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000
FXUS61 KRNK 282348
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
748 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE EAST
COAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LIKEWISE...COOL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD...AND ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...MODERATING TEMPERATURES...AND POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM EDT MONDAY...

NW FLOW IN THE LOW LVLS ALONG WITH SHORTWAVE ALOFT IN THE MEAN
TROUGH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS NOTED
ACROSS US THIS EARLY EVENING. ACTING MORE LIKE FALL OUT THERE WITH
STRATOCU IN THE MTNS SPILLING OVER INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT. ISOLATED SHRA OVER THE MTNS PER SUPPORT ALOFT. GOING
INTO THIS EVENING THINK THE COVERAGE OF SHRA DISSIPATED WITH LOSS
OF HEATING...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...JUST UPDATED
SOME WIND AND SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE GUSTY CONDITIONS IN THE
MTNS. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE A BIT AFTER DUSK.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR...WITH MOST AREAS FORECAST WITHIN FIVE DEGREES OF
RECORDS. THE FORECAST LOW OF 55 AT BLUEFIELD WOULD TIE THE
RECORD. SPECIFIC RECORDS ARE IN THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THIS
DISCUSSION.

ON TUESDAY...OUR COOL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH THE AXIS OF THE
UPPER TROUGH STILL OVER OUR REGION...AND THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. EMBEDDED WITH THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH PATTERN...MODEL GUIDANCE OFFER A SOLUTION WITH A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE MAIN FLOW CROSSING MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE AREA...IN THE
PATH OF THE DISTURBANCE AND WITHIN A ZONE OF WEAK UPSLOPE 850 MB
FLOW. HIGH ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE AROUND FIVE DEGREES
COOLER THAN THOSE REALIZED TODAY. LOW TO MID 70S ARE FORECAST ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS WITH UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. A VERY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THURSDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GRADUALLY INCREASE BACK
UP INTO THE 1.0 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE BY LATE THURSDAY.

BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR WEDNESDAY SHOW ENOUGH MIXING TO BRING
DEW POINTS DOWN INTO THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WILL STAY CLOSE TO COOLER GUIDANCE FOR LOWS ON BOTH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RECORD LOWS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...

UPPER 500 MB TROF OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES AMPLIFIES ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. MODELS SIMILAR IN SHOWING HEIGHT FALLS ON THE SOUTHERN END
OF THE TROF AND WHAT MAY EVENTUALLY BE A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OR SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES MONDAY.

MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY BUT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF ANY ORGANIZED LIFT TO TRIGGER ANY PRECIPITATION ASIDE
FROM DAILY THREAT OF AIRMASS TYPE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS THERE WILL BE MINIMAL CHANGES IN HIGH
AND LOW TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY EXTREMES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT MONDAY...

INCLINED TO KEEP THE NW FLOW SC IN THE WEST THROUGH MOST OF THE
EVENING...WITH MODELS SHOWING DOWNWARD TREND IN CIGS AT LWB/BLF
AND POSSIBLY BCB OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS. IN ADDITION FOG
WILL BE AN ISSUE...IF ANY CLEARING TAKES PLACE DESPITE THE DRY
AIRMASS...DUE TO WARM WATERS/COOLER AIR...AT LWB/BCB AND PERHAPS
BLF. BLF WILL BE MORE DUE TO LOWER CLOUDS IN THE MTNS THAN
RADIATION FOG AS WINDS STAY UP THERE.

FURTHER EAST VFR EXPECTED.

ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE TO VFR TUESDAY
MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

PERSISTENT TROUGH PATTERN IN THE EAST WILL GRADUALLY RETROGRADE
WEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY SAVE FOR SOME LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
PATCHY MVFR FOG IN THE MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEYS. AFTER
THURSDAY...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS FARTHER WEST...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A RETURN OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND A GREATER ABUNDANCE OF
SHOWERS...AND POTENTIALLY STORMS...IN THE FORECAST HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND. THIS ALSO WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED CHANCES OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WITHIN THE AREA OF THE SHOWERS...AND THEN AGAIN
OVERNIGHT IN THE FORM OF LIGHT FOG OR STRATUS AS BOUNDARY MOISTURE
GETS TRAPPED UNDER THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JULY 29TH RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......52...1925
BLUEFIELD....55...2013
DANVILLE.....58...1968
LEWISBURG....46...2013
LYNCHBURG....53...1920
BLACKSBURG...50...1983


JULY 30TH RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......54...1997
BLUEFIELD....50...1981
DANVILLE.....60...1972/81/83/2013
LEWISBURG....46...2013
LYNCHBURG....52...1997
BLACKSBURG...50...1973/81


JULY 31ST RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......49...1914
BLUEFIELD....49...1997
DANVILLE.....55...1966
LEWISBURG....48...1997
LYNCHBURG....49...1997
BLACKSBURG...44...1997

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO AT WYTHEVILLE VA...WZ2500...BROADCASTING
ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.450 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR...DUE TO PHONE LINE
ISSUES. PHONE COMPANY IS WORKING ON IT. NO ESTIMATED TIME FOR
RETURN TO SERVICE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS/WP
CLIMATE...DS/PH
EQUIPMENT...DS



000
FXUS61 KRNK 282348
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
748 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE EAST
COAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LIKEWISE...COOL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD...AND ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...MODERATING TEMPERATURES...AND POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM EDT MONDAY...

NW FLOW IN THE LOW LVLS ALONG WITH SHORTWAVE ALOFT IN THE MEAN
TROUGH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS NOTED
ACROSS US THIS EARLY EVENING. ACTING MORE LIKE FALL OUT THERE WITH
STRATOCU IN THE MTNS SPILLING OVER INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT. ISOLATED SHRA OVER THE MTNS PER SUPPORT ALOFT. GOING
INTO THIS EVENING THINK THE COVERAGE OF SHRA DISSIPATED WITH LOSS
OF HEATING...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...JUST UPDATED
SOME WIND AND SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE GUSTY CONDITIONS IN THE
MTNS. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE A BIT AFTER DUSK.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR...WITH MOST AREAS FORECAST WITHIN FIVE DEGREES OF
RECORDS. THE FORECAST LOW OF 55 AT BLUEFIELD WOULD TIE THE
RECORD. SPECIFIC RECORDS ARE IN THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THIS
DISCUSSION.

ON TUESDAY...OUR COOL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH THE AXIS OF THE
UPPER TROUGH STILL OVER OUR REGION...AND THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. EMBEDDED WITH THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH PATTERN...MODEL GUIDANCE OFFER A SOLUTION WITH A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE MAIN FLOW CROSSING MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE AREA...IN THE
PATH OF THE DISTURBANCE AND WITHIN A ZONE OF WEAK UPSLOPE 850 MB
FLOW. HIGH ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE AROUND FIVE DEGREES
COOLER THAN THOSE REALIZED TODAY. LOW TO MID 70S ARE FORECAST ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS WITH UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. A VERY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THURSDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GRADUALLY INCREASE BACK
UP INTO THE 1.0 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE BY LATE THURSDAY.

BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR WEDNESDAY SHOW ENOUGH MIXING TO BRING
DEW POINTS DOWN INTO THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WILL STAY CLOSE TO COOLER GUIDANCE FOR LOWS ON BOTH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RECORD LOWS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...

UPPER 500 MB TROF OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES AMPLIFIES ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. MODELS SIMILAR IN SHOWING HEIGHT FALLS ON THE SOUTHERN END
OF THE TROF AND WHAT MAY EVENTUALLY BE A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OR SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES MONDAY.

MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY BUT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF ANY ORGANIZED LIFT TO TRIGGER ANY PRECIPITATION ASIDE
FROM DAILY THREAT OF AIRMASS TYPE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS THERE WILL BE MINIMAL CHANGES IN HIGH
AND LOW TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY EXTREMES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT MONDAY...

INCLINED TO KEEP THE NW FLOW SC IN THE WEST THROUGH MOST OF THE
EVENING...WITH MODELS SHOWING DOWNWARD TREND IN CIGS AT LWB/BLF
AND POSSIBLY BCB OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS. IN ADDITION FOG
WILL BE AN ISSUE...IF ANY CLEARING TAKES PLACE DESPITE THE DRY
AIRMASS...DUE TO WARM WATERS/COOLER AIR...AT LWB/BCB AND PERHAPS
BLF. BLF WILL BE MORE DUE TO LOWER CLOUDS IN THE MTNS THAN
RADIATION FOG AS WINDS STAY UP THERE.

FURTHER EAST VFR EXPECTED.

ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE TO VFR TUESDAY
MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

PERSISTENT TROUGH PATTERN IN THE EAST WILL GRADUALLY RETROGRADE
WEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY SAVE FOR SOME LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
PATCHY MVFR FOG IN THE MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEYS. AFTER
THURSDAY...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS FARTHER WEST...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A RETURN OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND A GREATER ABUNDANCE OF
SHOWERS...AND POTENTIALLY STORMS...IN THE FORECAST HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND. THIS ALSO WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED CHANCES OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WITHIN THE AREA OF THE SHOWERS...AND THEN AGAIN
OVERNIGHT IN THE FORM OF LIGHT FOG OR STRATUS AS BOUNDARY MOISTURE
GETS TRAPPED UNDER THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JULY 29TH RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......52...1925
BLUEFIELD....55...2013
DANVILLE.....58...1968
LEWISBURG....46...2013
LYNCHBURG....53...1920
BLACKSBURG...50...1983


JULY 30TH RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......54...1997
BLUEFIELD....50...1981
DANVILLE.....60...1972/81/83/2013
LEWISBURG....46...2013
LYNCHBURG....52...1997
BLACKSBURG...50...1973/81


JULY 31ST RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......49...1914
BLUEFIELD....49...1997
DANVILLE.....55...1966
LEWISBURG....48...1997
LYNCHBURG....49...1997
BLACKSBURG...44...1997

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO AT WYTHEVILLE VA...WZ2500...BROADCASTING
ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.450 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR...DUE TO PHONE LINE
ISSUES. PHONE COMPANY IS WORKING ON IT. NO ESTIMATED TIME FOR
RETURN TO SERVICE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS/WP
CLIMATE...DS/PH
EQUIPMENT...DS



000
FXUS61 KRNK 282348
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
748 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE EAST
COAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LIKEWISE...COOL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD...AND ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...MODERATING TEMPERATURES...AND POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM EDT MONDAY...

NW FLOW IN THE LOW LVLS ALONG WITH SHORTWAVE ALOFT IN THE MEAN
TROUGH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS NOTED
ACROSS US THIS EARLY EVENING. ACTING MORE LIKE FALL OUT THERE WITH
STRATOCU IN THE MTNS SPILLING OVER INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT. ISOLATED SHRA OVER THE MTNS PER SUPPORT ALOFT. GOING
INTO THIS EVENING THINK THE COVERAGE OF SHRA DISSIPATED WITH LOSS
OF HEATING...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...JUST UPDATED
SOME WIND AND SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE GUSTY CONDITIONS IN THE
MTNS. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE A BIT AFTER DUSK.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR...WITH MOST AREAS FORECAST WITHIN FIVE DEGREES OF
RECORDS. THE FORECAST LOW OF 55 AT BLUEFIELD WOULD TIE THE
RECORD. SPECIFIC RECORDS ARE IN THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THIS
DISCUSSION.

ON TUESDAY...OUR COOL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH THE AXIS OF THE
UPPER TROUGH STILL OVER OUR REGION...AND THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. EMBEDDED WITH THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH PATTERN...MODEL GUIDANCE OFFER A SOLUTION WITH A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE MAIN FLOW CROSSING MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE AREA...IN THE
PATH OF THE DISTURBANCE AND WITHIN A ZONE OF WEAK UPSLOPE 850 MB
FLOW. HIGH ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE AROUND FIVE DEGREES
COOLER THAN THOSE REALIZED TODAY. LOW TO MID 70S ARE FORECAST ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS WITH UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. A VERY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THURSDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GRADUALLY INCREASE BACK
UP INTO THE 1.0 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE BY LATE THURSDAY.

BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR WEDNESDAY SHOW ENOUGH MIXING TO BRING
DEW POINTS DOWN INTO THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WILL STAY CLOSE TO COOLER GUIDANCE FOR LOWS ON BOTH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RECORD LOWS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...

UPPER 500 MB TROF OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES AMPLIFIES ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. MODELS SIMILAR IN SHOWING HEIGHT FALLS ON THE SOUTHERN END
OF THE TROF AND WHAT MAY EVENTUALLY BE A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OR SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES MONDAY.

MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY BUT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF ANY ORGANIZED LIFT TO TRIGGER ANY PRECIPITATION ASIDE
FROM DAILY THREAT OF AIRMASS TYPE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS THERE WILL BE MINIMAL CHANGES IN HIGH
AND LOW TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY EXTREMES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT MONDAY...

INCLINED TO KEEP THE NW FLOW SC IN THE WEST THROUGH MOST OF THE
EVENING...WITH MODELS SHOWING DOWNWARD TREND IN CIGS AT LWB/BLF
AND POSSIBLY BCB OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS. IN ADDITION FOG
WILL BE AN ISSUE...IF ANY CLEARING TAKES PLACE DESPITE THE DRY
AIRMASS...DUE TO WARM WATERS/COOLER AIR...AT LWB/BCB AND PERHAPS
BLF. BLF WILL BE MORE DUE TO LOWER CLOUDS IN THE MTNS THAN
RADIATION FOG AS WINDS STAY UP THERE.

FURTHER EAST VFR EXPECTED.

ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE TO VFR TUESDAY
MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

PERSISTENT TROUGH PATTERN IN THE EAST WILL GRADUALLY RETROGRADE
WEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY SAVE FOR SOME LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
PATCHY MVFR FOG IN THE MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEYS. AFTER
THURSDAY...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS FARTHER WEST...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A RETURN OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND A GREATER ABUNDANCE OF
SHOWERS...AND POTENTIALLY STORMS...IN THE FORECAST HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND. THIS ALSO WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED CHANCES OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WITHIN THE AREA OF THE SHOWERS...AND THEN AGAIN
OVERNIGHT IN THE FORM OF LIGHT FOG OR STRATUS AS BOUNDARY MOISTURE
GETS TRAPPED UNDER THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JULY 29TH RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......52...1925
BLUEFIELD....55...2013
DANVILLE.....58...1968
LEWISBURG....46...2013
LYNCHBURG....53...1920
BLACKSBURG...50...1983


JULY 30TH RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......54...1997
BLUEFIELD....50...1981
DANVILLE.....60...1972/81/83/2013
LEWISBURG....46...2013
LYNCHBURG....52...1997
BLACKSBURG...50...1973/81


JULY 31ST RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......49...1914
BLUEFIELD....49...1997
DANVILLE.....55...1966
LEWISBURG....48...1997
LYNCHBURG....49...1997
BLACKSBURG...44...1997

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO AT WYTHEVILLE VA...WZ2500...BROADCASTING
ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.450 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR...DUE TO PHONE LINE
ISSUES. PHONE COMPANY IS WORKING ON IT. NO ESTIMATED TIME FOR
RETURN TO SERVICE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS/WP
CLIMATE...DS/PH
EQUIPMENT...DS



000
FXUS61 KRNK 282348
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
748 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE EAST
COAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LIKEWISE...COOL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD...AND ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...MODERATING TEMPERATURES...AND POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM EDT MONDAY...

NW FLOW IN THE LOW LVLS ALONG WITH SHORTWAVE ALOFT IN THE MEAN
TROUGH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS NOTED
ACROSS US THIS EARLY EVENING. ACTING MORE LIKE FALL OUT THERE WITH
STRATOCU IN THE MTNS SPILLING OVER INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT. ISOLATED SHRA OVER THE MTNS PER SUPPORT ALOFT. GOING
INTO THIS EVENING THINK THE COVERAGE OF SHRA DISSIPATED WITH LOSS
OF HEATING...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...JUST UPDATED
SOME WIND AND SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE GUSTY CONDITIONS IN THE
MTNS. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE A BIT AFTER DUSK.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR...WITH MOST AREAS FORECAST WITHIN FIVE DEGREES OF
RECORDS. THE FORECAST LOW OF 55 AT BLUEFIELD WOULD TIE THE
RECORD. SPECIFIC RECORDS ARE IN THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THIS
DISCUSSION.

ON TUESDAY...OUR COOL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH THE AXIS OF THE
UPPER TROUGH STILL OVER OUR REGION...AND THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. EMBEDDED WITH THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH PATTERN...MODEL GUIDANCE OFFER A SOLUTION WITH A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE MAIN FLOW CROSSING MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE AREA...IN THE
PATH OF THE DISTURBANCE AND WITHIN A ZONE OF WEAK UPSLOPE 850 MB
FLOW. HIGH ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE AROUND FIVE DEGREES
COOLER THAN THOSE REALIZED TODAY. LOW TO MID 70S ARE FORECAST ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS WITH UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. A VERY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THURSDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GRADUALLY INCREASE BACK
UP INTO THE 1.0 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE BY LATE THURSDAY.

BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR WEDNESDAY SHOW ENOUGH MIXING TO BRING
DEW POINTS DOWN INTO THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WILL STAY CLOSE TO COOLER GUIDANCE FOR LOWS ON BOTH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RECORD LOWS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...

UPPER 500 MB TROF OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES AMPLIFIES ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. MODELS SIMILAR IN SHOWING HEIGHT FALLS ON THE SOUTHERN END
OF THE TROF AND WHAT MAY EVENTUALLY BE A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OR SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES MONDAY.

MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY BUT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF ANY ORGANIZED LIFT TO TRIGGER ANY PRECIPITATION ASIDE
FROM DAILY THREAT OF AIRMASS TYPE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS THERE WILL BE MINIMAL CHANGES IN HIGH
AND LOW TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY EXTREMES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT MONDAY...

INCLINED TO KEEP THE NW FLOW SC IN THE WEST THROUGH MOST OF THE
EVENING...WITH MODELS SHOWING DOWNWARD TREND IN CIGS AT LWB/BLF
AND POSSIBLY BCB OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS. IN ADDITION FOG
WILL BE AN ISSUE...IF ANY CLEARING TAKES PLACE DESPITE THE DRY
AIRMASS...DUE TO WARM WATERS/COOLER AIR...AT LWB/BCB AND PERHAPS
BLF. BLF WILL BE MORE DUE TO LOWER CLOUDS IN THE MTNS THAN
RADIATION FOG AS WINDS STAY UP THERE.

FURTHER EAST VFR EXPECTED.

ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE TO VFR TUESDAY
MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

PERSISTENT TROUGH PATTERN IN THE EAST WILL GRADUALLY RETROGRADE
WEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY SAVE FOR SOME LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
PATCHY MVFR FOG IN THE MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEYS. AFTER
THURSDAY...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS FARTHER WEST...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A RETURN OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND A GREATER ABUNDANCE OF
SHOWERS...AND POTENTIALLY STORMS...IN THE FORECAST HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND. THIS ALSO WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED CHANCES OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WITHIN THE AREA OF THE SHOWERS...AND THEN AGAIN
OVERNIGHT IN THE FORM OF LIGHT FOG OR STRATUS AS BOUNDARY MOISTURE
GETS TRAPPED UNDER THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JULY 29TH RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......52...1925
BLUEFIELD....55...2013
DANVILLE.....58...1968
LEWISBURG....46...2013
LYNCHBURG....53...1920
BLACKSBURG...50...1983


JULY 30TH RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......54...1997
BLUEFIELD....50...1981
DANVILLE.....60...1972/81/83/2013
LEWISBURG....46...2013
LYNCHBURG....52...1997
BLACKSBURG...50...1973/81


JULY 31ST RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......49...1914
BLUEFIELD....49...1997
DANVILLE.....55...1966
LEWISBURG....48...1997
LYNCHBURG....49...1997
BLACKSBURG...44...1997

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO AT WYTHEVILLE VA...WZ2500...BROADCASTING
ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.450 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR...DUE TO PHONE LINE
ISSUES. PHONE COMPANY IS WORKING ON IT. NO ESTIMATED TIME FOR
RETURN TO SERVICE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS/WP
CLIMATE...DS/PH
EQUIPMENT...DS


  [top]

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 282012
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
412 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE FOR THURSDAY.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE CST TNGT INTO TUE. BREEZY WEST WINDS
USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTN...WILL CALM DOWN
AND TURN TO THE NW THEN N TNGT INTO TUE MORNG. WILL MAINTAIN JUST
A SLGT CHC FOR A SHOWER OR TSTM INTO EARLY THIS EVENG...MAINLY OVR
NE NC...AS THE FRONT MAY INTERACT WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND MORE COMFORTABLE TNGT
WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FM THE UPR 50S EXTRM NW...TO THE UPR 60S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AND RATHER PLEASANT TUE AND WED (ESPLY TUE)...AS SFC HI PRES
BLDS INTO AND OVR THE AREA...DESPITE LONGWAVE TROF DIGGING
(SITTING) OVR THE MID ATLC REGION. AN ISLTD SHOWER OR TSTM COULD
OCCUR OVR NE NC TUE AFTN...AS THE BASE OF THE UPR LEVEL TROF SWINGS
THRU THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A WEAK SFC LO LINGERING JUST
OFF THE NC CST. UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...MAX TEMPS
WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S. GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR TUE
NGT WITH LOWS RANGING FM THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S MOST PLACES.
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ON WED WITH HIGHS IN THE LWR TO MID 80S.
MOSTLY CLEAR WED NGT WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FM THE UPR 50S TO MID
60S. HI PRES WILL BE OFF THE CST FOR THU...WITH E THRU S FLO ACRS
THE AREA. SLGT INCREASE IN HUMIDITY. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH
MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S (MAYBE SOME UPR 80S).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD STAYS
DRY THU NGT/FRIDAY...WITH SOME SCT (MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN) SHRAS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE MS VLY AND A COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL LOCATE
ALONG/JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL ALSO
BRING AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY THROUGH THIS SAME WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT
WEEK TIME FRAME. FOR TEMPS, LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW
CLIMO NORMAL...GENERALLY RIDING INTO THE L-M 80S. EARLY MORNING LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S SAT MORNING, INCREMENTALLY INCREASING TO U60S
TO AROUND 70 BY EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 17Z...DEEP WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
SHIFTING THE WINDS TO NW/N BY EVENING. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD ADVECTION ALOFT WAS RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STRATOCU/MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THIS SHOULD LARGELY CLEAR THIS
EVENING AND REDEVELOP...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST...ON TUESDAY.
WINDS BECOME N/NE ON TUESDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR IS
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG COULD DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE
LATE TIN THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT W-SW FLOW 10-15 KT (15-20 KT IN THE LOWER CHES
BAY) OUT AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT WHICH IS PRESENTLY DROPPING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS GENERALLY RUNNING 2-3 FT
THIS AFTN, HIGHEST OVER NORTHERN WATERS. THE COLD FRONT WILL THE
WATERS EARLY TONIGHT, WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE NNW AFTER 00Z
AS MODEST CAA SURGE RIDES DOWN THE BAY. WINDS COULD GUST TO SCA FOR
ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS THIS AFTN, BUT SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA BRIEFLY
LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY THIS EVENING. DESPITE THIS LULL, CONTINUED
SCA OVER THE BAY AND LOWER JAMES UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH
THE IDEA OF WINDS SLOWLY SUBSIDING TUESDAY MORNING. WILL HANDLE
WORDING OF RAMP UP OF WINDS IN THE MWW/CWF.

WINDS BECOME ONSHORE AND DIMINISH AOB 10KT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH MIDWEEK. STAYED CLOSE TO NWPS, WITH ONSHORE
FLOW KEEPING SEAS ELEVATED AROUND 2 TO 4 FT. COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EAST BY THE WEEKEND, WITH WINDS VEERING
AROUND TO THE S-SW LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING
AGAIN OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAM






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 282012
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
412 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE FOR THURSDAY.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE CST TNGT INTO TUE. BREEZY WEST WINDS
USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTN...WILL CALM DOWN
AND TURN TO THE NW THEN N TNGT INTO TUE MORNG. WILL MAINTAIN JUST
A SLGT CHC FOR A SHOWER OR TSTM INTO EARLY THIS EVENG...MAINLY OVR
NE NC...AS THE FRONT MAY INTERACT WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND MORE COMFORTABLE TNGT
WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FM THE UPR 50S EXTRM NW...TO THE UPR 60S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AND RATHER PLEASANT TUE AND WED (ESPLY TUE)...AS SFC HI PRES
BLDS INTO AND OVR THE AREA...DESPITE LONGWAVE TROF DIGGING
(SITTING) OVR THE MID ATLC REGION. AN ISLTD SHOWER OR TSTM COULD
OCCUR OVR NE NC TUE AFTN...AS THE BASE OF THE UPR LEVEL TROF SWINGS
THRU THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A WEAK SFC LO LINGERING JUST
OFF THE NC CST. UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...MAX TEMPS
WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S. GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR TUE
NGT WITH LOWS RANGING FM THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S MOST PLACES.
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ON WED WITH HIGHS IN THE LWR TO MID 80S.
MOSTLY CLEAR WED NGT WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FM THE UPR 50S TO MID
60S. HI PRES WILL BE OFF THE CST FOR THU...WITH E THRU S FLO ACRS
THE AREA. SLGT INCREASE IN HUMIDITY. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH
MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S (MAYBE SOME UPR 80S).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD STAYS
DRY THU NGT/FRIDAY...WITH SOME SCT (MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN) SHRAS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE MS VLY AND A COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL LOCATE
ALONG/JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL ALSO
BRING AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY THROUGH THIS SAME WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT
WEEK TIME FRAME. FOR TEMPS, LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW
CLIMO NORMAL...GENERALLY RIDING INTO THE L-M 80S. EARLY MORNING LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S SAT MORNING, INCREMENTALLY INCREASING TO U60S
TO AROUND 70 BY EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 17Z...DEEP WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
SHIFTING THE WINDS TO NW/N BY EVENING. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD ADVECTION ALOFT WAS RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STRATOCU/MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THIS SHOULD LARGELY CLEAR THIS
EVENING AND REDEVELOP...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST...ON TUESDAY.
WINDS BECOME N/NE ON TUESDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR IS
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG COULD DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE
LATE TIN THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT W-SW FLOW 10-15 KT (15-20 KT IN THE LOWER CHES
BAY) OUT AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT WHICH IS PRESENTLY DROPPING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS GENERALLY RUNNING 2-3 FT
THIS AFTN, HIGHEST OVER NORTHERN WATERS. THE COLD FRONT WILL THE
WATERS EARLY TONIGHT, WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE NNW AFTER 00Z
AS MODEST CAA SURGE RIDES DOWN THE BAY. WINDS COULD GUST TO SCA FOR
ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS THIS AFTN, BUT SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA BRIEFLY
LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY THIS EVENING. DESPITE THIS LULL, CONTINUED
SCA OVER THE BAY AND LOWER JAMES UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH
THE IDEA OF WINDS SLOWLY SUBSIDING TUESDAY MORNING. WILL HANDLE
WORDING OF RAMP UP OF WINDS IN THE MWW/CWF.

WINDS BECOME ONSHORE AND DIMINISH AOB 10KT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH MIDWEEK. STAYED CLOSE TO NWPS, WITH ONSHORE
FLOW KEEPING SEAS ELEVATED AROUND 2 TO 4 FT. COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EAST BY THE WEEKEND, WITH WINDS VEERING
AROUND TO THE S-SW LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING
AGAIN OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAM






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 282012
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
412 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE FOR THURSDAY.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE CST TNGT INTO TUE. BREEZY WEST WINDS
USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTN...WILL CALM DOWN
AND TURN TO THE NW THEN N TNGT INTO TUE MORNG. WILL MAINTAIN JUST
A SLGT CHC FOR A SHOWER OR TSTM INTO EARLY THIS EVENG...MAINLY OVR
NE NC...AS THE FRONT MAY INTERACT WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND MORE COMFORTABLE TNGT
WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FM THE UPR 50S EXTRM NW...TO THE UPR 60S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AND RATHER PLEASANT TUE AND WED (ESPLY TUE)...AS SFC HI PRES
BLDS INTO AND OVR THE AREA...DESPITE LONGWAVE TROF DIGGING
(SITTING) OVR THE MID ATLC REGION. AN ISLTD SHOWER OR TSTM COULD
OCCUR OVR NE NC TUE AFTN...AS THE BASE OF THE UPR LEVEL TROF SWINGS
THRU THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A WEAK SFC LO LINGERING JUST
OFF THE NC CST. UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...MAX TEMPS
WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S. GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR TUE
NGT WITH LOWS RANGING FM THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S MOST PLACES.
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ON WED WITH HIGHS IN THE LWR TO MID 80S.
MOSTLY CLEAR WED NGT WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FM THE UPR 50S TO MID
60S. HI PRES WILL BE OFF THE CST FOR THU...WITH E THRU S FLO ACRS
THE AREA. SLGT INCREASE IN HUMIDITY. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH
MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S (MAYBE SOME UPR 80S).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD STAYS
DRY THU NGT/FRIDAY...WITH SOME SCT (MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN) SHRAS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE MS VLY AND A COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL LOCATE
ALONG/JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL ALSO
BRING AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY THROUGH THIS SAME WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT
WEEK TIME FRAME. FOR TEMPS, LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW
CLIMO NORMAL...GENERALLY RIDING INTO THE L-M 80S. EARLY MORNING LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S SAT MORNING, INCREMENTALLY INCREASING TO U60S
TO AROUND 70 BY EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 17Z...DEEP WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
SHIFTING THE WINDS TO NW/N BY EVENING. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD ADVECTION ALOFT WAS RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STRATOCU/MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THIS SHOULD LARGELY CLEAR THIS
EVENING AND REDEVELOP...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST...ON TUESDAY.
WINDS BECOME N/NE ON TUESDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR IS
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG COULD DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE
LATE TIN THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT W-SW FLOW 10-15 KT (15-20 KT IN THE LOWER CHES
BAY) OUT AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT WHICH IS PRESENTLY DROPPING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS GENERALLY RUNNING 2-3 FT
THIS AFTN, HIGHEST OVER NORTHERN WATERS. THE COLD FRONT WILL THE
WATERS EARLY TONIGHT, WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE NNW AFTER 00Z
AS MODEST CAA SURGE RIDES DOWN THE BAY. WINDS COULD GUST TO SCA FOR
ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS THIS AFTN, BUT SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA BRIEFLY
LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY THIS EVENING. DESPITE THIS LULL, CONTINUED
SCA OVER THE BAY AND LOWER JAMES UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH
THE IDEA OF WINDS SLOWLY SUBSIDING TUESDAY MORNING. WILL HANDLE
WORDING OF RAMP UP OF WINDS IN THE MWW/CWF.

WINDS BECOME ONSHORE AND DIMINISH AOB 10KT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH MIDWEEK. STAYED CLOSE TO NWPS, WITH ONSHORE
FLOW KEEPING SEAS ELEVATED AROUND 2 TO 4 FT. COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EAST BY THE WEEKEND, WITH WINDS VEERING
AROUND TO THE S-SW LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING
AGAIN OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAM






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 282012
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
412 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE FOR THURSDAY.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE CST TNGT INTO TUE. BREEZY WEST WINDS
USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTN...WILL CALM DOWN
AND TURN TO THE NW THEN N TNGT INTO TUE MORNG. WILL MAINTAIN JUST
A SLGT CHC FOR A SHOWER OR TSTM INTO EARLY THIS EVENG...MAINLY OVR
NE NC...AS THE FRONT MAY INTERACT WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND MORE COMFORTABLE TNGT
WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FM THE UPR 50S EXTRM NW...TO THE UPR 60S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AND RATHER PLEASANT TUE AND WED (ESPLY TUE)...AS SFC HI PRES
BLDS INTO AND OVR THE AREA...DESPITE LONGWAVE TROF DIGGING
(SITTING) OVR THE MID ATLC REGION. AN ISLTD SHOWER OR TSTM COULD
OCCUR OVR NE NC TUE AFTN...AS THE BASE OF THE UPR LEVEL TROF SWINGS
THRU THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A WEAK SFC LO LINGERING JUST
OFF THE NC CST. UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...MAX TEMPS
WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S. GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR TUE
NGT WITH LOWS RANGING FM THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S MOST PLACES.
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ON WED WITH HIGHS IN THE LWR TO MID 80S.
MOSTLY CLEAR WED NGT WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FM THE UPR 50S TO MID
60S. HI PRES WILL BE OFF THE CST FOR THU...WITH E THRU S FLO ACRS
THE AREA. SLGT INCREASE IN HUMIDITY. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH
MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S (MAYBE SOME UPR 80S).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD STAYS
DRY THU NGT/FRIDAY...WITH SOME SCT (MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN) SHRAS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE MS VLY AND A COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL LOCATE
ALONG/JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL ALSO
BRING AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY THROUGH THIS SAME WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT
WEEK TIME FRAME. FOR TEMPS, LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW
CLIMO NORMAL...GENERALLY RIDING INTO THE L-M 80S. EARLY MORNING LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S SAT MORNING, INCREMENTALLY INCREASING TO U60S
TO AROUND 70 BY EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 17Z...DEEP WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
SHIFTING THE WINDS TO NW/N BY EVENING. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD ADVECTION ALOFT WAS RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STRATOCU/MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THIS SHOULD LARGELY CLEAR THIS
EVENING AND REDEVELOP...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST...ON TUESDAY.
WINDS BECOME N/NE ON TUESDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR IS
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG COULD DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE
LATE TIN THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT W-SW FLOW 10-15 KT (15-20 KT IN THE LOWER CHES
BAY) OUT AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT WHICH IS PRESENTLY DROPPING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS GENERALLY RUNNING 2-3 FT
THIS AFTN, HIGHEST OVER NORTHERN WATERS. THE COLD FRONT WILL THE
WATERS EARLY TONIGHT, WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE NNW AFTER 00Z
AS MODEST CAA SURGE RIDES DOWN THE BAY. WINDS COULD GUST TO SCA FOR
ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS THIS AFTN, BUT SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA BRIEFLY
LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY THIS EVENING. DESPITE THIS LULL, CONTINUED
SCA OVER THE BAY AND LOWER JAMES UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH
THE IDEA OF WINDS SLOWLY SUBSIDING TUESDAY MORNING. WILL HANDLE
WORDING OF RAMP UP OF WINDS IN THE MWW/CWF.

WINDS BECOME ONSHORE AND DIMINISH AOB 10KT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH MIDWEEK. STAYED CLOSE TO NWPS, WITH ONSHORE
FLOW KEEPING SEAS ELEVATED AROUND 2 TO 4 FT. COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EAST BY THE WEEKEND, WITH WINDS VEERING
AROUND TO THE S-SW LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING
AGAIN OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAM






000
FXUS61 KRNK 281952
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
352 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE EAST
COAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LIKEWISE...COOL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD...AND ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...MODERATING TEMPERATURES...AND POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM EDT MONDAY...

A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WERE ADVECTING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXISTS BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR A GENEROUS CUMULUS CLOUD STREETS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH
THE GREATEST ABUNDANCE IN THE WEST. ALSO...ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE
NOTED OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING COUNTIES
OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT THE STRONGEST 850
MB JET STREAK CROSSED THE AREA AROUND MID-DAY...AND A TREND TOWARD
WEAKER WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SURFACE
WINDS SHOULD LIKEWISE GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME
LIGHT DURING THE OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE ON THE
COOL SIDE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...WITH MOST AREAS FORECAST
WITHIN FIVE DEGREES OF RECORD LOW MINIMUMS. THE FORECAST LOW OF 55
AT BLUEFIELD WOULD TIE THE RECORD. SPECIFIC RECORDS ARE IN THE
CLIMATE SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION.

ON TUESDAY...OUR COOL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH THE AXIS OF THE
UPPER TROUGH STILL OVER OUR REGION...AND THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. EMBEDDED WITH THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH PATTERN...MODEL GUIDANCE OFFER A SOLUTION WITH A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE MAIN FLOW CROSSING MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE AREA...IN THE
PATH OF THE DISTURBANCE AND WITHIN A ZONE OF WEAK UPSLOPE 850 MB
FLOW. HIGH ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE AROUND FIVE DEGREES
COOLER THAN THOSE REALIZED TODAY. LOW TO MID 70S ARE FORECAST ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS WITH UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. A VERY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THURSDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GRADUALLY INCREASE BACK
UP INTO THE 1.0 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE BY LATE THURSDAY.

BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR WEDNESDAY SHOW ENOUGH MIXING TO BRING
DEW POINTS DOWN INTO THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WILL STAY CLOSE TO COOLER GUIDANCE FOR LOWS ON BOTH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RECORD LOWS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...

UPPER 500 MB TROF OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES AMPLIFIES ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. MODELS SIMILAR IN SHOWING HEIGHT FALLS ON THE SOUTHERN END
OF THE TROF AND WHAT MAY EVENTUALLY BE A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OR SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES MONDAY.

MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY BUT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF ANY ORGANIZED LIFT TO TRIGGER ANY PRECIPITATION ASIDE
FROM DAILY THREAT OF AIRMASS TYPE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS THERE WILL BE MINIMAL CHANGES IN HIGH
AND LOW TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY EXTREMES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT MONDAY...

GUSTY SURFACE CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS
THE AREA CURRENTLY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA. AS THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...SURFACE
WIND AND GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE 850 MB SPEED MAX
EXITS THE REGION. WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION...LIGHT WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL ALSO DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET.

TONIGHT...WE EXPECT A RETURN OF MVFR CIGS AND SOME POCKETS OF MVFR
VSBYS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY
IMPROVE TO VFR TUESDAY MORNING. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE SWEEPS
THROUGH THE OVERALL LONGWAVE TROUGH PATTERN.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

PERSISTENT TROUGH PATTERN IN THE EAST WILL GRADUALLY RETROGRADE
WEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY SAVE SOME LATE NIGHT EARLY MORNING
PATCHY MVFR FOG IN THE MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEYS. AFTER
THURSDAY...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS FARTHER WEST...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A RETURN OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND A GREATER ABUNDANCE OF
SHOWERS...AND POTENTIALLY STORMS...IN THE FORECAST HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND. THIS ALSO WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED CHANCES OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WITHIN THE AREA OF THE SHOWERS...AND THEN AGAIN
OVERNIGHT IN THE FORM OF LIGHT FOG OR STRATUS AS BOUNDARY MOISTURE
GETS TRAPPED UNDER THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.

&&

.CLIMATE...

JULY 29TH RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......52...1925
BLUEFIELD....55...2013
DANVILLE.....58...1968
LEWISBURG....46...2013
LYNCHBURG....53...1920
BLACKSBURG...50...1983


JULY 30TH RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......54...1997
BLUEFIELD....50...1981
DANVILLE.....60...1972/81/83/2013
LEWISBURG....46...2013
LYNCHBURG....52...1997
BLACKSBURG...50...1973/81


JULY 31ST RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......49...1914
BLUEFIELD....49...1997
DANVILLE.....55...1966
LEWISBURG....48...1997
LYNCHBURG....49...1997
BLACKSBURG...44...1997

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO AT WYTHEVILLE VA...WZ2500...BROADCASTING
ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.450 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR. TECHNICIANS HAVE
BEEN NOTIFIED. NO ESTIMATE FOR RETURN TO SERVICE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS
CLIMATE...DS/PH
EQUIPMENT...DS



000
FXUS61 KRNK 281952
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
352 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE EAST
COAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LIKEWISE...COOL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD...AND ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...MODERATING TEMPERATURES...AND POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM EDT MONDAY...

A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WERE ADVECTING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXISTS BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR A GENEROUS CUMULUS CLOUD STREETS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH
THE GREATEST ABUNDANCE IN THE WEST. ALSO...ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE
NOTED OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING COUNTIES
OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT THE STRONGEST 850
MB JET STREAK CROSSED THE AREA AROUND MID-DAY...AND A TREND TOWARD
WEAKER WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SURFACE
WINDS SHOULD LIKEWISE GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME
LIGHT DURING THE OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE ON THE
COOL SIDE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...WITH MOST AREAS FORECAST
WITHIN FIVE DEGREES OF RECORD LOW MINIMUMS. THE FORECAST LOW OF 55
AT BLUEFIELD WOULD TIE THE RECORD. SPECIFIC RECORDS ARE IN THE
CLIMATE SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION.

ON TUESDAY...OUR COOL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH THE AXIS OF THE
UPPER TROUGH STILL OVER OUR REGION...AND THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. EMBEDDED WITH THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH PATTERN...MODEL GUIDANCE OFFER A SOLUTION WITH A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE MAIN FLOW CROSSING MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE AREA...IN THE
PATH OF THE DISTURBANCE AND WITHIN A ZONE OF WEAK UPSLOPE 850 MB
FLOW. HIGH ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE AROUND FIVE DEGREES
COOLER THAN THOSE REALIZED TODAY. LOW TO MID 70S ARE FORECAST ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS WITH UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. A VERY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THURSDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GRADUALLY INCREASE BACK
UP INTO THE 1.0 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE BY LATE THURSDAY.

BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR WEDNESDAY SHOW ENOUGH MIXING TO BRING
DEW POINTS DOWN INTO THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WILL STAY CLOSE TO COOLER GUIDANCE FOR LOWS ON BOTH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RECORD LOWS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...

UPPER 500 MB TROF OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES AMPLIFIES ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. MODELS SIMILAR IN SHOWING HEIGHT FALLS ON THE SOUTHERN END
OF THE TROF AND WHAT MAY EVENTUALLY BE A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OR SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES MONDAY.

MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY BUT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF ANY ORGANIZED LIFT TO TRIGGER ANY PRECIPITATION ASIDE
FROM DAILY THREAT OF AIRMASS TYPE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS THERE WILL BE MINIMAL CHANGES IN HIGH
AND LOW TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY EXTREMES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT MONDAY...

GUSTY SURFACE CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS
THE AREA CURRENTLY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA. AS THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...SURFACE
WIND AND GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE 850 MB SPEED MAX
EXITS THE REGION. WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION...LIGHT WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL ALSO DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET.

TONIGHT...WE EXPECT A RETURN OF MVFR CIGS AND SOME POCKETS OF MVFR
VSBYS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY
IMPROVE TO VFR TUESDAY MORNING. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE SWEEPS
THROUGH THE OVERALL LONGWAVE TROUGH PATTERN.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

PERSISTENT TROUGH PATTERN IN THE EAST WILL GRADUALLY RETROGRADE
WEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY SAVE SOME LATE NIGHT EARLY MORNING
PATCHY MVFR FOG IN THE MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEYS. AFTER
THURSDAY...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS FARTHER WEST...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A RETURN OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND A GREATER ABUNDANCE OF
SHOWERS...AND POTENTIALLY STORMS...IN THE FORECAST HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND. THIS ALSO WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED CHANCES OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WITHIN THE AREA OF THE SHOWERS...AND THEN AGAIN
OVERNIGHT IN THE FORM OF LIGHT FOG OR STRATUS AS BOUNDARY MOISTURE
GETS TRAPPED UNDER THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.

&&

.CLIMATE...

JULY 29TH RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......52...1925
BLUEFIELD....55...2013
DANVILLE.....58...1968
LEWISBURG....46...2013
LYNCHBURG....53...1920
BLACKSBURG...50...1983


JULY 30TH RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......54...1997
BLUEFIELD....50...1981
DANVILLE.....60...1972/81/83/2013
LEWISBURG....46...2013
LYNCHBURG....52...1997
BLACKSBURG...50...1973/81


JULY 31ST RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......49...1914
BLUEFIELD....49...1997
DANVILLE.....55...1966
LEWISBURG....48...1997
LYNCHBURG....49...1997
BLACKSBURG...44...1997

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO AT WYTHEVILLE VA...WZ2500...BROADCASTING
ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.450 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR. TECHNICIANS HAVE
BEEN NOTIFIED. NO ESTIMATE FOR RETURN TO SERVICE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS
CLIMATE...DS/PH
EQUIPMENT...DS



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KLWX 281840
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
240 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. DRIER WEATHER WILL
MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FOR
MIDWEEK... BRINGING COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TODAY AND
DEWPTS HAVE DROPPED TO THE 50S WITH A FEW LOW 60S NEAR THE BAY. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY HAS LED TO STRATO CU CONDITION ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
WESTERLY FLOW. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS LED TO GUSTY W-NW
WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE BY LATE TONIGHT AND TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S
LOW 50S IN THE HIGHLANDS TO THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE NRN PIEDMONT
AND SRN MD.

A UPPER LOW WILL PERSIST TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
REGION. NRLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE BRINGING UNSEASONABLE COOL TEMPS
TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. FCST MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ARE EXPECTED.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE NEARS AND WINDS RELAX. FCST MIN TEMPS TUES NIGHT RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S IN THE MTNS TO THE UPPER 50S NEAR
INTERSTATE 95.

HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A
DISTURBANCE MOVES AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. TEMPS WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL BARELY REACHING 80 DEG.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE SETS UP WEAK RETURN FLOW FOR THURSDAY AS
LARGE COLD-CORE UPPER  LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO HUDSON BAY
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. MARINE WEDGE LOOKS TO
BE IN PLACE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AT THE SURFACE WHILE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO DRAW IN MORE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. WEAK VORTS
IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
FORECAST FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS POSITIVELY TILTED SHORE WAVE TROUGH LIFTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. ASSOCIATED WEAK COOL FRONT LOOKS
TO PUSH THROUGH OR STALL FROM 00 TO 12Z SUNDAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
LOOKS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER MARGINAL TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL MAKE SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...NO
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED HOWEVER HEAVY RAIN IS A POSSIBILITY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GUSTY NW WINDS 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KTS WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET WITH NW WINDS
5-10KTS OCCURING OVERNIGHT. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE NEAR
THE TERMINALS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS RELAX TUESDAY
NIGHT AND PATCHY FOG MAY IMPACT CHO-MRB EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL DRAW IN WARMER AND MORE
HUMID CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL RESULT
IN DAILY CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY WHILE NW WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS PERSIST ON THE WATERS. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE WATERS
TODAY. NRN PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DROP LATE TONIGHT AS MIXING
LESSENS ON THE SMALLER ZONES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. NRLY WINDS 5-10 KTS EXPECTED TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY ON THE WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL DRAW IN WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
DAILY CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT. SOUTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     540-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...AEB
AVIATION...HAS/AEB
MARINE...HAS/AEB








000
FXUS61 KLWX 281840
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
240 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. DRIER WEATHER WILL
MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FOR
MIDWEEK... BRINGING COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TODAY AND
DEWPTS HAVE DROPPED TO THE 50S WITH A FEW LOW 60S NEAR THE BAY. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY HAS LED TO STRATO CU CONDITION ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
WESTERLY FLOW. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS LED TO GUSTY W-NW
WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE BY LATE TONIGHT AND TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S
LOW 50S IN THE HIGHLANDS TO THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE NRN PIEDMONT
AND SRN MD.

A UPPER LOW WILL PERSIST TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
REGION. NRLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE BRINGING UNSEASONABLE COOL TEMPS
TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. FCST MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ARE EXPECTED.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE NEARS AND WINDS RELAX. FCST MIN TEMPS TUES NIGHT RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S IN THE MTNS TO THE UPPER 50S NEAR
INTERSTATE 95.

HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A
DISTURBANCE MOVES AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. TEMPS WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL BARELY REACHING 80 DEG.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE SETS UP WEAK RETURN FLOW FOR THURSDAY AS
LARGE COLD-CORE UPPER  LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO HUDSON BAY
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. MARINE WEDGE LOOKS TO
BE IN PLACE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AT THE SURFACE WHILE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO DRAW IN MORE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. WEAK VORTS
IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
FORECAST FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS POSITIVELY TILTED SHORE WAVE TROUGH LIFTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. ASSOCIATED WEAK COOL FRONT LOOKS
TO PUSH THROUGH OR STALL FROM 00 TO 12Z SUNDAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
LOOKS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER MARGINAL TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL MAKE SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...NO
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED HOWEVER HEAVY RAIN IS A POSSIBILITY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GUSTY NW WINDS 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KTS WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET WITH NW WINDS
5-10KTS OCCURING OVERNIGHT. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE NEAR
THE TERMINALS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS RELAX TUESDAY
NIGHT AND PATCHY FOG MAY IMPACT CHO-MRB EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL DRAW IN WARMER AND MORE
HUMID CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL RESULT
IN DAILY CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY WHILE NW WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS PERSIST ON THE WATERS. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE WATERS
TODAY. NRN PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DROP LATE TONIGHT AS MIXING
LESSENS ON THE SMALLER ZONES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. NRLY WINDS 5-10 KTS EXPECTED TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY ON THE WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL DRAW IN WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
DAILY CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT. SOUTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     540-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...AEB
AVIATION...HAS/AEB
MARINE...HAS/AEB







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281752
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
152 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN STALLS OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ACTUAL SFC COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING INTO CNTRL VA AND NC LATE THIS
MORNG...AS BREEZY WEST WINDS RIGHT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WERE
DROPPING DWPTS INTO THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
TWD THE CST THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG. WILL MAINTAIN A SLGT CHC
FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS OVER FAR SE VA/NE NC...AS THE FRONT MAY
INTERACT WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY.

A WLY 80-90 KT JET STREAK NOSING INTO CNTRL VA THIS AFTN WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SUBSIDENCE OF MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW
DOWNSLOPE DRYING TO ENDURE AND RESULT IN BREEZY WEST WINDS ARND 20
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. THE WELL-MIXED ENVIRONMENT WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE NICELY WHILE DRIVING DWPTS DOWN DRAMATICALLY
(MID 50S NW TO LWR 60S SE)...AS COMPARED TO THE PAST WEEK OR SO.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S...UNDER A MOSTLY TO
PARTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE COAST THIS EVENING. SINCE MOST
SHOWERS HAVE OCCURRED WELL OUT AHEAD OF IT...ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTN SHOULD COME TO AN END BY SUNRISE OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. A COOLER AND MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS
AHEAD WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S NW TO UPPER 60S SE AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
LIGHT NORTH WINDS DEVELOP BY TUESDAY AND WEAK CAA IS ANTICIPATED.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED AFTN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG CHES
BAY INTO FAR SE VA/NE NC AS THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A WEAK SFC LOW
LINGERING ALONG THE NOW STALLED CAROLINA COASTAL FRONT. POPS ARE
CAPPED FROM 15-20 PERCENT AT BEST. TEMPS WILL FEEL COOL AND
COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER
70S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S INLAND/MID-UPPER 60S AT IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION WED/WED NIGHT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW-MID 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF OVR THE MID ATLC REGION WED NGT...WILL
RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND DEEPEN THU THRU SUN.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING OFF THE MID ATLC CST WED NGT INTO
FRI...WILL DRIFT BACK TWD THE CST LATE FRI THRU SUN. FOR NOW...WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR WED NGT INTO FRI...THEN INCREASE TO SLGT CHC
OR CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT THRU SUN. STILL FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WED NGT
AND THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY/LO LVL MOIST RETURNS
FOR FRI THRU SUN. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID
80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S
THU MORNG...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI MORNG...RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT
MORNG...AND RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SUN MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 17Z...DEEP WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
SHIFTING THE WINDS TO NW/N BY EVENING. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD ADVECTION ALOFT WAS RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STRATOCU/MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THIS SHOULD LARGELY CLEAR THIS
EVENING AND REDEVELOP...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST...ON TUESDAY.
WINDS BECOME N/NE ON TUESDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR IS
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG COULD DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE
LATE TIN THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR THE BAY AND LOWER JAMES HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO INCLUDE THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH 08Z TUESDAY. WINDS DURING THE AFTN WILL
OCCASIONALLY GUST TO SCA. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN THE WINDS EARLY
THIS EVENING BEFORE A NW SURGE DEVELOPS TOWARD MIDNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A CDFNT PUSHES ACROSS THE MID ATLC WTRS BY LT THIS
AFTN/EVE...THEN WELL E OFF THE CST BY LATE TNGT/EARLY TUE. SURGE
IN SPEEDS ATTM W/ WSW WNDS...RESULTING IN LO END SCA FOR THE
BAY/PORTION OF RIVERS. WNDS (BECOME) W TDA...XPCG SPEEDS TO WANE
THIS AFTN/EVE...THEN BECOME NW AND N TNGT INTO TUE MRNG. VRB
WINDS AOB 10 KT XCPD WED THRU THU.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD/TMG
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...ALB/LSA







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281752
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
152 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN STALLS OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ACTUAL SFC COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING INTO CNTRL VA AND NC LATE THIS
MORNG...AS BREEZY WEST WINDS RIGHT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WERE
DROPPING DWPTS INTO THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
TWD THE CST THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG. WILL MAINTAIN A SLGT CHC
FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS OVER FAR SE VA/NE NC...AS THE FRONT MAY
INTERACT WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY.

A WLY 80-90 KT JET STREAK NOSING INTO CNTRL VA THIS AFTN WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SUBSIDENCE OF MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW
DOWNSLOPE DRYING TO ENDURE AND RESULT IN BREEZY WEST WINDS ARND 20
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. THE WELL-MIXED ENVIRONMENT WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE NICELY WHILE DRIVING DWPTS DOWN DRAMATICALLY
(MID 50S NW TO LWR 60S SE)...AS COMPARED TO THE PAST WEEK OR SO.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S...UNDER A MOSTLY TO
PARTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE COAST THIS EVENING. SINCE MOST
SHOWERS HAVE OCCURRED WELL OUT AHEAD OF IT...ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTN SHOULD COME TO AN END BY SUNRISE OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. A COOLER AND MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS
AHEAD WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S NW TO UPPER 60S SE AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
LIGHT NORTH WINDS DEVELOP BY TUESDAY AND WEAK CAA IS ANTICIPATED.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED AFTN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG CHES
BAY INTO FAR SE VA/NE NC AS THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A WEAK SFC LOW
LINGERING ALONG THE NOW STALLED CAROLINA COASTAL FRONT. POPS ARE
CAPPED FROM 15-20 PERCENT AT BEST. TEMPS WILL FEEL COOL AND
COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER
70S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S INLAND/MID-UPPER 60S AT IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION WED/WED NIGHT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW-MID 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF OVR THE MID ATLC REGION WED NGT...WILL
RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND DEEPEN THU THRU SUN.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING OFF THE MID ATLC CST WED NGT INTO
FRI...WILL DRIFT BACK TWD THE CST LATE FRI THRU SUN. FOR NOW...WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR WED NGT INTO FRI...THEN INCREASE TO SLGT CHC
OR CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT THRU SUN. STILL FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WED NGT
AND THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY/LO LVL MOIST RETURNS
FOR FRI THRU SUN. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID
80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S
THU MORNG...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI MORNG...RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT
MORNG...AND RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SUN MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 17Z...DEEP WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
SHIFTING THE WINDS TO NW/N BY EVENING. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD ADVECTION ALOFT WAS RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STRATOCU/MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THIS SHOULD LARGELY CLEAR THIS
EVENING AND REDEVELOP...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST...ON TUESDAY.
WINDS BECOME N/NE ON TUESDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR IS
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG COULD DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE
LATE TIN THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR THE BAY AND LOWER JAMES HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO INCLUDE THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH 08Z TUESDAY. WINDS DURING THE AFTN WILL
OCCASIONALLY GUST TO SCA. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN THE WINDS EARLY
THIS EVENING BEFORE A NW SURGE DEVELOPS TOWARD MIDNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A CDFNT PUSHES ACROSS THE MID ATLC WTRS BY LT THIS
AFTN/EVE...THEN WELL E OFF THE CST BY LATE TNGT/EARLY TUE. SURGE
IN SPEEDS ATTM W/ WSW WNDS...RESULTING IN LO END SCA FOR THE
BAY/PORTION OF RIVERS. WNDS (BECOME) W TDA...XPCG SPEEDS TO WANE
THIS AFTN/EVE...THEN BECOME NW AND N TNGT INTO TUE MRNG. VRB
WINDS AOB 10 KT XCPD WED THRU THU.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD/TMG
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...ALB/LSA







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281752
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
152 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN STALLS OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ACTUAL SFC COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING INTO CNTRL VA AND NC LATE THIS
MORNG...AS BREEZY WEST WINDS RIGHT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WERE
DROPPING DWPTS INTO THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
TWD THE CST THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG. WILL MAINTAIN A SLGT CHC
FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS OVER FAR SE VA/NE NC...AS THE FRONT MAY
INTERACT WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY.

A WLY 80-90 KT JET STREAK NOSING INTO CNTRL VA THIS AFTN WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SUBSIDENCE OF MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW
DOWNSLOPE DRYING TO ENDURE AND RESULT IN BREEZY WEST WINDS ARND 20
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. THE WELL-MIXED ENVIRONMENT WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE NICELY WHILE DRIVING DWPTS DOWN DRAMATICALLY
(MID 50S NW TO LWR 60S SE)...AS COMPARED TO THE PAST WEEK OR SO.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S...UNDER A MOSTLY TO
PARTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE COAST THIS EVENING. SINCE MOST
SHOWERS HAVE OCCURRED WELL OUT AHEAD OF IT...ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTN SHOULD COME TO AN END BY SUNRISE OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. A COOLER AND MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS
AHEAD WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S NW TO UPPER 60S SE AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
LIGHT NORTH WINDS DEVELOP BY TUESDAY AND WEAK CAA IS ANTICIPATED.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED AFTN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG CHES
BAY INTO FAR SE VA/NE NC AS THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A WEAK SFC LOW
LINGERING ALONG THE NOW STALLED CAROLINA COASTAL FRONT. POPS ARE
CAPPED FROM 15-20 PERCENT AT BEST. TEMPS WILL FEEL COOL AND
COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER
70S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S INLAND/MID-UPPER 60S AT IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION WED/WED NIGHT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW-MID 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF OVR THE MID ATLC REGION WED NGT...WILL
RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND DEEPEN THU THRU SUN.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING OFF THE MID ATLC CST WED NGT INTO
FRI...WILL DRIFT BACK TWD THE CST LATE FRI THRU SUN. FOR NOW...WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR WED NGT INTO FRI...THEN INCREASE TO SLGT CHC
OR CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT THRU SUN. STILL FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WED NGT
AND THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY/LO LVL MOIST RETURNS
FOR FRI THRU SUN. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID
80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S
THU MORNG...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI MORNG...RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT
MORNG...AND RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SUN MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 17Z...DEEP WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
SHIFTING THE WINDS TO NW/N BY EVENING. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD ADVECTION ALOFT WAS RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STRATOCU/MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THIS SHOULD LARGELY CLEAR THIS
EVENING AND REDEVELOP...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST...ON TUESDAY.
WINDS BECOME N/NE ON TUESDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR IS
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG COULD DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE
LATE TIN THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR THE BAY AND LOWER JAMES HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO INCLUDE THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH 08Z TUESDAY. WINDS DURING THE AFTN WILL
OCCASIONALLY GUST TO SCA. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN THE WINDS EARLY
THIS EVENING BEFORE A NW SURGE DEVELOPS TOWARD MIDNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A CDFNT PUSHES ACROSS THE MID ATLC WTRS BY LT THIS
AFTN/EVE...THEN WELL E OFF THE CST BY LATE TNGT/EARLY TUE. SURGE
IN SPEEDS ATTM W/ WSW WNDS...RESULTING IN LO END SCA FOR THE
BAY/PORTION OF RIVERS. WNDS (BECOME) W TDA...XPCG SPEEDS TO WANE
THIS AFTN/EVE...THEN BECOME NW AND N TNGT INTO TUE MRNG. VRB
WINDS AOB 10 KT XCPD WED THRU THU.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD/TMG
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...ALB/LSA







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281752
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
152 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN STALLS OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ACTUAL SFC COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING INTO CNTRL VA AND NC LATE THIS
MORNG...AS BREEZY WEST WINDS RIGHT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WERE
DROPPING DWPTS INTO THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
TWD THE CST THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG. WILL MAINTAIN A SLGT CHC
FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS OVER FAR SE VA/NE NC...AS THE FRONT MAY
INTERACT WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY.

A WLY 80-90 KT JET STREAK NOSING INTO CNTRL VA THIS AFTN WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SUBSIDENCE OF MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW
DOWNSLOPE DRYING TO ENDURE AND RESULT IN BREEZY WEST WINDS ARND 20
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. THE WELL-MIXED ENVIRONMENT WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE NICELY WHILE DRIVING DWPTS DOWN DRAMATICALLY
(MID 50S NW TO LWR 60S SE)...AS COMPARED TO THE PAST WEEK OR SO.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S...UNDER A MOSTLY TO
PARTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE COAST THIS EVENING. SINCE MOST
SHOWERS HAVE OCCURRED WELL OUT AHEAD OF IT...ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTN SHOULD COME TO AN END BY SUNRISE OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. A COOLER AND MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS
AHEAD WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S NW TO UPPER 60S SE AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
LIGHT NORTH WINDS DEVELOP BY TUESDAY AND WEAK CAA IS ANTICIPATED.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED AFTN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG CHES
BAY INTO FAR SE VA/NE NC AS THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A WEAK SFC LOW
LINGERING ALONG THE NOW STALLED CAROLINA COASTAL FRONT. POPS ARE
CAPPED FROM 15-20 PERCENT AT BEST. TEMPS WILL FEEL COOL AND
COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER
70S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S INLAND/MID-UPPER 60S AT IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION WED/WED NIGHT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW-MID 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF OVR THE MID ATLC REGION WED NGT...WILL
RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND DEEPEN THU THRU SUN.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING OFF THE MID ATLC CST WED NGT INTO
FRI...WILL DRIFT BACK TWD THE CST LATE FRI THRU SUN. FOR NOW...WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR WED NGT INTO FRI...THEN INCREASE TO SLGT CHC
OR CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT THRU SUN. STILL FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WED NGT
AND THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY/LO LVL MOIST RETURNS
FOR FRI THRU SUN. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID
80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S
THU MORNG...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI MORNG...RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT
MORNG...AND RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SUN MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 17Z...DEEP WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
SHIFTING THE WINDS TO NW/N BY EVENING. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD ADVECTION ALOFT WAS RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STRATOCU/MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THIS SHOULD LARGELY CLEAR THIS
EVENING AND REDEVELOP...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST...ON TUESDAY.
WINDS BECOME N/NE ON TUESDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR IS
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG COULD DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE
LATE TIN THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR THE BAY AND LOWER JAMES HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO INCLUDE THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH 08Z TUESDAY. WINDS DURING THE AFTN WILL
OCCASIONALLY GUST TO SCA. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN THE WINDS EARLY
THIS EVENING BEFORE A NW SURGE DEVELOPS TOWARD MIDNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A CDFNT PUSHES ACROSS THE MID ATLC WTRS BY LT THIS
AFTN/EVE...THEN WELL E OFF THE CST BY LATE TNGT/EARLY TUE. SURGE
IN SPEEDS ATTM W/ WSW WNDS...RESULTING IN LO END SCA FOR THE
BAY/PORTION OF RIVERS. WNDS (BECOME) W TDA...XPCG SPEEDS TO WANE
THIS AFTN/EVE...THEN BECOME NW AND N TNGT INTO TUE MRNG. VRB
WINDS AOB 10 KT XCPD WED THRU THU.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD/TMG
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...ALB/LSA







000
FXUS61 KRNK 281736
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
136 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER DRIER CANADIAN AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC BEHIND A
COLD FRONT TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE FORECAST REGION LATE
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...IN ADDITION TO SPOTTY UPSLOPE
SHOWERS ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES. COOLER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT MONDAY...

ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE ARRIVED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA AS OF 1200 PM. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...STILL MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH
CAROLINA. SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. HAVE MADE LIMITED ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AREA OF COVERAGE AND TIMING.

HAVE TWEAKED FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURE UPWARD A FEW DEGREES ACROSS
MOST AREA EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...A SOME LOCATIONS
WITHIN THE MOUNTAINS. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ARE
RISING MORE QUICKLY THAN EARLIER FORECAST...AND ADDITIONAL HEATING
IS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

AS OF 955 AM EDT MONDAY...

HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.
HAVE REMOVED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN PART
OF THE AREA FOR ABOUT THEN NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS. EXPECTING MORE OF A
NOON TO 100 PM INITIATION TIME FOR ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THIS
REGION. CURRENT COVERAGE HAS WANED TO ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES OVER
WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY WV. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE AND
DEW POINT TO REFLECT THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...

ASIDE FROM A FEW SPRINKLES LEFT OVER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING...ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS EXITED THE AREA FOR THE TIME
BEING. THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS ACROSS
WEST VIRGINIA AS THE PARENT SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EAST OVER EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA...AND EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO ENTER OUR SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES BY AROUND SUNRISE...PUSHING RAPIDLY EAST
THROUGH THE MORNING.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE MORNING WILL BE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS BEHIND THE FRONT AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PASSES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. STRONG WINDS WRAPPING
AROUND THE SOUTHERN END OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT
GUSTS TO MAX OUT AS HIGH AS 40 MPH AT TIMES AT ELEVATIONS OF 30OO
FEET AND UP. THE MAIN ENERGY MOVING AROUND THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA DURING MID AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT TO
SEE WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THEREAFTER.

WITH WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWESTERLY AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DISTURBANCE DURING EARLY AFTERNOON...WILL ALSO SEE SPOTTY UPSLOPE
SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOP ACROSS OUR WESTERN RIDGELINES OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. LAPSE RATES WILL
BECOME STEEP ENOUGH FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON THAT
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP INTO
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT BELIEVE THOSE WILL BE FEW AND FAR IN BETWEEN
AT BEST. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE INTO THE EVENING AS WIND
SPEEDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...BUT EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS TO LINGER
INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TODAY ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE TIME FOR DECENT HEATING
BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT CONSIDERING THE
DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND DRY DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY WINDS. EXPECT
HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE WESTERN RIDGES TO THE
UPPER 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE
LOW 50S WEST AND THE LOW 60S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT MONDAY...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROF WILL
COVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE JULY.

WITH ONLY A THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE EXPECTED BETWEEN 5-10KT
TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION WILL BE HARD TO COME BY...BUT KEPT A SMALL
CHANCE IN FAR SOUTHWEST VA AND NW NC...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF. OTHERWISE...ONLY SOME
CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL COVER THE REGION. TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE
COOLEST DAY DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE GEFS FORECASTING 850MB
TEMPS 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN VERY CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN WITH ITS HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST....SO STRAYED LITTLE FROM THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S
FORECAST IN THE MOUNTAINS TO UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE.

A WEAK LOW THAT FORMS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TUESDAY LIFTS NORTHEAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH EAST TO NOT INFLUENCE OUR
WEATHER. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 12Z (8 AM EDT) WEDNESDAY. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW LOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 40S IN SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE EAST.
THESE VALUES WILL BE CLOSE TO THE RECORDS FOR JULY 30TH. SEE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW FOR RECORD LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY.

UPPER TROF RELAXES SOME ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING 850MB TEMPS TO WARM
A COUPLE OF DEGREES VERSUS TUESDAY. STILL...TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL. THE 00Z NAM AND 21Z SREF APPEAR BULLISH ON DEVELOPING
UPSLOPE SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR IN PLACE...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO
SIT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT WITH DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY HIGHER...LOWS WILL BE A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THURSDAY MORNING...BUT STILL WELL BELOW
NORMAL AND CLOSE TO RECORD LOWS IN SOME LOCATIONS LIKE LWB.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A SURFACE HIGH THURSDAY OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN WILL SHIFT EAST
TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AT THE MID LEVELS A
PERSISTENT TROUGH IS SET UP OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN US. THURSDAY LACKS LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE SO EXPECT
THE DAY TO BE DRY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE FOR FRIDAY AND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES PIVOT ACROSS
THE REGION AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING AND TAPER OFF TO
JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING. FOCUS OF THE HIGHEST
CHANCE POPS ARE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE WILL
BE LOCATED...WITH LOWER CHANCE POPS OUT EAST.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH 850MB TEMPS
AROUND +16C. THIS WILL CORRESPOND TO SURFACE HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID
80S OUT EAST AND NEAR 80 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST ON FRIDAY THE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM N/NW TO AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION. THIS WILL WEDGE THE AREA IN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. WITH THE INCREASED LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. THIS ALONG WITH EXPECTED SCATTERED PRECIP AND 850MB
TEMPS FALLING TO +11-14C...SURFACE HIGH TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT MONDAY...

GUSTY SURFACE CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS
THE AREA CURRENTLY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA. AS THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...SURFACE
WIND AND GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE 850 MB SPEED MAX
EXITS THE REGION. WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION...LIGHT WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL ALSO DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET.

TONIGHT...WE EXPECT A RETURN OF MVFR CIGS AND SOME POCKETS OF MVFR
VSBYS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY
IMPROVE TO VFR TUESDAY MORNING. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE SWEEPS
THROUGH THE OVERALL LONGWAVE TROUGH PATTERN.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

PERSISTENT TROUGH PATTERN IN THE EAST WILL GRADUALLY RETROGRADE
WEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY SAVE SOME LATE NIGHT EARLY MORNING
PATCHY MVFR FOG IN THE MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEYS. AFTER
THURSDAY...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS FARTHER WEST...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A RETURN OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND A GREATER ABUNDANCE OF
SHOWERS...AND POTENTIALLY STORMS...IN THE FORECAST HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND. THIS ALSO WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED CHANCES OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WITHIN THE AREA OF THE SHOWERS...AND THEN AGAIN
OVERNIGHT IN THE FORM OF LIGHT FOG OR STRATUS AS BOUNDARY MOISTURE
GETS TRAPPED UNDER THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JULY 30TH RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......54...1997
BLUEFIELD....50...1981
DANVILLE.....60...1972/81/83/2013
LEWISBURG....46...2013
LYNCHBURG....52...1997
BLACKSBURG...50...1973/81


JULY 31ST RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......49...1914
BLUEFIELD....49...1997
DANVILLE.....55...1966
LEWISBURG....48...1997
LYNCHBURG....49...1997
BLACKSBURG...44...1997

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO AT HINTON WEST VIRGINIA IS BACK ON THE
AIR. HOWEVER...THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO AT WYTHEVILLE
VA...WZ2500...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.450 MHZ...IS OFF
THE AIR. TECHNICIANS ARE BEING NOTIFIED. NO ESTIMATE FOR RETURN TO
SERVICE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/NF
NEAR TERM...DS/NF
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...DS
CLIMATE...PH
EQUIPMENT...DS



000
FXUS61 KRNK 281736
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
136 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER DRIER CANADIAN AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC BEHIND A
COLD FRONT TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE FORECAST REGION LATE
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...IN ADDITION TO SPOTTY UPSLOPE
SHOWERS ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES. COOLER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT MONDAY...

ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE ARRIVED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA AS OF 1200 PM. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...STILL MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH
CAROLINA. SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. HAVE MADE LIMITED ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AREA OF COVERAGE AND TIMING.

HAVE TWEAKED FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURE UPWARD A FEW DEGREES ACROSS
MOST AREA EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...A SOME LOCATIONS
WITHIN THE MOUNTAINS. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ARE
RISING MORE QUICKLY THAN EARLIER FORECAST...AND ADDITIONAL HEATING
IS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

AS OF 955 AM EDT MONDAY...

HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.
HAVE REMOVED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN PART
OF THE AREA FOR ABOUT THEN NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS. EXPECTING MORE OF A
NOON TO 100 PM INITIATION TIME FOR ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THIS
REGION. CURRENT COVERAGE HAS WANED TO ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES OVER
WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY WV. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE AND
DEW POINT TO REFLECT THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...

ASIDE FROM A FEW SPRINKLES LEFT OVER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING...ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS EXITED THE AREA FOR THE TIME
BEING. THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS ACROSS
WEST VIRGINIA AS THE PARENT SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EAST OVER EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA...AND EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO ENTER OUR SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES BY AROUND SUNRISE...PUSHING RAPIDLY EAST
THROUGH THE MORNING.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE MORNING WILL BE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS BEHIND THE FRONT AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PASSES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. STRONG WINDS WRAPPING
AROUND THE SOUTHERN END OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT
GUSTS TO MAX OUT AS HIGH AS 40 MPH AT TIMES AT ELEVATIONS OF 30OO
FEET AND UP. THE MAIN ENERGY MOVING AROUND THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA DURING MID AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT TO
SEE WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THEREAFTER.

WITH WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWESTERLY AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DISTURBANCE DURING EARLY AFTERNOON...WILL ALSO SEE SPOTTY UPSLOPE
SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOP ACROSS OUR WESTERN RIDGELINES OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. LAPSE RATES WILL
BECOME STEEP ENOUGH FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON THAT
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP INTO
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT BELIEVE THOSE WILL BE FEW AND FAR IN BETWEEN
AT BEST. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE INTO THE EVENING AS WIND
SPEEDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...BUT EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS TO LINGER
INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TODAY ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE TIME FOR DECENT HEATING
BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT CONSIDERING THE
DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND DRY DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY WINDS. EXPECT
HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE WESTERN RIDGES TO THE
UPPER 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE
LOW 50S WEST AND THE LOW 60S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT MONDAY...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROF WILL
COVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE JULY.

WITH ONLY A THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE EXPECTED BETWEEN 5-10KT
TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION WILL BE HARD TO COME BY...BUT KEPT A SMALL
CHANCE IN FAR SOUTHWEST VA AND NW NC...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF. OTHERWISE...ONLY SOME
CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL COVER THE REGION. TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE
COOLEST DAY DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE GEFS FORECASTING 850MB
TEMPS 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN VERY CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN WITH ITS HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST....SO STRAYED LITTLE FROM THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S
FORECAST IN THE MOUNTAINS TO UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE.

A WEAK LOW THAT FORMS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TUESDAY LIFTS NORTHEAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH EAST TO NOT INFLUENCE OUR
WEATHER. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 12Z (8 AM EDT) WEDNESDAY. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW LOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 40S IN SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE EAST.
THESE VALUES WILL BE CLOSE TO THE RECORDS FOR JULY 30TH. SEE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW FOR RECORD LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY.

UPPER TROF RELAXES SOME ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING 850MB TEMPS TO WARM
A COUPLE OF DEGREES VERSUS TUESDAY. STILL...TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL. THE 00Z NAM AND 21Z SREF APPEAR BULLISH ON DEVELOPING
UPSLOPE SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR IN PLACE...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO
SIT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT WITH DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY HIGHER...LOWS WILL BE A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THURSDAY MORNING...BUT STILL WELL BELOW
NORMAL AND CLOSE TO RECORD LOWS IN SOME LOCATIONS LIKE LWB.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A SURFACE HIGH THURSDAY OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN WILL SHIFT EAST
TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AT THE MID LEVELS A
PERSISTENT TROUGH IS SET UP OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN US. THURSDAY LACKS LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE SO EXPECT
THE DAY TO BE DRY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE FOR FRIDAY AND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES PIVOT ACROSS
THE REGION AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING AND TAPER OFF TO
JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING. FOCUS OF THE HIGHEST
CHANCE POPS ARE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE WILL
BE LOCATED...WITH LOWER CHANCE POPS OUT EAST.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH 850MB TEMPS
AROUND +16C. THIS WILL CORRESPOND TO SURFACE HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID
80S OUT EAST AND NEAR 80 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST ON FRIDAY THE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM N/NW TO AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION. THIS WILL WEDGE THE AREA IN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. WITH THE INCREASED LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. THIS ALONG WITH EXPECTED SCATTERED PRECIP AND 850MB
TEMPS FALLING TO +11-14C...SURFACE HIGH TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT MONDAY...

GUSTY SURFACE CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS
THE AREA CURRENTLY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA. AS THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...SURFACE
WIND AND GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE 850 MB SPEED MAX
EXITS THE REGION. WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION...LIGHT WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL ALSO DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET.

TONIGHT...WE EXPECT A RETURN OF MVFR CIGS AND SOME POCKETS OF MVFR
VSBYS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY
IMPROVE TO VFR TUESDAY MORNING. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE SWEEPS
THROUGH THE OVERALL LONGWAVE TROUGH PATTERN.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

PERSISTENT TROUGH PATTERN IN THE EAST WILL GRADUALLY RETROGRADE
WEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY SAVE SOME LATE NIGHT EARLY MORNING
PATCHY MVFR FOG IN THE MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEYS. AFTER
THURSDAY...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS FARTHER WEST...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A RETURN OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND A GREATER ABUNDANCE OF
SHOWERS...AND POTENTIALLY STORMS...IN THE FORECAST HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND. THIS ALSO WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED CHANCES OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WITHIN THE AREA OF THE SHOWERS...AND THEN AGAIN
OVERNIGHT IN THE FORM OF LIGHT FOG OR STRATUS AS BOUNDARY MOISTURE
GETS TRAPPED UNDER THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JULY 30TH RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......54...1997
BLUEFIELD....50...1981
DANVILLE.....60...1972/81/83/2013
LEWISBURG....46...2013
LYNCHBURG....52...1997
BLACKSBURG...50...1973/81


JULY 31ST RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......49...1914
BLUEFIELD....49...1997
DANVILLE.....55...1966
LEWISBURG....48...1997
LYNCHBURG....49...1997
BLACKSBURG...44...1997

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO AT HINTON WEST VIRGINIA IS BACK ON THE
AIR. HOWEVER...THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO AT WYTHEVILLE
VA...WZ2500...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.450 MHZ...IS OFF
THE AIR. TECHNICIANS ARE BEING NOTIFIED. NO ESTIMATE FOR RETURN TO
SERVICE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/NF
NEAR TERM...DS/NF
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...DS
CLIMATE...PH
EQUIPMENT...DS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 281653
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1253 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER DRIER CANADIAN AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC BEHIND A
COLD FRONT TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE FORECAST REGION LATE
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...IN ADDITION TO SPOTTY UPSLOPE
SHOWERS ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES. COOLER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT MONDAY...

ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE ARRIVED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA AS OF 1200 PM. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...STILL MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRIGINIA AND NEIGHBORING COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH
CAROLINA. SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. HAVE MADE LIMITED ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AREA OF COVERAGE AND TIMING.

HAVE TWEAKED FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURE UPWARD A FEW DEGREES ACROSS
MOST AREA EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...A SOME LOCATIONS
WITHIN THE MOUNTAINS. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ARE
RISING MORE QUICKLY THAN EARLIER FORECAST...AND ADDITIONAL HEATING
IS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

AS OF 955 AM EDT MONDAY...

HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.
HAVE REMOVED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN PART
OF THE AREA FOR ABOUT THEN NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS. EXPECTING MORE OF A
NOON TO 100 PM INITIATION TIME FOR ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THIS
REGION. CURRENT COVERAGE HAS WANED TO ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES OVER
WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY WV. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE AND
DEW POINT TO REFLECT THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...

ASIDE FROM A FEW SPRINKLES LEFT OVER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING...ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS EXITED THE AREA FOR THE TIME
BEING. THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS ACROSS
WEST VIRGINIA AS THE PARENT SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EAST OVER EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA...AND EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO ENTER OUR SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES BY AROUND SUNRISE...PUSHING RAPIDLY EAST
THROUGH THE MORNING.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE MORNING WILL BE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS BEHIND THE FRONT AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PASSES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. STRONG WINDS WRAPPING
AROUND THE SOUTHERN END OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT
GUSTS TO MAX OUT AS HIGH AS 40 MPH AT TIMES AT ELEVATIONS OF 30OO
FEET AND UP. THE MAIN ENERGY MOVING AROUND THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA DURING MID AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT TO
SEE WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THEREAFTER.

WITH WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWESTERLY AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DISTURBANCE DURING EARLY AFTERNOON...WILL ALSO SEE SPOTTY UPSLOPE
SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOP ACROSS OUR WESTERN RIDGELINES OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. LAPSE RATES WILL
BECOME STEEP ENOUGH FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON THAT
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP INTO
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT BELIEVE THOSE WILL BE FEW AND FAR IN BETWEEN
AT BEST. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE INTO THE EVENING AS WIND
SPEEDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...BUT EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS TO LINGER
INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TODAY ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE TIME FOR DECENT HEATING
BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT CONSIDERING THE
DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND DRY DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY WINDS. EXPECT
HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE WESTERN RIDGES TO THE
UPPER 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE
LOW 50S WEST AND THE LOW 60S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT MONDAY...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROF WILL
COVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE JULY.

WITH ONLY A THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE EXPECTED BETWEEN 5-10KT
TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION WILL BE HARD TO COME BY...BUT KEPT A SMALL
CHANCE IN FAR SOUTHWEST VA AND NW NC...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF. OTHERWISE...ONLY SOME
CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL COVER THE REGION. TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE
COOLEST DAY DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE GEFS FORECASTING 850MB
TEMPS 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN VERY CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN WITH ITS HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST....SO STRAYED LITTLE FROM THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S
FORECAST IN THE MOUNTAINS TO UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE.

A WEAK LOW THAT FORMS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TUESDAY LIFTS NORTHEAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH EAST TO NOT INFLUENCE OUR
WEATHER. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 12Z (8 AM EDT) WEDNESDAY. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW LOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 40S IN SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE EAST.
THESE VALUES WILL BE CLOSE TO THE RECORDS FOR JULY 30TH. SEE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW FOR RECORD LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY.

UPPER TROF RELAXES SOME ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING 850MB TEMPS TO WARM
A COUPLE OF DEGREES VERSUS TUESDAY. STILL...TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL. THE 00Z NAM AND 21Z SREF APPEAR BULLISH ON DEVELOPING
UPSLOPE SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR IN PLACE...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO
SIT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT WITH DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY HIGHER...LOWS WILL BE A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THURSDAY MORNING...BUT STILL WELL BELOW
NORMAL AND CLOSE TO RECORD LOWS IN SOME LOCATIONS LIKE LWB.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A SURFACE HIGH THURSDAY OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN WILL SHIFT EAST
TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AT THE MID LEVELS A
PERSISTENT TROUGH IS SET UP OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN US. THURSDAY LACKS LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE SO EXPECT
THE DAY TO BE DRY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE FOR FRIDAY AND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES PIVOT ACROSS
THE REGION AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING AND TAPER OFF TO
JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING. FOCUS OF THE HIGHEST
CHANCE POPS ARE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE WILL
BE LOCATED...WITH LOWER CHANCE POPS OUT EAST.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH 850MB TEMPS
AROUND +16C. THIS WILL CORRESPOND TO SURFACE HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID
80S OUT EAST AND NEAR 80 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST ON FRIDAY THE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM N/NW TO AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION. THIS WILL WEDGE THE AREA IN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. WITH THE INCREASED LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. THIS ALONG WITH EXPECTED SCATTERED PRECIP AND 850MB
TEMPS FALLING TO +11-14C...SURFACE HIGH TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 715 AM EDT MONDAY...

A COLD FRONT IN SOUTHEAST WV EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE FORECST AREA BY 18Z. UPSLOPE IFR/MVFR CIGS IN SE
WV/FAR SW VA...INCLUDING KBLF WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO A VFR CIG BY
LATE MORNING.

THE BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN TODAY IS THE GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND. GUSTS OVER 25KTS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS...INCLUDING KROA...KBLF...AND KBCB WITH 15-25KT GUSTS
ESLEWHERE.

OTHERWISE...ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROF WILL COMBINE
WITH UPSLOPE AND INSTABILITY BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND
STEEPISH LAPSE RATES AS SEEN ON MODEL SOUNDINGS TO SQUEEZE OUT A
FEW SPRINKLES AT KLWB AND KBLF THROUGH THE DAY.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS
THE REGION. MVFR CIGS AGAIN FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES...INCLUDING KLWB...KBLF AND PERHAPS KBCB LATE
TONIGHT...ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG OVER THE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
FAVORED AREAS SUCH AT KLWB.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FOR TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WILL BRING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT LATE NIGHT FOG AT KBCB/KLWB...
ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVELS MAY STAY DRY ENOUGH FOR LESS FOG COVERAGE.

VARIABLE CIGS EXPECTED UNDER ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW THROUGHOUT THE
REST OF THE WEEK. A FEW -SHRA NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION
ACROSS EASTERN WV...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. TYPICAL FOG
POTENTIAL LESS THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK BECAUSE OF TURBULENT MIXING AND PREVAILING CYCLONIC FLOW.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE UPPER LOW RETROGRADES JUST
WEST OF THE REGION...INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA BUT MAINLY
SW OF THE TAF SITES INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JULY 30TH RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......54...1997
BLUEFIELD....50...1981
DANVILLE.....60...1972/81/83/2013
LEWISBURG....46...2013
LYNCHBURG....52...1997
BLACKSBURG...50...1973/81


JULY 31ST RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......49...1914
BLUEFIELD....49...1997
DANVILLE.....55...1966
LEWISBURG....48...1997
LYNCHBURG....49...1997
BLACKSBURG...44...1997

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE WEATHER RADIO AT HINTON WEST VA TRANSMITTING ON FREQUENCY
162.425 MHZ REMAINS OFF THE AIR LIKELY DUE TO PHONE LINE PROBLEMS.
RESTORATION OF SERVICE IS NOT EXPECTED BEFORE NOON ON MONDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/NF
NEAR TERM...DS/NF
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...NF/PH
CLIMATE...PH
EQUIPMENT...JH




000
FXUS61 KRNK 281653
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1253 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER DRIER CANADIAN AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC BEHIND A
COLD FRONT TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE FORECAST REGION LATE
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...IN ADDITION TO SPOTTY UPSLOPE
SHOWERS ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES. COOLER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT MONDAY...

ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE ARRIVED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA AS OF 1200 PM. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...STILL MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRIGINIA AND NEIGHBORING COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH
CAROLINA. SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. HAVE MADE LIMITED ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AREA OF COVERAGE AND TIMING.

HAVE TWEAKED FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURE UPWARD A FEW DEGREES ACROSS
MOST AREA EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...A SOME LOCATIONS
WITHIN THE MOUNTAINS. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ARE
RISING MORE QUICKLY THAN EARLIER FORECAST...AND ADDITIONAL HEATING
IS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

AS OF 955 AM EDT MONDAY...

HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.
HAVE REMOVED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN PART
OF THE AREA FOR ABOUT THEN NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS. EXPECTING MORE OF A
NOON TO 100 PM INITIATION TIME FOR ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THIS
REGION. CURRENT COVERAGE HAS WANED TO ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES OVER
WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY WV. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE AND
DEW POINT TO REFLECT THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...

ASIDE FROM A FEW SPRINKLES LEFT OVER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING...ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS EXITED THE AREA FOR THE TIME
BEING. THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS ACROSS
WEST VIRGINIA AS THE PARENT SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EAST OVER EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA...AND EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO ENTER OUR SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES BY AROUND SUNRISE...PUSHING RAPIDLY EAST
THROUGH THE MORNING.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE MORNING WILL BE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS BEHIND THE FRONT AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PASSES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. STRONG WINDS WRAPPING
AROUND THE SOUTHERN END OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT
GUSTS TO MAX OUT AS HIGH AS 40 MPH AT TIMES AT ELEVATIONS OF 30OO
FEET AND UP. THE MAIN ENERGY MOVING AROUND THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA DURING MID AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT TO
SEE WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THEREAFTER.

WITH WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWESTERLY AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DISTURBANCE DURING EARLY AFTERNOON...WILL ALSO SEE SPOTTY UPSLOPE
SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOP ACROSS OUR WESTERN RIDGELINES OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. LAPSE RATES WILL
BECOME STEEP ENOUGH FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON THAT
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP INTO
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT BELIEVE THOSE WILL BE FEW AND FAR IN BETWEEN
AT BEST. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE INTO THE EVENING AS WIND
SPEEDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...BUT EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS TO LINGER
INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TODAY ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE TIME FOR DECENT HEATING
BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT CONSIDERING THE
DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND DRY DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY WINDS. EXPECT
HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE WESTERN RIDGES TO THE
UPPER 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE
LOW 50S WEST AND THE LOW 60S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT MONDAY...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROF WILL
COVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE JULY.

WITH ONLY A THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE EXPECTED BETWEEN 5-10KT
TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION WILL BE HARD TO COME BY...BUT KEPT A SMALL
CHANCE IN FAR SOUTHWEST VA AND NW NC...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF. OTHERWISE...ONLY SOME
CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL COVER THE REGION. TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE
COOLEST DAY DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE GEFS FORECASTING 850MB
TEMPS 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN VERY CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN WITH ITS HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST....SO STRAYED LITTLE FROM THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S
FORECAST IN THE MOUNTAINS TO UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE.

A WEAK LOW THAT FORMS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TUESDAY LIFTS NORTHEAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH EAST TO NOT INFLUENCE OUR
WEATHER. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 12Z (8 AM EDT) WEDNESDAY. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW LOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 40S IN SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE EAST.
THESE VALUES WILL BE CLOSE TO THE RECORDS FOR JULY 30TH. SEE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW FOR RECORD LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY.

UPPER TROF RELAXES SOME ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING 850MB TEMPS TO WARM
A COUPLE OF DEGREES VERSUS TUESDAY. STILL...TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL. THE 00Z NAM AND 21Z SREF APPEAR BULLISH ON DEVELOPING
UPSLOPE SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR IN PLACE...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO
SIT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT WITH DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY HIGHER...LOWS WILL BE A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THURSDAY MORNING...BUT STILL WELL BELOW
NORMAL AND CLOSE TO RECORD LOWS IN SOME LOCATIONS LIKE LWB.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A SURFACE HIGH THURSDAY OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN WILL SHIFT EAST
TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AT THE MID LEVELS A
PERSISTENT TROUGH IS SET UP OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN US. THURSDAY LACKS LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE SO EXPECT
THE DAY TO BE DRY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE FOR FRIDAY AND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES PIVOT ACROSS
THE REGION AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING AND TAPER OFF TO
JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING. FOCUS OF THE HIGHEST
CHANCE POPS ARE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE WILL
BE LOCATED...WITH LOWER CHANCE POPS OUT EAST.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH 850MB TEMPS
AROUND +16C. THIS WILL CORRESPOND TO SURFACE HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID
80S OUT EAST AND NEAR 80 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST ON FRIDAY THE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM N/NW TO AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION. THIS WILL WEDGE THE AREA IN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. WITH THE INCREASED LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. THIS ALONG WITH EXPECTED SCATTERED PRECIP AND 850MB
TEMPS FALLING TO +11-14C...SURFACE HIGH TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 715 AM EDT MONDAY...

A COLD FRONT IN SOUTHEAST WV EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE FORECST AREA BY 18Z. UPSLOPE IFR/MVFR CIGS IN SE
WV/FAR SW VA...INCLUDING KBLF WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO A VFR CIG BY
LATE MORNING.

THE BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN TODAY IS THE GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND. GUSTS OVER 25KTS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS...INCLUDING KROA...KBLF...AND KBCB WITH 15-25KT GUSTS
ESLEWHERE.

OTHERWISE...ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROF WILL COMBINE
WITH UPSLOPE AND INSTABILITY BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND
STEEPISH LAPSE RATES AS SEEN ON MODEL SOUNDINGS TO SQUEEZE OUT A
FEW SPRINKLES AT KLWB AND KBLF THROUGH THE DAY.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS
THE REGION. MVFR CIGS AGAIN FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES...INCLUDING KLWB...KBLF AND PERHAPS KBCB LATE
TONIGHT...ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG OVER THE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
FAVORED AREAS SUCH AT KLWB.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FOR TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WILL BRING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT LATE NIGHT FOG AT KBCB/KLWB...
ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVELS MAY STAY DRY ENOUGH FOR LESS FOG COVERAGE.

VARIABLE CIGS EXPECTED UNDER ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW THROUGHOUT THE
REST OF THE WEEK. A FEW -SHRA NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION
ACROSS EASTERN WV...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. TYPICAL FOG
POTENTIAL LESS THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK BECAUSE OF TURBULENT MIXING AND PREVAILING CYCLONIC FLOW.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE UPPER LOW RETROGRADES JUST
WEST OF THE REGION...INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA BUT MAINLY
SW OF THE TAF SITES INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JULY 30TH RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......54...1997
BLUEFIELD....50...1981
DANVILLE.....60...1972/81/83/2013
LEWISBURG....46...2013
LYNCHBURG....52...1997
BLACKSBURG...50...1973/81


JULY 31ST RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......49...1914
BLUEFIELD....49...1997
DANVILLE.....55...1966
LEWISBURG....48...1997
LYNCHBURG....49...1997
BLACKSBURG...44...1997

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE WEATHER RADIO AT HINTON WEST VA TRANSMITTING ON FREQUENCY
162.425 MHZ REMAINS OFF THE AIR LIKELY DUE TO PHONE LINE PROBLEMS.
RESTORATION OF SERVICE IS NOT EXPECTED BEFORE NOON ON MONDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/NF
NEAR TERM...DS/NF
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...NF/PH
CLIMATE...PH
EQUIPMENT...JH




000
FXUS61 KRNK 281653
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1253 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER DRIER CANADIAN AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC BEHIND A
COLD FRONT TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE FORECAST REGION LATE
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...IN ADDITION TO SPOTTY UPSLOPE
SHOWERS ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES. COOLER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT MONDAY...

ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE ARRIVED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA AS OF 1200 PM. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...STILL MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRIGINIA AND NEIGHBORING COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH
CAROLINA. SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. HAVE MADE LIMITED ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AREA OF COVERAGE AND TIMING.

HAVE TWEAKED FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURE UPWARD A FEW DEGREES ACROSS
MOST AREA EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...A SOME LOCATIONS
WITHIN THE MOUNTAINS. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ARE
RISING MORE QUICKLY THAN EARLIER FORECAST...AND ADDITIONAL HEATING
IS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

AS OF 955 AM EDT MONDAY...

HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.
HAVE REMOVED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN PART
OF THE AREA FOR ABOUT THEN NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS. EXPECTING MORE OF A
NOON TO 100 PM INITIATION TIME FOR ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THIS
REGION. CURRENT COVERAGE HAS WANED TO ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES OVER
WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY WV. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE AND
DEW POINT TO REFLECT THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...

ASIDE FROM A FEW SPRINKLES LEFT OVER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING...ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS EXITED THE AREA FOR THE TIME
BEING. THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS ACROSS
WEST VIRGINIA AS THE PARENT SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EAST OVER EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA...AND EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO ENTER OUR SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES BY AROUND SUNRISE...PUSHING RAPIDLY EAST
THROUGH THE MORNING.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE MORNING WILL BE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS BEHIND THE FRONT AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PASSES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. STRONG WINDS WRAPPING
AROUND THE SOUTHERN END OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT
GUSTS TO MAX OUT AS HIGH AS 40 MPH AT TIMES AT ELEVATIONS OF 30OO
FEET AND UP. THE MAIN ENERGY MOVING AROUND THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA DURING MID AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT TO
SEE WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THEREAFTER.

WITH WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWESTERLY AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DISTURBANCE DURING EARLY AFTERNOON...WILL ALSO SEE SPOTTY UPSLOPE
SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOP ACROSS OUR WESTERN RIDGELINES OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. LAPSE RATES WILL
BECOME STEEP ENOUGH FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON THAT
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP INTO
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT BELIEVE THOSE WILL BE FEW AND FAR IN BETWEEN
AT BEST. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE INTO THE EVENING AS WIND
SPEEDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...BUT EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS TO LINGER
INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TODAY ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE TIME FOR DECENT HEATING
BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT CONSIDERING THE
DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND DRY DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY WINDS. EXPECT
HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE WESTERN RIDGES TO THE
UPPER 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE
LOW 50S WEST AND THE LOW 60S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT MONDAY...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROF WILL
COVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE JULY.

WITH ONLY A THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE EXPECTED BETWEEN 5-10KT
TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION WILL BE HARD TO COME BY...BUT KEPT A SMALL
CHANCE IN FAR SOUTHWEST VA AND NW NC...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF. OTHERWISE...ONLY SOME
CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL COVER THE REGION. TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE
COOLEST DAY DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE GEFS FORECASTING 850MB
TEMPS 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN VERY CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN WITH ITS HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST....SO STRAYED LITTLE FROM THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S
FORECAST IN THE MOUNTAINS TO UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE.

A WEAK LOW THAT FORMS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TUESDAY LIFTS NORTHEAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH EAST TO NOT INFLUENCE OUR
WEATHER. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 12Z (8 AM EDT) WEDNESDAY. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW LOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 40S IN SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE EAST.
THESE VALUES WILL BE CLOSE TO THE RECORDS FOR JULY 30TH. SEE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW FOR RECORD LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY.

UPPER TROF RELAXES SOME ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING 850MB TEMPS TO WARM
A COUPLE OF DEGREES VERSUS TUESDAY. STILL...TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL. THE 00Z NAM AND 21Z SREF APPEAR BULLISH ON DEVELOPING
UPSLOPE SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR IN PLACE...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO
SIT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT WITH DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY HIGHER...LOWS WILL BE A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THURSDAY MORNING...BUT STILL WELL BELOW
NORMAL AND CLOSE TO RECORD LOWS IN SOME LOCATIONS LIKE LWB.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A SURFACE HIGH THURSDAY OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN WILL SHIFT EAST
TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AT THE MID LEVELS A
PERSISTENT TROUGH IS SET UP OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN US. THURSDAY LACKS LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE SO EXPECT
THE DAY TO BE DRY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE FOR FRIDAY AND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES PIVOT ACROSS
THE REGION AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING AND TAPER OFF TO
JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING. FOCUS OF THE HIGHEST
CHANCE POPS ARE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE WILL
BE LOCATED...WITH LOWER CHANCE POPS OUT EAST.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH 850MB TEMPS
AROUND +16C. THIS WILL CORRESPOND TO SURFACE HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID
80S OUT EAST AND NEAR 80 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST ON FRIDAY THE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM N/NW TO AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION. THIS WILL WEDGE THE AREA IN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. WITH THE INCREASED LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. THIS ALONG WITH EXPECTED SCATTERED PRECIP AND 850MB
TEMPS FALLING TO +11-14C...SURFACE HIGH TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 715 AM EDT MONDAY...

A COLD FRONT IN SOUTHEAST WV EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE FORECST AREA BY 18Z. UPSLOPE IFR/MVFR CIGS IN SE
WV/FAR SW VA...INCLUDING KBLF WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO A VFR CIG BY
LATE MORNING.

THE BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN TODAY IS THE GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND. GUSTS OVER 25KTS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS...INCLUDING KROA...KBLF...AND KBCB WITH 15-25KT GUSTS
ESLEWHERE.

OTHERWISE...ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROF WILL COMBINE
WITH UPSLOPE AND INSTABILITY BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND
STEEPISH LAPSE RATES AS SEEN ON MODEL SOUNDINGS TO SQUEEZE OUT A
FEW SPRINKLES AT KLWB AND KBLF THROUGH THE DAY.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS
THE REGION. MVFR CIGS AGAIN FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES...INCLUDING KLWB...KBLF AND PERHAPS KBCB LATE
TONIGHT...ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG OVER THE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
FAVORED AREAS SUCH AT KLWB.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FOR TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WILL BRING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT LATE NIGHT FOG AT KBCB/KLWB...
ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVELS MAY STAY DRY ENOUGH FOR LESS FOG COVERAGE.

VARIABLE CIGS EXPECTED UNDER ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW THROUGHOUT THE
REST OF THE WEEK. A FEW -SHRA NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION
ACROSS EASTERN WV...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. TYPICAL FOG
POTENTIAL LESS THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK BECAUSE OF TURBULENT MIXING AND PREVAILING CYCLONIC FLOW.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE UPPER LOW RETROGRADES JUST
WEST OF THE REGION...INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA BUT MAINLY
SW OF THE TAF SITES INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JULY 30TH RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......54...1997
BLUEFIELD....50...1981
DANVILLE.....60...1972/81/83/2013
LEWISBURG....46...2013
LYNCHBURG....52...1997
BLACKSBURG...50...1973/81


JULY 31ST RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......49...1914
BLUEFIELD....49...1997
DANVILLE.....55...1966
LEWISBURG....48...1997
LYNCHBURG....49...1997
BLACKSBURG...44...1997

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE WEATHER RADIO AT HINTON WEST VA TRANSMITTING ON FREQUENCY
162.425 MHZ REMAINS OFF THE AIR LIKELY DUE TO PHONE LINE PROBLEMS.
RESTORATION OF SERVICE IS NOT EXPECTED BEFORE NOON ON MONDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/NF
NEAR TERM...DS/NF
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...NF/PH
CLIMATE...PH
EQUIPMENT...JH




000
FXUS61 KRNK 281653
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1253 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER DRIER CANADIAN AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC BEHIND A
COLD FRONT TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE FORECAST REGION LATE
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...IN ADDITION TO SPOTTY UPSLOPE
SHOWERS ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES. COOLER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT MONDAY...

ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE ARRIVED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA AS OF 1200 PM. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...STILL MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRIGINIA AND NEIGHBORING COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH
CAROLINA. SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. HAVE MADE LIMITED ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AREA OF COVERAGE AND TIMING.

HAVE TWEAKED FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURE UPWARD A FEW DEGREES ACROSS
MOST AREA EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...A SOME LOCATIONS
WITHIN THE MOUNTAINS. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ARE
RISING MORE QUICKLY THAN EARLIER FORECAST...AND ADDITIONAL HEATING
IS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

AS OF 955 AM EDT MONDAY...

HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.
HAVE REMOVED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN PART
OF THE AREA FOR ABOUT THEN NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS. EXPECTING MORE OF A
NOON TO 100 PM INITIATION TIME FOR ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THIS
REGION. CURRENT COVERAGE HAS WANED TO ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES OVER
WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY WV. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE AND
DEW POINT TO REFLECT THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...

ASIDE FROM A FEW SPRINKLES LEFT OVER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING...ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS EXITED THE AREA FOR THE TIME
BEING. THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS ACROSS
WEST VIRGINIA AS THE PARENT SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EAST OVER EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA...AND EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO ENTER OUR SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES BY AROUND SUNRISE...PUSHING RAPIDLY EAST
THROUGH THE MORNING.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE MORNING WILL BE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS BEHIND THE FRONT AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PASSES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. STRONG WINDS WRAPPING
AROUND THE SOUTHERN END OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT
GUSTS TO MAX OUT AS HIGH AS 40 MPH AT TIMES AT ELEVATIONS OF 30OO
FEET AND UP. THE MAIN ENERGY MOVING AROUND THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA DURING MID AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT TO
SEE WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THEREAFTER.

WITH WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWESTERLY AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DISTURBANCE DURING EARLY AFTERNOON...WILL ALSO SEE SPOTTY UPSLOPE
SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOP ACROSS OUR WESTERN RIDGELINES OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. LAPSE RATES WILL
BECOME STEEP ENOUGH FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON THAT
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP INTO
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT BELIEVE THOSE WILL BE FEW AND FAR IN BETWEEN
AT BEST. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE INTO THE EVENING AS WIND
SPEEDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...BUT EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS TO LINGER
INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TODAY ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE TIME FOR DECENT HEATING
BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT CONSIDERING THE
DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND DRY DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY WINDS. EXPECT
HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE WESTERN RIDGES TO THE
UPPER 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE
LOW 50S WEST AND THE LOW 60S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT MONDAY...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROF WILL
COVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE JULY.

WITH ONLY A THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE EXPECTED BETWEEN 5-10KT
TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION WILL BE HARD TO COME BY...BUT KEPT A SMALL
CHANCE IN FAR SOUTHWEST VA AND NW NC...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF. OTHERWISE...ONLY SOME
CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL COVER THE REGION. TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE
COOLEST DAY DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE GEFS FORECASTING 850MB
TEMPS 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN VERY CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN WITH ITS HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST....SO STRAYED LITTLE FROM THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S
FORECAST IN THE MOUNTAINS TO UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE.

A WEAK LOW THAT FORMS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TUESDAY LIFTS NORTHEAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH EAST TO NOT INFLUENCE OUR
WEATHER. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 12Z (8 AM EDT) WEDNESDAY. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW LOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 40S IN SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE EAST.
THESE VALUES WILL BE CLOSE TO THE RECORDS FOR JULY 30TH. SEE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW FOR RECORD LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY.

UPPER TROF RELAXES SOME ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING 850MB TEMPS TO WARM
A COUPLE OF DEGREES VERSUS TUESDAY. STILL...TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL. THE 00Z NAM AND 21Z SREF APPEAR BULLISH ON DEVELOPING
UPSLOPE SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR IN PLACE...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO
SIT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT WITH DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY HIGHER...LOWS WILL BE A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THURSDAY MORNING...BUT STILL WELL BELOW
NORMAL AND CLOSE TO RECORD LOWS IN SOME LOCATIONS LIKE LWB.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A SURFACE HIGH THURSDAY OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN WILL SHIFT EAST
TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AT THE MID LEVELS A
PERSISTENT TROUGH IS SET UP OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN US. THURSDAY LACKS LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE SO EXPECT
THE DAY TO BE DRY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE FOR FRIDAY AND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES PIVOT ACROSS
THE REGION AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING AND TAPER OFF TO
JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING. FOCUS OF THE HIGHEST
CHANCE POPS ARE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE WILL
BE LOCATED...WITH LOWER CHANCE POPS OUT EAST.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH 850MB TEMPS
AROUND +16C. THIS WILL CORRESPOND TO SURFACE HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID
80S OUT EAST AND NEAR 80 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST ON FRIDAY THE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM N/NW TO AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION. THIS WILL WEDGE THE AREA IN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. WITH THE INCREASED LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. THIS ALONG WITH EXPECTED SCATTERED PRECIP AND 850MB
TEMPS FALLING TO +11-14C...SURFACE HIGH TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 715 AM EDT MONDAY...

A COLD FRONT IN SOUTHEAST WV EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE FORECST AREA BY 18Z. UPSLOPE IFR/MVFR CIGS IN SE
WV/FAR SW VA...INCLUDING KBLF WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO A VFR CIG BY
LATE MORNING.

THE BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN TODAY IS THE GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND. GUSTS OVER 25KTS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS...INCLUDING KROA...KBLF...AND KBCB WITH 15-25KT GUSTS
ESLEWHERE.

OTHERWISE...ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROF WILL COMBINE
WITH UPSLOPE AND INSTABILITY BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND
STEEPISH LAPSE RATES AS SEEN ON MODEL SOUNDINGS TO SQUEEZE OUT A
FEW SPRINKLES AT KLWB AND KBLF THROUGH THE DAY.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS
THE REGION. MVFR CIGS AGAIN FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES...INCLUDING KLWB...KBLF AND PERHAPS KBCB LATE
TONIGHT...ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG OVER THE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
FAVORED AREAS SUCH AT KLWB.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FOR TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WILL BRING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT LATE NIGHT FOG AT KBCB/KLWB...
ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVELS MAY STAY DRY ENOUGH FOR LESS FOG COVERAGE.

VARIABLE CIGS EXPECTED UNDER ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW THROUGHOUT THE
REST OF THE WEEK. A FEW -SHRA NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION
ACROSS EASTERN WV...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. TYPICAL FOG
POTENTIAL LESS THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK BECAUSE OF TURBULENT MIXING AND PREVAILING CYCLONIC FLOW.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE UPPER LOW RETROGRADES JUST
WEST OF THE REGION...INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA BUT MAINLY
SW OF THE TAF SITES INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JULY 30TH RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......54...1997
BLUEFIELD....50...1981
DANVILLE.....60...1972/81/83/2013
LEWISBURG....46...2013
LYNCHBURG....52...1997
BLACKSBURG...50...1973/81


JULY 31ST RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......49...1914
BLUEFIELD....49...1997
DANVILLE.....55...1966
LEWISBURG....48...1997
LYNCHBURG....49...1997
BLACKSBURG...44...1997

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE WEATHER RADIO AT HINTON WEST VA TRANSMITTING ON FREQUENCY
162.425 MHZ REMAINS OFF THE AIR LIKELY DUE TO PHONE LINE PROBLEMS.
RESTORATION OF SERVICE IS NOT EXPECTED BEFORE NOON ON MONDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/NF
NEAR TERM...DS/NF
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...NF/PH
CLIMATE...PH
EQUIPMENT...JH




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281442
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1042 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN STALLS OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ACTUAL SFC COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING INTO CNTRL VA AND NC LATE THIS
MORNG...AS BREEZY WEST WINDS RIGHT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WERE
DROPPING DWPTS INTO THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
TWD THE CST THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG. WILL MAINTAIN A SLGT CHC
FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS OVER FAR SE VA/NE NC...AS THE FRONT MAY
INTERACT WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY.

A WLY 80-90 KT JET STREAK NOSING INTO CNTRL VA THIS AFTN WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SUBSIDENCE OF MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW
DOWNSLOPE DRYING TO ENDURE AND RESULT IN BREEZY WEST WINDS ARND 20
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. THE WELL-MIXED ENVIRONMENT WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE NICELY WHILE DRIVING DWPTS DOWN DRAMATICALLY
(MID 50S NW TO LWR 60S SE)...AS COMPARED TO THE PAST WEEK OR SO.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S...UNDER A MOSTLY TO
PARTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE COAST THIS EVENING. SINCE MOST
SHOWERS HAVE OCCURRED WELL OUT AHEAD OF IT...ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTN SHOULD COME TO AN END BY SUNRISE OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. A COOLER AND MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS
AHEAD WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S NW TO UPPER 60S SE AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
LIGHT NORTH WINDS DEVELOP BY TUESDAY AND WEAK CAA IS ANTICIPATED.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED AFTN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG CHES
BAY INTO FAR SE VA/NE NC AS THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A WEAK SFC LOW
LINGERING ALONG THE NOW STALLED CAROLINA COASTAL FRONT. POPS ARE
CAPPED FROM 15-20 PERCENT AT BEST. TEMPS WILL FEEL COOL AND
COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER
70S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S INLAND/MID-UPPER 60S AT IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION WED/WED NIGHT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW-MID 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF OVR THE MID ATLC REGION WED NGT...WILL
RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND DEEPEN THU THRU SUN.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING OFF THE MID ATLC CST WED NGT INTO
FRI...WILL DRIFT BACK TWD THE CST LATE FRI THRU SUN. FOR NOW...WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR WED NGT INTO FRI...THEN INCREASE TO SLGT CHC
OR CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT THRU SUN. STILL FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WED NGT
AND THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY/LO LVL MOIST RETURNS
FOR FRI THRU SUN. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID
80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S
THU MORNG...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI MORNG...RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT
MORNG...AND RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SUN MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DP LYRD WSW FLO OVR THE MDATLC RGN HAS RESULTED IN ANY CONVECTION
EXITING THE MTNS OVRNGT TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES E TWD THE CSTL
PLAIN. NOT RULING OUT ISOLD SHRA/TSTM THROUGH EARLY/MID
MRNG...MNLY INVOF SE VA/NE NC...(MAYBE AGN LT AFTN/EARLY EVE FAR
SE VA/CSTL NE NC)...THOUGH PCPN CHCS LWRG. VFR CONDS XPCD THROUGH
TDA...GUSTY W WNDS TO ABT 25 KT W/ LIMITED CLDNS. SFC CDFNT TO BE
OFF THE CST BY TNGT RESULTING IN WIND SHIFT TO NNW FOR
TNGT/TUE...ALG W/ ONLY SCT CLDNS (CONTD VFR CONDS).

DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST MIDWEEK. SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG IS PSBL
NR SUNRISE BUT WIDESPREAD IFR NOT XPCD AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A CDFNT PUSHES ACROSS THE MID ATLC WTRS BY LT THIS
AFTN/EVE...THEN WELL E OFF THE CST BY LATE TNGT/EARLY TUE. SURGE
IN SPEEDS ATTM W/ WSW WNDS...RESULTING IN LO END SCA FOR THE
BAY/PORTION OF RIVERS. WNDS (BECOME) W TDA...XPCG SPEEDS TO WANE
THIS AFTN/EVE...THEN BECOME NW AND N TNGT INTO TUE MRNG. VRB
WINDS AOB 10 KT XCPD WED THRU THU.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD/TMG
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281442
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1042 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN STALLS OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ACTUAL SFC COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING INTO CNTRL VA AND NC LATE THIS
MORNG...AS BREEZY WEST WINDS RIGHT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WERE
DROPPING DWPTS INTO THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
TWD THE CST THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG. WILL MAINTAIN A SLGT CHC
FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS OVER FAR SE VA/NE NC...AS THE FRONT MAY
INTERACT WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY.

A WLY 80-90 KT JET STREAK NOSING INTO CNTRL VA THIS AFTN WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SUBSIDENCE OF MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW
DOWNSLOPE DRYING TO ENDURE AND RESULT IN BREEZY WEST WINDS ARND 20
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. THE WELL-MIXED ENVIRONMENT WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE NICELY WHILE DRIVING DWPTS DOWN DRAMATICALLY
(MID 50S NW TO LWR 60S SE)...AS COMPARED TO THE PAST WEEK OR SO.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S...UNDER A MOSTLY TO
PARTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE COAST THIS EVENING. SINCE MOST
SHOWERS HAVE OCCURRED WELL OUT AHEAD OF IT...ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTN SHOULD COME TO AN END BY SUNRISE OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. A COOLER AND MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS
AHEAD WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S NW TO UPPER 60S SE AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
LIGHT NORTH WINDS DEVELOP BY TUESDAY AND WEAK CAA IS ANTICIPATED.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED AFTN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG CHES
BAY INTO FAR SE VA/NE NC AS THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A WEAK SFC LOW
LINGERING ALONG THE NOW STALLED CAROLINA COASTAL FRONT. POPS ARE
CAPPED FROM 15-20 PERCENT AT BEST. TEMPS WILL FEEL COOL AND
COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER
70S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S INLAND/MID-UPPER 60S AT IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION WED/WED NIGHT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW-MID 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF OVR THE MID ATLC REGION WED NGT...WILL
RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND DEEPEN THU THRU SUN.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING OFF THE MID ATLC CST WED NGT INTO
FRI...WILL DRIFT BACK TWD THE CST LATE FRI THRU SUN. FOR NOW...WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR WED NGT INTO FRI...THEN INCREASE TO SLGT CHC
OR CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT THRU SUN. STILL FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WED NGT
AND THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY/LO LVL MOIST RETURNS
FOR FRI THRU SUN. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID
80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S
THU MORNG...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI MORNG...RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT
MORNG...AND RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SUN MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DP LYRD WSW FLO OVR THE MDATLC RGN HAS RESULTED IN ANY CONVECTION
EXITING THE MTNS OVRNGT TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES E TWD THE CSTL
PLAIN. NOT RULING OUT ISOLD SHRA/TSTM THROUGH EARLY/MID
MRNG...MNLY INVOF SE VA/NE NC...(MAYBE AGN LT AFTN/EARLY EVE FAR
SE VA/CSTL NE NC)...THOUGH PCPN CHCS LWRG. VFR CONDS XPCD THROUGH
TDA...GUSTY W WNDS TO ABT 25 KT W/ LIMITED CLDNS. SFC CDFNT TO BE
OFF THE CST BY TNGT RESULTING IN WIND SHIFT TO NNW FOR
TNGT/TUE...ALG W/ ONLY SCT CLDNS (CONTD VFR CONDS).

DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST MIDWEEK. SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG IS PSBL
NR SUNRISE BUT WIDESPREAD IFR NOT XPCD AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A CDFNT PUSHES ACROSS THE MID ATLC WTRS BY LT THIS
AFTN/EVE...THEN WELL E OFF THE CST BY LATE TNGT/EARLY TUE. SURGE
IN SPEEDS ATTM W/ WSW WNDS...RESULTING IN LO END SCA FOR THE
BAY/PORTION OF RIVERS. WNDS (BECOME) W TDA...XPCG SPEEDS TO WANE
THIS AFTN/EVE...THEN BECOME NW AND N TNGT INTO TUE MRNG. VRB
WINDS AOB 10 KT XCPD WED THRU THU.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD/TMG
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB






000
FXUS61 KRNK 281409
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1009 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER DRIER CANADIAN AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC BEHIND A
COLD FRONT TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE FORECAST REGION LATE
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...IN ADDITION TO SPOTTY UPSLOPE
SHOWERS ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES. COOLER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 955 AM EDT MONDAY...

HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.
HAVE REMOVED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN PART
OF THE AREA FOR ABOUT THEN NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS. EXPECTING MORE OF A
NOON TO 100 PM INITIATION TIME FOR ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THIS
REGION. CURRENT COVERAGE HAS WANED TO ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES OVER
WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY WV. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE AND
DEW POINT TO REFLECT THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...

ASIDE FROM A FEW SPRINKLES LEFT OVER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING...ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS EXITED THE AREA FOR THE TIME
BEING. THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS ACROSS
WEST VIRGINIA AS THE PARENT SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EAST OVER EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA...AND EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO ENTER OUR SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES BY AROUND SUNRISE...PUSHING RAPIDLY EAST
THROUGH THE MORNING.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE MORNING WILL BE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS BEHIND THE FRONT AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PASSES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. STRONG WINDS WRAPPING
AROUND THE SOUTHERN END OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT
GUSTS TO MAX OUT AS HIGH AS 40 MPH AT TIMES AT ELEVATIONS OF 30OO
FEET AND UP. THE MAIN ENERGY MOVING AROUND THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA DURING MID AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT TO
SEE WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THEREAFTER.

WITH WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWESTERLY AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DISTURBANCE DURING EARLY AFTERNOON...WILL ALSO SEE SPOTTY UPSLOPE
SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOP ACROSS OUR WESTERN RIDGELINES OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. LAPSE RATES WILL
BECOME STEEP ENOUGH FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON THAT
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP INTO
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT BELIEVE THOSE WILL BE FEW AND FAR IN BETWEEN
AT BEST. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE INTO THE EVENING AS WIND
SPEEDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...BUT EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS TO LINGER
INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TODAY ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE TIME FOR DECENT HEATING
BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT CONSIDERING THE
DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND DRY DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY WINDS. EXPECT
HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE WESTERN RIDGES TO THE
UPPER 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE
LOW 50S WEST AND THE LOW 60S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT MONDAY...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROF WILL
COVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE JULY.

WITH ONLY A THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE EXPECTED BETWEEN 5-10KT
TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION WILL BE HARD TO COME BY...BUT KEPT A SMALL
CHANCE IN FAR SOUTHWEST VA AND NW NC...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF. OTHERWISE...ONLY SOME
CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL COVER THE REGION. TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE
COOLEST DAY DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE GEFS FORECASTING 850MB
TEMPS 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN VERY CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN WITH ITS HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST....SO STRAYED LITTLE FROM THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S
FORECAST IN THE MOUNTAINS TO UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE.

A WEAK LOW THAT FORMS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TUESDAY LIFTS NORTHEAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH EAST TO NOT INFLUENCE OUR
WEATHER. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 12Z (8 AM EDT) WEDNESDAY. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW LOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 40S IN SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE EAST.
THESE VALUES WILL BE CLOSE TO THE RECORDS FOR JULY 30TH. SEE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW FOR RECORD LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY.

UPPER TROF RELAXES SOME ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING 850MB TEMPS TO WARM
A COUPLE OF DEGREES VERSUS TUESDAY. STILL...TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL. THE 00Z NAM AND 21Z SREF APPEAR BULLISH ON DEVELOPING
UPSLOPE SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR IN PLACE...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO
SIT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT WITH DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY HIGHER...LOWS WILL BE A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THURSDAY MORNING...BUT STILL WELL BELOW
NORMAL AND CLOSE TO RECORD LOWS IN SOME LOCATIONS LIKE LWB.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A SURFACE HIGH THURSDAY OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN WILL SHIFT EAST
TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AT THE MID LEVELS A
PERSISTENT TROUGH IS SET UP OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN US. THURSDAY LACKS LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE SO EXPECT
THE DAY TO BE DRY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE FOR FRIDAY AND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES PIVOT ACROSS
THE REGION AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING AND TAPER OFF TO
JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING. FOCUS OF THE HIGHEST
CHANCE POPS ARE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE WILL
BE LOCATED...WITH LOWER CHANCE POPS OUT EAST.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH 850MB TEMPS
AROUND +16C. THIS WILL CORRESPOND TO SURFACE HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID
80S OUT EAST AND NEAR 80 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST ON FRIDAY THE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM N/NW TO AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION. THIS WILL WEDGE THE AREA IN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. WITH THE INCREASED LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. THIS ALONG WITH EXPECTED SCATTERED PRECIP AND 850MB
TEMPS FALLING TO +11-14C...SURFACE HIGH TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 715 AM EDT MONDAY...

A COLD FRONT IN SOUTHEAST WV EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE FORECST AREA BY 18Z. UPSLOPE IFR/MVFR CIGS IN SE
WV/FAR SW VA...INCLUDING KBLF WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO A VFR CIG BY
LATE MORNING.

THE BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN TODAY IS THE GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND. GUSTS OVER 25KTS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS...INCLUDING KROA...KBLF...AND KBCB WITH 15-25KT GUSTS
ESLEWHERE.

OTHERWISE...ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROF WILL COMBINE
WITH UPSLOPE AND INSTABILITY BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND
STEEPISH LAPSE RATES AS SEEN ON MODEL SOUNDINGS TO SQUEEZE OUT A
FEW SPRINKLES AT KLWB AND KBLF THROUGH THE DAY.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS
THE REGION. MVFR CIGS AGAIN FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES...INCLUDING KLWB...KBLF AND PERHAPS KBCB LATE
TONIGHT...ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG OVER THE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
FAVORED AREAS SUCH AT KLWB.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FOR TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WILL BRING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT LATE NIGHT FOG AT KBCB/KLWB...
ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVELS MAY STAY DRY ENOUGH FOR LESS FOG COVERAGE.

VARIABLE CIGS EXPECTED UNDER ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW THROUGHOUT THE
REST OF THE WEEK. A FEW -SHRA NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION
ACROSS EASTERN WV...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. TYPICAL FOG
POTENTIAL LESS THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK BECAUSE OF TURBULENT MIXING AND PREVAILING CYCLONIC FLOW.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE UPPER LOW RETROGRADES JUST
WEST OF THE REGION...INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA BUT MAINLY
SW OF THE TAF SITES INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JULY 30TH RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......54...1997
BLUEFIELD....50...1981
DANVILLE.....60...1972/81/83/2013
LEWISBURG....46...2013
LYNCHBURG....52...1997
BLACKSBURG...50...1973/81


JULY 31ST RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......49...1914
BLUEFIELD....49...1997
DANVILLE.....55...1966
LEWISBURG....48...1997
LYNCHBURG....49...1997
BLACKSBURG...44...1997

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE WEATHER RADIO AT HINTON WEST VA TRANSMITTING ON FREQUENCY
162.425 MHZ REMAINS OFF THE AIR LIKELY DUE TO PHONE LINE PROBLEMS.
RESTORATION OF SERVICE IS NOT EXPECTED BEFORE NOON ON MONDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/NF
NEAR TERM...DS/NF
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...NF/PH
CLIMATE...PH
EQUIPMENT...JH




000
FXUS61 KRNK 281409
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1009 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER DRIER CANADIAN AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC BEHIND A
COLD FRONT TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE FORECAST REGION LATE
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...IN ADDITION TO SPOTTY UPSLOPE
SHOWERS ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES. COOLER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 955 AM EDT MONDAY...

HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.
HAVE REMOVED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN PART
OF THE AREA FOR ABOUT THEN NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS. EXPECTING MORE OF A
NOON TO 100 PM INITIATION TIME FOR ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THIS
REGION. CURRENT COVERAGE HAS WANED TO ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES OVER
WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY WV. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE AND
DEW POINT TO REFLECT THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...

ASIDE FROM A FEW SPRINKLES LEFT OVER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING...ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS EXITED THE AREA FOR THE TIME
BEING. THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS ACROSS
WEST VIRGINIA AS THE PARENT SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EAST OVER EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA...AND EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO ENTER OUR SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES BY AROUND SUNRISE...PUSHING RAPIDLY EAST
THROUGH THE MORNING.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE MORNING WILL BE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS BEHIND THE FRONT AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PASSES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. STRONG WINDS WRAPPING
AROUND THE SOUTHERN END OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT
GUSTS TO MAX OUT AS HIGH AS 40 MPH AT TIMES AT ELEVATIONS OF 30OO
FEET AND UP. THE MAIN ENERGY MOVING AROUND THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA DURING MID AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT TO
SEE WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THEREAFTER.

WITH WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWESTERLY AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DISTURBANCE DURING EARLY AFTERNOON...WILL ALSO SEE SPOTTY UPSLOPE
SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOP ACROSS OUR WESTERN RIDGELINES OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. LAPSE RATES WILL
BECOME STEEP ENOUGH FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON THAT
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP INTO
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT BELIEVE THOSE WILL BE FEW AND FAR IN BETWEEN
AT BEST. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE INTO THE EVENING AS WIND
SPEEDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...BUT EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS TO LINGER
INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TODAY ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE TIME FOR DECENT HEATING
BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT CONSIDERING THE
DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND DRY DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY WINDS. EXPECT
HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE WESTERN RIDGES TO THE
UPPER 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE
LOW 50S WEST AND THE LOW 60S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT MONDAY...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROF WILL
COVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE JULY.

WITH ONLY A THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE EXPECTED BETWEEN 5-10KT
TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION WILL BE HARD TO COME BY...BUT KEPT A SMALL
CHANCE IN FAR SOUTHWEST VA AND NW NC...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF. OTHERWISE...ONLY SOME
CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL COVER THE REGION. TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE
COOLEST DAY DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE GEFS FORECASTING 850MB
TEMPS 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN VERY CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN WITH ITS HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST....SO STRAYED LITTLE FROM THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S
FORECAST IN THE MOUNTAINS TO UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE.

A WEAK LOW THAT FORMS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TUESDAY LIFTS NORTHEAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH EAST TO NOT INFLUENCE OUR
WEATHER. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 12Z (8 AM EDT) WEDNESDAY. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW LOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 40S IN SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE EAST.
THESE VALUES WILL BE CLOSE TO THE RECORDS FOR JULY 30TH. SEE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW FOR RECORD LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY.

UPPER TROF RELAXES SOME ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING 850MB TEMPS TO WARM
A COUPLE OF DEGREES VERSUS TUESDAY. STILL...TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL. THE 00Z NAM AND 21Z SREF APPEAR BULLISH ON DEVELOPING
UPSLOPE SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR IN PLACE...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO
SIT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT WITH DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY HIGHER...LOWS WILL BE A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THURSDAY MORNING...BUT STILL WELL BELOW
NORMAL AND CLOSE TO RECORD LOWS IN SOME LOCATIONS LIKE LWB.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A SURFACE HIGH THURSDAY OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN WILL SHIFT EAST
TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AT THE MID LEVELS A
PERSISTENT TROUGH IS SET UP OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN US. THURSDAY LACKS LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE SO EXPECT
THE DAY TO BE DRY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE FOR FRIDAY AND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES PIVOT ACROSS
THE REGION AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING AND TAPER OFF TO
JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING. FOCUS OF THE HIGHEST
CHANCE POPS ARE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE WILL
BE LOCATED...WITH LOWER CHANCE POPS OUT EAST.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH 850MB TEMPS
AROUND +16C. THIS WILL CORRESPOND TO SURFACE HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID
80S OUT EAST AND NEAR 80 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST ON FRIDAY THE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM N/NW TO AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION. THIS WILL WEDGE THE AREA IN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. WITH THE INCREASED LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. THIS ALONG WITH EXPECTED SCATTERED PRECIP AND 850MB
TEMPS FALLING TO +11-14C...SURFACE HIGH TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 715 AM EDT MONDAY...

A COLD FRONT IN SOUTHEAST WV EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE FORECST AREA BY 18Z. UPSLOPE IFR/MVFR CIGS IN SE
WV/FAR SW VA...INCLUDING KBLF WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO A VFR CIG BY
LATE MORNING.

THE BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN TODAY IS THE GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND. GUSTS OVER 25KTS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS...INCLUDING KROA...KBLF...AND KBCB WITH 15-25KT GUSTS
ESLEWHERE.

OTHERWISE...ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROF WILL COMBINE
WITH UPSLOPE AND INSTABILITY BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND
STEEPISH LAPSE RATES AS SEEN ON MODEL SOUNDINGS TO SQUEEZE OUT A
FEW SPRINKLES AT KLWB AND KBLF THROUGH THE DAY.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS
THE REGION. MVFR CIGS AGAIN FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES...INCLUDING KLWB...KBLF AND PERHAPS KBCB LATE
TONIGHT...ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG OVER THE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
FAVORED AREAS SUCH AT KLWB.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FOR TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WILL BRING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT LATE NIGHT FOG AT KBCB/KLWB...
ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVELS MAY STAY DRY ENOUGH FOR LESS FOG COVERAGE.

VARIABLE CIGS EXPECTED UNDER ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW THROUGHOUT THE
REST OF THE WEEK. A FEW -SHRA NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION
ACROSS EASTERN WV...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. TYPICAL FOG
POTENTIAL LESS THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK BECAUSE OF TURBULENT MIXING AND PREVAILING CYCLONIC FLOW.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE UPPER LOW RETROGRADES JUST
WEST OF THE REGION...INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA BUT MAINLY
SW OF THE TAF SITES INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JULY 30TH RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......54...1997
BLUEFIELD....50...1981
DANVILLE.....60...1972/81/83/2013
LEWISBURG....46...2013
LYNCHBURG....52...1997
BLACKSBURG...50...1973/81


JULY 31ST RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......49...1914
BLUEFIELD....49...1997
DANVILLE.....55...1966
LEWISBURG....48...1997
LYNCHBURG....49...1997
BLACKSBURG...44...1997

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE WEATHER RADIO AT HINTON WEST VA TRANSMITTING ON FREQUENCY
162.425 MHZ REMAINS OFF THE AIR LIKELY DUE TO PHONE LINE PROBLEMS.
RESTORATION OF SERVICE IS NOT EXPECTED BEFORE NOON ON MONDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/NF
NEAR TERM...DS/NF
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...NF/PH
CLIMATE...PH
EQUIPMENT...JH



000
FXUS61 KLWX 281341
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
941 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. DRIER WEATHER WILL MOVE
IN BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FOR MIDWEEK...
BRINGING COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TODAY WHILE A
SFC LOW DEEPENS AS IT TRACKS TOWARDS VT/NH/ME. A COLD FRONT IS
MOVING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC THIS MORNING AND DEWPTS ARE
DROPPING INTO THE 50S BEHIND IT. THE WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT HAS RESULTED IN WAVE CLOUDS ACROSS THE APPALACIANS. A FEW
SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ARE MIXED IN ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.

GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TODAY WITH W-NW
WINDS 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. FCST MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE MTNS TO THE LOW TO MID 80S IN
THE NRN PIEDMONT AND SRN MD.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO THE NORTH ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC RESULTING IN BKN CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON SIMILAR
TO A FALL DAY AND SCT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 66 IN VA AND INTERSTATE 50 IN MARYLAND. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE SHOWERS AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
ALOFT LEADS TO STEEP LAPSE RATES BEHIND THE FRONT. NO SVR WEATHER
IS EXPECTED.

ACTIVITY WILL WANE AROUND SUNSET TONIGHT AND CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
IN COVERAGE BY LATE TONIGHT. FCST MIN TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
WITH THE UPPER 50S WEST OF I-95 TO THE LOW TO MID 60S IN SRN MD.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
JUL IS WINDING DOWN...AND FOR THE E CST IT WL DO SO UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UNUSUALLY LARGE UPR LVL TROF. THIS WL KEEP TEMPS
BLO NRML. XPCT TO SEE CLDS BRK UP DURG EVE HRS...M CLR OVRNGT AND
DURG THE MRNG..THEN A CU FIELD DVLP DURG THE AFTN..ESPECIALLY OVR
THE MTNS AND CLOSE TO THE PA BRDR.

LOWS IN THE 50S...L60S IN THE CITIES AND ALONG THE BAY. HIGHS
75-80. AT A TIME OF THE YR WHERE HIGHS CAN REACH THE U90S (HIGH
TEMPS 7/29/2011: DCA 104..BWI 101..IAD 103...ALL RECORDS). HOPEFULLY
WE`LL ALL GET A CHC TO GET OUTSIDE AND ENJOY THE UPCOMING WX.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE BACK WEST OF
THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
RE-ESTABLISHES ITS HOLD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THE TROUGH
MOVES BACK/REDEVELOPS TO OUR WEST...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
INCREASING THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY AS WELL AS THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND
WOULD SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN GIVEN THE LONG AND
PERSISTENT TRAJECTORY OF WIND OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO RIDING ALONG
A STALLED OR SLOW-MOVING FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY. WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE FOR
SOME AFTN INSTABILITY RW TO DVLP. WINDS WL TURN TO THE NW W/ GUSTS
OVR 20 KT FM MID MRNG THRU LATE AFTN.

VFR CONDS XPCTD FOR MUCH OF THE WK AHD.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA WINDS EXPECTED TODAY AS A COLD FRONT NEARS AND CROSSES THE
WATERS. GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE ON THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE WATERS TONIGHT.

NO PROBS FORESEEN THEREAFTER THRU THU.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     540-541-543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...HAS
PREVIOUS...WOODY!/HTS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 281341
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
941 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. DRIER WEATHER WILL MOVE
IN BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FOR MIDWEEK...
BRINGING COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TODAY WHILE A
SFC LOW DEEPENS AS IT TRACKS TOWARDS VT/NH/ME. A COLD FRONT IS
MOVING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC THIS MORNING AND DEWPTS ARE
DROPPING INTO THE 50S BEHIND IT. THE WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT HAS RESULTED IN WAVE CLOUDS ACROSS THE APPALACIANS. A FEW
SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ARE MIXED IN ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.

GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TODAY WITH W-NW
WINDS 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. FCST MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE MTNS TO THE LOW TO MID 80S IN
THE NRN PIEDMONT AND SRN MD.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO THE NORTH ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC RESULTING IN BKN CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON SIMILAR
TO A FALL DAY AND SCT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 66 IN VA AND INTERSTATE 50 IN MARYLAND. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE SHOWERS AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
ALOFT LEADS TO STEEP LAPSE RATES BEHIND THE FRONT. NO SVR WEATHER
IS EXPECTED.

ACTIVITY WILL WANE AROUND SUNSET TONIGHT AND CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
IN COVERAGE BY LATE TONIGHT. FCST MIN TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
WITH THE UPPER 50S WEST OF I-95 TO THE LOW TO MID 60S IN SRN MD.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
JUL IS WINDING DOWN...AND FOR THE E CST IT WL DO SO UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UNUSUALLY LARGE UPR LVL TROF. THIS WL KEEP TEMPS
BLO NRML. XPCT TO SEE CLDS BRK UP DURG EVE HRS...M CLR OVRNGT AND
DURG THE MRNG..THEN A CU FIELD DVLP DURG THE AFTN..ESPECIALLY OVR
THE MTNS AND CLOSE TO THE PA BRDR.

LOWS IN THE 50S...L60S IN THE CITIES AND ALONG THE BAY. HIGHS
75-80. AT A TIME OF THE YR WHERE HIGHS CAN REACH THE U90S (HIGH
TEMPS 7/29/2011: DCA 104..BWI 101..IAD 103...ALL RECORDS). HOPEFULLY
WE`LL ALL GET A CHC TO GET OUTSIDE AND ENJOY THE UPCOMING WX.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE BACK WEST OF
THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
RE-ESTABLISHES ITS HOLD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THE TROUGH
MOVES BACK/REDEVELOPS TO OUR WEST...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
INCREASING THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY AS WELL AS THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND
WOULD SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN GIVEN THE LONG AND
PERSISTENT TRAJECTORY OF WIND OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO RIDING ALONG
A STALLED OR SLOW-MOVING FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY. WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE FOR
SOME AFTN INSTABILITY RW TO DVLP. WINDS WL TURN TO THE NW W/ GUSTS
OVR 20 KT FM MID MRNG THRU LATE AFTN.

VFR CONDS XPCTD FOR MUCH OF THE WK AHD.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA WINDS EXPECTED TODAY AS A COLD FRONT NEARS AND CROSSES THE
WATERS. GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE ON THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE WATERS TONIGHT.

NO PROBS FORESEEN THEREAFTER THRU THU.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     540-541-543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...HAS
PREVIOUS...WOODY!/HTS








000
FXUS61 KRNK 281123
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
723 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...BRINGING A
SHOT OF COOLER DRIER CANADIAN AIR TO THE MID ATLANTIC. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING GUSTY
WINDS TO THE FORECAST REGION LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON...IN ADDITION TO SPOTTY UPSLOPE SHOWERS ALONG THE
WESTERN RIDGES. COOLER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...

ASIDE FROM A FEW SPRINKLES LEFT OVER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING...ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS EXITED THE AREA FOR THE TIME
BEING. THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS ACROSS
WEST VIRGINIA AS THE PARENT SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EAST OVER EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA...AND EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO ENTER OUR SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES BY AROUND SUNRISE...PUSHING RAPIDLY EAST
THROUGH THE MORNING.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE MORNING WILL BE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS BEHIND THE FRONT AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PASSES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. STRONG WINDS WRAPPING
AROUND THE SOUTHERN END OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT
GUSTS TO MAX OUT AS HIGH AS 40 MPH AT TIMES AT ELEVATIONS OF 30OO
FEET AND UP. THE MAIN ENERGY MOVING AROUND THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA DURING MID AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT TO
SEE WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THEREAFTER.

WITH WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWESTERLY AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DISTURBANCE DURING EARLY AFTERNOON...WILL ALSO SEE SPOTTY UPSLOPE
SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOP ACROSS OUR WESTERN RIDGELINES OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. LAPSE RATES WILL
BECOME STEEP ENOUGH FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON THAT
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP INTO
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT BELIEVE THOSE WILL BE FEW AND FAR IN BETWEEN
AT BEST. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE INTO THE EVENING AS WIND
SPEEDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...BUT EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS TO LINGER
INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TODAY ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE TIME FOR DECENT HEATING
BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT CONSIDERING THE
DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND DRY DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY WINDS. EXPECT
HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE WESTERN RIDGES TO THE
UPPER 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE
LOW 50S WEST AND THE LOW 60S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT MONDAY...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROF WILL
COVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE JULY.

WITH ONLY A THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE EXPECTED BETWEEN 5-10KT
TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION WILL BE HARD TO COME BY...BUT KEPT A SMALL
CHANCE IN FAR SOUTHWEST VA AND NW NC...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF. OTHERWISE...ONLY SOME
CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL COVER THE REGION. TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE
COOLEST DAY DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE GEFS FORECASTING 850MB
TEMPS 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN VERY CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN WITH ITS HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST....SO STRAYED LITTLE FROM THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S
FORECAST IN THE MOUNTAINS TO UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE.

A WEAK LOW THAT FORMS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TUESDAY LIFTS NORTHEAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH EAST TO NOT INFLUENCE OUR
WEATHER. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 12Z (8 AM EDT) WEDNESDAY. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW LOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 40S IN SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE EAST.
THESE VALUES WILL BE CLOSE TO THE RECORDS FOR JULY 30TH. SEE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW FOR RECORD LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY.

UPPER TROF RELAXES SOME ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING 850MB TEMPS TO WARM
A COUPLE OF DEGREES VERSUS TUESDAY. STILL...TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL. THE 00Z NAM AND 21Z SREF APPEAR BULLISH ON DEVELOPING
UPSLOPE SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR IN PLACE...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO
SIT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT WITH DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY HIGHER...LOWS WILL BE A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THURSDAY MORNING...BUT STILL WELL BELOW
NORMAL AND CLOSE TO RECORD LOWS IN SOME LOCATIONS LIKE LWB.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A SURFACE HIGH THURSDAY OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN WILL SHIFT EAST
TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AT THE MID LEVELS A
PERSISTENT TROUGH IS SET UP OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN US. THURSDAY LACKS LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE SO EXPECT
THE DAY TO BE DRY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE FOR FRIDAY AND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES PIVOT ACROSS
THE REGION AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING AND TAPER OFF TO
JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING. FOCUS OF THE HIGHEST
CHANCE POPS ARE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE WILL
BE LOCATED...WITH LOWER CHANCE POPS OUT EAST.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH 850MB TEMPS
AROUND +16C. THIS WILL CORRESPOND TO SURFACE HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID
80S OUT EAST AND NEAR 80 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST ON FRIDAY THE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM N/NW TO AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION. THIS WILL WEDGE THE AREA IN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. WITH THE INCREASED LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. THIS ALONG WITH EXPECTED SCATTERED PRECIP AND 850MB
TEMPS FALLING TO +11-14C...SURFACE HIGH TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 715 AM EDT MONDAY...

A COLD FRONT IN SOUTHEAST WV EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE FORECST AREA BY 18Z. UPSLOPE IFR/MVFR CIGS IN SE
WV/FAR SW VA...INCLUDING KBLF WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO A VFR CIG BY
LATE MORNING.

THE BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN TODAY IS THE GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND. GUSTS OVER 25KTS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS...INCLUDING KROA...KBLF...AND KBCB WITH 15-25KT GUSTS
ESLEWHERE.

OTHERWISE...ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROF WILL COMBINE
WITH UPSLOPE AND INSTABILITY BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND
STEEPISH LAPSE RATES AS SEEN ON MODEL SOUNDINGS TO SQUEEZE OUT A
FEW SPRINKLES AT KLWB AND KBLF THROUGH THE DAY.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS
THE REGION. MVFR CIGS AGAIN FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES...INCLUDING KLWB...KBLF AND PERHAPS KBCB LATE
TONIGHT...ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG OVER THE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
FAVORED AREAS SUCH AT KLWB.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FOR TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WILL BRING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT LATE NIGHT FOG AT KBCB/KLWB...
ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVELS MAY STAY DRY ENOUGH FOR LESS FOG COVERAGE.

VARIABLE CIGS EXPECTED UNDER ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW THROUGHOUT THE
REST OF THE WEEK. A FEW -SHRA NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION
ACROSS EASTERN WV...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. TYPICAL FOG
POTENTIAL LESS THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK BECAUSE OF TURBULENT MIXING AND PREVAILING CYCLONIC FLOW.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE UPPER LOW RETROGRADES JUST
WEST OF THE REGION...INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA BUT MAINLY
SW OF THE TAF SITES INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JULY 30TH RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......54...1997
BLUEFIELD....50...1981
DANVILLE.....60...1972/81/83/2013
LEWISBURG....46...2013
LYNCHBURG....52...1997
BLACKSBURG...50...1973/81


JULY 31ST RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......49...1914
BLUEFIELD....49...1997
DANVILLE.....55...1966
LEWISBURG....48...1997
LYNCHBURG....49...1997
BLACKSBURG...44...1997

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE WEATHER RADIO AT HINTON WEST VA TRANSMITTING ON FREQUENCY
162.425 MHZ REMAINS OFF THE AIR LIKELY DUE TO PHONE LINE PROBLEMS.
RESTORATION OF SERVICE IS NOT EXPECTED BEFORE NOON ON MONDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...NF/PH
CLIMATE...PH
EQUIPMENT...JH




000
FXUS61 KRNK 281123
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
723 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...BRINGING A
SHOT OF COOLER DRIER CANADIAN AIR TO THE MID ATLANTIC. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING GUSTY
WINDS TO THE FORECAST REGION LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON...IN ADDITION TO SPOTTY UPSLOPE SHOWERS ALONG THE
WESTERN RIDGES. COOLER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...

ASIDE FROM A FEW SPRINKLES LEFT OVER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING...ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS EXITED THE AREA FOR THE TIME
BEING. THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS ACROSS
WEST VIRGINIA AS THE PARENT SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EAST OVER EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA...AND EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO ENTER OUR SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES BY AROUND SUNRISE...PUSHING RAPIDLY EAST
THROUGH THE MORNING.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE MORNING WILL BE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS BEHIND THE FRONT AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PASSES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. STRONG WINDS WRAPPING
AROUND THE SOUTHERN END OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT
GUSTS TO MAX OUT AS HIGH AS 40 MPH AT TIMES AT ELEVATIONS OF 30OO
FEET AND UP. THE MAIN ENERGY MOVING AROUND THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA DURING MID AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT TO
SEE WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THEREAFTER.

WITH WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWESTERLY AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DISTURBANCE DURING EARLY AFTERNOON...WILL ALSO SEE SPOTTY UPSLOPE
SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOP ACROSS OUR WESTERN RIDGELINES OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. LAPSE RATES WILL
BECOME STEEP ENOUGH FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON THAT
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP INTO
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT BELIEVE THOSE WILL BE FEW AND FAR IN BETWEEN
AT BEST. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE INTO THE EVENING AS WIND
SPEEDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...BUT EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS TO LINGER
INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TODAY ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE TIME FOR DECENT HEATING
BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT CONSIDERING THE
DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND DRY DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY WINDS. EXPECT
HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE WESTERN RIDGES TO THE
UPPER 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE
LOW 50S WEST AND THE LOW 60S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT MONDAY...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROF WILL
COVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE JULY.

WITH ONLY A THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE EXPECTED BETWEEN 5-10KT
TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION WILL BE HARD TO COME BY...BUT KEPT A SMALL
CHANCE IN FAR SOUTHWEST VA AND NW NC...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF. OTHERWISE...ONLY SOME
CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL COVER THE REGION. TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE
COOLEST DAY DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE GEFS FORECASTING 850MB
TEMPS 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN VERY CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN WITH ITS HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST....SO STRAYED LITTLE FROM THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S
FORECAST IN THE MOUNTAINS TO UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE.

A WEAK LOW THAT FORMS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TUESDAY LIFTS NORTHEAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH EAST TO NOT INFLUENCE OUR
WEATHER. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 12Z (8 AM EDT) WEDNESDAY. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW LOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 40S IN SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE EAST.
THESE VALUES WILL BE CLOSE TO THE RECORDS FOR JULY 30TH. SEE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW FOR RECORD LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY.

UPPER TROF RELAXES SOME ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING 850MB TEMPS TO WARM
A COUPLE OF DEGREES VERSUS TUESDAY. STILL...TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL. THE 00Z NAM AND 21Z SREF APPEAR BULLISH ON DEVELOPING
UPSLOPE SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR IN PLACE...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO
SIT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT WITH DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY HIGHER...LOWS WILL BE A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THURSDAY MORNING...BUT STILL WELL BELOW
NORMAL AND CLOSE TO RECORD LOWS IN SOME LOCATIONS LIKE LWB.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A SURFACE HIGH THURSDAY OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN WILL SHIFT EAST
TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AT THE MID LEVELS A
PERSISTENT TROUGH IS SET UP OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN US. THURSDAY LACKS LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE SO EXPECT
THE DAY TO BE DRY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE FOR FRIDAY AND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES PIVOT ACROSS
THE REGION AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING AND TAPER OFF TO
JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING. FOCUS OF THE HIGHEST
CHANCE POPS ARE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE WILL
BE LOCATED...WITH LOWER CHANCE POPS OUT EAST.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH 850MB TEMPS
AROUND +16C. THIS WILL CORRESPOND TO SURFACE HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID
80S OUT EAST AND NEAR 80 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST ON FRIDAY THE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM N/NW TO AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION. THIS WILL WEDGE THE AREA IN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. WITH THE INCREASED LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. THIS ALONG WITH EXPECTED SCATTERED PRECIP AND 850MB
TEMPS FALLING TO +11-14C...SURFACE HIGH TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 715 AM EDT MONDAY...

A COLD FRONT IN SOUTHEAST WV EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE FORECST AREA BY 18Z. UPSLOPE IFR/MVFR CIGS IN SE
WV/FAR SW VA...INCLUDING KBLF WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO A VFR CIG BY
LATE MORNING.

THE BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN TODAY IS THE GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND. GUSTS OVER 25KTS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS...INCLUDING KROA...KBLF...AND KBCB WITH 15-25KT GUSTS
ESLEWHERE.

OTHERWISE...ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROF WILL COMBINE
WITH UPSLOPE AND INSTABILITY BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND
STEEPISH LAPSE RATES AS SEEN ON MODEL SOUNDINGS TO SQUEEZE OUT A
FEW SPRINKLES AT KLWB AND KBLF THROUGH THE DAY.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS
THE REGION. MVFR CIGS AGAIN FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES...INCLUDING KLWB...KBLF AND PERHAPS KBCB LATE
TONIGHT...ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG OVER THE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
FAVORED AREAS SUCH AT KLWB.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FOR TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WILL BRING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT LATE NIGHT FOG AT KBCB/KLWB...
ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVELS MAY STAY DRY ENOUGH FOR LESS FOG COVERAGE.

VARIABLE CIGS EXPECTED UNDER ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW THROUGHOUT THE
REST OF THE WEEK. A FEW -SHRA NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION
ACROSS EASTERN WV...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. TYPICAL FOG
POTENTIAL LESS THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK BECAUSE OF TURBULENT MIXING AND PREVAILING CYCLONIC FLOW.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE UPPER LOW RETROGRADES JUST
WEST OF THE REGION...INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA BUT MAINLY
SW OF THE TAF SITES INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JULY 30TH RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......54...1997
BLUEFIELD....50...1981
DANVILLE.....60...1972/81/83/2013
LEWISBURG....46...2013
LYNCHBURG....52...1997
BLACKSBURG...50...1973/81


JULY 31ST RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......49...1914
BLUEFIELD....49...1997
DANVILLE.....55...1966
LEWISBURG....48...1997
LYNCHBURG....49...1997
BLACKSBURG...44...1997

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE WEATHER RADIO AT HINTON WEST VA TRANSMITTING ON FREQUENCY
162.425 MHZ REMAINS OFF THE AIR LIKELY DUE TO PHONE LINE PROBLEMS.
RESTORATION OF SERVICE IS NOT EXPECTED BEFORE NOON ON MONDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...NF/PH
CLIMATE...PH
EQUIPMENT...JH




000
FXUS61 KRNK 281123
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
723 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...BRINGING A
SHOT OF COOLER DRIER CANADIAN AIR TO THE MID ATLANTIC. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING GUSTY
WINDS TO THE FORECAST REGION LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON...IN ADDITION TO SPOTTY UPSLOPE SHOWERS ALONG THE
WESTERN RIDGES. COOLER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...

ASIDE FROM A FEW SPRINKLES LEFT OVER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING...ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS EXITED THE AREA FOR THE TIME
BEING. THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS ACROSS
WEST VIRGINIA AS THE PARENT SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EAST OVER EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA...AND EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO ENTER OUR SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES BY AROUND SUNRISE...PUSHING RAPIDLY EAST
THROUGH THE MORNING.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE MORNING WILL BE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS BEHIND THE FRONT AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PASSES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. STRONG WINDS WRAPPING
AROUND THE SOUTHERN END OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT
GUSTS TO MAX OUT AS HIGH AS 40 MPH AT TIMES AT ELEVATIONS OF 30OO
FEET AND UP. THE MAIN ENERGY MOVING AROUND THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA DURING MID AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT TO
SEE WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THEREAFTER.

WITH WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWESTERLY AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DISTURBANCE DURING EARLY AFTERNOON...WILL ALSO SEE SPOTTY UPSLOPE
SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOP ACROSS OUR WESTERN RIDGELINES OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. LAPSE RATES WILL
BECOME STEEP ENOUGH FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON THAT
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP INTO
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT BELIEVE THOSE WILL BE FEW AND FAR IN BETWEEN
AT BEST. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE INTO THE EVENING AS WIND
SPEEDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...BUT EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS TO LINGER
INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TODAY ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE TIME FOR DECENT HEATING
BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT CONSIDERING THE
DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND DRY DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY WINDS. EXPECT
HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE WESTERN RIDGES TO THE
UPPER 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE
LOW 50S WEST AND THE LOW 60S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT MONDAY...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROF WILL
COVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE JULY.

WITH ONLY A THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE EXPECTED BETWEEN 5-10KT
TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION WILL BE HARD TO COME BY...BUT KEPT A SMALL
CHANCE IN FAR SOUTHWEST VA AND NW NC...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF. OTHERWISE...ONLY SOME
CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL COVER THE REGION. TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE
COOLEST DAY DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE GEFS FORECASTING 850MB
TEMPS 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN VERY CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN WITH ITS HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST....SO STRAYED LITTLE FROM THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S
FORECAST IN THE MOUNTAINS TO UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE.

A WEAK LOW THAT FORMS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TUESDAY LIFTS NORTHEAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH EAST TO NOT INFLUENCE OUR
WEATHER. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 12Z (8 AM EDT) WEDNESDAY. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW LOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 40S IN SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE EAST.
THESE VALUES WILL BE CLOSE TO THE RECORDS FOR JULY 30TH. SEE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW FOR RECORD LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY.

UPPER TROF RELAXES SOME ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING 850MB TEMPS TO WARM
A COUPLE OF DEGREES VERSUS TUESDAY. STILL...TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL. THE 00Z NAM AND 21Z SREF APPEAR BULLISH ON DEVELOPING
UPSLOPE SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR IN PLACE...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO
SIT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT WITH DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY HIGHER...LOWS WILL BE A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THURSDAY MORNING...BUT STILL WELL BELOW
NORMAL AND CLOSE TO RECORD LOWS IN SOME LOCATIONS LIKE LWB.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A SURFACE HIGH THURSDAY OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN WILL SHIFT EAST
TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AT THE MID LEVELS A
PERSISTENT TROUGH IS SET UP OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN US. THURSDAY LACKS LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE SO EXPECT
THE DAY TO BE DRY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE FOR FRIDAY AND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES PIVOT ACROSS
THE REGION AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING AND TAPER OFF TO
JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING. FOCUS OF THE HIGHEST
CHANCE POPS ARE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE WILL
BE LOCATED...WITH LOWER CHANCE POPS OUT EAST.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH 850MB TEMPS
AROUND +16C. THIS WILL CORRESPOND TO SURFACE HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID
80S OUT EAST AND NEAR 80 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST ON FRIDAY THE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM N/NW TO AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION. THIS WILL WEDGE THE AREA IN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. WITH THE INCREASED LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. THIS ALONG WITH EXPECTED SCATTERED PRECIP AND 850MB
TEMPS FALLING TO +11-14C...SURFACE HIGH TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 715 AM EDT MONDAY...

A COLD FRONT IN SOUTHEAST WV EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE FORECST AREA BY 18Z. UPSLOPE IFR/MVFR CIGS IN SE
WV/FAR SW VA...INCLUDING KBLF WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO A VFR CIG BY
LATE MORNING.

THE BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN TODAY IS THE GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND. GUSTS OVER 25KTS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS...INCLUDING KROA...KBLF...AND KBCB WITH 15-25KT GUSTS
ESLEWHERE.

OTHERWISE...ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROF WILL COMBINE
WITH UPSLOPE AND INSTABILITY BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND
STEEPISH LAPSE RATES AS SEEN ON MODEL SOUNDINGS TO SQUEEZE OUT A
FEW SPRINKLES AT KLWB AND KBLF THROUGH THE DAY.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS
THE REGION. MVFR CIGS AGAIN FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES...INCLUDING KLWB...KBLF AND PERHAPS KBCB LATE
TONIGHT...ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG OVER THE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
FAVORED AREAS SUCH AT KLWB.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FOR TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WILL BRING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT LATE NIGHT FOG AT KBCB/KLWB...
ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVELS MAY STAY DRY ENOUGH FOR LESS FOG COVERAGE.

VARIABLE CIGS EXPECTED UNDER ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW THROUGHOUT THE
REST OF THE WEEK. A FEW -SHRA NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION
ACROSS EASTERN WV...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. TYPICAL FOG
POTENTIAL LESS THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK BECAUSE OF TURBULENT MIXING AND PREVAILING CYCLONIC FLOW.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE UPPER LOW RETROGRADES JUST
WEST OF THE REGION...INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA BUT MAINLY
SW OF THE TAF SITES INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JULY 30TH RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......54...1997
BLUEFIELD....50...1981
DANVILLE.....60...1972/81/83/2013
LEWISBURG....46...2013
LYNCHBURG....52...1997
BLACKSBURG...50...1973/81


JULY 31ST RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......49...1914
BLUEFIELD....49...1997
DANVILLE.....55...1966
LEWISBURG....48...1997
LYNCHBURG....49...1997
BLACKSBURG...44...1997

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE WEATHER RADIO AT HINTON WEST VA TRANSMITTING ON FREQUENCY
162.425 MHZ REMAINS OFF THE AIR LIKELY DUE TO PHONE LINE PROBLEMS.
RESTORATION OF SERVICE IS NOT EXPECTED BEFORE NOON ON MONDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...NF/PH
CLIMATE...PH
EQUIPMENT...JH




000
FXUS61 KRNK 281123
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
723 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...BRINGING A
SHOT OF COOLER DRIER CANADIAN AIR TO THE MID ATLANTIC. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING GUSTY
WINDS TO THE FORECAST REGION LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON...IN ADDITION TO SPOTTY UPSLOPE SHOWERS ALONG THE
WESTERN RIDGES. COOLER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...

ASIDE FROM A FEW SPRINKLES LEFT OVER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING...ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS EXITED THE AREA FOR THE TIME
BEING. THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS ACROSS
WEST VIRGINIA AS THE PARENT SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EAST OVER EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA...AND EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO ENTER OUR SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES BY AROUND SUNRISE...PUSHING RAPIDLY EAST
THROUGH THE MORNING.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE MORNING WILL BE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS BEHIND THE FRONT AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PASSES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. STRONG WINDS WRAPPING
AROUND THE SOUTHERN END OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT
GUSTS TO MAX OUT AS HIGH AS 40 MPH AT TIMES AT ELEVATIONS OF 30OO
FEET AND UP. THE MAIN ENERGY MOVING AROUND THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA DURING MID AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT TO
SEE WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THEREAFTER.

WITH WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWESTERLY AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DISTURBANCE DURING EARLY AFTERNOON...WILL ALSO SEE SPOTTY UPSLOPE
SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOP ACROSS OUR WESTERN RIDGELINES OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. LAPSE RATES WILL
BECOME STEEP ENOUGH FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON THAT
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP INTO
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT BELIEVE THOSE WILL BE FEW AND FAR IN BETWEEN
AT BEST. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE INTO THE EVENING AS WIND
SPEEDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...BUT EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS TO LINGER
INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TODAY ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE TIME FOR DECENT HEATING
BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT CONSIDERING THE
DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND DRY DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY WINDS. EXPECT
HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE WESTERN RIDGES TO THE
UPPER 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE
LOW 50S WEST AND THE LOW 60S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT MONDAY...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROF WILL
COVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE JULY.

WITH ONLY A THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE EXPECTED BETWEEN 5-10KT
TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION WILL BE HARD TO COME BY...BUT KEPT A SMALL
CHANCE IN FAR SOUTHWEST VA AND NW NC...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF. OTHERWISE...ONLY SOME
CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL COVER THE REGION. TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE
COOLEST DAY DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE GEFS FORECASTING 850MB
TEMPS 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN VERY CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN WITH ITS HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST....SO STRAYED LITTLE FROM THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S
FORECAST IN THE MOUNTAINS TO UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE.

A WEAK LOW THAT FORMS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TUESDAY LIFTS NORTHEAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH EAST TO NOT INFLUENCE OUR
WEATHER. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 12Z (8 AM EDT) WEDNESDAY. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW LOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 40S IN SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE EAST.
THESE VALUES WILL BE CLOSE TO THE RECORDS FOR JULY 30TH. SEE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW FOR RECORD LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY.

UPPER TROF RELAXES SOME ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING 850MB TEMPS TO WARM
A COUPLE OF DEGREES VERSUS TUESDAY. STILL...TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL. THE 00Z NAM AND 21Z SREF APPEAR BULLISH ON DEVELOPING
UPSLOPE SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR IN PLACE...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO
SIT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT WITH DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY HIGHER...LOWS WILL BE A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THURSDAY MORNING...BUT STILL WELL BELOW
NORMAL AND CLOSE TO RECORD LOWS IN SOME LOCATIONS LIKE LWB.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A SURFACE HIGH THURSDAY OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN WILL SHIFT EAST
TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AT THE MID LEVELS A
PERSISTENT TROUGH IS SET UP OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN US. THURSDAY LACKS LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE SO EXPECT
THE DAY TO BE DRY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE FOR FRIDAY AND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES PIVOT ACROSS
THE REGION AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING AND TAPER OFF TO
JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING. FOCUS OF THE HIGHEST
CHANCE POPS ARE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE WILL
BE LOCATED...WITH LOWER CHANCE POPS OUT EAST.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH 850MB TEMPS
AROUND +16C. THIS WILL CORRESPOND TO SURFACE HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID
80S OUT EAST AND NEAR 80 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST ON FRIDAY THE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM N/NW TO AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION. THIS WILL WEDGE THE AREA IN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. WITH THE INCREASED LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. THIS ALONG WITH EXPECTED SCATTERED PRECIP AND 850MB
TEMPS FALLING TO +11-14C...SURFACE HIGH TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 715 AM EDT MONDAY...

A COLD FRONT IN SOUTHEAST WV EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE FORECST AREA BY 18Z. UPSLOPE IFR/MVFR CIGS IN SE
WV/FAR SW VA...INCLUDING KBLF WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO A VFR CIG BY
LATE MORNING.

THE BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN TODAY IS THE GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND. GUSTS OVER 25KTS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS...INCLUDING KROA...KBLF...AND KBCB WITH 15-25KT GUSTS
ESLEWHERE.

OTHERWISE...ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROF WILL COMBINE
WITH UPSLOPE AND INSTABILITY BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND
STEEPISH LAPSE RATES AS SEEN ON MODEL SOUNDINGS TO SQUEEZE OUT A
FEW SPRINKLES AT KLWB AND KBLF THROUGH THE DAY.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS
THE REGION. MVFR CIGS AGAIN FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES...INCLUDING KLWB...KBLF AND PERHAPS KBCB LATE
TONIGHT...ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG OVER THE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
FAVORED AREAS SUCH AT KLWB.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FOR TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WILL BRING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT LATE NIGHT FOG AT KBCB/KLWB...
ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVELS MAY STAY DRY ENOUGH FOR LESS FOG COVERAGE.

VARIABLE CIGS EXPECTED UNDER ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW THROUGHOUT THE
REST OF THE WEEK. A FEW -SHRA NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION
ACROSS EASTERN WV...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. TYPICAL FOG
POTENTIAL LESS THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK BECAUSE OF TURBULENT MIXING AND PREVAILING CYCLONIC FLOW.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE UPPER LOW RETROGRADES JUST
WEST OF THE REGION...INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA BUT MAINLY
SW OF THE TAF SITES INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JULY 30TH RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......54...1997
BLUEFIELD....50...1981
DANVILLE.....60...1972/81/83/2013
LEWISBURG....46...2013
LYNCHBURG....52...1997
BLACKSBURG...50...1973/81


JULY 31ST RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......49...1914
BLUEFIELD....49...1997
DANVILLE.....55...1966
LEWISBURG....48...1997
LYNCHBURG....49...1997
BLACKSBURG...44...1997

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE WEATHER RADIO AT HINTON WEST VA TRANSMITTING ON FREQUENCY
162.425 MHZ REMAINS OFF THE AIR LIKELY DUE TO PHONE LINE PROBLEMS.
RESTORATION OF SERVICE IS NOT EXPECTED BEFORE NOON ON MONDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...NF/PH
CLIMATE...PH
EQUIPMENT...JH




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281049
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
649 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TODAY...THEN STALLS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING TO KEEP VERY LIGHT SPRINKLES IN NE NC
AND EXTREME SE VA FROM THE CHOWAN RIVER EWD. CEILINGS ARE PRETTY
HIGH THOUGH SO ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE NON-EXISTENT. OTHERWISE...THE
REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR A DRY AND BREEZY DAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SFC COLD FRONT IS FINALLY APPROACHING THE WV/VA BORDER AS THE
REGION SITS WITHIN A SPLIT FLOW WITH BEST DYNAMICS FOR ONGOING
SHOWERS/STORMS STAYING WELL TO THE NORTH AND ALSO WELL TO THE
SOUTHWEST. IN ADDITION...CLOUD TOP WARMING HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES ACROSS CNTRL VA THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
AKQ VAD WIND PROFILES CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG WLY WINDS FROM 900
MB ON UP...WHICH IS CAUSING DOWNSLOPE DRYING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
WAKEFIELD CWA. THEREFORE PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS MOVING TWD THE
PIEDMONT AND FAR NRN COUNTIES HAVE ALL BUT DISAPPEARED AS OF 315
AM THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY REDEVELOP OVER FAR SE
VA/NE NC THIS AFTN AS THE FRONT MAKES IT TO THE COAST AND
INTERACTS WITH SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES AND THE MARINE BOUNDARY
LAYER...PRIMARILY 15-20 PERCENT WITH CHANCE WORDING RIGHT ALONG
ALBEMARLE SOUND.

A WLY 80-90 KT JET STREAK NOSING INTO CNTRL VA TODAY WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SUBSIDENCE OF MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW
DOWNSLOPE DRYING TO ENDURE AND RESULT IN BREEZY WEST WINDS AROUND
20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH BY THIS AFTN. THE WELL-MIXED
ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE NICELY WHILE DRIVING
DEWPOINTS DOWN DRAMATICALLY (UPPER 50S NW TO LOWER 60S SE)...AS
COMPARED TO THE PAST WEEK OR SO. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS AROUND 90
(UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES) UNDER MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE COAST THIS EVENING. SINCE MOST
SHOWERS HAVE OCCURRED WELL OUT AHEAD OF IT...ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTN SHOULD COME TO AN END BY SUNRISE OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. A COOLER AND MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS
AHEAD WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S NW TO UPPER 60S SE AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
LIGHT NORTH WINDS DEVELOP BY TUESDAY AND WEAK CAA IS ANTICIPATED.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED AFTN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG CHES
BAY INTO FAR SE VA/NE NC AS THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A WEAK SFC LOW
LINGERING ALONG THE NOW STALLED CAROLINA COASTAL FRONT. POPS ARE
CAPPED FROM 15-20 PERCENT AT BEST. TEMPS WILL FEEL COOL AND
COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER
70S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S INLAND/MID-UPPER 60S AT IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION WED/WED NIGHT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW-MID 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF OVR THE MID ATLC REGION WED NGT...WILL
RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND DEEPEN THU THRU SUN.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING OFF THE MID ATLC CST WED NGT INTO
FRI...WILL DRIFT BACK TWD THE CST LATE FRI THRU SUN. FOR NOW...WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR WED NGT INTO FRI...THEN INCREASE TO SLGT CHC
OR CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT THRU SUN. STILL FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WED NGT
AND THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY/LO LVL MOIST RETURNS
FOR FRI THRU SUN. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID
80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S
THU MORNG...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI MORNG...RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT
MORNG...AND RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SUN MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DP LYRD WSW FLO OVR THE MDATLC RGN HAS RESULTED IN ANY CONVECTION
EXITING THE MTNS OVRNGT TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES E TWD THE CSTL
PLAIN. NOT RULING OUT ISOLD SHRA/TSTM THROUGH EARLY/MID
MRNG...MNLY INVOF SE VA/NE NC...(MAYBE AGN LT AFTN/EARLY EVE FAR
SE VA/CSTL NE NC)...THOUGH PCPN CHCS LWRG. VFR CONDS XPCD THROUGH
TDA...GUSTY W WNDS TO ABT 25 KT W/ LIMITED CLDNS. SFC CDFNT TO BE
OFF THE CST BY TNGT RESULTING IN WIND SHIFT TO NNW FOR
TNGT/TUE...ALG W/ ONLY SCT CLDNS (CONTD VFR CONDS).

DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST MIDWEEK. SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG IS PSBL
NR SUNRISE BUT WIDESPREAD IFR NOT XPCD AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A CDFNT PUSHES ACROSS THE MID ATLC WTRS BY LT THIS
AFTN/EVE...THEN WELL E OFF THE CST BY LATE TNGT/EARLY TUE. SURGE
IN SPEEDS ATTM W/ WSW WNDS...RESULTING IN LO END SCA FOR THE
BAY/PORTION OF RIVERS. WNDS (BECOME) W TDA...XPCG SPEEDS TO WANE
THIS AFTN/EVE...THEN BECOME NW AND N TNGT INTO TUE MRNG. VRB
WINDS AOB 10 KT XCPD WED THRU THU.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB









000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281049
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
649 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TODAY...THEN STALLS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING TO KEEP VERY LIGHT SPRINKLES IN NE NC
AND EXTREME SE VA FROM THE CHOWAN RIVER EWD. CEILINGS ARE PRETTY
HIGH THOUGH SO ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE NON-EXISTENT. OTHERWISE...THE
REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR A DRY AND BREEZY DAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SFC COLD FRONT IS FINALLY APPROACHING THE WV/VA BORDER AS THE
REGION SITS WITHIN A SPLIT FLOW WITH BEST DYNAMICS FOR ONGOING
SHOWERS/STORMS STAYING WELL TO THE NORTH AND ALSO WELL TO THE
SOUTHWEST. IN ADDITION...CLOUD TOP WARMING HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES ACROSS CNTRL VA THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
AKQ VAD WIND PROFILES CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG WLY WINDS FROM 900
MB ON UP...WHICH IS CAUSING DOWNSLOPE DRYING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
WAKEFIELD CWA. THEREFORE PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS MOVING TWD THE
PIEDMONT AND FAR NRN COUNTIES HAVE ALL BUT DISAPPEARED AS OF 315
AM THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY REDEVELOP OVER FAR SE
VA/NE NC THIS AFTN AS THE FRONT MAKES IT TO THE COAST AND
INTERACTS WITH SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES AND THE MARINE BOUNDARY
LAYER...PRIMARILY 15-20 PERCENT WITH CHANCE WORDING RIGHT ALONG
ALBEMARLE SOUND.

A WLY 80-90 KT JET STREAK NOSING INTO CNTRL VA TODAY WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SUBSIDENCE OF MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW
DOWNSLOPE DRYING TO ENDURE AND RESULT IN BREEZY WEST WINDS AROUND
20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH BY THIS AFTN. THE WELL-MIXED
ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE NICELY WHILE DRIVING
DEWPOINTS DOWN DRAMATICALLY (UPPER 50S NW TO LOWER 60S SE)...AS
COMPARED TO THE PAST WEEK OR SO. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS AROUND 90
(UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES) UNDER MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE COAST THIS EVENING. SINCE MOST
SHOWERS HAVE OCCURRED WELL OUT AHEAD OF IT...ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTN SHOULD COME TO AN END BY SUNRISE OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. A COOLER AND MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS
AHEAD WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S NW TO UPPER 60S SE AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
LIGHT NORTH WINDS DEVELOP BY TUESDAY AND WEAK CAA IS ANTICIPATED.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED AFTN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG CHES
BAY INTO FAR SE VA/NE NC AS THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A WEAK SFC LOW
LINGERING ALONG THE NOW STALLED CAROLINA COASTAL FRONT. POPS ARE
CAPPED FROM 15-20 PERCENT AT BEST. TEMPS WILL FEEL COOL AND
COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER
70S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S INLAND/MID-UPPER 60S AT IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION WED/WED NIGHT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW-MID 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF OVR THE MID ATLC REGION WED NGT...WILL
RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND DEEPEN THU THRU SUN.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING OFF THE MID ATLC CST WED NGT INTO
FRI...WILL DRIFT BACK TWD THE CST LATE FRI THRU SUN. FOR NOW...WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR WED NGT INTO FRI...THEN INCREASE TO SLGT CHC
OR CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT THRU SUN. STILL FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WED NGT
AND THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY/LO LVL MOIST RETURNS
FOR FRI THRU SUN. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID
80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S
THU MORNG...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI MORNG...RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT
MORNG...AND RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SUN MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DP LYRD WSW FLO OVR THE MDATLC RGN HAS RESULTED IN ANY CONVECTION
EXITING THE MTNS OVRNGT TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES E TWD THE CSTL
PLAIN. NOT RULING OUT ISOLD SHRA/TSTM THROUGH EARLY/MID
MRNG...MNLY INVOF SE VA/NE NC...(MAYBE AGN LT AFTN/EARLY EVE FAR
SE VA/CSTL NE NC)...THOUGH PCPN CHCS LWRG. VFR CONDS XPCD THROUGH
TDA...GUSTY W WNDS TO ABT 25 KT W/ LIMITED CLDNS. SFC CDFNT TO BE
OFF THE CST BY TNGT RESULTING IN WIND SHIFT TO NNW FOR
TNGT/TUE...ALG W/ ONLY SCT CLDNS (CONTD VFR CONDS).

DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST MIDWEEK. SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG IS PSBL
NR SUNRISE BUT WIDESPREAD IFR NOT XPCD AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A CDFNT PUSHES ACROSS THE MID ATLC WTRS BY LT THIS
AFTN/EVE...THEN WELL E OFF THE CST BY LATE TNGT/EARLY TUE. SURGE
IN SPEEDS ATTM W/ WSW WNDS...RESULTING IN LO END SCA FOR THE
BAY/PORTION OF RIVERS. WNDS (BECOME) W TDA...XPCG SPEEDS TO WANE
THIS AFTN/EVE...THEN BECOME NW AND N TNGT INTO TUE MRNG. VRB
WINDS AOB 10 KT XCPD WED THRU THU.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB









000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281049
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
649 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TODAY...THEN STALLS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING TO KEEP VERY LIGHT SPRINKLES IN NE NC
AND EXTREME SE VA FROM THE CHOWAN RIVER EWD. CEILINGS ARE PRETTY
HIGH THOUGH SO ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE NON-EXISTENT. OTHERWISE...THE
REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR A DRY AND BREEZY DAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SFC COLD FRONT IS FINALLY APPROACHING THE WV/VA BORDER AS THE
REGION SITS WITHIN A SPLIT FLOW WITH BEST DYNAMICS FOR ONGOING
SHOWERS/STORMS STAYING WELL TO THE NORTH AND ALSO WELL TO THE
SOUTHWEST. IN ADDITION...CLOUD TOP WARMING HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES ACROSS CNTRL VA THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
AKQ VAD WIND PROFILES CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG WLY WINDS FROM 900
MB ON UP...WHICH IS CAUSING DOWNSLOPE DRYING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
WAKEFIELD CWA. THEREFORE PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS MOVING TWD THE
PIEDMONT AND FAR NRN COUNTIES HAVE ALL BUT DISAPPEARED AS OF 315
AM THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY REDEVELOP OVER FAR SE
VA/NE NC THIS AFTN AS THE FRONT MAKES IT TO THE COAST AND
INTERACTS WITH SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES AND THE MARINE BOUNDARY
LAYER...PRIMARILY 15-20 PERCENT WITH CHANCE WORDING RIGHT ALONG
ALBEMARLE SOUND.

A WLY 80-90 KT JET STREAK NOSING INTO CNTRL VA TODAY WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SUBSIDENCE OF MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW
DOWNSLOPE DRYING TO ENDURE AND RESULT IN BREEZY WEST WINDS AROUND
20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH BY THIS AFTN. THE WELL-MIXED
ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE NICELY WHILE DRIVING
DEWPOINTS DOWN DRAMATICALLY (UPPER 50S NW TO LOWER 60S SE)...AS
COMPARED TO THE PAST WEEK OR SO. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS AROUND 90
(UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES) UNDER MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE COAST THIS EVENING. SINCE MOST
SHOWERS HAVE OCCURRED WELL OUT AHEAD OF IT...ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTN SHOULD COME TO AN END BY SUNRISE OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. A COOLER AND MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS
AHEAD WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S NW TO UPPER 60S SE AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
LIGHT NORTH WINDS DEVELOP BY TUESDAY AND WEAK CAA IS ANTICIPATED.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED AFTN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG CHES
BAY INTO FAR SE VA/NE NC AS THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A WEAK SFC LOW
LINGERING ALONG THE NOW STALLED CAROLINA COASTAL FRONT. POPS ARE
CAPPED FROM 15-20 PERCENT AT BEST. TEMPS WILL FEEL COOL AND
COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER
70S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S INLAND/MID-UPPER 60S AT IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION WED/WED NIGHT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW-MID 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF OVR THE MID ATLC REGION WED NGT...WILL
RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND DEEPEN THU THRU SUN.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING OFF THE MID ATLC CST WED NGT INTO
FRI...WILL DRIFT BACK TWD THE CST LATE FRI THRU SUN. FOR NOW...WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR WED NGT INTO FRI...THEN INCREASE TO SLGT CHC
OR CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT THRU SUN. STILL FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WED NGT
AND THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY/LO LVL MOIST RETURNS
FOR FRI THRU SUN. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID
80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S
THU MORNG...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI MORNG...RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT
MORNG...AND RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SUN MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DP LYRD WSW FLO OVR THE MDATLC RGN HAS RESULTED IN ANY CONVECTION
EXITING THE MTNS OVRNGT TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES E TWD THE CSTL
PLAIN. NOT RULING OUT ISOLD SHRA/TSTM THROUGH EARLY/MID
MRNG...MNLY INVOF SE VA/NE NC...(MAYBE AGN LT AFTN/EARLY EVE FAR
SE VA/CSTL NE NC)...THOUGH PCPN CHCS LWRG. VFR CONDS XPCD THROUGH
TDA...GUSTY W WNDS TO ABT 25 KT W/ LIMITED CLDNS. SFC CDFNT TO BE
OFF THE CST BY TNGT RESULTING IN WIND SHIFT TO NNW FOR
TNGT/TUE...ALG W/ ONLY SCT CLDNS (CONTD VFR CONDS).

DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST MIDWEEK. SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG IS PSBL
NR SUNRISE BUT WIDESPREAD IFR NOT XPCD AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A CDFNT PUSHES ACROSS THE MID ATLC WTRS BY LT THIS
AFTN/EVE...THEN WELL E OFF THE CST BY LATE TNGT/EARLY TUE. SURGE
IN SPEEDS ATTM W/ WSW WNDS...RESULTING IN LO END SCA FOR THE
BAY/PORTION OF RIVERS. WNDS (BECOME) W TDA...XPCG SPEEDS TO WANE
THIS AFTN/EVE...THEN BECOME NW AND N TNGT INTO TUE MRNG. VRB
WINDS AOB 10 KT XCPD WED THRU THU.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB









000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281049
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
649 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TODAY...THEN STALLS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING TO KEEP VERY LIGHT SPRINKLES IN NE NC
AND EXTREME SE VA FROM THE CHOWAN RIVER EWD. CEILINGS ARE PRETTY
HIGH THOUGH SO ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE NON-EXISTENT. OTHERWISE...THE
REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR A DRY AND BREEZY DAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SFC COLD FRONT IS FINALLY APPROACHING THE WV/VA BORDER AS THE
REGION SITS WITHIN A SPLIT FLOW WITH BEST DYNAMICS FOR ONGOING
SHOWERS/STORMS STAYING WELL TO THE NORTH AND ALSO WELL TO THE
SOUTHWEST. IN ADDITION...CLOUD TOP WARMING HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES ACROSS CNTRL VA THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
AKQ VAD WIND PROFILES CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG WLY WINDS FROM 900
MB ON UP...WHICH IS CAUSING DOWNSLOPE DRYING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
WAKEFIELD CWA. THEREFORE PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS MOVING TWD THE
PIEDMONT AND FAR NRN COUNTIES HAVE ALL BUT DISAPPEARED AS OF 315
AM THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY REDEVELOP OVER FAR SE
VA/NE NC THIS AFTN AS THE FRONT MAKES IT TO THE COAST AND
INTERACTS WITH SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES AND THE MARINE BOUNDARY
LAYER...PRIMARILY 15-20 PERCENT WITH CHANCE WORDING RIGHT ALONG
ALBEMARLE SOUND.

A WLY 80-90 KT JET STREAK NOSING INTO CNTRL VA TODAY WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SUBSIDENCE OF MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW
DOWNSLOPE DRYING TO ENDURE AND RESULT IN BREEZY WEST WINDS AROUND
20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH BY THIS AFTN. THE WELL-MIXED
ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE NICELY WHILE DRIVING
DEWPOINTS DOWN DRAMATICALLY (UPPER 50S NW TO LOWER 60S SE)...AS
COMPARED TO THE PAST WEEK OR SO. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS AROUND 90
(UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES) UNDER MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE COAST THIS EVENING. SINCE MOST
SHOWERS HAVE OCCURRED WELL OUT AHEAD OF IT...ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTN SHOULD COME TO AN END BY SUNRISE OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. A COOLER AND MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS
AHEAD WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S NW TO UPPER 60S SE AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
LIGHT NORTH WINDS DEVELOP BY TUESDAY AND WEAK CAA IS ANTICIPATED.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED AFTN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG CHES
BAY INTO FAR SE VA/NE NC AS THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A WEAK SFC LOW
LINGERING ALONG THE NOW STALLED CAROLINA COASTAL FRONT. POPS ARE
CAPPED FROM 15-20 PERCENT AT BEST. TEMPS WILL FEEL COOL AND
COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER
70S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S INLAND/MID-UPPER 60S AT IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION WED/WED NIGHT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW-MID 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF OVR THE MID ATLC REGION WED NGT...WILL
RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND DEEPEN THU THRU SUN.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING OFF THE MID ATLC CST WED NGT INTO
FRI...WILL DRIFT BACK TWD THE CST LATE FRI THRU SUN. FOR NOW...WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR WED NGT INTO FRI...THEN INCREASE TO SLGT CHC
OR CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT THRU SUN. STILL FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WED NGT
AND THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY/LO LVL MOIST RETURNS
FOR FRI THRU SUN. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID
80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S
THU MORNG...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI MORNG...RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT
MORNG...AND RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SUN MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DP LYRD WSW FLO OVR THE MDATLC RGN HAS RESULTED IN ANY CONVECTION
EXITING THE MTNS OVRNGT TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES E TWD THE CSTL
PLAIN. NOT RULING OUT ISOLD SHRA/TSTM THROUGH EARLY/MID
MRNG...MNLY INVOF SE VA/NE NC...(MAYBE AGN LT AFTN/EARLY EVE FAR
SE VA/CSTL NE NC)...THOUGH PCPN CHCS LWRG. VFR CONDS XPCD THROUGH
TDA...GUSTY W WNDS TO ABT 25 KT W/ LIMITED CLDNS. SFC CDFNT TO BE
OFF THE CST BY TNGT RESULTING IN WIND SHIFT TO NNW FOR
TNGT/TUE...ALG W/ ONLY SCT CLDNS (CONTD VFR CONDS).

DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST MIDWEEK. SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG IS PSBL
NR SUNRISE BUT WIDESPREAD IFR NOT XPCD AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A CDFNT PUSHES ACROSS THE MID ATLC WTRS BY LT THIS
AFTN/EVE...THEN WELL E OFF THE CST BY LATE TNGT/EARLY TUE. SURGE
IN SPEEDS ATTM W/ WSW WNDS...RESULTING IN LO END SCA FOR THE
BAY/PORTION OF RIVERS. WNDS (BECOME) W TDA...XPCG SPEEDS TO WANE
THIS AFTN/EVE...THEN BECOME NW AND N TNGT INTO TUE MRNG. VRB
WINDS AOB 10 KT XCPD WED THRU THU.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB









000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281014
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
614 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TODAY...THEN STALLS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SFC COLD FRONT IS FINALLY APPROACHING THE WV/VA BORDER AS THE
REGION SITS WITHIN A SPLIT FLOW WITH BEST DYNAMICS FOR ONGOING
SHOWERS/STORMS STAYING WELL TO THE NORTH AND ALSO WELL TO THE
SOUTHWEST. IN ADDITION...CLOUD TOP WARMING HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES ACROSS CNTRL VA THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
AKQ VAD WIND PROFILES CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG WLY WINDS FROM
900 MB ON UP...WHICH IS CAUSING DOWNSLOPE DRYING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
WAKEFIELD CWA. THEREFORE PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS MOVING TWD THE
PIEDMONT AND FAR NRN COUNTIES HAVE ALL BUT DISAPPEARED AS OF
315 AM THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY REDEVELOP OVER FAR SE
VA/NE NC THIS AFTN AS THE FRONT MAKES IT TO THE COAST AND
INTERACTS WITH SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES AND THE MARINE BOUNDARY
LAYER...PRIMARILY 15-20 PERCENT WITH CHANCE WORDING RIGHT ALONG
ALBEMARLE SOUND.

A WLY 80-90 KT JET STREAK NOSING INTO CNTRL VA TODAY WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SUBSIDENCE OF MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW
DOWNSLOPE DRYING TO ENDURE AND RESULT IN BREEZY WEST WINDS AROUND
20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH BY THIS AFTN. THE WELL-MIXED
ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE NICELY WHILE DRIVING
DEWPOINTS DOWN DRAMATICALLY (UPPER 50S NW TO LOWER 60S SE)...AS
COMPARED TO THE PAST WEEK OR SO. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS AROUND 90
(UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES) UNDER MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE COAST THIS EVENING. SINCE MOST
SHOWERS HAVE OCCURRED WELL OUT AHEAD OF IT...ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTN SHOULD COME TO AN END BY SUNRISE OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. A COOLER AND MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS
AHEAD WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S NW TO UPPER 60S SE AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
LIGHT NORTH WINDS DEVELOP BY TUESDAY AND WEAK CAA IS ANTICIPATED.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED AFTN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG CHES
BAY INTO FAR SE VA/NE NC AS THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A WEAK SFC LOW
LINGERING ALONG THE NOW STALLED CAROLINA COASTAL FRONT. POPS ARE
CAPPED FROM 15-20 PERCENT AT BEST. TEMPS WILL FEEL COOL AND
COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER
70S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S INLAND/MID-UPPER 60S AT IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION WED/WED NIGHT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW-MID 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF OVR THE MID ATLC REGION WED NGT...WILL
RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND DEEPEN THU THRU SUN.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING OFF THE MID ATLC CST WED NGT INTO
FRI...WILL DRIFT BACK TWD THE CST LATE FRI THRU SUN. FOR NOW...WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR WED NGT INTO FRI...THEN INCREASE TO SLGT CHC
OR CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT THRU SUN. STILL FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WED NGT
AND THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY/LO LVL MOIST RETURNS
FOR FRI THRU SUN. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID
80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S
THU MORNG...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI MORNG...RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT
MORNG...AND RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SUN MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DP LYRD WSW FLO OVR THE MDATLC RGN HAS RESULTED IN ANY CONVECTION
EXITING THE MTNS OVRNGT TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES E TWD THE CSTL
PLAIN. NOT RULING OUT ISOLD SHRA/TSTM THROUGH EARLY/MID
MRNG...MNLY INVOF SE VA/NE NC...(MAYBE AGN LT AFTN/EARLY EVE FAR
SE VA/CSTL NE NC)...THOUGH PCPN CHCS LWRG. VFR CONDS XPCD THROUGH
TDA...GUSTY W WNDS TO ABT 25 KT W/ LIMITED CLDNS. SFC CDFNT TO BE
OFF THE CST BY TNGT RESULTING IN WIND SHIFT TO NNW FOR
TNGT/TUE...ALG W/ ONLY SCT CLDNS (CONTD VFR CONDS).

DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST MIDWEEK. SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG IS PSBL
NR SUNRISE BUT WIDESPREAD IFR NOT XPCD AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A CDFNT PUSHES ACROSS THE MID ATLC WTRS BY LT THIS
AFTN/EVE...THEN WELL E OFF THE CST BY LATE TNGT/EARLY TUE. SURGE
IN SPEEDS ATTM W/ WSW WNDS...RESULTING IN LO END SCA FOR THE
BAY/PORTION OF RIVERS. WNDS (BECOME) W TDA...XPCG SPEEDS TO WANE
THIS AFTN/EVE...THEN BECOME NW AND N TNGT INTO TUE MRNG. VRB
WINDS AOB 10 KT XCPD WED THRU THU.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB











000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281014
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
614 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TODAY...THEN STALLS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SFC COLD FRONT IS FINALLY APPROACHING THE WV/VA BORDER AS THE
REGION SITS WITHIN A SPLIT FLOW WITH BEST DYNAMICS FOR ONGOING
SHOWERS/STORMS STAYING WELL TO THE NORTH AND ALSO WELL TO THE
SOUTHWEST. IN ADDITION...CLOUD TOP WARMING HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES ACROSS CNTRL VA THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
AKQ VAD WIND PROFILES CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG WLY WINDS FROM
900 MB ON UP...WHICH IS CAUSING DOWNSLOPE DRYING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
WAKEFIELD CWA. THEREFORE PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS MOVING TWD THE
PIEDMONT AND FAR NRN COUNTIES HAVE ALL BUT DISAPPEARED AS OF
315 AM THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY REDEVELOP OVER FAR SE
VA/NE NC THIS AFTN AS THE FRONT MAKES IT TO THE COAST AND
INTERACTS WITH SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES AND THE MARINE BOUNDARY
LAYER...PRIMARILY 15-20 PERCENT WITH CHANCE WORDING RIGHT ALONG
ALBEMARLE SOUND.

A WLY 80-90 KT JET STREAK NOSING INTO CNTRL VA TODAY WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SUBSIDENCE OF MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW
DOWNSLOPE DRYING TO ENDURE AND RESULT IN BREEZY WEST WINDS AROUND
20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH BY THIS AFTN. THE WELL-MIXED
ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE NICELY WHILE DRIVING
DEWPOINTS DOWN DRAMATICALLY (UPPER 50S NW TO LOWER 60S SE)...AS
COMPARED TO THE PAST WEEK OR SO. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS AROUND 90
(UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES) UNDER MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE COAST THIS EVENING. SINCE MOST
SHOWERS HAVE OCCURRED WELL OUT AHEAD OF IT...ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTN SHOULD COME TO AN END BY SUNRISE OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. A COOLER AND MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS
AHEAD WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S NW TO UPPER 60S SE AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
LIGHT NORTH WINDS DEVELOP BY TUESDAY AND WEAK CAA IS ANTICIPATED.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED AFTN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG CHES
BAY INTO FAR SE VA/NE NC AS THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A WEAK SFC LOW
LINGERING ALONG THE NOW STALLED CAROLINA COASTAL FRONT. POPS ARE
CAPPED FROM 15-20 PERCENT AT BEST. TEMPS WILL FEEL COOL AND
COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER
70S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S INLAND/MID-UPPER 60S AT IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION WED/WED NIGHT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW-MID 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF OVR THE MID ATLC REGION WED NGT...WILL
RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND DEEPEN THU THRU SUN.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING OFF THE MID ATLC CST WED NGT INTO
FRI...WILL DRIFT BACK TWD THE CST LATE FRI THRU SUN. FOR NOW...WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR WED NGT INTO FRI...THEN INCREASE TO SLGT CHC
OR CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT THRU SUN. STILL FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WED NGT
AND THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY/LO LVL MOIST RETURNS
FOR FRI THRU SUN. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID
80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S
THU MORNG...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI MORNG...RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT
MORNG...AND RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SUN MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DP LYRD WSW FLO OVR THE MDATLC RGN HAS RESULTED IN ANY CONVECTION
EXITING THE MTNS OVRNGT TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES E TWD THE CSTL
PLAIN. NOT RULING OUT ISOLD SHRA/TSTM THROUGH EARLY/MID
MRNG...MNLY INVOF SE VA/NE NC...(MAYBE AGN LT AFTN/EARLY EVE FAR
SE VA/CSTL NE NC)...THOUGH PCPN CHCS LWRG. VFR CONDS XPCD THROUGH
TDA...GUSTY W WNDS TO ABT 25 KT W/ LIMITED CLDNS. SFC CDFNT TO BE
OFF THE CST BY TNGT RESULTING IN WIND SHIFT TO NNW FOR
TNGT/TUE...ALG W/ ONLY SCT CLDNS (CONTD VFR CONDS).

DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST MIDWEEK. SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG IS PSBL
NR SUNRISE BUT WIDESPREAD IFR NOT XPCD AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A CDFNT PUSHES ACROSS THE MID ATLC WTRS BY LT THIS
AFTN/EVE...THEN WELL E OFF THE CST BY LATE TNGT/EARLY TUE. SURGE
IN SPEEDS ATTM W/ WSW WNDS...RESULTING IN LO END SCA FOR THE
BAY/PORTION OF RIVERS. WNDS (BECOME) W TDA...XPCG SPEEDS TO WANE
THIS AFTN/EVE...THEN BECOME NW AND N TNGT INTO TUE MRNG. VRB
WINDS AOB 10 KT XCPD WED THRU THU.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB












000
FXUS61 KRNK 280840
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
440 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...BRINGING A
SHOT OF COOLER DRIER CANADIAN AIR TO THE MID ATLANTIC. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING GUSTY
WINDS TO THE FORECAST REGION LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON...IN ADDITION TO SPOTTY UPSLOPE SHOWERS ALONG THE
WESTERN RIDGES. COOLER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...

ASIDE FROM A FEW SPRINKLES LEFT OVER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING...ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS EXITED THE AREA FOR THE TIME
BEING. THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS ACROSS
WEST VIRGINIA AS THE PARENT SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EAST OVER EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA...AND EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO ENTER OUR SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES BY AROUND SUNRISE...PUSHING RAPIDLY EAST
THROUGH THE MORNING.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE MORNING WILL BE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS BEHIND THE FRONT AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PASSES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. STRONG WINDS WRAPPING
AROUND THE SOUTHERN END OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT
GUSTS TO MAX OUT AS HIGH AS 40 MPH AT TIMES AT ELEVATIONS OF 30OO
FEET AND UP. THE MAIN ENERGY MOVING AROUND THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA DURING MID AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT TO
SEE WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THEREAFTER.

WITH WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWESTERLY AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DISTURBANCE DURING EARLY AFTERNOON...WILL ALSO SEE SPOTTY UPSLOPE
SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOP ACROSS OUR WESTERN RIDGELINES OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. LAPSE RATES WILL
BECOME STEEP ENOUGH FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON THAT
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP INTO
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT BELIEVE THOSE WILL BE FEW AND FAR IN BETWEEN
AT BEST. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE INTO THE EVENING AS WIND
SPEEDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...BUT EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS TO LINGER
INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TODAY ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE TIME FOR DECENT HEATING
BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT CONSIDERING THE
DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND DRY DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY WINDS. EXPECT
HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE WESTERN RIDGES TO THE
UPPER 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE
LOW 50S WEST AND THE LOW 60S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT MONDAY...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROF WILL
COVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE JULY.

WITH ONLY A THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE EXPECTED BETWEEN 5-10KT
TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION WILL BE HARD TO COME BY...BUT KEPT A SMALL
CHANCE IN FAR SOUTHWEST VA AND NW NC...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF. OTHERWISE...ONLY SOME
CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL COVER THE REGION. TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE
COOLEST DAY DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE GEFS FORECASTING 850MB
TEMPS 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN VERY CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN WITH ITS HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST....SO STRAYED LITTLE FROM THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S
FORECAST IN THE MOUNTAINS TO UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE.

A WEAK LOW THAT FORMS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TUESDAY LIFTS NORTHEAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH EAST TO NOT INFLUENCE OUR
WEATHER. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 12Z (8 AM EDT) WEDNESDAY. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW LOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 40S IN SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE EAST.
THESE VALUES WILL BE CLOSE TO THE RECORDS FOR JULY 30TH. SEE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW FOR RECORD LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY.

UPPER TROF RELAXES SOME ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING 850MB TEMPS TO WARM
A COUPLE OF DEGREES VERSUS TUESDAY. STILL...TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL. THE 00Z NAM AND 21Z SREF APPEAR BULLISH ON DEVELOPING
UPSLOPE SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR IN PLACE...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO
SIT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT WITH DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY HIGHER...LOWS WILL BE A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THURSDAY MORNING...BUT STILL WELL BELOW
NORMAL AND CLOSE TO RECORD LOWS IN SOME LOCATIONS LIKE LWB.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A SURFACE HIGH THURSDAY OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN WILL SHIFT EAST
TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AT THE MID LEVELS A
PERSISTENT TROUGH IS SET UP OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN US. THURSDAY LACKS LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE SO EXPECT
THE DAY TO BE DRY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE FOR FRIDAY AND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES PIVOT ACROSS
THE REGION AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING AND TAPER OFF TO
JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING. FOCUS OF THE HIGHEST
CHANCE POPS ARE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE WILL
BE LOCATED...WITH LOWER CHANCE POPS OUT EAST.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH 850MB TEMPS
AROUND +16C. THIS WILL CORRESPOND TO SURFACE HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID
80S OUT EAST AND NEAR 80 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST ON FRIDAY THE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM N/NW TO AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION. THIS WILL WEDGE THE AREA IN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. WITH THE INCREASED LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. THIS ALONG WITH EXPECTED SCATTERED PRECIP AND 850MB
TEMPS FALLING TO +11-14C...SURFACE HIGH TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM EDT MONDAY...

KEEPING AN EYE ON THE LAST OF THE CONVECTION ENTERING THE MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE THIS MORNING...BREAKING UP AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE DOWNSLOPE
EAST OF THE HIGHEST RIDGES. MAY SEE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AT BLF AS
SHOWERS PASS...DRAWING STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO THE SURFACE.
SHOWERS WILL EXIT BY 08Z...AND EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT
THEREAFTER ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES.

THE COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS WV AND WILL ENTER THE
VICINITY OF KLWB/KBLF BY AROUND 09Z...AND PROGRESS EAST QUICKLY
THROUGH THE MORNING. WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS FOR KROA/KLYH/KDAN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHILE
LINGERING STRATOCU WILL RESULT IN PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS FOR A FEW
HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE FOR KBCB/KLWB/KBLF.

THROUGH THE DAY...ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROF WILL
COMBINE WITH UPSLOPE AND INSTABILITY BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AND STEEPISH LAPSE RATES AS SEEN ON MODEL SOUNDINGS TO
SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES AT KLWB AND KBLF BY LATE AFTERNOON.
WINDS LOOK TO BE GUSTY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE TAF AS 850MB
FLOW IS ZIPPING ALONG AND DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER SHOULD BE
EFFICIENT TO MIX IT DOWN AFTER DAYBREAK. THE LATTER PORTION OF THE
TAF PERIOD LOOKS QUIET WITH VFR EAST OF THE RIDGE AND MVFR WEST
AND WINDS SETTLE DOWN TOWARD EVENING BEFORE DECOUPLING.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FOR TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WILL BRING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT LATE NIGHT FOG AT KBCB/KLWB...
ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVELS MAY STAY DRY ENOUGH FOR LESS FOG COVERAGE.

VARIABLE CIGS EXPECTED UNDER ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW THROUGHOUT THE
REST OF THE WEEK. A FEW -SHRA NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION
ACROSS EASTERN WV...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. TYPICAL FOG
POTENTIAL LESS THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK BECAUSE OF TURBULENT MIXING AND PREVAILING CYCLONIC FLOW.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE UPPER LOW RETROGRADES JUST
WEST OF THE REGION...INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA BUT MAINLY
SW OF THE TAF SITES INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...

JULY 30TH RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......54...1997
BLUEFIELD....50...1981
DANVILLE.....60...1972/81/83/2013
LEWISBURG....46...2013
LYNCHBURG....52...1997
BLACKSBURG...50...1973/81


JULY 31ST RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......49...1914
BLUEFIELD....49...1997
DANVILLE.....55...1966
LEWISBURG....48...1997
LYNCHBURG....49...1997
BLACKSBURG...44...1997

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE WEATHER RADIO AT HINTON WEST VA TRANSMITTING ON FREQUENCY
162.425 MHZ REMAINS OFF THE AIR LIKELY DUE TO PHONE LINE PROBLEMS.
RESTORATION OF SERVICE IS NOT EXPECTED BEFORE NOON ON MONDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...MBS/NF
CLIMATE...PH
EQUIPMENT...JH



000
FXUS61 KRNK 280840
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
440 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...BRINGING A
SHOT OF COOLER DRIER CANADIAN AIR TO THE MID ATLANTIC. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING GUSTY
WINDS TO THE FORECAST REGION LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON...IN ADDITION TO SPOTTY UPSLOPE SHOWERS ALONG THE
WESTERN RIDGES. COOLER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...

ASIDE FROM A FEW SPRINKLES LEFT OVER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING...ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS EXITED THE AREA FOR THE TIME
BEING. THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS ACROSS
WEST VIRGINIA AS THE PARENT SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EAST OVER EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA...AND EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO ENTER OUR SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES BY AROUND SUNRISE...PUSHING RAPIDLY EAST
THROUGH THE MORNING.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE MORNING WILL BE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS BEHIND THE FRONT AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PASSES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. STRONG WINDS WRAPPING
AROUND THE SOUTHERN END OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT
GUSTS TO MAX OUT AS HIGH AS 40 MPH AT TIMES AT ELEVATIONS OF 30OO
FEET AND UP. THE MAIN ENERGY MOVING AROUND THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA DURING MID AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT TO
SEE WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THEREAFTER.

WITH WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWESTERLY AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DISTURBANCE DURING EARLY AFTERNOON...WILL ALSO SEE SPOTTY UPSLOPE
SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOP ACROSS OUR WESTERN RIDGELINES OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. LAPSE RATES WILL
BECOME STEEP ENOUGH FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON THAT
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP INTO
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT BELIEVE THOSE WILL BE FEW AND FAR IN BETWEEN
AT BEST. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE INTO THE EVENING AS WIND
SPEEDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...BUT EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS TO LINGER
INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TODAY ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE TIME FOR DECENT HEATING
BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT CONSIDERING THE
DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND DRY DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY WINDS. EXPECT
HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE WESTERN RIDGES TO THE
UPPER 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE
LOW 50S WEST AND THE LOW 60S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT MONDAY...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROF WILL
COVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE JULY.

WITH ONLY A THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE EXPECTED BETWEEN 5-10KT
TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION WILL BE HARD TO COME BY...BUT KEPT A SMALL
CHANCE IN FAR SOUTHWEST VA AND NW NC...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF. OTHERWISE...ONLY SOME
CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL COVER THE REGION. TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE
COOLEST DAY DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE GEFS FORECASTING 850MB
TEMPS 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN VERY CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN WITH ITS HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST....SO STRAYED LITTLE FROM THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S
FORECAST IN THE MOUNTAINS TO UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE.

A WEAK LOW THAT FORMS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TUESDAY LIFTS NORTHEAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH EAST TO NOT INFLUENCE OUR
WEATHER. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 12Z (8 AM EDT) WEDNESDAY. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW LOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 40S IN SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE EAST.
THESE VALUES WILL BE CLOSE TO THE RECORDS FOR JULY 30TH. SEE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW FOR RECORD LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY.

UPPER TROF RELAXES SOME ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING 850MB TEMPS TO WARM
A COUPLE OF DEGREES VERSUS TUESDAY. STILL...TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL. THE 00Z NAM AND 21Z SREF APPEAR BULLISH ON DEVELOPING
UPSLOPE SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR IN PLACE...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO
SIT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT WITH DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY HIGHER...LOWS WILL BE A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THURSDAY MORNING...BUT STILL WELL BELOW
NORMAL AND CLOSE TO RECORD LOWS IN SOME LOCATIONS LIKE LWB.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A SURFACE HIGH THURSDAY OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN WILL SHIFT EAST
TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AT THE MID LEVELS A
PERSISTENT TROUGH IS SET UP OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN US. THURSDAY LACKS LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE SO EXPECT
THE DAY TO BE DRY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE FOR FRIDAY AND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES PIVOT ACROSS
THE REGION AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING AND TAPER OFF TO
JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING. FOCUS OF THE HIGHEST
CHANCE POPS ARE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE WILL
BE LOCATED...WITH LOWER CHANCE POPS OUT EAST.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH 850MB TEMPS
AROUND +16C. THIS WILL CORRESPOND TO SURFACE HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID
80S OUT EAST AND NEAR 80 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST ON FRIDAY THE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM N/NW TO AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION. THIS WILL WEDGE THE AREA IN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. WITH THE INCREASED LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. THIS ALONG WITH EXPECTED SCATTERED PRECIP AND 850MB
TEMPS FALLING TO +11-14C...SURFACE HIGH TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM EDT MONDAY...

KEEPING AN EYE ON THE LAST OF THE CONVECTION ENTERING THE MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE THIS MORNING...BREAKING UP AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE DOWNSLOPE
EAST OF THE HIGHEST RIDGES. MAY SEE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AT BLF AS
SHOWERS PASS...DRAWING STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO THE SURFACE.
SHOWERS WILL EXIT BY 08Z...AND EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT
THEREAFTER ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES.

THE COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS WV AND WILL ENTER THE
VICINITY OF KLWB/KBLF BY AROUND 09Z...AND PROGRESS EAST QUICKLY
THROUGH THE MORNING. WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS FOR KROA/KLYH/KDAN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHILE
LINGERING STRATOCU WILL RESULT IN PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS FOR A FEW
HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE FOR KBCB/KLWB/KBLF.

THROUGH THE DAY...ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROF WILL
COMBINE WITH UPSLOPE AND INSTABILITY BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AND STEEPISH LAPSE RATES AS SEEN ON MODEL SOUNDINGS TO
SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES AT KLWB AND KBLF BY LATE AFTERNOON.
WINDS LOOK TO BE GUSTY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE TAF AS 850MB
FLOW IS ZIPPING ALONG AND DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER SHOULD BE
EFFICIENT TO MIX IT DOWN AFTER DAYBREAK. THE LATTER PORTION OF THE
TAF PERIOD LOOKS QUIET WITH VFR EAST OF THE RIDGE AND MVFR WEST
AND WINDS SETTLE DOWN TOWARD EVENING BEFORE DECOUPLING.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FOR TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WILL BRING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT LATE NIGHT FOG AT KBCB/KLWB...
ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVELS MAY STAY DRY ENOUGH FOR LESS FOG COVERAGE.

VARIABLE CIGS EXPECTED UNDER ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW THROUGHOUT THE
REST OF THE WEEK. A FEW -SHRA NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION
ACROSS EASTERN WV...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. TYPICAL FOG
POTENTIAL LESS THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK BECAUSE OF TURBULENT MIXING AND PREVAILING CYCLONIC FLOW.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE UPPER LOW RETROGRADES JUST
WEST OF THE REGION...INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA BUT MAINLY
SW OF THE TAF SITES INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...

JULY 30TH RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......54...1997
BLUEFIELD....50...1981
DANVILLE.....60...1972/81/83/2013
LEWISBURG....46...2013
LYNCHBURG....52...1997
BLACKSBURG...50...1973/81


JULY 31ST RECORD LOWS:

ROANOKE......49...1914
BLUEFIELD....49...1997
DANVILLE.....55...1966
LEWISBURG....48...1997
LYNCHBURG....49...1997
BLACKSBURG...44...1997

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE WEATHER RADIO AT HINTON WEST VA TRANSMITTING ON FREQUENCY
162.425 MHZ REMAINS OFF THE AIR LIKELY DUE TO PHONE LINE PROBLEMS.
RESTORATION OF SERVICE IS NOT EXPECTED BEFORE NOON ON MONDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...MBS/NF
CLIMATE...PH
EQUIPMENT...JH




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280820
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
420 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TODAY...THEN STALLS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SFC COLD FRONT IS FINALLY APPROACHING THE WV/VA BORDER AS THE
REGION SITS WITHIN A SPLIT FLOW WITH BEST DYNAMICS FOR ONGOING
SHOWERS/STORMS STAYING WELL TO THE NORTH AND ALSO WELL TO THE
SOUTHWEST. IN ADDITION...CLOUD TOP WARMING HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES ACROSS CNTRL VA THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
AKQ VAD WIND PROFILES CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG WLY WINDS FROM
900 MB ON UP...WHICH IS CAUSING DOWNSLOPE DRYING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
WAKEFIELD CWA. THEREFORE PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS MOVING TWD THE
PIEDMONT AND FAR NRN COUNTIES HAVE ALL BUT DISAPPEARED AS OF
315 AM THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY REDEVELOP OVER FAR SE
VA/NE NC THIS AFTN AS THE FRONT MAKES IT TO THE COAST AND
INTERACTS WITH SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES AND THE MARINE BOUNDARY
LAYER...PRIMARILY 15-20 PERCENT WITH CHANCE WORDING RIGHT ALONG
ALBEMARLE SOUND.

A WLY 80-90 KT JET STREAK NOSING INTO CNTRL VA TODAY WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SUBSIDENCE OF MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW
DOWNSLOPE DRYING TO ENDURE AND RESULT IN BREEZY WEST WINDS AROUND
20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH BY THIS AFTN. THE WELL-MIXED
ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE NICELY WHILE DRIVING
DEWPOINTS DOWN DRAMATICALLY (UPPER 50S NW TO LOWER 60S SE)...AS
COMPARED TO THE PAST WEEK OR SO. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS AROUND 90
(UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES) UNDER MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE COAST THIS EVENING. SINCE MOST
SHOWERS HAVE OCCURRED WELL OUT AHEAD OF IT...ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTN SHOULD COME TO AN END BY SUNRISE OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. A COOLER AND MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS
AHEAD WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S NW TO UPPER 60S SE AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
LIGHT NORTH WINDS DEVELOP BY TUESDAY AND WEAK CAA IS ANTICIPATED.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED AFTN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG CHES
BAY INTO FAR SE VA/NE NC AS THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A WEAK SFC LOW
LINGERING ALONG THE NOW STALLED CAROLINA COASTAL FRONT. POPS ARE
CAPPED FROM 15-20 PERCENT AT BEST. TEMPS WILL FEEL COOL AND
COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER
70S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S INLAND/MID-UPPER 60S AT IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION WED/WED NIGHT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW-MID 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF OVR THE MID ATLC REGION WED NGT...WILL
RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND DEEPEN THU THRU SUN.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING OFF THE MID ATLC CST WED NGT INTO
FRI...WILL DRIFT BACK TWD THE CST LATE FRI THRU SUN. FOR NOW...WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR WED NGT INTO FRI...THEN INCREASE TO SLGT CHC
OR CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT THRU SUN. STILL FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WED NGT
AND THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY/LO LVL MOIST RETURNS
FOR FRI THRU SUN. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID
80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S
THU MORNG...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI MORNG...RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT
MORNG...AND RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SUN MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DP LYRD WSW FLO OVR THE MDATLC RGN RESULTING IN ANY CONVECTION
EXITING THE MTNS THE PAST FEW HR TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES E TWD
THE CSTL PLAIN. NOT RULING OUT ISOLD SHRA/TSTM THROUGH EARLY/MID
MRNG E OF THE MTNS (MAYBE AGN LT AFTN/EARLY EVE FAR SE VA/CSTL NE
NC)...THOUGH PCPN CHCS LWRG. VFR CONDS XPCD THROUGH TDA...GUSTY W
WNDS TO ABT 25 KT W/ LIMITED CLDNS. SFC CDFNT TO BE OFF THE CST BY
TNGT RESULTING IN WIND SHIFT TO NNW FOR TNGT/TUE...ALG W/ ONLY SCT
CLDNS (CONTD VFR CONDS).

DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST MIDWEEK. SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG IS PSBL
NR SUNRISE BUT WIDESPREAD IFR NOT XPCD AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A CDFNT PUSHES ACROSS THE MID ATLC WTRS BY LT THIS
AFTN/EVE...THEN WELL E OFF THE CST BY LATE TNGT/EARLY TUE. SURGE
IN SPEEDS ATTM W/ SW WNDS...RESULTING IN LO END SCA FOR THE
BAY/PORTION OF RIVERS. WNDS BECOME W TDA...XPCG SPEEDS TO WANE
THIS AFTN/EVE...THEN BECOME NW AND N TNGT INTO TUE MRNG. VRB
WINDS AOB 10 KT XCPD WED THRU THU.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280820
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
420 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TODAY...THEN STALLS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SFC COLD FRONT IS FINALLY APPROACHING THE WV/VA BORDER AS THE
REGION SITS WITHIN A SPLIT FLOW WITH BEST DYNAMICS FOR ONGOING
SHOWERS/STORMS STAYING WELL TO THE NORTH AND ALSO WELL TO THE
SOUTHWEST. IN ADDITION...CLOUD TOP WARMING HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES ACROSS CNTRL VA THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
AKQ VAD WIND PROFILES CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG WLY WINDS FROM
900 MB ON UP...WHICH IS CAUSING DOWNSLOPE DRYING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
WAKEFIELD CWA. THEREFORE PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS MOVING TWD THE
PIEDMONT AND FAR NRN COUNTIES HAVE ALL BUT DISAPPEARED AS OF
315 AM THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY REDEVELOP OVER FAR SE
VA/NE NC THIS AFTN AS THE FRONT MAKES IT TO THE COAST AND
INTERACTS WITH SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES AND THE MARINE BOUNDARY
LAYER...PRIMARILY 15-20 PERCENT WITH CHANCE WORDING RIGHT ALONG
ALBEMARLE SOUND.

A WLY 80-90 KT JET STREAK NOSING INTO CNTRL VA TODAY WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SUBSIDENCE OF MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW
DOWNSLOPE DRYING TO ENDURE AND RESULT IN BREEZY WEST WINDS AROUND
20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH BY THIS AFTN. THE WELL-MIXED
ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE NICELY WHILE DRIVING
DEWPOINTS DOWN DRAMATICALLY (UPPER 50S NW TO LOWER 60S SE)...AS
COMPARED TO THE PAST WEEK OR SO. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS AROUND 90
(UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES) UNDER MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE COAST THIS EVENING. SINCE MOST
SHOWERS HAVE OCCURRED WELL OUT AHEAD OF IT...ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTN SHOULD COME TO AN END BY SUNRISE OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. A COOLER AND MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS
AHEAD WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S NW TO UPPER 60S SE AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
LIGHT NORTH WINDS DEVELOP BY TUESDAY AND WEAK CAA IS ANTICIPATED.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED AFTN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG CHES
BAY INTO FAR SE VA/NE NC AS THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A WEAK SFC LOW
LINGERING ALONG THE NOW STALLED CAROLINA COASTAL FRONT. POPS ARE
CAPPED FROM 15-20 PERCENT AT BEST. TEMPS WILL FEEL COOL AND
COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER
70S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S INLAND/MID-UPPER 60S AT IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION WED/WED NIGHT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW-MID 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF OVR THE MID ATLC REGION WED NGT...WILL
RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND DEEPEN THU THRU SUN.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING OFF THE MID ATLC CST WED NGT INTO
FRI...WILL DRIFT BACK TWD THE CST LATE FRI THRU SUN. FOR NOW...WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR WED NGT INTO FRI...THEN INCREASE TO SLGT CHC
OR CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT THRU SUN. STILL FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WED NGT
AND THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY/LO LVL MOIST RETURNS
FOR FRI THRU SUN. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID
80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S
THU MORNG...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI MORNG...RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT
MORNG...AND RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SUN MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DP LYRD WSW FLO OVR THE MDATLC RGN RESULTING IN ANY CONVECTION
EXITING THE MTNS THE PAST FEW HR TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES E TWD
THE CSTL PLAIN. NOT RULING OUT ISOLD SHRA/TSTM THROUGH EARLY/MID
MRNG E OF THE MTNS (MAYBE AGN LT AFTN/EARLY EVE FAR SE VA/CSTL NE
NC)...THOUGH PCPN CHCS LWRG. VFR CONDS XPCD THROUGH TDA...GUSTY W
WNDS TO ABT 25 KT W/ LIMITED CLDNS. SFC CDFNT TO BE OFF THE CST BY
TNGT RESULTING IN WIND SHIFT TO NNW FOR TNGT/TUE...ALG W/ ONLY SCT
CLDNS (CONTD VFR CONDS).

DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST MIDWEEK. SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG IS PSBL
NR SUNRISE BUT WIDESPREAD IFR NOT XPCD AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A CDFNT PUSHES ACROSS THE MID ATLC WTRS BY LT THIS
AFTN/EVE...THEN WELL E OFF THE CST BY LATE TNGT/EARLY TUE. SURGE
IN SPEEDS ATTM W/ SW WNDS...RESULTING IN LO END SCA FOR THE
BAY/PORTION OF RIVERS. WNDS BECOME W TDA...XPCG SPEEDS TO WANE
THIS AFTN/EVE...THEN BECOME NW AND N TNGT INTO TUE MRNG. VRB
WINDS AOB 10 KT XCPD WED THRU THU.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280805
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
405 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TODAY...THEN STALLS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SFC COLD FRONT IS FINALLY APPROACHING THE WV/VA BORDER AS THE
REGION SITS WITHIN A SPLIT FLOW WITH BEST DYNAMICS FOR ONGOING
SHOWERS/STORMS STAYING WELL TO THE NORTH AND ALSO WELL TO THE
SOUTHWEST. IN ADDITION...CLOUD TOP WARMING HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES ACROSS CNTRL VA THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
AKQ VAD WIND PROFILES CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG WLY WINDS FROM
900 MB ON UP...WHICH IS CAUSING DOWNSLOPE DRYING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
WAKEFIELD CWA. THEREFORE PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS MOVING TWD THE
PIEDMONT AND FAR NRN COUNTIES HAVE ALL BUT DISAPPEARED AS OF
315 AM THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY REDEVELOP OVER FAR SE
VA/NE NC THIS AFTN AS THE FRONT MAKES IT TO THE COAST AND
INTERACTS WITH SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES AND THE MARINE BOUNDARY
LAYER...PRIMARILY 15-20 PERCENT WITH CHANCE WORDING RIGHT ALONG
ALBEMARLE SOUND.

A WLY 80-90 KT JET STREAK NOSING INTO CNTRL VA TODAY WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SUBSIDENCE OF MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW
DOWNSLOPE DRYING TO ENDURE AND RESULT IN BREEZY WEST WINDS AROUND
20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH BY THIS AFTN. THE WELL-MIXED
ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE NICELY WHILE DRIVING
DEWPOINTS DOWN DRAMATICALLY (UPPER 50S NW TO LOWER 60S SE)...AS
COMPARED TO THE PAST WEEK OR SO. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS AROUND 90
(UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES) UNDER MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE COAST THIS EVENING. SINCE MOST
SHOWERS HAVE OCCURRED WELL OUT AHEAD OF IT...ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTN SHOULD COME TO AN END BY SUNRISE OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. A COOLER AND MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS
AHEAD WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S NW TO UPPER 60S SE AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
LIGHT NORTH WINDS DEVELOP BY TUESDAY AND WEAK CAA IS ANTICIPATED.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED AFTN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG CHES
BAY INTO FAR SE VA/NE NC AS THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A WEAK SFC LOW
LINGERING ALONG THE NOW STALLED CAROLINA COASTAL FRONT. POPS ARE
CAPPED FROM 15-20 PERCENT AT BEST. TEMPS WILL FEEL COOL AND
COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER
70S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S INLAND/MID-UPPER 60S AT IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION WED/WED NIGHT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW-MID 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF OVR THE MID ATLC REGION WED NGT...WILL
RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND DEEPEN THU THRU SUN.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING OFF THE MID ATLC CST WED NGT INTO
FRI...WILL DRIFT BACK TWD THE CST LATE FRI THRU SUN. FOR NOW...WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR WED NGT INTO FRI...THEN INCREASE TO SLGT CHC
OR CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT THRU SUN. STILL FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WED NGT
AND THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY/LO LVL MOIST RETURNS
FOR FRI THRU SUN. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID
80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S
THU MORNG...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI MORNG...RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT
MORNG...AND RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SUN MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DP LYRD WSW FLO OVR THE MDATLC RGN RESULTING IN ANY CONVECTION
EXITING THE MTNS THE PAST FEW HR TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES E TWD
THE CSTL PLAIN. NOT RULING OUT ISOLD SHRA/TSTM THROUGH EARLY/MID
MRNG E OF THE MTNS (MAYBE AGN LT AFTN/EARLY EVE FAR SE VA/CSTL NE
NC)...THOUGH PCPN CHCS LWRG. VFR CONDS XPCD THROUGH TDA...GUSTY W
WNDS TO ABT 25 KT W/ LIMITED CLDNS. SFC CDFNT TO BE OFF THE CST BY
TNGT RESULTING IN WIND SHIFT TO NNW FOR TNGT/TUE...ALG W/ ONLY SCT
CLDNS (CONTD VFR CONDS).

DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST MIDWEEK. SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG IS PSBL
NR SUNRISE BUT WIDESPREAD IFR NOT XPCD AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A CDFNT PUSHES APPROACHES THE MID ATLC WTRS BY LT THIS AFTN/EVE...
THEN WELL E OFF THE CST BY LATE TNGT/EARLY TUE. SSW WINDS 10 TO
20 KT BECOME W TDA...THEN NW AND N MON NGT INTO TUE MRNG. VRB
WINDS AOB 10 KT XCPD WED THRU THU.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280805
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
405 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TODAY...THEN STALLS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SFC COLD FRONT IS FINALLY APPROACHING THE WV/VA BORDER AS THE
REGION SITS WITHIN A SPLIT FLOW WITH BEST DYNAMICS FOR ONGOING
SHOWERS/STORMS STAYING WELL TO THE NORTH AND ALSO WELL TO THE
SOUTHWEST. IN ADDITION...CLOUD TOP WARMING HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES ACROSS CNTRL VA THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
AKQ VAD WIND PROFILES CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG WLY WINDS FROM
900 MB ON UP...WHICH IS CAUSING DOWNSLOPE DRYING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
WAKEFIELD CWA. THEREFORE PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS MOVING TWD THE
PIEDMONT AND FAR NRN COUNTIES HAVE ALL BUT DISAPPEARED AS OF
315 AM THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY REDEVELOP OVER FAR SE
VA/NE NC THIS AFTN AS THE FRONT MAKES IT TO THE COAST AND
INTERACTS WITH SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES AND THE MARINE BOUNDARY
LAYER...PRIMARILY 15-20 PERCENT WITH CHANCE WORDING RIGHT ALONG
ALBEMARLE SOUND.

A WLY 80-90 KT JET STREAK NOSING INTO CNTRL VA TODAY WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SUBSIDENCE OF MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW
DOWNSLOPE DRYING TO ENDURE AND RESULT IN BREEZY WEST WINDS AROUND
20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH BY THIS AFTN. THE WELL-MIXED
ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE NICELY WHILE DRIVING
DEWPOINTS DOWN DRAMATICALLY (UPPER 50S NW TO LOWER 60S SE)...AS
COMPARED TO THE PAST WEEK OR SO. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS AROUND 90
(UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES) UNDER MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE COAST THIS EVENING. SINCE MOST
SHOWERS HAVE OCCURRED WELL OUT AHEAD OF IT...ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTN SHOULD COME TO AN END BY SUNRISE OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. A COOLER AND MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS
AHEAD WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S NW TO UPPER 60S SE AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
LIGHT NORTH WINDS DEVELOP BY TUESDAY AND WEAK CAA IS ANTICIPATED.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED AFTN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG CHES
BAY INTO FAR SE VA/NE NC AS THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A WEAK SFC LOW
LINGERING ALONG THE NOW STALLED CAROLINA COASTAL FRONT. POPS ARE
CAPPED FROM 15-20 PERCENT AT BEST. TEMPS WILL FEEL COOL AND
COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER
70S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S INLAND/MID-UPPER 60S AT IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION WED/WED NIGHT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW-MID 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF OVR THE MID ATLC REGION WED NGT...WILL
RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND DEEPEN THU THRU SUN.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING OFF THE MID ATLC CST WED NGT INTO
FRI...WILL DRIFT BACK TWD THE CST LATE FRI THRU SUN. FOR NOW...WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR WED NGT INTO FRI...THEN INCREASE TO SLGT CHC
OR CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT THRU SUN. STILL FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WED NGT
AND THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY/LO LVL MOIST RETURNS
FOR FRI THRU SUN. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID
80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S
THU MORNG...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI MORNG...RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT
MORNG...AND RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SUN MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DP LYRD WSW FLO OVR THE MDATLC RGN RESULTING IN ANY CONVECTION
EXITING THE MTNS THE PAST FEW HR TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES E TWD
THE CSTL PLAIN. NOT RULING OUT ISOLD SHRA/TSTM THROUGH EARLY/MID
MRNG E OF THE MTNS (MAYBE AGN LT AFTN/EARLY EVE FAR SE VA/CSTL NE
NC)...THOUGH PCPN CHCS LWRG. VFR CONDS XPCD THROUGH TDA...GUSTY W
WNDS TO ABT 25 KT W/ LIMITED CLDNS. SFC CDFNT TO BE OFF THE CST BY
TNGT RESULTING IN WIND SHIFT TO NNW FOR TNGT/TUE...ALG W/ ONLY SCT
CLDNS (CONTD VFR CONDS).

DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST MIDWEEK. SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG IS PSBL
NR SUNRISE BUT WIDESPREAD IFR NOT XPCD AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A CDFNT PUSHES APPROACHES THE MID ATLC WTRS BY LT THIS AFTN/EVE...
THEN WELL E OFF THE CST BY LATE TNGT/EARLY TUE. SSW WINDS 10 TO
20 KT BECOME W TDA...THEN NW AND N MON NGT INTO TUE MRNG. VRB
WINDS AOB 10 KT XCPD WED THRU THU.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB









000
FXUS61 KLWX 280748
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
348 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. DRIER WEATHER WILL MOVE
IN BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FOR MIDWEEK...
BRINGING COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

RGN ESCAPED THE SVR THREAT SUN NGT - RCVD A REPORT OF A TRE DOWN
IN BALT CO. STILL WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO RCV MORE REPORTS AFTR
SUNRISE...BUT OVERALL THE BULLET WAS DODGED.

LOW PRES NOW OVR LAKE ERIE W/ AN ATTENDANT CD FNT MOVG INTO WRN
PA. THIS WL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE CWA TDA...MOVG OFFSHORE BY EARLY
EVE. THERE COULD BE SOME INSTABILITY DRIVEN SHOWERS THIS AFTN...W/
THE PSBLTY OF IN-CLD LTNG BUT NO SVR THREAT. AS HAS OFTEN BEEN THE
CASE THIS MONTH TEMPS WL TOP OUT BLO CLIMO NORMS - GNRLY LM80S...
U80S PSBL IN THE CITIES...MU70S IN THE MTNS. IN ADTN IT WL BECOME
BRZY AFTR MID MRNG IN THE POST FNTL AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

JUL IS WINDING DOWN...AND FOR THE E CST IT WL DO SO UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UNUSUALLY LARGE UPR LVL TROF. THIS WL KEEP TEMPS
BLO NRML. XPCT TO SEE CLDS BRK UP DURG EVE HRS...M CLR OVRNGT AND
DURG THE MRNG..THEN A CU FIELD DVLP DURG THE AFTN..ESPECIALLY OVR
THE MTNS AND CLOSE TO THE PA BRDR.

LOWS IN THE 50S...L60S IN THE CITIES AND ALONG THE BAY. HIGHS
75-80. AT A TIME OF THE YR WHERE HIGHS CAN REACH THE U90S (HIGH
TEMPS 7/29/2011: DCA 104..BWI 101..IAD 103...ALL RECORDS). HOPEFULLY
WE`LL ALL GET A CHC TO GET OUTSIDE AND ENJOY THE UPCOMING WX.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

MODELS INDICATE THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE BACK WEST OF
THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
RE-ESTABLISHES ITS HOLD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THE TROUGH
MOVES BACK/REDEVELOPS TO OUR WEST...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
INCREASING THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY AS WELL AS THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND
WOULD SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN GIVEN THE LONG AND
PERSISTENT TRAJECTORY OF WIND OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO RIDING ALONG
A STALLED OR SLOW-MOVING FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

AT 06Z VLIFR CONDS OCCURRING AT MRB. AS THE FNT DRAWS CLOSER THIS
SHOULD PROMOTE MIXING AND CONDS SHOULD BE IMPRVG BY SUNRISE.
ELSEWHERE CONDS ARE VFR. WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE FOR SOME AFTN
INSTABILITY RW TO DVLP. WINDS WL TURN TO THE NW W/ GUSTS OVR 20 KT
FM MID MRNG THRU LATE AFTN.

VFR CONDS XPCTD FOR MUCH OF THE WK AHD.

&&

.MARINE...

SCA WINDS XPCTD TDA - FOR THE RMNDR OF THE OVRNGT THRU MID MRNG
FOR THE LWR PTMC/WIDER PART OF THE CHES BAY...AND THEN FOR ALL OF
THE WATERS FOR THE LATE MRNG/AFTN AS A CD FNT MOVES THRU.

NO PROBS FORESEEN THEREAFTER THRU THU.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ530-531-535-536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ532>534-537-540-541-543.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/HTS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 280748
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
348 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. DRIER WEATHER WILL MOVE
IN BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FOR MIDWEEK...
BRINGING COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

RGN ESCAPED THE SVR THREAT SUN NGT - RCVD A REPORT OF A TRE DOWN
IN BALT CO. STILL WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO RCV MORE REPORTS AFTR
SUNRISE...BUT OVERALL THE BULLET WAS DODGED.

LOW PRES NOW OVR LAKE ERIE W/ AN ATTENDANT CD FNT MOVG INTO WRN
PA. THIS WL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE CWA TDA...MOVG OFFSHORE BY EARLY
EVE. THERE COULD BE SOME INSTABILITY DRIVEN SHOWERS THIS AFTN...W/
THE PSBLTY OF IN-CLD LTNG BUT NO SVR THREAT. AS HAS OFTEN BEEN THE
CASE THIS MONTH TEMPS WL TOP OUT BLO CLIMO NORMS - GNRLY LM80S...
U80S PSBL IN THE CITIES...MU70S IN THE MTNS. IN ADTN IT WL BECOME
BRZY AFTR MID MRNG IN THE POST FNTL AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

JUL IS WINDING DOWN...AND FOR THE E CST IT WL DO SO UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UNUSUALLY LARGE UPR LVL TROF. THIS WL KEEP TEMPS
BLO NRML. XPCT TO SEE CLDS BRK UP DURG EVE HRS...M CLR OVRNGT AND
DURG THE MRNG..THEN A CU FIELD DVLP DURG THE AFTN..ESPECIALLY OVR
THE MTNS AND CLOSE TO THE PA BRDR.

LOWS IN THE 50S...L60S IN THE CITIES AND ALONG THE BAY. HIGHS
75-80. AT A TIME OF THE YR WHERE HIGHS CAN REACH THE U90S (HIGH
TEMPS 7/29/2011: DCA 104..BWI 101..IAD 103...ALL RECORDS). HOPEFULLY
WE`LL ALL GET A CHC TO GET OUTSIDE AND ENJOY THE UPCOMING WX.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

MODELS INDICATE THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE BACK WEST OF
THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
RE-ESTABLISHES ITS HOLD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THE TROUGH
MOVES BACK/REDEVELOPS TO OUR WEST...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
INCREASING THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY AS WELL AS THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND
WOULD SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN GIVEN THE LONG AND
PERSISTENT TRAJECTORY OF WIND OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO RIDING ALONG
A STALLED OR SLOW-MOVING FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

AT 06Z VLIFR CONDS OCCURRING AT MRB. AS THE FNT DRAWS CLOSER THIS
SHOULD PROMOTE MIXING AND CONDS SHOULD BE IMPRVG BY SUNRISE.
ELSEWHERE CONDS ARE VFR. WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE FOR SOME AFTN
INSTABILITY RW TO DVLP. WINDS WL TURN TO THE NW W/ GUSTS OVR 20 KT
FM MID MRNG THRU LATE AFTN.

VFR CONDS XPCTD FOR MUCH OF THE WK AHD.

&&

.MARINE...

SCA WINDS XPCTD TDA - FOR THE RMNDR OF THE OVRNGT THRU MID MRNG
FOR THE LWR PTMC/WIDER PART OF THE CHES BAY...AND THEN FOR ALL OF
THE WATERS FOR THE LATE MRNG/AFTN AS A CD FNT MOVES THRU.

NO PROBS FORESEEN THEREAFTER THRU THU.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ530-531-535-536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ532>534-537-540-541-543.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/HTS








000
FXUS61 KRNK 280555
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
155 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THESE FEATURES MAY
TRIGGER STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY
TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY
MONDAY...RESULTING IN COOLER WEATHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT MONDAY...

CONVECTION APPROACHING FROM WEST VIRGINIA HAS WEAKENED OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS...AMOUNTING ONLY TO SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME.
SEE NO NEED TO PROLONG THE TORNADO WATCH...AND HAVE THEREFORE
CANCELLED IT EARLY FOR THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE THROUGH THE SHENANDOAH
VALLEY. ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR MODEL DATA WHICH APPEARS TO BE HANDLING THE
CURRENT RAINFALL VERY WELL. EXPECT ONLY SPOTTY UPSLOPE SHOWERS
SHOULD BE ALL THAT REMAIN BY SUNRISE.

LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE COLD FRONT IS SITUATED
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER...PROGRESSING A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. EXPECT THE FRONT TO ENTER OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA
COUNTIES BY AROUND 5 AM...AND THEN CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE
MORNING.

AS OF 200 PM EDT SUNDAY...

5H TROF CROSSES EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO
START BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROUNDING DOWN THE BACK OF THE COOL POOL MAY HELP
TO ENHANCE THE SHOWERS AS IT COINCIDES WITH THE COLDEST 85H TEMPS
AND MAX HEATING. THUS BOOSTED POPS WESTERN SLOPES TO A PERIOD OF
LOW LIKELYS MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A QUICK CUTOFF TO SHRA BLUE
RIDGE AND POINTS EAST WHERE DOWNSLOPING SHOULD ALLOW FOR LESS
CLOUDS. ODOR WILL BE A BREEZY AND COOL DAY FOR LATE JULY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 60S WHERE CLOUDS
PERSIST AND ALONG HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET WELL
INTO THE 80S UNDER DRY DOWNSLOPE PIEDMONT BUT ONLY 75-82 BLUE
RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT SATURDAY...

WEST TO NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE BLACKSBURG
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS SERIES OF WEAK SHORT
WAVE TROFS EMBEDDED IN UPPER FLOW HELP ANCHOR PIN-WHEELING UPPER
TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

COOLER AIR ALOFT...WEAK FORCING FROM INITIAL SHORT WAVE...AND WEAK
UPSLOPING MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE WESTERN FLANKS OF THE APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY NIGHT...AND PERHAPS
DIURNALLY DRIVEN EVEN INTO TUESDAY.  HOWEVER...DESPITE ADDITIONAL
WEAK STREAM ENERGY...ARRIVAL OF SURFACE RIDGE AND AMPLIFICATION OF
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO LIMIT THREAT FOR ANY
ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

UPSLOPING CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST SHOULD MAINTAIN UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NOT LIKELY TO
CLIMB OUT OF THE 60S ON EITHER TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...ANY INFLUENCE OF COLD
ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET BY DOWNSLOPING/COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND
GOOD INSOLATION SUCH THAT HIGHS REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S...YET STILL ~5F LOWER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.

NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE LARGELY GOVERNED BY EXTENT OF MIXING AND
CLOUD COVER. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE/IF CLOUDS CAN CLEAR...AND
ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING WILL
MORE READILY OCCUR...SHOULD EXPERIENCE AT LEAST SPOTTY READINGS DOWN
INTO THE 40S. READINGS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL BE A BIT
MILDER...MAINLY 50S...YET STILL 5-10F BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A SURFACE HIGH THURSDAY OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN WILL SHIFT EAST
TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AT THE MID LEVELS A
PERSISTENT TROUGH IS SET UP OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN US. THURSDAY LACKS LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE SO EXPECT
THE DAY TO BE DRY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE FOR FRIDAY AND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES PIVOT ACROSS
THE REGION AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING AND TAPER OFF TO
JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING. FOCUS OF THE HIGHEST
CHANCE POPS ARE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE WILL
BE LOCATED...WITH LOWER CHANCE POPS OUT EAST.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH 850MB TEMPS
AROUND +16C. THIS WILL CORRESPOND TO SURFACE HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID
80S OUT EAST AND NEAR 80 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST ON FRIDAY THE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM N/NW TO AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION. THIS WILL WEDGE THE AREA IN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. WITH THE INCREASED LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. THIS ALONG WITH EXPECTED SCATTERED PRECIP AND 850MB
TEMPS FALLING TO +11-14C...SURFACE HIGH TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM EDT MONDAY...

KEEPING AN EYE ON THE LAST OF THE CONVECTION ENTERING THE MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE THIS MORNING...BREAKING UP AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE DOWNSLOPE
EAST OF THE HIGHEST RIDGES. MAY SEE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AT BLF AS
SHOWERS PASS...DRAWING STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO THE SURFACE.
SHOWERS WILL EXIT BY 08Z...AND EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT
THEREAFTER ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES.

THE COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS WV AND WILL ENTER THE
VICINITY OF KLWB/KBLF BY AROUND 09Z...AND PROGRESS EAST QUICKLY
THROUGH THE MORNING. WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS FOR KROA/KLYH/KDAN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHILE
LINGERING STRATOCU WILL RESULT IN PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS FOR A FEW
HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE FOR KBCB/KLWB/KBLF.

THROUGH THE DAY...ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROF WILL
COMBINE WITH UPSLOPE AND INSTABILITY BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AND STEEPISH LAPSE RATES AS SEEN ON MODEL SOUNDINGS TO
SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES AT KLWB AND KBLF BY LATE AFTERNOON.
WINDS LOOK TO BE GUSTY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE TAF AS 850MB
FLOW IS ZIPPING ALONG AND DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER SHOULD BE
EFFICIENT TO MIX IT DOWN AFTER DAYBREAK. THE LATTER PORTION OF THE
TAF PERIOD LOOKS QUIET WITH VFR EAST OF THE RIDGE AND MVFR WEST
AND WINDS SETTLE DOWN TOWARD EVENING BEFORE DECOUPLING.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FOR TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WILL BRING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT LATE NIGHT FOG AT KBCB/KLWB...
ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVELS MAY STAY DRY ENOUGH FOR LESS FOG COVERAGE.

VARIABLE CIGS EXPECTED UNDER ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW THROUGHOUT THE
REST OF THE WEEK. A FEW -SHRA NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION
ACROSS EASTERN WV...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. TYPICAL FOG
POTENTIAL LESS THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK BECAUSE OF TURBULENT MIXING AND PREVAILING CYCLONIC FLOW.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE UPPER LOW RETROGRADES JUST
WEST OF THE REGION...INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA BUT MAINLY
SW OF THE TAF SITES INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE WEATHER RADIO AT HINTON WEST VA TRANSMITTING ON FREQUENCY
162.425 MHZ REMAINS OFF THE AIR LIKELY DUE TO PHONE LINE PROBLEMS.
RESTORATION OF SERVICE IS NOT EXPECTED BEFORE NOON ON MONDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...JH/RAB
SHORT TERM...WERT
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...MBS/NF
EQUIPMENT...JH



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280543
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
143 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY MONDAY...THEN STALLS OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATED SFC COLD FRONT WELL OFF TO OUR WEST FROM
WESTERN LAKE ERIE EXTENDING SW DOWN THROUGH OHIO AND INTO KENTUCKY.
FLOW ALOFT IS WESTERLY. AKQ VAD WIND PROFILE AND 00Z AREA SOUNDINGS
SHOWS STRONG WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH MOST OF THE ATMOSPHERE FROM 900
MB ON UP...WHICH DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR BULK OF PRECIP HOLDING
TOGETHER THIS SIDE OF THE MTNS OVERNIGHT.

OVERALL...SEVERE THREAT (AND CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP) IS
WANING FOR THE AKQ CWA. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA FROM ABOUT 11 PM THROUGH 3 AM...BASED
ON AREA OF STORMS SEEN ON RADAR AND IR SATELLITE OVER THE NORTHERN
1/2 OF WV MOVING FROM WNW TO ESE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS. WILL
CARRY 50-60% POPS ACRS THE FAR NORTH FOR THESE AREAS. ELSEWHERE...LARGE
AREA OF CONVECTION IN NC WILL MISS MOST OF THE CWA TO THE SOUTH
PER CURRENT STORM MOTION/CORFIDI VECTORS. HAVE DROPPED POPS OFF TO
AROUND 40% FOR MOST OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC (WAS GOING TO DROP
IT EVEN FURTHER BUT GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
SOME NEW ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN WV/ERN KY WILL MAINTAIN
THESE 40% POPS. WHILE SHEAR REMAINS IMPRESSIVE OVERNIGHT...INSTABILITY
WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND WITH DOUBTS DEVELOPING AS TO PRECIP
COVERAGE...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST. WILL CONTINUE WITH
HWO MENTION OF POSSIBLE STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAINLY FOR
DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN THAT THERE WILL BE STRONG WINDS NOT FAR OFF
THE SFC. LOWS IN THE U60S NW TO THE LWR-MID 70S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONT / LEADING TROF PROGGED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST MONDAY MORN...
TAKING MOST IF NOT ALL PCPN WITH IT. THIS ENDS ANY SVR THREAT ACROSS
THE AREA. GIVEN LINGERING UPR LVL NRGY & MSTR...KEPT LOW CHC POPS
FAR EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH A PERIOD
OF NO POPS FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTN...FOLLOWED BY 20%/SLIGHT
CHC POPS MAINLY ALONG IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS DRNG THE MID-LATE
AFTN. GIVEN INCREASING AMTS OF AFTRN SUN & A DOWNSLOPING WEST
WIND...TMPS XPCTD TO WARM INTO THE U80S-L90S.

MODELS DVLP SCT CONVECTION ALONG THE STALLED FRNTL MON EVENING SO
HAVE CONFINED LOW CHC POPS TO COUNTIES BORDERING ALBEMARLE SND.
OTW...PT CLDY & COOLER. WEAK CAA SEEN AS WINDS BECOME NORTH. LOWS
IN THE 60S.

UPR LVL COOL POOL WILL COMBINE WITH DYTME HTNG AND LINGERING
TROFINESS OVR THE FA FOR ISLTD POPS TUE AFTRN. CAPPED POPS AT 20%
FOR NOW. PT SUNNY WITH BLO NRML TMPS. HIGHS IN THE L80S XCPT U70S
AT THE BEACHES. M CLR TO PT CLDY TUE NITE AND RTHR COMFY FOR LATE
JULY. LOWS M50S-M60S.

MSTLY SUNNY WITH BLO NRML TMPS WED AS HIGH PRS BUILDS OVR THE RGN.
HIGHS L-M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF OVR THE MID ATLC REGION WED NGT...WILL
RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND DEEPEN THU THRU SUN.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING OFF THE MID ATLC CST WED NGT INTO
FRI...WILL DRIFT BACK TWD THE CST LATE FRI THRU SUN. FOR NOW...WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR WED NGT INTO FRI...THEN INCREASE TO SLGT CHC
OR CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT THRU SUN. STILL FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WED NGT
AND THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY/LO LVL MOIST RETURNS
FOR FRI THRU SUN. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID
80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S
THU MORNG...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI MORNG...RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT
MORNG...AND RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SUN MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DP LYRD WSW FLO OVR THE MDATLC RGN RESULTING IN ANY CONVECTION
EXITING THE MTNS THE PAST FEW HR TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES E TWD
THE CSTL PLAIN. NOT RULING OUT ISOLD SHRA/TSTM THROUGH EARLY/MID
MRNG E OF THE MTNS (MAYBE AGN LT AFTN/EARLY EVE FAR SE VA/CSTL NE
NC)...THOUGH PCPN CHCS LWRG. VFR CONDS XPCD THROUGH TDA...GUSTY W
WNDS TO ABT 25 KT W/ LIMITED CLDNS. SFC CDFNT TO BE OFF THE CST BY
TNGT RESULTING IN WIND SHIFT TO NNW FOR TNGT/TUE...ALG W/ ONLY SCT
CLDNS (CONTD VFR CONDS).

DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST MIDWEEK. SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG IS PSBL
NR SUNRISE BUT WIDESPREAD IFR NOT XPCD AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TNGT THRU TUE. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA FM THE NW THIS EVENG...THEN CROSSES THE WTRS AND
OFF THE CST MON INTO MON NGT. SSW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT THRU TNGT. WINDS
WILL TURN TO THE W DURING MON...THEN NW AND N MON NGT INTO TUE MRNG.
NNE WINDS 15 KT OR LESS EXPECTED TUE THRU WED. SE OR E WINDS 10 KT
OR LESS WED NGT THRU THU NGT...BEFORE BECOMING NE AGAIN ON FRI.
WAVES 1 TO 3 FT...AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...TMG















000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280543
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
143 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY MONDAY...THEN STALLS OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATED SFC COLD FRONT WELL OFF TO OUR WEST FROM
WESTERN LAKE ERIE EXTENDING SW DOWN THROUGH OHIO AND INTO KENTUCKY.
FLOW ALOFT IS WESTERLY. AKQ VAD WIND PROFILE AND 00Z AREA SOUNDINGS
SHOWS STRONG WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH MOST OF THE ATMOSPHERE FROM 900
MB ON UP...WHICH DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR BULK OF PRECIP HOLDING
TOGETHER THIS SIDE OF THE MTNS OVERNIGHT.

OVERALL...SEVERE THREAT (AND CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP) IS
WANING FOR THE AKQ CWA. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA FROM ABOUT 11 PM THROUGH 3 AM...BASED
ON AREA OF STORMS SEEN ON RADAR AND IR SATELLITE OVER THE NORTHERN
1/2 OF WV MOVING FROM WNW TO ESE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS. WILL
CARRY 50-60% POPS ACRS THE FAR NORTH FOR THESE AREAS. ELSEWHERE...LARGE
AREA OF CONVECTION IN NC WILL MISS MOST OF THE CWA TO THE SOUTH
PER CURRENT STORM MOTION/CORFIDI VECTORS. HAVE DROPPED POPS OFF TO
AROUND 40% FOR MOST OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC (WAS GOING TO DROP
IT EVEN FURTHER BUT GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
SOME NEW ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN WV/ERN KY WILL MAINTAIN
THESE 40% POPS. WHILE SHEAR REMAINS IMPRESSIVE OVERNIGHT...INSTABILITY
WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND WITH DOUBTS DEVELOPING AS TO PRECIP
COVERAGE...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST. WILL CONTINUE WITH
HWO MENTION OF POSSIBLE STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAINLY FOR
DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN THAT THERE WILL BE STRONG WINDS NOT FAR OFF
THE SFC. LOWS IN THE U60S NW TO THE LWR-MID 70S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONT / LEADING TROF PROGGED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST MONDAY MORN...
TAKING MOST IF NOT ALL PCPN WITH IT. THIS ENDS ANY SVR THREAT ACROSS
THE AREA. GIVEN LINGERING UPR LVL NRGY & MSTR...KEPT LOW CHC POPS
FAR EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH A PERIOD
OF NO POPS FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTN...FOLLOWED BY 20%/SLIGHT
CHC POPS MAINLY ALONG IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS DRNG THE MID-LATE
AFTN. GIVEN INCREASING AMTS OF AFTRN SUN & A DOWNSLOPING WEST
WIND...TMPS XPCTD TO WARM INTO THE U80S-L90S.

MODELS DVLP SCT CONVECTION ALONG THE STALLED FRNTL MON EVENING SO
HAVE CONFINED LOW CHC POPS TO COUNTIES BORDERING ALBEMARLE SND.
OTW...PT CLDY & COOLER. WEAK CAA SEEN AS WINDS BECOME NORTH. LOWS
IN THE 60S.

UPR LVL COOL POOL WILL COMBINE WITH DYTME HTNG AND LINGERING
TROFINESS OVR THE FA FOR ISLTD POPS TUE AFTRN. CAPPED POPS AT 20%
FOR NOW. PT SUNNY WITH BLO NRML TMPS. HIGHS IN THE L80S XCPT U70S
AT THE BEACHES. M CLR TO PT CLDY TUE NITE AND RTHR COMFY FOR LATE
JULY. LOWS M50S-M60S.

MSTLY SUNNY WITH BLO NRML TMPS WED AS HIGH PRS BUILDS OVR THE RGN.
HIGHS L-M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF OVR THE MID ATLC REGION WED NGT...WILL
RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND DEEPEN THU THRU SUN.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING OFF THE MID ATLC CST WED NGT INTO
FRI...WILL DRIFT BACK TWD THE CST LATE FRI THRU SUN. FOR NOW...WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR WED NGT INTO FRI...THEN INCREASE TO SLGT CHC
OR CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT THRU SUN. STILL FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WED NGT
AND THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY/LO LVL MOIST RETURNS
FOR FRI THRU SUN. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID
80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S
THU MORNG...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI MORNG...RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT
MORNG...AND RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SUN MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DP LYRD WSW FLO OVR THE MDATLC RGN RESULTING IN ANY CONVECTION
EXITING THE MTNS THE PAST FEW HR TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES E TWD
THE CSTL PLAIN. NOT RULING OUT ISOLD SHRA/TSTM THROUGH EARLY/MID
MRNG E OF THE MTNS (MAYBE AGN LT AFTN/EARLY EVE FAR SE VA/CSTL NE
NC)...THOUGH PCPN CHCS LWRG. VFR CONDS XPCD THROUGH TDA...GUSTY W
WNDS TO ABT 25 KT W/ LIMITED CLDNS. SFC CDFNT TO BE OFF THE CST BY
TNGT RESULTING IN WIND SHIFT TO NNW FOR TNGT/TUE...ALG W/ ONLY SCT
CLDNS (CONTD VFR CONDS).

DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST MIDWEEK. SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG IS PSBL
NR SUNRISE BUT WIDESPREAD IFR NOT XPCD AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TNGT THRU TUE. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA FM THE NW THIS EVENG...THEN CROSSES THE WTRS AND
OFF THE CST MON INTO MON NGT. SSW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT THRU TNGT. WINDS
WILL TURN TO THE W DURING MON...THEN NW AND N MON NGT INTO TUE MRNG.
NNE WINDS 15 KT OR LESS EXPECTED TUE THRU WED. SE OR E WINDS 10 KT
OR LESS WED NGT THRU THU NGT...BEFORE BECOMING NE AGAIN ON FRI.
WAVES 1 TO 3 FT...AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...TMG
















000
FXUS61 KRNK 280523
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
123 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THESE FEATURES MAY
TRIGGER STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY
TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY
MONDAY...RESULTING IN COOLER WEATHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT MONDAY...

CONVECTION APPROACHING FROM WEST VIRGINIA HAS WEAKENED OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS...AMOUNTING ONLY TO SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME.
SEE NO NEED TO PROLONG THE TORNADO WATCH...AND HAVE THEREFORE
CANCELLED IT EARLY FOR THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE THROUGH THE SHENANDOAH
VALLEY. ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR MODEL DATA WHICH APPEARS TO BE HANDLING THE
CURRENT RAINFALL VERY WELL. EXPECT ONLY SPOTTY UPSLOPE SHOWERS
SHOULD BE ALL THAT REMAIN BY SUNRISE.

LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE COLD FRONT IS SITUATED
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER...PROGRESSING A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. EXPECT THE FRONT TO ENTER OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA
COUNTIES BY AROUND 5 AM...AND THEN CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE
MORNING.

AS OF 200 PM EDT SUNDAY...

5H TROF CROSSES EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO
START BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROUNDING DOWN THE BACK OF THE COOL POOL MAY HELP
TO ENHANCE THE SHOWERS AS IT COINCIDES WITH THE COLDEST 85H TEMPS
AND MAX HEATING. THUS BOOSTED POPS WESTERN SLOPES TO A PERIOD OF
LOW LIKELYS MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A QUICK CUTOFF TO SHRA BLUE
RIDGE AND POINTS EAST WHERE DOWNSLOPING SHOULD ALLOW FOR LESS
CLOUDS. ODOR WILL BE A BREEZY AND COOL DAY FOR LATE JULY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 60S WHERE CLOUDS
PERSIST AND ALONG HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET WELL
INTO THE 80S UNDER DRY DOWNSLOPE PIEDMONT BUT ONLY 75-82 BLUE
RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT SATURDAY...

WEST TO NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE BLACKSBURG
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS SERIES OF WEAK SHORT
WAVE TROFS EMBEDDED IN UPPER FLOW HELP ANCHOR PIN-WHEELING UPPER
TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

COOLER AIR ALOFT...WEAK FORCING FROM INITIAL SHORT WAVE...AND WEAK
UPSLOPING MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE WESTERN FLANKS OF THE APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY NIGHT...AND PERHAPS
DIURNALLY DRIVEN EVEN INTO TUESDAY.  HOWEVER...DESPITE ADDITIONAL
WEAK STREAM ENERGY...ARRIVAL OF SURFACE RIDGE AND AMPLIFICATION OF
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO LIMIT THREAT FOR ANY
ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

UPSLOPING CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST SHOULD MAINTAIN UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NOT LIKELY TO
CLIMB OUT OF THE 60S ON EITHER TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...ANY INFLUENCE OF COLD
ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET BY DOWNSLOPING/COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND
GOOD INSOLATION SUCH THAT HIGHS REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S...YET STILL ~5F LOWER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.

NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE LARGELY GOVERNED BY EXTENT OF MIXING AND
CLOUD COVER. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE/IF CLOUDS CAN CLEAR...AND
ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING WILL
MORE READILY OCCUR...SHOULD EXPERIENCE AT LEAST SPOTTY READINGS DOWN
INTO THE 40S. READINGS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL BE A BIT
MILDER...MAINLY 50S...YET STILL 5-10F BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A SURFACE HIGH THURSDAY OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN WILL SHIFT EAST
TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AT THE MID LEVELS A
PERSISTENT TROUGH IS SET UP OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN US. THURSDAY LACKS LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE SO EXPECT
THE DAY TO BE DRY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE FOR FRIDAY AND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES PIVOT ACROSS
THE REGION AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING AND TAPER OFF TO
JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING. FOCUS OF THE HIGHEST
CHANCE POPS ARE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE WILL
BE LOCATED...WITH LOWER CHANCE POPS OUT EAST.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH 850MB TEMPS
AROUND +16C. THIS WILL CORRESPOND TO SURFACE HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID
80S OUT EAST AND NEAR 80 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST ON FRIDAY THE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM N/NW TO AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION. THIS WILL WEDGE THE AREA IN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. WITH THE INCREASED LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. THIS ALONG WITH EXPECTED SCATTERED PRECIP AND 850MB
TEMPS FALLING TO +11-14C...SURFACE HIGH TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT SUNDAY...

STILL AWAITING POTENTIAL ARRIVAL OF MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
INTO THE CWA AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES WITH STRONG STORMS STILL
POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN AREAS OF BETTER INSTABILITY/HEATING ACROSS
SOUTHSIDE/PIEDMONT. THIS COULD IMPACT ROA/LYH/DAN IN THE 02Z-06Z
TIME FRAME...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW AS CIRRUS
SHIELD FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION AND MORNING ACTIVITY HAS
ESSENTIALLY PUT A LID ON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THIS POINT ACROSS
MOST OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. OF GREATER LIKELIHOOD IS
THAT A LINE OF MOST LIKELY SUB SEVERE SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT/UPPER TROUGH AS ITS SWINGS RAPIDLY THROUGH THE CWA
IN THE 04Z-08Z TIME FRAME. GIVEN THAT THERE WILL BE A LARGE
UPSLOPE COMPONENT AT THAT TIME...EXPECT THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF
SHRA/TSRA TO BE ACROSS THE WV COUNTIES...BUT ENOUGH DYNAMICS TO
SUPPORT MENTION OF SHRA EASTWARD EVEN INTO THE PIEDMONT. MOST
LIKELY THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR CIGS LWB-BLF...TO LOW END
VFR CIGS FURTHER EASTWARD. ALL PCPN SHOULD BE ENDING BY 10Z
MON...BUT EXTENSIVE UPSLOPE SC WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT WV MON
WITH A WINTERLIKE SETUP AND STRONG NW FLOW AND STRONG CAA. EXPECT
MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL ALL DAY LWB-BLF...AND POTENTIALLY EVEN BCB AT
TIMES. FURTHER EAST...CLOUDS SHOULD SCT OUT AND CIGS WILL BE
MOSTLY VFR. VSBYS MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE ISOLD MVFR IN TIME AND
LOCATION DURING SHRA/TSRA. MAIN CONCERN AFT 06Z AND THROUGH THE
DAY MON WILL BE STRONG NW WINDS AT SPEEDS OF 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS
25-30KTS...ESPECIALLY AFT 14Z MON. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR
THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN TSRA POTENTIAL THROUGH 10Z MON.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FOR TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
LATE NIGHT FOG KBCB/KLWB ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVELS MAY STAY DRY
ENOUGH FOR LESS FOG COVERAGE.

VARIABLE CIGS EXPECTED UNDER ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW THROUGHOUT THE
REST OF THE WEEK. A FEW -SHRA NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION
ACROSS EASTERN WV...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. TYPICAL FOG
POTENTIAL LESS THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK BECAUSE OF TURBULENT MIXING AND PREVAILING CYCLONIC FLOW.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE UPPER LOW RETROGRADES JUST
WEST OF THE REGION...INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA BUT MAINLY
SW OF THE TAF SITES INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE WEATHER RADIO AT HINTON WEST VA TRANSMITTING ON FREQUENCY
162.425 MHZ REMAINS OFF THE AIR LIKELY DUE TO PHONE LINE PROBLEMS.
RESTORATION OF SERVICE IS NOT EXPECTED BEFORE NOON ON MONDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...JH/RAB
SHORT TERM...WERT
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...JH/RAB
EQUIPMENT...JH



000
FXUS61 KRNK 280523
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
123 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THESE FEATURES MAY
TRIGGER STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY
TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY
MONDAY...RESULTING IN COOLER WEATHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT MONDAY...

CONVECTION APPROACHING FROM WEST VIRGINIA HAS WEAKENED OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS...AMOUNTING ONLY TO SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME.
SEE NO NEED TO PROLONG THE TORNADO WATCH...AND HAVE THEREFORE
CANCELLED IT EARLY FOR THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE THROUGH THE SHENANDOAH
VALLEY. ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR MODEL DATA WHICH APPEARS TO BE HANDLING THE
CURRENT RAINFALL VERY WELL. EXPECT ONLY SPOTTY UPSLOPE SHOWERS
SHOULD BE ALL THAT REMAIN BY SUNRISE.

LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE COLD FRONT IS SITUATED
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER...PROGRESSING A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. EXPECT THE FRONT TO ENTER OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA
COUNTIES BY AROUND 5 AM...AND THEN CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE
MORNING.

AS OF 200 PM EDT SUNDAY...

5H TROF CROSSES EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO
START BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROUNDING DOWN THE BACK OF THE COOL POOL MAY HELP
TO ENHANCE THE SHOWERS AS IT COINCIDES WITH THE COLDEST 85H TEMPS
AND MAX HEATING. THUS BOOSTED POPS WESTERN SLOPES TO A PERIOD OF
LOW LIKELYS MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A QUICK CUTOFF TO SHRA BLUE
RIDGE AND POINTS EAST WHERE DOWNSLOPING SHOULD ALLOW FOR LESS
CLOUDS. ODOR WILL BE A BREEZY AND COOL DAY FOR LATE JULY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 60S WHERE CLOUDS
PERSIST AND ALONG HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET WELL
INTO THE 80S UNDER DRY DOWNSLOPE PIEDMONT BUT ONLY 75-82 BLUE
RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT SATURDAY...

WEST TO NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE BLACKSBURG
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS SERIES OF WEAK SHORT
WAVE TROFS EMBEDDED IN UPPER FLOW HELP ANCHOR PIN-WHEELING UPPER
TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

COOLER AIR ALOFT...WEAK FORCING FROM INITIAL SHORT WAVE...AND WEAK
UPSLOPING MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE WESTERN FLANKS OF THE APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY NIGHT...AND PERHAPS
DIURNALLY DRIVEN EVEN INTO TUESDAY.  HOWEVER...DESPITE ADDITIONAL
WEAK STREAM ENERGY...ARRIVAL OF SURFACE RIDGE AND AMPLIFICATION OF
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO LIMIT THREAT FOR ANY
ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

UPSLOPING CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST SHOULD MAINTAIN UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NOT LIKELY TO
CLIMB OUT OF THE 60S ON EITHER TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...ANY INFLUENCE OF COLD
ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET BY DOWNSLOPING/COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND
GOOD INSOLATION SUCH THAT HIGHS REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S...YET STILL ~5F LOWER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.

NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE LARGELY GOVERNED BY EXTENT OF MIXING AND
CLOUD COVER. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE/IF CLOUDS CAN CLEAR...AND
ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING WILL
MORE READILY OCCUR...SHOULD EXPERIENCE AT LEAST SPOTTY READINGS DOWN
INTO THE 40S. READINGS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL BE A BIT
MILDER...MAINLY 50S...YET STILL 5-10F BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A SURFACE HIGH THURSDAY OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN WILL SHIFT EAST
TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AT THE MID LEVELS A
PERSISTENT TROUGH IS SET UP OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN US. THURSDAY LACKS LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE SO EXPECT
THE DAY TO BE DRY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE FOR FRIDAY AND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES PIVOT ACROSS
THE REGION AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING AND TAPER OFF TO
JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING. FOCUS OF THE HIGHEST
CHANCE POPS ARE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE WILL
BE LOCATED...WITH LOWER CHANCE POPS OUT EAST.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH 850MB TEMPS
AROUND +16C. THIS WILL CORRESPOND TO SURFACE HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID
80S OUT EAST AND NEAR 80 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST ON FRIDAY THE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM N/NW TO AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION. THIS WILL WEDGE THE AREA IN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. WITH THE INCREASED LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. THIS ALONG WITH EXPECTED SCATTERED PRECIP AND 850MB
TEMPS FALLING TO +11-14C...SURFACE HIGH TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT SUNDAY...

STILL AWAITING POTENTIAL ARRIVAL OF MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
INTO THE CWA AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES WITH STRONG STORMS STILL
POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN AREAS OF BETTER INSTABILITY/HEATING ACROSS
SOUTHSIDE/PIEDMONT. THIS COULD IMPACT ROA/LYH/DAN IN THE 02Z-06Z
TIME FRAME...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW AS CIRRUS
SHIELD FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION AND MORNING ACTIVITY HAS
ESSENTIALLY PUT A LID ON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THIS POINT ACROSS
MOST OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. OF GREATER LIKELIHOOD IS
THAT A LINE OF MOST LIKELY SUB SEVERE SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT/UPPER TROUGH AS ITS SWINGS RAPIDLY THROUGH THE CWA
IN THE 04Z-08Z TIME FRAME. GIVEN THAT THERE WILL BE A LARGE
UPSLOPE COMPONENT AT THAT TIME...EXPECT THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF
SHRA/TSRA TO BE ACROSS THE WV COUNTIES...BUT ENOUGH DYNAMICS TO
SUPPORT MENTION OF SHRA EASTWARD EVEN INTO THE PIEDMONT. MOST
LIKELY THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR CIGS LWB-BLF...TO LOW END
VFR CIGS FURTHER EASTWARD. ALL PCPN SHOULD BE ENDING BY 10Z
MON...BUT EXTENSIVE UPSLOPE SC WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT WV MON
WITH A WINTERLIKE SETUP AND STRONG NW FLOW AND STRONG CAA. EXPECT
MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL ALL DAY LWB-BLF...AND POTENTIALLY EVEN BCB AT
TIMES. FURTHER EAST...CLOUDS SHOULD SCT OUT AND CIGS WILL BE
MOSTLY VFR. VSBYS MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE ISOLD MVFR IN TIME AND
LOCATION DURING SHRA/TSRA. MAIN CONCERN AFT 06Z AND THROUGH THE
DAY MON WILL BE STRONG NW WINDS AT SPEEDS OF 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS
25-30KTS...ESPECIALLY AFT 14Z MON. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR
THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN TSRA POTENTIAL THROUGH 10Z MON.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FOR TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
LATE NIGHT FOG KBCB/KLWB ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVELS MAY STAY DRY
ENOUGH FOR LESS FOG COVERAGE.

VARIABLE CIGS EXPECTED UNDER ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW THROUGHOUT THE
REST OF THE WEEK. A FEW -SHRA NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION
ACROSS EASTERN WV...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. TYPICAL FOG
POTENTIAL LESS THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK BECAUSE OF TURBULENT MIXING AND PREVAILING CYCLONIC FLOW.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE UPPER LOW RETROGRADES JUST
WEST OF THE REGION...INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA BUT MAINLY
SW OF THE TAF SITES INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE WEATHER RADIO AT HINTON WEST VA TRANSMITTING ON FREQUENCY
162.425 MHZ REMAINS OFF THE AIR LIKELY DUE TO PHONE LINE PROBLEMS.
RESTORATION OF SERVICE IS NOT EXPECTED BEFORE NOON ON MONDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...JH/RAB
SHORT TERM...WERT
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...JH/RAB
EQUIPMENT...JH




000
FXUS61 KLWX 280451
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1251 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IS POSITIONED OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WITH AN ASOCIATED COLD
FRONT ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

AFTR CONSULTATION W/ SPC THE TOR WTCH HAS BEEN DROPPED FOR THE SRN
PART OF OUR FCST AREA.

COLD FRONT LIKELY WON/T MAKE IT INTO THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

THE TROUGH WILL BE OVER NY MONDAY WHILE THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST. AS ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MONDAY
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY I-66
AND NORTH MONDAY AFTERNOON. NW WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

FCST MIN TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE HIGHLANDS
TO THE LOW 60S NEAR THE METROS AND WATERS. NRLY WINDS WIL CONTINUE
TUESDAY AND TEMPS WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S WHICH WILL FEEL
LIKE A FALL DAY FOR THE MID-ATLATNIC.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

MEAN TROUGHING WILL PERSIST ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. DRY AIR AND NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY AND COOLER
THAN NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD.

MODELS INDICATE THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE BACK WEST OF
THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
RE-ESTABLISHES ITS HOLD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THE TROUGH
MOVES BACK/REDEVELOPS TO OUR WEST...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
INCREASING THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY AS WELL AS THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND
WOULD SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN GIVEN THE LONG AND
PERSISTENT TRAJECTORY OF WIND OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO RIDING ALONG
A STALLED OR SLOW-MOVING FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

TSTMS HV WEAKENED. CD FNT IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED W.V. AND WL MOVE
THRU THE MID ATLC STATES DURG THE MRNG HRS.

SHRA AND -TSRA POSSIBLE MONDAY AS ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
NW WINDS AROUND 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS EXPECTED AT THE
TERMINALS.

NW FLOW GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS W/ VFR TUE-THU.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY CHANNELLING WILL LIKELY SUPPORT OCCASIONAL SCA GUSTS ON THE
BAY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME NWLY MONDAY BEHIND A
COLD FRONT. AN SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE WATERS MONDAY.

RELATIVELY BENIGN SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
NEARBY OR OVERHEAD TUE NIGHT-FRI IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS. WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE NEXT
WEEKEND...POSSIBLY TO SCA LEVELS BUT THAT IS UNCLEAR THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOMALIES HAVE DECREASED TO AROUND 1/2 FT ON THE WESTERN SHORE OF
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. AT HIGH TIDE...WATER LEVELS WOULD REMAIN BELOW
MINOR TIDAL FLOOD THRESHOLDS WITH THESE ANOMALIES.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ530-531-535-536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ532>534-537-540-541-543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...BPP/HAS/DFH








000
FXUS61 KLWX 280451
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1251 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IS POSITIONED OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WITH AN ASOCIATED COLD
FRONT ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

AFTR CONSULTATION W/ SPC THE TOR WTCH HAS BEEN DROPPED FOR THE SRN
PART OF OUR FCST AREA.

COLD FRONT LIKELY WON/T MAKE IT INTO THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

THE TROUGH WILL BE OVER NY MONDAY WHILE THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST. AS ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MONDAY
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY I-66
AND NORTH MONDAY AFTERNOON. NW WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

FCST MIN TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE HIGHLANDS
TO THE LOW 60S NEAR THE METROS AND WATERS. NRLY WINDS WIL CONTINUE
TUESDAY AND TEMPS WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S WHICH WILL FEEL
LIKE A FALL DAY FOR THE MID-ATLATNIC.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

MEAN TROUGHING WILL PERSIST ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. DRY AIR AND NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY AND COOLER
THAN NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD.

MODELS INDICATE THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE BACK WEST OF
THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
RE-ESTABLISHES ITS HOLD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THE TROUGH
MOVES BACK/REDEVELOPS TO OUR WEST...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
INCREASING THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY AS WELL AS THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND
WOULD SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN GIVEN THE LONG AND
PERSISTENT TRAJECTORY OF WIND OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO RIDING ALONG
A STALLED OR SLOW-MOVING FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

TSTMS HV WEAKENED. CD FNT IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED W.V. AND WL MOVE
THRU THE MID ATLC STATES DURG THE MRNG HRS.

SHRA AND -TSRA POSSIBLE MONDAY AS ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
NW WINDS AROUND 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS EXPECTED AT THE
TERMINALS.

NW FLOW GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS W/ VFR TUE-THU.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY CHANNELLING WILL LIKELY SUPPORT OCCASIONAL SCA GUSTS ON THE
BAY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME NWLY MONDAY BEHIND A
COLD FRONT. AN SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE WATERS MONDAY.

RELATIVELY BENIGN SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
NEARBY OR OVERHEAD TUE NIGHT-FRI IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS. WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE NEXT
WEEKEND...POSSIBLY TO SCA LEVELS BUT THAT IS UNCLEAR THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOMALIES HAVE DECREASED TO AROUND 1/2 FT ON THE WESTERN SHORE OF
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. AT HIGH TIDE...WATER LEVELS WOULD REMAIN BELOW
MINOR TIDAL FLOOD THRESHOLDS WITH THESE ANOMALIES.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ530-531-535-536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ532>534-537-540-541-543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...BPP/HAS/DFH









000
FXUS61 KLWX 280324
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1124 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HAVE CANCELLED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH GIVEN RADAR TRENDS WITHIN
THIS AREA. WILL CONTINUE THE TORNADO WATCH FOR NOW GIVEN UPSTREAM
CONVECTION IN WV AND GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF DECENT SHEAR IN THIS
AREA.

PREV...

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO MOVE INTO/DEVELOP ACROSS THE
CWA THAN SOME GUIDANCE HAD EARLIER SUGGESTED. HAVE HAD ONE CELL IN
WV /IN THE WATCH AREA/ THAT WE HAVE WARNED ON AND THAT HAS BEEN
THE STRONGEST CELL WITHIN OUR CWA THUS FAR.

18Z KIAD RAOB REVEALED A CAP ACROSS THE CWA /AND SOME DRY AIR TOO/...BUT
THAT CAP HAD DISAPPEARED BASED ON THE 00Z KIAD RAOB. DESPITE THE
SETTING OF THE SUN...EXPECTATION IS FOR AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION
DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING AS LARGER SCALE LIFT AND SHEAR
INCREASE. WITH THIS...THE SEVERE RISK WILL CONTINUE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA AND COULD ALSO EVENTUALLY SPREAD FURTHER DOWNSTREAM OF
THE CURRENT WATCH EARLY TONIGHT.

ACTUAL COLD FRONT LIKELY WON/T MAKE IT INTO THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE TROUGH WILL BE OVER NY MONDAY AND WHILE THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST. AS ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
MONDAY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
I-66 AND NORTH MONDAY AFTERNOON. NW WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

FCST MIN TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE HIGHLANDS
TO THE LOW 60S NEAR THE METROS AND WATERS. NRLY WINDS WIL CONTINUE
TUESDAY AND TEMPS WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S WHICH WILL FEEL
LIKE A FALL DAY FOR THE MID-ATLATNIC.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEAN TROUGHING WILL PERSIST ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. DRY AIR AND NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY AND COOLER
THAN NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD.

MODELS INDICATE THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE BACK WEST OF
THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
RE-ESTABLISHES ITS HOLD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THE TROUGH
MOVES BACK/REDEVELOPS TO OUR WEST...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
INCREASING THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY AS WELL AS THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND
WOULD SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN GIVEN THE LONG AND
PERSISTENT TRAJECTORY OF WIND OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO RIDING ALONG
A STALLED OR SLOW-MOVING FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHALLENGING THUNDERSTORM FORECAST THIS EVENING. HAD BACKED OFF ON
TSRA A COUPLE OF HOURS IN 00Z TAFS. WHILE THERE STILL REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE AND TIMING...CONTINUED THE OVERALL TREND IN
AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING...WITH
POTENTIAL IMPACT AT HUBS MAINLY 02Z-06Z TIME FRAME.

N-NW WINDS WILL MOVE IN AS A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS MONDAY.
SHRA AND -TSRA IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AS ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
NW WINDS AROUND 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS EXPECTED AT THE
TERMINALS.

NW FLOW GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS W/ VFR TUE-THU.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY CHANNELLING WILL LIKELY SUPPORT OCCASIONAL SCA GUSTS UP
THE BAY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ANY LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS. WINDS WILL
BECOME NWLY MONDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. A SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR
ALL THE WATERS MONDAY.

RELATIVELY BENIGN SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
NEARBY OR OVERHEAD TUE NIGHT-FRI IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS. WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE NEXT
WEEKEND...POSSIBLY TO SCA LEVELS BUT THAT IS UNCLEAR THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOMALIES HAVE DECREASED TO AROUND 1/2 FT ON THE WESTERN SHORE OF
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. AT HIGH TIDE...WATER LEVELS WOULD REMAIN BELOW
MINOR TIDAL FLOOD THRESHOLDS WITH THESE ANOMALIES.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     540-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...BPP/HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...BPP/HAS/DFH
MARINE...BPP/HAS/DFH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...








000
FXUS61 KLWX 280324
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1124 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HAVE CANCELLED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH GIVEN RADAR TRENDS WITHIN
THIS AREA. WILL CONTINUE THE TORNADO WATCH FOR NOW GIVEN UPSTREAM
CONVECTION IN WV AND GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF DECENT SHEAR IN THIS
AREA.

PREV...

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO MOVE INTO/DEVELOP ACROSS THE
CWA THAN SOME GUIDANCE HAD EARLIER SUGGESTED. HAVE HAD ONE CELL IN
WV /IN THE WATCH AREA/ THAT WE HAVE WARNED ON AND THAT HAS BEEN
THE STRONGEST CELL WITHIN OUR CWA THUS FAR.

18Z KIAD RAOB REVEALED A CAP ACROSS THE CWA /AND SOME DRY AIR TOO/...BUT
THAT CAP HAD DISAPPEARED BASED ON THE 00Z KIAD RAOB. DESPITE THE
SETTING OF THE SUN...EXPECTATION IS FOR AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION
DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING AS LARGER SCALE LIFT AND SHEAR
INCREASE. WITH THIS...THE SEVERE RISK WILL CONTINUE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA AND COULD ALSO EVENTUALLY SPREAD FURTHER DOWNSTREAM OF
THE CURRENT WATCH EARLY TONIGHT.

ACTUAL COLD FRONT LIKELY WON/T MAKE IT INTO THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE TROUGH WILL BE OVER NY MONDAY AND WHILE THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST. AS ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
MONDAY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
I-66 AND NORTH MONDAY AFTERNOON. NW WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

FCST MIN TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE HIGHLANDS
TO THE LOW 60S NEAR THE METROS AND WATERS. NRLY WINDS WIL CONTINUE
TUESDAY AND TEMPS WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S WHICH WILL FEEL
LIKE A FALL DAY FOR THE MID-ATLATNIC.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEAN TROUGHING WILL PERSIST ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. DRY AIR AND NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY AND COOLER
THAN NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD.

MODELS INDICATE THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE BACK WEST OF
THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
RE-ESTABLISHES ITS HOLD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THE TROUGH
MOVES BACK/REDEVELOPS TO OUR WEST...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
INCREASING THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY AS WELL AS THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND
WOULD SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN GIVEN THE LONG AND
PERSISTENT TRAJECTORY OF WIND OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO RIDING ALONG
A STALLED OR SLOW-MOVING FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHALLENGING THUNDERSTORM FORECAST THIS EVENING. HAD BACKED OFF ON
TSRA A COUPLE OF HOURS IN 00Z TAFS. WHILE THERE STILL REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE AND TIMING...CONTINUED THE OVERALL TREND IN
AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING...WITH
POTENTIAL IMPACT AT HUBS MAINLY 02Z-06Z TIME FRAME.

N-NW WINDS WILL MOVE IN AS A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS MONDAY.
SHRA AND -TSRA IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AS ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
NW WINDS AROUND 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS EXPECTED AT THE
TERMINALS.

NW FLOW GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS W/ VFR TUE-THU.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY CHANNELLING WILL LIKELY SUPPORT OCCASIONAL SCA GUSTS UP
THE BAY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ANY LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS. WINDS WILL
BECOME NWLY MONDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. A SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR
ALL THE WATERS MONDAY.

RELATIVELY BENIGN SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
NEARBY OR OVERHEAD TUE NIGHT-FRI IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS. WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE NEXT
WEEKEND...POSSIBLY TO SCA LEVELS BUT THAT IS UNCLEAR THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOMALIES HAVE DECREASED TO AROUND 1/2 FT ON THE WESTERN SHORE OF
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. AT HIGH TIDE...WATER LEVELS WOULD REMAIN BELOW
MINOR TIDAL FLOOD THRESHOLDS WITH THESE ANOMALIES.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     540-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...BPP/HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...BPP/HAS/DFH
MARINE...BPP/HAS/DFH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KLWX 280207
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1007 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
TORNADO WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS...CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA
FOOTHILLS TIL 3 AM GIVEN UPSTREAM CONVECTION EXPECTED TO MOVE E/SE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

PREV...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
AND WESTERN MARYLAND...THE EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE AND
INTO THE NORTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY OF VIRGINIA UNTIL 2 AM.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO MOVE INTO/DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA
THAN SOME GUIDANCE HAD EARLIER SUGGESTED. HAVE HAD ONE CELL IN WV /IN
THE WATCH AREA/ THAT WE HAVE WARNED ON AND THAT HAS BEEN THE
STRONGEST CELL WITHIN OUR CWA THUS FAR.

18Z KIAD RAOB REVEALED A CAP ACROSS THE CWA /AND SOME DRY AIR TOO/...BUT
THAT CAP HAD DISAPPEARED BASED ON THE 00Z KIAD RAOB. DESPITE THE
SETTING OF THE SUN...EXPECTATION IS FOR AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION
DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING AS LARGER SCALE LIFT AND SHEAR
INCREASE. WITH THIS...THE SEVERE RISK WILL CONTINUE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA AND COULD ALSO EVENTUALLY SPREAD FURTHER DOWNSTREAM OF
THE CURRENT WATCH EARLY TONIGHT.

ACTUAL COLD FRONT LIKELY WON/T MAKE IT INTO THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE TROUGH WILL BE OVER NY MONDAY AND WHILE THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST. AS ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
MONDAY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
I-66 AND NORTH MONDAY AFTERNOON. NW WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

FCST MIN TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE HIGHLANDS
TO THE LOW 60S NEAR THE METROS AND WATERS. NRLY WINDS WIL CONTINUE
TUESDAY AND TEMPS WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S WHICH WILL FEEL
LIKE A FALL DAY FOR THE MID-ATLATNIC.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEAN TROUGHING WILL PERSIST ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. DRY AIR AND NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY AND COOLER
THAN NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD.

MODELS INDICATE THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE BACK WEST OF
THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
RE-ESTABLISHES ITS HOLD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THE TROUGH
MOVES BACK/REDEVELOPS TO OUR WEST...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
INCREASING THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY AS WELL AS THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND
WOULD SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN GIVEN THE LONG AND
PERSISTENT TRAJECTORY OF WIND OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO RIDING ALONG
A STALLED OR SLOW-MOVING FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHALLENGING THUNDERSTORM FORECAST THIS EVENING. HAD BACKED OFF ON
TSRA A COUPLE OF HOURS IN 00Z TAFS. WHILE THERE STILL REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE AND TIMING...CONTINUED THE OVERALL TREND IN
AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING...WITH
POTENTIAL IMPACT AT HUBS MAINLY 02Z-06Z TIME FRAME.

N-NW WINDS WILL MOVE IN AS A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS MONDAY.
SHRA AND -TSRA IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AS ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
NW WINDS AROUND 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS EXPECTED AT THE
TERMINALS.

NW FLOW GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS W/ VFR TUE-THU.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY CHANNELLING WILL LIKELY SUPPORT OCCASIONAL SCA GUSTS UP
THE BAY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ANY LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS. WINDS WILL
BECOME NWLY MONDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. A SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR
ALL THE WATERS MONDAY.

RELATIVELY BENIGN SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
NEARBY OR OVERHEAD TUE NIGHT-FRI IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS. WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE NEXT
WEEKEND...POSSIBLY TO SCA LEVELS BUT THAT IS UNCLEAR THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOMALIES HAVE DECREASED TO AROUND 1/2 FT ON THE WESTERN SHORE OF
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. AT HIGH TIDE...WATER LEVELS WOULD REMAIN BELOW
MINOR TIDAL FLOOD THRESHOLDS WITH THESE ANOMALIES.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     540-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...BPP/HAS/DFH
MARINE...BPP/HAS/DFH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BPP







000
FXUS61 KLWX 280207
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1007 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
TORNADO WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS...CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA
FOOTHILLS TIL 3 AM GIVEN UPSTREAM CONVECTION EXPECTED TO MOVE E/SE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

PREV...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
AND WESTERN MARYLAND...THE EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE AND
INTO THE NORTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY OF VIRGINIA UNTIL 2 AM.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO MOVE INTO/DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA
THAN SOME GUIDANCE HAD EARLIER SUGGESTED. HAVE HAD ONE CELL IN WV /IN
THE WATCH AREA/ THAT WE HAVE WARNED ON AND THAT HAS BEEN THE
STRONGEST CELL WITHIN OUR CWA THUS FAR.

18Z KIAD RAOB REVEALED A CAP ACROSS THE CWA /AND SOME DRY AIR TOO/...BUT
THAT CAP HAD DISAPPEARED BASED ON THE 00Z KIAD RAOB. DESPITE THE
SETTING OF THE SUN...EXPECTATION IS FOR AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION
DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING AS LARGER SCALE LIFT AND SHEAR
INCREASE. WITH THIS...THE SEVERE RISK WILL CONTINUE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA AND COULD ALSO EVENTUALLY SPREAD FURTHER DOWNSTREAM OF
THE CURRENT WATCH EARLY TONIGHT.

ACTUAL COLD FRONT LIKELY WON/T MAKE IT INTO THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE TROUGH WILL BE OVER NY MONDAY AND WHILE THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST. AS ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
MONDAY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
I-66 AND NORTH MONDAY AFTERNOON. NW WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

FCST MIN TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE HIGHLANDS
TO THE LOW 60S NEAR THE METROS AND WATERS. NRLY WINDS WIL CONTINUE
TUESDAY AND TEMPS WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S WHICH WILL FEEL
LIKE A FALL DAY FOR THE MID-ATLATNIC.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEAN TROUGHING WILL PERSIST ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. DRY AIR AND NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY AND COOLER
THAN NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD.

MODELS INDICATE THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE BACK WEST OF
THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
RE-ESTABLISHES ITS HOLD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THE TROUGH
MOVES BACK/REDEVELOPS TO OUR WEST...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
INCREASING THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY AS WELL AS THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND
WOULD SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN GIVEN THE LONG AND
PERSISTENT TRAJECTORY OF WIND OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO RIDING ALONG
A STALLED OR SLOW-MOVING FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHALLENGING THUNDERSTORM FORECAST THIS EVENING. HAD BACKED OFF ON
TSRA A COUPLE OF HOURS IN 00Z TAFS. WHILE THERE STILL REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE AND TIMING...CONTINUED THE OVERALL TREND IN
AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING...WITH
POTENTIAL IMPACT AT HUBS MAINLY 02Z-06Z TIME FRAME.

N-NW WINDS WILL MOVE IN AS A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS MONDAY.
SHRA AND -TSRA IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AS ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
NW WINDS AROUND 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS EXPECTED AT THE
TERMINALS.

NW FLOW GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS W/ VFR TUE-THU.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY CHANNELLING WILL LIKELY SUPPORT OCCASIONAL SCA GUSTS UP
THE BAY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ANY LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS. WINDS WILL
BECOME NWLY MONDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. A SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR
ALL THE WATERS MONDAY.

RELATIVELY BENIGN SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
NEARBY OR OVERHEAD TUE NIGHT-FRI IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS. WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE NEXT
WEEKEND...POSSIBLY TO SCA LEVELS BUT THAT IS UNCLEAR THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOMALIES HAVE DECREASED TO AROUND 1/2 FT ON THE WESTERN SHORE OF
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. AT HIGH TIDE...WATER LEVELS WOULD REMAIN BELOW
MINOR TIDAL FLOOD THRESHOLDS WITH THESE ANOMALIES.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     540-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...BPP/HAS/DFH
MARINE...BPP/HAS/DFH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BPP








000
FXUS61 KRNK 280140
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
940 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THESE FEATURES MAY
TRIGGER STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY
TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY
MONDAY...RESULTING IN COOLER WEATHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 935 PM EDT SUNDAY...

TORNADO WATCH 451 FOR FAR SOUTHWESTERN VA...SOUTHEASTERN WV AND
THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLAND THROUGH 3AM.


AS OF 645 PM EDT SUNDAY...

TORNADO WATCH 448 ISSUED FOR A SMALL PART OF SW VA AND MOST OF OUR
NW NC COUNTIES UNTIL 1 AM EDT. NOT ENTIRELY CONFIDENT THAT MUCH OF
THE CWA WILL SEE SEVERE THREAT...SO IN DISCUSSION WITH SPC AM
HOLDING OFF ON ANY FURTHER WATCHES UNTIL WE SEE IF ONE IS NEEDED
FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. TIMING OF FRONT SUGGESTS THAT WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO CANCEL MUCH...IF NOT ALL OF THIS WATCH 448...BEFORE
1 AM EDT. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ZONES AT THIS TIME
AS POP AND TEMP TRENDS LOOK GOOD.

AS OF 200 PM EDT SUNDAY...

EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLIER IMPULSE SLOWLY
ERODING IN SPOTS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST BUT HAS ACTED TO KEEP A LID
ON INSTABILITY SO FAR GIVEN OVERALL LACK OF HEATING. THIS
EVIDENCED VIA THE SPECIAL 18Z SOUNDING WHICH SHOWS QUITE A CAP
ALOFT WHICH WILL TAKE A LOT MORE HEATING OR DYNAMICS LATER TO
OVERCOME. ODOR NEXT MCS INDUCED WAVE ROLLING SE OUT OF KY THE
MAIN PLAYER INTO LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING AS IT JETS SE
IN ADVANCE OF THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT CURRENTLY BACK IN THE
MIDWEST. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO NOT HANDLE THE ONGOING
SCENARIO VERY WELL...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST NSSL WRF TAKES THIS
CONVECTION SE INTO OUR FAR SW COUNTIES WHERE GUIDANCE SHOWS BETTER
THETA-E RIDGING AND SOMEWHAT BETTER LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC
SUPPORT WITHIN A BETTER SW JET ALOFT. OTHER AREA TO WATCH WILL BE
OVER THE FAR WEST THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT AS THE ACTUAL
COLD FRONT AND UPPER COLD POOL DYNAMICS ARRIVE ACROSS THE FAR
WEST. HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE VEERING MORE WESTERLY BY THEN AND ANY
INSTABILITY WANING WHICH SHOULD PUT THE BEST FOCUS ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES WHERE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE BETTER COVERAGE. THIS
ACTIVITY LIKELY TO HAVE A HARD TIME SPILLING EAST BUT KEPT IN
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE EVENING EAST WHILE GOING LIKELYS TO LOW
END CAT FAR WEST EARLY ON.

85H FRONT WILL FINALLY SURGE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...REACHING THE PIEDMONT TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. MUCH DRIER
AIR ARRIVING ALOFT SHOULD CUT INTO ANY LEFTOVER SHRA COVERAGE
WITH ONLY SOME LOW CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS REMAINING IN THE
UPSLOPE REGIONS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN GUSTY ON THE RIDGES
FROM THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ANY ADVISORY
LEVELS ALTHOUGH QUITE BLUSTERY FOR LATE SUMMER. KEPT LOWS MORE IN
LINE WITH THE WARMER MET MOS EAST AND TOOK A BLEND WEST WHERE COOL
ADVECTION MAY BE OFFSET BY MIXING.

5H TROF CROSSES EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO
START BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROUNDING DOWN THE BACK OF THE COOL POOL MAY HELP
TO ENHANCE THE SHOWERS AS IT COINCIDES WITH THE COLDEST 85H TEMPS
AND MAX HEATING. THUS BOOSTED POPS WESTERN SLOPES TO A PERIOD OF
LOW LIKELYS MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A QUICK CUTOFF TO SHRA BLUE
RIDGE AND POINTS EAST WHERE DOWNSLOPING SHOULD ALLOW FOR LESS
CLOUDS. ODOR WILL BE A BREEZY AND COOL DAY FOR LATE JULY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 60S WHERE CLOUDS
PERSIST AND ALONG HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET WELL
INTO THE 80S UNDER DRY DOWNSLOPE PIEDMONT BUT ONLY 75-82 BLUE
RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT SATURDAY...

WEST TO NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE BLACKSBURG
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS SERIES OF WEAK SHORT
WAVE TROFS EMBEDDED IN UPPER FLOW HELP ANCHOR PIN-WHEELING UPPER
TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

COOLER AIR ALOFT...WEAK FORCING FROM INITIAL SHORT WAVE...AND WEAK
UPSLOPING MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE WESTERN FLANKS OF THE APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY NIGHT...AND PERHAPS
DIURNALLY DRIVEN EVEN INTO TUESDAY.  HOWEVER...DESPITE ADDITIONAL
WEAK STREAM ENERGY...ARRIVAL OF SURFACE RIDGE AND AMPLIFICATION OF
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO LIMIT THREAT FOR ANY
ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

UPSLOPING CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST SHOULD MAINTAIN UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NOT LIKELY TO
CLIMB OUT OF THE 60S ON EITHER TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...ANY INFLUENCE OF COLD
ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET BY DOWNSLOPING/COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND
GOOD INSOLATION SUCH THAT HIGHS REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S...YET STILL ~5F LOWER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.

NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE LARGELY GOVERNED BY EXTENT OF MIXING AND
CLOUD COVER. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE/IF CLOUDS CAN CLEAR...AND
ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING WILL
MORE READILY OCCUR...SHOULD EXPERIENCE AT LEAST SPOTTY READINGS DOWN
INTO THE 40S. READINGS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL BE A BIT
MILDER...MAINLY 50S...YET STILL 5-10F BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A SURFACE HIGH THURSDAY OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN WILL SHIFT EAST
TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AT THE MID LEVELS A
PERSISTENT TROUGH IS SET UP OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN US. THURSDAY LACKS LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE SO EXPECT
THE DAY TO BE DRY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE FOR FRIDAY AND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES PIVOT ACROSS
THE REGION AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING AND TAPER OFF TO
JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING. FOCUS OF THE HIGHEST
CHANCE POPS ARE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE WILL
BE LOCATED...WITH LOWER CHANCE POPS OUT EAST.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH 850MB TEMPS
AROUND +16C. THIS WILL CORRESPOND TO SURFACE HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID
80S OUT EAST AND NEAR 80 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST ON FRIDAY THE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM N/NW TO AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION. THIS WILL WEDGE THE AREA IN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. WITH THE INCREASED LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. THIS ALONG WITH EXPECTED SCATTERED PRECIP AND 850MB
TEMPS FALLING TO +11-14C...SURFACE HIGH TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT SUNDAY...

STILL AWAITING POTENTIAL ARRIVAL OF MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
INTO THE CWA AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES WITH STRONG STORMS STILL
POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN AREAS OF BETTER INSTABILITY/HEATING ACROSS
SOUTHSIDE/PIEDMONT. THIS COULD IMPACT ROA/LYH/DAN IN THE 02Z-06Z
TIME FRAME...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW AS CIRRUS
SHIELD FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION AND MORNING ACTIVITY HAS
ESSENTIALLY PUT A LID ON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THIS POINT ACROSS
MOST OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. OF GREATER LIKELIHOOD IS
THAT A LINE OF MOST LIKELY SUBSEVERE SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT/UPPER TROUGH AS ITS SWINGS RAPIDLY THROUGH THE CWA IN
THE 04Z-08Z TIME FRAME. GIVEN THAT THERE WILL BE A LARGE UPSLOPE
COMPONENT AT THAT TIME...EXPECT THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF
SHRA/TSRA TO BE ACROSS THE WV COUNTIES...BUT ENOUGH DYNAMICS TO
SUPPORT MENTION OF SHRA EASTWARD EVEN INTO THE PIEDMONT. MOST
LIKELY THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR CIGS LWB-BLF...TO LOW END
VFR CIGS FURTHER EASTWARD. ALL PCPN SHOULD BE ENDING BY 10Z
MON...BUT EXTENSIVE UPSLOPE SC WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT WV MON
WITH A WINTERLIKE SETUP AND STRONG NW FLOW AND STRONG CAA. EXPECT
MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL ALL DAY LWB-BLF...AND POTENTIALLY EVEN BCB AT
TIMES. FURTHER EAST...CLOUDS SHOULD SCT OUT AND CIGS WILL BE
MOSTLY VFR. VSBYS MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE ISOLD MVFR IN TIME AND
LOCATION DURING SHRA/TSRA. MAIN CONCERN AFT 06Z AND THROUGH THE
DAY MON WILL BE STRONG NW WINDS AT SPEEDS OF 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS
25-30KTS...ESPECIALLY AFT 14Z MON. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR
THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN TSRA POTENTIAL THROUGH 10Z MON.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FOR TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
LATE NIGHT FOG KBCB/KLWB ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVELS MAY STAY DRY
ENOUGH FOR LESS FOG COVERAGE.

VARIABLE CIGS EXPECTED UNDER ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW THROUGHOUT THE
REST OF THE WEEK. A FEW -SHRA NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION
ACROSS EASTERN WV...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. TYPICAL FOG
POTENTIAL LESS THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK BECAUSE OF TURBULENT MIXING AND PREVAILING CYCLONIC FLOW.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE UPPER LOW RETROGRADES JUST
WEST OF THE REGION...INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA BUT MAINLY
SW OF THE TAF SITES INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE WEATHER RADIO AT HINTON WEST VA TRANSMITTING ON FREQUENCY
162.425 MHZ REMAINS OFF THE AIR LIKELY DUE TO PHONE LINE PROBLEMS.
RESTORATION OF SERVICE IS NOT EXPECTED BEFORE NOON ON MONDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...JH/RAB
SHORT TERM...WERT
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...JH/RAB
EQUIPMENT...JH



000
FXUS61 KRNK 280140
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
940 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THESE FEATURES MAY
TRIGGER STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY
TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY
MONDAY...RESULTING IN COOLER WEATHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 935 PM EDT SUNDAY...

TORNADO WATCH 451 FOR FAR SOUTHWESTERN VA...SOUTHEASTERN WV AND
THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLAND THROUGH 3AM.


AS OF 645 PM EDT SUNDAY...

TORNADO WATCH 448 ISSUED FOR A SMALL PART OF SW VA AND MOST OF OUR
NW NC COUNTIES UNTIL 1 AM EDT. NOT ENTIRELY CONFIDENT THAT MUCH OF
THE CWA WILL SEE SEVERE THREAT...SO IN DISCUSSION WITH SPC AM
HOLDING OFF ON ANY FURTHER WATCHES UNTIL WE SEE IF ONE IS NEEDED
FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. TIMING OF FRONT SUGGESTS THAT WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO CANCEL MUCH...IF NOT ALL OF THIS WATCH 448...BEFORE
1 AM EDT. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ZONES AT THIS TIME
AS POP AND TEMP TRENDS LOOK GOOD.

AS OF 200 PM EDT SUNDAY...

EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLIER IMPULSE SLOWLY
ERODING IN SPOTS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST BUT HAS ACTED TO KEEP A LID
ON INSTABILITY SO FAR GIVEN OVERALL LACK OF HEATING. THIS
EVIDENCED VIA THE SPECIAL 18Z SOUNDING WHICH SHOWS QUITE A CAP
ALOFT WHICH WILL TAKE A LOT MORE HEATING OR DYNAMICS LATER TO
OVERCOME. ODOR NEXT MCS INDUCED WAVE ROLLING SE OUT OF KY THE
MAIN PLAYER INTO LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING AS IT JETS SE
IN ADVANCE OF THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT CURRENTLY BACK IN THE
MIDWEST. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO NOT HANDLE THE ONGOING
SCENARIO VERY WELL...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST NSSL WRF TAKES THIS
CONVECTION SE INTO OUR FAR SW COUNTIES WHERE GUIDANCE SHOWS BETTER
THETA-E RIDGING AND SOMEWHAT BETTER LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC
SUPPORT WITHIN A BETTER SW JET ALOFT. OTHER AREA TO WATCH WILL BE
OVER THE FAR WEST THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT AS THE ACTUAL
COLD FRONT AND UPPER COLD POOL DYNAMICS ARRIVE ACROSS THE FAR
WEST. HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE VEERING MORE WESTERLY BY THEN AND ANY
INSTABILITY WANING WHICH SHOULD PUT THE BEST FOCUS ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES WHERE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE BETTER COVERAGE. THIS
ACTIVITY LIKELY TO HAVE A HARD TIME SPILLING EAST BUT KEPT IN
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE EVENING EAST WHILE GOING LIKELYS TO LOW
END CAT FAR WEST EARLY ON.

85H FRONT WILL FINALLY SURGE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...REACHING THE PIEDMONT TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. MUCH DRIER
AIR ARRIVING ALOFT SHOULD CUT INTO ANY LEFTOVER SHRA COVERAGE
WITH ONLY SOME LOW CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS REMAINING IN THE
UPSLOPE REGIONS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN GUSTY ON THE RIDGES
FROM THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ANY ADVISORY
LEVELS ALTHOUGH QUITE BLUSTERY FOR LATE SUMMER. KEPT LOWS MORE IN
LINE WITH THE WARMER MET MOS EAST AND TOOK A BLEND WEST WHERE COOL
ADVECTION MAY BE OFFSET BY MIXING.

5H TROF CROSSES EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO
START BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROUNDING DOWN THE BACK OF THE COOL POOL MAY HELP
TO ENHANCE THE SHOWERS AS IT COINCIDES WITH THE COLDEST 85H TEMPS
AND MAX HEATING. THUS BOOSTED POPS WESTERN SLOPES TO A PERIOD OF
LOW LIKELYS MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A QUICK CUTOFF TO SHRA BLUE
RIDGE AND POINTS EAST WHERE DOWNSLOPING SHOULD ALLOW FOR LESS
CLOUDS. ODOR WILL BE A BREEZY AND COOL DAY FOR LATE JULY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 60S WHERE CLOUDS
PERSIST AND ALONG HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET WELL
INTO THE 80S UNDER DRY DOWNSLOPE PIEDMONT BUT ONLY 75-82 BLUE
RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT SATURDAY...

WEST TO NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE BLACKSBURG
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS SERIES OF WEAK SHORT
WAVE TROFS EMBEDDED IN UPPER FLOW HELP ANCHOR PIN-WHEELING UPPER
TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

COOLER AIR ALOFT...WEAK FORCING FROM INITIAL SHORT WAVE...AND WEAK
UPSLOPING MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE WESTERN FLANKS OF THE APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY NIGHT...AND PERHAPS
DIURNALLY DRIVEN EVEN INTO TUESDAY.  HOWEVER...DESPITE ADDITIONAL
WEAK STREAM ENERGY...ARRIVAL OF SURFACE RIDGE AND AMPLIFICATION OF
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO LIMIT THREAT FOR ANY
ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

UPSLOPING CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST SHOULD MAINTAIN UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NOT LIKELY TO
CLIMB OUT OF THE 60S ON EITHER TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...ANY INFLUENCE OF COLD
ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET BY DOWNSLOPING/COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND
GOOD INSOLATION SUCH THAT HIGHS REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S...YET STILL ~5F LOWER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.

NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE LARGELY GOVERNED BY EXTENT OF MIXING AND
CLOUD COVER. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE/IF CLOUDS CAN CLEAR...AND
ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING WILL
MORE READILY OCCUR...SHOULD EXPERIENCE AT LEAST SPOTTY READINGS DOWN
INTO THE 40S. READINGS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL BE A BIT
MILDER...MAINLY 50S...YET STILL 5-10F BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A SURFACE HIGH THURSDAY OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN WILL SHIFT EAST
TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AT THE MID LEVELS A
PERSISTENT TROUGH IS SET UP OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN US. THURSDAY LACKS LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE SO EXPECT
THE DAY TO BE DRY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE FOR FRIDAY AND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES PIVOT ACROSS
THE REGION AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING AND TAPER OFF TO
JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING. FOCUS OF THE HIGHEST
CHANCE POPS ARE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE WILL
BE LOCATED...WITH LOWER CHANCE POPS OUT EAST.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH 850MB TEMPS
AROUND +16C. THIS WILL CORRESPOND TO SURFACE HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID
80S OUT EAST AND NEAR 80 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST ON FRIDAY THE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM N/NW TO AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION. THIS WILL WEDGE THE AREA IN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. WITH THE INCREASED LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. THIS ALONG WITH EXPECTED SCATTERED PRECIP AND 850MB
TEMPS FALLING TO +11-14C...SURFACE HIGH TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT SUNDAY...

STILL AWAITING POTENTIAL ARRIVAL OF MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
INTO THE CWA AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES WITH STRONG STORMS STILL
POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN AREAS OF BETTER INSTABILITY/HEATING ACROSS
SOUTHSIDE/PIEDMONT. THIS COULD IMPACT ROA/LYH/DAN IN THE 02Z-06Z
TIME FRAME...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW AS CIRRUS
SHIELD FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION AND MORNING ACTIVITY HAS
ESSENTIALLY PUT A LID ON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THIS POINT ACROSS
MOST OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. OF GREATER LIKELIHOOD IS
THAT A LINE OF MOST LIKELY SUBSEVERE SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT/UPPER TROUGH AS ITS SWINGS RAPIDLY THROUGH THE CWA IN
THE 04Z-08Z TIME FRAME. GIVEN THAT THERE WILL BE A LARGE UPSLOPE
COMPONENT AT THAT TIME...EXPECT THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF
SHRA/TSRA TO BE ACROSS THE WV COUNTIES...BUT ENOUGH DYNAMICS TO
SUPPORT MENTION OF SHRA EASTWARD EVEN INTO THE PIEDMONT. MOST
LIKELY THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR CIGS LWB-BLF...TO LOW END
VFR CIGS FURTHER EASTWARD. ALL PCPN SHOULD BE ENDING BY 10Z
MON...BUT EXTENSIVE UPSLOPE SC WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT WV MON
WITH A WINTERLIKE SETUP AND STRONG NW FLOW AND STRONG CAA. EXPECT
MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL ALL DAY LWB-BLF...AND POTENTIALLY EVEN BCB AT
TIMES. FURTHER EAST...CLOUDS SHOULD SCT OUT AND CIGS WILL BE
MOSTLY VFR. VSBYS MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE ISOLD MVFR IN TIME AND
LOCATION DURING SHRA/TSRA. MAIN CONCERN AFT 06Z AND THROUGH THE
DAY MON WILL BE STRONG NW WINDS AT SPEEDS OF 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS
25-30KTS...ESPECIALLY AFT 14Z MON. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR
THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN TSRA POTENTIAL THROUGH 10Z MON.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FOR TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
LATE NIGHT FOG KBCB/KLWB ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVELS MAY STAY DRY
ENOUGH FOR LESS FOG COVERAGE.

VARIABLE CIGS EXPECTED UNDER ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW THROUGHOUT THE
REST OF THE WEEK. A FEW -SHRA NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION
ACROSS EASTERN WV...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. TYPICAL FOG
POTENTIAL LESS THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK BECAUSE OF TURBULENT MIXING AND PREVAILING CYCLONIC FLOW.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE UPPER LOW RETROGRADES JUST
WEST OF THE REGION...INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA BUT MAINLY
SW OF THE TAF SITES INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE WEATHER RADIO AT HINTON WEST VA TRANSMITTING ON FREQUENCY
162.425 MHZ REMAINS OFF THE AIR LIKELY DUE TO PHONE LINE PROBLEMS.
RESTORATION OF SERVICE IS NOT EXPECTED BEFORE NOON ON MONDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...JH/RAB
SHORT TERM...WERT
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...JH/RAB
EQUIPMENT...JH




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280108
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
908 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY MONDAY...THEN STALLS OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATED SFC COLD FRONT WELL OFF TO OUR WEST FROM
WESTERN LAKE ERIE EXTENDING SW DOWN THROUGH OHIO AND INTO KENTUCKY.
FLOW ALOFT IS WESTERLY. AKQ VAD WIND PROFILE AND 00Z AREA SOUNDINGS
SHOWS STRONG WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH MOST OF THE ATMOSPHERE FROM 900
MB ON UP...WHICH DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR BULK OF PRECIP HOLDING
TOGETHER THIS SIDE OF THE MTNS OVERNIGHT.

OVERALL...SEVERE THREAT (AND CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP) IS
WANING FOR THE AKQ CWA. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA FROM ABOUT 11 PM THROUGH 3 AM...BASED
ON AREA OF STORMS SEEN ON RADAR AND IR SATELLITE OVER THE NORTHERN
1/2 OF WV MOVING FROM WNW TO ESE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS. WILL
CARRY 50-60% POPS ACRS THE FAR NORTH FOR THESE AREAS. ELSEWHERE...LARGE
AREA OF CONVECTION IN NC WILL MISS MOST OF THE CWA TO THE SOUTH
PER CURRENT STORM MOTION/CORFIDI VECTORS. HAVE DROPPED POPS OFF TO
AROUND 40% FOR MOST OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC (WAS GOING TO DROP
IT EVEN FURTHER BUT GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
SOME NEW ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN WV/ERN KY WILL MAINTAIN
THESE 40% POPS. WHILE SHEAR REMAINS IMPRESSIVE OVERNIGHT...INSTABILITY
WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND WITH DOUBTS DEVELOPING AS TO PRECIP
COVERAGE...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST. WILL CONTINUE WITH
HWO MENTION OF POSSIBLE STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAINLY FOR
DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN THAT THERE WILL BE STRONG WINDS NOT FAR OFF
THE SFC. LOWS IN THE U60S NW TO THE LWR-MID 70S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONT / LEADING TROF PROGGED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST MONDAY MORN...
TAKING MOST IF NOT ALL PCPN WITH IT. THIS ENDS ANY SVR THREAT ACROSS
THE AREA. GIVEN LINGERING UPR LVL NRGY & MSTR...KEPT LOW CHC POPS
FAR EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH A PERIOD
OF NO POPS FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTN...FOLLOWED BY 20%/SLIGHT
CHC POPS MAINLY ALONG IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS DRNG THE MID-LATE
AFTN. GIVEN INCREASING AMTS OF AFTRN SUN & A DOWNSLOPING WEST
WIND...TMPS XPCTD TO WARM INTO THE U80S-L90S.

MODELS DVLP SCT CONVECTION ALONG THE STALLED FRNTL MON EVENING SO
HAVE CONFINED LOW CHC POPS TO COUNTIES BORDERING ALBEMARLE SND.
OTW...PT CLDY & COOLER. WEAK CAA SEEN AS WINDS BECOME NORTH. LOWS
IN THE 60S.

UPR LVL COOL POOL WILL COMBINE WITH DYTME HTNG AND LINGERING
TROFINESS OVR THE FA FOR ISLTD POPS TUE AFTRN. CAPPED POPS AT 20%
FOR NOW. PT SUNNY WITH BLO NRML TMPS. HIGHS IN THE L80S XCPT U70S
AT THE BEACHES. M CLR TO PT CLDY TUE NITE AND RTHR COMFY FOR LATE
JULY. LOWS M50S-M60S.

MSTLY SUNNY WITH BLO NRML TMPS WED AS HIGH PRS BUILDS OVR THE RGN.
HIGHS L-M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF OVR THE MID ATLC REGION WED NGT...WILL
RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND DEEPEN THU THRU SUN.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING OFF THE MID ATLC CST WED NGT INTO
FRI...WILL DRIFT BACK TWD THE CST LATE FRI THRU SUN. FOR NOW...WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR WED NGT INTO FRI...THEN INCREASE TO SLGT CHC
OR CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT THRU SUN. STILL FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WED NGT
AND THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY/LO LVL MOIST RETURNS
FOR FRI THRU SUN. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID
80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S
THU MORNG...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI MORNG...RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT
MORNG...AND RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SUN MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS AT ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING WITH RADAR SHOWING NO WX
OVER THE AKQ CWA. HOWEVER A LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVG THRU
KY/TN AND SW VA WILL MOVE ESE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MOST OF THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE CWA...BUT
PSBL AFFECTING ECG EARLY MORNING. ALSO...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OUT OF THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT AND INTO CENTRL VA BY EARLY TO MID
MORNING MON. THERE IS A CHC THAT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY
DEVELOP WITH AND IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO VA BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT STRONG. HOWEVER...DID OPT TO SHOW SOME SHOWERS
BY 08Z-10Z FOR ALL TAF SITES AND SOME VCTS FOR ECG.

MODELS SHOW FRONT MOVG OFFSHORE MON AFTN. EXPECT CLEARING BEHIND
THE BNDRY WITH MOSTLY W-NW FLOW AND WNDS GUSTING DURING THE DAY TO
25-30 KT.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST DURING THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG IS PSBL NEAR SUNRISE BUT WIDESPREAD
IFR IS NOT INDICATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TNGT THRU TUE. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA FM THE NW THIS EVENG...THEN CROSSES THE WTRS AND
OFF THE CST MON INTO MON NGT. SSW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT THRU TNGT. WINDS
WILL TURN TO THE W DURING MON...THEN NW AND N MON NGT INTO TUE MRNG.
NNE WINDS 15 KT OR LESS EXPECTED TUE THRU WED. SE OR E WINDS 10 KT
OR LESS WED NGT THRU THU NGT...BEFORE BECOMING NE AGAIN ON FRI.
WAVES 1 TO 3 FT...AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...JEF/LSA
MARINE...TMG






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280108
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
908 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY MONDAY...THEN STALLS OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATED SFC COLD FRONT WELL OFF TO OUR WEST FROM
WESTERN LAKE ERIE EXTENDING SW DOWN THROUGH OHIO AND INTO KENTUCKY.
FLOW ALOFT IS WESTERLY. AKQ VAD WIND PROFILE AND 00Z AREA SOUNDINGS
SHOWS STRONG WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH MOST OF THE ATMOSPHERE FROM 900
MB ON UP...WHICH DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR BULK OF PRECIP HOLDING
TOGETHER THIS SIDE OF THE MTNS OVERNIGHT.

OVERALL...SEVERE THREAT (AND CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP) IS
WANING FOR THE AKQ CWA. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA FROM ABOUT 11 PM THROUGH 3 AM...BASED
ON AREA OF STORMS SEEN ON RADAR AND IR SATELLITE OVER THE NORTHERN
1/2 OF WV MOVING FROM WNW TO ESE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS. WILL
CARRY 50-60% POPS ACRS THE FAR NORTH FOR THESE AREAS. ELSEWHERE...LARGE
AREA OF CONVECTION IN NC WILL MISS MOST OF THE CWA TO THE SOUTH
PER CURRENT STORM MOTION/CORFIDI VECTORS. HAVE DROPPED POPS OFF TO
AROUND 40% FOR MOST OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC (WAS GOING TO DROP
IT EVEN FURTHER BUT GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
SOME NEW ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN WV/ERN KY WILL MAINTAIN
THESE 40% POPS. WHILE SHEAR REMAINS IMPRESSIVE OVERNIGHT...INSTABILITY
WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND WITH DOUBTS DEVELOPING AS TO PRECIP
COVERAGE...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST. WILL CONTINUE WITH
HWO MENTION OF POSSIBLE STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAINLY FOR
DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN THAT THERE WILL BE STRONG WINDS NOT FAR OFF
THE SFC. LOWS IN THE U60S NW TO THE LWR-MID 70S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONT / LEADING TROF PROGGED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST MONDAY MORN...
TAKING MOST IF NOT ALL PCPN WITH IT. THIS ENDS ANY SVR THREAT ACROSS
THE AREA. GIVEN LINGERING UPR LVL NRGY & MSTR...KEPT LOW CHC POPS
FAR EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH A PERIOD
OF NO POPS FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTN...FOLLOWED BY 20%/SLIGHT
CHC POPS MAINLY ALONG IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS DRNG THE MID-LATE
AFTN. GIVEN INCREASING AMTS OF AFTRN SUN & A DOWNSLOPING WEST
WIND...TMPS XPCTD TO WARM INTO THE U80S-L90S.

MODELS DVLP SCT CONVECTION ALONG THE STALLED FRNTL MON EVENING SO
HAVE CONFINED LOW CHC POPS TO COUNTIES BORDERING ALBEMARLE SND.
OTW...PT CLDY & COOLER. WEAK CAA SEEN AS WINDS BECOME NORTH. LOWS
IN THE 60S.

UPR LVL COOL POOL WILL COMBINE WITH DYTME HTNG AND LINGERING
TROFINESS OVR THE FA FOR ISLTD POPS TUE AFTRN. CAPPED POPS AT 20%
FOR NOW. PT SUNNY WITH BLO NRML TMPS. HIGHS IN THE L80S XCPT U70S
AT THE BEACHES. M CLR TO PT CLDY TUE NITE AND RTHR COMFY FOR LATE
JULY. LOWS M50S-M60S.

MSTLY SUNNY WITH BLO NRML TMPS WED AS HIGH PRS BUILDS OVR THE RGN.
HIGHS L-M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF OVR THE MID ATLC REGION WED NGT...WILL
RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND DEEPEN THU THRU SUN.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING OFF THE MID ATLC CST WED NGT INTO
FRI...WILL DRIFT BACK TWD THE CST LATE FRI THRU SUN. FOR NOW...WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR WED NGT INTO FRI...THEN INCREASE TO SLGT CHC
OR CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT THRU SUN. STILL FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WED NGT
AND THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY/LO LVL MOIST RETURNS
FOR FRI THRU SUN. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID
80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S
THU MORNG...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI MORNG...RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT
MORNG...AND RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SUN MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS AT ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING WITH RADAR SHOWING NO WX
OVER THE AKQ CWA. HOWEVER A LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVG THRU
KY/TN AND SW VA WILL MOVE ESE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MOST OF THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE CWA...BUT
PSBL AFFECTING ECG EARLY MORNING. ALSO...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OUT OF THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT AND INTO CENTRL VA BY EARLY TO MID
MORNING MON. THERE IS A CHC THAT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY
DEVELOP WITH AND IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO VA BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT STRONG. HOWEVER...DID OPT TO SHOW SOME SHOWERS
BY 08Z-10Z FOR ALL TAF SITES AND SOME VCTS FOR ECG.

MODELS SHOW FRONT MOVG OFFSHORE MON AFTN. EXPECT CLEARING BEHIND
THE BNDRY WITH MOSTLY W-NW FLOW AND WNDS GUSTING DURING THE DAY TO
25-30 KT.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST DURING THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG IS PSBL NEAR SUNRISE BUT WIDESPREAD
IFR IS NOT INDICATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TNGT THRU TUE. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA FM THE NW THIS EVENG...THEN CROSSES THE WTRS AND
OFF THE CST MON INTO MON NGT. SSW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT THRU TNGT. WINDS
WILL TURN TO THE W DURING MON...THEN NW AND N MON NGT INTO TUE MRNG.
NNE WINDS 15 KT OR LESS EXPECTED TUE THRU WED. SE OR E WINDS 10 KT
OR LESS WED NGT THRU THU NGT...BEFORE BECOMING NE AGAIN ON FRI.
WAVES 1 TO 3 FT...AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...JEF/LSA
MARINE...TMG






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280108
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
908 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY MONDAY...THEN STALLS OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATED SFC COLD FRONT WELL OFF TO OUR WEST FROM
WESTERN LAKE ERIE EXTENDING SW DOWN THROUGH OHIO AND INTO KENTUCKY.
FLOW ALOFT IS WESTERLY. AKQ VAD WIND PROFILE AND 00Z AREA SOUNDINGS
SHOWS STRONG WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH MOST OF THE ATMOSPHERE FROM 900
MB ON UP...WHICH DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR BULK OF PRECIP HOLDING
TOGETHER THIS SIDE OF THE MTNS OVERNIGHT.

OVERALL...SEVERE THREAT (AND CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP) IS
WANING FOR THE AKQ CWA. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA FROM ABOUT 11 PM THROUGH 3 AM...BASED
ON AREA OF STORMS SEEN ON RADAR AND IR SATELLITE OVER THE NORTHERN
1/2 OF WV MOVING FROM WNW TO ESE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS. WILL
CARRY 50-60% POPS ACRS THE FAR NORTH FOR THESE AREAS. ELSEWHERE...LARGE
AREA OF CONVECTION IN NC WILL MISS MOST OF THE CWA TO THE SOUTH
PER CURRENT STORM MOTION/CORFIDI VECTORS. HAVE DROPPED POPS OFF TO
AROUND 40% FOR MOST OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC (WAS GOING TO DROP
IT EVEN FURTHER BUT GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
SOME NEW ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN WV/ERN KY WILL MAINTAIN
THESE 40% POPS. WHILE SHEAR REMAINS IMPRESSIVE OVERNIGHT...INSTABILITY
WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND WITH DOUBTS DEVELOPING AS TO PRECIP
COVERAGE...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST. WILL CONTINUE WITH
HWO MENTION OF POSSIBLE STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAINLY FOR
DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN THAT THERE WILL BE STRONG WINDS NOT FAR OFF
THE SFC. LOWS IN THE U60S NW TO THE LWR-MID 70S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONT / LEADING TROF PROGGED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST MONDAY MORN...
TAKING MOST IF NOT ALL PCPN WITH IT. THIS ENDS ANY SVR THREAT ACROSS
THE AREA. GIVEN LINGERING UPR LVL NRGY & MSTR...KEPT LOW CHC POPS
FAR EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH A PERIOD
OF NO POPS FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTN...FOLLOWED BY 20%/SLIGHT
CHC POPS MAINLY ALONG IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS DRNG THE MID-LATE
AFTN. GIVEN INCREASING AMTS OF AFTRN SUN & A DOWNSLOPING WEST
WIND...TMPS XPCTD TO WARM INTO THE U80S-L90S.

MODELS DVLP SCT CONVECTION ALONG THE STALLED FRNTL MON EVENING SO
HAVE CONFINED LOW CHC POPS TO COUNTIES BORDERING ALBEMARLE SND.
OTW...PT CLDY & COOLER. WEAK CAA SEEN AS WINDS BECOME NORTH. LOWS
IN THE 60S.

UPR LVL COOL POOL WILL COMBINE WITH DYTME HTNG AND LINGERING
TROFINESS OVR THE FA FOR ISLTD POPS TUE AFTRN. CAPPED POPS AT 20%
FOR NOW. PT SUNNY WITH BLO NRML TMPS. HIGHS IN THE L80S XCPT U70S
AT THE BEACHES. M CLR TO PT CLDY TUE NITE AND RTHR COMFY FOR LATE
JULY. LOWS M50S-M60S.

MSTLY SUNNY WITH BLO NRML TMPS WED AS HIGH PRS BUILDS OVR THE RGN.
HIGHS L-M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF OVR THE MID ATLC REGION WED NGT...WILL
RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND DEEPEN THU THRU SUN.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING OFF THE MID ATLC CST WED NGT INTO
FRI...WILL DRIFT BACK TWD THE CST LATE FRI THRU SUN. FOR NOW...WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR WED NGT INTO FRI...THEN INCREASE TO SLGT CHC
OR CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT THRU SUN. STILL FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WED NGT
AND THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY/LO LVL MOIST RETURNS
FOR FRI THRU SUN. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID
80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S
THU MORNG...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI MORNG...RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT
MORNG...AND RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SUN MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS AT ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING WITH RADAR SHOWING NO WX
OVER THE AKQ CWA. HOWEVER A LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVG THRU
KY/TN AND SW VA WILL MOVE ESE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MOST OF THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE CWA...BUT
PSBL AFFECTING ECG EARLY MORNING. ALSO...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OUT OF THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT AND INTO CENTRL VA BY EARLY TO MID
MORNING MON. THERE IS A CHC THAT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY
DEVELOP WITH AND IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO VA BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT STRONG. HOWEVER...DID OPT TO SHOW SOME SHOWERS
BY 08Z-10Z FOR ALL TAF SITES AND SOME VCTS FOR ECG.

MODELS SHOW FRONT MOVG OFFSHORE MON AFTN. EXPECT CLEARING BEHIND
THE BNDRY WITH MOSTLY W-NW FLOW AND WNDS GUSTING DURING THE DAY TO
25-30 KT.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST DURING THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG IS PSBL NEAR SUNRISE BUT WIDESPREAD
IFR IS NOT INDICATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TNGT THRU TUE. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA FM THE NW THIS EVENG...THEN CROSSES THE WTRS AND
OFF THE CST MON INTO MON NGT. SSW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT THRU TNGT. WINDS
WILL TURN TO THE W DURING MON...THEN NW AND N MON NGT INTO TUE MRNG.
NNE WINDS 15 KT OR LESS EXPECTED TUE THRU WED. SE OR E WINDS 10 KT
OR LESS WED NGT THRU THU NGT...BEFORE BECOMING NE AGAIN ON FRI.
WAVES 1 TO 3 FT...AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...JEF/LSA
MARINE...TMG






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280108
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
908 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY MONDAY...THEN STALLS OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATED SFC COLD FRONT WELL OFF TO OUR WEST FROM
WESTERN LAKE ERIE EXTENDING SW DOWN THROUGH OHIO AND INTO KENTUCKY.
FLOW ALOFT IS WESTERLY. AKQ VAD WIND PROFILE AND 00Z AREA SOUNDINGS
SHOWS STRONG WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH MOST OF THE ATMOSPHERE FROM 900
MB ON UP...WHICH DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR BULK OF PRECIP HOLDING
TOGETHER THIS SIDE OF THE MTNS OVERNIGHT.

OVERALL...SEVERE THREAT (AND CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP) IS
WANING FOR THE AKQ CWA. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA FROM ABOUT 11 PM THROUGH 3 AM...BASED
ON AREA OF STORMS SEEN ON RADAR AND IR SATELLITE OVER THE NORTHERN
1/2 OF WV MOVING FROM WNW TO ESE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS. WILL
CARRY 50-60% POPS ACRS THE FAR NORTH FOR THESE AREAS. ELSEWHERE...LARGE
AREA OF CONVECTION IN NC WILL MISS MOST OF THE CWA TO THE SOUTH
PER CURRENT STORM MOTION/CORFIDI VECTORS. HAVE DROPPED POPS OFF TO
AROUND 40% FOR MOST OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC (WAS GOING TO DROP
IT EVEN FURTHER BUT GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
SOME NEW ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN WV/ERN KY WILL MAINTAIN
THESE 40% POPS. WHILE SHEAR REMAINS IMPRESSIVE OVERNIGHT...INSTABILITY
WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND WITH DOUBTS DEVELOPING AS TO PRECIP
COVERAGE...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST. WILL CONTINUE WITH
HWO MENTION OF POSSIBLE STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAINLY FOR
DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN THAT THERE WILL BE STRONG WINDS NOT FAR OFF
THE SFC. LOWS IN THE U60S NW TO THE LWR-MID 70S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONT / LEADING TROF PROGGED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST MONDAY MORN...
TAKING MOST IF NOT ALL PCPN WITH IT. THIS ENDS ANY SVR THREAT ACROSS
THE AREA. GIVEN LINGERING UPR LVL NRGY & MSTR...KEPT LOW CHC POPS
FAR EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH A PERIOD
OF NO POPS FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTN...FOLLOWED BY 20%/SLIGHT
CHC POPS MAINLY ALONG IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS DRNG THE MID-LATE
AFTN. GIVEN INCREASING AMTS OF AFTRN SUN & A DOWNSLOPING WEST
WIND...TMPS XPCTD TO WARM INTO THE U80S-L90S.

MODELS DVLP SCT CONVECTION ALONG THE STALLED FRNTL MON EVENING SO
HAVE CONFINED LOW CHC POPS TO COUNTIES BORDERING ALBEMARLE SND.
OTW...PT CLDY & COOLER. WEAK CAA SEEN AS WINDS BECOME NORTH. LOWS
IN THE 60S.

UPR LVL COOL POOL WILL COMBINE WITH DYTME HTNG AND LINGERING
TROFINESS OVR THE FA FOR ISLTD POPS TUE AFTRN. CAPPED POPS AT 20%
FOR NOW. PT SUNNY WITH BLO NRML TMPS. HIGHS IN THE L80S XCPT U70S
AT THE BEACHES. M CLR TO PT CLDY TUE NITE AND RTHR COMFY FOR LATE
JULY. LOWS M50S-M60S.

MSTLY SUNNY WITH BLO NRML TMPS WED AS HIGH PRS BUILDS OVR THE RGN.
HIGHS L-M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF OVR THE MID ATLC REGION WED NGT...WILL
RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND DEEPEN THU THRU SUN.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING OFF THE MID ATLC CST WED NGT INTO
FRI...WILL DRIFT BACK TWD THE CST LATE FRI THRU SUN. FOR NOW...WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR WED NGT INTO FRI...THEN INCREASE TO SLGT CHC
OR CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT THRU SUN. STILL FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WED NGT
AND THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY/LO LVL MOIST RETURNS
FOR FRI THRU SUN. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID
80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S
THU MORNG...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI MORNG...RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT
MORNG...AND RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SUN MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS AT ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING WITH RADAR SHOWING NO WX
OVER THE AKQ CWA. HOWEVER A LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVG THRU
KY/TN AND SW VA WILL MOVE ESE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MOST OF THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE CWA...BUT
PSBL AFFECTING ECG EARLY MORNING. ALSO...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OUT OF THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT AND INTO CENTRL VA BY EARLY TO MID
MORNING MON. THERE IS A CHC THAT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY
DEVELOP WITH AND IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO VA BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT STRONG. HOWEVER...DID OPT TO SHOW SOME SHOWERS
BY 08Z-10Z FOR ALL TAF SITES AND SOME VCTS FOR ECG.

MODELS SHOW FRONT MOVG OFFSHORE MON AFTN. EXPECT CLEARING BEHIND
THE BNDRY WITH MOSTLY W-NW FLOW AND WNDS GUSTING DURING THE DAY TO
25-30 KT.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST DURING THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG IS PSBL NEAR SUNRISE BUT WIDESPREAD
IFR IS NOT INDICATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TNGT THRU TUE. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA FM THE NW THIS EVENG...THEN CROSSES THE WTRS AND
OFF THE CST MON INTO MON NGT. SSW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT THRU TNGT. WINDS
WILL TURN TO THE W DURING MON...THEN NW AND N MON NGT INTO TUE MRNG.
NNE WINDS 15 KT OR LESS EXPECTED TUE THRU WED. SE OR E WINDS 10 KT
OR LESS WED NGT THRU THU NGT...BEFORE BECOMING NE AGAIN ON FRI.
WAVES 1 TO 3 FT...AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...JEF/LSA
MARINE...TMG






000
FXUS61 KLWX 280046
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
846 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
AND WESTERN MARYLAND...THE EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE AND
INTO THE NORTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY OF VIRGINIA UNTIL 2 AM.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO MOVE INTO/DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA
THAN SOME GUIDANCE HAD EARLIER SUGGESTED. HAVE HAD ONE CELL IN WV /IN
THE WATCH AREA/ THAT WE HAVE WARNED ON AND THAT HAS BEEN THE
STRONGEST CELL WITHIN OUR CWA THUS FAR.

18Z KIAD RAOB REVEALED A CAP ACROSS THE CWA /AND SOME DRY AIR TOO/...BUT
THAT CAP HAD DISAPPEARED BASED ON THE 00Z KIAD RAOB. DESPITE THE
SETTING OF THE SUN...EXPECTATION IS FOR AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION
DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING AS LARGER SCALE LIFT AND SHEAR
INCREASE. WITH THIS...THE SEVERE RISK WILL CONTINUE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA AND COULD ALSO EVENTUALLY SPREAD FURTHER DOWNSTREAM OF
THE CURRENT WATCH EARLY TONIGHT.

ACTUAL COLD FRONT LIKELY WON/T MAKE IT INTO THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE TROUGH WILL BE OVER NY MONDAY AND WHILE THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST. AS ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
MONDAY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
I-66 AND NORTH MONDAY AFTERNOON. NW WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

FCST MIN TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE HIGHLANDS
TO THE LOW 60S NEAR THE METROS AND WATERS. NRLY WINDS WIL CONTINUE
TUESDAY AND TEMPS WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S WHICH WILL FEEL
LIKE A FALL DAY FOR THE MID-ATLATNIC.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEAN TROUGHING WILL PERSIST ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. DRY AIR AND NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY AND COOLER
THAN NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD.

MODELS INDICATE THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE BACK WEST OF
THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
RE-ESTABLISHES ITS HOLD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THE TROUGH
MOVES BACK/REDEVELOPS TO OUR WEST...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
INCREASING THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY AS WELL AS THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND
WOULD SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN GIVEN THE LONG AND
PERSISTENT TRAJECTORY OF WIND OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO RIDING ALONG
A STALLED OR SLOW-MOVING FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHALLENGING THUNDERSTORM FORECAST THIS EVENING. HAD BACKED OFF ON
TSRA A COUPLE OF HOURS IN 00Z TAFS. WHILE THERE STILL REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE AND TIMING...CONTINUED THE OVERALL TREND IN
AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING...WITH
POTENTIAL IMPACT AT HUBS MAINLY 02Z-06Z TIME FRAME.

N-NW WINDS WILL MOVE IN AS A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS MONDAY.
SHRA AND -TSRA IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AS ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
NW WINDS AROUND 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS EXPECTED AT THE
TERMINALS.

NW FLOW GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS W/ VFR TUE-THU.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY CHANNELLING WILL LIKELY SUPPORT OCCASIONAL SCA GUSTS UP
THE BAY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ANY LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS. WINDS WILL
BECOME NWLY MONDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. A SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR
ALL THE WATERS MONDAY.

RELATIVELY BENIGN SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
NEARBY OR OVERHEAD TUE NIGHT-FRI IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS. WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE NEXT
WEEKEND...POSSIBLY TO SCA LEVELS BUT THAT IS UNCLEAR THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOMALIES HAVE DECREASED TO AROUND 1/2 FT ON THE WESTERN SHORE OF
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. AT HIGH TIDE...WATER LEVELS WOULD REMAIN BELOW
MINOR TIDAL FLOOD THRESHOLDS WITH THESE ANOMALIES.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ530-531-
     535-536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     540-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...BPP/HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...BPP/HAS/DFH
MARINE...BPP/HAS/DFH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BPP







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280003
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
803 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY MONDAY...THEN STALLS
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
DROPPED POPS TO HAVE A DRY FORECAST MOST AREAS THROUGH 00Z PER
LATEST CONDITIONS. MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BEYOND
00Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... HRRR & NAM CONTINUE TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON CRNT
CNDTNS SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THEIR SOLNS. EXPECT ONLY SCT ACTIVITY
INTO THE ERLY EVE HRS. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE WE ARE LOOKING AT 2 AREAS
OF CONVECTION. FIRST IS THE S/W NOW MOVG INTO SRN W VA. THIS
PROGGED TO TRACK AN AREA OF SHWRS/TSTRMS ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF
FA (MAINLY SOUTH OF I64) THIS EVE AND INTO ERY MORN HRS. SCND AREA
OF CONVECTION (CRNTLY DVLPNG OVR OHIO) PROGGED TO TRACK EAST
ACROSS SRN PA/MD AFTR MIDNIGHT CLIPPING NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES OF
FA. GIVEN DIFFERENT MODEL SOLNS AND DECENT UPR JET SPRT...WILL
KEEP HIGH CHC TO LOW END LIKELY POPS (40-60%) ACROSS THE RGN. SVR
THREAT (HAIL/WIND/HVY RAIN) CONTS...BUT THREAT IS NOT AS HIGH AS
IT LOOKED EARLIER GIVEN THE CLOUD COVERAGE AND PCPN PAST 8 HRS.
LOWS IN THE U60S NW TO THE LWR-MID 70S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONT / LEADING TROF PROGGED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST MONDAY MORN...
TAKING MOST IF NOT ALL PCPN WITH IT. THIS ENDS ANY SVR THREAT ACROSS
THE AREA. GIVEN LINGERING UPR LVL NRGY & MSTR...KEPT LOW CHC POPS
EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS THEN CONFINED SLGHT CHC POPS
TO IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS DRNG THE AFTRN. GIVEN INCREASING AMTS OF
AFTRN SUN & A DOWNSLOPING WEST WIND...TMPS XPCTD TO WARM INTO THE
U80S-L90S.

MODELS DVLP SCT CONVECTION ALONG THE STALLED FRNTL MON EVENING SO
HAVE CONFINED LOW CHC POPS TO COUNTIES BORDERING ALBEMARLE SND.
OTW...PT CLDY & COOLER. WEAK CAA SEEN AS WINDS BECOME NORTH. LOWS
IN THE 60S.

UPR LVL COOL POOL WILL COMBINE WITH DYTME HTNG AND LINGERING
TROFINESS OVR THE FA FOR ISLTD POPS TUE AFTRN. CAPPED POPS AT 20%
FOR NOW. PT SUNNY WITH BLO NRML TMPS. HIGHS IN THE L80S XCPT U70S
AT THE BEACHES. M CLR TO PT CLDY TUE NITE AND RTHR COMFY FOR LATE
JULY. LOWS M50S-M60S.

MSTLY SUNNY WITH BLO NRML TMPS WED AS HIGH PRS BUILDS OVR THE RGN.
HIGHS L-M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF OVR THE MID ATLC REGION WED NGT...WILL
RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND DEEPEN THU THRU SUN.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING OFF THE MID ATLC CST WED NGT INTO
FRI...WILL DRIFT BACK TWD THE CST LATE FRI THRU SUN. FOR NOW...WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR WED NGT INTO FRI...THEN INCREASE TO SLGT CHC
OR CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT THRU SUN. STILL FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WED NGT
AND THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY/LO LVL MOIST RETURNS
FOR FRI THRU SUN. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID
80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S
THU MORNG...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI MORNG...RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT
MORNG...AND RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SUN MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS AT ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING WITH RADAR SHOWING NO WX
OVER THE AKQ CWA. HOWEVER A LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVG THRU
KY/TN AND SW VA WILL MOVE ESE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MOST OF THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE CWA...BUT
PSBL AFFECTING ECG EARLY MORNING. ALSO...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OUT OF THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT AND INTO CENTRL VA BY EARLY TO MID
MORNING MON. THERE IS A CHC THAT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY
DEVELOP WITH AND IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO VA BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT STRONG. HOWEVER...DID OPT TO SHOW SOME SHOWERS
BY 08Z-10Z FOR ALL TAF SITES AND SOME VCTS FOR ECG.

MODELS SHOW FRONT MOVG OFFSHORE MON AFTN. EXPECT CLEARING BEHIND
THE BNDRY WITH MOSTLY W-NW FLOW AND WNDS GUSTING DURING THE DAY TO
25-30 KT.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST DURING THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG IS PSBL NEAR SUNRISE BUT WIDESPREAD
IFR IS NOT INDICATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TNGT THRU TUE. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA FM THE NW THIS EVENG...THEN CROSSES THE WTRS AND
OFF THE CST MON INTO MON NGT. SSW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT THRU TNGT. WINDS
WILL TURN TO THE W DURING MON...THEN NW AND N MON NGT INTO TUE MRNG.
NNE WINDS 15 KT OR LESS EXPECTED TUE THRU WED. SE OR E WINDS 10 KT
OR LESS WED NGT THRU THU NGT...BEFORE BECOMING NE AGAIN ON FRI.
WAVES 1 TO 3 FT...AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB/MPR
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...JEF/LSA
MARINE...TMG






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280003
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
803 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY MONDAY...THEN STALLS
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
DROPPED POPS TO HAVE A DRY FORECAST MOST AREAS THROUGH 00Z PER
LATEST CONDITIONS. MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BEYOND
00Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... HRRR & NAM CONTINUE TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON CRNT
CNDTNS SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THEIR SOLNS. EXPECT ONLY SCT ACTIVITY
INTO THE ERLY EVE HRS. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE WE ARE LOOKING AT 2 AREAS
OF CONVECTION. FIRST IS THE S/W NOW MOVG INTO SRN W VA. THIS
PROGGED TO TRACK AN AREA OF SHWRS/TSTRMS ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF
FA (MAINLY SOUTH OF I64) THIS EVE AND INTO ERY MORN HRS. SCND AREA
OF CONVECTION (CRNTLY DVLPNG OVR OHIO) PROGGED TO TRACK EAST
ACROSS SRN PA/MD AFTR MIDNIGHT CLIPPING NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES OF
FA. GIVEN DIFFERENT MODEL SOLNS AND DECENT UPR JET SPRT...WILL
KEEP HIGH CHC TO LOW END LIKELY POPS (40-60%) ACROSS THE RGN. SVR
THREAT (HAIL/WIND/HVY RAIN) CONTS...BUT THREAT IS NOT AS HIGH AS
IT LOOKED EARLIER GIVEN THE CLOUD COVERAGE AND PCPN PAST 8 HRS.
LOWS IN THE U60S NW TO THE LWR-MID 70S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONT / LEADING TROF PROGGED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST MONDAY MORN...
TAKING MOST IF NOT ALL PCPN WITH IT. THIS ENDS ANY SVR THREAT ACROSS
THE AREA. GIVEN LINGERING UPR LVL NRGY & MSTR...KEPT LOW CHC POPS
EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS THEN CONFINED SLGHT CHC POPS
TO IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS DRNG THE AFTRN. GIVEN INCREASING AMTS OF
AFTRN SUN & A DOWNSLOPING WEST WIND...TMPS XPCTD TO WARM INTO THE
U80S-L90S.

MODELS DVLP SCT CONVECTION ALONG THE STALLED FRNTL MON EVENING SO
HAVE CONFINED LOW CHC POPS TO COUNTIES BORDERING ALBEMARLE SND.
OTW...PT CLDY & COOLER. WEAK CAA SEEN AS WINDS BECOME NORTH. LOWS
IN THE 60S.

UPR LVL COOL POOL WILL COMBINE WITH DYTME HTNG AND LINGERING
TROFINESS OVR THE FA FOR ISLTD POPS TUE AFTRN. CAPPED POPS AT 20%
FOR NOW. PT SUNNY WITH BLO NRML TMPS. HIGHS IN THE L80S XCPT U70S
AT THE BEACHES. M CLR TO PT CLDY TUE NITE AND RTHR COMFY FOR LATE
JULY. LOWS M50S-M60S.

MSTLY SUNNY WITH BLO NRML TMPS WED AS HIGH PRS BUILDS OVR THE RGN.
HIGHS L-M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF OVR THE MID ATLC REGION WED NGT...WILL
RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND DEEPEN THU THRU SUN.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING OFF THE MID ATLC CST WED NGT INTO
FRI...WILL DRIFT BACK TWD THE CST LATE FRI THRU SUN. FOR NOW...WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR WED NGT INTO FRI...THEN INCREASE TO SLGT CHC
OR CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT THRU SUN. STILL FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WED NGT
AND THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY/LO LVL MOIST RETURNS
FOR FRI THRU SUN. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID
80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S
THU MORNG...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI MORNG...RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT
MORNG...AND RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SUN MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS AT ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING WITH RADAR SHOWING NO WX
OVER THE AKQ CWA. HOWEVER A LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVG THRU
KY/TN AND SW VA WILL MOVE ESE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MOST OF THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE CWA...BUT
PSBL AFFECTING ECG EARLY MORNING. ALSO...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OUT OF THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT AND INTO CENTRL VA BY EARLY TO MID
MORNING MON. THERE IS A CHC THAT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY
DEVELOP WITH AND IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO VA BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT STRONG. HOWEVER...DID OPT TO SHOW SOME SHOWERS
BY 08Z-10Z FOR ALL TAF SITES AND SOME VCTS FOR ECG.

MODELS SHOW FRONT MOVG OFFSHORE MON AFTN. EXPECT CLEARING BEHIND
THE BNDRY WITH MOSTLY W-NW FLOW AND WNDS GUSTING DURING THE DAY TO
25-30 KT.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST DURING THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG IS PSBL NEAR SUNRISE BUT WIDESPREAD
IFR IS NOT INDICATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TNGT THRU TUE. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA FM THE NW THIS EVENG...THEN CROSSES THE WTRS AND
OFF THE CST MON INTO MON NGT. SSW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT THRU TNGT. WINDS
WILL TURN TO THE W DURING MON...THEN NW AND N MON NGT INTO TUE MRNG.
NNE WINDS 15 KT OR LESS EXPECTED TUE THRU WED. SE OR E WINDS 10 KT
OR LESS WED NGT THRU THU NGT...BEFORE BECOMING NE AGAIN ON FRI.
WAVES 1 TO 3 FT...AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB/MPR
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...JEF/LSA
MARINE...TMG







000
FXUS61 KRNK 272351
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
751 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THESE FEATURES MAY
TRIGGER STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY
TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY
MONDAY...RESULTING IN COOLER WEATHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM EDT SUNDAY...

TORNADO WATCH 448 ISSUED FOR A SMALL PART OF SW VA AND MOST OF OUR
NW NC COUNTIES UNTIL 1 AM EDT. NOT ENTIRELY CONFIDENT THAT MUCH OF
THE CWA WILL SEE SEVERE THREAT...SO IN DISCUSSION WITH SPC AM
HOLDING OFF ON ANY FURTHER WATCHES UNTIL WE SEE IF ONE IS NEEDED
FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. TIMING OF FRONT SUGGESTS THAT WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO CANCEL MUCH...IF NOT ALL OF THIS WATCH 448...BEFORE
1 AM EDT. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ZONES AT THIS TIME
AS POP AND TEMP TRENDS LOOK GOOD.

AS OF 200 PM EDT SUNDAY...

EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLIER IMPULSE SLOWLY
ERODING IN SPOTS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST BUT HAS ACTED TO KEEP A LID
ON INSTABILITY SO FAR GIVEN OVERALL LACK OF HEATING. THIS
EVIDENCED VIA THE SPECIAL 18Z SOUNDING WHICH SHOWS QUITE A CAP
ALOFT WHICH WILL TAKE A LOT MORE HEATING OR DYNAMICS LATER TO
OVERCOME. ODOR NEXT MCS INDUCED WAVE ROLLING SE OUT OF KY THE
MAIN PLAYER INTO LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING AS IT JETS SE
IN ADVANCE OF THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT CURRENTLY BACK IN THE
MIDWEST. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO NOT HANDLE THE ONGOING
SCENARIO VERY WELL...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST NSSL WRF TAKES THIS
CONVECTION SE INTO OUR FAR SW COUNTIES WHERE GUIDANCE SHOWS BETTER
THETA-E RIDGING AND SOMEWHAT BETTER LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC
SUPPORT WITHIN A BETTER SW JET ALOFT. OTHER AREA TO WATCH WILL BE
OVER THE FAR WEST THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT AS THE ACTUAL
COLD FRONT AND UPPER COLD POOL DYNAMICS ARRIVE ACROSS THE FAR
WEST. HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE VEERING MORE WESTERLY BY THEN AND ANY
INSTABILITY WANING WHICH SHOULD PUT THE BEST FOCUS ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES WHERE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE BETTER COVERAGE. THIS
ACTIVITY LIKELY TO HAVE A HARD TIME SPILLING EAST BUT KEPT IN
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE EVENING EAST WHILE GOING LIKELYS TO LOW
END CAT FAR WEST EARLY ON.

85H FRONT WILL FINALLY SURGE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...REACHING THE PIEDMONT TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. MUCH DRIER
AIR ARRIVING ALOFT SHOULD CUT INTO ANY LEFTOVER SHRA COVERAGE
WITH ONLY SOME LOW CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS REMAINING IN THE
UPSLOPE REGIONS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN GUSTY ON THE RIDGES
FROM THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ANY ADVISORY
LEVELS ALTHOUGH QUITE BLUSTERY FOR LATE SUMMER. KEPT LOWS MORE IN
LINE WITH THE WARMER MET MOS EAST AND TOOK A BLEND WEST WHERE COOL
ADVECTION MAY BE OFFSET BY MIXING.

5H TROF CROSSES EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO
START BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROUNDING DOWN THE BACK OF THE COOL POOL MAY HELP
TO ENHANCE THE SHOWERS AS IT COINCIDES WITH THE COLDEST 85H TEMPS
AND MAX HEATING. THUS BOOSTED POPS WESTERN SLOPES TO A PERIOD OF
LOW LIKELYS MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A QUICK CUTOFF TO SHRA BLUE
RIDGE AND POINTS EAST WHERE DOWNSLOPING SHOULD ALLOW FOR LESS
CLOUDS. ODOR WILL BE A BREEZY AND COOL DAY FOR LATE JULY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 60S WHERE CLOUDS
PERSIST AND ALONG HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET WELL
INTO THE 80S UNDER DRY DOWNSLOPE PIEDMONT BUT ONLY 75-82 BLUE
RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT SATURDAY...

WEST TO NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE BLACKSBURG
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS SERIES OF WEAK SHORT
WAVE TROFS EMBEDDED IN UPPER FLOW HELP ANCHOR PIN-WHEELING UPPER
TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

COOLER AIR ALOFT...WEAK FORCING FROM INITIAL SHORT WAVE...AND WEAK
UPSLOPING MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE WESTERN FLANKS OF THE APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY NIGHT...AND PERHAPS
DIURNALLY DRIVEN EVEN INTO TUESDAY.  HOWEVER...DESPITE ADDITIONAL
WEAK STREAM ENERGY...ARRIVAL OF SURFACE RIDGE AND AMPLIFICATION OF
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO LIMIT THREAT FOR ANY
ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

UPSLOPING CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST SHOULD MAINTAIN UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NOT LIKELY TO
CLIMB OUT OF THE 60S ON EITHER TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...ANY INFLUENCE OF COLD
ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET BY DOWNSLOPING/COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND
GOOD INSOLATION SUCH THAT HIGHS REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S...YET STILL ~5F LOWER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.

NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE LARGELY GOVERNED BY EXTENT OF MIXING AND
CLOUD COVER. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE/IF CLOUDS CAN CLEAR...AND
ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING WILL
MORE READILY OCCUR...SHOULD EXPERIENCE AT LEAST SPOTTY READINGS DOWN
INTO THE 40S. READINGS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL BE A BIT
MILDER...MAINLY 50S...YET STILL 5-10F BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A SURFACE HIGH THURSDAY OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN WILL SHIFT EAST
TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AT THE MID LEVELS A
PERSISTENT TROUGH IS SET UP OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN US. THURSDAY LACKS LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE SO EXPECT
THE DAY TO BE DRY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE FOR FRIDAY AND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES PIVOT ACROSS
THE REGION AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING AND TAPER OFF TO
JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING. FOCUS OF THE HIGHEST
CHANCE POPS ARE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE WILL
BE LOCATED...WITH LOWER CHANCE POPS OUT EAST.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH 850MB TEMPS
AROUND +16C. THIS WILL CORRESPOND TO SURFACE HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID
80S OUT EAST AND NEAR 80 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST ON FRIDAY THE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM N/NW TO AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION. THIS WILL WEDGE THE AREA IN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. WITH THE INCREASED LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. THIS ALONG WITH EXPECTED SCATTERED PRECIP AND 850MB
TEMPS FALLING TO +11-14C...SURFACE HIGH TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT SUNDAY...

STILL AWAITING POTENTIAL ARRIVAL OF MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
INTO THE CWA AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES WITH STRONG STORMS STILL
POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN AREAS OF BETTER INSTABILITY/HEATING ACROSS
SOUTHSIDE/PIEDMONT. THIS COULD IMPACT ROA/LYH/DAN IN THE 02Z-06Z
TIME FRAME...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW AS CIRRUS
SHIELD FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION AND MORNING ACTIVITY HAS
ESSENTIALLY PUT A LID ON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THIS POINT ACROSS
MOST OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. OF GREATER LIKELIHOOD IS
THAT A LINE OF MOST LIKELY SUBSEVERE SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT/UPPER TROUGH AS ITS SWINGS RAPIDLY THROUGH THE CWA IN
THE 04Z-08Z TIME FRAME. GIVEN THAT THERE WILL BE A LARGE UPSLOPE
COMPONENT AT THAT TIME...EXPECT THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF
SHRA/TSRA TO BE ACROSS THE WV COUNTIES...BUT ENOUGH DYNAMICS TO
SUPPORT MENTION OF SHRA EASTWARD EVEN INTO THE PIEDMONT. MOST
LIKELY THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR CIGS LWB-BLF...TO LOW END
VFR CIGS FURTHER EASTWARD. ALL PCPN SHOULD BE ENDING BY 10Z
MON...BUT EXTENSIVE UPSLOPE SC WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT WV MON
WITH A WINTERLIKE SETUP AND STRONG NW FLOW AND STRONG CAA. EXPECT
MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL ALL DAY LWB-BLF...AND POTENTIALLY EVEN BCB AT
TIMES. FURTHER EAST...CLOUDS SHOULD SCT OUT AND CIGS WILL BE
MOSTLY VFR. VSBYS MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE ISOLD MVFR IN TIME AND
LOCATION DURING SHRA/TSRA. MAIN CONCERN AFT 06Z AND THROUGH THE
DAY MON WILL BE STRONG NW WINDS AT SPEEDS OF 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS
25-30KTS...ESPECIALLY AFT 14Z MON. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR
THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN TSRA POTENTIAL THROUGH 10Z MON.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FOR TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
LATE NIGHT FOG KBCB/KLWB ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVELS MAY STAY DRY
ENOUGH FOR LESS FOG COVERAGE.

VARIABLE CIGS EXPECTED UNDER ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW THROUGHOUT THE
REST OF THE WEEK. A FEW -SHRA NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION
ACROSS EASTERN WV...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. TYPICAL FOG
POTENTIAL LESS THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK BECAUSE OF TURBULENT MIXING AND PREVAILING CYCLONIC FLOW.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE UPPER LOW RETROGRADES JUST
WEST OF THE REGION...INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA BUT MAINLY
SW OF THE TAF SITES INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE WEATHER RADIO AT HINTON WEST VA TRANSMITTING ON FREQUENCY
162.425 MHZ REMAINS OFF THE AIR LIKELY DUE TO PHONE LINE PROBLEMS.
RESTORATION OF SERVICE IS NOT EXPECTED BEFORE NOON ON MONDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...JH/RAB
SHORT TERM...WERT
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...JH/RAB
EQUIPMENT...JH




000
FXUS61 KRNK 272351
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
751 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THESE FEATURES MAY
TRIGGER STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY
TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY
MONDAY...RESULTING IN COOLER WEATHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM EDT SUNDAY...

TORNADO WATCH 448 ISSUED FOR A SMALL PART OF SW VA AND MOST OF OUR
NW NC COUNTIES UNTIL 1 AM EDT. NOT ENTIRELY CONFIDENT THAT MUCH OF
THE CWA WILL SEE SEVERE THREAT...SO IN DISCUSSION WITH SPC AM
HOLDING OFF ON ANY FURTHER WATCHES UNTIL WE SEE IF ONE IS NEEDED
FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. TIMING OF FRONT SUGGESTS THAT WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO CANCEL MUCH...IF NOT ALL OF THIS WATCH 448...BEFORE
1 AM EDT. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ZONES AT THIS TIME
AS POP AND TEMP TRENDS LOOK GOOD.

AS OF 200 PM EDT SUNDAY...

EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLIER IMPULSE SLOWLY
ERODING IN SPOTS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST BUT HAS ACTED TO KEEP A LID
ON INSTABILITY SO FAR GIVEN OVERALL LACK OF HEATING. THIS
EVIDENCED VIA THE SPECIAL 18Z SOUNDING WHICH SHOWS QUITE A CAP
ALOFT WHICH WILL TAKE A LOT MORE HEATING OR DYNAMICS LATER TO
OVERCOME. ODOR NEXT MCS INDUCED WAVE ROLLING SE OUT OF KY THE
MAIN PLAYER INTO LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING AS IT JETS SE
IN ADVANCE OF THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT CURRENTLY BACK IN THE
MIDWEST. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO NOT HANDLE THE ONGOING
SCENARIO VERY WELL...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST NSSL WRF TAKES THIS
CONVECTION SE INTO OUR FAR SW COUNTIES WHERE GUIDANCE SHOWS BETTER
THETA-E RIDGING AND SOMEWHAT BETTER LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC
SUPPORT WITHIN A BETTER SW JET ALOFT. OTHER AREA TO WATCH WILL BE
OVER THE FAR WEST THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT AS THE ACTUAL
COLD FRONT AND UPPER COLD POOL DYNAMICS ARRIVE ACROSS THE FAR
WEST. HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE VEERING MORE WESTERLY BY THEN AND ANY
INSTABILITY WANING WHICH SHOULD PUT THE BEST FOCUS ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES WHERE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE BETTER COVERAGE. THIS
ACTIVITY LIKELY TO HAVE A HARD TIME SPILLING EAST BUT KEPT IN
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE EVENING EAST WHILE GOING LIKELYS TO LOW
END CAT FAR WEST EARLY ON.

85H FRONT WILL FINALLY SURGE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...REACHING THE PIEDMONT TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. MUCH DRIER
AIR ARRIVING ALOFT SHOULD CUT INTO ANY LEFTOVER SHRA COVERAGE
WITH ONLY SOME LOW CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS REMAINING IN THE
UPSLOPE REGIONS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN GUSTY ON THE RIDGES
FROM THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ANY ADVISORY
LEVELS ALTHOUGH QUITE BLUSTERY FOR LATE SUMMER. KEPT LOWS MORE IN
LINE WITH THE WARMER MET MOS EAST AND TOOK A BLEND WEST WHERE COOL
ADVECTION MAY BE OFFSET BY MIXING.

5H TROF CROSSES EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO
START BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROUNDING DOWN THE BACK OF THE COOL POOL MAY HELP
TO ENHANCE THE SHOWERS AS IT COINCIDES WITH THE COLDEST 85H TEMPS
AND MAX HEATING. THUS BOOSTED POPS WESTERN SLOPES TO A PERIOD OF
LOW LIKELYS MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A QUICK CUTOFF TO SHRA BLUE
RIDGE AND POINTS EAST WHERE DOWNSLOPING SHOULD ALLOW FOR LESS
CLOUDS. ODOR WILL BE A BREEZY AND COOL DAY FOR LATE JULY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 60S WHERE CLOUDS
PERSIST AND ALONG HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET WELL
INTO THE 80S UNDER DRY DOWNSLOPE PIEDMONT BUT ONLY 75-82 BLUE
RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT SATURDAY...

WEST TO NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE BLACKSBURG
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS SERIES OF WEAK SHORT
WAVE TROFS EMBEDDED IN UPPER FLOW HELP ANCHOR PIN-WHEELING UPPER
TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

COOLER AIR ALOFT...WEAK FORCING FROM INITIAL SHORT WAVE...AND WEAK
UPSLOPING MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE WESTERN FLANKS OF THE APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY NIGHT...AND PERHAPS
DIURNALLY DRIVEN EVEN INTO TUESDAY.  HOWEVER...DESPITE ADDITIONAL
WEAK STREAM ENERGY...ARRIVAL OF SURFACE RIDGE AND AMPLIFICATION OF
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO LIMIT THREAT FOR ANY
ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

UPSLOPING CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST SHOULD MAINTAIN UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NOT LIKELY TO
CLIMB OUT OF THE 60S ON EITHER TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...ANY INFLUENCE OF COLD
ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET BY DOWNSLOPING/COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND
GOOD INSOLATION SUCH THAT HIGHS REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S...YET STILL ~5F LOWER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.

NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE LARGELY GOVERNED BY EXTENT OF MIXING AND
CLOUD COVER. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE/IF CLOUDS CAN CLEAR...AND
ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING WILL
MORE READILY OCCUR...SHOULD EXPERIENCE AT LEAST SPOTTY READINGS DOWN
INTO THE 40S. READINGS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL BE A BIT
MILDER...MAINLY 50S...YET STILL 5-10F BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A SURFACE HIGH THURSDAY OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN WILL SHIFT EAST
TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AT THE MID LEVELS A
PERSISTENT TROUGH IS SET UP OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN US. THURSDAY LACKS LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE SO EXPECT
THE DAY TO BE DRY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE FOR FRIDAY AND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES PIVOT ACROSS
THE REGION AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING AND TAPER OFF TO
JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING. FOCUS OF THE HIGHEST
CHANCE POPS ARE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE WILL
BE LOCATED...WITH LOWER CHANCE POPS OUT EAST.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH 850MB TEMPS
AROUND +16C. THIS WILL CORRESPOND TO SURFACE HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID
80S OUT EAST AND NEAR 80 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST ON FRIDAY THE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM N/NW TO AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION. THIS WILL WEDGE THE AREA IN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. WITH THE INCREASED LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. THIS ALONG WITH EXPECTED SCATTERED PRECIP AND 850MB
TEMPS FALLING TO +11-14C...SURFACE HIGH TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT SUNDAY...

STILL AWAITING POTENTIAL ARRIVAL OF MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
INTO THE CWA AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES WITH STRONG STORMS STILL
POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN AREAS OF BETTER INSTABILITY/HEATING ACROSS
SOUTHSIDE/PIEDMONT. THIS COULD IMPACT ROA/LYH/DAN IN THE 02Z-06Z
TIME FRAME...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW AS CIRRUS
SHIELD FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION AND MORNING ACTIVITY HAS
ESSENTIALLY PUT A LID ON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THIS POINT ACROSS
MOST OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. OF GREATER LIKELIHOOD IS
THAT A LINE OF MOST LIKELY SUBSEVERE SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT/UPPER TROUGH AS ITS SWINGS RAPIDLY THROUGH THE CWA IN
THE 04Z-08Z TIME FRAME. GIVEN THAT THERE WILL BE A LARGE UPSLOPE
COMPONENT AT THAT TIME...EXPECT THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF
SHRA/TSRA TO BE ACROSS THE WV COUNTIES...BUT ENOUGH DYNAMICS TO
SUPPORT MENTION OF SHRA EASTWARD EVEN INTO THE PIEDMONT. MOST
LIKELY THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR CIGS LWB-BLF...TO LOW END
VFR CIGS FURTHER EASTWARD. ALL PCPN SHOULD BE ENDING BY 10Z
MON...BUT EXTENSIVE UPSLOPE SC WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT WV MON
WITH A WINTERLIKE SETUP AND STRONG NW FLOW AND STRONG CAA. EXPECT
MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL ALL DAY LWB-BLF...AND POTENTIALLY EVEN BCB AT
TIMES. FURTHER EAST...CLOUDS SHOULD SCT OUT AND CIGS WILL BE
MOSTLY VFR. VSBYS MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE ISOLD MVFR IN TIME AND
LOCATION DURING SHRA/TSRA. MAIN CONCERN AFT 06Z AND THROUGH THE
DAY MON WILL BE STRONG NW WINDS AT SPEEDS OF 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS
25-30KTS...ESPECIALLY AFT 14Z MON. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR
THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN TSRA POTENTIAL THROUGH 10Z MON.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FOR TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
LATE NIGHT FOG KBCB/KLWB ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVELS MAY STAY DRY
ENOUGH FOR LESS FOG COVERAGE.

VARIABLE CIGS EXPECTED UNDER ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW THROUGHOUT THE
REST OF THE WEEK. A FEW -SHRA NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION
ACROSS EASTERN WV...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. TYPICAL FOG
POTENTIAL LESS THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK BECAUSE OF TURBULENT MIXING AND PREVAILING CYCLONIC FLOW.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE UPPER LOW RETROGRADES JUST
WEST OF THE REGION...INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA BUT MAINLY
SW OF THE TAF SITES INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE WEATHER RADIO AT HINTON WEST VA TRANSMITTING ON FREQUENCY
162.425 MHZ REMAINS OFF THE AIR LIKELY DUE TO PHONE LINE PROBLEMS.
RESTORATION OF SERVICE IS NOT EXPECTED BEFORE NOON ON MONDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...JH/RAB
SHORT TERM...WERT
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...JH/RAB
EQUIPMENT...JH




000
FXUS61 KRNK 272351
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
751 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THESE FEATURES MAY
TRIGGER STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY
TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY
MONDAY...RESULTING IN COOLER WEATHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM EDT SUNDAY...

TORNADO WATCH 448 ISSUED FOR A SMALL PART OF SW VA AND MOST OF OUR
NW NC COUNTIES UNTIL 1 AM EDT. NOT ENTIRELY CONFIDENT THAT MUCH OF
THE CWA WILL SEE SEVERE THREAT...SO IN DISCUSSION WITH SPC AM
HOLDING OFF ON ANY FURTHER WATCHES UNTIL WE SEE IF ONE IS NEEDED
FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. TIMING OF FRONT SUGGESTS THAT WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO CANCEL MUCH...IF NOT ALL OF THIS WATCH 448...BEFORE
1 AM EDT. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ZONES AT THIS TIME
AS POP AND TEMP TRENDS LOOK GOOD.

AS OF 200 PM EDT SUNDAY...

EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLIER IMPULSE SLOWLY
ERODING IN SPOTS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST BUT HAS ACTED TO KEEP A LID
ON INSTABILITY SO FAR GIVEN OVERALL LACK OF HEATING. THIS
EVIDENCED VIA THE SPECIAL 18Z SOUNDING WHICH SHOWS QUITE A CAP
ALOFT WHICH WILL TAKE A LOT MORE HEATING OR DYNAMICS LATER TO
OVERCOME. ODOR NEXT MCS INDUCED WAVE ROLLING SE OUT OF KY THE
MAIN PLAYER INTO LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING AS IT JETS SE
IN ADVANCE OF THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT CURRENTLY BACK IN THE
MIDWEST. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO NOT HANDLE THE ONGOING
SCENARIO VERY WELL...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST NSSL WRF TAKES THIS
CONVECTION SE INTO OUR FAR SW COUNTIES WHERE GUIDANCE SHOWS BETTER
THETA-E RIDGING AND SOMEWHAT BETTER LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC
SUPPORT WITHIN A BETTER SW JET ALOFT. OTHER AREA TO WATCH WILL BE
OVER THE FAR WEST THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT AS THE ACTUAL
COLD FRONT AND UPPER COLD POOL DYNAMICS ARRIVE ACROSS THE FAR
WEST. HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE VEERING MORE WESTERLY BY THEN AND ANY
INSTABILITY WANING WHICH SHOULD PUT THE BEST FOCUS ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES WHERE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE BETTER COVERAGE. THIS
ACTIVITY LIKELY TO HAVE A HARD TIME SPILLING EAST BUT KEPT IN
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE EVENING EAST WHILE GOING LIKELYS TO LOW
END CAT FAR WEST EARLY ON.

85H FRONT WILL FINALLY SURGE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...REACHING THE PIEDMONT TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. MUCH DRIER
AIR ARRIVING ALOFT SHOULD CUT INTO ANY LEFTOVER SHRA COVERAGE
WITH ONLY SOME LOW CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS REMAINING IN THE
UPSLOPE REGIONS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN GUSTY ON THE RIDGES
FROM THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ANY ADVISORY
LEVELS ALTHOUGH QUITE BLUSTERY FOR LATE SUMMER. KEPT LOWS MORE IN
LINE WITH THE WARMER MET MOS EAST AND TOOK A BLEND WEST WHERE COOL
ADVECTION MAY BE OFFSET BY MIXING.

5H TROF CROSSES EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO
START BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROUNDING DOWN THE BACK OF THE COOL POOL MAY HELP
TO ENHANCE THE SHOWERS AS IT COINCIDES WITH THE COLDEST 85H TEMPS
AND MAX HEATING. THUS BOOSTED POPS WESTERN SLOPES TO A PERIOD OF
LOW LIKELYS MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A QUICK CUTOFF TO SHRA BLUE
RIDGE AND POINTS EAST WHERE DOWNSLOPING SHOULD ALLOW FOR LESS
CLOUDS. ODOR WILL BE A BREEZY AND COOL DAY FOR LATE JULY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 60S WHERE CLOUDS
PERSIST AND ALONG HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET WELL
INTO THE 80S UNDER DRY DOWNSLOPE PIEDMONT BUT ONLY 75-82 BLUE
RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT SATURDAY...

WEST TO NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE BLACKSBURG
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS SERIES OF WEAK SHORT
WAVE TROFS EMBEDDED IN UPPER FLOW HELP ANCHOR PIN-WHEELING UPPER
TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

COOLER AIR ALOFT...WEAK FORCING FROM INITIAL SHORT WAVE...AND WEAK
UPSLOPING MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE WESTERN FLANKS OF THE APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY NIGHT...AND PERHAPS
DIURNALLY DRIVEN EVEN INTO TUESDAY.  HOWEVER...DESPITE ADDITIONAL
WEAK STREAM ENERGY...ARRIVAL OF SURFACE RIDGE AND AMPLIFICATION OF
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO LIMIT THREAT FOR ANY
ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

UPSLOPING CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST SHOULD MAINTAIN UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NOT LIKELY TO
CLIMB OUT OF THE 60S ON EITHER TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...ANY INFLUENCE OF COLD
ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET BY DOWNSLOPING/COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND
GOOD INSOLATION SUCH THAT HIGHS REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S...YET STILL ~5F LOWER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.

NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE LARGELY GOVERNED BY EXTENT OF MIXING AND
CLOUD COVER. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE/IF CLOUDS CAN CLEAR...AND
ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING WILL
MORE READILY OCCUR...SHOULD EXPERIENCE AT LEAST SPOTTY READINGS DOWN
INTO THE 40S. READINGS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL BE A BIT
MILDER...MAINLY 50S...YET STILL 5-10F BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A SURFACE HIGH THURSDAY OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN WILL SHIFT EAST
TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AT THE MID LEVELS A
PERSISTENT TROUGH IS SET UP OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN US. THURSDAY LACKS LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE SO EXPECT
THE DAY TO BE DRY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE FOR FRIDAY AND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES PIVOT ACROSS
THE REGION AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING AND TAPER OFF TO
JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING. FOCUS OF THE HIGHEST
CHANCE POPS ARE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE WILL
BE LOCATED...WITH LOWER CHANCE POPS OUT EAST.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH 850MB TEMPS
AROUND +16C. THIS WILL CORRESPOND TO SURFACE HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID
80S OUT EAST AND NEAR 80 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST ON FRIDAY THE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM N/NW TO AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION. THIS WILL WEDGE THE AREA IN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. WITH THE INCREASED LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. THIS ALONG WITH EXPECTED SCATTERED PRECIP AND 850MB
TEMPS FALLING TO +11-14C...SURFACE HIGH TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT SUNDAY...

STILL AWAITING POTENTIAL ARRIVAL OF MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
INTO THE CWA AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES WITH STRONG STORMS STILL
POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN AREAS OF BETTER INSTABILITY/HEATING ACROSS
SOUTHSIDE/PIEDMONT. THIS COULD IMPACT ROA/LYH/DAN IN THE 02Z-06Z
TIME FRAME...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW AS CIRRUS
SHIELD FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION AND MORNING ACTIVITY HAS
ESSENTIALLY PUT A LID ON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THIS POINT ACROSS
MOST OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. OF GREATER LIKELIHOOD IS
THAT A LINE OF MOST LIKELY SUBSEVERE SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT/UPPER TROUGH AS ITS SWINGS RAPIDLY THROUGH THE CWA IN
THE 04Z-08Z TIME FRAME. GIVEN THAT THERE WILL BE A LARGE UPSLOPE
COMPONENT AT THAT TIME...EXPECT THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF
SHRA/TSRA TO BE ACROSS THE WV COUNTIES...BUT ENOUGH DYNAMICS TO
SUPPORT MENTION OF SHRA EASTWARD EVEN INTO THE PIEDMONT. MOST
LIKELY THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR CIGS LWB-BLF...TO LOW END
VFR CIGS FURTHER EASTWARD. ALL PCPN SHOULD BE ENDING BY 10Z
MON...BUT EXTENSIVE UPSLOPE SC WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT WV MON
WITH A WINTERLIKE SETUP AND STRONG NW FLOW AND STRONG CAA. EXPECT
MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL ALL DAY LWB-BLF...AND POTENTIALLY EVEN BCB AT
TIMES. FURTHER EAST...CLOUDS SHOULD SCT OUT AND CIGS WILL BE
MOSTLY VFR. VSBYS MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE ISOLD MVFR IN TIME AND
LOCATION DURING SHRA/TSRA. MAIN CONCERN AFT 06Z AND THROUGH THE
DAY MON WILL BE STRONG NW WINDS AT SPEEDS OF 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS
25-30KTS...ESPECIALLY AFT 14Z MON. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR
THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN TSRA POTENTIAL THROUGH 10Z MON.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FOR TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
LATE NIGHT FOG KBCB/KLWB ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVELS MAY STAY DRY
ENOUGH FOR LESS FOG COVERAGE.

VARIABLE CIGS EXPECTED UNDER ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW THROUGHOUT THE
REST OF THE WEEK. A FEW -SHRA NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION
ACROSS EASTERN WV...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. TYPICAL FOG
POTENTIAL LESS THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK BECAUSE OF TURBULENT MIXING AND PREVAILING CYCLONIC FLOW.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE UPPER LOW RETROGRADES JUST
WEST OF THE REGION...INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA BUT MAINLY
SW OF THE TAF SITES INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE WEATHER RADIO AT HINTON WEST VA TRANSMITTING ON FREQUENCY
162.425 MHZ REMAINS OFF THE AIR LIKELY DUE TO PHONE LINE PROBLEMS.
RESTORATION OF SERVICE IS NOT EXPECTED BEFORE NOON ON MONDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...JH/RAB
SHORT TERM...WERT
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...JH/RAB
EQUIPMENT...JH




000
FXUS61 KRNK 272351
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
751 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THESE FEATURES MAY
TRIGGER STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY
TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY
MONDAY...RESULTING IN COOLER WEATHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM EDT SUNDAY...

TORNADO WATCH 448 ISSUED FOR A SMALL PART OF SW VA AND MOST OF OUR
NW NC COUNTIES UNTIL 1 AM EDT. NOT ENTIRELY CONFIDENT THAT MUCH OF
THE CWA WILL SEE SEVERE THREAT...SO IN DISCUSSION WITH SPC AM
HOLDING OFF ON ANY FURTHER WATCHES UNTIL WE SEE IF ONE IS NEEDED
FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. TIMING OF FRONT SUGGESTS THAT WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO CANCEL MUCH...IF NOT ALL OF THIS WATCH 448...BEFORE
1 AM EDT. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ZONES AT THIS TIME
AS POP AND TEMP TRENDS LOOK GOOD.

AS OF 200 PM EDT SUNDAY...

EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLIER IMPULSE SLOWLY
ERODING IN SPOTS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST BUT HAS ACTED TO KEEP A LID
ON INSTABILITY SO FAR GIVEN OVERALL LACK OF HEATING. THIS
EVIDENCED VIA THE SPECIAL 18Z SOUNDING WHICH SHOWS QUITE A CAP
ALOFT WHICH WILL TAKE A LOT MORE HEATING OR DYNAMICS LATER TO
OVERCOME. ODOR NEXT MCS INDUCED WAVE ROLLING SE OUT OF KY THE
MAIN PLAYER INTO LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING AS IT JETS SE
IN ADVANCE OF THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT CURRENTLY BACK IN THE
MIDWEST. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO NOT HANDLE THE ONGOING
SCENARIO VERY WELL...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST NSSL WRF TAKES THIS
CONVECTION SE INTO OUR FAR SW COUNTIES WHERE GUIDANCE SHOWS BETTER
THETA-E RIDGING AND SOMEWHAT BETTER LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC
SUPPORT WITHIN A BETTER SW JET ALOFT. OTHER AREA TO WATCH WILL BE
OVER THE FAR WEST THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT AS THE ACTUAL
COLD FRONT AND UPPER COLD POOL DYNAMICS ARRIVE ACROSS THE FAR
WEST. HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE VEERING MORE WESTERLY BY THEN AND ANY
INSTABILITY WANING WHICH SHOULD PUT THE BEST FOCUS ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES WHERE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE BETTER COVERAGE. THIS
ACTIVITY LIKELY TO HAVE A HARD TIME SPILLING EAST BUT KEPT IN
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE EVENING EAST WHILE GOING LIKELYS TO LOW
END CAT FAR WEST EARLY ON.

85H FRONT WILL FINALLY SURGE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...REACHING THE PIEDMONT TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. MUCH DRIER
AIR ARRIVING ALOFT SHOULD CUT INTO ANY LEFTOVER SHRA COVERAGE
WITH ONLY SOME LOW CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS REMAINING IN THE
UPSLOPE REGIONS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN GUSTY ON THE RIDGES
FROM THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ANY ADVISORY
LEVELS ALTHOUGH QUITE BLUSTERY FOR LATE SUMMER. KEPT LOWS MORE IN
LINE WITH THE WARMER MET MOS EAST AND TOOK A BLEND WEST WHERE COOL
ADVECTION MAY BE OFFSET BY MIXING.

5H TROF CROSSES EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO
START BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROUNDING DOWN THE BACK OF THE COOL POOL MAY HELP
TO ENHANCE THE SHOWERS AS IT COINCIDES WITH THE COLDEST 85H TEMPS
AND MAX HEATING. THUS BOOSTED POPS WESTERN SLOPES TO A PERIOD OF
LOW LIKELYS MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A QUICK CUTOFF TO SHRA BLUE
RIDGE AND POINTS EAST WHERE DOWNSLOPING SHOULD ALLOW FOR LESS
CLOUDS. ODOR WILL BE A BREEZY AND COOL DAY FOR LATE JULY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 60S WHERE CLOUDS
PERSIST AND ALONG HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET WELL
INTO THE 80S UNDER DRY DOWNSLOPE PIEDMONT BUT ONLY 75-82 BLUE
RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT SATURDAY...

WEST TO NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE BLACKSBURG
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS SERIES OF WEAK SHORT
WAVE TROFS EMBEDDED IN UPPER FLOW HELP ANCHOR PIN-WHEELING UPPER
TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

COOLER AIR ALOFT...WEAK FORCING FROM INITIAL SHORT WAVE...AND WEAK
UPSLOPING MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE WESTERN FLANKS OF THE APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY NIGHT...AND PERHAPS
DIURNALLY DRIVEN EVEN INTO TUESDAY.  HOWEVER...DESPITE ADDITIONAL
WEAK STREAM ENERGY...ARRIVAL OF SURFACE RIDGE AND AMPLIFICATION OF
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO LIMIT THREAT FOR ANY
ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

UPSLOPING CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST SHOULD MAINTAIN UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NOT LIKELY TO
CLIMB OUT OF THE 60S ON EITHER TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...ANY INFLUENCE OF COLD
ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET BY DOWNSLOPING/COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND
GOOD INSOLATION SUCH THAT HIGHS REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S...YET STILL ~5F LOWER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.

NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE LARGELY GOVERNED BY EXTENT OF MIXING AND
CLOUD COVER. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE/IF CLOUDS CAN CLEAR...AND
ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING WILL
MORE READILY OCCUR...SHOULD EXPERIENCE AT LEAST SPOTTY READINGS DOWN
INTO THE 40S. READINGS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL BE A BIT
MILDER...MAINLY 50S...YET STILL 5-10F BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A SURFACE HIGH THURSDAY OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN WILL SHIFT EAST
TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AT THE MID LEVELS A
PERSISTENT TROUGH IS SET UP OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN US. THURSDAY LACKS LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE SO EXPECT
THE DAY TO BE DRY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE FOR FRIDAY AND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES PIVOT ACROSS
THE REGION AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING AND TAPER OFF TO
JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING. FOCUS OF THE HIGHEST
CHANCE POPS ARE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE WILL
BE LOCATED...WITH LOWER CHANCE POPS OUT EAST.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH 850MB TEMPS
AROUND +16C. THIS WILL CORRESPOND TO SURFACE HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID
80S OUT EAST AND NEAR 80 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST ON FRIDAY THE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM N/NW TO AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION. THIS WILL WEDGE THE AREA IN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. WITH THE INCREASED LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. THIS ALONG WITH EXPECTED SCATTERED PRECIP AND 850MB
TEMPS FALLING TO +11-14C...SURFACE HIGH TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT SUNDAY...

STILL AWAITING POTENTIAL ARRIVAL OF MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
INTO THE CWA AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES WITH STRONG STORMS STILL
POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN AREAS OF BETTER INSTABILITY/HEATING ACROSS
SOUTHSIDE/PIEDMONT. THIS COULD IMPACT ROA/LYH/DAN IN THE 02Z-06Z
TIME FRAME...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW AS CIRRUS
SHIELD FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION AND MORNING ACTIVITY HAS
ESSENTIALLY PUT A LID ON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THIS POINT ACROSS
MOST OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. OF GREATER LIKELIHOOD IS
THAT A LINE OF MOST LIKELY SUBSEVERE SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT/UPPER TROUGH AS ITS SWINGS RAPIDLY THROUGH THE CWA IN
THE 04Z-08Z TIME FRAME. GIVEN THAT THERE WILL BE A LARGE UPSLOPE
COMPONENT AT THAT TIME...EXPECT THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF
SHRA/TSRA TO BE ACROSS THE WV COUNTIES...BUT ENOUGH DYNAMICS TO
SUPPORT MENTION OF SHRA EASTWARD EVEN INTO THE PIEDMONT. MOST
LIKELY THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR CIGS LWB-BLF...TO LOW END
VFR CIGS FURTHER EASTWARD. ALL PCPN SHOULD BE ENDING BY 10Z
MON...BUT EXTENSIVE UPSLOPE SC WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT WV MON
WITH A WINTERLIKE SETUP AND STRONG NW FLOW AND STRONG CAA. EXPECT
MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL ALL DAY LWB-BLF...AND POTENTIALLY EVEN BCB AT
TIMES. FURTHER EAST...CLOUDS SHOULD SCT OUT AND CIGS WILL BE
MOSTLY VFR. VSBYS MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE ISOLD MVFR IN TIME AND
LOCATION DURING SHRA/TSRA. MAIN CONCERN AFT 06Z AND THROUGH THE
DAY MON WILL BE STRONG NW WINDS AT SPEEDS OF 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS
25-30KTS...ESPECIALLY AFT 14Z MON. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR
THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN TSRA POTENTIAL THROUGH 10Z MON.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FOR TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
LATE NIGHT FOG KBCB/KLWB ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVELS MAY STAY DRY
ENOUGH FOR LESS FOG COVERAGE.

VARIABLE CIGS EXPECTED UNDER ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW THROUGHOUT THE
REST OF THE WEEK. A FEW -SHRA NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION
ACROSS EASTERN WV...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. TYPICAL FOG
POTENTIAL LESS THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK BECAUSE OF TURBULENT MIXING AND PREVAILING CYCLONIC FLOW.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE UPPER LOW RETROGRADES JUST
WEST OF THE REGION...INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA BUT MAINLY
SW OF THE TAF SITES INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE WEATHER RADIO AT HINTON WEST VA TRANSMITTING ON FREQUENCY
162.425 MHZ REMAINS OFF THE AIR LIKELY DUE TO PHONE LINE PROBLEMS.
RESTORATION OF SERVICE IS NOT EXPECTED BEFORE NOON ON MONDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...JH/RAB
SHORT TERM...WERT
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...JH/RAB
EQUIPMENT...JH




000
FXUS61 KRNK 272246
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
646 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THESE FEATURES MAY
TRIGGER STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY
TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY
MONDAY...RESULTING IN COOLER WEATHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM EDT SUNDAY...

TORNADO WATCH 448 ISSUED FOR A SMALL PART OF SW VA AND MOST OF OUR
NW NC COUNTIES UNTIL 1 AM EDT. NOT ENTIRELY CONFIDENT THAT MUCH OF
THE CWA WILL SEE SEVERE THREAT...SO IN DISCUSSION WITH SPC AM
HOLDING OFF ON ANY FURTHER WATCHES UNTIL WE SEE IF ONE IS NEEDED
FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. TIMING OF FRONT SUGGESTS THAT WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO CANCEL MUCH...IF NOT ALL OF THIS WATCH 448...BEFORE
1 AM EDT. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ZONES AT THIS TIME
AS POP AND TEMP TRENDS LOOK GOOD.

AS OF 200 PM EDT SUNDAY...

EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLIER IMPULSE SLOWLY
ERODING IN SPOTS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST BUT HAS ACTED TO KEEP A LID
ON INSTABILITY SO FAR GIVEN OVERALL LACK OF HEATING. THIS
EVIDENCED VIA THE SPECIAL 18Z SOUNDING WHICH SHOWS QUITE A CAP
ALOFT WHICH WILL TAKE A LOT MORE HEATING OR DYNAMICS LATER TO
OVERCOME. OTRW NEXT MCS INDUCED WAVE ROLLING SE OUT OF KY THE MAIN
PLAYER INTO LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING AS IT JETS SE IN
ADVANCE OF THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT CURRENTLY BACK IN THE MIDWEST.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO NOT HANDLE THE ONGOING SCENARIO VERY
WELL...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST NSSL WRF TAKES THIS CONVECTION SE INTO
OUR FAR SW COUNTIES WHERE GUIDANCE SHOWS BETTER THETA-E RIDGING
AND SOMEWHAT BETTER LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT WITHIN A
BETTER SW JET ALOFT. OTHER AREA TO WATCH WILL BE OVER THE FAR
WEST THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT AS THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT AND
UPPER COLD POOL DYNAMICS ARRIVE ACROSS THE FAR WEST. HOWEVER
WINDS WILL BE VEERING MORE WESTERLY BY THEN AND ANY INSTABILITY
WANING WHICH SHOULD PUT THE BEST FOCUS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES
WHERE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE BETTER COVERAGE. THIS ACTIVITY
LIKELY TO HAVE A HARD TIME SPILLING EAST BUT KEPT IN CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE EVENING EAST WHILE GOING LIKELYS TO LOW END CAT FAR
WEST EARLY ON.

85H FRONT WILL FINALLY SURGE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...REACHING THE PIEDMONT TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. MUCH DRIER
AIR ARRIVING ALOFT SHOULD CUT INTO ANY LEFTOVER SHRA COVERAGE
WITH ONLY SOME LOW CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS REMAINING IN THE
UPSLOPE REGIONS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN GUSTY ON THE RIDGES
FROM THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ANY ADVISORY
LEVELS ALTHOUGH QUITE BLUSTERY FOR LATE SUMMER. KEPT LOWS MORE IN
LINE WITH THE WARMER MET MOS EAST AND TOOK A BLEND WEST WHERE COOL
ADVECTION MAY BE OFFSET BY MIXING.

5H TROF CROSSES EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO
START BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROUNDING DOWN THE BACK OF THE COOL POOL MAY HELP
TO ENHANCE THE SHOWERS AS IT COINCIDES WITH THE COLDEST 85H TEMPS
AND MAX HEATING. THUS BOOSTED POPS WESTERN SLOPES TO A PERIOD OF
LOW LIKELYS MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A QUICK CUTOFF TO SHRA BLUE
RIDGE AND POINTS EAST WHERE DOWNSLOPING SHOULD ALLOW FOR LESS
CLOUDS. OTRW WILL BE A BREEZY AND COOL DAY FOR LATE JULY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 60S WHERE CLOUDS
PERSIST AND ALONG HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET WELL
INTO THE 80S UNDER DRY DOWNSLOPE PIEDMONT BUT ONLY 75-82 BLUE
RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT SATURDAY...

WEST TO NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE BLACKSBURG
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS SERIES OF WEAK SHORT
WAVE TROFS EMBEDDED IN UPPER FLOW HELP ANCHOR PIN-WHEELING UPPER
TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

COOLER AIR ALOFT...WEAK FORCING FROM INITIAL SHORT WAVE...AND WEAK
UPSLOPING MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE WESTERN FLANKS OF THE APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY NIGHT...AND PERHAPS
DIURNALLY DRIVEN EVEN INTO TUESDAY.  HOWEVER...DESPITE ADDITIONAL
WEAK STREAM ENERGY...ARRIVAL OF SURFACE RIDGE AND AMPLIFICATION OF
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO LIMIT THREAT FOR ANY
ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

UPSLOPING CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST SHOULD MAINTAIN UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NOT LIKELY TO
CLIMB OUT OF THE 60S ON EITHER TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...ANY INFLUENCE OF COLD
ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET BY DOWNSLOPING/COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND
GOOD INSOLATION SUCH THAT HIGHS REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S...YET STILL ~5F LOWER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.

NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE LARGELY GOVERNED BY EXTENT OF MIXING AND
CLOUD COVER. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE/IF CLOUDS CAN CLEAR...AND
ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING WILL
MORE READILY OCCUR...SHOULD EXPERIENCE AT LEAST SPOTTY READINGS DOWN
INTO THE 40S. READINGS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL BE A BIT
MILDER...MAINLY 50S...YET STILL 5-10F BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A SURFACE HIGH THURSDAY OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN WILL SHIFT EAST
TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AT THE MID LEVELS A
PERSISTENT TROUGH IS SET UP OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN US. THURSDAY LACKS LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE SO EXPECT
THE DAY TO BE DRY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE FOR FRIDAY AND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES PIVOT ACROSS
THE REGION AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING AND TAPER OFF TO
JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING. FOCUS OF THE HIGHEST
CHANCE POPS ARE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE WILL
BE LOCATED...WITH LOWER CHANCE POPS OUT EAST.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH 850MB TEMPS
AROUND +16C. THIS WILL CORRESPOND TO SURFACE HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID
80S OUT EAST AND NEAR 80 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST ON FRIDAY THE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM N/NW TO AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION. THIS WILL WEDGE THE AREA IN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. WITH THE INCREASED LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. THIS ALONG WITH EXPECTED SCATTERED PRECIP AND 850MB
TEMPS FALLING TO +11-14C...SURFACE HIGH TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM EDT SUNDAY...

BAND OF SHALLOW CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WORK EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND SHOULD EXIT THE KLYH AREA IN THE NEXT HOUR. ONCE THIS
PASSES...MOST AREAS WILL START TO SEE CIGS GRADUALLY LIFT ALLOWING
A PERIOD OF VFR ACROSS THE REGION INTO MID AFTERNOON...AND
PERHAPS LONGER ACROSS THE EASTERN SITES.

CONFIDENCE NOW LOWER IN REGARDS TO THE DEGREE OF WIDESPREAD
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THAT WILL DEVELOP TO THE WEST AND PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING. COMBO OF RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER
AND BEST SUPPORT BEING WELL TO THE WEST SUGGESTS WILL SEE MORE
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WITH THE BETTER CONCENTRATION ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES FROM KBLF TO KLWB ONCE THEY BECOME MORE UNSTABLE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THUS WILL GOING WITH MORE MVFR IN PREVAILING
SHRA/TSRA AT THESE SPOTS...AND VICINITY MENTION WITH EMBEDDED
TEMPO GROUPS FOR STRONGER STORMS ELSW INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

A COLD FRONT PASSES LATER TONIGHT...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS FROM
THE BLUE RIDGE EAST AND LINGERING MVFR WITH UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE
FAR WEST WHERE A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO LINGER. WINDS TURN GUSTY
FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY WITH GUSTS PERHAPS REACHING 25-30 KTS AT TIMES LATE.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THREAT OF SUB VFR THROUGH MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS
SE WEST VA PER NW FLOW...BUT LESS ELSEWHERE GIVEN DOWNSLOPE.
PERIODIC SHOWERS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG THE NW SLOPES ESPCLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT GIVEN ISOLATED NATURE WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION
FOR NOW.

DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FOR TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WILL BRING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT LATE NIGHT FOG KBCB/KLWB ALTHOUGH
THE LOW LEVELS MAY STAY DRY ENOUGH FOR LESS FOG COVERAGE.

VARIABLE CIGS EXPECTED UNDER ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW THROUGHOUT THE
REST OF THE WEEK. A FEW -SHRA NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION
ACROSS EASTERN WV...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. TYPICAL FOG
POTENTIAL LESS THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK BECAUSE OF TURBULENT MIXING AND PREVAILING CYCLONIC FLOW.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE UPPER LOW RETROGRADES JUST
WEST OF THE REGION...INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA BUT MAINLY
SW OF THE TAF SITES INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE WEATHER RADIO AT HINTON WEST VA TRANSMITTING ON FREQUENCY
162.425 MHZ REMAINS OFF THE AIR LIKELY DUE TO PHONE LINE PROBLEMS.
TECHNICIANS ARE WORKING ON THE PROBLEM BUT TIME OF RESTORATION
REMAINS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...JH/RAB
SHORT TERM...WERT
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...JH/PH
EQUIPMENT...JH



000
FXUS61 KRNK 272246
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
646 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THESE FEATURES MAY
TRIGGER STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY
TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY
MONDAY...RESULTING IN COOLER WEATHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM EDT SUNDAY...

TORNADO WATCH 448 ISSUED FOR A SMALL PART OF SW VA AND MOST OF OUR
NW NC COUNTIES UNTIL 1 AM EDT. NOT ENTIRELY CONFIDENT THAT MUCH OF
THE CWA WILL SEE SEVERE THREAT...SO IN DISCUSSION WITH SPC AM
HOLDING OFF ON ANY FURTHER WATCHES UNTIL WE SEE IF ONE IS NEEDED
FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. TIMING OF FRONT SUGGESTS THAT WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO CANCEL MUCH...IF NOT ALL OF THIS WATCH 448...BEFORE
1 AM EDT. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ZONES AT THIS TIME
AS POP AND TEMP TRENDS LOOK GOOD.

AS OF 200 PM EDT SUNDAY...

EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLIER IMPULSE SLOWLY
ERODING IN SPOTS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST BUT HAS ACTED TO KEEP A LID
ON INSTABILITY SO FAR GIVEN OVERALL LACK OF HEATING. THIS
EVIDENCED VIA THE SPECIAL 18Z SOUNDING WHICH SHOWS QUITE A CAP
ALOFT WHICH WILL TAKE A LOT MORE HEATING OR DYNAMICS LATER TO
OVERCOME. OTRW NEXT MCS INDUCED WAVE ROLLING SE OUT OF KY THE MAIN
PLAYER INTO LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING AS IT JETS SE IN
ADVANCE OF THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT CURRENTLY BACK IN THE MIDWEST.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO NOT HANDLE THE ONGOING SCENARIO VERY
WELL...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST NSSL WRF TAKES THIS CONVECTION SE INTO
OUR FAR SW COUNTIES WHERE GUIDANCE SHOWS BETTER THETA-E RIDGING
AND SOMEWHAT BETTER LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT WITHIN A
BETTER SW JET ALOFT. OTHER AREA TO WATCH WILL BE OVER THE FAR
WEST THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT AS THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT AND
UPPER COLD POOL DYNAMICS ARRIVE ACROSS THE FAR WEST. HOWEVER
WINDS WILL BE VEERING MORE WESTERLY BY THEN AND ANY INSTABILITY
WANING WHICH SHOULD PUT THE BEST FOCUS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES
WHERE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE BETTER COVERAGE. THIS ACTIVITY
LIKELY TO HAVE A HARD TIME SPILLING EAST BUT KEPT IN CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE EVENING EAST WHILE GOING LIKELYS TO LOW END CAT FAR
WEST EARLY ON.

85H FRONT WILL FINALLY SURGE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...REACHING THE PIEDMONT TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. MUCH DRIER
AIR ARRIVING ALOFT SHOULD CUT INTO ANY LEFTOVER SHRA COVERAGE
WITH ONLY SOME LOW CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS REMAINING IN THE
UPSLOPE REGIONS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN GUSTY ON THE RIDGES
FROM THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ANY ADVISORY
LEVELS ALTHOUGH QUITE BLUSTERY FOR LATE SUMMER. KEPT LOWS MORE IN
LINE WITH THE WARMER MET MOS EAST AND TOOK A BLEND WEST WHERE COOL
ADVECTION MAY BE OFFSET BY MIXING.

5H TROF CROSSES EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO
START BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROUNDING DOWN THE BACK OF THE COOL POOL MAY HELP
TO ENHANCE THE SHOWERS AS IT COINCIDES WITH THE COLDEST 85H TEMPS
AND MAX HEATING. THUS BOOSTED POPS WESTERN SLOPES TO A PERIOD OF
LOW LIKELYS MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A QUICK CUTOFF TO SHRA BLUE
RIDGE AND POINTS EAST WHERE DOWNSLOPING SHOULD ALLOW FOR LESS
CLOUDS. OTRW WILL BE A BREEZY AND COOL DAY FOR LATE JULY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 60S WHERE CLOUDS
PERSIST AND ALONG HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET WELL
INTO THE 80S UNDER DRY DOWNSLOPE PIEDMONT BUT ONLY 75-82 BLUE
RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT SATURDAY...

WEST TO NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE BLACKSBURG
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS SERIES OF WEAK SHORT
WAVE TROFS EMBEDDED IN UPPER FLOW HELP ANCHOR PIN-WHEELING UPPER
TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

COOLER AIR ALOFT...WEAK FORCING FROM INITIAL SHORT WAVE...AND WEAK
UPSLOPING MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE WESTERN FLANKS OF THE APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY NIGHT...AND PERHAPS
DIURNALLY DRIVEN EVEN INTO TUESDAY.  HOWEVER...DESPITE ADDITIONAL
WEAK STREAM ENERGY...ARRIVAL OF SURFACE RIDGE AND AMPLIFICATION OF
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO LIMIT THREAT FOR ANY
ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

UPSLOPING CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST SHOULD MAINTAIN UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NOT LIKELY TO
CLIMB OUT OF THE 60S ON EITHER TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...ANY INFLUENCE OF COLD
ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET BY DOWNSLOPING/COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND
GOOD INSOLATION SUCH THAT HIGHS REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S...YET STILL ~5F LOWER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.

NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE LARGELY GOVERNED BY EXTENT OF MIXING AND
CLOUD COVER. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE/IF CLOUDS CAN CLEAR...AND
ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING WILL
MORE READILY OCCUR...SHOULD EXPERIENCE AT LEAST SPOTTY READINGS DOWN
INTO THE 40S. READINGS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL BE A BIT
MILDER...MAINLY 50S...YET STILL 5-10F BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A SURFACE HIGH THURSDAY OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN WILL SHIFT EAST
TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AT THE MID LEVELS A
PERSISTENT TROUGH IS SET UP OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN US. THURSDAY LACKS LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE SO EXPECT
THE DAY TO BE DRY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE FOR FRIDAY AND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES PIVOT ACROSS
THE REGION AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING AND TAPER OFF TO
JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING. FOCUS OF THE HIGHEST
CHANCE POPS ARE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE WILL
BE LOCATED...WITH LOWER CHANCE POPS OUT EAST.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH 850MB TEMPS
AROUND +16C. THIS WILL CORRESPOND TO SURFACE HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID
80S OUT EAST AND NEAR 80 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST ON FRIDAY THE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM N/NW TO AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION. THIS WILL WEDGE THE AREA IN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. WITH THE INCREASED LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. THIS ALONG WITH EXPECTED SCATTERED PRECIP AND 850MB
TEMPS FALLING TO +11-14C...SURFACE HIGH TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM EDT SUNDAY...

BAND OF SHALLOW CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WORK EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND SHOULD EXIT THE KLYH AREA IN THE NEXT HOUR. ONCE THIS
PASSES...MOST AREAS WILL START TO SEE CIGS GRADUALLY LIFT ALLOWING
A PERIOD OF VFR ACROSS THE REGION INTO MID AFTERNOON...AND
PERHAPS LONGER ACROSS THE EASTERN SITES.

CONFIDENCE NOW LOWER IN REGARDS TO THE DEGREE OF WIDESPREAD
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THAT WILL DEVELOP TO THE WEST AND PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING. COMBO OF RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER
AND BEST SUPPORT BEING WELL TO THE WEST SUGGESTS WILL SEE MORE
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WITH THE BETTER CONCENTRATION ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES FROM KBLF TO KLWB ONCE THEY BECOME MORE UNSTABLE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THUS WILL GOING WITH MORE MVFR IN PREVAILING
SHRA/TSRA AT THESE SPOTS...AND VICINITY MENTION WITH EMBEDDED
TEMPO GROUPS FOR STRONGER STORMS ELSW INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

A COLD FRONT PASSES LATER TONIGHT...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS FROM
THE BLUE RIDGE EAST AND LINGERING MVFR WITH UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE
FAR WEST WHERE A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO LINGER. WINDS TURN GUSTY
FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY WITH GUSTS PERHAPS REACHING 25-30 KTS AT TIMES LATE.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THREAT OF SUB VFR THROUGH MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS
SE WEST VA PER NW FLOW...BUT LESS ELSEWHERE GIVEN DOWNSLOPE.
PERIODIC SHOWERS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG THE NW SLOPES ESPCLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT GIVEN ISOLATED NATURE WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION
FOR NOW.

DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FOR TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WILL BRING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT LATE NIGHT FOG KBCB/KLWB ALTHOUGH
THE LOW LEVELS MAY STAY DRY ENOUGH FOR LESS FOG COVERAGE.

VARIABLE CIGS EXPECTED UNDER ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW THROUGHOUT THE
REST OF THE WEEK. A FEW -SHRA NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION
ACROSS EASTERN WV...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. TYPICAL FOG
POTENTIAL LESS THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK BECAUSE OF TURBULENT MIXING AND PREVAILING CYCLONIC FLOW.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE UPPER LOW RETROGRADES JUST
WEST OF THE REGION...INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA BUT MAINLY
SW OF THE TAF SITES INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE WEATHER RADIO AT HINTON WEST VA TRANSMITTING ON FREQUENCY
162.425 MHZ REMAINS OFF THE AIR LIKELY DUE TO PHONE LINE PROBLEMS.
TECHNICIANS ARE WORKING ON THE PROBLEM BUT TIME OF RESTORATION
REMAINS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...JH/RAB
SHORT TERM...WERT
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...JH/PH
EQUIPMENT...JH




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 272143
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
543 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY MONDAY...THEN STALLS
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
DROPPED POPS TO HAVE A DRY FORECAST MOST AREAS THROUGH 00Z PER
LATEST CONDITIONS. MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BEYOND
00Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... HRRR & NAM CONTINUE TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON CRNT
CNDTNS SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THEIR SOLNS. EXPECT ONLY SCT ACTIVITY
INTO THE ERLY EVE HRS. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE WE ARE LOOKING AT 2 AREAS
OF CONVECTION. FIRST IS THE S/W NOW MOVG INTO SRN W VA. THIS
PROGGED TO TRACK AN AREA OF SHWRS/TSTRMS ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF
FA (MAINLY SOUTH OF I64) THIS EVE AND INTO ERY MORN HRS. SCND AREA
OF CONVECTION (CRNTLY DVLPNG OVR OHIO) PROGGED TO TRACK EAST
ACROSS SRN PA/MD AFTR MIDNIGHT CLIPPING NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES OF
FA. GIVEN DIFFERENT MODEL SOLNS AND DECENT UPR JET SPRT...WILL
KEEP HIGH CHC TO LOW END LIKELY POPS (40-60%) ACROSS THE RGN. SVR
THREAT (HAIL/WIND/HVY RAIN) CONTS...BUT THREAT IS NOT AS HIGH AS
IT LOOKED EARLIER GIVEN THE CLOUD COVERAGE AND PCPN PAST 8 HRS.
LOWS IN THE U60S NW TO THE LWR-MID 70S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONT / LEADING TROF PROGGED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST MONDAY MORN...
TAKING MOST IF NOT ALL PCPN WITH IT. THIS ENDS ANY SVR THREAT ACROSS
THE AREA. GIVEN LINGERING UPR LVL NRGY & MSTR...KEPT LOW CHC POPS
EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS THEN CONFINED SLGHT CHC POPS
TO IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS DRNG THE AFTRN. GIVEN INCREASING AMTS OF
AFTRN SUN & A DOWNSLOPING WEST WIND...TMPS XPCTD TO WARM INTO THE
U80S-L90S.

MODELS DVLP SCT CONVECTION ALONG THE STALLED FRNTL MON EVENING SO
HAVE CONFINED LOW CHC POPS TO COUNTIES BORDERING ALBEMARLE SND.
OTW...PT CLDY & COOLER. WEAK CAA SEEN AS WINDS BECOME NORTH. LOWS
IN THE 60S.

UPR LVL COOL POOL WILL COMBINE WITH DYTME HTNG AND LINGERING
TROFINESS OVR THE FA FOR ISLTD POPS TUE AFTRN. CAPPED POPS AT 20%
FOR NOW. PT SUNNY WITH BLO NRML TMPS. HIGHS IN THE L80S XCPT U70S
AT THE BEACHES. M CLR TO PT CLDY TUE NITE AND RTHR COMFY FOR LATE
JULY. LOWS M50S-M60S.

MSTLY SUNNY WITH BLO NRML TMPS WED AS HIGH PRS BUILDS OVR THE RGN.
HIGHS L-M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF OVR THE MID ATLC REGION WED NGT...WILL
RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND DEEPEN THU THRU SUN.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING OFF THE MID ATLC CST WED NGT INTO
FRI...WILL DRIFT BACK TWD THE CST LATE FRI THRU SUN. FOR NOW...WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR WED NGT INTO FRI...THEN INCREASE TO SLGT CHC
OR CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT THRU SUN. STILL FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WED NGT
AND THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY/LO LVL MOIST RETURNS
FOR FRI THRU SUN. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID
80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S
THU MORNG...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI MORNG...RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT
MORNG...AND RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SUN MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUD COVER WAS PUTTING A DAMPER ON CONVECTION TODAY. BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST MAY HELP TO PRODUCE WIDELY SCT TSTMS LATER TODAY AND EARLY
THIS EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE. IN THE MEANTIME...AN
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN MOVING THROUGH HAMPTON ROADS/ECG AREA WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST SHORTLY AFTER THE START OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.

INCLUDED A FEW OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AT ALL THE TAF SITES EXCEPT ECG.
THESE COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH TSTMS. WEST WINDS DEVELOP IN THE
MORNING BEHIND A PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND. THESE WINDS DRY OUT THE
ATMOSPHERE AND SHOULD END THE PCPN. THE FRONT ITSELF MOVES THROUGH
EARLY IN THE AFTN. AT THIS POINT AND APPEARS TO BE A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

NO IFR WAS PLACED IN THE TAFS. MVFR FOG IS PSBL AT SBY AND ECG PRIOR
TO THE W/SW WINDS.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST DURING THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG IS PSBL NEAR SUNRISE BUT WIDESPREAD
IFR IS NOT INDICATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TNGT THRU TUE. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA FM THE NW THIS EVENG...THEN CROSSES THE WTRS AND
OFF THE CST MON INTO MON NGT. SSW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT THRU TNGT. WINDS
WILL TURN TO THE W DURING MON...THEN NW AND N MON NGT INTO TUE MRNG.
NNE WINDS 15 KT OR LESS EXPECTED TUE THRU WED. SE OR E WINDS 10 KT
OR LESS WED NGT THRU THU NGT...BEFORE BECOMING NE AGAIN ON FRI.
WAVES 1 TO 3 FT...AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB/MPR
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...TMG






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271944
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
344 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY MONDAY...THEN STALLS
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HRRR & NAM CONTINUE TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON CRNT CNDTNS SO HAVE
LEANED TOWARD THEIR SOLNS. EXPECT ONLY SCT ACTIVITY INTO THE ERLY
EVE HRS. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE WE ARE LOOKING AT 2 AREAS OF CONVECTION.
FIRST IS THE S/W NOW MOVG INTO SRN W VA. THIS PROGGED TO TRACK AN
AREA OF SHWRS/TSTRMS ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF FA (MAINLY SOUTH OF
I64) THIS EVE AND INTO ERY MORN HRS. SCND AREA OF CONVECTION
(CRNTLY DVLPNG OVR OHIO) PROGGED TO TRACK EAST ACROSS SRN PA/MD
AFTR MIDNIGHT CLIPPING NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES OF FA. GIVEN
DIFFERENT MODEL SOLNS AND DECENT UPR JET SPRT...WILL KEEP HIGH
CHC TO LOW END LIKELY POPS (40-60%) ACROSS THE RGN. SVR THREAT
(HAIL/WIND/HVY RAIN) CONTS...BUT THREAT IS NOT AS HIGH AS IT
LOOKED EARLIER GIVEN THE CLOUD COVERAGE AND PCPN PAST 8 HRS. LOWS
IN THE U60S-M70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONT / LEADING TROF PROGGED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST MONDAY MORN...
TAKING MOST IF NOT ALL PCPN WITH IT. THIS ENDS ANY SVR THREAT ACROSS
THE AREA. GIVEN LINGERING UPR LVL NRGY & MSTR...KEPT LOW CHC POPS
EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS THEN CONFINED SLGHT CHC POPS
TO IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS DRNG THE AFTRN. GIVEN INCREASING AMTS OF
AFTRN SUN & A DOWNSLOPING WEST WIND...TMPS XPCTD TO WARM INTO THE
U80S-L90S.

MODELS DVLP SCT CONVECTION ALONG THE STALLED FRNTL MON EVENING SO
HAVE CONFINED LOW CHC POPS TO COUNTIES BORDERING ALBEMARLE SND.
OTW...PT CLDY & COOLER. WEAK CAA SEEN AS WINDS BECOME NORTH. LOWS
IN THE 60S.

UPR LVL COOL POOL WILL COMBINE WITH DYTME HTNG AND LINGERING
TROFINESS OVR THE FA FOR ISLTD POPS TUE AFTRN. CAPPED POPS AT 20%
FOR NOW. PT SUNNY WITH BLO NRML TMPS. HIGHS IN THE L80S XCPT U70S
AT THE BEACHES. M CLR TO PT CLDY TUE NITE AND RTHR COMFY FOR LATE
JULY. LOWS M50S-M60S.

MSTLY SUNNY WITH BLO NRML TMPS WED AS HIGH PRS BUILDS OVR THE RGN.
HIGHS L-M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF OVR THE MID ATLC REGION WED NGT...WILL
RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND DEEPEN THU THRU SUN.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING OFF THE MID ATLC CST WED NGT INTO
FRI...WILL DRIFT BACK TWD THE CST LATE FRI THRU SUN. FOR NOW...WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR WED NGT INTO FRI...THEN INCREASE TO SLGT CHC
OR CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT THRU SUN. STILL FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WED NGT
AND THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY/LO LVL MOIST RETURNS
FOR FRI THRU SUN. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID
80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S
THU MORNG...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI MORNG...RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT
MORNG...AND RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SUN MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUD COVER WAS PUTTING A DAMPER ON CONVECTION TODAY. BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST MAY HELP TO PRODUCE WIDELY SCT TSTMS LATER TODAY AND EARLY
THIS EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE. IN THE MEANTIME...AN
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN MOVING THROUGH HAMPTON ROADS/ECG AREA WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST SHORTLY AFTER THE START OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.

INCLUDED A FEW OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AT ALL THE TAF SITES EXCEPT ECG.
THESE COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH TSTMS. WEST WINDS DEVELOP IN THE
MORNING BEHIND A PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND. THESE WINDS DRY OUT THE
ATMOSPHERE AND SHOULD END THE PCPN. THE FRONT ITSELF MOVES THROUGH
EARLY IN THE AFTN. AT THIS POINT AND APPEARS TO BE A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

NO IFR WAS PLACED IN THE TAFS. MVFR FOG IS PSBL AT SBY AND ECG PRIOR
TO THE W/SW WINDS.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST DURING THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG IS PSBL NEAR SUNRISE BUT WIDESPREAD
IFR IS NOT INDICATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TNGT THRU TUE. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA FM THE NW THIS EVENG...THEN CROSSES THE WTRS AND
OFF THE CST MON INTO MON NGT. SSW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT THRU TNGT. WINDS
WILL TURN TO THE W DURING MON...THEN NW AND N MON NGT INTO TUE MRNG.
NNE WINDS 15 KT OR LESS EXPECTED TUE THRU WED. SE OR E WINDS 10 KT
OR LESS WED NGT THRU THU NGT...BEFORE BECOMING NE AGAIN ON FRI.
WAVES 1 TO 3 FT...AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...TMG






000
FXUS61 KRNK 271900
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
300 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THESE FEATURES MAY
TRIGGER STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY
TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY
MONDAY...RESULTING IN COOLER WEATHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK
WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SUNDAY...

EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLIER IMPULSE SLOWLY
ERODING IN SPOTS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST BUT HAS ACTED TO KEEP A LID
ON INSTABILITY SO FAR GIVEN OVERALL LACK OF HEATING. THIS
EVIDENCED VIA THE SPECIAL 18Z SOUNDING WHICH SHOWS QUITE A CAP
ALOFT WHICH WILL TAKE A LOT MORE HEATING OR DYNAMICS LATER TO
OVERCOME. OTRW NEXT MCS INDUCED WAVE ROLLING SE OUT OF KY THE MAIN
PLAYER INTO LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING AS IT JETS SE IN
ADVANCE OF THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT CURRENTLY BACK IN THE MIDWEST.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO NOT HANDLE THE ONGOING SCENARIO VERY
WELL...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST NSSL WRF TAKES THIS CONVECTION SE INTO
OUR FAR SW COUNTIES WHERE GUIDANCE SHOWS BETTER THETA-E RIDGING
AND SOMEWHAT BETTER LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT WITHIN A
BETTER SW JET ALOFT. OTHER AREA TO WATCH WILL BE OVER THE FAR
WEST THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT AS THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT AND
UPPER COLD POOL DYNAMICS ARRIVE ACROSS THE FAR WEST. HOWEVER
WINDS WILL BE VEERING MORE WESTERLY BY THEN AND ANY INSTABILITY
WANING WHICH SHOULD PUT THE BEST FOCUS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES
WHERE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE BETTER COVERAGE. THIS ACTIVITY
LIKELY TO HAVE A HARD TIME SPILLING EAST BUT KEPT IN CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE EVENING EAST WHILE GOING LIKELYS TO LOW END CAT FAR
WEST EARLY ON.

85H FRONT WILL FINALLY SURGE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...REACHING THE PIEDMONT TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. MUCH DRIER
AIR ARRIVING ALOFT SHOULD CUT INTO ANY LEFTOVER SHRA COVERAGE
WITH ONLY SOME LOW CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS REMAINING IN THE
UPSLOPE REGIONS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN GUSTY ON THE RIDGES
FROM THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ANY ADVISORY
LEVELS ALTHOUGH QUITE BLUSTERY FOR LATE SUMMER. KEPT LOWS MORE IN
LINE WITH THE WARMER MET MOS EAST AND TOOK A BLEND WEST WHERE COOL
ADVECTION MAY BE OFFSET BY MIXING.

5H TROF CROSSES EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO
START BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROUNDING DOWN THE BACK OF THE COOL POOL MAY HELP
TO ENHANCE THE SHOWERS AS IT COINCIDES WITH THE COLDEST 85H TEMPS
AND MAX HEATING. THUS BOOSTED POPS WESTERN SLOPES TO A PERIOD OF
LOW LIKELYS MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A QUICK CUTOFF TO SHRA BLUE
RIDGE AND POINTS EAST WHERE DOWNSLOPING SHOULD ALLOW FOR LESS
CLOUDS. OTRW WILL BE A BREEZY AND COOL DAY FOR LATE JULY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 60S WHERE CLOUDS
PERSIST AND ALONG HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET WELL
INTO THE 80S UNDER DRY DOWNSLOPE PIEDMONT BUT ONLY 75-82 BLUE
RIDGE.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT SATURDAY...

WEST TO NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE BLACKSBURG
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS SERIES OF WEAK SHORT
WAVE TROFS EMBEDDED IN UPPER FLOW HELP ANCHOR PIN-WHEELING UPPER
TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

COOLER AIR ALOFT...WEAK FORCING FROM INITIAL SHORT WAVE...AND WEAK
UPSLOPING MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE WESTERN FLANKS OF THE APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY NIGHT...AND PERHAPS
DIURNALLY DRIVEN EVEN INTO TUESDAY.  HOWEVER...DESPITE ADDITIONAL
WEAK STREAM ENERGY...ARRIVAL OF SURFACE RIDGE AND AMPLIFICATION OF
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO LIMIT THREAT FOR ANY
ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

UPSLOPING CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST SHOULD MAINTAIN UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NOT LIKELY TO
CLIMB OUT OF THE 60S ON EITHER TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...ANY INFLUENCE OF COLD
ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET BY DOWNSLOPING/COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND
GOOD INSOLATION SUCH THAT HIGHS REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S...YET STILL ~5F LOWER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.

NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE LARGELY GOVERNED BY EXTENT OF MIXING AND
CLOUD COVER. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE/IF CLOUDS CAN CLEAR...AND
ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING WILL
MORE READILY OCCUR...SHOULD EXPERIENCE AT LEAST SPOTTY READINGS DOWN
INTO THE 40S. READINGS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL BE A BIT
MILDER...MAINLY 50S...YET STILL 5-10F BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A SURFACE HIGH THURSDAY OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN WILL SHIFT EAST
TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AT THE MID LEVELS A
PERSISTENT TROUGH IS SET UP OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN US. THURSDAY LACKS LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE SO EXPECT
THE DAY TO BE DRY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE FOR FRIDAY AND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES PIVOT ACROSS
THE REGION AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING AND TAPER OFF TO
JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING. FOCUS OF THE HIGHEST
CHANCE POPS ARE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE WILL
BE LOCATED...WITH LOWER CHANCE POPS OUT EAST.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH 850MB TEMPS
AROUND +16C. THIS WILL CORRESPOND TO SURFACE HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID
80S OUT EAST AND NEAR 80 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST ON FRIDAY THE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM N/NW TO AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION. THIS WILL WEDGE THE AREA IN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. WITH THE INCREASED LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. THIS ALONG WITH EXPECTED SCATTERED PRECIP AND 850MB
TEMPS FALLING TO +11-14C...SURFACE HIGH TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM EDT SUNDAY...

BAND OF SHALLOW CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WORK EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND SHOULD EXIT THE KLYH AREA IN THE NEXT HOUR. ONCE THIS
PASSES...MOST AREAS WILL START TO SEE CIGS GRADUALLY LIFT ALLOWING
A PERIOD OF VFR ACROSS THE REGION INTO MID AFTERNOON...AND
PERHAPS LONGER ACROSS THE EASTERN SITES.

CONFIDENCE NOW LOWER IN REGARDS TO THE DEGREE OF WIDESPREAD
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THAT WILL DEVELOP TO THE WEST AND PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING. COMBO OF RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER
AND BEST SUPPORT BEING WELL TO THE WEST SUGGESTS WILL SEE MORE
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WITH THE BETTER CONCENTRATION ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES FROM KBLF TO KLWB ONCE THEY BECOME MORE UNSTABLE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THUS WILL GOING WITH MORE MVFR IN PREVAILING
SHRA/TSRA AT THESE SPOTS...AND VICINITY MENTION WITH EMBEDDED
TEMPO GROUPS FOR STRONGER STORMS ELSW INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

A COLD FRONT PASSES LATER TONIGHT...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS FROM
THE BLUE RIDGE EAST AND LINGERING MVFR WITH UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE
FAR WEST WHERE A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO LINGER. WINDS TURN GUSTY
FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY WITH GUSTS PERHAPS REACHING 25-30 KTS AT TIMES LATE.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THREAT OF SUB VFR THROUGH MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS
SE WEST VA PER NW FLOW...BUT LESS ELSEWHERE GIVEN DOWNSLOPE.
PERIODIC SHOWERS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG THE NW SLOPES ESPCLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT GIVEN ISOLATED NATURE WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION
FOR NOW.

DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FOR TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WILL BRING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT LATE NIGHT FOG KBCB/KLWB ALTHOUGH
THE LOW LEVELS MAY STAY DRY ENOUGH FOR LESS FOG COVERAGE.

VARIABLE CIGS EXPECTED UNDER ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW THROUGHOUT THE
REST OF THE WEEK. A FEW -SHRA NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION
ACROSS EASTERN WV...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. TYPICAL FOG
POTENTIAL LESS THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK BECAUSE OF TURBULENT MIXING AND PREVAILING CYCLONIC FLOW.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE UPPER LOW RETROGRADES JUST
WEST OF THE REGION...INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA BUT MAINLY
SW OF THE TAF SITES INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE WEATHER RADIO AT HINTON WEST VA TRANSMITTING ON FREQUENCY
162.425 MHZ REMAINS OFF THE AIR LIKELY DUE TO PHONE LINE PROBLEMS.
TECHNICIANS ARE WORKING ON THE PROBLEM BUT TIME OF RESTORATION
REMAINS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...WERT
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...JH/PH
EQUIPMENT...JH



000
FXUS61 KRNK 271900
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
300 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THESE FEATURES MAY
TRIGGER STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY
TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY
MONDAY...RESULTING IN COOLER WEATHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK
WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SUNDAY...

EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLIER IMPULSE SLOWLY
ERODING IN SPOTS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST BUT HAS ACTED TO KEEP A LID
ON INSTABILITY SO FAR GIVEN OVERALL LACK OF HEATING. THIS
EVIDENCED VIA THE SPECIAL 18Z SOUNDING WHICH SHOWS QUITE A CAP
ALOFT WHICH WILL TAKE A LOT MORE HEATING OR DYNAMICS LATER TO
OVERCOME. OTRW NEXT MCS INDUCED WAVE ROLLING SE OUT OF KY THE MAIN
PLAYER INTO LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING AS IT JETS SE IN
ADVANCE OF THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT CURRENTLY BACK IN THE MIDWEST.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO NOT HANDLE THE ONGOING SCENARIO VERY
WELL...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST NSSL WRF TAKES THIS CONVECTION SE INTO
OUR FAR SW COUNTIES WHERE GUIDANCE SHOWS BETTER THETA-E RIDGING
AND SOMEWHAT BETTER LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT WITHIN A
BETTER SW JET ALOFT. OTHER AREA TO WATCH WILL BE OVER THE FAR
WEST THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT AS THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT AND
UPPER COLD POOL DYNAMICS ARRIVE ACROSS THE FAR WEST. HOWEVER
WINDS WILL BE VEERING MORE WESTERLY BY THEN AND ANY INSTABILITY
WANING WHICH SHOULD PUT THE BEST FOCUS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES
WHERE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE BETTER COVERAGE. THIS ACTIVITY
LIKELY TO HAVE A HARD TIME SPILLING EAST BUT KEPT IN CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE EVENING EAST WHILE GOING LIKELYS TO LOW END CAT FAR
WEST EARLY ON.

85H FRONT WILL FINALLY SURGE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...REACHING THE PIEDMONT TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. MUCH DRIER
AIR ARRIVING ALOFT SHOULD CUT INTO ANY LEFTOVER SHRA COVERAGE
WITH ONLY SOME LOW CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS REMAINING IN THE
UPSLOPE REGIONS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN GUSTY ON THE RIDGES
FROM THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ANY ADVISORY
LEVELS ALTHOUGH QUITE BLUSTERY FOR LATE SUMMER. KEPT LOWS MORE IN
LINE WITH THE WARMER MET MOS EAST AND TOOK A BLEND WEST WHERE COOL
ADVECTION MAY BE OFFSET BY MIXING.

5H TROF CROSSES EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO
START BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROUNDING DOWN THE BACK OF THE COOL POOL MAY HELP
TO ENHANCE THE SHOWERS AS IT COINCIDES WITH THE COLDEST 85H TEMPS
AND MAX HEATING. THUS BOOSTED POPS WESTERN SLOPES TO A PERIOD OF
LOW LIKELYS MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A QUICK CUTOFF TO SHRA BLUE
RIDGE AND POINTS EAST WHERE DOWNSLOPING SHOULD ALLOW FOR LESS
CLOUDS. OTRW WILL BE A BREEZY AND COOL DAY FOR LATE JULY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 60S WHERE CLOUDS
PERSIST AND ALONG HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET WELL
INTO THE 80S UNDER DRY DOWNSLOPE PIEDMONT BUT ONLY 75-82 BLUE
RIDGE.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT SATURDAY...

WEST TO NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE BLACKSBURG
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS SERIES OF WEAK SHORT
WAVE TROFS EMBEDDED IN UPPER FLOW HELP ANCHOR PIN-WHEELING UPPER
TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

COOLER AIR ALOFT...WEAK FORCING FROM INITIAL SHORT WAVE...AND WEAK
UPSLOPING MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE WESTERN FLANKS OF THE APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY NIGHT...AND PERHAPS
DIURNALLY DRIVEN EVEN INTO TUESDAY.  HOWEVER...DESPITE ADDITIONAL
WEAK STREAM ENERGY...ARRIVAL OF SURFACE RIDGE AND AMPLIFICATION OF
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO LIMIT THREAT FOR ANY
ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

UPSLOPING CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST SHOULD MAINTAIN UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NOT LIKELY TO
CLIMB OUT OF THE 60S ON EITHER TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...ANY INFLUENCE OF COLD
ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET BY DOWNSLOPING/COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND
GOOD INSOLATION SUCH THAT HIGHS REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S...YET STILL ~5F LOWER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.

NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE LARGELY GOVERNED BY EXTENT OF MIXING AND
CLOUD COVER. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE/IF CLOUDS CAN CLEAR...AND
ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING WILL
MORE READILY OCCUR...SHOULD EXPERIENCE AT LEAST SPOTTY READINGS DOWN
INTO THE 40S. READINGS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL BE A BIT
MILDER...MAINLY 50S...YET STILL 5-10F BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A SURFACE HIGH THURSDAY OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN WILL SHIFT EAST
TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AT THE MID LEVELS A
PERSISTENT TROUGH IS SET UP OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN US. THURSDAY LACKS LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE SO EXPECT
THE DAY TO BE DRY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE FOR FRIDAY AND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES PIVOT ACROSS
THE REGION AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING AND TAPER OFF TO
JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING. FOCUS OF THE HIGHEST
CHANCE POPS ARE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE WILL
BE LOCATED...WITH LOWER CHANCE POPS OUT EAST.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH 850MB TEMPS
AROUND +16C. THIS WILL CORRESPOND TO SURFACE HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID
80S OUT EAST AND NEAR 80 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST ON FRIDAY THE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM N/NW TO AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION. THIS WILL WEDGE THE AREA IN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. WITH THE INCREASED LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. THIS ALONG WITH EXPECTED SCATTERED PRECIP AND 850MB
TEMPS FALLING TO +11-14C...SURFACE HIGH TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM EDT SUNDAY...

BAND OF SHALLOW CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WORK EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND SHOULD EXIT THE KLYH AREA IN THE NEXT HOUR. ONCE THIS
PASSES...MOST AREAS WILL START TO SEE CIGS GRADUALLY LIFT ALLOWING
A PERIOD OF VFR ACROSS THE REGION INTO MID AFTERNOON...AND
PERHAPS LONGER ACROSS THE EASTERN SITES.

CONFIDENCE NOW LOWER IN REGARDS TO THE DEGREE OF WIDESPREAD
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THAT WILL DEVELOP TO THE WEST AND PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING. COMBO OF RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER
AND BEST SUPPORT BEING WELL TO THE WEST SUGGESTS WILL SEE MORE
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WITH THE BETTER CONCENTRATION ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES FROM KBLF TO KLWB ONCE THEY BECOME MORE UNSTABLE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THUS WILL GOING WITH MORE MVFR IN PREVAILING
SHRA/TSRA AT THESE SPOTS...AND VICINITY MENTION WITH EMBEDDED
TEMPO GROUPS FOR STRONGER STORMS ELSW INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

A COLD FRONT PASSES LATER TONIGHT...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS FROM
THE BLUE RIDGE EAST AND LINGERING MVFR WITH UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE
FAR WEST WHERE A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO LINGER. WINDS TURN GUSTY
FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY WITH GUSTS PERHAPS REACHING 25-30 KTS AT TIMES LATE.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THREAT OF SUB VFR THROUGH MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS
SE WEST VA PER NW FLOW...BUT LESS ELSEWHERE GIVEN DOWNSLOPE.
PERIODIC SHOWERS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG THE NW SLOPES ESPCLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT GIVEN ISOLATED NATURE WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION
FOR NOW.

DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FOR TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WILL BRING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT LATE NIGHT FOG KBCB/KLWB ALTHOUGH
THE LOW LEVELS MAY STAY DRY ENOUGH FOR LESS FOG COVERAGE.

VARIABLE CIGS EXPECTED UNDER ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW THROUGHOUT THE
REST OF THE WEEK. A FEW -SHRA NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION
ACROSS EASTERN WV...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. TYPICAL FOG
POTENTIAL LESS THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK BECAUSE OF TURBULENT MIXING AND PREVAILING CYCLONIC FLOW.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE UPPER LOW RETROGRADES JUST
WEST OF THE REGION...INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA BUT MAINLY
SW OF THE TAF SITES INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE WEATHER RADIO AT HINTON WEST VA TRANSMITTING ON FREQUENCY
162.425 MHZ REMAINS OFF THE AIR LIKELY DUE TO PHONE LINE PROBLEMS.
TECHNICIANS ARE WORKING ON THE PROBLEM BUT TIME OF RESTORATION
REMAINS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...WERT
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...JH/PH
EQUIPMENT...JH



000
FXUS61 KRNK 271900
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
300 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THESE FEATURES MAY
TRIGGER STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY
TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY
MONDAY...RESULTING IN COOLER WEATHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK
WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SUNDAY...

EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLIER IMPULSE SLOWLY
ERODING IN SPOTS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST BUT HAS ACTED TO KEEP A LID
ON INSTABILITY SO FAR GIVEN OVERALL LACK OF HEATING. THIS
EVIDENCED VIA THE SPECIAL 18Z SOUNDING WHICH SHOWS QUITE A CAP
ALOFT WHICH WILL TAKE A LOT MORE HEATING OR DYNAMICS LATER TO
OVERCOME. OTRW NEXT MCS INDUCED WAVE ROLLING SE OUT OF KY THE MAIN
PLAYER INTO LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING AS IT JETS SE IN
ADVANCE OF THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT CURRENTLY BACK IN THE MIDWEST.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO NOT HANDLE THE ONGOING SCENARIO VERY
WELL...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST NSSL WRF TAKES THIS CONVECTION SE INTO
OUR FAR SW COUNTIES WHERE GUIDANCE SHOWS BETTER THETA-E RIDGING
AND SOMEWHAT BETTER LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT WITHIN A
BETTER SW JET ALOFT. OTHER AREA TO WATCH WILL BE OVER THE FAR
WEST THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT AS THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT AND
UPPER COLD POOL DYNAMICS ARRIVE ACROSS THE FAR WEST. HOWEVER
WINDS WILL BE VEERING MORE WESTERLY BY THEN AND ANY INSTABILITY
WANING WHICH SHOULD PUT THE BEST FOCUS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES
WHERE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE BETTER COVERAGE. THIS ACTIVITY
LIKELY TO HAVE A HARD TIME SPILLING EAST BUT KEPT IN CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE EVENING EAST WHILE GOING LIKELYS TO LOW END CAT FAR
WEST EARLY ON.

85H FRONT WILL FINALLY SURGE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...REACHING THE PIEDMONT TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. MUCH DRIER
AIR ARRIVING ALOFT SHOULD CUT INTO ANY LEFTOVER SHRA COVERAGE
WITH ONLY SOME LOW CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS REMAINING IN THE
UPSLOPE REGIONS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN GUSTY ON THE RIDGES
FROM THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ANY ADVISORY
LEVELS ALTHOUGH QUITE BLUSTERY FOR LATE SUMMER. KEPT LOWS MORE IN
LINE WITH THE WARMER MET MOS EAST AND TOOK A BLEND WEST WHERE COOL
ADVECTION MAY BE OFFSET BY MIXING.

5H TROF CROSSES EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO
START BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROUNDING DOWN THE BACK OF THE COOL POOL MAY HELP
TO ENHANCE THE SHOWERS AS IT COINCIDES WITH THE COLDEST 85H TEMPS
AND MAX HEATING. THUS BOOSTED POPS WESTERN SLOPES TO A PERIOD OF
LOW LIKELYS MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A QUICK CUTOFF TO SHRA BLUE
RIDGE AND POINTS EAST WHERE DOWNSLOPING SHOULD ALLOW FOR LESS
CLOUDS. OTRW WILL BE A BREEZY AND COOL DAY FOR LATE JULY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 60S WHERE CLOUDS
PERSIST AND ALONG HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET WELL
INTO THE 80S UNDER DRY DOWNSLOPE PIEDMONT BUT ONLY 75-82 BLUE
RIDGE.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT SATURDAY...

WEST TO NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE BLACKSBURG
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS SERIES OF WEAK SHORT
WAVE TROFS EMBEDDED IN UPPER FLOW HELP ANCHOR PIN-WHEELING UPPER
TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

COOLER AIR ALOFT...WEAK FORCING FROM INITIAL SHORT WAVE...AND WEAK
UPSLOPING MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE WESTERN FLANKS OF THE APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY NIGHT...AND PERHAPS
DIURNALLY DRIVEN EVEN INTO TUESDAY.  HOWEVER...DESPITE ADDITIONAL
WEAK STREAM ENERGY...ARRIVAL OF SURFACE RIDGE AND AMPLIFICATION OF
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO LIMIT THREAT FOR ANY
ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

UPSLOPING CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST SHOULD MAINTAIN UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NOT LIKELY TO
CLIMB OUT OF THE 60S ON EITHER TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...ANY INFLUENCE OF COLD
ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET BY DOWNSLOPING/COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND
GOOD INSOLATION SUCH THAT HIGHS REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S...YET STILL ~5F LOWER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.

NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE LARGELY GOVERNED BY EXTENT OF MIXING AND
CLOUD COVER. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE/IF CLOUDS CAN CLEAR...AND
ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING WILL
MORE READILY OCCUR...SHOULD EXPERIENCE AT LEAST SPOTTY READINGS DOWN
INTO THE 40S. READINGS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL BE A BIT
MILDER...MAINLY 50S...YET STILL 5-10F BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A SURFACE HIGH THURSDAY OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN WILL SHIFT EAST
TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AT THE MID LEVELS A
PERSISTENT TROUGH IS SET UP OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN US. THURSDAY LACKS LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE SO EXPECT
THE DAY TO BE DRY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE FOR FRIDAY AND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES PIVOT ACROSS
THE REGION AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING AND TAPER OFF TO
JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING. FOCUS OF THE HIGHEST
CHANCE POPS ARE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE WILL
BE LOCATED...WITH LOWER CHANCE POPS OUT EAST.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH 850MB TEMPS
AROUND +16C. THIS WILL CORRESPOND TO SURFACE HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID
80S OUT EAST AND NEAR 80 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST ON FRIDAY THE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM N/NW TO AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION. THIS WILL WEDGE THE AREA IN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. WITH THE INCREASED LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. THIS ALONG WITH EXPECTED SCATTERED PRECIP AND 850MB
TEMPS FALLING TO +11-14C...SURFACE HIGH TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM EDT SUNDAY...

BAND OF SHALLOW CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WORK EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND SHOULD EXIT THE KLYH AREA IN THE NEXT HOUR. ONCE THIS
PASSES...MOST AREAS WILL START TO SEE CIGS GRADUALLY LIFT ALLOWING
A PERIOD OF VFR ACROSS THE REGION INTO MID AFTERNOON...AND
PERHAPS LONGER ACROSS THE EASTERN SITES.

CONFIDENCE NOW LOWER IN REGARDS TO THE DEGREE OF WIDESPREAD
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THAT WILL DEVELOP TO THE WEST AND PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING. COMBO OF RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER
AND BEST SUPPORT BEING WELL TO THE WEST SUGGESTS WILL SEE MORE
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WITH THE BETTER CONCENTRATION ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES FROM KBLF TO KLWB ONCE THEY BECOME MORE UNSTABLE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THUS WILL GOING WITH MORE MVFR IN PREVAILING
SHRA/TSRA AT THESE SPOTS...AND VICINITY MENTION WITH EMBEDDED
TEMPO GROUPS FOR STRONGER STORMS ELSW INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

A COLD FRONT PASSES LATER TONIGHT...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS FROM
THE BLUE RIDGE EAST AND LINGERING MVFR WITH UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE
FAR WEST WHERE A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO LINGER. WINDS TURN GUSTY
FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY WITH GUSTS PERHAPS REACHING 25-30 KTS AT TIMES LATE.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THREAT OF SUB VFR THROUGH MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS
SE WEST VA PER NW FLOW...BUT LESS ELSEWHERE GIVEN DOWNSLOPE.
PERIODIC SHOWERS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG THE NW SLOPES ESPCLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT GIVEN ISOLATED NATURE WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION
FOR NOW.

DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FOR TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WILL BRING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT LATE NIGHT FOG KBCB/KLWB ALTHOUGH
THE LOW LEVELS MAY STAY DRY ENOUGH FOR LESS FOG COVERAGE.

VARIABLE CIGS EXPECTED UNDER ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW THROUGHOUT THE
REST OF THE WEEK. A FEW -SHRA NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION
ACROSS EASTERN WV...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. TYPICAL FOG
POTENTIAL LESS THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK BECAUSE OF TURBULENT MIXING AND PREVAILING CYCLONIC FLOW.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE UPPER LOW RETROGRADES JUST
WEST OF THE REGION...INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA BUT MAINLY
SW OF THE TAF SITES INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE WEATHER RADIO AT HINTON WEST VA TRANSMITTING ON FREQUENCY
162.425 MHZ REMAINS OFF THE AIR LIKELY DUE TO PHONE LINE PROBLEMS.
TECHNICIANS ARE WORKING ON THE PROBLEM BUT TIME OF RESTORATION
REMAINS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...WERT
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...JH/PH
EQUIPMENT...JH



000
FXUS61 KRNK 271900
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
300 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THESE FEATURES MAY
TRIGGER STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY
TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY
MONDAY...RESULTING IN COOLER WEATHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK
WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SUNDAY...

EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLIER IMPULSE SLOWLY
ERODING IN SPOTS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST BUT HAS ACTED TO KEEP A LID
ON INSTABILITY SO FAR GIVEN OVERALL LACK OF HEATING. THIS
EVIDENCED VIA THE SPECIAL 18Z SOUNDING WHICH SHOWS QUITE A CAP
ALOFT WHICH WILL TAKE A LOT MORE HEATING OR DYNAMICS LATER TO
OVERCOME. OTRW NEXT MCS INDUCED WAVE ROLLING SE OUT OF KY THE MAIN
PLAYER INTO LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING AS IT JETS SE IN
ADVANCE OF THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT CURRENTLY BACK IN THE MIDWEST.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO NOT HANDLE THE ONGOING SCENARIO VERY
WELL...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST NSSL WRF TAKES THIS CONVECTION SE INTO
OUR FAR SW COUNTIES WHERE GUIDANCE SHOWS BETTER THETA-E RIDGING
AND SOMEWHAT BETTER LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT WITHIN A
BETTER SW JET ALOFT. OTHER AREA TO WATCH WILL BE OVER THE FAR
WEST THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT AS THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT AND
UPPER COLD POOL DYNAMICS ARRIVE ACROSS THE FAR WEST. HOWEVER
WINDS WILL BE VEERING MORE WESTERLY BY THEN AND ANY INSTABILITY
WANING WHICH SHOULD PUT THE BEST FOCUS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES
WHERE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE BETTER COVERAGE. THIS ACTIVITY
LIKELY TO HAVE A HARD TIME SPILLING EAST BUT KEPT IN CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE EVENING EAST WHILE GOING LIKELYS TO LOW END CAT FAR
WEST EARLY ON.

85H FRONT WILL FINALLY SURGE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...REACHING THE PIEDMONT TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. MUCH DRIER
AIR ARRIVING ALOFT SHOULD CUT INTO ANY LEFTOVER SHRA COVERAGE
WITH ONLY SOME LOW CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS REMAINING IN THE
UPSLOPE REGIONS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN GUSTY ON THE RIDGES
FROM THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ANY ADVISORY
LEVELS ALTHOUGH QUITE BLUSTERY FOR LATE SUMMER. KEPT LOWS MORE IN
LINE WITH THE WARMER MET MOS EAST AND TOOK A BLEND WEST WHERE COOL
ADVECTION MAY BE OFFSET BY MIXING.

5H TROF CROSSES EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO
START BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROUNDING DOWN THE BACK OF THE COOL POOL MAY HELP
TO ENHANCE THE SHOWERS AS IT COINCIDES WITH THE COLDEST 85H TEMPS
AND MAX HEATING. THUS BOOSTED POPS WESTERN SLOPES TO A PERIOD OF
LOW LIKELYS MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A QUICK CUTOFF TO SHRA BLUE
RIDGE AND POINTS EAST WHERE DOWNSLOPING SHOULD ALLOW FOR LESS
CLOUDS. OTRW WILL BE A BREEZY AND COOL DAY FOR LATE JULY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 60S WHERE CLOUDS
PERSIST AND ALONG HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET WELL
INTO THE 80S UNDER DRY DOWNSLOPE PIEDMONT BUT ONLY 75-82 BLUE
RIDGE.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT SATURDAY...

WEST TO NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE BLACKSBURG
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS SERIES OF WEAK SHORT
WAVE TROFS EMBEDDED IN UPPER FLOW HELP ANCHOR PIN-WHEELING UPPER
TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

COOLER AIR ALOFT...WEAK FORCING FROM INITIAL SHORT WAVE...AND WEAK
UPSLOPING MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE WESTERN FLANKS OF THE APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY NIGHT...AND PERHAPS
DIURNALLY DRIVEN EVEN INTO TUESDAY.  HOWEVER...DESPITE ADDITIONAL
WEAK STREAM ENERGY...ARRIVAL OF SURFACE RIDGE AND AMPLIFICATION OF
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO LIMIT THREAT FOR ANY
ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

UPSLOPING CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST SHOULD MAINTAIN UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NOT LIKELY TO
CLIMB OUT OF THE 60S ON EITHER TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...ANY INFLUENCE OF COLD
ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET BY DOWNSLOPING/COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND
GOOD INSOLATION SUCH THAT HIGHS REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S...YET STILL ~5F LOWER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.

NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE LARGELY GOVERNED BY EXTENT OF MIXING AND
CLOUD COVER. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE/IF CLOUDS CAN CLEAR...AND
ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING WILL
MORE READILY OCCUR...SHOULD EXPERIENCE AT LEAST SPOTTY READINGS DOWN
INTO THE 40S. READINGS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL BE A BIT
MILDER...MAINLY 50S...YET STILL 5-10F BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A SURFACE HIGH THURSDAY OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN WILL SHIFT EAST
TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AT THE MID LEVELS A
PERSISTENT TROUGH IS SET UP OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN US. THURSDAY LACKS LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE SO EXPECT
THE DAY TO BE DRY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE FOR FRIDAY AND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES PIVOT ACROSS
THE REGION AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING AND TAPER OFF TO
JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING. FOCUS OF THE HIGHEST
CHANCE POPS ARE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE WILL
BE LOCATED...WITH LOWER CHANCE POPS OUT EAST.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH 850MB TEMPS
AROUND +16C. THIS WILL CORRESPOND TO SURFACE HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID
80S OUT EAST AND NEAR 80 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST ON FRIDAY THE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM N/NW TO AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION. THIS WILL WEDGE THE AREA IN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. WITH THE INCREASED LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. THIS ALONG WITH EXPECTED SCATTERED PRECIP AND 850MB
TEMPS FALLING TO +11-14C...SURFACE HIGH TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM EDT SUNDAY...

BAND OF SHALLOW CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WORK EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND SHOULD EXIT THE KLYH AREA IN THE NEXT HOUR. ONCE THIS
PASSES...MOST AREAS WILL START TO SEE CIGS GRADUALLY LIFT ALLOWING
A PERIOD OF VFR ACROSS THE REGION INTO MID AFTERNOON...AND
PERHAPS LONGER ACROSS THE EASTERN SITES.

CONFIDENCE NOW LOWER IN REGARDS TO THE DEGREE OF WIDESPREAD
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THAT WILL DEVELOP TO THE WEST AND PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING. COMBO OF RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER
AND BEST SUPPORT BEING WELL TO THE WEST SUGGESTS WILL SEE MORE
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WITH THE BETTER CONCENTRATION ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES FROM KBLF TO KLWB ONCE THEY BECOME MORE UNSTABLE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THUS WILL GOING WITH MORE MVFR IN PREVAILING
SHRA/TSRA AT THESE SPOTS...AND VICINITY MENTION WITH EMBEDDED
TEMPO GROUPS FOR STRONGER STORMS ELSW INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

A COLD FRONT PASSES LATER TONIGHT...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS FROM
THE BLUE RIDGE EAST AND LINGERING MVFR WITH UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE
FAR WEST WHERE A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO LINGER. WINDS TURN GUSTY
FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY WITH GUSTS PERHAPS REACHING 25-30 KTS AT TIMES LATE.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THREAT OF SUB VFR THROUGH MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS
SE WEST VA PER NW FLOW...BUT LESS ELSEWHERE GIVEN DOWNSLOPE.
PERIODIC SHOWERS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG THE NW SLOPES ESPCLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT GIVEN ISOLATED NATURE WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION
FOR NOW.

DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FOR TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WILL BRING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT LATE NIGHT FOG KBCB/KLWB ALTHOUGH
THE LOW LEVELS MAY STAY DRY ENOUGH FOR LESS FOG COVERAGE.

VARIABLE CIGS EXPECTED UNDER ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW THROUGHOUT THE
REST OF THE WEEK. A FEW -SHRA NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION
ACROSS EASTERN WV...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. TYPICAL FOG
POTENTIAL LESS THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK BECAUSE OF TURBULENT MIXING AND PREVAILING CYCLONIC FLOW.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE UPPER LOW RETROGRADES JUST
WEST OF THE REGION...INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA BUT MAINLY
SW OF THE TAF SITES INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE WEATHER RADIO AT HINTON WEST VA TRANSMITTING ON FREQUENCY
162.425 MHZ REMAINS OFF THE AIR LIKELY DUE TO PHONE LINE PROBLEMS.
TECHNICIANS ARE WORKING ON THE PROBLEM BUT TIME OF RESTORATION
REMAINS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...WERT
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...JH/PH
EQUIPMENT...JH



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271900
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
300 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON..THEN CROSSES THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
STILL SOME UNCERTAINITIES WRT THE WX ACROSS THE AREA NEXT 6-12 HRS.
SO BASED THE FCST FOR NEXT SVRL HRS OFF OF CRNT RADAR/SFC TRENDS.
BAND OF SHWRS/TSTRMS MOVG EAST ACROSS SRN TIER VA AND NE NC CNTYS
WILL CONT TO MOVE EAST SO KEPT THE LIKELY POPS THERE. JUST SOME
SHWRS NOTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA ATTM. VSBY SAT LOOP SHOWING
PARTIAL THINNING OF THE CLOUDS ACROSS PIEDMONT AREAS. SHORT RANGE
MOS NUMBERS SHOW TMPS QUICKLY RISING INTO THE 80S IF ADDNTL HEATING
CAN OCCUR. SO LEFT HIGH TMPS ALONE FOR NOW (85-90).

WRT CONVECTION LATER TODAY...MAIN ACTION SHIFTS TO THE S/W ENERGY
OVR KY PROGGED TO DRIFT SE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVE. CRNT TRAJECTORY
TRACKS MOST OF THE CONVECTION ALONG AND SOUTH OF I64. HOWEVER..STILL
EXPECT ADDNTL CONVECTION TO DVLP OVR THE MTS THEN MERGE WITH THE
ADVANCING S/W ENERGY. SVR PTNTL STILL EXISTS IF TMPS ARE ABLE TO
RISE TO FCST LEVELS. STAY TUNED.

PVS DSCN:
MADE SOME CHANGES TO GRIDS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS SFC OBS
AND MODEL GUIDANCE. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO ACCOUNT FOR LINE OF
CONVECTION MARCHING EAST ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT ATTM. HRRR SEEMS
TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON THE CRNT TRENDS...SO INCREASED POPS TO
LIKELY ACROSS SRN MOST COUNTIES NEXT SVRL HRS AS THIS LINE MOVES
EAST.. VSBY SAT LOOP SHOWING SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE AHEAD OF IT TO
KEEP THE LINE GOING.

LOWERED TMPS BY A CATEGORY MOST PLACES (CLOSER TO LAV GUID) GIVEN
ALL THE CLOUDS AND PCPN FROM THE MORNING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. TUFF
CALL FOR SERN COUNTIES AS TMPS MAY GET TO 90 THERE...BUT THEN DROP
IN ANY CONVECTION BY ERLY AFTRN.

MAIN QUESTION FOR THIS AFTRN IS HOW MUCH HEATING WILL OCCUR BEHIND
THE FIRST DEPARTING S/W AND AHEAD OF NXT APPRCHG S/W NOW OVR KY
VLLY. LATEST DATA SUGGESTS THIS COMPLEX TAKING A MORE SOUTHERLY
ROUTE (ACROSS SRN HALF OF VA / NC THIS EVENING.

SPC CONTINUES TO HAVE FA OUTLOOKED IN SLGHT RISK WITH A RECENTLY
ISSUED PWO FOR AREAS TO OUR WEST. STAY TUNED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE STRONG COLD FRONT QUICKLY PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.
OVERNIGHT SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE FOCUSED ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AND RE-FIRE IN INTENSITY DUE TO THE ADDED LIFT. OVERALL...
PRECIP SHOULD BE CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS UNTIL THE FRONT CAN
PUSH WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING.
ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS DIMINISHED ON
MONDAY...A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
WEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH AS A COOLER
AND DRIER CANADIAN AIRMASS FILTERS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW-N.
WINDS AND SUNSHINE WILL BE KEY PLAYERS IN HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY.
CURRENT FORECAST RANGES FROM THE UPPER 80S NW TO 90-95 SE.


BNDRY PROGGED TO STALL INVOF GULF STREAM MON NIGHT AND TUE WHILE A
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH. KEPT SLGHT CHC
POPS ALONG SERN CSTL AREAS MON EVENING. LOWS IN THE 60S...XCPT L70S
SERN CSTL AREAS. DRY TUESDAY ALONG WITH LOWER HUMIDITY AS DEWPOINTS
DROP INTO THE 50S. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE L80S...U70S AT
THE BEACHES. LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S W TO MID 60S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF DIGS OVR THE MID ATLC REGION TUE NGT
INTO EARLY THU...BEFORE RETROGRADING BACK INTO THE OH AND MS VALLEYS
THU AFTN THRU SAT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OFF THE MID ATLC
CST TUE NGT THRU FRI...THEN DRIFTS BACK TWD THE CST FRI NGT THRU
SAT. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR TUE NGT THRU FRI...THEN HAVE ADDED
SLGT CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT AND SAT. A MORE COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL
DOMINATE THE AREA TUE NGT THRU THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
HUMIDITY RETURNS FOR FRI AND SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LWR TO MID 80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S
TO MID 60S WED AND THU MORNGS...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI
MORNG...AND RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUD COVER WAS PUTTING A DAMPER ON CONVECTION TODAY. BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST MAY HELP TO PRODUCE WIDELY SCT TSTMS LATER TODAY AND EARLY
THIS EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE. IN THE MEANTIME...AN
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN MOVING THROUGH HAMPTON ROADS/ECG AREA WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST SHORTLY AFTER THE START OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.

INCLUDED A FEW OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AT ALL THE TAF SITES EXCEPT ECG.
THESE COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH TSTMS. WEST WINDS DEVELOP IN THE
MORNING BEHIND A PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND. THESE WINDS DRY OUT THE
ATMOSPHERE AND SHOULD END THE PCPN. THE FRONT ITSELF MOVES THROUGH
EARLY IN THE AFTN. AT THIS POINT AND APPEARS TO BE A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

NO IFR WAS PLACED IN THE TAFS. MVFR FOG IS PSBL AT SBY AND ECG PRIOR
TO THE W/SW WINDS.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST DURING THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG IS PSBL NEAR SUNRISE BUT WIDESPREAD
IFR IS NOT INDICATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES XPCD THRU MON. A CDFNT PUSHES APPROACHES THE MID ATLC
REGION TDA...THEN MOVE ACRS THE WTRS AND OFF THE CST LATE TNGT
THROUGH MON NGT. SSW WINDS 10 TO 20 KT THROUGH TNGT. WINDS WILL TURN
TO THE W DURING MON...THEN NW AND N MON NGT INTO TUE MRNG.
WAVES/SEAS LIKELY TO RISE A FOOT OR TWO IN RESPONSE TO INCRSD SPDS
AND DIRECTION CHG TO NNW (MON NGT INTO TUE). GENERALLY NNE WINDS
15 KT OR LESS EXPECTED FOR TUE THRU THU.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD/MPR
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...ALB







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271900
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
300 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON..THEN CROSSES THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
STILL SOME UNCERTAINITIES WRT THE WX ACROSS THE AREA NEXT 6-12 HRS.
SO BASED THE FCST FOR NEXT SVRL HRS OFF OF CRNT RADAR/SFC TRENDS.
BAND OF SHWRS/TSTRMS MOVG EAST ACROSS SRN TIER VA AND NE NC CNTYS
WILL CONT TO MOVE EAST SO KEPT THE LIKELY POPS THERE. JUST SOME
SHWRS NOTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA ATTM. VSBY SAT LOOP SHOWING
PARTIAL THINNING OF THE CLOUDS ACROSS PIEDMONT AREAS. SHORT RANGE
MOS NUMBERS SHOW TMPS QUICKLY RISING INTO THE 80S IF ADDNTL HEATING
CAN OCCUR. SO LEFT HIGH TMPS ALONE FOR NOW (85-90).

WRT CONVECTION LATER TODAY...MAIN ACTION SHIFTS TO THE S/W ENERGY
OVR KY PROGGED TO DRIFT SE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVE. CRNT TRAJECTORY
TRACKS MOST OF THE CONVECTION ALONG AND SOUTH OF I64. HOWEVER..STILL
EXPECT ADDNTL CONVECTION TO DVLP OVR THE MTS THEN MERGE WITH THE
ADVANCING S/W ENERGY. SVR PTNTL STILL EXISTS IF TMPS ARE ABLE TO
RISE TO FCST LEVELS. STAY TUNED.

PVS DSCN:
MADE SOME CHANGES TO GRIDS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS SFC OBS
AND MODEL GUIDANCE. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO ACCOUNT FOR LINE OF
CONVECTION MARCHING EAST ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT ATTM. HRRR SEEMS
TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON THE CRNT TRENDS...SO INCREASED POPS TO
LIKELY ACROSS SRN MOST COUNTIES NEXT SVRL HRS AS THIS LINE MOVES
EAST.. VSBY SAT LOOP SHOWING SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE AHEAD OF IT TO
KEEP THE LINE GOING.

LOWERED TMPS BY A CATEGORY MOST PLACES (CLOSER TO LAV GUID) GIVEN
ALL THE CLOUDS AND PCPN FROM THE MORNING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. TUFF
CALL FOR SERN COUNTIES AS TMPS MAY GET TO 90 THERE...BUT THEN DROP
IN ANY CONVECTION BY ERLY AFTRN.

MAIN QUESTION FOR THIS AFTRN IS HOW MUCH HEATING WILL OCCUR BEHIND
THE FIRST DEPARTING S/W AND AHEAD OF NXT APPRCHG S/W NOW OVR KY
VLLY. LATEST DATA SUGGESTS THIS COMPLEX TAKING A MORE SOUTHERLY
ROUTE (ACROSS SRN HALF OF VA / NC THIS EVENING.

SPC CONTINUES TO HAVE FA OUTLOOKED IN SLGHT RISK WITH A RECENTLY
ISSUED PWO FOR AREAS TO OUR WEST. STAY TUNED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE STRONG COLD FRONT QUICKLY PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.
OVERNIGHT SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE FOCUSED ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AND RE-FIRE IN INTENSITY DUE TO THE ADDED LIFT. OVERALL...
PRECIP SHOULD BE CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS UNTIL THE FRONT CAN
PUSH WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING.
ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS DIMINISHED ON
MONDAY...A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
WEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH AS A COOLER
AND DRIER CANADIAN AIRMASS FILTERS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW-N.
WINDS AND SUNSHINE WILL BE KEY PLAYERS IN HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY.
CURRENT FORECAST RANGES FROM THE UPPER 80S NW TO 90-95 SE.


BNDRY PROGGED TO STALL INVOF GULF STREAM MON NIGHT AND TUE WHILE A
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH. KEPT SLGHT CHC
POPS ALONG SERN CSTL AREAS MON EVENING. LOWS IN THE 60S...XCPT L70S
SERN CSTL AREAS. DRY TUESDAY ALONG WITH LOWER HUMIDITY AS DEWPOINTS
DROP INTO THE 50S. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE L80S...U70S AT
THE BEACHES. LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S W TO MID 60S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF DIGS OVR THE MID ATLC REGION TUE NGT
INTO EARLY THU...BEFORE RETROGRADING BACK INTO THE OH AND MS VALLEYS
THU AFTN THRU SAT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OFF THE MID ATLC
CST TUE NGT THRU FRI...THEN DRIFTS BACK TWD THE CST FRI NGT THRU
SAT. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR TUE NGT THRU FRI...THEN HAVE ADDED
SLGT CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT AND SAT. A MORE COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL
DOMINATE THE AREA TUE NGT THRU THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
HUMIDITY RETURNS FOR FRI AND SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LWR TO MID 80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S
TO MID 60S WED AND THU MORNGS...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI
MORNG...AND RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUD COVER WAS PUTTING A DAMPER ON CONVECTION TODAY. BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST MAY HELP TO PRODUCE WIDELY SCT TSTMS LATER TODAY AND EARLY
THIS EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE. IN THE MEANTIME...AN
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN MOVING THROUGH HAMPTON ROADS/ECG AREA WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST SHORTLY AFTER THE START OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.

INCLUDED A FEW OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AT ALL THE TAF SITES EXCEPT ECG.
THESE COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH TSTMS. WEST WINDS DEVELOP IN THE
MORNING BEHIND A PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND. THESE WINDS DRY OUT THE
ATMOSPHERE AND SHOULD END THE PCPN. THE FRONT ITSELF MOVES THROUGH
EARLY IN THE AFTN. AT THIS POINT AND APPEARS TO BE A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

NO IFR WAS PLACED IN THE TAFS. MVFR FOG IS PSBL AT SBY AND ECG PRIOR
TO THE W/SW WINDS.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST DURING THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG IS PSBL NEAR SUNRISE BUT WIDESPREAD
IFR IS NOT INDICATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES XPCD THRU MON. A CDFNT PUSHES APPROACHES THE MID ATLC
REGION TDA...THEN MOVE ACRS THE WTRS AND OFF THE CST LATE TNGT
THROUGH MON NGT. SSW WINDS 10 TO 20 KT THROUGH TNGT. WINDS WILL TURN
TO THE W DURING MON...THEN NW AND N MON NGT INTO TUE MRNG.
WAVES/SEAS LIKELY TO RISE A FOOT OR TWO IN RESPONSE TO INCRSD SPDS
AND DIRECTION CHG TO NNW (MON NGT INTO TUE). GENERALLY NNE WINDS
15 KT OR LESS EXPECTED FOR TUE THRU THU.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD/MPR
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...ALB






000
FXUS61 KLWX 271847
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
247 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER MICHIGAN IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WHILE A SFC LOW RESIDES JUST AHEAD OF IT OVER SRN MI THIS AFTERNOON. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM MI THROUGH IN/KY. AHEAD OF THIS
COLD FRONT...SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE LED TO DEWPTS TO CLIMB AROUND 70
DEG F IN THE MID-ATLANTIC. A FEW DISTURBANCES HAVE CROSSED THE
REGION TODAY CAUSING A CHAOTIC CLOUD DECK RESULTING IN SOME AREAS
WARMING FASTER THAN OTHERS. THIS INCLUDES NRN MD AND THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN THIS AREA TO
THE UPPER 70S NEAR CHO.

PER THE MESOANALYSIS...INSTABILITY HAS RISEN TO 1K-2K J/KG ACROSS
THE REGION WITH 2K-3K J/KG NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE WHERE MOST OF
THE HEATING HAS OCCURRED. 0-6 KM SHEAR HAS INCREASED TO 40-50 KTS.
THE EXIT REGION OF THE JET STREAM IS STILL BACK ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY BUT WILL MOVE EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM OHIO AND TRACK E-SE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE UNSTABLE AND
SUITABLE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FORM ON
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN THE OHIO VALLEY AND MOVE EASTWARD BY THIS
EVENING. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO CROSS THE APPALACHIANS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON REACHING THE I-95 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. SUPERCELLS ARE
EXPECTED AND WILL LIKELY LEAD TO DMG WINDS...LARGE
HAILS...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND HEAVY RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME FFG IS
HIGH AND PWATS ARE MARGINAL. FLASH FLOODING IS ALWAYS A CONCERN
WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE OVER THE SAME REGION AND THEREFORE IT
IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
BEEN IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE
LOWER INSTABILITY...AT THIS TIME. THEY ARE TRACKING INTO A
FAVORABLE AREA AND WILL BE MONITORED CLOSLY.

THE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE ERIE LATE TONIGHT
WHILE THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE MID ATLANTIC. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE BAY BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE TROUGH WILL BE OVER NY MONDAY AND WHILE THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
OFF THE COAST. AS ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MONDAY
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY I-66 AND
NORTH MONDAY AFTERNOON. NW WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

FCST MIN TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE HIGHLANDS
TO THE LOW 60S NEAR THE METROS AND WATERS. NRLY WINDS WIL CONTINUE
TUESDAY AND TEMPS WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S WHICH WILL FEEL
LIKE A FALL DAY FOR THE MID-ATLATNIC.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEAN TROUGHING WILL PERSIST ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. DRY AIR AND NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY AND COOLER
THAN NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD.

MODELS INDICATE THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE BACK WEST OF
THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
RE-ESTABLISHES ITS HOLD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THE TROUGH
MOVES BACK/REDEVELOPS TO OUR WEST...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
INCREASING THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY AS WELL AS THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND
WOULD SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN GIVEN THE LONG AND
PERSISTENT TRAJECTORY OF WIND OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO RIDING ALONG
A STALLED OR SLOW-MOVING FRONT.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND LIKELY IMPACT THE
TERMINALS. MVFR/IFR IS LIKELY IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE RESULTING IN
STRONG WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. HEAVY RAIN WILL
ALSO CAUSE LOW VSBYS. THIS ACTIVITY ALL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE THROUGH MRB
THE EVENING TO THE DCA-BWI-MTN BY MIDNIGHT.

N-NW WINDS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY. SHRA AND -TSRA IS
POSSIBLE MONDAY AS ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. NW WINDS AROUND
10-15KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS.

NW FLOW GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS W/ VFR TUE-THU.

&&

.MARINE...
S-SW FLOW EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BECOME NWLY
MONDAY. A SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. PORTIONS
OF THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC AND CHESAPEAKE BAY WILL DROP LATE
TONIGHT. A SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE WATERS MONDAY.

RELATIVELY BENIGN SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
NEARBY OR OVERHEAD TUE NIGHT-FRI IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS. WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE NEXT
WEEKEND...POSSIBLY TO SCA LEVELS BUT THAT IS UNCLEAR THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ530-531-
     535-536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     540-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...HAS/DFH
MARINE...HAS/DFH







000
FXUS61 KLWX 271847
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
247 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER MICHIGAN IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WHILE A SFC LOW RESIDES JUST AHEAD OF IT OVER SRN MI THIS AFTERNOON. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM MI THROUGH IN/KY. AHEAD OF THIS
COLD FRONT...SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE LED TO DEWPTS TO CLIMB AROUND 70
DEG F IN THE MID-ATLANTIC. A FEW DISTURBANCES HAVE CROSSED THE
REGION TODAY CAUSING A CHAOTIC CLOUD DECK RESULTING IN SOME AREAS
WARMING FASTER THAN OTHERS. THIS INCLUDES NRN MD AND THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN THIS AREA TO
THE UPPER 70S NEAR CHO.

PER THE MESOANALYSIS...INSTABILITY HAS RISEN TO 1K-2K J/KG ACROSS
THE REGION WITH 2K-3K J/KG NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE WHERE MOST OF
THE HEATING HAS OCCURRED. 0-6 KM SHEAR HAS INCREASED TO 40-50 KTS.
THE EXIT REGION OF THE JET STREAM IS STILL BACK ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY BUT WILL MOVE EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM OHIO AND TRACK E-SE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE UNSTABLE AND
SUITABLE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FORM ON
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN THE OHIO VALLEY AND MOVE EASTWARD BY THIS
EVENING. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO CROSS THE APPALACHIANS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON REACHING THE I-95 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. SUPERCELLS ARE
EXPECTED AND WILL LIKELY LEAD TO DMG WINDS...LARGE
HAILS...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND HEAVY RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME FFG IS
HIGH AND PWATS ARE MARGINAL. FLASH FLOODING IS ALWAYS A CONCERN
WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE OVER THE SAME REGION AND THEREFORE IT
IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
BEEN IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE
LOWER INSTABILITY...AT THIS TIME. THEY ARE TRACKING INTO A
FAVORABLE AREA AND WILL BE MONITORED CLOSLY.

THE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE ERIE LATE TONIGHT
WHILE THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE MID ATLANTIC. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE BAY BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE TROUGH WILL BE OVER NY MONDAY AND WHILE THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
OFF THE COAST. AS ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MONDAY
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY I-66 AND
NORTH MONDAY AFTERNOON. NW WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

FCST MIN TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE HIGHLANDS
TO THE LOW 60S NEAR THE METROS AND WATERS. NRLY WINDS WIL CONTINUE
TUESDAY AND TEMPS WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S WHICH WILL FEEL
LIKE A FALL DAY FOR THE MID-ATLATNIC.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEAN TROUGHING WILL PERSIST ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. DRY AIR AND NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY AND COOLER
THAN NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD.

MODELS INDICATE THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE BACK WEST OF
THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
RE-ESTABLISHES ITS HOLD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THE TROUGH
MOVES BACK/REDEVELOPS TO OUR WEST...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
INCREASING THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY AS WELL AS THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND
WOULD SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN GIVEN THE LONG AND
PERSISTENT TRAJECTORY OF WIND OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO RIDING ALONG
A STALLED OR SLOW-MOVING FRONT.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND LIKELY IMPACT THE
TERMINALS. MVFR/IFR IS LIKELY IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE RESULTING IN
STRONG WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. HEAVY RAIN WILL
ALSO CAUSE LOW VSBYS. THIS ACTIVITY ALL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE THROUGH MRB
THE EVENING TO THE DCA-BWI-MTN BY MIDNIGHT.

N-NW WINDS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY. SHRA AND -TSRA IS
POSSIBLE MONDAY AS ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. NW WINDS AROUND
10-15KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS.

NW FLOW GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS W/ VFR TUE-THU.

&&

.MARINE...
S-SW FLOW EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BECOME NWLY
MONDAY. A SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. PORTIONS
OF THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC AND CHESAPEAKE BAY WILL DROP LATE
TONIGHT. A SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE WATERS MONDAY.

RELATIVELY BENIGN SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
NEARBY OR OVERHEAD TUE NIGHT-FRI IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS. WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE NEXT
WEEKEND...POSSIBLY TO SCA LEVELS BUT THAT IS UNCLEAR THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ530-531-
     535-536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     540-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...HAS/DFH
MARINE...HAS/DFH








000
FXUS61 KRNK 271656
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1256 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL
BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. THESE FEATURES
MAY TRIGGER STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION BY EARLY MONDAY...RESULTING IN COOLER WEATHER INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1020 AM EDT SUNDAY...

FORECAST REMAINS COMPLICATED INTO THIS EVENING GIVEN TIMING
ISSUES OF IMPULSES ALOFT AND MODEL UNCERTAINTY WITH THESE
FEATURES. CURRENT SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE REGION THAT CAUSED THE
EARLIER ARRIVAL OF SHRA/TSRA EARLY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE BANDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE WEST BUT ALSO A QUITE
EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUD COVER WITHIN THE APPARENT LEFTOVER COOL
POOL. NEXT UPSTREAM VORT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT LOOKS TO BE THE
MAIN PLAYER FOR STRONGER STORMS LATER ON WILL WORK AROUND THE
UPSTREAM UPPER TROF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT EARLY TONIGHT. FORECAST SHEAR AND HELICITY
QUITE LARGE AS WELL AS LAPSES BUT ALL DEPENDENT UPON INSTABILITY
WHICH WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE FOR ORGANIZED COVERAGE LATER ON.
LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHIFT THE BETTER LIFT TO LATER IN
THE DAY AND MORESO THIS EVENING AS WILL LIKELY TAKE LONGER TO GET
AT LEAST DECENT HEATING AND CAPES REACHING 1-2K J/KG. THUS MAY
HAVE A SITUATION WHERE INITIALLY WILL SEE MORE ELEVATED CONVECTION
ESPCLY NORTH/CENTRAL SECTIONS...WITH MORE SURFACE BASED STORMS
TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE FAR SW PER BETTER THETA-E AND HEATING
UNDER THE INCREASING SW JET. OTRW COMBO OF WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
EARLY CLOUDS/SHRA LIKELY TO CAUSE LESS EARLY ON...SO LOWERED POPS
SOUTHERN/EAST TO INIT...THEN INCREASED WEST FOR LEAST MORE SHRA
EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT MCS BEFORE THINGS PERHAPS COME
TOGETHER FOR DEEPER CONVECTION ESPCLY WEST- NORTH LATE IN THE DAY.
CONSIDERED A FLOOD WATCH OVER THE FAR WEST/NW WHERE 12Z GUIDANCE
SHOWING IN EXCESS OF AN INCH OF RAIN BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY AND
LIGHT AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW.

TEMPS REMAIN QUITE TRICKY AS SEEING LITTLE RISE ATTM AND WITH
LATEST LAV MO COOLER...EXPECT MORE LATE DAY HIGHS SO LOWERED A
CAT OR SO MOST SPOTS WHICH MAY NOT BE COOL ENOUGH OVER THE NW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 500 AM EDT SUNDAY...

SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES
OVERHEAD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AROUND A HALF INCH
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...WITH AMOUNTS TAPERING DOWN TO A
FEW HUNDREDTHS FURTHER EAST. IN ADDITION TO THE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY
AFFECTING OUR AREA...ALSO KEEPING AN EYE ON TWO OTHER AREAS OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ONE ENTERING WESTERN KENTUCKY AND ANOTHER
OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS.

RAPID UPDATE FORECAST MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY WILL SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST...
PUSHING INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS LATE MORNING TO AROUND
NOON. WHILE THE DISTURBANCE TRIGGERING THESE STORMS MAY REMAIN
STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...
WONDERING IF THE CLOUD COVER IT PRODUCES WILL ALSO LIMIT
INSTABILITY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460 DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
THE SECOND...MORE POTENT DISTURBANCE PUSHES EAST ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER.

THE SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL BRING WITH IT AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
MID LEVEL WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 50KT TO 60KT. WITH CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED TO BE MORE DIMINISHED HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 460...EXPECT GREATER INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA. MODELS ARE
IN AGREEMENT ON BRINGING THE SECOND LINE OF STORMS INTO SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA DURING THE 6PM TO 8PM TIME FRAME...WITH CONVECTION
QUICKLY SPREADING EAST THEREAFTER. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS WILL BE POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS AS THE DOWNDRAFTS PULL
THE STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS TO THE SURFACE. HAIL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE STRONGER CELLS...AS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN DUE TO THE UNUSUALLY HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM. DUE TO THE STRONG SHEAR PRESENTED BY THIS SYSTEM...
CANNOT EVEN RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO...ALTHOUGH BELIEVE THE
THREAT IS HIGHER WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS...OUTSIDE OUR FORECAST
AREA.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH DURING LATE EVENING
AS THE LINE PASSES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND BEGINS TO MOVE
DOWNSLOPE...ALTHOUGH SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN
THROUGH MIDNIGHT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT
WESTERLY EARLY MONDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION...LEAVING ONLY UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS.

AS MENTIONED BEFORE...CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS ARE ADDING TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF MANY ASPECTS OF THE FORECAST...INCLUDING AFTERNOON
HIGHS. HAVE UNDERCUT MAV/MET GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES...OPTING
FOR THE COOLER MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...

BY 12Z (8 AM EDT) MONDAY...THE DYNAMIC UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
HAVE LIFTED INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S. LEAVING A DEEP LOW LEVEL
NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE. FAIR PRESSURE RISES AND 40+ KT 850MB WINDS
SHOULD GENERATE GUSTY WINDS...BUT SPEEDS REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

RESIDUAL MOISTURE BELOW 4K FT SHOWN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS FORCED UP
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES...COMBINED WITH LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN
6.5 C/KM WILL HELP GENERATE UPSLOPE SHOWERS MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY
EVENING.

LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS MONDAY...HOWEVER...WITH
DOWNSLOPING WINDS...TEMPS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL STILL MANAGE
TO REACH WELL INTO THE 80S.

CHANCE FOR UPSLOPE SHOWERS DIMINISH TUESDAY AND UPSLOPE FLOW WEAKENS
AND LOW LEVEL DRYING CONTINUES.  AS THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE ALSO WEAKENS...COOLING TREND CONTINUES AND WENT SLIGHTLY
BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TUESDAY. ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL EASTERN U.S. TROF HELPS DEVELOP A WEAK SFC LOW ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS LATE TUESDAY. MODELS HINT THAT THIS MAY PRODUCE A WEAK
EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE FAR EAST AND PERHAPS BRING SOME CLOUDS TO
THIS REGION.  ACROSS THE WEST...HOWEVER...SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT TO DROP INTO THE 40S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A SURFACE HIGH THURSDAY OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN WILL SHIFT EAST
TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AT THE MID LEVELS A
PERSISTENT TROUGH IS SET UP OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN US. THURSDAY LACKS LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE SO EXPECT
THE DAY TO BE DRY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE FOR FRIDAY AND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES PIVOT ACROSS
THE REGION AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING AND TAPER OFF TO
JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING. FOCUS OF THE HIGHEST
CHANCE POPS ARE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE WILL
BE LOCATED...WITH LOWER CHANCE POPS OUT EAST.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH 850MB TEMPS
AROUND +16C. THIS WILL CORRESPOND TO SURFACE HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID
80S OUT EAST AND NEAR 80 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST ON FRIDAY THE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM N/NW TO AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION. THIS WILL WEDGE THE AREA IN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. WITH THE INCREASED LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. THIS ALONG WITH EXPECTED SCATTERED PRECIP AND 850MB
TEMPS FALLING TO +11-14C...SURFACE HIGH TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM EDT SUNDAY...

BAND OF SHALLOW CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WORK EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND SHOULD EXIT THE KLYH AREA IN THE NEXT HOUR. ONCE THIS
PASSES...MOST AREAS WILL START TO SEE CIGS GRADUALLY LIFT ALLOWING
A PERIOD OF VFR ACROSS THE REGION INTO MID AFTERNOON...AND
PERHAPS LONGER ACROSS THE EASTERN SITES.

CONFIDENCE NOW LOWER IN REGARDS TO THE DEGREE OF WIDESPREAD
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THAT WILL DEVELOP TO THE WEST AND PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING. COMBO OF RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER
AND BEST SUPPORT BEING WELL TO THE WEST SUGGESTS WILL SEE MORE
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WITH THE BETTER CONCENTRATION ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES FROM KBLF TO KLWB ONCE THEY BECOME MORE UNSTABLE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THUS WILL GOING WITH MORE MVFR IN PREVAILING
SHRA/TSRA AT THESE SPOTS...AND VICINITY MENTION WITH EMBEDDED
TEMPO GROUPS FOR STRONGER STORMS ELSW INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

A COLD FRONT PASSES LATER TONIGHT...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS FROM
THE BLUE RIDGE EAST AND LINGERING MVFR WITH UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE
FAR WEST WHERE A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO LINGER. WINDS TURN GUSTY
FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY WITH GUSTS PERHAPS REACHING 25-30 KTS AT TIMES LATE.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THREAT OF SUB VFR THROUGH MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS
SE WEST VA PER NW FLOW...BUT LESS ELSEWHERE GIVEN DOWNSLOPE.
PERIODIC SHOWERS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG THE NW SLOPES ESPCLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT GIVEN ISOLATED NATURE WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION
FOR NOW.

DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FOR TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WILL BRING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT LATE NIGHT FOG KBCB/KLWB ALTHOUGH
THE LOW LEVELS MAY STAY DRY ENOUGH FOR LESS FOG COVERAGE.

VARIABLE CIGS EXPECTED UNDER ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW THROUGHOUT THE
REST OF THE WEEK. A FEW -SHRA NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION
ACROSS EASTERN WV...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. TYPICAL FOG
POTENTIAL LESS THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK BECAUSE OF TURBULENT MIXING AND PREVAILING CYCLONIC FLOW.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE UPPER LOW RETROGRADES JUST
WEST OF THE REGION...INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA BUT MAINLY
SW OF THE TAF SITES INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...JH/NF
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...JH/PH




000
FXUS61 KRNK 271656
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1256 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL
BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. THESE FEATURES
MAY TRIGGER STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION BY EARLY MONDAY...RESULTING IN COOLER WEATHER INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1020 AM EDT SUNDAY...

FORECAST REMAINS COMPLICATED INTO THIS EVENING GIVEN TIMING
ISSUES OF IMPULSES ALOFT AND MODEL UNCERTAINTY WITH THESE
FEATURES. CURRENT SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE REGION THAT CAUSED THE
EARLIER ARRIVAL OF SHRA/TSRA EARLY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE BANDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE WEST BUT ALSO A QUITE
EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUD COVER WITHIN THE APPARENT LEFTOVER COOL
POOL. NEXT UPSTREAM VORT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT LOOKS TO BE THE
MAIN PLAYER FOR STRONGER STORMS LATER ON WILL WORK AROUND THE
UPSTREAM UPPER TROF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT EARLY TONIGHT. FORECAST SHEAR AND HELICITY
QUITE LARGE AS WELL AS LAPSES BUT ALL DEPENDENT UPON INSTABILITY
WHICH WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE FOR ORGANIZED COVERAGE LATER ON.
LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHIFT THE BETTER LIFT TO LATER IN
THE DAY AND MORESO THIS EVENING AS WILL LIKELY TAKE LONGER TO GET
AT LEAST DECENT HEATING AND CAPES REACHING 1-2K J/KG. THUS MAY
HAVE A SITUATION WHERE INITIALLY WILL SEE MORE ELEVATED CONVECTION
ESPCLY NORTH/CENTRAL SECTIONS...WITH MORE SURFACE BASED STORMS
TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE FAR SW PER BETTER THETA-E AND HEATING
UNDER THE INCREASING SW JET. OTRW COMBO OF WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
EARLY CLOUDS/SHRA LIKELY TO CAUSE LESS EARLY ON...SO LOWERED POPS
SOUTHERN/EAST TO INIT...THEN INCREASED WEST FOR LEAST MORE SHRA
EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT MCS BEFORE THINGS PERHAPS COME
TOGETHER FOR DEEPER CONVECTION ESPCLY WEST- NORTH LATE IN THE DAY.
CONSIDERED A FLOOD WATCH OVER THE FAR WEST/NW WHERE 12Z GUIDANCE
SHOWING IN EXCESS OF AN INCH OF RAIN BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY AND
LIGHT AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW.

TEMPS REMAIN QUITE TRICKY AS SEEING LITTLE RISE ATTM AND WITH
LATEST LAV MO COOLER...EXPECT MORE LATE DAY HIGHS SO LOWERED A
CAT OR SO MOST SPOTS WHICH MAY NOT BE COOL ENOUGH OVER THE NW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 500 AM EDT SUNDAY...

SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES
OVERHEAD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AROUND A HALF INCH
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...WITH AMOUNTS TAPERING DOWN TO A
FEW HUNDREDTHS FURTHER EAST. IN ADDITION TO THE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY
AFFECTING OUR AREA...ALSO KEEPING AN EYE ON TWO OTHER AREAS OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ONE ENTERING WESTERN KENTUCKY AND ANOTHER
OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS.

RAPID UPDATE FORECAST MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY WILL SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST...
PUSHING INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS LATE MORNING TO AROUND
NOON. WHILE THE DISTURBANCE TRIGGERING THESE STORMS MAY REMAIN
STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...
WONDERING IF THE CLOUD COVER IT PRODUCES WILL ALSO LIMIT
INSTABILITY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460 DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
THE SECOND...MORE POTENT DISTURBANCE PUSHES EAST ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER.

THE SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL BRING WITH IT AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
MID LEVEL WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 50KT TO 60KT. WITH CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED TO BE MORE DIMINISHED HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 460...EXPECT GREATER INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA. MODELS ARE
IN AGREEMENT ON BRINGING THE SECOND LINE OF STORMS INTO SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA DURING THE 6PM TO 8PM TIME FRAME...WITH CONVECTION
QUICKLY SPREADING EAST THEREAFTER. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS WILL BE POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS AS THE DOWNDRAFTS PULL
THE STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS TO THE SURFACE. HAIL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE STRONGER CELLS...AS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN DUE TO THE UNUSUALLY HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM. DUE TO THE STRONG SHEAR PRESENTED BY THIS SYSTEM...
CANNOT EVEN RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO...ALTHOUGH BELIEVE THE
THREAT IS HIGHER WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS...OUTSIDE OUR FORECAST
AREA.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH DURING LATE EVENING
AS THE LINE PASSES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND BEGINS TO MOVE
DOWNSLOPE...ALTHOUGH SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN
THROUGH MIDNIGHT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT
WESTERLY EARLY MONDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION...LEAVING ONLY UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS.

AS MENTIONED BEFORE...CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS ARE ADDING TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF MANY ASPECTS OF THE FORECAST...INCLUDING AFTERNOON
HIGHS. HAVE UNDERCUT MAV/MET GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES...OPTING
FOR THE COOLER MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...

BY 12Z (8 AM EDT) MONDAY...THE DYNAMIC UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
HAVE LIFTED INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S. LEAVING A DEEP LOW LEVEL
NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE. FAIR PRESSURE RISES AND 40+ KT 850MB WINDS
SHOULD GENERATE GUSTY WINDS...BUT SPEEDS REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

RESIDUAL MOISTURE BELOW 4K FT SHOWN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS FORCED UP
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES...COMBINED WITH LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN
6.5 C/KM WILL HELP GENERATE UPSLOPE SHOWERS MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY
EVENING.

LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS MONDAY...HOWEVER...WITH
DOWNSLOPING WINDS...TEMPS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL STILL MANAGE
TO REACH WELL INTO THE 80S.

CHANCE FOR UPSLOPE SHOWERS DIMINISH TUESDAY AND UPSLOPE FLOW WEAKENS
AND LOW LEVEL DRYING CONTINUES.  AS THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE ALSO WEAKENS...COOLING TREND CONTINUES AND WENT SLIGHTLY
BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TUESDAY. ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL EASTERN U.S. TROF HELPS DEVELOP A WEAK SFC LOW ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS LATE TUESDAY. MODELS HINT THAT THIS MAY PRODUCE A WEAK
EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE FAR EAST AND PERHAPS BRING SOME CLOUDS TO
THIS REGION.  ACROSS THE WEST...HOWEVER...SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT TO DROP INTO THE 40S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A SURFACE HIGH THURSDAY OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN WILL SHIFT EAST
TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AT THE MID LEVELS A
PERSISTENT TROUGH IS SET UP OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN US. THURSDAY LACKS LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE SO EXPECT
THE DAY TO BE DRY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE FOR FRIDAY AND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES PIVOT ACROSS
THE REGION AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING AND TAPER OFF TO
JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING. FOCUS OF THE HIGHEST
CHANCE POPS ARE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE WILL
BE LOCATED...WITH LOWER CHANCE POPS OUT EAST.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH 850MB TEMPS
AROUND +16C. THIS WILL CORRESPOND TO SURFACE HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID
80S OUT EAST AND NEAR 80 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST ON FRIDAY THE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM N/NW TO AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION. THIS WILL WEDGE THE AREA IN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. WITH THE INCREASED LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. THIS ALONG WITH EXPECTED SCATTERED PRECIP AND 850MB
TEMPS FALLING TO +11-14C...SURFACE HIGH TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM EDT SUNDAY...

BAND OF SHALLOW CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WORK EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND SHOULD EXIT THE KLYH AREA IN THE NEXT HOUR. ONCE THIS
PASSES...MOST AREAS WILL START TO SEE CIGS GRADUALLY LIFT ALLOWING
A PERIOD OF VFR ACROSS THE REGION INTO MID AFTERNOON...AND
PERHAPS LONGER ACROSS THE EASTERN SITES.

CONFIDENCE NOW LOWER IN REGARDS TO THE DEGREE OF WIDESPREAD
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THAT WILL DEVELOP TO THE WEST AND PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING. COMBO OF RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER
AND BEST SUPPORT BEING WELL TO THE WEST SUGGESTS WILL SEE MORE
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WITH THE BETTER CONCENTRATION ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES FROM KBLF TO KLWB ONCE THEY BECOME MORE UNSTABLE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THUS WILL GOING WITH MORE MVFR IN PREVAILING
SHRA/TSRA AT THESE SPOTS...AND VICINITY MENTION WITH EMBEDDED
TEMPO GROUPS FOR STRONGER STORMS ELSW INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

A COLD FRONT PASSES LATER TONIGHT...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS FROM
THE BLUE RIDGE EAST AND LINGERING MVFR WITH UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE
FAR WEST WHERE A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO LINGER. WINDS TURN GUSTY
FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY WITH GUSTS PERHAPS REACHING 25-30 KTS AT TIMES LATE.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THREAT OF SUB VFR THROUGH MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS
SE WEST VA PER NW FLOW...BUT LESS ELSEWHERE GIVEN DOWNSLOPE.
PERIODIC SHOWERS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG THE NW SLOPES ESPCLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT GIVEN ISOLATED NATURE WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION
FOR NOW.

DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FOR TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WILL BRING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT LATE NIGHT FOG KBCB/KLWB ALTHOUGH
THE LOW LEVELS MAY STAY DRY ENOUGH FOR LESS FOG COVERAGE.

VARIABLE CIGS EXPECTED UNDER ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW THROUGHOUT THE
REST OF THE WEEK. A FEW -SHRA NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION
ACROSS EASTERN WV...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. TYPICAL FOG
POTENTIAL LESS THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK BECAUSE OF TURBULENT MIXING AND PREVAILING CYCLONIC FLOW.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE UPPER LOW RETROGRADES JUST
WEST OF THE REGION...INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA BUT MAINLY
SW OF THE TAF SITES INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...JH/NF
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...JH/PH




000
FXUS61 KRNK 271656
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1256 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL
BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. THESE FEATURES
MAY TRIGGER STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION BY EARLY MONDAY...RESULTING IN COOLER WEATHER INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1020 AM EDT SUNDAY...

FORECAST REMAINS COMPLICATED INTO THIS EVENING GIVEN TIMING
ISSUES OF IMPULSES ALOFT AND MODEL UNCERTAINTY WITH THESE
FEATURES. CURRENT SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE REGION THAT CAUSED THE
EARLIER ARRIVAL OF SHRA/TSRA EARLY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE BANDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE WEST BUT ALSO A QUITE
EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUD COVER WITHIN THE APPARENT LEFTOVER COOL
POOL. NEXT UPSTREAM VORT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT LOOKS TO BE THE
MAIN PLAYER FOR STRONGER STORMS LATER ON WILL WORK AROUND THE
UPSTREAM UPPER TROF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT EARLY TONIGHT. FORECAST SHEAR AND HELICITY
QUITE LARGE AS WELL AS LAPSES BUT ALL DEPENDENT UPON INSTABILITY
WHICH WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE FOR ORGANIZED COVERAGE LATER ON.
LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHIFT THE BETTER LIFT TO LATER IN
THE DAY AND MORESO THIS EVENING AS WILL LIKELY TAKE LONGER TO GET
AT LEAST DECENT HEATING AND CAPES REACHING 1-2K J/KG. THUS MAY
HAVE A SITUATION WHERE INITIALLY WILL SEE MORE ELEVATED CONVECTION
ESPCLY NORTH/CENTRAL SECTIONS...WITH MORE SURFACE BASED STORMS
TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE FAR SW PER BETTER THETA-E AND HEATING
UNDER THE INCREASING SW JET. OTRW COMBO OF WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
EARLY CLOUDS/SHRA LIKELY TO CAUSE LESS EARLY ON...SO LOWERED POPS
SOUTHERN/EAST TO INIT...THEN INCREASED WEST FOR LEAST MORE SHRA
EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT MCS BEFORE THINGS PERHAPS COME
TOGETHER FOR DEEPER CONVECTION ESPCLY WEST- NORTH LATE IN THE DAY.
CONSIDERED A FLOOD WATCH OVER THE FAR WEST/NW WHERE 12Z GUIDANCE
SHOWING IN EXCESS OF AN INCH OF RAIN BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY AND
LIGHT AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW.

TEMPS REMAIN QUITE TRICKY AS SEEING LITTLE RISE ATTM AND WITH
LATEST LAV MO COOLER...EXPECT MORE LATE DAY HIGHS SO LOWERED A
CAT OR SO MOST SPOTS WHICH MAY NOT BE COOL ENOUGH OVER THE NW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 500 AM EDT SUNDAY...

SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES
OVERHEAD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AROUND A HALF INCH
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...WITH AMOUNTS TAPERING DOWN TO A
FEW HUNDREDTHS FURTHER EAST. IN ADDITION TO THE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY
AFFECTING OUR AREA...ALSO KEEPING AN EYE ON TWO OTHER AREAS OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ONE ENTERING WESTERN KENTUCKY AND ANOTHER
OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS.

RAPID UPDATE FORECAST MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY WILL SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST...
PUSHING INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS LATE MORNING TO AROUND
NOON. WHILE THE DISTURBANCE TRIGGERING THESE STORMS MAY REMAIN
STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...
WONDERING IF THE CLOUD COVER IT PRODUCES WILL ALSO LIMIT
INSTABILITY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460 DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
THE SECOND...MORE POTENT DISTURBANCE PUSHES EAST ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER.

THE SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL BRING WITH IT AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
MID LEVEL WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 50KT TO 60KT. WITH CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED TO BE MORE DIMINISHED HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 460...EXPECT GREATER INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA. MODELS ARE
IN AGREEMENT ON BRINGING THE SECOND LINE OF STORMS INTO SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA DURING THE 6PM TO 8PM TIME FRAME...WITH CONVECTION
QUICKLY SPREADING EAST THEREAFTER. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS WILL BE POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS AS THE DOWNDRAFTS PULL
THE STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS TO THE SURFACE. HAIL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE STRONGER CELLS...AS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN DUE TO THE UNUSUALLY HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM. DUE TO THE STRONG SHEAR PRESENTED BY THIS SYSTEM...
CANNOT EVEN RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO...ALTHOUGH BELIEVE THE
THREAT IS HIGHER WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS...OUTSIDE OUR FORECAST
AREA.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH DURING LATE EVENING
AS THE LINE PASSES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND BEGINS TO MOVE
DOWNSLOPE...ALTHOUGH SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN
THROUGH MIDNIGHT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT
WESTERLY EARLY MONDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION...LEAVING ONLY UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS.

AS MENTIONED BEFORE...CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS ARE ADDING TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF MANY ASPECTS OF THE FORECAST...INCLUDING AFTERNOON
HIGHS. HAVE UNDERCUT MAV/MET GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES...OPTING
FOR THE COOLER MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...

BY 12Z (8 AM EDT) MONDAY...THE DYNAMIC UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
HAVE LIFTED INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S. LEAVING A DEEP LOW LEVEL
NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE. FAIR PRESSURE RISES AND 40+ KT 850MB WINDS
SHOULD GENERATE GUSTY WINDS...BUT SPEEDS REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

RESIDUAL MOISTURE BELOW 4K FT SHOWN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS FORCED UP
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES...COMBINED WITH LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN
6.5 C/KM WILL HELP GENERATE UPSLOPE SHOWERS MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY
EVENING.

LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS MONDAY...HOWEVER...WITH
DOWNSLOPING WINDS...TEMPS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL STILL MANAGE
TO REACH WELL INTO THE 80S.

CHANCE FOR UPSLOPE SHOWERS DIMINISH TUESDAY AND UPSLOPE FLOW WEAKENS
AND LOW LEVEL DRYING CONTINUES.  AS THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE ALSO WEAKENS...COOLING TREND CONTINUES AND WENT SLIGHTLY
BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TUESDAY. ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL EASTERN U.S. TROF HELPS DEVELOP A WEAK SFC LOW ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS LATE TUESDAY. MODELS HINT THAT THIS MAY PRODUCE A WEAK
EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE FAR EAST AND PERHAPS BRING SOME CLOUDS TO
THIS REGION.  ACROSS THE WEST...HOWEVER...SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT TO DROP INTO THE 40S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A SURFACE HIGH THURSDAY OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN WILL SHIFT EAST
TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AT THE MID LEVELS A
PERSISTENT TROUGH IS SET UP OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN US. THURSDAY LACKS LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE SO EXPECT
THE DAY TO BE DRY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE FOR FRIDAY AND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES PIVOT ACROSS
THE REGION AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING AND TAPER OFF TO
JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING. FOCUS OF THE HIGHEST
CHANCE POPS ARE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE WILL
BE LOCATED...WITH LOWER CHANCE POPS OUT EAST.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH 850MB TEMPS
AROUND +16C. THIS WILL CORRESPOND TO SURFACE HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID
80S OUT EAST AND NEAR 80 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST ON FRIDAY THE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM N/NW TO AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION. THIS WILL WEDGE THE AREA IN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. WITH THE INCREASED LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. THIS ALONG WITH EXPECTED SCATTERED PRECIP AND 850MB
TEMPS FALLING TO +11-14C...SURFACE HIGH TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM EDT SUNDAY...

BAND OF SHALLOW CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WORK EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND SHOULD EXIT THE KLYH AREA IN THE NEXT HOUR. ONCE THIS
PASSES...MOST AREAS WILL START TO SEE CIGS GRADUALLY LIFT ALLOWING
A PERIOD OF VFR ACROSS THE REGION INTO MID AFTERNOON...AND
PERHAPS LONGER ACROSS THE EASTERN SITES.

CONFIDENCE NOW LOWER IN REGARDS TO THE DEGREE OF WIDESPREAD
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THAT WILL DEVELOP TO THE WEST AND PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING. COMBO OF RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER
AND BEST SUPPORT BEING WELL TO THE WEST SUGGESTS WILL SEE MORE
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WITH THE BETTER CONCENTRATION ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES FROM KBLF TO KLWB ONCE THEY BECOME MORE UNSTABLE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THUS WILL GOING WITH MORE MVFR IN PREVAILING
SHRA/TSRA AT THESE SPOTS...AND VICINITY MENTION WITH EMBEDDED
TEMPO GROUPS FOR STRONGER STORMS ELSW INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

A COLD FRONT PASSES LATER TONIGHT...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS FROM
THE BLUE RIDGE EAST AND LINGERING MVFR WITH UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE
FAR WEST WHERE A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO LINGER. WINDS TURN GUSTY
FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY WITH GUSTS PERHAPS REACHING 25-30 KTS AT TIMES LATE.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THREAT OF SUB VFR THROUGH MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS
SE WEST VA PER NW FLOW...BUT LESS ELSEWHERE GIVEN DOWNSLOPE.
PERIODIC SHOWERS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG THE NW SLOPES ESPCLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT GIVEN ISOLATED NATURE WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION
FOR NOW.

DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FOR TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WILL BRING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT LATE NIGHT FOG KBCB/KLWB ALTHOUGH
THE LOW LEVELS MAY STAY DRY ENOUGH FOR LESS FOG COVERAGE.

VARIABLE CIGS EXPECTED UNDER ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW THROUGHOUT THE
REST OF THE WEEK. A FEW -SHRA NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION
ACROSS EASTERN WV...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. TYPICAL FOG
POTENTIAL LESS THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK BECAUSE OF TURBULENT MIXING AND PREVAILING CYCLONIC FLOW.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE UPPER LOW RETROGRADES JUST
WEST OF THE REGION...INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA BUT MAINLY
SW OF THE TAF SITES INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...JH/NF
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...JH/PH




000
FXUS61 KRNK 271656
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1256 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL
BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. THESE FEATURES
MAY TRIGGER STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION BY EARLY MONDAY...RESULTING IN COOLER WEATHER INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1020 AM EDT SUNDAY...

FORECAST REMAINS COMPLICATED INTO THIS EVENING GIVEN TIMING
ISSUES OF IMPULSES ALOFT AND MODEL UNCERTAINTY WITH THESE
FEATURES. CURRENT SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE REGION THAT CAUSED THE
EARLIER ARRIVAL OF SHRA/TSRA EARLY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE BANDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE WEST BUT ALSO A QUITE
EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUD COVER WITHIN THE APPARENT LEFTOVER COOL
POOL. NEXT UPSTREAM VORT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT LOOKS TO BE THE
MAIN PLAYER FOR STRONGER STORMS LATER ON WILL WORK AROUND THE
UPSTREAM UPPER TROF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT EARLY TONIGHT. FORECAST SHEAR AND HELICITY
QUITE LARGE AS WELL AS LAPSES BUT ALL DEPENDENT UPON INSTABILITY
WHICH WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE FOR ORGANIZED COVERAGE LATER ON.
LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHIFT THE BETTER LIFT TO LATER IN
THE DAY AND MORESO THIS EVENING AS WILL LIKELY TAKE LONGER TO GET
AT LEAST DECENT HEATING AND CAPES REACHING 1-2K J/KG. THUS MAY
HAVE A SITUATION WHERE INITIALLY WILL SEE MORE ELEVATED CONVECTION
ESPCLY NORTH/CENTRAL SECTIONS...WITH MORE SURFACE BASED STORMS
TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE FAR SW PER BETTER THETA-E AND HEATING
UNDER THE INCREASING SW JET. OTRW COMBO OF WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
EARLY CLOUDS/SHRA LIKELY TO CAUSE LESS EARLY ON...SO LOWERED POPS
SOUTHERN/EAST TO INIT...THEN INCREASED WEST FOR LEAST MORE SHRA
EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT MCS BEFORE THINGS PERHAPS COME
TOGETHER FOR DEEPER CONVECTION ESPCLY WEST- NORTH LATE IN THE DAY.
CONSIDERED A FLOOD WATCH OVER THE FAR WEST/NW WHERE 12Z GUIDANCE
SHOWING IN EXCESS OF AN INCH OF RAIN BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY AND
LIGHT AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW.

TEMPS REMAIN QUITE TRICKY AS SEEING LITTLE RISE ATTM AND WITH
LATEST LAV MO COOLER...EXPECT MORE LATE DAY HIGHS SO LOWERED A
CAT OR SO MOST SPOTS WHICH MAY NOT BE COOL ENOUGH OVER THE NW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 500 AM EDT SUNDAY...

SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES
OVERHEAD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AROUND A HALF INCH
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...WITH AMOUNTS TAPERING DOWN TO A
FEW HUNDREDTHS FURTHER EAST. IN ADDITION TO THE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY
AFFECTING OUR AREA...ALSO KEEPING AN EYE ON TWO OTHER AREAS OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ONE ENTERING WESTERN KENTUCKY AND ANOTHER
OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS.

RAPID UPDATE FORECAST MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY WILL SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST...
PUSHING INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS LATE MORNING TO AROUND
NOON. WHILE THE DISTURBANCE TRIGGERING THESE STORMS MAY REMAIN
STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...
WONDERING IF THE CLOUD COVER IT PRODUCES WILL ALSO LIMIT
INSTABILITY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460 DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
THE SECOND...MORE POTENT DISTURBANCE PUSHES EAST ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER.

THE SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL BRING WITH IT AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
MID LEVEL WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 50KT TO 60KT. WITH CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED TO BE MORE DIMINISHED HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 460...EXPECT GREATER INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA. MODELS ARE
IN AGREEMENT ON BRINGING THE SECOND LINE OF STORMS INTO SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA DURING THE 6PM TO 8PM TIME FRAME...WITH CONVECTION
QUICKLY SPREADING EAST THEREAFTER. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS WILL BE POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS AS THE DOWNDRAFTS PULL
THE STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS TO THE SURFACE. HAIL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE STRONGER CELLS...AS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN DUE TO THE UNUSUALLY HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM. DUE TO THE STRONG SHEAR PRESENTED BY THIS SYSTEM...
CANNOT EVEN RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO...ALTHOUGH BELIEVE THE
THREAT IS HIGHER WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS...OUTSIDE OUR FORECAST
AREA.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH DURING LATE EVENING
AS THE LINE PASSES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND BEGINS TO MOVE
DOWNSLOPE...ALTHOUGH SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN
THROUGH MIDNIGHT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT
WESTERLY EARLY MONDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION...LEAVING ONLY UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS.

AS MENTIONED BEFORE...CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS ARE ADDING TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF MANY ASPECTS OF THE FORECAST...INCLUDING AFTERNOON
HIGHS. HAVE UNDERCUT MAV/MET GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES...OPTING
FOR THE COOLER MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...

BY 12Z (8 AM EDT) MONDAY...THE DYNAMIC UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
HAVE LIFTED INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S. LEAVING A DEEP LOW LEVEL
NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE. FAIR PRESSURE RISES AND 40+ KT 850MB WINDS
SHOULD GENERATE GUSTY WINDS...BUT SPEEDS REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

RESIDUAL MOISTURE BELOW 4K FT SHOWN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS FORCED UP
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES...COMBINED WITH LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN
6.5 C/KM WILL HELP GENERATE UPSLOPE SHOWERS MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY
EVENING.

LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS MONDAY...HOWEVER...WITH
DOWNSLOPING WINDS...TEMPS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL STILL MANAGE
TO REACH WELL INTO THE 80S.

CHANCE FOR UPSLOPE SHOWERS DIMINISH TUESDAY AND UPSLOPE FLOW WEAKENS
AND LOW LEVEL DRYING CONTINUES.  AS THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE ALSO WEAKENS...COOLING TREND CONTINUES AND WENT SLIGHTLY
BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TUESDAY. ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL EASTERN U.S. TROF HELPS DEVELOP A WEAK SFC LOW ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS LATE TUESDAY. MODELS HINT THAT THIS MAY PRODUCE A WEAK
EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE FAR EAST AND PERHAPS BRING SOME CLOUDS TO
THIS REGION.  ACROSS THE WEST...HOWEVER...SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT TO DROP INTO THE 40S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A SURFACE HIGH THURSDAY OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN WILL SHIFT EAST
TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AT THE MID LEVELS A
PERSISTENT TROUGH IS SET UP OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN US. THURSDAY LACKS LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE SO EXPECT
THE DAY TO BE DRY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE FOR FRIDAY AND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES PIVOT ACROSS
THE REGION AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING AND TAPER OFF TO
JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING. FOCUS OF THE HIGHEST
CHANCE POPS ARE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE WILL
BE LOCATED...WITH LOWER CHANCE POPS OUT EAST.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH 850MB TEMPS
AROUND +16C. THIS WILL CORRESPOND TO SURFACE HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID
80S OUT EAST AND NEAR 80 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST ON FRIDAY THE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM N/NW TO AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION. THIS WILL WEDGE THE AREA IN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. WITH THE INCREASED LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. THIS ALONG WITH EXPECTED SCATTERED PRECIP AND 850MB
TEMPS FALLING TO +11-14C...SURFACE HIGH TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM EDT SUNDAY...

BAND OF SHALLOW CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WORK EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND SHOULD EXIT THE KLYH AREA IN THE NEXT HOUR. ONCE THIS
PASSES...MOST AREAS WILL START TO SEE CIGS GRADUALLY LIFT ALLOWING
A PERIOD OF VFR ACROSS THE REGION INTO MID AFTERNOON...AND
PERHAPS LONGER ACROSS THE EASTERN SITES.

CONFIDENCE NOW LOWER IN REGARDS TO THE DEGREE OF WIDESPREAD
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THAT WILL DEVELOP TO THE WEST AND PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING. COMBO OF RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER
AND BEST SUPPORT BEING WELL TO THE WEST SUGGESTS WILL SEE MORE
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WITH THE BETTER CONCENTRATION ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES FROM KBLF TO KLWB ONCE THEY BECOME MORE UNSTABLE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THUS WILL GOING WITH MORE MVFR IN PREVAILING
SHRA/TSRA AT THESE SPOTS...AND VICINITY MENTION WITH EMBEDDED
TEMPO GROUPS FOR STRONGER STORMS ELSW INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

A COLD FRONT PASSES LATER TONIGHT...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS FROM
THE BLUE RIDGE EAST AND LINGERING MVFR WITH UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE
FAR WEST WHERE A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO LINGER. WINDS TURN GUSTY
FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY WITH GUSTS PERHAPS REACHING 25-30 KTS AT TIMES LATE.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THREAT OF SUB VFR THROUGH MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS
SE WEST VA PER NW FLOW...BUT LESS ELSEWHERE GIVEN DOWNSLOPE.
PERIODIC SHOWERS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG THE NW SLOPES ESPCLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT GIVEN ISOLATED NATURE WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION
FOR NOW.

DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FOR TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WILL BRING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT LATE NIGHT FOG KBCB/KLWB ALTHOUGH
THE LOW LEVELS MAY STAY DRY ENOUGH FOR LESS FOG COVERAGE.

VARIABLE CIGS EXPECTED UNDER ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW THROUGHOUT THE
REST OF THE WEEK. A FEW -SHRA NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION
ACROSS EASTERN WV...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. TYPICAL FOG
POTENTIAL LESS THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK BECAUSE OF TURBULENT MIXING AND PREVAILING CYCLONIC FLOW.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE UPPER LOW RETROGRADES JUST
WEST OF THE REGION...INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA BUT MAINLY
SW OF THE TAF SITES INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...JH/NF
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...JH/PH




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271601
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON..THEN CROSSES THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STILL SOME UNCERTAINITIES WRT THE WX ACROSS THE AREA NEXT 6-12 HRS.
SO BASED THE FCST FOR NEXT SVRL HRS OFF OF CRNT RADAR/SFC TRENDS.
BAND OF SHWRS/TSTRMS MOVG EAST ACROSS SRN TIER VA AND NE NC CNTYS
WILL CONT TO MOVE EAST SO KEPT THE LIKELY POPS THERE. JUST SOME
SHWRS NOTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA ATTM. VSBY SAT LOOP SHOWING
PARTIAL THINNING OF THE CLOUDS ACROSS PIEDMONT AREAS. SHORT RANGE
MOS NUMBERS SHOW TMPS QUICKLY RISING INTO THE 80S IF ADDNTL HEATING
CAN OCCUR. SO LEFT HIGH TMPS ALONE FOR NOW (85-90).

WRT CONVECTION LATER TODAY...MAIN ACTION SHIFTS TO THE S/W ENERGY
OVR KY PROGGED TO DRIFT SE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVE. CRNT TRAJECTORY
TRACKS MOST OF THE CONVECTION ALONG AND SOUTH OF I64. HOWEVER..STILL
EXPECT ADDNTL CONVECTION TO DVLP OVR THE MTS THEN MERGE WITH THE
ADVANCING S/W ENERGY. SVR PTNTL STILL EXISTS IF TMPS ARE ABLE TO
RISE TO FCST LEVELS. STAY TUNED.

PVS DSCN:
MADE SOME CHANGES TO GRIDS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS SFC OBS
AND MODEL GUIDANCE. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO ACCOUNT FOR LINE OF
CONVECTION MARCHING EAST ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT ATTM. HRRR SEEMS
TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON THE CRNT TRENDS...SO INCREASED POPS TO
LIKELY ACROSS SRN MOST COUNTIES NEXT SVRL HRS AS THIS LINE MOVES
EAST.. VSBY SAT LOOP SHOWING SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE AHEAD OF IT TO
KEEP THE LINE GOING.

LOWERED TMPS BY A CATEGORY MOST PLACES (CLOSER TO LAV GUID) GIVEN
ALL THE CLOUDS AND PCPN FROM THE MORNING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. TUFF
CALL FOR SERN COUNTIES AS TMPS MAY GET TO 90 THERE...BUT THEN DROP
IN ANY CONVECTION BY ERLY AFTRN.

MAIN QUESTION FOR THIS AFTRN IS HOW MUCH HEATING WILL OCCUR BEHIND
THE FIRST DEPARTING S/W AND AHEAD OF NXT APPRCHG S/W NOW OVR KY
VLLY. LATEST DATA SUGGESTS THIS COMPLEX TAKING A MORE SOUTHERLY
ROUTE (ACROSS SRN HALF OF VA / NC THIS EVENING.

SPC CONTINUES TO HAVE FA OUTLOOKED IN SLGHT RISK WITH A RECENTLY
ISSUED PWO FOR AREAS TO OUR WEST. STAY TUNED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE STRONG COLD FRONT QUICKLY PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.
OVERNIGHT SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE FOCUSED ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AND RE-FIRE IN INTENSITY DUE TO THE ADDED LIFT. OVERALL...
PRECIP SHOULD BE CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS UNTIL THE FRONT CAN
PUSH WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING.
ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS DIMINISHED ON
MONDAY...A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
WEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH AS A COOLER
AND DRIER CANADIAN AIRMASS FILTERS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW-N.
WINDS AND SUNSHINE WILL BE KEY PLAYERS IN HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY.
CURRENT FORECAST RANGES FROM THE UPPER 80S NW TO 90-95 SE.


BNDRY PROGGED TO STALL INVOF GULF STREAM MON NIGHT AND TUE WHILE A
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH. KEPT SLGHT CHC
POPS ALONG SERN CSTL AREAS MON EVENING. LOWS IN THE 60S...XCPT L70S
SERN CSTL AREAS. DRY TUESDAY ALONG WITH LOWER HUMIDITY AS DEWPOINTS
DROP INTO THE 50S. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE L80S...U70S AT
THE BEACHES. LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S W TO MID 60S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF DIGS OVR THE MID ATLC REGION TUE NGT
INTO EARLY THU...BEFORE RETROGRADING BACK INTO THE OH AND MS VALLEYS
THU AFTN THRU SAT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OFF THE MID ATLC
CST TUE NGT THRU FRI...THEN DRIFTS BACK TWD THE CST FRI NGT THRU
SAT. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR TUE NGT THRU FRI...THEN HAVE ADDED
SLGT CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT AND SAT. A MORE COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL
DOMINATE THE AREA TUE NGT THRU THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
HUMIDITY RETURNS FOR FRI AND SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LWR TO MID 80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S
TO MID 60S WED AND THU MORNGS...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI
MORNG...AND RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AREA OF CONVECTION SLIDING SE FM SW PA/NRN WV/NW VA TO CONT
TRACKING ESE THROUGH EARLY MRNG HRS W/ SOME WEAKENING AS IT DOES
SO. PTNTL FOR PCPN AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...ESP KRIC-KSBY. A
SECOND AREA OF CONVECTION FCST TO EXIT THE MTNS MID/LT MRNG...AND
TRACK OVR THE RGN MIDDAY INTO THIS EVE (ALSO W/ PSBL BRIEF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS/HVY RA). OTRW...SSW WINDS GUSTING TO 15 KT AND SCT-BKN
CLDS XPCD TDA AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W.
THE FRONT IS XPCD TO CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY W/ LO PROB FOR
PCPN AND GUSTY MNLY W WNDS (TO 20 KT). MNLY VFR CONDS MON NGT INTO
WED.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES XPCD THRU MON. A CDFNT PUSHES APPROACHES THE MID ATLC
REGION TDA...THEN MOVE ACRS THE WTRS AND OFF THE CST LATE TNGT
THROUGH MON NGT. SSW WINDS 10 TO 20 KT THROUGH TNGT. WINDS WILL TURN
TO THE W DURING MON...THEN NW AND N MON NGT INTO TUE MRNG.
WAVES/SEAS LIKELY TO RISE A FOOT OR TWO IN RESPONSE TO INCRSD SPDS
AND DIRECTION CHG TO NNW (MON NGT INTO TUE). GENERALLY NNE WINDS
15 KT OR LESS EXPECTED FOR TUE THRU THU.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB






000
FXUS61 KRNK 271446
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1046 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL
BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. THESE FEATURES
MAY TRIGGER STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION BY EARLY MONDAY...RESULTING IN COOLER WEATHER INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1020 AM EDT SUNDAY...

FORECAST REMAINS COMPLICATED INTO THIS EVENING GIVEN TIMING
ISSUES OF IMPULSES ALOFT AND MODEL UNCERTAINTY WITH THESE
FEATURES. CURRENT SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE REGION THAT CAUSED THE
EARLIER ARRIVAL OF SHRA/TSRA EARLY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE BANDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE WEST BUT ALSO A QUITE
EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUD COVER WITHIN THE APPARENT LEFTOVER COOL
POOL. NEXT UPSTREAM VORT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT LOOKS TO BE THE
MAIN PLAYER FOR STRONGER STORMS LATER ON WILL WORK AROUND THE
UPSTREAM UPPER TROF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT EARLY TONIGHT. FORECAST SHEAR AND HELICITY
QUITE LARGE AS WELL AS LAPSES BUT ALL DEPENDENT UPON INSTABILITY
WHICH WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE FOR ORGANIZED COVERAGE LATER ON.
LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHIFT THE BETTER LIFT TO LATER IN
THE DAY AND MORESO THIS EVENING AS WILL LIKELY TAKE LONGER TO GET
AT LEAST DECENT HEATING AND CAPES REACHING 1-2K J/KG. THUS MAY
HAVE A SITUATION WHERE INITIALLY WILL SEE MORE ELEVATED CONVECTION
ESPCLY NORTH/CENTRAL SECTIONS...WITH MORE SURFACE BASED STORMS
TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE FAR SW PER BETTER THETA-E AND HEATING
UNDER THE INCREASING SW JET. OTRW COMBO OF WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
EARLY CLOUDS/SHRA LIKELY TO CAUSE LESS EARLY ON...SO LOWERED POPS
SOUTHERN/EAST TO INIT...THEN INCREASED WEST FOR LEAST MORE SHRA
EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT MCS BEFORE THINGS PERHAPS COME
TOGETHER FOR DEEPER CONVECTION ESPCLY WEST- NORTH LATE IN THE DAY.
CONSIDERED A FLOOD WATCH OVER THE FAR WEST/NW WHERE 12Z GUIDANCE
SHOWING IN EXCESS OF AN INCH OF RAIN BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY AND
LIGHT AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW.

TEMPS REMAIN QUITE TRICKY AS SEEING LITTLE RISE ATTM AND WITH
LATEST LAV MO COOLER...EXPECT MORE LATE DAY HIGHS SO LOWERED A
CAT OR SO MOST SPOTS WHICH MAY NOT BE COOL ENOUGH OVER THE NW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 500 AM EDT SUNDAY...

SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES
OVERHEAD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AROUND A HALF INCH
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...WITH AMOUNTS TAPERING DOWN TO A
FEW HUNDREDTHS FURTHER EAST. IN ADDITION TO THE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY
AFFECTING OUR AREA...ALSO KEEPING AN EYE ON TWO OTHER AREAS OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ONE ENTERING WESTERN KENTUCKY AND ANOTHER
OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS.

RAPID UPDATE FORECAST MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY WILL SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST...
PUSHING INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS LATE MORNING TO AROUND
NOON. WHILE THE DISTURBANCE TRIGGERING THESE STORMS MAY REMAIN
STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...
WONDERING IF THE CLOUD COVER IT PRODUCES WILL ALSO LIMIT
INSTABILITY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460 DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
THE SECOND...MORE POTENT DISTURBANCE PUSHES EAST ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER.

THE SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL BRING WITH IT AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
MID LEVEL WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 50KT TO 60KT. WITH CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED TO BE MORE DIMINISHED HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 460...EXPECT GREATER INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA. MODELS ARE
IN AGREEMENT ON BRINGING THE SECOND LINE OF STORMS INTO SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA DURING THE 6PM TO 8PM TIME FRAME...WITH CONVECTION
QUICKLY SPREADING EAST THEREAFTER. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS WILL BE POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS AS THE DOWNDRAFTS PULL
THE STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS TO THE SURFACE. HAIL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE STRONGER CELLS...AS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN DUE TO THE UNUSUALLY HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM. DUE TO THE STRONG SHEAR PRESENTED BY THIS SYSTEM...
CANNOT EVEN RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO...ALTHOUGH BELIEVE THE
THREAT IS HIGHER WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS...OUTSIDE OUR FORECAST
AREA.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH DURING LATE EVENING
AS THE LINE PASSES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND BEGINS TO MOVE
DOWNSLOPE...ALTHOUGH SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN
THROUGH MIDNIGHT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT
WESTERLY EARLY MONDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION...LEAVING ONLY UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS.

AS MENTIONED BEFORE...CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS ARE ADDING TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF MANY ASPECTS OF THE FORECAST...INCLUDING AFTERNOON
HIGHS. HAVE UNDERCUT MAV/MET GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES...OPTING
FOR THE COOLER MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...

BY 12Z (8 AM EDT) MONDAY...THE DYNAMIC UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
HAVE LIFTED INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S. LEAVING A DEEP LOW LEVEL
NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE. FAIR PRESSURE RISES AND 40+ KT 850MB WINDS
SHOULD GENERATE GUSTY WINDS...BUT SPEEDS REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

RESIDUAL MOISTURE BELOW 4K FT SHOWN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS FORCED UP
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES...COMBINED WITH LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN
6.5 C/KM WILL HELP GENERATE UPSLOPE SHOWERS MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY
EVENING.

LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS MONDAY...HOWEVER...WITH
DOWNSLOPING WINDS...TEMPS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL STILL MANAGE
TO REACH WELL INTO THE 80S.

CHANCE FOR UPSLOPE SHOWERS DIMINISH TUESDAY AND UPSLOPE FLOW WEAKENS
AND LOW LEVEL DRYING CONTINUES.  AS THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE ALSO WEAKENS...COOLING TREND CONTINUES AND WENT SLIGHTLY
BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TUESDAY. ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL EASTERN U.S. TROF HELPS DEVELOP A WEAK SFC LOW ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS LATE TUESDAY. MODELS HINT THAT THIS MAY PRODUCE A WEAK
EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE FAR EAST AND PERHAPS BRING SOME CLOUDS TO
THIS REGION.  ACROSS THE WEST...HOWEVER...SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT TO DROP INTO THE 40S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A COLD FRONT WELL OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.
A 1020MB SURFACE HIGH OVER SE MO SHIFTS TO THE NE STATES THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. AT THE MID LEVELS...A RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
WESTERN US...WHILE A TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN US. VERY
LITTLE MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE ONLY
PLACE THAT MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEAK OUT A SHOWER OR TWO IS ACROSS THE
FAR SW...OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY. MOISTURE AND
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THUS
INCREASING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GREATEST CHANCE
POPS ARE ACROSS THE WEST WHERE THE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED.

850MB TEMPS OF +13-15C AND A PERSISTENT WEDGING EASTERLY WIND WILL
ALLOW SURFACE HIGH TEMPS TO BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THURSDAY
WILL BE THE COOLEST MORNING OF THE PERIOD WITH UPPER 40S POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOW TEMPS WILL
MODERATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE DEWPTS INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT SUNDAY...

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CREATING SPOTTY AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS THIS MORNING. THIS FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL
DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING. WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH IN THE NORTHWEST
NC MOUNTAINS AND FAR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.

WHILE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING...A
COMPLEX OF STORMS IN KENTUCKY WILL SPREAD MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER
THE REGION...AS WELL AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY
IN NW NORTH CAROLINA.

THE GREATEST THREAT TO AVIATORS TODAY WILL BE YET ANOTHER COMPLEX
OF STORMS THAT WILL ENTER OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.THERE STILL IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER REMAINS FROM
THE MORNING CONVECTION.

REGARDLESS...WITH AN IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELD ALOFT...CONFIDENCE IS
GROWING THAT THIS LARGE COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL IMPACT OUR AREA AND
MANY TAF SITES...BUT MOST LIKELY KBLF...KLWB...KBCB AND KROA.
AS A RESULT...INTRODUCED THUNDER WITH PROB30 OF WIND GUSTS TO
30-40KTS. IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED WITH THIS
COMPLEX.

A COLD FRONT PASSES TONIGHT...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS...BUT GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THREAT OF SUB VFR THROUGH MONDAY EXPECTED ACROSS SE WEST VA PER
NW FLOW...BUT LESS ELSEWHERE GIVEN DOWNSLOPE.

DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FOR TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WILL BRING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT LATE NIGHT FOG KBCB/KLWB BUT LOW
LVLS MAY STAY DRY ENOUGH FOR LESS FOG COVERAGE.

VARIABLE CIGS EXPECTED UNDER ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK. A FEW -SHRA NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS
EASTERN WV...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. TYPICAL FOG
POTENTIAL LESS THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK BECAUSE OF TURBULENT MIXING AND PREVAILING CYCLONIC FLOW.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE UPPER LOW RETROGRADES JUST
WEST OF THE REGION...INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA...
ESPECIALLY IN THE FRI-SUN TIME FRAME.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...JH/NF
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...NF/PH/RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 271446
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1046 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL
BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. THESE FEATURES
MAY TRIGGER STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION BY EARLY MONDAY...RESULTING IN COOLER WEATHER INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1020 AM EDT SUNDAY...

FORECAST REMAINS COMPLICATED INTO THIS EVENING GIVEN TIMING
ISSUES OF IMPULSES ALOFT AND MODEL UNCERTAINTY WITH THESE
FEATURES. CURRENT SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE REGION THAT CAUSED THE
EARLIER ARRIVAL OF SHRA/TSRA EARLY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE BANDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE WEST BUT ALSO A QUITE
EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUD COVER WITHIN THE APPARENT LEFTOVER COOL
POOL. NEXT UPSTREAM VORT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT LOOKS TO BE THE
MAIN PLAYER FOR STRONGER STORMS LATER ON WILL WORK AROUND THE
UPSTREAM UPPER TROF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT EARLY TONIGHT. FORECAST SHEAR AND HELICITY
QUITE LARGE AS WELL AS LAPSES BUT ALL DEPENDENT UPON INSTABILITY
WHICH WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE FOR ORGANIZED COVERAGE LATER ON.
LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHIFT THE BETTER LIFT TO LATER IN
THE DAY AND MORESO THIS EVENING AS WILL LIKELY TAKE LONGER TO GET
AT LEAST DECENT HEATING AND CAPES REACHING 1-2K J/KG. THUS MAY
HAVE A SITUATION WHERE INITIALLY WILL SEE MORE ELEVATED CONVECTION
ESPCLY NORTH/CENTRAL SECTIONS...WITH MORE SURFACE BASED STORMS
TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE FAR SW PER BETTER THETA-E AND HEATING
UNDER THE INCREASING SW JET. OTRW COMBO OF WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
EARLY CLOUDS/SHRA LIKELY TO CAUSE LESS EARLY ON...SO LOWERED POPS
SOUTHERN/EAST TO INIT...THEN INCREASED WEST FOR LEAST MORE SHRA
EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT MCS BEFORE THINGS PERHAPS COME
TOGETHER FOR DEEPER CONVECTION ESPCLY WEST- NORTH LATE IN THE DAY.
CONSIDERED A FLOOD WATCH OVER THE FAR WEST/NW WHERE 12Z GUIDANCE
SHOWING IN EXCESS OF AN INCH OF RAIN BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY AND
LIGHT AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW.

TEMPS REMAIN QUITE TRICKY AS SEEING LITTLE RISE ATTM AND WITH
LATEST LAV MO COOLER...EXPECT MORE LATE DAY HIGHS SO LOWERED A
CAT OR SO MOST SPOTS WHICH MAY NOT BE COOL ENOUGH OVER THE NW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 500 AM EDT SUNDAY...

SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES
OVERHEAD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AROUND A HALF INCH
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...WITH AMOUNTS TAPERING DOWN TO A
FEW HUNDREDTHS FURTHER EAST. IN ADDITION TO THE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY
AFFECTING OUR AREA...ALSO KEEPING AN EYE ON TWO OTHER AREAS OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ONE ENTERING WESTERN KENTUCKY AND ANOTHER
OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS.

RAPID UPDATE FORECAST MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY WILL SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST...
PUSHING INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS LATE MORNING TO AROUND
NOON. WHILE THE DISTURBANCE TRIGGERING THESE STORMS MAY REMAIN
STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...
WONDERING IF THE CLOUD COVER IT PRODUCES WILL ALSO LIMIT
INSTABILITY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460 DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
THE SECOND...MORE POTENT DISTURBANCE PUSHES EAST ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER.

THE SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL BRING WITH IT AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
MID LEVEL WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 50KT TO 60KT. WITH CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED TO BE MORE DIMINISHED HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 460...EXPECT GREATER INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA. MODELS ARE
IN AGREEMENT ON BRINGING THE SECOND LINE OF STORMS INTO SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA DURING THE 6PM TO 8PM TIME FRAME...WITH CONVECTION
QUICKLY SPREADING EAST THEREAFTER. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS WILL BE POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS AS THE DOWNDRAFTS PULL
THE STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS TO THE SURFACE. HAIL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE STRONGER CELLS...AS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN DUE TO THE UNUSUALLY HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM. DUE TO THE STRONG SHEAR PRESENTED BY THIS SYSTEM...
CANNOT EVEN RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO...ALTHOUGH BELIEVE THE
THREAT IS HIGHER WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS...OUTSIDE OUR FORECAST
AREA.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH DURING LATE EVENING
AS THE LINE PASSES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND BEGINS TO MOVE
DOWNSLOPE...ALTHOUGH SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN
THROUGH MIDNIGHT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT
WESTERLY EARLY MONDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION...LEAVING ONLY UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS.

AS MENTIONED BEFORE...CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS ARE ADDING TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF MANY ASPECTS OF THE FORECAST...INCLUDING AFTERNOON
HIGHS. HAVE UNDERCUT MAV/MET GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES...OPTING
FOR THE COOLER MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...

BY 12Z (8 AM EDT) MONDAY...THE DYNAMIC UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
HAVE LIFTED INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S. LEAVING A DEEP LOW LEVEL
NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE. FAIR PRESSURE RISES AND 40+ KT 850MB WINDS
SHOULD GENERATE GUSTY WINDS...BUT SPEEDS REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

RESIDUAL MOISTURE BELOW 4K FT SHOWN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS FORCED UP
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES...COMBINED WITH LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN
6.5 C/KM WILL HELP GENERATE UPSLOPE SHOWERS MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY
EVENING.

LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS MONDAY...HOWEVER...WITH
DOWNSLOPING WINDS...TEMPS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL STILL MANAGE
TO REACH WELL INTO THE 80S.

CHANCE FOR UPSLOPE SHOWERS DIMINISH TUESDAY AND UPSLOPE FLOW WEAKENS
AND LOW LEVEL DRYING CONTINUES.  AS THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE ALSO WEAKENS...COOLING TREND CONTINUES AND WENT SLIGHTLY
BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TUESDAY. ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL EASTERN U.S. TROF HELPS DEVELOP A WEAK SFC LOW ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS LATE TUESDAY. MODELS HINT THAT THIS MAY PRODUCE A WEAK
EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE FAR EAST AND PERHAPS BRING SOME CLOUDS TO
THIS REGION.  ACROSS THE WEST...HOWEVER...SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT TO DROP INTO THE 40S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A COLD FRONT WELL OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.
A 1020MB SURFACE HIGH OVER SE MO SHIFTS TO THE NE STATES THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. AT THE MID LEVELS...A RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
WESTERN US...WHILE A TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN US. VERY
LITTLE MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE ONLY
PLACE THAT MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEAK OUT A SHOWER OR TWO IS ACROSS THE
FAR SW...OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY. MOISTURE AND
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THUS
INCREASING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GREATEST CHANCE
POPS ARE ACROSS THE WEST WHERE THE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED.

850MB TEMPS OF +13-15C AND A PERSISTENT WEDGING EASTERLY WIND WILL
ALLOW SURFACE HIGH TEMPS TO BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THURSDAY
WILL BE THE COOLEST MORNING OF THE PERIOD WITH UPPER 40S POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOW TEMPS WILL
MODERATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE DEWPTS INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT SUNDAY...

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CREATING SPOTTY AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS THIS MORNING. THIS FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL
DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING. WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH IN THE NORTHWEST
NC MOUNTAINS AND FAR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.

WHILE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING...A
COMPLEX OF STORMS IN KENTUCKY WILL SPREAD MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER
THE REGION...AS WELL AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY
IN NW NORTH CAROLINA.

THE GREATEST THREAT TO AVIATORS TODAY WILL BE YET ANOTHER COMPLEX
OF STORMS THAT WILL ENTER OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.THERE STILL IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER REMAINS FROM
THE MORNING CONVECTION.

REGARDLESS...WITH AN IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELD ALOFT...CONFIDENCE IS
GROWING THAT THIS LARGE COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL IMPACT OUR AREA AND
MANY TAF SITES...BUT MOST LIKELY KBLF...KLWB...KBCB AND KROA.
AS A RESULT...INTRODUCED THUNDER WITH PROB30 OF WIND GUSTS TO
30-40KTS. IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED WITH THIS
COMPLEX.

A COLD FRONT PASSES TONIGHT...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS...BUT GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THREAT OF SUB VFR THROUGH MONDAY EXPECTED ACROSS SE WEST VA PER
NW FLOW...BUT LESS ELSEWHERE GIVEN DOWNSLOPE.

DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FOR TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WILL BRING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT LATE NIGHT FOG KBCB/KLWB BUT LOW
LVLS MAY STAY DRY ENOUGH FOR LESS FOG COVERAGE.

VARIABLE CIGS EXPECTED UNDER ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK. A FEW -SHRA NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS
EASTERN WV...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. TYPICAL FOG
POTENTIAL LESS THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK BECAUSE OF TURBULENT MIXING AND PREVAILING CYCLONIC FLOW.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE UPPER LOW RETROGRADES JUST
WEST OF THE REGION...INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA...
ESPECIALLY IN THE FRI-SUN TIME FRAME.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...JH/NF
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...NF/PH/RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 271446
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1046 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL
BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. THESE FEATURES
MAY TRIGGER STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION BY EARLY MONDAY...RESULTING IN COOLER WEATHER INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1020 AM EDT SUNDAY...

FORECAST REMAINS COMPLICATED INTO THIS EVENING GIVEN TIMING
ISSUES OF IMPULSES ALOFT AND MODEL UNCERTAINTY WITH THESE
FEATURES. CURRENT SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE REGION THAT CAUSED THE
EARLIER ARRIVAL OF SHRA/TSRA EARLY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE BANDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE WEST BUT ALSO A QUITE
EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUD COVER WITHIN THE APPARENT LEFTOVER COOL
POOL. NEXT UPSTREAM VORT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT LOOKS TO BE THE
MAIN PLAYER FOR STRONGER STORMS LATER ON WILL WORK AROUND THE
UPSTREAM UPPER TROF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT EARLY TONIGHT. FORECAST SHEAR AND HELICITY
QUITE LARGE AS WELL AS LAPSES BUT ALL DEPENDENT UPON INSTABILITY
WHICH WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE FOR ORGANIZED COVERAGE LATER ON.
LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHIFT THE BETTER LIFT TO LATER IN
THE DAY AND MORESO THIS EVENING AS WILL LIKELY TAKE LONGER TO GET
AT LEAST DECENT HEATING AND CAPES REACHING 1-2K J/KG. THUS MAY
HAVE A SITUATION WHERE INITIALLY WILL SEE MORE ELEVATED CONVECTION
ESPCLY NORTH/CENTRAL SECTIONS...WITH MORE SURFACE BASED STORMS
TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE FAR SW PER BETTER THETA-E AND HEATING
UNDER THE INCREASING SW JET. OTRW COMBO OF WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
EARLY CLOUDS/SHRA LIKELY TO CAUSE LESS EARLY ON...SO LOWERED POPS
SOUTHERN/EAST TO INIT...THEN INCREASED WEST FOR LEAST MORE SHRA
EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT MCS BEFORE THINGS PERHAPS COME
TOGETHER FOR DEEPER CONVECTION ESPCLY WEST- NORTH LATE IN THE DAY.
CONSIDERED A FLOOD WATCH OVER THE FAR WEST/NW WHERE 12Z GUIDANCE
SHOWING IN EXCESS OF AN INCH OF RAIN BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY AND
LIGHT AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW.

TEMPS REMAIN QUITE TRICKY AS SEEING LITTLE RISE ATTM AND WITH
LATEST LAV MO COOLER...EXPECT MORE LATE DAY HIGHS SO LOWERED A
CAT OR SO MOST SPOTS WHICH MAY NOT BE COOL ENOUGH OVER THE NW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 500 AM EDT SUNDAY...

SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES
OVERHEAD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AROUND A HALF INCH
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...WITH AMOUNTS TAPERING DOWN TO A
FEW HUNDREDTHS FURTHER EAST. IN ADDITION TO THE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY
AFFECTING OUR AREA...ALSO KEEPING AN EYE ON TWO OTHER AREAS OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ONE ENTERING WESTERN KENTUCKY AND ANOTHER
OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS.

RAPID UPDATE FORECAST MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY WILL SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST...
PUSHING INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS LATE MORNING TO AROUND
NOON. WHILE THE DISTURBANCE TRIGGERING THESE STORMS MAY REMAIN
STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...
WONDERING IF THE CLOUD COVER IT PRODUCES WILL ALSO LIMIT
INSTABILITY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460 DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
THE SECOND...MORE POTENT DISTURBANCE PUSHES EAST ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER.

THE SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL BRING WITH IT AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
MID LEVEL WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 50KT TO 60KT. WITH CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED TO BE MORE DIMINISHED HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 460...EXPECT GREATER INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA. MODELS ARE
IN AGREEMENT ON BRINGING THE SECOND LINE OF STORMS INTO SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA DURING THE 6PM TO 8PM TIME FRAME...WITH CONVECTION
QUICKLY SPREADING EAST THEREAFTER. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS WILL BE POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS AS THE DOWNDRAFTS PULL
THE STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS TO THE SURFACE. HAIL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE STRONGER CELLS...AS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN DUE TO THE UNUSUALLY HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM. DUE TO THE STRONG SHEAR PRESENTED BY THIS SYSTEM...
CANNOT EVEN RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO...ALTHOUGH BELIEVE THE
THREAT IS HIGHER WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS...OUTSIDE OUR FORECAST
AREA.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH DURING LATE EVENING
AS THE LINE PASSES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND BEGINS TO MOVE
DOWNSLOPE...ALTHOUGH SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN
THROUGH MIDNIGHT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT
WESTERLY EARLY MONDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION...LEAVING ONLY UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS.

AS MENTIONED BEFORE...CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS ARE ADDING TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF MANY ASPECTS OF THE FORECAST...INCLUDING AFTERNOON
HIGHS. HAVE UNDERCUT MAV/MET GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES...OPTING
FOR THE COOLER MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...

BY 12Z (8 AM EDT) MONDAY...THE DYNAMIC UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
HAVE LIFTED INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S. LEAVING A DEEP LOW LEVEL
NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE. FAIR PRESSURE RISES AND 40+ KT 850MB WINDS
SHOULD GENERATE GUSTY WINDS...BUT SPEEDS REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

RESIDUAL MOISTURE BELOW 4K FT SHOWN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS FORCED UP
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES...COMBINED WITH LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN
6.5 C/KM WILL HELP GENERATE UPSLOPE SHOWERS MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY
EVENING.

LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS MONDAY...HOWEVER...WITH
DOWNSLOPING WINDS...TEMPS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL STILL MANAGE
TO REACH WELL INTO THE 80S.

CHANCE FOR UPSLOPE SHOWERS DIMINISH TUESDAY AND UPSLOPE FLOW WEAKENS
AND LOW LEVEL DRYING CONTINUES.  AS THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE ALSO WEAKENS...COOLING TREND CONTINUES AND WENT SLIGHTLY
BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TUESDAY. ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL EASTERN U.S. TROF HELPS DEVELOP A WEAK SFC LOW ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS LATE TUESDAY. MODELS HINT THAT THIS MAY PRODUCE A WEAK
EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE FAR EAST AND PERHAPS BRING SOME CLOUDS TO
THIS REGION.  ACROSS THE WEST...HOWEVER...SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT TO DROP INTO THE 40S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A COLD FRONT WELL OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.
A 1020MB SURFACE HIGH OVER SE MO SHIFTS TO THE NE STATES THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. AT THE MID LEVELS...A RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
WESTERN US...WHILE A TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN US. VERY
LITTLE MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE ONLY
PLACE THAT MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEAK OUT A SHOWER OR TWO IS ACROSS THE
FAR SW...OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY. MOISTURE AND
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THUS
INCREASING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GREATEST CHANCE
POPS ARE ACROSS THE WEST WHERE THE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED.

850MB TEMPS OF +13-15C AND A PERSISTENT WEDGING EASTERLY WIND WILL
ALLOW SURFACE HIGH TEMPS TO BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THURSDAY
WILL BE THE COOLEST MORNING OF THE PERIOD WITH UPPER 40S POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOW TEMPS WILL
MODERATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE DEWPTS INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT SUNDAY...

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CREATING SPOTTY AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS THIS MORNING. THIS FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL
DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING. WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH IN THE NORTHWEST
NC MOUNTAINS AND FAR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.

WHILE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING...A
COMPLEX OF STORMS IN KENTUCKY WILL SPREAD MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER
THE REGION...AS WELL AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY
IN NW NORTH CAROLINA.

THE GREATEST THREAT TO AVIATORS TODAY WILL BE YET ANOTHER COMPLEX
OF STORMS THAT WILL ENTER OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.THERE STILL IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER REMAINS FROM
THE MORNING CONVECTION.

REGARDLESS...WITH AN IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELD ALOFT...CONFIDENCE IS
GROWING THAT THIS LARGE COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL IMPACT OUR AREA AND
MANY TAF SITES...BUT MOST LIKELY KBLF...KLWB...KBCB AND KROA.
AS A RESULT...INTRODUCED THUNDER WITH PROB30 OF WIND GUSTS TO
30-40KTS. IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED WITH THIS
COMPLEX.

A COLD FRONT PASSES TONIGHT...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS...BUT GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THREAT OF SUB VFR THROUGH MONDAY EXPECTED ACROSS SE WEST VA PER
NW FLOW...BUT LESS ELSEWHERE GIVEN DOWNSLOPE.

DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FOR TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WILL BRING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT LATE NIGHT FOG KBCB/KLWB BUT LOW
LVLS MAY STAY DRY ENOUGH FOR LESS FOG COVERAGE.

VARIABLE CIGS EXPECTED UNDER ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK. A FEW -SHRA NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS
EASTERN WV...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. TYPICAL FOG
POTENTIAL LESS THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK BECAUSE OF TURBULENT MIXING AND PREVAILING CYCLONIC FLOW.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE UPPER LOW RETROGRADES JUST
WEST OF THE REGION...INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA...
ESPECIALLY IN THE FRI-SUN TIME FRAME.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...JH/NF
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...NF/PH/RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 271446
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1046 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL
BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. THESE FEATURES
MAY TRIGGER STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION BY EARLY MONDAY...RESULTING IN COOLER WEATHER INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1020 AM EDT SUNDAY...

FORECAST REMAINS COMPLICATED INTO THIS EVENING GIVEN TIMING
ISSUES OF IMPULSES ALOFT AND MODEL UNCERTAINTY WITH THESE
FEATURES. CURRENT SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE REGION THAT CAUSED THE
EARLIER ARRIVAL OF SHRA/TSRA EARLY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE BANDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE WEST BUT ALSO A QUITE
EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUD COVER WITHIN THE APPARENT LEFTOVER COOL
POOL. NEXT UPSTREAM VORT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT LOOKS TO BE THE
MAIN PLAYER FOR STRONGER STORMS LATER ON WILL WORK AROUND THE
UPSTREAM UPPER TROF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT EARLY TONIGHT. FORECAST SHEAR AND HELICITY
QUITE LARGE AS WELL AS LAPSES BUT ALL DEPENDENT UPON INSTABILITY
WHICH WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE FOR ORGANIZED COVERAGE LATER ON.
LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHIFT THE BETTER LIFT TO LATER IN
THE DAY AND MORESO THIS EVENING AS WILL LIKELY TAKE LONGER TO GET
AT LEAST DECENT HEATING AND CAPES REACHING 1-2K J/KG. THUS MAY
HAVE A SITUATION WHERE INITIALLY WILL SEE MORE ELEVATED CONVECTION
ESPCLY NORTH/CENTRAL SECTIONS...WITH MORE SURFACE BASED STORMS
TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE FAR SW PER BETTER THETA-E AND HEATING
UNDER THE INCREASING SW JET. OTRW COMBO OF WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
EARLY CLOUDS/SHRA LIKELY TO CAUSE LESS EARLY ON...SO LOWERED POPS
SOUTHERN/EAST TO INIT...THEN INCREASED WEST FOR LEAST MORE SHRA
EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT MCS BEFORE THINGS PERHAPS COME
TOGETHER FOR DEEPER CONVECTION ESPCLY WEST- NORTH LATE IN THE DAY.
CONSIDERED A FLOOD WATCH OVER THE FAR WEST/NW WHERE 12Z GUIDANCE
SHOWING IN EXCESS OF AN INCH OF RAIN BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY AND
LIGHT AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW.

TEMPS REMAIN QUITE TRICKY AS SEEING LITTLE RISE ATTM AND WITH
LATEST LAV MO COOLER...EXPECT MORE LATE DAY HIGHS SO LOWERED A
CAT OR SO MOST SPOTS WHICH MAY NOT BE COOL ENOUGH OVER THE NW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 500 AM EDT SUNDAY...

SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES
OVERHEAD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AROUND A HALF INCH
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...WITH AMOUNTS TAPERING DOWN TO A
FEW HUNDREDTHS FURTHER EAST. IN ADDITION TO THE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY
AFFECTING OUR AREA...ALSO KEEPING AN EYE ON TWO OTHER AREAS OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ONE ENTERING WESTERN KENTUCKY AND ANOTHER
OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS.

RAPID UPDATE FORECAST MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY WILL SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST...
PUSHING INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS LATE MORNING TO AROUND
NOON. WHILE THE DISTURBANCE TRIGGERING THESE STORMS MAY REMAIN
STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...
WONDERING IF THE CLOUD COVER IT PRODUCES WILL ALSO LIMIT
INSTABILITY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460 DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
THE SECOND...MORE POTENT DISTURBANCE PUSHES EAST ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER.

THE SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL BRING WITH IT AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
MID LEVEL WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 50KT TO 60KT. WITH CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED TO BE MORE DIMINISHED HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 460...EXPECT GREATER INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA. MODELS ARE
IN AGREEMENT ON BRINGING THE SECOND LINE OF STORMS INTO SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA DURING THE 6PM TO 8PM TIME FRAME...WITH CONVECTION
QUICKLY SPREADING EAST THEREAFTER. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS WILL BE POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS AS THE DOWNDRAFTS PULL
THE STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS TO THE SURFACE. HAIL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE STRONGER CELLS...AS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN DUE TO THE UNUSUALLY HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM. DUE TO THE STRONG SHEAR PRESENTED BY THIS SYSTEM...
CANNOT EVEN RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO...ALTHOUGH BELIEVE THE
THREAT IS HIGHER WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS...OUTSIDE OUR FORECAST
AREA.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH DURING LATE EVENING
AS THE LINE PASSES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND BEGINS TO MOVE
DOWNSLOPE...ALTHOUGH SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN
THROUGH MIDNIGHT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT
WESTERLY EARLY MONDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION...LEAVING ONLY UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS.

AS MENTIONED BEFORE...CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS ARE ADDING TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF MANY ASPECTS OF THE FORECAST...INCLUDING AFTERNOON
HIGHS. HAVE UNDERCUT MAV/MET GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES...OPTING
FOR THE COOLER MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...

BY 12Z (8 AM EDT) MONDAY...THE DYNAMIC UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
HAVE LIFTED INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S. LEAVING A DEEP LOW LEVEL
NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE. FAIR PRESSURE RISES AND 40+ KT 850MB WINDS
SHOULD GENERATE GUSTY WINDS...BUT SPEEDS REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

RESIDUAL MOISTURE BELOW 4K FT SHOWN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS FORCED UP
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES...COMBINED WITH LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN
6.5 C/KM WILL HELP GENERATE UPSLOPE SHOWERS MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY
EVENING.

LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS MONDAY...HOWEVER...WITH
DOWNSLOPING WINDS...TEMPS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL STILL MANAGE
TO REACH WELL INTO THE 80S.

CHANCE FOR UPSLOPE SHOWERS DIMINISH TUESDAY AND UPSLOPE FLOW WEAKENS
AND LOW LEVEL DRYING CONTINUES.  AS THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE ALSO WEAKENS...COOLING TREND CONTINUES AND WENT SLIGHTLY
BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TUESDAY. ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL EASTERN U.S. TROF HELPS DEVELOP A WEAK SFC LOW ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS LATE TUESDAY. MODELS HINT THAT THIS MAY PRODUCE A WEAK
EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE FAR EAST AND PERHAPS BRING SOME CLOUDS TO
THIS REGION.  ACROSS THE WEST...HOWEVER...SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT TO DROP INTO THE 40S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A COLD FRONT WELL OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.
A 1020MB SURFACE HIGH OVER SE MO SHIFTS TO THE NE STATES THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. AT THE MID LEVELS...A RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
WESTERN US...WHILE A TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN US. VERY
LITTLE MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE ONLY
PLACE THAT MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEAK OUT A SHOWER OR TWO IS ACROSS THE
FAR SW...OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY. MOISTURE AND
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THUS
INCREASING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GREATEST CHANCE
POPS ARE ACROSS THE WEST WHERE THE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED.

850MB TEMPS OF +13-15C AND A PERSISTENT WEDGING EASTERLY WIND WILL
ALLOW SURFACE HIGH TEMPS TO BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THURSDAY
WILL BE THE COOLEST MORNING OF THE PERIOD WITH UPPER 40S POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOW TEMPS WILL
MODERATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE DEWPTS INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT SUNDAY...

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CREATING SPOTTY AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS THIS MORNING. THIS FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL
DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING. WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH IN THE NORTHWEST
NC MOUNTAINS AND FAR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.

WHILE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING...A
COMPLEX OF STORMS IN KENTUCKY WILL SPREAD MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER
THE REGION...AS WELL AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY
IN NW NORTH CAROLINA.

THE GREATEST THREAT TO AVIATORS TODAY WILL BE YET ANOTHER COMPLEX
OF STORMS THAT WILL ENTER OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.THERE STILL IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER REMAINS FROM
THE MORNING CONVECTION.

REGARDLESS...WITH AN IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELD ALOFT...CONFIDENCE IS
GROWING THAT THIS LARGE COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL IMPACT OUR AREA AND
MANY TAF SITES...BUT MOST LIKELY KBLF...KLWB...KBCB AND KROA.
AS A RESULT...INTRODUCED THUNDER WITH PROB30 OF WIND GUSTS TO
30-40KTS. IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED WITH THIS
COMPLEX.

A COLD FRONT PASSES TONIGHT...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS...BUT GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THREAT OF SUB VFR THROUGH MONDAY EXPECTED ACROSS SE WEST VA PER
NW FLOW...BUT LESS ELSEWHERE GIVEN DOWNSLOPE.

DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FOR TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WILL BRING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT LATE NIGHT FOG KBCB/KLWB BUT LOW
LVLS MAY STAY DRY ENOUGH FOR LESS FOG COVERAGE.

VARIABLE CIGS EXPECTED UNDER ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK. A FEW -SHRA NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS
EASTERN WV...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. TYPICAL FOG
POTENTIAL LESS THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK BECAUSE OF TURBULENT MIXING AND PREVAILING CYCLONIC FLOW.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE UPPER LOW RETROGRADES JUST
WEST OF THE REGION...INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA...
ESPECIALLY IN THE FRI-SUN TIME FRAME.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...JH/NF
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...NF/PH/RAB




000
FXUS61 KLWX 271406
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1006 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER MINNESOTA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.

AS OF 14Z...AN UPPER LEVEL DISBURBANCE HAS REACHED THE
APPALIACIANS IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SHOWERS ARE EXITING THE
NRN PIEDMONT AND SRN MD THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A DISTURBANCE
THAT CAME THROUGH THIS MORNING. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FIRST
DISTURBANCE HAS LED TO CLEARING ACROSS NRN MD AND THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS. ALTHOUGH MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEGINING TO
STREAM INTO FROM THE NEXT DISTURBANCE...PATCHES OF CLEARING WILL
CONTINUE FROM WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE LEADING
TO DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE AREA. A LULL OF ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
THIS MORNING AS THE ATM BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE. PER THE 12Z IAD
RAOB...CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 2K-2.5K J/KG BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 0-6KM SHEAR OF 42KTS AND 0-1KM OF 17 KTS
ARE OBSERVED IN THE SOUNDING RAOB. THIS SHEAR PROFILE IS FAVORABLE
FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION TODAY AND WILL LIKELY INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS IN/OH/KY WILL MOVE EASTWARD WITH TIME. THESE
SHOWERS WILL HAVE A OVERALL SE-E TRACK AND REACH THE CENTRAL
FOOTHILLS BY MIDDAY. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIMIT
INSTABILITY SOME AND THEREFORE CONVECTION SHOULD BE ISO-SCT AS IT
REACHES THE REGION. ELSEWHERE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INTIATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FROM LAKE ERIE
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT. THESE STORMS WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND BE STRONG. ANY
HEATING BOUNDARY OR OUTFLOW FROM DECAYING THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
LIKELY CAUSE THUNDERSTORM INTIATION ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON BUT
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THIS IS GOING TO BE THE TIME WHEN SEVERE WEATHER IS MOST
LIKELY...WHICH WOULD BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS AND THIS EVENING EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...KEEP IN MIND THAT SEVERE
STORMS OUT AHEAD OF THIS LINE MAY DEVELOP ACROSS ALL AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THE INSTABILITY...SHEAR PROFILES AND
LIFTING MECHANISMS SUCH AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...A SURFACE TROUGH
AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. IN FACT SUPERCELLS WITH SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IF THE INGREDIENTS ALL COME
TOGETHER. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREATS ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK LATER TONIGHT
WHILE THE POTENT COLD FRONT LIKELY JUMPS TO THE PRESSURE TROUGH OFF
TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY MORNING. THE DRY SLOT ALONG WITH COLD
ADVECTION SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS TO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 70S IN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NEXT 24 HRS LOOK TO BE VERY ACTIVE WX WISE...WITH A DOWNWARD
TREND IN ACTIVITY EXPECTED THEREAFTER. CD FNT LOOKS TO BE MOVING
OFFSHORE MIDDAY MON...BRINGING AN END TO THE CNVCTV CHCS AND
USHERING IN THE COOLER AIR THAT WL END WHAT IS TYPICALLY THE
HOTTEST TIME IN THE HOTTEST MONTH OF THE YR (CLIMATOLOGICALLY
TEMPS BEGIN TO DROP IN EARLY AUG). BRZY CONDS AREA XPCTD MON AFTN.

AFTR THAT SVRL DAYS OF M CLR SKIES W/ COMFORTABLE TEMPS ARE XPCTD.
DWPTS IN THE 50S...HARD NOT TO ENJOY THAT IN JUL. HIGH TEMPS TUE-THU
SHOULD BE IN THE LM80S (COOLER IN THE MTNS) W/ LOWS IN THE MU50S.
(WARMER IN THE CITIES). NO REALLY HOT WX ON TAP FOR THE MID ATLC RGN.

AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED B4 THE PRIMARY REASON FOR THIS IS THE UPR
LVL WRN RDG/ERN TROF. DRY AND HOT IN THE W - NW ICC WEB SITE SHOWS
MULTIPLE WILDFIRES ONGOING IN OR/WA - W/ 2 IN WA BEING ESPECIALLY
LARGE. THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO RMN IN PLACE UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT
WKND.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED TO MVFR/IFR
LEVELS BRIEFLY DURING TIMES OF CONVECTION.

CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF TO
OUR EAST.

CD FNT WL CROSS THE AREA MON MRNG. LINGERING SHOWERS/ANY LOWER CIGS
SHOULD IMPROVE BY AFTN THEN GUSTY NWRLY WINDS. THESE SHOULD
DIMINISH BY EVE. VFR CONDS MON NGT THRU THU.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
IT WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS...BUT A
STRENGHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WIND FIELD SHOULD CAUSE GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LATE
TONIGHT ALONG THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO
SMITH POINT AND THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER FROM COBB ISLAND TO
SMITH POINT. ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL AND ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE. PLEASE PAY ATTENTION
TO THE LATEST FORECASTS REGARDING WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR SEVERE
WEATHER.

SCA IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE WATERS DURG THE DAY MON AS A CD FNT
MOVES OFFSHORE AND WNW WINDS STRENGTHEN. NO PROBS FORESEEN MON
NGT-MIDWK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS CAUSED TIDAL ANOMALIES BETWEEN ONE HALF AND ONE
FOOT ABOVE NORMAL EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE
ALONG THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC SHORE NEAR WASHINGTON DC. AT THIS
TIME...THE FLOW APPEARS THAT IT IS LIGHT ENOUGH FOR WATER LEVELS
TO REMAIN JUST BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS NEAR HIGH TIDE THIS
MORNING.

THE HIGH TIDE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE LOWER OF THE TWO...SO NO
TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED. THE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TURN OFFSHORE
LATE TONIGHT SO ANOMALIES SHOULD COME DOWN A BIT. THEREFORE...TIDAL
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ530-531-535-536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-540-541-543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...HAS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...BJL/WOODY!








000
FXUS61 KLWX 271406
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1006 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER MINNESOTA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.

AS OF 14Z...AN UPPER LEVEL DISBURBANCE HAS REACHED THE
APPALIACIANS IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SHOWERS ARE EXITING THE
NRN PIEDMONT AND SRN MD THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A DISTURBANCE
THAT CAME THROUGH THIS MORNING. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FIRST
DISTURBANCE HAS LED TO CLEARING ACROSS NRN MD AND THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS. ALTHOUGH MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEGINING TO
STREAM INTO FROM THE NEXT DISTURBANCE...PATCHES OF CLEARING WILL
CONTINUE FROM WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE LEADING
TO DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE AREA. A LULL OF ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
THIS MORNING AS THE ATM BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE. PER THE 12Z IAD
RAOB...CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 2K-2.5K J/KG BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 0-6KM SHEAR OF 42KTS AND 0-1KM OF 17 KTS
ARE OBSERVED IN THE SOUNDING RAOB. THIS SHEAR PROFILE IS FAVORABLE
FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION TODAY AND WILL LIKELY INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS IN/OH/KY WILL MOVE EASTWARD WITH TIME. THESE
SHOWERS WILL HAVE A OVERALL SE-E TRACK AND REACH THE CENTRAL
FOOTHILLS BY MIDDAY. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIMIT
INSTABILITY SOME AND THEREFORE CONVECTION SHOULD BE ISO-SCT AS IT
REACHES THE REGION. ELSEWHERE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INTIATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FROM LAKE ERIE
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT. THESE STORMS WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND BE STRONG. ANY
HEATING BOUNDARY OR OUTFLOW FROM DECAYING THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
LIKELY CAUSE THUNDERSTORM INTIATION ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON BUT
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THIS IS GOING TO BE THE TIME WHEN SEVERE WEATHER IS MOST
LIKELY...WHICH WOULD BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS AND THIS EVENING EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...KEEP IN MIND THAT SEVERE
STORMS OUT AHEAD OF THIS LINE MAY DEVELOP ACROSS ALL AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THE INSTABILITY...SHEAR PROFILES AND
LIFTING MECHANISMS SUCH AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...A SURFACE TROUGH
AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. IN FACT SUPERCELLS WITH SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IF THE INGREDIENTS ALL COME
TOGETHER. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREATS ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK LATER TONIGHT
WHILE THE POTENT COLD FRONT LIKELY JUMPS TO THE PRESSURE TROUGH OFF
TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY MORNING. THE DRY SLOT ALONG WITH COLD
ADVECTION SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS TO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 70S IN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NEXT 24 HRS LOOK TO BE VERY ACTIVE WX WISE...WITH A DOWNWARD
TREND IN ACTIVITY EXPECTED THEREAFTER. CD FNT LOOKS TO BE MOVING
OFFSHORE MIDDAY MON...BRINGING AN END TO THE CNVCTV CHCS AND
USHERING IN THE COOLER AIR THAT WL END WHAT IS TYPICALLY THE
HOTTEST TIME IN THE HOTTEST MONTH OF THE YR (CLIMATOLOGICALLY
TEMPS BEGIN TO DROP IN EARLY AUG). BRZY CONDS AREA XPCTD MON AFTN.

AFTR THAT SVRL DAYS OF M CLR SKIES W/ COMFORTABLE TEMPS ARE XPCTD.
DWPTS IN THE 50S...HARD NOT TO ENJOY THAT IN JUL. HIGH TEMPS TUE-THU
SHOULD BE IN THE LM80S (COOLER IN THE MTNS) W/ LOWS IN THE MU50S.
(WARMER IN THE CITIES). NO REALLY HOT WX ON TAP FOR THE MID ATLC RGN.

AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED B4 THE PRIMARY REASON FOR THIS IS THE UPR
LVL WRN RDG/ERN TROF. DRY AND HOT IN THE W - NW ICC WEB SITE SHOWS
MULTIPLE WILDFIRES ONGOING IN OR/WA - W/ 2 IN WA BEING ESPECIALLY
LARGE. THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO RMN IN PLACE UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT
WKND.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED TO MVFR/IFR
LEVELS BRIEFLY DURING TIMES OF CONVECTION.

CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF TO
OUR EAST.

CD FNT WL CROSS THE AREA MON MRNG. LINGERING SHOWERS/ANY LOWER CIGS
SHOULD IMPROVE BY AFTN THEN GUSTY NWRLY WINDS. THESE SHOULD
DIMINISH BY EVE. VFR CONDS MON NGT THRU THU.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
IT WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS...BUT A
STRENGHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WIND FIELD SHOULD CAUSE GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LATE
TONIGHT ALONG THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO
SMITH POINT AND THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER FROM COBB ISLAND TO
SMITH POINT. ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL AND ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE. PLEASE PAY ATTENTION
TO THE LATEST FORECASTS REGARDING WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR SEVERE
WEATHER.

SCA IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE WATERS DURG THE DAY MON AS A CD FNT
MOVES OFFSHORE AND WNW WINDS STRENGTHEN. NO PROBS FORESEEN MON
NGT-MIDWK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS CAUSED TIDAL ANOMALIES BETWEEN ONE HALF AND ONE
FOOT ABOVE NORMAL EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE
ALONG THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC SHORE NEAR WASHINGTON DC. AT THIS
TIME...THE FLOW APPEARS THAT IT IS LIGHT ENOUGH FOR WATER LEVELS
TO REMAIN JUST BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS NEAR HIGH TIDE THIS
MORNING.

THE HIGH TIDE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE LOWER OF THE TWO...SO NO
TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED. THE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TURN OFFSHORE
LATE TONIGHT SO ANOMALIES SHOULD COME DOWN A BIT. THEREFORE...TIDAL
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ530-531-535-536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-540-541-543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...HAS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...BJL/WOODY!







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271335
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
935 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON..THEN CROSSES THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MADE SOME CHANGES TO GRIDS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS SFC OBS
AND MODEL GUIDANCE. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO ACCOUNT FOR LINE OF
CONVECTION MARCHING EAST ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT ATTM. HRRR SEEMS
TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON THE CRNT TRENDS...SO INCREASED POPS TO
LIKELY ACROSS SRN MOST COUNTIES NEXT SVRL HRS AS THIS LINE MOVES
EAST.. VSBY SAT LOOP SHOWING SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE AHEAD OF IT TO
KEEP THE LINE GOING.

LOWERED TMPS BY A CATEGORY MOST PLACES (CLOSER TO LAV GUID) GIVEN
ALL THE CLOUDS AND PCPN FROM THE MORNING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. TUFF
CALL FOR SERN COUNTIES AS TMPS MAY GET TO 90 THERE...BUT THEN DROP
IN ANY CONVECTION BY ERLY AFTRN.

MAIN QUESTION FOR THIS AFTRN IS HOW MUCH HEATING WILL OCCUR BEHIND
THE FIRST DEPARTING S/W AND AHEAD OF NXT APPRCHG S/W NOW OVR KY
VLLY. LATEST DATA SUGGESTS THIS COMPLEX TAKING A MORE SOUTHERLY
ROUTE (ACROSS SRN HALF OF VA / NC THIS EVENING.

SPC CONTINUES TO HAVE FA OUTLOOKED IN SLGHT RISK WITH A RECENTLY
ISSUED PWO FOR AREAS TO OUR WEST. STAY TUNED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE STRONG COLD FRONT QUICKLY PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.
OVERNIGHT SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE FOCUSED ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AND RE-FIRE IN INTENSITY DUE TO THE ADDED LIFT. OVERALL...
PRECIP SHOULD BE CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS UNTIL THE FRONT CAN
PUSH WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING.
ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS DIMINISHED ON
MONDAY...A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
WEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH AS A COOLER
AND DRIER CANADIAN AIRMASS FILTERS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW-N.
WINDS AND SUNSHINE WILL BE KEY PLAYERS IN HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY.
CURRENT FORECAST RANGES FROM THE UPPER 80S NW TO 90-95 SE.


BNDRY PROGGED TO STALL INVOF GULF STREAM MON NIGHT AND TUE WHILE A
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH. KEPT SLGHT CHC
POPS ALONG SERN CSTL AREAS MON EVENING. LOWS IN THE 60S...XCPT L70S
SERN CSTL AREAS. DRY TUESDAY ALONG WITH LOWER HUMIDITY AS DEWPOINTS
DROP INTO THE 50S. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE L80S...U70S AT
THE BEACHES. LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S W TO MID 60S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF DIGS OVR THE MID ATLC REGION TUE NGT
INTO EARLY THU...BEFORE RETROGRADING BACK INTO THE OH AND MS VALLEYS
THU AFTN THRU SAT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OFF THE MID ATLC
CST TUE NGT THRU FRI...THEN DRIFTS BACK TWD THE CST FRI NGT THRU
SAT. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR TUE NGT THRU FRI...THEN HAVE ADDED
SLGT CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT AND SAT. A MORE COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL
DOMINATE THE AREA TUE NGT THRU THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
HUMIDITY RETURNS FOR FRI AND SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LWR TO MID 80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S
TO MID 60S WED AND THU MORNGS...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI
MORNG...AND RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AREA OF CONVECTION SLIDING SE FM SW PA/NRN WV/NW VA TO CONT
TRACKING ESE THROUGH EARLY MRNG HRS W/ SOME WEAKENING AS IT DOES
SO. PTNTL FOR PCPN AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...ESP KRIC-KSBY. A
SECOND AREA OF CONVECTION FCST TO EXIT THE MTNS MID/LT MRNG...AND
TRACK OVR THE RGN MIDDAY INTO THIS EVE (ALSO W/ PSBL BRIEF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS/HVY RA). OTRW...SSW WINDS GUSTING TO 15 KT AND SCT-BKN
CLDS XPCD TDA AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W.
THE FRONT IS XPCD TO CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY W/ LO PROB FOR
PCPN AND GUSTY MNLY W WNDS (TO 20 KT). MNLY VFR CONDS MON NGT INTO
WED.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES XPCD THRU MON. A CDFNT PUSHES APPROACHES THE MID ATLC
REGION TDA...THEN MOVE ACRS THE WTRS AND OFF THE CST LATE TNGT
THROUGH MON NGT. SSW WINDS 10 TO 20 KT THROUGH TNGT. WINDS WILL TURN
TO THE W DURING MON...THEN NW AND N MON NGT INTO TUE MRNG.
WAVES/SEAS LIKELY TO RISE A FOOT OR TWO IN RESPONSE TO INCRSD SPDS
AND DIRECTION CHG TO NNW (MON NGT INTO TUE). GENERALLY NNE WINDS
15 KT OR LESS EXPECTED FOR TUE THRU THU.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271335
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
935 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON..THEN CROSSES THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MADE SOME CHANGES TO GRIDS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS SFC OBS
AND MODEL GUIDANCE. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO ACCOUNT FOR LINE OF
CONVECTION MARCHING EAST ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT ATTM. HRRR SEEMS
TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON THE CRNT TRENDS...SO INCREASED POPS TO
LIKELY ACROSS SRN MOST COUNTIES NEXT SVRL HRS AS THIS LINE MOVES
EAST.. VSBY SAT LOOP SHOWING SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE AHEAD OF IT TO
KEEP THE LINE GOING.

LOWERED TMPS BY A CATEGORY MOST PLACES (CLOSER TO LAV GUID) GIVEN
ALL THE CLOUDS AND PCPN FROM THE MORNING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. TUFF
CALL FOR SERN COUNTIES AS TMPS MAY GET TO 90 THERE...BUT THEN DROP
IN ANY CONVECTION BY ERLY AFTRN.

MAIN QUESTION FOR THIS AFTRN IS HOW MUCH HEATING WILL OCCUR BEHIND
THE FIRST DEPARTING S/W AND AHEAD OF NXT APPRCHG S/W NOW OVR KY
VLLY. LATEST DATA SUGGESTS THIS COMPLEX TAKING A MORE SOUTHERLY
ROUTE (ACROSS SRN HALF OF VA / NC THIS EVENING.

SPC CONTINUES TO HAVE FA OUTLOOKED IN SLGHT RISK WITH A RECENTLY
ISSUED PWO FOR AREAS TO OUR WEST. STAY TUNED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE STRONG COLD FRONT QUICKLY PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.
OVERNIGHT SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE FOCUSED ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AND RE-FIRE IN INTENSITY DUE TO THE ADDED LIFT. OVERALL...
PRECIP SHOULD BE CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS UNTIL THE FRONT CAN
PUSH WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING.
ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS DIMINISHED ON
MONDAY...A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
WEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH AS A COOLER
AND DRIER CANADIAN AIRMASS FILTERS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW-N.
WINDS AND SUNSHINE WILL BE KEY PLAYERS IN HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY.
CURRENT FORECAST RANGES FROM THE UPPER 80S NW TO 90-95 SE.


BNDRY PROGGED TO STALL INVOF GULF STREAM MON NIGHT AND TUE WHILE A
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH. KEPT SLGHT CHC
POPS ALONG SERN CSTL AREAS MON EVENING. LOWS IN THE 60S...XCPT L70S
SERN CSTL AREAS. DRY TUESDAY ALONG WITH LOWER HUMIDITY AS DEWPOINTS
DROP INTO THE 50S. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE L80S...U70S AT
THE BEACHES. LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S W TO MID 60S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF DIGS OVR THE MID ATLC REGION TUE NGT
INTO EARLY THU...BEFORE RETROGRADING BACK INTO THE OH AND MS VALLEYS
THU AFTN THRU SAT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OFF THE MID ATLC
CST TUE NGT THRU FRI...THEN DRIFTS BACK TWD THE CST FRI NGT THRU
SAT. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR TUE NGT THRU FRI...THEN HAVE ADDED
SLGT CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT AND SAT. A MORE COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL
DOMINATE THE AREA TUE NGT THRU THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
HUMIDITY RETURNS FOR FRI AND SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LWR TO MID 80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S
TO MID 60S WED AND THU MORNGS...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI
MORNG...AND RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AREA OF CONVECTION SLIDING SE FM SW PA/NRN WV/NW VA TO CONT
TRACKING ESE THROUGH EARLY MRNG HRS W/ SOME WEAKENING AS IT DOES
SO. PTNTL FOR PCPN AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...ESP KRIC-KSBY. A
SECOND AREA OF CONVECTION FCST TO EXIT THE MTNS MID/LT MRNG...AND
TRACK OVR THE RGN MIDDAY INTO THIS EVE (ALSO W/ PSBL BRIEF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS/HVY RA). OTRW...SSW WINDS GUSTING TO 15 KT AND SCT-BKN
CLDS XPCD TDA AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W.
THE FRONT IS XPCD TO CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY W/ LO PROB FOR
PCPN AND GUSTY MNLY W WNDS (TO 20 KT). MNLY VFR CONDS MON NGT INTO
WED.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES XPCD THRU MON. A CDFNT PUSHES APPROACHES THE MID ATLC
REGION TDA...THEN MOVE ACRS THE WTRS AND OFF THE CST LATE TNGT
THROUGH MON NGT. SSW WINDS 10 TO 20 KT THROUGH TNGT. WINDS WILL TURN
TO THE W DURING MON...THEN NW AND N MON NGT INTO TUE MRNG.
WAVES/SEAS LIKELY TO RISE A FOOT OR TWO IN RESPONSE TO INCRSD SPDS
AND DIRECTION CHG TO NNW (MON NGT INTO TUE). GENERALLY NNE WINDS
15 KT OR LESS EXPECTED FOR TUE THRU THU.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB







000
FXUS61 KLWX 271135
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
735 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER MINNESOTA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY IS CANCELED.

A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE LOCATED IN THE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. ONE IS OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE ANOTHER ONE IS
TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC HAS USHERED IN MORE MOISTURE...CAUSING
INSTABILITY TO INCREASE. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED INSTABILITY
AND FORCING FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES HAS TRIGGERED SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT THE OTHER ONE IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH OUR AREA
LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS OF NOW...IT APPEARS THAT ANY THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LIMITED
DUE TO CLOUD COVER...MARGINAL PROFILES AND PRECIPITATION KEEPING
INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT LIMITED.

HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD AT
LEAST BE SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE...AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S...THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. NAM/GFS BUFKIT ARE INDICATING BETWEEN 1000
AND 2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A
POTENT SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE UPPER-LEVEL AND LOWER-LEVEL FLOW
OVER OUR AREA...CAUSING SHEAR PROFILES TO BE HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY INTO WEST VIRGINIA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY SPREAD THROUGH OUR AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS IS GOING TO BE THE TIME WHEN
SEVERE WEATHER IS MOST LIKELY...WHICH WOULD BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS AND THIS
EVENING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...KEEP IN MIND
THAT SEVERE STORMS OUT AHEAD OF THIS LINE MAY DEVELOP ACROSS ALL
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THE INSTABILITY...SHEAR
PROFILES AND LIFTING MECHANISMS SUCH AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...A
SURFACE TROUGH AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ENHANCE THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IN FACT SUPERCELLS WITH SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IF THE
INGREDIENTS ALL COME TOGETHER. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK LATER TONIGHT
WHILE THE POTENT COLD FRONT LIKELY JUMPS TO THE PRESSURE TROUGH OFF
TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY MORNING. THE DRY SLOT ALONG WITH COLD
ADVECTION SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS TO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 70S IN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NEXT 24 HRS LOOK TO BE VERY ACTIVE WX WISE...WITH A DOWNWARD
TREND IN ACTIVITY EXPECTED THEREAFTER. CD FNT LOOKS TO BE MOVING
OFFSHORE MIDDAY MON...BRINGING AN END TO THE CNVCTV CHCS AND
USHERING IN THE COOLER AIR THAT WL END WHAT IS TYPICALLY THE
HOTTEST TIME IN THE HOTTEST MONTH OF THE YR (CLIMATOLOGICALLY
TEMPS BEGIN TO DROP IN EARLY AUG). BRZY CONDS AREA XPCTD MON AFTN.

AFTR THAT SVRL DAYS OF M CLR SKIES W/ COMFORTABLE TEMPS ARE XPCTD.
DWPTS IN THE 50S...HARD NOT TO ENJOY THAT IN JUL. HIGH TEMPS TUE-THU
SHOULD BE IN THE LM80S (COOLER IN THE MTNS) W/ LOWS IN THE MU50S.
(WARMER IN THE CITIES). NO REALLY HOT WX ON TAP FOR THE MID ATLC RGN.

AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED B4 THE PRIMARY REASON FOR THIS IS THE UPR
LVL WRN RDG/ERN TROF. DRY AND HOT IN THE W - NW ICC WEB SITE SHOWS
MULTIPLE WILDFIRES ONGOING IN OR/WA - W/ 2 IN WA BEING ESPECIALLY
LARGE. THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO RMN IN PLACE UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT
WKND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED TO MVFR/IFR
LEVELS BRIEFLY DURING TIMES OF CONVECTION.

CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF TO
OUR EAST.

CD FNT WL CROSS THE AREA MON MRNG. LINGERING SHOWERS/ANY LOWER CIGS
SHOULD IMPROVE BY AFTN THEN GUSTY NWRLY WINDS. THESE SHOULD
DIMINISH BY EVE. VFR CONDS MON NGT THRU THU.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
IT WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS...BUT A
STRENGHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WIND FIELD SHOULD CAUSE GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LATE
TONIGHT ALONG THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO
SMITH POINT AND THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER FROM COBB ISLAND TO
SMITH POINT. ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL AND ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE. PLEASE PAY ATTENTION
TO THE LATEST FORECASTS REGARDING WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR SEVERE
WEATHER.

SCA IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE WATERS DURG THE DAY MON AS A CD FNT
MOVES OFFSHORE AND WNW WINDS STRENGTHEN. NO PROBS FORESEEN MON
NGT-MIDWK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS CAUSED TIDAL ANOMALIES BETWEEN ONE HALF AND ONE
FOOT ABOVE NORMAL EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE
ALONG THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC SHORE NEAR WASHINGTON DC. AT THIS
TIME...THE FLOW APPEARS THAT IT IS LIGHT ENOUGH FOR WATER LEVELS
TO REMAIN JUST BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS NEAR HIGH TIDE THIS
MORNING.

THE HIGH TIDE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE LOWER OF THE TWO...SO NO
TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED. THE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TURN OFFSHORE
LATE TONIGHT SO ANOMALIES SHOULD COME DOWN A BIT. THEREFORE...TIDAL
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ530-531-535-536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-540-541-543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...HAS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...BJL/WOODY!







000
FXUS61 KLWX 271135
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
735 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER MINNESOTA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY IS CANCELED.

A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE LOCATED IN THE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. ONE IS OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE ANOTHER ONE IS
TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC HAS USHERED IN MORE MOISTURE...CAUSING
INSTABILITY TO INCREASE. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED INSTABILITY
AND FORCING FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES HAS TRIGGERED SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT THE OTHER ONE IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH OUR AREA
LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS OF NOW...IT APPEARS THAT ANY THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LIMITED
DUE TO CLOUD COVER...MARGINAL PROFILES AND PRECIPITATION KEEPING
INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT LIMITED.

HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD AT
LEAST BE SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE...AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S...THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. NAM/GFS BUFKIT ARE INDICATING BETWEEN 1000
AND 2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A
POTENT SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE UPPER-LEVEL AND LOWER-LEVEL FLOW
OVER OUR AREA...CAUSING SHEAR PROFILES TO BE HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY INTO WEST VIRGINIA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY SPREAD THROUGH OUR AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS IS GOING TO BE THE TIME WHEN
SEVERE WEATHER IS MOST LIKELY...WHICH WOULD BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS AND THIS
EVENING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...KEEP IN MIND
THAT SEVERE STORMS OUT AHEAD OF THIS LINE MAY DEVELOP ACROSS ALL
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THE INSTABILITY...SHEAR
PROFILES AND LIFTING MECHANISMS SUCH AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...A
SURFACE TROUGH AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ENHANCE THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IN FACT SUPERCELLS WITH SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IF THE
INGREDIENTS ALL COME TOGETHER. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK LATER TONIGHT
WHILE THE POTENT COLD FRONT LIKELY JUMPS TO THE PRESSURE TROUGH OFF
TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY MORNING. THE DRY SLOT ALONG WITH COLD
ADVECTION SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS TO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 70S IN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NEXT 24 HRS LOOK TO BE VERY ACTIVE WX WISE...WITH A DOWNWARD
TREND IN ACTIVITY EXPECTED THEREAFTER. CD FNT LOOKS TO BE MOVING
OFFSHORE MIDDAY MON...BRINGING AN END TO THE CNVCTV CHCS AND
USHERING IN THE COOLER AIR THAT WL END WHAT IS TYPICALLY THE
HOTTEST TIME IN THE HOTTEST MONTH OF THE YR (CLIMATOLOGICALLY
TEMPS BEGIN TO DROP IN EARLY AUG). BRZY CONDS AREA XPCTD MON AFTN.

AFTR THAT SVRL DAYS OF M CLR SKIES W/ COMFORTABLE TEMPS ARE XPCTD.
DWPTS IN THE 50S...HARD NOT TO ENJOY THAT IN JUL. HIGH TEMPS TUE-THU
SHOULD BE IN THE LM80S (COOLER IN THE MTNS) W/ LOWS IN THE MU50S.
(WARMER IN THE CITIES). NO REALLY HOT WX ON TAP FOR THE MID ATLC RGN.

AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED B4 THE PRIMARY REASON FOR THIS IS THE UPR
LVL WRN RDG/ERN TROF. DRY AND HOT IN THE W - NW ICC WEB SITE SHOWS
MULTIPLE WILDFIRES ONGOING IN OR/WA - W/ 2 IN WA BEING ESPECIALLY
LARGE. THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO RMN IN PLACE UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT
WKND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED TO MVFR/IFR
LEVELS BRIEFLY DURING TIMES OF CONVECTION.

CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF TO
OUR EAST.

CD FNT WL CROSS THE AREA MON MRNG. LINGERING SHOWERS/ANY LOWER CIGS
SHOULD IMPROVE BY AFTN THEN GUSTY NWRLY WINDS. THESE SHOULD
DIMINISH BY EVE. VFR CONDS MON NGT THRU THU.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
IT WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS...BUT A
STRENGHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WIND FIELD SHOULD CAUSE GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LATE
TONIGHT ALONG THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO
SMITH POINT AND THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER FROM COBB ISLAND TO
SMITH POINT. ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL AND ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE. PLEASE PAY ATTENTION
TO THE LATEST FORECASTS REGARDING WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR SEVERE
WEATHER.

SCA IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE WATERS DURG THE DAY MON AS A CD FNT
MOVES OFFSHORE AND WNW WINDS STRENGTHEN. NO PROBS FORESEEN MON
NGT-MIDWK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS CAUSED TIDAL ANOMALIES BETWEEN ONE HALF AND ONE
FOOT ABOVE NORMAL EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE
ALONG THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC SHORE NEAR WASHINGTON DC. AT THIS
TIME...THE FLOW APPEARS THAT IT IS LIGHT ENOUGH FOR WATER LEVELS
TO REMAIN JUST BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS NEAR HIGH TIDE THIS
MORNING.

THE HIGH TIDE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE LOWER OF THE TWO...SO NO
TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED. THE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TURN OFFSHORE
LATE TONIGHT SO ANOMALIES SHOULD COME DOWN A BIT. THEREFORE...TIDAL
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ530-531-535-536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-540-541-543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...HAS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...BJL/WOODY!








000
FXUS61 KRNK 271126
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
726 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION THIS MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ALONG THE
APPALACHIAN CHAIN. ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
APPROACH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE MIDWEST...TRIGGERING
STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS EVENING. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY...
RESULTING IN COOLER WEATHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT SUNDAY...

SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES
OVERHEAD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AROUND A HALF INCH
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...WITH AMOUNTS TAPERING DOWN TO A
FEW HUNDREDTHS FURTHER EAST. IN ADDITION TO THE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY
AFFECTING OUR AREA...ALSO KEEPING AN EYE ON TWO OTHER AREAS OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ONE ENTERING WESTERN KENTUCKY AND ANOTHER
OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS.

RAPID UPDATE FORECAST MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY WILL SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST...
PUSHING INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS LATE MORNING TO AROUND
NOON. WHILE THE DISTURBANCE TRIGGERING THESE STORMS MAY REMAIN
STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...
WONDERING IF THE CLOUD COVER IT PRODUCES WILL ALSO LIMIT
INSTABILITY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460 DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
THE SECOND...MORE POTENT DISTURBANCE PUSHES EAST ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER.

THE SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL BRING WITH IT AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
MID LEVEL WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 50KT TO 60KT. WITH CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED TO BE MORE DIMINISHED HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 460...EXPECT GREATER INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA. MODELS ARE
IN AGREEMENT ON BRINGING THE SECOND LINE OF STORMS INTO SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA DURING THE 6PM TO 8PM TIME FRAME...WITH CONVECTION
QUICKLY SPREADING EAST THEREAFTER. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS WILL BE POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS AS THE DOWNDRAFTS PULL
THE STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS TO THE SURFACE. HAIL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE STRONGER CELLS...AS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN DUE TO THE UNUSUALLY HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM. DUE TO THE STRONG SHEAR PRESENTED BY THIS SYSTEM...
CANNOT EVEN RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO...ALTHOUGH BELIEVE THE
THREAT IS HIGHER WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS...OUTSIDE OUR FORECAST
AREA.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH DURING LATE EVENING
AS THE LINE PASSES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND BEGINS TO MOVE
DOWNSLOPE...ALTHOUGH SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN
THROUGH MIDNIGHT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT
WESTERLY EARLY MONDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION...LEAVING ONLY UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS.

AS MENTIONED BEFORE...CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS ARE ADDING TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF MANY ASPECTS OF THE FORECAST...INCLUDING AFTERNOON
HIGHS. HAVE UNDERCUT MAV/MET GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES...OPTING
FOR THE COOLER MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...

BY 12Z (8 AM EDT) MONDAY...THE DYNAMIC UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
HAVE LIFTED INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S. LEAVING A DEEP LOW LEVEL
NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE. FAIR PRESSURE RISES AND 40+ KT 850MB WINDS
SHOULD GENERATE GUSTY WINDS...BUT SPEEDS REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

RESIDUAL MOISTURE BELOW 4K FT SHOWN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS FORCED UP
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES...COMBINED WITH LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN
6.5 C/KM WILL HELP GENERATE UPSLOPE SHOWERS MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY
EVENING.

LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS MONDAY...HOWEVER...WITH
DOWNSLOPING WINDS...TEMPS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL STILL MANAGE
TO REACH WELL INTO THE 80S.

CHANCE FOR UPSLOPE SHOWERS DIMINISH TUESDAY AND UPSLOPE FLOW WEAKENS
AND LOW LEVEL DRYING CONTINUES.  AS THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE ALSO WEAKENS...COOLING TREND CONTINUES AND WENT SLIGHTLY
BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TUESDAY. ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL EASTERN U.S. TROF HELPS DEVELOP A WEAK SFC LOW ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS LATE TUESDAY. MODELS HINT THAT THIS MAY PRODUCE A WEAK
EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE FAR EAST AND PERHAPS BRING SOME CLOUDS TO
THIS REGION.  ACROSS THE WEST...HOWEVER...SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT TO DROP INTO THE 40S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A COLD FRONT WELL OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.
A 1020MB SURFACE HIGH OVER SE MO SHIFTS TO THE NE STATES THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. AT THE MID LEVELS...A RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
WESTERN US...WHILE A TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN US. VERY
LITTLE MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE ONLY
PLACE THAT MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEAK OUT A SHOWER OR TWO IS ACROSS THE
FAR SW...OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY. MOISTURE AND
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THUS
INCREASING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GREATEST CHANCE
POPS ARE ACROSS THE WEST WHERE THE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED.

850MB TEMPS OF +13-15C AND A PERSISTENT WEDGING EASTERLY WIND WILL
ALLOW SURFACE HIGH TEMPS TO BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THURSDAY
WILL BE THE COOLEST MORNING OF THE PERIOD WITH UPPER 40S POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOW TEMPS WILL
MODERATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE DEWPTS INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT SUNDAY...

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CREATING SPOTTY AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS THIS MORNING. THIS FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL
DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING. WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH IN THE NORTHWEST
NC MOUNTAINS AND FAR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.

WHILE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING...A
COMPLEX OF STORMS IN KENTUCKY WILL SPREAD MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER
THE REGION...AS WELL AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY
IN NW NORTH CAROLINA.

THE GREATEST THREAT TO AVIATORS TODAY WILL BE YET ANOTHER COMPLEX
OF STORMS THAT WILL ENTER OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.THERE STILL IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER REMAINS FROM
THE MORNING CONVECTION.

REGARDLESS...WITH AN IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELD ALOFT...CONFIDENCE IS
GROWING THAT THIS LARGE COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL IMPACT OUR AREA AND
MANY TAF SITES...BUT MOST LIKELY KBLF...KLWB...KBCB AND KROA.
AS A RESULT...INTRODUCED THUNDER WITH PROB30 OF WIND GUSTS TO
30-40KTS. IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED WITH THIS
COMPLEX.

A COLD FRONT PASSES TONIGHT...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS...BUT GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THREAT OF SUB VFR THROUGH MONDAY EXPECTED ACROSS SE WEST VA PER
NW FLOW...BUT LESS ELSEWHERE GIVEN DOWNSLOPE.

DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FOR TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WILL BRING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT LATE NIGHT FOG KBCB/KLWB BUT LOW
LVLS MAY STAY DRY ENOUGH FOR LESS FOG COVERAGE.

VARIABLE CIGS EXPECTED UNDER ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK. A FEW -SHRA NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS
EASTERN WV...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. TYPICAL FOG
POTENTIAL LESS THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK BECAUSE OF TURBULENT MIXING AND PREVAILING CYCLONIC FLOW.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE UPPER LOW RETROGRADES JUST
WEST OF THE REGION...INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA...
ESPECIALLY IN THE FRI-SUN TIME FRAME.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...NF/PH/RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 271126
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
726 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION THIS MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ALONG THE
APPALACHIAN CHAIN. ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
APPROACH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE MIDWEST...TRIGGERING
STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS EVENING. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY...
RESULTING IN COOLER WEATHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT SUNDAY...

SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES
OVERHEAD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AROUND A HALF INCH
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...WITH AMOUNTS TAPERING DOWN TO A
FEW HUNDREDTHS FURTHER EAST. IN ADDITION TO THE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY
AFFECTING OUR AREA...ALSO KEEPING AN EYE ON TWO OTHER AREAS OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ONE ENTERING WESTERN KENTUCKY AND ANOTHER
OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS.

RAPID UPDATE FORECAST MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY WILL SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST...
PUSHING INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS LATE MORNING TO AROUND
NOON. WHILE THE DISTURBANCE TRIGGERING THESE STORMS MAY REMAIN
STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...
WONDERING IF THE CLOUD COVER IT PRODUCES WILL ALSO LIMIT
INSTABILITY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460 DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
THE SECOND...MORE POTENT DISTURBANCE PUSHES EAST ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER.

THE SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL BRING WITH IT AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
MID LEVEL WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 50KT TO 60KT. WITH CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED TO BE MORE DIMINISHED HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 460...EXPECT GREATER INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA. MODELS ARE
IN AGREEMENT ON BRINGING THE SECOND LINE OF STORMS INTO SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA DURING THE 6PM TO 8PM TIME FRAME...WITH CONVECTION
QUICKLY SPREADING EAST THEREAFTER. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS WILL BE POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS AS THE DOWNDRAFTS PULL
THE STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS TO THE SURFACE. HAIL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE STRONGER CELLS...AS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN DUE TO THE UNUSUALLY HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM. DUE TO THE STRONG SHEAR PRESENTED BY THIS SYSTEM...
CANNOT EVEN RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO...ALTHOUGH BELIEVE THE
THREAT IS HIGHER WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS...OUTSIDE OUR FORECAST
AREA.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH DURING LATE EVENING
AS THE LINE PASSES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND BEGINS TO MOVE
DOWNSLOPE...ALTHOUGH SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN
THROUGH MIDNIGHT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT
WESTERLY EARLY MONDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION...LEAVING ONLY UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS.

AS MENTIONED BEFORE...CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS ARE ADDING TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF MANY ASPECTS OF THE FORECAST...INCLUDING AFTERNOON
HIGHS. HAVE UNDERCUT MAV/MET GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES...OPTING
FOR THE COOLER MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...

BY 12Z (8 AM EDT) MONDAY...THE DYNAMIC UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
HAVE LIFTED INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S. LEAVING A DEEP LOW LEVEL
NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE. FAIR PRESSURE RISES AND 40+ KT 850MB WINDS
SHOULD GENERATE GUSTY WINDS...BUT SPEEDS REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

RESIDUAL MOISTURE BELOW 4K FT SHOWN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS FORCED UP
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES...COMBINED WITH LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN
6.5 C/KM WILL HELP GENERATE UPSLOPE SHOWERS MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY
EVENING.

LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS MONDAY...HOWEVER...WITH
DOWNSLOPING WINDS...TEMPS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL STILL MANAGE
TO REACH WELL INTO THE 80S.

CHANCE FOR UPSLOPE SHOWERS DIMINISH TUESDAY AND UPSLOPE FLOW WEAKENS
AND LOW LEVEL DRYING CONTINUES.  AS THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE ALSO WEAKENS...COOLING TREND CONTINUES AND WENT SLIGHTLY
BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TUESDAY. ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL EASTERN U.S. TROF HELPS DEVELOP A WEAK SFC LOW ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS LATE TUESDAY. MODELS HINT THAT THIS MAY PRODUCE A WEAK
EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE FAR EAST AND PERHAPS BRING SOME CLOUDS TO
THIS REGION.  ACROSS THE WEST...HOWEVER...SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT TO DROP INTO THE 40S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A COLD FRONT WELL OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.
A 1020MB SURFACE HIGH OVER SE MO SHIFTS TO THE NE STATES THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. AT THE MID LEVELS...A RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
WESTERN US...WHILE A TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN US. VERY
LITTLE MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE ONLY
PLACE THAT MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEAK OUT A SHOWER OR TWO IS ACROSS THE
FAR SW...OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY. MOISTURE AND
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THUS
INCREASING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GREATEST CHANCE
POPS ARE ACROSS THE WEST WHERE THE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED.

850MB TEMPS OF +13-15C AND A PERSISTENT WEDGING EASTERLY WIND WILL
ALLOW SURFACE HIGH TEMPS TO BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THURSDAY
WILL BE THE COOLEST MORNING OF THE PERIOD WITH UPPER 40S POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOW TEMPS WILL
MODERATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE DEWPTS INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT SUNDAY...

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CREATING SPOTTY AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS THIS MORNING. THIS FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL
DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING. WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH IN THE NORTHWEST
NC MOUNTAINS AND FAR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.

WHILE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING...A
COMPLEX OF STORMS IN KENTUCKY WILL SPREAD MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER
THE REGION...AS WELL AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY
IN NW NORTH CAROLINA.

THE GREATEST THREAT TO AVIATORS TODAY WILL BE YET ANOTHER COMPLEX
OF STORMS THAT WILL ENTER OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.THERE STILL IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER REMAINS FROM
THE MORNING CONVECTION.

REGARDLESS...WITH AN IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELD ALOFT...CONFIDENCE IS
GROWING THAT THIS LARGE COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL IMPACT OUR AREA AND
MANY TAF SITES...BUT MOST LIKELY KBLF...KLWB...KBCB AND KROA.
AS A RESULT...INTRODUCED THUNDER WITH PROB30 OF WIND GUSTS TO
30-40KTS. IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED WITH THIS
COMPLEX.

A COLD FRONT PASSES TONIGHT...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS...BUT GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THREAT OF SUB VFR THROUGH MONDAY EXPECTED ACROSS SE WEST VA PER
NW FLOW...BUT LESS ELSEWHERE GIVEN DOWNSLOPE.

DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FOR TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WILL BRING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT LATE NIGHT FOG KBCB/KLWB BUT LOW
LVLS MAY STAY DRY ENOUGH FOR LESS FOG COVERAGE.

VARIABLE CIGS EXPECTED UNDER ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK. A FEW -SHRA NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS
EASTERN WV...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. TYPICAL FOG
POTENTIAL LESS THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK BECAUSE OF TURBULENT MIXING AND PREVAILING CYCLONIC FLOW.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE UPPER LOW RETROGRADES JUST
WEST OF THE REGION...INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA...
ESPECIALLY IN THE FRI-SUN TIME FRAME.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...NF/PH/RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 271126
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
726 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION THIS MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ALONG THE
APPALACHIAN CHAIN. ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
APPROACH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE MIDWEST...TRIGGERING
STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS EVENING. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY...
RESULTING IN COOLER WEATHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT SUNDAY...

SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES
OVERHEAD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AROUND A HALF INCH
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...WITH AMOUNTS TAPERING DOWN TO A
FEW HUNDREDTHS FURTHER EAST. IN ADDITION TO THE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY
AFFECTING OUR AREA...ALSO KEEPING AN EYE ON TWO OTHER AREAS OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ONE ENTERING WESTERN KENTUCKY AND ANOTHER
OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS.

RAPID UPDATE FORECAST MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY WILL SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST...
PUSHING INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS LATE MORNING TO AROUND
NOON. WHILE THE DISTURBANCE TRIGGERING THESE STORMS MAY REMAIN
STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...
WONDERING IF THE CLOUD COVER IT PRODUCES WILL ALSO LIMIT
INSTABILITY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460 DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
THE SECOND...MORE POTENT DISTURBANCE PUSHES EAST ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER.

THE SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL BRING WITH IT AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
MID LEVEL WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 50KT TO 60KT. WITH CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED TO BE MORE DIMINISHED HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 460...EXPECT GREATER INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA. MODELS ARE
IN AGREEMENT ON BRINGING THE SECOND LINE OF STORMS INTO SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA DURING THE 6PM TO 8PM TIME FRAME...WITH CONVECTION
QUICKLY SPREADING EAST THEREAFTER. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS WILL BE POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS AS THE DOWNDRAFTS PULL
THE STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS TO THE SURFACE. HAIL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE STRONGER CELLS...AS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN DUE TO THE UNUSUALLY HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM. DUE TO THE STRONG SHEAR PRESENTED BY THIS SYSTEM...
CANNOT EVEN RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO...ALTHOUGH BELIEVE THE
THREAT IS HIGHER WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS...OUTSIDE OUR FORECAST
AREA.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH DURING LATE EVENING
AS THE LINE PASSES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND BEGINS TO MOVE
DOWNSLOPE...ALTHOUGH SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN
THROUGH MIDNIGHT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT
WESTERLY EARLY MONDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION...LEAVING ONLY UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS.

AS MENTIONED BEFORE...CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS ARE ADDING TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF MANY ASPECTS OF THE FORECAST...INCLUDING AFTERNOON
HIGHS. HAVE UNDERCUT MAV/MET GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES...OPTING
FOR THE COOLER MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...

BY 12Z (8 AM EDT) MONDAY...THE DYNAMIC UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
HAVE LIFTED INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S. LEAVING A DEEP LOW LEVEL
NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE. FAIR PRESSURE RISES AND 40+ KT 850MB WINDS
SHOULD GENERATE GUSTY WINDS...BUT SPEEDS REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

RESIDUAL MOISTURE BELOW 4K FT SHOWN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS FORCED UP
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES...COMBINED WITH LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN
6.5 C/KM WILL HELP GENERATE UPSLOPE SHOWERS MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY
EVENING.

LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS MONDAY...HOWEVER...WITH
DOWNSLOPING WINDS...TEMPS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL STILL MANAGE
TO REACH WELL INTO THE 80S.

CHANCE FOR UPSLOPE SHOWERS DIMINISH TUESDAY AND UPSLOPE FLOW WEAKENS
AND LOW LEVEL DRYING CONTINUES.  AS THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE ALSO WEAKENS...COOLING TREND CONTINUES AND WENT SLIGHTLY
BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TUESDAY. ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL EASTERN U.S. TROF HELPS DEVELOP A WEAK SFC LOW ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS LATE TUESDAY. MODELS HINT THAT THIS MAY PRODUCE A WEAK
EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE FAR EAST AND PERHAPS BRING SOME CLOUDS TO
THIS REGION.  ACROSS THE WEST...HOWEVER...SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT TO DROP INTO THE 40S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A COLD FRONT WELL OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.
A 1020MB SURFACE HIGH OVER SE MO SHIFTS TO THE NE STATES THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. AT THE MID LEVELS...A RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
WESTERN US...WHILE A TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN US. VERY
LITTLE MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE ONLY
PLACE THAT MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEAK OUT A SHOWER OR TWO IS ACROSS THE
FAR SW...OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY. MOISTURE AND
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THUS
INCREASING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GREATEST CHANCE
POPS ARE ACROSS THE WEST WHERE THE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED.

850MB TEMPS OF +13-15C AND A PERSISTENT WEDGING EASTERLY WIND WILL
ALLOW SURFACE HIGH TEMPS TO BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THURSDAY
WILL BE THE COOLEST MORNING OF THE PERIOD WITH UPPER 40S POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOW TEMPS WILL
MODERATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE DEWPTS INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT SUNDAY...

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CREATING SPOTTY AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS THIS MORNING. THIS FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL
DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING. WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH IN THE NORTHWEST
NC MOUNTAINS AND FAR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.

WHILE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING...A
COMPLEX OF STORMS IN KENTUCKY WILL SPREAD MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER
THE REGION...AS WELL AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY
IN NW NORTH CAROLINA.

THE GREATEST THREAT TO AVIATORS TODAY WILL BE YET ANOTHER COMPLEX
OF STORMS THAT WILL ENTER OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.THERE STILL IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER REMAINS FROM
THE MORNING CONVECTION.

REGARDLESS...WITH AN IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELD ALOFT...CONFIDENCE IS
GROWING THAT THIS LARGE COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL IMPACT OUR AREA AND
MANY TAF SITES...BUT MOST LIKELY KBLF...KLWB...KBCB AND KROA.
AS A RESULT...INTRODUCED THUNDER WITH PROB30 OF WIND GUSTS TO
30-40KTS. IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED WITH THIS
COMPLEX.

A COLD FRONT PASSES TONIGHT...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS...BUT GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THREAT OF SUB VFR THROUGH MONDAY EXPECTED ACROSS SE WEST VA PER
NW FLOW...BUT LESS ELSEWHERE GIVEN DOWNSLOPE.

DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FOR TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WILL BRING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT LATE NIGHT FOG KBCB/KLWB BUT LOW
LVLS MAY STAY DRY ENOUGH FOR LESS FOG COVERAGE.

VARIABLE CIGS EXPECTED UNDER ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK. A FEW -SHRA NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS
EASTERN WV...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. TYPICAL FOG
POTENTIAL LESS THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK BECAUSE OF TURBULENT MIXING AND PREVAILING CYCLONIC FLOW.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE UPPER LOW RETROGRADES JUST
WEST OF THE REGION...INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA...
ESPECIALLY IN THE FRI-SUN TIME FRAME.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...NF/PH/RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 271126
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
726 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION THIS MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ALONG THE
APPALACHIAN CHAIN. ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
APPROACH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE MIDWEST...TRIGGERING
STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS EVENING. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY...
RESULTING IN COOLER WEATHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT SUNDAY...

SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES
OVERHEAD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AROUND A HALF INCH
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...WITH AMOUNTS TAPERING DOWN TO A
FEW HUNDREDTHS FURTHER EAST. IN ADDITION TO THE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY
AFFECTING OUR AREA...ALSO KEEPING AN EYE ON TWO OTHER AREAS OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ONE ENTERING WESTERN KENTUCKY AND ANOTHER
OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS.

RAPID UPDATE FORECAST MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY WILL SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST...
PUSHING INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS LATE MORNING TO AROUND
NOON. WHILE THE DISTURBANCE TRIGGERING THESE STORMS MAY REMAIN
STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...
WONDERING IF THE CLOUD COVER IT PRODUCES WILL ALSO LIMIT
INSTABILITY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460 DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
THE SECOND...MORE POTENT DISTURBANCE PUSHES EAST ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER.

THE SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL BRING WITH IT AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
MID LEVEL WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 50KT TO 60KT. WITH CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED TO BE MORE DIMINISHED HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 460...EXPECT GREATER INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA. MODELS ARE
IN AGREEMENT ON BRINGING THE SECOND LINE OF STORMS INTO SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA DURING THE 6PM TO 8PM TIME FRAME...WITH CONVECTION
QUICKLY SPREADING EAST THEREAFTER. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS WILL BE POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS AS THE DOWNDRAFTS PULL
THE STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS TO THE SURFACE. HAIL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE STRONGER CELLS...AS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN DUE TO THE UNUSUALLY HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM. DUE TO THE STRONG SHEAR PRESENTED BY THIS SYSTEM...
CANNOT EVEN RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO...ALTHOUGH BELIEVE THE
THREAT IS HIGHER WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS...OUTSIDE OUR FORECAST
AREA.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH DURING LATE EVENING
AS THE LINE PASSES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND BEGINS TO MOVE
DOWNSLOPE...ALTHOUGH SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN
THROUGH MIDNIGHT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT
WESTERLY EARLY MONDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION...LEAVING ONLY UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS.

AS MENTIONED BEFORE...CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS ARE ADDING TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF MANY ASPECTS OF THE FORECAST...INCLUDING AFTERNOON
HIGHS. HAVE UNDERCUT MAV/MET GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES...OPTING
FOR THE COOLER MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...

BY 12Z (8 AM EDT) MONDAY...THE DYNAMIC UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
HAVE LIFTED INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S. LEAVING A DEEP LOW LEVEL
NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE. FAIR PRESSURE RISES AND 40+ KT 850MB WINDS
SHOULD GENERATE GUSTY WINDS...BUT SPEEDS REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

RESIDUAL MOISTURE BELOW 4K FT SHOWN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS FORCED UP
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES...COMBINED WITH LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN
6.5 C/KM WILL HELP GENERATE UPSLOPE SHOWERS MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY
EVENING.

LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS MONDAY...HOWEVER...WITH
DOWNSLOPING WINDS...TEMPS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL STILL MANAGE
TO REACH WELL INTO THE 80S.

CHANCE FOR UPSLOPE SHOWERS DIMINISH TUESDAY AND UPSLOPE FLOW WEAKENS
AND LOW LEVEL DRYING CONTINUES.  AS THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE ALSO WEAKENS...COOLING TREND CONTINUES AND WENT SLIGHTLY
BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TUESDAY. ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL EASTERN U.S. TROF HELPS DEVELOP A WEAK SFC LOW ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS LATE TUESDAY. MODELS HINT THAT THIS MAY PRODUCE A WEAK
EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE FAR EAST AND PERHAPS BRING SOME CLOUDS TO
THIS REGION.  ACROSS THE WEST...HOWEVER...SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT TO DROP INTO THE 40S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A COLD FRONT WELL OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.
A 1020MB SURFACE HIGH OVER SE MO SHIFTS TO THE NE STATES THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. AT THE MID LEVELS...A RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
WESTERN US...WHILE A TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN US. VERY
LITTLE MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE ONLY
PLACE THAT MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEAK OUT A SHOWER OR TWO IS ACROSS THE
FAR SW...OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY. MOISTURE AND
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THUS
INCREASING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GREATEST CHANCE
POPS ARE ACROSS THE WEST WHERE THE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED.

850MB TEMPS OF +13-15C AND A PERSISTENT WEDGING EASTERLY WIND WILL
ALLOW SURFACE HIGH TEMPS TO BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THURSDAY
WILL BE THE COOLEST MORNING OF THE PERIOD WITH UPPER 40S POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOW TEMPS WILL
MODERATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE DEWPTS INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT SUNDAY...

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CREATING SPOTTY AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS THIS MORNING. THIS FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL
DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING. WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH IN THE NORTHWEST
NC MOUNTAINS AND FAR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.

WHILE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING...A
COMPLEX OF STORMS IN KENTUCKY WILL SPREAD MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER
THE REGION...AS WELL AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY
IN NW NORTH CAROLINA.

THE GREATEST THREAT TO AVIATORS TODAY WILL BE YET ANOTHER COMPLEX
OF STORMS THAT WILL ENTER OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.THERE STILL IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER REMAINS FROM
THE MORNING CONVECTION.

REGARDLESS...WITH AN IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELD ALOFT...CONFIDENCE IS
GROWING THAT THIS LARGE COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL IMPACT OUR AREA AND
MANY TAF SITES...BUT MOST LIKELY KBLF...KLWB...KBCB AND KROA.
AS A RESULT...INTRODUCED THUNDER WITH PROB30 OF WIND GUSTS TO
30-40KTS. IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED WITH THIS
COMPLEX.

A COLD FRONT PASSES TONIGHT...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS...BUT GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THREAT OF SUB VFR THROUGH MONDAY EXPECTED ACROSS SE WEST VA PER
NW FLOW...BUT LESS ELSEWHERE GIVEN DOWNSLOPE.

DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FOR TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WILL BRING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT LATE NIGHT FOG KBCB/KLWB BUT LOW
LVLS MAY STAY DRY ENOUGH FOR LESS FOG COVERAGE.

VARIABLE CIGS EXPECTED UNDER ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK. A FEW -SHRA NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS
EASTERN WV...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. TYPICAL FOG
POTENTIAL LESS THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK BECAUSE OF TURBULENT MIXING AND PREVAILING CYCLONIC FLOW.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE UPPER LOW RETROGRADES JUST
WEST OF THE REGION...INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA...
ESPECIALLY IN THE FRI-SUN TIME FRAME.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...NF/PH/RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 270926
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
526 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION THIS MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ALONG THE
APPALACHIAN CHAIN. ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
APPROACH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE MIDWEST...TRIGGERING
STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS EVENING. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY...
RESULTING IN COOLER WEATHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT SUNDAY...

SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES
OVERHEAD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AROUND A HALF INCH
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...WITH AMOUNTS TAPERING DOWN TO A
FEW HUNDREDTHS FURTHER EAST. IN ADDITION TO THE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY
AFFECTING OUR AREA...ALSO KEEPING AN EYE ON TWO OTHER AREAS OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ONE ENTERING WESTERN KENTUCKY AND ANOTHER
OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS.

RAPID UPDATE FORECAST MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY WILL SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST...
PUSHING INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS LATE MORNING TO AROUND
NOON. WHILE THE DISTURBANCE TRIGGERING THESE STORMS MAY REMAIN
STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...
WONDERING IF THE CLOUD COVER IT PRODUCES WILL ALSO LIMIT
INSTABILITY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460 DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
THE SECOND...MORE POTENT DISTURBANCE PUSHES EAST ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER.

THE SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL BRING WITH IT AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
MID LEVEL WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 50KT TO 60KT. WITH CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED TO BE MORE DIMINISHED HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 460...EXPECT GREATER INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA. MODELS ARE
IN AGREEMENT ON BRINGING THE SECOND LINE OF STORMS INTO SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA DURING THE 6PM TO 8PM TIME FRAME...WITH CONVECTION
QUICKLY SPREADING EAST THEREAFTER. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS WILL BE POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS AS THE DOWNDRAFTS PULL
THE STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS TO THE SURFACE. HAIL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE STRONGER CELLS...AS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN DUE TO THE UNUSUALLY HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM. DUE TO THE STRONG SHEAR PRESENTED BY THIS SYSTEM...
CANNOT EVEN RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO...ALTHOUGH BELIEVE THE
THREAT IS HIGHER WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS...OUTSIDE OUR FORECAST
AREA.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH DURING LATE EVENING
AS THE LINE PASSES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND BEGINS TO MOVE
DOWNSLOPE...ALTHOUGH SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN
THROUGH MIDNIGHT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT
WESTERLY EARLY MONDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION...LEAVING ONLY UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS.

AS MENTIONED BEFORE...CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS ARE ADDING TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF MANY ASPECTS OF THE FORECAST...INCLUDING AFTERNOON
HIGHS. HAVE UNDERCUT MAV/MET GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES...OPTING
FOR THE COOLER MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...

BY 12Z (8 AM EDT) MONDAY...THE DYNAMIC UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
HAVE LIFTED INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S. LEAVING A DEEP LOW LEVEL
NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE. FAIR PRESSURE RISES AND 40+ KT 850MB WINDS
SHOULD GENERATE GUSTY WINDS...BUT SPEEDS REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

RESIDUAL MOISTURE BELOW 4K FT SHOWN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS FORCED UP
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES...COMBINED WITH LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN
6.5 C/KM WILL HELP GENERATE UPSLOPE SHOWERS MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY
EVENING.

LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS MONDAY...HOWEVER...WITH
DOWNSLOPING WINDS...TEMPS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL STILL MANAGE
TO REACH WELL INTO THE 80S.

CHANCE FOR UPSLOPE SHOWERS DIMINISH TUESDAY AND UPSLOPE FLOW WEAKENS
AND LOW LEVEL DRYING CONTINUES.  AS THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE ALSO WEAKENS...COOLING TREND CONTINUES AND WENT SLIGHTLY
BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TUESDAY. ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL EASTERN U.S. TROF HELPS DEVELOP A WEAK SFC LOW ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS LATE TUESDAY. MODELS HINT THAT THIS MAY PRODUCE A WEAK
EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE FAR EAST AND PERHAPS BRING SOME CLOUDS TO
THIS REGION.  ACROSS THE WEST...HOWEVER...SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT TO DROP INTO THE 40S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A COLD FRONT WELL OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.
A 1020MB SURFACE HIGH OVER SE MO SHIFTS TO THE NE STATES THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. AT THE MID LEVELS...A RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
WESTERN US...WHILE A TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN US. VERY
LITTLE MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE ONLY
PLACE THAT MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEAK OUT A SHOWER OR TWO IS ACROSS THE
FAR SW...OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY. MOISTURE AND
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THUS
INCREASING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GREATEST CHANCE
POPS ARE ACROSS THE WEST WHERE THE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED.

850MB TEMPS OF +13-15C AND A PERSISTENT WEDGING EASTERLY WIND WILL
ALLOW SURFACE HIGH TEMPS TO BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THURSDAY
WILL BE THE COOLEST MORNING OF THE PERIOD WITH UPPER 40S POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOW TEMPS WILL
MODERATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE DEWPTS INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT SUNDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO ENTER
THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES
OVERHEAD. TRENDS SINCE MIDNIGHT HAVE INDICATED WEAKENING OF THE
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER KY EVEN AS NEW SHOWERS DEVELOP AS THE
ENERGY ENCOUNTERS THE OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN
FURTHER NORTH. WITH DECREASING INSTABILITY DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...BELIEVE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
WEAK...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES.
CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY VFR IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

ONCE CONVECTION OVER KENTUCKY EXITS...MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN IN/WESTERN KY THIS MORNING TO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON. UNSURE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
WILL BE IN PLACE BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL DEPEND ON HOW
MUCH CLOUD COVER REMAINS FROM THE MORNING. CONSIDERING THE
STRENGTHENING WEST WIND DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL HELP KEEP
A LID ON CONVECTION...HAVE SHOWERS IN THE TAFS FOR NOW.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE EVENING...WHEN ANOTHER STRONGER
DISTURBANCE WILL ARRIVE...BRINGING 50KT TO 55KT MID LEVEL WINDS.
BELIEVE STORMS WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL ARRIVE IN SOUTHEAST WV
AT OR AROUND 28/00Z IN THE FORM OF A LINE...AND THEN PASS QUICKLY
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 28/03Z. HIGHEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND NORTHERN VA PIEDMONT...AFFECTING
KLWB/KLYH/KROA/KBCB/KBLF. BELIEVE THE STORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY
PASS THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE DOWNSLOPE WINDFLOW. STRONG WINDS WILL
BE THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS AS THEY PULL THE STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. CANNOT RULE OUT HAIL...AND HEAVY
RAIN WILL ALSO BE LIKELY WITH THE LINE...WHICH WILL PRODUCE IFR
VISIBILITIES FOR EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME. WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
QUIET DOWN TO RESIDUAL SHOWER ACTIVITY/ISOLATED STORMS AFTER
28/04Z AS THE MAIN ENERGY PASSES EAST.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...SO THREAT OF SUB VFR THROUGH MONDAY EXPECTED ACROSS SE
WEST VA PER NW FLOW...BUT LESS ELSEWHERE GIVEN DOWNSLOPE.

SOME GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LIKELY ESPCLY ALONG THE
RIDGES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FOR
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...AND MAINLY VFR. CANNOT RULE OUT LATE NIGHT
FOG KBCB/KLWB BUT LOW LVLS MAY STAY DRY ENOUGH FOR LESS FOG
COVERAGE.

VARIABLE CIGS EXPECTED UNDER ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK. A FEW -SHRA NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS
EASTERN WV...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. TYPICAL FOG
POTENTIAL LESS THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK BECAUSE OF TURBULENT MIXING AND PREVAILING CYCLONIC FLOW.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE UPPER LOW RETROGRADES JUST
WEST OF THE REGION...INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA...
ESPECIALLY IN THE FRI-SUN TIME FRAME.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...NF/RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 270926
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
526 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION THIS MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ALONG THE
APPALACHIAN CHAIN. ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
APPROACH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE MIDWEST...TRIGGERING
STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS EVENING. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY...
RESULTING IN COOLER WEATHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT SUNDAY...

SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES
OVERHEAD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AROUND A HALF INCH
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...WITH AMOUNTS TAPERING DOWN TO A
FEW HUNDREDTHS FURTHER EAST. IN ADDITION TO THE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY
AFFECTING OUR AREA...ALSO KEEPING AN EYE ON TWO OTHER AREAS OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ONE ENTERING WESTERN KENTUCKY AND ANOTHER
OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS.

RAPID UPDATE FORECAST MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY WILL SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST...
PUSHING INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS LATE MORNING TO AROUND
NOON. WHILE THE DISTURBANCE TRIGGERING THESE STORMS MAY REMAIN
STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...
WONDERING IF THE CLOUD COVER IT PRODUCES WILL ALSO LIMIT
INSTABILITY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460 DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
THE SECOND...MORE POTENT DISTURBANCE PUSHES EAST ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER.

THE SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL BRING WITH IT AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
MID LEVEL WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 50KT TO 60KT. WITH CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED TO BE MORE DIMINISHED HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 460...EXPECT GREATER INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA. MODELS ARE
IN AGREEMENT ON BRINGING THE SECOND LINE OF STORMS INTO SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA DURING THE 6PM TO 8PM TIME FRAME...WITH CONVECTION
QUICKLY SPREADING EAST THEREAFTER. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS WILL BE POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS AS THE DOWNDRAFTS PULL
THE STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS TO THE SURFACE. HAIL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE STRONGER CELLS...AS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN DUE TO THE UNUSUALLY HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM. DUE TO THE STRONG SHEAR PRESENTED BY THIS SYSTEM...
CANNOT EVEN RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO...ALTHOUGH BELIEVE THE
THREAT IS HIGHER WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS...OUTSIDE OUR FORECAST
AREA.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH DURING LATE EVENING
AS THE LINE PASSES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND BEGINS TO MOVE
DOWNSLOPE...ALTHOUGH SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN
THROUGH MIDNIGHT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT
WESTERLY EARLY MONDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION...LEAVING ONLY UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS.

AS MENTIONED BEFORE...CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS ARE ADDING TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF MANY ASPECTS OF THE FORECAST...INCLUDING AFTERNOON
HIGHS. HAVE UNDERCUT MAV/MET GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES...OPTING
FOR THE COOLER MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...

BY 12Z (8 AM EDT) MONDAY...THE DYNAMIC UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
HAVE LIFTED INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S. LEAVING A DEEP LOW LEVEL
NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE. FAIR PRESSURE RISES AND 40+ KT 850MB WINDS
SHOULD GENERATE GUSTY WINDS...BUT SPEEDS REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

RESIDUAL MOISTURE BELOW 4K FT SHOWN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS FORCED UP
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES...COMBINED WITH LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN
6.5 C/KM WILL HELP GENERATE UPSLOPE SHOWERS MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY
EVENING.

LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS MONDAY...HOWEVER...WITH
DOWNSLOPING WINDS...TEMPS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL STILL MANAGE
TO REACH WELL INTO THE 80S.

CHANCE FOR UPSLOPE SHOWERS DIMINISH TUESDAY AND UPSLOPE FLOW WEAKENS
AND LOW LEVEL DRYING CONTINUES.  AS THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE ALSO WEAKENS...COOLING TREND CONTINUES AND WENT SLIGHTLY
BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TUESDAY. ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL EASTERN U.S. TROF HELPS DEVELOP A WEAK SFC LOW ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS LATE TUESDAY. MODELS HINT THAT THIS MAY PRODUCE A WEAK
EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE FAR EAST AND PERHAPS BRING SOME CLOUDS TO
THIS REGION.  ACROSS THE WEST...HOWEVER...SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT TO DROP INTO THE 40S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A COLD FRONT WELL OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.
A 1020MB SURFACE HIGH OVER SE MO SHIFTS TO THE NE STATES THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. AT THE MID LEVELS...A RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
WESTERN US...WHILE A TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN US. VERY
LITTLE MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE ONLY
PLACE THAT MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEAK OUT A SHOWER OR TWO IS ACROSS THE
FAR SW...OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY. MOISTURE AND
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THUS
INCREASING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GREATEST CHANCE
POPS ARE ACROSS THE WEST WHERE THE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED.

850MB TEMPS OF +13-15C AND A PERSISTENT WEDGING EASTERLY WIND WILL
ALLOW SURFACE HIGH TEMPS TO BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THURSDAY
WILL BE THE COOLEST MORNING OF THE PERIOD WITH UPPER 40S POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOW TEMPS WILL
MODERATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE DEWPTS INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT SUNDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO ENTER
THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES
OVERHEAD. TRENDS SINCE MIDNIGHT HAVE INDICATED WEAKENING OF THE
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER KY EVEN AS NEW SHOWERS DEVELOP AS THE
ENERGY ENCOUNTERS THE OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN
FURTHER NORTH. WITH DECREASING INSTABILITY DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...BELIEVE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
WEAK...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES.
CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY VFR IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

ONCE CONVECTION OVER KENTUCKY EXITS...MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN IN/WESTERN KY THIS MORNING TO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON. UNSURE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
WILL BE IN PLACE BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL DEPEND ON HOW
MUCH CLOUD COVER REMAINS FROM THE MORNING. CONSIDERING THE
STRENGTHENING WEST WIND DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL HELP KEEP
A LID ON CONVECTION...HAVE SHOWERS IN THE TAFS FOR NOW.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE EVENING...WHEN ANOTHER STRONGER
DISTURBANCE WILL ARRIVE...BRINGING 50KT TO 55KT MID LEVEL WINDS.
BELIEVE STORMS WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL ARRIVE IN SOUTHEAST WV
AT OR AROUND 28/00Z IN THE FORM OF A LINE...AND THEN PASS QUICKLY
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 28/03Z. HIGHEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND NORTHERN VA PIEDMONT...AFFECTING
KLWB/KLYH/KROA/KBCB/KBLF. BELIEVE THE STORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY
PASS THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE DOWNSLOPE WINDFLOW. STRONG WINDS WILL
BE THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS AS THEY PULL THE STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. CANNOT RULE OUT HAIL...AND HEAVY
RAIN WILL ALSO BE LIKELY WITH THE LINE...WHICH WILL PRODUCE IFR
VISIBILITIES FOR EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME. WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
QUIET DOWN TO RESIDUAL SHOWER ACTIVITY/ISOLATED STORMS AFTER
28/04Z AS THE MAIN ENERGY PASSES EAST.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...SO THREAT OF SUB VFR THROUGH MONDAY EXPECTED ACROSS SE
WEST VA PER NW FLOW...BUT LESS ELSEWHERE GIVEN DOWNSLOPE.

SOME GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LIKELY ESPCLY ALONG THE
RIDGES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FOR
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...AND MAINLY VFR. CANNOT RULE OUT LATE NIGHT
FOG KBCB/KLWB BUT LOW LVLS MAY STAY DRY ENOUGH FOR LESS FOG
COVERAGE.

VARIABLE CIGS EXPECTED UNDER ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK. A FEW -SHRA NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS
EASTERN WV...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. TYPICAL FOG
POTENTIAL LESS THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK BECAUSE OF TURBULENT MIXING AND PREVAILING CYCLONIC FLOW.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE UPPER LOW RETROGRADES JUST
WEST OF THE REGION...INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA...
ESPECIALLY IN THE FRI-SUN TIME FRAME.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...NF/RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 270926
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
526 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION THIS MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ALONG THE
APPALACHIAN CHAIN. ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
APPROACH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE MIDWEST...TRIGGERING
STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS EVENING. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY...
RESULTING IN COOLER WEATHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT SUNDAY...

SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES
OVERHEAD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AROUND A HALF INCH
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...WITH AMOUNTS TAPERING DOWN TO A
FEW HUNDREDTHS FURTHER EAST. IN ADDITION TO THE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY
AFFECTING OUR AREA...ALSO KEEPING AN EYE ON TWO OTHER AREAS OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ONE ENTERING WESTERN KENTUCKY AND ANOTHER
OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS.

RAPID UPDATE FORECAST MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY WILL SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST...
PUSHING INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS LATE MORNING TO AROUND
NOON. WHILE THE DISTURBANCE TRIGGERING THESE STORMS MAY REMAIN
STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...
WONDERING IF THE CLOUD COVER IT PRODUCES WILL ALSO LIMIT
INSTABILITY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460 DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
THE SECOND...MORE POTENT DISTURBANCE PUSHES EAST ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER.

THE SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL BRING WITH IT AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
MID LEVEL WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 50KT TO 60KT. WITH CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED TO BE MORE DIMINISHED HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 460...EXPECT GREATER INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA. MODELS ARE
IN AGREEMENT ON BRINGING THE SECOND LINE OF STORMS INTO SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA DURING THE 6PM TO 8PM TIME FRAME...WITH CONVECTION
QUICKLY SPREADING EAST THEREAFTER. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS WILL BE POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS AS THE DOWNDRAFTS PULL
THE STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS TO THE SURFACE. HAIL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE STRONGER CELLS...AS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN DUE TO THE UNUSUALLY HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM. DUE TO THE STRONG SHEAR PRESENTED BY THIS SYSTEM...
CANNOT EVEN RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO...ALTHOUGH BELIEVE THE
THREAT IS HIGHER WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS...OUTSIDE OUR FORECAST
AREA.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH DURING LATE EVENING
AS THE LINE PASSES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND BEGINS TO MOVE
DOWNSLOPE...ALTHOUGH SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN
THROUGH MIDNIGHT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT
WESTERLY EARLY MONDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION...LEAVING ONLY UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS.

AS MENTIONED BEFORE...CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS ARE ADDING TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF MANY ASPECTS OF THE FORECAST...INCLUDING AFTERNOON
HIGHS. HAVE UNDERCUT MAV/MET GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES...OPTING
FOR THE COOLER MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...

BY 12Z (8 AM EDT) MONDAY...THE DYNAMIC UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
HAVE LIFTED INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S. LEAVING A DEEP LOW LEVEL
NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE. FAIR PRESSURE RISES AND 40+ KT 850MB WINDS
SHOULD GENERATE GUSTY WINDS...BUT SPEEDS REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

RESIDUAL MOISTURE BELOW 4K FT SHOWN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS FORCED UP
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES...COMBINED WITH LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN
6.5 C/KM WILL HELP GENERATE UPSLOPE SHOWERS MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY
EVENING.

LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS MONDAY...HOWEVER...WITH
DOWNSLOPING WINDS...TEMPS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL STILL MANAGE
TO REACH WELL INTO THE 80S.

CHANCE FOR UPSLOPE SHOWERS DIMINISH TUESDAY AND UPSLOPE FLOW WEAKENS
AND LOW LEVEL DRYING CONTINUES.  AS THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE ALSO WEAKENS...COOLING TREND CONTINUES AND WENT SLIGHTLY
BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TUESDAY. ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL EASTERN U.S. TROF HELPS DEVELOP A WEAK SFC LOW ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS LATE TUESDAY. MODELS HINT THAT THIS MAY PRODUCE A WEAK
EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE FAR EAST AND PERHAPS BRING SOME CLOUDS TO
THIS REGION.  ACROSS THE WEST...HOWEVER...SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT TO DROP INTO THE 40S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A COLD FRONT WELL OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.
A 1020MB SURFACE HIGH OVER SE MO SHIFTS TO THE NE STATES THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. AT THE MID LEVELS...A RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
WESTERN US...WHILE A TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN US. VERY
LITTLE MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE ONLY
PLACE THAT MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEAK OUT A SHOWER OR TWO IS ACROSS THE
FAR SW...OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY. MOISTURE AND
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THUS
INCREASING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GREATEST CHANCE
POPS ARE ACROSS THE WEST WHERE THE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED.

850MB TEMPS OF +13-15C AND A PERSISTENT WEDGING EASTERLY WIND WILL
ALLOW SURFACE HIGH TEMPS TO BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THURSDAY
WILL BE THE COOLEST MORNING OF THE PERIOD WITH UPPER 40S POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOW TEMPS WILL
MODERATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE DEWPTS INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT SUNDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO ENTER
THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES
OVERHEAD. TRENDS SINCE MIDNIGHT HAVE INDICATED WEAKENING OF THE
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER KY EVEN AS NEW SHOWERS DEVELOP AS THE
ENERGY ENCOUNTERS THE OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN
FURTHER NORTH. WITH DECREASING INSTABILITY DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...BELIEVE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
WEAK...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES.
CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY VFR IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

ONCE CONVECTION OVER KENTUCKY EXITS...MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN IN/WESTERN KY THIS MORNING TO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON. UNSURE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
WILL BE IN PLACE BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL DEPEND ON HOW
MUCH CLOUD COVER REMAINS FROM THE MORNING. CONSIDERING THE
STRENGTHENING WEST WIND DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL HELP KEEP
A LID ON CONVECTION...HAVE SHOWERS IN THE TAFS FOR NOW.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE EVENING...WHEN ANOTHER STRONGER
DISTURBANCE WILL ARRIVE...BRINGING 50KT TO 55KT MID LEVEL WINDS.
BELIEVE STORMS WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL ARRIVE IN SOUTHEAST WV
AT OR AROUND 28/00Z IN THE FORM OF A LINE...AND THEN PASS QUICKLY
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 28/03Z. HIGHEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND NORTHERN VA PIEDMONT...AFFECTING
KLWB/KLYH/KROA/KBCB/KBLF. BELIEVE THE STORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY
PASS THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE DOWNSLOPE WINDFLOW. STRONG WINDS WILL
BE THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS AS THEY PULL THE STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. CANNOT RULE OUT HAIL...AND HEAVY
RAIN WILL ALSO BE LIKELY WITH THE LINE...WHICH WILL PRODUCE IFR
VISIBILITIES FOR EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME. WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
QUIET DOWN TO RESIDUAL SHOWER ACTIVITY/ISOLATED STORMS AFTER
28/04Z AS THE MAIN ENERGY PASSES EAST.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...SO THREAT OF SUB VFR THROUGH MONDAY EXPECTED ACROSS SE
WEST VA PER NW FLOW...BUT LESS ELSEWHERE GIVEN DOWNSLOPE.

SOME GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LIKELY ESPCLY ALONG THE
RIDGES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FOR
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...AND MAINLY VFR. CANNOT RULE OUT LATE NIGHT
FOG KBCB/KLWB BUT LOW LVLS MAY STAY DRY ENOUGH FOR LESS FOG
COVERAGE.

VARIABLE CIGS EXPECTED UNDER ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK. A FEW -SHRA NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS
EASTERN WV...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. TYPICAL FOG
POTENTIAL LESS THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK BECAUSE OF TURBULENT MIXING AND PREVAILING CYCLONIC FLOW.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE UPPER LOW RETROGRADES JUST
WEST OF THE REGION...INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA...
ESPECIALLY IN THE FRI-SUN TIME FRAME.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...NF/RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 270926
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
526 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION THIS MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ALONG THE
APPALACHIAN CHAIN. ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
APPROACH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE MIDWEST...TRIGGERING
STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS EVENING. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY...
RESULTING IN COOLER WEATHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT SUNDAY...

SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES
OVERHEAD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AROUND A HALF INCH
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...WITH AMOUNTS TAPERING DOWN TO A
FEW HUNDREDTHS FURTHER EAST. IN ADDITION TO THE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY
AFFECTING OUR AREA...ALSO KEEPING AN EYE ON TWO OTHER AREAS OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ONE ENTERING WESTERN KENTUCKY AND ANOTHER
OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS.

RAPID UPDATE FORECAST MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY WILL SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST...
PUSHING INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS LATE MORNING TO AROUND
NOON. WHILE THE DISTURBANCE TRIGGERING THESE STORMS MAY REMAIN
STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...
WONDERING IF THE CLOUD COVER IT PRODUCES WILL ALSO LIMIT
INSTABILITY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460 DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
THE SECOND...MORE POTENT DISTURBANCE PUSHES EAST ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER.

THE SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL BRING WITH IT AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
MID LEVEL WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 50KT TO 60KT. WITH CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED TO BE MORE DIMINISHED HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 460...EXPECT GREATER INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA. MODELS ARE
IN AGREEMENT ON BRINGING THE SECOND LINE OF STORMS INTO SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA DURING THE 6PM TO 8PM TIME FRAME...WITH CONVECTION
QUICKLY SPREADING EAST THEREAFTER. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS WILL BE POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS AS THE DOWNDRAFTS PULL
THE STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS TO THE SURFACE. HAIL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE STRONGER CELLS...AS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN DUE TO THE UNUSUALLY HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM. DUE TO THE STRONG SHEAR PRESENTED BY THIS SYSTEM...
CANNOT EVEN RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO...ALTHOUGH BELIEVE THE
THREAT IS HIGHER WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS...OUTSIDE OUR FORECAST
AREA.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH DURING LATE EVENING
AS THE LINE PASSES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND BEGINS TO MOVE
DOWNSLOPE...ALTHOUGH SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN
THROUGH MIDNIGHT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT
WESTERLY EARLY MONDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION...LEAVING ONLY UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS.

AS MENTIONED BEFORE...CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS ARE ADDING TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF MANY ASPECTS OF THE FORECAST...INCLUDING AFTERNOON
HIGHS. HAVE UNDERCUT MAV/MET GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES...OPTING
FOR THE COOLER MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...

BY 12Z (8 AM EDT) MONDAY...THE DYNAMIC UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
HAVE LIFTED INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S. LEAVING A DEEP LOW LEVEL
NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE. FAIR PRESSURE RISES AND 40+ KT 850MB WINDS
SHOULD GENERATE GUSTY WINDS...BUT SPEEDS REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

RESIDUAL MOISTURE BELOW 4K FT SHOWN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS FORCED UP
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES...COMBINED WITH LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN
6.5 C/KM WILL HELP GENERATE UPSLOPE SHOWERS MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY
EVENING.

LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS MONDAY...HOWEVER...WITH
DOWNSLOPING WINDS...TEMPS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL STILL MANAGE
TO REACH WELL INTO THE 80S.

CHANCE FOR UPSLOPE SHOWERS DIMINISH TUESDAY AND UPSLOPE FLOW WEAKENS
AND LOW LEVEL DRYING CONTINUES.  AS THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE ALSO WEAKENS...COOLING TREND CONTINUES AND WENT SLIGHTLY
BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TUESDAY. ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL EASTERN U.S. TROF HELPS DEVELOP A WEAK SFC LOW ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS LATE TUESDAY. MODELS HINT THAT THIS MAY PRODUCE A WEAK
EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE FAR EAST AND PERHAPS BRING SOME CLOUDS TO
THIS REGION.  ACROSS THE WEST...HOWEVER...SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT TO DROP INTO THE 40S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A COLD FRONT WELL OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.
A 1020MB SURFACE HIGH OVER SE MO SHIFTS TO THE NE STATES THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. AT THE MID LEVELS...A RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
WESTERN US...WHILE A TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN US. VERY
LITTLE MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE ONLY
PLACE THAT MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEAK OUT A SHOWER OR TWO IS ACROSS THE
FAR SW...OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY. MOISTURE AND
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THUS
INCREASING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GREATEST CHANCE
POPS ARE ACROSS THE WEST WHERE THE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED.

850MB TEMPS OF +13-15C AND A PERSISTENT WEDGING EASTERLY WIND WILL
ALLOW SURFACE HIGH TEMPS TO BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THURSDAY
WILL BE THE COOLEST MORNING OF THE PERIOD WITH UPPER 40S POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOW TEMPS WILL
MODERATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE DEWPTS INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT SUNDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO ENTER
THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES
OVERHEAD. TRENDS SINCE MIDNIGHT HAVE INDICATED WEAKENING OF THE
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER KY EVEN AS NEW SHOWERS DEVELOP AS THE
ENERGY ENCOUNTERS THE OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN
FURTHER NORTH. WITH DECREASING INSTABILITY DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...BELIEVE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
WEAK...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES.
CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY VFR IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

ONCE CONVECTION OVER KENTUCKY EXITS...MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN IN/WESTERN KY THIS MORNING TO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON. UNSURE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
WILL BE IN PLACE BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL DEPEND ON HOW
MUCH CLOUD COVER REMAINS FROM THE MORNING. CONSIDERING THE
STRENGTHENING WEST WIND DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL HELP KEEP
A LID ON CONVECTION...HAVE SHOWERS IN THE TAFS FOR NOW.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE EVENING...WHEN ANOTHER STRONGER
DISTURBANCE WILL ARRIVE...BRINGING 50KT TO 55KT MID LEVEL WINDS.
BELIEVE STORMS WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL ARRIVE IN SOUTHEAST WV
AT OR AROUND 28/00Z IN THE FORM OF A LINE...AND THEN PASS QUICKLY
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 28/03Z. HIGHEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND NORTHERN VA PIEDMONT...AFFECTING
KLWB/KLYH/KROA/KBCB/KBLF. BELIEVE THE STORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY
PASS THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE DOWNSLOPE WINDFLOW. STRONG WINDS WILL
BE THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS AS THEY PULL THE STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. CANNOT RULE OUT HAIL...AND HEAVY
RAIN WILL ALSO BE LIKELY WITH THE LINE...WHICH WILL PRODUCE IFR
VISIBILITIES FOR EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME. WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
QUIET DOWN TO RESIDUAL SHOWER ACTIVITY/ISOLATED STORMS AFTER
28/04Z AS THE MAIN ENERGY PASSES EAST.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...SO THREAT OF SUB VFR THROUGH MONDAY EXPECTED ACROSS SE
WEST VA PER NW FLOW...BUT LESS ELSEWHERE GIVEN DOWNSLOPE.

SOME GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LIKELY ESPCLY ALONG THE
RIDGES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FOR
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...AND MAINLY VFR. CANNOT RULE OUT LATE NIGHT
FOG KBCB/KLWB BUT LOW LVLS MAY STAY DRY ENOUGH FOR LESS FOG
COVERAGE.

VARIABLE CIGS EXPECTED UNDER ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK. A FEW -SHRA NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS
EASTERN WV...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. TYPICAL FOG
POTENTIAL LESS THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK BECAUSE OF TURBULENT MIXING AND PREVAILING CYCLONIC FLOW.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE UPPER LOW RETROGRADES JUST
WEST OF THE REGION...INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA...
ESPECIALLY IN THE FRI-SUN TIME FRAME.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...NF/RAB




000
FXUS61 KRNK 270920
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
520 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH THIS FEATURE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MIDWEST THIS EVENING AND SPREAD EAST
TOWARD OUR AREA BY EARLY SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH COOLER
WEATHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT SUNDAY...

SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES
OVERHEAD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AROUND A HALF INCH
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...WITH AMOUNTS TAPERING DOWN TO A
FEW HUNDREDTHS FURTHER EAST. IN ADDITION TO THE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY
AFFECTING OUR AREA...ALSO KEEPING AN EYE ON TWO OTHER AREAS OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ONE ENTERING WESTERN KENTUCKY AND ANOTHER
OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS.

RAPID UPDATE FORECAST MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY WILL SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST...
PUSHING INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS LATE MORNING TO AROUND
NOON. WHILE THE DISTURBANCE TRIGGERING THESE STORMS MAY REMAIN
STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...
WONDERING IF THE CLOUD COVER IT PRODUCES WILL ALSO LIMIT
INSTABILITY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460 DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
THE SECOND...MORE POTENT DISTURBANCE PUSHES EAST ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER.

THE SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL BRING WITH IT AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
MID LEVEL WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 50KT TO 60KT. WITH CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED TO BE MORE DIMINISHED HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 460...EXPECT GREATER INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA. MODELS ARE
IN AGREEMENT ON BRINGING THE SECOND LINE OF STORMS INTO SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA DURING THE 6PM TO 8PM TIME FRAME...WITH CONVECTION
QUICKLY SPREADING EAST THEREAFTER. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS WILL BE POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS AS THE DOWNDRAFTS PULL
THE STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS TO THE SURFACE. HAIL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE STRONGER CELLS...AS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN DUE TO THE UNUSUALLY HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM. DUE TO THE STRONG SHEAR PRESENTED BY THIS SYSTEM...
CANNOT EVEN RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO...ALTHOUGH BELIEVE THE
THREAT IS HIGHER WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS...OUTSIDE OUR FORECAST
AREA.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH DURING LATE EVENING
AS THE LINE PASSES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND BEGINS TO MOVE
DOWNSLOPE...ALTHOUGH SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN
THROUGH MIDNIGHT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT
WESTERLY EARLY MONDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION...LEAVING ONLY UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS.

AS MENTIONED BEFORE...CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS ARE ADDING TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF MANY ASPECTS OF THE FORECAST...INCLUDING AFTERNOON
HIGHS. HAVE UNDERCUT MAV/MET GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES...OPTING
FOR THE COOLER MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...

BY 12Z (8 AM EDT) MONDAY...THE DYNAMIC UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
HAVE LIFTED INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S. LEAVING A DEEP LOW LEVEL
NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE. FAIR PRESSURE RISES AND 40+ KT 850MB WINDS
SHOULD GENERATE GUSTY WINDS...BUT SPEEDS REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

RESIDUAL MOISTURE BELOW 4K FT SHOWN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS FORCED UP
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES...COMBINED WITH LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN
6.5 C/KM WILL HELP GENERATE UPSLOPE SHOWERS MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY
EVENING.

LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS MONDAY...HOWEVER...WITH
DOWNSLOPING WINDS...TEMPS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL STILL MANAGE
TO REACH WELL INTO THE 80S.

CHANCE FOR UPSLOPE SHOWERS DIMINISH TUESDAY AND UPSLOPE FLOW WEAKENS
AND LOW LEVEL DRYING CONTINUES.  AS THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE ALSO WEAKENS...COOLING TREND CONTINUES AND WENT SLIGHTLY
BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TUESDAY. ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL EASTERN U.S. TROF HELPS DEVELOP A WEAK SFC LOW ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS LATE TUESDAY. MODELS HINT THAT THIS MAY PRODUCE A WEAK
EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE FAR EAST AND PERHAPS BRING SOME CLOUDS TO
THIS REGION.  ACROSS THE WEST...HOWEVER...SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT TO DROP INTO THE 40S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A COLD FRONT WELL OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.
A 1020MB SURFACE HIGH OVER SE MO SHIFTS TO THE NE STATES THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. AT THE MID LEVELS...A RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
WESTERN US...WHILE A TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN US. VERY
LITTLE MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE ONLY
PLACE THAT MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEAK OUT A SHOWER OR TWO IS ACROSS THE
FAR SW...OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY. MOISTURE AND
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THUS
INCREASING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GREATEST CHANCE
POPS ARE ACROSS THE WEST WHERE THE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED.

850MB TEMPS OF +13-15C AND A PERSISTENT WEDGING EASTERLY WIND WILL
ALLOW SURFACE HIGH TEMPS TO BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THURSDAY
WILL BE THE COOLEST MORNING OF THE PERIOD WITH UPPER 40S POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOW TEMPS WILL
MODERATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE DEWPTS INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT SUNDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO ENTER
THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES
OVERHEAD. TRENDS SINCE MIDNIGHT HAVE INDICATED WEAKENING OF THE
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER KY EVEN AS NEW SHOWERS DEVELOP AS THE
ENERGY ENCOUNTERS THE OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN
FURTHER NORTH. WITH DECREASING INSTABILITY DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...BELIEVE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
WEAK...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES.
CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY VFR IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

ONCE CONVECTION OVER KENTUCKY EXITS...MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN IN/WESTERN KY THIS MORNING TO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON. UNSURE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
WILL BE IN PLACE BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL DEPEND ON HOW
MUCH CLOUD COVER REMAINS FROM THE MORNING. CONSIDERING THE
STRENGTHENING WEST WIND DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL HELP KEEP
A LID ON CONVECTION...HAVE SHOWERS IN THE TAFS FOR NOW.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE EVENING...WHEN ANOTHER STRONGER
DISTURBANCE WILL ARRIVE...BRINGING 50KT TO 55KT MID LEVEL WINDS.
BELIEVE STORMS WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL ARRIVE IN SOUTHEAST WV
AT OR AROUND 28/00Z IN THE FORM OF A LINE...AND THEN PASS QUICKLY
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 28/03Z. HIGHEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND NORTHERN VA PIEDMONT...AFFECTING
KLWB/KLYH/KROA/KBCB/KBLF. BELIEVE THE STORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY
PASS THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE DOWNSLOPE WINDFLOW. STRONG WINDS WILL
BE THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS AS THEY PULL THE STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. CANNOT RULE OUT HAIL...AND HEAVY
RAIN WILL ALSO BE LIKELY WITH THE LINE...WHICH WILL PRODUCE IFR
VISIBILITIES FOR EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME. WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
QUIET DOWN TO RESIDUAL SHOWER ACTIVITY/ISOLATED STORMS AFTER
28/04Z AS THE MAIN ENERGY PASSES EAST.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...SO THREAT OF SUB VFR THROUGH MONDAY EXPECTED ACROSS SE
WEST VA PER NW FLOW...BUT LESS ELSEWHERE GIVEN DOWNSLOPE.

SOME GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LIKELY ESPCLY ALONG THE
RIDGES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FOR
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...AND MAINLY VFR. CANNOT RULE OUT LATE NIGHT
FOG KBCB/KLWB BUT LOW LVLS MAY STAY DRY ENOUGH FOR LESS FOG
COVERAGE.

VARIABLE CIGS EXPECTED UNDER ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK. A FEW -SHRA NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS
EASTERN WV...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. TYPICAL FOG
POTENTIAL LESS THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK BECAUSE OF TURBULENT MIXING AND PREVAILING CYCLONIC FLOW.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE UPPER LOW RETROGRADES JUST
WEST OF THE REGION...INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA...
ESPECIALLY IN THE FRI-SUN TIME FRAME.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...NF/RAB



000
FXUS61 KRNK 270920
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
520 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH THIS FEATURE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MIDWEST THIS EVENING AND SPREAD EAST
TOWARD OUR AREA BY EARLY SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH COOLER
WEATHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT SUNDAY...

SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES
OVERHEAD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AROUND A HALF INCH
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...WITH AMOUNTS TAPERING DOWN TO A
FEW HUNDREDTHS FURTHER EAST. IN ADDITION TO THE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY
AFFECTING OUR AREA...ALSO KEEPING AN EYE ON TWO OTHER AREAS OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ONE ENTERING WESTERN KENTUCKY AND ANOTHER
OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS.

RAPID UPDATE FORECAST MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY WILL SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST...
PUSHING INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS LATE MORNING TO AROUND
NOON. WHILE THE DISTURBANCE TRIGGERING THESE STORMS MAY REMAIN
STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...
WONDERING IF THE CLOUD COVER IT PRODUCES WILL ALSO LIMIT
INSTABILITY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460 DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
THE SECOND...MORE POTENT DISTURBANCE PUSHES EAST ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER.

THE SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL BRING WITH IT AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
MID LEVEL WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 50KT TO 60KT. WITH CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED TO BE MORE DIMINISHED HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 460...EXPECT GREATER INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA. MODELS ARE
IN AGREEMENT ON BRINGING THE SECOND LINE OF STORMS INTO SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA DURING THE 6PM TO 8PM TIME FRAME...WITH CONVECTION
QUICKLY SPREADING EAST THEREAFTER. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS WILL BE POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS AS THE DOWNDRAFTS PULL
THE STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS TO THE SURFACE. HAIL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE STRONGER CELLS...AS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN DUE TO THE UNUSUALLY HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM. DUE TO THE STRONG SHEAR PRESENTED BY THIS SYSTEM...
CANNOT EVEN RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO...ALTHOUGH BELIEVE THE
THREAT IS HIGHER WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS...OUTSIDE OUR FORECAST
AREA.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH DURING LATE EVENING
AS THE LINE PASSES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND BEGINS TO MOVE
DOWNSLOPE...ALTHOUGH SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN
THROUGH MIDNIGHT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT
WESTERLY EARLY MONDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION...LEAVING ONLY UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS.

AS MENTIONED BEFORE...CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS ARE ADDING TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF MANY ASPECTS OF THE FORECAST...INCLUDING AFTERNOON
HIGHS. HAVE UNDERCUT MAV/MET GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES...OPTING
FOR THE COOLER MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...

BY 12Z (8 AM EDT) MONDAY...THE DYNAMIC UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
HAVE LIFTED INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S. LEAVING A DEEP LOW LEVEL
NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE. FAIR PRESSURE RISES AND 40+ KT 850MB WINDS
SHOULD GENERATE GUSTY WINDS...BUT SPEEDS REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

RESIDUAL MOISTURE BELOW 4K FT SHOWN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS FORCED UP
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES...COMBINED WITH LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN
6.5 C/KM WILL HELP GENERATE UPSLOPE SHOWERS MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY
EVENING.

LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS MONDAY...HOWEVER...WITH
DOWNSLOPING WINDS...TEMPS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL STILL MANAGE
TO REACH WELL INTO THE 80S.

CHANCE FOR UPSLOPE SHOWERS DIMINISH TUESDAY AND UPSLOPE FLOW WEAKENS
AND LOW LEVEL DRYING CONTINUES.  AS THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE ALSO WEAKENS...COOLING TREND CONTINUES AND WENT SLIGHTLY
BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TUESDAY. ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL EASTERN U.S. TROF HELPS DEVELOP A WEAK SFC LOW ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS LATE TUESDAY. MODELS HINT THAT THIS MAY PRODUCE A WEAK
EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE FAR EAST AND PERHAPS BRING SOME CLOUDS TO
THIS REGION.  ACROSS THE WEST...HOWEVER...SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT TO DROP INTO THE 40S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A COLD FRONT WELL OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.
A 1020MB SURFACE HIGH OVER SE MO SHIFTS TO THE NE STATES THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. AT THE MID LEVELS...A RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
WESTERN US...WHILE A TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN US. VERY
LITTLE MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE ONLY
PLACE THAT MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEAK OUT A SHOWER OR TWO IS ACROSS THE
FAR SW...OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY. MOISTURE AND
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THUS
INCREASING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GREATEST CHANCE
POPS ARE ACROSS THE WEST WHERE THE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED.

850MB TEMPS OF +13-15C AND A PERSISTENT WEDGING EASTERLY WIND WILL
ALLOW SURFACE HIGH TEMPS TO BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THURSDAY
WILL BE THE COOLEST MORNING OF THE PERIOD WITH UPPER 40S POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOW TEMPS WILL
MODERATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE DEWPTS INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT SUNDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO ENTER
THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES
OVERHEAD. TRENDS SINCE MIDNIGHT HAVE INDICATED WEAKENING OF THE
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER KY EVEN AS NEW SHOWERS DEVELOP AS THE
ENERGY ENCOUNTERS THE OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN
FURTHER NORTH. WITH DECREASING INSTABILITY DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...BELIEVE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
WEAK...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES.
CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY VFR IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

ONCE CONVECTION OVER KENTUCKY EXITS...MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN IN/WESTERN KY THIS MORNING TO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON. UNSURE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
WILL BE IN PLACE BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL DEPEND ON HOW
MUCH CLOUD COVER REMAINS FROM THE MORNING. CONSIDERING THE
STRENGTHENING WEST WIND DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL HELP KEEP
A LID ON CONVECTION...HAVE SHOWERS IN THE TAFS FOR NOW.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE EVENING...WHEN ANOTHER STRONGER
DISTURBANCE WILL ARRIVE...BRINGING 50KT TO 55KT MID LEVEL WINDS.
BELIEVE STORMS WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL ARRIVE IN SOUTHEAST WV
AT OR AROUND 28/00Z IN THE FORM OF A LINE...AND THEN PASS QUICKLY
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 28/03Z. HIGHEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND NORTHERN VA PIEDMONT...AFFECTING
KLWB/KLYH/KROA/KBCB/KBLF. BELIEVE THE STORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY
PASS THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE DOWNSLOPE WINDFLOW. STRONG WINDS WILL
BE THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS AS THEY PULL THE STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. CANNOT RULE OUT HAIL...AND HEAVY
RAIN WILL ALSO BE LIKELY WITH THE LINE...WHICH WILL PRODUCE IFR
VISIBILITIES FOR EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME. WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
QUIET DOWN TO RESIDUAL SHOWER ACTIVITY/ISOLATED STORMS AFTER
28/04Z AS THE MAIN ENERGY PASSES EAST.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...SO THREAT OF SUB VFR THROUGH MONDAY EXPECTED ACROSS SE
WEST VA PER NW FLOW...BUT LESS ELSEWHERE GIVEN DOWNSLOPE.

SOME GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LIKELY ESPCLY ALONG THE
RIDGES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FOR
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...AND MAINLY VFR. CANNOT RULE OUT LATE NIGHT
FOG KBCB/KLWB BUT LOW LVLS MAY STAY DRY ENOUGH FOR LESS FOG
COVERAGE.

VARIABLE CIGS EXPECTED UNDER ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK. A FEW -SHRA NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS
EASTERN WV...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. TYPICAL FOG
POTENTIAL LESS THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK BECAUSE OF TURBULENT MIXING AND PREVAILING CYCLONIC FLOW.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE UPPER LOW RETROGRADES JUST
WEST OF THE REGION...INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA...
ESPECIALLY IN THE FRI-SUN TIME FRAME.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...NF/RAB




000
FXUS61 KLWX 270916 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
516 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER MINNESOTA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE LOCATED IN THE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. ONE IS OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE ANOTHER ONE IS
TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC HAS USHERED IN MORE MOISTURE...CAUSING
INSTABILITY TO INCREASE. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED INSTABILITY
AND FORCING FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES HAS TRIGGERED SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT THE OTHER ONE IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH OUR AREA
LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS OF NOW...IT APPEARS THAT ANY THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LIMITED
DUE TO CLOUD COVER...MARGINAL PROFILES AND PRECIPITATION KEEPING
INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT LIMITED.

HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD AT
LEAST BE SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE...AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S...THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. NAM/GFS BUFKIT ARE INDICATING BETWEEN 1000
AND 2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A
POTENT SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE UPPER-LEVEL AND LOWER-LEVEL FLOW
OVER OUR AREA...CAUSING SHEAR PROFILES TO BE HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY INTO WEST VIRGINIA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY SPREAD THROUGH OUR AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS IS GOING TO BE THE TIME WHEN
SEVERE WEATHER IS MOST LIKELY...WHICH WOULD BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS AND THIS
EVENING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...KEEP IN MIND
THAT SEVERE STORMS OUT AHEAD OF THIS LINE MAY DEVELOP ACROSS ALL
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THE INSTABILITY...SHEAR
PROFILES AND LIFTING MECHANISMS SUCH AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...A
SURFACE TROUGH AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ENHANCE THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IN FACT SUPERCELLS WITH SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IF THE
INGREDIENTS ALL COME TOGETHER. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK LATER TONIGHT
WHILE THE POTENT COLD FRONT LIKELY JUMPS TO THE PRESSURE TROUGH OFF
TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY MORNING. THE DRY SLOT ALONG WITH COLD
ADVECTION SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS TO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 70S IN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NEXT 24 HRS LOOK TO BE VERY ACTIVE WX WISE...WITH A DOWNWARD
TREND IN ACTIVITY EXPECTED THEREAFTER. CD FNT LOOKS TO BE MOVING
OFFSHORE MIDDAY MON...BRINGING AN END TO THE CNVCTV CHCS AND
USHERING IN THE COOLER AIR THAT WL END WHAT IS TYPICALLY THE
HOTTEST TIME IN THE HOTTEST MONTH OF THE YR (CLIMATOLOGICALLY
TEMPS BEGIN TO DROP IN EARLY AUG). BRZY CONDS AREA XPCTD MON AFTN.

AFTR THAT SVRL DAYS OF M CLR SKIES W/ COMFORTABLE TEMPS ARE XPCTD.
DWPTS IN THE 50S...HARD NOT TO ENJOY THAT IN JUL. HIGH TEMPS TUE-THU
SHOULD BE IN THE LM80S (COOLER IN THE MTNS) W/ LOWS IN THE MU50S.
(WARMER IN THE CITIES). NO REALLY HOT WX ON TAP FOR THE MID ATLC RGN.

AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED B4 THE PRIMARY REASON FOR THIS IS THE UPR
LVL WRN RDG/ERN TROF. DRY AND HOT IN THE W - NW ICC WEB SITE SHOWS
MULTIPLE WILDFIRES ONGOING IN OR/WA - W/ 2 IN WA BEING ESPECIALLY
LARGE. THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO RMN IN PLACE UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT
WKND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED TO MVFR/IFR
LEVELS BRIEFLY DURING TIMES OF CONVECTION.

CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF TO
OUR EAST.

CD FNT WL CROSS THE AREA MON MRNG. LINGERING SHOWERS/ANY LOWER CIGS
SHOULD IMPROVE BY AFTN THEN GUSTY NWRLY WINDS. THESE SHOULD
DIMINISH BY EVE. VFR CONDS MON NGT THRU THU.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
IT WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS...BUT A
STRENGHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WIND FIELD SHOULD CAUSE GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LATE
TONIGHT ALONG THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO
SMITH POINT AND THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER FROM COBB ISLAND TO
SMITH POINT. ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL AND ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE. PLEASE PAY ATTENTION
TO THE LATEST FORECASTS REGARDING WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR SEVERE
WEATHER.

SCA IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE WATERS DURG THE DAY MON AS A CD FNT
MOVES OFFSHORE AND WNW WINDS STRENGTHEN. NO PROBS FORESEEN MON
NGT-MIDWK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS CAUSED TIDAL ANOMALIES BETWEEN ONE HALF AND ONE
FOOT ABOVE NORMAL EARLY THIS MORNING. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY FOR MINOR FLOODING NEAR
HIGH TIDE EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ALONG THE
UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC SHORE NEAR WASHINGTON DC. AT THIS TIME...THE
FLOW APPEARS THAT IT IS LIGHT ENOUGH FOR WATER LEVELS TO REMAIN JUST
BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS NEAR HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING.

THE HIGH TIDE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE LOWER OF THE TWO...SO NO
TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED. THE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TURN OFFSHORE
LATE TONIGHT SO ANOMALIES SHOULD COME DOWN A BIT. THEREFORE...TIDAL
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ530-531-535-536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-540-541-543.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...BJL/WOODY!







000
FXUS61 KLWX 270916 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
516 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER MINNESOTA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE LOCATED IN THE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. ONE IS OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE ANOTHER ONE IS
TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC HAS USHERED IN MORE MOISTURE...CAUSING
INSTABILITY TO INCREASE. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED INSTABILITY
AND FORCING FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES HAS TRIGGERED SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT THE OTHER ONE IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH OUR AREA
LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS OF NOW...IT APPEARS THAT ANY THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LIMITED
DUE TO CLOUD COVER...MARGINAL PROFILES AND PRECIPITATION KEEPING
INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT LIMITED.

HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD AT
LEAST BE SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE...AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S...THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. NAM/GFS BUFKIT ARE INDICATING BETWEEN 1000
AND 2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A
POTENT SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE UPPER-LEVEL AND LOWER-LEVEL FLOW
OVER OUR AREA...CAUSING SHEAR PROFILES TO BE HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY INTO WEST VIRGINIA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY SPREAD THROUGH OUR AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS IS GOING TO BE THE TIME WHEN
SEVERE WEATHER IS MOST LIKELY...WHICH WOULD BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS AND THIS
EVENING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...KEEP IN MIND
THAT SEVERE STORMS OUT AHEAD OF THIS LINE MAY DEVELOP ACROSS ALL
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THE INSTABILITY...SHEAR
PROFILES AND LIFTING MECHANISMS SUCH AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...A
SURFACE TROUGH AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ENHANCE THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IN FACT SUPERCELLS WITH SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IF THE
INGREDIENTS ALL COME TOGETHER. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK LATER TONIGHT
WHILE THE POTENT COLD FRONT LIKELY JUMPS TO THE PRESSURE TROUGH OFF
TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY MORNING. THE DRY SLOT ALONG WITH COLD
ADVECTION SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS TO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 70S IN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NEXT 24 HRS LOOK TO BE VERY ACTIVE WX WISE...WITH A DOWNWARD
TREND IN ACTIVITY EXPECTED THEREAFTER. CD FNT LOOKS TO BE MOVING
OFFSHORE MIDDAY MON...BRINGING AN END TO THE CNVCTV CHCS AND
USHERING IN THE COOLER AIR THAT WL END WHAT IS TYPICALLY THE
HOTTEST TIME IN THE HOTTEST MONTH OF THE YR (CLIMATOLOGICALLY
TEMPS BEGIN TO DROP IN EARLY AUG). BRZY CONDS AREA XPCTD MON AFTN.

AFTR THAT SVRL DAYS OF M CLR SKIES W/ COMFORTABLE TEMPS ARE XPCTD.
DWPTS IN THE 50S...HARD NOT TO ENJOY THAT IN JUL. HIGH TEMPS TUE-THU
SHOULD BE IN THE LM80S (COOLER IN THE MTNS) W/ LOWS IN THE MU50S.
(WARMER IN THE CITIES). NO REALLY HOT WX ON TAP FOR THE MID ATLC RGN.

AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED B4 THE PRIMARY REASON FOR THIS IS THE UPR
LVL WRN RDG/ERN TROF. DRY AND HOT IN THE W - NW ICC WEB SITE SHOWS
MULTIPLE WILDFIRES ONGOING IN OR/WA - W/ 2 IN WA BEING ESPECIALLY
LARGE. THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO RMN IN PLACE UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT
WKND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED TO MVFR/IFR
LEVELS BRIEFLY DURING TIMES OF CONVECTION.

CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF TO
OUR EAST.

CD FNT WL CROSS THE AREA MON MRNG. LINGERING SHOWERS/ANY LOWER CIGS
SHOULD IMPROVE BY AFTN THEN GUSTY NWRLY WINDS. THESE SHOULD
DIMINISH BY EVE. VFR CONDS MON NGT THRU THU.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
IT WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS...BUT A
STRENGHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WIND FIELD SHOULD CAUSE GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LATE
TONIGHT ALONG THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO
SMITH POINT AND THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER FROM COBB ISLAND TO
SMITH POINT. ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL AND ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE. PLEASE PAY ATTENTION
TO THE LATEST FORECASTS REGARDING WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR SEVERE
WEATHER.

SCA IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE WATERS DURG THE DAY MON AS A CD FNT
MOVES OFFSHORE AND WNW WINDS STRENGTHEN. NO PROBS FORESEEN MON
NGT-MIDWK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS CAUSED TIDAL ANOMALIES BETWEEN ONE HALF AND ONE
FOOT ABOVE NORMAL EARLY THIS MORNING. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY FOR MINOR FLOODING NEAR
HIGH TIDE EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ALONG THE
UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC SHORE NEAR WASHINGTON DC. AT THIS TIME...THE
FLOW APPEARS THAT IT IS LIGHT ENOUGH FOR WATER LEVELS TO REMAIN JUST
BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS NEAR HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING.

THE HIGH TIDE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE LOWER OF THE TWO...SO NO
TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED. THE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TURN OFFSHORE
LATE TONIGHT SO ANOMALIES SHOULD COME DOWN A BIT. THEREFORE...TIDAL
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ530-531-535-536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-540-541-543.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...BJL/WOODY!







000
FXUS61 KLWX 270916 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
516 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER MINNESOTA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE LOCATED IN THE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. ONE IS OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE ANOTHER ONE IS
TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC HAS USHERED IN MORE MOISTURE...CAUSING
INSTABILITY TO INCREASE. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED INSTABILITY
AND FORCING FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES HAS TRIGGERED SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT THE OTHER ONE IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH OUR AREA
LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS OF NOW...IT APPEARS THAT ANY THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LIMITED
DUE TO CLOUD COVER...MARGINAL PROFILES AND PRECIPITATION KEEPING
INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT LIMITED.

HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD AT
LEAST BE SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE...AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S...THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. NAM/GFS BUFKIT ARE INDICATING BETWEEN 1000
AND 2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A
POTENT SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE UPPER-LEVEL AND LOWER-LEVEL FLOW
OVER OUR AREA...CAUSING SHEAR PROFILES TO BE HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY INTO WEST VIRGINIA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY SPREAD THROUGH OUR AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS IS GOING TO BE THE TIME WHEN
SEVERE WEATHER IS MOST LIKELY...WHICH WOULD BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS AND THIS
EVENING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...KEEP IN MIND
THAT SEVERE STORMS OUT AHEAD OF THIS LINE MAY DEVELOP ACROSS ALL
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THE INSTABILITY...SHEAR
PROFILES AND LIFTING MECHANISMS SUCH AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...A
SURFACE TROUGH AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ENHANCE THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IN FACT SUPERCELLS WITH SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IF THE
INGREDIENTS ALL COME TOGETHER. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK LATER TONIGHT
WHILE THE POTENT COLD FRONT LIKELY JUMPS TO THE PRESSURE TROUGH OFF
TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY MORNING. THE DRY SLOT ALONG WITH COLD
ADVECTION SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS TO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 70S IN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NEXT 24 HRS LOOK TO BE VERY ACTIVE WX WISE...WITH A DOWNWARD
TREND IN ACTIVITY EXPECTED THEREAFTER. CD FNT LOOKS TO BE MOVING
OFFSHORE MIDDAY MON...BRINGING AN END TO THE CNVCTV CHCS AND
USHERING IN THE COOLER AIR THAT WL END WHAT IS TYPICALLY THE
HOTTEST TIME IN THE HOTTEST MONTH OF THE YR (CLIMATOLOGICALLY
TEMPS BEGIN TO DROP IN EARLY AUG). BRZY CONDS AREA XPCTD MON AFTN.

AFTR THAT SVRL DAYS OF M CLR SKIES W/ COMFORTABLE TEMPS ARE XPCTD.
DWPTS IN THE 50S...HARD NOT TO ENJOY THAT IN JUL. HIGH TEMPS TUE-THU
SHOULD BE IN THE LM80S (COOLER IN THE MTNS) W/ LOWS IN THE MU50S.
(WARMER IN THE CITIES). NO REALLY HOT WX ON TAP FOR THE MID ATLC RGN.

AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED B4 THE PRIMARY REASON FOR THIS IS THE UPR
LVL WRN RDG/ERN TROF. DRY AND HOT IN THE W - NW ICC WEB SITE SHOWS
MULTIPLE WILDFIRES ONGOING IN OR/WA - W/ 2 IN WA BEING ESPECIALLY
LARGE. THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO RMN IN PLACE UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT
WKND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED TO MVFR/IFR
LEVELS BRIEFLY DURING TIMES OF CONVECTION.

CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF TO
OUR EAST.

CD FNT WL CROSS THE AREA MON MRNG. LINGERING SHOWERS/ANY LOWER CIGS
SHOULD IMPROVE BY AFTN THEN GUSTY NWRLY WINDS. THESE SHOULD
DIMINISH BY EVE. VFR CONDS MON NGT THRU THU.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
IT WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS...BUT A
STRENGHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WIND FIELD SHOULD CAUSE GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LATE
TONIGHT ALONG THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO
SMITH POINT AND THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER FROM COBB ISLAND TO
SMITH POINT. ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL AND ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE. PLEASE PAY ATTENTION
TO THE LATEST FORECASTS REGARDING WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR SEVERE
WEATHER.

SCA IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE WATERS DURG THE DAY MON AS A CD FNT
MOVES OFFSHORE AND WNW WINDS STRENGTHEN. NO PROBS FORESEEN MON
NGT-MIDWK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS CAUSED TIDAL ANOMALIES BETWEEN ONE HALF AND ONE
FOOT ABOVE NORMAL EARLY THIS MORNING. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY FOR MINOR FLOODING NEAR
HIGH TIDE EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ALONG THE
UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC SHORE NEAR WASHINGTON DC. AT THIS TIME...THE
FLOW APPEARS THAT IT IS LIGHT ENOUGH FOR WATER LEVELS TO REMAIN JUST
BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS NEAR HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING.

THE HIGH TIDE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE LOWER OF THE TWO...SO NO
TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED. THE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TURN OFFSHORE
LATE TONIGHT SO ANOMALIES SHOULD COME DOWN A BIT. THEREFORE...TIDAL
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ530-531-535-536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-540-541-543.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...BJL/WOODY!







000
FXUS61 KLWX 270916 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
516 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER MINNESOTA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE LOCATED IN THE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. ONE IS OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE ANOTHER ONE IS
TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC HAS USHERED IN MORE MOISTURE...CAUSING
INSTABILITY TO INCREASE. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED INSTABILITY
AND FORCING FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES HAS TRIGGERED SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT THE OTHER ONE IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH OUR AREA
LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS OF NOW...IT APPEARS THAT ANY THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LIMITED
DUE TO CLOUD COVER...MARGINAL PROFILES AND PRECIPITATION KEEPING
INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT LIMITED.

HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD AT
LEAST BE SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE...AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S...THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. NAM/GFS BUFKIT ARE INDICATING BETWEEN 1000
AND 2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A
POTENT SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE UPPER-LEVEL AND LOWER-LEVEL FLOW
OVER OUR AREA...CAUSING SHEAR PROFILES TO BE HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY INTO WEST VIRGINIA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY SPREAD THROUGH OUR AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS IS GOING TO BE THE TIME WHEN
SEVERE WEATHER IS MOST LIKELY...WHICH WOULD BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS AND THIS
EVENING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...KEEP IN MIND
THAT SEVERE STORMS OUT AHEAD OF THIS LINE MAY DEVELOP ACROSS ALL
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THE INSTABILITY...SHEAR
PROFILES AND LIFTING MECHANISMS SUCH AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...A
SURFACE TROUGH AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ENHANCE THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IN FACT SUPERCELLS WITH SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IF THE
INGREDIENTS ALL COME TOGETHER. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK LATER TONIGHT
WHILE THE POTENT COLD FRONT LIKELY JUMPS TO THE PRESSURE TROUGH OFF
TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY MORNING. THE DRY SLOT ALONG WITH COLD
ADVECTION SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS TO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 70S IN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NEXT 24 HRS LOOK TO BE VERY ACTIVE WX WISE...WITH A DOWNWARD
TREND IN ACTIVITY EXPECTED THEREAFTER. CD FNT LOOKS TO BE MOVING
OFFSHORE MIDDAY MON...BRINGING AN END TO THE CNVCTV CHCS AND
USHERING IN THE COOLER AIR THAT WL END WHAT IS TYPICALLY THE
HOTTEST TIME IN THE HOTTEST MONTH OF THE YR (CLIMATOLOGICALLY
TEMPS BEGIN TO DROP IN EARLY AUG). BRZY CONDS AREA XPCTD MON AFTN.

AFTR THAT SVRL DAYS OF M CLR SKIES W/ COMFORTABLE TEMPS ARE XPCTD.
DWPTS IN THE 50S...HARD NOT TO ENJOY THAT IN JUL. HIGH TEMPS TUE-THU
SHOULD BE IN THE LM80S (COOLER IN THE MTNS) W/ LOWS IN THE MU50S.
(WARMER IN THE CITIES). NO REALLY HOT WX ON TAP FOR THE MID ATLC RGN.

AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED B4 THE PRIMARY REASON FOR THIS IS THE UPR
LVL WRN RDG/ERN TROF. DRY AND HOT IN THE W - NW ICC WEB SITE SHOWS
MULTIPLE WILDFIRES ONGOING IN OR/WA - W/ 2 IN WA BEING ESPECIALLY
LARGE. THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO RMN IN PLACE UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT
WKND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED TO MVFR/IFR
LEVELS BRIEFLY DURING TIMES OF CONVECTION.

CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF TO
OUR EAST.

CD FNT WL CROSS THE AREA MON MRNG. LINGERING SHOWERS/ANY LOWER CIGS
SHOULD IMPROVE BY AFTN THEN GUSTY NWRLY WINDS. THESE SHOULD
DIMINISH BY EVE. VFR CONDS MON NGT THRU THU.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
IT WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS...BUT A
STRENGHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WIND FIELD SHOULD CAUSE GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LATE
TONIGHT ALONG THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO
SMITH POINT AND THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER FROM COBB ISLAND TO
SMITH POINT. ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL AND ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE. PLEASE PAY ATTENTION
TO THE LATEST FORECASTS REGARDING WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR SEVERE
WEATHER.

SCA IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE WATERS DURG THE DAY MON AS A CD FNT
MOVES OFFSHORE AND WNW WINDS STRENGTHEN. NO PROBS FORESEEN MON
NGT-MIDWK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS CAUSED TIDAL ANOMALIES BETWEEN ONE HALF AND ONE
FOOT ABOVE NORMAL EARLY THIS MORNING. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY FOR MINOR FLOODING NEAR
HIGH TIDE EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ALONG THE
UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC SHORE NEAR WASHINGTON DC. AT THIS TIME...THE
FLOW APPEARS THAT IT IS LIGHT ENOUGH FOR WATER LEVELS TO REMAIN JUST
BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS NEAR HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING.

THE HIGH TIDE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE LOWER OF THE TWO...SO NO
TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED. THE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TURN OFFSHORE
LATE TONIGHT SO ANOMALIES SHOULD COME DOWN A BIT. THEREFORE...TIDAL
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ530-531-535-536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-540-541-543.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...BJL/WOODY!







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270854
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
454 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION TODAY AND STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE COLD FRONT THEN CROSSES
THE AREA ON MONDAY AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME FOCUSED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WNW FLOW ALOFT IS STEERING A WANING MCS FROM SRN IN/WRN KY INTO SW
VA EARLY THIS MORNING. REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE MCS AND
EARLIER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/WV ON SATURDAY
ARE INTERACTING WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE OVER NW VA...THUS MERGING
WITH THE MCS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WORKING THEIR WAY INTO
FAR WRN COUNTIES OF THE PIEDMONT AND WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

A WARM FRONT IS NOW LOCATED JUST NORTHEAST OF THE REGION AND A
LEESIDE TROUGH IS DEEPENING. MEANWHILE...A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT
WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM CHICAGO
THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
LOW/SHORTWAVE WILL SWING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES TODAY AND PUSH THE
COLD FRONT TWD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. SHORTWAVE ENERGY LEFT OVER
FROM THE MCS AND ALSO EJECTING FROM THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE LEESIDE TROUGH BY THIS AFTN AND ENHANCE SYNOPTIC LIFT. MODEL
CROSS SECTIONS/TIME HEIGHTS/SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PLENTY OF
ELEVATED LIFT. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW INCREASING WIND SPEEDS WITH HEIGHT
WITH DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IN THE MID LEVELS (SW SFC GUSTS TO AROUND
20 MPH IN THE AFTN DUE TO A TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT). 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR REMAINS STRONG (AROUND 40 KT...INCREASING TO 50-60 KT BY
LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING). MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NOW COMING INTO
AGREEMENT WITH A MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR PROFILE AND MORE
LINEAR HODOGRAPHS...WHICH SUPPORTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE LINE SEGMENTS THAT WILL BE RIGHT-MOVERS.
OVERALL...CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS (MAINLY THIS AFTN/EVENING) THAT MAY BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. IF LEADING SUPERCELLS CAN DEVELOP TODAY...THEN AN
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT CANNOT BE RULE OUT. SPC HAS THE ENTIRE
WAKEFIELD AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY WITH A
MODERATE RISK FARTHER WEST OVER THE OH/KY/WV BORDER AREAS. SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE ONGOING THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE STRONG COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO CNTRL VA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.


TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY TODAY DUE TO THICK CIRRUS OVERSPREADING
THE REGION FROM MCS ACTIVITY. THIS WOULD ACT TO COOL TEMPS BY
SEVERAL DEGREES AND YET DECENT AFTN MIXING WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL
WARM SECTOR SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME ANY CLOUD LIMITING FACTORS.
STILL EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S TODAY. DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOWER 70S WILL BUMP HEAT INDEX VALUES TO 100-104 DEGREES
(SUB-ADVISORY) ACROSS SE VA/NE NC WHERE MORE PEAKS OF SUNSHINE ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTN. FOR TONIGHT...PRECIP
PLACEMENT AND ONGOING CONVECTION WILL DETERMINE EXACTLY HOW LOW
TEMPS CAN GO BY MONDAY MORNING. AM EXPECTING A WARM MUGGY NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S NW (UPPER 60S POSSIBLE FAR NW COUNTIES) TO
UPPER 70S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE STRONG COLD FRONT QUICKLY PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.
OVERNIGHT SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE FOCUSED ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AND RE-FIRE IN INTENSITY DUE TO THE ADDED LIFT. OVERALL...
PRECIP SHOULD BE CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS UNTIL THE FRONT CAN
PUSH WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING.
ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS DIMINISHED ON
MONDAY...A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
WEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH AS A COOLER
AND DRIER CANADIAN AIRMASS FILTERS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW-N.
WINDS AND SUNSHINE WILL BE KEY PLAYERS IN HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY.
CURRENT FORECAST RANGES FROM THE UPPER 80S NW TO 90-95 SE.


BNDRY PROGGED TO STALL INVOF GULF STREAM MON NIGHT AND TUE WHILE A
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH. KEPT SLGHT CHC
POPS ALONG SERN CSTL AREAS MON EVENING. LOWS IN THE 60S...XCPT L70S
SERN CSTL AREAS. DRY TUESDAY ALONG WITH LOWER HUMIDITY AS DEWPOINTS
DROP INTO THE 50S. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE L80S...U70S AT
THE BEACHES. LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S W TO MID 60S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF DIGS OVR THE MID ATLC REGION TUE NGT
INTO EARLY THU...BEFORE RETROGRADING BACK INTO THE OH AND MS VALLEYS
THU AFTN THRU SAT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OFF THE MID ATLC
CST TUE NGT THRU FRI...THEN DRIFTS BACK TWD THE CST FRI NGT THRU
SAT. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR TUE NGT THRU FRI...THEN HAVE ADDED
SLGT CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT AND SAT. A MORE COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL
DOMINATE THE AREA TUE NGT THRU THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
HUMIDITY RETURNS FOR FRI AND SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LWR TO MID 80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S
TO MID 60S WED AND THU MORNGS...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI
MORNG...AND RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AREA OF CONVECTION SLIDING SE FM SW PA/NRN WV/NW VA TO CONT
TRACKING ESE THROUGH EARLY MRNG HRS W/ SOME WEAKENING AS IT DOES
SO. PTNTL FOR PCPN AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...ESP KRIC-KSBY. A
SECOND AREA OF CONVECTION FCST TO EXIT THE MTNS MID/LT MRNG...AND
TRACK OVR THE RGN MIDDAY INTO THIS EVE (ALSO W/ PSBL BRIEF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS/HVY RA). OTRW...SSW WINDS GUSTING TO 15 KT AND SCT-BKN
CLDS XPCD TDA AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W.
THE FRONT IS XPCD TO CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY W/ LO PROB FOR
PCPN AND GUSTY MNLY W WNDS (TO 20 KT). MNLY VFR CONDS MON NGT INTO
WED.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES XPCD THRU MON. A CDFNT PUSHES APPROACHES THE MID ATLC
REGION TDA...THEN MOVE ACRS THE WTRS AND OFF THE CST LATE TNGT
THROUGH MON NGT. SSW WINDS 10 TO 20 KT THROUGH TNGT. WINDS WILL TURN
TO THE W DURING MON...THEN NW AND N MON NGT INTO TUE MRNG.
WAVES/SEAS LIKELY TO RISE A FOOT OR TWO IN RESPONSE TO INCRSD SPDS
AND DIRECTION CHG TO NNW (MON NGT INTO TUE). GENERALLY NNE WINDS
15 KT OR LESS EXPECTED FOR TUE THRU THU.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD/MPR
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB









000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270854
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
454 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION TODAY AND STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE COLD FRONT THEN CROSSES
THE AREA ON MONDAY AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME FOCUSED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WNW FLOW ALOFT IS STEERING A WANING MCS FROM SRN IN/WRN KY INTO SW
VA EARLY THIS MORNING. REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE MCS AND
EARLIER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/WV ON SATURDAY
ARE INTERACTING WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE OVER NW VA...THUS MERGING
WITH THE MCS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WORKING THEIR WAY INTO
FAR WRN COUNTIES OF THE PIEDMONT AND WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

A WARM FRONT IS NOW LOCATED JUST NORTHEAST OF THE REGION AND A
LEESIDE TROUGH IS DEEPENING. MEANWHILE...A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT
WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM CHICAGO
THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
LOW/SHORTWAVE WILL SWING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES TODAY AND PUSH THE
COLD FRONT TWD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. SHORTWAVE ENERGY LEFT OVER
FROM THE MCS AND ALSO EJECTING FROM THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE LEESIDE TROUGH BY THIS AFTN AND ENHANCE SYNOPTIC LIFT. MODEL
CROSS SECTIONS/TIME HEIGHTS/SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PLENTY OF
ELEVATED LIFT. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW INCREASING WIND SPEEDS WITH HEIGHT
WITH DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IN THE MID LEVELS (SW SFC GUSTS TO AROUND
20 MPH IN THE AFTN DUE TO A TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT). 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR REMAINS STRONG (AROUND 40 KT...INCREASING TO 50-60 KT BY
LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING). MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NOW COMING INTO
AGREEMENT WITH A MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR PROFILE AND MORE
LINEAR HODOGRAPHS...WHICH SUPPORTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE LINE SEGMENTS THAT WILL BE RIGHT-MOVERS.
OVERALL...CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS (MAINLY THIS AFTN/EVENING) THAT MAY BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. IF LEADING SUPERCELLS CAN DEVELOP TODAY...THEN AN
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT CANNOT BE RULE OUT. SPC HAS THE ENTIRE
WAKEFIELD AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY WITH A
MODERATE RISK FARTHER WEST OVER THE OH/KY/WV BORDER AREAS. SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE ONGOING THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE STRONG COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO CNTRL VA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.


TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY TODAY DUE TO THICK CIRRUS OVERSPREADING
THE REGION FROM MCS ACTIVITY. THIS WOULD ACT TO COOL TEMPS BY
SEVERAL DEGREES AND YET DECENT AFTN MIXING WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL
WARM SECTOR SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME ANY CLOUD LIMITING FACTORS.
STILL EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S TODAY. DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOWER 70S WILL BUMP HEAT INDEX VALUES TO 100-104 DEGREES
(SUB-ADVISORY) ACROSS SE VA/NE NC WHERE MORE PEAKS OF SUNSHINE ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTN. FOR TONIGHT...PRECIP
PLACEMENT AND ONGOING CONVECTION WILL DETERMINE EXACTLY HOW LOW
TEMPS CAN GO BY MONDAY MORNING. AM EXPECTING A WARM MUGGY NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S NW (UPPER 60S POSSIBLE FAR NW COUNTIES) TO
UPPER 70S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE STRONG COLD FRONT QUICKLY PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.
OVERNIGHT SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE FOCUSED ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AND RE-FIRE IN INTENSITY DUE TO THE ADDED LIFT. OVERALL...
PRECIP SHOULD BE CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS UNTIL THE FRONT CAN
PUSH WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING.
ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS DIMINISHED ON
MONDAY...A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
WEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH AS A COOLER
AND DRIER CANADIAN AIRMASS FILTERS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW-N.
WINDS AND SUNSHINE WILL BE KEY PLAYERS IN HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY.
CURRENT FORECAST RANGES FROM THE UPPER 80S NW TO 90-95 SE.


BNDRY PROGGED TO STALL INVOF GULF STREAM MON NIGHT AND TUE WHILE A
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH. KEPT SLGHT CHC
POPS ALONG SERN CSTL AREAS MON EVENING. LOWS IN THE 60S...XCPT L70S
SERN CSTL AREAS. DRY TUESDAY ALONG WITH LOWER HUMIDITY AS DEWPOINTS
DROP INTO THE 50S. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE L80S...U70S AT
THE BEACHES. LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S W TO MID 60S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF DIGS OVR THE MID ATLC REGION TUE NGT
INTO EARLY THU...BEFORE RETROGRADING BACK INTO THE OH AND MS VALLEYS
THU AFTN THRU SAT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OFF THE MID ATLC
CST TUE NGT THRU FRI...THEN DRIFTS BACK TWD THE CST FRI NGT THRU
SAT. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR TUE NGT THRU FRI...THEN HAVE ADDED
SLGT CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT AND SAT. A MORE COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL
DOMINATE THE AREA TUE NGT THRU THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
HUMIDITY RETURNS FOR FRI AND SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LWR TO MID 80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S
TO MID 60S WED AND THU MORNGS...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI
MORNG...AND RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AREA OF CONVECTION SLIDING SE FM SW PA/NRN WV/NW VA TO CONT
TRACKING ESE THROUGH EARLY MRNG HRS W/ SOME WEAKENING AS IT DOES
SO. PTNTL FOR PCPN AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...ESP KRIC-KSBY. A
SECOND AREA OF CONVECTION FCST TO EXIT THE MTNS MID/LT MRNG...AND
TRACK OVR THE RGN MIDDAY INTO THIS EVE (ALSO W/ PSBL BRIEF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS/HVY RA). OTRW...SSW WINDS GUSTING TO 15 KT AND SCT-BKN
CLDS XPCD TDA AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W.
THE FRONT IS XPCD TO CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY W/ LO PROB FOR
PCPN AND GUSTY MNLY W WNDS (TO 20 KT). MNLY VFR CONDS MON NGT INTO
WED.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES XPCD THRU MON. A CDFNT PUSHES APPROACHES THE MID ATLC
REGION TDA...THEN MOVE ACRS THE WTRS AND OFF THE CST LATE TNGT
THROUGH MON NGT. SSW WINDS 10 TO 20 KT THROUGH TNGT. WINDS WILL TURN
TO THE W DURING MON...THEN NW AND N MON NGT INTO TUE MRNG.
WAVES/SEAS LIKELY TO RISE A FOOT OR TWO IN RESPONSE TO INCRSD SPDS
AND DIRECTION CHG TO NNW (MON NGT INTO TUE). GENERALLY NNE WINDS
15 KT OR LESS EXPECTED FOR TUE THRU THU.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD/MPR
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB








000
FXUS61 KLWX 270653
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
253 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE OVER MINNESOTA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE LOCATED IN THE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. ONE IS OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE ANOTHER ONE IS
TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC HAS USHERED IN MORE MOISTURE...CAUSING
INSTABILITY TO INCREASE. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED INSTABILITY
AND FORCING FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES HAS TRIGGERED SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT THE OTHER ONE IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH OUR AREA
LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS OF NOW...IT APPEARS THAT ANY THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LIMITED
DUE TO CLOUD COVER...MARGINAL PROFILES AND PRECIPITATION KEEPING
INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT LIMITED.

HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD AT
LEAST BE SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE...AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S...THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. NAM/GFS BUFKIT ARE INDICATING BETWEEN 1000
AND 2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A
POTENT SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE UPPER-LEVEL AND LOWER-LEVEL FLOW
OVER OUR AREA...CAUSING SHEAR PROFILES TO BE HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY INTO WEST VIRGINIA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY SPREAD THROUGH OUR AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS IS GOING TO BE THE TIME WHEN
SEVERE WEATHER IS MOST LIKELY...WHICH WOULD BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS AND THIS
EVENING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...KEEP IN MIND
THAT SEVERE STORMS OUT AHEAD OF THIS LINE MAY DEVELOP ACROSS ALL
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THE INSTABILITY...SHEAR
PROFILES AND LIFTING MECHANISMS SUCH AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...A
SURFACE TROUGH AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ENHANCE THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IN FACT SUPERCELLS WITH SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IF THE
INGREDIENTS ALL COME TOGETHER. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...

THE POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK LATER TONIGHT
WHILE THE POTENT COLD FRONT LIKELY JUMPS TO THE PRESSURE TROUGH OFF
TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY MORNING. THE DRY SLOT ALONG WITH COLD
ADVECTION SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS TO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 70S IN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THE NEXT 24 HRS LOOK TO BE VERY ACTIVE WX WISE...WITH A DOWNWARD
TREND IN ACTIVITY EXPECTED THEREAFTER. CD FNT LOOKS TO BE MOVING
OFFSHORE MIDDAY MON...BRINGING AN END TO THE CNVCTV CHCS AND
USHERING IN THE COOLER AIR THAT WL END WHAT IS TYPICALLY THE
HOTTEST TIME IN THE HOTTEST MONTH OF THE YR (CLIMATOLOGICALLY
TEMPS BEGIN TO DROP IN EARLY AUG). BRZY CONDS AREA XPCTD MON AFTN.

AFTR THAT SVRL DAYS OF M CLR SKIES W/ COMFORTABLE TEMPS ARE XPCTD.
DWPTS IN THE 50S...HARD NOT TO ENJOY THAT IN JUL. HIGH TEMPS TUE-THU
SHOULD BE IN THE LM80S (COOLER IN THE MTNS) W/ LOWS IN THE MU50S.
(WARMER IN THE CITIES). NO REALLY HOT WX ON TAP FOR THE MID ATLC RGN.

AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED B4 THE PRIMARY REASON FOR THIS IS THE UPR
LVL WRN RDG/ERN TROF. DRY AND HOT IN THE W - NW ICC WEB SITE SHOWS
MULTIPLE WILDFIRES ONGOING IN OR/WA - W/ 2 IN WA BEING ESPECIALLY
LARGE. THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO RMN IN PLACE UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT
WKND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED TO MVFR/IFR
LEVELS BRIEFLY DURING TIMES OF CONVECTION.

CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF TO
OUR EAST.

CD FNT WL CROSS THE AREA MON MRNG. LINGERING SHOWERS/ANY LOWER CIGS
SHOULD IMPROVE BY AFTN THEN GUSTY NWRLY WINDS. THESE SHOULD
DIMINISH BY EVE. VFR CONDS MON NGT THRU THU.

&&

.MARINE...

A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR THE
MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO SMITH POINT AND THE
LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER FROM COBB ISLAND TO SMITH POINT. ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE. PLEASE PAY ATTENTION TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS REGARDING WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

SCA IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE WATERS DURG THE DAY MON AS A CD FNT
MOVES OFFSHORE AND WNW WINDS STRENGTHEN. NO PROBS FORESEEN MON
NGT-MIDWK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

A SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS CAUSED TIDAL ANOMALIES BETWEEN ONE HALF AND ONE
FOOT ABOVE NORMAL EARLY THIS MORNING. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY FOR MINOR FLOODING NEAR
HIGH TIDE EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ALONG THE
UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC SHORE NEAR WASHINGTON DC. AT THIS TIME...THE
FLOW APPEARS THAT IT IS LIGHT ENOUGH FOR WATER LEVELS TO REMAIN JUST
BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS NEAR HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING.

THE HIGH TIDE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE LOWER OF THE TWO...SO NO
TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED. THE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TURN OFFSHORE
LATE TONIGHT SO ANOMALIES SHOULD COME DOWN A BIT. THEREFORE...TIDAL
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ531>534-537-539>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ532>534-537-540-541-543.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...BJL/WOODY!








000
FXUS61 KLWX 270653
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
253 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE OVER MINNESOTA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE LOCATED IN THE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. ONE IS OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE ANOTHER ONE IS
TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC HAS USHERED IN MORE MOISTURE...CAUSING
INSTABILITY TO INCREASE. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED INSTABILITY
AND FORCING FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES HAS TRIGGERED SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT THE OTHER ONE IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH OUR AREA
LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS OF NOW...IT APPEARS THAT ANY THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LIMITED
DUE TO CLOUD COVER...MARGINAL PROFILES AND PRECIPITATION KEEPING
INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT LIMITED.

HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD AT
LEAST BE SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE...AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S...THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. NAM/GFS BUFKIT ARE INDICATING BETWEEN 1000
AND 2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A
POTENT SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE UPPER-LEVEL AND LOWER-LEVEL FLOW
OVER OUR AREA...CAUSING SHEAR PROFILES TO BE HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY INTO WEST VIRGINIA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY SPREAD THROUGH OUR AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS IS GOING TO BE THE TIME WHEN
SEVERE WEATHER IS MOST LIKELY...WHICH WOULD BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS AND THIS
EVENING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...KEEP IN MIND
THAT SEVERE STORMS OUT AHEAD OF THIS LINE MAY DEVELOP ACROSS ALL
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THE INSTABILITY...SHEAR
PROFILES AND LIFTING MECHANISMS SUCH AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...A
SURFACE TROUGH AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ENHANCE THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IN FACT SUPERCELLS WITH SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IF THE
INGREDIENTS ALL COME TOGETHER. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...

THE POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK LATER TONIGHT
WHILE THE POTENT COLD FRONT LIKELY JUMPS TO THE PRESSURE TROUGH OFF
TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY MORNING. THE DRY SLOT ALONG WITH COLD
ADVECTION SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS TO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 70S IN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THE NEXT 24 HRS LOOK TO BE VERY ACTIVE WX WISE...WITH A DOWNWARD
TREND IN ACTIVITY EXPECTED THEREAFTER. CD FNT LOOKS TO BE MOVING
OFFSHORE MIDDAY MON...BRINGING AN END TO THE CNVCTV CHCS AND
USHERING IN THE COOLER AIR THAT WL END WHAT IS TYPICALLY THE
HOTTEST TIME IN THE HOTTEST MONTH OF THE YR (CLIMATOLOGICALLY
TEMPS BEGIN TO DROP IN EARLY AUG). BRZY CONDS AREA XPCTD MON AFTN.

AFTR THAT SVRL DAYS OF M CLR SKIES W/ COMFORTABLE TEMPS ARE XPCTD.
DWPTS IN THE 50S...HARD NOT TO ENJOY THAT IN JUL. HIGH TEMPS TUE-THU
SHOULD BE IN THE LM80S (COOLER IN THE MTNS) W/ LOWS IN THE MU50S.
(WARMER IN THE CITIES). NO REALLY HOT WX ON TAP FOR THE MID ATLC RGN.

AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED B4 THE PRIMARY REASON FOR THIS IS THE UPR
LVL WRN RDG/ERN TROF. DRY AND HOT IN THE W - NW ICC WEB SITE SHOWS
MULTIPLE WILDFIRES ONGOING IN OR/WA - W/ 2 IN WA BEING ESPECIALLY
LARGE. THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO RMN IN PLACE UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT
WKND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED TO MVFR/IFR
LEVELS BRIEFLY DURING TIMES OF CONVECTION.

CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF TO
OUR EAST.

CD FNT WL CROSS THE AREA MON MRNG. LINGERING SHOWERS/ANY LOWER CIGS
SHOULD IMPROVE BY AFTN THEN GUSTY NWRLY WINDS. THESE SHOULD
DIMINISH BY EVE. VFR CONDS MON NGT THRU THU.

&&

.MARINE...

A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR THE
MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO SMITH POINT AND THE
LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER FROM COBB ISLAND TO SMITH POINT. ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE. PLEASE PAY ATTENTION TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS REGARDING WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

SCA IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE WATERS DURG THE DAY MON AS A CD FNT
MOVES OFFSHORE AND WNW WINDS STRENGTHEN. NO PROBS FORESEEN MON
NGT-MIDWK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

A SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS CAUSED TIDAL ANOMALIES BETWEEN ONE HALF AND ONE
FOOT ABOVE NORMAL EARLY THIS MORNING. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY FOR MINOR FLOODING NEAR
HIGH TIDE EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ALONG THE
UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC SHORE NEAR WASHINGTON DC. AT THIS TIME...THE
FLOW APPEARS THAT IT IS LIGHT ENOUGH FOR WATER LEVELS TO REMAIN JUST
BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS NEAR HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING.

THE HIGH TIDE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE LOWER OF THE TWO...SO NO
TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED. THE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TURN OFFSHORE
LATE TONIGHT SO ANOMALIES SHOULD COME DOWN A BIT. THEREFORE...TIDAL
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ531>534-537-539>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ532>534-537-540-541-543.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...BJL/WOODY!








000
FXUS61 KLWX 270653
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
253 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE OVER MINNESOTA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE LOCATED IN THE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. ONE IS OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE ANOTHER ONE IS
TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC HAS USHERED IN MORE MOISTURE...CAUSING
INSTABILITY TO INCREASE. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED INSTABILITY
AND FORCING FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES HAS TRIGGERED SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT THE OTHER ONE IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH OUR AREA
LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS OF NOW...IT APPEARS THAT ANY THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LIMITED
DUE TO CLOUD COVER...MARGINAL PROFILES AND PRECIPITATION KEEPING
INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT LIMITED.

HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD AT
LEAST BE SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE...AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S...THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. NAM/GFS BUFKIT ARE INDICATING BETWEEN 1000
AND 2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A
POTENT SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE UPPER-LEVEL AND LOWER-LEVEL FLOW
OVER OUR AREA...CAUSING SHEAR PROFILES TO BE HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY INTO WEST VIRGINIA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY SPREAD THROUGH OUR AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS IS GOING TO BE THE TIME WHEN
SEVERE WEATHER IS MOST LIKELY...WHICH WOULD BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS AND THIS
EVENING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...KEEP IN MIND
THAT SEVERE STORMS OUT AHEAD OF THIS LINE MAY DEVELOP ACROSS ALL
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THE INSTABILITY...SHEAR
PROFILES AND LIFTING MECHANISMS SUCH AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...A
SURFACE TROUGH AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ENHANCE THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IN FACT SUPERCELLS WITH SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IF THE
INGREDIENTS ALL COME TOGETHER. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...

THE POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK LATER TONIGHT
WHILE THE POTENT COLD FRONT LIKELY JUMPS TO THE PRESSURE TROUGH OFF
TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY MORNING. THE DRY SLOT ALONG WITH COLD
ADVECTION SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS TO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 70S IN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THE NEXT 24 HRS LOOK TO BE VERY ACTIVE WX WISE...WITH A DOWNWARD
TREND IN ACTIVITY EXPECTED THEREAFTER. CD FNT LOOKS TO BE MOVING
OFFSHORE MIDDAY MON...BRINGING AN END TO THE CNVCTV CHCS AND
USHERING IN THE COOLER AIR THAT WL END WHAT IS TYPICALLY THE
HOTTEST TIME IN THE HOTTEST MONTH OF THE YR (CLIMATOLOGICALLY
TEMPS BEGIN TO DROP IN EARLY AUG). BRZY CONDS AREA XPCTD MON AFTN.

AFTR THAT SVRL DAYS OF M CLR SKIES W/ COMFORTABLE TEMPS ARE XPCTD.
DWPTS IN THE 50S...HARD NOT TO ENJOY THAT IN JUL. HIGH TEMPS TUE-THU
SHOULD BE IN THE LM80S (COOLER IN THE MTNS) W/ LOWS IN THE MU50S.
(WARMER IN THE CITIES). NO REALLY HOT WX ON TAP FOR THE MID ATLC RGN.

AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED B4 THE PRIMARY REASON FOR THIS IS THE UPR
LVL WRN RDG/ERN TROF. DRY AND HOT IN THE W - NW ICC WEB SITE SHOWS
MULTIPLE WILDFIRES ONGOING IN OR/WA - W/ 2 IN WA BEING ESPECIALLY
LARGE. THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO RMN IN PLACE UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT
WKND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED TO MVFR/IFR
LEVELS BRIEFLY DURING TIMES OF CONVECTION.

CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF TO
OUR EAST.

CD FNT WL CROSS THE AREA MON MRNG. LINGERING SHOWERS/ANY LOWER CIGS
SHOULD IMPROVE BY AFTN THEN GUSTY NWRLY WINDS. THESE SHOULD
DIMINISH BY EVE. VFR CONDS MON NGT THRU THU.

&&

.MARINE...

A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR THE
MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO SMITH POINT AND THE
LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER FROM COBB ISLAND TO SMITH POINT. ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE. PLEASE PAY ATTENTION TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS REGARDING WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

SCA IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE WATERS DURG THE DAY MON AS A CD FNT
MOVES OFFSHORE AND WNW WINDS STRENGTHEN. NO PROBS FORESEEN MON
NGT-MIDWK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

A SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS CAUSED TIDAL ANOMALIES BETWEEN ONE HALF AND ONE
FOOT ABOVE NORMAL EARLY THIS MORNING. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY FOR MINOR FLOODING NEAR
HIGH TIDE EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ALONG THE
UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC SHORE NEAR WASHINGTON DC. AT THIS TIME...THE
FLOW APPEARS THAT IT IS LIGHT ENOUGH FOR WATER LEVELS TO REMAIN JUST
BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS NEAR HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING.

THE HIGH TIDE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE LOWER OF THE TWO...SO NO
TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED. THE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TURN OFFSHORE
LATE TONIGHT SO ANOMALIES SHOULD COME DOWN A BIT. THEREFORE...TIDAL
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ531>534-537-539>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ532>534-537-540-541-543.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...BJL/WOODY!








000
FXUS61 KLWX 270653
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
253 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE OVER MINNESOTA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE LOCATED IN THE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. ONE IS OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE ANOTHER ONE IS
TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC HAS USHERED IN MORE MOISTURE...CAUSING
INSTABILITY TO INCREASE. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED INSTABILITY
AND FORCING FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES HAS TRIGGERED SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT THE OTHER ONE IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH OUR AREA
LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS OF NOW...IT APPEARS THAT ANY THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LIMITED
DUE TO CLOUD COVER...MARGINAL PROFILES AND PRECIPITATION KEEPING
INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT LIMITED.

HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD AT
LEAST BE SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE...AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S...THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. NAM/GFS BUFKIT ARE INDICATING BETWEEN 1000
AND 2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A
POTENT SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE UPPER-LEVEL AND LOWER-LEVEL FLOW
OVER OUR AREA...CAUSING SHEAR PROFILES TO BE HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY INTO WEST VIRGINIA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY SPREAD THROUGH OUR AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS IS GOING TO BE THE TIME WHEN
SEVERE WEATHER IS MOST LIKELY...WHICH WOULD BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS AND THIS
EVENING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...KEEP IN MIND
THAT SEVERE STORMS OUT AHEAD OF THIS LINE MAY DEVELOP ACROSS ALL
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THE INSTABILITY...SHEAR
PROFILES AND LIFTING MECHANISMS SUCH AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...A
SURFACE TROUGH AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ENHANCE THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IN FACT SUPERCELLS WITH SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IF THE
INGREDIENTS ALL COME TOGETHER. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...

THE POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK LATER TONIGHT
WHILE THE POTENT COLD FRONT LIKELY JUMPS TO THE PRESSURE TROUGH OFF
TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY MORNING. THE DRY SLOT ALONG WITH COLD
ADVECTION SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS TO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 70S IN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THE NEXT 24 HRS LOOK TO BE VERY ACTIVE WX WISE...WITH A DOWNWARD
TREND IN ACTIVITY EXPECTED THEREAFTER. CD FNT LOOKS TO BE MOVING
OFFSHORE MIDDAY MON...BRINGING AN END TO THE CNVCTV CHCS AND
USHERING IN THE COOLER AIR THAT WL END WHAT IS TYPICALLY THE
HOTTEST TIME IN THE HOTTEST MONTH OF THE YR (CLIMATOLOGICALLY
TEMPS BEGIN TO DROP IN EARLY AUG). BRZY CONDS AREA XPCTD MON AFTN.

AFTR THAT SVRL DAYS OF M CLR SKIES W/ COMFORTABLE TEMPS ARE XPCTD.
DWPTS IN THE 50S...HARD NOT TO ENJOY THAT IN JUL. HIGH TEMPS TUE-THU
SHOULD BE IN THE LM80S (COOLER IN THE MTNS) W/ LOWS IN THE MU50S.
(WARMER IN THE CITIES). NO REALLY HOT WX ON TAP FOR THE MID ATLC RGN.

AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED B4 THE PRIMARY REASON FOR THIS IS THE UPR
LVL WRN RDG/ERN TROF. DRY AND HOT IN THE W - NW ICC WEB SITE SHOWS
MULTIPLE WILDFIRES ONGOING IN OR/WA - W/ 2 IN WA BEING ESPECIALLY
LARGE. THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO RMN IN PLACE UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT
WKND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED TO MVFR/IFR
LEVELS BRIEFLY DURING TIMES OF CONVECTION.

CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF TO
OUR EAST.

CD FNT WL CROSS THE AREA MON MRNG. LINGERING SHOWERS/ANY LOWER CIGS
SHOULD IMPROVE BY AFTN THEN GUSTY NWRLY WINDS. THESE SHOULD
DIMINISH BY EVE. VFR CONDS MON NGT THRU THU.

&&

.MARINE...

A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR THE
MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO SMITH POINT AND THE
LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER FROM COBB ISLAND TO SMITH POINT. ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE. PLEASE PAY ATTENTION TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS REGARDING WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

SCA IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE WATERS DURG THE DAY MON AS A CD FNT
MOVES OFFSHORE AND WNW WINDS STRENGTHEN. NO PROBS FORESEEN MON
NGT-MIDWK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

A SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS CAUSED TIDAL ANOMALIES BETWEEN ONE HALF AND ONE
FOOT ABOVE NORMAL EARLY THIS MORNING. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY FOR MINOR FLOODING NEAR
HIGH TIDE EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ALONG THE
UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC SHORE NEAR WASHINGTON DC. AT THIS TIME...THE
FLOW APPEARS THAT IT IS LIGHT ENOUGH FOR WATER LEVELS TO REMAIN JUST
BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS NEAR HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING.

THE HIGH TIDE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE LOWER OF THE TWO...SO NO
TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED. THE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TURN OFFSHORE
LATE TONIGHT SO ANOMALIES SHOULD COME DOWN A BIT. THEREFORE...TIDAL
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ531>534-537-539>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ532>534-537-540-541-543.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...BJL/WOODY!








000
FXUS61 KRNK 270648
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
248 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
LATE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH THIS FEATURE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MIDWEST THIS EVENING AND SPREAD EAST TOWARD
OUR AREA BY EARLY SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH COOLER WEATHER
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT SUNDAY...

RADAR INDICATES SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS FILLING IN ACROSS
WEST VIRGINIA AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ENCOUNTERS THE LIFT PROVIDED
BY THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY REMAINS TO KEEP
THESE SHOWERS GOING AS THEY PASS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 460...BUT GREATER UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH. THE
DECAYING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX PASSING ACROSS KENTUCKY MAY PROVIDE
SOME GUSTY WINDS AS IT ENTERS OUR AREA BUT BELIEVE THE THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER IS MINIMAL NOW. WOULD BE MORE CONCERNED WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON RADAR
AND AREA RAIN GAUGES...BUT BELIEVE THE RAINFALL WILL BE MORE
BENEFICIAL THAN PROBLEMATIC DUE TO THE RECENT DRY SPELL. HAVE
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FOR THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT IN THE LATEST
FORECAST UPDATE.

AS OF 210 PM EDT SATURDAY...

BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE SUNDAY-SUNDAY EVENING PERIOD
IN REGARDS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE INITIAL MCS AND LATER
DEVELOPMENT OF PERHAPS ANOTHER SYSTEM JUST TO OUR SW BEFORE MORE
CONVECTION ARRIVES WITH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT SUNDAY EVENING.
GUIDANCE SPREAD REMAINS QUITE LARGE WITH SOLUTIONS VARYING FROM
PUNCHING A WEAKENING SYSTEM ACROSS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 460 SUNDAY
MORNING PER GFS/NCEP WRF...TO KEEPING THE CORE TO THE NW SIMILAR
TO THE NAM/CMC...TO RIDING THE FEATURE SOUTH DOWN THE WESTERN
SLOPES LIKE THE ECMWF TO WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE. FOR
NOW WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE GFS GIVEN FAST MOVEMENT/BACKING FLOW
AND BRING ACTIVITY FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE NORTH SOONER ALONG THE
RESIDUAL WARM FRONT...FOLLOWED BY A LULL CENTRAL/EASTERN SECTIONS
IN THE AFTERNOON AS A STRONG MID LEVEL DRY PUNCH ON DEEP WESTERLY
FLOW ARRIVES IN ITS WAKE. HOWEVER LIKELY TO SEE ANOTHER MCS TAKE
SHAPE OVER THE FAR SW AND WESTERN SECTIONS INTO WEST VA ON THE
TAIL OF THE RESIDUAL EARLIER OUTFLOW SO SOMETHING TO WATCH. DEGREE
OF DEBRIS CLOUDS AND MIXING TO DETERMINE IF ADDED CLUSTERS OF
STORMS REDEVELOP NORTH HALF DURING THE LULL SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND
PERHAPS FARTHER SOUTH INTO SOUTHSIDE VA/NW NC WHERE MAY GET MISSED
BY MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
USED A BLEND OF HIGHS RANGING FROM THE COOLER MET MOS NW UNDER THE
CLOUDS/PRECIP TO THE VERY WARM MAV VALUES SOUTH WHERE LIKELY MORE
SUNSHINE AIDED COMPRESSIONAL WARMING LIKELY TO PUSH THE MID 90S.

THUS WILL GO WITH A PERIOD OF CAT/LIKELY POPS INCLUDING GUSTY
WINDS/HEAVY RAIN MENTION NW INTO EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY...AND ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES INTO SW VA THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY. HOWEVER
WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT GIVEN QPF UNCERTAINTY
AND DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. ELSW...GOING WITH MORE CHANCE
NATURE POPS FOR NOW AND CAN BUMP UP LATER IF THINGS TREND FARTHER
SOUTH THAN EXPECTED. ACTUAL COLD FRONT ALONG WITH BETTER DYNAMICS
AND COLDER AIR ALOFT ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER BAND
OF CONVECTION ATTEMPTING TO CROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES. THUS KEPT
LIKELY POPS SUNDAY EVENING FAR WEST AND CHANCE BLUE RIDGE BUT ONLY
SLIGHT COVERAGE EAST PER CONTINUED DOWNSLOPE. WINDS WILL TURN
GUSTY FROM THE NW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE 85H FRONT CROSSES AND
THE JET MIXES DOWN UNDER THE INCREASING COOL ADVECTION. MAV/MET
MOS SIMILAR AND FOLLOWED FOR LOWS WHICH WILL STILL BE QUITE
MILD...MOSTLY 60S SUNDAY NIGHT UNDER MIXING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...

SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER TROFFING AND COLD
ADVECTION AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM OUT
OF THE UPPER MIDWEST.

UPSLOPING CLOUDS ALONG THE WESTERN FLANKS OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL
BE COMMON...ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS...AND
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSHOWER DUE TO
COOLER AIR ALOFT CLOSER TO TROF AXIS...AND INFLUENCE OF WEAK FORCING
PROVIDED BY SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROFS EMBEDDED IN UPPER FLOW
TO IMPACT AREA BOTH MONDAY AND ON TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL...WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS NOT LIKELY TO CLIMB OUT OF THE 60S ON EITHER MONDAY OR
TUESDAY ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN WHERE UPSLOPING CLOUDS WILL BE
MAXIMIZED.

EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...INFLUENCE OF COLD ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET
SOMEWHAT BY DOWNSLOPING/COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AND BETTER INSOLATION
TO SUPPORT HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 80S...YET STILL A BIT LOWER THAN
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.

NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE LARGELY GOVERNED BY EXTENT OF MIXING AND
CLOUD COVER. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE/IF CLOUDS CAN CLEAR...AND
ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING WILL
MORE READILY OCCUR SHOULD EXPERIENCE READINGS DOWN INTO THE
40S...PERHAPS WELL DOWN INTO THE 40S...ESPECIALLY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AS SURFACE RIDGE PRESSES CLOSER INTO THE AREA AND AS GRADIENT WINDS
RELAX. READINGS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL BE A BIT MILDER...MAINLY
50S...YET STILL 8-10F BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A COLD FRONT WELL OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.
A 1020MB SURFACE HIGH OVER SE MO SHIFTS TO THE NE STATES THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. AT THE MID LEVELS...A RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
WESTERN US...WHILE A TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN US. VERY
LITTLE MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE ONLY
PLACE THAT MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEAK OUT A SHOWER OR TWO IS ACROSS THE
FAR SW...OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY. MOISTURE AND
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THUS
INCREASING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GREATEST CHANCE
POPS ARE ACROSS THE WEST WHERE THE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED.

850MB TEMPS OF +13-15C AND A PERSISTENT WEDGING EASTERLY WIND WILL
ALLOW SURFACE HIGH TEMPS TO BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THURSDAY
WILL BE THE COOLEST MORNING OF THE PERIOD WITH UPPER 40S POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOW TEMPS WILL
MODERATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE DEWPTS INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT SUNDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO ENTER
THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES
OVERHEAD. TRENDS SINCE MIDNIGHT HAVE INDICATED WEAKENING OF THE
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER KY EVEN AS NEW SHOWERS DEVELOP AS THE
ENERGY ENCOUNTERS THE OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN
FURTHER NORTH. WITH DECREASING INSTABILITY DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...BELIEVE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
WEAK...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES.
CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY VFR IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

ONCE CONVECTION OVER KENTUCKY EXITS...MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN IN/WESTERN KY THIS MORNING TO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON. UNSURE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
WILL BE IN PLACE BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL DEPEND ON HOW
MUCH CLOUD COVER REMAINS FROM THE MORNING. CONSIDERING THE
STRENGTHENING WEST WIND DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL HELP KEEP
A LID ON CONVECTION...HAVE SHOWERS IN THE TAFS FOR NOW.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE EVENING...WHEN ANOTHER STRONGER
DISTURBANCE WILL ARRIVE...BRINGING 50KT TO 55KT MID LEVEL WINDS.
BELIEVE STORMS WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL ARRIVE IN SOUTHEAST WV
AT OR AROUND 28/00Z IN THE FORM OF A LINE...AND THEN PASS QUICKLY
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 28/03Z. HIGHEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND NORTHERN VA PIEDMONT...AFFECTING
KLWB/KLYH/KROA/KBCB/KBLF. BELIEVE THE STORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY
PASS THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE DOWNSLOPE WINDFLOW. STRONG WINDS WILL
BE THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS AS THEY PULL THE STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. CANNOT RULE OUT HAIL...AND HEAVY
RAIN WILL ALSO BE LIKELY WITH THE LINE...WHICH WILL PRODUCE IFR
VISIBILITIES FOR EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME. WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
QUIET DOWN TO RESIDUAL SHOWER ACTIVITY/ISOLATED STORMS AFTER
28/04Z AS THE MAIN ENERGY PASSES EAST.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...SO THREAT OF SUB VFR THROUGH MONDAY EXPECTED ACROSS SE
WEST VA PER NW FLOW...BUT LESS ELSEWHERE GIVEN DOWNSLOPE.

SOME GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LIKELY ESPCLY ALONG THE
RIDGES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FOR
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...AND MAINLY VFR. CANNOT RULE OUT LATE NIGHT
FOG KBCB/KLWB BUT LOW LVLS MAY STAY DRY ENOUGH FOR LESS FOG
COVERAGE.

VARIABLE CIGS EXPECTED UNDER ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK. A FEW -SHRA NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS
EASTERN WV...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. TYPICAL FOG
POTENTIAL LESS THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK BECAUSE OF TURBULENT MIXING AND PREVAILING CYCLONIC FLOW.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE UPPER LOW RETROGRADES JUST
WEST OF THE REGION...INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA...
ESPECIALLY IN THE FRI-SUN TIME FRAME.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...NF/RCS
SHORT TERM...WERT
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...NF/RAB



000
FXUS61 KRNK 270648
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
248 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
LATE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH THIS FEATURE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MIDWEST THIS EVENING AND SPREAD EAST TOWARD
OUR AREA BY EARLY SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH COOLER WEATHER
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT SUNDAY...

RADAR INDICATES SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS FILLING IN ACROSS
WEST VIRGINIA AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ENCOUNTERS THE LIFT PROVIDED
BY THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY REMAINS TO KEEP
THESE SHOWERS GOING AS THEY PASS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 460...BUT GREATER UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH. THE
DECAYING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX PASSING ACROSS KENTUCKY MAY PROVIDE
SOME GUSTY WINDS AS IT ENTERS OUR AREA BUT BELIEVE THE THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER IS MINIMAL NOW. WOULD BE MORE CONCERNED WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON RADAR
AND AREA RAIN GAUGES...BUT BELIEVE THE RAINFALL WILL BE MORE
BENEFICIAL THAN PROBLEMATIC DUE TO THE RECENT DRY SPELL. HAVE
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FOR THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT IN THE LATEST
FORECAST UPDATE.

AS OF 210 PM EDT SATURDAY...

BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE SUNDAY-SUNDAY EVENING PERIOD
IN REGARDS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE INITIAL MCS AND LATER
DEVELOPMENT OF PERHAPS ANOTHER SYSTEM JUST TO OUR SW BEFORE MORE
CONVECTION ARRIVES WITH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT SUNDAY EVENING.
GUIDANCE SPREAD REMAINS QUITE LARGE WITH SOLUTIONS VARYING FROM
PUNCHING A WEAKENING SYSTEM ACROSS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 460 SUNDAY
MORNING PER GFS/NCEP WRF...TO KEEPING THE CORE TO THE NW SIMILAR
TO THE NAM/CMC...TO RIDING THE FEATURE SOUTH DOWN THE WESTERN
SLOPES LIKE THE ECMWF TO WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE. FOR
NOW WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE GFS GIVEN FAST MOVEMENT/BACKING FLOW
AND BRING ACTIVITY FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE NORTH SOONER ALONG THE
RESIDUAL WARM FRONT...FOLLOWED BY A LULL CENTRAL/EASTERN SECTIONS
IN THE AFTERNOON AS A STRONG MID LEVEL DRY PUNCH ON DEEP WESTERLY
FLOW ARRIVES IN ITS WAKE. HOWEVER LIKELY TO SEE ANOTHER MCS TAKE
SHAPE OVER THE FAR SW AND WESTERN SECTIONS INTO WEST VA ON THE
TAIL OF THE RESIDUAL EARLIER OUTFLOW SO SOMETHING TO WATCH. DEGREE
OF DEBRIS CLOUDS AND MIXING TO DETERMINE IF ADDED CLUSTERS OF
STORMS REDEVELOP NORTH HALF DURING THE LULL SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND
PERHAPS FARTHER SOUTH INTO SOUTHSIDE VA/NW NC WHERE MAY GET MISSED
BY MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
USED A BLEND OF HIGHS RANGING FROM THE COOLER MET MOS NW UNDER THE
CLOUDS/PRECIP TO THE VERY WARM MAV VALUES SOUTH WHERE LIKELY MORE
SUNSHINE AIDED COMPRESSIONAL WARMING LIKELY TO PUSH THE MID 90S.

THUS WILL GO WITH A PERIOD OF CAT/LIKELY POPS INCLUDING GUSTY
WINDS/HEAVY RAIN MENTION NW INTO EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY...AND ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES INTO SW VA THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY. HOWEVER
WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT GIVEN QPF UNCERTAINTY
AND DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. ELSW...GOING WITH MORE CHANCE
NATURE POPS FOR NOW AND CAN BUMP UP LATER IF THINGS TREND FARTHER
SOUTH THAN EXPECTED. ACTUAL COLD FRONT ALONG WITH BETTER DYNAMICS
AND COLDER AIR ALOFT ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER BAND
OF CONVECTION ATTEMPTING TO CROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES. THUS KEPT
LIKELY POPS SUNDAY EVENING FAR WEST AND CHANCE BLUE RIDGE BUT ONLY
SLIGHT COVERAGE EAST PER CONTINUED DOWNSLOPE. WINDS WILL TURN
GUSTY FROM THE NW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE 85H FRONT CROSSES AND
THE JET MIXES DOWN UNDER THE INCREASING COOL ADVECTION. MAV/MET
MOS SIMILAR AND FOLLOWED FOR LOWS WHICH WILL STILL BE QUITE
MILD...MOSTLY 60S SUNDAY NIGHT UNDER MIXING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...

SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER TROFFING AND COLD
ADVECTION AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM OUT
OF THE UPPER MIDWEST.

UPSLOPING CLOUDS ALONG THE WESTERN FLANKS OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL
BE COMMON...ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS...AND
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSHOWER DUE TO
COOLER AIR ALOFT CLOSER TO TROF AXIS...AND INFLUENCE OF WEAK FORCING
PROVIDED BY SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROFS EMBEDDED IN UPPER FLOW
TO IMPACT AREA BOTH MONDAY AND ON TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL...WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS NOT LIKELY TO CLIMB OUT OF THE 60S ON EITHER MONDAY OR
TUESDAY ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN WHERE UPSLOPING CLOUDS WILL BE
MAXIMIZED.

EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...INFLUENCE OF COLD ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET
SOMEWHAT BY DOWNSLOPING/COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AND BETTER INSOLATION
TO SUPPORT HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 80S...YET STILL A BIT LOWER THAN
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.

NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE LARGELY GOVERNED BY EXTENT OF MIXING AND
CLOUD COVER. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE/IF CLOUDS CAN CLEAR...AND
ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING WILL
MORE READILY OCCUR SHOULD EXPERIENCE READINGS DOWN INTO THE
40S...PERHAPS WELL DOWN INTO THE 40S...ESPECIALLY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AS SURFACE RIDGE PRESSES CLOSER INTO THE AREA AND AS GRADIENT WINDS
RELAX. READINGS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL BE A BIT MILDER...MAINLY
50S...YET STILL 8-10F BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A COLD FRONT WELL OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.
A 1020MB SURFACE HIGH OVER SE MO SHIFTS TO THE NE STATES THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. AT THE MID LEVELS...A RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
WESTERN US...WHILE A TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN US. VERY
LITTLE MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE ONLY
PLACE THAT MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEAK OUT A SHOWER OR TWO IS ACROSS THE
FAR SW...OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY. MOISTURE AND
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THUS
INCREASING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GREATEST CHANCE
POPS ARE ACROSS THE WEST WHERE THE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED.

850MB TEMPS OF +13-15C AND A PERSISTENT WEDGING EASTERLY WIND WILL
ALLOW SURFACE HIGH TEMPS TO BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THURSDAY
WILL BE THE COOLEST MORNING OF THE PERIOD WITH UPPER 40S POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOW TEMPS WILL
MODERATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE DEWPTS INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT SUNDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO ENTER
THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES
OVERHEAD. TRENDS SINCE MIDNIGHT HAVE INDICATED WEAKENING OF THE
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER KY EVEN AS NEW SHOWERS DEVELOP AS THE
ENERGY ENCOUNTERS THE OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN
FURTHER NORTH. WITH DECREASING INSTABILITY DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...BELIEVE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
WEAK...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES.
CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY VFR IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

ONCE CONVECTION OVER KENTUCKY EXITS...MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN IN/WESTERN KY THIS MORNING TO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON. UNSURE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
WILL BE IN PLACE BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL DEPEND ON HOW
MUCH CLOUD COVER REMAINS FROM THE MORNING. CONSIDERING THE
STRENGTHENING WEST WIND DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL HELP KEEP
A LID ON CONVECTION...HAVE SHOWERS IN THE TAFS FOR NOW.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE EVENING...WHEN ANOTHER STRONGER
DISTURBANCE WILL ARRIVE...BRINGING 50KT TO 55KT MID LEVEL WINDS.
BELIEVE STORMS WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL ARRIVE IN SOUTHEAST WV
AT OR AROUND 28/00Z IN THE FORM OF A LINE...AND THEN PASS QUICKLY
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 28/03Z. HIGHEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND NORTHERN VA PIEDMONT...AFFECTING
KLWB/KLYH/KROA/KBCB/KBLF. BELIEVE THE STORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY
PASS THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE DOWNSLOPE WINDFLOW. STRONG WINDS WILL
BE THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS AS THEY PULL THE STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. CANNOT RULE OUT HAIL...AND HEAVY
RAIN WILL ALSO BE LIKELY WITH THE LINE...WHICH WILL PRODUCE IFR
VISIBILITIES FOR EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME. WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
QUIET DOWN TO RESIDUAL SHOWER ACTIVITY/ISOLATED STORMS AFTER
28/04Z AS THE MAIN ENERGY PASSES EAST.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...SO THREAT OF SUB VFR THROUGH MONDAY EXPECTED ACROSS SE
WEST VA PER NW FLOW...BUT LESS ELSEWHERE GIVEN DOWNSLOPE.

SOME GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LIKELY ESPCLY ALONG THE
RIDGES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FOR
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...AND MAINLY VFR. CANNOT RULE OUT LATE NIGHT
FOG KBCB/KLWB BUT LOW LVLS MAY STAY DRY ENOUGH FOR LESS FOG
COVERAGE.

VARIABLE CIGS EXPECTED UNDER ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK. A FEW -SHRA NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS
EASTERN WV...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. TYPICAL FOG
POTENTIAL LESS THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK BECAUSE OF TURBULENT MIXING AND PREVAILING CYCLONIC FLOW.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE UPPER LOW RETROGRADES JUST
WEST OF THE REGION...INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA...
ESPECIALLY IN THE FRI-SUN TIME FRAME.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...NF/RCS
SHORT TERM...WERT
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...NF/RAB




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270624
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
224 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION SUNDAY...THEN CROSSES
THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FINALLY HAVE SEEN CONVECTION OVER ERN/SE VA DIMINISH WITH JUST A
SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER CURRITUCK NC (WHICH WILL
DISSIPATE/BE OUT THE AREA SHORTLY). NW FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE LARGELY
RESPONSIBLE FOR EARLIER ACTIVITY...WILL SLOWLY BECOME MORE FROM
THE WNW OVERNIGHT. NEXT POTENTIAL AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS UPSTREAM
IS WEAKENING ALONG THE APPALACHIANS ALTHOUGH MAY SEE ENOUGH ENERGY
IN THE WARM /HUMID AIRMASS OVERNIGHT TO ADD A 20% POP TO N/NW
COUNTIES. BEHIND THAT...MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE IS PUSHING ESE FROM
THE MID MS VALLEY WITH MCS ONGOING OVER IN/KY BUT THIS SHOULD NOT
REACH THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL AFTER 6 AM. ADJUSTED MIN TEMPS ONLY
SLIGHTLY WITH MOST AREAS HAVING MINS 70-75 F. SKIES AVG MOSTLY
CLEAR OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS...INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CHALLENGING FORECAST SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES
WRT TIMING OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES PROGGED TO MOVE SE AHEAD OF
STRONG COLD FRONT. NAM SUGGESTS TWO ROUNDS OF CONVECTION (LATE MORN
ERLY AFTN WITH A SECOND ONE IN THE EVENING WHILE GFS/SREF SHOW
SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING ON LEE TROF BY ERLY AFTN THEN DRIFTING
IT SE BUT EXPANDING IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTH BY EVENING AS
SECONDARY S/W AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE NW. SPC CONTINUES TO HAVE
ENTIRE FA OUTLOOKED IN SLIGHT RISK WITH A MDT RISK TO THE W OVER W VA.

PARAMETERS FAVOR A LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT BUT A TORNADO
THREAT ALSO EXISTS IF LEADING SUPERCELLS CAN DEVELOP. STAY TUNED.

EXPECT SEVERAL HRS OF HEATING DRNG THE MORNING FOR TMPS TO QUICKLY
RISE THRU THE 80S AND TO BTWN 85-90 BY NOON. TMPS BEORE ANY PCPN
DVLPS SHUD TOP OUT IN THE M-U80S ALONG THE ERN SHORE WITH U80S-L90S
W OF THE BAY WITH SOME M90S ACROSS SRN MOST COUNTIES WHERE MORE
HEATING EXPECTED. CAPPED POPS AT 50% ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES
THROUGH 21Z DROPPING OFF TO SLGHT CHC ACROSS THE SOUTH AFTR 18Z.
THIS SCENARIO FAVORS A GFS/SREF SOLN.

MODELS DEPICT SCNDRY SURGE OF MOISTURE (CONVECTIVE COMPLEX) TRACKING
ACROSS NRN HALF OF FA LATE SUN AFTRN/EVE SO BUMPED POPS INTO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY. CHC POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH. CHC POPS ALL AREAS AFTR
MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 60S.

MONDAY IS LOOKING LESS THREATING (SEVERE WISE) AS MODELS FASTER
WITH THE FRONT MOVG OFF THE COAST. DUE TO LINGERING MOISTURE AND
TROFINESS...WILL KEEP SLGHT CHC POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FA THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS WITH CHC POPS ALONG THE COAST...THEN END PCPN
ACROSS WRN HALF OF FA BUT KEEP CHC POPS GOING ALONG THE SERN
COASTAL AREAS THRU THE AFTRN HOURS. SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE PSBL IN
THE AFTRN ACROSS THE WEST WITH A BKN MID/HIGH LVL CLOUD DECK ARND.
TMPS TRICKY GIVEN WEAK NW FLOW. TRENDED TMPS DOWN TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS WITH THIS PACKAGE...85-90.

BNDRY PROGGED TO STALL IVOF GULF STREAM MON NIGHT AND TUE WHILE A
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH. KEPT SLGHT CHC
POPS ALONG SERN CSTL AREAS MON NITE. LOWS IN THE 60S...XCPT L70S
SERN CSTL AREAS.

DRY TUESDAY ALONG WITH LOWER HUMIDITY AS DP TMPS DROP INTO THE 50S.
PT TO MSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE L80S...U70S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF DIGS OVR THE MID ATLC REGION TUE NGT
INTO EARLY THU...BEFORE RETROGRADING BACK INTO THE OH AND MS VALLEYS
THU AFTN THRU SAT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OFF THE MID ATLC
CST TUE NGT THRU FRI...THEN DRIFTS BACK TWD THE CST FRI NGT THRU
SAT. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR TUE NGT THRU FRI...THEN HAVE ADDED
SLGT CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT AND SAT. A MORE COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL
DOMINATE THE AREA TUE NGT THRU THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
HUMIDITY RETURNS FOR FRI AND SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LWR TO MID 80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S
TO MID 60S WED AND THU MORNGS...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI
MORNG...AND RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AREA OF CONVECTION SLIDING SE FM SW PA/NRN WV/NW VA TO CONT
TRACKING ESE THROUGH EARLY MRNG HRS W/ SOME WEAKENING AS IT DOES
SO. PTNTL FOR PCPN AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...ESP KRIC-KSBY. A
SECOND AREA OF CONVECTION FCST TO EXIT THE MTNS MID/LT MRNG...AND
TRACK OVR THE RGN MIDDAY INTO THIS EVE (ALSO W/ PSBL BRIEF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS/HVY RA). OTRW...SSW WINDS GUSTING TO 15 KT AND SCT-BKN
CLDS XPCD TDA AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W.
THE FRONT IS XPCD TO CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY W/ LO PROB FOR
PCPN AND GUSTY MNLY W WNDS (TO 20 KT). MNLY VFR CONDS MON NGT INTO
WED.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TNGT THRU MON. HI PRES WILL SLIDE
OUT TO SEA TNGT...AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE OH VALLEY. THAT
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MID ATLC REGION DURING SUN...THEN MOVE
ACRS THE AREA AND OFF THE CST LATE SUN NGT INTO MON NGT. EXPECT S
WINDS 15 KT OR LESS TNGT...WITH GUSTS TO ABOUT 20 KT ON THE OCEAN.
IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SSW WINDS 10 TO 20 KT
SUN AND SUN NGT. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE W DURING MON...THEN NW
AND N MON NGT INTO TUE MORNG. GENERALLY NNE WINDS 15 KT OR LESS
EXPECTED FOR TUE THRU THU.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...TMG












000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270624
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
224 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION SUNDAY...THEN CROSSES
THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FINALLY HAVE SEEN CONVECTION OVER ERN/SE VA DIMINISH WITH JUST A
SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER CURRITUCK NC (WHICH WILL
DISSIPATE/BE OUT THE AREA SHORTLY). NW FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE LARGELY
RESPONSIBLE FOR EARLIER ACTIVITY...WILL SLOWLY BECOME MORE FROM
THE WNW OVERNIGHT. NEXT POTENTIAL AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS UPSTREAM
IS WEAKENING ALONG THE APPALACHIANS ALTHOUGH MAY SEE ENOUGH ENERGY
IN THE WARM /HUMID AIRMASS OVERNIGHT TO ADD A 20% POP TO N/NW
COUNTIES. BEHIND THAT...MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE IS PUSHING ESE FROM
THE MID MS VALLEY WITH MCS ONGOING OVER IN/KY BUT THIS SHOULD NOT
REACH THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL AFTER 6 AM. ADJUSTED MIN TEMPS ONLY
SLIGHTLY WITH MOST AREAS HAVING MINS 70-75 F. SKIES AVG MOSTLY
CLEAR OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS...INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CHALLENGING FORECAST SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES
WRT TIMING OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES PROGGED TO MOVE SE AHEAD OF
STRONG COLD FRONT. NAM SUGGESTS TWO ROUNDS OF CONVECTION (LATE MORN
ERLY AFTN WITH A SECOND ONE IN THE EVENING WHILE GFS/SREF SHOW
SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING ON LEE TROF BY ERLY AFTN THEN DRIFTING
IT SE BUT EXPANDING IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTH BY EVENING AS
SECONDARY S/W AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE NW. SPC CONTINUES TO HAVE
ENTIRE FA OUTLOOKED IN SLIGHT RISK WITH A MDT RISK TO THE W OVER W VA.

PARAMETERS FAVOR A LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT BUT A TORNADO
THREAT ALSO EXISTS IF LEADING SUPERCELLS CAN DEVELOP. STAY TUNED.

EXPECT SEVERAL HRS OF HEATING DRNG THE MORNING FOR TMPS TO QUICKLY
RISE THRU THE 80S AND TO BTWN 85-90 BY NOON. TMPS BEORE ANY PCPN
DVLPS SHUD TOP OUT IN THE M-U80S ALONG THE ERN SHORE WITH U80S-L90S
W OF THE BAY WITH SOME M90S ACROSS SRN MOST COUNTIES WHERE MORE
HEATING EXPECTED. CAPPED POPS AT 50% ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES
THROUGH 21Z DROPPING OFF TO SLGHT CHC ACROSS THE SOUTH AFTR 18Z.
THIS SCENARIO FAVORS A GFS/SREF SOLN.

MODELS DEPICT SCNDRY SURGE OF MOISTURE (CONVECTIVE COMPLEX) TRACKING
ACROSS NRN HALF OF FA LATE SUN AFTRN/EVE SO BUMPED POPS INTO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY. CHC POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH. CHC POPS ALL AREAS AFTR
MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 60S.

MONDAY IS LOOKING LESS THREATING (SEVERE WISE) AS MODELS FASTER
WITH THE FRONT MOVG OFF THE COAST. DUE TO LINGERING MOISTURE AND
TROFINESS...WILL KEEP SLGHT CHC POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FA THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS WITH CHC POPS ALONG THE COAST...THEN END PCPN
ACROSS WRN HALF OF FA BUT KEEP CHC POPS GOING ALONG THE SERN
COASTAL AREAS THRU THE AFTRN HOURS. SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE PSBL IN
THE AFTRN ACROSS THE WEST WITH A BKN MID/HIGH LVL CLOUD DECK ARND.
TMPS TRICKY GIVEN WEAK NW FLOW. TRENDED TMPS DOWN TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS WITH THIS PACKAGE...85-90.

BNDRY PROGGED TO STALL IVOF GULF STREAM MON NIGHT AND TUE WHILE A
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH. KEPT SLGHT CHC
POPS ALONG SERN CSTL AREAS MON NITE. LOWS IN THE 60S...XCPT L70S
SERN CSTL AREAS.

DRY TUESDAY ALONG WITH LOWER HUMIDITY AS DP TMPS DROP INTO THE 50S.
PT TO MSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE L80S...U70S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF DIGS OVR THE MID ATLC REGION TUE NGT
INTO EARLY THU...BEFORE RETROGRADING BACK INTO THE OH AND MS VALLEYS
THU AFTN THRU SAT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OFF THE MID ATLC
CST TUE NGT THRU FRI...THEN DRIFTS BACK TWD THE CST FRI NGT THRU
SAT. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR TUE NGT THRU FRI...THEN HAVE ADDED
SLGT CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT AND SAT. A MORE COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL
DOMINATE THE AREA TUE NGT THRU THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
HUMIDITY RETURNS FOR FRI AND SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LWR TO MID 80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S
TO MID 60S WED AND THU MORNGS...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI
MORNG...AND RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AREA OF CONVECTION SLIDING SE FM SW PA/NRN WV/NW VA TO CONT
TRACKING ESE THROUGH EARLY MRNG HRS W/ SOME WEAKENING AS IT DOES
SO. PTNTL FOR PCPN AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...ESP KRIC-KSBY. A
SECOND AREA OF CONVECTION FCST TO EXIT THE MTNS MID/LT MRNG...AND
TRACK OVR THE RGN MIDDAY INTO THIS EVE (ALSO W/ PSBL BRIEF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS/HVY RA). OTRW...SSW WINDS GUSTING TO 15 KT AND SCT-BKN
CLDS XPCD TDA AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W.
THE FRONT IS XPCD TO CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY W/ LO PROB FOR
PCPN AND GUSTY MNLY W WNDS (TO 20 KT). MNLY VFR CONDS MON NGT INTO
WED.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TNGT THRU MON. HI PRES WILL SLIDE
OUT TO SEA TNGT...AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE OH VALLEY. THAT
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MID ATLC REGION DURING SUN...THEN MOVE
ACRS THE AREA AND OFF THE CST LATE SUN NGT INTO MON NGT. EXPECT S
WINDS 15 KT OR LESS TNGT...WITH GUSTS TO ABOUT 20 KT ON THE OCEAN.
IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SSW WINDS 10 TO 20 KT
SUN AND SUN NGT. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE W DURING MON...THEN NW
AND N MON NGT INTO TUE MORNG. GENERALLY NNE WINDS 15 KT OR LESS
EXPECTED FOR TUE THRU THU.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...TMG













000
FXUS61 KRNK 270508
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
108 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
LATE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH THIS FEATURE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MIDWEST THIS EVENING AND SPREAD EAST TOWARD
OUR AREA BY EARLY SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH COOLER WEATHER
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT SUNDAY...

RADAR INDICATES SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS FILLING IN ACROSS
WEST VIRGINIA AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ENCOUNTERS THE LIFT PROVIDED
BY THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY REMAINS TO KEEP
THESE SHOWERS GOING AS THEY PASS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 460...BUT GREATER UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH. THE
DECAYING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX PASSING ACROSS KENTUCKY MAY PROVIDE
SOME GUSTY WINDS AS IT ENTERS OUR AREA BUT BELIEVE THE THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER IS MINIMAL NOW. WOULD BE MORE CONCERNED WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON RADAR
AND AREA RAIN GAUGES...BUT BELIEVE THE RAINFALL WILL BE MORE
BENEFICIAL THAN PROBLEMATIC DUE TO THE RECENT DRY SPELL. HAVE
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FOR THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT IN THE LATEST
FORECAST UPDATE.

AS OF 210 PM EDT SATURDAY...

BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE SUNDAY-SUNDAY EVENING PERIOD
IN REGARDS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE INITIAL MCS AND LATER
DEVELOPMENT OF PERHAPS ANOTHER SYSTEM JUST TO OUR SW BEFORE MORE
CONVECTION ARRIVES WITH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT SUNDAY EVENING.
GUIDANCE SPREAD REMAINS QUITE LARGE WITH SOLUTIONS VARYING FROM
PUNCHING A WEAKENING SYSTEM ACROSS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 460 SUNDAY
MORNING PER GFS/NCEP WRF...TO KEEPING THE CORE TO THE NW SIMILAR
TO THE NAM/CMC...TO RIDING THE FEATURE SOUTH DOWN THE WESTERN
SLOPES LIKE THE ECMWF TO WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE. FOR
NOW WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE GFS GIVEN FAST MOVEMENT/BACKING FLOW
AND BRING ACTIVITY FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE NORTH SOONER ALONG THE
RESIDUAL WARM FRONT...FOLLOWED BY A LULL CENTRAL/EASTERN SECTIONS
IN THE AFTERNOON AS A STRONG MID LEVEL DRY PUNCH ON DEEP WESTERLY
FLOW ARRIVES IN ITS WAKE. HOWEVER LIKELY TO SEE ANOTHER MCS TAKE
SHAPE OVER THE FAR SW AND WESTERN SECTIONS INTO WEST VA ON THE
TAIL OF THE RESIDUAL EARLIER OUTFLOW SO SOMETHING TO WATCH. DEGREE
OF DEBRIS CLOUDS AND MIXING TO DETERMINE IF ADDED CLUSTERS OF
STORMS REDEVELOP NORTH HALF DURING THE LULL SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND
PERHAPS FARTHER SOUTH INTO SOUTHSIDE VA/NW NC WHERE MAY GET MISSED
BY MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
USED A BLEND OF HIGHS RANGING FROM THE COOLER MET MOS NW UNDER THE
CLOUDS/PRECIP TO THE VERY WARM MAV VALUES SOUTH WHERE LIKELY MORE
SUNSHINE AIDED COMPRESSIONAL WARMING LIKELY TO PUSH THE MID 90S.

THUS WILL GO WITH A PERIOD OF CAT/LIKELY POPS INCLUDING GUSTY
WINDS/HEAVY RAIN MENTION NW INTO EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY...AND ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES INTO SW VA THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY. HOWEVER
WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT GIVEN QPF UNCERTAINTY
AND DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. ELSW...GOING WITH MORE CHANCE
NATURE POPS FOR NOW AND CAN BUMP UP LATER IF THINGS TREND FARTHER
SOUTH THAN EXPECTED. ACTUAL COLD FRONT ALONG WITH BETTER DYNAMICS
AND COLDER AIR ALOFT ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER BAND
OF CONVECTION ATTEMPTING TO CROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES. THUS KEPT
LIKELY POPS SUNDAY EVENING FAR WEST AND CHANCE BLUE RIDGE BUT ONLY
SLIGHT COVERAGE EAST PER CONTINUED DOWNSLOPE. WINDS WILL TURN
GUSTY FROM THE NW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE 85H FRONT CROSSES AND
THE JET MIXES DOWN UNDER THE INCREASING COOL ADVECTION. MAV/MET
MOS SIMILAR AND FOLLOWED FOR LOWS WHICH WILL STILL BE QUITE
MILD...MOSTLY 60S SUNDAY NIGHT UNDER MIXING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...

SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER TROFFING AND COLD
ADVECTION AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM OUT
OF THE UPPER MIDWEST.

UPSLOPING CLOUDS ALONG THE WESTERN FLANKS OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL
BE COMMON...ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS...AND
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSHOWER DUE TO
COOLER AIR ALOFT CLOSER TO TROF AXIS...AND INFLUENCE OF WEAK FORCING
PROVIDED BY SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROFS EMBEDDED IN UPPER FLOW
TO IMPACT AREA BOTH MONDAY AND ON TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL...WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS NOT LIKELY TO CLIMB OUT OF THE 60S ON EITHER MONDAY OR
TUESDAY ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN WHERE UPSLOPING CLOUDS WILL BE
MAXIMIZED.

EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...INFLUENCE OF COLD ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET
SOMEWHAT BY DOWNSLOPING/COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AND BETTER INSOLATION
TO SUPPORT HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 80S...YET STILL A BIT LOWER THAN
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.

NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE LARGELY GOVERNED BY EXTENT OF MIXING AND
CLOUD COVER. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE/IF CLOUDS CAN CLEAR...AND
ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING WILL
MORE READILY OCCUR SHOULD EXPERIENCE READINGS DOWN INTO THE
40S...PERHAPS WELL DOWN INTO THE 40S...ESPECIALLY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AS SURFACE RIDGE PRESSES CLOSER INTO THE AREA AND AS GRADIENT WINDS
RELAX. READINGS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL BE A BIT MILDER...MAINLY
50S...YET STILL 8-10F BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A COLD FRONT WELL OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.
A 1020MB SURFACE HIGH OVER SE MO SHIFTS TO THE NE STATES THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. AT THE MID LEVELS...A RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
WESTERN US...WHILE A TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN US. VERY
LITTLE MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE ONLY
PLACE THAT MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEAK OUT A SHOWER OR TWO IS ACROSS THE
FAR SW...OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY. MOISTURE AND
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THUS
INCREASING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GREATEST CHANCE
POPS ARE ACROSS THE WEST WHERE THE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED.

850MB TEMPS OF +13-15C AND A PERSISTENT WEDGING EASTERLY WIND WILL
ALLOW SURFACE HIGH TEMPS TO BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THURSDAY
WILL BE THE COOLEST MORNING OF THE PERIOD WITH UPPER 40S POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOW TEMPS WILL
MODERATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE DEWPTS INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT SATURDAY...

MANY UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR SUNDAY...BUT
THROUGH 06Z...EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE ALL SITES. EXTENSIVE HIGH
CLOUD SHIELD SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF FIRST MCS
MOVING ESE OUT OF OH/WV...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN WV. DO NOT
EXPECT ANY SHRA OR TSRA WITH THIS FIRST SYSTEM AT ANY OF THE TAF
SITES. MID-LEVELS REMAIN VERY DRY AND STABLE ACROSS THE REGION AT
THIS TIME. SECOND COMPLEX OF TSRA ACROSS IN/IL LIKELY TO REACH WV
TAF SITES IN THE 08Z-12Z TIME FRAME. WHILE THIS CONVECTION WILL BE
DYING...EXPECT POTENTIAL GUSTY WINDS AND OCCASIONAL CG LIGHTNING
ALONG WITH MVFR VSBYS IN -SHRA/-TSRA. HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT CIGS
TO DROP BELOW LOW END MVFR AT THIS POINT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
REMNANT -SHRA AND OCCASIONAL -TSRA WILL LINGER WITH THE MORNING
ACTIVITY AS IT TRANSLATES AND DISSIPATES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL ALSO LEAVE NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS
THE REGION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT...AS THE NEXT
AND STRONGER UPPER IMPULSE DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE OH
VALLEY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW CONVECTION TO REFIRE AROUND 18Z THROUGH
THE EVENING/REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. THERE ARE MANY
UNCERTAINTIES PRESENTED BY THE MODELS AS TO THE LOCATION OF THIS
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION...WITH MANY OF THE MODELS SHOWING ONLY
LIMITED CONVECTION EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE OR ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT/SOUTHSIDE AREA. HAVE LEFT THUNDER OUT OF KDAN FOR
NOW...BUT INCLUDED VCTS ELSEWHERE. MOST SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF
CONVECTION MAY TRANSLATE ACROSS NORTHERN VA...NORTH OF I-64 AND
SOUTHWARD THROUGH FAR SW VA/E TN...WEST OF I-77. OVERALL EXPECT
MOSTLY VFR CIGS/VSBYS OUTSIDE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SUNDAY. WINDS
     SSW-SW 5-8KTS OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY STRONGER BLF. AFT 13Z
SUN...EXPECT SW-WSW WINDS 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. STRONGER/GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE IN EARLY MORNING
THUNDERSTORMS BLF/LWB AND AGAIN LOCALLY WITH AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS SUN.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...SO THREAT OF SUB VFR THROUGH MONDAY EXPECTED ACROSS SE
WEST VA PER NW FLOW...BUT LESS ELSEWHERE GIVEN DOWNSLOPE.

SOME GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LIKELY ESPCLY ALONG THE
RIDGES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FOR
TUE- WED...AND MAINLY VFR. CANNOT RULE OUT LATE NIGHT FOG
KBCB/KLWB BUT LOW LVLS MAY STAY DRY ENOUGH FOR LESS FOG COVERAGE.

VARIABLE CIGS EXPECTED UNDER ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK. A FEW -SHRA NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS
EASTERN WV...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. TYPICAL FOG
POTENTIAL LESS THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK BECAUSE OF TURBULENT MIXING AND PREVAILING CYCLONIC FLOW.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE UPPER LOW RETROGRADES JUST
WEST OF THE REGION...INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
SHRA/TSRA...ESPECIALLY IN THE FRI-SUN TIME FRAME.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...NF/RCS
SHORT TERM...WERT
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...JH/RAB



000
FXUS61 KRNK 270508
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
108 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
LATE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH THIS FEATURE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MIDWEST THIS EVENING AND SPREAD EAST TOWARD
OUR AREA BY EARLY SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH COOLER WEATHER
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT SUNDAY...

RADAR INDICATES SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS FILLING IN ACROSS
WEST VIRGINIA AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ENCOUNTERS THE LIFT PROVIDED
BY THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY REMAINS TO KEEP
THESE SHOWERS GOING AS THEY PASS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 460...BUT GREATER UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH. THE
DECAYING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX PASSING ACROSS KENTUCKY MAY PROVIDE
SOME GUSTY WINDS AS IT ENTERS OUR AREA BUT BELIEVE THE THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER IS MINIMAL NOW. WOULD BE MORE CONCERNED WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON RADAR
AND AREA RAIN GAUGES...BUT BELIEVE THE RAINFALL WILL BE MORE
BENEFICIAL THAN PROBLEMATIC DUE TO THE RECENT DRY SPELL. HAVE
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FOR THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT IN THE LATEST
FORECAST UPDATE.

AS OF 210 PM EDT SATURDAY...

BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE SUNDAY-SUNDAY EVENING PERIOD
IN REGARDS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE INITIAL MCS AND LATER
DEVELOPMENT OF PERHAPS ANOTHER SYSTEM JUST TO OUR SW BEFORE MORE
CONVECTION ARRIVES WITH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT SUNDAY EVENING.
GUIDANCE SPREAD REMAINS QUITE LARGE WITH SOLUTIONS VARYING FROM
PUNCHING A WEAKENING SYSTEM ACROSS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 460 SUNDAY
MORNING PER GFS/NCEP WRF...TO KEEPING THE CORE TO THE NW SIMILAR
TO THE NAM/CMC...TO RIDING THE FEATURE SOUTH DOWN THE WESTERN
SLOPES LIKE THE ECMWF TO WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE. FOR
NOW WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE GFS GIVEN FAST MOVEMENT/BACKING FLOW
AND BRING ACTIVITY FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE NORTH SOONER ALONG THE
RESIDUAL WARM FRONT...FOLLOWED BY A LULL CENTRAL/EASTERN SECTIONS
IN THE AFTERNOON AS A STRONG MID LEVEL DRY PUNCH ON DEEP WESTERLY
FLOW ARRIVES IN ITS WAKE. HOWEVER LIKELY TO SEE ANOTHER MCS TAKE
SHAPE OVER THE FAR SW AND WESTERN SECTIONS INTO WEST VA ON THE
TAIL OF THE RESIDUAL EARLIER OUTFLOW SO SOMETHING TO WATCH. DEGREE
OF DEBRIS CLOUDS AND MIXING TO DETERMINE IF ADDED CLUSTERS OF
STORMS REDEVELOP NORTH HALF DURING THE LULL SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND
PERHAPS FARTHER SOUTH INTO SOUTHSIDE VA/NW NC WHERE MAY GET MISSED
BY MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
USED A BLEND OF HIGHS RANGING FROM THE COOLER MET MOS NW UNDER THE
CLOUDS/PRECIP TO THE VERY WARM MAV VALUES SOUTH WHERE LIKELY MORE
SUNSHINE AIDED COMPRESSIONAL WARMING LIKELY TO PUSH THE MID 90S.

THUS WILL GO WITH A PERIOD OF CAT/LIKELY POPS INCLUDING GUSTY
WINDS/HEAVY RAIN MENTION NW INTO EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY...AND ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES INTO SW VA THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY. HOWEVER
WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT GIVEN QPF UNCERTAINTY
AND DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. ELSW...GOING WITH MORE CHANCE
NATURE POPS FOR NOW AND CAN BUMP UP LATER IF THINGS TREND FARTHER
SOUTH THAN EXPECTED. ACTUAL COLD FRONT ALONG WITH BETTER DYNAMICS
AND COLDER AIR ALOFT ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER BAND
OF CONVECTION ATTEMPTING TO CROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES. THUS KEPT
LIKELY POPS SUNDAY EVENING FAR WEST AND CHANCE BLUE RIDGE BUT ONLY
SLIGHT COVERAGE EAST PER CONTINUED DOWNSLOPE. WINDS WILL TURN
GUSTY FROM THE NW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE 85H FRONT CROSSES AND
THE JET MIXES DOWN UNDER THE INCREASING COOL ADVECTION. MAV/MET
MOS SIMILAR AND FOLLOWED FOR LOWS WHICH WILL STILL BE QUITE
MILD...MOSTLY 60S SUNDAY NIGHT UNDER MIXING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...

SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER TROFFING AND COLD
ADVECTION AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM OUT
OF THE UPPER MIDWEST.

UPSLOPING CLOUDS ALONG THE WESTERN FLANKS OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL
BE COMMON...ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS...AND
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSHOWER DUE TO
COOLER AIR ALOFT CLOSER TO TROF AXIS...AND INFLUENCE OF WEAK FORCING
PROVIDED BY SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROFS EMBEDDED IN UPPER FLOW
TO IMPACT AREA BOTH MONDAY AND ON TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL...WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS NOT LIKELY TO CLIMB OUT OF THE 60S ON EITHER MONDAY OR
TUESDAY ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN WHERE UPSLOPING CLOUDS WILL BE
MAXIMIZED.

EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...INFLUENCE OF COLD ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET
SOMEWHAT BY DOWNSLOPING/COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AND BETTER INSOLATION
TO SUPPORT HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 80S...YET STILL A BIT LOWER THAN
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.

NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE LARGELY GOVERNED BY EXTENT OF MIXING AND
CLOUD COVER. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE/IF CLOUDS CAN CLEAR...AND
ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING WILL
MORE READILY OCCUR SHOULD EXPERIENCE READINGS DOWN INTO THE
40S...PERHAPS WELL DOWN INTO THE 40S...ESPECIALLY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AS SURFACE RIDGE PRESSES CLOSER INTO THE AREA AND AS GRADIENT WINDS
RELAX. READINGS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL BE A BIT MILDER...MAINLY
50S...YET STILL 8-10F BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A COLD FRONT WELL OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.
A 1020MB SURFACE HIGH OVER SE MO SHIFTS TO THE NE STATES THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. AT THE MID LEVELS...A RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
WESTERN US...WHILE A TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN US. VERY
LITTLE MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE ONLY
PLACE THAT MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEAK OUT A SHOWER OR TWO IS ACROSS THE
FAR SW...OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY. MOISTURE AND
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THUS
INCREASING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GREATEST CHANCE
POPS ARE ACROSS THE WEST WHERE THE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED.

850MB TEMPS OF +13-15C AND A PERSISTENT WEDGING EASTERLY WIND WILL
ALLOW SURFACE HIGH TEMPS TO BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THURSDAY
WILL BE THE COOLEST MORNING OF THE PERIOD WITH UPPER 40S POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOW TEMPS WILL
MODERATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE DEWPTS INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT SATURDAY...

MANY UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR SUNDAY...BUT
THROUGH 06Z...EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE ALL SITES. EXTENSIVE HIGH
CLOUD SHIELD SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF FIRST MCS
MOVING ESE OUT OF OH/WV...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN WV. DO NOT
EXPECT ANY SHRA OR TSRA WITH THIS FIRST SYSTEM AT ANY OF THE TAF
SITES. MID-LEVELS REMAIN VERY DRY AND STABLE ACROSS THE REGION AT
THIS TIME. SECOND COMPLEX OF TSRA ACROSS IN/IL LIKELY TO REACH WV
TAF SITES IN THE 08Z-12Z TIME FRAME. WHILE THIS CONVECTION WILL BE
DYING...EXPECT POTENTIAL GUSTY WINDS AND OCCASIONAL CG LIGHTNING
ALONG WITH MVFR VSBYS IN -SHRA/-TSRA. HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT CIGS
TO DROP BELOW LOW END MVFR AT THIS POINT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
REMNANT -SHRA AND OCCASIONAL -TSRA WILL LINGER WITH THE MORNING
ACTIVITY AS IT TRANSLATES AND DISSIPATES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL ALSO LEAVE NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS
THE REGION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT...AS THE NEXT
AND STRONGER UPPER IMPULSE DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE OH
VALLEY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW CONVECTION TO REFIRE AROUND 18Z THROUGH
THE EVENING/REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. THERE ARE MANY
UNCERTAINTIES PRESENTED BY THE MODELS AS TO THE LOCATION OF THIS
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION...WITH MANY OF THE MODELS SHOWING ONLY
LIMITED CONVECTION EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE OR ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT/SOUTHSIDE AREA. HAVE LEFT THUNDER OUT OF KDAN FOR
NOW...BUT INCLUDED VCTS ELSEWHERE. MOST SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF
CONVECTION MAY TRANSLATE ACROSS NORTHERN VA...NORTH OF I-64 AND
SOUTHWARD THROUGH FAR SW VA/E TN...WEST OF I-77. OVERALL EXPECT
MOSTLY VFR CIGS/VSBYS OUTSIDE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SUNDAY. WINDS
     SSW-SW 5-8KTS OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY STRONGER BLF. AFT 13Z
SUN...EXPECT SW-WSW WINDS 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. STRONGER/GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE IN EARLY MORNING
THUNDERSTORMS BLF/LWB AND AGAIN LOCALLY WITH AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS SUN.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...SO THREAT OF SUB VFR THROUGH MONDAY EXPECTED ACROSS SE
WEST VA PER NW FLOW...BUT LESS ELSEWHERE GIVEN DOWNSLOPE.

SOME GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LIKELY ESPCLY ALONG THE
RIDGES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FOR
TUE- WED...AND MAINLY VFR. CANNOT RULE OUT LATE NIGHT FOG
KBCB/KLWB BUT LOW LVLS MAY STAY DRY ENOUGH FOR LESS FOG COVERAGE.

VARIABLE CIGS EXPECTED UNDER ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK. A FEW -SHRA NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS
EASTERN WV...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. TYPICAL FOG
POTENTIAL LESS THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK BECAUSE OF TURBULENT MIXING AND PREVAILING CYCLONIC FLOW.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE UPPER LOW RETROGRADES JUST
WEST OF THE REGION...INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
SHRA/TSRA...ESPECIALLY IN THE FRI-SUN TIME FRAME.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...NF/RCS
SHORT TERM...WERT
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...JH/RAB



000
FXUS61 KRNK 270508
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
108 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
LATE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH THIS FEATURE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MIDWEST THIS EVENING AND SPREAD EAST TOWARD
OUR AREA BY EARLY SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH COOLER WEATHER
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT SUNDAY...

RADAR INDICATES SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS FILLING IN ACROSS
WEST VIRGINIA AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ENCOUNTERS THE LIFT PROVIDED
BY THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY REMAINS TO KEEP
THESE SHOWERS GOING AS THEY PASS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 460...BUT GREATER UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH. THE
DECAYING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX PASSING ACROSS KENTUCKY MAY PROVIDE
SOME GUSTY WINDS AS IT ENTERS OUR AREA BUT BELIEVE THE THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER IS MINIMAL NOW. WOULD BE MORE CONCERNED WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON RADAR
AND AREA RAIN GAUGES...BUT BELIEVE THE RAINFALL WILL BE MORE
BENEFICIAL THAN PROBLEMATIC DUE TO THE RECENT DRY SPELL. HAVE
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FOR THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT IN THE LATEST
FORECAST UPDATE.

AS OF 210 PM EDT SATURDAY...

BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE SUNDAY-SUNDAY EVENING PERIOD
IN REGARDS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE INITIAL MCS AND LATER
DEVELOPMENT OF PERHAPS ANOTHER SYSTEM JUST TO OUR SW BEFORE MORE
CONVECTION ARRIVES WITH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT SUNDAY EVENING.
GUIDANCE SPREAD REMAINS QUITE LARGE WITH SOLUTIONS VARYING FROM
PUNCHING A WEAKENING SYSTEM ACROSS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 460 SUNDAY
MORNING PER GFS/NCEP WRF...TO KEEPING THE CORE TO THE NW SIMILAR
TO THE NAM/CMC...TO RIDING THE FEATURE SOUTH DOWN THE WESTERN
SLOPES LIKE THE ECMWF TO WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE. FOR
NOW WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE GFS GIVEN FAST MOVEMENT/BACKING FLOW
AND BRING ACTIVITY FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE NORTH SOONER ALONG THE
RESIDUAL WARM FRONT...FOLLOWED BY A LULL CENTRAL/EASTERN SECTIONS
IN THE AFTERNOON AS A STRONG MID LEVEL DRY PUNCH ON DEEP WESTERLY
FLOW ARRIVES IN ITS WAKE. HOWEVER LIKELY TO SEE ANOTHER MCS TAKE
SHAPE OVER THE FAR SW AND WESTERN SECTIONS INTO WEST VA ON THE
TAIL OF THE RESIDUAL EARLIER OUTFLOW SO SOMETHING TO WATCH. DEGREE
OF DEBRIS CLOUDS AND MIXING TO DETERMINE IF ADDED CLUSTERS OF
STORMS REDEVELOP NORTH HALF DURING THE LULL SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND
PERHAPS FARTHER SOUTH INTO SOUTHSIDE VA/NW NC WHERE MAY GET MISSED
BY MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
USED A BLEND OF HIGHS RANGING FROM THE COOLER MET MOS NW UNDER THE
CLOUDS/PRECIP TO THE VERY WARM MAV VALUES SOUTH WHERE LIKELY MORE
SUNSHINE AIDED COMPRESSIONAL WARMING LIKELY TO PUSH THE MID 90S.

THUS WILL GO WITH A PERIOD OF CAT/LIKELY POPS INCLUDING GUSTY
WINDS/HEAVY RAIN MENTION NW INTO EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY...AND ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES INTO SW VA THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY. HOWEVER
WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT GIVEN QPF UNCERTAINTY
AND DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. ELSW...GOING WITH MORE CHANCE
NATURE POPS FOR NOW AND CAN BUMP UP LATER IF THINGS TREND FARTHER
SOUTH THAN EXPECTED. ACTUAL COLD FRONT ALONG WITH BETTER DYNAMICS
AND COLDER AIR ALOFT ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER BAND
OF CONVECTION ATTEMPTING TO CROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES. THUS KEPT
LIKELY POPS SUNDAY EVENING FAR WEST AND CHANCE BLUE RIDGE BUT ONLY
SLIGHT COVERAGE EAST PER CONTINUED DOWNSLOPE. WINDS WILL TURN
GUSTY FROM THE NW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE 85H FRONT CROSSES AND
THE JET MIXES DOWN UNDER THE INCREASING COOL ADVECTION. MAV/MET
MOS SIMILAR AND FOLLOWED FOR LOWS WHICH WILL STILL BE QUITE
MILD...MOSTLY 60S SUNDAY NIGHT UNDER MIXING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...

SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER TROFFING AND COLD
ADVECTION AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM OUT
OF THE UPPER MIDWEST.

UPSLOPING CLOUDS ALONG THE WESTERN FLANKS OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL
BE COMMON...ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS...AND
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSHOWER DUE TO
COOLER AIR ALOFT CLOSER TO TROF AXIS...AND INFLUENCE OF WEAK FORCING
PROVIDED BY SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROFS EMBEDDED IN UPPER FLOW
TO IMPACT AREA BOTH MONDAY AND ON TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL...WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS NOT LIKELY TO CLIMB OUT OF THE 60S ON EITHER MONDAY OR
TUESDAY ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN WHERE UPSLOPING CLOUDS WILL BE
MAXIMIZED.

EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...INFLUENCE OF COLD ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET
SOMEWHAT BY DOWNSLOPING/COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AND BETTER INSOLATION
TO SUPPORT HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 80S...YET STILL A BIT LOWER THAN
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.

NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE LARGELY GOVERNED BY EXTENT OF MIXING AND
CLOUD COVER. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE/IF CLOUDS CAN CLEAR...AND
ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING WILL
MORE READILY OCCUR SHOULD EXPERIENCE READINGS DOWN INTO THE
40S...PERHAPS WELL DOWN INTO THE 40S...ESPECIALLY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AS SURFACE RIDGE PRESSES CLOSER INTO THE AREA AND AS GRADIENT WINDS
RELAX. READINGS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL BE A BIT MILDER...MAINLY
50S...YET STILL 8-10F BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A COLD FRONT WELL OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.
A 1020MB SURFACE HIGH OVER SE MO SHIFTS TO THE NE STATES THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. AT THE MID LEVELS...A RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
WESTERN US...WHILE A TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN US. VERY
LITTLE MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE ONLY
PLACE THAT MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEAK OUT A SHOWER OR TWO IS ACROSS THE
FAR SW...OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY. MOISTURE AND
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THUS
INCREASING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GREATEST CHANCE
POPS ARE ACROSS THE WEST WHERE THE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED.

850MB TEMPS OF +13-15C AND A PERSISTENT WEDGING EASTERLY WIND WILL
ALLOW SURFACE HIGH TEMPS TO BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THURSDAY
WILL BE THE COOLEST MORNING OF THE PERIOD WITH UPPER 40S POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOW TEMPS WILL
MODERATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE DEWPTS INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT SATURDAY...

MANY UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR SUNDAY...BUT
THROUGH 06Z...EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE ALL SITES. EXTENSIVE HIGH
CLOUD SHIELD SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF FIRST MCS
MOVING ESE OUT OF OH/WV...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN WV. DO NOT
EXPECT ANY SHRA OR TSRA WITH THIS FIRST SYSTEM AT ANY OF THE TAF
SITES. MID-LEVELS REMAIN VERY DRY AND STABLE ACROSS THE REGION AT
THIS TIME. SECOND COMPLEX OF TSRA ACROSS IN/IL LIKELY TO REACH WV
TAF SITES IN THE 08Z-12Z TIME FRAME. WHILE THIS CONVECTION WILL BE
DYING...EXPECT POTENTIAL GUSTY WINDS AND OCCASIONAL CG LIGHTNING
ALONG WITH MVFR VSBYS IN -SHRA/-TSRA. HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT CIGS
TO DROP BELOW LOW END MVFR AT THIS POINT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
REMNANT -SHRA AND OCCASIONAL -TSRA WILL LINGER WITH THE MORNING
ACTIVITY AS IT TRANSLATES AND DISSIPATES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL ALSO LEAVE NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS
THE REGION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT...AS THE NEXT
AND STRONGER UPPER IMPULSE DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE OH
VALLEY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW CONVECTION TO REFIRE AROUND 18Z THROUGH
THE EVENING/REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. THERE ARE MANY
UNCERTAINTIES PRESENTED BY THE MODELS AS TO THE LOCATION OF THIS
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION...WITH MANY OF THE MODELS SHOWING ONLY
LIMITED CONVECTION EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE OR ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT/SOUTHSIDE AREA. HAVE LEFT THUNDER OUT OF KDAN FOR
NOW...BUT INCLUDED VCTS ELSEWHERE. MOST SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF
CONVECTION MAY TRANSLATE ACROSS NORTHERN VA...NORTH OF I-64 AND
SOUTHWARD THROUGH FAR SW VA/E TN...WEST OF I-77. OVERALL EXPECT
MOSTLY VFR CIGS/VSBYS OUTSIDE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SUNDAY. WINDS
     SSW-SW 5-8KTS OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY STRONGER BLF. AFT 13Z
SUN...EXPECT SW-WSW WINDS 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. STRONGER/GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE IN EARLY MORNING
THUNDERSTORMS BLF/LWB AND AGAIN LOCALLY WITH AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS SUN.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...SO THREAT OF SUB VFR THROUGH MONDAY EXPECTED ACROSS SE
WEST VA PER NW FLOW...BUT LESS ELSEWHERE GIVEN DOWNSLOPE.

SOME GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LIKELY ESPCLY ALONG THE
RIDGES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FOR
TUE- WED...AND MAINLY VFR. CANNOT RULE OUT LATE NIGHT FOG
KBCB/KLWB BUT LOW LVLS MAY STAY DRY ENOUGH FOR LESS FOG COVERAGE.

VARIABLE CIGS EXPECTED UNDER ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK. A FEW -SHRA NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS
EASTERN WV...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. TYPICAL FOG
POTENTIAL LESS THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK BECAUSE OF TURBULENT MIXING AND PREVAILING CYCLONIC FLOW.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE UPPER LOW RETROGRADES JUST
WEST OF THE REGION...INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
SHRA/TSRA...ESPECIALLY IN THE FRI-SUN TIME FRAME.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...NF/RCS
SHORT TERM...WERT
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...JH/RAB



000
FXUS61 KRNK 270508
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
108 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
LATE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH THIS FEATURE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MIDWEST THIS EVENING AND SPREAD EAST TOWARD
OUR AREA BY EARLY SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH COOLER WEATHER
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT SUNDAY...

RADAR INDICATES SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS FILLING IN ACROSS
WEST VIRGINIA AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ENCOUNTERS THE LIFT PROVIDED
BY THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY REMAINS TO KEEP
THESE SHOWERS GOING AS THEY PASS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 460...BUT GREATER UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH. THE
DECAYING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX PASSING ACROSS KENTUCKY MAY PROVIDE
SOME GUSTY WINDS AS IT ENTERS OUR AREA BUT BELIEVE THE THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER IS MINIMAL NOW. WOULD BE MORE CONCERNED WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON RADAR
AND AREA RAIN GAUGES...BUT BELIEVE THE RAINFALL WILL BE MORE
BENEFICIAL THAN PROBLEMATIC DUE TO THE RECENT DRY SPELL. HAVE
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FOR THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT IN THE LATEST
FORECAST UPDATE.

AS OF 210 PM EDT SATURDAY...

BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE SUNDAY-SUNDAY EVENING PERIOD
IN REGARDS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE INITIAL MCS AND LATER
DEVELOPMENT OF PERHAPS ANOTHER SYSTEM JUST TO OUR SW BEFORE MORE
CONVECTION ARRIVES WITH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT SUNDAY EVENING.
GUIDANCE SPREAD REMAINS QUITE LARGE WITH SOLUTIONS VARYING FROM
PUNCHING A WEAKENING SYSTEM ACROSS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 460 SUNDAY
MORNING PER GFS/NCEP WRF...TO KEEPING THE CORE TO THE NW SIMILAR
TO THE NAM/CMC...TO RIDING THE FEATURE SOUTH DOWN THE WESTERN
SLOPES LIKE THE ECMWF TO WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE. FOR
NOW WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE GFS GIVEN FAST MOVEMENT/BACKING FLOW
AND BRING ACTIVITY FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE NORTH SOONER ALONG THE
RESIDUAL WARM FRONT...FOLLOWED BY A LULL CENTRAL/EASTERN SECTIONS
IN THE AFTERNOON AS A STRONG MID LEVEL DRY PUNCH ON DEEP WESTERLY
FLOW ARRIVES IN ITS WAKE. HOWEVER LIKELY TO SEE ANOTHER MCS TAKE
SHAPE OVER THE FAR SW AND WESTERN SECTIONS INTO WEST VA ON THE
TAIL OF THE RESIDUAL EARLIER OUTFLOW SO SOMETHING TO WATCH. DEGREE
OF DEBRIS CLOUDS AND MIXING TO DETERMINE IF ADDED CLUSTERS OF
STORMS REDEVELOP NORTH HALF DURING THE LULL SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND
PERHAPS FARTHER SOUTH INTO SOUTHSIDE VA/NW NC WHERE MAY GET MISSED
BY MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
USED A BLEND OF HIGHS RANGING FROM THE COOLER MET MOS NW UNDER THE
CLOUDS/PRECIP TO THE VERY WARM MAV VALUES SOUTH WHERE LIKELY MORE
SUNSHINE AIDED COMPRESSIONAL WARMING LIKELY TO PUSH THE MID 90S.

THUS WILL GO WITH A PERIOD OF CAT/LIKELY POPS INCLUDING GUSTY
WINDS/HEAVY RAIN MENTION NW INTO EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY...AND ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES INTO SW VA THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY. HOWEVER
WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT GIVEN QPF UNCERTAINTY
AND DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. ELSW...GOING WITH MORE CHANCE
NATURE POPS FOR NOW AND CAN BUMP UP LATER IF THINGS TREND FARTHER
SOUTH THAN EXPECTED. ACTUAL COLD FRONT ALONG WITH BETTER DYNAMICS
AND COLDER AIR ALOFT ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER BAND
OF CONVECTION ATTEMPTING TO CROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES. THUS KEPT
LIKELY POPS SUNDAY EVENING FAR WEST AND CHANCE BLUE RIDGE BUT ONLY
SLIGHT COVERAGE EAST PER CONTINUED DOWNSLOPE. WINDS WILL TURN
GUSTY FROM THE NW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE 85H FRONT CROSSES AND
THE JET MIXES DOWN UNDER THE INCREASING COOL ADVECTION. MAV/MET
MOS SIMILAR AND FOLLOWED FOR LOWS WHICH WILL STILL BE QUITE
MILD...MOSTLY 60S SUNDAY NIGHT UNDER MIXING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...

SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER TROFFING AND COLD
ADVECTION AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM OUT
OF THE UPPER MIDWEST.

UPSLOPING CLOUDS ALONG THE WESTERN FLANKS OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL
BE COMMON...ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS...AND
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSHOWER DUE TO
COOLER AIR ALOFT CLOSER TO TROF AXIS...AND INFLUENCE OF WEAK FORCING
PROVIDED BY SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROFS EMBEDDED IN UPPER FLOW
TO IMPACT AREA BOTH MONDAY AND ON TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL...WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS NOT LIKELY TO CLIMB OUT OF THE 60S ON EITHER MONDAY OR
TUESDAY ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN WHERE UPSLOPING CLOUDS WILL BE
MAXIMIZED.

EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...INFLUENCE OF COLD ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET
SOMEWHAT BY DOWNSLOPING/COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AND BETTER INSOLATION
TO SUPPORT HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 80S...YET STILL A BIT LOWER THAN
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.

NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE LARGELY GOVERNED BY EXTENT OF MIXING AND
CLOUD COVER. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE/IF CLOUDS CAN CLEAR...AND
ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING WILL
MORE READILY OCCUR SHOULD EXPERIENCE READINGS DOWN INTO THE
40S...PERHAPS WELL DOWN INTO THE 40S...ESPECIALLY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AS SURFACE RIDGE PRESSES CLOSER INTO THE AREA AND AS GRADIENT WINDS
RELAX. READINGS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL BE A BIT MILDER...MAINLY
50S...YET STILL 8-10F BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A COLD FRONT WELL OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.
A 1020MB SURFACE HIGH OVER SE MO SHIFTS TO THE NE STATES THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. AT THE MID LEVELS...A RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
WESTERN US...WHILE A TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN US. VERY
LITTLE MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE ONLY
PLACE THAT MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEAK OUT A SHOWER OR TWO IS ACROSS THE
FAR SW...OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY. MOISTURE AND
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THUS
INCREASING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GREATEST CHANCE
POPS ARE ACROSS THE WEST WHERE THE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED.

850MB TEMPS OF +13-15C AND A PERSISTENT WEDGING EASTERLY WIND WILL
ALLOW SURFACE HIGH TEMPS TO BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THURSDAY
WILL BE THE COOLEST MORNING OF THE PERIOD WITH UPPER 40S POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOW TEMPS WILL
MODERATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE DEWPTS INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT SATURDAY...

MANY UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR SUNDAY...BUT
THROUGH 06Z...EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE ALL SITES. EXTENSIVE HIGH
CLOUD SHIELD SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF FIRST MCS
MOVING ESE OUT OF OH/WV...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN WV. DO NOT
EXPECT ANY SHRA OR TSRA WITH THIS FIRST SYSTEM AT ANY OF THE TAF
SITES. MID-LEVELS REMAIN VERY DRY AND STABLE ACROSS THE REGION AT
THIS TIME. SECOND COMPLEX OF TSRA ACROSS IN/IL LIKELY TO REACH WV
TAF SITES IN THE 08Z-12Z TIME FRAME. WHILE THIS CONVECTION WILL BE
DYING...EXPECT POTENTIAL GUSTY WINDS AND OCCASIONAL CG LIGHTNING
ALONG WITH MVFR VSBYS IN -SHRA/-TSRA. HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT CIGS
TO DROP BELOW LOW END MVFR AT THIS POINT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
REMNANT -SHRA AND OCCASIONAL -TSRA WILL LINGER WITH THE MORNING
ACTIVITY AS IT TRANSLATES AND DISSIPATES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL ALSO LEAVE NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS
THE REGION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT...AS THE NEXT
AND STRONGER UPPER IMPULSE DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE OH
VALLEY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW CONVECTION TO REFIRE AROUND 18Z THROUGH
THE EVENING/REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. THERE ARE MANY
UNCERTAINTIES PRESENTED BY THE MODELS AS TO THE LOCATION OF THIS
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION...WITH MANY OF THE MODELS SHOWING ONLY
LIMITED CONVECTION EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE OR ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT/SOUTHSIDE AREA. HAVE LEFT THUNDER OUT OF KDAN FOR
NOW...BUT INCLUDED VCTS ELSEWHERE. MOST SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF
CONVECTION MAY TRANSLATE ACROSS NORTHERN VA...NORTH OF I-64 AND
SOUTHWARD THROUGH FAR SW VA/E TN...WEST OF I-77. OVERALL EXPECT
MOSTLY VFR CIGS/VSBYS OUTSIDE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SUNDAY. WINDS
     SSW-SW 5-8KTS OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY STRONGER BLF. AFT 13Z
SUN...EXPECT SW-WSW WINDS 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. STRONGER/GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE IN EARLY MORNING
THUNDERSTORMS BLF/LWB AND AGAIN LOCALLY WITH AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS SUN.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...SO THREAT OF SUB VFR THROUGH MONDAY EXPECTED ACROSS SE
WEST VA PER NW FLOW...BUT LESS ELSEWHERE GIVEN DOWNSLOPE.

SOME GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LIKELY ESPCLY ALONG THE
RIDGES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FOR
TUE- WED...AND MAINLY VFR. CANNOT RULE OUT LATE NIGHT FOG
KBCB/KLWB BUT LOW LVLS MAY STAY DRY ENOUGH FOR LESS FOG COVERAGE.

VARIABLE CIGS EXPECTED UNDER ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK. A FEW -SHRA NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS
EASTERN WV...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. TYPICAL FOG
POTENTIAL LESS THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK BECAUSE OF TURBULENT MIXING AND PREVAILING CYCLONIC FLOW.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE UPPER LOW RETROGRADES JUST
WEST OF THE REGION...INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
SHRA/TSRA...ESPECIALLY IN THE FRI-SUN TIME FRAME.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...NF/RCS
SHORT TERM...WERT
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...JH/RAB



000
FXUS61 KRNK 270150
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
950 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
LATE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH THIS FEATURE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MIDWEST THIS EVENING AND SPREAD EAST TOWARD
OUR AREA BY EARLY SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH COOLER WEATHER
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 736 PM EDT SATURDAY...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE QUICKLY MOVED ACROSS THE
GREENBRIER VALLEY AND ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS THIS EVENING. SINCE
CONVECTION IS WANING MOVING EAST...I HAVE REMOVED POPS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. EYES ONCE AGAIN SHIFT TO THE WEST FOR THE NEXT COMPLEX
THAT SHOULD ENTER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
SUNDAY.

AS OF 210 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THINGS REMAIN QUIET THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL WAVE
PASSING TO THE NE AND UNDER WEAK SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
COULD STILL POP AN ISOLATED SHRA FAR SE GIVEN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGING AND WARM FRONT...OTRW EXPECTING A TRANQUIL
EVENING TO INIT AS THE WARM FRONT EDGES NE INTO THE CWA.

MAIN CONCERN THEN SWINGS INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AS MID LEVEL ENERGY
NOW OVER IA/MO STARTS TO SWING EAST UNDER THE APPROACHING 5H TROF WELL
TO THE NW. MODELS TEND TO AMPLIFY THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE THIS EVENING
AS IT CROSSES VERY HIGH INSTABILITY OVER THE MIDWEST WITH AN EVOLVING
MCS JETTING EAST LATER ON. THIS FEATURE LOOKS ON TRACK TO APPROACH THE
NW SLOPES ALONG THE RETREATING WARM FRONT BY DAYBREAK AIDED BY A VERY
STRONG WESTERLY JET ALOFT. FORWARD MOMENTUM EAST OF THE INDUCED COLD
POOL ALOFT THE KEY TO GETTING THIS SYSTEM IN FASTER WITH AN ENHANCED
SEVERE THREAT THE SOONER IT ARRIVES SINCE LIKELY TO WEAKEN UPON
CROSSING THE RIDGES AROUND 12Z. THEREFORE KEPT HIGH POPS IN SIMILAR TO
EARLIER WITH LOW LIKELYS FAR NW AND CHANCE COVERAGE OUT TO NEAR THE
BLUE RIDGE LATE. LOW TEMPS LOOK QUITE WARM/MUGGY WITH SOME SPOTS
STAYING IN THE 66-73 RANGE PER RISING DEWPOINTS AND CLOUDS/MIXING
LATE.

BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE SUNDAY-SUNDAY EVENING PERIOD IN
REGARDS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE INITIAL MCS AND LATER DEVELOPMENT OF
PERHAPS ANOTHER SYSTEM JUST TO OUR SW BEFORE MORE CONVECTION ARRIVES
WITH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT SUNDAY EVENING. GUIDANCE SPREAD REMAINS
QUITE LARGE WITH SOLUTIONS VARYING FROM PUNCHING A WEAKENING SYSTEM
ACROSS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 460 SUNDAY MORNING PER GFS/NCEP WRF...TO
KEEPING THE CORE TO THE NW SIMILAR TO THE NAM/CMC...TO RIDING THE
FEATURE SOUTH DOWN THE WESTERN SLOPES LIKE THE ECMWF TO WHERE
BETTER INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE. FOR NOW WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE
GFS GIVEN FAST MOVEMENT/BACKING FLOW AND BRING ACTIVITY FARTHER
EAST ACROSS THE NORTH SOONER ALONG THE RESIDUAL WARM
FRONT...FOLLOWED BY A LULL CENTRAL/EASTERN SECTIONS IN THE
AFTERNOON AS A STRONG MID LEVEL DRY PUNCH ON DEEP WESTERLY FLOW
ARRIVES IN ITS WAKE. HOWEVER LIKELY TO SEE ANOTHER MCS TAKE SHAPE
OVER THE FAR SW AND WESTERN SECTIONS INTO WEST VA ON THE TAIL OF
THE RESIDUAL EARLIER OUTFLOW SO SOMETHING TO WATCH. DEGREE OF
DEBRIS CLOUDS AND MIXING TO DETERMINE IF ADDED CLUSTERS OF STORMS
REDEVELOP NORTH HALF DURING THE LULL SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND
PERHAPS FARTHER SOUTH INTO SOUTHSIDE VA/NW NC WHERE MAY GET MISSED
BY MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
USED A BLEND OF HIGHS RANGING FROM THE COOLER MET MOS NW UNDER THE
CLOUDS/PRECIP TO THE VERY WARM MAV VALUES SOUTH WHERE LIKELY MORE
SUNSHINE AIDED COMPRESSIONAL WARMING LIKELY TO PUSH THE MID 90S.

THUS WILL GO WITH A PERIOD OF CAT/LIKELY POPS INCLUDING GUSTY
WINDS/HEAVY RAIN MENTION NW INTO EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY...AND ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES INTO SW VA THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY. HOWEVER
WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT GIVEN QPF UNCERTAINTY
AND DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. ELSW...GOING WITH MORE CHANCE
NATURE POPS FOR NOW AND CAN BUMP UP LATER IF THINGS TREND FARTHER
SOUTH THAN EXPECTED. ACTUAL COLD FRONT ALONG WITH BETTER DYNAMICS
AND COLDER AIR ALOFT ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER BAND
OF CONVECTION ATTEMPTING TO CROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES. THUS KEPT
LIKELY POPS SUNDAY EVENING FAR WEST AND CHANCE BLUE RIDGE BUT ONLY
SLIGHT COVERAGE EAST PER CONTINUED DOWNSLOPE. WINDS WILL TURN
GUSTY FROM THE NW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE 85H FRONT CROSSES AND
THE JET MIXES DOWN UNDER THE INCREASING COOL ADVECTION. MAV/MET
MOS SIMILAR AND FOLLOWED FOR LOWS WHICH WILL STILL BE QUITE
MILD...MOSTLY 60S SUNDAY NIGHT UNDER MIXING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...

SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER TROFFING AND COLD
ADVECTION AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM OUT
OF THE UPPER MIDWEST.

UPSLOPING CLOUDS ALONG THE WESTERN FLANKS OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL
BE COMMON...ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS...AND
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSHOWER DUE TO
COOLER AIR ALOFT CLOSER TO TROF AXIS...AND INFLUENCE OF WEAK FORCING
PROVIDED BY SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROFS EMBEDDED IN UPPER FLOW
TO IMPACT AREA BOTH MONDAY AND ON TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL...WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS NOT LIKELY TO CLIMB OUT OF THE 60S ON EITHER MONDAY OR
TUESDAY ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN WHERE UPSLOPING CLOUDS WILL BE
MAXIMIZED.

EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...INFLUENCE OF COLD ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET
SOMEWHAT BY DOWNSLOPING/COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AND BETTER INSOLATION
TO SUPPORT HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 80S...YET STILL A BIT LOWER THAN
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.

NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE LARGELY GOVERNED BY EXTENT OF MIXING AND
CLOUD COVER. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE/IF CLOUDS CAN CLEAR...AND
ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING WILL
MORE READILY OCCUR SHOULD EXPERIENCE READINGS DOWN INTO THE
40S...PERHAPS WELL DOWN INTO THE 40S...ESPECIALLY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AS SURFACE RIDGE PRESSES CLOSER INTO THE AREA AND AS GRADIENT WINDS
RELAX. READINGS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL BE A BIT MILDER...MAINLY
50S...YET STILL 8-10F BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A COLD FRONT WELL OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.
A 1020MB SURFACE HIGH OVER SE MO SHIFTS TO THE NE STATES THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. AT THE MID LEVELS...A RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
WESTERN US...WHILE A TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN US. VERY
LITTLE MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE ONLY
PLACE THAT MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEAK OUT A SHOWER OR TWO IS ACROSS THE
FAR SW...OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY. MOISTURE AND
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THUS
INCREASING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GREATEST CHANCE
POPS ARE ACROSS THE WEST WHERE THE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED.

850MB TEMPS OF +13-15C AND A PERSISTENT WEDGING EASTERLY WIND WILL
ALLOW SURFACE HIGH TEMPS TO BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THURSDAY
WILL BE THE COOLEST MORNING OF THE PERIOD WITH UPPER 40S POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOW TEMPS WILL
MODERATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE DEWPTS INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT SATURDAY...

MANY UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR SUNDAY...BUT
THROUGH 06Z...EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE ALL SITES. EXTENSIVE HIGH
CLOUD SHIELD SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF FIRST MCS
MOVING ESE OUT OF OH/WV...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN WV. DO NOT
EXPECT ANY SHRA OR TSRA WITH THIS FIRST SYSTEM AT ANY OF THE TAF
SITES. MID-LEVELS REMAIN VERY DRY AND STABLE ACROSS THE REGION AT
THIS TIME. SECOND COMPLEX OF TSRA ACROSS IN/IL LIKELY TO REACH WV
TAF SITES IN THE 08Z-12Z TIME FRAME. WHILE THIS CONVECTION WILL BE
DYING...EXPECT POTENTIAL GUSTY WINDS AND OCCASIONAL CG LIGHTNING
ALONG WITH MVFR VSBYS IN -SHRA/-TSRA. HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT CIGS
TO DROP BELOW LOW END MVFR AT THIS POINT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
REMNANT -SHRA AND OCCASIONAL -TSRA WILL LINGER WITH THE MORNING
ACTIVITY AS IT TRANSLATES AND DISSIPATES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL ALSO LEAVE NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS
THE REGION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT...AS THE NEXT
AND STRONGER UPPER IMPULSE DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE OH
VALLEY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW CONVECTION TO REFIRE AROUND 18Z THROUGH
THE EVENING/REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. THERE ARE MANY
UNCERTAINTIES PRESENTED BY THE MODELS AS TO THE LOCATION OF THIS
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION...WITH MANY OF THE MODELS SHOWING ONLY
LIMITED CONVECTION EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE OR ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT/SOUTHSIDE AREA. HAVE LEFT THUNDER OUT OF KDAN FOR
NOW...BUT INCLUDED VCTS ELSEWHERE. MOST SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF
CONVECTION MAY TRANSLATE ACROSS NORTHERN VA...NORTH OF I-64 AND
SOUTHWARD THROUGH FAR SW VA/E TN...WEST OF I-77. OVERALL EXPECT
MOSTLY VFR CIGS/VSBYS OUTSIDE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SUNDAY. WINDS
     SSW-SW 5-8KTS OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY STRONGER BLF. AFT 13Z
SUN...EXPECT SW-WSW WINDS 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. STRONGER/GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE IN EARLY MORNING
THUNDERSTORMS BLF/LWB AND AGAIN LOCALLY WITH AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS SUN.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...SO THREAT OF SUB VFR THROUGH MONDAY EXPECTED ACROSS SE
WEST VA PER NW FLOW...BUT LESS ELSEWHERE GIVEN DOWNSLOPE.

SOME GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LIKELY ESPCLY ALONG THE
RIDGES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FOR
TUE- WED...AND MAINLY VFR. CANNOT RULE OUT LATE NIGHT FOG
KBCB/KLWB BUT LOW LVLS MAY STAY DRY ENOUGH FOR LESS FOG COVERAGE.

VARIABLE CIGS EXPECTED UNDER ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK. A FEW -SHRA NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS
EASTERN WV...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. TYPICAL FOG
POTENTIAL LESS THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK BECAUSE OF TURBULENT MIXING AND PREVAILING CYCLONIC FLOW.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE UPPER LOW RETROGRADES JUST
WEST OF THE REGION...INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
SHRA/TSRA...ESPECIALLY IN THE FRI-SUN TIME FRAME.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/RCS/WP
SHORT TERM...WERT
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...JH/RAB



000
FXUS61 KRNK 270150
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
950 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
LATE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH THIS FEATURE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MIDWEST THIS EVENING AND SPREAD EAST TOWARD
OUR AREA BY EARLY SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH COOLER WEATHER
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 736 PM EDT SATURDAY...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE QUICKLY MOVED ACROSS THE
GREENBRIER VALLEY AND ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS THIS EVENING. SINCE
CONVECTION IS WANING MOVING EAST...I HAVE REMOVED POPS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. EYES ONCE AGAIN SHIFT TO THE WEST FOR THE NEXT COMPLEX
THAT SHOULD ENTER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
SUNDAY.

AS OF 210 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THINGS REMAIN QUIET THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL WAVE
PASSING TO THE NE AND UNDER WEAK SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
COULD STILL POP AN ISOLATED SHRA FAR SE GIVEN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGING AND WARM FRONT...OTRW EXPECTING A TRANQUIL
EVENING TO INIT AS THE WARM FRONT EDGES NE INTO THE CWA.

MAIN CONCERN THEN SWINGS INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AS MID LEVEL ENERGY
NOW OVER IA/MO STARTS TO SWING EAST UNDER THE APPROACHING 5H TROF WELL
TO THE NW. MODELS TEND TO AMPLIFY THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE THIS EVENING
AS IT CROSSES VERY HIGH INSTABILITY OVER THE MIDWEST WITH AN EVOLVING
MCS JETTING EAST LATER ON. THIS FEATURE LOOKS ON TRACK TO APPROACH THE
NW SLOPES ALONG THE RETREATING WARM FRONT BY DAYBREAK AIDED BY A VERY
STRONG WESTERLY JET ALOFT. FORWARD MOMENTUM EAST OF THE INDUCED COLD
POOL ALOFT THE KEY TO GETTING THIS SYSTEM IN FASTER WITH AN ENHANCED
SEVERE THREAT THE SOONER IT ARRIVES SINCE LIKELY TO WEAKEN UPON
CROSSING THE RIDGES AROUND 12Z. THEREFORE KEPT HIGH POPS IN SIMILAR TO
EARLIER WITH LOW LIKELYS FAR NW AND CHANCE COVERAGE OUT TO NEAR THE
BLUE RIDGE LATE. LOW TEMPS LOOK QUITE WARM/MUGGY WITH SOME SPOTS
STAYING IN THE 66-73 RANGE PER RISING DEWPOINTS AND CLOUDS/MIXING
LATE.

BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE SUNDAY-SUNDAY EVENING PERIOD IN
REGARDS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE INITIAL MCS AND LATER DEVELOPMENT OF
PERHAPS ANOTHER SYSTEM JUST TO OUR SW BEFORE MORE CONVECTION ARRIVES
WITH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT SUNDAY EVENING. GUIDANCE SPREAD REMAINS
QUITE LARGE WITH SOLUTIONS VARYING FROM PUNCHING A WEAKENING SYSTEM
ACROSS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 460 SUNDAY MORNING PER GFS/NCEP WRF...TO
KEEPING THE CORE TO THE NW SIMILAR TO THE NAM/CMC...TO RIDING THE
FEATURE SOUTH DOWN THE WESTERN SLOPES LIKE THE ECMWF TO WHERE
BETTER INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE. FOR NOW WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE
GFS GIVEN FAST MOVEMENT/BACKING FLOW AND BRING ACTIVITY FARTHER
EAST ACROSS THE NORTH SOONER ALONG THE RESIDUAL WARM
FRONT...FOLLOWED BY A LULL CENTRAL/EASTERN SECTIONS IN THE
AFTERNOON AS A STRONG MID LEVEL DRY PUNCH ON DEEP WESTERLY FLOW
ARRIVES IN ITS WAKE. HOWEVER LIKELY TO SEE ANOTHER MCS TAKE SHAPE
OVER THE FAR SW AND WESTERN SECTIONS INTO WEST VA ON THE TAIL OF
THE RESIDUAL EARLIER OUTFLOW SO SOMETHING TO WATCH. DEGREE OF
DEBRIS CLOUDS AND MIXING TO DETERMINE IF ADDED CLUSTERS OF STORMS
REDEVELOP NORTH HALF DURING THE LULL SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND
PERHAPS FARTHER SOUTH INTO SOUTHSIDE VA/NW NC WHERE MAY GET MISSED
BY MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
USED A BLEND OF HIGHS RANGING FROM THE COOLER MET MOS NW UNDER THE
CLOUDS/PRECIP TO THE VERY WARM MAV VALUES SOUTH WHERE LIKELY MORE
SUNSHINE AIDED COMPRESSIONAL WARMING LIKELY TO PUSH THE MID 90S.

THUS WILL GO WITH A PERIOD OF CAT/LIKELY POPS INCLUDING GUSTY
WINDS/HEAVY RAIN MENTION NW INTO EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY...AND ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES INTO SW VA THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY. HOWEVER
WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT GIVEN QPF UNCERTAINTY
AND DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. ELSW...GOING WITH MORE CHANCE
NATURE POPS FOR NOW AND CAN BUMP UP LATER IF THINGS TREND FARTHER
SOUTH THAN EXPECTED. ACTUAL COLD FRONT ALONG WITH BETTER DYNAMICS
AND COLDER AIR ALOFT ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER BAND
OF CONVECTION ATTEMPTING TO CROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES. THUS KEPT
LIKELY POPS SUNDAY EVENING FAR WEST AND CHANCE BLUE RIDGE BUT ONLY
SLIGHT COVERAGE EAST PER CONTINUED DOWNSLOPE. WINDS WILL TURN
GUSTY FROM THE NW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE 85H FRONT CROSSES AND
THE JET MIXES DOWN UNDER THE INCREASING COOL ADVECTION. MAV/MET
MOS SIMILAR AND FOLLOWED FOR LOWS WHICH WILL STILL BE QUITE
MILD...MOSTLY 60S SUNDAY NIGHT UNDER MIXING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...

SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER TROFFING AND COLD
ADVECTION AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM OUT
OF THE UPPER MIDWEST.

UPSLOPING CLOUDS ALONG THE WESTERN FLANKS OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL
BE COMMON...ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS...AND
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSHOWER DUE TO
COOLER AIR ALOFT CLOSER TO TROF AXIS...AND INFLUENCE OF WEAK FORCING
PROVIDED BY SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROFS EMBEDDED IN UPPER FLOW
TO IMPACT AREA BOTH MONDAY AND ON TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL...WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS NOT LIKELY TO CLIMB OUT OF THE 60S ON EITHER MONDAY OR
TUESDAY ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN WHERE UPSLOPING CLOUDS WILL BE
MAXIMIZED.

EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...INFLUENCE OF COLD ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET
SOMEWHAT BY DOWNSLOPING/COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AND BETTER INSOLATION
TO SUPPORT HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 80S...YET STILL A BIT LOWER THAN
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.

NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE LARGELY GOVERNED BY EXTENT OF MIXING AND
CLOUD COVER. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE/IF CLOUDS CAN CLEAR...AND
ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING WILL
MORE READILY OCCUR SHOULD EXPERIENCE READINGS DOWN INTO THE
40S...PERHAPS WELL DOWN INTO THE 40S...ESPECIALLY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AS SURFACE RIDGE PRESSES CLOSER INTO THE AREA AND AS GRADIENT WINDS
RELAX. READINGS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL BE A BIT MILDER...MAINLY
50S...YET STILL 8-10F BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A COLD FRONT WELL OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.
A 1020MB SURFACE HIGH OVER SE MO SHIFTS TO THE NE STATES THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. AT THE MID LEVELS...A RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
WESTERN US...WHILE A TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN US. VERY
LITTLE MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE ONLY
PLACE THAT MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEAK OUT A SHOWER OR TWO IS ACROSS THE
FAR SW...OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY. MOISTURE AND
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THUS
INCREASING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GREATEST CHANCE
POPS ARE ACROSS THE WEST WHERE THE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED.

850MB TEMPS OF +13-15C AND A PERSISTENT WEDGING EASTERLY WIND WILL
ALLOW SURFACE HIGH TEMPS TO BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THURSDAY
WILL BE THE COOLEST MORNING OF THE PERIOD WITH UPPER 40S POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOW TEMPS WILL
MODERATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE DEWPTS INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT SATURDAY...

MANY UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR SUNDAY...BUT
THROUGH 06Z...EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE ALL SITES. EXTENSIVE HIGH
CLOUD SHIELD SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF FIRST MCS
MOVING ESE OUT OF OH/WV...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN WV. DO NOT
EXPECT ANY SHRA OR TSRA WITH THIS FIRST SYSTEM AT ANY OF THE TAF
SITES. MID-LEVELS REMAIN VERY DRY AND STABLE ACROSS THE REGION AT
THIS TIME. SECOND COMPLEX OF TSRA ACROSS IN/IL LIKELY TO REACH WV
TAF SITES IN THE 08Z-12Z TIME FRAME. WHILE THIS CONVECTION WILL BE
DYING...EXPECT POTENTIAL GUSTY WINDS AND OCCASIONAL CG LIGHTNING
ALONG WITH MVFR VSBYS IN -SHRA/-TSRA. HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT CIGS
TO DROP BELOW LOW END MVFR AT THIS POINT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
REMNANT -SHRA AND OCCASIONAL -TSRA WILL LINGER WITH THE MORNING
ACTIVITY AS IT TRANSLATES AND DISSIPATES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL ALSO LEAVE NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS
THE REGION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT...AS THE NEXT
AND STRONGER UPPER IMPULSE DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE OH
VALLEY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW CONVECTION TO REFIRE AROUND 18Z THROUGH
THE EVENING/REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. THERE ARE MANY
UNCERTAINTIES PRESENTED BY THE MODELS AS TO THE LOCATION OF THIS
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION...WITH MANY OF THE MODELS SHOWING ONLY
LIMITED CONVECTION EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE OR ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT/SOUTHSIDE AREA. HAVE LEFT THUNDER OUT OF KDAN FOR
NOW...BUT INCLUDED VCTS ELSEWHERE. MOST SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF
CONVECTION MAY TRANSLATE ACROSS NORTHERN VA...NORTH OF I-64 AND
SOUTHWARD THROUGH FAR SW VA/E TN...WEST OF I-77. OVERALL EXPECT
MOSTLY VFR CIGS/VSBYS OUTSIDE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SUNDAY. WINDS
     SSW-SW 5-8KTS OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY STRONGER BLF. AFT 13Z
SUN...EXPECT SW-WSW WINDS 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. STRONGER/GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE IN EARLY MORNING
THUNDERSTORMS BLF/LWB AND AGAIN LOCALLY WITH AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS SUN.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...SO THREAT OF SUB VFR THROUGH MONDAY EXPECTED ACROSS SE
WEST VA PER NW FLOW...BUT LESS ELSEWHERE GIVEN DOWNSLOPE.

SOME GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LIKELY ESPCLY ALONG THE
RIDGES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FOR
TUE- WED...AND MAINLY VFR. CANNOT RULE OUT LATE NIGHT FOG
KBCB/KLWB BUT LOW LVLS MAY STAY DRY ENOUGH FOR LESS FOG COVERAGE.

VARIABLE CIGS EXPECTED UNDER ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK. A FEW -SHRA NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS
EASTERN WV...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. TYPICAL FOG
POTENTIAL LESS THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK BECAUSE OF TURBULENT MIXING AND PREVAILING CYCLONIC FLOW.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE UPPER LOW RETROGRADES JUST
WEST OF THE REGION...INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
SHRA/TSRA...ESPECIALLY IN THE FRI-SUN TIME FRAME.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/RCS/WP
SHORT TERM...WERT
LONG TERM...CF
AVIATION...JH/RAB




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270146
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
946 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION SUNDAY...THEN CROSSES
THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
FINALLY HAVE SEEN CONVECTION OVER ERN/SE VA DIMINISH WITH JUST A
SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER CURRITUCK NC (WHICH WILL
DISSIPATE/BE OUT THE AREA SHORTLY). NW FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE LARGELY
RESPONSIBLE FOR EARLIER ACTIVITY...WILL SLOWLY BECOME MORE FROM
THE WNW OVERNIGHT. NEXT POTENTIAL AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS UPSTREAM
IS WEAKENING ALONG THE APPALACHIANS ALTHOUGH MAY SEE ENOUGH ENERGY
IN THE WARM /HUMID AIRMASS OVERNIGHT TO ADD A 20% POP TO N/NW
COUNTIES. BEHIND THAT...MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE IS PUSHING ESE FROM
THE MID MS VALLEY WITH MCS ONGOING OVER IN/KY BUT THIS SHOULD NOT
REACH THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL AFTER 6 AM. ADJUSTED MIN TEMPS ONLY
SLIGHTLY WITH MOST AREAS HAVING MINS 70-75 F. SKIES AVG MOSTLY
CLEAR OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS...INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CHALLENGING FORECAST SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES
WRT TIMING OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES PROGGED TO MOVE SE AHEAD OF
STRONG COLD FRONT. NAM SUGGESTS TWO ROUNDS OF CONVECTION (LATE MORN
ERLY AFTN WITH A SECOND ONE IN THE EVENING WHILE GFS/SREF SHOW
SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING ON LEE TROF BY ERLY AFTN THEN DRIFTING
IT SE BUT EXPANDING IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTH BY EVENING AS
SECONDARY S/W AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE NW. SPC CONTINUES TO HAVE
ENTIRE FA OUTLOOKED IN SLIGHT RISK WITH A MDT RISK TO THE W OVER W VA.

PARAMETERS FAVOR A LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT BUT A TORNADO
THREAT ALSO EXISTS IF LEADING SUPERCELLS CAN DEVELOP. STAY TUNED.

EXPECT SEVERAL HRS OF HEATING DRNG THE MORNING FOR TMPS TO QUICKLY
RISE THRU THE 80S AND TO BTWN 85-90 BY NOON. TMPS BEORE ANY PCPN
DVLPS SHUD TOP OUT IN THE M-U80S ALONG THE ERN SHORE WITH U80S-L90S
W OF THE BAY WITH SOME M90S ACROSS SRN MOST COUNTIES WHERE MORE
HEATING EXPECTED. CAPPED POPS AT 50% ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES
THROUGH 21Z DROPPING OFF TO SLGHT CHC ACROSS THE SOUTH AFTR 18Z.
THIS SCENARIO FAVORS A GFS/SREF SOLN.

MODELS DEPICT SCNDRY SURGE OF MOISTURE (CONVECTIVE COMPLEX) TRACKING
ACROSS NRN HALF OF FA LATE SUN AFTRN/EVE SO BUMPED POPS INTO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY. CHC POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH. CHC POPS ALL AREAS AFTR
MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 60S.

MONDAY IS LOOKING LESS THREATING (SEVERE WISE) AS MODELS FASTER
WITH THE FRONT MOVG OFF THE COAST. DUE TO LINGERING MOISTURE AND
TROFINESS...WILL KEEP SLGHT CHC POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FA THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS WITH CHC POPS ALONG THE COAST...THEN END PCPN
ACROSS WRN HALF OF FA BUT KEEP CHC POPS GOING ALONG THE SERN
COASTAL AREAS THRU THE AFTRN HOURS. SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE PSBL IN
THE AFTRN ACROSS THE WEST WITH A BKN MID/HIGH LVL CLOUD DECK ARND.
TMPS TRICKY GIVEN WEAK NW FLOW. TRENDED TMPS DOWN TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS WITH THIS PACKAGE...85-90.

BNDRY PROGGED TO STALL IVOF GULF STREAM MON NIGHT AND TUE WHILE A
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH. KEPT SLGHT CHC
POPS ALONG SERN CSTL AREAS MON NITE. LOWS IN THE 60S...XCPT L70S
SERN CSTL AREAS.

DRY TUESDAY ALONG WITH LOWER HUMIDITY AS DP TMPS DROP INTO THE 50S.
PT TO MSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE L80S...U70S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF DIGS OVR THE MID ATLC REGION TUE NGT
INTO EARLY THU...BEFORE RETROGRADING BACK INTO THE OH AND MS VALLEYS
THU AFTN THRU SAT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OFF THE MID ATLC
CST TUE NGT THRU FRI...THEN DRIFTS BACK TWD THE CST FRI NGT THRU
SAT. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR TUE NGT THRU FRI...THEN HAVE ADDED
SLGT CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT AND SAT. A MORE COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL
DOMINATE THE AREA TUE NGT THRU THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
HUMIDITY RETURNS FOR FRI AND SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LWR TO MID 80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S
TO MID 60S WED AND THU MORNGS...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI
MORNG...AND RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK SFC HI PRES OFF THE CST...WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING ALONG THIS TROUGH...AIDED BY
PASSING MID-LEVEL ENERGY. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE 18Z TAF PERIOD...ASIDE FROM A PASSING SHOWER LIMITING
VISIBILITIES AT KSBY THROUGH 20Z.

S-SW WINDS GUSTING TO 15 KT AND SCT-BKN CLOUDS EXPECTED SUN AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W. POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY CONVECTION DURING THE AFTN THROUGH THE
EVENING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TNGT THRU MON. HI PRES WILL SLIDE
OUT TO SEA TNGT...AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE OH VALLEY. THAT
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MID ATLC REGION DURING SUN...THEN MOVE
ACRS THE AREA AND OFF THE CST LATE SUN NGT INTO MON NGT. EXPECT S
WINDS 15 KT OR LESS TNGT...WITH GUSTS TO ABOUT 20 KT ON THE OCEAN.
IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SSW WINDS 10 TO 20 KT
SUN AND SUN NGT. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE W DURING MON...THEN NW
AND N MON NGT INTO TUE MORNG. GENERALLY NNE WINDS 15 KT OR LESS
EXPECTED FOR TUE THRU THU.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...TMG






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270146
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
946 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION SUNDAY...THEN CROSSES
THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
FINALLY HAVE SEEN CONVECTION OVER ERN/SE VA DIMINISH WITH JUST A
SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER CURRITUCK NC (WHICH WILL
DISSIPATE/BE OUT THE AREA SHORTLY). NW FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE LARGELY
RESPONSIBLE FOR EARLIER ACTIVITY...WILL SLOWLY BECOME MORE FROM
THE WNW OVERNIGHT. NEXT POTENTIAL AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS UPSTREAM
IS WEAKENING ALONG THE APPALACHIANS ALTHOUGH MAY SEE ENOUGH ENERGY
IN THE WARM /HUMID AIRMASS OVERNIGHT TO ADD A 20% POP TO N/NW
COUNTIES. BEHIND THAT...MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE IS PUSHING ESE FROM
THE MID MS VALLEY WITH MCS ONGOING OVER IN/KY BUT THIS SHOULD NOT
REACH THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL AFTER 6 AM. ADJUSTED MIN TEMPS ONLY
SLIGHTLY WITH MOST AREAS HAVING MINS 70-75 F. SKIES AVG MOSTLY
CLEAR OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS...INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CHALLENGING FORECAST SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES
WRT TIMING OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES PROGGED TO MOVE SE AHEAD OF
STRONG COLD FRONT. NAM SUGGESTS TWO ROUNDS OF CONVECTION (LATE MORN
ERLY AFTN WITH A SECOND ONE IN THE EVENING WHILE GFS/SREF SHOW
SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING ON LEE TROF BY ERLY AFTN THEN DRIFTING
IT SE BUT EXPANDING IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTH BY EVENING AS
SECONDARY S/W AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE NW. SPC CONTINUES TO HAVE
ENTIRE FA OUTLOOKED IN SLIGHT RISK WITH A MDT RISK TO THE W OVER W VA.

PARAMETERS FAVOR A LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT BUT A TORNADO
THREAT ALSO EXISTS IF LEADING SUPERCELLS CAN DEVELOP. STAY TUNED.

EXPECT SEVERAL HRS OF HEATING DRNG THE MORNING FOR TMPS TO QUICKLY
RISE THRU THE 80S AND TO BTWN 85-90 BY NOON. TMPS BEORE ANY PCPN
DVLPS SHUD TOP OUT IN THE M-U80S ALONG THE ERN SHORE WITH U80S-L90S
W OF THE BAY WITH SOME M90S ACROSS SRN MOST COUNTIES WHERE MORE
HEATING EXPECTED. CAPPED POPS AT 50% ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES
THROUGH 21Z DROPPING OFF TO SLGHT CHC ACROSS THE SOUTH AFTR 18Z.
THIS SCENARIO FAVORS A GFS/SREF SOLN.

MODELS DEPICT SCNDRY SURGE OF MOISTURE (CONVECTIVE COMPLEX) TRACKING
ACROSS NRN HALF OF FA LATE SUN AFTRN/EVE SO BUMPED POPS INTO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY. CHC POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH. CHC POPS ALL AREAS AFTR
MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 60S.

MONDAY IS LOOKING LESS THREATING (SEVERE WISE) AS MODELS FASTER
WITH THE FRONT MOVG OFF THE COAST. DUE TO LINGERING MOISTURE AND
TROFINESS...WILL KEEP SLGHT CHC POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FA THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS WITH CHC POPS ALONG THE COAST...THEN END PCPN
ACROSS WRN HALF OF FA BUT KEEP CHC POPS GOING ALONG THE SERN
COASTAL AREAS THRU THE AFTRN HOURS. SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE PSBL IN
THE AFTRN ACROSS THE WEST WITH A BKN MID/HIGH LVL CLOUD DECK ARND.
TMPS TRICKY GIVEN WEAK NW FLOW. TRENDED TMPS DOWN TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS WITH THIS PACKAGE...85-90.

BNDRY PROGGED TO STALL IVOF GULF STREAM MON NIGHT AND TUE WHILE A
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH. KEPT SLGHT CHC
POPS ALONG SERN CSTL AREAS MON NITE. LOWS IN THE 60S...XCPT L70S
SERN CSTL AREAS.

DRY TUESDAY ALONG WITH LOWER HUMIDITY AS DP TMPS DROP INTO THE 50S.
PT TO MSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE L80S...U70S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF DIGS OVR THE MID ATLC REGION TUE NGT
INTO EARLY THU...BEFORE RETROGRADING BACK INTO THE OH AND MS VALLEYS
THU AFTN THRU SAT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OFF THE MID ATLC
CST TUE NGT THRU FRI...THEN DRIFTS BACK TWD THE CST FRI NGT THRU
SAT. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR TUE NGT THRU FRI...THEN HAVE ADDED
SLGT CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT AND SAT. A MORE COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL
DOMINATE THE AREA TUE NGT THRU THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
HUMIDITY RETURNS FOR FRI AND SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LWR TO MID 80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S
TO MID 60S WED AND THU MORNGS...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI
MORNG...AND RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK SFC HI PRES OFF THE CST...WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING ALONG THIS TROUGH...AIDED BY
PASSING MID-LEVEL ENERGY. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE 18Z TAF PERIOD...ASIDE FROM A PASSING SHOWER LIMITING
VISIBILITIES AT KSBY THROUGH 20Z.

S-SW WINDS GUSTING TO 15 KT AND SCT-BKN CLOUDS EXPECTED SUN AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W. POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY CONVECTION DURING THE AFTN THROUGH THE
EVENING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TNGT THRU MON. HI PRES WILL SLIDE
OUT TO SEA TNGT...AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE OH VALLEY. THAT
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MID ATLC REGION DURING SUN...THEN MOVE
ACRS THE AREA AND OFF THE CST LATE SUN NGT INTO MON NGT. EXPECT S
WINDS 15 KT OR LESS TNGT...WITH GUSTS TO ABOUT 20 KT ON THE OCEAN.
IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SSW WINDS 10 TO 20 KT
SUN AND SUN NGT. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE W DURING MON...THEN NW
AND N MON NGT INTO TUE MORNG. GENERALLY NNE WINDS 15 KT OR LESS
EXPECTED FOR TUE THRU THU.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...TMG







000
FXUS61 KLWX 270114
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
914 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. A REINFORCING
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WE WILL BE WATCHING MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NEXT 24 OR SO HOURS.

CLOSEST UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TO AFFECT THE CWA WAS MOVING INTO THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AT 01Z. CONVECTION WAS STRONGER WHEN IT WAS OVER
OH/WV AND HAS WEAKENED SOME OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. MODELS
INCLUDING HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO HANDLE
NEAR TERM CONVECTION VERY WELL THIS EVENING. MOST RECENT RUNS OF
THE HRRR HAVE LATCHED ONTO UPSTREAM CONVECTION BUT HRRR HAS
CONSISTENTLY BEEN DISSIPATING CONVECTION WHICH HASN/T HAPPENED
YET. ENVIRONMENT IS NOT SUPPORTIVE FOR SEVERE WX AS IT WAS IN OH
/AND THE SUN HAS NOW SET/...YET SHORTWAVE AND WARM ADVECTION WILL
LIKELY BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN SOME CONVECTION FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE
MORE HOURS INTO AT LEAST WESTERN MARYLAND...THE EASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA PANHANDLE AND INTO THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY OF VIRGINIA.
WHILE SEVERE WX IS NOT EXPECTED...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR. WHETHER OR NOT CONVECTION LASTS
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IS UNCERTAIN. CURRENT FORECAST LOWERS POPS
AT THIS POINT AND WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS IN
CASE LATE EVENING POPS NEED TO BE INCREASED FURTHER DOWNSTREAM.

IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE/EVENING
CONVECTION...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MAY PROMOTE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING CONVECTION AND POPS RAMP UP
/OR RE-RAMP UP/ FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THIS TIME. GIVEN TIME OF
DAY...SEVERE WX IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS ROUND EITHER HOWEVER
LOCALLY STRONG STORMS CAN/T BE RULED OUT.

A THIRD AND POSSIBLY STRONGEST SHORTWAVE /ALONG WITH MULTIPLE LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARIES/ THEN LOOKS TO PRODUCE MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUDS FROM POTENTIAL
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION MAY HINDER INSTABILITY SLIGHTLY...BUT
EXPECTATION IS FOR ENOUGH OF A WINDOW FOR BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO
OCCUR TO CONTRIBUTE TO 1-2K J/KG CAPE COINCIDENT WITH 0-6KM SHEAR
LIKELY IN EXCESS OF 40 KT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A WIDESPREAD
AND/OR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE EVENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
ALL SEVERE HAZARD TYPES POSSIBLE INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL...FLASH FLOODING AND ALSO ISOLATED TORANDOES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE MID-ATLANTIC. SHOWERS SHOULD BE OUT OF
THE REGION BY SUNRISE ON MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OVER THE PA MONDAY AND COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A CU FIELD ACROSS THE AREA.
SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS DUE TO AN INVERTED V
SIGNATURE WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE AREA FROM
CANADA...RESULTING TO MUCH DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. SUBSIDENCE WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND DRY AIR
IN THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY CONVECTION DURING THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH OFFSHORE LATER IN THE
WEEK AS ANOTHER SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE TAFS REVOLVES AROUND POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. FIRST SHORTWAVE LIKELY BRINGS SHRA OR TSRA TO
MRB AND PERHAPS EVEN CHO IN THE 02Z-04Z WINDOW TONIGHT.
EXPECTATION IS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO WEAKEN/DISSIPATE LATER THIS
EVENING AND NOT LAST MUCH FURTHER EAST. BUT HIGH RES GUIDANCE HAS
NOT HANDLED TRENDS WELL AND THIS PROVIDES UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
EASTWARD EXTENT.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHRA OR TSRA LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AND THEN A THIRD IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE
TSRA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIRD ROUND MAY BE THE
STRONGEST WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. WESTERLY WINDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FROPA
MONDAY. VFR MON NIGHT-WED W/ NW FLOW 10-20 KTS...GUSTY MON NIGHT
INTO TUE THEN DECREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS OCCURRING UP THE BAY AND IS EXPECTED TO CHANNEL
FOR LOW END SCA WINDS TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY
SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MAY CONTAIN LOW VIS
IN HEAVY RAIN AND ALSO STRONG WINDS /AND EVEN ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS/
WHICH WOULD REQUIRE SMW/S.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS MONDAY MORNING AND SCA WILL BE
LIKELY. SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN GUSTY NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
PRESSURE SURGE BEHIND COLD FROPA MON EVE...SUBSIDING TUE THROUGH
THU.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SOUTHERLY WIND CONTINUES TO SUPPORT POSITIVE TIDAL DEPARTURES. MAIN
CONCERN FOR THE NEXT HIGH TIDE CYCLE WILL BE AROUND ANNAPOLIS...WITH
A HIGH TIDE TIME OF 623 AM AT THE US NAVAL ACADEMY. ANOMALY THERE IS
AROUND 3/4 FT ABOVE. IF IT HOLDS THIS WOULD BRING WATER LEVELS ABOVE
THE MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLD. IT COULD EVEN GO UP A TAD WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW. THEREFORE WILL ISSUE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR ANNE ARUNDEL
FOR A 2.4-2.5 FT MLLW EXPECTED WATER LEVEL AT HIGH TIDE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ531>534-537-
     539>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP/HAS
NEAR TERM...BPP/HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...BPP/HAS/DFH
MARINE...BPP/HAS/DFH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BPP







000
FXUS61 KLWX 270114
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
914 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. A REINFORCING
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WE WILL BE WATCHING MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NEXT 24 OR SO HOURS.

CLOSEST UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TO AFFECT THE CWA WAS MOVING INTO THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AT 01Z. CONVECTION WAS STRONGER WHEN IT WAS OVER
OH/WV AND HAS WEAKENED SOME OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. MODELS
INCLUDING HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO HANDLE
NEAR TERM CONVECTION VERY WELL THIS EVENING. MOST RECENT RUNS OF
THE HRRR HAVE LATCHED ONTO UPSTREAM CONVECTION BUT HRRR HAS
CONSISTENTLY BEEN DISSIPATING CONVECTION WHICH HASN/T HAPPENED
YET. ENVIRONMENT IS NOT SUPPORTIVE FOR SEVERE WX AS IT WAS IN OH
/AND THE SUN HAS NOW SET/...YET SHORTWAVE AND WARM ADVECTION WILL
LIKELY BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN SOME CONVECTION FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE
MORE HOURS INTO AT LEAST WESTERN MARYLAND...THE EASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA PANHANDLE AND INTO THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY OF VIRGINIA.
WHILE SEVERE WX IS NOT EXPECTED...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR. WHETHER OR NOT CONVECTION LASTS
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IS UNCERTAIN. CURRENT FORECAST LOWERS POPS
AT THIS POINT AND WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS IN
CASE LATE EVENING POPS NEED TO BE INCREASED FURTHER DOWNSTREAM.

IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE/EVENING
CONVECTION...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MAY PROMOTE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING CONVECTION AND POPS RAMP UP
/OR RE-RAMP UP/ FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THIS TIME. GIVEN TIME OF
DAY...SEVERE WX IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS ROUND EITHER HOWEVER
LOCALLY STRONG STORMS CAN/T BE RULED OUT.

A THIRD AND POSSIBLY STRONGEST SHORTWAVE /ALONG WITH MULTIPLE LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARIES/ THEN LOOKS TO PRODUCE MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUDS FROM POTENTIAL
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION MAY HINDER INSTABILITY SLIGHTLY...BUT
EXPECTATION IS FOR ENOUGH OF A WINDOW FOR BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO
OCCUR TO CONTRIBUTE TO 1-2K J/KG CAPE COINCIDENT WITH 0-6KM SHEAR
LIKELY IN EXCESS OF 40 KT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A WIDESPREAD
AND/OR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE EVENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
ALL SEVERE HAZARD TYPES POSSIBLE INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL...FLASH FLOODING AND ALSO ISOLATED TORANDOES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE MID-ATLANTIC. SHOWERS SHOULD BE OUT OF
THE REGION BY SUNRISE ON MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OVER THE PA MONDAY AND COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A CU FIELD ACROSS THE AREA.
SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS DUE TO AN INVERTED V
SIGNATURE WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE AREA FROM
CANADA...RESULTING TO MUCH DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. SUBSIDENCE WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND DRY AIR
IN THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY CONVECTION DURING THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH OFFSHORE LATER IN THE
WEEK AS ANOTHER SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE TAFS REVOLVES AROUND POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. FIRST SHORTWAVE LIKELY BRINGS SHRA OR TSRA TO
MRB AND PERHAPS EVEN CHO IN THE 02Z-04Z WINDOW TONIGHT.
EXPECTATION IS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO WEAKEN/DISSIPATE LATER THIS
EVENING AND NOT LAST MUCH FURTHER EAST. BUT HIGH RES GUIDANCE HAS
NOT HANDLED TRENDS WELL AND THIS PROVIDES UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
EASTWARD EXTENT.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHRA OR TSRA LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AND THEN A THIRD IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE
TSRA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIRD ROUND MAY BE THE
STRONGEST WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. WESTERLY WINDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FROPA
MONDAY. VFR MON NIGHT-WED W/ NW FLOW 10-20 KTS...GUSTY MON NIGHT
INTO TUE THEN DECREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS OCCURRING UP THE BAY AND IS EXPECTED TO CHANNEL
FOR LOW END SCA WINDS TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY
SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MAY CONTAIN LOW VIS
IN HEAVY RAIN AND ALSO STRONG WINDS /AND EVEN ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS/
WHICH WOULD REQUIRE SMW/S.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS MONDAY MORNING AND SCA WILL BE
LIKELY. SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN GUSTY NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
PRESSURE SURGE BEHIND COLD FROPA MON EVE...SUBSIDING TUE THROUGH
THU.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SOUTHERLY WIND CONTINUES TO SUPPORT POSITIVE TIDAL DEPARTURES. MAIN
CONCERN FOR THE NEXT HIGH TIDE CYCLE WILL BE AROUND ANNAPOLIS...WITH
A HIGH TIDE TIME OF 623 AM AT THE US NAVAL ACADEMY. ANOMALY THERE IS
AROUND 3/4 FT ABOVE. IF IT HOLDS THIS WOULD BRING WATER LEVELS ABOVE
THE MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLD. IT COULD EVEN GO UP A TAD WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW. THEREFORE WILL ISSUE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR ANNE ARUNDEL
FOR A 2.4-2.5 FT MLLW EXPECTED WATER LEVEL AT HIGH TIDE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ531>534-537-
     539>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP/HAS
NEAR TERM...BPP/HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...BPP/HAS/DFH
MARINE...BPP/HAS/DFH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BPP








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