND). WARM TEMPS COMBINED WITH LOW
LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL MAINTAIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON. THUS WILL CARRY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER. SRN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL OVER
THE CAROLINAS FRI NIGHT-SAT IN WLY FLOW ALOFT.

SHOULD REMAIN WARM SAT AS LOW LEVEL WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
PERSISTS...THUS DELAYING COOLER AIRMASS UNTIL SAT NIGHT. HAVE GONE
ON WARM EDGE OF GUIDANCE IN THIS PATTERN WITH HIGHS AGAIN MAINLY
75-80 F. LOOKS DRY AS WELL WITH DYNAMICS WELL TO THE NORTH
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED LATE DAY SHOWER COULD BRUSH NORTHERN ZONES.
MORE SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT ARISES SUN/MON AS THE GFS IS
MUCH COOLER BUT DRY AS A DEEP UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NE
STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND...WHILE THE ECMWF IS LESS AMPLIFIED AND
EVEN DEPICTS A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHING BACK INTO
REGION BY MON. RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SOLUTION AT THIS
TIME SO HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO WPC AND GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS.
WENT DRY SUN...THEN BRING SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHC
POP BY MON AREA-WIDE. HIGH GENLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LOWS
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 22/0540Z...LIGHT WINDS ARE GRADUALLY TURNING FROM EAST TO
SOUTH AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE OFFSHORE. MEANWHILE...
A SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BKN
CIGS AROUND 25 KFT AGL HAVE BEGUN TO OVERSPREAD THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO INTO TUE MORNING. THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA DURING TUE
AFTN/EVENING. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...POTENTIALLY
RESULTING IN BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO VIS/CIGS UNDER STRONGER STORM
CORES. THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME MORE SW-W
TODAY...WHICH WILL THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT WITH GUSTS OF
15-20 KT DURING THE AFTN. THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 KT WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS QUICKLY TURN TO THE
NW AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG THE
CHES BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS DUE TO POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR
ADVECTION. COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION ON WED...MAKING FOR A BREEZY DAY. AREAS WELL INLAND SHOULD
EXPERIENCE NW WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KT. AREAS CLOSER
TO THE CHES BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS (INCLUDING THE MD/VA EASTERN
SHORE) SHOULD EXPERIENCE NW WINDS OF 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS OF
25-30 KT. DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR
THROUGHOUT WED EVENING...BECOMING CALM INLAND BY 24/0400Z WHILE
SPEEDS STAY AROUND 10-15 KT NEAR THE COAST.

HIGH PRESSURE/DRY WX CONTINUES THU WITH NW WINDS TURNING TO THE W
DURING THE DAY. SPEEDS WILL STAY SOMEWHAT BREEZY NEAR THE COAST
AS A TIGHTENED SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE ARE ON FRI AND THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH PROBABILITIES LOOK RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT CONTINUED NE WINDS OVER THE WATERS BUT SPEEDS
ARE RAPIDLY DIMINISHING. WITH 10-11 SEC PERIOD SWELL HOWEVER..SEAS
HAVE BEEN SLOW TO SUBSIDE ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE MOUTH OF THE
BAY. HAVE EXTENDED SCA THROUGH 7 PM FOR MOUTH OF THE BAY FOR 3-4
FT WAVES. ALSO STILL NOTING SEAS OF 6-8 FT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AT 20Z...THUS SCA REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT (MAY NEED TO EXTEND THROUGH LATE MORNING
TUE ACRS SOUTHERN WATERS).

FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. COULD HAVE A FEW GUSTS TO LOW
END SCA OVER THE BAY/SND IN S-SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY
AFTN BUT EXPECT PREDOMINANT CONDITIONS TO BE SUB-SCA. THE FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH A PERIOD OF STRONG SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH RESULTANT N-NWLY CAA SURGE LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP SIGNIFICANTLY.
OFFSHORE NW FLOW PATTERN WILL GENLY KEEP SEAS FROM BUILDING TO RE
THAN 5-6 FT..WITH 3-4 FT WAVES ON THE BAY AND 2-3 FT ON THE
RIVERS. WILL SEE A SECONDARY SURGE WED NGT...FOLLOWED BY GRADUALLY
IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY THU (ALTHOUGH TRENDS
ARE A LITTLE SLOWER TO BUILD A SFC RIDGE INTO THE REGION SO IT
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY BREEZY IN NW FLOW THROUGH THU AFTN FOR NRN
COASTAL WATERS IN PARTICULAR). HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
FROM THE WEST BY LATE THU AFTN INTO FRI.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT, BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY OF A WIDESPREAD WETTING
RAIN IS NOT ALL THAT GOOD. DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MIN RH VALUES DROPPING TO BETWEEN 25-30% FOR
MOST LOCATIONS...AND 20FT WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 15-20 MPH WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30 MPH. THESE CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH
THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN FOR ALMOST A WEEK MAY ENHANCE THE
THREAT FOR WILDFIRES ON WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE
ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT WHERE MIN RH VALUES WILL BE THE
LOWEST...AND WHERE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF RAIN HAS FALLEN RECENTLY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM/SAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...LKB
FIRE WEATHER...










000
FXUS61 KLWX 220756
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
356 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF
THE COAST FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...BATCHES OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE BEING PUSHED TOWARD THE EAST OUT AHEAD OF A
DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE STRONGEST PORTION OF THE SHORTWAVE
IS A VORT MAX SLIDING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE WAVE...FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS FEATURE WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE US A
DRY/WINDY DAY ON WED. UNTIL THEN...IT WILL PUSH THE BEST DYNAMICS OF
THE UPPER WAVE OVER AND TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION DURING THE
DAYTIME HRS TODAY.

PLENTY OF CIRRUS AND UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS SLIDING OUT AHEAD OF THE
INCOMING SHOWERS. COUPLE THAT W/ SLOW-BUT STEADILY INCREASING SFC
DEWPOINTS AND OUT TEMPS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO DROP THRU THE 50S
OVERNIGHT...W/ ONLY A FEW LOCALES REACHING THE U40S. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THRU THE MRNG HRS...AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
GATHER AND BEGIN MOVING ACROSS THE LENGTH OF THE APLCNS IN THE
COUPLE OF HRS AFTER SUNRISE.

A SFC TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE LEE SIDE OF THE RANGE WILL LIKELY
KICK-OFF THE INITIAL WAVE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN THIS
MRNG...SPREADING A BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THRU THE LATE
MRNG AND EARLY AFTN HRS. TEMPS AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL RISE
STEADILY BACK INTO THE 60S AND L70S AS WARMER SLY WINDS PICK UP INTO
THE 10-15MPH RANGE...ADDING HIGHER DEWPOINTS AS WELL. CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL W/ THIS WAVE WILL BE MINIMAL...W/ ONLY EMBEDDED AREAS OF
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

NOW THAT WE`RE WITHIN RANGE OF SOME MOST NEAR-TERM CONVECTIVE TYPE
LOCAL MODELS...THE DAY LOOKS TO BE SHAPING UP W/ MOST OF THE QPF
OCCURRING DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. ONCE THE INITIAL AND
MORE SOLID WAVE OF SHOWERS MOVES THRU THE I-95 CORRIDOR DURING THE
MID-AFTN...CONDITIONS DRY OUT FAIRLY WELL TO THE WEST - EXCEPT FOR A
POSSIBLY BETTER ORGANIZED LINEAR STRUCTURE MOVING ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF THE AREA. STILL NOT A SOLID CONSENSUS THOUGH ON THIS
SOLUTION OR JUST ONE WAVE OF PRECIP AND DRY BEHIND IT.
REGARDLESS...THERE WILL BE AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND A DRY
ADIABATIC SLOPE TO HELP CONVECTION INITIATE GIVEN A FORCING
MECHANISM...SO THE CHANCES FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL
CARRY OVER INTO THE EVE HRS ACROSS THE REGION - UNTIL THE SUBSIDENCE
REGION ARRIVES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT.

AS THE VORT MAX FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION NEARS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT...SOME OF THE GUSTIER PARTS OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL GET
MIXED DOWN TO THE SFC AND NW WINDS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA W/
GUSTS IN THE 20-30MPH RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHTTIME HRS. DEWPOINTS
WILL DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 30S AND TEMPS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE
40S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...W/ LOWER WIND CHILLS FROM THE GUSTY AND DRY
NW WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL CAUSE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS...AND MAX TEMPS WILL BE BELOW CLIMO DUE TO THE COLD
ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM THE 40S ALONG THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS...TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
60S NEAR WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE...TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE VIRGINIA
PIEDMONT. A DEEP MIXING LAYER AND STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
CAUSE NORTHWEST WINDS TO GUST FREQUENTLY BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CAUSING DRY AND
CHILLY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. MIN TEMPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 30 IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TO
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THURSDAY...BRINGING DRY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SUNSHINE. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY...BRINGING MORE CLOUDS
ALONG WITH THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SHOWERS.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY BEFORE PASSING
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING FLOW AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR MILD CONDITIONS SATURDAY. A COUPLE
SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR LOCATIONS NEAR
THE MASON-DIXON LINE...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL TURN OUT DRY SINCE
LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY.

THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY...POSSIBLY BRINGING
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE AREA NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER CIRRUS WILL ACCUMULATE THRU 12Z...THEN MORE MID CLOUD DECKS
THRU MID MRNG. A WAVE OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL SWEEP THRU THE AREA
DURING THE LATE MRNG/EARLY AFTN BUT CIGS SHOULD STAY IN AT LEAST THE
LOW-END VFR RANGE W/ HARDLY ANY VSBYS RESTRICTIONS EXCEPT FOR ANY
LOCALIZED HEAVIER BATCHES. WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE SOUTH UNTIL
LATER THIS AFTN WHEN A COLD FRONT SLIDES THRU AND TURNS WINDS BACK
TO THE NW AND HIGHER GUSTS IN THE 20-30KT RANGE APPEAR FOR THE LATE
EVE/OVERNIGHT HRS. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT TONIGHT BUT WINDS WILL
STAY BREEZY INTO WED MRNG.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 30 TO 35 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
BEHIND A COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE TERMINALS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS FRIDAY...LIKELY
TRIGGERING A FEW SHOWERS. CIGS/VSBYS MAY APPROACH MVFR LEVELS DURING
THIS TIME. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE TERMINALS
SATURDAY...BUT MOST PLACES WILL END UP DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY FLOW WILL LAST FOR MUCH OF THE DAYTIME HRS...W/ SOME MINOR
CHANNELING BUT SUB-SCA UNTIL THIS AFTN. SHOWERS WILL CARRY ISOLATED
HIGHER WIND GUSTS THIS AFTN/EVE...THEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
BRING MORE WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS LATER THIS EVE. A FEW HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY...SO THE POTENTIAL
FOR HIGHER LOCALIZED WINDS EXISTS UNTIL A COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU
LATE TONIGHT...SPREADING MORE WIDESPREAD AND NW WINDS OVER THE
WATERS FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HRS...WELL INTO SCA RANGE.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY.
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY
ALSO BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS ON THURSDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS FRIDAY...LIKELY TRIGGERING
A FEW SHOWERS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS SATURDAY
BEFORE PASSING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FUEL MOISTURE REMAINS LOW THIS MORNING. THERE WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS
AROUND TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD
AVERAGE TO BE LESS THAN ONE-QUARTER INCH ACROSS MOST AREAS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. A DEEP
MIXING LAYER WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER AIR TO MIX DOWN...CAUSING LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS...LOW FUEL MOISTURE AND
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR THE SPREAD OF
WILDFIRES WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT SHIFT WILL COORDINATE WITH STATE
CONTACTS ABOUT FUEL MOISTURE TO SEE IF A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS
NECESSARY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS CAUSED TIDAL ANOMALIES TO BEA AROUND ONE-HALF
FOOT ABOVE THE ASTRONOMICAL NORM. THE TIDAL ANOMALIES SHOULD NOT
CHANGE MUCH TODAY AS THE FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS WEST OF SOUTH. THIS
WILL LIKELY CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO REMAIN BELOW THRESHOLDS FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. BLOWOUT TIDES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...GMS
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/GMS
MARINE...BJL/GMS
FIRE WEATHER...BJL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220611
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
211 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER SRN CANADA WILL BEGIN TO PHASE WITH A
SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE MID-MS VALLEY TONIGHT OVER THE CNTRL
CONUS...PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION. MID-
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL DECOUPLE...INCREASING CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES WILL RESULT IN LOWS FALLING ONLY INTO THE MID/UPR 40S
TO LOW 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...
UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AS ENERGY DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...AIDED BY A 100+ KT UPPER JET STREAK. A LEADING
SHORTWAVE/VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL LIFT OVER THE LOCAL
AREA...RESULTING IN A PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROUGH ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. DEEP LAYER WLY FLOW WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION...WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE
BEING SUPPLIED BY THE SYSTEM. PRECIP WATERS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TO NEAR ONE INCH...BUT DEWPOINTS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW-
MID 50S. TUES MORNING WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE. UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD OVER THE OH VALLEY INTO
THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION TUES. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE
LOCAL AREA EARLY TUES AFTERNOON...CROSSING THE REGION INTO EARLY
TUES EVENING AND PUSHING OUT TO SEA LATE TUES EVENING. HI-RES
MODELS INDICATE A NARROW AND UNORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWERS CROSSING
THE AREA WITH THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE AS THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA AND WITH WLY FLOW ALOFT. THETA-E ADVECTION AND TEMPS
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S WILL RESULT IN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. THE BIGGEST LIMITATION TO INSTABILITY
WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL DEWPOINTS. MLCAPE VALUES PROGGED TO BE
LESS THAN 500 J/KG WHILE SREF CAPE PROBS >1K J/KG ARE ONLY 20 PCT.
LI VALUES ALSO GENERALLY 0 TO -2. WITH THAT...DO ANTICIPATE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...BUT MARGINAL SHEAR (0-6KM BULK SHEAR 25-30
KT) WILL PREVENT OVERALL ORGANIZATION. THE MAIN THREAT FROM
DEVELOPING STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY SUB-SEVERE WIND GUSTS DUE TO THE
DRY LOW LEVELS. HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER BUT
HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE NORTH TO LIKELY POPS (GENERALLY
NORTH OF RICHMOND). QPF AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PUSH OFFSHORE TUES
EVENING.

TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...
SKIES WILL RAPIDLY CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT TUES NIGHT AS COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. BREEZY NW WINDS
(10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH) WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH MIXING TO
KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING FARTHER THAN THE MID- UPPER 40S INLAND TO
THE LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
IN FROM THE NW ON WEDS AS NW FLOW PERSISTS. REMNANT MID LEVEL
MOISTURE UNDER A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVING
DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH (LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE)
WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON CU OVER THE REGION. TEMPS WILL ONLY WARM
INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL MIX INTO THE UPR 20S/LOW
30S...WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE MID 20S INLAND. DRY AGAIN ON
THURS AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE REGION...AND LOCATES OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST LATE THURS. LOWS THURS MORNING FORECAST TO BE
IN THE UPPER 30S-LOW 40S INLAND. HIGHS THURS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRANSITION TO A MORE
AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY PATTERN BY DAYS 6-7. SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE
THURS NIGHT...VEERING THE FLOW AROUND TO THE SOUTH AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVERHEAD. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT...BUT CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE NRN PLAINS
THURS NIGHT. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
LIFTING A WARM FRONT OVER THE REGION IN THE AMPLIFYING FLOW FRI
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION SAT. WLY
FLOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE GULF STATES WILL LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE APPALACHIANS. DEWPOINTS ONLY PROGGED TO WARM INTO THE LOW-MID
50S FRI. BEST DYNAMICS WILL ALSO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AS
ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...INCREASING
SPEEDS ALOFT AND SMALL AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES WILL BE ENOUGH TO
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS ALONG THE FRONT ATTM.
WITH THE LOCAL AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR FRI...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO
THE MID-UPPER 70S (NEAR 80 INLAND). WARM TEMPS COMBINED WITH LOW
LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL MAINTAIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON. THUS WILL CARRY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER. SRN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL OVER
THE CAROLINAS FRI NIGHT-SAT IN WLY FLOW ALOFT.

SHOULD REMAIN WARM SAT AS LOW LEVEL WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
PERSISTS...THUS DELAYING COOLER AIRMASS UNTIL SAT NIGHT. HAVE GONE
ON WARM EDGE OF GUIDANCE IN THIS PATTERN WITH HIGHS AGAIN MAINLY
75-80 F. LOOKS DRY AS WELL WITH DYNAMICS WELL TO THE NORTH
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED LATE DAY SHOWER COULD BRUSH NORTHERN ZONES.
MORE SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT ARISES SUN/MON AS THE GFS IS
MUCH COOLER BUT DRY AS A DEEP UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NE
STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND...WHILE THE ECMWF IS LESS AMPLIFIED AND
EVEN DEPICTS A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHING BACK INTO
REGION BY MON. RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SOLUTION AT THIS
TIME SO HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO WPC AND GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS.
WENT DRY SUN...THEN BRING SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHC
POP BY MON AREA-WIDE. HIGH GENLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LOWS
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 22/0540Z...LIGHT WINDS ARE GRADUALLY TURNING FROM EAST TO
SOUTH AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE OFFSHORE. MEANWHILE...
A SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BKN
CIGS AROUND 25 KFT AGL HAVE BEGUN TO OVERSPREAD THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO INTO TUE MORNING. THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA DURING TUE
AFTN/EVENING. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...POTENTIALLY
RESULTING IN BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO VIS/CIGS UNDER STRONGER STORM
CORES. THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME MORE SW-W
TODAY...WHICH WILL THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT WITH GUSTS OF
15-20 KT DURING THE AFTN. THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 KT WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS QUICKLY TURN TO THE
NW AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG THE
CHES BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS DUE TO POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR
ADVECTION. COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION ON WED...MAKING FOR A BREEZY DAY. AREAS WELL INLAND SHOULD
EXPERIENCE NW WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KT. AREAS CLOSER
TO THE CHES BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS (INCLUDING THE MD/VA EASTERN
SHORE) SHOULD EXPERIENCE NW WINDS OF 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS OF
25-30 KT. DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR
THROUGHOUT WED EVENING...BECOMING CALM INLAND BY 24/0400Z WHILE
SPEEDS STAY AROUND 10-15 KT NEAR THE COAST.

HIGH PRESSURE/DRY WX CONTINUES THU WITH NW WINDS TURNING TO THE W
DURING THE DAY. SPEEDS WILL STAY SOMEWHAT BREEZY NEAR THE COAST
AS A TIGHTENED SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE ARE ON FRI AND THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH PROBABILITIES LOOK RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT CONTINUED NE WINDS OVER THE WATERS BUT SPEEDS
ARE RAPIDLY DIMINISHING. WITH 10-11 SEC PERIOD SWELL HOWEVER..SEAS
HAVE BEEN SLOW TO SUBSIDE ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE MOUTH OF THE
BAY. HAVE EXTENDED SCA THROUGH 7 PM FOR MOUTH OF THE BAY FOR 3-4
FT WAVES. ALSO STILL NOTING SEAS OF 6-8 FT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AT 20Z...THUS SCA REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT (MAY NEED TO EXTEND THROUGH LATE MORNING
TUE ACRS SOUTHERN WATERS).

FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. COULD HAVE A FEW GUSTS TO LOW
END SCA OVER THE BAY/SND IN S-SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY
AFTN BUT EXPECT PREDOMINANT CONDITIONS TO BE SUB-SCA. THE FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH A PERIOD OF STRONG SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH RESULTANT N-NWLY CAA SURGE LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP SIGNIFICANTLY.
OFFSHORE NW FLOW PATTERN WILL GENLY KEEP SEAS FROM BUILDING TO RE
THAN 5-6 FT..WITH 3-4 FT WAVES ON THE BAY AND 2-3 FT ON THE
RIVERS. WILL SEE A SECONDARY SURGE WED NGT...FOLLOWED BY GRADUALLY
IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY THU (ALTHOUGH TRENDS
ARE A LITTLE SLOWER TO BUILD A SFC RIDGE INTO THE REGION SO IT
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY BREEZY IN NW FLOW THROUGH THU AFTN FOR NRN
COASTAL WATERS IN PARTICULAR). HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
FROM THE WEST BY LATE THU AFTN INTO FRI.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY OF A WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN
IS NOT ALL THAT GOOD. DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH MIN RH VALUES DROPPING TO BETWEEN 25-30% FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...AND 20FT WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 15-20 MPH WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30 MPH. THESE CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH THE LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT RAIN FOR ALMOST A WEEK MAY ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR
WILDFIRES ON WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE ACROSS THE VA
PIEDMONT WHERE MIN RH VALUES WILL BE THE LOWEST...AND WHERE THE
LEAST AMOUNT OF RAIN HAS FALLEN RECENTLY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM/TMG
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...LKB
FIRE WEATHER...AKQ









000
FXUS61 KRNK 220543
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
143 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WILL WEAKEN AND PASS OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. A COLD
FRONT IN THE MIDWEST WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING BLUSTERY AND COOLER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 915 PM EDT MONDAY...

ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND POPS FOR TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. LOCAL RNK WRFARW BRINGS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN THE FAR WEST AROUND 08Z TUESDAY. THE HRRR IS A LITTLE
SLOWER WITH THE CONVECTION BRING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS IN AROUND
10Z. THE NAM AND ECMWF HAVE SIMILAR TIMING OF PRECIPITATION...WITH
THE GFS A BIT QUICKER WITH CONVECTION. REGIONAL WSR-88D IMAGES
DEPICTED A FEW ECHOES MOSTLY ALOFT TO OUR WEST FIGHTING VERY DRY
AIR AS SEEN IN THE EVENING 00Z/8PM RNK SOUNDING. FIRST FEW ROUND
OF SHOWERS WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE THE COLUMN. BY DAYBREAK
EXPECTED SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN ADVANCE OF
APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
40S IN THE COLDER VALLEYS TO MID 50S ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES. THE
COLD FRONT WILL TRAVEL SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE STILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THE
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WEAK
WESTERLY FLOW/SHEAR AND LIMITED LAPSES RATES EXPECTED WITH STORMS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 80 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.


AS OF 605 PM EDT MONDAY...

ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS ACCORDING TO LATEST OBS AND
MODEL TRENDS. THIS EVENING RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION WILL WEAKEN
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AS 1019 SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER LIFTS NORTHEAST. A COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST WILL APPROACH
LATE TONIGHT...WITH A GRADUAL RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LOW
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ARE A CHALLENGE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BIG
DROPS IN THE EAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND RISING TEMPERATURES
OR STEADY IN THE WEST WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER. WILL MONITOR
THIS EVENING FOR ADDITIONAL CHANGES LATER TONIGHT. HAVE A GOOD
EVENING.


AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...

RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH PULLS OUT TO THE NE AND UPSTREAM 5H
HEIGHT FALLS DAMPEN OUT THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT ALONG
WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH/MID CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ESPCLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER THE MID LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY SO
THINKING THAT MOST -SHRA SHOULD STAY JUST WEST OF THE CWA THROUGH
DAYBREAK AT THIS POINT. OTRW MAINLY CLEAR EARLY THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY WEST AND PC EAST BY MORNING. LOWS A BIT TRICKY WITH
POTENTIAL TO SEE QUICK TEMP FALLS WHILE CLEAR THIS EVENING...THEN
A STEADYING OUT SCENARIO OVERNIGHT ESPCLY MOUNTAINS AS CLOUDS
ARRIVE. THEREFORE LEANED CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET MOS WEST ESPCLY
RIDGES...AND WITH THE COLDER MAV EAST WHERE SHOULD STAY CLEAR
LONGER.

STILL QUESTIONS IN REGARDS TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITH THE PASSING
COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THE DEGREE OF QPF THAT MIGHT OCCUR
OUTSIDE OF THE WESTERN SLOPES. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT
SLOWER IN PUSHING INITIAL PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF SHRA OVER THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS TUESDAY MORNING WHICH WOULD ALLOW MORE TIME FOR MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP OUT EAST CLOSER TO THE LEE
TROUGH. HOWEVER APPEARS LOTS OF CLOUDS TO ARRIVE EARLY OVER THE WEST
WHICH COULD LIMIT HEATING AND CAUSE A JUMP IN FADING SHRA OVER THE
WEST TO A DEEPER BAND OF SHRA/TSRA TO THE EAST OF THE CWA GIVEN
DEEPENING DOWNSLOPE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. FOR NOW WILL GO A BIT
SLOWER...SIMILAR TO THE SPC WRF SOLUTION IN BRINGING SHRA INTO THE
WEST BY MID/LATE MORNING UNDER A FAINT WAVE ALOFT...THEN WEAKENING
BEFORE PERHAPS REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CWA BY MID
AFTERNOON UNDER THE LEE TROUGH AS SEEING JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
BACKING FOR THIS TO OCCUR. OTRW SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW GIVEN
RATHER WEAK WESTERLY FLOW/SHEAR AND LAPSES...WITH ONLY THE DRIER
LOW LEVELS POSSIBLY ENHANCING LOCALIZED WINDS IF ANY CELLS CAN
GET ORGANIZED/STRONG ENOUGH AND A SPLIT OUT EAST DOESN`T OCCUR.

THUS CONTINUED THE TREND OF GOING WITH A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS
FROM NW TO SE DURING THE DAY FOR NOW WITH LESS SE GIVEN WEST
WINDS AND HIGHER PROBS NW WHERE UP TO A HALF INCH OF QPF COULD
OCCUR. ELSW APPEARS LOW QPF WITH ONLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS
EAST AND PERHAPS UP TO A QUARTER INCH ELSW WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO PUSH 80 AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY PIEDMONT...WITH
70S BLUE RIDGE BUT ONLY MID/UPPER 60S WEST WHERE CLOUDS/-SHRA
COULD KEEP VALUES EVEN COOLER PENDING EARLIER TIMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...

BY 00Z (7 PM EDT) TUESDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL EAST OF OUR
FORECAST AIR WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GENERATING A FEW UPSLOPE
RAIN SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY WITH STRONG
PRESSURE RISES MOVING THROUGH BETWEEN 03Z-09Z. BUFKIT TIME CROSS
SECTION SHOWS 50 KTS ABOVE THE INVERSION AOA 5KT FEET. BUMPED UP
WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT FORECAST
VALUES STILL BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO
COOLER GFS GUIDANCE IN THE MOUNTAINS.

WINDS GRADUALLY RELAX WEDNESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. GOOD DRYING ALSO EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...WITH RH
VALUES FALLING INTO THE 20S FOR MOST AREAS. LEANED TOWARD THE
WARMER GFS GUIDANCE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH DOWNSLOPING
WINDS...WITH A FEW DEGREES SHAVED OFF GUIDANCE IN THE MOUNTAINS
WHERE COLD AIR ADVECTION LINGERS.

GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING DEVELOPING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC
RIDGE AXIS FORECAST TO BE OVERHEAD BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WITH
PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN PLACE...SOME AREAS OF FROST POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT...WITH A RETURN TO A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES...WITH MOST AREAS REACHING
OR EXCEEDING 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...

DESPITE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT FRIDAY...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
WITH A DEEP SOUTHWEST/WEST FLOW...SHOULD CONTINUE THE TREND FOR
MODERATING TEMPS.

THE PATTERN FRIDAY APPEARS VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY`S...WITH A FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE WEST EARLY ON FRIDAY AND EXITING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE RACING NORTH TO INTERCEPT THE FRONT IN THE FAR
EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BE WHERE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAKE PLACE.

WHILE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION IS DELAYED UNTIL LATER SATURDAY...SO ANOTHER WARM DAY
IS ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

AFTER SATURDAY THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG RANGE
MODELS WITH THE GFS...CANADIAN AND GFS ENSEMBLES ALL KEEPING A SFC
FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WITH A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z/21
ECMWF KEEPS OUR AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THE GFS HAS SHOWN MORE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND THE LATEST GLOBAL
WIND OSCILLATION (GWO) PLOT FAVORS AN EASTERN U.S. TROF.
THEREFORE...NUDGED TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES AND KEPT AREA FREE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A QUICK LOOK AT THE 12Z ECMWF
SHOWS A TREND TOWARD THIS COOLER SOLUTION.

AS A SFC WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURNS...SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. CONFIDENCE ON
THE LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT AND CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM EDT MONDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
SHIFT EAST WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATER THIS MORNING.
LOCALIZED MVFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WITH PASSING SHOWERS
WITH BEST CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBYS AT BLF/LWB WITH ONLY
LIGHTER SHOWERS OUT TO THE BLUE RIDGE LATER IN THE MORNING. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ALONG THE LYH-DAN CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILING...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD AS CONDITIONS LIKELY TO BE CHANGEABLE.

THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN A
RETURN TO VFR WEATHER AND GUSTY NW WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME MVFR CIGS LINGERING
OVER THE FAR WESTERN UPSLOPE SITES IN SE WEST VA.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO AND OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD VFR LIKELY. ANOTHER FAST MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS MOVE EAST WITH
THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 927 PM EDT MONDAY...

MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY RECOVER OVERNIGHT AND THEN MOISTEN ABOVE
60-70 PERCENT BY EARLY TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH QPF RANGING
FROM ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH IN PARTS OF WEST VA...TO A TENTH
OR QUARTER INCH BLUE RIDGE...TO LIKELY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH PIEDMONT. STRONG NW WINDS FOLLOWING THE FRONT MAY BE OF ADDED
CONCERN ON WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH ANOTHER QUICK DROP IN HUMIDITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY
LEAD TO ENHANCED FIRE DANGER ESPECIALLY IF LESS WETTING RAINFALL
IS REALIZED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY.

THE NEXT BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR PRESCRIBED BURNS WHERE GOOD DRYING
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST...AND WHERE TRANSPORT WINDS WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE DUE TO BETTER TRANSPORT AND CONSISTENCY OF DIRECTION
WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WERT
NEAR TERM...JH/KK
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...PH
AVIATION...KK/PC
FIRE WEATHER...JH/KK/WERT




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