000
FXUS61 KRNK 221150
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
750 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING... FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

A COUPLE OF CONCERNS TODAY. THE MAIN CONCERN IS WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN IN THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOWEST
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY OBSERVED IN AREAS THAT HAVE
RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN RECENTLY AND MOSTLY IN THE MOUNTAINS INCLUDING
WATAUGA... ASHE... GRAYSON... INTO SMYTH AND TAZEWELL OF VA.
HOWEVER... GIVEN THE EXPECTED SCATTERED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON... IT APPEARS THAT THE FLOODING THREAT WILL BE
ISOLATED. THEREFORE... OPTED OUT OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THE
CURRENT TIME. THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR INDICATE
AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER OUR REGION THIS
AFTERNOON... PRIMARILY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS SPREADING
NE INTO THE VA PIEDMONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE CHANCE CATEGORY POP FOR THOSE ZONES THIS AFTERNOON.

EVEN MORE PROBLEMATIC MAY BE THE POSSIBLE LINE OF CONVECTION THAT
THE HI-RES MODELS AND EVEN A FEW OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE
PICKING UP ON ACROSS KY/TN THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE MODELS
INDICATE A POTENTIAL MCS THAT MAY HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO SURGE
INTO FAR SW VA... SOUTHERN WVA... AND POSSIBLY NORTHWEST NC BETWEEN
00Z AND 06Z TONIGHT.  IT IS UNCLEAR HOW STRONG OR HOW FAST THIS
CONVECTION WOULD BE AT THE CURRENT TIME. IF THIS APPEARS MORE LIKELY
IN THE MODEL RUNS TODAY... THERE MAY BE A CONCERN WITH FLASH
FLOODING THIS EVENING. WE WILL GO WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LOW END LIKELY
THIS EVENING TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL.

THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE JUST WEST OF
OUR REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE WARM AND HUMID WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. HIGHS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID
80S IN THE SOUTHEAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DIP BACK INTO THE 50S TO MID
60S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

A LEAD SURFACE TROUGH OR CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW MAY AFFECT THE REGION
BEFORE THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT ARRIVES THURSDAY. THIS MAY AFFECT THE
CONVECTIVE CHANCES GREATLY AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT ARRIVES THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE... A PERIOD OF LIKELY POP CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT
THURSDAY... POSSIBLY LASTING INTO THE EARLY EVENING AROUND DANVILLE.
LACK OF HEATING THURSDAY... ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MAY
ALSO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION. THE AREA WITH THE BETTER INSOLATION
COULD BE SOUTHSIDE VA/NW NC PIEDMONT. AT THIS TIME...THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS A 5 PERCENT THREAT OF SVR WX MAINLY OVER THE
PIEDMONT AND TIDEWATER AREAS OF VA/NC.

THE FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA GOING INTO THURSDAY EVENING WITH
LINGERING SHORTWAVE INDUCED SHOWERS ACROSS THE MTNS OVERNIGHT. THE
MAIN SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST BY 12Z FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR
ARRIVING. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S WEST TO
THE LOWER TO MID 70S EAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY:
QUITE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST... WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS HAVING PUSHED TO THE EAST
OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR THIS TIME FRAME. THIS WILL YIELD
GENERALLY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS... WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT TUESDAY

FOR THE LONG RANGE FORECAST...THE MODELS KEEP A TROUGH IN PLACE
EARLY ON AND THEN GO MORE TOWARD A ZONAL TO RIDGE CONFIGURATION BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WE SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AS SFC HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THIS WEEKEND...SO
WEEKEND HOLIDAY PLANS ARE LOOKING GOOD FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AT
LEAST SATURDAY...AS THE LATEST ECMWF SHOWS ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
PUSHING ACROSS BY SUNDAY AND MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE MTN
EMPIRE OF SW VA/INTO THE NC MTNS SUNDAY MORNING.

THE FLOW SWINGS MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY EVENING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY AND TEMPS. MODELS KEEPING MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND WEST...ALTHOUGH A WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT CAN BRING STORMS WORKING EAST INTO THE MTNS. GIVEN WPC
SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST MORE ON THE
LOW CHANCE SIDE...BUT IF THE 12Z ECMWF VERIFIES WE COULD BE GETTING
SOAKED AGAIN MONDAY-WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

PATCHY FOG WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY...ALTHOUGH IFR CIGS MAY LINGER
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT FROM DAN-LYH FOR A WHILE THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY VFR AFT 14Z WITH SC/CU DEVELOPING FROM EARLY
MORNING MOISTURE. MAIN CONCERN WILL COME LATE TODAY AS THE STRONG
COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR ALL OF THE SEVERE WEATHER IN THE
MIDWEST RECENTLY APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST. ECMWF/GFS
GENERALLY CONSISTENT ON A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
INTO FAR SW VA FROM KY/TN IN THE 00Z-04Z TIME FRAME...THEN
GENERALLY DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NEW RIVER VALLEY
REGION...SIMILAR TIMING TO WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY...BUT EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO BE A LITTLE MORE POTENT THIS EVENING. DO NOT EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO SURVIVE AS IT REACHES THE PIEDMONT.
HOWEVER...MODELS SHOW...ESPECIALLY THE GFS...POTENTIAL TSRA
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT...LIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD
LYH/DAN/EVEN ROA BY LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE PLAYED SOME POTENTIAL FOR
THIS INTO THE TAFS. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY MVFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS IN
VCTS AND/OR TSRA MOSTLY AFT 00Z...AGAIN LITTLE OF WHICH SHOULD
REACH THE PIEDMONT. S-SW WINDS 5-10KTS THROUGH TAF VALID
PERIOD...WITH LOW END GUSTS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD.

AS OF 202 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE MAIN CONCERN THIS MORNING APPEARS TO BE FOG AROUND AREAS THAT
HAD HEAVY RAINFALL RECENTLY. LATEST DATA SUGGESTS PATCHY FOG WITH
SOME AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG. IFR TO LIFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE EARLIER SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED. ONLY ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING.

A QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE ONSET
OF HEATING AND DECENT MIXING BY MID OR LATE MORNING. THINK ALL SITES
WILL BE VFR BY 15Z/11AM BUT WITH A BETTER SHOT AT AFTERNOON
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ESPCLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY 20Z/4PM. WITH
POTENTIAL TO SEE A BAND OF SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP WESTERN
SLOPES...INCLUDED A PREVAILING -TSRA THREAT AT BOTH KBLF/KLWB
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE LEAVING ELSW VFR W/OUT CONVECTION UNDER
SCTD/BKN 5-6K FT CU FIELDS.

THE REGION STAYS IN A WARM...MOIST AIRMASS THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY.
THIS WILL BRING THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY ALONG WITH AREAS OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG.

HIGH PRESSURE AND BETTER FLYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY
AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/JH/KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...RAB

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221149
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
749 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULL A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COMBINATION OF AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLEARING HAS RESULTED
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FA AS
WELL AS SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG. ONCE AGAIN...S-SW WINDS AT OR
ABOVE 5 KT WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG FROM FORMING. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT WITH LOWS STRUGGLING TO DIP BELOW 70.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PERSIST WED AND
WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN INTO THE EVENING. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE OF PRECIP DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY FORCING.

FOR WED...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE WED INTO WED NGT AHEAD
OF A LO PRES SYSTM PASSING THRU THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DID
INCLUDE A SLGT CHC FOR A SHWR/TSTM WED AFTN/EVENG WITH A WARM AND
MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...HOWEVER MOST AREAS SHUD REMAIN DRY DUE TO
A LACK OF FORCING. OTW...EXPECT A PRTLY CLDY SKY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 80S.

FOR THU...COLD FRNT APPROACHES FROM THE OH VALLEY...AND RAIN
LIKELY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND S/W ENERGY ALOFT. UP TO A HALF
INCH OF PRECIP PSBL WITH THE BEST CHC FOR RAIN IN THE AFTN. HI
TEMPS GENRLY IN THE LO 80S. READINGS WILL BE A BIT COOLER NEAR
THE COAST. THE RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THU NGT/FRI MRNG AS
THE COLD FRNT ADVANCES OFF THE COAST. NOT EXPECTING SKIES TO
COMPLETELY CLR OUT...WITH MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE ALOFT FOLLOWING
THE SFC FROPA.

DRIER CONDS EXPECTED BY FRI AFTN AS FLOW BECOMES NWLY FOR THE
FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL DAYS...AND TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE MID 70S
IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW FRI NIGHT. CLRG
& COOL WITH DECOUPLING WINDS INLAND. CSTL WNDS STAY MIXED DUE TO LOW
PRS SLOWLY PULLING AWAY TO THE NE. LOWS M-U40S FROM I95 ON W...
NEAR 50 INVOF CHES BAY AND L-M50S AT THE COAST.

SUNNY & PLEASANT SAT WITH H5 RIDGE OVRHD. HIGHS IN THE L-M70S XCPT
60S AT THE BEACHES. PT CLDY SAT NITE AS SOME HIGH LVL MSTR OVRSPRDS
RGN. LOWS 50-55. PT SUNNY AND A BIT WRMR SUN. HIGHS M-U70S XCPT
65-70 AT THE BEACHES.

TRICKY FCST ERLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS NOW INCRG MSTR DUE TO COMBO OF
ONSHORE E-SE FLOW AND WRM FRNT APPRCHG FROM THE SW. APPEARS BEST
SPRT FOR POPS WILL BE ACROSS SRN & WRN VA/NRN NC MONDAY & MON
NITE. KEPT SLGHT CHC POPS ON TUE FOR NOW GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE
THIS FAR OUT. HIGHS MON L-M70S. LOWS 55-60. HIGHS TUE M-U70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CIGS XPCTD TO BURN OFF NEXT 2-4 HRS. WILL EVENTUALLY SEE
SCT-BKN CU BTWN 3-4K FT THIS AFTRN. KEPT THUNDER OUT OF FCST AS
CHCS ARE TO LOW TO INCLUDE ATTM.

OUTLOOK: IFR STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THU MORNG. BETTER CHC
FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS THU AFTN AND EVENG...AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FM THE W. FRONT PUSHES OFF THE CST DURING FRI...WITH
LAGGING UPR TROF NOT MOVNG OFFSHR UNTIL LATE FRI NGT. SO...THERE
COULD BE LINGERING LWR CIGS AND VSBYS FM SCTD PCPN RIGHT THRU FRI
NGT. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SAT AND SUN...AS HI PRES BLDS INTO
AND OVR THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE ISSUED A SCA FOR THE THREE NRN CSTL WTRS FM THIS EVENG THRU
THU EVENG. S WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 25 KT DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD WILL INCREASE SEAS TO 5 TO 6 FT. OTHERWISE...WINDS
/WAVES/SEAS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA OVR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WTRS. COLD FRNT WILL THEN CROSS THE WTRS LATE THU NGT INTO
FRI AFTN. STRONG NW OR N WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT AND GUSTY (LIKELY
SCA CONDITIONS) WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT AND ASSOC LAGGING UPR
TROF FRI AFTN INTO SAT. HI PRES WILL BLD IN FM THE NW FRI NGT THRU
SAT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD/DAP
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...MPR/TMG
MARINE...TMG

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220914
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
514 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULL A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COMBINATION OF AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLEARING HAS RESULTED
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FA AS
WELL AS SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG. ONCE AGAIN...S-SW WINDS AT OR
ABOVE 5 KT WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG FROM FORMING. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT WITH LOWS STRUGGLING TO DIP BELOW 70.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PERSIST WED AND
WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN INTO THE EVENING. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE OF PRECIP DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY FORCING.

FOR WED...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE WED INTO WED NGT AHEAD
OF A LO PRES SYSTM PASSING THRU THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DID
INCLUDE A SLGT CHC FOR A SHWR/TSTM WED AFTN/EVENG WITH A WARM AND
MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...HOWEVER MOST AREAS SHUD REMAIN DRY DUE TO
A LACK OF FORCING. OTW...EXPECT A PRTLY CLDY SKY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 80S.

FOR THU...COLD FRNT APPROACHES FROM THE OH VALLEY...AND RAIN
LIKELY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND S/W ENERGY ALOFT. UP TO A HALF
INCH OF PRECIP PSBL WITH THE BEST CHC FOR RAIN IN THE AFTN. HI
TEMPS GENRLY IN THE LO 80S. READINGS WILL BE A BIT COOLER NEAR
THE COAST. THE RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THU NGT/FRI MRNG AS
THE COLD FRNT ADVANCES OFF THE COAST. NOT EXPECTING SKIES TO
COMPLETELY CLR OUT...WITH MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE ALOFT FOLLOWING
THE SFC FROPA.

DRIER CONDS EXPECTED BY FRI AFTN AS FLOW BECOMES NWLY FOR THE
FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL DAYS...AND TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE MID 70S
IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW FRI NIGHT. CLRG
& COOL WITH DECOUPLING WINDS INLAND. CSTL WNDS STAY MIXED DUE TO LOW
PRS SLOWLY PULLING AWAY TO THE NE. LOWS M-U40S FROM I95 ON W...
NEAR 50 INVOF CHES BAY AND L-M50S AT THE COAST.

SUNNY & PLEASANT SAT WITH H5 RIDGE OVRHD. HIGHS IN THE L-M70S XCPT
60S AT THE BEACHES. PT CLDY SAT NITE AS SOME HIGH LVL MSTR OVRSPRDS
RGN. LOWS 50-55. PT SUNNY AND A BIT WRMR SUN. HIGHS M-U70S XCPT
65-70 AT THE BEACHES.

TRICKY FCST ERLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS NOW INCRG MSTR DUE TO COMBO OF
ONSHORE E-SE FLOW AND WRM FRNT APPRCHG FROM THE SW. APPEARS BEST
SPRT FOR POPS WILL BE ACROSS SRN & WRN VA/NRN NC MONDAY & MON
NITE. KEPT SLGHT CHC POPS ON TUE FOR NOW GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE
THIS FAR OUT. HIGHS MON L-M70S. LOWS 55-60. HIGHS TUE M-U70S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT MVFR/IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP OR OCCUR ACRS THE AREA UNTIL ARND
15Z-16Z THIS MORNG DUE TO MOIST SSW FLO. VFR CONDITIONS THEN
EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH ONLY AN ISLTD SHOWER OR
TSTM POSSIBLE THIS AFTN/EVENG.

OUTLOOK: IFR STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THU MORNG. BETTER CHC
FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS THU AFTN AND EVENG...AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FM THE W. FRONT PUSHES OFF THE CST DURING FRI...WITH
LAGGING UPR TROF NOT MOVNG OFFSHR UNTIL LATE FRI NGT. SO...THERE
COULD BE LINGERING LWR CIGS AND VSBYS FM SCTD PCPN RIGHT THRU FRI
NGT. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SAT AND SUN...AS HI PRES BLDS INTO
AND OVR THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE ISSUED A SCA FOR THE THREE NRN CSTL WTRS FM THIS EVENG THRU
THU EVENG. S WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 25 KT DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD WILL INCREASE SEAS TO 5 TO 6 FT. OTHERWISE...WINDS
/WAVES/SEAS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA OVR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WTRS. COLD FRNT WILL THEN CROSS THE WTRS LATE THU NGT INTO
FRI AFTN. STRONG NW OR N WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT AND GUSTY (LIKELY
SCA CONDITIONS) WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT AND ASSOC LAGGING UPR
TROF FRI AFTN INTO SAT. HI PRES WILL BLD IN FM THE NW FRI NGT THRU
SAT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD/DAP
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220834
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
434 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULL A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COMBINATION OF AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLEARING HAS RESULTED
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FA AS
WELL AS SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG. ONCE AGAIN...S-SW WINDS AT OR
ABOVE 5 KT WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG FROM FORMING. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT WITH LOWS STRUGGLING TO DIP BELOW 70.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PERSIST WED AND
WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN INTO THE EVENING. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE OF PRECIP DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY FORCING.

FOR WED...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE WED INTO WED NGT AHEAD
OF A LO PRES SYSTM PASSING THRU THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DID
INCLUDE A SLGT CHC FOR A SHWR/TSTM WED AFTN/EVENG WITH A WARM AND
MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...HOWEVER MOST AREAS SHUD REMAIN DRY DUE TO
A LACK OF FORCING. OTW...EXPECT A PRTLY CLDY SKY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 80S.

FOR THU...COLD FRNT APPROACHES FROM THE OH VALLEY...AND RAIN
LIKELY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND S/W ENERGY ALOFT. UP TO A HALF
INCH OF PRECIP PSBL WITH THE BEST CHC FOR RAIN IN THE AFTN. HI
TEMPS GENRLY IN THE LO 80S. READINGS WILL BE A BIT COOLER NEAR
THE COAST. THE RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THU NGT/FRI MRNG AS
THE COLD FRNT ADVANCES OFF THE COAST. NOT EXPECTING SKIES TO
COMPLETELY CLR OUT...WITH MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE ALOFT FOLLOWING
THE SFC FROPA.

DRIER CONDS EXPECTED BY FRI AFTN AS FLOW BECOMES NWLY FOR THE
FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL DAYS...AND TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE MID 70S
IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW FRI NIGHT. CLRG
& COOL WITH DECOUPLING WINDS INLAND. CSTL WNDS STAY MIXED DUE TO LOW
PRS SLOWLY PULLING AWAY TO THE NE. LOWS M-U40S FROM I95 ON W...
NEAR 50 INVOF CHES BAY AND L-M50S AT THE COAST.

SUNNY & PLEASANT SAT WITH H5 RIDGE OVRHD. HIGHS IN THE L-M70S XCPT
60S AT THE BEACHES. PT CLDY SAT NITE AS SOME HIGH LVL MSTR OVRSPRDS
RGN. LOWS 50-55. PT SUNNY AND A BIT WRMR SUN. HIGHS M-U70S XCPT
65-70 AT THE BEACHES.

TRICKY FCST ERLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS NOW INCRG MSTR DUE TO COMBO OF
ONSHORE E-SE FLOW AND WRM FRNT APPRCHG FROM THE SW. APPEARS BEST
SPRT FOR POPS WILL BE ACROSS SRN & WRN VA/NRN NC MONDAY & MON
NITE. KEPT SLGHT CHC POPS ON TUE FOR NOW GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE
THIS FAR OUT. HIGHS MON L-M70S. LOWS 55-60. HIGHS TUE M-U70S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT MVFR/IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP OR OCCUR ACRS THE AREA UNTIL ARND
15Z-16Z THIS MORNG DUE TO MOIST SSW FLO. VFR CONDITIONS THEN
EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH ONLY AN ISLTD SHOWER OR
TSTM POSSIBLE THIS AFTN/EVENG.

OUTLOOK: IFR STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THU MORNG. BETTER CHC
FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS THU AFTN AND EVENG...AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FM THE W. FRONT PUSHES OFF THE CST DURING FRI...WITH
LAGGING UPR TROF NOT MOVNG OFFSHR UNTIL LATE FRI NGT. SO...THERE
COULD BE LINGERING LWR CIGS AND VSBYS FM SCTD PCPN RIGHT THRU FRI
NGT. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SAT AND SUN...AS HI PRES BLDS INTO
AND OVR THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN SHORT TERM AS WINDS REMAIN S-SW AOB 15KT THRU WED.
SOME CHANNELING UP THE BAY AS WELL AS SEAS APPRCHG 5 FT OUT NR 20 NM
INVOF BUOY 44009 BY WED NITE...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENUF TO GO
WITH A SUSTAINED SCA SO WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES ATTM. SCA`S MAY
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR SEAS OVR NRN CSTL WTRS.

CDFRNT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE THU NITE FRI WITH LOW PRS MOVG N
ALONG IT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR PRS GRDNT BTWN THIS LOW AND STRONG
HIGH PRS BLDG IN FROM THE NW FOR PSBL SCA CNDTNS FRI INTO FRI EVE.

OTW...HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SUB SCA
CNDTNS XPCTD BOTH SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD/DAP
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG

000
FXUS61 KLWX 220801
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
401 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTING OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS UNTIL A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
THROUGH SATURDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE UPPER-LEVELS AND THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH TONIGHT. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A
SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA.

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION WILL
RESULT IN PATCHY FOG ALONG WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS AND
IN SHELTERED VALLEYS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. ANY LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID-MORNING. SUNSHINE AND A
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE MID AND UPPER 80S
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.

THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO HIGH AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY.
NAM/GFS BUFKIT INDICATE AROUND 2000-2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE THIS
AFTERNOON...SIMILAR TO TUESDAY. TERRAIN CIRCULATION AND A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL ACT AS LIFTING MECHANISMS FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS IS ALSO SIMILAR TO TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE CAPPING INVERSION
WILL BE WEAKER THAN TUESDAY DUE TO HEIGHT FALLS AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH TO OUR WEST SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. THEREFORE...A BETTER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. ALTHOUGH
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF TO OUR WEST FOR
LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...THERE IS A THREAT FOR
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP DUE TO THE HIGH INSTABILITY.

CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING DUE TO THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED
TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SLIDE CLOSER TO OUR AREA. PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
FORCING FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS TOWARD MORNING. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S IN DOWNTOWN
WASHINGTON/BALTIMORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LAST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAY FOR
AWHILE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT CROSSES THURSDAY NIGHT
TIMEFRAME. PREFRONTAL LINES/CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS BUFR
SNDG FOR KIAD PROGS A 1.6 INCH PWAT WHICH IS CERTAINLY HIGH...BUT
JUST SHY OF THE 2 STDEV INDICATOR OF FLASH FLOODING. WITH
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE ACTIVITY...ANY FLASH FLOODING WOULD BE
LOCALIZED. DAMAGING WIND THREAT...PARTICULARLY WITH HEATING ON
THURSDAY IS ABLE TO PEAK BEFORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY MOVES THROUGH.

FRIDAY...UPR TROUGH DRIFTS EAST OVER THE AREA WITH BACK EDGE OF
CLOUDS SLOW TO COME IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY NWLY FLOW FRIDAY
CONTINUES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORTWAVE FROM TN VLY ON SUNDAY NOW LOOKS TO EXPAND EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN-CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WOULD
SET OFF SHOWERS. PATTERN IS STALLED INTO MID NEXT WEEK...SO A
PROLONGED CLOUDY/RAINY PERIOD IS POSSIBLE. THIS WOULD RESULT IN
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS MAY RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS AND
AREAS OF FOG...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN TERMINALS. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

ANY LOW CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF BY MID-MORNING AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS
ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS.

THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY. SLY FLOW UNTIL A COLD
FROPA THURSDAY NIGHT. NWLY FLOW WITH GUSTS 25 TO POSSIBLY 30 KT WITH
MID LEVEL CIGS FRIDAY. NWLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH TONIGHT. A
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

SLY FLOW AHEAD OF A LATE THURSDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT. SCA EXPANDED
THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT AN EXTENSION THURSDAY NIGHT FOR PREFRONTAL
SLY FLOW...THEN NWLY FLOW AROUND 25 KT FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT THE FLOW MAY REMAIN JUST WEST OF SOUTH. TIDAL ANOMALIES
WILL LIKELY INCREASE A LITTLE...BUT WITH THE FLOW REMAINING WEST OF
SOUTH THE WATER LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW THRESHOLDS FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING. THE CLOSEST WATER LEVELS WILL COME TO MINOR
FLOODING THRESHOLDS WILL BE DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...THE HIGHER OF THE TWO HIGH TIDES.
TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL DECREASE FRIDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ530-531-539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ535-
     538.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ532-536-540-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ533-534-
     537-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL/BAJ
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...BAJ
AVIATION...BAJ/BJL
MARINE...BAJ/BJL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL

000
FXUS61 KRNK 220737
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...ISSUED BY WFO RALEIGH NC
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
340 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING... FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE ON FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

A COUPLE OF CONCERNS TODAY. THE MAIN CONCERN IS WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN IN THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOWEST
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY OBSERVED IN AREAS THAT HAVE
RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN RECENTLY AND MOSTLY IN THE MOUNTAINS INCLUDING
WATAUGA... ASHE... GRAYSON... INTO SMYTH AND TAZEWELL OF VA.
HOWEVER... GIVEN THE EXPECTED SCATTERED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON... IT APPEARS THAT THE FLOODING THREAT WILL BE
ISOLATED. THEREFORE... OPTED OUT OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THE
CURRENT TIME. THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR INDICATE
AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER OUR REGION THIS
AFTERNOON... PRIMARILY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS SPREADING
NE INTO THE VA PIEDMONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE CHANCE CATEGORY POP FOR THOSE ZONES THIS AFTERNOON.

EVEN MORE PROBLEMATIC MAY BE THE POSSIBLE LINE OF CONVECTION THAT
THE HI-RES MODELS AND EVEN A FEW OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE
PICKING UP ON ACROSS KY/TN THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE MODELS
INDICATE A POTENTIAL MCS THAT MAY HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO SURGE
INTO FAR SW VA... SOUTHERN WVA... AND POSSIBLY NORTHWEST NC BETWEEN
00Z AND 06Z TONIGHT.  IT IS UNCLEAR HOW STRONG OR HOW FAST THIS
CONVECTION WOULD BE AT THE CURRENT TIME. IF THIS APPEARS MORE LIKELY
IN THE MODEL RUNS TODAY... THERE MAY BE A CONCERN WITH FLASH
FLOODING THIS EVENING. WE WILL GO WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LOW END LIKELY
THIS EVENING TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL.

THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE JUST WEST OF
OUR REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE WARM AND HUMID WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. HIGHS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID
80S IN THE SOUTHEAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DIP BACK INTO THE 50S TO MID
60S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

A LEAD SURFACE TROUGH OR CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW MAY AFFECT THE REGION
BEFORE THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT ARRIVES THURSDAY. THIS MAY AFFECT THE
CONVECTIVE CHANCES GREATLY AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT ARRIVES THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE... A PERIOD OF LIKELY POP CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT
THURSDAY... POSSIBLY LASTING INTO THE EARLY EVENING AROUND DANVILLE.
LACK OF HEATING THURSDAY... ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MAY
ALSO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION. THE AREA WITH THE BETTER INSOLATION
COULD BE SOUTHSIDE VA/NW NC PIEDMONT. AT THIS TIME...THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS A 5 PERCENT THREAT OF SVR WX MAINLY OVER THE
PIEDMONT AND TIDEWATER AREAS OF VA/NC.

THE FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA GOING INTO THURSDAY EVENING WITH
LINGERING SHORTWAVE INDUCED SHOWERS ACROSS THE MTNS OVERNIGHT. THE
MAIN SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST BY 12Z FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR
ARRIVING. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S WEST TO
THE LOWER TO MID 70S EAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY:
QUITE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST... WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS HAVING PUSHED TO THE EAST
OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR THIS TIME FRAME. THIS WILL YIELD
GENERALLY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS... WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT TUESDAY

FOR THE LONG RANGE FORECAST...THE MODELS KEEP A TROUGH IN PLACE
EARLY ON AND THEN GO MORE TOWARD A ZONAL TO RIDGE CONFIGURATION BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WE SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AS SFC HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THIS WEEKEND...SO
WEEKEND HOLIDAY PLANS ARE LOOKING GOOD FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AT
LEAST SATURDAY...AS THE LATEST ECMWF SHOWS ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
PUSHING ACROSS BY SUNDAY AND MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE MTN
EMPIRE OF SW VA/INTO THE NC MTNS SUNDAY MORNING.

THE FLOW SWINGS MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY EVENING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY AND TEMPS. MODELS KEEPING MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND WEST...ALTHOUGH A WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT CAN BRING STORMS WORKING EAST INTO THE MTNS. GIVEN WPC
SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST MORE ON THE
LOW CHANCE SIDE...BUT IF THE 12Z ECMWF VERIFIES WE COULD BE GETTING
SOAKED AGAIN MONDAY-WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 202 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE MAIN CONCERN THIS MORNING APPEARS TO BE FOG AROUND AREAS THAT
HAD HEAVY RAINFALL RECENTLY. LATEST DATA SUGGESTS PATCHY FOG WITH
SOME AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG. IFR TO LIFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE EARLIER SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED. ONLY ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING.

A QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE ONSET
OF HEATING AND DECENT MIXING BY MID OR LATE MORNING. THINK ALL SITES
WILL BE VFR BY 15Z/11AM BUT WITH A BETTER SHOT AT AFTERNOON
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ESPCLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY 20Z/4PM. WITH
POTENTIAL TO SEE A BAND OF SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP WESTERN
SLOPES...INCLUDED A PREVAILING -TSRA THREAT AT BOTH KBLF/KLWB
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE LEAVING ELSW VFR W/OUT CONVECTION UNDER
SCTD/BKN 5-6K FT CU FIELDS.

THE REGION STAYS IN A WARM...MOIST AIRMASS THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY.
THIS WILL BRING THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY ALONG WITH AREAS OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG.

HIGH PRESSURE AND BETTER FLYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY
AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...PWB
SHORT TERM...PWB/BSD/WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION.../WFORAH

000
FXUS61 KRNK 220721
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...ISSUED BY WFO RALEIGH NC
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
320 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING... FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE ON FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

A COUPLE OF CONCERNS TODAY. THE MAIN CONCERN IS WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN IN THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOWEST
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY OBSERVED IN AREAS THAT HAVE
RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN RECENTLY AND MOSTLY IN THE MOUNTAINS INCLUDING
WATAUGA... ASHE... GRAYSON... INTO SMYTH AND TAZEWELL OF VA.
HOWEVER... GIVEN THE EXPECTED SCATTERED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON... IT APPEARS THAT THE FLOODING THREAT WILL BE
ISOLATED. THEREFORE... OPTED OUT OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THE
CURRENT TIME. THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR INDICATE
AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER OUR REGION THIS
AFTERNOON... PRIMARILY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS SPREADING
NE INTO THE VA PIEDMONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE CHANCE CATEGORY POP FOR THOSE ZONES THIS AFTERNOON.

EVEN MORE PROBLEMATIC MAY BE THE POSSIBLE LINE OF CONVECTION THAT
THE HI-RES MODELS AND EVEN A FEW OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE
PICKING UP ON ACROSS KY/TN THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE MODELS
INDICATE A POTENTIAL MCS THAT MAY HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO SURGE
INTO FAR SW VA... SOUTHERN WVA... AND POSSIBLY NORTHWEST NC BETWEEN
00Z AND 06Z TONIGHT.  IT IS UNCLEAR HOW STRONG OR HOW FAST THIS
CONVECTION WOULD BE AT THE CURRENT TIME. IF THIS APPEARS MORE LIKELY
IN THE MODEL RUNS TODAY... THERE MAY BE A CONCERN WITH FLASH
FLOODING THIS EVENING. WE WILL GO WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LOW END LIKELY
THIS EVENING TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL.

THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE JUST WEST OF
OUR REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE WARM AND HUMID WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. HIGHS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID
80S IN THE SOUTHEAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DIP BACK INTO THE 50S TO MID
60S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

A LEAD SURFACE TROUGH OR CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW MAY AFFECT THE REGION
BEFORE THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT ARRIVES THURSDAY. THIS MAY AFFECT THE
CONVECTIVE CHANCES GREATLY AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT ARRIVES THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE... A PERIOD OF LIKELY POP CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT
THURSDAY... POSSIBLY LASTING INTO THE EARLY EVENING AROUND DANVILLE.
LACK OF HEATING THURSDAY... ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MAY
ALSO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION. THE AREA WITH THE BETTER INSOLATION
COULD BE SOUTHSIDE VA/NW NC PIEDMONT. AT THIS TIME...THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS A 5 PERCENT THREAT OF SVR WX MAINLY OVER THE
PIEDMONT AND TIDEWATER AREAS OF VA/NC.

THE FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA GOING INTO THURSDAY EVENING WITH
LINGERING SHORTWAVE INDUCED SHOWERS ACROSS THE MTNS OVERNIGHT. THE
MAIN SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST BY 12Z FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR
ARRIVING. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S WEST TO
THE LOWER TO MID 70S EAST.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT TUESDAY

FOR THE LONG RANGE FORECAST...THE MODELS KEEP A TROUGH IN PLACE
EARLY ON AND THEN GO MORE TOWARD A ZONAL TO RIDGE CONFIGURATION BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WE SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AS SFC HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THIS WEEKEND...SO
WEEKEND HOLIDAY PLANS ARE LOOKING GOOD FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AT
LEAST SATURDAY...AS THE LATEST ECMWF SHOWS ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
PUSHING ACROSS BY SUNDAY AND MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE MTN
EMPIRE OF SW VA/INTO THE NC MTNS SUNDAY MORNING.

THE FLOW SWINGS MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY EVENING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY AND TEMPS. MODELS KEEPING MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND WEST...ALTHOUGH A WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT CAN BRING STORMS WORKING EAST INTO THE MTNS. GIVEN WPC
SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST MORE ON THE
LOW CHANCE SIDE...BUT IF THE 12Z ECMWF VERIFIES WE COULD BE GETTING
SOAKED AGAIN MONDAY-WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 202 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE MAIN CONCERN THIS MORNING APPEARS TO BE FOG AROUND AREAS THAT
HAD HEAVY RAINFALL RECENTLY. LATEST DATA SUGGESTS PATCHY FOG WITH
SOME AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG. IFR TO LIFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE EARLIER SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED. ONLY ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING.

A QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE ONSET
OF HEATING AND DECENT MIXING BY MID OR LATE MORNING. THINK ALL SITES
WILL BE VFR BY 15Z/11AM BUT WITH A BETTER SHOT AT AFTERNOON
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ESPCLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY 20Z/4PM. WITH
POTENTIAL TO SEE A BAND OF SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP WESTERN
SLOPES...INCLUDED A PREVAILING -TSRA THREAT AT BOTH KBLF/KLWB
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE LEAVING ELSW VFR W/OUT CONVECTION UNDER
SCTD/BKN 5-6K FT CU FIELDS.

THE REGION STAYS IN A WARM...MOIST AIRMASS THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY.
THIS WILL BRING THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY ALONG WITH AREAS OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG.

HIGH PRESSURE AND BETTER FLYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY
AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...PWB
SHORT TERM...PWB/WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION.../WFORAH

000
FXUS61 KRNK 220606 CCA
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...ISSUED BY WFO RALEIGH NC
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
202 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST AND OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE ON FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 915 PM EDT TUESDAY...

BAND OF WEAKENING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH OLD OUTFLOW BAND TO
THE WEST CONTINUES TO FADE ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES ATTM WHILE NEW
OUTFLOW HAS GIVEN RISE TO ADDED SHRA/TSRA OVER THE WESTERN RIDGES.
LATEST MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS STILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO KEEP STORMS
GOING A WHILE LONGER MOUNTAINS WITH SOME OF THIS COVERAGE PERHAPS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE THE BEST LEFTOVER CAPES
EXIST. APPEARS THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD SLOWLY FADE PER
LOSS OF HEATING BUT LOW WET BULBS AND LOTS OF DRY AIR ALOFT OFF
EVENING SOUNDINGS STILL SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL
THROUGH MIDNIGHT ESPCLY IF STORMS BECOME MORE LINEAR. THEREFORE
NUDGED UP POPS TO LOW LIKELYS FAR WEST OVER THE NEW FEW HOURS
WHILE KEEPING A SCATTERED NATURE FARTHER EAST DESPITE THE LACK OF
COVERAGE OFF THE LATEST HRRR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW LEVELS
ESPCLY EAST SHOW A BIT MORE DRYING THIS EVENING WITH SOME LIGHT
MIXING ONGOING WHICH SHOULD SLOW DOWN FOG FORMATION UNTIL LATE
EXCEPT WHERE RAINFALL HAS ALREADY OCCURRED. HOWEVER MOIST
DEWPOINTS WILL HOLD TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE MUGGY 60S WITH ONLY THE
DEEPER VALLEYS AND SPOTS SEEING SHOWERS PERHAPS FALLING INTO THE
50S LATE.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY IN THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH.
INCREASED POPS FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHEST POPS
ALONG WESTERN MOUNTAINS. THE SWODY2 (DAY TWO CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK)
HAS THE SLIGHT RISK JUST TO OUR WEST ON WEDNESDAY. PLAYED HIGHS
TEMPERATURES COOLER ON WEDNESDAY WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 70S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM EDT TUESDAY...

HAVE A COUPLE DAYS MORE OF HUMID WEATHER BEFORE FRONT SWINGS ACROSS
THURSDAY AND BRINGS A RETURN TO LOWER DEWPOINTS.

UNTIL THEN...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. WEDNESDAY NIGHT A
PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARRIVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
WHICH CREATES AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...MAINLY AFFECTING THE
WRN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BETTER PUSH OF THE FRONT ON
THURSDAY COMBINED WITH BETTER UPPER SUPPORT SHOULD BRING SOME
ENHANCED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. TIMING OF THIS FRONT DOES
VARY SOMEWHAT FROM THE MODELS BUT ENOUGH AGREEMENT TO HAVE HIGH
CHANCE TO LIKLEY IN THE AREA THURSDAY. TIMING ALSO GIVES ISSUES TO
SVR THREAT. ATTM...EXPECT A LINE OF SHRA/TSRA TO BE IN THE MTNS IN
THE MORNING AND MOVING INTO THE PIEDMONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. NOT
SEEING A LOT OF HEATING AS CLOUDS WILL BE GENEROUSLY SPREAD. ONE
AREA WITH THE BETTER INSOLATION COULD BE SOUTHSIDE VA/NW NC
PIEDMONT. AT THIS TIME...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A 5 PERCENT
THREAT OF SVR WX MAINLY OVER THE PIEDMONT AND TIDEWATER AREAS OF
VA/NC.

THE FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA GOING INTO THURSDAY EVENING WITH
LINGERING SHORTWAVE INDUCED SHOWERS ACROSS THE MTNS OVERNIGHT. THE
MAIN SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST BY 12Z FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR
ARRIVING. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S WEST TO
THE LOWER TO MID 70S EAST.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT TUESDAY

FOR THE LONG RANGE FORECAST...THE MODELS KEEP A TROUGH IN PLACE
EARLY ON AND THEN GO MORE TOWARD A ZONAL TO RIDGE CONFIGURATION BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WE SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AS SFC HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THIS WEEKEND...SO
WEEKEND HOLIDAY PLANS ARE LOOKING GOOD FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AT
LEAST SATURDAY...AS THE LATEST ECMWF SHOWS ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
PUSHING ACROSS BY SUNDAY AND MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE MTN
EMPIRE OF SW VA/INTO THE NC MTNS SUNDAY MORNING.

THE FLOW SWINGS MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY EVENING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY AND TEMPS. MODELS KEEPING MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND WEST...ALTHOUGH A WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT CAN BRING STORMS WORKING EAST INTO THE MTNS. GIVEN WPC
SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST MORE ON THE
LOW CHANCE SIDE...BUT IF THE 12Z ECMWF VERIFIES WE COULD BE GETTING
SOAKED AGAIN MONDAY-WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 202 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE MAIN CONCERN THIS MORNING APPEARS TO BE FOG AROUND AREAS THAT
HAD HEAVY RAINFALL RECENTLY. LATEST DATA SUGGESTS PATCHY FOG WITH
SOME AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG. IFR TO LIFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE EARLIER SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED. ONLY ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING.

A QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE ONSET
OF HEATING AND DECENT MIXING BY MID OR LATE MORNING. THINK ALL SITES
WILL BE VFR BY 15Z/11AM BUT WITH A BETTER SHOT AT AFTERNOON
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ESPCLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY 20Z/4PM. WITH
POTENTIAL TO SEE A BAND OF SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP WESTERN
SLOPES...INCLUDED A PREVAILING -TSRA THREAT AT BOTH KBLF/KLWB
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE LEAVING ELSW VFR W/OUT CONVECTION UNDER
SCTD/BKN 5-6K FT CU FIELDS.

THE REGION STAYS IN A WARM...MOIST AIRMASS THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY.
THIS WILL BRING THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY ALONG WITH AREAS OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG.

HIGH PRESSURE AND BETTER FLYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY
AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/JH/KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION.../WFORAH

000
FXUS61 KRNK 220605
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
202 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST AND OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE ON FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 915 PM EDT TUESDAY...

BAND OF WEAKENING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH OLD OUTFLOW BAND TO
THE WEST CONTINUES TO FADE ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES ATTM WHILE NEW
OUTFLOW HAS GIVEN RISE TO ADDED SHRA/TSRA OVER THE WESTERN RIDGES.
LATEST MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS STILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO KEEP STORMS
GOING A WHILE LONGER MOUNTAINS WITH SOME OF THIS COVERAGE PERHAPS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE THE BEST LEFTOVER CAPES
EXIST. APPEARS THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD SLOWLY FADE PER
LOSS OF HEATING BUT LOW WET BULBS AND LOTS OF DRY AIR ALOFT OFF
EVENING SOUNDINGS STILL SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL
THROUGH MIDNIGHT ESPCLY IF STORMS BECOME MORE LINEAR. THEREFORE
NUDGED UP POPS TO LOW LIKELYS FAR WEST OVER THE NEW FEW HOURS
WHILE KEEPING A SCATTERED NATURE FARTHER EAST DESPITE THE LACK OF
COVERAGE OFF THE LATEST HRRR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW LEVELS
ESPCLY EAST SHOW A BIT MORE DRYING THIS EVENING WITH SOME LIGHT
MIXING ONGOING WHICH SHOULD SLOW DOWN FOG FORMATION UNTIL LATE
EXCEPT WHERE RAINFALL HAS ALREADY OCCURRED. HOWEVER MOIST
DEWPOINTS WILL HOLD TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE MUGGY 60S WITH ONLY THE
DEEPER VALLEYS AND SPOTS SEEING SHOWERS PERHAPS FALLING INTO THE
50S LATE.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY IN THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH.
INCREASED POPS FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHEST POPS
ALONG WESTERN MOUNTAINS. THE SWODY2 (DAY TWO CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK)
HAS THE SLIGHT RISK JUST TO OUR WEST ON WEDNESDAY. PLAYED HIGHS
TEMPERATURES COOLER ON WEDNESDAY WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 70S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM EDT TUESDAY...

HAVE A COUPLE DAYS MORE OF HUMID WEATHER BEFORE FRONT SWINGS ACROSS
THURSDAY AND BRINGS A RETURN TO LOWER DEWPOINTS.

UNTIL THEN...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. WEDNESDAY NIGHT A
PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARRIVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
WHICH CREATES AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...MAINLY AFFECTING THE
WRN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BETTER PUSH OF THE FRONT ON
THURSDAY COMBINED WITH BETTER UPPER SUPPORT SHOULD BRING SOME
ENHANCED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. TIMING OF THIS FRONT DOES
VARY SOMEWHAT FROM THE MODELS BUT ENOUGH AGREEMENT TO HAVE HIGH
CHANCE TO LIKLEY IN THE AREA THURSDAY. TIMING ALSO GIVES ISSUES TO
SVR THREAT. ATTM...EXPECT A LINE OF SHRA/TSRA TO BE IN THE MTNS IN
THE MORNING AND MOVING INTO THE PIEDMONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. NOT
SEEING A LOT OF HEATING AS CLOUDS WILL BE GENEROUSLY SPREAD. ONE
AREA WITH THE BETTER INSOLATION COULD BE SOUTHSIDE VA/NW NC
PIEDMONT. AT THIS TIME...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A 5 PERCENT
THREAT OF SVR WX MAINLY OVER THE PIEDMONT AND TIDEWATER AREAS OF
VA/NC.

THE FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA GOING INTO THURSDAY EVENING WITH
LINGERING SHORTWAVE INDUCED SHOWERS ACROSS THE MTNS OVERNIGHT. THE
MAIN SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST BY 12Z FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR
ARRIVING. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S WEST TO
THE LOWER TO MID 70S EAST.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT TUESDAY

FOR THE LONG RANGE FORECAST...THE MODELS KEEP A TROUGH IN PLACE
EARLY ON AND THEN GO MORE TOWARD A ZONAL TO RIDGE CONFIGURATION BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WE SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AS SFC HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THIS WEEKEND...SO
WEEKEND HOLIDAY PLANS ARE LOOKING GOOD FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AT
LEAST SATURDAY...AS THE LATEST ECMWF SHOWS ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
PUSHING ACROSS BY SUNDAY AND MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE MTN
EMPIRE OF SW VA/INTO THE NC MTNS SUNDAY MORNING.

THE FLOW SWINGS MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY EVENING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY AND TEMPS. MODELS KEEPING MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND WEST...ALTHOUGH A WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT CAN BRING STORMS WORKING EAST INTO THE MTNS. GIVEN WPC
SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST MORE ON THE
LOW CHANCE SIDE...BUT IF THE 12Z ECMWF VERIFIES WE COULD BE GETTING
SOAKED AGAIN MONDAY-WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 202 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE MAIN CONCERN THIS MORNING APPEARS TO BE FOG AROUND AREAS THAT
HAD HEAVY RAINFALL RECENTLY. LATEST DATA SUGGESTS PATCHY FOG WITH
SOME AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG. IFR TO LIFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE EARLIER SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED. ONLY ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING.

A QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE ONSET
OF HEATING AND DECENT MIXING BY MID OR LATE MORNING. THINK ALL SITES
WILL BE VFR BY 15Z/11AM BUT WITH A BETTER SHOT AT AFTERNOON
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ESPCLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY 20Z/4PM. WITH
POTENTIAL TO SEE A BAND OF SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP WESTERN
SLOPES...INCLUDED A PREVAILING -TSRA THREAT AT BOTH KBLF/KLWB
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE LEAVING ELSW VFR W/OUT CONVECTION UNDER
SCTD/BKN 5-6K FT CU FIELDS.

THE REGION STAYS IN A WARM...MOIST AIRMASS THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY.
THIS WILL BRING THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY ALONG WITH AREAS OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG.

HIGH PRESSURE AND BETTER FLYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY
AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/JH/KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION.../WFORAH

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220601
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
201 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULL A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHOWERS HAVE COME TO AN END ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC...AND THE ONLY
REMAINING SHOWERS ARE JUST OFF THE VIRGINIA BEACH COAST. THIS AREA
OF SHOWERS IS EXPECT TO DIE OUT IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR FOR MOST OF THE FA
EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH CIRRUS STREAMING DOWN INTO FAR NW COUNTIES
ATTM FROM THE NORTH.

FOR OVERNIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLEARING THIS EVENING WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
STRATUS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...S-SW WINDS AT OR
ABOVE 5 KT WILL PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING. HOWEVER IF ANY
OBSERVATION SITES REPORT VISIBILITIES LOWER THAN 7 STATUTE
MILES...THE OBSCURATION WILL LIKELY BE MORE HAZE THAN FOG/MIST
(VERY SIMILAR TO MONDAY NIGHT). TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SIMILAR PATTERN AS LAST COUPLE DAYS WILL CONTINUE INTO WED. SW
FLOW ALOFT RESUMES AFTER A MID-LVL LO PUSHES OFFSHORE TNGT.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL THEN SLOWLY INCREASE WED INTO WED NGT
AHEAD OF A LO PRES SYSTM PASSING THRU THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DID
INCLUDE A SLGT CHC FOR A SHWR/TSTM WED AFTN/EVENG WITH A WARM AND
MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...HOWEVER MOST AREAS SHUD REMAIN DRY DUE TO
A LACK OF FORCING. OTW...EXPECT A PRTLY CLDY SKY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 80S.

FOR THU...COLD FRNT APPROACHES FROM THE OH VALLEY...AND RAIN
LIKELY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND S/W ENERGY ALOFT. UP TO A HALF
INCH OF PRECIP PSBL WITH THE BEST CHC FOR RAIN IN THE AFTN. HI
TEMPS GENRLY IN THE LO 80S. READINGS WILL BE A BIT COOLER NEAR
THE COAST. THE RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THU NGT/FRI MRNG AS
THE COLD FRNT ADVANCES OFF THE COAST. NOT EXPECTING SKIES TO
COMPLETELY CLR OUT...WITH MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE ALOFT FOLLOWING
THE SFC FROPA.

DRIER CONDS EXPECTED BY FRI AFTN AS FLOW BECOMES NWLY FOR THE
FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL DAYS...AND TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE MID 70S
IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW FRI NIGHT. CLRG
& COOL WITH DECOUPLING WINDS INLAND. CSTL WNDS STAY MIXED DUE TO LOW
PRS SLOWLY PULLING AWAY TO THE NE. LOWS M-U40S FROM I95 ON W...
NEAR 50 INVOF CHES BAY AND L-M50S AT THE COAST.

SUNNY & PLEASANT SAT WITH H5 RIDGE OVRHD. HIGHS IN THE L-M70S XCPT
60S AT THE BEACHES. PT CLDY SAT NITE AS SOME HIGH LVL MSTR OVRSPRDS
RGN. LOWS 50-55. PT SUNNY AND A BIT WRMR SUN. HIGHS M-U70S XCPT
65-70 AT THE BEACHES.

TRICKY FCST ERLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS NOW INCRG MSTR DUE TO COMBO OF
ONSHORE E-SE FLOW AND WRM FRNT APPRCHG FROM THE SW. APPEARS BEST
SPRT FOR POPS WILL BE ACROSS SRN & WRN VA/NRN NC MONDAY & MON
NITE. KEPT SLGHT CHC POPS ON TUE FOR NOW GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE
THIS FAR OUT. HIGHS MON L-M70S. LOWS 55-60. HIGHS TUE M-U70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT MVFR/IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP OR OCCUR ACRS THE AREA UNTIL ARND
15Z-16Z THIS MORNG DUE TO MOIST SSW FLO. VFR CONDITIONS THEN
EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH ONLY AN ISLTD SHOWER OR
TSTM POSSIBLE THIS AFTN/EVENG.

OUTLOOK: IFR STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THU MORNG. BETTER CHC
FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS THU AFTN AND EVENG...AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FM THE W. FRONT PUSHES OFF THE CST DURING FRI...WITH
LAGGING UPR TROF NOT MOVNG OFFSHR UNTIL LATE FRI NGT. SO...THERE
COULD BE LINGERING LWR CIGS AND VSBYS FM SCTD PCPN RIGHT THRU FRI
NGT. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SAT AND SUN...AS HI PRES BLDS INTO
AND OVR THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN SHORT TERM AS WINDS REMAIN S-SW AOB 15KT THRU WED.
SOME CHANNELING UP THE BAY AS WELL AS SEAS APPRCHG 5 FT OUT NR 20 NM
INVOF BUOY 44009 BY WED NITE...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENUF TO GO
WITH A SUSTAINED SCA SO WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES ATTM. SCA`S MAY
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR SEAS OVR NRN CSTL WTRS.

CDFRNT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE THU NITE FRI WITH LOW PRS MOVG N
ALONG IT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR PRS GRDNT BTWN THIS LOW AND STRONG
HIGH PRS BLDG IN FROM THE NW FOR PSBL SCA CNDTNS FRI INTO FRI EVE.

OTW...HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SUB SCA
CNDTNS XPCTD BOTH SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD/MAS
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MPR

000
FXUS61 KLWX 220506
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
106 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY
AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. COOLER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LN OF TSTMS HAS WEAKEN OVER THE ERN PART OF THE STATE.

LGT FOG PSBL AFTR OVERNIGHT...MOST PREVALENT RIGHT B4 SUNRISE AND
THEN QUICKLY BURNING OFF. LOWS IN THE 60S XCPT L70S IN THE
CITIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
CWFA WL BE WARM SECTOR THRU PD...AS SFC HIGH WELL OFF ERN SEABOARD
AIDS SLY FLOW/MOISTURE ADVECTION. THUS AMS WL REMAIN UNSTBL...W/
POPS GNLY INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO DROPPING MID LVL HGTS. WL STILL
HV A DIURNAL TREND TO STORMS. THU LOOKS TO BE THE BETTER DAY IN
TERMS OF TSRA DVLPMNT AS CDFNT/UPR LOW DROPS THRU GRTLKS. HV
RAISED POPS BOTH DAYS AND INTRODUCED LKLYS ON THU.

SPC HAS WRN MD/HIGHLANDS OUTLOOKED IN SLT RISK THU AHD OF THE CD
FNT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CFP THU NGT. AFTR THAT THE NEXT SVRL DAYS LOOKING GOOD AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SHORTWAVE OVER THE TN VLY ON SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE LWX
CWA...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR INCREASED POPS. AS OF NOW EXPECT
SOME HIGH CLOUDS SUNDAY WITH A WARMING TREND STARTING THAT
CONTINUES INTO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDS AT ALL TERMINALS. XPCT AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG TO DVLP
LT TNGT...CONTG INTO THE WED MRNG PUSH BUT DISSIPATING AFTR
SUNRISE. THIS TIME HV LEANED MORE TWD FOG DVLPMNT INLAND SINCE
SKIES WL BE PRTLY CLR SUPPORTING RADL COOLING DOWN TO MOIST
DEWPTS. HWVR LOW CLDS WL BE LURKING JUST E OF DCA/BWI.

DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WED/THUR WITH IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN
THE HEAVIEST ONES. SLY FLOW UNTIL A COLD FROPA THURSDAY NIGHT. NWLY
FLOW WITH CLEAR CONDS SATURDAY. JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
...UPDATE TO ADD SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING
FOR THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NORTH BEACH AND THE LOWER
TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER SOUTH OF COBB ISLAND. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION
WED AFTN AND NGT AS LOPRES MOVES THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND HIPRES
REMAINS PARKED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. SLY RETURN FLOW WILL
INCREASE ACCORDINGLY BETWEEN BOTH SYSTEMS. A SCA GOES IN EFFECT
WED AFTN FOR THE WATERS THAT ARE MOST PRONE TO SLY CHANNELING IN
THE MID CHSPK BAY AND LWR/MID TIDAL POTOMAC RVR. SCA EXPANDS WED
NGT TO INCLUDE ALL OF THE MD CHSPK BAY AS A SLY NOCTURNAL JET
DEVELOPS.

SLY FLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
COMES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SLY CHANNELING TO 20 KT POSSIBLE WED
EVENING...AND THURSDAY. NWLY FLOW TO 20 KT POSSIBLE FRIDAY. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FLOW THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EXPECT POSITIVE TIDAL ANOMALIES TO DEVELOP DURING THE MIDWEEK AS SLY
FLOW STRENGTHENS. CBOFS GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS VERIFIED FAIRLY WELL OF
LATE...FCST WATER LEVELS TO STAY BELOW MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
THRESHOLDS THRU AT LEAST THU MRNG.

COLD FRONT MOVES THRU ERY FRI MRNG. WLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
SHOULD ERASE ANY POSITIVE TIDAL ANOMALIES.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ530-531-539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ532-536-540-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ533-534-
     537-541-543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...LASORSA

000
FXUS61 KRNK 220134
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
934 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST AND OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE ON FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 915 PM EDT TUESDAY...

BAND OF WEAKENING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH OLD OUTFLOW BAND TO
THE WEST CONTINUES TO FADE ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES ATTM WHILE NEW
OUTFLOW HAS GIVEN RISE TO ADDED SHRA/TSRA OVER THE WESTERN RIDGES.
LATEST MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS STILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO KEEP STORMS
GOING A WHILE LONGER MOUNTAINS WITH SOME OF THIS COVERAGE PERHAPS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE THE BEST LEFTOVER CAPES
EXIST. APPEARS THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD SLOWLY FADE PER
LOSS OF HEATING BUT LOW WET BULBS AND LOTS OF DRY AIR ALOFT OFF
EVENING SOUNDINGS STILL SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL
THROUGH MIDNIGHT ESPCLY IF STORMS BECOME MORE LINEAR. THEREFORE
NUDGED UP POPS TO LOW LIKELYS FAR WEST OVER THE NEW FEW HOURS
WHILE KEEPING A SCATTERED NATURE FARTHER EAST DESPITE THE LACK OF
COVERAGE OFF THE LATEST HRRR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW LEVELS
ESPCLY EAST SHOW A BIT MORE DRYING THIS EVENING WITH SOME LIGHT
MIXING ONGOING WHICH SHOULD SLOW DOWN FOG FORMATION UNTIL LATE
EXCEPT WHERE RAINFALL HAS ALREADY OCCURRED. HOWEVER MOIST
DEWPOINTS WILL HOLD TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE MUGGY 60S WITH ONLY THE
DEEPER VALLEYS AND SPOTS SEEING SHOWERS PERHAPS FALLING INTO THE
50S LATE.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY IN THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH.
INCREASED POPS FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHEST POPS
ALONG WESTERN MOUNTAINS. THE SWODY2 (DAY TWO CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK)
HAS THE SLIGHT RISK JUST TO OUR WEST ON WEDNESDAY. PLAYED HIGHS
TEMPERATURES COOLER ON WEDNESDAY WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 70S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM EDT TUESDAY...

HAVE A COUPLE DAYS MORE OF HUMID WEATHER BEFORE FRONT SWINGS ACROSS
THURSDAY AND BRINGS A RETURN TO LOWER DEWPOINTS.

UNTIL THEN...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. WEDNESDAY NIGHT A
PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARRIVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
WHICH CREATES AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...MAINLY AFFECTING THE
WRN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BETTER PUSH OF THE FRONT ON
THURSDAY COMBINED WITH BETTER UPPER SUPPORT SHOULD BRING SOME
ENHANCED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. TIMING OF THIS FRONT DOES
VARY SOMEWHAT FROM THE MODELS BUT ENOUGH AGREEMENT TO HAVE HIGH
CHANCE TO LIKLEY IN THE AREA THURSDAY. TIMING ALSO GIVES ISSUES TO
SVR THREAT. ATTM...EXPECT A LINE OF SHRA/TSRA TO BE IN THE MTNS IN
THE MORNING AND MOVING INTO THE PIEDMONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. NOT
SEEING A LOT OF HEATING AS CLOUDS WILL BE GENEROUSLY SPREAD. ONE
AREA WITH THE BETTER INSOLATION COULD BE SOUTHSIDE VA/NW NC
PIEDMONT. AT THIS TIME...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A 5 PERCENT
THREAT OF SVR WX MAINLY OVER THE PIEDMONT AND TIDEWATER AREAS OF
VA/NC.

THE FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA GOING INTO THURSDAY EVENING WITH
LINGERING SHORTWAVE INDUCED SHOWERS ACROSS THE MTNS OVERNIGHT. THE
MAIN SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST BY 12Z FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR
ARRIVING. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S WEST TO
THE LOWER TO MID 70S EAST.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT TUESDAY

FOR THE LONG RANGE FORECAST...THE MODELS KEEP A TROUGH IN PLACE
EARLY ON AND THEN GO MORE TOWARD A ZONAL TO RIDGE CONFIGURATION BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WE SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AS SFC HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THIS WEEKEND...SO
WEEKEND HOLIDAY PLANS ARE LOOKING GOOD FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AT
LEAST SATURDAY...AS THE LATEST ECMWF SHOWS ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
PUSHING ACROSS BY SUNDAY AND MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE MTN
EMPIRE OF SW VA/INTO THE NC MTNS SUNDAY MORNING.

THE FLOW SWINGS MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY EVENING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY AND TEMPS. MODELS KEEPING MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND WEST...ALTHOUGH A WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT CAN BRING STORMS WORKING EAST INTO THE MTNS. GIVEN WPC
SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST MORE ON THE
LOW CHANCE SIDE...BUT IF THE 12Z ECMWF VERIFIES WE COULD BE GETTING
SOAKED AGAIN MONDAY-WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM EDT TUESDAY...

CONVECTION REMAINS QUITE ISOLATED ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING
WITH MOST COVERAGE OVER NW NORTH CAROLINA WELL SW OF THE TAF
SITES. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WITH THE COMPLEX OF SHRA/TSRA
ASSOCIATED WITH AN OLD OUTFLOW HEADING NE OUT OF TN/KY DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE BRINGS SOME OF THIS AS
FAR EAST AS THE BLUE RIDGE AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE IT FADES. THUS
MAY HAVE A STORM OR SHRA AFFECT KBLF/KLWB DURING THE LATE EVENING
     WITH A BAND/CLUSTER OF SHRA/TSRA NEAR KBCB/KROA TOWARD
MIDNIGHT PENDING HOW FAR EAST THE PRECIP MAKES IT AFTER LOSS OF
HEATING AND LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WILL COVER
MAINLY WITH VCTS/VCSH FOR NOW AND AMEND IF STORMS DO INDEED GET
CLOSER.

OTHER CONCERN AGAIN WITH FOG LATE ESPCLY NEAR WHERE ANY RAINFALL
OCCURS GIVEN SUCH A MUGGY ENVIRONMENT. LATEST FORECAST RAOB
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST QUITE A BIT OF PATCHY FOG BUT LIKELY NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS THIS MORNING EXCEPT IN SPOTS WHERE A SHRA PASSES.
REGARDLESS OF SHRA COVERAGE...APPEARS KLWB STILL HAS THE BEST
CHANCE TO DROP TO LIFR IN FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A PERIOD OF
IFR ELSW EXCLUDING KBLF/KROA WHERE ONLY BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE AT
THIS TIME.

EXPECT A QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE
ONSET OF HEATING AND DECENT MIXING BY MID OR LATE MORNING. THINK
ALL SITES WILL BE VFR BY 15Z/11AM BUT WITH A BETTER SHOT AT
AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPING ESPCLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY
20Z/4PM. WITH POTENTIAL TO SEE A BAND OF SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP WESTERN
SLOPES...INCLUDED A PREVAILING -TSRA THREAT AT BOTH KBLF/KLWB
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE LEAVING ELSW VFR W/OUT CONVECTION UNDER
SCTD/BKN 5-6K FT CU FIELDS.

THE REGION STAYS IN A WARM...MOIST AIRMASS THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY.
THIS WILL BRING THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY ALONG WITH AREAS OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG.

HIGH PRESSURE AND BETTER FLYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY
AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/JH/KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/JH/KK

000
FXUS61 KLWX 220021
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
821 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY
AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. COOLER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

LN OF TSTMS PRNTLY ENTERING WRN W.V. WL LKLY WEAKEN B4 GETTING TO
THE ERN PART OF THE STATE.

LGT FOG PSBL AFTR MDNGT...MOST PREVALENT RIGHT B4 SUNRISE AND THEN
QUICKLY BURNING OFF. LOWS IN THE 60S XCPT L70S IN THE CITIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

CWFA WL BE WARM SECTOR THRU PD...AS SFC HIGH WELL OFF ERN SEABOARD
AIDS SLY FLOW/MOISTURE ADVECTION. THUS AMS WL REMAIN UNSTBL...W/
POPS GNLY INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO DROPPING MID LVL HGTS. WL STILL
HV A DIURNAL TREND TO STORMS. THU LOOKS TO BE THE BETTER DAY IN
TERMS OF TSRA DVLPMNT AS CDFNT/UPR LOW DROPS THRU GRTLKS. HV
RAISED POPS BOTH DAYS AND INTRODUCED LKLYS ON THU.

SPC HAS WRN MD/HIGHLANDS OUTLOOKED IN SLT RISK THU AHD OF THE CD
FNT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CFP THU NGT. AFTR THAT THE NEXT SVRL DAYS LOOKING GOOD AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SHORTWAVE OVER THE TN VLY ON SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE LWX
CWA...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR INCREASED POPS. AS OF NOW EXPECT
SOME HIGH CLOUDS SUNDAY WITH A WARMING TREND STARTING THAT
CONTINUES INTO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDS AT ALL TERMINALS. XPCT AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG TO DVLP
LT TNGT...CONTG INTO THE WED MRNG PUSH BUT DISSIPATING AFTR
SUNRISE. THIS TIME HV LEANED MORE TWD FOG DVLPMNT INLAND SINCE
SKIES WL BE PRTLY CLR SUPPORTING RADL COOLING DOWN TO MOIST
DEWPTS. HWVR LOW CLDS WL BE LURKING JUST E OF DCA/BWI.

DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WED/THUR WITH IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN
THE HEAVIEST ONES. SLY FLOW UNTIL A COLD FROPA THURSDAY NIGHT. NWLY
FLOW WITH CLEAR CONDS SATURDAY. JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION WED AFTN AND
NGT AS LOPRES MOVES THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND HIPRES REMAINS PARKED
OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. SLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE ACCORDINGLY
BETWEEN BOTH SYSTEMS. A SCA GOES IN EFFECT WED AFTN FOR THE WATERS
THAT ARE MOST PRONE TO SLY CHANNELING IN THE MID CHSPK BAY AND
LWR/MID TIDAL POTOMAC RVR. SCA EXPANDS WED NGT TO INCLUDE ALL OF THE
MD CHSPK BAY AS A SLY NOCTURNAL JET DEVELOPS.

SLY FLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
COMES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SLY CHANNELING TO 20 KT POSSIBLE WED
EVENING...AND THURSDAY. NWLY FLOW TO 20 KT POSSIBLE FRIDAY. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FLOW THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EXPECT POSITIVE TIDAL ANOMALIES TO DEVELOP DURING THE MIDWEEK AS SLY
FLOW STRENGTHENS. CBOFS GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS VERIFIED FAIRLY WELL OF
LATE...FCST WATER LEVELS TO STAY BELOW MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
THRESHOLDS THRU AT LEAST THU MRNG.

COLD FRONT MOVES THRU ERY FRI MRNG. WLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
SHOULD ERASE ANY POSITIVE TIDAL ANOMALIES.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ530-531-539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ532>534-536-537-540>543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220019
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
819 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULL A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS HAVE COME TO AN END ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC...AND THE ONLY
REMAINING SHOWERS ARE JUST OFF THE VIRGINIA BEACH COAST. THIS AREA
OF SHOWERS IS EXPECT TO DIE OUT IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR FOR MOST OF THE FA
EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH CIRRUS STREAMING DOWN INTO FAR NW COUNTIES
ATTM FROM THE NORTH.

FOR OVERNIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLEARING THIS EVENING WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
STRATUS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...S-SW WINDS AT OR
ABOVE 5 KT WILL PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING. HOWEVER IF ANY
OBSERVATION SITES REPORT VISIBILITIES LOWER THAN 7 STATUTE
MILES...THE OBSCURATION WILL LIKELY BE MORE HAZE THAN FOG/MIST
(VERY SIMILAR TO MONDAY NIGHT). TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SIMILAR PATTERN AS LAST COUPLE DAYS WILL CONTINUE INTO WED. SW
FLOW ALOFT RESUMES AFTER A MID-LVL LO PUSHES OFFSHORE TNGT.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL THEN SLOWLY INCREASE WED INTO WED NGT
AHEAD OF A LO PRES SYSTM PASSING THRU THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DID
INCLUDE A SLGT CHC FOR A SHWR/TSTM WED AFTN/EVENG WITH A WARM AND
MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...HOWEVER MOST AREAS SHUD REMAIN DRY DUE TO
A LACK OF FORCING. OTW...EXPECT A PRTLY CLDY SKY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 80S.

FOR THU...COLD FRNT APPROACHES FROM THE OH VALLEY...AND RAIN
LIKELY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND S/W ENERGY ALOFT. UP TO A HALF
INCH OF PRECIP PSBL WITH THE BEST CHC FOR RAIN IN THE AFTN. HI
TEMPS GENRLY IN THE LO 80S. READINGS WILL BE A BIT COOLER NEAR
THE COAST. THE RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THU NGT/FRI MRNG AS
THE COLD FRNT ADVANCES OFF THE COAST. NOT EXPECTING SKIES TO
COMPLETELY CLR OUT...WITH MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE ALOFT FOLLOWING
THE SFC FROPA.

DRIER CONDS EXPECTED BY FRI AFTN AS FLOW BECOMES NWLY FOR THE
FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL DAYS...AND TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE MID 70S
IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW FRI NIGHT. CLRG
& COOL WITH DECOUPLING WINDS INLAND. CSTL WNDS STAY MIXED DUE TO LOW
PRS SLOWLY PULLING AWAY TO THE NE. LOWS M-U40S FROM I95 ON W...
NEAR 50 INVOF CHES BAY AND L-M50S AT THE COAST.

SUNNY & PLEASANT SAT WITH H5 RIDGE OVRHD. HIGHS IN THE L-M70S XCPT
60S AT THE BEACHES. PT CLDY SAT NITE AS SOME HIGH LVL MSTR OVRSPRDS
RGN. LOWS 50-55. PT SUNNY AND A BIT WRMR SUN. HIGHS M-U70S XCPT
65-70 AT THE BEACHES.

TRICKY FCST ERLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS NOW INCRG MSTR DUE TO COMBO OF
ONSHORE E-SE FLOW AND WRM FRNT APPRCHG FROM THE SW. APPEARS BEST
SPRT FOR POPS WILL BE ACROSS SRN & WRN VA/NRN NC MONDAY & MON
NITE. KEPT SLGHT CHC POPS ON TUE FOR NOW GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE
THIS FAR OUT. HIGHS MON L-M70S. LOWS 55-60. HIGHS TUE M-U70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ENDED ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC THIS
EVENING. NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THE FORMATION OF IFR STRATUS
OVERNIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS CIGS BECOMING IFR AT ALL TAF SITES
EXCEPT KECG BETWEEN 06-08Z WED MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH
14-15Z. WILL MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS FOR KECG OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS
WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE WED AFTN.

OUTLOOK: IFR STRATUS WILL BE PSBL AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING. MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTN AND EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE WEATHER IMPROVES LATE FRIDAY AND BEYOND
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN SHORT TERM AS WINDS REMAIN S-SW AOB 15KT THRU WED.
SOME CHANNELING UP THE BAY AS WELL AS SEAS APPRCHG 5 FT OUT NR 20 NM
INVOF BUOY 44009 BY WED NITE...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENUF TO GO
WITH A SUSTAINED SCA SO WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES ATTM. SCA`S MAY
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR SEAS OVR NRN CSTL WTRS.

CDFRNT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE THU NITE FRI WITH LOW PRS MOVG N
ALONG IT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR PRS GRDNT BTWN THIS LOW AND STRONG
HIGH PRS BLDG IN FROM THE NW FOR PSBL SCA CNDTNS FRI INTO FRI EVE.

OTW...HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SUB SCA
CNDTNS XPCTD BOTH SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD/MAS
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...JDM/LSA
MARINE...MPR

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220012
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
812 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULL A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS HAVE COME TO AN END ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC...AND THE ONLY
REMAINING SHOWERS ARE JUST OFF THE VIRGINIA BEACH COAST. THIS AREA
OF SHOWERS IS EXPECT TO DIE OUT IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR FOR MOST OF THE FA
EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH CIRRUS STREAMING DOWN INTO FAR NW COUNTIES
ATTM FROM THE NORTH.

FOR OVERNIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLEARING THIS EVENING WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
STRATUS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...S-SW WINDS AT OR
ABOVE 5 KT WILL PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING. HOWEVER IF ANY
OBSERVATION SITES REPORT VISIBILITIES LOWER THAN 7 STATUTE
MILES...THE OBSCURATION WILL LIKELY BE MORE HAZE THAN FOG/MIST
(VERY SIMILAR TO MONDAY NIGHT). TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SIMILAR PATTERN AS LAST COUPLE DAYS WILL CONTINUE INTO WED. SW
FLOW ALOFT RESUMES AFTER A MID-LVL LO PUSHES OFFSHORE TNGT.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL THEN SLOWLY INCREASE WED INTO WED NGT
AHEAD OF A LO PRES SYSTM PASSING THRU THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DID
INCLUDE A SLGT CHC FOR A SHWR/TSTM WED AFTN/EVENG WITH A WARM AND
MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...HOWEVER MOST AREAS SHUD REMAIN DRY DUE TO
A LACK OF FORCING. OTW...EXPECT A PRTLY CLDY SKY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 80S.

FOR THU...COLD FRNT APPROACHES FROM THE OH VALLEY...AND RAIN
LIKELY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND S/W ENERGY ALOFT. UP TO A HALF
INCH OF PRECIP PSBL WITH THE BEST CHC FOR RAIN IN THE AFTN. HI
TEMPS GENRLY IN THE LO 80S. READINGS WILL BE A BIT COOLER NEAR
THE COAST. THE RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THU NGT/FRI MRNG AS
THE COLD FRNT ADVANCES OFF THE COAST. NOT EXPECTING SKIES TO
COMPLETELY CLR OUT...WITH MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE ALOFT FOLLOWING
THE SFC FROPA.

DRIER CONDS EXPECTED BY FRI AFTN AS FLOW BECOMES NWLY FOR THE
FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL DAYS...AND TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE MID 70S
IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW FRI NIGHT. CLRG
& COOL WITH DECOUPLING WINDS INLAND. CSTL WNDS STAY MIXED DUE TO LOW
PRS SLOWLY PULLING AWAY TO THE NE. LOWS M-U40S FROM I95 ON W...
NEAR 50 INVOF CHES BAY AND L-M50S AT THE COAST.

SUNNY & PLEASANT SAT WITH H5 RIDGE OVRHD. HIGHS IN THE L-M70S XCPT
60S AT THE BEACHES. PT CLDY SAT NITE AS SOME HIGH LVL MSTR OVRSPRDS
RGN. LOWS 50-55. PT SUNNY AND A BIT WRMR SUN. HIGHS M-U70S XCPT
65-70 AT THE BEACHES.

TRICKY FCST ERLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS NOW INCRG MSTR DUE TO COMBO OF
ONSHORE E-SE FLOW AND WRM FRNT APPRCHG FROM THE SW. APPEARS BEST
SPRT FOR POPS WILL BE ACROSS SRN & WRN VA/NRN NC MONDAY & MON
NITE. KEPT SLGHT CHC POPS ON TUE FOR NOW GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE
THIS FAR OUT. HIGHS MON L-M70S. LOWS 55-60. HIGHS TUE M-U70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE TAF PERIOD. WIDELY SCT CONVECTION
WILL BE PSBL OVER SE PORTIONS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. INCLUDED TEMPO
GROUP FOR TSTMS AT ECG THROUGH 20Z. ALL OF THE SITES WERE VARYING
BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR AND THIS WILL BE THE TREND FOR AT LEAST THE
FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD AND LIKELY AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IFR STRATUS IS INDICATED BY MOS AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS AT
MOST OF THE TAF SITES FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING ROUGHLY FROM 08 TO 14Z.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK: ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE PSBL LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTN AND EVENING. IFR STRATUS WILL BE PSBL AGAIN THURSDAY
MORNING. MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTN AND
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE WEATHER IMPROVES FRIDAY AND
BEYOND FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN SHORT TERM AS WINDS REMAIN S-SW AOB 15KT THRU WED.
SOME CHANNELING UP THE BAY AS WELL AS SEAS APPRCHG 5 FT OUT NR 20 NM
INVOF BUOY 44009 BY WED NITE...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENUF TO GO
WITH A SUSTAINED SCA SO WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES ATTM. SCA`S MAY
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR SEAS OVR NRN CSTL WTRS.

CDFRNT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE THU NITE FRI WITH LOW PRS MOVG N
ALONG IT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR PRS GRDNT BTWN THIS LOW AND STRONG
HIGH PRS BLDG IN FROM THE NW FOR PSBL SCA CNDTNS FRI INTO FRI EVE.

OTW...HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SUB SCA
CNDTNS XPCTD BOTH SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD/MAS
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MPR

000
FXUS61 KRNK 212301
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
701 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST AND OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE ON FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT TUESDAY...

SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED SCATTERED CU DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. REGIONAL WSR-88D LOOP
DISPLAYED ISOLATED CONVECTION FORMING JUST SOUTHEAST OF CWA ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA IN THE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR.  RNK WRF ARW AND RUC INDICATED THAT THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. THE NAM AND GFS FOCUS ON CONVECTION
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. INCREASED POPS
THIS EVENING IN THE NORTHWEST ALLOWING FOR MENTION OF LIKELY FOR
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA WITH BEST SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND MID
LVL OMEGA FIELDS. SOME OF THE STORMS TONIGHT COULD CONTAIN HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. WITH THE LOSS OF SOLAR
HEATING...CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AND TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. WENT
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO MILD ADJMAV WITH VALUES FROM THE MID
50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST. WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. INCREASED POPS FROM
WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHEST POPS ALONG WESTERN
MOUNTAINS. THE SWODY2 (DAY TWO CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK) HAS THE SLIGHT
RISK JUST TO OUR WEST ON WEDNESDAY. PLAYED HIGHS TEMPERATURES COOLER
ON WEDNESDAY WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
THE MID 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM EDT TUESDAY...

HAVE A COUPLE DAYS MORE OF HUMID WEATHER BEFORE FRONT SWINGS ACROSS
THURSDAY AND BRINGS A RETURN TO LOWER DEWPOINTS.

UNTIL THEN...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. WEDNESDAY NIGHT A
PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARRIVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
WHICH CREATES AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...MAINLY AFFECTING THE
WRN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BETTER PUSH OF THE FRONT ON
THURSDAY COMBINED WITH BETTER UPPER SUPPORT SHOULD BRING SOME
ENHANCED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. TIMING OF THIS FRONT DOES
VARY SOMEWHAT FROM THE MODELS BUT ENOUGH AGREEMENT TO HAVE HIGH
CHANCE TO LIKLEY IN THE AREA THURSDAY. TIMING ALSO GIVES ISSUES TO
SVR THREAT. ATTM...EXPECT A LINE OF SHRA/TSRA TO BE IN THE MTNS IN
THE MORNING AND MOVING INTO THE PIEDMONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. NOT
SEEING A LOT OF HEATING AS CLOUDS WILL BE GENEROUSLY SPREAD. ONE
AREA WITH THE BETTER INSOLATION COULD BE SOUTHSIDE VA/NW NC
PIEDMONT. AT THIS TIME...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A 5 PERCENT
THREAT OF SVR WX MAINLY OVER THE PIEDMONT AND TIDEWATER AREAS OF
VA/NC.

THE FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA GOING INTO THURSDAY EVENING WITH
LINGERING SHORTWAVE INDUCED SHOWERS ACROSS THE MTNS OVERNIGHT. THE
MAIN SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST BY 12Z FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR
ARRIVING. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S WEST TO
THE LOWER TO MID 70S EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT TUESDAY

FOR THE LONG RANGE FORECAST...THE MODELS KEEP A TROUGH IN PLACE
EARLY ON AND THEN GO MORE TOWARD A ZONAL TO RIDGE CONFIGURATION BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WE SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AS SFC HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THIS WEEKEND...SO
WEEKEND HOLIDAY PLANS ARE LOOKING GOOD FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AT
LEAST SATURDAY...AS THE LATEST ECMWF SHOWS ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
PUSHING ACROSS BY SUNDAY AND MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE MTN
EMPIRE OF SW VA/INTO THE NC MTNS SUNDAY MORNING.

THE FLOW SWINGS MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY EVENING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY AND TEMPS. MODELS KEEPING MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND WEST...ALTHOUGH A WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT CAN BRING STORMS WORKING EAST INTO THE MTNS. GIVEN WPC
SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST MORE ON THE
LOW CHANCE SIDE...BUT IF THE 12Z ECMWF VERIFIES WE COULD BE GETTING
SOAKED AGAIN MONDAY-WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM EDT TUESDAY...

CONVECTION REMAINS QUITE ISOLATED ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING
WITH MOST COVERAGE OVER NW NORTH CAROLINA WELL SW OF THE TAF
SITES. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WITH THE COMPLEX OF SHRA/TSRA
ASSOCIATED WITH AN OLD OUTFLOW HEADING NE OUT OF TN/KY DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE BRINGS SOME OF THIS AS
FAR EAST AS THE BLUE RIDGE AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE IT FADES. THUS
MAY HAVE A STORM OR SHRA AFFECT KBLF/KLWB DURING THE LATE EVENING
...WITH A BAND/CLUSTER OF SHRA/TSRA NEAR KBCB/KROA TOWARD
MIDNIGHT PENDING HOW FAR EAST THE PRECIP MAKES IT AFTER LOSS OF
HEATING AND LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WILL COVER
MAINLY WITH VCTS/VCSH FOR NOW AND AMEND IF STORMS DO INDEED GET
CLOSER.

OTHER CONCERN AGAIN WITH FOG LATE ESPCLY NEAR WHERE ANY RAINFALL
OCCURS GIVEN SUCH A MUGGY ENVIRONMENT. LATEST FORECAST RAOB
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST QUITE A BIT OF PATCHY FOG BUT LIKELY NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS THIS MORNING EXCEPT IN SPOTS WHERE A SHRA PASSES.
REGARDLESS OF SHRA COVERAGE...APPEARS KLWB STILL HAS THE BEST
CHANCE TO DROP TO LIFR IN FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A PERIOD OF
IFR ELSW EXCLUDING KBLF/KROA WHERE ONLY BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE AT
THIS TIME.

EXPECT A QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE
ONSET OF HEATING AND DECENT MIXING BY MID OR LATE MORNING. THINK
ALL SITES WILL BE VFR BY 15Z/11AM BUT WITH A BETTER SHOT AT
AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPING ESPCLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY
20Z/4PM. WITH POTENTIAL TO SEE A BAND OF SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP WESTERN
SLOPES...INCLUDED A PREVAILING -TSRA THREAT AT BOTH KBLF/KLWB
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE LEAVING ELSW VFR W/OUT CONVECTION UNDER
SCTD/BKN 5-6K FT CU FIELDS.

THE REGION STAYS IN A WARM...MOIST AIRMASS THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY.
THIS WILL BRING THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY ALONG WITH AREAS OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG.

HIGH PRESSURE AND BETTER FLYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY
AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/JH/KK

000
FXUS61 KLWX 212137
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
537 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...

OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY
AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. COOLER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISOLD TSTMS PSBL OVR THE MTNS THRU MID EVE. THESE MAY PRODUCE
BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINS. UPR LVL WIND FIELD IS VERY LGT.

LGT FOG PSBL AFTR MDNGT...MOST PREVALENT RIGHT B4 SUNRISE AND THEN
QUICKLY BURNING OFF. LOWS IN THE 60S XCPT L70S IN THE CITIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

CWFA WL BE WARM SECTOR THRU PD...AS SFC HIGH WELL OFF ERN SEABOARD
AIDS SLY FLOW/MOISTURE ADVECTION. THUS AMS WL REMAIN UNSTBL...W/
POPS GNLY INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO DROPPING MID LVL HGTS. WL STILL
HV A DIURNAL TREND TO STORMS. THU LOOKS TO BE THE BETTER DAY IN
TERMS OF TSRA DVLPMNT AS CDFNT/UPR LOW DROPS THRU GRTLKS. HV
RAISED POPS BOTH DAYS AND INTRODUCED LKLYS ON THU.

SPC HAS WRN MD/HIGHLANDS OUTLOOKED IN SLT RISK THU AHD OF THE CD
FNT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

CFP THU NGT. AFTR THAT THE NEXT SVRL DAYS LOOKING GOOD AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SHORTWAVE OVER THE TN VLY ON SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE LWX
CWA...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR INCREASED POPS. AS OF NOW EXPECT
SOME HIGH CLOUDS SUNDAY WITH A WARMING TREND STARTING THAT
CONTINUES INTO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

VFR CONDS AT ALL TERMINALS. XPCT AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG TO DVLP
LT TNGT...CONTG INTO THE WED MRNG PUSH BUT DISSIPATING AFTR
SUNRISE. THIS TIME HV LEANED MORE TWD FOG DVLPMNT INLAND SINCE
SKIES WL BE PRTLY CLR SUPPORTING RADL COOLING DOWN TO MOIST
DEWPTS. HWVR LOW CLDS WL BE LURKING JUST E OF DCA/BWI.

DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WED/THUR WITH IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN
THE HEAVIEST ONES. SLY FLOW UNTIL A COLD FROPA THURSDAY NIGHT. NWLY
FLOW WITH CLEAR CONDS SATURDAY. JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION WED AFTN AND
NGT AS LOPRES MOVES THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND HIPRES REMAINS PARKED
OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. SLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE ACCORDINGLY
BETWEEN BOTH SYSTEMS. A SCA GOES IN EFFECT WED AFTN FOR THE WATERS
THAT ARE MOST PRONE TO SLY CHANNELING IN THE MID CHSPK BAY AND
LWR/MID TIDAL POTOMAC RVR. SCA EXPANDS WED NGT TO INCLUDE ALL OF THE
MD CHSPK BAY AS A SLY NOCTURNAL JET DEVELOPS.

SLY FLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
COMES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SLY CHANNELING TO 20 KT POSSIBLE WED
EVENING...AND THURSDAY. NWLY FLOW TO 20 KT POSSIBLE FRIDAY. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FLOW THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

EXPECT POSITIVE TIDAL ANOMALIES TO DEVELOP DURING THE MIDWEEK AS SLY
FLOW STRENGTHENS. CBOFS GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS VERIFIED FAIRLY WELL OF
LATE...FCST WATER LEVELS TO STAY BELOW MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
THRESHOLDS THRU AT LEAST THU MRNG.

COLD FRONT MOVES THRU ERY FRI MRNG. WLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
SHOULD ERASE ANY POSITIVE TIDAL ANOMALIES.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ530-531-539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ532>534-536-537-540>543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 211947
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
347 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULL A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CHC FOR SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL REMAIN ESPECIALLY OVER SE AREAS THRU
ERLY THIS EVENG. MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN WITH PWATS ~1.9"
AND WEAK STEERING FLOW ALOFT. NOT EXPECTING ANY SVR WX DUE TO MARGINAL
MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...VERY WEAK WIND SHEAR AND FORCING. WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND MAIN MOISTURE AXIS PULLING
OFFSHORE...ANY SHWRS WILL SUBSIDE THRU THE EVENG HRS...LEAVING DRY
CONDS FOR THE OVRNGT HRS. TEMPS REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TNGT AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS...LOWS IN THE MID TO UPR 60S UNDER A PRTLY
CLDY SKY. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE BUT MORE IN THE WAY OF LO STRATUS
IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SIMILAR PATTERN AS LAST COUPLE DAYS WILL CONTINUE INTO WED. SW
FLOW ALOFT RESUMES AFTER A MID-LVL LO PUSHES OFFSHORE TNGT.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL THEN SLOWLY INCREASE WED INTO WED NGT
AHEAD OF A LO PRES SYSTM PASSING THRU THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DID
INCLUDE A SLGT CHC FOR A SHWR/TSTM WED AFTN/EVENG WITH A WARM AND
MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...HOWEVER MOST AREAS SHUD REMAIN DRY DUE TO
A LACK OF FORCING. OTW...EXPECT A PRTLY CLDY SKY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 80S.

FOR THU...COLD FRNT APPROACHES FROM THE OH VALLEY...AND RAIN
LIKELY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND S/W ENERGY ALOFT. UP TO A HALF
INCH OF PRECIP PSBL WITH THE BEST CHC FOR RAIN IN THE AFTN. HI
TEMPS GENRLY IN THE LO 80S. READINGS WILL BE A BIT COOLER NEAR
THE COAST. THE RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THU NGT/FRI MRNG AS
THE COLD FRNT ADVANCES OFF THE COAST. NOT EXPECTING SKIES TO
COMPLETELY CLR OUT...WITH MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE ALOFT FOLLOWING
THE SFC FROPA.

DRIER CONDS EXPECTED BY FRI AFTN AS FLOW BECOMES NWRLY FOR THE
FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL DAYS...AND TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE MID 70S
IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW FRI NIGHT. CLRG
& COOL WITH DECOUPLING WINDS INLAND. CSTL WNDS STAY MIXED DUE TO LOW
PRS SLOWLY PULLING AWAY TO THE NE. LOWS M-U40S FROM I95 ON W...NR 50
IVOF CHES BAY AND L-M50S AT THE COAST.

SUNNY & PLEASANT SAT WITH H5 RIDGE OVRHD. HIGHS IN THE L-M70S XCPT
60S AT THE BEACHES. PT CLDY SAT NITE AS SOME HIGH LVL MSTR OVRSPRDS
RGN. LOWS 50-55. PT SUNNY AND A BIT WRMR SUN. HIGHS M-U70S XCPT
65-70 AT THE BEACHES.

TRICKY FCST ERLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS NOW INCRG MSTR DUE TO COMBO OF
ONSHORE E-SE FLOW AND WRM FRNT APPRCHG FROM THE SW. APPEARS BEST
SPRT FOR POPS WILL BE ACROSS SRN & WRN VA / NRN NC MONDAY & MON
NITE. KEPT SLGHT CHC POPS ON TUE FOR NOW GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE
THIS FAR OUT. HIGHS MON L-M70S. LOWS 55-60. HIGHS TUE M-U70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE TAF PERIOD. WIDELY SCT CONVECTION
WILL BE PSBL OVER SE PORTIONS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. INCLUDED TEMPO
GROUP FOR TSTMS AT ECG THROUGH 20Z. ALL OF THE SITES WERE VARYING
BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR AND THIS WILL BE THE TREND FOR AT LEAST THE
FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD AND LIKELY AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IFR STRATUS IS INDICATED BY MOS AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS AT
MOST OF THE TAF SITES FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING ROUGHLY FROM 08 TO 14Z.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK: ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE PSBL LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTN AND EVENING. IFR STRATUS WILL BE PSBL AGAIN THURSDAY
MORNING. MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTN AND
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE WEATHER IMPROVES FRIDAY AND
BEYOND FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN SHORT TERM AS WINDS REMAIN S-SW AOB 15KT THRU WED.
SOME CHANNELING UP THE BAY AS WELL AS SEAS APPRCHG 5 FT OUT NR 20 NM
IVOF BUOY 44009 BY WED NITE...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENUF TO GO
WITH A SUSTAINED SCA SO WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES ATTM. SCA`S MAY
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR SEAS OVR NRN CSTL WTRS.

CDFRNT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE THU NITE FRI WITH LOW PRS MOVG N
ALONG IT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR PRS GRDNT BTWN THIS LOW AND STRONG
HIGH PRS BLDG IN FROM THE NW FOR PSBL SCA CNDTNS FRI INTO FRI EVE.

OTW...HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SUB SCA
CNDTNS XPCTD BOTH SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD/MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MPR

000
FXUS61 KRNK 211917
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
317 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL DRIFT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT TUESDAY...

SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED SCATTERED CU DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. REGIONAL WSR-88D LOOP
DISPLAYED ISOLATED CONVECTION FORMING JUST SOUTHEAST OF CWA ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA IN THE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR.  RNK WRF ARW AND RUC INDICATED THAT THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. THE NAM AND GFS FOCUS ON CONVECTION
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. INCREASED POPS
THIS EVENING IN THE NORTHWEST ALLOWING FOR MENTION OF LIKELY FOR
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA WITH BEST SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND MID
LVL OMEGA FIELDS. SOME OF THE STORMS TONIGHT COULD CONTAIN HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. WITH THE LOSS OF SOLAR
HEATING...CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AND TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. WENT
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO MILD ADJMAV WITH VALUES FROM THE MID
50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST. WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. INCREASED POPS FROM
WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHEST POPS ALONG WESTERN
MOUNTAINS. THE SWODY2 (DAY TWO CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK) HAS THE SLIGHT
RISK JUST TO OUR WEST ON WEDNESDAY. PLAYED HIGHS TEMPERATURES COOLER
ON WEDNESDAY WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
THE MID 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM EDT TUESDAY...

HAVE A COUPLE DAYS MORE OF HUMID WEATHER BEFORE FRONT SWINGS ACROSS
THURSDAY AND BRINGS A RETURN TO LOWER DEWPOINTS.

UNTIL THEN...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. WEDNESDAY NIGHT A
PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARRIVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
WHICH CREATES AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...MAINLY AFFECTING THE
WRN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BETTER PUSH OF THE FRONT ON
THURSDAY COMBINED WITH BETTER UPPER SUPPORT SHOULD BRING SOME
ENHANCED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. TIMING OF THIS FRONT DOES
VARY SOMEWHAT FROM THE MODELS BUT ENOUGH AGREEMENT TO HAVE HIGH
CHANCE TO LIKLEY IN THE AREA THURSDAY. TIMING ALSO GIVES ISSUES TO
SVR THREAT. ATTM...EXPECT A LINE OF SHRA/TSRA TO BE IN THE MTNS IN
THE MORNING AND MOVING INTO THE PIEDMONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. NOT
SEEING A LOT OF HEATING AS CLOUDS WILL BE GENEROUSLY SPREAD. ONE
AREA WITH THE BETTER INSOLATION COULD BE SOUTHSIDE VA/NW NC
PIEDMONT. AT THIS TIME...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A 5 PERCENT
THREAT OF SVR WX MAINLY OVER THE PIEDMONT AND TIDEWATER AREAS OF
VA/NC.

THE FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA GOING INTO THURSDAY EVENING WITH
LINGERING SHORTWAVE INDUCED SHOWERS ACROSS THE MTNS OVERNIGHT. THE
MAIN SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST BY 12Z FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR
ARRIVING. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S WEST TO
THE LOWER TO MID 70S EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT TUESDAY

FOR THE LONG RANGE FORECAST...THE MODELS KEEP A TROUGH IN PLACE
EARLY ON AND THEN GO MORE TOWARD A ZONAL TO RIDGE CONFIGURATION BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WE SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AS SFC HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THIS WEEKEND...SO
WEEKEND HOLIDAY PLANS ARE LOOKING GOOD FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AT
LEAST SATURDAY...AS THE LATEST ECMWF SHOWS ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
PUSHING ACROSS BY SUNDAY AND MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE MTN
EMPIRE OF SW VA/INTO THE NC MTNS SUNDAY MORNING.

THE FLOW SWINGS MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY EVENING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY AND TEMPS. MODELS KEEPING MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND WEST...ALTHOUGH A WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT CAN BRING STORMS WORKING EAST INTO THE MTNS. GIVEN WPC
SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST MORE ON THE
LOW CHANCE SIDE...BUT IF THE 12Z ECMWF VERIFIES WE COULD BE GETTING
SOAKED AGAIN MONDAY-WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT TUESDAY...

MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE LIFTED ACROSS THE REGION.
SCT CU ARE FORMING THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

ONCE AGAIN...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM IS ACROSS
THE WEST. LOCAL WRFARW DISPLAYED HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THEN...STORMS AND COVERAGE
TAPPER OFF OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

PATCHY FOG EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...IN LOCATIONS WHICH RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN CLEAR OUT DURING THE EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
LWB HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO DROP TO LIFR IN FOG WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

THE REGION STAYS IN A WARM...MOIST AIRMASS THROUGH THURSDAY.
AREAS OF FOG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES IS LIKELY EACH NIGHT AND EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THERE WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

NEXT FRONT APPROACHES ON THURSDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS/STORMS
DEVELOPING. HIGH PRESSURE AND BETTER FLYING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/KK
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/KK

000
FXUS61 KLWX 211859
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
259 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO AID A SOUTHERLY
FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
H5 TROF HAS WEAKENED AND SLID SE OF CWFA. THAT LEAVES CWFA W/IN
SLY FLOW FM RDGG SFC-H5. AMS REMAINS UNSTBL BUT CAPPED...W/ SHEN
VLY/PTMC HIGHLANDS LKLY NEAREST CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S.
FORTUNATELY SEE NO SIGNS OF DVLPMNT THRU THE OHVLY...AND HV SCALED
POPS BACK BY ABT 10 PCT. AM STILL HOLDING ONTO CHC POPS SINCE WERE
CLOSE TO BREAKING CAP IN THE W...AND THERE/S PLENTY OF CAPE TO
FEED OFF OF ONCE WE DO. ANY ACTIVITY WL BE FAIRLY UNORGANIZED...
SINCE TRRN CURCULATIONS/DIFF HEATING BNDRYS WL BE BEST TRIGGERS.

ONCE DAYTIME HEATING WANES...RISK DIMINISHES...AND HV SCALED BACK
POPS FOR THE OVNGT HRS. DEWPTS HIGH ENUF THAT W/ PARTLY CLR SKIES
PATCHY FOG SHUD DVLP.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CWFA WL BE WARM SECTOR THRU PD...AS SFC HIGH WELL OFF ERN SEABOARD
AIDS SLY FLOW/MOISTURE ADVECTION. THUS AMS WL REMAIN UNSTBL...W/
POPS GNLY INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO DROPPING MID LVL HGTS. WL STILL
HV A DIURNAL TREND TO STORMS. THU LOOKS TO BE THE BETTER DAY IN
TERMS OF TSRA DVLPMNT AS CDFNT/UPR LOW DROPS THRU GRTLKS. HV
RAISED POPS BOTH DAYS AND INTRODUCED LKLYS ON THU.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CFP THU NGT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH TEMPS 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SHORTWAVE OVER THE TN VLY ON SUNDAY SHOULD
REMAIN WEST OF THE LWX CWA...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR INCREASED
POPS. AS OF NOW EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDS SUNDAY WITH A WARMING
TREND STARTING THAT CONTINUES INTO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS FINALLY SCOURED OUT...LEAVING VFR CONDS AT
ALL TERMINALS. ISOLD SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PARTICULARLY FOR MRB/CHO...BUT THREAT WAY
TOO SLIM FOR TAF INCLUSION. XPCT AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG TO DVLP
AGN LT TNGT...CONTG INTO THE WED MRNG PUSH. THIS TIME HV LEANED
MORE TWD FOG DVLPMNT INLAND SINCE SKIES WL BE PRTLY CLR SUPPORTING
RADL COOLING DOWN TO MOIST DEWPTS. HWVR LOW CLDS WL BE LURKING
JUST E OF DCA/BWI.

DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WED/THUR WITH IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN
THE HEAVIEST ONES. SLY FLOW UNTIL A COLD FROPA THURSDAY NIGHT. NWLY
FLOW WITH CLEAR CONDS SATURDAY. JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION WED AFTN AND
NGT AS LOPRES MOVES THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND HIPRES REMAINS PARKED
OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. SLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE ACCORDINGLY
BETWEEN BOTH SYSTEMS. A SCA GOES IN EFFECT WED AFTN FOR THE WATERS
THAT ARE MOST PRONE TO SLY CHANNELING IN THE MID CHSPK BAY AND
LWR/MID TIDAL POTOMAC RVR. SCA EXPANDS WED NGT TO INCLUDE ALL OF THE
MD CHSPK BAY AS A SLY NOCTURNAL JET DEVELOPS.

SLY FLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
COMES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SLY CHANNELING TO 20 KT POSSIBLE WED
EVENING...AND THURSDAY. NWLY FLOW TO 20 KT POSSIBLE FRIDAY. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FLOW THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DESPITE SLY WINDS...WATER LEVELS THIS AFTN ARE NEAR ASTRONOMICAL
TIDE AND EVEN A FEW INCHES BELOW NORMAL IN THE TIDAL POTOMAC. DO
EXPECT POSITIVE TIDAL ANOMALIES TO DEVELOP DURING THE MIDWEEK AS SLY
FLOW STRENGTHENS. CBOFS GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS VERIFIED FAIRLY WELL OF
LATE...FCST WATER LEVELS TO STAY COMFORTABLY BELOW MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING THRESHOLDS THRU AT LEAST THU MRNG.

COLD FRONT MOVES THRU ERY FRI MRNG. WLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
SHOULD ERASE ANY POSITIVE TIDAL ANOMALIES.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ530-531-539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ532>534-536-537-540>543.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 211812
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
212 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULL A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
TO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THERE IS PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE(PWATS ~1.5 IN) AND MODERATE
CAPE VALUES(~1100 J/KG)...SO GENERALLY HAVE 30 TO 40 PERCENT POPS
ON TODAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...DECREASING
FOR THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.

TEMPERATURE WILL MAX OUT NEAR 80 ALONG THE COAST TO THE MID 80S
INLAND. HIGH TEMPS MAY END UP BEING A FEW DEGREES COOLER IF CLOUD
AND PRECIPITATION REGIONS ARE MORE EXPANSIVE THAN ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ON WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE LESS COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION AS
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WEAKENS. GUIDANCE ON WEDNESDAY IS STILL
UNCLEAR AS TO WHERE TO FOCUS PRECIPITATION AND KEPT 30 PERCENT
POPS AREA WIDE THAT AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

ON THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT OVER
THE PLAINS STATES APPROACHES THE AREA. HAVE 40-50 PERCENT POPS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXCEPT 30 PERCENT IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST.

NAM HAS LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THIS PERIOD
AND IS CLOSE TO EURO. LOWERED READINGS A FEW DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGHS LOW TO MID 80S TUESDAY...MID TO UPR 80S
WEDNESDAY AND AROUND 80 ON THURSDAY. READINGS WILL BE A BIT COOLER
NEAR THE COAST. LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPR 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH COLD FRONT ACROSS THE RGN THU
NITE AND OFFSHORE FRI AM. WILL KEEP THE CHC POPS WITH THIS
FEATURE. LINGERING MSTR NOW PROGGED TO SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH THE
BNDRY FRI SO WILL ONLY CARRY CHC POPS ALONG THE COAST FRI MORN.
LOWS THU NITE IN THE 60S.

CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW FRI AFTN THRU
THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. UPSHOT WILL BE A DRY PRD WITH
TMPS A FEW DEGREES BLO NRML.

STILL WRM FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE U70S-L80S. CAA KICKS IN FRI NITE.
LOWS THRU WEEKEND IN THE 50S. HIGHS EACH DAY L-M70S...WRMG INTO THE
M-U70S MON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE TAF PERIOD. WIDELY SCT CONVECTION
WILL BE PSBL OVER SE PORTIONS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. INCLUDED TEMPO
GROUP FOR TSTMS AT ECG THROUGH 20Z. ALL OF THE SITES WERE VARYING
BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR AND THIS WILL BE THE TREND FOR AT LEAST THE
FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD AND LIKELY AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IFR STRATUS IS INDICATED BY MOS AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS AT
MOST OF THE TAF SITES FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING ROUGHLY FROM 08 TO 14Z.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK: ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE PSBL LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTN AND EVENING. IFR STRATUS WILL BE PSBL AGAIN THURSDAY
MORNING. MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTN AND
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE WEATHER IMPROVES FRIDAY AND
BEYOND FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO FLAGS EXPECTED TODAY THRU WED...AS SSW FLO (AOB 15-20 KTS WITH
SEAS 2-4 FT) CONTINUES ARND HI PRES OFF THE CST. PRES GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE A BIT LATE WED THRU THU AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRNT
PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA THU NGT THRU FRI MORNG. ANY SCA CONDITIONS
THAT DEVELOP WILL BE MARGINAL AHEAD OF THE FRNT. WNA CONTINUES TO
FCST SEAS ARND 5 FT OUT NEAR 20 NM STARTING LATE WED...BUT WILL
HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINE FOR NOW. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW OR N FRI
AFTN BEHIND THE FRNT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD/MAS/DAP
SHORT TERM...LSA
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...TMG

000
FXUS61 KRNK 211740
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
140 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL DRIFT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM EDT TUESDAY...
NORTHWEST WINDS COMBINED WITH SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW VISIBILITIES TO
IMPROVE THIS MORNING...THUS THE DENSE FOG FOR WIDESPREAD HAS
ENDED. POCKET OF FOG MAY LINGER A HOUR OR SO IN THE DEEPER
SHELTERED LOCATION. SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHSIDE THIS MORNING WILL
TRAVEL EAST INTO EASTERN VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON. RUC AND WRF
INDICATED THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS.

AS OF 500 AM EDT TUESDAY...

MANY LOCATIONS REPORTING VISIBILITIES ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS.
HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER
8AM.

RADAR SHOWED ISOLATED SHOWERS IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS
MORNING...MOVING SOUTHEAST. HAVE KEPT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OUT
OF THE FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING. DID LEAVE IN AREAS OF FOG.

SHORT WAVE WAS OVER THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST
MODELS HAVE FEATURE MOVING INTO EASTERN VIRGINIA BY THIS
AFTERNOON. RUC AND WRF MODELS SUGGEST MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE
THIS AFTERNOON. THEN IN EASTERN KENTUCKY AND WEST
VIRGINIA...MOVING INTO OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES AND
THROUGH THE NORTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA THIS EVENING. DO NOT
ENVISION MORE THAN SCATTERED COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

850 MB WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BRIEFLY AFTERNOON FOLLOWING THE
SHORT WAVE THEN BACK TO SOUTHWEST FOR TONIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW AND
850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND +16 WILL RESULT IN DECENT WARM UP FOR
THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE SUN
THIS MORNING. GUIDANCE LOOKED REASONABLE FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...

CLOSED UPPER LOW AND SHARP TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MAKE SLOW
EASTWARD PROGRESS AGAINST STRONG RIDGE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BUT
EVENTUALLY WILL SHOVE A SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE CWA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. UNTIL THEN AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
GENERALLY ABUNDANT MOISTURE BUT WEAK TO DISORGANIZED FORCING. MAY
SEE A PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE ACRS THE OH VALLEY WED AFTERNOON
WHICH WILL LIKELY BE WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES FAR WESTERN CWA
WED EVENING/NIGHT. STILL MAINTAINED AT LEAST HIGH CHC POPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF ANY PSBL LINE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE
DIFFERENTIAL DIURNAL HEATING AND UPSLOPE ENHANCMENT WILL BE FOCUS
FOR MOST LIKELY ACTIVITY WITH LOWER CHC POPS ACRS THE PIEDMONT.
SOME STORMS POTENTIALLY STRONG WITH CAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG BUT
LIMITED SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE STORMS.
AGAIN COULD BE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS REMAIN IN THE
1.2 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE AHEAD OF FRONT AND STORMS COULD BE SLOW-
MOVING.

POPS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WED WITH LOSS OF HEATING BUT RENEWED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LIKELY ON THURSDAY WITH PASSAGE OF SURFACE
FRONT. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE AS BEST SUPPORT
WELL TO NORTH OF CWA BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS AND MORE POCKETS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. POPS DECREASING THURS NIGHT AND FRI AS
DRIER NW FLOW TAKES OVER. LEFT CHC POPS FRI AS COOLER AIR ALOFT
ENHANCES INSTABILITY LESSENING TREND. MILD TEMPS WILL PREDOMINATE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH 80S WED AND EVEN THUR BUT SUBSTANTIALLY
COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND BEYOND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DELIVERING A GOOD INTRUSION COOLER AIR BY
12Z FRIDAY WITH H85 TEMPS SLIPPING TO +5C.  THE UPPER TROUGH IS FCST
TO SLIDE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY WITH COOL NORTHWEST FLOW
PROGGED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MID ATLANTIC.

COOLER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALSO SUGGESTS THE AIR WILL BE DRY...THUS
HAVE REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIP FOR THE WEEKEND.  THAT SAID...AS
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVHD SATURDAY AND ROLLS OFF THE EAST COAST
SUNDAY...MOISTURE COULD SNEAK BACK IN THE PICTURE AS EARLY AS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.  ATTM...WILL GO WITH AN OPTIMISTIC FCST AND JUST
ADVERTISE INCREASING CLOUDS FOR SUNDAY...AND HOLD OFF ON NEXT
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS UNTIL MONDAY.

BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS LOOK COOL WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS
IN THE 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE PIEDMONT. IF
WINDS DECOUPLE AND SKIES REMAIN CLEAR...SOME OF THE SHELTERED
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS MAY SLIP INTO THE UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT TUESDAY...

MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE LIFTED ACROSS THE REGION.
SCT CU ARE FORMING THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

ONCE AGAIN...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM IS ACROSS
THE WEST. LOCAL WRFARW DISPLAYED HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THEN...STORMS AND COVERAGE
TAPPER OFF OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

PATCHY FOG EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...IN LOCATIONS WHICH RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN CLEAR OUT DURING THE EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
LWB HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO DROP TO LIFR IN FOG WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

THE REGION STAYS IN A WARM...MOIST AIRMASS THROUGH THURSDAY.
AREAS OF FOG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES IS LIKELY EACH NIGHT AND EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THERE WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

NEXT FRONT APPROACHES ON THURSDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS/STORMS
DEVELOPING. HIGH PRESSURE AND BETTER FLYING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...PC
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...AMS/KK

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 211451
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1051 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULL A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
TO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THERE IS PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE(PWATS ~1.5 IN) AND MODERATE
CAPE VALUES(~1100 J/KG)...SO GENERALLY HAVE 30 TO 40 PERCENT POPS
ON TODAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...DECREASING
FOR THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.

TEMPERATURE WILL MAX OUT NEAR 80 ALONG THE COAST TO THE MID 80S
INLAND. HIGH TEMPS MAY END UP BEING A FEW DEGREES COOLER IF CLOUD
AND PRECIPITATION REGIONS ARE MORE EXPANSIVE THAN ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ON WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE LESS COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION AS
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WEAKENS. GUIDANCE ON WEDNESDAY IS STILL
UNCLEAR AS TO WHERE TO FOCUS PRECIPITATION AND KEPT 30 PERCENT
POPS AREA WIDE THAT AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

ON THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT OVER
THE PLAINS STATES APPROACHES THE AREA. HAVE 40-50 PERCENT POPS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXCEPT 30 PERCENT IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST.

NAM HAS LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THIS PERIOD
AND IS CLOSE TO EURO. LOWERED READINGS A FEW DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGHS LOW TO MID 80S TUESDAY...MID TO UPR 80S
WEDNESDAY AND AROUND 80 ON THURSDAY. READINGS WILL BE A BIT COOLER
NEAR THE COAST. LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPR 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH COLD FRONT ACROSS THE RGN THU
NITE AND OFFSHORE FRI AM. WILL KEEP THE CHC POPS WITH THIS
FEATURE. LINGERING MSTR NOW PROGGED TO SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH THE
BNDRY FRI SO WILL ONLY CARRY CHC POPS ALONG THE COAST FRI MORN.
LOWS THU NITE IN THE 60S.

CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW FRI AFTN THRU
THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. UPSHOT WILL BE A DRY PRD WITH
TMPS A FEW DEGREES BLO NRML.

STILL WRM FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE U70S-L80S. CAA KICKS IN FRI NITE.
LOWS THRU WEEKEND IN THE 50S. HIGHS EACH DAY L-M70S...WRMG INTO THE
M-U70S MON.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SSW FLO WILL CONTINUE TODAY THRU THU...WITH ISLTD OR SCTD SHOWERS
AND TSTMS EXPECTED ACRS THE REGION. MVFR/IFR CIGS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP OR OCCUR THRU ARND 15Z...THEN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVR THE AREA (OUTSIDE OF PCPN) THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
INTO THIS EVENG. MORE MVFR/IFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP TNGT INTO WED
MORNG...AND AGAIN WED NGT INTO THU MORNG. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACRS THE AREA THU EVENG INTO EARLY FRI AFTN. HI PRES RETURNS FOR
LATE FRI THRU SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
NO FLAGS EXPECTED TODAY THRU WED...AS SSW FLO (AOB 15-20 KTS WITH
SEAS 2-4 FT) CONTINUES ARND HI PRES OFF THE CST. PRES GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE A BIT LATE WED THRU THU AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRNT
PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA THU NGT THRU FRI MORNG. ANY SCA CONDITIONS
THAT DEVELOP WILL BE MARGINAL AHEAD OF THE FRNT. WNA CONTINUES TO
FCST SEAS ARND 5 FT OUT NEAR 20 NM STARTING LATE WED...BUT WILL
HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINE FOR NOW. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW OR N FRI
AFTN BEHIND THE FRNT.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE OBSERVATION AT ORF IS NOT AVAILABLE. A TECH IS AT THE SITE THIS
MORNING AND HOPEFULLY SERVICE WILL BE RESTORED LATER TODAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD/MAS/DAP
SHORT TERM...LSA
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG
EQUIPMENT...

000
FXUS61 KRNK 211425
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1025 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL DRIFT EAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. A
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM EDT TUESDAY...
NORTHWEST WINDS COMBINED WITH SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW VISIBILITIES TO
IMPROVE THIS MORNING...THUS THE DENSE FOG FOR WIDESPREAD HAS
ENDED. POCKET OF FOG MAY LINGER A HOUR OR SO IN THE DEEPER
SHELTERED LOCATION. SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHSIDE THIS MORNING WILL
TRAVEL EAST INTO EASTERN VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON. RUC AND WRF
INDICATED THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS.

AS OF 500 AM EDT TUESDAY...

MANY LOCATIONS REPORTING VISIBILITIES ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS.
HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER
8AM.

RADAR SHOWED ISOLATED SHOWERS IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS
MORNING...MOVING SOUTHEAST. HAVE KEPT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OUT
OF THE FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING. DID LEAVE IN AREAS OF FOG.

SHORT WAVE WAS OVER THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST
MODELS HAVE FEATURE MOVING INTO EASTERN VIRGINIA BY THIS
AFTERNOON. RUC AND WRF MODELS SUGGEST MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE
THIS AFTERNOON. THEN IN EASTERN KENTUCKY AND WEST
VIRGINIA...MOVING INTO OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES AND
THROUGH THE NORTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA THIS EVENING. DO NOT
ENVISION MORE THAN SCATTERED COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

850 MB WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BRIEFLY AFTERNOON FOLLOWING THE
SHORT WAVE THEN BACK TO SOUTHWEST FOR TONIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW AND
850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND +16 WILL RESULT IN DECENT WARM UP FOR
THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE SUN
THIS MORNING. GUIDANCE LOOKED REASONABLE FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...

CLOSED UPPER LOW AND SHARP TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MAKE SLOW
EASTWARD PROGRESS AGAINST STRONG RIDGE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BUT
EVENTUALLY WILL SHOVE A SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE CWA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. UNTIL THEN AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
GENERALLY ABUNDANT MOISTURE BUT WEAK TO DISORGANIZED FORCING. MAY
SEE A PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE ACRS THE OH VALLEY WED AFTERNOON
WHICH WILL LIKELY BE WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES FAR WESTERN CWA
WED EVENING/NIGHT. STILL MAINTAINED AT LEAST HIGH CHC POPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF ANY PSBL LINE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE
DIFFERENTIAL DIURNAL HEATING AND UPSLOPE ENHANCMENT WILL BE FOCUS
FOR MOST LIKELY ACTIVITY WITH LOWER CHC POPS ACRS THE PIEDMONT.
SOME STORMS POTENTIALLY STRONG WITH CAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG BUT
LIMITED SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE STORMS.
AGAIN COULD BE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS REMAIN IN THE
1.2 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE AHEAD OF FRONT AND STORMS COULD BE SLOW-
MOVING.

POPS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WED WITH LOSS OF HEATING BUT RENEWED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LIKELY ON THURSDAY WITH PASSAGE OF SURFACE
FRONT. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE AS BEST SUPPORT
WELL TO NORTH OF CWA BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS AND MORE POCKETS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. POPS DECREASING THURS NIGHT AND FRI AS
DRIER NW FLOW TAKES OVER. LEFT CHC POPS FRI AS COOLER AIR ALOFT
ENHANCES INSTABILITY LESSENING TREND. MILD TEMPS WILL PREDOMINATE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH 80S WED AND EVEN THUR BUT SUBSTANTIALLY
COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND BEYOND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DELIVERING A GOOD INTRUSION COOLER AIR BY
12Z FRIDAY WITH H85 TEMPS SLIPPING TO +5C.  THE UPPER TROUGH IS FCST
TO SLIDE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY WITH COOL NORTHWEST FLOW
PROGGED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MID ATLANTIC.

COOLER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALSO SUGGESTS THE AIR WILL BE DRY...THUS
HAVE REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIP FOR THE WEEKEND.  THAT SAID...AS
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVHD SATURDAY AND ROLLS OFF THE EAST COAST
SUNDAY...MOISTURE COULD SNEAK BACK IN THE PICTURE AS EARLY AS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.  ATTM...WILL GO WITH AN OPTIMISTIC FCST AND JUST
ADVERTISE INCREASING CLOUDS FOR SUNDAY...AND HOLD OFF ON NEXT
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS UNTIL MONDAY.

BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS LOOK COOL WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS
IN THE 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE PIEDMONT. IF
WINDS DECOUPLE AND SKIES REMAIN CLEAR...SOME OF THE SHELTERED
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS MAY SLIP INTO THE UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT TUESDAY...

POCKETS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT THIS MORNING AS WINDS
INCREASE. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT BY LATE MORNING.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. PROBABILITY AT ANY ONE AIRPORT IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT WILL BE DEPENDENT
ON WHICH LOCATIONS GET RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND WHICH CLEAR OUT
DURING THE EVENING.

THE REGION STAYS IN A WARM...MOIST AIRMASS THROUGH THURSDAY.
AREAS OF FOG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES IS LIKELY EACH NIGHT AND EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THERE WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

NEXT FRONT APPROACHES ON THURSDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS/STORMS
DEVELOPING. HIGH PRESSURE AND BETTER FLYING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...PC
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...AMS/KK

000
FXUS61 KLWX 211416
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1016 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO AID A SOUTHERLY
FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN VIRGINIA INTO
THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. PLENTY OF CLDS BANKED UP ALONG
AND EAST OF THE BLURDG...WHILE MOSUN SKIES PREVAIL TO THE W. 12Z
LWX RAOB INDICATES AN INVERSION ASSOCD W/ THE LOW CLDS UP TO ABT
H9. ABV THAT SNDG UNSTBL...W/ APPROX 1850 J/KG CAPE. HWVR CNVCTV
TEMPS /89F/ WL BE HARD TO REACH UNDER THE CLD CVR.

LAMP TEMPS RUNNING LWR THAN FCST MAXT. WHILE LAMP HAS HAD A GOOD
FEEL FOR ERODING LOW CLDS PAST CPL DAYS AND LIKE ITS HANDLING TDA
/SCT OUT LLVL MSTR BTWN 15-18Z/...TEMP HV BEEN RUNNING A LTL ON
THE COOL SIDE. INDEED...OUR OBSVD SNDG CUD WARM UP IN A HURRY.
THEREFORE...WL BE HOLDING ONTO GOING TEMP FCST.

THAT LEADS TO THE PCPN FCST. THE WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL LEAD TO
HIGH AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY. NAM/GFS BUFKIT ARE INDICATING AROUND
2000-2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE THIS AFTERNOON. GOT SIMLR RSLTS IN SBCAPE
MODIFYING OBSVD SNDG TO 85/65. HWVR...THERE WAS ALSO ABT 50 J/KG
CINH. THIS INHIBITION WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP. LIKE PRVS FCST...WHICH CONCENTRATED ON TERRAIN
CIRCULATIONS...A SURFACE TROUGH AND THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACTING AS
LIFTING MECHANISMS. MAIN PREMISE OF POPS REMAIN UNCHGD. WILL ALSO
HAVE TO MONITOR CONVECTION OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS MAY SURVIVE OFF
ITS COLD POOL AND BRING A THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
ALONG THE ALLEGHENY AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THIS EVENING. THE
HIGHEST POPS ARE LOCATED ACROSS THESE AREAS FOR THAT REASON.

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE T-STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD BE
LOW DUE TO THE STRONG CAPPING INVERSION. HOWEVER...IF THE LIFTING
MECHANISMS END UP BEING STRONG ENOUGH TO ERODE THE INVERSION...THEN
GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE.

ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP AS MOISTURE
GETS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION. HOWEVER...LOW
CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS RECENT NIGHTS DUE TO A
HIGHER TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSION AND A STRONGER GRADIENT. MIN TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE 60S ACROSS MOST AREAS TO THE LOWER 70S IN DOWNTOWN
WASHINGTON/BALTIMORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CNTRL MID-ATLANTIC IN WARM SECTOR OF MIDWEST LOW UNTIL A COLD FRONT
IN THE THURSDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME. SFC HIGH WELL OFF ERN SEABOARD AIDS
SLY FLOW/MOISTURE ADVECTION. TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
WITH UPR 60S TO NEAR 70F DEWPOINTS. EXPECT A DIURNAL TREND IN PRECIP
COVERAGE WITH PREFRONTAL FORCING ENTERING THE AREA THURSDAY. SLIGHT
RISK FOR WEDNESDAY DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR STRAIGHT LINE WINDS FROM
ONGOING MCS ACTIVITY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY PUSHING EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z ECMWF PROGS THE CD FROPA AS THURSDAY NIGHT (THERE HAS BEEN
FLUCTUATION FROM LATE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY MORNING). CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH A CRYSTAL CLEAR AND COOL WITH TEMPS 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SHORTWAVE OVER THE TN VLY ON SUNDAY SHOULD
REMAIN WEST OF THE LWX CWA...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR INCREASED
POPS. AS OF NOW EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDS SUNDAY WITH A WARMING TREND
STARTING THAT CONTINUES INTO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE STILL PRESENT
NOCTURNAL INVERSION. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG JUST BGNG TO ERODE...AND
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY/ARND NOON. ISOLD SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THREAT TOO SLIM FOR TAF
INCLUSION. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG MAY IMPACT THE TERMINALS LATE
TONIGHT.

DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WED/THUR WITH IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN
THE HEAVIEST ONES. SLY FLOW UNTIL A COLD FROPA THURSDAY NIGHT. NWLY
FLOW WITH CLEAR CONDS SATURDAY. JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. WIND
GUSTS WILL BE CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HAVE
CAPPED GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS FOR NOW DUE TO THE RELATIVELY COOLER
WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SLY FLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
COMES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SLY CHANNELING TO 20 KT POSSIBLE WED
EVENING...AND THURSDAY. NWLY FLOW TO 20 KT POSSIBLE FRIDAY. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FLOW THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND ONE QUARTER FOOT ABOVE
NORMAL. ANOMALIES MAY INCREASE A BIT MORE DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW...BUT WATER LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW THRESHOLDS FOR MINOR
FLOODING THROUGH TONIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH SOUTHERLY FLOW
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS IT MAY SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN DEPARTURES
AGAIN.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...HTS/BJL
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...BAJ
AVIATION...HTS/BJL/BAJ
MARINE...BAJ/BJL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 211338
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
938 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULL A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
TO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THERE IS PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE(PWATS ~1.5 IN) AND MODERATE
CAPE VALUES(~1100 J/KG)...SO GENERALLY HAVE 30 TO 40 PERCENT POPS
ON TODAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...DECREASING
FOR THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.

TEMPERATURE WILL MAX OUT NEAR 80 ALONG THE COAST TO THE MID 80S
INLAND. HIGH TEMPS MAY END UP BEING A FEW DEGREES COOLER IF CLOUD
AND PRECIPITATION REGIONS ARE MORE EXPANSIVE THAN ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ON WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE LESS COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION AS
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WEAKENS. GUIDANCE ON WEDNESDAY IS STILL
UNCLEAR AS TO WHERE TO FOCUS PRECIPITATION AND KEPT 30 PERCENT
POPS AREA WIDE THAT AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

ON THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT OVER
THE PLAINS STATES APPROACHES THE AREA. HAVE 40-50 PERCENT POPS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXCEPT 30 PERCENT IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST.

NAM HAS LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THIS PERIOD
AND IS CLOSE TO EURO. LOWERED READINGS A FEW DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGHS LOW TO MID 80S TUESDAY...MID TO UPR 80S
WEDNESDAY AND AROUND 80 ON THURSDAY. READINGS WILL BE A BIT COOLER
NEAR THE COAST. LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPR 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH COLD FRONT ACROSS THE RGN THU
NITE AND OFFSHORE FRI AM. WILL KEEP THE CHC POPS WITH THIS
FEATURE. LINGERING MSTR NOW PROGGED TO SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH THE
BNDRY FRI SO WILL ONLY CARRY CHC POPS ALONG THE COAST FRI MORN.
LOWS THU NITE IN THE 60S.

CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW FRI AFTN THRU
THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. UPSHOT WILL BE A DRY PRD WITH
TMPS A FEW DEGREES BLO NRML.

STILL WRM FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE U70S-L80S. CAA KICKS IN FRI NITE.
LOWS THRU WEEKEND IN THE 50S. HIGHS EACH DAY L-M70S...WRMG INTO THE
M-U70S MON.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SSW FLO WILL CONTINUE TODAY THRU THU...WITH ISLTD OR SCTD SHOWERS
AND TSTMS EXPECTED ACRS THE REGION. MVFR/IFR CIGS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP OR OCCUR THRU ARND 15Z...THEN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVR THE AREA (OUTSIDE OF PCPN) THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
INTO THIS EVENG. MORE MVFR/IFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP TNGT INTO WED
MORNG...AND AGAIN WED NGT INTO THU MORNG. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACRS THE AREA THU EVENG INTO EARLY FRI AFTN. HI PRES RETURNS FOR
LATE FRI THRU SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
NO FLAGS EXPECTED TODAY THRU WED...AS SSW FLO (AOB 15-20 KTS WITH
SEAS 2-4 FT) CONTINUES ARND HI PRES OFF THE CST. PRES GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE A BIT LATE WED THRU THU AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRNT
PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA THU NGT THRU FRI MORNG. ANY SCA CONDITIONS
THAT DEVELOP WILL BE MARGINAL AHEAD OF THE FRNT. WNA CONTINUES TO
FCST SEAS ARND 5 FT OUT NEAR 20 NM STARTING LATE WED...BUT WILL
HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINE FOR NOW. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW OR N FRI
AFTN BEHIND THE FRNT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD/MAS/DAP
SHORT TERM...LSA
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG

000
FXUS61 KRNK 211136
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
736 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL DRIFT EAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. A
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT TUESDAY...

MANY LOCATIONS REPORTING VISIBILITIES ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS.
HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER
8AM.

RADAR SHOWED ISOLATED SHOWERS IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS
MORNING...MOVING SOUTHEAST. HAVE KEPT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OUT
OF THE FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING. DID LEAVE IN AREAS OF FOG.

SHORT WAVE WAS OVER THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST
MODELS HAVE FEATURE MOVING INTO EASTERN VIRGINIA BY THIS
AFTERNOON. RUC AND WRF MODELS SUGGEST MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE
THIS AFTERNOON. THEN IN EASTERN KENTUCKY AND WEST
VIRGINIA...MOVING INTO OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES AND
THROUGH THE NORTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA THIS EVENING. DO NOT
ENVISION MORE THAN SCATTERED COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

850 MB WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BRIEFLY AFTERNOON FOLLOWING THE
SHORT WAVE THEN BACK TO SOUTHWEST FOR TONIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW AND
850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND +16 WILL RESULT IN DECENT WARM UP FOR
THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE SUN
THIS MORNING. GUIDANCE LOOKED REASONABLE FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...

CLOSED UPPER LOW AND SHARP TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MAKE SLOW
EASTWARD PROGRESS AGAINST STRONG RIDGE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BUT
EVENTUALLY WILL SHOVE A SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE CWA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. UNTIL THEN AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
GENERALLY ABUNDANT MOISTURE BUT WEAK TO DISORGANIZED FORCING. MAY
SEE A PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE ACRS THE OH VALLEY WED AFTERNOON
WHICH WILL LIKELY BE WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES FAR WESTERN CWA
WED EVENING/NIGHT. STILL MAINTAINED AT LEAST HIGH CHC POPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF ANY PSBL LINE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE
DIFFERENTIAL DIURNAL HEATING AND UPSLOPE ENHANCMENT WILL BE FOCUS
FOR MOST LIKELY ACTIVITY WITH LOWER CHC POPS ACRS THE PIEDMONT.
SOME STORMS POTENTIALLY STRONG WITH CAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG BUT
LIMITED SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE STORMS.
AGAIN COULD BE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS REMAIN IN THE
1.2 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE AHEAD OF FRONT AND STORMS COULD BE SLOW-
MOVING.

POPS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WED WITH LOSS OF HEATING BUT RENEWED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LIKELY ON THURSDAY WITH PASSAGE OF SURFACE
FRONT. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE AS BEST SUPPORT
WELL TO NORTH OF CWA BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS AND MORE POCKETS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. POPS DECREASING THURS NIGHT AND FRI AS
DRIER NW FLOW TAKES OVER. LEFT CHC POPS FRI AS COOLER AIR ALOFT
ENHANCES INSTABILITY LESSENING TREND. MILD TEMPS WILL PREDOMINATE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH 80S WED AND EVEN THUR BUT SUBSTANTIALLY
COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND BEYOND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DELIVERING A GOOD INTRUSION COOLER AIR BY
12Z FRIDAY WITH H85 TEMPS SLIPPING TO +5C.  THE UPPER TROUGH IS FCST
TO SLIDE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY WITH COOL NORTHWEST FLOW
PROGGED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MID ATLANTIC.

COOLER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALSO SUGGESTS THE AIR WILL BE DRY...THUS
HAVE REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIP FOR THE WEEKEND.  THAT SAID...AS
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVHD SATURDAY AND ROLLS OFF THE EAST COAST
SUNDAY...MOISTURE COULD SNEAK BACK IN THE PICTURE AS EARLY AS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.  ATTM...WILL GO WITH AN OPTIMISTIC FCST AND JUST
ADVERTISE INCREASING CLOUDS FOR SUNDAY...AND HOLD OFF ON NEXT
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS UNTIL MONDAY.

BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS LOOK COOL WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS
IN THE 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE PIEDMONT. IF
WINDS DECOUPLE AND SKIES REMAIN CLEAR...SOME OF THE SHELTERED
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS MAY SLIP INTO THE UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT TUESDAY...

WIDESPREAD FOG COVERED THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH IFR TO LIFR
VISIBILITIES. LOW CONFIDENCE AS TO HOW FAST VISIBILITIES WILL
IMPROVE TO MVFR THEN VFR. ONCE 12Z RNK AND GSO UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS
ARE AVAILABLE...DEPTH OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE DETERMINED AND
EROSION TIME MAY BE EASIER TO JUDGE.

A SHORT WAVE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT MOVES INTO EASTERN
VIRGINIA THIS MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. PROBABILITY AT ANY ONE AIRPORT IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. FOG FORMATION
OVERNIGHT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHICH LOCATIONS GET RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND WHICH CLEAR OUT DURING THE EVENING.

THE REGION STAYS IN A WARM...MOIST AIRMASS THROUGH THURSDAY.
AREAS OF FOG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES IS LIKELY EACH NIGHT AND EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THERE WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

NEXT FRONT APPROACHES ON THURSDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS/STORMS
DEVELOPING. HIGH PRESSURE AND BETTER FLYING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ009-
     012>020-022>024.
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ001-002-
     018.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...PC
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...AMS

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210902
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
502 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULL A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
TO AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS COUPLED WITH 20 KT OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
AND WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH IS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS NORTHERN NC. SOME OF THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL MAKE ITS WAY
INTO THE WAKEFIELD CWA...HAVE BOOSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. SOUTHWEST
SFC WINDS WILL STAY ABOVE 5 KT OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL HAMPER ANY
CHANCE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID NIGHT AHEAD AS
TEMPERATURES ONLY DROP INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S REGION-WIDE.

THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE(PWATS ~1.7
IN) AND MODERATE CAPE VALUES(~1100 J/KG)...SO GENERALLY HAVE 30 TO
40 PERCENT POPS ON TUESDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS...DECREASING FOR THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.

TEMPERATURE ON TUESDAY WILL MAX OUT NEAR 80 ALONG THE COAST TO THE
MID 80S INLAND. HIGH TEMPS MAY END UP BEING A FEW DEGREES COOLER
IF CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION REGIONS ARE MORE EXPANSIVE THAN ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ON WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE LESS COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION AS
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WEAKENS. GUIDANCE ON WEDNESDAY IS STILL
UNCLEAR AS TO WHERE TO FOCUS PRECIPITATION AND KEPT 30 PERCENT
POPS AREA WIDE THAT AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

ON THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT OVER
THE PLAINS STATES APPROACHES THE AREA. HAVE 40-50 PERCENT POPS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXCEPT 30 PERCENT IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST.

NAM HAS LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THIS PERIOD
AND IS CLOSE TO EURO. LOWERED READINGS A FEW DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGHS LOW TO MID 80S TUESDAY...MID TO UPR 80S
WEDNESDAY AND AROUND 80 ON THURSDAY. READINGS WILL BE A BIT COOLER
NEAR THE COAST. LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPR 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH COLD FRONT ACROSS THE RGN THU
NITE AND OFFSHORE FRI AM. WILL KEEP THE CHC POPS WITH THIS
FEATURE. LINGERING MSTR NOW PROGGED TO SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH THE
BNDRY FRI SO WILL ONLY CARRY CHC POPS ALONG THE COAST FRI MORN.
LOWS THU NITE IN THE 60S.

CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW FRI AFTN THRU
THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. UPSHOT WILL BE A DRY PRD WITH
TMPS A FEW DEGREES BLO NRML.

STILL WRM FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE U70S-L80S. CAA KICKS IN FRI NITE.
LOWS THRU WEEKEND IN THE 50S. HIGHS EACH DAY L-M70S...WRMG INTO THE
M-U70S MON.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SSW FLO WILL CONTINUE TODAY THRU THU...WITH ISLTD OR SCTD SHOWERS
AND TSTMS EXPECTED ACRS THE REGION. MVFR/IFR CIGS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP OR OCCUR THRU ARND 15Z...THEN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVR THE AREA (OUTSIDE OF PCPN) THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
INTO THIS EVENG. MORE MVFR/IFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP TNGT INTO WED
MORNG...AND AGAIN WED NGT INTO THU MORNG. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACRS THE AREA THU EVENG INTO EARLY FRI AFTN. HI PRES RETURNS FOR
LATE FRI THRU SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
NO FLAGS EXPECTED TODAY THRU WED...AS SSW FLO (AOB 15-20 KTS WITH
SEAS 2-4 FT) CONTINUES ARND HI PRES OFF THE CST. PRES GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE A BIT LATE WED THRU THU AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRNT
PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA THU NGT THRU FRI MORNG. ANY SCA CONDITIONS
THAT DEVELOP WILL BE MARGINAL AHEAD OF THE FRNT. WNA CONTINUES TO
FCST SEAS ARND 5 FT OUT NEAR 20 NM STARTING LATE WED...BUT WILL
HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINE FOR NOW. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW OR N FRI
AFTN BEHIND THE FRNT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD/DAP
SHORT TERM...LSA
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG

000
FXUS61 KRNK 210859
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
459 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL DRIFT EAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. A
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT TUESDAY...

MANY LOCATIONS REPORTING VISIBILITIES ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS.
HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER
8AM.

RADAR SHOWED ISOLATED SHOWERS IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS
MORNING...MOVING SOUTHEAST. HAVE KEPT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OUT
OF THE FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING. DID LEAVE IN AREAS OF FOG.

SHORT WAVE WAS OVER THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST
MODELS HAVE FEATURE MOVING INTO EASTERN VIRGINIA BY THIS
AFTERNOON. RUC AND WRF MODELS SUGGEST MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE
THIS AFTERNOON. THEN IN EASTERN KENTUCKY AND WEST
VIRGINIA...MOVING INTO OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES AND
THROUGH THE NORTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA THIS EVENING. DO NOT
ENVISION MORE THAN SCATTERED COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

850 MB WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BRIEFLY AFTERNOON FOLLOWING THE
SHORT WAVE THEN BACK TO SOUTHWEST FOR TONIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW AND
850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND +16 WILL RESULT IN DECENT WARM UP FOR
THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE SUN
THIS MORNING. GUIDANCE LOOKED REASONABLE FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...

CLOSED UPPER LOW AND SHARP TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MAKE SLOW
EASTWARD PROGRESS AGAINST STRONG RIDGE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BUT
EVENTUALLY WILL SHOVE A SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE CWA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. UNTIL THEN AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
GENERALLY ABUNDANT MOISTURE BUT WEAK TO DISORGANIZED FORCING. MAY
SEE A PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE ACRS THE OH VALLEY WED AFTERNOON
WHICH WILL LIKELY BE WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES FAR WESTERN CWA
WED EVENING/NIGHT. STILL MAINTAINED AT LEAST HIGH CHC POPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF ANY PSBL LINE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE
DIFFERENTIAL DIURNAL HEATING AND UPSLOPE ENHANCMENT WILL BE FOCUS
FOR MOST LIKELY ACTIVITY WITH LOWER CHC POPS ACRS THE PIEDMONT.
SOME STORMS POTENTIALLY STRONG WITH CAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG BUT
LIMITED SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE STORMS.
AGAIN COULD BE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS REMAIN IN THE
1.2 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE AHEAD OF FRONT AND STORMS COULD BE SLOW-
MOVING.

POPS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WED WITH LOSS OF HEATING BUT RENEWED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LIKELY ON THURSDAY WITH PASSAGE OF SURFACE
FRONT. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE AS BEST SUPPORT
WELL TO NORTH OF CWA BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS AND MORE POCKETS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. POPS DECREASING THURS NIGHT AND FRI AS
DRIER NW FLOW TAKES OVER. LEFT CHC POPS FRI AS COOLER AIR ALOFT
ENHANCES INSTABILITY LESSENING TREND. MILD TEMPS WILL PREDOMINATE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH 80S WED AND EVEN THUR BUT SUBSTANTIALLY
COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND BEYOND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DELIVERING A GOOD INTRUSION COOLER AIR BY
12Z FRIDAY WITH H85 TEMPS SLIPPING TO +5C.  THE UPPER TROUGH IS FCST
TO SLIDE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY WITH COOL NORTHWEST FLOW
PROGGED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MID ATLANTIC.

COOLER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALSO SUGGESTS THE AIR WILL BE DRY...THUS
HAVE REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIP FOR THE WEEKEND.  THAT SAID...AS
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVHD SATURDAY AND ROLLS OFF THE EAST COAST
SUNDAY...MOISTURE COULD SNEAK BACK IN THE PICTURE AS EARLY AS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.  ATTM...WILL GO WITH AN OPTIMISTIC FCST AND JUST
ADVERTISE INCREASING CLOUDS FOR SUNDAY...AND HOLD OFF ON NEXT
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS UNTIL MONDAY.

BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS LOOK COOL WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS
IN THE 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE PIEDMONT. IF
WINDS DECOUPLE AND SKIES REMAIN CLEAR...SOME OF THE SHELTERED
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS MAY SLIP INTO THE UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM EDT MONDAY...

MANY OBSERVATIONS HAVE NOT BEEN TRANSMITTED SINCE 04Z/MIDNIGHT DUE
TO AN OUTAGE IN NATIONAL COMMUNICATIONS CENTER. UNTIL DATA FLOW IS
RESUMED...HAVE ADDED...AMD NOT SKED...TO THE END OF THE TAFS.

EXPECT AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS OVERNIGHT. IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS
ARE LIKELY BY 09Z/4AM. LOCATIONS THAT HAD RAIN ON MONDAY WILL HAVE
FOG...INCLUDING ROA AND DAN.

A SHORT WAVE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT MOVES INTO EASTERN VIRGINIA
TODAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. PROBABILITY AT ANY ONE AIRPORT IS TOO LOW TON INCLUDE
IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

THE REGION STAYS IN A WARM...MOIST AIRMASS THROUGH THURSDAY.
PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES IS LIKELY EACH NIGHT AND EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THERE WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

NEXT FRONT APPROACHES ON THURSDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS/STORMS
DEVELOPING. HIGH PRESSURE AND BETTER FLYING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ009-
     012>020-022>024.
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ001-002-
     018.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...PC
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...AMS

000
FXUS61 KRNK 210822
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
422 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL DRIFT EAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. A
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT TUESDAY...

RADAR SHOWED ISOLATED SHOWERS IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS
MORNING...MOVING SOUTHEAST. HAVE KEPT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OUT
OF THE FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING. DID LEAVE IN AREAS OF FOG.

SHORT WAVE WAS OVER THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST
MODELS HAVE FEATURE MOVING INTO EASTERN VIRGINIA BY THIS
AFTERNOON. RUC AND WRF MODELS SUGGEST MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE
THIS AFTERNOON. THEN IN EASTERN KENTUCKY AND WEST
VIRGINIA...MOVING INTO OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES AND
THROUGH THE NORTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA THIS EVENING. DO NOT
ENVISION MORE THAN SCATTERED COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

850 MB WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BRIEFLY AFTERNOON FOLLOWING THE
SHORT WAVE THEN BACK TO SOUTHWEST FOR TONIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW AND
850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND +16 WILL RESULT IN DECENT WARM UP FOR
THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE SUN
THIS MORNING. GUIDANCE LOOKED REASONABLE FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...

CLOSED UPPER LOW AND SHARP TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MAKE SLOW
EASTWARD PROGRESS AGAINST STRONG RIDGE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BUT
EVENTUALLY WILL SHOVE A SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE CWA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. UNTIL THEN AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
GENERALLY ABUNDANT MOISTURE BUT WEAK TO DISORGANIZED FORCING. MAY
SEE A PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE ACRS THE OH VALLEY WED AFTERNOON
WHICH WILL LIKELY BE WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES FAR WESTERN CWA
WED EVENING/NIGHT. STILL MAINTAINED AT LEAST HIGH CHC POPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF ANY PSBL LINE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE
DIFFERENTIAL DIURNAL HEATING AND UPSLOPE ENHANCMENT WILL BE FOCUS
FOR MOST LIKELY ACTIVITY WITH LOWER CHC POPS ACRS THE PIEDMONT.
SOME STORMS POTENTIALLY STRONG WITH CAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG BUT
LIMITED SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE STORMS.
AGAIN COULD BE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS REMAIN IN THE
1.2 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE AHEAD OF FRONT AND STORMS COULD BE SLOW-
MOVING.

POPS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WED WITH LOSS OF HEATING BUT RENEWED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LIKELY ON THURSDAY WITH PASSAGE OF SURFACE
FRONT. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE AS BEST SUPPORT
WELL TO NORTH OF CWA BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS AND MORE POCKETS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. POPS DECREASING THURS NIGHT AND FRI AS
DRIER NW FLOW TAKES OVER. LEFT CHC POPS FRI AS COOLER AIR ALOFT
ENHANCES INSTABILITY LESSENING TREND. MILD TEMPS WILL PREDOMINATE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH 80S WED AND EVEN THUR BUT SUBSTANTIALLY
COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND BEYOND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DELIVERING A GOOD INTRUSION COOLER AIR BY
12Z FRIDAY WITH H85 TEMPS SLIPPING TO +5C.  THE UPPER TROUGH IS FCST
TO SLIDE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY WITH COOL NORTHWEST FLOW
PROGGED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MID ATLANTIC.

COOLER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALSO SUGGESTS THE AIR WILL BE DRY...THUS
HAVE REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIP FOR THE WEEKEND.  THAT SAID...AS
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVHD SATURDAY AND ROLLS OFF THE EAST COAST
SUNDAY...MOISTURE COULD SNEAK BACK IN THE PICTURE AS EARLY AS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.  ATTM...WILL GO WITH AN OPTIMISTIC FCST AND JUST
ADVERTISE INCREASING CLOUDS FOR SUNDAY...AND HOLD OFF ON NEXT
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS UNTIL MONDAY.

BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS LOOK COOL WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS
IN THE 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE PIEDMONT. IF
WINDS DECOUPLE AND SKIES REMAIN CLEAR...SOME OF THE SHELTERED
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS MAY SLIP INTO THE UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM EDT MONDAY...

MANY OBSERVATIONS HAVE NOT BEEN TRANSMITTED SINCE 04Z/MIDNIGHT DUE
TO AN OUTAGE IN NATIONAL COMMUNICATIONS CENTER. UNTIL DATA FLOW IS
RESUMED...HAVE ADDED...AMD NOT SKED...TO THE END OF THE TAFS.

EXPECT AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS OVERNIGHT. IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS
ARE LIKELY BY 09Z/4AM. LOCATIONS THAT HAD RAIN ON MONDAY WILL HAVE
FOG...INCLUDING ROA AND DAN.

A SHORT WAVE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT MOVES INTO EASTERN VIRGINIA
TODAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. PROBABILITY AT ANY ONE AIRPORT IS TOO LOW TON INCLUDE
IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

THE REGION STAYS IN A WARM...MOIST AIRMASS THROUGH THURSDAY.
PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES IS LIKELY EACH NIGHT AND EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THERE WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

NEXT FRONT APPROACHES ON THURSDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS/STORMS
DEVELOPING. HIGH PRESSURE AND BETTER FLYING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...PC
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...AMS

000
FXUS61 KLWX 210758
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
358 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO AID A SOUTHERLY
FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN VIRGINIA INTO
THE CAROLINAS EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH HAS CAUSED WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. PLENTY OF MOISTURE IS TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION AND THIS WILL CAUSE LOW CLOUDS
ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG EARLY. FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE IN VALLEYS
AND RURAL AREAS.

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL MIX OUT BY MID-MORNING AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS. MAX TEMPS TODAY
SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN MONDAY...RANGING FROM THE 70S
IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST OTHER
LOCATIONS. LEANED CLOSER TO THE MAV GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS WHICH IS
A BIT WARMER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE. THE MAV HAS BEEN PERFORMING WELL
AND THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE AND MIXING FOR HIGHER TEMPS.

THE WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL LEAD TO HIGH AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY.
NAM/GFS BUFKIT ARE INDICATING AROUND 2000-2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE THIS
AFTERNOON. A CAPPING INVERSION AROUND 5KFT WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT
FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. DID ALLOW FOR A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/T-STORMS ANYWAY DUE TO TERRAIN CIRCULATION...A SURFACE
TROUGH AND THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACTING AS LIFTING MECHANISMS. WILL
ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR CONVECTION OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS MAY SURVIVE
OFF ITS COLD POOL AND BRING A THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
ALONG THE ALLEGHENY AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THIS EVENING. THE HIGHEST
POPS ARE LOCATED ACROSS THESE AREAS FOR THAT REASON.

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE T-STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD BE
LOW DUE TO THE STRONG CAPPING INVERSION. HOWEVER...IF THE LIFTING
MECHANISMS END UP BEING STRONG ENOUGH TO ERODE THE INVERSION...THEN
GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE.

ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP AS MOISTURE
GETS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION. HOWEVER...LOW
CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS RECENT NIGHTS DUE TO A
HIGHER TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSION AND A STRONGER GRADIENT. MIN TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE 60S ACROSS MOST AREAS TO THE LOWER 70S IN DOWNTOWN
WASHINGTON/BALTIMORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CNTRL MID-ATLANTIC IN WARM SECTOR OF MIDWEST LOW UNTIL A COLD FRONT
IN THE THURSDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME. SFC HIGH WELL OFF ERN SEABOARD AIDS
SLY FLOW/MOISTURE ADVECTION. TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
WITH UPR 60S TO NEAR 70F DEWPOINTS. EXPECT A DIURNAL TREND IN PRECIP
COVERAGE WITH PREFRONTAL FORCING ENTERING THE AREA THURSDAY. SLIGHT
RISK FOR WEDNESDAY DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR STRAIGHT LINE WINDS FROM
ONGOING MCS ACTIVITY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY PUSHING EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z ECMWF PROGS THE CD FROPA AS THURSDAY NIGHT (THERE HAS BEEN
FLUCTUATION FROM LATE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY MORNING). CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH A CRYSTAL CLEAR AND COOL WITH TEMPS 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SHORTWAVE OVER THE TN VLY ON SUNDAY SHOULD
REMAIN WEST OF THE LWX CWA...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR INCREASED
POPS. AS OF NOW EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDS SUNDAY WITH A WARMING TREND
STARTING THAT CONTINUES INTO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED WITH IFR/SUBIFR CONDITIONS EARLY
THIS MORNING. CIGS/VSBYS WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING AND SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS
EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG MAY IMPACT THE TERMINALS LATE
TONIGHT.

DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WED/THUR WITH IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN
THE HEAVIEST ONES. SLY FLOW UNTIL A COLD FROPA THURSDAY NIGHT. NWLY
FLOW WITH CLEAR CONDS SATURDAY. JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. WIND
GUSTS WILL BE CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HAVE
CAPPED GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS FOR NOW DUE TO THE RELATIVELY COOLER
WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SLY FLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
COMES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SLY CHANNELING TO 20 KT POSSIBLE WED
EVENING...AND THURSDAY. NWLY FLOW TO 20 KT POSSIBLE FRIDAY. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FLOW THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND ONE QUARTER FOOT ABOVE
NORMAL. ANOMALIES MAY INCREASE A BIT MORE DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW...BUT WATER LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW THRESHOLDS FOR MINOR
FLOODING THROUGH TONIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH SOUTHERLY FLOW
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS IT MAY SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN DEPARTURES
AGAIN.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...BAJ
AVIATION...BAJ/BJL
MARINE...BAJ/BJL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210756
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
356 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULL A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
TO AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS COUPLED WITH 20 KT OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
AND WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH IS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS NORTHERN NC. SOME OF THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL MAKE ITS WAY
INTO THE WAKEFIELD CWA...HAVE BOOSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. SOUTHWEST
SFC WINDS WILL STAY ABOVE 5 KT OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL HAMPER ANY
CHANCE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID NIGHT AHEAD AS
TEMPERATURES ONLY DROP INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S REGION-WIDE.

THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE(PWATS ~1.7
IN) AND MODERATE CAPE VALUES(~1100 J/KG)...SO GENERALLY HAVE 30 TO
40 PERCENT POPS ON TUESDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS...DECREASING FOR THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.

TEMPERATURE ON TUESDAY WILL MAX OUT NEAR 80 ALONG THE COAST TO THE
MID 80S INLAND. HIGH TEMPS MAY END UP BEING A FEW DEGREES COOLER
IF CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION REGIONS ARE MORE EXPANSIVE THAN ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ON WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE LESS COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION AS
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WEAKENS. GUIDANCE ON WEDNESDAY IS STILL
UNCLEAR AS TO WHERE TO FOCUS PRECIPITATION AND KEPT 30 PERCENT
POPS AREA WIDE THAT AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

ON THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT OVER
THE PLAINS STATES APPROACHES THE AREA. HAVE 40-50 PERCENT POPS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXCEPT 30 PERCENT IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST.

NAM HAS LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THIS PERIOD
AND IS CLOSE TO EURO. LOWERED READINGS A FEW DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGHS LOW TO MID 80S TUESDAY...MID TO UPR 80S
WEDNESDAY AND AROUND 80 ON THURSDAY. READINGS WILL BE A BIT COOLER
NEAR THE COAST. LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPR 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH COLD FRONT ACROSS THE RGN THU
NITE AND OFFSHORE FRI AM. WILL KEEP THE CHC POPS WITH THIS
FEATURE. LINGERING MSTR NOW PROGGED TO SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH THE
BNDRY FRI SO WILL ONLY CARRY CHC POPS ALONG THE COAST FRI MORN.
LOWS THU NITE IN THE 60S.

CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW FRI AFTN THRU
THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. UPSHOT WILL BE A DRY PRD WITH
TMPS A FEW DEGREES BLO NRML.

STILL WRM FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE U70S-L80S. CAA KICKS IN FRI NITE.
LOWS THRU WEEKEND IN THE 50S. HIGHS EACH DAY L-M70S...WRMG INTO THE
M-U70S MON.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SSW FLO WILL CONTINUE TODAY THRU THU...WITH ISLTD OR SCTD SHOWERS
AND TSTMS EXPECTED ACRS THE REGION. MVFR/IFR CIGS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP OR OCCUR THRU ARND 15Z...THEN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVR THE AREA (OUTSIDE OF PCPN) THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
INTO THIS EVENG. MORE MVFR/IFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP TNGT INTO WED
MORNG...AND AGAIN WED NGT INTO THU MORNG. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACRS THE AREA THU EVENG INTO EARLY FRI AFTN. HI PRES RETURNS FOR
LATE FRI THRU SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
NO FLAGS EXPECTED AS SRLY FLOW (AOB 15KTS WITH SEAS 2-4 FT) CONTS
ARND HIGH PRS OFF THE COAST THROUGH MID WEEK. PRS GRDNT INCRS LATE
WED AHEAD OF APPRCHG CDFRNT PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA THURS NITE.
ANY SCA CDNTNS THAT DVLP WILL BE MARGINAL AHEAD OF SAID FRNT. WNA
CONTS TO FORECAST SEAS ARND 5 FT OUT NEAR 20 NM STARTING LATE WED
BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINE THIS FAR OUT FOR NOW.

WNDS SHFT INTO NW THEN N BEHIND FRNT FRI. NXT THREAT FOR SCA CNDTNS
COMES FRI NITE/ERLY SAT WITH A DECENT CAA SURGE XPCTD.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD/DAP
SHORT TERM...LSA
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MPR

000
FXUS61 KRNK 210554
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
154 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL DRIFT EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1055 PM EDT MONDAY...

LAST BATCH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE CENTRAL CWA DIMINISHED
RAPIDLY A FEW HOURS AGO AND NOW EXPECTING A DRY ALBEIT HUMID
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. AREAS OF FOG LIKELY OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN. LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE
TO ADJMAV WITH MILD READINGS FROM THE MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
THE MID 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY WITH A
FOCUS ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. LEANED POPS TOWARDS GFS WITH BEST
CHANCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE
TO WARMER ADJMAV WITH READINGS FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO NEAR 90 DEGREES IN THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY...TO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES BY LATE THURSDAY.  ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO PASS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THURSDAY.

SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY WITH FRONTAL SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY. H85 TEMPS OF +15
TO +17 DEG C ARE EXPECTED UP UNTIL THURSDAYS FROPA...SUPPORTING
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S AND NIGHT-TIME LOWS IN THE 50S/60S. AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY...TEMPS COOL DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DELIVERING A GOOD INTRUSION COOLER AIR BY
12Z FRIDAY WITH H85 TEMPS SLIPPING TO +5C.  THE UPPER TROUGH IS FCST
TO SLIDE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY WITH COOL NORTHWEST FLOW
PROGGED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MID ATLANTIC.

COOLER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALSO SUGGESTS THE AIR WILL BE DRY...THUS
HAVE REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIP FOR THE WEEKEND.  THAT SAID...AS
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVHD SATURDAY AND ROLLS OFF THE EAST COAST
SUNDAY...MOISTURE COULD SNEAK BACK IN THE PICTURE AS EARLY AS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.  ATTM...WILL GO WITH AN OPTIMISTIC FCST AND JUST
ADVERTISE INCREASING CLOUDS FOR SUNDAY...AND HOLD OFF ON NEXT
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS UNTIL MONDAY.

BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS LOOK COOL WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS
IN THE 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE PIEDMONT. IF
WINDS DECOUPLE AND SKIES REMAIN CLEAR...SOME OF THE SHELTERED
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS MAY SLIP INTO THE UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM EDT MONDAY...

MANY OBSERVATIONS HAVE NOT BEEN TRANSMITTED SINCE 04Z/MIDNIGHT DUE
TO AN OUTAGE IN NATIONAL COMMUNICATIONS CENTER. UNTIL DATA FLOW IS
RESUMED...HAVE ADDED...AMD NOT SKED...TO THE END OF THE TAFS.

EXPECT AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS OVERNIGHT. IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS
ARE LIKELY BY 09Z/4AM. LOCATIONS THAT HAD RAIN ON MONDAY WILL HAVE
FOG...INCLUDING ROA AND DAN.

A SHORT WAVE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT MOVES INTO EASTERN VIRGINIA
TODAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. PROBABILITY AT ANY ONE AIRPORT IS TOO LOW TON INCLUDE
IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

THE REGION STAYS IN A WARM...MOIST AIRMASS THROUGH THURSDAY.
PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES IS LIKELY EACH NIGHT AND EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THERE WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

NEXT FRONT APPROACHES ON THURSDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS/STORMS
DEVELOPING. HIGH PRESSURE AND BETTER FLYING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...KK/PC
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...AMS

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210547
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
147 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULL A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
TO AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
PULSE-TYPE CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO WANE THIS EVENING. THERE IS
STILL ENOUGH SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT AND PLENTY OF SUBTROPICAL SFC
MOISTURE AVAILABLE (IT IS BEING PULLED IN ON SW FLOW FROM THE
ATLANTIC) TO KEEP LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING. PRECIP WILL THEN TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT.
SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS WILL STAY ABOVE 5 KT OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL
HAMPER ANY CHANCE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID
NIGHT AHEAD AS TEMPERATURES ONLY DROP INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S
REGIONWIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE LESS COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WEAKENS. THERE WILL STILL BE
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND GENERALLY HAVE 30 TO 40 PERCENT
POPS ON TUESDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...
DECREASING FOR THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. GUIDANCE ON
WEDNESDAY IS STILL UNCLEAR AS TO WHERE TO FOCUS PRECIPITATION AND
KEPT 30 PERCENT POPS AREA WIDE THAT AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

ON THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT OVER
THE PLAINS STATES APPROACHES THE AREA. HAVE 40-50 PERCENT POPS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXCEPT 30 PERCENT IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST.

NAM HAS LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THIS PERIOD
AND IS CLOSE TO EURO. LOWERED READINGS A FEW DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGHS LOW TO MID 80S TUESDAY...MID TO UPR 80S
WEDNESDAY AND AROUND 80 ON THURSDAY. READINGS WILL BE A BIT COOLER
NEAR THE COAST. LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPR 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH COLD FRONT ACROSS THE RGN THU
NITE AND OFFSHORE FRI AM. WILL KEEP THE CHC POPS WITH THIS
FEATURE. LINGERING MSTR NOW PROGGED TO SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH THE
BNDRY FRI SO WILL ONLY CARRY CHC POPS ALONG THE COAST FRI MORN.
LOWS THU NITE IN THE 60S.

CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW FRI AFTN THRU
THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. UPSHOT WILL BE A DRY PRD WITH
TMPS A FEW DEGREES BLO NRML.

STILL WRM FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE U70S-L80S. CAA KICKS IN FRI NITE.
LOWS THRU WEEKEND IN THE 50S. HIGHS EACH DAY L-M70S...WRMG INTO THE
M-U70S MON.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SSW FLO WILL CONTINUE TODAY THRU THU...WITH ISLTD OR SCTD SHOWERS
AND TSTMS EXPECTED ACRS THE REGION. MVFR/IFR CIGS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP OR OCCUR THRU ARND 15Z...THEN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVR THE AREA (OUTSIDE OF PCPN) THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
INTO THIS EVENG. MORE MVFR/IFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP TNGT INTO WED
MORNG...AND AGAIN WED NGT INTO THU MORNG. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACRS THE AREA THU EVENG INTO EARLY FRI AFTN. HI PRES RETURNS FOR
LATE FRI THRU SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
NO FLAGS EXPECTED AS SRLY FLOW (AOB 15KTS WITH SEAS 2-4 FT) CONTS
ARND HIGH PRS OFF THE COAST THROUGH MID WEEK. PRS GRDNT INCRS LATE
WED AHEAD OF APPRCHG CDFRNT PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA THURS NITE.
ANY SCA CDNTNS THAT DVLP WILL BE MARGINAL AHEAD OF SAID FRNT. WNA
CONTS TO FORECAST SEAS ARND 5 FT OUT NEAR 20 NM STARTING LATE WED
BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINE THIS FAR OUT FOR NOW.

WNDS SHFT INTO NW THEN N BEHIND FRNT FRI. NXT THREAT FOR SCA CNDTNS
COMES FRI NITE/ERLY SAT WITH A DECENT CAA SURGE XPCTD.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...LSA
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MPR

000
FXUS61 KRNK 210259
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1059 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL DRIFT EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1055 PM EDT MONDAY...

LAST BATCH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE CENTRAL CWA DIMINISHED
RAPIDLY A FEW HOURS AGO AND NOW EXPECTING A DRY ALBEIT HUMID
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. AREAS OF FOG LIKELY OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN. LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE
TO ADJMAV WITH MILD READINGS FROM THE MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
THE MID 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY WITH A
FOCUS ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. LEANED POPS TOWARDS GFS WITH BEST
CHANCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE
TO WARMER ADJMAV WITH READINGS FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO NEAR 90 DEGREES IN THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY...TO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES BY LATE THURSDAY.  ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO PASS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THURSDAY.

SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY WITH FRONTAL SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY. H85 TEMPS OF +15
TO +17 DEG C ARE EXPECTED UP UNTIL THURSDAYS FROPA...SUPPORTING
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S AND NIGHT-TIME LOWS IN THE 50S/60S. AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY...TEMPS COOL DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DELIVERING A GOOD INTRUSION COOLER AIR BY
12Z FRIDAY WITH H85 TEMPS SLIPPING TO +5C.  THE UPPER TROUGH IS FCST
TO SLIDE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY WITH COOL NORTHWEST FLOW
PROGGED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MID ATLANTIC.

COOLER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALSO SUGGESTS THE AIR WILL BE DRY...THUS
HAVE REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIP FOR THE WEEKEND.  THAT SAID...AS
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVHD SATURDAY AND ROLLS OFF THE EAST COAST
SUNDAY...MOISTURE COULD SNEAK BACK IN THE PICTURE AS EARLY AS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.  ATTM...WILL GO WITH AN OPTIMISTIC FCST AND JUST
ADVERTISE INCREASING CLOUDS FOR SUNDAY...AND HOLD OFF ON NEXT
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS UNTIL MONDAY.

BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS LOOK COOL WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS
IN THE 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE PIEDMONT. IF
WINDS DECOUPLE AND SKIES REMAIN CLEAR...SOME OF THE SHELTERED
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS MAY SLIP INTO THE UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT MONDAY...

AREAS OF MVFR/IFR FOG LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY
WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN...MOST OF TAF SITES HAVE HAD AT LEAST SOME
RAIN TODAY..WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS AT KROA AND KBLF.

THE REGION STAYS IN A WARM...MOIST AIRMASS THROUGH THURSDAY.
PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES IS LIKELY EACH NIGHT AND EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THERE WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

NEXT FRONT APPROACHES ON THURSDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS/STORMS
DEVELOPING. HIGH PRESSURE AND BETTER FLYING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...KK/PC
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...KK/PC

000
FXUS61 KLWX 202354
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
754 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL PROVIDE A SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS.
MEANWHILE...AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION. A
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. COOLER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ALTHO NOT QUITE AS WARM...WINDWISE IT FEELS SOMEWHAT LK MID-SUMMER
GIVEN HOW LGT THE WIND FIELD IS. CELLS WHICH PRODUCE ISOLD FLDG IN
AUGUSTA CO. IN LATE AFTN ARE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN.

ONCE DAYTIME HEATING WANES...SHRA/TSRA CVRG SHUD DIMINISH. AM
RUNNING WITH A DRY FCST OVNGT. ITS PSBL THAT THERE MAY BE A STRAY
STORM OR TWO...BUT CANNOT PINPOINT WHERE...AND WUD RATHER NOT
BLANKET LOW POPS OVER A LARGE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MID-ATLANTIC WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THINGS DURING MID-WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARM UP TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 80S. IF THERE IS MORE SUNSHINE...TEMPS COULD REACH UPPER
80S IN SOME LOCATIONS.

THERE WL BE TRRN CIRCULATIONS AND DIURNAL HEATING BNDRYS. HV CHC
POPS CENTERED UPON TIME OF PEAK HTG TUE AFTN. AM TAKING THAT ROUND
EWD IN THE EVNG INVOF H5 AXIS.

THE MID LVL RDG AXIS BREAKS DOWN WED WHICH WL PROVIDE ITS OWN TSRA
SUPPORT. WED AFTN POPS SEEM ADEQUATE IN THE 30-40 PCT RANGE...BUT
HV INCREASE EVNG CVRG AS HGTS FALL. NWRN CORNER OF CWFA TOUCHING
SPC DAY 3 SLGT RISK...AND ISOL SVR CRVG TO APPROX THE BLURDG IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THIS THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SLIGHT HEIGHT FALLS ARE FORECAST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES...IN TANDEM WITH A COLD FRONT. THERE IS SOME
QUESTION REGARDING TIMING OF THE FROPA...LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY HAVE CHANCE POPS
IN THE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME FRAME...AND WE CAN FINE TUNE THE
TIMING AS WE GET CLOSER.

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE
AREA BY THE WEEKEND...FAVORING A COOLER/DRIER AIR MASS. FORECAST
REFLECTS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

VFR CONDS PREVAIL AT ALL SITES. FOG MAY FORM AFTR MDNGT..AND HV
3SM IN SVRL OF THE TAFS..BUT GIVEN TEMPS AT SVRL SITES HAD A POST
5 PM MAX AM UNCERTAIN THIS LATE DAY WARMTH WAS FIGURED INTO THE MDLS.

EXPECT FOG/STRATUS EARLY TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS.
ONCE THIS MSTR BURNS OFF...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THE BALANCE OF
TUESDAY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS IN THE AFTN...BUT CVRG
ISSUES REDUCE CONFIDENCE IF AIRFIELDS WL BE IMPACTED. A REPEAT
PERFORMANCE POSSIBLE WED...AND AGAIN THU. GREATEST CVRG ASSOCD
WITH CFP LT THU.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY WNDS 10-15 KT OVRNGT.

SLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUE-WED UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THU SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. THERES A DAILY TSRA RISK...
SPCLY IN THE AFTN/EVE.

SOUTHERLY CHANNELLING UP THE BAY COULD BRING MARGINAL SCA
CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENINGS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL. WILL HAVE TO WATCH SOUTHERLY
FLOW DURING THE MID-WEEK AS IT MAY SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN
DEPARTURES AGAIN.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...HTS

000
FXUS61 KRNK 202344
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
744 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL DRIFT EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT MONDAY...

UPPER LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF CWA THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AFTERNOON CONVECTION
HAD MORE LESS ENDED BEFORE STORMS BEGAN REDEVELOPING THIS EVENING
OVER CENTRAL CWA ALONG SOME TYPE OF BOUNDARY..PSBL OUTFLOW FROM
CHAOTIC COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL BE MONITORING NEXT FEW HRS FOR
MAINLY FOR HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE RUNOFF PROBLEMS AND PSBLY
MARGINAL SEVERE.

ALL MODELS HAVE THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT. PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION LOWER FROM WEST
TO EAST OVERNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND. AREAS OF FOG WILL
FORM OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN HAS
FALLEN THIS EVENING. PLAYED LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO ADJMAV WITH
MILD READINGS FROM THE MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 60S IN
THE SOUTHEAST.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY WITH A
FOCUS ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. LEANED POPS TOWARDS GFS WITH BEST
CHANCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE
TO WARMER ADJMAV WITH READINGS FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO NEAR 90 DEGREES IN THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY...TO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES BY LATE THURSDAY.  ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO PASS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THURSDAY.

SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY WITH FRONTAL SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY. H85 TEMPS OF +15
TO +17 DEG C ARE EXPECTED UP UNTIL THURSDAYS FROPA...SUPPORTING
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S AND NIGHT-TIME LOWS IN THE 50S/60S. AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY...TEMPS COOL DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DELIVERING A GOOD INTRUSION COOLER AIR BY
12Z FRIDAY WITH H85 TEMPS SLIPPING TO +5C.  THE UPPER TROUGH IS FCST
TO SLIDE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY WITH COOL NORTHWEST FLOW
PROGGED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MID ATLANTIC.

COOLER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALSO SUGGESTS THE AIR WILL BE DRY...THUS
HAVE REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIP FOR THE WEEKEND.  THAT SAID...AS
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVHD SATURDAY AND ROLLS OFF THE EAST COAST
SUNDAY...MOISTURE COULD SNEAK BACK IN THE PICTURE AS EARLY AS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.  ATTM...WILL GO WITH AN OPTIMISTIC FCST AND JUST
ADVERTISE INCREASING CLOUDS FOR SUNDAY...AND HOLD OFF ON NEXT
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS UNTIL MONDAY.

BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS LOOK COOL WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS
IN THE 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE PIEDMONT. IF
WINDS DECOUPLE AND SKIES REMAIN CLEAR...SOME OF THE SHELTERED
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS MAY SLIP INTO THE UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT MONDAY...

STILL EXPECTING THAT CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING TONIGHT. EXPECTED AREAS OF MVFR/IFR FOG TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN...MOST OF TAF SITES
HAVE HAD AT LEAST SOME RAIN TODAY..MOST AT KROA AND KBLF.

THE REGION STAYS IN A WARM...MOIST AIRMASS THROUGH THURSDAY.
PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES IS LIKELY EACH NIGHT AND EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THERE WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

NEXT FRONT APPROACHES ON THURSDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS/STORMS
DEVELOPING. HIGH PRESSURE AND BETTER FLYING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...KK/PC
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...KK/PC

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 202320
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
720 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULL A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
TO AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
PULSE-TYPE CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO WANE THIS EVENING. THERE IS
STILL ENOUGH SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT AND PLENTY OF SUBTROPICAL SFC
MOISTURE AVAILABLE (IT IS BEING PULLED IN ON SW FLOW FROM THE
ATLANTIC) TO KEEP LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING. PRECIP WILL THEN TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT.
SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS WILL STAY ABOVE 5 KT OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL
HAMPER ANY CHANCE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID
NIGHT AHEAD AS TEMPERATURES ONLY DROP INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S
REGIONWIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE LESS COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WEAKENS. THERE WILL STILL BE
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND GENERALLY HAVE 30 TO 40 PERCENT
POPS ON TUESDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...
DECREASING FOR THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. GUIDANCE ON
WEDNESDAY IS STILL UNCLEAR AS TO WHERE TO FOCUS PRECIPITATION AND
KEPT 30 PERCENT POPS AREA WIDE THAT AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

ON THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT OVER
THE PLAINS STATES APPROACHES THE AREA. HAVE 40-50 PERCENT POPS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXCEPT 30 PERCENT IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST.

NAM HAS LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THIS PERIOD
AND IS CLOSE TO EURO. LOWERED READINGS A FEW DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGHS LOW TO MID 80S TUESDAY...MID TO UPR 80S
WEDNESDAY AND AROUND 80 ON THURSDAY. READINGS WILL BE A BIT COOLER
NEAR THE COAST. LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPR 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH COLD FRONT ACROSS THE RGN THU
NITE AND OFFSHORE FRI AM. WILL KEEP THE CHC POPS WITH THIS
FEATURE. LINGERING MSTR NOW PROGGED TO SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH THE
BNDRY FRI SO WILL ONLY CARRY CHC POPS ALONG THE COAST FRI MORN.
LOWS THU NITE IN THE 60S.

CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW FRI AFTN THRU
THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. UPSHOT WILL BE A DRY PRD WITH
TMPS A FEW DEGREES BLO NRML.

STILL WRM FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE U70S-L80S. CAA KICKS IN FRI NITE.
LOWS THRU WEEKEND IN THE 50S. HIGHS EACH DAY L-M70S...WRMG INTO THE
M-U70S MON.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SCT SHWRS CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTN AND
EVENG. EXPECT VFR VSBYS WITH CIGS BORDERING ON VFR/MVFR OUTSIDE OF
THE RAIN. THUNDER IS POSSIBLE AS WELL BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENUF TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS ATTM. SHWRS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENG...WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED OVRNGT THRU ERLY TUE. IFR LESS LIKELY AT
ORF/ECG WHERE ONLY MVRF CONDS WERE INCLUDED IN THE TAFS.

MAINLY VFR IN THE TUE TO THU TIME FRAME...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLD/SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS BOTH TUE/WED. MORE WIDESPREAD SHWR/TSTM
ACTIVITY EXPECTED THU ALONG/AHD OF NEXT CDFNT...WHICH MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA THU/THU NIGHT. HI PRES RETURNS FRI INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
NO FLAGS EXPECTED AS SRLY FLOW (AOB 15KTS WITH SEAS 2-4 FT) CONTS
ARND HIGH PRS OFF THE COAST THROUGH MID WEEK. PRS GRDNT INCRS LATE
WED AHEAD OF APPRCHG CDFRNT PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA THURS NITE.
ANY SCA CDNTNS THAT DVLP WILL BE MARGINAL AHEAD OF SAID FRNT. WNA
CONTS TO FORECAST SEAS ARND 5 FT OUT NEAR 20 NM STARTING LATE WED
BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINE THIS FAR OUT FOR NOW.

WNDS SHFT INTO NW THEN N BEHIND FRNT FRI. NXT THREAT FOR SCA CNDTNS
COMES FRI NITE/ERLY SAT WITH A DECENT CAA SURGE XPCTD.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...LSA
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...MAS/WRS
MARINE...MPR

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 202000
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
400 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND INTO THE CAROLINAS WILL PROVIDE
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY NIGHT.
BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM CANADA PROVIDING DRY
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A DIFFUSE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS OVER WESTERN VIRGINIA AND THE
CAROLINAS. THIS FEATURE WILL DISSIPATE BY TUESDAY AS A STRONGER
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NATIONS MID SECTION.

IN ASSOCIATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CLUSTERS
OF THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHERN PORTIONS. WITH WEAK DYNAMICS BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER
ONE AND A HALF INCHES...THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE LOCALLY VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL. BASED ON RECENT TRENDS...THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS BUT BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA.

HAVE LIKELY POPS OVER ALL BUT FAR NORTHERN AREAS EARLY THIS EVENING
...SLOWLY LOWERING OVERNIGHT. POPS DECREASE FROM THE WEST TOWARD
MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW NIGHTS
WITH READINGS IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE LESS COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WEAKENS. THERE WILL STILL BE
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND GENERALLY HAVE 30 TO 40 PERCENT
POPS ON TUESDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...
DECREASING FOR THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. GUIDANCE ON
WEDNESDAY IS STILL UNCLEAR AS TO WHERE TO FOCUS PRECIPITATION AND
KEPT 30 PERCENT POPS AREA WIDE THAT AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

ON THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT OVER
THE PLAINS STATES APPROACHES THE AREA. HAVE 40-50 PERCENT POPS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXCEPT 30 PERCENT IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST.

NAM HAS LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THIS PERIOD
AND IS CLOSE TO EURO. LOWERED READINGS A FEW DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGHS LOW TO MID 80S TUESDAY...MID TO UPR 80S
WEDNESDAY AND AROUND 80 ON THURSDAY. READINGS WILL BE A BIT COOLER
NEAR THE COAST. LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPR 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LMODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH COLD FRONT ACROSS THE RGN THU NITE AND
OFFSHORE FRI AM. WILL KEEP THE CHC POPS WITH THIS FEATURE.
LINGERING MSTR NOW PROGGED TO SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH THE BNDRY FRI
SO WILL ONLY CARRY CHC POPS ALONG THE COAST FRI MORN. LOWS THU
NITE IN THE 60S.

CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW FRI AFTRN THRU
THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. UPSHOT WILL BE A DRY PRD WITH TMPS
A FEW DEGREES BLO NRML.

STILL WRM FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE U70S-L80S. CAA KICKS IN FRI NITE.
LOWS THRU WEEKEND IN THE 50S. HIGHS EACH DAY L-M70S...WRMG INTO THE
M-U70S MON.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SCTD SHWRS CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTN AND
EVENG. EXPECT VFR VSBYS WITH CIGS BORDERING ON VFR/MVFR OUTSIDE OF
THE RAIN. THUNDER IS POSSIBLE AS WELL BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENUF TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS ATTM. SHWRS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENG...WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED OVRNGT THRU ERLY TUE. IFR LESS LIKELY AT
ORF/ECG WHERE ONLY MVRF CONDS WERE INCLUDED IN THE TAFS.

MAINLY VFR IN THE TUE TO THU TIME FRAME...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLD/SCTD SHWRS AND TSTMS BOTH TUE/WED. MORE WIDESPREAD SHWR/TSTM
ACTIVITY EXPECTED THU ALG/AHD OF NEXT CDFNT...WHICH MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA THU/THU NIGHT. HI PRES RETURNS FRI INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
NO FLAGS EXPECTED AS SRLY FLOW (AOB 15KTS WITH SEAS 2-4 FT) CONTS
ARND HIGH PRS OFF THE COAST THROUGH MID WEEK. PRS GRDNT INCRS LATE
WED AHEAD OF APPRCHG CDFRNT PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA THURS NITE.
ANY SCA CDNTNS THAT DVLP WILL BE MARGINAL AHEAD OF SAID FRNT. WNA
CONTS TO FCTS SEAS ARND 5 FT OUT NR 20 NM STARTING LATE WED BUT WILL
HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINE THIS FAR OUT FOR NOW.

WNDS SHFT INTO NW THEN N BEHIND FRNT FRI. NXT THREAT FOR SCA CNDTNS
COMES FRI NITE / ERLY SAT WITH A DECENT CAA SURGE XPCTD.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LSA
NEAR TERM...LSA
SHORT TERM...LSA
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...MAS/WRS
MARINE...MPR

000
FXUS61 KRNK 201949
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
349 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. A
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...

UPPER LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF CWA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. KFCX 88D LOOP SHOWED
AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST WEAKENING AS THEY
MOVE SOUTH AND CONVECTION FIRING UP ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS. WITH ANY SLOW MOVING OR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR LOCAL FLOODING
PROBLEMS OVER A SATURATED GROUND. THE 06Z RNKWRFARW CAPTURED THE
EMPHASIS OF CONVECTION IN THE EAST BEST THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
SHAPED POPS TOWARDS THIS SOLUTION. ALL MODELS HAD THE BULK OF
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT. PROBABILITY
OF PRECIPITATION LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS TREND. AREAS OF FOG WILL FORM OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN THIS EVENING. PLAYED LOW
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO ADJMAV WITH MILD READINGS FROM THE MID 50S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY WITH A
FOCUS ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. LEANED POPS TOWARDS GFS WITH BEST
CHANCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE
TO WARMER ADJMAV WITH READINGS FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO NEAR 90 DEGREES IN THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY...TO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES BY LATE THURSDAY.  ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO PASS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THURSDAY.

SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY WITH FRONTAL SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY. H85 TEMPS OF +15
TO +17 DEG C ARE EXPECTED UP UNTIL THURSDAYS FROPA...SUPPORTING
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S AND NIGHT-TIME LOWS IN THE 50S/60S. AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY...TEMPS COOL DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DELIVERING A GOOD INTRUSION COOLER AIR BY
12Z FRIDAY WITH H85 TEMPS SLIPPING TO +5C.  THE UPPER TROUGH IS FCST
TO SLIDE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY WITH COOL NORTHWEST FLOW
PROGGED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MID ATLANTIC.

COOLER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALSO SUGGESTS THE AIR WILL BE DRY...THUS
HAVE REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIP FOR THE WEEKEND.  THAT SAID...AS
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVHD SATURDAY AND ROLLS OFF THE EAST COAST
SUNDAY...MOISTURE COULD SNEAK BACK IN THE PICTURE AS EARLY AS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.  ATTM...WILL GO WITH AN OPTIMISTIC FCST AND JUST
ADVERTISE INCREASING CLOUDS FOR SUNDAY...AND HOLD OFF ON NEXT
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS UNTIL MONDAY.

BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS LOOK COOL WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS
IN THE 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE PIEDMONT. IF
WINDS DECOUPLE AND SKIES REMAIN CLEAR...SOME OF THE SHELTERED
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS MAY SLIP INTO THE UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT MONDAY...

A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS
WILL HAVE VERY HEAVY RAIN...AS WELL AS IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES. SHAPED FORECAST TOWARDS THE 06Z WRFARW ARW WHICH
CAPTURE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS THE BEST. KFCX 88D LOOP SHOWED
STORMS IN THE WEST LWB TO TNB MOVING SOUTH AND LINE NEAR DAN
INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TRAVELING EAST. BELIEVE THAT
CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING TONIGHT.
EXPECTED AREAS OF MVFR/IFR FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY
WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN.

THE REGION STAYS IN A WARM...MOIST AIRMASS THROUGH THURSDAY.
PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES IS LIKELY EACH NIGHT AND EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THERE WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

NEXT FRONT APPROACHES ON THURSDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS/STORMS
DEVELOPING. HIGH PRESSURE AND BETTER FLYING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...AMS/KK

000
FXUS61 KLWX 201907
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
307 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL PROVIDE A SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS.
MEANWHILE...AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION. A
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. COOLER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CWFA WITHIN WARM SECTOR TAFTN...BUT LOTSA CLDCVR HAS HELD TEMPS
DOWN...WHICH IN TURN HAS LIMITED AMT IN INSTBY GENERATED. CUTOFF
H5 TROF AXIS UNDER L/WV RDGG HAS ASSISTED IN FOCUSING SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY ACRS WVA/WRN VA/CENTRL NC. SINCE THESE STORMS ARE W/IN A
RDG AXIS...FWD MOTION HAS BEEN SLOW...AND MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY
LKLY WONT REACH CWFA E OF THE SHEN VLY. GREATER INSTBY ALSO CAN BE
FOUND IN SERN VA/ERN NC DUE TO MORE AMPLE HEATING...AND SOME OF
THESE STORMS WL APPROACH SRN MD AND THE NRN NECK OF VA. POPS HIEST
IN THESE TWO AREAS. AM HANGING ONTO CHC POPS ELSW TIL ABT SUNSET.
PWAT ALMOST UP TO 1.5 INCHES...SO HVY RAIN SHUD BE THE BIGGEST
THREAT.

ONCE DAYTIME HEATING WANES...THINK SHRA/TSRA CVRG SHUD DIMINISH.
AM RUNNING WITH A DRY FCST OVNGT. ITS PSBL THAT THERE MAY BE A
STRAY STORM OR TWO...BUT CANNOT PINPOINT WHERE...AND WUD RATHER
NOT BLANKET SMALL POPS OVER A LARGE AREA. INSTEAD...THE NEARLY
SATD LLVLS SHUD LEAD TO MORE LOW CLDS/FOG FOR THE OVNGT HRS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MID-ATLANTIC WILL RESIDE IN A WARM SECTOR DURING THE MID-WEEK. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A WARM UP TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH MAXIMA IN
THE MID 80S. IF THERE IS MORE SUNSHINE...THEN MAXIMA COULD EVEN
REACH UPPER 80S IN SOME LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY MORNING MAY START OFF WITH SOME FOG/STRATUS...BUT CLOUDS
SHOULD BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTERNOON. GREATER
INSTBY IN PLACE AND H5 TROF AXIS SHUD STILL BE LINGERING...MUCH
LIKE SSIDE VA/NC TAFTN. PLUS...THERE WL BE TRRN BASED
CIRCULATIONS AND DIURNAL HEATING BNDRYS. AM THEREFORE
UNCOMFORTABLE WITH A DRY FCST...AND HV ADDED CHC POPS CENTERED
UPON TIME OF PEAK HTG TUE AFTN. AM TAKING THAT ROUND EWD IN THE
EVNG INVOF H5 AXIS.

THE MID LVL RDG AXIS BREAKS DOWN WED WHICH WL PROVIDE ITS OWN TSRA
SUPPORT. WED AFTN POPS SEEM ADEQUATE IN THE 30-40 PCT RANGE...BUT
HV INCREASE EVNG CVRG AS HGTS FALL. NWRN CORNER OF CWFA TOUCHING
SPC DAY 3 SLGT RISK...AND ISOL SVR CRVG TO APPROX THE BLURDG IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THIS THREAT.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SLIGHT HEIGHT FALLS ARE FORECAST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES...IN TANDEM WITH A COLD FRONT. THERE IS SOME
QUESTION REGARDING TIMING OF THE FROPA...LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY HAVE CHANCE POPS
IN THE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME FRAME...AND WE CAN FINE TUNE THE
TIMING AS WE GET CLOSER.

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE
AREA BY THE WEEKEND...FAVORING A COOLER/DRIER AIR MASS. FORECAST
REFLECTS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CIGS HV LIFTED...AND VFR CONDS PREVAIL AT ALL SITES XCPT MTN.
TSRA/SHRA CHCS THRU SUNSET SLIM...BUT NONZERO. UNLKLY THAT A CELL
WL AFFECT AN AIRFIELD...BUT CHO WL BE NEAREST AIRPORT.

EXPECT FOG/STRATUS EARLY TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS.
ONCE THIS MSTR BURNS OFF...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THE BALANCE OF
TUESDAY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS IN THE AFTN...BUT CVRG
ISSUES REDUCE CONFIDENCE IF AIRFIELDS WL BE IMPACTED. A REPEAT
PERFORMANCE POSSIBLE WED...AND AGAIN THU. GREATEST CVRG ASSOCD
WITH CFP LT THU.
&&

.MARINE...
SLY WNDS TAFTN...BUT AOB 10 KT. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHRA/TSRA...
SPCLY IN THE MID BAY/LWR PTMC WHICH WUD PRODUCE LCLLY HIER WNDS.

SLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUE-WED UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THU SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. THERES A DAILY TSRA RISK...
SPCLY IN THE AFTN/EVE.

SOUTHERLY CHANNELLING UP THE BAY COULD BRING MARGINAL SCA
CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENINGS.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL. WILL HAVE TO WATCH SOUTHERLY
FLOW DURING THE MID-WEEK AS IT MAY SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN
DEPARTURES AGAIN.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201800
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
200 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT HAS PUSHED NORTH OF THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
ANCHORED WELL OFF THE COAST. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY...WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO OUR WEST ACROSS WESTERN VIRGINIA AND
WEST VIRGINIA AS DEPICTED WELL BY ENHANCED IR IMAGERY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS EXTENDING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA SOUTH
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA INTO EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA. DESPITE A
NORTHEASTWARD CELL MOVEMENT...SHOWERS HAVE TENDED TO DISSIPATE OVER
SRN VIRGINIA. AROUND 14Z...CONVECTION BEGAN TO INCREASE OVER FROM
SOUTHAMPTON COUNTY VA INTO NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
WITH LIKELY POPS IN PLACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 80 ACROSS
THE CWA EXCEPT LOW TO MID 70S NEAR THE COAST.

PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTINUES IN THE 1.5 TO 1.8 INCH RANGE SO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE PSBL. THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD
AS OMEGA IS WEAK BELOW 10K FT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY MONDAY EVENING
DIMINISHING TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL
BE PSBL ON THE EASTERN SHORE AND THE NORTHERN NECK. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPR 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CONDITIONS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO MONDAY WILL PERSIST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. S/SSW WINDS WILL DRAW WARM AND MOIST AIR FROM THE
SOUTH...AND COUPLED WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY...WILL CREATE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL WANE EACH EVENING AS THE INSTABILITY
DECREASES. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPR
80S IN MOST AREAS WITH UPR 70S TO LWR 80S NEAR THE COAST AND OVER
THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF WED NGT WITH A CHC FOR RAIN...MAINLY
WEST OF I-95...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LVL TROF AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRNT. S/SW FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPR 60S. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THU/THU NGT WITH STILL A
30-40% CHC FOR SHWRS/TSTMS. DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE IS ABUNDANT HOWEVER
FORCING IS A LIMITING FACTOR DUE TO A LACK OF WAA AND MOST S/W
ENERGY STAYING OFF TO THE NORTH. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO SPEED UP
THE TIMING OF THE FRNT...WITH THE FROPA NOW EXPECTED TO BE SOMETIME
LATE THU/THU NGT. HIGHS THU IN THE LO TO MID 80S. BEHIND THE FRNT FRI
INTO THE WEEKEND...DIMINISHING CHCS FOR RAIN AND SLGTLY LWR TEMPS
(BUT STILL AROUND SEASONAL NORMS) WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LWR
80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SCTD SHWRS CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTN AND
EVENG. EXPECT VFR VSBYS WITH CIGS BORDERING ON VFR/MVFR OUTSIDE OF
THE RAIN. THUNDER IS POSSIBLE AS WELL BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENUF TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS ATTM. SHWRS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENG...WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED OVRNGT THRU ERLY TUE. IFR LESS LIKELY AT
ORF/ECG WHERE ONLY MVRF CONDS WERE INCLUDED IN THE TAFS.

MAINLY VFR IN THE TUE TO THU TIME FRAME...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLD/SCTD SHWRS AND TSTMS BOTH TUE/WED. MORE WIDESPREAD SHWR/TSTM
ACTIVITY EXPECTED THU ALG/AHD OF NEXT CDFNT...WHICH MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA THU/THU NIGHT. HI PRES RETURNS FRI INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
S/SSE WINDS CONTINUE ALL AREAS THIS MORNING...AS HIGH PRESSURE SFC
AND ALOFT PREVAILS OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS GENERAL PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. WINDS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KT
RANGE ON THE BAY...AND AROUND 15KT ON THE OCEAN DURING MOST OF THIS
PERIOD. THUS...NO SCAS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY. CURRENT SCA
FOR SEAS ON THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT
4 AM. SEAS NEAR 20 NM WILL CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH 5
FEET...ESPECIALLY ON THE NRN COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER...A SLOW
SUBSIDING TREND IS EXPECTED. SCTD SHWRS/TSTMS EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH A SLOW DECREASE IN COVERAGE NORTHERN AREAS ON
TUESDAY.

NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO/ACROSS THE AREA IN THE THU/FRI
TIME FRAME. LATEST GFS SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE 2 FRONTAL
PASSAGES...ONE LATE THURSDAY...THE SECOND STRONGER ONE LATE FRIDAY.
SHWRS/TSTMS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY BOTH FRONTS. WINDS BEHIND SECOND
BOUNDARY LIKELY TO REACH/EXCEED SCA CRITERIA FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER
FROPA.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB/LSA
NEAR TERM...DAP/LSA
SHORT TERM...DAP/LSA
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...MAS/WRS
MARINE...WRS

000
FXUS61 KRNK 201741
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
141 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. A
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 927 AM EDT MONDAY...
THIS MORNING 8AM/12Z RNK SOUNDING SHOWED PLENTY OF MOISTURE UP TO
600 MB WITH A PWAT AT 1.27 INCHES. KFCX 88D LOOP DISPLAYED STORMS
IN THE WEST DROPPING SOUTH...WHILE STORMS IN THE EAST PIVOTING
NORTHEAST. MOVEMENT OF THE CONVECTION BEING SHAPED BY THE
SHORTWAVE ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER SLICING EASTWARD. WITH SLOW
MOVING OR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WE WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR LOCAL FLOODING PROBLEMS OVER A SATURATED GROUND.
ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDING LATEST RADAR TRENDS. MODIFIED TEMPERATURES
AND DEWPOINTS ACCORDING TO LATEST OBS AND MODEL TRENDS. LOOKING AT
THE RNK WRFARW AND NAM FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WILL
OCCUR MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF I77 THEN THIS AFTERNOON MODELS
SHIFTS MAIN DEVELOPMENT IN OUR EAST. MORE ADJUSTMENTS LATER.


AS OF 435 AM EDT MONDAY...

BASED ON WATER VAPOR LOOP AND LATEST RADAR TRENDS...CENTER OF
SHORT WAVE WAS NEAR THE VA/TN/NC BORDER. A MAJORITY OF THE MODELS
HAVE THIS FEATURE JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AT 00Z/8PM
TONIGHT. STARTING OUT WITH A LOT OF CLOUDS TODAY BUT AS WINDS
ALOFT SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST THEN WEST SHOULD GETS SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS THE UPSLOPE
WEAKENS.

RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTED A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON. THE 00Z
LOCAL WRF FORECAST A CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER THE SOUTHWEST COUNTY
WARNING AREA. DIRECTION STORMS WILL MOVE WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE
SHORT WAVE TRACKS. STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE SHOULD MOVE TO THE SOUTH. ALL MODELS HAD THE BULK OF
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT. PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS TREND. 850 MB WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST THEN WEST
TODAY...BRINING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION AND ENHANCING THE LIFT
WITH THAT WARM AIR ADVECTION.

ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN A QUICK WARMUP TODAY.
LEANED TOWARD MET GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL REMAIN MILD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 346 AM EDT SATURDAY...

SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A PATCH OF DRIER AIR AT H7 BOTH OF THESE DAYS SHOULD
LIMIT COVERAGE...BUT FOR THE STORMS THAT DO PUNCH THROUGH THIS
LAYER...THEY COULD BE STRONG. H85 TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT NEAR +17C ON TUESDAY SUGGESTS HIGHS NEAR 90F IN THE
CITIES...SO WENT WITH THE WARMER MAV MOS TEMPS. SEEMS AS THOUGH NAM
MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE LESS INSTABILITY BECAUSE THE HIGH TEMPS ARE
MUCH COOLER THAN H85 ADJUSTMENTS WOULD SUGGEST. STRONGER STORMS ALSO
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS COLD FRONT ARRIVES...BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY TO LIMIT MORE NUMEROUS AND
STRONGEST STORMS TO THE VA/NC PIEDMONT. LATEST 0Z ECMWF DELIVERING A
GOOD CHUNK OF COOLER AIR BY 12Z FRIDAY ACROSS SE WEST VA WITH H85
TEMPS SLIPPING TO +5C...WHICH IS MUCH COLDER THAN THE REST OF HE
MODEL SUITE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT SUNDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL SPIN AROUND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM...PLENTY
OF MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION.

PIECES OF ENERGY WILL SPIRAL EASTWARD FROM THE MAIN SYSTEM AND
COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO CREATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HPC CONTINUES TO FAVOR A SLOWER TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO EXIT OUR AREA FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ECMWF
REMAINS FASTER THAN GFS WITH TIMING OF COLD FRONT. DO NOT BELIEVE
THE SFC LOW THAT DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST ON GFS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY AND SLIDE EAST ON
SUNDAY.

COOLING TREND EXPECT FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 70 DEGREES IN THE WEST TO NEAR 80 DEGREES
IN THE SOUTHEAST. SATURDAY HIGHS ONLY REACH THE MID 60S ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. HIGHS FOR
SUNDAY WILL WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE MID 60S IN THE WEST
TO THE MID 70S IN THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT MONDAY...

A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS
WILL HAVE VERY HEAVY RAIN...AS WELL AS IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES. SHAPED FORECAST TOWARDS THE 06Z WRFARW ARW WHICH
CAPTURE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS THE BEST. KFCX 88D LOOP SHOWED
STORMS IN THE WEST LWB TO TNB MOVING SOUTH AND LINE NEAR DAN
INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TRAVELING EAST. BELIEVE THAT
CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING TONIGHT.
EXPECTED AREAS OF MVFR/IFR FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY
WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN.

THE REGION STAYS IN A WARM...MOIST AIRMASS THROUGH THURSDAY.
PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES IS LIKELY EACH NIGHT AND EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THERE WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

NEXT FRONT APPROACHES ON THURSDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS/STORMS
DEVELOPING. HIGH PRESSURE AND BETTER FLYING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...AMS/KK

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201431
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1031 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT HAS PUSHED NORTH OF THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
ANCHORED WELL OFF THE COAST. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY...WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO OUR WEST ACROSS WESTERN VIRGINIA AND
WEST VIRGINIA AS DEPICTED WELL BY ENHANCED IR IMAGERY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS EXTENDING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA SOUTH
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA INTO EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA. DESPITE A
NORTHEASTWARD CELL MOVEMENT...SHOWERS HAVE TENDED TO DISSIPATE OVER
SRN VIRGINIA. AROUND 14Z...CONVECTION BEGAN TO INCREASE OVER FROM
SOUTHAMPTON COUNTY VA INTO NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
WITH LIKELY POPS IN PLACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 80 ACROSS
THE CWA EXCEPT LOW TO MID 70S NEAR THE COAST.

PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTINUES IN THE 1.5 TO 1.8 INCH RANGE SO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE PSBL. THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD
AS OMEGA IS WEAK BELOW 10K FT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY MONDAY EVENING
DIMINISHING TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL
BE PSBL ON THE EASTERN SHORE AND THE NORTHERN NECK. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPR 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CONDITIONS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO MONDAY WILL PERSIST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. S/SSW WINDS WILL DRAW WARM AND MOIST AIR FROM THE
SOUTH...AND COUPLED WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY...WILL CREATE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL WANE EACH EVENING AS THE INSTABILITY
DECREASES. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPR
80S IN MOST AREAS WITH UPR 70S TO LWR 80S NEAR THE COAST AND OVER
THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF WED NGT WITH A CHC FOR RAIN...MAINLY
WEST OF I-95...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LVL TROF AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRNT. S/SW FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPR 60S. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THU/THU NGT WITH STILL A
30-40% CHC FOR SHWRS/TSTMS. DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE IS ABUNDANT HOWEVER
FORCING IS A LIMITING FACTOR DUE TO A LACK OF WAA AND MOST S/W
ENERGY STAYING OFF TO THE NORTH. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO SPEED UP
THE TIMING OF THE FRNT...WITH THE FROPA NOW EXPECTED TO BE SOMETIME
LATE THU/THU NGT. HIGHS THU IN THE LO TO MID 80S. BEHIND THE FRNT FRI
INTO THE WEEKEND...DIMINISHING CHCS FOR RAIN AND SLGTLY LWR TEMPS
(BUT STILL AROUND SEASONAL NORMS) WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LWR
80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING FROM A KRWI TO KXSA
LINE WESTWARD. THINK THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 14Z-15Z...AIDED BY
AREA OF SHOWERS LIFTING NEWD OUT OF CNTRL NC. ALSO...IFR/LIFR HAS
PERSISTED SINCE 06Z AT KSBY...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY
13Z. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED OVERNIGHT.

FOR THE MOST PART...EXPECT TODAY TO BE VFR. HOWEVER...INCREASED
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED TODAY SHOULD ALLOW MORE TSTMS TO DVLP
EAST OF I-95...AFFECTING KPHF/KORF/KECG DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. TEMPO GROUP ADDED TO TAF. HEAVIER SHWRS/TSTMS WILL CAUSE
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS. THINK TSTM POTENTIAL LESS AT KSBY AND...DUE
TO MORNING SHWR ACTIVITY...AT KRIC. EXPECT TONIGHT TO HAVE MAINLY
VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR IFR TO DVLP
AFTER 07Z.

MAINLY VFR IN THE TUE TO THU TIME FRAME...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLD/SCTD SHWRS AND TSTMS BOTH TUE/WED. MORE WIDESPREAD SHWR/TSTM
ACTIVITY EXPECTED THU ALG/AHD OF NEXT CDFNT...WHICH MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA THU/THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
S/SSE WINDS CONTINUE ALL AREAS THIS MORNING...AS HIGH PRESSURE SFC
AND ALOFT PREVAILS OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS GENERAL PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. WINDS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KT
RANGE ON THE BAY...AND AROUND 15KT ON THE OCEAN DURING MOST OF THIS
PERIOD. THUS...NO SCAS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY. CURRENT SCA
FOR SEAS ON THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT
4 AM. SEAS NEAR 20 NM WILL CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH 5
FEET...ESPECIALLY ON THE NRN COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER...A SLOW
SUBSIDING TREND IS EXPECTED. SCTD SHWRS/TSTMS EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH A SLOW DECREASE IN COVERAGE NORTHERN AREAS ON
TUESDAY.

NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO/ACROSS THE AREA IN THE THU/FRI
TIME FRAME. LATEST GFS SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE 2 FRONTAL
PASSAGES...ONE LATE THURSDAY...THE SECOND STRONGER ONE LATE FRIDAY.
SHWRS/TSTMS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY BOTH FRONTS. WINDS BEHIND SECOND
BOUNDARY LIKELY TO REACH/EXCEED SCA CRITERIA FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER
FROPA.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB/LSA
NEAR TERM...DAP/LSA
SHORT TERM...DAP/LSA
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...WRS

000
FXUS61 KLWX 201427
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1027 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC
WILL PROVIDE A SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
BRINGING WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

WK WMFNT ALONG OR NEAR THE PTMC RIVER THIS MRNG. LWX RAOB MOIST
BUT NOT SATD. LIKE SNDGS FM SIMLR SECTOR YDA...ITS ALSO MARGINALLY
UNSTBL. CNVCTV TEMPS UP IN THE UPR 70S...WHICH PER LAMP WUD BE
REACHABLE. IN ADDITION...AN UPR LOW MVG THRU THE TN VLY TWD WRN
VA/SRN WVA CAN BE A TRIGGERING MECHANISM.

THEREFORE...XPCT SHRA/TSRA TO DVLP TAFTN IN THE WARM AMS. PWAT
ARND 1.40 IN AND CAPE VALUES 500-1000 J/KG SUGGESTS THAT HVY
RAINERS WL BE THE BIGGER CONCERN...NOT WND GUSTS. IN FACT...SHEAR
LESS THAN 10 KT. HELD ONTO GLIMMER OF LKLY POPS FOR CENTRL VA AND
UPR PTMC HIGHLANDS...OTRW CVRG WL BE SCT AT BEST. RADAR DEPICTION
WL BE PRTLY CONTROLLED BY MESOSCALE FEATURES SUCH AS THE DIFF
HEATING BNDRY PRESENT IN SHEN VLY/PTMC HIGHLANDS ATTM.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS
HOLDING IN THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS. PLENTY OF MOISTURE UNDERNEATH THE
NOCTURNAL INVERSION WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MID-ATLANTIC WILL RESIDE IN A WARM SECTOR DURING THE MID-WEEK. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A WARM UP TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH MAXIMA IN
THE MID 80S. IF THERE IS MORE SUNSHINE...THEN MAXIMA COULD EVEN
REACH UPPER 80S IN SOME LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY MORNING MAY START OFF WITH SOME FOG/STRATUS...BUT CLOUDS
SHOULD BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW
MOISTURE IN PLACE...AND SOME INSTABILITY AS WELL HOWEVER AM HAVING
TROUBLE FINDING ANY GOOD FORCING/FOCUSING MECHANISMS FOR CONVECTION
THEREFORE CONTINUE TO FAVOR A DRY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY WITH ONLY
ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.

AIR MASS REMAINS THE SAME ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS HINT AT A BETTER
CHANCE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION SO HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SLIGHT HEIGHT FALLS ARE FORECAST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES...IN TANDEM WITH A COLD FRONT. THERE IS SOME
QUESTION REGARDING TIMING OF THE FROPA...LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY HAVE CHANCE POPS
IN THE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME FRAME...AND WE CAN FINE TUNE THE
TIMING AS WE GET CLOSER.

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE
AREA BY THE WEEKEND...FAVORING A COOLER/DRIER AIR MASS. FORECAST
REFLECTS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR CONDS REMAIN ACROSS DCA/IAD/BWI. AT LEAST MVFR ELSW. MAY
INSOLATION WL ERODE LLVL MSTR...PERMITTING CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED...MAINLY THIS TAFTN AND EVENING. HWVR...LOW CONFIDENCE ON
DIRECT IMPACT FOR ANY AIRFIELD.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG/STRATUS EARLY TUESDAY...
PARTICULARLY IF SOME OVERNIGHT CLEARING TAKES PLACE AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS. BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS ONLY LOW-MODERATE ON
OCCURRENCE ATTM. VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THE BALANCE OF TUESDAY.
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
SHRA/TSRA REMAIN POSSIBLE UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AS A WMFNT MVS
NWD. HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MID WEEK UNTIL A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK SWITCHING WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST. SOUTHERLY FLOW CHANNELLING UP THE BAY COULD BRING
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS UP THE BAY PARTICULARLY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENINGS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL EARLY THIS MORNING. SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS TODAY AND ANOMALIES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE. HOWEVER...THE HIGH TIDE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
THE LOWER OF THE TWO. WILL HAVE TO WATCH SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE
MID-WEEK AS IT MAY SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN DEPARTURES AGAIN. BUT
CBOFS KEEPS WATER LEVELS BELOW MINOR THRESHOLDS THROUGH HIGH TIDES
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL/BPP
NEAR TERM...HTS/BJL
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...BPP
AVIATION...HTS/BJL/BPP
MARINE...HTS/BJL/BPP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL/BPP

000
FXUS61 KRNK 201327
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
927 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. A
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS MORNING 8AM/12Z RNK SOUNDING SHOWED PLENTY OF MOISTURE UP TO
600 MB WITH A PWAT AT 1.27 INCHES. WFCX 88D LOOP DISPLAYED STORMS
IN THE WEST DROPPING SOUTH...WHILE STORMS IN THE EAST PIVOTING
NORTHEAST. MOVEMENT OF THE CONVECTION BEING SHAPED BY THE
SHORTWAVE ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER SLICING EASTWARD. WITH SLOW
MOVING OR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WE WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR LOCAL FLOODING PROBLEMS OVER A SATURDATED GROUND.
ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDING LATEST RADAR TRENDS. MODIFIED TEMPERATURES
AND DEWPOINTS ACCORDING TO LATEST OBS AND MODEL TRENDS. LOOKING AT
THE RNK WRFARW AND NAM FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WILL
OCCUR MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF I77 THEN THIS AFTERNOON MODELS
SHIFTS MAIN DEVELOPEMENT IN OUR EAST. MORE ADJUSTMENTS LATER.


AS OF 435 AM EDT MONDAY...

BASED ON WATER VAPOR LOOP AND LATEST RADAR TRENDS...CENTER OF
SHORT WAVE WAS NEAR THE VA/TN/NC BORDER. A MAJORITY OF THE MODELS
HAVE THIS FEATURE JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AT 00Z/8PM
TONIGHT. STARTING OUT WITH A LOT OF CLOUDS TODAY BUT AS WINDS
ALOFT SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST THEN WEST SHOULD GETS SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS THE UPSLOPE
WEAKENS.

RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTED A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON. THE 00Z
LOCAL WRF FORECAST A CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER THE SOUTHWEST COUNTY
WARNING AREA. DIRECTION STORMS WILL MOVE WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE
SHORT WAVE TRACKS. STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE SHOULD MOVE TO THE SOUTH. ALL MODELS HAD THE BULK OF
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT. PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS TREND. 850 MB WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST THEN WEST
TODAY...BRINING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION AND ENHANCING THE LIFT
WITH THAT WARM AIR ADVECTION.

ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN A QUICK WARMUP TODAY.
LEANED TOWARD MET GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL REMAIN MILD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 346 AM EDT SATURDAY...

SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A PATCH OF DRIER AIR AT H7 BOTH OF THESE DAYS SHOULD
LIMIT COVERAGE...BUT FOR THE STORMS THAT DO PUNCH THROUGH THIS
LAYER...THEY COULD BE STRONG. H85 TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT NEAR +17C ON TUESDAY SUGGESTS HIGHS NEAR 90F IN THE
CITIES...SO WENT WITH THE WARMER MAV MOS TEMPS. SEEMS AS THOUGH NAM
MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE LESS INSTABILITY BECAUSE THE HIGH TEMPS ARE
MUCH COOLER THAN H85 ADJUSTMENTS WOULD SUGGEST. STRONGER STORMS ALSO
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS COLD FRONT ARRIVES...BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY TO LIMIT MORE NUMEROUS AND
STRONGEST STORMS TO THE VA/NC PIEDMONT. LATEST 0Z ECMWF DELIVERING A
GOOD CHUNK OF COOLER AIR BY 12Z FRIDAY ACROSS SE WEST VA WITH H85
TEMPS SLIPPING TO +5C...WHICH IS MUCH COLDER THAN THE REST OF HE
MODEL SUITE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT SUNDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL SPIN AROUND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM...PLENTY
OF MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION.

PIECES OF ENERGY WILL SPIRAL EASTWARD FROM THE MAIN SYSTEM AND
COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO CREATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HPC CONTINUES TO FAVOR A SLOWER TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO EXIT OUR AREA FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ECMWF
REMAINS FASTER THAN GFS WITH TIMING OF COLD FRONT. DO NOT BELIEVE
THE SFC LOW THAT DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST ON GFS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY AND SLIDE EAST ON
SUNDAY.

COOLING TREND EXPECT FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 70 DEGREES IN THE WEST TO NEAR 80 DEGREES
IN THE SOUTHEAST. SATURDAY HIGHS ONLY REACH THE MID 60S ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. HIGHS FOR
SUNDAY WILL WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE MID 60S IN THE WEST
TO THE MID 70S IN THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT MONDAY...

LOCAL RADAR SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
JUST WEST OF BLF EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS PRECIPITATION WAS MOVING
SSE AND MAY REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE BLF AIRPORT THROUGH 14Z/10AM.
EXPECT IFR TO LIFR STRATUS AND FOG TO GRADUALLY LIFT THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE...HOWEVER SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHWEST TODAY...ENDING THE UPSLOPE
FLOW. EXPECT TAF SITES (BLF/ROA/LWB/BCB/DAN/LYH) TO BE MVFR BY
1PM.

A SHORT WAVE SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA TODAY WILL AGAIN TRIGGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL HAVE
VERY HEAVY RAIN...AS WELL AS IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.

THE REGION STAYS IN A WARM...MOIST AIRMASS THROUGH THURSDAY.
PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES IS LIKELY EACH NIGHT AND EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THERE WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

NEXT FRONT APPROACHES ON THURSDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS/STORMS
DEVELOPING. HIGH PRESSURE AND BETTER FLYING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...AMS/PM