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000
FXUS61 KRNK 190400
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1100 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN OVERALL DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP ALONG
THE GULF COAST STATES FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST OVER
THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION SATURDAY MORNING...CHANGING TO RAIN
OVER THE PIEDMONT IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1035 PM EST THURSDAY...

UPDATED FORECAST TO LOWER THREAT OF PRECIP IN THE NW. STILL COULD
SEE SOME FLURRIES ACROSS THE MTNS OF WRN GREENBRIER TOWARD DAWN.
OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT SKIES TURNING LESS CLOUDY OUT EAST AS ONE
SHORTWAVE EXITS EAST.

ADJUSTED TEMPS ESPECIALLY IN THE FOOTHILLS AND ROANOKE AS THEY ARE
RUNNING MILDER...BUT AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS FADE TEMPS WILL
STILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S. STILL LOOKING AT MID TO UPPER 20S
WEST.


PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

WAVE ALOFT PASSES EAST OVERNIGHT LEAVING WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE
AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW NOSES BACK IN LATE.


FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE ON THE DRY SIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REMAINS THE
MAIN FEATURE IN OUR WEATHER PATTERN. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES...TO AROUND 50
OVER THE SOUTHSIDE AND THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EST THURSDAY...

MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING QUITE A BIT WEAKER WITH THE SHORT WAVE
COMING OUT OF ARIZONA AND REACHING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON
SATURDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND VORTICITY ADVECTION COME THROUGH ON
SATURDAY AND WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE GUIDANCE IS WITH THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE. 12Z GUIDANCE NOW KEEPS BULK OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY THE 12Z NAM. WILL FOLLOW THIS
TREND AND LOWER PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN ALL BUT THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. WILL ALSO CUT BACK ON
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE EAST AND WILL BE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY.
THE HIGH CONTINUES SLOW PROGRESS TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND BY
LATE SUNDAY THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OFFSHORE. THIS WILL BEGIN TO
BRING SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS AROUND TO THE SOUTH LATE IN THE
DAY. SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE SHORT WAVE ON SATURDAY WILL BE AN
INVERTED TROF OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. EXPECT CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY COOLER
THAN GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST THURSDAY...

A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE
WITH ENOUGH MODEL DIFFERENCES TO MAKE THE DETAILS OF THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER A GOOD CHALLENGE. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST SUNDAY NIGHT...PUSH MOISTURE
NORTHWARD AND INTRODUCING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN...AND POTENTIALLY
FREEZING PRECIPITATION TO THE MOUNTAINS. UTILIZED THE TOPDOWN
APPROACH LEANING TOWARDS GFS FOR TEMPERATURE PROFILES. HELD LOW
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW MOS WITH CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION. IN GENERAL...SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE PIEDMONT.

FOR MONDAY...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WITH AXIS OF
MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION MOVING NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE
WEST. HOW MUCH THE LOW CENTER DEEPENS...ITS ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION AND PTYPE REMAINS PROBLEMATIC FOR OUR REGION. EACH
MODEL HAS A DIFFERENT TAKE ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WARM NOSE OVER
OUR REGION. WILL MAINTAIN THE RAIN VERSUS FREEZING RAIN FORECAST
DURING MUCH OF MONDAY MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET ACROSS THE VIRGINIA
HIGHLANDS AND SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY. FELT THAT THERE WAS
ENOUGH SUPPORT TO RAISE POPS FROM SLIGHT INTO THE CHANCE LEVEL
MONDAY. KEPT HIGHS MONDAY COOLER THAN GUIDANCE WITH READINGS FROM
THE MID 30S IN THE WEST TO THE MID 40S IN THE EAST.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST WITH
TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A
DEEP LONGITUDINAL TROUGH DEVELOPS SOUTH TO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
OUR REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION. USING
SUPERBLEND FOR LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT PRODUCED READINGS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
MILDER FOR HIGHS TUESDAY FROM THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BOTH GFS AND ECWMF DEEPEN THE
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH AND NEGATIVELY TILT THE FEATURE SO
THAT THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST...COINCIDENT TO THE POSITION OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
OCCLUDED FRONT...WITH THE TRIPLE POINT PASSING SOMEWHERE NEAR OR
JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION. AT THIS TIME...SPC DOES NOT HAVE ANY
THUNDERSTORMS IN ITS DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. IT LOOKS
LIKE...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR OUR REGION TO HAVE ACTIVE
WEATHER LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH PLENTY OF
SHOWERS...PERHAPS VERY GUSTY WINDS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

COLD AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...ALLOWING FOR SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. IF ENOUGH COLD
AIR ARRIVES QUICKLY...THERE COULD BE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE WEST AS THE LOW CENTER MARCHES NORTHEAST PUSHES A COLD
FRONT TO THE COAST. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT A COOLING TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. UPPER FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST AS TROF CURVES OUT
IN THE CENTRAL US WITH SFC INFLECTION OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1045 PM EST THURSDAY...

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE AVIATION FORECAST...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
LESS THAT BLF WILL DROP BELOW 1KFT PER UPSTREAM OBS. STILL WILL
HAVE A TEMPO GROUP TOWARD 12Z FOR BLF DROPPING TO 9H FEET FOR A
COUPLE HOURS.

OTHERWISE BECOMING MVFR AT BLF/LWB OVERNIGHT THEN BACK TO VFR BY
MIDDAY FRIDAY...WHILE REST OF THE TAF SITES STAY VFR. COULD SEE
SOME SCT SUB 3KFT CLOUDS ACROSS BCB BUT CONFIDENCE HIGH THAT
THREAT OF BKN IS NOT GOING TO HAPPEN.

CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY SO EXPECT MAINLY CIRROSTRATUS IN THE LATE EVENING ACROSS
THE REGION.



EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THE SAT SYSTEM NOW HAS TRENDED WEAKER AND WILL SHIFT MOST OF THE
PRECIP ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...THOUGH STILL WILL SEE SOME WINTRY
MIX BUMP UP INTO THE SE WV/SW VA CORRIDOR INTO THE NC
MTNS...THOUGH TRENDS ARE SHOWING LESS. EXPECT SUB VFR THOUGH AT
TIMES SATURDAY INTO SAT NIGHT.

ON THE HEELS OF THIS  SYSTEM WILL BE ANOTHER SYSTEM TO
POTENTIALLY IMPACT MAINLY THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH YET ANOTHER SYSTEM SLATED FOR LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THESE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING A
PERIOD MAINLY RAIN BUT COULD BE SOME WINTRY WX AS WELL ESPECIALLY
IN THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT POTENTIAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AS WELL
AND POOR FLYING WEATHER MONDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...RCS/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...JH/RCS/WP



000
FXUS61 KRNK 190400
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1100 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN OVERALL DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP ALONG
THE GULF COAST STATES FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST OVER
THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION SATURDAY MORNING...CHANGING TO RAIN
OVER THE PIEDMONT IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1035 PM EST THURSDAY...

UPDATED FORECAST TO LOWER THREAT OF PRECIP IN THE NW. STILL COULD
SEE SOME FLURRIES ACROSS THE MTNS OF WRN GREENBRIER TOWARD DAWN.
OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT SKIES TURNING LESS CLOUDY OUT EAST AS ONE
SHORTWAVE EXITS EAST.

ADJUSTED TEMPS ESPECIALLY IN THE FOOTHILLS AND ROANOKE AS THEY ARE
RUNNING MILDER...BUT AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS FADE TEMPS WILL
STILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S. STILL LOOKING AT MID TO UPPER 20S
WEST.


PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

WAVE ALOFT PASSES EAST OVERNIGHT LEAVING WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE
AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW NOSES BACK IN LATE.


FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE ON THE DRY SIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REMAINS THE
MAIN FEATURE IN OUR WEATHER PATTERN. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES...TO AROUND 50
OVER THE SOUTHSIDE AND THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EST THURSDAY...

MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING QUITE A BIT WEAKER WITH THE SHORT WAVE
COMING OUT OF ARIZONA AND REACHING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON
SATURDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND VORTICITY ADVECTION COME THROUGH ON
SATURDAY AND WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE GUIDANCE IS WITH THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE. 12Z GUIDANCE NOW KEEPS BULK OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY THE 12Z NAM. WILL FOLLOW THIS
TREND AND LOWER PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN ALL BUT THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. WILL ALSO CUT BACK ON
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE EAST AND WILL BE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY.
THE HIGH CONTINUES SLOW PROGRESS TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND BY
LATE SUNDAY THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OFFSHORE. THIS WILL BEGIN TO
BRING SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS AROUND TO THE SOUTH LATE IN THE
DAY. SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE SHORT WAVE ON SATURDAY WILL BE AN
INVERTED TROF OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. EXPECT CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY COOLER
THAN GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST THURSDAY...

A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE
WITH ENOUGH MODEL DIFFERENCES TO MAKE THE DETAILS OF THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER A GOOD CHALLENGE. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST SUNDAY NIGHT...PUSH MOISTURE
NORTHWARD AND INTRODUCING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN...AND POTENTIALLY
FREEZING PRECIPITATION TO THE MOUNTAINS. UTILIZED THE TOPDOWN
APPROACH LEANING TOWARDS GFS FOR TEMPERATURE PROFILES. HELD LOW
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW MOS WITH CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION. IN GENERAL...SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE PIEDMONT.

FOR MONDAY...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WITH AXIS OF
MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION MOVING NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE
WEST. HOW MUCH THE LOW CENTER DEEPENS...ITS ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION AND PTYPE REMAINS PROBLEMATIC FOR OUR REGION. EACH
MODEL HAS A DIFFERENT TAKE ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WARM NOSE OVER
OUR REGION. WILL MAINTAIN THE RAIN VERSUS FREEZING RAIN FORECAST
DURING MUCH OF MONDAY MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET ACROSS THE VIRGINIA
HIGHLANDS AND SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY. FELT THAT THERE WAS
ENOUGH SUPPORT TO RAISE POPS FROM SLIGHT INTO THE CHANCE LEVEL
MONDAY. KEPT HIGHS MONDAY COOLER THAN GUIDANCE WITH READINGS FROM
THE MID 30S IN THE WEST TO THE MID 40S IN THE EAST.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST WITH
TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A
DEEP LONGITUDINAL TROUGH DEVELOPS SOUTH TO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
OUR REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION. USING
SUPERBLEND FOR LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT PRODUCED READINGS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
MILDER FOR HIGHS TUESDAY FROM THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BOTH GFS AND ECWMF DEEPEN THE
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH AND NEGATIVELY TILT THE FEATURE SO
THAT THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST...COINCIDENT TO THE POSITION OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
OCCLUDED FRONT...WITH THE TRIPLE POINT PASSING SOMEWHERE NEAR OR
JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION. AT THIS TIME...SPC DOES NOT HAVE ANY
THUNDERSTORMS IN ITS DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. IT LOOKS
LIKE...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR OUR REGION TO HAVE ACTIVE
WEATHER LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH PLENTY OF
SHOWERS...PERHAPS VERY GUSTY WINDS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

COLD AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...ALLOWING FOR SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. IF ENOUGH COLD
AIR ARRIVES QUICKLY...THERE COULD BE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE WEST AS THE LOW CENTER MARCHES NORTHEAST PUSHES A COLD
FRONT TO THE COAST. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT A COOLING TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. UPPER FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST AS TROF CURVES OUT
IN THE CENTRAL US WITH SFC INFLECTION OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1045 PM EST THURSDAY...

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE AVIATION FORECAST...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
LESS THAT BLF WILL DROP BELOW 1KFT PER UPSTREAM OBS. STILL WILL
HAVE A TEMPO GROUP TOWARD 12Z FOR BLF DROPPING TO 9H FEET FOR A
COUPLE HOURS.

OTHERWISE BECOMING MVFR AT BLF/LWB OVERNIGHT THEN BACK TO VFR BY
MIDDAY FRIDAY...WHILE REST OF THE TAF SITES STAY VFR. COULD SEE
SOME SCT SUB 3KFT CLOUDS ACROSS BCB BUT CONFIDENCE HIGH THAT
THREAT OF BKN IS NOT GOING TO HAPPEN.

CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY SO EXPECT MAINLY CIRROSTRATUS IN THE LATE EVENING ACROSS
THE REGION.



EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THE SAT SYSTEM NOW HAS TRENDED WEAKER AND WILL SHIFT MOST OF THE
PRECIP ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...THOUGH STILL WILL SEE SOME WINTRY
MIX BUMP UP INTO THE SE WV/SW VA CORRIDOR INTO THE NC
MTNS...THOUGH TRENDS ARE SHOWING LESS. EXPECT SUB VFR THOUGH AT
TIMES SATURDAY INTO SAT NIGHT.

ON THE HEELS OF THIS  SYSTEM WILL BE ANOTHER SYSTEM TO
POTENTIALLY IMPACT MAINLY THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH YET ANOTHER SYSTEM SLATED FOR LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THESE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING A
PERIOD MAINLY RAIN BUT COULD BE SOME WINTRY WX AS WELL ESPECIALLY
IN THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT POTENTIAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AS WELL
AND POOR FLYING WEATHER MONDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...RCS/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...JH/RCS/WP



000
FXUS61 KRNK 190400
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1100 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN OVERALL DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP ALONG
THE GULF COAST STATES FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST OVER
THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION SATURDAY MORNING...CHANGING TO RAIN
OVER THE PIEDMONT IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1035 PM EST THURSDAY...

UPDATED FORECAST TO LOWER THREAT OF PRECIP IN THE NW. STILL COULD
SEE SOME FLURRIES ACROSS THE MTNS OF WRN GREENBRIER TOWARD DAWN.
OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT SKIES TURNING LESS CLOUDY OUT EAST AS ONE
SHORTWAVE EXITS EAST.

ADJUSTED TEMPS ESPECIALLY IN THE FOOTHILLS AND ROANOKE AS THEY ARE
RUNNING MILDER...BUT AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS FADE TEMPS WILL
STILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S. STILL LOOKING AT MID TO UPPER 20S
WEST.


PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

WAVE ALOFT PASSES EAST OVERNIGHT LEAVING WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE
AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW NOSES BACK IN LATE.


FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE ON THE DRY SIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REMAINS THE
MAIN FEATURE IN OUR WEATHER PATTERN. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES...TO AROUND 50
OVER THE SOUTHSIDE AND THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EST THURSDAY...

MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING QUITE A BIT WEAKER WITH THE SHORT WAVE
COMING OUT OF ARIZONA AND REACHING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON
SATURDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND VORTICITY ADVECTION COME THROUGH ON
SATURDAY AND WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE GUIDANCE IS WITH THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE. 12Z GUIDANCE NOW KEEPS BULK OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY THE 12Z NAM. WILL FOLLOW THIS
TREND AND LOWER PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN ALL BUT THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. WILL ALSO CUT BACK ON
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE EAST AND WILL BE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY.
THE HIGH CONTINUES SLOW PROGRESS TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND BY
LATE SUNDAY THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OFFSHORE. THIS WILL BEGIN TO
BRING SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS AROUND TO THE SOUTH LATE IN THE
DAY. SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE SHORT WAVE ON SATURDAY WILL BE AN
INVERTED TROF OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. EXPECT CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY COOLER
THAN GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST THURSDAY...

A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE
WITH ENOUGH MODEL DIFFERENCES TO MAKE THE DETAILS OF THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER A GOOD CHALLENGE. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST SUNDAY NIGHT...PUSH MOISTURE
NORTHWARD AND INTRODUCING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN...AND POTENTIALLY
FREEZING PRECIPITATION TO THE MOUNTAINS. UTILIZED THE TOPDOWN
APPROACH LEANING TOWARDS GFS FOR TEMPERATURE PROFILES. HELD LOW
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW MOS WITH CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION. IN GENERAL...SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE PIEDMONT.

FOR MONDAY...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WITH AXIS OF
MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION MOVING NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE
WEST. HOW MUCH THE LOW CENTER DEEPENS...ITS ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION AND PTYPE REMAINS PROBLEMATIC FOR OUR REGION. EACH
MODEL HAS A DIFFERENT TAKE ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WARM NOSE OVER
OUR REGION. WILL MAINTAIN THE RAIN VERSUS FREEZING RAIN FORECAST
DURING MUCH OF MONDAY MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET ACROSS THE VIRGINIA
HIGHLANDS AND SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY. FELT THAT THERE WAS
ENOUGH SUPPORT TO RAISE POPS FROM SLIGHT INTO THE CHANCE LEVEL
MONDAY. KEPT HIGHS MONDAY COOLER THAN GUIDANCE WITH READINGS FROM
THE MID 30S IN THE WEST TO THE MID 40S IN THE EAST.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST WITH
TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A
DEEP LONGITUDINAL TROUGH DEVELOPS SOUTH TO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
OUR REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION. USING
SUPERBLEND FOR LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT PRODUCED READINGS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
MILDER FOR HIGHS TUESDAY FROM THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BOTH GFS AND ECWMF DEEPEN THE
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH AND NEGATIVELY TILT THE FEATURE SO
THAT THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST...COINCIDENT TO THE POSITION OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
OCCLUDED FRONT...WITH THE TRIPLE POINT PASSING SOMEWHERE NEAR OR
JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION. AT THIS TIME...SPC DOES NOT HAVE ANY
THUNDERSTORMS IN ITS DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. IT LOOKS
LIKE...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR OUR REGION TO HAVE ACTIVE
WEATHER LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH PLENTY OF
SHOWERS...PERHAPS VERY GUSTY WINDS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

COLD AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...ALLOWING FOR SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. IF ENOUGH COLD
AIR ARRIVES QUICKLY...THERE COULD BE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE WEST AS THE LOW CENTER MARCHES NORTHEAST PUSHES A COLD
FRONT TO THE COAST. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT A COOLING TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. UPPER FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST AS TROF CURVES OUT
IN THE CENTRAL US WITH SFC INFLECTION OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1045 PM EST THURSDAY...

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE AVIATION FORECAST...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
LESS THAT BLF WILL DROP BELOW 1KFT PER UPSTREAM OBS. STILL WILL
HAVE A TEMPO GROUP TOWARD 12Z FOR BLF DROPPING TO 9H FEET FOR A
COUPLE HOURS.

OTHERWISE BECOMING MVFR AT BLF/LWB OVERNIGHT THEN BACK TO VFR BY
MIDDAY FRIDAY...WHILE REST OF THE TAF SITES STAY VFR. COULD SEE
SOME SCT SUB 3KFT CLOUDS ACROSS BCB BUT CONFIDENCE HIGH THAT
THREAT OF BKN IS NOT GOING TO HAPPEN.

CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY SO EXPECT MAINLY CIRROSTRATUS IN THE LATE EVENING ACROSS
THE REGION.



EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THE SAT SYSTEM NOW HAS TRENDED WEAKER AND WILL SHIFT MOST OF THE
PRECIP ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...THOUGH STILL WILL SEE SOME WINTRY
MIX BUMP UP INTO THE SE WV/SW VA CORRIDOR INTO THE NC
MTNS...THOUGH TRENDS ARE SHOWING LESS. EXPECT SUB VFR THOUGH AT
TIMES SATURDAY INTO SAT NIGHT.

ON THE HEELS OF THIS  SYSTEM WILL BE ANOTHER SYSTEM TO
POTENTIALLY IMPACT MAINLY THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH YET ANOTHER SYSTEM SLATED FOR LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THESE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING A
PERIOD MAINLY RAIN BUT COULD BE SOME WINTRY WX AS WELL ESPECIALLY
IN THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT POTENTIAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AS WELL
AND POOR FLYING WEATHER MONDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...RCS/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...JH/RCS/WP



000
FXUS61 KRNK 190400
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1100 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN OVERALL DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP ALONG
THE GULF COAST STATES FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST OVER
THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION SATURDAY MORNING...CHANGING TO RAIN
OVER THE PIEDMONT IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1035 PM EST THURSDAY...

UPDATED FORECAST TO LOWER THREAT OF PRECIP IN THE NW. STILL COULD
SEE SOME FLURRIES ACROSS THE MTNS OF WRN GREENBRIER TOWARD DAWN.
OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT SKIES TURNING LESS CLOUDY OUT EAST AS ONE
SHORTWAVE EXITS EAST.

ADJUSTED TEMPS ESPECIALLY IN THE FOOTHILLS AND ROANOKE AS THEY ARE
RUNNING MILDER...BUT AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS FADE TEMPS WILL
STILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S. STILL LOOKING AT MID TO UPPER 20S
WEST.


PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

WAVE ALOFT PASSES EAST OVERNIGHT LEAVING WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE
AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW NOSES BACK IN LATE.


FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE ON THE DRY SIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REMAINS THE
MAIN FEATURE IN OUR WEATHER PATTERN. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES...TO AROUND 50
OVER THE SOUTHSIDE AND THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EST THURSDAY...

MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING QUITE A BIT WEAKER WITH THE SHORT WAVE
COMING OUT OF ARIZONA AND REACHING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON
SATURDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND VORTICITY ADVECTION COME THROUGH ON
SATURDAY AND WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE GUIDANCE IS WITH THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE. 12Z GUIDANCE NOW KEEPS BULK OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY THE 12Z NAM. WILL FOLLOW THIS
TREND AND LOWER PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN ALL BUT THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. WILL ALSO CUT BACK ON
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE EAST AND WILL BE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY.
THE HIGH CONTINUES SLOW PROGRESS TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND BY
LATE SUNDAY THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OFFSHORE. THIS WILL BEGIN TO
BRING SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS AROUND TO THE SOUTH LATE IN THE
DAY. SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE SHORT WAVE ON SATURDAY WILL BE AN
INVERTED TROF OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. EXPECT CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY COOLER
THAN GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST THURSDAY...

A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE
WITH ENOUGH MODEL DIFFERENCES TO MAKE THE DETAILS OF THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER A GOOD CHALLENGE. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST SUNDAY NIGHT...PUSH MOISTURE
NORTHWARD AND INTRODUCING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN...AND POTENTIALLY
FREEZING PRECIPITATION TO THE MOUNTAINS. UTILIZED THE TOPDOWN
APPROACH LEANING TOWARDS GFS FOR TEMPERATURE PROFILES. HELD LOW
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW MOS WITH CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION. IN GENERAL...SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE PIEDMONT.

FOR MONDAY...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WITH AXIS OF
MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION MOVING NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE
WEST. HOW MUCH THE LOW CENTER DEEPENS...ITS ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION AND PTYPE REMAINS PROBLEMATIC FOR OUR REGION. EACH
MODEL HAS A DIFFERENT TAKE ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WARM NOSE OVER
OUR REGION. WILL MAINTAIN THE RAIN VERSUS FREEZING RAIN FORECAST
DURING MUCH OF MONDAY MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET ACROSS THE VIRGINIA
HIGHLANDS AND SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY. FELT THAT THERE WAS
ENOUGH SUPPORT TO RAISE POPS FROM SLIGHT INTO THE CHANCE LEVEL
MONDAY. KEPT HIGHS MONDAY COOLER THAN GUIDANCE WITH READINGS FROM
THE MID 30S IN THE WEST TO THE MID 40S IN THE EAST.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST WITH
TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A
DEEP LONGITUDINAL TROUGH DEVELOPS SOUTH TO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
OUR REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION. USING
SUPERBLEND FOR LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT PRODUCED READINGS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
MILDER FOR HIGHS TUESDAY FROM THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BOTH GFS AND ECWMF DEEPEN THE
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH AND NEGATIVELY TILT THE FEATURE SO
THAT THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST...COINCIDENT TO THE POSITION OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
OCCLUDED FRONT...WITH THE TRIPLE POINT PASSING SOMEWHERE NEAR OR
JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION. AT THIS TIME...SPC DOES NOT HAVE ANY
THUNDERSTORMS IN ITS DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. IT LOOKS
LIKE...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR OUR REGION TO HAVE ACTIVE
WEATHER LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH PLENTY OF
SHOWERS...PERHAPS VERY GUSTY WINDS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

COLD AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...ALLOWING FOR SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. IF ENOUGH COLD
AIR ARRIVES QUICKLY...THERE COULD BE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE WEST AS THE LOW CENTER MARCHES NORTHEAST PUSHES A COLD
FRONT TO THE COAST. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT A COOLING TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. UPPER FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST AS TROF CURVES OUT
IN THE CENTRAL US WITH SFC INFLECTION OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1045 PM EST THURSDAY...

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE AVIATION FORECAST...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
LESS THAT BLF WILL DROP BELOW 1KFT PER UPSTREAM OBS. STILL WILL
HAVE A TEMPO GROUP TOWARD 12Z FOR BLF DROPPING TO 9H FEET FOR A
COUPLE HOURS.

OTHERWISE BECOMING MVFR AT BLF/LWB OVERNIGHT THEN BACK TO VFR BY
MIDDAY FRIDAY...WHILE REST OF THE TAF SITES STAY VFR. COULD SEE
SOME SCT SUB 3KFT CLOUDS ACROSS BCB BUT CONFIDENCE HIGH THAT
THREAT OF BKN IS NOT GOING TO HAPPEN.

CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY SO EXPECT MAINLY CIRROSTRATUS IN THE LATE EVENING ACROSS
THE REGION.



EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THE SAT SYSTEM NOW HAS TRENDED WEAKER AND WILL SHIFT MOST OF THE
PRECIP ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...THOUGH STILL WILL SEE SOME WINTRY
MIX BUMP UP INTO THE SE WV/SW VA CORRIDOR INTO THE NC
MTNS...THOUGH TRENDS ARE SHOWING LESS. EXPECT SUB VFR THOUGH AT
TIMES SATURDAY INTO SAT NIGHT.

ON THE HEELS OF THIS  SYSTEM WILL BE ANOTHER SYSTEM TO
POTENTIALLY IMPACT MAINLY THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH YET ANOTHER SYSTEM SLATED FOR LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THESE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING A
PERIOD MAINLY RAIN BUT COULD BE SOME WINTRY WX AS WELL ESPECIALLY
IN THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT POTENTIAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AS WELL
AND POOR FLYING WEATHER MONDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...RCS/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...JH/RCS/WP


  [top]

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 190328
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1028 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO EASTWARD
AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA AGAIN DURING SUNDAY. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND UP ALONG THE COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS LIGHT ECHOES OVER THE NRN
LOCAL AREA AND NRN VA THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...LATEST KWAL SOUNDING
DEPICTS A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE FROM 12-16K FT AGL. THE DRY AIR
BELOW THAT LEVEL WILL PREVENT ANY PRECIP FROM REACHING THE GROUND.
THIS IN RESPONSE TO A SHEARING...LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE CROSSING THE
REGION. BASED ON BUFR SOUNDINGS AND LATEST IR SATELLITE
TRENDS...EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO STICK AROUND THRU LATE TONIGHT.
WAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...WITH SKIES
CLEARING THRU THE MORNING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
EXTEND INTO THE REGION...RESULTING IN CALM-LIGHT NLY WINDS. BUMPED
TEMPS DOWN A DEG OR TWO...EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER...IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS (GFS/NAM/ECMWF) CONTINUE TO TREND FARTHER S WITH PCPN AND
WEAK LO LATE FRI NGT INTO SAT NGT...DUE TO NRN STREAM UPR TROF
SWINGING EWRD FM THE UPR MIDWEST THRU THE GRT LKS. NAM IS THE
FARTHEST S AND THUS THE DRIEST MODEL. HI PRES STRETCHING FM
SCNTRL/SE CANADA SSE INTO THE MID ATLC WILL MAINTAIN DRY WX FRI
INTO FRI NGT. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ON FRI WITH HIGHS RANGING FM
THE MID 40S TO ARND 50. MOSTLY CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY FRI
NGT...WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS SPREADING IN FM THE SSW. COLD
AGAIN WITH LOWS RANGING FM THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S.

FOR SAT INTO SAT NGT...WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF WITH
LO PRES TRACKING FM THE GULF OF MEXICO EWRD AND OFF THE SE CST.
WILL GO WITH NO HIGHER THAN 30-40% POPS FOR EXTRM SRN VA AND NE NC
MAINLY SAT AFTN INTO EARLY SAT NGT. JUST HAVE SLGT CHC (20%) OR NO
PCPN (14%) ACRS NRN HALF OF CWA AT THIS TIME. ANY PCPN AT THE
ONSET OVR WRN/NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES COULD BE VERY LIGHT SLEET OR
SNOW. OTHERWISE...PCPN WILL BE JUST A COLD LIGHT RAIN...AND MAINLY
OVR EXTRM SRN VA AND NE NC. COULD BE A FEW FLURRIES MIXED IN AT
THE END EARLY SAT NGT. HI TEMPS ON SAT ONLY IN THE LWR TO MID 40S.
THE WEAK LO WILL BE WELL OFF THE SE CST LATE SAT NGT...WITH A MOSTLY
CLOUDY OR PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. LOWS SAT NGT RANGING FM THE UPR 20S
TO MID 30S. HI PRES WILL BE OVR THE AREA AGAIN DURING SUN. PARTLY
OR MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPR 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
TRACK NE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. TIMING
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE AMONGST 18/12Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...AND GIVEN
THIS POPS WILL REMAIN CAPPED IN THE CHC CATEGORY. POPS INCREASE TO
20-30% SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH 40-50% POPS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. PCPN TYPE SHOULD GENERALLY BE RAIN...ALTHOUGH THERE
COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET AT THE ONSET OVER THE NW PIEDMONT
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S NW...TO MID 50S SE...AFTER MORNING LOWS IN
THE LOW 30S NW...TO AROUND 40 SE. MID-LEVEL RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY (BRINGING MILDER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW 50S NW TO NEAR 60 SE)...BEFORE LOW PRESSURE AND A STRONG
COLD FRONT IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SPATIAL
AND TIMING DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE 18/12Z GFS TRACKING THE
SURFACE LOW W OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND THE 18/12Z ECMWF TRACKING THE
SURFACE LOW UP THE COASTAL PLAIN. THIS WILL HAVE IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES AND WHETHER THE RAIN IS MORE STRATIFORM OR SHOWERY. IF
THE FARTHER W 18/12Z GFS WERE TO VERIFY THERE COULD BE A POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDER. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THIS SOLUTION...SURFACE DEWPOINTS
AOA 60F REMAIN OFFSHORE. DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
PREVAIL BY CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THESE CLOUDS DISSIPATE BY
LATE MORNING. VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT GENERALLY FROM A NORTHERLY DIRECTION.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL FRIDAY NIGHT. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING WELL TO OUR SOUTH SAT/SAT NIGHT MAY BRING
A PERIOD OF BKN/OVC CONDITIONS BUT CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 4-5
K FT OR HIGHER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA
SUNDAY. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND COMPLEX FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES BEGINNING MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. A SECONDARY NNW SURGE ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. WIND SPEEDS OVER THE BAY COULD BRIEFLY REACH 20KT...BUT AT
THIS TIME THE DURATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT
AN SCA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN N-NE FLOW AOB 15KT THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH 2-3FT SEAS. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT...AND TRACKS NE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS LITTLE TO NO CAA IN
THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...SO CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SCA WITH A
WIND BECOMING WESTERLY BY TUESDAY. A POTENTIALLY STRONGER LOW TRACKS
W OF THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 190328
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1028 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO EASTWARD
AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA AGAIN DURING SUNDAY. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND UP ALONG THE COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS LIGHT ECHOES OVER THE NRN
LOCAL AREA AND NRN VA THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...LATEST KWAL SOUNDING
DEPICTS A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE FROM 12-16K FT AGL. THE DRY AIR
BELOW THAT LEVEL WILL PREVENT ANY PRECIP FROM REACHING THE GROUND.
THIS IN RESPONSE TO A SHEARING...LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE CROSSING THE
REGION. BASED ON BUFR SOUNDINGS AND LATEST IR SATELLITE
TRENDS...EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO STICK AROUND THRU LATE TONIGHT.
WAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...WITH SKIES
CLEARING THRU THE MORNING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
EXTEND INTO THE REGION...RESULTING IN CALM-LIGHT NLY WINDS. BUMPED
TEMPS DOWN A DEG OR TWO...EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER...IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS (GFS/NAM/ECMWF) CONTINUE TO TREND FARTHER S WITH PCPN AND
WEAK LO LATE FRI NGT INTO SAT NGT...DUE TO NRN STREAM UPR TROF
SWINGING EWRD FM THE UPR MIDWEST THRU THE GRT LKS. NAM IS THE
FARTHEST S AND THUS THE DRIEST MODEL. HI PRES STRETCHING FM
SCNTRL/SE CANADA SSE INTO THE MID ATLC WILL MAINTAIN DRY WX FRI
INTO FRI NGT. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ON FRI WITH HIGHS RANGING FM
THE MID 40S TO ARND 50. MOSTLY CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY FRI
NGT...WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS SPREADING IN FM THE SSW. COLD
AGAIN WITH LOWS RANGING FM THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S.

FOR SAT INTO SAT NGT...WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF WITH
LO PRES TRACKING FM THE GULF OF MEXICO EWRD AND OFF THE SE CST.
WILL GO WITH NO HIGHER THAN 30-40% POPS FOR EXTRM SRN VA AND NE NC
MAINLY SAT AFTN INTO EARLY SAT NGT. JUST HAVE SLGT CHC (20%) OR NO
PCPN (14%) ACRS NRN HALF OF CWA AT THIS TIME. ANY PCPN AT THE
ONSET OVR WRN/NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES COULD BE VERY LIGHT SLEET OR
SNOW. OTHERWISE...PCPN WILL BE JUST A COLD LIGHT RAIN...AND MAINLY
OVR EXTRM SRN VA AND NE NC. COULD BE A FEW FLURRIES MIXED IN AT
THE END EARLY SAT NGT. HI TEMPS ON SAT ONLY IN THE LWR TO MID 40S.
THE WEAK LO WILL BE WELL OFF THE SE CST LATE SAT NGT...WITH A MOSTLY
CLOUDY OR PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. LOWS SAT NGT RANGING FM THE UPR 20S
TO MID 30S. HI PRES WILL BE OVR THE AREA AGAIN DURING SUN. PARTLY
OR MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPR 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
TRACK NE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. TIMING
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE AMONGST 18/12Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...AND GIVEN
THIS POPS WILL REMAIN CAPPED IN THE CHC CATEGORY. POPS INCREASE TO
20-30% SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH 40-50% POPS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. PCPN TYPE SHOULD GENERALLY BE RAIN...ALTHOUGH THERE
COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET AT THE ONSET OVER THE NW PIEDMONT
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S NW...TO MID 50S SE...AFTER MORNING LOWS IN
THE LOW 30S NW...TO AROUND 40 SE. MID-LEVEL RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY (BRINGING MILDER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW 50S NW TO NEAR 60 SE)...BEFORE LOW PRESSURE AND A STRONG
COLD FRONT IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SPATIAL
AND TIMING DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE 18/12Z GFS TRACKING THE
SURFACE LOW W OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND THE 18/12Z ECMWF TRACKING THE
SURFACE LOW UP THE COASTAL PLAIN. THIS WILL HAVE IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES AND WHETHER THE RAIN IS MORE STRATIFORM OR SHOWERY. IF
THE FARTHER W 18/12Z GFS WERE TO VERIFY THERE COULD BE A POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDER. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THIS SOLUTION...SURFACE DEWPOINTS
AOA 60F REMAIN OFFSHORE. DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
PREVAIL BY CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THESE CLOUDS DISSIPATE BY
LATE MORNING. VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT GENERALLY FROM A NORTHERLY DIRECTION.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL FRIDAY NIGHT. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING WELL TO OUR SOUTH SAT/SAT NIGHT MAY BRING
A PERIOD OF BKN/OVC CONDITIONS BUT CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 4-5
K FT OR HIGHER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA
SUNDAY. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND COMPLEX FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES BEGINNING MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. A SECONDARY NNW SURGE ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. WIND SPEEDS OVER THE BAY COULD BRIEFLY REACH 20KT...BUT AT
THIS TIME THE DURATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT
AN SCA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN N-NE FLOW AOB 15KT THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH 2-3FT SEAS. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT...AND TRACKS NE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS LITTLE TO NO CAA IN
THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...SO CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SCA WITH A
WIND BECOMING WESTERLY BY TUESDAY. A POTENTIALLY STRONGER LOW TRACKS
W OF THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ






  [top]

000
FXUS61 KLWX 190157
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
857 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
A STRONGER LOW CROSSING THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 01Z...994MB SFC LOW OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES AND A 1030MB SFC
HIGH JUST WEST OF LAKE SUPERIOR (BOUNDARY WATERS). A WEAK UPR
SHORTWAVE LOW IS MOVING EAST FROM WEST VIRGINIA. LIGHT ECHOES HAVE
SPREAD EAST WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW REPORTED IN THE HARRISONBURG
AREA. ADDED SOME FLURRIES TO THE FORECAST FOR ALL ELEVATIONS ABOVE
500 FT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF FLURRY MENTION
FOR ENTIRE BALTIMORE METRO (WHERE ECHOES ARE ABOVE ABOUT 1200 FT
MSL AT 0148Z).

OTHERWISE...THICK MID-LEVEL CLOUDS PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. MIN
TEMPS MID TO UPR 20S WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE LOW 20S.



&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...LEADING TO TRANQUIL WEATHER AND LESS GUSTY WINDS. PERHAPS
SOME PASSING CLOUDS BUT EVEN OVERNIGHT WITH THE MORE SUPPRESSED
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...MOST OF THE CWA MAY ONLY SEE CIRRUS. NOT
MUCH TEMPERATURE ADVECTION...HIGHS PERHAPS A TICK WARMER BUT STILL
IN THE 40S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW FREEZING.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SEASONABLY CHILLY CONDITIONS DURING THIS
TIME.

A COUPLE SHORTWAVES...ONE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE JET AND ONE
IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM OF THE JET WILL PASS THROUGH OUR REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THESE SYSTEMS WILL NOT PHASE SO THE
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AS WELL.
THEREFORE...MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY DURING THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY BRUSH PORTIONS OF THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR SNOW IF PRECIPITATION OCCURS...BUT
LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE
REMAINING TO THE SOUTH.

MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS...BUT
LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SUNDAY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST AND FILL BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE PATTERN WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF A
SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ON TO NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL INCREASE ON
SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING EARLY HALF OF PERIOD. MARGINAL 1000-500 MB
THICKNESS VALUES AND AIR TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING MAY SUPPORT
SNOW...OR WINTRY MIX. MORE MOISTURE WILL FOLLOW AT MID WEEK AHEAD OF
LOW APPROACHING FROM THE MID WEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY HIGH
ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR MID LEVEL CIGS OVERNIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. NW FLOW 5-10 KT TONIGHT...10 TO 15 KT FRIDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN MAY IMPACT
KCHO. SUBVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE TERMINALS SUNDAY...BUT LOW
PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION AND SUBVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
SCA RETURNS FOR ALL BUT WESTERN TRIBUTARIES FRIDAY MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT 18 KT
GUSTS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. DUAL LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE WATERS EARLY AND MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ531>534-537-539>541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/BJL
NEAR TERM...BAJ/ADS
SHORT TERM...BJL/ADS
LONG TERM...BJL/CEM
AVIATION...BAJ/BJL/ADS
MARINE...BAJ/BJL/ADS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 190157
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
857 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
A STRONGER LOW CROSSING THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 01Z...994MB SFC LOW OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES AND A 1030MB SFC
HIGH JUST WEST OF LAKE SUPERIOR (BOUNDARY WATERS). A WEAK UPR
SHORTWAVE LOW IS MOVING EAST FROM WEST VIRGINIA. LIGHT ECHOES HAVE
SPREAD EAST WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW REPORTED IN THE HARRISONBURG
AREA. ADDED SOME FLURRIES TO THE FORECAST FOR ALL ELEVATIONS ABOVE
500 FT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF FLURRY MENTION
FOR ENTIRE BALTIMORE METRO (WHERE ECHOES ARE ABOVE ABOUT 1200 FT
MSL AT 0148Z).

OTHERWISE...THICK MID-LEVEL CLOUDS PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. MIN
TEMPS MID TO UPR 20S WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE LOW 20S.



&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...LEADING TO TRANQUIL WEATHER AND LESS GUSTY WINDS. PERHAPS
SOME PASSING CLOUDS BUT EVEN OVERNIGHT WITH THE MORE SUPPRESSED
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...MOST OF THE CWA MAY ONLY SEE CIRRUS. NOT
MUCH TEMPERATURE ADVECTION...HIGHS PERHAPS A TICK WARMER BUT STILL
IN THE 40S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW FREEZING.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SEASONABLY CHILLY CONDITIONS DURING THIS
TIME.

A COUPLE SHORTWAVES...ONE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE JET AND ONE
IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM OF THE JET WILL PASS THROUGH OUR REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THESE SYSTEMS WILL NOT PHASE SO THE
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AS WELL.
THEREFORE...MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY DURING THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY BRUSH PORTIONS OF THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR SNOW IF PRECIPITATION OCCURS...BUT
LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE
REMAINING TO THE SOUTH.

MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS...BUT
LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SUNDAY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST AND FILL BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE PATTERN WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF A
SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ON TO NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL INCREASE ON
SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING EARLY HALF OF PERIOD. MARGINAL 1000-500 MB
THICKNESS VALUES AND AIR TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING MAY SUPPORT
SNOW...OR WINTRY MIX. MORE MOISTURE WILL FOLLOW AT MID WEEK AHEAD OF
LOW APPROACHING FROM THE MID WEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY HIGH
ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR MID LEVEL CIGS OVERNIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. NW FLOW 5-10 KT TONIGHT...10 TO 15 KT FRIDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN MAY IMPACT
KCHO. SUBVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE TERMINALS SUNDAY...BUT LOW
PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION AND SUBVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
SCA RETURNS FOR ALL BUT WESTERN TRIBUTARIES FRIDAY MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT 18 KT
GUSTS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. DUAL LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE WATERS EARLY AND MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ531>534-537-539>541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/BJL
NEAR TERM...BAJ/ADS
SHORT TERM...BJL/ADS
LONG TERM...BJL/CEM
AVIATION...BAJ/BJL/ADS
MARINE...BAJ/BJL/ADS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 190157
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
857 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
A STRONGER LOW CROSSING THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 01Z...994MB SFC LOW OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES AND A 1030MB SFC
HIGH JUST WEST OF LAKE SUPERIOR (BOUNDARY WATERS). A WEAK UPR
SHORTWAVE LOW IS MOVING EAST FROM WEST VIRGINIA. LIGHT ECHOES HAVE
SPREAD EAST WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW REPORTED IN THE HARRISONBURG
AREA. ADDED SOME FLURRIES TO THE FORECAST FOR ALL ELEVATIONS ABOVE
500 FT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF FLURRY MENTION
FOR ENTIRE BALTIMORE METRO (WHERE ECHOES ARE ABOVE ABOUT 1200 FT
MSL AT 0148Z).

OTHERWISE...THICK MID-LEVEL CLOUDS PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. MIN
TEMPS MID TO UPR 20S WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE LOW 20S.



&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...LEADING TO TRANQUIL WEATHER AND LESS GUSTY WINDS. PERHAPS
SOME PASSING CLOUDS BUT EVEN OVERNIGHT WITH THE MORE SUPPRESSED
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...MOST OF THE CWA MAY ONLY SEE CIRRUS. NOT
MUCH TEMPERATURE ADVECTION...HIGHS PERHAPS A TICK WARMER BUT STILL
IN THE 40S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW FREEZING.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SEASONABLY CHILLY CONDITIONS DURING THIS
TIME.

A COUPLE SHORTWAVES...ONE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE JET AND ONE
IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM OF THE JET WILL PASS THROUGH OUR REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THESE SYSTEMS WILL NOT PHASE SO THE
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AS WELL.
THEREFORE...MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY DURING THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY BRUSH PORTIONS OF THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR SNOW IF PRECIPITATION OCCURS...BUT
LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE
REMAINING TO THE SOUTH.

MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS...BUT
LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SUNDAY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST AND FILL BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE PATTERN WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF A
SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ON TO NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL INCREASE ON
SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING EARLY HALF OF PERIOD. MARGINAL 1000-500 MB
THICKNESS VALUES AND AIR TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING MAY SUPPORT
SNOW...OR WINTRY MIX. MORE MOISTURE WILL FOLLOW AT MID WEEK AHEAD OF
LOW APPROACHING FROM THE MID WEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY HIGH
ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR MID LEVEL CIGS OVERNIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. NW FLOW 5-10 KT TONIGHT...10 TO 15 KT FRIDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN MAY IMPACT
KCHO. SUBVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE TERMINALS SUNDAY...BUT LOW
PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION AND SUBVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
SCA RETURNS FOR ALL BUT WESTERN TRIBUTARIES FRIDAY MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT 18 KT
GUSTS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. DUAL LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE WATERS EARLY AND MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ531>534-537-539>541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/BJL
NEAR TERM...BAJ/ADS
SHORT TERM...BJL/ADS
LONG TERM...BJL/CEM
AVIATION...BAJ/BJL/ADS
MARINE...BAJ/BJL/ADS








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 190054
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
754 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO EASTWARD
AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA AGAIN DURING SUNDAY. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND UP ALONG THE COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
DRY WX WILL CONTINUE TNGT INTO FRI MORNG...DESPITE A MID LEVEL
SHORTWV TROF PASSING N OF THE AREA. MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
AND COLD WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 20S TO LWR 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS (GFS/NAM/ECMWF) CONTINUE TO TREND FARTHER S WITH PCPN AND
WEAK LO LATE FRI NGT INTO SAT NGT...DUE TO NRN STREAM UPR TROF
SWINGING EWRD FM THE UPR MIDWEST THRU THE GRT LKS. NAM IS THE
FARTHEST S AND THUS THE DRIEST MODEL. HI PRES STRETCHING FM
SCNTRL/SE CANADA SSE INTO THE MID ATLC WILL MAINTAIN DRY WX FRI
INTO FRI NGT. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ON FRI WITH HIGHS RANGING FM
THE MID 40S TO ARND 50. MOSTLY CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY FRI
NGT...WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS SPREADING IN FM THE SSW. COLD
AGAIN WITH LOWS RANGING FM THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S.

FOR SAT INTO SAT NGT...WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF WITH
LO PRES TRACKING FM THE GULF OF MEXICO EWRD AND OFF THE SE CST.
WILL GO WITH NO HIGHER THAN 30-40% POPS FOR EXTRM SRN VA AND NE NC
MAINLY SAT AFTN INTO EARLY SAT NGT. JUST HAVE SLGT CHC (20%) OR NO
PCPN (14%) ACRS NRN HALF OF CWA AT THIS TIME. ANY PCPN AT THE
ONSET OVR WRN/NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES COULD BE VERY LIGHT SLEET OR
SNOW. OTHERWISE...PCPN WILL BE JUST A COLD LIGHT RAIN...AND MAINLY
OVR EXTRM SRN VA AND NE NC. COULD BE A FEW FLURRIES MIXED IN AT
THE END EARLY SAT NGT. HI TEMPS ON SAT ONLY IN THE LWR TO MID 40S.
THE WEAK LO WILL BE WELL OFF THE SE CST LATE SAT NGT...WITH A MOSTLY
CLOUDY OR PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. LOWS SAT NGT RANGING FM THE UPR 20S
TO MID 30S. HI PRES WILL BE OVR THE AREA AGAIN DURING SUN. PARTLY
OR MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPR 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
TRACK NE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. TIMING
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE AMONGST 18/12Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...AND GIVEN
THIS POPS WILL REMAIN CAPPED IN THE CHC CATEGORY. POPS INCREASE TO
20-30% SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH 40-50% POPS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. PCPN TYPE SHOULD GENERALLY BE RAIN...ALTHOUGH THERE
COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET AT THE ONSET OVER THE NW PIEDMONT
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S NW...TO MID 50S SE...AFTER MORNING LOWS IN
THE LOW 30S NW...TO AROUND 40 SE. MID-LEVEL RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY (BRINGING MILDER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW 50S NW TO NEAR 60 SE)...BEFORE LOW PRESSURE AND A STRONG
COLD FRONT IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SPATIAL
AND TIMING DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE 18/12Z GFS TRACKING THE
SURFACE LOW W OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND THE 18/12Z ECMWF TRACKING THE
SURFACE LOW UP THE COASTAL PLAIN. THIS WILL HAVE IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES AND WHETHER THE RAIN IS MORE STRATIFORM OR SHOWERY. IF
THE FARTHER W 18/12Z GFS WERE TO VERIFY THERE COULD BE A POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDER. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THIS SOLUTION...SURFACE DEWPOINTS
AOA 60F REMAIN OFFSHORE. DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
PREVAIL BY CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THESE CLOUDS DISSIPATE BY
LATE MORNING. VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT GENERALLY FROM A NORTHERLY DIRECTION.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL FRIDAY NIGHT. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING WELL TO OUR SOUTH SAT/SAT NIGHT MAY BRING
A PERIOD OF BKN/OVC CONDITIONS BUT CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 4-5
K FT OR HIGHER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA
SUNDAY. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND COMPLEX FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES BEGINNING MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. A SECONDARY NNW SURGE ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. WIND SPEEDS OVER THE BAY COULD BRIEFLY REACH 20KT...BUT AT
THIS TIME THE DURATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT
AN SCA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN N-NE FLOW AOB 15KT THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH 2-3FT SEAS. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT...AND TRACKS NE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS LITTLE TO NO CAA IN
THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...SO CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SCA WITH A
WIND BECOMING WESTERLY BY TUESDAY. A POTENTIALLY STRONGER LOW TRACKS
W OF THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ









000
FXUS61 KAKQ 190054
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
754 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO EASTWARD
AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA AGAIN DURING SUNDAY. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND UP ALONG THE COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
DRY WX WILL CONTINUE TNGT INTO FRI MORNG...DESPITE A MID LEVEL
SHORTWV TROF PASSING N OF THE AREA. MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
AND COLD WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 20S TO LWR 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS (GFS/NAM/ECMWF) CONTINUE TO TREND FARTHER S WITH PCPN AND
WEAK LO LATE FRI NGT INTO SAT NGT...DUE TO NRN STREAM UPR TROF
SWINGING EWRD FM THE UPR MIDWEST THRU THE GRT LKS. NAM IS THE
FARTHEST S AND THUS THE DRIEST MODEL. HI PRES STRETCHING FM
SCNTRL/SE CANADA SSE INTO THE MID ATLC WILL MAINTAIN DRY WX FRI
INTO FRI NGT. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ON FRI WITH HIGHS RANGING FM
THE MID 40S TO ARND 50. MOSTLY CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY FRI
NGT...WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS SPREADING IN FM THE SSW. COLD
AGAIN WITH LOWS RANGING FM THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S.

FOR SAT INTO SAT NGT...WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF WITH
LO PRES TRACKING FM THE GULF OF MEXICO EWRD AND OFF THE SE CST.
WILL GO WITH NO HIGHER THAN 30-40% POPS FOR EXTRM SRN VA AND NE NC
MAINLY SAT AFTN INTO EARLY SAT NGT. JUST HAVE SLGT CHC (20%) OR NO
PCPN (14%) ACRS NRN HALF OF CWA AT THIS TIME. ANY PCPN AT THE
ONSET OVR WRN/NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES COULD BE VERY LIGHT SLEET OR
SNOW. OTHERWISE...PCPN WILL BE JUST A COLD LIGHT RAIN...AND MAINLY
OVR EXTRM SRN VA AND NE NC. COULD BE A FEW FLURRIES MIXED IN AT
THE END EARLY SAT NGT. HI TEMPS ON SAT ONLY IN THE LWR TO MID 40S.
THE WEAK LO WILL BE WELL OFF THE SE CST LATE SAT NGT...WITH A MOSTLY
CLOUDY OR PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. LOWS SAT NGT RANGING FM THE UPR 20S
TO MID 30S. HI PRES WILL BE OVR THE AREA AGAIN DURING SUN. PARTLY
OR MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPR 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
TRACK NE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. TIMING
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE AMONGST 18/12Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...AND GIVEN
THIS POPS WILL REMAIN CAPPED IN THE CHC CATEGORY. POPS INCREASE TO
20-30% SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH 40-50% POPS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. PCPN TYPE SHOULD GENERALLY BE RAIN...ALTHOUGH THERE
COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET AT THE ONSET OVER THE NW PIEDMONT
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S NW...TO MID 50S SE...AFTER MORNING LOWS IN
THE LOW 30S NW...TO AROUND 40 SE. MID-LEVEL RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY (BRINGING MILDER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW 50S NW TO NEAR 60 SE)...BEFORE LOW PRESSURE AND A STRONG
COLD FRONT IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SPATIAL
AND TIMING DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE 18/12Z GFS TRACKING THE
SURFACE LOW W OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND THE 18/12Z ECMWF TRACKING THE
SURFACE LOW UP THE COASTAL PLAIN. THIS WILL HAVE IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES AND WHETHER THE RAIN IS MORE STRATIFORM OR SHOWERY. IF
THE FARTHER W 18/12Z GFS WERE TO VERIFY THERE COULD BE A POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDER. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THIS SOLUTION...SURFACE DEWPOINTS
AOA 60F REMAIN OFFSHORE. DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
PREVAIL BY CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THESE CLOUDS DISSIPATE BY
LATE MORNING. VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT GENERALLY FROM A NORTHERLY DIRECTION.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL FRIDAY NIGHT. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING WELL TO OUR SOUTH SAT/SAT NIGHT MAY BRING
A PERIOD OF BKN/OVC CONDITIONS BUT CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 4-5
K FT OR HIGHER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA
SUNDAY. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND COMPLEX FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES BEGINNING MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. A SECONDARY NNW SURGE ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. WIND SPEEDS OVER THE BAY COULD BRIEFLY REACH 20KT...BUT AT
THIS TIME THE DURATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT
AN SCA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN N-NE FLOW AOB 15KT THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH 2-3FT SEAS. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT...AND TRACKS NE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS LITTLE TO NO CAA IN
THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...SO CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SCA WITH A
WIND BECOMING WESTERLY BY TUESDAY. A POTENTIALLY STRONGER LOW TRACKS
W OF THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ









000
FXUS61 KAKQ 190054
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
754 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO EASTWARD
AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA AGAIN DURING SUNDAY. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND UP ALONG THE COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
DRY WX WILL CONTINUE TNGT INTO FRI MORNG...DESPITE A MID LEVEL
SHORTWV TROF PASSING N OF THE AREA. MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
AND COLD WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 20S TO LWR 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS (GFS/NAM/ECMWF) CONTINUE TO TREND FARTHER S WITH PCPN AND
WEAK LO LATE FRI NGT INTO SAT NGT...DUE TO NRN STREAM UPR TROF
SWINGING EWRD FM THE UPR MIDWEST THRU THE GRT LKS. NAM IS THE
FARTHEST S AND THUS THE DRIEST MODEL. HI PRES STRETCHING FM
SCNTRL/SE CANADA SSE INTO THE MID ATLC WILL MAINTAIN DRY WX FRI
INTO FRI NGT. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ON FRI WITH HIGHS RANGING FM
THE MID 40S TO ARND 50. MOSTLY CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY FRI
NGT...WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS SPREADING IN FM THE SSW. COLD
AGAIN WITH LOWS RANGING FM THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S.

FOR SAT INTO SAT NGT...WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF WITH
LO PRES TRACKING FM THE GULF OF MEXICO EWRD AND OFF THE SE CST.
WILL GO WITH NO HIGHER THAN 30-40% POPS FOR EXTRM SRN VA AND NE NC
MAINLY SAT AFTN INTO EARLY SAT NGT. JUST HAVE SLGT CHC (20%) OR NO
PCPN (14%) ACRS NRN HALF OF CWA AT THIS TIME. ANY PCPN AT THE
ONSET OVR WRN/NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES COULD BE VERY LIGHT SLEET OR
SNOW. OTHERWISE...PCPN WILL BE JUST A COLD LIGHT RAIN...AND MAINLY
OVR EXTRM SRN VA AND NE NC. COULD BE A FEW FLURRIES MIXED IN AT
THE END EARLY SAT NGT. HI TEMPS ON SAT ONLY IN THE LWR TO MID 40S.
THE WEAK LO WILL BE WELL OFF THE SE CST LATE SAT NGT...WITH A MOSTLY
CLOUDY OR PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. LOWS SAT NGT RANGING FM THE UPR 20S
TO MID 30S. HI PRES WILL BE OVR THE AREA AGAIN DURING SUN. PARTLY
OR MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPR 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
TRACK NE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. TIMING
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE AMONGST 18/12Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...AND GIVEN
THIS POPS WILL REMAIN CAPPED IN THE CHC CATEGORY. POPS INCREASE TO
20-30% SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH 40-50% POPS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. PCPN TYPE SHOULD GENERALLY BE RAIN...ALTHOUGH THERE
COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET AT THE ONSET OVER THE NW PIEDMONT
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S NW...TO MID 50S SE...AFTER MORNING LOWS IN
THE LOW 30S NW...TO AROUND 40 SE. MID-LEVEL RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY (BRINGING MILDER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW 50S NW TO NEAR 60 SE)...BEFORE LOW PRESSURE AND A STRONG
COLD FRONT IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SPATIAL
AND TIMING DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE 18/12Z GFS TRACKING THE
SURFACE LOW W OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND THE 18/12Z ECMWF TRACKING THE
SURFACE LOW UP THE COASTAL PLAIN. THIS WILL HAVE IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES AND WHETHER THE RAIN IS MORE STRATIFORM OR SHOWERY. IF
THE FARTHER W 18/12Z GFS WERE TO VERIFY THERE COULD BE A POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDER. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THIS SOLUTION...SURFACE DEWPOINTS
AOA 60F REMAIN OFFSHORE. DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
PREVAIL BY CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THESE CLOUDS DISSIPATE BY
LATE MORNING. VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT GENERALLY FROM A NORTHERLY DIRECTION.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL FRIDAY NIGHT. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING WELL TO OUR SOUTH SAT/SAT NIGHT MAY BRING
A PERIOD OF BKN/OVC CONDITIONS BUT CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 4-5
K FT OR HIGHER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA
SUNDAY. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND COMPLEX FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES BEGINNING MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. A SECONDARY NNW SURGE ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. WIND SPEEDS OVER THE BAY COULD BRIEFLY REACH 20KT...BUT AT
THIS TIME THE DURATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT
AN SCA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN N-NE FLOW AOB 15KT THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH 2-3FT SEAS. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT...AND TRACKS NE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS LITTLE TO NO CAA IN
THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...SO CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SCA WITH A
WIND BECOMING WESTERLY BY TUESDAY. A POTENTIALLY STRONGER LOW TRACKS
W OF THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ









000
FXUS61 KAKQ 190054
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
754 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO EASTWARD
AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA AGAIN DURING SUNDAY. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND UP ALONG THE COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
DRY WX WILL CONTINUE TNGT INTO FRI MORNG...DESPITE A MID LEVEL
SHORTWV TROF PASSING N OF THE AREA. MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
AND COLD WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 20S TO LWR 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS (GFS/NAM/ECMWF) CONTINUE TO TREND FARTHER S WITH PCPN AND
WEAK LO LATE FRI NGT INTO SAT NGT...DUE TO NRN STREAM UPR TROF
SWINGING EWRD FM THE UPR MIDWEST THRU THE GRT LKS. NAM IS THE
FARTHEST S AND THUS THE DRIEST MODEL. HI PRES STRETCHING FM
SCNTRL/SE CANADA SSE INTO THE MID ATLC WILL MAINTAIN DRY WX FRI
INTO FRI NGT. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ON FRI WITH HIGHS RANGING FM
THE MID 40S TO ARND 50. MOSTLY CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY FRI
NGT...WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS SPREADING IN FM THE SSW. COLD
AGAIN WITH LOWS RANGING FM THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S.

FOR SAT INTO SAT NGT...WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF WITH
LO PRES TRACKING FM THE GULF OF MEXICO EWRD AND OFF THE SE CST.
WILL GO WITH NO HIGHER THAN 30-40% POPS FOR EXTRM SRN VA AND NE NC
MAINLY SAT AFTN INTO EARLY SAT NGT. JUST HAVE SLGT CHC (20%) OR NO
PCPN (14%) ACRS NRN HALF OF CWA AT THIS TIME. ANY PCPN AT THE
ONSET OVR WRN/NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES COULD BE VERY LIGHT SLEET OR
SNOW. OTHERWISE...PCPN WILL BE JUST A COLD LIGHT RAIN...AND MAINLY
OVR EXTRM SRN VA AND NE NC. COULD BE A FEW FLURRIES MIXED IN AT
THE END EARLY SAT NGT. HI TEMPS ON SAT ONLY IN THE LWR TO MID 40S.
THE WEAK LO WILL BE WELL OFF THE SE CST LATE SAT NGT...WITH A MOSTLY
CLOUDY OR PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. LOWS SAT NGT RANGING FM THE UPR 20S
TO MID 30S. HI PRES WILL BE OVR THE AREA AGAIN DURING SUN. PARTLY
OR MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPR 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
TRACK NE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. TIMING
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE AMONGST 18/12Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...AND GIVEN
THIS POPS WILL REMAIN CAPPED IN THE CHC CATEGORY. POPS INCREASE TO
20-30% SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH 40-50% POPS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. PCPN TYPE SHOULD GENERALLY BE RAIN...ALTHOUGH THERE
COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET AT THE ONSET OVER THE NW PIEDMONT
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S NW...TO MID 50S SE...AFTER MORNING LOWS IN
THE LOW 30S NW...TO AROUND 40 SE. MID-LEVEL RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY (BRINGING MILDER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW 50S NW TO NEAR 60 SE)...BEFORE LOW PRESSURE AND A STRONG
COLD FRONT IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SPATIAL
AND TIMING DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE 18/12Z GFS TRACKING THE
SURFACE LOW W OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND THE 18/12Z ECMWF TRACKING THE
SURFACE LOW UP THE COASTAL PLAIN. THIS WILL HAVE IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES AND WHETHER THE RAIN IS MORE STRATIFORM OR SHOWERY. IF
THE FARTHER W 18/12Z GFS WERE TO VERIFY THERE COULD BE A POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDER. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THIS SOLUTION...SURFACE DEWPOINTS
AOA 60F REMAIN OFFSHORE. DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
PREVAIL BY CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THESE CLOUDS DISSIPATE BY
LATE MORNING. VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT GENERALLY FROM A NORTHERLY DIRECTION.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL FRIDAY NIGHT. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING WELL TO OUR SOUTH SAT/SAT NIGHT MAY BRING
A PERIOD OF BKN/OVC CONDITIONS BUT CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 4-5
K FT OR HIGHER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA
SUNDAY. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND COMPLEX FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES BEGINNING MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. A SECONDARY NNW SURGE ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. WIND SPEEDS OVER THE BAY COULD BRIEFLY REACH 20KT...BUT AT
THIS TIME THE DURATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT
AN SCA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN N-NE FLOW AOB 15KT THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH 2-3FT SEAS. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT...AND TRACKS NE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS LITTLE TO NO CAA IN
THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...SO CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SCA WITH A
WIND BECOMING WESTERLY BY TUESDAY. A POTENTIALLY STRONGER LOW TRACKS
W OF THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ









000
FXUS61 KRNK 182333
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
633 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN OVERALL DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP ALONG
THE GULF COAST STATES FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST OVER
THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION SATURDAY MORNING...CHANGING TO RAIN
OVER THE PIEDMONT IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 615 PM EST THURSDAY...

REALLY NOT MUCH TO UPDATE OVERALL IN THE FORECAST. SOME LIGHT
RETURNS ON RADAR OVER THE MTNS OF SE WV...MAY BRING A FLURRY/SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH LITTLE/NO ACCUMULATION THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH OVERNIGHT IN THE WEST AS FLOW
TURNS MORE NW...WHILE THE HIGHER CLOUDS OUT EAST THIN OUT.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

WAVE ALOFT PASSES EAST OVERNIGHT LEAVING WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE
AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW NOSES BACK IN LATE.

CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON KEPT TEMPERATURES COOL AND THIS SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO COOLER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. WITH AFTERNOON DEW
POINTS MAINTAINING IN THE L/M 20S...ANY SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING WITH
LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RADIATE DOWN COLDER THAN
FORECASTED. CURRENT THINKING IS TO HAVE SOME CLOUDS AND/OR MIXING
OVERNIGHT TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN BETWEEN GFS AND NAM MOS.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE ON THE DRY SIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REMAINS THE
MAIN FEATURE IN OUR WEATHER PATTERN. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES...TO AROUND 50
OVER THE SOUTHSIDE AND THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EST THURSDAY...

MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING QUITE A BIT WEAKER WITH THE SHORT WAVE
COMING OUT OF ARIZONA AND REACHING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON
SATURDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND VORTICITY ADVECTION COME THROUGH ON
SATURDAY AND WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE GUIDANCE IS WITH THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE. 12Z GUIDANCE NOW KEEPS BULK OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY THE 12Z NAM. WILL FOLLOW THIS
TREND AND LOWER PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN ALL BUT THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. WILL ALSO CUT BACK ON
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE EAST AND WILL BE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY.
THE HIGH CONTINUES SLOW PROGRESS TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND BY
LATE SUNDAY THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OFFSHORE. THIS WILL BEGIN TO
BRING SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS AROUND TO THE SOUTH LATE IN THE
DAY. SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE SHORT WAVE ON SATURDAY WILL BE AN
INVERTED TROF OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. EXPECT CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY COOLER
THAN GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST THURSDAY...

A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE
WITH ENOUGH MODEL DIFFERENCES TO MAKE THE DETAILS OF THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER A GOOD CHALLENGE. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST SUNDAY NIGHT...PUSH MOISTURE
NORTHWARD AND INTRODUCING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN...AND POTENTIALLY
FREEZING PRECIPITATION TO THE MOUNTAINS. UTILIZED THE TOPDOWN
APPROACH LEANING TOWARDS GFS FOR TEMPERATURE PROFILES. HELD LOW
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW MOS WITH CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION. IN GENERAL...SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE PIEDMONT.

FOR MONDAY...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WITH AXIS OF
MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION MOVING NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE
WEST. HOW MUCH THE LOW CENTER DEEPENS...ITS ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION AND PTYPE REMAINS PROBLEMATIC FOR OUR REGION. EACH
MODEL HAS A DIFFERENT TAKE ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WARM NOSE OVER
OUR REGION. WILL MAINTAIN THE RAIN VERSUS FREEZING RAIN FORECAST
DURING MUCH OF MONDAY MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET ACROSS THE VIRGINIA
HIGHLANDS AND SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY. FELT THAT THERE WAS
ENOUGH SUPPORT TO RAISE POPS FROM SLIGHT INTO THE CHANCE LEVEL
MONDAY. KEPT HIGHS MONDAY COOLER THAN GUIDANCE WITH READINGS FROM
THE MID 30S IN THE WEST TO THE MID 40S IN THE EAST.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST WITH
TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A
DEEP LONGITUDINAL TROUGH DEVELOPS SOUTH TO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
OUR REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION. USING
SUPERBLEND FOR LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT PRODUCED READINGS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
MILDER FOR HIGHS TUESDAY FROM THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BOTH GFS AND ECWMF DEEPEN THE
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH AND NEGATIVELY TILT THE FEATURE SO
THAT THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST...COINCIDENT TO THE POSITION OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
OCCLUDED FRONT...WITH THE TRIPLE POINT PASSING SOMEWHERE NEAR OR
JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION. AT THIS TIME...SPC DOES NOT HAVE ANY
THUNDERSTORMS IN ITS DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. IT LOOKS
LIKE...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR OUR REGION TO HAVE ACTIVE
WEATHER LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH PLENTY OF
SHOWERS...PERHAPS VERY GUSTY WINDS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

COLD AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...ALLOWING FOR SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. IF ENOUGH COLD
AIR ARRIVES QUICKLY...THERE COULD BE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE WEST AS THE LOW CENTER MARCHES NORTHEAST PUSHES A COLD
FRONT TO THE COAST. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT A COOLING TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. UPPER FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST AS TROF CURVES OUT
IN THE CENTRAL US WITH SFC INFLECTION OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 625 PM EST THURSDAY...

VFR CIGS AT 5-9KFT THIS EVENING WILL SCATTER OUT EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE TOWARD DAWN. MEANWHILE...NW FLOW BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE WILL
INTRODUCE LOWER CIGS TO LWB/BLF OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR AT LWB BY
05Z...AND MVFR TO IFR AT BLF IN THE 04-07Z TIME FRAME. BCB WILL
STAY OUTSIDE THE LOWER CIGS...AND SCATTER OUT BY 14Z FRIDAY.

MODELS HAVE LOWER CIGS IN THE WEST SCATTERING OUT BY LATE FRIDAY
MORNING WITH VFR ALL SITES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THE FRI NIGHT-SAT SYSTEM NOW HAS TRENDED WEAKER BUT WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED AS IT WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF SUB VFR
WINTRY WEATHER ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST SAT.

ON THE HEELS OF THIS FRIDAY/SATURDAY SYSTEM WILL BE ANOTHER
SYSTEM TO POTENTIALLY IMPACT MAINLY THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH YET ANOTHER SYSTEM SLATED
FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THESE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO
BRING A PERIOD MAINLY RAIN BUT COULD BE SOME WINTRY WX AS WELL
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT POTENTIAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
AS WELL AND POOR FLYING WEATHER MONDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...RCS/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...JH/RCS/WP



000
FXUS61 KRNK 182333
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
633 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN OVERALL DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP ALONG
THE GULF COAST STATES FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST OVER
THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION SATURDAY MORNING...CHANGING TO RAIN
OVER THE PIEDMONT IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 615 PM EST THURSDAY...

REALLY NOT MUCH TO UPDATE OVERALL IN THE FORECAST. SOME LIGHT
RETURNS ON RADAR OVER THE MTNS OF SE WV...MAY BRING A FLURRY/SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH LITTLE/NO ACCUMULATION THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH OVERNIGHT IN THE WEST AS FLOW
TURNS MORE NW...WHILE THE HIGHER CLOUDS OUT EAST THIN OUT.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

WAVE ALOFT PASSES EAST OVERNIGHT LEAVING WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE
AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW NOSES BACK IN LATE.

CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON KEPT TEMPERATURES COOL AND THIS SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO COOLER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. WITH AFTERNOON DEW
POINTS MAINTAINING IN THE L/M 20S...ANY SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING WITH
LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RADIATE DOWN COLDER THAN
FORECASTED. CURRENT THINKING IS TO HAVE SOME CLOUDS AND/OR MIXING
OVERNIGHT TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN BETWEEN GFS AND NAM MOS.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE ON THE DRY SIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REMAINS THE
MAIN FEATURE IN OUR WEATHER PATTERN. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES...TO AROUND 50
OVER THE SOUTHSIDE AND THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EST THURSDAY...

MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING QUITE A BIT WEAKER WITH THE SHORT WAVE
COMING OUT OF ARIZONA AND REACHING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON
SATURDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND VORTICITY ADVECTION COME THROUGH ON
SATURDAY AND WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE GUIDANCE IS WITH THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE. 12Z GUIDANCE NOW KEEPS BULK OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY THE 12Z NAM. WILL FOLLOW THIS
TREND AND LOWER PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN ALL BUT THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. WILL ALSO CUT BACK ON
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE EAST AND WILL BE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY.
THE HIGH CONTINUES SLOW PROGRESS TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND BY
LATE SUNDAY THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OFFSHORE. THIS WILL BEGIN TO
BRING SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS AROUND TO THE SOUTH LATE IN THE
DAY. SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE SHORT WAVE ON SATURDAY WILL BE AN
INVERTED TROF OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. EXPECT CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY COOLER
THAN GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST THURSDAY...

A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE
WITH ENOUGH MODEL DIFFERENCES TO MAKE THE DETAILS OF THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER A GOOD CHALLENGE. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST SUNDAY NIGHT...PUSH MOISTURE
NORTHWARD AND INTRODUCING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN...AND POTENTIALLY
FREEZING PRECIPITATION TO THE MOUNTAINS. UTILIZED THE TOPDOWN
APPROACH LEANING TOWARDS GFS FOR TEMPERATURE PROFILES. HELD LOW
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW MOS WITH CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION. IN GENERAL...SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE PIEDMONT.

FOR MONDAY...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WITH AXIS OF
MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION MOVING NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE
WEST. HOW MUCH THE LOW CENTER DEEPENS...ITS ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION AND PTYPE REMAINS PROBLEMATIC FOR OUR REGION. EACH
MODEL HAS A DIFFERENT TAKE ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WARM NOSE OVER
OUR REGION. WILL MAINTAIN THE RAIN VERSUS FREEZING RAIN FORECAST
DURING MUCH OF MONDAY MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET ACROSS THE VIRGINIA
HIGHLANDS AND SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY. FELT THAT THERE WAS
ENOUGH SUPPORT TO RAISE POPS FROM SLIGHT INTO THE CHANCE LEVEL
MONDAY. KEPT HIGHS MONDAY COOLER THAN GUIDANCE WITH READINGS FROM
THE MID 30S IN THE WEST TO THE MID 40S IN THE EAST.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST WITH
TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A
DEEP LONGITUDINAL TROUGH DEVELOPS SOUTH TO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
OUR REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION. USING
SUPERBLEND FOR LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT PRODUCED READINGS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
MILDER FOR HIGHS TUESDAY FROM THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BOTH GFS AND ECWMF DEEPEN THE
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH AND NEGATIVELY TILT THE FEATURE SO
THAT THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST...COINCIDENT TO THE POSITION OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
OCCLUDED FRONT...WITH THE TRIPLE POINT PASSING SOMEWHERE NEAR OR
JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION. AT THIS TIME...SPC DOES NOT HAVE ANY
THUNDERSTORMS IN ITS DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. IT LOOKS
LIKE...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR OUR REGION TO HAVE ACTIVE
WEATHER LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH PLENTY OF
SHOWERS...PERHAPS VERY GUSTY WINDS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

COLD AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...ALLOWING FOR SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. IF ENOUGH COLD
AIR ARRIVES QUICKLY...THERE COULD BE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE WEST AS THE LOW CENTER MARCHES NORTHEAST PUSHES A COLD
FRONT TO THE COAST. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT A COOLING TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. UPPER FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST AS TROF CURVES OUT
IN THE CENTRAL US WITH SFC INFLECTION OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 625 PM EST THURSDAY...

VFR CIGS AT 5-9KFT THIS EVENING WILL SCATTER OUT EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE TOWARD DAWN. MEANWHILE...NW FLOW BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE WILL
INTRODUCE LOWER CIGS TO LWB/BLF OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR AT LWB BY
05Z...AND MVFR TO IFR AT BLF IN THE 04-07Z TIME FRAME. BCB WILL
STAY OUTSIDE THE LOWER CIGS...AND SCATTER OUT BY 14Z FRIDAY.

MODELS HAVE LOWER CIGS IN THE WEST SCATTERING OUT BY LATE FRIDAY
MORNING WITH VFR ALL SITES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THE FRI NIGHT-SAT SYSTEM NOW HAS TRENDED WEAKER BUT WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED AS IT WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF SUB VFR
WINTRY WEATHER ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST SAT.

ON THE HEELS OF THIS FRIDAY/SATURDAY SYSTEM WILL BE ANOTHER
SYSTEM TO POTENTIALLY IMPACT MAINLY THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH YET ANOTHER SYSTEM SLATED
FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THESE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO
BRING A PERIOD MAINLY RAIN BUT COULD BE SOME WINTRY WX AS WELL
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT POTENTIAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
AS WELL AND POOR FLYING WEATHER MONDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...RCS/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...JH/RCS/WP




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 182103
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
403 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO EASTWARD
AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA AGAIN DURING SUNDAY. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND UP ALONG THE COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
DRY WX WILL CONTINUE TNGT INTO FRI MORNG...DESPITE A MID LEVEL
SHORTWV TROF PASSING N OF THE AREA. MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
AND COLD WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 20S TO LWR 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS (GFS/NAM/ECMWF) CONTINUE TO TREND FARTHER S WITH PCPN AND
WEAK LO LATE FRI NGT INTO SAT NGT...DUE TO NRN STREAM UPR TROF
SWINGING EWRD FM THE UPR MIDWEST THRU THE GRT LKS. NAM IS THE
FARTHEST S AND THUS THE DRIEST MODEL. HI PRES STRETCHING FM
SCNTRL/SE CANADA SSE INTO THE MID ATLC WILL MAINTAIN DRY WX FRI
INTO FRI NGT. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ON FRI WITH HIGHS RANGING FM
THE MID 40S TO ARND 50. MOSTLY CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY FRI
NGT...WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS SPREADING IN FM THE SSW. COLD
AGAIN WITH LOWS RANGING FM THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S.

FOR SAT INTO SAT NGT...WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF WITH
LO PRES TRACKING FM THE GULF OF MEXICO EWRD AND OFF THE SE CST.
WILL GO WITH NO HIGHER THAN 30-40% POPS FOR EXTRM SRN VA AND NE NC
MAINLY SAT AFTN INTO EARLY SAT NGT. JUST HAVE SLGT CHC (20%) OR NO
PCPN (14%) ACRS NRN HALF OF CWA AT THIS TIME. ANY PCPN AT THE
ONSET OVR WRN/NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES COULD BE VERY LIGHT SLEET OR
SNOW. OTHERWISE...PCPN WILL BE JUST A COLD LIGHT RAIN...AND MAINLY
OVR EXTRM SRN VA AND NE NC. COULD BE A FEW FLURRIES MIXED IN AT
THE END EARLY SAT NGT. HI TEMPS ON SAT ONLY IN THE LWR TO MID 40S.
THE WEAK LO WILL BE WELL OFF THE SE CST LATE SAT NGT...WITH A MOSTLY
CLOUDY OR PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. LOWS SAT NGT RANGING FM THE UPR 20S
TO MID 30S. HI PRES WILL BE OVR THE AREA AGAIN DURING SUN. PARTLY
OR MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPR 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
TRACK NE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. TIMING
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE AMONGST 18/12Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...AND GIVEN
THIS POPS WILL REMAIN CAPPED IN THE CHC CATEGORY. POPS INCREASE TO
20-30% SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH 40-50% POPS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. PCPN TYPE SHOULD GENERALLY BE RAIN...ALTHOUGH THERE
COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET AT THE ONSET OVER THE NW PIEDMONT
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S NW...TO MID 50S SE...AFTER MORNING LOWS IN
THE LOW 30S NW...TO AROUND 40 SE. MID-LEVEL RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY (BRINGING MILDER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW 50S NW TO NEAR 60 SE)...BEFORE LOW PRESSURE AND A STRONG
COLD FRONT IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SPATIAL
AND TIMING DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE 18/12Z GFS TRACKING THE
SURFACE LOW W OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND THE 18/12Z ECMWF TRACKING THE
SURFACE LOW UP THE COASTAL PLAIN. THIS WILL HAVE IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES AND WHETHER THE RAIN IS MORE STRATIFORM OR SHOWERY. IF
THE FARTHER W 18/12Z GFS WERE TO VERIFY THERE COULD BE A POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDER. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THIS SOLUTION...SURFACE DEWPOINTS
AOA 60F REMAIN OFFSHORE. DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
PREVAIL BY CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH EXPECT TO
SEE SOME MID LEVEL CIGS FROM 10-15 K FT THIS EVENING INTO EARLY
FRI MORNING PER LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.
WINDS GENLY WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KT...EXCEPT FOR SOME 10-15 KT NW
WINDS THROUGH 22Z THIS AFTN AT KSBY.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES FRIDAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AVERAGING
10 KT OR LESS AND CLEARING SKIES. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING WELL
TO OUR SOUTH SAT/SAT NIGHT MAY BRING A PERIOD OF BKN/OVC CONDITIONS
BUT CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 4-5 K FT OR HIGHER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MON BRINGING
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. A SECONDARY NNW SURGE ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. WIND SPEEDS OVER THE BAY COULD BRIEFLY REACH 20KT...BUT AT
THIS TIME THE DURATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT
AN SCA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN N-NE FLOW AOB 15KT THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH 2-3FT SEAS. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT...AND TRACKS NE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS LITTLE TO NO CAA IN
THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...SO CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SCA WITH A
WIND BECOMING WESTERLY BY TUESDAY. A POTENTIALLY STRONGER LOW TRACKS
W OF THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...AJZ






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 182103
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
403 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO EASTWARD
AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA AGAIN DURING SUNDAY. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND UP ALONG THE COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
DRY WX WILL CONTINUE TNGT INTO FRI MORNG...DESPITE A MID LEVEL
SHORTWV TROF PASSING N OF THE AREA. MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
AND COLD WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 20S TO LWR 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS (GFS/NAM/ECMWF) CONTINUE TO TREND FARTHER S WITH PCPN AND
WEAK LO LATE FRI NGT INTO SAT NGT...DUE TO NRN STREAM UPR TROF
SWINGING EWRD FM THE UPR MIDWEST THRU THE GRT LKS. NAM IS THE
FARTHEST S AND THUS THE DRIEST MODEL. HI PRES STRETCHING FM
SCNTRL/SE CANADA SSE INTO THE MID ATLC WILL MAINTAIN DRY WX FRI
INTO FRI NGT. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ON FRI WITH HIGHS RANGING FM
THE MID 40S TO ARND 50. MOSTLY CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY FRI
NGT...WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS SPREADING IN FM THE SSW. COLD
AGAIN WITH LOWS RANGING FM THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S.

FOR SAT INTO SAT NGT...WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF WITH
LO PRES TRACKING FM THE GULF OF MEXICO EWRD AND OFF THE SE CST.
WILL GO WITH NO HIGHER THAN 30-40% POPS FOR EXTRM SRN VA AND NE NC
MAINLY SAT AFTN INTO EARLY SAT NGT. JUST HAVE SLGT CHC (20%) OR NO
PCPN (14%) ACRS NRN HALF OF CWA AT THIS TIME. ANY PCPN AT THE
ONSET OVR WRN/NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES COULD BE VERY LIGHT SLEET OR
SNOW. OTHERWISE...PCPN WILL BE JUST A COLD LIGHT RAIN...AND MAINLY
OVR EXTRM SRN VA AND NE NC. COULD BE A FEW FLURRIES MIXED IN AT
THE END EARLY SAT NGT. HI TEMPS ON SAT ONLY IN THE LWR TO MID 40S.
THE WEAK LO WILL BE WELL OFF THE SE CST LATE SAT NGT...WITH A MOSTLY
CLOUDY OR PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. LOWS SAT NGT RANGING FM THE UPR 20S
TO MID 30S. HI PRES WILL BE OVR THE AREA AGAIN DURING SUN. PARTLY
OR MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPR 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
TRACK NE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. TIMING
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE AMONGST 18/12Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...AND GIVEN
THIS POPS WILL REMAIN CAPPED IN THE CHC CATEGORY. POPS INCREASE TO
20-30% SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH 40-50% POPS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. PCPN TYPE SHOULD GENERALLY BE RAIN...ALTHOUGH THERE
COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET AT THE ONSET OVER THE NW PIEDMONT
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S NW...TO MID 50S SE...AFTER MORNING LOWS IN
THE LOW 30S NW...TO AROUND 40 SE. MID-LEVEL RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY (BRINGING MILDER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW 50S NW TO NEAR 60 SE)...BEFORE LOW PRESSURE AND A STRONG
COLD FRONT IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SPATIAL
AND TIMING DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE 18/12Z GFS TRACKING THE
SURFACE LOW W OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND THE 18/12Z ECMWF TRACKING THE
SURFACE LOW UP THE COASTAL PLAIN. THIS WILL HAVE IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES AND WHETHER THE RAIN IS MORE STRATIFORM OR SHOWERY. IF
THE FARTHER W 18/12Z GFS WERE TO VERIFY THERE COULD BE A POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDER. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THIS SOLUTION...SURFACE DEWPOINTS
AOA 60F REMAIN OFFSHORE. DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
PREVAIL BY CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH EXPECT TO
SEE SOME MID LEVEL CIGS FROM 10-15 K FT THIS EVENING INTO EARLY
FRI MORNING PER LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.
WINDS GENLY WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KT...EXCEPT FOR SOME 10-15 KT NW
WINDS THROUGH 22Z THIS AFTN AT KSBY.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES FRIDAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AVERAGING
10 KT OR LESS AND CLEARING SKIES. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING WELL
TO OUR SOUTH SAT/SAT NIGHT MAY BRING A PERIOD OF BKN/OVC CONDITIONS
BUT CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 4-5 K FT OR HIGHER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MON BRINGING
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. A SECONDARY NNW SURGE ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. WIND SPEEDS OVER THE BAY COULD BRIEFLY REACH 20KT...BUT AT
THIS TIME THE DURATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT
AN SCA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN N-NE FLOW AOB 15KT THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH 2-3FT SEAS. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT...AND TRACKS NE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS LITTLE TO NO CAA IN
THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...SO CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SCA WITH A
WIND BECOMING WESTERLY BY TUESDAY. A POTENTIALLY STRONGER LOW TRACKS
W OF THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...AJZ







000
FXUS61 KLWX 182016
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
316 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A
SECONDARY LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO DEVELOP IN THE OHIO
VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
STRATOCUMULUS HAS BEEN STUBBORN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT APPEARS THEY
WILL GRADUALLY ERODE FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. MAY HANG ON
ALONG THE MD/PA BORDER INTO THE NIGHT. EVEN THOUGH PRECIP ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY HAS SHOWN A
WEAKENING TREND WHILE MOVING INTO A DRIER AIRMASS...THOUGHT IT WAS
WORTHWHILE TO AT LEAST MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE MOST FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...A BLANKET OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM PLUMMETING TO THE DEW POINTS...BUT LOWS WILL STILL DIP BELOW
FREEZING IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...LEADING TO TRANQUIL WEATHER AND LESS GUSTY WINDS. PERHAPS
SOME PASSING CLOUDS BUT EVEN OVERNIGHT WITH THE MORE SUPPRESSED
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...MOST OF THE CWA MAY ONLY SEE CIRRUS. NOT
MUCH TEMPERATURE ADVECTION...HIGHS PERHAPS A TICK WARMER BUT STILL
IN THE 40S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW FREEZING.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SEASONABLY CHILLY CONDITIONS DURING THIS
TIME.

A COUPLE SHORTWAVES...ONE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE JET AND ONE
IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM OF THE JET WILL PASS THROUGH OUR REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THESE SYSTEMS WILL NOT PHASE SO THE
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AS WELL.
THEREFORE...MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY DURING THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY BRUSH PORTIONS OF THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR SNOW IF PRECIPITATION OCCURS...BUT
LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE
REMAINING TO THE SOUTH.

MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS...BUT
LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SUNDAY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST AND FILL BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE PATTERN WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF A
SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ON TO NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL INCREASE ON
SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING EARLY HALF OF PERIOD. MARGINAL 1000-500 MB
THICKNESS VALUES AND AIR TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING MAY SUPPORT
SNOW...OR WINTRY MIX. MORE MOISTURE WILL FOLLOW AT MID WEEK AHEAD OF
LOW APPROACHING FROM THE MID WEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY HIGH
ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BKN CIGS NEAR 4KFT SHOULD ERODE BY LATE AFTERNOON BUT GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING MID LEVEL CIGS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE NW BUT BECOME LESS
GUSTY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN MAY IMPACT
KCHO. SUBVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE TERMINALS SUNDAY...BUT LOW
PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION AND SUBVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTS THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. EXTENDED BOTH
SEGMENTS OF THE SCA INTO THIS EVENING AS NOT SURE THE GUST WILL
DECREASE TOO QUICKLY. WINDS INCREASE AGAIN FOR THE DAYTIME OF
FRIDAY...WITH A SCA GOING INTO EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE WATERS. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ531>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...BJL/ADS
LONG TERM...BJL/CEM
AVIATION...BJL/ADS
MARINE...BJL/ADS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 182016
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
316 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A
SECONDARY LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO DEVELOP IN THE OHIO
VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
STRATOCUMULUS HAS BEEN STUBBORN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT APPEARS THEY
WILL GRADUALLY ERODE FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. MAY HANG ON
ALONG THE MD/PA BORDER INTO THE NIGHT. EVEN THOUGH PRECIP ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY HAS SHOWN A
WEAKENING TREND WHILE MOVING INTO A DRIER AIRMASS...THOUGHT IT WAS
WORTHWHILE TO AT LEAST MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE MOST FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...A BLANKET OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM PLUMMETING TO THE DEW POINTS...BUT LOWS WILL STILL DIP BELOW
FREEZING IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...LEADING TO TRANQUIL WEATHER AND LESS GUSTY WINDS. PERHAPS
SOME PASSING CLOUDS BUT EVEN OVERNIGHT WITH THE MORE SUPPRESSED
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...MOST OF THE CWA MAY ONLY SEE CIRRUS. NOT
MUCH TEMPERATURE ADVECTION...HIGHS PERHAPS A TICK WARMER BUT STILL
IN THE 40S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW FREEZING.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SEASONABLY CHILLY CONDITIONS DURING THIS
TIME.

A COUPLE SHORTWAVES...ONE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE JET AND ONE
IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM OF THE JET WILL PASS THROUGH OUR REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THESE SYSTEMS WILL NOT PHASE SO THE
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AS WELL.
THEREFORE...MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY DURING THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY BRUSH PORTIONS OF THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR SNOW IF PRECIPITATION OCCURS...BUT
LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE
REMAINING TO THE SOUTH.

MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS...BUT
LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SUNDAY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST AND FILL BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE PATTERN WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF A
SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ON TO NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL INCREASE ON
SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING EARLY HALF OF PERIOD. MARGINAL 1000-500 MB
THICKNESS VALUES AND AIR TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING MAY SUPPORT
SNOW...OR WINTRY MIX. MORE MOISTURE WILL FOLLOW AT MID WEEK AHEAD OF
LOW APPROACHING FROM THE MID WEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY HIGH
ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BKN CIGS NEAR 4KFT SHOULD ERODE BY LATE AFTERNOON BUT GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING MID LEVEL CIGS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE NW BUT BECOME LESS
GUSTY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN MAY IMPACT
KCHO. SUBVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE TERMINALS SUNDAY...BUT LOW
PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION AND SUBVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTS THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. EXTENDED BOTH
SEGMENTS OF THE SCA INTO THIS EVENING AS NOT SURE THE GUST WILL
DECREASE TOO QUICKLY. WINDS INCREASE AGAIN FOR THE DAYTIME OF
FRIDAY...WITH A SCA GOING INTO EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE WATERS. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ531>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...BJL/ADS
LONG TERM...BJL/CEM
AVIATION...BJL/ADS
MARINE...BJL/ADS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 182016
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
316 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A
SECONDARY LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO DEVELOP IN THE OHIO
VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
STRATOCUMULUS HAS BEEN STUBBORN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT APPEARS THEY
WILL GRADUALLY ERODE FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. MAY HANG ON
ALONG THE MD/PA BORDER INTO THE NIGHT. EVEN THOUGH PRECIP ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY HAS SHOWN A
WEAKENING TREND WHILE MOVING INTO A DRIER AIRMASS...THOUGHT IT WAS
WORTHWHILE TO AT LEAST MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE MOST FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...A BLANKET OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM PLUMMETING TO THE DEW POINTS...BUT LOWS WILL STILL DIP BELOW
FREEZING IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...LEADING TO TRANQUIL WEATHER AND LESS GUSTY WINDS. PERHAPS
SOME PASSING CLOUDS BUT EVEN OVERNIGHT WITH THE MORE SUPPRESSED
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...MOST OF THE CWA MAY ONLY SEE CIRRUS. NOT
MUCH TEMPERATURE ADVECTION...HIGHS PERHAPS A TICK WARMER BUT STILL
IN THE 40S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW FREEZING.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SEASONABLY CHILLY CONDITIONS DURING THIS
TIME.

A COUPLE SHORTWAVES...ONE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE JET AND ONE
IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM OF THE JET WILL PASS THROUGH OUR REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THESE SYSTEMS WILL NOT PHASE SO THE
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AS WELL.
THEREFORE...MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY DURING THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY BRUSH PORTIONS OF THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR SNOW IF PRECIPITATION OCCURS...BUT
LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE
REMAINING TO THE SOUTH.

MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS...BUT
LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SUNDAY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST AND FILL BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE PATTERN WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF A
SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ON TO NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL INCREASE ON
SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING EARLY HALF OF PERIOD. MARGINAL 1000-500 MB
THICKNESS VALUES AND AIR TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING MAY SUPPORT
SNOW...OR WINTRY MIX. MORE MOISTURE WILL FOLLOW AT MID WEEK AHEAD OF
LOW APPROACHING FROM THE MID WEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY HIGH
ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BKN CIGS NEAR 4KFT SHOULD ERODE BY LATE AFTERNOON BUT GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING MID LEVEL CIGS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE NW BUT BECOME LESS
GUSTY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN MAY IMPACT
KCHO. SUBVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE TERMINALS SUNDAY...BUT LOW
PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION AND SUBVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTS THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. EXTENDED BOTH
SEGMENTS OF THE SCA INTO THIS EVENING AS NOT SURE THE GUST WILL
DECREASE TOO QUICKLY. WINDS INCREASE AGAIN FOR THE DAYTIME OF
FRIDAY...WITH A SCA GOING INTO EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE WATERS. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ531>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...BJL/ADS
LONG TERM...BJL/CEM
AVIATION...BJL/ADS
MARINE...BJL/ADS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 182016
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
316 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A
SECONDARY LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO DEVELOP IN THE OHIO
VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
STRATOCUMULUS HAS BEEN STUBBORN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT APPEARS THEY
WILL GRADUALLY ERODE FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. MAY HANG ON
ALONG THE MD/PA BORDER INTO THE NIGHT. EVEN THOUGH PRECIP ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY HAS SHOWN A
WEAKENING TREND WHILE MOVING INTO A DRIER AIRMASS...THOUGHT IT WAS
WORTHWHILE TO AT LEAST MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE MOST FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...A BLANKET OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM PLUMMETING TO THE DEW POINTS...BUT LOWS WILL STILL DIP BELOW
FREEZING IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...LEADING TO TRANQUIL WEATHER AND LESS GUSTY WINDS. PERHAPS
SOME PASSING CLOUDS BUT EVEN OVERNIGHT WITH THE MORE SUPPRESSED
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...MOST OF THE CWA MAY ONLY SEE CIRRUS. NOT
MUCH TEMPERATURE ADVECTION...HIGHS PERHAPS A TICK WARMER BUT STILL
IN THE 40S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW FREEZING.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SEASONABLY CHILLY CONDITIONS DURING THIS
TIME.

A COUPLE SHORTWAVES...ONE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE JET AND ONE
IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM OF THE JET WILL PASS THROUGH OUR REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THESE SYSTEMS WILL NOT PHASE SO THE
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AS WELL.
THEREFORE...MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY DURING THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY BRUSH PORTIONS OF THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR SNOW IF PRECIPITATION OCCURS...BUT
LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE
REMAINING TO THE SOUTH.

MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS...BUT
LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SUNDAY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST AND FILL BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE PATTERN WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF A
SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ON TO NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL INCREASE ON
SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING EARLY HALF OF PERIOD. MARGINAL 1000-500 MB
THICKNESS VALUES AND AIR TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING MAY SUPPORT
SNOW...OR WINTRY MIX. MORE MOISTURE WILL FOLLOW AT MID WEEK AHEAD OF
LOW APPROACHING FROM THE MID WEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY HIGH
ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BKN CIGS NEAR 4KFT SHOULD ERODE BY LATE AFTERNOON BUT GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING MID LEVEL CIGS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE NW BUT BECOME LESS
GUSTY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN MAY IMPACT
KCHO. SUBVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE TERMINALS SUNDAY...BUT LOW
PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION AND SUBVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTS THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. EXTENDED BOTH
SEGMENTS OF THE SCA INTO THIS EVENING AS NOT SURE THE GUST WILL
DECREASE TOO QUICKLY. WINDS INCREASE AGAIN FOR THE DAYTIME OF
FRIDAY...WITH A SCA GOING INTO EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE WATERS. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ531>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...BJL/ADS
LONG TERM...BJL/CEM
AVIATION...BJL/ADS
MARINE...BJL/ADS








000
FXUS61 KRNK 182005
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
305 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN OVERALL DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP ALONG
THE GULF COAST STATES FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST OVER
THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION SATURDAY MORNING...CHANGING TO RAIN
OVER THE PIEDMONT IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EST THURSDAY...

WAVE ALOFT PASSES EAST OVERNIGHT LEAVING WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE
AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW NOSES BACK IN LATE. THIS WILL ALSO
INTRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF WEAK COLD ADVECTION ALLOWING UPSLOPE
CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP IN THE WEST...PERHAPS REACHING THE BLUE RIDGE
BY DAYBREAK. WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE...WESTERN GREENBRIER COULD EDGE
OUT A DUSTING TO A HALF OF AN INCH OF SNOW ABOVE 3000 FT. OTHER
SOUTHEASTERN WV COUNTIES SHOULD ONLY SEE FLURRIES OVERNIGHT.
COUNTIES ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE TO THE PIEDMONT WILL SEE SLOW
CLEARING OF THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON KEPT TEMPERATURES COOL AND THIS SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO COOLER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. WITH AFTERNOON DEW
POINTS MAINTAINING IN THE L/M 20S...ANY SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING WITH
LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RADIATE DOWN COLDER THAN
FORECASTED. CURRENT THINKING IS TO HAVE SOME CLOUDS AND/OR MIXING
OVERNIGHT TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN BETWEEN GFS AND NAM MOS.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE ON THE DRY SIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REMAINS THE
MAIN FEATURE IN OUR WEATHER PATTERN. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES...TO AROUND 50
OVER THE SOUTHSIDE AND THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EST THURSDAY...

MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING QUITE A BIT WEAKER WITH THE SHORT WAVE
COMING OUT OF ARIZONA AND REACHING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON
SATURDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND VORTICITY ADVECTION COME THROUGH ON
SATURDAY AND WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE GUIDANCE IS WITH THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE. 12Z GUIDANCE NOW KEEPS BULK OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY THE 12Z NAM. WILL FOLLOW THIS
TREND AND LOWER PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN ALL BUT THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. WILL ALSO CUT BACK ON
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE EAST AND WILL BE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY.
THE HIGH CONTINUES SLOW PROGRESS TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND BY
LATE SUNDAY THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OFFSHORE. THIS WILL BEGIN TO
BRING SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS AROUND TO THE SOUTH LATE IN THE
DAY. SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE SHORT WAVE ON SATURDAY WILL BE AN
INVERTED TROF OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. EXPECT CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY COOLER
THAN GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST THURSDAY...

A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE
WITH ENOUGH MODEL DIFFERENCES TO MAKE THE DETAILS OF THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER A GOOD CHALLENGE. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST SUNDAY NIGHT...PUSH MOISTURE
NORTHWARD AND INTRODUCING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN...AND POTENTIALLY
FREEZING PRECIPITATION TO THE MOUNTAINS. UTILIZED THE TOPDOWN
APPROACH LEANING TOWARDS GFS FOR TEMPERATURE PROFILES. HELD LOW
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW MOS WITH CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION. IN GENERAL...SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE PIEDMONT.

FOR MONDAY...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WITH AXIS OF
MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION MOVING NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE
WEST. HOW MUCH THE LOW CENTER DEEPENS...ITS ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION AND PTYPE REMAINS PROBLEMATIC FOR OUR REGION. EACH
MODEL HAS A DIFFERENT TAKE ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WARM NOSE OVER
OUR REGION. WILL MAINTAIN THE RAIN VERSUS FREEZING RAIN FORECAST
DURING MUCH OF MONDAY MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET ACROSS THE VIRGINIA
HIGHLANDS AND SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY. FELT THAT THERE WAS
ENOUGH SUPPORT TO RAISE POPS FROM SLIGHT INTO THE CHANCE LEVEL
MONDAY. KEPT HIGHS MONDAY COOLER THAN GUIDANCE WITH READINGS FROM
THE MID 30S IN THE WEST TO THE MID 40S IN THE EAST.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST WITH
TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A
DEEP LONGITUDINAL TROUGH DEVELOPS SOUTH TO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
OUR REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION. USING
SUPERBLEND FOR LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT PRODUCED READINGS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
MILDER FOR HIGHS TUESDAY FROM THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BOTH GFS AND ECWMF DEEPEN THE
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH AND NEGATIVELY TILT THE FEATURE SO
THAT THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST...COINCIDENT TO THE POSITION OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
OCCLUDED FRONT...WITH THE TRIPLE POINT PASSING SOMEWHERE NEAR OR
JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION. AT THIS TIME...SPC DOES NOT HAVE ANY
THUNDERSTORMS IN ITS DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. IT LOOKS
LIKE...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR OUR REGION TO HAVE ACTIVE
WEATHER LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH PLENTY OF
SHOWERS...PERHAPS VERY GUSTY WINDS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

COLD AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...ALLOWING FOR SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. IF ENOUGH COLD
AIR ARRIVES QUICKLY...THERE COULD BE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE WEST AS THE LOW CENTER MARCHES NORTHEAST PUSHES A COLD
FRONT TO THE COAST. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT A COOLING TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. UPPER FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST AS TROF CURVES OUT
IN THE CENTRAL US WITH SFC INFLECTION OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1250 PM EST THURSDAY...

MOST OF THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MAINLY INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS PASSING
ACROSS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE THOSE AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND
WEST OF A KBLF-KLWB LINE WHERE RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
MAKE FOR LOWER STRATO-CU CIGS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THE FRI NIGHT-SAT SYSTEM NOW HAS TRENDED WEAKER BUT WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED AS IT WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF SUB VFR
WINTRY WEATHER ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST SAT.

AVIATION INTERESTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION AS LATER
FORECASTS BECOME AVAILABLE. THIS WILL LIKELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON AIR
TRAVEL OVER THE WEEKEND...FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
CAROLINAS NORTH TO THE MID ATLANTIC.

ON THE HEELS OF THIS FRIDAY/SATURDAY SYSTEM WILL BE ANOTHER
SYSTEM TO POTENTIALLY IMPACT MAINLY THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO HEAD NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION ON ITS WESTERN FLANKS ENTERING THE REGION. AT THIS
POINT A WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...RCS
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...JH/RCS



000
FXUS61 KRNK 182005
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
305 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN OVERALL DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP ALONG
THE GULF COAST STATES FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST OVER
THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION SATURDAY MORNING...CHANGING TO RAIN
OVER THE PIEDMONT IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EST THURSDAY...

WAVE ALOFT PASSES EAST OVERNIGHT LEAVING WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE
AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW NOSES BACK IN LATE. THIS WILL ALSO
INTRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF WEAK COLD ADVECTION ALLOWING UPSLOPE
CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP IN THE WEST...PERHAPS REACHING THE BLUE RIDGE
BY DAYBREAK. WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE...WESTERN GREENBRIER COULD EDGE
OUT A DUSTING TO A HALF OF AN INCH OF SNOW ABOVE 3000 FT. OTHER
SOUTHEASTERN WV COUNTIES SHOULD ONLY SEE FLURRIES OVERNIGHT.
COUNTIES ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE TO THE PIEDMONT WILL SEE SLOW
CLEARING OF THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON KEPT TEMPERATURES COOL AND THIS SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO COOLER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. WITH AFTERNOON DEW
POINTS MAINTAINING IN THE L/M 20S...ANY SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING WITH
LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RADIATE DOWN COLDER THAN
FORECASTED. CURRENT THINKING IS TO HAVE SOME CLOUDS AND/OR MIXING
OVERNIGHT TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN BETWEEN GFS AND NAM MOS.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE ON THE DRY SIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REMAINS THE
MAIN FEATURE IN OUR WEATHER PATTERN. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES...TO AROUND 50
OVER THE SOUTHSIDE AND THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EST THURSDAY...

MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING QUITE A BIT WEAKER WITH THE SHORT WAVE
COMING OUT OF ARIZONA AND REACHING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON
SATURDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND VORTICITY ADVECTION COME THROUGH ON
SATURDAY AND WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE GUIDANCE IS WITH THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE. 12Z GUIDANCE NOW KEEPS BULK OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY THE 12Z NAM. WILL FOLLOW THIS
TREND AND LOWER PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN ALL BUT THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. WILL ALSO CUT BACK ON
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE EAST AND WILL BE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY.
THE HIGH CONTINUES SLOW PROGRESS TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND BY
LATE SUNDAY THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OFFSHORE. THIS WILL BEGIN TO
BRING SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS AROUND TO THE SOUTH LATE IN THE
DAY. SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE SHORT WAVE ON SATURDAY WILL BE AN
INVERTED TROF OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. EXPECT CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY COOLER
THAN GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST THURSDAY...

A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE
WITH ENOUGH MODEL DIFFERENCES TO MAKE THE DETAILS OF THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER A GOOD CHALLENGE. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST SUNDAY NIGHT...PUSH MOISTURE
NORTHWARD AND INTRODUCING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN...AND POTENTIALLY
FREEZING PRECIPITATION TO THE MOUNTAINS. UTILIZED THE TOPDOWN
APPROACH LEANING TOWARDS GFS FOR TEMPERATURE PROFILES. HELD LOW
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW MOS WITH CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION. IN GENERAL...SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE PIEDMONT.

FOR MONDAY...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WITH AXIS OF
MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION MOVING NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE
WEST. HOW MUCH THE LOW CENTER DEEPENS...ITS ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION AND PTYPE REMAINS PROBLEMATIC FOR OUR REGION. EACH
MODEL HAS A DIFFERENT TAKE ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WARM NOSE OVER
OUR REGION. WILL MAINTAIN THE RAIN VERSUS FREEZING RAIN FORECAST
DURING MUCH OF MONDAY MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET ACROSS THE VIRGINIA
HIGHLANDS AND SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY. FELT THAT THERE WAS
ENOUGH SUPPORT TO RAISE POPS FROM SLIGHT INTO THE CHANCE LEVEL
MONDAY. KEPT HIGHS MONDAY COOLER THAN GUIDANCE WITH READINGS FROM
THE MID 30S IN THE WEST TO THE MID 40S IN THE EAST.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST WITH
TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A
DEEP LONGITUDINAL TROUGH DEVELOPS SOUTH TO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
OUR REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION. USING
SUPERBLEND FOR LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT PRODUCED READINGS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
MILDER FOR HIGHS TUESDAY FROM THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BOTH GFS AND ECWMF DEEPEN THE
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH AND NEGATIVELY TILT THE FEATURE SO
THAT THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST...COINCIDENT TO THE POSITION OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
OCCLUDED FRONT...WITH THE TRIPLE POINT PASSING SOMEWHERE NEAR OR
JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION. AT THIS TIME...SPC DOES NOT HAVE ANY
THUNDERSTORMS IN ITS DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. IT LOOKS
LIKE...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR OUR REGION TO HAVE ACTIVE
WEATHER LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH PLENTY OF
SHOWERS...PERHAPS VERY GUSTY WINDS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

COLD AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...ALLOWING FOR SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. IF ENOUGH COLD
AIR ARRIVES QUICKLY...THERE COULD BE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE WEST AS THE LOW CENTER MARCHES NORTHEAST PUSHES A COLD
FRONT TO THE COAST. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT A COOLING TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. UPPER FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST AS TROF CURVES OUT
IN THE CENTRAL US WITH SFC INFLECTION OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1250 PM EST THURSDAY...

MOST OF THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MAINLY INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS PASSING
ACROSS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE THOSE AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND
WEST OF A KBLF-KLWB LINE WHERE RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
MAKE FOR LOWER STRATO-CU CIGS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THE FRI NIGHT-SAT SYSTEM NOW HAS TRENDED WEAKER BUT WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED AS IT WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF SUB VFR
WINTRY WEATHER ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST SAT.

AVIATION INTERESTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION AS LATER
FORECASTS BECOME AVAILABLE. THIS WILL LIKELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON AIR
TRAVEL OVER THE WEEKEND...FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
CAROLINAS NORTH TO THE MID ATLANTIC.

ON THE HEELS OF THIS FRIDAY/SATURDAY SYSTEM WILL BE ANOTHER
SYSTEM TO POTENTIALLY IMPACT MAINLY THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO HEAD NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION ON ITS WESTERN FLANKS ENTERING THE REGION. AT THIS
POINT A WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...RCS
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...JH/RCS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 181805
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
105 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
FRIDAY. ONE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF COAST
STATES EAST NORTHEAST TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY MORNING
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATE THIS MORNG...STRONG LO PRES WAS OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WHILE BROAD HI PRES EXTENDED FM THE NRN PLAINS SE TWD
THE MID ATLC STATES. THE HI WILL SPREAD ESE INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTN...ALLOWING FOR DRY CONDITIONS UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKY. HI TEMPS WILL ONLY RANGE THRU THE 40S DUE TO WEAK CAA OVR
THE AREA.

DRY WX CONTINUES TNGT...WITH A MID-LEVEL S/W TROF PASSING N OF
THE AREA. THE MID ATLC REMAINS INFLUENCED BY SFC HI PRES CENTERED
OVR THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY. EXPECT LIGHT NW WINDS...A PARTLY CLOUDY
SKY...AND LO TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR 20S TO LWR 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HI PRES SLIDES E THRU THE OH VALLEY AND NE STATES FRI INTO FRI
NIGHT WITH DRY CONDS OVR THE MID ATLANTIC. HI TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPR 40S FRI WITH LO TEMPS FRI NIGHT IN THE UPR 20 TO LWR
30S...AND INCREASING CLOUDS LATE. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SFC LO
PRES DEVELOPING OVR THE GOM. ALL 00Z AND 06Z GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED
THE NRN ADVANCEMENT OF PCPN SAT FARTHER S AND DELAYED THE
TIMING...SO ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. MODEL THICKNESSES SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR SLEET TO MIX IN OVR THE PIEDMONT AT THE
ONSET...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO PLAIN RAIN. POPS SAT AFTN RANGE FM
10-20% FAR N...TO 30-40% AROUND RIC...TO 60-70% FAR S. PCPN
(MAINLY RAIN BUT SNOW PSBLY MIXED IN) WILL END QUICKLY SAT NIGHT
WITH THE UPR-LEVEL FLOW BEING FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND THE SFC LO
WEAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NW SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL TO AROUND 30 NW TO THE
UPPER 30S SE. HOWEVER...ANY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOULD END PRIOR TO
ANY SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AOB 32F. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD PREVAIL SUNDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER LOW FORMS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AND TRACKS NE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME
TEMPERATURES APPEAR WARM ENOUGH FOR ONLY RAIN. HOWEVER...THERE
COULD BE A BRIEF MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT
SUNDAY NIGHT. MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH
MILDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH EXPECT TO
SEE SOME MID LEVEL CIGS FROM 10-15 K FT THIS EVENING INTO EARLY
FRI MORNING PER LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.
WINDS GENLY WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KT...EXCEPT FOR SOME 10-15 KT NW
WINDS THROUGH 22Z THIS AFTN AT KSBY.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES FRIDAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AVERAGING
10 KT OR LESS AND CLEARING SKIES. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING WELL
TO OUR SOUTH SAT/SAT NIGHT MAY BRING A PERIOD OF BKN/OVC CONDITIONS
BUT CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 4-5 K FT OR HIGHER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MON BRINGING
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE ALLOWED REMAINING SCA TO EXPIRE FOR THE BAY AS WINDS HAVE NOW
DROPPED OFF TO 10-15 KT. IN COASTAL WATERS SEAS ARE HIGHEST IN NC
WATERS DUE TO WINDS FROM A DIRECTION MORE DUE NORTH AS OPPOSED TO
NW. SEAS BRIEFLY TOUCHED 5 FT AT BUOY 44100 ALTHOUGH HAVE DROPPED
OFF OVER THE PAST HR SO WILL NOT RAISE ANY HEADLINES AND JUST GO
WITH "4 FT SEAS" THROUGH THE AFTN.

ANOTHER WEAKER NRLY SURGE SEEN TONIGHT AS A SCNDRY TROF CROSSES THE
RGN...BUT WILL CAP WINDS AT 15 KTS FOR NOW. OTW...N-NE FLOW
CONTINUES BLO SCA LVLS INTO THE WEEKEND.

LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO TRACK ENE TO IMMEDIATELY OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW TRACKS
NE OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO
SPECULATE ON THE POTENTIAL OF SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS/TMG
NEAR TERM...MAS/TMG
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...LKB/MPR






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 181805
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
105 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
FRIDAY. ONE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF COAST
STATES EAST NORTHEAST TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY MORNING
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATE THIS MORNG...STRONG LO PRES WAS OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WHILE BROAD HI PRES EXTENDED FM THE NRN PLAINS SE TWD
THE MID ATLC STATES. THE HI WILL SPREAD ESE INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTN...ALLOWING FOR DRY CONDITIONS UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKY. HI TEMPS WILL ONLY RANGE THRU THE 40S DUE TO WEAK CAA OVR
THE AREA.

DRY WX CONTINUES TNGT...WITH A MID-LEVEL S/W TROF PASSING N OF
THE AREA. THE MID ATLC REMAINS INFLUENCED BY SFC HI PRES CENTERED
OVR THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY. EXPECT LIGHT NW WINDS...A PARTLY CLOUDY
SKY...AND LO TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR 20S TO LWR 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HI PRES SLIDES E THRU THE OH VALLEY AND NE STATES FRI INTO FRI
NIGHT WITH DRY CONDS OVR THE MID ATLANTIC. HI TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPR 40S FRI WITH LO TEMPS FRI NIGHT IN THE UPR 20 TO LWR
30S...AND INCREASING CLOUDS LATE. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SFC LO
PRES DEVELOPING OVR THE GOM. ALL 00Z AND 06Z GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED
THE NRN ADVANCEMENT OF PCPN SAT FARTHER S AND DELAYED THE
TIMING...SO ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. MODEL THICKNESSES SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR SLEET TO MIX IN OVR THE PIEDMONT AT THE
ONSET...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO PLAIN RAIN. POPS SAT AFTN RANGE FM
10-20% FAR N...TO 30-40% AROUND RIC...TO 60-70% FAR S. PCPN
(MAINLY RAIN BUT SNOW PSBLY MIXED IN) WILL END QUICKLY SAT NIGHT
WITH THE UPR-LEVEL FLOW BEING FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND THE SFC LO
WEAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NW SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL TO AROUND 30 NW TO THE
UPPER 30S SE. HOWEVER...ANY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOULD END PRIOR TO
ANY SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AOB 32F. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD PREVAIL SUNDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER LOW FORMS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AND TRACKS NE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME
TEMPERATURES APPEAR WARM ENOUGH FOR ONLY RAIN. HOWEVER...THERE
COULD BE A BRIEF MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT
SUNDAY NIGHT. MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH
MILDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH EXPECT TO
SEE SOME MID LEVEL CIGS FROM 10-15 K FT THIS EVENING INTO EARLY
FRI MORNING PER LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.
WINDS GENLY WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KT...EXCEPT FOR SOME 10-15 KT NW
WINDS THROUGH 22Z THIS AFTN AT KSBY.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES FRIDAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AVERAGING
10 KT OR LESS AND CLEARING SKIES. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING WELL
TO OUR SOUTH SAT/SAT NIGHT MAY BRING A PERIOD OF BKN/OVC CONDITIONS
BUT CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 4-5 K FT OR HIGHER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MON BRINGING
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE ALLOWED REMAINING SCA TO EXPIRE FOR THE BAY AS WINDS HAVE NOW
DROPPED OFF TO 10-15 KT. IN COASTAL WATERS SEAS ARE HIGHEST IN NC
WATERS DUE TO WINDS FROM A DIRECTION MORE DUE NORTH AS OPPOSED TO
NW. SEAS BRIEFLY TOUCHED 5 FT AT BUOY 44100 ALTHOUGH HAVE DROPPED
OFF OVER THE PAST HR SO WILL NOT RAISE ANY HEADLINES AND JUST GO
WITH "4 FT SEAS" THROUGH THE AFTN.

ANOTHER WEAKER NRLY SURGE SEEN TONIGHT AS A SCNDRY TROF CROSSES THE
RGN...BUT WILL CAP WINDS AT 15 KTS FOR NOW. OTW...N-NE FLOW
CONTINUES BLO SCA LVLS INTO THE WEEKEND.

LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO TRACK ENE TO IMMEDIATELY OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW TRACKS
NE OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO
SPECULATE ON THE POTENTIAL OF SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS/TMG
NEAR TERM...MAS/TMG
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...LKB/MPR







000
FXUS61 KRNK 181759
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1259 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN OVERALL DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.
HOWEVER PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF
MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES
LATER FRIDAY AND MOVE EAST...PERHAPS BRINGING A PERIOD OF LIGHT
WINTRY PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 PM EST THURSDAY...

MOUNTAIN WAVE MID DECK THICK ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SHORT WAVE COMING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS WILL KICK THIS MOUNTAIN WAVE
ACTION EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. COOLED TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS DUE TO THESE
CLOUDS. MAINTAINED SPRINKLES FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
TONIGHT AS SHORT WAVE SLIDE NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.


AS OF 215 AM EST THURSDAY...

OVERALL DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IN PLACE UNDER A FAST/CONFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT. HOWEVER THE DEGREE OF CLOUDS AND WHETHER OR NOT ANY
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES WILL OCCUR REMAINS IN QUESTION GIVEN THE APPROACH
OF DECENT MID LEVEL ENERGY FROM THE WEST TODAY OVERTOP VERY DRY AIR IN
PLACE. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP...WITH THIS
WAVE NOW BACK OVER THE MIDWEST...MAKING IT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BUT DO
HAVE QUITE A BIT OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS PER RH SECTIONS. LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW EXTENSIVE DRY AIR BENEATH THE MID DECK SO
DOUBTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LIGHT PRECIP EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE FAR
WESTERN SLOPES. THUS TRIMMED BACK THE GOING COVERAGE OF SPRINKLES WITH
ONLY A BRIEF MENTION FAR WEST THIS AFTERNOON. OTRW LOOKING AT INTERVALS
OF SUN EARLY...OUTSIDE LINGERING UPSLOPE LOW CLOUDS WESTERN SLOPES...
WITH A PERIOD OF MORE MID DECK CLOUDS INTO THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
BRIEF FLUX OF FAINT WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE MAY PUSH
TEMPS OVER THE SE TO AROUND 50...WHILE MOST OTHER LOCATIONS
STRUGGLE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ESPCLY IF CLOUDS ARE FASTER
TO ARRIVE WHICH COULD MEAN MORE 30S FOR HIGHS MOUNTAINS.

WAVE ALOFT PASSES EAST OVERNIGHT LEAVING WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE
AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW NOSES BACK IN LATE. THIS WILL ALSO
INTRO ANOTHER ROUND OF WEAK COLD ADVECTION ALLOWING UPSLOPE CLOUDS TO
REDEVELOP FARTHER EAST...PERHAPS REACHING THE BLUE RIDGE BY DAYBREAK.
OTRW EXPECTING SLOW CLEARING OF THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH INFILTRATION OF LOW DECK ACROSS THE FAR WEST LATE.
WENT CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MET MOS AGAIN TONIGHT FOR TEMPS PER
LINGERING GRADIENT GIVEN THE PARENT HIGH TO THE NW AND SOME CLOUDS
PERSISTING AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EST THURSDAY...

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE ON THE DRY SIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REMAINS THE MAIN
FEATURE IN OUR WEATHER PATTERN. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES...TO AROUND 50
OVER THE SOUTHSIDE AND THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT. EXPECT TO SEE
HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING DURING THE EVENING...WITH WINDS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY NORTHEASTERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD AGAINST THE
EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS. COOL AIR FLOWING IN FROM THE NORTH
AND RADIATIONAL COOLING DESPITE THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT
LOWS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.

18/00Z FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND WEAKER AND SLOWER WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AND ITS
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST FRIDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR PRECIPITATION TO ENTER THE NORTH
CAROLINA HIGHLANDS SHORTLY BEFORE DAWN ON SATURDAY. FOR THIS
MORNING`S FORECAST...STILL PRETTY CONFIDENT THAT MOST AREAS WILL SEE
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION DESPITE MODELS TRENDING TOWARD A DRIER
SYSTEM...SO WILL MAINTAIN HIGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HOWEVER...HAVE
CUT DOWN ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...WITH MOST LOCATIONS BELOW 0.25
INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION.

PRECIPITATION TYPE IS ALSO A CHALLENGE. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL START
THE NIGHT OUT DRY...WITH THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE IN THE LOWEST FEW
THOUSAND FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE HOVERING WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
EITHER SIDE OF THE FREEZING MARK...DEPENDING ON LOCATION. IF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE AREA...IT WILL CAUSE THE ATMOSPHERE TO
MOISTEN AND THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE TO COOL...MAKING IT MORE LIKELY
TO START AS SLEET OR SNOW. LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY MANAGE TO START
AS RAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SLIGHTLY WARMER EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA...BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SLEET/SNOW TOWARD DAWN. ULTIMATELY
WENT ON THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE...TRENDING MORE TOWARDS FROZEN
PRECIPITATION TO START THE EVENT. BEST BET FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
WILL BE ON THE HIGHER RIDGES...WITH UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE AND OTHER HIGHER RIDGELINES...AND LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.

PRECIPITATION WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND THE EARLY HALF
OF SATURDAY NIGHT. UNDERCUT MODEL GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES FOR
FORECAST HIGHS CONSIDERING PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IN
EAST NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. MOST PRECIPITATION WILL BE EAST OF THE
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY...WITH YET ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
BUILDING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST SUNDAY NIGHT...RADIATING MOISTURE
NORTHWARD AND INTRODUCING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN...AND POTENTIALLY
FREEZING PRECIPITATION TO THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST THURSDAY...

THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN BASED UPON THE VARIOUS MODELS. HOWEVER...THESE SAME
MODELS OFFER ENOUGH DIFFERENCES TO MAKE THE DETAILS OF THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER ENOUGH OF CHALLENGE THAT CONFIDENCE IN THE SPECIFICS IS NOT
HIGH.

BY MONDAY...LATEST MODELS SHOW LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST WITH ANOTHER AXIS OF PRECIP MOVING NORTH ASSOCIATED
WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING LONGWAVE
TROUGH TO THE WEST. DEPENDING UPON HOW MUCH OR LITTLE THIS SYSTEM
DEEPENS WILL CORRELATE TO HOW LONG ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
REMAINS OVER OUR REGION. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE AREA IS
ALSO A QUESTION. EACH MODEL HAS A DIFFERENT TAKE ON THE MAGNITUDE
OF THE WARM NOSE OVER OUR REGION. THE ONLY CONSISTENT ELEMENT IS
THE EXISTENCE OF A WARM NOSE. GIVEN THIS...WILL OFFER RAIN VERSUS
FREEZING RAIN FORECAST DURING MUCH OF THE MONDAY PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. HOWEVER DESPITE QUITE A BIT OF WARMING ALOFT OFF THE
LATEST 00Z EC MODEL...THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET ACROSS THE VIRGINIA HIGHLANDS AND
SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY SECTIONS ESPCLY MONDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THOUGH WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE...MAINLY
RANGING IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW WHICH MAY HAVE TO BE
RAMPED UP LATER TODAY.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OF BRINGING A
CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
FROM THAT POINT...A DEEP LONGITUDINAL TROUGH DEVELOPS SOUTH TO THE
GULF OF MEXICO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASING MOISTURE
FETCH. BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND
ECWMF CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH AND
NEGATIVELY TILT THE FEATURE SO THAT THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO OFF
THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS...COINCIDENT TO THE POSITION OF THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT....WITH THE TRIPLE POINT PASSING
SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION. THIS PAINTS A PICTURE OF
VERY ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH PLENTY OF SHOWERS...VERY GUSTY...IF NOT DAMAGING...
WINDS...AND IF THE TRIPLE POINT PROGNOSTIC IS ACCURATE...SEVERE
WEATHER...OR AT LEAST A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER...OVER OR VERY
CLOSE TO OUR REGION OF THE COUNTRY. HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO STILL IS
DAY 6 INTO DAY 7 OF THE FORECAST...AND THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME FOR
CHANGES IN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS TO TREND TOWARD A LESS AGGRESSIVE
SYSTEM. GIVEN THIS...WILL OFFER A FORECAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY THAT OFFERS INCREASING CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN
WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ON TUESDAY...WITH MODERATE RAIN
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.
TIMING OF THE PUSH OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION AS WELL AS THE
MAGNITUDE OF THAT COLDER AIR VARIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECWMF.
HOWEVER...THE FORECAST WILL ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR COLD
ENOUGH AIR TO REACH WESTERN...HIGHER PARTS OF THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL TREND MILDER
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY MAY BE A BIT MILDER IN THE
EAST...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE WEST AS COMPARED TO TUESDAY. ALL
DAYS OF THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1250 PM EST THURSDAY...

MOST OF THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH MAINLY INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS PASSING
ACROSS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE THOSE AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND
WEST OF A KBLF-KLWB LINE WHERE RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
MAKE FOR LOWER STRATO-CU CIGS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THE FRI NIGHT-SAT SYSTEM NOW HAS TRENDED WEAKER BUT WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED AS IT WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF SUB VFR
WINTRY WEATHER ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST SAT.

AVIATION INTERESTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION AS LATER
FORECASTS BECOME AVAILABLE. THIS WILL LIKELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON AIR
TRAVEL OVER THE WEEKEND...FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
CAROLINAS NORTH TO THE MID ATLANTIC.

ON THE HEELS OF THIS FRIDAY/SATURDAY SYSTEM WILL BE ANOTHER SYSTEM
TO POTENTIALLY IMPACT MAINLY THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE REGION
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
HEAD NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH SCATTERED PRECIPITATION ON
ITS WESTERN FLANKS ENTERING THE REGION. AT THIS POINT A WINTRY MIX
IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/RCS
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...DS/JH
AVIATION...JH/RCS



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 181508
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1008 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
FRIDAY. ONE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF COAST
STATES EAST NORTHEAST TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY MORNING
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATE THIS MORNG...STRONG LO PRES WAS OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WHILE BROAD HI PRES EXTENDED FM THE NRN PLAINS SE TWD
THE MID ATLC STATES. THE HI WILL SPREAD ESE INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTN...ALLOWING FOR DRY CONDITIONS UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKY. HI TEMPS WILL ONLY RANGE THRU THE 40S DUE TO WEAK CAA OVR
THE AREA.

DRY WX CONTINUES TNGT...WITH A MID-LEVEL S/W TROF PASSING N OF
THE AREA. THE MID ATLC REMAINS INFLUENCED BY SFC HI PRES CENTERED
OVR THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY. EXPECT LIGHT NW WINDS...A PARTLY CLOUDY
SKY...AND LO TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR 20S TO LWR 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HI PRES SLIDES E THRU THE OH VALLEY AND NE STATES FRI INTO FRI
NIGHT WITH DRY CONDS OVR THE MID ATLANTIC. HI TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPR 40S FRI WITH LO TEMPS FRI NIGHT IN THE UPR 20 TO LWR
30S...AND INCREASING CLOUDS LATE. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SFC LO
PRES DEVELOPING OVR THE GOM. ALL 00Z AND 06Z GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED
THE NRN ADVANCEMENT OF PCPN SAT FARTHER S AND DELAYED THE
TIMING...SO ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. MODEL THICKNESSES SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR SLEET TO MIX IN OVR THE PIEDMONT AT THE
ONSET...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO PLAIN RAIN. POPS SAT AFTN RANGE FM
10-20% FAR N...TO 30-40% AROUND RIC...TO 60-70% FAR S. PCPN
(MAINLY RAIN BUT SNOW PSBLY MIXED IN) WILL END QUICKLY SAT NIGHT
WITH THE UPR-LEVEL FLOW BEING FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND THE SFC LO
WEAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NW SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL TO AROUND 30 NW TO THE
UPPER 30S SE. HOWEVER...ANY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOULD END PRIOR TO
ANY SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AOB 32F. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD PREVAIL SUNDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER LOW FORMS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AND TRACKS NE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME
TEMPERATURES APPEAR WARM ENOUGH FOR ONLY RAIN. HOWEVER...THERE
COULD BE A BRIEF MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT
SUNDAY NIGHT. MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH
MILDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITION THROUGH THE FCST PRD WITH ONLY BKN CIRRUS CLOUDS
XPCTD. NRTH WNDS AOB 10 KTS AS TROF MOVES EAST ACROSS THE RGN.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES FRIDAY. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED SCA HEADLINES THROUGH 1 PM FOR THE BAY...STILL SEEING
SEVERAL SITES W/ GUSTS TO 20 KT+ AND SHOULD THROUGH AT LEAST
ANOTHER 2 HRS BEFORE GRADIENT RELAXES AND WINDS DIMINISH. ALLOWED SCA TO
EXPIRE FOR COASTAL WATERS ALTHOUGH ADJUSTED SEAS UP A BIT IN
SOUTHERN WATERS AS WINDS ARE MORE N THAN NW AND SEAS HAVE RISEN TO
~ 4FT EVEN AT THE NEAR-SHORE.

ANTHR WEAKER NRLY SURGE SEEN TONIGHT AS A SCNDRY TROF CROSSES THE
RGN...BUT WILL CAP WINDS AT 15 KTS FOR NOW. OTW...N-NE FLOW
CONTINUES BLO SCA LVLS INTO THE WEEKEND.

LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO TRACK ENE TO IMMEDIATELY OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW TRACKS
NE OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO
SPECULATE ON THE POTENTIAL OF SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS/TMG
NEAR TERM...MAS/TMG
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...LKB/MPR







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 181457
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
957 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
FRIDAY. ONE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF COAST
STATES EAST NORTHEAST TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY MORNING
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATE THIS MORNG...STRONG LO PRES WAS OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WHILE BROAD HI PRES EXTENDED FM THE NRN PLAINS SE TWD
THE MID ATLC STATES. THE HI WILL SPREAD ESE INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTN...ALLOWING FOR DRY CONDITIONS UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKY. HI TEMPS WILL ONLY RANGE THRU THE 40S DUE TO WEAK CAA OVR
THE AREA.

DRY WX CONTINUES TNGT...WITH A MID-LEVEL S/W TROF PASSING N OF
THE AREA. THE MID ATLC REMAINS INFLUENCED BY SFC HI PRES CENTERED
OVR THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY. EXPECT LIGHT NW WINDS...A PARTLY CLOUDY
SKY...AND LO TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR 20S TO LWR 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HI PRES SLIDES E THRU THE OH VALLEY AND NE STATES FRI INTO FRI
NIGHT WITH DRY CONDS OVR THE MID ATLANTIC. HI TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPR 40S FRI WITH LO TEMPS FRI NIGHT IN THE UPR 20 TO LWR
30S...AND INCREASING CLOUDS LATE. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SFC LO
PRES DEVELOPING OVR THE GOM. ALL 00Z AND 06Z GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED
THE NRN ADVANCEMENT OF PCPN SAT FARTHER S AND DELAYED THE
TIMING...SO ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. MODEL THICKNESSES SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR SLEET TO MIX IN OVR THE PIEDMONT AT THE
ONSET...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO PLAIN RAIN. POPS SAT AFTN RANGE FM
10-20% FAR N...TO 30-40% AROUND RIC...TO 60-70% FAR S. PCPN
(MAINLY RAIN BUT SNOW PSBLY MIXED IN) WILL END QUICKLY SAT NIGHT
WITH THE UPR-LEVEL FLOW BEING FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND THE SFC LO
WEAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NW SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL TO AROUND 30 NW TO THE
UPPER 30S SE. HOWEVER...ANY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOULD END PRIOR TO
ANY SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AOB 32F. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD PREVAIL SUNDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER LOW FORMS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AND TRACKS NE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME
TEMPERATURES APPEAR WARM ENOUGH FOR ONLY RAIN. HOWEVER...THERE
COULD BE A BRIEF MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT
SUNDAY NIGHT. MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH
MILDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITION THROUGH THE FCST PRD WITH ONLY BKN CIRRUS CLOUDS
XPCTD. NRTH WNDS AOB 10 KTS AS TROF MOVES EAST ACROSS THE RGN.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES FRIDAY. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL KEEP SCA GOING THRU THE LATE MORNING HRS AS FIRST CAA SURGE
WORKS IT WAY THROUGH THE WATERS. ANTHR WEAKER NRLY SURGE SEEN
TONIGHT AS A SCNDRY TROF CROSSES THE RGN...BUT WILL CAP WINDS AT
15 KTS FOR NOW. OTW...N-NE FLOW CONTINUES BLO SCA LVLS INTO THE
WEEKEND.

LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO TRACK ENE TO IMMEDIATELY OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW TRACKS
NE OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO
SPECULATE ON THE POTENTIAL OF SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS/TMG
NEAR TERM...MAS/TMG
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR






000
FXUS61 KLWX 181449
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
949 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR A WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT WILL CROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. A SECONDARY LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UP FROM THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOOKS TO DEVELOP IN THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WILL EXTEND SE
TOWARD THE AREA TODAY...WHILE STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE WITH THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
STRATOCUMULUS EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA AND HAS
ACTUALLY ADVANCE A BIT BACK TO THE SE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
STILL THINK THIS LAYER CAN AT LEAST BECOME MORE SCATTERED WITH
DIURNAL MIXING...BUT MAY BE A SLOW PROCESS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. HI RES
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW PRECIP FIZZLING AS IT ENCOUNTERS DRIER AIR
MASS/HIGH PRESSURE...AND THE LAST COUPLE HOURS OF RADAR DATA
SUPPORT THE HYPOTHESIS. THERE IS A BETTER LATCHING ONTO THE
NORTHERN AREA SURVIVING ACROSS OHIO...SO WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS
AS TO WHETHER POPS MAY NEEDED TO BE ADDED LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE JUST AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
CLOUDS EXPECTED. EXPECT THE SPORADIC WIND GUSTS TO BECOME MORE
COMMON TOWARD MIDDAY AS THE 20-25 KT SEEN ON THE 12Z KIAD SOUNDING
ARE ABLE TO MIX DOWN. SOUNDING ALSO SUPPORTS GOING HIGH
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH A BIT OF DOWNSLOPING...SO NO ADJUSTMENTS
THERE.

WL HV SOME CLDS FM THE SYSTEM IN THE CENTRL OF THE CONUS ADVCG EWD
BY END OF THE PD. WL BE MOCLDY AS A RESULT IN THE EVNG AS WV CROSSES
CWFA. NAM SUGGESTING SCHC POPS...MAYBE DUE TO A FLURRY OR TWO. AMS
LOOKS TOO DRY FOR THAT. WENT LWR THAN NAM POPS...PRECLUDING A
MENTION...BUT POP GRIDS NONZERO. TOOK TEMPS DOWN BY A CPL DEGF IN
CAA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PTTN FRI SIMLR TO TDA...MINUS THE S/WVS. HV FEWER
CLDS IN THE GRIDS...AND SIMLR TEMPS. AFTR MIDNGT...WL HV MID DECK
CLDS FILLING IN FM THE SW...BUT FCST PACE OF STORM SYSTEM HAS
SLOWED...WHICH IMPACTS SKYCOVER. NE OF PTMC RIVER SKYCOVER MAY AVG
OUT NO WORSE THAN PTCLDY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC AND EXTEND DOWN INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING THE
OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CAUSE MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO THE REGION SATURDAY CAUSING CLOUDS TO BUILD IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. A JET STREAK WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE SE STATES
WITH MOST OF THE FORCING ACROSS THIS REGION INCLUDING THE
CAROLINAS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. FLOW AT 850 VEERS WESTERLY
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC SAT AFTERNOON AND SHUTS OFF MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM THE GULF. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHTER PRECIP ACROSS
THE REGION. MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH AND ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS. THE 3Z SREF MEAN HAS LINED UP MORE WITH THE
DETERMINISTIC RUNS SHOWING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 40S SATURDAY AND ANY
PRECIP WILL BE RAIN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
THAT WOULD SEE SNOW. LIGHT PRECIP IS EXPECTED AND THEREFORE LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IN THE MTNS IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST BY SUNDAY AND
RIDGING WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN FROM THE WEST. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF CALM WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM
BEGINS TO FORM OFF THE SE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE GULF COAST STATES AND CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO TAKE
PLACE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO BE ABOVE FREEZING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS MONDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.
LOW PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY. LITTLE
RELIEF IS EXPECTED AS THE NEXT STRONG SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION MIDWEEK. TIMING IS EVERYTHING AND MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEMS SEEMS TO BE PRE-FRONT AND THEREFORE THE MID=ATLANTIC WOULD
SEE MOSTLY RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH BKN CIGS AT TIMES 040-050 (EXCEPT CHO)
AND WIND GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE. CIGS WILL SCATTER OUT BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE GUSTY NW WINDS WILL BECOME MORE CONSISTENT THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH BY EVENING.

WL HV A PD OF MID DECK CLDS THIS EVNG. THINK WNDS WL SUBSIDE AT THE
SFC...BUT WL STILL HV 20-25 KT FLOW 1000 FT UP. NOT ENUF TO QUALIFY
FOR LLWS.

VFR CONTS FRI-FRI NGT. ANTHR PD OF GUSTY NW WINDS MIDDAY UP TO 20
KT. ONCE AGN...MID DECK CLDS WL OVERSPREAD TERMINALS AT NGT.

NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CALIBER GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MORNING
ANALYSIS SUGGESTS NW GUSTS 20-25 KT WITH MIXING. THESE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...NO CHANGES TO THE SCA DROPPING
OFF AT 19Z FOR THE UPPER POTOMAC AND 00Z ELSEWHERE.

GDNC SUGGESTING THAT FLOW WL PARTIALLY DCPL TNGT. AM NOT CERTAIN
OF THAT...BUT WL CAP WNDS JUST BLO FOR THE NIGHT TIME PD. THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR MIXING RENEWS AFTER SUNRISE FRI. HV ISSUED ANTHR
SCA FOR MOST OF THE BAY AND LWR PTMC RIVER THRU MID AFTN.

A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE WATERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AN
ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT
THE WATERS MONDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ531>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...ADS/HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...HAS
AVIATION...ADS/HAS/HTS
MARINE...ADS/HAS/HTS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 181449
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
949 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR A WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT WILL CROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. A SECONDARY LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UP FROM THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOOKS TO DEVELOP IN THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WILL EXTEND SE
TOWARD THE AREA TODAY...WHILE STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE WITH THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
STRATOCUMULUS EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA AND HAS
ACTUALLY ADVANCE A BIT BACK TO THE SE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
STILL THINK THIS LAYER CAN AT LEAST BECOME MORE SCATTERED WITH
DIURNAL MIXING...BUT MAY BE A SLOW PROCESS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. HI RES
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW PRECIP FIZZLING AS IT ENCOUNTERS DRIER AIR
MASS/HIGH PRESSURE...AND THE LAST COUPLE HOURS OF RADAR DATA
SUPPORT THE HYPOTHESIS. THERE IS A BETTER LATCHING ONTO THE
NORTHERN AREA SURVIVING ACROSS OHIO...SO WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS
AS TO WHETHER POPS MAY NEEDED TO BE ADDED LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE JUST AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
CLOUDS EXPECTED. EXPECT THE SPORADIC WIND GUSTS TO BECOME MORE
COMMON TOWARD MIDDAY AS THE 20-25 KT SEEN ON THE 12Z KIAD SOUNDING
ARE ABLE TO MIX DOWN. SOUNDING ALSO SUPPORTS GOING HIGH
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH A BIT OF DOWNSLOPING...SO NO ADJUSTMENTS
THERE.

WL HV SOME CLDS FM THE SYSTEM IN THE CENTRL OF THE CONUS ADVCG EWD
BY END OF THE PD. WL BE MOCLDY AS A RESULT IN THE EVNG AS WV CROSSES
CWFA. NAM SUGGESTING SCHC POPS...MAYBE DUE TO A FLURRY OR TWO. AMS
LOOKS TOO DRY FOR THAT. WENT LWR THAN NAM POPS...PRECLUDING A
MENTION...BUT POP GRIDS NONZERO. TOOK TEMPS DOWN BY A CPL DEGF IN
CAA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PTTN FRI SIMLR TO TDA...MINUS THE S/WVS. HV FEWER
CLDS IN THE GRIDS...AND SIMLR TEMPS. AFTR MIDNGT...WL HV MID DECK
CLDS FILLING IN FM THE SW...BUT FCST PACE OF STORM SYSTEM HAS
SLOWED...WHICH IMPACTS SKYCOVER. NE OF PTMC RIVER SKYCOVER MAY AVG
OUT NO WORSE THAN PTCLDY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC AND EXTEND DOWN INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING THE
OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CAUSE MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO THE REGION SATURDAY CAUSING CLOUDS TO BUILD IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. A JET STREAK WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE SE STATES
WITH MOST OF THE FORCING ACROSS THIS REGION INCLUDING THE
CAROLINAS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. FLOW AT 850 VEERS WESTERLY
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC SAT AFTERNOON AND SHUTS OFF MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM THE GULF. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHTER PRECIP ACROSS
THE REGION. MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH AND ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS. THE 3Z SREF MEAN HAS LINED UP MORE WITH THE
DETERMINISTIC RUNS SHOWING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 40S SATURDAY AND ANY
PRECIP WILL BE RAIN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
THAT WOULD SEE SNOW. LIGHT PRECIP IS EXPECTED AND THEREFORE LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IN THE MTNS IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST BY SUNDAY AND
RIDGING WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN FROM THE WEST. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF CALM WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM
BEGINS TO FORM OFF THE SE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE GULF COAST STATES AND CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO TAKE
PLACE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO BE ABOVE FREEZING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS MONDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.
LOW PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY. LITTLE
RELIEF IS EXPECTED AS THE NEXT STRONG SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION MIDWEEK. TIMING IS EVERYTHING AND MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEMS SEEMS TO BE PRE-FRONT AND THEREFORE THE MID=ATLANTIC WOULD
SEE MOSTLY RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH BKN CIGS AT TIMES 040-050 (EXCEPT CHO)
AND WIND GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE. CIGS WILL SCATTER OUT BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE GUSTY NW WINDS WILL BECOME MORE CONSISTENT THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH BY EVENING.

WL HV A PD OF MID DECK CLDS THIS EVNG. THINK WNDS WL SUBSIDE AT THE
SFC...BUT WL STILL HV 20-25 KT FLOW 1000 FT UP. NOT ENUF TO QUALIFY
FOR LLWS.

VFR CONTS FRI-FRI NGT. ANTHR PD OF GUSTY NW WINDS MIDDAY UP TO 20
KT. ONCE AGN...MID DECK CLDS WL OVERSPREAD TERMINALS AT NGT.

NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CALIBER GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MORNING
ANALYSIS SUGGESTS NW GUSTS 20-25 KT WITH MIXING. THESE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...NO CHANGES TO THE SCA DROPPING
OFF AT 19Z FOR THE UPPER POTOMAC AND 00Z ELSEWHERE.

GDNC SUGGESTING THAT FLOW WL PARTIALLY DCPL TNGT. AM NOT CERTAIN
OF THAT...BUT WL CAP WNDS JUST BLO FOR THE NIGHT TIME PD. THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR MIXING RENEWS AFTER SUNRISE FRI. HV ISSUED ANTHR
SCA FOR MOST OF THE BAY AND LWR PTMC RIVER THRU MID AFTN.

A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE WATERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AN
ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT
THE WATERS MONDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ531>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...ADS/HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...HAS
AVIATION...ADS/HAS/HTS
MARINE...ADS/HAS/HTS







000
FXUS61 KRNK 181144
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
644 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN OVERALL DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.
HOWEVER PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF
MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES
LATER FRIDAY AND MOVE EAST...PERHAPS BRINGING A PERIOD OF LIGHT
WINTRY PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 215 AM EST THURSDAY...

OVERALL DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IN PLACE UNDER A FAST/CONFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT. HOWEVER THE DEGREE OF CLOUDS AND WHETHER OR NOT ANY
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES WILL OCCUR REMAINS IN QUESTION GIVEN THE APPROACH
OF DECENT MID LEVEL ENERGY FROM THE WEST TODAY OVERTOP VERY DRY AIR IN
PLACE. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP...WITH THIS
WAVE NOW BACK OVER THE MIDWEST...MAKING IT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BUT DO
HAVE QUITE A BIT OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS PER RH SECTIONS. LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW EXTENSIVE DRY AIR BENEATH THE MID DECK SO
DOUBTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LIGHT PRECIP EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE FAR
WESTERN SLOPES. THUS TRIMMED BACK THE GOING COVERAGE OF SPRINKLES WITH
ONLY A BRIEF MENTION FAR WEST THIS AFTERNOON. OTRW LOOKING AT INTERVALS
OF SUN EARLY...OUTSIDE LINGERING UPSLOPE LOW CLOUDS WESTERN SLOPES...
WITH A PERIOD OF MORE MID DECK CLOUDS INTO THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
BRIEF FLUX OF FAINT WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE MAY PUSH
TEMPS OVER THE SE TO AROUND 50...WHILE MOST OTHER LOCATIONS
STRUGGLE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ESPCLY IF CLOUDS ARE FASTER
TO ARRIVE WHICH COULD MEAN MORE 30S FOR HIGHS MOUNTAINS.

WAVE ALOFT PASSES EAST OVERNIGHT LEAVING WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE
AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW NOSES BACK IN LATE. THIS WILL ALSO
INTRO ANOTHER ROUND OF WEAK COLD ADVECTION ALLOWING UPSLOPE CLOUDS TO
REDEVELOP FARTHER EAST...PERHAPS REACHING THE BLUE RIDGE BY DAYBREAK.
OTRW EXPECTING SLOW CLEARING OF THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH INFILTRATION OF LOW DECK ACROSS THE FAR WEST LATE.
WENT CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MET MOS AGAIN TONIGHT FOR TEMPS PER
LINGERING GRADIENT GIVEN THE PARENT HIGH TO THE NW AND SOME CLOUDS
PERSISTING AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EST THURSDAY...

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE ON THE DRY SIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REMAINS THE MAIN
FEATURE IN OUR WEATHER PATTERN. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES...TO AROUND 50
OVER THE SOUTHSIDE AND THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT. EXPECT TO SEE
HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING DURING THE EVENING...WITH WINDS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY NORTHEASTERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD AGAINST THE
EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS. COOL AIR FLOWING IN FROM THE NORTH
AND RADIATIONAL COOLING DESPITE THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT
LOWS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.

18/00Z FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND WEAKER AND SLOWER WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AND ITS
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST FRIDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR PRECIPITATION TO ENTER THE NORTH
CAROLINA HIGHLANDS SHORTLY BEFORE DAWN ON SATURDAY. FOR THIS
MORNING`S FORECAST...STILL PRETTY CONFIDENT THAT MOST AREAS WILL SEE
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION DESPITE MODELS TRENDING TOWARD A DRIER
SYSTEM...SO WILL MAINTAIN HIGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HOWEVER...HAVE
CUT DOWN ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...WITH MOST LOCATIONS BELOW 0.25
INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION.

PRECIPITATION TYPE IS ALSO A CHALLENGE. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL START
THE NIGHT OUT DRY...WITH THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE IN THE LOWEST FEW
THOUSAND FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE HOVERING WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
EITHER SIDE OF THE FREEZING MARK...DEPENDING ON LOCATION. IF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE AREA...IT WILL CAUSE THE ATMOSPHERE TO
MOISTEN AND THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE TO COOL...MAKING IT MORE LIKELY
TO START AS SLEET OR SNOW. LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY MANAGE TO START
AS RAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SLIGHTLY WARMER EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA...BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SLEET/SNOW TOWARD DAWN. ULTIMATELY
WENT ON THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE...TRENDING MORE TOWARDS FROZEN
PRECIPITATION TO START THE EVENT. BEST BET FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
WILL BE ON THE HIGHER RIDGES...WITH UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE AND OTHER HIGHER RIDGELINES...AND LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.

PRECIPITATION WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND THE EARLY HALF
OF SATURDAY NIGHT. UNDERCUT MODEL GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES FOR
FORECAST HIGHS CONSIDERING PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IN
EAST NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. MOST PRECIPITATION WILL BE EAST OF THE
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY...WITH YET ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
BUILDING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST SUNDAY NIGHT...RADIATING MOISTURE
NORTHWARD AND INTRODUCING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN...AND POTENTIALLY
FREEZING PRECIPITATION TO THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST THURSDAY...

THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN BASED UPON THE VARIOUS MODELS. HOWEVER...THESE SAME
MODELS OFFER ENOUGH DIFFERENCES TO MAKE THE DETAILS OF THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER ENOUGH OF CHALLENGE THAT CONFIDENCE IN THE SPECIFICS IS NOT
HIGH.

BY MONDAY...LATEST MODELS SHOW LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST WITH ANOTHER AXIS OF PRECIP MOVING NORTH ASSOCIATED
WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING LONGWAVE
TROUGH TO THE WEST. DEPENDING UPON HOW MUCH OR LITTLE THIS SYSTEM
DEEPENS WILL CORRELATE TO HOW LONG ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
REMAINS OVER OUR REGION. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE AREA IS
ALSO A QUESTION. EACH MODEL HAS A DIFFERENT TAKE ON THE MAGNITUDE
OF THE WARM NOSE OVER OUR REGION. THE ONLY CONSISTENT ELEMENT IS
THE EXISTENCE OF A WARM NOSE. GIVEN THIS...WILL OFFER RAIN VERSUS
FREEZING RAIN FORECAST DURING MUCH OF THE MONDAY PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. HOWEVER DESPITE QUITE A BIT OF WARMING ALOFT OFF THE
LATEST 00Z EC MODEL...THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET ACROSS THE VIRGINIA HIGHLANDS AND
SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY SECTIONS ESPCLY MONDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THOUGH WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE...MAINLY
RANGING IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW WHICH MAY HAVE TO BE
RAMPED UP LATER TODAY.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OF BRINGING A
CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
FROM THAT POINT...A DEEP LONGITUDINAL TROUGH DEVELOPS SOUTH TO THE
GULF OF MEXICO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASING MOISTURE
FETCH. BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND
ECWMF CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH AND
NEGATIVELY TILT THE FEATURE SO THAT THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO OFF
THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS...COINCIDENT TO THE POSITION OF THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT....WITH THE TRIPLE POINT PASSING
SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION. THIS PAINTS A PICTURE OF
VERY ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH PLENTY OF SHOWERS...VERY GUSTY...IF NOT DAMAGING...
WINDS...AND IF THE TRIPLE POINT PROGNOSTIC IS ACCURATE...SEVERE
WEATHER...OR AT LEAST A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER...OVER OR VERY
CLOSE TO OUR REGION OF THE COUNTRY. HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO STILL IS
DAY 6 INTO DAY 7 OF THE FORECAST...AND THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME FOR
CHANGES IN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS TO TREND TOWARD A LESS AGGRESSIVE
SYSTEM. GIVEN THIS...WILL OFFER A FORECAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY THAT OFFERS INCREASING CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN
WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ON TUESDAY...WITH MODERATE RAIN
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.
TIMING OF THE PUSH OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION AS WELL AS THE
MAGNITUDE OF THAT COLDER AIR VARIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECWMF.
HOWEVER...THE FORECAST WILL ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR COLD
ENOUGH AIR TO REACH WESTERN...HIGHER PARTS OF THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL TREND MILDER
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY MAY BE A BIT MILDER IN THE
EAST...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE WEST AS COMPARED TO TUESDAY. ALL
DAYS OF THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 620 AM EST THURSDAY...

MOST OF THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH MAINLY INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS PASSING
ACROSS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE THOSE AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND
WEST OF A KBLF-KLWB LINE WHERE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
MAKE FOR LOWER STRATO-CU CIGS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER MODELS FAVOR
KBLF LIFTING TO VFR AFTER 15Z/10AM SO KEPT SIMILAR TIMING TO
PREVIOUS ON LIFTING OUT THE LOW DECK. GUSTY NW WINDS WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL ALSO WEAKEN WITH SPEEDS MAINLY IN THE 8-15 KT RANGE
THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW WILL MAINTAIN
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY AGAIN CAUSE UPSLOPE INDUCED MVFR CIGS ACROSS SE WEST
VA TO SPILL EAST TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. SOME CHANCE FOR KBLF TO DROP INTO IFR LATE TONIGHT OTRW
KEEPING MVFR LEVELS MOSTLY AT KBLF/KLWB.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THE FRI NIGHT-SAT SYSTEM NOW HAS TRENDED WEAKER BUT WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED AS IT WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF SUB VFR
WINTRY WEATHER ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST SAT.

AVIATION INTERESTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION AS LATER
FORECASTS BECOME AVAILABLE. THIS WILL LIKELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON AIR
TRAVEL OVER THE WEEKEND...FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
CAROLINAS NORTH TO THE MID ATLANTIC.

ON THE HEELS OF THIS FRIDAY/SATURDAY SYSTEM WILL BE ANOTHER SYSTEM
TO POTENTIALLY IMPACT MAINLY THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE REGION
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
HEAD NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH SCATTERED PRECIPITATION ON
ITS WESTERN FLANKS ENTERING THE REGION. AT THIS POINT A WINTRY MIX
IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...DS/JH
AVIATION...DS/JH/PM/WP



000
FXUS61 KRNK 181144
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
644 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN OVERALL DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.
HOWEVER PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF
MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES
LATER FRIDAY AND MOVE EAST...PERHAPS BRINGING A PERIOD OF LIGHT
WINTRY PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 215 AM EST THURSDAY...

OVERALL DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IN PLACE UNDER A FAST/CONFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT. HOWEVER THE DEGREE OF CLOUDS AND WHETHER OR NOT ANY
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES WILL OCCUR REMAINS IN QUESTION GIVEN THE APPROACH
OF DECENT MID LEVEL ENERGY FROM THE WEST TODAY OVERTOP VERY DRY AIR IN
PLACE. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP...WITH THIS
WAVE NOW BACK OVER THE MIDWEST...MAKING IT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BUT DO
HAVE QUITE A BIT OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS PER RH SECTIONS. LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW EXTENSIVE DRY AIR BENEATH THE MID DECK SO
DOUBTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LIGHT PRECIP EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE FAR
WESTERN SLOPES. THUS TRIMMED BACK THE GOING COVERAGE OF SPRINKLES WITH
ONLY A BRIEF MENTION FAR WEST THIS AFTERNOON. OTRW LOOKING AT INTERVALS
OF SUN EARLY...OUTSIDE LINGERING UPSLOPE LOW CLOUDS WESTERN SLOPES...
WITH A PERIOD OF MORE MID DECK CLOUDS INTO THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
BRIEF FLUX OF FAINT WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE MAY PUSH
TEMPS OVER THE SE TO AROUND 50...WHILE MOST OTHER LOCATIONS
STRUGGLE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ESPCLY IF CLOUDS ARE FASTER
TO ARRIVE WHICH COULD MEAN MORE 30S FOR HIGHS MOUNTAINS.

WAVE ALOFT PASSES EAST OVERNIGHT LEAVING WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE
AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW NOSES BACK IN LATE. THIS WILL ALSO
INTRO ANOTHER ROUND OF WEAK COLD ADVECTION ALLOWING UPSLOPE CLOUDS TO
REDEVELOP FARTHER EAST...PERHAPS REACHING THE BLUE RIDGE BY DAYBREAK.
OTRW EXPECTING SLOW CLEARING OF THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH INFILTRATION OF LOW DECK ACROSS THE FAR WEST LATE.
WENT CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MET MOS AGAIN TONIGHT FOR TEMPS PER
LINGERING GRADIENT GIVEN THE PARENT HIGH TO THE NW AND SOME CLOUDS
PERSISTING AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EST THURSDAY...

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE ON THE DRY SIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REMAINS THE MAIN
FEATURE IN OUR WEATHER PATTERN. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES...TO AROUND 50
OVER THE SOUTHSIDE AND THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT. EXPECT TO SEE
HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING DURING THE EVENING...WITH WINDS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY NORTHEASTERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD AGAINST THE
EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS. COOL AIR FLOWING IN FROM THE NORTH
AND RADIATIONAL COOLING DESPITE THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT
LOWS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.

18/00Z FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND WEAKER AND SLOWER WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AND ITS
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST FRIDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR PRECIPITATION TO ENTER THE NORTH
CAROLINA HIGHLANDS SHORTLY BEFORE DAWN ON SATURDAY. FOR THIS
MORNING`S FORECAST...STILL PRETTY CONFIDENT THAT MOST AREAS WILL SEE
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION DESPITE MODELS TRENDING TOWARD A DRIER
SYSTEM...SO WILL MAINTAIN HIGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HOWEVER...HAVE
CUT DOWN ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...WITH MOST LOCATIONS BELOW 0.25
INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION.

PRECIPITATION TYPE IS ALSO A CHALLENGE. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL START
THE NIGHT OUT DRY...WITH THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE IN THE LOWEST FEW
THOUSAND FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE HOVERING WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
EITHER SIDE OF THE FREEZING MARK...DEPENDING ON LOCATION. IF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE AREA...IT WILL CAUSE THE ATMOSPHERE TO
MOISTEN AND THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE TO COOL...MAKING IT MORE LIKELY
TO START AS SLEET OR SNOW. LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY MANAGE TO START
AS RAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SLIGHTLY WARMER EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA...BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SLEET/SNOW TOWARD DAWN. ULTIMATELY
WENT ON THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE...TRENDING MORE TOWARDS FROZEN
PRECIPITATION TO START THE EVENT. BEST BET FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
WILL BE ON THE HIGHER RIDGES...WITH UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE AND OTHER HIGHER RIDGELINES...AND LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.

PRECIPITATION WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND THE EARLY HALF
OF SATURDAY NIGHT. UNDERCUT MODEL GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES FOR
FORECAST HIGHS CONSIDERING PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IN
EAST NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. MOST PRECIPITATION WILL BE EAST OF THE
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY...WITH YET ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
BUILDING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST SUNDAY NIGHT...RADIATING MOISTURE
NORTHWARD AND INTRODUCING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN...AND POTENTIALLY
FREEZING PRECIPITATION TO THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST THURSDAY...

THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN BASED UPON THE VARIOUS MODELS. HOWEVER...THESE SAME
MODELS OFFER ENOUGH DIFFERENCES TO MAKE THE DETAILS OF THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER ENOUGH OF CHALLENGE THAT CONFIDENCE IN THE SPECIFICS IS NOT
HIGH.

BY MONDAY...LATEST MODELS SHOW LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST WITH ANOTHER AXIS OF PRECIP MOVING NORTH ASSOCIATED
WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING LONGWAVE
TROUGH TO THE WEST. DEPENDING UPON HOW MUCH OR LITTLE THIS SYSTEM
DEEPENS WILL CORRELATE TO HOW LONG ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
REMAINS OVER OUR REGION. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE AREA IS
ALSO A QUESTION. EACH MODEL HAS A DIFFERENT TAKE ON THE MAGNITUDE
OF THE WARM NOSE OVER OUR REGION. THE ONLY CONSISTENT ELEMENT IS
THE EXISTENCE OF A WARM NOSE. GIVEN THIS...WILL OFFER RAIN VERSUS
FREEZING RAIN FORECAST DURING MUCH OF THE MONDAY PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. HOWEVER DESPITE QUITE A BIT OF WARMING ALOFT OFF THE
LATEST 00Z EC MODEL...THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET ACROSS THE VIRGINIA HIGHLANDS AND
SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY SECTIONS ESPCLY MONDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THOUGH WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE...MAINLY
RANGING IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW WHICH MAY HAVE TO BE
RAMPED UP LATER TODAY.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OF BRINGING A
CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
FROM THAT POINT...A DEEP LONGITUDINAL TROUGH DEVELOPS SOUTH TO THE
GULF OF MEXICO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASING MOISTURE
FETCH. BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND
ECWMF CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH AND
NEGATIVELY TILT THE FEATURE SO THAT THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO OFF
THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS...COINCIDENT TO THE POSITION OF THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT....WITH THE TRIPLE POINT PASSING
SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION. THIS PAINTS A PICTURE OF
VERY ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH PLENTY OF SHOWERS...VERY GUSTY...IF NOT DAMAGING...
WINDS...AND IF THE TRIPLE POINT PROGNOSTIC IS ACCURATE...SEVERE
WEATHER...OR AT LEAST A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER...OVER OR VERY
CLOSE TO OUR REGION OF THE COUNTRY. HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO STILL IS
DAY 6 INTO DAY 7 OF THE FORECAST...AND THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME FOR
CHANGES IN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS TO TREND TOWARD A LESS AGGRESSIVE
SYSTEM. GIVEN THIS...WILL OFFER A FORECAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY THAT OFFERS INCREASING CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN
WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ON TUESDAY...WITH MODERATE RAIN
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.
TIMING OF THE PUSH OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION AS WELL AS THE
MAGNITUDE OF THAT COLDER AIR VARIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECWMF.
HOWEVER...THE FORECAST WILL ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR COLD
ENOUGH AIR TO REACH WESTERN...HIGHER PARTS OF THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL TREND MILDER
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY MAY BE A BIT MILDER IN THE
EAST...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE WEST AS COMPARED TO TUESDAY. ALL
DAYS OF THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 620 AM EST THURSDAY...

MOST OF THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH MAINLY INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS PASSING
ACROSS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE THOSE AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND
WEST OF A KBLF-KLWB LINE WHERE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
MAKE FOR LOWER STRATO-CU CIGS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER MODELS FAVOR
KBLF LIFTING TO VFR AFTER 15Z/10AM SO KEPT SIMILAR TIMING TO
PREVIOUS ON LIFTING OUT THE LOW DECK. GUSTY NW WINDS WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL ALSO WEAKEN WITH SPEEDS MAINLY IN THE 8-15 KT RANGE
THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW WILL MAINTAIN
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY AGAIN CAUSE UPSLOPE INDUCED MVFR CIGS ACROSS SE WEST
VA TO SPILL EAST TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. SOME CHANCE FOR KBLF TO DROP INTO IFR LATE TONIGHT OTRW
KEEPING MVFR LEVELS MOSTLY AT KBLF/KLWB.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THE FRI NIGHT-SAT SYSTEM NOW HAS TRENDED WEAKER BUT WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED AS IT WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF SUB VFR
WINTRY WEATHER ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST SAT.

AVIATION INTERESTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION AS LATER
FORECASTS BECOME AVAILABLE. THIS WILL LIKELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON AIR
TRAVEL OVER THE WEEKEND...FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
CAROLINAS NORTH TO THE MID ATLANTIC.

ON THE HEELS OF THIS FRIDAY/SATURDAY SYSTEM WILL BE ANOTHER SYSTEM
TO POTENTIALLY IMPACT MAINLY THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE REGION
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
HEAD NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH SCATTERED PRECIPITATION ON
ITS WESTERN FLANKS ENTERING THE REGION. AT THIS POINT A WINTRY MIX
IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...DS/JH
AVIATION...DS/JH/PM/WP




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 181133
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
633 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
FRIDAY. ONE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF COAST
STATES EAST NORTHEAST TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY MORNING
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS ~995 MB LO PRES OVR NOVA SCOTIA WITH
BROAD ~1029 HI PRES OVR THE NRN PLAINS AND MIDWEST STATES. A WEAK
SFC TROF DROPPED THRU THE MID ATLANTIC THIS MORNG...WITH DRIER NW
FLOW BEHIND THE FRNT PREVENTING ANY FOG FORMATION UNLIKE THE PAST
COUPLE NIGHTS. THE HI WILL SPREAD E INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TDA
ALLOWING FOR THE DRY CONDS TO CONTINUE. OTWS...EXPECT A
PRTLY/MSTLY SUNNY SKY WITH TEMPS ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPR
40S WITH WEAK CAA OVR THE AREA.

DRY WX CONTINUES TNGT WITH A MID-LEVEL S/W TROF PASSING N OF THE
AREA. THE MID ATLANTIC REMAINS INFLUENCED BY SFC HI PRES CENTERED
OVR THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY. EXPECT LIGHT NW WINDS...A PRTLY COUDY
SKY...AND LO TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR 20S TO LWR 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HI PRES SLIDES E THRU THE OH VALLEY AND NE STATES FRI INTO FRI
NIGHT WITH DRY CONDS OVR THE MID ATLANTIC. HI TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPR 40S FRI WITH LO TEMPS FRI NIGHT IN THE UPR 20 TO LWR
30S...AND INCREASING CLOUDS LATE. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SFC LO
PRES DEVELOPING OVR THE GOM. ALL 00Z AND 06Z GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED
THE NRN ADVANCEMENT OF PCPN SAT FARTHER S AND DELAYED THE
TIMING...SO ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. MODEL THICKNESSES SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR SLEET TO MIX IN OVR THE PIEDMONT AT THE
ONSET...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO PLAIN RAIN. POPS SAT AFTN RANGE FM
10-20% FAR N...TO 30-40% AROUND RIC...TO 60-70% FAR S. PCPN
(MAINLY RAIN BUT SNOW PSBLY MIXED IN) WILL END QUICKLY SAT NIGHT
WITH THE UPR-LEVEL FLOW BEING FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND THE SFC LO
WEAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NW SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL TO AROUND 30 NW TO THE
UPPER 30S SE. HOWEVER...ANY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOULD END PRIOR TO
ANY SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AOB 32F. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD PREVAIL SUNDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER LOW FORMS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AND TRACKS NE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME
TEMPERATURES APPEAR WARM ENOUGH FOR ONLY RAIN. HOWEVER...THERE
COULD BE A BRIEF MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT
SUNDAY NIGHT. MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH
MILDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITION THROUGH THE FCST PRD WITH ONLY BKN CIRRUS CLOUDS
XPCTD. NRTH WNDS AOB 10 KTS AS TROF MOVES EAST ACROSS THE RGN.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES FRIDAY. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL KEEP SCA GOING THRU THE LATE MORNING HRS AS FIRST CAA SURGE
WORKS IT WAY THROUGH THE WATERS. ANTHR WEAKER NRLY SURGE SEEN
TONIGHT AS A SCNDRY TROF CROSSES THE RGN...BUT WILL CAP WINDS AT
15 KTS FOR NOW. OTW...N-NE FLOW CONTINUES BLO SCA LVLS INTO THE
WEEKEND.

LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO TRACK ENE TO IMMEDIATELY OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW TRACKS
NE OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO
SPECULATE ON THE POTENTIAL OF SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS/TMG
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 181133
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
633 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
FRIDAY. ONE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF COAST
STATES EAST NORTHEAST TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY MORNING
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS ~995 MB LO PRES OVR NOVA SCOTIA WITH
BROAD ~1029 HI PRES OVR THE NRN PLAINS AND MIDWEST STATES. A WEAK
SFC TROF DROPPED THRU THE MID ATLANTIC THIS MORNG...WITH DRIER NW
FLOW BEHIND THE FRNT PREVENTING ANY FOG FORMATION UNLIKE THE PAST
COUPLE NIGHTS. THE HI WILL SPREAD E INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TDA
ALLOWING FOR THE DRY CONDS TO CONTINUE. OTWS...EXPECT A
PRTLY/MSTLY SUNNY SKY WITH TEMPS ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPR
40S WITH WEAK CAA OVR THE AREA.

DRY WX CONTINUES TNGT WITH A MID-LEVEL S/W TROF PASSING N OF THE
AREA. THE MID ATLANTIC REMAINS INFLUENCED BY SFC HI PRES CENTERED
OVR THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY. EXPECT LIGHT NW WINDS...A PRTLY COUDY
SKY...AND LO TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR 20S TO LWR 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HI PRES SLIDES E THRU THE OH VALLEY AND NE STATES FRI INTO FRI
NIGHT WITH DRY CONDS OVR THE MID ATLANTIC. HI TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPR 40S FRI WITH LO TEMPS FRI NIGHT IN THE UPR 20 TO LWR
30S...AND INCREASING CLOUDS LATE. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SFC LO
PRES DEVELOPING OVR THE GOM. ALL 00Z AND 06Z GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED
THE NRN ADVANCEMENT OF PCPN SAT FARTHER S AND DELAYED THE
TIMING...SO ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. MODEL THICKNESSES SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR SLEET TO MIX IN OVR THE PIEDMONT AT THE
ONSET...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO PLAIN RAIN. POPS SAT AFTN RANGE FM
10-20% FAR N...TO 30-40% AROUND RIC...TO 60-70% FAR S. PCPN
(MAINLY RAIN BUT SNOW PSBLY MIXED IN) WILL END QUICKLY SAT NIGHT
WITH THE UPR-LEVEL FLOW BEING FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND THE SFC LO
WEAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NW SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL TO AROUND 30 NW TO THE
UPPER 30S SE. HOWEVER...ANY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOULD END PRIOR TO
ANY SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AOB 32F. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD PREVAIL SUNDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER LOW FORMS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AND TRACKS NE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME
TEMPERATURES APPEAR WARM ENOUGH FOR ONLY RAIN. HOWEVER...THERE
COULD BE A BRIEF MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT
SUNDAY NIGHT. MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH
MILDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITION THROUGH THE FCST PRD WITH ONLY BKN CIRRUS CLOUDS
XPCTD. NRTH WNDS AOB 10 KTS AS TROF MOVES EAST ACROSS THE RGN.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES FRIDAY. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL KEEP SCA GOING THRU THE LATE MORNING HRS AS FIRST CAA SURGE
WORKS IT WAY THROUGH THE WATERS. ANTHR WEAKER NRLY SURGE SEEN
TONIGHT AS A SCNDRY TROF CROSSES THE RGN...BUT WILL CAP WINDS AT
15 KTS FOR NOW. OTW...N-NE FLOW CONTINUES BLO SCA LVLS INTO THE
WEEKEND.

LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO TRACK ENE TO IMMEDIATELY OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW TRACKS
NE OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO
SPECULATE ON THE POTENTIAL OF SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS/TMG
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 181121
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
621 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
FRIDAY. ONE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF COAST
STATES EAST NORTHEAST TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY MORNING
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS ~995 MB LO PRES OVR NOVA SCOTIA WITH
BROAD ~1029 HI PRES OVR THE NRN PLAINS AND MIDWEST STATES. A WEAK
SFC TROF DROPPED THRU THE MID ATLANTIC THIS MORNG...WITH DRIER NW
FLOW BEHIND THE FRNT PREVENTING ANY FOG FORMATION UNLIKE THE PAST
COUPLE NIGHTS. THE HI WILL SPREAD E INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TDA
ALLOWING FOR THE DRY CONDS TO CONTINUE. OTWS...EXPECT A
PRTLY/MSTLY SUNNY SKY WITH TEMPS ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPR
40S WITH WEAK CAA OVR THE AREA.

DRY WX CONTINUES TNGT WITH A MID-LEVEL S/W TROF PASSING N OF THE
AREA. THE MID ATLANTIC REMAINS INFLUENCED BY SFC HI PRES CENTERED
OVR THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY. EXPECT LIGHT NW WINDS...A PRTLY COUDY
SKY...AND LO TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR 20S TO LWR 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HI PRES SLIDES E THRU THE OH VALLEY AND NE STATES FRI INTO FRI
NIGHT WITH DRY CONDS OVR THE MID ATLANTIC. HI TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPR 40S FRI WITH LO TEMPS FRI NIGHT IN THE UPR 20 TO LWR
30S...AND INCREASING CLOUDS LATE. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SFC LO
PRES DEVELOPING OVR THE GOM. ALL 00Z GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED THE NRN
ADVANCEMENT OF PCPN SAT FARTHER S AND DELAYED THE TIMING...SO
ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. MODEL THICKNESSES SHOW THE POTENTIAL
FOR SLEET TO MIX IN OVR THE PIEDMONT AT THE ONSET...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO PLAIN RAIN. POPS SAT AFTN RANGE FM 20% FAR N...TO
40% AROUND RIC...TO 70% FAR S. PCPN (MAINLY RAIN BUT SNOW PSBLY
MIXED IN) WILL END QUICKLY SAT NIGHT WITH THE UPR-LEVEL FLOW BEING
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND THE SFC LO WEAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NW SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL TO AROUND 30 NW TO THE
UPPER 30S SE. HOWEVER...ANY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOULD END PRIOR TO
ANY SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AOB 32F. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD PREVAIL SUNDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER LOW FORMS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AND TRACKS NE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME
TEMPERATURES APPEAR WARM ENOUGH FOR ONLY RAIN. HOWEVER...THERE
COULD BE A BRIEF MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT
SUNDAY NIGHT. MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH
MILDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITION THROUGH THE FCST PRD WITH ONLY BKN CIRRUS CLOUDS
XPCTD. NRTH WNDS AOB 10 KTS AS TROF MOVES EAST ACROSS THE RGN.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES FRIDAY. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL KEEP SCA GOING THRU THE LATE MORNING HRS AS FIRST CAA SURGE
WORKS IT WAY THROUGH THE WATERS. ANTHR WEAKER NRLY SURGE SEEN
TONIGHT AS A SCNDRY TROF CROSSES THE RGN...BUT WILL CAP WINDS AT
15 KTS FOR NOW. OTW...N-NE FLOW CONTINUES BLO SCA LVLS INTO THE
WEEKEND.

LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO TRACK ENE TO IMMEDIATELY OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW TRACKS
NE OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO
SPECULATE ON THE POTENTIAL OF SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS/TMG
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 181121
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
621 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
FRIDAY. ONE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF COAST
STATES EAST NORTHEAST TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY MORNING
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS ~995 MB LO PRES OVR NOVA SCOTIA WITH
BROAD ~1029 HI PRES OVR THE NRN PLAINS AND MIDWEST STATES. A WEAK
SFC TROF DROPPED THRU THE MID ATLANTIC THIS MORNG...WITH DRIER NW
FLOW BEHIND THE FRNT PREVENTING ANY FOG FORMATION UNLIKE THE PAST
COUPLE NIGHTS. THE HI WILL SPREAD E INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TDA
ALLOWING FOR THE DRY CONDS TO CONTINUE. OTWS...EXPECT A
PRTLY/MSTLY SUNNY SKY WITH TEMPS ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPR
40S WITH WEAK CAA OVR THE AREA.

DRY WX CONTINUES TNGT WITH A MID-LEVEL S/W TROF PASSING N OF THE
AREA. THE MID ATLANTIC REMAINS INFLUENCED BY SFC HI PRES CENTERED
OVR THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY. EXPECT LIGHT NW WINDS...A PRTLY COUDY
SKY...AND LO TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR 20S TO LWR 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HI PRES SLIDES E THRU THE OH VALLEY AND NE STATES FRI INTO FRI
NIGHT WITH DRY CONDS OVR THE MID ATLANTIC. HI TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPR 40S FRI WITH LO TEMPS FRI NIGHT IN THE UPR 20 TO LWR
30S...AND INCREASING CLOUDS LATE. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SFC LO
PRES DEVELOPING OVR THE GOM. ALL 00Z GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED THE NRN
ADVANCEMENT OF PCPN SAT FARTHER S AND DELAYED THE TIMING...SO
ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. MODEL THICKNESSES SHOW THE POTENTIAL
FOR SLEET TO MIX IN OVR THE PIEDMONT AT THE ONSET...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO PLAIN RAIN. POPS SAT AFTN RANGE FM 20% FAR N...TO
40% AROUND RIC...TO 70% FAR S. PCPN (MAINLY RAIN BUT SNOW PSBLY
MIXED IN) WILL END QUICKLY SAT NIGHT WITH THE UPR-LEVEL FLOW BEING
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND THE SFC LO WEAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NW SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL TO AROUND 30 NW TO THE
UPPER 30S SE. HOWEVER...ANY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOULD END PRIOR TO
ANY SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AOB 32F. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD PREVAIL SUNDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER LOW FORMS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AND TRACKS NE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME
TEMPERATURES APPEAR WARM ENOUGH FOR ONLY RAIN. HOWEVER...THERE
COULD BE A BRIEF MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT
SUNDAY NIGHT. MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH
MILDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITION THROUGH THE FCST PRD WITH ONLY BKN CIRRUS CLOUDS
XPCTD. NRTH WNDS AOB 10 KTS AS TROF MOVES EAST ACROSS THE RGN.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES FRIDAY. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL KEEP SCA GOING THRU THE LATE MORNING HRS AS FIRST CAA SURGE
WORKS IT WAY THROUGH THE WATERS. ANTHR WEAKER NRLY SURGE SEEN
TONIGHT AS A SCNDRY TROF CROSSES THE RGN...BUT WILL CAP WINDS AT
15 KTS FOR NOW. OTW...N-NE FLOW CONTINUES BLO SCA LVLS INTO THE
WEEKEND.

LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO TRACK ENE TO IMMEDIATELY OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW TRACKS
NE OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO
SPECULATE ON THE POTENTIAL OF SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS/TMG
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 181121
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
621 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
FRIDAY. ONE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF COAST
STATES EAST NORTHEAST TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY MORNING
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS ~995 MB LO PRES OVR NOVA SCOTIA WITH
BROAD ~1029 HI PRES OVR THE NRN PLAINS AND MIDWEST STATES. A WEAK
SFC TROF DROPPED THRU THE MID ATLANTIC THIS MORNG...WITH DRIER NW
FLOW BEHIND THE FRNT PREVENTING ANY FOG FORMATION UNLIKE THE PAST
COUPLE NIGHTS. THE HI WILL SPREAD E INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TDA
ALLOWING FOR THE DRY CONDS TO CONTINUE. OTWS...EXPECT A
PRTLY/MSTLY SUNNY SKY WITH TEMPS ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPR
40S WITH WEAK CAA OVR THE AREA.

DRY WX CONTINUES TNGT WITH A MID-LEVEL S/W TROF PASSING N OF THE
AREA. THE MID ATLANTIC REMAINS INFLUENCED BY SFC HI PRES CENTERED
OVR THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY. EXPECT LIGHT NW WINDS...A PRTLY COUDY
SKY...AND LO TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR 20S TO LWR 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HI PRES SLIDES E THRU THE OH VALLEY AND NE STATES FRI INTO FRI
NIGHT WITH DRY CONDS OVR THE MID ATLANTIC. HI TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPR 40S FRI WITH LO TEMPS FRI NIGHT IN THE UPR 20 TO LWR
30S...AND INCREASING CLOUDS LATE. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SFC LO
PRES DEVELOPING OVR THE GOM. ALL 00Z GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED THE NRN
ADVANCEMENT OF PCPN SAT FARTHER S AND DELAYED THE TIMING...SO
ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. MODEL THICKNESSES SHOW THE POTENTIAL
FOR SLEET TO MIX IN OVR THE PIEDMONT AT THE ONSET...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO PLAIN RAIN. POPS SAT AFTN RANGE FM 20% FAR N...TO
40% AROUND RIC...TO 70% FAR S. PCPN (MAINLY RAIN BUT SNOW PSBLY
MIXED IN) WILL END QUICKLY SAT NIGHT WITH THE UPR-LEVEL FLOW BEING
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND THE SFC LO WEAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NW SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL TO AROUND 30 NW TO THE
UPPER 30S SE. HOWEVER...ANY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOULD END PRIOR TO
ANY SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AOB 32F. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD PREVAIL SUNDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER LOW FORMS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AND TRACKS NE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME
TEMPERATURES APPEAR WARM ENOUGH FOR ONLY RAIN. HOWEVER...THERE
COULD BE A BRIEF MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT
SUNDAY NIGHT. MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH
MILDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITION THROUGH THE FCST PRD WITH ONLY BKN CIRRUS CLOUDS
XPCTD. NRTH WNDS AOB 10 KTS AS TROF MOVES EAST ACROSS THE RGN.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES FRIDAY. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL KEEP SCA GOING THRU THE LATE MORNING HRS AS FIRST CAA SURGE
WORKS IT WAY THROUGH THE WATERS. ANTHR WEAKER NRLY SURGE SEEN
TONIGHT AS A SCNDRY TROF CROSSES THE RGN...BUT WILL CAP WINDS AT
15 KTS FOR NOW. OTW...N-NE FLOW CONTINUES BLO SCA LVLS INTO THE
WEEKEND.

LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO TRACK ENE TO IMMEDIATELY OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW TRACKS
NE OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO
SPECULATE ON THE POTENTIAL OF SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS/TMG
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 181121
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
621 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
FRIDAY. ONE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF COAST
STATES EAST NORTHEAST TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY MORNING
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS ~995 MB LO PRES OVR NOVA SCOTIA WITH
BROAD ~1029 HI PRES OVR THE NRN PLAINS AND MIDWEST STATES. A WEAK
SFC TROF DROPPED THRU THE MID ATLANTIC THIS MORNG...WITH DRIER NW
FLOW BEHIND THE FRNT PREVENTING ANY FOG FORMATION UNLIKE THE PAST
COUPLE NIGHTS. THE HI WILL SPREAD E INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TDA
ALLOWING FOR THE DRY CONDS TO CONTINUE. OTWS...EXPECT A
PRTLY/MSTLY SUNNY SKY WITH TEMPS ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPR
40S WITH WEAK CAA OVR THE AREA.

DRY WX CONTINUES TNGT WITH A MID-LEVEL S/W TROF PASSING N OF THE
AREA. THE MID ATLANTIC REMAINS INFLUENCED BY SFC HI PRES CENTERED
OVR THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY. EXPECT LIGHT NW WINDS...A PRTLY COUDY
SKY...AND LO TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR 20S TO LWR 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HI PRES SLIDES E THRU THE OH VALLEY AND NE STATES FRI INTO FRI
NIGHT WITH DRY CONDS OVR THE MID ATLANTIC. HI TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPR 40S FRI WITH LO TEMPS FRI NIGHT IN THE UPR 20 TO LWR
30S...AND INCREASING CLOUDS LATE. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SFC LO
PRES DEVELOPING OVR THE GOM. ALL 00Z GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED THE NRN
ADVANCEMENT OF PCPN SAT FARTHER S AND DELAYED THE TIMING...SO
ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. MODEL THICKNESSES SHOW THE POTENTIAL
FOR SLEET TO MIX IN OVR THE PIEDMONT AT THE ONSET...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO PLAIN RAIN. POPS SAT AFTN RANGE FM 20% FAR N...TO
40% AROUND RIC...TO 70% FAR S. PCPN (MAINLY RAIN BUT SNOW PSBLY
MIXED IN) WILL END QUICKLY SAT NIGHT WITH THE UPR-LEVEL FLOW BEING
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND THE SFC LO WEAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NW SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL TO AROUND 30 NW TO THE
UPPER 30S SE. HOWEVER...ANY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOULD END PRIOR TO
ANY SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AOB 32F. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD PREVAIL SUNDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER LOW FORMS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AND TRACKS NE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME
TEMPERATURES APPEAR WARM ENOUGH FOR ONLY RAIN. HOWEVER...THERE
COULD BE A BRIEF MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT
SUNDAY NIGHT. MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH
MILDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITION THROUGH THE FCST PRD WITH ONLY BKN CIRRUS CLOUDS
XPCTD. NRTH WNDS AOB 10 KTS AS TROF MOVES EAST ACROSS THE RGN.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES FRIDAY. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL KEEP SCA GOING THRU THE LATE MORNING HRS AS FIRST CAA SURGE
WORKS IT WAY THROUGH THE WATERS. ANTHR WEAKER NRLY SURGE SEEN
TONIGHT AS A SCNDRY TROF CROSSES THE RGN...BUT WILL CAP WINDS AT
15 KTS FOR NOW. OTW...N-NE FLOW CONTINUES BLO SCA LVLS INTO THE
WEEKEND.

LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO TRACK ENE TO IMMEDIATELY OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW TRACKS
NE OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO
SPECULATE ON THE POTENTIAL OF SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS/TMG
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR






000
FXUS61 KRNK 180909
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
409 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN OVERALL DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.
HOWEVER PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF
MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES
LATER FRIDAY AND MOVE EAST...PERHAPS BRINGING A PERIOD OF LIGHT
WINTRY PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 215 AM EST THURSDAY...

OVERALL DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IN PLACE UNDER A FAST/CONFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT. HOWEVER THE DEGREE OF CLOUDS AND WHETHER OR NOT ANY
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES WILL OCCUR REMAINS IN QUESTION GIVEN THE APPROACH
OF DECENT MID LEVEL ENERGY FROM THE WEST TODAY OVERTOP VERY DRY AIR IN
PLACE. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP...WITH THIS
WAVE NOW BACK OVER THE MIDWEST...MAKING IT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BUT DO
HAVE QUITE A BIT OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS PER RH SECTIONS. LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW EXTENSIVE DRY AIR BENEATH THE MID DECK SO
DOUBTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LIGHT PRECIP EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE FAR
WESTERN SLOPES. THUS TRIMMED BACK THE GOING COVERAGE OF SPRINKLES WITH
ONLY A BRIEF MENTION FAR WEST THIS AFTERNOON. OTRW LOOKING AT INTERVALS
OF SUN EARLY...OUTSIDE LINGERING UPSLOPE LOW CLOUDS WESTERN SLOPES...
WITH A PERIOD OF MORE MID DECK CLOUDS INTO THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
BRIEF FLUX OF FAINT WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE MAY PUSH
TEMPS OVER THE SE TO AROUND 50...WHILE MOST OTHER LOCATIONS
STRUGGLE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ESPCLY IF CLOUDS ARE FASTER
TO ARRIVE WHICH COULD MEAN MORE 30S FOR HIGHS MOUNTAINS.

WAVE ALOFT PASSES EAST OVERNIGHT LEAVING WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE
AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW NOSES BACK IN LATE. THIS WILL ALSO
INTRO ANOTHER ROUND OF WEAK COLD ADVECTION ALLOWING UPSLOPE CLOUDS TO
REDEVELOP FARTHER EAST...PERHAPS REACHING THE BLUE RIDGE BY DAYBREAK.
OTRW EXPECTING SLOW CLEARING OF THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH INFILTRATION OF LOW DECK ACROSS THE FAR WEST LATE.
WENT CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MET MOS AGAIN TONIGHT FOR TEMPS PER
LINGERING GRADIENT GIVEN THE PARENT HIGH TO THE NW AND SOME CLOUDS
PERSISTING AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EST THURSDAY...

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE ON THE DRY SIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REMAINS THE MAIN
FEATURE IN OUR WEATHER PATTERN. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES...TO AROUND 50
OVER THE SOUTHSIDE AND THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT. EXPECT TO SEE
HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING DURING THE EVENING...WITH WINDS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY NORTHEASTERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD AGAINST THE
EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS. COOL AIR FLOWING IN FROM THE NORTH
AND RADIATIONAL COOLING DESPITE THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT
LOWS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.

18/00Z FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND WEAKER AND SLOWER WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AND ITS
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST FRIDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR PRECIPITATION TO ENTER THE NORTH
CAROLINA HIGHLANDS SHORTLY BEFORE DAWN ON SATURDAY. FOR THIS
MORNING`S FORECAST...STILL PRETTY CONFIDENT THAT MOST AREAS WILL SEE
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION DESPITE MODELS TRENDING TOWARD A DRIER
SYSTEM...SO WILL MAINTAIN HIGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HOWEVER...HAVE
CUT DOWN ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...WITH MOST LOCATIONS BELOW 0.25
INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION.

PRECIPITATION TYPE IS ALSO A CHALLENGE. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL START
THE NIGHT OUT DRY...WITH THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE IN THE LOWEST FEW
THOUSAND FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE HOVERING WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
EITHER SIDE OF THE FREEZING MARK...DEPENDING ON LOCATION. IF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE AREA...IT WILL CAUSE THE ATMOSPHERE TO
MOISTEN AND THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE TO COOL...MAKING IT MORE LIKELY
TO START AS SLEET OR SNOW. LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY MANAGE TO START
AS RAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SLIGHTLY WARMER EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA...BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SLEET/SNOW TOWARD DAWN. ULTIMATELY
WENT ON THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE...TRENDING MORE TOWARDS FROZEN
PRECIPITATION TO START THE EVENT. BEST BET FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
WILL BE ON THE HIGHER RIDGES...WITH UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE AND OTHER HIGHER RIDGELINES...AND LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.

PRECIPITATION WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND THE EARLY HALF
OF SATURDAY NIGHT. UNDERCUT MODEL GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES FOR
FORECAST HIGHS CONSIDERING PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IN
EAST NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. MOST PRECIPITATION WILL BE EAST OF THE
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY...WITH YET ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
BUILDING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST SUNDAY NIGHT...RADIATING MOISTURE
NORTHWARD AND INTRODUCING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN...AND POTENTIALLY
FREEZING PRECIPITATION TO THE MOUNTAINS.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST THURSDAY...

THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN BASED UPON THE VARIOUS MODELS. HOWEVER...THESE SAME
MODELS OFFER ENOUGH DIFFERENCES TO MAKE THE DETAILS OF THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER ENOUGH OF CHALLENGE THAT CONFIDENCE IN THE SPECIFICS IS NOT
HIGH.

BY MONDAY...LATEST MODELS SHOW LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST WITH ANOTHER AXIS OF PRECIP MOVING NORTH ASSOCIATED
WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING LONGWAVE
TROUGH TO THE WEST. DEPENDING UPON HOW MUCH OR LITTLE THIS SYSTEM
DEEPENS WILL CORRELATE TO HOW LONG ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
REMAINS OVER OUR REGION. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE AREA IS
ALSO A QUESTION. EACH MODEL HAS A DIFFERENT TAKE ON THE MAGNITUDE
OF THE WARM NOSE OVER OUR REGION. THE ONLY CONSISTENT ELEMENT IS
THE EXISTENCE OF A WARM NOSE. GIVEN THIS...WILL OFFER RAIN VERSUS
FREEZING RAIN FORECAST DURING MUCH OF THE MONDAY PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. HOWEVER DESPITE QUITE A BIT OF WARMING ALOFT OFF THE
LATEST 00Z EC MODEL...THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET ACROSS THE VIRGINIA HIGHLANDS AND
SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY SECTIONS ESPCLY MONDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THOUGH WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE...MAINLY
RANGING IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW WHICH MAY HAVE TO BE
RAMPED UP LATER TODAY.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OF BRINGING A
CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
FROM THAT POINT...A DEEP LONGITUDINAL TROUGH DEVELOPS SOUTH TO THE
GULF OF MEXICO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASING MOISTURE
FETCH. BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND
ECWMF CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH AND
NEGATIVELY TILT THE FEATURE SO THAT THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO OFF
THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS...COINCIDENT TO THE POSITION OF THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT....WITH THE TRIPLE POINT PASSING
SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION. THIS PAINTS A PICTURE OF
VERY ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH PLENTY OF SHOWERS...VERY GUSTY...IF NOT DAMAGING...
WINDS...AND IF THE TRIPLE POINT PROGNOSTIC IS ACCURATE...SEVERE
WEATHER...OR AT LEAST A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER...OVER OR VERY
CLOSE TO OUR REGION OF THE COUNTRY. HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO STILL IS
DAY 6 INTO DAY 7 OF THE FORECAST...AND THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME FOR
CHANGES IN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS TO TREND TOWARD A LESS AGGRESSIVE
SYSTEM. GIVEN THIS...WILL OFFER A FORECAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY THAT OFFERS INCREASING CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN
WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ON TUESDAY...WITH MODERATE RAIN
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.
TIMING OF THE PUSH OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION AS WELL AS THE
MAGNITUDE OF THAT COLDER AIR VARIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECWMF.
HOWEVER...THE FORECAST WILL ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR COLD
ENOUGH AIR TO REACH WESTERN...HIGHER PARTS OF THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL TREND MILDER
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY MAY BE A BIT MILDER IN THE
EAST...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE WEST AS COMPARED TO TUESDAY. ALL
DAYS OF THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1150 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

MOST OF THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE THOSE AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND
WEST OF A KBLF-KLWB LINE. THINK LWB WILL SCATTER OUT WITH ONLY A
TEMPO FOR BKN MVFR THROUGH 08Z.

MODELS FAVOR BLF LIFTING TO VFR AFTER 15Z. WINDS WILL ALSO WEAKEN
THROUGH THURSDAY.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY LOOK RELATIVELY BENIGN.

THE FRI NIGHT-SAT SYSTEM NOW HAS TRENDED WEAKER BUT WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED AS IT WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF SUB VFR
WINTRY WEATHER ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST SAT.

AVIATION INTERESTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION AS LATER
FORECASTS BECOME AVAILABLE. THIS WILL LIKELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON AIR
TRAVEL OVER THE WEEKEND...FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
CAROLINAS NORTH TO THE MID ATLANTIC.

ON THE HEELS OF THIS FRIDAY/SATURDAY SYSTEM WILL BE ANOTHER SYSTEM
TO POTENTIALLY IMPACT MAINLY THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE REGION
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
HEAD NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH SCATTERED PRECIPITATION ON
ITS WESTERN FLANKS ENTERING THE REGION. AT THIS POINT A WINTRY MIX
IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...JH/DS
AVIATION...DS/PM/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 180909
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
409 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN OVERALL DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.
HOWEVER PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF
MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES
LATER FRIDAY AND MOVE EAST...PERHAPS BRINGING A PERIOD OF LIGHT
WINTRY PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 215 AM EST THURSDAY...

OVERALL DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IN PLACE UNDER A FAST/CONFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT. HOWEVER THE DEGREE OF CLOUDS AND WHETHER OR NOT ANY
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES WILL OCCUR REMAINS IN QUESTION GIVEN THE APPROACH
OF DECENT MID LEVEL ENERGY FROM THE WEST TODAY OVERTOP VERY DRY AIR IN
PLACE. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP...WITH THIS
WAVE NOW BACK OVER THE MIDWEST...MAKING IT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BUT DO
HAVE QUITE A BIT OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS PER RH SECTIONS. LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW EXTENSIVE DRY AIR BENEATH THE MID DECK SO
DOUBTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LIGHT PRECIP EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE FAR
WESTERN SLOPES. THUS TRIMMED BACK THE GOING COVERAGE OF SPRINKLES WITH
ONLY A BRIEF MENTION FAR WEST THIS AFTERNOON. OTRW LOOKING AT INTERVALS
OF SUN EARLY...OUTSIDE LINGERING UPSLOPE LOW CLOUDS WESTERN SLOPES...
WITH A PERIOD OF MORE MID DECK CLOUDS INTO THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
BRIEF FLUX OF FAINT WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE MAY PUSH
TEMPS OVER THE SE TO AROUND 50...WHILE MOST OTHER LOCATIONS
STRUGGLE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ESPCLY IF CLOUDS ARE FASTER
TO ARRIVE WHICH COULD MEAN MORE 30S FOR HIGHS MOUNTAINS.

WAVE ALOFT PASSES EAST OVERNIGHT LEAVING WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE
AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW NOSES BACK IN LATE. THIS WILL ALSO
INTRO ANOTHER ROUND OF WEAK COLD ADVECTION ALLOWING UPSLOPE CLOUDS TO
REDEVELOP FARTHER EAST...PERHAPS REACHING THE BLUE RIDGE BY DAYBREAK.
OTRW EXPECTING SLOW CLEARING OF THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH INFILTRATION OF LOW DECK ACROSS THE FAR WEST LATE.
WENT CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MET MOS AGAIN TONIGHT FOR TEMPS PER
LINGERING GRADIENT GIVEN THE PARENT HIGH TO THE NW AND SOME CLOUDS
PERSISTING AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EST THURSDAY...

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE ON THE DRY SIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REMAINS THE MAIN
FEATURE IN OUR WEATHER PATTERN. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES...TO AROUND 50
OVER THE SOUTHSIDE AND THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT. EXPECT TO SEE
HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING DURING THE EVENING...WITH WINDS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY NORTHEASTERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD AGAINST THE
EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS. COOL AIR FLOWING IN FROM THE NORTH
AND RADIATIONAL COOLING DESPITE THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT
LOWS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.

18/00Z FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND WEAKER AND SLOWER WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AND ITS
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST FRIDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR PRECIPITATION TO ENTER THE NORTH
CAROLINA HIGHLANDS SHORTLY BEFORE DAWN ON SATURDAY. FOR THIS
MORNING`S FORECAST...STILL PRETTY CONFIDENT THAT MOST AREAS WILL SEE
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION DESPITE MODELS TRENDING TOWARD A DRIER
SYSTEM...SO WILL MAINTAIN HIGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HOWEVER...HAVE
CUT DOWN ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...WITH MOST LOCATIONS BELOW 0.25
INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION.

PRECIPITATION TYPE IS ALSO A CHALLENGE. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL START
THE NIGHT OUT DRY...WITH THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE IN THE LOWEST FEW
THOUSAND FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE HOVERING WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
EITHER SIDE OF THE FREEZING MARK...DEPENDING ON LOCATION. IF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE AREA...IT WILL CAUSE THE ATMOSPHERE TO
MOISTEN AND THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE TO COOL...MAKING IT MORE LIKELY
TO START AS SLEET OR SNOW. LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY MANAGE TO START
AS RAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SLIGHTLY WARMER EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA...BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SLEET/SNOW TOWARD DAWN. ULTIMATELY
WENT ON THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE...TRENDING MORE TOWARDS FROZEN
PRECIPITATION TO START THE EVENT. BEST BET FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
WILL BE ON THE HIGHER RIDGES...WITH UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE AND OTHER HIGHER RIDGELINES...AND LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.

PRECIPITATION WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND THE EARLY HALF
OF SATURDAY NIGHT. UNDERCUT MODEL GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES FOR
FORECAST HIGHS CONSIDERING PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IN
EAST NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. MOST PRECIPITATION WILL BE EAST OF THE
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY...WITH YET ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
BUILDING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST SUNDAY NIGHT...RADIATING MOISTURE
NORTHWARD AND INTRODUCING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN...AND POTENTIALLY
FREEZING PRECIPITATION TO THE MOUNTAINS.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST THURSDAY...

THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN BASED UPON THE VARIOUS MODELS. HOWEVER...THESE SAME
MODELS OFFER ENOUGH DIFFERENCES TO MAKE THE DETAILS OF THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER ENOUGH OF CHALLENGE THAT CONFIDENCE IN THE SPECIFICS IS NOT
HIGH.

BY MONDAY...LATEST MODELS SHOW LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST WITH ANOTHER AXIS OF PRECIP MOVING NORTH ASSOCIATED
WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING LONGWAVE
TROUGH TO THE WEST. DEPENDING UPON HOW MUCH OR LITTLE THIS SYSTEM
DEEPENS WILL CORRELATE TO HOW LONG ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
REMAINS OVER OUR REGION. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE AREA IS
ALSO A QUESTION. EACH MODEL HAS A DIFFERENT TAKE ON THE MAGNITUDE
OF THE WARM NOSE OVER OUR REGION. THE ONLY CONSISTENT ELEMENT IS
THE EXISTENCE OF A WARM NOSE. GIVEN THIS...WILL OFFER RAIN VERSUS
FREEZING RAIN FORECAST DURING MUCH OF THE MONDAY PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. HOWEVER DESPITE QUITE A BIT OF WARMING ALOFT OFF THE
LATEST 00Z EC MODEL...THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET ACROSS THE VIRGINIA HIGHLANDS AND
SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY SECTIONS ESPCLY MONDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THOUGH WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE...MAINLY
RANGING IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW WHICH MAY HAVE TO BE
RAMPED UP LATER TODAY.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OF BRINGING A
CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
FROM THAT POINT...A DEEP LONGITUDINAL TROUGH DEVELOPS SOUTH TO THE
GULF OF MEXICO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASING MOISTURE
FETCH. BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND
ECWMF CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH AND
NEGATIVELY TILT THE FEATURE SO THAT THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO OFF
THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS...COINCIDENT TO THE POSITION OF THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT....WITH THE TRIPLE POINT PASSING
SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION. THIS PAINTS A PICTURE OF
VERY ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH PLENTY OF SHOWERS...VERY GUSTY...IF NOT DAMAGING...
WINDS...AND IF THE TRIPLE POINT PROGNOSTIC IS ACCURATE...SEVERE
WEATHER...OR AT LEAST A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER...OVER OR VERY
CLOSE TO OUR REGION OF THE COUNTRY. HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO STILL IS
DAY 6 INTO DAY 7 OF THE FORECAST...AND THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME FOR
CHANGES IN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS TO TREND TOWARD A LESS AGGRESSIVE
SYSTEM. GIVEN THIS...WILL OFFER A FORECAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY THAT OFFERS INCREASING CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN
WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ON TUESDAY...WITH MODERATE RAIN
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.
TIMING OF THE PUSH OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION AS WELL AS THE
MAGNITUDE OF THAT COLDER AIR VARIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECWMF.
HOWEVER...THE FORECAST WILL ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR COLD
ENOUGH AIR TO REACH WESTERN...HIGHER PARTS OF THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL TREND MILDER
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY MAY BE A BIT MILDER IN THE
EAST...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE WEST AS COMPARED TO TUESDAY. ALL
DAYS OF THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1150 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

MOST OF THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE THOSE AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND
WEST OF A KBLF-KLWB LINE. THINK LWB WILL SCATTER OUT WITH ONLY A
TEMPO FOR BKN MVFR THROUGH 08Z.

MODELS FAVOR BLF LIFTING TO VFR AFTER 15Z. WINDS WILL ALSO WEAKEN
THROUGH THURSDAY.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY LOOK RELATIVELY BENIGN.

THE FRI NIGHT-SAT SYSTEM NOW HAS TRENDED WEAKER BUT WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED AS IT WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF SUB VFR
WINTRY WEATHER ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST SAT.

AVIATION INTERESTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION AS LATER
FORECASTS BECOME AVAILABLE. THIS WILL LIKELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON AIR
TRAVEL OVER THE WEEKEND...FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
CAROLINAS NORTH TO THE MID ATLANTIC.

ON THE HEELS OF THIS FRIDAY/SATURDAY SYSTEM WILL BE ANOTHER SYSTEM
TO POTENTIALLY IMPACT MAINLY THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE REGION
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
HEAD NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH SCATTERED PRECIPITATION ON
ITS WESTERN FLANKS ENTERING THE REGION. AT THIS POINT A WINTRY MIX
IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...JH/DS
AVIATION...DS/PM/WP



000
FXUS61 KRNK 180909
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
409 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN OVERALL DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.
HOWEVER PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF
MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES
LATER FRIDAY AND MOVE EAST...PERHAPS BRINGING A PERIOD OF LIGHT
WINTRY PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 215 AM EST THURSDAY...

OVERALL DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IN PLACE UNDER A FAST/CONFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT. HOWEVER THE DEGREE OF CLOUDS AND WHETHER OR NOT ANY
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES WILL OCCUR REMAINS IN QUESTION GIVEN THE APPROACH
OF DECENT MID LEVEL ENERGY FROM THE WEST TODAY OVERTOP VERY DRY AIR IN
PLACE. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP...WITH THIS
WAVE NOW BACK OVER THE MIDWEST...MAKING IT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BUT DO
HAVE QUITE A BIT OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS PER RH SECTIONS. LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW EXTENSIVE DRY AIR BENEATH THE MID DECK SO
DOUBTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LIGHT PRECIP EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE FAR
WESTERN SLOPES. THUS TRIMMED BACK THE GOING COVERAGE OF SPRINKLES WITH
ONLY A BRIEF MENTION FAR WEST THIS AFTERNOON. OTRW LOOKING AT INTERVALS
OF SUN EARLY...OUTSIDE LINGERING UPSLOPE LOW CLOUDS WESTERN SLOPES...
WITH A PERIOD OF MORE MID DECK CLOUDS INTO THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
BRIEF FLUX OF FAINT WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE MAY PUSH
TEMPS OVER THE SE TO AROUND 50...WHILE MOST OTHER LOCATIONS
STRUGGLE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ESPCLY IF CLOUDS ARE FASTER
TO ARRIVE WHICH COULD MEAN MORE 30S FOR HIGHS MOUNTAINS.

WAVE ALOFT PASSES EAST OVERNIGHT LEAVING WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE
AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW NOSES BACK IN LATE. THIS WILL ALSO
INTRO ANOTHER ROUND OF WEAK COLD ADVECTION ALLOWING UPSLOPE CLOUDS TO
REDEVELOP FARTHER EAST...PERHAPS REACHING THE BLUE RIDGE BY DAYBREAK.
OTRW EXPECTING SLOW CLEARING OF THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH INFILTRATION OF LOW DECK ACROSS THE FAR WEST LATE.
WENT CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MET MOS AGAIN TONIGHT FOR TEMPS PER
LINGERING GRADIENT GIVEN THE PARENT HIGH TO THE NW AND SOME CLOUDS
PERSISTING AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EST THURSDAY...

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE ON THE DRY SIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REMAINS THE MAIN
FEATURE IN OUR WEATHER PATTERN. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES...TO AROUND 50
OVER THE SOUTHSIDE AND THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT. EXPECT TO SEE
HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING DURING THE EVENING...WITH WINDS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY NORTHEASTERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD AGAINST THE
EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS. COOL AIR FLOWING IN FROM THE NORTH
AND RADIATIONAL COOLING DESPITE THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT
LOWS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.

18/00Z FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND WEAKER AND SLOWER WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AND ITS
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST FRIDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR PRECIPITATION TO ENTER THE NORTH
CAROLINA HIGHLANDS SHORTLY BEFORE DAWN ON SATURDAY. FOR THIS
MORNING`S FORECAST...STILL PRETTY CONFIDENT THAT MOST AREAS WILL SEE
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION DESPITE MODELS TRENDING TOWARD A DRIER
SYSTEM...SO WILL MAINTAIN HIGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HOWEVER...HAVE
CUT DOWN ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...WITH MOST LOCATIONS BELOW 0.25
INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION.

PRECIPITATION TYPE IS ALSO A CHALLENGE. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL START
THE NIGHT OUT DRY...WITH THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE IN THE LOWEST FEW
THOUSAND FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE HOVERING WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
EITHER SIDE OF THE FREEZING MARK...DEPENDING ON LOCATION. IF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE AREA...IT WILL CAUSE THE ATMOSPHERE TO
MOISTEN AND THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE TO COOL...MAKING IT MORE LIKELY
TO START AS SLEET OR SNOW. LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY MANAGE TO START
AS RAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SLIGHTLY WARMER EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA...BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SLEET/SNOW TOWARD DAWN. ULTIMATELY
WENT ON THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE...TRENDING MORE TOWARDS FROZEN
PRECIPITATION TO START THE EVENT. BEST BET FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
WILL BE ON THE HIGHER RIDGES...WITH UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE AND OTHER HIGHER RIDGELINES...AND LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.

PRECIPITATION WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND THE EARLY HALF
OF SATURDAY NIGHT. UNDERCUT MODEL GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES FOR
FORECAST HIGHS CONSIDERING PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IN
EAST NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. MOST PRECIPITATION WILL BE EAST OF THE
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY...WITH YET ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
BUILDING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST SUNDAY NIGHT...RADIATING MOISTURE
NORTHWARD AND INTRODUCING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN...AND POTENTIALLY
FREEZING PRECIPITATION TO THE MOUNTAINS.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST THURSDAY...

THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN BASED UPON THE VARIOUS MODELS. HOWEVER...THESE SAME
MODELS OFFER ENOUGH DIFFERENCES TO MAKE THE DETAILS OF THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER ENOUGH OF CHALLENGE THAT CONFIDENCE IN THE SPECIFICS IS NOT
HIGH.

BY MONDAY...LATEST MODELS SHOW LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST WITH ANOTHER AXIS OF PRECIP MOVING NORTH ASSOCIATED
WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING LONGWAVE
TROUGH TO THE WEST. DEPENDING UPON HOW MUCH OR LITTLE THIS SYSTEM
DEEPENS WILL CORRELATE TO HOW LONG ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
REMAINS OVER OUR REGION. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE AREA IS
ALSO A QUESTION. EACH MODEL HAS A DIFFERENT TAKE ON THE MAGNITUDE
OF THE WARM NOSE OVER OUR REGION. THE ONLY CONSISTENT ELEMENT IS
THE EXISTENCE OF A WARM NOSE. GIVEN THIS...WILL OFFER RAIN VERSUS
FREEZING RAIN FORECAST DURING MUCH OF THE MONDAY PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. HOWEVER DESPITE QUITE A BIT OF WARMING ALOFT OFF THE
LATEST 00Z EC MODEL...THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET ACROSS THE VIRGINIA HIGHLANDS AND
SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY SECTIONS ESPCLY MONDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THOUGH WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE...MAINLY
RANGING IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW WHICH MAY HAVE TO BE
RAMPED UP LATER TODAY.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OF BRINGING A
CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
FROM THAT POINT...A DEEP LONGITUDINAL TROUGH DEVELOPS SOUTH TO THE
GULF OF MEXICO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASING MOISTURE
FETCH. BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND
ECWMF CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH AND
NEGATIVELY TILT THE FEATURE SO THAT THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO OFF
THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS...COINCIDENT TO THE POSITION OF THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT....WITH THE TRIPLE POINT PASSING
SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION. THIS PAINTS A PICTURE OF
VERY ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH PLENTY OF SHOWERS...VERY GUSTY...IF NOT DAMAGING...
WINDS...AND IF THE TRIPLE POINT PROGNOSTIC IS ACCURATE...SEVERE
WEATHER...OR AT LEAST A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER...OVER OR VERY
CLOSE TO OUR REGION OF THE COUNTRY. HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO STILL IS
DAY 6 INTO DAY 7 OF THE FORECAST...AND THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME FOR
CHANGES IN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS TO TREND TOWARD A LESS AGGRESSIVE
SYSTEM. GIVEN THIS...WILL OFFER A FORECAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY THAT OFFERS INCREASING CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN
WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ON TUESDAY...WITH MODERATE RAIN
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.
TIMING OF THE PUSH OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION AS WELL AS THE
MAGNITUDE OF THAT COLDER AIR VARIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECWMF.
HOWEVER...THE FORECAST WILL ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR COLD
ENOUGH AIR TO REACH WESTERN...HIGHER PARTS OF THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL TREND MILDER
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY MAY BE A BIT MILDER IN THE
EAST...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE WEST AS COMPARED TO TUESDAY. ALL
DAYS OF THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1150 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

MOST OF THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE THOSE AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND
WEST OF A KBLF-KLWB LINE. THINK LWB WILL SCATTER OUT WITH ONLY A
TEMPO FOR BKN MVFR THROUGH 08Z.

MODELS FAVOR BLF LIFTING TO VFR AFTER 15Z. WINDS WILL ALSO WEAKEN
THROUGH THURSDAY.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY LOOK RELATIVELY BENIGN.

THE FRI NIGHT-SAT SYSTEM NOW HAS TRENDED WEAKER BUT WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED AS IT WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF SUB VFR
WINTRY WEATHER ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST SAT.

AVIATION INTERESTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION AS LATER
FORECASTS BECOME AVAILABLE. THIS WILL LIKELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON AIR
TRAVEL OVER THE WEEKEND...FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
CAROLINAS NORTH TO THE MID ATLANTIC.

ON THE HEELS OF THIS FRIDAY/SATURDAY SYSTEM WILL BE ANOTHER SYSTEM
TO POTENTIALLY IMPACT MAINLY THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE REGION
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
HEAD NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH SCATTERED PRECIPITATION ON
ITS WESTERN FLANKS ENTERING THE REGION. AT THIS POINT A WINTRY MIX
IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...JH/DS
AVIATION...DS/PM/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 180909
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
409 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN OVERALL DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.
HOWEVER PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF
MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES
LATER FRIDAY AND MOVE EAST...PERHAPS BRINGING A PERIOD OF LIGHT
WINTRY PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 215 AM EST THURSDAY...

OVERALL DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IN PLACE UNDER A FAST/CONFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT. HOWEVER THE DEGREE OF CLOUDS AND WHETHER OR NOT ANY
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES WILL OCCUR REMAINS IN QUESTION GIVEN THE APPROACH
OF DECENT MID LEVEL ENERGY FROM THE WEST TODAY OVERTOP VERY DRY AIR IN
PLACE. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP...WITH THIS
WAVE NOW BACK OVER THE MIDWEST...MAKING IT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BUT DO
HAVE QUITE A BIT OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS PER RH SECTIONS. LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW EXTENSIVE DRY AIR BENEATH THE MID DECK SO
DOUBTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LIGHT PRECIP EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE FAR
WESTERN SLOPES. THUS TRIMMED BACK THE GOING COVERAGE OF SPRINKLES WITH
ONLY A BRIEF MENTION FAR WEST THIS AFTERNOON. OTRW LOOKING AT INTERVALS
OF SUN EARLY...OUTSIDE LINGERING UPSLOPE LOW CLOUDS WESTERN SLOPES...
WITH A PERIOD OF MORE MID DECK CLOUDS INTO THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
BRIEF FLUX OF FAINT WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE MAY PUSH
TEMPS OVER THE SE TO AROUND 50...WHILE MOST OTHER LOCATIONS
STRUGGLE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ESPCLY IF CLOUDS ARE FASTER
TO ARRIVE WHICH COULD MEAN MORE 30S FOR HIGHS MOUNTAINS.

WAVE ALOFT PASSES EAST OVERNIGHT LEAVING WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE
AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW NOSES BACK IN LATE. THIS WILL ALSO
INTRO ANOTHER ROUND OF WEAK COLD ADVECTION ALLOWING UPSLOPE CLOUDS TO
REDEVELOP FARTHER EAST...PERHAPS REACHING THE BLUE RIDGE BY DAYBREAK.
OTRW EXPECTING SLOW CLEARING OF THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH INFILTRATION OF LOW DECK ACROSS THE FAR WEST LATE.
WENT CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MET MOS AGAIN TONIGHT FOR TEMPS PER
LINGERING GRADIENT GIVEN THE PARENT HIGH TO THE NW AND SOME CLOUDS
PERSISTING AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EST THURSDAY...

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE ON THE DRY SIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REMAINS THE MAIN
FEATURE IN OUR WEATHER PATTERN. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES...TO AROUND 50
OVER THE SOUTHSIDE AND THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT. EXPECT TO SEE
HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING DURING THE EVENING...WITH WINDS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY NORTHEASTERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD AGAINST THE
EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS. COOL AIR FLOWING IN FROM THE NORTH
AND RADIATIONAL COOLING DESPITE THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT
LOWS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.

18/00Z FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND WEAKER AND SLOWER WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AND ITS
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST FRIDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR PRECIPITATION TO ENTER THE NORTH
CAROLINA HIGHLANDS SHORTLY BEFORE DAWN ON SATURDAY. FOR THIS
MORNING`S FORECAST...STILL PRETTY CONFIDENT THAT MOST AREAS WILL SEE
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION DESPITE MODELS TRENDING TOWARD A DRIER
SYSTEM...SO WILL MAINTAIN HIGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HOWEVER...HAVE
CUT DOWN ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...WITH MOST LOCATIONS BELOW 0.25
INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION.

PRECIPITATION TYPE IS ALSO A CHALLENGE. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL START
THE NIGHT OUT DRY...WITH THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE IN THE LOWEST FEW
THOUSAND FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE HOVERING WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
EITHER SIDE OF THE FREEZING MARK...DEPENDING ON LOCATION. IF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE AREA...IT WILL CAUSE THE ATMOSPHERE TO
MOISTEN AND THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE TO COOL...MAKING IT MORE LIKELY
TO START AS SLEET OR SNOW. LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY MANAGE TO START
AS RAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SLIGHTLY WARMER EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA...BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SLEET/SNOW TOWARD DAWN. ULTIMATELY
WENT ON THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE...TRENDING MORE TOWARDS FROZEN
PRECIPITATION TO START THE EVENT. BEST BET FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
WILL BE ON THE HIGHER RIDGES...WITH UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE AND OTHER HIGHER RIDGELINES...AND LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.

PRECIPITATION WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND THE EARLY HALF
OF SATURDAY NIGHT. UNDERCUT MODEL GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES FOR
FORECAST HIGHS CONSIDERING PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IN
EAST NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. MOST PRECIPITATION WILL BE EAST OF THE
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY...WITH YET ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
BUILDING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST SUNDAY NIGHT...RADIATING MOISTURE
NORTHWARD AND INTRODUCING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN...AND POTENTIALLY
FREEZING PRECIPITATION TO THE MOUNTAINS.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST THURSDAY...

THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN BASED UPON THE VARIOUS MODELS. HOWEVER...THESE SAME
MODELS OFFER ENOUGH DIFFERENCES TO MAKE THE DETAILS OF THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER ENOUGH OF CHALLENGE THAT CONFIDENCE IN THE SPECIFICS IS NOT
HIGH.

BY MONDAY...LATEST MODELS SHOW LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST WITH ANOTHER AXIS OF PRECIP MOVING NORTH ASSOCIATED
WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING LONGWAVE
TROUGH TO THE WEST. DEPENDING UPON HOW MUCH OR LITTLE THIS SYSTEM
DEEPENS WILL CORRELATE TO HOW LONG ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
REMAINS OVER OUR REGION. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE AREA IS
ALSO A QUESTION. EACH MODEL HAS A DIFFERENT TAKE ON THE MAGNITUDE
OF THE WARM NOSE OVER OUR REGION. THE ONLY CONSISTENT ELEMENT IS
THE EXISTENCE OF A WARM NOSE. GIVEN THIS...WILL OFFER RAIN VERSUS
FREEZING RAIN FORECAST DURING MUCH OF THE MONDAY PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. HOWEVER DESPITE QUITE A BIT OF WARMING ALOFT OFF THE
LATEST 00Z EC MODEL...THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET ACROSS THE VIRGINIA HIGHLANDS AND
SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY SECTIONS ESPCLY MONDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THOUGH WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE...MAINLY
RANGING IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW WHICH MAY HAVE TO BE
RAMPED UP LATER TODAY.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OF BRINGING A
CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
FROM THAT POINT...A DEEP LONGITUDINAL TROUGH DEVELOPS SOUTH TO THE
GULF OF MEXICO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASING MOISTURE
FETCH. BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND
ECWMF CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH AND
NEGATIVELY TILT THE FEATURE SO THAT THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO OFF
THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS...COINCIDENT TO THE POSITION OF THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT....WITH THE TRIPLE POINT PASSING
SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION. THIS PAINTS A PICTURE OF
VERY ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH PLENTY OF SHOWERS...VERY GUSTY...IF NOT DAMAGING...
WINDS...AND IF THE TRIPLE POINT PROGNOSTIC IS ACCURATE...SEVERE
WEATHER...OR AT LEAST A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER...OVER OR VERY
CLOSE TO OUR REGION OF THE COUNTRY. HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO STILL IS
DAY 6 INTO DAY 7 OF THE FORECAST...AND THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME FOR
CHANGES IN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS TO TREND TOWARD A LESS AGGRESSIVE
SYSTEM. GIVEN THIS...WILL OFFER A FORECAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY THAT OFFERS INCREASING CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN
WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ON TUESDAY...WITH MODERATE RAIN
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.
TIMING OF THE PUSH OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION AS WELL AS THE
MAGNITUDE OF THAT COLDER AIR VARIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECWMF.
HOWEVER...THE FORECAST WILL ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR COLD
ENOUGH AIR TO REACH WESTERN...HIGHER PARTS OF THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL TREND MILDER
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY MAY BE A BIT MILDER IN THE
EAST...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE WEST AS COMPARED TO TUESDAY. ALL
DAYS OF THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1150 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

MOST OF THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE THOSE AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND
WEST OF A KBLF-KLWB LINE. THINK LWB WILL SCATTER OUT WITH ONLY A
TEMPO FOR BKN MVFR THROUGH 08Z.

MODELS FAVOR BLF LIFTING TO VFR AFTER 15Z. WINDS WILL ALSO WEAKEN
THROUGH THURSDAY.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY LOOK RELATIVELY BENIGN.

THE FRI NIGHT-SAT SYSTEM NOW HAS TRENDED WEAKER BUT WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED AS IT WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF SUB VFR
WINTRY WEATHER ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST SAT.

AVIATION INTERESTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION AS LATER
FORECASTS BECOME AVAILABLE. THIS WILL LIKELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON AIR
TRAVEL OVER THE WEEKEND...FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
CAROLINAS NORTH TO THE MID ATLANTIC.

ON THE HEELS OF THIS FRIDAY/SATURDAY SYSTEM WILL BE ANOTHER SYSTEM
TO POTENTIALLY IMPACT MAINLY THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE REGION
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
HEAD NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH SCATTERED PRECIPITATION ON
ITS WESTERN FLANKS ENTERING THE REGION. AT THIS POINT A WINTRY MIX
IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...JH/DS
AVIATION...DS/PM/WP



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 180859
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
359 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
FRIDAY. ONE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF COAST
STATES EAST NORTHEAST TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY MORNING
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS ~995 MB LO PRES OVR NOVA SCOTIA WITH
BROAD ~1029 HI PRES OVR THE NRN PLAINS AND MIDWEST STATES. A WEAK
SFC TROF DROPPED THRU THE MID ATLANTIC THIS MORNG...WITH DRIER NW
FLOW BEHIND THE FRNT PREVENTING ANY FOG FORMATION UNLIKE THE PAST
COUPLE NIGHTS. THE HI WILL SPREAD E INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TDA
ALLOWING FOR THE DRY CONDS TO CONTINUE. OTWS...EXPECT A
PRTLY/MSTLY SUNNY SKY WITH TEMPS ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPR
40S WITH WEAK CAA OVR THE AREA.

DRY WX CONTINUES TNGT WITH A MID-LEVEL S/W TROF PASSING N OF THE
AREA. THE MID ATLANTIC REMAINS INFLUENCED BY SFC HI PRES CENTERED
OVR THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY. EXPECT LIGHT NW WINDS...A PRTLY COUDY
SKY...AND LO TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR 20S TO LWR 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HI PRES SLIDES E THRU THE OH VALLEY AND NE STATES FRI INTO FRI
NIGHT WITH DRY CONDS OVR THE MID ATLANTIC. HI TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPR 40S FRI WITH LO TEMPS FRI NIGHT IN THE UPR 20 TO LWR
30S...AND INCREASING CLOUDS LATE. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SFC LO
PRES DEVELOPING OVR THE GOM. ALL 00Z GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED THE NRN
ADVANCEMENT OF PCPN SAT FARTHER S AND DELAYED THE TIMING...SO
ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. MODEL THICKNESSES SHOW THE POTENTIAL
FOR SLEET TO MIX IN OVR THE PIEDMONT AT THE ONSET...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO PLAIN RAIN. POPS SAT AFTN RANGE FM 20% FAR N...TO
40% AROUND RIC...TO 70% FAR S. PCPN (MAINLY RAIN BUT SNOW PSBLY
MIXED IN) WILL END QUICKLY SAT NIGHT WITH THE UPR-LEVEL FLOW BEING
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND THE SFC LO WEAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NW SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL TO AROUND 30 NW TO THE
UPPER 30S SE. HOWEVER...ANY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOULD END PRIOR TO
ANY SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AOB 32F. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD PREVAIL SUNDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER LOW FORMS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AND TRACKS NE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME
TEMPERATURES APPEAR WARM ENOUGH FOR ONLY RAIN. HOWEVER...THERE
COULD BE A BRIEF MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT
SUNDAY NIGHT. MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH
MILDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITION THROUGH THE FCST PRD WITH ONLY BKN CIRRUS CLOUDS
XPCTD. WNDS WILL OR SHORTLY SHFT TO THE NORTH (AOB 10 KTS) AS TROF
MOVES EASTA CROSS THE RGN.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES FRIDAY. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY WITH A CHC FOR IFR
CNDTNS IN LGHT RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA
SUNDAY BUT EASTERLY FLOW COULD MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL KEEP SCA GOING THRU THE LATE MORNING HRS AS FIRST CAA SURGE
WORKS IT WAY THROUGH THE WATERS. ANTHR WEAKER NRLY SURGE SEEN
TONIGHT AS A SCNDRY TROF CROSSES THE RGN...BUT WILL CAP WINDS AT
15 KTS FOR NOW. OTW...N-NE FLOW CONTINUES BLO SCA LVLS INTO THE
WEEKEND.

LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO TRACK ENE TO IMMEDIATELY OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW TRACKS
NE OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO
SPECULATE ON THE POTENTIAL OF SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS/TMG
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAS/AJZ
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 180859
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
359 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
FRIDAY. ONE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF COAST
STATES EAST NORTHEAST TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY MORNING
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS ~995 MB LO PRES OVR NOVA SCOTIA WITH
BROAD ~1029 HI PRES OVR THE NRN PLAINS AND MIDWEST STATES. A WEAK
SFC TROF DROPPED THRU THE MID ATLANTIC THIS MORNG...WITH DRIER NW
FLOW BEHIND THE FRNT PREVENTING ANY FOG FORMATION UNLIKE THE PAST
COUPLE NIGHTS. THE HI WILL SPREAD E INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TDA
ALLOWING FOR THE DRY CONDS TO CONTINUE. OTWS...EXPECT A
PRTLY/MSTLY SUNNY SKY WITH TEMPS ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPR
40S WITH WEAK CAA OVR THE AREA.

DRY WX CONTINUES TNGT WITH A MID-LEVEL S/W TROF PASSING N OF THE
AREA. THE MID ATLANTIC REMAINS INFLUENCED BY SFC HI PRES CENTERED
OVR THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY. EXPECT LIGHT NW WINDS...A PRTLY COUDY
SKY...AND LO TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR 20S TO LWR 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HI PRES SLIDES E THRU THE OH VALLEY AND NE STATES FRI INTO FRI
NIGHT WITH DRY CONDS OVR THE MID ATLANTIC. HI TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPR 40S FRI WITH LO TEMPS FRI NIGHT IN THE UPR 20 TO LWR
30S...AND INCREASING CLOUDS LATE. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SFC LO
PRES DEVELOPING OVR THE GOM. ALL 00Z GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED THE NRN
ADVANCEMENT OF PCPN SAT FARTHER S AND DELAYED THE TIMING...SO
ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. MODEL THICKNESSES SHOW THE POTENTIAL
FOR SLEET TO MIX IN OVR THE PIEDMONT AT THE ONSET...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO PLAIN RAIN. POPS SAT AFTN RANGE FM 20% FAR N...TO
40% AROUND RIC...TO 70% FAR S. PCPN (MAINLY RAIN BUT SNOW PSBLY
MIXED IN) WILL END QUICKLY SAT NIGHT WITH THE UPR-LEVEL FLOW BEING
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND THE SFC LO WEAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NW SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL TO AROUND 30 NW TO THE
UPPER 30S SE. HOWEVER...ANY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOULD END PRIOR TO
ANY SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AOB 32F. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD PREVAIL SUNDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER LOW FORMS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AND TRACKS NE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME
TEMPERATURES APPEAR WARM ENOUGH FOR ONLY RAIN. HOWEVER...THERE
COULD BE A BRIEF MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT
SUNDAY NIGHT. MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH
MILDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITION THROUGH THE FCST PRD WITH ONLY BKN CIRRUS CLOUDS
XPCTD. WNDS WILL OR SHORTLY SHFT TO THE NORTH (AOB 10 KTS) AS TROF
MOVES EASTA CROSS THE RGN.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES FRIDAY. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY WITH A CHC FOR IFR
CNDTNS IN LGHT RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA
SUNDAY BUT EASTERLY FLOW COULD MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL KEEP SCA GOING THRU THE LATE MORNING HRS AS FIRST CAA SURGE
WORKS IT WAY THROUGH THE WATERS. ANTHR WEAKER NRLY SURGE SEEN
TONIGHT AS A SCNDRY TROF CROSSES THE RGN...BUT WILL CAP WINDS AT
15 KTS FOR NOW. OTW...N-NE FLOW CONTINUES BLO SCA LVLS INTO THE
WEEKEND.

LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO TRACK ENE TO IMMEDIATELY OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW TRACKS
NE OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO
SPECULATE ON THE POTENTIAL OF SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS/TMG
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAS/AJZ
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 180859
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
359 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
FRIDAY. ONE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF COAST
STATES EAST NORTHEAST TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY MORNING
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS ~995 MB LO PRES OVR NOVA SCOTIA WITH
BROAD ~1029 HI PRES OVR THE NRN PLAINS AND MIDWEST STATES. A WEAK
SFC TROF DROPPED THRU THE MID ATLANTIC THIS MORNG...WITH DRIER NW
FLOW BEHIND THE FRNT PREVENTING ANY FOG FORMATION UNLIKE THE PAST
COUPLE NIGHTS. THE HI WILL SPREAD E INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TDA
ALLOWING FOR THE DRY CONDS TO CONTINUE. OTWS...EXPECT A
PRTLY/MSTLY SUNNY SKY WITH TEMPS ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPR
40S WITH WEAK CAA OVR THE AREA.

DRY WX CONTINUES TNGT WITH A MID-LEVEL S/W TROF PASSING N OF THE
AREA. THE MID ATLANTIC REMAINS INFLUENCED BY SFC HI PRES CENTERED
OVR THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY. EXPECT LIGHT NW WINDS...A PRTLY COUDY
SKY...AND LO TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR 20S TO LWR 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HI PRES SLIDES E THRU THE OH VALLEY AND NE STATES FRI INTO FRI
NIGHT WITH DRY CONDS OVR THE MID ATLANTIC. HI TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPR 40S FRI WITH LO TEMPS FRI NIGHT IN THE UPR 20 TO LWR
30S...AND INCREASING CLOUDS LATE. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SFC LO
PRES DEVELOPING OVR THE GOM. ALL 00Z GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED THE NRN
ADVANCEMENT OF PCPN SAT FARTHER S AND DELAYED THE TIMING...SO
ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. MODEL THICKNESSES SHOW THE POTENTIAL
FOR SLEET TO MIX IN OVR THE PIEDMONT AT THE ONSET...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO PLAIN RAIN. POPS SAT AFTN RANGE FM 20% FAR N...TO
40% AROUND RIC...TO 70% FAR S. PCPN (MAINLY RAIN BUT SNOW PSBLY
MIXED IN) WILL END QUICKLY SAT NIGHT WITH THE UPR-LEVEL FLOW BEING
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND THE SFC LO WEAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NW SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL TO AROUND 30 NW TO THE
UPPER 30S SE. HOWEVER...ANY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOULD END PRIOR TO
ANY SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AOB 32F. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD PREVAIL SUNDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER LOW FORMS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AND TRACKS NE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME
TEMPERATURES APPEAR WARM ENOUGH FOR ONLY RAIN. HOWEVER...THERE
COULD BE A BRIEF MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT
SUNDAY NIGHT. MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH
MILDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITION THROUGH THE FCST PRD WITH ONLY BKN CIRRUS CLOUDS
XPCTD. WNDS WILL OR SHORTLY SHFT TO THE NORTH (AOB 10 KTS) AS TROF
MOVES EASTA CROSS THE RGN.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES FRIDAY. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY WITH A CHC FOR IFR
CNDTNS IN LGHT RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA
SUNDAY BUT EASTERLY FLOW COULD MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL KEEP SCA GOING THRU THE LATE MORNING HRS AS FIRST CAA SURGE
WORKS IT WAY THROUGH THE WATERS. ANTHR WEAKER NRLY SURGE SEEN
TONIGHT AS A SCNDRY TROF CROSSES THE RGN...BUT WILL CAP WINDS AT
15 KTS FOR NOW. OTW...N-NE FLOW CONTINUES BLO SCA LVLS INTO THE
WEEKEND.

LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO TRACK ENE TO IMMEDIATELY OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW TRACKS
NE OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO
SPECULATE ON THE POTENTIAL OF SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS/TMG
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAS/AJZ
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 180859
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
359 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
FRIDAY. ONE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF COAST
STATES EAST NORTHEAST TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY MORNING
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS ~995 MB LO PRES OVR NOVA SCOTIA WITH
BROAD ~1029 HI PRES OVR THE NRN PLAINS AND MIDWEST STATES. A WEAK
SFC TROF DROPPED THRU THE MID ATLANTIC THIS MORNG...WITH DRIER NW
FLOW BEHIND THE FRNT PREVENTING ANY FOG FORMATION UNLIKE THE PAST
COUPLE NIGHTS. THE HI WILL SPREAD E INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TDA
ALLOWING FOR THE DRY CONDS TO CONTINUE. OTWS...EXPECT A
PRTLY/MSTLY SUNNY SKY WITH TEMPS ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPR
40S WITH WEAK CAA OVR THE AREA.

DRY WX CONTINUES TNGT WITH A MID-LEVEL S/W TROF PASSING N OF THE
AREA. THE MID ATLANTIC REMAINS INFLUENCED BY SFC HI PRES CENTERED
OVR THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY. EXPECT LIGHT NW WINDS...A PRTLY COUDY
SKY...AND LO TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR 20S TO LWR 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HI PRES SLIDES E THRU THE OH VALLEY AND NE STATES FRI INTO FRI
NIGHT WITH DRY CONDS OVR THE MID ATLANTIC. HI TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPR 40S FRI WITH LO TEMPS FRI NIGHT IN THE UPR 20 TO LWR
30S...AND INCREASING CLOUDS LATE. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SFC LO
PRES DEVELOPING OVR THE GOM. ALL 00Z GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED THE NRN
ADVANCEMENT OF PCPN SAT FARTHER S AND DELAYED THE TIMING...SO
ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. MODEL THICKNESSES SHOW THE POTENTIAL
FOR SLEET TO MIX IN OVR THE PIEDMONT AT THE ONSET...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO PLAIN RAIN. POPS SAT AFTN RANGE FM 20% FAR N...TO
40% AROUND RIC...TO 70% FAR S. PCPN (MAINLY RAIN BUT SNOW PSBLY
MIXED IN) WILL END QUICKLY SAT NIGHT WITH THE UPR-LEVEL FLOW BEING
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND THE SFC LO WEAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NW SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL TO AROUND 30 NW TO THE
UPPER 30S SE. HOWEVER...ANY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOULD END PRIOR TO
ANY SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AOB 32F. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD PREVAIL SUNDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER LOW FORMS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AND TRACKS NE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME
TEMPERATURES APPEAR WARM ENOUGH FOR ONLY RAIN. HOWEVER...THERE
COULD BE A BRIEF MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT
SUNDAY NIGHT. MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH
MILDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITION THROUGH THE FCST PRD WITH ONLY BKN CIRRUS CLOUDS
XPCTD. WNDS WILL OR SHORTLY SHFT TO THE NORTH (AOB 10 KTS) AS TROF
MOVES EASTA CROSS THE RGN.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES FRIDAY. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY WITH A CHC FOR IFR
CNDTNS IN LGHT RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA
SUNDAY BUT EASTERLY FLOW COULD MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL KEEP SCA GOING THRU THE LATE MORNING HRS AS FIRST CAA SURGE
WORKS IT WAY THROUGH THE WATERS. ANTHR WEAKER NRLY SURGE SEEN
TONIGHT AS A SCNDRY TROF CROSSES THE RGN...BUT WILL CAP WINDS AT
15 KTS FOR NOW. OTW...N-NE FLOW CONTINUES BLO SCA LVLS INTO THE
WEEKEND.

LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO TRACK ENE TO IMMEDIATELY OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW TRACKS
NE OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO
SPECULATE ON THE POTENTIAL OF SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS/TMG
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAS/AJZ
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 180859
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
359 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
FRIDAY. ONE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF COAST
STATES EAST NORTHEAST TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY MORNING
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS ~995 MB LO PRES OVR NOVA SCOTIA WITH
BROAD ~1029 HI PRES OVR THE NRN PLAINS AND MIDWEST STATES. A WEAK
SFC TROF DROPPED THRU THE MID ATLANTIC THIS MORNG...WITH DRIER NW
FLOW BEHIND THE FRNT PREVENTING ANY FOG FORMATION UNLIKE THE PAST
COUPLE NIGHTS. THE HI WILL SPREAD E INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TDA
ALLOWING FOR THE DRY CONDS TO CONTINUE. OTWS...EXPECT A
PRTLY/MSTLY SUNNY SKY WITH TEMPS ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPR
40S WITH WEAK CAA OVR THE AREA.

DRY WX CONTINUES TNGT WITH A MID-LEVEL S/W TROF PASSING N OF THE
AREA. THE MID ATLANTIC REMAINS INFLUENCED BY SFC HI PRES CENTERED
OVR THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY. EXPECT LIGHT NW WINDS...A PRTLY COUDY
SKY...AND LO TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR 20S TO LWR 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HI PRES SLIDES E THRU THE OH VALLEY AND NE STATES FRI INTO FRI
NIGHT WITH DRY CONDS OVR THE MID ATLANTIC. HI TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPR 40S FRI WITH LO TEMPS FRI NIGHT IN THE UPR 20 TO LWR
30S...AND INCREASING CLOUDS LATE. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SFC LO
PRES DEVELOPING OVR THE GOM. ALL 00Z GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED THE NRN
ADVANCEMENT OF PCPN SAT FARTHER S AND DELAYED THE TIMING...SO
ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. MODEL THICKNESSES SHOW THE POTENTIAL
FOR SLEET TO MIX IN OVR THE PIEDMONT AT THE ONSET...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO PLAIN RAIN. POPS SAT AFTN RANGE FM 20% FAR N...TO
40% AROUND RIC...TO 70% FAR S. PCPN (MAINLY RAIN BUT SNOW PSBLY
MIXED IN) WILL END QUICKLY SAT NIGHT WITH THE UPR-LEVEL FLOW BEING
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND THE SFC LO WEAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NW SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL TO AROUND 30 NW TO THE
UPPER 30S SE. HOWEVER...ANY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOULD END PRIOR TO
ANY SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AOB 32F. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD PREVAIL SUNDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER LOW FORMS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AND TRACKS NE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME
TEMPERATURES APPEAR WARM ENOUGH FOR ONLY RAIN. HOWEVER...THERE
COULD BE A BRIEF MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT
SUNDAY NIGHT. MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH
MILDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITION THROUGH THE FCST PRD WITH ONLY BKN CIRRUS CLOUDS
XPCTD. WNDS WILL OR SHORTLY SHFT TO THE NORTH (AOB 10 KTS) AS TROF
MOVES EASTA CROSS THE RGN.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES FRIDAY. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY WITH A CHC FOR IFR
CNDTNS IN LGHT RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA
SUNDAY BUT EASTERLY FLOW COULD MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL KEEP SCA GOING THRU THE LATE MORNING HRS AS FIRST CAA SURGE
WORKS IT WAY THROUGH THE WATERS. ANTHR WEAKER NRLY SURGE SEEN
TONIGHT AS A SCNDRY TROF CROSSES THE RGN...BUT WILL CAP WINDS AT
15 KTS FOR NOW. OTW...N-NE FLOW CONTINUES BLO SCA LVLS INTO THE
WEEKEND.

LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO TRACK ENE TO IMMEDIATELY OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW TRACKS
NE OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO
SPECULATE ON THE POTENTIAL OF SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS/TMG
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAS/AJZ
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 180859
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
359 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
FRIDAY. ONE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF COAST
STATES EAST NORTHEAST TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY MORNING
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS ~995 MB LO PRES OVR NOVA SCOTIA WITH
BROAD ~1029 HI PRES OVR THE NRN PLAINS AND MIDWEST STATES. A WEAK
SFC TROF DROPPED THRU THE MID ATLANTIC THIS MORNG...WITH DRIER NW
FLOW BEHIND THE FRNT PREVENTING ANY FOG FORMATION UNLIKE THE PAST
COUPLE NIGHTS. THE HI WILL SPREAD E INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TDA
ALLOWING FOR THE DRY CONDS TO CONTINUE. OTWS...EXPECT A
PRTLY/MSTLY SUNNY SKY WITH TEMPS ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPR
40S WITH WEAK CAA OVR THE AREA.

DRY WX CONTINUES TNGT WITH A MID-LEVEL S/W TROF PASSING N OF THE
AREA. THE MID ATLANTIC REMAINS INFLUENCED BY SFC HI PRES CENTERED
OVR THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY. EXPECT LIGHT NW WINDS...A PRTLY COUDY
SKY...AND LO TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR 20S TO LWR 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HI PRES SLIDES E THRU THE OH VALLEY AND NE STATES FRI INTO FRI
NIGHT WITH DRY CONDS OVR THE MID ATLANTIC. HI TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPR 40S FRI WITH LO TEMPS FRI NIGHT IN THE UPR 20 TO LWR
30S...AND INCREASING CLOUDS LATE. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SFC LO
PRES DEVELOPING OVR THE GOM. ALL 00Z GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED THE NRN
ADVANCEMENT OF PCPN SAT FARTHER S AND DELAYED THE TIMING...SO
ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. MODEL THICKNESSES SHOW THE POTENTIAL
FOR SLEET TO MIX IN OVR THE PIEDMONT AT THE ONSET...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO PLAIN RAIN. POPS SAT AFTN RANGE FM 20% FAR N...TO
40% AROUND RIC...TO 70% FAR S. PCPN (MAINLY RAIN BUT SNOW PSBLY
MIXED IN) WILL END QUICKLY SAT NIGHT WITH THE UPR-LEVEL FLOW BEING
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND THE SFC LO WEAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NW SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL TO AROUND 30 NW TO THE
UPPER 30S SE. HOWEVER...ANY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOULD END PRIOR TO
ANY SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AOB 32F. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD PREVAIL SUNDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER LOW FORMS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AND TRACKS NE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME
TEMPERATURES APPEAR WARM ENOUGH FOR ONLY RAIN. HOWEVER...THERE
COULD BE A BRIEF MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT
SUNDAY NIGHT. MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH
MILDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITION THROUGH THE FCST PRD WITH ONLY BKN CIRRUS CLOUDS
XPCTD. WNDS WILL OR SHORTLY SHFT TO THE NORTH (AOB 10 KTS) AS TROF
MOVES EASTA CROSS THE RGN.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES FRIDAY. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY WITH A CHC FOR IFR
CNDTNS IN LGHT RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA
SUNDAY BUT EASTERLY FLOW COULD MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL KEEP SCA GOING THRU THE LATE MORNING HRS AS FIRST CAA SURGE
WORKS IT WAY THROUGH THE WATERS. ANTHR WEAKER NRLY SURGE SEEN
TONIGHT AS A SCNDRY TROF CROSSES THE RGN...BUT WILL CAP WINDS AT
15 KTS FOR NOW. OTW...N-NE FLOW CONTINUES BLO SCA LVLS INTO THE
WEEKEND.

LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO TRACK ENE TO IMMEDIATELY OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW TRACKS
NE OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO
SPECULATE ON THE POTENTIAL OF SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS/TMG
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAS/AJZ
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 180859
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
359 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
FRIDAY. ONE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF COAST
STATES EAST NORTHEAST TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY MORNING
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS ~995 MB LO PRES OVR NOVA SCOTIA WITH
BROAD ~1029 HI PRES OVR THE NRN PLAINS AND MIDWEST STATES. A WEAK
SFC TROF DROPPED THRU THE MID ATLANTIC THIS MORNG...WITH DRIER NW
FLOW BEHIND THE FRNT PREVENTING ANY FOG FORMATION UNLIKE THE PAST
COUPLE NIGHTS. THE HI WILL SPREAD E INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TDA
ALLOWING FOR THE DRY CONDS TO CONTINUE. OTWS...EXPECT A
PRTLY/MSTLY SUNNY SKY WITH TEMPS ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPR
40S WITH WEAK CAA OVR THE AREA.

DRY WX CONTINUES TNGT WITH A MID-LEVEL S/W TROF PASSING N OF THE
AREA. THE MID ATLANTIC REMAINS INFLUENCED BY SFC HI PRES CENTERED
OVR THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY. EXPECT LIGHT NW WINDS...A PRTLY COUDY
SKY...AND LO TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR 20S TO LWR 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HI PRES SLIDES E THRU THE OH VALLEY AND NE STATES FRI INTO FRI
NIGHT WITH DRY CONDS OVR THE MID ATLANTIC. HI TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPR 40S FRI WITH LO TEMPS FRI NIGHT IN THE UPR 20 TO LWR
30S...AND INCREASING CLOUDS LATE. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SFC LO
PRES DEVELOPING OVR THE GOM. ALL 00Z GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED THE NRN
ADVANCEMENT OF PCPN SAT FARTHER S AND DELAYED THE TIMING...SO
ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. MODEL THICKNESSES SHOW THE POTENTIAL
FOR SLEET TO MIX IN OVR THE PIEDMONT AT THE ONSET...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO PLAIN RAIN. POPS SAT AFTN RANGE FM 20% FAR N...TO
40% AROUND RIC...TO 70% FAR S. PCPN (MAINLY RAIN BUT SNOW PSBLY
MIXED IN) WILL END QUICKLY SAT NIGHT WITH THE UPR-LEVEL FLOW BEING
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND THE SFC LO WEAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NW SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL TO AROUND 30 NW TO THE
UPPER 30S SE. HOWEVER...ANY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOULD END PRIOR TO
ANY SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AOB 32F. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD PREVAIL SUNDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER LOW FORMS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AND TRACKS NE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME
TEMPERATURES APPEAR WARM ENOUGH FOR ONLY RAIN. HOWEVER...THERE
COULD BE A BRIEF MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT
SUNDAY NIGHT. MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH
MILDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITION THROUGH THE FCST PRD WITH ONLY BKN CIRRUS CLOUDS
XPCTD. WNDS WILL OR SHORTLY SHFT TO THE NORTH (AOB 10 KTS) AS TROF
MOVES EASTA CROSS THE RGN.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES FRIDAY. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY WITH A CHC FOR IFR
CNDTNS IN LGHT RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA
SUNDAY BUT EASTERLY FLOW COULD MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL KEEP SCA GOING THRU THE LATE MORNING HRS AS FIRST CAA SURGE
WORKS IT WAY THROUGH THE WATERS. ANTHR WEAKER NRLY SURGE SEEN
TONIGHT AS A SCNDRY TROF CROSSES THE RGN...BUT WILL CAP WINDS AT
15 KTS FOR NOW. OTW...N-NE FLOW CONTINUES BLO SCA LVLS INTO THE
WEEKEND.

LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO TRACK ENE TO IMMEDIATELY OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW TRACKS
NE OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO
SPECULATE ON THE POTENTIAL OF SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS/TMG
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAS/AJZ
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 180859
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
359 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
FRIDAY. ONE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF COAST
STATES EAST NORTHEAST TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY MORNING
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS ~995 MB LO PRES OVR NOVA SCOTIA WITH
BROAD ~1029 HI PRES OVR THE NRN PLAINS AND MIDWEST STATES. A WEAK
SFC TROF DROPPED THRU THE MID ATLANTIC THIS MORNG...WITH DRIER NW
FLOW BEHIND THE FRNT PREVENTING ANY FOG FORMATION UNLIKE THE PAST
COUPLE NIGHTS. THE HI WILL SPREAD E INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TDA
ALLOWING FOR THE DRY CONDS TO CONTINUE. OTWS...EXPECT A
PRTLY/MSTLY SUNNY SKY WITH TEMPS ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPR
40S WITH WEAK CAA OVR THE AREA.

DRY WX CONTINUES TNGT WITH A MID-LEVEL S/W TROF PASSING N OF THE
AREA. THE MID ATLANTIC REMAINS INFLUENCED BY SFC HI PRES CENTERED
OVR THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY. EXPECT LIGHT NW WINDS...A PRTLY COUDY
SKY...AND LO TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR 20S TO LWR 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HI PRES SLIDES E THRU THE OH VALLEY AND NE STATES FRI INTO FRI
NIGHT WITH DRY CONDS OVR THE MID ATLANTIC. HI TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPR 40S FRI WITH LO TEMPS FRI NIGHT IN THE UPR 20 TO LWR
30S...AND INCREASING CLOUDS LATE. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SFC LO
PRES DEVELOPING OVR THE GOM. ALL 00Z GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED THE NRN
ADVANCEMENT OF PCPN SAT FARTHER S AND DELAYED THE TIMING...SO
ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. MODEL THICKNESSES SHOW THE POTENTIAL
FOR SLEET TO MIX IN OVR THE PIEDMONT AT THE ONSET...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO PLAIN RAIN. POPS SAT AFTN RANGE FM 20% FAR N...TO
40% AROUND RIC...TO 70% FAR S. PCPN (MAINLY RAIN BUT SNOW PSBLY
MIXED IN) WILL END QUICKLY SAT NIGHT WITH THE UPR-LEVEL FLOW BEING
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND THE SFC LO WEAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NW SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL TO AROUND 30 NW TO THE
UPPER 30S SE. HOWEVER...ANY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOULD END PRIOR TO
ANY SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AOB 32F. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD PREVAIL SUNDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER LOW FORMS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AND TRACKS NE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME
TEMPERATURES APPEAR WARM ENOUGH FOR ONLY RAIN. HOWEVER...THERE
COULD BE A BRIEF MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT
SUNDAY NIGHT. MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH
MILDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITION THROUGH THE FCST PRD WITH ONLY BKN CIRRUS CLOUDS
XPCTD. WNDS WILL OR SHORTLY SHFT TO THE NORTH (AOB 10 KTS) AS TROF
MOVES EASTA CROSS THE RGN.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES FRIDAY. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY WITH A CHC FOR IFR
CNDTNS IN LGHT RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA
SUNDAY BUT EASTERLY FLOW COULD MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL KEEP SCA GOING THRU THE LATE MORNING HRS AS FIRST CAA SURGE
WORKS IT WAY THROUGH THE WATERS. ANTHR WEAKER NRLY SURGE SEEN
TONIGHT AS A SCNDRY TROF CROSSES THE RGN...BUT WILL CAP WINDS AT
15 KTS FOR NOW. OTW...N-NE FLOW CONTINUES BLO SCA LVLS INTO THE
WEEKEND.

LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO TRACK ENE TO IMMEDIATELY OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW TRACKS
NE OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO
SPECULATE ON THE POTENTIAL OF SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS/TMG
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAS/AJZ
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR





000
FXUS61 KLWX 180840
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
340 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR A WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT WILL CROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. A SECONDARY LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UP FROM THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOOKS TO DEVELOP IN THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIPRES ACRS THE UPR MIDWEST HAS A RDG AXIS EXTENDING FM IT TWD
CWFA. ALSO EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR/STLT/RADAR COMPOSITE IS A S/WV
ENTERING THE LWR OHVLY. FINALLY...THERES A NRN STREAM TROF AXIS...
WHICH COVERS THE UPR OHVLY W/ CLDS. THESE HV SPREAD FM THERE ACRS
NRN CWFA. NAM DOING BEST AT CAPTURING THE LYR OF RH /THO ITS A LTL
TOO LOW IN CLD HGTS/...AND HV USED IT IN POPULATING SKYCVR. THINK WE
MAY STILL HV SOME CLDS AT SUNRISE ACRS MD...BUT THEY SHUD MIX OUT
SOON THEREAFTER AS UPR SUPPORT DEPARTS.

SUBSIDENCE SHUD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HRS. ATM LOOKS WELL
MIXED IN THE WAKE OF THE TROF...AND HV NW WNDS UP TO 20 KT. WL BE
COOLER THAN YDA...BUT QSTN IS HOW COOL...SPCLY CONSIDERING THERE WL
BE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AND FCST WAS TOO COOL YDA. DID NOT GO QUITE
AS LOW AS NAM DUE TO THAT...BUT DID SHADE FCST DOWNWARD.

WL HV SOME CLDS FM THE SYSTEM IN THE CENTRL OF THE CONUS ADVCG EWD
BY END OF THE PD. WL BE MOCLDY AS A RESULT IN THE EVNG AS WV CROSSES
CWFA. NAM SUGGESTING SCHC POPS...MAYBE DUE TO A FLURRY OR TWO. AMS
LOOKS TOO DRY FOR THAT. WENT LWR THAN NAM POPS...PRECLUDING A
MENTION...BUT POP GRIDS NONZERO. TOOK TEMPS DOWN BY A CPL DEGF IN
CAA.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PTTN FRI SIMLR TO TDA...MINUS THE S/WVS. HV FEWER
CLDS IN THE GRIDS...AND SIMLR TEMPS. AFTR MIDNGT...WL HV MID DECK
CLDS FILLING IN FM THE SW...BUT FCST PACE OF STORM SYSTEM HAS
SLOWED...WHICH IMPACTS SKYCOVER. NE OF PTMC RIVER SKYCOVER MAY AVG
OUT NO WORSE THAN PTCLDY.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC AND EXTEND DOWN INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING THE
OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CAUSE MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO THE REGION SATURDAY CAUSING CLOUDS TO BUILD IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. A JET STREAK WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE SE STATES
WITH MOST OF THE FORCING ACROSS THIS REGION INCLUDING THE
CAROLINAS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. FLOW AT 850 VEERS WESTERLY
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC SAT AFTERNOON AND SHUTS OFF MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM THE GULF. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHTER PRECIP ACROSS
THE REGION. MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH AND ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS. THE 3Z SREF MEAN HAS LINED UP MORE WITH THE
DETERMINISTIC RUNS SHOWING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 40S SATURDAY AND ANY
PRECIP WILL BE RAIN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
THAT WOULD SEE SNOW. LIGHT PRECIP IS EXPECTED AND THEREFORE LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IN THE MTNS IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST BY SUNDAY AND
RIDGING WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN FROM THE WEST. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF CALM WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM
BEGINS TO FORM OFF THE SE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE GULF COAST STATES AND CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO TAKE
PLACE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO BE ABOVE FREEZING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS MONDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.
LOW PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY. LITTLE
RELIEF IS EXPECTED AS THE NEXT STRONG SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION MIDWEEK. TIMING IS EVERYTHING AND MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEMS SEEMS TO BE PRE-FRONT AND THEREFORE THE MID=ATLANTIC WOULD
SEE MOSTLY RAIN.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR FLGT CONDS...W/ BKN CIGS 040-050 AND WINDS OCNLY G20KT. CIGS WL
SCATTER OUT ARND DAYBREAK. GUSTY NW WINDS WL BECOME MORE CONSISTENT
BY MID MRNG...AND SHUD CONT THRU AT LEAST MID AFTN.

WL HV A PD OF MID DECK CLDS THIS EVNG. THINK WNDS WL SUBSIDE AT THE
SFC...BUT WL STILL HV 20-25 KT FLOW 1000 FT UP. NOT ENUF TO QUALIFY
FOR LLWS.

VFR CONTS FRI-FRI NGT. ANTHR PD OF GUSTY NW WINDS MIDDAY UP TO 20
KT. ONCE AGN...MID DECK CLDS WL OVERSPREAD TERMINALS AT NGT.

NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
SPORADIC SCA CALIBER WNDS ON THE WATERS ATTM. THESE WL BECOME MORE
CONSISTENT AFTR DAYBREAK. MOMENTUM TRANSFER SUGGESTS 20-25 KT BY
MIDDAY...AND HAS IT LINGERING A LTL BIT LONGER. HV XTNDD ADVY FOR
ALL WATERS BY A CPL HRS...AND THE MAIN CHANNEL/LWR PTMC A BIT LONGER
TOO. GDNC SUGGESTING THAT FLOW WL PARTIALLY DCPL TNGT. AM NOT
CERTAIN OF THAT...BUT WL CAP WNDS JUST BLO FOR THE NIGHT TIME PD.
THE OPPORTUNITY FOR MIXING RENEWS AFTER SUNRISE FRI. HV ISSUED
ANTHR SCA FOR MOST OF THE BAY AND LWR PTMC RIVER THRU MID AFTN.

A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE WATERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AN
ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT
THE WATERS MONDAY.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ531>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...HAS
AVIATION...HTS/HAS
MARINE...HTS/HAS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 180840
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
340 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR A WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT WILL CROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. A SECONDARY LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UP FROM THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOOKS TO DEVELOP IN THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIPRES ACRS THE UPR MIDWEST HAS A RDG AXIS EXTENDING FM IT TWD
CWFA. ALSO EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR/STLT/RADAR COMPOSITE IS A S/WV
ENTERING THE LWR OHVLY. FINALLY...THERES A NRN STREAM TROF AXIS...
WHICH COVERS THE UPR OHVLY W/ CLDS. THESE HV SPREAD FM THERE ACRS
NRN CWFA. NAM DOING BEST AT CAPTURING THE LYR OF RH /THO ITS A LTL
TOO LOW IN CLD HGTS/...AND HV USED IT IN POPULATING SKYCVR. THINK WE
MAY STILL HV SOME CLDS AT SUNRISE ACRS MD...BUT THEY SHUD MIX OUT
SOON THEREAFTER AS UPR SUPPORT DEPARTS.

SUBSIDENCE SHUD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HRS. ATM LOOKS WELL
MIXED IN THE WAKE OF THE TROF...AND HV NW WNDS UP TO 20 KT. WL BE
COOLER THAN YDA...BUT QSTN IS HOW COOL...SPCLY CONSIDERING THERE WL
BE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AND FCST WAS TOO COOL YDA. DID NOT GO QUITE
AS LOW AS NAM DUE TO THAT...BUT DID SHADE FCST DOWNWARD.

WL HV SOME CLDS FM THE SYSTEM IN THE CENTRL OF THE CONUS ADVCG EWD
BY END OF THE PD. WL BE MOCLDY AS A RESULT IN THE EVNG AS WV CROSSES
CWFA. NAM SUGGESTING SCHC POPS...MAYBE DUE TO A FLURRY OR TWO. AMS
LOOKS TOO DRY FOR THAT. WENT LWR THAN NAM POPS...PRECLUDING A
MENTION...BUT POP GRIDS NONZERO. TOOK TEMPS DOWN BY A CPL DEGF IN
CAA.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PTTN FRI SIMLR TO TDA...MINUS THE S/WVS. HV FEWER
CLDS IN THE GRIDS...AND SIMLR TEMPS. AFTR MIDNGT...WL HV MID DECK
CLDS FILLING IN FM THE SW...BUT FCST PACE OF STORM SYSTEM HAS
SLOWED...WHICH IMPACTS SKYCOVER. NE OF PTMC RIVER SKYCOVER MAY AVG
OUT NO WORSE THAN PTCLDY.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC AND EXTEND DOWN INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING THE
OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CAUSE MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO THE REGION SATURDAY CAUSING CLOUDS TO BUILD IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. A JET STREAK WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE SE STATES
WITH MOST OF THE FORCING ACROSS THIS REGION INCLUDING THE
CAROLINAS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. FLOW AT 850 VEERS WESTERLY
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC SAT AFTERNOON AND SHUTS OFF MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM THE GULF. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHTER PRECIP ACROSS
THE REGION. MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH AND ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS. THE 3Z SREF MEAN HAS LINED UP MORE WITH THE
DETERMINISTIC RUNS SHOWING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 40S SATURDAY AND ANY
PRECIP WILL BE RAIN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
THAT WOULD SEE SNOW. LIGHT PRECIP IS EXPECTED AND THEREFORE LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IN THE MTNS IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST BY SUNDAY AND
RIDGING WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN FROM THE WEST. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF CALM WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM
BEGINS TO FORM OFF THE SE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE GULF COAST STATES AND CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO TAKE
PLACE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO BE ABOVE FREEZING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS MONDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.
LOW PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY. LITTLE
RELIEF IS EXPECTED AS THE NEXT STRONG SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION MIDWEEK. TIMING IS EVERYTHING AND MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEMS SEEMS TO BE PRE-FRONT AND THEREFORE THE MID=ATLANTIC WOULD
SEE MOSTLY RAIN.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR FLGT CONDS...W/ BKN CIGS 040-050 AND WINDS OCNLY G20KT. CIGS WL
SCATTER OUT ARND DAYBREAK. GUSTY NW WINDS WL BECOME MORE CONSISTENT
BY MID MRNG...AND SHUD CONT THRU AT LEAST MID AFTN.

WL HV A PD OF MID DECK CLDS THIS EVNG. THINK WNDS WL SUBSIDE AT THE
SFC...BUT WL STILL HV 20-25 KT FLOW 1000 FT UP. NOT ENUF TO QUALIFY
FOR LLWS.

VFR CONTS FRI-FRI NGT. ANTHR PD OF GUSTY NW WINDS MIDDAY UP TO 20
KT. ONCE AGN...MID DECK CLDS WL OVERSPREAD TERMINALS AT NGT.

NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
SPORADIC SCA CALIBER WNDS ON THE WATERS ATTM. THESE WL BECOME MORE
CONSISTENT AFTR DAYBREAK. MOMENTUM TRANSFER SUGGESTS 20-25 KT BY
MIDDAY...AND HAS IT LINGERING A LTL BIT LONGER. HV XTNDD ADVY FOR
ALL WATERS BY A CPL HRS...AND THE MAIN CHANNEL/LWR PTMC A BIT LONGER
TOO. GDNC SUGGESTING THAT FLOW WL PARTIALLY DCPL TNGT. AM NOT
CERTAIN OF THAT...BUT WL CAP WNDS JUST BLO FOR THE NIGHT TIME PD.
THE OPPORTUNITY FOR MIXING RENEWS AFTER SUNRISE FRI. HV ISSUED
ANTHR SCA FOR MOST OF THE BAY AND LWR PTMC RIVER THRU MID AFTN.

A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE WATERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AN
ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT
THE WATERS MONDAY.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ531>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...HAS
AVIATION...HTS/HAS
MARINE...HTS/HAS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 180840
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
340 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR A WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT WILL CROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. A SECONDARY LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UP FROM THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOOKS TO DEVELOP IN THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIPRES ACRS THE UPR MIDWEST HAS A RDG AXIS EXTENDING FM IT TWD
CWFA. ALSO EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR/STLT/RADAR COMPOSITE IS A S/WV
ENTERING THE LWR OHVLY. FINALLY...THERES A NRN STREAM TROF AXIS...
WHICH COVERS THE UPR OHVLY W/ CLDS. THESE HV SPREAD FM THERE ACRS
NRN CWFA. NAM DOING BEST AT CAPTURING THE LYR OF RH /THO ITS A LTL
TOO LOW IN CLD HGTS/...AND HV USED IT IN POPULATING SKYCVR. THINK WE
MAY STILL HV SOME CLDS AT SUNRISE ACRS MD...BUT THEY SHUD MIX OUT
SOON THEREAFTER AS UPR SUPPORT DEPARTS.

SUBSIDENCE SHUD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HRS. ATM LOOKS WELL
MIXED IN THE WAKE OF THE TROF...AND HV NW WNDS UP TO 20 KT. WL BE
COOLER THAN YDA...BUT QSTN IS HOW COOL...SPCLY CONSIDERING THERE WL
BE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AND FCST WAS TOO COOL YDA. DID NOT GO QUITE
AS LOW AS NAM DUE TO THAT...BUT DID SHADE FCST DOWNWARD.

WL HV SOME CLDS FM THE SYSTEM IN THE CENTRL OF THE CONUS ADVCG EWD
BY END OF THE PD. WL BE MOCLDY AS A RESULT IN THE EVNG AS WV CROSSES
CWFA. NAM SUGGESTING SCHC POPS...MAYBE DUE TO A FLURRY OR TWO. AMS
LOOKS TOO DRY FOR THAT. WENT LWR THAN NAM POPS...PRECLUDING A
MENTION...BUT POP GRIDS NONZERO. TOOK TEMPS DOWN BY A CPL DEGF IN
CAA.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PTTN FRI SIMLR TO TDA...MINUS THE S/WVS. HV FEWER
CLDS IN THE GRIDS...AND SIMLR TEMPS. AFTR MIDNGT...WL HV MID DECK
CLDS FILLING IN FM THE SW...BUT FCST PACE OF STORM SYSTEM HAS
SLOWED...WHICH IMPACTS SKYCOVER. NE OF PTMC RIVER SKYCOVER MAY AVG
OUT NO WORSE THAN PTCLDY.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC AND EXTEND DOWN INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING THE
OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CAUSE MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO THE REGION SATURDAY CAUSING CLOUDS TO BUILD IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. A JET STREAK WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE SE STATES
WITH MOST OF THE FORCING ACROSS THIS REGION INCLUDING THE
CAROLINAS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. FLOW AT 850 VEERS WESTERLY
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC SAT AFTERNOON AND SHUTS OFF MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM THE GULF. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHTER PRECIP ACROSS
THE REGION. MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH AND ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS. THE 3Z SREF MEAN HAS LINED UP MORE WITH THE
DETERMINISTIC RUNS SHOWING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 40S SATURDAY AND ANY
PRECIP WILL BE RAIN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
THAT WOULD SEE SNOW. LIGHT PRECIP IS EXPECTED AND THEREFORE LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IN THE MTNS IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST BY SUNDAY AND
RIDGING WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN FROM THE WEST. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF CALM WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM
BEGINS TO FORM OFF THE SE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE GULF COAST STATES AND CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO TAKE
PLACE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO BE ABOVE FREEZING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS MONDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.
LOW PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY. LITTLE
RELIEF IS EXPECTED AS THE NEXT STRONG SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION MIDWEEK. TIMING IS EVERYTHING AND MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEMS SEEMS TO BE PRE-FRONT AND THEREFORE THE MID=ATLANTIC WOULD
SEE MOSTLY RAIN.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR FLGT CONDS...W/ BKN CIGS 040-050 AND WINDS OCNLY G20KT. CIGS WL
SCATTER OUT ARND DAYBREAK. GUSTY NW WINDS WL BECOME MORE CONSISTENT
BY MID MRNG...AND SHUD CONT THRU AT LEAST MID AFTN.

WL HV A PD OF MID DECK CLDS THIS EVNG. THINK WNDS WL SUBSIDE AT THE
SFC...BUT WL STILL HV 20-25 KT FLOW 1000 FT UP. NOT ENUF TO QUALIFY
FOR LLWS.

VFR CONTS FRI-FRI NGT. ANTHR PD OF GUSTY NW WINDS MIDDAY UP TO 20
KT. ONCE AGN...MID DECK CLDS WL OVERSPREAD TERMINALS AT NGT.

NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
SPORADIC SCA CALIBER WNDS ON THE WATERS ATTM. THESE WL BECOME MORE
CONSISTENT AFTR DAYBREAK. MOMENTUM TRANSFER SUGGESTS 20-25 KT BY
MIDDAY...AND HAS IT LINGERING A LTL BIT LONGER. HV XTNDD ADVY FOR
ALL WATERS BY A CPL HRS...AND THE MAIN CHANNEL/LWR PTMC A BIT LONGER
TOO. GDNC SUGGESTING THAT FLOW WL PARTIALLY DCPL TNGT. AM NOT
CERTAIN OF THAT...BUT WL CAP WNDS JUST BLO FOR THE NIGHT TIME PD.
THE OPPORTUNITY FOR MIXING RENEWS AFTER SUNRISE FRI. HV ISSUED
ANTHR SCA FOR MOST OF THE BAY AND LWR PTMC RIVER THRU MID AFTN.

A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE WATERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AN
ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT
THE WATERS MONDAY.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ531>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...HAS
AVIATION...HTS/HAS
MARINE...HTS/HAS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 180840
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
340 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR A WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT WILL CROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. A SECONDARY LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UP FROM THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOOKS TO DEVELOP IN THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIPRES ACRS THE UPR MIDWEST HAS A RDG AXIS EXTENDING FM IT TWD
CWFA. ALSO EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR/STLT/RADAR COMPOSITE IS A S/WV
ENTERING THE LWR OHVLY. FINALLY...THERES A NRN STREAM TROF AXIS...
WHICH COVERS THE UPR OHVLY W/ CLDS. THESE HV SPREAD FM THERE ACRS
NRN CWFA. NAM DOING BEST AT CAPTURING THE LYR OF RH /THO ITS A LTL
TOO LOW IN CLD HGTS/...AND HV USED IT IN POPULATING SKYCVR. THINK WE
MAY STILL HV SOME CLDS AT SUNRISE ACRS MD...BUT THEY SHUD MIX OUT
SOON THEREAFTER AS UPR SUPPORT DEPARTS.

SUBSIDENCE SHUD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HRS. ATM LOOKS WELL
MIXED IN THE WAKE OF THE TROF...AND HV NW WNDS UP TO 20 KT. WL BE
COOLER THAN YDA...BUT QSTN IS HOW COOL...SPCLY CONSIDERING THERE WL
BE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AND FCST WAS TOO COOL YDA. DID NOT GO QUITE
AS LOW AS NAM DUE TO THAT...BUT DID SHADE FCST DOWNWARD.

WL HV SOME CLDS FM THE SYSTEM IN THE CENTRL OF THE CONUS ADVCG EWD
BY END OF THE PD. WL BE MOCLDY AS A RESULT IN THE EVNG AS WV CROSSES
CWFA. NAM SUGGESTING SCHC POPS...MAYBE DUE TO A FLURRY OR TWO. AMS
LOOKS TOO DRY FOR THAT. WENT LWR THAN NAM POPS...PRECLUDING A
MENTION...BUT POP GRIDS NONZERO. TOOK TEMPS DOWN BY A CPL DEGF IN
CAA.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PTTN FRI SIMLR TO TDA...MINUS THE S/WVS. HV FEWER
CLDS IN THE GRIDS...AND SIMLR TEMPS. AFTR MIDNGT...WL HV MID DECK
CLDS FILLING IN FM THE SW...BUT FCST PACE OF STORM SYSTEM HAS
SLOWED...WHICH IMPACTS SKYCOVER. NE OF PTMC RIVER SKYCOVER MAY AVG
OUT NO WORSE THAN PTCLDY.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC AND EXTEND DOWN INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING THE
OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CAUSE MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO THE REGION SATURDAY CAUSING CLOUDS TO BUILD IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. A JET STREAK WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE SE STATES
WITH MOST OF THE FORCING ACROSS THIS REGION INCLUDING THE
CAROLINAS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. FLOW AT 850 VEERS WESTERLY
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC SAT AFTERNOON AND SHUTS OFF MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM THE GULF. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHTER PRECIP ACROSS
THE REGION. MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH AND ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS. THE 3Z SREF MEAN HAS LINED UP MORE WITH THE
DETERMINISTIC RUNS SHOWING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 40S SATURDAY AND ANY
PRECIP WILL BE RAIN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
THAT WOULD SEE SNOW. LIGHT PRECIP IS EXPECTED AND THEREFORE LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IN THE MTNS IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST BY SUNDAY AND
RIDGING WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN FROM THE WEST. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF CALM WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM
BEGINS TO FORM OFF THE SE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE GULF COAST STATES AND CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO TAKE
PLACE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO BE ABOVE FREEZING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS MONDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.
LOW PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY. LITTLE
RELIEF IS EXPECTED AS THE NEXT STRONG SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION MIDWEEK. TIMING IS EVERYTHING AND MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEMS SEEMS TO BE PRE-FRONT AND THEREFORE THE MID=ATLANTIC WOULD
SEE MOSTLY RAIN.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR FLGT CONDS...W/ BKN CIGS 040-050 AND WINDS OCNLY G20KT. CIGS WL
SCATTER OUT ARND DAYBREAK. GUSTY NW WINDS WL BECOME MORE CONSISTENT
BY MID MRNG...AND SHUD CONT THRU AT LEAST MID AFTN.

WL HV A PD OF MID DECK CLDS THIS EVNG. THINK WNDS WL SUBSIDE AT THE
SFC...BUT WL STILL HV 20-25 KT FLOW 1000 FT UP. NOT ENUF TO QUALIFY
FOR LLWS.

VFR CONTS FRI-FRI NGT. ANTHR PD OF GUSTY NW WINDS MIDDAY UP TO 20
KT. ONCE AGN...MID DECK CLDS WL OVERSPREAD TERMINALS AT NGT.

NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
SPORADIC SCA CALIBER WNDS ON THE WATERS ATTM. THESE WL BECOME MORE
CONSISTENT AFTR DAYBREAK. MOMENTUM TRANSFER SUGGESTS 20-25 KT BY
MIDDAY...AND HAS IT LINGERING A LTL BIT LONGER. HV XTNDD ADVY FOR
ALL WATERS BY A CPL HRS...AND THE MAIN CHANNEL/LWR PTMC A BIT LONGER
TOO. GDNC SUGGESTING THAT FLOW WL PARTIALLY DCPL TNGT. AM NOT
CERTAIN OF THAT...BUT WL CAP WNDS JUST BLO FOR THE NIGHT TIME PD.
THE OPPORTUNITY FOR MIXING RENEWS AFTER SUNRISE FRI. HV ISSUED
ANTHR SCA FOR MOST OF THE BAY AND LWR PTMC RIVER THRU MID AFTN.

A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE WATERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AN
ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT
THE WATERS MONDAY.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ531>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...HAS
AVIATION...HTS/HAS
MARINE...HTS/HAS








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 180541
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1241 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
FRIDAY. ONE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF COAST
STATES EAST NORTHEAST TO JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
SATURDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SFC TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL AREA WITH LIGHT LOW-LEVEL WEST-
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT AS THE SFC TROUGH WEAKENS. THIS WILL ALLOW DRIER
AND COLDER AIR TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
DROP OF 30M TONIGHT WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S. SOME LOCALS OVER THE PIEDMONT EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE
UPPER 20S. INCREASING WINDS ALOFT AND A PASSING UPPER LOW TO THE
NORTH WILL RESULT IN HIGH CLOUDS THRU MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT...THINNING LATE. CLOUD COVER NOT EXPECTED TO BE THICK
ENOUGH TO LIMIT TEMPS. DRIER AIR WILL INHIBIT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THU INTO EARLY FRI NGT...AS DRY/ZONAL
FLO DOMINATES THE REGION AND SFC HI PRES BLDS ACRS THE GRT LKS
INTO SE CANADA. SHRTWV ENERGY TRACKING FM W-E IN FAST FLO ALOFT
WILL PRODUCE A LITTLE MORE CLOUDINESS THU NGT INTO FRI MORNG.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY THU THRU FRI...WITH HI
TEMPS RANGING THRU THE 40S BOTH DAYS. LOWS THU NGT MAINLY IN THE
UPR 20S TO LWR 30S.

FRI NGT THRU SAT...LEANING CLOSER TO THE SLGTLY FASTER GFS...ESPLY
REGARDING ONSET/OVERSPREADING OF PCPN ACRS THE REGION. AT THIS
TIME...WENT CLOSER TO THE GFS THICKNESSES/MDL SOUNDINGS...ESPLY
DURING SAT MORNG WITH THE ONSET OF PCPN...WHERE A CHC OF SLEET
(MAYBE SOME SNOW) WAS ADDED GENERALLY N OF A SOUTH HILL TO
WILLIAMSBURG LINE. BY LATE MORNG OR EARLY AFTN...PCPN WILL BECOME
JUST RAIN EVERYWHERE...AS LAYERS WARM AND SFC TEMPS CLIMB INTO
THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHEST QPF AMTS WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD
END UP ACRS EXTRM SRN/SE VA AND NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NW SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL TO AROUND 30 NW TO THE
UPPER 30S SE. HOWEVER...ANY LIGHT RAIN SHOULD END PRIOR TO ANY
SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AOB 32F. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
PREVAIL SUNDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER LOW FORMS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
AND TRACKS NE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME TEMPERATURES
APPEAR WARM ENOUGH FOR ONLY RAIN. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF
MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT SUNDAY NIGHT. MID-LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH MILDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
BY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITION THROUGH THE FCST PRD WITH ONLY BKN CIRRUS CLOUDS
XPCTD. WNDS WILL OR SHORTLY SHFT TO THE NORTH (AOB 10 KTS) AS TROF
MOVES EASTA CROSS THE RGN.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES FRIDAY. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY WITH A CHC FOR IFR
CNDTNS IN LGHT RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA
SUNDAY BUT EASTERLY FLOW COULD MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS.

&&

.MARINE...
WENT AHEAD AND HOISTED A SCA FOR THE LOWER & MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY
GIVEN THE LATEST DATA SUGGESTS WINDS INCREASE TO BTWN 15-20 KT
ONCE THE WEAK TROF PASSES ACROSS THE AREA OVR THE NEXT FEW HRS.
BUMPED UP WAVES AS WELL THRU THE ERLY MORNING HRS. OTW...NO OTH
CHANGES WITH ERLY AM UPDATE.

PVS DSCN:
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES BY TO THE N TONIGHT FOLLOWED
BY SHALLOW CAA ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF THE MARINE AREA. THE
CURRENT SCA FOR THE NRN OCEAN ZONES WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE NRN
TWO BAY ZONES. A 20-25KT NW WIND IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN OCEAN
ZONES...WHICH COULD BRIEFLY BUILD SEAS TO 4-5FT OUT NEAR 20NM.
GENERALLY EXPECTING LOW-END (15-20KT) SCA CONDITIONS IN THE NRN BAY
ZONES. SIMILAR CONDITIONS PERSIST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE WIND
GRADUALLY DECREASING. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ENE TO IMMEDIATELY OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW
TRACKS NE OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO
SPECULATE ON THE POTENTIAL OF SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...AJZ/MPR






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 180541
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1241 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
FRIDAY. ONE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF COAST
STATES EAST NORTHEAST TO JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
SATURDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SFC TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL AREA WITH LIGHT LOW-LEVEL WEST-
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT AS THE SFC TROUGH WEAKENS. THIS WILL ALLOW DRIER
AND COLDER AIR TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
DROP OF 30M TONIGHT WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S. SOME LOCALS OVER THE PIEDMONT EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE
UPPER 20S. INCREASING WINDS ALOFT AND A PASSING UPPER LOW TO THE
NORTH WILL RESULT IN HIGH CLOUDS THRU MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT...THINNING LATE. CLOUD COVER NOT EXPECTED TO BE THICK
ENOUGH TO LIMIT TEMPS. DRIER AIR WILL INHIBIT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THU INTO EARLY FRI NGT...AS DRY/ZONAL
FLO DOMINATES THE REGION AND SFC HI PRES BLDS ACRS THE GRT LKS
INTO SE CANADA. SHRTWV ENERGY TRACKING FM W-E IN FAST FLO ALOFT
WILL PRODUCE A LITTLE MORE CLOUDINESS THU NGT INTO FRI MORNG.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY THU THRU FRI...WITH HI
TEMPS RANGING THRU THE 40S BOTH DAYS. LOWS THU NGT MAINLY IN THE
UPR 20S TO LWR 30S.

FRI NGT THRU SAT...LEANING CLOSER TO THE SLGTLY FASTER GFS...ESPLY
REGARDING ONSET/OVERSPREADING OF PCPN ACRS THE REGION. AT THIS
TIME...WENT CLOSER TO THE GFS THICKNESSES/MDL SOUNDINGS...ESPLY
DURING SAT MORNG WITH THE ONSET OF PCPN...WHERE A CHC OF SLEET
(MAYBE SOME SNOW) WAS ADDED GENERALLY N OF A SOUTH HILL TO
WILLIAMSBURG LINE. BY LATE MORNG OR EARLY AFTN...PCPN WILL BECOME
JUST RAIN EVERYWHERE...AS LAYERS WARM AND SFC TEMPS CLIMB INTO
THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHEST QPF AMTS WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD
END UP ACRS EXTRM SRN/SE VA AND NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NW SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL TO AROUND 30 NW TO THE
UPPER 30S SE. HOWEVER...ANY LIGHT RAIN SHOULD END PRIOR TO ANY
SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AOB 32F. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
PREVAIL SUNDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER LOW FORMS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
AND TRACKS NE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME TEMPERATURES
APPEAR WARM ENOUGH FOR ONLY RAIN. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF
MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT SUNDAY NIGHT. MID-LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH MILDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
BY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITION THROUGH THE FCST PRD WITH ONLY BKN CIRRUS CLOUDS
XPCTD. WNDS WILL OR SHORTLY SHFT TO THE NORTH (AOB 10 KTS) AS TROF
MOVES EASTA CROSS THE RGN.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES FRIDAY. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY WITH A CHC FOR IFR
CNDTNS IN LGHT RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA
SUNDAY BUT EASTERLY FLOW COULD MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS.

&&

.MARINE...
WENT AHEAD AND HOISTED A SCA FOR THE LOWER & MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY
GIVEN THE LATEST DATA SUGGESTS WINDS INCREASE TO BTWN 15-20 KT
ONCE THE WEAK TROF PASSES ACROSS THE AREA OVR THE NEXT FEW HRS.
BUMPED UP WAVES AS WELL THRU THE ERLY MORNING HRS. OTW...NO OTH
CHANGES WITH ERLY AM UPDATE.

PVS DSCN:
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES BY TO THE N TONIGHT FOLLOWED
BY SHALLOW CAA ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF THE MARINE AREA. THE
CURRENT SCA FOR THE NRN OCEAN ZONES WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE NRN
TWO BAY ZONES. A 20-25KT NW WIND IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN OCEAN
ZONES...WHICH COULD BRIEFLY BUILD SEAS TO 4-5FT OUT NEAR 20NM.
GENERALLY EXPECTING LOW-END (15-20KT) SCA CONDITIONS IN THE NRN BAY
ZONES. SIMILAR CONDITIONS PERSIST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE WIND
GRADUALLY DECREASING. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ENE TO IMMEDIATELY OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW
TRACKS NE OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO
SPECULATE ON THE POTENTIAL OF SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...AJZ/MPR






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 180541
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1241 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
FRIDAY. ONE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF COAST
STATES EAST NORTHEAST TO JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
SATURDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SFC TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL AREA WITH LIGHT LOW-LEVEL WEST-
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT AS THE SFC TROUGH WEAKENS. THIS WILL ALLOW DRIER
AND COLDER AIR TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
DROP OF 30M TONIGHT WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S. SOME LOCALS OVER THE PIEDMONT EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE
UPPER 20S. INCREASING WINDS ALOFT AND A PASSING UPPER LOW TO THE
NORTH WILL RESULT IN HIGH CLOUDS THRU MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT...THINNING LATE. CLOUD COVER NOT EXPECTED TO BE THICK
ENOUGH TO LIMIT TEMPS. DRIER AIR WILL INHIBIT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THU INTO EARLY FRI NGT...AS DRY/ZONAL
FLO DOMINATES THE REGION AND SFC HI PRES BLDS ACRS THE GRT LKS
INTO SE CANADA. SHRTWV ENERGY TRACKING FM W-E IN FAST FLO ALOFT
WILL PRODUCE A LITTLE MORE CLOUDINESS THU NGT INTO FRI MORNG.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY THU THRU FRI...WITH HI
TEMPS RANGING THRU THE 40S BOTH DAYS. LOWS THU NGT MAINLY IN THE
UPR 20S TO LWR 30S.

FRI NGT THRU SAT...LEANING CLOSER TO THE SLGTLY FASTER GFS...ESPLY
REGARDING ONSET/OVERSPREADING OF PCPN ACRS THE REGION. AT THIS
TIME...WENT CLOSER TO THE GFS THICKNESSES/MDL SOUNDINGS...ESPLY
DURING SAT MORNG WITH THE ONSET OF PCPN...WHERE A CHC OF SLEET
(MAYBE SOME SNOW) WAS ADDED GENERALLY N OF A SOUTH HILL TO
WILLIAMSBURG LINE. BY LATE MORNG OR EARLY AFTN...PCPN WILL BECOME
JUST RAIN EVERYWHERE...AS LAYERS WARM AND SFC TEMPS CLIMB INTO
THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHEST QPF AMTS WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD
END UP ACRS EXTRM SRN/SE VA AND NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NW SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL TO AROUND 30 NW TO THE
UPPER 30S SE. HOWEVER...ANY LIGHT RAIN SHOULD END PRIOR TO ANY
SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AOB 32F. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
PREVAIL SUNDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER LOW FORMS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
AND TRACKS NE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME TEMPERATURES
APPEAR WARM ENOUGH FOR ONLY RAIN. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF
MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT SUNDAY NIGHT. MID-LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH MILDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
BY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITION THROUGH THE FCST PRD WITH ONLY BKN CIRRUS CLOUDS
XPCTD. WNDS WILL OR SHORTLY SHFT TO THE NORTH (AOB 10 KTS) AS TROF
MOVES EASTA CROSS THE RGN.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES FRIDAY. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY WITH A CHC FOR IFR
CNDTNS IN LGHT RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA
SUNDAY BUT EASTERLY FLOW COULD MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS.

&&

.MARINE...
WENT AHEAD AND HOISTED A SCA FOR THE LOWER & MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY
GIVEN THE LATEST DATA SUGGESTS WINDS INCREASE TO BTWN 15-20 KT
ONCE THE WEAK TROF PASSES ACROSS THE AREA OVR THE NEXT FEW HRS.
BUMPED UP WAVES AS WELL THRU THE ERLY MORNING HRS. OTW...NO OTH
CHANGES WITH ERLY AM UPDATE.

PVS DSCN:
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES BY TO THE N TONIGHT FOLLOWED
BY SHALLOW CAA ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF THE MARINE AREA. THE
CURRENT SCA FOR THE NRN OCEAN ZONES WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE NRN
TWO BAY ZONES. A 20-25KT NW WIND IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN OCEAN
ZONES...WHICH COULD BRIEFLY BUILD SEAS TO 4-5FT OUT NEAR 20NM.
GENERALLY EXPECTING LOW-END (15-20KT) SCA CONDITIONS IN THE NRN BAY
ZONES. SIMILAR CONDITIONS PERSIST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE WIND
GRADUALLY DECREASING. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ENE TO IMMEDIATELY OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW
TRACKS NE OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO
SPECULATE ON THE POTENTIAL OF SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...AJZ/MPR






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 180541
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1241 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
FRIDAY. ONE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF COAST
STATES EAST NORTHEAST TO JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
SATURDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SFC TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL AREA WITH LIGHT LOW-LEVEL WEST-
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT AS THE SFC TROUGH WEAKENS. THIS WILL ALLOW DRIER
AND COLDER AIR TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
DROP OF 30M TONIGHT WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S. SOME LOCALS OVER THE PIEDMONT EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE
UPPER 20S. INCREASING WINDS ALOFT AND A PASSING UPPER LOW TO THE
NORTH WILL RESULT IN HIGH CLOUDS THRU MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT...THINNING LATE. CLOUD COVER NOT EXPECTED TO BE THICK
ENOUGH TO LIMIT TEMPS. DRIER AIR WILL INHIBIT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THU INTO EARLY FRI NGT...AS DRY/ZONAL
FLO DOMINATES THE REGION AND SFC HI PRES BLDS ACRS THE GRT LKS
INTO SE CANADA. SHRTWV ENERGY TRACKING FM W-E IN FAST FLO ALOFT
WILL PRODUCE A LITTLE MORE CLOUDINESS THU NGT INTO FRI MORNG.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY THU THRU FRI...WITH HI
TEMPS RANGING THRU THE 40S BOTH DAYS. LOWS THU NGT MAINLY IN THE
UPR 20S TO LWR 30S.

FRI NGT THRU SAT...LEANING CLOSER TO THE SLGTLY FASTER GFS...ESPLY
REGARDING ONSET/OVERSPREADING OF PCPN ACRS THE REGION. AT THIS
TIME...WENT CLOSER TO THE GFS THICKNESSES/MDL SOUNDINGS...ESPLY
DURING SAT MORNG WITH THE ONSET OF PCPN...WHERE A CHC OF SLEET
(MAYBE SOME SNOW) WAS ADDED GENERALLY N OF A SOUTH HILL TO
WILLIAMSBURG LINE. BY LATE MORNG OR EARLY AFTN...PCPN WILL BECOME
JUST RAIN EVERYWHERE...AS LAYERS WARM AND SFC TEMPS CLIMB INTO
THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHEST QPF AMTS WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD
END UP ACRS EXTRM SRN/SE VA AND NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NW SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL TO AROUND 30 NW TO THE
UPPER 30S SE. HOWEVER...ANY LIGHT RAIN SHOULD END PRIOR TO ANY
SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AOB 32F. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
PREVAIL SUNDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER LOW FORMS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
AND TRACKS NE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME TEMPERATURES
APPEAR WARM ENOUGH FOR ONLY RAIN. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF
MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT SUNDAY NIGHT. MID-LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH MILDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
BY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITION THROUGH THE FCST PRD WITH ONLY BKN CIRRUS CLOUDS
XPCTD. WNDS WILL OR SHORTLY SHFT TO THE NORTH (AOB 10 KTS) AS TROF
MOVES EASTA CROSS THE RGN.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES FRIDAY. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY WITH A CHC FOR IFR
CNDTNS IN LGHT RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA
SUNDAY BUT EASTERLY FLOW COULD MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS.

&&

.MARINE...
WENT AHEAD AND HOISTED A SCA FOR THE LOWER & MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY
GIVEN THE LATEST DATA SUGGESTS WINDS INCREASE TO BTWN 15-20 KT
ONCE THE WEAK TROF PASSES ACROSS THE AREA OVR THE NEXT FEW HRS.
BUMPED UP WAVES AS WELL THRU THE ERLY MORNING HRS. OTW...NO OTH
CHANGES WITH ERLY AM UPDATE.

PVS DSCN:
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES BY TO THE N TONIGHT FOLLOWED
BY SHALLOW CAA ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF THE MARINE AREA. THE
CURRENT SCA FOR THE NRN OCEAN ZONES WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE NRN
TWO BAY ZONES. A 20-25KT NW WIND IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN OCEAN
ZONES...WHICH COULD BRIEFLY BUILD SEAS TO 4-5FT OUT NEAR 20NM.
GENERALLY EXPECTING LOW-END (15-20KT) SCA CONDITIONS IN THE NRN BAY
ZONES. SIMILAR CONDITIONS PERSIST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE WIND
GRADUALLY DECREASING. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ENE TO IMMEDIATELY OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW
TRACKS NE OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO
SPECULATE ON THE POTENTIAL OF SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...AJZ/MPR






000
FXUS61 KRNK 180453
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1153 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN OVERALL DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.
PERIODS OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL SKIRT THE FORECAST
AREA PER MOISTURE FESTERING OVER TEXAS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP OVER TEXAS BY FRIDAY...MOVING NORTHEAST
AND PROVIDING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1000 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST ON TRACK THIS EVENING...DEALING WITH HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND LOWER CLOUDS OVER WRN SLOPES OF SE
WV/FAR SW VA AND PORTIONS OF THE NC MTNS. MOISTURE IS SCANT PER
00Z RNK SOUNDING...AND PER EARLIER FORECAST MAY ONLY SEE PATCHY
FZDZ AT TIMES THRU EARLY OVERNIGHT IN THE WRN MTNS OF GREENBRIER
COUNTY. NOTHING OF CONSEQUENCE...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE OFF
AND ON CIRRUS OVERNIGHT IN THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH SKIES
STAYING MAINLY CLEAR TO PC...AS MOST OF THE CIRRUS HAS BEEN THIN.

LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S FAR WEST...TO LOWER 30S
SOUTHEAST. WIND STAYING UP WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM DROPPING
FURTHER.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...



BY THURSDAY...AREA OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE
OVER TX/OK WILL GET CAUGHT UP IN THE FAST WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...QUICKLY ZIPPING ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND REACHING OUR
FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE CONFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT HOWEVER...WILL SQUASH ANY CHANCE FOR ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIP...ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES OR
FLURRIES...A TRACE EVENT. WITH MORE CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
GET NEARLY AS WARM AS THEY DID WEDNESDAY...TOPPING OUT IN THE 40S
AS OPPOSED TO THE 50S...A CHANGE OF 10 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE QUICKLY OFF EAST COAST.
MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER WILL CLEAR FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL FILL
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MAV GUIDANCE USED FOR MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES THIS TIME FRAME.

WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A COMPACT BUT WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. MODELS TRACK THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THEN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. SPEED AND TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM ON THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE STILL REASONABLE. THIS BRING THE
BEST POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN ON PREVIOUS RUNS. BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND IS
MAINLY ON SATURDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND. ON SATURDAY THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRANSITION
FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS
WILL BRING WINDS AROUND TO THE EAST THEN NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION ON
SATURDAY WILL HELP ENHANCE AND MAINTAIN AN IN-SITU WEDGE. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH DENDRITIC GROWTH THROUGH
21Z/4PM SATURDAY THEN MAINLY RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN AFTER THAT. ONLY
SITE THAT WAS CLEARLY COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW FOR FROM THE ONSET
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WAS NEAR HOT SPRINGS. NAM WAS WARMER WITH
THE WARM LAYER ALOFT. LEANING TOWARD COOLER GFS FOR THE EXPECTED
TEMPERATURE PROFILE. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL HAVE A NON-DIURNAL PROFILE.&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN BASED UPON THE VARIOUS MODELS. HOWEVER...THESE SAME
MODELS OFFER ENOUGH DIFFERENCES TO MAKE THE DETAILS OF THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER ENOUGH OF CHALLENGE THAT CONFIDENCE IN THE SPECIFICS IS NOT
HIGH.

ON SUNDAY...THE CENTER OF SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT SYSTEM WILL TO OUR
EAST ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT WILL BE ALONG THE EAST COAST FROM
NORTH CAROLINA TO FLORIDA. WHAT REMAINS AS A QUESTION MARK IS
WHETHER OR NOT ANOTHER WAVE ALONG THIS SAME BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
PROGRESS FROM GEORGIA NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST AND DRAW MOISTURE
BACK INTO AT LEAST THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THEN...BY
MONDAY...THIS SAME LOW MAY OR MAY NOT STRENGTHEN AND DEEPEN AS
ANOTHER CLOSED COASTAL LOW OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA.
DEPENDING UPON HOW MUCH OR LITTLE THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS WILL CORRELATE
TO HOW LONG ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION REMAINS OVER OUR REGION.
THE PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE AREA IS ALSO A QUESTION. EACH
MODEL HAS A DIFFERENT TAKE ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WARM NOSE OVER
OUR REGION. THE ONLY CONSISTENT ELEMENT IS THE EXISTENCE OF A WARM
NOSE. GIVEN THIS...WILL OFFER RAIN VERSUS FREEZING RAIN FORECAST
DURING THE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THOUGH WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE...MAINLY
RANGING IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OF BRINGING A
CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
FROM THAT POINT...A DEEP LONGITUDINAL TROUGH DEVELOPS SOUTH TO THE
GULF OF MEXICO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASING MOISTURE
FETCH. BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND
ECWMF CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH AND
NEGATIVELY TILT THE FEATURE SO THAT THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO OFF
THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS...COINCIDENT TO THE POSITION OF THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT....WITH THE TRIPLE POINT PASSING
SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION. THIS PAINTS A PICTURE OF
VERY ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH PLENTY OF SHOWERS...VERY GUSTY...IF NOT DAMAGING...
WINDS...AND IF THE TRIPLE POINT PROGNOSTIC IS ACCURATE...SEVERE
WEATHER...OR AT LEAST A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER...OVER OR VERY
CLOSE TO OUR REGION OF THE COUNTRY. HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO STILL IS
DAY 6 INTO DAY 7 OF THE FORECAST...AND THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME FOR
CHANGES IN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS TO TREND TOWARD A LESS AGGRESSIVE
SYSTEM. GIVEN THIS...WILL OFFER A FORECAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY THAT OFFERS INCREASING CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN
     WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ON TUESDAY...WITH MODERATE RAIN
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.
TIMING OF THE PUSH OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION AS WELL AS THE
MAGNITUDE OF THAT COLDER AIR VARIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECWMF.
HOWEVER...THE FORECAST WILL ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR COLD ENOUGH
AIR TO REACH WESTERN...HIGHER PARTS OF THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL TREND MILDER
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY MAY BE A BIT MILDER IN THE
EAST...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE WEST AS COMPARED TO TUESDAY. ALL
DAYS OF THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN BASED UPON THE VARIOUS MODELS. HOWEVER...THESE SAME
MODELS OFFER ENOUGH DIFFERENCES TO MAKE THE DETAILS OF THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER ENOUGH OF CHALLENGE THAT CONFIDENCE IN THE SPECIFICS IS NOT
HIGH.

ON SUNDAY...THE CENTER OF SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT SYSTEM WILL TO OUR
EAST ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT WILL BE ALONG THE EAST COAST FROM
NORTH CAROLINA TO FLORIDA. WHAT REMAINS AS A QUESTION MARK IS
WHETHER OR NOT ANOTHER WAVE ALONG THIS SAME BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
PROGRESS FROM GEORGIA NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST AND DRAW MOISTURE
BACK INTO AT LEAST THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THEN...BY
MONDAY...THIS SAME LOW MAY OR MAY NOT STRENGTHEN AND DEEPEN AS
ANOTHER CLOSED COASTAL LOW OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA.
DEPENDING UPON HOW MUCH OR LITTLE THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS WILL CORRELATE
TO HOW LONG ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION REMAINS OVER OUR REGION.
THE PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE AREA IS ALSO A QUESTION. EACH
MODEL HAS A DIFFERENT TAKE ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WARM NOSE OVER
OUR REGION. THE ONLY CONSISTENT ELEMENT IS THE EXISTENCE OF A WARM
NOSE. GIVEN THIS...WILL OFFER RAIN VERSUS FREEZING RAIN FORECAST
DURING THE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THOUGH WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE...MAINLY
RANGING IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OF BRINGING A
CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
FROM THAT POINT...A DEEP LONGITUDINAL TROUGH DEVELOPS SOUTH TO THE
GULF OF MEXICO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASING MOISTURE
FETCH. BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND
ECWMF CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH AND
NEGATIVELY TILT THE FEATURE SO THAT THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO OFF
THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS...COINCIDENT TO THE POSITION OF THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT....WITH THE TRIPLE POINT PASSING
SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION. THIS PAINTS A PICTURE OF
VERY ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH PLENTY OF SHOWERS...VERY GUSTY...IF NOT DAMAGING...
WINDS...AND IF THE TRIPLE POINT PROGNOSTIC IS ACCURATE...SEVERE
WEATHER...OR AT LEAST A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER...OVER OR VERY
CLOSE TO OUR REGION OF THE COUNTRY. HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO STILL IS
DAY 6 INTO DAY 7 OF THE FORECAST...AND THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME FOR
CHANGES IN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS TO TREND TOWARD A LESS AGGRESSIVE
SYSTEM. GIVEN THIS...WILL OFFER A FORECAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY THAT OFFERS INCREASING CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN
     WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ON TUESDAY...WITH MODERATE RAIN
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.
TIMING OF THE PUSH OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION AS WELL AS THE
MAGNITUDE OF THAT COLDER AIR VARIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECWMF.
HOWEVER...THE FORECAST WILL ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR COLD ENOUGH
AIR TO REACH WESTERN...HIGHER PARTS OF THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL TREND MILDER
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY MAY BE A BIT MILDER IN THE
EAST...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE WEST AS COMPARED TO TUESDAY. ALL
DAYS OF THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1150 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

MOST OF THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE THOSE AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND
WEST OF A KBLF-KLWB LINE. THINK LWB WILL SCATTER OUT WITH ONLY A
TEMPO FOR BKN MVFR THROUGH 08Z.

MODELS FAVOR BLF LIFTING TO VFR AFTER 15Z. WINDS WILL ALSO WEAKEN
THROUGH THURSDAY.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY LOOK RELATIVELY BENIGN.

THE FRI NIGHT-SAT SYSTEM NOW HAS TRENDED WEAKER BUT WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED AS IT WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF SUB VFR
WINTRY WEATHER ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST SAT.

AVIATION INTERESTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION AS LATER
FORECASTS BECOME AVAILABLE. THIS WILL LIKELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON AIR
TRAVEL OVER THE WEEKEND...FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
CAROLINAS NORTH TO THE MID ATLANTIC.

ON THE HEELS OF THIS FRIDAY/SATURDAY SYSTEM WILL BE ANOTHER SYSTEM
TO POTENTIALLY IMPACT MAINLY THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE REGION
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
HEAD NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH SCATTERED PRECIPITATION ON
ITS WESTERN FLANKS ENTERING THE REGION. AT THIS POINT A WINTRY MIX
IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...DS/PM/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 180453
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1153 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN OVERALL DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.
PERIODS OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL SKIRT THE FORECAST
AREA PER MOISTURE FESTERING OVER TEXAS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP OVER TEXAS BY FRIDAY...MOVING NORTHEAST
AND PROVIDING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1000 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST ON TRACK THIS EVENING...DEALING WITH HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND LOWER CLOUDS OVER WRN SLOPES OF SE
WV/FAR SW VA AND PORTIONS OF THE NC MTNS. MOISTURE IS SCANT PER
00Z RNK SOUNDING...AND PER EARLIER FORECAST MAY ONLY SEE PATCHY
FZDZ AT TIMES THRU EARLY OVERNIGHT IN THE WRN MTNS OF GREENBRIER
COUNTY. NOTHING OF CONSEQUENCE...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE OFF
AND ON CIRRUS OVERNIGHT IN THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH SKIES
STAYING MAINLY CLEAR TO PC...AS MOST OF THE CIRRUS HAS BEEN THIN.

LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S FAR WEST...TO LOWER 30S
SOUTHEAST. WIND STAYING UP WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM DROPPING
FURTHER.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...



BY THURSDAY...AREA OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE
OVER TX/OK WILL GET CAUGHT UP IN THE FAST WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...QUICKLY ZIPPING ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND REACHING OUR
FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE CONFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT HOWEVER...WILL SQUASH ANY CHANCE FOR ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIP...ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES OR
FLURRIES...A TRACE EVENT. WITH MORE CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
GET NEARLY AS WARM AS THEY DID WEDNESDAY...TOPPING OUT IN THE 40S
AS OPPOSED TO THE 50S...A CHANGE OF 10 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE QUICKLY OFF EAST COAST.
MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER WILL CLEAR FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL FILL
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MAV GUIDANCE USED FOR MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES THIS TIME FRAME.

WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A COMPACT BUT WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. MODELS TRACK THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THEN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. SPEED AND TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM ON THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE STILL REASONABLE. THIS BRING THE
BEST POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN ON PREVIOUS RUNS. BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND IS
MAINLY ON SATURDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND. ON SATURDAY THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRANSITION
FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS
WILL BRING WINDS AROUND TO THE EAST THEN NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION ON
SATURDAY WILL HELP ENHANCE AND MAINTAIN AN IN-SITU WEDGE. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH DENDRITIC GROWTH THROUGH
21Z/4PM SATURDAY THEN MAINLY RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN AFTER THAT. ONLY
SITE THAT WAS CLEARLY COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW FOR FROM THE ONSET
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WAS NEAR HOT SPRINGS. NAM WAS WARMER WITH
THE WARM LAYER ALOFT. LEANING TOWARD COOLER GFS FOR THE EXPECTED
TEMPERATURE PROFILE. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL HAVE A NON-DIURNAL PROFILE.&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN BASED UPON THE VARIOUS MODELS. HOWEVER...THESE SAME
MODELS OFFER ENOUGH DIFFERENCES TO MAKE THE DETAILS OF THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER ENOUGH OF CHALLENGE THAT CONFIDENCE IN THE SPECIFICS IS NOT
HIGH.

ON SUNDAY...THE CENTER OF SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT SYSTEM WILL TO OUR
EAST ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT WILL BE ALONG THE EAST COAST FROM
NORTH CAROLINA TO FLORIDA. WHAT REMAINS AS A QUESTION MARK IS
WHETHER OR NOT ANOTHER WAVE ALONG THIS SAME BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
PROGRESS FROM GEORGIA NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST AND DRAW MOISTURE
BACK INTO AT LEAST THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THEN...BY
MONDAY...THIS SAME LOW MAY OR MAY NOT STRENGTHEN AND DEEPEN AS
ANOTHER CLOSED COASTAL LOW OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA.
DEPENDING UPON HOW MUCH OR LITTLE THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS WILL CORRELATE
TO HOW LONG ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION REMAINS OVER OUR REGION.
THE PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE AREA IS ALSO A QUESTION. EACH
MODEL HAS A DIFFERENT TAKE ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WARM NOSE OVER
OUR REGION. THE ONLY CONSISTENT ELEMENT IS THE EXISTENCE OF A WARM
NOSE. GIVEN THIS...WILL OFFER RAIN VERSUS FREEZING RAIN FORECAST
DURING THE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THOUGH WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE...MAINLY
RANGING IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OF BRINGING A
CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
FROM THAT POINT...A DEEP LONGITUDINAL TROUGH DEVELOPS SOUTH TO THE
GULF OF MEXICO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASING MOISTURE
FETCH. BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND
ECWMF CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH AND
NEGATIVELY TILT THE FEATURE SO THAT THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO OFF
THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS...COINCIDENT TO THE POSITION OF THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT....WITH THE TRIPLE POINT PASSING
SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION. THIS PAINTS A PICTURE OF
VERY ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH PLENTY OF SHOWERS...VERY GUSTY...IF NOT DAMAGING...
WINDS...AND IF THE TRIPLE POINT PROGNOSTIC IS ACCURATE...SEVERE
WEATHER...OR AT LEAST A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER...OVER OR VERY
CLOSE TO OUR REGION OF THE COUNTRY. HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO STILL IS
DAY 6 INTO DAY 7 OF THE FORECAST...AND THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME FOR
CHANGES IN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS TO TREND TOWARD A LESS AGGRESSIVE
SYSTEM. GIVEN THIS...WILL OFFER A FORECAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY THAT OFFERS INCREASING CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN
     WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ON TUESDAY...WITH MODERATE RAIN
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.
TIMING OF THE PUSH OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION AS WELL AS THE
MAGNITUDE OF THAT COLDER AIR VARIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECWMF.
HOWEVER...THE FORECAST WILL ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR COLD ENOUGH
AIR TO REACH WESTERN...HIGHER PARTS OF THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL TREND MILDER
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY MAY BE A BIT MILDER IN THE
EAST...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE WEST AS COMPARED TO TUESDAY. ALL
DAYS OF THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN BASED UPON THE VARIOUS MODELS. HOWEVER...THESE SAME
MODELS OFFER ENOUGH DIFFERENCES TO MAKE THE DETAILS OF THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER ENOUGH OF CHALLENGE THAT CONFIDENCE IN THE SPECIFICS IS NOT
HIGH.

ON SUNDAY...THE CENTER OF SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT SYSTEM WILL TO OUR
EAST ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT WILL BE ALONG THE EAST COAST FROM
NORTH CAROLINA TO FLORIDA. WHAT REMAINS AS A QUESTION MARK IS
WHETHER OR NOT ANOTHER WAVE ALONG THIS SAME BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
PROGRESS FROM GEORGIA NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST AND DRAW MOISTURE
BACK INTO AT LEAST THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THEN...BY
MONDAY...THIS SAME LOW MAY OR MAY NOT STRENGTHEN AND DEEPEN AS
ANOTHER CLOSED COASTAL LOW OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA.
DEPENDING UPON HOW MUCH OR LITTLE THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS WILL CORRELATE
TO HOW LONG ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION REMAINS OVER OUR REGION.
THE PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE AREA IS ALSO A QUESTION. EACH
MODEL HAS A DIFFERENT TAKE ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WARM NOSE OVER
OUR REGION. THE ONLY CONSISTENT ELEMENT IS THE EXISTENCE OF A WARM
NOSE. GIVEN THIS...WILL OFFER RAIN VERSUS FREEZING RAIN FORECAST
DURING THE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THOUGH WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE...MAINLY
RANGING IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OF BRINGING A
CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
FROM THAT POINT...A DEEP LONGITUDINAL TROUGH DEVELOPS SOUTH TO THE
GULF OF MEXICO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASING MOISTURE
FETCH. BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND
ECWMF CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH AND
NEGATIVELY TILT THE FEATURE SO THAT THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO OFF
THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS...COINCIDENT TO THE POSITION OF THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT....WITH THE TRIPLE POINT PASSING
SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION. THIS PAINTS A PICTURE OF
VERY ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH PLENTY OF SHOWERS...VERY GUSTY...IF NOT DAMAGING...
WINDS...AND IF THE TRIPLE POINT PROGNOSTIC IS ACCURATE...SEVERE
WEATHER...OR AT LEAST A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER...OVER OR VERY
CLOSE TO OUR REGION OF THE COUNTRY. HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO STILL IS
DAY 6 INTO DAY 7 OF THE FORECAST...AND THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME FOR
CHANGES IN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS TO TREND TOWARD A LESS AGGRESSIVE
SYSTEM. GIVEN THIS...WILL OFFER A FORECAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY THAT OFFERS INCREASING CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN
     WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ON TUESDAY...WITH MODERATE RAIN
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.
TIMING OF THE PUSH OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION AS WELL AS THE
MAGNITUDE OF THAT COLDER AIR VARIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECWMF.
HOWEVER...THE FORECAST WILL ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR COLD ENOUGH
AIR TO REACH WESTERN...HIGHER PARTS OF THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL TREND MILDER
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY MAY BE A BIT MILDER IN THE
EAST...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE WEST AS COMPARED TO TUESDAY. ALL
DAYS OF THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1150 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

MOST OF THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE THOSE AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND
WEST OF A KBLF-KLWB LINE. THINK LWB WILL SCATTER OUT WITH ONLY A
TEMPO FOR BKN MVFR THROUGH 08Z.

MODELS FAVOR BLF LIFTING TO VFR AFTER 15Z. WINDS WILL ALSO WEAKEN
THROUGH THURSDAY.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY LOOK RELATIVELY BENIGN.

THE FRI NIGHT-SAT SYSTEM NOW HAS TRENDED WEAKER BUT WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED AS IT WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF SUB VFR
WINTRY WEATHER ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST SAT.

AVIATION INTERESTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION AS LATER
FORECASTS BECOME AVAILABLE. THIS WILL LIKELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON AIR
TRAVEL OVER THE WEEKEND...FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
CAROLINAS NORTH TO THE MID ATLANTIC.

ON THE HEELS OF THIS FRIDAY/SATURDAY SYSTEM WILL BE ANOTHER SYSTEM
TO POTENTIALLY IMPACT MAINLY THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE REGION
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
HEAD NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH SCATTERED PRECIPITATION ON
ITS WESTERN FLANKS ENTERING THE REGION. AT THIS POINT A WINTRY MIX
IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...DS/PM/WP



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 180334
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1034 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
FRIDAY. ONE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF COAST
STATES EAST NORTHEAST TO JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
SATURDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SFC TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL AREA WITH LIGHT LOW-LEVEL WEST-
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT AS THE SFC TROUGH WEAKENS. THIS WILL ALLOW DRIER
AND COLDER AIR TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
DROP OF 30M TONIGHT WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S. SOME LOCALS OVER THE PIEDMONT EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE
UPPER 20S. INCREASING WINDS ALOFT AND A PASSING UPPER LOW TO THE
NORTH WILL RESULT IN HIGH CLOUDS THRU MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT...THINNING LATE. CLOUD COVER NOT EXPECTED TO BE THICK
ENOUGH TO LIMIT TEMPS. DRIER AIR WILL INHIBIT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THU INTO EARLY FRI NGT...AS DRY/ZONAL
FLO DOMINATES THE REGION AND SFC HI PRES BLDS ACRS THE GRT LKS
INTO SE CANADA. SHRTWV ENERGY TRACKING FM W-E IN FAST FLO ALOFT
WILL PRODUCE A LITTLE MORE CLOUDINESS THU NGT INTO FRI MORNG.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY THU THRU FRI...WITH HI
TEMPS RANGING THRU THE 40S BOTH DAYS. LOWS THU NGT MAINLY IN THE
UPR 20S TO LWR 30S.

FRI NGT THRU SAT...LEANING CLOSER TO THE SLGTLY FASTER GFS...ESPLY
REGARDING ONSET/OVERSPREADING OF PCPN ACRS THE REGION. AT THIS
TIME...WENT CLOSER TO THE GFS THICKNESSES/MDL SOUNDINGS...ESPLY
DURING SAT MORNG WITH THE ONSET OF PCPN...WHERE A CHC OF SLEET
(MAYBE SOME SNOW) WAS ADDED GENERALLY N OF A SOUTH HILL TO
WILLIAMSBURG LINE. BY LATE MORNG OR EARLY AFTN...PCPN WILL BECOME
JUST RAIN EVERYWHERE...AS LAYERS WARM AND SFC TEMPS CLIMB INTO
THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHEST QPF AMTS WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD
END UP ACRS EXTRM SRN/SE VA AND NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NW SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL TO AROUND 30 NW TO THE
UPPER 30S SE. HOWEVER...ANY LIGHT RAIN SHOULD END PRIOR TO ANY
SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AOB 32F. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
PREVAIL SUNDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER LOW FORMS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
AND TRACKS NE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME TEMPERATURES
APPEAR WARM ENOUGH FOR ONLY RAIN. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF
MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT SUNDAY NIGHT. MID-LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH MILDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
BY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE 00Z TAF
PERIOD. WEST WINDS SHIFT TO N/NW DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS AS A
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY
APPEAR FROM TIME TO TIME.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN AND PSBL IFR CONDS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY BUT EASTERLY FLOW
COULD MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES BY TO THE N TONIGHT FOLLOWED
BY SHALLOW CAA ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF THE MARINE AREA. THE
CURRENT SCA FOR THE NRN OCEAN ZONES WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE NRN
TWO BAY ZONES. A 20-25KT NW WIND IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN OCEAN
ZONES...WHICH COULD BRIEFLY BUILD SEAS TO 4-5FT OUT NEAR 20NM.
GENERALLY EXPECTING LOW-END (15-20KT) SCA CONDITIONS IN THE NRN BAY
ZONES. SIMILAR CONDITIONS PERSIST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE WIND
GRADUALLY DECREASING. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ENE TO IMMEDIATELY OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW
TRACKS NE OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO
SPECULATE ON THE POTENTIAL OF SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ630-631-
     650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 180334
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1034 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
FRIDAY. ONE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF COAST
STATES EAST NORTHEAST TO JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
SATURDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SFC TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL AREA WITH LIGHT LOW-LEVEL WEST-
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT AS THE SFC TROUGH WEAKENS. THIS WILL ALLOW DRIER
AND COLDER AIR TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
DROP OF 30M TONIGHT WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S. SOME LOCALS OVER THE PIEDMONT EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE
UPPER 20S. INCREASING WINDS ALOFT AND A PASSING UPPER LOW TO THE
NORTH WILL RESULT IN HIGH CLOUDS THRU MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT...THINNING LATE. CLOUD COVER NOT EXPECTED TO BE THICK
ENOUGH TO LIMIT TEMPS. DRIER AIR WILL INHIBIT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THU INTO EARLY FRI NGT...AS DRY/ZONAL
FLO DOMINATES THE REGION AND SFC HI PRES BLDS ACRS THE GRT LKS
INTO SE CANADA. SHRTWV ENERGY TRACKING FM W-E IN FAST FLO ALOFT
WILL PRODUCE A LITTLE MORE CLOUDINESS THU NGT INTO FRI MORNG.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY THU THRU FRI...WITH HI
TEMPS RANGING THRU THE 40S BOTH DAYS. LOWS THU NGT MAINLY IN THE
UPR 20S TO LWR 30S.

FRI NGT THRU SAT...LEANING CLOSER TO THE SLGTLY FASTER GFS...ESPLY
REGARDING ONSET/OVERSPREADING OF PCPN ACRS THE REGION. AT THIS
TIME...WENT CLOSER TO THE GFS THICKNESSES/MDL SOUNDINGS...ESPLY
DURING SAT MORNG WITH THE ONSET OF PCPN...WHERE A CHC OF SLEET
(MAYBE SOME SNOW) WAS ADDED GENERALLY N OF A SOUTH HILL TO
WILLIAMSBURG LINE. BY LATE MORNG OR EARLY AFTN...PCPN WILL BECOME
JUST RAIN EVERYWHERE...AS LAYERS WARM AND SFC TEMPS CLIMB INTO
THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHEST QPF AMTS WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD
END UP ACRS EXTRM SRN/SE VA AND NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NW SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL TO AROUND 30 NW TO THE
UPPER 30S SE. HOWEVER...ANY LIGHT RAIN SHOULD END PRIOR TO ANY
SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AOB 32F. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
PREVAIL SUNDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER LOW FORMS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
AND TRACKS NE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME TEMPERATURES
APPEAR WARM ENOUGH FOR ONLY RAIN. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF
MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT SUNDAY NIGHT. MID-LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH MILDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
BY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE 00Z TAF
PERIOD. WEST WINDS SHIFT TO N/NW DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS AS A
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY
APPEAR FROM TIME TO TIME.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN AND PSBL IFR CONDS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY BUT EASTERLY FLOW
COULD MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES BY TO THE N TONIGHT FOLLOWED
BY SHALLOW CAA ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF THE MARINE AREA. THE
CURRENT SCA FOR THE NRN OCEAN ZONES WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE NRN
TWO BAY ZONES. A 20-25KT NW WIND IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN OCEAN
ZONES...WHICH COULD BRIEFLY BUILD SEAS TO 4-5FT OUT NEAR 20NM.
GENERALLY EXPECTING LOW-END (15-20KT) SCA CONDITIONS IN THE NRN BAY
ZONES. SIMILAR CONDITIONS PERSIST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE WIND
GRADUALLY DECREASING. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ENE TO IMMEDIATELY OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW
TRACKS NE OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO
SPECULATE ON THE POTENTIAL OF SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ630-631-
     650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ






000
FXUS61 KRNK 180314
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1014 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN OVERALL DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.
PERIODS OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL SKIRT THE FORECAST
AREA PER MOISTURE FESTERING OVER TEXAS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP OVER TEXAS BY FRIDAY...MOVING NORTHEAST
AND PROVIDING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1000 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST ON TRACK THIS EVENING...DEALING WITH HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND LOWER CLOUDS OVER WRN SLOPES OF SE
WV/FAR SW VA AND PORTIONS OF THE NC MTNS. MOISTURE IS SCANT PER
00Z RNK SOUNDING...AND PER EARLIER FORECAST MAY ONLY SEE PATCHY
FZDZ AT TIMES THRU EARLY OVERNIGHT IN THE WRN MTNS OF GREENBRIER
COUNTY. NOTHING OF CONSEQUENCE...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE OFF
AND ON CIRRUS OVERNIGHT IN THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH SKIES
STAYING MAINLY CLEAR TO PC...AS MOST OF THE CIRRUS HAS BEEN THIN.

LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S FAR WEST...TO LOWER 30S
SOUTHEAST. WIND STAYING UP WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM DROPPING
FURTHER.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...



BY THURSDAY...AREA OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE
OVER TX/OK WILL GET CAUGHT UP IN THE FAST WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...QUICKLY ZIPPING ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND REACHING OUR
FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE CONFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT HOWEVER...WILL SQUASH ANY CHANCE FOR ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIP...ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES OR
FLURRIES...A TRACE EVENT. WITH MORE CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
GET NEARLY AS WARM AS THEY DID WEDNESDAY...TOPPING OUT IN THE 40S
AS OPPOSED TO THE 50S...A CHANGE OF 10 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE QUICKLY OFF EAST COAST.
MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER WILL CLEAR FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL FILL
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MAV GUIDANCE USED FOR MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES THIS TIME FRAME.

WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A COMPACT BUT WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. MODELS TRACK THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THEN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. SPEED AND TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM ON THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE STILL REASONABLE. THIS BRING THE
BEST POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN ON PREVIOUS RUNS. BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND IS
MAINLY ON SATURDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND. ON SATURDAY THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRANSITION
FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS
WILL BRING WINDS AROUND TO THE EAST THEN NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION ON
SATURDAY WILL HELP ENHANCE AND MAINTAIN AN IN-SITU WEDGE. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH DENDRITIC GROWTH THROUGH
21Z/4PM SATURDAY THEN MAINLY RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN AFTER THAT. ONLY
SITE THAT WAS CLEARLY COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW FOR FROM THE ONSET
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WAS NEAR HOT SPRINGS. NAM WAS WARMER WITH
THE WARM LAYER ALOFT. LEANING TOWARD COOLER GFS FOR THE EXPECTED
TEMPERATURE PROFILE. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL HAVE A NON-DIURNAL PROFILE.&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN BASED UPON THE VARIOUS MODELS. HOWEVER...THESE SAME
MODELS OFFER ENOUGH DIFFERENCES TO MAKE THE DETAILS OF THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER ENOUGH OF CHALLENGE THAT CONFIDENCE IN THE SPECIFICS IS NOT
HIGH.

ON SUNDAY...THE CENTER OF SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT SYSTEM WILL TO OUR
EAST ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT WILL BE ALONG THE EAST COAST FROM
NORTH CAROLINA TO FLORIDA. WHAT REMAINS AS A QUESTION MARK IS
WHETHER OR NOT ANOTHER WAVE ALONG THIS SAME BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
PROGRESS FROM GEORGIA NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST AND DRAW MOISTURE
BACK INTO AT LEAST THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THEN...BY
MONDAY...THIS SAME LOW MAY OR MAY NOT STRENGTHEN AND DEEPEN AS
ANOTHER CLOSED COASTAL LOW OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA.
DEPENDING UPON HOW MUCH OR LITTLE THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS WILL CORRELATE
TO HOW LONG ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION REMAINS OVER OUR REGION.
THE PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE AREA IS ALSO A QUESTION. EACH
MODEL HAS A DIFFERENT TAKE ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WARM NOSE OVER
OUR REGION. THE ONLY CONSISTENT ELEMENT IS THE EXISTENCE OF A WARM
NOSE. GIVEN THIS...WILL OFFER RAIN VERSUS FREEZING RAIN FORECAST
DURING THE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THOUGH WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE...MAINLY
RANGING IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OF BRINGING A
CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
FROM THAT POINT...A DEEP LONGITUDINAL TROUGH DEVELOPS SOUTH TO THE
GULF OF MEXICO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASING MOISTURE
FETCH. BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND
ECWMF CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH AND
NEGATIVELY TILT THE FEATURE SO THAT THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO OFF
THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS...COINCIDENT TO THE POSITION OF THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT....WITH THE TRIPLE POINT PASSING
SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION. THIS PAINTS A PICTURE OF
VERY ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH PLENTY OF SHOWERS...VERY GUSTY...IF NOT DAMAGING...
WINDS...AND IF THE TRIPLE POINT PROGNOSTIC IS ACCURATE...SEVERE
WEATHER...OR AT LEAST A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER...OVER OR VERY
CLOSE TO OUR REGION OF THE COUNTRY. HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO STILL IS
DAY 6 INTO DAY 7 OF THE FORECAST...AND THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME FOR
CHANGES IN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS TO TREND TOWARD A LESS AGGRESSIVE
SYSTEM. GIVEN THIS...WILL OFFER A FORECAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY THAT OFFERS INCREASING CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN
     WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ON TUESDAY...WITH MODERATE RAIN
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.
TIMING OF THE PUSH OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION AS WELL AS THE
MAGNITUDE OF THAT COLDER AIR VARIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECWMF.
HOWEVER...THE FORECAST WILL ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR COLD ENOUGH
AIR TO REACH WESTERN...HIGHER PARTS OF THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL TREND MILDER
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY MAY BE A BIT MILDER IN THE
EAST...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE WEST AS COMPARED TO TUESDAY. ALL
DAYS OF THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN BASED UPON THE VARIOUS MODELS. HOWEVER...THESE SAME
MODELS OFFER ENOUGH DIFFERENCES TO MAKE THE DETAILS OF THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER ENOUGH OF CHALLENGE THAT CONFIDENCE IN THE SPECIFICS IS NOT
HIGH.

ON SUNDAY...THE CENTER OF SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT SYSTEM WILL TO OUR
EAST ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT WILL BE ALONG THE EAST COAST FROM
NORTH CAROLINA TO FLORIDA. WHAT REMAINS AS A QUESTION MARK IS
WHETHER OR NOT ANOTHER WAVE ALONG THIS SAME BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
PROGRESS FROM GEORGIA NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST AND DRAW MOISTURE
BACK INTO AT LEAST THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THEN...BY
MONDAY...THIS SAME LOW MAY OR MAY NOT STRENGTHEN AND DEEPEN AS
ANOTHER CLOSED COASTAL LOW OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA.
DEPENDING UPON HOW MUCH OR LITTLE THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS WILL CORRELATE
TO HOW LONG ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION REMAINS OVER OUR REGION.
THE PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE AREA IS ALSO A QUESTION. EACH
MODEL HAS A DIFFERENT TAKE ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WARM NOSE OVER
OUR REGION. THE ONLY CONSISTENT ELEMENT IS THE EXISTENCE OF A WARM
NOSE. GIVEN THIS...WILL OFFER RAIN VERSUS FREEZING RAIN FORECAST
DURING THE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THOUGH WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE...MAINLY
RANGING IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OF BRINGING A
CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
FROM THAT POINT...A DEEP LONGITUDINAL TROUGH DEVELOPS SOUTH TO THE
GULF OF MEXICO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASING MOISTURE
FETCH. BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND
ECWMF CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH AND
NEGATIVELY TILT THE FEATURE SO THAT THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO OFF
THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS...COINCIDENT TO THE POSITION OF THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT....WITH THE TRIPLE POINT PASSING
SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION. THIS PAINTS A PICTURE OF
VERY ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH PLENTY OF SHOWERS...VERY GUSTY...IF NOT DAMAGING...
WINDS...AND IF THE TRIPLE POINT PROGNOSTIC IS ACCURATE...SEVERE
WEATHER...OR AT LEAST A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER...OVER OR VERY
CLOSE TO OUR REGION OF THE COUNTRY. HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO STILL IS
DAY 6 INTO DAY 7 OF THE FORECAST...AND THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME FOR
CHANGES IN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS TO TREND TOWARD A LESS AGGRESSIVE
SYSTEM. GIVEN THIS...WILL OFFER A FORECAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY THAT OFFERS INCREASING CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN
     WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ON TUESDAY...WITH MODERATE RAIN
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.
TIMING OF THE PUSH OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION AS WELL AS THE
MAGNITUDE OF THAT COLDER AIR VARIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECWMF.
HOWEVER...THE FORECAST WILL ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR COLD ENOUGH
AIR TO REACH WESTERN...HIGHER PARTS OF THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL TREND MILDER
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY MAY BE A BIT MILDER IN THE
EAST...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE WEST AS COMPARED TO TUESDAY. ALL
DAYS OF THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 610 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

MOST OF THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE THOSE AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND
WEST OF A KBLF-KLWB LINE. CURRENTLY...THAT AREA IS VFR...BUT WE
EXPECT IFR/MVFR CIGS TO RETURN DURING THE OVERNIGHT. THESE LOW
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER WITH RESULTING VFR ALTOCU AND
CIRRUS FROM THE LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY.

AS OF 130 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY LOOK RELATIVELY BENIGN.

THE FRI NIGHT-SAT SYSTEM NOW HAS TRENDED WEAKER BUT WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED AS IT WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF SUB VFR
WINTRY WEATHER ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST SAT.

AVIATION INTERESTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION AS LATER
FORECASTS BECOME AVAILABLE. THIS WILL LIKELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON AIR
TRAVEL OVER THE WEEKEND...FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
CAROLINAS NORTH TO THE MID ATLANTIC.

ON THE HEELS OF THIS FRIDAY/SATURDAY SYSTEM WILL BE ANOTHER SYSTEM
TO POTENTIALLY IMPACT MAINLY THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE REGION
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
HEAD NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH SCATTERED PRECIPITATION ON
ITS WESTERN FLANKS ENTERING THE REGION. AT THIS POINT A WINTRY MIX
IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...DS/PM



000
FXUS61 KRNK 180314
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1014 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN OVERALL DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.
PERIODS OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL SKIRT THE FORECAST
AREA PER MOISTURE FESTERING OVER TEXAS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP OVER TEXAS BY FRIDAY...MOVING NORTHEAST
AND PROVIDING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1000 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST ON TRACK THIS EVENING...DEALING WITH HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND LOWER CLOUDS OVER WRN SLOPES OF SE
WV/FAR SW VA AND PORTIONS OF THE NC MTNS. MOISTURE IS SCANT PER
00Z RNK SOUNDING...AND PER EARLIER FORECAST MAY ONLY SEE PATCHY
FZDZ AT TIMES THRU EARLY OVERNIGHT IN THE WRN MTNS OF GREENBRIER
COUNTY. NOTHING OF CONSEQUENCE...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE OFF
AND ON CIRRUS OVERNIGHT IN THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH SKIES
STAYING MAINLY CLEAR TO PC...AS MOST OF THE CIRRUS HAS BEEN THIN.

LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S FAR WEST...TO LOWER 30S
SOUTHEAST. WIND STAYING UP WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM DROPPING
FURTHER.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...



BY THURSDAY...AREA OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE
OVER TX/OK WILL GET CAUGHT UP IN THE FAST WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...QUICKLY ZIPPING ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND REACHING OUR
FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE CONFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT HOWEVER...WILL SQUASH ANY CHANCE FOR ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIP...ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES OR
FLURRIES...A TRACE EVENT. WITH MORE CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
GET NEARLY AS WARM AS THEY DID WEDNESDAY...TOPPING OUT IN THE 40S
AS OPPOSED TO THE 50S...A CHANGE OF 10 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE QUICKLY OFF EAST COAST.
MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER WILL CLEAR FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL FILL
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MAV GUIDANCE USED FOR MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES THIS TIME FRAME.

WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A COMPACT BUT WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. MODELS TRACK THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THEN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. SPEED AND TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM ON THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE STILL REASONABLE. THIS BRING THE
BEST POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN ON PREVIOUS RUNS. BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND IS
MAINLY ON SATURDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND. ON SATURDAY THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRANSITION
FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS
WILL BRING WINDS AROUND TO THE EAST THEN NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION ON
SATURDAY WILL HELP ENHANCE AND MAINTAIN AN IN-SITU WEDGE. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH DENDRITIC GROWTH THROUGH
21Z/4PM SATURDAY THEN MAINLY RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN AFTER THAT. ONLY
SITE THAT WAS CLEARLY COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW FOR FROM THE ONSET
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WAS NEAR HOT SPRINGS. NAM WAS WARMER WITH
THE WARM LAYER ALOFT. LEANING TOWARD COOLER GFS FOR THE EXPECTED
TEMPERATURE PROFILE. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL HAVE A NON-DIURNAL PROFILE.&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN BASED UPON THE VARIOUS MODELS. HOWEVER...THESE SAME
MODELS OFFER ENOUGH DIFFERENCES TO MAKE THE DETAILS OF THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER ENOUGH OF CHALLENGE THAT CONFIDENCE IN THE SPECIFICS IS NOT
HIGH.

ON SUNDAY...THE CENTER OF SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT SYSTEM WILL TO OUR
EAST ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT WILL BE ALONG THE EAST COAST FROM
NORTH CAROLINA TO FLORIDA. WHAT REMAINS AS A QUESTION MARK IS
WHETHER OR NOT ANOTHER WAVE ALONG THIS SAME BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
PROGRESS FROM GEORGIA NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST AND DRAW MOISTURE
BACK INTO AT LEAST THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THEN...BY
MONDAY...THIS SAME LOW MAY OR MAY NOT STRENGTHEN AND DEEPEN AS
ANOTHER CLOSED COASTAL LOW OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA.
DEPENDING UPON HOW MUCH OR LITTLE THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS WILL CORRELATE
TO HOW LONG ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION REMAINS OVER OUR REGION.
THE PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE AREA IS ALSO A QUESTION. EACH
MODEL HAS A DIFFERENT TAKE ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WARM NOSE OVER
OUR REGION. THE ONLY CONSISTENT ELEMENT IS THE EXISTENCE OF A WARM
NOSE. GIVEN THIS...WILL OFFER RAIN VERSUS FREEZING RAIN FORECAST
DURING THE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THOUGH WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE...MAINLY
RANGING IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OF BRINGING A
CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
FROM THAT POINT...A DEEP LONGITUDINAL TROUGH DEVELOPS SOUTH TO THE
GULF OF MEXICO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASING MOISTURE
FETCH. BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND
ECWMF CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH AND
NEGATIVELY TILT THE FEATURE SO THAT THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO OFF
THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS...COINCIDENT TO THE POSITION OF THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT....WITH THE TRIPLE POINT PASSING
SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION. THIS PAINTS A PICTURE OF
VERY ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH PLENTY OF SHOWERS...VERY GUSTY...IF NOT DAMAGING...
WINDS...AND IF THE TRIPLE POINT PROGNOSTIC IS ACCURATE...SEVERE
WEATHER...OR AT LEAST A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER...OVER OR VERY
CLOSE TO OUR REGION OF THE COUNTRY. HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO STILL IS
DAY 6 INTO DAY 7 OF THE FORECAST...AND THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME FOR
CHANGES IN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS TO TREND TOWARD A LESS AGGRESSIVE
SYSTEM. GIVEN THIS...WILL OFFER A FORECAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY THAT OFFERS INCREASING CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN
     WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ON TUESDAY...WITH MODERATE RAIN
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.
TIMING OF THE PUSH OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION AS WELL AS THE
MAGNITUDE OF THAT COLDER AIR VARIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECWMF.
HOWEVER...THE FORECAST WILL ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR COLD ENOUGH
AIR TO REACH WESTERN...HIGHER PARTS OF THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL TREND MILDER
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY MAY BE A BIT MILDER IN THE
EAST...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE WEST AS COMPARED TO TUESDAY. ALL
DAYS OF THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN BASED UPON THE VARIOUS MODELS. HOWEVER...THESE SAME
MODELS OFFER ENOUGH DIFFERENCES TO MAKE THE DETAILS OF THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER ENOUGH OF CHALLENGE THAT CONFIDENCE IN THE SPECIFICS IS NOT
HIGH.

ON SUNDAY...THE CENTER OF SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT SYSTEM WILL TO OUR
EAST ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT WILL BE ALONG THE EAST COAST FROM
NORTH CAROLINA TO FLORIDA. WHAT REMAINS AS A QUESTION MARK IS
WHETHER OR NOT ANOTHER WAVE ALONG THIS SAME BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
PROGRESS FROM GEORGIA NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST AND DRAW MOISTURE
BACK INTO AT LEAST THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THEN...BY
MONDAY...THIS SAME LOW MAY OR MAY NOT STRENGTHEN AND DEEPEN AS
ANOTHER CLOSED COASTAL LOW OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA.
DEPENDING UPON HOW MUCH OR LITTLE THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS WILL CORRELATE
TO HOW LONG ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION REMAINS OVER OUR REGION.
THE PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE AREA IS ALSO A QUESTION. EACH
MODEL HAS A DIFFERENT TAKE ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WARM NOSE OVER
OUR REGION. THE ONLY CONSISTENT ELEMENT IS THE EXISTENCE OF A WARM
NOSE. GIVEN THIS...WILL OFFER RAIN VERSUS FREEZING RAIN FORECAST
DURING THE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THOUGH WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE...MAINLY
RANGING IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OF BRINGING A
CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
FROM THAT POINT...A DEEP LONGITUDINAL TROUGH DEVELOPS SOUTH TO THE
GULF OF MEXICO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASING MOISTURE
FETCH. BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND
ECWMF CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH AND
NEGATIVELY TILT THE FEATURE SO THAT THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO OFF
THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS...COINCIDENT TO THE POSITION OF THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT....WITH THE TRIPLE POINT PASSING
SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION. THIS PAINTS A PICTURE OF
VERY ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH PLENTY OF SHOWERS...VERY GUSTY...IF NOT DAMAGING...
WINDS...AND IF THE TRIPLE POINT PROGNOSTIC IS ACCURATE...SEVERE
WEATHER...OR AT LEAST A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER...OVER OR VERY
CLOSE TO OUR REGION OF THE COUNTRY. HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO STILL IS
DAY 6 INTO DAY 7 OF THE FORECAST...AND THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME FOR
CHANGES IN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS TO TREND TOWARD A LESS AGGRESSIVE
SYSTEM. GIVEN THIS...WILL OFFER A FORECAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY THAT OFFERS INCREASING CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN
     WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ON TUESDAY...WITH MODERATE RAIN
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.
TIMING OF THE PUSH OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION AS WELL AS THE
MAGNITUDE OF THAT COLDER AIR VARIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECWMF.
HOWEVER...THE FORECAST WILL ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR COLD ENOUGH
AIR TO REACH WESTERN...HIGHER PARTS OF THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL TREND MILDER
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY MAY BE A BIT MILDER IN THE
EAST...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE WEST AS COMPARED TO TUESDAY. ALL
DAYS OF THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 610 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

MOST OF THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE THOSE AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND
WEST OF A KBLF-KLWB LINE. CURRENTLY...THAT AREA IS VFR...BUT WE
EXPECT IFR/MVFR CIGS TO RETURN DURING THE OVERNIGHT. THESE LOW
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER WITH RESULTING VFR ALTOCU AND
CIRRUS FROM THE LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY.

AS OF 130 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY LOOK RELATIVELY BENIGN.

THE FRI NIGHT-SAT SYSTEM NOW HAS TRENDED WEAKER BUT WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED AS IT WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF SUB VFR
WINTRY WEATHER ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST SAT.

AVIATION INTERESTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION AS LATER
FORECASTS BECOME AVAILABLE. THIS WILL LIKELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON AIR
TRAVEL OVER THE WEEKEND...FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
CAROLINAS NORTH TO THE MID ATLANTIC.

ON THE HEELS OF THIS FRIDAY/SATURDAY SYSTEM WILL BE ANOTHER SYSTEM
TO POTENTIALLY IMPACT MAINLY THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE REGION
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
HEAD NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH SCATTERED PRECIPITATION ON
ITS WESTERN FLANKS ENTERING THE REGION. AT THIS POINT A WINTRY MIX
IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...DS/PM




000
FXUS61 KLWX 180222
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
922 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT..EXCEPT FOR A WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT
WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH
OF THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A SECONDARY LOW IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LARGE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO DEVELOP IN THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 02Z...999MB SFC LOW OVER SRN NOVA SCOTIA AND 1031MB SFC HIGH
OVER FAR WRN ONTARIO. 4MB SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS ACROSS
THE CWA...ALLOWING OCCASIONAL 20 MPH NW GUSTS. MIXING PERSISTS
OVER NIGHT...SO MINS LIMITED IN SPITE OF RATHER CLEAR CONDITIONS
SOUTH OF THE FIRST TIER OF COUNTIES FROM THE MASON-DIXON LINE.
WILL RAISE MIN TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES FOR ALL BUT SHELTERED
VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SUNNY START TO THURSDAY WITH MID-LEVEL TROUGH ENTERING THE AREA
IN THE AFTERNOON. COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME SNOW FLAKES FOR THE
ALLEGHENIES...BUT JUST HIGHER CLOUDS ELSEWHERE. DOWNSLOPING WLY FLOW
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH...BUT COLDER AIR MASS IN PLACE...ONLY
MID 40S FOR MAX TEMPS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TOWARD NEWFOUNDLAND
THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A
DAMPENING SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH IN THE FAST SOUTHERN STREAM.
DESPITE A FEW MODELS TRYING TO PRODUCE QPF IN UPSLOPE AREAS...THINK
THE MOISTURE PROFILES ONLY SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
GOOD GUIDANCE AGREEMENT WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 20S
IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 30S METROS/EAST.

DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS IN FULLY. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL WINDS TAKE ON A BIT MORE
OF A NW DIRECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH...LEADING TO WEAK CAA.
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S. HIGH/MID CLOUDS INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. SPEED/THICKNESS OF
CLOUDS MAY DETERMINE HOW LOW TEMPS DROP SINCE DEW POINTS REMAIN LOW
WITH LIGHT WINDS. TRENDED TOWARD SLIGHTLY WARMER GFS/ECMWF RAW TEMPS
WITH LOWS NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING.

MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN THE INTENSITY OF LOW PRESSURE AFFECTING THE
MID-ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND AND TAKE THE HIGHEST QPF OVER THE
CAROLINAS. IN THE LAST 3 DAYS GUIDANCE HAS TAKEN THE SYSTEM FROM A
POTENT CLOSED LOW OFF NORFOLK AT 06Z SUNDAY TO AN OPEN WAVE WITH
THE MAJORITY OF ITS ENERGY WELL TO OUR SOUTH. CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN
THE CURRENT SOLUTION THAT THE MAJORITY OF PRECIP WITH THE
SYSTEM...OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...SHOULD BE RAIN...AND QPF
WILL BE FAIRLY LOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE THE TEMPS ARE
LOWEST. ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE FOCUSED ALONG AND WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...THOUGH THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA TO SEE AT LEAST A COUPLE SNOW FLAKES. PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT OF
THE AREA BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY.

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS MONDAY
WILL KEEP WEATHER ACTIVE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WORKWEEK. BROAD
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
COULD HELP LIFT A STALLED COASTAL FRONT ACROSS THE AREA AS A WARM
FRONT SOMETIME MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. HAVE INCLUDED LOW END CHANCE
POPS IN THIS TIME FRAME TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MAY THEN FORM WITHIN THE COLD FRONT OF THE LARGER PARENT LOW AND
MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING HIGH END
CHANCE POPS INTO THE FORECAST. EARLY IMPRESSIONS ARE THAT P-TYPE
WILL BE LARGELY ELEVATION DEPENDENT WILL LOWER ELEVATIONS MOSTLY
SEEING RAIN. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE TIMING AND DETAILS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/POST WARM FRONT...WHEN
TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDS XPCTD THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. NW GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT ON
OCCASION TONIGHT AND MORE FREQUENTLY THURSDAY. FLOW WEAKENS A BIT
BUT REMAINS NWLY WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NWLY 18 TO 20 KT SURGE CURRENTLY CROSSING THE WATERS LATE THIS
EVENING...WITH GUSTS RETURNING TO SRN MD WATERS EXPECTED FOR THE
FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL HOURS. SCA FOR ALL THE WATERS INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY EVENING. NW WIND GUSTS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE MARGINAL FOR A SCA...BUT ONE MAY BE NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DEPENDING ON THE EFFICIENCY OF ATMOSPHERIC
MIXING. LIGHT WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OCCURRENCE OF ANY MARINE HAZARDS IN THE
LONG TERM.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
UPDATE...JACKSON
PREVIOUS...WOODY!/ADS/CEB





000
FXUS61 KLWX 180222
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
922 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT..EXCEPT FOR A WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT
WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH
OF THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A SECONDARY LOW IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LARGE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO DEVELOP IN THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 02Z...999MB SFC LOW OVER SRN NOVA SCOTIA AND 1031MB SFC HIGH
OVER FAR WRN ONTARIO. 4MB SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS ACROSS
THE CWA...ALLOWING OCCASIONAL 20 MPH NW GUSTS. MIXING PERSISTS
OVER NIGHT...SO MINS LIMITED IN SPITE OF RATHER CLEAR CONDITIONS
SOUTH OF THE FIRST TIER OF COUNTIES FROM THE MASON-DIXON LINE.
WILL RAISE MIN TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES FOR ALL BUT SHELTERED
VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SUNNY START TO THURSDAY WITH MID-LEVEL TROUGH ENTERING THE AREA
IN THE AFTERNOON. COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME SNOW FLAKES FOR THE
ALLEGHENIES...BUT JUST HIGHER CLOUDS ELSEWHERE. DOWNSLOPING WLY FLOW
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH...BUT COLDER AIR MASS IN PLACE...ONLY
MID 40S FOR MAX TEMPS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TOWARD NEWFOUNDLAND
THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A
DAMPENING SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH IN THE FAST SOUTHERN STREAM.
DESPITE A FEW MODELS TRYING TO PRODUCE QPF IN UPSLOPE AREAS...THINK
THE MOISTURE PROFILES ONLY SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
GOOD GUIDANCE AGREEMENT WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 20S
IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 30S METROS/EAST.

DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS IN FULLY. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL WINDS TAKE ON A BIT MORE
OF A NW DIRECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH...LEADING TO WEAK CAA.
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S. HIGH/MID CLOUDS INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. SPEED/THICKNESS OF
CLOUDS MAY DETERMINE HOW LOW TEMPS DROP SINCE DEW POINTS REMAIN LOW
WITH LIGHT WINDS. TRENDED TOWARD SLIGHTLY WARMER GFS/ECMWF RAW TEMPS
WITH LOWS NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING.

MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN THE INTENSITY OF LOW PRESSURE AFFECTING THE
MID-ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND AND TAKE THE HIGHEST QPF OVER THE
CAROLINAS. IN THE LAST 3 DAYS GUIDANCE HAS TAKEN THE SYSTEM FROM A
POTENT CLOSED LOW OFF NORFOLK AT 06Z SUNDAY TO AN OPEN WAVE WITH
THE MAJORITY OF ITS ENERGY WELL TO OUR SOUTH. CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN
THE CURRENT SOLUTION THAT THE MAJORITY OF PRECIP WITH THE
SYSTEM...OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...SHOULD BE RAIN...AND QPF
WILL BE FAIRLY LOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE THE TEMPS ARE
LOWEST. ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE FOCUSED ALONG AND WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...THOUGH THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA TO SEE AT LEAST A COUPLE SNOW FLAKES. PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT OF
THE AREA BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY.

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS MONDAY
WILL KEEP WEATHER ACTIVE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WORKWEEK. BROAD
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
COULD HELP LIFT A STALLED COASTAL FRONT ACROSS THE AREA AS A WARM
FRONT SOMETIME MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. HAVE INCLUDED LOW END CHANCE
POPS IN THIS TIME FRAME TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MAY THEN FORM WITHIN THE COLD FRONT OF THE LARGER PARENT LOW AND
MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING HIGH END
CHANCE POPS INTO THE FORECAST. EARLY IMPRESSIONS ARE THAT P-TYPE
WILL BE LARGELY ELEVATION DEPENDENT WILL LOWER ELEVATIONS MOSTLY
SEEING RAIN. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE TIMING AND DETAILS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/POST WARM FRONT...WHEN
TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDS XPCTD THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. NW GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT ON
OCCASION TONIGHT AND MORE FREQUENTLY THURSDAY. FLOW WEAKENS A BIT
BUT REMAINS NWLY WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NWLY 18 TO 20 KT SURGE CURRENTLY CROSSING THE WATERS LATE THIS
EVENING...WITH GUSTS RETURNING TO SRN MD WATERS EXPECTED FOR THE
FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL HOURS. SCA FOR ALL THE WATERS INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY EVENING. NW WIND GUSTS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE MARGINAL FOR A SCA...BUT ONE MAY BE NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DEPENDING ON THE EFFICIENCY OF ATMOSPHERIC
MIXING. LIGHT WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OCCURRENCE OF ANY MARINE HAZARDS IN THE
LONG TERM.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
UPDATE...JACKSON
PREVIOUS...WOODY!/ADS/CEB






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 172346
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
646 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. ONE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL TRACK FROM
THE GULF COAST STATES EAST NORTHEAST TO JUST OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
DRIER NW FLO WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TNGT INTO THU MORNG...AS
A PIECE OF HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE WNW. MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD WITH
LO TEMPS RANGING FM THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THU INTO EARLY FRI NGT...AS DRY/ZONAL
FLO DOMINATES THE REGION AND SFC HI PRES BLDS ACRS THE GRT LKS
INTO SE CANADA. SHRTWV ENERGY TRACKING FM W-E IN FAST FLO ALOFT
WILL PRODUCE A LITTLE MORE CLOUDINESS THU NGT INTO FRI MORNG.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY THU THRU FRI...WITH HI
TEMPS RANGING THRU THE 40S BOTH DAYS. LOWS THU NGT MAINLY IN THE
UPR 20S TO LWR 30S.

FRI NGT THRU SAT...LEANING CLOSER TO THE SLGTLY FASTER GFS...ESPLY
REGARDING ONSET/OVERSPREADING OF PCPN ACRS THE REGION. AT THIS
TIME...WENT CLOSER TO THE GFS THICKNESSES/MDL SOUNDINGS...ESPLY
DURING SAT MORNG WITH THE ONSET OF PCPN...WHERE A CHC OF SLEET
(MAYBE SOME SNOW) WAS ADDED GENERALLY N OF A SOUTH HILL TO
WILLIAMSBURG LINE. BY LATE MORNG OR EARLY AFTN...PCPN WILL BECOME
JUST RAIN EVERYWHERE...AS LAYERS WARM AND SFC TEMPS CLIMB INTO
THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHEST QPF AMTS WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD
END UP ACRS EXTRM SRN/SE VA AND NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NW SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL TO AROUND 30 NW TO THE
UPPER 30S SE. HOWEVER...ANY LIGHT RAIN SHOULD END PRIOR TO ANY
SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AOB 32F. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
PREVAIL SUNDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER LOW FORMS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
AND TRACKS NE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME TEMPERATURES
APPEAR WARM ENOUGH FOR ONLY RAIN. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF
MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT SUNDAY NIGHT. MID-LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH MILDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
BY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE 00Z TAF
PERIOD. WEST WINDS SHIFT TO N/NW DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS AS A
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY
APPEAR FROM TIME TO TIME.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN AND PSBL IFR CONDS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY BUT EASTERLY FLOW
COULD MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES BY TO THE N TONIGHT FOLLOWED
BY SHALLOW CAA ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF THE MARINE AREA. THE
CURRENT SCA FOR THE NRN OCEAN ZONES WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE NRN
TWO BAY ZONES. A 20-25KT NW WIND IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN OCEAN
ZONES...WHICH COULD BRIEFLY BUILD SEAS TO 4-5FT OUT NEAR 20NM.
GENERALLY EXPECTING LOW-END (15-20KT) SCA CONDITIONS IN THE NRN BAY
ZONES. SIMILAR CONDITIONS PERSIST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE WIND
GRADUALLY DECREASING. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ENE TO IMMEDIATELY OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW
TRACKS NE OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO
SPECULATE ON THE POTENTIAL OF SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ630-631-650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 172346
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
646 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. ONE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL TRACK FROM
THE GULF COAST STATES EAST NORTHEAST TO JUST OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
DRIER NW FLO WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TNGT INTO THU MORNG...AS
A PIECE OF HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE WNW. MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD WITH
LO TEMPS RANGING FM THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THU INTO EARLY FRI NGT...AS DRY/ZONAL
FLO DOMINATES THE REGION AND SFC HI PRES BLDS ACRS THE GRT LKS
INTO SE CANADA. SHRTWV ENERGY TRACKING FM W-E IN FAST FLO ALOFT
WILL PRODUCE A LITTLE MORE CLOUDINESS THU NGT INTO FRI MORNG.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY THU THRU FRI...WITH HI
TEMPS RANGING THRU THE 40S BOTH DAYS. LOWS THU NGT MAINLY IN THE
UPR 20S TO LWR 30S.

FRI NGT THRU SAT...LEANING CLOSER TO THE SLGTLY FASTER GFS...ESPLY
REGARDING ONSET/OVERSPREADING OF PCPN ACRS THE REGION. AT THIS
TIME...WENT CLOSER TO THE GFS THICKNESSES/MDL SOUNDINGS...ESPLY
DURING SAT MORNG WITH THE ONSET OF PCPN...WHERE A CHC OF SLEET
(MAYBE SOME SNOW) WAS ADDED GENERALLY N OF A SOUTH HILL TO
WILLIAMSBURG LINE. BY LATE MORNG OR EARLY AFTN...PCPN WILL BECOME
JUST RAIN EVERYWHERE...AS LAYERS WARM AND SFC TEMPS CLIMB INTO
THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHEST QPF AMTS WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD
END UP ACRS EXTRM SRN/SE VA AND NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NW SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL TO AROUND 30 NW TO THE
UPPER 30S SE. HOWEVER...ANY LIGHT RAIN SHOULD END PRIOR TO ANY
SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AOB 32F. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
PREVAIL SUNDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER LOW FORMS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
AND TRACKS NE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME TEMPERATURES
APPEAR WARM ENOUGH FOR ONLY RAIN. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF
MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT SUNDAY NIGHT. MID-LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH MILDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
BY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE 00Z TAF
PERIOD. WEST WINDS SHIFT TO N/NW DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS AS A
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY
APPEAR FROM TIME TO TIME.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN AND PSBL IFR CONDS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY BUT EASTERLY FLOW
COULD MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES BY TO THE N TONIGHT FOLLOWED
BY SHALLOW CAA ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF THE MARINE AREA. THE
CURRENT SCA FOR THE NRN OCEAN ZONES WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE NRN
TWO BAY ZONES. A 20-25KT NW WIND IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN OCEAN
ZONES...WHICH COULD BRIEFLY BUILD SEAS TO 4-5FT OUT NEAR 20NM.
GENERALLY EXPECTING LOW-END (15-20KT) SCA CONDITIONS IN THE NRN BAY
ZONES. SIMILAR CONDITIONS PERSIST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE WIND
GRADUALLY DECREASING. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ENE TO IMMEDIATELY OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW
TRACKS NE OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO
SPECULATE ON THE POTENTIAL OF SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ630-631-650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 172346
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
646 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. ONE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL TRACK FROM
THE GULF COAST STATES EAST NORTHEAST TO JUST OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
DRIER NW FLO WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TNGT INTO THU MORNG...AS
A PIECE OF HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE WNW. MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD WITH
LO TEMPS RANGING FM THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THU INTO EARLY FRI NGT...AS DRY/ZONAL
FLO DOMINATES THE REGION AND SFC HI PRES BLDS ACRS THE GRT LKS
INTO SE CANADA. SHRTWV ENERGY TRACKING FM W-E IN FAST FLO ALOFT
WILL PRODUCE A LITTLE MORE CLOUDINESS THU NGT INTO FRI MORNG.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY THU THRU FRI...WITH HI
TEMPS RANGING THRU THE 40S BOTH DAYS. LOWS THU NGT MAINLY IN THE
UPR 20S TO LWR 30S.

FRI NGT THRU SAT...LEANING CLOSER TO THE SLGTLY FASTER GFS...ESPLY
REGARDING ONSET/OVERSPREADING OF PCPN ACRS THE REGION. AT THIS
TIME...WENT CLOSER TO THE GFS THICKNESSES/MDL SOUNDINGS...ESPLY
DURING SAT MORNG WITH THE ONSET OF PCPN...WHERE A CHC OF SLEET
(MAYBE SOME SNOW) WAS ADDED GENERALLY N OF A SOUTH HILL TO
WILLIAMSBURG LINE. BY LATE MORNG OR EARLY AFTN...PCPN WILL BECOME
JUST RAIN EVERYWHERE...AS LAYERS WARM AND SFC TEMPS CLIMB INTO
THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHEST QPF AMTS WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD
END UP ACRS EXTRM SRN/SE VA AND NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NW SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL TO AROUND 30 NW TO THE
UPPER 30S SE. HOWEVER...ANY LIGHT RAIN SHOULD END PRIOR TO ANY
SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AOB 32F. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
PREVAIL SUNDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER LOW FORMS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
AND TRACKS NE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME TEMPERATURES
APPEAR WARM ENOUGH FOR ONLY RAIN. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF
MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT SUNDAY NIGHT. MID-LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH MILDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
BY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE 00Z TAF
PERIOD. WEST WINDS SHIFT TO N/NW DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS AS A
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY
APPEAR FROM TIME TO TIME.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN AND PSBL IFR CONDS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY BUT EASTERLY FLOW
COULD MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES BY TO THE N TONIGHT FOLLOWED
BY SHALLOW CAA ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF THE MARINE AREA. THE
CURRENT SCA FOR THE NRN OCEAN ZONES WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE NRN
TWO BAY ZONES. A 20-25KT NW WIND IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN OCEAN
ZONES...WHICH COULD BRIEFLY BUILD SEAS TO 4-5FT OUT NEAR 20NM.
GENERALLY EXPECTING LOW-END (15-20KT) SCA CONDITIONS IN THE NRN BAY
ZONES. SIMILAR CONDITIONS PERSIST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE WIND
GRADUALLY DECREASING. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ENE TO IMMEDIATELY OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW
TRACKS NE OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO
SPECULATE ON THE POTENTIAL OF SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ630-631-650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 172346
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
646 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. ONE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL TRACK FROM
THE GULF COAST STATES EAST NORTHEAST TO JUST OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
DRIER NW FLO WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TNGT INTO THU MORNG...AS
A PIECE OF HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE WNW. MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD WITH
LO TEMPS RANGING FM THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THU INTO EARLY FRI NGT...AS DRY/ZONAL
FLO DOMINATES THE REGION AND SFC HI PRES BLDS ACRS THE GRT LKS
INTO SE CANADA. SHRTWV ENERGY TRACKING FM W-E IN FAST FLO ALOFT
WILL PRODUCE A LITTLE MORE CLOUDINESS THU NGT INTO FRI MORNG.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY THU THRU FRI...WITH HI
TEMPS RANGING THRU THE 40S BOTH DAYS. LOWS THU NGT MAINLY IN THE
UPR 20S TO LWR 30S.

FRI NGT THRU SAT...LEANING CLOSER TO THE SLGTLY FASTER GFS...ESPLY
REGARDING ONSET/OVERSPREADING OF PCPN ACRS THE REGION. AT THIS
TIME...WENT CLOSER TO THE GFS THICKNESSES/MDL SOUNDINGS...ESPLY
DURING SAT MORNG WITH THE ONSET OF PCPN...WHERE A CHC OF SLEET
(MAYBE SOME SNOW) WAS ADDED GENERALLY N OF A SOUTH HILL TO
WILLIAMSBURG LINE. BY LATE MORNG OR EARLY AFTN...PCPN WILL BECOME
JUST RAIN EVERYWHERE...AS LAYERS WARM AND SFC TEMPS CLIMB INTO
THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHEST QPF AMTS WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD
END UP ACRS EXTRM SRN/SE VA AND NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NW SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL TO AROUND 30 NW TO THE
UPPER 30S SE. HOWEVER...ANY LIGHT RAIN SHOULD END PRIOR TO ANY
SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AOB 32F. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
PREVAIL SUNDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER LOW FORMS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
AND TRACKS NE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME TEMPERATURES
APPEAR WARM ENOUGH FOR ONLY RAIN. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF
MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT SUNDAY NIGHT. MID-LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH MILDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
BY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE 00Z TAF
PERIOD. WEST WINDS SHIFT TO N/NW DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS AS A
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY
APPEAR FROM TIME TO TIME.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN AND PSBL IFR CONDS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY BUT EASTERLY FLOW
COULD MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES BY TO THE N TONIGHT FOLLOWED
BY SHALLOW CAA ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF THE MARINE AREA. THE
CURRENT SCA FOR THE NRN OCEAN ZONES WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE NRN
TWO BAY ZONES. A 20-25KT NW WIND IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN OCEAN
ZONES...WHICH COULD BRIEFLY BUILD SEAS TO 4-5FT OUT NEAR 20NM.
GENERALLY EXPECTING LOW-END (15-20KT) SCA CONDITIONS IN THE NRN BAY
ZONES. SIMILAR CONDITIONS PERSIST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE WIND
GRADUALLY DECREASING. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ENE TO IMMEDIATELY OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW
TRACKS NE OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO
SPECULATE ON THE POTENTIAL OF SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ630-631-650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ







000
FXUS61 KRNK 172340
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
640 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN OVERALL DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.
PERIODS OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL SKIRT THE FORECAST
AREA PER MOISTURE FESTERING OVER TEXAS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP OVER TEXAS BY FRIDAY...MOVING NORTHEAST
AND PROVIDING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

AREA OF ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
NEW ENGLAND WITH A RELATIVELY FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. CONFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO WAS RESULTING IN FAST
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...MIXING TO THE SURFACE IN THE FORM OF GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS. THE WESTERLY FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE WAS
RESULTING IN A LARGE AREA OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...THIS MOISTURE BUTTING UP AGAINST THE WESTERN SLOPES OF
THE WV MTNS...OUR EXTREME NW CWA. ELSEWHERE...THE WESTERLY FLOW
WAS RESULTING IN DOWNSLOPE DRYING...WITH LITTLE OR NO CLOUD COVER
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. SOME UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS WAS
BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA FROM THE SOUTHWEST COURTESY
OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER TX/OK.

FOR TONIGHT...LOOKING AT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO START
WITH...TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALLING AFTER SUNSET. READINGS MOST
AREAS WILL PROBABLY DIP INTO THE 20S UNLESS THE UPPER LEVEL
CIRRUS THICKENS AND NEGATES THE RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS IN THE OH VALLEY MAY ALSO SNEAK BACK INTO THE GREENBRIER
AND NEW RIVER VALLEYS...SOME OF THE MODELS HINTING AT THIS
POSSIBILITY. IF THIS OCCURS...THEN LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR RIME
ICE WOULD BECOME POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ATTM...HELD
OFF ON BRINGING IT BACK INTO THE NEW RIVER VALLEY...BUT DID ADD
SOME LOWER CLOUD TO THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA FROM BLUEFIELD TO
LEWISBURG.

BY THURSDAY...AREA OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE
OVER TX/OK WILL GET CAUGHT UP IN THE FAST WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...QUICKLY ZIPPING ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND REACHING OUR
FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE CONFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT HOWEVER...WILL SQUASH ANY CHANCE FOR ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIP...ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES OR
FLURRIES...A TRACE EVENT. WITH MORE CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
GET NEARLY AS WARM AS THEY DID WEDNESDAY...TOPPING OUT IN THE 40S
AS OPPOSED TO THE 50S...A CHANGE OF 10 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE QUICKLY OFF EAST COAST.
MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER WILL CLEAR FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL FILL
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MAV GUIDANCE USED FOR MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES THIS TIME FRAME.

WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A COMPACT BUT WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. MODELS TRACK THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THEN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. SPEED AND TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM ON THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE STILL REASONABLE. THIS BRING THE
BEST POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN ON PREVIOUS RUNS. BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND IS
MAINLY ON SATURDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND. ON SATURDAY THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRANSITION
FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS
WILL BRING WINDS AROUND TO THE EAST THEN NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION ON
SATURDAY WILL HELP ENHANCE AND MAINTAIN AN IN-SITU WEDGE. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH DENDRITIC GROWTH THROUGH
21Z/4PM SATURDAY THEN MAINLY RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN AFTER THAT. ONLY
SITE THAT WAS CLEARLY COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW FOR FROM THE ONSET
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WAS NEAR HOT SPRINGS. NAM WAS WARMER WITH
THE WARM LAYER ALOFT. LEANING TOWARD COOLER GFS FOR THE EXPECTED
TEMPERATURE PROFILE. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL HAVE A NON-DIURNAL PROFILE.&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN BASED UPON THE VARIOUS MODELS. HOWEVER...THESE SAME
MODELS OFFER ENOUGH DIFFERENCES TO MAKE THE DETAILS OF THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER ENOUGH OF CHALLENGE THAT CONFIDENCE IN THE SPECIFICS IS NOT
HIGH.

ON SUNDAY...THE CENTER OF SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT SYSTEM WILL TO OUR
EAST ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT WILL BE ALONG THE EAST COAST FROM
NORTH CAROLINA TO FLORIDA. WHAT REMAINS AS A QUESTION MARK IS
WHETHER OR NOT ANOTHER WAVE ALONG THIS SAME BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
PROGRESS FROM GEORGIA NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST AND DRAW MOISTURE
BACK INTO AT LEAST THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THEN...BY
MONDAY...THIS SAME LOW MAY OR MAY NOT STRENGTHEN AND DEEPEN AS
ANOTHER CLOSED COASTAL LOW OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA.
DEPENDING UPON HOW MUCH OR LITTLE THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS WILL CORRELATE
TO HOW LONG ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION REMAINS OVER OUR REGION.
THE PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE AREA IS ALSO A QUESTION. EACH
MODEL HAS A DIFFERENT TAKE ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WARM NOSE OVER
OUR REGION. THE ONLY CONSISTENT ELEMENT IS THE EXISTENCE OF A WARM
NOSE. GIVEN THIS...WILL OFFER RAIN VERSUS FREEZING RAIN FORECAST
DURING THE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THOUGH WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE...MAINLY
RANGING IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OF BRINGING A
CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
FROM THAT POINT...A DEEP LONGITUDINAL TROUGH DEVELOPS SOUTH TO THE
GULF OF MEXICO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASING MOISTURE
FETCH. BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND
ECWMF CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH AND
NEGATIVELY TILT THE FEATURE SO THAT THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO OFF
THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS...COINCIDENT TO THE POSITION OF THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT....WITH THE TRIPLE POINT PASSING
SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION. THIS PAINTS A PICTURE OF
VERY ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH PLENTY OF SHOWERS...VERY GUSTY...IF NOT DAMAGING...
WINDS...AND IF THE TRIPLE POINT PROGNOSTIC IS ACCURATE...SEVERE
WEATHER...OR AT LEAST A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER...OVER OR VERY
CLOSE TO OUR REGION OF THE COUNTRY. HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO STILL IS
DAY 6 INTO DAY 7 OF THE FORECAST...AND THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME FOR
CHANGES IN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS TO TREND TOWARD A LESS AGGRESSIVE
SYSTEM. GIVEN THIS...WILL OFFER A FORECAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY THAT OFFERS INCREASING CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN
     WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ON TUESDAY...WITH MODERATE RAIN
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.
TIMING OF THE PUSH OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION AS WELL AS THE
MAGNITUDE OF THAT COLDER AIR VARIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECWMF.
HOWEVER...THE FORECAST WILL ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR COLD ENOUGH
AIR TO REACH WESTERN...HIGHER PARTS OF THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL TREND MILDER
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY MAY BE A BIT MILDER IN THE
EAST...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE WEST AS COMPARED TO TUESDAY. ALL
DAYS OF THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN BASED UPON THE VARIOUS MODELS. HOWEVER...THESE SAME
MODELS OFFER ENOUGH DIFFERENCES TO MAKE THE DETAILS OF THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER ENOUGH OF CHALLENGE THAT CONFIDENCE IN THE SPECIFICS IS NOT
HIGH.

ON SUNDAY...THE CENTER OF SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT SYSTEM WILL TO OUR
EAST ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT WILL BE ALONG THE EAST COAST FROM
NORTH CAROLINA TO FLORIDA. WHAT REMAINS AS A QUESTION MARK IS
WHETHER OR NOT ANOTHER WAVE ALONG THIS SAME BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
PROGRESS FROM GEORGIA NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST AND DRAW MOISTURE
BACK INTO AT LEAST THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THEN...BY
MONDAY...THIS SAME LOW MAY OR MAY NOT STRENGTHEN AND DEEPEN AS
ANOTHER CLOSED COASTAL LOW OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA.
DEPENDING UPON HOW MUCH OR LITTLE THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS WILL CORRELATE
TO HOW LONG ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION REMAINS OVER OUR REGION.
THE PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE AREA IS ALSO A QUESTION. EACH
MODEL HAS A DIFFERENT TAKE ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WARM NOSE OVER
OUR REGION. THE ONLY CONSISTENT ELEMENT IS THE EXISTENCE OF A WARM
NOSE. GIVEN THIS...WILL OFFER RAIN VERSUS FREEZING RAIN FORECAST
DURING THE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THOUGH WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE...MAINLY
RANGING IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OF BRINGING A
CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
FROM THAT POINT...A DEEP LONGITUDINAL TROUGH DEVELOPS SOUTH TO THE
GULF OF MEXICO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASING MOISTURE
FETCH. BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND
ECWMF CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH AND
NEGATIVELY TILT THE FEATURE SO THAT THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO OFF
THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS...COINCIDENT TO THE POSITION OF THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT....WITH THE TRIPLE POINT PASSING
SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION. THIS PAINTS A PICTURE OF
VERY ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH PLENTY OF SHOWERS...VERY GUSTY...IF NOT DAMAGING...
WINDS...AND IF THE TRIPLE POINT PROGNOSTIC IS ACCURATE...SEVERE
WEATHER...OR AT LEAST A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER...OVER OR VERY
CLOSE TO OUR REGION OF THE COUNTRY. HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO STILL IS
DAY 6 INTO DAY 7 OF THE FORECAST...AND THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME FOR
CHANGES IN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS TO TREND TOWARD A LESS AGGRESSIVE
SYSTEM. GIVEN THIS...WILL OFFER A FORECAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY THAT OFFERS INCREASING CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN
     WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ON TUESDAY...WITH MODERATE RAIN
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.
TIMING OF THE PUSH OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION AS WELL AS THE
MAGNITUDE OF THAT COLDER AIR VARIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECWMF.
HOWEVER...THE FORECAST WILL ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR COLD ENOUGH
AIR TO REACH WESTERN...HIGHER PARTS OF THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL TREND MILDER
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY MAY BE A BIT MILDER IN THE
EAST...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE WEST AS COMPARED TO TUESDAY. ALL
DAYS OF THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 610 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

MOST OF THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE THOSE AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND
WEST OF A KBLF-KLWB LINE. CURRENTLY...THAT AREA IS VFR...BUT WE
EXPECT IFR/MVFR CIGS TO RETURN DURING THE OVERNIGHT. THESE LOW
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER WITH RESULTING VFR ALTOCU AND
CIRRUS FROM THE LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY.

AS OF 130 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY LOOK RELATIVELY BENIGN.

THE FRI NIGHT-SAT SYSTEM NOW HAS TRENDED WEAKER BUT WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED AS IT WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF SUB VFR
WINTRY WEATHER ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST SAT.

AVIATION INTERESTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION AS LATER
FORECASTS BECOME AVAILABLE. THIS WILL LIKELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON AIR
TRAVEL OVER THE WEEKEND...FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
CAROLINAS NORTH TO THE MID ATLANTIC.

ON THE HEELS OF THIS FRIDAY/SATURDAY SYSTEM WILL BE ANOTHER SYSTEM
TO POTENTIALLY IMPACT MAINLY THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE REGION
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
HEAD NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH SCATTERED PRECIPITATION ON
ITS WESTERN FLANKS ENTERING THE REGION. AT THIS POINT A WINTRY MIX
IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...DS/PM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 172340
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
640 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN OVERALL DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.
PERIODS OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL SKIRT THE FORECAST
AREA PER MOISTURE FESTERING OVER TEXAS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP OVER TEXAS BY FRIDAY...MOVING NORTHEAST
AND PROVIDING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

AREA OF ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
NEW ENGLAND WITH A RELATIVELY FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. CONFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO WAS RESULTING IN FAST
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...MIXING TO THE SURFACE IN THE FORM OF GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS. THE WESTERLY FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE WAS
RESULTING IN A LARGE AREA OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...THIS MOISTURE BUTTING UP AGAINST THE WESTERN SLOPES OF
THE WV MTNS...OUR EXTREME NW CWA. ELSEWHERE...THE WESTERLY FLOW
WAS RESULTING IN DOWNSLOPE DRYING...WITH LITTLE OR NO CLOUD COVER
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. SOME UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS WAS
BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA FROM THE SOUTHWEST COURTESY
OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER TX/OK.

FOR TONIGHT...LOOKING AT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO START
WITH...TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALLING AFTER SUNSET. READINGS MOST
AREAS WILL PROBABLY DIP INTO THE 20S UNLESS THE UPPER LEVEL
CIRRUS THICKENS AND NEGATES THE RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS IN THE OH VALLEY MAY ALSO SNEAK BACK INTO THE GREENBRIER
AND NEW RIVER VALLEYS...SOME OF THE MODELS HINTING AT THIS
POSSIBILITY. IF THIS OCCURS...THEN LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR RIME
ICE WOULD BECOME POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ATTM...HELD
OFF ON BRINGING IT BACK INTO THE NEW RIVER VALLEY...BUT DID ADD
SOME LOWER CLOUD TO THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA FROM BLUEFIELD TO
LEWISBURG.

BY THURSDAY...AREA OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE
OVER TX/OK WILL GET CAUGHT UP IN THE FAST WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...QUICKLY ZIPPING ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND REACHING OUR
FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE CONFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT HOWEVER...WILL SQUASH ANY CHANCE FOR ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIP...ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES OR
FLURRIES...A TRACE EVENT. WITH MORE CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
GET NEARLY AS WARM AS THEY DID WEDNESDAY...TOPPING OUT IN THE 40S
AS OPPOSED TO THE 50S...A CHANGE OF 10 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE QUICKLY OFF EAST COAST.
MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER WILL CLEAR FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL FILL
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MAV GUIDANCE USED FOR MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES THIS TIME FRAME.

WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A COMPACT BUT WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. MODELS TRACK THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THEN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. SPEED AND TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM ON THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE STILL REASONABLE. THIS BRING THE
BEST POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN ON PREVIOUS RUNS. BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND IS
MAINLY ON SATURDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND. ON SATURDAY THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRANSITION
FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS
WILL BRING WINDS AROUND TO THE EAST THEN NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION ON
SATURDAY WILL HELP ENHANCE AND MAINTAIN AN IN-SITU WEDGE. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH DENDRITIC GROWTH THROUGH
21Z/4PM SATURDAY THEN MAINLY RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN AFTER THAT. ONLY
SITE THAT WAS CLEARLY COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW FOR FROM THE ONSET
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WAS NEAR HOT SPRINGS. NAM WAS WARMER WITH
THE WARM LAYER ALOFT. LEANING TOWARD COOLER GFS FOR THE EXPECTED
TEMPERATURE PROFILE. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL HAVE A NON-DIURNAL PROFILE.&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN BASED UPON THE VARIOUS MODELS. HOWEVER...THESE SAME
MODELS OFFER ENOUGH DIFFERENCES TO MAKE THE DETAILS OF THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER ENOUGH OF CHALLENGE THAT CONFIDENCE IN THE SPECIFICS IS NOT
HIGH.

ON SUNDAY...THE CENTER OF SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT SYSTEM WILL TO OUR
EAST ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT WILL BE ALONG THE EAST COAST FROM
NORTH CAROLINA TO FLORIDA. WHAT REMAINS AS A QUESTION MARK IS
WHETHER OR NOT ANOTHER WAVE ALONG THIS SAME BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
PROGRESS FROM GEORGIA NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST AND DRAW MOISTURE
BACK INTO AT LEAST THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THEN...BY
MONDAY...THIS SAME LOW MAY OR MAY NOT STRENGTHEN AND DEEPEN AS
ANOTHER CLOSED COASTAL LOW OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA.
DEPENDING UPON HOW MUCH OR LITTLE THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS WILL CORRELATE
TO HOW LONG ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION REMAINS OVER OUR REGION.
THE PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE AREA IS ALSO A QUESTION. EACH
MODEL HAS A DIFFERENT TAKE ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WARM NOSE OVER
OUR REGION. THE ONLY CONSISTENT ELEMENT IS THE EXISTENCE OF A WARM
NOSE. GIVEN THIS...WILL OFFER RAIN VERSUS FREEZING RAIN FORECAST
DURING THE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THOUGH WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE...MAINLY
RANGING IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OF BRINGING A
CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
FROM THAT POINT...A DEEP LONGITUDINAL TROUGH DEVELOPS SOUTH TO THE
GULF OF MEXICO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASING MOISTURE
FETCH. BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND
ECWMF CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH AND
NEGATIVELY TILT THE FEATURE SO THAT THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO OFF
THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS...COINCIDENT TO THE POSITION OF THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT....WITH THE TRIPLE POINT PASSING
SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION. THIS PAINTS A PICTURE OF
VERY ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH PLENTY OF SHOWERS...VERY GUSTY...IF NOT DAMAGING...
WINDS...AND IF THE TRIPLE POINT PROGNOSTIC IS ACCURATE...SEVERE
WEATHER...OR AT LEAST A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER...OVER OR VERY
CLOSE TO OUR REGION OF THE COUNTRY. HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO STILL IS
DAY 6 INTO DAY 7 OF THE FORECAST...AND THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME FOR
CHANGES IN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS TO TREND TOWARD A LESS AGGRESSIVE
SYSTEM. GIVEN THIS...WILL OFFER A FORECAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY THAT OFFERS INCREASING CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN
     WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ON TUESDAY...WITH MODERATE RAIN
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.
TIMING OF THE PUSH OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION AS WELL AS THE
MAGNITUDE OF THAT COLDER AIR VARIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECWMF.
HOWEVER...THE FORECAST WILL ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR COLD ENOUGH
AIR TO REACH WESTERN...HIGHER PARTS OF THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL TREND MILDER
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY MAY BE A BIT MILDER IN THE
EAST...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE WEST AS COMPARED TO TUESDAY. ALL
DAYS OF THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN BASED UPON THE VARIOUS MODELS. HOWEVER...THESE SAME
MODELS OFFER ENOUGH DIFFERENCES TO MAKE THE DETAILS OF THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER ENOUGH OF CHALLENGE THAT CONFIDENCE IN THE SPECIFICS IS NOT
HIGH.

ON SUNDAY...THE CENTER OF SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT SYSTEM WILL TO OUR
EAST ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT WILL BE ALONG THE EAST COAST FROM
NORTH CAROLINA TO FLORIDA. WHAT REMAINS AS A QUESTION MARK IS
WHETHER OR NOT ANOTHER WAVE ALONG THIS SAME BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
PROGRESS FROM GEORGIA NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST AND DRAW MOISTURE
BACK INTO AT LEAST THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THEN...BY
MONDAY...THIS SAME LOW MAY OR MAY NOT STRENGTHEN AND DEEPEN AS
ANOTHER CLOSED COASTAL LOW OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA.
DEPENDING UPON HOW MUCH OR LITTLE THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS WILL CORRELATE
TO HOW LONG ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION REMAINS OVER OUR REGION.
THE PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE AREA IS ALSO A QUESTION. EACH
MODEL HAS A DIFFERENT TAKE ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WARM NOSE OVER
OUR REGION. THE ONLY CONSISTENT ELEMENT IS THE EXISTENCE OF A WARM
NOSE. GIVEN THIS...WILL OFFER RAIN VERSUS FREEZING RAIN FORECAST
DURING THE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THOUGH WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE...MAINLY
RANGING IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OF BRINGING A
CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
FROM THAT POINT...A DEEP LONGITUDINAL TROUGH DEVELOPS SOUTH TO THE
GULF OF MEXICO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASING MOISTURE
FETCH. BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND
ECWMF CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH AND
NEGATIVELY TILT THE FEATURE SO THAT THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO OFF
THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS...COINCIDENT TO THE POSITION OF THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT....WITH THE TRIPLE POINT PASSING
SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION. THIS PAINTS A PICTURE OF
VERY ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH PLENTY OF SHOWERS...VERY GUSTY...IF NOT DAMAGING...
WINDS...AND IF THE TRIPLE POINT PROGNOSTIC IS ACCURATE...SEVERE
WEATHER...OR AT LEAST A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER...OVER OR VERY
CLOSE TO OUR REGION OF THE COUNTRY. HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO STILL IS
DAY 6 INTO DAY 7 OF THE FORECAST...AND THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME FOR
CHANGES IN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS TO TREND TOWARD A LESS AGGRESSIVE
SYSTEM. GIVEN THIS...WILL OFFER A FORECAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY THAT OFFERS INCREASING CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN
     WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ON TUESDAY...WITH MODERATE RAIN
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.
TIMING OF THE PUSH OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION AS WELL AS THE
MAGNITUDE OF THAT COLDER AIR VARIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECWMF.
HOWEVER...THE FORECAST WILL ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR COLD ENOUGH
AIR TO REACH WESTERN...HIGHER PARTS OF THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL TREND MILDER
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY MAY BE A BIT MILDER IN THE
EAST...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE WEST AS COMPARED TO TUESDAY. ALL
DAYS OF THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 610 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

MOST OF THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE THOSE AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND
WEST OF A KBLF-KLWB LINE. CURRENTLY...THAT AREA IS VFR...BUT WE
EXPECT IFR/MVFR CIGS TO RETURN DURING THE OVERNIGHT. THESE LOW
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER WITH RESULTING VFR ALTOCU AND
CIRRUS FROM THE LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY.

AS OF 130 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY LOOK RELATIVELY BENIGN.

THE FRI NIGHT-SAT SYSTEM NOW HAS TRENDED WEAKER BUT WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED AS IT WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF SUB VFR
WINTRY WEATHER ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST SAT.

AVIATION INTERESTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION AS LATER
FORECASTS BECOME AVAILABLE. THIS WILL LIKELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON AIR
TRAVEL OVER THE WEEKEND...FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
CAROLINAS NORTH TO THE MID ATLANTIC.

ON THE HEELS OF THIS FRIDAY/SATURDAY SYSTEM WILL BE ANOTHER SYSTEM
TO POTENTIALLY IMPACT MAINLY THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE REGION
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
HEAD NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH SCATTERED PRECIPITATION ON
ITS WESTERN FLANKS ENTERING THE REGION. AT THIS POINT A WINTRY MIX
IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...DS/PM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 172340
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
640 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN OVERALL DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.
PERIODS OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL SKIRT THE FORECAST
AREA PER MOISTURE FESTERING OVER TEXAS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP OVER TEXAS BY FRIDAY...MOVING NORTHEAST
AND PROVIDING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

AREA OF ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
NEW ENGLAND WITH A RELATIVELY FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. CONFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO WAS RESULTING IN FAST
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...MIXING TO THE SURFACE IN THE FORM OF GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS. THE WESTERLY FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE WAS
RESULTING IN A LARGE AREA OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...THIS MOISTURE BUTTING UP AGAINST THE WESTERN SLOPES OF
THE WV MTNS...OUR EXTREME NW CWA. ELSEWHERE...THE WESTERLY FLOW
WAS RESULTING IN DOWNSLOPE DRYING...WITH LITTLE OR NO CLOUD COVER
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. SOME UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS WAS
BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA FROM THE SOUTHWEST COURTESY
OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER TX/OK.

FOR TONIGHT...LOOKING AT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO START
WITH...TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALLING AFTER SUNSET. READINGS MOST
AREAS WILL PROBABLY DIP INTO THE 20S UNLESS THE UPPER LEVEL
CIRRUS THICKENS AND NEGATES THE RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS IN THE OH VALLEY MAY ALSO SNEAK BACK INTO THE GREENBRIER
AND NEW RIVER VALLEYS...SOME OF THE MODELS HINTING AT THIS
POSSIBILITY. IF THIS OCCURS...THEN LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR RIME
ICE WOULD BECOME POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ATTM...HELD
OFF ON BRINGING IT BACK INTO THE NEW RIVER VALLEY...BUT DID ADD
SOME LOWER CLOUD TO THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA FROM BLUEFIELD TO
LEWISBURG.

BY THURSDAY...AREA OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE
OVER TX/OK WILL GET CAUGHT UP IN THE FAST WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...QUICKLY ZIPPING ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND REACHING OUR
FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE CONFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT HOWEVER...WILL SQUASH ANY CHANCE FOR ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIP...ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES OR
FLURRIES...A TRACE EVENT. WITH MORE CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
GET NEARLY AS WARM AS THEY DID WEDNESDAY...TOPPING OUT IN THE 40S
AS OPPOSED TO THE 50S...A CHANGE OF 10 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE QUICKLY OFF EAST COAST.
MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER WILL CLEAR FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL FILL
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MAV GUIDANCE USED FOR MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES THIS TIME FRAME.

WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A COMPACT BUT WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. MODELS TRACK THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THEN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. SPEED AND TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM ON THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE STILL REASONABLE. THIS BRING THE
BEST POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN ON PREVIOUS RUNS. BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND IS
MAINLY ON SATURDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND. ON SATURDAY THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRANSITION
FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS
WILL BRING WINDS AROUND TO THE EAST THEN NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION ON
SATURDAY WILL HELP ENHANCE AND MAINTAIN AN IN-SITU WEDGE. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH DENDRITIC GROWTH THROUGH
21Z/4PM SATURDAY THEN MAINLY RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN AFTER THAT. ONLY
SITE THAT WAS CLEARLY COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW FOR FROM THE ONSET
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WAS NEAR HOT SPRINGS. NAM WAS WARMER WITH
THE WARM LAYER ALOFT. LEANING TOWARD COOLER GFS FOR THE EXPECTED
TEMPERATURE PROFILE. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL HAVE A NON-DIURNAL PROFILE.&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN BASED UPON THE VARIOUS MODELS. HOWEVER...THESE SAME
MODELS OFFER ENOUGH DIFFERENCES TO MAKE THE DETAILS OF THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER ENOUGH OF CHALLENGE THAT CONFIDENCE IN THE SPECIFICS IS NOT
HIGH.

ON SUNDAY...THE CENTER OF SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT SYSTEM WILL TO OUR
EAST ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT WILL BE ALONG THE EAST COAST FROM
NORTH CAROLINA TO FLORIDA. WHAT REMAINS AS A QUESTION MARK IS
WHETHER OR NOT ANOTHER WAVE ALONG THIS SAME BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
PROGRESS FROM GEORGIA NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST AND DRAW MOISTURE
BACK INTO AT LEAST THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THEN...BY
MONDAY...THIS SAME LOW MAY OR MAY NOT STRENGTHEN AND DEEPEN AS
ANOTHER CLOSED COASTAL LOW OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA.
DEPENDING UPON HOW MUCH OR LITTLE THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS WILL CORRELATE
TO HOW LONG ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION REMAINS OVER OUR REGION.
THE PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE AREA IS ALSO A QUESTION. EACH
MODEL HAS A DIFFERENT TAKE ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WARM NOSE OVER
OUR REGION. THE ONLY CONSISTENT ELEMENT IS THE EXISTENCE OF A WARM
NOSE. GIVEN THIS...WILL OFFER RAIN VERSUS FREEZING RAIN FORECAST
DURING THE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THOUGH WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE...MAINLY
RANGING IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OF BRINGING A
CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
FROM THAT POINT...A DEEP LONGITUDINAL TROUGH DEVELOPS SOUTH TO THE
GULF OF MEXICO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASING MOISTURE
FETCH. BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND
ECWMF CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH AND
NEGATIVELY TILT THE FEATURE SO THAT THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO OFF
THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS...COINCIDENT TO THE POSITION OF THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT....WITH THE TRIPLE POINT PASSING
SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION. THIS PAINTS A PICTURE OF
VERY ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH PLENTY OF SHOWERS...VERY GUSTY...IF NOT DAMAGING...
WINDS...AND IF THE TRIPLE POINT PROGNOSTIC IS ACCURATE...SEVERE
WEATHER...OR AT LEAST A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER...OVER OR VERY
CLOSE TO OUR REGION OF THE COUNTRY. HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO STILL IS
DAY 6 INTO DAY 7 OF THE FORECAST...AND THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME FOR
CHANGES IN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS TO TREND TOWARD A LESS AGGRESSIVE
SYSTEM. GIVEN THIS...WILL OFFER A FORECAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY THAT OFFERS INCREASING CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN
     WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ON TUESDAY...WITH MODERATE RAIN
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.
TIMING OF THE PUSH OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION AS WELL AS THE
MAGNITUDE OF THAT COLDER AIR VARIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECWMF.
HOWEVER...THE FORECAST WILL ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR COLD ENOUGH
AIR TO REACH WESTERN...HIGHER PARTS OF THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL TREND MILDER
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY MAY BE A BIT MILDER IN THE
EAST...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE WEST AS COMPARED TO TUESDAY. ALL
DAYS OF THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN BASED UPON THE VARIOUS MODELS. HOWEVER...THESE SAME
MODELS OFFER ENOUGH DIFFERENCES TO MAKE THE DETAILS OF THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER ENOUGH OF CHALLENGE THAT CONFIDENCE IN THE SPECIFICS IS NOT
HIGH.

ON SUNDAY...THE CENTER OF SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT SYSTEM WILL TO OUR
EAST ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT WILL BE ALONG THE EAST COAST FROM
NORTH CAROLINA TO FLORIDA. WHAT REMAINS AS A QUESTION MARK IS
WHETHER OR NOT ANOTHER WAVE ALONG THIS SAME BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
PROGRESS FROM GEORGIA NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST AND DRAW MOISTURE
BACK INTO AT LEAST THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THEN...BY
MONDAY...THIS SAME LOW MAY OR MAY NOT STRENGTHEN AND DEEPEN AS
ANOTHER CLOSED COASTAL LOW OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA.
DEPENDING UPON HOW MUCH OR LITTLE THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS WILL CORRELATE
TO HOW LONG ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION REMAINS OVER OUR REGION.
THE PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE AREA IS ALSO A QUESTION. EACH
MODEL HAS A DIFFERENT TAKE ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WARM NOSE OVER
OUR REGION. THE ONLY CONSISTENT ELEMENT IS THE EXISTENCE OF A WARM
NOSE. GIVEN THIS...WILL OFFER RAIN VERSUS FREEZING RAIN FORECAST
DURING THE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THOUGH WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE...MAINLY
RANGING IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OF BRINGING A
CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
FROM THAT POINT...A DEEP LONGITUDINAL TROUGH DEVELOPS SOUTH TO THE
GULF OF MEXICO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASING MOISTURE
FETCH. BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND
ECWMF CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH AND
NEGATIVELY TILT THE FEATURE SO THAT THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO OFF
THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS...COINCIDENT TO THE POSITION OF THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT....WITH THE TRIPLE POINT PASSING
SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION. THIS PAINTS A PICTURE OF
VERY ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH PLENTY OF SHOWERS...VERY GUSTY...IF NOT DAMAGING...
WINDS...AND IF THE TRIPLE POINT PROGNOSTIC IS ACCURATE...SEVERE
WEATHER...OR AT LEAST A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER...OVER OR VERY
CLOSE TO OUR REGION OF THE COUNTRY. HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO STILL IS
DAY 6 INTO DAY 7 OF THE FORECAST...AND THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME FOR
CHANGES IN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS TO TREND TOWARD A LESS AGGRESSIVE
SYSTEM. GIVEN THIS...WILL OFFER A FORECAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY THAT OFFERS INCREASING CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN
     WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ON TUESDAY...WITH MODERATE RAIN
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.
TIMING OF THE PUSH OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION AS WELL AS THE
MAGNITUDE OF THAT COLDER AIR VARIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECWMF.
HOWEVER...THE FORECAST WILL ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR COLD ENOUGH
AIR TO REACH WESTERN...HIGHER PARTS OF THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL TREND MILDER
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY MAY BE A BIT MILDER IN THE
EAST...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE WEST AS COMPARED TO TUESDAY. ALL
DAYS OF THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 610 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

MOST OF THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE THOSE AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND
WEST OF A KBLF-KLWB LINE. CURRENTLY...THAT AREA IS VFR...BUT WE
EXPECT IFR/MVFR CIGS TO RETURN DURING THE OVERNIGHT. THESE LOW
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER WITH RESULTING VFR ALTOCU AND
CIRRUS FROM THE LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY.

AS OF 130 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY LOOK RELATIVELY BENIGN.

THE FRI NIGHT-SAT SYSTEM NOW HAS TRENDED WEAKER BUT WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED AS IT WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF SUB VFR
WINTRY WEATHER ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST SAT.

AVIATION INTERESTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION AS LATER
FORECASTS BECOME AVAILABLE. THIS WILL LIKELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON AIR
TRAVEL OVER THE WEEKEND...FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
CAROLINAS NORTH TO THE MID ATLANTIC.

ON THE HEELS OF THIS FRIDAY/SATURDAY SYSTEM WILL BE ANOTHER SYSTEM
TO POTENTIALLY IMPACT MAINLY THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE REGION
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
HEAD NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH SCATTERED PRECIPITATION ON
ITS WESTERN FLANKS ENTERING THE REGION. AT THIS POINT A WINTRY MIX
IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...DS/PM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 172340
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
640 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN OVERALL DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.
PERIODS OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL SKIRT THE FORECAST
AREA PER MOISTURE FESTERING OVER TEXAS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP OVER TEXAS BY FRIDAY...MOVING NORTHEAST
AND PROVIDING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

AREA OF ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
NEW ENGLAND WITH A RELATIVELY FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. CONFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO WAS RESULTING IN FAST
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...MIXING TO THE SURFACE IN THE FORM OF GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS. THE WESTERLY FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE WAS
RESULTING IN A LARGE AREA OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...THIS MOISTURE BUTTING UP AGAINST THE WESTERN SLOPES OF
THE WV MTNS...OUR EXTREME NW CWA. ELSEWHERE...THE WESTERLY FLOW
WAS RESULTING IN DOWNSLOPE DRYING...WITH LITTLE OR NO CLOUD COVER
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. SOME UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS WAS
BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA FROM THE SOUTHWEST COURTESY
OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER TX/OK.

FOR TONIGHT...LOOKING AT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO START
WITH...TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALLING AFTER SUNSET. READINGS MOST
AREAS WILL PROBABLY DIP INTO THE 20S UNLESS THE UPPER LEVEL
CIRRUS THICKENS AND NEGATES THE RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS IN THE OH VALLEY MAY ALSO SNEAK BACK INTO THE GREENBRIER
AND NEW RIVER VALLEYS...SOME OF THE MODELS HINTING AT THIS
POSSIBILITY. IF THIS OCCURS...THEN LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR RIME
ICE WOULD BECOME POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ATTM...HELD
OFF ON BRINGING IT BACK INTO THE NEW RIVER VALLEY...BUT DID ADD
SOME LOWER CLOUD TO THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA FROM BLUEFIELD TO
LEWISBURG.

BY THURSDAY...AREA OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE
OVER TX/OK WILL GET CAUGHT UP IN THE FAST WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...QUICKLY ZIPPING ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND REACHING OUR
FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE CONFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT HOWEVER...WILL SQUASH ANY CHANCE FOR ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIP...ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES OR
FLURRIES...A TRACE EVENT. WITH MORE CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
GET NEARLY AS WARM AS THEY DID WEDNESDAY...TOPPING OUT IN THE 40S
AS OPPOSED TO THE 50S...A CHANGE OF 10 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE QUICKLY OFF EAST COAST.
MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER WILL CLEAR FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL FILL
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MAV GUIDANCE USED FOR MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES THIS TIME FRAME.

WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A COMPACT BUT WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. MODELS TRACK THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THEN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. SPEED AND TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM ON THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE STILL REASONABLE. THIS BRING THE
BEST POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN ON PREVIOUS RUNS. BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND IS
MAINLY ON SATURDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND. ON SATURDAY THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRANSITION
FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS
WILL BRING WINDS AROUND TO THE EAST THEN NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION ON
SATURDAY WILL HELP ENHANCE AND MAINTAIN AN IN-SITU WEDGE. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH DENDRITIC GROWTH THROUGH
21Z/4PM SATURDAY THEN MAINLY RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN AFTER THAT. ONLY
SITE THAT WAS CLEARLY COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW FOR FROM THE ONSET
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WAS NEAR HOT SPRINGS. NAM WAS WARMER WITH
THE WARM LAYER ALOFT. LEANING TOWARD COOLER GFS FOR THE EXPECTED
TEMPERATURE PROFILE. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL HAVE A NON-DIURNAL PROFILE.&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN BASED UPON THE VARIOUS MODELS. HOWEVER...THESE SAME
MODELS OFFER ENOUGH DIFFERENCES TO MAKE THE DETAILS OF THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER ENOUGH OF CHALLENGE THAT CONFIDENCE IN THE SPECIFICS IS NOT
HIGH.

ON SUNDAY...THE CENTER OF SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT SYSTEM WILL TO OUR
EAST ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT WILL BE ALONG THE EAST COAST FROM
NORTH CAROLINA TO FLORIDA. WHAT REMAINS AS A QUESTION MARK IS
WHETHER OR NOT ANOTHER WAVE ALONG THIS SAME BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
PROGRESS FROM GEORGIA NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST AND DRAW MOISTURE
BACK INTO AT LEAST THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THEN...BY
MONDAY...THIS SAME LOW MAY OR MAY NOT STRENGTHEN AND DEEPEN AS
ANOTHER CLOSED COASTAL LOW OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA.
DEPENDING UPON HOW MUCH OR LITTLE THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS WILL CORRELATE
TO HOW LONG ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION REMAINS OVER OUR REGION.
THE PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE AREA IS ALSO A QUESTION. EACH
MODEL HAS A DIFFERENT TAKE ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WARM NOSE OVER
OUR REGION. THE ONLY CONSISTENT ELEMENT IS THE EXISTENCE OF A WARM
NOSE. GIVEN THIS...WILL OFFER RAIN VERSUS FREEZING RAIN FORECAST
DURING THE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THOUGH WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE...MAINLY
RANGING IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OF BRINGING A
CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
FROM THAT POINT...A DEEP LONGITUDINAL TROUGH DEVELOPS SOUTH TO THE
GULF OF MEXICO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASING MOISTURE
FETCH. BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND
ECWMF CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH AND
NEGATIVELY TILT THE FEATURE SO THAT THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO OFF
THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS...COINCIDENT TO THE POSITION OF THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT....WITH THE TRIPLE POINT PASSING
SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION. THIS PAINTS A PICTURE OF
VERY ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH PLENTY OF SHOWERS...VERY GUSTY...IF NOT DAMAGING...
WINDS...AND IF THE TRIPLE POINT PROGNOSTIC IS ACCURATE...SEVERE
WEATHER...OR AT LEAST A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER...OVER OR VERY
CLOSE TO OUR REGION OF THE COUNTRY. HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO STILL IS
DAY 6 INTO DAY 7 OF THE FORECAST...AND THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME FOR
CHANGES IN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS TO TREND TOWARD A LESS AGGRESSIVE
SYSTEM. GIVEN THIS...WILL OFFER A FORECAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY THAT OFFERS INCREASING CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN
     WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ON TUESDAY...WITH MODERATE RAIN
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.
TIMING OF THE PUSH OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION AS WELL AS THE
MAGNITUDE OF THAT COLDER AIR VARIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECWMF.
HOWEVER...THE FORECAST WILL ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR COLD ENOUGH
AIR TO REACH WESTERN...HIGHER PARTS OF THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL TREND MILDER
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY MAY BE A BIT MILDER IN THE
EAST...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE WEST AS COMPARED TO TUESDAY. ALL
DAYS OF THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN BASED UPON THE VARIOUS MODELS. HOWEVER...THESE SAME
MODELS OFFER ENOUGH DIFFERENCES TO MAKE THE DETAILS OF THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER ENOUGH OF CHALLENGE THAT CONFIDENCE IN THE SPECIFICS IS NOT
HIGH.

ON SUNDAY...THE CENTER OF SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT SYSTEM WILL TO OUR
EAST ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT WILL BE ALONG THE EAST COAST FROM
NORTH CAROLINA TO FLORIDA. WHAT REMAINS AS A QUESTION MARK IS
WHETHER OR NOT ANOTHER WAVE ALONG THIS SAME BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
PROGRESS FROM GEORGIA NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST AND DRAW MOISTURE
BACK INTO AT LEAST THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THEN...BY
MONDAY...THIS SAME LOW MAY OR MAY NOT STRENGTHEN AND DEEPEN AS
ANOTHER CLOSED COASTAL LOW OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA.
DEPENDING UPON HOW MUCH OR LITTLE THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS WILL CORRELATE
TO HOW LONG ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION REMAINS OVER OUR REGION.
THE PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE AREA IS ALSO A QUESTION. EACH
MODEL HAS A DIFFERENT TAKE ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WARM NOSE OVER
OUR REGION. THE ONLY CONSISTENT ELEMENT IS THE EXISTENCE OF A WARM
NOSE. GIVEN THIS...WILL OFFER RAIN VERSUS FREEZING RAIN FORECAST
DURING THE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THOUGH WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE...MAINLY
RANGING IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OF BRINGING A
CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
FROM THAT POINT...A DEEP LONGITUDINAL TROUGH DEVELOPS SOUTH TO THE
GULF OF MEXICO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASING MOISTURE
FETCH. BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND
ECWMF CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH AND
NEGATIVELY TILT THE FEATURE SO THAT THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO OFF
THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS...COINCIDENT TO THE POSITION OF THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT....WITH THE TRIPLE POINT PASSING
SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION. THIS PAINTS A PICTURE OF
VERY ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH PLENTY OF SHOWERS...VERY GUSTY...IF NOT DAMAGING...
WINDS...AND IF THE TRIPLE POINT PROGNOSTIC IS ACCURATE...SEVERE
WEATHER...OR AT LEAST A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER...OVER OR VERY
CLOSE TO OUR REGION OF THE COUNTRY. HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO STILL IS
DAY 6 INTO DAY 7 OF THE FORECAST...AND THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME FOR
CHANGES IN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS TO TREND TOWARD A LESS AGGRESSIVE
SYSTEM. GIVEN THIS...WILL OFFER A FORECAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY THAT OFFERS INCREASING CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN
     WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ON TUESDAY...WITH MODERATE RAIN
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.
TIMING OF THE PUSH OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION AS WELL AS THE
MAGNITUDE OF THAT COLDER AIR VARIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECWMF.
HOWEVER...THE FORECAST WILL ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR COLD ENOUGH
AIR TO REACH WESTERN...HIGHER PARTS OF THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL TREND MILDER
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY MAY BE A BIT MILDER IN THE
EAST...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE WEST AS COMPARED TO TUESDAY. ALL
DAYS OF THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 610 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

MOST OF THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE THOSE AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND
WEST OF A KBLF-KLWB LINE. CURRENTLY...THAT AREA IS VFR...BUT WE
EXPECT IFR/MVFR CIGS TO RETURN DURING THE OVERNIGHT. THESE LOW
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER WITH RESULTING VFR ALTOCU AND
CIRRUS FROM THE LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY.

AS OF 130 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY LOOK RELATIVELY BENIGN.

THE FRI NIGHT-SAT SYSTEM NOW HAS TRENDED WEAKER BUT WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED AS IT WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF SUB VFR
WINTRY WEATHER ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST SAT.

AVIATION INTERESTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION AS LATER
FORECASTS BECOME AVAILABLE. THIS WILL LIKELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON AIR
TRAVEL OVER THE WEEKEND...FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
CAROLINAS NORTH TO THE MID ATLANTIC.

ON THE HEELS OF THIS FRIDAY/SATURDAY SYSTEM WILL BE ANOTHER SYSTEM
TO POTENTIALLY IMPACT MAINLY THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE REGION
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
HEAD NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH SCATTERED PRECIPITATION ON
ITS WESTERN FLANKS ENTERING THE REGION. AT THIS POINT A WINTRY MIX
IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...DS/PM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 172312
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
612 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN OVERALL DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.
PERIODS OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL SKIRT THE FORECAST
AREA PER MOISTURE FESTERING OVER TEXAS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP OVER TEXAS BY FRIDAY...MOVING NORTHEAST
AND PROVIDING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

AREA OF ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
NEW ENGLAND WITH A RELATIVELY FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. CONFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO WAS RESULTING IN FAST
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...MIXING TO THE SURFACE IN THE FORM OF GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS. THE WESTERLY FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE WAS
RESULTING IN A LARGE AREA OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...THIS MOISTURE BUTTING UP AGAINST THE WESTERN SLOPES OF
THE WV MTNS...OUR EXTREME NW CWA. ELSEWHERE...THE WESTERLY FLOW
WAS RESULTING IN DOWNSLOPE DRYING...WITH LITTLE OR NO CLOUD COVER
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. SOME UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS WAS
BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA FROM THE SOUTHWEST COURTESY
OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER TX/OK.

FOR TONIGHT...LOOKING AT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO START
WITH...TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALLING AFTER SUNSET. READINGS MOST
AREAS WILL PROBABLY DIP INTO THE 20S UNLESS THE UPPER LEVEL
CIRRUS THICKENS AND NEGATES THE RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS IN THE OH VALLEY MAY ALSO SNEAK BACK INTO THE GREENBRIER
AND NEW RIVER VALLEYS...SOME OF THE MODELS HINTING AT THIS
POSSIBILITY. IF THIS OCCURS...THEN LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR RIME
ICE WOULD BECOME POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ATTM...HELD
OFF ON BRINGING IT BACK INTO THE NEW RIVER VALLEY...BUT DID ADD
SOME LOWER CLOUD TO THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA FROM BLUEFIELD TO
LEWISBURG.

BY THURSDAY...AREA OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE
OVER TX/OK WILL GET CAUGHT UP IN THE FAST WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...QUICKLY ZIPPING ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND REACHING OUR
FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE CONFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT HOWEVER...WILL SQUASH ANY CHANCE FOR ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIP...ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES OR
FLURRIES...A TRACE EVENT. WITH MORE CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
GET NEARLY AS WARM AS THEY DID WEDNESDAY...TOPPING OUT IN THE 40S
AS OPPOSED TO THE 50S...A CHANGE OF 10 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE QUICKLY OFF EAST COAST.
MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER WILL CLEAR FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL FILL
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MAV GUIDANCE USED FOR MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES THIS TIME FRAME.

WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A COMPACT BUT WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. MODELS TRACK THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THEN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. SPEED AND TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM ON THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE STILL REASONABLE. THIS BRING THE
BEST POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN ON PREVIOUS RUNS. BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND IS
MAINLY ON SATURDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND. ON SATURDAY THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRANSITION
FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS
WILL BRING WINDS AROUND TO THE EAST THEN NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION ON
SATURDAY WILL HELP ENHANCE AND MAINTAIN AN IN-SITU WEDGE. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH DENDRITIC GROWTH THROUGH
21Z/4PM SATURDAY THEN MAINLY RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN AFTER THAT. ONLY
SITE THAT WAS CLEARLY COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW FOR FROM THE ONSET
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WAS NEAR HOT SPRINGS. NAM WAS WARMER WITH
THE WARM LAYER ALOFT. LEANING TOWARD COOLER GFS FOR THE EXPECTED
TEMPERATURE PROFILE. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL HAVE A NON-DIURNAL PROFILE.&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN BASED UPON THE VARIOUS MODELS. HOWEVER...THESE SAME
MODELS OFFER ENOUGH DIFFERENCES TO MAKE THE DETAILS OF THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER ENOUGH OF CHALLENGE THAT CONFIDENCE IN THE SPECIFICS IS NOT
HIGH.

ON SUNDAY...THE CENTER OF SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT SYSTEM WILL TO OUR
EAST ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT WILL BE ALONG THE EAST COAST FROM
NORTH CAROLINA TO FLORIDA. WHAT REMAINS AS A QUESTION MARK IS
WHETHER OR NOT ANOTHER WAVE ALONG THIS SAME BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
PROGRESS FROM GEORGIA NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST AND DRAW MOISTURE
BACK INTO AT LEAST THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THEN...BY
MONDAY...THIS SAME LOW MAY OR MAY NOT STRENGTHEN AND DEEPEN AS
ANOTHER CLOSED COASTAL LOW OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA.
DEPENDING UPON HOW MUCH OR LITTLE THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS WILL CORRELATE
TO HOW LONG ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION REMAINS OVER OUR REGION.
THE PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE AREA IS ALSO A QUESTION. EACH
MODEL HAS A DIFFERENT TAKE ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WARM NOSE OVER
OUR REGION. THE ONLY CONSISTENT ELEMENT IS THE EXISTENCE OF A WARM
NOSE. GIVEN THIS...WILL OFFER RAIN VERSUS FREEZING RAIN FORECAST
DURING THE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THOUGH WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE...MAINLY
RANGING IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OF BRINGING A
CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
FROM THAT POINT...A DEEP LONGITUDINAL TROUGH DEVELOPS SOUTH TO THE
GULF OF MEXICO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASING MOISTURE
FETCH. BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND
ECWMF CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH AND
NEGATIVELY TILT THE FEATURE SO THAT THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO OFF
THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS...COINCIDENT TO THE POSITION OF THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT....WITH THE TRIPLE POINT PASSING
SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION. THIS PAINTS A PICTURE OF
VERY ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH PLENTY OF SHOWERS...VERY GUSTY...IF NOT DAMAGING...
WINDS...AND IF THE TRIPLE POINT PROGNOSTIC IS ACCURATE...SEVERE
WEATHER...OR AT LEAST A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER...OVER OR VERY
CLOSE TO OUR REGION OF THE COUNTRY. HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO STILL IS
DAY 6 INTO DAY 7 OF THE FORECAST...AND THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME FOR
CHANGES IN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS TO TREND TOWARD A LESS AGGRESSIVE
SYSTEM. GIVEN THIS...WILL OFFER A FORECAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY THAT OFFERS INCREASING CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN
     WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ON TUESDAY...WITH MODERATE RAIN
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.
TIMING OF THE PUSH OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION AS WELL AS THE
MAGNITUDE OF THAT COLDER AIR VARIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECWMF.
HOWEVER...THE FORECAST WILL ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR COLD ENOUGH
AIR TO REACH WESTERN...HIGHER PARTS OF THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL TREND MILDER
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY MAY BE A BIT MILDER IN THE
EAST...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE WEST AS COMPARED TO TUESDAY. ALL
DAYS OF THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN BASED UPON THE VARIOUS MODELS. HOWEVER...THESE SAME
MODELS OFFER ENOUGH DIFFERENCES TO MAKE THE DETAILS OF THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER ENOUGH OF CHALLENGE THAT CONFIDENCE IN THE SPECIFICS IS NOT
HIGH.

ON SUNDAY...THE CENTER OF SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT SYSTEM WILL TO OUR
EAST ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT WILL BE ALONG THE EAST COAST FROM
NORTH CAROLINA TO FLORIDA. WHAT REMAINS AS A QUESTION MARK IS
WHETHER OR NOT ANOTHER WAVE ALONG THIS SAME BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
PROGRESS FROM GEORGIA NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST AND DRAW MOISTURE
BACK INTO AT LEAST THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THEN...BY
MONDAY...THIS SAME LOW MAY OR MAY NOT STRENGTHEN AND DEEPEN AS
ANOTHER CLOSED COASTAL LOW OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA.
DEPENDING UPON HOW MUCH OR LITTLE THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS WILL CORRELATE
TO HOW LONG ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION REMAINS OVER OUR REGION.
THE PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE AREA IS ALSO A QUESTION. EACH
MODEL HAS A DIFFERENT TAKE ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WARM NOSE OVER
OUR REGION. THE ONLY CONSISTENT ELEMENT IS THE EXISTENCE OF A WARM
NOSE. GIVEN THIS...WILL OFFER RAIN VERSUS FREEZING RAIN FORECAST
DURING THE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THOUGH WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE...MAINLY
RANGING IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OF BRINGING A
CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
FROM THAT POINT...A DEEP LONGITUDINAL TROUGH DEVELOPS SOUTH TO THE
GULF OF MEXICO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASING MOISTURE
FETCH. BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND
ECWMF CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH AND
NEGATIVELY TILT THE FEATURE SO THAT THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO OFF
THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS...COINCIDENT TO THE POSITION OF THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT....WITH THE TRIPLE POINT PASSING
SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION. THIS PAINTS A PICTURE OF
VERY ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH PLENTY OF SHOWERS...VERY GUSTY...IF NOT DAMAGING...
WINDS...AND IF THE TRIPLE POINT PROGNOSTIC IS ACCURATE...SEVERE
WEATHER...OR AT LEAST A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER...OVER OR VERY
CLOSE TO OUR REGION OF THE COUNTRY. HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO STILL IS
DAY 6 INTO DAY 7 OF THE FORECAST...AND THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME FOR
CHANGES IN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS TO TREND TOWARD A LESS AGGRESSIVE
SYSTEM. GIVEN THIS...WILL OFFER A FORECAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY THAT OFFERS INCREASING CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN
...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ON TUESDAY...WITH MODERATE RAIN
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.
TIMING OF THE PUSH OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION AS WELL AS THE
MAGNITUDE OF THAT COLDER AIR VARIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECWMF.
HOWEVER...THE FORECAST WILL ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR COLD ENOUGH
AIR TO REACH WESTERN...HIGHER PARTS OF THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL TREND MILDER
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY MAY BE A BIT MILDER IN THE
EAST...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE WEST AS COMPARED TO TUESDAY. ALL
DAYS OF THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 610 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

MOST OF THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE THOSE AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND
WEST OF A KBLF-KLWB LINE. CURRENTLY...THAT AREA IS VFR...BUT WE
EXPECT IFR/MVFR CIGS TO RETURN DURING THE OVERNIGHT. THESE LOW
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER WITH RESULTING VFR ALTOCU AND
CIRRUS FROM THE LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY.

AS OF 130 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY LOOK RELATIVELY BENIGN.

THE FRI NIGHT-SAT SYSTEM NOW HAS TRENDED WEAKER BUT WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED AS IT WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF SUB VFR
WINTRY WEATHER ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST SAT.

AVIATION INTERESTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION AS LATER
FORECASTS BECOME AVAILABLE. THIS WILL LIKELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON AIR
TRAVEL OVER THE WEEKEND...FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
CAROLINAS NORTH TO THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...DS/PM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 172136
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
436 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. ONE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL TRACK FROM
THE GULF COAST STATES EAST NORTHEAST TO JUST OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
DRIER NW FLO WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TNGT INTO THU MORNG...AS
A PIECE OF HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE WNW. MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD WITH
LO TEMPS RANGING FM THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THU INTO EARLY FRI NGT...AS DRY/ZONAL
FLO DOMINATES THE REGION AND SFC HI PRES BLDS ACRS THE GRT LKS
INTO SE CANADA. SHRTWV ENERGY TRACKING FM W-E IN FAST FLO ALOFT
WILL PRODUCE A LITTLE MORE CLOUDINESS THU NGT INTO FRI MORNG.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY THU THRU FRI...WITH HI
TEMPS RANGING THRU THE 40S BOTH DAYS. LOWS THU NGT MAINLY IN THE
UPR 20S TO LWR 30S.

FRI NGT THRU SAT...LEANING CLOSER TO THE SLGTLY FASTER GFS...ESPLY
REGARDING ONSET/OVERSPREADING OF PCPN ACRS THE REGION. AT THIS
TIME...WENT CLOSER TO THE GFS THICKNESSES/MDL SOUNDINGS...ESPLY
DURING SAT MORNG WITH THE ONSET OF PCPN...WHERE A CHC OF SLEET
(MAYBE SOME SNOW) WAS ADDED GENERALLY N OF A SOUTH HILL TO
WILLIAMSBURG LINE. BY LATE MORNG OR EARLY AFTN...PCPN WILL BECOME
JUST RAIN EVERYWHERE...AS LAYERS WARM AND SFC TEMPS CLIMB INTO
THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHEST QPF AMTS WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD
END UP ACRS EXTRM SRN/SE VA AND NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NW SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL TO AROUND 30 NW TO THE
UPPER 30S SE. HOWEVER...ANY LIGHT RAIN SHOULD END PRIOR TO ANY
SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AOB 32F. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
PREVAIL SUNDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER LOW FORMS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
AND TRACKS NE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME TEMPERATURES
APPEAR WARM ENOUGH FOR ONLY RAIN. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF
MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT SUNDAY NIGHT. MID-LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH MILDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
BY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT W TO NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
18Z TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
LATER SATURDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES BY TO THE N TONIGHT FOLLOWED
BY SHALLOW CAA ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF THE MARINE AREA. THE
CURRENT SCA FOR THE NRN OCEAN ZONES WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE NRN
TWO BAY ZONES. A 20-25KT NW WIND IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN OCEAN
ZONES...WHICH COULD BRIEFLY BUILD SEAS TO 4-5FT OUT NEAR 20NM.
GENERALLY EXPECTING LOW-END (15-20KT) SCA CONDITIONS IN THE NRN BAY
ZONES. SIMILAR CONDITIONS PERSIST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE WIND
GRADUALLY DECREASING. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ENE TO IMMEDIATELY OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW
TRACKS NE OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO
SPECULATE ON THE POTENTIAL OF SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ630-631-650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...AJZ




000
FXUS61 KRNK 172117
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
417 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN OVERALL DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.
PERIODS OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL SKIRT THE FORECAST
AREA PER MOISTURE FESTERING OVER TEXAS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP OVER TEXAS BY FRIDAY...MOVING NORTHEAST
AND PROVIDING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

AREA OF ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
NEW ENGLAND WITH A RELATIVELY FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. CONFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO WAS RESULTING IN FAST
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...MIXING TO THE SURFACE IN THE FORM OF GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS. THE WESTERLY FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE WAS
RESULTING IN A LARGE AREA OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...THIS MOISTURE BUTTING UP AGAINST THE WESTERN SLOPES OF
THE WV MTNS...OUR EXTREME NW CWA. ELSEWHERE...THE WESTERLY FLOW
WAS RESULTING IN DOWNSLOPE DRYING...WITH LITTLE OR NO CLOUD COVER
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. SOME UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS WAS
BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA FROM THE SOUTHWEST COURTESY
OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER TX/OK.

FOR TONIGHT...LOOKING AT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO START
WITH...TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALLING AFTER SUNSET. READINGS MOST
AREAS WILL PROBABLY DIP INTO THE 20S UNLESS THE UPPER LEVEL
CIRRUS THICKENS AND NEGATES THE RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS IN THE OH VALLEY MAY ALSO SNEAK BACK INTO THE GREENBRIER
AND NEW RIVER VALLEYS...SOME OF THE MODELS HINTING AT THIS
POSSIBILITY. IF THIS OCCURS...THEN LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR RIME
ICE WOULD BECOME POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ATTM...HELD
OFF ON BRINGING IT BACK INTO THE NEW RIVER VALLEY...BUT DID ADD
SOME LOWER CLOUD TO THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA FROM BLUEFIELD TO
LEWISBURG.

BY THURSDAY...AREA OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE
OVER TX/OK WILL GET CAUGHT UP IN THE FAST WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...QUICKLY ZIPPING ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND REACHING OUR
FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE CONFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT HOWEVER...WILL SQUASH ANY CHANCE FOR ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIP...ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES OR
FLURRIES...A TRACE EVENT. WITH MORE CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
GET NEARLY AS WARM AS THEY DID WEDNESDAY...TOPPING OUT IN THE 40S
AS OPPOSED TO THE 50S...A CHANGE OF 10 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE QUICKLY OFF EAST COAST.
MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER WILL CLEAR FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL FILL
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MAV GUIDANCE USED FOR MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES THIS TIME FRAME.

WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A COMPACT BUT WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. MODELS TRACK THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THEN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. SPEED AND TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM ON THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE STILL REASONABLE. THIS BRING THE
BEST POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN ON PREVIOUS RUNS. BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND IS
MAINLY ON SATURDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND. ON SATURDAY THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRANSITION
FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS
WILL BRING WINDS AROUND TO THE EAST THEN NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION ON
SATURDAY WILL HELP ENHANCE AND MAINTAIN AN IN-SITU WEDGE. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH DENDRITIC GROWTH THROUGH
21Z/4PM SATURDAY THEN MAINLY RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN AFTER THAT. ONLY
SITE THAT WAS CLEARLY COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW FOR FROM THE ONSET
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WAS NEAR HOT SPRINGS. NAM WAS WARMER WITH
THE WARM LAYER ALOFT. LEANING TOWARD COOLER GFS FOR THE EXPECTED
TEMPERATURE PROFILE. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL HAVE A NON-DIURNAL PROFILE.&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN BASED UPON THE VARIOUS MODELS. HOWEVER...THESE SAME
MODELS OFFER ENOUGH DIFFERENCES TO MAKE THE DETAILS OF THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER ENOUGH OF CHALLENGE THAT CONFIDENCE IN THE SPECIFICS IS NOT
HIGH.

ON SUNDAY...THE CENTER OF SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT SYSTEM WILL TO OUR
EAST ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT WILL BE ALONG THE EAST COAST FROM
NORTH CAROLINA TO FLORIDA. WHAT REMAINS AS A QUESTION MARK IS
WHETHER OR NOT ANOTHER WAVE ALONG THIS SAME BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
PROGRESS FROM GEORGIA NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST AND DRAW MOISTURE
BACK INTO AT LEAST THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THEN...BY
MONDAY...THIS SAME LOW MAY OR MAY NOT STRENGTHEN AND DEEPEN AS
ANOTHER CLOSED COASTAL LOW OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA.
DEPENDING UPON HOW MUCH OR LITTLE THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS WILL CORRELATE
TO HOW LONG ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION REMAINS OVER OUR REGION.
THE PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE AREA IS ALSO A QUESTION. EACH
MODEL HAS A DIFFERENT TAKE ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WARM NOSE OVER
OUR REGION. THE ONLY CONSISTENT ELEMENT IS THE EXISTENCE OF A WARM
NOSE. GIVEN THIS...WILL OFFER RAIN VERSUS FREEZING RAIN FORECAST
DURING THE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THOUGH WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE...MAINLY
RANGING IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OF BRINGING A
CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
FROM THAT POINT...A DEEP LONGITUDINAL TROUGH DEVELOPS SOUTH TO THE
GULF OF MEXICO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASING MOISTURE
FETCH. BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND
ECWMF CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH AND
NEGATIVELY TILT THE FEATURE SO THAT THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO OFF
THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS...COINCIDENT TO THE POSITION OF THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT....WITH THE TRIPLE POINT PASSING
SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION. THIS PAINTS A PICTURE OF
VERY ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH PLENTY OF SHOWERS...VERY GUSTY...IF NOT DAMAGING...
WINDS...AND IF THE TRIPLE POINT PROGNOSTIC IS ACCURATE...SEVERE
WEATHER...OR AT LEAST A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER...OVER OR VERY
CLOSE TO OUR REGION OF THE COUNTRY. HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO STILL IS
DAY 6 INTO DAY 7 OF THE FORECAST...AND THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME FOR
CHANGES IN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS TO TREND TOWARD A LESS AGGRESSIVE
SYSTEM. GIVEN THIS...WILL OFFER A FORECAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY THAT OFFERS INCREASING CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN
...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ON TUESDAY...WITH MODERATE RAIN
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.
TIMING OF THE PUSH OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION AS WELL AS THE
MAGNITUDE OF THAT COLDER AIR VARIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECWMF.
HOWEVER...THE FORECAST WILL ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR COLD ENOUGH
AIR TO REACH WESTERN...HIGHER PARTS OF THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL TREND MILDER
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY MAY BE A BIT MILDER IN THE
EAST...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE WEST AS COMPARED TO TUESDAY. ALL
DAYS OF THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SURFACE WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON...GUSTS DIMINISHING TOWARD SUNSET. LOW CLOUDS FROM THIS
MORNING HAVE DISSIPATED EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...BUT REMAIN ON THE
WEST SIDE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE.
KBLF/KLWB ARE NEAR THE TRANSITION BETWEEN THE LOW CLOUDS TO THE
WEST AND ESSENTIALLY NO LOW CLOUDINESS TO THE EAST. THIS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD...WITH MVFR
AND OCNL IFR CONDITIONS WEST OF KLWB/KBLF...AND VFR FOR
KROA/KLYH/KDAN.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK RELATIVELY BENIGN...THOUGH LOWER MVFR CIGS
WILL LINGER IN THE WEST THURSDAY.

THE FRI NIGHT-SAT SYSTEM NOW HAS TRENDED WEAKER BUT WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED AS IT WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF SUB VFR
WINTRY WEATHER ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST SAT.

AVIATION INTERESTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION AS LATER
FORECASTS BECOME AVAILABLE. THIS WILL LIKELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON AIR
TRAVEL OVER THE WEEKEND...FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
CAROLINAS NORTH TO THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...PM



000
FXUS61 KRNK 172117
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
417 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN OVERALL DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.
PERIODS OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL SKIRT THE FORECAST
AREA PER MOISTURE FESTERING OVER TEXAS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP OVER TEXAS BY FRIDAY...MOVING NORTHEAST
AND PROVIDING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

AREA OF ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
NEW ENGLAND WITH A RELATIVELY FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. CONFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO WAS RESULTING IN FAST
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...MIXING TO THE SURFACE IN THE FORM OF GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS. THE WESTERLY FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE WAS
RESULTING IN A LARGE AREA OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...THIS MOISTURE BUTTING UP AGAINST THE WESTERN SLOPES OF
THE WV MTNS...OUR EXTREME NW CWA. ELSEWHERE...THE WESTERLY FLOW
WAS RESULTING IN DOWNSLOPE DRYING...WITH LITTLE OR NO CLOUD COVER
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. SOME UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS WAS
BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA FROM THE SOUTHWEST COURTESY
OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER TX/OK.

FOR TONIGHT...LOOKING AT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO START
WITH...TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALLING AFTER SUNSET. READINGS MOST
AREAS WILL PROBABLY DIP INTO THE 20S UNLESS THE UPPER LEVEL
CIRRUS THICKENS AND NEGATES THE RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS IN THE OH VALLEY MAY ALSO SNEAK BACK INTO THE GREENBRIER
AND NEW RIVER VALLEYS...SOME OF THE MODELS HINTING AT THIS
POSSIBILITY. IF THIS OCCURS...THEN LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR RIME
ICE WOULD BECOME POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ATTM...HELD
OFF ON BRINGING IT BACK INTO THE NEW RIVER VALLEY...BUT DID ADD
SOME LOWER CLOUD TO THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA FROM BLUEFIELD TO
LEWISBURG.

BY THURSDAY...AREA OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE
OVER TX/OK WILL GET CAUGHT UP IN THE FAST WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...QUICKLY ZIPPING ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND REACHING OUR
FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE CONFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT HOWEVER...WILL SQUASH ANY CHANCE FOR ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIP...ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES OR
FLURRIES...A TRACE EVENT. WITH MORE CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
GET NEARLY AS WARM AS THEY DID WEDNESDAY...TOPPING OUT IN THE 40S
AS OPPOSED TO THE 50S...A CHANGE OF 10 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE QUICKLY OFF EAST COAST.
MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER WILL CLEAR FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL FILL
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MAV GUIDANCE USED FOR MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES THIS TIME FRAME.

WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A COMPACT BUT WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. MODELS TRACK THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THEN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. SPEED AND TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM ON THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE STILL REASONABLE. THIS BRING THE
BEST POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN ON PREVIOUS RUNS. BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND IS
MAINLY ON SATURDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND. ON SATURDAY THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRANSITION
FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS
WILL BRING WINDS AROUND TO THE EAST THEN NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION ON
SATURDAY WILL HELP ENHANCE AND MAINTAIN AN IN-SITU WEDGE. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH DENDRITIC GROWTH THROUGH
21Z/4PM SATURDAY THEN MAINLY RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN AFTER THAT. ONLY
SITE THAT WAS CLEARLY COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW FOR FROM THE ONSET
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WAS NEAR HOT SPRINGS. NAM WAS WARMER WITH
THE WARM LAYER ALOFT. LEANING TOWARD COOLER GFS FOR THE EXPECTED
TEMPERATURE PROFILE. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL HAVE A NON-DIURNAL PROFILE.&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN BASED UPON THE VARIOUS MODELS. HOWEVER...THESE SAME
MODELS OFFER ENOUGH DIFFERENCES TO MAKE THE DETAILS OF THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER ENOUGH OF CHALLENGE THAT CONFIDENCE IN THE SPECIFICS IS NOT
HIGH.

ON SUNDAY...THE CENTER OF SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT SYSTEM WILL TO OUR
EAST ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT WILL BE ALONG THE EAST COAST FROM
NORTH CAROLINA TO FLORIDA. WHAT REMAINS AS A QUESTION MARK IS
WHETHER OR NOT ANOTHER WAVE ALONG THIS SAME BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
PROGRESS FROM GEORGIA NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST AND DRAW MOISTURE
BACK INTO AT LEAST THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THEN...BY
MONDAY...THIS SAME LOW MAY OR MAY NOT STRENGTHEN AND DEEPEN AS
ANOTHER CLOSED COASTAL LOW OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA.
DEPENDING UPON HOW MUCH OR LITTLE THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS WILL CORRELATE
TO HOW LONG ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION REMAINS OVER OUR REGION.
THE PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE AREA IS ALSO A QUESTION. EACH
MODEL HAS A DIFFERENT TAKE ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WARM NOSE OVER
OUR REGION. THE ONLY CONSISTENT ELEMENT IS THE EXISTENCE OF A WARM
NOSE. GIVEN THIS...WILL OFFER RAIN VERSUS FREEZING RAIN FORECAST
DURING THE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THOUGH WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE...MAINLY
RANGING IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OF BRINGING A
CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
FROM THAT POINT...A DEEP LONGITUDINAL TROUGH DEVELOPS SOUTH TO THE
GULF OF MEXICO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASING MOISTURE
FETCH. BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND
ECWMF CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH AND
NEGATIVELY TILT THE FEATURE SO THAT THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO OFF
THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS...COINCIDENT TO THE POSITION OF THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT....WITH THE TRIPLE POINT PASSING
SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION. THIS PAINTS A PICTURE OF
VERY ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH PLENTY OF SHOWERS...VERY GUSTY...IF NOT DAMAGING...
WINDS...AND IF THE TRIPLE POINT PROGNOSTIC IS ACCURATE...SEVERE
WEATHER...OR AT LEAST A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER...OVER OR VERY
CLOSE TO OUR REGION OF THE COUNTRY. HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO STILL IS
DAY 6 INTO DAY 7 OF THE FORECAST...AND THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME FOR
CHANGES IN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS TO TREND TOWARD A LESS AGGRESSIVE
SYSTEM. GIVEN THIS...WILL OFFER A FORECAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY THAT OFFERS INCREASING CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN
...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ON TUESDAY...WITH MODERATE RAIN
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.
TIMING OF THE PUSH OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION AS WELL AS THE
MAGNITUDE OF THAT COLDER AIR VARIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECWMF.
HOWEVER...THE FORECAST WILL ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR COLD ENOUGH
AIR TO REACH WESTERN...HIGHER PARTS OF THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL TREND MILDER
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY MAY BE A BIT MILDER IN THE
EAST...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE WEST AS COMPARED TO TUESDAY. ALL
DAYS OF THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SURFACE WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON...GUSTS DIMINISHING TOWARD SUNSET. LOW CLOUDS FROM THIS
MORNING HAVE DISSIPATED EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...BUT REMAIN ON THE
WEST SIDE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE.
KBLF/KLWB ARE NEAR THE TRANSITION BETWEEN THE LOW CLOUDS TO THE
WEST AND ESSENTIALLY NO LOW CLOUDINESS TO THE EAST. THIS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD...WITH MVFR
AND OCNL IFR CONDITIONS WEST OF KLWB/KBLF...AND VFR FOR
KROA/KLYH/KDAN.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK RELATIVELY BENIGN...THOUGH LOWER MVFR CIGS
WILL LINGER IN THE WEST THURSDAY.

THE FRI NIGHT-SAT SYSTEM NOW HAS TRENDED WEAKER BUT WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED AS IT WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF SUB VFR
WINTRY WEATHER ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST SAT.

AVIATION INTERESTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION AS LATER
FORECASTS BECOME AVAILABLE. THIS WILL LIKELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON AIR
TRAVEL OVER THE WEEKEND...FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
CAROLINAS NORTH TO THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...PM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 172110
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
410 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. ONE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL TRACK FROM
THE GULF COAST STATES EAST NORTHEAST TO JUST OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
DRIER NW FLO WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TNGT INTO THU MORNG...AS
A PIECE OF HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE WNW. MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD WITH
LO TEMPS RANGING FM THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THU INTO EARLY FRI NGT...AS DRY/ZONAL
FLO DOMINATES THE REGION AND SFC HI PRES BLDS ACRS THE GRT LKS
INTO SE CANADA. SHRTWV ENERGY TRACKING FM W-E IN FAST FLO ALOFT
WILL PRODUCE A LITTLE MORE CLOUDINESS THU NGT INTO FRI MORNG.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY THU THRU FRI...WITH HI
TEMPS RANGING THRU THE 40S BOTH DAYS. LOWS THU NGT MAINLY IN THE
UPR 20S TO LWR 30S.

FRI NGT THRU SAT...LEANING CLOSER TO THE SLGTLY FASTER GFS...ESPLY
REGARDING ONSET/OVERSPREADING OF PCPN ACRS THE REGION. AT THIS
TIME...WENT CLOSER TO THE GFS THICKNESSES/MDL SOUNDINGS...ESPLY
DURING SAT MORNG WITH THE ONSET OF PCPN...WHERE A CHC OF SLEET
(MAYBE SOME SNOW) WAS ADDED GENERALLY N OF A SOUTH HILL TO
WILLIAMSBURG LINE. BY LATE MORNG OR EARLY AFTN...PCPN WILL BECOME
JUST RAIN EVERYWHERE...AS LAYERS WARM AND SFC TEMPS CLIMB INTO
THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHEST QPF AMTS WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD
END UP ACRS EXTRM SRN/SE VA AND NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONTINUE TO FAVOR A BLENDED SOLUTION LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF AND
ITS MEMBER ENSEMBLES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRIMARY
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS IN REGARDS TO THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER
PATTERN AND THE EVENTUAL STORM TRACK OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COAST LATER FRIDAY. WHILE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE BEEN LITERALLY ALL OVER THE MAP WITH THIS
SYSTEM, THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE OPERATIONAL
CANADIAN REMAIN THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM.

MODELS CAN AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL BE
RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE AREA TO BEGIN THE FORECAST PERIOD FRIDAY
NIGHT. ALSO WIDESPREAD CONSENSUS IN INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AS DEVELOPING UPPER
DISTURBANCE SLIDES NE FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS THE
MID-SOUTH BY 12Z SATURDAY, WITH SFC CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING FRIDAY
NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST. DESPITE SOME CONTINUED TEMPORAL
DIFFERENCES, MODELS ARE MORE OR LESS COMING INTO CONSENSUS WITH
DEPICTION OF A LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER SYSTEM. THE RESULTANT STORM
TRACK WOULD TRACK SFC LOW ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST EARLY SUNDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE AND ANALOGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
OVERRUNNING PCPN QUICKLY INCREASING, WITH LIKELY POPS APPEARING
REASONABLE BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. GIVEN THE TRACK AND THE TRANSIENT, RELATIVELY WEAK SFC
HIGH TO THE NORTH, STILL APPEARS TO BE JUST A COLD RAIN FOR OUR
AREA (HAVE ADDED SLGT CHC IP FOR ABT NW 1/2 HALF OF FA LT FRI
NGT/SAT MRNG GIVEN MDL SOUNDINGS SHOWING IP PROFILE OVR INLAND
PORTIONS OF FA AS PCPN ARRIVES). HAVE HELD ON TO SOME SNOW SHRA
MENTION SAT NIGHT OVER INTERIOR ZONES AS FEW SNOWFLAKES WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS PCPN COMES TO AN END SATURDAY NIGHT/ERY SUN MORNING.
OTHERWISE, PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END QUICKLY INLAND AS SYSTEM
PUSHES E-NE OFFSHORE SUNDAY AFTN/EVE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD, REACHING ABOVE CLIMO BY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM, WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT W TO NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
18Z TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
LATER SATURDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRNT WILL PUSH FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS MORNG WITH WLY FLOW
LEFT IN ITS WAKE. SFC HI PRES THEN SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W TDA THRU
FRI. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE W/NW THRU THE PERIOD. DID HOIST A SCA
FOR NRN CSTL WTRS TNGT WHERE 20-25 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO A
TROF OF LO PRES SLIDING THRU AND SUBSEQUENT CAA SURGE. MAY COME
CLOSE TO CRITERIA OVR THE NRN BAY AS WELL SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR...MAY ALSO BE BRIEF ENUF TO HANDLE WITH A MWS IF NEC.
OTWS...SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS MAINLY 3-4 FT WITH WAVES OVR THE BAY 2-3
FT. SIMILAR CONDS INTO THU AND FRI WITH JUST A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
WINDS EACH DAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A CSTL LO THAT WILL TRACK UP
NEAR THE CAROLINA CST THIS WEEKEND. CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE
DICTATED BY THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS LO...FOR WHICH THERE`S
STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...AJZ






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 172110
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
410 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. ONE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL TRACK FROM
THE GULF COAST STATES EAST NORTHEAST TO JUST OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
DRIER NW FLO WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TNGT INTO THU MORNG...AS
A PIECE OF HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE WNW. MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD WITH
LO TEMPS RANGING FM THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THU INTO EARLY FRI NGT...AS DRY/ZONAL
FLO DOMINATES THE REGION AND SFC HI PRES BLDS ACRS THE GRT LKS
INTO SE CANADA. SHRTWV ENERGY TRACKING FM W-E IN FAST FLO ALOFT
WILL PRODUCE A LITTLE MORE CLOUDINESS THU NGT INTO FRI MORNG.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY THU THRU FRI...WITH HI
TEMPS RANGING THRU THE 40S BOTH DAYS. LOWS THU NGT MAINLY IN THE
UPR 20S TO LWR 30S.

FRI NGT THRU SAT...LEANING CLOSER TO THE SLGTLY FASTER GFS...ESPLY
REGARDING ONSET/OVERSPREADING OF PCPN ACRS THE REGION. AT THIS
TIME...WENT CLOSER TO THE GFS THICKNESSES/MDL SOUNDINGS...ESPLY
DURING SAT MORNG WITH THE ONSET OF PCPN...WHERE A CHC OF SLEET
(MAYBE SOME SNOW) WAS ADDED GENERALLY N OF A SOUTH HILL TO
WILLIAMSBURG LINE. BY LATE MORNG OR EARLY AFTN...PCPN WILL BECOME
JUST RAIN EVERYWHERE...AS LAYERS WARM AND SFC TEMPS CLIMB INTO
THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHEST QPF AMTS WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD
END UP ACRS EXTRM SRN/SE VA AND NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONTINUE TO FAVOR A BLENDED SOLUTION LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF AND
ITS MEMBER ENSEMBLES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRIMARY
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS IN REGARDS TO THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER
PATTERN AND THE EVENTUAL STORM TRACK OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COAST LATER FRIDAY. WHILE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE BEEN LITERALLY ALL OVER THE MAP WITH THIS
SYSTEM, THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE OPERATIONAL
CANADIAN REMAIN THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM.

MODELS CAN AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL BE
RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE AREA TO BEGIN THE FORECAST PERIOD FRIDAY
NIGHT. ALSO WIDESPREAD CONSENSUS IN INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AS DEVELOPING UPPER
DISTURBANCE SLIDES NE FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS THE
MID-SOUTH BY 12Z SATURDAY, WITH SFC CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING FRIDAY
NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST. DESPITE SOME CONTINUED TEMPORAL
DIFFERENCES, MODELS ARE MORE OR LESS COMING INTO CONSENSUS WITH
DEPICTION OF A LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER SYSTEM. THE RESULTANT STORM
TRACK WOULD TRACK SFC LOW ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST EARLY SUNDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE AND ANALOGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
OVERRUNNING PCPN QUICKLY INCREASING, WITH LIKELY POPS APPEARING
REASONABLE BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. GIVEN THE TRACK AND THE TRANSIENT, RELATIVELY WEAK SFC
HIGH TO THE NORTH, STILL APPEARS TO BE JUST A COLD RAIN FOR OUR
AREA (HAVE ADDED SLGT CHC IP FOR ABT NW 1/2 HALF OF FA LT FRI
NGT/SAT MRNG GIVEN MDL SOUNDINGS SHOWING IP PROFILE OVR INLAND
PORTIONS OF FA AS PCPN ARRIVES). HAVE HELD ON TO SOME SNOW SHRA
MENTION SAT NIGHT OVER INTERIOR ZONES AS FEW SNOWFLAKES WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS PCPN COMES TO AN END SATURDAY NIGHT/ERY SUN MORNING.
OTHERWISE, PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END QUICKLY INLAND AS SYSTEM
PUSHES E-NE OFFSHORE SUNDAY AFTN/EVE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD, REACHING ABOVE CLIMO BY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM, WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT W TO NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
18Z TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
LATER SATURDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRNT WILL PUSH FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS MORNG WITH WLY FLOW
LEFT IN ITS WAKE. SFC HI PRES THEN SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W TDA THRU
FRI. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE W/NW THRU THE PERIOD. DID HOIST A SCA
FOR NRN CSTL WTRS TNGT WHERE 20-25 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO A
TROF OF LO PRES SLIDING THRU AND SUBSEQUENT CAA SURGE. MAY COME
CLOSE TO CRITERIA OVR THE NRN BAY AS WELL SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR...MAY ALSO BE BRIEF ENUF TO HANDLE WITH A MWS IF NEC.
OTWS...SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS MAINLY 3-4 FT WITH WAVES OVR THE BAY 2-3
FT. SIMILAR CONDS INTO THU AND FRI WITH JUST A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
WINDS EACH DAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A CSTL LO THAT WILL TRACK UP
NEAR THE CAROLINA CST THIS WEEKEND. CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE
DICTATED BY THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS LO...FOR WHICH THERE`S
STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...AJZ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 172110
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
410 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. ONE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL TRACK FROM
THE GULF COAST STATES EAST NORTHEAST TO JUST OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
DRIER NW FLO WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TNGT INTO THU MORNG...AS
A PIECE OF HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE WNW. MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD WITH
LO TEMPS RANGING FM THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THU INTO EARLY FRI NGT...AS DRY/ZONAL
FLO DOMINATES THE REGION AND SFC HI PRES BLDS ACRS THE GRT LKS
INTO SE CANADA. SHRTWV ENERGY TRACKING FM W-E IN FAST FLO ALOFT
WILL PRODUCE A LITTLE MORE CLOUDINESS THU NGT INTO FRI MORNG.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY THU THRU FRI...WITH HI
TEMPS RANGING THRU THE 40S BOTH DAYS. LOWS THU NGT MAINLY IN THE
UPR 20S TO LWR 30S.

FRI NGT THRU SAT...LEANING CLOSER TO THE SLGTLY FASTER GFS...ESPLY
REGARDING ONSET/OVERSPREADING OF PCPN ACRS THE REGION. AT THIS
TIME...WENT CLOSER TO THE GFS THICKNESSES/MDL SOUNDINGS...ESPLY
DURING SAT MORNG WITH THE ONSET OF PCPN...WHERE A CHC OF SLEET
(MAYBE SOME SNOW) WAS ADDED GENERALLY N OF A SOUTH HILL TO
WILLIAMSBURG LINE. BY LATE MORNG OR EARLY AFTN...PCPN WILL BECOME
JUST RAIN EVERYWHERE...AS LAYERS WARM AND SFC TEMPS CLIMB INTO
THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHEST QPF AMTS WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD
END UP ACRS EXTRM SRN/SE VA AND NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONTINUE TO FAVOR A BLENDED SOLUTION LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF AND
ITS MEMBER ENSEMBLES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRIMARY
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS IN REGARDS TO THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER
PATTERN AND THE EVENTUAL STORM TRACK OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COAST LATER FRIDAY. WHILE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE BEEN LITERALLY ALL OVER THE MAP WITH THIS
SYSTEM, THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE OPERATIONAL
CANADIAN REMAIN THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM.

MODELS CAN AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL BE
RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE AREA TO BEGIN THE FORECAST PERIOD FRIDAY
NIGHT. ALSO WIDESPREAD CONSENSUS IN INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AS DEVELOPING UPPER
DISTURBANCE SLIDES NE FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS THE
MID-SOUTH BY 12Z SATURDAY, WITH SFC CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING FRIDAY
NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST. DESPITE SOME CONTINUED TEMPORAL
DIFFERENCES, MODELS ARE MORE OR LESS COMING INTO CONSENSUS WITH
DEPICTION OF A LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER SYSTEM. THE RESULTANT STORM
TRACK WOULD TRACK SFC LOW ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST EARLY SUNDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE AND ANALOGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
OVERRUNNING PCPN QUICKLY INCREASING, WITH LIKELY POPS APPEARING
REASONABLE BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. GIVEN THE TRACK AND THE TRANSIENT, RELATIVELY WEAK SFC
HIGH TO THE NORTH, STILL APPEARS TO BE JUST A COLD RAIN FOR OUR
AREA (HAVE ADDED SLGT CHC IP FOR ABT NW 1/2 HALF OF FA LT FRI
NGT/SAT MRNG GIVEN MDL SOUNDINGS SHOWING IP PROFILE OVR INLAND
PORTIONS OF FA AS PCPN ARRIVES). HAVE HELD ON TO SOME SNOW SHRA
MENTION SAT NIGHT OVER INTERIOR ZONES AS FEW SNOWFLAKES WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS PCPN COMES TO AN END SATURDAY NIGHT/ERY SUN MORNING.
OTHERWISE, PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END QUICKLY INLAND AS SYSTEM
PUSHES E-NE OFFSHORE SUNDAY AFTN/EVE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD, REACHING ABOVE CLIMO BY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM, WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT W TO NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
18Z TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
LATER SATURDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRNT WILL PUSH FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS MORNG WITH WLY FLOW
LEFT IN ITS WAKE. SFC HI PRES THEN SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W TDA THRU
FRI. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE W/NW THRU THE PERIOD. DID HOIST A SCA
FOR NRN CSTL WTRS TNGT WHERE 20-25 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO A
TROF OF LO PRES SLIDING THRU AND SUBSEQUENT CAA SURGE. MAY COME
CLOSE TO CRITERIA OVR THE NRN BAY AS WELL SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR...MAY ALSO BE BRIEF ENUF TO HANDLE WITH A MWS IF NEC.
OTWS...SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS MAINLY 3-4 FT WITH WAVES OVR THE BAY 2-3
FT. SIMILAR CONDS INTO THU AND FRI WITH JUST A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
WINDS EACH DAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A CSTL LO THAT WILL TRACK UP
NEAR THE CAROLINA CST THIS WEEKEND. CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE
DICTATED BY THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS LO...FOR WHICH THERE`S
STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...AJZ






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 172110
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
410 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. ONE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL TRACK FROM
THE GULF COAST STATES EAST NORTHEAST TO JUST OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
DRIER NW FLO WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TNGT INTO THU MORNG...AS
A PIECE OF HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE WNW. MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD WITH
LO TEMPS RANGING FM THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THU INTO EARLY FRI NGT...AS DRY/ZONAL
FLO DOMINATES THE REGION AND SFC HI PRES BLDS ACRS THE GRT LKS
INTO SE CANADA. SHRTWV ENERGY TRACKING FM W-E IN FAST FLO ALOFT
WILL PRODUCE A LITTLE MORE CLOUDINESS THU NGT INTO FRI MORNG.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY THU THRU FRI...WITH HI
TEMPS RANGING THRU THE 40S BOTH DAYS. LOWS THU NGT MAINLY IN THE
UPR 20S TO LWR 30S.

FRI NGT THRU SAT...LEANING CLOSER TO THE SLGTLY FASTER GFS...ESPLY
REGARDING ONSET/OVERSPREADING OF PCPN ACRS THE REGION. AT THIS
TIME...WENT CLOSER TO THE GFS THICKNESSES/MDL SOUNDINGS...ESPLY
DURING SAT MORNG WITH THE ONSET OF PCPN...WHERE A CHC OF SLEET
(MAYBE SOME SNOW) WAS ADDED GENERALLY N OF A SOUTH HILL TO
WILLIAMSBURG LINE. BY LATE MORNG OR EARLY AFTN...PCPN WILL BECOME
JUST RAIN EVERYWHERE...AS LAYERS WARM AND SFC TEMPS CLIMB INTO
THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHEST QPF AMTS WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD
END UP ACRS EXTRM SRN/SE VA AND NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONTINUE TO FAVOR A BLENDED SOLUTION LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF AND
ITS MEMBER ENSEMBLES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRIMARY
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS IN REGARDS TO THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER
PATTERN AND THE EVENTUAL STORM TRACK OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COAST LATER FRIDAY. WHILE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE BEEN LITERALLY ALL OVER THE MAP WITH THIS
SYSTEM, THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE OPERATIONAL
CANADIAN REMAIN THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM.

MODELS CAN AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL BE
RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE AREA TO BEGIN THE FORECAST PERIOD FRIDAY
NIGHT. ALSO WIDESPREAD CONSENSUS IN INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AS DEVELOPING UPPER
DISTURBANCE SLIDES NE FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS THE
MID-SOUTH BY 12Z SATURDAY, WITH SFC CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING FRIDAY
NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST. DESPITE SOME CONTINUED TEMPORAL
DIFFERENCES, MODELS ARE MORE OR LESS COMING INTO CONSENSUS WITH
DEPICTION OF A LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER SYSTEM. THE RESULTANT STORM
TRACK WOULD TRACK SFC LOW ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST EARLY SUNDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE AND ANALOGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
OVERRUNNING PCPN QUICKLY INCREASING, WITH LIKELY POPS APPEARING
REASONABLE BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. GIVEN THE TRACK AND THE TRANSIENT, RELATIVELY WEAK SFC
HIGH TO THE NORTH, STILL APPEARS TO BE JUST A COLD RAIN FOR OUR
AREA (HAVE ADDED SLGT CHC IP FOR ABT NW 1/2 HALF OF FA LT FRI
NGT/SAT MRNG GIVEN MDL SOUNDINGS SHOWING IP PROFILE OVR INLAND
PORTIONS OF FA AS PCPN ARRIVES). HAVE HELD ON TO SOME SNOW SHRA
MENTION SAT NIGHT OVER INTERIOR ZONES AS FEW SNOWFLAKES WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS PCPN COMES TO AN END SATURDAY NIGHT/ERY SUN MORNING.
OTHERWISE, PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END QUICKLY INLAND AS SYSTEM
PUSHES E-NE OFFSHORE SUNDAY AFTN/EVE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD, REACHING ABOVE CLIMO BY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM, WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT W TO NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
18Z TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
LATER SATURDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRNT WILL PUSH FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS MORNG WITH WLY FLOW
LEFT IN ITS WAKE. SFC HI PRES THEN SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W TDA THRU
FRI. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE W/NW THRU THE PERIOD. DID HOIST A SCA
FOR NRN CSTL WTRS TNGT WHERE 20-25 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO A
TROF OF LO PRES SLIDING THRU AND SUBSEQUENT CAA SURGE. MAY COME
CLOSE TO CRITERIA OVR THE NRN BAY AS WELL SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR...MAY ALSO BE BRIEF ENUF TO HANDLE WITH A MWS IF NEC.
OTWS...SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS MAINLY 3-4 FT WITH WAVES OVR THE BAY 2-3
FT. SIMILAR CONDS INTO THU AND FRI WITH JUST A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
WINDS EACH DAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A CSTL LO THAT WILL TRACK UP
NEAR THE CAROLINA CST THIS WEEKEND. CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE
DICTATED BY THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS LO...FOR WHICH THERE`S
STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...AJZ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 171938
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
238 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DRYING WNW FLO WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THIS AFTN...RESULTING IN A
DECENT MID DEC DAY ACRS THE CWA. UNDER A PARTLY OR MOSTLY SUNNY
SKY...HI TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LWR TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY/ZONAL FLO WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH FRI. WK SFC HI PRES
WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE MDATLC RGN FM THE W. A COUPLE OF WK
SYSTEMS ALOFT TRACKING W-E IN FAST FLO ALOFT THROUGH END OF THE
WK...XPCG SKY CONDS FM MSTLY CLR TO PCLDY. HI TEMPS THU AND FRI
RANGING FM THE L40S N TO ARND 50F S. LO TEMPS MNLY RANGING FM THE
U20S TO M30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONTINUE TO FAVOR A BLENDED SOLUTION LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF AND
ITS MEMBER ENSEMBLES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRIMARY
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS IN REGARDS TO THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER
PATTERN AND THE EVENTUAL STORM TRACK OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COAST LATER FRIDAY. WHILE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE BEEN LITERALLY ALL OVER THE MAP WITH THIS
SYSTEM, THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE OPERATIONAL
CANADIAN REMAIN THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM.

MODELS CAN AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL BE
RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE AREA TO BEGIN THE FORECAST PERIOD FRIDAY
NIGHT. ALSO WIDESPREAD CONSENSUS IN INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AS DEVELOPING UPPER
DISTURBANCE SLIDES NE FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS THE
MID-SOUTH BY 12Z SATURDAY, WITH SFC CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING FRIDAY
NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST. DESPITE SOME CONTINUED TEMPORAL
DIFFERENCES, MODELS ARE MORE OR LESS COMING INTO CONSENSUS WITH
DEPICTION OF A LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER SYSTEM. THE RESULTANT STORM
TRACK WOULD TRACK SFC LOW ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST EARLY SUNDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE AND ANALOGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
OVERRUNNING PCPN QUICKLY INCREASING, WITH LIKELY POPS APPEARING
REASONABLE BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. GIVEN THE TRACK AND THE TRANSIENT, RELATIVELY WEAK SFC
HIGH TO THE NORTH, STILL APPEARS TO BE JUST A COLD RAIN FOR OUR
AREA (HAVE ADDED SLGT CHC IP FOR ABT NW 1/2 HALF OF FA LT FRI
NGT/SAT MRNG GIVEN MDL SOUNDINGS SHOWING IP PROFILE OVR INLAND
PORTIONS OF FA AS PCPN ARRIVES). HAVE HELD ON TO SOME SNOW SHRA
MENTION SAT NIGHT OVER INTERIOR ZONES AS FEW SNOWFLAKES WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS PCPN COMES TO AN END SATURDAY NIGHT/ERY SUN MORNING.
OTHERWISE, PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END QUICKLY INLAND AS SYSTEM
PUSHES E-NE OFFSHORE SUNDAY AFTN/EVE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD, REACHING ABOVE CLIMO BY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM, WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT W TO NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
18Z TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
LATER SATURDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRNT WILL PUSH FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS MORNG WITH WLY FLOW
LEFT IN ITS WAKE. SFC HI PRES THEN SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W TDA THRU
FRI. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE W/NW THRU THE PERIOD. DID HOIST A SCA
FOR NRN CSTL WTRS TNGT WHERE 20-25 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO A
TROF OF LO PRES SLIDING THRU AND SUBSEQUENT CAA SURGE. MAY COME
CLOSE TO CRITERIA OVR THE NRN BAY AS WELL SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR...MAY ALSO BE BRIEF ENUF TO HANDLE WITH A MWS IF NEC.
OTWS...SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS MAINLY 3-4 FT WITH WAVES OVR THE BAY 2-3
FT. SIMILAR CONDS INTO THU AND FRI WITH JUST A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
WINDS EACH DAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A CSTL LO THAT WILL TRACK UP
NEAR THE CAROLINA CST THIS WEEKEND. CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE
DICTATED BY THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS LO...FOR WHICH THERE`S
STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB/TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...ALB/MAM
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...MAS






000
FXUS61 KLWX 171936
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
236 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN TO THE AREA FOR THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK. A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP IN THE OHIO
VALLEY DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

HIGH PRES BLDG INTO THE AREA HAS CAUSED WNW WINDS TO GUST INTO
THE L20S THIS AFTN. WINDS SHOULD ABATE THIS EVE ALLOWING FOR GOOD
RAD CONDS. LOWS TNGT WL BE IN THE 25-30 RANGE ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE CWA...A20 IN THE HIGHLANDS...LM30S IN THE CITIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...

NO PROBS XPCTD THU. HIGH PRES OVR THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DAY
W/ TEMPS NEAR CLIMO FOR MID DEC. HIGHS IN THE M40S FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...L30S IN THE HIGHLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TOWARD NEWFOUNDLAND
THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A
DAMPENING SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH IN THE FAST SOUTHERN STREAM.
DESPITE A FEW MODELS TRYING TO PRODUCE QPF IN UPSLOPE AREAS...THINK
THE MOISTURE PROFILES ONLY SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
GOOD GUIDANCE AGREEMENT WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 20S
IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 30S METROS/EAST.

DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS IN FULLY. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL WINDS TAKE ON A BIT MORE
OF A NW DIRECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH...LEADING TO WEAK CAA.
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S. HIGH/MID CLOUDS INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. SPEED/THICKNESS OF
CLOUDS MAY DETERMINE HOW LOW TEMPS DROP SINCE DEW POINTS REMAIN LOW
WITH LIGHT WINDS. TRENDED TOWARD SLIGHTLY WARMER GFS/ECMWF RAW TEMPS
WITH LOWS NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING.

MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN THE INTENSITY OF LOW PRESSURE AFFECTING THE
MID-ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND AND TAKE THE HIGHEST QPF OVER THE
CAROLINAS. IN THE LAST 3 DAYS GUIDANCE HAS TAKEN THE SYSTEM FROM A
POTENT CLOSED LOW OFF NORFOLK AT 6Z SUNDAY TO AN OPEN WAVE WITH
THE MAJORITY OF ITS ENERGY WELL TO OUR SOUTH. CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN
THE CURRENT SOLUTION THAT THE MAJORITY OF PRECIP WITH THE
SYSTEM...OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...SHOULD BE RAIN...AND QPF
WILL BE FAIRLY LOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE THE TEMPS ARE
LOWEST. ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE FOCUSED ALONG AND WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...THOUGH THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA TO SEE AT LEAST A COUPLE SNOW FLAKES. PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT OF
THE AREA BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY.

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS MONDAY
WILL KEEP WEATHER ACTIVE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WORKWEEK. BROAD
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
COULD HELP LIFT A STALLED COASTAL FRONT ACROSS THE AREA AS A WARM
FRONT SOMETIME MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. HAVE INCLUDED LOW END CHANCE
POPS IN THIS TIME FRAME TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MAY THEN FORM WITHIN THE COLD FRONT OF THE LARGER PARENT LOW AND
MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING HIGH END
CHANCE POPS INTO THE FORECAST. EARLY IMPRESSIONS ARE THAT P-TYPE
WILL BE LARGELY ELEVATION DEPENDENT WILL LOWER ELEVATIONS MOSTLY
SEEING RAIN. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE TIMING AND DETAILS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/POST WARM FRONT...WHEN
TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

VFR CONDS XPCTD TNGT AND THU.

THU NIGHT-FRI NIGHT...VFR CONDTIONS AND W/NW SURFACE WINDS.

MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...

SOME SPOTS ON THE BAY/PTMC ARE REACHING SCA LVL GUSTS...ALTHO
THIS HAS NOT BEEN WIDESPREAD TDA. WIND SHOULD BECOME LGTR
OVRNGT....BUT ENOUGH PRES GRAD SHOULD EXIST THU TO AGN CREATE SCA
GUSTS.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY EVENING. NW WIND GUSTS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE MARGINAL FOR A SCA...BUT ONE MAY BE NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DEPENDING ON THE EFFICIENCY OF ATMOSPHERIC
MIXING. LIGHT WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OCCURRENCE OF ANY MARINE HAZARDS IN THE
LONG TERM.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/ADS/CEB






000
FXUS61 KLWX 171936
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
236 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN TO THE AREA FOR THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK. A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP IN THE OHIO
VALLEY DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

HIGH PRES BLDG INTO THE AREA HAS CAUSED WNW WINDS TO GUST INTO
THE L20S THIS AFTN. WINDS SHOULD ABATE THIS EVE ALLOWING FOR GOOD
RAD CONDS. LOWS TNGT WL BE IN THE 25-30 RANGE ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE CWA...A20 IN THE HIGHLANDS...LM30S IN THE CITIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...

NO PROBS XPCTD THU. HIGH PRES OVR THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DAY
W/ TEMPS NEAR CLIMO FOR MID DEC. HIGHS IN THE M40S FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...L30S IN THE HIGHLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TOWARD NEWFOUNDLAND
THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A
DAMPENING SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH IN THE FAST SOUTHERN STREAM.
DESPITE A FEW MODELS TRYING TO PRODUCE QPF IN UPSLOPE AREAS...THINK
THE MOISTURE PROFILES ONLY SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
GOOD GUIDANCE AGREEMENT WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 20S
IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 30S METROS/EAST.

DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS IN FULLY. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL WINDS TAKE ON A BIT MORE
OF A NW DIRECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH...LEADING TO WEAK CAA.
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S. HIGH/MID CLOUDS INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. SPEED/THICKNESS OF
CLOUDS MAY DETERMINE HOW LOW TEMPS DROP SINCE DEW POINTS REMAIN LOW
WITH LIGHT WINDS. TRENDED TOWARD SLIGHTLY WARMER GFS/ECMWF RAW TEMPS
WITH LOWS NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING.

MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN THE INTENSITY OF LOW PRESSURE AFFECTING THE
MID-ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND AND TAKE THE HIGHEST QPF OVER THE
CAROLINAS. IN THE LAST 3 DAYS GUIDANCE HAS TAKEN THE SYSTEM FROM A
POTENT CLOSED LOW OFF NORFOLK AT 6Z SUNDAY TO AN OPEN WAVE WITH
THE MAJORITY OF ITS ENERGY WELL TO OUR SOUTH. CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN
THE CURRENT SOLUTION THAT THE MAJORITY OF PRECIP WITH THE
SYSTEM...OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...SHOULD BE RAIN...AND QPF
WILL BE FAIRLY LOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE THE TEMPS ARE
LOWEST. ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE FOCUSED ALONG AND WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...THOUGH THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA TO SEE AT LEAST A COUPLE SNOW FLAKES. PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT OF
THE AREA BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY.

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS MONDAY
WILL KEEP WEATHER ACTIVE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WORKWEEK. BROAD
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
COULD HELP LIFT A STALLED COASTAL FRONT ACROSS THE AREA AS A WARM
FRONT SOMETIME MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. HAVE INCLUDED LOW END CHANCE
POPS IN THIS TIME FRAME TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MAY THEN FORM WITHIN THE COLD FRONT OF THE LARGER PARENT LOW AND
MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING HIGH END
CHANCE POPS INTO THE FORECAST. EARLY IMPRESSIONS ARE THAT P-TYPE
WILL BE LARGELY ELEVATION DEPENDENT WILL LOWER ELEVATIONS MOSTLY
SEEING RAIN. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE TIMING AND DETAILS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/POST WARM FRONT...WHEN
TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

VFR CONDS XPCTD TNGT AND THU.

THU NIGHT-FRI NIGHT...VFR CONDTIONS AND W/NW SURFACE WINDS.

MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...

SOME SPOTS ON THE BAY/PTMC ARE REACHING SCA LVL GUSTS...ALTHO
THIS HAS NOT BEEN WIDESPREAD TDA. WIND SHOULD BECOME LGTR
OVRNGT....BUT ENOUGH PRES GRAD SHOULD EXIST THU TO AGN CREATE SCA
GUSTS.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY EVENING. NW WIND GUSTS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE MARGINAL FOR A SCA...BUT ONE MAY BE NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DEPENDING ON THE EFFICIENCY OF ATMOSPHERIC
MIXING. LIGHT WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OCCURRENCE OF ANY MARINE HAZARDS IN THE
LONG TERM.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/ADS/CEB







000
FXUS61 KRNK 171848
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
148 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT RESULTING IN OVERALL DRIER WEATHER UNDER
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE MOISTURE STARTS TO RETURN AHEAD
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH A
MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE DRIER WEATHER RETURNS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

STRONG DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND DRYING HAS DONE A GOOD JOB AT
MITIGATING THE COLD AIR ADVECTION CLOUDINESS FROM YESTERDAYS
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF JUST THE WESTERN SLOPES OF
THE WV MTNS...DECREASED CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON ANTICIPATING
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. MODELS DO HINT AT SOME MOUNTAIN WAVE CIRRUS
DEVELOPING MID AFTERNOON. AS OF 1PM...NOT SEEING MUCH.

WITH THE NEXT GRID UPDATE WILL NIX POPS ON THE WESTERN SLOPES.
MOISTURE HAS BECOME TOO SHALLOW AND CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE
BECOME TOO WARM TO SUPPORT PRECIP DEVELOPMENT.

FOR TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS BY TO THE NE OVERNIGHT ALLOWING
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER
FAST BUT ZONAL CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT LIKELY TO BRING SOME SHEARED
MID/HIGH CLOUDS IN AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING ESPCLY SOUTH BEFORE
FADING SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT PER GUIDANCE RH SECTIONS. OTRW STILL
EXPECTING NW FLOW TO KEEP LOW CLOUDS BANKED UP AGAINST THE WESTERN
SLOPES WITH PERHAPS ADDED FREEZING DRIZZLE IN SPOTS BUT GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY WONT INCLUDE FOR NOW. LOW CLOUDS COULD AGAIN SPILL OUT
TO THE BLUE RIDGE LATE WITH MAINLY PC ELSW FOR HIGH CLOUDS. COMBO
OF ADDED MIXING AND CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP...WITH UNIFORM
UPPER 20S/LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FEW MID 20S VALLEYS
PENDING CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

EXPECT THURSDAY TO BEGIN WITH FAIR WEATHER EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...
BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE OVERCAST WEST OF THE RIDGE THANKS TO NW
UPSLOPE FLOW AND A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...WHICH IS SHOWN NICELY BY BUFKIT MODEL
SOUNDINGS. JUST AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ON THE WAY OUT WE
TRANSITION TO SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. MODELS CONTINUE TO JUST
WHEN THIS SHALLOW MOISTURE IS DISSIPATING...MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
SPREAD OVER THE AREA AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
IN ZONAL UPPER FLOW. VARIATIONS ON THIS THEME FOR THURSDAY HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISED BY GUIDANCE FOR THE PAST FEW RUNS. BELIEVE WE WILL LACK
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO GENERATE ANYTHING MORE THAN A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY
FOR THE RIDGES SO WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS AT OR BELOW SLIGHT
CHANCE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. FAIR CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES BY TO OUR NORTH AND
STARTS WORKING ITS WAY DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS A WEAK WEDGE.

OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WE
HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES FROM THE
GULF COAST THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEKEND. OVERALL...THE LOW
AMPLITUDE SPLIT FLOW UPPER PATTERN IS NOT VERY CONDUCIVE TO
SUPPORTING A MAJOR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A TRAILING NORTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS NEVER ABLE TO
CATCH AND PHASE WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE...WHICH PREVENTS
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROF TO GENERATE A *MILLER A*
TYPE COASTAL LOW. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR THE LOW TO SCOOT
BY TO OUR SOUTH AND DELIVER THE BULK OF ITS OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION TO US SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.

PRECIPITATION TYPE IS GOING TO BE A MAJOR CHALLENGE WITH THIS SYSTEM
AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARGINAL OVER THE AREA AND THE LOW WILL NOT
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH.
EXPECT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO BE FOR A
MIX AT THE START SATURDAY MORNING...TO MAINLY RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME
FREEZING RAIN FOR THE PIEDMONT WITH THE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
HOLDING SHALLOW COLD AIR NEAR THE SURFACE...BACK TO MIX SATURDAY
NIGHT AS PRECIPITATION LESSENS. BLUE RIDGE WEST WILL SEE THINGS
START AS SNOW...THEN GO TO A MIX...THEN BACK TO SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THINGS WINDING DOWN. THE BEST CHANCE OF A MOSTLY SNOW EVENT
SEEMS TO BE THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES ON INTO THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS
WHERE A SLUSHY COUPLE OF INCHES IS POSSIBLE. MANY DETAILS HAVE YET
TO EMERGE WITH THIS SYSTEM SO EXPECT PRECIPITATION TYPE AND
POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS TO CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT AND
THINGS COME INTO FOCUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST TUESDAY...

LATEST 00Z ECMWF SHOWS WEAK LOW PRESSURE SLIDING NE ALONG THE N
CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN AXIS OF DEFORMATION PRECIP
INLAND ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ESPCLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER
ADDED QPF LOOKS RATHER LIGHT AND MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AT
THIS POINT WHERE LIKELY MORE LIQUID NATURE TO START THE EVENING.

MAJORITY OF THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP SHOULD BE EXITING TO EAST
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS MOST SEEING THINGS TAPER OFF AS
A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW AS COLDER AIR FINALLY WRAPS IN. HOWEVER
THIS PENDING LATER TIMING AND MODEL TRENDS WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT
AND THE DEGREE OF COVERAGE OF THE PRECIP SATURDAY EVENING.

BY SUNDAY...THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS THAT THE
AREA WILL BE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH ENOUGH COLD AIR
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A STIFF NORTHWEST WIND TRAJECTORY FOR
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WEST TO CONCLUDE THE EVENT.

BY THE TIME WE GET TO SUNDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE LIFTING OUT OF THE REGION...AND
SUB FREEZING AIR WILL HAVE WRAPPED IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM AT THE
LOWER LEVELS. ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION HAS A GREATER CHANCE TO
BE SNOW OR RAIN WITHOUT THE PRESENCE OF A WARM NOSE ALOFT. BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE PREFERRED AREA OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND
NEIGHBORING PARTS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA WILL GRADUALLY ERODE AS
DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE REGION AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
GRADUALLY BACKS WEST TO SOUTHWEST.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE THE REGION
WITH LIGHT WINDS...LIMITED CLOUD COVER AND NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY. THE GFS
IS QUICK TO BRING THE COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKE REGION. THIS
SYSTEM IS KEPT DISTINCT FROM A DISTURBANCE OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS THAT HAS LITTLE OR NO INTERACTION WITH THE GREAT LAKES
TROUGH THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF OUR FORECAST PERIOD. FOLLOWING
THIS SOLUTION YIELD LIMITED COVERAGE OF RAIN OR SNOW REACHING THE
WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY TUESDAY. THE
ECMWF SOLUTION ALSO HAS THE TWO SYSTEMS DISTINCT THROUGH
TUESDAY...BUT FOR A DIFFERENT REASON. THIS SOLUTIONS IS FARTHER WEST
WITH THE COASTAL SYSTEM...AND WRAPS MOISTURE...AND A WARM
NOSE...INTO OUR AREA DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY TUESDAY. THE GREAT
LAKES SYSTEM IS NOT AS PROGRESSIVE...AND HAS THE TIME TO ELONGATE MORE
SOUTH INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. IF THE ECMWF IS ON
TRACK...THE AREA WILL HAVE A GENEROUS COVERAGE OF A WINTRY MIX
MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. OUR
FORECAST AT THIS POINT WILL RESEMBLE MORE THAT OF THE GFS.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE TRICKY. WHILE WE ARE
EXPECTING A GENERAL TREND TOWARDS MILDER TEMPERATURES EACH DAY PAST
TUESDAY...HOW MUCH...AND WHERE ANY SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW
ARE DEPOSITED WILL PLAY A FACTOR IN BOTH THE HIGHS AND THE LOWS. AT
THIS POINT...AM LEANING ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE...WITH SOME
ALLOTMENT TOWARDS EVEN MORE COOLER WHERE...AT LEAST NOW...THE BEST
CHANCE OF SNOW IS EXPECTED. AT THIS POINT...WILL NOT TOUCH THE FOG
POTENTIAL ONCE WE START TO GET INTO THE RETURN FLOW SIDE OF THE
SURFACE HIGH. ALTHOUGH...AS MILDER AIR STARTS ADVECTING ACROSS ANY
REMAINING SNOWPACK...THE DEW POINT OF THAT AIR WILL LIKELY BE MILDER
THAN THE TEMPERATURE OF THE SNOW IT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SURFACE WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON...GUSTS DIMINISHING TOWARD SUNSET. LOW CLOUDS FROM THIS
MORNING HAVE DISSIPATED EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...BUT REMAIN ON THE
WEST SIDE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE.
KBLF/KLWB ARE NEAR THE TRANSITION BETWEEN THE LOW CLOUDS TO THE
WEST AND ESSENTIALLY NO LOW CLOUDINESS TO THE EAST. THIS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD...WITH MVFR
AND OCNL IFR CONDITIONS WEST OF KLWB/KBLF...AND VFR FOR
KROA/KLYH/KDAN.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK RELATIVELY BENIGN...THOUGH LOWER MVFR CIGS
WILL LINGER IN THE WEST THURSDAY.

THE FRI NIGHT-SAT SYSTEM NOW HAS TRENDED WEAKER BUT WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED AS IT WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF SUB VFR
WINTRY WEATHER ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST SAT.

AVIATION INTERESTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION AS LATER
FORECASTS BECOME AVAILABLE. THIS WILL LIKELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON AIR
TRAVEL OVER THE WEEKEND...FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
CAROLINAS NORTH TO THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...JH/PM
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...DS/JH
AVIATION...PM




000
FXUS61 KRNK 171848
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
148 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT RESULTING IN OVERALL DRIER WEATHER UNDER
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE MOISTURE STARTS TO RETURN AHEAD
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH A
MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE DRIER WEATHER RETURNS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

STRONG DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND DRYING HAS DONE A GOOD JOB AT
MITIGATING THE COLD AIR ADVECTION CLOUDINESS FROM YESTERDAYS
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF JUST THE WESTERN SLOPES OF
THE WV MTNS...DECREASED CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON ANTICIPATING
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. MODELS DO HINT AT SOME MOUNTAIN WAVE CIRRUS
DEVELOPING MID AFTERNOON. AS OF 1PM...NOT SEEING MUCH.

WITH THE NEXT GRID UPDATE WILL NIX POPS ON THE WESTERN SLOPES.
MOISTURE HAS BECOME TOO SHALLOW AND CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE
BECOME TOO WARM TO SUPPORT PRECIP DEVELOPMENT.

FOR TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS BY TO THE NE OVERNIGHT ALLOWING
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER
FAST BUT ZONAL CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT LIKELY TO BRING SOME SHEARED
MID/HIGH CLOUDS IN AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING ESPCLY SOUTH BEFORE
FADING SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT PER GUIDANCE RH SECTIONS. OTRW STILL
EXPECTING NW FLOW TO KEEP LOW CLOUDS BANKED UP AGAINST THE WESTERN
SLOPES WITH PERHAPS ADDED FREEZING DRIZZLE IN SPOTS BUT GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY WONT INCLUDE FOR NOW. LOW CLOUDS COULD AGAIN SPILL OUT
TO THE BLUE RIDGE LATE WITH MAINLY PC ELSW FOR HIGH CLOUDS. COMBO
OF ADDED MIXING AND CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP...WITH UNIFORM
UPPER 20S/LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FEW MID 20S VALLEYS
PENDING CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

EXPECT THURSDAY TO BEGIN WITH FAIR WEATHER EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...
BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE OVERCAST WEST OF THE RIDGE THANKS TO NW
UPSLOPE FLOW AND A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...WHICH IS SHOWN NICELY BY BUFKIT MODEL
SOUNDINGS. JUST AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ON THE WAY OUT WE
TRANSITION TO SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. MODELS CONTINUE TO JUST
WHEN THIS SHALLOW MOISTURE IS DISSIPATING...MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
SPREAD OVER THE AREA AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
IN ZONAL UPPER FLOW. VARIATIONS ON THIS THEME FOR THURSDAY HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISED BY GUIDANCE FOR THE PAST FEW RUNS. BELIEVE WE WILL LACK
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO GENERATE ANYTHING MORE THAN A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY
FOR THE RIDGES SO WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS AT OR BELOW SLIGHT
CHANCE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. FAIR CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES BY TO OUR NORTH AND
STARTS WORKING ITS WAY DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS A WEAK WEDGE.

OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WE
HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES FROM THE
GULF COAST THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEKEND. OVERALL...THE LOW
AMPLITUDE SPLIT FLOW UPPER PATTERN IS NOT VERY CONDUCIVE TO
SUPPORTING A MAJOR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A TRAILING NORTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS NEVER ABLE TO
CATCH AND PHASE WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE...WHICH PREVENTS
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROF TO GENERATE A *MILLER A*
TYPE COASTAL LOW. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR THE LOW TO SCOOT
BY TO OUR SOUTH AND DELIVER THE BULK OF ITS OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION TO US SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.

PRECIPITATION TYPE IS GOING TO BE A MAJOR CHALLENGE WITH THIS SYSTEM
AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARGINAL OVER THE AREA AND THE LOW WILL NOT
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH.
EXPECT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO BE FOR A
MIX AT THE START SATURDAY MORNING...TO MAINLY RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME
FREEZING RAIN FOR THE PIEDMONT WITH THE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
HOLDING SHALLOW COLD AIR NEAR THE SURFACE...BACK TO MIX SATURDAY
NIGHT AS PRECIPITATION LESSENS. BLUE RIDGE WEST WILL SEE THINGS
START AS SNOW...THEN GO TO A MIX...THEN BACK TO SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THINGS WINDING DOWN. THE BEST CHANCE OF A MOSTLY SNOW EVENT
SEEMS TO BE THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES ON INTO THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS
WHERE A SLUSHY COUPLE OF INCHES IS POSSIBLE. MANY DETAILS HAVE YET
TO EMERGE WITH THIS SYSTEM SO EXPECT PRECIPITATION TYPE AND
POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS TO CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT AND
THINGS COME INTO FOCUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST TUESDAY...

LATEST 00Z ECMWF SHOWS WEAK LOW PRESSURE SLIDING NE ALONG THE N
CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN AXIS OF DEFORMATION PRECIP
INLAND ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ESPCLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER
ADDED QPF LOOKS RATHER LIGHT AND MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AT
THIS POINT WHERE LIKELY MORE LIQUID NATURE TO START THE EVENING.

MAJORITY OF THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP SHOULD BE EXITING TO EAST
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS MOST SEEING THINGS TAPER OFF AS
A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW AS COLDER AIR FINALLY WRAPS IN. HOWEVER
THIS PENDING LATER TIMING AND MODEL TRENDS WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT
AND THE DEGREE OF COVERAGE OF THE PRECIP SATURDAY EVENING.

BY SUNDAY...THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS THAT THE
AREA WILL BE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH ENOUGH COLD AIR
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A STIFF NORTHWEST WIND TRAJECTORY FOR
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WEST TO CONCLUDE THE EVENT.

BY THE TIME WE GET TO SUNDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE LIFTING OUT OF THE REGION...AND
SUB FREEZING AIR WILL HAVE WRAPPED IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM AT THE
LOWER LEVELS. ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION HAS A GREATER CHANCE TO
BE SNOW OR RAIN WITHOUT THE PRESENCE OF A WARM NOSE ALOFT. BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE PREFERRED AREA OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND
NEIGHBORING PARTS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA WILL GRADUALLY ERODE AS
DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE REGION AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
GRADUALLY BACKS WEST TO SOUTHWEST.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE THE REGION
WITH LIGHT WINDS...LIMITED CLOUD COVER AND NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY. THE GFS
IS QUICK TO BRING THE COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKE REGION. THIS
SYSTEM IS KEPT DISTINCT FROM A DISTURBANCE OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS THAT HAS LITTLE OR NO INTERACTION WITH THE GREAT LAKES
TROUGH THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF OUR FORECAST PERIOD. FOLLOWING
THIS SOLUTION YIELD LIMITED COVERAGE OF RAIN OR SNOW REACHING THE
WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY TUESDAY. THE
ECMWF SOLUTION ALSO HAS THE TWO SYSTEMS DISTINCT THROUGH
TUESDAY...BUT FOR A DIFFERENT REASON. THIS SOLUTIONS IS FARTHER WEST
WITH THE COASTAL SYSTEM...AND WRAPS MOISTURE...AND A WARM
NOSE...INTO OUR AREA DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY TUESDAY. THE GREAT
LAKES SYSTEM IS NOT AS PROGRESSIVE...AND HAS THE TIME TO ELONGATE MORE
SOUTH INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. IF THE ECMWF IS ON
TRACK...THE AREA WILL HAVE A GENEROUS COVERAGE OF A WINTRY MIX
MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. OUR
FORECAST AT THIS POINT WILL RESEMBLE MORE THAT OF THE GFS.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE TRICKY. WHILE WE ARE
EXPECTING A GENERAL TREND TOWARDS MILDER TEMPERATURES EACH DAY PAST
TUESDAY...HOW MUCH...AND WHERE ANY SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW
ARE DEPOSITED WILL PLAY A FACTOR IN BOTH THE HIGHS AND THE LOWS. AT
THIS POINT...AM LEANING ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE...WITH SOME
ALLOTMENT TOWARDS EVEN MORE COOLER WHERE...AT LEAST NOW...THE BEST
CHANCE OF SNOW IS EXPECTED. AT THIS POINT...WILL NOT TOUCH THE FOG
POTENTIAL ONCE WE START TO GET INTO THE RETURN FLOW SIDE OF THE
SURFACE HIGH. ALTHOUGH...AS MILDER AIR STARTS ADVECTING ACROSS ANY
REMAINING SNOWPACK...THE DEW POINT OF THAT AIR WILL LIKELY BE MILDER
THAN THE TEMPERATURE OF THE SNOW IT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SURFACE WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON...GUSTS DIMINISHING TOWARD SUNSET. LOW CLOUDS FROM THIS
MORNING HAVE DISSIPATED EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...BUT REMAIN ON THE
WEST SIDE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE.
KBLF/KLWB ARE NEAR THE TRANSITION BETWEEN THE LOW CLOUDS TO THE
WEST AND ESSENTIALLY NO LOW CLOUDINESS TO THE EAST. THIS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD...WITH MVFR
AND OCNL IFR CONDITIONS WEST OF KLWB/KBLF...AND VFR FOR
KROA/KLYH/KDAN.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK RELATIVELY BENIGN...THOUGH LOWER MVFR CIGS
WILL LINGER IN THE WEST THURSDAY.

THE FRI NIGHT-SAT SYSTEM NOW HAS TRENDED WEAKER BUT WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED AS IT WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF SUB VFR
WINTRY WEATHER ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST SAT.

AVIATION INTERESTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION AS LATER
FORECASTS BECOME AVAILABLE. THIS WILL LIKELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON AIR
TRAVEL OVER THE WEEKEND...FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
CAROLINAS NORTH TO THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...JH/PM
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...DS/JH
AVIATION...PM



000
FXUS61 KRNK 171600
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1100 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT RESULTING IN OVERALL DRIER WEATHER UNDER
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE MOISTURE STARTS TO RETURN AHEAD
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH A
MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE DRIER WEATHER RETURNS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR AT 85H NOW CROSSING THE BLUE RIDGE IN
WAKE OF YESTERDAYS FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOW CLOUDS WITHIN THE COLD
ADVECTION ALSO SPILLING OUT TO THE FOOTHILLS...BUT SHOULD
DISSIPATE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE PER DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND DRYING.
LOW DECK ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE WV HIGHLANDS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST FOR THE ENTIRE DAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN THE WESTERN SLOPES AND THE BLUE RIDGE...CLOUDS THINNING
ACROSS THE NEW RIVER AND GREENBRIER VALLEYS.

MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES TO ACCOUNT FOR
UPSLOPE PRECIP. MODELS SHOW THIS MOISTURE TO BE QUITE SHALLOW
SO IT SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT MOST...MAINLY
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES. DEEP WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS
QUITE BLUSTERY WEST AND BREEZY EAST. RANGE OF HIGH TEMPS FROM
UPPER 30S/AROUND 40 NW TO MID 50S SE LOOKS ON TAP WITH DOWNSLOPE
AIDED WARMING EAST WHERE WILL BE WEAKENING COOL ADVECTION WITH
TIME.

UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS BY TO THE NE OVERNIGHT ALLOWING WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TO GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER FAST BUT
ZONAL CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT LIKELY TO BRING SOME SHEARED MID/HIGH
CLOUDS IN AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING ESPCLY SOUTH BEFORE FADING
SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT PER GUIDANCE RH SECTIONS. OTRW STILL EXPECTING
NW FLOW TO KEEP LOW CLOUDS BANKED UP AGAINST THE WESTERN SLOPES
WITH PERHAPS ADDED FREEZING DRIZZLE IN SPOTS BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY
WONT INCLUDE FOR NOW. LOW CLOUDS COULD AGAIN SPILL OUT TO THE BLUE
RIDGE LATE WITH MAINLY PC ELSW FOR HIGH CLOUDS. COMBO OF ADDED
MIXING AND CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP...WITH UNIFORM UPPER
20S/LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FEW MID 20S VALLEYS PENDING
CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

EXPECT THURSDAY TO BEGIN WITH FAIR WEATHER EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...
BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE OVERCAST WEST OF THE RIDGE THANKS TO NW
UPSLOPE FLOW AND A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...WHICH IS SHOWN NICELY BY BUFKIT MODEL
SOUNDINGS. JUST AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ON THE WAY OUT WE
TRANSITION TO SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. MODELS CONTINUE TO JUST
WHEN THIS SHALLOW MOISTURE IS DISSIPATING...MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
SPREAD OVER THE AREA AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
IN ZONAL UPPER FLOW. VARIATIONS ON THIS THEME FOR THURSDAY HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISED BY GUIDANCE FOR THE PAST FEW RUNS. BELIEVE WE WILL LACK
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO GENERATE ANYTHING MORE THAN A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY
FOR THE RIDGES SO WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS AT OR BELOW SLIGHT
CHANCE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. FAIR CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES BY TO OUR NORTH AND
STARTS WORKING ITS WAY DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS A WEAK WEDGE.

OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WE
HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES FROM THE
GULF COAST THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEKEND. OVERALL...THE LOW
AMPLITUDE SPLIT FLOW UPPER PATTERN IS NOT VERY CONDUCIVE TO
SUPPORTING A MAJOR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A TRAILING NORTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS NEVER ABLE TO
CATCH AND PHASE WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE...WHICH PREVENTS
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROF TO GENERATE A *MILLER A*
TYPE COASTAL LOW. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR THE LOW TO SCOOT
BY TO OUR SOUTH AND DELIVER THE BULK OF ITS OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION TO US SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.

PRECIPITATION TYPE IS GOING TO BE A MAJOR CHALLENGE WITH THIS SYSTEM
AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARGINAL OVER THE AREA AND THE LOW WILL NOT
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH.
EXPECT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO BE FOR A
MIX AT THE START SATURDAY MORNING...TO MAINLY RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME
FREEZING RAIN FOR THE PIEDMONT WITH THE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
HOLDING SHALLOW COLD AIR NEAR THE SURFACE...BACK TO MIX SATURDAY
NIGHT AS PRECIPITATION LESSENS. BLUE RIDGE WEST WILL SEE THINGS
START AS SNOW...THEN GO TO A MIX...THEN BACK TO SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THINGS WINDING DOWN. THE BEST CHANCE OF A MOSTLY SNOW EVENT
SEEMS TO BE THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES ON INTO THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS
WHERE A SLUSHY COUPLE OF INCHES IS POSSIBLE. MANY DETAILS HAVE YET
TO EMERGE WITH THIS SYSTEM SO EXPECT PRECIPITATION TYPE AND
POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS TO CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT AND
THINGS COME INTO FOCUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST TUESDAY...

LATEST 00Z ECMWF SHOWS WEAK LOW PRESSURE SLIDING NE ALONG THE N
CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN AXIS OF DEFORMATION PRECIP
INLAND ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ESPCLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER
ADDED QPF LOOKS RATHER LIGHT AND MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AT
THIS POINT WHERE LIKELY MORE LIQUID NATURE TO START THE EVENING.

MAJORITY OF THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP SHOULD BE EXITING TO EAST
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS MOST SEEING THINGS TAPER OFF AS
A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW AS COLDER AIR FINALLY WRAPS IN. HOWEVER
THIS PENDING LATER TIMING AND MODEL TRENDS WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT
AND THE DEGREE OF COVERAGE OF THE PRECIP SATURDAY EVENING.

BY SUNDAY...THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS THAT THE
AREA WILL BE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH ENOUGH COLD AIR
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A STIFF NORTHWEST WIND TRAJECTORY FOR
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WEST TO CONCLUDE THE EVENT.

BY THE TIME WE GET TO SUNDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE LIFTING OUT OF THE REGION...AND
SUB FREEZING AIR WILL HAVE WRAPPED IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM AT THE
LOWER LEVELS. ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION HAS A GREATER CHANCE TO
BE SNOW OR RAIN WITHOUT THE PRESENCE OF A WARM NOSE ALOFT. BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE PREFERRED AREA OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND
NEIGHBORING PARTS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA WILL GRADUALLY ERODE AS
DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE REGION AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
GRADUALLY BACKS WEST TO SOUTHWEST.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE THE REGION
WITH LIGHT WINDS...LIMITED CLOUD COVER AND NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY. THE GFS
IS QUICK TO BRING THE COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKE REGION. THIS
SYSTEM IS KEPT DISTINCT FROM A DISTURBANCE OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS THAT HAS LITTLE OR NO INTERACTION WITH THE GREAT LAKES
TROUGH THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF OUR FORECAST PERIOD. FOLLOWING
THIS SOLUTION YIELD LIMITED COVERAGE OF RAIN OR SNOW REACHING THE
WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY TUESDAY. THE
ECMWF SOLUTION ALSO HAS THE TWO SYSTEMS DISTINCT THROUGH
TUESDAY...BUT FOR A DIFFERENT REASON. THIS SOLUTIONS IS FARTHER WEST
WITH THE COASTAL SYSTEM...AND WRAPS MOISTURE...AND A WARM
NOSE...INTO OUR AREA DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY TUESDAY. THE GREAT
LAKES SYSTEM IS NOT AS PROGRESSIVE...AND HAS THE TIME TO ELONGATE MORE
SOUTH INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. IF THE ECMWF IS ON
TRACK...THE AREA WILL HAVE A GENEROUS COVERAGE OF A WINTRY MIX
MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. OUR
FORECAST AT THIS POINT WILL RESEMBLE MORE THAT OF THE GFS.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE TRICKY. WHILE WE ARE
EXPECTING A GENERAL TREND TOWARDS MILDER TEMPERATURES EACH DAY PAST
TUESDAY...HOW MUCH...AND WHERE ANY SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW
ARE DEPOSITED WILL PLAY A FACTOR IN BOTH THE HIGHS AND THE LOWS. AT
THIS POINT...AM LEANING ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE...WITH SOME
ALLOTMENT TOWARDS EVEN MORE COOLER WHERE...AT LEAST NOW...THE BEST
CHANCE OF SNOW IS EXPECTED. AT THIS POINT...WILL NOT TOUCH THE FOG
POTENTIAL ONCE WE START TO GET INTO THE RETURN FLOW SIDE OF THE
SURFACE HIGH. ALTHOUGH...AS MILDER AIR STARTS ADVECTING ACROSS ANY
REMAINING SNOWPACK...THE DEW POINT OF THAT AIR WILL LIKELY BE MILDER
THAN THE TEMPERATURE OF THE SNOW IT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 555 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

STRONG NW FLOW CONTINUING TO PUSH LOWER CIGS FARTHER EAST EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH LOW END VFR OUT EAST TO KLYH/KDAN AND MVFR AT
KBCB/KROA WITH IFR OR WORSE KBLF/KLWB. THIS TREND LIKELY TO
PREVAIL THROUGH MID OR LATE MORNING BEFORE THINGS SCATTER OUT IN
THE EAST AND CLOUDS RETROGRADE WESTWARD NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE BY
AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE BRIEFLY DECREASES. STILL APPEARS THAT KBCB WILL
BE GOING TO VFR CIGS AFTER 16Z/11 AM...THEN SCATTERING OUT IN THE
AFTERNOON. CIGS TO STAY IFR TO LIFR AT KBLF/KLWB BUT RISE TO MVFR
THIS AFTERNOON. MAY SEE SCATTERED CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON BUT 00Z
NAM/CMC STILL HANGING ONTO THE LOWER CIGS INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
ATTM...WILL LEAVE IT SCATTERED FROM LATE AFTERNOON-06Z THU AND
THEN LOWER CIGS BACK TO AT LEAST MVFR FROM KBCB WEST IF NOT WORSE
AT KBLF/KLWB LATER THU NIGHT. SOME SPOTTY -RA/-SN OR -DZ POSSIBLE
AS WELL AROUND KBLF/KLWB EARLY THIS MORNING BUT NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF VSBY REDUCTIONS OUTSIDE OF DENSE FOG AT KBLF
THIS MORNING.

WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AT TIMES FROM THE WNW ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS ESPCLY THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS POSSIBLE AT
KROA/KBLF AND KBCB. THEN WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH BY LATE
AFTERNOON TODAY WITH ONLY SOME GUSTS LINGERING ALONG THE RIDGES
INTO TONIGHT.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK RELATIVELY BENIGN...THOUGH LOWER MVFR CIGS
WILL LINGER IN THE WEST THU.

THE FRI NIGHT-SAT SYSTEM NOW HAS TRENDED WEAKER BUT WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED AS IT LOOKS TO STILL BRING A PERIOD OF SUB VFR
WINTRY WEATHER ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST SAT.

AVIATION INTERESTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION AS LATER
FORECASTS BECOME AVAILABLE. THIS WILL LIKELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON AIR
TRAVEL OVER THE WEEKEND...FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
CAROLINAS NORTH TO THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...JH/PM
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...DS/JH
AVIATION...DS/JH/KK/WP



000
FXUS61 KRNK 171600
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1100 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT RESULTING IN OVERALL DRIER WEATHER UNDER
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE MOISTURE STARTS TO RETURN AHEAD
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH A
MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE DRIER WEATHER RETURNS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR AT 85H NOW CROSSING THE BLUE RIDGE IN
WAKE OF YESTERDAYS FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOW CLOUDS WITHIN THE COLD
ADVECTION ALSO SPILLING OUT TO THE FOOTHILLS...BUT SHOULD
DISSIPATE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE PER DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND DRYING.
LOW DECK ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE WV HIGHLANDS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST FOR THE ENTIRE DAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN THE WESTERN SLOPES AND THE BLUE RIDGE...CLOUDS THINNING
ACROSS THE NEW RIVER AND GREENBRIER VALLEYS.

MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES TO ACCOUNT FOR
UPSLOPE PRECIP. MODELS SHOW THIS MOISTURE TO BE QUITE SHALLOW
SO IT SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT MOST...MAINLY
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES. DEEP WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS
QUITE BLUSTERY WEST AND BREEZY EAST. RANGE OF HIGH TEMPS FROM
UPPER 30S/AROUND 40 NW TO MID 50S SE LOOKS ON TAP WITH DOWNSLOPE
AIDED WARMING EAST WHERE WILL BE WEAKENING COOL ADVECTION WITH
TIME.

UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS BY TO THE NE OVERNIGHT ALLOWING WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TO GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER FAST BUT
ZONAL CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT LIKELY TO BRING SOME SHEARED MID/HIGH
CLOUDS IN AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING ESPCLY SOUTH BEFORE FADING
SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT PER GUIDANCE RH SECTIONS. OTRW STILL EXPECTING
NW FLOW TO KEEP LOW CLOUDS BANKED UP AGAINST THE WESTERN SLOPES
WITH PERHAPS ADDED FREEZING DRIZZLE IN SPOTS BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY
WONT INCLUDE FOR NOW. LOW CLOUDS COULD AGAIN SPILL OUT TO THE BLUE
RIDGE LATE WITH MAINLY PC ELSW FOR HIGH CLOUDS. COMBO OF ADDED
MIXING AND CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP...WITH UNIFORM UPPER
20S/LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FEW MID 20S VALLEYS PENDING
CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

EXPECT THURSDAY TO BEGIN WITH FAIR WEATHER EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...
BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE OVERCAST WEST OF THE RIDGE THANKS TO NW
UPSLOPE FLOW AND A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...WHICH IS SHOWN NICELY BY BUFKIT MODEL
SOUNDINGS. JUST AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ON THE WAY OUT WE
TRANSITION TO SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. MODELS CONTINUE TO JUST
WHEN THIS SHALLOW MOISTURE IS DISSIPATING...MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
SPREAD OVER THE AREA AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
IN ZONAL UPPER FLOW. VARIATIONS ON THIS THEME FOR THURSDAY HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISED BY GUIDANCE FOR THE PAST FEW RUNS. BELIEVE WE WILL LACK
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO GENERATE ANYTHING MORE THAN A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY
FOR THE RIDGES SO WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS AT OR BELOW SLIGHT
CHANCE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. FAIR CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES BY TO OUR NORTH AND
STARTS WORKING ITS WAY DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS A WEAK WEDGE.

OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WE
HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES FROM THE
GULF COAST THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEKEND. OVERALL...THE LOW
AMPLITUDE SPLIT FLOW UPPER PATTERN IS NOT VERY CONDUCIVE TO
SUPPORTING A MAJOR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A TRAILING NORTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS NEVER ABLE TO
CATCH AND PHASE WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE...WHICH PREVENTS
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROF TO GENERATE A *MILLER A*
TYPE COASTAL LOW. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR THE LOW TO SCOOT
BY TO OUR SOUTH AND DELIVER THE BULK OF ITS OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION TO US SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.

PRECIPITATION TYPE IS GOING TO BE A MAJOR CHALLENGE WITH THIS SYSTEM
AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARGINAL OVER THE AREA AND THE LOW WILL NOT
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH.
EXPECT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO BE FOR A
MIX AT THE START SATURDAY MORNING...TO MAINLY RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME
FREEZING RAIN FOR THE PIEDMONT WITH THE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
HOLDING SHALLOW COLD AIR NEAR THE SURFACE...BACK TO MIX SATURDAY
NIGHT AS PRECIPITATION LESSENS. BLUE RIDGE WEST WILL SEE THINGS
START AS SNOW...THEN GO TO A MIX...THEN BACK TO SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THINGS WINDING DOWN. THE BEST CHANCE OF A MOSTLY SNOW EVENT
SEEMS TO BE THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES ON INTO THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS
WHERE A SLUSHY COUPLE OF INCHES IS POSSIBLE. MANY DETAILS HAVE YET
TO EMERGE WITH THIS SYSTEM SO EXPECT PRECIPITATION TYPE AND
POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS TO CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT AND
THINGS COME INTO FOCUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST TUESDAY...

LATEST 00Z ECMWF SHOWS WEAK LOW PRESSURE SLIDING NE ALONG THE N
CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN AXIS OF DEFORMATION PRECIP
INLAND ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ESPCLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER
ADDED QPF LOOKS RATHER LIGHT AND MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AT
THIS POINT WHERE LIKELY MORE LIQUID NATURE TO START THE EVENING.

MAJORITY OF THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP SHOULD BE EXITING TO EAST
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS MOST SEEING THINGS TAPER OFF AS
A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW AS COLDER AIR FINALLY WRAPS IN. HOWEVER
THIS PENDING LATER TIMING AND MODEL TRENDS WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT
AND THE DEGREE OF COVERAGE OF THE PRECIP SATURDAY EVENING.

BY SUNDAY...THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS THAT THE
AREA WILL BE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH ENOUGH COLD AIR
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A STIFF NORTHWEST WIND TRAJECTORY FOR
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WEST TO CONCLUDE THE EVENT.

BY THE TIME WE GET TO SUNDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE LIFTING OUT OF THE REGION...AND
SUB FREEZING AIR WILL HAVE WRAPPED IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM AT THE
LOWER LEVELS. ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION HAS A GREATER CHANCE TO
BE SNOW OR RAIN WITHOUT THE PRESENCE OF A WARM NOSE ALOFT. BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE PREFERRED AREA OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND
NEIGHBORING PARTS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA WILL GRADUALLY ERODE AS
DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE REGION AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
GRADUALLY BACKS WEST TO SOUTHWEST.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE THE REGION
WITH LIGHT WINDS...LIMITED CLOUD COVER AND NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY. THE GFS
IS QUICK TO BRING THE COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKE REGION. THIS
SYSTEM IS KEPT DISTINCT FROM A DISTURBANCE OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS THAT HAS LITTLE OR NO INTERACTION WITH THE GREAT LAKES
TROUGH THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF OUR FORECAST PERIOD. FOLLOWING
THIS SOLUTION YIELD LIMITED COVERAGE OF RAIN OR SNOW REACHING THE
WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY TUESDAY. THE
ECMWF SOLUTION ALSO HAS THE TWO SYSTEMS DISTINCT THROUGH
TUESDAY...BUT FOR A DIFFERENT REASON. THIS SOLUTIONS IS FARTHER WEST
WITH THE COASTAL SYSTEM...AND WRAPS MOISTURE...AND A WARM
NOSE...INTO OUR AREA DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY TUESDAY. THE GREAT
LAKES SYSTEM IS NOT AS PROGRESSIVE...AND HAS THE TIME TO ELONGATE MORE
SOUTH INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. IF THE ECMWF IS ON
TRACK...THE AREA WILL HAVE A GENEROUS COVERAGE OF A WINTRY MIX
MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. OUR
FORECAST AT THIS POINT WILL RESEMBLE MORE THAT OF THE GFS.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE TRICKY. WHILE WE ARE
EXPECTING A GENERAL TREND TOWARDS MILDER TEMPERATURES EACH DAY PAST
TUESDAY...HOW MUCH...AND WHERE ANY SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW
ARE DEPOSITED WILL PLAY A FACTOR IN BOTH THE HIGHS AND THE LOWS. AT
THIS POINT...AM LEANING ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE...WITH SOME
ALLOTMENT TOWARDS EVEN MORE COOLER WHERE...AT LEAST NOW...THE BEST
CHANCE OF SNOW IS EXPECTED. AT THIS POINT...WILL NOT TOUCH THE FOG
POTENTIAL ONCE WE START TO GET INTO THE RETURN FLOW SIDE OF THE
SURFACE HIGH. ALTHOUGH...AS MILDER AIR STARTS ADVECTING ACROSS ANY
REMAINING SNOWPACK...THE DEW POINT OF THAT AIR WILL LIKELY BE MILDER
THAN THE TEMPERATURE OF THE SNOW IT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 555 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

STRONG NW FLOW CONTINUING TO PUSH LOWER CIGS FARTHER EAST EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH LOW END VFR OUT EAST TO KLYH/KDAN AND MVFR AT
KBCB/KROA WITH IFR OR WORSE KBLF/KLWB. THIS TREND LIKELY TO
PREVAIL THROUGH MID OR LATE MORNING BEFORE THINGS SCATTER OUT IN
THE EAST AND CLOUDS RETROGRADE WESTWARD NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE BY
AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE BRIEFLY DECREASES. STILL APPEARS THAT KBCB WILL
BE GOING TO VFR CIGS AFTER 16Z/11 AM...THEN SCATTERING OUT IN THE
AFTERNOON. CIGS TO STAY IFR TO LIFR AT KBLF/KLWB BUT RISE TO MVFR
THIS AFTERNOON. MAY SEE SCATTERED CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON BUT 00Z
NAM/CMC STILL HANGING ONTO THE LOWER CIGS INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
ATTM...WILL LEAVE IT SCATTERED FROM LATE AFTERNOON-06Z THU AND
THEN LOWER CIGS BACK TO AT LEAST MVFR FROM KBCB WEST IF NOT WORSE
AT KBLF/KLWB LATER THU NIGHT. SOME SPOTTY -RA/-SN OR -DZ POSSIBLE
AS WELL AROUND KBLF/KLWB EARLY THIS MORNING BUT NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF VSBY REDUCTIONS OUTSIDE OF DENSE FOG AT KBLF
THIS MORNING.

WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AT TIMES FROM THE WNW ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS ESPCLY THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS POSSIBLE AT
KROA/KBLF AND KBCB. THEN WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH BY LATE
AFTERNOON TODAY WITH ONLY SOME GUSTS LINGERING ALONG THE RIDGES
INTO TONIGHT.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK RELATIVELY BENIGN...THOUGH LOWER MVFR CIGS
WILL LINGER IN THE WEST THU.

THE FRI NIGHT-SAT SYSTEM NOW HAS TRENDED WEAKER BUT WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED AS IT LOOKS TO STILL BRING A PERIOD OF SUB VFR
WINTRY WEATHER ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST SAT.

AVIATION INTERESTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION AS LATER
FORECASTS BECOME AVAILABLE. THIS WILL LIKELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON AIR
TRAVEL OVER THE WEEKEND...FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
CAROLINAS NORTH TO THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...JH/PM
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...DS/JH
AVIATION...DS/JH/KK/WP



000
FXUS61 KRNK 171600
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1100 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT RESULTING IN OVERALL DRIER WEATHER UNDER
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE MOISTURE STARTS TO RETURN AHEAD
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH A
MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE DRIER WEATHER RETURNS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR AT 85H NOW CROSSING THE BLUE RIDGE IN
WAKE OF YESTERDAYS FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOW CLOUDS WITHIN THE COLD
ADVECTION ALSO SPILLING OUT TO THE FOOTHILLS...BUT SHOULD
DISSIPATE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE PER DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND DRYING.
LOW DECK ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE WV HIGHLANDS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST FOR THE ENTIRE DAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN THE WESTERN SLOPES AND THE BLUE RIDGE...CLOUDS THINNING
ACROSS THE NEW RIVER AND GREENBRIER VALLEYS.

MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES TO ACCOUNT FOR
UPSLOPE PRECIP. MODELS SHOW THIS MOISTURE TO BE QUITE SHALLOW
SO IT SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT MOST...MAINLY
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES. DEEP WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS
QUITE BLUSTERY WEST AND BREEZY EAST. RANGE OF HIGH TEMPS FROM
UPPER 30S/AROUND 40 NW TO MID 50S SE LOOKS ON TAP WITH DOWNSLOPE
AIDED WARMING EAST WHERE WILL BE WEAKENING COOL ADVECTION WITH
TIME.

UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS BY TO THE NE OVERNIGHT ALLOWING WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TO GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER FAST BUT
ZONAL CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT LIKELY TO BRING SOME SHEARED MID/HIGH
CLOUDS IN AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING ESPCLY SOUTH BEFORE FADING
SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT PER GUIDANCE RH SECTIONS. OTRW STILL EXPECTING
NW FLOW TO KEEP LOW CLOUDS BANKED UP AGAINST THE WESTERN SLOPES
WITH PERHAPS ADDED FREEZING DRIZZLE IN SPOTS BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY
WONT INCLUDE FOR NOW. LOW CLOUDS COULD AGAIN SPILL OUT TO THE BLUE
RIDGE LATE WITH MAINLY PC ELSW FOR HIGH CLOUDS. COMBO OF ADDED
MIXING AND CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP...WITH UNIFORM UPPER
20S/LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FEW MID 20S VALLEYS PENDING
CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

EXPECT THURSDAY TO BEGIN WITH FAIR WEATHER EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...
BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE OVERCAST WEST OF THE RIDGE THANKS TO NW
UPSLOPE FLOW AND A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...WHICH IS SHOWN NICELY BY BUFKIT MODEL
SOUNDINGS. JUST AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ON THE WAY OUT WE
TRANSITION TO SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. MODELS CONTINUE TO JUST
WHEN THIS SHALLOW MOISTURE IS DISSIPATING...MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
SPREAD OVER THE AREA AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
IN ZONAL UPPER FLOW. VARIATIONS ON THIS THEME FOR THURSDAY HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISED BY GUIDANCE FOR THE PAST FEW RUNS. BELIEVE WE WILL LACK
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO GENERATE ANYTHING MORE THAN A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY
FOR THE RIDGES SO WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS AT OR BELOW SLIGHT
CHANCE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. FAIR CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES BY TO OUR NORTH AND
STARTS WORKING ITS WAY DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS A WEAK WEDGE.

OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WE
HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES FROM THE
GULF COAST THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEKEND. OVERALL...THE LOW
AMPLITUDE SPLIT FLOW UPPER PATTERN IS NOT VERY CONDUCIVE TO
SUPPORTING A MAJOR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A TRAILING NORTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS NEVER ABLE TO
CATCH AND PHASE WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE...WHICH PREVENTS
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROF TO GENERATE A *MILLER A*
TYPE COASTAL LOW. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR THE LOW TO SCOOT
BY TO OUR SOUTH AND DELIVER THE BULK OF ITS OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION TO US SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.

PRECIPITATION TYPE IS GOING TO BE A MAJOR CHALLENGE WITH THIS SYSTEM
AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARGINAL OVER THE AREA AND THE LOW WILL NOT
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH.
EXPECT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO BE FOR A
MIX AT THE START SATURDAY MORNING...TO MAINLY RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME
FREEZING RAIN FOR THE PIEDMONT WITH THE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
HOLDING SHALLOW COLD AIR NEAR THE SURFACE...BACK TO MIX SATURDAY
NIGHT AS PRECIPITATION LESSENS. BLUE RIDGE WEST WILL SEE THINGS
START AS SNOW...THEN GO TO A MIX...THEN BACK TO SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THINGS WINDING DOWN. THE BEST CHANCE OF A MOSTLY SNOW EVENT
SEEMS TO BE THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES ON INTO THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS
WHERE A SLUSHY COUPLE OF INCHES IS POSSIBLE. MANY DETAILS HAVE YET
TO EMERGE WITH THIS SYSTEM SO EXPECT PRECIPITATION TYPE AND
POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS TO CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT AND
THINGS COME INTO FOCUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST TUESDAY...

LATEST 00Z ECMWF SHOWS WEAK LOW PRESSURE SLIDING NE ALONG THE N
CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN AXIS OF DEFORMATION PRECIP
INLAND ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ESPCLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER
ADDED QPF LOOKS RATHER LIGHT AND MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AT
THIS POINT WHERE LIKELY MORE LIQUID NATURE TO START THE EVENING.

MAJORITY OF THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP SHOULD BE EXITING TO EAST
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS MOST SEEING THINGS TAPER OFF AS
A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW AS COLDER AIR FINALLY WRAPS IN. HOWEVER
THIS PENDING LATER TIMING AND MODEL TRENDS WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT
AND THE DEGREE OF COVERAGE OF THE PRECIP SATURDAY EVENING.

BY SUNDAY...THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS THAT THE
AREA WILL BE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH ENOUGH COLD AIR
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A STIFF NORTHWEST WIND TRAJECTORY FOR
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WEST TO CONCLUDE THE EVENT.

BY THE TIME WE GET TO SUNDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE LIFTING OUT OF THE REGION...AND
SUB FREEZING AIR WILL HAVE WRAPPED IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM AT THE
LOWER LEVELS. ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION HAS A GREATER CHANCE TO
BE SNOW OR RAIN WITHOUT THE PRESENCE OF A WARM NOSE ALOFT. BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE PREFERRED AREA OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND
NEIGHBORING PARTS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA WILL GRADUALLY ERODE AS
DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE REGION AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
GRADUALLY BACKS WEST TO SOUTHWEST.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE THE REGION
WITH LIGHT WINDS...LIMITED CLOUD COVER AND NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY. THE GFS
IS QUICK TO BRING THE COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKE REGION. THIS
SYSTEM IS KEPT DISTINCT FROM A DISTURBANCE OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS THAT HAS LITTLE OR NO INTERACTION WITH THE GREAT LAKES
TROUGH THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF OUR FORECAST PERIOD. FOLLOWING
THIS SOLUTION YIELD LIMITED COVERAGE OF RAIN OR SNOW REACHING THE
WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY TUESDAY. THE
ECMWF SOLUTION ALSO HAS THE TWO SYSTEMS DISTINCT THROUGH
TUESDAY...BUT FOR A DIFFERENT REASON. THIS SOLUTIONS IS FARTHER WEST
WITH THE COASTAL SYSTEM...AND WRAPS MOISTURE...AND A WARM
NOSE...INTO OUR AREA DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY TUESDAY. THE GREAT
LAKES SYSTEM IS NOT AS PROGRESSIVE...AND HAS THE TIME TO ELONGATE MORE
SOUTH INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. IF THE ECMWF IS ON
TRACK...THE AREA WILL HAVE A GENEROUS COVERAGE OF A WINTRY MIX
MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. OUR
FORECAST AT THIS POINT WILL RESEMBLE MORE THAT OF THE GFS.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE TRICKY. WHILE WE ARE
EXPECTING A GENERAL TREND TOWARDS MILDER TEMPERATURES EACH DAY PAST
TUESDAY...HOW MUCH...AND WHERE ANY SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW
ARE DEPOSITED WILL PLAY A FACTOR IN BOTH THE HIGHS AND THE LOWS. AT
THIS POINT...AM LEANING ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE...WITH SOME
ALLOTMENT TOWARDS EVEN MORE COOLER WHERE...AT LEAST NOW...THE BEST
CHANCE OF SNOW IS EXPECTED. AT THIS POINT...WILL NOT TOUCH THE FOG
POTENTIAL ONCE WE START TO GET INTO THE RETURN FLOW SIDE OF THE
SURFACE HIGH. ALTHOUGH...AS MILDER AIR STARTS ADVECTING ACROSS ANY
REMAINING SNOWPACK...THE DEW POINT OF THAT AIR WILL LIKELY BE MILDER
THAN THE TEMPERATURE OF THE SNOW IT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 555 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

STRONG NW FLOW CONTINUING TO PUSH LOWER CIGS FARTHER EAST EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH LOW END VFR OUT EAST TO KLYH/KDAN AND MVFR AT
KBCB/KROA WITH IFR OR WORSE KBLF/KLWB. THIS TREND LIKELY TO
PREVAIL THROUGH MID OR LATE MORNING BEFORE THINGS SCATTER OUT IN
THE EAST AND CLOUDS RETROGRADE WESTWARD NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE BY
AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE BRIEFLY DECREASES. STILL APPEARS THAT KBCB WILL
BE GOING TO VFR CIGS AFTER 16Z/11 AM...THEN SCATTERING OUT IN THE
AFTERNOON. CIGS TO STAY IFR TO LIFR AT KBLF/KLWB BUT RISE TO MVFR
THIS AFTERNOON. MAY SEE SCATTERED CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON BUT 00Z
NAM/CMC STILL HANGING ONTO THE LOWER CIGS INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
ATTM...WILL LEAVE IT SCATTERED FROM LATE AFTERNOON-06Z THU AND
THEN LOWER CIGS BACK TO AT LEAST MVFR FROM KBCB WEST IF NOT WORSE
AT KBLF/KLWB LATER THU NIGHT. SOME SPOTTY -RA/-SN OR -DZ POSSIBLE
AS WELL AROUND KBLF/KLWB EARLY THIS MORNING BUT NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF VSBY REDUCTIONS OUTSIDE OF DENSE FOG AT KBLF
THIS MORNING.

WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AT TIMES FROM THE WNW ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS ESPCLY THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS POSSIBLE AT
KROA/KBLF AND KBCB. THEN WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH BY LATE
AFTERNOON TODAY WITH ONLY SOME GUSTS LINGERING ALONG THE RIDGES
INTO TONIGHT.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK RELATIVELY BENIGN...THOUGH LOWER MVFR CIGS
WILL LINGER IN THE WEST THU.

THE FRI NIGHT-SAT SYSTEM NOW HAS TRENDED WEAKER BUT WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED AS IT LOOKS TO STILL BRING A PERIOD OF SUB VFR
WINTRY WEATHER ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST SAT.

AVIATION INTERESTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION AS LATER
FORECASTS BECOME AVAILABLE. THIS WILL LIKELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON AIR
TRAVEL OVER THE WEEKEND...FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
CAROLINAS NORTH TO THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...JH/PM
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...DS/JH
AVIATION...DS/JH/KK/WP



000
FXUS61 KRNK 171600
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1100 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT RESULTING IN OVERALL DRIER WEATHER UNDER
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE MOISTURE STARTS TO RETURN AHEAD
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH A
MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE DRIER WEATHER RETURNS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR AT 85H NOW CROSSING THE BLUE RIDGE IN
WAKE OF YESTERDAYS FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOW CLOUDS WITHIN THE COLD
ADVECTION ALSO SPILLING OUT TO THE FOOTHILLS...BUT SHOULD
DISSIPATE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE PER DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND DRYING.
LOW DECK ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE WV HIGHLANDS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST FOR THE ENTIRE DAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN THE WESTERN SLOPES AND THE BLUE RIDGE...CLOUDS THINNING
ACROSS THE NEW RIVER AND GREENBRIER VALLEYS.

MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES TO ACCOUNT FOR
UPSLOPE PRECIP. MODELS SHOW THIS MOISTURE TO BE QUITE SHALLOW
SO IT SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT MOST...MAINLY
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES. DEEP WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS
QUITE BLUSTERY WEST AND BREEZY EAST. RANGE OF HIGH TEMPS FROM
UPPER 30S/AROUND 40 NW TO MID 50S SE LOOKS ON TAP WITH DOWNSLOPE
AIDED WARMING EAST WHERE WILL BE WEAKENING COOL ADVECTION WITH
TIME.

UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS BY TO THE NE OVERNIGHT ALLOWING WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TO GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER FAST BUT
ZONAL CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT LIKELY TO BRING SOME SHEARED MID/HIGH
CLOUDS IN AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING ESPCLY SOUTH BEFORE FADING
SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT PER GUIDANCE RH SECTIONS. OTRW STILL EXPECTING
NW FLOW TO KEEP LOW CLOUDS BANKED UP AGAINST THE WESTERN SLOPES
WITH PERHAPS ADDED FREEZING DRIZZLE IN SPOTS BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY
WONT INCLUDE FOR NOW. LOW CLOUDS COULD AGAIN SPILL OUT TO THE BLUE
RIDGE LATE WITH MAINLY PC ELSW FOR HIGH CLOUDS. COMBO OF ADDED
MIXING AND CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP...WITH UNIFORM UPPER
20S/LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FEW MID 20S VALLEYS PENDING
CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

EXPECT THURSDAY TO BEGIN WITH FAIR WEATHER EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...
BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE OVERCAST WEST OF THE RIDGE THANKS TO NW
UPSLOPE FLOW AND A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...WHICH IS SHOWN NICELY BY BUFKIT MODEL
SOUNDINGS. JUST AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ON THE WAY OUT WE
TRANSITION TO SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. MODELS CONTINUE TO JUST
WHEN THIS SHALLOW MOISTURE IS DISSIPATING...MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
SPREAD OVER THE AREA AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
IN ZONAL UPPER FLOW. VARIATIONS ON THIS THEME FOR THURSDAY HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISED BY GUIDANCE FOR THE PAST FEW RUNS. BELIEVE WE WILL LACK
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO GENERATE ANYTHING MORE THAN A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY
FOR THE RIDGES SO WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS AT OR BELOW SLIGHT
CHANCE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. FAIR CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES BY TO OUR NORTH AND
STARTS WORKING ITS WAY DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS A WEAK WEDGE.

OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WE
HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES FROM THE
GULF COAST THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEKEND. OVERALL...THE LOW
AMPLITUDE SPLIT FLOW UPPER PATTERN IS NOT VERY CONDUCIVE TO
SUPPORTING A MAJOR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A TRAILING NORTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS NEVER ABLE TO
CATCH AND PHASE WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE...WHICH PREVENTS
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROF TO GENERATE A *MILLER A*
TYPE COASTAL LOW. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR THE LOW TO SCOOT
BY TO OUR SOUTH AND DELIVER THE BULK OF ITS OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION TO US SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.

PRECIPITATION TYPE IS GOING TO BE A MAJOR CHALLENGE WITH THIS SYSTEM
AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARGINAL OVER THE AREA AND THE LOW WILL NOT
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH.
EXPECT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO BE FOR A
MIX AT THE START SATURDAY MORNING...TO MAINLY RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME
FREEZING RAIN FOR THE PIEDMONT WITH THE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
HOLDING SHALLOW COLD AIR NEAR THE SURFACE...BACK TO MIX SATURDAY
NIGHT AS PRECIPITATION LESSENS. BLUE RIDGE WEST WILL SEE THINGS
START AS SNOW...THEN GO TO A MIX...THEN BACK TO SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THINGS WINDING DOWN. THE BEST CHANCE OF A MOSTLY SNOW EVENT
SEEMS TO BE THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES ON INTO THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS
WHERE A SLUSHY COUPLE OF INCHES IS POSSIBLE. MANY DETAILS HAVE YET
TO EMERGE WITH THIS SYSTEM SO EXPECT PRECIPITATION TYPE AND
POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS TO CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT AND
THINGS COME INTO FOCUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST TUESDAY...

LATEST 00Z ECMWF SHOWS WEAK LOW PRESSURE SLIDING NE ALONG THE N
CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN AXIS OF DEFORMATION PRECIP
INLAND ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ESPCLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER
ADDED QPF LOOKS RATHER LIGHT AND MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AT
THIS POINT WHERE LIKELY MORE LIQUID NATURE TO START THE EVENING.

MAJORITY OF THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP SHOULD BE EXITING TO EAST
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS MOST SEEING THINGS TAPER OFF AS
A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW AS COLDER AIR FINALLY WRAPS IN. HOWEVER
THIS PENDING LATER TIMING AND MODEL TRENDS WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT
AND THE DEGREE OF COVERAGE OF THE PRECIP SATURDAY EVENING.

BY SUNDAY...THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS THAT THE
AREA WILL BE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH ENOUGH COLD AIR
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A STIFF NORTHWEST WIND TRAJECTORY FOR
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WEST TO CONCLUDE THE EVENT.

BY THE TIME WE GET TO SUNDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE LIFTING OUT OF THE REGION...AND
SUB FREEZING AIR WILL HAVE WRAPPED IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM AT THE
LOWER LEVELS. ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION HAS A GREATER CHANCE TO
BE SNOW OR RAIN WITHOUT THE PRESENCE OF A WARM NOSE ALOFT. BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE PREFERRED AREA OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND
NEIGHBORING PARTS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA WILL GRADUALLY ERODE AS
DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE REGION AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
GRADUALLY BACKS WEST TO SOUTHWEST.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE THE REGION
WITH LIGHT WINDS...LIMITED CLOUD COVER AND NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY. THE GFS
IS QUICK TO BRING THE COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKE REGION. THIS
SYSTEM IS KEPT DISTINCT FROM A DISTURBANCE OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS THAT HAS LITTLE OR NO INTERACTION WITH THE GREAT LAKES
TROUGH THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF OUR FORECAST PERIOD. FOLLOWING
THIS SOLUTION YIELD LIMITED COVERAGE OF RAIN OR SNOW REACHING THE
WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY TUESDAY. THE
ECMWF SOLUTION ALSO HAS THE TWO SYSTEMS DISTINCT THROUGH
TUESDAY...BUT FOR A DIFFERENT REASON. THIS SOLUTIONS IS FARTHER WEST
WITH THE COASTAL SYSTEM...AND WRAPS MOISTURE...AND A WARM
NOSE...INTO OUR AREA DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY TUESDAY. THE GREAT
LAKES SYSTEM IS NOT AS PROGRESSIVE...AND HAS THE TIME TO ELONGATE MORE
SOUTH INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. IF THE ECMWF IS ON
TRACK...THE AREA WILL HAVE A GENEROUS COVERAGE OF A WINTRY MIX
MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. OUR
FORECAST AT THIS POINT WILL RESEMBLE MORE THAT OF THE GFS.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE TRICKY. WHILE WE ARE
EXPECTING A GENERAL TREND TOWARDS MILDER TEMPERATURES EACH DAY PAST
TUESDAY...HOW MUCH...AND WHERE ANY SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW
ARE DEPOSITED WILL PLAY A FACTOR IN BOTH THE HIGHS AND THE LOWS. AT
THIS POINT...AM LEANING ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE...WITH SOME
ALLOTMENT TOWARDS EVEN MORE COOLER WHERE...AT LEAST NOW...THE BEST
CHANCE OF SNOW IS EXPECTED. AT THIS POINT...WILL NOT TOUCH THE FOG
POTENTIAL ONCE WE START TO GET INTO THE RETURN FLOW SIDE OF THE
SURFACE HIGH. ALTHOUGH...AS MILDER AIR STARTS ADVECTING ACROSS ANY
REMAINING SNOWPACK...THE DEW POINT OF THAT AIR WILL LIKELY BE MILDER
THAN THE TEMPERATURE OF THE SNOW IT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 555 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

STRONG NW FLOW CONTINUING TO PUSH LOWER CIGS FARTHER EAST EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH LOW END VFR OUT EAST TO KLYH/KDAN AND MVFR AT
KBCB/KROA WITH IFR OR WORSE KBLF/KLWB. THIS TREND LIKELY TO
PREVAIL THROUGH MID OR LATE MORNING BEFORE THINGS SCATTER OUT IN
THE EAST AND CLOUDS RETROGRADE WESTWARD NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE BY
AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE BRIEFLY DECREASES. STILL APPEARS THAT KBCB WILL
BE GOING TO VFR CIGS AFTER 16Z/11 AM...THEN SCATTERING OUT IN THE
AFTERNOON. CIGS TO STAY IFR TO LIFR AT KBLF/KLWB BUT RISE TO MVFR
THIS AFTERNOON. MAY SEE SCATTERED CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON BUT 00Z
NAM/CMC STILL HANGING ONTO THE LOWER CIGS INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
ATTM...WILL LEAVE IT SCATTERED FROM LATE AFTERNOON-06Z THU AND
THEN LOWER CIGS BACK TO AT LEAST MVFR FROM KBCB WEST IF NOT WORSE
AT KBLF/KLWB LATER THU NIGHT. SOME SPOTTY -RA/-SN OR -DZ POSSIBLE
AS WELL AROUND KBLF/KLWB EARLY THIS MORNING BUT NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF VSBY REDUCTIONS OUTSIDE OF DENSE FOG AT KBLF
THIS MORNING.

WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AT TIMES FROM THE WNW ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS ESPCLY THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS POSSIBLE AT
KROA/KBLF AND KBCB. THEN WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH BY LATE
AFTERNOON TODAY WITH ONLY SOME GUSTS LINGERING ALONG THE RIDGES
INTO TONIGHT.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK RELATIVELY BENIGN...THOUGH LOWER MVFR CIGS
WILL LINGER IN THE WEST THU.

THE FRI NIGHT-SAT SYSTEM NOW HAS TRENDED WEAKER BUT WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED AS IT LOOKS TO STILL BRING A PERIOD OF SUB VFR
WINTRY WEATHER ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST SAT.

AVIATION INTERESTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION AS LATER
FORECASTS BECOME AVAILABLE. THIS WILL LIKELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON AIR
TRAVEL OVER THE WEEKEND...FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
CAROLINAS NORTH TO THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...JH/PM
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...DS/JH
AVIATION...DS/JH/KK/WP



000
FXUS61 KRNK 171600
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1100 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT RESULTING IN OVERALL DRIER WEATHER UNDER
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE MOISTURE STARTS TO RETURN AHEAD
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH A
MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE DRIER WEATHER RETURNS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR AT 85H NOW CROSSING THE BLUE RIDGE IN
WAKE OF YESTERDAYS FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOW CLOUDS WITHIN THE COLD
ADVECTION ALSO SPILLING OUT TO THE FOOTHILLS...BUT SHOULD
DISSIPATE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE PER DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND DRYING.
LOW DECK ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE WV HIGHLANDS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST FOR THE ENTIRE DAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN THE WESTERN SLOPES AND THE BLUE RIDGE...CLOUDS THINNING
ACROSS THE NEW RIVER AND GREENBRIER VALLEYS.

MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES TO ACCOUNT FOR
UPSLOPE PRECIP. MODELS SHOW THIS MOISTURE TO BE QUITE SHALLOW
SO IT SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT MOST...MAINLY
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES. DEEP WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS
QUITE BLUSTERY WEST AND BREEZY EAST. RANGE OF HIGH TEMPS FROM
UPPER 30S/AROUND 40 NW TO MID 50S SE LOOKS ON TAP WITH DOWNSLOPE
AIDED WARMING EAST WHERE WILL BE WEAKENING COOL ADVECTION WITH
TIME.

UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS BY TO THE NE OVERNIGHT ALLOWING WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TO GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER FAST BUT
ZONAL CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT LIKELY TO BRING SOME SHEARED MID/HIGH
CLOUDS IN AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING ESPCLY SOUTH BEFORE FADING
SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT PER GUIDANCE RH SECTIONS. OTRW STILL EXPECTING
NW FLOW TO KEEP LOW CLOUDS BANKED UP AGAINST THE WESTERN SLOPES
WITH PERHAPS ADDED FREEZING DRIZZLE IN SPOTS BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY
WONT INCLUDE FOR NOW. LOW CLOUDS COULD AGAIN SPILL OUT TO THE BLUE
RIDGE LATE WITH MAINLY PC ELSW FOR HIGH CLOUDS. COMBO OF ADDED
MIXING AND CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP...WITH UNIFORM UPPER
20S/LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FEW MID 20S VALLEYS PENDING
CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

EXPECT THURSDAY TO BEGIN WITH FAIR WEATHER EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...
BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE OVERCAST WEST OF THE RIDGE THANKS TO NW
UPSLOPE FLOW AND A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...WHICH IS SHOWN NICELY BY BUFKIT MODEL
SOUNDINGS. JUST AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ON THE WAY OUT WE
TRANSITION TO SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. MODELS CONTINUE TO JUST
WHEN THIS SHALLOW MOISTURE IS DISSIPATING...MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
SPREAD OVER THE AREA AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
IN ZONAL UPPER FLOW. VARIATIONS ON THIS THEME FOR THURSDAY HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISED BY GUIDANCE FOR THE PAST FEW RUNS. BELIEVE WE WILL LACK
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO GENERATE ANYTHING MORE THAN A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY
FOR THE RIDGES SO WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS AT OR BELOW SLIGHT
CHANCE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. FAIR CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES BY TO OUR NORTH AND
STARTS WORKING ITS WAY DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS A WEAK WEDGE.

OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WE
HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES FROM THE
GULF COAST THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEKEND. OVERALL...THE LOW
AMPLITUDE SPLIT FLOW UPPER PATTERN IS NOT VERY CONDUCIVE TO
SUPPORTING A MAJOR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A TRAILING NORTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS NEVER ABLE TO
CATCH AND PHASE WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE...WHICH PREVENTS
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROF TO GENERATE A *MILLER A*
TYPE COASTAL LOW. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR THE LOW TO SCOOT
BY TO OUR SOUTH AND DELIVER THE BULK OF ITS OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION TO US SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.

PRECIPITATION TYPE IS GOING TO BE A MAJOR CHALLENGE WITH THIS SYSTEM
AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARGINAL OVER THE AREA AND THE LOW WILL NOT
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH.
EXPECT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO BE FOR A
MIX AT THE START SATURDAY MORNING...TO MAINLY RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME
FREEZING RAIN FOR THE PIEDMONT WITH THE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
HOLDING SHALLOW COLD AIR NEAR THE SURFACE...BACK TO MIX SATURDAY
NIGHT AS PRECIPITATION LESSENS. BLUE RIDGE WEST WILL SEE THINGS
START AS SNOW...THEN GO TO A MIX...THEN BACK TO SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THINGS WINDING DOWN. THE BEST CHANCE OF A MOSTLY SNOW EVENT
SEEMS TO BE THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES ON INTO THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS
WHERE A SLUSHY COUPLE OF INCHES IS POSSIBLE. MANY DETAILS HAVE YET
TO EMERGE WITH THIS SYSTEM SO EXPECT PRECIPITATION TYPE AND
POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS TO CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT AND
THINGS COME INTO FOCUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST TUESDAY...

LATEST 00Z ECMWF SHOWS WEAK LOW PRESSURE SLIDING NE ALONG THE N
CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN AXIS OF DEFORMATION PRECIP
INLAND ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ESPCLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER
ADDED QPF LOOKS RATHER LIGHT AND MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AT
THIS POINT WHERE LIKELY MORE LIQUID NATURE TO START THE EVENING.

MAJORITY OF THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP SHOULD BE EXITING TO EAST
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS MOST SEEING THINGS TAPER OFF AS
A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW AS COLDER AIR FINALLY WRAPS IN. HOWEVER
THIS PENDING LATER TIMING AND MODEL TRENDS WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT
AND THE DEGREE OF COVERAGE OF THE PRECIP SATURDAY EVENING.

BY SUNDAY...THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS THAT THE
AREA WILL BE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH ENOUGH COLD AIR
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A STIFF NORTHWEST WIND TRAJECTORY FOR
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WEST TO CONCLUDE THE EVENT.

BY THE TIME WE GET TO SUNDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE LIFTING OUT OF THE REGION...AND
SUB FREEZING AIR WILL HAVE WRAPPED IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM AT THE
LOWER LEVELS. ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION HAS A GREATER CHANCE TO
BE SNOW OR RAIN WITHOUT THE PRESENCE OF A WARM NOSE ALOFT. BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE PREFERRED AREA OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND
NEIGHBORING PARTS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA WILL GRADUALLY ERODE AS
DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE REGION AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
GRADUALLY BACKS WEST TO SOUTHWEST.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE THE REGION
WITH LIGHT WINDS...LIMITED CLOUD COVER AND NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY. THE GFS
IS QUICK TO BRING THE COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKE REGION. THIS
SYSTEM IS KEPT DISTINCT FROM A DISTURBANCE OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS THAT HAS LITTLE OR NO INTERACTION WITH THE GREAT LAKES
TROUGH THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF OUR FORECAST PERIOD. FOLLOWING
THIS SOLUTION YIELD LIMITED COVERAGE OF RAIN OR SNOW REACHING THE
WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY TUESDAY. THE
ECMWF SOLUTION ALSO HAS THE TWO SYSTEMS DISTINCT THROUGH
TUESDAY...BUT FOR A DIFFERENT REASON. THIS SOLUTIONS IS FARTHER WEST
WITH THE COASTAL SYSTEM...AND WRAPS MOISTURE...AND A WARM
NOSE...INTO OUR AREA DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY TUESDAY. THE GREAT
LAKES SYSTEM IS NOT AS PROGRESSIVE...AND HAS THE TIME TO ELONGATE MORE
SOUTH INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. IF THE ECMWF IS ON
TRACK...THE AREA WILL HAVE A GENEROUS COVERAGE OF A WINTRY MIX
MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. OUR
FORECAST AT THIS POINT WILL RESEMBLE MORE THAT OF THE GFS.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE TRICKY. WHILE WE ARE
EXPECTING A GENERAL TREND TOWARDS MILDER TEMPERATURES EACH DAY PAST
TUESDAY...HOW MUCH...AND WHERE ANY SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW
ARE DEPOSITED WILL PLAY A FACTOR IN BOTH THE HIGHS AND THE LOWS. AT
THIS POINT...AM LEANING ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE...WITH SOME
ALLOTMENT TOWARDS EVEN MORE COOLER WHERE...AT LEAST NOW...THE BEST
CHANCE OF SNOW IS EXPECTED. AT THIS POINT...WILL NOT TOUCH THE FOG
POTENTIAL ONCE WE START TO GET INTO THE RETURN FLOW SIDE OF THE
SURFACE HIGH. ALTHOUGH...AS MILDER AIR STARTS ADVECTING ACROSS ANY
REMAINING SNOWPACK...THE DEW POINT OF THAT AIR WILL LIKELY BE MILDER
THAN THE TEMPERATURE OF THE SNOW IT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 555 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

STRONG NW FLOW CONTINUING TO PUSH LOWER CIGS FARTHER EAST EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH LOW END VFR OUT EAST TO KLYH/KDAN AND MVFR AT
KBCB/KROA WITH IFR OR WORSE KBLF/KLWB. THIS TREND LIKELY TO
PREVAIL THROUGH MID OR LATE MORNING BEFORE THINGS SCATTER OUT IN
THE EAST AND CLOUDS RETROGRADE WESTWARD NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE BY
AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE BRIEFLY DECREASES. STILL APPEARS THAT KBCB WILL
BE GOING TO VFR CIGS AFTER 16Z/11 AM...THEN SCATTERING OUT IN THE
AFTERNOON. CIGS TO STAY IFR TO LIFR AT KBLF/KLWB BUT RISE TO MVFR
THIS AFTERNOON. MAY SEE SCATTERED CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON BUT 00Z
NAM/CMC STILL HANGING ONTO THE LOWER CIGS INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
ATTM...WILL LEAVE IT SCATTERED FROM LATE AFTERNOON-06Z THU AND
THEN LOWER CIGS BACK TO AT LEAST MVFR FROM KBCB WEST IF NOT WORSE
AT KBLF/KLWB LATER THU NIGHT. SOME SPOTTY -RA/-SN OR -DZ POSSIBLE
AS WELL AROUND KBLF/KLWB EARLY THIS MORNING BUT NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF VSBY REDUCTIONS OUTSIDE OF DENSE FOG AT KBLF
THIS MORNING.

WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AT TIMES FROM THE WNW ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS ESPCLY THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS POSSIBLE AT
KROA/KBLF AND KBCB. THEN WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH BY LATE
AFTERNOON TODAY WITH ONLY SOME GUSTS LINGERING ALONG THE RIDGES
INTO TONIGHT.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK RELATIVELY BENIGN...THOUGH LOWER MVFR CIGS
WILL LINGER IN THE WEST THU.

THE FRI NIGHT-SAT SYSTEM NOW HAS TRENDED WEAKER BUT WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED AS IT LOOKS TO STILL BRING A PERIOD OF SUB VFR
WINTRY WEATHER ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST SAT.

AVIATION INTERESTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION AS LATER
FORECASTS BECOME AVAILABLE. THIS WILL LIKELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON AIR
TRAVEL OVER THE WEEKEND...FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
CAROLINAS NORTH TO THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...JH/PM
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...DS/JH
AVIATION...DS/JH/KK/WP



000
FXUS61 KRNK 171600
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1100 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT RESULTING IN OVERALL DRIER WEATHER UNDER
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE MOISTURE STARTS TO RETURN AHEAD
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH A
MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE DRIER WEATHER RETURNS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR AT 85H NOW CROSSING THE BLUE RIDGE IN
WAKE OF YESTERDAYS FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOW CLOUDS WITHIN THE COLD
ADVECTION ALSO SPILLING OUT TO THE FOOTHILLS...BUT SHOULD
DISSIPATE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE PER DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND DRYING.
LOW DECK ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE WV HIGHLANDS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST FOR THE ENTIRE DAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN THE WESTERN SLOPES AND THE BLUE RIDGE...CLOUDS THINNING
ACROSS THE NEW RIVER AND GREENBRIER VALLEYS.

MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES TO ACCOUNT FOR
UPSLOPE PRECIP. MODELS SHOW THIS MOISTURE TO BE QUITE SHALLOW
SO IT SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT MOST...MAINLY
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES. DEEP WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS
QUITE BLUSTERY WEST AND BREEZY EAST. RANGE OF HIGH TEMPS FROM
UPPER 30S/AROUND 40 NW TO MID 50S SE LOOKS ON TAP WITH DOWNSLOPE
AIDED WARMING EAST WHERE WILL BE WEAKENING COOL ADVECTION WITH
TIME.

UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS BY TO THE NE OVERNIGHT ALLOWING WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TO GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER FAST BUT
ZONAL CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT LIKELY TO BRING SOME SHEARED MID/HIGH
CLOUDS IN AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING ESPCLY SOUTH BEFORE FADING
SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT PER GUIDANCE RH SECTIONS. OTRW STILL EXPECTING
NW FLOW TO KEEP LOW CLOUDS BANKED UP AGAINST THE WESTERN SLOPES
WITH PERHAPS ADDED FREEZING DRIZZLE IN SPOTS BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY
WONT INCLUDE FOR NOW. LOW CLOUDS COULD AGAIN SPILL OUT TO THE BLUE
RIDGE LATE WITH MAINLY PC ELSW FOR HIGH CLOUDS. COMBO OF ADDED
MIXING AND CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP...WITH UNIFORM UPPER
20S/LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FEW MID 20S VALLEYS PENDING
CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

EXPECT THURSDAY TO BEGIN WITH FAIR WEATHER EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...
BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE OVERCAST WEST OF THE RIDGE THANKS TO NW
UPSLOPE FLOW AND A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...WHICH IS SHOWN NICELY BY BUFKIT MODEL
SOUNDINGS. JUST AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ON THE WAY OUT WE
TRANSITION TO SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. MODELS CONTINUE TO JUST
WHEN THIS SHALLOW MOISTURE IS DISSIPATING...MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
SPREAD OVER THE AREA AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
IN ZONAL UPPER FLOW. VARIATIONS ON THIS THEME FOR THURSDAY HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISED BY GUIDANCE FOR THE PAST FEW RUNS. BELIEVE WE WILL LACK
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO GENERATE ANYTHING MORE THAN A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY
FOR THE RIDGES SO WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS AT OR BELOW SLIGHT
CHANCE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. FAIR CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES BY TO OUR NORTH AND
STARTS WORKING ITS WAY DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS A WEAK WEDGE.

OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WE
HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES FROM THE
GULF COAST THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEKEND. OVERALL...THE LOW
AMPLITUDE SPLIT FLOW UPPER PATTERN IS NOT VERY CONDUCIVE TO
SUPPORTING A MAJOR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A TRAILING NORTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS NEVER ABLE TO
CATCH AND PHASE WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE...WHICH PREVENTS
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROF TO GENERATE A *MILLER A*
TYPE COASTAL LOW. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR THE LOW TO SCOOT
BY TO OUR SOUTH AND DELIVER THE BULK OF ITS OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION TO US SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.

PRECIPITATION TYPE IS GOING TO BE A MAJOR CHALLENGE WITH THIS SYSTEM
AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARGINAL OVER THE AREA AND THE LOW WILL NOT
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH.
EXPECT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO BE FOR A
MIX AT THE START SATURDAY MORNING...TO MAINLY RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME
FREEZING RAIN FOR THE PIEDMONT WITH THE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
HOLDING SHALLOW COLD AIR NEAR THE SURFACE...BACK TO MIX SATURDAY
NIGHT AS PRECIPITATION LESSENS. BLUE RIDGE WEST WILL SEE THINGS
START AS SNOW...THEN GO TO A MIX...THEN BACK TO SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THINGS WINDING DOWN. THE BEST CHANCE OF A MOSTLY SNOW EVENT
SEEMS TO BE THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES ON INTO THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS
WHERE A SLUSHY COUPLE OF INCHES IS POSSIBLE. MANY DETAILS HAVE YET
TO EMERGE WITH THIS SYSTEM SO EXPECT PRECIPITATION TYPE AND
POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS TO CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT AND
THINGS COME INTO FOCUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST TUESDAY...

LATEST 00Z ECMWF SHOWS WEAK LOW PRESSURE SLIDING NE ALONG THE N
CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN AXIS OF DEFORMATION PRECIP
INLAND ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ESPCLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER
ADDED QPF LOOKS RATHER LIGHT AND MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AT
THIS POINT WHERE LIKELY MORE LIQUID NATURE TO START THE EVENING.

MAJORITY OF THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP SHOULD BE EXITING TO EAST
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS MOST SEEING THINGS TAPER OFF AS
A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW AS COLDER AIR FINALLY WRAPS IN. HOWEVER
THIS PENDING LATER TIMING AND MODEL TRENDS WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT
AND THE DEGREE OF COVERAGE OF THE PRECIP SATURDAY EVENING.

BY SUNDAY...THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS THAT THE
AREA WILL BE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH ENOUGH COLD AIR
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A STIFF NORTHWEST WIND TRAJECTORY FOR
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WEST TO CONCLUDE THE EVENT.

BY THE TIME WE GET TO SUNDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE LIFTING OUT OF THE REGION...AND
SUB FREEZING AIR WILL HAVE WRAPPED IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM AT THE
LOWER LEVELS. ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION HAS A GREATER CHANCE TO
BE SNOW OR RAIN WITHOUT THE PRESENCE OF A WARM NOSE ALOFT. BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE PREFERRED AREA OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND
NEIGHBORING PARTS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA WILL GRADUALLY ERODE AS
DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE REGION AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
GRADUALLY BACKS WEST TO SOUTHWEST.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE THE REGION
WITH LIGHT WINDS...LIMITED CLOUD COVER AND NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY. THE GFS
IS QUICK TO BRING THE COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKE REGION. THIS
SYSTEM IS KEPT DISTINCT FROM A DISTURBANCE OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS THAT HAS LITTLE OR NO INTERACTION WITH THE GREAT LAKES
TROUGH THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF OUR FORECAST PERIOD. FOLLOWING
THIS SOLUTION YIELD LIMITED COVERAGE OF RAIN OR SNOW REACHING THE
WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY TUESDAY. THE
ECMWF SOLUTION ALSO HAS THE TWO SYSTEMS DISTINCT THROUGH
TUESDAY...BUT FOR A DIFFERENT REASON. THIS SOLUTIONS IS FARTHER WEST
WITH THE COASTAL SYSTEM...AND WRAPS MOISTURE...AND A WARM
NOSE...INTO OUR AREA DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY TUESDAY. THE GREAT
LAKES SYSTEM IS NOT AS PROGRESSIVE...AND HAS THE TIME TO ELONGATE MORE
SOUTH INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. IF THE ECMWF IS ON
TRACK...THE AREA WILL HAVE A GENEROUS COVERAGE OF A WINTRY MIX
MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. OUR
FORECAST AT THIS POINT WILL RESEMBLE MORE THAT OF THE GFS.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE TRICKY. WHILE WE ARE
EXPECTING A GENERAL TREND TOWARDS MILDER TEMPERATURES EACH DAY PAST
TUESDAY...HOW MUCH...AND WHERE ANY SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW
ARE DEPOSITED WILL PLAY A FACTOR IN BOTH THE HIGHS AND THE LOWS. AT
THIS POINT...AM LEANING ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE...WITH SOME
ALLOTMENT TOWARDS EVEN MORE COOLER WHERE...AT LEAST NOW...THE BEST
CHANCE OF SNOW IS EXPECTED. AT THIS POINT...WILL NOT TOUCH THE FOG
POTENTIAL ONCE WE START TO GET INTO THE RETURN FLOW SIDE OF THE
SURFACE HIGH. ALTHOUGH...AS MILDER AIR STARTS ADVECTING ACROSS ANY
REMAINING SNOWPACK...THE DEW POINT OF THAT AIR WILL LIKELY BE MILDER
THAN THE TEMPERATURE OF THE SNOW IT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 555 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

STRONG NW FLOW CONTINUING TO PUSH LOWER CIGS FARTHER EAST EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH LOW END VFR OUT EAST TO KLYH/KDAN AND MVFR AT
KBCB/KROA WITH IFR OR WORSE KBLF/KLWB. THIS TREND LIKELY TO
PREVAIL THROUGH MID OR LATE MORNING BEFORE THINGS SCATTER OUT IN
THE EAST AND CLOUDS RETROGRADE WESTWARD NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE BY
AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE BRIEFLY DECREASES. STILL APPEARS THAT KBCB WILL
BE GOING TO VFR CIGS AFTER 16Z/11 AM...THEN SCATTERING OUT IN THE
AFTERNOON. CIGS TO STAY IFR TO LIFR AT KBLF/KLWB BUT RISE TO MVFR
THIS AFTERNOON. MAY SEE SCATTERED CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON BUT 00Z
NAM/CMC STILL HANGING ONTO THE LOWER CIGS INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
ATTM...WILL LEAVE IT SCATTERED FROM LATE AFTERNOON-06Z THU AND
THEN LOWER CIGS BACK TO AT LEAST MVFR FROM KBCB WEST IF NOT WORSE
AT KBLF/KLWB LATER THU NIGHT. SOME SPOTTY -RA/-SN OR -DZ POSSIBLE
AS WELL AROUND KBLF/KLWB EARLY THIS MORNING BUT NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF VSBY REDUCTIONS OUTSIDE OF DENSE FOG AT KBLF
THIS MORNING.

WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AT TIMES FROM THE WNW ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS ESPCLY THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS POSSIBLE AT
KROA/KBLF AND KBCB. THEN WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH BY LATE
AFTERNOON TODAY WITH ONLY SOME GUSTS LINGERING ALONG THE RIDGES
INTO TONIGHT.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK RELATIVELY BENIGN...THOUGH LOWER MVFR CIGS
WILL LINGER IN THE WEST THU.

THE FRI NIGHT-SAT SYSTEM NOW HAS TRENDED WEAKER BUT WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED AS IT LOOKS TO STILL BRING A PERIOD OF SUB VFR
WINTRY WEATHER ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST SAT.

AVIATION INTERESTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION AS LATER
FORECASTS BECOME AVAILABLE. THIS WILL LIKELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON AIR
TRAVEL OVER THE WEEKEND...FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
CAROLINAS NORTH TO THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...JH/PM
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...DS/JH
AVIATION...DS/JH/KK/WP



000
FXUS61 KRNK 171600
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1100 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT RESULTING IN OVERALL DRIER WEATHER UNDER
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE MOISTURE STARTS TO RETURN AHEAD
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH A
MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE DRIER WEATHER RETURNS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR AT 85H NOW CROSSING THE BLUE RIDGE IN
WAKE OF YESTERDAYS FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOW CLOUDS WITHIN THE COLD
ADVECTION ALSO SPILLING OUT TO THE FOOTHILLS...BUT SHOULD
DISSIPATE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE PER DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND DRYING.
LOW DECK ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE WV HIGHLANDS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST FOR THE ENTIRE DAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN THE WESTERN SLOPES AND THE BLUE RIDGE...CLOUDS THINNING
ACROSS THE NEW RIVER AND GREENBRIER VALLEYS.

MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES TO ACCOUNT FOR
UPSLOPE PRECIP. MODELS SHOW THIS MOISTURE TO BE QUITE SHALLOW
SO IT SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT MOST...MAINLY
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES. DEEP WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS
QUITE BLUSTERY WEST AND BREEZY EAST. RANGE OF HIGH TEMPS FROM
UPPER 30S/AROUND 40 NW TO MID 50S SE LOOKS ON TAP WITH DOWNSLOPE
AIDED WARMING EAST WHERE WILL BE WEAKENING COOL ADVECTION WITH
TIME.

UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS BY TO THE NE OVERNIGHT ALLOWING WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TO GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER FAST BUT
ZONAL CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT LIKELY TO BRING SOME SHEARED MID/HIGH
CLOUDS IN AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING ESPCLY SOUTH BEFORE FADING
SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT PER GUIDANCE RH SECTIONS. OTRW STILL EXPECTING
NW FLOW TO KEEP LOW CLOUDS BANKED UP AGAINST THE WESTERN SLOPES
WITH PERHAPS ADDED FREEZING DRIZZLE IN SPOTS BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY
WONT INCLUDE FOR NOW. LOW CLOUDS COULD AGAIN SPILL OUT TO THE BLUE
RIDGE LATE WITH MAINLY PC ELSW FOR HIGH CLOUDS. COMBO OF ADDED
MIXING AND CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP...WITH UNIFORM UPPER
20S/LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FEW MID 20S VALLEYS PENDING
CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

EXPECT THURSDAY TO BEGIN WITH FAIR WEATHER EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...
BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE OVERCAST WEST OF THE RIDGE THANKS TO NW
UPSLOPE FLOW AND A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...WHICH IS SHOWN NICELY BY BUFKIT MODEL
SOUNDINGS. JUST AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ON THE WAY OUT WE
TRANSITION TO SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. MODELS CONTINUE TO JUST
WHEN THIS SHALLOW MOISTURE IS DISSIPATING...MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
SPREAD OVER THE AREA AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
IN ZONAL UPPER FLOW. VARIATIONS ON THIS THEME FOR THURSDAY HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISED BY GUIDANCE FOR THE PAST FEW RUNS. BELIEVE WE WILL LACK
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO GENERATE ANYTHING MORE THAN A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY
FOR THE RIDGES SO WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS AT OR BELOW SLIGHT
CHANCE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. FAIR CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES BY TO OUR NORTH AND
STARTS WORKING ITS WAY DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS A WEAK WEDGE.

OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WE
HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES FROM THE
GULF COAST THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEKEND. OVERALL...THE LOW
AMPLITUDE SPLIT FLOW UPPER PATTERN IS NOT VERY CONDUCIVE TO
SUPPORTING A MAJOR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A TRAILING NORTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS NEVER ABLE TO
CATCH AND PHASE WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE...WHICH PREVENTS
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROF TO GENERATE A *MILLER A*
TYPE COASTAL LOW. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR THE LOW TO SCOOT
BY TO OUR SOUTH AND DELIVER THE BULK OF ITS OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION TO US SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.

PRECIPITATION TYPE IS GOING TO BE A MAJOR CHALLENGE WITH THIS SYSTEM
AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARGINAL OVER THE AREA AND THE LOW WILL NOT
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH.
EXPECT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO BE FOR A
MIX AT THE START SATURDAY MORNING...TO MAINLY RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME
FREEZING RAIN FOR THE PIEDMONT WITH THE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
HOLDING SHALLOW COLD AIR NEAR THE SURFACE...BACK TO MIX SATURDAY
NIGHT AS PRECIPITATION LESSENS. BLUE RIDGE WEST WILL SEE THINGS
START AS SNOW...THEN GO TO A MIX...THEN BACK TO SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THINGS WINDING DOWN. THE BEST CHANCE OF A MOSTLY SNOW EVENT
SEEMS TO BE THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES ON INTO THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS
WHERE A SLUSHY COUPLE OF INCHES IS POSSIBLE. MANY DETAILS HAVE YET
TO EMERGE WITH THIS SYSTEM SO EXPECT PRECIPITATION TYPE AND
POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS TO CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT AND
THINGS COME INTO FOCUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST TUESDAY...

LATEST 00Z ECMWF SHOWS WEAK LOW PRESSURE SLIDING NE ALONG THE N
CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN AXIS OF DEFORMATION PRECIP
INLAND ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ESPCLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER
ADDED QPF LOOKS RATHER LIGHT AND MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AT
THIS POINT WHERE LIKELY MORE LIQUID NATURE TO START THE EVENING.

MAJORITY OF THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP SHOULD BE EXITING TO EAST
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS MOST SEEING THINGS TAPER OFF AS
A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW AS COLDER AIR FINALLY WRAPS IN. HOWEVER
THIS PENDING LATER TIMING AND MODEL TRENDS WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT
AND THE DEGREE OF COVERAGE OF THE PRECIP SATURDAY EVENING.

BY SUNDAY...THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS THAT THE
AREA WILL BE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH ENOUGH COLD AIR
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A STIFF NORTHWEST WIND TRAJECTORY FOR
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WEST TO CONCLUDE THE EVENT.

BY THE TIME WE GET TO SUNDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE LIFTING OUT OF THE REGION...AND
SUB FREEZING AIR WILL HAVE WRAPPED IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM AT THE
LOWER LEVELS. ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION HAS A GREATER CHANCE TO
BE SNOW OR RAIN WITHOUT THE PRESENCE OF A WARM NOSE ALOFT. BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE PREFERRED AREA OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND
NEIGHBORING PARTS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA WILL GRADUALLY ERODE AS
DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE REGION AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
GRADUALLY BACKS WEST TO SOUTHWEST.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE THE REGION
WITH LIGHT WINDS...LIMITED CLOUD COVER AND NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY. THE GFS
IS QUICK TO BRING THE COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKE REGION. THIS
SYSTEM IS KEPT DISTINCT FROM A DISTURBANCE OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS THAT HAS LITTLE OR NO INTERACTION WITH THE GREAT LAKES
TROUGH THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF OUR FORECAST PERIOD. FOLLOWING
THIS SOLUTION YIELD LIMITED COVERAGE OF RAIN OR SNOW REACHING THE
WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY TUESDAY. THE
ECMWF SOLUTION ALSO HAS THE TWO SYSTEMS DISTINCT THROUGH
TUESDAY...BUT FOR A DIFFERENT REASON. THIS SOLUTIONS IS FARTHER WEST
WITH THE COASTAL SYSTEM...AND WRAPS MOISTURE...AND A WARM
NOSE...INTO OUR AREA DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY TUESDAY. THE GREAT
LAKES SYSTEM IS NOT AS PROGRESSIVE...AND HAS THE TIME TO ELONGATE MORE
SOUTH INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. IF THE ECMWF IS ON
TRACK...THE AREA WILL HAVE A GENEROUS COVERAGE OF A WINTRY MIX
MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. OUR
FORECAST AT THIS POINT WILL RESEMBLE MORE THAT OF THE GFS.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE TRICKY. WHILE WE ARE
EXPECTING A GENERAL TREND TOWARDS MILDER TEMPERATURES EACH DAY PAST
TUESDAY...HOW MUCH...AND WHERE ANY SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW
ARE DEPOSITED WILL PLAY A FACTOR IN BOTH THE HIGHS AND THE LOWS. AT
THIS POINT...AM LEANING ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE...WITH SOME
ALLOTMENT TOWARDS EVEN MORE COOLER WHERE...AT LEAST NOW...THE BEST
CHANCE OF SNOW IS EXPECTED. AT THIS POINT...WILL NOT TOUCH THE FOG
POTENTIAL ONCE WE START TO GET INTO THE RETURN FLOW SIDE OF THE
SURFACE HIGH. ALTHOUGH...AS MILDER AIR STARTS ADVECTING ACROSS ANY
REMAINING SNOWPACK...THE DEW POINT OF THAT AIR WILL LIKELY BE MILDER
THAN THE TEMPERATURE OF THE SNOW IT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 555 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

STRONG NW FLOW CONTINUING TO PUSH LOWER CIGS FARTHER EAST EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH LOW END VFR OUT EAST TO KLYH/KDAN AND MVFR AT
KBCB/KROA WITH IFR OR WORSE KBLF/KLWB. THIS TREND LIKELY TO
PREVAIL THROUGH MID OR LATE MORNING BEFORE THINGS SCATTER OUT IN
THE EAST AND CLOUDS RETROGRADE WESTWARD NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE BY
AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE BRIEFLY DECREASES. STILL APPEARS THAT KBCB WILL
BE GOING TO VFR CIGS AFTER 16Z/11 AM...THEN SCATTERING OUT IN THE
AFTERNOON. CIGS TO STAY IFR TO LIFR AT KBLF/KLWB BUT RISE TO MVFR
THIS AFTERNOON. MAY SEE SCATTERED CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON BUT 00Z
NAM/CMC STILL HANGING ONTO THE LOWER CIGS INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
ATTM...WILL LEAVE IT SCATTERED FROM LATE AFTERNOON-06Z THU AND
THEN LOWER CIGS BACK TO AT LEAST MVFR FROM KBCB WEST IF NOT WORSE
AT KBLF/KLWB LATER THU NIGHT. SOME SPOTTY -RA/-SN OR -DZ POSSIBLE
AS WELL AROUND KBLF/KLWB EARLY THIS MORNING BUT NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF VSBY REDUCTIONS OUTSIDE OF DENSE FOG AT KBLF
THIS MORNING.

WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AT TIMES FROM THE WNW ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS ESPCLY THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS POSSIBLE AT
KROA/KBLF AND KBCB. THEN WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH BY LATE
AFTERNOON TODAY WITH ONLY SOME GUSTS LINGERING ALONG THE RIDGES
INTO TONIGHT.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK RELATIVELY BENIGN...THOUGH LOWER MVFR CIGS
WILL LINGER IN THE WEST THU.

THE FRI NIGHT-SAT SYSTEM NOW HAS TRENDED WEAKER BUT WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED AS IT LOOKS TO STILL BRING A PERIOD OF SUB VFR
WINTRY WEATHER ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST SAT.

AVIATION INTERESTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION AS LATER
FORECASTS BECOME AVAILABLE. THIS WILL LIKELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON AIR
TRAVEL OVER THE WEEKEND...FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
CAROLINAS NORTH TO THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...JH/PM
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...DS/JH
AVIATION...DS/JH/KK/WP



000
FXUS61 KRNK 171600
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1100 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT RESULTING IN OVERALL DRIER WEATHER UNDER
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE MOISTURE STARTS TO RETURN AHEAD
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH A
MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE DRIER WEATHER RETURNS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR AT 85H NOW CROSSING THE BLUE RIDGE IN
WAKE OF YESTERDAYS FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOW CLOUDS WITHIN THE COLD
ADVECTION ALSO SPILLING OUT TO THE FOOTHILLS...BUT SHOULD
DISSIPATE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE PER DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND DRYING.
LOW DECK ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE WV HIGHLANDS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST FOR THE ENTIRE DAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN THE WESTERN SLOPES AND THE BLUE RIDGE...CLOUDS THINNING
ACROSS THE NEW RIVER AND GREENBRIER VALLEYS.

MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES TO ACCOUNT FOR
UPSLOPE PRECIP. MODELS SHOW THIS MOISTURE TO BE QUITE SHALLOW
SO IT SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT MOST...MAINLY
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES. DEEP WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS
QUITE BLUSTERY WEST AND BREEZY EAST. RANGE OF HIGH TEMPS FROM
UPPER 30S/AROUND 40 NW TO MID 50S SE LOOKS ON TAP WITH DOWNSLOPE
AIDED WARMING EAST WHERE WILL BE WEAKENING COOL ADVECTION WITH
TIME.

UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS BY TO THE NE OVERNIGHT ALLOWING WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TO GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER FAST BUT
ZONAL CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT LIKELY TO BRING SOME SHEARED MID/HIGH
CLOUDS IN AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING ESPCLY SOUTH BEFORE FADING
SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT PER GUIDANCE RH SECTIONS. OTRW STILL EXPECTING
NW FLOW TO KEEP LOW CLOUDS BANKED UP AGAINST THE WESTERN SLOPES
WITH PERHAPS ADDED FREEZING DRIZZLE IN SPOTS BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY
WONT INCLUDE FOR NOW. LOW CLOUDS COULD AGAIN SPILL OUT TO THE BLUE
RIDGE LATE WITH MAINLY PC ELSW FOR HIGH CLOUDS. COMBO OF ADDED
MIXING AND CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP...WITH UNIFORM UPPER
20S/LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FEW MID 20S VALLEYS PENDING
CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

EXPECT THURSDAY TO BEGIN WITH FAIR WEATHER EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...
BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE OVERCAST WEST OF THE RIDGE THANKS TO NW
UPSLOPE FLOW AND A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...WHICH IS SHOWN NICELY BY BUFKIT MODEL
SOUNDINGS. JUST AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ON THE WAY OUT WE
TRANSITION TO SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. MODELS CONTINUE TO JUST
WHEN THIS SHALLOW MOISTURE IS DISSIPATING...MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
SPREAD OVER THE AREA AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
IN ZONAL UPPER FLOW. VARIATIONS ON THIS THEME FOR THURSDAY HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISED BY GUIDANCE FOR THE PAST FEW RUNS. BELIEVE WE WILL LACK
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO GENERATE ANYTHING MORE THAN A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY
FOR THE RIDGES SO WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS AT OR BELOW SLIGHT
CHANCE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. FAIR CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES BY TO OUR NORTH AND
STARTS WORKING ITS WAY DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS A WEAK WEDGE.

OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WE
HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES FROM THE
GULF COAST THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEKEND. OVERALL...THE LOW
AMPLITUDE SPLIT FLOW UPPER PATTERN IS NOT VERY CONDUCIVE TO
SUPPORTING A MAJOR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A TRAILING NORTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS NEVER ABLE TO
CATCH AND PHASE WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE...WHICH PREVENTS
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROF TO GENERATE A *MILLER A*
TYPE COASTAL LOW. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR THE LOW TO SCOOT
BY TO OUR SOUTH AND DELIVER THE BULK OF ITS OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION TO US SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.

PRECIPITATION TYPE IS GOING TO BE A MAJOR CHALLENGE WITH THIS SYSTEM
AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARGINAL OVER THE AREA AND THE LOW WILL NOT
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH.
EXPECT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO BE FOR A
MIX AT THE START SATURDAY MORNING...TO MAINLY RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME
FREEZING RAIN FOR THE PIEDMONT WITH THE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
HOLDING SHALLOW COLD AIR NEAR THE SURFACE...BACK TO MIX SATURDAY
NIGHT AS PRECIPITATION LESSENS. BLUE RIDGE WEST WILL SEE THINGS
START AS SNOW...THEN GO TO A MIX...THEN BACK TO SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THINGS WINDING DOWN. THE BEST CHANCE OF A MOSTLY SNOW EVENT
SEEMS TO BE THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES ON INTO THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS
WHERE A SLUSHY COUPLE OF INCHES IS POSSIBLE. MANY DETAILS HAVE YET
TO EMERGE WITH THIS SYSTEM SO EXPECT PRECIPITATION TYPE AND
POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS TO CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT AND
THINGS COME INTO FOCUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST TUESDAY...

LATEST 00Z ECMWF SHOWS WEAK LOW PRESSURE SLIDING NE ALONG THE N
CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN AXIS OF DEFORMATION PRECIP
INLAND ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ESPCLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER
ADDED QPF LOOKS RATHER LIGHT AND MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AT
THIS POINT WHERE LIKELY MORE LIQUID NATURE TO START THE EVENING.

MAJORITY OF THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP SHOULD BE EXITING TO EAST
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS MOST SEEING THINGS TAPER OFF AS
A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW AS COLDER AIR FINALLY WRAPS IN. HOWEVER
THIS PENDING LATER TIMING AND MODEL TRENDS WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT
AND THE DEGREE OF COVERAGE OF THE PRECIP SATURDAY EVENING.

BY SUNDAY...THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS THAT THE
AREA WILL BE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH ENOUGH COLD AIR
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A STIFF NORTHWEST WIND TRAJECTORY FOR
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WEST TO CONCLUDE THE EVENT.

BY THE TIME WE GET TO SUNDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE LIFTING OUT OF THE REGION...AND
SUB FREEZING AIR WILL HAVE WRAPPED IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM AT THE
LOWER LEVELS. ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION HAS A GREATER CHANCE TO
BE SNOW OR RAIN WITHOUT THE PRESENCE OF A WARM NOSE ALOFT. BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE PREFERRED AREA OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND
NEIGHBORING PARTS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA WILL GRADUALLY ERODE AS
DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE REGION AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
GRADUALLY BACKS WEST TO SOUTHWEST.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE THE REGION
WITH LIGHT WINDS...LIMITED CLOUD COVER AND NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY. THE GFS
IS QUICK TO BRING THE COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKE REGION. THIS
SYSTEM IS KEPT DISTINCT FROM A DISTURBANCE OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS THAT HAS LITTLE OR NO INTERACTION WITH THE GREAT LAKES
TROUGH THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF OUR FORECAST PERIOD. FOLLOWING
THIS SOLUTION YIELD LIMITED COVERAGE OF RAIN OR SNOW REACHING THE
WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY TUESDAY. THE
ECMWF SOLUTION ALSO HAS THE TWO SYSTEMS DISTINCT THROUGH
TUESDAY...BUT FOR A DIFFERENT REASON. THIS SOLUTIONS IS FARTHER WEST
WITH THE COASTAL SYSTEM...AND WRAPS MOISTURE...AND A WARM
NOSE...INTO OUR AREA DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY TUESDAY. THE GREAT
LAKES SYSTEM IS NOT AS PROGRESSIVE...AND HAS THE TIME TO ELONGATE MORE
SOUTH INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. IF THE ECMWF IS ON
TRACK...THE AREA WILL HAVE A GENEROUS COVERAGE OF A WINTRY MIX
MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. OUR
FORECAST AT THIS POINT WILL RESEMBLE MORE THAT OF THE GFS.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE TRICKY. WHILE WE ARE
EXPECTING A GENERAL TREND TOWARDS MILDER TEMPERATURES EACH DAY PAST
TUESDAY...HOW MUCH...AND WHERE ANY SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW
ARE DEPOSITED WILL PLAY A FACTOR IN BOTH THE HIGHS AND THE LOWS. AT
THIS POINT...AM LEANING ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE...WITH SOME
ALLOTMENT TOWARDS EVEN MORE COOLER WHERE...AT LEAST NOW...THE BEST
CHANCE OF SNOW IS EXPECTED. AT THIS POINT...WILL NOT TOUCH THE FOG
POTENTIAL ONCE WE START TO GET INTO THE RETURN FLOW SIDE OF THE
SURFACE HIGH. ALTHOUGH...AS MILDER AIR STARTS ADVECTING ACROSS ANY
REMAINING SNOWPACK...THE DEW POINT OF THAT AIR WILL LIKELY BE MILDER
THAN THE TEMPERATURE OF THE SNOW IT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 555 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

STRONG NW FLOW CONTINUING TO PUSH LOWER CIGS FARTHER EAST EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH LOW END VFR OUT EAST TO KLYH/KDAN AND MVFR AT
KBCB/KROA WITH IFR OR WORSE KBLF/KLWB. THIS TREND LIKELY TO
PREVAIL THROUGH MID OR LATE MORNING BEFORE THINGS SCATTER OUT IN
THE EAST AND CLOUDS RETROGRADE WESTWARD NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE BY
AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE BRIEFLY DECREASES. STILL APPEARS THAT KBCB WILL
BE GOING TO VFR CIGS AFTER 16Z/11 AM...THEN SCATTERING OUT IN THE
AFTERNOON. CIGS TO STAY IFR TO LIFR AT KBLF/KLWB BUT RISE TO MVFR
THIS AFTERNOON. MAY SEE SCATTERED CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON BUT 00Z
NAM/CMC STILL HANGING ONTO THE LOWER CIGS INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
ATTM...WILL LEAVE IT SCATTERED FROM LATE AFTERNOON-06Z THU AND
THEN LOWER CIGS BACK TO AT LEAST MVFR FROM KBCB WEST IF NOT WORSE
AT KBLF/KLWB LATER THU NIGHT. SOME SPOTTY -RA/-SN OR -DZ POSSIBLE
AS WELL AROUND KBLF/KLWB EARLY THIS MORNING BUT NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF VSBY REDUCTIONS OUTSIDE OF DENSE FOG AT KBLF
THIS MORNING.

WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AT TIMES FROM THE WNW ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS ESPCLY THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS POSSIBLE AT
KROA/KBLF AND KBCB. THEN WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH BY LATE
AFTERNOON TODAY WITH ONLY SOME GUSTS LINGERING ALONG THE RIDGES
INTO TONIGHT.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK RELATIVELY BENIGN...THOUGH LOWER MVFR CIGS
WILL LINGER IN THE WEST THU.

THE FRI NIGHT-SAT SYSTEM NOW HAS TRENDED WEAKER BUT WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED AS IT LOOKS TO STILL BRING A PERIOD OF SUB VFR
WINTRY WEATHER ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST SAT.

AVIATION INTERESTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION AS LATER
FORECASTS BECOME AVAILABLE. THIS WILL LIKELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON AIR
TRAVEL OVER THE WEEKEND...FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
CAROLINAS NORTH TO THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...JH/PM
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...DS/JH
AVIATION...DS/JH/KK/WP



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 171459
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
959 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DRYING WNW FLO WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THIS AFTN...RESULTING IN A
DECENT MID DEC DAY ACRS THE CWA. UNDER A PARTLY OR MOSTLY SUNNY
SKY...HI TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LWR TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY/ZONAL FLO WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH FRI. WK SFC HI PRES
WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE MDATLC RGN FM THE W. A COUPLE OF WK
SYSTEMS ALOFT TRACKING W-E IN FAST FLO ALOFT THROUGH END OF THE
WK...XPCG SKY CONDS FM MSTLY CLR TO PCLDY. HI TEMPS THU AND FRI
RANGING FM THE L40S N TO ARND 50F S. LO TEMPS MNLY RANGING FM THE
U20S TO M30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONTINUE TO FAVOR A BLENDED SOLUTION LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF AND
ITS MEMBER ENSEMBLES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRIMARY
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS IN REGARDS TO THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER
PATTERN AND THE EVENTUAL STORM TRACK OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COAST LATER FRIDAY. WHILE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE BEEN LITERALLY ALL OVER THE MAP WITH THIS
SYSTEM, THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE OPERATIONAL
CANADIAN REMAIN THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM.

MODELS CAN AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL BE
RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE AREA TO BEGIN THE FORECAST PERIOD FRIDAY
NIGHT. ALSO WIDESPREAD CONSENSUS IN INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AS DEVELOPING UPPER
DISTURBANCE SLIDES NE FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS THE
MID-SOUTH BY 12Z SATURDAY, WITH SFC CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING FRIDAY
NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST. DESPITE SOME CONTINUED TEMPORAL
DIFFERENCES, MODELS ARE MORE OR LESS COMING INTO CONSENSUS WITH
DEPICTION OF A LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER SYSTEM. THE RESULTANT STORM
TRACK WOULD TRACK SFC LOW ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST EARLY SUNDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE AND ANALOGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
OVERRUNNING PCPN QUICKLY INCREASING, WITH LIKELY POPS APPEARING
REASONABLE BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. GIVEN THE TRACK AND THE TRANSIENT, RELATIVELY WEAK SFC
HIGH TO THE NORTH, STILL APPEARS TO BE JUST A COLD RAIN FOR OUR
AREA (HAVE ADDED SLGT CHC IP FOR ABT NW 1/2 HALF OF FA LT FRI
NGT/SAT MRNG GIVEN MDL SOUNDINGS SHOWING IP PROFILE OVR INLAND
PORTIONS OF FA AS PCPN ARRIVES). HAVE HELD ON TO SOME SNOW SHRA
MENTION SAT NIGHT OVER INTERIOR ZONES AS FEW SNOWFLAKES WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS PCPN COMES TO AN END SATURDAY NIGHT/ERY SUN MORNING.
OTHERWISE, PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END QUICKLY INLAND AS SYSTEM
PUSHES E-NE OFFSHORE SUNDAY AFTN/EVE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD, REACHING ABOVE CLIMO BY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM, WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...COLD FRNT HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE WITH SOME LINGERING LO-
LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS LEADING TO AREAS OF FOG/LO
STRATUS. THIS IS CURRENTLY MAINLY CONFINED TO EXTREME SE VA/NE
NC...WHERE IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED BY 13-14Z. W/NW FLOW THEN
CONTINUES INTO THE AFTN HRS...GUSTING AT TIMES TO 15-20 KT. WINDS
DIMINISH AFTR SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
LATE SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED ALONG WITH PERIODS OF
IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRNT WILL PUSH FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS MORNG WITH WLY FLOW
LEFT IN ITS WAKE. SFC HI PRES THEN SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W TDA THRU
FRI. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE W/NW THRU THE PERIOD. DID HOIST A SCA
FOR NRN CSTL WTRS TNGT WHERE 20-25 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO A
TROF OF LO PRES SLIDING THRU AND SUBSEQUENT CAA SURGE. MAY COME
CLOSE TO CRITERIA OVR THE NRN BAY AS WELL SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR...MAY ALSO BE BRIEF ENUF TO HANDLE WITH A MWS IF NEC.
OTWS...SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS MAINLY 3-4 FT WITH WAVES OVR THE BAY 2-3
FT. SIMILAR CONDS INTO THU AND FRI WITH JUST A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
WINDS EACH DAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A CSTL LO THAT WILL TRACK UP
NEAR THE CAROLINA CST THIS WEEKEND. CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE
DICTATED BY THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS LO...FOR WHICH THERE`S
STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB/TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...ALB/MAM
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 171459
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
959 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DRYING WNW FLO WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THIS AFTN...RESULTING IN A
DECENT MID DEC DAY ACRS THE CWA. UNDER A PARTLY OR MOSTLY SUNNY
SKY...HI TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LWR TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY/ZONAL FLO WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH FRI. WK SFC HI PRES
WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE MDATLC RGN FM THE W. A COUPLE OF WK
SYSTEMS ALOFT TRACKING W-E IN FAST FLO ALOFT THROUGH END OF THE
WK...XPCG SKY CONDS FM MSTLY CLR TO PCLDY. HI TEMPS THU AND FRI
RANGING FM THE L40S N TO ARND 50F S. LO TEMPS MNLY RANGING FM THE
U20S TO M30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONTINUE TO FAVOR A BLENDED SOLUTION LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF AND
ITS MEMBER ENSEMBLES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRIMARY
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS IN REGARDS TO THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER
PATTERN AND THE EVENTUAL STORM TRACK OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COAST LATER FRIDAY. WHILE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE BEEN LITERALLY ALL OVER THE MAP WITH THIS
SYSTEM, THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE OPERATIONAL
CANADIAN REMAIN THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM.

MODELS CAN AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL BE
RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE AREA TO BEGIN THE FORECAST PERIOD FRIDAY
NIGHT. ALSO WIDESPREAD CONSENSUS IN INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AS DEVELOPING UPPER
DISTURBANCE SLIDES NE FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS THE
MID-SOUTH BY 12Z SATURDAY, WITH SFC CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING FRIDAY
NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST. DESPITE SOME CONTINUED TEMPORAL
DIFFERENCES, MODELS ARE MORE OR LESS COMING INTO CONSENSUS WITH
DEPICTION OF A LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER SYSTEM. THE RESULTANT STORM
TRACK WOULD TRACK SFC LOW ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST EARLY SUNDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE AND ANALOGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
OVERRUNNING PCPN QUICKLY INCREASING, WITH LIKELY POPS APPEARING
REASONABLE BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. GIVEN THE TRACK AND THE TRANSIENT, RELATIVELY WEAK SFC
HIGH TO THE NORTH, STILL APPEARS TO BE JUST A COLD RAIN FOR OUR
AREA (HAVE ADDED SLGT CHC IP FOR ABT NW 1/2 HALF OF FA LT FRI
NGT/SAT MRNG GIVEN MDL SOUNDINGS SHOWING IP PROFILE OVR INLAND
PORTIONS OF FA AS PCPN ARRIVES). HAVE HELD ON TO SOME SNOW SHRA
MENTION SAT NIGHT OVER INTERIOR ZONES AS FEW SNOWFLAKES WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS PCPN COMES TO AN END SATURDAY NIGHT/ERY SUN MORNING.
OTHERWISE, PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END QUICKLY INLAND AS SYSTEM
PUSHES E-NE OFFSHORE SUNDAY AFTN/EVE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD, REACHING ABOVE CLIMO BY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM, WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...COLD FRNT HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE WITH SOME LINGERING LO-
LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS LEADING TO AREAS OF FOG/LO
STRATUS. THIS IS CURRENTLY MAINLY CONFINED TO EXTREME SE VA/NE
NC...WHERE IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED BY 13-14Z. W/NW FLOW THEN
CONTINUES INTO THE AFTN HRS...GUSTING AT TIMES TO 15-20 KT. WINDS
DIMINISH AFTR SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
LATE SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED ALONG WITH PERIODS OF
IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRNT WILL PUSH FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS MORNG WITH WLY FLOW
LEFT IN ITS WAKE. SFC HI PRES THEN SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W TDA THRU
FRI. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE W/NW THRU THE PERIOD. DID HOIST A SCA
FOR NRN CSTL WTRS TNGT WHERE 20-25 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO A
TROF OF LO PRES SLIDING THRU AND SUBSEQUENT CAA SURGE. MAY COME
CLOSE TO CRITERIA OVR THE NRN BAY AS WELL SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR...MAY ALSO BE BRIEF ENUF TO HANDLE WITH A MWS IF NEC.
OTWS...SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS MAINLY 3-4 FT WITH WAVES OVR THE BAY 2-3
FT. SIMILAR CONDS INTO THU AND FRI WITH JUST A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
WINDS EACH DAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A CSTL LO THAT WILL TRACK UP
NEAR THE CAROLINA CST THIS WEEKEND. CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE
DICTATED BY THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS LO...FOR WHICH THERE`S
STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB/TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...ALB/MAM
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 171459
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
959 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DRYING WNW FLO WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THIS AFTN...RESULTING IN A
DECENT MID DEC DAY ACRS THE CWA. UNDER A PARTLY OR MOSTLY SUNNY
SKY...HI TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LWR TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY/ZONAL FLO WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH FRI. WK SFC HI PRES
WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE MDATLC RGN FM THE W. A COUPLE OF WK
SYSTEMS ALOFT TRACKING W-E IN FAST FLO ALOFT THROUGH END OF THE
WK...XPCG SKY CONDS FM MSTLY CLR TO PCLDY. HI TEMPS THU AND FRI
RANGING FM THE L40S N TO ARND 50F S. LO TEMPS MNLY RANGING FM THE
U20S TO M30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONTINUE TO FAVOR A BLENDED SOLUTION LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF AND
ITS MEMBER ENSEMBLES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRIMARY
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS IN REGARDS TO THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER
PATTERN AND THE EVENTUAL STORM TRACK OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COAST LATER FRIDAY. WHILE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE BEEN LITERALLY ALL OVER THE MAP WITH THIS
SYSTEM, THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE OPERATIONAL
CANADIAN REMAIN THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM.

MODELS CAN AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL BE
RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE AREA TO BEGIN THE FORECAST PERIOD FRIDAY
NIGHT. ALSO WIDESPREAD CONSENSUS IN INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AS DEVELOPING UPPER
DISTURBANCE SLIDES NE FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS THE
MID-SOUTH BY 12Z SATURDAY, WITH SFC CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING FRIDAY
NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST. DESPITE SOME CONTINUED TEMPORAL
DIFFERENCES, MODELS ARE MORE OR LESS COMING INTO CONSENSUS WITH
DEPICTION OF A LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER SYSTEM. THE RESULTANT STORM
TRACK WOULD TRACK SFC LOW ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST EARLY SUNDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE AND ANALOGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
OVERRUNNING PCPN QUICKLY INCREASING, WITH LIKELY POPS APPEARING
REASONABLE BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. GIVEN THE TRACK AND THE TRANSIENT, RELATIVELY WEAK SFC
HIGH TO THE NORTH, STILL APPEARS TO BE JUST A COLD RAIN FOR OUR
AREA (HAVE ADDED SLGT CHC IP FOR ABT NW 1/2 HALF OF FA LT FRI
NGT/SAT MRNG GIVEN MDL SOUNDINGS SHOWING IP PROFILE OVR INLAND
PORTIONS OF FA AS PCPN ARRIVES). HAVE HELD ON TO SOME SNOW SHRA
MENTION SAT NIGHT OVER INTERIOR ZONES AS FEW SNOWFLAKES WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS PCPN COMES TO AN END SATURDAY NIGHT/ERY SUN MORNING.
OTHERWISE, PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END QUICKLY INLAND AS SYSTEM
PUSHES E-NE OFFSHORE SUNDAY AFTN/EVE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD, REACHING ABOVE CLIMO BY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM, WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...COLD FRNT HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE WITH SOME LINGERING LO-
LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS LEADING TO AREAS OF FOG/LO
STRATUS. THIS IS CURRENTLY MAINLY CONFINED TO EXTREME SE VA/NE
NC...WHERE IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED BY 13-14Z. W/NW FLOW THEN
CONTINUES INTO THE AFTN HRS...GUSTING AT TIMES TO 15-20 KT. WINDS
DIMINISH AFTR SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
LATE SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED ALONG WITH PERIODS OF
IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRNT WILL PUSH FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS MORNG WITH WLY FLOW
LEFT IN ITS WAKE. SFC HI PRES THEN SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W TDA THRU
FRI. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE W/NW THRU THE PERIOD. DID HOIST A SCA
FOR NRN CSTL WTRS TNGT WHERE 20-25 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO A
TROF OF LO PRES SLIDING THRU AND SUBSEQUENT CAA SURGE. MAY COME
CLOSE TO CRITERIA OVR THE NRN BAY AS WELL SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR...MAY ALSO BE BRIEF ENUF TO HANDLE WITH A MWS IF NEC.
OTWS...SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS MAINLY 3-4 FT WITH WAVES OVR THE BAY 2-3
FT. SIMILAR CONDS INTO THU AND FRI WITH JUST A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
WINDS EACH DAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A CSTL LO THAT WILL TRACK UP
NEAR THE CAROLINA CST THIS WEEKEND. CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE
DICTATED BY THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS LO...FOR WHICH THERE`S
STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB/TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...ALB/MAM
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 171459
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
959 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DRYING WNW FLO WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THIS AFTN...RESULTING IN A
DECENT MID DEC DAY ACRS THE CWA. UNDER A PARTLY OR MOSTLY SUNNY
SKY...HI TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LWR TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY/ZONAL FLO WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH FRI. WK SFC HI PRES
WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE MDATLC RGN FM THE W. A COUPLE OF WK
SYSTEMS ALOFT TRACKING W-E IN FAST FLO ALOFT THROUGH END OF THE
WK...XPCG SKY CONDS FM MSTLY CLR TO PCLDY. HI TEMPS THU AND FRI
RANGING FM THE L40S N TO ARND 50F S. LO TEMPS MNLY RANGING FM THE
U20S TO M30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONTINUE TO FAVOR A BLENDED SOLUTION LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF AND
ITS MEMBER ENSEMBLES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRIMARY
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS IN REGARDS TO THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER
PATTERN AND THE EVENTUAL STORM TRACK OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COAST LATER FRIDAY. WHILE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE BEEN LITERALLY ALL OVER THE MAP WITH THIS
SYSTEM, THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE OPERATIONAL
CANADIAN REMAIN THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM.

MODELS CAN AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL BE
RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE AREA TO BEGIN THE FORECAST PERIOD FRIDAY
NIGHT. ALSO WIDESPREAD CONSENSUS IN INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AS DEVELOPING UPPER
DISTURBANCE SLIDES NE FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS THE
MID-SOUTH BY 12Z SATURDAY, WITH SFC CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING FRIDAY
NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST. DESPITE SOME CONTINUED TEMPORAL
DIFFERENCES, MODELS ARE MORE OR LESS COMING INTO CONSENSUS WITH
DEPICTION OF A LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER SYSTEM. THE RESULTANT STORM
TRACK WOULD TRACK SFC LOW ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST EARLY SUNDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE AND ANALOGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
OVERRUNNING PCPN QUICKLY INCREASING, WITH LIKELY POPS APPEARING
REASONABLE BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. GIVEN THE TRACK AND THE TRANSIENT, RELATIVELY WEAK SFC
HIGH TO THE NORTH, STILL APPEARS TO BE JUST A COLD RAIN FOR OUR
AREA (HAVE ADDED SLGT CHC IP FOR ABT NW 1/2 HALF OF FA LT FRI
NGT/SAT MRNG GIVEN MDL SOUNDINGS SHOWING IP PROFILE OVR INLAND
PORTIONS OF FA AS PCPN ARRIVES). HAVE HELD ON TO SOME SNOW SHRA
MENTION SAT NIGHT OVER INTERIOR ZONES AS FEW SNOWFLAKES WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS PCPN COMES TO AN END SATURDAY NIGHT/ERY SUN MORNING.
OTHERWISE, PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END QUICKLY INLAND AS SYSTEM
PUSHES E-NE OFFSHORE SUNDAY AFTN/EVE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD, REACHING ABOVE CLIMO BY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM, WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...COLD FRNT HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE WITH SOME LINGERING LO-
LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS LEADING TO AREAS OF FOG/LO
STRATUS. THIS IS CURRENTLY MAINLY CONFINED TO EXTREME SE VA/NE
NC...WHERE IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED BY 13-14Z. W/NW FLOW THEN
CONTINUES INTO THE AFTN HRS...GUSTING AT TIMES TO 15-20 KT. WINDS
DIMINISH AFTR SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
LATE SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED ALONG WITH PERIODS OF
IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRNT WILL PUSH FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS MORNG WITH WLY FLOW
LEFT IN ITS WAKE. SFC HI PRES THEN SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W TDA THRU
FRI. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE W/NW THRU THE PERIOD. DID HOIST A SCA
FOR NRN CSTL WTRS TNGT WHERE 20-25 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO A
TROF OF LO PRES SLIDING THRU AND SUBSEQUENT CAA SURGE. MAY COME
CLOSE TO CRITERIA OVR THE NRN BAY AS WELL SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR...MAY ALSO BE BRIEF ENUF TO HANDLE WITH A MWS IF NEC.
OTWS...SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS MAINLY 3-4 FT WITH WAVES OVR THE BAY 2-3
FT. SIMILAR CONDS INTO THU AND FRI WITH JUST A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
WINDS EACH DAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A CSTL LO THAT WILL TRACK UP
NEAR THE CAROLINA CST THIS WEEKEND. CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE
DICTATED BY THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS LO...FOR WHICH THERE`S
STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB/TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...ALB/MAM
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 171335
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
835 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

DENSE FOR ADVSRY XPIRED. AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN...INCREASING WESTERLY
FLOW WILL SEE GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH PSBL DURING THE AFTN.

IN THE HIGHLANDS...INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD WORK TO
GENERATE SCT UPSLOPE SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHC THIS
MORNING...THEN TAPERING OFF DURING THE AFTN. COLD AIR HAS BEEN
SLOW TO MOVE IN...AND AS SUCH CAN EXPECT MIX RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH ALL SNOW AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. THE PCPN IS
VERY LIGHT IN NATURE...AND ONLY A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW
AT MOST IS FORECASTED.

FOR TEMPS TODAY...CAA FAIRLY WEAK AS TROUGH ALOFT TURNS MORE
ZONAL...KEEPING THE COLDER TEMPS TO THE NORTH. THE BETTER SHOT OF
CAA NOT EXPECTED UNTIL TONIGHT. SIDED MORE WITH A WARMER MAV
SOLUTION AS DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT FOR MOST OF THE CWA WITH SKIES
SCATTERING OUT SEEMS THE MORE REASONABLE SOLUTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH THE AREA REMAINING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY DURING
THIS TIME. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AS A TROUGH PIVOTS
THROUGH...FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TOMORROW. OVERALL
EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS THOUGH FOR MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT WEST OF
THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WHICH COULD SEE FLURRIES THIS EVENING. DESPITE
DECENT FORCING ALOFT WITH THE MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES DURING THIS
PERIOD...LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP ANYTHING FROM FORMING...WITH THE
ONLY IMPACT FROM THE ENERGY THUS BEING INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

THE STRONGER CAA FINALLY DIPS SOUTH TONIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW DROPPING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. SIDED MORE WITH
THE MET FOR LOWS AND CONTINUED WITH THE TREND OF LEANING TO THE MAV
FOR THE HIGHS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

RDGG OVER CWFA SFC UP THRU H5 FRI-FRI NGT. KEPT BOTH PDS DRY.
SHUD HV PLENTY OF SUN DURING THE DAY. MSTR INCREASES FM THE SW AT
NGT...SPCLY AFTR MIDNGT. WL HV SKIES BCMG MOCLDY IN VA...NE OF
PTMC RIVER MAY AVG OUT PTCLDY.

GDNC CONTINUING TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION THRU THE WKND...WHICH
TAKES AN OPEN SRN STREAM WV WELL SOUTH OF THE CWFA SAT. LTST ECMWF
MUCH LESS DVLPD WRT CSTL LOW. NONETHELESS...THIS TRACK...AND A NRN
STREAM S/WV...WL BE SUFFICIENT TO TOSS LGT PCPN THIS WAY. COLD AIR
WL BE MARGINAL AT BEST...SUGGESTING THERE MAY BE A DIURNAL AND ELEV
COMPONENT TO PTYPE. STILL HV SNOWY/MIXED PDS...SPCLY W OF THE I-95
CRRDR. THE WETTEST PD MAY TURN OUT TO BE SAT NGT...WHICH WUD BE ABT
WHEN LOW WL TRANSFER ITS ENERGY TO THE COAST...AND WE/LL ALSO HV PVA
ALOFT. AM KEEPING SCHC/CHC POPS INTO SUNDAY...MORE OUT OF RESPECT TO
ECMWF...AND THE TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFS THAT LINGER.

SUBSIDENCE BLDS BHD THIS SYSTEM FOR SUN NGT-MON NGT. H5 FLOW STILL
QUITE ZNL...SO THERE WONT BE A LOT OF COLD AIR AVBL. HV TEMPS ONLY A
CPL DEGF BLO AVG. THERE MAY BE YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM ON THE
HORIZON BY DAY 7. WL BE GENERIC ATTM...AS THERE/S A LOT OF WX TO GET
THROUGH FIRST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

VFR TODAY W/ WRLY WINDS GUSTING 20-25 KT THIS AFTN. GUSTS END BY
00Z TONIGHT...WITH W FLOW CONTINUING OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KTS. OCNL GUSTS PSBL KDCA OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAF.

VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

VFR FRI-FRI NGT. FLGT RESTRICTIONS SHUD OVERSPREAD TERMINALS SAT...
AND LINGER INTO ELY SUN. PCPN MAY BE ON THE LGT SIDE...WHICH WUD
SUGGEST THAT MVFR MAY PREVAIL...W/ PDS OF IFR. PTYPE STILL IN QSTN.

&&

.MARINE...

SCA IN EFFECT FOR TODAY FOR ALL WATERS WITH INCREASING WEST
WINDS...GUSTING UP TO 20 KTS. THE SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE COULD BE PERIODS TONIGHT WHERE
THE WINDS DROP BELOW 18 KTS...BUT THE WINDOW SMALL ENOUGH TO WARRANT
THE CONTINUATION OF THE SCA. THE SCA REMAINS ON ALL WATERS THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF THE GUSTS REMAINING ABV 18
KTS OVER JUST THE NORTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY MAINTAIN THE SCA THERE
TILL THURS EVENING.

HIPRES OVER THE WATERS FRI. WK LOPRES PASSING WELL S OVER THE WKND.
WHILE PCPN XPCTD TO REACH WATERS...THE GRADIENT SHUD BE ON THE LGT
SIDE. FOR THAT REASON...NO FLAGS XPCTD ATTM.


&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>532-
     538>540.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ533>537-
     541>543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...AS/HTS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 171335
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
835 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

DENSE FOR ADVSRY XPIRED. AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN...INCREASING WESTERLY
FLOW WILL SEE GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH PSBL DURING THE AFTN.

IN THE HIGHLANDS...INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD WORK TO
GENERATE SCT UPSLOPE SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHC THIS
MORNING...THEN TAPERING OFF DURING THE AFTN. COLD AIR HAS BEEN
SLOW TO MOVE IN...AND AS SUCH CAN EXPECT MIX RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH ALL SNOW AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. THE PCPN IS
VERY LIGHT IN NATURE...AND ONLY A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW
AT MOST IS FORECASTED.

FOR TEMPS TODAY...CAA FAIRLY WEAK AS TROUGH ALOFT TURNS MORE
ZONAL...KEEPING THE COLDER TEMPS TO THE NORTH. THE BETTER SHOT OF
CAA NOT EXPECTED UNTIL TONIGHT. SIDED MORE WITH A WARMER MAV
SOLUTION AS DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT FOR MOST OF THE CWA WITH SKIES
SCATTERING OUT SEEMS THE MORE REASONABLE SOLUTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH THE AREA REMAINING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY DURING
THIS TIME. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AS A TROUGH PIVOTS
THROUGH...FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TOMORROW. OVERALL
EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS THOUGH FOR MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT WEST OF
THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WHICH COULD SEE FLURRIES THIS EVENING. DESPITE
DECENT FORCING ALOFT WITH THE MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES DURING THIS
PERIOD...LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP ANYTHING FROM FORMING...WITH THE
ONLY IMPACT FROM THE ENERGY THUS BEING INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

THE STRONGER CAA FINALLY DIPS SOUTH TONIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW DROPPING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. SIDED MORE WITH
THE MET FOR LOWS AND CONTINUED WITH THE TREND OF LEANING TO THE MAV
FOR THE HIGHS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

RDGG OVER CWFA SFC UP THRU H5 FRI-FRI NGT. KEPT BOTH PDS DRY.
SHUD HV PLENTY OF SUN DURING THE DAY. MSTR INCREASES FM THE SW AT
NGT...SPCLY AFTR MIDNGT. WL HV SKIES BCMG MOCLDY IN VA...NE OF
PTMC RIVER MAY AVG OUT PTCLDY.

GDNC CONTINUING TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION THRU THE WKND...WHICH
TAKES AN OPEN SRN STREAM WV WELL SOUTH OF THE CWFA SAT. LTST ECMWF
MUCH LESS DVLPD WRT CSTL LOW. NONETHELESS...THIS TRACK...AND A NRN
STREAM S/WV...WL BE SUFFICIENT TO TOSS LGT PCPN THIS WAY. COLD AIR
WL BE MARGINAL AT BEST...SUGGESTING THERE MAY BE A DIURNAL AND ELEV
COMPONENT TO PTYPE. STILL HV SNOWY/MIXED PDS...SPCLY W OF THE I-95
CRRDR. THE WETTEST PD MAY TURN OUT TO BE SAT NGT...WHICH WUD BE ABT
WHEN LOW WL TRANSFER ITS ENERGY TO THE COAST...AND WE/LL ALSO HV PVA
ALOFT. AM KEEPING SCHC/CHC POPS INTO SUNDAY...MORE OUT OF RESPECT TO
ECMWF...AND THE TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFS THAT LINGER.

SUBSIDENCE BLDS BHD THIS SYSTEM FOR SUN NGT-MON NGT. H5 FLOW STILL
QUITE ZNL...SO THERE WONT BE A LOT OF COLD AIR AVBL. HV TEMPS ONLY A
CPL DEGF BLO AVG. THERE MAY BE YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM ON THE
HORIZON BY DAY 7. WL BE GENERIC ATTM...AS THERE/S A LOT OF WX TO GET
THROUGH FIRST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

VFR TODAY W/ WRLY WINDS GUSTING 20-25 KT THIS AFTN. GUSTS END BY
00Z TONIGHT...WITH W FLOW CONTINUING OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KTS. OCNL GUSTS PSBL KDCA OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAF.

VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

VFR FRI-FRI NGT. FLGT RESTRICTIONS SHUD OVERSPREAD TERMINALS SAT...
AND LINGER INTO ELY SUN. PCPN MAY BE ON THE LGT SIDE...WHICH WUD
SUGGEST THAT MVFR MAY PREVAIL...W/ PDS OF IFR. PTYPE STILL IN QSTN.

&&

.MARINE...

SCA IN EFFECT FOR TODAY FOR ALL WATERS WITH INCREASING WEST
WINDS...GUSTING UP TO 20 KTS. THE SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE COULD BE PERIODS TONIGHT WHERE
THE WINDS DROP BELOW 18 KTS...BUT THE WINDOW SMALL ENOUGH TO WARRANT
THE CONTINUATION OF THE SCA. THE SCA REMAINS ON ALL WATERS THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF THE GUSTS REMAINING ABV 18
KTS OVER JUST THE NORTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY MAINTAIN THE SCA THERE
TILL THURS EVENING.

HIPRES OVER THE WATERS FRI. WK LOPRES PASSING WELL S OVER THE WKND.
WHILE PCPN XPCTD TO REACH WATERS...THE GRADIENT SHUD BE ON THE LGT
SIDE. FOR THAT REASON...NO FLAGS XPCTD ATTM.


&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>532-
     538>540.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ533>537-
     541>543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...AS/HTS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 171335
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
835 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

DENSE FOR ADVSRY XPIRED. AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN...INCREASING WESTERLY
FLOW WILL SEE GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH PSBL DURING THE AFTN.

IN THE HIGHLANDS...INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD WORK TO
GENERATE SCT UPSLOPE SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHC THIS
MORNING...THEN TAPERING OFF DURING THE AFTN. COLD AIR HAS BEEN
SLOW TO MOVE IN...AND AS SUCH CAN EXPECT MIX RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH ALL SNOW AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. THE PCPN IS
VERY LIGHT IN NATURE...AND ONLY A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW
AT MOST IS FORECASTED.

FOR TEMPS TODAY...CAA FAIRLY WEAK AS TROUGH ALOFT TURNS MORE
ZONAL...KEEPING THE COLDER TEMPS TO THE NORTH. THE BETTER SHOT OF
CAA NOT EXPECTED UNTIL TONIGHT. SIDED MORE WITH A WARMER MAV
SOLUTION AS DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT FOR MOST OF THE CWA WITH SKIES
SCATTERING OUT SEEMS THE MORE REASONABLE SOLUTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH THE AREA REMAINING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY DURING
THIS TIME. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AS A TROUGH PIVOTS
THROUGH...FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TOMORROW. OVERALL
EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS THOUGH FOR MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT WEST OF
THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WHICH COULD SEE FLURRIES THIS EVENING. DESPITE
DECENT FORCING ALOFT WITH THE MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES DURING THIS
PERIOD...LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP ANYTHING FROM FORMING...WITH THE
ONLY IMPACT FROM THE ENERGY THUS BEING INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

THE STRONGER CAA FINALLY DIPS SOUTH TONIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW DROPPING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. SIDED MORE WITH
THE MET FOR LOWS AND CONTINUED WITH THE TREND OF LEANING TO THE MAV
FOR THE HIGHS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

RDGG OVER CWFA SFC UP THRU H5 FRI-FRI NGT. KEPT BOTH PDS DRY.
SHUD HV PLENTY OF SUN DURING THE DAY. MSTR INCREASES FM THE SW AT
NGT...SPCLY AFTR MIDNGT. WL HV SKIES BCMG MOCLDY IN VA...NE OF
PTMC RIVER MAY AVG OUT PTCLDY.

GDNC CONTINUING TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION THRU THE WKND...WHICH
TAKES AN OPEN SRN STREAM WV WELL SOUTH OF THE CWFA SAT. LTST ECMWF
MUCH LESS DVLPD WRT CSTL LOW. NONETHELESS...THIS TRACK...AND A NRN
STREAM S/WV...WL BE SUFFICIENT TO TOSS LGT PCPN THIS WAY. COLD AIR
WL BE MARGINAL AT BEST...SUGGESTING THERE MAY BE A DIURNAL AND ELEV
COMPONENT TO PTYPE. STILL HV SNOWY/MIXED PDS...SPCLY W OF THE I-95
CRRDR. THE WETTEST PD MAY TURN OUT TO BE SAT NGT...WHICH WUD BE ABT
WHEN LOW WL TRANSFER ITS ENERGY TO THE COAST...AND WE/LL ALSO HV PVA
ALOFT. AM KEEPING SCHC/CHC POPS INTO SUNDAY...MORE OUT OF RESPECT TO
ECMWF...AND THE TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFS THAT LINGER.

SUBSIDENCE BLDS BHD THIS SYSTEM FOR SUN NGT-MON NGT. H5 FLOW STILL
QUITE ZNL...SO THERE WONT BE A LOT OF COLD AIR AVBL. HV TEMPS ONLY A
CPL DEGF BLO AVG. THERE MAY BE YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM ON THE
HORIZON BY DAY 7. WL BE GENERIC ATTM...AS THERE/S A LOT OF WX TO GET
THROUGH FIRST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

VFR TODAY W/ WRLY WINDS GUSTING 20-25 KT THIS AFTN. GUSTS END BY
00Z TONIGHT...WITH W FLOW CONTINUING OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KTS. OCNL GUSTS PSBL KDCA OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAF.

VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

VFR FRI-FRI NGT. FLGT RESTRICTIONS SHUD OVERSPREAD TERMINALS SAT...
AND LINGER INTO ELY SUN. PCPN MAY BE ON THE LGT SIDE...WHICH WUD
SUGGEST THAT MVFR MAY PREVAIL...W/ PDS OF IFR. PTYPE STILL IN QSTN.

&&

.MARINE...

SCA IN EFFECT FOR TODAY FOR ALL WATERS WITH INCREASING WEST
WINDS...GUSTING UP TO 20 KTS. THE SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE COULD BE PERIODS TONIGHT WHERE
THE WINDS DROP BELOW 18 KTS...BUT THE WINDOW SMALL ENOUGH TO WARRANT
THE CONTINUATION OF THE SCA. THE SCA REMAINS ON ALL WATERS THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF THE GUSTS REMAINING ABV 18
KTS OVER JUST THE NORTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY MAINTAIN THE SCA THERE
TILL THURS EVENING.

HIPRES OVER THE WATERS FRI. WK LOPRES PASSING WELL S OVER THE WKND.
WHILE PCPN XPCTD TO REACH WATERS...THE GRADIENT SHUD BE ON THE LGT
SIDE. FOR THAT REASON...NO FLAGS XPCTD ATTM.


&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>532-
     538>540.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ533>537-
     541>543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...AS/HTS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 171335
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
835 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

DENSE FOR ADVSRY XPIRED. AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN...INCREASING WESTERLY
FLOW WILL SEE GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH PSBL DURING THE AFTN.

IN THE HIGHLANDS...INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD WORK TO
GENERATE SCT UPSLOPE SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHC THIS
MORNING...THEN TAPERING OFF DURING THE AFTN. COLD AIR HAS BEEN
SLOW TO MOVE IN...AND AS SUCH CAN EXPECT MIX RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH ALL SNOW AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. THE PCPN IS
VERY LIGHT IN NATURE...AND ONLY A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW
AT MOST IS FORECASTED.

FOR TEMPS TODAY...CAA FAIRLY WEAK AS TROUGH ALOFT TURNS MORE
ZONAL...KEEPING THE COLDER TEMPS TO THE NORTH. THE BETTER SHOT OF
CAA NOT EXPECTED UNTIL TONIGHT. SIDED MORE WITH A WARMER MAV
SOLUTION AS DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT FOR MOST OF THE CWA WITH SKIES
SCATTERING OUT SEEMS THE MORE REASONABLE SOLUTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH THE AREA REMAINING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY DURING
THIS TIME. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AS A TROUGH PIVOTS
THROUGH...FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TOMORROW. OVERALL
EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS THOUGH FOR MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT WEST OF
THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WHICH COULD SEE FLURRIES THIS EVENING. DESPITE
DECENT FORCING ALOFT WITH THE MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES DURING THIS
PERIOD...LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP ANYTHING FROM FORMING...WITH THE
ONLY IMPACT FROM THE ENERGY THUS BEING INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

THE STRONGER CAA FINALLY DIPS SOUTH TONIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW DROPPING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. SIDED MORE WITH
THE MET FOR LOWS AND CONTINUED WITH THE TREND OF LEANING TO THE MAV
FOR THE HIGHS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

RDGG OVER CWFA SFC UP THRU H5 FRI-FRI NGT. KEPT BOTH PDS DRY.
SHUD HV PLENTY OF SUN DURING THE DAY. MSTR INCREASES FM THE SW AT
NGT...SPCLY AFTR MIDNGT. WL HV SKIES BCMG MOCLDY IN VA...NE OF
PTMC RIVER MAY AVG OUT PTCLDY.

GDNC CONTINUING TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION THRU THE WKND...WHICH
TAKES AN OPEN SRN STREAM WV WELL SOUTH OF THE CWFA SAT. LTST ECMWF
MUCH LESS DVLPD WRT CSTL LOW. NONETHELESS...THIS TRACK...AND A NRN
STREAM S/WV...WL BE SUFFICIENT TO TOSS LGT PCPN THIS WAY. COLD AIR
WL BE MARGINAL AT BEST...SUGGESTING THERE MAY BE A DIURNAL AND ELEV
COMPONENT TO PTYPE. STILL HV SNOWY/MIXED PDS...SPCLY W OF THE I-95
CRRDR. THE WETTEST PD MAY TURN OUT TO BE SAT NGT...WHICH WUD BE ABT
WHEN LOW WL TRANSFER ITS ENERGY TO THE COAST...AND WE/LL ALSO HV PVA
ALOFT. AM KEEPING SCHC/CHC POPS INTO SUNDAY...MORE OUT OF RESPECT TO
ECMWF...AND THE TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFS THAT LINGER.

SUBSIDENCE BLDS BHD THIS SYSTEM FOR SUN NGT-MON NGT. H5 FLOW STILL
QUITE ZNL...SO THERE WONT BE A LOT OF COLD AIR AVBL. HV TEMPS ONLY A
CPL DEGF BLO AVG. THERE MAY BE YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM ON THE
HORIZON BY DAY 7. WL BE GENERIC ATTM...AS THERE/S A LOT OF WX TO GET
THROUGH FIRST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

VFR TODAY W/ WRLY WINDS GUSTING 20-25 KT THIS AFTN. GUSTS END BY
00Z TONIGHT...WITH W FLOW CONTINUING OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KTS. OCNL GUSTS PSBL KDCA OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAF.

VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

VFR FRI-FRI NGT. FLGT RESTRICTIONS SHUD OVERSPREAD TERMINALS SAT...
AND LINGER INTO ELY SUN. PCPN MAY BE ON THE LGT SIDE...WHICH WUD
SUGGEST THAT MVFR MAY PREVAIL...W/ PDS OF IFR. PTYPE STILL IN QSTN.

&&

.MARINE...

SCA IN EFFECT FOR TODAY FOR ALL WATERS WITH INCREASING WEST
WINDS...GUSTING UP TO 20 KTS. THE SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE COULD BE PERIODS TONIGHT WHERE
THE WINDS DROP BELOW 18 KTS...BUT THE WINDOW SMALL ENOUGH TO WARRANT
THE CONTINUATION OF THE SCA. THE SCA REMAINS ON ALL WATERS THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF THE GUSTS REMAINING ABV 18
KTS OVER JUST THE NORTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY MAINTAIN THE SCA THERE
TILL THURS EVENING.

HIPRES OVER THE WATERS FRI. WK LOPRES PASSING WELL S OVER THE WKND.
WHILE PCPN XPCTD TO REACH WATERS...THE GRADIENT SHUD BE ON THE LGT
SIDE. FOR THAT REASON...NO FLAGS XPCTD ATTM.


&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>532-
     538>540.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ533>537-
     541>543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...AS/HTS








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 171145
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
645 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY INTO
FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CDFNT WELL TO THE E AND OFFSHORE ATTM. DRYING WNW FLO
DEVELOPING...AND WILL PROVIDE A DECENT MID DEC DAY ACRS THE FA.
RESIDUAL MOISTURE LINGERS ATTM IN FORM OF ST AND PATCHY FOG...ESP
E OF I 95 TO THE CST. MIXING HAS SCOURED OUT MUCH OF THAT LO LVL
MOISTURE (WELL) INLAND...AND XPCD TO DO SO INTO THE MID MRNG HRS.
A PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON THE WAY...W/ HI TEMPS IN THE L/M50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY/ZONAL FLO WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH FRI. WK SFC HI PRES
WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE MDATLC RGN FM THE W. A COUPLE OF WK
SYSTEMS ALOFT TRACKING W-E IN FAST FLO ALOFT THROUGH END OF THE
WK...XPCG SKY CONDS FM MSTLY CLR TO PCLDY. HI TEMPS THU AND FRI
RANGING FM THE L40S N TO ARND 50F S. LO TEMPS MNLY RANGING FM THE
U20S TO M30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONTINUE TO FAVOR A BLENDED SOLUTION LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF AND
ITS MEMBER ENSEMBLES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRIMARY
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS IN REGARDS TO THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER
PATTERN AND THE EVENTUAL STORM TRACK OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COAST LATER FRIDAY. WHILE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE BEEN LITERALLY ALL OVER THE MAP WITH THIS
SYSTEM, THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE OPERATIONAL
CANADIAN REMAIN THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM.

MODELS CAN AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL BE
RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE AREA TO BEGIN THE FORECAST PERIOD FRIDAY
NIGHT. ALSO WIDESPREAD CONSENSUS IN INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AS DEVELOPING UPPER
DISTURBANCE SLIDES NE FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS THE
MID-SOUTH BY 12Z SATURDAY, WITH SFC CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING FRIDAY
NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST. DESPITE SOME CONTINUED TEMPORAL
DIFFERENCES, MODELS ARE MORE OR LESS COMING INTO CONSENSUS WITH
DEPICTION OF A LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER SYSTEM. THE RESULTANT STORM
TRACK WOULD TRACK SFC LOW ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST EARLY SUNDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE AND ANALOGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
OVERRUNNING PCPN QUICKLY INCREASING, WITH LIKELY POPS APPEARING
REASONABLE BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. GIVEN THE TRACK AND THE TRANSIENT, RELATIVELY WEAK SFC
HIGH TO THE NORTH, STILL APPEARS TO BE JUST A COLD RAIN FOR OUR
AREA (HAVE ADDED SLGT CHC IP FOR ABT NW 1/2 HALF OF FA LT FRI
NGT/SAT MRNG GIVEN MDL SOUNDINGS SHOWING IP PROFILE OVR INLAND
PORTIONS OF FA AS PCPN ARRIVES). HAVE HELD ON TO SOME SNOW SHRA
MENTION SAT NIGHT OVER INTERIOR ZONES AS FEW SNOWFLAKES WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS PCPN COMES TO AN END SATURDAY NIGHT/ERY SUN MORNING.
OTHERWISE, PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END QUICKLY INLAND AS SYSTEM
PUSHES E-NE OFFSHORE SUNDAY AFTN/EVE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD, REACHING ABOVE CLIMO BY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM, WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...COLD FRNT HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE WITH SOME LINGERING LO-
LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS LEADING TO AREAS OF FOG/LO
STRATUS. THIS IS CURRENTLY MAINLY CONFINED TO EXTREME SE VA/NE
NC...WHERE IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED BY 13-14Z. W/NW FLOW THEN
CONTINUES INTO THE AFTN HRS...GUSTING AT TIMES TO 15-20 KT. WINDS
DIMINISH AFTR SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
LATE SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED ALONG WITH PERIODS OF
IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRNT WILL PUSH FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS MORNG WITH WLY FLOW
LEFT IN ITS WAKE. SFC HI PRES THEN SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W TDA THRU
FRI. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE W/NW THRU THE PERIOD. DID HOIST A SCA
FOR NRN CSTL WTRS TNGT WHERE 20-25 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO A
TROF OF LO PRES SLIDING THRU AND SUBSEQUENT CAA SURGE. MAY COME
CLOSE TO CRITERIA OVR THE NRN BAY AS WELL SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR...MAY ALSO BE BRIEF ENUF TO HANDLE WITH A MWS IF NEC.
OTWS...SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS MAINLY 3-4 FT WITH WAVES OVR THE BAY 2-3
FT. SIMILAR CONDS INTO THU AND FRI WITH JUST A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
WINDS EACH DAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A CSTL LO THAT WILL TRACK UP
NEAR THE CAROLINA CST THIS WEEKEND. CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE
DICTATED BY THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS LO...FOR WHICH THERE`S
STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...ALB/MAM
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 171145
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
645 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY INTO
FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CDFNT WELL TO THE E AND OFFSHORE ATTM. DRYING WNW FLO
DEVELOPING...AND WILL PROVIDE A DECENT MID DEC DAY ACRS THE FA.
RESIDUAL MOISTURE LINGERS ATTM IN FORM OF ST AND PATCHY FOG...ESP
E OF I 95 TO THE CST. MIXING HAS SCOURED OUT MUCH OF THAT LO LVL
MOISTURE (WELL) INLAND...AND XPCD TO DO SO INTO THE MID MRNG HRS.
A PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON THE WAY...W/ HI TEMPS IN THE L/M50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY/ZONAL FLO WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH FRI. WK SFC HI PRES
WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE MDATLC RGN FM THE W. A COUPLE OF WK
SYSTEMS ALOFT TRACKING W-E IN FAST FLO ALOFT THROUGH END OF THE
WK...XPCG SKY CONDS FM MSTLY CLR TO PCLDY. HI TEMPS THU AND FRI
RANGING FM THE L40S N TO ARND 50F S. LO TEMPS MNLY RANGING FM THE
U20S TO M30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONTINUE TO FAVOR A BLENDED SOLUTION LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF AND
ITS MEMBER ENSEMBLES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRIMARY
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS IN REGARDS TO THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER
PATTERN AND THE EVENTUAL STORM TRACK OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COAST LATER FRIDAY. WHILE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE BEEN LITERALLY ALL OVER THE MAP WITH THIS
SYSTEM, THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE OPERATIONAL
CANADIAN REMAIN THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM.

MODELS CAN AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL BE
RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE AREA TO BEGIN THE FORECAST PERIOD FRIDAY
NIGHT. ALSO WIDESPREAD CONSENSUS IN INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AS DEVELOPING UPPER
DISTURBANCE SLIDES NE FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS THE
MID-SOUTH BY 12Z SATURDAY, WITH SFC CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING FRIDAY
NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST. DESPITE SOME CONTINUED TEMPORAL
DIFFERENCES, MODELS ARE MORE OR LESS COMING INTO CONSENSUS WITH
DEPICTION OF A LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER SYSTEM. THE RESULTANT STORM
TRACK WOULD TRACK SFC LOW ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST EARLY SUNDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE AND ANALOGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
OVERRUNNING PCPN QUICKLY INCREASING, WITH LIKELY POPS APPEARING
REASONABLE BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. GIVEN THE TRACK AND THE TRANSIENT, RELATIVELY WEAK SFC
HIGH TO THE NORTH, STILL APPEARS TO BE JUST A COLD RAIN FOR OUR
AREA (HAVE ADDED SLGT CHC IP FOR ABT NW 1/2 HALF OF FA LT FRI
NGT/SAT MRNG GIVEN MDL SOUNDINGS SHOWING IP PROFILE OVR INLAND
PORTIONS OF FA AS PCPN ARRIVES). HAVE HELD ON TO SOME SNOW SHRA
MENTION SAT NIGHT OVER INTERIOR ZONES AS FEW SNOWFLAKES WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS PCPN COMES TO AN END SATURDAY NIGHT/ERY SUN MORNING.
OTHERWISE, PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END QUICKLY INLAND AS SYSTEM
PUSHES E-NE OFFSHORE SUNDAY AFTN/EVE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD, REACHING ABOVE CLIMO BY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM, WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...COLD FRNT HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE WITH SOME LINGERING LO-
LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS LEADING TO AREAS OF FOG/LO
STRATUS. THIS IS CURRENTLY MAINLY CONFINED TO EXTREME SE VA/NE
NC...WHERE IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED BY 13-14Z. W/NW FLOW THEN
CONTINUES INTO THE AFTN HRS...GUSTING AT TIMES TO 15-20 KT. WINDS
DIMINISH AFTR SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
LATE SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED ALONG WITH PERIODS OF
IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRNT WILL PUSH FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS MORNG WITH WLY FLOW
LEFT IN ITS WAKE. SFC HI PRES THEN SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W TDA THRU
FRI. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE W/NW THRU THE PERIOD. DID HOIST A SCA
FOR NRN CSTL WTRS TNGT WHERE 20-25 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO A
TROF OF LO PRES SLIDING THRU AND SUBSEQUENT CAA SURGE. MAY COME
CLOSE TO CRITERIA OVR THE NRN BAY AS WELL SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR...MAY ALSO BE BRIEF ENUF TO HANDLE WITH A MWS IF NEC.
OTWS...SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS MAINLY 3-4 FT WITH WAVES OVR THE BAY 2-3
FT. SIMILAR CONDS INTO THU AND FRI WITH JUST A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
WINDS EACH DAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A CSTL LO THAT WILL TRACK UP
NEAR THE CAROLINA CST THIS WEEKEND. CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE
DICTATED BY THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS LO...FOR WHICH THERE`S
STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...ALB/MAM
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS






000
FXUS61 KRNK 171120
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
620 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT RESULTING IN OVERALL DRIER WEATHER UNDER
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE MOISTURE STARTS TO RETURN AHEAD
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH A
MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE DRIER WEATHER RETURNS ON SUNDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR AT 85H NOW CROSSING THE BLUE RIDGE IN
WAKE OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW WELL TO THE EAST. LOW CLOUDS WITHIN
THE COLD ADVECTION ALSO SPILLING OUT TO THE FOOTHILLS...AND EXPECT THIS
TREND TO PREVAIL THIS MORNING...WITH LOW DECK WEST AND PARTLY SUNNY AT
TIMES EAST. AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE UNDERNEATH THE COLDEST POCKET AT
85H ALSO SLIDING TOWARD THE WESTERN SLOPES...AND THIS IN CONJUNCTION
WITH PIVOTING SHORTWAVE ENERGY UNDER THE 5H TROUGH TO THE NORTH LIKELY
TO KEEP SOME UPSLOPE PRECIP GOING ESPCLY NW INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
MODELS ALSO SHOW THAT MOISTURE IS QUITE SHALLOW WHICH COULD LEAD TO
SOME POCKETS OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE EARLY ON ESPCLY RIDGES WHERE
TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSER TO FREEZING. THUS BUMPED UP POPS TO HIGH
CHANCE/LOW LIKELYS SE WVA AND SPILLED SOME LOW POPS EAST THIS MORNING
GIVEN THE STRONG NW FLOW. COULD SEE AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW AS WELL FAR
NW OTRW SURFACES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MANY PROBLEMS.
HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO COVER POSSIBLE HIGH ELEVATION ICING
ISSUES WITH AN SPS EARLY ON. EXPECT MOISTURE TO SLOWLY DECREASE
FROM EAST TO WEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH DOWNSLOPE DRIVEN CLEARING
EAST AND SOME BREAKS WEST TO THE NEW RIVER. BANKED UP LOW CLOUDS
THOUGH LIKELY TO PERSIST WESTERN SLOPES PER CONTINUED DEEP NW
FLOW THAT WILL KEEP THINGS QUITE BLUSTERY WEST AND BREEZY EAST.
RANGE OF HIGH TEMPS FROM UPPER 30S/AROUND 40 NW TO MID 50S SE
LOOKS ON TAP WITH DOWNSLOPE AIDED WARMING EAST WHERE WILL BE
WEAKENING COOL ADVECTION WITH TIME.

UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS BY TO THE NE OVERNIGHT ALLOWING WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TO GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER FAST BUT
ZONAL CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT LIKELY TO BRING SOME SHEARED MID/HIGH
CLOUDS IN AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING ESPCLY SOUTH BEFORE FADING
SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT PER GUIDANCE RH SECTIONS. OTRW STILL EXPECTING
NW FLOW TO KEEP LOW CLOUDS BANKED UP AGAINST THE WESTERN SLOPES
WITH PERHAPS ADDED FREEZING DRIZZLE IN SPOTS BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY
WONT INCLUDE FOR NOW. LOW CLOUDS COULD AGAIN SPILL OUT TO THE BLUE
RIDGE LATE WITH MAINLY PC ELSW FOR HIGH CLOUDS. COMBO OF ADDED
MIXING AND CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP...WITH UNIFORM UPPER
20S/LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FEW MID 20S VALLEYS PENDING
CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

EXPECT THURSDAY TO BEGIN WITH FAIR WEATHER EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...
BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE OVERCAST WEST OF THE RIDGE THANKS TO NW
UPSLOPE FLOW AND A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...WHICH IS SHOWN NICELY BY BUFKIT MODEL
SOUNDINGS. JUST AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ON THE WAY OUT WE
TRANSITION TO SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. MODELS CONTINUE TO JUST
WHEN THIS SHALLOW MOISTURE IS DISSIPATING...MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
SPREAD OVER THE AREA AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
IN ZONAL UPPER FLOW. VARIATIONS ON THIS THEME FOR THURSDAY HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISED BY GUIDANCE FOR THE PAST FEW RUNS. BELIEVE WE WILL LACK
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO GENERATE ANYTHING MORE THAN A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY
FOR THE RIDGES SO WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS AT OR BELOW SLIGHT
CHANCE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. FAIR CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES BY TO OUR NORTH AND
STARTS WORKING ITS WAY DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS A WEAK WEDGE.

OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WE
HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES FROM THE
GULF COAST THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEKEND. OVERALL...THE LOW
AMPLITUDE SPLIT FLOW UPPER PATTERN IS NOT VERY CONDUCIVE TO
SUPPORTING A MAJOR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A TRAILING NORTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS NEVER ABLE TO
CATCH AND PHASE WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE...WHICH PREVENTS
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROF TO GENERATE A *MILLER A*
TYPE COASTAL LOW. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR THE LOW TO SCOOT
BY TO OUR SOUTH AND DELIVER THE BULK OF ITS OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION TO US SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.

PRECIPITATION TYPE IS GOING TO BE A MAJOR CHALLENGE WITH THIS SYSTEM
AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARGINAL OVER THE AREA AND THE LOW WILL NOT
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH.
EXPECT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO BE FOR A
MIX AT THE START SATURDAY MORNING...TO MAINLY RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME
FREEZING RAIN FOR THE PIEDMONT WITH THE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
HOLDING SHALLOW COLD AIR NEAR THE SURFACE...BACK TO MIX SATURDAY
NIGHT AS PRECIPITATION LESSENS. BLUE RIDGE WEST WILL SEE THINGS
START AS SNOW...THEN GO TO A MIX...THEN BACK TO SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THINGS WINDING DOWN. THE BEST CHANCE OF A MOSTLY SNOW EVENT
SEEMS TO BE THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES ON INTO THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS
WHERE A SLUSHY COUPLE OF INCHES IS POSSIBLE. MANY DETAILS HAVE YET
TO EMERGE WITH THIS SYSTEM SO EXPECT PRECIPITATION TYPE AND
POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS TO CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT AND
THINGS COME INTO FOCUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST TUESDAY...

LATEST 00Z ECMWF SHOWS WEAK LOW PRESSURE SLIDING NE ALONG THE N
CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN AXIS OF DEFORMATION PRECIP
INLAND ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ESPCLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER
ADDED QPF LOOKS RATHER LIGHT AND MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AT
THIS POINT WHERE LIKELY MORE LIQUID NATURE TO START THE EVENING.

MAJORITY OF THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP SHOULD BE EXITING TO EAST
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS MOST SEEING THINGS TAPER OFF AS
A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW AS COLDER AIR FINALLY WRAPS IN. HOWEVER
THIS PENDING LATER TIMING AND MODEL TRENDS WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT
AND THE DEGREE OF COVERAGE OF THE PRECIP SATURDAY EVENING.

BY SUNDAY...THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS THAT THE
AREA WILL BE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH ENOUGH COLD AIR
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A STIFF NORTHWEST WIND TRAJECTORY FOR
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WEST TO CONCLUDE THE EVENT.

BY THE TIME WE GET TO SUNDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE LIFTING OUT OF THE REGION...AND
SUB FREEZING AIR WILL HAVE WRAPPED IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM AT THE
LOWER LEVELS. ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION HAS A GREATER CHANCE TO
BE SNOW OR RAIN WITHOUT THE PRESENCE OF A WARM NOSE ALOFT. BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE PREFERRED AREA OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND
NEIGHBORING PARTS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA WILL GRADUALLY ERODE AS
DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE REGION AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
GRADUALLY BACKS WEST TO SOUTHWEST.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE THE REGION
WITH LIGHT WINDS...LIMITED CLOUD COVER AND NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY. THE GFS
IS QUICK TO BRING THE COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKE REGION. THIS
SYSTEM IS KEPT DISTINCT FROM A DISTURBANCE OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS THAT HAS LITTLE OR NO INTERACTION WITH THE GREAT LAKES
TROUGH THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF OUR FORECAST PERIOD. FOLLOWING
THIS SOLUTION YIELD LIMITED COVERAGE OF RAIN OR SNOW REACHING THE
WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY TUESDAY. THE
ECMWF SOLUTION ALSO HAS THE TWO SYSTEMS DISTINCT THROUGH
TUESDAY...BUT FOR A DIFFERENT REASON. THIS SOLUTIONS IS FARTHER WEST
WITH THE COASTAL SYSTEM...AND WRAPS MOISTURE...AND A WARM
NOSE...INTO OUR AREA DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY TUESDAY. THE GREAT
LAKES SYSTEM IS NOT AS PROGRESSIVE...AND HAS THE TIME TO ELONGATE MORE
SOUTH INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. IF THE ECMWF IS ON
TRACK...THE AREA WILL HAVE A GENEROUS COVERAGE OF A WINTRY MIX
MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. OUR
FORECAST AT THIS POINT WILL RESEMBLE MORE THAT OF THE GFS.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE TRICKY. WHILE WE ARE
EXPECTING A GENERAL TREND TOWARDS MILDER TEMPERATURES EACH DAY PAST
TUESDAY...HOW MUCH...AND WHERE ANY SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW
ARE DEPOSITED WILL PLAY A FACTOR IN BOTH THE HIGHS AND THE LOWS. AT
THIS POINT...AM LEANING ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE...WITH SOME
ALLOTMENT TOWARDS EVEN MORE COOLER WHERE...AT LEAST NOW...THE BEST
CHANCE OF SNOW IS EXPECTED. AT THIS POINT...WILL NOT TOUCH THE FOG
POTENTIAL ONCE WE START TO GET INTO THE RETURN FLOW SIDE OF THE
SURFACE HIGH. ALTHOUGH...AS MILDER AIR STARTS ADVECTING ACROSS ANY
REMAINING SNOWPACK...THE DEW POINT OF THAT AIR WILL LIKELY BE MILDER
THAN THE TEMPERATURE OF THE SNOW IT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 555 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

STRONG NW FLOW CONTINUING TO PUSH LOWER CIGS FARTHER EAST EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH LOW END VFR OUT EAST TO KLYH/KDAN AND MVFR AT
KBCB/KROA WITH IFR OR WORSE KBLF/KLWB. THIS TREND LIKELY TO
PREVAIL THROUGH MID OR LATE MORNING BEFORE THINGS SCATTER OUT IN
THE EAST AND CLOUDS RETROGRADE WESTWARD NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE BY
AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE BRIEFLY DECREASES. STILL APPEARS THAT KBCB WILL
BE GOING TO VFR CIGS AFTER 16Z/11 AM...THEN SCATTERING OUT IN THE
AFTERNOON. CIGS TO STAY IFR TO LIFR AT KBLF/KLWB BUT RISE TO MVFR
THIS AFTERNOON. MAY SEE SCATTERED CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON BUT 00Z
NAM/CMC STILL HANGING ONTO THE LOWER CIGS INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
ATTM...WILL LEAVE IT SCATTERED FROM LATE AFTERNOON-06Z THU AND
THEN LOWER CIGS BACK TO AT LEAST MVFR FROM KBCB WEST IF NOT WORSE
AT KBLF/KLWB LATER THU NIGHT. SOME SPOTTY -RA/-SN OR -DZ POSSIBLE
AS WELL AROUND KBLF/KLWB EARLY THIS MORNING BUT NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF VSBY REDUCTIONS OUTSIDE OF DENSE FOG AT KBLF
THIS MORNING.

WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AT TIMES FROM THE WNW ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS ESPCLY THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS POSSIBLE AT
KROA/KBLF AND KBCB. THEN WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH BY LATE
AFTERNOON TODAY WITH ONLY SOME GUSTS LINGERING ALONG THE RIDGES
INTO TONIGHT.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK RELATIVELY BENIGN...THOUGH LOWER MVFR CIGS
WILL LINGER IN THE WEST THU.

THE FRI NIGHT-SAT SYSTEM NOW HAS TRENDED WEAKER BUT WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED AS IT LOOKS TO STILL BRING A PERIOD OF SUB VFR
WINTRY WEATHER ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST SAT.

AVIATION INTERESTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION AS LATER
FORECASTS BECOME AVAILABLE. THIS WILL LIKELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON AIR
TRAVEL OVER THE WEEKEND...FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
CAROLINAS NORTH TO THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...DS/JH
AVIATION...DS/JH/KK/WP



000
FXUS61 KRNK 171120
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
620 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT RESULTING IN OVERALL DRIER WEATHER UNDER
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE MOISTURE STARTS TO RETURN AHEAD
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH A
MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE DRIER WEATHER RETURNS ON SUNDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR AT 85H NOW CROSSING THE BLUE RIDGE IN
WAKE OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW WELL TO THE EAST. LOW CLOUDS WITHIN
THE COLD ADVECTION ALSO SPILLING OUT TO THE FOOTHILLS...AND EXPECT THIS
TREND TO PREVAIL THIS MORNING...WITH LOW DECK WEST AND PARTLY SUNNY AT
TIMES EAST. AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE UNDERNEATH THE COLDEST POCKET AT
85H ALSO SLIDING TOWARD THE WESTERN SLOPES...AND THIS IN CONJUNCTION
WITH PIVOTING SHORTWAVE ENERGY UNDER THE 5H TROUGH TO THE NORTH LIKELY
TO KEEP SOME UPSLOPE PRECIP GOING ESPCLY NW INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
MODELS ALSO SHOW THAT MOISTURE IS QUITE SHALLOW WHICH COULD LEAD TO
SOME POCKETS OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE EARLY ON ESPCLY RIDGES WHERE
TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSER TO FREEZING. THUS BUMPED UP POPS TO HIGH
CHANCE/LOW LIKELYS SE WVA AND SPILLED SOME LOW POPS EAST THIS MORNING
GIVEN THE STRONG NW FLOW. COULD SEE AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW AS WELL FAR
NW OTRW SURFACES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MANY PROBLEMS.
HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO COVER POSSIBLE HIGH ELEVATION ICING
ISSUES WITH AN SPS EARLY ON. EXPECT MOISTURE TO SLOWLY DECREASE
FROM EAST TO WEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH DOWNSLOPE DRIVEN CLEARING
EAST AND SOME BREAKS WEST TO THE NEW RIVER. BANKED UP LOW CLOUDS
THOUGH LIKELY TO PERSIST WESTERN SLOPES PER CONTINUED DEEP NW
FLOW THAT WILL KEEP THINGS QUITE BLUSTERY WEST AND BREEZY EAST.
RANGE OF HIGH TEMPS FROM UPPER 30S/AROUND 40 NW TO MID 50S SE
LOOKS ON TAP WITH DOWNSLOPE AIDED WARMING EAST WHERE WILL BE
WEAKENING COOL ADVECTION WITH TIME.

UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS BY TO THE NE OVERNIGHT ALLOWING WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TO GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER FAST BUT
ZONAL CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT LIKELY TO BRING SOME SHEARED MID/HIGH
CLOUDS IN AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING ESPCLY SOUTH BEFORE FADING
SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT PER GUIDANCE RH SECTIONS. OTRW STILL EXPECTING
NW FLOW TO KEEP LOW CLOUDS BANKED UP AGAINST THE WESTERN SLOPES
WITH PERHAPS ADDED FREEZING DRIZZLE IN SPOTS BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY
WONT INCLUDE FOR NOW. LOW CLOUDS COULD AGAIN SPILL OUT TO THE BLUE
RIDGE LATE WITH MAINLY PC ELSW FOR HIGH CLOUDS. COMBO OF ADDED
MIXING AND CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP...WITH UNIFORM UPPER
20S/LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FEW MID 20S VALLEYS PENDING
CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

EXPECT THURSDAY TO BEGIN WITH FAIR WEATHER EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...
BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE OVERCAST WEST OF THE RIDGE THANKS TO NW
UPSLOPE FLOW AND A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...WHICH IS SHOWN NICELY BY BUFKIT MODEL
SOUNDINGS. JUST AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ON THE WAY OUT WE
TRANSITION TO SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. MODELS CONTINUE TO JUST
WHEN THIS SHALLOW MOISTURE IS DISSIPATING...MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
SPREAD OVER THE AREA AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
IN ZONAL UPPER FLOW. VARIATIONS ON THIS THEME FOR THURSDAY HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISED BY GUIDANCE FOR THE PAST FEW RUNS. BELIEVE WE WILL LACK
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO GENERATE ANYTHING MORE THAN A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY
FOR THE RIDGES SO WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS AT OR BELOW SLIGHT
CHANCE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. FAIR CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES BY TO OUR NORTH AND
STARTS WORKING ITS WAY DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS A WEAK WEDGE.

OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WE
HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES FROM THE
GULF COAST THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEKEND. OVERALL...THE LOW
AMPLITUDE SPLIT FLOW UPPER PATTERN IS NOT VERY CONDUCIVE TO
SUPPORTING A MAJOR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A TRAILING NORTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS NEVER ABLE TO
CATCH AND PHASE WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE...WHICH PREVENTS
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROF TO GENERATE A *MILLER A*
TYPE COASTAL LOW. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR THE LOW TO SCOOT
BY TO OUR SOUTH AND DELIVER THE BULK OF ITS OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION TO US SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.

PRECIPITATION TYPE IS GOING TO BE A MAJOR CHALLENGE WITH THIS SYSTEM
AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARGINAL OVER THE AREA AND THE LOW WILL NOT
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH.
EXPECT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO BE FOR A
MIX AT THE START SATURDAY MORNING...TO MAINLY RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME
FREEZING RAIN FOR THE PIEDMONT WITH THE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
HOLDING SHALLOW COLD AIR NEAR THE SURFACE...BACK TO MIX SATURDAY
NIGHT AS PRECIPITATION LESSENS. BLUE RIDGE WEST WILL SEE THINGS
START AS SNOW...THEN GO TO A MIX...THEN BACK TO SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THINGS WINDING DOWN. THE BEST CHANCE OF A MOSTLY SNOW EVENT
SEEMS TO BE THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES ON INTO THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS
WHERE A SLUSHY COUPLE OF INCHES IS POSSIBLE. MANY DETAILS HAVE YET
TO EMERGE WITH THIS SYSTEM SO EXPECT PRECIPITATION TYPE AND
POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS TO CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT AND
THINGS COME INTO FOCUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST TUESDAY...

LATEST 00Z ECMWF SHOWS WEAK LOW PRESSURE SLIDING NE ALONG THE N
CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN AXIS OF DEFORMATION PRECIP
INLAND ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ESPCLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER
ADDED QPF LOOKS RATHER LIGHT AND MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AT
THIS POINT WHERE LIKELY MORE LIQUID NATURE TO START THE EVENING.

MAJORITY OF THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP SHOULD BE EXITING TO EAST
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS MOST SEEING THINGS TAPER OFF AS
A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW AS COLDER AIR FINALLY WRAPS IN. HOWEVER
THIS PENDING LATER TIMING AND MODEL TRENDS WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT
AND THE DEGREE OF COVERAGE OF THE PRECIP SATURDAY EVENING.

BY SUNDAY...THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS THAT THE
AREA WILL BE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH ENOUGH COLD AIR
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A STIFF NORTHWEST WIND TRAJECTORY FOR
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WEST TO CONCLUDE THE EVENT.

BY THE TIME WE GET TO SUNDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE LIFTING OUT OF THE REGION...AND
SUB FREEZING AIR WILL HAVE WRAPPED IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM AT THE
LOWER LEVELS. ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION HAS A GREATER CHANCE TO
BE SNOW OR RAIN WITHOUT THE PRESENCE OF A WARM NOSE ALOFT. BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE PREFERRED AREA OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND
NEIGHBORING PARTS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA WILL GRADUALLY ERODE AS
DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE REGION AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
GRADUALLY BACKS WEST TO SOUTHWEST.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE THE REGION
WITH LIGHT WINDS...LIMITED CLOUD COVER AND NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY. THE GFS
IS QUICK TO BRING THE COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKE REGION. THIS
SYSTEM IS KEPT DISTINCT FROM A DISTURBANCE OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS THAT HAS LITTLE OR NO INTERACTION WITH THE GREAT LAKES
TROUGH THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF OUR FORECAST PERIOD. FOLLOWING
THIS SOLUTION YIELD LIMITED COVERAGE OF RAIN OR SNOW REACHING THE
WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY TUESDAY. THE
ECMWF SOLUTION ALSO HAS THE TWO SYSTEMS DISTINCT THROUGH
TUESDAY...BUT FOR A DIFFERENT REASON. THIS SOLUTIONS IS FARTHER WEST
WITH THE COASTAL SYSTEM...AND WRAPS MOISTURE...AND A WARM
NOSE...INTO OUR AREA DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY TUESDAY. THE GREAT
LAKES SYSTEM IS NOT AS PROGRESSIVE...AND HAS THE TIME TO ELONGATE MORE
SOUTH INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. IF THE ECMWF IS ON
TRACK...THE AREA WILL HAVE A GENEROUS COVERAGE OF A WINTRY MIX
MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. OUR
FORECAST AT THIS POINT WILL RESEMBLE MORE THAT OF THE GFS.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE TRICKY. WHILE WE ARE
EXPECTING A GENERAL TREND TOWARDS MILDER TEMPERATURES EACH DAY PAST
TUESDAY...HOW MUCH...AND WHERE ANY SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW
ARE DEPOSITED WILL PLAY A FACTOR IN BOTH THE HIGHS AND THE LOWS. AT
THIS POINT...AM LEANING ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE...WITH SOME
ALLOTMENT TOWARDS EVEN MORE COOLER WHERE...AT LEAST NOW...THE BEST
CHANCE OF SNOW IS EXPECTED. AT THIS POINT...WILL NOT TOUCH THE FOG
POTENTIAL ONCE WE START TO GET INTO THE RETURN FLOW SIDE OF THE
SURFACE HIGH. ALTHOUGH...AS MILDER AIR STARTS ADVECTING ACROSS ANY
REMAINING SNOWPACK...THE DEW POINT OF THAT AIR WILL LIKELY BE MILDER
THAN THE TEMPERATURE OF THE SNOW IT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 555 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

STRONG NW FLOW CONTINUING TO PUSH LOWER CIGS FARTHER EAST EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH LOW END VFR OUT EAST TO KLYH/KDAN AND MVFR AT
KBCB/KROA WITH IFR OR WORSE KBLF/KLWB. THIS TREND LIKELY TO
PREVAIL THROUGH MID OR LATE MORNING BEFORE THINGS SCATTER OUT IN
THE EAST AND CLOUDS RETROGRADE WESTWARD NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE BY
AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE BRIEFLY DECREASES. STILL APPEARS THAT KBCB WILL
BE GOING TO VFR CIGS AFTER 16Z/11 AM...THEN SCATTERING OUT IN THE
AFTERNOON. CIGS TO STAY IFR TO LIFR AT KBLF/KLWB BUT RISE TO MVFR
THIS AFTERNOON. MAY SEE SCATTERED CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON BUT 00Z
NAM/CMC STILL HANGING ONTO THE LOWER CIGS INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
ATTM...WILL LEAVE IT SCATTERED FROM LATE AFTERNOON-06Z THU AND
THEN LOWER CIGS BACK TO AT LEAST MVFR FROM KBCB WEST IF NOT WORSE
AT KBLF/KLWB LATER THU NIGHT. SOME SPOTTY -RA/-SN OR -DZ POSSIBLE
AS WELL AROUND KBLF/KLWB EARLY THIS MORNING BUT NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF VSBY REDUCTIONS OUTSIDE OF DENSE FOG AT KBLF
THIS MORNING.

WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AT TIMES FROM THE WNW ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS ESPCLY THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS POSSIBLE AT
KROA/KBLF AND KBCB. THEN WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH BY LATE
AFTERNOON TODAY WITH ONLY SOME GUSTS LINGERING ALONG THE RIDGES
INTO TONIGHT.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK RELATIVELY BENIGN...THOUGH LOWER MVFR CIGS
WILL LINGER IN THE WEST THU.

THE FRI NIGHT-SAT SYSTEM NOW HAS TRENDED WEAKER BUT WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED AS IT LOOKS TO STILL BRING A PERIOD OF SUB VFR
WINTRY WEATHER ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST SAT.

AVIATION INTERESTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION AS LATER
FORECASTS BECOME AVAILABLE. THIS WILL LIKELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON AIR
TRAVEL OVER THE WEEKEND...FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
CAROLINAS NORTH TO THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...DS/JH
AVIATION...DS/JH/KK/WP




000
FXUS61 KLWX 171050
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
550 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DENSE FOG DISSIPATING THIS MORNING...MAINLY IMPACTING WESTERN
SUBURB AREAS OF DC METRO. HAVE CANCELLED THE DENSE FOG ADV FOR
LOUDOUN AND MONTGOMERY WITH OBS REPORTING AT LEAST 3 MILES VIS
NOW. FORECAST ON TRACK WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA UNDER THE
ADV TO GO NO LATER THAN 13Z...POSSIBLY EVEN CANCELLING THE ADV 1
HOUR SOONER. SFC TROUGH SLOWLY SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING...INCREASING THE WESTERLY FLOW ALONG WITH INJECTING IN
DRIER AIR. FOG SHOULD BE DISSIPATED COMPLETELY BY MID MORNING WITH
THE TROUGH THROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO BUILD IN AND A
DRIER AIRMASS MOVING IN. AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN...INCREASING
WESTERLY FLOW WILL SEE GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH PSBL DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS.

OTHER CONCERN THIS MORNING IS PCPN FOR THE AREAS WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT. 10Z RADAR IMAGERY AND OBS INDICATING LIGHT PCPN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND WEAK SHORTWAVE POSITIONED OVER
WESTERN WV/PA. INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD WORK TO GENERATE
SCT UPSLOPE SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHC THIS MORNING...THEN
TAPERING OFF DURING THE AFTN. COLD AIR HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE
IN...AND AS SUCH CAN EXPECT MIX RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...WITH ALL SNOW
AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. THE PCPN IS VERY LIGHT IN NATURE...AND
ONLY A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW AT MOST IS FORECASTED.

FOR TEMPS TODAY...CAA FAIRLY WEAK AS TROUGH ALOFT TURNS MORE
ZONAL...KEEPING THE COLDER TEMPS TO THE NORTH. THE BETTER SHOT OF
CAA NOT EXPECTED TILL TONIGHT. SIDED MORE WITH A WARMER MAV SOLUTION
AS DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT FOR MOST OF THE CWA WITH SKIES SCATTERING
OUT SEEMS THE MORE REASONABLE SOLUTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH THE AREA REMAINING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY DURING
THIS TIME. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AS A TROUGH PIVOTS
THROUGH...FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TOMORROW. OVERALL
EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS THOUGH FOR MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT WEST OF
THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WHICH COULD SEE FLURRIES THIS EVENING. DESPITE
DECENT FORCING ALOFT WITH THE MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES DURING THIS
PERIOD...LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP ANYTHING FROM FORMING...WITH THE
ONLY IMPACT FROM THE ENERGY THUS BEING INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

THE STRONGER CAA FINALLY DIPS SOUTH TONIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW DROPPING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. SIDED MORE WITH
THE MET FOR LOWS AND CONTINUED WITH THE TREND OF LEANING TO THE MAV
FOR THE HIGHS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RDGG OVER CWFA SFC UP THRU H5 FRI-FRI NGT. THUS KEPT BOTH PDS DRY.
SHUD HV PLENTY OF SUN DURING THE DAY. MSTR INCREASES FM THE SW AT
NGT...SPCLY AFTR MIDNGT. WL HV SKIES BCMG MOCLDY IN VA...NE OF PTMC
RIVER MAY AVG OUT PTCLDY.

GDNC CONTINUING TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION THRU THE WKND...WHICH
TAKES AN OPEN SRN STREAM WV WELL SOUTH OF THE CWFA SAT. LTST ECMWF
MUCH LESS DVLPD WRT CSTL LOW. NONETHELESS...THIS TRACK...AND A NRN
STREAM S/WV...WL BE SUFFICIENT TO TOSS LGT PCPN THIS WAY. COLD AIR
WL BE MARGINAL AT BEST...SUGGESTING THERE MAY BE A DIURNAL AND ELEV
COMPONENT TO PTYPE. STILL HV SNOWY/MIXED PDS...SPCLY W OF THE I-95
CRRDR. THE WETTEST PD MAY TURN OUT TO BE SAT NGT...WHICH WUD BE ABT
WHEN LOW WL TRANSFER ITS ENERGY TO THE COAST...AND WE/LL ALSO HV PVA
ALOFT. AM KEEPING SCHC/CHC POPS INTO SUNDAY...MORE OUT OF RESPECT TO
ECMWF...AND THE TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFS THAT LINGER.

SUBSIDENCE BLDS BHD THIS SYSTEM FOR SUN NGT-MON NGT. H5 FLOW STILL
QUITE ZNL...SO THERE WONT BE A LOT OF COLD AIR AVBL. HV TEMPS ONLY A
CPL DEGF BLO AVG. THERE MAY BE YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM ON THE
HORIZON BY DAY 7. WL BE GENERIC ATTM...AS THERE/S A LOT OF WX TO GET
THROUGH FIRST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALL TAF SITES ON THE IMPROVING TRACK THIS MORNING AS KIAD AND KDCA
HAVE BOTH INCREASED TO MVFR. VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINING
SITES. SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS AT KIAD AND KDCA BY 12Z WITH VFR
THEN IN PLACE DURING THE DAY TODAY.

LIGHT FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST AFTER
DAYBREAK...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS MIXING IN BETWEEN 14-16Z.
GUSTS END BY 00Z TONIGHT...WITH W FLOW CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. OCNL GUSTS PSBL KDCA
OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAF.

VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

VFR FRI-FRI NGT. FLGT RESTRICTIONS SHUD OVERSPREAD TERMINALS SAT...
AND LINGER INTO ELY SUN. PCPN MAY BE ON THE LGT SIDE...WHICH WUD
SUGGEST THAT MVFR MAY PREVAIL...W/ PDS OF IFR. PTYPE STILL IN QSTN.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA IN EFFECT FOR TODAY FOR ALL WATERS WITH INCREASING WEST
WINDS...GUSTING UP TO 20 KTS. THE SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE COULD BE PERIODS TONIGHT WHERE
THE WINDS DROP BELOW 18 KTS...BUT THE WINDOW SMALL ENOUGH TO WARRANT
THE CONTINUATION OF THE SCA. THE SCA REMAINS ON ALL WATERS THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF THE GUSTS REMAINING ABV 18
KTS OVER JUST THE NORTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY MAINTAIN THE SCA THERE
TILL THURS EVENING.

HIPRES OVER THE WATERS FRI. WK LOPRES PASSING WELL S OVER THE WKND.
WHILE PCPN XPCTD TO REACH WATERS...THE GRADIENT SHUD BE ON THE LGT
SIDE. FOR THAT REASON...NO FLAGS XPCTD ATTM.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVEL DEPARTURES DOWN TO A FOOT OR SLIGHTLY LESS. THAT TREND
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ040-
     051>053-501-502.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>532-538>540.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ533>537-541>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/HTS
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...SEARS/HTS
MARINE...SEARS/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 171050
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
550 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DENSE FOG DISSIPATING THIS MORNING...MAINLY IMPACTING WESTERN
SUBURB AREAS OF DC METRO. HAVE CANCELLED THE DENSE FOG ADV FOR
LOUDOUN AND MONTGOMERY WITH OBS REPORTING AT LEAST 3 MILES VIS
NOW. FORECAST ON TRACK WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA UNDER THE
ADV TO GO NO LATER THAN 13Z...POSSIBLY EVEN CANCELLING THE ADV 1
HOUR SOONER. SFC TROUGH SLOWLY SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING...INCREASING THE WESTERLY FLOW ALONG WITH INJECTING IN
DRIER AIR. FOG SHOULD BE DISSIPATED COMPLETELY BY MID MORNING WITH
THE TROUGH THROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO BUILD IN AND A
DRIER AIRMASS MOVING IN. AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN...INCREASING
WESTERLY FLOW WILL SEE GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH PSBL DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS.

OTHER CONCERN THIS MORNING IS PCPN FOR THE AREAS WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT. 10Z RADAR IMAGERY AND OBS INDICATING LIGHT PCPN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND WEAK SHORTWAVE POSITIONED OVER
WESTERN WV/PA. INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD WORK TO GENERATE
SCT UPSLOPE SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHC THIS MORNING...THEN
TAPERING OFF DURING THE AFTN. COLD AIR HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE
IN...AND AS SUCH CAN EXPECT MIX RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...WITH ALL SNOW
AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. THE PCPN IS VERY LIGHT IN NATURE...AND
ONLY A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW AT MOST IS FORECASTED.

FOR TEMPS TODAY...CAA FAIRLY WEAK AS TROUGH ALOFT TURNS MORE
ZONAL...KEEPING THE COLDER TEMPS TO THE NORTH. THE BETTER SHOT OF
CAA NOT EXPECTED TILL TONIGHT. SIDED MORE WITH A WARMER MAV SOLUTION
AS DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT FOR MOST OF THE CWA WITH SKIES SCATTERING
OUT SEEMS THE MORE REASONABLE SOLUTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH THE AREA REMAINING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY DURING
THIS TIME. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AS A TROUGH PIVOTS
THROUGH...FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TOMORROW. OVERALL
EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS THOUGH FOR MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT WEST OF
THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WHICH COULD SEE FLURRIES THIS EVENING. DESPITE
DECENT FORCING ALOFT WITH THE MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES DURING THIS
PERIOD...LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP ANYTHING FROM FORMING...WITH THE
ONLY IMPACT FROM THE ENERGY THUS BEING INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

THE STRONGER CAA FINALLY DIPS SOUTH TONIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW DROPPING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. SIDED MORE WITH
THE MET FOR LOWS AND CONTINUED WITH THE TREND OF LEANING TO THE MAV
FOR THE HIGHS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RDGG OVER CWFA SFC UP THRU H5 FRI-FRI NGT. THUS KEPT BOTH PDS DRY.
SHUD HV PLENTY OF SUN DURING THE DAY. MSTR INCREASES FM THE SW AT
NGT...SPCLY AFTR MIDNGT. WL HV SKIES BCMG MOCLDY IN VA...NE OF PTMC
RIVER MAY AVG OUT PTCLDY.

GDNC CONTINUING TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION THRU THE WKND...WHICH
TAKES AN OPEN SRN STREAM WV WELL SOUTH OF THE CWFA SAT. LTST ECMWF
MUCH LESS DVLPD WRT CSTL LOW. NONETHELESS...THIS TRACK...AND A NRN
STREAM S/WV...WL BE SUFFICIENT TO TOSS LGT PCPN THIS WAY. COLD AIR
WL BE MARGINAL AT BEST...SUGGESTING THERE MAY BE A DIURNAL AND ELEV
COMPONENT TO PTYPE. STILL HV SNOWY/MIXED PDS...SPCLY W OF THE I-95
CRRDR. THE WETTEST PD MAY TURN OUT TO BE SAT NGT...WHICH WUD BE ABT
WHEN LOW WL TRANSFER ITS ENERGY TO THE COAST...AND WE/LL ALSO HV PVA
ALOFT. AM KEEPING SCHC/CHC POPS INTO SUNDAY...MORE OUT OF RESPECT TO
ECMWF...AND THE TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFS THAT LINGER.

SUBSIDENCE BLDS BHD THIS SYSTEM FOR SUN NGT-MON NGT. H5 FLOW STILL
QUITE ZNL...SO THERE WONT BE A LOT OF COLD AIR AVBL. HV TEMPS ONLY A
CPL DEGF BLO AVG. THERE MAY BE YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM ON THE
HORIZON BY DAY 7. WL BE GENERIC ATTM...AS THERE/S A LOT OF WX TO GET
THROUGH FIRST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALL TAF SITES ON THE IMPROVING TRACK THIS MORNING AS KIAD AND KDCA
HAVE BOTH INCREASED TO MVFR. VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINING
SITES. SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS AT KIAD AND KDCA BY 12Z WITH VFR
THEN IN PLACE DURING THE DAY TODAY.

LIGHT FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST AFTER
DAYBREAK...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS MIXING IN BETWEEN 14-16Z.
GUSTS END BY 00Z TONIGHT...WITH W FLOW CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. OCNL GUSTS PSBL KDCA
OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAF.

VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

VFR FRI-FRI NGT. FLGT RESTRICTIONS SHUD OVERSPREAD TERMINALS SAT...
AND LINGER INTO ELY SUN. PCPN MAY BE ON THE LGT SIDE...WHICH WUD
SUGGEST THAT MVFR MAY PREVAIL...W/ PDS OF IFR. PTYPE STILL IN QSTN.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA IN EFFECT FOR TODAY FOR ALL WATERS WITH INCREASING WEST
WINDS...GUSTING UP TO 20 KTS. THE SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE COULD BE PERIODS TONIGHT WHERE
THE WINDS DROP BELOW 18 KTS...BUT THE WINDOW SMALL ENOUGH TO WARRANT
THE CONTINUATION OF THE SCA. THE SCA REMAINS ON ALL WATERS THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF THE GUSTS REMAINING ABV 18
KTS OVER JUST THE NORTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY MAINTAIN THE SCA THERE
TILL THURS EVENING.

HIPRES OVER THE WATERS FRI. WK LOPRES PASSING WELL S OVER THE WKND.
WHILE PCPN XPCTD TO REACH WATERS...THE GRADIENT SHUD BE ON THE LGT
SIDE. FOR THAT REASON...NO FLAGS XPCTD ATTM.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVEL DEPARTURES DOWN TO A FOOT OR SLIGHTLY LESS. THAT TREND
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ040-
     051>053-501-502.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>532-538>540.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ533>537-541>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/HTS
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...SEARS/HTS
MARINE...SEARS/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS









000
FXUS61 KLWX 170941
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
441 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COUPLE ISSUES STILL OF CONCERN FOR THIS MORNING AS INITIAL COLD
FRONT SWINGS OFF TO THE EAST AND SECONDARY TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
LATER THIS MORNING. DESPITE THE WESTERLY WIND SHIFT WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLIER TONIGHT...WINDS REMAINING LIGHT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE EASTERN AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH A STILL MOISTURE
THICK ENVIRONMENT AS THE DRIER AIR HAS YET TO MOVE IN HAS RESULTED
IN THE WIDESPREAD FOG. GUIDANCE ALL OVER THE PLACE IN TRYING TO
CAPTURE THE REDUCED VIS WITH THE FOG FORMATION...BUT THINKING WILL
SEE CLEARING WEST TO EAST AS TROUGH PIVOTS THROUGH...INCREASING
WINDS AND USHERING IN THE DRIER AIR. DENSE FOG ALREADY DISSIPATING
ACROSS NORTHERN CENTRAL MD COUNTIES VIA 09Z OBS. HAVE THUS CANCELLED
THE DENSE FOG ADV THERE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THE DENSE FOG ADV
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN VA AND CENTRAL
MD...HOWEVER LATEST THINKING LOOKS LIKE THE ADV WILL MOST LIKELY
BE CANCELLED PRIOR TO THE 13Z END TIME AS CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY
ON THE IMPROVING TRACK.

SECOND CONCERN IS PCPN FOR THE AREAS WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.
09Z RADAR IMAGERY AND OBS INDICATING LIGHT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROUGH AND WEAK SHORTWAVE POSITIONED OVER WESTERN WV/PA.
INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD WORK TO GENERATE SCT UPSLOPE
SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHC THIS MORNING...THEN TAPERING OFF
DURING THE AFTN. COLD AIR HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE IN...AND AS SUCH
CAN EXPECT MIX RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...WITH ALL SNOW AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS. THE PCPN IS VERY LIGHT IN NATURE...AND ONLY A COUPLE
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW AT MOST IS FORECASTED.

FOR TEMPS TODAY...CAA FAIRLY WEAK AS TROUGH ALOFT TURNS MORE
ZONAL...KEEPING THE COLDER TEMPS TO THE NORTH. THE BETTER SHOT OF
CAA NOT EXPECTED TILL TONIGHT. SIDED MORE WITH A WARMER MAV SOLUTION
AS DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT FOR MOST OF THE CWA WITH SKIES SCATTERING
OUT SEEMS THE MORE REASONABLE SOLUTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH THE AREA REMAINING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY DURING
THIS TIME. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AS A TROUGH PIVOTS
THROUGH...FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TOMORROW. OVERALL
EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS THOUGH FOR MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT WEST OF
THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WHICH COULD SEE FLURRIES THIS EVENING. DESPITE
DECENT FORCING ALOFT WITH THE MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES DURING THIS
PERIOD...LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP ANYTHING FROM FORMING...WITH THE
ONLY IMPACT FROM THE ENERGY THUS BEING INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

THE STRONGER CAA FINALLY DIPS SOUTH TONIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW DROPPING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. SIDED MORE WITH
THE MET FOR LOWS AND CONTINUED WITH THE TREND OF LEANING TO THE MAV
FOR THE HIGHS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RDGG OVER CWFA SFC UP THRU H5 FRI-FRI NGT. THUS KEPT BOTH PDS DRY.
SHUD HV PLENTY OF SUN DURING THE DAY. MSTR INCREASES FM THE SW AT
NGT...SPCLY AFTR MIDNGT. WL HV SKIES BCMG MOCLDY IN VA...NE OF PTMC
RIVER MAY AVG OUT PTCLDY.

GDNC CONTINUING TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION THRU THE WKND...WHICH
TAKES AN OPEN SRN STREAM WV WELL SOUTH OF THE CWFA SAT. LTST ECMWF
MUCH LESS DVLPD WRT CSTL LOW. NONETHELESS...THIS TRACK...AND A NRN
STREAM S/WV...WL BE SUFFICIENT TO TOSS LGT PCPN THIS WAY. COLD AIR
WL BE MARGINAL AT BEST...SUGGESTING THERE MAY BE A DIURNAL AND ELEV
COMPONENT TO PTYPE. STILL HV SNOWY/MIXED PDS...SPCLY W OF THE I-95
CRRDR. THE WETTEST PD MAY TURN OUT TO BE SAT NGT...WHICH WUD BE ABT
WHEN LOW WL TRANSFER ITS ENERGY TO THE COAST...AND WE/LL ALSO HV PVA
ALOFT. AM KEEPING SCHC/CHC POPS INTO SUNDAY...MORE OUT OF RESPECT TO
ECMWF...AND THE TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFS THAT LINGER.

SUBSIDENCE BLDS BHD THIS SYSTEM FOR SUN NGT-MON NGT. H5 FLOW STILL
QUITE ZNL...SO THERE WONT BE A LOT OF COLD AIR AVBL. HV TEMPS ONLY A
CPL DEGF BLO AVG. THERE MAY BE YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM ON THE
HORIZON BY DAY 7. WL BE GENERIC ATTM...AS THERE/S A LOT OF WX TO GET
THROUGH FIRST.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALL TAF SITES ON THE IMPROVING TRACK THIS MORNING AS KIAD AND KDCA
HAVE BOTH INCREASED TO MVFR. VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINING
SITES. SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS AT KIAD AND KDCA BY 12Z WITH VFR
THEN IN PLACE DURING THE DAY TODAY.

LIGHT FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST AFTER
DAYBREAK...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS MIXING IN BETWEEN 14-16Z.
GUSTS END BY 00Z TONIGHT...WITH W FLOW CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. OCNL GUSTS PSBL KDCA
OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAF.

VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

VFR FRI-FRI NGT. FLGT RESTRICTIONS SHUD OVERSPREAD TERMINALS SAT...
AND LINGER INTO ELY SUN. PCPN MAY BE ON THE LGT SIDE...WHICH WUD
SUGGEST THAT MVFR MAY PREVAIL...W/ PDS OF IFR. PTYPE STILL IN QSTN.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA IN EFFECT FOR TODAY FOR ALL WATERS WITH INCREASING WEST
WINDS...GUSTING UP TO 20 KTS. THE SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE COULD BE PERIODS TONIGHT WHERE
THE WINDS DROP BELOW 18 KTS...BUT THE WINDOW SMALL ENOUGH TO WARRANT
THE CONTINUATION OF THE SCA. THE SCA REMAINS ON ALL WATERS THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF THE GUSTS REMAINING ABV 18
KTS OVER JUST THE NORTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY MAINTAIN THE SCA THERE
TILL THURS EVENING.

HIPRES OVER THE WATERS FRI. WK LOPRES PASSING WELL S OVER THE WKND.
WHILE PCPN XPCTD TO REACH WATERS...THE GRADIENT SHUD BE ON THE LGT
SIDE. FOR THAT REASON...NO FLAGS XPCTD ATTM.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVEL DEPARTURES DOWN TO A FOOT OR SLIGHTLY LESS. THAT TREND
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ503-504.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ040-
     051>053-501-502-505-506.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>532-538>540.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ533>537-541>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/HTS
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...SEARS/HTS
MARINE...SEARS/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS







000
FXUS61 KRNK 170914
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
414 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT RESULTING IN OVERALL DRIER WEATHER UNDER
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE MOISTURE STARTS TO RETURN AHEAD
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH A
MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE DRIER WEATHER RETURNS ON SUNDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR AT 85H NOW CROSSING THE BLUE RIDGE IN
WAKE OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW WELL TO THE EAST. LOW CLOUDS WITHIN
THE COLD ADVECTION ALSO SPILLING OUT TO THE FOOTHILLS...AND EXPECT THIS
TREND TO PREVAIL THIS MORNING...WITH LOW DECK WEST AND PARTLY SUNNY AT
TIMES EAST. AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE UNDERNEATH THE COLDEST POCKENKED UP LOW CLOUDS
THOUGH LIKELY TO PERSIST WESTERN SLOPES PER CONTINUED DEEP NW
FLOW THAT WILL KEEP THINGS QUITE BLUSTERY WEST AND BREEZY EAST.
RANGE OF HIGH TEMPS FROM UPPER 30S/AROUND 40 NW TO MID 50S SE
LOOKS ON TAP WITH DOWNSLOPE AIDED WARMING EAST WHERE WILL BE
WEAKENING COOL ADVECTION WITH TIME.

UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS BY TO THE NE OVERNIGHT ALLOWING WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TO GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER FAST BUT
ZONAL CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT LIKELY TO BRING SOME SHEARED MID/HIGH
CLOUDS IN AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING ESPCLY SOUTH BEFORE FADING
SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT PER GUIDANCE RH SECTIONS. OTRW STILL EXPECTING
NW FLOW TO KEEP LOW CLOUDS BANKED UP AGAINST THE WESTERN SLOPES
WITH PERHAPS ADDED FREEZING DRIZZLE IN SPOTS BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY
WONT INCLUDE FOR NOW. LOW CLOUDS COULD AGAIN SPILL OUT TO THE BLUE
RIDGE LATE WITH MAINLY PC ELSW FOR HIGH CLOUDS. COMBO OF ADDED
MIXING AND CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP...WITH UNIFORM UPPER
20S/LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FEW MID 2T AT
85H ALSO SLIDING TOWARD THE WESTERN SLOPES...AND THIS IN CONJUNCTION
WITH PIVOTING SHORTWAVE ENERGY UNDER THE 5H TROUGH TO THE NORTH LIKELY
TO KEEP SOME UPSLOPE PRECIP GOING ESPCLY NW INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
MODELS ALSO SHOW THAT MOISTURE IS QUITE SHALLOW WHICH COULD LEAD TO
SOME POCKETS OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE EARLY ON ESPCLY RIDGES WHERE
TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSER TO FREEZING. THUS BUMPED UP POPS TO HIGH
CHANCE/LOW LIKELYS SE WVA AND SPILLED SOME LOW POPS EAST THIS MORNING
GIVEN THE STRONG NW FLOW. COULD SEE AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW AS WELL FAR
NW OTRW SURFACES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MANY PROBLEMS.
HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO COVER POSSIBLE HIGH ELEVATION ICING
ISSUES WITH AN SPS EARLY ON. EXPECT MOISTURE TO SLOWLY DECREASE
FROM EAST TO WEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH DOWNSLOPE DRIVEN CLEARING
EAST AND SOME BREAKS WEST TO THE NEW RIVER. BA0S VALLEYS PENDING
CLOUDS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

EXPECT THURSDAY TO BEGIN WITH FAIR WEATHER EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...
BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE OVERCAST WEST OF THE RIDGE THANKS TO NW
UPSLOPE FLOW AND A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...WHICH IS SHOWN NICELY BY BUFKIT MODEL
SOUNDINGS. JUST AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ON THE WAY OUT WE
TRANSITION TO SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. MODELS CONTINUE TO JUST
WHEN THIS SHALLOW MOISTURE IS DISSIPATING...MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
SPREAD OVER THE AREA AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
IN ZONAL UPPER FLOW. VARIATIONS ON THIS THEME FOR THURSDAY HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISED BY GUIDANCE FOR THE PAST FEW RUNS. BELIEVE WE WILL LACK
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO GENERATE ANYTHING MORE THAN A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY
FOR THE RIDGES SO WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS AT OR BELOW SLIGHT
CHANCE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. FAIR CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES BY TO OUR NORTH AND
STARTS WORKING ITS WAY DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS A WEAK WEDGE.

OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WE
HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES FROM THE
GULF COAST THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEKEND. OVERALL...THE LOW
AMPLITUDE SPLIT FLOW UPPER PATTERN IS NOT VERY CONDUCIVE TO
SUPPORTING A MAJOR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A TRAILING NORTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS NEVER ABLE TO
CATCH AND PHASE WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE...WHICH PREVENTS
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROF TO GENERATE A *MILLER A*
TYPE COASTAL LOW. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR THE LOW TO SCOOT
BY TO OUR SOUTH AND DELIVER THE BULK OF ITS OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION TO US SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.

PRECIPITATION TYPE IS GOING TO BE A MAJOR CHALLENGE WITH THIS SYSTEM
AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARGINAL OVER THE AREA AND THE LOW WILL NOT
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH.
EXPECT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO BE FOR A
MIX AT THE START SATURDAY MORNING...TO MAINLY RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME
FREEZING RAIN FOR THE PIEDMONT WITH THE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
HOLDING SHALLOW COLD AIR NEAR THE SURFACE...BACK TO MIX SATURDAY
NIGHT AS PRECIPITATION LESSENS. BLUE RIDGE WEST WILL SEE THINGS
START AS SNOW...THEN GO TO A MIX...THEN BACK TO SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THINGS WINDING DOWN. THE BEST CHANCE OF A MOSTLY SNOW EVENT
SEEMS TO BE THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES ON INTO THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS
WHERE A SLUSHY COUPLE OF INCHES IS POSSIBLE. MANY DETAILS HAVE YET
TO EMERGE WITH THIS SYSTEM SO EXPECT PRECIPITATION TYPE AND
POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS TO CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT AND
THINGS COME INTO FOCUS.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST TUESDAY...

LATEST 00Z ECMWF SHOWS WEAK LOW PRESSURE SLIDING NE ALONG THE N
CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN AXIS OF DEFORMATION PRECIP
INLAND ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ESPCLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER
ADDED QPF LOOKS RATHER LIGHT AND MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AT
THIS POINT WHERE LIKELY MORE LIQUID NATURE TO START THE EVENING.

MAJORITY OF THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP SHOULD BE EXITING TO EAST
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS MOST SEEING THINGS TAPER OFF AS
A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW AS COLDER AIR FINALLY WRAPS IN. HOWEVER
THIS PENDING LATER TIMING AND MODEL TRENDS WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT
AND THE DEGREE OF COVERAGE OF THE PRECIP SATURDAY EVENING.

BY SUNDAY...THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS THAT THE
AREA WILL BE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH ENOUGH COLD AIR
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A STIFF NORTHWEST WIND TRAJECTORY FOR
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WEST TO CONCLUDE THE EVENT.

BY THE TIME WE GET TO SUNDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE LIFTING OUT OF THE REGION...AND
SUB FREEZING AIR WILL HAVE WRAPPED IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM AT THE
LOWER LEVELS. ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION HAS A GREATER CHANCE TO
BE SNOW OR RAIN WITHOUT THE PRESENCE OF A WARM NOSE ALOFT. BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE PREFERRED AREA OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND
NEIGHBORING PARTS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA WILL GRADUALLY ERODE AS
DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE REGION AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
GRADUALLY BACKS WEST TO SOUTHWEST.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE THE REGION
WITH LIGHT WINDS...LIMITED CLOUD COVER AND NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY. THE GFS
IS QUICK TO BRING THE COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKE REGION. THIS
SYSTEM IS KEPT DISTINCT FROM A DISTURBANCE OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS THAT HAS LITTLE OR NO INTERACTION WITH THE GREAT LAKES
TROUGH THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF OUR FORECAST PERIOD. FOLLOWING
THIS SOLUTION YIELD LIMITED COVERAGE OF RAIN OR SNOW REACHING THE
WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY TUESDAY. THE
ECMWF SOLUTION ALSO HAS THE TWO SYSTEMS DISTINCT THROUGH
TUESDAY...BUT FOR A DIFFERENT REASON. THIS SOLUTIONS IS FARTHER WEST
WITH THE COASTAL SYSTEM...AND WRAPS MOISTURE...AND A WARM
NOSE...INTO OUR AREA DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY TUESDAY. THE GREAT
LAKES SYSTEM IS NOT AS PROGRESSIVE...AND HAS THE TIME TO ELONGATE MORE
SOUTH INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. IF THE ECMWF IS ON
TRACK...THE AREA WILL HAVE A GENEROUS COVERAGE OF A WINTRY MIX
MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. OUR
FORECAST AT THIS POINT WILL RESEMBLE MORE THAT OF THE GFS.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE TRICKY. WHILE WE ARE
EXPECTING A GENERAL TREND TOWARDS MILDER TEMPERATURES EACH DAY PAST
TUESDAY...HOW MUCH...AND WHERE ANY SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW
ARE DEPOSITED WILL PLAY A FACTOR IN BOTH THE HIGHS AND THE LOWS. AT
THIS POINT...AM LEANING ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE...WITH SOME
ALLOTMENT TOWARDS EVEN MORE COOLER WHERE...AT LEAST NOW...THE BEST
CHANCE OF SNOW IS EXPECTED. AT THIS POINT...WILL NOT TOUCH THE FOG
POTENTIAL ONCE WE START TO GET INTO THE RETURN FLOW SIDE OF THE
SURFACE HIGH. ALTHOUGH...AS MILDER AIR STARTS ADVECTING ACROSS ANY
REMAINING SNOWPACK...THE DEW POINT OF THAT AIR WILL LIKELY BE MILDER
THAN THE TEMPERATURE OF THE SNOW IT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1125 PM EST TUESDAY...

FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST...AND NOT EXPECTING ANY SUB VFR EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...THE BLF/LWB/BCB TO HAVE MVFR OR WORSE THROUGH
THE MORNING. THINK BCB WILL BE GOING TO VFR CIGS AT 13-14Z...THEN
SCATTERING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. CIGS TO STAY AROUND IN BLF/LWB
BUT RISE TO MVFR AFTER 15Z...MAY SEE SCATTERED CLOUDS IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT 00Z NAM/CMC STILL HANG ONTO THE LOWER CIGS INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. ATTM...WILL LEAVE IT SCATTERED FROM LATE
AFTERNOON-06Z THU. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY PRECIP AT BLF/LWB.

WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIME FROM THE WNW AT ROA/BLF AND BCB...THEN
WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY.


EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK RELATIVELY BENIGN...THOUGH LOWER CIGS
WILL LINGER IN THE WEST THU.

THE FRI NIGHT-SAT SYSTEM NOW HAS TRENDED WEAKER BUT WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED AS IT LOOKS TO STILL BRING A PERIOD OF SUB VFR
WINTRY WEATHER ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST SAT.

AVIATION INTERESTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION AS LATER
FORECASTS BECOME AVAILABLE. THIS WILL LIKELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON AIR
TRAVEL OVER THE WEEKEND...FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
CAROLINAS NORTH TO THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...JH/DS
AVIATION...DS/KK/WP



000
FXUS61 KRNK 170914
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
414 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT RESULTING IN OVERALL DRIER WEATHER UNDER
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE MOISTURE STARTS TO RETURN AHEAD
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH A
MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE DRIER WEATHER RETURNS ON SUNDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR AT 85H NOW CROSSING THE BLUE RIDGE IN
WAKE OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW WELL TO THE EAST. LOW CLOUDS WITHIN
THE COLD ADVECTION ALSO SPILLING OUT TO THE FOOTHILLS...AND EXPECT THIS
TREND TO PREVAIL THIS MORNING...WITH LOW DECK WEST AND PARTLY SUNNY AT
TIMES EAST. AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE UNDERNEATH THE COLDEST POCKET AT
85H ALSO SLIDING TOWARD THE WESTERN SLOPES...AND THIS IN CONJUNCTION
WITH PIVOTING SHORTWAVE ENERGY UNDER THE 5H TROUGH TO THE NORTH LIKELY
TO KEEP SOME UPSLOPE PRECIP GOING ESPCLY NW INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
MODELS ALSO SHOW THAT MOISTURE IS QUITE SHALLOW WHICH COULD LEAD TO
SOME POCKETS OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE EARLY ON ESPCLY RIDGES WHERE
TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSER TO FREEZING. THUS BUMPED UP POPS TO HIGH
CHANCE/LOW LIKELYS SE WVA AND SPILLED SOME LOW POPS EAST THIS MORNING
GIVEN THE STRONG NW FLOW. COULD SEE AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW AS WELL FAR
NW OTRW SURFACES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MANY PROBLEMS.
HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO COVER POSSIBLE HIGH ELEVATION ICING
ISSUES WITH AN SPS EARLY ON. EXPECT MOISTURE TO SLOWLY DECREASE
FROM EAST TO WEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH DOWNSLOPE DRIVEN CLEARING
EAST AND SOME BREAKS WEST TO THE NEW RIVER. BANKED UP LOW CLOUDS
THOUGH LIKELY TO PERSIST WESTERN SLOPES PER CONTINUED DEEP NW
FLOW THAT WILL KEEP THINGS QUITE BLUSTERY WEST AND BREEZY EAST.
RANGE OF HIGH TEMPS FROM UPPER 30S/AROUND 40 NW TO MID 50S SE
LOOKS ON TAP WITH DOWNSLOPE AIDED WARMING EAST WHERE WILL BE
WEAKENING COOL ADVECTION WITH TIME.

UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS BY TO THE NE OVERNIGHT ALLOWING WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TO GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER FAST BUT
ZONAL CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT LIKELY TO BRING SOME SHEARED MID/HIGH
CLOUDS IN AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING ESPCLY SOUTH BEFORE FADING
SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT PER GUIDANCE RH SECTIONS. OTRW STILL EXPECTING
NW FLOW TO KEEP LOW CLOUDS BANKED UP AGAINST THE WESTERN SLOPES
WITH PERHAPS ADDED FREEZING DRIZZLE IN SPOTS BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY
WONT INCLUDE FOR NOW. LOW CLOUDS COULD AGAIN SPILL OUT TO THE BLUE
RIDGE LATE WITH MAINLY PC ELSW FOR HIGH CLOUDS. COMBO OF ADDED
MIXING AND CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP...WITH UNIFORM UPPER
20S/LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FEW MID 20S VALLEYS PENDING
CLOUDS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

EXPECT THURSDAY TO BEGIN WITH FAIR WEATHER EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...
BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE OVERCAST WEST OF THE RIDGE THANKS TO NW
UPSLOPE FLOW AND A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...WHICH IS SHOWN NICELY BY BUFKIT MODEL
SOUNDINGS. JUST AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ON THE WAY OUT WE
TRANSITION TO SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. MODELS CONTINUE TO JUST
WHEN THIS SHALLOW MOISTURE IS DISSIPATING...MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
SPREAD OVER THE AREA AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
IN ZONAL UPPER FLOW. VARIATIONS ON THIS THEME FOR THURSDAY HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISED BY GUIDANCE FOR THE PAST FEW RUNS. BELIEVE WE WILL LACK
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO GENERATE ANYTHING MORE THAN A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY
FOR THE RIDGES SO WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS AT OR BELOW SLIGHT
CHANCE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. FAIR CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES BY TO OUR NORTH AND
STARTS WORKING ITS WAY DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS A WEAK WEDGE.

OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WE
HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES FROM THE
GULF COAST THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEKEND. OVERALL...THE LOW
AMPLITUDE SPLIT FLOW UPPER PATTERN IS NOT VERY CONDUCIVE TO
SUPPORTING A MAJOR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A TRAILING NORTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS NEVER ABLE TO
CATCH AND PHASE WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE...WHICH PREVENTS
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROF TO GENERATE A *MILLER A*
TYPE COASTAL LOW. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR THE LOW TO SCOOT
BY TO OUR SOUTH AND DELIVER THE BULK OF ITS OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION TO US SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.

PRECIPITATION TYPE IS GOING TO BE A MAJOR CHALLENGE WITH THIS SYSTEM
AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARGINAL OVER THE AREA AND THE LOW WILL NOT
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH.
EXPECT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO BE FOR A
MIX AT THE START SATURDAY MORNING...TO MAINLY RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME
FREEZING RAIN FOR THE PIEDMONT WITH THE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
HOLDING SHALLOW COLD AIR NEAR THE SURFACE...BACK TO MIX SATURDAY
NIGHT AS PRECIPITATION LESSENS. BLUE RIDGE WEST WILL SEE THINGS
START AS SNOW...THEN GO TO A MIX...THEN BACK TO SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THINGS WINDING DOWN. THE BEST CHANCE OF A MOSTLY SNOW EVENT
SEEMS TO BE THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES ON INTO THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS
WHERE A SLUSHY COUPLE OF INCHES IS POSSIBLE. MANY DETAILS HAVE YET
TO EMERGE WITH THIS SYSTEM SO EXPECT PRECIPITATION TYPE AND
POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS TO CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT AND
THINGS COME INTO FOCUS.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST TUESDAY...

LATEST 00Z ECMWF SHOWS WEAK LOW PRESSURE SLIDING NE ALONG THE N
CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN AXIS OF DEFORMATION PRECIP
INLAND ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ESPCLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER
ADDED QPF LOOKS RATHER LIGHT AND MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AT
THIS POINT WHERE LIKELY MORE LIQUID NATURE TO START THE EVENING.

MAJORITY OF THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP SHOULD BE EXITING TO EAST
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS MOST SEEING THINGS TAPER OFF AS
A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW AS COLDER AIR FINALLY WRAPS IN. HOWEVER
THIS PENDING LATER TIMING AND MODEL TRENDS WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT
AND THE DEGREE OF COVERAGE OF THE PRECIP SATURDAY EVENING.

BY SUNDAY...THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS THAT THE
AREA WILL BE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH ENOUGH COLD AIR
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A STIFF NORTHWEST WIND TRAJECTORY FOR
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WEST TO CONCLUDE THE EVENT.

BY THE TIME WE GET TO SUNDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE LIFTING OUT OF THE REGION...AND
SUB FREEZING AIR WILL HAVE WRAPPED IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM AT THE
LOWER LEVELS. ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION HAS A GREATER CHANCE TO
BE SNOW OR RAIN WITHOUT THE PRESENCE OF A WARM NOSE ALOFT. BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE PREFERRED AREA OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND
NEIGHBORING PARTS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA WILL GRADUALLY ERODE AS
DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE REGION AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
GRADUALLY BACKS WEST TO SOUTHWEST.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE THE REGION
WITH LIGHT WINDS...LIMITED CLOUD COVER AND NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY. THE GFS
IS QUICK TO BRING THE COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKE REGION. THIS
SYSTEM IS KEPT DISTINCT FROM A DISTURBANCE OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS THAT HAS LITTLE OR NO INTERACTION WITH THE GREAT LAKES
TROUGH THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF OUR FORECAST PERIOD. FOLLOWING
THIS SOLUTION YIELD LIMITED COVERAGE OF RAIN OR SNOW REACHING THE
WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY TUESDAY. THE
ECMWF SOLUTION ALSO HAS THE TWO SYSTEMS DISTINCT THROUGH
TUESDAY...BUT FOR A DIFFERENT REASON. THIS SOLUTIONS IS FARTHER WEST
WITH THE COASTAL SYSTEM...AND WRAPS MOISTURE...AND A WARM
NOSE...INTO OUR AREA DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY TUESDAY. THE GREAT
LAKES SYSTEM IS NOT AS PROGRESSIVE...AND HAS THE TIME TO ELONGATE MORE
SOUTH INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. IF THE ECMWF IS ON
TRACK...THE AREA WILL HAVE A GENEROUS COVERAGE OF A WINTRY MIX
MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. OUR
FORECAST AT THIS POINT WILL RESEMBLE MORE THAT OF THE GFS.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE TRICKY. WHILE WE ARE
EXPECTING A GENERAL TREND TOWARDS MILDER TEMPERATURES EACH DAY PAST
TUESDAY...HOW MUCH...AND WHERE ANY SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW
ARE DEPOSITED WILL PLAY A FACTOR IN BOTH THE HIGHS AND THE LOWS. AT
THIS POINT...AM LEANING ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE...WITH SOME
ALLOTMENT TOWARDS EVEN MORE COOLER WHERE...AT LEAST NOW...THE BEST
CHANCE OF SNOW IS EXPECTED. AT THIS POINT...WILL NOT TOUCH THE FOG
POTENTIAL ONCE WE START TO GET INTO THE RETURN FLOW SIDE OF THE
SURFACE HIGH. ALTHOUGH...AS MILDER AIR STARTS ADVECTING ACROSS ANY
REMAINING SNOWPACK...THE DEW POINT OF THAT AIR WILL LIKELY BE MILDER
THAN THE TEMPERATURE OF THE SNOW IT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1125 PM EST TUESDAY...

FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST...AND NOT EXPECTING ANY SUB VFR EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...THE BLF/LWB/BCB TO HAVE MVFR OR WORSE THROUGH
THE MORNING. THINK BCB WILL BE GOING TO VFR CIGS AT 13-14Z...THEN
SCATTERING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. CIGS TO STAY AROUND IN BLF/LWB
BUT RISE TO MVFR AFTER 15Z...MAY SEE SCATTERED CLOUDS IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT 00Z NAM/CMC STILL HANG ONTO THE LOWER CIGS INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. ATTM...WILL LEAVE IT SCATTERED FROM LATE
AFTERNOON-06Z THU. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY PRECIP AT BLF/LWB.

WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIME FROM THE WNW AT ROA/BLF AND BCB...THEN
WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY.


EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK RELATIVELY BENIGN...THOUGH LOWER CIGS
WILL LINGER IN THE WEST THU.

THE FRI NIGHT-SAT SYSTEM NOW HAS TRENDED WEAKER BUT WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED AS IT LOOKS TO STILL BRING A PERIOD OF SUB VFR
WINTRY WEATHER ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST SAT.

AVIATION INTERESTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION AS LATER
FORECASTS BECOME AVAILABLE. THIS WILL LIKELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON AIR
TRAVEL OVER THE WEEKEND...FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
CAROLINAS NORTH TO THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...JH/DS
AVIATION...DS/KK/WP



000
FXUS61 KRNK 170914
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
414 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT RESULTING IN OVERALL DRIER WEATHER UNDER
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE MOISTURE STARTS TO RETURN AHEAD
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH A
MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE DRIER WEATHER RETURNS ON SUNDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR AT 85H NOW CROSSING THE BLUE RIDGE IN
WAKE OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW WELL TO THE EAST. LOW CLOUDS WITHIN
THE COLD ADVECTION ALSO SPILLING OUT TO THE FOOTHILLS...AND EXPECT THIS
TREND TO PREVAIL THIS MORNING...WITH LOW DECK WEST AND PARTLY SUNNY AT
TIMES EAST. AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE UNDERNEATH THE COLDEST POCKET AT
85H ALSO SLIDING TOWARD THE WESTERN SLOPES...AND THIS IN CONJUNCTION
WITH PIVOTING SHORTWAVE ENERGY UNDER THE 5H TROUGH TO THE NORTH LIKELY
TO KEEP SOME UPSLOPE PRECIP GOING ESPCLY NW INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
MODELS ALSO SHOW THAT MOISTURE IS QUITE SHALLOW WHICH COULD LEAD TO
SOME POCKETS OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE EARLY ON ESPCLY RIDGES WHERE
TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSER TO FREEZING. THUS BUMPED UP POPS TO HIGH
CHANCE/LOW LIKELYS SE WVA AND SPILLED SOME LOW POPS EAST THIS MORNING
GIVEN THE STRONG NW FLOW. COULD SEE AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW AS WELL FAR
NW OTRW SURFACES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MANY PROBLEMS.
HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO COVER POSSIBLE HIGH ELEVATION ICING
ISSUES WITH AN SPS EARLY ON. EXPECT MOISTURE TO SLOWLY DECREASE
FROM EAST TO WEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH DOWNSLOPE DRIVEN CLEARING
EAST AND SOME BREAKS WEST TO THE NEW RIVER. BANKED UP LOW CLOUDS
THOUGH LIKELY TO PERSIST WESTERN SLOPES PER CONTINUED DEEP NW
FLOW THAT WILL KEEP THINGS QUITE BLUSTERY WEST AND BREEZY EAST.
RANGE OF HIGH TEMPS FROM UPPER 30S/AROUND 40 NW TO MID 50S SE
LOOKS ON TAP WITH DOWNSLOPE AIDED WARMING EAST WHERE WILL BE
WEAKENING COOL ADVECTION WITH TIME.

UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS BY TO THE NE OVERNIGHT ALLOWING WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TO GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER FAST BUT
ZONAL CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT LIKELY TO BRING SOME SHEARED MID/HIGH
CLOUDS IN AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING ESPCLY SOUTH BEFORE FADING
SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT PER GUIDANCE RH SECTIONS. OTRW STILL EXPECTING
NW FLOW TO KEEP LOW CLOUDS BANKED UP AGAINST THE WESTERN SLOPES
WITH PERHAPS ADDED FREEZING DRIZZLE IN SPOTS BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY
WONT INCLUDE FOR NOW. LOW CLOUDS COULD AGAIN SPILL OUT TO THE BLUE
RIDGE LATE WITH MAINLY PC ELSW FOR HIGH CLOUDS. COMBO OF ADDED
MIXING AND CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP...WITH UNIFORM UPPER
20S/LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FEW MID 20S VALLEYS PENDING
CLOUDS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

EXPECT THURSDAY TO BEGIN WITH FAIR WEATHER EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...
BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE OVERCAST WEST OF THE RIDGE THANKS TO NW
UPSLOPE FLOW AND A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...WHICH IS SHOWN NICELY BY BUFKIT MODEL
SOUNDINGS. JUST AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ON THE WAY OUT WE
TRANSITION TO SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. MODELS CONTINUE TO JUST
WHEN THIS SHALLOW MOISTURE IS DISSIPATING...MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
SPREAD OVER THE AREA AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
IN ZONAL UPPER FLOW. VARIATIONS ON THIS THEME FOR THURSDAY HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISED BY GUIDANCE FOR THE PAST FEW RUNS. BELIEVE WE WILL LACK
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO GENERATE ANYTHING MORE THAN A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY
FOR THE RIDGES SO WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS AT OR BELOW SLIGHT
CHANCE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. FAIR CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES BY TO OUR NORTH AND
STARTS WORKING ITS WAY DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS A WEAK WEDGE.

OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WE
HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES FROM THE
GULF COAST THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEKEND. OVERALL...THE LOW
AMPLITUDE SPLIT FLOW UPPER PATTERN IS NOT VERY CONDUCIVE TO
SUPPORTING A MAJOR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A TRAILING NORTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS NEVER ABLE TO
CATCH AND PHASE WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE...WHICH PREVENTS
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROF TO GENERATE A *MILLER A*
TYPE COASTAL LOW. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR THE LOW TO SCOOT
BY TO OUR SOUTH AND DELIVER THE BULK OF ITS OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION TO US SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.

PRECIPITATION TYPE IS GOING TO BE A MAJOR CHALLENGE WITH THIS SYSTEM
AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARGINAL OVER THE AREA AND THE LOW WILL NOT
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH.
EXPECT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO BE FOR A
MIX AT THE START SATURDAY MORNING...TO MAINLY RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME
FREEZING RAIN FOR THE PIEDMONT WITH THE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
HOLDING SHALLOW COLD AIR NEAR THE SURFACE...BACK TO MIX SATURDAY
NIGHT AS PRECIPITATION LESSENS. BLUE RIDGE WEST WILL SEE THINGS
START AS SNOW...THEN GO TO A MIX...THEN BACK TO SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THINGS WINDING DOWN. THE BEST CHANCE OF A MOSTLY SNOW EVENT
SEEMS TO BE THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES ON INTO THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS
WHERE A SLUSHY COUPLE OF INCHES IS POSSIBLE. MANY DETAILS HAVE YET
TO EMERGE WITH THIS SYSTEM SO EXPECT PRECIPITATION TYPE AND
POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS TO CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT AND
THINGS COME INTO FOCUS.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST TUESDAY...

LATEST 00Z ECMWF SHOWS WEAK LOW PRESSURE SLIDING NE ALONG THE N
CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN AXIS OF DEFORMATION PRECIP
INLAND ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ESPCLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER
ADDED QPF LOOKS RATHER LIGHT AND MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AT
THIS POINT WHERE LIKELY MORE LIQUID NATURE TO START THE EVENING.

MAJORITY OF THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP SHOULD BE EXITING TO EAST
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS MOST SEEING THINGS TAPER OFF AS
A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW AS COLDER AIR FINALLY WRAPS IN. HOWEVER
THIS PENDING LATER TIMING AND MODEL TRENDS WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT
AND THE DEGREE OF COVERAGE OF THE PRECIP SATURDAY EVENING.

BY SUNDAY...THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS THAT THE
AREA WILL BE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH ENOUGH COLD AIR
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A STIFF NORTHWEST WIND TRAJECTORY FOR
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WEST TO CONCLUDE THE EVENT.

BY THE TIME WE GET TO SUNDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE LIFTING OUT OF THE REGION...AND
SUB FREEZING AIR WILL HAVE WRAPPED IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM AT THE
LOWER LEVELS. ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION HAS A GREATER CHANCE TO
BE SNOW OR RAIN WITHOUT THE PRESENCE OF A WARM NOSE ALOFT. BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE PREFERRED AREA OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND
NEIGHBORING PARTS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA WILL GRADUALLY ERODE AS
DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE REGION AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
GRADUALLY BACKS WEST TO SOUTHWEST.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE THE REGION
WITH LIGHT WINDS...LIMITED CLOUD COVER AND NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY. THE GFS
IS QUICK TO BRING THE COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKE REGION. THIS
SYSTEM IS KEPT DISTINCT FROM A DISTURBANCE OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS THAT HAS LITTLE OR NO INTERACTION WITH THE GREAT LAKES
TROUGH THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF OUR FORECAST PERIOD. FOLLOWING
THIS SOLUTION YIELD LIMITED COVERAGE OF RAIN OR SNOW REACHING THE
WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY TUESDAY. THE
ECMWF SOLUTION ALSO HAS THE TWO SYSTEMS DISTINCT THROUGH
TUESDAY...BUT FOR A DIFFERENT REASON. THIS SOLUTIONS IS FARTHER WEST
WITH THE COASTAL SYSTEM...AND WRAPS MOISTURE...AND A WARM
NOSE...INTO OUR AREA DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY TUESDAY. THE GREAT
LAKES SYSTEM IS NOT AS PROGRESSIVE...AND HAS THE TIME TO ELONGATE MORE
SOUTH INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. IF THE ECMWF IS ON
TRACK...THE AREA WILL HAVE A GENEROUS COVERAGE OF A WINTRY MIX
MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. OUR
FORECAST AT THIS POINT WILL RESEMBLE MORE THAT OF THE GFS.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE TRICKY. WHILE WE ARE
EXPECTING A GENERAL TREND TOWARDS MILDER TEMPERATURES EACH DAY PAST
TUESDAY...HOW MUCH...AND WHERE ANY SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW
ARE DEPOSITED WILL PLAY A FACTOR IN BOTH THE HIGHS AND THE LOWS. AT
THIS POINT...AM LEANING ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE...WITH SOME
ALLOTMENT TOWARDS EVEN MORE COOLER WHERE...AT LEAST NOW...THE BEST
CHANCE OF SNOW IS EXPECTED. AT THIS POINT...WILL NOT TOUCH THE FOG
POTENTIAL ONCE WE START TO GET INTO THE RETURN FLOW SIDE OF THE
SURFACE HIGH. ALTHOUGH...AS MILDER AIR STARTS ADVECTING ACROSS ANY
REMAINING SNOWPACK...THE DEW POINT OF THAT AIR WILL LIKELY BE MILDER
THAN THE TEMPERATURE OF THE SNOW IT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1125 PM EST TUESDAY...

FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST...AND NOT EXPECTING ANY SUB VFR EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...THE BLF/LWB/BCB TO HAVE MVFR OR WORSE THROUGH
THE MORNING. THINK BCB WILL BE GOING TO VFR CIGS AT 13-14Z...THEN
SCATTERING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. CIGS TO STAY AROUND IN BLF/LWB
BUT RISE TO MVFR AFTER 15Z...MAY SEE SCATTERED CLOUDS IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT 00Z NAM/CMC STILL HANG ONTO THE LOWER CIGS INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. ATTM...WILL LEAVE IT SCATTERED FROM LATE
AFTERNOON-06Z THU. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY PRECIP AT BLF/LWB.

WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIME FROM THE WNW AT ROA/BLF AND BCB...THEN
WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY.


EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK RELATIVELY BENIGN...THOUGH LOWER CIGS
WILL LINGER IN THE WEST THU.

THE FRI NIGHT-SAT SYSTEM NOW HAS TRENDED WEAKER BUT WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED AS IT LOOKS TO STILL BRING A PERIOD OF SUB VFR
WINTRY WEATHER ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST SAT.

AVIATION INTERESTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION AS LATER
FORECASTS BECOME AVAILABLE. THIS WILL LIKELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON AIR
TRAVEL OVER THE WEEKEND...FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
CAROLINAS NORTH TO THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...JH/DS
AVIATION...DS/KK/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 170914
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
414 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT RESULTING IN OVERALL DRIER WEATHER UNDER
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE MOISTURE STARTS TO RETURN AHEAD
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH A
MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE DRIER WEATHER RETURNS ON SUNDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR AT 85H NOW CROSSING THE BLUE RIDGE IN
WAKE OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW WELL TO THE EAST. LOW CLOUDS WITHIN
THE COLD ADVECTION ALSO SPILLING OUT TO THE FOOTHILLS...AND EXPECT THIS
TREND TO PREVAIL THIS MORNING...WITH LOW DECK WEST AND PARTLY SUNNY AT
TIMES EAST. AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE UNDERNEATH THE COLDEST POCKET AT
85H ALSO SLIDING TOWARD THE WESTERN SLOPES...AND THIS IN CONJUNCTION
WITH PIVOTING SHORTWAVE ENERGY UNDER THE 5H TROUGH TO THE NORTH LIKELY
TO KEEP SOME UPSLOPE PRECIP GOING ESPCLY NW INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
MODELS ALSO SHOW THAT MOISTURE IS QUITE SHALLOW WHICH COULD LEAD TO
SOME POCKETS OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE EARLY ON ESPCLY RIDGES WHERE
TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSER TO FREEZING. THUS BUMPED UP POPS TO HIGH
CHANCE/LOW LIKELYS SE WVA AND SPILLED SOME LOW POPS EAST THIS MORNING
GIVEN THE STRONG NW FLOW. COULD SEE AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW AS WELL FAR
NW OTRW SURFACES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MANY PROBLEMS.
HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO COVER POSSIBLE HIGH ELEVATION ICING
ISSUES WITH AN SPS EARLY ON. EXPECT MOISTURE TO SLOWLY DECREASE
FROM EAST TO WEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH DOWNSLOPE DRIVEN CLEARING
EAST AND SOME BREAKS WEST TO THE NEW RIVER. BANKED UP LOW CLOUDS
THOUGH LIKELY TO PERSIST WESTERN SLOPES PER CONTINUED DEEP NW
FLOW THAT WILL KEEP THINGS QUITE BLUSTERY WEST AND BREEZY EAST.
RANGE OF HIGH TEMPS FROM UPPER 30S/AROUND 40 NW TO MID 50S SE
LOOKS ON TAP WITH DOWNSLOPE AIDED WARMING EAST WHERE WILL BE
WEAKENING COOL ADVECTION WITH TIME.

UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS BY TO THE NE OVERNIGHT ALLOWING WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TO GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER FAST BUT
ZONAL CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT LIKELY TO BRING SOME SHEARED MID/HIGH
CLOUDS IN AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING ESPCLY SOUTH BEFORE FADING
SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT PER GUIDANCE RH SECTIONS. OTRW STILL EXPECTING
NW FLOW TO KEEP LOW CLOUDS BANKED UP AGAINST THE WESTERN SLOPES
WITH PERHAPS ADDED FREEZING DRIZZLE IN SPOTS BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY
WONT INCLUDE FOR NOW. LOW CLOUDS COULD AGAIN SPILL OUT TO THE BLUE
RIDGE LATE WITH MAINLY PC ELSW FOR HIGH CLOUDS. COMBO OF ADDED
MIXING AND CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP...WITH UNIFORM UPPER
20S/LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FEW MID 20S VALLEYS PENDING
CLOUDS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

EXPECT THURSDAY TO BEGIN WITH FAIR WEATHER EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...
BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE OVERCAST WEST OF THE RIDGE THANKS TO NW
UPSLOPE FLOW AND A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...WHICH IS SHOWN NICELY BY BUFKIT MODEL
SOUNDINGS. JUST AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ON THE WAY OUT WE
TRANSITION TO SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. MODELS CONTINUE TO JUST
WHEN THIS SHALLOW MOISTURE IS DISSIPATING...MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
SPREAD OVER THE AREA AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
IN ZONAL UPPER FLOW. VARIATIONS ON THIS THEME FOR THURSDAY HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISED BY GUIDANCE FOR THE PAST FEW RUNS. BELIEVE WE WILL LACK
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO GENERATE ANYTHING MORE THAN A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY
FOR THE RIDGES SO WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS AT OR BELOW SLIGHT
CHANCE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. FAIR CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES BY TO OUR NORTH AND
STARTS WORKING ITS WAY DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS A WEAK WEDGE.

OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WE
HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES FROM THE
GULF COAST THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEKEND. OVERALL...THE LOW
AMPLITUDE SPLIT FLOW UPPER PATTERN IS NOT VERY CONDUCIVE TO
SUPPORTING A MAJOR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A TRAILING NORTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS NEVER ABLE TO
CATCH AND PHASE WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE...WHICH PREVENTS
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROF TO GENERATE A *MILLER A*
TYPE COASTAL LOW. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR THE LOW TO SCOOT
BY TO OUR SOUTH AND DELIVER THE BULK OF ITS OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION TO US SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.

PRECIPITATION TYPE IS GOING TO BE A MAJOR CHALLENGE WITH THIS SYSTEM
AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARGINAL OVER THE AREA AND THE LOW WILL NOT
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH.
EXPECT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO BE FOR A
MIX AT THE START SATURDAY MORNING...TO MAINLY RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME
FREEZING RAIN FOR THE PIEDMONT WITH THE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
HOLDING SHALLOW COLD AIR NEAR THE SURFACE...BACK TO MIX SATURDAY
NIGHT AS PRECIPITATION LESSENS. BLUE RIDGE WEST WILL SEE THINGS
START AS SNOW...THEN GO TO A MIX...THEN BACK TO SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THINGS WINDING DOWN. THE BEST CHANCE OF A MOSTLY SNOW EVENT
SEEMS TO BE THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES ON INTO THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS
WHERE A SLUSHY COUPLE OF INCHES IS POSSIBLE. MANY DETAILS HAVE YET
TO EMERGE WITH THIS SYSTEM SO EXPECT PRECIPITATION TYPE AND
POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS TO CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT AND
THINGS COME INTO FOCUS.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST TUESDAY...

LATEST 00Z ECMWF SHOWS WEAK LOW PRESSURE SLIDING NE ALONG THE N
CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN AXIS OF DEFORMATION PRECIP
INLAND ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ESPCLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER
ADDED QPF LOOKS RATHER LIGHT AND MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AT
THIS POINT WHERE LIKELY MORE LIQUID NATURE TO START THE EVENING.

MAJORITY OF THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP SHOULD BE EXITING TO EAST
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS MOST SEEING THINGS TAPER OFF AS
A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW AS COLDER AIR FINALLY WRAPS IN. HOWEVER
THIS PENDING LATER TIMING AND MODEL TRENDS WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT
AND THE DEGREE OF COVERAGE OF THE PRECIP SATURDAY EVENING.

BY SUNDAY...THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS THAT THE
AREA WILL BE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH ENOUGH COLD AIR
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A STIFF NORTHWEST WIND TRAJECTORY FOR
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WEST TO CONCLUDE THE EVENT.

BY THE TIME WE GET TO SUNDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE LIFTING OUT OF THE REGION...AND
SUB FREEZING AIR WILL HAVE WRAPPED IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM AT THE
LOWER LEVELS. ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION HAS A GREATER CHANCE TO
BE SNOW OR RAIN WITHOUT THE PRESENCE OF A WARM NOSE ALOFT. BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE PREFERRED AREA OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND
NEIGHBORING PARTS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA WILL GRADUALLY ERODE AS
DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE REGION AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
GRADUALLY BACKS WEST TO SOUTHWEST.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE THE REGION
WITH LIGHT WINDS...LIMITED CLOUD COVER AND NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY. THE GFS
IS QUICK TO BRING THE COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKE REGION. THIS
SYSTEM IS KEPT DISTINCT FROM A DISTURBANCE OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS THAT HAS LITTLE OR NO INTERACTION WITH THE GREAT LAKES
TROUGH THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF OUR FORECAST PERIOD. FOLLOWING
THIS SOLUTION YIELD LIMITED COVERAGE OF RAIN OR SNOW REACHING THE
WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY TUESDAY. THE
ECMWF SOLUTION ALSO HAS THE TWO SYSTEMS DISTINCT THROUGH
TUESDAY...BUT FOR A DIFFERENT REASON. THIS SOLUTIONS IS FARTHER WEST
WITH THE COASTAL SYSTEM...AND WRAPS MOISTURE...AND A WARM
NOSE...INTO OUR AREA DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY TUESDAY. THE GREAT
LAKES SYSTEM IS NOT AS PROGRESSIVE...AND HAS THE TIME TO ELONGATE MORE
SOUTH INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. IF THE ECMWF IS ON
TRACK...THE AREA WILL HAVE A GENEROUS COVERAGE OF A WINTRY MIX
MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. OUR
FORECAST AT THIS POINT WILL RESEMBLE MORE THAT OF THE GFS.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE TRICKY. WHILE WE ARE
EXPECTING A GENERAL TREND TOWARDS MILDER TEMPERATURES EACH DAY PAST
TUESDAY...HOW MUCH...AND WHERE ANY SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW
ARE DEPOSITED WILL PLAY A FACTOR IN BOTH THE HIGHS AND THE LOWS. AT
THIS POINT...AM LEANING ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE...WITH SOME
ALLOTMENT TOWARDS EVEN MORE COOLER WHERE...AT LEAST NOW...THE BEST
CHANCE OF SNOW IS EXPECTED. AT THIS POINT...WILL NOT TOUCH THE FOG
POTENTIAL ONCE WE START TO GET INTO THE RETURN FLOW SIDE OF THE
SURFACE HIGH. ALTHOUGH...AS MILDER AIR STARTS ADVECTING ACROSS ANY
REMAINING SNOWPACK...THE DEW POINT OF THAT AIR WILL LIKELY BE MILDER
THAN THE TEMPERATURE OF THE SNOW IT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1125 PM EST TUESDAY...

FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST...AND NOT EXPECTING ANY SUB VFR EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...THE BLF/LWB/BCB TO HAVE MVFR OR WORSE THROUGH
THE MORNING. THINK BCB WILL BE GOING TO VFR CIGS AT 13-14Z...THEN
SCATTERING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. CIGS TO STAY AROUND IN BLF/LWB
BUT RISE TO MVFR AFTER 15Z...MAY SEE SCATTERED CLOUDS IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT 00Z NAM/CMC STILL HANG ONTO THE LOWER CIGS INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. ATTM...WILL LEAVE IT SCATTERED FROM LATE
AFTERNOON-06Z THU. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY PRECIP AT BLF/LWB.

WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIME FROM THE WNW AT ROA/BLF AND BCB...THEN
WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY.


EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK RELATIVELY BENIGN...THOUGH LOWER CIGS
WILL LINGER IN THE WEST THU.

THE FRI NIGHT-SAT SYSTEM NOW HAS TRENDED WEAKER BUT WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED AS IT LOOKS TO STILL BRING A PERIOD OF SUB VFR
WINTRY WEATHER ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST SAT.

AVIATION INTERESTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION AS LATER
FORECASTS BECOME AVAILABLE. THIS WILL LIKELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON AIR
TRAVEL OVER THE WEEKEND...FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
CAROLINAS NORTH TO THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...JH/DS
AVIATION...DS/KK/WP



000
FXUS61 KRNK 170914
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
414 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT RESULTING IN OVERALL DRIER WEATHER UNDER
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE MOISTURE STARTS TO RETURN AHEAD
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH A
MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE DRIER WEATHER RETURNS ON SUNDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR AT 85H NOW CROSSING THE BLUE RIDGE IN
WAKE OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW WELL TO THE EAST. LOW CLOUDS WITHIN
THE COLD ADVECTION ALSO SPILLING OUT TO THE FOOTHILLS...AND EXPECT THIS
TREND TO PREVAIL THIS MORNING...WITH LOW DECK WEST AND PARTLY SUNNY AT
TIMES EAST. AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE UNDERNEATH THE COLDEST POCKET AT
85H ALSO SLIDING TOWARD THE WESTERN SLOPES...AND THIS IN CONJUNCTION
WITH PIVOTING SHORTWAVE ENERGY UNDER THE 5H TROUGH TO THE NORTH LIKELY
TO KEEP SOME UPSLOPE PRECIP GOING ESPCLY NW INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
MODELS ALSO SHOW THAT MOISTURE IS QUITE SHALLOW WHICH COULD LEAD TO
SOME POCKETS OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE EARLY ON ESPCLY RIDGES WHERE
TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSER TO FREEZING. THUS BUMPED UP POPS TO HIGH
CHANCE/LOW LIKELYS SE WVA AND SPILLED SOME LOW POPS EAST THIS MORNING
GIVEN THE STRONG NW FLOW. COULD SEE AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW AS WELL FAR
NW OTRW SURFACES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MANY PROBLEMS.
HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO COVER POSSIBLE HIGH ELEVATION ICING
ISSUES WITH AN SPS EARLY ON. EXPECT MOISTURE TO SLOWLY DECREASE
FROM EAST TO WEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH DOWNSLOPE DRIVEN CLEARING
EAST AND SOME BREAKS WEST TO THE NEW RIVER. BANKED UP LOW CLOUDS
THOUGH LIKELY TO PERSIST WESTERN SLOPES PER CONTINUED DEEP NW
FLOW THAT WILL KEEP THINGS QUITE BLUSTERY WEST AND BREEZY EAST.
RANGE OF HIGH TEMPS FROM UPPER 30S/AROUND 40 NW TO MID 50S SE
LOOKS ON TAP WITH DOWNSLOPE AIDED WARMING EAST WHERE WILL BE
WEAKENING COOL ADVECTION WITH TIME.

UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS BY TO THE NE OVERNIGHT ALLOWING WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TO GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER FAST BUT
ZONAL CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT LIKELY TO BRING SOME SHEARED MID/HIGH
CLOUDS IN AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING ESPCLY SOUTH BEFORE FADING
SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT PER GUIDANCE RH SECTIONS. OTRW STILL EXPECTING
NW FLOW TO KEEP LOW CLOUDS BANKED UP AGAINST THE WESTERN SLOPES
WITH PERHAPS ADDED FREEZING DRIZZLE IN SPOTS BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY
WONT INCLUDE FOR NOW. LOW CLOUDS COULD AGAIN SPILL OUT TO THE BLUE
RIDGE LATE WITH MAINLY PC ELSW FOR HIGH CLOUDS. COMBO OF ADDED
MIXING AND CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP...WITH UNIFORM UPPER
20S/LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FEW MID 20S VALLEYS PENDING
CLOUDS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

EXPECT THURSDAY TO BEGIN WITH FAIR WEATHER EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...
BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE OVERCAST WEST OF THE RIDGE THANKS TO NW
UPSLOPE FLOW AND A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...WHICH IS SHOWN NICELY BY BUFKIT MODEL
SOUNDINGS. JUST AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ON THE WAY OUT WE
TRANSITION TO SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. MODELS CONTINUE TO JUST
WHEN THIS SHALLOW MOISTURE IS DISSIPATING...MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
SPREAD OVER THE AREA AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
IN ZONAL UPPER FLOW. VARIATIONS ON THIS THEME FOR THURSDAY HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISED BY GUIDANCE FOR THE PAST FEW RUNS. BELIEVE WE WILL LACK
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO GENERATE ANYTHING MORE THAN A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY
FOR THE RIDGES SO WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS AT OR BELOW SLIGHT
CHANCE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. FAIR CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES BY TO OUR NORTH AND
STARTS WORKING ITS WAY DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS A WEAK WEDGE.

OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WE
HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES FROM THE
GULF COAST THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEKEND. OVERALL...THE LOW
AMPLITUDE SPLIT FLOW UPPER PATTERN IS NOT VERY CONDUCIVE TO
SUPPORTING A MAJOR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A TRAILING NORTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS NEVER ABLE TO
CATCH AND PHASE WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE...WHICH PREVENTS
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROF TO GENERATE A *MILLER A*
TYPE COASTAL LOW. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR THE LOW TO SCOOT
BY TO OUR SOUTH AND DELIVER THE BULK OF ITS OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION TO US SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.

PRECIPITATION TYPE IS GOING TO BE A MAJOR CHALLENGE WITH THIS SYSTEM
AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARGINAL OVER THE AREA AND THE LOW WILL NOT
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH.
EXPECT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO BE FOR A
MIX AT THE START SATURDAY MORNING...TO MAINLY RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME
FREEZING RAIN FOR THE PIEDMONT WITH THE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
HOLDING SHALLOW COLD AIR NEAR THE SURFACE...BACK TO MIX SATURDAY
NIGHT AS PRECIPITATION LESSENS. BLUE RIDGE WEST WILL SEE THINGS
START AS SNOW...THEN GO TO A MIX...THEN BACK TO SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THINGS WINDING DOWN. THE BEST CHANCE OF A MOSTLY SNOW EVENT
SEEMS TO BE THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES ON INTO THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS
WHERE A SLUSHY COUPLE OF INCHES IS POSSIBLE. MANY DETAILS HAVE YET
TO EMERGE WITH THIS SYSTEM SO EXPECT PRECIPITATION TYPE AND
POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS TO CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT AND
THINGS COME INTO FOCUS.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST TUESDAY...

LATEST 00Z ECMWF SHOWS WEAK LOW PRESSURE SLIDING NE ALONG THE N
CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN AXIS OF DEFORMATION PRECIP
INLAND ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ESPCLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER
ADDED QPF LOOKS RATHER LIGHT AND MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AT
THIS POINT WHERE LIKELY MORE LIQUID NATURE TO START THE EVENING.

MAJORITY OF THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP SHOULD BE EXITING TO EAST
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS MOST SEEING THINGS TAPER OFF AS
A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW AS COLDER AIR FINALLY WRAPS IN. HOWEVER
THIS PENDING LATER TIMING AND MODEL TRENDS WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT
AND THE DEGREE OF COVERAGE OF THE PRECIP SATURDAY EVENING.

BY SUNDAY...THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS THAT THE
AREA WILL BE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH ENOUGH COLD AIR
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A STIFF NORTHWEST WIND TRAJECTORY FOR
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WEST TO CONCLUDE THE EVENT.

BY THE TIME WE GET TO SUNDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE LIFTING OUT OF THE REGION...AND
SUB FREEZING AIR WILL HAVE WRAPPED IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM AT THE
LOWER LEVELS. ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION HAS A GREATER CHANCE TO
BE SNOW OR RAIN WITHOUT THE PRESENCE OF A WARM NOSE ALOFT. BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE PREFERRED AREA OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND
NEIGHBORING PARTS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA WILL GRADUALLY ERODE AS
DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE REGION AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
GRADUALLY BACKS WEST TO SOUTHWEST.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE THE REGION
WITH LIGHT WINDS...LIMITED CLOUD COVER AND NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY. THE GFS
IS QUICK TO BRING THE COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKE REGION. THIS
SYSTEM IS KEPT DISTINCT FROM A DISTURBANCE OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS THAT HAS LITTLE OR NO INTERACTION WITH THE GREAT LAKES
TROUGH THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF OUR FORECAST PERIOD. FOLLOWING
THIS SOLUTION YIELD LIMITED COVERAGE OF RAIN OR SNOW REACHING THE
WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY TUESDAY. THE
ECMWF SOLUTION ALSO HAS THE TWO SYSTEMS DISTINCT THROUGH
TUESDAY...BUT FOR A DIFFERENT REASON. THIS SOLUTIONS IS FARTHER WEST
WITH THE COASTAL SYSTEM...AND WRAPS MOISTURE...AND A WARM
NOSE...INTO OUR AREA DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY TUESDAY. THE GREAT
LAKES SYSTEM IS NOT AS PROGRESSIVE...AND HAS THE TIME TO ELONGATE MORE
SOUTH INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. IF THE ECMWF IS ON
TRACK...THE AREA WILL HAVE A GENEROUS COVERAGE OF A WINTRY MIX
MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. OUR
FORECAST AT THIS POINT WILL RESEMBLE MORE THAT OF THE GFS.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE TRICKY. WHILE WE ARE
EXPECTING A GENERAL TREND TOWARDS MILDER TEMPERATURES EACH DAY PAST
TUESDAY...HOW MUCH...AND WHERE ANY SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW
ARE DEPOSITED WILL PLAY A FACTOR IN BOTH THE HIGHS AND THE LOWS. AT
THIS POINT...AM LEANING ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE...WITH SOME
ALLOTMENT TOWARDS EVEN MORE COOLER WHERE...AT LEAST NOW...THE BEST
CHANCE OF SNOW IS EXPECTED. AT THIS POINT...WILL NOT TOUCH THE FOG
POTENTIAL ONCE WE START TO GET INTO THE RETURN FLOW SIDE OF THE
SURFACE HIGH. ALTHOUGH...AS MILDER AIR STARTS ADVECTING ACROSS ANY
REMAINING SNOWPACK...THE DEW POINT OF THAT AIR WILL LIKELY BE MILDER
THAN THE TEMPERATURE OF THE SNOW IT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1125 PM EST TUESDAY...

FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST...AND NOT EXPECTING ANY SUB VFR EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...THE BLF/LWB/BCB TO HAVE MVFR OR WORSE THROUGH
THE MORNING. THINK BCB WILL BE GOING TO VFR CIGS AT 13-14Z...THEN
SCATTERING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. CIGS TO STAY AROUND IN BLF/LWB
BUT RISE TO MVFR AFTER 15Z...MAY SEE SCATTERED CLOUDS IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT 00Z NAM/CMC STILL HANG ONTO THE LOWER CIGS INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. ATTM...WILL LEAVE IT SCATTERED FROM LATE
AFTERNOON-06Z THU. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY PRECIP AT BLF/LWB.

WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIME FROM THE WNW AT ROA/BLF AND BCB...THEN
WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY.


EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK RELATIVELY BENIGN...THOUGH LOWER CIGS
WILL LINGER IN THE WEST THU.

THE FRI NIGHT-SAT SYSTEM NOW HAS TRENDED WEAKER BUT WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED AS IT LOOKS TO STILL BRING A PERIOD OF SUB VFR
WINTRY WEATHER ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST SAT.

AVIATION INTERESTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION AS LATER
FORECASTS BECOME AVAILABLE. THIS WILL LIKELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON AIR
TRAVEL OVER THE WEEKEND...FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
CAROLINAS NORTH TO THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...JH/DS
AVIATION...DS/KK/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 170914
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
414 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT RESULTING IN OVERALL DRIER WEATHER UNDER
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE MOISTURE STARTS TO RETURN AHEAD
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH A
MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE DRIER WEATHER RETURNS ON SUNDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR AT 85H NOW CROSSING THE BLUE RIDGE IN
WAKE OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW WELL TO THE EAST. LOW CLOUDS WITHIN
THE COLD ADVECTION ALSO SPILLING OUT TO THE FOOTHILLS...AND EXPECT THIS
TREND TO PREVAIL THIS MORNING...WITH LOW DECK WEST AND PARTLY SUNNY AT
TIMES EAST. AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE UNDERNEATH THE COLDEST POCKENKED UP LOW CLOUDS
THOUGH LIKELY TO PERSIST WESTERN SLOPES PER CONTINUED DEEP NW
FLOW THAT WILL KEEP THINGS QUITE BLUSTERY WEST AND BREEZY EAST.
RANGE OF HIGH TEMPS FROM UPPER 30S/AROUND 40 NW TO MID 50S SE
LOOKS ON TAP WITH DOWNSLOPE AIDED WARMING EAST WHERE WILL BE
WEAKENING COOL ADVECTION WITH TIME.

UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS BY TO THE NE OVERNIGHT ALLOWING WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TO GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER FAST BUT
ZONAL CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT LIKELY TO BRING SOME SHEARED MID/HIGH
CLOUDS IN AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING ESPCLY SOUTH BEFORE FADING
SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT PER GUIDANCE RH SECTIONS. OTRW STILL EXPECTING
NW FLOW TO KEEP LOW CLOUDS BANKED UP AGAINST THE WESTERN SLOPES
WITH PERHAPS ADDED FREEZING DRIZZLE IN SPOTS BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY
WONT INCLUDE FOR NOW. LOW CLOUDS COULD AGAIN SPILL OUT TO THE BLUE
RIDGE LATE WITH MAINLY PC ELSW FOR HIGH CLOUDS. COMBO OF ADDED
MIXING AND CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP...WITH UNIFORM UPPER
20S/LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FEW MID 2T AT
85H ALSO SLIDING TOWARD THE WESTERN SLOPES...AND THIS IN CONJUNCTION
WITH PIVOTING SHORTWAVE ENERGY UNDER THE 5H TROUGH TO THE NORTH LIKELY
TO KEEP SOME UPSLOPE PRECIP GOING ESPCLY NW INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
MODELS ALSO SHOW THAT MOISTURE IS QUITE SHALLOW WHICH COULD LEAD TO
SOME POCKETS OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE EARLY ON ESPCLY RIDGES WHERE
TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSER TO FREEZING. THUS BUMPED UP POPS TO HIGH
CHANCE/LOW LIKELYS SE WVA AND SPILLED SOME LOW POPS EAST THIS MORNING
GIVEN THE STRONG NW FLOW. COULD SEE AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW AS WELL FAR
NW OTRW SURFACES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MANY PROBLEMS.
HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO COVER POSSIBLE HIGH ELEVATION ICING
ISSUES WITH AN SPS EARLY ON. EXPECT MOISTURE TO SLOWLY DECREASE
FROM EAST TO WEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH DOWNSLOPE DRIVEN CLEARING
EAST AND SOME BREAKS WEST TO THE NEW RIVER. BA0S VALLEYS PENDING
CLOUDS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

EXPECT THURSDAY TO BEGIN WITH FAIR WEATHER EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...
BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE OVERCAST WEST OF THE RIDGE THANKS TO NW
UPSLOPE FLOW AND A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...WHICH IS SHOWN NICELY BY BUFKIT MODEL
SOUNDINGS. JUST AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ON THE WAY OUT WE
TRANSITION TO SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. MODELS CONTINUE TO JUST
WHEN THIS SHALLOW MOISTURE IS DISSIPATING...MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
SPREAD OVER THE AREA AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
IN ZONAL UPPER FLOW. VARIATIONS ON THIS THEME FOR THURSDAY HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISED BY GUIDANCE FOR THE PAST FEW RUNS. BELIEVE WE WILL LACK
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO GENERATE ANYTHING MORE THAN A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY
FOR THE RIDGES SO WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS AT OR BELOW SLIGHT
CHANCE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. FAIR CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES BY TO OUR NORTH AND
STARTS WORKING ITS WAY DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS A WEAK WEDGE.

OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WE
HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES FROM THE
GULF COAST THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEKEND. OVERALL...THE LOW
AMPLITUDE SPLIT FLOW UPPER PATTERN IS NOT VERY CONDUCIVE TO
SUPPORTING A MAJOR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A TRAILING NORTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS NEVER ABLE TO
CATCH AND PHASE WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE...WHICH PREVENTS
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROF TO GENERATE A *MILLER A*
TYPE COASTAL LOW. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR THE LOW TO SCOOT
BY TO OUR SOUTH AND DELIVER THE BULK OF ITS OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION TO US SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.

PRECIPITATION TYPE IS GOING TO BE A MAJOR CHALLENGE WITH THIS SYSTEM
AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARGINAL OVER THE AREA AND THE LOW WILL NOT
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH.
EXPECT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO BE FOR A
MIX AT THE START SATURDAY MORNING...TO MAINLY RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME
FREEZING RAIN FOR THE PIEDMONT WITH THE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
HOLDING SHALLOW COLD AIR NEAR THE SURFACE...BACK TO MIX SATURDAY
NIGHT AS PRECIPITATION LESSENS. BLUE RIDGE WEST WILL SEE THINGS
START AS SNOW...THEN GO TO A MIX...THEN BACK TO SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THINGS WINDING DOWN. THE BEST CHANCE OF A MOSTLY SNOW EVENT
SEEMS TO BE THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES ON INTO THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS
WHERE A SLUSHY COUPLE OF INCHES IS POSSIBLE. MANY DETAILS HAVE YET
TO EMERGE WITH THIS SYSTEM SO EXPECT PRECIPITATION TYPE AND
POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS TO CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT AND
THINGS COME INTO FOCUS.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST TUESDAY...

LATEST 00Z ECMWF SHOWS WEAK LOW PRESSURE SLIDING NE ALONG THE N
CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN AXIS OF DEFORMATION PRECIP
INLAND ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ESPCLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER
ADDED QPF LOOKS RATHER LIGHT AND MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AT
THIS POINT WHERE LIKELY MORE LIQUID NATURE TO START THE EVENING.

MAJORITY OF THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP SHOULD BE EXITING TO EAST
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS MOST SEEING THINGS TAPER OFF AS
A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW AS COLDER AIR FINALLY WRAPS IN. HOWEVER
THIS PENDING LATER TIMING AND MODEL TRENDS WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT
AND THE DEGREE OF COVERAGE OF THE PRECIP SATURDAY EVENING.

BY SUNDAY...THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS THAT THE
AREA WILL BE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH ENOUGH COLD AIR
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A STIFF NORTHWEST WIND TRAJECTORY FOR
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WEST TO CONCLUDE THE EVENT.

BY THE TIME WE GET TO SUNDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE LIFTING OUT OF THE REGION...AND
SUB FREEZING AIR WILL HAVE WRAPPED IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM AT THE
LOWER LEVELS. ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION HAS A GREATER CHANCE TO
BE SNOW OR RAIN WITHOUT THE PRESENCE OF A WARM NOSE ALOFT. BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE PREFERRED AREA OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND
NEIGHBORING PARTS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA WILL GRADUALLY ERODE AS
DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE REGION AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
GRADUALLY BACKS WEST TO SOUTHWEST.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE THE REGION
WITH LIGHT WINDS...LIMITED CLOUD COVER AND NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY. THE GFS
IS QUICK TO BRING THE COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKE REGION. THIS
SYSTEM IS KEPT DISTINCT FROM A DISTURBANCE OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS THAT HAS LITTLE OR NO INTERACTION WITH THE GREAT LAKES
TROUGH THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF OUR FORECAST PERIOD. FOLLOWING
THIS SOLUTION YIELD LIMITED COVERAGE OF RAIN OR SNOW REACHING THE
WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY TUESDAY. THE
ECMWF SOLUTION ALSO HAS THE TWO SYSTEMS DISTINCT THROUGH
TUESDAY...BUT FOR A DIFFERENT REASON. THIS SOLUTIONS IS FARTHER WEST
WITH THE COASTAL SYSTEM...AND WRAPS MOISTURE...AND A WARM
NOSE...INTO OUR AREA DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY TUESDAY. THE GREAT
LAKES SYSTEM IS NOT AS PROGRESSIVE...AND HAS THE TIME TO ELONGATE MORE
SOUTH INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. IF THE ECMWF IS ON
TRACK...THE AREA WILL HAVE A GENEROUS COVERAGE OF A WINTRY MIX
MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. OUR
FORECAST AT THIS POINT WILL RESEMBLE MORE THAT OF THE GFS.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE TRICKY. WHILE WE ARE
EXPECTING A GENERAL TREND TOWARDS MILDER TEMPERATURES EACH DAY PAST
TUESDAY...HOW MUCH...AND WHERE ANY SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW
ARE DEPOSITED WILL PLAY A FACTOR IN BOTH THE HIGHS AND THE LOWS. AT
THIS POINT...AM LEANING ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE...WITH SOME
ALLOTMENT TOWARDS EVEN MORE COOLER WHERE...AT LEAST NOW...THE BEST
CHANCE OF SNOW IS EXPECTED. AT THIS POINT...WILL NOT TOUCH THE FOG
POTENTIAL ONCE WE START TO GET INTO THE RETURN FLOW SIDE OF THE
SURFACE HIGH. ALTHOUGH...AS MILDER AIR STARTS ADVECTING ACROSS ANY
REMAINING SNOWPACK...THE DEW POINT OF THAT AIR WILL LIKELY BE MILDER
THAN THE TEMPERATURE OF THE SNOW IT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1125 PM EST TUESDAY...

FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST...AND NOT EXPECTING ANY SUB VFR EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...THE BLF/LWB/BCB TO HAVE MVFR OR WORSE THROUGH
THE MORNING. THINK BCB WILL BE GOING TO VFR CIGS AT 13-14Z...THEN
SCATTERING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. CIGS TO STAY AROUND IN BLF/LWB
BUT RISE TO MVFR AFTER 15Z...MAY SEE SCATTERED CLOUDS IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT 00Z NAM/CMC STILL HANG ONTO THE LOWER CIGS INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. ATTM...WILL LEAVE IT SCATTERED FROM LATE
AFTERNOON-06Z THU. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY PRECIP AT BLF/LWB.

WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIME FROM THE WNW AT ROA/BLF AND BCB...THEN
WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY.


EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK RELATIVELY BENIGN...THOUGH LOWER CIGS
WILL LINGER IN THE WEST THU.

THE FRI NIGHT-SAT SYSTEM NOW HAS TRENDED WEAKER BUT WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED AS IT LOOKS TO STILL BRING A PERIOD OF SUB VFR
WINTRY WEATHER ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST SAT.

AVIATION INTERESTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION AS LATER
FORECASTS BECOME AVAILABLE. THIS WILL LIKELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON AIR
TRAVEL OVER THE WEEKEND...FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
CAROLINAS NORTH TO THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...JH/DS
AVIATION...DS/KK/WP



000
FXUS61 KLWX 170846
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
346 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COUPLE ISSUES OF CONCERN FOR THIS MORNING AS INITIAL COLD FRONT
SWINGS OFF TO THE EAST AND SECONDARY TROUGH MOVES THROUGH LATER THIS
MORNING. DESPITE THE WESTERLY WIND SHIFT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
EARLIER TONIGHT...WINDS STILL REMAINING LIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH A STILL MOISTURE THICK ENVIRONMENT
AS THE DRIER AIR HAS YET TO MOVE IN HAS RESULTED IN THE WIDESPREAD
FOG...WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG. AS SUCH...WITH ON GOING DENSE FOG
ACROSS CENTRAL MD/NORTHERN VA...MAINLY SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE
BALTIMORE/DC METRO AREAS AND THE BLUE RIDGE...HAVE DENSE FOG ADV IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA THRU 13Z. PATCHY FOG PSBL IN REMAINING AREAS
THRU AT LEAST DAYBREAK. GUIDANCE ALL OVER THE PLACE IN TRYING TO
CAPTURE THE REDUCED VIS WITH THE FOG FORMATION...BUT THINKING WILL
SEE CLEARING WEST TO EAST AS TROUGH PIVOTS THROUGH...INCREASING
WINDS AND USHERING IN THE DRIER AIR. DEPENDENT UPON TIMING...COULD
VERY WELL END UP SEEING THE ADV ENDING BEFORE 13Z.

SECOND CONCERN IS PCPN FOR THE AREAS WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.
08Z RADAR IMAGERY AND OBS INDICATING LIGHT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH AND WEAK SHORTWAVE POSITIONED OVER WESTERN WV/PA. INCREASING
WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD WORK TO GENERATE SCT UPSLOPE SHOWERS...WITH THE
BEST CHC THIS MORNING...THEN TAPERING OFF DURING THE AFTN. COLD AIR
HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE IN...AND AS SUCH CAN EXPECT MIX RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH ALL SNOW AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. THE PCPN IS VERY
LIGHT IN NATURE...AND ONLY A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW AT
MOST IS FORECASTED.

FOR TEMPS TODAY...CAA FAIRLY WEAK AS TROUGH ALOFT TURNS MORE
ZONAL...KEEPING THE COLDER TEMPS TO THE NORTH. THE BETTER SHOT OF
CAA NOT EXPECTED TILL TONIGHT. SIDED MORE WITH A WARMER MAV SOLUTION
AS DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT FOR MOST OF THE CWA WITH SKIES SCATTERING
OUT SEEMS THE MORE REASONABLE SOLUTION.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH THE AREA REMAINING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY DURING
THIS TIME. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AS A TROUGH PIVOTS
THROUGH...FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TOMORROW. OVERALL
EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS THOUGH FOR MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT WEST OF
THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WHICH COULD SEE FLURRIES THIS EVENING. DESPITE
DECENT FORCING ALOFT WITH THE MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES DURING THIS
PERIOD...LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP ANYTHING FROM FORMING...WITH THE
ONLY IMPACT FROM THE ENERGY THUS BEING INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

THE STRONGER CAA FINALLY DIPS SOUTH TONIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW DROPPING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. SIDED MORE WITH
THE MET FOR LOWS AND CONTINUED WITH THE TREND OF LEANING TO THE MAV
FOR THE HIGHS ON THURSDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RDGG OVER CWFA SFC UP THRU H5 FRI-FRI NGT. THUS KEPT BOTH PDS DRY.
SHUD HV PLENTY OF SUN DURING THE DAY. MSTR INCREASES FM THE SW AT
NGT...SPCLY AFTR MIDNGT. WL HV SKIES BCMG MOCLDY IN VA...NE OF PTMC
RIVER MAY AVG OUT PTCLDY.

GDNC CONTINUING TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION THRU THE WKND...WHICH
TAKES AN OPEN SRN STREAM WV WELL SOUTH OF THE CWFA SAT. LTST ECMWF
MUCH LESS DVLPD WRT CSTL LOW. NONETHELESS...THIS TRACK...AND A NRN
STREAM S/WV...WL BE SUFFICIENT TO TOSS LGT PCPN THIS WAY. COLD AIR
WL BE MARGINAL AT BEST...SUGGESTING THERE MAY BE A DIURNAL AND ELEV
COMPONENT TO PTYPE. STILL HV SNOWY/MIXED PDS...SPCLY W OF THE I-95
CRRDR. THE WETTEST PD MAY TURN OUT TO BE SAT NGT...WHICH WUD BE ABT
WHEN LOW WL TRANSFER ITS ENERGY TO THE COAST...AND WE/LL ALSO HV PVA
ALOFT. AM KEEPING SCHC/CHC POPS INTO SUNDAY...MORE OUT OF RESPECT TO
ECMWF...AND THE TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFS THAT LINGER.

SUBSIDENCE BLDS BHD THIS SYSTEM FOR SUN NGT-MON NGT. H5 FLOW STILL
QUITE ZNL...SO THERE WONT BE A LOT OF COLD AIR AVBL. HV TEMPS ONLY A
CPL DEGF BLO AVG. THERE MAY BE YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM ON THE
HORIZON BY DAY 7. WL BE GENERIC ATTM...AS THERE/S A LOT OF WX TO GET
THROUGH FIRST.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ON GOING IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS AT KIAD AND KDCA THIS
MORNING...WITH THE REMAINING AREA MVFR OR HIGHER. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE FOR THE NON IFR LOCATIONS STAYING ABV IFR. LOW CONFIDENCE
ON IMPROVEMENT TIME AT KIAD...THOUGH GUIDANCE INDICATES DIMINISHED
VIS/CIGS THRU AT LEAST 12Z. KDCA SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CIGS BY 14Z.

LIGHT FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST AFTER
DAYBREAK...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS MIXING IN BETWEEN 14-16Z.
GUSTS END BY 00Z TONIGHT...WITH W FLOW CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. OCNL GUSTS PSBL KDCA
OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAF.

VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

VFR FRI-FRI NGT. FLGT RESTRICTIONS SHUD OVERSPREAD TERMINALS SAT...
AND LINGER INTO ELY SUN. PCPN MAY BE ON THE LGT SIDE...WHICH WUD
SUGGEST THAT MVFR MAY PREVAIL...W/ PDS OF IFR. PTYPE STILL IN QSTN.
&&

.MARINE...
SCA IN EFFECT FOR TODAY FOR ALL WATERS WITH INCREASING WEST
WINDS...GUSTING UP TO 20 KTS. THE SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE COULD BE PERIODS TONIGHT WHERE
THE WINDS DROP BELOW 18 KTS...BUT THE WINDOW SMALL ENOUGH TO WARRANT
THE CONTINUATION OF THE SCA. THE SCA REMAINS ON ALL WATERS THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF THE GUSTS REMAINING ABV 18
KTS OVER JUST THE NORTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY MAINTAIN THE SCA THERE
TILL THURS EVENING.

HIPRES OVER THE WATERS FRI. WK LOPRES PASSING WELL S OVER THE WKND.
WHILE PCPN XPCTD TO REACH WATERS...THE GRADIENT SHUD BE ON THE LGT
SIDE. FOR THAT REASON...NO FLAGS XPCTD ATTM.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVEL DEPARTURES DOWN TO A FOOT OR SLIGHTLY LESS. THAT TREND
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ004>006-
     503>506.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ040-
     051>053-501-502-505-506.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>532-538>540.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ533>537-541>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/HTS
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...SEARS/HTS
MARINE...SEARS/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 170846
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
346 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COUPLE ISSUES OF CONCERN FOR THIS MORNING AS INITIAL COLD FRONT
SWINGS OFF TO THE EAST AND SECONDARY TROUGH MOVES THROUGH LATER THIS
MORNING. DESPITE THE WESTERLY WIND SHIFT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
EARLIER TONIGHT...WINDS STILL REMAINING LIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH A STILL MOISTURE THICK ENVIRONMENT
AS THE DRIER AIR HAS YET TO MOVE IN HAS RESULTED IN THE WIDESPREAD
FOG...WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG. AS SUCH...WITH ON GOING DENSE FOG
ACROSS CENTRAL MD/NORTHERN VA...MAINLY SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE
BALTIMORE/DC METRO AREAS AND THE BLUE RIDGE...HAVE DENSE FOG ADV IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA THRU 13Z. PATCHY FOG PSBL IN REMAINING AREAS
THRU AT LEAST DAYBREAK. GUIDANCE ALL OVER THE PLACE IN TRYING TO
CAPTURE THE REDUCED VIS WITH THE FOG FORMATION...BUT THINKING WILL
SEE CLEARING WEST TO EAST AS TROUGH PIVOTS THROUGH...INCREASING
WINDS AND USHERING IN THE DRIER AIR. DEPENDENT UPON TIMING...COULD
VERY WELL END UP SEEING THE ADV ENDING BEFORE 13Z.

SECOND CONCERN IS PCPN FOR THE AREAS WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.
08Z RADAR IMAGERY AND OBS INDICATING LIGHT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH AND WEAK SHORTWAVE POSITIONED OVER WESTERN WV/PA. INCREASING
WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD WORK TO GENERATE SCT UPSLOPE SHOWERS...WITH THE
BEST CHC THIS MORNING...THEN TAPERING OFF DURING THE AFTN. COLD AIR
HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE IN...AND AS SUCH CAN EXPECT MIX RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH ALL SNOW AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. THE PCPN IS VERY
LIGHT IN NATURE...AND ONLY A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW AT
MOST IS FORECASTED.

FOR TEMPS TODAY...CAA FAIRLY WEAK AS TROUGH ALOFT TURNS MORE
ZONAL...KEEPING THE COLDER TEMPS TO THE NORTH. THE BETTER SHOT OF
CAA NOT EXPECTED TILL TONIGHT. SIDED MORE WITH A WARMER MAV SOLUTION
AS DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT FOR MOST OF THE CWA WITH SKIES SCATTERING
OUT SEEMS THE MORE REASONABLE SOLUTION.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH THE AREA REMAINING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY DURING
THIS TIME. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AS A TROUGH PIVOTS
THROUGH...FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TOMORROW. OVERALL
EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS THOUGH FOR MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT WEST OF
THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WHICH COULD SEE FLURRIES THIS EVENING. DESPITE
DECENT FORCING ALOFT WITH THE MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES DURING THIS
PERIOD...LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP ANYTHING FROM FORMING...WITH THE
ONLY IMPACT FROM THE ENERGY THUS BEING INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

THE STRONGER CAA FINALLY DIPS SOUTH TONIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW DROPPING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. SIDED MORE WITH
THE MET FOR LOWS AND CONTINUED WITH THE TREND OF LEANING TO THE MAV
FOR THE HIGHS ON THURSDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RDGG OVER CWFA SFC UP THRU H5 FRI-FRI NGT. THUS KEPT BOTH PDS DRY.
SHUD HV PLENTY OF SUN DURING THE DAY. MSTR INCREASES FM THE SW AT
NGT...SPCLY AFTR MIDNGT. WL HV SKIES BCMG MOCLDY IN VA...NE OF PTMC
RIVER MAY AVG OUT PTCLDY.

GDNC CONTINUING TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION THRU THE WKND...WHICH
TAKES AN OPEN SRN STREAM WV WELL SOUTH OF THE CWFA SAT. LTST ECMWF
MUCH LESS DVLPD WRT CSTL LOW. NONETHELESS...THIS TRACK...AND A NRN
STREAM S/WV...WL BE SUFFICIENT TO TOSS LGT PCPN THIS WAY. COLD AIR
WL BE MARGINAL AT BEST...SUGGESTING THERE MAY BE A DIURNAL AND ELEV
COMPONENT TO PTYPE. STILL HV SNOWY/MIXED PDS...SPCLY W OF THE I-95
CRRDR. THE WETTEST PD MAY TURN OUT TO BE SAT NGT...WHICH WUD BE ABT
WHEN LOW WL TRANSFER ITS ENERGY TO THE COAST...AND WE/LL ALSO HV PVA
ALOFT. AM KEEPING SCHC/CHC POPS INTO SUNDAY...MORE OUT OF RESPECT TO
ECMWF...AND THE TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFS THAT LINGER.

SUBSIDENCE BLDS BHD THIS SYSTEM FOR SUN NGT-MON NGT. H5 FLOW STILL
QUITE ZNL...SO THERE WONT BE A LOT OF COLD AIR AVBL. HV TEMPS ONLY A
CPL DEGF BLO AVG. THERE MAY BE YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM ON THE
HORIZON BY DAY 7. WL BE GENERIC ATTM...AS THERE/S A LOT OF WX TO GET
THROUGH FIRST.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ON GOING IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS AT KIAD AND KDCA THIS
MORNING...WITH THE REMAINING AREA MVFR OR HIGHER. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE FOR THE NON IFR LOCATIONS STAYING ABV IFR. LOW CONFIDENCE
ON IMPROVEMENT TIME AT KIAD...THOUGH GUIDANCE INDICATES DIMINISHED
VIS/CIGS THRU AT LEAST 12Z. KDCA SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CIGS BY 14Z.

LIGHT FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST AFTER
DAYBREAK...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS MIXING IN BETWEEN 14-16Z.
GUSTS END BY 00Z TONIGHT...WITH W FLOW CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. OCNL GUSTS PSBL KDCA
OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAF.

VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

VFR FRI-FRI NGT. FLGT RESTRICTIONS SHUD OVERSPREAD TERMINALS SAT...
AND LINGER INTO ELY SUN. PCPN MAY BE ON THE LGT SIDE...WHICH WUD
SUGGEST THAT MVFR MAY PREVAIL...W/ PDS OF IFR. PTYPE STILL IN QSTN.
&&

.MARINE...
SCA IN EFFECT FOR TODAY FOR ALL WATERS WITH INCREASING WEST
WINDS...GUSTING UP TO 20 KTS. THE SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE COULD BE PERIODS TONIGHT WHERE
THE WINDS DROP BELOW 18 KTS...BUT THE WINDOW SMALL ENOUGH TO WARRANT
THE CONTINUATION OF THE SCA. THE SCA REMAINS ON ALL WATERS THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF THE GUSTS REMAINING ABV 18
KTS OVER JUST THE NORTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY MAINTAIN THE SCA THERE
TILL THURS EVENING.

HIPRES OVER THE WATERS FRI. WK LOPRES PASSING WELL S OVER THE WKND.
WHILE PCPN XPCTD TO REACH WATERS...THE GRADIENT SHUD BE ON THE LGT
SIDE. FOR THAT REASON...NO FLAGS XPCTD ATTM.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVEL DEPARTURES DOWN TO A FOOT OR SLIGHTLY LESS. THAT TREND
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ004>006-
     503>506.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ040-
     051>053-501-502-505-506.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>532-538>540.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ533>537-541>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/HTS
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...SEARS/HTS
MARINE...SEARS/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 170846
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
346 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COUPLE ISSUES OF CONCERN FOR THIS MORNING AS INITIAL COLD FRONT
SWINGS OFF TO THE EAST AND SECONDARY TROUGH MOVES THROUGH LATER THIS
MORNING. DESPITE THE WESTERLY WIND SHIFT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
EARLIER TONIGHT...WINDS STILL REMAINING LIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH A STILL MOISTURE THICK ENVIRONMENT
AS THE DRIER AIR HAS YET TO MOVE IN HAS RESULTED IN THE WIDESPREAD
FOG...WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG. AS SUCH...WITH ON GOING DENSE FOG
ACROSS CENTRAL MD/NORTHERN VA...MAINLY SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE
BALTIMORE/DC METRO AREAS AND THE BLUE RIDGE...HAVE DENSE FOG ADV IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA THRU 13Z. PATCHY FOG PSBL IN REMAINING AREAS
THRU AT LEAST DAYBREAK. GUIDANCE ALL OVER THE PLACE IN TRYING TO
CAPTURE THE REDUCED VIS WITH THE FOG FORMATION...BUT THINKING WILL
SEE CLEARING WEST TO EAST AS TROUGH PIVOTS THROUGH...INCREASING
WINDS AND USHERING IN THE DRIER AIR. DEPENDENT UPON TIMING...COULD
VERY WELL END UP SEEING THE ADV ENDING BEFORE 13Z.

SECOND CONCERN IS PCPN FOR THE AREAS WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.
08Z RADAR IMAGERY AND OBS INDICATING LIGHT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH AND WEAK SHORTWAVE POSITIONED OVER WESTERN WV/PA. INCREASING
WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD WORK TO GENERATE SCT UPSLOPE SHOWERS...WITH THE
BEST CHC THIS MORNING...THEN TAPERING OFF DURING THE AFTN. COLD AIR
HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE IN...AND AS SUCH CAN EXPECT MIX RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH ALL SNOW AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. THE PCPN IS VERY
LIGHT IN NATURE...AND ONLY A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW AT
MOST IS FORECASTED.

FOR TEMPS TODAY...CAA FAIRLY WEAK AS TROUGH ALOFT TURNS MORE
ZONAL...KEEPING THE COLDER TEMPS TO THE NORTH. THE BETTER SHOT OF
CAA NOT EXPECTED TILL TONIGHT. SIDED MORE WITH A WARMER MAV SOLUTION
AS DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT FOR MOST OF THE CWA WITH SKIES SCATTERING
OUT SEEMS THE MORE REASONABLE SOLUTION.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH THE AREA REMAINING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY DURING
THIS TIME. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AS A TROUGH PIVOTS
THROUGH...FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TOMORROW. OVERALL
EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS THOUGH FOR MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT WEST OF
THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WHICH COULD SEE FLURRIES THIS EVENING. DESPITE
DECENT FORCING ALOFT WITH THE MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES DURING THIS
PERIOD...LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP ANYTHING FROM FORMING...WITH THE
ONLY IMPACT FROM THE ENERGY THUS BEING INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

THE STRONGER CAA FINALLY DIPS SOUTH TONIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW DROPPING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. SIDED MORE WITH
THE MET FOR LOWS AND CONTINUED WITH THE TREND OF LEANING TO THE MAV
FOR THE HIGHS ON THURSDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RDGG OVER CWFA SFC UP THRU H5 FRI-FRI NGT. THUS KEPT BOTH PDS DRY.
SHUD HV PLENTY OF SUN DURING THE DAY. MSTR INCREASES FM THE SW AT
NGT...SPCLY AFTR MIDNGT. WL HV SKIES BCMG MOCLDY IN VA...NE OF PTMC
RIVER MAY AVG OUT PTCLDY.

GDNC CONTINUING TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION THRU THE WKND...WHICH
TAKES AN OPEN SRN STREAM WV WELL SOUTH OF THE CWFA SAT. LTST ECMWF
MUCH LESS DVLPD WRT CSTL LOW. NONETHELESS...THIS TRACK...AND A NRN
STREAM S/WV...WL BE SUFFICIENT TO TOSS LGT PCPN THIS WAY. COLD AIR
WL BE MARGINAL AT BEST...SUGGESTING THERE MAY BE A DIURNAL AND ELEV
COMPONENT TO PTYPE. STILL HV SNOWY/MIXED PDS...SPCLY W OF THE I-95
CRRDR. THE WETTEST PD MAY TURN OUT TO BE SAT NGT...WHICH WUD BE ABT
WHEN LOW WL TRANSFER ITS ENERGY TO THE COAST...AND WE/LL ALSO HV PVA
ALOFT. AM KEEPING SCHC/CHC POPS INTO SUNDAY...MORE OUT OF RESPECT TO
ECMWF...AND THE TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFS THAT LINGER.

SUBSIDENCE BLDS BHD THIS SYSTEM FOR SUN NGT-MON NGT. H5 FLOW STILL
QUITE ZNL...SO THERE WONT BE A LOT OF COLD AIR AVBL. HV TEMPS ONLY A
CPL DEGF BLO AVG. THERE MAY BE YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM ON THE
HORIZON BY DAY 7. WL BE GENERIC ATTM...AS THERE/S A LOT OF WX TO GET
THROUGH FIRST.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ON GOING IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS AT KIAD AND KDCA THIS
MORNING...WITH THE REMAINING AREA MVFR OR HIGHER. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE FOR THE NON IFR LOCATIONS STAYING ABV IFR. LOW CONFIDENCE
ON IMPROVEMENT TIME AT KIAD...THOUGH GUIDANCE INDICATES DIMINISHED
VIS/CIGS THRU AT LEAST 12Z. KDCA SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CIGS BY 14Z.

LIGHT FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST AFTER
DAYBREAK...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS MIXING IN BETWEEN 14-16Z.
GUSTS END BY 00Z TONIGHT...WITH W FLOW CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. OCNL GUSTS PSBL KDCA
OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAF.

VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

VFR FRI-FRI NGT. FLGT RESTRICTIONS SHUD OVERSPREAD TERMINALS SAT...
AND LINGER INTO ELY SUN. PCPN MAY BE ON THE LGT SIDE...WHICH WUD
SUGGEST THAT MVFR MAY PREVAIL...W/ PDS OF IFR. PTYPE STILL IN QSTN.
&&

.MARINE...
SCA IN EFFECT FOR TODAY FOR ALL WATERS WITH INCREASING WEST
WINDS...GUSTING UP TO 20 KTS. THE SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE COULD BE PERIODS TONIGHT WHERE
THE WINDS DROP BELOW 18 KTS...BUT THE WINDOW SMALL ENOUGH TO WARRANT
THE CONTINUATION OF THE SCA. THE SCA REMAINS ON ALL WATERS THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF THE GUSTS REMAINING ABV 18
KTS OVER JUST THE NORTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY MAINTAIN THE SCA THERE
TILL THURS EVENING.

HIPRES OVER THE WATERS FRI. WK LOPRES PASSING WELL S OVER THE WKND.
WHILE PCPN XPCTD TO REACH WATERS...THE GRADIENT SHUD BE ON THE LGT
SIDE. FOR THAT REASON...NO FLAGS XPCTD ATTM.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVEL DEPARTURES DOWN TO A FOOT OR SLIGHTLY LESS. THAT TREND
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ004>006-
     503>506.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ040-
     051>053-501-502-505-506.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>532-538>540.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ533>537-541>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/HTS
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...SEARS/HTS
MARINE...SEARS/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 170846
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
346 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COUPLE ISSUES OF CONCERN FOR THIS MORNING AS INITIAL COLD FRONT
SWINGS OFF TO THE EAST AND SECONDARY TROUGH MOVES THROUGH LATER THIS
MORNING. DESPITE THE WESTERLY WIND SHIFT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
EARLIER TONIGHT...WINDS STILL REMAINING LIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH A STILL MOISTURE THICK ENVIRONMENT
AS THE DRIER AIR HAS YET TO MOVE IN HAS RESULTED IN THE WIDESPREAD
FOG...WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG. AS SUCH...WITH ON GOING DENSE FOG
ACROSS CENTRAL MD/NORTHERN VA...MAINLY SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE
BALTIMORE/DC METRO AREAS AND THE BLUE RIDGE...HAVE DENSE FOG ADV IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA THRU 13Z. PATCHY FOG PSBL IN REMAINING AREAS
THRU AT LEAST DAYBREAK. GUIDANCE ALL OVER THE PLACE IN TRYING TO
CAPTURE THE REDUCED VIS WITH THE FOG FORMATION...BUT THINKING WILL
SEE CLEARING WEST TO EAST AS TROUGH PIVOTS THROUGH...INCREASING
WINDS AND USHERING IN THE DRIER AIR. DEPENDENT UPON TIMING...COULD
VERY WELL END UP SEEING THE ADV ENDING BEFORE 13Z.

SECOND CONCERN IS PCPN FOR THE AREAS WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.
08Z RADAR IMAGERY AND OBS INDICATING LIGHT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH AND WEAK SHORTWAVE POSITIONED OVER WESTERN WV/PA. INCREASING
WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD WORK TO GENERATE SCT UPSLOPE SHOWERS...WITH THE
BEST CHC THIS MORNING...THEN TAPERING OFF DURING THE AFTN. COLD AIR
HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE IN...AND AS SUCH CAN EXPECT MIX RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH ALL SNOW AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. THE PCPN IS VERY
LIGHT IN NATURE...AND ONLY A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW AT
MOST IS FORECASTED.

FOR TEMPS TODAY...CAA FAIRLY WEAK AS TROUGH ALOFT TURNS MORE
ZONAL...KEEPING THE COLDER TEMPS TO THE NORTH. THE BETTER SHOT OF
CAA NOT EXPECTED TILL TONIGHT. SIDED MORE WITH A WARMER MAV SOLUTION
AS DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT FOR MOST OF THE CWA WITH SKIES SCATTERING
OUT SEEMS THE MORE REASONABLE SOLUTION.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH THE AREA REMAINING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY DURING
THIS TIME. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AS A TROUGH PIVOTS
THROUGH...FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TOMORROW. OVERALL
EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS THOUGH FOR MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT WEST OF
THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WHICH COULD SEE FLURRIES THIS EVENING. DESPITE
DECENT FORCING ALOFT WITH THE MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES DURING THIS
PERIOD...LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP ANYTHING FROM FORMING...WITH THE
ONLY IMPACT FROM THE ENERGY THUS BEING INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

THE STRONGER CAA FINALLY DIPS SOUTH TONIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW DROPPING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. SIDED MORE WITH
THE MET FOR LOWS AND CONTINUED WITH THE TREND OF LEANING TO THE MAV
FOR THE HIGHS ON THURSDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RDGG OVER CWFA SFC UP THRU H5 FRI-FRI NGT. THUS KEPT BOTH PDS DRY.
SHUD HV PLENTY OF SUN DURING THE DAY. MSTR INCREASES FM THE SW AT
NGT...SPCLY AFTR MIDNGT. WL HV SKIES BCMG MOCLDY IN VA...NE OF PTMC
RIVER MAY AVG OUT PTCLDY.

GDNC CONTINUING TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION THRU THE WKND...WHICH
TAKES AN OPEN SRN STREAM WV WELL SOUTH OF THE CWFA SAT. LTST ECMWF
MUCH LESS DVLPD WRT CSTL LOW. NONETHELESS...THIS TRACK...AND A NRN
STREAM S/WV...WL BE SUFFICIENT TO TOSS LGT PCPN THIS WAY. COLD AIR
WL BE MARGINAL AT BEST...SUGGESTING THERE MAY BE A DIURNAL AND ELEV
COMPONENT TO PTYPE. STILL HV SNOWY/MIXED PDS...SPCLY W OF THE I-95
CRRDR. THE WETTEST PD MAY TURN OUT TO BE SAT NGT...WHICH WUD BE ABT
WHEN LOW WL TRANSFER ITS ENERGY TO THE COAST...AND WE/LL ALSO HV PVA
ALOFT. AM KEEPING SCHC/CHC POPS INTO SUNDAY...MORE OUT OF RESPECT TO
ECMWF...AND THE TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFS THAT LINGER.

SUBSIDENCE BLDS BHD THIS SYSTEM FOR SUN NGT-MON NGT. H5 FLOW STILL
QUITE ZNL...SO THERE WONT BE A LOT OF COLD AIR AVBL. HV TEMPS ONLY A
CPL DEGF BLO AVG. THERE MAY BE YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM ON THE
HORIZON BY DAY 7. WL BE GENERIC ATTM...AS THERE/S A LOT OF WX TO GET
THROUGH FIRST.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ON GOING IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS AT KIAD AND KDCA THIS
MORNING...WITH THE REMAINING AREA MVFR OR HIGHER. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE FOR THE NON IFR LOCATIONS STAYING ABV IFR. LOW CONFIDENCE
ON IMPROVEMENT TIME AT KIAD...THOUGH GUIDANCE INDICATES DIMINISHED
VIS/CIGS THRU AT LEAST 12Z. KDCA SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CIGS BY 14Z.

LIGHT FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST AFTER
DAYBREAK...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS MIXING IN BETWEEN 14-16Z.
GUSTS END BY 00Z TONIGHT...WITH W FLOW CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. OCNL GUSTS PSBL KDCA
OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAF.

VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

VFR FRI-FRI NGT. FLGT RESTRICTIONS SHUD OVERSPREAD TERMINALS SAT...
AND LINGER INTO ELY SUN. PCPN MAY BE ON THE LGT SIDE...WHICH WUD
SUGGEST THAT MVFR MAY PREVAIL...W/ PDS OF IFR. PTYPE STILL IN QSTN.
&&

.MARINE...
SCA IN EFFECT FOR TODAY FOR ALL WATERS WITH INCREASING WEST
WINDS...GUSTING UP TO 20 KTS. THE SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE COULD BE PERIODS TONIGHT WHERE
THE WINDS DROP BELOW 18 KTS...BUT THE WINDOW SMALL ENOUGH TO WARRANT
THE CONTINUATION OF THE SCA. THE SCA REMAINS ON ALL WATERS THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF THE GUSTS REMAINING ABV 18
KTS OVER JUST THE NORTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY MAINTAIN THE SCA THERE
TILL THURS EVENING.

HIPRES OVER THE WATERS FRI. WK LOPRES PASSING WELL S OVER THE WKND.
WHILE PCPN XPCTD TO REACH WATERS...THE GRADIENT SHUD BE ON THE LGT
SIDE. FOR THAT REASON...NO FLAGS XPCTD ATTM.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVEL DEPARTURES DOWN TO A FOOT OR SLIGHTLY LESS. THAT TREND
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ004>006-
     503>506.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ040-
     051>053-501-502-505-506.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>532-538>540.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ533>537-541>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/HTS
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...SEARS/HTS
MARINE...SEARS/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 170846
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
346 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COUPLE ISSUES OF CONCERN FOR THIS MORNING AS INITIAL COLD FRONT
SWINGS OFF TO THE EAST AND SECONDARY TROUGH MOVES THROUGH LATER THIS
MORNING. DESPITE THE WESTERLY WIND SHIFT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
EARLIER TONIGHT...WINDS STILL REMAINING LIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH A STILL MOISTURE THICK ENVIRONMENT
AS THE DRIER AIR HAS YET TO MOVE IN HAS RESULTED IN THE WIDESPREAD
FOG...WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG. AS SUCH...WITH ON GOING DENSE FOG
ACROSS CENTRAL MD/NORTHERN VA...MAINLY SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE
BALTIMORE/DC METRO AREAS AND THE BLUE RIDGE...HAVE DENSE FOG ADV IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA THRU 13Z. PATCHY FOG PSBL IN REMAINING AREAS
THRU AT LEAST DAYBREAK. GUIDANCE ALL OVER THE PLACE IN TRYING TO
CAPTURE THE REDUCED VIS WITH THE FOG FORMATION...BUT THINKING WILL
SEE CLEARING WEST TO EAST AS TROUGH PIVOTS THROUGH...INCREASING
WINDS AND USHERING IN THE DRIER AIR. DEPENDENT UPON TIMING...COULD
VERY WELL END UP SEEING THE ADV ENDING BEFORE 13Z.

SECOND CONCERN IS PCPN FOR THE AREAS WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.
08Z RADAR IMAGERY AND OBS INDICATING LIGHT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH AND WEAK SHORTWAVE POSITIONED OVER WESTERN WV/PA. INCREASING
WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD WORK TO GENERATE SCT UPSLOPE SHOWERS...WITH THE
BEST CHC THIS MORNING...THEN TAPERING OFF DURING THE AFTN. COLD AIR
HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE IN...AND AS SUCH CAN EXPECT MIX RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH ALL SNOW AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. THE PCPN IS VERY
LIGHT IN NATURE...AND ONLY A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW AT
MOST IS FORECASTED.

FOR TEMPS TODAY...CAA FAIRLY WEAK AS TROUGH ALOFT TURNS MORE
ZONAL...KEEPING THE COLDER TEMPS TO THE NORTH. THE BETTER SHOT OF
CAA NOT EXPECTED TILL TONIGHT. SIDED MORE WITH A WARMER MAV SOLUTION
AS DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT FOR MOST OF THE CWA WITH SKIES SCATTERING
OUT SEEMS THE MORE REASONABLE SOLUTION.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH THE AREA REMAINING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY DURING
THIS TIME. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AS A TROUGH PIVOTS
THROUGH...FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TOMORROW. OVERALL
EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS THOUGH FOR MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT WEST OF
THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WHICH COULD SEE FLURRIES THIS EVENING. DESPITE
DECENT FORCING ALOFT WITH THE MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES DURING THIS
PERIOD...LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP ANYTHING FROM FORMING...WITH THE
ONLY IMPACT FROM THE ENERGY THUS BEING INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

THE STRONGER CAA FINALLY DIPS SOUTH TONIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW DROPPING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. SIDED MORE WITH
THE MET FOR LOWS AND CONTINUED WITH THE TREND OF LEANING TO THE MAV
FOR THE HIGHS ON THURSDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RDGG OVER CWFA SFC UP THRU H5 FRI-FRI NGT. THUS KEPT BOTH PDS DRY.
SHUD HV PLENTY OF SUN DURING THE DAY. MSTR INCREASES FM THE SW AT
NGT...SPCLY AFTR MIDNGT. WL HV SKIES BCMG MOCLDY IN VA...NE OF PTMC
RIVER MAY AVG OUT PTCLDY.

GDNC CONTINUING TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION THRU THE WKND...WHICH
TAKES AN OPEN SRN STREAM WV WELL SOUTH OF THE CWFA SAT. LTST ECMWF
MUCH LESS DVLPD WRT CSTL LOW. NONETHELESS...THIS TRACK...AND A NRN
STREAM S/WV...WL BE SUFFICIENT TO TOSS LGT PCPN THIS WAY. COLD AIR
WL BE MARGINAL AT BEST...SUGGESTING THERE MAY BE A DIURNAL AND ELEV
COMPONENT TO PTYPE. STILL HV SNOWY/MIXED PDS...SPCLY W OF THE I-95
CRRDR. THE WETTEST PD MAY TURN OUT TO BE SAT NGT...WHICH WUD BE ABT
WHEN LOW WL TRANSFER ITS ENERGY TO THE COAST...AND WE/LL ALSO HV PVA
ALOFT. AM KEEPING SCHC/CHC POPS INTO SUNDAY...MORE OUT OF RESPECT TO
ECMWF...AND THE TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFS THAT LINGER.

SUBSIDENCE BLDS BHD THIS SYSTEM FOR SUN NGT-MON NGT. H5 FLOW STILL
QUITE ZNL...SO THERE WONT BE A LOT OF COLD AIR AVBL. HV TEMPS ONLY A
CPL DEGF BLO AVG. THERE MAY BE YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM ON THE
HORIZON BY DAY 7. WL BE GENERIC ATTM...AS THERE/S A LOT OF WX TO GET
THROUGH FIRST.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ON GOING IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS AT KIAD AND KDCA THIS
MORNING...WITH THE REMAINING AREA MVFR OR HIGHER. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE FOR THE NON IFR LOCATIONS STAYING ABV IFR. LOW CONFIDENCE
ON IMPROVEMENT TIME AT KIAD...THOUGH GUIDANCE INDICATES DIMINISHED
VIS/CIGS THRU AT LEAST 12Z. KDCA SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CIGS BY 14Z.

LIGHT FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST AFTER
DAYBREAK...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS MIXING IN BETWEEN 14-16Z.
GUSTS END BY 00Z TONIGHT...WITH W FLOW CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. OCNL GUSTS PSBL KDCA
OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAF.

VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

VFR FRI-FRI NGT. FLGT RESTRICTIONS SHUD OVERSPREAD TERMINALS SAT...
AND LINGER INTO ELY SUN. PCPN MAY BE ON THE LGT SIDE...WHICH WUD
SUGGEST THAT MVFR MAY PREVAIL...W/ PDS OF IFR. PTYPE STILL IN QSTN.
&&

.MARINE...
SCA IN EFFECT FOR TODAY FOR ALL WATERS WITH INCREASING WEST
WINDS...GUSTING UP TO 20 KTS. THE SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE COULD BE PERIODS TONIGHT WHERE
THE WINDS DROP BELOW 18 KTS...BUT THE WINDOW SMALL ENOUGH TO WARRANT
THE CONTINUATION OF THE SCA. THE SCA REMAINS ON ALL WATERS THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF THE GUSTS REMAINING ABV 18
KTS OVER JUST THE NORTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY MAINTAIN THE SCA THERE
TILL THURS EVENING.

HIPRES OVER THE WATERS FRI. WK LOPRES PASSING WELL S OVER THE WKND.
WHILE PCPN XPCTD TO REACH WATERS...THE GRADIENT SHUD BE ON THE LGT
SIDE. FOR THAT REASON...NO FLAGS XPCTD ATTM.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVEL DEPARTURES DOWN TO A FOOT OR SLIGHTLY LESS. THAT TREND
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ004>006-
     503>506.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ040-
     051>053-501-502-505-506.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>532-538>540.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ533>537-541>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/HTS
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...SEARS/HTS
MARINE...SEARS/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 170846
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
346 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COUPLE ISSUES OF CONCERN FOR THIS MORNING AS INITIAL COLD FRONT
SWINGS OFF TO THE EAST AND SECONDARY TROUGH MOVES THROUGH LATER THIS
MORNING. DESPITE THE WESTERLY WIND SHIFT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
EARLIER TONIGHT...WINDS STILL REMAINING LIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH A STILL MOISTURE THICK ENVIRONMENT
AS THE DRIER AIR HAS YET TO MOVE IN HAS RESULTED IN THE WIDESPREAD
FOG...WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG. AS SUCH...WITH ON GOING DENSE FOG
ACROSS CENTRAL MD/NORTHERN VA...MAINLY SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE
BALTIMORE/DC METRO AREAS AND THE BLUE RIDGE...HAVE DENSE FOG ADV IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA THRU 13Z. PATCHY FOG PSBL IN REMAINING AREAS
THRU AT LEAST DAYBREAK. GUIDANCE ALL OVER THE PLACE IN TRYING TO
CAPTURE THE REDUCED VIS WITH THE FOG FORMATION...BUT THINKING WILL
SEE CLEARING WEST TO EAST AS TROUGH PIVOTS THROUGH...INCREASING
WINDS AND USHERING IN THE DRIER AIR. DEPENDENT UPON TIMING...COULD
VERY WELL END UP SEEING THE ADV ENDING BEFORE 13Z.

SECOND CONCERN IS PCPN FOR THE AREAS WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.
08Z RADAR IMAGERY AND OBS INDICATING LIGHT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH AND WEAK SHORTWAVE POSITIONED OVER WESTERN WV/PA. INCREASING
WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD WORK TO GENERATE SCT UPSLOPE SHOWERS...WITH THE
BEST CHC THIS MORNING...THEN TAPERING OFF DURING THE AFTN. COLD AIR
HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE IN...AND AS SUCH CAN EXPECT MIX RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH ALL SNOW AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. THE PCPN IS VERY
LIGHT IN NATURE...AND ONLY A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW AT
MOST IS FORECASTED.

FOR TEMPS TODAY...CAA FAIRLY WEAK AS TROUGH ALOFT TURNS MORE
ZONAL...KEEPING THE COLDER TEMPS TO THE NORTH. THE BETTER SHOT OF
CAA NOT EXPECTED TILL TONIGHT. SIDED MORE WITH A WARMER MAV SOLUTION
AS DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT FOR MOST OF THE CWA WITH SKIES SCATTERING
OUT SEEMS THE MORE REASONABLE SOLUTION.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH THE AREA REMAINING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY DURING
THIS TIME. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AS A TROUGH PIVOTS
THROUGH...FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TOMORROW. OVERALL
EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS THOUGH FOR MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT WEST OF
THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WHICH COULD SEE FLURRIES THIS EVENING. DESPITE
DECENT FORCING ALOFT WITH THE MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES DURING THIS
PERIOD...LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP ANYTHING FROM FORMING...WITH THE
ONLY IMPACT FROM THE ENERGY THUS BEING INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

THE STRONGER CAA FINALLY DIPS SOUTH TONIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW DROPPING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. SIDED MORE WITH
THE MET FOR LOWS AND CONTINUED WITH THE TREND OF LEANING TO THE MAV
FOR THE HIGHS ON THURSDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RDGG OVER CWFA SFC UP THRU H5 FRI-FRI NGT. THUS KEPT BOTH PDS DRY.
SHUD HV PLENTY OF SUN DURING THE DAY. MSTR INCREASES FM THE SW AT
NGT...SPCLY AFTR MIDNGT. WL HV SKIES BCMG MOCLDY IN VA...NE OF PTMC
RIVER MAY AVG OUT PTCLDY.

GDNC CONTINUING TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION THRU THE WKND...WHICH
TAKES AN OPEN SRN STREAM WV WELL SOUTH OF THE CWFA SAT. LTST ECMWF
MUCH LESS DVLPD WRT CSTL LOW. NONETHELESS...THIS TRACK...AND A NRN
STREAM S/WV...WL BE SUFFICIENT TO TOSS LGT PCPN THIS WAY. COLD AIR
WL BE MARGINAL AT BEST...SUGGESTING THERE MAY BE A DIURNAL AND ELEV
COMPONENT TO PTYPE. STILL HV SNOWY/MIXED PDS...SPCLY W OF THE I-95
CRRDR. THE WETTEST PD MAY TURN OUT TO BE SAT NGT...WHICH WUD BE ABT
WHEN LOW WL TRANSFER ITS ENERGY TO THE COAST...AND WE/LL ALSO HV PVA
ALOFT. AM KEEPING SCHC/CHC POPS INTO SUNDAY...MORE OUT OF RESPECT TO
ECMWF...AND THE TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFS THAT LINGER.

SUBSIDENCE BLDS BHD THIS SYSTEM FOR SUN NGT-MON NGT. H5 FLOW STILL
QUITE ZNL...SO THERE WONT BE A LOT OF COLD AIR AVBL. HV TEMPS ONLY A
CPL DEGF BLO AVG. THERE MAY BE YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM ON THE
HORIZON BY DAY 7. WL BE GENERIC ATTM...AS THERE/S A LOT OF WX TO GET
THROUGH FIRST.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ON GOING IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS AT KIAD AND KDCA THIS
MORNING...WITH THE REMAINING AREA MVFR OR HIGHER. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE FOR THE NON IFR LOCATIONS STAYING ABV IFR. LOW CONFIDENCE
ON IMPROVEMENT TIME AT KIAD...THOUGH GUIDANCE INDICATES DIMINISHED
VIS/CIGS THRU AT LEAST 12Z. KDCA SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CIGS BY 14Z.

LIGHT FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST AFTER
DAYBREAK...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS MIXING IN BETWEEN 14-16Z.
GUSTS END BY 00Z TONIGHT...WITH W FLOW CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. OCNL GUSTS PSBL KDCA
OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAF.

VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

VFR FRI-FRI NGT. FLGT RESTRICTIONS SHUD OVERSPREAD TERMINALS SAT...
AND LINGER INTO ELY SUN. PCPN MAY BE ON THE LGT SIDE...WHICH WUD
SUGGEST THAT MVFR MAY PREVAIL...W/ PDS OF IFR. PTYPE STILL IN QSTN.
&&

.MARINE...
SCA IN EFFECT FOR TODAY FOR ALL WATERS WITH INCREASING WEST
WINDS...GUSTING UP TO 20 KTS. THE SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE COULD BE PERIODS TONIGHT WHERE
THE WINDS DROP BELOW 18 KTS...BUT THE WINDOW SMALL ENOUGH TO WARRANT
THE CONTINUATION OF THE SCA. THE SCA REMAINS ON ALL WATERS THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF THE GUSTS REMAINING ABV 18
KTS OVER JUST THE NORTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY MAINTAIN THE SCA THERE
TILL THURS EVENING.

HIPRES OVER THE WATERS FRI. WK LOPRES PASSING WELL S OVER THE WKND.
WHILE PCPN XPCTD TO REACH WATERS...THE GRADIENT SHUD BE ON THE LGT
SIDE. FOR THAT REASON...NO FLAGS XPCTD ATTM.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVEL DEPARTURES DOWN TO A FOOT OR SLIGHTLY LESS. THAT TREND
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ004>006-
     503>506.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ040-
     051>053-501-502-505-506.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>532-538>540.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ533>537-541>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/HTS
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...SEARS/HTS
MARINE...SEARS/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 170825
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
325 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY INTO
FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CDFNT WELL TO THE E AND OFFSHORE ATTM. DRYING WNW FLO
DEVELOPING...AND WILL PROVIDE A DECENT MID DEC DAY ACRS THE FA.
RESIDUAL MOISTURE LINGERS ATTM IN FORM OF ST AND PATCHY FOG...ESP
E OF I 95 TO THE CST. MIXING HAS SCOURED OUT MUCH OF THAT LO LVL
MOISTURE (WELL) INLAND...AND XPCD TO DO SO INTO THE MID MRNG HRS.
A PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON THE WAY...W/ HI TEMPS IN THE L/M50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY/ZONAL FLO WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH FRI. WK SFC HI PRES
WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE MDATLC RGN FM THE W. A COUPLE OF WK
SYSTEMS ALOFT TRACKING W-E IN FAST FLO ALOFT THROUGH END OF THE
WK...XPCG SKY CONDS FM MSTLY CLR TO PCLDY. HI TEMPS THU AND FRI
RANGING FM THE L40S N TO ARND 50F S. LO TEMPS MNLY RANGING FM THE
U20S TO M30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONTINUE TO FAVOR A BLENDED SOLUTION LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF AND
ITS MEMBER ENSEMBLES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRIMARY
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS IN REGARDS TO THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER
PATTERN AND THE EVENTUAL STORM TRACK OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COAST LATER FRIDAY. WHILE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE BEEN LITERALLY ALL OVER THE MAP WITH THIS
SYSTEM, THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE OPERATIONAL
CANADIAN REMAIN THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM.

MODELS CAN AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL BE
RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE AREA TO BEGIN THE FORECAST PERIOD FRIDAY
NIGHT. ALSO WIDESPREAD CONSENSUS IN INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AS DEVELOPING UPPER
DISTURBANCE SLIDES NE FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS THE
MID-SOUTH BY 12Z SATURDAY, WITH SFC CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING FRIDAY
NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST. DESPITE SOME CONTINUED TEMPORAL
DIFFERENCES, MODELS ARE MORE OR LESS COMING INTO CONSENSUS WITH
DEPICTION OF A LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER SYSTEM. THE RESULTANT STORM
TRACK WOULD TRACK SFC LOW ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST EARLY SUNDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE AND ANALOGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
OVERRUNNING PCPN QUICKLY INCREASING, WITH LIKELY POPS APPEARING
REASONABLE BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. GIVEN THE TRACK AND THE TRANSIENT, RELATIVELY WEAK SFC
HIGH TO THE NORTH, STILL APPEARS TO BE JUST A COLD RAIN FOR OUR
AREA (HAVE ADDED SLGT CHC IP FOR ABT NW 1/2 HALF OF FA LT FRI
NGT/SAT MRNG GIVEN MDL SOUNDINGS SHOWING IP PROFILE OVR INLAND
PORTIONS OF FA AS PCPN ARRIVES). HAVE HELD ON TO SOME SNOW SHRA
MENTION SAT NIGHT OVER INTERIOR ZONES AS FEW SNOWFLAKES WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS PCPN COMES TO AN END SATURDAY NIGHT/ERY SUN MORNING.
OTHERWISE, PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END QUICKLY INLAND AS SYSTEM
PUSHES E-NE OFFSHORE SUNDAY AFTN/EVE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD, REACHING ABOVE CLIMO BY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM, WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...THE MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS THAT AFFECTED THE TAF SITES
HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. IFR/MVFR CONDS HAVE CONTINUED OVER ALL
LOCATIONS...AND WILL CONTINUE UNTIL DRIER AIR MOVES IN. W TO NW
WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY TODAY. A FEW GUSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY AT SBY. WINDS DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED ALONG WITH PERIODS OF IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRNT WILL PUSH FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS MORNG WITH WLY FLOW
LEFT IN ITS WAKE. SFC HI PRES THEN SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W TDA THRU
FRI. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE W/NW THRU THE PERIOD. DID HOIST A SCA
FOR NRN CSTL WTRS TNGT WHERE 20-25 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO A
TROF OF LO PRES SLIDING THRU AND SUBSEQUENT CAA SURGE. MAY COME
CLOSE TO CRITERIA OVR THE NRN BAY AS WELL SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR...MAY ALSO BE BRIEF ENUF TO HANDLE WITH A MWS IF NEC.
OTWS...SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS MAINLY 3-4 FT WITH WAVES OVR THE BAY 2-3
FT. SIMILAR CONDS INTO THU AND FRI WITH JUST A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
WINDS EACH DAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A CSTL LO THAT WILL TRACK UP
NEAR THE CAROLINA CST THIS WEEKEND. CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE
DICTATED BY THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS LO...FOR WHICH THERE`S
STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...ALB/MAM
AVIATION...MAS/LSA
MARINE...MAS






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 170825
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
325 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY INTO
FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CDFNT WELL TO THE E AND OFFSHORE ATTM. DRYING WNW FLO
DEVELOPING...AND WILL PROVIDE A DECENT MID DEC DAY ACRS THE FA.
RESIDUAL MOISTURE LINGERS ATTM IN FORM OF ST AND PATCHY FOG...ESP
E OF I 95 TO THE CST. MIXING HAS SCOURED OUT MUCH OF THAT LO LVL
MOISTURE (WELL) INLAND...AND XPCD TO DO SO INTO THE MID MRNG HRS.
A PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON THE WAY...W/ HI TEMPS IN THE L/M50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY/ZONAL FLO WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH FRI. WK SFC HI PRES
WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE MDATLC RGN FM THE W. A COUPLE OF WK
SYSTEMS ALOFT TRACKING W-E IN FAST FLO ALOFT THROUGH END OF THE
WK...XPCG SKY CONDS FM MSTLY CLR TO PCLDY. HI TEMPS THU AND FRI
RANGING FM THE L40S N TO ARND 50F S. LO TEMPS MNLY RANGING FM THE
U20S TO M30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONTINUE TO FAVOR A BLENDED SOLUTION LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF AND
ITS MEMBER ENSEMBLES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRIMARY
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS IN REGARDS TO THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER
PATTERN AND THE EVENTUAL STORM TRACK OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COAST LATER FRIDAY. WHILE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE BEEN LITERALLY ALL OVER THE MAP WITH THIS
SYSTEM, THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE OPERATIONAL
CANADIAN REMAIN THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM.

MODELS CAN AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL BE
RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE AREA TO BEGIN THE FORECAST PERIOD FRIDAY
NIGHT. ALSO WIDESPREAD CONSENSUS IN INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AS DEVELOPING UPPER
DISTURBANCE SLIDES NE FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS THE
MID-SOUTH BY 12Z SATURDAY, WITH SFC CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING FRIDAY
NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST. DESPITE SOME CONTINUED TEMPORAL
DIFFERENCES, MODELS ARE MORE OR LESS COMING INTO CONSENSUS WITH
DEPICTION OF A LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER SYSTEM. THE RESULTANT STORM
TRACK WOULD TRACK SFC LOW ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST EARLY SUNDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE AND ANALOGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
OVERRUNNING PCPN QUICKLY INCREASING, WITH LIKELY POPS APPEARING
REASONABLE BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. GIVEN THE TRACK AND THE TRANSIENT, RELATIVELY WEAK SFC
HIGH TO THE NORTH, STILL APPEARS TO BE JUST A COLD RAIN FOR OUR
AREA (HAVE ADDED SLGT CHC IP FOR ABT NW 1/2 HALF OF FA LT FRI
NGT/SAT MRNG GIVEN MDL SOUNDINGS SHOWING IP PROFILE OVR INLAND
PORTIONS OF FA AS PCPN ARRIVES). HAVE HELD ON TO SOME SNOW SHRA
MENTION SAT NIGHT OVER INTERIOR ZONES AS FEW SNOWFLAKES WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS PCPN COMES TO AN END SATURDAY NIGHT/ERY SUN MORNING.
OTHERWISE, PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END QUICKLY INLAND AS SYSTEM
PUSHES E-NE OFFSHORE SUNDAY AFTN/EVE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD, REACHING ABOVE CLIMO BY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM, WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...THE MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS THAT AFFECTED THE TAF SITES
HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. IFR/MVFR CONDS HAVE CONTINUED OVER ALL
LOCATIONS...AND WILL CONTINUE UNTIL DRIER AIR MOVES IN. W TO NW
WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY TODAY. A FEW GUSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY AT SBY. WINDS DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED ALONG WITH PERIODS OF IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRNT WILL PUSH FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS MORNG WITH WLY FLOW
LEFT IN ITS WAKE. SFC HI PRES THEN SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W TDA THRU
FRI. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE W/NW THRU THE PERIOD. DID HOIST A SCA
FOR NRN CSTL WTRS TNGT WHERE 20-25 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO A
TROF OF LO PRES SLIDING THRU AND SUBSEQUENT CAA SURGE. MAY COME
CLOSE TO CRITERIA OVR THE NRN BAY AS WELL SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR...MAY ALSO BE BRIEF ENUF TO HANDLE WITH A MWS IF NEC.
OTWS...SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS MAINLY 3-4 FT WITH WAVES OVR THE BAY 2-3
FT. SIMILAR CONDS INTO THU AND FRI WITH JUST A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
WINDS EACH DAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A CSTL LO THAT WILL TRACK UP
NEAR THE CAROLINA CST THIS WEEKEND. CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE
DICTATED BY THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS LO...FOR WHICH THERE`S
STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...ALB/MAM
AVIATION...MAS/LSA
MARINE...MAS






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 170825
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
325 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY INTO
FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CDFNT WELL TO THE E AND OFFSHORE ATTM. DRYING WNW FLO
DEVELOPING...AND WILL PROVIDE A DECENT MID DEC DAY ACRS THE FA.
RESIDUAL MOISTURE LINGERS ATTM IN FORM OF ST AND PATCHY FOG...ESP
E OF I 95 TO THE CST. MIXING HAS SCOURED OUT MUCH OF THAT LO LVL
MOISTURE (WELL) INLAND...AND XPCD TO DO SO INTO THE MID MRNG HRS.
A PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON THE WAY...W/ HI TEMPS IN THE L/M50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY/ZONAL FLO WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH FRI. WK SFC HI PRES
WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE MDATLC RGN FM THE W. A COUPLE OF WK
SYSTEMS ALOFT TRACKING W-E IN FAST FLO ALOFT THROUGH END OF THE
WK...XPCG SKY CONDS FM MSTLY CLR TO PCLDY. HI TEMPS THU AND FRI
RANGING FM THE L40S N TO ARND 50F S. LO TEMPS MNLY RANGING FM THE
U20S TO M30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONTINUE TO FAVOR A BLENDED SOLUTION LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF AND
ITS MEMBER ENSEMBLES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRIMARY
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS IN REGARDS TO THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER
PATTERN AND THE EVENTUAL STORM TRACK OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COAST LATER FRIDAY. WHILE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE BEEN LITERALLY ALL OVER THE MAP WITH THIS
SYSTEM, THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE OPERATIONAL
CANADIAN REMAIN THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM.

MODELS CAN AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL BE
RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE AREA TO BEGIN THE FORECAST PERIOD FRIDAY
NIGHT. ALSO WIDESPREAD CONSENSUS IN INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AS DEVELOPING UPPER
DISTURBANCE SLIDES NE FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS THE
MID-SOUTH BY 12Z SATURDAY, WITH SFC CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING FRIDAY
NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST. DESPITE SOME CONTINUED TEMPORAL
DIFFERENCES, MODELS ARE MORE OR LESS COMING INTO CONSENSUS WITH
DEPICTION OF A LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER SYSTEM. THE RESULTANT STORM
TRACK WOULD TRACK SFC LOW ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST EARLY SUNDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE AND ANALOGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
OVERRUNNING PCPN QUICKLY INCREASING, WITH LIKELY POPS APPEARING
REASONABLE BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. GIVEN THE TRACK AND THE TRANSIENT, RELATIVELY WEAK SFC
HIGH TO THE NORTH, STILL APPEARS TO BE JUST A COLD RAIN FOR OUR
AREA (HAVE ADDED SLGT CHC IP FOR ABT NW 1/2 HALF OF FA LT FRI
NGT/SAT MRNG GIVEN MDL SOUNDINGS SHOWING IP PROFILE OVR INLAND
PORTIONS OF FA AS PCPN ARRIVES). HAVE HELD ON TO SOME SNOW SHRA
MENTION SAT NIGHT OVER INTERIOR ZONES AS FEW SNOWFLAKES WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS PCPN COMES TO AN END SATURDAY NIGHT/ERY SUN MORNING.
OTHERWISE, PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END QUICKLY INLAND AS SYSTEM
PUSHES E-NE OFFSHORE SUNDAY AFTN/EVE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD, REACHING ABOVE CLIMO BY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM, WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...THE MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS THAT AFFECTED THE TAF SITES
HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. IFR/MVFR CONDS HAVE CONTINUED OVER ALL
LOCATIONS...AND WILL CONTINUE UNTIL DRIER AIR MOVES IN. W TO NW
WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY TODAY. A FEW GUSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY AT SBY. WINDS DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED ALONG WITH PERIODS OF IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRNT WILL PUSH FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS MORNG WITH WLY FLOW
LEFT IN ITS WAKE. SFC HI PRES THEN SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W TDA THRU
FRI. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE W/NW THRU THE PERIOD. DID HOIST A SCA
FOR NRN CSTL WTRS TNGT WHERE 20-25 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO A
TROF OF LO PRES SLIDING THRU AND SUBSEQUENT CAA SURGE. MAY COME
CLOSE TO CRITERIA OVR THE NRN BAY AS WELL SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR...MAY ALSO BE BRIEF ENUF TO HANDLE WITH A MWS IF NEC.
OTWS...SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS MAINLY 3-4 FT WITH WAVES OVR THE BAY 2-3
FT. SIMILAR CONDS INTO THU AND FRI WITH JUST A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
WINDS EACH DAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A CSTL LO THAT WILL TRACK UP
NEAR THE CAROLINA CST THIS WEEKEND. CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE
DICTATED BY THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS LO...FOR WHICH THERE`S
STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...ALB/MAM
AVIATION...MAS/LSA
MARINE...MAS







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 170823
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
323 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY INTO
FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CDFNT WELL TO THE E AND OFFSHORE ATTM. DRYING WNW FLO
DEVELOPING...AND WILL PROVIDE A DECENT MID DEC DAY ACRS THE FA.
RESIDUAL MOISTURE LINGERS ATTM IN FORM OF ST AND PATCHY FOG...ESP
E OF I 95 TO THE CST. MIXING HAS SCOURED OUT MUCH OF THAT LO LVL
MOISTURE (WELL) INLAND...AND XPCD TO DO SO INTO THE MID MRNG HRS.
A PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON THE WAY...W/ HI TEMPS IN THE L/M50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY/ZONAL FLO WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH FRI. WK SFC HI PRES
WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE MDATLC RGN FM THE W. A COUPLE OF WK
SYSTEMS ALOFT TRACKING W-E IN FAST FLO ALOFT THROUGH END OF THE
WK...XPCG SKY CONDS FM MSTLY CLR TO PCLDY. HI TEMPS THU AND FRI
RANGING FM THE L40S N TO ARND 50F S. LO TEMPS MNLY RANGING FM THE
U20S TO M30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONTINUE TO FAVOR A BLENDED SOLUTION LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF AND
ITS MEMBER ENSEMBLES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRIMARY
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS IN REGARDS TO THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER
PATTERN AND THE EVENTUAL STORM TRACK OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COAST LATER FRIDAY. WHILE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE BEEN LITERALLY ALL OVER THE MAP WITH THIS
SYSTEM, THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE OPERATIONAL
CANADIAN REMAIN THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM.

MODELS CAN AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL BE
RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE AREA TO BEGIN THE FORECAST PERIOD FRIDAY
NIGHT. ALSO WIDESPREAD CONSENSUS IN INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AS DEVELOPING UPPER
DISTURBANCE SLIDES NE FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS THE
MID-SOUTH BY 12Z SATURDAY, WITH SFC CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING FRIDAY
NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST. DESPITE SOME CONTINUED TEMPORAL
DIFFERENCES, MODELS ARE MORE OR LESS COMING INTO CONSENSUS WITH
DEPICTION OF A LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER SYSTEM. THE RESULTANT STORM
TRACK WOULD TRACK SFC LOW ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST EARLY SUNDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE AND ANALOGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
OVERRUNNING PCPN QUICKLY INCREASING, WITH LIKELY POPS APPEARING
REASONABLE BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. GIVEN THE TRACK AND THE TRANSIENT, RELATIVELY WEAK SFC
HIGH TO THE NORTH, STILL APPEARS TO BE JUST A COLD RAIN FOR OUR
AREA (HAVE ADDED SLGT CHC IP FOR ABT NW 1/2 HALF OF FA LT FRI
NGT/SAT MRNG GIVEN MDL SOUNDINGS SHOWING IP PROFILE OVR INLAND
PORTIONS OF FA AS PCPN ARRIVES). HAVE HELD ON TO SOME SNOW SHRA
MENTION SAT NIGHT OVER INTERIOR ZONES AS FEW SNOWFLAKES WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS PCPN COMES TO AN END SATURDAY NIGHT/ERY SUN MORNING.
OTHERWISE, PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END QUICKLY INLAND AS SYSTEM
PUSHES E-NE OFFSHORE SUNDAY AFTN/EVE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD, REACHING ABOVE CLIMO BY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM, WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...THE MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS THAT AFFECTED THE TAF SITES
HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. IFR/MVFR CONDS HAVE CONTINUED OVER ALL
LOCATIONS...AND WILL CONTINUE UNTIL DRIER AIR MOVES IN. W TO NW
WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY TODAY. A FEW GUSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY AT SBY. WINDS DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED ALONG WITH PERIODS OF IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS MORNG WITH WLY FLOW
LEFT IN ITS WAKE. SFC HI PRES THEN SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W TDA THRU
FRI. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE W/NW THRU THE PERIOD. DID HOIST A SCA
FOR NRN CSTL WTRS TNGT WHERE 20-25 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO A
TROF OF LO PRES SLIDING THRU AND SUBSEQUENT CAA SURGE. MAY COME
CLOSE TO CRITERIA OVR THE NRN BAY AS WELL SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR...MAY BE BRIEF ENUF TO HANDLE WITH A MWS IF NEC. OTWS...SEAS
OVR CSTL WTRS MAINLY 3-4 FT WITH WAVES OVR THE BAY 2-3 FT. SIMILAR
CONDS INTO THU AND FRI WITH JUST A SLIGHT DECREASE IN WINDS EACH
DAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A CSTL LO THAT WILL TRACK UP NEAR THE
CAROLINA CST THIS WEEKEND. CHANCE FO SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE DICTATED
BY THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS LO...FOR WHICH THERE`S STILL A LOT
OF UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...ALB/MAM
AVIATION...MAS/LSA
MARINE...MAS

































000
FXUS61 KAKQ 170823
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
323 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY INTO
FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CDFNT WELL TO THE E AND OFFSHORE ATTM. DRYING WNW FLO
DEVELOPING...AND WILL PROVIDE A DECENT MID DEC DAY ACRS THE FA.
RESIDUAL MOISTURE LINGERS ATTM IN FORM OF ST AND PATCHY FOG...ESP
E OF I 95 TO THE CST. MIXING HAS SCOURED OUT MUCH OF THAT LO LVL
MOISTURE (WELL) INLAND...AND XPCD TO DO SO INTO THE MID MRNG HRS.
A PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON THE WAY...W/ HI TEMPS IN THE L/M50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY/ZONAL FLO WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH FRI. WK SFC HI PRES
WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE MDATLC RGN FM THE W. A COUPLE OF WK
SYSTEMS ALOFT TRACKING W-E IN FAST FLO ALOFT THROUGH END OF THE
WK...XPCG SKY CONDS FM MSTLY CLR TO PCLDY. HI TEMPS THU AND FRI
RANGING FM THE L40S N TO ARND 50F S. LO TEMPS MNLY RANGING FM THE
U20S TO M30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONTINUE TO FAVOR A BLENDED SOLUTION LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF AND
ITS MEMBER ENSEMBLES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRIMARY
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS IN REGARDS TO THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER
PATTERN AND THE EVENTUAL STORM TRACK OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COAST LATER FRIDAY. WHILE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE BEEN LITERALLY ALL OVER THE MAP WITH THIS
SYSTEM, THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE OPERATIONAL
CANADIAN REMAIN THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM.

MODELS CAN AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL BE
RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE AREA TO BEGIN THE FORECAST PERIOD FRIDAY
NIGHT. ALSO WIDESPREAD CONSENSUS IN INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AS DEVELOPING UPPER
DISTURBANCE SLIDES NE FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS THE
MID-SOUTH BY 12Z SATURDAY, WITH SFC CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING FRIDAY
NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST. DESPITE SOME CONTINUED TEMPORAL
DIFFERENCES, MODELS ARE MORE OR LESS COMING INTO CONSENSUS WITH
DEPICTION OF A LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER SYSTEM. THE RESULTANT STORM
TRACK WOULD TRACK SFC LOW ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST EARLY SUNDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE AND ANALOGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
OVERRUNNING PCPN QUICKLY INCREASING, WITH LIKELY POPS APPEARING
REASONABLE BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. GIVEN THE TRACK AND THE TRANSIENT, RELATIVELY WEAK SFC
HIGH TO THE NORTH, STILL APPEARS TO BE JUST A COLD RAIN FOR OUR
AREA (HAVE ADDED SLGT CHC IP FOR ABT NW 1/2 HALF OF FA LT FRI
NGT/SAT MRNG GIVEN MDL SOUNDINGS SHOWING IP PROFILE OVR INLAND
PORTIONS OF FA AS PCPN ARRIVES). HAVE HELD ON TO SOME SNOW SHRA
MENTION SAT NIGHT OVER INTERIOR ZONES AS FEW SNOWFLAKES WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS PCPN COMES TO AN END SATURDAY NIGHT/ERY SUN MORNING.
OTHERWISE, PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END QUICKLY INLAND AS SYSTEM
PUSHES E-NE OFFSHORE SUNDAY AFTN/EVE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD, REACHING ABOVE CLIMO BY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM, WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...THE MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS THAT AFFECTED THE TAF SITES
HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. IFR/MVFR CONDS HAVE CONTINUED OVER ALL
LOCATIONS...AND WILL CONTINUE UNTIL DRIER AIR MOVES IN. W TO NW
WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY TODAY. A FEW GUSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY AT SBY. WINDS DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED ALONG WITH PERIODS OF IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS MORNG WITH WLY FLOW
LEFT IN ITS WAKE. SFC HI PRES THEN SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W TDA THRU
FRI. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE W/NW THRU THE PERIOD. DID HOIST A SCA
FOR NRN CSTL WTRS TNGT WHERE 20-25 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO A
TROF OF LO PRES SLIDING THRU AND SUBSEQUENT CAA SURGE. MAY COME
CLOSE TO CRITERIA OVR THE NRN BAY AS WELL SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR...MAY BE BRIEF ENUF TO HANDLE WITH A MWS IF NEC. OTWS...SEAS
OVR CSTL WTRS MAINLY 3-4 FT WITH WAVES OVR THE BAY 2-3 FT. SIMILAR
CONDS INTO THU AND FRI WITH JUST A SLIGHT DECREASE IN WINDS EACH
DAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A CSTL LO THAT WILL TRACK UP NEAR THE
CAROLINA CST THIS WEEKEND. CHANCE FO SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE DICTATED
BY THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS LO...FOR WHICH THERE`S STILL A LOT
OF UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...ALB/MAM
AVIATION...MAS/LSA
MARINE...MAS
































000
FXUS61 KAKQ 170823
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
323 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY INTO
FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CDFNT WELL TO THE E AND OFFSHORE ATTM. DRYING WNW FLO
DEVELOPING...AND WILL PROVIDE A DECENT MID DEC DAY ACRS THE FA.
RESIDUAL MOISTURE LINGERS ATTM IN FORM OF ST AND PATCHY FOG...ESP
E OF I 95 TO THE CST. MIXING HAS SCOURED OUT MUCH OF THAT LO LVL
MOISTURE (WELL) INLAND...AND XPCD TO DO SO INTO THE MID MRNG HRS.
A PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON THE WAY...W/ HI TEMPS IN THE L/M50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY/ZONAL FLO WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH FRI. WK SFC HI PRES
WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE MDATLC RGN FM THE W. A COUPLE OF WK
SYSTEMS ALOFT TRACKING W-E IN FAST FLO ALOFT THROUGH END OF THE
WK...XPCG SKY CONDS FM MSTLY CLR TO PCLDY. HI TEMPS THU AND FRI
RANGING FM THE L40S N TO ARND 50F S. LO TEMPS MNLY RANGING FM THE
U20S TO M30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONTINUE TO FAVOR A BLENDED SOLUTION LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF AND
ITS MEMBER ENSEMBLES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRIMARY
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS IN REGARDS TO THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER
PATTERN AND THE EVENTUAL STORM TRACK OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COAST LATER FRIDAY. WHILE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE BEEN LITERALLY ALL OVER THE MAP WITH THIS
SYSTEM, THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE OPERATIONAL
CANADIAN REMAIN THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM.

MODELS CAN AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL BE
RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE AREA TO BEGIN THE FORECAST PERIOD FRIDAY
NIGHT. ALSO WIDESPREAD CONSENSUS IN INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AS DEVELOPING UPPER
DISTURBANCE SLIDES NE FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS THE
MID-SOUTH BY 12Z SATURDAY, WITH SFC CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING FRIDAY
NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST. DESPITE SOME CONTINUED TEMPORAL
DIFFERENCES, MODELS ARE MORE OR LESS COMING INTO CONSENSUS WITH
DEPICTION OF A LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER SYSTEM. THE RESULTANT STORM
TRACK WOULD TRACK SFC LOW ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST EARLY SUNDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE AND ANALOGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
OVERRUNNING PCPN QUICKLY INCREASING, WITH LIKELY POPS APPEARING
REASONABLE BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. GIVEN THE TRACK AND THE TRANSIENT, RELATIVELY WEAK SFC
HIGH TO THE NORTH, STILL APPEARS TO BE JUST A COLD RAIN FOR OUR
AREA (HAVE ADDED SLGT CHC IP FOR ABT NW 1/2 HALF OF FA LT FRI
NGT/SAT MRNG GIVEN MDL SOUNDINGS SHOWING IP PROFILE OVR INLAND
PORTIONS OF FA AS PCPN ARRIVES). HAVE HELD ON TO SOME SNOW SHRA
MENTION SAT NIGHT OVER INTERIOR ZONES AS FEW SNOWFLAKES WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS PCPN COMES TO AN END SATURDAY NIGHT/ERY SUN MORNING.
OTHERWISE, PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END QUICKLY INLAND AS SYSTEM
PUSHES E-NE OFFSHORE SUNDAY AFTN/EVE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD, REACHING ABOVE CLIMO BY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM, WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...THE MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS THAT AFFECTED THE TAF SITES
HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. IFR/MVFR CONDS HAVE CONTINUED OVER ALL
LOCATIONS...AND WILL CONTINUE UNTIL DRIER AIR MOVES IN. W TO NW
WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY TODAY. A FEW GUSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY AT SBY. WINDS DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED ALONG WITH PERIODS OF IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS MORNG WITH WLY FLOW
LEFT IN ITS WAKE. SFC HI PRES THEN SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W TDA THRU
FRI. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE W/NW THRU THE PERIOD. DID HOIST A SCA
FOR NRN CSTL WTRS TNGT WHERE 20-25 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO A
TROF OF LO PRES SLIDING THRU AND SUBSEQUENT CAA SURGE. MAY COME
CLOSE TO CRITERIA OVR THE NRN BAY AS WELL SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR...MAY BE BRIEF ENUF TO HANDLE WITH A MWS IF NEC. OTWS...SEAS
OVR CSTL WTRS MAINLY 3-4 FT WITH WAVES OVR THE BAY 2-3 FT. SIMILAR
CONDS INTO THU AND FRI WITH JUST A SLIGHT DECREASE IN WINDS EACH
DAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A CSTL LO THAT WILL TRACK UP NEAR THE
CAROLINA CST THIS WEEKEND. CHANCE FO SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE DICTATED
BY THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS LO...FOR WHICH THERE`S STILL A LOT
OF UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...ALB/MAM
AVIATION...MAS/LSA
MARINE...MAS

































000
FXUS61 KAKQ 170547
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1247 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA AND MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST REGIONAL MOSAIC DEPICTS BRUNT OF SHOWERS HAVE PUSHED
OFFSHORE EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE COLD FRONT STILL
REMAINS OVER WRN VA. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY VISIBLE ON WATER
VAPOR WILL CROSS NRN NC THIS EVENING AS WINDS INCREASE ALOFT.
UPSTREAM PV ANOMALY WILL ALSO ENHANCE UVM OVER THE SE LOCAL AREA.
IN THE LOW LEVELS...MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL EXIST ALONG THE COAST
INTO SE VA/NE NC. THE RESULT IS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
THE ERN LOCAL AREA IN WAKE OF EARLIER SHOWERS/CONVECTION. WILL
MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWER WORDING GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A
LINE FROM ROANOKE RAPIDS NC TO NEWPORT NEWS VA AND SALISBURY MD
THRU THE EVENING. ANY LEFTOVER INSTABILITY HAS BEEN LOST...SO DO
NOT ANTICIPATE ANY ADDITIONAL THUNDER. TROUGH AXIS ALIGNS ALONG
THE COAST LATE THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE COAST.
THIS WILL BRING AN END TO PRECIP CHANCES BY MIDNIGHT. WLY FLOW
WILL BEGIN TO DRY THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OUT...FIRST OVER THE
PIEDMONT AND EXPANDING EWD THRU THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE HANDLING THE SKIES AND WINDS WELL...SO
TRENDED OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THAT DIRECTION. LOWS GENERALLY
UNCHANGED IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WED THRU FRI...AS MAINLY ZONAL
FLOW/DRY WNW WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE REGION. LO PRES WILL BE MOVNG
AWAY TO THE NE INTO THE NRN ATLC...AS SFC HI PRES GRADUALLY BLDS
IN FM THE NW. EXPECT GENERALLY A MOSTLY CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY
SKY THRU THE PERIOD. HIGHS ON WED IN THE MID TO UPR 50S...RANGING
FM THE LWR 40S TO LWR 50S THU...AND IN THE MID TO UPR 40S FRI.
LOWS WED NGT AND THU NGT RANGING FM THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONTINUE TO FAVOR A BLENDED SOLUTION LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF AND
ITS MEMBER ENSEMBLES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRIMARY
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS IN REGARDS TO THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER
PATTERN AND THE EVENTUAL STORM TRACK OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COAST LATER FRIDAY. WHILE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE BEEN LITERALLY ALL OVER THE MAP WITH THIS
SYSTEM, THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE OPERATIONAL
CANADIAN REMAIN THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM.

MODELS CAN AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL BE
RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE AREA TO BEGIN THE FORECAST PERIOD FRIDAY
NIGHT. ALSO WIDESPREAD CONSENSUS IN INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AS DEVELOPING UPPER
DISTURBANCE SLIDES NE FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS THE
MID-SOUTH BY 12Z SATURDAY, WITH SFC CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING FRIDAY
NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST. DESPITE SOME CONTINUED TEMPORAL
DIFFERENCES, MODELS ARE MORE OR LESS COMING INTO CONSENSUS WITH
DEPICTION OF A LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER SYSTEM. THE RESULTANT STORM
TRACK WOULD TRACK SFC LOW ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST EARLY SUNDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE AND ANALOGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
OVERRUNNING PCPN QUICKLY INCREASING, WITH LIKELY POPS APPEARING
REASONABLE BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. GIVEN THE TRACK AND THE TRANSIENT, RELATIVELY WEAK SFC
HIGH TO THE NORTH, STILL APPEARS TO BE JUST A COLD RAIN FOR OUR
AREA. HAVE HELD ON TO SOME SNOW SHRA MENTION SAT NIGHT OVER INTERIOR
ZONES AS FEW SNOWFLAKES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS PCPN COMES TO AN END
SATURDAY NIGHT/ERY SUN MORNING. OTHERWISE, PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN
END QUICKLY INLAND AS SYSTEM PUSHES E-NE OFFSHORE SUNDAY AFTN/EVE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD, REACHING
ABOVE CLIMO BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM, WHICH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...THE MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS THAT AFFECTED THE TAF SITES
HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. IFR/MVFR CONDS HAVE CONTINUED OVER ALL
LOCATIONS...AND WILL CONTINUE UNTIL DRIER AIR MOVES IN. W TO NW
WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY TODAY. A FEW GUSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY AT SBY. WINDS DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED ALONG WITH PERIODS OF IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT SUB-SCA S-SE FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTN
AS WEAK SFC HIGH PRES PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE AND SFC COLD FRNT
APPROACHES FM THE W. ARW/RUC HAVE HANDLED WINDS WELL THUS FAR AND HV
LEANED IN ITS DIRECTION WITH TIMING OF SFC COLD FRONT PASSAGE THIS
EVENING. WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND INCREASE
TO 10-15 KT, 15-20 KT OVER CSTL WTRS. SEAS REMAIN SUB-SCA, BUT
INCREASE TO 3-4 FT, HIGHEST OFFSHORE AND OVER NORTHERN WATERS.

CHOPPY, ALBEIT SUB-SCA SEAS WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE SYSTEM, WITH WAVE
PD INCREASING TO 10-12 SEC TOMORROW AFTN AND EVENING. DO HAVE THE
CHANCE FOR A FEW GUSTS TO LOW END SCA OVER NORTHERN WATERS, BUT HV
HELD OFF WITH ANY HEADLINES WITH PREDOMINATE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
BE SUB-SCA. SFC HI PRES THEN SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST WED NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...WITH GENERALLY
NW WINDS THRU THE PERIOD. REINFORCING CAA SURGE THU NIGHT MAY BRING
WINDS CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS OVR BAY / NRN WTRS...BUT STILL A WAYS
OUT FOR US TO MONITOR FOR A FEW MORE FORECAST CYCLES.

LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF FRIDAY, PUSHING
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND OFF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS SAT
NIGHT/SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME, EXPECT SUB-SCA CONDS TO PERSIST THROUGH
THIS TIME FRAME, THOUGH LOOK FOR WINDS TO BACK FROM THE NE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY TO THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND SUN NGT BEHIND THE
SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...MAS/LSA
MARINE...MAM







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 170547
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1247 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA AND MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST REGIONAL MOSAIC DEPICTS BRUNT OF SHOWERS HAVE PUSHED
OFFSHORE EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE COLD FRONT STILL
REMAINS OVER WRN VA. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY VISIBLE ON WATER
VAPOR WILL CROSS NRN NC THIS EVENING AS WINDS INCREASE ALOFT.
UPSTREAM PV ANOMALY WILL ALSO ENHANCE UVM OVER THE SE LOCAL AREA.
IN THE LOW LEVELS...MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL EXIST ALONG THE COAST
INTO SE VA/NE NC. THE RESULT IS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
THE ERN LOCAL AREA IN WAKE OF EARLIER SHOWERS/CONVECTION. WILL
MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWER WORDING GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A
LINE FROM ROANOKE RAPIDS NC TO NEWPORT NEWS VA AND SALISBURY MD
THRU THE EVENING. ANY LEFTOVER INSTABILITY HAS BEEN LOST...SO DO
NOT ANTICIPATE ANY ADDITIONAL THUNDER. TROUGH AXIS ALIGNS ALONG
THE COAST LATE THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE COAST.
THIS WILL BRING AN END TO PRECIP CHANCES BY MIDNIGHT. WLY FLOW
WILL BEGIN TO DRY THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OUT...FIRST OVER THE
PIEDMONT AND EXPANDING EWD THRU THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE HANDLING THE SKIES AND WINDS WELL...SO
TRENDED OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THAT DIRECTION. LOWS GENERALLY
UNCHANGED IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WED THRU FRI...AS MAINLY ZONAL
FLOW/DRY WNW WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE REGION. LO PRES WILL BE MOVNG
AWAY TO THE NE INTO THE NRN ATLC...AS SFC HI PRES GRADUALLY BLDS
IN FM THE NW. EXPECT GENERALLY A MOSTLY CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY
SKY THRU THE PERIOD. HIGHS ON WED IN THE MID TO UPR 50S...RANGING
FM THE LWR 40S TO LWR 50S THU...AND IN THE MID TO UPR 40S FRI.
LOWS WED NGT AND THU NGT RANGING FM THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONTINUE TO FAVOR A BLENDED SOLUTION LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF AND
ITS MEMBER ENSEMBLES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRIMARY
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS IN REGARDS TO THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER
PATTERN AND THE EVENTUAL STORM TRACK OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COAST LATER FRIDAY. WHILE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE BEEN LITERALLY ALL OVER THE MAP WITH THIS
SYSTEM, THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE OPERATIONAL
CANADIAN REMAIN THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM.

MODELS CAN AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL BE
RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE AREA TO BEGIN THE FORECAST PERIOD FRIDAY
NIGHT. ALSO WIDESPREAD CONSENSUS IN INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AS DEVELOPING UPPER
DISTURBANCE SLIDES NE FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS THE
MID-SOUTH BY 12Z SATURDAY, WITH SFC CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING FRIDAY
NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST. DESPITE SOME CONTINUED TEMPORAL
DIFFERENCES, MODELS ARE MORE OR LESS COMING INTO CONSENSUS WITH
DEPICTION OF A LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER SYSTEM. THE RESULTANT STORM
TRACK WOULD TRACK SFC LOW ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST EARLY SUNDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE AND ANALOGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
OVERRUNNING PCPN QUICKLY INCREASING, WITH LIKELY POPS APPEARING
REASONABLE BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. GIVEN THE TRACK AND THE TRANSIENT, RELATIVELY WEAK SFC
HIGH TO THE NORTH, STILL APPEARS TO BE JUST A COLD RAIN FOR OUR
AREA. HAVE HELD ON TO SOME SNOW SHRA MENTION SAT NIGHT OVER INTERIOR
ZONES AS FEW SNOWFLAKES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS PCPN COMES TO AN END
SATURDAY NIGHT/ERY SUN MORNING. OTHERWISE, PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN
END QUICKLY INLAND AS SYSTEM PUSHES E-NE OFFSHORE SUNDAY AFTN/EVE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD, REACHING
ABOVE CLIMO BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM, WHICH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...THE MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS THAT AFFECTED THE TAF SITES
HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. IFR/MVFR CONDS HAVE CONTINUED OVER ALL
LOCATIONS...AND WILL CONTINUE UNTIL DRIER AIR MOVES IN. W TO NW
WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY TODAY. A FEW GUSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY AT SBY. WINDS DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED ALONG WITH PERIODS OF IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT SUB-SCA S-SE FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTN
AS WEAK SFC HIGH PRES PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE AND SFC COLD FRNT
APPROACHES FM THE W. ARW/RUC HAVE HANDLED WINDS WELL THUS FAR AND HV
LEANED IN ITS DIRECTION WITH TIMING OF SFC COLD FRONT PASSAGE THIS
EVENING. WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND INCREASE
TO 10-15 KT, 15-20 KT OVER CSTL WTRS. SEAS REMAIN SUB-SCA, BUT
INCREASE TO 3-4 FT, HIGHEST OFFSHORE AND OVER NORTHERN WATERS.

CHOPPY, ALBEIT SUB-SCA SEAS WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE SYSTEM, WITH WAVE
PD INCREASING TO 10-12 SEC TOMORROW AFTN AND EVENING. DO HAVE THE
CHANCE FOR A FEW GUSTS TO LOW END SCA OVER NORTHERN WATERS, BUT HV
HELD OFF WITH ANY HEADLINES WITH PREDOMINATE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
BE SUB-SCA. SFC HI PRES THEN SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST WED NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...WITH GENERALLY
NW WINDS THRU THE PERIOD. REINFORCING CAA SURGE THU NIGHT MAY BRING
WINDS CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS OVR BAY / NRN WTRS...BUT STILL A WAYS
OUT FOR US TO MONITOR FOR A FEW MORE FORECAST CYCLES.

LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF FRIDAY, PUSHING
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND OFF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS SAT
NIGHT/SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME, EXPECT SUB-SCA CONDS TO PERSIST THROUGH
THIS TIME FRAME, THOUGH LOOK FOR WINDS TO BACK FROM THE NE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY TO THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND SUN NGT BEHIND THE
SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...MAS/LSA
MARINE...MAM







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 170547
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1247 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA AND MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST REGIONAL MOSAIC DEPICTS BRUNT OF SHOWERS HAVE PUSHED
OFFSHORE EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE COLD FRONT STILL
REMAINS OVER WRN VA. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY VISIBLE ON WATER
VAPOR WILL CROSS NRN NC THIS EVENING AS WINDS INCREASE ALOFT.
UPSTREAM PV ANOMALY WILL ALSO ENHANCE UVM OVER THE SE LOCAL AREA.
IN THE LOW LEVELS...MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL EXIST ALONG THE COAST
INTO SE VA/NE NC. THE RESULT IS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
THE ERN LOCAL AREA IN WAKE OF EARLIER SHOWERS/CONVECTION. WILL
MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWER WORDING GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A
LINE FROM ROANOKE RAPIDS NC TO NEWPORT NEWS VA AND SALISBURY MD
THRU THE EVENING. ANY LEFTOVER INSTABILITY HAS BEEN LOST...SO DO
NOT ANTICIPATE ANY ADDITIONAL THUNDER. TROUGH AXIS ALIGNS ALONG
THE COAST LATE THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE COAST.
THIS WILL BRING AN END TO PRECIP CHANCES BY MIDNIGHT. WLY FLOW
WILL BEGIN TO DRY THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OUT...FIRST OVER THE
PIEDMONT AND EXPANDING EWD THRU THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE HANDLING THE SKIES AND WINDS WELL...SO
TRENDED OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THAT DIRECTION. LOWS GENERALLY
UNCHANGED IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WED THRU FRI...AS MAINLY ZONAL
FLOW/DRY WNW WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE REGION. LO PRES WILL BE MOVNG
AWAY TO THE NE INTO THE NRN ATLC...AS SFC HI PRES GRADUALLY BLDS
IN FM THE NW. EXPECT GENERALLY A MOSTLY CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY
SKY THRU THE PERIOD. HIGHS ON WED IN THE MID TO UPR 50S...RANGING
FM THE LWR 40S TO LWR 50S THU...AND IN THE MID TO UPR 40S FRI.
LOWS WED NGT AND THU NGT RANGING FM THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONTINUE TO FAVOR A BLENDED SOLUTION LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF AND
ITS MEMBER ENSEMBLES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRIMARY
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS IN REGARDS TO THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER
PATTERN AND THE EVENTUAL STORM TRACK OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COAST LATER FRIDAY. WHILE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE BEEN LITERALLY ALL OVER THE MAP WITH THIS
SYSTEM, THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE OPERATIONAL
CANADIAN REMAIN THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM.

MODELS CAN AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL BE
RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE AREA TO BEGIN THE FORECAST PERIOD FRIDAY
NIGHT. ALSO WIDESPREAD CONSENSUS IN INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AS DEVELOPING UPPER
DISTURBANCE SLIDES NE FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS THE
MID-SOUTH BY 12Z SATURDAY, WITH SFC CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING FRIDAY
NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST. DESPITE SOME CONTINUED TEMPORAL
DIFFERENCES, MODELS ARE MORE OR LESS COMING INTO CONSENSUS WITH
DEPICTION OF A LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER SYSTEM. THE RESULTANT STORM
TRACK WOULD TRACK SFC LOW ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST EARLY SUNDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE AND ANALOGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
OVERRUNNING PCPN QUICKLY INCREASING, WITH LIKELY POPS APPEARING
REASONABLE BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. GIVEN THE TRACK AND THE TRANSIENT, RELATIVELY WEAK SFC
HIGH TO THE NORTH, STILL APPEARS TO BE JUST A COLD RAIN FOR OUR
AREA. HAVE HELD ON TO SOME SNOW SHRA MENTION SAT NIGHT OVER INTERIOR
ZONES AS FEW SNOWFLAKES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS PCPN COMES TO AN END
SATURDAY NIGHT/ERY SUN MORNING. OTHERWISE, PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN
END QUICKLY INLAND AS SYSTEM PUSHES E-NE OFFSHORE SUNDAY AFTN/EVE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD, REACHING
ABOVE CLIMO BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM, WHICH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...THE MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS THAT AFFECTED THE TAF SITES
HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. IFR/MVFR CONDS HAVE CONTINUED OVER ALL
LOCATIONS...AND WILL CONTINUE UNTIL DRIER AIR MOVES IN. W TO NW
WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY TODAY. A FEW GUSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY AT SBY. WINDS DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED ALONG WITH PERIODS OF IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT SUB-SCA S-SE FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTN
AS WEAK SFC HIGH PRES PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE AND SFC COLD FRNT
APPROACHES FM THE W. ARW/RUC HAVE HANDLED WINDS WELL THUS FAR AND HV
LEANED IN ITS DIRECTION WITH TIMING OF SFC COLD FRONT PASSAGE THIS
EVENING. WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND INCREASE
TO 10-15 KT, 15-20 KT OVER CSTL WTRS. SEAS REMAIN SUB-SCA, BUT
INCREASE TO 3-4 FT, HIGHEST OFFSHORE AND OVER NORTHERN WATERS.

CHOPPY, ALBEIT SUB-SCA SEAS WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE SYSTEM, WITH WAVE
PD INCREASING TO 10-12 SEC TOMORROW AFTN AND EVENING. DO HAVE THE
CHANCE FOR A FEW GUSTS TO LOW END SCA OVER NORTHERN WATERS, BUT HV
HELD OFF WITH ANY HEADLINES WITH PREDOMINATE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
BE SUB-SCA. SFC HI PRES THEN SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST WED NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...WITH GENERALLY
NW WINDS THRU THE PERIOD. REINFORCING CAA SURGE THU NIGHT MAY BRING
WINDS CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS OVR BAY / NRN WTRS...BUT STILL A WAYS
OUT FOR US TO MONITOR FOR A FEW MORE FORECAST CYCLES.

LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF FRIDAY, PUSHING
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND OFF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS SAT
NIGHT/SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME, EXPECT SUB-SCA CONDS TO PERSIST THROUGH
THIS TIME FRAME, THOUGH LOOK FOR WINDS TO BACK FROM THE NE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY TO THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND SUN NGT BEHIND THE
SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...MAS/LSA
MARINE...MAM







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 170547
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1247 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA AND MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST REGIONAL MOSAIC DEPICTS BRUNT OF SHOWERS HAVE PUSHED
OFFSHORE EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE COLD FRONT STILL
REMAINS OVER WRN VA. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY VISIBLE ON WATER
VAPOR WILL CROSS NRN NC THIS EVENING AS WINDS INCREASE ALOFT.
UPSTREAM PV ANOMALY WILL ALSO ENHANCE UVM OVER THE SE LOCAL AREA.
IN THE LOW LEVELS...MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL EXIST ALONG THE COAST
INTO SE VA/NE NC. THE RESULT IS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
THE ERN LOCAL AREA IN WAKE OF EARLIER SHOWERS/CONVECTION. WILL
MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWER WORDING GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A
LINE FROM ROANOKE RAPIDS NC TO NEWPORT NEWS VA AND SALISBURY MD
THRU THE EVENING. ANY LEFTOVER INSTABILITY HAS BEEN LOST...SO DO
NOT ANTICIPATE ANY ADDITIONAL THUNDER. TROUGH AXIS ALIGNS ALONG
THE COAST LATE THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE COAST.
THIS WILL BRING AN END TO PRECIP CHANCES BY MIDNIGHT. WLY FLOW
WILL BEGIN TO DRY THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OUT...FIRST OVER THE
PIEDMONT AND EXPANDING EWD THRU THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE HANDLING THE SKIES AND WINDS WELL...SO
TRENDED OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THAT DIRECTION. LOWS GENERALLY
UNCHANGED IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WED THRU FRI...AS MAINLY ZONAL
FLOW/DRY WNW WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE REGION. LO PRES WILL BE MOVNG
AWAY TO THE NE INTO THE NRN ATLC...AS SFC HI PRES GRADUALLY BLDS
IN FM THE NW. EXPECT GENERALLY A MOSTLY CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY
SKY THRU THE PERIOD. HIGHS ON WED IN THE MID TO UPR 50S...RANGING
FM THE LWR 40S TO LWR 50S THU...AND IN THE MID TO UPR 40S FRI.
LOWS WED NGT AND THU NGT RANGING FM THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONTINUE TO FAVOR A BLENDED SOLUTION LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF AND
ITS MEMBER ENSEMBLES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRIMARY
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS IN REGARDS TO THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER
PATTERN AND THE EVENTUAL STORM TRACK OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COAST LATER FRIDAY. WHILE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE BEEN LITERALLY ALL OVER THE MAP WITH THIS
SYSTEM, THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE OPERATIONAL
CANADIAN REMAIN THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM.

MODELS CAN AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL BE
RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE AREA TO BEGIN THE FORECAST PERIOD FRIDAY
NIGHT. ALSO WIDESPREAD CONSENSUS IN INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AS DEVELOPING UPPER
DISTURBANCE SLIDES NE FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS THE
MID-SOUTH BY 12Z SATURDAY, WITH SFC CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING FRIDAY
NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST. DESPITE SOME CONTINUED TEMPORAL
DIFFERENCES, MODELS ARE MORE OR LESS COMING INTO CONSENSUS WITH
DEPICTION OF A LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER SYSTEM. THE RESULTANT STORM
TRACK WOULD TRACK SFC LOW ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST EARLY SUNDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE AND ANALOGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
OVERRUNNING PCPN QUICKLY INCREASING, WITH LIKELY POPS APPEARING
REASONABLE BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. GIVEN THE TRACK AND THE TRANSIENT, RELATIVELY WEAK SFC
HIGH TO THE NORTH, STILL APPEARS TO BE JUST A COLD RAIN FOR OUR
AREA. HAVE HELD ON TO SOME SNOW SHRA MENTION SAT NIGHT OVER INTERIOR
ZONES AS FEW SNOWFLAKES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS PCPN COMES TO AN END
SATURDAY NIGHT/ERY SUN MORNING. OTHERWISE, PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN
END QUICKLY INLAND AS SYSTEM PUSHES E-NE OFFSHORE SUNDAY AFTN/EVE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD, REACHING
ABOVE CLIMO BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM, WHICH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...THE MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS THAT AFFECTED THE TAF SITES
HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. IFR/MVFR CONDS HAVE CONTINUED OVER ALL
LOCATIONS...AND WILL CONTINUE UNTIL DRIER AIR MOVES IN. W TO NW
WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY TODAY. A FEW GUSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY AT SBY. WINDS DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED ALONG WITH PERIODS OF IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT SUB-SCA S-SE FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTN
AS WEAK SFC HIGH PRES PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE AND SFC COLD FRNT
APPROACHES FM THE W. ARW/RUC HAVE HANDLED WINDS WELL THUS FAR AND HV
LEANED IN ITS DIRECTION WITH TIMING OF SFC COLD FRONT PASSAGE THIS
EVENING. WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND INCREASE
TO 10-15 KT, 15-20 KT OVER CSTL WTRS. SEAS REMAIN SUB-SCA, BUT
INCREASE TO 3-4 FT, HIGHEST OFFSHORE AND OVER NORTHERN WATERS.

CHOPPY, ALBEIT SUB-SCA SEAS WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE SYSTEM, WITH WAVE
PD INCREASING TO 10-12 SEC TOMORROW AFTN AND EVENING. DO HAVE THE
CHANCE FOR A FEW GUSTS TO LOW END SCA OVER NORTHERN WATERS, BUT HV
HELD OFF WITH ANY HEADLINES WITH PREDOMINATE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
BE SUB-SCA. SFC HI PRES THEN SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST WED NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...WITH GENERALLY
NW WINDS THRU THE PERIOD. REINFORCING CAA SURGE THU NIGHT MAY BRING
WINDS CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS OVR BAY / NRN WTRS...BUT STILL A WAYS
OUT FOR US TO MONITOR FOR A FEW MORE FORECAST CYCLES.

LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF FRIDAY, PUSHING
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND OFF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS SAT
NIGHT/SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME, EXPECT SUB-SCA CONDS TO PERSIST THROUGH
THIS TIME FRAME, THOUGH LOOK FOR WINDS TO BACK FROM THE NE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY TO THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND SUN NGT BEHIND THE
SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...MAS/LSA
MARINE...MAM







000
FXUS61 KLWX 170537
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1237 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN THROUGH THURSDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH
FRIDAY. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING LIGHT RAIN AND A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE AREA
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
QUICK UPDT TO ADD DENSE FOG ADVY FM I-81 TO I-95 IN MD AND NRN VA.
VSBYS HVNT BUDGED MUCH IN THE SHEN VLY...AND THE BLANKET HAS CREPT
EAST. THERES A LTL BIT OF WND BACK OVER THE PTMC HIGHLANDS...BUT
THE AMS ISNT THAT MUCH DRIER. WE MAY NEED TO AWAIT DIURNAL MIXING
BEFORE DRY AIR CAN ERODE FOG THATS DVLPD. -HTS

PREV DSCN...
AS OF 02Z...SFC TROUGH FROM LEADING OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT IS OVER
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS TRAPPED UNDER A SHALLOW
INVERSION SO LIGHT DRIZZLE AND LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO LINGER WELL INTO
TONIGHT IN SPITE OF A WEST WIND DEVELOPING. TOOK A BALANCE WITH
THE FOG FORECAST...CLEARING MOST BEFORE SUNRISE AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES AND 18Z NAM FCST SNDGS MIX OUT SFC AFTER
06Z...WHILE THE 18Z GFS KEEPS SFC INVERSION THROUGH 12Z. MIN
TEMPS MILD WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION OVERNIGHT AND EITHER
MIXING OR CLOUDS KEEPING TEMPS UP...MINS UPR 30S TO LOW 40S FOR
LOWER ELEVATIONS.

MEASURABLE PRECIP LIMITED TO UPSLOPE WEST FROM THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT TONIGHT WHERE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ABOVE 4KFT (32F
OVER AT SNOWSHOE...38F AT KHSP). THAT SNOW ELEVATION WILL LOWER
THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT WITH ONLY A
SHALLOW INVERSION...1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW...ALL ABOVE ABOUT 2KFT.

SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS OVER OHIO WILL FULLY MIX OUT THE FOG/MIST
AS IT CROSSES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. BREEZY WLY FLOW BEHIND
THIS FRONT...PEAK GUSTS 25 TO POSSIBLY 30 MPH DURING DAYLIGHT
WEDNESDAY. DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND CLEARING SKIES WILL OFFSET THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND ALLOW MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW 50S FOR MOST
LOWER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SPIN
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. A FAST ZONAL
UPPER LEVEL JET WILL STRETCH FROM TEXAS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH.
THEREFORE NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKERS OR WEATHER CHANGES. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER WITHIN THE UPSLOPE
FLOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. USED SNOW
SHOWER/FLURRIES WORDING IN THE GRIDS...BUT COULD ALSO BE DZ/FZDZ.
LOWS NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA.

A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL LIKELY INCREASE
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...WHICH MAY HELP MUTE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 40S. HOWEVER SOME MIXING WILL OCCUR AND ENOUGH GRADIENT STILL IN
PLACE TO HAVE SOME GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT. HOWEVER OVERALL TRANQUIL
WEATHER WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS FALLING
BACK DOWN TO NEAR FREEZING.

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH A FAIRLY SEASONABLE DAY ON
THURSDAY. TEMPS MAY BE JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THANKS
TO CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...BUT WITH
WEAK RIDGING/ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO
KNOCK OFF SOME OF THE CHILL DURING THE DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AS A
STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY DEVELOPS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE TEXAS GULF COAST. MODELS REALLY BEGIN
TO DIVERGE IN SOLUTIONS AT THIS POINT. THE PRIMARY VARIANCE INVOLVES
THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT CONTINUES ITS MARCH
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. DETERMINISTICALLY...THE EURO HAS A MUCH
MORE AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE...WHILE THE GFS NEARLY ELIMINATES THE
SHORTWAVE ALTOGETHER...AND THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE LOW REFLECTS
THIS WITH THE EUROS SURFACE LOW BEING NEARLY 20 MB DEEPER AT 06Z
SUNDAY OVER SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA. WITHIN THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF BOTH
MODELS THERE ARE RUNS THAT RESEMBLE THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE
OPPOSITE MODEL...SO BOTH SOLUTIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE...WITH SOME
SOLUTION IN BETWEEN BEING MOST LIKELY.

DESPITE THE LARGE SPREAD AMONGST GLOBAL MODELS...THERE ARE SOME
ASPECTS THAT WE CAN BE PRETTY CONFIDENT ABOUT. CLOUD COVER WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTS IN AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LOW FRIDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
FORM OF PRECIP SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW CENTER PASSES
NEAR THE AREA. AS EXPECTED...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN P-TYPE AT THIS
POINT...BUT HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE AT SNOW THAN
LOW ELEVATIONS...SO GENERALLY STUCK WITH MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WITH MORE OF A MIX BAG OF WINTRY PRECIP
FOR THE EASTERN PORTION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND TEMPS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH DRY CONDITIONS TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LIFR CONDS SLOW TO IMPROVE THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND POSSIBLY THROUGH
SUNRISE DUE TO WEAK SURFACE FLOW. SECONDARY CD FNT WL CROSS THE
RGN LATE TONIGHT. BRZY W WINDS XPCTD WED (GUSTS TO 22 KT) WITH VFR
CONDS BY MID MORNING.

VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT. WNW WIND GUSTS ABOVE
20 KT POSSIBLE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF THURSDAY.

MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS A
LOW PRESSURE PASSES NEAR THE AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FLOW BECOMES WLY 10 KT OVERNIGHT...INCREASING BEHIND A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY MORNING. SCA FOR ALL WATERS BEGINNING AT 9 AM
AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A SCA IS LIKELY DURING DIURNAL MIXING OF GUSTY WNW FLOW ON
THURSDAY OVER PORTIONS IF NOT ALL OF THE WATERS. WINDS DIMINISH
AGAIN THURSDAY EVENING.

A SMALL CRAFT MAY BE NEEDED INTO THE DAY THURSDAY IN BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES NEAR THE AREA.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ003>006-
     503>506.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ027>031-
     040-052-053-501-505-506.
WV...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ051>053.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KLWX 170537
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1237 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN THROUGH THURSDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH
FRIDAY. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING LIGHT RAIN AND A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE AREA
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
QUICK UPDT TO ADD DENSE FOG ADVY FM I-81 TO I-95 IN MD AND NRN VA.
VSBYS HVNT BUDGED MUCH IN THE SHEN VLY...AND THE BLANKET HAS CREPT
EAST. THERES A LTL BIT OF WND BACK OVER THE PTMC HIGHLANDS...BUT
THE AMS ISNT THAT MUCH DRIER. WE MAY NEED TO AWAIT DIURNAL MIXING
BEFORE DRY AIR CAN ERODE FOG THATS DVLPD. -HTS

PREV DSCN...
AS OF 02Z...SFC TROUGH FROM LEADING OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT IS OVER
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS TRAPPED UNDER A SHALLOW
INVERSION SO LIGHT DRIZZLE AND LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO LINGER WELL INTO
TONIGHT IN SPITE OF A WEST WIND DEVELOPING. TOOK A BALANCE WITH
THE FOG FORECAST...CLEARING MOST BEFORE SUNRISE AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES AND 18Z NAM FCST SNDGS MIX OUT SFC AFTER
06Z...WHILE THE 18Z GFS KEEPS SFC INVERSION THROUGH 12Z. MIN
TEMPS MILD WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION OVERNIGHT AND EITHER
MIXING OR CLOUDS KEEPING TEMPS UP...MINS UPR 30S TO LOW 40S FOR
LOWER ELEVATIONS.

MEASURABLE PRECIP LIMITED TO UPSLOPE WEST FROM THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT TONIGHT WHERE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ABOVE 4KFT (32F
OVER AT SNOWSHOE...38F AT KHSP). THAT SNOW ELEVATION WILL LOWER
THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT WITH ONLY A
SHALLOW INVERSION...1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW...ALL ABOVE ABOUT 2KFT.

SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS OVER OHIO WILL FULLY MIX OUT THE FOG/MIST
AS IT CROSSES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. BREEZY WLY FLOW BEHIND
THIS FRONT...PEAK GUSTS 25 TO POSSIBLY 30 MPH DURING DAYLIGHT
WEDNESDAY. DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND CLEARING SKIES WILL OFFSET THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND ALLOW MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW 50S FOR MOST
LOWER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SPIN
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. A FAST ZONAL
UPPER LEVEL JET WILL STRETCH FROM TEXAS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH.
THEREFORE NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKERS OR WEATHER CHANGES. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER WITHIN THE UPSLOPE
FLOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. USED SNOW
SHOWER/FLURRIES WORDING IN THE GRIDS...BUT COULD ALSO BE DZ/FZDZ.
LOWS NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA.

A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL LIKELY INCREASE
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...WHICH MAY HELP MUTE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 40S. HOWEVER SOME MIXING WILL OCCUR AND ENOUGH GRADIENT STILL IN
PLACE TO HAVE SOME GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT. HOWEVER OVERALL TRANQUIL
WEATHER WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS FALLING
BACK DOWN TO NEAR FREEZING.

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH A FAIRLY SEASONABLE DAY ON
THURSDAY. TEMPS MAY BE JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THANKS
TO CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...BUT WITH
WEAK RIDGING/ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO
KNOCK OFF SOME OF THE CHILL DURING THE DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AS A
STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY DEVELOPS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE TEXAS GULF COAST. MODELS REALLY BEGIN
TO DIVERGE IN SOLUTIONS AT THIS POINT. THE PRIMARY VARIANCE INVOLVES
THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT CONTINUES ITS MARCH
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. DETERMINISTICALLY...THE EURO HAS A MUCH
MORE AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE...WHILE THE GFS NEARLY ELIMINATES THE
SHORTWAVE ALTOGETHER...AND THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE LOW REFLECTS
THIS WITH THE EUROS SURFACE LOW BEING NEARLY 20 MB DEEPER AT 06Z
SUNDAY OVER SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA. WITHIN THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF BOTH
MODELS THERE ARE RUNS THAT RESEMBLE THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE
OPPOSITE MODEL...SO BOTH SOLUTIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE...WITH SOME
SOLUTION IN BETWEEN BEING MOST LIKELY.

DESPITE THE LARGE SPREAD AMONGST GLOBAL MODELS...THERE ARE SOME
ASPECTS THAT WE CAN BE PRETTY CONFIDENT ABOUT. CLOUD COVER WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTS IN AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LOW FRIDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
FORM OF PRECIP SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW CENTER PASSES
NEAR THE AREA. AS EXPECTED...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN P-TYPE AT THIS
POINT...BUT HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE AT SNOW THAN
LOW ELEVATIONS...SO GENERALLY STUCK WITH MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WITH MORE OF A MIX BAG OF WINTRY PRECIP
FOR THE EASTERN PORTION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND TEMPS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH DRY CONDITIONS TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LIFR CONDS SLOW TO IMPROVE THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND POSSIBLY THROUGH
SUNRISE DUE TO WEAK SURFACE FLOW. SECONDARY CD FNT WL CROSS THE
RGN LATE TONIGHT. BRZY W WINDS XPCTD WED (GUSTS TO 22 KT) WITH VFR
CONDS BY MID MORNING.

VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT. WNW WIND GUSTS ABOVE
20 KT POSSIBLE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF THURSDAY.

MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS A
LOW PRESSURE PASSES NEAR THE AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FLOW BECOMES WLY 10 KT OVERNIGHT...INCREASING BEHIND A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY MORNING. SCA FOR ALL WATERS BEGINNING AT 9 AM
AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A SCA IS LIKELY DURING DIURNAL MIXING OF GUSTY WNW FLOW ON
THURSDAY OVER PORTIONS IF NOT ALL OF THE WATERS. WINDS DIMINISH
AGAIN THURSDAY EVENING.

A SMALL CRAFT MAY BE NEEDED INTO THE DAY THURSDAY IN BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES NEAR THE AREA.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ003>006-
     503>506.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ027>031-
     040-052-053-501-505-506.
WV...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ051>053.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KLWX 170537
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1237 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN THROUGH THURSDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH
FRIDAY. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING LIGHT RAIN AND A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE AREA
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
QUICK UPDT TO ADD DENSE FOG ADVY FM I-81 TO I-95 IN MD AND NRN VA.
VSBYS HVNT BUDGED MUCH IN THE SHEN VLY...AND THE BLANKET HAS CREPT
EAST. THERES A LTL BIT OF WND BACK OVER THE PTMC HIGHLANDS...BUT
THE AMS ISNT THAT MUCH DRIER. WE MAY NEED TO AWAIT DIURNAL MIXING
BEFORE DRY AIR CAN ERODE FOG THATS DVLPD. -HTS

PREV DSCN...
AS OF 02Z...SFC TROUGH FROM LEADING OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT IS OVER
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS TRAPPED UNDER A SHALLOW
INVERSION SO LIGHT DRIZZLE AND LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO LINGER WELL INTO
TONIGHT IN SPITE OF A WEST WIND DEVELOPING. TOOK A BALANCE WITH
THE FOG FORECAST...CLEARING MOST BEFORE SUNRISE AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES AND 18Z NAM FCST SNDGS MIX OUT SFC AFTER
06Z...WHILE THE 18Z GFS KEEPS SFC INVERSION THROUGH 12Z. MIN
TEMPS MILD WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION OVERNIGHT AND EITHER
MIXING OR CLOUDS KEEPING TEMPS UP...MINS UPR 30S TO LOW 40S FOR
LOWER ELEVATIONS.

MEASURABLE PRECIP LIMITED TO UPSLOPE WEST FROM THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT TONIGHT WHERE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ABOVE 4KFT (32F
OVER AT SNOWSHOE...38F AT KHSP). THAT SNOW ELEVATION WILL LOWER
THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT WITH ONLY A
SHALLOW INVERSION...1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW...ALL ABOVE ABOUT 2KFT.

SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS OVER OHIO WILL FULLY MIX OUT THE FOG/MIST
AS IT CROSSES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. BREEZY WLY FLOW BEHIND
THIS FRONT...PEAK GUSTS 25 TO POSSIBLY 30 MPH DURING DAYLIGHT
WEDNESDAY. DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND CLEARING SKIES WILL OFFSET THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND ALLOW MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW 50S FOR MOST
LOWER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SPIN
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. A FAST ZONAL
UPPER LEVEL JET WILL STRETCH FROM TEXAS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH.
THEREFORE NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKERS OR WEATHER CHANGES. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER WITHIN THE UPSLOPE
FLOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. USED SNOW
SHOWER/FLURRIES WORDING IN THE GRIDS...BUT COULD ALSO BE DZ/FZDZ.
LOWS NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA.

A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL LIKELY INCREASE
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...WHICH MAY HELP MUTE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 40S. HOWEVER SOME MIXING WILL OCCUR AND ENOUGH GRADIENT STILL IN
PLACE TO HAVE SOME GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT. HOWEVER OVERALL TRANQUIL
WEATHER WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS FALLING
BACK DOWN TO NEAR FREEZING.

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH A FAIRLY SEASONABLE DAY ON
THURSDAY. TEMPS MAY BE JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THANKS
TO CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...BUT WITH
WEAK RIDGING/ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO
KNOCK OFF SOME OF THE CHILL DURING THE DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AS A
STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY DEVELOPS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE TEXAS GULF COAST. MODELS REALLY BEGIN
TO DIVERGE IN SOLUTIONS AT THIS POINT. THE PRIMARY VARIANCE INVOLVES
THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT CONTINUES ITS MARCH
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. DETERMINISTICALLY...THE EURO HAS A MUCH
MORE AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE...WHILE THE GFS NEARLY ELIMINATES THE
SHORTWAVE ALTOGETHER...AND THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE LOW REFLECTS
THIS WITH THE EUROS SURFACE LOW BEING NEARLY 20 MB DEEPER AT 06Z
SUNDAY OVER SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA. WITHIN THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF BOTH
MODELS THERE ARE RUNS THAT RESEMBLE THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE
OPPOSITE MODEL...SO BOTH SOLUTIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE...WITH SOME
SOLUTION IN BETWEEN BEING MOST LIKELY.

DESPITE THE LARGE SPREAD AMONGST GLOBAL MODELS...THERE ARE SOME
ASPECTS THAT WE CAN BE PRETTY CONFIDENT ABOUT. CLOUD COVER WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTS IN AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LOW FRIDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
FORM OF PRECIP SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW CENTER PASSES
NEAR THE AREA. AS EXPECTED...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN P-TYPE AT THIS
POINT...BUT HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE AT SNOW THAN
LOW ELEVATIONS...SO GENERALLY STUCK WITH MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WITH MORE OF A MIX BAG OF WINTRY PRECIP
FOR THE EASTERN PORTION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND TEMPS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH DRY CONDITIONS TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LIFR CONDS SLOW TO IMPROVE THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND POSSIBLY THROUGH
SUNRISE DUE TO WEAK SURFACE FLOW. SECONDARY CD FNT WL CROSS THE
RGN LATE TONIGHT. BRZY W WINDS XPCTD WED (GUSTS TO 22 KT) WITH VFR
CONDS BY MID MORNING.

VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT. WNW WIND GUSTS ABOVE
20 KT POSSIBLE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF THURSDAY.

MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS A
LOW PRESSURE PASSES NEAR THE AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FLOW BECOMES WLY 10 KT OVERNIGHT...INCREASING BEHIND A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY MORNING. SCA FOR ALL WATERS BEGINNING AT 9 AM
AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A SCA IS LIKELY DURING DIURNAL MIXING OF GUSTY WNW FLOW ON
THURSDAY OVER PORTIONS IF NOT ALL OF THE WATERS. WINDS DIMINISH
AGAIN THURSDAY EVENING.

A SMALL CRAFT MAY BE NEEDED INTO THE DAY THURSDAY IN BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES NEAR THE AREA.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ003>006-
     503>506.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ027>031-
     040-052-053-501-505-506.
WV...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ051>053.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KLWX 170537
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1237 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN THROUGH THURSDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH
FRIDAY. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING LIGHT RAIN AND A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE AREA
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
QUICK UPDT TO ADD DENSE FOG ADVY FM I-81 TO I-95 IN MD AND NRN VA.
VSBYS HVNT BUDGED MUCH IN THE SHEN VLY...AND THE BLANKET HAS CREPT
EAST. THERES A LTL BIT OF WND BACK OVER THE PTMC HIGHLANDS...BUT
THE AMS ISNT THAT MUCH DRIER. WE MAY NEED TO AWAIT DIURNAL MIXING
BEFORE DRY AIR CAN ERODE FOG THATS DVLPD. -HTS

PREV DSCN...
AS OF 02Z...SFC TROUGH FROM LEADING OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT IS OVER
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS TRAPPED UNDER A SHALLOW
INVERSION SO LIGHT DRIZZLE AND LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO LINGER WELL INTO
TONIGHT IN SPITE OF A WEST WIND DEVELOPING. TOOK A BALANCE WITH
THE FOG FORECAST...CLEARING MOST BEFORE SUNRISE AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES AND 18Z NAM FCST SNDGS MIX OUT SFC AFTER
06Z...WHILE THE 18Z GFS KEEPS SFC INVERSION THROUGH 12Z. MIN
TEMPS MILD WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION OVERNIGHT AND EITHER
MIXING OR CLOUDS KEEPING TEMPS UP...MINS UPR 30S TO LOW 40S FOR
LOWER ELEVATIONS.

MEASURABLE PRECIP LIMITED TO UPSLOPE WEST FROM THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT TONIGHT WHERE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ABOVE 4KFT (32F
OVER AT SNOWSHOE...38F AT KHSP). THAT SNOW ELEVATION WILL LOWER
THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT WITH ONLY A
SHALLOW INVERSION...1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW...ALL ABOVE ABOUT 2KFT.

SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS OVER OHIO WILL FULLY MIX OUT THE FOG/MIST
AS IT CROSSES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. BREEZY WLY FLOW BEHIND
THIS FRONT...PEAK GUSTS 25 TO POSSIBLY 30 MPH DURING DAYLIGHT
WEDNESDAY. DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND CLEARING SKIES WILL OFFSET THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND ALLOW MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW 50S FOR MOST
LOWER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SPIN
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. A FAST ZONAL
UPPER LEVEL JET WILL STRETCH FROM TEXAS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH.
THEREFORE NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKERS OR WEATHER CHANGES. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER WITHIN THE UPSLOPE
FLOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. USED SNOW
SHOWER/FLURRIES WORDING IN THE GRIDS...BUT COULD ALSO BE DZ/FZDZ.
LOWS NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA.

A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL LIKELY INCREASE
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...WHICH MAY HELP MUTE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 40S. HOWEVER SOME MIXING WILL OCCUR AND ENOUGH GRADIENT STILL IN
PLACE TO HAVE SOME GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT. HOWEVER OVERALL TRANQUIL
WEATHER WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS FALLING
BACK DOWN TO NEAR FREEZING.

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH A FAIRLY SEASONABLE DAY ON
THURSDAY. TEMPS MAY BE JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THANKS
TO CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...BUT WITH
WEAK RIDGING/ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO
KNOCK OFF SOME OF THE CHILL DURING THE DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AS A
STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY DEVELOPS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE TEXAS GULF COAST. MODELS REALLY BEGIN
TO DIVERGE IN SOLUTIONS AT THIS POINT. THE PRIMARY VARIANCE INVOLVES
THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT CONTINUES ITS MARCH
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. DETERMINISTICALLY...THE EURO HAS A MUCH
MORE AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE...WHILE THE GFS NEARLY ELIMINATES THE
SHORTWAVE ALTOGETHER...AND THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE LOW REFLECTS
THIS WITH THE EUROS SURFACE LOW BEING NEARLY 20 MB DEEPER AT 06Z
SUNDAY OVER SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA. WITHIN THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF BOTH
MODELS THERE ARE RUNS THAT RESEMBLE THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE
OPPOSITE MODEL...SO BOTH SOLUTIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE...WITH SOME
SOLUTION IN BETWEEN BEING MOST LIKELY.

DESPITE THE LARGE SPREAD AMONGST GLOBAL MODELS...THERE ARE SOME
ASPECTS THAT WE CAN BE PRETTY CONFIDENT ABOUT. CLOUD COVER WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTS IN AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LOW FRIDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
FORM OF PRECIP SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW CENTER PASSES
NEAR THE AREA. AS EXPECTED...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN P-TYPE AT THIS
POINT...BUT HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE AT SNOW THAN
LOW ELEVATIONS...SO GENERALLY STUCK WITH MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WITH MORE OF A MIX BAG OF WINTRY PRECIP
FOR THE EASTERN PORTION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND TEMPS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH DRY CONDITIONS TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LIFR CONDS SLOW TO IMPROVE THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND POSSIBLY THROUGH
SUNRISE DUE TO WEAK SURFACE FLOW. SECONDARY CD FNT WL CROSS THE
RGN LATE TONIGHT. BRZY W WINDS XPCTD WED (GUSTS TO 22 KT) WITH VFR
CONDS BY MID MORNING.

VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT. WNW WIND GUSTS ABOVE
20 KT POSSIBLE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF THURSDAY.

MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS A
LOW PRESSURE PASSES NEAR THE AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FLOW BECOMES WLY 10 KT OVERNIGHT...INCREASING BEHIND A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY MORNING. SCA FOR ALL WATERS BEGINNING AT 9 AM
AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A SCA IS LIKELY DURING DIURNAL MIXING OF GUSTY WNW FLOW ON
THURSDAY OVER PORTIONS IF NOT ALL OF THE WATERS. WINDS DIMINISH
AGAIN THURSDAY EVENING.

A SMALL CRAFT MAY BE NEEDED INTO THE DAY THURSDAY IN BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES NEAR THE AREA.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ003>006-
     503>506.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ027>031-
     040-052-053-501-505-506.
WV...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ051>053.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KRNK 170455
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1155 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH DRY
WEATHER FOR MID WEEK. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES...REACHING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 935 PM EST TUESDAY...

RADAR VERY QUIET BUT TO BE EXPECTED AS MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IS OVERSHOT BY THE RADAR BEAM.
NONETHELESS...AS SHORTWAVE PIVOTS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT THE NW
FLOW IS GOING TO GENERATE ISOLATED/SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. AS
THE NIGHT WEARS ON THE MOISTURE BECOMES SHALLOW SO THAT DZ/FZDZ
WILL OCCUR. GIVEN THE LACK OF COVERAGE OF BELOW FREEZING
TEMPS...OPTED TO JUST ISSUE A SPECIAL WX STATEMENT FOR THE NC
MTNS/GRAYSON HIGHLANDS AND WRN GREENBRIER TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LIGHT
ICING/RIME ICING LATE TONIGHT.

THE FOG OUT EAST TO ERODE AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN AND WINDS PICK UP
SLIGHTLY. ALREADY HAVE SEEN LYH GO FROM 1/4SM FG TO 10SM IN LESS
THAN 1 HOUR.

STILL EXPECT LOWS FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE WRN SLOPES TO
UPPER 30S...NEAR 40 EAST.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

FOR EAST SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS...STRONG DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 30-35 KTS ARE PROGGED AT 85H...SO SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RIDGE CRESTS AND JUST LEE OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FT TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S IN THE PIEDMONT.

UPPER TROF SHIFTS OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AS WE TRANSITION TO A MORE
ZONAL UPPER FLOW BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. DOWNSLOPING DRYING EXPECTED FOR THE EAST.
WHILE IN THE WEST...UPSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN A VERY SHALLOW
MOIST LAYER LOCKED IN UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. WILL
CONTINUE CLOUDS AND THE UPSLOPE LIGHT RA/FZRA THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...THEN PRECIPITATION ENDS WHILE CLOUDS LINGER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 50S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM EST TUESDAY...

PATTERN IS PROGRESSIVE AND ZONAL THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS BRING A
SHORT WAVE FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH
CONSENSUS WITH THE LOCATION OF ANY PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY.
WHATEVER PRECIPITATION DOES FALL WILL BE LIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE RIDGE MOVES FAR ENOUGH
EAST BY THE END OF THE DAY FRIDAY FOR SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TO
COME AROUND TO THE EAST.

NO CHANGE IN AIR MASS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT WITH CLOUDS ON
THURSDAY WILL KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES NEAR COOLER MET GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST TUESDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE NOSE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH NOT WITH THE BEST ORIENTATION FOR OPTIMAL WEDGE
CONDITIONS. DESPITE THIS...WE STILL ANTICIPATE A MIX OF TEMPERATURES
A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING AT THE ONSET OF THE
EVENT...AND THROUGH THE SATURDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. AT
85H...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GULF
COAST STATES. GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED BY AN AVERAGE OF 6 HOURS ON THE
ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA. HAVE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY
WITH THE FORECAST. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING ENOUGH OF A RUN TO RUN
DIFFERENCE WITH EACH OTHER...AND WITH ITS OWN EARLIER RUNS FOR THERE
STILL TO BE NOTABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE
AT THE ONSET...AND DURING THE COURSE OF THE PRECIPITATION EVENT THIS
LOW WILL BRING TO OUR REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BY
SUNDAY...THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS THAT THE AREA
WILL BE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH ENOUGH COLD AIR ACROSS
THE REGION WITH A STIFF NORTHWEST WIND TRAJECTORY FOR UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE WEST TO CONCLUDE THE EVENT.

THE BEST CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS SUGGEST SOME TYPE OF WINTRY MIX
WHERE THE SURFACE AND BOUNDARY LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THIS WINTRY MIX
LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. ANY MIX ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
WILL BE LIMITED BY MILDER SURFACE AND BOUNDARY LEVEL TEMPERATURES
THERE...WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR A MIX TO BE ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE ROANOKE RIVER VALLEY. SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA...SOUTH INTO PARTS OF
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AT THIS POINT LOOK TO BE PRIMARILY RAIN.

GIVEN THESE VARIOUS UNCERTAINTIES AND LOCAL POLICY...THE FORECAST
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE A RAIN VERSUS
SNOW FORECAST...WITH THE FLEXIBILITY OF SOME AREAS WITH RAIN AND
SNOW SIMULTANEOUSLY. WHILE OUR FINAL WEATHER PICTURE MAY DEPICT A
GREATER RANGE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TYPES...RAIN VERSUS SNOW IS A
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO TAKE AT THIS POINT. IN A COUPLE OF
DAYS...OUR CONFIDENCE MAY HAVE INCREASED ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A
GREATER MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES IN THE FORECAST DURING THIS
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

AS MENTION EARLIER...BY THE TIME WE GET TO SUNDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE LIFTING OUT OF THE
REGION...AND SUB FREEZING AIR WILL HAVE WRAPPED IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM
AT THE LOWER LEVELS. ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION HAS A GREATER
CHANCE TO BE SNOW OR RAIN WITHOUT THE PRESENCE OF A WARM NOSE ALOFT.
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE PREFERRED AREA OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND
NEIGHBORING PARTS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA WILL GRADUALLY ERODE AS
DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE REGION AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
GRADUALLY BACKS WEST TO SOUTHWEST.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE THE REGION
WITH LIGHT WINDS...LIMITED CLOUD COVER AND NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY. THE GFS
IS QUICK TO BRING THE COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKE REGION. THIS
SYSTEM IS KEPT DISTINCT FROM A DISTURBANCE OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS THAT HAS LITTLE OR NO INTERACTION WITH THE GREAT LAKES
TROUGH THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF OUR FORECAST PERIOD. FOLLOWING
THIS SOLUTION YIELD LIMITED COVERAGE OF RAIN OR SNOW REACHING THE
WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY TUESDAY. THE
ECMWF SOLUTION ALSO HAS THE TWO SYSTEMS DISTINCT THROUGH
TUESDAY...BUT FOR A DIFFERENT REASON. THIS SOLUTIONS IS FARTHER WEST
WITH THE COASTAL SYSTEM...AND WRAPS MOISTURE...AND A WARM
NOSE...INTO OUR AREA DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY TUESDAY. THE GREAT
LAKES SYSTEM IS NOT AS PROGRESSIVE...AND HAS THE TIME TO ELONGATE MORE
SOUTH INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. IF THE ECMWF IS ON
TRACK...THE AREA WILL HAVE A GENEROUS COVERAGE OF A WINTRY MIX
MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. OUR
FORECAST AT THIS POINT WILL RESEMBLE MORE THAT OF THE GFS.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE TRICKY. WHILE WE ARE
EXPECTING A GENERAL TREND TOWARDS MILDER TEMPERATURES EACH DAY PAST
TUESDAY...HOW MUCH...AND WHERE ANY SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW
ARE DEPOSITED WILL PLAY A FACTOR IN BOTH THE HIGHS AND THE LOWS. AT
THIS POINT...AM LEANING ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE...WITH SOME
ALLOTMENT TOWARDS EVEN MORE COOLER WHERE...AT LEAST NOW...THE BEST
CHANCE OF SNOW IS EXPECTED. AT THIS POINT...WILL NOT TOUCH THE FOG
POTENTIAL ONCE WE START TO GET INTO THE RETURN FLOW SIDE OF THE
SURFACE HIGH. ALTHOUGH...AS MILDER AIR STARTS ADVECTING ACROSS ANY
REMAINING SNOWPACK...THE DEW POINT OF THAT AIR WILL LIKELY BE MILDER
THAN THE TEMPERATURE OF THE SNOW IT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1125 PM EST TUESDAY...

FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST...AND NOT EXPECTING ANY SUB VFR EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...THE BLF/LWB/BCB TO HAVE MVFR OR WORSE THROUGH
THE MORNING. THINK BCB WILL BE GOING TO VFR CIGS AT 13-14Z...THEN
SCATTERING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. CIGS TO STAY AROUND IN BLF/LWB
BUT RISE TO MVFR AFTER 15Z...MAY SEE SCATTERED CLOUDS IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT 00Z NAM/CMC STILL HANG ONTO THE LOWER CIGS INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. ATTM...WILL LEAVE IT SCATTERED FROM LATE
AFTERNOON-06Z THU. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY PRECIP AT BLF/LWB.

WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIME FROM THE WNW AT ROA/BLF AND BCB...THEN
WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY.



EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK RELATIVELY BENIGN...THOUGH LOWER CIGS
WILL LINGER IN THE WEST THU.

THE FRI NIGHT-SAT SYSTEM NOW HAS TRENDED WEAKER BUT WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED AS IT LOOKS TO STILL BRING A PERIOD OF SUB VFR
WINTRY WEATHER ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST SAT.

AVIATION INTERESTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION AS LATER
FORECASTS BECOME AVAILABLE. THIS WILL LIKELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON AIR
TRAVEL OVER THE WEEKEND...FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
CAROLINAS NORTH TO THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...KK/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...DS/KK/WP



000
FXUS61 KRNK 170455
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1155 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH DRY
WEATHER FOR MID WEEK. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES...REACHING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 935 PM EST TUESDAY...

RADAR VERY QUIET BUT TO BE EXPECTED AS MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IS OVERSHOT BY THE RADAR BEAM.
NONETHELESS...AS SHORTWAVE PIVOTS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT THE NW
FLOW IS GOING TO GENERATE ISOLATED/SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. AS
THE NIGHT WEARS ON THE MOISTURE BECOMES SHALLOW SO THAT DZ/FZDZ
WILL OCCUR. GIVEN THE LACK OF COVERAGE OF BELOW FREEZING
TEMPS...OPTED TO JUST ISSUE A SPECIAL WX STATEMENT FOR THE NC
MTNS/GRAYSON HIGHLANDS AND WRN GREENBRIER TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LIGHT
ICING/RIME ICING LATE TONIGHT.

THE FOG OUT EAST TO ERODE AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN AND WINDS PICK UP
SLIGHTLY. ALREADY HAVE SEEN LYH GO FROM 1/4SM FG TO 10SM IN LESS
THAN 1 HOUR.

STILL EXPECT LOWS FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE WRN SLOPES TO
UPPER 30S...NEAR 40 EAST.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

FOR EAST SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS...STRONG DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 30-35 KTS ARE PROGGED AT 85H...SO SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RIDGE CRESTS AND JUST LEE OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FT TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S IN THE PIEDMONT.

UPPER TROF SHIFTS OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AS WE TRANSITION TO A MORE
ZONAL UPPER FLOW BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. DOWNSLOPING DRYING EXPECTED FOR THE EAST.
WHILE IN THE WEST...UPSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN A VERY SHALLOW
MOIST LAYER LOCKED IN UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. WILL
CONTINUE CLOUDS AND THE UPSLOPE LIGHT RA/FZRA THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...THEN PRECIPITATION ENDS WHILE CLOUDS LINGER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 50S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM EST TUESDAY...

PATTERN IS PROGRESSIVE AND ZONAL THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS BRING A
SHORT WAVE FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH
CONSENSUS WITH THE LOCATION OF ANY PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY.
WHATEVER PRECIPITATION DOES FALL WILL BE LIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE RIDGE MOVES FAR ENOUGH
EAST BY THE END OF THE DAY FRIDAY FOR SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TO
COME AROUND TO THE EAST.

NO CHANGE IN AIR MASS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT WITH CLOUDS ON
THURSDAY WILL KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES NEAR COOLER MET GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST TUESDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE NOSE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH NOT WITH THE BEST ORIENTATION FOR OPTIMAL WEDGE
CONDITIONS. DESPITE THIS...WE STILL ANTICIPATE A MIX OF TEMPERATURES
A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING AT THE ONSET OF THE
EVENT...AND THROUGH THE SATURDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. AT
85H...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GULF
COAST STATES. GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED BY AN AVERAGE OF 6 HOURS ON THE
ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA. HAVE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY
WITH THE FORECAST. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING ENOUGH OF A RUN TO RUN
DIFFERENCE WITH EACH OTHER...AND WITH ITS OWN EARLIER RUNS FOR THERE
STILL TO BE NOTABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE
AT THE ONSET...AND DURING THE COURSE OF THE PRECIPITATION EVENT THIS
LOW WILL BRING TO OUR REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BY
SUNDAY...THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS THAT THE AREA
WILL BE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH ENOUGH COLD AIR ACROSS
THE REGION WITH A STIFF NORTHWEST WIND TRAJECTORY FOR UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE WEST TO CONCLUDE THE EVENT.

THE BEST CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS SUGGEST SOME TYPE OF WINTRY MIX
WHERE THE SURFACE AND BOUNDARY LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THIS WINTRY MIX
LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. ANY MIX ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
WILL BE LIMITED BY MILDER SURFACE AND BOUNDARY LEVEL TEMPERATURES
THERE...WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR A MIX TO BE ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE ROANOKE RIVER VALLEY. SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA...SOUTH INTO PARTS OF
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AT THIS POINT LOOK TO BE PRIMARILY RAIN.

GIVEN THESE VARIOUS UNCERTAINTIES AND LOCAL POLICY...THE FORECAST
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE A RAIN VERSUS
SNOW FORECAST...WITH THE FLEXIBILITY OF SOME AREAS WITH RAIN AND
SNOW SIMULTANEOUSLY. WHILE OUR FINAL WEATHER PICTURE MAY DEPICT A
GREATER RANGE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TYPES...RAIN VERSUS SNOW IS A
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO TAKE AT THIS POINT. IN A COUPLE OF
DAYS...OUR CONFIDENCE MAY HAVE INCREASED ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A
GREATER MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES IN THE FORECAST DURING THIS
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

AS MENTION EARLIER...BY THE TIME WE GET TO SUNDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE LIFTING OUT OF THE
REGION...AND SUB FREEZING AIR WILL HAVE WRAPPED IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM
AT THE LOWER LEVELS. ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION HAS A GREATER
CHANCE TO BE SNOW OR RAIN WITHOUT THE PRESENCE OF A WARM NOSE ALOFT.
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE PREFERRED AREA OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND
NEIGHBORING PARTS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA WILL GRADUALLY ERODE AS
DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE REGION AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
GRADUALLY BACKS WEST TO SOUTHWEST.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE THE REGION
WITH LIGHT WINDS...LIMITED CLOUD COVER AND NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY. THE GFS
IS QUICK TO BRING THE COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKE REGION. THIS
SYSTEM IS KEPT DISTINCT FROM A DISTURBANCE OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS THAT HAS LITTLE OR NO INTERACTION WITH THE GREAT LAKES
TROUGH THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF OUR FORECAST PERIOD. FOLLOWING
THIS SOLUTION YIELD LIMITED COVERAGE OF RAIN OR SNOW REACHING THE
WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY TUESDAY. THE
ECMWF SOLUTION ALSO HAS THE TWO SYSTEMS DISTINCT THROUGH
TUESDAY...BUT FOR A DIFFERENT REASON. THIS SOLUTIONS IS FARTHER WEST
WITH THE COASTAL SYSTEM...AND WRAPS MOISTURE...AND A WARM
NOSE...INTO OUR AREA DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY TUESDAY. THE GREAT
LAKES SYSTEM IS NOT AS PROGRESSIVE...AND HAS THE TIME TO ELONGATE MORE
SOUTH INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. IF THE ECMWF IS ON
TRACK...THE AREA WILL HAVE A GENEROUS COVERAGE OF A WINTRY MIX
MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. OUR
FORECAST AT THIS POINT WILL RESEMBLE MORE THAT OF THE GFS.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE TRICKY. WHILE WE ARE
EXPECTING A GENERAL TREND TOWARDS MILDER TEMPERATURES EACH DAY PAST
TUESDAY...HOW MUCH...AND WHERE ANY SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW
ARE DEPOSITED WILL PLAY A FACTOR IN BOTH THE HIGHS AND THE LOWS. AT
THIS POINT...AM LEANING ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE...WITH SOME
ALLOTMENT TOWARDS EVEN MORE COOLER WHERE...AT LEAST NOW...THE BEST
CHANCE OF SNOW IS EXPECTED. AT THIS POINT...WILL NOT TOUCH THE FOG
POTENTIAL ONCE WE START TO GET INTO THE RETURN FLOW SIDE OF THE
SURFACE HIGH. ALTHOUGH...AS MILDER AIR STARTS ADVECTING ACROSS ANY
REMAINING SNOWPACK...THE DEW POINT OF THAT AIR WILL LIKELY BE MILDER
THAN THE TEMPERATURE OF THE SNOW IT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1125 PM EST TUESDAY...

FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST...AND NOT EXPECTING ANY SUB VFR EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...THE BLF/LWB/BCB TO HAVE MVFR OR WORSE THROUGH
THE MORNING. THINK BCB WILL BE GOING TO VFR CIGS AT 13-14Z...THEN
SCATTERING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. CIGS TO STAY AROUND IN BLF/LWB
BUT RISE TO MVFR AFTER 15Z...MAY SEE SCATTERED CLOUDS IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT 00Z NAM/CMC STILL HANG ONTO THE LOWER CIGS INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. ATTM...WILL LEAVE IT SCATTERED FROM LATE
AFTERNOON-06Z THU. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY PRECIP AT BLF/LWB.

WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIME FROM THE WNW AT ROA/BLF AND BCB...THEN
WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY.



EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK RELATIVELY BENIGN...THOUGH LOWER CIGS
WILL LINGER IN THE WEST THU.

THE FRI NIGHT-SAT SYSTEM NOW HAS TRENDED WEAKER BUT WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED AS IT LOOKS TO STILL BRING A PERIOD OF SUB VFR
WINTRY WEATHER ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST SAT.

AVIATION INTERESTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION AS LATER
FORECASTS BECOME AVAILABLE. THIS WILL LIKELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON AIR
TRAVEL OVER THE WEEKEND...FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
CAROLINAS NORTH TO THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...KK/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...DS/KK/WP




000
FXUS61 KRNK 170455
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1155 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH DRY
WEATHER FOR MID WEEK. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES...REACHING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 935 PM EST TUESDAY...

RADAR VERY QUIET BUT TO BE EXPECTED AS MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IS OVERSHOT BY THE RADAR BEAM.
NONETHELESS...AS SHORTWAVE PIVOTS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT THE NW
FLOW IS GOING TO GENERATE ISOLATED/SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. AS
THE NIGHT WEARS ON THE MOISTURE BECOMES SHALLOW SO THAT DZ/FZDZ
WILL OCCUR. GIVEN THE LACK OF COVERAGE OF BELOW FREEZING
TEMPS...OPTED TO JUST ISSUE A SPECIAL WX STATEMENT FOR THE NC
MTNS/GRAYSON HIGHLANDS AND WRN GREENBRIER TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LIGHT
ICING/RIME ICING LATE TONIGHT.

THE FOG OUT EAST TO ERODE AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN AND WINDS PICK UP
SLIGHTLY. ALREADY HAVE SEEN LYH GO FROM 1/4SM FG TO 10SM IN LESS
THAN 1 HOUR.

STILL EXPECT LOWS FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE WRN SLOPES TO
UPPER 30S...NEAR 40 EAST.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

FOR EAST SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS...STRONG DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 30-35 KTS ARE PROGGED AT 85H...SO SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RIDGE CRESTS AND JUST LEE OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FT TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S IN THE PIEDMONT.

UPPER TROF SHIFTS OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AS WE TRANSITION TO A MORE
ZONAL UPPER FLOW BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. DOWNSLOPING DRYING EXPECTED FOR THE EAST.
WHILE IN THE WEST...UPSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN A VERY SHALLOW
MOIST LAYER LOCKED IN UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. WILL
CONTINUE CLOUDS AND THE UPSLOPE LIGHT RA/FZRA THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...THEN PRECIPITATION ENDS WHILE CLOUDS LINGER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 50S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM EST TUESDAY...

PATTERN IS PROGRESSIVE AND ZONAL THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS BRING A
SHORT WAVE FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH
CONSENSUS WITH THE LOCATION OF ANY PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY.
WHATEVER PRECIPITATION DOES FALL WILL BE LIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE RIDGE MOVES FAR ENOUGH
EAST BY THE END OF THE DAY FRIDAY FOR SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TO
COME AROUND TO THE EAST.

NO CHANGE IN AIR MASS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT WITH CLOUDS ON
THURSDAY WILL KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES NEAR COOLER MET GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST TUESDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE NOSE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH NOT WITH THE BEST ORIENTATION FOR OPTIMAL WEDGE
CONDITIONS. DESPITE THIS...WE STILL ANTICIPATE A MIX OF TEMPERATURES
A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING AT THE ONSET OF THE
EVENT...AND THROUGH THE SATURDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. AT
85H...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GULF
COAST STATES. GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED BY AN AVERAGE OF 6 HOURS ON THE
ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA. HAVE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY
WITH THE FORECAST. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING ENOUGH OF A RUN TO RUN
DIFFERENCE WITH EACH OTHER...AND WITH ITS OWN EARLIER RUNS FOR THERE
STILL TO BE NOTABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE
AT THE ONSET...AND DURING THE COURSE OF THE PRECIPITATION EVENT THIS
LOW WILL BRING TO OUR REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BY
SUNDAY...THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS THAT THE AREA
WILL BE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH ENOUGH COLD AIR ACROSS
THE REGION WITH A STIFF NORTHWEST WIND TRAJECTORY FOR UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE WEST TO CONCLUDE THE EVENT.

THE BEST CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS SUGGEST SOME TYPE OF WINTRY MIX
WHERE THE SURFACE AND BOUNDARY LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THIS WINTRY MIX
LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. ANY MIX ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
WILL BE LIMITED BY MILDER SURFACE AND BOUNDARY LEVEL TEMPERATURES
THERE...WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR A MIX TO BE ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE ROANOKE RIVER VALLEY. SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA...SOUTH INTO PARTS OF
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AT THIS POINT LOOK TO BE PRIMARILY RAIN.

GIVEN THESE VARIOUS UNCERTAINTIES AND LOCAL POLICY...THE FORECAST
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE A RAIN VERSUS
SNOW FORECAST...WITH THE FLEXIBILITY OF SOME AREAS WITH RAIN AND
SNOW SIMULTANEOUSLY. WHILE OUR FINAL WEATHER PICTURE MAY DEPICT A
GREATER RANGE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TYPES...RAIN VERSUS SNOW IS A
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO TAKE AT THIS POINT. IN A COUPLE OF
DAYS...OUR CONFIDENCE MAY HAVE INCREASED ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A
GREATER MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES IN THE FORECAST DURING THIS
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

AS MENTION EARLIER...BY THE TIME WE GET TO SUNDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE LIFTING OUT OF THE
REGION...AND SUB FREEZING AIR WILL HAVE WRAPPED IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM
AT THE LOWER LEVELS. ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION HAS A GREATER
CHANCE TO BE SNOW OR RAIN WITHOUT THE PRESENCE OF A WARM NOSE ALOFT.
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE PREFERRED AREA OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND
NEIGHBORING PARTS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA WILL GRADUALLY ERODE AS
DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE REGION AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
GRADUALLY BACKS WEST TO SOUTHWEST.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE THE REGION
WITH LIGHT WINDS...LIMITED CLOUD COVER AND NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY. THE GFS
IS QUICK TO BRING THE COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKE REGION. THIS
SYSTEM IS KEPT DISTINCT FROM A DISTURBANCE OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS THAT HAS LITTLE OR NO INTERACTION WITH THE GREAT LAKES
TROUGH THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF OUR FORECAST PERIOD. FOLLOWING
THIS SOLUTION YIELD LIMITED COVERAGE OF RAIN OR SNOW REACHING THE
WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY TUESDAY. THE
ECMWF SOLUTION ALSO HAS THE TWO SYSTEMS DISTINCT THROUGH
TUESDAY...BUT FOR A DIFFERENT REASON. THIS SOLUTIONS IS FARTHER WEST
WITH THE COASTAL SYSTEM...AND WRAPS MOISTURE...AND A WARM
NOSE...INTO OUR AREA DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY TUESDAY. THE GREAT
LAKES SYSTEM IS NOT AS PROGRESSIVE...AND HAS THE TIME TO ELONGATE MORE
SOUTH INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. IF THE ECMWF IS ON
TRACK...THE AREA WILL HAVE A GENEROUS COVERAGE OF A WINTRY MIX
MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. OUR
FORECAST AT THIS POINT WILL RESEMBLE MORE THAT OF THE GFS.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE TRICKY. WHILE WE ARE
EXPECTING A GENERAL TREND TOWARDS MILDER TEMPERATURES EACH DAY PAST
TUESDAY...HOW MUCH...AND WHERE ANY SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW
ARE DEPOSITED WILL PLAY A FACTOR IN BOTH THE HIGHS AND THE LOWS. AT
THIS POINT...AM LEANING ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE...WITH SOME
ALLOTMENT TOWARDS EVEN MORE COOLER WHERE...AT LEAST NOW...THE BEST
CHANCE OF SNOW IS EXPECTED. AT THIS POINT...WILL NOT TOUCH THE FOG
POTENTIAL ONCE WE START TO GET INTO THE RETURN FLOW SIDE OF THE
SURFACE HIGH. ALTHOUGH...AS MILDER AIR STARTS ADVECTING ACROSS ANY
REMAINING SNOWPACK...THE DEW POINT OF THAT AIR WILL LIKELY BE MILDER
THAN THE TEMPERATURE OF THE SNOW IT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1125 PM EST TUESDAY...

FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST...AND NOT EXPECTING ANY SUB VFR EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...THE BLF/LWB/BCB TO HAVE MVFR OR WORSE THROUGH
THE MORNING. THINK BCB WILL BE GOING TO VFR CIGS AT 13-14Z...THEN
SCATTERING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. CIGS TO STAY AROUND IN BLF/LWB
BUT RISE TO MVFR AFTER 15Z...MAY SEE SCATTERED CLOUDS IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT 00Z NAM/CMC STILL HANG ONTO THE LOWER CIGS INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. ATTM...WILL LEAVE IT SCATTERED FROM LATE
AFTERNOON-06Z THU. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY PRECIP AT BLF/LWB.

WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIME FROM THE WNW AT ROA/BLF AND BCB...THEN
WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY.



EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK RELATIVELY BENIGN...THOUGH LOWER CIGS
WILL LINGER IN THE WEST THU.

THE FRI NIGHT-SAT SYSTEM NOW HAS TRENDED WEAKER BUT WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED AS IT LOOKS TO STILL BRING A PERIOD OF SUB VFR
WINTRY WEATHER ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST SAT.

AVIATION INTERESTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION AS LATER
FORECASTS BECOME AVAILABLE. THIS WILL LIKELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON AIR
TRAVEL OVER THE WEEKEND...FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
CAROLINAS NORTH TO THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...KK/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...DS/KK/WP



000
FXUS61 KRNK 170455
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1155 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH DRY
WEATHER FOR MID WEEK. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES...REACHING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 935 PM EST TUESDAY...

RADAR VERY QUIET BUT TO BE EXPECTED AS MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IS OVERSHOT BY THE RADAR BEAM.
NONETHELESS...AS SHORTWAVE PIVOTS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT THE NW
FLOW IS GOING TO GENERATE ISOLATED/SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. AS
THE NIGHT WEARS ON THE MOISTURE BECOMES SHALLOW SO THAT DZ/FZDZ
WILL OCCUR. GIVEN THE LACK OF COVERAGE OF BELOW FREEZING
TEMPS...OPTED TO JUST ISSUE A SPECIAL WX STATEMENT FOR THE NC
MTNS/GRAYSON HIGHLANDS AND WRN GREENBRIER TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LIGHT
ICING/RIME ICING LATE TONIGHT.

THE FOG OUT EAST TO ERODE AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN AND WINDS PICK UP
SLIGHTLY. ALREADY HAVE SEEN LYH GO FROM 1/4SM FG TO 10SM IN LESS
THAN 1 HOUR.

STILL EXPECT LOWS FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE WRN SLOPES TO
UPPER 30S...NEAR 40 EAST.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

FOR EAST SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS...STRONG DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 30-35 KTS ARE PROGGED AT 85H...SO SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RIDGE CRESTS AND JUST LEE OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FT TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S IN THE PIEDMONT.

UPPER TROF SHIFTS OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AS WE TRANSITION TO A MORE
ZONAL UPPER FLOW BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. DOWNSLOPING DRYING EXPECTED FOR THE EAST.
WHILE IN THE WEST...UPSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN A VERY SHALLOW
MOIST LAYER LOCKED IN UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. WILL
CONTINUE CLOUDS AND THE UPSLOPE LIGHT RA/FZRA THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...THEN PRECIPITATION ENDS WHILE CLOUDS LINGER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 50S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM EST TUESDAY...

PATTERN IS PROGRESSIVE AND ZONAL THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS BRING A
SHORT WAVE FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH
CONSENSUS WITH THE LOCATION OF ANY PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY.
WHATEVER PRECIPITATION DOES FALL WILL BE LIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE RIDGE MOVES FAR ENOUGH
EAST BY THE END OF THE DAY FRIDAY FOR SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TO
COME AROUND TO THE EAST.

NO CHANGE IN AIR MASS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT WITH CLOUDS ON
THURSDAY WILL KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES NEAR COOLER MET GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST TUESDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE NOSE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH NOT WITH THE BEST ORIENTATION FOR OPTIMAL WEDGE
CONDITIONS. DESPITE THIS...WE STILL ANTICIPATE A MIX OF TEMPERATURES
A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING AT THE ONSET OF THE
EVENT...AND THROUGH THE SATURDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. AT
85H...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GULF
COAST STATES. GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED BY AN AVERAGE OF 6 HOURS ON THE
ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA. HAVE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY
WITH THE FORECAST. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING ENOUGH OF A RUN TO RUN
DIFFERENCE WITH EACH OTHER...AND WITH ITS OWN EARLIER RUNS FOR THERE
STILL TO BE NOTABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE
AT THE ONSET...AND DURING THE COURSE OF THE PRECIPITATION EVENT THIS
LOW WILL BRING TO OUR REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BY
SUNDAY...THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS THAT THE AREA
WILL BE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH ENOUGH COLD AIR ACROSS
THE REGION WITH A STIFF NORTHWEST WIND TRAJECTORY FOR UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE WEST TO CONCLUDE THE EVENT.

THE BEST CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS SUGGEST SOME TYPE OF WINTRY MIX
WHERE THE SURFACE AND BOUNDARY LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THIS WINTRY MIX
LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. ANY MIX ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
WILL BE LIMITED BY MILDER SURFACE AND BOUNDARY LEVEL TEMPERATURES
THERE...WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR A MIX TO BE ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE ROANOKE RIVER VALLEY. SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA...SOUTH INTO PARTS OF
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AT THIS POINT LOOK TO BE PRIMARILY RAIN.

GIVEN THESE VARIOUS UNCERTAINTIES AND LOCAL POLICY...THE FORECAST
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE A RAIN VERSUS
SNOW FORECAST...WITH THE FLEXIBILITY OF SOME AREAS WITH RAIN AND
SNOW SIMULTANEOUSLY. WHILE OUR FINAL WEATHER PICTURE MAY DEPICT A
GREATER RANGE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TYPES...RAIN VERSUS SNOW IS A
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO TAKE AT THIS POINT. IN A COUPLE OF
DAYS...OUR CONFIDENCE MAY HAVE INCREASED ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A
GREATER MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES IN THE FORECAST DURING THIS
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

AS MENTION EARLIER...BY THE TIME WE GET TO SUNDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE LIFTING OUT OF THE
REGION...AND SUB FREEZING AIR WILL HAVE WRAPPED IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM
AT THE LOWER LEVELS. ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION HAS A GREATER
CHANCE TO BE SNOW OR RAIN WITHOUT THE PRESENCE OF A WARM NOSE ALOFT.
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE PREFERRED AREA OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND
NEIGHBORING PARTS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA WILL GRADUALLY ERODE AS
DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE REGION AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
GRADUALLY BACKS WEST TO SOUTHWEST.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE THE REGION
WITH LIGHT WINDS...LIMITED CLOUD COVER AND NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY. THE GFS
IS QUICK TO BRING THE COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKE REGION. THIS
SYSTEM IS KEPT DISTINCT FROM A DISTURBANCE OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS THAT HAS LITTLE OR NO INTERACTION WITH THE GREAT LAKES
TROUGH THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF OUR FORECAST PERIOD. FOLLOWING
THIS SOLUTION YIELD LIMITED COVERAGE OF RAIN OR SNOW REACHING THE
WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY TUESDAY. THE
ECMWF SOLUTION ALSO HAS THE TWO SYSTEMS DISTINCT THROUGH
TUESDAY...BUT FOR A DIFFERENT REASON. THIS SOLUTIONS IS FARTHER WEST
WITH THE COASTAL SYSTEM...AND WRAPS MOISTURE...AND A WARM
NOSE...INTO OUR AREA DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY TUESDAY. THE GREAT
LAKES SYSTEM IS NOT AS PROGRESSIVE...AND HAS THE TIME TO ELONGATE MORE
SOUTH INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. IF THE ECMWF IS ON
TRACK...THE AREA WILL HAVE A GENEROUS COVERAGE OF A WINTRY MIX
MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. OUR
FORECAST AT THIS POINT WILL RESEMBLE MORE THAT OF THE GFS.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE TRICKY. WHILE WE ARE
EXPECTING A GENERAL TREND TOWARDS MILDER TEMPERATURES EACH DAY PAST
TUESDAY...HOW MUCH...AND WHERE ANY SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW
ARE DEPOSITED WILL PLAY A FACTOR IN BOTH THE HIGHS AND THE LOWS. AT
THIS POINT...AM LEANING ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE...WITH SOME
ALLOTMENT TOWARDS EVEN MORE COOLER WHERE...AT LEAST NOW...THE BEST
CHANCE OF SNOW IS EXPECTED. AT THIS POINT...WILL NOT TOUCH THE FOG
POTENTIAL ONCE WE START TO GET INTO THE RETURN FLOW SIDE OF THE
SURFACE HIGH. ALTHOUGH...AS MILDER AIR STARTS ADVECTING ACROSS ANY
REMAINING SNOWPACK...THE DEW POINT OF THAT AIR WILL LIKELY BE MILDER
THAN THE TEMPERATURE OF THE SNOW IT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1125 PM EST TUESDAY...

FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST...AND NOT EXPECTING ANY SUB VFR EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...THE BLF/LWB/BCB TO HAVE MVFR OR WORSE THROUGH
THE MORNING. THINK BCB WILL BE GOING TO VFR CIGS AT 13-14Z...THEN
SCATTERING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. CIGS TO STAY AROUND IN BLF/LWB
BUT RISE TO MVFR AFTER 15Z...MAY SEE SCATTERED CLOUDS IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT 00Z NAM/CMC STILL HANG ONTO THE LOWER CIGS INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. ATTM...WILL LEAVE IT SCATTERED FROM LATE
AFTERNOON-06Z THU. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY PRECIP AT BLF/LWB.

WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIME FROM THE WNW AT ROA/BLF AND BCB...THEN
WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY.



EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK RELATIVELY BENIGN...THOUGH LOWER CIGS
WILL LINGER IN THE WEST THU.

THE FRI NIGHT-SAT SYSTEM NOW HAS TRENDED WEAKER BUT WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED AS IT LOOKS TO STILL BRING A PERIOD OF SUB VFR
WINTRY WEATHER ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST SAT.

AVIATION INTERESTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION AS LATER
FORECASTS BECOME AVAILABLE. THIS WILL LIKELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON AIR
TRAVEL OVER THE WEEKEND...FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
CAROLINAS NORTH TO THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...KK/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...DS/KK/WP




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