Home > Products > State Listing > Virginia Data
Latest:
 AFDRNK |  AFDLWX |  AFDAKQ |
  [top]

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010209
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1009 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING. A
COLD FRONT STALLS OUT OVER THE AREA MONDAY ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

$$

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LATEST MSAS SHOWING A SFC HIGH EAST OF LONG ISLAND WITH A WARM
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE SERN STATES FROM SC NW THRU TN/KY/IL TO A
SFC LOW IN MO. MEANWHILE...A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN IVOF I95 CORRRIDOR. MODELS PROGG
THE WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD TO A POSITION ACROSS SRN VA BY
12Z SNAKING ITS WAY ALONG THE MTS TO THE LOW THAT MOVES EAST INTO
OHIO. RADAR TRENDS AND SFC OBS INDICATION LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NWRN
HALF OF FA AHEAD OF THE APRCHG WARM FRONT. HIGH RES DATA CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT THE BEST CHCS FOR MEASURABLE PCPN WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ACROSS NWRN HALF OF FA ALONG THE NORTHWARD LIFTING TROF/FRNT THRU
THE OVERNIGHT HRS QUICKLY TAPERING OFF TO SLGHT CHC ACROSS SERN
COASTAL AREAS. THUS HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE NW WITH LOW
CHC POPS ACROSS THE SE. LOWERED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ALONG THE
COAST PER CRNT OBS. TEMPS THERE SHOULD STDY OUT NEXT FEW HRS AND
MAY EVEN RISE A BIT ACROSS SRN AREAS AS THE WARM FRNT APPRCHS.
LOWS NEAR THE CURRENT TEMPS FROM THE U40S-M50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA OF TRIMMING BACK POPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY. THE LATEST NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THAT THE
BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL VA AND POINTS
WEST...WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
GENERALLY NORTH OF RICHMOND. THEN BY AFTERNOON...THE WARM FRONT
GENERALLY MOVES NORTH OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE EASTERN SHORE. WITH THIS...THE AREA WILL SEE THE MOISTURE
SCOUR OUT WITH PERHAPS SOME SUNSHINE BREAKING OUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS HOWEVER...AS THE INCREASED SUNSHINE MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME POCKETS OF INSTABILITY WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE. IF THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP...SEVERE CHANCES ARE FAIRLY
MINIMAL DUE TO WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /ALTHOUGH WIND FIELDS DO
STRENGTHEN WITH TIME/. THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS ALSO SUGGEST
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN VA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SPREADING EASTWARD DURING THE LATE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS. AS
SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE OF THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTH AND
PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

ALL OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL STALL OUT OVER CENTRAL VA ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE...WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR DRYING ACROSS THE AREA. MONDAY MAY END UP BEING
A MOSTLY DRY DAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE FRONT OVERHEAD. WITH THAT
SAID...WILL GENERALLY FOCUS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWER/STORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN VA AND NC WHERE THERE WILL BE THE BEST
INSTABILITY. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND SHOWERS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON MONDAY WITH MANY AREAS SEEING TEMPS
IN THE LOW-MID 80S...EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST WHERE 70S WILL PREVAIL.
COOLER ON TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES FOR RAIN AND NEAR TO
SLGTLY BLO NORMAL TEMPS. FOR TUE NGT/WED...A FRNTAL BNDRY SLOWLY
SAGS S INTO THE CAROLINAS...AS LO PRES DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRNT.
CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE 12Z ECMWF WHICH KEEPS THE FRNT CLOSER TO THE
FA WHILE THE 12Z GFS PUSHES THE FRNT FARTHER S. CHANCES OF RAIN
RANGE FM 20% NW AREAS TO 50% SE AREAS. LO TEMPS TUE NGT IN THE
LO/MID 50S WITH HI TEMPS WED IN THE LO/MID 70S. CHC POPS CONTINUE
THU AND FRI WITH AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS. HI TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S ON AVG EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NE-E FLOW CONTINUES THIS EVENING WITH CEILINGS VARIABLY RANGING
FROM MVFR TO VFR. HIGH PRES OVER THE NE U.S. IS RIDGING DOWN THE
MID ATLC COAST AND PROVIDING SOME CLEARING OVER EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA. LOW PRES OVER THE MIDWEST WITH A WARM FRONT OVER THE
TN VALLEY IS PRODUCING RAIN THAT WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL VA AND TO
THE EASTERN SHORE TONIGHT AND INTO SUN MORNING. CEILINGS FOR
RIC/SBY AND PHF LIKELY TO REDUCE TO IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AS RAIN INCREASES. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CEILINGS WILL BE
SLOWER TO LOWER OVER ORF/ECG AS THE RIDGE IS SLOWER TO MOVE OUT.
BUT THE WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH THRU DURING THE EARLY
MORNING AND BRING RAIN AND IFR CONDS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH AND WARMER AND MORE
UNSTABLE AIR MOVES IN. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVE THRU THE AREA ON MONDAY KEEPING THE AREA
UNDER A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRNTAL BNDRY WELL S OF THE
LOCAL AREA WITH HI PRES CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND RIDGING DOWN THE
MID ATLC CST. RESULTING NE FLOW CONTINUES THIS AFTN/EVENG WITH SEAS
UP TO ~5 FT EXPECTED. THE SUB-SCA NE FLOW THIS EVENG BCMS SELY THEN
SLY SUN AS SFC LO PRES MOVES THRU THE OH VALLEY. THIS LO WILL DROP A
COLD FRNT INTO THE LOCAL AREA MON...WHICH REMAINS STALLED IN THE
VICINITY THRU MID WEEK. ONLY CHANCE FOR SCA CONDS WILL BE WITH 5 FT
SEAS OVER NRN CSTL WTRS SUN NGT/MON MORNG...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
HEADLINES ATTM WITH SOME CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR/MRD
NEAR TERM...MRD
SHORT TERM...MRD
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JEF/JAO
MARINE...MAS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010209
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1009 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING. A
COLD FRONT STALLS OUT OVER THE AREA MONDAY ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

$$

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LATEST MSAS SHOWING A SFC HIGH EAST OF LONG ISLAND WITH A WARM
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE SERN STATES FROM SC NW THRU TN/KY/IL TO A
SFC LOW IN MO. MEANWHILE...A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN IVOF I95 CORRRIDOR. MODELS PROGG
THE WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD TO A POSITION ACROSS SRN VA BY
12Z SNAKING ITS WAY ALONG THE MTS TO THE LOW THAT MOVES EAST INTO
OHIO. RADAR TRENDS AND SFC OBS INDICATION LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NWRN
HALF OF FA AHEAD OF THE APRCHG WARM FRONT. HIGH RES DATA CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT THE BEST CHCS FOR MEASURABLE PCPN WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ACROSS NWRN HALF OF FA ALONG THE NORTHWARD LIFTING TROF/FRNT THRU
THE OVERNIGHT HRS QUICKLY TAPERING OFF TO SLGHT CHC ACROSS SERN
COASTAL AREAS. THUS HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE NW WITH LOW
CHC POPS ACROSS THE SE. LOWERED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ALONG THE
COAST PER CRNT OBS. TEMPS THERE SHOULD STDY OUT NEXT FEW HRS AND
MAY EVEN RISE A BIT ACROSS SRN AREAS AS THE WARM FRNT APPRCHS.
LOWS NEAR THE CURRENT TEMPS FROM THE U40S-M50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA OF TRIMMING BACK POPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY. THE LATEST NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THAT THE
BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL VA AND POINTS
WEST...WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
GENERALLY NORTH OF RICHMOND. THEN BY AFTERNOON...THE WARM FRONT
GENERALLY MOVES NORTH OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE EASTERN SHORE. WITH THIS...THE AREA WILL SEE THE MOISTURE
SCOUR OUT WITH PERHAPS SOME SUNSHINE BREAKING OUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS HOWEVER...AS THE INCREASED SUNSHINE MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME POCKETS OF INSTABILITY WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE. IF THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP...SEVERE CHANCES ARE FAIRLY
MINIMAL DUE TO WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /ALTHOUGH WIND FIELDS DO
STRENGTHEN WITH TIME/. THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS ALSO SUGGEST
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN VA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SPREADING EASTWARD DURING THE LATE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS. AS
SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE OF THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTH AND
PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

ALL OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL STALL OUT OVER CENTRAL VA ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE...WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR DRYING ACROSS THE AREA. MONDAY MAY END UP BEING
A MOSTLY DRY DAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE FRONT OVERHEAD. WITH THAT
SAID...WILL GENERALLY FOCUS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWER/STORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN VA AND NC WHERE THERE WILL BE THE BEST
INSTABILITY. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND SHOWERS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON MONDAY WITH MANY AREAS SEEING TEMPS
IN THE LOW-MID 80S...EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST WHERE 70S WILL PREVAIL.
COOLER ON TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES FOR RAIN AND NEAR TO
SLGTLY BLO NORMAL TEMPS. FOR TUE NGT/WED...A FRNTAL BNDRY SLOWLY
SAGS S INTO THE CAROLINAS...AS LO PRES DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRNT.
CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE 12Z ECMWF WHICH KEEPS THE FRNT CLOSER TO THE
FA WHILE THE 12Z GFS PUSHES THE FRNT FARTHER S. CHANCES OF RAIN
RANGE FM 20% NW AREAS TO 50% SE AREAS. LO TEMPS TUE NGT IN THE
LO/MID 50S WITH HI TEMPS WED IN THE LO/MID 70S. CHC POPS CONTINUE
THU AND FRI WITH AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS. HI TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S ON AVG EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NE-E FLOW CONTINUES THIS EVENING WITH CEILINGS VARIABLY RANGING
FROM MVFR TO VFR. HIGH PRES OVER THE NE U.S. IS RIDGING DOWN THE
MID ATLC COAST AND PROVIDING SOME CLEARING OVER EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA. LOW PRES OVER THE MIDWEST WITH A WARM FRONT OVER THE
TN VALLEY IS PRODUCING RAIN THAT WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL VA AND TO
THE EASTERN SHORE TONIGHT AND INTO SUN MORNING. CEILINGS FOR
RIC/SBY AND PHF LIKELY TO REDUCE TO IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AS RAIN INCREASES. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CEILINGS WILL BE
SLOWER TO LOWER OVER ORF/ECG AS THE RIDGE IS SLOWER TO MOVE OUT.
BUT THE WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH THRU DURING THE EARLY
MORNING AND BRING RAIN AND IFR CONDS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH AND WARMER AND MORE
UNSTABLE AIR MOVES IN. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVE THRU THE AREA ON MONDAY KEEPING THE AREA
UNDER A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRNTAL BNDRY WELL S OF THE
LOCAL AREA WITH HI PRES CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND RIDGING DOWN THE
MID ATLC CST. RESULTING NE FLOW CONTINUES THIS AFTN/EVENG WITH SEAS
UP TO ~5 FT EXPECTED. THE SUB-SCA NE FLOW THIS EVENG BCMS SELY THEN
SLY SUN AS SFC LO PRES MOVES THRU THE OH VALLEY. THIS LO WILL DROP A
COLD FRNT INTO THE LOCAL AREA MON...WHICH REMAINS STALLED IN THE
VICINITY THRU MID WEEK. ONLY CHANCE FOR SCA CONDS WILL BE WITH 5 FT
SEAS OVER NRN CSTL WTRS SUN NGT/MON MORNG...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
HEADLINES ATTM WITH SOME CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR/MRD
NEAR TERM...MRD
SHORT TERM...MRD
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JEF/JAO
MARINE...MAS



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KRNK 010102
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
902 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL MAINTAIN A COOL WEDGE ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH
LATE. THIS WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY MIDWEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 840 PM EDT SATURDAY...

DEEPER MOISTURE HAS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY INCREASE FROM SW TO NE
THIS EVENING AS BACKING ALOFT OVER THE WEDGE HAS RESULTED IN
PROGRESSIVELY WETTER SOUNDINGS PER PWATS NOW OVER AN INCH. HOWEVER
THE LOW LEVEL CAD REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED WITH THE EVENING RNK
RAOB SHOWING EASTERLY FLOW UP TO ABOVE 9H WHILE GUIDANCE INDICATES
LITTLE EROSION UNTIL LATE AND MAINLY ACROSS THE SW PERIMETER. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT BANDS OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING TO THE
SOUTH WITHIN MORE INSTABILITY...AND THEN RIDING OVER THE COOL
POOL IN ELEVATED FASHION OVERNIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH MORE ISENTROPIC
LIFT NATURE LIGHT RAIN FARTHER NORTH. LATEST HRRR SUPPORTS THIS
TREND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION WEAKENING BEFORE
RAMPING UP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WHEN THE WARM FRONT TO
THE SOUTH GETS CLOSER AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ENHANCES. APPEARS
COULD BE A COUPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSRA
POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH/WEST AS WARMING ALOFT DEEPENS A BIT BUT
STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DEGREE OF ANY PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN.

THUS WONT HOIST ANY FLOOD WATCHES ESPCLY GIVEN LIGHTER TOTALS SO
FAR AND LITTLE OUT EAST WHERE THE DEEPER WEDGE CONTINUES TO LIMIT
PRECIP. OTRW HAVE AGAIN TRENDED POPS LOWER EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
TO INIT BEFORE INCREASING TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL OVERNIGHT AS
DEEPER MOISTURE FINALLY NUDGES EAST. FOG ALSO REMAINS AN ISSUE
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE BUT WITH RAIN INCREASING EXPECTING SOME
IMPROVEMENT FROM SW TO NE. THUS STAYING WITH THE GOING SPS FOR
AREAS OF DENSE FOG WITHOUT HEADLINES FOR NOW. LOWERED TEMPS A
LITTLE MORE GIVEN CONTINUED LOW LEVEL COOL ADVECTION AND LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE THROUGH THE COLUMN WHICH HAS COOLED MOST BACK INTO
THE CHILLY/DAMP LOW/MID 50S THIS EVENING.


UPDATE AS OF 620 PM EDT SATURDAY...

WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE MEASURABLE RAINFALL MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR
NW AND EXTREME SW SECTIONS...UPDATED TO LOWER POPS BACK TO CHANCE
ELSEWHERE FOR A COUPLE HOURS INTO THIS EVENING. APPEARS MOST
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL OCCUR OVER THE NW NC MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS
WHERE CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN A MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT TO THE
SW PUSHES INTO/OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS WARM ADVECTION HAS ALSO CAUSED CLOUD BASES TO
LOWER ALLOWING FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG ALONG PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. THIS TREND MAY DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH AS WARM
AIR ALOFT DEEPENS OVER THE WEDGE AND AIDED BY SATURATED LOW LEVELS
PER RAINFALL. ALSO LOWERING LOW TEMPS A FEW DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS
SINCE CLOSE TO CURRENT FORECAST VALUES OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH NOT
EXPECTING VALUES TO FALL MUCH MORE AS RAINFALL INCREASES.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...

STRONG WEDGE IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON WILL HOLD AS WE HEAD THRU THE
NIGHT. MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE WILL
SET UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING
WITH RAINFALL OVERSPREADING THE MOUNTAINS. LOOKING AT OVERNIGHT WE
START TO SEE MODELS EMPHASIZE STRONG LOW LVL CONVERGENCE WITH UPPER
DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...WITH ENHANCED RAINFALL AMOUNTS
IN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. ATTM...LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST MOST OF THE
AREA WILL SEE RAIN OVERNIGHT WITH ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH SETTING UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. WILL NOT ISSUE A
FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL BEAR MONITORING TO SEE IF ANY
DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND TRAINS ACROSS THIS AREA LATE TONIGHT.

WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED FLOOD THREAT IN THE HWO.

AS FAR AS THUNDERSTORMS...AM KEEPING THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST
THROUGH TONIGHT GIVEN LACK OF INSTABILITY AND WEDGE. AS WE HEAD TO
SUNDAY WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO CLEAR SKIES IN THE NORTH AND EAST BUT
MODELS FAVOR QUICKER EROSION OF THE WEDGE. WILL BE SLOWER...THEN
INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. SPC CONTINUES TO
HIGHLIGHT MARGINAL RISK FOR MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS INTO THE PIEDMONTS OF NC/VA. QUESTION WILL BE IF
SUNSHINE CAN BREAK OUT. AT THE MOMENT SEEMS BEST CHANCE OF THIS WILL
BE IN WV/FAR SW VA AND ACROSS THE NW NC PIEDMONT...BUT THINK CLOUDS
WILL BE AROUND MOST OF THE DAY.

WITH FLOW TURNING SSW BY AFTERNOON WENT CLOSE TO MOS ON HIGHS...BUT
COULD SEE IT COOLER IN LYH TO HSP. MOST WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SATURDAY...

A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TOWARD NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT SUNDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
WILL BE DECREASING DURING THE DAY AND SHOULD SEE SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS LATER IN THE DAY. EXPECT
MILD TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY RANGING FROM NEAR 70 NORTHWEST
TO LOW 80S SOUTHEAST AS COOLING IS MODEST BEHIND IT..H85 TEMPS
DROPPING ONLY A FEW DEGREES BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS BOUNDARY MAKES
ONLY SLIGHT PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE MONDAY LEAVING ENOUGH
CLOUDS TO HOLD TEMPS UP SOMEWHAT HIGHER MONDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY
UPPER 40S TO MID-50S. THE SAME FRONT WILL BECOME NEAR STATIONARY
ALONG COAST AND BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AS SEVERAL WEAK WAVES TRAVERSE NORTHEAST
ALONG IT. MODELS DIFFER IN THE PLACEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY STRENGTH
OF PERTURBATIONS ALONG IT WHICH WILL HAVE A SUBSTANTIAL IMPACT ON
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON TUESDAY. WPC AND GFS SOLUTIONS CURRENTLY
FURTHER SOUTHEAST THAN EARLIER CMC OR ECMWF RUNS WHICH BOTH BRING
CONSIDERABLY MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS INTO OUR CWA. WENT WITH A MODEL
BLEND RETAINING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA BUT THE HIGHEST
OVER THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST SATURDAY...

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY
WEDNESDAY WITH ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN PIEDMONT DURING THE DAY BUT STILL
LINGERING POPS ACROSS OUR CWA BUT MAINLY SOUTHEAST. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS WEDNESDAY WITH PARTIAL CLEARING DURING
IN THE DAY ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST. MEANWHILE ANOTHER FRONT OVER THE
UPPER PLAINS BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH BEGINS TO AMPLIFY
SHARPLY.BOTH GFS AND EURO SHOW UPPER LOW CLOSING OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS BY LATE THURSDAY WITH EXACT POSITION UNCERTAIN AND LIKELY TO
HAVE CONSEQUENCES FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER BY THAT TIME. 00Z EURO IS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH DEEP COMPLEX SURFACE LOW MORE OR LESS MERGING
WITH THE EXISTING COASTAL SYSTEM AND ACTUALLY BACKING IN TOWARD THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. GFS/CMC NOT QUITE AS FAR SOUTH AND DEEP WITH
UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE REFLECTION WHICH SEEMS MORE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY PLAUSIBLE BUT WENT WITH BLEND TO ACCOUNT FOR
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY. EITHER WAY A PERSISTENT DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL EXIST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH COOL TEMPS AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH
60 OVER THE MOUNTAINS...CLOSE TO 10F BELOW NORMAL. SLOWLY RISING
HEIGHTS SATURDAY WILL ALLOW FOR SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 740 PM EDT SATURDAY...

SURFACE WEDGE WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD FAST IN THE EASTERN PART OF
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE
STRONG WITHIN THESE WINDS. EXPECT LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH COVERAGE GREATEST IN THE WEST. CIGS WILL LOWER TO
INTO THE LIFR/IFR RANGE WITH VSBYS MAINLY IFR/MVFR. THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL WINDS ABOVE THE WEDGE WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW HOURS OF LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING...WITH ONLY
MINOR IMPROVEMENTS TO FLIGHT CATEGORIES. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
START TO BECOME MORE SHOWERY IN THE WEST BY THE LATE MORNING.

CIGS/VSBYS IMPROVING TO MVFR/VFR BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WEDGE
ERODES. SUNDAY AFTERNOON BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION...SOME POSSIBLY STRONG TO SEVERE AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY
TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WARM/UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
SITUATION APPEARS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED THURSDAY
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT PERHAPS MORE ACTIVITY NORTH-WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE THIS TIME AROUND THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED SUNDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS GA/SC/NC SUN NIGHT-
TUE...LIKELY PROLONGING SUB-VFR CIGS AND POTENTIALLY LEAVING SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. FOR THE MID AND LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK...A DEEP UPPER
LOW IS EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION...WHICH WILL LEAVE THE REGION
WITH VARIABLE CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...PC
LONG TERM...PC
AVIATION...DS/WP



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KLWX 010014
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
814 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL MOVE
FURTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...AND A
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FROM THE ALLEGHENY
HIGHLANDS INTO NORTH CAROLINA. WARM MOIST AIR WILL OVERRUN THE
COOL AIR BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...RESULTING IN A SOAKING RAIN
TONIGHT. ONE-HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED. RAIN TAPERS OFF
TO -SHRA BY 18Z SUNDAY AS DRY SLOT MOVES IN. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH
INSTABILITY THAT COULD KICK T-STORMS AS CLOUDS SHOULD HANG TOUGH
AND AN INVERSION REMAINS IN PLACE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TOWARD CENTRAL
VIRGINIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS SUN NIGHT AS MOIST
SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVAILS AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS PA.
ASSOCIATED CDFNT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA AROUND 12Z MON WITH DRY
WESTERLY FLOW TAKING OVER. MUCH WARMER THAN IT HAS BEEN RECENTLY
WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW 80S. ANOTHER UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA MON NIGHT WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE
LATE MON NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUE BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE ERN GRT LKS WED-THU. MUCH
COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVING WILL RESULT IN INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE T-STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH
IMPROVING WX CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE TERMINALS. MODERATE RAINFALL RATES ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED TO BETWEEN 2 AND 4 MILES
AND BANDS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL. MVFR CIGS ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS
THIS EVENING WILL DROP TO IFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT. IFR CIGS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS RAIN SLOWLY TAPERS OFF. CIGS
MAY IMPROVE A BIT SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT LOW IFR/SUBIFR CIGS WILL
RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...BUT ANY THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE MINIMAL DUE TO MARINE
AIR IN PLACE. FOG POTENTIAL AS WELL SUNDAY NIGHT WITH VSBYS BELOW
1 MILE POSSIBLE. IFR/SUBIFR CIGS AND VSBYS EARLY MONDAY MORNING
WILL IMPROVE...AND IT WILL TURN OUT DRY AND BREEZY THANKS TO A
WESTERLY FLOW.

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. RAIN AND SUBVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS
MAY RETURN TOWARD THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH SUN NIGHT THEN SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
MON UNDER WESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE ONSHORE FLOW HAS CAUSED TIDAL ANOMALIES AROUND ONE FOOT ABOVE
NORMAL. WATER LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE SUNDAY WILL BE THE
HIGHER OF THE TWO. MINOR FLOODING FOR SENSITIVE AREAS IS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR ANNAPOLIS AND STRAITS POINT.

ELEVATED WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...BUT ANOMALIES SHOULD FALL CLOSER TO NORMAL LATER MONDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...BJL/LFR
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...BJL/MSE/LFR
MARINE...BJL/MSE/LFR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL/LFR




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010003
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
803 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR
A WARM FRONT TO MOVE NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT
STALLS OUT OVER THE AREA MONDAY ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

$$

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND SFC OBS SHOWING SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
QUICKLY COMING IN FROM THE W AND SW AND COVERING A BIT MORE REAL
ESTATE THAN WHAT THE GRIDS HAVE SHOWN. THUS...HAVE ADJUSTED THE
GRIDS A BIT FOR THE QUICKER PCPN RETURN THIS EVENING. PCPN RATHER
LIGHT WITH NOT MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS EXPECTED.

THIS ALL AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
FA SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH RES DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW BEST SUPPORT
FOR MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE WRN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE FA SO THROUGH THE NIGHT SO HAVE KEPT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
POPS ACROSS THE EXTREME NWRN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
HIGHEST POPS AFTER MIDNITE. SERN VA / NE NC MAY ACTUALLY END UP
BEING DRY UNTIL LATE TONIGHT AND HAVE KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS IN THIS
AREA TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...A SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT ONCE AGAIN WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MID 50S. MAY BE A FEW UPPER 40S
ONCE AGAIN IN THE MD EASTERN SHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA OF TRIMMING BACK POPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY. THE LATEST NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THAT THE
BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL VA AND POINTS
WEST...WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
GENERALLY NORTH OF RICHMOND. THEN BY AFTERNOON...THE WARM FRONT
GENERALLY MOVES NORTH OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE EASTERN SHORE. WITH THIS...THE AREA WILL SEE THE MOISTURE
SCOUR OUT WITH PERHAPS SOME SUNSHINE BREAKING OUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS HOWEVER...AS THE INCREASED SUNSHINE MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME POCKETS OF INSTABILITY WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE. IF THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP...SEVERE CHANCES ARE FAIRLY
MINIMAL DUE TO WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /ALTHOUGH WIND FIELDS DO
STRENGTHEN WITH TIME/. THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS ALSO SUGGEST
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN VA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SPREADING EASTWARD DURING THE LATE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS. AS
SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE OF THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTH AND
PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

ALL OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL STALL OUT OVER CENTRAL VA ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE...WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR DRYING ACROSS THE AREA. MONDAY MAY END UP BEING
A MOSTLY DRY DAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE FRONT OVERHEAD. WITH THAT
SAID...WILL GENERALLY FOCUS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWER/STORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN VA AND NC WHERE THERE WILL BE THE BEST
INSTABILITY. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND SHOWERS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON MONDAY WITH MANY AREAS SEEING TEMPS
IN THE LOW-MID 80S...EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST WHERE 70S WILL PREVAIL.
COOLER ON TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES FOR RAIN AND NEAR TO
SLGTLY BLO NORMAL TEMPS. FOR TUE NGT/WED...A FRNTAL BNDRY SLOWLY
SAGS S INTO THE CAROLINAS...AS LO PRES DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRNT.
CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE 12Z ECMWF WHICH KEEPS THE FRNT CLOSER TO THE
FA WHILE THE 12Z GFS PUSHES THE FRNT FARTHER S. CHANCES OF RAIN
RANGE FM 20% NW AREAS TO 50% SE AREAS. LO TEMPS TUE NGT IN THE
LO/MID 50S WITH HI TEMPS WED IN THE LO/MID 70S. CHC POPS CONTINUE
THU AND FRI WITH AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS. HI TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S ON AVG EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NE-E FLOW CONTINUES THIS EVENING WITH CEILINGS VARIABLY RANGING
FROM MVFR TO VFR. HIGH PRES OVER THE NE U.S. IS RIDGING DOWN THE
MID ATLC COAST AND PROVIDING SOME CLEARING OVER EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA. LOW PRES OVER THE MIDWEST WITH A WARM FRONT OVER THE
TN VALLEY IS PRODUCING RAIN THAT WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL VA AND TO
THE EASTERN SHORE TONIGHT AND INTO SUN MORNING. CEILINGS FOR
RIC/SBY AND PHF LIKELY TO REDUCE TO IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AS RAIN INCREASES. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CEILINGS WILL BE
SLOWER TO LOWER OVER ORF/ECG AS THE RIDGE IS SLOWER TO MOVE OUT.
BUT THE WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH THRU DURING THE EARLY
MORNING AND BRING RAIN AND IFR CONDS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH AND WARMER AND MORE
UNSTABLE AIR MOVES IN. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVE THRU THE AREA ON MONDAY KEEPING THE AREA
UNDER A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRNTAL BNDRY WELL S OF THE
LOCAL AREA WITH HI PRES CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND RIDGING DOWN THE
MID ATLC CST. RESULTING NE FLOW CONTINUES THIS AFTN/EVENG WITH SEAS
UP TO ~5 FT EXPECTED. THE SUB-SCA NE FLOW THIS EVENG BCMS SELY THEN
SLY SUN AS SFC LO PRES MOVES THRU THE OH VALLEY. THIS LO WILL DROP A
COLD FRNT INTO THE LOCAL AREA MON...WHICH REMAINS STALLED IN THE
VICINITY THRU MID WEEK. ONLY CHANCE FOR SCA CONDS WILL BE WITH 5 FT
SEAS OVER NRN CSTL WTRS SUN NGT/MON MORNG...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
HEADLINES ATTM WITH SOME CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ654-
     656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR/MRD
NEAR TERM...MRD
SHORT TERM...MRD
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JEF/JAO
MARINE...MAS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 302343
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
743 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL MAINTAIN A COOL WEDGE ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH
LATE. THIS WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 620 PM EDT SATURDAY...

WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE MEASURABLE RAINFALL MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR
NW AND EXTREME SW SECTIONS...UPDATED TO LOWER POPS BACK TO CHANCE
ELSEWHERE FOR A COUPLE HOURS INTO THIS EVENING. APPEARS MOST
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL OCCUR OVER THE NW NC MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS
WHERE CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN A MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT TO THE
SW PUSHES INTO/OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS WARM ADVECTION HAS ALSO CAUSED CLOUD BASES TO
LOWER ALLOWING FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG ALONG PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. THIS TREND MAY DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH AS WARM
AIR ALOFT DEEPENS OVER THE WEDGE AND AIDED BY SATURATED LOW LEVELS
PER RAINFALL. ALSO LOWERING LOW TEMPS A FEW DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS
SINCE CLOSE TO CURRENT FORECAST VALUES OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH NOT
EXPECTING VALUES TO FALL MUCH MORE AS RAINFALL INCREASES.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...

STRONG WEDGE IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON WILL HOLD AS WE HEAD THRU THE
NIGHT. MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE WILL
SET UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING
WITH RAINFALL OVERSPREADING THE MOUNTAINS. LOOKING AT OVERNIGHT WE
START TO SEE MODELS EMPHASIZE STRONG LOW LVL CONVERGENCE WITH UPPER
DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...WITH ENHANCED RAINFALL AMOUNTS
IN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. ATTM...LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST MOST OF THE
AREA WILL SEE RAIN OVERNIGHT WITH ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH SETTING UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. WILL NOT ISSUE A
FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL BEAR MONITORING TO SEE IF ANY
DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND TRAINS ACROSS THIS AREA LATE TONIGHT.

WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED FLOOD THREAT IN THE HWO.

AS FAR AS THUNDERSTORMS...AM KEEPING THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST
THROUGH TONIGHT GIVEN LACK OF INSTABILITY AND WEDGE. AS WE HEAD TO
SUNDAY WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO CLEAR SKIES IN THE NORTH AND EAST BUT
MODELS FAVOR QUICKER EROSION OF THE WEDGE. WILL BE SLOWER...THEN
INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. SPC CONTINUES TO
HIGHLIGHT MARGINAL RISK FOR MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS INTO THE PIEDMONTS OF NC/VA. QUESTION WILL BE IF
SUNSHINE CAN BREAK OUT. AT THE MOMENT SEEMS BEST CHANCE OF THIS WILL
BE IN WV/FAR SW VA AND ACROSS THE NW NC PIEDMONT...BUT THINK CLOUDS
WILL BE AROUND MOST OF THE DAY.

WITH FLOW TURNING SSW BY AFTERNOON WENT CLOSE TO MOS ON HIGHS...BUT
COULD SEE IT COOLER IN LYH TO HSP. MOST WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SATURDAY...

A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TOWARD NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT SUNDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
WILL BE DECREASING DURING THE DAY AND SHOULD SEE SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS LATER IN THE DAY. EXPECT
MILD TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY RANGING FROM NEAR 70 NORTHWEST
TO LOW 80S SOUTHEAST AS COOLING IS MODEST BEHIND IT..H85 TEMPS
DROPPING ONLY A FEW DEGREES BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS BOUNDARY MAKES
ONLY SLIGHT PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE MONDAY LEAVING ENOUGH
CLOUDS TO HOLD TEMPS UP SOMEWHAT HIGHER MONDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY
UPPER 40S TO MID-50S. THE SAME FRONT WILL BECOME NEAR STATIONARY
ALONG COAST AND BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AS SEVERAL WEAK WAVES TRAVERSE NORTHEAST
ALONG IT. MODELS DIFFER IN THE PLACEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY STRENGTH
OF PERTURBATIONS ALONG IT WHICH WILL HAVE A SUBSTANTIAL IMPACT ON
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON TUESDAY. WPC AND GFS SOLUTIONS CURRENTLY
FURTHER SOUTHEAST THAN EARLIER CMC OR ECMWF RUNS WHICH BOTH BRING
CONSIDERABLY MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS INTO OUR CWA. WENT WITH A MODEL
BLEND RETAINING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA BUT THE HIGHEST
OVER THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST SATURDAY...

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY
WEDNESDAY WITH ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN PIEDMONT DURING THE DAY BUT STILL
LINGERING POPS ACROSS OUR CWA BUT MAINLY SOUTHEAST. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS WEDNESDAY WITH PARTIAL CLEARING DURING
IN THE DAY ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST. MEANWHILE ANOTHER FRONT OVER THE
UPPER PLAINS BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH BEGINS TO AMPLIFY
SHARPLY.BOTH GFS AND EURO SHOW UPPER LOW CLOSING OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS BY LATE THURSDAY WITH EXACT POSITION UNCERTAIN AND LIKELY TO
HAVE CONSEQUENCES FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER BY THAT TIME. 00Z EURO IS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH DEEP COMPLEX SURFACE LOW MORE OR LESS MERGING
WITH THE EXISTING COASTAL SYSTEM AND ACTUALLY BACKING IN TOWARD THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. GFS/CMC NOT QUITE AS FAR SOUTH AND DEEP WITH
UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE REFLECTION WHICH SEEMS MORE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY PLAUSIBLE BUT WENT WITH BLEND TO ACCOUNT FOR
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY. EITHER WAY A PERSISTENT DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL EXIST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH COOL TEMPS AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH
60 OVER THE MOUNTAINS...CLOSE TO 10F BELOW NORMAL. SLOWLY RISING
HEIGHTS SATURDAY WILL ALLOW FOR SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 740 PM EDT SATURDAY...

SURFACE WEDGE WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD FAST IN THE EASTERN PART OF
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE
STRONG WITHIN THESE WINDS. EXPECT LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH COVERAGE GREATEST IN THE WEST. CIGS WILL LOWER TO
INTO THE LIFR/IFR RANGE WITH VSBYS MAINLY IFR/MVFR. THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL WINDS ABOVE THE WEDGE WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW HOURS OF LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING...WITH ONLY
MINOR IMPROVEMENTS TO FLIGHT CATEGORIES. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
START TO BECOME MORE SHOWERY IN THE WEST BY THE LATE MORNING.

CIGS/VSBYS IMPROVING TO MVFR/VFR BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WEDGE
ERODES. SUNDAY AFTERNOON BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION...SOME POSSIBLY STRONG TO SEVERE AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY
TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WARM/UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
SITUATION APPEARS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED THURSDAY
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT PERHAPS MORE ACTIVITY NORTH-WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE THIS TIME AROUND THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED SUNDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS GA/SC/NC SUN NIGHT-
TUE...LIKELY PROLONGING SUB-VFR CIGS AND POTENTIALLY LEAVING SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. FOR THE MID AND LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK...A DEEP UPPER
LOW IS EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION...WHICH WILL LEAVE THE REGION
WITH VARIABLE CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...PC
LONG TERM...PC
AVIATION...DS/WP




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 302259
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
659 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR
A WARM FRONT TO MOVE NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT
STALLS OUT OVER THE AREA MONDAY ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

$$

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND SFC OBS SHOWING SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
QUICKLY COMING IN FROM THE W AND SW AND COVERING A BIT MORE REAL
ESTATE THAN WHAT THE GRIDS HAVE SHOWN. THUS...HAVE ADJUSTED THE
GRIDS A BIT FOR THE QUICKER PCPN RETURN THIS EVENING. PCPN RATHER
LIGHT WITH NOT MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS EXPECTED.

THIS ALL AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
FA SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH RES DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW BEST SUPPORT
FOR MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE WRN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE FA SO THROUGH THE NIGHT SO HAVE KEPT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
POPS ACROSS THE EXTREME NWRN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
HIGHEST POPS AFTER MIDNITE. SERN VA / NE NC MAY ACTUALLY END UP
BEING DRY UNTIL LATE TONIGHT AND HAVE KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS IN THIS
AREA TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...A SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT ONCE AGAIN WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MID 50S. MAY BE A FEW UPPER 40S
ONCE AGAIN IN THE MD EASTERN SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA OF TRIMMING BACK POPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY. THE LATEST NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THAT THE
BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL VA AND POINTS
WEST...WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
GENERALLY NORTH OF RICHMOND. THEN BY AFTERNOON...THE WARM FRONT
GENERALLY MOVES NORTH OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE EASTERN SHORE. WITH THIS...THE AREA WILL SEE THE MOISTURE
SCOUR OUT WITH PERHAPS SOME SUNSHINE BREAKING OUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS HOWEVER...AS THE INCREASED SUNSHINE MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME POCKETS OF INSTABILITY WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE. IF THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP...SEVERE CHANCES ARE FAIRLY
MINIMAL DUE TO WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /ALTHOUGH WIND FIELDS DO
STRENGTHEN WITH TIME/. THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS ALSO SUGGEST
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN VA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SPREADING EASTWARD DURING THE LATE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS. AS
SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE OF THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTH AND
PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

ALL OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL STALL OUT OVER CENTRAL VA ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE...WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR DRYING ACROSS THE AREA. MONDAY MAY END UP BEING
A MOSTLY DRY DAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE FRONT OVERHEAD. WITH THAT
SAID...WILL GENERALLY FOCUS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWER/STORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN VA AND NC WHERE THERE WILL BE THE BEST
INSTABILITY. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND SHOWERS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON MONDAY WITH MANY AREAS SEEING TEMPS
IN THE LOW-MID 80S...EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST WHERE 70S WILL PREVAIL.
COOLER ON TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES FOR RAIN AND NEAR TO
SLGTLY BLO NORMAL TEMPS. FOR TUE NGT/WED...A FRNTAL BNDRY SLOWLY
SAGS S INTO THE CAROLINAS...AS LO PRES DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRNT.
CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE 12Z ECMWF WHICH KEEPS THE FRNT CLOSER TO THE
FA WHILE THE 12Z GFS PUSHES THE FRNT FARTHER S. CHANCES OF RAIN
RANGE FM 20% NW AREAS TO 50% SE AREAS. LO TEMPS TUE NGT IN THE
LO/MID 50S WITH HI TEMPS WED IN THE LO/MID 70S. CHC POPS CONTINUE
THU AND FRI WITH AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS. HI TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S ON AVG EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEDGE PATTERN WITH GENERALLY NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW HAS KEPT
CONDITIONS MVFR THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS HAVE IMPROVED FROM IFR
EARLIER THIS MORNING AND SHOULD REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR
CEILINGS AROUND 3000-3500FT MAY OCCUR AT THE COASTAL TAF SITES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE RETURNING TO MVFR
AROUND 03Z. A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH AN
INCREASING CHC FOR -RA AT RIC AND SBY. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A RETURN
TO IFR CEILINGS AT RIC AROUND 06Z TONIGHT AS THE RAIN PUSHES IN
FROM THE WEST. THE IFR CEILINGS WILL BE SLOWER TO REACH THE COAST
HOLDING OFF UNTIL BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY. HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE
ACROSS CENTRAL VA AND MARYLAND. IFR CONDTIONS IN THE MORNING MAY
IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRNTAL BNDRY WELL S OF THE
LOCAL AREA WITH HI PRES CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND RIDGING DOWN THE
MID ATLC CST. RESULTING NE FLOW CONTINUES THIS AFTN/EVENG WITH SEAS
UP TO ~5 FT EXPECTED. THE SUB-SCA NE FLOW THIS EVENG BCMS SELY THEN
SLY SUN AS SFC LO PRES MOVES THRU THE OH VALLEY. THIS LO WILL DROP A
COLD FRNT INTO THE LOCAL AREA MON...WHICH REMAINS STALLED IN THE
VICINITY THRU MID WEEK. ONLY CHANCE FOR SCA CONDS WILL BE WITH 5 FT
SEAS OVER NRN CSTL WTRS SUN NGT/MON MORNG...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
HEADLINES ATTM WITH SOME CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ654-
     656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR/MRD
NEAR TERM...MRD/MPR
SHORT TERM...MRD
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JDM/JAO
MARINE...MAS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 302227 AAA
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
627 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL MAINTAIN A COOL WEDGE ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH
LATE. THIS WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 620 PM EDT SATURDAY...

WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE MEASURABLE RAINFALL MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR
NW AND EXTREME SW SECTIONS...UPDATED TO LOWER POPS BACK TO CHANCE
ELSEWHERE FOR A COUPLE HOURS INTO THIS EVENING. APPEARS MOST
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL OCCUR OVER THE NW NC MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS
WHERE CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN A MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT TO THE
SW PUSHES INTO/OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS WARM ADVECTION HAS ALSO CAUSED CLOUD BASES TO
LOWER ALLOWING FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG ALONG PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. THIS TREND MAY DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH AS WARM
AIR ALOFT DEEPENS OVER THE WEDGE AND AIDED BY SATURATED LOW LEVELS
PER RAINFALL. ALSO LOWERING LOW TEMPS A FEW DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS
SINCE CLOSE TO CURRENT FORECAST VALUES OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH NOT
EXPECTING VALUES TO FALL MUCH MORE AS RAINFALL INCREASES.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...

STRONG WEDGE IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON WILL HOLD AS WE HEAD THRU THE
NIGHT. MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE WILL
SET UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING
WITH RAINFALL OVERSPREADING THE MOUNTAINS. LOOKING AT OVERNIGHT WE
START TO SEE MODELS EMPHASIZE STRONG LOW LVL CONVERGENCE WITH UPPER
DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...WITH ENHANCED RAINFALL AMOUNTS
IN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. ATTM...LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST MOST OF THE
AREA WILL SEE RAIN OVERNIGHT WITH ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH SETTING UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. WILL NOT ISSUE A
FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL BEAR MONITORING TO SEE IF ANY
DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND TRAINS ACROSS THIS AREA LATE TONIGHT.

WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED FLOOD THREAT IN THE HWO.

AS FAR AS THUNDERSTORMS...AM KEEPING THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST
THROUGH TONIGHT GIVEN LACK OF INSTABILITY AND WEDGE. AS WE HEAD TO
SUNDAY WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO CLEAR SKIES IN THE NORTH AND EAST BUT
MODELS FAVOR QUICKER EROSION OF THE WEDGE. WILL BE SLOWER...THEN
INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. SPC CONTINUES TO
HIGHLIGHT MARGINAL RISK FOR MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS INTO THE PIEDMONTS OF NC/VA. QUESTION WILL BE IF
SUNSHINE CAN BREAK OUT. AT THE MOMENT SEEMS BEST CHANCE OF THIS WILL
BE IN WV/FAR SW VA AND ACROSS THE NW NC PIEDMONT...BUT THINK CLOUDS
WILL BE AROUND MOST OF THE DAY.

WITH FLOW TURNING SSW BY AFTERNOON WENT CLOSE TO MOS ON HIGHS...BUT
COULD SEE IT COOLER IN LYH TO HSP. MOST WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SATURDAY...

A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TOWARD NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT SUNDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
WILL BE DECREASING DURING THE DAY AND SHOULD SEE SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS LATER IN THE DAY. EXPECT
MILD TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY RANGING FROM NEAR 70 NORTHWEST
TO LOW 80S SOUTHEAST AS COOLING IS MODEST BEHIND IT..H85 TEMPS
DROPPING ONLY A FEW DEGREES BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS BOUNDARY MAKES
ONLY SLIGHT PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE MONDAY LEAVING ENOUGH
CLOUDS TO HOLD TEMPS UP SOMEWHAT HIGHER MONDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY
UPPER 40S TO MID-50S. THE SAME FRONT WILL BECOME NEAR STATIONARY
ALONG COAST AND BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AS SEVERAL WEAK WAVES TRAVERSE NORTHEAST
ALONG IT. MODELS DIFFER IN THE PLACEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY STRENGTH
OF PERTURBATIONS ALONG IT WHICH WILL HAVE A SUBSTANTIAL IMPACT ON
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON TUESDAY. WPC AND GFS SOLUTIONS CURRENTLY
FURTHER SOUTHEAST THAN EARLIER CMC OR ECMWF RUNS WHICH BOTH BRING
CONSIDERABLY MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS INTO OUR CWA. WENT WITH A MODEL
BLEND RETAINING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA BUT THE HIGHEST
OVER THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST SATURDAY...

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY
WEDNESDAY WITH ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN PIEDMONT DURING THE DAY BUT STILL
LINGERING POPS ACROSS OUR CWA BUT MAINLY SOUTHEAST. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS WEDNESDAY WITH PARTIAL CLEARING DURING
IN THE DAY ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST. MEANWHILE ANOTHER FRONT OVER THE
UPPER PLAINS BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH BEGINS TO AMPLIFY
SHARPLY.BOTH GFS AND EURO SHOW UPPER LOW CLOSING OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS BY LATE THURSDAY WITH EXACT POSITION UNCERTAIN AND LIKELY TO
HAVE CONSEQUENCES FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER BY THAT TIME. 00Z EURO IS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH DEEP COMPLEX SURFACE LOW MORE OR LESS MERGING
WITH THE EXISTING COASTAL SYSTEM AND ACTUALLY BACKING IN TOWARD THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. GFS/CMC NOT QUITE AS FAR SOUTH AND DEEP WITH
UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE REFLECTION WHICH SEEMS MORE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY PLAUSIBLE BUT WENT WITH BLEND TO ACCOUNT FOR
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY. EITHER WAY A PERSISTENT DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL EXIST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH COOL TEMPS AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH
60 OVER THE MOUNTAINS...CLOSE TO 10F BELOW NORMAL. SLOWLY RISING
HEIGHTS SATURDAY WILL ALLOW FOR SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT SATURDAY...

SFC WEDGE SHOULD HANG AROUND FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD...ERODING
FROM BLF-LWB BY 120-14Z SUNDAY AND MAYBE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
BY 18Z SUNDAY. GIVEN THIS...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT LOW CIGS WILL
STICK AROUND DURING THIS TAF VALID PERIOD. QUESTION WILL BE VSBYS
AS RAIN/DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING MVFR TO IFR VSBYS AT
TIMES....WHILE CIGS STAY IFR OR WORSE...EXCEPT EARLY ON AT
BLF/LWB.

RAIN LOOKS TO BECOME MORE STEADY OVERNIGHT AND COULD BE MODERATE
TO HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE BLF/LWB AREA. NOT SEEING ANY THUNDER
RIGHT THRU 18Z SUNDAY. WILL BRING CIGS ABOVE 1KFT AT 10-12Z WEST
TO 16Z EAST.

BACKED OFF ON WINDS IN THE EAST AS DO NOT SEE MUCH GRADIENT FOR
GUSTS THIS EVENING.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

CIGS/VSBYS IMPROVING TO MVFR/VFR BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WEDGE
ERODES. SUNDAY AFTERNOON BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION...SOME POSSIBLY STRONG TO SEVERE AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY
TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WARM/UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
SITUATION APPEARS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED THURSDAY
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT PERHAPS MORE ACTIVITY NORTH-WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE THIS TIME AROUND THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED SUNDAY. SFC LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS GA/SC/NC SUN NIGHT-TUE...LIKELY
PROLONGING SUB-VFR CIGS AND POTENTIALLY LEAVING SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. FOR THE MID AND LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK...A DEEP UPPER LOW
IS EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION...WHICH WILL LEAVE THE REGION
WITH VARIABLE CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...PC
LONG TERM...PC
AVIATION...RAB/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 301948
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
348 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION BY MIDWEEK. EXPECT SEVERAL DAYS OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...

STRONG WEDGE IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON WILL HOLD AS WE HEAD THRU THE
NIGHT. MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE WILL
SET UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING
WITH RAINFALL OVERSPREADING THE MOUNTAINS. LOOKING AT OVERNIGHT WE
START TO SEE MODELS EMPHASIZE STRONG LOW LVL CONVERGENCE WITH UPPER
DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...WITH ENHANCED RAINFALL AMOUNTS
IN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. ATTM...LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST MOST OF THE
AREA WILL SEE RAIN OVERNIGHT WITH ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH SETTING UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. WILL NOT ISSUE A
FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL BEAR MONITORING TO SEE IF ANY
DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND TRAINS ACROSS THIS AREA LATE TONIGHT.

WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED FLOOD THREAT IN THE HWO.

AS FAR AS THUNDERSTORMS...AM KEEPING THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST
THROUGH TONIGHT GIVEN LACK OF INSTABILITY AND WEDGE. AS WE HEAD TO
SUNDAY WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO CLEAR SKIES IN THE NORTH AND EAST BUT
MODELS FAVOR QUICKER EROSION OF THE WEDGE. WILL BE SLOWER...THEN
INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. SPC CONTINUES TO
HIGHLIGHT MARGINAL RISK FOR MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS INTO THE PIEDMONTS OF NC/VA. QUESTION WILL BE IF
SUNSHINE CAN BREAK OUT. AT THE MOMENT SEEMS BEST CHANCE OF THIS WILL
BE IN WV/FAR SW VA AND ACROSS THE NW NC PIEDMONT...BUT THINK CLOUDS
WILL BE AROUND MOST OF THE DAY.

WITH FLOW TURNING SSW BY AFTERNOON WENT CLOSE TO MOS ON HIGHS...BUT
COULD SEE IT COOLER IN LYH TO HSP. MOST WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SATURDAY...

A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TOWARD NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT SUNDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
WILL BE DECREASING DURING THE DAY AND SHOULD SEE SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS LATER IN THE DAY. EXPECT
MILD TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY RANGING FROM NEAR 70 NORTHWEST
TO LOW 80S SOUTHEAST AS COOLING IS MODEST BEHIND IT..H85 TEMPS
DROPPING ONLY A FEW DEGREES BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS BOUNDARY MAKES
ONLY SLIGHT PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE MONDAY LEAVING ENOUGH
CLOUDS TO HOLD TEMPS UP SOMEWHAT HIGHER MONDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY
UPPER 40S TO MID-50S. THE SAME FRONT WILL BECOME NEAR STATIONARY
ALONG COAST AND BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AS SEVERAL WEAK WAVES TRAVERSE NORTHEAST
ALONG IT. MODELS DIFFER IN THE PLACEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY STRENGTH
OF PERTURBATIONS ALONG IT WHICH WILL HAVE A SUBSTANTIAL IMPACT ON
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON TUESDAY. WPC AND GFS SOLUTIONS CURRENTLY
FURTHER SOUTHEAST THAN EARLIER CMC OR ECMWF RUNS WHICH BOTH BRING
CONSIDERABLY MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS INTO OUR CWA. WENT WITH A MODEL
BLEND RETAINING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA BUT THE HIGHEST
OVER THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST SATURDAY...

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY
WEDNESDAY WITH ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN PIEDMONT DURING THE DAY BUT STILL
LINGERING POPS ACROSS OUR CWA BUT MAINLY SOUTHEAST. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS WEDNESDAY WITH PARTIAL CLEARING DURING
IN THE DAY ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST. MEANWHILE ANOTHER FRONT OVER THE
UPPER PLAINS BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH BEGINS TO AMPLIFY
SHARPLY.BOTH GFS AND EURO SHOW UPPER LOW CLOSING OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS BY LATE THURSDAY WITH EXACT POSITION UNCERTAIN AND LIKELY TO
HAVE CONSEQUENCES FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER BY THAT TIME. 00Z EURO IS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH DEEP COMPLEX SURFACE LOW MORE OR LESS MERGING
WITH THE EXISTING COASTAL SYSTEM AND ACTUALLY BACKING IN TOWARD THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. GFS/CMC NOT QUITE AS FAR SOUTH AND DEEP WITH
UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE REFLECTION WHICH SEEMS MORE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY PLAUSIBLE BUT WENT WITH BLEND TO ACCOUNT FOR
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY. EITHER WAY A PERSISTENT DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL EXIST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH COOL TEMPS AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH
60 OVER THE MOUNTAINS...CLOSE TO 10F BELOW NORMAL. SLOWLY RISING
HEIGHTS SATURDAY WILL ALLOW FOR SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT SATURDAY...

SFC WEDGE SHOULD HANG AROUND FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD...ERODING
FROM BLF-LWB BY 120-14Z SUNDAY AND MAYBE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
BY 18Z SUNDAY. GIVEN THIS...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT LOW CIGS WILL
STICK AROUND DURING THIS TAF VALID PERIOD. QUESTION WILL BE VSBYS
AS RAIN/DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING MVFR TO IFR VSBYS AT
TIMES....WHILE CIGS STAY IFR OR WORSE...EXCEPT EARLY ON AT
BLF/LWB.

RAIN LOOKS TO BECOME MORE STEADY OVERNIGHT AND COULD BE MODERATE
TO HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE BLF/LWB AREA. NOT SEEING ANY THUNDER
RIGHT THRU 18Z SUNDAY. WILL BRING CIGS ABOVE 1KFT AT 10-12Z WEST
TO 16Z EAST.

BACKED OFF ON WINDS IN THE EAST AS DO NOT SEE MUCH GRADIENT FOR
GUSTS THIS EVENING.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

CIGS/VSBYS IMPROVING TO MVFR/VFR BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WEDGE
ERODES. SUNDAY AFTERNOON BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION...SOME POSSIBLY STRONG TO SEVERE AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY
TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WARM/UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
SITUATION APPEARS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED THURSDAY
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT PERHAPS MORE ACTIVITY NORTH-WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE THIS TIME AROUND THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED SUNDAY. SFC LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS GA/SC/NC SUN NIGHT-TUE...LIKELY
PROLONGING SUB-VFR CIGS AND POTENTIALLY LEAVING SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. FOR THE MID AND LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK...A DEEP UPPER LOW
IS EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION...WHICH WILL LEAVE THE REGION
WITH VARIABLE CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...PC
LONG TERM...PC
AVIATION...RAB/WP




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 301935
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
335 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER DAY WITH A WEDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION ALLOWING FOR A
COOL START TO THE WEEKEND WITH MOST AREAS ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S THIS AFTERNOON. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR A WARM FRONT MOVE NORTHWARD FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS FRONT WILL BRING RAINFALL TO AREAS
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF RICHMOND TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS IT
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. A COOL FRONT STALLS OUT OVER THE AREA
MONDAY ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ESPECIALLY
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

$$

.NEAR TERM...
THE RAIN HAS JUST ENTERED WESTERN VA AND IS STILL GENERALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. WITH THE FRONT STILL WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND MOISTURE
THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT NOT MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PART OF
THE AREA UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WILL TRIM BACK POPS ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA N AND NW OF RIC. THE
TIDEWATER AND NE NC MAY ACTUALLY END UP BEING DRY UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT AND HAVE KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS IN THIS AREA TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...A SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT ONCE AGAIN WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING INTO THE MID 50S. MAY BE A FEW UPPER 40S ONCE AGAIN IN
THE MD EASTERN SHORE BUT PROBABLY A LITTLE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA OF TRIMMING BACK POPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY. THE LATEST NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THAT THE
BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL VA AND POINTS
WEST...WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
GENERALLY NORTH OF RICHMOND. THEN BY AFTERNOON...THE WARM FRONT
GENERALLY MOVES NORTH OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE EASTERN SHORE. WITH THIS...THE AREA WILL SEE THE MOISTURE
SCOUR OUT WITH PERHAPS SOME SUNSHINE BREAKING OUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS HOWEVER...AS THE INCREASED SUNSHINE MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME POCKETS OF INSTABILITY WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE. IF THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP...SEVERE CHANCES ARE FAIRLY
MINIMAL DUE TO WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /ALTHOUGH WIND FIELDS DO
STRENGTHEN WITH TIME/. THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS ALSO SUGGEST
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN VA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SPREADING EASTWARD DURING THE LATE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS. AS
SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE OF THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTH AND
PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

ALL OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL STALL OUT OVER CENTRAL VA ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE...WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR DRYING ACROSS THE AREA. MONDAY MAY END UP BEING
A MOSTLY DRY DAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE FRONT OVERHEAD. WITH THAT
SAID...WILL GENERALLY FOCUS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWER/STORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN VA AND NC WHERE THERE WILL BE THE BEST
INSTABILITY. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND SHOWERS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON MONDAY WITH MANY AREAS SEEING TEMPS
IN THE LOW-MID 80S...EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST WHERE 70S WILL PREVAIL.
COOLER ON TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES FOR RAIN AND NEAR TO
SLGTLY BLO NORMAL TEMPS. FOR TUE NGT/WED...A FRNTAL BNDRY SLOWLY
SAGS S INTO THE CAROLINAS...AS LO PRES DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRNT.
CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE 12Z ECMWF WHICH KEEPS THE FRNT CLOSER TO THE
FA WHILE THE 12Z GFS PUSHES THE FRNT FARTHER S. CHANCES OF RAIN
RANGE FM 20% NW AREAS TO 50% SE AREAS. LO TEMPS TUE NGT IN THE
LO/MID 50S WITH HI TEMPS WED IN THE LO/MID 70S. CHC POPS CONTINUE
THU AND FRI WITH AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS. HI TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S ON AVG EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEDGE PATTERN WITH GENERALLY NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW HAS KEPT
CONDITIONS MVFR THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS HAVE IMPROVED FROM IFR
EARLIER THIS MORNING AND SHOULD REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR
CEILINGS AROUND 3000-3500FT MAY OCCUR AT THE COASTAL TAF SITES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE RETURNING TO MVFR
AROUND 03Z. A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH AN
INCREASING CHC FOR -RA AT RIC AND SBY. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A RETURN
TO IFR CEILINGS AT RIC AROUND 06Z TONIGHT AS THE RAIN PUSHES IN
FROM THE WEST. THE IFR CEILINGS WILL BE SLOWER TO REACH THE COAST
HOLDING OFF UNTIL BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY. HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE
ACROSS CENTRAL VA AND MARYLAND. IFR CONDTIONS IN THE MORNING MAY
IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRNTAL BNDRY WELL S OF THE
LOCAL AREA WITH HI PRES CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND RIDGING DOWN THE
MID ATLC CST. RESULTING NE FLOW CONTINUES THIS AFTN/EVENG WITH SEAS
UP TO ~5 FT EXPECTED. THE SUB-SCA NE FLOW THIS EVENG BCMS SELY THEN
SLY SUN AS SFC LO PRES MOVES THRU THE OH VALLEY. THIS LO WILL DROP A
COLD FRNT INTO THE LOCAL AREA MON...WHICH REMAINS STALLED IN THE
VICINITY THRU MID WEEK. ONLY CHANCE FOR SCA CONDS WILL BE WITH 5 FT
SEAS OVER NRN CSTL WTRS SUN NGT/MON MORNG...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
HEADLINES ATTM WITH SOME CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ654-
     656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MRD
NEAR TERM...MRD
SHORT TERM...MRD
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JDM/JAO
MARINE...MAS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 301925
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
325 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL MOVE
FURTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...RAIN IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS BY EVENING AND OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE AREA
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS H85 WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA.
HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED. RAIN TAPERS OFF TO -SHRA BY
18Z AS DRY SLOT MOVES IN. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH INSTABILITY THAT
COULD KICK T-STORMS AS CLOUDS SHOULD HANG TOUGH AND AN INVERSION
REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...POTENTIAL FOR
FOG AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS SUN NIGHT AS MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW
PREVAILS AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS PA. ASSOCIATED CDFNT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA AROUND 12Z MON WITH DRY WESTERLY FLOW
TAKING OVER. MUCH WARMER THAN IT HAS BEEN RECENTLY WITH HIGHS
TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW 80S. ANOTHER UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE TRACKS
ACROSS THE AREA MON NIGHT WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN TUE BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA
FROM THE ERN GRT LKS WED-THU. MUCH COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVING WILL
RESULT IN INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE T-STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH IMPROVING WX CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...MVFR CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. RAIN MOVES IN THIS EVENING WITH
CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO IFR AND LIFR TOWARD DAYBREAK SUN. IFR
MOST OF THE DAY SUN WITH RAIN ENDING BY 18Z. FOG POTENTIAL SUN
NIGHT AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS OVERNIGHT SUN. DRY AND BREEZY MON UNDER
WRLY FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH SUN NIGHT THEN SCA
CONDITIONS LIKELY MON UNDER WESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...WATER LEVELS EXPECTED TO RISE SUN
AFTERNOON WITH MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AT ANNAPOLIS...SOLOMONS
ISLAND AND STRAITS POINT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...MSE/LFR
MARINE...MSE/LFR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LFR




000
FXUS61 KRNK 301748
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
148 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY MIDWEEK.
EXPECT SEVERAL DAYS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH WIDESPREAD
RAIN...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1237 PM EDT SATURDAY...

SLOWED DOWN TIMING OF HIGHER POPS WITH RADAR TRENDS SHOWING
MOISTURE OVER KY/TN MOVING NE. HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN
RAIN ONSET AS WELL. WILL STILL SEE A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN MOVING TOTHE
MOUNTAINS BY 5PM...BUT NOT MUCH EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE UNTIL THIS
EVENING. TOOK OUT THUNDER AS MAJORITY OF CLOUD COVER WITH WEDGE
WILL KEEP INSTABILITY DOWN. MAY SEE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION INTO
SW VA/NW NC BY 9PM.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT AND COMBINE WITH A SHORT WAVE EMANATING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. UPPER LOW TO BRING WIDESPREAD OVERRUNNING RAINFALL
TO THE AREA AFT 00Z. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD AVERAGE FROM ABOUT
1 INCH WESTERN AREAS TO ABOUT 1/2 INCH EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THIS
TIME FRAME. SPC HAS INDICATED A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE IN THE
FAR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS FOR DAY 1. AT THIS TIME...HAVE NOT
MENTIONED ANY SEVERE IN THE GRIDS THROUGH 12Z SUN AS INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL AT BEST WITHIN THE WEDGE AREA. SOME
CONCERN NEAR THE WEDGE BOUNDARY...BUT FEEL THAT WILL BE A MORE
SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL LITTLE AFT 00Z...LIKELY ENDING UP ONLY A
FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN MAX TEMPS TODAY.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
SOUTHEAST WINDS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY IN THE
MERCER/TAZEWELL/SMYTH COUNTY REGION...BUT SHOULD BE FAR BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...

A QUASI ZONAL UPPER PATTERN WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO A BROAD EASTERN
TROF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND KEEP SYSTEMS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.

ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL DRIVE A SURFACE LOW FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH PUSH TO NUDGE
THE WEDGE ALONG THE COAST A BIT FURTHER EAST...ALLOWING UNSTABLE AIR
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW TO GENERATE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. SEVERE PARAMETERS SUPPORT THE
CURRENT SPC MARGINAL OUTLOOK SO LONG AS THE WEDGE EXITS ON
SCHEDULE. THE RETREATING WEDGE FRONT WILL BE AN AREA TO WATCH FOR
ENHANCED SEVERE POTENTIAL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A
CONCERN WITH PWATS STILL RUNNING WELL OVER ONE INCH AND TRAINING
OF STORMS MAY CREATE SOME HYDRO ISSUES. AS THE FRONT SINKS TO OUR
SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END
WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN UPSLOPE FLOW WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE.

MONDAY LOOKS TO BE QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING A RESPITE FROM THE
RAINFALL...BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE A BRIEF BREAK AS MORE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE DEVELOPING UPPER TROF STARTS TO DEVELOP A WAVES
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
BACK TO THE FORECAST. GUIDANCE IS NOT OFFERING A FOCUSED SET OF
SOLUTIONS REGARDING HOW FAR NORTH THE WAVES WILL DRAG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITATION SO CONFIDENCE ON BEST TIMING/LOCATION OF
PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY IS RATHER LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVES ACROSS
REGION ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WITH UNCERTAINTY...HELD ON TO THE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THIS BOUNDARY. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE WEST TO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE EAST. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP TO AROUND 40 IN THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 50 IN THE
PIEDMONT. DRIER AIR ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ON A WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT SATURDAY...

SFC WEDGE SHOULD HANG AROUND FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD...ERODING
FROM BLF-LWB BY 120-14Z SUNDAY AND MAYBE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
BY 18Z SUNDAY. GIVEN THIS...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT LOW CIGS WILL
STICK AROUND DURING THIS TAF VALID PERIOD. QUESTION WILL BE VSBYS
AS RAIN/DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING MVFR TO IFR VSBYS AT
TIMES....WHILE CIGS STAY IFR OR WORSE...EXCEPT EARLY ON AT
BLF/LWB.

RAIN LOOKS TO BECOME MORE STEADY OVERNIGHT AND COULD BE MODERATE
TO HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE BLF/LWB AREA. NOT SEEING ANY THUNDER
RIGHT THRU 18Z SUNDAY. WILL BRING CIGS ABOVE 1KFT AT 10-12Z WEST
TO 16Z EAST.

BACKED OFF ON WINDS IN THE EAST AS DO NOT SEE MUCH GRADIENT FOR
GUSTS THIS EVENING.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

CIGS/VSBYS IMPROVING TO MVFR/VFR BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WEDGE
ERODES. SUNDAY AFTERNOON BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION...SOME POSSIBLY STRONG TO SEVERE AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY
TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WARM/UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
SITUATION APPEARS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED THURSDAY
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT PERHAPS MORE ACTIVITY NORTH-WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE THIS TIME AROUND THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED SUNDAY. SFC LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS GA/SC/NC SUN NIGHT-TUE...LIKELY
PROLONGING SUB-VFR CIGS AND POTENTIALLY LEAVING SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. FOR THE MID AND LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK...A DEEP UPPER LOW
IS EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION...WHICH WILL LEAVE THE REGION
WITH VARIABLE CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB/WP
NEAR TERM...RAB/WP
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...KK/MBS
AVIATION...RAB/WP




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 301745
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
145 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THEN SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WIDESPREAD CIGS AOB 1KFT ATTM AS LO LVL FLO RMNS FM THE ENE. FNTL
BNDRY HAS SETTLED A BIT FARTHER S SO FAR OVRNGT ACRS NC. WEDGE
RMNS FIRMLY IN PLACE OVR THE FA.

MDL LI FCSTS SUGGEST WEDGE HANGS ON THROUGHOUT TDA ACRS ALL OF THE
FA W/ LITTLE CHC FOR ANY CLEARING/SUBSTANTIAL WARMING. WILL HAVE
AREAS OF DZ/PATCHY FG UNTIL ABT MID MRNG...THEN CHCS FOR RA SLOLY
INCRS FM W-E THROUGH LT AFTN. HI TEMPS FM THE M-U50S AT THE
BEACHES TO MNLY 60-65F ELSW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
POPS BECOMING LIKELY OR HIGHER OVR MUCH OF THE FA TNGT...LASTING
INTO SUN MRNG AS MID LVL WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION INCREASES. LO
LVL WEDGE RMNS IN PLACE THROUGH SUN MRNG PER LI FCST. GRADUAL
EROSION OF THE WEDGE XPCD ON SUNDAY...W/ MARGINAL INSTABILITY
ENOUGH TO RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLD/SCT TSTMS...MNLY IN
SRN/SE VA-NE NC. XPCG CONTD MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS ON SUN...THOUGH
BECOMING WARMER AS LO LVL FLO TURNS MORE SSWLY.

VRB CLDS/PARTLY CLOUDY SUN EVE...THEN STRATUS LIKELY TO REFORM SUN
NGT AND CONT EARLY MON MRNG. SOME DRYING XPCD ON MON AS DEEP LYRD
WSW FLO PREVAILS. A TROUGH OF LO PRES CROSSING THE AREA MAY
COMBINE W/ HEATING TO AID IN DEVELOPMENT OF SHRAS/TSTMS MON
AFTN/EVE (ESP SE VA/NE NC).

LO TEMPS TNGT IN THE L-M50S. HI TEMPS SUN FM THE M-U60S ON THE ERN
SHORE TO THE M-U70S INLAND. LO TEMPS SUN NGT MNLY IN THE L-M60S.
HI TEMPS MON IN THE M-U70S N AND ON THE ERN SHORE TO THE L80S ACRS
SRN VA-NE NC (U60S-L70S AT THE BEACHES).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES FOR RAIN AND NEAR
TO SLGTLY BLO NORMAL TEMPS. FOR MON NGT/TUE...A STALLED FRNTAL
BNDRY REMAINS JUST S OF OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH MID-LEVEL ENERGY
SWINGING THRU THE OH VALLEY. POPS ARE IN THE CHC RANGE (30-50%).
LO TEMPS MON NGT RANGE THRU THE 50S WITH HI TEMPS TUE IN THE
MID/UPR 60S. SIMILAR SETUP FOR WED (CHC POPS) AS SFC LO PRES
DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED FRNT. RETAINED SOME POPS INTO THU AS
WELL WITH AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS. TEMPS WILL CLIMB A
BIT EACH DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LO/MID 70S BY THU.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEDGE PATTERN WITH GENERALLY NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW HAS KEPT
CONDITIONS MVFR THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS HAVE IMPROVED FROM IFR
EARLIER THIS MORNING AND SHOULD REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR
CEILINGS AROUND 3000-3500FT MAY OCCUR AT THE COASTAL TAF SITES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE RETURNING TO MVFR
AROUND 03Z. A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH AN
INCREASING CHC FOR -RA AT RIC AND SBY. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A RETURN
TO IFR CEILINGS AT RIC AROUND 06Z TONIGHT AS THE RAIN PUSHES IN
FROM THE WEST. THE IFR CEILINGS WILL BE SLOWER TO REACH THE COAST
HOLDING OFF UNTIL BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY. HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE
ACROSS CENTRAL VA AND MARYLAND. IFR CONDTIONS IN THE MORNING MAY
IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
NE FLOW 10-15 KT WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO
THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED OVER THE NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING (5-6 FT)...AND SEAS CONTINUE TO
BUILD FARTHER SOUTH. LATEST WNAWAVE/NWPS GUIDANCE SHOW SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 FT ACROSS ALL OUTER WATERS LATER THIS MORNING AND
REMAINING ELEVATED MUCH OF TODAY. THEREFORE...HAVE EXTENDED SCA
(MAINLY FOR SEAS) FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS THRU 5 PM.

SUB-SCA NE FLOW BECOMES E-SE TONIGHT THEN SOUTH ON SUN AS SFC LOW
PRES MOVES THRU THE OH VALLEY. THIS LOW WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO
THE LOCAL AREA MON MORNING...WHICH DROPS SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA BY
TUESDAY. OVERALL...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK. HOWEVER...SEAS MAY BRIEFLY BUILD TO 5 FT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS SUN NIGHT/MON MORN IN SOUTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ654-
     656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JDM/JAO
MARINE...JDM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 301745
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
145 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THEN SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WIDESPREAD CIGS AOB 1KFT ATTM AS LO LVL FLO RMNS FM THE ENE. FNTL
BNDRY HAS SETTLED A BIT FARTHER S SO FAR OVRNGT ACRS NC. WEDGE
RMNS FIRMLY IN PLACE OVR THE FA.

MDL LI FCSTS SUGGEST WEDGE HANGS ON THROUGHOUT TDA ACRS ALL OF THE
FA W/ LITTLE CHC FOR ANY CLEARING/SUBSTANTIAL WARMING. WILL HAVE
AREAS OF DZ/PATCHY FG UNTIL ABT MID MRNG...THEN CHCS FOR RA SLOLY
INCRS FM W-E THROUGH LT AFTN. HI TEMPS FM THE M-U50S AT THE
BEACHES TO MNLY 60-65F ELSW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
POPS BECOMING LIKELY OR HIGHER OVR MUCH OF THE FA TNGT...LASTING
INTO SUN MRNG AS MID LVL WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION INCREASES. LO
LVL WEDGE RMNS IN PLACE THROUGH SUN MRNG PER LI FCST. GRADUAL
EROSION OF THE WEDGE XPCD ON SUNDAY...W/ MARGINAL INSTABILITY
ENOUGH TO RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLD/SCT TSTMS...MNLY IN
SRN/SE VA-NE NC. XPCG CONTD MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS ON SUN...THOUGH
BECOMING WARMER AS LO LVL FLO TURNS MORE SSWLY.

VRB CLDS/PARTLY CLOUDY SUN EVE...THEN STRATUS LIKELY TO REFORM SUN
NGT AND CONT EARLY MON MRNG. SOME DRYING XPCD ON MON AS DEEP LYRD
WSW FLO PREVAILS. A TROUGH OF LO PRES CROSSING THE AREA MAY
COMBINE W/ HEATING TO AID IN DEVELOPMENT OF SHRAS/TSTMS MON
AFTN/EVE (ESP SE VA/NE NC).

LO TEMPS TNGT IN THE L-M50S. HI TEMPS SUN FM THE M-U60S ON THE ERN
SHORE TO THE M-U70S INLAND. LO TEMPS SUN NGT MNLY IN THE L-M60S.
HI TEMPS MON IN THE M-U70S N AND ON THE ERN SHORE TO THE L80S ACRS
SRN VA-NE NC (U60S-L70S AT THE BEACHES).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES FOR RAIN AND NEAR
TO SLGTLY BLO NORMAL TEMPS. FOR MON NGT/TUE...A STALLED FRNTAL
BNDRY REMAINS JUST S OF OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH MID-LEVEL ENERGY
SWINGING THRU THE OH VALLEY. POPS ARE IN THE CHC RANGE (30-50%).
LO TEMPS MON NGT RANGE THRU THE 50S WITH HI TEMPS TUE IN THE
MID/UPR 60S. SIMILAR SETUP FOR WED (CHC POPS) AS SFC LO PRES
DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED FRNT. RETAINED SOME POPS INTO THU AS
WELL WITH AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS. TEMPS WILL CLIMB A
BIT EACH DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LO/MID 70S BY THU.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEDGE PATTERN WITH GENERALLY NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW HAS KEPT
CONDITIONS MVFR THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS HAVE IMPROVED FROM IFR
EARLIER THIS MORNING AND SHOULD REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR
CEILINGS AROUND 3000-3500FT MAY OCCUR AT THE COASTAL TAF SITES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE RETURNING TO MVFR
AROUND 03Z. A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH AN
INCREASING CHC FOR -RA AT RIC AND SBY. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A RETURN
TO IFR CEILINGS AT RIC AROUND 06Z TONIGHT AS THE RAIN PUSHES IN
FROM THE WEST. THE IFR CEILINGS WILL BE SLOWER TO REACH THE COAST
HOLDING OFF UNTIL BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY. HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE
ACROSS CENTRAL VA AND MARYLAND. IFR CONDTIONS IN THE MORNING MAY
IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
NE FLOW 10-15 KT WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO
THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED OVER THE NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING (5-6 FT)...AND SEAS CONTINUE TO
BUILD FARTHER SOUTH. LATEST WNAWAVE/NWPS GUIDANCE SHOW SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 FT ACROSS ALL OUTER WATERS LATER THIS MORNING AND
REMAINING ELEVATED MUCH OF TODAY. THEREFORE...HAVE EXTENDED SCA
(MAINLY FOR SEAS) FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS THRU 5 PM.

SUB-SCA NE FLOW BECOMES E-SE TONIGHT THEN SOUTH ON SUN AS SFC LOW
PRES MOVES THRU THE OH VALLEY. THIS LOW WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO
THE LOCAL AREA MON MORNING...WHICH DROPS SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA BY
TUESDAY. OVERALL...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK. HOWEVER...SEAS MAY BRIEFLY BUILD TO 5 FT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS SUN NIGHT/MON MORN IN SOUTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ654-
     656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JDM/JAO
MARINE...JDM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 301650
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1250 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY MIDWEEK.
EXPECT SEVERAL DAYS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH WIDESPREAD
RAIN...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1237 PM EDT SATURDAY...

SLOWED DOWN TIMING OF HIGHER POPS WITH RADAR TRENDS SHOWING
MOISTURE OVER KY/TN MOVING NE. HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN
RAIN ONSET AS WELL. WILL STILL SEE A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN MOVINGTO
THE MOUNTAINS BY 5PM...BUT NOT MUCH EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE UNTIL
THIS EVENING. TOOK OUT THUNDER AS MAJORITY OF CLOUD COVER WITH
WEDGE WILL KEEP INSTABILITY DOWN. MAY SEE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION
INTO SW VA/NW NC BY 9PM.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT AND COMBINE WITH A SHORT WAVE EMANATING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. UPPER LOW TO BRING WIDESPREAD OVERRUNNING RAINFALL
TO THE AREA AFT 00Z. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD AVERAGE FROM ABOUT
1 INCH WESTERN AREAS TO ABOUT 1/2 INCH EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THIS
TIME FRAME. SPC HAS INDICATED A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE IN THE
FAR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS FOR DAY 1. AT THIS TIME...HAVE NOT
MENTIONED ANY SEVERE IN THE GRIDS THROUGH 12Z SUN AS INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL AT BEST WITHIN THE WEDGE AREA. SOME
CONCERN NEAR THE WEDGE BOUNDARY...BUT FEEL THAT WILL BE A MORE
SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL LITTLE AFT 00Z...LIKELY ENDING UP ONLY A
FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN MAX TEMPS TODAY.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
SOUTHEAST WINDS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY IN THE
MERCER/TAZEWELL/SMYTH COUNTY REGION...BUT SHOULD BE FAR BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...

A QUASI ZONAL UPPER PATTERN WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO A BROAD EASTERN
TROF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND KEEP SYSTEMS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.

ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL DRIVE A SURFACE LOW FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH PUSH TO NUDGE
THE WEDGE ALONG THE COAST A BIT FURTHER EAST...ALLOWING UNSTABLE AIR
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW TO GENERATE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. SEVERE PARAMETERS SUPPORT THE
CURRENT SPC MARGINAL OUTLOOK SO LONG AS THE WEDGE EXITS ON
SCHEDULE. THE RETREATING WEDGE FRONT WILL BE AN AREA TO WATCH FOR
ENHANCED SEVERE POTENTIAL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A
CONCERN WITH PWATS STILL RUNNING WELL OVER ONE INCH AND TRAINING
OF STORMS MAY CREATE SOME HYDRO ISSUES. AS THE FRONT SINKS TO OUR
SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END
WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN UPSLOPE FLOW WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE.

MONDAY LOOKS TO BE QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING A RESPITE FROM THE
RAINFALL...BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE A BRIEF BREAK AS MORE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE DEVELOPING UPPER TROF STARTS TO DEVELOP A WAVES
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
BACK TO THE FORECAST. GUIDANCE IS NOT OFFERING A FOCUSED SET OF
SOLUTIONS REGARDING HOW FAR NORTH THE WAVES WILL DRAG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITATION SO CONFIDENCE ON BEST TIMING/LOCATION OF
PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY IS RATHER LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVES ACROSS
REGION ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WITH UNCERTAINTY...HELD ON TO THE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THIS BOUNDARY. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE WEST TO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE EAST. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP TO AROUND 40 IN THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 50 IN THE
PIEDMONT. DRIER AIR ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ON A WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM EDT SATURDAY...

WEDGE FRONT VERY WELL DEPICTED IN THE LAPS ANALYSIS AND GOES-R
PROVING GROUND MVFR/IFR GRAPHIC...NOW NEAR A LWB-PSK-UKF LINE.
LOW CLOUDS SPREAD INTO THE REGION VERY QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH A SHARP LINE NOTED FROM JUST OVC250 CIGS AT BCB/BLF/LWB TO
CIGS AOB 010 ROA/DAN/LYH...EVEN WIDESPREAD CIGS AOB005 BEHIND THE
WEDGE FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE WEDGE FRONT WEST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE CWA BY THE 12Z-15Z TIME FRAME. AS THE WEDGE DEEPENS
AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO SPREAD OVER TOP OF THE SHALLOW
WEDGE...-DZ WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE...ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE AREAS
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND ALLEGHANY FRONT. -DZ HAS ALREADY BEEN
NOTED AT BCB AND SOME COOPS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE REPORTING -DZ
THIS MORNING. BONAFIDE -RA OR -SHRA SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO
THE REGION LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE FIRST OF SEVERAL SHORT
WAVES EMANATING FROM A PERSISTENT UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
EJECT ENE-NE ACROSS THE REGION. THE WEDGE COULD POTENTIALLY BREAK
LATE IN THE DAY TOWARD THE KBLF/KMKJ/KTNB AREA...BUT MOST LIKELY
THIS WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFT 06Z. MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION AFTER 06Z AS A STRONG SHORT
WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ELEVATED CONVECTION
APPEARS POSSIBLE WITH THIS FEATURE AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...BUT GIVEN LACK OF INSTABILITY WITHIN THE WEDGE...HAVE
REFRAINED FROM MENTIONING TSRA IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. BETTER
THREAT FOR THUNDER WILL COME SUN AFTERNOON.

CIGS STILL VFR AT KBLF/KLWB...BUT HAVE DROPPED AOB 010 ELSEWHERE.
LITTLE IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AND KBLF AND KLWB
SHOULD TREND IFR-LIFR AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AS WELL. SOME VSBYS
NOW IN THE IFR RANGE ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT MOSTLY
EXPECTING MVFR VSBYS AFT 15Z. MOSTLY IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE AREA.

WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE WEST OF THE WEDGE. OTHERWISE...NORTHEAST
6-9KTS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...EAST-SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST
7-10KTS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH LOW END GUSTS DEVELOPING
DURING THE MORNING KBLF VICINITY...AND POSSIBLY OTHER
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH MVFR INCLUDING LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS
PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...LIKELY IMPROVING TO
MVFR/VFR BY AFTERNOON AS THE WEDGE ERODES...SHIFTS NORTHEAST AND
THE REGION MOVES INTO THE WARM SECTOR. SUNDAY AFTERNOON BRINGS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION...SOME POSSIBLY STRONG TO
SEVERE AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN
THE WARM/UNSTABLE AIR MASS. SITUATION APPEARS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO
WHAT WAS OBSERVED THURSDAY ACROSS THE REGION...BUT PERHAPS MORE
ACTIVITY NORTH-WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS TIME AROUND THAN WHAT
WAS OBSERVED SUNDAY. SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS
GA/SC/NC SUN NIGHT-TUE...LIKELY PROLONGING SUB-VFR CIGS AND
POTENTIALLY LEAVING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. FOR THE MID AND LATER
PART OF NEXT WEEK...A DEEP UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC
REGION...WHICH WILL LEAVE THE REGION WITH VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB/WP
NEAR TERM...RAB/WP
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...KK/MBS
AVIATION...RAB




000
FXUS61 KLWX 301339 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
939 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC
STATES THROUGH TODAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...PULLING THE FRONT TO THE NORTH ON
SUNDAY...AND THEN SENDING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CWFA REMAINS WELL ENTRENCHED IN COLD AIR DAMMING WITH A STRONG
INVERSION AND NORTHEAST WINDS EVIDENT ON 12Z IAD RAOB. MORNING
WILL REMAIN CLOUDY AND DRY DUE TO DRY MID-LEVELS BUT FORCING FOR
ASCENT AND MOISTENING IN THE MID LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO OCCUR IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH RAIN BEGINNING IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AFTER
2PM AND LIKELY TO REACH THE I-81 CORRIDOR BY 8PM. RAIN IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AS H85 FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA. ACCUMS TONIGHT WILL
RANGE BETWEEN A QUARTER TO HALF INCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THERE LKLY WL BE LINGERING RAFL IN THE SRN CNTYS AT THE START OF
SUNDAY...BUT IT/LL BE EXITING TO THE EAST ALONG WITH THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE THTE RDG. THAT SHUD RESULT IN A PD OF DRYING...AND HV
ATTEMPTED TO REFLECT THAT BY LWRG OF POPS INTO CHC FOR THE MIDDAY.

SFC LOPRES AND H5 VORT TRACK UP THE OHVLY SUN-SUN NGT. THIS TRACK
WL ENCOURAGE STALLED BNDRY TO LIFT NWD...BUT IT/LL RUN INTO THE
STUBBORN CAD WEDGE. THIS PTTN ALWAYS A CHALLENGE FOR MDLS TO
FCST...AND THE RESULT USUALLY FAVORS PERSISTENCE. AM BEGINNING TO
ACTUALLY SEE THAT REFLECTED IN GDNC...SPCLY IN THE GFS...WHICH
HOLDS ONTO A STBL SFC LYR IN MD THRU THE DAY. BEST H8-5 LAPSE
RATES HOLD OVER THE APLCNS...BUT THERE CUD BE A LTL ELEVATED
INSTBY NE OF THERE.

THE MIDDAY DRYING AND HEATING SHUD PERMIT AFTN SHRA/TSRA TO DVLP.
IN DEFERENCE TO CLIMO...HV PULLED BACK ON THUNDER POTL THIS FCST
CYCLE. STILL SEE ENUF INSTBY/SHEAR SW OF BNDRY FOR TSTMS TO DVLP.
CHALLENGE WL E TO PINPOINT WHERE THAT AREA IS. ATTM WL PAINT IT S
OF CHO-SHD-EKN... FOR LATE IN THE DAY. SPC HAS PEGGED THAT AREA
FOR A MRGL RISK OF SVR. WL HV A THUNDER GRADIENT NEWD FM THERE.
SCHC THUNDER NE OF MRB-DCA WUD ONLY BE FOR A STRAY LATE DAY ELEV
RUMBLE. BEST LIFT WL ACTUALLY BE IN THAT AFOREMENTIONED AREA...ACRS
THE N/NERN CWFA...AGAIN DUE TO UPGLIDE. AFTN POPS WL HOVER IN THE
70-80 PCT RANGE.

SHUD LOSE ANY SFC-BASED INSTBY INSTBY W/ SUNSET...BUT LAPSE RATES
AND SHEAR REMAIN DECENT WELL INTO SUN NGT. THE PARENT LOW WL TRACK
TWD NEW ENGLAND...WHICH WL SEND THE CDFNT THRU OVNGT SUN OR MORE
LKLY MON MRNG. POPS GRDLY TAPER OFF THRU THAT PD. QPF POTL STILL
GOOD SUN EVE...AND WL CARRY SHRA W/ MDT RAFL AT THAT TIME. WL
TAPER OFF THEREAFTER. LKLY TO SEE SOME SUNSHINE BY MON AFTN.

TEMPS THIS PD REMAIN A CHALLENGE AS INSOLATION CUD RSLT IN TEMP
SPIKES. SUN MAXT REFLECT THAT GRADIENT ACRS CWFA. BETTER DRYING
AND SUBSIDENT WLY FLOW MON SUGGESTS THAT MON WL BE A WARMER DAY
REGARDLESS OF CFP.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SYNOPSIS FOR NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN COOL AND UNSETTLED. THE
MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK FEATURES THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IN
TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS. THE FRONT WHICH PASSES THROUGH
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WILL STALL ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WHILE TROUGHING ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN NOAM.
MULTIPLE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THE FRONT. IN
TERMS OF THE 00Z RUNS...ECMWF AND GEM OFFER WETTER SOLUTIONS (I.E.
LOW TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST) FOR THE LOCAL AREA...WHILE THE GFS
IS DRIER. WILL BE CARRYING LOW POPS ALMOST EVERY PERIOD AS TIMING
AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WILL SPAN ACROSS THE DAY-PARTS OF THE
FORECAST. DESPITE THE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST...TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT UNLESS THE LOW TRACKS ARE MUCH FURTHER INLAND
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

BY THURSDAY...ENERGY DIVING SE FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL SEND A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. AS THIS ENERGY INTERACTS WITH THE COASTAL
FRONT...A CLOSED LOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL BE THE
EASTERN LOBE OF A DEVELOPING OMEGA BLOCK FOR THE END OF THE WEEK /
NEXT WEEKEND. THE RESULT WILL BE A SHOWERY PATTERN WITH PERHAPS
SOME LOW TOPPED CONVECTION. WITH NO REAL SOURCE OF WAA...TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK. WITH THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES...THE ALLEGHENY FRONT MAY NOT BE TOO FAR FROM SEEING
SOME WET SNOW FLAKES MIX IN BY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONDS WL GRDLY IMPRV DURING THE DAY. AM STARTING TO FEEL
CONFIDENT ENUF TO CARVE OUT A PD OF VFR FOR BALT-DC TERMINALS MID-
LT AFTN.

FLGT CONDS WL DROP SAT EVE AS RA OVERSPREADS THE AREA. RA MAY BE
MDT TO BRIEFLY HVY SAT NGT INTO ELY SUN. FLGT RESTRICTIONS WL BE
WIDESPREAD...AT LEAST IFR IF NOT LIFR.

POOR FLYING CONDS CARRY OVER INTO SUN...THO BREAKS IN THE OVC LKLY
AS BDRY ATTEMPTS TO WIGGLE N OF THE TERMINALS. ONCE AGN XPCT
IMPRVMNT DURING THE DAY AS RAFL HEADS EAST. THAT WL RESULT IN A
RENEWED CHC AT SHRA DURING THE AFTN. CUD BE THUNDER TOO...SPCLY
INVOF CHO. CONDS BECOME MORE STBL TWD THE NE.

CDFNT WL CROSS THE TERMINALS ELY MON...WHICH SHUD RESULT IN W/NWLY
FLOW. MAY STILL HV RESTRICTIONS TO START...BUT AM HOPEFUL FOR
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR DURING THE DAY.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WITH FRONT STALLED
ALONG SE COAST. GFS SUGGESTS MAINLY VFR WHILE OTHER MODELS WOULD
BRING IN SOME PERIODS OF RAIN AND POSSIBLE IMPACTS TO CIGS/VSBYS.

&&

.MARINE...
LLVLS REMAIN STBL THROUGH THE WKND AS A WEDGE OF HIPRES REMAINS
TRAPPED E OF THE BLURDG. THAT WL RESULT IN MAINLY E FLOW AT 5 TO
10 KT...WITH OCNL PDS CLSR TO 15 KT. WNDS WL VEER A BIT MORE TWD
THE SE AS AN APPCHG WMFNT TRIES TO DISLODGE THE MARINE AMS. ALTHO
WINDS WL BE STRONGER ALOFT...DONT BELIEVE THE STBL LLVLS WL PERMIT
ANY STRONGER WINDS TO REACH THE WATERS EDGE. THEREFORE...HV BACKED
AWAY FROM SCA POTL.

LIGHT NW FLOW EXPECTED TUESDAY BEHIND DEPARTED COLD FRONT. WINDS MAY
BECOME SW BY WEDNESDAY BUT GRADIENT LOOKS WEAK ENOUGH TO KEEP WINDS
AT 10-15 KT. SHOULD A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOP ALONG A
STALLED COASTAL FRONT...HIGHER WINDS MAY BE REALIZED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES REMAIN AROUND THREE QUARTERS TO A FOOT ABOVE
NORMAL. A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE ANOMALIES TO HOLD
NEARLY STEADY OR EVEN INCREASE A BIT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...THE FLOW SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH FOR WATER LEVELS TO
REMAIN BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS. THERES ROOM FOR THIS
FORECAST TO CHANGE...ESPECIALLY TOWARD SUNDAY...SO WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...ADS
AVIATION...ADS/HTS
MARINE...ADS/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LFR/HTS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 301154
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
754 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
A WARM FRONT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION BY MIDWEEK. EXPECT SEVERAL DAYS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 750 AM EDT SATURDAY...

ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT FIRST WAVE OF LIGHT RAIN SPREADING
NORTHEAST THROUGH MAINLY WESTERN AREAS. T/TD READINGS BASICALLY ON
TRACK. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE SPREAD WEST TO THE ALLEGHANY
FRONT...AND WILL REACH THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE CWA BY MID-LATE
MORNING.

AS OF 430 AM EDT SATURDAY...

WEDGE FRONT VERY WELL DEPICTED IN THE LAPS ANALYSIS AND GOES-R
PROVING GROUND MVFR/IFR GRAPHIC...NOW NEAR A LWB-PSK-UKF. LOW
CLOUDS SPREAD INTO THE REGION VERY QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A
SHARP LINE NOTED FROM JUST OVC250 CIGS AT BCB/BLF/LWB TO CIGS AOB
010 ROA/DAN/LYH...AND WITHIN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS BCB. MODELS
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEDGE FRONT WEST THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA BY
THE 12Z-15Z TIME FRAME...LIKELY STALLING SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
VA/TN...NC/TN BORDER BY EVENING. AS THE WEDGE DEEPENS AND MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO SPREAD OVER TOP OF THE SHALLOW
WEDGE...WOULD EXPECT -DZ TO EVOLVE...ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE AREAS
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND ALLEGHANY FRONT. MEANWHILE...A PERSISTENT
BROAD UPPER LOW REMAINS IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S...AND WILL INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND COMBINE WITH A SHORT WAVE EMANATING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST U.S. UPPER LOW TO BRING WIDESPREAD OVERRUNNING
RAINFALL TO THE AREA AFT 00Z...POTENTIALLY ARRIVING IN WESTERN
AREAS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ELEVATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE
AFTER 00Z MAINLY WEST-SOUTHWEST OF A BLF-MKJ-UKF LINE. WIDESPREAD
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD
AVERAGE FROM ABOUT 1-1.25 INCH WESTERN AREAS TO ABOUT 1/2 INCH
EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. SPC HAS INDICATED A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE IN THE FAR WESTERN AREAS FOR DAY 1. AT
THIS TIME...HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY SEVERE IN THE GRIDS THROUGH 12Z
SUN AS INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL AT BEST WITHIN THE
WEDGE AREA. SOME CONCERN NEAR THE WEDGE BOUNDARY...BUT FEEL THAT
WILL BE A MORE SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY.

HAVE REFLECTED THE COOL AIR WEDGE IN THE TEMPERATURE GRIDS...WHICH
THE MET MOS REFLECTED BEST. THE ECMWF WAS TOO WARM AND NOT
PROPERLY REFLECTING THE WEDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL LITTLE AFT
00Z...LIKELY ENDING UP ONLY A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN MAX TEMPS
TODAY.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
SOUTHEAST WINDS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY IN THE
MERCER/TAZEWELL/SMYTH COUNTY REGION...BUT SHOULD BE FAR BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...

A QUASI ZONAL UPPER PATTERN WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO A BROAD EASTERN
TROF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND KEEP SYSTEMS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.

ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL DRIVE A SURFACE LOW FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH PUSH TO NUDGE
THE WEDGE ALONG THE COAST A BIT FURTHER EAST...ALLOWING UNSTABLE AIR
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW TO GENERATE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. SEVERE PARAMETERS SUPPORT THE
CURRENT SPC MARGINAL OUTLOOK SO LONG AS THE WEDGE EXITS ON
SCHEDULE. THE RETREATING WEDGE FRONT WILL BE AN AREA TO WATCH FOR
ENHANCED SEVERE POTENTIAL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A
CONCERN WITH PWATS STILL RUNNING WELL OVER ONE INCH AND TRAINING
OF STORMS MAY CREATE SOME HYDRO ISSUES. AS THE FRONT SINKS TO OUR
SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END
WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN UPSLOPE FLOW WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE.

MONDAY LOOKS TO BE QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING A RESPITE FROM THE
RAINFALL...BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE A BRIEF BREAK AS MORE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE DEVELOPING UPPER TROF STARTS TO DEVELOP A WAVES
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
BACK TO THE FORECAST. GUIDANCE IS NOT OFFERING A FOCUSED SET OF
SOLUTIONS REGARDING HOW FAR NORTH THE WAVES WILL DRAG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITATION SO CONFIDENCE ON BEST TIMING/LOCATION OF
PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY IS RATHER LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVES ACROSS
REGION ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WITH UNCERTAINTY...HELD ON TO THE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THIS BOUNDARY. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE WEST TO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE EAST. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP TO AROUND 40 IN THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 50 IN THE
PIEDMONT. DRIER AIR ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ON A WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM EDT SATURDAY...

WEDGE FRONT VERY WELL DEPICTED IN THE LAPS ANALYSIS AND GOES-R
PROVING GROUND MVFR/IFR GRAPHIC...NOW NEAR A LWB-PSK-UKF LINE.
LOW CLOUDS SPREAD INTO THE REGION VERY QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH A SHARP LINE NOTED FROM JUST OVC250 CIGS AT BCB/BLF/LWB TO
CIGS AOB 010 ROA/DAN/LYH...EVEN WIDESPREAD CIGS AOB005 BEHIND THE
WEDGE FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE WEDGE FRONT WEST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE CWA BY THE 12Z-15Z TIME FRAME. AS THE WEDGE DEEPENS
AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO SPREAD OVER TOP OF THE SHALLOW
WEDGE...-DZ WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE...ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE AREAS
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND ALLEGHANY FRONT. -DZ HAS ALREADY BEEN
NOTED AT BCB AND SOME COOPS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE REPORTING -DZ
THIS MORNING. BONAFIDE -RA OR -SHRA SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO
THE REGION LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE FIRST OF SEVERAL SHORT
WAVES EMANATING FROM A PERSISTENT UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
EJECT ENE-NE ACROSS THE REGION. THE WEDGE COULD POTENTIALLY BREAK
LATE IN THE DAY TOWARD THE KBLF/KMKJ/KTNB AREA...BUT MOST LIKELY
THIS WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFT 06Z. MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION AFTER 06Z AS A STRONG SHORT
WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ELEVATED CONVECTION
APPEARS POSSIBLE WITH THIS FEATURE AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...BUT GIVEN LACK OF INSTABILITY WITHIN THE WEDGE...HAVE
REFRAINED FROM MENTIONING TSRA IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. BETTER
THREAT FOR THUNDER WILL COME SUN AFTERNOON.

CIGS STILL VFR AT KBLF/KLWB...BUT HAVE DROPPED AOB 010 ELSEWHERE.
LITTLE IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AND KBLF AND KLWB
SHOULD TREND IFR-LIFR AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AS WELL. SOME VSBYS
NOW IN THE IFR RANGE ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT MOSTLY
EXPECTING MVFR VSBYS AFT 15Z. MOSTLY IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE AREA.

WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE WEST OF THE WEDGE. OTHERWISE...NORTHEAST
6-9KTS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...EAST-SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST
7-10KTS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH LOW END GUSTS DEVELOPING
DURING THE MORNING KBLF VICINITY...AND POSSIBLY OTHER
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH MVFR INCLUDING LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS
PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...LIKELY IMPROVING TO
MVFR/VFR BY AFTERNOON AS THE WEDGE ERODES...SHIFTS NORTHEAST AND
THE REGION MOVES INTO THE WARM SECTOR. SUNDAY AFTERNOON BRINGS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION...SOME POSSIBLY STRONG TO
SEVERE AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN
THE WARM/UNSTABLE AIR MASS. SITUATION APPEARS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO
WHAT WAS OBSERVED THURSDAY ACROSS THE REGION...BUT PERHAPS MORE
ACTIVITY NORTH-WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS TIME AROUND THAN WHAT
WAS OBSERVED SUNDAY. SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS
GA/SC/NC SUN NIGHT-TUE...LIKELY PROLONGING SUB-VFR CIGS AND
POTENTIALLY LEAVING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. FOR THE MID AND LATER
PART OF NEXT WEEK...A DEEP UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC
REGION...WHICH WILL LEAVE THE REGION WITH VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...RAB
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...KK/MBS
AVIATION...RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 301154
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
754 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
A WARM FRONT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION BY MIDWEEK. EXPECT SEVERAL DAYS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 750 AM EDT SATURDAY...

ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT FIRST WAVE OF LIGHT RAIN SPREADING
NORTHEAST THROUGH MAINLY WESTERN AREAS. T/TD READINGS BASICALLY ON
TRACK. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE SPREAD WEST TO THE ALLEGHANY
FRONT...AND WILL REACH THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE CWA BY MID-LATE
MORNING.

AS OF 430 AM EDT SATURDAY...

WEDGE FRONT VERY WELL DEPICTED IN THE LAPS ANALYSIS AND GOES-R
PROVING GROUND MVFR/IFR GRAPHIC...NOW NEAR A LWB-PSK-UKF. LOW
CLOUDS SPREAD INTO THE REGION VERY QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A
SHARP LINE NOTED FROM JUST OVC250 CIGS AT BCB/BLF/LWB TO CIGS AOB
010 ROA/DAN/LYH...AND WITHIN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS BCB. MODELS
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEDGE FRONT WEST THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA BY
THE 12Z-15Z TIME FRAME...LIKELY STALLING SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
VA/TN...NC/TN BORDER BY EVENING. AS THE WEDGE DEEPENS AND MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO SPREAD OVER TOP OF THE SHALLOW
WEDGE...WOULD EXPECT -DZ TO EVOLVE...ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE AREAS
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND ALLEGHANY FRONT. MEANWHILE...A PERSISTENT
BROAD UPPER LOW REMAINS IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S...AND WILL INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND COMBINE WITH A SHORT WAVE EMANATING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST U.S. UPPER LOW TO BRING WIDESPREAD OVERRUNNING
RAINFALL TO THE AREA AFT 00Z...POTENTIALLY ARRIVING IN WESTERN
AREAS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ELEVATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE
AFTER 00Z MAINLY WEST-SOUTHWEST OF A BLF-MKJ-UKF LINE. WIDESPREAD
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD
AVERAGE FROM ABOUT 1-1.25 INCH WESTERN AREAS TO ABOUT 1/2 INCH
EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. SPC HAS INDICATED A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE IN THE FAR WESTERN AREAS FOR DAY 1. AT
THIS TIME...HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY SEVERE IN THE GRIDS THROUGH 12Z
SUN AS INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL AT BEST WITHIN THE
WEDGE AREA. SOME CONCERN NEAR THE WEDGE BOUNDARY...BUT FEEL THAT
WILL BE A MORE SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY.

HAVE REFLECTED THE COOL AIR WEDGE IN THE TEMPERATURE GRIDS...WHICH
THE MET MOS REFLECTED BEST. THE ECMWF WAS TOO WARM AND NOT
PROPERLY REFLECTING THE WEDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL LITTLE AFT
00Z...LIKELY ENDING UP ONLY A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN MAX TEMPS
TODAY.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
SOUTHEAST WINDS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY IN THE
MERCER/TAZEWELL/SMYTH COUNTY REGION...BUT SHOULD BE FAR BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...

A QUASI ZONAL UPPER PATTERN WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO A BROAD EASTERN
TROF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND KEEP SYSTEMS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.

ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL DRIVE A SURFACE LOW FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH PUSH TO NUDGE
THE WEDGE ALONG THE COAST A BIT FURTHER EAST...ALLOWING UNSTABLE AIR
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW TO GENERATE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. SEVERE PARAMETERS SUPPORT THE
CURRENT SPC MARGINAL OUTLOOK SO LONG AS THE WEDGE EXITS ON
SCHEDULE. THE RETREATING WEDGE FRONT WILL BE AN AREA TO WATCH FOR
ENHANCED SEVERE POTENTIAL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A
CONCERN WITH PWATS STILL RUNNING WELL OVER ONE INCH AND TRAINING
OF STORMS MAY CREATE SOME HYDRO ISSUES. AS THE FRONT SINKS TO OUR
SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END
WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN UPSLOPE FLOW WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE.

MONDAY LOOKS TO BE QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING A RESPITE FROM THE
RAINFALL...BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE A BRIEF BREAK AS MORE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE DEVELOPING UPPER TROF STARTS TO DEVELOP A WAVES
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
BACK TO THE FORECAST. GUIDANCE IS NOT OFFERING A FOCUSED SET OF
SOLUTIONS REGARDING HOW FAR NORTH THE WAVES WILL DRAG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITATION SO CONFIDENCE ON BEST TIMING/LOCATION OF
PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY IS RATHER LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVES ACROSS
REGION ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WITH UNCERTAINTY...HELD ON TO THE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THIS BOUNDARY. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE WEST TO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE EAST. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP TO AROUND 40 IN THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 50 IN THE
PIEDMONT. DRIER AIR ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ON A WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM EDT SATURDAY...

WEDGE FRONT VERY WELL DEPICTED IN THE LAPS ANALYSIS AND GOES-R
PROVING GROUND MVFR/IFR GRAPHIC...NOW NEAR A LWB-PSK-UKF LINE.
LOW CLOUDS SPREAD INTO THE REGION VERY QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH A SHARP LINE NOTED FROM JUST OVC250 CIGS AT BCB/BLF/LWB TO
CIGS AOB 010 ROA/DAN/LYH...EVEN WIDESPREAD CIGS AOB005 BEHIND THE
WEDGE FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE WEDGE FRONT WEST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE CWA BY THE 12Z-15Z TIME FRAME. AS THE WEDGE DEEPENS
AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO SPREAD OVER TOP OF THE SHALLOW
WEDGE...-DZ WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE...ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE AREAS
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND ALLEGHANY FRONT. -DZ HAS ALREADY BEEN
NOTED AT BCB AND SOME COOPS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE REPORTING -DZ
THIS MORNING. BONAFIDE -RA OR -SHRA SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO
THE REGION LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE FIRST OF SEVERAL SHORT
WAVES EMANATING FROM A PERSISTENT UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
EJECT ENE-NE ACROSS THE REGION. THE WEDGE COULD POTENTIALLY BREAK
LATE IN THE DAY TOWARD THE KBLF/KMKJ/KTNB AREA...BUT MOST LIKELY
THIS WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFT 06Z. MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION AFTER 06Z AS A STRONG SHORT
WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ELEVATED CONVECTION
APPEARS POSSIBLE WITH THIS FEATURE AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...BUT GIVEN LACK OF INSTABILITY WITHIN THE WEDGE...HAVE
REFRAINED FROM MENTIONING TSRA IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. BETTER
THREAT FOR THUNDER WILL COME SUN AFTERNOON.

CIGS STILL VFR AT KBLF/KLWB...BUT HAVE DROPPED AOB 010 ELSEWHERE.
LITTLE IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AND KBLF AND KLWB
SHOULD TREND IFR-LIFR AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AS WELL. SOME VSBYS
NOW IN THE IFR RANGE ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT MOSTLY
EXPECTING MVFR VSBYS AFT 15Z. MOSTLY IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE AREA.

WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE WEST OF THE WEDGE. OTHERWISE...NORTHEAST
6-9KTS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...EAST-SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST
7-10KTS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH LOW END GUSTS DEVELOPING
DURING THE MORNING KBLF VICINITY...AND POSSIBLY OTHER
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH MVFR INCLUDING LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS
PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...LIKELY IMPROVING TO
MVFR/VFR BY AFTERNOON AS THE WEDGE ERODES...SHIFTS NORTHEAST AND
THE REGION MOVES INTO THE WARM SECTOR. SUNDAY AFTERNOON BRINGS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION...SOME POSSIBLY STRONG TO
SEVERE AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN
THE WARM/UNSTABLE AIR MASS. SITUATION APPEARS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO
WHAT WAS OBSERVED THURSDAY ACROSS THE REGION...BUT PERHAPS MORE
ACTIVITY NORTH-WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS TIME AROUND THAN WHAT
WAS OBSERVED SUNDAY. SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS
GA/SC/NC SUN NIGHT-TUE...LIKELY PROLONGING SUB-VFR CIGS AND
POTENTIALLY LEAVING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. FOR THE MID AND LATER
PART OF NEXT WEEK...A DEEP UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC
REGION...WHICH WILL LEAVE THE REGION WITH VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...RAB
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...KK/MBS
AVIATION...RAB




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 301052
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
652 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THEN SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WIDESPREAD CIGS AOB 1KFT ATTM AS LO LVL FLO RMNS FM THE ENE. FNTL
BNDRY HAS SETTLED A BIT FARTHER S SO FAR OVRNGT ACRS NC. WEDGE
RMNS FIRMLY IN PLACE OVR THE FA.

MDL LI FCSTS SUGGEST WEDGE HANGS ON THROUGHOUT TDA ACRS ALL OF THE
FA W/ LITTLE CHC FOR ANY CLEARING/SUBSTANTIAL WARMING. WILL HAVE
AREAS OF DZ/PATCHY FG UNTIL ABT MID MRNG...THEN CHCS FOR RA SLOLY
INCRS FM W-E THROUGH LT AFTN. HI TEMPS FM THE M-U50S AT THE
BEACHES TO MNLY 60-65F ELSW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
POPS BECOMING LIKELY OR HIGHER OVR MUCH OF THE FA TNGT...LASTING
INTO SUN MRNG AS MID LVL WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION INCREASES. LO
LVL WEDGE RMNS IN PLACE THROUGH SUN MRNG PER LI FCST. GRADUAL
EROSION OF THE WEDGE XPCD ON SUNDAY...W/ MARGINAL INSTABILITY
ENOUGH TO RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLD/SCT TSTMS...MNLY IN
SRN/SE VA-NE NC. XPCG CONTD MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS ON SUN...THOUGH
BECOMING WARMER AS LO LVL FLO TURNS MORE SSWLY.

VRB CLDS/PARTLY CLOUDY SUN EVE...THEN STRATUS LIKELY TO REFORM SUN
NGT AND CONT EARLY MON MRNG. SOME DRYING XPCD ON MON AS DEEP LYRD
WSW FLO PREVAILS. A TROUGH OF LO PRES CROSSING THE AREA MAY
COMBINE W/ HEATING TO AID IN DEVELOPMENT OF SHRAS/TSTMS MON
AFTN/EVE (ESP SE VA/NE NC).

LO TEMPS TNGT IN THE L-M50S. HI TEMPS SUN FM THE M-U60S ON THE ERN
SHORE TO THE M-U70S INLAND. LO TEMPS SUN NGT MNLY IN THE L-M60S.
HI TEMPS MON IN THE M-U70S N AND ON THE ERN SHORE TO THE L80S ACRS
SRN VA-NE NC (U60S-L70S AT THE BEACHES).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES FOR RAIN AND NEAR
TO SLGTLY BLO NORMAL TEMPS. FOR MON NGT/TUE...A STALLED FRNTAL
BNDRY REMAINS JUST S OF OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH MID-LEVEL ENERGY
SWINGING THRU THE OH VALLEY. POPS ARE IN THE CHC RANGE (30-50%).
LO TEMPS MON NGT RANGE THRU THE 50S WITH HI TEMPS TUE IN THE
MID/UPR 60S. SIMILAR SETUP FOR WED (CHC POPS) AS SFC LO PRES
DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED FRNT. RETAINED SOME POPS INTO THU AS
WELL WITH AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS. TEMPS WILL CLIMB A
BIT EACH DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LO/MID 70S BY THU.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEDGE PATTERN WILL KEEP POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. IFR CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE
TODAY...UNTIL LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE IS STILL
SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR/VFR CIGS BY LATE AFTN/EVE. NOT
QUITE SOLD ON THAT GIVEN LACK OF CLEARING THE PAST FEW DAYS SO
WILL ERR ON THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE.

A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH AN
INCREASING CHC FOR -RA AND DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS TOWARD SUNDAY
MORNING. -RA IS LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT
CHC OF TSTMS SUNDAY AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
NE FLOW 10-15 KT WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO
THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED OVER THE NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING (5-6 FT)...AND SEAS CONTINUE TO
BUILD FARTHER SOUTH. LATEST WNAWAVE/NWPS GUIDANCE SHOW SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 FT ACROSS ALL OUTER WATERS LATER THIS MORNING AND
REMAINING ELEVATED MUCH OF TODAY. THEREFORE...HAVE EXTENDED SCA
(MAINLY FOR SEAS) FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS THRU 5 PM.

SUB-SCA NE FLOW BECOMES E-SE TONIGHT THEN SOUTH ON SUN AS SFC LOW
PRES MOVES THRU THE OH VALLEY. THIS LOW WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO
THE LOCAL AREA MON MORNING...WHICH DROPS SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA BY
TUESDAY. OVERALL...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK. HOWEVER...SEAS MAY BRIEFLY BUILD TO 5 FT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS SUN NIGHT/MON MORN IN SOUTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 300835
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
435 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
A WARM FRONT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION BY MIDWEEK. EXPECT SEVERAL DAYS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT SATURDAY...

WEDGE FRONT VERY WELL DEPICTED IN THE LAPS ANALYSIS AND GOES-R
PROVING GROUND MVFR/IFR GRAPHIC...NOW NEAR A LWB-PSK-UKF. LOW
CLOUDS SPREAD INTO THE REGION VERY QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A
SHARP LINE NOTED FROM JUST OVC250 CIGS AT BCB/BLF/LWB TO CIGS AOB
010 ROA/DAN/LYH...AND WITHIN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS BCB. MODELS
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEDGE FRONT WEST THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA BY
THE 12Z-15Z TIME FRAME...LIKELY STALLING SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
VA/TN...NC/TN BORDER BY EVENING. AS THE WEDGE DEEPENS AND MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO SPREAD OVER TOP OF THE SHALLOW
WEDGE...WOULD EXPECT -DZ TO EVOLVE...ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE AREAS
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND ALLEGHANY FRONT. MEANWHILE...A PERSISTENT
BROAD UPPER LOW REMAINS IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S...AND WILL INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND COMBINE WITH A SHORT WAVE EMANATING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST U.S. UPPER LOW TO BRING WIDESPREAD OVERRUNNING
RAINFALL TO THE AREA AFT 00Z...POTENTIALLY ARRIVING IN WESTERN
AREAS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ELEVATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE
AFTER 00Z MAINLY WEST-SOUTHWEST OF A BLF-MKJ-UKF LINE. WIDESPREAD
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD
AVERAGE FROM ABOUT 1-1.25 INCH WESTERN AREAS TO ABOUT 1/2 INCH
EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. SPC HAS INDICATED A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE IN THE FAR WESTERN AREAS FOR DAY 1. AT
THIS TIME...HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY SEVERE IN THE GRIDS THROUGH 12Z
SUN AS INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL AT BEST WITHIN THE
WEDGE AREA. SOME CONCERN NEAR THE WEDGE BOUNDARY...BUT FEEL THAT
WILL BE A MORE SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY.

HAVE REFLECTED THE COOL AIR WEDGE IN THE TEMPERATURE GRIDS...WHICH
THE MET MOS REFLECTED BEST. THE ECMWF WAS TOO WARM AND NOT
PROPERLY REFLECTING THE WEDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL LITTLE AFT
00Z...LIKELY ENDING UP ONLY A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN MAX TEMPS
TODAY.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
SOUTHEAST WINDS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY IN THE
MERCER/TAZEWELL/SMYTH COUNTY REGION...BUT SHOULD BE FAR BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...

A QUASI ZONAL UPPER PATTERN WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO A BROAD EASTERN
TROF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND KEEP SYSTEMS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.

ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL DRIVE A SURFACE LOW FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH PUSH TO NUDGE
THE WEDGE ALONG THE COAST A BIT FURTHER EAST...ALLOWING UNSTABLE AIR
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW TO GENERATE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. SEVERE PARAMETERS SUPPORT THE
CURRENT SPC MARGINAL OUTLOOK SO LONG AS THE WEDGE EXITS ON
SCHEDULE. THE RETREATING WEDGE FRONT WILL BE AN AREA TO WATCH FOR
ENHANCED SEVERE POTENTIAL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A
CONCERN WITH PWATS STILL RUNNING WELL OVER ONE INCH AND TRAINING
OF STORMS MAY CREATE SOME HYDRO ISSUES. AS THE FRONT SINKS TO OUR
SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END
WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN UPSLOPE FLOW WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE.

MONDAY LOOKS TO BE QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING A RESPITE FROM THE
RAINFALL...BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE A BRIEF BREAK AS MORE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE DEVELOPING UPPER TROF STARTS TO DEVELOP A WAVES
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
BACK TO THE FORECAST. GUIDANCE IS NOT OFFERING A FOCUSED SET OF
SOLUTIONS REGARDING HOW FAR NORTH THE WAVES WILL DRAG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITATION SO CONFIDENCE ON BEST TIMING/LOCATION OF
PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY IS RATHER LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVES ACROSS
REGION ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WITH UNCERTAINTY...HELD ON TO THE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THIS BOUNDARY. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE WEST TO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE EAST. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP TO AROUND 40 IN THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 50 IN THE
PIEDMONT. DRIER AIR ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ON A WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT SATURDAY...

WEDGE FRONT VERY WELL DEPICTED IN THE LAPS ANALYSIS AND GOES-R
PROVING GROUND MVFR/IFR GRAPHIC...NOW NEAR A LWB-ROA-MWK. LOW
CLOUDS SPREAD INTO THE REGION VERY QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A
SHARP LINE NOTED FROM JUST OVC250 CIGS AT BCB/BLF/LWB TO CIGS AOB
100 ROA/DAN/LYH. MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE WEDGE FRONT WEST THROUGH
THE REST OF THE CWA BY THE 12Z-15Z TIME FRAME. AS THE WEDGE
DEEPENS AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO SPREAD OVER TOP OF THE
SHALLOW WEDGE...WOULD EXPECT -DZ TO EVOLVE...ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE
AREAS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND ALLEGHANY FRONT. BONAFIDE -RA OR
-SHRA SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE FIRST OF SEVERAL SHORT WAVES EMANATING FROM A
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S. EJECT ENE-NE ACROSS THE
REGION. THE WEDGE COULD POTENTIALLY BREAK LATE IN THE DAY TOWARD
THE KBLF/KMKJ/KTNB AREA...BUT MOST LIKELY THIS WILL NOT OCCUR
UNTIL AFT 00Z.

CIGS STILL VFR AT KBLF/KLWB/KBCB. GIVEN THAT KROA IS ALREADY
LIFR...WOULD EXPECT KBCB TO TREND THAT WAY WITHIN THE NEXT TWO
HOURS. SHOULD TAKE UNTIL 08Z-10Z TO REACH KLWB...AND PROBABLY
12Z-13Z FOR KBLF. ONE THE WEDGE EVOLVES THE REGION FROM THE
EAST...EXPECT IFR-LIFR CIGS TO HOLD UNTIL 18Z OR SO...THEN BECOME
MOSTLY LOW END MVFR. VSBYS SHOULD DROP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY BY
DAYBREAK...EXPECT POSSIBLY KBLF...WHICH SHOULD HOLD ONTO VFR UNTIL
LATER IN THE DAY. -DZ SHOULD EVOLVE IN UPSLOPE AREAS NEAR THE BLUE
RIDGE/ALLEGHANY FRONT BY EARLY TO MID-MORNING...THEN -RA OR-SHRA
BY 18Z AND BEYOND AS NOTED ABOVE. STILL DO NOT FORESEE MUCH WORSE
THAN MVFR VSBYS THROUGH THIS TAF VALID PERIOD.

WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE WEST OF THE WEDGE. OTHERWISE...NORTHEAST
6-9KTS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...EAST-SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST
7-10KTS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH LOW END GUSTS DEVELOPING
DURING THE MORNING KBLF VICINITY...AND POSSIBLY OTHER
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH MVFR INCLUDING LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS
PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...LIKELY IMPROVING TO
MVFR/VFR BY AFTERNOON AS THE WEDGE ERODES...SHIFTS NORTHEAST AND
THE REGION MOVES INTO THE WARM SECTOR. SUNDAY AFTERNOON BRINGS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION...SOME POSSIBLY STRONG TO
SEVERE AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN
THE WARM/UNSTABLE AIR MASS. SITUATION APPEARS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO
WHAT WAS OBSERVED THURSDAY ACROSS THE REGION...BUT PERHAPS MORE
ACTIVITY NORTH-WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS TIME AROUND THAN WHAT
WAS OBSERVED SUNDAY. SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS
GA/SC/NC SUN NIGHT-TUE...LIKELY PROLONGING SUB-VFR CIGS AND
POTENTIALLY LEAVING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. FOR THE MID AND LATER
PART OF NEXT WEEK...A DEEP UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC
REGION...WHICH WILL LEAVE THE REGION WITH VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...RAB
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...KK/MBS
AVIATION...DS/RAB/WP




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 300744
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
344 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THEN SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WIDESPREAD CIGS AOB 1KFT ATTM AS LO LVL FLO RMNS FM THE ENE. FNTL
BNDRY HAS SETTLED A BIT FARTHER S SO FAR OVRNGT ACRS NC. WEDGE
RMNS FIRMLY IN PLACE OVR THE FA.

MDL LI FCSTS SUGGEST WEDGE HANGS ON THROUGHOUT TDA ACRS ALL OF THE
FA W/ LITTLE CHC FOR ANY CLEARING/SUBSTANTIAL WARMING. WILL HAVE
AREAS OF DZ/PATCHY FG UNTIL ABT MID MRNG...THEN CHCS FOR RA SLOLY
INCRS FM W-E THROUGH LT AFTN. HI TEMPS FM THE M-U50S AT THE
BEACHES TO MNLY 60-65F ELSW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
POPS BECOMING LIKELY OR HIGHER OVR MUCH OF THE FA TNGT...LASTING
INTO SUN MRNG AS MID LVL WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION INCREASES. LO
LVL WEDGE RMNS IN PLACE THROUGH SUN MRNG PER LI FCST. GRADUAL
EROSION OF THE WEDGE XPCD ON SUNDAY...W/ MARGINAL INSTABILITY
ENOUGH TO RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLD/SCT TSTMS...MNLY IN
SRN/SE VA-NE NC. XPCG CONTD MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS ON SUN...THOUGH
BECOMING WARMER AS LO LVL FLO TURNS MORE SSWLY.

VRB CLDS/PARTLY CLOUDY SUN EVE...THEN STRATUS LIKELY TO REFORM SUN
NGT AND CONT EARLY MON MRNG. SOME DRYING XPCD ON MON AS DEEP LYRD
WSW FLO PREVAILS. A TROUGH OF LO PRES CROSSING THE AREA MAY
COMBINE W/ HEATING TO AID IN DEVELOPMENT OF SHRAS/TSTMS MON
AFTN/EVE (ESP SE VA/NE NC).

LO TEMPS TNGT IN THE L-M50S. HI TEMPS SUN FM THE M-U60S ON THE ERN
SHORE TO THE M-U70S INLAND. LO TEMPS SUN NGT MNLY IN THE L-M60S.
HI TEMPS MON IN THE M-U70S N AND ON THE ERN SHORE TO THE L80S ACRS
SRN VA-NE NC (U60S-L70S AT THE BEACHES).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES FOR RAIN AND NEAR
TO SLGTLY BLO NORMAL TEMPS. FOR MON NGT/TUE...A STALLED FRNTAL
BNDRY REMAINS JUST S OF OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH MID-LEVEL ENERGY
SWINGING THRU THE OH VALLEY. POPS ARE IN THE CHC RANGE (30-50%).
LO TEMPS MON NGT RANGE THRU THE 50S WITH HI TEMPS TUE IN THE
MID/UPR 60S. SIMILAR SETUP FOR WED (CHC POPS) AS SFC LO PRES
DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED FRNT. RETAINED SOME POPS INTO THU AS
WELL WITH AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS. TEMPS WILL CLIMB A
BIT EACH DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LO/MID 70S BY THU.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEDGE PATTERN WILL KEEP POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. IFR CIGS ALREADY IN PLACE EARLY THIS
MORNING IN LIGHT NE FLOW. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO LIFR BY 08-10Z.
CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE TODAY...BUT GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR/VFR CIGS BY LATE AFTN.

A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTN WITH AN
INCREASING CHC FOR RA AND TSTMS AND DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. RA IS
LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS
SUNDAY AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
NE FLOW 10-15 KT WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO
THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED OVER THE NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING (5-6 FT)...AND SEAS ARE BEGINNING
TO BUILD FARTHER SOUTH. LATEST WNAWAVE/NWPS GUIDANCE SHOW SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 FT ACROSS ALL OUTER WATERS LATER THIS MORNING AND
REMAINING ELEVATED MUCH OF TODAY. THEREFORE...HAVE EXTENDED SCA
(MAINLY FOR SEAS) FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS THRU 5 PM.

SUB-SCA NE FLOW BECOMES E-SE TONIGHT THEN SOUTH ON SUN AS SFC LOW
PRES MOVES THRU THE OH VALLEY. THIS LOW WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO
THE LOCAL AREA MON MORNING...WHICH DROPS SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA BY
TUESDAY. OVERALL...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK. HOWEVER...SEAS MAY BRIEFLY BUILD TO 5 FT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS SUN NIGHT/MON MORN IN SOUTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 300744
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
344 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THEN SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WIDESPREAD CIGS AOB 1KFT ATTM AS LO LVL FLO RMNS FM THE ENE. FNTL
BNDRY HAS SETTLED A BIT FARTHER S SO FAR OVRNGT ACRS NC. WEDGE
RMNS FIRMLY IN PLACE OVR THE FA.

MDL LI FCSTS SUGGEST WEDGE HANGS ON THROUGHOUT TDA ACRS ALL OF THE
FA W/ LITTLE CHC FOR ANY CLEARING/SUBSTANTIAL WARMING. WILL HAVE
AREAS OF DZ/PATCHY FG UNTIL ABT MID MRNG...THEN CHCS FOR RA SLOLY
INCRS FM W-E THROUGH LT AFTN. HI TEMPS FM THE M-U50S AT THE
BEACHES TO MNLY 60-65F ELSW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
POPS BECOMING LIKELY OR HIGHER OVR MUCH OF THE FA TNGT...LASTING
INTO SUN MRNG AS MID LVL WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION INCREASES. LO
LVL WEDGE RMNS IN PLACE THROUGH SUN MRNG PER LI FCST. GRADUAL
EROSION OF THE WEDGE XPCD ON SUNDAY...W/ MARGINAL INSTABILITY
ENOUGH TO RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLD/SCT TSTMS...MNLY IN
SRN/SE VA-NE NC. XPCG CONTD MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS ON SUN...THOUGH
BECOMING WARMER AS LO LVL FLO TURNS MORE SSWLY.

VRB CLDS/PARTLY CLOUDY SUN EVE...THEN STRATUS LIKELY TO REFORM SUN
NGT AND CONT EARLY MON MRNG. SOME DRYING XPCD ON MON AS DEEP LYRD
WSW FLO PREVAILS. A TROUGH OF LO PRES CROSSING THE AREA MAY
COMBINE W/ HEATING TO AID IN DEVELOPMENT OF SHRAS/TSTMS MON
AFTN/EVE (ESP SE VA/NE NC).

LO TEMPS TNGT IN THE L-M50S. HI TEMPS SUN FM THE M-U60S ON THE ERN
SHORE TO THE M-U70S INLAND. LO TEMPS SUN NGT MNLY IN THE L-M60S.
HI TEMPS MON IN THE M-U70S N AND ON THE ERN SHORE TO THE L80S ACRS
SRN VA-NE NC (U60S-L70S AT THE BEACHES).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES FOR RAIN AND NEAR
TO SLGTLY BLO NORMAL TEMPS. FOR MON NGT/TUE...A STALLED FRNTAL
BNDRY REMAINS JUST S OF OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH MID-LEVEL ENERGY
SWINGING THRU THE OH VALLEY. POPS ARE IN THE CHC RANGE (30-50%).
LO TEMPS MON NGT RANGE THRU THE 50S WITH HI TEMPS TUE IN THE
MID/UPR 60S. SIMILAR SETUP FOR WED (CHC POPS) AS SFC LO PRES
DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED FRNT. RETAINED SOME POPS INTO THU AS
WELL WITH AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS. TEMPS WILL CLIMB A
BIT EACH DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LO/MID 70S BY THU.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEDGE PATTERN WILL KEEP POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. IFR CIGS ALREADY IN PLACE EARLY THIS
MORNING IN LIGHT NE FLOW. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO LIFR BY 08-10Z.
CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE TODAY...BUT GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR/VFR CIGS BY LATE AFTN.

A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTN WITH AN
INCREASING CHC FOR RA AND TSTMS AND DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. RA IS
LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS
SUNDAY AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
NE FLOW 10-15 KT WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO
THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED OVER THE NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING (5-6 FT)...AND SEAS ARE BEGINNING
TO BUILD FARTHER SOUTH. LATEST WNAWAVE/NWPS GUIDANCE SHOW SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 FT ACROSS ALL OUTER WATERS LATER THIS MORNING AND
REMAINING ELEVATED MUCH OF TODAY. THEREFORE...HAVE EXTENDED SCA
(MAINLY FOR SEAS) FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS THRU 5 PM.

SUB-SCA NE FLOW BECOMES E-SE TONIGHT THEN SOUTH ON SUN AS SFC LOW
PRES MOVES THRU THE OH VALLEY. THIS LOW WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO
THE LOCAL AREA MON MORNING...WHICH DROPS SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA BY
TUESDAY. OVERALL...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK. HOWEVER...SEAS MAY BRIEFLY BUILD TO 5 FT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS SUN NIGHT/MON MORN IN SOUTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...AJZ/MAS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 300744
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
344 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THEN SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WIDESPREAD CIGS AOB 1KFT ATTM AS LO LVL FLO RMNS FM THE ENE. FNTL
BNDRY HAS SETTLED A BIT FARTHER S SO FAR OVRNGT ACRS NC. WEDGE
RMNS FIRMLY IN PLACE OVR THE FA.

MDL LI FCSTS SUGGEST WEDGE HANGS ON THROUGHOUT TDA ACRS ALL OF THE
FA W/ LITTLE CHC FOR ANY CLEARING/SUBSTANTIAL WARMING. WILL HAVE
AREAS OF DZ/PATCHY FG UNTIL ABT MID MRNG...THEN CHCS FOR RA SLOLY
INCRS FM W-E THROUGH LT AFTN. HI TEMPS FM THE M-U50S AT THE
BEACHES TO MNLY 60-65F ELSW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
POPS BECOMING LIKELY OR HIGHER OVR MUCH OF THE FA TNGT...LASTING
INTO SUN MRNG AS MID LVL WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION INCREASES. LO
LVL WEDGE RMNS IN PLACE THROUGH SUN MRNG PER LI FCST. GRADUAL
EROSION OF THE WEDGE XPCD ON SUNDAY...W/ MARGINAL INSTABILITY
ENOUGH TO RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLD/SCT TSTMS...MNLY IN
SRN/SE VA-NE NC. XPCG CONTD MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS ON SUN...THOUGH
BECOMING WARMER AS LO LVL FLO TURNS MORE SSWLY.

VRB CLDS/PARTLY CLOUDY SUN EVE...THEN STRATUS LIKELY TO REFORM SUN
NGT AND CONT EARLY MON MRNG. SOME DRYING XPCD ON MON AS DEEP LYRD
WSW FLO PREVAILS. A TROUGH OF LO PRES CROSSING THE AREA MAY
COMBINE W/ HEATING TO AID IN DEVELOPMENT OF SHRAS/TSTMS MON
AFTN/EVE (ESP SE VA/NE NC).

LO TEMPS TNGT IN THE L-M50S. HI TEMPS SUN FM THE M-U60S ON THE ERN
SHORE TO THE M-U70S INLAND. LO TEMPS SUN NGT MNLY IN THE L-M60S.
HI TEMPS MON IN THE M-U70S N AND ON THE ERN SHORE TO THE L80S ACRS
SRN VA-NE NC (U60S-L70S AT THE BEACHES).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES FOR RAIN AND NEAR
TO SLGTLY BLO NORMAL TEMPS. FOR MON NGT/TUE...A STALLED FRNTAL
BNDRY REMAINS JUST S OF OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH MID-LEVEL ENERGY
SWINGING THRU THE OH VALLEY. POPS ARE IN THE CHC RANGE (30-50%).
LO TEMPS MON NGT RANGE THRU THE 50S WITH HI TEMPS TUE IN THE
MID/UPR 60S. SIMILAR SETUP FOR WED (CHC POPS) AS SFC LO PRES
DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED FRNT. RETAINED SOME POPS INTO THU AS
WELL WITH AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS. TEMPS WILL CLIMB A
BIT EACH DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LO/MID 70S BY THU.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEDGE PATTERN WILL KEEP POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. IFR CIGS ALREADY IN PLACE EARLY THIS
MORNING IN LIGHT NE FLOW. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO LIFR BY 08-10Z.
CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE TODAY...BUT GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR/VFR CIGS BY LATE AFTN.

A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTN WITH AN
INCREASING CHC FOR RA AND TSTMS AND DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. RA IS
LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS
SUNDAY AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
NE FLOW 10-15 KT WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO
THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED OVER THE NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING (5-6 FT)...AND SEAS ARE BEGINNING
TO BUILD FARTHER SOUTH. LATEST WNAWAVE/NWPS GUIDANCE SHOW SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 FT ACROSS ALL OUTER WATERS LATER THIS MORNING AND
REMAINING ELEVATED MUCH OF TODAY. THEREFORE...HAVE EXTENDED SCA
(MAINLY FOR SEAS) FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS THRU 5 PM.

SUB-SCA NE FLOW BECOMES E-SE TONIGHT THEN SOUTH ON SUN AS SFC LOW
PRES MOVES THRU THE OH VALLEY. THIS LOW WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO
THE LOCAL AREA MON MORNING...WHICH DROPS SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA BY
TUESDAY. OVERALL...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK. HOWEVER...SEAS MAY BRIEFLY BUILD TO 5 FT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS SUN NIGHT/MON MORN IN SOUTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...AJZ/MAS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 300743
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
343 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WAVER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MID- ATLANTIC SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...
PULLING THE FRONT TO THE NORTH ON SUNDAY...AND THEN SENDING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CWFA REMAINS WITHIN AREA OF COLD AIR DAMMING...AND THIS WEDGE
APPEARS TO HOLD THROUGH THE DAY. THE RDGG DOWN THE COAST FM THE
GRTLKS APPEARS TO STRENGTHEN THRU THE DAY...WHICH HAS KEPT AREA
DRY OVNGT /ASIDE FM ANY PATCHY DZ/ AND SHUD HOLD OFF ANY APPRCHG
RAFL. AM SEEING THESE TRENDS IN LTST GFS/NAM RUNS...AND ITS SPCLY
PREVALENT IN RECENT RAP/HRRR/WRF-ARW4 RUNS. HV THEREFORE BACKED
OFF ON ARRIVAL OF PCPN TDA. THERE IS STILL A RIBBON OF STRONG
ISENT LIFT AHD OF LOPRES IN THE SRN PLAINS...AND PWATS STILL RISE
ABV AN INCH BY DAYS END.

THE IMPACT OF THESE TRENDS ARE TO KEEP PCPN OUT OF THE FCST
ENTIRELY IN NE MD TDA. ONLY CENTRAL FOOTHILLS/CENTRAL SHEN
VLY/SRN PTMC HIGHLANDS HV POPS HIER THAN LKLY-- AND THATS FOR ONLY
THE MID/LATE AFTN HRS. THE DAY WL START CLDY AND GREY AREAWIDE.
AS HIPRES WL BRIEFLY BE CONTROLLING...CLDS SHUD LIFT... AND MAY
SEE A FEW BRIGHT SPOTS. MAXT FCST WL REFLECT LESS OF A GRADIENT...
ALTHO BELIEVE THERE WL BE A LARGE MARGIN FOR ERROR CONTINGENT ON
IF/WHERE ANY SUN APPEARS.

THTE RDG/MSTR PLUME WL OVERSPREAD CWFA TNGT. POPS INCR TO CAT W/
POCKETS OF MDT RAFL. BASICALLY...IT WL BE A RAINY NGT...BUT NOT AT
A PACE WHERE FLOODING WUD BE A CONCERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THERE LKLY WL BE LINGERING RAFL IN THE SRN CNTYS AT THE START OF
SUNDAY...BUT IT/LL BE EXITING TO THE EAST ALONG WITH THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE THTE RDG. THAT SHUD RESULT IN A PD OF DRYING...AND HV
ATTEMPTED TO REFLECT THAT BY LWRG OF POPS INTO CHC FOR THE MIDDAY.

SFC LOPRES AND H5 VORT TRACK UP THE OHVLY SUN-SUN NGT. THIS TRACK
WL ENCOURAGE STALLED BNDRY TO LIFT NWD...BUT IT/LL RUN INTO THE
STUBBORN CAD WEDGE. THIS PTTN ALWAYS A CHALLENGE FOR MDLS TO
FCST...AND THE RESULT USUALLY FAVORS PERSISTENCE. AM BEGINNING TO
ACTUALLY SEE THAT REFLECTED IN GDNC...SPCLY IN THE GFS...WHICH
HOLDS ONTO A STBL SFC LYR IN MD THRU THE DAY. BEST H8-5 LAPSE
RATES HOLD OVER THE APLCNS...BUT THERE CUD BE A LTL ELEVATED
INSTBY NE OF THERE.

THE MIDDAY DRYING AND HEATING SHUD PERMIT AFTN SHRA/TSRA TO DVLP.
IN DEFERENCE TO CLIMO...HV PULLED BACK ON THUNDER POTL THIS FCST
CYCLE. STILL SEE ENUF INSTBY/SHEAR SW OF BNDRY FOR TSTMS TO DVLP.
CHALLENGE WL E TO PINPOINT WHERE THAT AREA IS. ATTM WL PAINT IT S
OF CHO-SHD-EKN... FOR LATE IN THE DAY. SPC HAS PEGGED THAT AREA
FOR A MRGL RISK OF SVR. WL HV A THUNDER GRADIENT NEWD FM THERE.
SCHC THUNDER NE OF MRB-DCA WUD ONLY BE FOR A STRAY LATE DAY ELEV
RUMBLE. BEST LIFT WL ACTUALLY BE IN THAT AFOREMENTIONED AREA...ACRS
THE N/NERN CWFA...AGAIN DUE TO UPGLIDE. AFTN POPS WL HOVER IN THE
70-80 PCT RANGE.

SHUD LOSE ANY SFC-BASED INSTBY INSTBY W/ SUNSET...BUT LAPSE RATES
AND SHEAR REMAIN DECENT WELL INTO SUN NGT. THE PARENT LOW WL TRACK
TWD NEW ENGLAND...WHICH WL SEND THE CDFNT THRU OVNGT SUN OR MORE
LKLY MON MRNG. POPS GRDLY TAPER OFF THRU THAT PD. QPF POTL STILL
GOOD SUN EVE...AND WL CARRY SHRA W/ MDT RAFL AT THAT TIME. WL
TAPER OFF THEREAFTER. LKLY TO SEE SOME SUNSHINE BY MON AFTN.

TEMPS THIS PD REMAIN A CHALLENGE AS INSOLATION CUD RSLT IN TEMP
SPIKES. SUN MAXT REFLECT THAT GRADIENT ACRS CWFA. BETTER DRYING
AND SUBSIDENT WLY FLOW MON SUGGESTS THAT MON WL BE A WARMER DAY
REGARDLESS OF CFP.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SYNOPSIS FOR NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN COOL AND UNSETTLED. THE
MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK FEATURES THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IN
TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS. THE FRONT WHICH PASSES THROUGH
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WILL STALL ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WHILE TROUGHING ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN NOAM.
MULTIPLE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THE FRONT. IN
TERMS OF THE 00Z RUNS...ECMWF AND GEM OFFER WETTER SOLUTIONS (I.E.
LOW TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST) FOR THE LOCAL AREA...WHILE THE GFS
IS DRIER. WILL BE CARRYING LOW POPS ALMOST EVERY PERIOD AS TIMING
AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WILL SPAN ACROSS THE DAY-PARTS OF THE
FORECAST. DESPITE THE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST...TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT UNLESS THE LOW TRACKS ARE MUCH FURTHER INLAND
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

BY THURSDAY...ENERGY DIVING SE FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL SEND A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. AS THIS ENERGY INTERACTS WITH THE COASTAL
FRONT...A CLOSED LOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL BE THE
EASTERN LOBE OF A DEVELOPING OMEGA BLOCK FOR THE END OF THE WEEK /
NEXT WEEKEND. THE RESULT WILL BE A SHOWERY PATTERN WITH PERHAPS
SOME LOW TOPPED CONVECTION. WITH NO REAL SOURCE OF WAA...TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK. WITH THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES...THE ALLEGHENY FRONT MAY NOT BE TOO FAR FROM SEEING
SOME WET SNOW FLAKES MIX IN BY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE CONT ACRS THE TERMINALS ELY THIS
MRNG. RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY IFR...ARE A RESULT OF CIGS. CUD BE
HEADED TWD LIFR TWD SR. ALREADY SEEING HINTS OF THAT AT CHO.

CONDS WL GRDLY IMPRV DURING THE DAY. AM STARTING TO FEEL CONFIDENT
ENUF TO CARVE OUT A PD OF VFR FOR BALT-DC TERMINALS MID-LT AFTN.

FLGT CONDS WL DROP SAT EVE AS RA OVERSPREADS THE AREA. RA MAY BE
MDT TO BRIEFLY HVY SAT NGT INTO ELY SUN. FLGT RESTRICTIONS WL BE
WIDESPREAD...AT LEAST IFR IF NOT LIFR.

POOR FLYING CONDS CARRY OVER INTO SUN...THO BREAKS IN THE OVC LKLY
AS BDRY ATTEMPTS TO WIGGLE N OF THE TERMINALS. ONCE AGN XPCT
IMPRVMNT DURING THE DAY AS RAFL HEADS EAST. THAT WL RESULT IN A
RENEWED CHC AT SHRA DURING THE AFTN. CUD BE THUNDER TOO...SPCLY
INVOF CHO. CONDS BECOME MORE STBL TWD THE NE.

CDFNT WL CROSS THE TERMINALS ELY MON...WHICH SHUD RESULT IN W/NWLY
FLOW. MAY STILL HV RESTRICTIONS TO START...BUT AM HOPEFUL FOR
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR DURING THE DAY.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WITH FRONT STALLED
ALONG SE COAST. GFS SUGGESTS MAINLY VFR WHILE OTHER MODELS WOULD
BRING IN SOME PERIODS OF RAIN AND POSSIBLE IMPACTS TO CIGS/VSBYS.

&&

.MARINE...
LLVLS REMAIN STBL THROUGH THE WKND AS A WEDGE OF HIPRES REMAINS
TRAPPED E OF THE BLURDG. THAT WL RESULT IN MAINLY E FLOW AT 5 TO
10 KT...WITH OCNL PDS CLSR TO 15 KT. WNDS WL VEER A BIT MORE TWD
THE SE AS AN APPCHG WMFNT TRIES TO DISLODGE THE MARINE AMS. ALTHO
WINDS WL BE STRONGER ALOFT...DONT BELIEVE THE STBL LLVLS WL PERMIT
ANY STRONGER WINDS TO REACH THE WATERS EDGE. THEREFORE...HV BACKED
AWAY FROM SCA POTL.

LIGHT NW FLOW EXPECTED TUESDAY BEHIND DEPARTED COLD FRONT. WINDS MAY
BECOME SW BY WEDNESDAY BUT GRADIENT LOOKS WEAK ENOUGH TO KEEP WINDS
AT 10-15 KT. SHOULD A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOP ALONG A
STALLED COASTAL FRONT...HIGHER WINDS MAY BE REALIZED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES REMAIN AROUND ONE-HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF A
FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE ANOMALIES
TO HOLD NEARLY STEADY OR EVEN INCREASE A BIT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...THE FLOW SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH FOR WATER LEVELS TO
REMAIN BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS. THERES ROOM FOR THIS
FORECAST TO CHANGE...ESPECIALLY TOWARD SUNDAY...SO WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...ADS
AVIATION...HTS/ADS
MARINE...HTS/ADS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 300620
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
220 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM AND ACROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT SATURDAY...

WEDGE FRONT VERY WELL DEPICTED IN THE LAPS ANALYSIS AND GOES-R
PROVING GROUND MVFR/IFR GRAPHIC...NOW NEAR A LWB-ROA-MWK. LOW
CLOUDS SPREAD INTO THE REGION VERY QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A
SHARP LINE NOTED FROM JUST OVC250 CIGS AT BCB/BLF/LWB TO CIGS AOB
100 ROA/DAN/LYH. MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE WEDGE FRONT WEST THROUGH
THE REST OF THE CWA BY THE 12Z-15Z TIME FRAME. AS THE WEDGE
DEEPENS AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO SPREAD OVER TOP OF THE
SHALLOW WEDGE...WOULD EXPECT -DZ TO EVOLVE...ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE
AREAS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND ALLEGHANY FRONT. BONAFIDE -RA OR
-SHRA SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE FIRST OF SEVERAL SHORT WAVES EMANATING FROM A
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S. EJECT ENE-NE ACROSS THE
REGION. THE WEDGE COULD POTENTIALLY BREAK LATE IN THE DAY TOWARD
THE KBLF/KMKJ/KTNB AREA...BUT MOST LIKELY THIS WILL NOT OCCUR
UNTIL AFT 00Z.

T/TD GRIDS GENERALLY ON TARGET THIS HOUR. ADJUST POPS DOWNWARD
OVERNIGHT...THEN WENT ALONG WITH ADVERTISED LIKELY POPS BY 15Z
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. EITHER HIGH OR
LOW CLOUDS ENVELOPE MUCH OF THE REGION THIS HOUR...SO HAVE
INCREASED CLOUDS TOWARD 100 PERCENT FROM THIS POINT FORWARD IN
TIME.

AS OF 845 PM EDT FRIDAY...

SQUEEZE PLAY OF CLOUDS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WITHIN THE PERSISTENT FAR EASTERN WEDGE OOZES BACK TOWARD THE BLUE
RIDGE WHILE MID/HIGH CANOPY INCREASES FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF
RETURN WARM ADVECTION TO THE SW. LATEST NAM ALSO QUITE MOIST WITH
THE WEDGE ENHANCING OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF PASSING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TO THE NORTH AND REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM OTHER SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS ALSO SHOW QUITE
A BIT OF TRAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ESPCLY NE. THEREFORE BEEFED
UP CLOUDS AND INCLUDED SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE BACK WEST TO NEAR
ROANOKE AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG. MAIN ASPECT WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE WILL BE WITH DEEPENING CLOUD CANOPY ALTHOUGH
APPEARS ENOUGH DRY AIR TO KEEP THINGS DRY OVERNIGHT ESPCLY GIVEN
THE UPSTREAM MCS DIVING WELL TO OUR SOUTH. LATEST HRRR ABOUT THE
ONLY GUIDANCE SHOWING ANY RAINFALL OVER THE FAR WEST LATE BUT
APPEARS OVERDONE GIVEN ONLY WEAK FORECAST SOUTH/SE FLOW AND LITTLE
SUPPORT ALOFT UNTIL SATURDAY. THUS WILL KEEP TREND OF BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT...BUT MAINLY DRY OUTSIDE OF DRIZZLE...WITH
LOWS IN THE 50S...EXCEPT PERHAPS A FEW COOLER 40S WESTERN VALLEYS
IF CLOUDS STAY THIN LONGER.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 250 PM EDT FRIDAY...

WEDGE STILL HOLDING ON OVER THE PIEDMONT MAINLY EAST OF LYNCHBURG AS
FAR AS CLOUDS GO. TEMPERATURES RANGING WIDELY FROM AROUND 80 IN THE
FOOTHILLS OF NORTH CAROLINA...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE ROANOKE AND
NEW RIVER VALLEY...TO AROUND 60 OUT TOWARD BUCKINGHAM TO KEYSVILLE.

AS WE HEAD THROUGH THIS EVENING...SKIES WILL STAY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY EXCEPT MOSTLY CLOUDY NORTHEAST OF LYH.

MODELS ARE FAVORING SOME TURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDS
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS MOVING WESTWARD AGAIN WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE POSSIBLE NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT UPSLOPE
COMPONENT AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUPPORT MUCH.

WILL HAVE TO SEE WHERE THE MCS OVER WRN TN THIS AFTERNOON MOVES.
MODELS TAKE IT EAST TO NORTHEAST TOWARD ERN KY BY 12Z
SATURDAY...WEAKENING IT. SHOULD START TO SEE SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE
MOUNTAINS OF WV/FAR SW VA AROUND 8-10AM...WITH LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE
IN THE WEDGE. THINK THE HIGH OVER GREAT LAKES BEHIND SHORTWAVE
TONIGHT WILL BRING A STRONGER WEDGE TOWARD OUR AREA SATURDAY...AS
EVIDENCED BY THE SFC LI FIELD IN THE MODELS. AS SUCH SHOULD SEE A
COOLER DAY OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
OUTSIDE THE WEDGE LOOKING FOR HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.

MODELS FAVOR THE AFTERNOON WITH BETTER LOW LVL CONVERGENCE/UPPER
DIVERGENCE MOVE ACROSS WV/FAR WRN VA ALONG THE FRONT. THEREFORE KEPT
LIKELY TO LOW CATEGORICAL POPS GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE TO HIGH CHANCE EAST. THUNDER THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO A FAR
SW VA TO NW NC MTN LINE IN THE AFTERNOON...AND ISOLATED. NO SEVERE
THREAT EXPECT TOMORROW DUE TO WEDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
FOR WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALOFT...AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS
IN THE EAST. LOW PRESSURE WITH AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT EXTENDING
EASTWARD AND COLD FRONT FRONT TRAILING SOUTH WILL MOVES OUT OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SLIDES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DAMPEN OUR
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE NORTH TO AROUND 60
DEGREES IN THE SOUTH.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE
ARE INDICATIONS THAT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE WEDGE WILL BE LOSING
ITS GRIP ON THE AREA AND WE WILL ENTER THE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW. DYNAMIC SUPPORT...WITH
HEALTHY CAPES AND SOME SHEAR MAY BE ADEQUATE TO CREATE SOME
ORGANIZED CONVECTION SUNDAY. THE DAY THREE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK PLACED
OUR AREA UNDER MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THERE IS ALSO THE
POTENTIAL FOR HYDRO ISSUES AS PWATS WILL BE RUNNING WELL OVER ONE
INCH AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ADDED TO OUR RECENT WET SPELL.
TRAINING OF CELLS AND RAIN RATES WILL BE IMPORTANT WITH THESE STORMS
WITH ANY FLOODING POTENTIAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TRICKY WITH
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL VARY FROM THE
MID 60S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 70S IN THE SOUTH.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER
50S IN THE WEST TO NEAR 60 DEGREES IN THE EAST. BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE REGION WITH GENERALLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE IN NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE
WEST. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST
TO THE MID 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE WEST TO THE LOWER 50S IN
THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...


A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. AS SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE CENTER RIDE NORTHWARD ALONG THE
BOUNDARY EXPECT ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE
TIMING OF THE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE LIFTING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS A CHALLENGE. LOOKS LIKE
DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHES FAR ENOUGH NORTH WITH A LOW ON TUESDAY TO
PROVIDE US WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY GFS AND
ECMWF...DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES IN LOW PRESSURE AND ITS TIMING ALONG
WITH THE STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTH TO OUR WEST IN OHIO
VALLEY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. DECIDED TO KEEP
SCATTERED POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE WEST TO
THE LOWER 50S IN THE EAST. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY AND MOVES ACROSS REGION ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WITH
UNCERTAINTY...HELD ON TO THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THIS
BOUNDARY. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S IN THE WEST TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE EAST.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO AROUND 40 IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO NEAR 50 IN THE PIEDMONT. DRIER AIR ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY ON A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT SATURDAY...

WEDGE FRONT VERY WELL DEPICTED IN THE LAPS ANALYSIS AND GOES-R
PROVING GROUND MVFR/IFR GRAPHIC...NOW NEAR A LWB-ROA-MWK. LOW
CLOUDS SPREAD INTO THE REGION VERY QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A
SHARP LINE NOTED FROM JUST OVC250 CIGS AT BCB/BLF/LWB TO CIGS AOB
100 ROA/DAN/LYH. MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE WEDGE FRONT WEST THROUGH
THE REST OF THE CWA BY THE 12Z-15Z TIME FRAME. AS THE WEDGE
DEEPENS AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO SPREAD OVER TOP OF THE
SHALLOW WEDGE...WOULD EXPECT -DZ TO EVOLVE...ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE
AREAS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND ALLEGHANY FRONT. BONAFIDE -RA OR
-SHRA SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE FIRST OF SEVERAL SHORT WAVES EMANATING FROM A
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S. EJECT ENE-NE ACROSS THE
REGION. THE WEDGE COULD POTENTIALLY BREAK LATE IN THE DAY TOWARD
THE KBLF/KMKJ/KTNB AREA...BUT MOST LIKELY THIS WILL NOT OCCUR
UNTIL AFT 00Z.

CIGS STILL VFR AT KBLF/KLWB/KBCB. GIVEN THAT KROA IS ALREADY
LIFR...WOULD EXPECT KBCB TO TREND THAT WAY WITHIN THE NEXT TWO
HOURS. SHOULD TAKE UNTIL 08Z-10Z TO REACH KLWB...AND PROBABLY
12Z-13Z FOR KBLF. ONE THE WEDGE EVOLVES THE REGION FROM THE
EAST...EXPECT IFR-LIFR CIGS TO HOLD UNTIL 18Z OR SO...THEN BECOME
MOSTLY LOW END MVFR. VSBYS SHOULD DROP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY BY
DAYBREAK...EXPECT POSSIBLY KBLF...WHICH SHOULD HOLD ONTO VFR UNTIL
LATER IN THE DAY. -DZ SHOULD EVOLVE IN UPSLOPE AREAS NEAR THE BLUE
RIDGE/ALLEGHANY FRONT BY EARLY TO MID-MORNING...THEN -RA OR-SHRA
BY 18Z AND BEYOND AS NOTED ABOVE. STILL DO NOT FORESEE MUCH WORSE
THAN MVFR VSBYS THROUGH THIS TAF VALID PERIOD.

WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE WEST OF THE WEDGE. OTHERWISE...NORTHEAST
6-9KTS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...EAST-SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST
7-10KTS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH LOW END GUSTS DEVELOPING
DURING THE MORNING KBLF VICINITY...AND POSSIBLY OTHER
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH MVFR INCLUDING LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS
PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...LIKELY IMPROVING TO
MVFR/VFR BY AFTERNOON AS THE WEDGE ERODES...SHIFTS NORTHEAST AND
THE REGION MOVES INTO THE WARM SECTOR. SUNDAY AFTERNOON BRINGS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION...SOME POSSIBLY STRONG TO
SEVERE AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN
THE WARM/UNSTABLE AIR MASS. SITUATION APPEARS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO
WHAT WAS OBSERVED THURSDAY ACROSS THE REGION...BUT PERHAPS MORE
ACTIVITY NORTH-WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS TIME AROUND THAN WHAT
WAS OBSERVED SUNDAY. SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS
GA/SC/NC SUN NIGHT-TUE...LIKELY PROLONGING SUB-VFR CIGS AND
POTENTIALLY LEAVING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. FOR THE MID AND LATER
PART OF NEXT WEEK...A DEEP UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC
REGION...WHICH WILL LEAVE THE REGION WITH VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/RAB/WP
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...DS/RAB/WP




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 300538
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
138 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST MSAS SHOWING FA WEDGED IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE LOCATED WELL
OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. WEAK SFC
TROF MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN VA WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN MOVING
TOWARD THE EASTERN SHORE. HIGH RES DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS
LIGHT RAIN EXPANDING SOUTH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS SO WENT AHEAD
AND ADDED CHC LIGHT RAIN TO AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF I64.

MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL NE FLOW KEEPING AREA SOCKED IN WITH STRATUS
AOB 2K FT ALONG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE THE TREND AFTER MIDNIGHT AFTER SAID S/W MOVES EAST.
GIVEN THE WET GROUND AND SATURATED COLUMN...EXPECT AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AND FOG AFTER MIDNITE JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. VSBYS RATHER
PROBLEMATIC ATTM...BUT DO EXPECT SOME AREAS OF BLO 1 MILE LATE.
THIS BODES OVER THE WATER AS WELL BUT CAPPED VSBYS AT 1-3 NM FOR
NOW GIVEN CURRENT SFC OBS AND WEB CAMS JUST PRIOR TO SS. MAY NEED
A DENSE FOG ADVSRY OVER THE WATERS IF VSBYS BELOW 1 NM BECOME
WIDESPREAD THERE. LOWS 50-55 EXCEPT 45-50 EASTERN SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE WEDGE WILL STAY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE DAY ON SATURDAY
WITH COOL NORTHEAST FLOW AND LOW CLOUDS CONTINUING. MEANWHILE...THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS MOVES EASTWARD WITH ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL GRADUALLY ALLOW FOR
WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT TO GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE
APPALACHIANS LATER IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND INTO THE PIEDMONT AND
COASTAL PLAIN OF VA/NE NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE WEDGE
BREAKS DOWN. MAY SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF VIRGINIA AND THE MARYLAND
EASTERN SHORE. WILL THEREFORE INCREASE POPS TO CATEGORICAL SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR VA AND MD...BUT KEEP CHANCE POPS IN NE
NC AS THEY WILL CONTINUE TO BE REMOVED FROM THE BEST MOISTURE. AS
THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH ON SUNDAY...IT SEEMS CONCEIVABLE THAT THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA WILL DRY OUT AND MAY ACTUALLY SEE SOME
SUNSHINE BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE IN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
INDICATED MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR SUNDAY...AND THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED INSTABILITY IN
THE WARM SECTOR AND INCREASING UPPER WINDS IN RESPONSE TO THE
LOWERING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE AREA.

THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT WILL HANG UP ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE BEST UPPER FORCING REMAINS NORTH AND NORTHEAST
OF THE REGION WITH MUCH OF THE MOISTURE OFF INTO NEW ENGLAND. AS
SUCH...DESPITE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEING NEARLY STALLED ACROSS THE
AREA IT WILL BE TOUGH TO GENERATE MUCH PRECIPITATION. WILL MAINTAIN
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY HOWEVER GIVEN THE SURFACE BOUNDARY BEING
OVER THE AREA. MONDAY MAY END UP BEING THE WARMEST DAY FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS HOWEVER DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF PARTIAL SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES FOR RAIN AND NEAR
TO SLGTLY BLO NORMAL TEMPS. FOR MON NGT/TUE...A STALLED FRNTAL
BNDRY REMAINS JUST S OF OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH MID-LEVEL ENERGY
SWINGING THRU THE OH VALLEY. POPS ARE IN THE CHC RANGE (30-50%).
LO TEMPS MON NGT RANGE THRU THE 50S WITH HI TEMPS TUE IN THE
MID/UPR 60S. SIMILAR SETUP FOR WED (CHC POPS) AS SFC LO PRES
DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED FRNT. RETAINED SOME POPS INTO THU AS
WELL WITH AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS. TEMPS WILL CLIMB A
BIT EACH DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LO/MID 70S BY THU.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEDGE PATTERN WILL KEEP POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. IFR CIGS ALREADY IN PLACE EARLY THIS
MORNING IN LIGHT NE FLOW. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO LIFR BY 08-10Z.
CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE TODAY...BUT GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR/VFR CIGS BY LATE AFTN.

A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTN WITH AN
INCREASING CHC FOR RA AND TSTMS AND DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. RA IS
LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS
SUNDAY AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRNTAL BNDRY S OF THE LOCAL
AREA WITH HI PRES CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF ME RIDGING DOWN THE MID
ATLC CST. THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STAGNANT INTO
SAT...LEADING TO ONSHORE FLOW AND ELEVATED SEAS OVER THE CSTL WTRS.
SEAS WILL REMAIN UP TO ~5 FT OVER NRN CSTL WTRS THRU AT LEAST SAT
MORNG...SO EXTENDED THE SCA HEADLINE THERE THRU MIDDAY SAT...AND
THIS MAY PSBLY NEED TO BE EXTENDED LATER INTO THE DAY. SUB-SCA NE
FLOW TNGT/SAT BCMS SELY THEN SLY SAT NGT INTO SUN AS SFC LO PRES
MOVES THRU THE OH VALLEY. THIS LO WILL DROP A COLD FRNT INTO THE
LOCAL AREA SUN NGT/MON...WHICH BCMS STALLED IN THE VICINITY ERLY TO
MID NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...SUB-SCA CONDS WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99/MPR
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...AJZ/MAS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 300129
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
929 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATEST MSAS SHOWING FA WEDGED IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE LOCATED WELL
OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. WEAK SFC
TROF MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN VA WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN MOVING
TOWARD THE EASTERN SHORE. HIGH RES DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS
LIGHT RAIN EXPANDING SOUTH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS SO WENT AHEAD
AND ADDED CHC LIGHT RAIN TO AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF I64.

MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL NE FLOW KEEPING AREA SOCKED IN WITH STRATUS
AOB 2K FT ALONG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE THE TREND AFTER MIDNIGHT AFTER SAID S/W MOVES EAST.
GIVEN THE WET GROUND AND SATURATED COLUMN...EXPECT AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AND FOG AFTER MIDNITE JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. VSBYS RATHER
PROBLEMATIC ATTM...BUT DO EXPECT SOME AREAS OF BLO 1 MILE LATE.
THIS BODES OVER THE WATER AS WELL BUT CAPPED VSBYS AT 1-3 NM FOR
NOW GIVEN CURRENT SFC OBS AND WEB CAMS JUST PRIOR TO SS. MAY NEED
A DENSE FOG ADVSRY OVER THE WATERS IF VSBYS BELOW 1 NM BECOME
WIDESPREAD THERE. LOWS 50-55 EXCEPT 45-50 EASTERN SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE WEDGE WILL STAY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE DAY ON SATURDAY
WITH COOL NORTHEAST FLOW AND LOW CLOUDS CONTINUING. MEANWHILE...THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS MOVES EASTWARD WITH ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL GRADUALLY ALLOW FOR
WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT TO GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE
APPALACHIANS LATER IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND INTO THE PIEDMONT AND
COASTAL PLAIN OF VA/NE NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE WEDGE
BREAKS DOWN. MAY SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF VIRGINIA AND THE MARYLAND
EASTERN SHORE. WILL THEREFORE INCREASE POPS TO CATEGORICAL SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR VA AND MD...BUT KEEP CHANCE POPS IN NE
NC AS THEY WILL CONTINUE TO BE REMOVED FROM THE BEST MOISTURE. AS
THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH ON SUNDAY...IT SEEMS CONCEIVABLE THAT THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA WILL DRY OUT AND MAY ACTUALLY SEE SOME
SUNSHINE BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE IN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
INDICATED MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR SUNDAY...AND THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED INSTABILITY IN
THE WARM SECTOR AND INCREASING UPPER WINDS IN RESPONSE TO THE
LOWERING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE AREA.

THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT WILL HANG UP ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE BEST UPPER FORCING REMAINS NORTH AND NORTHEAST
OF THE REGION WITH MUCH OF THE MOISTURE OFF INTO NEW ENGLAND. AS
SUCH...DESPITE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEING NEARLY STALLED ACROSS THE
AREA IT WILL BE TOUGH TO GENERATE MUCH PRECIPITATION. WILL MAINTAIN
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY HOWEVER GIVEN THE SURFACE BOUNDARY BEING
OVER THE AREA. MONDAY MAY END UP BEING THE WARMEST DAY FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS HOWEVER DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF PARTIAL SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES FOR RAIN AND NEAR
TO SLGTLY BLO NORMAL TEMPS. FOR MON NGT/TUE...A STALLED FRNTAL
BNDRY REMAINS JUST S OF OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH MID-LEVEL ENERGY
SWINGING THRU THE OH VALLEY. POPS ARE IN THE CHC RANGE (30-50%).
LO TEMPS MON NGT RANGE THRU THE 50S WITH HI TEMPS TUE IN THE
MID/UPR 60S. SIMILAR SETUP FOR WED (CHC POPS) AS SFC LO PRES
DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED FRNT. RETAINED SOME POPS INTO THU AS
WELL WITH AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS. TEMPS WILL CLIMB A
BIT EACH DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LO/MID 70S BY THU.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER NC TONIGHT WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT NE-E WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION AND MVFR/IFR STRATUS CIGS AND FOG WILL
GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
A WEAK SFC TROF WILL ALSO HELP TO DEVELOP LIGHT DRIZZLE/RAIN DURING
THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY SAT MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW
TO IMPROVE ON SAT WITH MVFR/VFR PSBL DURING THE AFTN.

A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTN WITH AN
INCREASING CHC FOR RA AND TSTMS AND DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
RA IS LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF
TSTMS SUNDAY AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRNTAL BNDRY S OF THE LOCAL
AREA WITH HI PRES CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF ME RIDGING DOWN THE MID
ATLC CST. THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STAGNANT INTO
SAT...LEADING TO ONSHORE FLOW AND ELEVATED SEAS OVER THE CSTL WTRS.
SEAS WILL REMAIN UP TO ~5 FT OVER NRN CSTL WTRS THRU AT LEAST SAT
MORNG...SO EXTENDED THE SCA HEADLINE THERE THRU MIDDAY SAT...AND
THIS MAY PSBLY NEED TO BE EXTENDED LATER INTO THE DAY. SUB-SCA NE
FLOW TNGT/SAT BCMS SELY THEN SLY SAT NGT INTO SUN AS SFC LO PRES
MOVES THRU THE OH VALLEY. THIS LO WILL DROP A COLD FRNT INTO THE
LOCAL AREA SUN NGT/MON...WHICH BCMS STALLED IN THE VICINITY ERLY TO
MID NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...SUB-SCA CONDS WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MRD
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...AJZ/MAS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 300111
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
911 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM AND ACROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 845 PM EDT FRIDAY...

SQUEEZE PLAY OF CLOUDS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WITHIN THE PERSISTENT FAR EASTERN WEDGE OOZES BACK TOWARD THE BLUE
RIDGE WHILE MID/HIGH CANOPY INCREASES FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF
RETURN WARM ADVECTION TO THE SW. LATEST NAM ALSO QUITE MOIST WITH
THE WEDGE ENHANCING OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF PASSING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TO THE NORTH AND REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM OTHER SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS ALSO SHOW QUITE
A BIT OF TRAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ESPCLY NE. THEREFORE BEEFED
UP CLOUDS AND INCLUDED SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE BACK WEST TO NEAR
ROANOKE AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG. MAIN ASPECT WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE WILL BE WITH DEEPENING CLOUD CANOPY ALTHOUGH
APPEARS ENOUGH DRY AIR TO KEEP THINGS DRY OVERNIGHT ESPCLY GIVEN
THE UPSTREAM MCS DIVING WELL TO OUR SOUTH. LATEST HRRR ABOUT THE
ONLY GUIDANCE SHOWING ANY RAINFALL OVER THE FAR WEST LATE BUT
APPEARS OVERDONE GIVEN ONLY WEAK FORECAST SOUTH/SE FLOW AND LITTLE
SUPPORT ALOFT UNTIL SATURDAY. THUS WILL KEEP TREND OF BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT...BUT MAINLY DRY OUTSIDE OF DRIZZLE...WITH
LOWS IN THE 50S...EXCEPT PERHAPS A FEW COOLER 40S WESTERN VALLEYS
IF CLOUDS STAY THIN LONGER.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 250 PM EDT FRIDAY...

WEDGE STILL HOLDING ON OVER THE PIEDMONT MAINLY EAST OF LYNCHBURG AS
FAR AS CLOUDS GO. TEMPERATURES RANGING WIDELY FROM AROUND 80 IN THE
FOOTHILLS OF NORTH CAROLINA...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE ROANOKE AND
NEW RIVER VALLEY...TO AROUND 60 OUT TOWARD BUCKINGHAM TO KEYSVILLE.

AS WE HEAD THROUGH THIS EVENING...SKIES WILL STAY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY EXCEPT MOSTLY CLOUDY NORTHEAST OF LYH.

MODELS ARE FAVORING SOME TURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDS
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS MOVING WESTWARD AGAIN WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE POSSIBLE NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT UPSLOPE
COMPONENT AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUPPORT MUCH.

WILL HAVE TO SEE WHERE THE MCS OVER WRN TN THIS AFTERNOON MOVES.
MODELS TAKE IT EAST TO NORTHEAST TOWARD ERN KY BY 12Z
SATURDAY...WEAKENING IT. SHOULD START TO SEE SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE
MOUNTAINS OF WV/FAR SW VA AROUND 8-10AM...WITH LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE
IN THE WEDGE. THINK THE HIGH OVER GREAT LAKES BEHIND SHORTWAVE
TONIGHT WILL BRING A STRONGER WEDGE TOWARD OUR AREA SATURDAY...AS
EVIDENCED BY THE SFC LI FIELD IN THE MODELS. AS SUCH SHOULD SEE A
COOLER DAY OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
OUTSIDE THE WEDGE LOOKING FOR HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.

MODELS FAVOR THE AFTERNOON WITH BETTER LOW LVL CONVERGENCE/UPPER
DIVERGENCE MOVE ACROSS WV/FAR WRN VA ALONG THE FRONT. THEREFORE KEPT
LIKELY TO LOW CATEGORICAL POPS GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE TO HIGH CHANCE EAST. THUNDER THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO A FAR
SW VA TO NW NC MTN LINE IN THE AFTERNOON...AND ISOLATED. NO SEVERE
THREAT EXPECT TOMORROW DUE TO WEDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
FOR WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALOFT...AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS
IN THE EAST. LOW PRESSURE WITH AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT EXTENDING
EASTWARD AND COLD FRONT FRONT TRAILING SOUTH WILL MOVES OUT OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SLIDES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DAMPEN OUR
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE NORTH TO AROUND 60
DEGREES IN THE SOUTH.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE
ARE INDICATIONS THAT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE WEDGE WILL BE LOSING
ITS GRIP ON THE AREA AND WE WILL ENTER THE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW. DYNAMIC SUPPORT...WITH
HEALTHY CAPES AND SOME SHEAR MAY BE ADEQUATE TO CREATE SOME
ORGANIZED CONVECTION SUNDAY. THE DAY THREE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK PLACED
OUR AREA UNDER MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THERE IS ALSO THE
POTENTIAL FOR HYDRO ISSUES AS PWATS WILL BE RUNNING WELL OVER ONE
INCH AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ADDED TO OUR RECENT WET SPELL.
TRAINING OF CELLS AND RAIN RATES WILL BE IMPORTANT WITH THESE STORMS
WITH ANY FLOODING POTENTIAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TRICKY WITH
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL VARY FROM THE
MID 60S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 70S IN THE SOUTH.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER
50S IN THE WEST TO NEAR 60 DEGREES IN THE EAST. BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE REGION WITH GENERALLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE IN NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE
WEST. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST
TO THE MID 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE WEST TO THE LOWER 50S IN
THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...


A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. AS SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE CENTER RIDE NORTHWARD ALONG THE
BOUNDARY EXPECT ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE
TIMING OF THE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE LIFTING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS A CHALLENGE. LOOKS LIKE
DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHES FAR ENOUGH NORTH WITH A LOW ON TUESDAY TO
PROVIDE US WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY GFS AND
ECMWF...DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES IN LOW PRESSURE AND ITS TIMING ALONG
WITH THE STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTH TO OUR WEST IN OHIO
VALLEY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. DECIDED TO KEEP
SCATTERED POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE WEST TO
THE LOWER 50S IN THE EAST. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY AND MOVES ACROSS REGION ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WITH
UNCERTAINTY...HELD ON TO THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THIS
BOUNDARY. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S IN THE WEST TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE EAST.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO AROUND 40 IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO NEAR 50 IN THE PIEDMONT. DRIER AIR ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY ON A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 735 PM EDT FRIDAY...

VRF CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION CURRENTLY. THE
EXCEPTION IS THE REGION OF VIRGINIA NORTH...AROUND...AND EAST OF
KLYH. MVFR CIGS ARE CONTINUING IN THIS AREA FROM THE DAYTIME
HOURS. ALL VISIBILITIES ARE VFR ACROSS THE REGION.

AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...LOOK FOR MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR
VSBYS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH SOME INROADS WESTWARD INTO THE NEW
RIVER VALLEY. THIS AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. THE REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY WILL BE DUE TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG AND/OR LIGHT DRIZZLE. KBLF AND KLWB
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITH AN AREA OF VFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH VSBYS WILL DROP INTO MVFR RANGE.

THIS ALL WILL BE TAKING PLACE AS MOISTURE LEVELS PROGRESSIVELY
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE WEDGE HOLDING FAST INTO THE DAY
SATURDAY. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED DEVELOP WITHIN THIS REGION
SATURDAY...WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY MORE LIKELY BY MID-DAY BETWEEN
KBLF-KLWB...OUTSIDE THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEDGE. LIMITED IF ANY
IMPROVEMENT IN FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WEDGE
UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND THESE WILL BE ONLY SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENTS. WHILE NOT INCLUDED IN THE KBLF TAF AT THIS
POINT...INSTABILITY MAY BE GREAT ENOUGH IN THIS REGION FOR SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH MVFR INCLUDING LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS
PERSIST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE RESIDUAL
STALLED FRONT RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...AND SUB VFR
CONDITIONS.

THE FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE COAST OF NC TO GA THROUGH MIDWEEK
AND COULD KEEP SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS AROUND...ESPECIALLY FROM
BCB-ROA-LYH SOUTH. MODELS STILL VARY ON THIS BUT CONSENSUS IS FOR
SOME AVIATION IMPACT IN TERMS OF SUB VFR CIGS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...DS/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 300111
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
911 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM AND ACROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 845 PM EDT FRIDAY...

SQUEEZE PLAY OF CLOUDS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WITHIN THE PERSISTENT FAR EASTERN WEDGE OOZES BACK TOWARD THE BLUE
RIDGE WHILE MID/HIGH CANOPY INCREASES FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF
RETURN WARM ADVECTION TO THE SW. LATEST NAM ALSO QUITE MOIST WITH
THE WEDGE ENHANCING OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF PASSING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TO THE NORTH AND REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM OTHER SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS ALSO SHOW QUITE
A BIT OF TRAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ESPCLY NE. THEREFORE BEEFED
UP CLOUDS AND INCLUDED SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE BACK WEST TO NEAR
ROANOKE AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG. MAIN ASPECT WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE WILL BE WITH DEEPENING CLOUD CANOPY ALTHOUGH
APPEARS ENOUGH DRY AIR TO KEEP THINGS DRY OVERNIGHT ESPCLY GIVEN
THE UPSTREAM MCS DIVING WELL TO OUR SOUTH. LATEST HRRR ABOUT THE
ONLY GUIDANCE SHOWING ANY RAINFALL OVER THE FAR WEST LATE BUT
APPEARS OVERDONE GIVEN ONLY WEAK FORECAST SOUTH/SE FLOW AND LITTLE
SUPPORT ALOFT UNTIL SATURDAY. THUS WILL KEEP TREND OF BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT...BUT MAINLY DRY OUTSIDE OF DRIZZLE...WITH
LOWS IN THE 50S...EXCEPT PERHAPS A FEW COOLER 40S WESTERN VALLEYS
IF CLOUDS STAY THIN LONGER.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 250 PM EDT FRIDAY...

WEDGE STILL HOLDING ON OVER THE PIEDMONT MAINLY EAST OF LYNCHBURG AS
FAR AS CLOUDS GO. TEMPERATURES RANGING WIDELY FROM AROUND 80 IN THE
FOOTHILLS OF NORTH CAROLINA...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE ROANOKE AND
NEW RIVER VALLEY...TO AROUND 60 OUT TOWARD BUCKINGHAM TO KEYSVILLE.

AS WE HEAD THROUGH THIS EVENING...SKIES WILL STAY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY EXCEPT MOSTLY CLOUDY NORTHEAST OF LYH.

MODELS ARE FAVORING SOME TURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDS
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS MOVING WESTWARD AGAIN WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE POSSIBLE NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT UPSLOPE
COMPONENT AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUPPORT MUCH.

WILL HAVE TO SEE WHERE THE MCS OVER WRN TN THIS AFTERNOON MOVES.
MODELS TAKE IT EAST TO NORTHEAST TOWARD ERN KY BY 12Z
SATURDAY...WEAKENING IT. SHOULD START TO SEE SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE
MOUNTAINS OF WV/FAR SW VA AROUND 8-10AM...WITH LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE
IN THE WEDGE. THINK THE HIGH OVER GREAT LAKES BEHIND SHORTWAVE
TONIGHT WILL BRING A STRONGER WEDGE TOWARD OUR AREA SATURDAY...AS
EVIDENCED BY THE SFC LI FIELD IN THE MODELS. AS SUCH SHOULD SEE A
COOLER DAY OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
OUTSIDE THE WEDGE LOOKING FOR HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.

MODELS FAVOR THE AFTERNOON WITH BETTER LOW LVL CONVERGENCE/UPPER
DIVERGENCE MOVE ACROSS WV/FAR WRN VA ALONG THE FRONT. THEREFORE KEPT
LIKELY TO LOW CATEGORICAL POPS GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE TO HIGH CHANCE EAST. THUNDER THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO A FAR
SW VA TO NW NC MTN LINE IN THE AFTERNOON...AND ISOLATED. NO SEVERE
THREAT EXPECT TOMORROW DUE TO WEDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
FOR WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALOFT...AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS
IN THE EAST. LOW PRESSURE WITH AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT EXTENDING
EASTWARD AND COLD FRONT FRONT TRAILING SOUTH WILL MOVES OUT OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SLIDES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DAMPEN OUR
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE NORTH TO AROUND 60
DEGREES IN THE SOUTH.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE
ARE INDICATIONS THAT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE WEDGE WILL BE LOSING
ITS GRIP ON THE AREA AND WE WILL ENTER THE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW. DYNAMIC SUPPORT...WITH
HEALTHY CAPES AND SOME SHEAR MAY BE ADEQUATE TO CREATE SOME
ORGANIZED CONVECTION SUNDAY. THE DAY THREE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK PLACED
OUR AREA UNDER MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THERE IS ALSO THE
POTENTIAL FOR HYDRO ISSUES AS PWATS WILL BE RUNNING WELL OVER ONE
INCH AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ADDED TO OUR RECENT WET SPELL.
TRAINING OF CELLS AND RAIN RATES WILL BE IMPORTANT WITH THESE STORMS
WITH ANY FLOODING POTENTIAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TRICKY WITH
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL VARY FROM THE
MID 60S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 70S IN THE SOUTH.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER
50S IN THE WEST TO NEAR 60 DEGREES IN THE EAST. BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE REGION WITH GENERALLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE IN NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE
WEST. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST
TO THE MID 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE WEST TO THE LOWER 50S IN
THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...


A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. AS SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE CENTER RIDE NORTHWARD ALONG THE
BOUNDARY EXPECT ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE
TIMING OF THE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE LIFTING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS A CHALLENGE. LOOKS LIKE
DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHES FAR ENOUGH NORTH WITH A LOW ON TUESDAY TO
PROVIDE US WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY GFS AND
ECMWF...DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES IN LOW PRESSURE AND ITS TIMING ALONG
WITH THE STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTH TO OUR WEST IN OHIO
VALLEY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. DECIDED TO KEEP
SCATTERED POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE WEST TO
THE LOWER 50S IN THE EAST. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY AND MOVES ACROSS REGION ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WITH
UNCERTAINTY...HELD ON TO THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THIS
BOUNDARY. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S IN THE WEST TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE EAST.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO AROUND 40 IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO NEAR 50 IN THE PIEDMONT. DRIER AIR ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY ON A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 735 PM EDT FRIDAY...

VRF CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION CURRENTLY. THE
EXCEPTION IS THE REGION OF VIRGINIA NORTH...AROUND...AND EAST OF
KLYH. MVFR CIGS ARE CONTINUING IN THIS AREA FROM THE DAYTIME
HOURS. ALL VISIBILITIES ARE VFR ACROSS THE REGION.

AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...LOOK FOR MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR
VSBYS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH SOME INROADS WESTWARD INTO THE NEW
RIVER VALLEY. THIS AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. THE REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY WILL BE DUE TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG AND/OR LIGHT DRIZZLE. KBLF AND KLWB
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITH AN AREA OF VFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH VSBYS WILL DROP INTO MVFR RANGE.

THIS ALL WILL BE TAKING PLACE AS MOISTURE LEVELS PROGRESSIVELY
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE WEDGE HOLDING FAST INTO THE DAY
SATURDAY. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED DEVELOP WITHIN THIS REGION
SATURDAY...WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY MORE LIKELY BY MID-DAY BETWEEN
KBLF-KLWB...OUTSIDE THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEDGE. LIMITED IF ANY
IMPROVEMENT IN FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WEDGE
UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND THESE WILL BE ONLY SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENTS. WHILE NOT INCLUDED IN THE KBLF TAF AT THIS
POINT...INSTABILITY MAY BE GREAT ENOUGH IN THIS REGION FOR SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH MVFR INCLUDING LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS
PERSIST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE RESIDUAL
STALLED FRONT RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...AND SUB VFR
CONDITIONS.

THE FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE COAST OF NC TO GA THROUGH MIDWEEK
AND COULD KEEP SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS AROUND...ESPECIALLY FROM
BCB-ROA-LYH SOUTH. MODELS STILL VARY ON THIS BUT CONSENSUS IS FOR
SOME AVIATION IMPACT IN TERMS OF SUB VFR CIGS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...DS/WP




000
FXUS61 KLWX 300051
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
851 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WAVER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY...THEN LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MID- ATLANTIC
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY
HIGHLANDS SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING. A SHORTWAVE
IS PASSING BY TO THE NORTH AS WELL.

AN EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN COOL
CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR CWA BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THE ONSHORE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE MOISTURE TO BE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...RESULTING IN LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH PATCHY
FOG. FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE
2KFT. THE SHORTWAVE HAS TRIGGERED LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT RAINFALL COVERAGE IS LIMITED SINCE MOST
OF THE FORCING IS OFF TO THE NORTH. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE AWAY
FROM THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BRINGING ANY STEADY RAIN WITH IT.
HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO
THE ONSHORE FLOW. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S IN
CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE MOST RECENT MDL RUNS /06Z AND 12Z/ ARE TRENDING WETTER...AND
THUS HV INCREASED POPS A PINCH FOR LATE DAY SAT...AND FURTHER INTO
CAT TERRITORY FOR SAT NGT AND SUN.

SAT CULPRIT WL BE ISENT LIFT...WHICH IMPRV THRU THE DAY. BY LT
DAY...HV LKLY POPS. A SOLID SWATH OF MSTR EMINATES FM THE GLFMEX
/PWAT EXCEEDS AN INCH/...WHICH SUPPORTS DECISION TO INCR TO CAT
POPS BY SAT NGT...AS WELL AS INCR TO MDT RAFL IN OUR DATABASE.

SFC LOPRES AND H5 VORT TRACK ALONG THE STALLED BNDRY UP THE OHVLY
SUN INTO SUN NGT. THIS PATH TAKES THE BNDRY N OF THE CWA...AND
DISLODGES LLVL WEDGE. AM A BIT SKEPTICAL OF FULL SCOURING DUE TO
CLIMO...BUT AT THE VERY LEAST IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THERE WL BE AN
ELEVATED UNSTBL LYR. ISENT LIFT/MSTR ADVCTN WL CONT TO FUEL THIS
SYSTEM. AM ATTEMPTING TO PROVIDE A LTL DEFINITION BY CAPTURING A
DIURNAL MIN /RELATIVELY SPEAKING/ IN THE MRNG...FLLWD BY CAT POPS
WHEN DAYTIME HEATING WL HV THE BIGGER IMPACT. IN ADDITION...AM A
LTL MORE EXPANSIVE IN AREA OF CHC THUNDER...AT LEAST FM AN
ELEVATED SENSE. SHEAR LOOKS GOOD...BUT AM CHALLENGED TO SEE TOO
MUCH SFC BASED INSTBY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY...BUT THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IT RODE IN ON WILL REMAIN STALLED NEAR THE REGION THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. MULTIPLE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE ALONG IT...AS THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE
FOR THIS ACTIVE PATTERN PERSISTS OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS
WILL ALSO LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH 70.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE BEHIND A BOUNDARY OVER THE
ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS TONIGHT. IFR CIGS ALONG WITH MVFR AND IFR
VSBYS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. CONDS WL GRDLY IMPRV
SAT...ALTHO FLGT RESTRICTIONS REMAIN. THERE IS A CHC AT BRIEF
VFR PRIOR TO RAFL ARRIVING. ATTM CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO CARVE OUT A
WINDOW OF VFR IN THE TAFS.

LT AFTN OR EVE SAT CONDS WL DROP AS RA OVERSPREADS THE AREA. RA
MAY BE MDT TO BRIEFLY HVY SAT NGT INTO SUN. FLGT RESTRICTIONS WL
BE WIDESPREAD.

POOR FLYING CONDS CARRY OVER INTO SUN...THO BREAKS IN THE OVC PSBL
AS BDRY ATTEMPTS TO WIGGLE N OF THE TERMINALS. HWVR THAT ALSO
YIELDS A THUNDER RISK.

SUB-VFR PSBL MON-TUE IN ANY LWR CIGS/-RA W/ FRONT STALLED NEARBY.
WINDS GENERALLY NELY 10 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
PREV FCST REMAINS ON TRACK. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY. GENERALLY EXPECTING 5- 10 KT WITH OCCASIONAL INCREASES
TO 15 KT. LIGHT FOG AND DZ WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES.

NEXT ROUND OF RAIN AND ASSOCIATED LLJ REACHES WATERS BY ELY SAT
EVNG. AM KEEPING WINDS UNDER SCA CRITERIA THRU SAT NGT EVEN THO
WINDS ALOFT INCREASE DUE TO POOR MIXING. MIXING MAY IMPROVE ON
SUN...PSBLY AFTN/EVE...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THAT RATHER LOW.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCA
CONDITIONS ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE SUN-MON WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING
ON MONDAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS
SHOULD RESULT IN A WEAK ENOUGH GRADIENT TO PRECLUDE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE AROUND ONE-HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF A FOOT
ABOVE NORMAL. A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE ANOMALIES TO
HOLD NEARLY STEADY OR EVEN INCREASE A BIT THROUGH SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THE FLOW SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH FOR WATER LEVELS TO
REMAIN BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS. THE FLOW MAY STRENGTHEN A
BIT SUNDAY...CAUSING WATER LEVELS TO APPROACH MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM/HTS
NEAR TERM...BJL/HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...BJL/HTS/DFH
MARINE...BJL/DFH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL




000
FXUS61 KLWX 300051
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
851 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WAVER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY...THEN LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MID- ATLANTIC
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY
HIGHLANDS SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING. A SHORTWAVE
IS PASSING BY TO THE NORTH AS WELL.

AN EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN COOL
CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR CWA BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THE ONSHORE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE MOISTURE TO BE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...RESULTING IN LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH PATCHY
FOG. FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE
2KFT. THE SHORTWAVE HAS TRIGGERED LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT RAINFALL COVERAGE IS LIMITED SINCE MOST
OF THE FORCING IS OFF TO THE NORTH. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE AWAY
FROM THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BRINGING ANY STEADY RAIN WITH IT.
HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO
THE ONSHORE FLOW. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S IN
CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE MOST RECENT MDL RUNS /06Z AND 12Z/ ARE TRENDING WETTER...AND
THUS HV INCREASED POPS A PINCH FOR LATE DAY SAT...AND FURTHER INTO
CAT TERRITORY FOR SAT NGT AND SUN.

SAT CULPRIT WL BE ISENT LIFT...WHICH IMPRV THRU THE DAY. BY LT
DAY...HV LKLY POPS. A SOLID SWATH OF MSTR EMINATES FM THE GLFMEX
/PWAT EXCEEDS AN INCH/...WHICH SUPPORTS DECISION TO INCR TO CAT
POPS BY SAT NGT...AS WELL AS INCR TO MDT RAFL IN OUR DATABASE.

SFC LOPRES AND H5 VORT TRACK ALONG THE STALLED BNDRY UP THE OHVLY
SUN INTO SUN NGT. THIS PATH TAKES THE BNDRY N OF THE CWA...AND
DISLODGES LLVL WEDGE. AM A BIT SKEPTICAL OF FULL SCOURING DUE TO
CLIMO...BUT AT THE VERY LEAST IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THERE WL BE AN
ELEVATED UNSTBL LYR. ISENT LIFT/MSTR ADVCTN WL CONT TO FUEL THIS
SYSTEM. AM ATTEMPTING TO PROVIDE A LTL DEFINITION BY CAPTURING A
DIURNAL MIN /RELATIVELY SPEAKING/ IN THE MRNG...FLLWD BY CAT POPS
WHEN DAYTIME HEATING WL HV THE BIGGER IMPACT. IN ADDITION...AM A
LTL MORE EXPANSIVE IN AREA OF CHC THUNDER...AT LEAST FM AN
ELEVATED SENSE. SHEAR LOOKS GOOD...BUT AM CHALLENGED TO SEE TOO
MUCH SFC BASED INSTBY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY...BUT THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IT RODE IN ON WILL REMAIN STALLED NEAR THE REGION THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. MULTIPLE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE ALONG IT...AS THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE
FOR THIS ACTIVE PATTERN PERSISTS OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS
WILL ALSO LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH 70.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE BEHIND A BOUNDARY OVER THE
ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS TONIGHT. IFR CIGS ALONG WITH MVFR AND IFR
VSBYS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. CONDS WL GRDLY IMPRV
SAT...ALTHO FLGT RESTRICTIONS REMAIN. THERE IS A CHC AT BRIEF
VFR PRIOR TO RAFL ARRIVING. ATTM CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO CARVE OUT A
WINDOW OF VFR IN THE TAFS.

LT AFTN OR EVE SAT CONDS WL DROP AS RA OVERSPREADS THE AREA. RA
MAY BE MDT TO BRIEFLY HVY SAT NGT INTO SUN. FLGT RESTRICTIONS WL
BE WIDESPREAD.

POOR FLYING CONDS CARRY OVER INTO SUN...THO BREAKS IN THE OVC PSBL
AS BDRY ATTEMPTS TO WIGGLE N OF THE TERMINALS. HWVR THAT ALSO
YIELDS A THUNDER RISK.

SUB-VFR PSBL MON-TUE IN ANY LWR CIGS/-RA W/ FRONT STALLED NEARBY.
WINDS GENERALLY NELY 10 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
PREV FCST REMAINS ON TRACK. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY. GENERALLY EXPECTING 5- 10 KT WITH OCCASIONAL INCREASES
TO 15 KT. LIGHT FOG AND DZ WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES.

NEXT ROUND OF RAIN AND ASSOCIATED LLJ REACHES WATERS BY ELY SAT
EVNG. AM KEEPING WINDS UNDER SCA CRITERIA THRU SAT NGT EVEN THO
WINDS ALOFT INCREASE DUE TO POOR MIXING. MIXING MAY IMPROVE ON
SUN...PSBLY AFTN/EVE...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THAT RATHER LOW.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCA
CONDITIONS ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE SUN-MON WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING
ON MONDAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS
SHOULD RESULT IN A WEAK ENOUGH GRADIENT TO PRECLUDE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE AROUND ONE-HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF A FOOT
ABOVE NORMAL. A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE ANOMALIES TO
HOLD NEARLY STEADY OR EVEN INCREASE A BIT THROUGH SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THE FLOW SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH FOR WATER LEVELS TO
REMAIN BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS. THE FLOW MAY STRENGTHEN A
BIT SUNDAY...CAUSING WATER LEVELS TO APPROACH MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM/HTS
NEAR TERM...BJL/HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...BJL/HTS/DFH
MARINE...BJL/DFH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL




000
FXUS61 KRNK 292347
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
747 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM ACROSS BY SUNDAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EDT FRIDAY...

WEDGE STILL HOLDING ON OVER THE PIEDMONT MAINLY EAST OF LYNCHBURG AS
FAR AS CLOUDS GO. TEMPERATURES RANGING WIDELY FROM AROUND 80 IN THE
FOOTHILLS OF NORTH CAROLINA...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE ROANOKE AND
NEW RIVER VALLEY...TO AROUND 60 OUT TOWARD BUCKINGHAM TO KEYSVILLE.

AS WE HEAD THROUGH THIS EVENING...SKIES WILL STAY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY EXCEPT MOSTLY CLOUDY NORTHEAST OF LYH.

MODELS ARE FAVORING SOME TURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDS
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS MOVING WESTWARD AGAIN WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE POSSIBLE NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT UPSLOPE
COMPONENT AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUPPORT MUCH.

WILL HAVE TO SEE WHERE THE MCS OVER WRN TN THIS AFTERNOON MOVES.
MODELS TAKE IT EAST TO NORTHEAST TOWARD ERN KY BY 12Z
SATURDAY...WEAKENING IT. SHOULD START TO SEE SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE
MOUNTAINS OF WV/FAR SW VA AROUND 8-10AM...WITH LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE
IN THE WEDGE. THINK THE HIGH OVER GREAT LAKES BEHIND SHORTWAVE
TONIGHT WILL BRING A STRONGER WEDGE TOWARD OUR AREA SATURDAY...AS
EVIDENCED BY THE SFC LI FIELD IN THE MODELS. AS SUCH SHOULD SEE A
COOLER DAY OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
OUTSIDE THE WEDGE LOOKING FOR HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.

MODELS FAVOR THE AFTERNOON WITH BETTER LOW LVL CONVERGENCE/UPPER
DIVERGENCE MOVE ACROSS WV/FAR WRN VA ALONG THE FRONT. THEREFORE KEPT
LIKELY TO LOW CATEGORICAL POPS GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE TO HIGH CHANCE EAST. THUNDER THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO A FAR
SW VA TO NW NC MTN LINE IN THE AFTERNOON...AND ISOLATED. NO SEVERE
THREAT EXPECT TOMORROW DUE TO WEDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
FOR WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALOFT...AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS
IN THE EAST. LOW PRESSURE WITH AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT EXTENDING
EASTWARD AND COLD FRONT FRONT TRAILING SOUTH WILL MOVES OUT OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SLIDES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DAMPEN OUR
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE NORTH TO AROUND 60
DEGREES IN THE SOUTH.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE
ARE INDICATIONS THAT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE WEDGE WILL BE LOSING
ITS GRIP ON THE AREA AND WE WILL ENTER THE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW. DYNAMIC SUPPORT...WITH
HEALTHY CAPES AND SOME SHEAR MAY BE ADEQUATE TO CREATE SOME
ORGANIZED CONVECTION SUNDAY. THE DAY THREE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK PLACED
OUR AREA UNDER MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THERE IS ALSO THE
POTENTIAL FOR HYDRO ISSUES AS PWATS WILL BE RUNNING WELL OVER ONE
INCH AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ADDED TO OUR RECENT WET SPELL.
TRAINING OF CELLS AND RAIN RATES WILL BE IMPORTANT WITH THESE STORMS
WITH ANY FLOODING POTENTIAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TRICKY WITH
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL VARY FROM THE
MID 60S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 70S IN THE SOUTH.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER
50S IN THE WEST TO NEAR 60 DEGREES IN THE EAST. BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE REGION WITH GENERALLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE IN NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE
WEST. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST
TO THE MID 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE WEST TO THE LOWER 50S IN
THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...


A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. AS SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE CENTER RIDE NORTHWARD ALONG THE
BOUNDARY EXPECT ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE
TIMING OF THE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE LIFTING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS A CHALLENGE. LOOKS LIKE
DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHES FAR ENOUGH NORTH WITH A LOW ON TUESDAY TO
PROVIDE US WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY GFS AND
ECMWF...DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES IN LOW PRESSURE AND ITS TIMING ALONG
WITH THE STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTH TO OUR WEST IN OHIO
VALLEY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. DECIDED TO KEEP
SCATTERED POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE WEST TO
THE LOWER 50S IN THE EAST. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY AND MOVES ACROSS REGION ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WITH
UNCERTAINTY...HELD ON TO THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THIS
BOUNDARY. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S IN THE WEST TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE EAST.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO AROUND 40 IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO NEAR 50 IN THE PIEDMONT. DRIER AIR ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY ON A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 735 PM EDT FRIDAY...

VRF CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION CURRENTLY. THE
EXCEPTION IS THE REGION OF VIRGINIA NORTH...AROUND...AND EAST OF
KLYH. MVFR CIGS ARE CONTINUING IN THIS AREA FROM THE DAYTIME
HOURS. ALL VISIBILITIES ARE VFR ACROSS THE REGION.

AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...LOOK FOR MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR
VSBYS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH SOME INROADS WESTWARD INTO THE NEW
RIVER VALLEY. THIS AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. THE REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY WILL BE DUE TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG AND/OR LIGHT DRIZZLE. KBLF AND KLWB
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITH AN AREA OF VFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH VSBYS WILL DROP INTO MVFR RANGE.

THIS ALL WILL BE TAKING PLACE AS MOISTURE LEVELS PROGRESSIVELY
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE WEDGE HOLDING FAST INTO THE DAY
SATURDAY. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED DEVELOP WITHIN THIS REGION
SATURDAY...WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY MORE LIKELY BY MID-DAY BETWEEN
KBLF-KLWB...OUTSIDE THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEDGE. LIMITED IF ANY
IMPROVEMENT IN FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WEDGE
UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND THESE WILL BE ONLY SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENTS. WHILE NOT INCLUDED IN THE KBLF TAF AT THIS
POINT...INSTABILITY MAY BE GREAT ENOUGH IN THIS REGION FOR SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH MVFR INCLUDING LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS
PERSIST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE RESIDUAL
STALLED FRONT RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...AND SUB VFR
CONDITIONS.

THE FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE COAST OF NC TO GA THROUGH MIDWEEK
AND COULD KEEP SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS AROUND...ESPECIALLY FROM
BCB-ROA-LYH SOUTH. MODELS STILL VARY ON THIS BUT CONSENSUS IS FOR
SOME AVIATION IMPACT IN TERMS OF SUB VFR CIGS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...DS/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 292347
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
747 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM ACROSS BY SUNDAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EDT FRIDAY...

WEDGE STILL HOLDING ON OVER THE PIEDMONT MAINLY EAST OF LYNCHBURG AS
FAR AS CLOUDS GO. TEMPERATURES RANGING WIDELY FROM AROUND 80 IN THE
FOOTHILLS OF NORTH CAROLINA...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE ROANOKE AND
NEW RIVER VALLEY...TO AROUND 60 OUT TOWARD BUCKINGHAM TO KEYSVILLE.

AS WE HEAD THROUGH THIS EVENING...SKIES WILL STAY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY EXCEPT MOSTLY CLOUDY NORTHEAST OF LYH.

MODELS ARE FAVORING SOME TURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDS
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS MOVING WESTWARD AGAIN WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE POSSIBLE NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT UPSLOPE
COMPONENT AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUPPORT MUCH.

WILL HAVE TO SEE WHERE THE MCS OVER WRN TN THIS AFTERNOON MOVES.
MODELS TAKE IT EAST TO NORTHEAST TOWARD ERN KY BY 12Z
SATURDAY...WEAKENING IT. SHOULD START TO SEE SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE
MOUNTAINS OF WV/FAR SW VA AROUND 8-10AM...WITH LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE
IN THE WEDGE. THINK THE HIGH OVER GREAT LAKES BEHIND SHORTWAVE
TONIGHT WILL BRING A STRONGER WEDGE TOWARD OUR AREA SATURDAY...AS
EVIDENCED BY THE SFC LI FIELD IN THE MODELS. AS SUCH SHOULD SEE A
COOLER DAY OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
OUTSIDE THE WEDGE LOOKING FOR HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.

MODELS FAVOR THE AFTERNOON WITH BETTER LOW LVL CONVERGENCE/UPPER
DIVERGENCE MOVE ACROSS WV/FAR WRN VA ALONG THE FRONT. THEREFORE KEPT
LIKELY TO LOW CATEGORICAL POPS GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE TO HIGH CHANCE EAST. THUNDER THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO A FAR
SW VA TO NW NC MTN LINE IN THE AFTERNOON...AND ISOLATED. NO SEVERE
THREAT EXPECT TOMORROW DUE TO WEDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
FOR WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALOFT...AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS
IN THE EAST. LOW PRESSURE WITH AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT EXTENDING
EASTWARD AND COLD FRONT FRONT TRAILING SOUTH WILL MOVES OUT OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SLIDES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DAMPEN OUR
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE NORTH TO AROUND 60
DEGREES IN THE SOUTH.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE
ARE INDICATIONS THAT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE WEDGE WILL BE LOSING
ITS GRIP ON THE AREA AND WE WILL ENTER THE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW. DYNAMIC SUPPORT...WITH
HEALTHY CAPES AND SOME SHEAR MAY BE ADEQUATE TO CREATE SOME
ORGANIZED CONVECTION SUNDAY. THE DAY THREE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK PLACED
OUR AREA UNDER MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THERE IS ALSO THE
POTENTIAL FOR HYDRO ISSUES AS PWATS WILL BE RUNNING WELL OVER ONE
INCH AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ADDED TO OUR RECENT WET SPELL.
TRAINING OF CELLS AND RAIN RATES WILL BE IMPORTANT WITH THESE STORMS
WITH ANY FLOODING POTENTIAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TRICKY WITH
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL VARY FROM THE
MID 60S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 70S IN THE SOUTH.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER
50S IN THE WEST TO NEAR 60 DEGREES IN THE EAST. BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE REGION WITH GENERALLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE IN NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE
WEST. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST
TO THE MID 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE WEST TO THE LOWER 50S IN
THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...


A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. AS SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE CENTER RIDE NORTHWARD ALONG THE
BOUNDARY EXPECT ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE
TIMING OF THE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE LIFTING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS A CHALLENGE. LOOKS LIKE
DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHES FAR ENOUGH NORTH WITH A LOW ON TUESDAY TO
PROVIDE US WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY GFS AND
ECMWF...DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES IN LOW PRESSURE AND ITS TIMING ALONG
WITH THE STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTH TO OUR WEST IN OHIO
VALLEY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. DECIDED TO KEEP
SCATTERED POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE WEST TO
THE LOWER 50S IN THE EAST. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY AND MOVES ACROSS REGION ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WITH
UNCERTAINTY...HELD ON TO THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THIS
BOUNDARY. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S IN THE WEST TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE EAST.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO AROUND 40 IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO NEAR 50 IN THE PIEDMONT. DRIER AIR ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY ON A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 735 PM EDT FRIDAY...

VRF CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION CURRENTLY. THE
EXCEPTION IS THE REGION OF VIRGINIA NORTH...AROUND...AND EAST OF
KLYH. MVFR CIGS ARE CONTINUING IN THIS AREA FROM THE DAYTIME
HOURS. ALL VISIBILITIES ARE VFR ACROSS THE REGION.

AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...LOOK FOR MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR
VSBYS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH SOME INROADS WESTWARD INTO THE NEW
RIVER VALLEY. THIS AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. THE REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY WILL BE DUE TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG AND/OR LIGHT DRIZZLE. KBLF AND KLWB
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITH AN AREA OF VFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH VSBYS WILL DROP INTO MVFR RANGE.

THIS ALL WILL BE TAKING PLACE AS MOISTURE LEVELS PROGRESSIVELY
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE WEDGE HOLDING FAST INTO THE DAY
SATURDAY. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED DEVELOP WITHIN THIS REGION
SATURDAY...WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY MORE LIKELY BY MID-DAY BETWEEN
KBLF-KLWB...OUTSIDE THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEDGE. LIMITED IF ANY
IMPROVEMENT IN FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WEDGE
UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND THESE WILL BE ONLY SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENTS. WHILE NOT INCLUDED IN THE KBLF TAF AT THIS
POINT...INSTABILITY MAY BE GREAT ENOUGH IN THIS REGION FOR SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH MVFR INCLUDING LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS
PERSIST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE RESIDUAL
STALLED FRONT RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...AND SUB VFR
CONDITIONS.

THE FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE COAST OF NC TO GA THROUGH MIDWEEK
AND COULD KEEP SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS AROUND...ESPECIALLY FROM
BCB-ROA-LYH SOUTH. MODELS STILL VARY ON THIS BUT CONSENSUS IS FOR
SOME AVIATION IMPACT IN TERMS OF SUB VFR CIGS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...DS/WP




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 291950
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
350 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
THROUGH SATURDAY KEEPING COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION. A WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT...POSSIBLY BRINING A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER NORTH OF I-64
THIS EVENING. A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE AREA BEGINNING
SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
TOUGH DAY TO SEE CLOUDS DIMINISH WITH THE WEDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE
ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC. THIS HAS THUS KEPT TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE
50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A DEAMPLIFYING UPPER
DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
AREA THIS EVENING. THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS AS WELL AS THE NAM
AND EVEN THE GFS SUGGEST THAT A FEW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
NRN VA/WV MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE E-SE TO AREAS NORTH OF I-
64 AND INTO THE EASTERN SHORE THIS EVENING. WITH LIMITED DEEP
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THE THE AREA BEING REMOVED FROM THE BETTER
UPPER SUPPORT...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH AND MD
EASTERN SHORE. OTHERWISE...WITH ALL OF THE RAIN AND ALL OF THE
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION...EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 50S WITH SOME UPPER
40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE WEDGE WILL STAY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE DAY ON SATURDAY
WITH COOL NORTHEAST FLOW AND LOW CLOUDS CONTINUING. MEANWHILE...THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS MOVES EASTWARD WITH ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL GRADUALLY ALLOW FOR
WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT TO GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE
APPALACHIANS LATER IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND INTO THE PIEDMONT AND
COASTAL PLAIN OF VA/NE NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE WEDGE
BREAKS DOWN. MAY SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF VIRGINIA AND THE MARYLAND
EASTERN SHORE. WILL THEREFORE INCREASE POPS TO CATEGORICAL SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR VA AND MD...BUT KEEP CHANCE POPS IN NE
NC AS THEY WILL CONTINUE TO BE REMOVED FROM THE BEST MOISTURE. AS
THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH ON SUNDAY...IT SEEMS CONCEIVABLE THAT THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA WILL DRY OUT AND MAY ACTUALLY SEE SOME
SUNSHINE BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE IN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
INDICATED MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR SUNDAY...AND THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED INSTABILITY IN
THE WARM SECTOR AND INCREASING UPPER WINDS IN RESPONSE TO THE
LOWERING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE AREA.

THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT WILL HANG UP ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE BEST UPPER FORCING REMAINS NORTH AND NORTHEAST
OF THE REGION WITH MUCH OF THE MOISTURE OFF INTO NEW ENGLAND. AS
SUCH...DESPITE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEING NEARLY STALLED ACROSS THE
AREA IT WILL BE TOUGH TO GENERATE MUCH PRECIPITATION. WILL MAINTAIN
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY HOWEVER GIVEN THE SURFACE BOUNDARY BEING
OVER THE AREA. MONDAY MAY END UP BEING THE WARMEST DAY FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS HOWEVER DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF PARTIAL SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES FOR RAIN AND NEAR
TO SLGTLY BLO NORMAL TEMPS. FOR MON NGT/TUE...A STALLED FRNTAL
BNDRY REMAINS JUST S OF OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH MID-LEVEL ENERGY
SWINGING THRU THE OH VALLEY. POPS ARE IN THE CHC RANGE (30-50%).
LO TEMPS MON NGT RANGE THRU THE 50S WITH HI TEMPS TUE IN THE
MID/UPR 60S. SIMILAR SETUP FOR WED (CHC POPS) AS SFC LO PRES
DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED FRNT. RETAINED SOME POPS INTO THU AS
WELL WITH AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS. TEMPS WILL CLIMB A
BIT EACH DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LO/MID 70S BY THU.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER NC THIS
AFTN...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. STRATUS
PERSISTS OVER THE AREA WITH CIGS AVERAGING 500-1200FT. IFR CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. -DZ IS ANTICIPATED
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN
INCREASING CHC FOR -RA AND DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY
NIGHT. RA IS LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A MINIMAL CHC
OF THUNDER SUNDAY AFTN. A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY...AND SETTLES S OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRNTAL BNDRY S OF THE LOCAL
AREA WITH HI PRES CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF ME RIDGING DOWN THE MID
ATLC CST. THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STAGNANT INTO
SAT...LEADING TO ONSHORE FLOW AND ELEVATED SEAS OVER THE CSTL WTRS.
SEAS WILL REMAIN UP TO ~5 FT OVER NRN CSTL WTRS THRU AT LEAST SAT
MORNG...SO EXTENDED THE SCA HEADLINE THERE THRU MIDDAY SAT...AND
THIS MAY PSBLY NEED TO BE EXTENDED LATER INTO THE DAY. SUB-SCA NE
FLOW TNGT/SAT BCMS SELY THEN SLY SAT NGT INTO SUN AS SFC LO PRES
MOVES THRU THE OH VALLEY. THIS LO WILL DROP A COLD FRNT INTO THE
LOCAL AREA SUN NGT/MON...WHICH BCMS STALLED IN THE VICINITY ERLY TO
MID NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...SUB-SCA CONDS WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...AJZ/DAP
MARINE...AJZ/MAS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 291930
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
330 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM ACROSS BY SUNDAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EDT FRIDAY...

WEDGE STILL HOLDING ON OVER THE PIEDMONT MAINLY EAST OF LYNCHBURG AS
FAR AS CLOUDS GO. TEMPERATURES RANGING WIDELY FROM AROUND 80 IN THE
FOOTHILLS OF NORTH CAROLINA...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE ROANOKE AND
NEW RIVER VALLEY...TO AROUND 60 OUT TOWARD BUCKINGHAM TO KEYSVILLE.

AS WE HEAD THROUGH THIS EVENING...SKIES WILL STAY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY EXCEPT MOSTLY CLOUDY NORTHEAST OF LYH.

MODELS ARE FAVORING SOME TURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDS
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS MOVING WESTWARD AGAIN WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE POSSIBLE NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT UPSLOPE
COMPONENT AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUPPORT MUCH.

WILL HAVE TO SEE WHERE THE MCS OVER WRN TN THIS AFTERNOON MOVES.
MODELS TAKE IT EAST TO NORTHEAST TOWARD ERN KY BY 12Z
SATURDAY...WEAKENING IT. SHOULD START TO SEE SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE
MOUNTAINS OF WV/FAR SW VA AROUND 8-10AM...WITH LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE
IN THE WEDGE. THINK THE HIGH OVER GREAT LAKES BEHIND SHORTWAVE
TONIGHT WILL BRING A STRONGER WEDGE TOWARD OUR AREA SATURDAY...AS
EVIDENCED BY THE SFC LI FIELD IN THE MODELS. AS SUCH SHOULD SEE A
COOLER DAY OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
OUTSIDE THE WEDGE LOOKING FOR HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.

MODELS FAVOR THE AFTERNOON WITH BETTER LOW LVL CONVERGENCE/UPPER
DIVERGENCE MOVE ACROSS WV/FAR WRN VA ALONG THE FRONT. THEREFORE KEPT
LIKELY TO LOW CATEGORICAL POPS GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE TO HIGH CHANCE EAST. THUNDER THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO A FAR
SW VA TO NW NC MTN LINE IN THE AFTERNOON...AND ISOLATED. NO SEVERE
THREAT EXPECT TOMORROW DUE TO WEDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
FOR WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALOFT...AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS
IN THE EAST. LOW PRESSURE WITH AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT EXTENDING
EASTWARD AND COLD FRONT FRONT TRAILING SOUTH WILL MOVES OUT OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SLIDES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DAMPEN OUR
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE NORTH TO AROUND 60
DEGREES IN THE SOUTH.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE
ARE INDICATIONS THAT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE WEDGE WILL BE LOSING
ITS GRIP ON THE AREA AND WE WILL ENTER THE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW. DYNAMIC SUPPORT...WITH
HEALTHY CAPES AND SOME SHEAR MAY BE ADEQUATE TO CREATE SOME
ORGANIZED CONVECTION SUNDAY. THE DAY THREE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK PLACED
OUR AREA UNDER MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THERE IS ALSO THE
POTENTIAL FOR HYDRO ISSUES AS PWATS WILL BE RUNNING WELL OVER ONE
INCH AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ADDED TO OUR RECENT WET SPELL.
TRAINING OF CELLS AND RAIN RATES WILL BE IMPORTANT WITH THESE STORMS
WITH ANY FLOODING POTENTIAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TRICKY WITH
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL VARY FROM THE
MID 60S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 70S IN THE SOUTH.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER
50S IN THE WEST TO NEAR 60 DEGREES IN THE EAST. BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE REGION WITH GENERALLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE IN NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE
WEST. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST
TO THE MID 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE WEST TO THE LOWER 50S IN
THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...


A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. AS SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE CENTER RIDE NORTHWARD ALONG THE
BOUNDARY EXPECT ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE
TIMING OF THE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE LIFTING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS A CHALLENGE. LOOKS LIKE
DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHES FAR ENOUGH NORTH WITH A LOW ON TUESDAY TO
PROVIDE US WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY GFS AND
ECMWF...DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES IN LOW PRESSURE AND ITS TIMING ALONG
WITH THE STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTH TO OUR WEST IN OHIO
VALLEY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. DECIDED TO KEEP
SCATTERED POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE WEST TO
THE LOWER 50S IN THE EAST. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY AND MOVES ACROSS REGION ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WITH
UNCERTAINTY...HELD ON TO THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THIS
BOUNDARY. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S IN THE WEST TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE EAST.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO AROUND 40 IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO NEAR 50 IN THE PIEDMONT. DRIER AIR ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY ON A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM EDT FRIDAY...

OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW CLOUDS HAVE DECREASED
AT LYH...THOUGH LEFT IN A TEMPO FOR ANOTHER HOUR FOR MVFR BKN
CIGS.

LOOKING AT GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE WEST...WESTERLY AT 15 TO 20 KTS.

TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACCELERATE FROM EAST TO
WEST WHILE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST. AS SUCH
WILL BE DEALING WITH LOW CIGS AND FOG INTO THE EAST...WITH FOG
POSSIBLE FROM BCB WEST...EXCEPT BLF. AS THE MOISTURE INCREASES
LATE TONIGHT THE FOG WILL BECOME LESS AN ISSUE BUT LOW CLOUDS WILL
BE HOLDING STEADY FROM BCB/ROA EAST WITH DRIZZLE DEVELOPING BY
11-15Z. CIGS WILL DROP TO UNDER 1KFT AT ALL LOCATIONS EAST OF A
WV/VA BORDER LINE...THIS INCLUDES BCB/ROA.

WILL START TO SEE LIGHT RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS MOVE IN LATE SAT MORNING
IN THE BLF/LWB AREA WITH CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR...THOUGH KEEPING
VSBYS AT 6SM OR MORE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN LOWER CIGS FROM ROA EAST TONIGHT
AND MEDIUM FOG BCB.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH MVFR INCLUDING LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS
RETURN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE RESIDUAL STALLED FRONT RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...AND SUB VFR CONDITIONS.

THE FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE COAST OF NC TO GA THROUGH MIDWEEK
AND COULD KEEP SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS AROUND...ESPECIALLY FROM
BCB-ROA-LYH SOUTH. MODELS STILL VARY ON THIS BUT CONSENSUS IS FOR
SOME AVIATION IMPACT IN TERMS OF SUB VFR CIGS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...AMS/JH/WP




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 291921
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
321 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
THROUGH SATURDAY KEEPING COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION. A WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT...POSSIBLY BRINING A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER NORTH OF I-64
THIS EVENING. A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE AREA BEGINNING
SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
TOUGH DAY TO SEE CLOUDS DIMINISH WITH THE WEDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE
ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC. THIS HAS THUS KEPT TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE
50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A DEAMPLIFYING UPPER
DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
AREA THIS EVENING. THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS AS WELL AS THE NAM
AND EVEN THE GFS SUGGEST THAT A FEW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
NRN VA/WV MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE E-SE TO AREAS NORTH OF I-
64 AND INTO THE EASTERN SHORE THIS EVENING. WITH LIMITED DEEP
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THE THE AREA BEING REMOVED FROM THE BETTER
UPPER SUPPORT...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH AND MD
EASTERN SHORE. OTHERWISE...WITH ALL OF THE RAIN AND ALL OF THE
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION...EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 50S WITH SOME UPPER
40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
THE WEDGE WILL STAY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE DAY ON SATURDAY
WITH COOL NORTHEAST FLOW AND LOW CLOUDS CONTINUING. MEANWHILE...THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS MOVES EASTWARD WITH ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL GRADUALLY ALLOW FOR
WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT TO GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE
APPALACHIANS LATER IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND INTO THE PIEDMONT AND
COASTAL PLAIN OF VA/NE NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE WEDGE
BREAKS DOWN. MAY SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF VIRGINIA AND THE MARYLAND
EASTERN SHORE. WILL THEREFORE INCREASE POPS TO CATEGORICAL SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR VA AND MD...BUT KEEP CHANCE POPS IN NE
NC AS THEY WILL CONTINUE TO BE REMOVED FROM THE BEST MOISTURE. AS
THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH ON SUNDAY...IT SEEMS CONCEIVABLE THAT THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA WILL DRY OUT AND MAY ACTUALLY SEE SOME
SUNSHINE BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE IN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
INDICATED MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR SUNDAY...AND THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED INSTABILITY IN
THE WARM SECTOR AND INCREASING UPPER WINDS IN RESPONSE TO THE
LOWERING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE AREA.

THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT WILL HANG UP ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE BEST UPPER FORCING REMAINS NORTH AND NORTHEAST
OF THE REGION WITH MUCH OF THE MOISTURE OFF INTO NEW ENGLAND. AS
SUCH...DESPITE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEING NEARLY STALLED ACROSS THE
AREA IT WILL BE TOUGH TO GENERATE MUCH PRECIPITATION. WILL MAINTAIN
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY HOWEVER GIVEN THE SURFACE BOUNDARY BEING
OVER THE AREA. MONDAY MAY END UP BEING THE WARMEST DAY FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS HOWEVER DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF PARTIAL SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFFSHORE MON WITH LINGERING MOISTURE AND
LIFT PROVIDING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. THEREAFTER...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE WRN CONUS...RESULTING IN TROUGHING THRU
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ECMWF CONTINUES TO STALL THE FRONT ALONG
THE COAST MON DUE TO WEAKER UPPER LEVEL FORCING COMPARED TO ITS
GFS COUNTERPART. GFS PUSHES THE FRONT OFF THE SHORE WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. PREFER THE GFS BASED ON THE
PATTERN...BUT WILL NOT COMPLETELY DISCOUNT THE ECMWF. WILL KEEP
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INLAND AND LOW END CHANCE POPS ALONG
THE COAST TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY TUE AND WEDS AS THE ECMWF
LIFTS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S (COOLER ALONG THE COAST). WARMEST DAY BEING MON WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID/POSSIBLY UPPER 70S. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER NC THIS
AFTN...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. STRATUS
PERSISTS OVER THE AREA WITH CIGS AVERAGING 500-1200FT. IFR CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. -DZ IS ANTICIPATED
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN
INCREASING CHC FOR -RA AND DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY
NIGHT. RA IS LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A MINIMAL CHC
OF THUNDER SUNDAY AFTN. A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY...AND SETTLES S OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES AND LIFTS ENE OFF THE COAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A NE WIND AOB 15KT. SEAS HAVE REACHED 5FT AT BUOY 44009
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THE CURRENT FORECAST OF 4-5FT SEAS
REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO BE CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
SATURDAY...WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN E WIND AOB 15KT WITH 3-4FT
SEAS...AND 2-3FT WAVES IN THE BAY. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL TRIGGER A WIND SHIFT TO
SE SATURDAY NIGHT...AND SSW BY SUNDAY...WITH SPEEDS REMAINING AOB
15KT. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A
COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. THIS COLD FRONT
SETTLES S OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS N OF THE REGION. SEAS AVERAGE 3-4FT LATER IN THE WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH 2-3FT WAVES IN THE BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MRD
NEAR TERM...MRD
SHORT TERM...MRD
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ/DAP
MARINE...AJZ




000
FXUS61 KLWX 291915
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
315 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WAVER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY...THEN LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MID- ATLANTIC
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MRNG PCPN HAS LIFTED INTO PA. WEAK S/WV IN NW PA ATTM WL TRACK EWD
TAFTN-TNGT. THERE MAY BE A FEW ASSOCD SHRA IN CWFA...BUT UPSTREAM
RDR ATTM LOOKS UNIMPRESSIVE. HV BEEN TRIMMING POPS AND WL CONT
TO DO SO. THE MOST NOTICEABLE ASPECT OF THE FCST WL BE THE XTNSV
CLDCVR...WHICH AFFECTS MOST OF THE CWFA XCPT FOR THE CENTRAL SHEN
VLY AND MUCH OF THE APLCNS. STALLED BNDRY SEEMS TO HV WIGGLED NWD.
/EKN 2PM TEMP 70F WHILE DCA REMAINS AT 53F./ THE PASSAGE OF THE
VORT SHUD NUDGE IT SWD AGN.

FOR THE OVNGT HRS...CONTD OVERRUNNING SHUD SUPPORT DZ. THAT WL BE
THE PRIMARY PCPN WORDING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TNGT. AM HOLDING W/
PERSISTENCE WRT MIN-T...WHICH MEANS 45-50F N AND LWR 50S S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE MOST RECENT MDL RUNS /06Z AND 12Z/ ARE TRENDING WETTER...AND
THUS HV INCREASED POPS A PINCH FOR LATE DAY SAT...AND FURTHER INTO
CAT TERRITORY FOR SAT NGT AND SUN.

SAT CULPRIT WL BE ISENT LIFT...WHICH IMPRV THRU THE DAY. BY LT
DAY...HV LKLY POPS. A SOLID SWATH OF MSTR EMINATES FM THE GLFMEX
/PWAT EXCEEDS AN INCH/...WHICH SUPPORTS DECISION TO INCR TO CAT
POPS BY SAT NGT...AS WELL AS INCR TO MDT RAFL IN OUR DATABASE.

SFC LOPRES AND H5 VORT TRACK ALONG THE STALLED BNDRY UP THE OHVLY
SUN INTO SUN NGT. THIS PATH TAKES THE BNDRY N OF THE CWA...AND
DISLODGES LLVL WEDGE. AM A BIT SKEPTICAL OF FULL SCOURING DUE TO
CLIMO...BUT AT THE VERY LEAST IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THERE WL BE AN
ELEVATED UNSTBL LYR. ISENT LIFT/MSTR ADVCTN WL CONT TO FUEL THIS
SYSTEM. AM ATTEMPTING TO PROVIDE A LTL DEFINITION BY CAPTURING A
DIURNAL MIN /RELATIVELY SPEAKING/ IN THE MRNG...FLLWD BY CAT POPS
WHEN DAYTIME HEATING WL HV THE BIGGER IMPACT. IN ADDITION...AM A
LTL MORE EXPANSIVE IN AREA OF CHC THUNDER...AT LEAST FM AN
ELEVATED SENSE. SHEAR LOOKS GOOD...BUT AM CHALLENGED TO SEE TOO
MUCH SFC BASED INSTBY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY...BUT THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IT RODE IN ON WILL REMAIN STALLED NEAR THE REGION THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. MULTIPLE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE ALONG IT...AS THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE
FOR THIS ACTIVE PATTERN PERSISTS OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS
WILL ALSO LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH 70.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FLGT CONDS ON THE CUSP BTWN MVFR AND IFR. BELIEVE WL HV IMPRVMNT
THRU THE AFTN BEFORE CONDS DROP ONCE AGN. HV KEPT ALL TAFS AT
MVFR TNGT...ALTHO IFR /OR LWR/ CERTAINLY WITHIN THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY.

CONDS WL GRDLY IMPRV ONCE AGN SAT...ALTHO FLGT RESTRICTIONS
REMAIN. THERE IS A CHC AT BRIEF VFR PRIOR TO RAFL ARRIVING. ATTM
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO CARVE OUT A WINDOW OF VFR IN THE TAFS.

LT AFTN OR EVE SAT CONDS WL DROP AS RA OVERSPREADS THE AREA. RA
MAY BE MDT TO BRIEFLY HVY SAT NGT INTO SUN. FLGT RESTRICTIONS WL
BE WIDESPREAD.

POOR FLYING CONDS CARRY OVER INTO SUN...THO BREAKS IN THE OVC PSBL
AS BDRY ATTEMPTS TO WIGGLE N OF THE TERMINALS. HWVR THAT ALSO
YIELDS A THUNDER RISK.

SUB-VFR PSBL MON-TUE IN ANY LWR CIGS/-RA W/ FRONT STALLED NEARBY.
WINDS GENERALLY NELY 10 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
PREV FCST REMAINS ON TRACK. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY. GENERALLY EXPECTING 5- 10 KT WITH OCCASIONAL INCREASES
TO 15 KT. LIGHT FOG AND DZ WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES.

NEXT ROUND OF RAIN AND ASSOCIATED LLJ REACHES WATERS BY ELY SAT
EVNG. AM KEEPING WINDS UNDER SCA CRITERIA THRU SAT NGT EVEN THO
WINDS ALOFT INCREASE DUE TO POOR MIXING. MIXING MAY IMPROVE ON
SUN...PSBLY AFTN/EVE...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THAT RATHER LOW.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCA
CONDITIONS ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE SUN-MON WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING
ON MONDAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS
SHOULD RESULT IN A WEAK ENOUGH GRADIENT TO PRECLUDE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES STILL AT OR BELOW A HALF-FOOT ABV NORMAL. WL CONT
TO MONITOR...THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS OF POTL INUNDATION THRU THE
WKND. SUN COMES THE CLOSEST.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM/HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...HTS/DFH
MARINE...HTS/DFH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 291915
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
315 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WAVER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY...THEN LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MID- ATLANTIC
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MRNG PCPN HAS LIFTED INTO PA. WEAK S/WV IN NW PA ATTM WL TRACK EWD
TAFTN-TNGT. THERE MAY BE A FEW ASSOCD SHRA IN CWFA...BUT UPSTREAM
RDR ATTM LOOKS UNIMPRESSIVE. HV BEEN TRIMMING POPS AND WL CONT
TO DO SO. THE MOST NOTICEABLE ASPECT OF THE FCST WL BE THE XTNSV
CLDCVR...WHICH AFFECTS MOST OF THE CWFA XCPT FOR THE CENTRAL SHEN
VLY AND MUCH OF THE APLCNS. STALLED BNDRY SEEMS TO HV WIGGLED NWD.
/EKN 2PM TEMP 70F WHILE DCA REMAINS AT 53F./ THE PASSAGE OF THE
VORT SHUD NUDGE IT SWD AGN.

FOR THE OVNGT HRS...CONTD OVERRUNNING SHUD SUPPORT DZ. THAT WL BE
THE PRIMARY PCPN WORDING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TNGT. AM HOLDING W/
PERSISTENCE WRT MIN-T...WHICH MEANS 45-50F N AND LWR 50S S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE MOST RECENT MDL RUNS /06Z AND 12Z/ ARE TRENDING WETTER...AND
THUS HV INCREASED POPS A PINCH FOR LATE DAY SAT...AND FURTHER INTO
CAT TERRITORY FOR SAT NGT AND SUN.

SAT CULPRIT WL BE ISENT LIFT...WHICH IMPRV THRU THE DAY. BY LT
DAY...HV LKLY POPS. A SOLID SWATH OF MSTR EMINATES FM THE GLFMEX
/PWAT EXCEEDS AN INCH/...WHICH SUPPORTS DECISION TO INCR TO CAT
POPS BY SAT NGT...AS WELL AS INCR TO MDT RAFL IN OUR DATABASE.

SFC LOPRES AND H5 VORT TRACK ALONG THE STALLED BNDRY UP THE OHVLY
SUN INTO SUN NGT. THIS PATH TAKES THE BNDRY N OF THE CWA...AND
DISLODGES LLVL WEDGE. AM A BIT SKEPTICAL OF FULL SCOURING DUE TO
CLIMO...BUT AT THE VERY LEAST IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THERE WL BE AN
ELEVATED UNSTBL LYR. ISENT LIFT/MSTR ADVCTN WL CONT TO FUEL THIS
SYSTEM. AM ATTEMPTING TO PROVIDE A LTL DEFINITION BY CAPTURING A
DIURNAL MIN /RELATIVELY SPEAKING/ IN THE MRNG...FLLWD BY CAT POPS
WHEN DAYTIME HEATING WL HV THE BIGGER IMPACT. IN ADDITION...AM A
LTL MORE EXPANSIVE IN AREA OF CHC THUNDER...AT LEAST FM AN
ELEVATED SENSE. SHEAR LOOKS GOOD...BUT AM CHALLENGED TO SEE TOO
MUCH SFC BASED INSTBY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY...BUT THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IT RODE IN ON WILL REMAIN STALLED NEAR THE REGION THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. MULTIPLE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE ALONG IT...AS THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE
FOR THIS ACTIVE PATTERN PERSISTS OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS
WILL ALSO LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH 70.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FLGT CONDS ON THE CUSP BTWN MVFR AND IFR. BELIEVE WL HV IMPRVMNT
THRU THE AFTN BEFORE CONDS DROP ONCE AGN. HV KEPT ALL TAFS AT
MVFR TNGT...ALTHO IFR /OR LWR/ CERTAINLY WITHIN THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY.

CONDS WL GRDLY IMPRV ONCE AGN SAT...ALTHO FLGT RESTRICTIONS
REMAIN. THERE IS A CHC AT BRIEF VFR PRIOR TO RAFL ARRIVING. ATTM
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO CARVE OUT A WINDOW OF VFR IN THE TAFS.

LT AFTN OR EVE SAT CONDS WL DROP AS RA OVERSPREADS THE AREA. RA
MAY BE MDT TO BRIEFLY HVY SAT NGT INTO SUN. FLGT RESTRICTIONS WL
BE WIDESPREAD.

POOR FLYING CONDS CARRY OVER INTO SUN...THO BREAKS IN THE OVC PSBL
AS BDRY ATTEMPTS TO WIGGLE N OF THE TERMINALS. HWVR THAT ALSO
YIELDS A THUNDER RISK.

SUB-VFR PSBL MON-TUE IN ANY LWR CIGS/-RA W/ FRONT STALLED NEARBY.
WINDS GENERALLY NELY 10 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
PREV FCST REMAINS ON TRACK. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY. GENERALLY EXPECTING 5- 10 KT WITH OCCASIONAL INCREASES
TO 15 KT. LIGHT FOG AND DZ WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES.

NEXT ROUND OF RAIN AND ASSOCIATED LLJ REACHES WATERS BY ELY SAT
EVNG. AM KEEPING WINDS UNDER SCA CRITERIA THRU SAT NGT EVEN THO
WINDS ALOFT INCREASE DUE TO POOR MIXING. MIXING MAY IMPROVE ON
SUN...PSBLY AFTN/EVE...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THAT RATHER LOW.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCA
CONDITIONS ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE SUN-MON WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING
ON MONDAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS
SHOULD RESULT IN A WEAK ENOUGH GRADIENT TO PRECLUDE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES STILL AT OR BELOW A HALF-FOOT ABV NORMAL. WL CONT
TO MONITOR...THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS OF POTL INUNDATION THRU THE
WKND. SUN COMES THE CLOSEST.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM/HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...HTS/DFH
MARINE...HTS/DFH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 291848
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
248 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
STALLED BOUNDARY OVER NORTH CAROLINA GETS SHUNTED FARTHER SOUTH
TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WITH DRY CONDITIONS LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM STARTS TO SPREAD
RAIN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SATURDAY EVENING...CONTINUING
THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...
LIGHT SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN NECK AND MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE.
OTHERWISE...THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTN UNTIL THE NRN SHORTWAVE CAN SKIRT BY
THE AREA AND BRING MORE SHOWERS TO NRN COUNTIES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS NC FINALLY GETS PUSHED SWD THIS
AFTN/EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS
FEATURE WILL CAUSE THE WEDGE TO SLOWLY ERODE THROUGH TODAY...
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ALONG/NE OF INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR AND IN
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S SW. THERE IS ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY/LIFT PRESENT WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE TO PRODUCE LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS N-NE OF THE RICHMOND AREA INTO THE MD/VA EASTERN
SHORE...PRIMARILY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE AREA
WILL BE DRY BUT CLOUDY. COOL TEMPS AGAIN TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
LOWER 50S (POSSIBLY UPPER 40S NRN NECK AND MD LOWER EASTERN
SHORE).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD
MAINLY BE DRY BUT CONTINUED CLOUDY FOR MOST OF SATURDAY. EXPECT
ANOTHER DAY OF COOL DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

THE SFC HIGH SLIDES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE IN THE DAY
SATURDAY AS A SFC WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. THE FRONT IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED IN
THE CNTRL PLAINS SATURDAY...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE TN
VALLEY SUNDAY AND CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. A
SHORTWAVE EJECTING FROM THE LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO PUSH INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION SATURDAY EVENING AND SHEAR APART. THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH LOW- LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW
TO PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTN/EVENING...DESPITE
LACKLUSTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT/LIFT FROM THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE.
HAVE MAINTAINED THE INTRODUCTION OF CHANCE POPS IN THE ERN
PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTN HOURS WITH RAIN BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. ALL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN AFTN REGARDING PRECIP TIMING AND PLACEMENT. BEST
PRECIP CHANCES OCCUR INVOF WARM FRONT SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING
WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY SUN AFTN. THE CNTRL PLAINS SFC
LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
AND BRING ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF RAIN TO THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME
MINOR DISCREPANCIES REGARDING EXACT TRACK OF THE SFC LOW...HOWEVER
THERE ARE GREATER DIFFERENCES BTWN MODELS IN PRECIP PLACEMENT.
DESPITE THESE UNCERTAINTY FACTORS...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
ANTICIPATED SUN AFTN/EVENING. THE LOW SHOULD EXIT THE COAST BY
MONDAY MORNING BUT THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO WHEN/HOW FAR
WEST THE PRECIP DIMINISHES.

LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE 50S. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY FINALLY REBOUND
TWD MORE SEASONAL VALUES AS THE REGION SITS WITH THE WARM SECTOR
AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING LOW. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S SW TO
UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S NE. LOWS SUN NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFFSHORE MON WITH LINGERING MOISTURE AND
LIFT PROVIDING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. THEREAFTER...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE WRN CONUS...RESULTING IN TROUGHING THRU
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ECMWF CONTINUES TO STALL THE FRONT ALONG
THE COAST MON DUE TO WEAKER UPPER LEVEL FORCING COMPARED TO ITS
GFS COUNTERPART. GFS PUSHES THE FRONT OFF THE SHORE WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. PREFER THE GFS BASED ON THE
PATTERN...BUT WILL NOT COMPLETELY DISCOUNT THE ECMWF. WILL KEEP
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INLAND AND LOW END CHANCE POPS ALONG
THE COAST TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY TUE AND WEDS AS THE ECMWF
LIFTS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S (COOLER ALONG THE COAST). WARMEST DAY BEING MON WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID/POSSIBLY UPPER 70S. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER NC THIS
AFTN...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. STRATUS
PERSISTS OVER THE AREA WITH CIGS AVERAGING 500-1200FT. IFR CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. -DZ IS ANTICIPATED
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN
INCREASING CHC FOR -RA AND DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY
NIGHT. RA IS LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A MINIMAL CHC
OF THUNDER SUNDAY AFTN. A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY...AND SETTLES S OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES AND LIFTS ENE OFF THE COAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A NE WIND AOB 15KT. SEAS HAVE REACHED 5FT AT BUOY 44009
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THE CURRENT FORECAST OF 4-5FT SEAS
REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO BE CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
SATURDAY...WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN E WIND AOB 15KT WITH 3-4FT
SEAS...AND 2-3FT WAVES IN THE BAY. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL TRIGGER A WIND SHIFT TO
SE SATURDAY NIGHT...AND SSW BY SUNDAY...WITH SPEEDS REMAINING AOB
15KT. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A
COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. THIS COLD FRONT
SETTLES S OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS N OF THE REGION. SEAS AVERAGE 3-4FT LATER IN THE WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH 2-3FT WAVES IN THE BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ/DAP
MARINE...AJZ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 291848
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
248 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
STALLED BOUNDARY OVER NORTH CAROLINA GETS SHUNTED FARTHER SOUTH
TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WITH DRY CONDITIONS LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM STARTS TO SPREAD
RAIN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SATURDAY EVENING...CONTINUING
THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...
LIGHT SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN NECK AND MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE.
OTHERWISE...THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTN UNTIL THE NRN SHORTWAVE CAN SKIRT BY
THE AREA AND BRING MORE SHOWERS TO NRN COUNTIES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS NC FINALLY GETS PUSHED SWD THIS
AFTN/EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS
FEATURE WILL CAUSE THE WEDGE TO SLOWLY ERODE THROUGH TODAY...
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ALONG/NE OF INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR AND IN
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S SW. THERE IS ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY/LIFT PRESENT WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE TO PRODUCE LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS N-NE OF THE RICHMOND AREA INTO THE MD/VA EASTERN
SHORE...PRIMARILY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE AREA
WILL BE DRY BUT CLOUDY. COOL TEMPS AGAIN TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
LOWER 50S (POSSIBLY UPPER 40S NRN NECK AND MD LOWER EASTERN
SHORE).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD
MAINLY BE DRY BUT CONTINUED CLOUDY FOR MOST OF SATURDAY. EXPECT
ANOTHER DAY OF COOL DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

THE SFC HIGH SLIDES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE IN THE DAY
SATURDAY AS A SFC WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. THE FRONT IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED IN
THE CNTRL PLAINS SATURDAY...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE TN
VALLEY SUNDAY AND CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. A
SHORTWAVE EJECTING FROM THE LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO PUSH INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION SATURDAY EVENING AND SHEAR APART. THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH LOW- LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW
TO PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTN/EVENING...DESPITE
LACKLUSTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT/LIFT FROM THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE.
HAVE MAINTAINED THE INTRODUCTION OF CHANCE POPS IN THE ERN
PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTN HOURS WITH RAIN BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. ALL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN AFTN REGARDING PRECIP TIMING AND PLACEMENT. BEST
PRECIP CHANCES OCCUR INVOF WARM FRONT SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING
WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY SUN AFTN. THE CNTRL PLAINS SFC
LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
AND BRING ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF RAIN TO THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME
MINOR DISCREPANCIES REGARDING EXACT TRACK OF THE SFC LOW...HOWEVER
THERE ARE GREATER DIFFERENCES BTWN MODELS IN PRECIP PLACEMENT.
DESPITE THESE UNCERTAINTY FACTORS...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
ANTICIPATED SUN AFTN/EVENING. THE LOW SHOULD EXIT THE COAST BY
MONDAY MORNING BUT THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO WHEN/HOW FAR
WEST THE PRECIP DIMINISHES.

LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE 50S. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY FINALLY REBOUND
TWD MORE SEASONAL VALUES AS THE REGION SITS WITH THE WARM SECTOR
AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING LOW. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S SW TO
UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S NE. LOWS SUN NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFFSHORE MON WITH LINGERING MOISTURE AND
LIFT PROVIDING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. THEREAFTER...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE WRN CONUS...RESULTING IN TROUGHING THRU
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ECMWF CONTINUES TO STALL THE FRONT ALONG
THE COAST MON DUE TO WEAKER UPPER LEVEL FORCING COMPARED TO ITS
GFS COUNTERPART. GFS PUSHES THE FRONT OFF THE SHORE WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. PREFER THE GFS BASED ON THE
PATTERN...BUT WILL NOT COMPLETELY DISCOUNT THE ECMWF. WILL KEEP
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INLAND AND LOW END CHANCE POPS ALONG
THE COAST TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY TUE AND WEDS AS THE ECMWF
LIFTS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S (COOLER ALONG THE COAST). WARMEST DAY BEING MON WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID/POSSIBLY UPPER 70S. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER NC THIS
AFTN...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. STRATUS
PERSISTS OVER THE AREA WITH CIGS AVERAGING 500-1200FT. IFR CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. -DZ IS ANTICIPATED
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN
INCREASING CHC FOR -RA AND DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY
NIGHT. RA IS LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A MINIMAL CHC
OF THUNDER SUNDAY AFTN. A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY...AND SETTLES S OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES AND LIFTS ENE OFF THE COAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A NE WIND AOB 15KT. SEAS HAVE REACHED 5FT AT BUOY 44009
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THE CURRENT FORECAST OF 4-5FT SEAS
REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO BE CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
SATURDAY...WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN E WIND AOB 15KT WITH 3-4FT
SEAS...AND 2-3FT WAVES IN THE BAY. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL TRIGGER A WIND SHIFT TO
SE SATURDAY NIGHT...AND SSW BY SUNDAY...WITH SPEEDS REMAINING AOB
15KT. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A
COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. THIS COLD FRONT
SETTLES S OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS N OF THE REGION. SEAS AVERAGE 3-4FT LATER IN THE WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH 2-3FT WAVES IN THE BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ/DAP
MARINE...AJZ




000
FXUS61 KRNK 291729
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
129 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL RESIDE OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING SOUTHWEST FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC INTO THE PIEDMONT OF VIRGINIA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
SAY STRETCHED FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF TEXAS/OKLAHOMA EAST TO
SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA DURING THIS TIME. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY A
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...AND WILL REACH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY MONDAY MORNING.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM EDT FRIDAY...

OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE IMPACTED BY A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS
IS SHALLOW ENOUGH WITH ANY LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT TO KEEP US DRY.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WEAKENING IN THE EAST WITH ITS WEDGE
ERODING TO AT LEAST THE LYNCHBURG AREA. WILL STILL MAINTAIN SOME
CLOUDINESS ACROSS OUR VIRGINIA PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT STILL
SHOULD BE SOME SEMBLANCE OF SUNSHINE POKING THROUGH FROM TIME TO
TIME. FORECAST HIGHS STILL LOOK GOOD FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST...RUNNING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...TO UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S EAST...EXCEPT MID 60S TO LOWER
70S FROM AMHERST TO LYNCHBURG EAST AND NORTHEAST TO BUCKINGHAM.

WITH A DRIER LOOK IN THE NEAR TERM...DECIDED TO TAKE OUT ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER OUR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

THE LOW WEAKENS TONIGHT AND DEEPER EASTERLY WINDS RETURN TO THE
LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE AREA.

HAVE LEFT A LOW PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN THE EASTERN
UPSLOPE AREAS FOR LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE LOW
CLOUDS FILLING BACK IN OVER EASTERN COUNTIES...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BE SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. THE
CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT FRIDAY...

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE TRANSITIONING DURING THE PERIOD TO A WESTERN
RIDGE/EASTERN TROF REGIME. THIS WILL BRING GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT UP
AND OVER A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SLIDES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
THIS WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION FROM
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW MOVED BY TO OUR NORTH
THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE WEDGE WILL BE LOSING
ITS GRIP ON THE AREA AND WE WILL ENTER THE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW. DYNAMIC SUPPORT MAY BE ADEQUATE TO
CREATE SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTION SO THIS WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY...
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HYDRO ISSUES AS PWATS WILL BE RUNNING WELL
OVER ONE INCH AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ADDED TO OUR RECENT WET
SPELL. THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH GENERALLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BUT SOME LINGERING MOISTURE
IN NWLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SATURDAY WHEN WEDGE EFFECTS WILL LIKELY KEEP
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 324 PM EDT THURSDAY...

A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH ON TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. LEANED TOWARDS GFS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND
DRIER AIR OVER THE WET ECMWF. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
DROP INTO THE MID 40S IN THE WEST TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE EAST.
HARD TO JUDGE HOW FAR NORTH MOISTURE ADVECTED WITH A DISTURBANCE
THAT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES MIDWEEK INTO THURSDAY.
FOLLOWED THE SUPERBLEND WITH COOLING TREND AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM EDT FRIDAY...

OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW CLOUDS HAVE DECREASED
AT LYH...THOUGH LEFT IN A TEMPO FOR ANOTHER HOUR FOR MVFR BKN
CIGS.

LOOKING AT GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE WEST...WESTERLY AT 15 TO 20 KTS.

TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACCELERATE FROM EAST TO
WEST WHILE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST. AS SUCH
WILL BE DEALING WITH LOW CIGS AND FOG INTO THE EAST...WITH FOG
POSSIBLE FROM BCB WEST...EXCEPT BLF. AS THE MOISTURE INCREASES
LATE TONIGHT THE FOG WILL BECOME LESS AN ISSUE BUT LOW CLOUDS WILL
BE HOLDING STEADY FROM BCB/ROA EAST WITH DRIZZLE DEVELOPING BY
11-15Z. CIGS WILL DROP TO UNDER 1KFT AT ALL LOCATIONS EAST OF A
WV/VA BORDER LINE...THIS INCLUDES BCB/ROA.

WILL START TO SEE LIGHT RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS MOVE IN LATE SAT MORNING
IN THE BLF/LWB AREA WITH CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR...THOUGH KEEPING
VSBYS AT 6SM OR MORE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN LOWER CIGS FROM ROA EAST TONIGHT
AND MEDIUM FOG BCB.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH MVFR INCLUDING LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS
RETURN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE RESIDUAL STALLED FRONT RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...AND SUB VFR CONDITIONS.

THE FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE COAST OF NC TO GA THROUGH MIDWEEK
AND COULD KEEP SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS AROUND...ESPECIALLY FROM
BCB-ROA-LYH SOUTH. MODELS STILL VARY ON THIS BUT CONSENSUS IS FOR
SOME AVIATION IMPACT IN TERMS OF SUB VFR CIGS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/WP
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...AMS/JH/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 291508
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1108 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL RESIDE OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING SOUTHWEST FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC INTO THE PIEDMONT OF VIRGINIA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
SAY STRETCHED FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF TEXAS/OKLAHOMA EAST TO
SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA DURING THIS TIME. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY A
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...AND WILL REACH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY MONDAY MORNING.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM EDT FRIDAY...

OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE IMPACTED BY A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS
IS SHALLOW ENOUGH WITH ANY LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT TO KEEP US DRY.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WEAKENING IN THE EAST WITH ITS WEDGE
ERODING TO AT LEAST THE LYNCHBURG AREA. WILL STILL MAINTAIN SOME
CLOUDINESS ACROSS OUR VIRGINIA PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT STILL
SHOULD BE SOME SEMBLANCE OF SUNSHINE POKING THROUGH FROM TIME TO
TIME. FORECAST HIGHS STILL LOOK GOOD FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST...RUNNING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...TO UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S EAST...EXCEPT MID 60S TO LOWER
70S FROM AMHERST TO LYNCHBURG EAST AND NORTHEAST TO BUCKINGHAM.

WITH A DRIER LOOK IN THE NEAR TERM...DECIDED TO TAKE OUT ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER OUR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

THE LOW WEAKENS TONIGHT AND DEEPER EASTERLY WINDS RETURN TO THE
LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE AREA.

HAVE LEFT A LOW PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN THE EASTERN
UPSLOPE AREAS FOR LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE LOW
CLOUDS FILLING BACK IN OVER EASTERN COUNTIES...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BE SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. THE
CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT FRIDAY...

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE TRANSITIONING DURING THE PERIOD TO A WESTERN
RIDGE/EASTERN TROF REGIME. THIS WILL BRING GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT UP
AND OVER A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SLIDES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
THIS WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION FROM
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW MOVED BY TO OUR NORTH
THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE WEDGE WILL BE LOSING
ITS GRIP ON THE AREA AND WE WILL ENTER THE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW. DYNAMIC SUPPORT MAY BE ADEQUATE TO
CREATE SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTION SO THIS WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY...
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HYDRO ISSUES AS PWATS WILL BE RUNNING WELL
OVER ONE INCH AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ADDED TO OUR RECENT WET
SPELL. THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH GENERALLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BUT SOME LINGERING MOISTURE
IN NWLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SATURDAY WHEN WEDGE EFFECTS WILL LIKELY KEEP
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 324 PM EDT THURSDAY...

A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH ON TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. LEANED TOWARDS GFS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND
DRIER AIR OVER THE WET ECMWF. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
DROP INTO THE MID 40S IN THE WEST TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE EAST.
HARD TO JUDGE HOW FAR NORTH MOISTURE ADVECTED WITH A DISTURBANCE
THAT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES MIDWEEK INTO THURSDAY.
FOLLOWED THE SUPERBLEND WITH COOLING TREND AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 725 AM EDT FRIDAY...

EXPECT IFR CLOUDS TO ERODE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN THE
MORNING...HOWEVER...KLYH MAY NOT IMPROVE TO VFR UNTIL AROUND
18Z/2PM...IF AT ALL. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON IMPROVING TO VFR AT
KLYH.

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT FROM THE
WEST. SURFACE A A LOW LEVEL WINDS COME BACK AROUND TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT...BRINGING IFR CLOUDS AND MVFR FOG BACK
INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING
OF THE RETURN OF THE CONDITIONS. NCAR ENSEMBLE FORECAST SHOWED IFR
CEILINGS RETURNING TO KDAN AND KROA AFTER 07Z/1AM.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH MVFR INCLUDING LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS
RETURN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE RESIDUAL STALLED FRONT RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...AND SUB VFR CONDITIONS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE REGION MONDAY BRINGING
IMPROVING FLYING CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON AND VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/WP
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...AMS/JH




000
FXUS61 KLWX 291403
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1003 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED TO THE SOUTH TODAY. ANOTHER WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE BOUNDARY
WILL DROP SOUTH SATURDAY...THEN LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A RELATIVE LULL IN ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH
ONLY A FEW SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DZ AND LIGHT FOG...MAINLY
ACRS NE MD. WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EVIDENT EAST OF THE MTNS IN
VA...WITH MAIN FRONT STILL DRAPED ACROSS NC.

ON THE WHOLE...FCST IN GOOD SHAPE. GUIDANCE HINTING THAT CLOUDS
MAY ERODE SOME BY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. PERHAPS NOT CLEARING...BUT AT LEAST LIFTING. ELSEWHERE
EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO HOLD FIRM. THIS COULD LEAD TO A GRADIENT IN
TEMPERATURES...WITH COOLEST TO THE NE. HAVE SHADED A LITTLE BELOW
MODEL BLEND. BASED ON LTST LAMP...MAXT FCST SEEMS ON TRACK. W/ A
LACK OF ORGANIZED FORCING...IT SHOULD BE ONE OF THE DRIER PDS IN
THE NEXT CPL OF DAYS.

VORT MAX CURRENTLY OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL PASS TO THE NORTH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING A RENEWED CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS
MOVING FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE KEPT POPS AT CHANCE
GIVEN EXPECTED SCATTERED/LIGHT NATURE. THIS WILL ALSO SERVE TO GIVE
THE FRONTAL ZONE A NUDGE TO THE SOUTH AND DRY OUT THE ATMOSPHERE...
EXCEPT AT THE LOW LEVELS. WITH A CONTINUED OVERRUNNING FLOW...HAVE
KEPT PATCHY DZ WORDING IN THE FORECAST LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT FOG
POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TOO. SAME TREND...ONLY SMALL DROP IN TEMPS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE TREND FOR THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO BE LESS DRY. NOT A TOTAL
WASHOUT...BUT PROLONGED BREAKS WILL BE SPARSE ONCE ISENTROPIC LIFT
BEGINS AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. RAIN COULD ARRIVE IN
THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY MORNING...AND AT LEAST A CHANCE OF IT
SPREADING EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES.
BUT BROUGHT POPS TO CATEGORICAL SATURDAY NIGHT AND WORDED AS
RAIN...LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SLUG OF MOISTURE...AND PERHAPS BE MODERATE
AT TIMES. TRENDED MAX T ON SATURDAY DOWN A LITTLE.

SFC LOW AND OPENING UPPER WAVE WILL BE APPROACHING THE OHIO VALLEY
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. CONTINUED LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
MEAN HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS CONTINUING. BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IS WHAT
HAPPENS TO WEDGE FRONT ON SUNDAY. PLAYING TOWARD MODEL BIASES...ONCE
AGAIN WENT BELOW THE MODEL BLEND. HOWEVER...CENTRAL VA MAY BE ABLE
TO BREAK INTO THE WARM SECTOR. AND LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL BE FAIRLY
STEEP ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER NORTH
AND CHANCE SOUTH. WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THERE COULD BE
SOME STRONGER STORMS TOWARD CENTRAL VA...AND THIS AREA IS INCLUDED
IN SPC DAY 3 MARGINAL RISK. MODEL CONSENSUS ATTM IS FOR LOW TO BE
PULLING AWAY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF THE LOW PRESSURE DEPARTING
THE AREA FASTER ON MONDAY...THOUGH PASSING TROUGH AND NORTHEAST
FLOW MAY KEEP A FEW SHOWERS GOING ACROSS THE REGION. THE FLOW MAY
TURN NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO BREAK
AND SOME SUN TO REACH THE GROUND...AND ALLOW TEMPS TO NEAR 70.
GUIDANCE MOSTLY AGREES ON A DRIER TREND MONDAY NIGHT BUT TUESDAY
ONWARD IS STILL QUESTIONABLE WITH THE EC STILL SHOWING A WAVE
MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF...WHILE THE GFS IS MUCH SLOWER
BRINGING A WAVE UP. BOTH MODELS DO SHOW THE WAVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WEDNESDAY BUT ARE SHUNTED EAST OF THE PREVIOUS EC
RUNS...KEEPING US MOSTLY DRY. GFS AND EC BOTH HAVE ANOTHER FRONT
SLIDE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY WITH MUCH COOLER AIR
BEHIND IT. GFS IS FAIRLY DRY WHILE EC GENERATES A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SHOWERS. OVERALL IT WILL BE A COOLER THAN NORMAL WEEK WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY NEAR OR BELOW 70.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. MOST GUIDANCE HAS
CIGS LIFTING TO MVFR BY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW
HIGH. WL STICK WITH PERSISTENCE FOR NOW. COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE WILL PRECLUDE TAF MENTION FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE EXPECT PREDOMINANTLY DZ.

CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD IFR
EXPECTED WITH LOW CIGS...DZ...AND FOG. SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT ON
SATURDAY WITH PERHAPS VFR DURING THE MIDDAY. BROAD AREA OF
RAIN...PERHAPS MODERATE...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. SHOWERS CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THUNDER POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY CHO. TEMPORAL RESOLUTION OF
CIGS/VSBYS BECOMES LESS CERTAIN DURING THIS TIME.

CIGS AND VIS LIKELY TO IMPROVE GRADUALLY MONDAY WITH VFR PROBABLE
BY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. GENERALLY EXPECTING 5-
10 KT WITH OCCASIONAL INCREASES TO 15 KT. LIGHT FOG AND DZ WILL
CONTINUE AT TIMES. NEXT ROUND OF RAIN AND ASSOCIATED LLJ IS A LITTLE
QUICKER NOW AND SCA CONDITIONS MAY BE REACHED AS EARLY AS SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS POSSIBILITY WILL REMAIN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...
ALTHOUGH PERHAPS NOT CONTINUOUSLY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCA CONDITIONS REMAIN
POSSIBLE WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING ON MONDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES AT OR BELOW A HALF-FOOT ABV ASTRO NORMS ATTM. AT
THAT DEPARTURE...NO ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THE UPCOMING TIDE
CYCLE. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE WATCHING ANOMALIES AS WITH THE
CONTINUED NORTHEAST FLOW...WATER LEVELS MAY RE-BUILD IN THE BAY
AND POTOMAC.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...HTS/ADS
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...RCM
AVIATION...HTS/ADS/RCM
MARINE...ADS/RCM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS/RCM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 291128
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
728 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS
MORNING...PUSHING COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS BY THIS
AFTERNOON. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND WILL REACH THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION BY MONDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...

WESTERN EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS HAD ADVANCED WEST INTO THE NEW RIVER
VALLEY AND NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS OVERNIGHT. LOCATIONS THAT HAD
RAIN ON THURSDAY THEN WERE STILL UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY EARLY THIS
MORNING WERE REPORTING FOG. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST VIRGINIA
WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND BRING A BOUNDARY THROUGH MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE WEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
THE FOOTHILLS. THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE WIND WILL HELP ERODE
THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.

IN THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA...THE WIND MAY REMAIN FROM THE
EAST OR NORTHEAST. MODELS SUGGEST CLOUDS MAY NOT CLEAR TODAY...OR IF
THEY DO...THERE WILL ONLY BE A BRIEF WINDOW BEFORE CLOUDS FILL BACK
IN. THE LOW WEAKENS TONIGHT AND DEEPER EASTERLY WINDS RETURN TO THE
LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
AREA.

LOCATIONS IN THE EAST THAT REMAIN IN THE CLOUDS TODAY WILL HAVE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THAT DO NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 60S BUT WITH THE
APRIL SUN...JUST A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL WARM TEMPERATURES
QUICKLY.

SHOWERS HAD EXITED THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE LEFT A LOW PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR NORTHEAST COUNTY WARNING AREA TODAY...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORT WAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH...AND IN THE
EASTERN UPSLOPE AREAS FOR LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE LOW
CLOUDS FILLING BACK IN OVER EASTERN COUNTIES...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BE SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. THE
CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT FRIDAY...

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE TRANSITIONING DURING THE PERIOD TO A WESTERN
RIDGE/EASTERN TROF REGIME. THIS WILL BRING GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT UP
AND OVER A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SLIDES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
THIS WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION FROM
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW MOVED BY TO OUR NORTH
THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE WEDGE WILL BE LOSING
ITS GRIP ON THE AREA AND WE WILL ENTER THE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW. DYNAMIC SUPPORT MAY BE ADEQUATE TO
CREATE SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTION SO THIS WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY...
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HYDRO ISSUES AS PWATS WILL BE RUNNING WELL
OVER ONE INCH AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ADDED TO OUR RECENT WET
SPELL. THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH GENERALLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BUT SOME LINGERING MOISTURE
IN NWLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SATURDAY WHEN WEDGE EFFECTS WILL LIKELY KEEP
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 324 PM EDT THURSDAY...

A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH ON TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. LEANED TOWARDS GFS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND
DRIER AIR OVER THE WET ECMWF. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
DROP INTO THE MID 40S IN THE WEST TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE EAST.
HARD TO JUDGE HOW FAR NORTH MOISTURE ADVECTED WITH A DISTURBANCE
THAT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES MIDWEEK INTO THURSDAY.
FOLLOWED THE SUPERBLEND WITH COOLING TREND AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 725 AM EDT FRIDAY...

EXPECT IFR CLOUDS TO ERODE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN THE
MORNING...HOWEVER...KLYH MAY NOT IMPROVE TO VFR UNTIL AROUND
18Z/2PM...IF AT ALL. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON IMPROVING TO VFR AT
KLYH.

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT FROM THE
WEST. SURFACE A A LOW LEVEL WINDS COME BACK AROUND TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT...BRINGING IFR CLOUDS AND MVFR FOG BACK
INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING
OF THE RETURN OF THE CONDITIONS. NCAR ENSEMBLE FORECAST SHOWED IFR
CEILINGS RETURNING TO KDAN AND KROA AFTER 07Z/1AM.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH MVFR INCLUDING LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS
RETURN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE RESIDUAL STALLED FRONT RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...AND SUB VFR CONDITIONS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE REGION MONDAY BRINGING
IMPROVING FLYING CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON AND VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...AMS/JH




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 291107
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
707 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
STALLED BOUNDARY OVER NORTH CAROLINA GETS SHUNTED FARTHER SOUTH
TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WITH DRY CONDITIONS LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM STARTS TO SPREAD
RAIN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SATURDAY EVENING...CONTINUING
THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
LIGHT SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN NECK AND MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE.
OTHERWISE...THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTN UNTIL THE NRN SHORTWAVE CAN SKIRT BY
THE AREA AND BRING MORE SHOWERS TO NRN COUNTIES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS NC FINALLY GETS PUSHED SWD THIS
AFTN/EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS
FEATURE WILL CAUSE THE WEDGE TO SLOWLY ERODE THROUGH TODAY...
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ALONG/NE OF INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR AND IN
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S SW. THERE IS ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY/LIFT PRESENT WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE TO PRODUCE LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS N-NE OF THE RICHMOND AREA INTO THE MD/VA EASTERN
SHORE...PRIMARILY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE AREA
WILL BE DRY BUT CLOUDY. COOL TEMPS AGAIN TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
LOWER 50S (POSSIBLY UPPER 40S NRN NECK AND MD LOWER EASTERN
SHORE).

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD
MAINLY BE DRY BUT CONTINUED CLOUDY FOR MOST OF SATURDAY. EXPECT
ANOTHER DAY OF COOL DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

THE SFC HIGH SLIDES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE IN THE DAY
SATURDAY AS A SFC WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. THE FRONT IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED IN
THE CNTRL PLAINS SATURDAY...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE TN
VALLEY SUNDAY AND CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. A
SHORTWAVE EJECTING FROM THE LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO PUSH INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION SATURDAY EVENING AND SHEAR APART. THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH LOW- LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW
TO PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTN/EVENING...DESPITE
LACKLUSTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT/LIFT FROM THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE.
HAVE MAINTAINED THE INTRODUCTION OF CHANCE POPS IN THE ERN
PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTN HOURS WITH RAIN BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. ALL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN AFTN REGARDING PRECIP TIMING AND PLACEMENT. BEST
PRECIP CHANCES OCCUR INVOF WARM FRONT SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING
WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY SUN AFTN. THE CNTRL PLAINS SFC
LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
AND BRING ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF RAIN TO THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME
MINOR DISCREPANCIES REGARDING EXACT TRACK OF THE SFC LOW...HOWEVER
THERE ARE GREATER DIFFERENCES BTWN MODELS IN PRECIP PLACEMENT.
DESPITE THESE UNCERTAINTY FACTORS...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
ANTICIPATED SUN AFTN/EVENING. THE LOW SHOULD EXIT THE COAST BY
MONDAY MORNING BUT THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO WHEN/HOW FAR
WEST THE PRECIP DIMINISHES.

LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE 50S. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY FINALLY REBOUND
TWD MORE SEASONAL VALUES AS THE REGION SITS WITH THE WARM SECTOR
AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING LOW. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S SW TO
UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S NE. LOWS SUN NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFFSHORE MON WITH LINGERING MOISTURE AND
LIFT PROVIDING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. THEREAFTER...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE WRN CONUS...RESULTING IN TROUGHING THRU
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ECMWF CONTINUES TO STALL THE FRONT ALONG
THE COAST MON DUE TO WEAKER UPPER LEVEL FORCING COMPARED TO ITS
GFS COUNTERPART. GFS PUSHES THE FRONT OFF THE SHORE WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. PREFER THE GFS BASED ON THE
PATTERN...BUT WILL NOT COMPLETELY DISCOUNT THE ECMWF. WILL KEEP
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INLAND AND LOW END CHANCE POPS ALONG
THE COAST TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY TUE AND WEDS AS THE ECMWF
LIFTS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S (COOLER ALONG THE COAST). WARMEST DAY BEING MON WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID/POSSIBLY UPPER 70S. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER NC THIS
MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
RIDGING SWD INTO THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. STRATUS PERSISTS OVER THE
AREA WITH CIGS AVERAGING 300-600FT. IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH VSBY OF 2-4SM THROUGH
14Z. A SIMILAR SURFACE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TODAY. HOWEVER...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH TIME-HEIGHT
CROSS-SECTIONS INDICATING THAT CIGS LIFT THIS AFTN FOR
RIC/PHF/ORF/ECG. SBY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IFR THROUGH THE DAY.
STRATUS IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT
LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASING CHC FOR
-RA AND DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY
AND ACROSS THE NRN MID- ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. RA IS LIKELY SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A MINIMAL CHC OF THUNDER SUNDAY AFTN. A
COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...AND SETTLES S OF THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES AND LIFTS ENE OFF THE COAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A NE WIND AOB 15KT. SEAS HAVE REACHED 5FT AT BUOY 44009
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THE CURRENT FORECAST OF 4-5FT SEAS
REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO BE CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
SATURDAY...WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN E WIND AOB 15KT WITH 3-4FT
SEAS...AND 2-3FT WAVES IN THE BAY. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL TRIGGER A WIND SHIFT TO
SE SATURDAY NIGHT...AND SSW BY SUNDAY...WITH SPEEDS REMAINING AOB
15KT. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A
COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. THIS COLD FRONT
SETTLES S OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS N OF THE REGION. SEAS AVERAGE 3-4FT LATER IN THE WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH 2-3FT WAVES IN THE BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 291102
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
702 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
STALLED BOUNDARY OVER NORTH CAROLINA GETS SHUNTED SOUTHWARD TODAY
AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WITH DRY CONDITIONS LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM STARTS TO SPREAD
RAIN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SATURDAY EVENING...CONTINUING
THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LAST REMNANTS OF RAIN ARE PUSHING ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NE NC AS OF
345 AM...WITH LIGHT SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE FARTHER NORTH
WITHIN THE COOLER AND MORE STABLE CAD WEDGE. AREAS OF FOG HAVE
DEVELOPED IN THE POST-RAIN ENVIRONMENT WITH VISIBILITIES AVERAGING
3-5 MILES AND MORE ISOLATED POCKETS OF 1-2 MILES. NOT MUCH CHANGE
EXPECTED TO THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS...
THEREFORE VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN STEADY THROUGH 900-1000 AM
(DO NOT ANTICIPATE THEM TO TANK AT SUNRISE) AND FOR VERY LOW
STRATUS TO PERSIST.

THE STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS NC FINALLY GETS PUSHED SWD THIS
AFTN/EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS
FEATURE WILL CAUSE THE WEDGE TO SLOWLY ERODE THROUGH TODAY...
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ALONG/NE OF INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR AND IN
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S SW. THERE IS ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY/LIFT PRESENT WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE TO PRODUCE LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS N-NE OF THE RICHMOND AREA INTO THE MD/VA EASTERN
SHORE...PRIMARILY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE AREA
WILL BE DRY BUT CLOUDY. COOL TEMPS AGAIN TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
LOWER 50S (POSSIBLY UPPER 40S NRN NECK AND MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE).

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD
MAINLY BE DRY BUT CONTINUED CLOUDY FOR MOST OF SATURDAY. EXPECT
ANOTHER DAY OF COOL DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

THE SFC HIGH SLIDES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE IN THE DAY
SATURDAY AS A SFC WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. THE FRONT IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED IN
THE CNTRL PLAINS SATURDAY...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE TN
VALLEY SUNDAY AND CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. A
SHORTWAVE EJECTING FROM THE LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO PUSH INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION SATURDAY EVENING AND SHEAR APART. THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH LOW- LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW
TO PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTN/EVENING...DESPITE
LACKLUSTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT/LIFT FROM THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE.
HAVE MAINTAINED THE INTRODUCTION OF CHANCE POPS IN THE ERN
PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTN HOURS WITH RAIN BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. ALL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN AFTN REGARDING PRECIP TIMING AND PLACEMENT. BEST
PRECIP CHANCES OCCUR INVOF WARM FRONT SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING
WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY SUN AFTN. THE CNTRL PLAINS SFC
LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
AND BRING ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF RAIN TO THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME
MINOR DISCREPANCIES REGARDING EXACT TRACK OF THE SFC LOW...HOWEVER
THERE ARE GREATER DIFFERENCES BTWN MODELS IN PRECIP PLACEMENT.
DESPITE THESE UNCERTAINTY FACTORS...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
ANTICIPATED SUN AFTN/EVENING. THE LOW SHOULD EXIT THE COAST BY
MONDAY MORNING BUT THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO WHEN/HOW FAR
WEST THE PRECIP DIMINISHES.

LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE 50S. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY FINALLY REBOUND
TWD MORE SEASONAL VALUES AS THE REGION SITS WITH THE WARM SECTOR
AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING LOW. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S SW TO
UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S NE. LOWS SUN NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFFSHORE MON WITH LINGERING MOISTURE AND
LIFT PROVIDING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. THEREAFTER...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE WRN CONUS...RESULTING IN TROUGHING THRU
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ECMWF CONTINUES TO STALL THE FRONT ALONG
THE COAST MON DUE TO WEAKER UPPER LEVEL FORCING COMPARED TO ITS
GFS COUNTERPART. GFS PUSHES THE FRONT OFF THE SHORE WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. PREFER THE GFS BASED ON THE
PATTERN...BUT WILL NOT COMPLETELY DISCOUNT THE ECMWF. WILL KEEP
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INLAND AND LOW END CHANCE POPS ALONG
THE COAST TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY TUE AND WEDS AS THE ECMWF
LIFTS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S (COOLER ALONG THE COAST). WARMEST DAY BEING MON WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID/POSSIBLY UPPER 70S. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER NC THIS
MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
RIDGING SWD INTO THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. STRATUS PERSISTS OVER THE
AREA WITH CIGS AVERAGING 300-600FT. IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH VSBY OF 2-4SM THROUGH
14Z. A SIMILAR SURFACE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TODAY. HOWEVER...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH TIME-HEIGHT
CROSS-SECTIONS INDICATING THAT CIGS LIFT THIS AFTN FOR
RIC/PHF/ORF/ECG. SBY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IFR THROUGH THE DAY.
STRATUS IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT
LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASING CHC FOR
-RA AND DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY
AND ACROSS THE NRN MID- ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. RA IS LIKELY SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A MINIMAL CHC OF THUNDER SUNDAY AFTN. A
COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...AND SETTLES S OF THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES AND LIFTS ENE OFF THE COAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A NE WIND AOB 15KT. SEAS HAVE REACHED 5FT AT BUOY 44009
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THE CURRENT FORECAST OF 4-5FT SEAS
REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO BE CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
SATURDAY...WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN E WIND AOB 15KT WITH 3-4FT
SEAS...AND 2-3FT WAVES IN THE BAY. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL TRIGGER A WIND SHIFT TO
SE SATURDAY NIGHT...AND SSW BY SUNDAY...WITH SPEEDS REMAINING AOB
15KT. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A
COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. THIS COLD FRONT
SETTLES S OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS N OF THE REGION. SEAS AVERAGE 3-4FT LATER IN THE WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH 2-3FT WAVES IN THE BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290844
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
444 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
STALLED BOUNDARY OVER NORTH CAROLINA GETS SHUNTED SOUTHWARD TODAY
AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WITH DRY CONDITIONS LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM STARTS TO SPREAD
RAIN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SATURDAY EVENING...CONTINUING
THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LAST REMNANTS OF RAIN ARE PUSHING ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NE NC AS OF
345 AM...WITH LIGHT SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE FARTHER NORTH
WITHIN THE COOLER AND MORE STABLE CAD WEDGE. AREAS OF FOG HAVE
DEVELOPED IN THE POST-RAIN ENVIRONMENT WITH VISIBILITIES AVERAGING
3-5 MILES AND MORE ISOLATED POCKETS OF 1-2 MILES. NOT MUCH CHANGE
EXPECTED TO THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS...
THEREFORE VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN STEADY THROUGH 900-1000 AM
(DO NOT ANTICIPATE THEM TO TANK AT SUNRISE) AND FOR VERY LOW
STRATUS TO PERSIST.

THE STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS NC FINALLY GETS PUSHED SWD THIS
AFTN/EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS
FEATURE WILL CAUSE THE WEDGE TO SLOWLY ERODE THROUGH TODAY...
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ALONG/NE OF INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR AND IN
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S SW. THERE IS ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY/LIFT PRESENT WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE TO PRODUCE LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS N-NE OF THE RICHMOND AREA INTO THE MD/VA EASTERN
SHORE...PRIMARILY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE AREA
WILL BE DRY BUT CLOUDY. COOL TEMPS AGAIN TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
LOWER 50S (POSSIBLY UPPER 40S NRN NECK AND MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE).

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD
MAINLY BE DRY BUT CONTINUED CLOUDY FOR MOST OF SATURDAY. EXPECT
ANOTHER DAY OF COOL DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

THE SFC HIGH SLIDES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE IN THE DAY
SATURDAY AS A SFC WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. THE FRONT IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED IN
THE CNTRL PLAINS SATURDAY...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE TN
VALLEY SUNDAY AND CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. A
SHORTWAVE EJECTING FROM THE LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO PUSH INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION SATURDAY EVENING AND SHEAR APART. THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH LOW- LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW
TO PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTN/EVENING...DESPITE
LACKLUSTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT/LIFT FROM THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE.
HAVE MAINTAINED THE INTRODUCTION OF CHANCE POPS IN THE ERN
PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTN HOURS WITH RAIN BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. ALL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN AFTN REGARDING PRECIP TIMING AND PLACEMENT. BEST
PRECIP CHANCES OCCUR INVOF WARM FRONT SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING
WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY SUN AFTN. THE CNTRL PLAINS SFC
LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
AND BRING ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF RAIN TO THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME
MINOR DISCREPANCIES REGARDING EXACT TRACK OF THE SFC LOW...HOWEVER
THERE ARE GREATER DIFFERENCES BTWN MODELS IN PRECIP PLACEMENT.
DESPITE THESE UNCERTAINTY FACTORS...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
ANTICIPATED SUN AFTN/EVENING. THE LOW SHOULD EXIT THE COAST BY
MONDAY MORNING BUT THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO WHEN/HOW FAR
WEST THE PRECIP DIMINISHES.

LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE 50S. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY FINALLY REBOUND
TWD MORE SEASONAL VALUES AS THE REGION SITS WITH THE WARM SECTOR
AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING LOW. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S SW TO
UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S NE. LOWS SUN NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFFSHORE MON WITH LINGERING MOISTURE AND
LIFT PROVIDING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. THEREAFTER...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE WRN CONUS...RESULTING IN TROUGHING THRU
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ECMWF CONTINUES TO STALL THE FRONT ALONG
THE COAST MON DUE TO WEAKER UPPER LEVEL FORCING COMPARED TO ITS
GFS COUNTERPART. GFS PUSHES THE FRONT OFF THE SHORE WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. PREFER THE GFS BASED ON THE
PATTERN...BUT WILL NOT COMPLETELY DISCOUNT THE ECMWF. WILL KEEP
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INLAND AND LOW END CHANCE POPS ALONG
THE COAST TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY TUE AND WEDS AS THE ECMWF
LIFTS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S (COOLER ALONG THE COAST). WARMEST DAY BEING MON WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID/POSSIBLY UPPER 70S. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER NC EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
RIDGING SWD INTO THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. STRATUS PERSISTS OVER THE
AREA WITH CIGS AVERAGING 300-600FT. EARLIER SHOWERS/TSTMS HAVE
WEAKENED AND MOVED OFFSHORE...WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS FROM SRN
VA INTO NE NC. IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...WITH VSBY FALLING TO 2-4SM BY 08Z. A SIMILAR
SURFACE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TODAY. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH TIME-HEIGHT CROSS-SECTIONS
INDICATING THAT CIGS LIFT THIS AFTN FOR RIC/PHF/ORF/ECG. SBY IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN IFR THROUGH THE DAY. STRATUS IS ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASING CHC FOR -RA AND DEGRADED
FLIGHT CONDITIONS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND ACROSS THE NRN
MID- ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. RA IS LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH A MINIMAL CHC OF THUNDER SUNDAY AFTN. A COLD FRONT
DROPS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...AND SETTLES S OF THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES AND LIFTS ENE OFF THE COAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A NE WIND AOB 15KT. SEAS HAVE REACHED 5FT AT BUOY 44009
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THE CURRENT FORECAST OF 4-5FT SEAS
REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO BE CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
SATURDAY...WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN E WIND AOB 15KT WITH 3-4FT
SEAS...AND 2-3FT WAVES IN THE BAY. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL TRIGGER A WIND SHIFT TO
SE SATURDAY NIGHT...AND SSW BY SUNDAY...WITH SPEEDS REMAINING AOB
15KT. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A
COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. THIS COLD FRONT
SETTLES S OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS N OF THE REGION. SEAS AVERAGE 3-4FT LATER IN THE WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH 2-3FT WAVES IN THE BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290844
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
444 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
STALLED BOUNDARY OVER NORTH CAROLINA GETS SHUNTED SOUTHWARD TODAY
AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WITH DRY CONDITIONS LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM STARTS TO SPREAD
RAIN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SATURDAY EVENING...CONTINUING
THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LAST REMNANTS OF RAIN ARE PUSHING ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NE NC AS OF
345 AM...WITH LIGHT SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE FARTHER NORTH
WITHIN THE COOLER AND MORE STABLE CAD WEDGE. AREAS OF FOG HAVE
DEVELOPED IN THE POST-RAIN ENVIRONMENT WITH VISIBILITIES AVERAGING
3-5 MILES AND MORE ISOLATED POCKETS OF 1-2 MILES. NOT MUCH CHANGE
EXPECTED TO THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS...
THEREFORE VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN STEADY THROUGH 900-1000 AM
(DO NOT ANTICIPATE THEM TO TANK AT SUNRISE) AND FOR VERY LOW
STRATUS TO PERSIST.

THE STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS NC FINALLY GETS PUSHED SWD THIS
AFTN/EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS
FEATURE WILL CAUSE THE WEDGE TO SLOWLY ERODE THROUGH TODAY...
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ALONG/NE OF INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR AND IN
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S SW. THERE IS ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY/LIFT PRESENT WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE TO PRODUCE LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS N-NE OF THE RICHMOND AREA INTO THE MD/VA EASTERN
SHORE...PRIMARILY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE AREA
WILL BE DRY BUT CLOUDY. COOL TEMPS AGAIN TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
LOWER 50S (POSSIBLY UPPER 40S NRN NECK AND MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE).

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD
MAINLY BE DRY BUT CONTINUED CLOUDY FOR MOST OF SATURDAY. EXPECT
ANOTHER DAY OF COOL DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

THE SFC HIGH SLIDES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE IN THE DAY
SATURDAY AS A SFC WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. THE FRONT IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED IN
THE CNTRL PLAINS SATURDAY...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE TN
VALLEY SUNDAY AND CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. A
SHORTWAVE EJECTING FROM THE LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO PUSH INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION SATURDAY EVENING AND SHEAR APART. THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH LOW- LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW
TO PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTN/EVENING...DESPITE
LACKLUSTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT/LIFT FROM THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE.
HAVE MAINTAINED THE INTRODUCTION OF CHANCE POPS IN THE ERN
PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTN HOURS WITH RAIN BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. ALL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN AFTN REGARDING PRECIP TIMING AND PLACEMENT. BEST
PRECIP CHANCES OCCUR INVOF WARM FRONT SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING
WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY SUN AFTN. THE CNTRL PLAINS SFC
LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
AND BRING ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF RAIN TO THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME
MINOR DISCREPANCIES REGARDING EXACT TRACK OF THE SFC LOW...HOWEVER
THERE ARE GREATER DIFFERENCES BTWN MODELS IN PRECIP PLACEMENT.
DESPITE THESE UNCERTAINTY FACTORS...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
ANTICIPATED SUN AFTN/EVENING. THE LOW SHOULD EXIT THE COAST BY
MONDAY MORNING BUT THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO WHEN/HOW FAR
WEST THE PRECIP DIMINISHES.

LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE 50S. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY FINALLY REBOUND
TWD MORE SEASONAL VALUES AS THE REGION SITS WITH THE WARM SECTOR
AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING LOW. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S SW TO
UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S NE. LOWS SUN NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFFSHORE MON WITH LINGERING MOISTURE AND
LIFT PROVIDING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. THEREAFTER...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE WRN CONUS...RESULTING IN TROUGHING THRU
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ECMWF CONTINUES TO STALL THE FRONT ALONG
THE COAST MON DUE TO WEAKER UPPER LEVEL FORCING COMPARED TO ITS
GFS COUNTERPART. GFS PUSHES THE FRONT OFF THE SHORE WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. PREFER THE GFS BASED ON THE
PATTERN...BUT WILL NOT COMPLETELY DISCOUNT THE ECMWF. WILL KEEP
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INLAND AND LOW END CHANCE POPS ALONG
THE COAST TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY TUE AND WEDS AS THE ECMWF
LIFTS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S (COOLER ALONG THE COAST). WARMEST DAY BEING MON WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID/POSSIBLY UPPER 70S. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER NC EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
RIDGING SWD INTO THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. STRATUS PERSISTS OVER THE
AREA WITH CIGS AVERAGING 300-600FT. EARLIER SHOWERS/TSTMS HAVE
WEAKENED AND MOVED OFFSHORE...WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS FROM SRN
VA INTO NE NC. IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...WITH VSBY FALLING TO 2-4SM BY 08Z. A SIMILAR
SURFACE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TODAY. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH TIME-HEIGHT CROSS-SECTIONS
INDICATING THAT CIGS LIFT THIS AFTN FOR RIC/PHF/ORF/ECG. SBY IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN IFR THROUGH THE DAY. STRATUS IS ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASING CHC FOR -RA AND DEGRADED
FLIGHT CONDITIONS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND ACROSS THE NRN
MID- ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. RA IS LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH A MINIMAL CHC OF THUNDER SUNDAY AFTN. A COLD FRONT
DROPS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...AND SETTLES S OF THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES AND LIFTS ENE OFF THE COAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A NE WIND AOB 15KT. SEAS HAVE REACHED 5FT AT BUOY 44009
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THE CURRENT FORECAST OF 4-5FT SEAS
REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO BE CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
SATURDAY...WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN E WIND AOB 15KT WITH 3-4FT
SEAS...AND 2-3FT WAVES IN THE BAY. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL TRIGGER A WIND SHIFT TO
SE SATURDAY NIGHT...AND SSW BY SUNDAY...WITH SPEEDS REMAINING AOB
15KT. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A
COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. THIS COLD FRONT
SETTLES S OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS N OF THE REGION. SEAS AVERAGE 3-4FT LATER IN THE WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH 2-3FT WAVES IN THE BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ




000
FXUS61 KRNK 290819
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
419 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS
MORNING...PUSHING COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS BY THIS
AFTERNOON. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND WILL REACH THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION BY MONDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...

WESTERN EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS HAD ADVANCED WEST INTO THE NEW RIVER
VALLEY AND NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS OVERNIGHT. LOCATIONS THAT HAD
RAIN ON THURSDAY THEN WERE STILL UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY EARLY THIS
MORNING WERE REPORTING FOG. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST VIRGINIA
WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND BRING A BOUNDARY THROUGH MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE WEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
THE FOOTHILLS. THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE WIND WILL HELP ERODE
THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.

IN THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA...THE WIND MAY REMAIN FROM THE
EAST OR NORTHEAST. MODELS SUGGEST CLOUDS MAY NOT CLEAR TODAY...OR IF
THEY DO...THERE WILL ONLY BE A BRIEF WINDOW BEFORE CLOUDS FILL BACK
IN. THE LOW WEAKENS TONIGHT AND DEEPER EASTERLY WINDS RETURN TO THE
LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
AREA.

LOCATIONS IN THE EAST THAT REMAIN IN THE CLOUDS TODAY WILL HAVE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THAT DO NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 60S BUT WITH THE
APRIL SUN...JUST A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL WARM TEMPERATURES
QUICKLY.

SHOWERS HAD EXITED THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE LEFT A LOW PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR NORTHEAST COUNTY WARNING AREA TODAY...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORT WAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH...AND IN THE
EASTERN UPSLOPE AREAS FOR LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE LOW
CLOUDS FILLING BACK IN OVER EASTERN COUNTIES...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BE SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. THE
CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT FRIDAY...

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE TRANSITIONING DURING THE PERIOD TO A WESTERN
RIDGE/EASTERN TROF REGIME. THIS WILL BRING GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT UP
AND OVER A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SLIDES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
THIS WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION FROM
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW MOVED BY TO OUR NORTH
THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE WEDGE WILL BE LOSING
ITS GRIP ON THE AREA AND WE WILL ENTER THE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW. DYNAMIC SUPPORT MAY BE ADEQUATE TO
CREATE SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTION SO THIS WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY...
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HYDRO ISSUES AS PWATS WILL BE RUNNING WELL
OVER ONE INCH AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ADDED TO OUR RECENT WET
SPELL. THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH GENERALLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BUT SOME LINGERING MOISTURE
IN NWLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SATURDAY WHEN WEDGE EFFECTS WILL LIKELY KEEP
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 324 PM EDT THURSDAY...

A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH ON TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. LEANED TOWARDS GFS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND
DRIER AIR OVER THE WET ECMWF. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
DROP INTO THE MID 40S IN THE WEST TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE EAST.
HARD TO JUDGE HOW FAR NORTH MOISTURE ADVECTED WITH A DISTURBANCE
THAT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES MIDWEEK INTO THURSDAY.
FOLLOWED THE SUPERBLEND WITH COOLING TREND AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM EDT FRIDAY...

SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED IFR CLOUDS EXPANDING WEST AND SOUTH OVER
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN  NORTH CAROLINA. AT THE 06Z START
OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD KBCB WAS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW
CLOUD SHIELD. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CONDITIONS AT KROA/KLYH/KDAN
WILL REMAIN IFR UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE. EXPECT CLOUDS TO ERODE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN THE MORNING...HOWEVER...KLYH MAY NOT
IMPROVE TO VFR UNTIL AROUND 18Z/2PM.

FOG WITH MVFR TO LIFR VISIBILITIES WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE THE SKY WAS
MOSTLY CLEAR AND WHERE THERE WAS RAIN ON THURSDAY. THIS FOG WILL
ALSO DISSIPATE DURING THE MORNING.

WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR AFTER 00Z/8PM.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH MVFR INCLUDING LOCALLY IFR
CONDITIONS RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE RESIDUAL STALLED FRONT
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...AND SUB VFR CONDITIONS.

A WEAK COLD SHOULD CROSS THE REGION MONDAY BRINGING IMPROVING
FLYING CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON AND VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...AMS/JH




000
FXUS61 KRNK 290819
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
419 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS
MORNING...PUSHING COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS BY THIS
AFTERNOON. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND WILL REACH THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION BY MONDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...

WESTERN EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS HAD ADVANCED WEST INTO THE NEW RIVER
VALLEY AND NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS OVERNIGHT. LOCATIONS THAT HAD
RAIN ON THURSDAY THEN WERE STILL UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY EARLY THIS
MORNING WERE REPORTING FOG. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST VIRGINIA
WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND BRING A BOUNDARY THROUGH MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE WEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
THE FOOTHILLS. THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE WIND WILL HELP ERODE
THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.

IN THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA...THE WIND MAY REMAIN FROM THE
EAST OR NORTHEAST. MODELS SUGGEST CLOUDS MAY NOT CLEAR TODAY...OR IF
THEY DO...THERE WILL ONLY BE A BRIEF WINDOW BEFORE CLOUDS FILL BACK
IN. THE LOW WEAKENS TONIGHT AND DEEPER EASTERLY WINDS RETURN TO THE
LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
AREA.

LOCATIONS IN THE EAST THAT REMAIN IN THE CLOUDS TODAY WILL HAVE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THAT DO NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 60S BUT WITH THE
APRIL SUN...JUST A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL WARM TEMPERATURES
QUICKLY.

SHOWERS HAD EXITED THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE LEFT A LOW PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR NORTHEAST COUNTY WARNING AREA TODAY...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORT WAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH...AND IN THE
EASTERN UPSLOPE AREAS FOR LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE LOW
CLOUDS FILLING BACK IN OVER EASTERN COUNTIES...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BE SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. THE
CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT FRIDAY...

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE TRANSITIONING DURING THE PERIOD TO A WESTERN
RIDGE/EASTERN TROF REGIME. THIS WILL BRING GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT UP
AND OVER A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SLIDES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
THIS WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION FROM
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW MOVED BY TO OUR NORTH
THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE WEDGE WILL BE LOSING
ITS GRIP ON THE AREA AND WE WILL ENTER THE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW. DYNAMIC SUPPORT MAY BE ADEQUATE TO
CREATE SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTION SO THIS WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY...
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HYDRO ISSUES AS PWATS WILL BE RUNNING WELL
OVER ONE INCH AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ADDED TO OUR RECENT WET
SPELL. THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH GENERALLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BUT SOME LINGERING MOISTURE
IN NWLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SATURDAY WHEN WEDGE EFFECTS WILL LIKELY KEEP
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 324 PM EDT THURSDAY...

A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH ON TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. LEANED TOWARDS GFS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND
DRIER AIR OVER THE WET ECMWF. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
DROP INTO THE MID 40S IN THE WEST TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE EAST.
HARD TO JUDGE HOW FAR NORTH MOISTURE ADVECTED WITH A DISTURBANCE
THAT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES MIDWEEK INTO THURSDAY.
FOLLOWED THE SUPERBLEND WITH COOLING TREND AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM EDT FRIDAY...

SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED IFR CLOUDS EXPANDING WEST AND SOUTH OVER
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN  NORTH CAROLINA. AT THE 06Z START
OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD KBCB WAS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW
CLOUD SHIELD. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CONDITIONS AT KROA/KLYH/KDAN
WILL REMAIN IFR UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE. EXPECT CLOUDS TO ERODE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN THE MORNING...HOWEVER...KLYH MAY NOT
IMPROVE TO VFR UNTIL AROUND 18Z/2PM.

FOG WITH MVFR TO LIFR VISIBILITIES WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE THE SKY WAS
MOSTLY CLEAR AND WHERE THERE WAS RAIN ON THURSDAY. THIS FOG WILL
ALSO DISSIPATE DURING THE MORNING.

WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR AFTER 00Z/8PM.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH MVFR INCLUDING LOCALLY IFR
CONDITIONS RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE RESIDUAL STALLED FRONT
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...AND SUB VFR CONDITIONS.

A WEAK COLD SHOULD CROSS THE REGION MONDAY BRINGING IMPROVING
FLYING CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON AND VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...AMS/JH




000
FXUS61 KLWX 290801
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
401 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED TO THE SOUTH TODAY. ANOTHER WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE BOUNDARY
WILL DROP SOUTH SATURDAY...THEN LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A RELATIVE LULL IN ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH ONLY
A FEW SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DZ AND LIGHT FOG. WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE EVIDENT EAST OF THE MTNS IN VA...WITH MAIN FRONT STILL
DRAPED ACROSS NC. SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WVA MAY SPARK A FEW
SHOWERS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA...OTHERWISE PRECIP SHOULD LARGELY BE DZ.

GUIDANCE HINTING THAT CLOUDS MAY ERODE SOME BY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. PERHAPS NOT CLEARING...BUT AT
LEAST LIFTING. ELSEWHERE EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO HOLD FIRM. SHOULD BE
ENOUGH DRYING TO CUT BACK ON DZ/FOG THOUGH. THIS COULD LEAD TO A
GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES...WITH COOLEST TO THE NE. HAVE SHADED A
LITTLE BELOW MODEL BLEND.

VORT MAX CURRENTLY OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL PASS TO THE NORTH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING A RENEWED CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS
MOVING FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE KEPT POPS AT CHANCE
GIVEN EXPECTED SCATTERED/LIGHT NATURE. THIS WILL ALSO SERVE TO GIVE
THE FRONTAL ZONE A NUDGE TO THE SOUTH AND DRY OUT THE
ATMOSPHERE...EXCEPT AT THE LOW LEVELS. WITH A CONTINUED OVERRUNNING
FLOW...HAVE KEPT PATCHY DZ WORDING IN THE FORECAST LATE TONIGHT.
LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TOO. SAME TREND...ONLY SMALL DROP IN
TEMPS OVERNIGHT.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE TREND FOR THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO BE LESS DRY. NOT A TOTAL
WASHOUT...BUT PROLONGED BREAKS WILL BE SPARSE ONCE ISENTROPIC LIFT
BEGINS AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. RAIN COULD ARRIVE IN
THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY MORNING...AND AT LEAST A CHANCE OF IT
SPREADING EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES.
BUT BROUGHT POPS TO CATEGORICAL SATURDAY NIGHT AND WORDED AS
RAIN...LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SLUG OF MOISTURE...AND PERHAPS BE MODERATE
AT TIMES. TRENDED MAX T ON SATURDAY DOWN A LITTLE.

SFC LOW AND OPENING UPPER WAVE WILL BE APPROACHING THE OHIO VALLEY
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. CONTINUED LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
MEAN HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS CONTINUING. BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IS WHAT
HAPPENS TO WEDGE FRONT ON SUNDAY. PLAYING TOWARD MODEL BIASES...ONCE
AGAIN WENT BELOW THE MODEL BLEND. HOWEVER...CENTRAL VA MAY BE ABLE
TO BREAK INTO THE WARM SECTOR. AND LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL BE FAIRLY
STEEP ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER NORTH
AND CHANCE SOUTH. WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THERE COULD BE
SOME STRONGER STORMS TOWARD CENTRAL VA...AND THIS AREA IS INCLUDED
IN SPC DAY 3 MARGINAL RISK. MODEL CONSENSUS ATTM IS FOR LOW TO BE
PULLING AWAY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF THE LOW PRESSURE DEPARTING
THE AREA FASTER ON MONDAY...THOUGH PASSING TROUGH AND NORTHEAST
FLOW MAY KEEP A FEW SHOWERS GOING ACROSS THE REGION. THE FLOW MAY
TURN NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO BREAK
AND SOME SUN TO REACH THE GROUND...AND ALLOW TEMPS TO NEAR 70.
GUIDANCE MOSTLY AGREES ON A DRIER TREND MONDAY NIGHT BUT TUESDAY
ONWARD IS STILL QUESTIONABLE WITH THE EC STILL SHOWING A WAVE
MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF...WHILE THE GFS IS MUCH SLOWER
BRINGING A WAVE UP. BOTH MODELS DO SHOW THE WAVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WEDNESDAY BUT ARE SHUNTED EAST OF THE PREVIOUS EC
RUNS...KEEPING US MOSTLY DRY. GFS AND EC BOTH HAVE ANOTHER FRONT
SLIDE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY WITH MUCH COOLER AIR
BEHIND IT. GFS IS FAIRLY DRY WHILE EC GENERATES A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SHOWERS. OVERALL IT WILL BE A COOLER THAN NORMAL WEEK WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY NEAR OR BELOW 70.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH DAYBREAK. MOST GUIDANCE HAS CIGS LIFTING TO MVFR BY THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW HIGH. COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS
EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE WILL
PRECLUDE TAF MENTION FOR NOW. OTHERWISE EXPECT PREDOMINANTLY DZ.

CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD IFR
EXPECTED WITH LOW CIGS...DZ...AND FOG. SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT ON
SATURDAY WITH PERHAPS VFR DURING THE MIDDAY. BROAD AREA OF
RAIN...PERHAPS MODERATE...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. SHOWERS CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THUNDER POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY CHO. TEMPORAL RESOLUTION OF
CIGS/VSBYS BECOMES LESS CERTAIN DURING THIS TIME.

CIGS AND VIS LIKELY TO IMPROVE GRADUALLY MONDAY WITH VFR PROBABLE
BY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. GENERALLY EXPECTING 5-
10 KT WITH OCCASIONAL INCREASES TO 15 KT. LIGHT FOG AND DZ WILL
CONTINUE AT TIMES. NEXT ROUND OF RAIN AND ASSOCIATED LLJ IS A LITTLE
QUICKER NOW AND SCA CONDITIONS MAY BE REACHED AS EARLY AS SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS POSSIBILITY WILL REMAIN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH PERHAPS NOT CONTINUOUSLY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCA CONDITIONS REMAIN
POSSIBLE WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING ON MONDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES HAVE CONTINUED TO DECLINE OVERNIGHT...AND RIGHT
NOW WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY FLOODING WITH THE MORNING CYCLE. WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE WATCHING ANOMALIES AS WITH THE CONTINUED
NORTHEAST FLOW...WATER LEVELS MAY RE-BUILD IN THE BAY AND POTOMAC.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...RCM
AVIATION...ADS/RCM
MARINE...ADS/RCM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RCM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290646
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
246 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS NORTHERN
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY... BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO
THE REGION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR A MOSTLY DRY LATER
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WITH THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CANCELLED THE WATCH AT 9 PM AS THE STORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THAT
REGION. DESPITE MOST OF THE FA WEDGED IN A COOL AIRMASS AT THE
SFC... MERGING BOUNDARIES ALONG WITH STRONG MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SUPPORTS CONTINUING THE CONVECTION FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING.
COOL SFC AIR PREVENTING STRONG WINDS FROM REACHING THE GRND...BUT
NMRS REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL PAST SVRL HRS AS THE STORMS CONTINUE TO
PULSE. AREAS OF FOG BECOMING WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVSRY THROUGH 10 AM FRI OVER THE WATERS GIVEN CRNT CONDITONS.
DON`T SEE VSBYS IMPROVING OVER THE WATER UNTIL AFTER SR. CONVECTION
SLOWLY TAPERS OFF THROUGH THE NIGHT TO SLGHT CHC ALONG THE COAST
AFTER 08Z. SOME DRIZZLE POSSIBLE AS WELL. LOWS IN THE U40S-L50S
EXCEPT M-U50S SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DRIER PERIOD EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, AS FRONT PUSHES A
BIT FARTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA, AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN
ACROSS THE AREA LATER FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY. EXPECT SOME
LINGERING CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/LGT RAIN, BUT WITH DRIER
AIR ALOFT FILTERING IN...CHANCES OF MEASURING ARE LOW. HIGHS
FRIDAY IN THE U50S TO LOW 60S NORTH...TO MID 70S SOUTH.

INCREASING CLOUDINESS BUT CONTINUED MAINLY DRY FRIDAY NIGHT.
SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS...RANGING FROM IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S EASTERN SHORE/NRN NECK TO UPPER 50S/NEAR 60
SE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. UPPER/SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE COAST SAT MORNING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO
THE REGION. LEAD WAVE LIFTS ALONG THE FRONT INTO THE OH VALLEY SAT
AFTERNOON...WITH ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE PIEDMONT AND NRN VA
AS EARLY AS SAT AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC FIELDS SUGGEST THAT PRECIP MAY
ARRIVE FASTER AS THE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW. THUS
HAVE SPED TRENDS UP SLIGHTLY. REGARDLESS...SAT EXPECTED TO BE PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO SPREAD INTO
THE REGION SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OVER
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS IN THE UPPER FLOW
WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT. PERIODS OF SHOWERS
CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY
EXCEPT IN THE SE SUNDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS NOW DROPS THE FRONT OVER
THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
MEANINGFUL/BENEFICIAL RAINFALL COMING ALONG THE FRONT. LIKELY POPS
FOR ALL. LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFFSHORE MON WITH LINGERING MOISTURE
AND LIFT PROVIDING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. THEREAFTER...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE WRN CONUS...RESULTING IN TROUGHING THRU
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ECMWF CONTINUES TO STALL THE FRONT ALONG
THE COAST MON DUE TO WEAKER UPPER LEVEL FORCING COMPARED TO ITS GFS
COUNTERPART. GFS PUSHES THE FRONT OFF THE SHORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. PREFER THE GFS BASED ON THE PATTERN...BUT WILL
NOT COMPLETELY DISCOUNT THE ECMWF. WILL KEEP MENTION OF SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS INLAND AND LOW END CHANCE POPS ALONG THE COAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY TUES AND WEDS AS THE ECMWF LIFTS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S (COOLER ALONG THE COAST). WARMEST DAY BEING MON WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID/POSSIBLY UPPER 70S. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER NC EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
RIDGING SWD INTO THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. STRATUS PERSISTS OVER THE
AREA WITH CIGS AVERAGING 300-600FT. EARLIER SHOWERS/TSTMS HAVE
WEAKENED AND MOVED OFFSHORE...WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS FROM SRN
VA INTO NE NC. IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...WITH VSBY FALLING TO 2-4SM BY 08Z. A SIMILAR
SURFACE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TODAY. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH TIME-HEIGHT CROSS-SECTIONS
INDICATING THAT CIGS LIFT THIS AFTN FOR RIC/PHF/ORF/ECG. SBY IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN IFR THROUGH THE DAY. STRATUS IS ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASING CHC FOR -RA AND DEGRADED
FLIGHT CONDITIONS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND ACROSS THE NRN
MID- ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. RA IS LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH A MINIMAL CHC OF THUNDER SUNDAY AFTN. A COLD FRONT
DROPS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...AND SETTLES S OF THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS THIS AFTN
WITH LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE SLIDES
OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WHILE THE LINGERING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DROPS FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS. NE LLVL WIND IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-20KT N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND...AND
NWPS/WNAWAVE BOTH AGREE W/SEAS INCREASING TO 4-6FT SEAS LATER
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AN SCA CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY FOR
THE BUILDING SEAS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SLIDES THE LOW WELL
OFFSHORE BEFORE THE HIGH BUILDS IN. HENCE...FORECAST WIND SPEEDS
ARE NOT AS STRONG AND FORECAST SEAS ARE CORRESPONDINGLY LOWER...SO
SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY ATTM.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE NE COAST SATURDAY AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ONSHORE FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT
PERSISTS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS GENERALLY 3 TO 4 FT. LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE NRN MID ATLANTIC REGION SAT NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS OVER THE WATERS. FLOW BECOMES SWLY SUN AOB 15 KT. COLD
FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION SUN NIGHT...STALLING ALONG THE COAST
MONDAY. LACK OF LOW LEVEL CAA AND GRADIENT WINDS EXPECTED TO KEEP
CONDITIONS SUB-SCA BEHIND THE FRONT. NW WINDS AROUND 15 KT BUILD
SEAS TO 4 FT MON NIGHT...POSSIBLY UP TO 5 FT NEAR 20 NM OUT. THE
FRONT STALLS ALONG THE COAST/JUST OFFSHORE THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630>632-
     634>638-650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...BMD/MAM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...BMD/MAM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 290553
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
153 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING THROUGH OUR AREA FRIDAY
MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE FRONT FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
UP ALONG THE FRONT LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY RESULTING IN ADDED
SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 930 PM EDT THURSDAY...

GIVEN DECREASING TRENDS IN CONVECTION OVER THE WEST WENT AHEAD
AND DROPPED THE REMAINDER OF THE GOING SEVERE WATCH. HOWEVER GIVEN
LINGERING INSTABILITY...CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT A HEAVIER SHOWER OR
STORM ACROSS THE NEW RIVER/ROA VALLEY SECTIONS IN THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO WHERE HAVE SEEN NO RAIN TODAY. OTRW WILL STILL HAVE TO WAIT
FOR THE RESIDUAL FRONT/WAVE TO THE WEST TO CLEAR THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT BEFORE REMOVING ALL POPS. STILL APPEARS PER THE LATEST
HRRR AND SUBSEQUENT SHORT TERM MODELS THAT WILL SEE MOST COVERAGE
FADE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WHILE THE WEDGE LINGERS IN THE EAST. THEREFORE WILL
TAPER POPS FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH JUST
ABOUT ALL SHOWERS GONE OUT EAST BEFORE DAYBREAK. MAY NUDGE LOW
TEMPS DOWN A BIT WITHIN THE WEDGE OTRW MOSTLY 50S TO AROUND 60
OVERNIGHT.


PREVIOUS UPDATE AS OF 845 PM EDT THURSDAY...

QUICK UPDATE TO DROP THE WATCH ACROSS THE NW NC COUNTIES GIVEN
DEEPER CONVECTION ACTUALLY FARTHER NORTH AND UPSTREAM IN WEST VA
THAT WILL LIKELY ONLY AFFECT WESTERN VA. ALSO MOST AREAS OVER NW
NC HAVE BEEN WORKED OVER SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH ADDED CONVECTION
DOWN THAT WAY. LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCH IN PLACE GIVEN
CONVECTION OVERTOP THE WEDGE UP NORTH AND LINGERING INSTABILITY
SOUTHERN SECTIONS. OTRW FEW ADDED CHANGES FOR NOW.


PREVIOUS AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...

FORECAST ISSUE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. WEDGE HAS HELD ALL DAY FROM CHARLOTTE COUNTY NORTHWEST TO
BEDFORD/AMHERST. VIS SAT LOOP SHOWS MINOR EROSION OF THE WEDGE AND
WITH 1018 MB HIGH OVER SRN PA WILL SEE LITTLE NE MOVEMENT OF THE
EROSION. CONVECTION OVER THE ALLEGHANYS WILL WORK EWD INTO THE WEDGE
BUT ONLY ELEVATED CONVECTION EXPECTED...SO SVR THREAT ALMOST NIL FOR
LYH TODAY.

FURTHER SOUTHWEST SUNSHINE MOST OF THE DAY HAS ALLOWED MUCAPES TO
EXCEED 2000 J/KG FROM THE NC PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS...NORTHWEST TO
THE SRN BLUE RIDGE OF VA. THIS SEEMS TO BE THE AREA TO WATCH
CONCERNING SVR THREAT. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS 40-45KTS IN THIS AREA.
UPPER FLOW IS MAINLY WEST-EAST...AND FAIRLY QUICK. THIS COULD BE A
LIMITING FACTOR ON SOME VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY IN
CLUSTERS...AS SHEAR MAY TEAR INTO THE TCU. ANY CELLS THAT CAN
OVERCOME THIS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GETTING SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL.

LOW PRESSURE SITUATED FROM INDIANA TO THE NC MTNS WILL BE MOVING
SLOWLY EAST TO THE PIEDMONT BY MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE
CONVERGENCE ZONE AS SUCH IN OUR CWA FOR A FEW HOURS...SO LOOKING AT
HIGH CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY IN THE BLUE RIDGE AND POINTS EAST
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...BETTER SUPPORT STARTS TO LIFT
NORTHEAST DURING THIS TIME...AS DRY SLOT WORKS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

SHOULD SEE THINGS CLEAR AND DRY OUT LATE TONIGHT...EXCEPT EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE SOME LINGERING LOW LVL MOISTURE REMAINS.

SHOULD SEE SOME GOOD SUBSIDENCE BEHIND SYSTEM FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES BY AFTERNOON...AFTER SOME MORNING LOW CLOUDS EAST. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S SOUTHSIDE VA INTO NC PIEDMONT...TO MID
TO UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE...WITH SOME 60S POSSIBLE INTO THE BLUE RIDGE
AND EAST TO BUCKINGHAM IF IT DOES NOT CLEAR OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 324 PM EDT THURSDAY...

THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE END OF THE MONTH INTO
EARLY MAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL BUILD SOUTH DOWN
INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER WEATHER WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
TO THE MID 50S IN THE PIEDMONT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH
ON SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL VARY FROM AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE
NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTH. ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE LOWER 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRODUCING ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL
WARM INTO THE MID 60S IN THE WEST TO THE MID 70S IN THE EAST. CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WILL LINGER SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE
EAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING SOME DRIER AIR IN THE MIDDLE
BETWEEN THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE
IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 60
DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 324 PM EDT THURSDAY...

LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY MORNING WILL TRAVEL EAST MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF A SHORTWAVE...WARM
MOIST AIR AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND LOW
CLOUDS IN THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. THEN...A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH WILL ERODE THE WEDGE AND KICK THE RAIN EAST AND OFF SHORE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE EROSION OF THE WEDGE IS ALWAYS A FORECAST
CHALLENGE AND MAY BE SLOWER THAN EXPECTED ON MODELS. IF WEDGES
ERODES AS FORECASTED HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE WARMER THAN SUNDAY WITH
READINGS FROM NEAR 60 DEGREES IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID
AND UPPER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. DRIER AIR PUSHES IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID 40S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE PIEDMONT. A WAVY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALL TO OUR SOUTH ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. LEANED TOWARDS GFS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND DRIER AIR OVER THE
WET ECMWF. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID 40S
IN THE WEST TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE EAST. HARD TO JUDGE HOW FAR
NORTH MOISTURE ADVECTED WITH A DISTURBANCE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES MIDWEEK INTO THURSDAY. FOLLOWED THE SUPERBLEND
WITH COOLING TREND AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM EDT FRIDAY...

SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED IFR CLOUDS EXPANDING WEST AND SOUTH OVER
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN  NORTH CAROLINA. AT THE 06Z START
OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD KBCB WAS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW
CLOUD SHIELD. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CONDITIONS AT KROA/KLYH/KDAN
WILL REMAIN IFR UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE. EXPECT CLOUDS TO ERODE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN THE MORNING...HOWEVER...KLYH MAY NOT
IMPROVE TO VFR UNTIL AROUND 18Z/2PM.

FOG WITH MVFR TO LIFR VISIBILITIES WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE THE SKY WAS
MOSTLY CLEAR AND WHERE THERE WAS RAIN ON THURSDAY. THIS FOG WILL
ALSO DISSIPATE DURING THE MORNING.

WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR AFTER 00Z/8PM.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH MVFR INCLUDING LOCALLY IFR
CONDITIONS RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE RESIDUAL STALLED FRONT
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...AND SUB VFR CONDITIONS.

A WEAK COLD SHOULD CROSS THE REGION MONDAY BRINGING IMPROVING
FLYING CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON AND VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...AMS/JH




    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities