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000
FXUS61 KLWX 281836
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
136 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVERHEAD THIS EVENING BEFORE MOVING OFF TO OUR
EAST LATE TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH LATE
TONIGHT AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN MILDER CONDITIONS FOR
THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A STROTOCU DECK ALONG WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE LATE AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...MORE HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
QUICKLY BUILD OVERHEAD THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSES
THROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST LATE TONIGHT AND A WEAK WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION DURING THIS TIME. AT THE
SAME TIME...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE PASSING THROUGH WITH MOST OF
THE ENERGY REMAINING TO OUR NORTH. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
WARM FRONT ALONG WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY BE ENOUGH TO
OVERCOME THE DRY AIR IN PLACE FOR A FEW FLURRIES AND PERHAPS A
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW FOR LOCATIONS NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE. AS
OF NOW...IT APPEARS THAT WITH THE BEST FORCING REMAINING TO OUR
NORTH THE ACCUMULATING SNOW IS MOST LIKELY TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH.
HOWEVER...A WHITENING OF THE GROUND CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING FOR LOCATIONS NEAR THE MASON-
DIXON LINE. MIN TEMPS WILL BE COLD...RANGING FROM THE TEENS ALONG
THE ALLEGHENY FRONT TO THE LOWER 30S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE.

THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AWAY FROM OUR REGION SATURDAY
TO OUR NORTH. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ALSO BE FOCUSED TO OUR NORTH
AS WELL. THEREFORE...ANY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES EARLY WILL
DISSIPATE. A SOUTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL COMBINE WITH SOME SUNSHINE
TO BRING MILDER CONDITIONS COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE BROKEN DECK OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVERHEAD
KEEPING MAX TEMPS BELOW CLIMO. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM NEAR 40 ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE TO THE UPPER 40S IN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD RIDGING OVER THE ERN CONUS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH A WARMING TREND BRINGING TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL SET UP A PERSISTENT CLOUD LAYER IN THE
LOWER MID- LEVEL INVERSION. ALMOST ALL PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BE
OVER THE ERN MIDWEST TO THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. FORCING WEST OF THE
AREA TURNS TO CONVERGENCE LATE SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. PRECIP EXPECTED TO BE RAIN THROUGH THE EVENT
AS THERMAL PROFILES EXCEED FREEZING BELOW 800MB OR SO. DRY EAST OF
THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WITH SWLY/SLY FLOW 10 TO 15 MPH MAINTAINED
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IN DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT.

LAST DAY OF NOVEMBER WILL HAVE SWLY FLOW AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES MID TO UPR 50S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS...LOW 60S POSSIBLE
IN THE SWRN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO BE MORE
SCATTERED. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SINK THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY. THERE IS NOT
A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT AND MOST MODELS ONLY HAVE
SCATTERED SHOWERS. AS SUCH HAVE CAPPED POPS AT CHANCE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
COLUMN COOLS.

STRONG AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BY TO THE NORTH TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW/ISENTROPIC LIFT SETS UP AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT /WHICH WILL HAVE STALLED TO THE SOUTH/ RETURNS
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. AT LEAST LIGHT PRECIPITATION SEEMS PLAUSIBLE
IN THIS SETUP SO HAVE CHANCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL. KEPT IT AS
A GENERIC RAIN/SNOW MIX BUT OTHER PTYPES MAY COME INTO PLAY AS WELL
AS STRONG COLD AIR DAMMING SIGNATURE IS EVIDENT WHILE WARM AIR
OVERRUNS THE COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE.

WARMING TREND CONTINUES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BRINGING WITH IT ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...A FEW
FLURRIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY
FLURRIES. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY BY SUNSET. LIGHT
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. GUSTS
AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

BKN LOWER MID-LEVEL CIGS PREVAIL SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...PERIODIC MVFR POSSIBLE...VFR VSBYS WITH DRY WEATHER.
SWLY/SLY 10-15 KT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY
BEFORE SLACKING SUNDAY NIGHT.

SPOTTY SUB-VFR POSSIBLE MON EVE IN ISO SHWRS. SW FLOW AOB 10 KTS MON
BECOMES NW AROUND 10-20 KTS GUSTING TO 25 KTS FOLLOWING FROPA MON
EVE. VFR TUE W/ WIND TURNING N 10-20 KTS...THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WIND TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED W/ SUB-VFR LIKELY IN LOW CIGS/LIGHT
PRECIP.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS UNTIL 6 PM FOR NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING AROUND 20 KNOTS. NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST SATURDAY AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SWLY FLOW BECOMES MORE SLY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SCA FOR UP TO 25 KT
CHANNELING UP THE MAIN PORTION OF THE BAY AND 20 KT FOR EASTERN
TRIBUTARIES AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC. 20 KT WINDS LIKELY CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS.

SOUTHWEST WIND BECOME NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS W/ GUSTS
TO 25 KTS MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT SINKS THROUGH THE WATERS. NORTHERLY
CHANNELING COULD RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF WIND GUSTS TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR A TIME TUESDAY OVER PARTS OF THE WATERS.
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ535-
     536-538-542.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...BAJ/BJL/DFH
MARINE...BAJ/BJL/DFH







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000
FXUS61 KRNK 281757
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1257 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY REACHING THE
COAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH SLIPS OFF TO OUR
SOUTHEAST DURING THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS....FOLLOWED BY SOMEWHAT COLDER WEATHER BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1250 PM EST FRIDAY...

ALL THE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES HAVE ENDED BUT CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO PERSIST IN THE WEST UNDER DECREASING NW FLOW. TEMPS ON FORECAST
TRACK FOR HIGHS UPPER 20S NW TO LOW 40S SE.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
AS OF 215 AM EST FRIDAY...

SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING REACHING
COASTAL SECTIONS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING RETURN FLOW BACK TO
THE REGION WITH STEADY 85H WARMING UNDER A WEAK WAVE PASSING WELL
TO THE NORTH BY MORNING. HOWEVER APPEARS LITTLE MIXING OF WARMER
AIR ALOFT TO THE SURFACE WILL BE REALIZED EXCEPT UP ON THE RIDGES
SO ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IN STORE. INFILTRATION OF PASSING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS UNDER THE DISTURBANCE TO THE NORTH...LIKELY TO OCCUR AS
MOISTURE ALOFT SPILLS EAST/SE WITHIN THE WNW FLOW ALOFT SO OVERALL
CLEAR SW...TO MAINLY PC ELSW WITH MORE CLOUDINESS OVER THE NORTH.
THIS MAY TEND TO HOLD TEMPS UP SOME BUT STILL APPEARS LOWS MOSTLY
20S EXCEPT PERHAPS STEADY OR RISING INTO THE 30S RIDGETOPS LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 210 AM EST FRIDAY...

FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...AND SOUTHWEST FLOW...WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOSER TO
THE SURFACE. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF MODERATING TEMPERATURES
AND NO PRECIPITATION FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION. THE ONE
AREA WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE THE
PORTION OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64 WEST OF COVINGTON. THIS REGION WILL BE IN
CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY THAT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY SKIRT THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY...AND EVEN MORE SO MONDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL DIP SOUTHEAST TROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND THEN
INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FOR TWO REASONS. FIRST WILL BE
THE SHOWERY PRECIPITATION CONCURRENT TO THE FRONT. THE SECOND REASON
WILL BE A BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT TO A
SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THIS WILL PROMPT UPSLOPE
STRATOFORM PATCHES OR AREAS OF RAIN ALONG AND EAST OF THE CREST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE ON MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE TO
OR MIX WITH SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 256 PM EST THURSDAY...

APPROACHING COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH ON MONDAY. BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN DOWNSLOPE EAST OF THE RIDGE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN AGGRESSIVELY WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD
ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN TO OUR TEMPS. CHANCE
POPS STILL WARRANTED THROUGH MIDWEEK DUE TO POSSIBLE UPSLOPE IN
E/SELY FLOW. NEXT APPROACHING LOW IS A FAIRLY SHALLOW AMPLITUDE
WAVE AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE HIGH TO DRIFT TO OUR EAST AND
LINGER A BIT...WITH RETURN FLOW WARMING US BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS
FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1250 PM EST FRIDAY...

MOUNTAIN TAF SITES NEAR MVFR CIGS AS NW FLOW CONTINUES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON BUT ALL SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES HAVE ENDED AND VSBYS
ARE VFR. SHOULD SEE SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS THIS AFTERNOON BUT
A COMBO OF WARM ADVECTION ALOFT AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING TO
THE NORTH LIKELY TO SPILL SOME MID CLOUDS WITH BASES ABOVE 8K FT
INTO THE REGION BY LATER AFTERNOON...WITH MORE BKN CIGS POSSIBLE
ESPCLY ALONG THE KLWB-KLYH CORRIDOR THIS EVENING.

OTRW EXPECTING WIDESPREAD VFR OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER
LIGHT WINDS THAT WILL BACK MORE SW BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF
SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MAY BRING MVFR CIGS TO AREAS
FROM KBCB WESTWARD. THIS COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE REGION MON-
TUE WITH A CHANCE OF -SHRA AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG THE FRONT
FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL EASTERLY FLOW...THUS
ASSOCIATED MVFR CIGS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WAS MALFUNCTIONING
AGAIN. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER BUT THE REPAIR MAY NOT BE UNTIL
MONDAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLYH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STAFF WHEN THE
CONTROL TOWER IS OPEN...OTHERWISE THE VISIBILITY WILL BE MISSING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/MBS
NEAR TERM...JH/PC
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...JH/PC
EQUIPMENT...AMS



000
FXUS61 KRNK 281757
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1257 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY REACHING THE
COAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH SLIPS OFF TO OUR
SOUTHEAST DURING THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS....FOLLOWED BY SOMEWHAT COLDER WEATHER BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1250 PM EST FRIDAY...

ALL THE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES HAVE ENDED BUT CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO PERSIST IN THE WEST UNDER DECREASING NW FLOW. TEMPS ON FORECAST
TRACK FOR HIGHS UPPER 20S NW TO LOW 40S SE.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
AS OF 215 AM EST FRIDAY...

SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING REACHING
COASTAL SECTIONS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING RETURN FLOW BACK TO
THE REGION WITH STEADY 85H WARMING UNDER A WEAK WAVE PASSING WELL
TO THE NORTH BY MORNING. HOWEVER APPEARS LITTLE MIXING OF WARMER
AIR ALOFT TO THE SURFACE WILL BE REALIZED EXCEPT UP ON THE RIDGES
SO ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IN STORE. INFILTRATION OF PASSING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS UNDER THE DISTURBANCE TO THE NORTH...LIKELY TO OCCUR AS
MOISTURE ALOFT SPILLS EAST/SE WITHIN THE WNW FLOW ALOFT SO OVERALL
CLEAR SW...TO MAINLY PC ELSW WITH MORE CLOUDINESS OVER THE NORTH.
THIS MAY TEND TO HOLD TEMPS UP SOME BUT STILL APPEARS LOWS MOSTLY
20S EXCEPT PERHAPS STEADY OR RISING INTO THE 30S RIDGETOPS LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 210 AM EST FRIDAY...

FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...AND SOUTHWEST FLOW...WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOSER TO
THE SURFACE. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF MODERATING TEMPERATURES
AND NO PRECIPITATION FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION. THE ONE
AREA WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE THE
PORTION OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64 WEST OF COVINGTON. THIS REGION WILL BE IN
CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY THAT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY SKIRT THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY...AND EVEN MORE SO MONDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL DIP SOUTHEAST TROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND THEN
INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FOR TWO REASONS. FIRST WILL BE
THE SHOWERY PRECIPITATION CONCURRENT TO THE FRONT. THE SECOND REASON
WILL BE A BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT TO A
SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THIS WILL PROMPT UPSLOPE
STRATOFORM PATCHES OR AREAS OF RAIN ALONG AND EAST OF THE CREST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE ON MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE TO
OR MIX WITH SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 256 PM EST THURSDAY...

APPROACHING COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH ON MONDAY. BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN DOWNSLOPE EAST OF THE RIDGE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN AGGRESSIVELY WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD
ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN TO OUR TEMPS. CHANCE
POPS STILL WARRANTED THROUGH MIDWEEK DUE TO POSSIBLE UPSLOPE IN
E/SELY FLOW. NEXT APPROACHING LOW IS A FAIRLY SHALLOW AMPLITUDE
WAVE AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE HIGH TO DRIFT TO OUR EAST AND
LINGER A BIT...WITH RETURN FLOW WARMING US BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS
FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1250 PM EST FRIDAY...

MOUNTAIN TAF SITES NEAR MVFR CIGS AS NW FLOW CONTINUES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON BUT ALL SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES HAVE ENDED AND VSBYS
ARE VFR. SHOULD SEE SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS THIS AFTERNOON BUT
A COMBO OF WARM ADVECTION ALOFT AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING TO
THE NORTH LIKELY TO SPILL SOME MID CLOUDS WITH BASES ABOVE 8K FT
INTO THE REGION BY LATER AFTERNOON...WITH MORE BKN CIGS POSSIBLE
ESPCLY ALONG THE KLWB-KLYH CORRIDOR THIS EVENING.

OTRW EXPECTING WIDESPREAD VFR OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER
LIGHT WINDS THAT WILL BACK MORE SW BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF
SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MAY BRING MVFR CIGS TO AREAS
FROM KBCB WESTWARD. THIS COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE REGION MON-
TUE WITH A CHANCE OF -SHRA AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG THE FRONT
FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL EASTERLY FLOW...THUS
ASSOCIATED MVFR CIGS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WAS MALFUNCTIONING
AGAIN. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER BUT THE REPAIR MAY NOT BE UNTIL
MONDAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLYH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STAFF WHEN THE
CONTROL TOWER IS OPEN...OTHERWISE THE VISIBILITY WILL BE MISSING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/MBS
NEAR TERM...JH/PC
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...JH/PC
EQUIPMENT...AMS



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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281746
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1246 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TODAY. THE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE TN VALLEY WILL BUILD EASTWARD
OVER THE LOCAL AREA BY THE END OF THE DAY. SUNSHINE WILL BE
PLENTIFUL TODAY WITH DRY NW FLOW ALOFT. DESPITE THE SUNSHINE...MAX
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS 40-45. NORMAL
HIGHS ARE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD TONIGHT BUT WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS DUE TO
FLATTENING UPR FLOW. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WITH LOW
LEVEL-FLOW BECOMING MORE S-SW...MODERATING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE WEEKEND. HIGHS SAT FROM THE UPR 40S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 50S
SOUTH. WARMING BACK ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 50S
TO AROUND 60 NORTH TO THE MID 60S SOUTH. SKIES TURN OUT PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY ON SAT...THEN MOSTLY SUNNY FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WILL SEND A COUPLE OF FAST MOVING COLD
FRONTS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
RIDGING ALONG THE LATITUDE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA WILL
KEEP HEIGHTS HIGH ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE SOUTHWARD PENETRATION OF
ARCTIC AIR.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MID LEVEL MOISTURE FOLLOWING THE
FRONT MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST WITH A CLEARING SKY
FROM THE WEST BUT SLGT CHC POPS CONTINUING TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG
TERM. HIGHS IN THE UPR 50S NE TO MID 60S SW MONDAY COOL TO THE MID
40S NW TO MID 50S SE TUESDAY. HIGHS IN THE 50S ARE FORECAST
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOWS IN THE 40S MONDAY MORNING LOWER TO THE
UPR 30S TO MID 40S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SLIDE EAST OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT AND THEN OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. GUSTY
N/NW WINDS AT MIDDAY WILL DIMINISH BY 20 OR 21Z AND BECOME CALM OR
LGT AND VRBL TONIGHT. A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY BEGINS THE FORECAST. A WARM
ADVECTION MID CLOUD DECK WILL AFFECT SKY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...
ESPECIALLY AT RIC AND SBY. WINDS TURN TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY WITH SCT
HIGH CLOUDS ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THERE WILL BE A SLGT TO LOW CHC FOR RAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR THE RIVERS EXTENDED TIL 1 PM AS NW WINDS CONTINUE GUSTY
WITH THE INFLUENCE OF GOOD MIXING FROM COLD AIR TEMPERATURES.
MODELS HAVE WINDS DIMINISHING MOST OF THE BAY BY 18Z BUT EXPECT
WAVES AND OR WINDS TO CONTINUE SCA IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY LONGER
AND EXTENDED SCA THERE UNTIL 21Z/4 PM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HI PRES WILL BLD TWD THE AREA FM THE W TODAY INTO THIS
EVENG...THEN SLIDES OUT TO SEA FOR SAT INTO MON. STRONG CAA
EXPECTED THIS MORNG INTO THIS AFTN...WITH NW WINDS 15-25 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO OR ARND 30 KT OVR THE WTRS. SEAS WILL BLD TO 4-6 FT
WITH WAVES 3-4 FT. SCA HEADLINES REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM THIS
MORNG FOR THE RIVERS...UNTIL 1 PM THIS AFTN FOR THE CHES BAY AND
CURRITUCK SND...AND THRU THIS AFTN FOR THE CSTL WTRS. CALMER
CONDITIONS TNGT INTO SAT MORNG...AS THE HI BLDS RIGHT OVRHD. SW OR
S WINDS 10 TO 20 KT EXPECTED SAT THRU SUN NGT...WITH WAVES 1 TO 3
FT...AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WTRS
MON AFTN INTO MON NGT. HI PRES THEN BLDS OVER NEW ENGLAND
TUE...RIDGING OVER CNTRL VA. RESULTANT N-NE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO
NEAR SCA CONDITIONS MON NGT-TUE AS SEAS BLD TO 4-6 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...SAM/LSA
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...TMG/LSA






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281746
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1246 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TODAY. THE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE TN VALLEY WILL BUILD EASTWARD
OVER THE LOCAL AREA BY THE END OF THE DAY. SUNSHINE WILL BE
PLENTIFUL TODAY WITH DRY NW FLOW ALOFT. DESPITE THE SUNSHINE...MAX
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS 40-45. NORMAL
HIGHS ARE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD TONIGHT BUT WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS DUE TO
FLATTENING UPR FLOW. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WITH LOW
LEVEL-FLOW BECOMING MORE S-SW...MODERATING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE WEEKEND. HIGHS SAT FROM THE UPR 40S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 50S
SOUTH. WARMING BACK ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 50S
TO AROUND 60 NORTH TO THE MID 60S SOUTH. SKIES TURN OUT PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY ON SAT...THEN MOSTLY SUNNY FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WILL SEND A COUPLE OF FAST MOVING COLD
FRONTS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
RIDGING ALONG THE LATITUDE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA WILL
KEEP HEIGHTS HIGH ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE SOUTHWARD PENETRATION OF
ARCTIC AIR.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MID LEVEL MOISTURE FOLLOWING THE
FRONT MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST WITH A CLEARING SKY
FROM THE WEST BUT SLGT CHC POPS CONTINUING TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG
TERM. HIGHS IN THE UPR 50S NE TO MID 60S SW MONDAY COOL TO THE MID
40S NW TO MID 50S SE TUESDAY. HIGHS IN THE 50S ARE FORECAST
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOWS IN THE 40S MONDAY MORNING LOWER TO THE
UPR 30S TO MID 40S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SLIDE EAST OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT AND THEN OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. GUSTY
N/NW WINDS AT MIDDAY WILL DIMINISH BY 20 OR 21Z AND BECOME CALM OR
LGT AND VRBL TONIGHT. A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY BEGINS THE FORECAST. A WARM
ADVECTION MID CLOUD DECK WILL AFFECT SKY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...
ESPECIALLY AT RIC AND SBY. WINDS TURN TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY WITH SCT
HIGH CLOUDS ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THERE WILL BE A SLGT TO LOW CHC FOR RAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR THE RIVERS EXTENDED TIL 1 PM AS NW WINDS CONTINUE GUSTY
WITH THE INFLUENCE OF GOOD MIXING FROM COLD AIR TEMPERATURES.
MODELS HAVE WINDS DIMINISHING MOST OF THE BAY BY 18Z BUT EXPECT
WAVES AND OR WINDS TO CONTINUE SCA IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY LONGER
AND EXTENDED SCA THERE UNTIL 21Z/4 PM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HI PRES WILL BLD TWD THE AREA FM THE W TODAY INTO THIS
EVENG...THEN SLIDES OUT TO SEA FOR SAT INTO MON. STRONG CAA
EXPECTED THIS MORNG INTO THIS AFTN...WITH NW WINDS 15-25 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO OR ARND 30 KT OVR THE WTRS. SEAS WILL BLD TO 4-6 FT
WITH WAVES 3-4 FT. SCA HEADLINES REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM THIS
MORNG FOR THE RIVERS...UNTIL 1 PM THIS AFTN FOR THE CHES BAY AND
CURRITUCK SND...AND THRU THIS AFTN FOR THE CSTL WTRS. CALMER
CONDITIONS TNGT INTO SAT MORNG...AS THE HI BLDS RIGHT OVRHD. SW OR
S WINDS 10 TO 20 KT EXPECTED SAT THRU SUN NGT...WITH WAVES 1 TO 3
FT...AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WTRS
MON AFTN INTO MON NGT. HI PRES THEN BLDS OVER NEW ENGLAND
TUE...RIDGING OVER CNTRL VA. RESULTANT N-NE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO
NEAR SCA CONDITIONS MON NGT-TUE AS SEAS BLD TO 4-6 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...SAM/LSA
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...TMG/LSA







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281505
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1005 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TODAY. THE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE TN VALLEY WILL BUILD EASTWARD
OVER THE LOCAL AREA BY THE END OF THE DAY. SUNSHINE WILL BE
PLENTIFUL TODAY WITH DRY NW FLOW ALOFT. DESPITE THE SUNSHINE...MAX
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS 40-45. NORMAL
HIGHS ARE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD TONIGHT BUT WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS DUE TO
FLATTENING UPR FLOW. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WITH LOW
LEVEL-FLOW BECOMING MORE S-SW...MODERATING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE WEEKEND. HIGHS SAT FROM THE UPR 40S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 50S
SOUTH. WARMING BACK ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 50S
TO AROUND 60 NORTH TO THE MID 60S SOUTH. SKIES TURN OUT PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY ON SAT...THEN MOSTLY SUNNY FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WILL SEND A COUPLE OF FAST MOVING COLD
FRONTS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
RIDGING ALONG THE LATITUDE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA WILL
KEEP HEIGHTS HIGH ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE SOUTHWARD PENETRATION OF
ARCTIC AIR.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MID LEVEL MOISTURE FOLLOWING THE
FRONT MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST WITH A CLEARING SKY
FROM THE WEST BUT SLGT CHC POPS CONTINUING TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG
TERM. HIGHS IN THE UPR 50S NE TO MID 60S SW MONDAY COOL TO THE MID
40S NW TO MID 50S SE TUESDAY. HIGHS IN THE 50S ARE FORECAST
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOWS IN THE 40S MONDAY MORNING LOWER TO THE
UPR 30S TO MID 40S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HI PRES WILL BLD OVR THE AREA DURING TODAY...RESULTING IN VFR
CONDITIONS PERSISTING AT THE TAF SITES. EXPECT JUST HI CLOUDS AND
MAYBE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS EVENG THRU SAT...AS A WEAK WARM
FRONT ALOFT LIFTS INTO AND ACRS THE AREA. NW WINDS WILL GUST TO
NEAR 20 KT LATE THIS MORNING...AS CAA CONTINUES ACRS THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SSW WINDS ARE EXPECTED SAT
NGT INTO MON...AS HI PRES WILL BE OFF THE MID ATLC/SE CST.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR THE RIVERS EXTENDED TIL 1 PM AS NW WINDS CONTINUE GUSTY
WITH THE INFLUENCE OF GOOD MIXING FROM COLD AIR TEMPERATURES.
MODELS HAVE WINDS DIMINISHING MOST OF THE BAY BY 18Z BUT EXPECT
WAVES AND OR WINDS TO CONTINUE SCA IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY LONGER
AND EXTENDED SCA THERE UNTIL 21Z/4 PM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HI PRES WILL BLD TWD THE AREA FM THE W TODAY INTO THIS
EVENG...THEN SLIDES OUT TO SEA FOR SAT INTO MON. STRONG CAA
EXPECTED THIS MORNG INTO THIS AFTN...WITH NW WINDS 15-25 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO OR ARND 30 KT OVR THE WTRS. SEAS WILL BLD TO 4-6 FT
WITH WAVES 3-4 FT. SCA HEADLINES REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM THIS
MORNG FOR THE RIVERS...UNTIL 1 PM THIS AFTN FOR THE CHES BAY AND
CURRITUCK SND...AND THRU THIS AFTN FOR THE CSTL WTRS. CALMER
CONDITIONS TNGT INTO SAT MORNG...AS THE HI BLDS RIGHT OVRHD. SW OR
S WINDS 10 TO 20 KT EXPECTED SAT THRU SUN NGT...WITH WAVES 1 TO 3
FT...AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WTRS
MON AFTN INTO MON NGT. HI PRES THEN BLDS OVER NEW ENGLAND
TUE...RIDGING OVER CNTRL VA. RESULTANT N-NE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO
NEAR SCA CONDITIONS MON NGT-TUE AS SEAS BLD TO 4-6 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>633-635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...SAM/LSA
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG/LSA






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281505
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1005 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TODAY. THE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE TN VALLEY WILL BUILD EASTWARD
OVER THE LOCAL AREA BY THE END OF THE DAY. SUNSHINE WILL BE
PLENTIFUL TODAY WITH DRY NW FLOW ALOFT. DESPITE THE SUNSHINE...MAX
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS 40-45. NORMAL
HIGHS ARE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD TONIGHT BUT WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS DUE TO
FLATTENING UPR FLOW. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WITH LOW
LEVEL-FLOW BECOMING MORE S-SW...MODERATING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE WEEKEND. HIGHS SAT FROM THE UPR 40S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 50S
SOUTH. WARMING BACK ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 50S
TO AROUND 60 NORTH TO THE MID 60S SOUTH. SKIES TURN OUT PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY ON SAT...THEN MOSTLY SUNNY FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WILL SEND A COUPLE OF FAST MOVING COLD
FRONTS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
RIDGING ALONG THE LATITUDE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA WILL
KEEP HEIGHTS HIGH ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE SOUTHWARD PENETRATION OF
ARCTIC AIR.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MID LEVEL MOISTURE FOLLOWING THE
FRONT MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST WITH A CLEARING SKY
FROM THE WEST BUT SLGT CHC POPS CONTINUING TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG
TERM. HIGHS IN THE UPR 50S NE TO MID 60S SW MONDAY COOL TO THE MID
40S NW TO MID 50S SE TUESDAY. HIGHS IN THE 50S ARE FORECAST
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOWS IN THE 40S MONDAY MORNING LOWER TO THE
UPR 30S TO MID 40S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HI PRES WILL BLD OVR THE AREA DURING TODAY...RESULTING IN VFR
CONDITIONS PERSISTING AT THE TAF SITES. EXPECT JUST HI CLOUDS AND
MAYBE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS EVENG THRU SAT...AS A WEAK WARM
FRONT ALOFT LIFTS INTO AND ACRS THE AREA. NW WINDS WILL GUST TO
NEAR 20 KT LATE THIS MORNING...AS CAA CONTINUES ACRS THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SSW WINDS ARE EXPECTED SAT
NGT INTO MON...AS HI PRES WILL BE OFF THE MID ATLC/SE CST.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR THE RIVERS EXTENDED TIL 1 PM AS NW WINDS CONTINUE GUSTY
WITH THE INFLUENCE OF GOOD MIXING FROM COLD AIR TEMPERATURES.
MODELS HAVE WINDS DIMINISHING MOST OF THE BAY BY 18Z BUT EXPECT
WAVES AND OR WINDS TO CONTINUE SCA IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY LONGER
AND EXTENDED SCA THERE UNTIL 21Z/4 PM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HI PRES WILL BLD TWD THE AREA FM THE W TODAY INTO THIS
EVENG...THEN SLIDES OUT TO SEA FOR SAT INTO MON. STRONG CAA
EXPECTED THIS MORNG INTO THIS AFTN...WITH NW WINDS 15-25 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO OR ARND 30 KT OVR THE WTRS. SEAS WILL BLD TO 4-6 FT
WITH WAVES 3-4 FT. SCA HEADLINES REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM THIS
MORNG FOR THE RIVERS...UNTIL 1 PM THIS AFTN FOR THE CHES BAY AND
CURRITUCK SND...AND THRU THIS AFTN FOR THE CSTL WTRS. CALMER
CONDITIONS TNGT INTO SAT MORNG...AS THE HI BLDS RIGHT OVRHD. SW OR
S WINDS 10 TO 20 KT EXPECTED SAT THRU SUN NGT...WITH WAVES 1 TO 3
FT...AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WTRS
MON AFTN INTO MON NGT. HI PRES THEN BLDS OVER NEW ENGLAND
TUE...RIDGING OVER CNTRL VA. RESULTANT N-NE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO
NEAR SCA CONDITIONS MON NGT-TUE AS SEAS BLD TO 4-6 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>633-635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...SAM/LSA
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG/LSA







000
FXUS61 KRNK 281459
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
959 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY REACHING THE
COAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH SLIPS OFF TO OUR
SOUTHEAST DURING THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS....FOLLOWED BY SOMEWHAT COLDER WEATHER BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM EST FRIDAY...

SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY AS OF LATE MORNING WITH NOTHING
MORE THAN SCATTERED FLURRIES BEING REPORTED IN THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS AT THIS TIME. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION HAS CEASED AND WINDS WILL BE RELAXING BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND BECOMING MORE WESTERLY...HENCE LESS FAVORABLE FOR
UPSLOPE. STILL A COLD DAY ON TAP FOR SHOPPERS WITH HIGHS UPPER 20S
NW TO LOW 40S SE...ABOUT 15F BELOW LATE NOVEMBER NORMALS.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
AS OF 215 AM EST FRIDAY...

SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING REACHING
COASTAL SECTIONS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING RETURN FLOW BACK TO
THE REGION WITH STEADY 85H WARMING UNDER A WEAK WAVE PASSING WELL
TO THE NORTH BY MORNING. HOWEVER APPEARS LITTLE MIXING OF WARMER
AIR ALOFT TO THE SURFACE WILL BE REALIZED EXCEPT UP ON THE RIDGES
SO ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IN STORE. INFILTRATION OF PASSING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS UNDER THE DISTURBANCE TO THE NORTH...LIKELY TO OCCUR AS
MOISTURE ALOFT SPILLS EAST/SE WITHIN THE WNW FLOW ALOFT SO OVERALL
CLEAR SW...TO MAINLY PC ELSW WITH MORE CLOUDINESS OVER THE NORTH.
THIS MAY TEND TO HOLD TEMPS UP SOME BUT STILL APPEARS LOWS MOSTLY
20S EXCEPT PERHAPS STEADY OR RISING INTO THE 30S RIDGETOPS LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 210 AM EST FRIDAY...

FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...AND SOUTHWEST FLOW...WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOSER TO
THE SURFACE. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF MODERATING TEMPERATURES
AND NO PRECIPITATION FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION. THE ONE
AREA WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE THE
PORTION OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64 WEST OF COVINGTON. THIS REGION WILL BE IN
CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY THAT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY SKIRT THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY...AND EVEN MORE SO MONDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL DIP SOUTHEAST TROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND THEN
INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FOR TWO REASONS. FIRST WILL BE
THE SHOWERY PRECIPITATION CONCURRENT TO THE FRONT. THE SECOND REASON
WILL BE A BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT TO A
SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THIS WILL PROMPT UPSLOPE
STRATOFORM PATCHES OR AREAS OF RAIN ALONG AND EAST OF THE CREST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE ON MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE TO
OR MIX WITH SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 256 PM EST THURSDAY...

APPROACHING COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH ON MONDAY. BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN DOWNSLOPE EAST OF THE RIDGE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN AGGRESSIVELY WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD
ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN TO OUR TEMPS. CHANCE
POPS STILL WARRANTED THROUGH MIDWEEK DUE TO POSSIBLE UPSLOPE IN
E/SELY FLOW. NEXT APPROACHING LOW IS A FAIRLY SHALLOW AMPLITUDE
WAVE AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE HIGH TO DRIFT TO OUR EAST AND
LINGER A BIT...WITH RETURN FLOW WARMING US BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS
FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 620 AM EST FRIDAY...

UPSLOPE LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH VARYING CIGS RANGING FROM MVFR AT
KBLF/KLWB TO MAINLY VFR BASES AT KBCB/KROA AND CLEAR OUT EAST. A
FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL PERSIST A WHILE LONGER AS
WELL MAINLY IN THE KBLF-KLWB-KBCB CORRIDOR BUT SHOULD BE LIGHT
ENOUGH NOT TO RESTRICT VISIBILITY. OTRW EXPECTING MOISTURE TO
GRADUALLY ERODE THIS MORNING WITH LOCATIONS IN SE WEST VA
IMPROVING TO VFR BY MIDDAY WITH CLEARING ESLW OUT TO THE BLUE
RIDGE. NW WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AT TIMES THIS MORNING WITH
GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS POSSIBLE BEFORE SPEEDS DIMINISH TO BELOW 10 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON. COMBO OF WARM ADVECTION ALOFT AND A WEAK
DISTURBANCE PASSING TO THE NORTH LIKELY TO SPILL SOME MID CLOUDS
WITH BASES ABOVE 8K FT INTO THE REGION BY AFTERNOON...WITH MORE
BKN CIGS POSSIBLE ESPCLY ALONG THE KLWB-KLYH CORRIDOR THIS
EVENING.

OTRW EXPECTING WIDESPREAD VFR OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER
LIGHT WINDS THAT WILL BACK MORE SW BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF
SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MAY BRING MVFR CIGS TO AREAS
FROM KBCB WESTWARD. THIS COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE REGION MON-
TUE WITH A CHANCE OF -SHRA AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG THE FRONT
FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL EASTERLY FLOW...THUS
ASSOCIATED MVFR CIGS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WAS MALFUNCTIONING
AGAIN. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER BUT THE REPAIR MAY NOT BE UNTIL
MONDAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLYH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STAFF WHEN THE
CONTROL TOWER IS OPEN...OTHERWISE THE VISIBILITY WILL BE MISSING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/MBS
NEAR TERM...JH/PC
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...JH/PC/RAB
EQUIPMENT...AMS



000
FXUS61 KRNK 281459
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
959 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY REACHING THE
COAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH SLIPS OFF TO OUR
SOUTHEAST DURING THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS....FOLLOWED BY SOMEWHAT COLDER WEATHER BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM EST FRIDAY...

SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY AS OF LATE MORNING WITH NOTHING
MORE THAN SCATTERED FLURRIES BEING REPORTED IN THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS AT THIS TIME. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION HAS CEASED AND WINDS WILL BE RELAXING BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND BECOMING MORE WESTERLY...HENCE LESS FAVORABLE FOR
UPSLOPE. STILL A COLD DAY ON TAP FOR SHOPPERS WITH HIGHS UPPER 20S
NW TO LOW 40S SE...ABOUT 15F BELOW LATE NOVEMBER NORMALS.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
AS OF 215 AM EST FRIDAY...

SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING REACHING
COASTAL SECTIONS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING RETURN FLOW BACK TO
THE REGION WITH STEADY 85H WARMING UNDER A WEAK WAVE PASSING WELL
TO THE NORTH BY MORNING. HOWEVER APPEARS LITTLE MIXING OF WARMER
AIR ALOFT TO THE SURFACE WILL BE REALIZED EXCEPT UP ON THE RIDGES
SO ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IN STORE. INFILTRATION OF PASSING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS UNDER THE DISTURBANCE TO THE NORTH...LIKELY TO OCCUR AS
MOISTURE ALOFT SPILLS EAST/SE WITHIN THE WNW FLOW ALOFT SO OVERALL
CLEAR SW...TO MAINLY PC ELSW WITH MORE CLOUDINESS OVER THE NORTH.
THIS MAY TEND TO HOLD TEMPS UP SOME BUT STILL APPEARS LOWS MOSTLY
20S EXCEPT PERHAPS STEADY OR RISING INTO THE 30S RIDGETOPS LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 210 AM EST FRIDAY...

FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...AND SOUTHWEST FLOW...WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOSER TO
THE SURFACE. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF MODERATING TEMPERATURES
AND NO PRECIPITATION FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION. THE ONE
AREA WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE THE
PORTION OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64 WEST OF COVINGTON. THIS REGION WILL BE IN
CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY THAT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY SKIRT THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY...AND EVEN MORE SO MONDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL DIP SOUTHEAST TROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND THEN
INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FOR TWO REASONS. FIRST WILL BE
THE SHOWERY PRECIPITATION CONCURRENT TO THE FRONT. THE SECOND REASON
WILL BE A BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT TO A
SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THIS WILL PROMPT UPSLOPE
STRATOFORM PATCHES OR AREAS OF RAIN ALONG AND EAST OF THE CREST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE ON MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE TO
OR MIX WITH SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 256 PM EST THURSDAY...

APPROACHING COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH ON MONDAY. BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN DOWNSLOPE EAST OF THE RIDGE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN AGGRESSIVELY WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD
ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN TO OUR TEMPS. CHANCE
POPS STILL WARRANTED THROUGH MIDWEEK DUE TO POSSIBLE UPSLOPE IN
E/SELY FLOW. NEXT APPROACHING LOW IS A FAIRLY SHALLOW AMPLITUDE
WAVE AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE HIGH TO DRIFT TO OUR EAST AND
LINGER A BIT...WITH RETURN FLOW WARMING US BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS
FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 620 AM EST FRIDAY...

UPSLOPE LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH VARYING CIGS RANGING FROM MVFR AT
KBLF/KLWB TO MAINLY VFR BASES AT KBCB/KROA AND CLEAR OUT EAST. A
FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL PERSIST A WHILE LONGER AS
WELL MAINLY IN THE KBLF-KLWB-KBCB CORRIDOR BUT SHOULD BE LIGHT
ENOUGH NOT TO RESTRICT VISIBILITY. OTRW EXPECTING MOISTURE TO
GRADUALLY ERODE THIS MORNING WITH LOCATIONS IN SE WEST VA
IMPROVING TO VFR BY MIDDAY WITH CLEARING ESLW OUT TO THE BLUE
RIDGE. NW WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AT TIMES THIS MORNING WITH
GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS POSSIBLE BEFORE SPEEDS DIMINISH TO BELOW 10 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON. COMBO OF WARM ADVECTION ALOFT AND A WEAK
DISTURBANCE PASSING TO THE NORTH LIKELY TO SPILL SOME MID CLOUDS
WITH BASES ABOVE 8K FT INTO THE REGION BY AFTERNOON...WITH MORE
BKN CIGS POSSIBLE ESPCLY ALONG THE KLWB-KLYH CORRIDOR THIS
EVENING.

OTRW EXPECTING WIDESPREAD VFR OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER
LIGHT WINDS THAT WILL BACK MORE SW BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF
SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MAY BRING MVFR CIGS TO AREAS
FROM KBCB WESTWARD. THIS COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE REGION MON-
TUE WITH A CHANCE OF -SHRA AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG THE FRONT
FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL EASTERLY FLOW...THUS
ASSOCIATED MVFR CIGS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WAS MALFUNCTIONING
AGAIN. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER BUT THE REPAIR MAY NOT BE UNTIL
MONDAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLYH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STAFF WHEN THE
CONTROL TOWER IS OPEN...OTHERWISE THE VISIBILITY WILL BE MISSING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/MBS
NEAR TERM...JH/PC
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...JH/PC/RAB
EQUIPMENT...AMS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 281438
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
938 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY...THEN WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE
NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN FOLLOW ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. A FEW FLURRIES AND SNOW
SHOWERS ARE STILL OCCURRING DUE TO THE COLD ADVECTION FROM THE
NORTHWEST FLOW. HOWEVER...ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL LIKELY BE
CONFINED TO LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WHERE
AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ADD TO THE
COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOR THESE AREAS.

ANY SHOW SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY END THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...IT WILL REMAIN QUITE CHILLY
WITH MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE 20S ACROSS THE MTNS...TO THE MID 30S
NEAR THE MD/PA BORDER...TO THE LOW 40S IN SOUTHERN MD. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT LEADING TO DRY AND CALM CONDITIONS.
FCST MIN TEMPS WITH BE IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE IN W/NW MID-LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO STAY FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO
KEEP PRECIP UP IN PA SATURDAY MORNING. SREFS SUPPORTS THIS IDEA AND
THUS HAVE A DRY FORECAST. 00Z GFS TRIES TO SPREAD A LITTLE QPF SOUTH
OF THE MASON DIXON LINE /IT WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW/ SO BEARS
WATCHING BUT FEEL THAT QPF IS JUST A TAD TOO FAR SOUTH FROM THE GFS.

WITH SURFACE HIGH OFFSHORE...WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WARM FRONT LOOKS TO LIFT TO THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF ITS PASSAGE MAXIMA LIKELY ARE
ABLE TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE BUT CLOUDS
ARE LIKELY TO BE STUBBORN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA AND THERE WILL
ALSO BE A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ON MONDAY...LIKELY A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER OVER SUNDAY/S MAXIMA. THERE WILL BE A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
IN THE MORNING...MOVING THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MOISTURE IS NOT IMPRESSIVE...NEVERTHELESS THERE WILL BE LOW POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR RAIN SHOWERS MOST ESPECIALLY OUT WEST TOWARD THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.

FRONT WINDS UP IN THE CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE NORTH. COLDER AIR MOVES IN FOR TUESDAY. FRONT MAY ALSO
BE QUICK TO RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TODAY. NW WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY BY SAT MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY THEN MOVES OFFSHORE FOR THE
WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT WX IS EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATER MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE WATERS
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BECOME
SW-S BY SAT MORNING

SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY GET CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA UP THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO ISSUE SCA ATTM.
SEEMS MORE LIKELY SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE NIGHT. COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH LATE MONDAY...POSSIBLY A NORTHERLY SURGE MAY PROMOTE SCA
CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ501.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ503.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ501-503-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP/HAS
NEAR TERM...BJL/HAS
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...BPP
AVIATION...BJL/BPP/HAS
MARINE...BJL/BPP/HAS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 281438
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
938 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY...THEN WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE
NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN FOLLOW ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. A FEW FLURRIES AND SNOW
SHOWERS ARE STILL OCCURRING DUE TO THE COLD ADVECTION FROM THE
NORTHWEST FLOW. HOWEVER...ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL LIKELY BE
CONFINED TO LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WHERE
AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ADD TO THE
COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOR THESE AREAS.

ANY SHOW SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY END THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...IT WILL REMAIN QUITE CHILLY
WITH MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE 20S ACROSS THE MTNS...TO THE MID 30S
NEAR THE MD/PA BORDER...TO THE LOW 40S IN SOUTHERN MD. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT LEADING TO DRY AND CALM CONDITIONS.
FCST MIN TEMPS WITH BE IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE IN W/NW MID-LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO STAY FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO
KEEP PRECIP UP IN PA SATURDAY MORNING. SREFS SUPPORTS THIS IDEA AND
THUS HAVE A DRY FORECAST. 00Z GFS TRIES TO SPREAD A LITTLE QPF SOUTH
OF THE MASON DIXON LINE /IT WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW/ SO BEARS
WATCHING BUT FEEL THAT QPF IS JUST A TAD TOO FAR SOUTH FROM THE GFS.

WITH SURFACE HIGH OFFSHORE...WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WARM FRONT LOOKS TO LIFT TO THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF ITS PASSAGE MAXIMA LIKELY ARE
ABLE TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE BUT CLOUDS
ARE LIKELY TO BE STUBBORN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA AND THERE WILL
ALSO BE A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ON MONDAY...LIKELY A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER OVER SUNDAY/S MAXIMA. THERE WILL BE A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
IN THE MORNING...MOVING THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MOISTURE IS NOT IMPRESSIVE...NEVERTHELESS THERE WILL BE LOW POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR RAIN SHOWERS MOST ESPECIALLY OUT WEST TOWARD THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.

FRONT WINDS UP IN THE CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE NORTH. COLDER AIR MOVES IN FOR TUESDAY. FRONT MAY ALSO
BE QUICK TO RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TODAY. NW WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY BY SAT MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY THEN MOVES OFFSHORE FOR THE
WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT WX IS EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATER MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE WATERS
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BECOME
SW-S BY SAT MORNING

SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY GET CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA UP THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO ISSUE SCA ATTM.
SEEMS MORE LIKELY SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE NIGHT. COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH LATE MONDAY...POSSIBLY A NORTHERLY SURGE MAY PROMOTE SCA
CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ501.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ503.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ501-503-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP/HAS
NEAR TERM...BJL/HAS
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...BPP
AVIATION...BJL/BPP/HAS
MARINE...BJL/BPP/HAS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 281438
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
938 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY...THEN WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE
NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN FOLLOW ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. A FEW FLURRIES AND SNOW
SHOWERS ARE STILL OCCURRING DUE TO THE COLD ADVECTION FROM THE
NORTHWEST FLOW. HOWEVER...ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL LIKELY BE
CONFINED TO LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WHERE
AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ADD TO THE
COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOR THESE AREAS.

ANY SHOW SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY END THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...IT WILL REMAIN QUITE CHILLY
WITH MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE 20S ACROSS THE MTNS...TO THE MID 30S
NEAR THE MD/PA BORDER...TO THE LOW 40S IN SOUTHERN MD. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT LEADING TO DRY AND CALM CONDITIONS.
FCST MIN TEMPS WITH BE IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE IN W/NW MID-LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO STAY FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO
KEEP PRECIP UP IN PA SATURDAY MORNING. SREFS SUPPORTS THIS IDEA AND
THUS HAVE A DRY FORECAST. 00Z GFS TRIES TO SPREAD A LITTLE QPF SOUTH
OF THE MASON DIXON LINE /IT WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW/ SO BEARS
WATCHING BUT FEEL THAT QPF IS JUST A TAD TOO FAR SOUTH FROM THE GFS.

WITH SURFACE HIGH OFFSHORE...WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WARM FRONT LOOKS TO LIFT TO THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF ITS PASSAGE MAXIMA LIKELY ARE
ABLE TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE BUT CLOUDS
ARE LIKELY TO BE STUBBORN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA AND THERE WILL
ALSO BE A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ON MONDAY...LIKELY A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER OVER SUNDAY/S MAXIMA. THERE WILL BE A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
IN THE MORNING...MOVING THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MOISTURE IS NOT IMPRESSIVE...NEVERTHELESS THERE WILL BE LOW POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR RAIN SHOWERS MOST ESPECIALLY OUT WEST TOWARD THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.

FRONT WINDS UP IN THE CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE NORTH. COLDER AIR MOVES IN FOR TUESDAY. FRONT MAY ALSO
BE QUICK TO RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TODAY. NW WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY BY SAT MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY THEN MOVES OFFSHORE FOR THE
WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT WX IS EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATER MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE WATERS
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BECOME
SW-S BY SAT MORNING

SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY GET CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA UP THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO ISSUE SCA ATTM.
SEEMS MORE LIKELY SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE NIGHT. COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH LATE MONDAY...POSSIBLY A NORTHERLY SURGE MAY PROMOTE SCA
CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ501.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ503.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ501-503-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP/HAS
NEAR TERM...BJL/HAS
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...BPP
AVIATION...BJL/BPP/HAS
MARINE...BJL/BPP/HAS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 281438
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
938 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY...THEN WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE
NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN FOLLOW ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. A FEW FLURRIES AND SNOW
SHOWERS ARE STILL OCCURRING DUE TO THE COLD ADVECTION FROM THE
NORTHWEST FLOW. HOWEVER...ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL LIKELY BE
CONFINED TO LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WHERE
AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ADD TO THE
COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOR THESE AREAS.

ANY SHOW SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY END THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...IT WILL REMAIN QUITE CHILLY
WITH MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE 20S ACROSS THE MTNS...TO THE MID 30S
NEAR THE MD/PA BORDER...TO THE LOW 40S IN SOUTHERN MD. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT LEADING TO DRY AND CALM CONDITIONS.
FCST MIN TEMPS WITH BE IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE IN W/NW MID-LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO STAY FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO
KEEP PRECIP UP IN PA SATURDAY MORNING. SREFS SUPPORTS THIS IDEA AND
THUS HAVE A DRY FORECAST. 00Z GFS TRIES TO SPREAD A LITTLE QPF SOUTH
OF THE MASON DIXON LINE /IT WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW/ SO BEARS
WATCHING BUT FEEL THAT QPF IS JUST A TAD TOO FAR SOUTH FROM THE GFS.

WITH SURFACE HIGH OFFSHORE...WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WARM FRONT LOOKS TO LIFT TO THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF ITS PASSAGE MAXIMA LIKELY ARE
ABLE TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE BUT CLOUDS
ARE LIKELY TO BE STUBBORN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA AND THERE WILL
ALSO BE A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ON MONDAY...LIKELY A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER OVER SUNDAY/S MAXIMA. THERE WILL BE A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
IN THE MORNING...MOVING THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MOISTURE IS NOT IMPRESSIVE...NEVERTHELESS THERE WILL BE LOW POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR RAIN SHOWERS MOST ESPECIALLY OUT WEST TOWARD THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.

FRONT WINDS UP IN THE CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE NORTH. COLDER AIR MOVES IN FOR TUESDAY. FRONT MAY ALSO
BE QUICK TO RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TODAY. NW WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY BY SAT MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY THEN MOVES OFFSHORE FOR THE
WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT WX IS EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATER MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE WATERS
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BECOME
SW-S BY SAT MORNING

SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY GET CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA UP THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO ISSUE SCA ATTM.
SEEMS MORE LIKELY SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE NIGHT. COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH LATE MONDAY...POSSIBLY A NORTHERLY SURGE MAY PROMOTE SCA
CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ501.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ503.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ501-503-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP/HAS
NEAR TERM...BJL/HAS
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...BPP
AVIATION...BJL/BPP/HAS
MARINE...BJL/BPP/HAS








000
FXUS61 KRNK 281151
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
651 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY REACHING THE
COAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH SLIPS OFF TO OUR
SOUTHEAST DURING THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS....FOLLOWED BY SOMEWHAT COLDER WEATHER BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 215 AM EST FRIDAY...

BANDED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN UPSLOPE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING SUPPORTED BY EARLIER LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND
STRONG NW FLOW WITHIN THE INVERSION LAYER PER EVENING RNK SOUNDING. AS
THE UPPER TROUGH FINALLY LIFTS OUT THIS MORNING SHOULD SEE THE
85H COLD ADVECTION AND NW TRAJECTORY MAX OUT AROUND 12Z FOLLOWED
BY A WEAKER WESTERLY COMPONENT UNDER WARMING ALOFT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS IN COMBO WITH GRADUAL DRYING FROM ALOFT SHOULD
FINALLY BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO AN END BUT LIKELY NOT UNTIL EARLY
AFTERNOON OVER THE FAR NW WHERE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE LAST FAINT AXIS
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING ON. MAY SEE ANOTHER INCH OR TWO
ESPCLY IN BANDS FROM AROUND BLF TO WESTERN GREENBRIER CTY BUT AT
THIS POINT WILL STICK WITH A SPS RATHER THAN HOIST A SHORT
ADVISORY GIVEN MORE ISOLATED NATURE TO COVERAGE WITH TIME TOWARD
DAWN. NW FLOW ALSO REMAINS STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH FLURRIES OUT TO
THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS WELL SO INCLUDED MENTION
ALONG WITH MORE CLOUDS EARLY ON.

HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
SHOULD BRING MORE CLEARING TO THE MOUNTAINS WITH MAINLY SUNNY
SKIES EAST OUTSIDE OF SOME LATE DAY CI/AC. NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS WHILE ARCTIC AIR
AND MORE CLOUDS EARLY SUPPORTS LOWERING HIGHS TO ONLY AROUND 30
SE WVA AND LOW/MID 30S BLUE RIDGE. APPEARS ONLY THE FAR SOUTH/EAST
WILL TOP INTO THE LOW/MID 40S GIVEN MORE INSOLATION AND WEAK DOWNSLOPE.

SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING REACHING
COASTAL SECTIONS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING RETURN FLOW BACK TO
THE REGION WITH STEADY 85H WARMING UNDER A WEAK WAVE PASSING WELL
TO THE NORTH BY MORNING. HOWEVER APPEARS LITTLE MIXING OF WARMER
AIR ALOFT TO THE SURFACE WILL BE REALIZED EXCEPT UP ON THE RIDGES
SO ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IN STORE. INFILTRATION OF PASSING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS UNDER THE DISTURBANCE TO THE NORTH...LIKELY TO OCCUR AS
MOISTURE ALOFT SPILLS EAST/SE WITHIN THE WNW FLOW ALOFT SO OVERALL
CLEAR SW...TO MAINLY PC ELSW WITH MORE CLOUDINESS OVER THE NORTH.
THIS MAY TEND TO HOLD TEMPS UP SOME BUT STILL APPEARS LOWS MOSTLY
20S EXCEPT PERHAPS STEADY OR RISING INTO THE 30S RIDGETOPS LATE.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 210 AM EST FRIDAY...

FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...AND SOUTHWEST FLOW...WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOSER TO
THE SURFACE. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF MODERATING TEMPERATURES
AND NO PRECIPITATION FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION. THE ONE
AREA WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE THE
PORTION OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64 WEST OF COVINGTON. THIS REGION WILL BE IN
CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY THAT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY SKIRT THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY...AND EVEN MORE SO MONDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL DIP SOUTHEAST TROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND THEN
INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FOR TWO REASONS. FIRST WILL BE
THE SHOWERY PRECIPITATION CONCURRENT TO THE FRONT. THE SECOND REASON
WILL BE A BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT TO A
SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THIS WILL PROMPT UPSLOPE
STRATOFORM PATCHES OR AREAS OF RAIN ALONG AND EAST OF THE CREST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE ON MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE TO
OR MIX WITH SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 256 PM EST THURSDAY...

APPROACHING COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH ON MONDAY. BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN DOWNSLOPE EAST OF THE RIDGE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN AGGRESSIVELY WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD
ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN TO OUR TEMPS. CHANCE
POPS STILL WARRANTED THROUGH MIDWEEK DUE TO POSSIBLE UPSLOPE IN
E/SELY FLOW. NEXT APPROACHING LOW IS A FAIRLY SHALLOW AMPLITUDE
WAVE AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE HIGH TO DRIFT TO OUR EAST AND
LINGER A BIT...WITH RETURN FLOW WARMING US BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS
FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 620 AM EST FRIDAY...

UPSLOPE LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH VARYING CIGS RANGING FROM MVFR AT
KBLF/KLWB TO MAINLY VFR BASES AT KBCB/KROA AND CLEAR OUT EAST. A
FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL PERSIST A WHILE LONGER AS
WELL MAINLY IN THE KBLF-KLWB-KBCB CORRIDOR BUT SHOULD BE LIGHT
ENOUGH NOT TO RESTRICT VISIBILITY. OTRW EXPECTING MOISTURE TO
GRADUALLY ERODE THIS MORNING WITH LOCATIONS IN SE WEST VA
IMPROVING TO VFR BY MIDDAY WITH CLEARING ESLW OUT TO THE BLUE
RIDGE. NW WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AT TIMES THIS MORNING WITH
GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS POSSIBLE BEFORE SPEEDS DIMINISH TO BELOW 10 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON. COMBO OF WARM ADVECTION ALOFT AND A WEAK
DISTURBANCE PASSING TO THE NORTH LIKELY TO SPILL SOME MID CLOUDS
WITH BASES ABOVE 8K FT INTO THE REGION BY AFTERNOON...WITH MORE
BKN CIGS POSSIBLE ESPCLY ALONG THE KLWB-KLYH CORRIDOR THIS
EVENING.

OTRW EXPECTING WIDESPREAD VFR OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER
LIGHT WINDS THAT WILL BACK MORE SW BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF
SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MAY BRING MVFR CIGS TO AREAS
FROM KBCB WESTWARD. THIS COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE REGION MON-
TUE WITH A CHANCE OF -SHRA AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG THE FRONT
FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL EASTERLY FLOW...THUS
ASSOCIATED MVFR CIGS.
&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WAS MALFUNCTIONING
AGAIN. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER BUT THE REPAIR MAY NOT BE UNTIL
MONDAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLYH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STAFF WHEN THE
CONTROL TOWER IS OPEN...OTHERWISE THE VISIBILITY WILL BE MISSING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/MBS
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...JH/PC/RAB
EQUIPMENT...AMS



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280910
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
410 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TODAY. THE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE TN VALLEY WILL BUILD EASTWARD
OVER THE LOCAL AREA BY THE END OF THE DAY. SUNSHINE WILL BE
PLENTIFUL TODAY WITH DRY NW FLOW ALOFT. DESPITE THE SUNSHINE...MAX
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS 40-45. NORMAL
HIGHS ARE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD TONIGHT BUT WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS DUE TO
FLATTENING UPR FLOW. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WITH LOW
LEVEL-FLOW BECOMING MORE S-SW...MODERATING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE WEEKEND. HIGHS SAT FROM THE UPR 40S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 50S
SOUTH. WARMING BACK ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 50S
TO AROUND 60 NORTH TO THE MID 60S SOUTH. SKIES TURN OUT PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY ON SAT...THEN MOSTLY SUNNY FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WILL SEND A COUPLE OF FAST MOVING COLD
FRONTS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
RIDGING ALONG THE LATITUDE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA WILL
KEEP HEIGHTS HIGH ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE SOUTHWARD PENETRATION OF
ARCTIC AIR.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MID LEVEL MOISTURE FOLLOWING THE
FRONT MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST WITH A CLEARING SKY
FROM THE WEST BUT SLGT CHC POPS CONTINUING TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG
TERM. HIGHS IN THE UPR 50S NE TO MID 60S SW MONDAY COOL TO THE MID
40S NW TO MID 50S SE TUESDAY. HIGHS IN THE 50S ARE FORECAST
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOWS IN THE 40S MONDAY MORNING LOWER TO THE
UPR 30S TO MID 40S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HI PRES WILL BLD OVR THE AREA DURING TODAY...RESULTING IN VFR
CONDITIONS PERSISTING AT THE TAF SITES. EXPECT JUST HI CLOUDS AND
MAYBE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS EVENG THRU SAT...AS A WEAK WARM
FRONT ALOFT LIFTS INTO AND ACRS THE AREA. NW WINDS WILL GUST TO
NEAR 20 KT LATE THIS MORNING...AS CAA CONTINUES ACRS THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SSW WINDS ARE EXPECTED SAT
NGT INTO MON...AS HI PRES WILL BE OFF THE MID ATLC/SE CST.

&&

.MARINE...
HI PRES WILL BLD TWD THE AREA FM THE W TODAY INTO THIS EVENG...THEN
SLIDES OUT TO SEA FOR SAT INTO MON. STRONG CAA EXPECTED THIS MORNG
INTO THIS AFTN...WITH NW WINDS 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO OR ARND 30
KT OVR THE WTRS. SEAS WILL BLD TO 4-6 FT WITH WAVES 3-4 FT. SCA
HEADLINES REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNG FOR THE
RIVERS...UNTIL 1 PM THIS AFTN FOR THE CHES BAY AND CURRITUCK
SND...AND THRU THIS AFTN FOR THE CSTL WTRS. CALMER CONDITIONS TNGT
INTO SAT MORNG...AS THE HI BLDS RIGHT OVRHD. SW OR S WINDS 10 TO 20
KT EXPECTED SAT THRU SUN NGT...WITH WAVES 1 TO 3 FT...AND SEAS 2 TO
4 FT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WTRS MON AFTN INTO MON NGT.
HI PRES THEN BLDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TUE...RIDGING OVER CNTRL VA.
RESULTANT N-NE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO NEAR SCA CONDITIONS MON NGT-TUE
AS SEAS BLD TO 4-6 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...SAM/LSA
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG







000
FXUS61 KLWX 280838
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
338 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY...THEN WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE
NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN FOLLOW ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS THIS
MORNING. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE.

SNOW SHOWERS FROM A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
MID-ATLANTIC THIS MORNING. SOME IF NOT ALL OF THEM ARE LAKE INDUCED
FROM GREAT LAKES. LIGHT-MODERATE SNOW HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN THIS
ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN PA. A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH THESE
SNOW SHOWERS AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS THE MID-ATLANTIC BY DAWN
TAKING THE LIFT NEEDED IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE FOR HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND ACROSS NRN MD THROUGH DAWN. FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST SUBURBS OF BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON DC.

FURTHER WEST...NORTHWEST FLOW AGAINST THE WESTERN SLOPES WITH A
MOISTURE FETCH FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND APPROACHING SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CAUSE MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10AM FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT AND 2-5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED BY MID MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IS APPROACHING THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND SUBSIDENCE WILL CUT OFF SNOW DEVELOPMENT BY LATE
MORNING. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY. FCST
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S ACROSS THE MTNS TO THE MID 30S
NEAR THE MD/PA BORDER TO THE LOW 40S IN SOUTHERN MD. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT LEADING TO DRY AND CALM CONDITIONS. FCST
MIN TEMPS WITH BE IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE IN W/NW MID-LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO STAY FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO
KEEP PRECIP UP IN PA SATURDAY MORNING. SREFS SUPPORTS THIS IDEA AND
THUS HAVE A DRY FORECAST. 00Z GFS TRIES TO SPREAD A LITTLE QPF SOUTH
OF THE MASON DIXON LINE /IT WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW/ SO BEARS
WATCHING BUT FEEL THAT QPF IS JUST A TAD TOO FAR SOUTH FROM THE GFS.

WITH SURFACE HIGH OFFSHORE...WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WARM FRONT LOOKS TO LIFT TO THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF ITS PASSAGE MAXIMA LIKELY ARE
ABLE TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE BUT CLOUDS
ARE LIKELY TO BE STUBBORN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA AND THERE WILL
ALSO BE A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ON MONDAY...LIKELY A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER OVER SUNDAY/S MAXIMA. THERE WILL BE A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
IN THE MORNING...MOVING THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MOISTURE IS NOT IMPRESSIVE...NEVERTHELESS THERE WILL BE LOW POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR RAIN SHOWERS MOST ESPECIALLY OUT WEST TOWARD THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.

FRONT WINDS UP IN THE CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE NORTH. COLDER AIR MOVES IN FOR TUESDAY. FRONT MAY ALSO
BE QUICK TO RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TODAY. NW WINDS 8-12KTS GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY BY SAT MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY THEN MOVES OFFSHORE FOR THE
WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT WX IS EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATER MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE REGION TODAY. NW WINDS 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
25KTS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS PRESSURE SURGE MOVES ACROSS THE
WATERS. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY BUT STAY ABOVE SCA
CONDITIONS AND THEREFORE A SCA IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON..
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BECOME SW-S BY
SAT MORNING

SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY GET CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA UP THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO ISSUE SCA ATTM.
SEEMS MORE LIKELY SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE NIGHT. COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH LATE MONDAY...POSSIBLY A NORTHERLY SURGE MAY PROMOTE SCA
CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MDZ501.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ503.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ501-503-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS/BPP
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...BPP
AVIATION...HAS/BPP
MARINE...HAS/BPP








000
FXUS61 KLWX 280838
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
338 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY...THEN WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE
NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN FOLLOW ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS THIS
MORNING. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE.

SNOW SHOWERS FROM A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
MID-ATLANTIC THIS MORNING. SOME IF NOT ALL OF THEM ARE LAKE INDUCED
FROM GREAT LAKES. LIGHT-MODERATE SNOW HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN THIS
ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN PA. A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH THESE
SNOW SHOWERS AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS THE MID-ATLANTIC BY DAWN
TAKING THE LIFT NEEDED IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE FOR HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND ACROSS NRN MD THROUGH DAWN. FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST SUBURBS OF BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON DC.

FURTHER WEST...NORTHWEST FLOW AGAINST THE WESTERN SLOPES WITH A
MOISTURE FETCH FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND APPROACHING SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CAUSE MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10AM FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT AND 2-5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED BY MID MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IS APPROACHING THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND SUBSIDENCE WILL CUT OFF SNOW DEVELOPMENT BY LATE
MORNING. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY. FCST
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S ACROSS THE MTNS TO THE MID 30S
NEAR THE MD/PA BORDER TO THE LOW 40S IN SOUTHERN MD. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT LEADING TO DRY AND CALM CONDITIONS. FCST
MIN TEMPS WITH BE IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE IN W/NW MID-LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO STAY FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO
KEEP PRECIP UP IN PA SATURDAY MORNING. SREFS SUPPORTS THIS IDEA AND
THUS HAVE A DRY FORECAST. 00Z GFS TRIES TO SPREAD A LITTLE QPF SOUTH
OF THE MASON DIXON LINE /IT WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW/ SO BEARS
WATCHING BUT FEEL THAT QPF IS JUST A TAD TOO FAR SOUTH FROM THE GFS.

WITH SURFACE HIGH OFFSHORE...WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WARM FRONT LOOKS TO LIFT TO THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF ITS PASSAGE MAXIMA LIKELY ARE
ABLE TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE BUT CLOUDS
ARE LIKELY TO BE STUBBORN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA AND THERE WILL
ALSO BE A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ON MONDAY...LIKELY A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER OVER SUNDAY/S MAXIMA. THERE WILL BE A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
IN THE MORNING...MOVING THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MOISTURE IS NOT IMPRESSIVE...NEVERTHELESS THERE WILL BE LOW POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR RAIN SHOWERS MOST ESPECIALLY OUT WEST TOWARD THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.

FRONT WINDS UP IN THE CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE NORTH. COLDER AIR MOVES IN FOR TUESDAY. FRONT MAY ALSO
BE QUICK TO RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TODAY. NW WINDS 8-12KTS GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY BY SAT MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY THEN MOVES OFFSHORE FOR THE
WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT WX IS EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATER MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE REGION TODAY. NW WINDS 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
25KTS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS PRESSURE SURGE MOVES ACROSS THE
WATERS. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY BUT STAY ABOVE SCA
CONDITIONS AND THEREFORE A SCA IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON..
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BECOME SW-S BY
SAT MORNING

SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY GET CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA UP THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO ISSUE SCA ATTM.
SEEMS MORE LIKELY SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE NIGHT. COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH LATE MONDAY...POSSIBLY A NORTHERLY SURGE MAY PROMOTE SCA
CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MDZ501.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ503.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ501-503-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS/BPP
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...BPP
AVIATION...HAS/BPP
MARINE...HAS/BPP








000
FXUS61 KLWX 280838
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
338 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY...THEN WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE
NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN FOLLOW ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS THIS
MORNING. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE.

SNOW SHOWERS FROM A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
MID-ATLANTIC THIS MORNING. SOME IF NOT ALL OF THEM ARE LAKE INDUCED
FROM GREAT LAKES. LIGHT-MODERATE SNOW HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN THIS
ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN PA. A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH THESE
SNOW SHOWERS AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS THE MID-ATLANTIC BY DAWN
TAKING THE LIFT NEEDED IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE FOR HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND ACROSS NRN MD THROUGH DAWN. FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST SUBURBS OF BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON DC.

FURTHER WEST...NORTHWEST FLOW AGAINST THE WESTERN SLOPES WITH A
MOISTURE FETCH FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND APPROACHING SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CAUSE MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10AM FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT AND 2-5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED BY MID MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IS APPROACHING THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND SUBSIDENCE WILL CUT OFF SNOW DEVELOPMENT BY LATE
MORNING. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY. FCST
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S ACROSS THE MTNS TO THE MID 30S
NEAR THE MD/PA BORDER TO THE LOW 40S IN SOUTHERN MD. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT LEADING TO DRY AND CALM CONDITIONS. FCST
MIN TEMPS WITH BE IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE IN W/NW MID-LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO STAY FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO
KEEP PRECIP UP IN PA SATURDAY MORNING. SREFS SUPPORTS THIS IDEA AND
THUS HAVE A DRY FORECAST. 00Z GFS TRIES TO SPREAD A LITTLE QPF SOUTH
OF THE MASON DIXON LINE /IT WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW/ SO BEARS
WATCHING BUT FEEL THAT QPF IS JUST A TAD TOO FAR SOUTH FROM THE GFS.

WITH SURFACE HIGH OFFSHORE...WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WARM FRONT LOOKS TO LIFT TO THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF ITS PASSAGE MAXIMA LIKELY ARE
ABLE TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE BUT CLOUDS
ARE LIKELY TO BE STUBBORN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA AND THERE WILL
ALSO BE A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ON MONDAY...LIKELY A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER OVER SUNDAY/S MAXIMA. THERE WILL BE A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
IN THE MORNING...MOVING THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MOISTURE IS NOT IMPRESSIVE...NEVERTHELESS THERE WILL BE LOW POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR RAIN SHOWERS MOST ESPECIALLY OUT WEST TOWARD THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.

FRONT WINDS UP IN THE CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE NORTH. COLDER AIR MOVES IN FOR TUESDAY. FRONT MAY ALSO
BE QUICK TO RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TODAY. NW WINDS 8-12KTS GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY BY SAT MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY THEN MOVES OFFSHORE FOR THE
WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT WX IS EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATER MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE REGION TODAY. NW WINDS 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
25KTS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS PRESSURE SURGE MOVES ACROSS THE
WATERS. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY BUT STAY ABOVE SCA
CONDITIONS AND THEREFORE A SCA IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON..
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BECOME SW-S BY
SAT MORNING

SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY GET CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA UP THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO ISSUE SCA ATTM.
SEEMS MORE LIKELY SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE NIGHT. COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH LATE MONDAY...POSSIBLY A NORTHERLY SURGE MAY PROMOTE SCA
CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MDZ501.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ503.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ501-503-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS/BPP
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...BPP
AVIATION...HAS/BPP
MARINE...HAS/BPP








000
FXUS61 KLWX 280838
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
338 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY...THEN WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE
NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN FOLLOW ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS THIS
MORNING. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE.

SNOW SHOWERS FROM A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
MID-ATLANTIC THIS MORNING. SOME IF NOT ALL OF THEM ARE LAKE INDUCED
FROM GREAT LAKES. LIGHT-MODERATE SNOW HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN THIS
ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN PA. A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH THESE
SNOW SHOWERS AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS THE MID-ATLANTIC BY DAWN
TAKING THE LIFT NEEDED IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE FOR HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND ACROSS NRN MD THROUGH DAWN. FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST SUBURBS OF BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON DC.

FURTHER WEST...NORTHWEST FLOW AGAINST THE WESTERN SLOPES WITH A
MOISTURE FETCH FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND APPROACHING SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CAUSE MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10AM FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT AND 2-5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED BY MID MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IS APPROACHING THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND SUBSIDENCE WILL CUT OFF SNOW DEVELOPMENT BY LATE
MORNING. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY. FCST
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S ACROSS THE MTNS TO THE MID 30S
NEAR THE MD/PA BORDER TO THE LOW 40S IN SOUTHERN MD. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT LEADING TO DRY AND CALM CONDITIONS. FCST
MIN TEMPS WITH BE IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE IN W/NW MID-LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO STAY FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO
KEEP PRECIP UP IN PA SATURDAY MORNING. SREFS SUPPORTS THIS IDEA AND
THUS HAVE A DRY FORECAST. 00Z GFS TRIES TO SPREAD A LITTLE QPF SOUTH
OF THE MASON DIXON LINE /IT WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW/ SO BEARS
WATCHING BUT FEEL THAT QPF IS JUST A TAD TOO FAR SOUTH FROM THE GFS.

WITH SURFACE HIGH OFFSHORE...WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WARM FRONT LOOKS TO LIFT TO THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF ITS PASSAGE MAXIMA LIKELY ARE
ABLE TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE BUT CLOUDS
ARE LIKELY TO BE STUBBORN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA AND THERE WILL
ALSO BE A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ON MONDAY...LIKELY A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER OVER SUNDAY/S MAXIMA. THERE WILL BE A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
IN THE MORNING...MOVING THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MOISTURE IS NOT IMPRESSIVE...NEVERTHELESS THERE WILL BE LOW POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR RAIN SHOWERS MOST ESPECIALLY OUT WEST TOWARD THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.

FRONT WINDS UP IN THE CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE NORTH. COLDER AIR MOVES IN FOR TUESDAY. FRONT MAY ALSO
BE QUICK TO RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TODAY. NW WINDS 8-12KTS GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY BY SAT MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY THEN MOVES OFFSHORE FOR THE
WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT WX IS EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATER MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE REGION TODAY. NW WINDS 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
25KTS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS PRESSURE SURGE MOVES ACROSS THE
WATERS. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY BUT STAY ABOVE SCA
CONDITIONS AND THEREFORE A SCA IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON..
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BECOME SW-S BY
SAT MORNING

SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY GET CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA UP THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO ISSUE SCA ATTM.
SEEMS MORE LIKELY SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE NIGHT. COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH LATE MONDAY...POSSIBLY A NORTHERLY SURGE MAY PROMOTE SCA
CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MDZ501.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ503.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ501-503-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS/BPP
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...BPP
AVIATION...HAS/BPP
MARINE...HAS/BPP








000
FXUS61 KRNK 280803
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
303 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY REACHING THE
COAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH SLIPS OFF TO OUR
SOUTHEAST DURING THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS....FOLLOWED BY SOMEWHAT COLDER WEATHER BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 215 AM EST FRIDAY...

BANDED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN UPSLOPE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING SUPPORTED BY EARLIER LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND
STRONG NW FLOW WITHIN THE INVERSION LAYER PER EVENING RNK SOUNDING. AS
THE UPPER TROUGH FINALLY LIFTS OUT THIS MORNING SHOULD SEE THE
85H COLD ADVECTION AND NW TRAJECTORY MAX OUT AROUND 12Z FOLLOWED
BY A WEAKER WESTERLY COMPONENT UNDER WARMING ALOFT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS IN COMBO WITH GRADUAL DRYING FROM ALOFT SHOULD
FINALLY BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO AN END BUT LIKELY NOT UNTIL EARLY
AFTERNOON OVER THE FAR NW WHERE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE LAST FAINT AXIS
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING ON. MAY SEE ANOTHER INCH OR TWO
ESPCLY IN BANDS FROM AROUND BLF TO WESTERN GREENBRIER CTY BUT AT
THIS POINT WILL STICK WITH A SPS RATHER THAN HOIST A SHORT
ADVISORY GIVEN MORE ISOLATED NATURE TO COVERAGE WITH TIME TOWARD
DAWN. NW FLOW ALSO REMAINS STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH FLURRIES OUT TO
THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS WELL SO INCLUDED MENTION
ALONG WITH MORE CLOUDS EARLY ON.

HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
SHOULD BRING MORE CLEARING TO THE MOUNTAINS WITH MAINLY SUNNY
SKIES EAST OUTSIDE OF SOME LATE DAY CI/AC. NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS WHILE ARCTIC AIR
AND MORE CLOUDS EARLY SUPPORTS LOWERING HIGHS TO ONLY AROUND 30
SE WVA AND LOW/MID 30S BLUE RIDGE. APPEARS ONLY THE FAR SOUTH/EAST
WILL TOP INTO THE LOW/MID 40S GIVEN MORE INSOLATION AND WEAK DOWNSLOPE.

SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING REACHING
COASTAL SECTIONS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING RETURN FLOW BACK TO
THE REGION WITH STEADY 85H WARMING UNDER A WEAK WAVE PASSING WELL
TO THE NORTH BY MORNING. HOWEVER APPEARS LITTLE MIXING OF WARMER
AIR ALOFT TO THE SURFACE WILL BE REALIZED EXCEPT UP ON THE RIDGES
SO ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IN STORE. INFILTRATION OF PASSING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS UNDER THE DISTURBANCE TO THE NORTH...LIKELY TO OCCUR AS
MOISTURE ALOFT SPILLS EAST/SE WITHIN THE WNW FLOW ALOFT SO OVERALL
CLEAR SW...TO MAINLY PC ELSW WITH MORE CLOUDINESS OVER THE NORTH.
THIS MAY TEND TO HOLD TEMPS UP SOME BUT STILL APPEARS LOWS MOSTLY
20S EXCEPT PERHAPS STEADY OR RISING INTO THE 30S RIDGETOPS LATE.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 210 AM EST FRIDAY...

FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...AND SOUTHWEST FLOW...WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOSER TO
THE SURFACE. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF MODERATING TEMPERATURES
AND NO PRECIPITATION FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION. THE ONE
AREA WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE THE
PORTION OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64 WEST OF COVINGTON. THIS REGION WILL BE IN
CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY THAT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY SKIRT THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY...AND EVEN MORE SO MONDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL DIP SOUTHEAST TROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND THEN
INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FOR TWO REASONS. FIRST WILL BE
THE SHOWERY PRECIPITATION CONCURRENT TO THE FRONT. THE SECOND REASON
WILL BE A BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT TO A
SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THIS WILL PROMPT UPSLOPE
STRATOFORM PATCHES OR AREAS OF RAIN ALONG AND EAST OF THE CREST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE ON MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE TO
OR MIX WITH SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 256 PM EST THURSDAY...

APPROACHING COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH ON MONDAY. BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN DOWNSLOPE EAST OF THE RIDGE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN AGGRESSIVELY WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD
ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN TO OUR TEMPS. CHANCE
POPS STILL WARRANTED THROUGH MIDWEEK DUE TO POSSIBLE UPSLOPE IN
E/SELY FLOW. NEXT APPROACHING LOW IS A FAIRLY SHALLOW AMPLITUDE
WAVE AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE HIGH TO DRIFT TO OUR EAST AND
LINGER A BIT...WITH RETURN FLOW WARMING US BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS
FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1145 PM EST THURSDAY...

UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION...BUT EMBEDDED
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVES HELPING TO ALLOW NEXT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR TO
SPREAD INTO THE REGION. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF
UPSLOPE...CAA...AND THE SHORT WAVES TRIGGERING PERSISTENT BANDS
OF -SHSN MAINLY WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT WITH A FEW -SHSN
SPILLING OVER TO THE WEST SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH STRONG CAA
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND YET ANOTHER WEAK EMBEDDED UPSTREAM SHORT
WAVE...WOULD EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. JUST SCT-BKN
CLOUDS AT TIMES FOR AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY MVFR WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH MID-MORNING
FRI...AND AT WORST LOW END VFR CIGS EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...INCLUDING ROA/LYH/DAN. -SHSN WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL
BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITY AT TIMES TO IFR CATEGORY...MAINLY LWB
AND BLF. BCB MAY SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS IS ANY OF THE
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS PENETRATE THAT FAR EAST. THE THREAT FOR
REDUCED VISIBILITY WILL DECREASE AFT 10Z AS THE MAIN SHORT WAVE
PASSES EAST OF THE REGION. ELSEWHERE...VSBYS MOSTLY VFR OVERNIGHT
AND FRI. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...POTENTIALLY HANGING IN TOUGH WITH MVFR CIGS AT BLF/LWB
THROUGH 18/19Z...BUT BECOMING SCT TO SKC EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY
15Z FRI. ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND RESULT IN BKN-OVC CIGS
MOSTLY AOA100 AND NO PCPN. WINDS NW-W THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD AND REMAINING FAIRLY BRISK OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY FRIDAY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 8-10KTS...WITH
LOW END GUSTS TO 18KTS REMAINING POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ROA/BCB/BLF.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION FRI...RETURNING
ALL SITES TO VFR CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS
WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSING BY
TO THE NORTH FRI EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SAT-SUN WITH
A WARMING TREND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE REGION MON-TUE
WITH A CHANCE OF -SHRA AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG THE FRONT
FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL EASTERLY FLOW...THUS
ASSOCIATED MVFR CIGS.
&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WAS MALFUNCTIONING
AGAIN. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER BUT THE REPAIR MAY NOT BE UNTIL
MONDAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLYH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STAFF WHEN THE
CONTROL TOWER IS OPEN...OTHERWISE THE VISIBILITY WILL BE MISSING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/MBS
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...PC/RAB
EQUIPMENT...AMS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 280803
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
303 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY REACHING THE
COAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH SLIPS OFF TO OUR
SOUTHEAST DURING THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS....FOLLOWED BY SOMEWHAT COLDER WEATHER BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 215 AM EST FRIDAY...

BANDED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN UPSLOPE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING SUPPORTED BY EARLIER LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND
STRONG NW FLOW WITHIN THE INVERSION LAYER PER EVENING RNK SOUNDING. AS
THE UPPER TROUGH FINALLY LIFTS OUT THIS MORNING SHOULD SEE THE
85H COLD ADVECTION AND NW TRAJECTORY MAX OUT AROUND 12Z FOLLOWED
BY A WEAKER WESTERLY COMPONENT UNDER WARMING ALOFT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS IN COMBO WITH GRADUAL DRYING FROM ALOFT SHOULD
FINALLY BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO AN END BUT LIKELY NOT UNTIL EARLY
AFTERNOON OVER THE FAR NW WHERE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE LAST FAINT AXIS
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING ON. MAY SEE ANOTHER INCH OR TWO
ESPCLY IN BANDS FROM AROUND BLF TO WESTERN GREENBRIER CTY BUT AT
THIS POINT WILL STICK WITH A SPS RATHER THAN HOIST A SHORT
ADVISORY GIVEN MORE ISOLATED NATURE TO COVERAGE WITH TIME TOWARD
DAWN. NW FLOW ALSO REMAINS STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH FLURRIES OUT TO
THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS WELL SO INCLUDED MENTION
ALONG WITH MORE CLOUDS EARLY ON.

HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
SHOULD BRING MORE CLEARING TO THE MOUNTAINS WITH MAINLY SUNNY
SKIES EAST OUTSIDE OF SOME LATE DAY CI/AC. NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS WHILE ARCTIC AIR
AND MORE CLOUDS EARLY SUPPORTS LOWERING HIGHS TO ONLY AROUND 30
SE WVA AND LOW/MID 30S BLUE RIDGE. APPEARS ONLY THE FAR SOUTH/EAST
WILL TOP INTO THE LOW/MID 40S GIVEN MORE INSOLATION AND WEAK DOWNSLOPE.

SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING REACHING
COASTAL SECTIONS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING RETURN FLOW BACK TO
THE REGION WITH STEADY 85H WARMING UNDER A WEAK WAVE PASSING WELL
TO THE NORTH BY MORNING. HOWEVER APPEARS LITTLE MIXING OF WARMER
AIR ALOFT TO THE SURFACE WILL BE REALIZED EXCEPT UP ON THE RIDGES
SO ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IN STORE. INFILTRATION OF PASSING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS UNDER THE DISTURBANCE TO THE NORTH...LIKELY TO OCCUR AS
MOISTURE ALOFT SPILLS EAST/SE WITHIN THE WNW FLOW ALOFT SO OVERALL
CLEAR SW...TO MAINLY PC ELSW WITH MORE CLOUDINESS OVER THE NORTH.
THIS MAY TEND TO HOLD TEMPS UP SOME BUT STILL APPEARS LOWS MOSTLY
20S EXCEPT PERHAPS STEADY OR RISING INTO THE 30S RIDGETOPS LATE.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 210 AM EST FRIDAY...

FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...AND SOUTHWEST FLOW...WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOSER TO
THE SURFACE. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF MODERATING TEMPERATURES
AND NO PRECIPITATION FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION. THE ONE
AREA WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE THE
PORTION OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64 WEST OF COVINGTON. THIS REGION WILL BE IN
CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY THAT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY SKIRT THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY...AND EVEN MORE SO MONDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL DIP SOUTHEAST TROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND THEN
INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FOR TWO REASONS. FIRST WILL BE
THE SHOWERY PRECIPITATION CONCURRENT TO THE FRONT. THE SECOND REASON
WILL BE A BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT TO A
SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THIS WILL PROMPT UPSLOPE
STRATOFORM PATCHES OR AREAS OF RAIN ALONG AND EAST OF THE CREST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE ON MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE TO
OR MIX WITH SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 256 PM EST THURSDAY...

APPROACHING COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH ON MONDAY. BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN DOWNSLOPE EAST OF THE RIDGE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN AGGRESSIVELY WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD
ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN TO OUR TEMPS. CHANCE
POPS STILL WARRANTED THROUGH MIDWEEK DUE TO POSSIBLE UPSLOPE IN
E/SELY FLOW. NEXT APPROACHING LOW IS A FAIRLY SHALLOW AMPLITUDE
WAVE AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE HIGH TO DRIFT TO OUR EAST AND
LINGER A BIT...WITH RETURN FLOW WARMING US BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS
FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1145 PM EST THURSDAY...

UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION...BUT EMBEDDED
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVES HELPING TO ALLOW NEXT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR TO
SPREAD INTO THE REGION. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF
UPSLOPE...CAA...AND THE SHORT WAVES TRIGGERING PERSISTENT BANDS
OF -SHSN MAINLY WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT WITH A FEW -SHSN
SPILLING OVER TO THE WEST SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH STRONG CAA
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND YET ANOTHER WEAK EMBEDDED UPSTREAM SHORT
WAVE...WOULD EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. JUST SCT-BKN
CLOUDS AT TIMES FOR AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY MVFR WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH MID-MORNING
FRI...AND AT WORST LOW END VFR CIGS EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...INCLUDING ROA/LYH/DAN. -SHSN WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL
BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITY AT TIMES TO IFR CATEGORY...MAINLY LWB
AND BLF. BCB MAY SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS IS ANY OF THE
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS PENETRATE THAT FAR EAST. THE THREAT FOR
REDUCED VISIBILITY WILL DECREASE AFT 10Z AS THE MAIN SHORT WAVE
PASSES EAST OF THE REGION. ELSEWHERE...VSBYS MOSTLY VFR OVERNIGHT
AND FRI. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...POTENTIALLY HANGING IN TOUGH WITH MVFR CIGS AT BLF/LWB
THROUGH 18/19Z...BUT BECOMING SCT TO SKC EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY
15Z FRI. ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND RESULT IN BKN-OVC CIGS
MOSTLY AOA100 AND NO PCPN. WINDS NW-W THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD AND REMAINING FAIRLY BRISK OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY FRIDAY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 8-10KTS...WITH
LOW END GUSTS TO 18KTS REMAINING POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ROA/BCB/BLF.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION FRI...RETURNING
ALL SITES TO VFR CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS
WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSING BY
TO THE NORTH FRI EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SAT-SUN WITH
A WARMING TREND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE REGION MON-TUE
WITH A CHANCE OF -SHRA AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG THE FRONT
FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL EASTERLY FLOW...THUS
ASSOCIATED MVFR CIGS.
&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WAS MALFUNCTIONING
AGAIN. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER BUT THE REPAIR MAY NOT BE UNTIL
MONDAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLYH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STAFF WHEN THE
CONTROL TOWER IS OPEN...OTHERWISE THE VISIBILITY WILL BE MISSING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/MBS
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...PC/RAB
EQUIPMENT...AMS



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280547
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1247 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH FARTHER OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH
BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SFC LO PRES CONTS TO MOVE AWAY FM THE CST OVRNGT...WHILE SFC HI
PRES FM THE MID MS VLY BEGINS TO BUILD OVR THE MTNS INTO THE
MDATLC RGN. EARLIER SHRAS HAVE DISSIPATED...RESIDUAL MOISTURE HAS
BEEN SLO TO BREAK INVOF SE VA/NE NC PAST FEW HRS. XPCG CLRG FOR
THOSE AREAS OVRNGT...W/ MNLY SKC ELSW. THE CLDS HAVE BEEN HOLDING
TEMPS UP OVR SE VA/NE NC...BUT THAT LIKELY TO CHANGE SOON. LO
TEMPS RANGING FROM THE M/U20S W OF I 95 TO THE L/M30S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A QUIET PERIOD EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL ON FRI EVEN UNDER NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE. THIS WILL
RESULT FROM STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TN VALLEY...BUILDING
EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS. NW WINDS AVERAGING 10-15 MPH IN THE
MORNING WILL GENLY BECOME LIGHTER BY AFTN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. BLENDED GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE FOR HIGHS GIVEN 850 MB
TEMPS PROGGED TO BE -8 TO -10 C. THIS WILL YIELD HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 40S THROUGHOUT...MID 40S IN NE NC AND IT MAY NOT GET OUT
OF THE UPPER 30S ACRS THE FAR NORTH. THANKFULLY...THE SUN WILL
FINALLY SHINE. NAM/GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY FRI NIGHT...ALLOWING THE UPPER FLOW
TO FLATTEN OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS BRINGS AN INCREASE IN MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS LATE FRI/FRI NIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACRS THE NORTH.
STILL EXPECT A COLD NIGHT...AS TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY DROP IN THE
EVENING THEN LEVEL OFF THEREAFTER. LOWS MAINLY 25-30 F...NOT
REALLY ANY WARMER NEAR THE COAST DUE TO LIGHT FLOW ON THE NORTHERN
SIDE OF THE SFC HIGH. SKIES AVG PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
NORTH...AND PARTLY SUNNY SOUTH ON SAT...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS IN
THE AFTN. TEMPS MODERATE A BIT ON SAT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO
THE SSW. STILL A BIT BELOW AVG WITH HIGHS 50-55 F CENTRAL AND
SOUTH AND IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WILL SEND A COUPLE OF FAST MOVING COLD
FRONTS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
RIDGING ALONG THE LATITUDE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA WILL
KEEP HEIGHTS HIGH ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE SOUTHWARD PENETRATION OF
ARCTIC AIR.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MID LEVEL MOISTURE FOLLOWING THE
FRONT MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST WITH A CLEARING SKY
FROM THE WEST BUT SLGT CHC POPS CONTINUING TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG
TERM. HIGHS IN THE UPR 50S NE TO MID 60S SW MONDAY COOL TO THE MID
40S NW TO MID 50S SE TUESDAY. HIGHS IN THE 50S ARE FORECAST
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOWS IN THE 40S MONDAY MORNING LOWER TO THE
UPR 30S TO MID 40S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HI PRES WILL BLD OVR THE AREA DURING TODAY...RESULTING IN VFR
CONDITIONS PERSISTING AT THE TAF SITES. EXPECT JUST HI CLOUDS AND
MAYBE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS EVENG THRU SAT...AS A WEAK WARM
FRONT ALOFT LIFTS INTO AND ACRS THE AREA. NW WINDS WILL GUST TO
NEAR 20 KT LATE THIS MORNING...AS CAA CONTINUES ACRS THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SSW WINDS ARE EXPECTED SAT
NGT INTO MON...AS HI PRES WILL BE OFF THE MID ATLC/SE CST.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OFF THE ERN NC COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS
STRONG ~1034MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. NLY FLOW
OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AVG 10-15 KT. SEAS AVG 3-5
FT...HIGHEST IN THE NRN COASTAL ZONES. STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN TANDEM WITH CAA WILL RESULT IN SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE
WATERS TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. STRONGEST CAA ARRIVES THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT...WITH NWLY WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT OVER THE BAY/SOUND/COASTAL WATERS. 15-20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT OVER THE ERN VA RIVERS. SEAS BUILD TO 4-6 FT WITH
WAVES 3-4 FT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FRI MORNING AS
CAA WANES AND NWLY WINDS SUBSIDE. HEADLINES RUN THRU MID MORNING FOR
THE RIVERS AND EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE BAY. SEAS REMAIN 4-5 FT THRU
THE DAY...WITH HEADLINES EXTENDED THRU 6PM FRI. THEREAFTER...HIGH
PRESSURE AND SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL THRU THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS MON-MON EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND MON NIGHT-TUES...RIDGING OVER CNTRL VA.
RESULTANT N-NE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO NEAR SCA CONDITIONS MON
NIGHT-TUES AS SEAS BUILD TO 4-5 FT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO CROSS THE WATERS WEDS NIGHT INTO THURS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...SAM/LSA
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...SAM






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280547
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1247 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH FARTHER OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH
BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SFC LO PRES CONTS TO MOVE AWAY FM THE CST OVRNGT...WHILE SFC HI
PRES FM THE MID MS VLY BEGINS TO BUILD OVR THE MTNS INTO THE
MDATLC RGN. EARLIER SHRAS HAVE DISSIPATED...RESIDUAL MOISTURE HAS
BEEN SLO TO BREAK INVOF SE VA/NE NC PAST FEW HRS. XPCG CLRG FOR
THOSE AREAS OVRNGT...W/ MNLY SKC ELSW. THE CLDS HAVE BEEN HOLDING
TEMPS UP OVR SE VA/NE NC...BUT THAT LIKELY TO CHANGE SOON. LO
TEMPS RANGING FROM THE M/U20S W OF I 95 TO THE L/M30S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A QUIET PERIOD EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL ON FRI EVEN UNDER NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE. THIS WILL
RESULT FROM STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TN VALLEY...BUILDING
EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS. NW WINDS AVERAGING 10-15 MPH IN THE
MORNING WILL GENLY BECOME LIGHTER BY AFTN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. BLENDED GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE FOR HIGHS GIVEN 850 MB
TEMPS PROGGED TO BE -8 TO -10 C. THIS WILL YIELD HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 40S THROUGHOUT...MID 40S IN NE NC AND IT MAY NOT GET OUT
OF THE UPPER 30S ACRS THE FAR NORTH. THANKFULLY...THE SUN WILL
FINALLY SHINE. NAM/GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY FRI NIGHT...ALLOWING THE UPPER FLOW
TO FLATTEN OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS BRINGS AN INCREASE IN MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS LATE FRI/FRI NIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACRS THE NORTH.
STILL EXPECT A COLD NIGHT...AS TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY DROP IN THE
EVENING THEN LEVEL OFF THEREAFTER. LOWS MAINLY 25-30 F...NOT
REALLY ANY WARMER NEAR THE COAST DUE TO LIGHT FLOW ON THE NORTHERN
SIDE OF THE SFC HIGH. SKIES AVG PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
NORTH...AND PARTLY SUNNY SOUTH ON SAT...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS IN
THE AFTN. TEMPS MODERATE A BIT ON SAT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO
THE SSW. STILL A BIT BELOW AVG WITH HIGHS 50-55 F CENTRAL AND
SOUTH AND IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WILL SEND A COUPLE OF FAST MOVING COLD
FRONTS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
RIDGING ALONG THE LATITUDE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA WILL
KEEP HEIGHTS HIGH ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE SOUTHWARD PENETRATION OF
ARCTIC AIR.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MID LEVEL MOISTURE FOLLOWING THE
FRONT MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST WITH A CLEARING SKY
FROM THE WEST BUT SLGT CHC POPS CONTINUING TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG
TERM. HIGHS IN THE UPR 50S NE TO MID 60S SW MONDAY COOL TO THE MID
40S NW TO MID 50S SE TUESDAY. HIGHS IN THE 50S ARE FORECAST
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOWS IN THE 40S MONDAY MORNING LOWER TO THE
UPR 30S TO MID 40S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HI PRES WILL BLD OVR THE AREA DURING TODAY...RESULTING IN VFR
CONDITIONS PERSISTING AT THE TAF SITES. EXPECT JUST HI CLOUDS AND
MAYBE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS EVENG THRU SAT...AS A WEAK WARM
FRONT ALOFT LIFTS INTO AND ACRS THE AREA. NW WINDS WILL GUST TO
NEAR 20 KT LATE THIS MORNING...AS CAA CONTINUES ACRS THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SSW WINDS ARE EXPECTED SAT
NGT INTO MON...AS HI PRES WILL BE OFF THE MID ATLC/SE CST.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OFF THE ERN NC COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS
STRONG ~1034MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. NLY FLOW
OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AVG 10-15 KT. SEAS AVG 3-5
FT...HIGHEST IN THE NRN COASTAL ZONES. STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN TANDEM WITH CAA WILL RESULT IN SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE
WATERS TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. STRONGEST CAA ARRIVES THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT...WITH NWLY WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT OVER THE BAY/SOUND/COASTAL WATERS. 15-20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT OVER THE ERN VA RIVERS. SEAS BUILD TO 4-6 FT WITH
WAVES 3-4 FT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FRI MORNING AS
CAA WANES AND NWLY WINDS SUBSIDE. HEADLINES RUN THRU MID MORNING FOR
THE RIVERS AND EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE BAY. SEAS REMAIN 4-5 FT THRU
THE DAY...WITH HEADLINES EXTENDED THRU 6PM FRI. THEREAFTER...HIGH
PRESSURE AND SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL THRU THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS MON-MON EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND MON NIGHT-TUES...RIDGING OVER CNTRL VA.
RESULTANT N-NE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO NEAR SCA CONDITIONS MON
NIGHT-TUES AS SEAS BUILD TO 4-5 FT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO CROSS THE WATERS WEDS NIGHT INTO THURS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...SAM/LSA
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...SAM







000
FXUS61 KRNK 280452
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1152 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION AND BRING COLDER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION...ALONG WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. AS
THE HIGH SLIPS OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
AND WE WILL HAVE FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER BACK TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1000 PM EST THURSDAY...

SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN COUNTIES. CALLED COUNTY DOT
AND EOC CENTERS FROM BATH DOWN TO WATAUGA. MOST SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO BE IN WATAUGA AND ASHE WHERE MUCH OF THE
COUNTY HAS RECEIVED UP TO AN INCH THIS EVENING...2 INCHES AT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TAZEWELL AND BATH COUNTIES ALSO HAD SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATION...BUT ALL COUNTIES OUTSIDE THE NC COUNTIES APPEAR TO
BE LESS THAN 1 INCH. WITH CAA AND UPSLOPE WINDS CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT AS ARCTIC AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION...EXPECT SNOW
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE...BUT LIKELY TAPERING OFF AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES WITH UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT DIMINISHING AS SHORT WAVE
EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGE SCALE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE
REGION. NOT ENOUGH SNOW TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY AT THIS POINT...SO
HAVE POSTED AN SPS FOR MOST COUNTIES ALONG AND WEST OF THE
ALLEGHANY FRONT FROM BATH TO WATAUGA THROUGH 13Z. LINES UP WELL
WITH THINKING OF SURROUNDING OFFICES.


AS OF 700 PM EST THURSDAY...

EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IN EASTERN U.S. TROUGH COMBINING WITH NEXT
SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR AND ASSOCIATED CAA/UPSLOPE FLOW TO TRIGGER
-SHSN THROUGH THE ALLEGHANYS. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
WITH YET ANOTHER WEAK UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TO APPROACH LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRI. SINCE -SHSN HAVE BEEN REPORTED FOR SEVERAL
HOURS AS FAR EAST AS BCB AND OTHER NEARBY SITES...HAVE INCREASED
POPS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO ACCOUNT FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF
-SHSN. MOST WILL BE FLURRIES...BUT AT TIMES...NOTING BANDING OF
PCPN ON RADAR...THERE WILL BE SOME HEAVIER -SHSN...ESPECIALLY
UPSLOPE AREAS OF EASTERN WV/ALLEGHANYS. POPS VARY FROM LIKELY NW
GREENBRIER WHERE AN 1 OR SO OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE
OVERNIGHT...TO 0 EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. T/TD APPEAR TO BE ON
TRACK...SO NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

AS OF 256 PM EST THURSDAY...

UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT BUT NOT BEFORE A
PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS BRINGS SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FAVORED
UPSLOPE AREAS OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE 1 OR 2 INCHES IN WESTERN
GREENBRIER ALTHOUGH LIKELY NOT ENOUGH FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA. MAY
NEED TO ISSUE AN SPS OR TWO FOR MORE INTENSE SNOW BANDS. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE IN FULL FORCE OVERNIGHT AS H85 TEMPS DROP FROM
-2C TO -5C RANGE THIS AFTERNOON TO -8C TO -13C BY FRIDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN UP MOST OF THE NIGHT PREVENTING IDEAL
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS BUT STILL EXPECTING A COLD NIGHT FROM UPPER
TEENS IN THE NW TO MID-20S SE. SINGLE-DIGIT WIND CHILLS LIKELY IN
THE NW. FRIDAY WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SHIFTS EAST DURING THE DAY AND TEMPS
STRUGGLE TO REBOUND. A SHORT-WAVE SCOOTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
DURING THE DAY MAY THROW ENOUGH AFTERNOON HIGH CLOUDINESS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES TO IMPEDE WARMUP MUCH BEYOND
LOW 30S NW AND LOW 40S EAST WHICH IS EASILY 15F BELOW CLIMATOLOGY
FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 256 PM EST THURSDAY...

FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD SHAPING UP FOR THE WEEKEND. UPPER TROF WILL
BE PUSHING OFF TO OUR EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS WE ENTER MORE OF A
ZONAL PATTERN. THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SET UP
SHOP TO OUR EAST AND KEEP AN APPROACHING FRONT AT BAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL REALLY GET
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION CRANKING AND EXPECT MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S BY SUNDAY. THE BRISK LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO MAKE
FOR SOME WINDY CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 256 PM EST THURSDAY...

APPROACHING COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH ON MONDAY. BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN DOWNSLOPE EAST OF THE RIDGE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN AGGRESSIVELY WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD
ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN TO OUR TEMPS. CHANCE
POPS STILL WARRANTED THROUGH MIDWEEK DUE TO POSSIBLE UPSLOPE IN
E/SELY FLOW. NEXT APPROACHING LOW IS A FAIRLY SHALLOW AMPLITUDE
WAVE AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE HIGH TO DRIFT TO OUR EAST AND
LINGER A BIT...WITH RETURN FLOW WARMING US BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS
FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1145 PM EST THURSDAY...

UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION...BUT EMBEDDED
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVES HELPING TO ALLOW NEXT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR TO
SPREAD INTO THE REGION. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF
UPSLOPE...CAA...AND THE SHORT WAVES TRIGGERING PERSISTENT BANDS
OF -SHSN MAINLY WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT WITH A FEW -SHSN
SPILLING OVER TO THE WEST SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH STRONG CAA
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND YET ANOTHER WEAK EMBEDDED UPSTREAM SHORT
WAVE...WOULD EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. JUST SCT-BKN
CLOUDS AT TIMES FOR AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY MVFR WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH MID-MORNING
FRI...AND AT WORST LOW END VFR CIGS EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...INCLUDING ROA/LYH/DAN. -SHSN WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL
BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITY AT TIMES TO IFR CATEGORY...MAINLY LWB
AND BLF. BCB MAY SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS IS ANY OF THE
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS PENETRATE THAT FAR EAST. THE THREAT FOR
REDUCED VISIBILITY WILL DECREASE AFT 10Z AS THE MAIN SHORT WAVE
PASSES EAST OF THE REGION. ELSEWHERE...VSBYS MOSTLY VFR OVERNIGHT
AND FRI. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...POTENTIALLY HANGING IN TOUGH WITH MVFR CIGS AT BLF/LWB
THROUGH 18/19Z...BUT BECOMING SCT TO SKC EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY
15Z FRI. ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND RESULT IN BKN-OVC CIGS
MOSTLY AOA100 AND NO PCPN. WINDS NW-W THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD AND REMAINING FAIRLY BRISK OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY FRIDAY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 8-10KTS...WITH
LOW END GUSTS TO 18KTS REMAINING POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ROA/BCB/BLF.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION FRI...RETURNING
ALL SITES TO VFR CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS
WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSING BY
TO THE NORTH FRI EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SAT-SUN WITH
A WARMING TREND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE REGION MON-TUE
WITH A CHANCE OF -SHRA AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG THE FRONT
FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL EASTERLY FLOW...THUS
ASSOCIATED MVFR CIGS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WAS MALFUNCTIONING
AGAIN. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER BUT THE REPAIR MAY NOT BE UNTIL
MONDAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLYH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STAFF WHEN THE
CONTROL TOWER IS OPEN...OTHERWISE THE VISIBILITY WILL BE MISSING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...PC/RAB
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...PC/RAB
EQUIPMENT...AMS



000
FXUS61 KRNK 280452
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1152 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION AND BRING COLDER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION...ALONG WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. AS
THE HIGH SLIPS OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
AND WE WILL HAVE FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER BACK TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1000 PM EST THURSDAY...

SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN COUNTIES. CALLED COUNTY DOT
AND EOC CENTERS FROM BATH DOWN TO WATAUGA. MOST SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO BE IN WATAUGA AND ASHE WHERE MUCH OF THE
COUNTY HAS RECEIVED UP TO AN INCH THIS EVENING...2 INCHES AT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TAZEWELL AND BATH COUNTIES ALSO HAD SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATION...BUT ALL COUNTIES OUTSIDE THE NC COUNTIES APPEAR TO
BE LESS THAN 1 INCH. WITH CAA AND UPSLOPE WINDS CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT AS ARCTIC AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION...EXPECT SNOW
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE...BUT LIKELY TAPERING OFF AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES WITH UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT DIMINISHING AS SHORT WAVE
EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGE SCALE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE
REGION. NOT ENOUGH SNOW TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY AT THIS POINT...SO
HAVE POSTED AN SPS FOR MOST COUNTIES ALONG AND WEST OF THE
ALLEGHANY FRONT FROM BATH TO WATAUGA THROUGH 13Z. LINES UP WELL
WITH THINKING OF SURROUNDING OFFICES.


AS OF 700 PM EST THURSDAY...

EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IN EASTERN U.S. TROUGH COMBINING WITH NEXT
SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR AND ASSOCIATED CAA/UPSLOPE FLOW TO TRIGGER
-SHSN THROUGH THE ALLEGHANYS. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
WITH YET ANOTHER WEAK UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TO APPROACH LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRI. SINCE -SHSN HAVE BEEN REPORTED FOR SEVERAL
HOURS AS FAR EAST AS BCB AND OTHER NEARBY SITES...HAVE INCREASED
POPS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO ACCOUNT FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF
-SHSN. MOST WILL BE FLURRIES...BUT AT TIMES...NOTING BANDING OF
PCPN ON RADAR...THERE WILL BE SOME HEAVIER -SHSN...ESPECIALLY
UPSLOPE AREAS OF EASTERN WV/ALLEGHANYS. POPS VARY FROM LIKELY NW
GREENBRIER WHERE AN 1 OR SO OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE
OVERNIGHT...TO 0 EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. T/TD APPEAR TO BE ON
TRACK...SO NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

AS OF 256 PM EST THURSDAY...

UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT BUT NOT BEFORE A
PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS BRINGS SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FAVORED
UPSLOPE AREAS OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE 1 OR 2 INCHES IN WESTERN
GREENBRIER ALTHOUGH LIKELY NOT ENOUGH FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA. MAY
NEED TO ISSUE AN SPS OR TWO FOR MORE INTENSE SNOW BANDS. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE IN FULL FORCE OVERNIGHT AS H85 TEMPS DROP FROM
-2C TO -5C RANGE THIS AFTERNOON TO -8C TO -13C BY FRIDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN UP MOST OF THE NIGHT PREVENTING IDEAL
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS BUT STILL EXPECTING A COLD NIGHT FROM UPPER
TEENS IN THE NW TO MID-20S SE. SINGLE-DIGIT WIND CHILLS LIKELY IN
THE NW. FRIDAY WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SHIFTS EAST DURING THE DAY AND TEMPS
STRUGGLE TO REBOUND. A SHORT-WAVE SCOOTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
DURING THE DAY MAY THROW ENOUGH AFTERNOON HIGH CLOUDINESS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES TO IMPEDE WARMUP MUCH BEYOND
LOW 30S NW AND LOW 40S EAST WHICH IS EASILY 15F BELOW CLIMATOLOGY
FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 256 PM EST THURSDAY...

FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD SHAPING UP FOR THE WEEKEND. UPPER TROF WILL
BE PUSHING OFF TO OUR EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS WE ENTER MORE OF A
ZONAL PATTERN. THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SET UP
SHOP TO OUR EAST AND KEEP AN APPROACHING FRONT AT BAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL REALLY GET
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION CRANKING AND EXPECT MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S BY SUNDAY. THE BRISK LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO MAKE
FOR SOME WINDY CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 256 PM EST THURSDAY...

APPROACHING COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH ON MONDAY. BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN DOWNSLOPE EAST OF THE RIDGE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN AGGRESSIVELY WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD
ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN TO OUR TEMPS. CHANCE
POPS STILL WARRANTED THROUGH MIDWEEK DUE TO POSSIBLE UPSLOPE IN
E/SELY FLOW. NEXT APPROACHING LOW IS A FAIRLY SHALLOW AMPLITUDE
WAVE AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE HIGH TO DRIFT TO OUR EAST AND
LINGER A BIT...WITH RETURN FLOW WARMING US BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS
FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1145 PM EST THURSDAY...

UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION...BUT EMBEDDED
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVES HELPING TO ALLOW NEXT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR TO
SPREAD INTO THE REGION. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF
UPSLOPE...CAA...AND THE SHORT WAVES TRIGGERING PERSISTENT BANDS
OF -SHSN MAINLY WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT WITH A FEW -SHSN
SPILLING OVER TO THE WEST SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH STRONG CAA
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND YET ANOTHER WEAK EMBEDDED UPSTREAM SHORT
WAVE...WOULD EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. JUST SCT-BKN
CLOUDS AT TIMES FOR AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY MVFR WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH MID-MORNING
FRI...AND AT WORST LOW END VFR CIGS EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...INCLUDING ROA/LYH/DAN. -SHSN WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL
BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITY AT TIMES TO IFR CATEGORY...MAINLY LWB
AND BLF. BCB MAY SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS IS ANY OF THE
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS PENETRATE THAT FAR EAST. THE THREAT FOR
REDUCED VISIBILITY WILL DECREASE AFT 10Z AS THE MAIN SHORT WAVE
PASSES EAST OF THE REGION. ELSEWHERE...VSBYS MOSTLY VFR OVERNIGHT
AND FRI. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...POTENTIALLY HANGING IN TOUGH WITH MVFR CIGS AT BLF/LWB
THROUGH 18/19Z...BUT BECOMING SCT TO SKC EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY
15Z FRI. ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND RESULT IN BKN-OVC CIGS
MOSTLY AOA100 AND NO PCPN. WINDS NW-W THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD AND REMAINING FAIRLY BRISK OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY FRIDAY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 8-10KTS...WITH
LOW END GUSTS TO 18KTS REMAINING POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ROA/BCB/BLF.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION FRI...RETURNING
ALL SITES TO VFR CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS
WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSING BY
TO THE NORTH FRI EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SAT-SUN WITH
A WARMING TREND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE REGION MON-TUE
WITH A CHANCE OF -SHRA AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG THE FRONT
FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL EASTERLY FLOW...THUS
ASSOCIATED MVFR CIGS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WAS MALFUNCTIONING
AGAIN. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER BUT THE REPAIR MAY NOT BE UNTIL
MONDAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLYH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STAFF WHEN THE
CONTROL TOWER IS OPEN...OTHERWISE THE VISIBILITY WILL BE MISSING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...PC/RAB
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...PC/RAB
EQUIPMENT...AMS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280342
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1042 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH FARTHER OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH
BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SFC LO PRES CONTS TO MOVE AWAY FM THE CST OVRNGT...WHILE SFC HI
PRES FM THE MID MS VLY BEGINS TO BUILD OVR THE MTNS INTO THE
MDATLC RGN. EARLIER SHRAS HAVE DISSIPATED...RESIDUAL MOISTURE HAS
BEEN SLO TO BREAK INVOF SE VA/NE NC PAST FEW HRS. XPCG CLRG FOR
THOSE AREAS OVRNGT...W/ MNLY SKC ELSW. THE CLDS HAVE BEEN HOLDING
TEMPS UP OVR SE VA/NE NC...BUT THAT LIKELY TO CHANGE SOON. LO
TEMPS RANGING FROM THE M/U20S W OF I 95 TO THE L/M30S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A QUIET PERIOD EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL ON FRI EVEN UNDER NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE. THIS WILL
RESULT FROM STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TN VALLEY...BUILDING
EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS. NW WINDS AVERAGING 10-15 MPH IN THE
MORNING WILL GENLY BECOME LIGHTER BY AFTN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. BLENDED GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE FOR HIGHS GIVEN 850 MB
TEMPS PROGGED TO BE -8 TO -10 C. THIS WILL YIELD HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 40S THROUGHOUT...MID 40S IN NE NC AND IT MAY NOT GET OUT
OF THE UPPER 30S ACRS THE FAR NORTH. THANKFULLY...THE SUN WILL
FINALLY SHINE. NAM/GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY FRI NIGHT...ALLOWING THE UPPER FLOW
TO FLATTEN OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS BRINGS AN INCREASE IN MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS LATE FRI/FRI NIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACRS THE NORTH.
STILL EXPECT A COLD NIGHT...AS TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY DROP IN THE
EVENING THEN LEVEL OFF THEREAFTER. LOWS MAINLY 25-30 F...NOT
REALLY ANY WARMER NEAR THE COAST DUE TO LIGHT FLOW ON THE NORTHERN
SIDE OF THE SFC HIGH. SKIES AVG PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
NORTH...AND PARTLY SUNNY SOUTH ON SAT...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS IN
THE AFTN. TEMPS MODERATE A BIT ON SAT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO
THE SSW. STILL A BIT BELOW AVG WITH HIGHS 50-55 F CENTRAL AND
SOUTH AND IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WILL SEND A COUPLE OF FAST MOVING COLD
FRONTS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
RIDGING ALONG THE LATITUDE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA WILL
KEEP HEIGHTS HIGH ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE SOUTHWARD PENETRATION OF
ARCTIC AIR.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MID LEVEL MOISTURE FOLLOWING THE
FRONT MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST WITH A CLEARING SKY
FROM THE WEST BUT SLGT CHC POPS CONTINUING TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG
TERM. HIGHS IN THE UPR 50S NE TO MID 60S SW MONDAY COOL TO THE MID
40S NW TO MID 50S SE TUESDAY. HIGHS IN THE 50S ARE FORECAST
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOWS IN THE 40S MONDAY MORNING LOWER TO THE
UPR 30S TO MID 40S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. UPPER WAVE
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW CONTINUE TO PUSH FARTHER OFF THE SE
COAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL HELP CREATE
SKC OVERNIGHT INTO FRI AFTN. NW WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 20KT LATE
FRI MORNING AS CAA CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA.

OUTLOOK... UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE...VFR CONDS AND
DRY WX IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OFF THE ERN NC COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS
STRONG ~1034MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. NLY FLOW
OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AVG 10-15 KT. SEAS AVG 3-5
FT...HIGHEST IN THE NRN COASTAL ZONES. STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN TANDEM WITH CAA WILL RESULT IN SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE
WATERS TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. STRONGEST CAA ARRIVES THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT...WITH NWLY WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT OVER THE BAY/SOUND/COASTAL WATERS. 15-20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT OVER THE ERN VA RIVERS. SEAS BUILD TO 4-6 FT WITH
WAVES 3-4 FT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FRI MORNING AS
CAA WANES AND NWLY WINDS SUBSIDE. HEADLINES RUN THRU MID MORNING FOR
THE RIVERS AND EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE BAY. SEAS REMAIN 4-5 FT THRU
THE DAY...WITH HEADLINES EXTENDED THRU 6PM FRI. THEREAFTER...HIGH
PRESSURE AND SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL THRU THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS MON-MON EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND MON NIGHT-TUES...RIDGING OVER CNTRL VA.
RESULTANT N-NE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO NEAR SCA CONDITIONS MON
NIGHT-TUES AS SEAS BUILD TO 4-5 FT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO CROSS THE WATERS WEDS NIGHT INTO THURS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...SAM/LSA
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...JDM/SAM










000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280342
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1042 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH FARTHER OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH
BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SFC LO PRES CONTS TO MOVE AWAY FM THE CST OVRNGT...WHILE SFC HI
PRES FM THE MID MS VLY BEGINS TO BUILD OVR THE MTNS INTO THE
MDATLC RGN. EARLIER SHRAS HAVE DISSIPATED...RESIDUAL MOISTURE HAS
BEEN SLO TO BREAK INVOF SE VA/NE NC PAST FEW HRS. XPCG CLRG FOR
THOSE AREAS OVRNGT...W/ MNLY SKC ELSW. THE CLDS HAVE BEEN HOLDING
TEMPS UP OVR SE VA/NE NC...BUT THAT LIKELY TO CHANGE SOON. LO
TEMPS RANGING FROM THE M/U20S W OF I 95 TO THE L/M30S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A QUIET PERIOD EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL ON FRI EVEN UNDER NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE. THIS WILL
RESULT FROM STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TN VALLEY...BUILDING
EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS. NW WINDS AVERAGING 10-15 MPH IN THE
MORNING WILL GENLY BECOME LIGHTER BY AFTN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. BLENDED GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE FOR HIGHS GIVEN 850 MB
TEMPS PROGGED TO BE -8 TO -10 C. THIS WILL YIELD HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 40S THROUGHOUT...MID 40S IN NE NC AND IT MAY NOT GET OUT
OF THE UPPER 30S ACRS THE FAR NORTH. THANKFULLY...THE SUN WILL
FINALLY SHINE. NAM/GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY FRI NIGHT...ALLOWING THE UPPER FLOW
TO FLATTEN OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS BRINGS AN INCREASE IN MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS LATE FRI/FRI NIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACRS THE NORTH.
STILL EXPECT A COLD NIGHT...AS TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY DROP IN THE
EVENING THEN LEVEL OFF THEREAFTER. LOWS MAINLY 25-30 F...NOT
REALLY ANY WARMER NEAR THE COAST DUE TO LIGHT FLOW ON THE NORTHERN
SIDE OF THE SFC HIGH. SKIES AVG PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
NORTH...AND PARTLY SUNNY SOUTH ON SAT...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS IN
THE AFTN. TEMPS MODERATE A BIT ON SAT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO
THE SSW. STILL A BIT BELOW AVG WITH HIGHS 50-55 F CENTRAL AND
SOUTH AND IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WILL SEND A COUPLE OF FAST MOVING COLD
FRONTS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
RIDGING ALONG THE LATITUDE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA WILL
KEEP HEIGHTS HIGH ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE SOUTHWARD PENETRATION OF
ARCTIC AIR.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MID LEVEL MOISTURE FOLLOWING THE
FRONT MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST WITH A CLEARING SKY
FROM THE WEST BUT SLGT CHC POPS CONTINUING TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG
TERM. HIGHS IN THE UPR 50S NE TO MID 60S SW MONDAY COOL TO THE MID
40S NW TO MID 50S SE TUESDAY. HIGHS IN THE 50S ARE FORECAST
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOWS IN THE 40S MONDAY MORNING LOWER TO THE
UPR 30S TO MID 40S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. UPPER WAVE
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW CONTINUE TO PUSH FARTHER OFF THE SE
COAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL HELP CREATE
SKC OVERNIGHT INTO FRI AFTN. NW WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 20KT LATE
FRI MORNING AS CAA CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA.

OUTLOOK... UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE...VFR CONDS AND
DRY WX IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OFF THE ERN NC COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS
STRONG ~1034MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. NLY FLOW
OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AVG 10-15 KT. SEAS AVG 3-5
FT...HIGHEST IN THE NRN COASTAL ZONES. STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN TANDEM WITH CAA WILL RESULT IN SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE
WATERS TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. STRONGEST CAA ARRIVES THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT...WITH NWLY WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT OVER THE BAY/SOUND/COASTAL WATERS. 15-20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT OVER THE ERN VA RIVERS. SEAS BUILD TO 4-6 FT WITH
WAVES 3-4 FT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FRI MORNING AS
CAA WANES AND NWLY WINDS SUBSIDE. HEADLINES RUN THRU MID MORNING FOR
THE RIVERS AND EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE BAY. SEAS REMAIN 4-5 FT THRU
THE DAY...WITH HEADLINES EXTENDED THRU 6PM FRI. THEREAFTER...HIGH
PRESSURE AND SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL THRU THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS MON-MON EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND MON NIGHT-TUES...RIDGING OVER CNTRL VA.
RESULTANT N-NE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO NEAR SCA CONDITIONS MON
NIGHT-TUES AS SEAS BUILD TO 4-5 FT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO CROSS THE WATERS WEDS NIGHT INTO THURS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...SAM/LSA
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...JDM/SAM











000
FXUS61 KRNK 280302
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1002 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION AND BRING COLDER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION...ALONG WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. AS
THE HIGH SLIPS OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
AND WE WILL HAVE FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER BACK TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1000 PM EST THURSDAY...

SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN COUNTIES. CALLED COUNTY DOT
AND EOC CENTERS FROM BATH DOWN TO WATAUGA. MOST SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO BE IN WATAUGA AND ASHE WHERE MUCH OF THE
COUNTY HAS RECEIVED UP TO AN INCH THIS EVENING...2 INCHES AT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TAZEWELL AND BATH COUNTIES ALSO HAD SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATION...BUT ALL COUNTIES OUTSIDE THE NC COUNTIES APPEAR TO
BE LESS THAN 1 INCH. WITH CAA AND UPSLOPE WINDS CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT AS ARCTIC AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION...EXPECT SNOW
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE...BUT LIKELY TAPERING OFF AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES WITH UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT DIMINISHING AS SHORT WAVE
EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGE SCALE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE
REGION. NOT ENOUGH SNOW TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY AT THIS POINT...SO
HAVE POSTED AN SPS FOR MOST COUNTIES ALONG AND WEST OF THE
ALLEGHANY FRONT FROM BATH TO WATAUGA THROUGH 13Z. LINES UP WELL
WITH THINKING OF SURROUNDING OFFICES.


AS OF 700 PM EST THURSDAY...

EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IN EASTERN U.S. TROUGH COMBINING WITH NEXT
SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR AND ASSOCIATED CAA/UPSLOPE FLOW TO TRIGGER
-SHSN THROUGH THE ALLEGHANYS. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
WITH YET ANOTHER WEAK UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TO APPROACH LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRI. SINCE -SHSN HAVE BEEN REPORTED FOR SEVERAL
HOURS AS FAR EAST AS BCB AND OTHER NEARBY SITES...HAVE INCREASED
POPS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO ACCOUNT FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF
-SHSN. MOST WILL BE FLURRIES...BUT AT TIMES...NOTING BANDING OF
PCPN ON RADAR...THERE WILL BE SOME HEAVIER -SHSN...ESPECIALLY
UPSLOPE AREAS OF EASTERN WV/ALLEGHANYS. POPS VARY FROM LIKELY NW
GREENBRIER WHERE AN 1 OR SO OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE
OVERNIGHT...TO 0 EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. T/TD APPEAR TO BE ON
TRACK...SO NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

AS OF 256 PM EST THURSDAY...

UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT BUT NOT BEFORE A
PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS BRINGS SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FAVORED
UPSLOPE AREAS OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE 1 OR 2 INCHES IN WESTERN
GREENBRIER ALTHOUGH LIKELY NOT ENOUGH FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA. MAY
NEED TO ISSUE AN SPS OR TWO FOR MORE INTENSE SNOW BANDS. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE IN FULL FORCE OVERNIGHT AS H85 TEMPS DROP FROM
-2C TO -5C RANGE THIS AFTERNOON TO -8C TO -13C BY FRIDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN UP MOST OF THE NIGHT PREVENTING IDEAL
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS BUT STILL EXPECTING A COLD NIGHT FROM UPPER
TEENS IN THE NW TO MID-20S SE. SINGLE-DIGIT WIND CHILLS LIKELY IN
THE NW. FRIDAY WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SHIFTS EAST DURING THE DAY AND TEMPS
STRUGGLE TO REBOUND. A SHORT-WAVE SCOOTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
DURING THE DAY MAY THROW ENOUGH AFTERNOON HIGH CLOUDINESS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES TO IMPEDE WARMUP MUCH BEYOND
LOW 30S NW AND LOW 40S EAST WHICH IS EASILY 15F BELOW CLIMATOLOGY
FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 256 PM EST THURSDAY...

FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD SHAPING UP FOR THE WEEKEND. UPPER TROF WILL
BE PUSHING OFF TO OUR EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS WE ENTER MORE OF A
ZONAL PATTERN. THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SET UP
SHOP TO OUR EAST AND KEEP AN APPROACHING FRONT AT BAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL REALLY GET
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION CRANKING AND EXPECT MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S BY SUNDAY. THE BRISK LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO MAKE
FOR SOME WINDY CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 256 PM EST THURSDAY...

APPROACHING COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH ON MONDAY. BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN DOWNSLOPE EAST OF THE RIDGE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN AGGRESSIVELY WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD
ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN TO OUR TEMPS. CHANCE
POPS STILL WARRANTED THROUGH MIDWEEK DUE TO POSSIBLE UPSLOPE IN
E/SELY FLOW. NEXT APPROACHING LOW IS A FAIRLY SHALLOW AMPLITUDE
WAVE AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE HIGH TO DRIFT TO OUR EAST AND
LINGER A BIT...WITH RETURN FLOW WARMING US BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS
FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM EST THURSDAY...

UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION. WEAK EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVE HELPING TO ALLOW NEXT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR TO SPREAD INTO THE
REGION. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF UPSLOPE...CAA...AND THE SHORT WAVE
TRIGGERING SCT -SHSN MAINLY WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT WITH A FEW
-SHSN SPILLING OVER TO THE WEST SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH CAA
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND YET ANOTHER WEAK EMBEDDED UPSTREAM SHORT
WAVE...WOULD EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. JUST SCT-BKN
CLOUDS AT TIMES FOR AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY MVFR WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH MID-MORNING
FRI...AND AT WORST LOW END VFR CIGS EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...INCLUDING ROA/LYH/DAN. -SHSN WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL
BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITY AT TIMES TO IFR CATEGORY...MAINLY LWB
AND BLF. THE THREAT FOR THIS WILL DECREASE AFT 06Z AND THE MAIN
SHORT WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE REGION. ELSEWHERE...VSBYS MOSTLY VFR
OVERNIGHT AND FRI. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...POTENTIALLY HANGING IN TOUGH WITH MVFR CIGS AT
BLF/LWB THROUGH 18/19Z...BUT BECOMING SCT TO SKC EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE BY 18Z FRI. WINDS NW-W THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD AT
SPEEDS OF 6-10KTS...WITH LOW END GUSTS REMAINING POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT ROA/BCB/BLF.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION FRI...RETURNING
ALL SITES TO VFR CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS
WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSING BY
TO THE NORTH FRI EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SAT-SUN WITH
A WARMING TREND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE REGION MON-TUE
WITH A CHANCE OF -SHRA AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG THE FRONT
FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL EASTERLY FLOW...THUS
ASSOCIATED MVFR CIGS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WAS MALFUNCTIONING
AGAIN. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER BUT THE REPAIR MAY NOT BE UNTIL
MONDAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLYH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STAFF WHEN THE
CONTROL TOWER IS OPEN...OTHERWISE THE VISIBILITY WILL BE MISSING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...PC/RAB
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...PC/RAB
EQUIPMENT...AMS



000
FXUS61 KRNK 280302
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1002 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION AND BRING COLDER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION...ALONG WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. AS
THE HIGH SLIPS OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
AND WE WILL HAVE FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER BACK TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1000 PM EST THURSDAY...

SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN COUNTIES. CALLED COUNTY DOT
AND EOC CENTERS FROM BATH DOWN TO WATAUGA. MOST SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO BE IN WATAUGA AND ASHE WHERE MUCH OF THE
COUNTY HAS RECEIVED UP TO AN INCH THIS EVENING...2 INCHES AT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TAZEWELL AND BATH COUNTIES ALSO HAD SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATION...BUT ALL COUNTIES OUTSIDE THE NC COUNTIES APPEAR TO
BE LESS THAN 1 INCH. WITH CAA AND UPSLOPE WINDS CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT AS ARCTIC AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION...EXPECT SNOW
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE...BUT LIKELY TAPERING OFF AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES WITH UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT DIMINISHING AS SHORT WAVE
EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGE SCALE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE
REGION. NOT ENOUGH SNOW TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY AT THIS POINT...SO
HAVE POSTED AN SPS FOR MOST COUNTIES ALONG AND WEST OF THE
ALLEGHANY FRONT FROM BATH TO WATAUGA THROUGH 13Z. LINES UP WELL
WITH THINKING OF SURROUNDING OFFICES.


AS OF 700 PM EST THURSDAY...

EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IN EASTERN U.S. TROUGH COMBINING WITH NEXT
SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR AND ASSOCIATED CAA/UPSLOPE FLOW TO TRIGGER
-SHSN THROUGH THE ALLEGHANYS. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
WITH YET ANOTHER WEAK UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TO APPROACH LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRI. SINCE -SHSN HAVE BEEN REPORTED FOR SEVERAL
HOURS AS FAR EAST AS BCB AND OTHER NEARBY SITES...HAVE INCREASED
POPS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO ACCOUNT FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF
-SHSN. MOST WILL BE FLURRIES...BUT AT TIMES...NOTING BANDING OF
PCPN ON RADAR...THERE WILL BE SOME HEAVIER -SHSN...ESPECIALLY
UPSLOPE AREAS OF EASTERN WV/ALLEGHANYS. POPS VARY FROM LIKELY NW
GREENBRIER WHERE AN 1 OR SO OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE
OVERNIGHT...TO 0 EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. T/TD APPEAR TO BE ON
TRACK...SO NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

AS OF 256 PM EST THURSDAY...

UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT BUT NOT BEFORE A
PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS BRINGS SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FAVORED
UPSLOPE AREAS OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE 1 OR 2 INCHES IN WESTERN
GREENBRIER ALTHOUGH LIKELY NOT ENOUGH FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA. MAY
NEED TO ISSUE AN SPS OR TWO FOR MORE INTENSE SNOW BANDS. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE IN FULL FORCE OVERNIGHT AS H85 TEMPS DROP FROM
-2C TO -5C RANGE THIS AFTERNOON TO -8C TO -13C BY FRIDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN UP MOST OF THE NIGHT PREVENTING IDEAL
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS BUT STILL EXPECTING A COLD NIGHT FROM UPPER
TEENS IN THE NW TO MID-20S SE. SINGLE-DIGIT WIND CHILLS LIKELY IN
THE NW. FRIDAY WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SHIFTS EAST DURING THE DAY AND TEMPS
STRUGGLE TO REBOUND. A SHORT-WAVE SCOOTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
DURING THE DAY MAY THROW ENOUGH AFTERNOON HIGH CLOUDINESS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES TO IMPEDE WARMUP MUCH BEYOND
LOW 30S NW AND LOW 40S EAST WHICH IS EASILY 15F BELOW CLIMATOLOGY
FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 256 PM EST THURSDAY...

FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD SHAPING UP FOR THE WEEKEND. UPPER TROF WILL
BE PUSHING OFF TO OUR EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS WE ENTER MORE OF A
ZONAL PATTERN. THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SET UP
SHOP TO OUR EAST AND KEEP AN APPROACHING FRONT AT BAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL REALLY GET
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION CRANKING AND EXPECT MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S BY SUNDAY. THE BRISK LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO MAKE
FOR SOME WINDY CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 256 PM EST THURSDAY...

APPROACHING COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH ON MONDAY. BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN DOWNSLOPE EAST OF THE RIDGE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN AGGRESSIVELY WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD
ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN TO OUR TEMPS. CHANCE
POPS STILL WARRANTED THROUGH MIDWEEK DUE TO POSSIBLE UPSLOPE IN
E/SELY FLOW. NEXT APPROACHING LOW IS A FAIRLY SHALLOW AMPLITUDE
WAVE AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE HIGH TO DRIFT TO OUR EAST AND
LINGER A BIT...WITH RETURN FLOW WARMING US BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS
FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM EST THURSDAY...

UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION. WEAK EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVE HELPING TO ALLOW NEXT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR TO SPREAD INTO THE
REGION. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF UPSLOPE...CAA...AND THE SHORT WAVE
TRIGGERING SCT -SHSN MAINLY WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT WITH A FEW
-SHSN SPILLING OVER TO THE WEST SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH CAA
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND YET ANOTHER WEAK EMBEDDED UPSTREAM SHORT
WAVE...WOULD EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. JUST SCT-BKN
CLOUDS AT TIMES FOR AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY MVFR WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH MID-MORNING
FRI...AND AT WORST LOW END VFR CIGS EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...INCLUDING ROA/LYH/DAN. -SHSN WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL
BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITY AT TIMES TO IFR CATEGORY...MAINLY LWB
AND BLF. THE THREAT FOR THIS WILL DECREASE AFT 06Z AND THE MAIN
SHORT WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE REGION. ELSEWHERE...VSBYS MOSTLY VFR
OVERNIGHT AND FRI. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...POTENTIALLY HANGING IN TOUGH WITH MVFR CIGS AT
BLF/LWB THROUGH 18/19Z...BUT BECOMING SCT TO SKC EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE BY 18Z FRI. WINDS NW-W THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD AT
SPEEDS OF 6-10KTS...WITH LOW END GUSTS REMAINING POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT ROA/BCB/BLF.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION FRI...RETURNING
ALL SITES TO VFR CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS
WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSING BY
TO THE NORTH FRI EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SAT-SUN WITH
A WARMING TREND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE REGION MON-TUE
WITH A CHANCE OF -SHRA AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG THE FRONT
FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL EASTERLY FLOW...THUS
ASSOCIATED MVFR CIGS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WAS MALFUNCTIONING
AGAIN. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER BUT THE REPAIR MAY NOT BE UNTIL
MONDAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLYH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STAFF WHEN THE
CONTROL TOWER IS OPEN...OTHERWISE THE VISIBILITY WILL BE MISSING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...PC/RAB
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...PC/RAB
EQUIPMENT...AMS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 280146
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
846 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH BUILDS IN TONIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT WHILE
THE AREA REMAINS UNDERNEATH UPPR LVL TROUGH AS IT SLOWLY SWINGS TO
THE EAST. ALREADY SEEING SCT-NUM SNOW SHOWERS OVR AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AS INDICATED BY BOTH RADAR
REFLECTIVITY AND OBSERVER REPORTS WITH AROUND 1 INCH HAVING BEEN
REPORTED THUS FAR. NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP UPSLOPING SNOW
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WX
ADVISORY CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN HIGHLAND...GRANT AND
PENDLETON. IN ADDITION...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE
TROUGH...COULD SEE ISO-SCT FLURRIES OCCUR OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AROUND THE BALTIMORE AND DC METRO AREAS THRU 05Z THOUGH
NO ACCUMS EXPECTED. FCST MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS ALONG
THE ALLEGHENY FRONT TO THE LOW 30S NEAR WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. ANY LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WILL DIMINISH AND SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...IT WILL BE COLD DUE TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE
BUILDING HIGH. MAX TEMPS WILL BE BELOW CLIMO...RANGING FROM THE
20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT AND
SOUTHERN MARYLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
PATTERN SHIFT AS WRN CONUS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS AN UPR TROUGH SHIFTS
SOUTH INTO THE PAC NW. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EAST FROM
THE MIDWEST STATES AND INTO THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. 00Z ECMWF/12Z GFS
SUGGEST LIFT FROM THIS FRONT WILL CAUSE PRECIP INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS FRIDAY NIGHT. IN SPITE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION...THERMAL
PROFILES COOL ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW. LIMITED POPS FOR NOW TO THE NWRN
THREE ZONES (WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT). MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
ELSEWHERE...THOUGH PLENTY OF COLD AIR AND LITTLE MIXING WILL ALLOW
FOR MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S INLAND...UPR 20S NEAR SHORE.

WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IN SWLY FLOW
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES MODERATE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...REACHING NORMAL BY SUNDAY EVENING. TEMPS A BLEND OF
MAV/MET AND SREF OVERNIGHT/MOSGUIDE DURING THE DAY. BY THE TIME
PRECIP RETURNS TO WRN ZONES SATURDAY EVENING...IT SHOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN. NOT EXPECTING FREEZING RAIN AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE
WARM NOSE DESCENDING...WILL HAVE TO LOOKOUT FOR THAT THOUGH. DRY
EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WITH SWLY/SLY FLOW 10 MPH OR SO
MAINTAINED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IN DECENT GRADIENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OFFSHORE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SET UP A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BRING IN
WARMER TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY...AND CROSS THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE REGION ITS NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN.
SOME WET SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES WITH ANY
LEFTOVER SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE AND WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS MONDAY EVENING. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT ONCE
TEMPERATURES DROP...BUT AIRMASS WILL BE MARGINAL SO ANY ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL IS QUESTIONABLE.

A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE /I.E. 1040 MB/ WILL BUILD TO THE
NORTH TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT STALLS TO THE SOUTH...THEN SLOWLY RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR COLD AIR DAMMING
IN THE MODELS...WITH EVEN LOWER RESOLUTION GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS OVER MUCH OF THE
SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. ECMWF IS WARMER AT 850
MB AND DEEPER WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST RESULTING IN MORE
PRECIPITATION AND SUGGESTING A HIGHER ICE POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY WEST
OF THE METRO. GFS IS COLDER AT 850 MB AND WEAKER WITH LOW PRESSURE
TO THE WEST SUGGESTING LIGHTER QPF AND A MORE GENERIC WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW AND RAIN. FOR NOW...STICKING WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW...BUT
WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO MONITOR AND FINE-TUNE OVER THE COMING DAYS
AS POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR OVERRUNNING PRECIP. OVER COLD AIR TO
RESULT IN WINTRY PRECIP OVER AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. LEFT OUT OF HWO FOR NOW BECAUSE 30 PERCENT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT THERE THAT WE WILL BE ISSUING HAZARDS GIVEN LARGE
SPREAD IN TIMING/TEMPERATURES.

MODELS/ENSEMBLES BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER THIS TIME IN RESPONSE TO A
PATTERN CHANGE ALOFT WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW OF PACIFIC ORIGIN TAKING
HOLD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. NW FLOW WITH OCNL GUSTS
OVERNIGHT...BCMG MORE PERSISTENT AFTR 13Z FRIDAY.

VFR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CALM FRIDAY NIGHT THEN
SWLY/SLY FLOW INCREASES TO 10-15 KT SATURDAY...10 KT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY W/ S FLOW 10-15 KTS. SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCTD
SHWRS MON EVE W/ FROPA. WINDS BECOME W AND DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10
KTS MON. FLOW BECOMES N THEN E BEHIND FROPA TUE W/ SUB-VFR PSBL IN
PCPN LATE TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH GUSTS
20-25 KTS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRES OVERHEAD FRIDAY EVENING...WITH RETURN FLOW INCREASING
SATURDAY. SLY CHANNELING EXPECTED WITH SCA LIKELY BY LATE MORNING
SATURDAY CONTINUING WELL INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS
LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
SLOWLY CROSS THE WATERS LATE MONDAY. WINDS DIMINISH AS THE FRONT
PASSES...THEN STALLS NEAR THE WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ503.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ501-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KLWX 280146
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
846 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH BUILDS IN TONIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT WHILE
THE AREA REMAINS UNDERNEATH UPPR LVL TROUGH AS IT SLOWLY SWINGS TO
THE EAST. ALREADY SEEING SCT-NUM SNOW SHOWERS OVR AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AS INDICATED BY BOTH RADAR
REFLECTIVITY AND OBSERVER REPORTS WITH AROUND 1 INCH HAVING BEEN
REPORTED THUS FAR. NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP UPSLOPING SNOW
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WX
ADVISORY CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN HIGHLAND...GRANT AND
PENDLETON. IN ADDITION...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE
TROUGH...COULD SEE ISO-SCT FLURRIES OCCUR OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AROUND THE BALTIMORE AND DC METRO AREAS THRU 05Z THOUGH
NO ACCUMS EXPECTED. FCST MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS ALONG
THE ALLEGHENY FRONT TO THE LOW 30S NEAR WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. ANY LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WILL DIMINISH AND SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...IT WILL BE COLD DUE TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE
BUILDING HIGH. MAX TEMPS WILL BE BELOW CLIMO...RANGING FROM THE
20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT AND
SOUTHERN MARYLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
PATTERN SHIFT AS WRN CONUS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS AN UPR TROUGH SHIFTS
SOUTH INTO THE PAC NW. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EAST FROM
THE MIDWEST STATES AND INTO THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. 00Z ECMWF/12Z GFS
SUGGEST LIFT FROM THIS FRONT WILL CAUSE PRECIP INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS FRIDAY NIGHT. IN SPITE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION...THERMAL
PROFILES COOL ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW. LIMITED POPS FOR NOW TO THE NWRN
THREE ZONES (WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT). MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
ELSEWHERE...THOUGH PLENTY OF COLD AIR AND LITTLE MIXING WILL ALLOW
FOR MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S INLAND...UPR 20S NEAR SHORE.

WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IN SWLY FLOW
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES MODERATE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...REACHING NORMAL BY SUNDAY EVENING. TEMPS A BLEND OF
MAV/MET AND SREF OVERNIGHT/MOSGUIDE DURING THE DAY. BY THE TIME
PRECIP RETURNS TO WRN ZONES SATURDAY EVENING...IT SHOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN. NOT EXPECTING FREEZING RAIN AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE
WARM NOSE DESCENDING...WILL HAVE TO LOOKOUT FOR THAT THOUGH. DRY
EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WITH SWLY/SLY FLOW 10 MPH OR SO
MAINTAINED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IN DECENT GRADIENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OFFSHORE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SET UP A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BRING IN
WARMER TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY...AND CROSS THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE REGION ITS NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN.
SOME WET SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES WITH ANY
LEFTOVER SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE AND WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS MONDAY EVENING. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT ONCE
TEMPERATURES DROP...BUT AIRMASS WILL BE MARGINAL SO ANY ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL IS QUESTIONABLE.

A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE /I.E. 1040 MB/ WILL BUILD TO THE
NORTH TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT STALLS TO THE SOUTH...THEN SLOWLY RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR COLD AIR DAMMING
IN THE MODELS...WITH EVEN LOWER RESOLUTION GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS OVER MUCH OF THE
SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. ECMWF IS WARMER AT 850
MB AND DEEPER WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST RESULTING IN MORE
PRECIPITATION AND SUGGESTING A HIGHER ICE POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY WEST
OF THE METRO. GFS IS COLDER AT 850 MB AND WEAKER WITH LOW PRESSURE
TO THE WEST SUGGESTING LIGHTER QPF AND A MORE GENERIC WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW AND RAIN. FOR NOW...STICKING WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW...BUT
WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO MONITOR AND FINE-TUNE OVER THE COMING DAYS
AS POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR OVERRUNNING PRECIP. OVER COLD AIR TO
RESULT IN WINTRY PRECIP OVER AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. LEFT OUT OF HWO FOR NOW BECAUSE 30 PERCENT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT THERE THAT WE WILL BE ISSUING HAZARDS GIVEN LARGE
SPREAD IN TIMING/TEMPERATURES.

MODELS/ENSEMBLES BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER THIS TIME IN RESPONSE TO A
PATTERN CHANGE ALOFT WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW OF PACIFIC ORIGIN TAKING
HOLD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. NW FLOW WITH OCNL GUSTS
OVERNIGHT...BCMG MORE PERSISTENT AFTR 13Z FRIDAY.

VFR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CALM FRIDAY NIGHT THEN
SWLY/SLY FLOW INCREASES TO 10-15 KT SATURDAY...10 KT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY W/ S FLOW 10-15 KTS. SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCTD
SHWRS MON EVE W/ FROPA. WINDS BECOME W AND DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10
KTS MON. FLOW BECOMES N THEN E BEHIND FROPA TUE W/ SUB-VFR PSBL IN
PCPN LATE TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH GUSTS
20-25 KTS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRES OVERHEAD FRIDAY EVENING...WITH RETURN FLOW INCREASING
SATURDAY. SLY CHANNELING EXPECTED WITH SCA LIKELY BY LATE MORNING
SATURDAY CONTINUING WELL INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS
LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
SLOWLY CROSS THE WATERS LATE MONDAY. WINDS DIMINISH AS THE FRONT
PASSES...THEN STALLS NEAR THE WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ503.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ501-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KLWX 280146
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
846 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH BUILDS IN TONIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT WHILE
THE AREA REMAINS UNDERNEATH UPPR LVL TROUGH AS IT SLOWLY SWINGS TO
THE EAST. ALREADY SEEING SCT-NUM SNOW SHOWERS OVR AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AS INDICATED BY BOTH RADAR
REFLECTIVITY AND OBSERVER REPORTS WITH AROUND 1 INCH HAVING BEEN
REPORTED THUS FAR. NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP UPSLOPING SNOW
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WX
ADVISORY CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN HIGHLAND...GRANT AND
PENDLETON. IN ADDITION...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE
TROUGH...COULD SEE ISO-SCT FLURRIES OCCUR OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AROUND THE BALTIMORE AND DC METRO AREAS THRU 05Z THOUGH
NO ACCUMS EXPECTED. FCST MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS ALONG
THE ALLEGHENY FRONT TO THE LOW 30S NEAR WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. ANY LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WILL DIMINISH AND SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...IT WILL BE COLD DUE TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE
BUILDING HIGH. MAX TEMPS WILL BE BELOW CLIMO...RANGING FROM THE
20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT AND
SOUTHERN MARYLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
PATTERN SHIFT AS WRN CONUS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS AN UPR TROUGH SHIFTS
SOUTH INTO THE PAC NW. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EAST FROM
THE MIDWEST STATES AND INTO THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. 00Z ECMWF/12Z GFS
SUGGEST LIFT FROM THIS FRONT WILL CAUSE PRECIP INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS FRIDAY NIGHT. IN SPITE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION...THERMAL
PROFILES COOL ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW. LIMITED POPS FOR NOW TO THE NWRN
THREE ZONES (WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT). MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
ELSEWHERE...THOUGH PLENTY OF COLD AIR AND LITTLE MIXING WILL ALLOW
FOR MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S INLAND...UPR 20S NEAR SHORE.

WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IN SWLY FLOW
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES MODERATE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...REACHING NORMAL BY SUNDAY EVENING. TEMPS A BLEND OF
MAV/MET AND SREF OVERNIGHT/MOSGUIDE DURING THE DAY. BY THE TIME
PRECIP RETURNS TO WRN ZONES SATURDAY EVENING...IT SHOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN. NOT EXPECTING FREEZING RAIN AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE
WARM NOSE DESCENDING...WILL HAVE TO LOOKOUT FOR THAT THOUGH. DRY
EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WITH SWLY/SLY FLOW 10 MPH OR SO
MAINTAINED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IN DECENT GRADIENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OFFSHORE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SET UP A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BRING IN
WARMER TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY...AND CROSS THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE REGION ITS NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN.
SOME WET SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES WITH ANY
LEFTOVER SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE AND WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS MONDAY EVENING. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT ONCE
TEMPERATURES DROP...BUT AIRMASS WILL BE MARGINAL SO ANY ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL IS QUESTIONABLE.

A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE /I.E. 1040 MB/ WILL BUILD TO THE
NORTH TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT STALLS TO THE SOUTH...THEN SLOWLY RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR COLD AIR DAMMING
IN THE MODELS...WITH EVEN LOWER RESOLUTION GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS OVER MUCH OF THE
SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. ECMWF IS WARMER AT 850
MB AND DEEPER WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST RESULTING IN MORE
PRECIPITATION AND SUGGESTING A HIGHER ICE POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY WEST
OF THE METRO. GFS IS COLDER AT 850 MB AND WEAKER WITH LOW PRESSURE
TO THE WEST SUGGESTING LIGHTER QPF AND A MORE GENERIC WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW AND RAIN. FOR NOW...STICKING WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW...BUT
WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO MONITOR AND FINE-TUNE OVER THE COMING DAYS
AS POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR OVERRUNNING PRECIP. OVER COLD AIR TO
RESULT IN WINTRY PRECIP OVER AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. LEFT OUT OF HWO FOR NOW BECAUSE 30 PERCENT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT THERE THAT WE WILL BE ISSUING HAZARDS GIVEN LARGE
SPREAD IN TIMING/TEMPERATURES.

MODELS/ENSEMBLES BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER THIS TIME IN RESPONSE TO A
PATTERN CHANGE ALOFT WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW OF PACIFIC ORIGIN TAKING
HOLD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. NW FLOW WITH OCNL GUSTS
OVERNIGHT...BCMG MORE PERSISTENT AFTR 13Z FRIDAY.

VFR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CALM FRIDAY NIGHT THEN
SWLY/SLY FLOW INCREASES TO 10-15 KT SATURDAY...10 KT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY W/ S FLOW 10-15 KTS. SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCTD
SHWRS MON EVE W/ FROPA. WINDS BECOME W AND DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10
KTS MON. FLOW BECOMES N THEN E BEHIND FROPA TUE W/ SUB-VFR PSBL IN
PCPN LATE TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH GUSTS
20-25 KTS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRES OVERHEAD FRIDAY EVENING...WITH RETURN FLOW INCREASING
SATURDAY. SLY CHANNELING EXPECTED WITH SCA LIKELY BY LATE MORNING
SATURDAY CONTINUING WELL INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS
LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
SLOWLY CROSS THE WATERS LATE MONDAY. WINDS DIMINISH AS THE FRONT
PASSES...THEN STALLS NEAR THE WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ503.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ501-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KLWX 280146
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
846 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH BUILDS IN TONIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT WHILE
THE AREA REMAINS UNDERNEATH UPPR LVL TROUGH AS IT SLOWLY SWINGS TO
THE EAST. ALREADY SEEING SCT-NUM SNOW SHOWERS OVR AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AS INDICATED BY BOTH RADAR
REFLECTIVITY AND OBSERVER REPORTS WITH AROUND 1 INCH HAVING BEEN
REPORTED THUS FAR. NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP UPSLOPING SNOW
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WX
ADVISORY CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN HIGHLAND...GRANT AND
PENDLETON. IN ADDITION...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE
TROUGH...COULD SEE ISO-SCT FLURRIES OCCUR OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AROUND THE BALTIMORE AND DC METRO AREAS THRU 05Z THOUGH
NO ACCUMS EXPECTED. FCST MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS ALONG
THE ALLEGHENY FRONT TO THE LOW 30S NEAR WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. ANY LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WILL DIMINISH AND SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...IT WILL BE COLD DUE TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE
BUILDING HIGH. MAX TEMPS WILL BE BELOW CLIMO...RANGING FROM THE
20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT AND
SOUTHERN MARYLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
PATTERN SHIFT AS WRN CONUS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS AN UPR TROUGH SHIFTS
SOUTH INTO THE PAC NW. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EAST FROM
THE MIDWEST STATES AND INTO THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. 00Z ECMWF/12Z GFS
SUGGEST LIFT FROM THIS FRONT WILL CAUSE PRECIP INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS FRIDAY NIGHT. IN SPITE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION...THERMAL
PROFILES COOL ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW. LIMITED POPS FOR NOW TO THE NWRN
THREE ZONES (WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT). MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
ELSEWHERE...THOUGH PLENTY OF COLD AIR AND LITTLE MIXING WILL ALLOW
FOR MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S INLAND...UPR 20S NEAR SHORE.

WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IN SWLY FLOW
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES MODERATE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...REACHING NORMAL BY SUNDAY EVENING. TEMPS A BLEND OF
MAV/MET AND SREF OVERNIGHT/MOSGUIDE DURING THE DAY. BY THE TIME
PRECIP RETURNS TO WRN ZONES SATURDAY EVENING...IT SHOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN. NOT EXPECTING FREEZING RAIN AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE
WARM NOSE DESCENDING...WILL HAVE TO LOOKOUT FOR THAT THOUGH. DRY
EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WITH SWLY/SLY FLOW 10 MPH OR SO
MAINTAINED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IN DECENT GRADIENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OFFSHORE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SET UP A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BRING IN
WARMER TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY...AND CROSS THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE REGION ITS NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN.
SOME WET SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES WITH ANY
LEFTOVER SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE AND WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS MONDAY EVENING. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT ONCE
TEMPERATURES DROP...BUT AIRMASS WILL BE MARGINAL SO ANY ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL IS QUESTIONABLE.

A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE /I.E. 1040 MB/ WILL BUILD TO THE
NORTH TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT STALLS TO THE SOUTH...THEN SLOWLY RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR COLD AIR DAMMING
IN THE MODELS...WITH EVEN LOWER RESOLUTION GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS OVER MUCH OF THE
SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. ECMWF IS WARMER AT 850
MB AND DEEPER WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST RESULTING IN MORE
PRECIPITATION AND SUGGESTING A HIGHER ICE POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY WEST
OF THE METRO. GFS IS COLDER AT 850 MB AND WEAKER WITH LOW PRESSURE
TO THE WEST SUGGESTING LIGHTER QPF AND A MORE GENERIC WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW AND RAIN. FOR NOW...STICKING WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW...BUT
WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO MONITOR AND FINE-TUNE OVER THE COMING DAYS
AS POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR OVERRUNNING PRECIP. OVER COLD AIR TO
RESULT IN WINTRY PRECIP OVER AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. LEFT OUT OF HWO FOR NOW BECAUSE 30 PERCENT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT THERE THAT WE WILL BE ISSUING HAZARDS GIVEN LARGE
SPREAD IN TIMING/TEMPERATURES.

MODELS/ENSEMBLES BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER THIS TIME IN RESPONSE TO A
PATTERN CHANGE ALOFT WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW OF PACIFIC ORIGIN TAKING
HOLD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. NW FLOW WITH OCNL GUSTS
OVERNIGHT...BCMG MORE PERSISTENT AFTR 13Z FRIDAY.

VFR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CALM FRIDAY NIGHT THEN
SWLY/SLY FLOW INCREASES TO 10-15 KT SATURDAY...10 KT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY W/ S FLOW 10-15 KTS. SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCTD
SHWRS MON EVE W/ FROPA. WINDS BECOME W AND DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10
KTS MON. FLOW BECOMES N THEN E BEHIND FROPA TUE W/ SUB-VFR PSBL IN
PCPN LATE TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH GUSTS
20-25 KTS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRES OVERHEAD FRIDAY EVENING...WITH RETURN FLOW INCREASING
SATURDAY. SLY CHANNELING EXPECTED WITH SCA LIKELY BY LATE MORNING
SATURDAY CONTINUING WELL INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS
LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
SLOWLY CROSS THE WATERS LATE MONDAY. WINDS DIMINISH AS THE FRONT
PASSES...THEN STALLS NEAR THE WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ503.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ501-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KLWX 280146
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
846 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH BUILDS IN TONIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT WHILE
THE AREA REMAINS UNDERNEATH UPPR LVL TROUGH AS IT SLOWLY SWINGS TO
THE EAST. ALREADY SEEING SCT-NUM SNOW SHOWERS OVR AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AS INDICATED BY BOTH RADAR
REFLECTIVITY AND OBSERVER REPORTS WITH AROUND 1 INCH HAVING BEEN
REPORTED THUS FAR. NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP UPSLOPING SNOW
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WX
ADVISORY CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN HIGHLAND...GRANT AND
PENDLETON. IN ADDITION...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE
TROUGH...COULD SEE ISO-SCT FLURRIES OCCUR OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AROUND THE BALTIMORE AND DC METRO AREAS THRU 05Z THOUGH
NO ACCUMS EXPECTED. FCST MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS ALONG
THE ALLEGHENY FRONT TO THE LOW 30S NEAR WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. ANY LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WILL DIMINISH AND SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...IT WILL BE COLD DUE TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE
BUILDING HIGH. MAX TEMPS WILL BE BELOW CLIMO...RANGING FROM THE
20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT AND
SOUTHERN MARYLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
PATTERN SHIFT AS WRN CONUS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS AN UPR TROUGH SHIFTS
SOUTH INTO THE PAC NW. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EAST FROM
THE MIDWEST STATES AND INTO THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. 00Z ECMWF/12Z GFS
SUGGEST LIFT FROM THIS FRONT WILL CAUSE PRECIP INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS FRIDAY NIGHT. IN SPITE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION...THERMAL
PROFILES COOL ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW. LIMITED POPS FOR NOW TO THE NWRN
THREE ZONES (WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT). MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
ELSEWHERE...THOUGH PLENTY OF COLD AIR AND LITTLE MIXING WILL ALLOW
FOR MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S INLAND...UPR 20S NEAR SHORE.

WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IN SWLY FLOW
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES MODERATE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...REACHING NORMAL BY SUNDAY EVENING. TEMPS A BLEND OF
MAV/MET AND SREF OVERNIGHT/MOSGUIDE DURING THE DAY. BY THE TIME
PRECIP RETURNS TO WRN ZONES SATURDAY EVENING...IT SHOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN. NOT EXPECTING FREEZING RAIN AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE
WARM NOSE DESCENDING...WILL HAVE TO LOOKOUT FOR THAT THOUGH. DRY
EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WITH SWLY/SLY FLOW 10 MPH OR SO
MAINTAINED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IN DECENT GRADIENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OFFSHORE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SET UP A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BRING IN
WARMER TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY...AND CROSS THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE REGION ITS NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN.
SOME WET SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES WITH ANY
LEFTOVER SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE AND WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS MONDAY EVENING. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT ONCE
TEMPERATURES DROP...BUT AIRMASS WILL BE MARGINAL SO ANY ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL IS QUESTIONABLE.

A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE /I.E. 1040 MB/ WILL BUILD TO THE
NORTH TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT STALLS TO THE SOUTH...THEN SLOWLY RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR COLD AIR DAMMING
IN THE MODELS...WITH EVEN LOWER RESOLUTION GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS OVER MUCH OF THE
SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. ECMWF IS WARMER AT 850
MB AND DEEPER WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST RESULTING IN MORE
PRECIPITATION AND SUGGESTING A HIGHER ICE POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY WEST
OF THE METRO. GFS IS COLDER AT 850 MB AND WEAKER WITH LOW PRESSURE
TO THE WEST SUGGESTING LIGHTER QPF AND A MORE GENERIC WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW AND RAIN. FOR NOW...STICKING WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW...BUT
WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO MONITOR AND FINE-TUNE OVER THE COMING DAYS
AS POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR OVERRUNNING PRECIP. OVER COLD AIR TO
RESULT IN WINTRY PRECIP OVER AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. LEFT OUT OF HWO FOR NOW BECAUSE 30 PERCENT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT THERE THAT WE WILL BE ISSUING HAZARDS GIVEN LARGE
SPREAD IN TIMING/TEMPERATURES.

MODELS/ENSEMBLES BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER THIS TIME IN RESPONSE TO A
PATTERN CHANGE ALOFT WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW OF PACIFIC ORIGIN TAKING
HOLD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. NW FLOW WITH OCNL GUSTS
OVERNIGHT...BCMG MORE PERSISTENT AFTR 13Z FRIDAY.

VFR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CALM FRIDAY NIGHT THEN
SWLY/SLY FLOW INCREASES TO 10-15 KT SATURDAY...10 KT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY W/ S FLOW 10-15 KTS. SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCTD
SHWRS MON EVE W/ FROPA. WINDS BECOME W AND DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10
KTS MON. FLOW BECOMES N THEN E BEHIND FROPA TUE W/ SUB-VFR PSBL IN
PCPN LATE TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH GUSTS
20-25 KTS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRES OVERHEAD FRIDAY EVENING...WITH RETURN FLOW INCREASING
SATURDAY. SLY CHANNELING EXPECTED WITH SCA LIKELY BY LATE MORNING
SATURDAY CONTINUING WELL INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS
LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
SLOWLY CROSS THE WATERS LATE MONDAY. WINDS DIMINISH AS THE FRONT
PASSES...THEN STALLS NEAR THE WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ503.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ501-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KLWX 280146
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
846 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH BUILDS IN TONIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT WHILE
THE AREA REMAINS UNDERNEATH UPPR LVL TROUGH AS IT SLOWLY SWINGS TO
THE EAST. ALREADY SEEING SCT-NUM SNOW SHOWERS OVR AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AS INDICATED BY BOTH RADAR
REFLECTIVITY AND OBSERVER REPORTS WITH AROUND 1 INCH HAVING BEEN
REPORTED THUS FAR. NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP UPSLOPING SNOW
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WX
ADVISORY CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN HIGHLAND...GRANT AND
PENDLETON. IN ADDITION...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE
TROUGH...COULD SEE ISO-SCT FLURRIES OCCUR OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AROUND THE BALTIMORE AND DC METRO AREAS THRU 05Z THOUGH
NO ACCUMS EXPECTED. FCST MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS ALONG
THE ALLEGHENY FRONT TO THE LOW 30S NEAR WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. ANY LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WILL DIMINISH AND SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...IT WILL BE COLD DUE TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE
BUILDING HIGH. MAX TEMPS WILL BE BELOW CLIMO...RANGING FROM THE
20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT AND
SOUTHERN MARYLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
PATTERN SHIFT AS WRN CONUS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS AN UPR TROUGH SHIFTS
SOUTH INTO THE PAC NW. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EAST FROM
THE MIDWEST STATES AND INTO THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. 00Z ECMWF/12Z GFS
SUGGEST LIFT FROM THIS FRONT WILL CAUSE PRECIP INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS FRIDAY NIGHT. IN SPITE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION...THERMAL
PROFILES COOL ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW. LIMITED POPS FOR NOW TO THE NWRN
THREE ZONES (WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT). MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
ELSEWHERE...THOUGH PLENTY OF COLD AIR AND LITTLE MIXING WILL ALLOW
FOR MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S INLAND...UPR 20S NEAR SHORE.

WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IN SWLY FLOW
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES MODERATE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...REACHING NORMAL BY SUNDAY EVENING. TEMPS A BLEND OF
MAV/MET AND SREF OVERNIGHT/MOSGUIDE DURING THE DAY. BY THE TIME
PRECIP RETURNS TO WRN ZONES SATURDAY EVENING...IT SHOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN. NOT EXPECTING FREEZING RAIN AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE
WARM NOSE DESCENDING...WILL HAVE TO LOOKOUT FOR THAT THOUGH. DRY
EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WITH SWLY/SLY FLOW 10 MPH OR SO
MAINTAINED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IN DECENT GRADIENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OFFSHORE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SET UP A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BRING IN
WARMER TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY...AND CROSS THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE REGION ITS NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN.
SOME WET SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES WITH ANY
LEFTOVER SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE AND WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS MONDAY EVENING. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT ONCE
TEMPERATURES DROP...BUT AIRMASS WILL BE MARGINAL SO ANY ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL IS QUESTIONABLE.

A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE /I.E. 1040 MB/ WILL BUILD TO THE
NORTH TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT STALLS TO THE SOUTH...THEN SLOWLY RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR COLD AIR DAMMING
IN THE MODELS...WITH EVEN LOWER RESOLUTION GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS OVER MUCH OF THE
SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. ECMWF IS WARMER AT 850
MB AND DEEPER WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST RESULTING IN MORE
PRECIPITATION AND SUGGESTING A HIGHER ICE POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY WEST
OF THE METRO. GFS IS COLDER AT 850 MB AND WEAKER WITH LOW PRESSURE
TO THE WEST SUGGESTING LIGHTER QPF AND A MORE GENERIC WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW AND RAIN. FOR NOW...STICKING WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW...BUT
WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO MONITOR AND FINE-TUNE OVER THE COMING DAYS
AS POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR OVERRUNNING PRECIP. OVER COLD AIR TO
RESULT IN WINTRY PRECIP OVER AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. LEFT OUT OF HWO FOR NOW BECAUSE 30 PERCENT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT THERE THAT WE WILL BE ISSUING HAZARDS GIVEN LARGE
SPREAD IN TIMING/TEMPERATURES.

MODELS/ENSEMBLES BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER THIS TIME IN RESPONSE TO A
PATTERN CHANGE ALOFT WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW OF PACIFIC ORIGIN TAKING
HOLD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. NW FLOW WITH OCNL GUSTS
OVERNIGHT...BCMG MORE PERSISTENT AFTR 13Z FRIDAY.

VFR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CALM FRIDAY NIGHT THEN
SWLY/SLY FLOW INCREASES TO 10-15 KT SATURDAY...10 KT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY W/ S FLOW 10-15 KTS. SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCTD
SHWRS MON EVE W/ FROPA. WINDS BECOME W AND DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10
KTS MON. FLOW BECOMES N THEN E BEHIND FROPA TUE W/ SUB-VFR PSBL IN
PCPN LATE TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH GUSTS
20-25 KTS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRES OVERHEAD FRIDAY EVENING...WITH RETURN FLOW INCREASING
SATURDAY. SLY CHANNELING EXPECTED WITH SCA LIKELY BY LATE MORNING
SATURDAY CONTINUING WELL INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS
LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
SLOWLY CROSS THE WATERS LATE MONDAY. WINDS DIMINISH AS THE FRONT
PASSES...THEN STALLS NEAR THE WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ503.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ501-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280105
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
805 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH FARTHER OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH BECOMES
CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SFC LOW PRESSURE NOW ANALYZED ALONG THE ERN NC COAST...AND PROGGED
TO SHIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. STILL SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACRS SOUTHERN/SE VA...WITH SKIES PARTIALLY
CLEARING. HAD SOME REPORTS OF SLEET WITH THE BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH SE VA...BUT SFC TEMPS ARE IN THE 40S SO NO
IMPACTS WILL OCCUR. WILL MAINTAIN CHC TO LIKELY POPS FOR A FEW
MORE HRS...TAPERING OFF BY 00Z OR SHORTLY AFTERWARDS. SKIES BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR...BUT NW WINDS WILL KEEP READINGS FROM DROPPING OFF
AS MUCH AS THEY OTHERWISE WOULD...ESP NEAR THE COAST. LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MID 20S WEST OF I-95 TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A QUIET PERIOD EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL ON FRI EVEN UNDER NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE. THIS WILL
RESULT FROM STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TN VALLEY...BUILDING
EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS. NW WINDS AVERAGING 10-15 MPH IN THE
MORNING WILL GENLY BECOME LIGHTER BY AFTN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. BLENDED GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE FOR HIGHS GIVEN 850 MB
TEMPS PROGGED TO BE -8 TO -10 C. THIS WILL YIELD HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 40S THROUGHOUT...MID 40S IN NE NC AND IT MAY NOT GET OUT
OF THE UPPER 30S ACRS THE FAR NORTH. THANKFULLY...THE SUN WILL
FINALLY SHINE. NAM/GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY FRI NIGHT...ALLOWING THE UPPER FLOW
TO FLATTEN OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS BRINGS AN INCREASE IN MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS LATE FRI/FRI NIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACRS THE NORTH.
STILL EXPECT A COLD NIGHT...AS TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY DROP IN THE
EVENING THEN LEVEL OFF THEREAFTER. LOWS MAINLY 25-30 F...NOT
REALLY ANY WARMER NEAR THE COAST DUE TO LIGHT FLOW ON THE NORTHERN
SIDE OF THE SFC HIGH. SKIES AVG PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
NORTH...AND PARTLY SUNNY SOUTH ON SAT...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS IN
THE AFTN. TEMPS MODERATE A BIT ON SAT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO
THE SSW. STILL A BIT BELOW AVG WITH HIGHS 50-55 F CENTRAL AND
SOUTH AND IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WILL SEND A COUPLE OF FAST MOVING COLD
FRONTS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
RIDGING ALONG THE LATITUDE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA WILL
KEEP HEIGHTS HIGH ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE SOUTHWARD PENETRATION OF
ARCTIC AIR.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MID LEVEL MOISTURE FOLLOWING THE
FRONT MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST WITH A CLEARING SKY
FROM THE WEST BUT SLGT CHC POPS CONTINUING TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG
TERM. HIGHS IN THE UPR 50S NE TO MID 60S SW MONDAY COOL TO THE MID
40S NW TO MID 50S SE TUESDAY. HIGHS IN THE 50S ARE FORECAST
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOWS IN THE 40S MONDAY MORNING LOWER TO THE
UPR 30S TO MID 40S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. UPPER WAVE
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW CONTINUE TO PUSH FARTHER OFF THE SE
COAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL HELP CREATE
SKC OVERNIGHT INTO FRI AFTN. NW WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 20KT LATE
FRI MORNING AS CAA CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA.

OUTLOOK... UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE...VFR CONDS AND
DRY WX IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OFF THE ERN NC COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS
STRONG ~1034MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. NLY FLOW
OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AVG 10-15 KT. SEAS AVG 3-5
FT...HIGHEST IN THE NRN COASTAL ZONES. STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN TANDEM WITH CAA WILL RESULT IN SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE
WATERS TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. STRONGEST CAA ARRIVES THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT...WITH NWLY WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT OVER THE BAY/SOUND/COASTAL WATERS. 15-20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT OVER THE ERN VA RIVERS. SEAS BUILD TO 4-6 FT WITH
WAVES 3-4 FT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FRI MORNING AS
CAA WANES AND NWLY WINDS SUBSIDE. HEADLINES RUN THRU MID MORNING FOR
THE RIVERS AND EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE BAY. SEAS REMAIN 4-5 FT THRU
THE DAY...WITH HEADLINES EXTENDED THRU 6PM FRI. THEREAFTER...HIGH
PRESSURE AND SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL THRU THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS MON-MON EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND MON NIGHT-TUES...RIDGING OVER CNTRL VA.
RESULTANT N-NE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO NEAR SCA CONDITIONS MON
NIGHT-TUES AS SEAS BUILD TO 4-5 FT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO CROSS THE WATERS WEDS NIGHT INTO THURS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...SAM/LSA
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...JDM/SAM







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280105
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
805 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH FARTHER OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH BECOMES
CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SFC LOW PRESSURE NOW ANALYZED ALONG THE ERN NC COAST...AND PROGGED
TO SHIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. STILL SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACRS SOUTHERN/SE VA...WITH SKIES PARTIALLY
CLEARING. HAD SOME REPORTS OF SLEET WITH THE BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH SE VA...BUT SFC TEMPS ARE IN THE 40S SO NO
IMPACTS WILL OCCUR. WILL MAINTAIN CHC TO LIKELY POPS FOR A FEW
MORE HRS...TAPERING OFF BY 00Z OR SHORTLY AFTERWARDS. SKIES BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR...BUT NW WINDS WILL KEEP READINGS FROM DROPPING OFF
AS MUCH AS THEY OTHERWISE WOULD...ESP NEAR THE COAST. LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MID 20S WEST OF I-95 TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A QUIET PERIOD EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL ON FRI EVEN UNDER NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE. THIS WILL
RESULT FROM STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TN VALLEY...BUILDING
EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS. NW WINDS AVERAGING 10-15 MPH IN THE
MORNING WILL GENLY BECOME LIGHTER BY AFTN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. BLENDED GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE FOR HIGHS GIVEN 850 MB
TEMPS PROGGED TO BE -8 TO -10 C. THIS WILL YIELD HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 40S THROUGHOUT...MID 40S IN NE NC AND IT MAY NOT GET OUT
OF THE UPPER 30S ACRS THE FAR NORTH. THANKFULLY...THE SUN WILL
FINALLY SHINE. NAM/GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY FRI NIGHT...ALLOWING THE UPPER FLOW
TO FLATTEN OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS BRINGS AN INCREASE IN MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS LATE FRI/FRI NIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACRS THE NORTH.
STILL EXPECT A COLD NIGHT...AS TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY DROP IN THE
EVENING THEN LEVEL OFF THEREAFTER. LOWS MAINLY 25-30 F...NOT
REALLY ANY WARMER NEAR THE COAST DUE TO LIGHT FLOW ON THE NORTHERN
SIDE OF THE SFC HIGH. SKIES AVG PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
NORTH...AND PARTLY SUNNY SOUTH ON SAT...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS IN
THE AFTN. TEMPS MODERATE A BIT ON SAT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO
THE SSW. STILL A BIT BELOW AVG WITH HIGHS 50-55 F CENTRAL AND
SOUTH AND IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WILL SEND A COUPLE OF FAST MOVING COLD
FRONTS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
RIDGING ALONG THE LATITUDE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA WILL
KEEP HEIGHTS HIGH ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE SOUTHWARD PENETRATION OF
ARCTIC AIR.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MID LEVEL MOISTURE FOLLOWING THE
FRONT MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST WITH A CLEARING SKY
FROM THE WEST BUT SLGT CHC POPS CONTINUING TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG
TERM. HIGHS IN THE UPR 50S NE TO MID 60S SW MONDAY COOL TO THE MID
40S NW TO MID 50S SE TUESDAY. HIGHS IN THE 50S ARE FORECAST
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOWS IN THE 40S MONDAY MORNING LOWER TO THE
UPR 30S TO MID 40S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. UPPER WAVE
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW CONTINUE TO PUSH FARTHER OFF THE SE
COAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL HELP CREATE
SKC OVERNIGHT INTO FRI AFTN. NW WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 20KT LATE
FRI MORNING AS CAA CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA.

OUTLOOK... UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE...VFR CONDS AND
DRY WX IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OFF THE ERN NC COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS
STRONG ~1034MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. NLY FLOW
OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AVG 10-15 KT. SEAS AVG 3-5
FT...HIGHEST IN THE NRN COASTAL ZONES. STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN TANDEM WITH CAA WILL RESULT IN SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE
WATERS TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. STRONGEST CAA ARRIVES THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT...WITH NWLY WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT OVER THE BAY/SOUND/COASTAL WATERS. 15-20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT OVER THE ERN VA RIVERS. SEAS BUILD TO 4-6 FT WITH
WAVES 3-4 FT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FRI MORNING AS
CAA WANES AND NWLY WINDS SUBSIDE. HEADLINES RUN THRU MID MORNING FOR
THE RIVERS AND EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE BAY. SEAS REMAIN 4-5 FT THRU
THE DAY...WITH HEADLINES EXTENDED THRU 6PM FRI. THEREAFTER...HIGH
PRESSURE AND SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL THRU THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS MON-MON EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND MON NIGHT-TUES...RIDGING OVER CNTRL VA.
RESULTANT N-NE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO NEAR SCA CONDITIONS MON
NIGHT-TUES AS SEAS BUILD TO 4-5 FT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO CROSS THE WATERS WEDS NIGHT INTO THURS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...SAM/LSA
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...JDM/SAM






000
FXUS61 KRNK 280005
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
705 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION AND BRING COLDER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION...ALONG WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. AS
THE HIGH SLIPS OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
AND WE WILL HAVE FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER BACK TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM EST THURSDAY...

EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IN EASTERN U.S. TROUGH COMBINING WITH NEXT
SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR AND ASSOCIATED CAA/UPSLOPE FLOW TO TRIGGER
-SHSN THROUGH THE ALLEGHANYS. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
WITH YET ANOTHER WEAK UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TO APPROACH LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRI. SINCE -SHSN HAVE BEEN REPORTED FOR SEVERAL
HOURS AS FAR EAST AS BCB AND OTHER NEARBY SITES...HAVE INCREASED
POPS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO ACCOUNT FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF
-SHSN. MOST WILL BE FLURRIES...BUT AT TIMES...NOTING BANDING OF
PCPN ON RADAR...THERE WILL BE SOME HEAVIER -SHSN...ESPECIALLY
UPSLOPE AREAS OF EASTERN WV/ALLEGHANYS. POPS VARY FROM LIKELY NW
GREENBRIER WHERE AN 1 OR SO OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE
OVERNIGHT...TO 0 EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. T/TD APPEAR TO BE ON
TRACK...SO NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

AS OF 256 PM EST THURSDAY...

UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT BUT NOT BEFORE A
PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS BRINGS SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FAVORED
UPSLOPE AREAS OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE 1 OR 2 INCHES IN WESTERN
GREENBRIER ALTHOUGH LIKELY NOT ENOUGH FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA. MAY
NEED TO ISSUE AN SPS OR TWO FOR MORE INTENSE SNOW BANDS. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE IN FULL FORCE OVERNIGHT AS H85 TEMPS DROP FROM
-2C TO -5C RANGE THIS AFTERNOON TO -8C TO -13C BY FRIDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN UP MOST OF THE NIGHT PREVENTING IDEAL
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS BUT STILL EXPECTING A COLD NIGHT FROM UPPER
TEENS IN THE NW TO MID-20S SE. SINGLE-DIGIT WIND CHILLS LIKELY IN
THE NW. FRIDAY WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SHIFTS EAST DURING THE DAY AND TEMPS
STRUGGLE TO REBOUND. A SHORT-WAVE SCOOTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
DURING THE DAY MAY THROW ENOUGH AFTERNOON HIGH CLOUDINESS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES TO IMPEDE WARMUP MUCH BEYOND
LOW 30S NW AND LOW 40S EAST WHICH IS EASILY 15F BELOW CLIMATOLOGY
FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 256 PM EST THURSDAY...

FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD SHAPING UP FOR THE WEEKEND. UPPER TROF WILL
BE PUSHING OFF TO OUR EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS WE ENTER MORE OF A
ZONAL PATTERN. THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SET UP
SHOP TO OUR EAST AND KEEP AN APPROACHING FRONT AT BAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL REALLY GET
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION CRANKING AND EXPECT MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S BY SUNDAY. THE BRISK LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO MAKE
FOR SOME WINDY CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 256 PM EST THURSDAY...

APPROACHING COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH ON MONDAY. BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN DOWNSLOPE EAST OF THE RIDGE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN AGGRESSIVELY WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD
ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN TO OUR TEMPS. CHANCE
POPS STILL WARRANTED THROUGH MIDWEEK DUE TO POSSIBLE UPSLOPE IN
E/SELY FLOW. NEXT APPROACHING LOW IS A FAIRLY SHALLOW AMPLITUDE
WAVE AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE HIGH TO DRIFT TO OUR EAST AND
LINGER A BIT...WITH RETURN FLOW WARMING US BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS
FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM EST THURSDAY...

UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION. WEAK EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVE HELPING TO ALLOW NEXT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR TO SPREAD INTO THE
REGION. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF UPSLOPE...CAA...AND THE SHORT WAVE
TRIGGERING SCT -SHSN MAINLY WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT WITH A FEW
-SHSN SPILLING OVER TO THE WEST SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH CAA
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND YET ANOTHER WEAK EMBEDDED UPSTREAM SHORT
WAVE...WOULD EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. JUST SCT-BKN
CLOUDS AT TIMES FOR AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY MVFR WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH MID-MORNING
FRI...AND AT WORST LOW END VFR CIGS EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...INCLUDING ROA/LYH/DAN. -SHSN WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL
BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITY AT TIMES TO IFR CATEGORY...MAINLY LWB
AND BLF. THE THREAT FOR THIS WILL DECREASE AFT 06Z AND THE MAIN
SHORT WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE REGION. ELSEWHERE...VSBYS MOSTLY VFR
OVERNIGHT AND FRI. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...POTENTIALLY HANGING IN TOUGH WITH MVFR CIGS AT
BLF/LWB THROUGH 18/19Z...BUT BECOMING SCT TO SKC EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE BY 18Z FRI. WINDS NW-W THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD AT
SPEEDS OF 6-10KTS...WITH LOW END GUSTS REMAINING POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT ROA/BCB/BLF.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION FRI...RETURNING
ALL SITES TO VFR CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS
WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSING BY
TO THE NORTH FRI EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SAT-SUN WITH
A WARMING TREND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE REGION MON-TUE
WITH A CHANCE OF -SHRA AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG THE FRONT
FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL EASTERLY FLOW...THUS
ASSOCIATED MVFR CIGS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WAS MALFUNCTIONING
AGAIN. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER BUT THE REPAIR MAY NOT BE UNTIL
MONDAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLYH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STAFF WHEN THE
CONTROL TOWER IS OPEN...OTHERWISE THE VISIBILITY WILL BE MISSING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...PC/RAB
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...PC/RAB
EQUIPMENT...AMS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 280005
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
705 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION AND BRING COLDER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION...ALONG WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. AS
THE HIGH SLIPS OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
AND WE WILL HAVE FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER BACK TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM EST THURSDAY...

EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IN EASTERN U.S. TROUGH COMBINING WITH NEXT
SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR AND ASSOCIATED CAA/UPSLOPE FLOW TO TRIGGER
-SHSN THROUGH THE ALLEGHANYS. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
WITH YET ANOTHER WEAK UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TO APPROACH LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRI. SINCE -SHSN HAVE BEEN REPORTED FOR SEVERAL
HOURS AS FAR EAST AS BCB AND OTHER NEARBY SITES...HAVE INCREASED
POPS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO ACCOUNT FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF
-SHSN. MOST WILL BE FLURRIES...BUT AT TIMES...NOTING BANDING OF
PCPN ON RADAR...THERE WILL BE SOME HEAVIER -SHSN...ESPECIALLY
UPSLOPE AREAS OF EASTERN WV/ALLEGHANYS. POPS VARY FROM LIKELY NW
GREENBRIER WHERE AN 1 OR SO OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE
OVERNIGHT...TO 0 EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. T/TD APPEAR TO BE ON
TRACK...SO NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

AS OF 256 PM EST THURSDAY...

UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT BUT NOT BEFORE A
PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS BRINGS SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FAVORED
UPSLOPE AREAS OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE 1 OR 2 INCHES IN WESTERN
GREENBRIER ALTHOUGH LIKELY NOT ENOUGH FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA. MAY
NEED TO ISSUE AN SPS OR TWO FOR MORE INTENSE SNOW BANDS. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE IN FULL FORCE OVERNIGHT AS H85 TEMPS DROP FROM
-2C TO -5C RANGE THIS AFTERNOON TO -8C TO -13C BY FRIDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN UP MOST OF THE NIGHT PREVENTING IDEAL
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS BUT STILL EXPECTING A COLD NIGHT FROM UPPER
TEENS IN THE NW TO MID-20S SE. SINGLE-DIGIT WIND CHILLS LIKELY IN
THE NW. FRIDAY WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SHIFTS EAST DURING THE DAY AND TEMPS
STRUGGLE TO REBOUND. A SHORT-WAVE SCOOTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
DURING THE DAY MAY THROW ENOUGH AFTERNOON HIGH CLOUDINESS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES TO IMPEDE WARMUP MUCH BEYOND
LOW 30S NW AND LOW 40S EAST WHICH IS EASILY 15F BELOW CLIMATOLOGY
FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 256 PM EST THURSDAY...

FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD SHAPING UP FOR THE WEEKEND. UPPER TROF WILL
BE PUSHING OFF TO OUR EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS WE ENTER MORE OF A
ZONAL PATTERN. THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SET UP
SHOP TO OUR EAST AND KEEP AN APPROACHING FRONT AT BAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL REALLY GET
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION CRANKING AND EXPECT MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S BY SUNDAY. THE BRISK LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO MAKE
FOR SOME WINDY CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 256 PM EST THURSDAY...

APPROACHING COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH ON MONDAY. BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN DOWNSLOPE EAST OF THE RIDGE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN AGGRESSIVELY WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD
ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN TO OUR TEMPS. CHANCE
POPS STILL WARRANTED THROUGH MIDWEEK DUE TO POSSIBLE UPSLOPE IN
E/SELY FLOW. NEXT APPROACHING LOW IS A FAIRLY SHALLOW AMPLITUDE
WAVE AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE HIGH TO DRIFT TO OUR EAST AND
LINGER A BIT...WITH RETURN FLOW WARMING US BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS
FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM EST THURSDAY...

UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION. WEAK EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVE HELPING TO ALLOW NEXT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR TO SPREAD INTO THE
REGION. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF UPSLOPE...CAA...AND THE SHORT WAVE
TRIGGERING SCT -SHSN MAINLY WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT WITH A FEW
-SHSN SPILLING OVER TO THE WEST SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH CAA
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND YET ANOTHER WEAK EMBEDDED UPSTREAM SHORT
WAVE...WOULD EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. JUST SCT-BKN
CLOUDS AT TIMES FOR AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY MVFR WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH MID-MORNING
FRI...AND AT WORST LOW END VFR CIGS EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...INCLUDING ROA/LYH/DAN. -SHSN WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL
BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITY AT TIMES TO IFR CATEGORY...MAINLY LWB
AND BLF. THE THREAT FOR THIS WILL DECREASE AFT 06Z AND THE MAIN
SHORT WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE REGION. ELSEWHERE...VSBYS MOSTLY VFR
OVERNIGHT AND FRI. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...POTENTIALLY HANGING IN TOUGH WITH MVFR CIGS AT
BLF/LWB THROUGH 18/19Z...BUT BECOMING SCT TO SKC EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE BY 18Z FRI. WINDS NW-W THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD AT
SPEEDS OF 6-10KTS...WITH LOW END GUSTS REMAINING POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT ROA/BCB/BLF.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION FRI...RETURNING
ALL SITES TO VFR CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS
WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSING BY
TO THE NORTH FRI EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SAT-SUN WITH
A WARMING TREND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE REGION MON-TUE
WITH A CHANCE OF -SHRA AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG THE FRONT
FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL EASTERLY FLOW...THUS
ASSOCIATED MVFR CIGS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WAS MALFUNCTIONING
AGAIN. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER BUT THE REPAIR MAY NOT BE UNTIL
MONDAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLYH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STAFF WHEN THE
CONTROL TOWER IS OPEN...OTHERWISE THE VISIBILITY WILL BE MISSING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...PC/RAB
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...PC/RAB
EQUIPMENT...AMS



000
FXUS61 KRNK 272348
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
648 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION AND BRING COLDER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION...ALONG WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. AS
THE HIGH SLIPS OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
AND WE WILL HAVE FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER BACK TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 256 PM EST THURSDAY...

UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT BUT NOT BEFORE A
PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS BRINGS SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FAVORED
UPSLOPE AREAS OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE 1 OR 2 INCHES IN WESTERN
GREENBRIER ALTHOUGH LIKELY NOT ENOUGH FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA. MAY
NEED TO ISSUE AN SPS OR TWO FOR MORE INTENSE SNOW BANDS. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE IN FULL FORCE OVERNIGHT AS H85 TEMPS DROP FROM
-2C TO -5C RANGE THIS AFTERNOON TO -8C TO -13C BY FRIDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN UP MOST OF THE NIGHT PREVENTING IDEAL
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS BUT STILL EXPECTING A COLD NIGHT FROM UPPER
TEENS IN THE NW TO MID-20S SE. SINGLE-DIGIT WIND CHILLS LIKELY IN
THE NW. FRIDAY WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SHIFTS EAST DURING THE DAY AND TEMPS
STRUGGLE TO REBOUND. A SHORT-WAVE SCOOTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
DURING THE DAY MAY THROW ENOUGH AFTERNOON HIGH CLOUDINESS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES TO IMPEDE WARMUP MUCH BEYOND
LOW 30S NW AND LOW 40S EAST WHICH IS EASILY 15F BELOW CLIMATOLOGY
FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 256 PM EST THURSDAY...

FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD SHAPING UP FOR THE WEEKEND. UPPER TROF WILL
BE PUSHING OFF TO OUR EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS WE ENTER MORE OF A
ZONAL PATTERN. THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SET UP
SHOP TO OUR EAST AND KEEP AN APPROACHING FRONT AT BAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL REALLY GET
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION CRANKING AND EXPECT MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S BY SUNDAY. THE BRISK LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO MAKE
FOR SOME WINDY CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 256 PM EST THURSDAY...

APPROACHING COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH ON MONDAY. BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN DOWNSLOPE EAST OF THE RIDGE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN AGGRESSIVELY WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD
ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN TO OUR TEMPS. CHANCE
POPS STILL WARRANTED THROUGH MIDWEEK DUE TO POSSIBLE UPSLOPE IN
E/SELY FLOW. NEXT APPROACHING LOW IS A FAIRLY SHALLOW AMPLITUDE
WAVE AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE HIGH TO DRIFT TO OUR EAST AND
LINGER A BIT...WITH RETURN FLOW WARMING US BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS
FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM EST THURSDAY...

UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION. WEAK EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVE HELPING TO ALLOW NEXT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR TO SPREAD INTO THE
REGION. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF UPSLOPE...CAA...AND THE SHORT WAVE
TRIGGERING SCT -SHSN MAINLY WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT WITH A FEW
-SHSN SPILLING OVER TO THE WEST SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH CAA
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND YET ANOTHER WEAK EMBEDDED UPSTREAM SHORT
WAVE...WOULD EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. JUST SCT-BKN
CLOUDS AT TIMES FOR AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY MVFR WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH MID-MORNING
FRI...AND AT WORST LOW END VFR CIGS EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...INCLUDING ROA/LYH/DAN. -SHSN WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL
BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITY AT TIMES TO IFR CATEGORY...MAINLY LWB
AND BLF. THE THREAT FOR THIS WILL DECREASE AFT 06Z AND THE MAIN
SHORT WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE REGION. ELSEWHERE...VSBYS MOSTLY VFR
OVERNIGHT AND FRI. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...POTENTIALLY HANGING IN TOUGH WITH MVFR CIGS AT
BLF/LWB THROUGH 18/19Z...BUT BECOMING SCT TO SKC EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE BY 18Z FRI. WINDS NW-W THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD AT
SPEEDS OF 6-10KTS...WITH LOW END GUSTS REMAINING POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT ROA/BCB/BLF.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION FRI...RETURNING
ALL SITES TO VFR CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS
WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSING BY
TO THE NORTH FRI EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SAT-SUN WITH
A WARMING TREND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE REGION MON-TUE
WITH A CHANCE OF -SHRA AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG THE FRONT
FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL EASTERLY FLOW...THUS
ASSOCIATED MVFR CIGS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WAS MALFUNCTIONING
AGAIN. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER BUT THE REPAIR MAY NOT BE UNTIL
MONDAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLYH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STAFF WHEN THE
CONTROL TOWER IS OPEN...OTHERWISE THE VISIBILITY WILL BE MISSING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...PC
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...PC/RAB
EQUIPMENT...AMS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 272348
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
648 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION AND BRING COLDER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION...ALONG WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. AS
THE HIGH SLIPS OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
AND WE WILL HAVE FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER BACK TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 256 PM EST THURSDAY...

UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT BUT NOT BEFORE A
PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS BRINGS SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FAVORED
UPSLOPE AREAS OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE 1 OR 2 INCHES IN WESTERN
GREENBRIER ALTHOUGH LIKELY NOT ENOUGH FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA. MAY
NEED TO ISSUE AN SPS OR TWO FOR MORE INTENSE SNOW BANDS. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE IN FULL FORCE OVERNIGHT AS H85 TEMPS DROP FROM
-2C TO -5C RANGE THIS AFTERNOON TO -8C TO -13C BY FRIDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN UP MOST OF THE NIGHT PREVENTING IDEAL
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS BUT STILL EXPECTING A COLD NIGHT FROM UPPER
TEENS IN THE NW TO MID-20S SE. SINGLE-DIGIT WIND CHILLS LIKELY IN
THE NW. FRIDAY WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SHIFTS EAST DURING THE DAY AND TEMPS
STRUGGLE TO REBOUND. A SHORT-WAVE SCOOTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
DURING THE DAY MAY THROW ENOUGH AFTERNOON HIGH CLOUDINESS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES TO IMPEDE WARMUP MUCH BEYOND
LOW 30S NW AND LOW 40S EAST WHICH IS EASILY 15F BELOW CLIMATOLOGY
FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 256 PM EST THURSDAY...

FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD SHAPING UP FOR THE WEEKEND. UPPER TROF WILL
BE PUSHING OFF TO OUR EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS WE ENTER MORE OF A
ZONAL PATTERN. THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SET UP
SHOP TO OUR EAST AND KEEP AN APPROACHING FRONT AT BAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL REALLY GET
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION CRANKING AND EXPECT MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S BY SUNDAY. THE BRISK LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO MAKE
FOR SOME WINDY CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 256 PM EST THURSDAY...

APPROACHING COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH ON MONDAY. BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN DOWNSLOPE EAST OF THE RIDGE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN AGGRESSIVELY WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD
ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN TO OUR TEMPS. CHANCE
POPS STILL WARRANTED THROUGH MIDWEEK DUE TO POSSIBLE UPSLOPE IN
E/SELY FLOW. NEXT APPROACHING LOW IS A FAIRLY SHALLOW AMPLITUDE
WAVE AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE HIGH TO DRIFT TO OUR EAST AND
LINGER A BIT...WITH RETURN FLOW WARMING US BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS
FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM EST THURSDAY...

UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION. WEAK EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVE HELPING TO ALLOW NEXT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR TO SPREAD INTO THE
REGION. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF UPSLOPE...CAA...AND THE SHORT WAVE
TRIGGERING SCT -SHSN MAINLY WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT WITH A FEW
-SHSN SPILLING OVER TO THE WEST SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH CAA
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND YET ANOTHER WEAK EMBEDDED UPSTREAM SHORT
WAVE...WOULD EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. JUST SCT-BKN
CLOUDS AT TIMES FOR AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY MVFR WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH MID-MORNING
FRI...AND AT WORST LOW END VFR CIGS EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...INCLUDING ROA/LYH/DAN. -SHSN WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL
BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITY AT TIMES TO IFR CATEGORY...MAINLY LWB
AND BLF. THE THREAT FOR THIS WILL DECREASE AFT 06Z AND THE MAIN
SHORT WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE REGION. ELSEWHERE...VSBYS MOSTLY VFR
OVERNIGHT AND FRI. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...POTENTIALLY HANGING IN TOUGH WITH MVFR CIGS AT
BLF/LWB THROUGH 18/19Z...BUT BECOMING SCT TO SKC EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE BY 18Z FRI. WINDS NW-W THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD AT
SPEEDS OF 6-10KTS...WITH LOW END GUSTS REMAINING POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT ROA/BCB/BLF.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION FRI...RETURNING
ALL SITES TO VFR CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS
WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSING BY
TO THE NORTH FRI EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SAT-SUN WITH
A WARMING TREND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE REGION MON-TUE
WITH A CHANCE OF -SHRA AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG THE FRONT
FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL EASTERLY FLOW...THUS
ASSOCIATED MVFR CIGS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WAS MALFUNCTIONING
AGAIN. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER BUT THE REPAIR MAY NOT BE UNTIL
MONDAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLYH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STAFF WHEN THE
CONTROL TOWER IS OPEN...OTHERWISE THE VISIBILITY WILL BE MISSING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...PC
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...PC/RAB
EQUIPMENT...AMS



000
FXUS61 KLWX 272226
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
526 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT...BUT ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. A PRESSURE SURGE WILL CAUSE
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS AND IT WILL BE COLD DUE TO A NORTHWEST FLOW.
AN UPSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO
LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. MOISTURE WILL BE
PARTIALLY LINED UP WITH THE MAXIMUM DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE
UNDERNEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL
ALSO REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH AND THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND
AS WELL. THEREFORE...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE RIDGE TOPS IN WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA ALONG AND WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT. TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THESE AREAS. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY SPILL EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND...EXTREME NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND EASTERN
WEST VIRGINIA...BUT LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
FCST MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT
TO THE LOW 30S NEAR WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. ANY LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT WILL DIMINISH AND SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...IT WILL BE COLD DUE TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE
BUILDING HIGH. MAX TEMPS WILL BE BELOW CLIMO...RANGING FROM THE
20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT AND
SOUTHERN MARYLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
PATTERN SHIFT AS WRN CONUS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS AN UPR TROUGH SHIFTS
SOUTH INTO THE PAC NW. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EAST FROM
THE MIDWEST STATES AND INTO THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. 00Z ECMWF/12Z GFS
SUGGEST LIFT FROM THIS FRONT WILL CAUSE PRECIP INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS FRIDAY NIGHT. IN SPITE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION...THERMAL
PROFILES COOL ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW. LIMITED POPS FOR NOW TO THE NWRN
THREE ZONES (WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT). MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
ELSEWHERE...THOUGH PLENTY OF COLD AIR AND LITTLE MIXING WILL ALLOW
FOR MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S INLAND...UPR 20S NEAR SHORE.

WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IN SWLY FLOW
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES MODERATE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...REACHING NORMAL BY SUNDAY EVENING. TEMPS A BLEND OF
MAV/MET AND SREF OVERNIGHT/MOSGUIDE DURING THE DAY. BY THE TIME
PRECIP RETURNS TO WRN ZONES SATURDAY EVENING...IT SHOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN. NOT EXPECTING FREEZING RAIN AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE
WARM NOSE DESCENDING...WILL HAVE TO LOOKOUT FOR THAT THOUGH. DRY
EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WITH SWLY/SLY FLOW 10 MPH OR SO
MAINTAINED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IN DECENT GRADIENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OFFSHORE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SET UP A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BRING IN
WARMER TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY...AND CROSS THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE REGION ITS NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN.
SOME WET SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES WITH ANY
LEFTOVER SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE AND WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS MONDAY EVENING. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT ONCE
TEMPERATURES DROP...BUT AIRMASS WILL BE MARGINAL SO ANY ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL IS QUESTIONABLE.

A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE /I.E. 1040 MB/ WILL BUILD TO THE
NORTH TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT STALLS TO THE SOUTH...THEN SLOWLY RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR COLD AIR DAMMING
IN THE MODELS...WITH EVEN LOWER RESOLUTION GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS OVER MUCH OF THE
SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. ECMWF IS WARMER AT 850
MB AND DEEPER WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST RESULTING IN MORE
PRECIPITATION AND SUGGESTING A HIGHER ICE POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY WEST
OF THE METRO. GFS IS COLDER AT 850 MB AND WEAKER WITH LOW PRESSURE
TO THE WEST SUGGESTING LIGHTER QPF AND A MORE GENERIC WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW AND RAIN. FOR NOW...STICKING WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW...BUT
WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO MONITOR AND FINE-TUNE OVER THE COMING DAYS
AS POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR OVERRUNNING PRECIP. OVER COLD AIR TO
RESULT IN WINTRY PRECIP OVER AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. LEFT OUT OF HWO FOR NOW BECAUSE 30 PERCENT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT THERE THAT WE WILL BE ISSUING HAZARDS GIVEN LARGE
SPREAD IN TIMING/TEMPERATURES.

MODELS/ENSEMBLES BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER THIS TIME IN RESPONSE TO A
PATTERN CHANGE ALOFT WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW OF PACIFIC ORIGIN TAKING
HOLD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. BRIEF PERIOD OF CIGS
AROUND 3000 FT PSBL WITH LIGHT PCPN SHOWERS THRU 00Z AS A TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. A PRESSURE SURGE BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY WILL CAUSE
NORTHWEST TO GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TOWARD FRIDAY EVENING.

VFR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CALM FRIDAY NIGHT THEN
SWLY/SLY FLOW INCREASES TO 10-15 KT SATURDAY...10 KT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY W/ S FLOW 10-15 KTS. SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCTD
SHWRS MON EVE W/ FROPA. WINDS BECOME W AND DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10
KTS MON. FLOW BECOMES N THEN E BEHIND FROPA TUE W/ SUB-VFR POSSIBLE
IN PRECIP LATE TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH WIND GUSTS TO 20 KTS ALREADY BEING REPORTED ON MULTIPLE
MESONET...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND BEGUN THE SCA ON ALL THE
WATERS AS THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS. THE
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY.

HIGH PRES OVERHEAD FRIDAY EVENING...WITH RETURN FLOW INCREASING
SATURDAY. SLY CHANNELING EXPECTED WITH SCA LIKELY BY LATE MORNING
SATURDAY CONTINUING WELL INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS
LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
SLOWLY CROSS THE WATERS LATE MONDAY. WINDS DIMINISH AS THE FRONT
PASSES...THEN STALLS NEAR THE WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ503.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ501-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KLWX 272226
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
526 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT...BUT ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. A PRESSURE SURGE WILL CAUSE
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS AND IT WILL BE COLD DUE TO A NORTHWEST FLOW.
AN UPSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO
LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. MOISTURE WILL BE
PARTIALLY LINED UP WITH THE MAXIMUM DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE
UNDERNEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL
ALSO REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH AND THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND
AS WELL. THEREFORE...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE RIDGE TOPS IN WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA ALONG AND WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT. TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THESE AREAS. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY SPILL EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND...EXTREME NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND EASTERN
WEST VIRGINIA...BUT LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
FCST MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT
TO THE LOW 30S NEAR WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. ANY LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT WILL DIMINISH AND SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...IT WILL BE COLD DUE TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE
BUILDING HIGH. MAX TEMPS WILL BE BELOW CLIMO...RANGING FROM THE
20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT AND
SOUTHERN MARYLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
PATTERN SHIFT AS WRN CONUS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS AN UPR TROUGH SHIFTS
SOUTH INTO THE PAC NW. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EAST FROM
THE MIDWEST STATES AND INTO THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. 00Z ECMWF/12Z GFS
SUGGEST LIFT FROM THIS FRONT WILL CAUSE PRECIP INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS FRIDAY NIGHT. IN SPITE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION...THERMAL
PROFILES COOL ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW. LIMITED POPS FOR NOW TO THE NWRN
THREE ZONES (WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT). MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
ELSEWHERE...THOUGH PLENTY OF COLD AIR AND LITTLE MIXING WILL ALLOW
FOR MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S INLAND...UPR 20S NEAR SHORE.

WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IN SWLY FLOW
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES MODERATE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...REACHING NORMAL BY SUNDAY EVENING. TEMPS A BLEND OF
MAV/MET AND SREF OVERNIGHT/MOSGUIDE DURING THE DAY. BY THE TIME
PRECIP RETURNS TO WRN ZONES SATURDAY EVENING...IT SHOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN. NOT EXPECTING FREEZING RAIN AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE
WARM NOSE DESCENDING...WILL HAVE TO LOOKOUT FOR THAT THOUGH. DRY
EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WITH SWLY/SLY FLOW 10 MPH OR SO
MAINTAINED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IN DECENT GRADIENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OFFSHORE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SET UP A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BRING IN
WARMER TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY...AND CROSS THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE REGION ITS NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN.
SOME WET SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES WITH ANY
LEFTOVER SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE AND WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS MONDAY EVENING. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT ONCE
TEMPERATURES DROP...BUT AIRMASS WILL BE MARGINAL SO ANY ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL IS QUESTIONABLE.

A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE /I.E. 1040 MB/ WILL BUILD TO THE
NORTH TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT STALLS TO THE SOUTH...THEN SLOWLY RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR COLD AIR DAMMING
IN THE MODELS...WITH EVEN LOWER RESOLUTION GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS OVER MUCH OF THE
SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. ECMWF IS WARMER AT 850
MB AND DEEPER WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST RESULTING IN MORE
PRECIPITATION AND SUGGESTING A HIGHER ICE POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY WEST
OF THE METRO. GFS IS COLDER AT 850 MB AND WEAKER WITH LOW PRESSURE
TO THE WEST SUGGESTING LIGHTER QPF AND A MORE GENERIC WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW AND RAIN. FOR NOW...STICKING WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW...BUT
WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO MONITOR AND FINE-TUNE OVER THE COMING DAYS
AS POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR OVERRUNNING PRECIP. OVER COLD AIR TO
RESULT IN WINTRY PRECIP OVER AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. LEFT OUT OF HWO FOR NOW BECAUSE 30 PERCENT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT THERE THAT WE WILL BE ISSUING HAZARDS GIVEN LARGE
SPREAD IN TIMING/TEMPERATURES.

MODELS/ENSEMBLES BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER THIS TIME IN RESPONSE TO A
PATTERN CHANGE ALOFT WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW OF PACIFIC ORIGIN TAKING
HOLD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. BRIEF PERIOD OF CIGS
AROUND 3000 FT PSBL WITH LIGHT PCPN SHOWERS THRU 00Z AS A TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. A PRESSURE SURGE BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY WILL CAUSE
NORTHWEST TO GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TOWARD FRIDAY EVENING.

VFR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CALM FRIDAY NIGHT THEN
SWLY/SLY FLOW INCREASES TO 10-15 KT SATURDAY...10 KT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY W/ S FLOW 10-15 KTS. SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCTD
SHWRS MON EVE W/ FROPA. WINDS BECOME W AND DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10
KTS MON. FLOW BECOMES N THEN E BEHIND FROPA TUE W/ SUB-VFR POSSIBLE
IN PRECIP LATE TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH WIND GUSTS TO 20 KTS ALREADY BEING REPORTED ON MULTIPLE
MESONET...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND BEGUN THE SCA ON ALL THE
WATERS AS THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS. THE
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY.

HIGH PRES OVERHEAD FRIDAY EVENING...WITH RETURN FLOW INCREASING
SATURDAY. SLY CHANNELING EXPECTED WITH SCA LIKELY BY LATE MORNING
SATURDAY CONTINUING WELL INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS
LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
SLOWLY CROSS THE WATERS LATE MONDAY. WINDS DIMINISH AS THE FRONT
PASSES...THEN STALLS NEAR THE WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ503.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ501-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 272059
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
359 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH BECOMES
CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SFC LOW PRESSURE NOW ANALYZED ALONG THE ERN NC COAST...AND PROGGED
TO SHIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. STILL SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACRS SOUTHERN/SE VA...WITH SKIES PARTIALLY
CLEARING. HAD SOME REPORTS OF SLEET WITH THE BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH SE VA...BUT SFC TEMPS ARE IN THE 40S SO NO
IMPACTS WILL OCCUR. WILL MAINTAIN CHC TO LIKELY POPS FOR A FEW
MORE HRS...TAPERING OFF BY 00Z OR SHORTLY AFTERWARDS. SKIES BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR...BUT NW WINDS WILL KEEP READINGS FROM DROPPING OFF
AS MUCH AS THEY OTHERWISE WOULD...ESP NEAR THE COAST. LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MID 20S WEST OF I-95 TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A QUIET PERIOD EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL ON FRI EVEN UNDER NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE. THIS WILL
RESULT FROM STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TN VALLEY...BUILDING
EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS. NW WINDS AVERAGING 10-15 MPH IN THE
MORNING WILL GENLY BECOME LIGHTER BY AFTN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. BLENDED GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE FOR HIGHS GIVEN 850 MB
TEMPS PROGGED TO BE -8 TO -10 C. THIS WILL YIELD HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 40S THROUGHOUT...MID 40S IN NE NC AND IT MAY NOT GET OUT
OF THE UPPER 30S ACRS THE FAR NORTH. THANKFULLY...THE SUN WILL
FINALLY SHINE. NAM/GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY FRI NIGHT...ALLOWING THE UPPER FLOW
TO FLATTEN OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS BRINGS AN INCREASE IN MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS LATE FRI/FRI NIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACRS THE NORTH.
STILL EXPECT A COLD NIGHT...AS TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY DROP IN THE
EVENING THEN LEVEL OFF THEREAFTER. LOWS MAINLY 25-30 F...NOT
REALLY ANY WARMER NEAR THE COAST DUE TO LIGHT FLOW ON THE NORTHERN
SIDE OF THE SFC HIGH. SKIES AVG PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
NORTH...AND PARTLY SUNNY SOUTH ON SAT...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS IN
THE AFTN. TEMPS MODERATE A BIT ON SAT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO
THE SSW. STILL A BIT BELOW AVG WITH HIGHS 50-55 F CENTRAL AND
SOUTH AND IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WILL SEND A COUPLE OF FAST MOVING COLD
FRONTS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
RIDGING ALONG THE LATITUDE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA WILL
KEEP HEIGHTS HIGH ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE SOUTHWARD PENETRATION OF
ARCTIC AIR.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MID LEVEL MOISTURE FOLLOWING THE
FRONT MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST WITH A CLEARING SKY
FROM THE WEST BUT SLGT CHC POPS CONTINUING TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG
TERM. HIGHS IN THE UPR 50S NE TO MID 60S SW MONDAY COOL TO THE MID
40S NW TO MID 50S SE TUESDAY. HIGHS IN THE 50S ARE FORECAST
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOWS IN THE 40S MONDAY MORNING LOWER TO THE
UPR 30S TO MID 40S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG SHORT WAVE WAS PRODUCING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER
SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
PIEDMONT WILL MOVE TO THE EAST WITH INCREASING N/NW WINDS IN ITS
WAKE. THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE TOWARD EVENING ESPECIALLY AT ORF.
AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST...LIGHT RAIN AND LATER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DISSIPATE AT THE TAF SITES FROM WEST TO EAST.

OUTLOOK... VFR AND DRY WX IS INDICATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH AROUND MONDAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
INDICATED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OFF THE ERN NC COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS
STRONG ~1034MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. NLY FLOW
OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AVG 10-15 KT. SEAS AVG 3-5
FT...HIGHEST IN THE NRN COASTAL ZONES. STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN TANDEM WITH CAA WILL RESULT IN SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE
WATERS TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. STRONGEST CAA ARRIVES THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT...WITH NWLY WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT OVER THE BAY/SOUND/COASTAL WATERS. 15-20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT OVER THE ERN VA RIVERS. SEAS BUILD TO 4-6 FT WITH
WAVES 3-4 FT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FRI MORNING AS
CAA WANES AND NWLY WINDS SUBSIDE. HEADLINES RUN THRU MID MORNING FOR
THE RIVERS AND EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE BAY. SEAS REMAIN 4-5 FT THRU
THE DAY...WITH HEADLINES EXTENDED THRU 6PM FRI. THEREAFTER...HIGH
PRESSURE AND SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL THRU THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS MON-MON EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND MON NIGHT-TUES...RIDGING OVER CNTRL VA.
RESULTANT N-NE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO NEAR SCA CONDITIONS MON
NIGHT-TUES AS SEAS BUILD TO 4-5 FT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO CROSS THE WATERS WEDS NIGHT INTO THURS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 272059
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
359 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH BECOMES
CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SFC LOW PRESSURE NOW ANALYZED ALONG THE ERN NC COAST...AND PROGGED
TO SHIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. STILL SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACRS SOUTHERN/SE VA...WITH SKIES PARTIALLY
CLEARING. HAD SOME REPORTS OF SLEET WITH THE BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH SE VA...BUT SFC TEMPS ARE IN THE 40S SO NO
IMPACTS WILL OCCUR. WILL MAINTAIN CHC TO LIKELY POPS FOR A FEW
MORE HRS...TAPERING OFF BY 00Z OR SHORTLY AFTERWARDS. SKIES BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR...BUT NW WINDS WILL KEEP READINGS FROM DROPPING OFF
AS MUCH AS THEY OTHERWISE WOULD...ESP NEAR THE COAST. LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MID 20S WEST OF I-95 TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A QUIET PERIOD EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL ON FRI EVEN UNDER NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE. THIS WILL
RESULT FROM STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TN VALLEY...BUILDING
EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS. NW WINDS AVERAGING 10-15 MPH IN THE
MORNING WILL GENLY BECOME LIGHTER BY AFTN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. BLENDED GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE FOR HIGHS GIVEN 850 MB
TEMPS PROGGED TO BE -8 TO -10 C. THIS WILL YIELD HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 40S THROUGHOUT...MID 40S IN NE NC AND IT MAY NOT GET OUT
OF THE UPPER 30S ACRS THE FAR NORTH. THANKFULLY...THE SUN WILL
FINALLY SHINE. NAM/GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY FRI NIGHT...ALLOWING THE UPPER FLOW
TO FLATTEN OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS BRINGS AN INCREASE IN MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS LATE FRI/FRI NIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACRS THE NORTH.
STILL EXPECT A COLD NIGHT...AS TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY DROP IN THE
EVENING THEN LEVEL OFF THEREAFTER. LOWS MAINLY 25-30 F...NOT
REALLY ANY WARMER NEAR THE COAST DUE TO LIGHT FLOW ON THE NORTHERN
SIDE OF THE SFC HIGH. SKIES AVG PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
NORTH...AND PARTLY SUNNY SOUTH ON SAT...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS IN
THE AFTN. TEMPS MODERATE A BIT ON SAT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO
THE SSW. STILL A BIT BELOW AVG WITH HIGHS 50-55 F CENTRAL AND
SOUTH AND IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WILL SEND A COUPLE OF FAST MOVING COLD
FRONTS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
RIDGING ALONG THE LATITUDE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA WILL
KEEP HEIGHTS HIGH ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE SOUTHWARD PENETRATION OF
ARCTIC AIR.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MID LEVEL MOISTURE FOLLOWING THE
FRONT MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST WITH A CLEARING SKY
FROM THE WEST BUT SLGT CHC POPS CONTINUING TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG
TERM. HIGHS IN THE UPR 50S NE TO MID 60S SW MONDAY COOL TO THE MID
40S NW TO MID 50S SE TUESDAY. HIGHS IN THE 50S ARE FORECAST
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOWS IN THE 40S MONDAY MORNING LOWER TO THE
UPR 30S TO MID 40S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG SHORT WAVE WAS PRODUCING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER
SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
PIEDMONT WILL MOVE TO THE EAST WITH INCREASING N/NW WINDS IN ITS
WAKE. THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE TOWARD EVENING ESPECIALLY AT ORF.
AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST...LIGHT RAIN AND LATER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DISSIPATE AT THE TAF SITES FROM WEST TO EAST.

OUTLOOK... VFR AND DRY WX IS INDICATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH AROUND MONDAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
INDICATED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OFF THE ERN NC COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS
STRONG ~1034MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. NLY FLOW
OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AVG 10-15 KT. SEAS AVG 3-5
FT...HIGHEST IN THE NRN COASTAL ZONES. STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN TANDEM WITH CAA WILL RESULT IN SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE
WATERS TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. STRONGEST CAA ARRIVES THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT...WITH NWLY WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT OVER THE BAY/SOUND/COASTAL WATERS. 15-20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT OVER THE ERN VA RIVERS. SEAS BUILD TO 4-6 FT WITH
WAVES 3-4 FT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FRI MORNING AS
CAA WANES AND NWLY WINDS SUBSIDE. HEADLINES RUN THRU MID MORNING FOR
THE RIVERS AND EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE BAY. SEAS REMAIN 4-5 FT THRU
THE DAY...WITH HEADLINES EXTENDED THRU 6PM FRI. THEREAFTER...HIGH
PRESSURE AND SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL THRU THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS MON-MON EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND MON NIGHT-TUES...RIDGING OVER CNTRL VA.
RESULTANT N-NE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO NEAR SCA CONDITIONS MON
NIGHT-TUES AS SEAS BUILD TO 4-5 FT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO CROSS THE WATERS WEDS NIGHT INTO THURS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM







000
FXUS61 KRNK 271957
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
257 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION AND BRING COLDER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION...ALONG WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. AS
THE HIGH SLIPS OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
AND WE WILL HAVE FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER BACK TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 256 PM EST THURSDAY...

UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT BUT NOT BEFORE A
PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS BRINGS SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FAVORED
UPSLOPE AREAS OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE 1 OR 2 INCHES IN WESTERN
GREENBRIER ALTHOUGH LIKELY NOT ENOUGH FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA. MAY
NEED TO ISSUE AN SPS OR TWO FOR MORE INTENSE SNOW BANDS. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE IN FULL FORCE OVERNIGHT AS H85 TEMPS DROP FROM
-2C TO -5C RANGE THIS AFTERNOON TO -8C TO -13C BY FRIDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN UP MOST OF THE NIGHT PREVENTING IDEAL
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS BUT STILL EXPECTING A COLD NIGHT FROM UPPER
TEENS IN THE NW TO MID-20S SE. SINGLE-DIGIT WIND CHILLS LIKELY IN
THE NW. FRIDAY WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SHIFTS EAST DURING THE DAY AND TEMPS
STRUGGLE TO REBOUND. A SHORT-WAVE SCOOTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
DURING THE DAY MAY THROW ENOUGH AFTERNOON HIGH CLOUDINESS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES TO IMPEDE WARMUP MUCH BEYOND
LOW 30S NW AND LOW 40S EAST WHICH IS EASILY 15F BELOW CLIMATOLOGY
FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 256 PM EST THURSDAY...

FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD SHAPING UP FOR THE WEEKEND. UPPER TROF WILL
BE PUSHING OFF TO OUR EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS WE ENTER MORE OF A
ZONAL PATTERN. THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SET UP
SHOP TO OUR EAST AND KEEP AN APPROACHING FRONT AT BAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL REALLY GET
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION CRANKING AND EXPECT MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S BY SUNDAY. THE BRISK LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO MAKE
FOR SOME WINDY CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 256 PM EST THURSDAY...

APPROACHING COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH ON MONDAY. BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN DOWNSLOPE EAST OF THE RIDGE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN AGGRESSIVELY WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD
ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN TO OUR TEMPS. CHANCE
POPS STILL WARRANTED THROUGH MIDWEEK DUE TO POSSIBLE UPSLOPE IN
E/SELY FLOW. NEXT APPROACHING LOW IS A FAIRLY SHALLOW AMPLITUDE
WAVE AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE HIGH TO DRIFT TO OUR EAST AND
LINGER A BIT...WITH RETURN FLOW WARMING US BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS
FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM EST THURSDAY...

DEPARTING SURFACE LOW LEAVING A LOT OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS
BEHIND BUT CONDITIONS HAVE GENERALLY IMPROVED INTO MVFR
CATEGORY... WHICH SHOULD PERSIST MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN RAPIDLY FROM THE WEST WILL USHER IN
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WITH WIND SPEEDS
FROM THE WEST GUSTING 15KT TO 25KT... TOPPING 30KT AT TIMES.
CEILINGS WILL ALSO IMPROVE TO VFR FOR KROA/KLYH/KDAN...HOWEVER THE
TRANSITION TO VFR WILL BE MORE GRADUAL FOR KBCB...TAKING UNTIL
LATE EVENING. CIGS WILL BE SLOWER TO IMPROVE OVER THE FAR WEST
WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW MAY KEEP KBLF AND KLWB MVFR WITH PASSING SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...RESULTING IN
VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE REGION ON
MONDAY...BRINGING A RETURN OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WAS MALFUNCTIONING
AGAIN. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER BUT THE REPAIR MAY NOT BE UNTIL
MONDAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLYH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STAFF WHEN THE
CONTROL TOWER IS OPEN...OTHERWISE THE VISIBILITY WILL BE MISSING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...PC
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...PC
EQUIPMENT...AMS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 271957
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
257 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION AND BRING COLDER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION...ALONG WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. AS
THE HIGH SLIPS OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
AND WE WILL HAVE FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER BACK TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 256 PM EST THURSDAY...

UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT BUT NOT BEFORE A
PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS BRINGS SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FAVORED
UPSLOPE AREAS OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE 1 OR 2 INCHES IN WESTERN
GREENBRIER ALTHOUGH LIKELY NOT ENOUGH FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA. MAY
NEED TO ISSUE AN SPS OR TWO FOR MORE INTENSE SNOW BANDS. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE IN FULL FORCE OVERNIGHT AS H85 TEMPS DROP FROM
-2C TO -5C RANGE THIS AFTERNOON TO -8C TO -13C BY FRIDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN UP MOST OF THE NIGHT PREVENTING IDEAL
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS BUT STILL EXPECTING A COLD NIGHT FROM UPPER
TEENS IN THE NW TO MID-20S SE. SINGLE-DIGIT WIND CHILLS LIKELY IN
THE NW. FRIDAY WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SHIFTS EAST DURING THE DAY AND TEMPS
STRUGGLE TO REBOUND. A SHORT-WAVE SCOOTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
DURING THE DAY MAY THROW ENOUGH AFTERNOON HIGH CLOUDINESS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES TO IMPEDE WARMUP MUCH BEYOND
LOW 30S NW AND LOW 40S EAST WHICH IS EASILY 15F BELOW CLIMATOLOGY
FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 256 PM EST THURSDAY...

FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD SHAPING UP FOR THE WEEKEND. UPPER TROF WILL
BE PUSHING OFF TO OUR EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS WE ENTER MORE OF A
ZONAL PATTERN. THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SET UP
SHOP TO OUR EAST AND KEEP AN APPROACHING FRONT AT BAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL REALLY GET
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION CRANKING AND EXPECT MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S BY SUNDAY. THE BRISK LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO MAKE
FOR SOME WINDY CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 256 PM EST THURSDAY...

APPROACHING COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH ON MONDAY. BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN DOWNSLOPE EAST OF THE RIDGE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN AGGRESSIVELY WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD
ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN TO OUR TEMPS. CHANCE
POPS STILL WARRANTED THROUGH MIDWEEK DUE TO POSSIBLE UPSLOPE IN
E/SELY FLOW. NEXT APPROACHING LOW IS A FAIRLY SHALLOW AMPLITUDE
WAVE AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE HIGH TO DRIFT TO OUR EAST AND
LINGER A BIT...WITH RETURN FLOW WARMING US BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS
FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM EST THURSDAY...

DEPARTING SURFACE LOW LEAVING A LOT OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS
BEHIND BUT CONDITIONS HAVE GENERALLY IMPROVED INTO MVFR
CATEGORY... WHICH SHOULD PERSIST MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN RAPIDLY FROM THE WEST WILL USHER IN
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WITH WIND SPEEDS
FROM THE WEST GUSTING 15KT TO 25KT... TOPPING 30KT AT TIMES.
CEILINGS WILL ALSO IMPROVE TO VFR FOR KROA/KLYH/KDAN...HOWEVER THE
TRANSITION TO VFR WILL BE MORE GRADUAL FOR KBCB...TAKING UNTIL
LATE EVENING. CIGS WILL BE SLOWER TO IMPROVE OVER THE FAR WEST
WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW MAY KEEP KBLF AND KLWB MVFR WITH PASSING SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...RESULTING IN
VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE REGION ON
MONDAY...BRINGING A RETURN OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WAS MALFUNCTIONING
AGAIN. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER BUT THE REPAIR MAY NOT BE UNTIL
MONDAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLYH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STAFF WHEN THE
CONTROL TOWER IS OPEN...OTHERWISE THE VISIBILITY WILL BE MISSING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...PC
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...PC
EQUIPMENT...AMS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 271957
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
257 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION AND BRING COLDER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION...ALONG WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. AS
THE HIGH SLIPS OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
AND WE WILL HAVE FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER BACK TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 256 PM EST THURSDAY...

UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT BUT NOT BEFORE A
PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS BRINGS SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FAVORED
UPSLOPE AREAS OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE 1 OR 2 INCHES IN WESTERN
GREENBRIER ALTHOUGH LIKELY NOT ENOUGH FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA. MAY
NEED TO ISSUE AN SPS OR TWO FOR MORE INTENSE SNOW BANDS. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE IN FULL FORCE OVERNIGHT AS H85 TEMPS DROP FROM
-2C TO -5C RANGE THIS AFTERNOON TO -8C TO -13C BY FRIDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN UP MOST OF THE NIGHT PREVENTING IDEAL
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS BUT STILL EXPECTING A COLD NIGHT FROM UPPER
TEENS IN THE NW TO MID-20S SE. SINGLE-DIGIT WIND CHILLS LIKELY IN
THE NW. FRIDAY WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SHIFTS EAST DURING THE DAY AND TEMPS
STRUGGLE TO REBOUND. A SHORT-WAVE SCOOTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
DURING THE DAY MAY THROW ENOUGH AFTERNOON HIGH CLOUDINESS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES TO IMPEDE WARMUP MUCH BEYOND
LOW 30S NW AND LOW 40S EAST WHICH IS EASILY 15F BELOW CLIMATOLOGY
FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 256 PM EST THURSDAY...

FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD SHAPING UP FOR THE WEEKEND. UPPER TROF WILL
BE PUSHING OFF TO OUR EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS WE ENTER MORE OF A
ZONAL PATTERN. THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SET UP
SHOP TO OUR EAST AND KEEP AN APPROACHING FRONT AT BAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL REALLY GET
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION CRANKING AND EXPECT MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S BY SUNDAY. THE BRISK LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO MAKE
FOR SOME WINDY CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 256 PM EST THURSDAY...

APPROACHING COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH ON MONDAY. BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN DOWNSLOPE EAST OF THE RIDGE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN AGGRESSIVELY WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD
ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN TO OUR TEMPS. CHANCE
POPS STILL WARRANTED THROUGH MIDWEEK DUE TO POSSIBLE UPSLOPE IN
E/SELY FLOW. NEXT APPROACHING LOW IS A FAIRLY SHALLOW AMPLITUDE
WAVE AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE HIGH TO DRIFT TO OUR EAST AND
LINGER A BIT...WITH RETURN FLOW WARMING US BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS
FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM EST THURSDAY...

DEPARTING SURFACE LOW LEAVING A LOT OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS
BEHIND BUT CONDITIONS HAVE GENERALLY IMPROVED INTO MVFR
CATEGORY... WHICH SHOULD PERSIST MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN RAPIDLY FROM THE WEST WILL USHER IN
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WITH WIND SPEEDS
FROM THE WEST GUSTING 15KT TO 25KT... TOPPING 30KT AT TIMES.
CEILINGS WILL ALSO IMPROVE TO VFR FOR KROA/KLYH/KDAN...HOWEVER THE
TRANSITION TO VFR WILL BE MORE GRADUAL FOR KBCB...TAKING UNTIL
LATE EVENING. CIGS WILL BE SLOWER TO IMPROVE OVER THE FAR WEST
WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW MAY KEEP KBLF AND KLWB MVFR WITH PASSING SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...RESULTING IN
VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE REGION ON
MONDAY...BRINGING A RETURN OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WAS MALFUNCTIONING
AGAIN. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER BUT THE REPAIR MAY NOT BE UNTIL
MONDAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLYH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STAFF WHEN THE
CONTROL TOWER IS OPEN...OTHERWISE THE VISIBILITY WILL BE MISSING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...PC
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...PC
EQUIPMENT...AMS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 271957
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
257 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION AND BRING COLDER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION...ALONG WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. AS
THE HIGH SLIPS OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
AND WE WILL HAVE FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER BACK TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 256 PM EST THURSDAY...

UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT BUT NOT BEFORE A
PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS BRINGS SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FAVORED
UPSLOPE AREAS OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE 1 OR 2 INCHES IN WESTERN
GREENBRIER ALTHOUGH LIKELY NOT ENOUGH FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA. MAY
NEED TO ISSUE AN SPS OR TWO FOR MORE INTENSE SNOW BANDS. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE IN FULL FORCE OVERNIGHT AS H85 TEMPS DROP FROM
-2C TO -5C RANGE THIS AFTERNOON TO -8C TO -13C BY FRIDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN UP MOST OF THE NIGHT PREVENTING IDEAL
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS BUT STILL EXPECTING A COLD NIGHT FROM UPPER
TEENS IN THE NW TO MID-20S SE. SINGLE-DIGIT WIND CHILLS LIKELY IN
THE NW. FRIDAY WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SHIFTS EAST DURING THE DAY AND TEMPS
STRUGGLE TO REBOUND. A SHORT-WAVE SCOOTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
DURING THE DAY MAY THROW ENOUGH AFTERNOON HIGH CLOUDINESS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES TO IMPEDE WARMUP MUCH BEYOND
LOW 30S NW AND LOW 40S EAST WHICH IS EASILY 15F BELOW CLIMATOLOGY
FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 256 PM EST THURSDAY...

FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD SHAPING UP FOR THE WEEKEND. UPPER TROF WILL
BE PUSHING OFF TO OUR EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS WE ENTER MORE OF A
ZONAL PATTERN. THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SET UP
SHOP TO OUR EAST AND KEEP AN APPROACHING FRONT AT BAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL REALLY GET
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION CRANKING AND EXPECT MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S BY SUNDAY. THE BRISK LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO MAKE
FOR SOME WINDY CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 256 PM EST THURSDAY...

APPROACHING COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH ON MONDAY. BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN DOWNSLOPE EAST OF THE RIDGE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN AGGRESSIVELY WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD
ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN TO OUR TEMPS. CHANCE
POPS STILL WARRANTED THROUGH MIDWEEK DUE TO POSSIBLE UPSLOPE IN
E/SELY FLOW. NEXT APPROACHING LOW IS A FAIRLY SHALLOW AMPLITUDE
WAVE AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE HIGH TO DRIFT TO OUR EAST AND
LINGER A BIT...WITH RETURN FLOW WARMING US BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS
FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM EST THURSDAY...

DEPARTING SURFACE LOW LEAVING A LOT OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS
BEHIND BUT CONDITIONS HAVE GENERALLY IMPROVED INTO MVFR
CATEGORY... WHICH SHOULD PERSIST MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN RAPIDLY FROM THE WEST WILL USHER IN
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WITH WIND SPEEDS
FROM THE WEST GUSTING 15KT TO 25KT... TOPPING 30KT AT TIMES.
CEILINGS WILL ALSO IMPROVE TO VFR FOR KROA/KLYH/KDAN...HOWEVER THE
TRANSITION TO VFR WILL BE MORE GRADUAL FOR KBCB...TAKING UNTIL
LATE EVENING. CIGS WILL BE SLOWER TO IMPROVE OVER THE FAR WEST
WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW MAY KEEP KBLF AND KLWB MVFR WITH PASSING SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...RESULTING IN
VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE REGION ON
MONDAY...BRINGING A RETURN OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WAS MALFUNCTIONING
AGAIN. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER BUT THE REPAIR MAY NOT BE UNTIL
MONDAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLYH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STAFF WHEN THE
CONTROL TOWER IS OPEN...OTHERWISE THE VISIBILITY WILL BE MISSING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...PC
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...PC
EQUIPMENT...AMS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 271819
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
119 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST
THIS AFTERNOON WHILE A REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THESE
SYSTEMS MAY BRING A FEW SPRINKLES/SHOWERS TO THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN MARYLAND
AND THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT...CLOSER TO THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S NEAR WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT
ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT AND CONFINED MAINLY TO LOCATIONS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT...BUT ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. A PRESSURE SURGE WILL CAUSE
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS AND IT WILL BE COLD DUE TO A NORTHWEST FLOW.
AN UPSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO
LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. MOISTURE WILL BE
PARTIALLY LINED UP WITH THE MAXIMUM DENDRITIC SNOWGROWTH ZONE
UNDERNEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL
ALSO REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH AND THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND
AS WELL. THEREFORE...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE RIDGE TOPS IN WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA ALONG AND WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT. TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THESE AREAS. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY SPILL EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND...EXTREME NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND EASTERN
WEST VIRGINIA...BUT LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
FCST MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT
TO THE LOW 30S NEAR WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. ANY LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT WILL DIMINISH AND SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...IT WILL BE COLD DUE TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE
BUILDING HIGH. MAX TEMPS WILL BE BELOW CLIMO...RANGING FROM THE
20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT AND
SOUTHERN MARYLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
PATTERN SHIFT AS WRN CONUS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS AN UPR TROUGH SHIFTS
SOUTH INTO THE PAC NW. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EAST FROM
THE MIDWEST STATES AND INTO THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. 00Z ECMWF/12Z GFS
SUGGEST LIFT FROM THIS FRONT WILL CAUSE PRECIP INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS FRIDAY NIGHT. IN SPITE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION...THERMAL
PROFILES COOL ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW. LIMITED POPS FOR NOW TO THE NWRN
THREE ZONES (WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT). MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
ELSEWHERE...THOUGH PLENTY OF COLD AIR AND LITTLE MIXING WILL ALLOW
FOR MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S INLAND...UPR 20S NEAR SHORE.

WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IN SWLY FLOW
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES MODERATE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...REACHING NORMAL BY SUNDAY EVENING. TEMPS A BLEND OF
MAV/MET AND SREF OVERNIGHT/MOSGUIDE DURING THE DAY. BY THE TIME
PRECIP RETURNS TO WRN ZONES SATURDAY EVENING...IT SHOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN. NOT EXPECTING FREEZING RAIN AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE
WARM NOSE DESCENDING...WILL HAVE TO LOOKOUT FOR THAT THOUGH. DRY
EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WITH SWLY/SLY FLOW 10 MPH OR SO
MAINTAINED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IN DECENT GRADIENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OFFSHORE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SET UP A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BRING IN
WARMER TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY...AND CROSS THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE REGION ITS NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN.
SOME WET SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES WITH ANY
LEFTOVER SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE AND WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS MONDAY EVENING. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT ONCE
TEMPERATURES DROP...BUT AIRMASS WILL BE MARGINAL SO ANY ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL IS QUESTIONABLE.

A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE /I.E. 1040 MB/ WILL BUILD TO THE
NORTH TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT STALLS TO THE SOUTH...THEN SLOWLY RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR COLD AIR DAMMING
IN THE MODELS...WITH EVEN LOWER RESOLUTION GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS OVER MUCH OF THE
SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. ECMWF IS WARMER AT 850
MB AND DEEPER WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST RESULTING IN MORE
PRECIPITATION AND SUGGESTING A HIGHER ICE POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY WEST
OF THE METRO. GFS IS COLDER AT 850 MB AND WEAKER WITH LOW PRESSURE
TO THE WEST SUGGESTING LIGHTER QPF AND A MORE GENERIC WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW AND RAIN. FOR NOW...STICKING WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW...BUT
WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO MONITOR AND FINE-TUNE OVER THE COMING DAYS
AS POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR OVERRUNNING PRECIP. OVER COLD AIR TO
RESULT IN WINTRY PRECIP OVER AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. LEFT OUT OF HWO FOR NOW BECAUSE 30 PERCENT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT THERE THAT WE WILL BE ISSUING HAZARDS GIVEN LARGE
SPREAD IN TIMING/TEMPERATURES.

MODELS/ENSEMBLES BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER THIS TIME IN RESPONSE TO A
PATTERN CHANGE ALOFT WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW OF PACIFIC ORIGIN TAKING
HOLD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
PRESSURE SURGE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WILL CAUSE NORTHWEST TO GUST
AROUND 20 KNOTS TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TOWARD FRIDAY EVENING.

VFR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CALM FRIDAY NIGHT THEN
SWLY/SLY FLOW INCREASES TO 10-15 KT SATURDAY...10 KT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY W/ S FLOW 10-15 KTS. SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCTD
SHWRS MON EVE W/ FROPA. WINDS BECOME W AND DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10
KTS MON. FLOW BECOMES N THEN E BEHIND FROPA TUE W/ SUB-VFR POSSIBLE
IN PRECIP LATE TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS THIS
EVENING. A PRESSURE SURGE WILL CAUSE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM THROUGH FRIDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE WATERS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

HIGH PRES OVERHEAD FRIDAY EVENING...WITH RETURN FLOW INCREASING
SATURDAY. SLY CHANNELING EXPECTED WITH SCA LIKELY BY LATE MORNING
SATURDAY CONTINUING WELL INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS
LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
SLOWLY CROSS THE WATERS LATE MONDAY. WINDS DIMINISH AS THE FRONT
PASSES...THEN STALLS NEAR THE WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ503.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ501-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ530-531-535-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ532>534-536-537-540-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...BAJ/BJL/DFH
MARINE...BAJ/BJL/DFH








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271819
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
119 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...THEN PUSHES OFFSHORE
THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE ANALYZED FROM CENTRAL NC NORTH INTO CENTRAL
AND ERN VA. ALOFT...STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS IN PLACE OVER
THE SE CONUS...PROVIDING STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (H7 TO H5 OF
7 TO 8 C/KM). WITH ALL OF THIS LIFT...HAVE BUMPED POPS TO 80% ACRS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VA FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS...BUFFERED BY HIGH
CHC TO LIKELY POPS OVER MOST OF THE REST OF THE CWA. NOT A LOT OF
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM SO QPF AMOUNTS WILL AVG ONLY 0.10" MOST
AREAS...LOCALLY TO AROUND .25" IN THE FAR SE. DEW PTS AND SFC WET
BULB TEMPS FROM AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS AND HIGH RES MODEL DATA SUGGEST
RAIN AS PTYPE (ALTHOUGH SOME SLEET OR GRAUPEL COULD BRIEFLY MIX IN
WITH INCREASE IN PRECIP INTENSITY). STILL...NO ACCUMULATION OF
ANYTHING OTHER THAN LIQUID IS EXPECTED AS TEMPS ARE GENLY IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

SOME PARTIAL SUN HAS BEEN OBSERVED ACRS THE ERN SHORE THIS MORNING
BUT SHOULD CLOUD OVER SHORTLY. ELSEWHERE IT HAS BEEN CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY...AND THIS SHOULD PERSIST INTO EARLY TO MID
AFTN...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING POSSIBLE LATE MAINLY OVER THE NORTH
AND WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE LITTLE FROM CURRENT VALUES AND ONLY
TOP OUT IN THE 40S ALL AREAS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRS BUILDS ESE FROM THE MID MS VALLEY TONITE THEN BECOMES
CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA FRI/FRI NIGHT. THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS SE
AND OFF THE SE COAST BY SAT. MAINTAINED DRY CONDITIONS THRU THE
PRD...WITH SOME INCRS IN MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS FRI NIGHT / SAT
(ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE CWA). THIS AS FLOW ALOFT
FLATTENS AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.

TEMPS REMAIN BELOW AVG TONIGHT / FRI FOR THOSE HOLIDAY SHOPPERS.
LOWS IN THE 20S-L30S. HIGHS FRI ONLY 40-45 F. LOWS FRI NITE M20S-
L30S. TEMPS MODERATE A BIT ON SAT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE
SSW. STILL A BIT BELOW AVG WITH HIGHS 50-55 F CENTRAL AND SOUTH
AND IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT-SUN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
THRU THE REGION. SLY FLOW AND INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL
RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS SUN...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S. THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUN
NIGHT...CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA MON. FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED TO BE
DRY OVER THE REGION...EXCEPT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS AND ERN VA PIEDMONT...CLOSEST TO BEST MOISTURE. TEMPS
MON WARM INTO THE MID 60S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
MON NIGHT...LOCATING OVER NEW ENGLAND TUES AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES OVER THE LOCAL AREA...SETTING UP AN IN-SITU CAD WEDGE OVER
THE REGION...WITH NELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. HAVE INTRODUCED LIGHT OVERRUNNING
PRECIP MON NIGHT AND TUES. TUES HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S NW TO
MID 50S SE. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WEDS AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. HIGHS WEDS IN THE MID-UPPER
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG SHORT WAVE WAS PRODUCING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER
SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
PIEDMONT WILL MOVE TO THE EAST WITH INCREASING N/NW WINDS IN ITS
WAKE. THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE TOWARD EVENING ESPECIALLY AT ORF.
AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST...LIGHT RAIN AND LATER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DISSIPATE AT THE TAF SITES FROM WEST TO EAST.

OUTLOOK... VFR AND DRY WX IS INDICATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH AROUND MONDAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
INDICATED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING (5-7
FT NORTH AND 4-6 FT SOUTH)...BUT THEY SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. WILL MAINTAIN SCA FOR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS THRU 7 AM...AND THE NORTHERN WATERS THRU 10 AM. OTW...W-NW
WINDS 5-15 KT WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE BY LATE MORNING.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS THIS AFTN AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT WITH NWLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT
OVER THE BAY/SOUND AND 20-25 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
RESPOND...BUILDING TO 5-6 FT...HIGHEST 20 NM OUT. THEREAFTER...HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS LATE FRI THRU THE WEEKEND...
RESULTING IN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...JDM







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271819
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
119 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...THEN PUSHES OFFSHORE
THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE ANALYZED FROM CENTRAL NC NORTH INTO CENTRAL
AND ERN VA. ALOFT...STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS IN PLACE OVER
THE SE CONUS...PROVIDING STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (H7 TO H5 OF
7 TO 8 C/KM). WITH ALL OF THIS LIFT...HAVE BUMPED POPS TO 80% ACRS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VA FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS...BUFFERED BY HIGH
CHC TO LIKELY POPS OVER MOST OF THE REST OF THE CWA. NOT A LOT OF
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM SO QPF AMOUNTS WILL AVG ONLY 0.10" MOST
AREAS...LOCALLY TO AROUND .25" IN THE FAR SE. DEW PTS AND SFC WET
BULB TEMPS FROM AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS AND HIGH RES MODEL DATA SUGGEST
RAIN AS PTYPE (ALTHOUGH SOME SLEET OR GRAUPEL COULD BRIEFLY MIX IN
WITH INCREASE IN PRECIP INTENSITY). STILL...NO ACCUMULATION OF
ANYTHING OTHER THAN LIQUID IS EXPECTED AS TEMPS ARE GENLY IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

SOME PARTIAL SUN HAS BEEN OBSERVED ACRS THE ERN SHORE THIS MORNING
BUT SHOULD CLOUD OVER SHORTLY. ELSEWHERE IT HAS BEEN CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY...AND THIS SHOULD PERSIST INTO EARLY TO MID
AFTN...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING POSSIBLE LATE MAINLY OVER THE NORTH
AND WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE LITTLE FROM CURRENT VALUES AND ONLY
TOP OUT IN THE 40S ALL AREAS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRS BUILDS ESE FROM THE MID MS VALLEY TONITE THEN BECOMES
CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA FRI/FRI NIGHT. THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS SE
AND OFF THE SE COAST BY SAT. MAINTAINED DRY CONDITIONS THRU THE
PRD...WITH SOME INCRS IN MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS FRI NIGHT / SAT
(ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE CWA). THIS AS FLOW ALOFT
FLATTENS AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.

TEMPS REMAIN BELOW AVG TONIGHT / FRI FOR THOSE HOLIDAY SHOPPERS.
LOWS IN THE 20S-L30S. HIGHS FRI ONLY 40-45 F. LOWS FRI NITE M20S-
L30S. TEMPS MODERATE A BIT ON SAT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE
SSW. STILL A BIT BELOW AVG WITH HIGHS 50-55 F CENTRAL AND SOUTH
AND IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT-SUN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
THRU THE REGION. SLY FLOW AND INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL
RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS SUN...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S. THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUN
NIGHT...CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA MON. FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED TO BE
DRY OVER THE REGION...EXCEPT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS AND ERN VA PIEDMONT...CLOSEST TO BEST MOISTURE. TEMPS
MON WARM INTO THE MID 60S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
MON NIGHT...LOCATING OVER NEW ENGLAND TUES AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES OVER THE LOCAL AREA...SETTING UP AN IN-SITU CAD WEDGE OVER
THE REGION...WITH NELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. HAVE INTRODUCED LIGHT OVERRUNNING
PRECIP MON NIGHT AND TUES. TUES HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S NW TO
MID 50S SE. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WEDS AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. HIGHS WEDS IN THE MID-UPPER
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG SHORT WAVE WAS PRODUCING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER
SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
PIEDMONT WILL MOVE TO THE EAST WITH INCREASING N/NW WINDS IN ITS
WAKE. THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE TOWARD EVENING ESPECIALLY AT ORF.
AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST...LIGHT RAIN AND LATER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DISSIPATE AT THE TAF SITES FROM WEST TO EAST.

OUTLOOK... VFR AND DRY WX IS INDICATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH AROUND MONDAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
INDICATED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING (5-7
FT NORTH AND 4-6 FT SOUTH)...BUT THEY SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. WILL MAINTAIN SCA FOR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS THRU 7 AM...AND THE NORTHERN WATERS THRU 10 AM. OTW...W-NW
WINDS 5-15 KT WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE BY LATE MORNING.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS THIS AFTN AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT WITH NWLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT
OVER THE BAY/SOUND AND 20-25 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
RESPOND...BUILDING TO 5-6 FT...HIGHEST 20 NM OUT. THEREAFTER...HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS LATE FRI THRU THE WEEKEND...
RESULTING IN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...JDM







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271819
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
119 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...THEN PUSHES OFFSHORE
THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE ANALYZED FROM CENTRAL NC NORTH INTO CENTRAL
AND ERN VA. ALOFT...STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS IN PLACE OVER
THE SE CONUS...PROVIDING STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (H7 TO H5 OF
7 TO 8 C/KM). WITH ALL OF THIS LIFT...HAVE BUMPED POPS TO 80% ACRS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VA FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS...BUFFERED BY HIGH
CHC TO LIKELY POPS OVER MOST OF THE REST OF THE CWA. NOT A LOT OF
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM SO QPF AMOUNTS WILL AVG ONLY 0.10" MOST
AREAS...LOCALLY TO AROUND .25" IN THE FAR SE. DEW PTS AND SFC WET
BULB TEMPS FROM AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS AND HIGH RES MODEL DATA SUGGEST
RAIN AS PTYPE (ALTHOUGH SOME SLEET OR GRAUPEL COULD BRIEFLY MIX IN
WITH INCREASE IN PRECIP INTENSITY). STILL...NO ACCUMULATION OF
ANYTHING OTHER THAN LIQUID IS EXPECTED AS TEMPS ARE GENLY IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

SOME PARTIAL SUN HAS BEEN OBSERVED ACRS THE ERN SHORE THIS MORNING
BUT SHOULD CLOUD OVER SHORTLY. ELSEWHERE IT HAS BEEN CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY...AND THIS SHOULD PERSIST INTO EARLY TO MID
AFTN...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING POSSIBLE LATE MAINLY OVER THE NORTH
AND WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE LITTLE FROM CURRENT VALUES AND ONLY
TOP OUT IN THE 40S ALL AREAS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRS BUILDS ESE FROM THE MID MS VALLEY TONITE THEN BECOMES
CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA FRI/FRI NIGHT. THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS SE
AND OFF THE SE COAST BY SAT. MAINTAINED DRY CONDITIONS THRU THE
PRD...WITH SOME INCRS IN MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS FRI NIGHT / SAT
(ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE CWA). THIS AS FLOW ALOFT
FLATTENS AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.

TEMPS REMAIN BELOW AVG TONIGHT / FRI FOR THOSE HOLIDAY SHOPPERS.
LOWS IN THE 20S-L30S. HIGHS FRI ONLY 40-45 F. LOWS FRI NITE M20S-
L30S. TEMPS MODERATE A BIT ON SAT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE
SSW. STILL A BIT BELOW AVG WITH HIGHS 50-55 F CENTRAL AND SOUTH
AND IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT-SUN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
THRU THE REGION. SLY FLOW AND INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL
RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS SUN...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S. THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUN
NIGHT...CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA MON. FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED TO BE
DRY OVER THE REGION...EXCEPT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS AND ERN VA PIEDMONT...CLOSEST TO BEST MOISTURE. TEMPS
MON WARM INTO THE MID 60S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
MON NIGHT...LOCATING OVER NEW ENGLAND TUES AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES OVER THE LOCAL AREA...SETTING UP AN IN-SITU CAD WEDGE OVER
THE REGION...WITH NELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. HAVE INTRODUCED LIGHT OVERRUNNING
PRECIP MON NIGHT AND TUES. TUES HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S NW TO
MID 50S SE. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WEDS AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. HIGHS WEDS IN THE MID-UPPER
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG SHORT WAVE WAS PRODUCING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER
SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
PIEDMONT WILL MOVE TO THE EAST WITH INCREASING N/NW WINDS IN ITS
WAKE. THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE TOWARD EVENING ESPECIALLY AT ORF.
AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST...LIGHT RAIN AND LATER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DISSIPATE AT THE TAF SITES FROM WEST TO EAST.

OUTLOOK... VFR AND DRY WX IS INDICATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH AROUND MONDAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
INDICATED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING (5-7
FT NORTH AND 4-6 FT SOUTH)...BUT THEY SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. WILL MAINTAIN SCA FOR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS THRU 7 AM...AND THE NORTHERN WATERS THRU 10 AM. OTW...W-NW
WINDS 5-15 KT WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE BY LATE MORNING.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS THIS AFTN AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT WITH NWLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT
OVER THE BAY/SOUND AND 20-25 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
RESPOND...BUILDING TO 5-6 FT...HIGHEST 20 NM OUT. THEREAFTER...HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS LATE FRI THRU THE WEEKEND...
RESULTING IN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...JDM







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271819
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
119 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...THEN PUSHES OFFSHORE
THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE ANALYZED FROM CENTRAL NC NORTH INTO CENTRAL
AND ERN VA. ALOFT...STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS IN PLACE OVER
THE SE CONUS...PROVIDING STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (H7 TO H5 OF
7 TO 8 C/KM). WITH ALL OF THIS LIFT...HAVE BUMPED POPS TO 80% ACRS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VA FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS...BUFFERED BY HIGH
CHC TO LIKELY POPS OVER MOST OF THE REST OF THE CWA. NOT A LOT OF
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM SO QPF AMOUNTS WILL AVG ONLY 0.10" MOST
AREAS...LOCALLY TO AROUND .25" IN THE FAR SE. DEW PTS AND SFC WET
BULB TEMPS FROM AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS AND HIGH RES MODEL DATA SUGGEST
RAIN AS PTYPE (ALTHOUGH SOME SLEET OR GRAUPEL COULD BRIEFLY MIX IN
WITH INCREASE IN PRECIP INTENSITY). STILL...NO ACCUMULATION OF
ANYTHING OTHER THAN LIQUID IS EXPECTED AS TEMPS ARE GENLY IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

SOME PARTIAL SUN HAS BEEN OBSERVED ACRS THE ERN SHORE THIS MORNING
BUT SHOULD CLOUD OVER SHORTLY. ELSEWHERE IT HAS BEEN CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY...AND THIS SHOULD PERSIST INTO EARLY TO MID
AFTN...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING POSSIBLE LATE MAINLY OVER THE NORTH
AND WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE LITTLE FROM CURRENT VALUES AND ONLY
TOP OUT IN THE 40S ALL AREAS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRS BUILDS ESE FROM THE MID MS VALLEY TONITE THEN BECOMES
CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA FRI/FRI NIGHT. THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS SE
AND OFF THE SE COAST BY SAT. MAINTAINED DRY CONDITIONS THRU THE
PRD...WITH SOME INCRS IN MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS FRI NIGHT / SAT
(ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE CWA). THIS AS FLOW ALOFT
FLATTENS AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.

TEMPS REMAIN BELOW AVG TONIGHT / FRI FOR THOSE HOLIDAY SHOPPERS.
LOWS IN THE 20S-L30S. HIGHS FRI ONLY 40-45 F. LOWS FRI NITE M20S-
L30S. TEMPS MODERATE A BIT ON SAT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE
SSW. STILL A BIT BELOW AVG WITH HIGHS 50-55 F CENTRAL AND SOUTH
AND IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT-SUN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
THRU THE REGION. SLY FLOW AND INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL
RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS SUN...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S. THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUN
NIGHT...CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA MON. FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED TO BE
DRY OVER THE REGION...EXCEPT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS AND ERN VA PIEDMONT...CLOSEST TO BEST MOISTURE. TEMPS
MON WARM INTO THE MID 60S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
MON NIGHT...LOCATING OVER NEW ENGLAND TUES AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES OVER THE LOCAL AREA...SETTING UP AN IN-SITU CAD WEDGE OVER
THE REGION...WITH NELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. HAVE INTRODUCED LIGHT OVERRUNNING
PRECIP MON NIGHT AND TUES. TUES HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S NW TO
MID 50S SE. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WEDS AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. HIGHS WEDS IN THE MID-UPPER
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG SHORT WAVE WAS PRODUCING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER
SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
PIEDMONT WILL MOVE TO THE EAST WITH INCREASING N/NW WINDS IN ITS
WAKE. THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE TOWARD EVENING ESPECIALLY AT ORF.
AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST...LIGHT RAIN AND LATER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DISSIPATE AT THE TAF SITES FROM WEST TO EAST.

OUTLOOK... VFR AND DRY WX IS INDICATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH AROUND MONDAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
INDICATED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING (5-7
FT NORTH AND 4-6 FT SOUTH)...BUT THEY SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. WILL MAINTAIN SCA FOR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS THRU 7 AM...AND THE NORTHERN WATERS THRU 10 AM. OTW...W-NW
WINDS 5-15 KT WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE BY LATE MORNING.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS THIS AFTN AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT WITH NWLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT
OVER THE BAY/SOUND AND 20-25 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
RESPOND...BUILDING TO 5-6 FT...HIGHEST 20 NM OUT. THEREAFTER...HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS LATE FRI THRU THE WEEKEND...
RESULTING IN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...JDM







000
FXUS61 KRNK 271807
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
107 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND RESULTING IN WARMER...AND DRIER WEATHER INTO
SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM EST THURSDAY...

UPDATED POP GRIDS FOR TRENDS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING CLIPPER
SYSTEM. SNOWFALL IN THE WEST AND RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EAST HAVE
ALL BUT ENDED AND COLD ADVECTION WILL SET IN THIS AFTERNOON AS H85
TEMPS BEGIN TO TUMBLE AND WINDS INCREASE FROM THE NW. TEMPS WILL
HOLD IN THE 30S WEST AND 40S EAST UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...
NOT TOO PLEASANT FOR WALKING OFF THE TURKEY DINNER.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
AS OF 230 AM EST THURSDAY...

COLD HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN BEHIND THE PASSING CLIPPER
TYPE WAVE TONIGHT WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE LEADING TO ADDED UPSLOPE
-SHSN ESPCLY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SOME ADDED ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE
BUT THINKING WONT NEED MORE HEADLINES WITH AN INCH OR SO ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES AND FLURRIES OUT TO THE BLUE RIDGE EARLY THIS
EVENING. OTRW GRADUAL CLEARING OUTSIDE THE UPSLOPE AREAS AS
MOISTURE BECOMES SHALLOW AND MIXES OUT IN BETTER DOWNSLOPING OUT
EAST. HOWEVER DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE OFFSHORE WAVE
DEEPENING AND STEADY 85H COLD ADVECTION...TO MAKE WINDS QUITE
GUSTY AND POSSIBLY JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE HIGHER
RIDGES IN NW NC. OTRW QUITE COLD AGAIN WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE OF
MOS GUIDANCE GIVEN MIXING OFFSET OF COLD ADVECTION...EXCEPT IN
SPOTS OVER THE WEST WHERE SOME SNOW COVER WILL RESIDE AND LIKELY
HELP PUSH LOWS INTO THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EST THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...CAUSING
RESIDUAL UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN RIDGES TO COME TO
AN END BY LUNCHTIME. ALTHOUGH A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HAVE
SHIFTED OVER THE ATLANTIC BY SUNRISE...HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN DURING
THE AFTERNOON WILL LIMIT HEATING...AND EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 30S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA TO THE LOW
40S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA. LOWS
WILL BE ON CHILLY SIDE...GENERALLY FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
20S...WITH A FEW UPPER TEENS IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO A WARM UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
A WARM FRONT PASSING ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. MAY SEE A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE ON SUNDAY AS GULF MOISTURE FLOWS NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. EXPECT SATURDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S...WITH SUNDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS SOME 10
DEGREES WARMER. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
APPALACHIAN CHAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE
WESTERN RIDGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL TRY AND PUSH SOUTH
OF THE AREA. WITH A STRONG AND BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTH...
EXPECTING LATER MODEL RUNS TO DELAY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL
SOMETIME TUESDAY. SINCE THE ECM/GFS HAS THIS FRONT ENTERING THE AREA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. ALSO HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS TUESDAY FOR A
POSSIBLE FRONTAL PASSAGE OR FOR THE FRONT STALLING IN THE REGION.
EITHER WAY AND/OR EITHER DAY...TEMPERATURES AND THICKNESSES ARE WARM
TO KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION FALLING AS RAIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVER NEW ENGLAND FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND REMAIN
IN THE AREA TROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. EVEN THOUGH THIS
WEDGE IS STRONG (1035MB)...MODELS REMAINING WARM AND CLOSE TO
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM EST THURSDAY...

DEPARTING SURFACE LOW LEAVING A LOT OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS
BEHIND BUT CONDITIONS HAVE GENERALLY IMPROVED INTO MVFR
CATEGORY... WHICH SHOULD PERSIST MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN RAPIDLY FROM THE WEST WILL USHER IN
STRONG NOTRHWEST WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WITH WIND SPEEDS
FROM THE WEST GUSTING 15KT TO 25KT... TOPPING 30KT AT TIMES.
CEILINGS WILL ALSO IMPROVE TO VFR FOR KROA/KLYH/KDAN...HOWEVER THE
TRANSITION TO VFR WILL BE MORE GRADUAL FOR KBCB...TAKING UNTIL
LATE EVENING. CIGS WILL BE SLOWER TO IMPROVE OVER THE FAR WEST
WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW MAY KEEP KBLF AND KLWB MVFR WITH PASSING SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...RESULTING IN
VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE REGION ON
MONDAY...BRINGING A RETURN OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WAS MALFUNCTIONING
AGAIN. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER BUT THE REPAIR MAY NOT BE UNTIL
MONDAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLYH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STAFF WHEN THE
CONTROL TOWER IS OPEN...OTHERWISE THE VISIBILITY WILL BE MISSING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/MBS
NEAR TERM...JH/PC
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...JH/PC
EQUIPMENT...AMS



000
FXUS61 KRNK 271807
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
107 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND RESULTING IN WARMER...AND DRIER WEATHER INTO
SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM EST THURSDAY...

UPDATED POP GRIDS FOR TRENDS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING CLIPPER
SYSTEM. SNOWFALL IN THE WEST AND RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EAST HAVE
ALL BUT ENDED AND COLD ADVECTION WILL SET IN THIS AFTERNOON AS H85
TEMPS BEGIN TO TUMBLE AND WINDS INCREASE FROM THE NW. TEMPS WILL
HOLD IN THE 30S WEST AND 40S EAST UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...
NOT TOO PLEASANT FOR WALKING OFF THE TURKEY DINNER.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
AS OF 230 AM EST THURSDAY...

COLD HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN BEHIND THE PASSING CLIPPER
TYPE WAVE TONIGHT WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE LEADING TO ADDED UPSLOPE
-SHSN ESPCLY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SOME ADDED ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE
BUT THINKING WONT NEED MORE HEADLINES WITH AN INCH OR SO ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES AND FLURRIES OUT TO THE BLUE RIDGE EARLY THIS
EVENING. OTRW GRADUAL CLEARING OUTSIDE THE UPSLOPE AREAS AS
MOISTURE BECOMES SHALLOW AND MIXES OUT IN BETTER DOWNSLOPING OUT
EAST. HOWEVER DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE OFFSHORE WAVE
DEEPENING AND STEADY 85H COLD ADVECTION...TO MAKE WINDS QUITE
GUSTY AND POSSIBLY JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE HIGHER
RIDGES IN NW NC. OTRW QUITE COLD AGAIN WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE OF
MOS GUIDANCE GIVEN MIXING OFFSET OF COLD ADVECTION...EXCEPT IN
SPOTS OVER THE WEST WHERE SOME SNOW COVER WILL RESIDE AND LIKELY
HELP PUSH LOWS INTO THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EST THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...CAUSING
RESIDUAL UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN RIDGES TO COME TO
AN END BY LUNCHTIME. ALTHOUGH A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HAVE
SHIFTED OVER THE ATLANTIC BY SUNRISE...HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN DURING
THE AFTERNOON WILL LIMIT HEATING...AND EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 30S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA TO THE LOW
40S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA. LOWS
WILL BE ON CHILLY SIDE...GENERALLY FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
20S...WITH A FEW UPPER TEENS IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO A WARM UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
A WARM FRONT PASSING ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. MAY SEE A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE ON SUNDAY AS GULF MOISTURE FLOWS NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. EXPECT SATURDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S...WITH SUNDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS SOME 10
DEGREES WARMER. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
APPALACHIAN CHAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE
WESTERN RIDGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL TRY AND PUSH SOUTH
OF THE AREA. WITH A STRONG AND BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTH...
EXPECTING LATER MODEL RUNS TO DELAY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL
SOMETIME TUESDAY. SINCE THE ECM/GFS HAS THIS FRONT ENTERING THE AREA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. ALSO HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS TUESDAY FOR A
POSSIBLE FRONTAL PASSAGE OR FOR THE FRONT STALLING IN THE REGION.
EITHER WAY AND/OR EITHER DAY...TEMPERATURES AND THICKNESSES ARE WARM
TO KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION FALLING AS RAIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVER NEW ENGLAND FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND REMAIN
IN THE AREA TROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. EVEN THOUGH THIS
WEDGE IS STRONG (1035MB)...MODELS REMAINING WARM AND CLOSE TO
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM EST THURSDAY...

DEPARTING SURFACE LOW LEAVING A LOT OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS
BEHIND BUT CONDITIONS HAVE GENERALLY IMPROVED INTO MVFR
CATEGORY... WHICH SHOULD PERSIST MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN RAPIDLY FROM THE WEST WILL USHER IN
STRONG NOTRHWEST WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WITH WIND SPEEDS
FROM THE WEST GUSTING 15KT TO 25KT... TOPPING 30KT AT TIMES.
CEILINGS WILL ALSO IMPROVE TO VFR FOR KROA/KLYH/KDAN...HOWEVER THE
TRANSITION TO VFR WILL BE MORE GRADUAL FOR KBCB...TAKING UNTIL
LATE EVENING. CIGS WILL BE SLOWER TO IMPROVE OVER THE FAR WEST
WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW MAY KEEP KBLF AND KLWB MVFR WITH PASSING SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...RESULTING IN
VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE REGION ON
MONDAY...BRINGING A RETURN OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WAS MALFUNCTIONING
AGAIN. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER BUT THE REPAIR MAY NOT BE UNTIL
MONDAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLYH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STAFF WHEN THE
CONTROL TOWER IS OPEN...OTHERWISE THE VISIBILITY WILL BE MISSING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/MBS
NEAR TERM...JH/PC
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...JH/PC
EQUIPMENT...AMS



000
FXUS61 KRNK 271807
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
107 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND RESULTING IN WARMER...AND DRIER WEATHER INTO
SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM EST THURSDAY...

UPDATED POP GRIDS FOR TRENDS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING CLIPPER
SYSTEM. SNOWFALL IN THE WEST AND RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EAST HAVE
ALL BUT ENDED AND COLD ADVECTION WILL SET IN THIS AFTERNOON AS H85
TEMPS BEGIN TO TUMBLE AND WINDS INCREASE FROM THE NW. TEMPS WILL
HOLD IN THE 30S WEST AND 40S EAST UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...
NOT TOO PLEASANT FOR WALKING OFF THE TURKEY DINNER.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
AS OF 230 AM EST THURSDAY...

COLD HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN BEHIND THE PASSING CLIPPER
TYPE WAVE TONIGHT WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE LEADING TO ADDED UPSLOPE
-SHSN ESPCLY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SOME ADDED ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE
BUT THINKING WONT NEED MORE HEADLINES WITH AN INCH OR SO ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES AND FLURRIES OUT TO THE BLUE RIDGE EARLY THIS
EVENING. OTRW GRADUAL CLEARING OUTSIDE THE UPSLOPE AREAS AS
MOISTURE BECOMES SHALLOW AND MIXES OUT IN BETTER DOWNSLOPING OUT
EAST. HOWEVER DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE OFFSHORE WAVE
DEEPENING AND STEADY 85H COLD ADVECTION...TO MAKE WINDS QUITE
GUSTY AND POSSIBLY JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE HIGHER
RIDGES IN NW NC. OTRW QUITE COLD AGAIN WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE OF
MOS GUIDANCE GIVEN MIXING OFFSET OF COLD ADVECTION...EXCEPT IN
SPOTS OVER THE WEST WHERE SOME SNOW COVER WILL RESIDE AND LIKELY
HELP PUSH LOWS INTO THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EST THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...CAUSING
RESIDUAL UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN RIDGES TO COME TO
AN END BY LUNCHTIME. ALTHOUGH A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HAVE
SHIFTED OVER THE ATLANTIC BY SUNRISE...HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN DURING
THE AFTERNOON WILL LIMIT HEATING...AND EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 30S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA TO THE LOW
40S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA. LOWS
WILL BE ON CHILLY SIDE...GENERALLY FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
20S...WITH A FEW UPPER TEENS IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO A WARM UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
A WARM FRONT PASSING ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. MAY SEE A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE ON SUNDAY AS GULF MOISTURE FLOWS NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. EXPECT SATURDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S...WITH SUNDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS SOME 10
DEGREES WARMER. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
APPALACHIAN CHAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE
WESTERN RIDGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL TRY AND PUSH SOUTH
OF THE AREA. WITH A STRONG AND BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTH...
EXPECTING LATER MODEL RUNS TO DELAY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL
SOMETIME TUESDAY. SINCE THE ECM/GFS HAS THIS FRONT ENTERING THE AREA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. ALSO HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS TUESDAY FOR A
POSSIBLE FRONTAL PASSAGE OR FOR THE FRONT STALLING IN THE REGION.
EITHER WAY AND/OR EITHER DAY...TEMPERATURES AND THICKNESSES ARE WARM
TO KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION FALLING AS RAIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVER NEW ENGLAND FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND REMAIN
IN THE AREA TROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. EVEN THOUGH THIS
WEDGE IS STRONG (1035MB)...MODELS REMAINING WARM AND CLOSE TO
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM EST THURSDAY...

DEPARTING SURFACE LOW LEAVING A LOT OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS
BEHIND BUT CONDITIONS HAVE GENERALLY IMPROVED INTO MVFR
CATEGORY... WHICH SHOULD PERSIST MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN RAPIDLY FROM THE WEST WILL USHER IN
STRONG NOTRHWEST WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WITH WIND SPEEDS
FROM THE WEST GUSTING 15KT TO 25KT... TOPPING 30KT AT TIMES.
CEILINGS WILL ALSO IMPROVE TO VFR FOR KROA/KLYH/KDAN...HOWEVER THE
TRANSITION TO VFR WILL BE MORE GRADUAL FOR KBCB...TAKING UNTIL
LATE EVENING. CIGS WILL BE SLOWER TO IMPROVE OVER THE FAR WEST
WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW MAY KEEP KBLF AND KLWB MVFR WITH PASSING SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...RESULTING IN
VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE REGION ON
MONDAY...BRINGING A RETURN OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WAS MALFUNCTIONING
AGAIN. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER BUT THE REPAIR MAY NOT BE UNTIL
MONDAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLYH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STAFF WHEN THE
CONTROL TOWER IS OPEN...OTHERWISE THE VISIBILITY WILL BE MISSING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/MBS
NEAR TERM...JH/PC
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...JH/PC
EQUIPMENT...AMS



000
FXUS61 KRNK 271807
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
107 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND RESULTING IN WARMER...AND DRIER WEATHER INTO
SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM EST THURSDAY...

UPDATED POP GRIDS FOR TRENDS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING CLIPPER
SYSTEM. SNOWFALL IN THE WEST AND RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EAST HAVE
ALL BUT ENDED AND COLD ADVECTION WILL SET IN THIS AFTERNOON AS H85
TEMPS BEGIN TO TUMBLE AND WINDS INCREASE FROM THE NW. TEMPS WILL
HOLD IN THE 30S WEST AND 40S EAST UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...
NOT TOO PLEASANT FOR WALKING OFF THE TURKEY DINNER.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
AS OF 230 AM EST THURSDAY...

COLD HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN BEHIND THE PASSING CLIPPER
TYPE WAVE TONIGHT WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE LEADING TO ADDED UPSLOPE
-SHSN ESPCLY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SOME ADDED ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE
BUT THINKING WONT NEED MORE HEADLINES WITH AN INCH OR SO ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES AND FLURRIES OUT TO THE BLUE RIDGE EARLY THIS
EVENING. OTRW GRADUAL CLEARING OUTSIDE THE UPSLOPE AREAS AS
MOISTURE BECOMES SHALLOW AND MIXES OUT IN BETTER DOWNSLOPING OUT
EAST. HOWEVER DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE OFFSHORE WAVE
DEEPENING AND STEADY 85H COLD ADVECTION...TO MAKE WINDS QUITE
GUSTY AND POSSIBLY JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE HIGHER
RIDGES IN NW NC. OTRW QUITE COLD AGAIN WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE OF
MOS GUIDANCE GIVEN MIXING OFFSET OF COLD ADVECTION...EXCEPT IN
SPOTS OVER THE WEST WHERE SOME SNOW COVER WILL RESIDE AND LIKELY
HELP PUSH LOWS INTO THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EST THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...CAUSING
RESIDUAL UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN RIDGES TO COME TO
AN END BY LUNCHTIME. ALTHOUGH A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HAVE
SHIFTED OVER THE ATLANTIC BY SUNRISE...HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN DURING
THE AFTERNOON WILL LIMIT HEATING...AND EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 30S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA TO THE LOW
40S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA. LOWS
WILL BE ON CHILLY SIDE...GENERALLY FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
20S...WITH A FEW UPPER TEENS IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO A WARM UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
A WARM FRONT PASSING ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. MAY SEE A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE ON SUNDAY AS GULF MOISTURE FLOWS NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. EXPECT SATURDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S...WITH SUNDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS SOME 10
DEGREES WARMER. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
APPALACHIAN CHAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE
WESTERN RIDGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL TRY AND PUSH SOUTH
OF THE AREA. WITH A STRONG AND BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTH...
EXPECTING LATER MODEL RUNS TO DELAY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL
SOMETIME TUESDAY. SINCE THE ECM/GFS HAS THIS FRONT ENTERING THE AREA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. ALSO HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS TUESDAY FOR A
POSSIBLE FRONTAL PASSAGE OR FOR THE FRONT STALLING IN THE REGION.
EITHER WAY AND/OR EITHER DAY...TEMPERATURES AND THICKNESSES ARE WARM
TO KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION FALLING AS RAIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVER NEW ENGLAND FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND REMAIN
IN THE AREA TROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. EVEN THOUGH THIS
WEDGE IS STRONG (1035MB)...MODELS REMAINING WARM AND CLOSE TO
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM EST THURSDAY...

DEPARTING SURFACE LOW LEAVING A LOT OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS
BEHIND BUT CONDITIONS HAVE GENERALLY IMPROVED INTO MVFR
CATEGORY... WHICH SHOULD PERSIST MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN RAPIDLY FROM THE WEST WILL USHER IN
STRONG NOTRHWEST WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WITH WIND SPEEDS
FROM THE WEST GUSTING 15KT TO 25KT... TOPPING 30KT AT TIMES.
CEILINGS WILL ALSO IMPROVE TO VFR FOR KROA/KLYH/KDAN...HOWEVER THE
TRANSITION TO VFR WILL BE MORE GRADUAL FOR KBCB...TAKING UNTIL
LATE EVENING. CIGS WILL BE SLOWER TO IMPROVE OVER THE FAR WEST
WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW MAY KEEP KBLF AND KLWB MVFR WITH PASSING SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...RESULTING IN
VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE REGION ON
MONDAY...BRINGING A RETURN OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WAS MALFUNCTIONING
AGAIN. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER BUT THE REPAIR MAY NOT BE UNTIL
MONDAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLYH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STAFF WHEN THE
CONTROL TOWER IS OPEN...OTHERWISE THE VISIBILITY WILL BE MISSING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/MBS
NEAR TERM...JH/PC
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...JH/PC
EQUIPMENT...AMS



000
FXUS61 KRNK 271740
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1240 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND RESULTING IN WARMER...AND DRIER WEATHER INTO
SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1130 AM EST THURSDAY...

WILL BE DROPPING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FAR SW COUNTIES ON
SCHEDULE AT NOON. WILL STILL SEE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BUT WITH SURFACE WAVE WELL EAST WINDS
WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE WEST WITH A DRYING COMPONENT. A FEW
HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS..OVER 3000 FEET... REPORTED ABOUT 3
INCHES FROM THIS EVENT IN ADDITION TO WHATEVER FELL YESTERDAY.
THE AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND QUITE
CHILLY FOR ANY BACKYARD FOOTBALL GAMES...MID-30S IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO MID-40S FAR EAST...WHICH IS 10-15F BELOW LATE NOVEMBER NORMALS.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
AS OF 230 AM EST THURSDAY

COLD HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN BEHIND THE PASSING CLIPPER
TYPE WAVE TONIGHT WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE LEADING TO ADDED UPSLOPE
-SHSN ESPCLY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SOME ADDED ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE
BUT THINKING WONT NEED MORE HEADLINES WITH AN INCH OR SO ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES AND FLURRIES OUT TO THE BLUE RIDGE EARLY THIS
EVENING. OTRW GRADUAL CLEARING OUTSIDE THE UPSLOPE AREAS AS
MOISTURE BECOMES SHALLOW AND MIXES OUT IN BETTER DOWNSLOPING OUT
EAST. HOWEVER DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE OFFSHORE WAVE
DEEPENING AND STEADY 85H COLD ADVECTION...TO MAKE WINDS QUITE
GUSTY AND POSSIBLY JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE HIGHER
RIDGES IN NW NC. OTRW QUITE COLD AGAIN WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE OF
MOS GUIDANCE GIVEN MIXING OFFSET OF COLD ADVECTION...EXCEPT IN
SPOTS OVER THE WEST WHERE SOME SNOW COVER WILL RESIDE AND LIKELY
HELP PUSH LOWS INTO THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EST THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...CAUSING
RESIDUAL UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN RIDGES TO COME TO
AN END BY LUNCHTIME. ALTHOUGH A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HAVE
SHIFTED OVER THE ATLANTIC BY SUNRISE...HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN DURING
THE AFTERNOON WILL LIMIT HEATING...AND EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 30S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA TO THE LOW
40S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA. LOWS
WILL BE ON CHILLY SIDE...GENERALLY FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
20S...WITH A FEW UPPER TEENS IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO A WARM UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
A WARM FRONT PASSING ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. MAY SEE A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE ON SUNDAY AS GULF MOISTURE FLOWS NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. EXPECT SATURDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S...WITH SUNDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS SOME 10
DEGREES WARMER. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
APPALACHIAN CHAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE
WESTERN RIDGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL TRY AND PUSH SOUTH
OF THE AREA. WITH A STRONG AND BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTH...
EXPECTING LATER MODEL RUNS TO DELAY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL
SOMETIME TUESDAY. SINCE THE ECM/GFS HAS THIS FRONT ENTERING THE AREA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. ALSO HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS TUESDAY FOR A
POSSIBLE FRONTAL PASSAGE OR FOR THE FRONT STALLING IN THE REGION.
EITHER WAY AND/OR EITHER DAY...TEMPERATURES AND THICKNESSES ARE WARM
TO KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION FALLING AS RAIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVER NEW ENGLAND FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND REMAIN
IN THE AREA TROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. EVEN THOUGH THIS
WEDGE IS STRONG (1035MB)...MODELS REMAINING WARM AND CLOSE TO
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM EST THURSDAY...

DEPARTING SURFACE LOW LEAVING A LOT OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS
BEHIND BUT CONDITIONS HAVE GENERALLY IMPROVED INTO MVFR
CATEGORY... WHICH SHOULD PERSIST MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN RAPIDLY FROM THE WEST WILL USHER IN
STRONG NOTRHWEST WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WITH WIND SPEEDS
FROM THE WEST GUSTING 15KT TO 25KT... TOPPING 30KT AT TIMES.
CEILINGS WILL ALSO IMPROVE TO VFR FOR KROA/KLYH/KDAN...HOWEVER THE
TRANSITION TO VFR WILL BE MORE GRADUAL FOR KBCB...TAKING UNTIL
LATE EVENING. CIGS WILL BE SLOWER TO IMPROVE OVER THE FAR WEST
WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW MAY KEEP KBLF AND KLWB MVFR WITH PASSING SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...RESULTING IN
VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE REGION ON
MONDAY...BRINGING A RETURN OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WAS MALFUNCTIONING
AGAIN. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER BUT THE REPAIR MAY NOT BE UNTIL
MONDAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLYH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STAFF WHEN THE
CONTROL TOWER IS OPEN...OTHERWISE THE VISIBILITY WILL BE MISSING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/MBS
NEAR TERM...JH/PC
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...JH/PC
EQUIPMENT...AMS



000
FXUS61 KRNK 271740
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1240 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND RESULTING IN WARMER...AND DRIER WEATHER INTO
SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1130 AM EST THURSDAY...

WILL BE DROPPING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FAR SW COUNTIES ON
SCHEDULE AT NOON. WILL STILL SEE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BUT WITH SURFACE WAVE WELL EAST WINDS
WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE WEST WITH A DRYING COMPONENT. A FEW
HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS..OVER 3000 FEET... REPORTED ABOUT 3
INCHES FROM THIS EVENT IN ADDITION TO WHATEVER FELL YESTERDAY.
THE AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND QUITE
CHILLY FOR ANY BACKYARD FOOTBALL GAMES...MID-30S IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO MID-40S FAR EAST...WHICH IS 10-15F BELOW LATE NOVEMBER NORMALS.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
AS OF 230 AM EST THURSDAY

COLD HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN BEHIND THE PASSING CLIPPER
TYPE WAVE TONIGHT WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE LEADING TO ADDED UPSLOPE
-SHSN ESPCLY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SOME ADDED ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE
BUT THINKING WONT NEED MORE HEADLINES WITH AN INCH OR SO ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES AND FLURRIES OUT TO THE BLUE RIDGE EARLY THIS
EVENING. OTRW GRADUAL CLEARING OUTSIDE THE UPSLOPE AREAS AS
MOISTURE BECOMES SHALLOW AND MIXES OUT IN BETTER DOWNSLOPING OUT
EAST. HOWEVER DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE OFFSHORE WAVE
DEEPENING AND STEADY 85H COLD ADVECTION...TO MAKE WINDS QUITE
GUSTY AND POSSIBLY JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE HIGHER
RIDGES IN NW NC. OTRW QUITE COLD AGAIN WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE OF
MOS GUIDANCE GIVEN MIXING OFFSET OF COLD ADVECTION...EXCEPT IN
SPOTS OVER THE WEST WHERE SOME SNOW COVER WILL RESIDE AND LIKELY
HELP PUSH LOWS INTO THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EST THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...CAUSING
RESIDUAL UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN RIDGES TO COME TO
AN END BY LUNCHTIME. ALTHOUGH A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HAVE
SHIFTED OVER THE ATLANTIC BY SUNRISE...HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN DURING
THE AFTERNOON WILL LIMIT HEATING...AND EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 30S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA TO THE LOW
40S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA. LOWS
WILL BE ON CHILLY SIDE...GENERALLY FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
20S...WITH A FEW UPPER TEENS IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO A WARM UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
A WARM FRONT PASSING ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. MAY SEE A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE ON SUNDAY AS GULF MOISTURE FLOWS NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. EXPECT SATURDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S...WITH SUNDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS SOME 10
DEGREES WARMER. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
APPALACHIAN CHAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE
WESTERN RIDGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL TRY AND PUSH SOUTH
OF THE AREA. WITH A STRONG AND BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTH...
EXPECTING LATER MODEL RUNS TO DELAY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL
SOMETIME TUESDAY. SINCE THE ECM/GFS HAS THIS FRONT ENTERING THE AREA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. ALSO HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS TUESDAY FOR A
POSSIBLE FRONTAL PASSAGE OR FOR THE FRONT STALLING IN THE REGION.
EITHER WAY AND/OR EITHER DAY...TEMPERATURES AND THICKNESSES ARE WARM
TO KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION FALLING AS RAIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVER NEW ENGLAND FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND REMAIN
IN THE AREA TROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. EVEN THOUGH THIS
WEDGE IS STRONG (1035MB)...MODELS REMAINING WARM AND CLOSE TO
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM EST THURSDAY...

DEPARTING SURFACE LOW LEAVING A LOT OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS
BEHIND BUT CONDITIONS HAVE GENERALLY IMPROVED INTO MVFR
CATEGORY... WHICH SHOULD PERSIST MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN RAPIDLY FROM THE WEST WILL USHER IN
STRONG NOTRHWEST WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WITH WIND SPEEDS
FROM THE WEST GUSTING 15KT TO 25KT... TOPPING 30KT AT TIMES.
CEILINGS WILL ALSO IMPROVE TO VFR FOR KROA/KLYH/KDAN...HOWEVER THE
TRANSITION TO VFR WILL BE MORE GRADUAL FOR KBCB...TAKING UNTIL
LATE EVENING. CIGS WILL BE SLOWER TO IMPROVE OVER THE FAR WEST
WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW MAY KEEP KBLF AND KLWB MVFR WITH PASSING SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...RESULTING IN
VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE REGION ON
MONDAY...BRINGING A RETURN OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WAS MALFUNCTIONING
AGAIN. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER BUT THE REPAIR MAY NOT BE UNTIL
MONDAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLYH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STAFF WHEN THE
CONTROL TOWER IS OPEN...OTHERWISE THE VISIBILITY WILL BE MISSING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/MBS
NEAR TERM...JH/PC
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...JH/PC
EQUIPMENT...AMS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 271641
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1141 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND RESULTING IN WARMER...AND DRIER WEATHER INTO
SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1130 AM EST THURSDAY...

WILL BE DROPPING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FAR SW COUNTIES ON
SCHEDULE AT NOON. WILL STILL SEE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BUT WITH SURFACE WAVE WELL EAST WINDS
WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE WEST WITH A DRYING COMPONENT. A FEW
HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS..OVER 3000 FEET... REPORTED ABOUT 3
INCHES FROM THIS EVENT IN ADDITION TO WHATEVER FELL YESTERDAY.
THE AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND QUITE
CHILLY FOR ANY BACKYARD FOOTBALL GAMES...MID-30S IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO MID-40S FAR EAST...WHICH IS 10-15F BELOW LATE NOVEMBER NORMALS.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
AS OF 230 AM EST THURSDAY

COLD HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN BEHIND THE PASSING CLIPPER
TYPE WAVE TONIGHT WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE LEADING TO ADDED UPSLOPE
-SHSN ESPCLY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SOME ADDED ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE
BUT THINKING WONT NEED MORE HEADLINES WITH AN INCH OR SO ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES AND FLURRIES OUT TO THE BLUE RIDGE EARLY THIS
EVENING. OTRW GRADUAL CLEARING OUTSIDE THE UPSLOPE AREAS AS
MOISTURE BECOMES SHALLOW AND MIXES OUT IN BETTER DOWNSLOPING OUT
EAST. HOWEVER DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE OFFSHORE WAVE
DEEPENING AND STEADY 85H COLD ADVECTION...TO MAKE WINDS QUITE
GUSTY AND POSSIBLY JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE HIGHER
RIDGES IN NW NC. OTRW QUITE COLD AGAIN WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE OF
MOS GUIDANCE GIVEN MIXING OFFSET OF COLD ADVECTION...EXCEPT IN
SPOTS OVER THE WEST WHERE SOME SNOW COVER WILL RESIDE AND LIKELY
HELP PUSH LOWS INTO THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EST THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...CAUSING
RESIDUAL UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN RIDGES TO COME TO
AN END BY LUNCHTIME. ALTHOUGH A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HAVE
SHIFTED OVER THE ATLANTIC BY SUNRISE...HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN DURING
THE AFTERNOON WILL LIMIT HEATING...AND EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 30S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA TO THE LOW
40S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA. LOWS
WILL BE ON CHILLY SIDE...GENERALLY FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
20S...WITH A FEW UPPER TEENS IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO A WARM UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
A WARM FRONT PASSING ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. MAY SEE A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE ON SUNDAY AS GULF MOISTURE FLOWS NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. EXPECT SATURDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S...WITH SUNDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS SOME 10
DEGREES WARMER. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
APPALACHIAN CHAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE
WESTERN RIDGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL TRY AND PUSH SOUTH
OF THE AREA. WITH A STRONG AND BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTH...
EXPECTING LATER MODEL RUNS TO DELAY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL
SOMETIME TUESDAY. SINCE THE ECM/GFS HAS THIS FRONT ENTERING THE AREA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. ALSO HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS TUESDAY FOR A
POSSIBLE FRONTAL PASSAGE OR FOR THE FRONT STALLING IN THE REGION.
EITHER WAY AND/OR EITHER DAY...TEMPERATURES AND THICKNESSES ARE WARM
TO KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION FALLING AS RAIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVER NEW ENGLAND FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND REMAIN
IN THE AREA TROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. EVEN THOUGH THIS
WEDGE IS STRONG (1035MB)...MODELS REMAINING WARM AND CLOSE TO
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 605 AM EST THURSDAY...

WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER NW NORTH CAROLINA WILL HEAD EAST PASSING TO
THE SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE BANDS OF -SN OVER THE MOUNTAINS MAKING FOR MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS INCLUDING AREAS OF LIFR IN DENSE FOG. MOSTLY -RA CAN
BE EXPECTED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE CIGS WILL BE MORE VFR TO
OCNL MVFR INTO MID MORNING.

ONCE THE LOW PASSES EAST LATE THIS MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA...WITH WIND SPEEDS FROM THE WEST
GUSTING 15KT TO 25KT... TOPPING 30KT AT TIMES. CEILINGS WILL ALSO
IMPROVE TO VFR FOR KROA/KLYH/KDAN...HOWEVER THE TRANSITION TO VFR
WILL BE MORE GRADUAL FOR KBCB...TAKING UNTIL LATE EVENING.
CIGS WILL BE SLOWER TO IMPROVE OVER THE FAR WEST WHERE UPSLOPE
FLOW MAY KEEP KBLF AND KLWB MVFR WITH PASSING SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...RESULTING IN
VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE REGION ON
MONDAY...BRINGING A RETURN OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WAS MALFUNCTIONING
AGAIN. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER BUT THE REPAIR MAY NOT BE UNTIL
MONDAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLYH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STAFF WHEN THE
CONTROL TOWER IS OPEN...OTHERWISE THE VISIBILITY WILL BE MISSING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ007-009-
     015.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR WVZ508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/MBS
NEAR TERM...JH/PC
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...JH/NF/PC
EQUIPMENT...AMS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 271641
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1141 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND RESULTING IN WARMER...AND DRIER WEATHER INTO
SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1130 AM EST THURSDAY...

WILL BE DROPPING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FAR SW COUNTIES ON
SCHEDULE AT NOON. WILL STILL SEE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BUT WITH SURFACE WAVE WELL EAST WINDS
WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE WEST WITH A DRYING COMPONENT. A FEW
HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS..OVER 3000 FEET... REPORTED ABOUT 3
INCHES FROM THIS EVENT IN ADDITION TO WHATEVER FELL YESTERDAY.
THE AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND QUITE
CHILLY FOR ANY BACKYARD FOOTBALL GAMES...MID-30S IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO MID-40S FAR EAST...WHICH IS 10-15F BELOW LATE NOVEMBER NORMALS.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
AS OF 230 AM EST THURSDAY

COLD HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN BEHIND THE PASSING CLIPPER
TYPE WAVE TONIGHT WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE LEADING TO ADDED UPSLOPE
-SHSN ESPCLY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SOME ADDED ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE
BUT THINKING WONT NEED MORE HEADLINES WITH AN INCH OR SO ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES AND FLURRIES OUT TO THE BLUE RIDGE EARLY THIS
EVENING. OTRW GRADUAL CLEARING OUTSIDE THE UPSLOPE AREAS AS
MOISTURE BECOMES SHALLOW AND MIXES OUT IN BETTER DOWNSLOPING OUT
EAST. HOWEVER DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE OFFSHORE WAVE
DEEPENING AND STEADY 85H COLD ADVECTION...TO MAKE WINDS QUITE
GUSTY AND POSSIBLY JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE HIGHER
RIDGES IN NW NC. OTRW QUITE COLD AGAIN WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE OF
MOS GUIDANCE GIVEN MIXING OFFSET OF COLD ADVECTION...EXCEPT IN
SPOTS OVER THE WEST WHERE SOME SNOW COVER WILL RESIDE AND LIKELY
HELP PUSH LOWS INTO THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EST THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...CAUSING
RESIDUAL UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN RIDGES TO COME TO
AN END BY LUNCHTIME. ALTHOUGH A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HAVE
SHIFTED OVER THE ATLANTIC BY SUNRISE...HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN DURING
THE AFTERNOON WILL LIMIT HEATING...AND EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 30S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA TO THE LOW
40S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA. LOWS
WILL BE ON CHILLY SIDE...GENERALLY FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
20S...WITH A FEW UPPER TEENS IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO A WARM UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
A WARM FRONT PASSING ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. MAY SEE A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE ON SUNDAY AS GULF MOISTURE FLOWS NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. EXPECT SATURDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S...WITH SUNDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS SOME 10
DEGREES WARMER. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
APPALACHIAN CHAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE
WESTERN RIDGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL TRY AND PUSH SOUTH
OF THE AREA. WITH A STRONG AND BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTH...
EXPECTING LATER MODEL RUNS TO DELAY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL
SOMETIME TUESDAY. SINCE THE ECM/GFS HAS THIS FRONT ENTERING THE AREA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. ALSO HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS TUESDAY FOR A
POSSIBLE FRONTAL PASSAGE OR FOR THE FRONT STALLING IN THE REGION.
EITHER WAY AND/OR EITHER DAY...TEMPERATURES AND THICKNESSES ARE WARM
TO KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION FALLING AS RAIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVER NEW ENGLAND FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND REMAIN
IN THE AREA TROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. EVEN THOUGH THIS
WEDGE IS STRONG (1035MB)...MODELS REMAINING WARM AND CLOSE TO
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 605 AM EST THURSDAY...

WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER NW NORTH CAROLINA WILL HEAD EAST PASSING TO
THE SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE BANDS OF -SN OVER THE MOUNTAINS MAKING FOR MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS INCLUDING AREAS OF LIFR IN DENSE FOG. MOSTLY -RA CAN
BE EXPECTED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE CIGS WILL BE MORE VFR TO
OCNL MVFR INTO MID MORNING.

ONCE THE LOW PASSES EAST LATE THIS MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA...WITH WIND SPEEDS FROM THE WEST
GUSTING 15KT TO 25KT... TOPPING 30KT AT TIMES. CEILINGS WILL ALSO
IMPROVE TO VFR FOR KROA/KLYH/KDAN...HOWEVER THE TRANSITION TO VFR
WILL BE MORE GRADUAL FOR KBCB...TAKING UNTIL LATE EVENING.
CIGS WILL BE SLOWER TO IMPROVE OVER THE FAR WEST WHERE UPSLOPE
FLOW MAY KEEP KBLF AND KLWB MVFR WITH PASSING SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...RESULTING IN
VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE REGION ON
MONDAY...BRINGING A RETURN OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WAS MALFUNCTIONING
AGAIN. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER BUT THE REPAIR MAY NOT BE UNTIL
MONDAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLYH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STAFF WHEN THE
CONTROL TOWER IS OPEN...OTHERWISE THE VISIBILITY WILL BE MISSING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ007-009-
     015.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR WVZ508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/MBS
NEAR TERM...JH/PC
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...JH/NF/PC
EQUIPMENT...AMS



000
FXUS61 KLWX 271551
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1051 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE TO CANCEL THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. ANY LEFTOVER PATCHY DENSE
FOG IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY WILL BURN OFF BY NOON.

AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH LATE THIS
MORNING AND A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SYSTEMS MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS
TO THE AREA TODAY...BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. FOR
THIS MORNING...THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN
MARYLAND AND THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT...CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THE COLD FRONT MAY TRIGGER A COUPLE RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT AND LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE ONE
EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT...WHERE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD. EVEN ACROSS
THESE AREAS PRECIIPTATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT SO LITTLE SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S
AND LOWER 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S NEAR
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT...BUT ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. A PRESSURE SURGE WILL CAUSE
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS AND IT WILL BE COLD DUE TO A NORTHWEST FLOW.
AN UPSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO
LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS MAY SPILL EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS ACROSS NORTHERN
MARYLAND...EXTREME NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND EASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA...BUT LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. FCST
MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S IN THE MTNS TO THE LOW 30S
NEAR THE CITIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL MAY HAVE A FEW UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ONGOING TO START FRIDAY
OTHERWISE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FOR DRY
CONDITIONS/SOME SUNSHINE BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVE IN 500 MB FLOW
WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. MUCH
OF THE CWA SHOULD BE DRY ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ALLEGHENY/POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES
START TO MODERATE A LITTLE FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OFFSHORE WILL MODERATE
TEMPERATURES MORE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIKELY PUSH NORTH FOR SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS BUT CHANCE
OF PRECIP APPEARS MINIMAL.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
COLDER AIR IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT KMRB AND KCHO WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS BY
THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY THEN MOVES OFFSHORE FOR THE
WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT WX IS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE WATERS TODAY LEADING TO
NW WINDS 10-15KTS. NRLY WINDS BEHIND THE LOW WILL INCREASE AND
SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS
THROUGH FRIDAY.

NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN FOR
SCA CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR LESS WIND
FRIDAY NIGHT. RETURN FLOW ON SATURDAY COULD THEN INCREASE INTO SCA
TERRITORY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ530>534-536-537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ535-
     538-542.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP/HAS
NEAR TERM...BJL/HAS
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...BPP
AVIATION...BJL/BPP/HAS
MARINE...BJL/BPP/HAS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 271551
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1051 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE TO CANCEL THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. ANY LEFTOVER PATCHY DENSE
FOG IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY WILL BURN OFF BY NOON.

AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH LATE THIS
MORNING AND A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SYSTEMS MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS
TO THE AREA TODAY...BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. FOR
THIS MORNING...THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN
MARYLAND AND THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT...CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THE COLD FRONT MAY TRIGGER A COUPLE RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT AND LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE ONE
EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT...WHERE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD. EVEN ACROSS
THESE AREAS PRECIIPTATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT SO LITTLE SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S
AND LOWER 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S NEAR
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT...BUT ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. A PRESSURE SURGE WILL CAUSE
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS AND IT WILL BE COLD DUE TO A NORTHWEST FLOW.
AN UPSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO
LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS MAY SPILL EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS ACROSS NORTHERN
MARYLAND...EXTREME NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND EASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA...BUT LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. FCST
MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S IN THE MTNS TO THE LOW 30S
NEAR THE CITIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL MAY HAVE A FEW UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ONGOING TO START FRIDAY
OTHERWISE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FOR DRY
CONDITIONS/SOME SUNSHINE BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVE IN 500 MB FLOW
WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. MUCH
OF THE CWA SHOULD BE DRY ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ALLEGHENY/POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES
START TO MODERATE A LITTLE FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OFFSHORE WILL MODERATE
TEMPERATURES MORE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIKELY PUSH NORTH FOR SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS BUT CHANCE
OF PRECIP APPEARS MINIMAL.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
COLDER AIR IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT KMRB AND KCHO WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS BY
THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY THEN MOVES OFFSHORE FOR THE
WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT WX IS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE WATERS TODAY LEADING TO
NW WINDS 10-15KTS. NRLY WINDS BEHIND THE LOW WILL INCREASE AND
SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS
THROUGH FRIDAY.

NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN FOR
SCA CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR LESS WIND
FRIDAY NIGHT. RETURN FLOW ON SATURDAY COULD THEN INCREASE INTO SCA
TERRITORY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ530>534-536-537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ535-
     538-542.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP/HAS
NEAR TERM...BJL/HAS
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...BPP
AVIATION...BJL/BPP/HAS
MARINE...BJL/BPP/HAS







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271535
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1035 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...THEN PUSHES OFFSHORE
THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE ANALYZED FROM CENTRAL NC NORTH INTO CENTRAL
AND ERN VA. ALOFT...STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS IN PLACE OVER
THE SE CONUS...PROVIDING STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (H7 TO H5 OF
7 TO 8 C/KM). WITH ALL OF THIS LIFT...HAVE BUMPED POPS TO 80% ACRS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VA FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS...BUFFERED BY HIGH
CHC TO LIKELY POPS OVER MOST OF THE REST OF THE CWA. NOT A LOT OF
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM SO QPF AMOUNTS WILL AVG ONLY 0.10" MOST
AREAS...LOCALLY TO AROUND .25" IN THE FAR SE. DEW PTS AND SFC WET
BULB TEMPS FROM AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS AND HIGH RES MODEL DATA SUGGEST
RAIN AS PTYPE (ALTHOUGH SOME SLEET OR GRAUPEL COULD BRIEFLY MIX IN
WITH INCREASE IN PRECIP INTENSITY). STILL...NO ACCUMULATION OF
ANYTHING OTHER THAN LIQUID IS EXPECTED AS TEMPS ARE GENLY IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

SOME PARTIAL SUN HAS BEEN OBSERVED ACRS THE ERN SHORE THIS MORNING
BUT SHOULD CLOUD OVER SHORTLY. ELSEWHERE IT HAS BEEN CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY...AND THIS SHOULD PERSIST INTO EARLY TO MID
AFTN...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING POSSIBLE LATE MAINLY OVER THE NORTH
AND WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE LITTLE FROM CURRENT VALUES AND ONLY
TOP OUT IN THE 40S ALL AREAS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRS BUILDS ESE FROM THE MID MS VALLEY TONITE THEN BECOMES
CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA FRI/FRI NIGHT. THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS SE
AND OFF THE SE COAST BY SAT. MAINTAINED DRY CONDITIONS THRU THE
PRD...WITH SOME INCRS IN MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS FRI NIGHT / SAT
(ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE CWA). THIS AS FLOW ALOFT
FLATTENS AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.

TEMPS REMAIN BELOW AVG TONIGHT / FRI FOR THOSE HOLIDAY SHOPPERS.
LOWS IN THE 20S-L30S. HIGHS FRI ONLY 40-45 F. LOWS FRI NITE M20S-
L30S. TEMPS MODERATE A BIT ON SAT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE
SSW. STILL A BIT BELOW AVG WITH HIGHS 50-55 F CENTRAL AND SOUTH
AND IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT-SUN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
THRU THE REGION. SLY FLOW AND INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL
RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS SUN...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S. THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUN
NIGHT...CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA MON. FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED TO BE
DRY OVER THE REGION...EXCEPT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS AND ERN VA PIEDMONT...CLOSEST TO BEST MOISTURE. TEMPS
MON WARM INTO THE MID 60S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
MON NIGHT...LOCATING OVER NEW ENGLAND TUES AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES OVER THE LOCAL AREA...SETTING UP AN IN-SITU CAD WEDGE OVER
THE REGION...WITH NELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. HAVE INTRODUCED LIGHT OVERRUNNING
PRECIP MON NIGHT AND TUES. TUES HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S NW TO
MID 50S SE. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WEDS AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. HIGHS WEDS IN THE MID-UPPER
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT ALL TAF SITES WITH LIGHT WINDS.
NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO/THROUGH THE REGION AFTER 12Z WITH SOME -RA
POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCE WILL BE AT KRIC BETWEEN 11-15Z. MFVR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH ANY PCPN TODAY...AND POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS AT KRIC IF RAIN MIXES WITH SNOW.

OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY THIS AFTN/EVE WITH VFR AND DRY WX
INDICATED TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING (5-7
FT NORTH AND 4-6 FT SOUTH)...BUT THEY SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. WILL MAINTAIN SCA FOR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS THRU 7 AM...AND THE NORTHERN WATERS THRU 10 AM. OTW...W-NW
WINDS 5-15 KT WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE BY LATE MORNING.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS THIS AFTN AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT WITH NWLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT
OVER THE BAY/SOUND AND 20-25 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
RESPOND...BUILDING TO 5-6 FT...HIGHEST 20 NM OUT. THEREAFTER...HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS LATE FRI THRU THE WEEKEND...
RESULTING IN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271535
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1035 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...THEN PUSHES OFFSHORE
THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE ANALYZED FROM CENTRAL NC NORTH INTO CENTRAL
AND ERN VA. ALOFT...STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS IN PLACE OVER
THE SE CONUS...PROVIDING STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (H7 TO H5 OF
7 TO 8 C/KM). WITH ALL OF THIS LIFT...HAVE BUMPED POPS TO 80% ACRS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VA FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS...BUFFERED BY HIGH
CHC TO LIKELY POPS OVER MOST OF THE REST OF THE CWA. NOT A LOT OF
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM SO QPF AMOUNTS WILL AVG ONLY 0.10" MOST
AREAS...LOCALLY TO AROUND .25" IN THE FAR SE. DEW PTS AND SFC WET
BULB TEMPS FROM AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS AND HIGH RES MODEL DATA SUGGEST
RAIN AS PTYPE (ALTHOUGH SOME SLEET OR GRAUPEL COULD BRIEFLY MIX IN
WITH INCREASE IN PRECIP INTENSITY). STILL...NO ACCUMULATION OF
ANYTHING OTHER THAN LIQUID IS EXPECTED AS TEMPS ARE GENLY IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

SOME PARTIAL SUN HAS BEEN OBSERVED ACRS THE ERN SHORE THIS MORNING
BUT SHOULD CLOUD OVER SHORTLY. ELSEWHERE IT HAS BEEN CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY...AND THIS SHOULD PERSIST INTO EARLY TO MID
AFTN...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING POSSIBLE LATE MAINLY OVER THE NORTH
AND WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE LITTLE FROM CURRENT VALUES AND ONLY
TOP OUT IN THE 40S ALL AREAS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRS BUILDS ESE FROM THE MID MS VALLEY TONITE THEN BECOMES
CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA FRI/FRI NIGHT. THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS SE
AND OFF THE SE COAST BY SAT. MAINTAINED DRY CONDITIONS THRU THE
PRD...WITH SOME INCRS IN MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS FRI NIGHT / SAT
(ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE CWA). THIS AS FLOW ALOFT
FLATTENS AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.

TEMPS REMAIN BELOW AVG TONIGHT / FRI FOR THOSE HOLIDAY SHOPPERS.
LOWS IN THE 20S-L30S. HIGHS FRI ONLY 40-45 F. LOWS FRI NITE M20S-
L30S. TEMPS MODERATE A BIT ON SAT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE
SSW. STILL A BIT BELOW AVG WITH HIGHS 50-55 F CENTRAL AND SOUTH
AND IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT-SUN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
THRU THE REGION. SLY FLOW AND INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL
RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS SUN...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S. THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUN
NIGHT...CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA MON. FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED TO BE
DRY OVER THE REGION...EXCEPT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS AND ERN VA PIEDMONT...CLOSEST TO BEST MOISTURE. TEMPS
MON WARM INTO THE MID 60S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
MON NIGHT...LOCATING OVER NEW ENGLAND TUES AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES OVER THE LOCAL AREA...SETTING UP AN IN-SITU CAD WEDGE OVER
THE REGION...WITH NELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. HAVE INTRODUCED LIGHT OVERRUNNING
PRECIP MON NIGHT AND TUES. TUES HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S NW TO
MID 50S SE. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WEDS AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. HIGHS WEDS IN THE MID-UPPER
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT ALL TAF SITES WITH LIGHT WINDS.
NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO/THROUGH THE REGION AFTER 12Z WITH SOME -RA
POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCE WILL BE AT KRIC BETWEEN 11-15Z. MFVR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH ANY PCPN TODAY...AND POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS AT KRIC IF RAIN MIXES WITH SNOW.

OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY THIS AFTN/EVE WITH VFR AND DRY WX
INDICATED TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING (5-7
FT NORTH AND 4-6 FT SOUTH)...BUT THEY SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. WILL MAINTAIN SCA FOR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS THRU 7 AM...AND THE NORTHERN WATERS THRU 10 AM. OTW...W-NW
WINDS 5-15 KT WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE BY LATE MORNING.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS THIS AFTN AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT WITH NWLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT
OVER THE BAY/SOUND AND 20-25 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
RESPOND...BUILDING TO 5-6 FT...HIGHEST 20 NM OUT. THEREAFTER...HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS LATE FRI THRU THE WEEKEND...
RESULTING IN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271535
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1035 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...THEN PUSHES OFFSHORE
THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE ANALYZED FROM CENTRAL NC NORTH INTO CENTRAL
AND ERN VA. ALOFT...STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS IN PLACE OVER
THE SE CONUS...PROVIDING STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (H7 TO H5 OF
7 TO 8 C/KM). WITH ALL OF THIS LIFT...HAVE BUMPED POPS TO 80% ACRS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VA FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS...BUFFERED BY HIGH
CHC TO LIKELY POPS OVER MOST OF THE REST OF THE CWA. NOT A LOT OF
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM SO QPF AMOUNTS WILL AVG ONLY 0.10" MOST
AREAS...LOCALLY TO AROUND .25" IN THE FAR SE. DEW PTS AND SFC WET
BULB TEMPS FROM AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS AND HIGH RES MODEL DATA SUGGEST
RAIN AS PTYPE (ALTHOUGH SOME SLEET OR GRAUPEL COULD BRIEFLY MIX IN
WITH INCREASE IN PRECIP INTENSITY). STILL...NO ACCUMULATION OF
ANYTHING OTHER THAN LIQUID IS EXPECTED AS TEMPS ARE GENLY IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

SOME PARTIAL SUN HAS BEEN OBSERVED ACRS THE ERN SHORE THIS MORNING
BUT SHOULD CLOUD OVER SHORTLY. ELSEWHERE IT HAS BEEN CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY...AND THIS SHOULD PERSIST INTO EARLY TO MID
AFTN...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING POSSIBLE LATE MAINLY OVER THE NORTH
AND WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE LITTLE FROM CURRENT VALUES AND ONLY
TOP OUT IN THE 40S ALL AREAS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRS BUILDS ESE FROM THE MID MS VALLEY TONITE THEN BECOMES
CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA FRI/FRI NIGHT. THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS SE
AND OFF THE SE COAST BY SAT. MAINTAINED DRY CONDITIONS THRU THE
PRD...WITH SOME INCRS IN MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS FRI NIGHT / SAT
(ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE CWA). THIS AS FLOW ALOFT
FLATTENS AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.

TEMPS REMAIN BELOW AVG TONIGHT / FRI FOR THOSE HOLIDAY SHOPPERS.
LOWS IN THE 20S-L30S. HIGHS FRI ONLY 40-45 F. LOWS FRI NITE M20S-
L30S. TEMPS MODERATE A BIT ON SAT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE
SSW. STILL A BIT BELOW AVG WITH HIGHS 50-55 F CENTRAL AND SOUTH
AND IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT-SUN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
THRU THE REGION. SLY FLOW AND INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL
RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS SUN...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S. THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUN
NIGHT...CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA MON. FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED TO BE
DRY OVER THE REGION...EXCEPT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS AND ERN VA PIEDMONT...CLOSEST TO BEST MOISTURE. TEMPS
MON WARM INTO THE MID 60S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
MON NIGHT...LOCATING OVER NEW ENGLAND TUES AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES OVER THE LOCAL AREA...SETTING UP AN IN-SITU CAD WEDGE OVER
THE REGION...WITH NELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. HAVE INTRODUCED LIGHT OVERRUNNING
PRECIP MON NIGHT AND TUES. TUES HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S NW TO
MID 50S SE. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WEDS AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. HIGHS WEDS IN THE MID-UPPER
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT ALL TAF SITES WITH LIGHT WINDS.
NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO/THROUGH THE REGION AFTER 12Z WITH SOME -RA
POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCE WILL BE AT KRIC BETWEEN 11-15Z. MFVR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH ANY PCPN TODAY...AND POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS AT KRIC IF RAIN MIXES WITH SNOW.

OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY THIS AFTN/EVE WITH VFR AND DRY WX
INDICATED TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING (5-7
FT NORTH AND 4-6 FT SOUTH)...BUT THEY SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. WILL MAINTAIN SCA FOR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS THRU 7 AM...AND THE NORTHERN WATERS THRU 10 AM. OTW...W-NW
WINDS 5-15 KT WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE BY LATE MORNING.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS THIS AFTN AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT WITH NWLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT
OVER THE BAY/SOUND AND 20-25 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
RESPOND...BUILDING TO 5-6 FT...HIGHEST 20 NM OUT. THEREAFTER...HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS LATE FRI THRU THE WEEKEND...
RESULTING IN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271535
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1035 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...THEN PUSHES OFFSHORE
THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE ANALYZED FROM CENTRAL NC NORTH INTO CENTRAL
AND ERN VA. ALOFT...STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS IN PLACE OVER
THE SE CONUS...PROVIDING STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (H7 TO H5 OF
7 TO 8 C/KM). WITH ALL OF THIS LIFT...HAVE BUMPED POPS TO 80% ACRS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VA FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS...BUFFERED BY HIGH
CHC TO LIKELY POPS OVER MOST OF THE REST OF THE CWA. NOT A LOT OF
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM SO QPF AMOUNTS WILL AVG ONLY 0.10" MOST
AREAS...LOCALLY TO AROUND .25" IN THE FAR SE. DEW PTS AND SFC WET
BULB TEMPS FROM AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS AND HIGH RES MODEL DATA SUGGEST
RAIN AS PTYPE (ALTHOUGH SOME SLEET OR GRAUPEL COULD BRIEFLY MIX IN
WITH INCREASE IN PRECIP INTENSITY). STILL...NO ACCUMULATION OF
ANYTHING OTHER THAN LIQUID IS EXPECTED AS TEMPS ARE GENLY IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

SOME PARTIAL SUN HAS BEEN OBSERVED ACRS THE ERN SHORE THIS MORNING
BUT SHOULD CLOUD OVER SHORTLY. ELSEWHERE IT HAS BEEN CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY...AND THIS SHOULD PERSIST INTO EARLY TO MID
AFTN...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING POSSIBLE LATE MAINLY OVER THE NORTH
AND WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE LITTLE FROM CURRENT VALUES AND ONLY
TOP OUT IN THE 40S ALL AREAS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRS BUILDS ESE FROM THE MID MS VALLEY TONITE THEN BECOMES
CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA FRI/FRI NIGHT. THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS SE
AND OFF THE SE COAST BY SAT. MAINTAINED DRY CONDITIONS THRU THE
PRD...WITH SOME INCRS IN MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS FRI NIGHT / SAT
(ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE CWA). THIS AS FLOW ALOFT
FLATTENS AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.

TEMPS REMAIN BELOW AVG TONIGHT / FRI FOR THOSE HOLIDAY SHOPPERS.
LOWS IN THE 20S-L30S. HIGHS FRI ONLY 40-45 F. LOWS FRI NITE M20S-
L30S. TEMPS MODERATE A BIT ON SAT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE
SSW. STILL A BIT BELOW AVG WITH HIGHS 50-55 F CENTRAL AND SOUTH
AND IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT-SUN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
THRU THE REGION. SLY FLOW AND INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL
RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS SUN...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S. THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUN
NIGHT...CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA MON. FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED TO BE
DRY OVER THE REGION...EXCEPT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS AND ERN VA PIEDMONT...CLOSEST TO BEST MOISTURE. TEMPS
MON WARM INTO THE MID 60S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
MON NIGHT...LOCATING OVER NEW ENGLAND TUES AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES OVER THE LOCAL AREA...SETTING UP AN IN-SITU CAD WEDGE OVER
THE REGION...WITH NELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. HAVE INTRODUCED LIGHT OVERRUNNING
PRECIP MON NIGHT AND TUES. TUES HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S NW TO
MID 50S SE. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WEDS AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. HIGHS WEDS IN THE MID-UPPER
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT ALL TAF SITES WITH LIGHT WINDS.
NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO/THROUGH THE REGION AFTER 12Z WITH SOME -RA
POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCE WILL BE AT KRIC BETWEEN 11-15Z. MFVR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH ANY PCPN TODAY...AND POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS AT KRIC IF RAIN MIXES WITH SNOW.

OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY THIS AFTN/EVE WITH VFR AND DRY WX
INDICATED TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING (5-7
FT NORTH AND 4-6 FT SOUTH)...BUT THEY SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. WILL MAINTAIN SCA FOR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS THRU 7 AM...AND THE NORTHERN WATERS THRU 10 AM. OTW...W-NW
WINDS 5-15 KT WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE BY LATE MORNING.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS THIS AFTN AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT WITH NWLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT
OVER THE BAY/SOUND AND 20-25 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
RESPOND...BUILDING TO 5-6 FT...HIGHEST 20 NM OUT. THEREAFTER...HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS LATE FRI THRU THE WEEKEND...
RESULTING IN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM






000
FXUS61 KLWX 271501
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1001 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FOG IS BEGINNING TO LIFT...BUT AREAS OF DENSE FOG CONTINUE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.
THEREFORE...THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 11 AM.

AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH THIS MORNING
AND A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SYSTEMS MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO
THE AREA TODAY...BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. FOR THIS
MORNING...THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN
MARYLAND AND THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT...CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THE COLD FRONT MAY TRIGGER A COUPLE
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT AND LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE
ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT...WHERE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD. EVEN
ACROSS THESE AREAS PRECIIPTATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT SO LITTLE
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
40S NEAR WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT...BUT ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. A PRESSURE SURGE WILL CAUSE
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS AND IT WILL BE COLD DUE TO A NORTHWEST FLOW.
AN UPSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO
LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS MAY SPILL EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS ACROSS NORTHERN
MARYLAND...EXTREME NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND EASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA...BUT LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. FCST
MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S IN THE MTNS TO THE LOW 30S
NEAR THE CITIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL MAY HAVE A FEW UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ONGOING TO START FRIDAY
OTHERWISE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FOR DRY
CONDITIONS/SOME SUNSHINE BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVE IN 500 MB FLOW
WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. MUCH
OF THE CWA SHOULD BE DRY ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ALLEGHENY/POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES
START TO MODERATE A LITTLE FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OFFSHORE WILL MODERATE
TEMPERATURES MORE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIKELY PUSH NORTH FOR SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS BUT CHANCE
OF PRECIP APPEARS MINIMAL.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
COLDER AIR IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT KMRB AND KCHO WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS BY
THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY THEN MOVES OFFSHORE FOR THE
WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT WX IS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE WATERS TODAY LEADING TO
NW WINDS 10-15KTS. NRLY WINDS BEHIND THE LOW WILL INCREASE AND
SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS
THROUGH FRIDAY.

NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN FOR
SCA CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR LESS WIND
FRIDAY NIGHT. RETURN FLOW ON SATURDAY COULD THEN INCREASE INTO SCA
TERRITORY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ502.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ025>031-
     504.
WV...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ050-055-
     502-504-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ530>534-536-537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ535-
     538-542.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP/HAS
NEAR TERM...BJL/HAS
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...BPP
AVIATION...BJL/BPP/HAS
MARINE...BJL/BPP/HAS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 271501
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1001 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FOG IS BEGINNING TO LIFT...BUT AREAS OF DENSE FOG CONTINUE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.
THEREFORE...THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 11 AM.

AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH THIS MORNING
AND A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SYSTEMS MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO
THE AREA TODAY...BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. FOR THIS
MORNING...THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN
MARYLAND AND THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT...CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THE COLD FRONT MAY TRIGGER A COUPLE
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT AND LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE
ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT...WHERE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD. EVEN
ACROSS THESE AREAS PRECIIPTATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT SO LITTLE
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
40S NEAR WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT...BUT ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. A PRESSURE SURGE WILL CAUSE
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS AND IT WILL BE COLD DUE TO A NORTHWEST FLOW.
AN UPSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO
LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS MAY SPILL EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS ACROSS NORTHERN
MARYLAND...EXTREME NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND EASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA...BUT LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. FCST
MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S IN THE MTNS TO THE LOW 30S
NEAR THE CITIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL MAY HAVE A FEW UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ONGOING TO START FRIDAY
OTHERWISE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FOR DRY
CONDITIONS/SOME SUNSHINE BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVE IN 500 MB FLOW
WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. MUCH
OF THE CWA SHOULD BE DRY ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ALLEGHENY/POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES
START TO MODERATE A LITTLE FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OFFSHORE WILL MODERATE
TEMPERATURES MORE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIKELY PUSH NORTH FOR SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS BUT CHANCE
OF PRECIP APPEARS MINIMAL.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
COLDER AIR IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT KMRB AND KCHO WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS BY
THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY THEN MOVES OFFSHORE FOR THE
WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT WX IS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE WATERS TODAY LEADING TO
NW WINDS 10-15KTS. NRLY WINDS BEHIND THE LOW WILL INCREASE AND
SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS
THROUGH FRIDAY.

NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN FOR
SCA CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR LESS WIND
FRIDAY NIGHT. RETURN FLOW ON SATURDAY COULD THEN INCREASE INTO SCA
TERRITORY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ502.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ025>031-
     504.
WV...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ050-055-
     502-504-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ530>534-536-537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ535-
     538-542.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP/HAS
NEAR TERM...BJL/HAS
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...BPP
AVIATION...BJL/BPP/HAS
MARINE...BJL/BPP/HAS







000
FXUS61 KRNK 271136
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
636 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION THIS MORNING AND OFFSHORE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BRINGING COLDER AIR AND
GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE
THIS WEEKEND RESULTING IN WARMER...AND DRIER WEATHER INTO SUNDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EST THURSDAY...

STRONG SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE 5H TROUGH WILL FINALLY SERVE
AS THE CABOOSE TO THE ONGOING WINTRY WEATHER TODAY AS IT PASSES ACROSS
THE NC RIDGES THIS MORNING AND TO THE SE OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS FEATURE WILL AGAIN TEND TO ENHANCE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE
CWA THIS MORNING...WITH THE MAIN LIFT BACK OVER THE WEST/SW PORTIONS IN
THE COLDER AIR ALOFT EARLY ON BEFORE BETTER SUPPORT SHIFTS OFF TO THE
SE WITH A WEAK INDUCED SURFACE WAVE. MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT MOST OF
THE REGION IN A BROAD SWATH OF LIGHT PRECIP THIS MORNING BEFORE
TAPERING TO MAINLY THE EAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING.
DEGREE OF ORGANIZATION LOOKS IFFY BUT SUSPECT WILL SEE A FEW MORE
BANDS OF SNOW WEST THIS MORNING WITH ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE UPSLOPISH BEHIND THE PASSING VORT
AXIS. THEREFORE WILL BE LEAVING THE GOING ADVISORY IN PLACE WITH
ANOTHER INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE MAINLY SW PORTIONS...AND ONLY SPOTTY
ADDED TOTALS HEADING OUT TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE MAY INIT AS
RAIN BEFORE DAYBREAK. SHOULD ALSO SEE PATCHY/BANDS OF RAIN EAST
BUT PERHAPS MIXED WITH SNOW AT TIMES WHERE PRECIP COMES DOWN A BIT
HARDER. PRECIP MAY ALSO END AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW PIEDMONT
LATE MORNING AS THE COLD POCKET ALOFT PASSES. HOWEVER QPF LOOKING
RATHER LIGHT WITH A TENTH OR LESS MOST SPOTS TODAY EXCEPT UP TO A
QUARTER INCH OUT EAST AND ACROSS THE SW RIDGES. EXPECT A BREAK IN
POPS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME SUN POSSIBLE AS DOWNSLOPE KICKS IN
AND BEFORE BETTER UPSLOPE DEVELOPS WEST THIS EVENING. KEPT HIGH
TEMPS CLOSER TO THE COLDER MAV MOS ALTHOUGH MAY BE EVEN COLDER SE
PENDING DEGREE OF CLOUDS/PRECIP COVERAGE THIS MORNING.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN BEHIND THE PASSING CLIPPER TYPE
WAVE TONIGHT WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE LEADING TO ADDED UPSLOPE -SHSN
ESPCLY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SOME ADDED ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE BUT
THINKING WONT NEED MORE HEADLINES WITH AN INCH OR SO ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES AND FLURRIES OUT TO THE BLUE RIDGE EARLY THIS
EVENING. OTRW GRADUAL CLEARING OUTSIDE THE UPSLOPE AREAS AS
MOISTURE BECOMES SHALLOW AND MIXES OUT IN BETTER DOWNSLOPING OUT
EAST. HOWEVER DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE OFFSHORE WAVE
DEEPENING AND STEADY 85H COLD ADVECTION...TO MAKE WINDS QUITE
GUSTY AND POSSIBLY JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE HIGHER
RIDGES IN NW NC. OTRW QUITE COLD AGAIN WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE OF
MOS GUIDANCE GIVEN MIXING OFFSET OF COLD ADVECTION...EXCEPT IN
SPOTS OVER THE WEST WHERE SOME SNOW COVER WILL RESIDE AND LIKELY
HELP PUSH LOWS INTO THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EST THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...CAUSING
RESIDUAL UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN RIDGES TO COME TO
AN END BY LUNCHTIME. ALTHOUGH A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HAVE
SHIFTED OVER THE ATLANTIC BY SUNRISE...HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN DURING
THE AFTERNOON WILL LIMIT HEATING...AND EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 30S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA TO THE LOW
40S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA. LOWS
WILL BE ON CHILLY SIDE...GENERALLY FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
20S...WITH A FEW UPPER TEENS IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO A WARM UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
A WARM FRONT PASSING ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. MAY SEE A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE ON SUNDAY AS GULF MOISTURE FLOWS NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. EXPECT SATURDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S...WITH SUNDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS SOME 10
DEGREES WARMER. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
APPALACHIAN CHAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE
WESTERN RIDGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL TRY AND PUSH SOUTH
OF THE AREA. WITH A STRONG AND BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTH...
EXPECTING LATER MODEL RUNS TO DELAY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL
SOMETIME TUESDAY. SINCE THE ECM/GFS HAS THIS FRONT ENTERING THE AREA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. ALSO HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS TUESDAY FOR A
POSSIBLE FRONTAL PASSAGE OR FOR THE FRONT STALLING IN THE REGION.
EITHER WAY AND/OR EITHER DAY...TEMPERATURES AND THICKNESSES ARE WARM
TO KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION FALLING AS RAIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVER NEW ENGLAND FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND REMAIN
IN THE AREA TROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. EVEN THOUGH THIS
WEDGE IS STRONG (1035MB)...MODELS REMAINING WARM AND CLOSE TO
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 605 AM EST THURSDAY...

WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER NW NORTH CAROLINA WILL HEAD EAST PASSING TO
THE SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE BANDS OF -SN OVER THE MOUNTAINS MAKING FOR MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS INCLUDING AREAS OF LIFR IN DENSE FOG. MOSTLY -RA CAN
BE EXPECTED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE CIGS WILL BE MORE VFR TO
OCNL MVFR INTO MID MORNING.

ONCE THE LOW PASSES EAST LATE THIS MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA...WITH WIND SPEEDS FROM THE WEST
GUSTING 15KT TO 25KT... TOPPING 30KT AT TIMES. CEILINGS WILL ALSO
IMPROVE TO VFR FOR KROA/KLYH/KDAN...HOWEVER THE TRANSITION TO VFR
WILL BE MORE GRADUAL FOR KBCB...TAKING UNTIL LATE EVENING.
CIGS WILL BE SLOWER TO IMPROVE OVER THE FAR WEST WHERE UPSLOPE
FLOW MAY KEEP KBLF AND KLWB MVFR WITH PASSING SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...RESULTING IN
VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE REGION ON
MONDAY...BRINGING A RETURN OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS RANGED FROM ABOUT 0.50 TO 1.25
INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT WITH A FEW GAGES PICKING UP IN EXCESS
OF 1.50 INCHES MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NEW RIVER AND UPPER
ROANOKE AND DAN RIVER BASINS. THE LESSER AMOUNTS WERE GENERALLY
OBSERVED OVER THE WESTERN BASINS INCLUDING THE GREENBRIER AND
UPPER JAMES. RADAR PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES EXTREMELY CONTAMINATED
BY BRIGHT BAND EFFECTS. RUNOFF CAUSING SMALLER STREAMS TO SHOW
SOME NICE RISES BUT ALL WELL WITHIN BANKS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WAS MALFUNCTIONING
AGAIN. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER BUT THE REPAIR MAY NOT BE UNTIL
MONDAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLYH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STAFF WHEN THE
CONTROL TOWER IS OPEN...OTHERWISE THE VISIBILITY WILL BE MISSING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ007-009-
     015.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR WVZ508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/MBS
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...JH/NF/PC
HYDROLOGY...PC
EQUIPMENT...AMS



000
FXUS61 KLWX 271012
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
512 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...EXPANDED DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO INCLUDE FREDERICK VA AND
HAMPSHIRE WV.

COASTAL LOW PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT RAIN AND SNOW TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OFF THE MAINE COAST THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS RIDGED INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.

SUBSIDENCE HAS LED TO AREAS OF CLEARING EARLY THIS MORNING. PATCHY
FOG HAS DEVELOPED AS CALM WINDS LEAD TO RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS
THE WET GROUND. DENSE FOG HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN VALLEY LOCATIONS
ESPECIALLY IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT THIS MORNING FOR THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. CLOUDS FROM THE
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
FROM THE TN VALLEY. THIS SHOULD HALT FOG DEVELOPMENT FURTHER EAST
BUT DUE TO THE SNOWPACK WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...DENSE FOG WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SHEN VALLEY. TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER 20S AND
LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION. ICY CONDITIONS FROM REFREEZE ARE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO THE TN VALLEY THIS MORNING.
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL CROSS SW VA THIS
MORNING AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/APPALACHIAN REGION OVERNIGHT.
THEY WILL PIVOT NORTHWARD THIS MORNING AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS
APPROACHES THE REGION. THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL KEEP MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE LWX REGION. LIGHT SHOWERS MAY SKIRT THE
CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT TODAY. MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED IN THIS AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE PRE DAWN HRS WHERE
TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND FREEZING WILL LEAD TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS
MORNING. TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S TO 40S TODAY.

AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE. UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT. UP TO
THREE INCHES IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN
SLOPES. FURTHER EAST...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A STRATO-CU
DECK AND SPRINKLES/FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES OVERHEAD TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS ON THE
WESTERN SLOPES WILL TAPER OFF BY FRIDAY MORNING. FCST MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S IN THE MTNS TO THE LOW 30S NEAR THE CITIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL MAY HAVE A FEW UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ONGOING TO START FRIDAY
OTHERWISE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FOR DRY
CONDITIONS/SOME SUNSHINE BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVE IN 500 MB FLOW
WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. MUCH
OF THE CWA SHOULD BE DRY ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ALLEGHENY/POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES
START TO MODERATE A LITTLE FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OFFSHORE WILL MODERATE
TEMPERATURES MORE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIKELY PUSH NORTH FOR SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS BUT CHANCE
OF PRECIP APPEARS MINIMAL.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
COLDER AIR IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT HAS LED TO SUDDEN DROPS
IN VSBYS AT CHO THIS MORNING. THIS IS POSSIBLE AT MRB-IAD THROUGH
THE DAWN HOURS. LIGHT SW WINDS WILL BECOME NW 5-10 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AT THE TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY THEN MOVES OFFSHORE FOR THE
WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT WX IS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NRLY WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED ON THE WATERS OVERNIGHT AS THE COASTAL LOW
MOVES FURTHER AWAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE WATERS
TODAY LEADING TO NW WINDS 10-15KTS TODAY. NRLY WINDS BEHIND THE LOW
WILL INCREASE AND SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS BECOMING ALL THE WATERS FRIDAY.

NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN FOR
SCA CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR LESS WIND
FRIDAY NIGHT. RETURN FLOW ON SATURDAY COULD THEN INCREASE INTO SCA
TERRITORY.

&&

.CLIMATE...

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ025>030-
     504.
WV...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ050-055-
     502-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ530>534-536-537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ535-
     538-542.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP/HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...BPP
AVIATION...BPP/HAS
MARINE...BPP/HAS
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KLWX 271012
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
512 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...EXPANDED DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO INCLUDE FREDERICK VA AND
HAMPSHIRE WV.

COASTAL LOW PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT RAIN AND SNOW TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OFF THE MAINE COAST THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS RIDGED INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.

SUBSIDENCE HAS LED TO AREAS OF CLEARING EARLY THIS MORNING. PATCHY
FOG HAS DEVELOPED AS CALM WINDS LEAD TO RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS
THE WET GROUND. DENSE FOG HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN VALLEY LOCATIONS
ESPECIALLY IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT THIS MORNING FOR THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. CLOUDS FROM THE
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
FROM THE TN VALLEY. THIS SHOULD HALT FOG DEVELOPMENT FURTHER EAST
BUT DUE TO THE SNOWPACK WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...DENSE FOG WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SHEN VALLEY. TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER 20S AND
LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION. ICY CONDITIONS FROM REFREEZE ARE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO THE TN VALLEY THIS MORNING.
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL CROSS SW VA THIS
MORNING AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/APPALACHIAN REGION OVERNIGHT.
THEY WILL PIVOT NORTHWARD THIS MORNING AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS
APPROACHES THE REGION. THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL KEEP MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE LWX REGION. LIGHT SHOWERS MAY SKIRT THE
CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT TODAY. MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED IN THIS AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE PRE DAWN HRS WHERE
TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND FREEZING WILL LEAD TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS
MORNING. TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S TO 40S TODAY.

AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE. UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT. UP TO
THREE INCHES IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN
SLOPES. FURTHER EAST...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A STRATO-CU
DECK AND SPRINKLES/FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES OVERHEAD TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS ON THE
WESTERN SLOPES WILL TAPER OFF BY FRIDAY MORNING. FCST MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S IN THE MTNS TO THE LOW 30S NEAR THE CITIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL MAY HAVE A FEW UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ONGOING TO START FRIDAY
OTHERWISE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FOR DRY
CONDITIONS/SOME SUNSHINE BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVE IN 500 MB FLOW
WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. MUCH
OF THE CWA SHOULD BE DRY ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ALLEGHENY/POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES
START TO MODERATE A LITTLE FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OFFSHORE WILL MODERATE
TEMPERATURES MORE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIKELY PUSH NORTH FOR SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS BUT CHANCE
OF PRECIP APPEARS MINIMAL.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
COLDER AIR IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT HAS LED TO SUDDEN DROPS
IN VSBYS AT CHO THIS MORNING. THIS IS POSSIBLE AT MRB-IAD THROUGH
THE DAWN HOURS. LIGHT SW WINDS WILL BECOME NW 5-10 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AT THE TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY THEN MOVES OFFSHORE FOR THE
WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT WX IS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NRLY WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED ON THE WATERS OVERNIGHT AS THE COASTAL LOW
MOVES FURTHER AWAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE WATERS
TODAY LEADING TO NW WINDS 10-15KTS TODAY. NRLY WINDS BEHIND THE LOW
WILL INCREASE AND SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS BECOMING ALL THE WATERS FRIDAY.

NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN FOR
SCA CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR LESS WIND
FRIDAY NIGHT. RETURN FLOW ON SATURDAY COULD THEN INCREASE INTO SCA
TERRITORY.

&&

.CLIMATE...

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ025>030-
     504.
WV...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ050-055-
     502-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ530>534-536-537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ535-
     538-542.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP/HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...BPP
AVIATION...BPP/HAS
MARINE...BPP/HAS
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KLWX 271012
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
512 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...EXPANDED DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO INCLUDE FREDERICK VA AND
HAMPSHIRE WV.

COASTAL LOW PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT RAIN AND SNOW TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OFF THE MAINE COAST THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS RIDGED INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.

SUBSIDENCE HAS LED TO AREAS OF CLEARING EARLY THIS MORNING. PATCHY
FOG HAS DEVELOPED AS CALM WINDS LEAD TO RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS
THE WET GROUND. DENSE FOG HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN VALLEY LOCATIONS
ESPECIALLY IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT THIS MORNING FOR THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. CLOUDS FROM THE
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
FROM THE TN VALLEY. THIS SHOULD HALT FOG DEVELOPMENT FURTHER EAST
BUT DUE TO THE SNOWPACK WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...DENSE FOG WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SHEN VALLEY. TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER 20S AND
LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION. ICY CONDITIONS FROM REFREEZE ARE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO THE TN VALLEY THIS MORNING.
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL CROSS SW VA THIS
MORNING AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/APPALACHIAN REGION OVERNIGHT.
THEY WILL PIVOT NORTHWARD THIS MORNING AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS
APPROACHES THE REGION. THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL KEEP MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE LWX REGION. LIGHT SHOWERS MAY SKIRT THE
CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT TODAY. MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED IN THIS AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE PRE DAWN HRS WHERE
TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND FREEZING WILL LEAD TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS
MORNING. TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S TO 40S TODAY.

AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE. UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT. UP TO
THREE INCHES IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN
SLOPES. FURTHER EAST...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A STRATO-CU
DECK AND SPRINKLES/FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES OVERHEAD TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS ON THE
WESTERN SLOPES WILL TAPER OFF BY FRIDAY MORNING. FCST MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S IN THE MTNS TO THE LOW 30S NEAR THE CITIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL MAY HAVE A FEW UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ONGOING TO START FRIDAY
OTHERWISE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FOR DRY
CONDITIONS/SOME SUNSHINE BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVE IN 500 MB FLOW
WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. MUCH
OF THE CWA SHOULD BE DRY ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ALLEGHENY/POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES
START TO MODERATE A LITTLE FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OFFSHORE WILL MODERATE
TEMPERATURES MORE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIKELY PUSH NORTH FOR SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS BUT CHANCE
OF PRECIP APPEARS MINIMAL.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
COLDER AIR IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT HAS LED TO SUDDEN DROPS
IN VSBYS AT CHO THIS MORNING. THIS IS POSSIBLE AT MRB-IAD THROUGH
THE DAWN HOURS. LIGHT SW WINDS WILL BECOME NW 5-10 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AT THE TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY THEN MOVES OFFSHORE FOR THE
WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT WX IS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NRLY WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED ON THE WATERS OVERNIGHT AS THE COASTAL LOW
MOVES FURTHER AWAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE WATERS
TODAY LEADING TO NW WINDS 10-15KTS TODAY. NRLY WINDS BEHIND THE LOW
WILL INCREASE AND SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS BECOMING ALL THE WATERS FRIDAY.

NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN FOR
SCA CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR LESS WIND
FRIDAY NIGHT. RETURN FLOW ON SATURDAY COULD THEN INCREASE INTO SCA
TERRITORY.

&&

.CLIMATE...

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ025>030-
     504.
WV...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ050-055-
     502-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ530>534-536-537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ535-
     538-542.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP/HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...BPP
AVIATION...BPP/HAS
MARINE...BPP/HAS
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KLWX 271012
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
512 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...EXPANDED DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO INCLUDE FREDERICK VA AND
HAMPSHIRE WV.

COASTAL LOW PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT RAIN AND SNOW TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OFF THE MAINE COAST THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS RIDGED INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.

SUBSIDENCE HAS LED TO AREAS OF CLEARING EARLY THIS MORNING. PATCHY
FOG HAS DEVELOPED AS CALM WINDS LEAD TO RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS
THE WET GROUND. DENSE FOG HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN VALLEY LOCATIONS
ESPECIALLY IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT THIS MORNING FOR THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. CLOUDS FROM THE
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
FROM THE TN VALLEY. THIS SHOULD HALT FOG DEVELOPMENT FURTHER EAST
BUT DUE TO THE SNOWPACK WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...DENSE FOG WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SHEN VALLEY. TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER 20S AND
LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION. ICY CONDITIONS FROM REFREEZE ARE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO THE TN VALLEY THIS MORNING.
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL CROSS SW VA THIS
MORNING AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/APPALACHIAN REGION OVERNIGHT.
THEY WILL PIVOT NORTHWARD THIS MORNING AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS
APPROACHES THE REGION. THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL KEEP MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE LWX REGION. LIGHT SHOWERS MAY SKIRT THE
CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT TODAY. MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED IN THIS AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE PRE DAWN HRS WHERE
TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND FREEZING WILL LEAD TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS
MORNING. TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S TO 40S TODAY.

AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE. UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT. UP TO
THREE INCHES IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN
SLOPES. FURTHER EAST...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A STRATO-CU
DECK AND SPRINKLES/FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES OVERHEAD TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS ON THE
WESTERN SLOPES WILL TAPER OFF BY FRIDAY MORNING. FCST MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S IN THE MTNS TO THE LOW 30S NEAR THE CITIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL MAY HAVE A FEW UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ONGOING TO START FRIDAY
OTHERWISE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FOR DRY
CONDITIONS/SOME SUNSHINE BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVE IN 500 MB FLOW
WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. MUCH
OF THE CWA SHOULD BE DRY ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ALLEGHENY/POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES
START TO MODERATE A LITTLE FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OFFSHORE WILL MODERATE
TEMPERATURES MORE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIKELY PUSH NORTH FOR SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS BUT CHANCE
OF PRECIP APPEARS MINIMAL.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
COLDER AIR IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT HAS LED TO SUDDEN DROPS
IN VSBYS AT CHO THIS MORNING. THIS IS POSSIBLE AT MRB-IAD THROUGH
THE DAWN HOURS. LIGHT SW WINDS WILL BECOME NW 5-10 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AT THE TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY THEN MOVES OFFSHORE FOR THE
WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT WX IS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NRLY WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED ON THE WATERS OVERNIGHT AS THE COASTAL LOW
MOVES FURTHER AWAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE WATERS
TODAY LEADING TO NW WINDS 10-15KTS TODAY. NRLY WINDS BEHIND THE LOW
WILL INCREASE AND SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS BECOMING ALL THE WATERS FRIDAY.

NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN FOR
SCA CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR LESS WIND
FRIDAY NIGHT. RETURN FLOW ON SATURDAY COULD THEN INCREASE INTO SCA
TERRITORY.

&&

.CLIMATE...

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ025>030-
     504.
WV...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ050-055-
     502-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ530>534-536-537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ535-
     538-542.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP/HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...BPP
AVIATION...BPP/HAS
MARINE...BPP/HAS
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KLWX 271012
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
512 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...EXPANDED DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO INCLUDE FREDERICK VA AND
HAMPSHIRE WV.

COASTAL LOW PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT RAIN AND SNOW TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OFF THE MAINE COAST THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS RIDGED INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.

SUBSIDENCE HAS LED TO AREAS OF CLEARING EARLY THIS MORNING. PATCHY
FOG HAS DEVELOPED AS CALM WINDS LEAD TO RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS
THE WET GROUND. DENSE FOG HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN VALLEY LOCATIONS
ESPECIALLY IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT THIS MORNING FOR THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. CLOUDS FROM THE
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
FROM THE TN VALLEY. THIS SHOULD HALT FOG DEVELOPMENT FURTHER EAST
BUT DUE TO THE SNOWPACK WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...DENSE FOG WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SHEN VALLEY. TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER 20S AND
LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION. ICY CONDITIONS FROM REFREEZE ARE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO THE TN VALLEY THIS MORNING.
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL CROSS SW VA THIS
MORNING AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/APPALACHIAN REGION OVERNIGHT.
THEY WILL PIVOT NORTHWARD THIS MORNING AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS
APPROACHES THE REGION. THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL KEEP MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE LWX REGION. LIGHT SHOWERS MAY SKIRT THE
CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT TODAY. MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED IN THIS AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE PRE DAWN HRS WHERE
TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND FREEZING WILL LEAD TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS
MORNING. TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S TO 40S TODAY.

AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE. UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT. UP TO
THREE INCHES IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN
SLOPES. FURTHER EAST...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A STRATO-CU
DECK AND SPRINKLES/FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES OVERHEAD TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS ON THE
WESTERN SLOPES WILL TAPER OFF BY FRIDAY MORNING. FCST MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S IN THE MTNS TO THE LOW 30S NEAR THE CITIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL MAY HAVE A FEW UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ONGOING TO START FRIDAY
OTHERWISE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FOR DRY
CONDITIONS/SOME SUNSHINE BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVE IN 500 MB FLOW
WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. MUCH
OF THE CWA SHOULD BE DRY ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ALLEGHENY/POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES
START TO MODERATE A LITTLE FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OFFSHORE WILL MODERATE
TEMPERATURES MORE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIKELY PUSH NORTH FOR SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS BUT CHANCE
OF PRECIP APPEARS MINIMAL.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
COLDER AIR IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT HAS LED TO SUDDEN DROPS
IN VSBYS AT CHO THIS MORNING. THIS IS POSSIBLE AT MRB-IAD THROUGH
THE DAWN HOURS. LIGHT SW WINDS WILL BECOME NW 5-10 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AT THE TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY THEN MOVES OFFSHORE FOR THE
WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT WX IS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NRLY WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED ON THE WATERS OVERNIGHT AS THE COASTAL LOW
MOVES FURTHER AWAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE WATERS
TODAY LEADING TO NW WINDS 10-15KTS TODAY. NRLY WINDS BEHIND THE LOW
WILL INCREASE AND SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS BECOMING ALL THE WATERS FRIDAY.

NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN FOR
SCA CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR LESS WIND
FRIDAY NIGHT. RETURN FLOW ON SATURDAY COULD THEN INCREASE INTO SCA
TERRITORY.

&&

.CLIMATE...

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ025>030-
     504.
WV...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ050-055-
     502-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ530>534-536-537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ535-
     538-542.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP/HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...BPP
AVIATION...BPP/HAS
MARINE...BPP/HAS
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KLWX 271012
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
512 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...EXPANDED DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO INCLUDE FREDERICK VA AND
HAMPSHIRE WV.

COASTAL LOW PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT RAIN AND SNOW TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OFF THE MAINE COAST THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS RIDGED INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.

SUBSIDENCE HAS LED TO AREAS OF CLEARING EARLY THIS MORNING. PATCHY
FOG HAS DEVELOPED AS CALM WINDS LEAD TO RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS
THE WET GROUND. DENSE FOG HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN VALLEY LOCATIONS
ESPECIALLY IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT THIS MORNING FOR THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. CLOUDS FROM THE
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
FROM THE TN VALLEY. THIS SHOULD HALT FOG DEVELOPMENT FURTHER EAST
BUT DUE TO THE SNOWPACK WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...DENSE FOG WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SHEN VALLEY. TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER 20S AND
LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION. ICY CONDITIONS FROM REFREEZE ARE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO THE TN VALLEY THIS MORNING.
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL CROSS SW VA THIS
MORNING AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/APPALACHIAN REGION OVERNIGHT.
THEY WILL PIVOT NORTHWARD THIS MORNING AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS
APPROACHES THE REGION. THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL KEEP MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE LWX REGION. LIGHT SHOWERS MAY SKIRT THE
CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT TODAY. MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED IN THIS AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE PRE DAWN HRS WHERE
TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND FREEZING WILL LEAD TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS
MORNING. TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S TO 40S TODAY.

AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE. UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT. UP TO
THREE INCHES IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN
SLOPES. FURTHER EAST...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A STRATO-CU
DECK AND SPRINKLES/FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES OVERHEAD TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS ON THE
WESTERN SLOPES WILL TAPER OFF BY FRIDAY MORNING. FCST MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S IN THE MTNS TO THE LOW 30S NEAR THE CITIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL MAY HAVE A FEW UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ONGOING TO START FRIDAY
OTHERWISE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FOR DRY
CONDITIONS/SOME SUNSHINE BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVE IN 500 MB FLOW
WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. MUCH
OF THE CWA SHOULD BE DRY ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ALLEGHENY/POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES
START TO MODERATE A LITTLE FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OFFSHORE WILL MODERATE
TEMPERATURES MORE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIKELY PUSH NORTH FOR SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS BUT CHANCE
OF PRECIP APPEARS MINIMAL.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
COLDER AIR IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT HAS LED TO SUDDEN DROPS
IN VSBYS AT CHO THIS MORNING. THIS IS POSSIBLE AT MRB-IAD THROUGH
THE DAWN HOURS. LIGHT SW WINDS WILL BECOME NW 5-10 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AT THE TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY THEN MOVES OFFSHORE FOR THE
WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT WX IS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NRLY WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED ON THE WATERS OVERNIGHT AS THE COASTAL LOW
MOVES FURTHER AWAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE WATERS
TODAY LEADING TO NW WINDS 10-15KTS TODAY. NRLY WINDS BEHIND THE LOW
WILL INCREASE AND SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS BECOMING ALL THE WATERS FRIDAY.

NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN FOR
SCA CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR LESS WIND
FRIDAY NIGHT. RETURN FLOW ON SATURDAY COULD THEN INCREASE INTO SCA
TERRITORY.

&&

.CLIMATE...

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ025>030-
     504.
WV...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ050-055-
     502-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ530>534-536-537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ535-
     538-542.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP/HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...BPP
AVIATION...BPP/HAS
MARINE...BPP/HAS
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KLWX 270854
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
354 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT RAIN AND SNOW TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OFF THE MAINE COAST THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS RIDGED INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.

SUBSIDENCE HAS LED TO AREAS OF CLEARING EARLY THIS MORNING. PATCHY
FOG HAS DEVELOPED AS CALM WINDS LEAD TO RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS
THE WET GROUND. DENSE FOG HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN VALLEY LOCATIONS
ESPECIALLY IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT THIS MORNING FOR THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. CLOUDS FROM THE
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
FROM THE TN VALLEY. THIS SHOULD HALT FOG DEVELOPMENT FURTHER EAST
BUT DUE TO THE SNOWPACK WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...DENSE FOG WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SHEN VALLEY. TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER 20S AND
LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION. ICY CONDITIONS FROM REFREEZE ARE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO THE TN VALLEY THIS MORNING.
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL CROSS SW VA THIS
MORNING AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/APPALACHIAN REGION OVERNIGHT.
THEY WILL PIVOT NORTHWARD THIS MORNING AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS
APPROACHES THE REGION. THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL KEEP MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE LWX REGION. LIGHT SHOWERS MAY SKIRT THE
CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT TODAY. MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED IN THIS AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE PRE DAWN HRS WHERE
TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND FREEZING WILL LEAD TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS
MORNING. TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S TO 40S TODAY.

AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE. UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT. UP TO
THREE INCHES IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN
SLOPES. FURTHER EAST...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A STRATO-CU
DECK AND SPRINKLES/FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES OVERHEAD TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS ON THE
WESTERN SLOPES WILL TAPER OFF BY FRIDAY MORNING. FCST MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S IN THE MTNS TO THE LOW 30S NEAR THE CITIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL MAY HAVE A FEW UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ONGOING TO START FRIDAY
OTHERWISE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FOR DRY
CONDITIONS/SOME SUNSHINE BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVE IN 500 MB FLOW
WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. MUCH
OF THE CWA SHOULD BE DRY ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ALLEGHENY/POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES
START TO MODERATE A LITTLE FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OFFSHORE WILL MODERATE
TEMPERATURES MORE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIKELY PUSH NORTH FOR SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS BUT CHANCE
OF PRECIP APPEARS MINIMAL.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
COLDER AIR IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT HAS LED TO SUDDEN DROPS
IN VSBYS AT CHO THIS MORNING. THIS IS POSSIBLE AT MRB-IAD THROUGH
THE DAWN HOURS. LIGHT SW WINDS WILL BECOME NW 5-10 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AT THE TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY THEN MOVES OFFSHORE FOR THE
WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT WX IS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NRLY WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED ON THE WATERS OVERNIGHT AS THE COASTAL LOW
MOVES FURTHER AWAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE WATERS
TODAY LEADING TO NW WINDS 10-15KTS TODAY. NRLY WINDS BEHIND THE LOW
WILL INCREASE AND SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS BECOMING ALL THE WATERS FRIDAY.

NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN FOR
SCA CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR LESS WIND
FRIDAY NIGHT. RETURN FLOW ON SATURDAY COULD THEN INCREASE INTO SCA
TERRITORY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ025>027-
     029-030-504.
WV...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ055-502-
     506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ530>534-536-537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ535-
     538-542.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS/BPP
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...BPP
AVIATION...HAS/BPP
MARINE...HAS/BPP









000
FXUS61 KLWX 270854
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
354 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT RAIN AND SNOW TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OFF THE MAINE COAST THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS RIDGED INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.

SUBSIDENCE HAS LED TO AREAS OF CLEARING EARLY THIS MORNING. PATCHY
FOG HAS DEVELOPED AS CALM WINDS LEAD TO RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS
THE WET GROUND. DENSE FOG HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN VALLEY LOCATIONS
ESPECIALLY IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT THIS MORNING FOR THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. CLOUDS FROM THE
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
FROM THE TN VALLEY. THIS SHOULD HALT FOG DEVELOPMENT FURTHER EAST
BUT DUE TO THE SNOWPACK WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...DENSE FOG WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SHEN VALLEY. TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER 20S AND
LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION. ICY CONDITIONS FROM REFREEZE ARE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO THE TN VALLEY THIS MORNING.
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL CROSS SW VA THIS
MORNING AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/APPALACHIAN REGION OVERNIGHT.
THEY WILL PIVOT NORTHWARD THIS MORNING AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS
APPROACHES THE REGION. THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL KEEP MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE LWX REGION. LIGHT SHOWERS MAY SKIRT THE
CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT TODAY. MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED IN THIS AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE PRE DAWN HRS WHERE
TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND FREEZING WILL LEAD TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS
MORNING. TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S TO 40S TODAY.

AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE. UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT. UP TO
THREE INCHES IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN
SLOPES. FURTHER EAST...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A STRATO-CU
DECK AND SPRINKLES/FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES OVERHEAD TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS ON THE
WESTERN SLOPES WILL TAPER OFF BY FRIDAY MORNING. FCST MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S IN THE MTNS TO THE LOW 30S NEAR THE CITIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL MAY HAVE A FEW UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ONGOING TO START FRIDAY
OTHERWISE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FOR DRY
CONDITIONS/SOME SUNSHINE BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVE IN 500 MB FLOW
WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. MUCH
OF THE CWA SHOULD BE DRY ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ALLEGHENY/POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES
START TO MODERATE A LITTLE FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OFFSHORE WILL MODERATE
TEMPERATURES MORE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIKELY PUSH NORTH FOR SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS BUT CHANCE
OF PRECIP APPEARS MINIMAL.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
COLDER AIR IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT HAS LED TO SUDDEN DROPS
IN VSBYS AT CHO THIS MORNING. THIS IS POSSIBLE AT MRB-IAD THROUGH
THE DAWN HOURS. LIGHT SW WINDS WILL BECOME NW 5-10 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AT THE TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY THEN MOVES OFFSHORE FOR THE
WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT WX IS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NRLY WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED ON THE WATERS OVERNIGHT AS THE COASTAL LOW
MOVES FURTHER AWAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE WATERS
TODAY LEADING TO NW WINDS 10-15KTS TODAY. NRLY WINDS BEHIND THE LOW
WILL INCREASE AND SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS BECOMING ALL THE WATERS FRIDAY.

NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN FOR
SCA CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR LESS WIND
FRIDAY NIGHT. RETURN FLOW ON SATURDAY COULD THEN INCREASE INTO SCA
TERRITORY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ025>027-
     029-030-504.
WV...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ055-502-
     506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ530>534-536-537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ535-
     538-542.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS/BPP
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...BPP
AVIATION...HAS/BPP
MARINE...HAS/BPP








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270829
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
329 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE
THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
STRNG UPR LVL LOW PROGGED TO MOVE EAST IVOF THE VA/NC BORDER TODAY
THEN QUICKLY OFFSHORE BY 00Z. BEST LIFT AND SPRT FOR PCPN WILL BE
NORTH OF LOW TRACK WHERE HIGHEST POPS (LIKELY) WILL BE. MODELS SHOW
A NARROW RIBBON OF DEEP MSTR (MAINLY ALONG AND S OF A I64 - RT360
LINE ON S TO THE BRDR. BUFFER AREAS BOTH TO THE N AND S OF THIS
RIBBON WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE.

GIVEN THE AIRMASS...SOME PTYPE ISSUES ARISE. HOWEVER...SFC TMPS
ARE XPCTD TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ALLOWING ANY FROZEN PCPN TO
MELT ON CONTACT. MID LVLS ARE COLD ENUF TO SPRT SNOW BUT LOW LVL
THICKNESSES SPRT MSTLY RAIN OR A RAIN/WET SNOW MIX. LIKE YSTRDY...
PCPN INTENSITY WILL LIKELY DETERMINE PTYPE AT ANY LOCATION THIS
MORNING WITH MORE RAIN THIS AFTRN AS TMPS RISE INTO THE 40S.

THUS...GRIDS WILL SHOW RAIN SHWRS AS PREDOMINANT PTYPE...MIXED WITH
WET SNOW AT TIMES NRTH OF RT 460. XPCT MAINLY RAIN SHWRS THRU THE
ENTIRE EVENT ACROSS SRN VA / NE NC CNTYS. PTCHY FOG ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT THIS MORNING.

NO ACCUMLS GIVEN SFC TMPS ABV FREEZING...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A QUICK
DUSTING IN ANY HEAVIER SHWR THAT FALLS AS WET SNOW. SHUD SEE SOME
PRTL SUNSHINE ACROSS WRN AREAS DRNG THE AFTRN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRS BUILDS ESE FROM THE MID MS VALLEY TONITE THEN BECOMES
CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA FRI/FRI NIGHT. THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS SE
AND OFF THE SE COAST BY SAT. MAINTAINED DRY CONDITIONS THRU THE
PRD...WITH SOME INCRS IN MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS FRI NIGHT / SAT
(ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE CWA). THIS AS FLOW ALOFT
FLATTENS AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.

TEMPS REMAIN BELOW AVG TONIGHT / FRI FOR THOSE HOLIDAY SHOPPERS.
LOWS IN THE 20S-L30S. HIGHS FRI 40-45. LOWS FRI NITE M20S-L30S.
TEMPS MODERATE A BIT ON SAT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SSW.
STILL A BIT BELOW AVG WITH HIGHS 50-55 F CENTRAL AND SOUTH AND IN
THE UPPER 40S NRTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT-SUN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
THRU THE REGION. SLY FLOW AND INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL
RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS SUN...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S. THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUN
NIGHT...CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA MON. FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED TO BE
DRY OVER THE REGION...EXCEPT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS AND ERN VA PIEDMONT...CLOSEST TO BEST MOISTURE. TEMPS
MON WARM INTO THE MID 60S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
MON NIGHT...LOCATING OVER NEW ENGLAND TUES AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES OVER THE LOCAL AREA...SETTING UP AN IN-SITU CAD WEDGE OVER
THE REGION...WITH NELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. HAVE INTRODUCED LIGHT OVERRUNNING
PRECIP MON NIGHT AND TUES. TUES HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S NW TO
MID 50S SE. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WEDS AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. HIGHS WEDS IN THE MID-UPPER
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT ALL TAF SITES WITH LIGHT WINDS.
NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO/THROUGH THE REGION AFTER 12Z WITH SOME -RA
POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCE WILL BE AT KRIC BETWEEN 11-15Z. MFVR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH ANY PCPN TODAY...AND POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS AT KRIC IF RAIN MIXES WITH SNOW.

OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY THIS AFTN/EVE WITH VFR AND DRY WX
INDICATED TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING (5-7
FT NORTH AND 4-6 FT SOUTH)...BUT THEY SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. WILL MAINTAIN SCA FOR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS THRU 7 AM...AND THE NORTHERN WATERS THRU 10 AM. OTW...W-NW
WINDS 5-15 KT WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE BY LATE MORNING.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS THIS AFTN AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT WITH NWLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT
OVER THE BAY/SOUND AND 20-25 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
RESPOND...BUILDING TO 5-6 FT...HIGHEST 20 NM OUT. THEREAFTER...HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS LATE FRI THRU THE WEEKEND...
RESULTING IN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ654-
     656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270829
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
329 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE
THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
STRNG UPR LVL LOW PROGGED TO MOVE EAST IVOF THE VA/NC BORDER TODAY
THEN QUICKLY OFFSHORE BY 00Z. BEST LIFT AND SPRT FOR PCPN WILL BE
NORTH OF LOW TRACK WHERE HIGHEST POPS (LIKELY) WILL BE. MODELS SHOW
A NARROW RIBBON OF DEEP MSTR (MAINLY ALONG AND S OF A I64 - RT360
LINE ON S TO THE BRDR. BUFFER AREAS BOTH TO THE N AND S OF THIS
RIBBON WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE.

GIVEN THE AIRMASS...SOME PTYPE ISSUES ARISE. HOWEVER...SFC TMPS
ARE XPCTD TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ALLOWING ANY FROZEN PCPN TO
MELT ON CONTACT. MID LVLS ARE COLD ENUF TO SPRT SNOW BUT LOW LVL
THICKNESSES SPRT MSTLY RAIN OR A RAIN/WET SNOW MIX. LIKE YSTRDY...
PCPN INTENSITY WILL LIKELY DETERMINE PTYPE AT ANY LOCATION THIS
MORNING WITH MORE RAIN THIS AFTRN AS TMPS RISE INTO THE 40S.

THUS...GRIDS WILL SHOW RAIN SHWRS AS PREDOMINANT PTYPE...MIXED WITH
WET SNOW AT TIMES NRTH OF RT 460. XPCT MAINLY RAIN SHWRS THRU THE
ENTIRE EVENT ACROSS SRN VA / NE NC CNTYS. PTCHY FOG ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT THIS MORNING.

NO ACCUMLS GIVEN SFC TMPS ABV FREEZING...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A QUICK
DUSTING IN ANY HEAVIER SHWR THAT FALLS AS WET SNOW. SHUD SEE SOME
PRTL SUNSHINE ACROSS WRN AREAS DRNG THE AFTRN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRS BUILDS ESE FROM THE MID MS VALLEY TONITE THEN BECOMES
CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA FRI/FRI NIGHT. THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS SE
AND OFF THE SE COAST BY SAT. MAINTAINED DRY CONDITIONS THRU THE
PRD...WITH SOME INCRS IN MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS FRI NIGHT / SAT
(ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE CWA). THIS AS FLOW ALOFT
FLATTENS AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.

TEMPS REMAIN BELOW AVG TONIGHT / FRI FOR THOSE HOLIDAY SHOPPERS.
LOWS IN THE 20S-L30S. HIGHS FRI 40-45. LOWS FRI NITE M20S-L30S.
TEMPS MODERATE A BIT ON SAT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SSW.
STILL A BIT BELOW AVG WITH HIGHS 50-55 F CENTRAL AND SOUTH AND IN
THE UPPER 40S NRTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT-SUN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
THRU THE REGION. SLY FLOW AND INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL
RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS SUN...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S. THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUN
NIGHT...CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA MON. FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED TO BE
DRY OVER THE REGION...EXCEPT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS AND ERN VA PIEDMONT...CLOSEST TO BEST MOISTURE. TEMPS
MON WARM INTO THE MID 60S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
MON NIGHT...LOCATING OVER NEW ENGLAND TUES AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES OVER THE LOCAL AREA...SETTING UP AN IN-SITU CAD WEDGE OVER
THE REGION...WITH NELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. HAVE INTRODUCED LIGHT OVERRUNNING
PRECIP MON NIGHT AND TUES. TUES HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S NW TO
MID 50S SE. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WEDS AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. HIGHS WEDS IN THE MID-UPPER
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT ALL TAF SITES WITH LIGHT WINDS.
NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO/THROUGH THE REGION AFTER 12Z WITH SOME -RA
POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCE WILL BE AT KRIC BETWEEN 11-15Z. MFVR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH ANY PCPN TODAY...AND POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS AT KRIC IF RAIN MIXES WITH SNOW.

OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY THIS AFTN/EVE WITH VFR AND DRY WX
INDICATED TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING (5-7
FT NORTH AND 4-6 FT SOUTH)...BUT THEY SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. WILL MAINTAIN SCA FOR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS THRU 7 AM...AND THE NORTHERN WATERS THRU 10 AM. OTW...W-NW
WINDS 5-15 KT WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE BY LATE MORNING.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS THIS AFTN AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT WITH NWLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT
OVER THE BAY/SOUND AND 20-25 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
RESPOND...BUILDING TO 5-6 FT...HIGHEST 20 NM OUT. THEREAFTER...HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS LATE FRI THRU THE WEEKEND...
RESULTING IN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ654-
     656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270829
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
329 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE
THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
STRNG UPR LVL LOW PROGGED TO MOVE EAST IVOF THE VA/NC BORDER TODAY
THEN QUICKLY OFFSHORE BY 00Z. BEST LIFT AND SPRT FOR PCPN WILL BE
NORTH OF LOW TRACK WHERE HIGHEST POPS (LIKELY) WILL BE. MODELS SHOW
A NARROW RIBBON OF DEEP MSTR (MAINLY ALONG AND S OF A I64 - RT360
LINE ON S TO THE BRDR. BUFFER AREAS BOTH TO THE N AND S OF THIS
RIBBON WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE.

GIVEN THE AIRMASS...SOME PTYPE ISSUES ARISE. HOWEVER...SFC TMPS
ARE XPCTD TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ALLOWING ANY FROZEN PCPN TO
MELT ON CONTACT. MID LVLS ARE COLD ENUF TO SPRT SNOW BUT LOW LVL
THICKNESSES SPRT MSTLY RAIN OR A RAIN/WET SNOW MIX. LIKE YSTRDY...
PCPN INTENSITY WILL LIKELY DETERMINE PTYPE AT ANY LOCATION THIS
MORNING WITH MORE RAIN THIS AFTRN AS TMPS RISE INTO THE 40S.

THUS...GRIDS WILL SHOW RAIN SHWRS AS PREDOMINANT PTYPE...MIXED WITH
WET SNOW AT TIMES NRTH OF RT 460. XPCT MAINLY RAIN SHWRS THRU THE
ENTIRE EVENT ACROSS SRN VA / NE NC CNTYS. PTCHY FOG ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT THIS MORNING.

NO ACCUMLS GIVEN SFC TMPS ABV FREEZING...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A QUICK
DUSTING IN ANY HEAVIER SHWR THAT FALLS AS WET SNOW. SHUD SEE SOME
PRTL SUNSHINE ACROSS WRN AREAS DRNG THE AFTRN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRS BUILDS ESE FROM THE MID MS VALLEY TONITE THEN BECOMES
CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA FRI/FRI NIGHT. THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS SE
AND OFF THE SE COAST BY SAT. MAINTAINED DRY CONDITIONS THRU THE
PRD...WITH SOME INCRS IN MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS FRI NIGHT / SAT
(ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE CWA). THIS AS FLOW ALOFT
FLATTENS AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.

TEMPS REMAIN BELOW AVG TONIGHT / FRI FOR THOSE HOLIDAY SHOPPERS.
LOWS IN THE 20S-L30S. HIGHS FRI 40-45. LOWS FRI NITE M20S-L30S.
TEMPS MODERATE A BIT ON SAT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SSW.
STILL A BIT BELOW AVG WITH HIGHS 50-55 F CENTRAL AND SOUTH AND IN
THE UPPER 40S NRTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT-SUN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
THRU THE REGION. SLY FLOW AND INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL
RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS SUN...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S. THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUN
NIGHT...CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA MON. FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED TO BE
DRY OVER THE REGION...EXCEPT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS AND ERN VA PIEDMONT...CLOSEST TO BEST MOISTURE. TEMPS
MON WARM INTO THE MID 60S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
MON NIGHT...LOCATING OVER NEW ENGLAND TUES AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES OVER THE LOCAL AREA...SETTING UP AN IN-SITU CAD WEDGE OVER
THE REGION...WITH NELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. HAVE INTRODUCED LIGHT OVERRUNNING
PRECIP MON NIGHT AND TUES. TUES HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S NW TO
MID 50S SE. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WEDS AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. HIGHS WEDS IN THE MID-UPPER
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT ALL TAF SITES WITH LIGHT WINDS.
NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO/THROUGH THE REGION AFTER 12Z WITH SOME -RA
POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCE WILL BE AT KRIC BETWEEN 11-15Z. MFVR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH ANY PCPN TODAY...AND POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS AT KRIC IF RAIN MIXES WITH SNOW.

OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY THIS AFTN/EVE WITH VFR AND DRY WX
INDICATED TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING (5-7
FT NORTH AND 4-6 FT SOUTH)...BUT THEY SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. WILL MAINTAIN SCA FOR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS THRU 7 AM...AND THE NORTHERN WATERS THRU 10 AM. OTW...W-NW
WINDS 5-15 KT WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE BY LATE MORNING.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS THIS AFTN AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT WITH NWLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT
OVER THE BAY/SOUND AND 20-25 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
RESPOND...BUILDING TO 5-6 FT...HIGHEST 20 NM OUT. THEREAFTER...HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS LATE FRI THRU THE WEEKEND...
RESULTING IN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ654-
     656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270829
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
329 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE
THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
STRNG UPR LVL LOW PROGGED TO MOVE EAST IVOF THE VA/NC BORDER TODAY
THEN QUICKLY OFFSHORE BY 00Z. BEST LIFT AND SPRT FOR PCPN WILL BE
NORTH OF LOW TRACK WHERE HIGHEST POPS (LIKELY) WILL BE. MODELS SHOW
A NARROW RIBBON OF DEEP MSTR (MAINLY ALONG AND S OF A I64 - RT360
LINE ON S TO THE BRDR. BUFFER AREAS BOTH TO THE N AND S OF THIS
RIBBON WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE.

GIVEN THE AIRMASS...SOME PTYPE ISSUES ARISE. HOWEVER...SFC TMPS
ARE XPCTD TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ALLOWING ANY FROZEN PCPN TO
MELT ON CONTACT. MID LVLS ARE COLD ENUF TO SPRT SNOW BUT LOW LVL
THICKNESSES SPRT MSTLY RAIN OR A RAIN/WET SNOW MIX. LIKE YSTRDY...
PCPN INTENSITY WILL LIKELY DETERMINE PTYPE AT ANY LOCATION THIS
MORNING WITH MORE RAIN THIS AFTRN AS TMPS RISE INTO THE 40S.

THUS...GRIDS WILL SHOW RAIN SHWRS AS PREDOMINANT PTYPE...MIXED WITH
WET SNOW AT TIMES NRTH OF RT 460. XPCT MAINLY RAIN SHWRS THRU THE
ENTIRE EVENT ACROSS SRN VA / NE NC CNTYS. PTCHY FOG ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT THIS MORNING.

NO ACCUMLS GIVEN SFC TMPS ABV FREEZING...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A QUICK
DUSTING IN ANY HEAVIER SHWR THAT FALLS AS WET SNOW. SHUD SEE SOME
PRTL SUNSHINE ACROSS WRN AREAS DRNG THE AFTRN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRS BUILDS ESE FROM THE MID MS VALLEY TONITE THEN BECOMES
CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA FRI/FRI NIGHT. THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS SE
AND OFF THE SE COAST BY SAT. MAINTAINED DRY CONDITIONS THRU THE
PRD...WITH SOME INCRS IN MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS FRI NIGHT / SAT
(ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE CWA). THIS AS FLOW ALOFT
FLATTENS AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.

TEMPS REMAIN BELOW AVG TONIGHT / FRI FOR THOSE HOLIDAY SHOPPERS.
LOWS IN THE 20S-L30S. HIGHS FRI 40-45. LOWS FRI NITE M20S-L30S.
TEMPS MODERATE A BIT ON SAT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SSW.
STILL A BIT BELOW AVG WITH HIGHS 50-55 F CENTRAL AND SOUTH AND IN
THE UPPER 40S NRTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT-SUN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
THRU THE REGION. SLY FLOW AND INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL
RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS SUN...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S. THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUN
NIGHT...CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA MON. FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED TO BE
DRY OVER THE REGION...EXCEPT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS AND ERN VA PIEDMONT...CLOSEST TO BEST MOISTURE. TEMPS
MON WARM INTO THE MID 60S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
MON NIGHT...LOCATING OVER NEW ENGLAND TUES AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES OVER THE LOCAL AREA...SETTING UP AN IN-SITU CAD WEDGE OVER
THE REGION...WITH NELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. HAVE INTRODUCED LIGHT OVERRUNNING
PRECIP MON NIGHT AND TUES. TUES HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S NW TO
MID 50S SE. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WEDS AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. HIGHS WEDS IN THE MID-UPPER
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT ALL TAF SITES WITH LIGHT WINDS.
NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO/THROUGH THE REGION AFTER 12Z WITH SOME -RA
POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCE WILL BE AT KRIC BETWEEN 11-15Z. MFVR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH ANY PCPN TODAY...AND POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS AT KRIC IF RAIN MIXES WITH SNOW.

OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY THIS AFTN/EVE WITH VFR AND DRY WX
INDICATED TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING (5-7
FT NORTH AND 4-6 FT SOUTH)...BUT THEY SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. WILL MAINTAIN SCA FOR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS THRU 7 AM...AND THE NORTHERN WATERS THRU 10 AM. OTW...W-NW
WINDS 5-15 KT WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE BY LATE MORNING.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS THIS AFTN AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT WITH NWLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT
OVER THE BAY/SOUND AND 20-25 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
RESPOND...BUILDING TO 5-6 FT...HIGHEST 20 NM OUT. THEREAFTER...HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS LATE FRI THRU THE WEEKEND...
RESULTING IN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ654-
     656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM







000
FXUS61 KRNK 270814
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
314 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION THIS MORNING AND OFFSHORE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BRINGING COLDER AIR AND
GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE
THIS WEEKEND RESULTING IN WARMER...AND DRIER WEATHER INTO SUNDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EST THURSDAY...

STRONG SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE 5H TROUGH WILL FINALLY SERVE
AS THE CABOOSE TO THE ONGOING WINTRY WEATHER TODAY AS IT PASSES ACROSS
THE NC RIDGES THIS MORNING AND TO THE SE OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS FEATURE WILL AGAIN TEND TO ENHANCE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE
CWA THIS MORNING...WITH THE MAIN LIFT BACK OVER THE WEST/SW PORTIONS IN
THE COLDER AIR ALOFT EARLY ON BEFORE BETTER SUPPORT SHIFTS OFF TO THE
SE WITH A WEAK INDUCED SURFACE WAVE. MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT MOST OF
THE REGION IN A BROAD SWATH OF LIGHT PRECIP THIS MORNING BEFORE
TAPERING TO MAINLY THE EAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING.
DEGREE OF ORGANIZATION LOOKS IFFY BUT SUSPECT WILL SEE A FEW MORE
BANDS OF SNOW WEST THIS MORNING WITH ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE UPSLOPISH BEHIND THE PASSING VORT
AXIS. THEREFORE WILL BE LEAVING THE GOING ADVISORY IN PLACE WITH
ANOTHER INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE MAINLY SW PORTIONS...AND ONLY SPOTTY
ADDED TOTALS HEADING OUT TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE MAY INIT AS
RAIN BEFORE DAYBREAK. SHOULD ALSO SEE PATCHY/BANDS OF RAIN EAST
BUT PERHAPS MIXED WITH SNOW AT TIMES WHERE PRECIP COMES DOWN A BIT
HARDER. PRECIP MAY ALSO END AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW PIEDMONT
LATE MORNING AS THE COLD POCKET ALOFT PASSES. HOWEVER QPF LOOKING
RATHER LIGHT WITH A TENTH OR LESS MOST SPOTS TODAY EXCEPT UP TO A
QUARTER INCH OUT EAST AND ACROSS THE SW RIDGES. EXPECT A BREAK IN
POPS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME SUN POSSIBLE AS DOWNSLOPE KICKS IN
AND BEFORE BETTER UPSLOPE DEVELOPS WEST THIS EVENING. KEPT HIGH
TEMPS CLOSER TO THE COLDER MAV MOS ALTHOUGH MAY BE EVEN COLDER SE
PENDING DEGREE OF CLOUDS/PRECIP COVERAGE THIS MORNING.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN BEHIND THE PASSING CLIPPER TYPE
WAVE TONIGHT WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE LEADING TO ADDED UPSLOPE -SHSN
ESPCLY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SOME ADDED ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE BUT
THINKING WONT NEED MORE HEADLINES WITH AN INCH OR SO ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES AND FLURRIES OUT TO THE BLUE RIDGE EARLY THIS
EVENING. OTRW GRADUAL CLEARING OUTSIDE THE UPSLOPE AREAS AS
MOISTURE BECOMES SHALLOW AND MIXES OUT IN BETTER DOWNSLOPING OUT
EAST. HOWEVER DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE OFFSHORE WAVE
DEEPENING AND STEADY 85H COLD ADVECTION...TO MAKE WINDS QUITE
GUSTY AND POSSIBLY JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE HIGHER
RIDGES IN NW NC. OTRW QUITE COLD AGAIN WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE OF
MOS GUIDANCE GIVEN MIXING OFFSET OF COLD ADVECTION...EXCEPT IN
SPOTS OVER THE WEST WHERE SOME SNOW COVER WILL RESIDE AND LIKELY
HELP PUSH LOWS INTO THE TEENS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EST THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...CAUSING
RESIDUAL UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN RIDGES TO COME TO
AN END BY LUNCHTIME. ALTHOUGH A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HAVE
SHIFTED OVER THE ATLANTIC BY SUNRISE...HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN DURING
THE AFTERNOON WILL LIMIT HEATING...AND EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 30S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA TO THE LOW
40S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA. LOWS
WILL BE ON CHILLY SIDE...GENERALLY FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
20S...WITH A FEW UPPER TEENS IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO A WARM UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
A WARM FRONT PASSING ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. MAY SEE A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE ON SUNDAY AS GULF MOISTURE FLOWS NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. EXPECT SATURDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S...WITH SUNDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS SOME 10
DEGREES WARMER. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
APPALACHIAN CHAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE
WESTERN RIDGES.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL TRY AND PUSH SOUTH
OF THE AREA. WITH A STRONG AND BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTH...
EXPECTING LATER MODEL RUNS TO DELAY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL
SOMETIME TUESDAY. SINCE THE ECM/GFS HAS THIS FRONT ENTERING THE AREA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. ALSO HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS TUESDAY FOR A
POSSIBLE FRONTAL PASSAGE OR FOR THE FRONT STALLING IN THE REGION.
EITHER WAY AND/OR EITHER DAY...TEMPERATURES AND THICKNESSES ARE WARM
TO KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION FALLING AS RAIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVER NEW ENGLAND FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND REMAIN
IN THE AREA TROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. EVEN THOUGH THIS
WEDGE IS STRONG (1035MB)...MODELS REMAINING WARM AND CLOSE TO
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM EST THURSDAY...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER FAR
WESTERN VIRGINIA THIS MORNING...TRAVELING EAST. THE LOW IS BRINGING
WITH IT BANDS A LIGHT SNOW THAT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA ARE VARIABLE...
RANGING FROM IFR TO MOSTLY CLEAR. HOWEVER...PATCHY DENSE FOG IS
DEVELOPING WHERE CEILINGS SCATTER...MAKING MOST OF THE REGION LOW
MVFR/IFR AS A NET RESULT.

POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS
SNOW BANDS PASS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...CHANGING OVER TO RAIN IN
THE WARMER AIR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. ONCE THE LOW PASSES EAST
LATE THURSDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA...WITH WIND SPEEDS FROM THE WEST GUSTING 15KT TO 25KT...
TOPPING 30KT AT TIMES. CEILINGS WILL ALSO IMPROVE TO VFR FOR
ROA/LYH/DAN...HOWEVER THE TRANSITION TO VFR WILL BE MORE GRADUAL
FOR BLF/BCB/LWB...TAKING UNTIL LATE EVENING.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...RESULTING IN
VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION
ON MONDAY...BRINGING A RETURN OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS RANGED FROM ABOUT 0.50 TO 1.25
INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT WITH A FEW GAGES PICKING UP IN EXCESS
OF 1.50 INCHES MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NEW RIVER AND UPPER
ROANOKE AND DAN RIVER BASINS. THE LESSER AMOUNTS WERE GENERALLY
OBSERVED OVER THE WESTERN BASINS INCLUDING THE GREENBRIER AND
UPPER JAMES. RADAR PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES EXTREMELY CONTAMINATED
BY BRIGHT BAND EFFECTS. RUNOFF CAUSING SMALLER STREAMS TO SHOW
SOME NICE RISES BUT ALL WELL WITHIN BANKS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WAS MALFUNCTIONING
AGAIN. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER BUT THE REPAIR MAY NOT BE UNTIL
MONDAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLYH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STAFF WHEN THE
CONTROL TOWER IS OPEN...OTHERWISE THE VISIBILITY WILL BE MISSING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ007-009-
     015.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR WVZ508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/MBS
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...NF/PC
HYDROLOGY...PC
EQUIPMENT...AMS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 270814
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
314 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION THIS MORNING AND OFFSHORE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BRINGING COLDER AIR AND
GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE
THIS WEEKEND RESULTING IN WARMER...AND DRIER WEATHER INTO SUNDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EST THURSDAY...

STRONG SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE 5H TROUGH WILL FINALLY SERVE
AS THE CABOOSE TO THE ONGOING WINTRY WEATHER TODAY AS IT PASSES ACROSS
THE NC RIDGES THIS MORNING AND TO THE SE OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS FEATURE WILL AGAIN TEND TO ENHANCE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE
CWA THIS MORNING...WITH THE MAIN LIFT BACK OVER THE WEST/SW PORTIONS IN
THE COLDER AIR ALOFT EARLY ON BEFORE BETTER SUPPORT SHIFTS OFF TO THE
SE WITH A WEAK INDUCED SURFACE WAVE. MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT MOST OF
THE REGION IN A BROAD SWATH OF LIGHT PRECIP THIS MORNING BEFORE
TAPERING TO MAINLY THE EAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING.
DEGREE OF ORGANIZATION LOOKS IFFY BUT SUSPECT WILL SEE A FEW MORE
BANDS OF SNOW WEST THIS MORNING WITH ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE UPSLOPISH BEHIND THE PASSING VORT
AXIS. THEREFORE WILL BE LEAVING THE GOING ADVISORY IN PLACE WITH
ANOTHER INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE MAINLY SW PORTIONS...AND ONLY SPOTTY
ADDED TOTALS HEADING OUT TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE MAY INIT AS
RAIN BEFORE DAYBREAK. SHOULD ALSO SEE PATCHY/BANDS OF RAIN EAST
BUT PERHAPS MIXED WITH SNOW AT TIMES WHERE PRECIP COMES DOWN A BIT
HARDER. PRECIP MAY ALSO END AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW PIEDMONT
LATE MORNING AS THE COLD POCKET ALOFT PASSES. HOWEVER QPF LOOKING
RATHER LIGHT WITH A TENTH OR LESS MOST SPOTS TODAY EXCEPT UP TO A
QUARTER INCH OUT EAST AND ACROSS THE SW RIDGES. EXPECT A BREAK IN
POPS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME SUN POSSIBLE AS DOWNSLOPE KICKS IN
AND BEFORE BETTER UPSLOPE DEVELOPS WEST THIS EVENING. KEPT HIGH
TEMPS CLOSER TO THE COLDER MAV MOS ALTHOUGH MAY BE EVEN COLDER SE
PENDING DEGREE OF CLOUDS/PRECIP COVERAGE THIS MORNING.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN BEHIND THE PASSING CLIPPER TYPE
WAVE TONIGHT WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE LEADING TO ADDED UPSLOPE -SHSN
ESPCLY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SOME ADDED ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE BUT
THINKING WONT NEED MORE HEADLINES WITH AN INCH OR SO ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES AND FLURRIES OUT TO THE BLUE RIDGE EARLY THIS
EVENING. OTRW GRADUAL CLEARING OUTSIDE THE UPSLOPE AREAS AS
MOISTURE BECOMES SHALLOW AND MIXES OUT IN BETTER DOWNSLOPING OUT
EAST. HOWEVER DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE OFFSHORE WAVE
DEEPENING AND STEADY 85H COLD ADVECTION...TO MAKE WINDS QUITE
GUSTY AND POSSIBLY JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE HIGHER
RIDGES IN NW NC. OTRW QUITE COLD AGAIN WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE OF
MOS GUIDANCE GIVEN MIXING OFFSET OF COLD ADVECTION...EXCEPT IN
SPOTS OVER THE WEST WHERE SOME SNOW COVER WILL RESIDE AND LIKELY
HELP PUSH LOWS INTO THE TEENS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EST THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...CAUSING
RESIDUAL UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN RIDGES TO COME TO
AN END BY LUNCHTIME. ALTHOUGH A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HAVE
SHIFTED OVER THE ATLANTIC BY SUNRISE...HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN DURING
THE AFTERNOON WILL LIMIT HEATING...AND EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 30S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA TO THE LOW
40S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA. LOWS
WILL BE ON CHILLY SIDE...GENERALLY FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
20S...WITH A FEW UPPER TEENS IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO A WARM UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
A WARM FRONT PASSING ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. MAY SEE A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE ON SUNDAY AS GULF MOISTURE FLOWS NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. EXPECT SATURDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S...WITH SUNDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS SOME 10
DEGREES WARMER. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
APPALACHIAN CHAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE
WESTERN RIDGES.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL TRY AND PUSH SOUTH
OF THE AREA. WITH A STRONG AND BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTH...
EXPECTING LATER MODEL RUNS TO DELAY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL
SOMETIME TUESDAY. SINCE THE ECM/GFS HAS THIS FRONT ENTERING THE AREA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. ALSO HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS TUESDAY FOR A
POSSIBLE FRONTAL PASSAGE OR FOR THE FRONT STALLING IN THE REGION.
EITHER WAY AND/OR EITHER DAY...TEMPERATURES AND THICKNESSES ARE WARM
TO KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION FALLING AS RAIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVER NEW ENGLAND FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND REMAIN
IN THE AREA TROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. EVEN THOUGH THIS
WEDGE IS STRONG (1035MB)...MODELS REMAINING WARM AND CLOSE TO
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM EST THURSDAY...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER FAR
WESTERN VIRGINIA THIS MORNING...TRAVELING EAST. THE LOW IS BRINGING
WITH IT BANDS A LIGHT SNOW THAT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA ARE VARIABLE...
RANGING FROM IFR TO MOSTLY CLEAR. HOWEVER...PATCHY DENSE FOG IS
DEVELOPING WHERE CEILINGS SCATTER...MAKING MOST OF THE REGION LOW
MVFR/IFR AS A NET RESULT.

POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS
SNOW BANDS PASS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...CHANGING OVER TO RAIN IN
THE WARMER AIR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. ONCE THE LOW PASSES EAST
LATE THURSDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA...WITH WIND SPEEDS FROM THE WEST GUSTING 15KT TO 25KT...
TOPPING 30KT AT TIMES. CEILINGS WILL ALSO IMPROVE TO VFR FOR
ROA/LYH/DAN...HOWEVER THE TRANSITION TO VFR WILL BE MORE GRADUAL
FOR BLF/BCB/LWB...TAKING UNTIL LATE EVENING.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...RESULTING IN
VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION
ON MONDAY...BRINGING A RETURN OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS RANGED FROM ABOUT 0.50 TO 1.25
INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT WITH A FEW GAGES PICKING UP IN EXCESS
OF 1.50 INCHES MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NEW RIVER AND UPPER
ROANOKE AND DAN RIVER BASINS. THE LESSER AMOUNTS WERE GENERALLY
OBSERVED OVER THE WESTERN BASINS INCLUDING THE GREENBRIER AND
UPPER JAMES. RADAR PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES EXTREMELY CONTAMINATED
BY BRIGHT BAND EFFECTS. RUNOFF CAUSING SMALLER STREAMS TO SHOW
SOME NICE RISES BUT ALL WELL WITHIN BANKS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WAS MALFUNCTIONING
AGAIN. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER BUT THE REPAIR MAY NOT BE UNTIL
MONDAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLYH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STAFF WHEN THE
CONTROL TOWER IS OPEN...OTHERWISE THE VISIBILITY WILL BE MISSING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ007-009-
     015.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR WVZ508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/MBS
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...NF/PC
HYDROLOGY...PC
EQUIPMENT...AMS



000
FXUS61 KLWX 270803
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
303 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT. AN
UPPER- LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY
THIS MORNING. CLEARING OVERNIGHT CALM WINDS AND FRESH SNOWPACK HAS
LED TO FOG DEVELOPMENT. INTERSTATE 81 WILL BE IMPACTED IN
LOCATIONS. ICY SPOTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AS TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW
FREEZING THIS MORNING.

COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RACE NORTHEAST OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW HAS
LARGELY KICKED INTO PLACE ACROSS THE REGION EXCEPT FOR A FEW
PASSING FLURRIES/SPRINKLES OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT. FORCING WILL BE WEAK WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT
NONETHELESS...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS OVERNIGHT. DECENT SNOW PACK AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. SOME OF
THE FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE. WILL CONTINUE MENTION IN THE HWO.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING IN MOST PLACES EXCEPT THE
METRO CENTERS. THIS WILL LEAD TO REFREEZING CONCERNS ON SECONDARY
ROADWAYS OR UNTREATED SURFACES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. A STRAY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD...BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY AND
CHILLY WITH SOME SUNSHINE. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S AND
LOWER 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S IN CENTRAL
VIRGINIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST OVER THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY. NWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE UPSLOPE SNOW WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT INTO LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF AS
THE SATURATED LAYER DECREASES. SHOULD JUST BE WAVE CLOUDS EAST OF
THERE SINCE THE UPR TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY
EVENING. NWLY FLOW GUSTS PERIODICALLY TO 20 TO 25 MPH THURSDAY
NIGHT IN COLD AIR ADVECTION...THEN MIXES DOWN AGAIN ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY. GRADIENT SLACKENS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH CENTER CROSSES THE AREA WITH CLEAR AND
CALM AND MIN TEMPS BACK BELOW FREEZING. PLACES WITH A REMAINING
SNOWPACK OF MORE THAN A FEW INCHES (HIGHER ELEVATIONS) WILL SEE A
MARKED DROP IN TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLY INTO THE TEENS. LOW 30S
ALONG THE SHORE LINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND SETTING UP A SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL UNDER THIS
REGIME. A FRONT WILL BUMP INTO THIS HIGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND THEN
STALL NEAR THE AREA NEXT WEEK. IT LOOKS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN SHOWERS
ALONG THIS FRONT MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE BY TO THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT GETS IT
MAY NOT GET MUCH COOLER. MODELS DISAGREE ON THIS PLACEMENT SO
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL SITES OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY
FOG COULD DEVELOP ESPECIALLY WHERE SNOW PACK EXISTS. SOME OF THE
FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE.

AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY. VFR
CONDITIONS WITH NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THURSDAY.

NWLY FLOW GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS (VFR CONDS). HIGH OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CONTINUED
VFR.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE WEEKEND W/ WIND BECOMING S AROUND 10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE WINDS
DIMINISH BEHIND THE DEPARTING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA CRITERIA. SURGE OF NWLY FLOW THURSDAY EVENING WITH 20 TO
25 KT GUSTS OVER MOST OF THE WATERS (SCA FOR ALL BUT UPPER TIDAL
POTOMAC...PATAPSCO AND PATUXENT)...THEN ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH SUNSET AS GRADIENT SLACKENS. HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SLY FLOW BEGINNING SATURDAY
MORNING.

SOUTHERLY FLOW TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A
FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR EARLIEST MEASURABLE SNOW ALREADY PASSED A FEW WEEKS
AGO...BUT BELOW IS A LIST OF DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RECORDS
SPECIFIC TO THE DATE OF NOVEMBER 26TH. THE SNOWFALL REPORTED AT
DULLES SO FAR TODAY HAS BEEN 1.6 INCHES /AS OF 3 PM/ AND THIS
BREAKS THE OLD RECORD BELOW OF 1.1 INCHES SET IN 1978. DCA/BWI
RECORDS ARE SAFE.

DCA   2.2" (1898)
BWI   4.5" (1898)
IAD   1.1" (1978)

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ025>027-
     029-030-504.
WV...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ055-502-
     506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ530>534-536-537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ535-
     538-542.

&&

$$
UPDATE...HAS
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...KRW/DFH
MARINE...KRW/DFH
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KLWX 270803
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
303 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT. AN
UPPER- LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY
THIS MORNING. CLEARING OVERNIGHT CALM WINDS AND FRESH SNOWPACK HAS
LED TO FOG DEVELOPMENT. INTERSTATE 81 WILL BE IMPACTED IN
LOCATIONS. ICY SPOTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AS TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW
FREEZING THIS MORNING.

COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RACE NORTHEAST OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW HAS
LARGELY KICKED INTO PLACE ACROSS THE REGION EXCEPT FOR A FEW
PASSING FLURRIES/SPRINKLES OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT. FORCING WILL BE WEAK WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT
NONETHELESS...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS OVERNIGHT. DECENT SNOW PACK AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. SOME OF
THE FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE. WILL CONTINUE MENTION IN THE HWO.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING IN MOST PLACES EXCEPT THE
METRO CENTERS. THIS WILL LEAD TO REFREEZING CONCERNS ON SECONDARY
ROADWAYS OR UNTREATED SURFACES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. A STRAY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD...BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY AND
CHILLY WITH SOME SUNSHINE. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S AND
LOWER 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S IN CENTRAL
VIRGINIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST OVER THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY. NWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE UPSLOPE SNOW WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT INTO LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF AS
THE SATURATED LAYER DECREASES. SHOULD JUST BE WAVE CLOUDS EAST OF
THERE SINCE THE UPR TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY
EVENING. NWLY FLOW GUSTS PERIODICALLY TO 20 TO 25 MPH THURSDAY
NIGHT IN COLD AIR ADVECTION...THEN MIXES DOWN AGAIN ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY. GRADIENT SLACKENS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH CENTER CROSSES THE AREA WITH CLEAR AND
CALM AND MIN TEMPS BACK BELOW FREEZING. PLACES WITH A REMAINING
SNOWPACK OF MORE THAN A FEW INCHES (HIGHER ELEVATIONS) WILL SEE A
MARKED DROP IN TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLY INTO THE TEENS. LOW 30S
ALONG THE SHORE LINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND SETTING UP A SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL UNDER THIS
REGIME. A FRONT WILL BUMP INTO THIS HIGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND THEN
STALL NEAR THE AREA NEXT WEEK. IT LOOKS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN SHOWERS
ALONG THIS FRONT MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE BY TO THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT GETS IT
MAY NOT GET MUCH COOLER. MODELS DISAGREE ON THIS PLACEMENT SO
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL SITES OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY
FOG COULD DEVELOP ESPECIALLY WHERE SNOW PACK EXISTS. SOME OF THE
FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE.

AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY. VFR
CONDITIONS WITH NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THURSDAY.

NWLY FLOW GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS (VFR CONDS). HIGH OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CONTINUED
VFR.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE WEEKEND W/ WIND BECOMING S AROUND 10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE WINDS
DIMINISH BEHIND THE DEPARTING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA CRITERIA. SURGE OF NWLY FLOW THURSDAY EVENING WITH 20 TO
25 KT GUSTS OVER MOST OF THE WATERS (SCA FOR ALL BUT UPPER TIDAL
POTOMAC...PATAPSCO AND PATUXENT)...THEN ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH SUNSET AS GRADIENT SLACKENS. HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SLY FLOW BEGINNING SATURDAY
MORNING.

SOUTHERLY FLOW TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A
FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR EARLIEST MEASURABLE SNOW ALREADY PASSED A FEW WEEKS
AGO...BUT BELOW IS A LIST OF DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RECORDS
SPECIFIC TO THE DATE OF NOVEMBER 26TH. THE SNOWFALL REPORTED AT
DULLES SO FAR TODAY HAS BEEN 1.6 INCHES /AS OF 3 PM/ AND THIS
BREAKS THE OLD RECORD BELOW OF 1.1 INCHES SET IN 1978. DCA/BWI
RECORDS ARE SAFE.

DCA   2.2" (1898)
BWI   4.5" (1898)
IAD   1.1" (1978)

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ025>027-
     029-030-504.
WV...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ055-502-
     506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ530>534-536-537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ535-
     538-542.

&&

$$
UPDATE...HAS
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...KRW/DFH
MARINE...KRW/DFH
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KLWX 270803
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
303 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT. AN
UPPER- LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY
THIS MORNING. CLEARING OVERNIGHT CALM WINDS AND FRESH SNOWPACK HAS
LED TO FOG DEVELOPMENT. INTERSTATE 81 WILL BE IMPACTED IN
LOCATIONS. ICY SPOTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AS TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW
FREEZING THIS MORNING.

COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RACE NORTHEAST OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW HAS
LARGELY KICKED INTO PLACE ACROSS THE REGION EXCEPT FOR A FEW
PASSING FLURRIES/SPRINKLES OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT. FORCING WILL BE WEAK WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT
NONETHELESS...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS OVERNIGHT. DECENT SNOW PACK AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. SOME OF
THE FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE. WILL CONTINUE MENTION IN THE HWO.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING IN MOST PLACES EXCEPT THE
METRO CENTERS. THIS WILL LEAD TO REFREEZING CONCERNS ON SECONDARY
ROADWAYS OR UNTREATED SURFACES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. A STRAY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD...BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY AND
CHILLY WITH SOME SUNSHINE. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S AND
LOWER 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S IN CENTRAL
VIRGINIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST OVER THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY. NWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE UPSLOPE SNOW WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT INTO LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF AS
THE SATURATED LAYER DECREASES. SHOULD JUST BE WAVE CLOUDS EAST OF
THERE SINCE THE UPR TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY
EVENING. NWLY FLOW GUSTS PERIODICALLY TO 20 TO 25 MPH THURSDAY
NIGHT IN COLD AIR ADVECTION...THEN MIXES DOWN AGAIN ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY. GRADIENT SLACKENS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH CENTER CROSSES THE AREA WITH CLEAR AND
CALM AND MIN TEMPS BACK BELOW FREEZING. PLACES WITH A REMAINING
SNOWPACK OF MORE THAN A FEW INCHES (HIGHER ELEVATIONS) WILL SEE A
MARKED DROP IN TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLY INTO THE TEENS. LOW 30S
ALONG THE SHORE LINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND SETTING UP A SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL UNDER THIS
REGIME. A FRONT WILL BUMP INTO THIS HIGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND THEN
STALL NEAR THE AREA NEXT WEEK. IT LOOKS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN SHOWERS
ALONG THIS FRONT MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE BY TO THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT GETS IT
MAY NOT GET MUCH COOLER. MODELS DISAGREE ON THIS PLACEMENT SO
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL SITES OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY
FOG COULD DEVELOP ESPECIALLY WHERE SNOW PACK EXISTS. SOME OF THE
FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE.

AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY. VFR
CONDITIONS WITH NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THURSDAY.

NWLY FLOW GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS (VFR CONDS). HIGH OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CONTINUED
VFR.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE WEEKEND W/ WIND BECOMING S AROUND 10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE WINDS
DIMINISH BEHIND THE DEPARTING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA CRITERIA. SURGE OF NWLY FLOW THURSDAY EVENING WITH 20 TO
25 KT GUSTS OVER MOST OF THE WATERS (SCA FOR ALL BUT UPPER TIDAL
POTOMAC...PATAPSCO AND PATUXENT)...THEN ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH SUNSET AS GRADIENT SLACKENS. HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SLY FLOW BEGINNING SATURDAY
MORNING.

SOUTHERLY FLOW TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A
FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR EARLIEST MEASURABLE SNOW ALREADY PASSED A FEW WEEKS
AGO...BUT BELOW IS A LIST OF DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RECORDS
SPECIFIC TO THE DATE OF NOVEMBER 26TH. THE SNOWFALL REPORTED AT
DULLES SO FAR TODAY HAS BEEN 1.6 INCHES /AS OF 3 PM/ AND THIS
BREAKS THE OLD RECORD BELOW OF 1.1 INCHES SET IN 1978. DCA/BWI
RECORDS ARE SAFE.

DCA   2.2" (1898)
BWI   4.5" (1898)
IAD   1.1" (1978)

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ025>027-
     029-030-504.
WV...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ055-502-
     506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ530>534-536-537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ535-
     538-542.

&&

$$
UPDATE...HAS
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...KRW/DFH
MARINE...KRW/DFH
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KLWX 270803
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
303 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT. AN
UPPER- LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY
THIS MORNING. CLEARING OVERNIGHT CALM WINDS AND FRESH SNOWPACK HAS
LED TO FOG DEVELOPMENT. INTERSTATE 81 WILL BE IMPACTED IN
LOCATIONS. ICY SPOTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AS TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW
FREEZING THIS MORNING.

COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RACE NORTHEAST OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW HAS
LARGELY KICKED INTO PLACE ACROSS THE REGION EXCEPT FOR A FEW
PASSING FLURRIES/SPRINKLES OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT. FORCING WILL BE WEAK WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT
NONETHELESS...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS OVERNIGHT. DECENT SNOW PACK AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. SOME OF
THE FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE. WILL CONTINUE MENTION IN THE HWO.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING IN MOST PLACES EXCEPT THE
METRO CENTERS. THIS WILL LEAD TO REFREEZING CONCERNS ON SECONDARY
ROADWAYS OR UNTREATED SURFACES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. A STRAY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD...BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY AND
CHILLY WITH SOME SUNSHINE. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S AND
LOWER 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S IN CENTRAL
VIRGINIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST OVER THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY. NWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE UPSLOPE SNOW WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT INTO LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF AS
THE SATURATED LAYER DECREASES. SHOULD JUST BE WAVE CLOUDS EAST OF
THERE SINCE THE UPR TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY
EVENING. NWLY FLOW GUSTS PERIODICALLY TO 20 TO 25 MPH THURSDAY
NIGHT IN COLD AIR ADVECTION...THEN MIXES DOWN AGAIN ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY. GRADIENT SLACKENS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH CENTER CROSSES THE AREA WITH CLEAR AND
CALM AND MIN TEMPS BACK BELOW FREEZING. PLACES WITH A REMAINING
SNOWPACK OF MORE THAN A FEW INCHES (HIGHER ELEVATIONS) WILL SEE A
MARKED DROP IN TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLY INTO THE TEENS. LOW 30S
ALONG THE SHORE LINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND SETTING UP A SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL UNDER THIS
REGIME. A FRONT WILL BUMP INTO THIS HIGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND THEN
STALL NEAR THE AREA NEXT WEEK. IT LOOKS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN SHOWERS
ALONG THIS FRONT MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE BY TO THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT GETS IT
MAY NOT GET MUCH COOLER. MODELS DISAGREE ON THIS PLACEMENT SO
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL SITES OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY
FOG COULD DEVELOP ESPECIALLY WHERE SNOW PACK EXISTS. SOME OF THE
FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE.

AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY. VFR
CONDITIONS WITH NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THURSDAY.

NWLY FLOW GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS (VFR CONDS). HIGH OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CONTINUED
VFR.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE WEEKEND W/ WIND BECOMING S AROUND 10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE WINDS
DIMINISH BEHIND THE DEPARTING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA CRITERIA. SURGE OF NWLY FLOW THURSDAY EVENING WITH 20 TO
25 KT GUSTS OVER MOST OF THE WATERS (SCA FOR ALL BUT UPPER TIDAL
POTOMAC...PATAPSCO AND PATUXENT)...THEN ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH SUNSET AS GRADIENT SLACKENS. HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SLY FLOW BEGINNING SATURDAY
MORNING.

SOUTHERLY FLOW TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A
FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR EARLIEST MEASURABLE SNOW ALREADY PASSED A FEW WEEKS
AGO...BUT BELOW IS A LIST OF DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RECORDS
SPECIFIC TO THE DATE OF NOVEMBER 26TH. THE SNOWFALL REPORTED AT
DULLES SO FAR TODAY HAS BEEN 1.6 INCHES /AS OF 3 PM/ AND THIS
BREAKS THE OLD RECORD BELOW OF 1.1 INCHES SET IN 1978. DCA/BWI
RECORDS ARE SAFE.

DCA   2.2" (1898)
BWI   4.5" (1898)
IAD   1.1" (1978)

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ025>027-
     029-030-504.
WV...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ055-502-
     506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ530>534-536-537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ535-
     538-542.

&&

$$
UPDATE...HAS
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...KRW/DFH
MARINE...KRW/DFH
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270607
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
107 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE
AREA TONIGHT. A SECONDARY LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...AND SLIDES OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC LOW PRESSURE NOW CENTERED OFF CAPE COD
CONTINUING TO MOVE RAPIDLY NE. WV IMAG SHOW THE DRY SLOT MOVING
OFFSHORE WITH MORE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STARTING TO MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST. OVERALL THE ENTIRE AREA IS IN FOR A FEW HOURS OF
RATHER QUIET WEATHER. A FEW SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING NEAR
FREDERICKSBURG AND NEAR EMPORIA MOVING EAST. THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP
WAS STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NC AND EXTENDED BACK INTO
MIDDLE TENN. THIS PRECIP IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER WAVE
WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS VA AND NORTHERN NC EARLY THURSDAY. THE
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AND BEST LIFT SUGGESTS THE HIGHEST POPS WILL
BE FROM THE NC/VA BORDER NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL VA AND VA EASTERN
SHORE INCLUDING SOUTHEAST VA. P-TYPES COULD BE A LITTLE
TRICKY...BUT GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES EXPECT MOSTLY RAIN
WITH A LITTLE MIX OF SNOW. MID LEVELS ARE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
DENDRITIC GROWTH, BUT MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL MELT TO RAIN BEFORE
REACHING THE GROUND. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS
WHERE PRECIP RATES INCREASE. DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION DUE
TO THE LOW LEVELS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING AND MIX WITH RAIN.

SOME GUIDANCE HAS ACTUALLY WARMED TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO OVERNIGHT
AND HAVE ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS UP BASED ON THIS TREND, BUT
OVERALL LOW TO MID 30S STILL LOOKS GOOD. FOR THURSDAY MAINLY
CLOUDY IN THE MORNING WITH A FEW RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLY MIXED WITH
SOME SNOW/EARLY AFTN WITH TMPS IN THE M30S- TO AROUND 40 F...THEN
BCMG PT SUNNY LATE AFTN AS TMPS SLOWLY RISE INTO THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY A QUIET PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ESE FROM THE MID
MS VALLEY THU NIGHT AND BECOMES CENTERED ACRS THE AREA FRI/FRI
NIGHT. SFC HIGH THEN SHIFTS FARTHER SE AND OFF THE SE COAST BY
SAT. WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT...WITH SOME INCREASE
IN MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS FRI NIGHT/SAT (ESPECIALLY ACRS THE NORTHERN
1/2 OF THE CWA). THIS AS FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS AND A WARM FRONT
LIFTS N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW
AVG THU NIGHT/FRI... WITH LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S AND HIGHS
GENLY ONLY 40-45 F ON FRI. CHILLY AGAIN FRI NIGHT...BUT TEMPS
MODERATE A BIT ON SAT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SSW. STILL
A BIT BELOW AVG WITH HIGHS 50-55 F CENTRAL AND SOUTH AND IN THE
UPPER 40S NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT-SUN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
THRU THE REGION. SLY FLOW AND INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL
RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS SUN...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S. THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUN
NIGHT...CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA MON. FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED TO BE
DRY OVER THE REGION...EXCEPT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS AND ERN VA PIEDMONT...CLOSEST TO BEST MOISTURE. TEMPS
MON WARM INTO THE MID 60S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
MON NIGHT...LOCATING OVER NEW ENGLAND TUES AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES OVER THE LOCAL AREA...SETTING UP AN IN-SITU CAD WEDGE OVER
THE REGION...WITH NELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. HAVE INTRODUCED LIGHT OVERRUNNING
PRECIP MON NIGHT AND TUES. TUES HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S NW TO
MID 50S SE. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WEDS AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. HIGHS WEDS IN THE MID-UPPER
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR CIGS CONTINUE AT KSBY AND KECG EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THIS TREND
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TIL AROUND 13Z. ELSEWHERE...VFR OVERNIGHT.
NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO/THROUGH THE REGION AFTER 12Z WITH SOME
-RA POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCE WILL BE AT KRIC BETWEEN 12-15Z. MFVR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH ANY PCPN TODAY...AND POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS AT KRIC IF RAIN MIXES WITH SNOW.

OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY THIS AFTN/EVE WITH VFR AND DRY WX
INDICATED TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
W-NW WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING AND HAVE BEEN
ABLE TO CANCEL SCA FOR THE BAY. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE
COASTAL WATERS (6-9 FT NORTH AND 5-7 FT SOUTH)...BUT THEY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WILL MAINTAIN SCA
FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS THRU 7 AM...AND THE NORTHERN WATERS THRU
10 AM.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS THIS AFTN AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH NWLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT
OVER THE BAY AND AROUND 20 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
RESPOND...BUILDING TO 5-7 FT...HIGHEST 20 NM OUT. THEREAFTER...HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS FRI THRU THE WEEKEND...RESULTING
IN SUB SCA CONDITIONS. THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS SUN
NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ654-
     656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/JAO
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM/DAP
MARINE...JDM/SAM







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270607
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
107 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE
AREA TONIGHT. A SECONDARY LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...AND SLIDES OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC LOW PRESSURE NOW CENTERED OFF CAPE COD
CONTINUING TO MOVE RAPIDLY NE. WV IMAG SHOW THE DRY SLOT MOVING
OFFSHORE WITH MORE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STARTING TO MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST. OVERALL THE ENTIRE AREA IS IN FOR A FEW HOURS OF
RATHER QUIET WEATHER. A FEW SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING NEAR
FREDERICKSBURG AND NEAR EMPORIA MOVING EAST. THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP
WAS STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NC AND EXTENDED BACK INTO
MIDDLE TENN. THIS PRECIP IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER WAVE
WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS VA AND NORTHERN NC EARLY THURSDAY. THE
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AND BEST LIFT SUGGESTS THE HIGHEST POPS WILL
BE FROM THE NC/VA BORDER NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL VA AND VA EASTERN
SHORE INCLUDING SOUTHEAST VA. P-TYPES COULD BE A LITTLE
TRICKY...BUT GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES EXPECT MOSTLY RAIN
WITH A LITTLE MIX OF SNOW. MID LEVELS ARE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
DENDRITIC GROWTH, BUT MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL MELT TO RAIN BEFORE
REACHING THE GROUND. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS
WHERE PRECIP RATES INCREASE. DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION DUE
TO THE LOW LEVELS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING AND MIX WITH RAIN.

SOME GUIDANCE HAS ACTUALLY WARMED TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO OVERNIGHT
AND HAVE ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS UP BASED ON THIS TREND, BUT
OVERALL LOW TO MID 30S STILL LOOKS GOOD. FOR THURSDAY MAINLY
CLOUDY IN THE MORNING WITH A FEW RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLY MIXED WITH
SOME SNOW/EARLY AFTN WITH TMPS IN THE M30S- TO AROUND 40 F...THEN
BCMG PT SUNNY LATE AFTN AS TMPS SLOWLY RISE INTO THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY A QUIET PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ESE FROM THE MID
MS VALLEY THU NIGHT AND BECOMES CENTERED ACRS THE AREA FRI/FRI
NIGHT. SFC HIGH THEN SHIFTS FARTHER SE AND OFF THE SE COAST BY
SAT. WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT...WITH SOME INCREASE
IN MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS FRI NIGHT/SAT (ESPECIALLY ACRS THE NORTHERN
1/2 OF THE CWA). THIS AS FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS AND A WARM FRONT
LIFTS N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW
AVG THU NIGHT/FRI... WITH LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S AND HIGHS
GENLY ONLY 40-45 F ON FRI. CHILLY AGAIN FRI NIGHT...BUT TEMPS
MODERATE A BIT ON SAT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SSW. STILL
A BIT BELOW AVG WITH HIGHS 50-55 F CENTRAL AND SOUTH AND IN THE
UPPER 40S NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT-SUN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
THRU THE REGION. SLY FLOW AND INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL
RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS SUN...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S. THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUN
NIGHT...CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA MON. FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED TO BE
DRY OVER THE REGION...EXCEPT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS AND ERN VA PIEDMONT...CLOSEST TO BEST MOISTURE. TEMPS
MON WARM INTO THE MID 60S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
MON NIGHT...LOCATING OVER NEW ENGLAND TUES AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES OVER THE LOCAL AREA...SETTING UP AN IN-SITU CAD WEDGE OVER
THE REGION...WITH NELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. HAVE INTRODUCED LIGHT OVERRUNNING
PRECIP MON NIGHT AND TUES. TUES HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S NW TO
MID 50S SE. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WEDS AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. HIGHS WEDS IN THE MID-UPPER
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR CIGS CONTINUE AT KSBY AND KECG EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THIS TREND
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TIL AROUND 13Z. ELSEWHERE...VFR OVERNIGHT.
NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO/THROUGH THE REGION AFTER 12Z WITH SOME
-RA POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCE WILL BE AT KRIC BETWEEN 12-15Z. MFVR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH ANY PCPN TODAY...AND POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS AT KRIC IF RAIN MIXES WITH SNOW.

OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY THIS AFTN/EVE WITH VFR AND DRY WX
INDICATED TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
W-NW WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING AND HAVE BEEN
ABLE TO CANCEL SCA FOR THE BAY. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE
COASTAL WATERS (6-9 FT NORTH AND 5-7 FT SOUTH)...BUT THEY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WILL MAINTAIN SCA
FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS THRU 7 AM...AND THE NORTHERN WATERS THRU
10 AM.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS THIS AFTN AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH NWLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT
OVER THE BAY AND AROUND 20 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
RESPOND...BUILDING TO 5-7 FT...HIGHEST 20 NM OUT. THEREAFTER...HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS FRI THRU THE WEEKEND...RESULTING
IN SUB SCA CONDITIONS. THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS SUN
NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ654-
     656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/JAO
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM/DAP
MARINE...JDM/SAM








000
FXUS61 KRNK 270606
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
106 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE PRECIPITATION
TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM
OF SNOW WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND RAIN TO THE EAST. UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL THEN CONTINUE ALONG THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
RIDGE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...BRINGING
QUIET WEATHER TO THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BACK TO
THE FORECAST AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND HEAD INTO THE NEW
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 950 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

AN AREA OF MAINLY MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG SHORT-WAVE
DIGGING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH. PUSHED BACK THE ARRIVAL OF
PRECIP TO AROUND 2 AM IN THE WEST AND TRANSITING MAINLY THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH MID-MORNING. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY STILL GOES INTO EFFECT AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT MAY BE HARD TO
REACH THE 4-INCH AMOUNTS AT LEAST AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHERE
MOST PEOPLE LIVE...MORE LIKE 1 TO 2 INCHES SEEMS PROBABLE. TEMPS
WILL BE EXTREMELY MARGINAL FOR ACCUMULATING

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS HIGH WILL BRING US QUIET WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND
BEFORE IT SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST AND SLY RETURN FLOW SETS UP A
WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. MAIN THRUST OF ANY LIFT AND MOISTURE
CAPABLE OF SQUEEZING OUT PRECIPITATION REMAINS OFF TO OUR WEST AHEAD
OF NEXT WEAK APPROACHING FRONT. THIS SHOULD KEEP US DRY INTO THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER FLORIDA LIMITING
GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE FROM ENTERING THE REGION SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL ALSO ALLOW THE REGION TO WARM TO 10F ABOVE
NORMAL. MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT...A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL
TRY AND PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH A STRONG AND BROAD RIDGE ACROSS
THE SOUTH...EXPECTING LATER MODEL RUNS TO DELAY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
UNTIL SOMETIME TUESDAY. SINCE THE ECM/GFS HAS THIS FRONT ENTERING
THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS FOR
RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. ALSO HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS TUESDAY FOR
A POSSIBLE FRONTAL PASSAGE OR FOR THE FRONT STALLING IN THE REGION.
EITHER WAY AND/OR EITHER DAY...TEMPERATURES AND THICKNESSES ARE WARM
TO KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION FALLING AS RAIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVER NEW ENGLAND FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND REMAIN
IN THE AREA TROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. EVEN THOUGH THIS
WEDGE IS STRONG (1035MB)...MODELS REMAINING WARM AND CLOSE TO
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM EST THURSDAY...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER FAR
WESTERN VIRGINIA THIS MORNING...TRAVELING EAST. THE LOW IS BRINGING
WITH IT BANDS A LIGHT SNOW THAT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA ARE VARIABLE...
RANGING FROM IFR TO MOSTLY CLEAR. HOWEVER...PATCHY DENSE FOG IS
DEVELOPING WHERE CEILINGS SCATTER...MAKING MOST OF THE REGION LOW
MVFR/IFR AS A NET RESULT.

POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS
SNOW BANDS PASS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...CHANGING OVER TO RAIN IN
THE WARMER AIR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. ONCE THE LOW PASSES EAST
LATE THURSDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA...WITH WIND SPEEDS FROM THE WEST GUSTING 15KT TO 25KT...
TOPPING 30KT AT TIMES. CEILINGS WILL ALSO IMPROVE TO VFR FOR
ROA/LYH/DAN...HOWEVER THE TRANSITION TO VFR WILL BE MORE GRADUAL
FOR BLF/BCB/LWB...TAKING UNTIL LATE EVENING.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...RESULTING IN
VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION
ON MONDAY...BRINGING A RETURN OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS RANGED FROM ABOUT 0.50 TO 1.25
INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT WITH A FEW GAGES PICKING UP IN EXCESS
OF 1.50 INCHES MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NEW RIVER AND UPPER
ROANOKE AND DAN RIVER BASINS. THE LESSER AMOUNTS WERE GENERALLY
OBSERVED OVER THE WESTERN BASINS INCLUDING THE GREENBRIER AND
UPPER JAMES. RADAR PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES EXTREMELY CONTAMINATED
BY BRIGHT BAND EFFECTS. RUNOFF CAUSING SMALLER STREAMS TO SHOW
SOME NICE RISES BUT ALL WELL WITHIN BANKS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WAS MALFUNCTIONING
AGAIN. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER BUT THE REPAIR MAY NOT BE UNTIL
MONDAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLYH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STAFF WHEN THE
CONTROL TOWER IS OPEN...OTHERWISE THE VISIBILITY WILL BE MISSING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ007-009-
     015.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR WVZ508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS/PC
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...NF/PC
HYDROLOGY...PC
EQUIPMENT...AMS



000
FXUS61 KRNK 270606
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
106 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE PRECIPITATION
TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM
OF SNOW WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND RAIN TO THE EAST. UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL THEN CONTINUE ALONG THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
RIDGE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...BRINGING
QUIET WEATHER TO THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BACK TO
THE FORECAST AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND HEAD INTO THE NEW
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 950 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

AN AREA OF MAINLY MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG SHORT-WAVE
DIGGING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH. PUSHED BACK THE ARRIVAL OF
PRECIP TO AROUND 2 AM IN THE WEST AND TRANSITING MAINLY THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH MID-MORNING. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY STILL GOES INTO EFFECT AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT MAY BE HARD TO
REACH THE 4-INCH AMOUNTS AT LEAST AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHERE
MOST PEOPLE LIVE...MORE LIKE 1 TO 2 INCHES SEEMS PROBABLE. TEMPS
WILL BE EXTREMELY MARGINAL FOR ACCUMULATING

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS HIGH WILL BRING US QUIET WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND
BEFORE IT SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST AND SLY RETURN FLOW SETS UP A
WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. MAIN THRUST OF ANY LIFT AND MOISTURE
CAPABLE OF SQUEEZING OUT PRECIPITATION REMAINS OFF TO OUR WEST AHEAD
OF NEXT WEAK APPROACHING FRONT. THIS SHOULD KEEP US DRY INTO THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER FLORIDA LIMITING
GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE FROM ENTERING THE REGION SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL ALSO ALLOW THE REGION TO WARM TO 10F ABOVE
NORMAL. MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT...A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL
TRY AND PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH A STRONG AND BROAD RIDGE ACROSS
THE SOUTH...EXPECTING LATER MODEL RUNS TO DELAY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
UNTIL SOMETIME TUESDAY. SINCE THE ECM/GFS HAS THIS FRONT ENTERING
THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS FOR
RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. ALSO HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS TUESDAY FOR
A POSSIBLE FRONTAL PASSAGE OR FOR THE FRONT STALLING IN THE REGION.
EITHER WAY AND/OR EITHER DAY...TEMPERATURES AND THICKNESSES ARE WARM
TO KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION FALLING AS RAIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVER NEW ENGLAND FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND REMAIN
IN THE AREA TROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. EVEN THOUGH THIS
WEDGE IS STRONG (1035MB)...MODELS REMAINING WARM AND CLOSE TO
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM EST THURSDAY...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER FAR
WESTERN VIRGINIA THIS MORNING...TRAVELING EAST. THE LOW IS BRINGING
WITH IT BANDS A LIGHT SNOW THAT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA ARE VARIABLE...
RANGING FROM IFR TO MOSTLY CLEAR. HOWEVER...PATCHY DENSE FOG IS
DEVELOPING WHERE CEILINGS SCATTER...MAKING MOST OF THE REGION LOW
MVFR/IFR AS A NET RESULT.

POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS
SNOW BANDS PASS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...CHANGING OVER TO RAIN IN
THE WARMER AIR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. ONCE THE LOW PASSES EAST
LATE THURSDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA...WITH WIND SPEEDS FROM THE WEST GUSTING 15KT TO 25KT...
TOPPING 30KT AT TIMES. CEILINGS WILL ALSO IMPROVE TO VFR FOR
ROA/LYH/DAN...HOWEVER THE TRANSITION TO VFR WILL BE MORE GRADUAL
FOR BLF/BCB/LWB...TAKING UNTIL LATE EVENING.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...RESULTING IN
VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION
ON MONDAY...BRINGING A RETURN OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS RANGED FROM ABOUT 0.50 TO 1.25
INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT WITH A FEW GAGES PICKING UP IN EXCESS
OF 1.50 INCHES MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NEW RIVER AND UPPER
ROANOKE AND DAN RIVER BASINS. THE LESSER AMOUNTS WERE GENERALLY
OBSERVED OVER THE WESTERN BASINS INCLUDING THE GREENBRIER AND
UPPER JAMES. RADAR PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES EXTREMELY CONTAMINATED
BY BRIGHT BAND EFFECTS. RUNOFF CAUSING SMALLER STREAMS TO SHOW
SOME NICE RISES BUT ALL WELL WITHIN BANKS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WAS MALFUNCTIONING
AGAIN. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER BUT THE REPAIR MAY NOT BE UNTIL
MONDAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLYH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STAFF WHEN THE
CONTROL TOWER IS OPEN...OTHERWISE THE VISIBILITY WILL BE MISSING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ007-009-
     015.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR WVZ508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS/PC
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...NF/PC
HYDROLOGY...PC
EQUIPMENT...AMS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 270605
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
105 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE PRECIPITATION
TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM
OF SNOW WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND RAIN TO THE EAST. UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL THEN CONTINUE ALONG THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
RIDGE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...BRINGING
QUIET WEATHER TO THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BACK TO
THE FORECAST AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND HEAD INTO THE NEW
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 950 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

AN AREA OF MAINLY MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG SHORT-WAVE
DIGGING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH. PUSHED BACK THE ARRIVAL OF
PRECIP TO AROUND 2 AM IN THE WEST AND TRANSITING MAINLY THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH MID-MORNING. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY STILL GOES INTO EFFECT AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT MAY BE HARD TO
REACH THE 4-INCH AMOUNTS AT LEAST AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHERE
MOST PEOPLE LIVE...MORE LIKE 1 TO 2 INCHES SEEMS PROBABLE. TEMPS
WILL BE EXTREMELY MARGINAL FOR ACCUMULATING

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS HIGH WILL BRING US QUIET WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND
BEFORE IT SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST AND SLY RETURN FLOW SETS UP A
WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. MAIN THRUST OF ANY LIFT AND MOISTURE
CAPABLE OF SQUEEZING OUT PRECIPITATION REMAINS OFF TO OUR WEST AHEAD
OF NEXT WEAK APPROACHING FRONT. THIS SHOULD KEEP US DRY INTO THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER FLORIDA LIMITING
GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE FROM ENTERING THE REGION SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL ALSO ALLOW THE REGION TO WARM TO 10F ABOVE
NORMAL. MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT...A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL
TRY AND PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH A STRONG AND BROAD RIDGE ACROSS
THE SOUTH...EXPECTING LATER MODEL RUNS TO DELAY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
UNTIL SOMETIME TUESDAY. SINCE THE ECM/GFS HAS THIS FRONT ENTERING
THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS FOR
RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. ALSO HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS TUESDAY FOR
A POSSIBLE FRONTAL PASSAGE OR FOR THE FRONT STALLING IN THE REGION.
EITHER WAY AND/OR EITHER DAY...TEMPERATURES AND THICKNESSES ARE WARM
TO KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION FALLING AS RAIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVER NEW ENGLAND FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND REMAIN
IN THE AREA TROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. EVEN THOUGH THIS
WEDGE IS STRONG (1035MB)...MODELS REMAINING WARM AND CLOSE TO
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 655 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER FAR
WESTERN VIRGINIA THIS MORNING...TRAVELING EAST. THE LOW IS BRINGING
WITH IT BANDS A LIGHT SNOW THAT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA ARE VARIABLE...
RANGING FROM IFR TO MOSTLY CLEAR. HOWEVER...PATCHY DENSE FOG IS
DEVELOPING WHERE CEILINGS SCATTER...MAKING MOST OF THE REGION LOW
MVFR/IFR AS A NET RESULT.

POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS
SNOW BANDS PASS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...CHANGING OVER TO RAIN IN
THE WARMER AIR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. ONCE THE LOW PASSES EAST
LATE THURSDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA...WITH WIND SPEEDS FROM THE WEST GUSTING 15KT TO 25KT...
TOPPING 30KT AT TIMES. CEILINGS WILL ALSO IMPROVE TO VFR FOR
ROA/LYH/DAN...HOWEVER THE TRANSITION TO VFR WILL BE MORE GRADUAL
FOR BLF/BCB/LWB...TAKING UNTIL LATE EVENING.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...RESULTING IN
VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION
ON MONDAY...BRINGING A RETURN OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS RANGED FROM ABOUT 0.50 TO 1.25
INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT WITH A FEW GAGES PICKING UP IN EXCESS
OF 1.50 INCHES MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NEW RIVER AND UPPER
ROANOKE AND DAN RIVER BASINS. THE LESSER AMOUNTS WERE GENERALLY
OBSERVED OVER THE WESTERN BASINS INCLUDING THE GREENBRIER AND
UPPER JAMES. RADAR PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES EXTREMELY CONTAMINATED
BY BRIGHT BAND EFFECTS. RUNOFF CAUSING SMALLER STREAMS TO SHOW
SOME NICE RISES BUT ALL WELL WITHIN BANKS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WAS MALFUNCTIONING
AGAIN. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER BUT THE REPAIR MAY NOT BE UNTIL
MONDAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLYH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STAFF WHEN THE
CONTROL TOWER IS OPEN...OTHERWISE THE VISIBILITY WILL BE MISSING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ007-009-
     015.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR WVZ508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS/PC
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...NF/PC
HYDROLOGY...PC
EQUIPMENT...AMS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 270605
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
105 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE PRECIPITATION
TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM
OF SNOW WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND RAIN TO THE EAST. UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL THEN CONTINUE ALONG THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
RIDGE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...BRINGING
QUIET WEATHER TO THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BACK TO
THE FORECAST AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND HEAD INTO THE NEW
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 950 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

AN AREA OF MAINLY MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG SHORT-WAVE
DIGGING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH. PUSHED BACK THE ARRIVAL OF
PRECIP TO AROUND 2 AM IN THE WEST AND TRANSITING MAINLY THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH MID-MORNING. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY STILL GOES INTO EFFECT AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT MAY BE HARD TO
REACH THE 4-INCH AMOUNTS AT LEAST AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHERE
MOST PEOPLE LIVE...MORE LIKE 1 TO 2 INCHES SEEMS PROBABLE. TEMPS
WILL BE EXTREMELY MARGINAL FOR ACCUMULATING

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS HIGH WILL BRING US QUIET WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND
BEFORE IT SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST AND SLY RETURN FLOW SETS UP A
WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. MAIN THRUST OF ANY LIFT AND MOISTURE
CAPABLE OF SQUEEZING OUT PRECIPITATION REMAINS OFF TO OUR WEST AHEAD
OF NEXT WEAK APPROACHING FRONT. THIS SHOULD KEEP US DRY INTO THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER FLORIDA LIMITING
GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE FROM ENTERING THE REGION SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL ALSO ALLOW THE REGION TO WARM TO 10F ABOVE
NORMAL. MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT...A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL
TRY AND PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH A STRONG AND BROAD RIDGE ACROSS
THE SOUTH...EXPECTING LATER MODEL RUNS TO DELAY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
UNTIL SOMETIME TUESDAY. SINCE THE ECM/GFS HAS THIS FRONT ENTERING
THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS FOR
RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. ALSO HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS TUESDAY FOR
A POSSIBLE FRONTAL PASSAGE OR FOR THE FRONT STALLING IN THE REGION.
EITHER WAY AND/OR EITHER DAY...TEMPERATURES AND THICKNESSES ARE WARM
TO KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION FALLING AS RAIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVER NEW ENGLAND FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND REMAIN
IN THE AREA TROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. EVEN THOUGH THIS
WEDGE IS STRONG (1035MB)...MODELS REMAINING WARM AND CLOSE TO
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 655 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER FAR
WESTERN VIRGINIA THIS MORNING...TRAVELING EAST. THE LOW IS BRINGING
WITH IT BANDS A LIGHT SNOW THAT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA ARE VARIABLE...
RANGING FROM IFR TO MOSTLY CLEAR. HOWEVER...PATCHY DENSE FOG IS
DEVELOPING WHERE CEILINGS SCATTER...MAKING MOST OF THE REGION LOW
MVFR/IFR AS A NET RESULT.

POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS
SNOW BANDS PASS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...CHANGING OVER TO RAIN IN
THE WARMER AIR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. ONCE THE LOW PASSES EAST
LATE THURSDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA...WITH WIND SPEEDS FROM THE WEST GUSTING 15KT TO 25KT...
TOPPING 30KT AT TIMES. CEILINGS WILL ALSO IMPROVE TO VFR FOR
ROA/LYH/DAN...HOWEVER THE TRANSITION TO VFR WILL BE MORE GRADUAL
FOR BLF/BCB/LWB...TAKING UNTIL LATE EVENING.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...RESULTING IN
VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION
ON MONDAY...BRINGING A RETURN OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS RANGED FROM ABOUT 0.50 TO 1.25
INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT WITH A FEW GAGES PICKING UP IN EXCESS
OF 1.50 INCHES MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NEW RIVER AND UPPER
ROANOKE AND DAN RIVER BASINS. THE LESSER AMOUNTS WERE GENERALLY
OBSERVED OVER THE WESTERN BASINS INCLUDING THE GREENBRIER AND
UPPER JAMES. RADAR PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES EXTREMELY CONTAMINATED
BY BRIGHT BAND EFFECTS. RUNOFF CAUSING SMALLER STREAMS TO SHOW
SOME NICE RISES BUT ALL WELL WITHIN BANKS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WAS MALFUNCTIONING
AGAIN. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER BUT THE REPAIR MAY NOT BE UNTIL
MONDAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLYH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STAFF WHEN THE
CONTROL TOWER IS OPEN...OTHERWISE THE VISIBILITY WILL BE MISSING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ007-009-
     015.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR WVZ508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS/PC
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...NF/PC
HYDROLOGY...PC
EQUIPMENT...AMS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 270605
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
105 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE PRECIPITATION
TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM
OF SNOW WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND RAIN TO THE EAST. UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL THEN CONTINUE ALONG THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
RIDGE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...BRINGING
QUIET WEATHER TO THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BACK TO
THE FORECAST AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND HEAD INTO THE NEW
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 950 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

AN AREA OF MAINLY MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG SHORT-WAVE
DIGGING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH. PUSHED BACK THE ARRIVAL OF
PRECIP TO AROUND 2 AM IN THE WEST AND TRANSITING MAINLY THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH MID-MORNING. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY STILL GOES INTO EFFECT AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT MAY BE HARD TO
REACH THE 4-INCH AMOUNTS AT LEAST AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHERE
MOST PEOPLE LIVE...MORE LIKE 1 TO 2 INCHES SEEMS PROBABLE. TEMPS
WILL BE EXTREMELY MARGINAL FOR ACCUMULATING

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS HIGH WILL BRING US QUIET WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND
BEFORE IT SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST AND SLY RETURN FLOW SETS UP A
WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. MAIN THRUST OF ANY LIFT AND MOISTURE
CAPABLE OF SQUEEZING OUT PRECIPITATION REMAINS OFF TO OUR WEST AHEAD
OF NEXT WEAK APPROACHING FRONT. THIS SHOULD KEEP US DRY INTO THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER FLORIDA LIMITING
GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE FROM ENTERING THE REGION SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL ALSO ALLOW THE REGION TO WARM TO 10F ABOVE
NORMAL. MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT...A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL
TRY AND PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH A STRONG AND BROAD RIDGE ACROSS
THE SOUTH...EXPECTING LATER MODEL RUNS TO DELAY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
UNTIL SOMETIME TUESDAY. SINCE THE ECM/GFS HAS THIS FRONT ENTERING
THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS FOR
RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. ALSO HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS TUESDAY FOR
A POSSIBLE FRONTAL PASSAGE OR FOR THE FRONT STALLING IN THE REGION.
EITHER WAY AND/OR EITHER DAY...TEMPERATURES AND THICKNESSES ARE WARM
TO KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION FALLING AS RAIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVER NEW ENGLAND FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND REMAIN
IN THE AREA TROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. EVEN THOUGH THIS
WEDGE IS STRONG (1035MB)...MODELS REMAINING WARM AND CLOSE TO
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 655 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER FAR
WESTERN VIRGINIA THIS MORNING...TRAVELING EAST. THE LOW IS BRINGING
WITH IT BANDS A LIGHT SNOW THAT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA ARE VARIABLE...
RANGING FROM IFR TO MOSTLY CLEAR. HOWEVER...PATCHY DENSE FOG IS
DEVELOPING WHERE CEILINGS SCATTER...MAKING MOST OF THE REGION LOW
MVFR/IFR AS A NET RESULT.

POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS
SNOW BANDS PASS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...CHANGING OVER TO RAIN IN
THE WARMER AIR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. ONCE THE LOW PASSES EAST
LATE THURSDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA...WITH WIND SPEEDS FROM THE WEST GUSTING 15KT TO 25KT...
TOPPING 30KT AT TIMES. CEILINGS WILL ALSO IMPROVE TO VFR FOR
ROA/LYH/DAN...HOWEVER THE TRANSITION TO VFR WILL BE MORE GRADUAL
FOR BLF/BCB/LWB...TAKING UNTIL LATE EVENING.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...RESULTING IN
VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION
ON MONDAY...BRINGING A RETURN OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS RANGED FROM ABOUT 0.50 TO 1.25
INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT WITH A FEW GAGES PICKING UP IN EXCESS
OF 1.50 INCHES MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NEW RIVER AND UPPER
ROANOKE AND DAN RIVER BASINS. THE LESSER AMOUNTS WERE GENERALLY
OBSERVED OVER THE WESTERN BASINS INCLUDING THE GREENBRIER AND
UPPER JAMES. RADAR PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES EXTREMELY CONTAMINATED
BY BRIGHT BAND EFFECTS. RUNOFF CAUSING SMALLER STREAMS TO SHOW
SOME NICE RISES BUT ALL WELL WITHIN BANKS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WAS MALFUNCTIONING
AGAIN. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER BUT THE REPAIR MAY NOT BE UNTIL
MONDAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLYH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STAFF WHEN THE
CONTROL TOWER IS OPEN...OTHERWISE THE VISIBILITY WILL BE MISSING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ007-009-
     015.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR WVZ508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS/PC
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...NF/PC
HYDROLOGY...PC
EQUIPMENT...AMS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 270605
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
105 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE PRECIPITATION
TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM
OF SNOW WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND RAIN TO THE EAST. UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL THEN CONTINUE ALONG THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
RIDGE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...BRINGING
QUIET WEATHER TO THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BACK TO
THE FORECAST AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND HEAD INTO THE NEW
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 950 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

AN AREA OF MAINLY MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG SHORT-WAVE
DIGGING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH. PUSHED BACK THE ARRIVAL OF
PRECIP TO AROUND 2 AM IN THE WEST AND TRANSITING MAINLY THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH MID-MORNING. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY STILL GOES INTO EFFECT AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT MAY BE HARD TO
REACH THE 4-INCH AMOUNTS AT LEAST AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHERE
MOST PEOPLE LIVE...MORE LIKE 1 TO 2 INCHES SEEMS PROBABLE. TEMPS
WILL BE EXTREMELY MARGINAL FOR ACCUMULATING

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS HIGH WILL BRING US QUIET WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND
BEFORE IT SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST AND SLY RETURN FLOW SETS UP A
WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. MAIN THRUST OF ANY LIFT AND MOISTURE
CAPABLE OF SQUEEZING OUT PRECIPITATION REMAINS OFF TO OUR WEST AHEAD
OF NEXT WEAK APPROACHING FRONT. THIS SHOULD KEEP US DRY INTO THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER FLORIDA LIMITING
GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE FROM ENTERING THE REGION SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL ALSO ALLOW THE REGION TO WARM TO 10F ABOVE
NORMAL. MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT...A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL
TRY AND PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH A STRONG AND BROAD RIDGE ACROSS
THE SOUTH...EXPECTING LATER MODEL RUNS TO DELAY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
UNTIL SOMETIME TUESDAY. SINCE THE ECM/GFS HAS THIS FRONT ENTERING
THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS FOR
RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. ALSO HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS TUESDAY FOR
A POSSIBLE FRONTAL PASSAGE OR FOR THE FRONT STALLING IN THE REGION.
EITHER WAY AND/OR EITHER DAY...TEMPERATURES AND THICKNESSES ARE WARM
TO KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION FALLING AS RAIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVER NEW ENGLAND FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND REMAIN
IN THE AREA TROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. EVEN THOUGH THIS
WEDGE IS STRONG (1035MB)...MODELS REMAINING WARM AND CLOSE TO
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 655 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER FAR
WESTERN VIRGINIA THIS MORNING...TRAVELING EAST. THE LOW IS BRINGING
WITH IT BANDS A LIGHT SNOW THAT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA ARE VARIABLE...
RANGING FROM IFR TO MOSTLY CLEAR. HOWEVER...PATCHY DENSE FOG IS
DEVELOPING WHERE CEILINGS SCATTER...MAKING MOST OF THE REGION LOW
MVFR/IFR AS A NET RESULT.

POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS
SNOW BANDS PASS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...CHANGING OVER TO RAIN IN
THE WARMER AIR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. ONCE THE LOW PASSES EAST
LATE THURSDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA...WITH WIND SPEEDS FROM THE WEST GUSTING 15KT TO 25KT...
TOPPING 30KT AT TIMES. CEILINGS WILL ALSO IMPROVE TO VFR FOR
ROA/LYH/DAN...HOWEVER THE TRANSITION TO VFR WILL BE MORE GRADUAL
FOR BLF/BCB/LWB...TAKING UNTIL LATE EVENING.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...RESULTING IN
VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION
ON MONDAY...BRINGING A RETURN OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS RANGED FROM ABOUT 0.50 TO 1.25
INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT WITH A FEW GAGES PICKING UP IN EXCESS
OF 1.50 INCHES MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NEW RIVER AND UPPER
ROANOKE AND DAN RIVER BASINS. THE LESSER AMOUNTS WERE GENERALLY
OBSERVED OVER THE WESTERN BASINS INCLUDING THE GREENBRIER AND
UPPER JAMES. RADAR PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES EXTREMELY CONTAMINATED
BY BRIGHT BAND EFFECTS. RUNOFF CAUSING SMALLER STREAMS TO SHOW
SOME NICE RISES BUT ALL WELL WITHIN BANKS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WAS MALFUNCTIONING
AGAIN. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER BUT THE REPAIR MAY NOT BE UNTIL
MONDAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLYH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STAFF WHEN THE
CONTROL TOWER IS OPEN...OTHERWISE THE VISIBILITY WILL BE MISSING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ007-009-
     015.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR WVZ508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS/PC
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...NF/PC
HYDROLOGY...PC
EQUIPMENT...AMS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 270300
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1000 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE PRECIPITATION
TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM
OF SNOW WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND RAIN TO THE EAST. UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL THEN CONTINUE ALONG THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
RIDGE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...BRINGING
QUIET WEATHER TO THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BACK TO
THE FORECAST AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND HEAD INTO THE NEW
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 950 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

AN AREA OF MAINLY MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG SHORT-WAVE
DIGGING THROUGHT THE UPPER TROUGH. PUSHED BACK THE ARRIVAL OF
PRECIP TO AROUND 2 AM IN THE WEST AND TRANSITING MAINLY THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH MID-MORNING. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY STILL GOES INTO EFFECT AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT MAY BE HARD TO
REACH THE 4-INCH ANOUNTS AT LEAST AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHERE
MOST PEOPLE LIVE...MORE LIKE 1 TO 2 INCHES SEEMS PROBABLE. TEMPS
WILL BE EXTREMELY MARGINAL FOR ACCUMULATING

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS HIGH WILL BRING US QUIET WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND
BEFORE IT SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST AND SLY RETURN FLOW SETS UP A
WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. MAIN THRUST OF ANY LIFT AND MOISTURE
CAPABLE OF SQUEEZING OUT PRECIPITATION REMAINS OFF TO OUR WEST AHEAD
OF NEXT WEAK APPROACHING FRONT. THIS SHOULD KEEP US DRY INTO THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER FLORIDA LIMITING
GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE FROM ENTERING THE REGION SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL ALSO ALLOW THE REGION TO WARM TO 10F ABOVE
NORMAL. MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT...A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL
TRY AND PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH A STRONG AND BROAD RIDGE ACROSS
THE SOUTH...EXPECTING LATER MODEL RUNS TO DELAY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
UNTIL SOMETIME TUESDAY. SINCE THE ECM/GFS HAS THIS FRONT ENTERING
THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS FOR
RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. ALSO HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS TUESDAY FOR
A POSSIBLE FRONTAL PASSAGE OR FOR THE FRONT STALLING IN THE REGION.
EITHER WAY AND/OR EITHER DAY...TEMPERATURES AND THICKNESSES ARE WARM
TO KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION FALLING AS RAIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVER NEW ENGLAND FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND REMAIN
IN THE AREA TROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. EVEN THOUGH THIS
WEDGE IS STRONG (1035MB)...MODELS REMAINING WARM AND CLOSE TO
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 655 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

VARIABLE BUT GENERALLY POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH
MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND SOME IFR FOG IN THE WEST. RESTRICTIONS WILL
LOWER OVERNIGHT AS A CLIPPER MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AFTER 06Z THU FOR
BLF/LWB/BCB...MVFR AT ROA/LYH/DAN MORE TOWARDS SUNRISE. THIS
CLIPPER IS ALSO A FAST MOVER AND CONDITIONS LIKELY TO IMPROVE
DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE CLIPPER WILL
BECOME GUSTY...UP TO 30KTS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE AFTERNOON.

ALSO A CONCERN BETWEEN SYSTEMS ARE AREAS OF FOG...POSSIBLY BECOMING
DENSE AS WARM AIR GLIDES OVER COLD WET GROUND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS RANGED FROM ABOUT 0.50 TO 1.25
INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT WITH A FEW GAGES PICKING UP IN EXCESS
OF 1.50 INCHES MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NEW RIVER AND UPPER
ROANOKE AND DAN RIVER BASINS. THE LESSER AMOUNTS WERE GENERALLY
OBSERVED OVER THE WESTERN BASINS INCLUDING THE GREENBRIER AND
UPPER JAMES. RADAR PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES EXTREMELY CONTAMINATED
BY BRIGHT BAND EFFECTS. RUNOFF CAUSING SMALLER STREAMS TO SHOW
SOME NICE RISES BUT ALL WELL WITHIN BANKS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WAS MALFUNCTIONING
AGAIN. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER BUT THE REPAIR MAY NOT BE UNTIL
MONDAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLYH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STAFF WHEN THE
CONTROL TOWER IS OPEN...OTHERWISE THE VISIBILITY WILL BE MISSING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR VAZ007-009-
     015.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS/PC
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...PC/RCS
HYDROLOGY...PC
EQUIPMENT...AMS



000
FXUS61 KLWX 270235 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
935 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT. AN
UPPER- LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RACE NORTHEAST OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW HAS
LARGELY KICKED INTO PLACE ACROSS THE REGION EXCEPT FOR A FEW
PASSING FLURRIES/SPRINKLES OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT. FORCING WILL BE WEAK WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT
NONETHELESS...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS OVERNIGHT. DECENT SNOW PACK AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. SOME OF
THE FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE. WILL CONTINUE MENTION IN THE HWO.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING IN MOST PLACES EXCEPT THE
METRO CENTERS. THIS WILL LEAD TO REFREEZING CONCERNS ON SECONDARY
ROADWAYS OR UNTREATED SURFACES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. A STRAY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD...BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY AND
CHILLY WITH SOME SUNSHINE. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S AND
LOWER 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S IN CENTRAL
VIRGINIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST OVER THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY. NWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE UPSLOPE SNOW WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT INTO LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF AS
THE SATURATED LAYER DECREASES. SHOULD JUST BE WAVE CLOUDS EAST OF
THERE SINCE THE UPR TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY
EVENING. NWLY FLOW GUSTS PERIODICALLY TO 20 TO 25 MPH THURSDAY
NIGHT IN COLD AIR ADVECTION...THEN MIXES DOWN AGAIN ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY. GRADIENT SLACKENS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH CENTER CROSSES THE AREA WITH CLEAR AND
CALM AND MIN TEMPS BACK BELOW FREEZING. PLACES WITH A REMAINING
SNOWPACK OF MORE THAN A FEW INCHES (HIGHER ELEVATIONS) WILL SEE A
MARKED DROP IN TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLY INTO THE TEENS. LOW 30S
ALONG THE SHORE LINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND SETTING UP A SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL UNDER THIS
REGIME. A FRONT WILL BUMP INTO THIS HIGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND THEN
STALL NEAR THE AREA NEXT WEEK. IT LOOKS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN SHOWERS
ALONG THIS FRONT MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE BY TO THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT GETS IT
MAY NOT GET MUCH COOLER. MODELS DISAGREE ON THIS PLACEMENT SO
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL SITES OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY
FOG COULD DEVELOP ESPECIALLY WHERE SNOW PACK EXISTS. SOME OF THE
FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE.

AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY. VFR
CONDITIONS WITH NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THURSDAY.

NWLY FLOW GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS (VFR CONDS). HIGH OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CONTINUED
VFR.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE WEEKEND W/ WIND BECOMING S AROUND 10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE WINDS
DIMINISH BEHIND THE DEPARTING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA CRITERIA. SURGE OF NWLY FLOW THURSDAY EVENING WITH 20 TO
25 KT GUSTS OVER MOST OF THE WATERS (SCA FOR ALL BUT UPPER TIDAL
POTOMAC...PATAPSCO AND PATUXENT)...THEN ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH SUNSET AS GRADIENT SLACKENS. HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SLY FLOW BEGINNING SATURDAY
MORNING.

SOUTHERLY FLOW TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A
FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR EARLIEST MEASURABLE SNOW ALREADY PASSED A FEW WEEKS
AGO...BUT BELOW IS A LIST OF DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RECORDS
SPECIFIC TO THE DATE OF NOVEMBER 26TH. THE SNOWFALL REPORTED AT
DULLES SO FAR TODAY HAS BEEN 1.6 INCHES /AS OF 3 PM/ AND THIS
BREAKS THE OLD RECORD BELOW OF 1.1 INCHES SET IN 1978. DCA/BWI
RECORDS ARE SAFE.

DCA   2.2" (1898)
BWI   4.5" (1898)
IAD   1.1" (1978)

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ530>534-
     536>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THURSDAY TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-536-537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ535-
     538-542.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...KRW/DFH
MARINE...KRW/DFH
CLIMATE...DFH/KRW








000
FXUS61 KLWX 270235 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
935 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT. AN
UPPER- LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RACE NORTHEAST OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW HAS
LARGELY KICKED INTO PLACE ACROSS THE REGION EXCEPT FOR A FEW
PASSING FLURRIES/SPRINKLES OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT. FORCING WILL BE WEAK WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT
NONETHELESS...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS OVERNIGHT. DECENT SNOW PACK AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. SOME OF
THE FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE. WILL CONTINUE MENTION IN THE HWO.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING IN MOST PLACES EXCEPT THE
METRO CENTERS. THIS WILL LEAD TO REFREEZING CONCERNS ON SECONDARY
ROADWAYS OR UNTREATED SURFACES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. A STRAY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD...BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY AND
CHILLY WITH SOME SUNSHINE. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S AND
LOWER 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S IN CENTRAL
VIRGINIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST OVER THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY. NWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE UPSLOPE SNOW WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT INTO LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF AS
THE SATURATED LAYER DECREASES. SHOULD JUST BE WAVE CLOUDS EAST OF
THERE SINCE THE UPR TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY
EVENING. NWLY FLOW GUSTS PERIODICALLY TO 20 TO 25 MPH THURSDAY
NIGHT IN COLD AIR ADVECTION...THEN MIXES DOWN AGAIN ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY. GRADIENT SLACKENS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH CENTER CROSSES THE AREA WITH CLEAR AND
CALM AND MIN TEMPS BACK BELOW FREEZING. PLACES WITH A REMAINING
SNOWPACK OF MORE THAN A FEW INCHES (HIGHER ELEVATIONS) WILL SEE A
MARKED DROP IN TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLY INTO THE TEENS. LOW 30S
ALONG THE SHORE LINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND SETTING UP A SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL UNDER THIS
REGIME. A FRONT WILL BUMP INTO THIS HIGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND THEN
STALL NEAR THE AREA NEXT WEEK. IT LOOKS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN SHOWERS
ALONG THIS FRONT MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE BY TO THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT GETS IT
MAY NOT GET MUCH COOLER. MODELS DISAGREE ON THIS PLACEMENT SO
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL SITES OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY
FOG COULD DEVELOP ESPECIALLY WHERE SNOW PACK EXISTS. SOME OF THE
FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE.

AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY. VFR
CONDITIONS WITH NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THURSDAY.

NWLY FLOW GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS (VFR CONDS). HIGH OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CONTINUED
VFR.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE WEEKEND W/ WIND BECOMING S AROUND 10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE WINDS
DIMINISH BEHIND THE DEPARTING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA CRITERIA. SURGE OF NWLY FLOW THURSDAY EVENING WITH 20 TO
25 KT GUSTS OVER MOST OF THE WATERS (SCA FOR ALL BUT UPPER TIDAL
POTOMAC...PATAPSCO AND PATUXENT)...THEN ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH SUNSET AS GRADIENT SLACKENS. HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SLY FLOW BEGINNING SATURDAY
MORNING.

SOUTHERLY FLOW TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A
FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR EARLIEST MEASURABLE SNOW ALREADY PASSED A FEW WEEKS
AGO...BUT BELOW IS A LIST OF DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RECORDS
SPECIFIC TO THE DATE OF NOVEMBER 26TH. THE SNOWFALL REPORTED AT
DULLES SO FAR TODAY HAS BEEN 1.6 INCHES /AS OF 3 PM/ AND THIS
BREAKS THE OLD RECORD BELOW OF 1.1 INCHES SET IN 1978. DCA/BWI
RECORDS ARE SAFE.

DCA   2.2" (1898)
BWI   4.5" (1898)
IAD   1.1" (1978)

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ530>534-
     536>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THURSDAY TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-536-537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ535-
     538-542.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...KRW/DFH
MARINE...KRW/DFH
CLIMATE...DFH/KRW







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270228
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
928 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE
AREA TONIGHT. A SECONDARY LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...AND SLIDES OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC LOW PRESSURE NOW CENTERED OFF CAPE COD
CONTINUING TO MOVE RAPIDLY NE. WV IMAG SHOW THE DRY SLOT MOVING
OFFSHORE WITH MORE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STARTING TO MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST. OVERALL THE ENTIRE AREA IS IN FOR A FEW HOURS OF
RATHER QUIET WEATHER. A FEW SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING NEAR
FREDERICKSBURG AND NEAR EMPORIA MOVING EAST. THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP
WAS STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NC AND EXTENDED BACK INTO
MIDDLE TENN. THIS PRECIP IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER WAVE
WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS VA AND NORTHERN NC EARLY THURSDAY. THE
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AND BEST LIFT SUGGESTS THE HIGHEST POPS WILL
BE FROM THE NC/VA BORDER NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL VA AND VA EASTERN
SHORE INCLUDING SOUTHEAST VA. P-TYPES COULD BE A LITTLE
TRICKY...BUT GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES EXPECT MOSTLY RAIN
WITH A LITTLE MIX OF SNOW. MID LEVELS ARE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
DENDRITIC GROWTH, BUT MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL MELT TO RAIN BEFORE
REACHING THE GROUND. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS
WHERE PRECIP RATES INCREASE. DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION DUE
TO THE LOW LEVELS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING AND MIX WITH RAIN.

SOME GUIDANCE HAS ACTUALLY WARMED TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO OVERNIGHT
AND HAVE ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS UP BASED ON THIS TREND, BUT
OVERALL LOW TO MID 30S STILL LOOKS GOOD. FOR THURSDAY MAINLY
CLOUDY IN THE MORNING WITH A FEW RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLY MIXED WITH
SOME SNOW/EARLY AFTN WITH TMPS IN THE M30S- TO AROUND 40 F...THEN
BCMG PT SUNNY LATE AFTN AS TMPS SLOWLY RISE INTO THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY A QUIET PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ESE FROM THE MID
MS VALLEY THU NIGHT AND BECOMES CENTERED ACRS THE AREA FRI/FRI
NIGHT. SFC HIGH THEN SHIFTS FARTHER SE AND OFF THE SE COAST BY
SAT. WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT...WITH SOME INCREASE
IN MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS FRI NIGHT/SAT (ESPECIALLY ACRS THE NORTHERN
1/2 OF THE CWA). THIS AS FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS AND A WARM FRONT
LIFTS N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW
AVG THU NIGHT/FRI... WITH LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S AND HIGHS
GENLY ONLY 40-45 F ON FRI. CHILLY AGAIN FRI NIGHT...BUT TEMPS
MODERATE A BIT ON SAT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SSW. STILL
A BIT BELOW AVG WITH HIGHS 50-55 F CENTRAL AND SOUTH AND IN THE
UPPER 40S NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT-SUN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
THRU THE REGION. SLY FLOW AND INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL
RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS SUN...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S. THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUN
NIGHT...CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA MON. FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED TO BE
DRY OVER THE REGION...EXCEPT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS AND ERN VA PIEDMONT...CLOSEST TO BEST MOISTURE. TEMPS
MON WARM INTO THE MID 60S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
MON NIGHT...LOCATING OVER NEW ENGLAND TUES AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES OVER THE LOCAL AREA...SETTING UP AN IN-SITU CAD WEDGE OVER
THE REGION...WITH NELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. HAVE INTRODUCED LIGHT OVERRUNNING
PRECIP MON NIGHT AND TUES. TUES HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S NW TO
MID 50S SE. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WEDS AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. HIGHS WEDS IN THE MID-UPPER
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO QUICKLY MOVE NE TONIGHT...CURRENTLY
POSITIONED OFF THE NJ COAST. CONDS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AS WINDS
BACK TO THE N/NW...WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS/SPRINKLES REMAINING
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AKQ CWA. WENT CLOSE TO THE NAM MOS
FOR CIGS OVERNIGHT MAINTAINING GENERALLY MVFR CIGS. WINDS WILL
RELAX OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER UP THE NORTHEAST COAST.

A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE LGT
PCPN RIC/PHF AND ORF AFT 12/14Z WHERE IT IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR.
MVFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN IS EXPECTED. RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW AT
TIMES WHICH COULD RESULT IN BRIEF IFR VIS...ESPECIALLY AT RIC.

OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS IMPROVE THURSDAY AFTN WITH VFR AND DRY WX
INDICATED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OFF THE NJ COAST THIS EVENING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. PRESSURE GRADIENT PRODUCED
LOW LEVEL WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KT OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTN...WITH
MUCH OF THIS MOMENTUM REACHING THE WATERS. WINDS HAVE BACKED TO THE
NW...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS STILL OCCURRING OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS/MOUTH OF THE BAY. OBSERVED GUSTS OVER ALL OTHER WATERS RANGE
FROM 20-25 KT. WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW...HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND THE GALE WARNINGS THRU 10 PM. SEAS
REMAIN HIGH...AVERAGING 8-10 FT. WAVES AVG 4 TO 6 FT...HIGHEST IN
THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN SLIGHTLY AS
IT DEPARTS THE COAST THIS EVENING. WINDS BACK TO THE NW AND
DECREASE AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES. GALE WARNINGS WILL BE REPLACED
BY SCA HEADLINES...LIKELY RUNNING THRU MIDNIGHT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE
THRU THE OVERNIGHT...FALLING BELOW 5 FT FIRST IN THE SRN WATERS BY
EARLY THURS MORNING AND IN THE NRN WATERS THURS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE WATERS THURS MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
IS POSSIBLE THURS NIGHT WITH NWLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT
OVER THE BAY AND AROUND 20 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
RESPOND...BUILDING TO 4-6 FT...HIGHEST 20 NM OUT.
THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS FRI THRU THE
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN SUB SCA CONDITIONS. THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES THE WATERS SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES REMAIN 1.5 TO 2 FT OVER THE LOWER BAY THIS
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...DEPARTURES GENERALLY AOB 1 FT. WINDS WILL
BACK AROUND TO THE NW AND DECREASE THRU EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL
ALLOW DEPARTURES TO DROP OFF. ADDITIONAL HEADLINES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED ATTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ634-650-652-
     654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/JAO
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...JDM/SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270228
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
928 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE
AREA TONIGHT. A SECONDARY LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...AND SLIDES OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC LOW PRESSURE NOW CENTERED OFF CAPE COD
CONTINUING TO MOVE RAPIDLY NE. WV IMAG SHOW THE DRY SLOT MOVING
OFFSHORE WITH MORE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STARTING TO MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST. OVERALL THE ENTIRE AREA IS IN FOR A FEW HOURS OF
RATHER QUIET WEATHER. A FEW SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING NEAR
FREDERICKSBURG AND NEAR EMPORIA MOVING EAST. THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP
WAS STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NC AND EXTENDED BACK INTO
MIDDLE TENN. THIS PRECIP IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER WAVE
WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS VA AND NORTHERN NC EARLY THURSDAY. THE
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AND BEST LIFT SUGGESTS THE HIGHEST POPS WILL
BE FROM THE NC/VA BORDER NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL VA AND VA EASTERN
SHORE INCLUDING SOUTHEAST VA. P-TYPES COULD BE A LITTLE
TRICKY...BUT GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES EXPECT MOSTLY RAIN
WITH A LITTLE MIX OF SNOW. MID LEVELS ARE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
DENDRITIC GROWTH, BUT MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL MELT TO RAIN BEFORE
REACHING THE GROUND. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS
WHERE PRECIP RATES INCREASE. DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION DUE
TO THE LOW LEVELS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING AND MIX WITH RAIN.

SOME GUIDANCE HAS ACTUALLY WARMED TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO OVERNIGHT
AND HAVE ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS UP BASED ON THIS TREND, BUT
OVERALL LOW TO MID 30S STILL LOOKS GOOD. FOR THURSDAY MAINLY
CLOUDY IN THE MORNING WITH A FEW RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLY MIXED WITH
SOME SNOW/EARLY AFTN WITH TMPS IN THE M30S- TO AROUND 40 F...THEN
BCMG PT SUNNY LATE AFTN AS TMPS SLOWLY RISE INTO THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY A QUIET PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ESE FROM THE MID
MS VALLEY THU NIGHT AND BECOMES CENTERED ACRS THE AREA FRI/FRI
NIGHT. SFC HIGH THEN SHIFTS FARTHER SE AND OFF THE SE COAST BY
SAT. WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT...WITH SOME INCREASE
IN MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS FRI NIGHT/SAT (ESPECIALLY ACRS THE NORTHERN
1/2 OF THE CWA). THIS AS FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS AND A WARM FRONT
LIFTS N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW
AVG THU NIGHT/FRI... WITH LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S AND HIGHS
GENLY ONLY 40-45 F ON FRI. CHILLY AGAIN FRI NIGHT...BUT TEMPS
MODERATE A BIT ON SAT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SSW. STILL
A BIT BELOW AVG WITH HIGHS 50-55 F CENTRAL AND SOUTH AND IN THE
UPPER 40S NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT-SUN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
THRU THE REGION. SLY FLOW AND INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL
RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS SUN...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S. THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUN
NIGHT...CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA MON. FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED TO BE
DRY OVER THE REGION...EXCEPT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS AND ERN VA PIEDMONT...CLOSEST TO BEST MOISTURE. TEMPS
MON WARM INTO THE MID 60S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
MON NIGHT...LOCATING OVER NEW ENGLAND TUES AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES OVER THE LOCAL AREA...SETTING UP AN IN-SITU CAD WEDGE OVER
THE REGION...WITH NELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. HAVE INTRODUCED LIGHT OVERRUNNING
PRECIP MON NIGHT AND TUES. TUES HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S NW TO
MID 50S SE. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WEDS AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. HIGHS WEDS IN THE MID-UPPER
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO QUICKLY MOVE NE TONIGHT...CURRENTLY
POSITIONED OFF THE NJ COAST. CONDS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AS WINDS
BACK TO THE N/NW...WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS/SPRINKLES REMAINING
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AKQ CWA. WENT CLOSE TO THE NAM MOS
FOR CIGS OVERNIGHT MAINTAINING GENERALLY MVFR CIGS. WINDS WILL
RELAX OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER UP THE NORTHEAST COAST.

A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE LGT
PCPN RIC/PHF AND ORF AFT 12/14Z WHERE IT IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR.
MVFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN IS EXPECTED. RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW AT
TIMES WHICH COULD RESULT IN BRIEF IFR VIS...ESPECIALLY AT RIC.

OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS IMPROVE THURSDAY AFTN WITH VFR AND DRY WX
INDICATED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OFF THE NJ COAST THIS EVENING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. PRESSURE GRADIENT PRODUCED
LOW LEVEL WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KT OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTN...WITH
MUCH OF THIS MOMENTUM REACHING THE WATERS. WINDS HAVE BACKED TO THE
NW...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS STILL OCCURRING OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS/MOUTH OF THE BAY. OBSERVED GUSTS OVER ALL OTHER WATERS RANGE
FROM 20-25 KT. WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW...HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND THE GALE WARNINGS THRU 10 PM. SEAS
REMAIN HIGH...AVERAGING 8-10 FT. WAVES AVG 4 TO 6 FT...HIGHEST IN
THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN SLIGHTLY AS
IT DEPARTS THE COAST THIS EVENING. WINDS BACK TO THE NW AND
DECREASE AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES. GALE WARNINGS WILL BE REPLACED
BY SCA HEADLINES...LIKELY RUNNING THRU MIDNIGHT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE
THRU THE OVERNIGHT...FALLING BELOW 5 FT FIRST IN THE SRN WATERS BY
EARLY THURS MORNING AND IN THE NRN WATERS THURS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE WATERS THURS MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
IS POSSIBLE THURS NIGHT WITH NWLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT
OVER THE BAY AND AROUND 20 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
RESPOND...BUILDING TO 4-6 FT...HIGHEST 20 NM OUT.
THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS FRI THRU THE
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN SUB SCA CONDITIONS. THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES THE WATERS SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES REMAIN 1.5 TO 2 FT OVER THE LOWER BAY THIS
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...DEPARTURES GENERALLY AOB 1 FT. WINDS WILL
BACK AROUND TO THE NW AND DECREASE THRU EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL
ALLOW DEPARTURES TO DROP OFF. ADDITIONAL HEADLINES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED ATTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ634-650-652-
     654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/JAO
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...JDM/SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270228
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
928 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE
AREA TONIGHT. A SECONDARY LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...AND SLIDES OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC LOW PRESSURE NOW CENTERED OFF CAPE COD
CONTINUING TO MOVE RAPIDLY NE. WV IMAG SHOW THE DRY SLOT MOVING
OFFSHORE WITH MORE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STARTING TO MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST. OVERALL THE ENTIRE AREA IS IN FOR A FEW HOURS OF
RATHER QUIET WEATHER. A FEW SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING NEAR
FREDERICKSBURG AND NEAR EMPORIA MOVING EAST. THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP
WAS STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NC AND EXTENDED BACK INTO
MIDDLE TENN. THIS PRECIP IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER WAVE
WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS VA AND NORTHERN NC EARLY THURSDAY. THE
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AND BEST LIFT SUGGESTS THE HIGHEST POPS WILL
BE FROM THE NC/VA BORDER NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL VA AND VA EASTERN
SHORE INCLUDING SOUTHEAST VA. P-TYPES COULD BE A LITTLE
TRICKY...BUT GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES EXPECT MOSTLY RAIN
WITH A LITTLE MIX OF SNOW. MID LEVELS ARE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
DENDRITIC GROWTH, BUT MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL MELT TO RAIN BEFORE
REACHING THE GROUND. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS
WHERE PRECIP RATES INCREASE. DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION DUE
TO THE LOW LEVELS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING AND MIX WITH RAIN.

SOME GUIDANCE HAS ACTUALLY WARMED TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO OVERNIGHT
AND HAVE ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS UP BASED ON THIS TREND, BUT
OVERALL LOW TO MID 30S STILL LOOKS GOOD. FOR THURSDAY MAINLY
CLOUDY IN THE MORNING WITH A FEW RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLY MIXED WITH
SOME SNOW/EARLY AFTN WITH TMPS IN THE M30S- TO AROUND 40 F...THEN
BCMG PT SUNNY LATE AFTN AS TMPS SLOWLY RISE INTO THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY A QUIET PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ESE FROM THE MID
MS VALLEY THU NIGHT AND BECOMES CENTERED ACRS THE AREA FRI/FRI
NIGHT. SFC HIGH THEN SHIFTS FARTHER SE AND OFF THE SE COAST BY
SAT. WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT...WITH SOME INCREASE
IN MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS FRI NIGHT/SAT (ESPECIALLY ACRS THE NORTHERN
1/2 OF THE CWA). THIS AS FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS AND A WARM FRONT
LIFTS N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW
AVG THU NIGHT/FRI... WITH LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S AND HIGHS
GENLY ONLY 40-45 F ON FRI. CHILLY AGAIN FRI NIGHT...BUT TEMPS
MODERATE A BIT ON SAT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SSW. STILL
A BIT BELOW AVG WITH HIGHS 50-55 F CENTRAL AND SOUTH AND IN THE
UPPER 40S NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT-SUN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
THRU THE REGION. SLY FLOW AND INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL
RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS SUN...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S. THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUN
NIGHT...CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA MON. FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED TO BE
DRY OVER THE REGION...EXCEPT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS AND ERN VA PIEDMONT...CLOSEST TO BEST MOISTURE. TEMPS
MON WARM INTO THE MID 60S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
MON NIGHT...LOCATING OVER NEW ENGLAND TUES AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES OVER THE LOCAL AREA...SETTING UP AN IN-SITU CAD WEDGE OVER
THE REGION...WITH NELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. HAVE INTRODUCED LIGHT OVERRUNNING
PRECIP MON NIGHT AND TUES. TUES HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S NW TO
MID 50S SE. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WEDS AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. HIGHS WEDS IN THE MID-UPPER
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO QUICKLY MOVE NE TONIGHT...CURRENTLY
POSITIONED OFF THE NJ COAST. CONDS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AS WINDS
BACK TO THE N/NW...WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS/SPRINKLES REMAINING
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AKQ CWA. WENT CLOSE TO THE NAM MOS
FOR CIGS OVERNIGHT MAINTAINING GENERALLY MVFR CIGS. WINDS WILL
RELAX OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER UP THE NORTHEAST COAST.

A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE LGT
PCPN RIC/PHF AND ORF AFT 12/14Z WHERE IT IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR.
MVFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN IS EXPECTED. RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW AT
TIMES WHICH COULD RESULT IN BRIEF IFR VIS...ESPECIALLY AT RIC.

OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS IMPROVE THURSDAY AFTN WITH VFR AND DRY WX
INDICATED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OFF THE NJ COAST THIS EVENING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. PRESSURE GRADIENT PRODUCED
LOW LEVEL WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KT OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTN...WITH
MUCH OF THIS MOMENTUM REACHING THE WATERS. WINDS HAVE BACKED TO THE
NW...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS STILL OCCURRING OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS/MOUTH OF THE BAY. OBSERVED GUSTS OVER ALL OTHER WATERS RANGE
FROM 20-25 KT. WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW...HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND THE GALE WARNINGS THRU 10 PM. SEAS
REMAIN HIGH...AVERAGING 8-10 FT. WAVES AVG 4 TO 6 FT...HIGHEST IN
THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN SLIGHTLY AS
IT DEPARTS THE COAST THIS EVENING. WINDS BACK TO THE NW AND
DECREASE AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES. GALE WARNINGS WILL BE REPLACED
BY SCA HEADLINES...LIKELY RUNNING THRU MIDNIGHT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE
THRU THE OVERNIGHT...FALLING BELOW 5 FT FIRST IN THE SRN WATERS BY
EARLY THURS MORNING AND IN THE NRN WATERS THURS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE WATERS THURS MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
IS POSSIBLE THURS NIGHT WITH NWLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT
OVER THE BAY AND AROUND 20 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
RESPOND...BUILDING TO 4-6 FT...HIGHEST 20 NM OUT.
THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS FRI THRU THE
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN SUB SCA CONDITIONS. THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES THE WATERS SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES REMAIN 1.5 TO 2 FT OVER THE LOWER BAY THIS
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...DEPARTURES GENERALLY AOB 1 FT. WINDS WILL
BACK AROUND TO THE NW AND DECREASE THRU EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL
ALLOW DEPARTURES TO DROP OFF. ADDITIONAL HEADLINES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED ATTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ634-650-652-
     654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/JAO
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...JDM/SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270228
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
928 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE
AREA TONIGHT. A SECONDARY LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...AND SLIDES OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC LOW PRESSURE NOW CENTERED OFF CAPE COD
CONTINUING TO MOVE RAPIDLY NE. WV IMAG SHOW THE DRY SLOT MOVING
OFFSHORE WITH MORE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STARTING TO MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST. OVERALL THE ENTIRE AREA IS IN FOR A FEW HOURS OF
RATHER QUIET WEATHER. A FEW SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING NEAR
FREDERICKSBURG AND NEAR EMPORIA MOVING EAST. THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP
WAS STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NC AND EXTENDED BACK INTO
MIDDLE TENN. THIS PRECIP IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER WAVE
WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS VA AND NORTHERN NC EARLY THURSDAY. THE
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AND BEST LIFT SUGGESTS THE HIGHEST POPS WILL
BE FROM THE NC/VA BORDER NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL VA AND VA EASTERN
SHORE INCLUDING SOUTHEAST VA. P-TYPES COULD BE A LITTLE
TRICKY...BUT GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES EXPECT MOSTLY RAIN
WITH A LITTLE MIX OF SNOW. MID LEVELS ARE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
DENDRITIC GROWTH, BUT MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL MELT TO RAIN BEFORE
REACHING THE GROUND. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS
WHERE PRECIP RATES INCREASE. DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION DUE
TO THE LOW LEVELS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING AND MIX WITH RAIN.

SOME GUIDANCE HAS ACTUALLY WARMED TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO OVERNIGHT
AND HAVE ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS UP BASED ON THIS TREND, BUT
OVERALL LOW TO MID 30S STILL LOOKS GOOD. FOR THURSDAY MAINLY
CLOUDY IN THE MORNING WITH A FEW RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLY MIXED WITH
SOME SNOW/EARLY AFTN WITH TMPS IN THE M30S- TO AROUND 40 F...THEN
BCMG PT SUNNY LATE AFTN AS TMPS SLOWLY RISE INTO THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY A QUIET PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ESE FROM THE MID
MS VALLEY THU NIGHT AND BECOMES CENTERED ACRS THE AREA FRI/FRI
NIGHT. SFC HIGH THEN SHIFTS FARTHER SE AND OFF THE SE COAST BY
SAT. WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT...WITH SOME INCREASE
IN MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS FRI NIGHT/SAT (ESPECIALLY ACRS THE NORTHERN
1/2 OF THE CWA). THIS AS FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS AND A WARM FRONT
LIFTS N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW
AVG THU NIGHT/FRI... WITH LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S AND HIGHS
GENLY ONLY 40-45 F ON FRI. CHILLY AGAIN FRI NIGHT...BUT TEMPS
MODERATE A BIT ON SAT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SSW. STILL
A BIT BELOW AVG WITH HIGHS 50-55 F CENTRAL AND SOUTH AND IN THE
UPPER 40S NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT-SUN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
THRU THE REGION. SLY FLOW AND INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL
RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS SUN...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S. THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUN
NIGHT...CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA MON. FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED TO BE
DRY OVER THE REGION...EXCEPT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS AND ERN VA PIEDMONT...CLOSEST TO BEST MOISTURE. TEMPS
MON WARM INTO THE MID 60S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
MON NIGHT...LOCATING OVER NEW ENGLAND TUES AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES OVER THE LOCAL AREA...SETTING UP AN IN-SITU CAD WEDGE OVER
THE REGION...WITH NELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. HAVE INTRODUCED LIGHT OVERRUNNING
PRECIP MON NIGHT AND TUES. TUES HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S NW TO
MID 50S SE. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WEDS AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. HIGHS WEDS IN THE MID-UPPER
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO QUICKLY MOVE NE TONIGHT...CURRENTLY
POSITIONED OFF THE NJ COAST. CONDS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AS WINDS
BACK TO THE N/NW...WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS/SPRINKLES REMAINING
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AKQ CWA. WENT CLOSE TO THE NAM MOS
FOR CIGS OVERNIGHT MAINTAINING GENERALLY MVFR CIGS. WINDS WILL
RELAX OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER UP THE NORTHEAST COAST.

A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE LGT
PCPN RIC/PHF AND ORF AFT 12/14Z WHERE IT IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR.
MVFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN IS EXPECTED. RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW AT
TIMES WHICH COULD RESULT IN BRIEF IFR VIS...ESPECIALLY AT RIC.

OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS IMPROVE THURSDAY AFTN WITH VFR AND DRY WX
INDICATED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OFF THE NJ COAST THIS EVENING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. PRESSURE GRADIENT PRODUCED
LOW LEVEL WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KT OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTN...WITH
MUCH OF THIS MOMENTUM REACHING THE WATERS. WINDS HAVE BACKED TO THE
NW...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS STILL OCCURRING OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS/MOUTH OF THE BAY. OBSERVED GUSTS OVER ALL OTHER WATERS RANGE
FROM 20-25 KT. WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW...HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND THE GALE WARNINGS THRU 10 PM. SEAS
REMAIN HIGH...AVERAGING 8-10 FT. WAVES AVG 4 TO 6 FT...HIGHEST IN
THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN SLIGHTLY AS
IT DEPARTS THE COAST THIS EVENING. WINDS BACK TO THE NW AND
DECREASE AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES. GALE WARNINGS WILL BE REPLACED
BY SCA HEADLINES...LIKELY RUNNING THRU MIDNIGHT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE
THRU THE OVERNIGHT...FALLING BELOW 5 FT FIRST IN THE SRN WATERS BY
EARLY THURS MORNING AND IN THE NRN WATERS THURS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE WATERS THURS MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
IS POSSIBLE THURS NIGHT WITH NWLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT
OVER THE BAY AND AROUND 20 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
RESPOND...BUILDING TO 4-6 FT...HIGHEST 20 NM OUT.
THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS FRI THRU THE
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN SUB SCA CONDITIONS. THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES THE WATERS SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES REMAIN 1.5 TO 2 FT OVER THE LOWER BAY THIS
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...DEPARTURES GENERALLY AOB 1 FT. WINDS WILL
BACK AROUND TO THE NW AND DECREASE THRU EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL
ALLOW DEPARTURES TO DROP OFF. ADDITIONAL HEADLINES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED ATTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ634-650-652-
     654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/JAO
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...JDM/SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270021
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
721 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE
AREA TONIGHT. A SECONDARY LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...AND SLIDES OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC LOW PRESSURE NOW CENTERED OFF THE
DELMARVA...AND RAPIDLY PUSHING FARTHER NE. PRECIP IS BEGINNING TO
TAPER OFF OVER MUCH OF THE REGION AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN FROM
THE SW. HOWEVER...EXPECT A 1-2 HR BURST OF MIXED PRECIP RAIN/SLEET
OR SNOW/SLEET ACRS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND ERN VA THROUGH 00Z. IMPACT-
WISE THIS WILL NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING BUT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW/SLEET COULD BRIEFLY
ACCUMULATE ON THE GRASS. AS SFC TEMPS FALL INTO THE MID 30S ACRS
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND ERN VA (WILL KEEP PTYPE ALL RAIN FOR
NORFOLK/VA BEACH AND NE NC).

LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MODELS THAT
SUGGEST SEVERAL HRS OF "NON EVENTFUL" CONDITIONS FROM LATE EVENING THRU
ERLY MORNING HRS. AFTER ABOUT 07Z OR SO...NEXT CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM
(CURRENTLY OVER THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEY)...WILL DIVE ESE AND
APPROACH SW VA. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS FOR THIS IMPULSE AFTR
09Z...AFFECTING THE REGION PRIMARILY FROM 09Z-17Z OR SO. LIFT
LOOKS IMPRESSIVE ENOUGH TO BUMP POPS UP TO 60-70% FOR MOST OF THE
CWA. THERMAL PROFILES AND TIME OF DAY SUGGESTS SNOW SHWRS (NRN
CNTYS)...RAIN/SNOW SHWR MIX NRTH OF VA/NC LINE TO SAY I64 ALTHOUGH
COULD BECOME ALL SNOW FOR A FEW HRS IF PRECIP COMES DOWN FAST
ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER). HAVE ADDED SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACRS MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA. FOR NOW...KEPT IT ALL RAIN FOR NORFOLK/VA
BEACH/NE NC. S/W TRACKS MOVES OFF THE COAST BY LATE IN THE DAY.
MAINLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING/EARLY AFTN WITH TMPS IN THE M30S- TO
AROUND 40 F...THEN BCMG PT SUNNY LATE AFTN AS TMPS SLOWLY RISE
INTO THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY A QUIET PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ESE FROM THE MID
MS VALLEY THU NIGHT AND BECOMES CENTERED ACRS THE AREA FRI/FRI
NIGHT. SFC HIGH THEN SHIFTS FARTHER SE AND OFF THE SE COAST BY
SAT. WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT...WITH SOME INCREASE
IN MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS FRI NIGHT/SAT (ESPECIALLY ACRS THE NORTHERN
1/2 OF THE CWA). THIS AS FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS AND A WARM FRONT
LIFTS N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW
AVG THU NIGHT/FRI... WITH LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S AND HIGHS
GENLY ONLY 40-45 F ON FRI. CHILLY AGAIN FRI NIGHT...BUT TEMPS
MODERATE A BIT ON SAT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SSW. STILL
A BIT BELOW AVG WITH HIGHS 50-55 F CENTRAL AND SOUTH AND IN THE
UPPER 40S NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT-SUN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
THRU THE REGION. SLY FLOW AND INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL
RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS SUN...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S. THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUN
NIGHT...CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA MON. FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED TO BE
DRY OVER THE REGION...EXCEPT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS AND ERN VA PIEDMONT...CLOSEST TO BEST MOISTURE. TEMPS
MON WARM INTO THE MID 60S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
MON NIGHT...LOCATING OVER NEW ENGLAND TUES AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES OVER THE LOCAL AREA...SETTING UP AN IN-SITU CAD WEDGE OVER
THE REGION...WITH NELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. HAVE INTRODUCED LIGHT OVERRUNNING
PRECIP MON NIGHT AND TUES. TUES HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S NW TO
MID 50S SE. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WEDS AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. HIGHS WEDS IN THE MID-UPPER
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO QUICKLY MOVE NE TONIGHT...CURRENTLY
POSITIONED OFF THE NJ COAST. CONDS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AS WINDS
BACK TO THE N/NW...WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS/SPRINKLES REMAINING
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AKQ CWA. WENT CLOSE TO THE NAM MOS
FOR CIGS OVERNIGHT MAINTAINING GENERALLY MVFR CIGS. WINDS WILL
RELAX OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER UP THE NORTHEAST COAST.

A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE LGT
PCPN RIC/PHF AND ORF AFT 12/14Z WHERE IT IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR.
MVFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN IS EXPECTED. RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW AT
TIMES WHICH COULD RESULT IN BRIEF IFR VIS...ESPECIALLY AT RIC.

OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS IMPROVE THURSDAY AFTN WITH VFR AND DRY WX
INDICATED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OFF THE NJ COAST THIS EVENING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. PRESSURE GRADIENT PRODUCED
LOW LEVEL WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KT OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTN...WITH
MUCH OF THIS MOMENTUM REACHING THE WATERS. WINDS HAVE BACKED TO THE
NW...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS STILL OCCURRING OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS/MOUTH OF THE BAY. OBSERVED GUSTS OVER ALL OTHER WATERS RANGE
FROM 20-25 KT. WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW...HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND THE GALE WARNINGS THRU 10 PM. SEAS
REMAIN HIGH...AVERAGING 8-10 FT. WAVES AVG 4 TO 6 FT...HIGHEST IN
THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN SLIGHTLY AS
IT DEPARTS THE COAST THIS EVENING. WINDS BACK TO THE NW AND
DECREASE AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES. GALE WARNINGS WILL BE REPLACED
BY SCA HEADLINES...LIKELY RUNNING THRU MIDNIGHT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE
THRU THE OVERNIGHT...FALLING BELOW 5 FT FIRST IN THE SRN WATERS BY
EARLY THURS MORNING AND IN THE NRN WATERS THURS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE WATERS THURS MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
IS POSSIBLE THURS NIGHT WITH NWLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT
OVER THE BAY AND AROUND 20 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
RESPOND...BUILDING TO 4-6 FT...HIGHEST 20 NM OUT.
THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS FRI THRU THE
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN SUB SCA CONDITIONS. THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES THE WATERS SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES REMAIN 1.5 TO 2 FT OVER THE LOWER BAY THIS
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...DEPARTURES GENERALLY AOB 1 FT. WINDS WILL
BACK AROUND TO THE NW AND DECREASE THRU EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL
ALLOW DEPARTURES TO DROP OFF. ADDITIONAL HEADLINES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED ATTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ634-650-652-
     654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...JDM/SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270021
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
721 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE
AREA TONIGHT. A SECONDARY LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...AND SLIDES OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC LOW PRESSURE NOW CENTERED OFF THE
DELMARVA...AND RAPIDLY PUSHING FARTHER NE. PRECIP IS BEGINNING TO
TAPER OFF OVER MUCH OF THE REGION AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN FROM
THE SW. HOWEVER...EXPECT A 1-2 HR BURST OF MIXED PRECIP RAIN/SLEET
OR SNOW/SLEET ACRS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND ERN VA THROUGH 00Z. IMPACT-
WISE THIS WILL NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING BUT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW/SLEET COULD BRIEFLY
ACCUMULATE ON THE GRASS. AS SFC TEMPS FALL INTO THE MID 30S ACRS
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND ERN VA (WILL KEEP PTYPE ALL RAIN FOR
NORFOLK/VA BEACH AND NE NC).

LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MODELS THAT
SUGGEST SEVERAL HRS OF "NON EVENTFUL" CONDITIONS FROM LATE EVENING THRU
ERLY MORNING HRS. AFTER ABOUT 07Z OR SO...NEXT CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM
(CURRENTLY OVER THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEY)...WILL DIVE ESE AND
APPROACH SW VA. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS FOR THIS IMPULSE AFTR
09Z...AFFECTING THE REGION PRIMARILY FROM 09Z-17Z OR SO. LIFT
LOOKS IMPRESSIVE ENOUGH TO BUMP POPS UP TO 60-70% FOR MOST OF THE
CWA. THERMAL PROFILES AND TIME OF DAY SUGGESTS SNOW SHWRS (NRN
CNTYS)...RAIN/SNOW SHWR MIX NRTH OF VA/NC LINE TO SAY I64 ALTHOUGH
COULD BECOME ALL SNOW FOR A FEW HRS IF PRECIP COMES DOWN FAST
ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER). HAVE ADDED SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACRS MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA. FOR NOW...KEPT IT ALL RAIN FOR NORFOLK/VA
BEACH/NE NC. S/W TRACKS MOVES OFF THE COAST BY LATE IN THE DAY.
MAINLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING/EARLY AFTN WITH TMPS IN THE M30S- TO
AROUND 40 F...THEN BCMG PT SUNNY LATE AFTN AS TMPS SLOWLY RISE
INTO THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY A QUIET PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ESE FROM THE MID
MS VALLEY THU NIGHT AND BECOMES CENTERED ACRS THE AREA FRI/FRI
NIGHT. SFC HIGH THEN SHIFTS FARTHER SE AND OFF THE SE COAST BY
SAT. WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT...WITH SOME INCREASE
IN MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS FRI NIGHT/SAT (ESPECIALLY ACRS THE NORTHERN
1/2 OF THE CWA). THIS AS FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS AND A WARM FRONT
LIFTS N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW
AVG THU NIGHT/FRI... WITH LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S AND HIGHS
GENLY ONLY 40-45 F ON FRI. CHILLY AGAIN FRI NIGHT...BUT TEMPS
MODERATE A BIT ON SAT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SSW. STILL
A BIT BELOW AVG WITH HIGHS 50-55 F CENTRAL AND SOUTH AND IN THE
UPPER 40S NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT-SUN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
THRU THE REGION. SLY FLOW AND INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL
RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS SUN...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S. THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUN
NIGHT...CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA MON. FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED TO BE
DRY OVER THE REGION...EXCEPT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS AND ERN VA PIEDMONT...CLOSEST TO BEST MOISTURE. TEMPS
MON WARM INTO THE MID 60S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
MON NIGHT...LOCATING OVER NEW ENGLAND TUES AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES OVER THE LOCAL AREA...SETTING UP AN IN-SITU CAD WEDGE OVER
THE REGION...WITH NELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. HAVE INTRODUCED LIGHT OVERRUNNING
PRECIP MON NIGHT AND TUES. TUES HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S NW TO
MID 50S SE. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WEDS AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. HIGHS WEDS IN THE MID-UPPER
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO QUICKLY MOVE NE TONIGHT...CURRENTLY
POSITIONED OFF THE NJ COAST. CONDS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AS WINDS
BACK TO THE N/NW...WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS/SPRINKLES REMAINING
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AKQ CWA. WENT CLOSE TO THE NAM MOS
FOR CIGS OVERNIGHT MAINTAINING GENERALLY MVFR CIGS. WINDS WILL
RELAX OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER UP THE NORTHEAST COAST.

A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE LGT
PCPN RIC/PHF AND ORF AFT 12/14Z WHERE IT IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR.
MVFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN IS EXPECTED. RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW AT
TIMES WHICH COULD RESULT IN BRIEF IFR VIS...ESPECIALLY AT RIC.

OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS IMPROVE THURSDAY AFTN WITH VFR AND DRY WX
INDICATED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OFF THE NJ COAST THIS EVENING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. PRESSURE GRADIENT PRODUCED
LOW LEVEL WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KT OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTN...WITH
MUCH OF THIS MOMENTUM REACHING THE WATERS. WINDS HAVE BACKED TO THE
NW...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS STILL OCCURRING OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS/MOUTH OF THE BAY. OBSERVED GUSTS OVER ALL OTHER WATERS RANGE
FROM 20-25 KT. WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW...HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND THE GALE WARNINGS THRU 10 PM. SEAS
REMAIN HIGH...AVERAGING 8-10 FT. WAVES AVG 4 TO 6 FT...HIGHEST IN
THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN SLIGHTLY AS
IT DEPARTS THE COAST THIS EVENING. WINDS BACK TO THE NW AND
DECREASE AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES. GALE WARNINGS WILL BE REPLACED
BY SCA HEADLINES...LIKELY RUNNING THRU MIDNIGHT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE
THRU THE OVERNIGHT...FALLING BELOW 5 FT FIRST IN THE SRN WATERS BY
EARLY THURS MORNING AND IN THE NRN WATERS THURS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE WATERS THURS MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
IS POSSIBLE THURS NIGHT WITH NWLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT
OVER THE BAY AND AROUND 20 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
RESPOND...BUILDING TO 4-6 FT...HIGHEST 20 NM OUT.
THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS FRI THRU THE
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN SUB SCA CONDITIONS. THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES THE WATERS SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES REMAIN 1.5 TO 2 FT OVER THE LOWER BAY THIS
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...DEPARTURES GENERALLY AOB 1 FT. WINDS WILL
BACK AROUND TO THE NW AND DECREASE THRU EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL
ALLOW DEPARTURES TO DROP OFF. ADDITIONAL HEADLINES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED ATTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ634-650-652-
     654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...JDM/SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270021
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
721 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE
AREA TONIGHT. A SECONDARY LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...AND SLIDES OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC LOW PRESSURE NOW CENTERED OFF THE
DELMARVA...AND RAPIDLY PUSHING FARTHER NE. PRECIP IS BEGINNING TO
TAPER OFF OVER MUCH OF THE REGION AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN FROM
THE SW. HOWEVER...EXPECT A 1-2 HR BURST OF MIXED PRECIP RAIN/SLEET
OR SNOW/SLEET ACRS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND ERN VA THROUGH 00Z. IMPACT-
WISE THIS WILL NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING BUT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW/SLEET COULD BRIEFLY
ACCUMULATE ON THE GRASS. AS SFC TEMPS FALL INTO THE MID 30S ACRS
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND ERN VA (WILL KEEP PTYPE ALL RAIN FOR
NORFOLK/VA BEACH AND NE NC).

LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MODELS THAT
SUGGEST SEVERAL HRS OF "NON EVENTFUL" CONDITIONS FROM LATE EVENING THRU
ERLY MORNING HRS. AFTER ABOUT 07Z OR SO...NEXT CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM
(CURRENTLY OVER THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEY)...WILL DIVE ESE AND
APPROACH SW VA. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS FOR THIS IMPULSE AFTR
09Z...AFFECTING THE REGION PRIMARILY FROM 09Z-17Z OR SO. LIFT
LOOKS IMPRESSIVE ENOUGH TO BUMP POPS UP TO 60-70% FOR MOST OF THE
CWA. THERMAL PROFILES AND TIME OF DAY SUGGESTS SNOW SHWRS (NRN
CNTYS)...RAIN/SNOW SHWR MIX NRTH OF VA/NC LINE TO SAY I64 ALTHOUGH
COULD BECOME ALL SNOW FOR A FEW HRS IF PRECIP COMES DOWN FAST
ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER). HAVE ADDED SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACRS MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA. FOR NOW...KEPT IT ALL RAIN FOR NORFOLK/VA
BEACH/NE NC. S/W TRACKS MOVES OFF THE COAST BY LATE IN THE DAY.
MAINLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING/EARLY AFTN WITH TMPS IN THE M30S- TO
AROUND 40 F...THEN BCMG PT SUNNY LATE AFTN AS TMPS SLOWLY RISE
INTO THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY A QUIET PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ESE FROM THE MID
MS VALLEY THU NIGHT AND BECOMES CENTERED ACRS THE AREA FRI/FRI
NIGHT. SFC HIGH THEN SHIFTS FARTHER SE AND OFF THE SE COAST BY
SAT. WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT...WITH SOME INCREASE
IN MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS FRI NIGHT/SAT (ESPECIALLY ACRS THE NORTHERN
1/2 OF THE CWA). THIS AS FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS AND A WARM FRONT
LIFTS N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW
AVG THU NIGHT/FRI... WITH LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S AND HIGHS
GENLY ONLY 40-45 F ON FRI. CHILLY AGAIN FRI NIGHT...BUT TEMPS
MODERATE A BIT ON SAT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SSW. STILL
A BIT BELOW AVG WITH HIGHS 50-55 F CENTRAL AND SOUTH AND IN THE
UPPER 40S NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT-SUN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
THRU THE REGION. SLY FLOW AND INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL
RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS SUN...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S. THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUN
NIGHT...CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA MON. FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED TO BE
DRY OVER THE REGION...EXCEPT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS AND ERN VA PIEDMONT...CLOSEST TO BEST MOISTURE. TEMPS
MON WARM INTO THE MID 60S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
MON NIGHT...LOCATING OVER NEW ENGLAND TUES AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES OVER THE LOCAL AREA...SETTING UP AN IN-SITU CAD WEDGE OVER
THE REGION...WITH NELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. HAVE INTRODUCED LIGHT OVERRUNNING
PRECIP MON NIGHT AND TUES. TUES HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S NW TO
MID 50S SE. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WEDS AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. HIGHS WEDS IN THE MID-UPPER
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO QUICKLY MOVE NE TONIGHT...CURRENTLY
POSITIONED OFF THE NJ COAST. CONDS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AS WINDS
BACK TO THE N/NW...WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS/SPRINKLES REMAINING
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AKQ CWA. WENT CLOSE TO THE NAM MOS
FOR CIGS OVERNIGHT MAINTAINING GENERALLY MVFR CIGS. WINDS WILL
RELAX OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER UP THE NORTHEAST COAST.

A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE LGT
PCPN RIC/PHF AND ORF AFT 12/14Z WHERE IT IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR.
MVFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN IS EXPECTED. RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW AT
TIMES WHICH COULD RESULT IN BRIEF IFR VIS...ESPECIALLY AT RIC.

OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS IMPROVE THURSDAY AFTN WITH VFR AND DRY WX
INDICATED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OFF THE NJ COAST THIS EVENING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. PRESSURE GRADIENT PRODUCED
LOW LEVEL WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KT OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTN...WITH
MUCH OF THIS MOMENTUM REACHING THE WATERS. WINDS HAVE BACKED TO THE
NW...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS STILL OCCURRING OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS/MOUTH OF THE BAY. OBSERVED GUSTS OVER ALL OTHER WATERS RANGE
FROM 20-25 KT. WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW...HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND THE GALE WARNINGS THRU 10 PM. SEAS
REMAIN HIGH...AVERAGING 8-10 FT. WAVES AVG 4 TO 6 FT...HIGHEST IN
THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN SLIGHTLY AS
IT DEPARTS THE COAST THIS EVENING. WINDS BACK TO THE NW AND
DECREASE AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES. GALE WARNINGS WILL BE REPLACED
BY SCA HEADLINES...LIKELY RUNNING THRU MIDNIGHT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE
THRU THE OVERNIGHT...FALLING BELOW 5 FT FIRST IN THE SRN WATERS BY
EARLY THURS MORNING AND IN THE NRN WATERS THURS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE WATERS THURS MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
IS POSSIBLE THURS NIGHT WITH NWLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT
OVER THE BAY AND AROUND 20 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
RESPOND...BUILDING TO 4-6 FT...HIGHEST 20 NM OUT.
THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS FRI THRU THE
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN SUB SCA CONDITIONS. THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES THE WATERS SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES REMAIN 1.5 TO 2 FT OVER THE LOWER BAY THIS
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...DEPARTURES GENERALLY AOB 1 FT. WINDS WILL
BACK AROUND TO THE NW AND DECREASE THRU EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL
ALLOW DEPARTURES TO DROP OFF. ADDITIONAL HEADLINES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED ATTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ634-650-652-
     654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...JDM/SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270021
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
721 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE
AREA TONIGHT. A SECONDARY LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...AND SLIDES OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC LOW PRESSURE NOW CENTERED OFF THE
DELMARVA...AND RAPIDLY PUSHING FARTHER NE. PRECIP IS BEGINNING TO
TAPER OFF OVER MUCH OF THE REGION AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN FROM
THE SW. HOWEVER...EXPECT A 1-2 HR BURST OF MIXED PRECIP RAIN/SLEET
OR SNOW/SLEET ACRS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND ERN VA THROUGH 00Z. IMPACT-
WISE THIS WILL NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING BUT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW/SLEET COULD BRIEFLY
ACCUMULATE ON THE GRASS. AS SFC TEMPS FALL INTO THE MID 30S ACRS
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND ERN VA (WILL KEEP PTYPE ALL RAIN FOR
NORFOLK/VA BEACH AND NE NC).

LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MODELS THAT
SUGGEST SEVERAL HRS OF "NON EVENTFUL" CONDITIONS FROM LATE EVENING THRU
ERLY MORNING HRS. AFTER ABOUT 07Z OR SO...NEXT CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM
(CURRENTLY OVER THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEY)...WILL DIVE ESE AND
APPROACH SW VA. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS FOR THIS IMPULSE AFTR
09Z...AFFECTING THE REGION PRIMARILY FROM 09Z-17Z OR SO. LIFT
LOOKS IMPRESSIVE ENOUGH TO BUMP POPS UP TO 60-70% FOR MOST OF THE
CWA. THERMAL PROFILES AND TIME OF DAY SUGGESTS SNOW SHWRS (NRN
CNTYS)...RAIN/SNOW SHWR MIX NRTH OF VA/NC LINE TO SAY I64 ALTHOUGH
COULD BECOME ALL SNOW FOR A FEW HRS IF PRECIP COMES DOWN FAST
ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER). HAVE ADDED SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACRS MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA. FOR NOW...KEPT IT ALL RAIN FOR NORFOLK/VA
BEACH/NE NC. S/W TRACKS MOVES OFF THE COAST BY LATE IN THE DAY.
MAINLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING/EARLY AFTN WITH TMPS IN THE M30S- TO
AROUND 40 F...THEN BCMG PT SUNNY LATE AFTN AS TMPS SLOWLY RISE
INTO THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY A QUIET PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ESE FROM THE MID
MS VALLEY THU NIGHT AND BECOMES CENTERED ACRS THE AREA FRI/FRI
NIGHT. SFC HIGH THEN SHIFTS FARTHER SE AND OFF THE SE COAST BY
SAT. WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT...WITH SOME INCREASE
IN MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS FRI NIGHT/SAT (ESPECIALLY ACRS THE NORTHERN
1/2 OF THE CWA). THIS AS FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS AND A WARM FRONT
LIFTS N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW
AVG THU NIGHT/FRI... WITH LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S AND HIGHS
GENLY ONLY 40-45 F ON FRI. CHILLY AGAIN FRI NIGHT...BUT TEMPS
MODERATE A BIT ON SAT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SSW. STILL
A BIT BELOW AVG WITH HIGHS 50-55 F CENTRAL AND SOUTH AND IN THE
UPPER 40S NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT-SUN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
THRU THE REGION. SLY FLOW AND INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL
RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS SUN...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S. THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUN
NIGHT...CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA MON. FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED TO BE
DRY OVER THE REGION...EXCEPT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS AND ERN VA PIEDMONT...CLOSEST TO BEST MOISTURE. TEMPS
MON WARM INTO THE MID 60S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
MON NIGHT...LOCATING OVER NEW ENGLAND TUES AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES OVER THE LOCAL AREA...SETTING UP AN IN-SITU CAD WEDGE OVER
THE REGION...WITH NELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. HAVE INTRODUCED LIGHT OVERRUNNING
PRECIP MON NIGHT AND TUES. TUES HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S NW TO
MID 50S SE. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WEDS AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. HIGHS WEDS IN THE MID-UPPER
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO QUICKLY MOVE NE TONIGHT...CURRENTLY
POSITIONED OFF THE NJ COAST. CONDS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AS WINDS
BACK TO THE N/NW...WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS/SPRINKLES REMAINING
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AKQ CWA. WENT CLOSE TO THE NAM MOS
FOR CIGS OVERNIGHT MAINTAINING GENERALLY MVFR CIGS. WINDS WILL
RELAX OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER UP THE NORTHEAST COAST.

A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE LGT
PCPN RIC/PHF AND ORF AFT 12/14Z WHERE IT IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR.
MVFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN IS EXPECTED. RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW AT
TIMES WHICH COULD RESULT IN BRIEF IFR VIS...ESPECIALLY AT RIC.

OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS IMPROVE THURSDAY AFTN WITH VFR AND DRY WX
INDICATED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OFF THE NJ COAST THIS EVENING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. PRESSURE GRADIENT PRODUCED
LOW LEVEL WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KT OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTN...WITH
MUCH OF THIS MOMENTUM REACHING THE WATERS. WINDS HAVE BACKED TO THE
NW...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS STILL OCCURRING OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS/MOUTH OF THE BAY. OBSERVED GUSTS OVER ALL OTHER WATERS RANGE
FROM 20-25 KT. WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW...HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND THE GALE WARNINGS THRU 10 PM. SEAS
REMAIN HIGH...AVERAGING 8-10 FT. WAVES AVG 4 TO 6 FT...HIGHEST IN
THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN SLIGHTLY AS
IT DEPARTS THE COAST THIS EVENING. WINDS BACK TO THE NW AND
DECREASE AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES. GALE WARNINGS WILL BE REPLACED
BY SCA HEADLINES...LIKELY RUNNING THRU MIDNIGHT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE
THRU THE OVERNIGHT...FALLING BELOW 5 FT FIRST IN THE SRN WATERS BY
EARLY THURS MORNING AND IN THE NRN WATERS THURS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE WATERS THURS MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
IS POSSIBLE THURS NIGHT WITH NWLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT
OVER THE BAY AND AROUND 20 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
RESPOND...BUILDING TO 4-6 FT...HIGHEST 20 NM OUT.
THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS FRI THRU THE
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN SUB SCA CONDITIONS. THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES THE WATERS SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES REMAIN 1.5 TO 2 FT OVER THE LOWER BAY THIS
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...DEPARTURES GENERALLY AOB 1 FT. WINDS WILL
BACK AROUND TO THE NW AND DECREASE THRU EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL
ALLOW DEPARTURES TO DROP OFF. ADDITIONAL HEADLINES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED ATTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ634-650-652-
     654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...JDM/SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS61 KRNK 270008
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
708 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE PRECIPITATION
TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM
OF SNOW WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND RAIN TO THE EAST. UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL THEN CONTINUE ALONG THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
RIDGE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...BRINGING
QUIET WEATHER TO THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BACK TO
THE FORECAST AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND HEAD INTO THE NEW
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 650 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

ALL PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE CWA WITH SKIES AT LEAST
PARTIALLY CLEARING AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING ABOVE THE MELTING
SNOW COVER. CLOUD COVER STILL EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK IN PER
DISCUSSION BELOW AS CLIPPER APPROACHES.


PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

AFTER A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THANKS TO THE DIGGING UPPER
TROF...MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME SYNOPTIC
PRECIPITATION TO SLIDE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND UP INTO THE
PIEDMONT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW IN ADDITION TO UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT WEST OF THE RIDGE. PTYPE WILL BE MOSTLY SNOW WEST OF
THE RIDGE WITH RAIN TO THE EAST. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN
RETAINED FOR THE NC MOUNTAINS INTO THE GRAYSON HIGHLANDS/MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE REGION OF VA AND WRN GREENBRIER IN WV WHERE UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT OF SYNOPTIC PRECIP LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD ADD UP TO
ADVSY CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS HIGH WILL BRING US QUIET WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND
BEFORE IT SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST AND SLY RETURN FLOW SETS UP A
WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. MAIN THRUST OF ANY LIFT AND MOISTURE
CAPABLE OF SQUEEZING OUT PRECIPITATION REMAINS OFF TO OUR WEST AHEAD
OF NEXT WEAK APPROACHING FRONT. THIS SHOULD KEEP US DRY INTO THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER FLORIDA LIMITING
GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE FROM ENTERING THE REGION SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL ALSO ALLOW THE REGION TO WARM TO 10F ABOVE
NORMAL. MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT...A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL
TRY AND PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH A STRONG AND BROAD RIDGE ACROSS
THE SOUTH...EXPECTING LATER MODEL RUNS TO DELAY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
UNTIL SOMETIME TUESDAY. SINCE THE ECM/GFS HAS THIS FRONT ENTERING
THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS FOR
RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. ALSO HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS TUESDAY FOR
A POSSIBLE FRONTAL PASSAGE OR FOR THE FRONT STALLING IN THE REGION.
EITHER WAY AND/OR EITHER DAY...TEMPERATURES AND THICKNESSES ARE WARM
TO KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION FALLING AS RAIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVER NEW ENGLAND FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND REMAIN
IN THE AREA TROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. EVEN THOUGH THIS
WEDGE IS STRONG (1035MB)...MODELS REMAINING WARM AND CLOSE TO
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 655 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

VARIABLE BUT GENERALLY POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH
MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND SOME IFR FOG IN THE WEST. RESTRICTIONS WILL
LOWER OVERNIGHT AS A CLIPPER MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AFTER 06Z THU FOR
BLF/LWB/BCB...MVFR AT ROA/LYH/DAN MORE TOWARDS SUNRISE. THIS
CLIPPER IS ALSO A FAST MOVER AND CONDITIONS LIKELY TO IMPROVE
DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE CLIPPER WILL
BECOME GUSTY...UP TO 30KTS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE AFTERNOON.

ALSO A CONCERN BETWEEN SYSTEMS ARE AREAS OF FOG...POSSIBLY BECOMING
DENSE AS WARM AIR GLIDES OVER COLD WET GROUND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS RANGED FROM ABOUT 0.50 TO 1.25
INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT WITH A FEW GAGES PICKING UP IN EXCESS
OF 1.50 INCHES MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NEW RIVER AND UPPER
ROANOKE AND DAN RIVER BASINS. THE LESSER AMOUNTS WERE GENERALLY
OBSERVED OVER THE WESTERN BASINS INCLUDING THE GREENBRIER AND
UPPER JAMES. RADAR PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES EXTREMELY CONTAMINATED
BY BRIGHT BAND EFFECTS. RUNOFF CAUSING SMALLER STREAMS TO SHOW
SOME NICE RISES BUT ALL WELL WITHIN BANKS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WAS MALFUNCTIONING
AGAIN. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER BUT THE REPAIR MAY NOT BE UNTIL
MONDAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLYH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STAFF WHEN THE
CONTROL TOWER IS OPEN...OTHERWISE THE VISIBILITY WILL BE MISSING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR VAZ007-009-015.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR WVZ508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS/PC
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...PC/RCS
HYDROLOGY...PC
EQUIPMENT...AMS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 270008
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
708 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE PRECIPITATION
TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM
OF SNOW WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND RAIN TO THE EAST. UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL THEN CONTINUE ALONG THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
RIDGE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...BRINGING
QUIET WEATHER TO THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BACK TO
THE FORECAST AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND HEAD INTO THE NEW
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 650 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

ALL PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE CWA WITH SKIES AT LEAST
PARTIALLY CLEARING AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING ABOVE THE MELTING
SNOW COVER. CLOUD COVER STILL EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK IN PER
DISCUSSION BELOW AS CLIPPER APPROACHES.


PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

AFTER A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THANKS TO THE DIGGING UPPER
TROF...MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME SYNOPTIC
PRECIPITATION TO SLIDE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND UP INTO THE
PIEDMONT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW IN ADDITION TO UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT WEST OF THE RIDGE. PTYPE WILL BE MOSTLY SNOW WEST OF
THE RIDGE WITH RAIN TO THE EAST. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN
RETAINED FOR THE NC MOUNTAINS INTO THE GRAYSON HIGHLANDS/MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE REGION OF VA AND WRN GREENBRIER IN WV WHERE UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT OF SYNOPTIC PRECIP LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD ADD UP TO
ADVSY CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS HIGH WILL BRING US QUIET WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND
BEFORE IT SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST AND SLY RETURN FLOW SETS UP A
WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. MAIN THRUST OF ANY LIFT AND MOISTURE
CAPABLE OF SQUEEZING OUT PRECIPITATION REMAINS OFF TO OUR WEST AHEAD
OF NEXT WEAK APPROACHING FRONT. THIS SHOULD KEEP US DRY INTO THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER FLORIDA LIMITING
GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE FROM ENTERING THE REGION SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL ALSO ALLOW THE REGION TO WARM TO 10F ABOVE
NORMAL. MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT...A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL
TRY AND PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH A STRONG AND BROAD RIDGE ACROSS
THE SOUTH...EXPECTING LATER MODEL RUNS TO DELAY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
UNTIL SOMETIME TUESDAY. SINCE THE ECM/GFS HAS THIS FRONT ENTERING
THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS FOR
RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. ALSO HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS TUESDAY FOR
A POSSIBLE FRONTAL PASSAGE OR FOR THE FRONT STALLING IN THE REGION.
EITHER WAY AND/OR EITHER DAY...TEMPERATURES AND THICKNESSES ARE WARM
TO KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION FALLING AS RAIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVER NEW ENGLAND FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND REMAIN
IN THE AREA TROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. EVEN THOUGH THIS
WEDGE IS STRONG (1035MB)...MODELS REMAINING WARM AND CLOSE TO
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 655 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

VARIABLE BUT GENERALLY POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH
MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND SOME IFR FOG IN THE WEST. RESTRICTIONS WILL
LOWER OVERNIGHT AS A CLIPPER MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AFTER 06Z THU FOR
BLF/LWB/BCB...MVFR AT ROA/LYH/DAN MORE TOWARDS SUNRISE. THIS
CLIPPER IS ALSO A FAST MOVER AND CONDITIONS LIKELY TO IMPROVE
DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE CLIPPER WILL
BECOME GUSTY...UP TO 30KTS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE AFTERNOON.

ALSO A CONCERN BETWEEN SYSTEMS ARE AREAS OF FOG...POSSIBLY BECOMING
DENSE AS WARM AIR GLIDES OVER COLD WET GROUND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS RANGED FROM ABOUT 0.50 TO 1.25
INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT WITH A FEW GAGES PICKING UP IN EXCESS
OF 1.50 INCHES MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NEW RIVER AND UPPER
ROANOKE AND DAN RIVER BASINS. THE LESSER AMOUNTS WERE GENERALLY
OBSERVED OVER THE WESTERN BASINS INCLUDING THE GREENBRIER AND
UPPER JAMES. RADAR PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES EXTREMELY CONTAMINATED
BY BRIGHT BAND EFFECTS. RUNOFF CAUSING SMALLER STREAMS TO SHOW
SOME NICE RISES BUT ALL WELL WITHIN BANKS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WAS MALFUNCTIONING
AGAIN. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER BUT THE REPAIR MAY NOT BE UNTIL
MONDAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLYH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STAFF WHEN THE
CONTROL TOWER IS OPEN...OTHERWISE THE VISIBILITY WILL BE MISSING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR VAZ007-009-015.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR WVZ508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS/PC
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...PC/RCS
HYDROLOGY...PC
EQUIPMENT...AMS



000
FXUS61 KLWX 262326 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
626 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT. AN
UPPER- LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY RAPIDLY TO THE
NORTHEAST EARLY THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE LOW...SUBSIDENCE IS
PUNCHING IN CAUSING A RAPID END TO THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION. NE-MD WILL HOLD ONTO LIGHT SNOW...MIXED WITH RAIN
IN A FEW LOCATIONS BUT ALL OF THIS WILL END WITHIN THE NEXT HALF
HOUR TO HOUR. ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL HAS ENDED AND ALL WINTER
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES HAVE TERMINATED. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S FOR THE FIRST PART OF THIS EVENING BUT WILL
FALL BELOW FREEZING OVER MUCH OF THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...AS
SKIES CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST.

TWO CONCERNS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...FIRST WILL BE RE-FREEZING
OF WET ROADWAYS LEADING TO SLICK SPOTS. WILL CONSIDER AN SPS FOR
THIS POTENTIAL. SECOND...CLEAR SKIES AND SNOWPACK WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO PATCHY DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
HAVE UPDATED THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
WILL MONITOR FOG COVERAGE TO SEE IF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS
WARRANTED.

ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THIS MAY TRIGGER SOME RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS INTO
CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW
ACCUMULATION WILL BE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT. EVEN ACROSS THESE AREAS ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE LIGHT.

THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. A STRAY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD...BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY AND
CHILLY WITH SOME SUNSHINE. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S AND
LOWER 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S IN CENTRAL
VIRGINIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST OVER THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY. NWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE UPSLOPE SNOW WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT INTO LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF AS
THE SATURATED LAYER DECREASES. SHOULD JUST BE WAVE CLOUDS EAST OF
THERE SINCE THE UPR TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY
EVENING. NWLY FLOW GUSTS PERIODICALLY TO 20 TO 25 MPH THURSDAY
NIGHT IN COLD AIR ADVECTION...THEN MIXES DOWN AGAIN ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY. GRADIENT SLACKENS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH CENTER CROSSES THE AREA WITH CLEAR AND
CALM AND MIN TEMPS BACK BELOW FREEZING. PLACES WITH A REMAINING
SNOWPACK OF MORE THAN A FEW INCHES (HIGHER ELEVATIONS) WILL SEE A
MARKED DROP IN TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLY INTO THE TEENS. LOW 30S
ALONG THE SHORE LINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND SETTING UP A SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL UNDER THIS
REGIME. A FRONT WILL BUMP INTO THIS HIGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND THEN
STALL NEAR THE AREA NEXT WEEK. IT LOOKS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN SHOWERS
ALONG THIS FRONT MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE BY TO THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT GETS IT
MAY NOT GET MUCH COOLER. MODELS DISAGREE ON THIS PLACEMENT SO
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AT ALL TERMINAL SITES THE
REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG
OVERNIGHT.

AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY. VFR
CONDITIONS WITH NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THURSDAY.

NWLY FLOW GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS (VFR CONDS). HIGH OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CONTINUED
VFR.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE WEEKEND W/ WIND BECOMING S AROUND 10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA CRITERIA. SURGE OF NWLY FLOW THURSDAY EVENING WITH 20 TO
25 KT GUSTS OVER MOST OF THE WATERS (SCA FOR ALL BUT UPPER TIDAL
POTOMAC...PATAPSCO AND PATUXENT)...THEN ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH SUNSET AS GRADIENT SLACKENS. HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SLY FLOW BEGINNING SATURDAY
MORNING.

SOUTHERLY FLOW TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A
FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR EARLIEST MEASURABLE SNOW ALREADY PASSED A FEW WEEKS
AGO...BUT BELOW IS A LIST OF DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RECORDS
SPECIFIC TO THE DATE OF NOVEMBER 26TH. THE SNOWFALL REPORTED AT
DULLES SO FAR TODAY HAS BEEN 1.6 INCHES /AS OF 3 PM/ AND THIS
BREAKS THE OLD RECORD BELOW OF 1.1 INCHES SET IN 1978. DCA/BWI
RECORDS ARE SAFE.

DCA   2.2" (1898)
BWI   4.5" (1898)
IAD   1.1" (1978)

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ530>534-
     536>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THURSDAY TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-536-537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ535-
     538-542.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...KRW/DFH
MARINE...KRW/DFH
CLIMATE...KRW/DFH







000
FXUS61 KLWX 262326 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
626 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT. AN
UPPER- LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY RAPIDLY TO THE
NORTHEAST EARLY THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE LOW...SUBSIDENCE IS
PUNCHING IN CAUSING A RAPID END TO THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION. NE-MD WILL HOLD ONTO LIGHT SNOW...MIXED WITH RAIN
IN A FEW LOCATIONS BUT ALL OF THIS WILL END WITHIN THE NEXT HALF
HOUR TO HOUR. ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL HAS ENDED AND ALL WINTER
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES HAVE TERMINATED. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S FOR THE FIRST PART OF THIS EVENING BUT WILL
FALL BELOW FREEZING OVER MUCH OF THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...AS
SKIES CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST.

TWO CONCERNS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...FIRST WILL BE RE-FREEZING
OF WET ROADWAYS LEADING TO SLICK SPOTS. WILL CONSIDER AN SPS FOR
THIS POTENTIAL. SECOND...CLEAR SKIES AND SNOWPACK WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO PATCHY DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
HAVE UPDATED THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
WILL MONITOR FOG COVERAGE TO SEE IF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS
WARRANTED.

ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THIS MAY TRIGGER SOME RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS INTO
CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW
ACCUMULATION WILL BE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT. EVEN ACROSS THESE AREAS ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE LIGHT.

THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. A STRAY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD...BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY AND
CHILLY WITH SOME SUNSHINE. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S AND
LOWER 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S IN CENTRAL
VIRGINIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST OVER THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY. NWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE UPSLOPE SNOW WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT INTO LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF AS
THE SATURATED LAYER DECREASES. SHOULD JUST BE WAVE CLOUDS EAST OF
THERE SINCE THE UPR TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY
EVENING. NWLY FLOW GUSTS PERIODICALLY TO 20 TO 25 MPH THURSDAY
NIGHT IN COLD AIR ADVECTION...THEN MIXES DOWN AGAIN ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY. GRADIENT SLACKENS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH CENTER CROSSES THE AREA WITH CLEAR AND
CALM AND MIN TEMPS BACK BELOW FREEZING. PLACES WITH A REMAINING
SNOWPACK OF MORE THAN A FEW INCHES (HIGHER ELEVATIONS) WILL SEE A
MARKED DROP IN TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLY INTO THE TEENS. LOW 30S
ALONG THE SHORE LINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND SETTING UP A SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL UNDER THIS
REGIME. A FRONT WILL BUMP INTO THIS HIGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND THEN
STALL NEAR THE AREA NEXT WEEK. IT LOOKS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN SHOWERS
ALONG THIS FRONT MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE BY TO THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT GETS IT
MAY NOT GET MUCH COOLER. MODELS DISAGREE ON THIS PLACEMENT SO
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AT ALL TERMINAL SITES THE
REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG
OVERNIGHT.

AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY. VFR
CONDITIONS WITH NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THURSDAY.

NWLY FLOW GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS (VFR CONDS). HIGH OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CONTINUED
VFR.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE WEEKEND W/ WIND BECOMING S AROUND 10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA CRITERIA. SURGE OF NWLY FLOW THURSDAY EVENING WITH 20 TO
25 KT GUSTS OVER MOST OF THE WATERS (SCA FOR ALL BUT UPPER TIDAL
POTOMAC...PATAPSCO AND PATUXENT)...THEN ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH SUNSET AS GRADIENT SLACKENS. HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SLY FLOW BEGINNING SATURDAY
MORNING.

SOUTHERLY FLOW TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A
FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR EARLIEST MEASURABLE SNOW ALREADY PASSED A FEW WEEKS
AGO...BUT BELOW IS A LIST OF DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RECORDS
SPECIFIC TO THE DATE OF NOVEMBER 26TH. THE SNOWFALL REPORTED AT
DULLES SO FAR TODAY HAS BEEN 1.6 INCHES /AS OF 3 PM/ AND THIS
BREAKS THE OLD RECORD BELOW OF 1.1 INCHES SET IN 1978. DCA/BWI
RECORDS ARE SAFE.

DCA   2.2" (1898)
BWI   4.5" (1898)
IAD   1.1" (1978)

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ530>534-
     536>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THURSDAY TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-536-537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ535-
     538-542.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...KRW/DFH
MARINE...KRW/DFH
CLIMATE...KRW/DFH








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 262100
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
400 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE
AREA TONIGHT. A SECONDARY LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...AND SLIDES OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC LOW PRESSURE NOW CENTERED OFF THE
DELMARVA...AND RAPIDLY PUSHING FARTHER NE. PRECIP IS BEGINNING TO
TAPER OFF OVER MUCH OF THE REGION AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN FROM
THE SW. HOWEVER...EXPECT A 1-2 HR BURST OF MIXED PRECIP RAIN/SLEET
OR SNOW/SLEET ACRS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND ERN VA THROUGH 00Z. IMPACT-
WISE THIS WILL NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING BUT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW/SLEET COULD BRIEFLY
ACCUMULATE ON THE GRASS. AS SFC TEMPS FALL INTO THE MID 30S ACRS
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND ERN VA (WILL KEEP PTYPE ALL RAIN FOR
NORFOLK/VA BEACH AND NE NC).

LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MODELS THAT
SUGGEST SEVERAL HRS OF "NON EVENTFUL" CONDITIONS FROM LATE EVENING THRU
ERLY MORNING HRS. AFTER ABOUT 07Z OR SO...NEXT CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM
(CURRENTLY OVER THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEY)...WILL DIVE ESE AND
APPROACH SW VA. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS FOR THIS IMPULSE AFTR
09Z...AFFECTING THE REGION PRIMARILY FROM 09Z-17Z OR SO. LIFT
LOOKS IMPRESSIVE ENOUGH TO BUMP POPS UP TO 60-70% FOR MOST OF THE
CWA. THERMAL PROFILES AND TIME OF DAY SUGGESTS SNOW SHWRS (NRN
CNTYS)...RAIN/SNOW SHWR MIX NRTH OF VA/NC LINE TO SAY I64 ALTHOUGH
COULD BECOME ALL SNOW FOR A FEW HRS IF PRECIP COMES DOWN FAST
ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER). HAVE ADDED SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACRS MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA. FOR NOW...KEPT IT ALL RAIN FOR NORFOLK/VA
BEACH/NE NC. S/W TRACKS MOVES OFF THE COAST BY LATE IN THE DAY.
MAINLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING/EARLY AFTN WITH TMPS IN THE M30S- TO
AROUND 40 F...THEN BCMG PT SUNNY LATE AFTN AS TMPS SLOWLY RISE
INTO THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY A QUIET PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ESE FROM THE MID
MS VALLEY THU NIGHT AND BECOMES CENTERED ACRS THE AREA FRI/FRI
NIGHT. SFC HIGH THEN SHIFTS FARTHER SE AND OFF THE SE COAST BY
SAT. WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT...WITH SOME INCREASE
IN MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS FRI NIGHT/SAT (ESPECIALLY ACRS THE NORTHERN
1/2 OF THE CWA). THIS AS FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS AND A WARM FRONT
LIFTS N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW
AVG THU NIGHT/FRI... WITH LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S AND HIGHS
GENLY ONLY 40-45 F ON FRI. CHILLY AGAIN FRI NIGHT...BUT TEMPS
MODERATE A BIT ON SAT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SSW. STILL
A BIT BELOW AVG WITH HIGHS 50-55 F CENTRAL AND SOUTH AND IN THE
UPPER 40S NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT-SUN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
THRU THE REGION. SLY FLOW AND INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL
RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS SUN...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S. THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUN
NIGHT...CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA MON. FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED TO BE
DRY OVER THE REGION...EXCEPT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS AND ERN VA PIEDMONT...CLOSEST TO BEST MOISTURE. TEMPS
MON WARM INTO THE MID 60S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
MON NIGHT...LOCATING OVER NEW ENGLAND TUES AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES OVER THE LOCAL AREA...SETTING UP AN IN-SITU CAD WEDGE OVER
THE REGION...WITH NELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. HAVE INTRODUCED LIGHT OVERRUNNING
PRECIP MON NIGHT AND TUES. TUES HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S NW TO
MID 50S SE. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WEDS AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. HIGHS WEDS IN THE MID-UPPER
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE VA/NC COAST WILL MOVE QUICKLY TO THE N/NE
DURING THE AFTN. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WAS AFFECTING ALL OF
THE TAF SITES ALONG WITH FREQUENT IFR CONDITIONS.  N WIND GUSTS TO
30 KNOTS AND HIGHER AT ORF AND 20 TO 25 KNOTS ELSEWHERE WILL ALSO
DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING. CONDS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AS WINDS BACK TO
THE N/NW. WENT CLOSE TO THE NAM MOS FOR CIGS OVERNIGHT MAINTAINING
GENERALLY MVFR CIGS.

A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE LGT
PCPN RIC/PHF AND ORF AFT 12/14Z WHERE IT IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR.
MVFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN IS EXPECTED. RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW AT
TIMES WHICH COULD RESULT IN BRIEF IFR CONDS...ESPECIALLY AT RIC.

OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS IMPROVE THURSDAY AFTN WITH VFR AND DRY WX
INDICATED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NW MONDAY BUT AT THIS TIME NO SGFNT PCPN IS FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED JUST OFF THE MD ERN SHORE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. PRESSURE GRADIENT
HAS PRODUCED LOW LEVEL WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KT OVER THE WATERS...WITH
MUCH OF THIS MOMENTUM REACHING THE WATERS. WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
BACK TO THE NW...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS STILL OCCURRING OVER THE
WATERS. THE EXCEPTION IS THE ERN VA RIVERS...WHERE OBSERVED GUSTS
STILL RANGE FROM 20-25 KT. WITH THE LOW STILL LIFTING/DEEPENING
OFFSHORE...AND MODELS BACKING THE WINDS TOO FAST...HAVE OPTED TO
EXTEND THE GALE WARNINGS THRU 7 PM. SEAS REMAIN HIGH...AVERAGING
8-10 FT. WAVES AVG 4 TO 6 FT...HIGHEST IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN SLIGHTLY AS IT DEPARTS THE COAST THIS
EVENING. WINDS BACK TO THE NW AND DECREASE AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES.
GALE WARNINGS WILL BE REPLACED BY SCA HEADLINES...LIKELY RUNNING
THRU THIS EVENING/MIDNIGHT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THRU THE
OVERNIGHT...FALLING BELOW 5 FT FIRST IN THE SRN WATERS BY EARLY
THURS MORNING AND IN THE NRN WATERS THURS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE WATERS THURS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS IS
POSSIBLE THURS NIGHT WITH NWLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT OVER THE
BAY AND AROUND 20 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
RESPOND...BUILDING TO 4-6 FT...HIGHEST 20 NM OUT. THEREAFTER...HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS FRI THRU THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN
SUB SCA CONDITIONS. THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS SUN NIGHT
INTO MON.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES REMAIN 1.5 TO 2 FT OVER THE LOWER BAY THIS
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...DEPARTURES GENERALLY AOB 1 FT. WINDS WILL
BACK AROUND TO THE NW AND DECREASE THRU EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL
ALLOW DEPARTURES TO DROP OFF. ADDITIONAL HEADLINES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED ATTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ630>634-654-
     656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...JDM/SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS61 KRNK 262050
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
350 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE PRECIPITATION
TO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND RAIN TO THE EAST. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL THEN CONTINUE ALONG THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE RIDGE
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...BRINGING
QUIET WEATHER TO THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BACK TO
THE FORECAST AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND HEAD INTO THE NEW
WORKWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

RADAR SHOWS JUST SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
OF VA WITH THE LATEST SATELLITE PICS SHOWING SOME SUN BREAKING
OUT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE RIDGE. BELIEVE THINGS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN QUIET THROUGH THIS EVENING AND ALL ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
DROPPED THROUGH THE NEAR TERM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

AFTER A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THANKS TO THE DIGGING UPPER
TROF...MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME SYNOPTIC
PRECIPITATION TO SLIDE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND UP INTO THE
PIEDMONT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW IN ADDITION TO UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT WEST OF THE RIDGE. PTYPE WILL BE MOSTLY SNOW WEST OF
THE RIDGE WITH RAIN TO THE EAST. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN
RETAINED FOR THE NC MOUNTAINS INTO THE GRAYSON HIGHLANDS/MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE REGION OF VA AND WRN GREENBRIER IN WV WHERE UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT OF SYNOPTIC PRECIP LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD ADD UP TO
ADVSY CRITERIA.

UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS HIGH WILL BRING US QUIET WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND
BEFORE IT SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST AND SLY RETURN FLOW SETS UP A
WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. MAIN THRUST OF ANY LIFT AND MOISTURE
CAPABLE OF SQUEEZING OUT PRECIPITATION REMAINS OFF TO OUR WEST AHEAD
OF NEXT WEAK APPROACHING FRONT. THIS SHOULD KEEP US DRY INTO THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER FLORIDA LIMITING
GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE FROM ENTERING THE REGION SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL ALSO ALLOW THE REGION TO WARM TO 10F ABOVE
NORMAL. MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT...A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL
TRY AND PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH A STRONG AND BROAD RIDGE ACROSS
THE SOUTH...EXPECTING LATER MODEL RUNS TO DELAY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
UNTIL SOMETIME TUESDAY. SINCE THE ECM/GFS HAS THIS FRONT ENTERING
THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS FOR
RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. ALSO HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS TUESDAY FOR
A POSSIBLE FRONTAL PASSAGE OR FOR THE FRONT STALLING IN THE REGION.
EITHER WAY AND/OR EITHER DAY...TEMPERATURES AND THICKNESSES ARE WARM
TO KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION FALLING AS RAIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVER NEW ENGLAND FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND REMAIN
IN THE AREA TROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. EVEN THOUGH THIS
WEDGE IS STRONG (1035MB)...MODELS REMAINING WARM AND CLOSE TO
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1255 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

POOR FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
COAST KEEPS LOW CIGS AND VSBYS IN PLACE. BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION
SHIELD STARTING TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...ONLY IMPROVING A CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. PRECIPITATION ALSO STARTING TO CHANGE BACK OVER TO RAIN
AS TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING FOR SITES WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3KFT SHOULD SEE MOSTLY A WET SNOW
BEFORE ENDING ALTOGETHER THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
RAIN OVER THE PIEDMONT.

FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT AS A CLIPPER MOVES OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AFTER 06Z WED
FOR BLF/LWB/BCB...MVFR AT ROA/LYH/DAN MORE TOWARDS SUNRISE. THIS
CLIPPER IS ALSO A FAST MOVER AND CONDITIONS LIKELY TO IMPROVE DURING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE CLIPPER WILL BECOME
GUSTY...UP TO 30KTS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE AFTERNOON.

ALSO A CONCERN BETWEEN SYSTEMS ARE AREAS OF FOG...POSSIBLY BECOMING
DENSE AS WARM AIR GLIDES OVER COLD WET GROUND.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WAS MALFUNCTIONING
AGAIN. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER BUT THE REPAIR MAY NOT BE UNTIL
MONDAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLYH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STAFF WHEN THE
CONTROL TOWER IS OPEN...OTHERWISE THE VISIBILITY WILL BE MISSING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR VAZ007-009-015.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR WVZ508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...RCS
EQUIPMENT...AMS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 262050
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
350 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE PRECIPITATION
TO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND RAIN TO THE EAST. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL THEN CONTINUE ALONG THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE RIDGE
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...BRINGING
QUIET WEATHER TO THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BACK TO
THE FORECAST AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND HEAD INTO THE NEW
WORKWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

RADAR SHOWS JUST SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
OF VA WITH THE LATEST SATELLITE PICS SHOWING SOME SUN BREAKING
OUT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE RIDGE. BELIEVE THINGS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN QUIET THROUGH THIS EVENING AND ALL ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
DROPPED THROUGH THE NEAR TERM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

AFTER A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THANKS TO THE DIGGING UPPER
TROF...MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME SYNOPTIC
PRECIPITATION TO SLIDE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND UP INTO THE
PIEDMONT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW IN ADDITION TO UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT WEST OF THE RIDGE. PTYPE WILL BE MOSTLY SNOW WEST OF
THE RIDGE WITH RAIN TO THE EAST. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN
RETAINED FOR THE NC MOUNTAINS INTO THE GRAYSON HIGHLANDS/MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE REGION OF VA AND WRN GREENBRIER IN WV WHERE UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT OF SYNOPTIC PRECIP LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD ADD UP TO
ADVSY CRITERIA.

UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS HIGH WILL BRING US QUIET WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND
BEFORE IT SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST AND SLY RETURN FLOW SETS UP A
WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. MAIN THRUST OF ANY LIFT AND MOISTURE
CAPABLE OF SQUEEZING OUT PRECIPITATION REMAINS OFF TO OUR WEST AHEAD
OF NEXT WEAK APPROACHING FRONT. THIS SHOULD KEEP US DRY INTO THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER FLORIDA LIMITING
GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE FROM ENTERING THE REGION SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL ALSO ALLOW THE REGION TO WARM TO 10F ABOVE
NORMAL. MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT...A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL
TRY AND PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH A STRONG AND BROAD RIDGE ACROSS
THE SOUTH...EXPECTING LATER MODEL RUNS TO DELAY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
UNTIL SOMETIME TUESDAY. SINCE THE ECM/GFS HAS THIS FRONT ENTERING
THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS FOR
RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. ALSO HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS TUESDAY FOR
A POSSIBLE FRONTAL PASSAGE OR FOR THE FRONT STALLING IN THE REGION.
EITHER WAY AND/OR EITHER DAY...TEMPERATURES AND THICKNESSES ARE WARM
TO KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION FALLING AS RAIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVER NEW ENGLAND FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND REMAIN
IN THE AREA TROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. EVEN THOUGH THIS
WEDGE IS STRONG (1035MB)...MODELS REMAINING WARM AND CLOSE TO
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1255 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

POOR FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
COAST KEEPS LOW CIGS AND VSBYS IN PLACE. BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION
SHIELD STARTING TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...ONLY IMPROVING A CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. PRECIPITATION ALSO STARTING TO CHANGE BACK OVER TO RAIN
AS TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING FOR SITES WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3KFT SHOULD SEE MOSTLY A WET SNOW
BEFORE ENDING ALTOGETHER THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
RAIN OVER THE PIEDMONT.

FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT AS A CLIPPER MOVES OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AFTER 06Z WED
FOR BLF/LWB/BCB...MVFR AT ROA/LYH/DAN MORE TOWARDS SUNRISE. THIS
CLIPPER IS ALSO A FAST MOVER AND CONDITIONS LIKELY TO IMPROVE DURING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE CLIPPER WILL BECOME
GUSTY...UP TO 30KTS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE AFTERNOON.

ALSO A CONCERN BETWEEN SYSTEMS ARE AREAS OF FOG...POSSIBLY BECOMING
DENSE AS WARM AIR GLIDES OVER COLD WET GROUND.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WAS MALFUNCTIONING
AGAIN. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER BUT THE REPAIR MAY NOT BE UNTIL
MONDAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLYH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STAFF WHEN THE
CONTROL TOWER IS OPEN...OTHERWISE THE VISIBILITY WILL BE MISSING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR VAZ007-009-015.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR WVZ508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...RCS
EQUIPMENT...AMS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 262050
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
350 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE PRECIPITATION
TO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND RAIN TO THE EAST. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL THEN CONTINUE ALONG THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE RIDGE
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...BRINGING
QUIET WEATHER TO THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BACK TO
THE FORECAST AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND HEAD INTO THE NEW
WORKWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

RADAR SHOWS JUST SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
OF VA WITH THE LATEST SATELLITE PICS SHOWING SOME SUN BREAKING
OUT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE RIDGE. BELIEVE THINGS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN QUIET THROUGH THIS EVENING AND ALL ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
DROPPED THROUGH THE NEAR TERM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

AFTER A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THANKS TO THE DIGGING UPPER
TROF...MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME SYNOPTIC
PRECIPITATION TO SLIDE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND UP INTO THE
PIEDMONT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW IN ADDITION TO UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT WEST OF THE RIDGE. PTYPE WILL BE MOSTLY SNOW WEST OF
THE RIDGE WITH RAIN TO THE EAST. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN
RETAINED FOR THE NC MOUNTAINS INTO THE GRAYSON HIGHLANDS/MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE REGION OF VA AND WRN GREENBRIER IN WV WHERE UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT OF SYNOPTIC PRECIP LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD ADD UP TO
ADVSY CRITERIA.

UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS HIGH WILL BRING US QUIET WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND
BEFORE IT SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST AND SLY RETURN FLOW SETS UP A
WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. MAIN THRUST OF ANY LIFT AND MOISTURE
CAPABLE OF SQUEEZING OUT PRECIPITATION REMAINS OFF TO OUR WEST AHEAD
OF NEXT WEAK APPROACHING FRONT. THIS SHOULD KEEP US DRY INTO THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER FLORIDA LIMITING
GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE FROM ENTERING THE REGION SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL ALSO ALLOW THE REGION TO WARM TO 10F ABOVE
NORMAL. MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT...A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL
TRY AND PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH A STRONG AND BROAD RIDGE ACROSS
THE SOUTH...EXPECTING LATER MODEL RUNS TO DELAY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
UNTIL SOMETIME TUESDAY. SINCE THE ECM/GFS HAS THIS FRONT ENTERING
THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS FOR
RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. ALSO HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS TUESDAY FOR
A POSSIBLE FRONTAL PASSAGE OR FOR THE FRONT STALLING IN THE REGION.
EITHER WAY AND/OR EITHER DAY...TEMPERATURES AND THICKNESSES ARE WARM
TO KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION FALLING AS RAIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVER NEW ENGLAND FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND REMAIN
IN THE AREA TROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. EVEN THOUGH THIS
WEDGE IS STRONG (1035MB)...MODELS REMAINING WARM AND CLOSE TO
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1255 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

POOR FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
COAST KEEPS LOW CIGS AND VSBYS IN PLACE. BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION
SHIELD STARTING TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...ONLY IMPROVING A CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. PRECIPITATION ALSO STARTING TO CHANGE BACK OVER TO RAIN
AS TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING FOR SITES WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3KFT SHOULD SEE MOSTLY A WET SNOW
BEFORE ENDING ALTOGETHER THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
RAIN OVER THE PIEDMONT.

FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT AS A CLIPPER MOVES OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AFTER 06Z WED
FOR BLF/LWB/BCB...MVFR AT ROA/LYH/DAN MORE TOWARDS SUNRISE. THIS
CLIPPER IS ALSO A FAST MOVER AND CONDITIONS LIKELY TO IMPROVE DURING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE CLIPPER WILL BECOME
GUSTY...UP TO 30KTS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE AFTERNOON.

ALSO A CONCERN BETWEEN SYSTEMS ARE AREAS OF FOG...POSSIBLY BECOMING
DENSE AS WARM AIR GLIDES OVER COLD WET GROUND.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WAS MALFUNCTIONING
AGAIN. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER BUT THE REPAIR MAY NOT BE UNTIL
MONDAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLYH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STAFF WHEN THE
CONTROL TOWER IS OPEN...OTHERWISE THE VISIBILITY WILL BE MISSING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR VAZ007-009-015.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR WVZ508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...RCS
EQUIPMENT...AMS




000
FXUS61 KRNK 262050
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
350 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE PRECIPITATION
TO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND RAIN TO THE EAST. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL THEN CONTINUE ALONG THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE RIDGE
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...BRINGING
QUIET WEATHER TO THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BACK TO
THE FORECAST AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND HEAD INTO THE NEW
WORKWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

RADAR SHOWS JUST SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
OF VA WITH THE LATEST SATELLITE PICS SHOWING SOME SUN BREAKING
OUT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE RIDGE. BELIEVE THINGS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN QUIET THROUGH THIS EVENING AND ALL ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
DROPPED THROUGH THE NEAR TERM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

AFTER A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THANKS TO THE DIGGING UPPER
TROF...MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME SYNOPTIC
PRECIPITATION TO SLIDE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND UP INTO THE
PIEDMONT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW IN ADDITION TO UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT WEST OF THE RIDGE. PTYPE WILL BE MOSTLY SNOW WEST OF
THE RIDGE WITH RAIN TO THE EAST. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN
RETAINED FOR THE NC MOUNTAINS INTO THE GRAYSON HIGHLANDS/MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE REGION OF VA AND WRN GREENBRIER IN WV WHERE UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT OF SYNOPTIC PRECIP LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD ADD UP TO
ADVSY CRITERIA.

UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS HIGH WILL BRING US QUIET WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND
BEFORE IT SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST AND SLY RETURN FLOW SETS UP A
WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. MAIN THRUST OF ANY LIFT AND MOISTURE
CAPABLE OF SQUEEZING OUT PRECIPITATION REMAINS OFF TO OUR WEST AHEAD
OF NEXT WEAK APPROACHING FRONT. THIS SHOULD KEEP US DRY INTO THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER FLORIDA LIMITING
GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE FROM ENTERING THE REGION SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL ALSO ALLOW THE REGION TO WARM TO 10F ABOVE
NORMAL. MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT...A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL
TRY AND PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH A STRONG AND BROAD RIDGE ACROSS
THE SOUTH...EXPECTING LATER MODEL RUNS TO DELAY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
UNTIL SOMETIME TUESDAY. SINCE THE ECM/GFS HAS THIS FRONT ENTERING
THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS FOR
RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. ALSO HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS TUESDAY FOR
A POSSIBLE FRONTAL PASSAGE OR FOR THE FRONT STALLING IN THE REGION.
EITHER WAY AND/OR EITHER DAY...TEMPERATURES AND THICKNESSES ARE WARM
TO KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION FALLING AS RAIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVER NEW ENGLAND FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND REMAIN
IN THE AREA TROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. EVEN THOUGH THIS
WEDGE IS STRONG (1035MB)...MODELS REMAINING WARM AND CLOSE TO
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1255 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

POOR FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
COAST KEEPS LOW CIGS AND VSBYS IN PLACE. BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION
SHIELD STARTING TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...ONLY IMPROVING A CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. PRECIPITATION ALSO STARTING TO CHANGE BACK OVER TO RAIN
AS TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING FOR SITES WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3KFT SHOULD SEE MOSTLY A WET SNOW
BEFORE ENDING ALTOGETHER THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
RAIN OVER THE PIEDMONT.

FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT AS A CLIPPER MOVES OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AFTER 06Z WED
FOR BLF/LWB/BCB...MVFR AT ROA/LYH/DAN MORE TOWARDS SUNRISE. THIS
CLIPPER IS ALSO A FAST MOVER AND CONDITIONS LIKELY TO IMPROVE DURING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE CLIPPER WILL BECOME
GUSTY...UP TO 30KTS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE AFTERNOON.

ALSO A CONCERN BETWEEN SYSTEMS ARE AREAS OF FOG...POSSIBLY BECOMING
DENSE AS WARM AIR GLIDES OVER COLD WET GROUND.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WAS MALFUNCTIONING
AGAIN. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER BUT THE REPAIR MAY NOT BE UNTIL
MONDAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLYH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STAFF WHEN THE
CONTROL TOWER IS OPEN...OTHERWISE THE VISIBILITY WILL BE MISSING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR VAZ007-009-015.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR WVZ508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...RCS
EQUIPMENT...AMS




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